PREDICTION OF DENGUE FEVER EPIDEMIC SPREADING USING DYNAMICS TRANSMISSION VECTOR MODEL

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Retno Widyaningrum

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Increasing number of dengue cases in Surabaya shows that its city has high potential of dengue fever epidemic. Although some policies were designed by Surabaya Health Department, such as fogging and mosquito’s nest eradication, but these efforts still out of target because of inaccurate predictions. Ineffectiveness eradication of dengue fever epidemic is caused by lack of information and knowledge on environmental conditions in Surabaya. Developing spread and prediction system to minimize dengue fever epidemic is necessary to be conducted immediately. Spread and prediction system can improve eradication and prevention accuracy. The transmission dynamics vector simulation will be used as an approach to draw a complex system ofmosquito life cycle in which involve a lot offactors. Dynamics transmission model used to build model in mosquito model (oviposition rate and pre adult mosquito, infected and death cases in dengue fever. The model of mosquito and infected population can represent system. The output of this research is website of spread and prediction system of dengue fever epidemics to predict growth rate of Aedes Aegypti mosquito, infected, and death population because of dengue fever epidemics. The deviation of infected population is 0,519. The model of death cases in dengue fever is less precision with the deviation 1,229. Death cases model need improvement by adding some variables that influence to dengue fever death cases. Spread ofdengue fever prediction will help the government, health department to decide the best policies in minimizing the spread ofdengue fever epidemics.

Permanence for a Delayed Nonautonomous SIR Epidemic Model with Density-Dependent Birth Rate

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Li Yingke

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Based on some well-known SIR models, a revised nonautonomous SIR epidemic model with distributed delay and density-dependent birth rate was considered. Applying some classical analysis techniques for ordinary differential equations and the method proposed by Wang (2002, the threshold value for the permanence and extinction of the model was obtained.

Phenotypic and Genotypic Comparison of Epidemic and Non-Epidemic Strains of Pseudomonas aeruginosa from Individuals with Cystic Fibrosis.

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Jessica Duong

Full Text Available Epidemic strains of Pseudomonas aeruginosa have been found worldwide among the cystic fibrosis (CF patient population. Using pulse-field gel electrophoresis, the Prairie Epidemic Strain (PES has recently been found in one-third of patients attending the Calgary Adult CF Clinic in Canada. Using multi-locus sequence typing, PES isolates from unrelated patients were found to consistently have ST192. Though most patients acquired PES prior to enrolling in the clinic, some patients were observed to experience strain replacement upon transitioning to the clinic whereby local non-epidemic P. aeruginosa isolates were displaced by PES. Here we genotypically and phenotypically compared PES to other P. aeruginosa epidemic strains (OES found around the world as well as local non-epidemic CF P. aeruginosa isolates in order to characterize PES. Since some epidemic strains are associated with worse clinical outcomes, we assessed the pathogenic potential of PES to determine if these isolates are virulent, shared properties with OES, and if its phenotypic properties may offer a competitive advantage in displacing local non-epidemic isolates during strain replacement. As such, we conducted a comparative analysis using fourteen phenotypic traits, including virulence factor production, biofilm formation, planktonic growth, mucoidy, and antibiotic susceptibility to characterize PES, OES, and local non-epidemic isolates. We observed that PES and OES could be differentiated from local non-epidemic isolates based on biofilm growth with PES isolates being more mucoid. Pairwise comparisons indicated that PES produced significantly higher levels of proteases and formed better biofilms than OES but were more susceptible to antibiotic treatment. Amongst five patients experiencing strain replacement, we found that super-infecting PES produced lower levels of proteases and elastases but were more resistant to antibiotics compared to the displaced non-epidemic isolates. This

A class of stochastic delayed SIR epidemic models with generalized nonlinear incidence rate and temporary immunity

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Fan, Kuangang; Zhang, Yan; Gao, Shujing; Wei, Xiang

2017-09-01

A class of SIR epidemic model with generalized nonlinear incidence rate is presented in this paper. Temporary immunity and stochastic perturbation are also considered. The existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution is achieved. Sufficient conditions guaranteeing the extinction and persistence of the epidemic disease are established. Moreover, the threshold behavior is discussed, and the threshold value R0 is obtained. We show that if R0 extinct with probability one, whereas if R0 > 1, then the system remains permanent in the mean.

Bayesian inference in an extended SEIR model with nonparametric disease transmission rate: an application to the Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone.

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Frasso, Gianluca; Lambert, Philippe

2016-10-01

SummaryThe 2014 Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone is analyzed using a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) epidemic compartmental model. The discrete time-stochastic model for the epidemic evolution is coupled to a set of ordinary differential equations describing the dynamics of the expected proportions of subjects in each epidemic state. The unknown parameters are estimated in a Bayesian framework by combining data on the number of new (laboratory confirmed) Ebola cases reported by the Ministry of Health and prior distributions for the transition rates elicited using information collected by the WHO during the follow-up of specific Ebola cases. The time-varying disease transmission rate is modeled in a flexible way using penalized B-splines. Our framework represents a valuable stochastic tool for the study of an epidemic dynamic even when only irregularly observed and possibly aggregated data are available. Simulations and the analysis of the 2014 Sierra Leone Ebola data highlight the merits of the proposed methodology. In particular, the flexible modeling of the disease transmission rate makes the estimation of the effective reproduction number robust to the misspecification of the initial epidemic states and to underreporting of the infectious cases. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Epidemic spread in coupled populations with seasonally varying migration rates

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Muzyczyn, Adam; Shaw, Leah B.

2009-03-01

The H5N1 strain of avian influenza has spread worldwide, and this spread may be due to seasonal migration of birds and mixing of birds from different regions in the wintering grounds. We studied a multipatch model for avian influenza with seasonally varying migration rates. The bird population was divided into two spatially distinct patches, or subpopulations. Within each patch, the disease followed the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model for epidemic spread. Migration rates were varied periodically, with a net flux toward the breeding grounds during the spring and towards the wintering grounds during the fall. The case of two symmetric patches reduced to single-patch SIR dynamics. However, asymmetry in the birth and contact rates in the breeding grounds and wintering grounds led to bifurcations to longer period orbits and chaotic dynamics. We studied the bifurcation structure of the model and the phase relationships between outbreaks in the two patches.

Incidence rates of enterovirus 71 infections in young children during a nationwide epidemic in Taiwan, 2008-09.

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Min-Shi Lee

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Enterovirus 71 (EV71 is causing life-threatening outbreaks in tropical Asia. In Taiwan and other tropical Asian countries, although nationwide EV71 epidemics occur cyclically, age-specific incidence rates of EV71 infections that are critical to estimate disease burden and design vaccine trials are not clear. A nationwide EV71 epidemic occurred in 2008-09 in Taiwan, which provided a unique opportunity to estimate age-specific incidence rates of EV71 infections. STUDY DESIGN: We prospectively recruited 749 healthy neonates and conducted follow-ups from June 2006 to December 2009. Sera were obtained from participants at 0, 6, 12, 24, and 36 months of age for measuring EV71 neutralizing antibody titers. If the participants developed suspected enterovirus illnesses, throat swabs were collected for virus isolation. RESULTS: We detected 28 EV71 infections including 20 symptomatic and 8 asymptomatic infections. Age-specific incidence rates of EV71 infection increased from 1.71 per 100 person-years at 0-6 months of age to 4.09, 5.74, and 4.97 per 100 person-years at 7-12, 13-24, and 25-36 months of age, respectively. Cumulative incidence rate was 15.15 per 100 persons by 36 months of age, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Risk of EV71 infections in Taiwan increased after 6 months of age during EV71 epidemics. The cumulative incidence rate was 15% by 36 months of age, and 29% of EV71 infections were asymptomatic in young children.

Suicide epidemics: the impact of newly emerging methods on overall suicide rates - a time trends study

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Chang Shu-Sen

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The impact of newly emerging, popular suicide methods on overall rates of suicide has not previously been investigated systematically. Understanding these effects may have important implications for public health surveillance. We examine the emergence of three novel methods of suicide by gassing in the 20th and 21st centuries and determine the impact of emerging methods on overall suicide rates. Methods We studied the epidemic rises in domestic coal gas (1919-1935, England and Wales, motor vehicle exhaust gas (1975-1992, England and Wales and barbecue charcoal gas (1999-2006, Taiwan suicide using Poisson and joinpoint regression models. Joinpoint regression uses contiguous linear segments and join points (points at which trends change to describe trends in incidence. Results Epidemic increases in the use of new methods of suicide were generally associated with rises in overall suicide rates of between 23% and 71%. The recent epidemic of barbecue charcoal suicides in Taiwan was associated with the largest rise in overall rates (40-50% annual rise, whereas the smallest rise was seen for car exhaust gassing in England and Wales (7% annual rise. Joinpoint analyses were only feasible for car exhaust and charcoal burning suicides; these suggested an impact of the emergence of car exhaust suicides on overall suicide rates in both sexes in England and Wales. However there was no statistical evidence of a change in the already increasing overall suicide trends when charcoal burning suicides emerged in Taiwan, possibly due to the concurrent economic recession. Conclusions Rapid rises in the use of new sources of gas for suicide were generally associated with increases in overall suicide rates. Suicide prevention strategies should include strengthening local and national surveillance for early detection of novel suicide methods and implementation of effective media guidelines and other appropriate interventions to limit the spread of

From Malthus to Modern Growth: Can Epidemics Explain the Three Regimes?

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Lagerlöf, Nils-Petter

2001-01-01

These are the stylized facts of long-run economic and demographic development, as described by Galor and Weil (AER 1999, 2000): Under an initial Malthusian Regime the growth rates of population and per-capita income are both low. Then follows a Post-Malthusian Regime, with higher growth rates of both population and per-capita income. Finally, the economy transits into a Modern Growth Regime, with falling population growth rates, but accelerated growth rates of per-capita inocme. This paper mo...

Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks.

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Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

2014-06-01

The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The epidemic will survive when q > qc and die when q epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

Modeling age-specific mortality for countries with generalized HIV epidemics.

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David J Sharrow

Full Text Available In a given population the age pattern of mortality is an important determinant of total number of deaths, age structure, and through effects on age structure, the number of births and thereby growth. Good mortality models exist for most populations except those experiencing generalized HIV epidemics and some developing country populations. The large number of deaths concentrated at very young and adult ages in HIV-affected populations produce a unique 'humped' age pattern of mortality that is not reproduced by any existing mortality models. Both burden of disease reporting and population projection methods require age-specific mortality rates to estimate numbers of deaths and produce plausible age structures. For countries with generalized HIV epidemics these estimates should take into account the future trajectory of HIV prevalence and its effects on age-specific mortality. In this paper we present a parsimonious model of age-specific mortality for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics.The model represents a vector of age-specific mortality rates as the weighted sum of three independent age-varying components. We derive the age-varying components from a Singular Value Decomposition of the matrix of age-specific mortality rate schedules. The weights are modeled as a function of HIV prevalence and one of three possible sets of inputs: life expectancy at birth, a measure of child mortality, or child mortality with a measure of adult mortality. We calibrate the model with 320 five-year life tables for each sex from the World Population Prospects 2010 revision that come from the 40 countries of the world that have and are experiencing a generalized HIV epidemic. Cross validation shows that the model is able to outperform several existing model life table systems.We present a flexible, parsimonious model of age-specific mortality for countries with generalized HIV epidemics. Combined with the outputs of existing epidemiological and

Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

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Liu, Meng; Li, Daqing; Qin, Pengju; Liu, Chaoran; Wang, Huijuan; Wang, Feilong

2015-01-01

Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

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Meng Liu

Full Text Available Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

Sickness Absenteeism Rate in Iranian Schools during the 2009 Epidemic of Type a Influenza

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Pourabbasi, Ata; Shirvani, Mahbubeh Ebrahimnegad; Khashayar, Patricia

2012-01-01

Influenza pandemic was a global event in 2009 and intraschool transmission was its main spread method. The present study was designed to evaluate the absenteeism rate during the type A influenza epidemic. Four hundred and eight students from both a guidance school and high school in the Iranian capital were recruited in this retrospective study.…

Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

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Ren, Guangming, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [School of Electronic and Information, Guangdong Polytechnic Normal University, Guangzhou 510665 (China); Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China); Wang, Xingyuan, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China)

2014-06-15

The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q{sub c}. The epidemic will survive when q > q{sub c} and die when q < q{sub c}. These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

2014-01-01

The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q c . The epidemic will survive when q > q c and die when q  c . These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure

Integrated travel network model for studying epidemics: Interplay between journeys and epidemic

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Ruan, Zhongyuan; Wang, Chaoqing; Ming Hui, Pak; Liu, Zonghua

2015-06-01

The ease of travelling between cities has contributed much to globalization. Yet, it poses a threat on epidemic outbreaks. It is of great importance for network science and health control to understand the impact of frequent journeys on epidemics. We stress that a new framework of modelling that takes a traveller’s viewpoint is needed. Such integrated travel network (ITN) model should incorporate the diversity among links as dictated by the distances between cities and different speeds of different modes of transportation, diversity among nodes as dictated by the population and the ease of travelling due to infrastructures and economic development of a city, and round-trip journeys to targeted destinations via the paths of shortest travel times typical of human journeys. An example is constructed for 116 cities in China with populations over one million that are connected by high-speed train services and highways. Epidemic spread on the constructed network is studied. It is revealed both numerically and theoretically that the traveling speed and frequency are important factors of epidemic spreading. Depending on the infection rate, increasing the traveling speed would result in either an enhanced or suppressed epidemic, while increasing the traveling frequency enhances the epidemic spreading.

Epidemic spreading between two coupled subpopulations with inner structures

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Ruan, Zhongyuan; Tang, Ming; Gu, Changgui; Xu, Jinshan

2017-10-01

The structure of underlying contact network and the mobility of agents are two decisive factors for epidemic spreading in reality. Here, we study a model consisting of two coupled subpopulations with intra-structures that emphasizes both the contact structure and the recurrent mobility pattern of individuals simultaneously. We show that the coupling of the two subpopulations (via interconnections between them and round trips of individuals) makes the epidemic threshold in each subnetwork to be the same. Moreover, we find that the interconnection probability between two subpopulations and the travel rate are important factors for spreading dynamics. In particular, as a function of interconnection probability, the epidemic threshold in each subpopulation decreases monotonously, which enhances the risks of an epidemic. While the epidemic threshold displays a non-monotonic variation as travel rate increases. Moreover, the asymptotic infected density as a function of travel rate in each subpopulation behaves differently depending on the interconnection probability.

Dynamical processes and epidemic threshold on nonlinear coupled multiplex networks

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Gao, Chao; Tang, Shaoting; Li, Weihua; Yang, Yaqian; Zheng, Zhiming

2018-04-01

Recently, the interplay between epidemic spreading and awareness diffusion has aroused the interest of many researchers, who have studied models mainly based on linear coupling relations between information and epidemic layers. However, in real-world networks the relation between two layers may be closely correlated with the property of individual nodes and exhibits nonlinear dynamical features. Here we propose a nonlinear coupled information-epidemic model (I-E model) and present a comprehensive analysis in a more generalized scenario where the upload rate differs from node to node, deletion rate varies between susceptible and infected states, and infection rate changes between unaware and aware states. In particular, we develop a theoretical framework of the intra- and inter-layer dynamical processes with a microscopic Markov chain approach (MMCA), and derive an analytic epidemic threshold. Our results suggest that the change of upload and deletion rate has little effect on the diffusion dynamics in the epidemic layer.

GENERAL: Epidemic spreading on networks with vaccination

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Shi, Hong-Jing; Duan, Zhi-Sheng; Chen, Guan-Rong; Li, Rong

2009-08-01

In this paper, a new susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on complex networks with imperfect vaccination is proposed. Two types of epidemic spreading patterns (the recovered individuals have or have not immunity) on scale-free networks are discussed. Both theoretical and numerical analyses are presented. The epidemic thresholds related to the vaccination rate, the vaccination-invalid rate and the vaccination success rate on scale-free networks are demonstrated, showing different results from the reported observations. This reveals that whether or not the epidemic can spread over a network under vaccination control is determined not only by the network structure but also by the medicine's effective duration. Moreover, for a given infective rate, the proportion of individuals to vaccinate can be calculated theoretically for the case that the recovered nodes have immunity. Finally, simulated results are presented to show how to control the disease prevalence.

Environmental Factors Influencing Epidemic Cholera

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Jutla, Antarpreet; Whitcombe, Elizabeth; Hasan, Nur; Haley, Bradd; Akanda, Ali; Huq, Anwar; Alam, Munir; Sack, R. Bradley; Colwell, Rita

2013-01-01

Cholera outbreak following the earthquake of 2010 in Haiti has reaffirmed that the disease is a major public health threat. Vibrio cholerae is autochthonous to aquatic environment, hence, it cannot be eradicated but hydroclimatology-based prediction and prevention is an achievable goal. Using data from the 1800s, we describe uniqueness in seasonality and mechanism of occurrence of cholera in the epidemic regions of Asia and Latin America. Epidemic regions are located near regional rivers and are characterized by sporadic outbreaks, which are likely to be initiated during episodes of prevailing warm air temperature with low river flows, creating favorable environmental conditions for growth of cholera bacteria. Heavy rainfall, through inundation or breakdown of sanitary infrastructure, accelerates interaction between contaminated water and human activities, resulting in an epidemic. This causal mechanism is markedly different from endemic cholera where tidal intrusion of seawater carrying bacteria from estuary to inland regions, results in outbreaks. PMID:23897993

Epidemic Spreading with Heterogeneous Awareness on Human Networks

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Yanling Lu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The spontaneous awareness behavioral responses of individuals have a significant impact on epidemic spreading. In this paper, a modified Susceptible-Alert-Infected-Susceptible (SAIS epidemic model with heterogeneous awareness is presented to study epidemic spreading in human networks and the impact of heterogeneous awareness on epidemic dynamics. In this model, when susceptible individuals receive awareness information about the presence of epidemic from their infected neighbor nodes, they will become alert individuals with heterogeneous awareness rate. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations show that heterogeneous awareness can enhance the epidemic threshold with certain conditions and reduce the scale of virus outbreaks compared with no awareness. What is more, for the same awareness parameter, it also shows that heterogeneous awareness can slow effectively the spreading size and does not delay the arrival time of epidemic spreading peak compared with homogeneous awareness.

Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

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Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

2001-06-01

We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks.

Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

2001-01-01

We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks

Allometries of Maximum Growth Rate versus Body Mass at Maximum Growth Indicate That Non-Avian Dinosaurs Had Growth Rates Typical of Fast Growing Ectothermic Sauropsids

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Werner, Jan; Griebeler, Eva Maria

2014-01-01

We tested if growth rates of recent taxa are unequivocally separated between endotherms and ectotherms, and compared these to dinosaurian growth rates. We therefore performed linear regression analyses on the log-transformed maximum growth rate against log-transformed body mass at maximum growth for extant altricial birds, precocial birds, eutherians, marsupials, reptiles, fishes and dinosaurs. Regression models of precocial birds (and fishes) strongly differed from Case’s study (1978), which is often used to compare dinosaurian growth rates to those of extant vertebrates. For all taxonomic groups, the slope of 0.75 expected from the Metabolic Theory of Ecology was statistically supported. To compare growth rates between taxonomic groups we therefore used regressions with this fixed slope and group-specific intercepts. On average, maximum growth rates of ectotherms were about 10 (reptiles) to 20 (fishes) times (in comparison to mammals) or even 45 (reptiles) to 100 (fishes) times (in comparison to birds) lower than in endotherms. While on average all taxa were clearly separated from each other, individual growth rates overlapped between several taxa and even between endotherms and ectotherms. Dinosaurs had growth rates intermediate between similar sized/scaled-up reptiles and mammals, but a much lower rate than scaled-up birds. All dinosaurian growth rates were within the range of extant reptiles and mammals, and were lower than those of birds. Under the assumption that growth rate and metabolic rate are indeed linked, our results suggest two alternative interpretations. Compared to other sauropsids, the growth rates of studied dinosaurs clearly indicate that they had an ectothermic rather than an endothermic metabolic rate. Compared to other vertebrate growth rates, the overall high variability in growth rates of extant groups and the high overlap between individual growth rates of endothermic and ectothermic extant species make it impossible to rule out either

Allometries of maximum growth rate versus body mass at maximum growth indicate that non-avian dinosaurs had growth rates typical of fast growing ectothermic sauropsids.

Science.gov (United States)

Werner, Jan; Griebeler, Eva Maria

2014-01-01

We tested if growth rates of recent taxa are unequivocally separated between endotherms and ectotherms, and compared these to dinosaurian growth rates. We therefore performed linear regression analyses on the log-transformed maximum growth rate against log-transformed body mass at maximum growth for extant altricial birds, precocial birds, eutherians, marsupials, reptiles, fishes and dinosaurs. Regression models of precocial birds (and fishes) strongly differed from Case's study (1978), which is often used to compare dinosaurian growth rates to those of extant vertebrates. For all taxonomic groups, the slope of 0.75 expected from the Metabolic Theory of Ecology was statistically supported. To compare growth rates between taxonomic groups we therefore used regressions with this fixed slope and group-specific intercepts. On average, maximum growth rates of ectotherms were about 10 (reptiles) to 20 (fishes) times (in comparison to mammals) or even 45 (reptiles) to 100 (fishes) times (in comparison to birds) lower than in endotherms. While on average all taxa were clearly separated from each other, individual growth rates overlapped between several taxa and even between endotherms and ectotherms. Dinosaurs had growth rates intermediate between similar sized/scaled-up reptiles and mammals, but a much lower rate than scaled-up birds. All dinosaurian growth rates were within the range of extant reptiles and mammals, and were lower than those of birds. Under the assumption that growth rate and metabolic rate are indeed linked, our results suggest two alternative interpretations. Compared to other sauropsids, the growth rates of studied dinosaurs clearly indicate that they had an ectothermic rather than an endothermic metabolic rate. Compared to other vertebrate growth rates, the overall high variability in growth rates of extant groups and the high overlap between individual growth rates of endothermic and ectothermic extant species make it impossible to rule out either of

Allometries of maximum growth rate versus body mass at maximum growth indicate that non-avian dinosaurs had growth rates typical of fast growing ectothermic sauropsids.

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Jan Werner

Full Text Available We tested if growth rates of recent taxa are unequivocally separated between endotherms and ectotherms, and compared these to dinosaurian growth rates. We therefore performed linear regression analyses on the log-transformed maximum growth rate against log-transformed body mass at maximum growth for extant altricial birds, precocial birds, eutherians, marsupials, reptiles, fishes and dinosaurs. Regression models of precocial birds (and fishes strongly differed from Case's study (1978, which is often used to compare dinosaurian growth rates to those of extant vertebrates. For all taxonomic groups, the slope of 0.75 expected from the Metabolic Theory of Ecology was statistically supported. To compare growth rates between taxonomic groups we therefore used regressions with this fixed slope and group-specific intercepts. On average, maximum growth rates of ectotherms were about 10 (reptiles to 20 (fishes times (in comparison to mammals or even 45 (reptiles to 100 (fishes times (in comparison to birds lower than in endotherms. While on average all taxa were clearly separated from each other, individual growth rates overlapped between several taxa and even between endotherms and ectotherms. Dinosaurs had growth rates intermediate between similar sized/scaled-up reptiles and mammals, but a much lower rate than scaled-up birds. All dinosaurian growth rates were within the range of extant reptiles and mammals, and were lower than those of birds. Under the assumption that growth rate and metabolic rate are indeed linked, our results suggest two alternative interpretations. Compared to other sauropsids, the growth rates of studied dinosaurs clearly indicate that they had an ectothermic rather than an endothermic metabolic rate. Compared to other vertebrate growth rates, the overall high variability in growth rates of extant groups and the high overlap between individual growth rates of endothermic and ectothermic extant species make it impossible to rule

Collective effect of personal behavior induced preventive measures and differential rate of transmission on spread of epidemics

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Sagar, Vikram; Zhao, Yi

2017-02-01

In the present work, the effect of personal behavior induced preventive measures is studied on the spread of epidemics over scale free networks that are characterized by the differential rate of disease transmission. The role of personal behavior induced preventive measures is parameterized in terms of variable λ, which modulates the number of concurrent contacts a node makes with the fraction of its neighboring nodes. The dynamics of the disease is described by a non-linear Susceptible Infected Susceptible model based upon the discrete time Markov Chain method. The network mean field approach is generalized to account for the effect of non-linear coupling between the aforementioned factors on the collective dynamics of nodes. The upper bound estimates of the disease outbreak threshold obtained from the mean field theory are found to be in good agreement with the corresponding non-linear stochastic model. From the results of parametric study, it is shown that the epidemic size has inverse dependence on the preventive measures (λ). It has also been shown that the increase in the average degree of the nodes lowers the time of spread and enhances the size of epidemics.

West Nile Virus: High Transmission Rate in North-Western European Mosquitoes Indicates Its Epidemic Potential and Warrants Increased Surveillance.

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Jelke J Fros

Full Text Available West Nile virus (WNV is a highly pathogenic flavivirus transmitted by Culex spp. mosquitoes. In North America (NA, lineage 1 WNV caused the largest outbreak of neuroinvasive disease to date, while a novel pathogenic lineage 2 strain circulates in southern Europe. To estimate WNV lineage 2 epidemic potential it is paramount to know if mosquitoes from currently WNV-free areas can support further spread of this epidemic.We assessed WNV vector competence of Culex pipiens mosquitoes originating from north-western Europe (NWE in direct comparison with those from NA. We exposed mosquitoes to infectious blood meals of lineage 1 or 2 WNV and determined the infection and transmission rates. We explored reasons for vector competence differences by comparing intrathoracic injection versus blood meal infection, and we investigated the influence of temperature. We found that NWE mosquitoes are highly competent for both WNV lineages, with transmission rates up to 25%. Compared to NA mosquitoes, transmission rates for lineage 2 WNV were significantly elevated in NWE mosquitoes due to better virus dissemination from the midgut and a shorter extrinsic incubation time. WNV infection rates further increased with temperature increase.Our study provides experimental evidence to indicate markedly different risk levels between both continents for lineage 2 WNV transmission and suggests a degree of genotype-genotype specificity in the interaction between virus and vector. Our experiments with varying temperatures explain the current localized WNV activity in southern Europe, yet imply further epidemic spread throughout NWE during periods with favourable climatic conditions. This emphasizes the need for intensified surveillance of virus activity in current WNV disease-free regions and warrants increased awareness in clinics throughout Europe.

Ebola epidemic--Liberia, March-October 2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Nyenswah, Tolbert; Fahnbulleh, Miatta; Massaquoi, Moses; Nagbe, Thomas; Bawo, Luke; Falla, James Dorbor; Kohar, Henry; Gasasira, Alex; Nabeth, Pierre; Yett, Sheldon; Gergonne, Bernadette; Casey, Sean; Espinosa, Benjamin; McCoy, Andrea; Feldman, Heinz; Hensley, Lisa; Baily, Mark; Fields, Barry; Lo, Terrence; Lindblade, Kim; Mott, Josh; Boulanger, Lucy; Christie, Athalia; Wang, Susan; Montgomery, Joel; Mahoney, Frank

2014-11-21

On March 21, 2014, the Guinea Ministry of Health reported the outbreak of an illness characterized by fever, severe diarrhea, vomiting and a high fatality rate (59%), leading to the first known epidemic of Ebola virus disease (Ebola) in West Africa and the largest and longest Ebola epidemic in history. As of November 2, Liberia had reported the largest number of cases (6,525) and deaths (2,697) among the three affected countries of West Africa with ongoing transmission (Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone). The response strategy in Liberia has included management of the epidemic through an incident management system (IMS) in which the activities of all partners are coordinated. Within the IMS, key strategies for epidemic control include surveillance, case investigation, laboratory confirmation, contact tracing, safe transportation of persons with suspected Ebola, isolation, infection control within the health care system, community engagement, and safe burial. This report provides a brief overview of the progression of the epidemic in Liberia and summarizes the interventions implemented.

The cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980 - 1987 Epidemiological ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

During the cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980-1987, 25251 cases of cholera were bacteriologically proven. The case-fatality rate was 1,4%. Outbreaks occurred in the summer rainfall season. Age-specific aUack rates followed the pattern typically found during the 'epidemic phase' of the disease in most years. The vast ...

Deriving a model for influenza epidemics from historical data.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ray, Jaideep; Lefantzi, Sophia

2011-09-01

In this report we describe how we create a model for influenza epidemics from historical data collected from both civilian and military societies. We derive the model when the population of the society is unknown but the size of the epidemic is known. Our interest lies in estimating a time-dependent infection rate to within a multiplicative constant. The model form fitted is chosen for its similarity to published models for HIV and plague, enabling application of Bayesian techniques to discriminate among infectious agents during an emerging epidemic. We have developed models for the progression of influenza in human populations. The model is framed as a integral, and predicts the number of people who exhibit symptoms and seek care over a given time-period. The start and end of the time period form the limits of integration. The disease progression model, in turn, contains parameterized models for the incubation period and a time-dependent infection rate. The incubation period model is obtained from literature, and the parameters of the infection rate are fitted from historical data including both military and civilian populations. The calibrated infection rate models display a marked difference in which the 1918 Spanish Influenza pandemic differed from the influenza seasons in the US between 2001-2008 and the progression of H1N1 in Catalunya, Spain. The data for the 1918 pandemic was obtained from military populations, while the rest are country-wide or province-wide data from the twenty-first century. We see that the initial growth of infection in all cases were about the same; however, military populations were able to control the epidemic much faster i.e., the decay of the infection-rate curve is much higher. It is not clear whether this was because of the much higher level of organization present in a military society or the seriousness with which the 1918 pandemic was addressed. Each outbreak to which the influenza model was fitted yields a separate set of

EVALUATION AND PREDICTIVE METHODS OF EPIDEMICAL SITUATION IN THE AREA OF ACUTE ENTERIC INFECTIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Malysh N.G.

2017-06-01

temperature, humidity and rainfall. Simultaneously, should be gathered the information about the population on the investigated area, its density (for 1 km2, natural and migratory movement. When the information is gathered, begins the stage of analytical research. At first, determines the long-term tendency of the sick rate. If the average time of growth of the sick rate ranges from 0 to 1.0% - the epidemiological situation of this nosology is good, ranges from 1.1% to 5.0% - unstable, more than 5.0 % - bad. The probability of the influence of natural and social "risk factors» (X on the AII sick rate (Y calculates according to this formula: Rxy = Ʃ dx•dy / √Ʃ dx2•dy2, where Rxy - correlation coefficient; dx - departure from the arithmetical average of levels of natural or social factors; dy - departure from the arithmetical average of the annual sick rate or seasonal distribution. If it was founded an authentic correlation (p<0.05 between the average monthly rates of air temperature, humidity, rainfallы, number and density of population (per 1 km2, natural and migratory movements, and the sick rate of the AII nosological entities, the AII epidemical situation, in a case of increasing of the indicators of abovementioned "risk factors", will be also considered as unstable, which requires immediate elaboration and implementation of the targeted preventive steps. a result, the study found, that in current conditions in Sumy region the epidemical situation of shigellosis, AIIDA and AIIUE is good, according to Тred.av.= -10.7 % for shigellosis, and Тgr.av. = +0.6 % for acute intestinal infection, caused by other determined agents (AIIDA and acute intestinal infections of unknown etiology (AIIUE; epidemical situation of salmonellosis is unstable, because: Тgr.av.= +2.3 %. It was found, that the number and density of population (1 km2. Similar relationships were also found between the levels of salmonellosis sick rate and net migration rate and natural population

Abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947-1957, associated with a pronounced increase in the geographical rate of disease propagation.

Science.gov (United States)

Smallman-Raynor, M R; Cliff, A D

2014-03-01

The abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947-1957, was associated with a profound change in the spatial dynamics of the disease. Drawing on the complete record of poliomyelitis notifications in England and Wales, we use a robust method of spatial epidemiological analysis (swash-backwash model) to evaluate the geographical rate of disease propagation in successive poliomyelitis seasons, 1940-1964. Comparisons with earlier and later time periods show that the period of heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity corresponded with a sudden and pronounced increase in the spatial rate of disease propagation. This change was observed for both urban and rural areas and points to an abrupt enhancement in the propensity for the geographical spread of polioviruses. Competing theories of the epidemic emergence of poliomyelitis in England and Wales should be assessed in the light of this evidence.

Measles epidemics of variable lethality in the early 20th century.

Science.gov (United States)

Shanks, G Dennis; Hu, Zheng; Waller, Michael; Lee, Seung-eun; Terfa, Daniel; Howard, Alan; van Heyningen, Elizabeth; Brundage, John F

2014-02-15

Until the mid-20th century, mortality rates were often very high during measles epidemics, particularly among previously isolated populations (e.g., islanders), refugees/internees who were forcibly crowded into camps, and military recruits. Searching for insights regarding measles mortality rates, we reviewed historical records of measles epidemics on the Polynesian island of Rotuma (in 1911), in Boer War concentration camps (in 1900-1902), and in US Army mobilization camps during the First World War (in 1917-1918). Records classified measles deaths by date and clinical causes; by demographic characteristics, family relationships (for Rotuma islanders and Boer camp internees), and prior residences; and by camp (for Boer internees and US Army recruits). During the Rotuman and Boer War epidemics, measles-related mortality rates were high (up to 40%); however, mortality rates differed more than 10-fold across camps/districts, even though conditions were similar. During measles epidemics, most deaths among camp internees/military recruits were due to secondary bacterial pneumonias; in contrast, most deaths among Rotuman islanders were due to gastrointestinal complications. The clinical expressions, courses, and outcomes of measles during first-contact epidemics differ from those during camp epidemics. The degree of isolation from respiratory pathogens other than measles may significantly determine measles-related mortality risk.

Title Epidemic Model of a Concept within the Subject Classes of Patents: A Case Study on the Term RFID

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Mohammad Tavakolizade Ravari

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The current research aims at studying the epidemic model of the term RFID within the classes of patents. Methodology: The research is descriptive and has been conducted based on the mathematical models of diseases. Research population consists of 35,627 granted patents from the USPTO database those which the terms RFID or Radio Frequency Identification occur in their titles or abstracts. Data analysis was performed through software like Excel, SPSS, and Ravar-Matrix. Findings show that the cumulative growth of sub-classes with the term RFID follows an S-logistic model. This is an evidence of natural growth rate for assigning the term RFID to the USPTO sub-classes over the years.  Other finding reveals that the term RFID has been entered into and exited from the sub-classes of patents like the SIS epidemic model of diseases. As a final conclusion, the most technical fields those that are susceptible for RFID technology, have been met this technology. On the base of SIS model, the epidemic of RFID technology has been reached a balance.

The fastest spreader in SIS epidemics on networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

He, Z.; Van Mieghem, P.F.A.

2018-01-01

Identifying the fastest spreaders in epidemics on a network helps to ensure an efficient spreading. By ranking the average spreading time for different spreaders, we show that the fastest spreader may change with the effective infection rate of a SIS epidemic process, which means that the

Stochastic analysis of epidemics on adaptive time varying networks

Science.gov (United States)

Kotnis, Bhushan; Kuri, Joy

2013-06-01

Many studies investigating the effect of human social connectivity structures (networks) and human behavioral adaptations on the spread of infectious diseases have assumed either a static connectivity structure or a network which adapts itself in response to the epidemic (adaptive networks). However, human social connections are inherently dynamic or time varying. Furthermore, the spread of many infectious diseases occur on a time scale comparable to the time scale of the evolving network structure. Here we aim to quantify the effect of human behavioral adaptations on the spread of asymptomatic infectious diseases on time varying networks. We perform a full stochastic analysis using a continuous time Markov chain approach for calculating the outbreak probability, mean epidemic duration, epidemic reemergence probability, etc. Additionally, we use mean-field theory for calculating epidemic thresholds. Theoretical predictions are verified using extensive simulations. Our studies have uncovered the existence of an “adaptive threshold,” i.e., when the ratio of susceptibility (or infectivity) rate to recovery rate is below the threshold value, adaptive behavior can prevent the epidemic. However, if it is above the threshold, no amount of behavioral adaptations can prevent the epidemic. Our analyses suggest that the interaction patterns of the infected population play a major role in sustaining the epidemic. Our results have implications on epidemic containment policies, as awareness campaigns and human behavioral responses can be effective only if the interaction levels of the infected populace are kept in check.

Epidemic Survivability: Characterizing Networks Under Epidemic-like Failure Propagation Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Manzano, Marc; Calle, Eusebi; Ripoll, Jordi

2013-01-01

Epidemics theory has been used in different contexts in order to describe the propagation of diseases, human interactions or natural phenomena. In computer science, virus spreading has been also characterized using epidemic models. Although in the past the use of epidemic models...... in telecommunication networks has not been extensively considered, nowadays, with the increasing computation capacity and complexity of operating systems of modern network devices (routers, switches, etc.), the study of possible epidemic-like failure scenarios must be taken into account. When epidemics occur......, such as in other multiple failure scenarios, identifying the level of vulnerability offered by a network is one of the main challenges. In this paper, we present epidemic survivability, a new network measure that describes the vulnerability of each node of a network under a specific epidemic intensity. Moreover...

Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission

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Tom Britton

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?

Phylodynamics of the HIV-1 epidemic in Cuba.

Science.gov (United States)

Delatorre, Edson; Bello, Gonzalo

2013-01-01

Previous studies have shown that the HIV-1 epidemic in Cuba displayed a complex molecular epidemiologic profile with circulation of several subtypes and circulating recombinant forms (CRF); but the evolutionary and population history of those viral variants remains unknown. HIV-1 pol sequences of the most prevalent Cuban lineages (subtypes B, C and G, CRF18_cpx, CRF19_cpx, and CRFs20/23/24_BG) isolated between 1999 and 2011 were analyzed. Maximum-likelihood analyses revealed multiple introductions of subtype B (n≥66), subtype C (n≥10), subtype G (n≥8) and CRF18_cpx (n≥2) viruses in Cuba. The bulk of HIV-1 infections in this country, however, was caused by dissemination of a few founder strains probably introduced from North America/Europe (clades B(CU-I) and B(CU-II)), east Africa (clade C(CU-I)) and central Africa (clades G(CU), CRF18(CU) and CRF19(CU)), or locally generated (clades CRFs20/23/24_BG). Bayesian-coalescent analyses show that the major HIV-1 founder strains were introduced into Cuba during 1985-1995; whereas the CRFs_BG strains emerged in the second half of the 1990s. Most HIV-1 Cuban clades appear to have experienced an initial period of fast exponential spread during the 1990s and early 2000s, followed by a more recent decline in growth rate. The median initial growth rate of HIV-1 Cuban clades ranged from 0.4 year⁻¹ to 1.6 year⁻¹. Thus, the HIV-1 epidemic in Cuba has been a result of the successful introduction of a few viral strains that began to circulate at a rather late time of the AIDS pandemic, but then were rapidly disseminated through local transmission networks.

The Characteristics of TB Epidemic and TB/HIV Co-Infection Epidemic: A 2007-2013 Retrospective Study in Urumqi, Xinjiang Province, China.

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Wang Wei

Full Text Available This study was aimed to find out epidemiologic characteristic of tuberculosis (TB cases, and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV positive cases among TB patients (TB/HIV co-infection through demographic, temporal, and spatial study in Urumqi.Descriptive statistics and multivariate logistic regression were applied to identify the epidemiologic characteristics and risk factors of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic. All addresses of each TB case, TB/HIV co-infection case, and administrative street were transformed into geographical coordinate. Subsequently, the geocoded address for 82 streets was transformed into a dot map used as the basis of spatial datasets. In addition, the paper also used quantile map and the spatial scan statistic in order to identify the spatial distribution and spatial clusters of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic.There was a declining trend of the notification rates of TB epidemic from 2007 to 2009, as well as a rising trend from 2010 to 2013. However, the notification rates of TB/HIV co-infection epidemic showed a rising trend from 2007 to 2010, and a declining trend from 2011 to 2013. Moreover, a significant share of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic happened between the age of 15 to 45 years old, indicating an increase in risk of TB and TB/HIV infection. It is worth noting that the risk of HIV infection for male TB patients was 2.947 times (95% CI [2.178, 3.988] than that of female patients. Han ethnicity and Uygur ethnicity in urban region accounted for a large proportion of total TB and TB/HIV co-infection cases. Most of the TB cases of minorities in Urumqi showed a statistically significant increase in risk of HIV infection than Han ethnicity in Urumqi. In addition, the spatial distribution of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic was highly skewed. Most of the local clusters were located in urban area and rural-urban continuum where showed an increase in risk of TB and TB

Dynamics of epidemics outbreaks in heterogeneous populations

Science.gov (United States)

Brockmann, Dirk; Morales-Gallardo, Alejandro; Geisel, Theo

2007-03-01

The dynamics of epidemic outbreaks have been investigated in recent years within two alternative theoretical paradigms. The key parameter of mean field type of models such as the SIR model is the basic reproduction number R0, the average number of secondary infections caused by one infected individual. Recently, scale free network models have received much attention as they account for the high variability in the number of social contacts involved. These models predict an infinite basic reproduction number in some cases. We investigate the impact of heterogeneities of contact rates in a generic model for epidemic outbreaks. We present a system in which both the time periods of being infectious and the time periods between transmissions are Poissonian processes. The heterogeneities are introduced by means of strongly variable contact rates. In contrast to scale free network models we observe a finite basic reproduction number and, counterintuitively a smaller overall epidemic outbreak as compared to the homogeneous system. Our study thus reveals that heterogeneities in contact rates do not necessarily facilitate the spread to infectious disease but may well attenuate it.

Effect of Temperature on Growth and Sporulation of US-22, US-23, and US-24 Clonal Lineages of Phytophthora infestans and Implications for Late Blight Epidemiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Seidl Johnson, Anna C; Frost, Kenneth E; Rouse, Douglas I; Gevens, Amanda J

2015-04-01

Epidemics of late blight, caused by Phytophthora infestans (Mont.) de Bary, have been studied by plant pathologists and regarded with great concern by potato and tomato growers since the Irish potato famine in the 1840s. P. infestans populations have continued to evolve, with unique clonal lineages arising which differ in pathogen fitness and pathogenicity, potentially impacting epidemiology. In 2012 and 2013, the US-23 clonal lineage predominated late blight epidemics in most U.S. potato and tomato production regions, including Wisconsin. This lineage was unknown prior to 2009. For isolates of three recently identified clonal lineages of P. infestans (US-22, US-23, and US-24), sporulation rates were experimentally determined on potato and tomato foliage and the effect of temperature on lesion growth rate on tomato was investigated. The US-22 and US-23 isolates had greater lesion growth rates on tomato than US-24 isolates. Sporulation rates for all isolates were greater on potato than tomato, and the US-23 isolates had greater sporulation rates on both tomato and potato than the US-22 and US-24 isolates. Experimentally determined correlates of fitness were input to the LATEBLIGHT model and epidemics were simulated using archived Wisconsin weather data from four growing seasons (2009 to 2012) to investigate the effect of isolates of these new lineages on late blight epidemiology. The fast lesion growth rates of US-22 and US-23 isolates resulted in severe epidemics in all years tested, particularly in 2011. The greater sporulation rates of P. infestans on potato resulted in simulated epidemics that progressed faster than epidemics simulated for tomato; the high sporulation rates of US-23 isolates resulted in simulated epidemics more severe than simulated epidemics of isolates of the US-22 and US-24 isolates and EC-1 clonal lineages on potato and tomato. Additionally, US-23 isolates consistently caused severe simulated epidemics when lesion growth rate and sporulation

Drought and Epidemic Typhus, Central Mexico, 1655–1918

Science.gov (United States)

Acuna-Soto, Rudofo; Stahle, David W.

2014-01-01

Epidemic typhus is an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Rickettsia prowazekii and transmitted by body lice (Pediculus humanus corporis). This disease occurs where conditions are crowded and unsanitary. This disease accompanied war, famine, and poverty for centuries. Historical and proxy climate data indicate that drought was a major factor in the development of typhus epidemics in Mexico during 1655–1918. Evidence was found for 22 large typhus epidemics in central Mexico, and tree-ring chronologies were used to reconstruct moisture levels over central Mexico for the past 500 years. Below-average tree growth, reconstructed drought, and low crop yields occurred during 19 of these 22 typhus epidemics. Historical documents describe how drought created large numbers of environmental refugees that fled the famine-stricken countryside for food relief in towns. These refugees often ended up in improvised shelters in which crowding encouraged conditions necessary for spread of typhus. PMID:24564928

Sequential detection of influenza epidemics by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test

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Closas Pau

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Influenza is a well known and common human respiratory infection, causing significant morbidity and mortality every year. Despite Influenza variability, fast and reliable outbreak detection is required for health resource planning. Clinical health records, as published by the Diagnosticat database in Catalonia, host useful data for probabilistic detection of influenza outbreaks. Methods This paper proposes a statistical method to detect influenza epidemic activity. Non-epidemic incidence rates are modeled against the exponential distribution, and the maximum likelihood estimate for the decaying factor λ is calculated. The sequential detection algorithm updates the parameter as new data becomes available. Binary epidemic detection of weekly incidence rates is assessed by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test on the absolute difference between the empirical and the cumulative density function of the estimated exponential distribution with significance level 0 ≤ α ≤ 1. Results The main advantage with respect to other approaches is the adoption of a statistically meaningful test, which provides an indicator of epidemic activity with an associated probability. The detection algorithm was initiated with parameter λ0 = 3.8617 estimated from the training sequence (corresponding to non-epidemic incidence rates of the 2008-2009 influenza season and sequentially updated. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test detected the following weeks as epidemic for each influenza season: 50−10 (2008-2009 season, 38−50 (2009-2010 season, weeks 50−9 (2010-2011 season and weeks 3 to 12 for the current 2011-2012 season. Conclusions Real medical data was used to assess the validity of the approach, as well as to construct a realistic statistical model of weekly influenza incidence rates in non-epidemic periods. For the tested data, the results confirmed the ability of the algorithm to detect the start and the end of epidemic periods. In general, the proposed test could

Chaos induced by breakup of waves in a spatial epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun, Gui-Quan; Jin, Zhen; Liu, Quan-Xing; Li, Li

2008-01-01

Spatial epidemiology is the study of spatial variation in disease risk or incidence, including the spatial patterns of the population. The spread of diseases in human populations can exhibit large scale patterns, underlining the need for spatially explicit approaches. In this paper, the spatiotemporal complexity of a spatial epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate, which includes the behavioral changes and crowding effect of the infective individuals, is investigated. Based on both theoretical analysis and computer simulations, we find out when, under the parameters which can guarantee a stable limit cycle in the non-spatial model, spiral and target waves can emerge. Moreover, two different kinds of breakup of waves are shown. Specifically, the breakup of spiral waves is from the core and the breakup of target waves is from the far-field, and both kinds of waves become irregular patterns at last. Our results reveal that the spatiotemporal chaos is induced by the breakup of waves. The results obtained confirm that diffusion can form spiral waves, target waves or spatial chaos of high population density, which enrich the findings of spatiotemporal dynamics in the epidemic model

Unsynchronized influenza epidemics in two neighboring subtropical cities

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Xiujuan Tang

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the synchrony of influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen, two neighboring subtropical cities in South China. Methods: Laboratory-confirmed influenza data for the period January 2006 to December 2016 were obtained from the Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Health in Hong Kong. The population data were retrieved from the 2011 population censuses. The weekly rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases were compared between Shenzhen and Hong Kong. Results: Unsynchronized influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen were frequently observed during the study period. Influenza A/H1N1 caused a more severe pandemic in Hong Kong in 2009, but the subsequent seasonal epidemics showed similar magnitudes in both cities. Two influenza A/H3N2 dominant epidemic waves were seen in Hong Kong in 2015, but these epidemics were very minor in Shenzhen. More influenza B epidemics occurred in Shenzhen than in Hong Kong. Conclusions: Influenza epidemics appeared to be unsynchronized between Hong Kong and Shenzhen most of the time. Given the close geographical locations of these two cities, this could be due to the strikingly different age structures of their populations. Keywords: Influenza epidemics, Synchrony, Shenzhen, Hong Kong

Testing linear growth rate formulas of non-scale endogenous growth models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ziesemer, Thomas

2017-01-01

Endogenous growth theory has produced formulas for steady-state growth rates of income per capita which are linear in the growth rate of the population. Depending on the details of the models, slopes and intercepts are positive, zero or negative. Empirical tests have taken over the assumption of

Larval developmental rate, metabolic rate and future growth performance in Atlantic salmon

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Serrano, Jonathan Vaz; Åberg, Madelene; Gjoen, Hans Magnus

2009-01-01

, quantified as time to first feeding, and growth in later stages was demonstrated in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.). The observed relationship between future growth and larval developmental rate suggests that sorting larvae by time to first feeding can be a potential tool to optimize feeding strategies...... and growth in commercial rearing of Atlantic salmon. Furthermore, the link between larval standard metabolic rate and developmental rate and future growth is discussed in the present study....

Connection between the growth rate distribution and the size dependent crystal growth

Science.gov (United States)

Mitrović, M. M.; Žekić, A. A.; IIić, Z. Z.

2002-07-01

The results of investigations of the connection between the growth rate dispersions and the size dependent crystal growth of potassium dihydrogen phosphate (KDP), Rochelle salt (RS) and sodium chlorate (SC) are presented. A possible way out of the existing confusion in the size dependent crystal growth investigations is suggested. It is shown that the size independent growth exists if the crystals belonging to one growth rate distribution maximum are considered separately. The investigations suggest possible reason for the observed distribution maxima widths, and the high data scattering on the growth rate versus the crystal size dependence.

Parasite transmission in social interacting hosts: Monogenean epidemics in guppies

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Mirelle B.; Lafferty, Kevin D.; van Oosterhout, Cock; Cable, Joanne

2011-01-01

Background Infection incidence increases with the average number of contacts between susceptible and infected individuals. Contact rates are normally assumed to increase linearly with host density. However, social species seek out each other at low density and saturate their contact rates at high densities. Although predicting epidemic behaviour requires knowing how contact rates scale with host density, few empirical studies have investigated the effect of host density. Also, most theory assumes each host has an equal probability of transmitting parasites, even though individual parasite load and infection duration can vary. To our knowledge, the relative importance of characteristics of the primary infected host vs. the susceptible population has never been tested experimentally. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we examine epidemics using a common ectoparasite, Gyrodactylus turnbulli infecting its guppy host (Poecilia reticulata). Hosts were maintained at different densities (3, 6, 12 and 24 fish in 40 L aquaria), and we monitored gyrodactylids both at a population and individual host level. Although parasite population size increased with host density, the probability of an epidemic did not. Epidemics were more likely when the primary infected fish had a high mean intensity and duration of infection. Epidemics only occurred if the primary infected host experienced more than 23 worm days. Female guppies contracted infections sooner than males, probably because females have a higher propensity for shoaling. Conclusions/Significance These findings suggest that in social hosts like guppies, the frequency of social contact largely governs disease epidemics independent of host density.

Growth Rates of Microbes in the Oceans.

Science.gov (United States)

Kirchman, David L

2016-01-01

A microbe's growth rate helps to set its ecological success and its contribution to food web dynamics and biogeochemical processes. Growth rates at the community level are constrained by biomass and trophic interactions among bacteria, phytoplankton, and their grazers. Phytoplankton growth rates are approximately 1 d(-1), whereas most heterotrophic bacteria grow slowly, close to 0.1 d(-1); only a few taxa can grow ten times as fast. Data from 16S rRNA and other approaches are used to speculate about the growth rate and the life history strategy of SAR11, the most abundant clade of heterotrophic bacteria in the oceans. These strategies are also explored using genomic data. Although the methods and data are imperfect, the available data can be used to set limits on growth rates and thus on the timescale for changes in the composition and structure of microbial communities.

Effect of massing on larval growth rate.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Aidan P; Wallman, James F

2014-08-01

Estimation of minimum postmortem interval commonly relies on predicting the age of blowfly larvae based on their size and an estimate of the temperatures to which they have been exposed throughout their development. The majority of larval growth rate data have been developed using small larval masses in order to avoid excess heat generation. The current study collected growth rate data for larvae at different mass volumes, and assessed the temperature production of these masses, for two forensically important blow fly species, Chrysomya rufifacies and Calliphora vicina. The growth rate of larvae in a small mass, exposed to the higher temperatures equivalent to those experienced by large masses, was also assessed to determine if observed differences were due to the known temperature effects of maggot masses. The results showed that temperature production increased with increasing mass volume, with temperature increases of 11 °C observed in the large Ch. rufifacies masses and increases of 5 °C in the large C. vicina masses. Similarly, the growth rate of the larvae was affected by mass size. The larvae from small masses grown at the higher temperatures experienced by large masses displayed an initial delay in growth, but then grew at a similar rate to those larvae at a constant 23 °C. Since these larvae from masses of equivalent sizes displayed similar patterns of growth rate, despite differing temperatures, and these growth rates differed from larger masses exposed to the same temperatures, it can be concluded that larval growth rate within a mass may be affected by additional factors other than temperature. Overall, this study highlights the importance of understanding the role of massing in larval development and provides initial developmental data for mass sizes of two forensically important blowfly species commonly encountered in Australian forensic casework. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The epidemic of Tuberculosis on vaccinated population

Science.gov (United States)

Syahrini, Intan; Sriwahyuni; Halfiani, Vera; Meurah Yuni, Syarifah; Iskandar, Taufiq; Rasudin; Ramli, Marwan

2017-09-01

Tuberculosis is an infectious disease which has caused a large number of mortality in Indonesia. This disease is caused by Mycrobacterium tuberculosis. Besides affecting lung, this disease also affects other organs such as lymph gland, intestine, kidneys, uterus, bone, and brain. This article discusses the epidemic of tuberculosis through employing the SEIR model. Here, the population is divided into four compartments which are susceptible, exposed, infected and recovered. The susceptible population is further grouped into two which are vaccinated group and unvaccinated group. The behavior of the epidemic is investigated through analysing the equilibrium of the model. The result shows that administering vaccine to the susceptible population contributes to the reduction of the tuberculosis epidemic rate.

Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility

Science.gov (United States)

Barmak, D. H.; Dorso, C. O.; Otero, M.

2016-04-01

We explored the effect of human mobility on the spatio-temporal dynamics of Dengue with a stochastic model that takes into account the epidemiological dynamics of the infected mosquitoes and humans, with different mobility patterns of the human population. We observed that human mobility strongly affects the spread of infection by increasing the final size and by changing the morphology of the epidemic outbreaks. When the spreading of the disease is driven only by mosquito dispersal (flight), a main central focus expands diffusively. On the contrary, when human mobility is taken into account, multiple foci appear throughout the evolution of the outbreaks. These secondary foci generated throughout the outbreaks could be of little importance according to their mass or size compared with the largest main focus. However, the coalescence of these foci with the main one generates an effect, through which the latter develops a size greater than the one obtained in the case driven only by mosquito dispersal. This increase in growth rate due to human mobility and the coalescence of the foci are particularly relevant in temperate cities such as the city of Buenos Aires, since they give more possibilities to the outbreak to grow before the arrival of the low-temperature season. The findings of this work indicate that human mobility could be the main driving force in the dynamics of vector epidemics.

The HIV epidemic in Greenland - a slow spreading infection among adult heterosexual Greenlanders

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjørn-Mortensen, Karen; Ladefoged, Karin; Obel, Niels

2013-01-01

We aimed to characterise the HIV epidemic in Greenland and to determine incidence, prevalence, mortality rates (MR) and specific causes of deaths.......We aimed to characterise the HIV epidemic in Greenland and to determine incidence, prevalence, mortality rates (MR) and specific causes of deaths....

Factors affecting the HIV/AIDS epidemic: An ecological analysis of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Factors affecting the HIV/AIDS epidemic: An ecological analysis of global data. ... Backward multiple linear regression analysis identified the proportion of Muslims, physicians density, and adolescent fertility rate are as the three most prominent factors linked with the national HIV epidemic. Conclusions: The findings support ...

GROWTH RATE DISTRIBUTION OF BORAX SINGLE CRYSTALS ON THE (001 FACE UNDER VARIOUS FLOW RATES

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Suharso Suharso

2010-06-01

Full Text Available The growth rates of borax single crystals from aqueous solutions at various flow rates in the (001 direction were measured using in situ cell method. From the growth rate data obtained, the growth rate distribution of borax crystals was investigated using Minitab Software and SPSS Software at relative supersaturation of 0807 and temperature of 25 °C. The result shows that normal, gamma, and log-normal distribution give a reasonably good fit to GRD. However, there is no correlation between growth rate distribution and flow rate of solution.   Keywords: growth rate dispersion (GRD, borax, flow rate

Cyanobacteria facilitate parasite epidemics in Daphnia.

Science.gov (United States)

Tellenbach, C; Tardent, N; Pomati, F; Keller, B; Hairston, N G; Wolinska, J; Spaak, P

2016-12-01

The seasonal dominance of cyanobacteria in the phytoplankton community of lake ecosystems can have severe implications for higher trophic levels. For herbivorous zooplankton such as Daphnia, cyanobacteria have poor nutritional value and some species can produce toxins affecting zooplankton survival and reproduction. Here we present another, hitherto largely unexplored aspect of cyanobacteria, namely that they can increase Daphnia susceptibility to parasites. In a 12-yr monthly time-series analysis of the Daphnia community in Greifensee (Switzerland), we observed that cyanobacteria density correlated significantly with the epidemics of a common gut parasite of Daphnia, Caullerya mesnili, regardless of what cyanobacteria species was present or whether it was colonial or filamentous. The temperature from the previous month also affected the occurrence of Caullerya epidemics, either directly or indirectly by the promotion of cyanobacterial growth. A laboratory experiment confirmed that cyanobacteria increase the susceptibility of Daphnia to Caullerya, and suggested a possible involvement of cyanotoxins or other chemical traits of cyanobacteria in this process. These findings expand our understanding of the consequences of toxic cyanobacterial blooms for lake ecosystems and might be relevant for epidemics experienced by other aquatic species. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

A break in the obesity epidemic?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Visscher, T L S; Heitmann, B L; Rissanen, A

2015-01-01

Recent epidemiologic papers are presenting prevalence data suggesting breaks and decreases in obesity rates. However, before concluding that the obesity epidemic is not increasing anymore, the validity of the presented data should be discussed more thoroughly. We had a closer look into the litera......, focusing on trends in waist circumference rather than BMI leads to a less optimistic conclusion: the public health problem of obesity is still increasing.International Journal of Obesity advance online publication, 22 July 2014; doi:10.1038/ijo.2014.98....... into the literature presented in recent reviews to address the major potential biases and distortions, and to develop insights about how to interpret the presented suggestions for a potential break in the obesity epidemic. Decreasing participation rates, the use of reported rather than measured data and small sample...

Dinosaur Metabolism and the Allometry of Maximum Growth Rate.

Science.gov (United States)

Myhrvold, Nathan P

2016-01-01

The allometry of maximum somatic growth rate has been used in prior studies to classify the metabolic state of both extant vertebrates and dinosaurs. The most recent such studies are reviewed, and their data is reanalyzed. The results of allometric regressions on growth rate are shown to depend on the choice of independent variable; the typical choice used in prior studies introduces a geometric shear transformation that exaggerates the statistical power of the regressions. The maximum growth rates of extant groups are found to have a great deal of overlap, including between groups with endothermic and ectothermic metabolism. Dinosaur growth rates show similar overlap, matching the rates found for mammals, reptiles and fish. The allometric scaling of growth rate with mass is found to have curvature (on a log-log scale) for many groups, contradicting the prevailing view that growth rate allometry follows a simple power law. Reanalysis shows that no correlation between growth rate and basal metabolic rate (BMR) has been demonstrated. These findings drive a conclusion that growth rate allometry studies to date cannot be used to determine dinosaur metabolism as has been previously argued.

Dinosaur Metabolism and the Allometry of Maximum Growth Rate

Science.gov (United States)

Myhrvold, Nathan P.

2016-01-01

The allometry of maximum somatic growth rate has been used in prior studies to classify the metabolic state of both extant vertebrates and dinosaurs. The most recent such studies are reviewed, and their data is reanalyzed. The results of allometric regressions on growth rate are shown to depend on the choice of independent variable; the typical choice used in prior studies introduces a geometric shear transformation that exaggerates the statistical power of the regressions. The maximum growth rates of extant groups are found to have a great deal of overlap, including between groups with endothermic and ectothermic metabolism. Dinosaur growth rates show similar overlap, matching the rates found for mammals, reptiles and fish. The allometric scaling of growth rate with mass is found to have curvature (on a log-log scale) for many groups, contradicting the prevailing view that growth rate allometry follows a simple power law. Reanalysis shows that no correlation between growth rate and basal metabolic rate (BMR) has been demonstrated. These findings drive a conclusion that growth rate allometry studies to date cannot be used to determine dinosaur metabolism as has been previously argued. PMID:27828977

Persistence and extinction for a class of stochastic SIS epidemic models with nonlinear incidence rate

Science.gov (United States)

Teng, Zhidong; Wang, Lei

2016-06-01

In this paper, a class of stochastic SIS epidemic models with nonlinear incidence rate is investigated. It is shown that the extinction and persistence of the disease in probability are determined by a threshold value R˜0. That is, if R˜0 1 then disease is weak permanent with probability one. To obtain the permanence in the mean of the disease, a new quantity R̂0 is introduced, and it is proved that if R̂0 > 1 the disease is permanent in the mean with probability one. Furthermore, the numerical simulations are presented to illustrate some open problems given in Remarks 1-3 and 5 of this paper.

Microtubules Growth Rate Alteration in Human Endothelial Cells

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Irina B. Alieva

2010-01-01

Full Text Available To understand how microtubules contribute to the dynamic reorganization of the endothelial cell (EC cytoskeleton, we established an EC model expressing EB3-GFP, a protein that marks microtubule plus-ends. Using this model, we were able to measure microtubule growth rate at the centrosome region and near the cell periphery of a single human EC and in the EC monolayer. We demonstrate that the majority of microtubules in EC are dynamic, the growth rate of their plus-ends is highest in the internal cytoplasm, in the region of the centrosome. Growth rate of microtubule plus-ends decreases from the cell center toward the periphery. Our data suggest the existing mechanism(s of local regulation of microtubule plus-ends growth in EC. Microtubule growth rate in the internal cytoplasm of EC in the monolayer is lower than that of single EC suggesting the regulatory effect of cell-cell contacts. Centrosomal microtubule growth rate distribution in single EC indicated the presence of two subpopulations of microtubules with “normal” (similar to those in monolayer EC and “fast” (three times as much growth rates. Our results indicate functional interactions between cell-cell contacts and microtubules.

Effects of local and global network connectivity on synergistic epidemics

Science.gov (United States)

Broder-Rodgers, David; Pérez-Reche, Francisco J.; Taraskin, Sergei N.

2015-12-01

Epidemics in networks can be affected by cooperation in transmission of infection and also connectivity between nodes. An interplay between these two properties and their influence on epidemic spread are addressed in the paper. A particular type of cooperative effects (called synergy effects) is considered, where the transmission rate between a pair of nodes depends on the number of infected neighbors. The connectivity effects are studied by constructing networks of different topology, starting with lattices with only local connectivity and then with networks that have both local and global connectivity obtained by random bond-rewiring to nodes within a certain distance. The susceptible-infected-removed epidemics were found to exhibit several interesting effects: (i) for epidemics with strong constructive synergy spreading in networks with high local connectivity, the bond rewiring has a negative role in epidemic spread, i.e., it reduces invasion probability; (ii) in contrast, for epidemics with destructive or weak constructive synergy spreading on networks of arbitrary local connectivity, rewiring helps epidemics to spread; (iii) and, finally, rewiring always enhances the spread of epidemics, independent of synergy, if the local connectivity is low.

Exchange-rate regimes and economic growth: An empirical evaluation

OpenAIRE

Simón Sosvilla-Rivero; María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera

2014-01-01

Based on a dataset of 123 economies, this paper empirically investigates the relation between exchange-rate regimes and economic growth. We find that growth performance is best under intermediate exchange rate regimes, while the smallest growth rates are associated with flexible exchange rates. Nevertheless, this conclusion is tempered when we analyze the countries by income level: even though countries that adopt intermediate exchange-rate regimes are characterized by higher economic growth,...

Interplay between the local information based behavioral responses and the epidemic spreading in complex networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Can; Xie, Jia-Rong; Chen, Han-Shuang; Zhang, Hai-Feng; Tang, Ming

2015-10-01

The spreading of an infectious disease can trigger human behavior responses to the disease, which in turn plays a crucial role on the spreading of epidemic. In this study, to illustrate the impacts of the human behavioral responses, a new class of individuals, S(F), is introduced to the classical susceptible-infected-recovered model. In the model, S(F) state represents that susceptible individuals who take self-initiate protective measures to lower the probability of being infected, and a susceptible individual may go to S(F) state with a response rate when contacting an infectious neighbor. Via the percolation method, the theoretical formulas for the epidemic threshold as well as the prevalence of epidemic are derived. Our finding indicates that, with the increasing of the response rate, the epidemic threshold is enhanced and the prevalence of epidemic is reduced. The analytical results are also verified by the numerical simulations. In addition, we demonstrate that, because the mean field method neglects the dynamic correlations, a wrong result based on the mean field method is obtained-the epidemic threshold is not related to the response rate, i.e., the additional S(F) state has no impact on the epidemic threshold.

Epidemic spreading on dual-structure networks with mobile agents

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Yiyang; Zhou, Yinzuo

2017-02-01

The rapid development of modern society continually transforms the social structure which leads to an increasingly distinct dual structure of higher population density in urban areas and lower density in rural areas. Such structure may induce distinctive spreading behavior of epidemics which does not happen in a single type structure. In this paper, we study the epidemic spreading of mobile agents on dual structure networks based on SIRS model. First, beyond the well known epidemic threshold for generic epidemic model that when the infection rate is below the threshold a pertinent infectious disease will die out, we find the other epidemic threshold which appears when the infection rate of a disease is relatively high. This feature of two thresholds for the SIRS model may lead to the elimination of infectious disease when social network has either high population density or low population density. Interestingly, however, we find that when a high density area is connected to a low density may cause persistent spreading of the infectious disease, even though the same disease will die out when it spreads in each single area. This phenomenon indicates the critical role of the connection between the two areas which could radically change the behavior of spreading dynamics. Our findings, therefore, provide new understanding of epidemiology pertinent to the characteristic modern social structure and have potential to develop controlling strategies accordingly.

Growth and development rates have different thermal responses.

Science.gov (United States)

Forster, Jack; Hirst, Andrew G; Woodward, Guy

2011-11-01

Growth and development rates are fundamental to all living organisms. In a warming world, it is important to determine how these rates will respond to increasing temperatures. It is often assumed that the thermal responses of physiological rates are coupled to metabolic rate and thus have the same temperature dependence. However, the existence of the temperature-size rule suggests that intraspecific growth and development are decoupled. Decoupling of these rates would have important consequences for individual species and ecosystems, yet this has not been tested systematically across a range of species. We conducted an analysis on growth and development rate data compiled from the literature for a well-studied group, marine pelagic copepods, and use an information-theoretic approach to test which equations best describe these rates. Growth and development rates were best characterized by models with significantly different parameters: development has stronger temperature dependence than does growth across all life stages. As such, it is incorrect to assume that these rates have the same temperature dependence. We used the best-fit models for these rates to predict changes in organism mass in response to temperature. These predictions follow a concave relationship, which complicates attempts to model the impacts of increasing global temperatures on species body size.

Vaccination intervention on epidemic dynamics in networks

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Xiao-Long; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu; Zhou, Tao

2013-02-01

Vaccination is an important measure available for preventing or reducing the spread of infectious diseases. In this paper, an epidemic model including susceptible, infected, and imperfectly vaccinated compartments is studied on Watts-Strogatz small-world, Barabási-Albert scale-free, and random scale-free networks. The epidemic threshold and prevalence are analyzed. For small-world networks, the effective vaccination intervention is suggested and its influence on the threshold and prevalence is analyzed. For scale-free networks, the threshold is found to be strongly dependent both on the effective vaccination rate and on the connectivity distribution. Moreover, so long as vaccination is effective, it can linearly decrease the epidemic prevalence in small-world networks, whereas for scale-free networks it acts exponentially. These results can help in adopting pragmatic treatment upon diseases in structured populations.

Urgent epidemic control mechanism for aviation networks

KAUST Repository

Peng, Chengbin; Wang, Shengbin; Shi, Meixia; Jin, Xiaogang

2011-01-01

In the current century, the highly developed transportation system can not only boost the economy, but also greatly accelerate the spreading of epidemics. While some epidemic diseases may infect quite a number of people ahead of our awareness, the health care resources such as vaccines and the medical staff are usually locally or even globally insufficient. In this research, with the network of major aviation routes as an example, we present a method to determine the optimal locations to allocate the medical service in order to minimize the impact of the infectious disease with limited resources. Specifically, we demonstrate that when the medical resources are insufficient, we should concentrate our efforts on the travelers with the objective of effectively controlling the spreading rate of the epidemic diseases. © 2011 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Division-Based, Growth Rate Diversity in Bacteria

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Ghislain Y. Gangwe Nana

2018-05-01

Full Text Available To investigate the nature and origins of growth rate diversity in bacteria, we grew Escherichia coli and Bacillus subtilis in liquid minimal media and, after different periods of 15N-labeling, analyzed and imaged isotope distributions in individual cells with Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry. We find a striking inter- and intra-cellular diversity, even in steady state growth. This is consistent with the strand-dependent, hyperstructure-based hypothesis that a major function of the cell cycle is to generate coherent, growth rate diversity via the semi-conservative pattern of inheritance of strands of DNA and associated macromolecular assemblies. We also propose quantitative, general, measures of growth rate diversity for studies of cell physiology that include antibiotic resistance.

Measurements of Protein Crystal Face Growth Rates

Science.gov (United States)

Gorti, S.

2014-01-01

Protein crystal growth rates will be determined for several hyperthermophile proteins.; The growth rates will be assessed using available theoretical models, including kinetic roughening.; If/when kinetic roughening supersaturations are established, determinations of protein crystal quality over a range of supersaturations will also be assessed.; The results of our ground based effort may well address the existence of a correlation between fundamental growth mechanisms and protein crystal quality.

Global Changes in Food Supply and the Obesity Epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Zobel, Emilie H; Hansen, Tine W; Rossing, Peter; von Scholten, Bernt Johan

2016-12-01

We explore how a global shift in the food system caused by global economic growth, increase in available food per capita and in food processing is a driver of the obesity epidemic. Economic development in most areas of the world has resulted in increased purchasing power and available per capita food. Supermarkets and a growing fast-food industry have transformed our dietary pattern. Ultra-processed food rich on sugars and saturated fat is now the major source of energy in most countries. The shift in food supply is considered a major driver of the obesity epidemic and the increasing prevalence of accompanying complications, such as type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and cancer. However, the global shift might also have direct effects on the increase in type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and cancer, independently of overweight and obesity. The shift in the food supply is a major driver of the obesity epidemic.

Emittance growth rates for displaced beams

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anderson, O.A.

1993-05-01

Emittance growth rates have been previously analyzed for nonuniform beams in linear channels and for initially uniform mismatched beams in nonlinear channels. These studies were for centered beams. Additional emittance growth can arise in cases where the beam is initially displaced. The purpose of this study is to obtain growth rates for displaced beams. This work differs from studies involving random displacement of electrodes. Our analysis assumes instead that the focusing system is perfectly aligned but that the beam is initially displaced with respect to the equilibrium axis. If the focusing force is slightly nonlinear, we find a gradual transfer of the potential energy of beam displacement into kinetic energy associated with emittance growth. We present explicit results for the emittance growth distance as a function of the nonlinearity of the channel. These results will have practical importance for designers of accelerators and transport systems when setting realistic tolerances for initial beam alignment. These tolerances will depend on the nonlinearity and the length of the system

Modeling historical tuberculosis epidemics among Canadian First Nations: Effects of malnutrition and genetic variation

OpenAIRE

Ackley, SF; Liu, F; Porco, TC; Pepperell, CS

2015-01-01

© 2015 Ackley et al. Late 19th century epidemics of tuberculosis (TB) inWestern Canadian First Nations resulted in peak TB mortality rates more than six times the highest rates recorded in Europe. Using a mathematical modeling approach and historical TB mortality time series, we investigate potential causes of high TB mortality and rapid epidemic decline in First Nations from 1885 to 1940. We explore two potential causes of dramatic epidemic dynamics observed in this setting: first, we explor...

Growth rate of YBCO-Ag superconducting single grains

Science.gov (United States)

Congreve, J. V. J.; Shi, Y. H.; Dennis, A. R.; Durrell, J. H.; Cardwell, D. A.

2017-12-01

The large scale use of (RE)Ba2Cu3O7 bulk superconductors, where RE=Y, Gd, Sm, is, in part, limited by the relatively poor mechanical properties of these inherently brittle ceramic materials. It is reported that alloying of (RE)Ba2Cu3O7 with silver enables a significant improvement in the mechanical strength of bulk, single grain samples without any detrimental effect on their superconducting properties. However, due to the complexity and number of inter-related variables involved in the top seeded melt growth (TSMG) process, the growth of large single grains is difficult and the addition of silver makes it even more difficult to achieve successful growth reliably. The key processing variables in the TSMG process include the times and temperatures of the stages within the heating profile, which can be derived from the growth rate during the growth process. To date, the growth rate of the YBa2Cu3O7-Ag system has not been reported in detail and it is this lacuna that we have sought to address. In this work we measure the growth rate of the YBCO-Ag system using a method based on continuous cooling and isothermal holding (CCIH). We have determined the growth rate by measuring the side length of the crystallised region for a number of samples for specified isothermal hold temperatures and periods. This has enabled the growth rate to be modelled and from this an optimized heating profile for the successful growth of YBCO-Ag single grains to be derived.

Epidemic spreading in scale-free networks including the effect of individual vigilance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gong Yong-Wang; Song Yu-Rong; Jiang Guo-Ping

2012-01-01

In this paper, we study the epidemic spreading in scale-free networks and propose a new susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model that includes the effect of individual vigilance. In our model, the effective spreading rate is dynamically adjusted with the time evolution at the vigilance period. Using the mean-field theory, an analytical result is derived. It shows that individual vigilance has no effect on the epidemic threshold. The numerical simulations agree well with the analytical result. Furthermore, we investigate the effect of individual vigilance on the epidemic spreading speed. It is shown that individual vigilance can slow the epidemic spreading speed effectively and delay the arrival of peak epidemic infection. (general)

Recurrent epidemic cycles driven by intervention in a population of two susceptibility types

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Juanico, Drandreb Earl O

2014-01-01

Epidemics have been known to persist in the form of recurrence cycles. Despite intervention efforts through vaccination and targeted social distancing, infectious diseases like influenza continue to appear intermittently over time. I have undertaken an analysis of a stochastic epidemic model to explore the hypothesis that intervention efforts actually drive epidemic cycles. Time series from simulations of the model reveal oscillations exhibiting a similar temporal signature as influenza epidemics. The power-spectral density indicates a resonant frequency, which approximately corresponds to the apparent annual seasonality of influenza in temperate zones. Asymptotic solution to the backward Kolmogorov equation of the dynamics corresponds to an exponentially-decaying mean-exit time as a function of the intervention rate. Intervention must be implemented at a sufficiently high rate to extinguish the infection. The results demonstrate that intervention efforts can induce epidemic cycles, and that the temporal signature of cycles can provide early warning of imminent outbreaks

Virus-Specific Differences in Rates of Disease during the 2010 Dengue Epidemic in Puerto Rico

Science.gov (United States)

Sharp, Tyler M.; Hunsperger, Elizabeth; Santiago, Gilberto A.; Muñoz-Jordan, Jorge L.; Santiago, Luis M.; Rivera, Aidsa; Rodríguez-Acosta, Rosa L.; Gonzalez Feliciano, Lorenzo; Margolis, Harold S.; Tomashek, Kay M.

2013-01-01

Background Dengue is a potentially fatal acute febrile illness (AFI) caused by four mosquito-transmitted dengue viruses (DENV-1–4) that are endemic in Puerto Rico. In January 2010, the number of suspected dengue cases reported to the passive dengue surveillance system exceeded the epidemic threshold and an epidemic was declared soon after. Methodology/Principal Findings To characterize the epidemic, surveillance and laboratory diagnostic data were compiled. A suspected case was a dengue-like AFI in a person reported by a health care provider with or without a specimen submitted for diagnostic testing. Laboratory-positive cases had: (i) DENV nucleic acid detected by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in an acute serum specimen; (ii) anti-DENV IgM antibody detected by ELISA in any serum specimen; or (iii) DENV antigen or nucleic acid detected in an autopsy-tissue specimen. In 2010, a total of 26,766 suspected dengue cases (7.2 per 1,000 residents) were identified, of which 46.6% were laboratory-positive. Of 7,426 RT-PCR-positive specimens, DENV-1 (69.0%) and DENV-4 (23.6%) were detected more frequently than DENV-2 (7.3%) and DENV-3 (Puerto Rico in the late 1960's. This epidemic re-emphasizes the need for more effective primary prevention interventions to reduce the morbidity and mortality of dengue. PMID:23593526

Growth rate, population entropy, and perturbation theory.

OpenAIRE

Demetrius, L.

1989-01-01

This paper is concerned with the connection between two classes of population variables: measures of population growth rate—the Malthusian parameter, the net reproduction rate, the gross reproduction rate, and the mean life expectancy; and measures of demographic heterogeneity—population entropy. It is shown that the entropy functions predict the response of the growth rate parameters to perturbations in the age-specific fecundity and mortality schedule. These results are invoked to introduce...

EVIDENCE ON EMPLOYMENT RATE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cornelia VĂCEANU

2014-11-01

Full Text Available This paper explores a causal relationship between employment rate and economic growth for European Union countries, in general, and produces a structural assessment of employment on the background of labour market dynamics. Economic growth is the key in economic theory and the main source of well-being and quality of life. Since the 2008 financial crisis, most European countries have experienced job shortage and unemployment problem, but today's European economic outlook is strengthening on the bases of a GDP growing momentum. Empirical data shows, regardless the GDP's moderate positive trend, the employment rate did not increase enough. Given this, the present analysis address the question: to what extent the employment rate is affected by economic growth?

Heightened vulnerability to MDR-TB epidemics after controlling drug-susceptible TB.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jason D Bishai

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Prior infection with one strain TB has been linked with diminished likelihood of re-infection by a new strain. This paper attempts to determine the role of declining prevalence of drug-susceptible TB in enabling future epidemics of MDR-TB.A computer simulation of MDR-TB epidemics was developed using an agent-based model platform programmed in NetLogo (See http://mdr.tbtools.org/. Eighty-one scenarios were created, varying levels of treatment quality, diagnostic accuracy, microbial fitness cost, and the degree of immunogenicity elicited by drug-susceptible TB. Outcome measures were the number of independent MDR-TB cases per trial and the proportion of trials resulting in MDR-TB epidemics for a 500 year period after drug therapy for TB is introduced.MDR-TB epidemics propagated more extensively after TB prevalence had fallen. At a case detection rate of 75%, improving therapeutic compliance from 50% to 75% can reduce the probability of an epidemic from 45% to 15%. Paradoxically, improving the case-detection rate from 50% to 75% when compliance with DOT is constant at 75% increases the probability of MDR-TB epidemics from 3% to 45%.The ability of MDR-TB to spread depends on the prevalence of drug-susceptible TB. Immunologic protection conferred by exposure to drug-susceptible TB can be a crucial factor that prevents MDR-TB epidemics when TB treatment is poor. Any single population that successfully reduces its burden of drug-susceptible TB will have reduced herd immunity to externally or internally introduced strains of MDR-TB and can experience heightened vulnerability to an epidemic. Since countries with good TB control may be more vulnerable, their self interest dictates greater promotion of case detection and DOTS implementation in countries with poor control to control their risk of MDR-TB.

HIV-1 epidemic in Warao Amerindians from Venezuela: spatial phylodynamics and epidemiological patterns.

Science.gov (United States)

Villalba, Julian A; Bello, Gonzalo; Maes, Mailis; Sulbaran, Yoneira F; Garzaro, Domingo; Loureiro, Carmen L; Rangel, Hector R; de Waard, Jacobus H; Pujol, Flor H

2013-07-17

We previously reported HIV-1 infection in Warao Amerindians from Venezuela. The aim of this study was to evaluate the extent and the dynamic of HIV-1 dissemination in eight Warao communities. HIV-1 infection was evaluated in 576 Warao Amerindians from the Orinoco Delta. Partial HIV-1 pol sequences were analyzed to reconstruct the spatiotemporal and demographic dynamics of the epidemic. HIV-1 antibodies were present in 9.55% of Warao Amerindians, ranging from 0 to 22%. A significantly higher prevalence was found in men (15.6%) compared with women (2.6%), reaching up to 35% in men from one community. All but one isolates were classified as subtype B. Warao's HIV-1 subtype-B epidemic resulted from a single viral introduction at around the early 2000s. After an initial phase of slow growth, the subtype B started to spread at a fast rate (0.8/year) following two major routes of migration within the communities. A dramatic high prevalence was documented in almost all the communities of Warao Amerindians from the Orinoco Delta tested for HIV-1 infection. This epidemic resulted from the dissemination of a single HIV-1 subtype B founder strain introduced about 10 years ago and its size is probably doubling every year, creating a situation that can be devastating for this vulnerable Amerindian group.

Hatching rate and growth rate of Nothobranchius guentheri fertilized eggs after space flight

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo Mingzhong; Zheng Leyun; Lin Guangji; Zhong Jianxing; Yang Huosheng; Zheng Yangfu

2012-01-01

Hatching, abnormal, growth and survival rate of the fertilized eggs of Nothobranchius guentheri were carried by Shenzhou 7 spacecraft were studied. The results indicated that the hatching and abnormal rate were no significant difference between the spaceflight group (99.3% and 16.8%) and ground group (97.2% and 10.4%); but the growth rate of male fish from spaceflight group was significant higher (0.094 g/d) than that of ground group (0.059 g/d), leading to the significant bigger of the male fish from spaceflight group. The survival rate of spaceflight group (66.7%) was higher than the ground group (47.9%). It was concluded that there was a higher growth and survival rate of Nothobranchius guentheri fertilized eggs after space flight. (authors)

Multidimensional epidemic thresholds in diffusion processes over interdependent networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salehi, Mostafa; Siyari, Payam; Magnani, Matteo; Montesi, Danilo

2015-01-01

Highlights: •We propose a new concept of multidimensional epidemic threshold for interdependent networks. •We analytically derive and numerically illustrate the conditions for multilayer epidemics. •We study the evolution of infection density and diffusion dynamics. -- Abstract: Several systems can be modeled as sets of interdependent networks where each network contains distinct nodes. Diffusion processes like the spreading of a disease or the propagation of information constitute fundamental phenomena occurring over such coupled networks. In this paper we propose a new concept of multidimensional epidemic threshold characterizing diffusion processes over interdependent networks, allowing different diffusion rates on the different networks and arbitrary degree distributions. We analytically derive and numerically illustrate the conditions for multilayer epidemics, i.e., the appearance of a giant connected component spanning all the networks. Furthermore, we study the evolution of infection density and diffusion dynamics with extensive simulation experiments on synthetic and real networks

The effect of size and competition on tree growth rate in old-growth coniferous forests

Science.gov (United States)

Das, Adrian

2012-01-01

Tree growth and competition play central roles in forest dynamics. Yet models of competition often neglect important variation in species-specific responses. Furthermore, functions used to model changes in growth rate with size do not always allow for potential complexity. Using a large data set from old-growth forests in California, models were parameterized relating growth rate to tree size and competition for four common species. Several functions relating growth rate to size were tested. Competition models included parameters for tree size, competitor size, and competitor distance. Competitive strength was allowed to vary by species. The best ranked models (using Akaike’s information criterion) explained between 18% and 40% of the variance in growth rate, with each species showing a strong response to competition. Models indicated that relationships between competition and growth varied substantially among species. The results also suggested that the relationship between growth rate and tree size can be complex and that how we model it can affect not only our ability to detect that complexity but also whether we obtain misleading results. In this case, for three of four species, the best model captured an apparent and unexpected decline in potential growth rate for the smallest trees in the data set.

Steady States in SIRS Epidemical Model of Mobile Individuals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Duanming; He Minhua; Yu Xiaoling; Pan Guijun; Sun Hongzhang; Su Xiangying; Sun Fan; Yin Yanping; Li Rui; Liu Dan

2006-01-01

We consider an epidemical model within socially interacting mobile individuals to study the behaviors of steady states of epidemic propagation in 2D networks. Using mean-field approximation and large scale simulations, we recover the usual epidemic behavior with critical thresholds δ c and p c below which infectious disease dies out. For the population density δ far above δ c , it is found that there is linear relationship between contact rate λ and the population density δ in the main. At the same time, the result obtained from mean-field approximation is compared with our numerical result, and it is found that these two results are similar by and large but not completely the same.

Steady States in SIRS Epidemical Model of Mobile Individuals

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

ZHANG Duan-Ming; LIU Dan; HE Min-Hua; YU Xiao-Ling; PAN Gui-Jun; SUN Hong-Zhang; SU Xiang-Ying; SUN Fan; YIN Yan-Ping; LI Rui

2006-01-01

We consider an epidemical model within socially interacting mobile individuals to study the behaviors of steady statesof epidemic propagation in 2D networks. Using mean-field approximation and large scale simulations, we recover the usual epidemic behavior with critical thresholds δc and pc below which infectious disease dies out. For the population density δ far above δc, it is found that there is linear relationship between contact rate λ and the population density δ in the main. At the same time, the result obtained from mean-field approximation is compared with our numerical result, and it is found that these two results are similar by and large but not completely the same.

Volume growth rate of acoustic neurinomas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laasonen, E.M.; Troupp, H.

1986-01-01

Of 79 acoustic neurinomas seen between June 1980 and June 1984, at least two CT scans were available for each of 23 tumours (21 patients); the scans were performed at intervals of at least 6 months. The volume growth rate of the tumours was either moderate, with a volume doubling time ranging from 205 to 545 days, or slow, with a doubling time ranging from 1090 days to no observable growth. No single clinical, radiological or histological feature correlated with any type of growth rate. However, some conclusions were drawn. If a primary CT scan is negative, at least 1 year should elapse before it is worthwhile taking another scan, even though audiological findings suggest growth; after an apparently radical removal, at least 3 years should elapse before a check CT scan is worthwhile; and if a small acoustic neurinoma is diagnosed, but for some reason not operated upon, a second CT scan should be carried out 1 year later in order to reassess the case. (orig.)

Hopf Bifurcation of a Delayed Epidemic Model with Information Variable and Limited Medical Resources

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Caijuan Yan

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We consider SIR epidemic model in which population growth is subject to logistic growth in absence of disease. We get the condition for Hopf bifurcation of a delayed epidemic model with information variable and limited medical resources. By analyzing the corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of an endemic equilibrium and a disease-free equilibrium is discussed. If the basic reproduction ratio ℛ01, we obtain sufficient conditions under which the endemic equilibrium E* of system is locally asymptotically stable. And we also have discussed the stability and direction of Hopf bifurcations. Numerical simulations are carried out to explain the mathematical conclusions.

Epidemic typhus.

Science.gov (United States)

Bechah, Yassina; Capo, Christian; Mege, Jean-Louis; Raoult, Didier

2008-07-01

Epidemic typhus is transmitted to human beings by the body louse Pediculus humanus corporis. The disease is still considered a major threat by public-health authorities, despite the efficacy of antibiotics, because poor sanitary conditions are conducive to louse proliferation. Until recently, Rickettsia prowazekii, the causal agent, was thought to be confined to human beings and their body lice. Since 1975, R prowazekii infection in human beings has been related to contact with the flying squirrel Glaucomys volans in the USA. Moreover, Brill-Zinsser disease, a relapsed form of epidemic typhus that appears as sporadic cases many years after the initial infection, is unrelated to louse infestation. Stress or a waning immune system are likely to reactivate this earlier persistent infection, which could be the source of new epidemics when conditions facilitate louse infestation. Finally, R prowazekii is a potential category B bioterrorism agent, because it is stable in dried louse faeces and can be transmitted through aerosols. An increased understanding of the pathogenesis of epidemic typhus may be useful for protection against this bacterial threat.

Suppressing epidemic spreading by risk-averse migration in dynamical networks

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Han-Xin; Tang, Ming; Wang, Zhen

2018-01-01

In this paper, we study the interplay between individual behaviors and epidemic spreading in a dynamical network. We distribute agents on a square-shaped region with periodic boundary conditions. Every agent is regarded as a node of the network and a wireless link is established between two agents if their geographical distance is less than a certain radius. At each time, every agent assesses the epidemic situation and make decisions on whether it should stay in or leave its current place. An agent will leave its current place with a speed if the number of infected neighbors reaches or exceeds a critical value E. Owing to the movement of agents, the network's structure is dynamical. Interestingly, we find that there exists an optimal value of E leading to the maximum epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be effectively controlled by risk-averse migration. Besides, we find that the epidemic threshold increases as the recovering rate increases, decreases as the contact radius increases, and is maximized by an optimal moving speed. Our findings offer a deeper understanding of epidemic spreading in dynamical networks.

Money Supply, Interest Rate, and Economic Growth in Cameroon: A ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Money Supply, Interest Rate, and Economic Growth in Cameroon: A Time Series ... the impacts of money and interest rate on economic growth and development. ... Money Supply, Interest Rates, Economic growth, Co-integration and Inflation.

Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Y.; Xiao, G.

2012-01-01

We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Y. [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore); Institute of High Performance Computing, Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A-STAR), Singapore 138632 (Singapore); Xiao, G., E-mail: egxxiao@ntu.edu.sg [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore)

2012-09-03

We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

Response of Escherichia coli growth rate to osmotic shock.

Science.gov (United States)

Rojas, Enrique; Theriot, Julie A; Huang, Kerwyn Casey

2014-05-27

It has long been proposed that turgor pressure plays an essential role during bacterial growth by driving mechanical expansion of the cell wall. This hypothesis is based on analogy to plant cells, for which this mechanism has been established, and on experiments in which the growth rate of bacterial cultures was observed to decrease as the osmolarity of the growth medium was increased. To distinguish the effect of turgor pressure from pressure-independent effects that osmolarity might have on cell growth, we monitored the elongation of single Escherichia coli cells while rapidly changing the osmolarity of their media. By plasmolyzing cells, we found that cell-wall elastic strain did not scale with growth rate, suggesting that pressure does not drive cell-wall expansion. Furthermore, in response to hyper- and hypoosmotic shock, E. coli cells resumed their preshock growth rate and relaxed to their steady-state rate after several minutes, demonstrating that osmolarity modulates growth rate slowly, independently of pressure. Oscillatory hyperosmotic shock revealed that although plasmolysis slowed cell elongation, the cells nevertheless "stored" growth such that once turgor was reestablished the cells elongated to the length that they would have attained had they never been plasmolyzed. Finally, MreB dynamics were unaffected by osmotic shock. These results reveal the simple nature of E. coli cell-wall expansion: that the rate of expansion is determined by the rate of peptidoglycan insertion and insertion is not directly dependent on turgor pressure, but that pressure does play a basic role whereby it enables full extension of recently inserted peptidoglycan.

Can we estimate bacterial growth rates from ribosomal RNA content?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kemp, P.F.

1995-12-31

Several studies have demonstrated a strong relationship between the quantity of RNA in bacterial cells and their growth rate under laboratory conditions. It may be possible to use this relationship to provide information on the activity of natural bacterial communities, and in particular on growth rate. However, if this approach is to provide reliably interpretable information, the relationship between RNA content and growth rate must be well-understood. In particular, a requisite of such applications is that the relationship must be universal among bacteria, or alternately that the relationship can be determined and measured for specific bacterial taxa. The RNA-growth rate relationship has not been used to evaluate bacterial growth in field studies, although RNA content has been measured in single cells and in bulk extracts of field samples taken from coastal environments. These measurements have been treated as probable indicators of bacterial activity, but have not yet been interpreted as estimators of growth rate. The primary obstacle to such interpretations is a lack of information on biological and environmental factors that affect the RNA-growth rate relationship. In this paper, the available data on the RNA-growth rate relationship in bacteria will be reviewed, including hypotheses regarding the regulation of RNA synthesis and degradation as a function of growth rate and environmental factors; i.e. the basic mechanisms for maintaining RNA content in proportion to growth rate. An assessment of the published laboratory and field data, the current status of this research area, and some of the remaining questions will be presented.

Resistive Wall Growth Rate Measurements in the Fermilab Recycler

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ainsworth, R. [Fermilab; Adamson, P. [Fermilab; Burov, A. [Fermilab; Kourbanis, I. [Fermilab

2016-10-05

Impedance could represent a limitation of running high intensity beams in the Fermilab recycler. With high intensity upgrades foreseen, it is important to quantify the impedance. To do this,studies have been performed measuring the growth rate of presumably the resistive wall instability. The growth rates at varying intensities and chromaticities are shown. The measured growth rates are compared to ones calculated with the resistive wall impedance.

Effective Exchange Rate Classifications and Growth

OpenAIRE

Justin M. Dubas; Byung-Joo Lee; Nelson C. Mark

2005-01-01

We propose an econometric procedure for obtaining de facto exchange rate regime classifications which we apply to study the relationship between exchange rate regimes and economic growth. Our classification method models the de jure regimes as outcomes of a multinomial logit choice problem conditional on the volatility of a country's effective exchange rate, a bilateral exchange rate and international reserves. An `effective' de facto exchange rate regime classification is then obtained by as...

Does HIV/AIDS matter for economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mveyange, Anthony Francis; Skovsgaard, Christian; Lesner, Tine

Estimating the impact of HIV/AIDS epidemic on economic growth is challenging because of endogeneity concerns. In this paper, we use novel data on male circumcision and distance from the first HIV outbreak as instrumental variables for the HIV/AIDS epidemic in 241 regions across 25 countries in sub......-Saharan Africa during 2003–12. Our main finding shows that the impact of HIV/AIDS epidemic on economic growth is negative but statistically insignificant. Further investigation on the main channels through which HIV/AIDS may affect economic growth—namely human capital, population growth, and productivity......—finds no impacts of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on these channels....

Modeling Epidemic Network Failures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

2013-01-01

This paper presents the implementation of a failure propagation model for transport networks when multiple failures occur resulting in an epidemic. We model the Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model and validate it by comparing it to analytical solutions. Furthermore, we evaluate...... the SID model’s behavior and impact on the network performance, as well as the severity of the infection spreading. The simulations are carried out in OPNET Modeler. The model provides an important input to epidemic connection recovery mechanisms, and can due to its flexibility and versatility be used...... to evaluate multiple epidemic scenarios in various network types....

Hay fever, a post industrial revolution epidemic: a history of its growth during the 19th century.

Science.gov (United States)

Emanuel, M B

1988-05-01

Although other forms of allergic disease were described in antiquity, hay fever is surprisingly modern. Very rare descriptions can be traced back to Islamic texts of the 9th century and European texts of the 16th century. It was only in the early 19th century that the disease was carefully described and at that time was regarded as most unusual. By the end of the 19th century it had become commonplace in both Europe and North America. This paper attempts to chart the growth of hay fever through the medical literature of the 19th century. It is hoped that an understanding of the increase in prevalence between 1820 and 1900 may provide an insight for modern researchers and give some clues into possible reasons for the epidemic nature of the disease today.

Re-assessing copepod growth using the Moult Rate method

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hirst, Andrew G.; Keister, J. E.; Richardson, A. J.

2014-01-01

Estimating growth and production rates of mesozooplankton, and copepods in particular, is important in describing flows of material and energy though pelagic systems. Over the past 30 years, the Moult Rate (MR) method has been used to estimate juvenile copepod growth rates in ∼40 papers. Yet the MR......-moulting stage, e.g. copepodite stage 5 to adult. We performed experiments with Calanus pacificus to estimate growth of stage C5 using an alternative method. We found that the error size and sign varied between mass type (i.e. DW, C and N). Recommendations for practical future assessments of growth in copepods...

The fastest spreader in SIS epidemics on networks

Science.gov (United States)

He, Zhidong; Van Mieghem, Piet

2018-05-01

Identifying the fastest spreaders in epidemics on a network helps to ensure an efficient spreading. By ranking the average spreading time for different spreaders, we show that the fastest spreader may change with the effective infection rate of a SIS epidemic process, which means that the time-dependent influence of a node is usually strongly coupled to the dynamic process and the underlying network. With increasing effective infection rate, we illustrate that the fastest spreader changes from the node with the largest degree to the node with the shortest flooding time. (The flooding time is the minimum time needed to reach all other nodes if the process is reduced to a flooding process.) Furthermore, by taking the local topology around the spreader and the average flooding time into account, we propose the spreading efficiency as a metric to quantify the efficiency of a spreader and identify the fastest spreader, which is adaptive to different infection rates in general networks.

Predicting epidemic outbreak from individual features of the spreaders

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Da Silva, Renato Aparecido Pimentel; Viana, Matheus Palhares; Da Fontoura Costa, Luciano

2012-01-01

Knowing which individuals can be more efficient in spreading a pathogen throughout a determinate environment is a fundamental question in disease control. Indeed, over recent years the spread of epidemic diseases and its relationship with the topology of the involved system have been a recurrent topic in complex network theory, taking into account both network models and real-world data. In this paper we explore possible correlations between the heterogeneous spread of an epidemic disease governed by the susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) model, and several attributes of the originating vertices, considering Erdös–Rényi (ER), Barabási–Albert (BA) and random geometric graphs (RGG), as well as a real case study, the US air transportation network, which comprises the 500 busiest airports in the US along with inter-connections. Initially, the heterogeneity of the spreading is achieved by considering the RGG networks, in which we analytically derive an expression for the distribution of the spreading rates among the established contacts, by assuming that such rates decay exponentially with the distance that separates the individuals. Such a distribution is also considered for the ER and BA models, where we observe topological effects on the correlations. In the case of the airport network, the spreading rates are empirically defined, assumed to be directly proportional to the seat availability. Among both the theoretical and real networks considered, we observe a high correlation between the total epidemic prevalence and the degree, as well as the strength and the accessibility of the epidemic sources. For attributes such as the betweenness centrality and the k-shell index, however, the correlation depends on the topology considered. (paper)

The Obesity Epidemic: A Call for Health Educators to Lead--A Commentary

Science.gov (United States)

Snelling, Anastasia

2012-01-01

The childhood obesity epidemic is one of the defining health challenges of this decade and perhaps the 21st century. Obesity rates among youths have nearly tripled in the past three decades. Solving the obesity epidemic requires that students understand and accept the changes within the environment and ultimately modify their health behaviors to…

[Epidemic situation and prevention and control strategy of clonorchiasis in Guangdong Province, China].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhuo-Hui, Deng; Yue-Yi, Fang

2016-05-24

Clonorchiasis is one of the food-borne parasitic diseases. Adult parasites live in the human liver and gallbladder tube system, causing serious complications, such as gallstones, cholecystitis and cholangitis, and even bile duct cancer. The disease is very popular in our country, and the population infection rate is high. It is an important public health problem. Guangdong Province is the earliest province being found of clonorchiasis and with serious epidemic. In the second national human parasitic diseases distribution survey, the results showed that the average infection rate of Clonorchis sinensis in the epidemic areas in Guangdong was 16.42%. It is estimated that the population of C. sinensis infection is over 6 million. The prevention and control of clonorchiasis in China is still in the initial stage currently and we face many challenges such as unclear epidemic characteristics and transmission mode, and lack of long-term prevention and control mechanism. This article introduces the epidemic situation of clonorchiasis and prevention and control strategies and measures in Guangdong.

Divergent biparietal diameter growth rates in twin pregnancies.

Science.gov (United States)

Houlton, M C

1977-05-01

Twenty-eight twin pregnancies were monitored by serial ultrasonic cephalometry from 30 or 31 weeks' gestation. The rates of growth of the individual twins as determined by biparietal diameters were similar in 11 cases (39%) and divergent in 17 (61%). When the rates of growth were divergent, the lesser rate was always below the mean for singleton pregnancies, and the incidence of small-for-gestational-age babies was 18 of 34 (53%). It was apparent that the greater the difference in biparietal diameters within the 2 weeks preceding delivery, the higher the risk of a small-for-gestation-age baby being delivered. No comment could be made on the growth rate prior to 28 weeks except that at diagnosis there was little or no difference in biparietal diameters.

Preliminary observation of genital secretions, growth rate and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Cane rats are large terrestial rodents which have the potential to increase animal protein intake. There is paucity of information on the genital secretions and growth rate of caged cane rats. This study observed the genital secretions, growth rate, feeds, feeding and the behaviour of caged cane rats. When animals adjusted to ...

Seasonal variations in ectotherm growth rates: Quantifying growth as an intermittent non steady state compensatory process

Science.gov (United States)

Guarini, J.-M.; Chauvaud, Laurent; Cloern, J.E.; Clavier, J.; Coston-Guarini, J.; Patry, Y.

2011-01-01

Generally, growth rates of living organisms are considered to be at steady state, varying only under environmental forcing factors. For example, these rates may be described as a function of light for plants or organic food resources for animals and these could be regulated (or not) by temperature or other conditions. But, what are the consequences for an individual's growth (and also for the population growth) if growth rate variations are themselves dynamic and not steady state? For organisms presenting phases of dormancy or long periods of stress, this is a crucial question. A dynamic perspective for quantifying short-term growth was explored using the daily growth record of the scallop Pecten maximus (L.). This species is a good biological model for ectotherm growth because the shell records growth striae daily. Independently, a generic mathematical function representing the dynamics of mean daily growth rate (MDGR) was implemented to simulate a diverse set of growth patterns. Once the function was calibrated with the striae patterns, the growth rate dynamics appeared as a forced damped oscillation during the growth period having a basic periodicity during two transitory phases (mean duration 43. days) and appearing at both growth start and growth end. This phase is most likely due to the internal dynamics of energy transfer within the organism rather than to external forcing factors. After growth restart, the transitory regime represents successive phases of over-growth and regulation. This pattern corresponds to a typical representation of compensatory growth, which from an evolutionary perspective can be interpreted as an adaptive strategy to coping with a fluctuating environment. ?? 2011 Elsevier B.V.

Epidemic as a natural process.

Science.gov (United States)

Koivu-Jolma, Mikko; Annila, Arto

2018-05-01

Mathematical epidemiology is a well-recognized discipline to model infectious diseases. It also provides guidance for public health officials to limit outbreaks. Nevertheless, epidemics take societies by surprise every now and then, for example, when the Ebola virus epidemic raged seemingly unrestrained in Western Africa. We provide insight to this capricious character of nature by describing the epidemic as a natural process, i.e., a phenomenon governed by thermodynamics. Our account, based on statistical mechanics of open systems, clarifies that it is impossible to predict accurately epidemic courses because everything depends on everything else. Nonetheless, the thermodynamic theory yields a comprehensive and analytical view of the epidemic. The tenet subsumes various processes in a scale-free manner from the molecular to the societal levels. The holistic view accentuates overarching procedures in arresting and eradicating epidemics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cyber Epidemic Models with Dependences

OpenAIRE

Xu, Maochao; Da, Gaofeng; Xu, Shouhuai

2016-01-01

Studying models of cyber epidemics over arbitrary complex networks can deepen our understanding of cyber security from a whole-system perspective. In this paper, we initiate the investigation of cyber epidemic models that accommodate the {\\em dependences} between the cyber attack events. Due to the notorious difficulty in dealing with such dependences, essentially all existing cyber epidemic models have assumed them away. Specifically, we introduce the idea of Copulas into cyber epidemic mode...

Resolving nanoparticle growth mechanisms from size- and time-dependent growth rate analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Pichelstorfer, Lukas; Stolzenburg, Dominik; Ortega, John; Karl, Thomas; Kokkola, Harri; Laakso, Anton; Lehtinen, Kari E. J.; Smith, James N.; McMurry, Peter H.; Winkler, Paul M.

2018-01-01

Atmospheric new particle formation occurs frequently in the global atmosphere and may play a crucial role in climate by affecting cloud properties. The relevance of newly formed nanoparticles depends largely on the dynamics governing their initial formation and growth to sizes where they become important for cloud microphysics. One key to the proper understanding of nanoparticle effects on climate is therefore hidden in the growth mechanisms. In this study we have developed and successfully tested two independent methods based on the aerosol general dynamics equation, allowing detailed retrieval of time- and size-dependent nanoparticle growth rates. Both methods were used to analyze particle formation from two different biogenic precursor vapors in controlled chamber experiments. Our results suggest that growth rates below 10 nm show much more variation than is currently thought and pin down the decisive size range of growth at around 5 nm where in-depth studies of physical and chemical particle properties are needed.

Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao, Dawei; Li, Lixiang; Peng, Haipeng; Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian

2014-01-01

This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhao, Dawei [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Computer Network, Shandong Computer Science Center, Jinan 250014 (China); Li, Lixiang [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Peng, Haipeng, E-mail: penghaipeng@bupt.edu.cn [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China)

2014-02-01

This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

Reconstructing the AIDS epidemic among injection drug users in Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Hacker, Mariana A; Leite, Iuri C; Renton, Adrian; Torres, Tania Guillén de; Gracie, Renata; Bastos, Francisco I

2006-04-01

The HIV/AIDS epidemic among injection drug users (IDUs) in Brazil has been unique in terms of temporal and geographical contrasts. This analysis explores these contrasts through the use of multilevel modeling. Standardized AIDS incidence rates among IDUs for Brazilian municipalities (1986-2000) were used as the dependent variable, with a set of social indicators as independent variables (covariates). In some States of the North/Northeast, the epidemic among IDUs has been incipient. The São Paulo epidemic extended to reach a network of municipalities, most of which located far from the capital. More recently, on a smaller scale, a similar extension has been observed in the southernmost States of the country. Both "number of physicians per inhabitant" and "standard distance to the State capital" were found to be associated with AIDS incidence. AIDS cases among IDUs appeared to cluster in wealthier, more developed municipalities. The relative weight of such extensive dissemination in key, heavily populated States prevails in the Brazilian IDU epidemic, defining a central-western-southeastern strip of wealthier middle-sized municipalities and more recently a southern strip of municipalities deeply affected by the epidemic in this population.

Reconstructing the AIDS epidemic among injection drug users in Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mariana A. Hacker

2006-04-01

Full Text Available The HIV/AIDS epidemic among injection drug users (IDUs in Brazil has been unique in terms of temporal and geographical contrasts. This analysis explores these contrasts through the use of multilevel modeling. Standardized AIDS incidence rates among IDUs for Brazilian municipalities (1986-2000 were used as the dependent variable, with a set of social indicators as independent variables (covariates. In some States of the North/Northeast, the epidemic among IDUs has been incipient. The São Paulo epidemic extended to reach a network of municipalities, most of which located far from the capital. More recently, on a smaller scale, a similar extension has been observed in the southernmost States of the country. Both "number of physicians per inhabitant" and "standard distance to the State capital" were found to be associated with AIDS incidence. AIDS cases among IDUs appeared to cluster in wealthier, more developed municipalities. The relative weight of such extensive dissemination in key, heavily populated States prevails in the Brazilian IDU epidemic, defining a central-western-southeastern strip of wealthier middle-sized municipalities and more recently a southern strip of municipalities deeply affected by the epidemic in this population.

Estimation of the growth curve and heritability of the growth rate for giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) cubs.

Science.gov (United States)

Che, T D; Wang, C D; Jin, L; Wei, M; Wu, K; Zhang, Y H; Zhang, H M; Li, D S

2015-03-27

Giant panda cubs have a low survival rate during the newborn and early growth stages. However, the growth and developmental parameters of giant panda cubs during the early lactation stage (from birth to 6 months) are not well known. We examined the growth and development of giant panda cubs by the Chapman growth curve model and estimated the heritability of the maximum growth rate at the early lactation stage. We found that 83 giant panda cubs reached their maximum growth rate at approximately 75-120 days after birth. The body weight of cubs at 75 days was 4285.99 g. Furthermore, we estimated that the heritability of the maximum growth rate was moderate (h(2) = 0.38). Our study describes the growth and development of giant panda cubs at the early lactation stage and provides valuable growth benchmarks. We anticipate that our results will be a starting point for more detailed research on increasing the survival rate of giant panda cubs. Feeding programs for giant panda cubs need further improvement.

The looming epidemic of diabetes-associated tuberculosis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harries, A D; Lin, Y; Satyanarayana, S

2011-01-01

The prevalence of diabetes mellitus is increasing at a dramatic rate, and countries in Asia, particularly India and China, will bear the brunt of this epidemic. Persons with diabetes have a significantly increased risk of active tuberculosis (TB), which is two to three times higher than in persons...

Exchange Rate Fluctuation and the Nigeria Economic Growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lawal Adedoyin Isola

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on economic growth in Nigeria within the context of four profound theories: purchasing power parity; monetary model of exchange rates; the portfolio balance approach; and the optimal currency area theory. Data was collected from the CBN statistical bulletin in Nigeria from 2003– 2013and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL model was employed to estimate the model. In the model, real GDP (RGDP was used as the proxy for economic growth while Inflation rate (IF, Exchange rate (EXC, Interest rate (INT and Money Supply(M2 as proxies for other macroeconomic variables. The empirical results show that exchange rate fluctuation has no effect on economic growth in the long run though a short run relationship exist between the two. Based on these findings, this paper recommends that the Central bank for policy purposes should ensure that stern foreign exchange control policies are put in place in order to help in appropriate determination of the value of the exchange rate. This will in the long run help to strengthen the value of the Naira.

Sensitivity analysis of an individual-based model for simulation of influenza epidemics.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elaine O Nsoesie

Full Text Available Individual-based epidemiology models are increasingly used in the study of influenza epidemics. Several studies on influenza dynamics and evaluation of intervention measures have used the same incubation and infectious period distribution parameters based on the natural history of influenza. A sensitivity analysis evaluating the influence of slight changes to these parameters (in addition to the transmissibility would be useful for future studies and real-time modeling during an influenza pandemic.In this study, we examined individual and joint effects of parameters and ranked parameters based on their influence on the dynamics of simulated epidemics. We also compared the sensitivity of the model across synthetic social networks for Montgomery County in Virginia and New York City (and surrounding metropolitan regions with demographic and rural-urban differences. In addition, we studied the effects of changing the mean infectious period on age-specific epidemics. The research was performed from a public health standpoint using three relevant measures: time to peak, peak infected proportion and total attack rate. We also used statistical methods in the design and analysis of the experiments. The results showed that: (i minute changes in the transmissibility and mean infectious period significantly influenced the attack rate; (ii the mean of the incubation period distribution appeared to be sufficient for determining its effects on the dynamics of epidemics; (iii the infectious period distribution had the strongest influence on the structure of the epidemic curves; (iv the sensitivity of the individual-based model was consistent across social networks investigated in this study and (v age-specific epidemics were sensitive to changes in the mean infectious period irrespective of the susceptibility of the other age groups. These findings suggest that small changes in some of the disease model parameters can significantly influence the uncertainty

Heterogeneous network epidemics: real-time growth, variance and extinction of infection.

Science.gov (United States)

Ball, Frank; House, Thomas

2017-09-01

Recent years have seen a large amount of interest in epidemics on networks as a way of representing the complex structure of contacts capable of spreading infections through the modern human population. The configuration model is a popular choice in theoretical studies since it combines the ability to specify the distribution of the number of contacts (degree) with analytical tractability. Here we consider the early real-time behaviour of the Markovian SIR epidemic model on a configuration model network using a multitype branching process. We find closed-form analytic expressions for the mean and variance of the number of infectious individuals as a function of time and the degree of the initially infected individual(s), and write down a system of differential equations for the probability of extinction by time t that are numerically fast compared to Monte Carlo simulation. We show that these quantities are all sensitive to the degree distribution-in particular we confirm that the mean prevalence of infection depends on the first two moments of the degree distribution and the variance in prevalence depends on the first three moments of the degree distribution. In contrast to most existing analytic approaches, the accuracy of these results does not depend on having a large number of infectious individuals, meaning that in the large population limit they would be asymptotically exact even for one initial infectious individual.

Effect of selection for relative growth rate and bodyweight of mice on rate, composition and efficiency of growth

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bakker, H.

1974-01-01

To evaluate the effect of selection for parameters of a growth curve, four selection lines and a control line were started from one base population. In the selection lines is selected for a large and a small relative growth rate between 21 and 29 days (RGH and RGL) and for a large and

Growth-rate-dependent dynamics of a bacterial genetic oscillator

Science.gov (United States)

Osella, Matteo; Lagomarsino, Marco Cosentino

2013-01-01

Gene networks exhibiting oscillatory dynamics are widespread in biology. The minimal regulatory designs giving rise to oscillations have been implemented synthetically and studied by mathematical modeling. However, most of the available analyses generally neglect the coupling of regulatory circuits with the cellular “chassis” in which the circuits are embedded. For example, the intracellular macromolecular composition of fast-growing bacteria changes with growth rate. As a consequence, important parameters of gene expression, such as ribosome concentration or cell volume, are growth-rate dependent, ultimately coupling the dynamics of genetic circuits with cell physiology. This work addresses the effects of growth rate on the dynamics of a paradigmatic example of genetic oscillator, the repressilator. Making use of empirical growth-rate dependencies of parameters in bacteria, we show that the repressilator dynamics can switch between oscillations and convergence to a fixed point depending on the cellular state of growth, and thus on the nutrients it is fed. The physical support of the circuit (type of plasmid or gene positions on the chromosome) also plays an important role in determining the oscillation stability and the growth-rate dependence of period and amplitude. This analysis has potential application in the field of synthetic biology, and suggests that the coupling between endogenous genetic oscillators and cell physiology can have substantial consequences for their functionality.

Structured Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Epidemics with Immigration and Demographic Effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Baumann, Hendrik; Sandmann, Werner

2016-01-01

Stochastic epidemics with open populations of variable population sizes are considered where due to immigration and demographic effects the epidemic does not eventually die out forever. The underlying stochastic processes are ergodic multi-dimensional continuous-time Markov chains that possess unique equilibrium probability distributions. Modeling these epidemics as level-dependent quasi-birth-and-death processes enables efficient computations of the equilibrium distributions by matrix-analytic methods. Numerical examples for specific parameter sets are provided, which demonstrates that this approach is particularly well-suited for studying the impact of varying rates for immigration, births, deaths, infection, recovery from infection, and loss of immunity.

Variation in coral growth rates with depth at Discovery Bay, Jamaica

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huston, M

1985-01-01

Growth rates, determined by X-radiographic measurement of skeletal extension, decreased with depth for four of six species of coral examined at Discovery Bay, Jamaica. Growth of Porites astreoides, Montastrea annularis, Colpophyllia natans, and Siderastrea siderea decreased significantly with depth over a 1- to 30-m depth range. In Montastrea cavernosa, the highest growth rate occurred in the middle of the sampled depth range. Agaricia agaricites had no measurable change in growth rate with depth. A compilation of available growth data for Atlantic and Pacific corals shows a strong pattern of highest growth rates a short distance below the surface and a decrease with depth.

Genome variability of foot-and-mouth disease virus during the short period of the 2010 epidemic in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Nishi, Tatsuya; Yamada, Manabu; Fukai, Katsuhiko; Shimada, Nobuaki; Morioka, Kazuki; Yoshida, Kazuo; Sakamoto, Kenichi; Kanno, Toru; Yamakawa, Makoto

2017-02-01

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is highly contagious and has a high mutation rate, leading to extensive genetic variation. To investigate how FMDV genetically evolves over a short period of an epidemic after initial introduction into an FMD-free area, whole L-fragment sequences of 104 FMDVs isolated from the 2010 epidemic in Japan, which continued for less than three months were determined and phylogenetically and comparatively analyzed. Phylogenetic analysis of whole L-fragment sequences showed that these isolates were classified into a single group, indicating that FMDV was introduced into Japan in the epidemic via a single introduction. Nucleotide sequences of 104 virus isolates showed more than 99.56% pairwise identity rates without any genetic deletion or insertion, although no sequences were completely identical with each other. These results indicate that genetic substitutions of FMDV occurred gradually and constantly during the epidemic and generation of an extensive mutant virus could have been prevented by rapid eradication strategy. From comparative analysis of variability of each FMDV protein coding region, VP4 and 2C regions showed the highest average identity rates and invariant rates, and were confirmed as highly conserved. In contrast, the protein coding regions VP2 and VP1 were confirmed to be highly variable regions with the lowest average identity rates and invariant rates, respectively. Our data demonstrate the importance of rapid eradication strategy in an FMD epidemic and provide valuable information on the genome variability of FMDV during the short period of an epidemic. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Data-Driven Air Transportation Delay Propagation Model Using Epidemic Process Models

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B. Baspinar

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In air transport network management, in addition to defining the performance behavior of the system’s components, identification of their interaction dynamics is a delicate issue in both strategic and tactical decision-making process so as to decide which elements of the system are “controlled” and how. This paper introduces a novel delay propagation model utilizing epidemic spreading process, which enables the definition of novel performance indicators and interaction rates of the elements of the air transportation network. In order to understand the behavior of the delay propagation over the network at different levels, we have constructed two different data-driven epidemic models approximating the dynamics of the system: (a flight-based epidemic model and (b airport-based epidemic model. The flight-based epidemic model utilizing SIS epidemic model focuses on the individual flights where each flight can be in susceptible or infected states. The airport-centric epidemic model, in addition to the flight-to-flight interactions, allows us to define the collective behavior of the airports, which are modeled as metapopulations. In network model construction, we have utilized historical flight-track data of Europe and performed analysis for certain days involving certain disturbances. Through this effort, we have validated the proposed delay propagation models under disruptive events.

Investigation of growth rate dispersion in lactose crystallisation by AFM

Science.gov (United States)

Dincer, T. D.; Ogden, M. I.; Parkinson, G. M.

2014-09-01

α-Lactose monohydrate crystals have been reported to exhibit growth rate dispersion (GRD). Variation in surface dislocations has been suggested as the cause of GRD, but this has not been further investigated to date. In this study, growth rate dispersion and the change in morphology were investigated in situ and via bottle roller experiments. The surfaces of the (0 1 0) faces of crystals were examined with Atomic Force Microscopy. Smaller, slow growing crystals tend to have smaller (0 1 0) faces with narrow bases and displayed a single double spiral in the centre of the crystal with 2 nm high steps. Additional double spirals in other crystals resulted in faster growth rates. Large, fast growing crystals were observed to have larger (0 1 0) faces with fast growth in both the a and b directions (giving a broader crystal base) with macro steps parallel to the (c direction). The number and location of spirals or existence of macro steps appears to influence the crystal morphology, growth rates and growth rate dispersion in lactose crystals.

GROWTH-RATES OF SHRUBS ON DIFFERENT SOILS IN TANZANIA

NARCIS (Netherlands)

PRINS, HHT; VANDERJEUGD, HP

1992-01-01

Because little is known of growth rates of shrubs in East Africa, the growth rates of Acalypha fructicosa, Gardenia jovis-tonantis, Justicia cordata, Maerua triphylla, and Ocimum suave were measured in Lake Manyara National Park, northern Tanzania. Branch diameter increments and branch length

Growth rates of shrubs on different soils in Tanzania.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Prins, H.H.T.; Jeugd, van der H.P.

1992-01-01

Because little is known of growth rates of shrubs in East Africa, the growth rates of Acalypha fructicosa, Gardenia jovis-tonantis, Justicia cordata, Maerua triphylla, and Ocimum suave were measured in Lake Manyara National Park, northern Tanzania. Branch diameter increments and branch length

Economic cost and burden of dengue during epidemics and non-epidemic years in Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dih-Ling Luh

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Background: Determining the disease and economic burden of dengue is critical for the allocation of public health resources. Several studies have used disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs to estimate the disease burden of dengue in different regions. However, there are no published studies discussing the estimates of dengue-related economic and disease burden specifically in Taiwan. Objectives: We assessed the economic cost and disease burden of dengue infections in Taiwan for the period 1998–2014, and compared these during epidemic and non-epidemic years. Methods: We estimated the annual DALYs per million population using the disability weights for dengue fever (DF, dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF, dengue shock syndrome (DSS, and death cases. Economic costs were estimated and divided into direct (medical costs and indirect costs (lost work days and caregiver fees. Results: For the period 1998–2014, a mean of 115.3 (range: 6.3–934.3 DALYs per million population annually were lost to dengue. In epidemic years, direct costs associated with dengue resulted mostly from hospitalization (86.09%, emergency (7.77%, outpatient (6.10%, and drug costs (0.03%. For indirect costs, lost productivity due to death (70.76% was the dominant contributor. Overall, the costs were 12.3 times higher in epidemic years than in non-epidemic years (Wilcoxon rank sum test, p < 0.05. Conclusions: This study is the first to evaluate the economic costs and disease burden of dengue infections for this period in Taiwan, and reveals significant differences in economic impact between epidemic and non-epidemic years. Keywords: Economic cost of disease, Disease burden, Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs, Dengue, Epidemic

Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

... Policy The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic Published: Nov 29, 2017 Facebook Twitter ... 2001-FY 2018 Request The Global Response to HIV/AIDS International efforts to combat HIV began in ...

Postnatal Growth Rates of Hummingbirds : Review and New Records

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Freymann, Bernd P.; Schuchmann, Karl-Ludwig

2008-01-01

We review the published information on postnatal growth rates of hummingbirds (13 species), and report previously unpublished records for nine additional trochilid species. The allometric relationship based on the log(10)-transformed data of K (logistic growth rate constant) and body mass has a

The Variance Composition of Firm Growth Rates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luiz Artur Ledur Brito

2009-04-01

Full Text Available Firms exhibit a wide variability in growth rates. This can be seen as another manifestation of the fact that firms are different from one another in several respects. This study investigated this variability using the variance components technique previously used to decompose the variance of financial performance. The main source of variation in growth rates, responsible for more than 40% of total variance, corresponds to individual, idiosyncratic firm aspects and not to industry, country, or macroeconomic conditions prevailing in specific years. Firm growth, similar to financial performance, is mostly unique to specific firms and not an industry or country related phenomenon. This finding also justifies using growth as an alternative outcome of superior firm resources and as a complementary dimension of competitive advantage. This also links this research with the resource-based view of strategy. Country was the second source of variation with around 10% of total variance. The analysis was done using the Compustat Global database with 80,320 observations, comprising 13,221 companies in 47 countries, covering the years of 1994 to 2002. It also compared the variance structure of growth to the variance structure of financial performance in the same sample.

Epidemic modeling in complex realities.

Science.gov (United States)

Colizza, Vittoria; Barthélemy, Marc; Barrat, Alain; Vespignani, Alessandro

2007-04-01

In our global world, the increasing complexity of social relations and transport infrastructures are key factors in the spread of epidemics. In recent years, the increasing availability of computer power has enabled both to obtain reliable data allowing one to quantify the complexity of the networks on which epidemics may propagate and to envision computational tools able to tackle the analysis of such propagation phenomena. These advances have put in evidence the limits of homogeneous assumptions and simple spatial diffusion approaches, and stimulated the inclusion of complex features and heterogeneities relevant in the description of epidemic diffusion. In this paper, we review recent progresses that integrate complex systems and networks analysis with epidemic modelling and focus on the impact of the various complex features of real systems on the dynamics of epidemic spreading.

Vertical instability in TCV: comparison of experimental and theoretical growth rates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hofmann, F.; Dutch, M.J.; Ward, D.J.; Anton, M.; Furno, I.; Lister, J.B.; Moret, J.M.

1996-12-01

Growth rates of the axisymmetric mode in vertically elongated plasmas in the TCV tokamak are measured and compared with numerically calculated growth rates for the reconstructed equilibria. This comparison is made over a range of discharge parameters including elongation, triangularity, and vertical position within the vacuum vessel. Growth rates increase with respect to increasing elongation, decreasing triangularity and increasing vertical distance from the top of the vacuum vessel, as expected. The agreement between the measured growth rates in the experiment and the numerically determined growth rates is excellent, in particular for the full linear MHD model which accounts for the non-rigid motion of strongly shaped plasma cross-sections. (author) 7 figs., 22 refs

Nd isotopes and crustal growth rate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Albarede, F.

1988-01-01

Sm/Nd isotopic constraints on crustal growth is discussed. In order to constrain Sm/Nd fractionation between continental crust and depleted mantle, an extensive data base of isotopic measurements (assumed to be adequately representative of continental crust) was compiled. The results imply that the evolution of depleted mantles was roughly linear, with no major discontinuities over the course of geologic time. This is different from other determinations of depleting mantle evolution, which show nonlinear behavior. The Sm/Nd evolution lines for continental crust and depleted mantle intersect between 3.8 to 4.0 Ga, which may indicate that the onset of continental growth was later than 4.5 Ga. A mathematical model is described, the results of which imply that time integrated crustal additions from the mantle are about 1.8 to 2.5 cu km/a, whereas crustal subtractions by sediment recycling are about 0.6 to 1.5 cu km/a. This results in a net time integrated crustal growth rate of about 1 cu km/a, which is similar to present day rates determined, for example, by Reymer and Schubert

Comparing Basal Area Growth Rates in Repeated Inventories: Simpson's Paradox in Forestry

Science.gov (United States)

Charles E. Thomas; Bernard R. Parresol

1989-01-01

Recent analyses of radial growth rates in southern commercial forests have shown that current rates are lower than past rates when compared diameter class by diameter class. These results have been interpreted as an indication that the growth rate of the forest is declining. In this paper, growth rates of forest populations in Alabama are studied. Basal area growth (a...

Improving epidemic malaria planning, preparedness and response in Southern Africa. Report on the 1st Southern African Regional Epidemic Outlook Forum, Harare, Zimbabwe, 26-29 September, 2004.

Science.gov (United States)

DaSilva, Joaquim; Garanganga, Brad; Teveredzi, Vonai; Marx, Sabine M; Mason, Simon J; Connor, Stephen J

2004-10-22

Malaria is a major public health problem for countries in the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC). While the endemicity of malaria varies enormously across this region, many of the countries have districts that are prone to periodic epidemics, which can be regional in their extent, and to resurgent outbreaks that are much more localized. These epidemics are frequently triggered by climate anomalies and often follow periods of drought. Many parts of Southern Africa have suffered rainfall deficit over the past three years and countries expect to see increased levels of malaria when the rains return to more 'normal' levels. Problems with drug and insecticide resistance are documented widely and the region contains countries with the highest rates of HIV prevalence to be found anywhere in the world. Consequently, many communities are vulnerable to severe disease outcomes should epidemics occur. The SADC countries have adopted the Abuja targets for Roll Back Malaria in Africa, which include improved epidemic detection and response, i.e., that 60% of epidemics will be detected within two weeks of onset, and 60% of epidemics will be responded to within two weeks of detection. The SADC countries recognize that to achieve these targets they need improved information on where and when to look for epidemics. The WHO integrated framework for improved early warning and early detection of malaria epidemics has been recognized as a potentially useful tool for epidemic preparedness and response planning. Following evidence of successful adoption and implementation of this approach in Botswana, the SADC countries, the WHO Southern Africa Inter-Country Programme on Malaria Control, and the SADC Drought Monitoring Centre decided to organize a regional meeting where countries could gather to assess their current control status and community vulnerability, consider changes in epidemic risk, and develop a detailed plan of action for the forthcoming 2004-2005 season. The

Parameter Scaling for Epidemic Size in a Spatial Epidemic Model with Mobile Individuals.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chiyori T Urabe

Full Text Available In recent years, serious infectious diseases tend to transcend national borders and widely spread in a global scale. The incidence and prevalence of epidemics are highly influenced not only by pathogen-dependent disease characteristics such as the force of infection, the latent period, and the infectious period, but also by human mobility and contact patterns. However, the effect of heterogeneous mobility of individuals on epidemic outcomes is not fully understood. Here, we aim to elucidate how spatial mobility of individuals contributes to the final epidemic size in a spatial susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR model with mobile individuals in a square lattice. After illustrating the interplay between the mobility parameters and the other parameters on the spatial epidemic spreading, we propose an index as a function of system parameters, which largely governs the final epidemic size. The main contribution of this study is to show that the proposed index is useful for estimating how parameter scaling affects the final epidemic size. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed index, we show that there is a positive correlation between the proposed index computed with the real data of human airline travels and the actual number of positive incident cases of influenza B in the entire world, implying that the growing incidence of influenza B is attributed to increased human mobility.

Protein thermodynamics can be predicted directly from biological growth rates.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ross Corkrey

Full Text Available Life on Earth is capable of growing from temperatures well below freezing to above the boiling point of water, with some organisms preferring cooler and others hotter conditions. The growth rate of each organism ultimately depends on its intracellular chemical reactions. Here we show that a thermodynamic model based on a single, rate-limiting, enzyme-catalysed reaction accurately describes population growth rates in 230 diverse strains of unicellular and multicellular organisms. Collectively these represent all three domains of life, ranging from psychrophilic to hyperthermophilic, and including the highest temperature so far observed for growth (122 °C. The results provide credible estimates of thermodynamic properties of proteins and obtain, purely from organism intrinsic growth rate data, relationships between parameters previously identified experimentally, thus bridging a gap between biochemistry and whole organism biology. We find that growth rates of both unicellular and multicellular life forms can be described by the same temperature dependence model. The model results provide strong support for a single highly-conserved reaction present in the last universal common ancestor (LUCA. This is remarkable in that it means that the growth rate dependence on temperature of unicellular and multicellular life forms that evolved over geological time spans can be explained by the same model.

Cholera epidemic among Rwandan refugees: experience of ICDDR,B in Goma, Zaire.

Science.gov (United States)

Siddique, A K

1994-01-01

In July 1994, one of the worst cholera epidemics broke out among the nearly a million Rwandan refugees in Goma, eastern Zaire. The United Nations High Commission for Refugees estimated that nearly 12,000 people died during the epidemic. The International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (ICDDR,B) sent an eight-member medical team to Goma headed by Dr AK Siddique, a senior scientist of the Center and head of the Epidemic Control Preparedness Program, Dacca, Bangladesh. During their two-week stay, the team, in collaboration with UNICEF and the Ministry of Health, Zaire, conducted epidemiological assessment, operated a temporary treatment center and provided technical advice on case management of cholera and shigellosis to other health workers. The team also set up a microbiology laboratory in Goma to identify the pathogens responsible for the epidemic and their drug sensitivity patterns. The team visited a number of temporary treatment facilities in two of the five camp sites and provided technical advice to the health-care providers. They also visited treatment facilities in Goma city, where an estimated 200,000 refugees were affected by the epidemic. Deaths from cholera even in the treatment centers were much higher than expected. The overall case-fatality rate in the treatment centers was nearly 15%. Laboratory investigations showed that the initial epidemic was indeed caused by Vibrio cholerae strains resistant to tetracycline and doxycycline. By the first week of August, the number of cholera cases was declining, but the number of dysentery cases was increasing rapidly. Predominantly Shigella dysenteriae type 1 was responsible, which was resistant to most drugs used for treating shigellosis, except mecillinam. Inappropriate rehydration therapy and inadequate experience of health workers failed to prevent deaths. The team took over the operation of temporary treatment center at Katindo in Goma city with one of the highest case-fatality rates (14

Stability analysis of multi-group deterministic and stochastic epidemic models with vaccination rate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Zhi-Gang; Gao Rui-Mei; Fan Xiao-Ming; Han Qi-Xing

2014-01-01

We discuss in this paper a deterministic multi-group MSIR epidemic model with a vaccination rate, the basic reproduction number ℛ 0 , a key parameter in epidemiology, is a threshold which determines the persistence or extinction of the disease. By using Lyapunov function techniques, we show if ℛ 0 is greater than 1 and the deterministic model obeys some conditions, then the disease will prevail, the infective persists and the endemic state is asymptotically stable in a feasible region. If ℛ 0 is less than or equal to 1, then the infective disappear so the disease dies out. In addition, stochastic noises around the endemic equilibrium will be added to the deterministic MSIR model in order that the deterministic model is extended to a system of stochastic ordinary differential equations. In the stochastic version, we carry out a detailed analysis on the asymptotic behavior of the stochastic model. In addition, regarding the value of ℛ 0 , when the stochastic system obeys some conditions and ℛ 0 is greater than 1, we deduce the stochastic system is stochastically asymptotically stable. Finally, the deterministic and stochastic model dynamics are illustrated through computer simulations. (general)

Individual Growth Rates of Nikolsky’s Viper, Vipera berus nikolskii (Squamata, Viperidae

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bondarenko Z. S.

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Capture-mark-recapture data was used to infer growth rates of the Nikolsky’s viper, Vipera berus nikolskii (Vedmederja, Grubant et Rudaeva, 1986, in the Eastern Ukraine. We have found that growth rate is negatively correlated with age. The difference in growth rates before maturation is not significant between different sexes. Growth rates decrease rapidly after maturation in males and females, however adult males retain significantly higher average growth rates. There is large dispersion of growth rates in the group of adult females, which is caused, probably, by alteration of complete arrest of growth in the years with reproduction and more intensive growth in the years without it. Asymptotic snout-ventral length estimated after Von Bertalanffy model was 680 mm in females and 630 mm in males. Females mature after fifth and males mature after fourth hibernation. The larger females in vipers can not be the result of higher growth rates in females, but are the outcome of a combination of other factors including different maturation time and size (older and being larger, and, perhaps, longer life span due to lower mortality. Growth rates of the Nikolsky’s viper in the nature are higher than in other species in the group of small Eurasian vipers.

Dinosaur Metabolism and the Allometry of Maximum Growth Rate

OpenAIRE

Myhrvold, Nathan P.

2016-01-01

The allometry of maximum somatic growth rate has been used in prior studies to classify the metabolic state of both extant vertebrates and dinosaurs. The most recent such studies are reviewed, and their data is reanalyzed. The results of allometric regressions on growth rate are shown to depend on the choice of independent variable; the typical choice used in prior studies introduces a geometric shear transformation that exaggerates the statistical power of the regressions. The maximum growth...

Structured Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Epidemics with Immigration and Demographic Effects.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hendrik Baumann

Full Text Available Stochastic epidemics with open populations of variable population sizes are considered where due to immigration and demographic effects the epidemic does not eventually die out forever. The underlying stochastic processes are ergodic multi-dimensional continuous-time Markov chains that possess unique equilibrium probability distributions. Modeling these epidemics as level-dependent quasi-birth-and-death processes enables efficient computations of the equilibrium distributions by matrix-analytic methods. Numerical examples for specific parameter sets are provided, which demonstrates that this approach is particularly well-suited for studying the impact of varying rates for immigration, births, deaths, infection, recovery from infection, and loss of immunity.

Global Changes in Food Supply and the Obesity Epidemic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zobel, Emilie H.; Hansen, Tine W; Rossing, Peter

2016-01-01

power and available per capita food. Supermarkets and a growing fast-food industry have transformed our dietary pattern. Ultra-processed food rich on sugars and saturated fat is now the major source of energy in most countries. The shift in food supply is considered a major driver of the obesity......Purpose of Review We explore how a global shift in the food system caused by global economic growth, increase in available food per capita and in food processing is a driver of the obesity epidemic. Recent Findings Economic development in most areas of the world has resulted in increased purchasing...... epidemic and the increasing prevalence of accompanying complications, such as type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and cancer. However, the global shift might also have direct effects on the increase in type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and cancer, independently of overweight and obesity. Summary...

Hepatitis E epidemics in India

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The first well recorded epidemic was in 1955-56 here in Delhi with nearly 30000 cases. Large outbreaks occurred in 1978 in Kashmir. My interest in this disease began in 1991 during investigations into a large epidemic of hepatitis E in Kanpur that my mentor, later Prof SR Naik, and I undertook. I will use this epidemic as an ...

Association of Drought with Typhus Epidemics in Central Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Acuna-Soto, R.; Stahle, D.; Villanueva Diaz, J.; Therrell, M.

2007-05-01

Typhus is an acute infectious disease caused by the bacteria Rickettsia prowazekii, which is transmitted among humans by the body lice (Pediculus humanus corporis). The disease is highly contagious and transmission is favored in populations living in crowded conditions. Under these circumstances, typhus transmission is facilitated by factors that favor the colonization and proliferation of body lice such as absence of personal hygiene and wearing the same clothes for long periods of time. Historically, periods of war and famine were associated with devastating epidemics with high mortality rates in many parts of the world. Central Mexico has a long record of typhus epidemics. In this region, at > 2000 meters above sea level, the disease was endemic and occurred with a seasonal pattern in winter, with occasional large epidemics. Recently, we completed a chronology of epidemics in Mexico. A total of 22 well-defined major typhus epidemics were identified between 1650 and 1920. All of them caused periods of increased mortality that lasted 2 - 4 years (more than one standard deviation from the previous ten year period). The record of typhus epidemics was evaluated against the tree-ring record of Cuauhtmoc La Fragua, Puebla. This chronology, based on Douglas fir, has demonstrated to be a faithful record of precipitation in central Mexico. The results indicate that a statistically significant drought (t test, p first year of all 22 large outbreaks of typhus in recent Mexican history. No distinction is made between times of peace and war. This indicates that drought alone was capable of inducing the social conditions for increased transmission of typhus in pre-industrial central Mexico.

Outbreak of epidemic keratoconjunctivitis caused by adenovirus in medical residents.

Science.gov (United States)

Melendez, Carlos Pantoja; Florentino, Margarita Matias; Martinez, Irma Lopez; Lopez, Herlinda Mejia

2009-01-01

The present work documents an outbreak of epidemic keratoconjunctivitis among ophthalmology residents, its influence in the presentation of the community cases, the use of molecular techniques for its diagnosis, and the implementation of successful control measures for its containment. Isolation of the etiologic agent was achieved using cultured African green monkey kidney epithelial cells (VERO). Through molecular tests, such as polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and DNA sequencing, the genotype of the isolated virus was identified. The sequences obtained were aligned with data reported in the NCBI GenBank. A scheme of outbreak control measures was designed to enforce correct sanitary measures in the clinic. The statistical program, Epi info 2002, and openepi were used to determine the attack rate. The Excel Microsoft program was used to elaborate the endemic channel. Nine of the ten samples studied were isolated from the culture and identified by Adenovirus-specifc PCR. Sequencing allowed identification of Ad8 as the agent responsible for the outbreak. The attack rate was 24.39 cases per 100. The epidemic curve allowed identification of a disseminated source in the Institute of Ophthalmology "Conde de Valenciana." It was not possible to calculate the incubation periods among the cases. The endemic channel showed the presence of an epidemic keratoconjunctivitis among the patients that had been cared for at the out-patient services of the institute. One outbreak of a disseminated source caused by Ad8 was detected in the institute among its medical residents, probably associated with relaxation of the habitual sanitary measures during an epidemic of hemorrhagic conjunctivitis among the patients cared for at the institute. The proposed scheme to control the outbreak allowed for its containment and controlled the epidemic of associated cases.

Effect of feeding frequency and feeding rate on growth of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Effect of feeding frequency and feeding rate on growth of Oreochromis mossambicus (Teleostei: Cichlidae) fry. ... Weight gain, specific growth rate and gross food conversion ratio were significantly affected by ... AJOL African Journals Online.

[The depression epidemic does not exist].

Science.gov (United States)

van der Feltz-Cornelis, Christina M

2009-01-01

There has been much discussion in the media about the question of the existence of a depression epidemic. This leads on to the questions of whether the social and economic approaches are adequate, and what the alternatives are. The concept of the disease 'depression' can be defined using a medical model, or from a patient's or a societal perspective. From a medical perspective, indeed a depression epidemic has ensued from the increased prosperity and the associated decompression of the mortality rate. Society responded with preventative measures and policies aimed at improving functioning in the workplace. However, patients with a major depressive disorder (MDD) who are eligible for treatment are often not motivated to take it up, or are undertreated. Research is necessary in order to explore what patients think about the identification and treatment of depression. The confusion regarding the concept of depression found in the media, needs to be cleared.

Growth rates of breeder reactor fuel. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ott, K.O.

1979-01-01

During the contract period, a consistent formalism for the definition of the growth rates (and thus the doubling time) of breeder reactor fuel has been developed. This formalism was then extended to symbiotic operation of breeder and converter reactors. Further, an estimation prescription for the growth rate has been developed which is based upon the breeding worth factors. The characteristics of this definition have been investigated, which led to an additional integral concept, the breeding bonus

Effects of lowered pH on marine phytoplankton growth rates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Berge, Terje; Daugbjerg, Niels; Andersen, Betinna Balling

2010-01-01

concentration of seawater. Ocean acidification may potentially both stimulate and reduce primary production by marine phytoplankton. Data are scarce on the response of marine phytoplankton growth rates to lowered pH/increased CO2. Using the acid addition method to lower the seawater pH and manipulate...... the carbonate system, we determined in detail the lower pH limit for growth rates of 2 model species of common marine phytoplankton. We also tested whether growth and production rates of 6 other common species of phytoplankton were affected by ocean acidification (lowered to pH 7.0). The lower pH limits...... statistically similar in the pH range of ~7.0 to 8.5. Our results and literature reports on growth at lowered pH indicate that marine phytoplankton in general are resistant to climate change in terms of ocean acidification, and do not increase or decrease their growth rates according to ecological relevant...

Long-range epidemic spreading in a random environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Juhász, Róbert; Kovács, István A; Iglói, Ferenc

2015-03-01

Modeling long-range epidemic spreading in a random environment, we consider a quenched, disordered, d-dimensional contact process with infection rates decaying with distance as 1/rd+σ. We study the dynamical behavior of the model at and below the epidemic threshold by a variant of the strong-disorder renormalization-group method and by Monte Carlo simulations in one and two spatial dimensions. Starting from a single infected site, the average survival probability is found to decay as P(t)∼t-d/z up to multiplicative logarithmic corrections. Below the epidemic threshold, a Griffiths phase emerges, where the dynamical exponent z varies continuously with the control parameter and tends to zc=d+σ as the threshold is approached. At the threshold, the spatial extension of the infected cluster (in surviving trials) is found to grow as R(t)∼t1/zc with a multiplicative logarithmic correction and the average number of infected sites in surviving trials is found to increase as Ns(t)∼(lnt)χ with χ=2 in one dimension.

Modification of cell growth rate by irradiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Itoh, Hisao; Takemasa, Kazuhiko; Nishiguchi, Iku; Ka, Wei-Jei; Kutsuki, Shoji; Hashimoto, Shozo

1993-01-01

The effect of irradiation on the proliferation kinetics of the monolayer cells has been studied. Two human cell lines with different doubling times (HeLa-P and RMUG) and two clones that have the same radiosensitivity but different doubling times (HeLa-R and HeLa-S) were irradiated with a daily dose of 2 Gy for 6 days. The number of the clonogenic cells/dish was calculated by multiplying the number of total cell/dish by the survival fraction. In the rapidly growing cells (HeLa-P, HeLa-R), the number of the clonogenic cells was not decreased by the first two fractionated irradiations, but decreased thereafter at a similar rate as by single-dose fractionation, whereas the clonogenic cell number decreased from the first fractionated irradiation in the slowly growing cells (RMUG, HeLa-S). When the proliferation of clonogenic cell number increased along with a similar growth rates that was seen in all other types of cells. Further, no correlation was seen between the growth rates of cells without irradiation and cells that received irradiation. This latter result suggests that the slow growth rate of non-irradiated cells may not be the predictive factor of the tumor cure and the interruption of radiotherapy may reduce the beneficial effect of this treatment even in slow growing tumors. (author)

A threshold limit theorem for the stochastic logistic epidemic

OpenAIRE

Andersson, Håkan; Djehiche, Boualem

1998-01-01

The time until extinction for the closed SIS stochastic logistic epidemic model is investigated. We derive the asymptotic distribution for the extinction time as the population grows to infinity, under different initial conditions and for different values of the infection rate.

Outbreak or Epidemic? How Obama's Language Choice Transformed the Ebola Outbreak Into an Epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Shir-Raz, Yaffa; Bar-Lev, Oshrat Sassoni; James, James J; Green, Manfred S

2016-08-01

Our aim was to examine in what terms leading newspapers' online sites described the current Ebola crisis. We employed a quantitative content analysis of terms attributed to Ebola. We found and analyzed 582 articles published between March 23 and September 30, 2014, on the online websites of 3 newspapers: The New York Times, Daily Mail, and Ynet. Our theoretical framework drew from the fields of health communication and emerging infectious disease communication, including such concepts as framing media literacy, risk signatures, and mental models. We found that outbreak and epidemic were used interchangeably in the articles. From September 16, 2014, onward, epidemic predominated, corresponding to when President Barack Obama explicitly referred to Ebola as an epidemic. Prior to Obama's speech, 86.8% of the articles (323) used the term outbreak and only 8.6% (32) used the term epidemic. Subsequently, both terms were used almost the same amount: 53.8% of the articles (113) used the term outbreak and 53.3% (112) used the term epidemic. Effective communication is crucial during public health emergencies such as Ebola, because language framing affects the decision-making process of social judgments and actions. The choice of one term (outbreak) over another (epidemic) can create different conceptualizations of the disease, thereby influencing the risk signature. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:669-673).

Impacts of clustering on interacting epidemics.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Bing; Cao, Lang; Suzuki, Hideyuki; Aihara, Kazuyuki

2012-07-07

Since community structures in real networks play a major role for the epidemic spread, we therefore explore two interacting diseases spreading in networks with community structures. As a network model with community structures, we propose a random clique network model composed of different orders of cliques. We further assume that each disease spreads only through one type of cliques; this assumption corresponds to the issue that two diseases spread inside communities and outside them. Considering the relationship between the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and the bond percolation theory, we apply this theory to clique random networks under the assumption that the occupation probability is clique-type dependent, which is consistent with the observation that infection rates inside a community and outside it are different, and obtain a number of statistical properties for this model. Two interacting diseases that compete the same hosts are also investigated, which leads to a natural generalization of analyzing an arbitrary number of infectious diseases. For two-disease dynamics, the clustering effect is hypersensitive to the cohesiveness and concentration of cliques; this illustrates the impacts of clustering and the composition of subgraphs in networks on epidemic behavior. The analysis of coexistence/bistability regions provides significant insight into the relationship between the network structure and the potential epidemic prevalence. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stochastic epidemic-type model with enhanced connectivity: exact solution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, H T; Mazilu, I; Mazilu, D A

2012-01-01

We present an exact analytical solution to a one-dimensional model of the susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) epidemic type, with infection rates dependent on nearest-neighbor occupations. We use a quantum mechanical approach, transforming the master equation via a quantum spin operator formulation. We calculate exactly the time-dependent density of infected, recovered and susceptible populations for random initial conditions. Our results compare well with those of previous work, validating the model as a useful tool for additional and extended studies in this important area. Our model also provides exact solutions for the n-point correlation functions, and can be extended to more complex epidemic-type models

[A large-scale epidemic of diphtheria in Moscow in recent years: patterns of development].

Science.gov (United States)

Chistiakova, G G; Filatov, N N; Korzhenkova, M P; Solodovnikov, Iu P; Lytkina, I N; Maksimova, N M; Markina, S S

2001-01-01

Data on the dynamics of diphtheria morbidity in Moscow in 1958-1999 are presented. The last epidemic which started at the end of the 1980s and reached its peak in 1994, giving a 59-fold rise in morbidity in comparison with the pre-epidemic period, is characterized in detail. During the epidemic 12,267 persons fell ill, 454 of them died (mortality rate was 4%). Having started in Moscow, the epidemic gradually spread not only over the territory of Russia, but also over some other republics of the former Soviet Union (Ukraine, Belarus, etc.). Possible causes of this epidemic emergency are considered. The ever increasing share of adult population among persons affected by the epidemic (75%) is noted. The infection adults is characterized by severity of clinical manifestations and increased morbidity among adults, is shown. Under complicated social and economic conditions (crisis situation) the increase of groups of high risk which included unemployed adults of working age, retirees as well as socially non-adapted persons, was registered. Mainly these groups determined tense epidemiological situation in diphtheria in Moscow.

Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus among Farmed Pigs, Ukraine.

Science.gov (United States)

Dastjerdi, Akbar; Carr, John; Ellis, Richard J; Steinbach, Falko; Williamson, Susanna

2015-12-01

An outbreak of porcine epidemic diarrhea occurred in the summer of 2014 in Ukraine, severely affecting piglets <10 days of age; the mortality rate approached 100%. Full genome sequencing showed the virus to be closely related to strains reported from North America, showing a sequence identity of up to 99.8%.

Analytic solutions for Rayleigh-Taylor growth rates in smooth density gradients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Munro, D.H.

1988-01-01

The growth rate of perturbations on the shell of a laser fusion target can be estimated as √gk , where g is the shell acceleration and k is the transverse wave number of the perturbation. This formula overestimates the growth rate, and should be modified for the effects of density gradients and/or ablation of the unstable interface. The density-gradient effect is explored here analytically. With the use of variational calculus to explore all possible density profiles, the growth rate is shown to exceed √gk/(1+kL) , where L is a typical density-gradient scale length. Density profiles actually exhibiting this minimum growth rate are found

Behavioral Responses to Epidemics in an Online Experiment: Using Virtual Diseases to Study Human Behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Frederick; Griffith, Amanda; Cottrell, Allin; Wong, Yue-Ling

2013-01-01

We report the results of a study we conducted using a simple multiplayer online game that simulates the spread of an infectious disease through a population composed of the players. We use our virtual epidemics game to examine how people respond to epidemics. The analysis shows that people's behavior is responsive to the cost of self-protection, the reported prevalence of disease, and their experiences earlier in the epidemic. Specifically, decreasing the cost of self-protection increases the rate of safe behavior. Higher reported prevalence also raises the likelihood that individuals would engage in self-protection, where the magnitude of this effect depends on how much time has elapsed in the epidemic. Individuals' experiences in terms of how often an infection was acquired when they did not engage in self-protection are another factor that determines whether they will invest in preventive measures later on. All else being equal, individuals who were infected at a higher rate are more likely to engage in self-protective behavior compared to those with a lower rate of infection. Lastly, fixing everything else, people's willingness to engage in safe behavior waxes or wanes over time, depending on the severity of an epidemic: when prevalence is high, people are more likely to adopt self-protective measures as time goes by; when prevalence is low, a ‘self-protection fatigue’ effect sets in whereby individuals are less willing to engage in safe behavior over time. PMID:23326360

Modelling of tomato stem diameter growth rate based on physiological responses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, L.; Tan, J.; Lv, T.

2017-01-01

The stem diameter is an important parameter describing the growth of tomato plant during vegetative growth stage. A stem diameter growth model was developed to predict the response of plant growth under different conditions. By analyzing the diurnal variations of stem diameter in tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.), it was found that the stem diameter measured at 3:00 am was the representative value as the daily basis of tomato stem diameter. Based on the responses of growth rate in stem diameter to light and temperature, a linear regression relationship was applied to establish the stem diameter growth rate prediction model for the vegetative growth stage in tomato and which was further validated by experiment. The root mean square error (RMSE) and relative error (RE) were used to test the correlation between measured and modeled stem diameter variations. Results showed that the model can be used in prediction for stem diameter growth rate at vegetative growth stage in tomato. (author)

On the relative role of different age groups in influenza epidemics.

Science.gov (United States)

Worby, Colin J; Chaves, Sandra S; Wallinga, Jacco; Lipsitch, Marc; Finelli, Lyn; Goldstein, Edward

2015-12-01

The identification of key "driver" groups in influenza epidemics is of much interest for the implementation of effective public health response strategies, including vaccination programs. However, the relative importance of different age groups in propagating epidemics is uncertain. During a communicable disease outbreak, some groups may be disproportionately represented during the outbreak's ascent due to increased susceptibility and/or contact rates. Such groups or subpopulations can be identified by considering the proportion of cases within the subpopulation occurring before (Bp) and after the epidemic peak (Ap) to calculate the subpopulation's relative risk, RR=Bp/Ap. We estimated RR for several subpopulations (age groups) using data on laboratory-confirmed US influenza hospitalizations during epidemics between 2009-2014. Additionally, we simulated various influenza outbreaks in an age-stratified population, relating the RR to the impact of vaccination in each subpopulation on the epidemic's initial effective reproductive number R_e(0). We found that children aged 5-17 had the highest estimates of RR during the five largest influenza A outbreaks, though the relative magnitude of RR in this age group compared to other age groups varied, being highest for the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. For the 2010-2011 and 2012-2013 influenza B epidemics, adults aged 18-49, and 0-4 year-olds had the highest estimates of RR respectively. For 83% of simulated epidemics, the group with the highest RR was also the group for which initial distribution of a given quantity of vaccine would result in the largest reduction of R_e(0). In the largest 40% of simulated outbreaks, the group with the highest RR and the largest vaccination impact was children 5-17. While the relative importance of different age groups in propagating influenza outbreaks varies, children aged 5-17 play the leading role during the largest influenza A epidemics. Extra vaccination efforts for this group may contribute

A generalized-growth model to characterize the early ascending phase of infectious disease outbreaks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Viboud, Cecile; Simonsen, Lone; Chowell, Gerardo

2016-01-01

the importance of sub-exponential growth for forecasting purposes.Results: We applied the generalized-growth model to 20 infectious disease outbreaks representing a range of transmission routes. We uncovered epidemic profiles ranging from very slow growth (p = 0.14 for the Ebola outbreak in Bomi, Liberia (2014...... African Ebola epidemic provided a unique opportunity to explore how growth profiles vary by geography; analysis of the largest district-level outbreaks revealed substantial growth variations (mean p = 0.59, range: 0.14–0.97). The districts of Margibi in Liberia and Bombali and Bo in Sierra Leone had near......-exponential growth, while the districts of Bomi in Liberia and Kenema in Sierra Leone displayed near constant incidences.Conclusions: Our findings reveal significant variation in epidemic growth patterns across different infectious disease outbreaks and highlights that sub-exponential growth is a common phenomenon...

A quantitative theory of solid tumor growth, metabolic rate and vascularization.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander B Herman

Full Text Available The relationships between cellular, structural and dynamical properties of tumors have traditionally been studied separately. Here, we construct a quantitative, predictive theory of solid tumor growth, metabolic rate, vascularization and necrosis that integrates the relationships between these properties. To accomplish this, we develop a comprehensive theory that describes the interface and integration of the tumor vascular network and resource supply with the cardiovascular system of the host. Our theory enables a quantitative understanding of how cells, tissues, and vascular networks act together across multiple scales by building on recent theoretical advances in modeling both healthy vasculature and the detailed processes of angiogenesis and tumor growth. The theory explicitly relates tumor vascularization and growth to metabolic rate, and yields extensive predictions for tumor properties, including growth rates, metabolic rates, degree of necrosis, blood flow rates and vessel sizes. Besides these quantitative predictions, we explain how growth rates depend on capillary density and metabolic rate, and why similar tumors grow slower and occur less frequently in larger animals, shedding light on Peto's paradox. Various implications for potential therapeutic strategies and further research are discussed.

[Monitoring the Microtus fuscus plague epidemic in Sichuan province during 2000 - 2008.

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wang, Li-Mao; Song, Xiao-Yu; Zhu, Xiao-Ping

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the epidemic tendency of Microtus fuscus plague during 2000 - 2008 in Sichuan province. METHODS: To investigate the plague each year according to "overall Plan of the Plague in the Whole Nation" and "Surveillance Program of Sichuan Province Plague". RESULTS: There were plague...... of fleas, Callopsylla sparsilis, Amphipsylla tutua tutua and Rhadinopsylla dahurica vicina, with the overall infection rate as 0.054%. CONCLUSION: Plague among Microtus fuscus showed a continuous epidemic in Sichuan province during 2000 - 2008....

Growth rate correlates negatively with protein turnover in Arabidopsis accessions.

Science.gov (United States)

Ishihara, Hirofumi; Moraes, Thiago Alexandre; Pyl, Eva-Theresa; Schulze, Waltraud X; Obata, Toshihiro; Scheffel, André; Fernie, Alisdair R; Sulpice, Ronan; Stitt, Mark

2017-08-01

Previous studies with Arabidopsis accessions revealed that biomass correlates negatively to dusk starch content and total protein, and positively to the maximum activities of enzymes in photosynthesis. We hypothesized that large accessions have lower ribosome abundance and lower rates of protein synthesis, and that this is compensated by lower rates of protein degradation. This would increase growth efficiency and allow more investment in photosynthetic machinery. We analysed ribosome abundance and polysome loading in 19 accessions, modelled the rates of protein synthesis and compared them with the observed rate of growth. Large accessions contained less ribosomes than small accessions, due mainly to cytosolic ribosome abundance falling at night in large accessions. The modelled rates of protein synthesis resembled those required for growth in large accessions, but were up to 30% in excess in small accessions. We then employed 13 CO 2 pulse-chase labelling to measure the rates of protein synthesis and degradation in 13 accessions. Small accessions had a slightly higher rate of protein synthesis and much higher rates of protein degradation than large accessions. Protein turnover was negligible in large accessions but equivalent to up to 30% of synthesised protein day -1 in small accessions. We discuss to what extent the decrease in growth in small accessions can be quantitatively explained by known costs of protein turnover and what factors may lead to the altered diurnal dynamics and increase of ribosome abundance in small accessions, and propose that there is a trade-off between protein turnover and maximisation of growth rate. © 2017 The Authors The Plant Journal © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The 1982 epidemic--roller skating injuries.

Science.gov (United States)

Bunker, T. D.

1983-01-01

A series of 100 roller skating injuries is presented. Roller skating injuries have been occurring at a higher rate than the previously reported skateboarding epidemic of 1977. The severity of injury has been lower, 32% fractures and dislocations occurring whilst roller skating, compared to 60% whilst skateboarding. In particular a striking reduction is seen in ankle fractures. Fifty questionnaires detailing method of injury were analysed. Images p205-a Fig. 1 Fig. 2 PMID:6652406

Increase in cases of malaria in Mozambique, 2014: epidemic or new endemic pattern?

Science.gov (United States)

Arroz, Jorge Alexandre Harrison

2016-01-01

To describe the increase in cases of malaria in Mozambique. Cross-sectional study conducted in 2014, in Mozambique with national weekly epidemiological bulletin data. I analyzed the number of recorded cases in the 2009-2013 period, which led to the creation of an endemic channel using the quartile and C-Sum methods. Monthly incidence rates were calculated for the first half of 2014, making it possible to determine the pattern of endemicity. Months in which the incidence rates exceeded the third quartile or line C-sum were declared as epidemic months. The provinces of Nampula, Zambezia, Sofala, and Inhambane accounted for 52.7% of all cases in the first half of 2014. Also during this period, the provinces of Nampula, Sofala and Tete were responsible for 54.9% of the deaths from malaria. The incidence rates of malaria in children, and in all ages, have showed patterns in the epidemic zone. For all ages, the incidence rate has peaked in April (2,573 cases/100,000 inhabitants). The results suggest the occurrence of an epidemic pattern of malaria in the first half of 2014 in Mozambique. It is strategic to have a more accurate surveillance at all levels (central, provincial and district) to target prevention and control interventions in a timely manner.

Epidemic optic neuropathy in Cuba. Eye findings.

Science.gov (United States)

Sadun, A A; Martone, J F; Muci-Mendoza, R; Reyes, L; DuBois, L; Silva, J C; Roman, G; Caballero, B

1994-05-01

To characterize and establish a clinical definition of the optic neuropathy that appeared in epidemic form in Cuba in 1992 and 1993. At the invitation of the Cuban Ministry of Health, Havana, members of ORBIS International and the Pan American Health Organization, assembled teams that traveled to Cuba in May 1993. We were initially briefed by Cuban national experts in the areas of virology, nutrition, toxicology, ophthalmology, neurology, and public health. We then examined 20 patients on our own. Thirteen of these patients underwent a comprehensive neuro-ophthalmologic examination, including neurologic examination, ophthalmologic examination, visual fields, optic nerve function studies, contrast sensitivity studies, and funduscopy. We returned 4 months later to perform an additional 12 comprehensive neuro-ophthalmologic and follow-up examinations. Only seven of the 13 patients who were alleged to have the optic form of the epidemic and who were rigorously and systematically examined on the first visit demonstrated a bilateral optic neuropathy. These seven patients had several features that included decreased visual acuity, poor color vision, central scotomas, decreased contrast sensitivity, saccadic eye movements, and most prominent and distinctive of all, nerve fiber layer wedge defects of the papillomacular bundle. Our clinical definition was then implemented by the Cuban ophthalmologists and epidemiologists. On returning 4 months later, we found that all newly presented patients were correctly diagnosed to have the epidemic disease. With the new case definition and the application of a few simple psychophysical tests, the false-positive rate of diagnosis became much lower. After vitamin therapy, we reexamined the patients seen on our initial visit, and all showed marked improvement. The Cuban epidemic was characterized by an optic neuropathy with features that were similar to those of tobacco/alcohol amblyopia and Leber's optic atrophy. Recent political

Investigating calcite growth rates using a quartz crystal microbalance with dissipation (QCM-D)

Science.gov (United States)

Cao, Bo; Stack, Andrew G.; Steefel, Carl I.; DePaolo, Donald J.; Lammers, Laura N.; Hu, Yandi

2018-02-01

Calcite precipitation plays a significant role in processes such as geological carbon sequestration and toxic metal sequestration and, yet, the rates and mechanisms of calcite growth under close to equilibrium conditions are far from well understood. In this study, a quartz crystal microbalance with dissipation (QCM-D) was used for the first time to measure macroscopic calcite growth rates. Calcite seed crystals were first nucleated and grown on sensors, then growth rates of calcite seed crystals were measured in real-time under close to equilibrium conditions (saturation index, SI = log ({Ca2+}/{CO32-}/Ksp) = 0.01-0.7, where {i} represent ion activities and Ksp = 10-8.48 is the calcite thermodynamic solubility constant). At the end of the experiments, total masses of calcite crystals on sensors measured by QCM-D and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) were consistent, validating the QCM-D measurements. Calcite growth rates measured by QCM-D were compared with reported macroscopic growth rates measured with auto-titration, ICP-MS, and microbalance. Calcite growth rates measured by QCM-D were also compared with microscopic growth rates measured by atomic force microscopy (AFM) and with rates predicted by two process-based crystal growth models. The discrepancies in growth rates among AFM measurements and model predictions appear to mainly arise from differences in step densities, and the step velocities were consistent among the AFM measurements as well as with both model predictions. Using the predicted steady-state step velocity and the measured step densities, both models predict well the growth rates measured using QCM-D and AFM. This study provides valuable insights into the effects of reactive site densities on calcite growth rate, which may help design future growth models to predict transient-state step densities.

Increases in absenteeism among health care workers in Hong Kong during influenza epidemics, 2004-2009.

Science.gov (United States)

Ip, Dennis K M; Lau, Eric H Y; Tam, Yat Hung; So, Hau Chi; Cowling, Benjamin J; Kwok, Henry K H

2015-12-29

Acute respiratory infections (ARI) are a major cause of sickness absenteeism among health care workers (HCWs) and contribute significantly to overall productivity loss particularly during influenza epidemics. The purpose of this study is to quantify the increases in absenteeism during epidemics including the 2009 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic. We analysed administrative data to determine patterns of sickness absence among HCWs in Hong Kong from January 2004 through December 2009, and used multivariable linear regression model to estimate the excess all-cause and ARI-related sickness absenteeism rates during influenza epidemics. We found that influenza epidemics prior to the 2009 pandemic and during the 2009 pandemic were associated with 8.4 % (95 % CI: 5.6-11.2 %) and 57.7 % (95 % CI: 54.6-60.9 %) increases in overall sickness absence, and 26.5 % (95 % CI: 21.4-31.5 %) and 90.9 % (95 % CI: 85.2-96.6 %) increases in ARI-related sickness absence among HCWs in Hong Kong, respectively. Comparing different staff types, increases in overall absenteeism were highest among medical staff, during seasonal influenza epidemic periods (51.3 %, 95 % CI: 38.9-63.7 %) and the pandemic mitigation period (142.1 %, 95 % CI: 128.0-156.1 %). Influenza epidemics were associated with a substantial increase in sickness absence and productivity loss among HCWs in Hong Kong, and there was a much higher rate of absenteeism during the 2009 pandemic. These findings could inform better a more proactive workforce redistribution plans to allow for sufficient surge capacity in annual epidemics, and for pandemic preparedness.

Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

KAUST Repository

Paarporn, Keith; Eksin, Ceyhun; Weitz, Joshua S.; Shamma, Jeff S.

2017-01-01

We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe

Growth rates of alien Oreochromis niloticus and indigenous ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Growth rates of indigenous Oreochromis mortimeri and alien Oreochromis niloticus from Lake Kariba were estimated from samples collected in 1997–2000, 2003–2005 and 2010–2011. Growth zones on scales and otoliths of O. niloticus and on the otoliths and opercula of O. mortimeri were deposited annually.

The macroeconomics of targeting: the case of an enduring epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Clive; Gersbach, Hans

2009-01-01

What is the right balance among policy interventions in order to ensure economic growth over the long run when an epidemic causes heavy mortality among young adults? We argue that, in general, policies to combat the disease and promote education must be concentrated, in certain ways, at first on some subgroups of society. This concentration involves what we term the macroeconomics of targeting. The central comparison is then between programs under which supported families enjoy the benefits of spending on health and education simultaneously (DT), and those under which the benefits in these two domains are sequenced (ST). When levels of human capital are uniformly low at the outbreak, DT is superior to ST if the mortality rate exceeds some threshold value. Outside aid makes DT more attractive; but DT restricts support to fewer families initially and so increases inequality. A summary account of the empirical evidence is followed by an application of the framework to South Africa.

Fatigue Crack Growth Rate and Stress-Intensity Factor Corrections for Out-of-Plane Crack Growth

Science.gov (United States)

Forth, Scott C.; Herman, Dave J.; James, Mark A.

2003-01-01

Fatigue crack growth rate testing is performed by automated data collection systems that assume straight crack growth in the plane of symmetry and use standard polynomial solutions to compute crack length and stress-intensity factors from compliance or potential drop measurements. Visual measurements used to correct the collected data typically include only the horizontal crack length, which for cracks that propagate out-of-plane, under-estimates the crack growth rates and over-estimates the stress-intensity factors. The authors have devised an approach for correcting both the crack growth rates and stress-intensity factors based on two-dimensional mixed mode-I/II finite element analysis (FEA). The approach is used to correct out-of-plane data for 7050-T7451 and 2025-T6 aluminum alloys. Results indicate the correction process works well for high DeltaK levels but fails to capture the mixed-mode effects at DeltaK levels approaching threshold (da/dN approximately 10(exp -10) meter/cycle).

Growth rates, grazing, sinking, and iron limitation of equatorial Pacific phytoplankton

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chavez, F.P.; Buck, K.R.; Coale, K.H.; Martin, J.H.; DiTullio, G.R.; Welschmeyer, N.A.; Barber, R.T.; Jacobson, A.C.

1991-01-01

Concentrations of phytoplankton and NO 3 are consistently low and high in surface waters of the oceanic eastern and central equatorial Pacific, and phytoplankton populations are dominated by small solitary phytoplankton. Growth rates of natural phytoplankton populations, needed to assess the relative importance of many of the processes considered in the equatorial Pacific, were estimated by several methods. The growth rates of natural phytoplankton populations were found to be ∼0.7 d -1 or 1 biomass doubling d -1 and were similar for all methods. To keep this system in its observed balance requires that loss rates approximate observed growth rates. Grazing rates, measured with a dilution grazing experiment, were high, accounting for a large fraction of the daily production. Additions of various forms of Fe to 5-7-d incubations utilizing ultraclean techniques resulted in significant shifts in autotrophic and heterotrophic assemblages between initial samples, controls, and Fe enrichments, which were presumably due to Fe, grazing by both protistan and metazoan components, and incubation artifacts. Estimated growth rates of small pennate diatoms showed increases in Fe enrichments with respect to controls. The growth rates of the pennate diatoms were similar to those estimated for the larger size fraction of the natural populations

Spatiotemporal modelling and mapping of the bubonic plague epidemic in India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christakos George

2006-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background This work studies the spatiotemporal evolution of bubonic plague in India during 1896–1906 using stochastic concepts and geographical information science techniques. In the past, most investigations focused on selected cities to conduct different kinds of studies, such as the ecology of rats. No detailed maps existed incorporating the space-time dependence structure and uncertainty sources of the epidemic system and providing a composite space-time picture of the disease propagation characteristics. Results Informative spatiotemporal maps were generated that represented mortality rates and geographical spread of the disease, and epidemic indicator plots were derived that offered meaningful characterizations of the spatiotemporal disease distribution. The bubonic plague in India exhibited strong seasonal and geographical features. During its entire duration, the plague continued to invade new geographical areas, while it followed a re-emergence pattern at many localities; its rate changed significantly during each year and the mortality distribution exhibited space-time heterogeneous patterns; prevalence usually occurred in the autumn and spring, whereas the plague stopped moving towards new locations during the summers. Conclusion Modern stochastic modelling and geographical information science provide powerful means to study the spatiotemporal distribution of the bubonic plague epidemic under conditions of uncertainty and multi-sourced databases; to account for various forms of interdisciplinary knowledge; and to generate informative space-time maps of mortality rates and propagation patterns. To the best of our knowledge, this kind of plague maps and plots become available for the first time, thus providing novel perspectives concerning the distribution and space-time propagation of the deadly epidemic. Furthermore, systematic maps and indicator plots make possible the comparison of the spatial-temporal propagation

Sales Growth Rate Forecasting Using Improved PSO and SVM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xibin Wang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Accurate forecast of the sales growth rate plays a decisive role in determining the amount of advertising investment. In this study, we present a preclassification and later regression based method optimized by improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO for sales growth rate forecasting. We use support vector machine (SVM as a classification model. The nonlinear relationship in sales growth rate forecasting is efficiently represented by SVM, while IPSO is optimizing the training parameters of SVM. IPSO addresses issues of traditional PSO, such as relapsing into local optimum, slow convergence speed, and low convergence precision in the later evolution. We performed two experiments; firstly, three classic benchmark functions are used to verify the validity of the IPSO algorithm against PSO. Having shown IPSO outperform PSO in convergence speed, precision, and escaping local optima, in our second experiment, we apply IPSO to the proposed model. The sales growth rate forecasting cases are used to testify the forecasting performance of proposed model. According to the requirements and industry knowledge, the sample data was first classified to obtain types of the test samples. Next, the values of the test samples were forecast using the SVM regression algorithm. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model has good forecasting performance.

Do fish growth rates correlate with PCB body burdens?

Science.gov (United States)

Andrew L. Rypel; David R.. Bayne

2010-01-01

We evaluated whether growth rates of six fish species correlated with PCB concentrations in a moderately-to-heavily polluted freshwater ecosystem. Using a large dataset (n ¼ 984 individuals), and after accounting for growth effects related to fish age, habitat, sex, and lipids, growth correlated significantly, but positively with lipid-corrected PCB concentrations for...

On the growth rate of the foliicolous lichen Strigula elegans

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wilde-Duyfjes, de B.E.E.

1967-01-01

The diametral growth rate of the foliicolous lichen Strigula elegans (Fée) Müll. Arg., measured under natural conditions in the African tropical rainforest, has been established to amount to (0.7-)3-3-6(-8) mm annually. As compared to the diametral growth rate of lichens from temperate regions,

Pretreatment Growth Rate Predicts Radiation Response in Vestibular Schwannomas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niu, Nina N.; Niemierko, Andrzej; Larvie, Mykol; Curtin, Hugh; Loeffler, Jay S.; McKenna, Michael J.; Shih, Helen A.

2014-01-01

Purpose: Vestibular schwannomas (VS) are often followed without initial therapeutic intervention because many tumors do not grow and radiation therapy is associated with potential adverse effects. In an effort to determine whether maximizing initial surveillance predicts for later treatment response, the predictive value of preirradiation growth rate of VS on response to radiation therapy was assessed. Methods and Materials: Sixty-four patients with 65 VS were treated with single-fraction stereotactic radiation surgery or fractionated stereotactic radiation therapy. Pre- and postirradiation linear expansion rates were estimated using volumetric measurements on sequential magnetic resonance images (MRIs). In addition, postirradiation tumor volume change was classified as demonstrating shrinkage (ratio of volume on last follow-up MRI to MRI immediately preceding irradiation <80%), stability (ratio 80%-120%), or expansion (ratio >120%). The median pre- and postirradiation follow-up was 20.0 and 27.5 months, respectively. Seven tumors from neurofibromatosis type 2 (NF2) patients were excluded from statistical analyses. Results: In the 58 non-NF2 patients, there was a trend of correlation between pre- and postirradiation volume change rates (slope on linear regression, 0.29; P=.06). Tumors demonstrating postirradiation expansion had a median preirradiation growth rate of 89%/year, and those without postirradiation expansion had a median preirradiation growth rate of 41%/year (P=.02). As the preirradiation growth rate increased, the probability of postirradiation expansion also increased. Overall, 24.1% of tumors were stable, 53.4% experienced shrinkage, and 22.5% experienced expansion. Predictors of no postirradiation tumor expansion included no prior surgery (P=.01) and slower tumor growth rate (P=.02). The control of tumors in NF2 patients was only 43%. Conclusions: Radiation therapy is an effective treatment for VS, but tumors that grow quickly preirradiation may be

Pretreatment Growth Rate Predicts Radiation Response in Vestibular Schwannomas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Niu, Nina N. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Harvard Medical School, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Harvard Medical School, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Niemierko, Andrzej [Department of Radiation Oncology, Harvard Medical School, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Larvie, Mykol [Harvard Medical School, Department of Radiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Curtin, Hugh [Harvard Medical School, Department of Radiology, Massachusetts Eye and Ear Infirmary, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Loeffler, Jay S. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Harvard Medical School, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); McKenna, Michael J. [Harvard Medical School, Department of Otolaryngology, Massachusetts Eye and Ear Infirmary, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Shih, Helen A., E-mail: hshih@partners.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, Harvard Medical School, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States)

2014-05-01

Purpose: Vestibular schwannomas (VS) are often followed without initial therapeutic intervention because many tumors do not grow and radiation therapy is associated with potential adverse effects. In an effort to determine whether maximizing initial surveillance predicts for later treatment response, the predictive value of preirradiation growth rate of VS on response to radiation therapy was assessed. Methods and Materials: Sixty-four patients with 65 VS were treated with single-fraction stereotactic radiation surgery or fractionated stereotactic radiation therapy. Pre- and postirradiation linear expansion rates were estimated using volumetric measurements on sequential magnetic resonance images (MRIs). In addition, postirradiation tumor volume change was classified as demonstrating shrinkage (ratio of volume on last follow-up MRI to MRI immediately preceding irradiation <80%), stability (ratio 80%-120%), or expansion (ratio >120%). The median pre- and postirradiation follow-up was 20.0 and 27.5 months, respectively. Seven tumors from neurofibromatosis type 2 (NF2) patients were excluded from statistical analyses. Results: In the 58 non-NF2 patients, there was a trend of correlation between pre- and postirradiation volume change rates (slope on linear regression, 0.29; P=.06). Tumors demonstrating postirradiation expansion had a median preirradiation growth rate of 89%/year, and those without postirradiation expansion had a median preirradiation growth rate of 41%/year (P=.02). As the preirradiation growth rate increased, the probability of postirradiation expansion also increased. Overall, 24.1% of tumors were stable, 53.4% experienced shrinkage, and 22.5% experienced expansion. Predictors of no postirradiation tumor expansion included no prior surgery (P=.01) and slower tumor growth rate (P=.02). The control of tumors in NF2 patients was only 43%. Conclusions: Radiation therapy is an effective treatment for VS, but tumors that grow quickly preirradiation may be

Complex dynamics of an SEIR epidemic model with saturated incidence rate and treatment

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, Muhammad Altaf; Khan, Yasir; Islam, Saeed

2018-03-01

In this paper, we describe the dynamics of an SEIR epidemic model with saturated incidence, treatment function, and optimal control. Rigorous mathematical results have been established for the model. The stability analysis of the model is investigated and found that the model is locally asymptotically stable when R0 1. The proposed model may possess a backward bifurcation. The optimal control problem is designed and obtained their necessary results. Numerical results have been presented for justification of theoretical results.

Survival and Growth of Epidemically Successful and Nonsuccessful Salmonella enterica Clones after Freezing and Dehydration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Müller, Karoline; Aabo, Søren; Birk, Tina

2012-01-01

The spread of epidemically successful nontyphoidal Salmonella clones has been suggested as the most important cause of salmonellosis in industrialized countries. Factors leading to the emergence of success clones are largely unknown, but their ability to survive and grow after physical stress may...

Growth-Phase Sterigmatocystin Formation on Lactose Is Mediated via Low Specific Growth Rates in Aspergillus nidulans

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Zoltán Németh

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Seed contamination with polyketide mycotoxins such as sterigmatocystin (ST produced by Aspergilli is a worldwide issue. The ST biosynthetic pathway is well-characterized in A. nidulans, but regulatory aspects related to the carbon source are still enigmatic. This is particularly true for lactose, inasmuch as some ST production mutant strains still synthesize ST on lactose but not on other carbon substrates. Here, kinetic data revealed that on d-glucose, ST forms only after the sugar is depleted from the medium, while on lactose, ST appears when most of the carbon source is still available. Biomass-specified ST production on lactose was significantly higher than on d-glucose, suggesting that ST formation may either be mediated by a carbon catabolite regulatory mechanism, or induced by low specific growth rates attainable on lactose. These hypotheses were tested by d-glucose limited chemostat-type continuous fermentations. No ST formed at a high growth rate, while a low growth rate led to the formation of 0.4 mg·L−1 ST. Similar results were obtained with a CreA mutant strain. We concluded that low specific growth rates may be the primary cause of mid-growth ST formation on lactose in A. nidulans, and that carbon utilization rates likely play a general regulatory role during biosynthesis.

Complementary Hypotheses on Contributors to the Obesity Epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, Rachel A H; Plaisance, Eric P; Allison, David B

2018-01-01

Increased rates of obesity have occurred within virtually every race, age, sex, ethnicity, and economic group. Despite substantial punditry on the issue, the exact reasons are incompletely known. The two most common factors cited as contributing to the obesity epidemic, and those whose causal influence on increasing obesity levels in the population are often presumed unequivocally, are food marketing practices and institutionally driven reductions in physical activity. These have been called "the big two." This Perspective builds on previous writings in this area to introduce additional factors that may contribute to the obesity epidemic. It is emphasized that there may be other factors working in combination with the big two, influencing body fatness through effects on energy intake, energy expenditure, and/or nutrient partitioning. © 2017 The Obesity Society.

Epidemics and agendas: the politics of nightly news coverage of AIDS.

Science.gov (United States)

Colby, D C; Cook, T E

1991-01-01

We examine why the exponential growth of AIDS cases or the wide-spread professional perception of a health crisis did not move the epidemic more quickly onto the agenda of public problems. One possible explanation focuses on how the national news media's construction of AIDS shaped the meaning of the epidemic for mass and elite audiences. An examination of nightly news coverage by the three major networks from 1982 to 1989 reveals considerable variability and volatility in their coverage. Topic-driven saturation coverage occurred only during three short periods in 1983, 1985, and 1987, when the epidemic seemed likely to affect the "general population". Only at such moments did public opinion shift and discussion and debate in government begin. Otherwise, the typical AIDS story tended less to sensationalize than to reassure, largely because journalists depended upon government officials and high-ranking doctors to present them with evidence of news. Such sources had interests either in avoiding coverage or in pointing toward breakthroughs; more critical sources, especially within the gay movement, had far less access to the news. In concluding, we considered the prospects and pitfalls of the news media's power to shape the public agenda.

Bistable Bacterial Growth Rate in Response to Antibiotics with Low Membrane Permeability

Science.gov (United States)

Elf, Johan; Nilsson, Karin; Tenson, Tanel; Ehrenberg, Måns

2006-12-01

We demonstrate that growth rate bistability for bacterial cells growing exponentially at a fixed external antibiotic concentration can emerge when the cell wall permeability for the drug is low and the growth rate sensitivity to the intracellular drug concentration is high. Under such conditions, an initially high growth rate can remain high, due to dilution of the intracellular drug concentration by rapid cell volume increase, while an initially low growth rate can remain low, due to slow cell volume increase and insignificant drug dilution. Our findings have implications for the testing of novel antibiotics on growing bacterial strains.

Probing into the effectiveness of self-isolation policies in epidemic control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crokidakis, Nuno; Duarte Queirós, Sílvio M

2012-01-01

In this work, we inspect the reliability of controlling and quelling an epidemic disease mimicked by a susceptible–infected–susceptible (SIS) model defined on a complex network by means of current and implementable quarantine and isolation policies. Specifically, we consider that each individual in the network is originally linked to individuals of two types: members of the same household and acquaintances. The topology of this network evolves, taking into account a probability q that aims at representing the quarantine or isolation process in which the connection with acquaintances is severed according to standard policies of control of epidemics. Within current policies of self-isolation and standard infection rates, our results show that the propagation is either only controllable for hypothetical rates of compliance or not controllable at all

Circadian cycles in growth and feeding rates of heterotrophic protist plankton

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jakobsen, Hans Henrik; Strom, S.L.

2004-01-01

Growth and feeding rates of four species of planktonic marine heterotrophic protists showed pronounced diel cycles. In most cases, rates were higher during the day and lower at night. However, for the ciliate Strobilidium sp., growth was highest at night. In another ciliate species, Balanion...... comatum, no day-night difference in growth and feeding rates was found. Maintenance of day-night rate differences during 24-h exposures to continuous darkness demonstrated that most of these protists had circadian cycles. The heterotrophic dinoflagellate Oxyrrhis marina exhibited a clear irradiance...... to culturing in a day: night light cycle in O. marina and found that resetting the circadian cycle in this dinoflagellate temporarily arrested growth and feeding. We suggest that protists use a time-integrated light threshold rather than an instantaneous irradiance to maintain the circadian cell cycle...

Evidence of A Bimodal US GDP Growth Rate Distribution: A Wavelet Approach

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Sandro Claudio Lera

2017-04-01

Full Text Available We present a quantitative characterisation of the fluctuations of the annualized growth rate of the real US GDP per capita at many scales, using a wavelet transform analysis of two data sets, quarterly data from 1947 to 2015 and annual data from 1800 to 2010. The chosen mother wavelet (first derivative of the Gaussian function applied to the logarithm of the real US GDP per capita provides a robust estimation of the instantaneous growth rate at different scales. Our main finding is that business cycles appear at all scales and the distribution of GDP growth rates can be well approximated by a bimodal function associated to a series of switches between regimes of strong growth rate $\\rho_\\text{high}$ and regimes of low growth rate $\\rho_\\text{low}$. The succession of such two regimes compounds to produce a remarkably stable long term average real annualized growth rate of 1.6% from 1800 to 2010 and $\\approx 2.0\\%$ since 1950, which is the result of a subtle compensation between the high and low growth regimes that alternate continuously. Thus, the overall growth dynamics of the US economy is punctuated, with phases of strong growth that are intrinsically unsustainable, followed by corrections or consolidation until the next boom starts. We interpret these findings within the theory of "social bubbles" and argue as a consequence that estimations of the cost of the 2008 crisis may be misleading. We also interpret the absence of strong recovery since 2008 as a protracted low growth regime $\\rho_\\text{low}$ associated with the exceptional nature of the preceding large growth regime.

Numerical Analysis of Inlet Gas-Mixture Flow Rate Effects on Carbon Nanotube Growth Rate

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B. Zahed

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The growth rate and uniformity of Carbon Nano Tubes (CNTs based on Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD technique is investigated by using a numerical model. In this reactor, inlet gas mixture, including xylene as carbon source and mixture of argon and hydrogen as  carrier gas enters into a horizontal CVD reactor at atmospheric pressure. Based on the gas phase and surface reactions, released carbon atoms are grown as CNTs on the iron catalysts at the reactor hot walls. The effect of inlet gas-mixture flow rate, on CNTs growth rate and its uniformity is discussed. In addition the velocity and temperature profile and also species concentrations throughout the reactor are presented.

Estimation of sickness absenteeism among Italian healthcare workers during seasonal influenza epidemics.

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Maria Michela Gianino

Full Text Available To analyze absenteeism among healthcare workers (HCWs at a large Italian hospital and to estimate the increase in absenteeism that occurred during seasonal flu periods.Retrospective observational study.The absenteeism data were divided into three "epidemic periods," starting at week 42 of one year and terminating at week 17 of the following year (2010-2011, 2011-2012, 2012-2013, and three "non-epidemic periods," defined as week 18 to week 41 and used as baseline data. The excess of the absenteeism occurring among HCWs during periods of epidemic influenza in comparison with baseline was estimated. All data, obtained from Hospital's databases, were collected for each of the following six job categories: medical doctors, technical executives (i.e., pharmacists, nurses and allied health professionals (i.e., radiographers, other executives (i.e., engineers, nonmedical support staff, and administrative staff. The HCWs were classified by: in and no-contact; vaccinated and unvaccinated.5,544, 5,369, and 5,291 workers in three years were studied. The average duration of absenteeism during the epidemic periods increased among all employees by +2.07 days/person (from 2.99 to 5.06, and the relative increase ranged from 64-94% among the different job categories. Workers not in contact with patients experienced a slightly greater increase in absenteeism (+2.28 days/person, from 2.73 to 5.01 than did employees in contact with patients (+2.04, from 3.04 to 5.08. The vaccination rate among HCWs was below 3%, however the higher excess of absenteeism rate among unvaccinated in comparison with vaccinated workers was observed during the epidemic periods (2.09 vs 1.45 days/person.The influenza-related absenteeism during epidemic periods was quantified as totaling more than 11,000 days/year at the Italian hospital studied. This result confirms the economic impact of sick leave on healthcare systems and stresses on the necessity of encouraging HCWs to be immunized

Estimation of sickness absenteeism among Italian healthcare workers during seasonal influenza epidemics.

Science.gov (United States)

Gianino, Maria Michela; Politano, Gianfranco; Scarmozzino, Antonio; Charrier, Lorena; Testa, Marco; Giacomelli, Sebastian; Benso, Alfredo; Zotti, Carla Maria

2017-01-01

To analyze absenteeism among healthcare workers (HCWs) at a large Italian hospital and to estimate the increase in absenteeism that occurred during seasonal flu periods. Retrospective observational study. The absenteeism data were divided into three "epidemic periods," starting at week 42 of one year and terminating at week 17 of the following year (2010-2011, 2011-2012, 2012-2013), and three "non-epidemic periods," defined as week 18 to week 41 and used as baseline data. The excess of the absenteeism occurring among HCWs during periods of epidemic influenza in comparison with baseline was estimated. All data, obtained from Hospital's databases, were collected for each of the following six job categories: medical doctors, technical executives (i.e., pharmacists), nurses and allied health professionals (i.e., radiographers), other executives (i.e., engineers), nonmedical support staff, and administrative staff. The HCWs were classified by: in and no-contact; vaccinated and unvaccinated. 5,544, 5,369, and 5,291 workers in three years were studied. The average duration of absenteeism during the epidemic periods increased among all employees by +2.07 days/person (from 2.99 to 5.06), and the relative increase ranged from 64-94% among the different job categories. Workers not in contact with patients experienced a slightly greater increase in absenteeism (+2.28 days/person, from 2.73 to 5.01) than did employees in contact with patients (+2.04, from 3.04 to 5.08). The vaccination rate among HCWs was below 3%, however the higher excess of absenteeism rate among unvaccinated in comparison with vaccinated workers was observed during the epidemic periods (2.09 vs 1.45 days/person). The influenza-related absenteeism during epidemic periods was quantified as totaling more than 11,000 days/year at the Italian hospital studied. This result confirms the economic impact of sick leave on healthcare systems and stresses on the necessity of encouraging HCWs to be immunized against

Radiocarbon Based Ages and Growth Rates: Hawaiian Deep Sea Corals

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roark, E B; Guilderson, T P; Dunbar, R B; Ingram, B L

2006-01-13

The radial growth rates and ages of three different groups of Hawaiian deep-sea 'corals' were determined using radiocarbon measurements. Specimens of Corallium secundum, Gerardia sp., and Leiopathes glaberrima, were collected from 450 {+-} 40 m at the Makapuu deep-sea coral bed using a submersible (PISCES V). Specimens of Antipathes dichotoma were collected at 50 m off Lahaina, Maui. The primary source of carbon to the calcitic C. secundum skeleton is in situ dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). Using bomb {sup 14}C time markers we calculate radial growth rates of {approx} 170 {micro}m y{sup -1} and ages of 68-75 years on specimens as tall as 28 cm of C. secundum. Gerardia sp., A. dichotoma, and L. glaberrima have proteinaceous skeletons and labile particulate organic carbon (POC) is their primary source of architectural carbon. Using {sup 14}C we calculate a radial growth rate of 15 {micro}m y{sup -1} and an age of 807 {+-} 30 years for a live collected Gerardia sp., showing that these organisms are extremely long lived. Inner and outer {sup 14}C measurements on four sub-fossil Gerardia spp. samples produce similar growth rate estimates (range 14-45 {micro}m y{sup -1}) and ages (range 450-2742 years) as observed for the live collected sample. Similarly, with a growth rate of < 10 {micro}m y{sup -1} and an age of {approx}2377 years, L. glaberrima at the Makapuu coral bed, is also extremely long lived. In contrast, the shallow-collected A. dichotoma samples yield growth rates ranging from 130 to 1,140 {micro}m y{sup -1}. These results show that Hawaiian deep-sea corals grow more slowly and are older than previously thought.

The Impact of an Epidemic Outbreak on Consumer Expenditures:An Empirical Assessment for MERS Korea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hojin Jung

2016-05-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we investigate the effect of an epidemic outbreak on consumer expenditures. In light of scanner panel data on consumers’ debit and credit card transactions, we present empirical evidence that outbreaks cause considerable disruption in total consumer expenditures with significant heterogeneity across categories. Our findings strongly imply that customers alter their behaviors to reduce the risk of infection. The estimated effect of an epidemic outbreak is qualitatively different from that of other macroeconomic factors. The implications of this research provide important guidance for policy interventions and marketing decisions aimed at sustaining economic growth.

GROWTH RATE DISPERSION (GRD OF THE (010 FACE OF BORAX CRYSTALS IN FLOWING SOLUTION

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Suharso Suharso

2010-06-01

Full Text Available The growth rates of borax crystals from aqueous solutions in the (010 direction at various flow rates were measured. The observed variations of the growth rate can be represented by a normal distribution.  It was found that there is no correlation between growth rate distribution and solution flow under these experimental conditions.   Keywords: Growth rate dispersion (GRD, borax, flow rate

Bacterial growth on surfaces: Automated image analysis for quantification of growth rate-related parameters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, S.; Sternberg, Claus; Poulsen, L. K.

1995-01-01

species-specific hybridizations with fluorescence-labelled ribosomal probes to estimate the single-cell concentration of RNA. By automated analysis of digitized images of stained cells, we determined four independent growth rate-related parameters: cellular RNA and DNA contents, cell volume......, and the frequency of dividing cells in a cell population. These parameters were used to compare physiological states of liquid-suspended and surfacegrowing Pseudomonas putida KT2442 in chemostat cultures. The major finding is that the correlation between substrate availability and cellular growth rate found...

Metabolic enzyme cost explains variable trade-offs between microbial growth rate and yield.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meike T Wortel

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Microbes may maximize the number of daughter cells per time or per amount of nutrients consumed. These two strategies correspond, respectively, to the use of enzyme-efficient or substrate-efficient metabolic pathways. In reality, fast growth is often associated with wasteful, yield-inefficient metabolism, and a general thermodynamic trade-off between growth rate and biomass yield has been proposed to explain this. We studied growth rate/yield trade-offs by using a novel modeling framework, Enzyme-Flux Cost Minimization (EFCM and by assuming that the growth rate depends directly on the enzyme investment per rate of biomass production. In a comprehensive mathematical model of core metabolism in E. coli, we screened all elementary flux modes leading to cell synthesis, characterized them by the growth rates and yields they provide, and studied the shape of the resulting rate/yield Pareto front. By varying the model parameters, we found that the rate/yield trade-off is not universal, but depends on metabolic kinetics and environmental conditions. A prominent trade-off emerges under oxygen-limited growth, where yield-inefficient pathways support a 2-to-3 times higher growth rate than yield-efficient pathways. EFCM can be widely used to predict optimal metabolic states and growth rates under varying nutrient levels, perturbations of enzyme parameters, and single or multiple gene knockouts.

[Epidemic parotiditis, a reportable disease].

Science.gov (United States)

Boverhoff, J C; Baart, J A

2013-01-01

Three consecutive patients with an acute swelling of one of the cheeks, were diagnosed with epidemic parotiditis. The first phase of the diagnostic procedure for an acute cheek swelling is to eliminate the possibility of odontogenic causes. When odontogenic problems have been excluded, non-dentition-related causes may be considered. An acute, progressive swelling in the preauricular area can often be attributed to an inflammation of the parotid gland, but epidemic parotiditis should also be considered. Epidemic parotiditis, or mumps, is caused by the mumps virus. Contamination occurs aerogenically. In the Netherlands, mumps vaccine is an ingredient of the governmental combined mump-measles-rubella inoculation programme. However, in recent years several small-scale parotiditis epidemics have broken out, predominantly among young, inoculated adults. Oropharyngeal mucus and blood samples are needed to diagnose the disease. Each case of the disease should be reported to the community healthcare service.

Concurrency can drive an HIV epidemic by moving R0 across the epidemic threshold

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leung, Ka Yin; Kretzschmar, Mirjam

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to investigate whether concurrency can drive an HIV epidemic by moving R0 across the epidemic threshold. DESIGN AND METHODS: We use a mathematical framework for a dynamic partnership network and the spread of a one-stage infection to study how concurrency is

Influence of Media on Seasonal Influenza Epidemic Curves.

Science.gov (United States)

Saito, Satoshi; Saito, Norihiro; Itoga, Masamichi; Ozaki, Hiromi; Kimura, Toshiyuki; Okamura, Yuji; Murakami, Hiroshi; Kayaba, Hiroyuki

2016-09-01

Theoretical investigations predicting the epidemic curves of seasonal influenza have been demonstrated so far; however, there is little empirical research using ever accumulated epidemic curves. The effects of vaccine coverage and information distribution on influenza epidemics were evaluated. Four indices for epidemics (i.e., onset-peak duration, onset-end duration, ratio of the onset-peak duration to onset-end duration and steepness of epidemic curves) were defined, and the correlations between these indices and anti-flu drug prescription dose, vaccine coverage, the volume of media and search trend on influenza through internet were analyzed. Epidemiological data on seasonal influenza epidemics from 2002/2003 to 2013/2014 excluding 2009/2010 season were collected from National Institute of Infectious Diseases of Japan. The onset-peak duration and its ratio to onset-end duration correlated inversely with the volume of anti-flu drug prescription. Onset-peak duration correlated positively with media information volume on influenza. The steepness of the epidemic curve, and anti-flu drug prescription dose inversely correlated with the volume of media information. Pre-epidemic search trend and media volume on influenza correlated with the vaccine coverage in the season. Vaccine coverage had no strong effect on epidemic curve. Education through media has an effect on the epidemic curve of seasonal influenza. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Nationwide Macroeconomic Variables and the Growth Rate of Bariatric Surgeries in Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Cazzo, Everton; Ramos, Almino Cardoso; Pareja, José Carlos; Chaim, Elinton Adami

2018-06-06

The effect of nationwide economic issues on the necessary expansion in the number of bariatric procedures remains unclear. This study aims to determine whether there are correlations between the growth rate in the number of bariatric surgeries and the major macroeconomic variables over time in Brazil. It is a nationwide analysis regarding the number of bariatric surgeries in Brazil and the main national macroeconomic variables from 2003 through 2016: gross domestic product (GDP), inflation rate, and the unemployment rate, as well as the evolution in the number of registered bariatric surgeons. There were significant positive correlations of the growth rate of surgeries with the early variations of the GDP (R = 0.5558; p = 0.04863) and of the overall health expenditure per capita (R = 0.78322; p = 0.00259). The growth rate of the number of bariatric surgeries was not correlated with the unemployment and inflation rates, as well as with the growth rate of available bariatric surgeons. There were direct relationships between the growth rate of bariatric surgeries and the evolutions of the GDP and health care expenditure per capita. These variables appear to influence the nationwide offer of bariatric surgery.

Reverse-feeding effect of epidemic by propagators in two-layered networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu Dayu; Zhao Yanping; Zheng Muhua; Zhou Jie; Liu Zonghua

2016-01-01

Epidemic spreading has been studied for a long time and is currently focused on the spreading of multiple pathogens, especially in multiplex networks. However, little attention has been paid to the case where the mutual influence between different pathogens comes from a fraction of epidemic propagators, such as bisexual people in two separated groups of heterosexual and homosexual people. We here study this topic by presenting a network model of two layers connected by impulsive links, in contrast to the persistent links in each layer. We let each layer have a distinct pathogen and their interactive infection is implemented by a fraction of propagators jumping between the corresponding pairs of nodes in the two layers. By this model we show that (i) the propagators take the key role to transmit pathogens from one layer to the other, which significantly influences the stabilized epidemics; (ii) the epidemic thresholds will be changed by the propagators; and (iii) a reverse-feeding effect can be expected when the infective rate is smaller than its threshold of isolated spreading. A theoretical analysis is presented to explain the numerical results. (paper)

Age class, longevity and growth rate relationships: protracted growth increases in old trees in the eastern United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Sarah E; Abrams, Marc D

2009-11-01

This study uses data from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank website and tree cores collected in the field to explore growth rate (basal area increment, BAI) relationships across age classes (from young to old) for eight tree species in the eastern US. These species represent a variety of ecological traits and include those in the genera Populus, Quercus, Pinus, Tsuga and Nyssa. We found that most trees in all age classes and species exhibit an increasing BAI throughout their lives. This is particularly unusual for trees in the older age classes that we expected to have declining growth in the later years, as predicted by physiological growth models. There exists an inverse relationship between growth rate and increasing age class. The oldest trees within each species have consistently slow growth throughout their lives, implying an inverse relationship between growth rate and longevity. Younger trees (trees when they are of the same age resulting from a higher proportion of fast-growing trees in these young age classes. Slow, but increasing, BAI in the oldest trees in recent decades is a continuation of their growth pattern established in previous centuries. The fact that they have not shown a decreasing growth rate in their old age contradicts physiological growth models and may be related to the stimulatory effects of global change phenomenon (climate and land-use history).

Epidemics in adaptive networks with community structure

Science.gov (United States)

Shaw, Leah; Tunc, Ilker

2010-03-01

Models for epidemic spread on static social networks do not account for changes in individuals' social interactions. Recent studies of adaptive networks have modeled avoidance behavior, as non-infected individuals try to avoid contact with infectives. Such models have not generally included realistic social structure. Here we study epidemic spread on an adaptive network with community structure. We model the effect of heterogeneous communities on infection levels and epidemic extinction. We also show how an epidemic can alter the community structure.

Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun, Ye; Liu, Chuang; Zhang, Chu-Xu; Zhang, Zi-Ke

2014-01-01

Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sun, Ye [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Liu, Chuang, E-mail: liuchuang@hznu.edu.cn [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Chu-Xu [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Zi-Ke, E-mail: zhangzike@gmail.com [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China)

2014-01-31

Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

Epidemic processes in complex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

2015-07-01

In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.

Orbit width scaling of TAE instability growth rate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wong, H.V.; Berk, H.L.; Breizman, B.N.

1995-07-01

The growth rate of Toroidal Alfven Eigenmodes (TAE) driven unstable by resonant coupling of energetic charged particles is evaluated in the ballooning limit over a wide range of parameters. All damping effects are ignored. Variations in orbit width, aspect ratio, and the ratio of alfven velocity to energetic particle birth velocity, are explored. The relative contribution of passing and trapped particles, and finite Larmor radius effects, are also examined. The phase space location of resonant particles with interact strongly with the modes is described. The accuracy of the analytic results with respect to growth rate magnitude and parametric dependence is investigated by comparison with numerical results

Orbit width scaling of TAE instability growth rate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wong, H.V.; Berk, H.L.; Breizman, B.N.

1995-01-01

The growth rate of toroidal Alfven eigenmodes (TAEs) driven unstable by resonant coupling of energetic charged particles is evaluated in the 'ballooning' limit over a wide range of parameters. All damping effects are ignored. Variations in orbit width, aspect ratio and the ratio of Alfven velocity to energetic particle 'birth' velocity are explored. The relative contribution of passing and trapped particles, and finite Larmor radius effects, are also examined. The phase space location of resonant particles that interact strongly with the modes is described. The accuracy of the analytic results with respect to growth rate magnitude and parametric dependence is investigated by comparison with numerical results. (author). 16 refs, 8 figs

Growth rate regulated genes and their wide involvement in the Lactococcus lactis stress responses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Redon Emma

2008-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The development of transcriptomic tools has allowed exhaustive description of stress responses. These responses always superimpose a general response associated to growth rate decrease and a specific one corresponding to the stress. The exclusive growth rate response can be achieved through chemostat cultivation, enabling all parameters to remain constant except the growth rate. Results We analysed metabolic and transcriptomic responses of Lactococcus lactis in continuous cultures at different growth rates ranging from 0.09 to 0.47 h-1. Growth rate was conditioned by isoleucine supply. Although carbon metabolism was constant and homolactic, a widespread transcriptomic response involving 30% of the genome was observed. The expression of genes encoding physiological functions associated with biogenesis increased with growth rate (transcription, translation, fatty acid and phospholipids metabolism. Many phages, prophages and transposon related genes were down regulated as growth rate increased. The growth rate response was compared to carbon and amino-acid starvation transcriptomic responses, revealing constant and significant involvement of growth rate regulations in these two stressful conditions (overlap 27%. Two regulators potentially involved in the growth rate regulations, llrE and yabB, have been identified. Moreover it was established that genes positively regulated by growth rate are preferentially located in the vicinity of replication origin while those negatively regulated are mainly encountered at the opposite, thus indicating the relationship between genes expression and their location on chromosome. Although stringent response mechanism is considered as the one governing growth deceleration in bacteria, the rigorous comparison of the two transcriptomic responses clearly indicated the mechanisms are distinct. Conclusion This work of integrative biology was performed at the global level using transcriptomic analysis

[The cholera epidemic in Latin America].

Science.gov (United States)

Olsvik, O

1992-05-30

An outbreak of cholera started in Peru in January 1991 and spread through most Latin American countries within a year. This was the first known epidemic of cholera in America for more than a century. In 1991, 321,334 persons were reported to have cholera in Peru, 119,063 were hospitalized, and 2,906 died. Other countries like Ecuador, Colombia, Guatemala, Brazil, Mexico, Bolivia, Chile, El Salvador, Venezuela and Honduras were also affected, but these countries combined accounted for only 20% of the cases registered in Peru. In April 1992, all Latin American countries except Uruguay, Paraguay and French Guyana have reported cholera. The mortality rate for the epidemic in Latin America was only 1%, mainly owing to good oral rehydration treatment provided by Local health services and the Pan American Health Organization. The causative organism was Vibrio cholerae, serogroup O1, serotype Inaba (and Ogawa) of the El Tor biotype. Genetic characterization shows this strain to be unique, and the designation is reserved for the Latin American strain, distinguishing it from the other El Tor isolates from the 7th pandemic.

Unusual growth rate during cystic echinococcosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Valour, Florent; Khenifer, Safia; Della-Schiava, Nellie; Cotte, Eddy; Guibert, Benoit; Wallon, Martine; Durupt, Stéphane; Durieu, Isabelle

2014-04-01

Cystic echinococcosis is a world wild zoonosis caused by Echinococcus granulosus, leading to hepatic and lung cysts with a usually slight growth rate. We report the case of an 82year-old Algerian woman with hepatic and lung cystic echinococcosis with a 10-fold size increase in 6months. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

An epidemic model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

2012-04-01

As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to December 2011, climb to 522,000 cases and 7,000 deaths, the development of general models to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the redistribution of Vibrio cholera, the causative agent of the disease, among different human communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information (LandScan project). The model directly accounts for the role of rainfall patterns in driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date grants robustness to the foreseen future development. To this end, we generate realistic scenario of future precipitation in order to forecast possible epidemic paths up to the end of the 2013. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies like mass vaccinations

A panel data investigation of real exchange rate misalignment and growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Flávio Vilela Vieira

2012-09-01

Full Text Available The paper investigates the role of real exchange rate misalignment on long-run growth for a set of ninety countries using time series data from 1980 to 2004. We first estimate a panel data model (fixed and random effects for the real exchange rate in order to produce estimates of the equilibrium real exchange rate and this is then used to construct measures of real exchange rate misalignment. We provide an alternative set of estimates of RER misalignment using panel cointegration methods. The results for the two-step System GMM panel growth models indicate that the coefficients for real exchange rate misalignment are positive for different model specification and samples, which means that a more depreciated (appreciated real exchange rate helps (harms long-run growth. The estimated coefficients are higher for developing and emerging countries.

Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

Science.gov (United States)

Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

2014-01-01

Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

Contact allergy epidemics and their controls

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thyssen, Jacob Pontoppidan; Johansen, Jeanne Duus; Menné, Torkil

2007-01-01

Contact dermatitis can be severe and lead to sick leave as well as significant healthcare expenses. The aim of this review is to present the published knowledge on 6 historical epidemics of contact allergy to apply this knowledge on the prevention and control of future contact allergy epidemics. ...... to prevent contact allergy epidemics. It is essential that dermatologist, scientists, administrators, and consumers organize and structure known methods to accelerate the control of emerging contact allergens....

Modeling historical tuberculosis epidemics among Canadian First Nations: effects of malnutrition and genetic variation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sarah F. Ackley

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Late 19th century epidemics of tuberculosis (TB in Western Canadian First Nations resulted in peak TB mortality rates more than six times the highest rates recorded in Europe. Using a mathematical modeling approach and historical TB mortality time series, we investigate potential causes of high TB mortality and rapid epidemic decline in First Nations from 1885 to 1940. We explore two potential causes of dramatic epidemic dynamics observed in this setting: first, we explore effects of famine prior to 1900 on both TB and population dynamics. Malnutrition is recognized as an individual-level risk factor for TB progression and mortality; its population-level effects on TB epidemics have not been explored previously. Second, we explore effects of heterogeneity in susceptibility to TB in two ways: modeling heterogeneity in susceptibility to infection, and heterogeneity in risk of developing disease once infected. Our results indicate that models lacking famine-related changes in TB parameters or heterogeneity result in an implausibly poor fit to both the TB mortality time series and census data; the inclusion of these features allows for the characteristic decline and rise in population observed in First Nations during this time period and confers improved fits to TB mortality data.

The effect of rumen content transfer on rate of bacteria and protozoa growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suharyono; M Winugroho; Y Widiati; S Marijati

1998-01-01

The aims the experiment wants to know the benefit of rate of microbial protein in rumen content and to complete the information that isolates is useful for ruminant animals feed. The result indicated that buffaloes from East Nusa Tenggara is the best when they are used as donor rumen transfer making isolate. When rumen of ongole cattle generation was mixed in rumen content of buffaloes from East Nusa Tenggara and incubated 48 h, the rate of bacteria cell growth is better than rate of protozoa cell growth comparing to the other animals. The values are 30.99 mg/h/100 ml and 24.92 mg.h/100 ml respectively. The results of isolate selection in 48 h incubation indicated that treatment F is the best. The results rates of bacteria cell growth and rate of protozoa's cell growth are 26.96 mg/h/100 ml and 2.53 mg/h/100 respectively. The result of in vitro study indicated that pH and ammonia concentration support the rate of bacteria cell growth and do not cause the toxicity of microbes and animal . The rate of bacteria cell growth on D treatment is significant to A,B, and C treatments. The values are 21.44 mg/h/100 ml. 7.99; 13.13; and 13.38 mg/h/100 ml respectively. The result rates of protozoa's cell growth tends lower than rates of bacteria cell. The overall conclusion is a lower or a higher rate of microorganism cell growth depends on the environment condition. (author)

The frequency effect on the fatigue crack growth rate of 304 stainless steel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shih, Y.-S.; Chen, J.-J.

1999-01-01

Under cyclic loading condition, the fatigue crack growth (FCG) rate governed by stress intensity factor and stress ratio is well known; Walker's equation, Forman's equation and Elber's equation are typical formulae to describe the fatigue crack growth rate. However, the loading frequency effect on the fatigue crack growth rate has yet to be explored. Recently, studies have focused on the loading frequency effect on some visco-elastic materials, and have provided a clearer understanding of the frequency effect on the fatigue crack growth rate. In a physical sense, knowledge about the loading frequency effect on the fatigue crack growth rate for 304 stainless steel is still lacking. James conducted a lot of experiments, and through data analysis, he concluded an evaluation equation which is based upon the experimental illustration. In this study, the physical properties of the material are used to illustrate the modification of fatigue crack growth rate, and a new formula which is based upon the modified Forman's equation, is provided. (orig.)

On the growth rate of gallstones in the human gallbladder

Science.gov (United States)

Nudelman, I.

1993-05-01

The growth rate of a single symmetrically oval shaped gallbladder stone weighing 10.8 g was recorded over a period of six years before surgery and removal. The length of the stone was measured by ultrasonography and the growth rate was found to be linear with time, with a value of 0.4 mm/year. A smaller stone growing in the wall of the gallbladder was detected only three years before removal and grew at a rate of ˜ 1.33 mm/year. The morphology and metallic ion chemical composition of the large stone and of a randomly selected small stone weighing about 1.1 g, extracted from another patient, were analyzed and compared. It was found that the large stone contained besides calcium also lead, whereas the small stone contained mainly calcium. It is possible that the lead causes a difference in mechanism between the growth of a single large and growth of multiple small gallstones.

DKDP crystal growth controlled by cooling rate

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Xiaoyi; Qi, Hongji; Shao, Jianda

2017-08-01

The performance of deuterated potassium dihydrogen phosphate (DKDP) crystal directly affects beam quality, energy and conversion efficiency in the Inertial Confinement Fusion（ICF）facility, which is related with the initial saturation temperature of solution and the real-time supersaturation during the crystal growth. However, traditional method to measure the saturation temperature is neither efficient nor accurate enough. Besides, the supersaturation is often controlled by experience, which yields the higher error and leads to the instability during the crystal growth. In this paper, DKDP solution with 78% deuteration concentration is crystallized in different temperatures. We study the relation between solubility and temperature of DKDP and fit a theoretical curve with a parabola model. With the model, the measurement of saturation temperature is simplified and the control precision of the cooling rate is improved during the crystal growth, which is beneficial for optimizing the crystal growth process.

Can rewiring strategy control the epidemic spreading?

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Chao; Yin, Qiuju; Liu, Wenyang; Yan, Zhijun; Shi, Tianyu

2015-11-01

Relation existed in the social contact network can affect individuals' behaviors greatly. Considering the diversity of relation intimacy among network nodes, an epidemic propagation model is proposed by incorporating the link-breaking threshold, which is normally neglected in the rewiring strategy. The impact of rewiring strategy on the epidemic spreading in the weighted adaptive network is explored. The results show that the rewiring strategy cannot always control the epidemic prevalence, especially when the link-breaking threshold is low. Meanwhile, as well as strong links, weak links also play a significant role on epidemic spreading.

Skeletal muscle protein accretion rates and hindlimb growth are reduced in late gestation intrauterine growth-restricted fetal sheep.

Science.gov (United States)

Rozance, Paul J; Zastoupil, Laura; Wesolowski, Stephanie R; Goldstrohm, David A; Strahan, Brittany; Cree-Green, Melanie; Sheffield-Moore, Melinda; Meschia, Giacomo; Hay, William W; Wilkening, Randall B; Brown, Laura D

2018-01-01

Adults who were affected by intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) suffer from reductions in muscle mass, which may contribute to insulin resistance and the development of diabetes. We demonstrate slower hindlimb linear growth and muscle protein synthesis rates that match the reduced hindlimb blood flow and oxygen consumption rates in IUGR fetal sheep. These adaptations resulted in hindlimb blood flow rates in IUGR that were similar to control fetuses on a weight-specific basis. Net hindlimb glucose uptake and lactate output rates were similar between groups, whereas amino acid uptake was significantly lower in IUGR fetal sheep. Among all fetuses, blood O 2 saturation and plasma glucose, insulin and insulin-like growth factor-1 were positively associated and norepinephrine was negatively associated with hindlimb weight. These results further our understanding of the metabolic and hormonal adaptations to reduced oxygen and nutrient supply with placental insufficiency that develop to slow hindlimb growth and muscle protein accretion. Reduced skeletal muscle mass in the fetus with intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) persists into adulthood and may contribute to increased metabolic disease risk. To determine how placental insufficiency with reduced oxygen and nutrient supply to the fetus affects hindlimb blood flow, substrate uptake and protein accretion rates in skeletal muscle, late gestation control (CON) (n = 8) and IUGR (n = 13) fetal sheep were catheterized with aortic and femoral catheters and a flow transducer around the external iliac artery. Muscle protein kinetic rates were measured using isotopic tracers. Hindlimb weight, linear growth rate, muscle protein accretion rate and fractional synthetic rate were lower in IUGR compared to CON (P fetal norepinephrine and reduced IGF-1 and insulin. © 2017 The Authors. The Journal of Physiology © 2017 The Physiological Society.

Ranking of Nodal Infection Probability in Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible Epidemic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Qu, B.; Li, C.; Van Mieghem, P.F.A.; Wang, H.

2017-01-01

The prevalence, which is the average fraction of infected nodes, has been studied to evaluate the robustness of a network subject to the spread of epidemics. We explore the vulnerability (infection probability) of each node in the metastable state with a given effective infection rate τ.

Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran.

Science.gov (United States)

McKelvie, William R; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar; Raeisi, Ahmad

2012-03-23

A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean+0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts.

A qualitative view of the HIV epidemic in coastal Ecuador.

Science.gov (United States)

Beckman, Adam L; Wilson, Magdalena M; Prabhu, Vishaal; Soekoe, Nicola; Mata, Humberto; Grau, Lauretta E

2016-01-01

In 2013 approximately 37,000 people were living with HIV in Ecuador (prevalence 0.4%), representing a generalized epidemic where most new infections arise from sexual interactions in the general population. Studies that examine attitudes towards people living with HIV (PLWH), individual risk perception of acquiring HIV amongst Ecuadorians, and the ways in which levels of risk perception may affect risk behaviors are lacking. This qualitative study aimed to fill this gap in the literature by investigating these issues in the rural, coastal community of Manglaralto, Ecuador, which has among the highest incidence of HIV in Ecuador. We conducted interviews with 15 patients at Manglaralto Hospital. Analysis of interview transcripts revealed widespread negative attitudes towards PLWH, prevalent risk behaviors such as multiple sex partners and lack of condom use, and low individual risk-perception of contracting HIV. These findings underscore the need for increased efforts to prevent further growth of the HIV epidemic in Ecuador.

A qualitative view of the HIV epidemic in coastal Ecuador

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adam L. Beckman

2016-11-01

Full Text Available In 2013 approximately 37,000 people were living with HIV in Ecuador (prevalence 0.4%, representing a generalized epidemic where most new infections arise from sexual interactions in the general population. Studies that examine attitudes towards people living with HIV (PLWH, individual risk perception of acquiring HIV amongst Ecuadorians, and the ways in which levels of risk perception may affect risk behaviors are lacking. This qualitative study aimed to fill this gap in the literature by investigating these issues in the rural, coastal community of Manglaralto, Ecuador, which has among the highest incidence of HIV in Ecuador. We conducted interviews with 15 patients at Manglaralto Hospital. Analysis of interview transcripts revealed widespread negative attitudes towards PLWH, prevalent risk behaviors such as multiple sex partners and lack of condom use, and low individual risk-perception of contracting HIV. These findings underscore the need for increased efforts to prevent further growth of the HIV epidemic in Ecuador.

Study on the PWSCC Crack Growth Rate for Steam Generator Tubing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Shin Hoo; Hwang, Il Soon; Lim, Jun; Lee, Seung Gi; Ryu, Kyung Ha

2008-03-01

Using in-situ Raman spectroscopy and crack growth rate lest system in simulated PWR primary water environment, the relationship between the oxide film chemistry and the PWSCC growth rate has been studied. We used I/2T compact tension specimen and disk specimen made of Alloy 182 and Alloy 600 for crack growth rate test and in-situ Raman spectroscopy measurement. Test was made in a refreshed autoclave with 30 cc STP / kg of dissolved hydrogen concentration. Conductivity, pH, dissolved hydrogen and oxygen concentration were continuously monitored at the outlet. The crack growth rate was measured by using switching DCPD technique under cyclinc triangular loading and at the same time oxide phase was determined by using in-situ Raman spectra at the elevation of the temperature. Additionally Raman spectroscopy was achieved for oxide phase transition of Alloy 600 according to the temperature and dissolved hydrogen concentration, 2 and 30cc STP / kg

Breast meat quality of chickens with divergent growth rates and its relation to growth curve parameters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. C. Muth

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The effects of the increase of body weight of contemporary broilers during growth on functional meat quality and color characteristics of the chicken breast muscle are controversially debated. Therefore, male chickens (n = 264 of a fast-growing commercial broiler (Ross 308 and two slow-growing experimental meat-type chicken lines were compared at equal age and at similar body weight in order to investigate the effect of growth rate on selected functional breast meat traits and meat color. Additionally, the breast meat characteristics of birds with different growth profiles were compared within lines. When the body weight of commercial broilers reached about 40 to 60 % of their growth potential, they exhibited particularly high ultimate pH values compared with slow-growing lines. The ability of the meat of fast-growing broilers to retain water during cooking was impaired (5 to 16 percentage points increased cooking loss compared to slow-growing lines, which, in contrast to pH, was only marginally affected by body weight and/or age at slaughter. No unfavorable correlations of breast meat quality traits with the growth profile, represented by growth curve parameters derived from the Gompertz–Laird equation, were detected within any of the investigated chicken lines. It is noteworthy that the associations of ultimate pH and cooking loss with maximum growth speed indicate a non-linear relationship. Thus, some of the functional characteristics of breast meat of the fast-growing broiler resembled the white-striping defect described for poultry meat, but the hypothesis that selection on increased growth rates is detrimental for meat quality per se could not be confirmed. In fact, an elevated growth potential in particular, i.e., body weight at maturity, could have some beneficial effects for the water-holding capacity of breast meat, regardless of the genotypic growth rate.

Long-term growth rates and effects of bleaching in Acropora hyacinthus

Science.gov (United States)

Gold, Zachary; Palumbi, Stephen R.

2018-03-01

Understanding the response of coral growth to natural variation in the environment, as well as to acute temperature stress under current and future climate change conditions, is critical to predicting the future health of coral reef ecosystems. As such, ecological surveys are beginning to focus on corals that live in high thermal stress environments to understand how future coral populations may adapt to climate change. We investigated the relationship between coral growth, thermal microhabitat, symbionts type, and thermal acclimatization of four species of the Acropora hyacinthus complex in back-reef lagoons in American Samoa. Coral growth was measured from August 2010 to April 2016 using horizontal planar area of coral colonies derived from photographs and in situ maximum width measurements. Despite marked intraspecific variation, we found that planar colony growth rates were significantly different among cryptic species. The highly heat tolerant A. hyacinthus variant "HE" increased in area an average of 2.9% month-1 (0.03 cm average mean radial extension month-1). By contrast, the three less tolerant species averaged 6.1% (0.07 cm average mean radial extension month-1). Planar growth rates were 40% higher on average in corals harboring Clade C versus Clade D symbiont types, although marked inter-colony variation in growth rendered this difference nonsignificant. Planar growth rates for all four species dropped to near zero following a 2015 bleaching event, independent of the visually estimated percent area of bleaching. Within 1 yr, growth rates recovered to previous levels, confirming previous studies that found sublethal effects of thermal stress on coral growth. Long-term studies of individual coral colonies provide an important tool to measure impacts of environmental change and allow integration of coral physiology, genetics, symbionts, and microclimate on reef growth patterns.

A Bayesian method for inferring transmission chains in a partially observed epidemic.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marzouk, Youssef M.; Ray, Jaideep

2008-10-01

We present a Bayesian approach for estimating transmission chains and rates in the Abakaliki smallpox epidemic of 1967. The epidemic affected 30 individuals in a community of 74; only the dates of appearance of symptoms were recorded. Our model assumes stochastic transmission of the infections over a social network. Distinct binomial random graphs model intra- and inter-compound social connections, while disease transmission over each link is treated as a Poisson process. Link probabilities and rate parameters are objects of inference. Dates of infection and recovery comprise the remaining unknowns. Distributions for smallpox incubation and recovery periods are obtained from historical data. Using Markov chain Monte Carlo, we explore the joint posterior distribution of the scalar parameters and provide an expected connectivity pattern for the social graph and infection pathway.

Estimating incidence from prevalence in generalised HIV epidemics: methods and validation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Timothy B Hallett

2008-04-01

Full Text Available HIV surveillance of generalised epidemics in Africa primarily relies on prevalence at antenatal clinics, but estimates of incidence in the general population would be more useful. Repeated cross-sectional measures of HIV prevalence are now becoming available for general populations in many countries, and we aim to develop and validate methods that use these data to estimate HIV incidence.Two methods were developed that decompose observed changes in prevalence between two serosurveys into the contributions of new infections and mortality. Method 1 uses cohort mortality rates, and method 2 uses information on survival after infection. The performance of these two methods was assessed using simulated data from a mathematical model and actual data from three community-based cohort studies in Africa. Comparison with simulated data indicated that these methods can accurately estimates incidence rates and changes in incidence in a variety of epidemic conditions. Method 1 is simple to implement but relies on locally appropriate mortality data, whilst method 2 can make use of the same survival distribution in a wide range of scenarios. The estimates from both methods are within the 95% confidence intervals of almost all actual measurements of HIV incidence in adults and young people, and the patterns of incidence over age are correctly captured.It is possible to estimate incidence from cross-sectional prevalence data with sufficient accuracy to monitor the HIV epidemic. Although these methods will theoretically work in any context, we have able to test them only in southern and eastern Africa, where HIV epidemics are mature and generalised. The choice of method will depend on the local availability of HIV mortality data.

Growth rate change driven by external perturbation in the azuki bean weevil

CERN Document Server

Fukano, T

2003-01-01

In laboratory experiments we obtain that the apparent growth rate of the population becomes larger than one under the normal condition, triggered by the external perturbation as the removal of individuals. The changed growth rate is stable for a while. We also propose a simple model of population dynamics allowing both matching and mis-matching the trend of the external perturbation, and show that the growth rate of the model population is changeable and stable to some extent.

Growth rate change driven by external perturbation in the azuki bean weevil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fukano, Takao; Gunji, Yukio-Pegio

2003-01-01

In laboratory experiments we obtain that the apparent growth rate of the population becomes larger than one under the normal condition, triggered by the external perturbation as the removal of individuals. The changed growth rate is stable for a while. We also propose a simple model of population dynamics allowing both matching and mis-matching the trend of the external perturbation, and show that the growth rate of the model population is changeable and stable to some extent

Cell Size and Growth Rate Are Modulated by TORC2-Dependent Signals.

Science.gov (United States)

Lucena, Rafael; Alcaide-Gavilán, Maria; Schubert, Katherine; He, Maybo; Domnauer, Matthew G; Marquer, Catherine; Klose, Christian; Surma, Michal A; Kellogg, Douglas R

2018-01-22

The size of all cells, from bacteria to vertebrates, is proportional to the growth rate set by nutrient availability, but the underlying mechanisms are unknown. Here, we show that nutrients modulate cell size and growth rate via the TORC2 signaling network in budding yeast. An important function of the TORC2 network is to modulate synthesis of ceramide lipids, which play roles in signaling. TORC2-dependent control of ceramide signaling strongly influences both cell size and growth rate. Thus, cells that cannot make ceramides fail to modulate their growth rate or size in response to changes in nutrients. PP2A associated with the Rts1 regulatory subunit (PP2A Rts1 ) is embedded in a feedback loop that controls TORC2 signaling and helps set the level of TORC2 signaling to match nutrient availability. Together, the data suggest a model in which growth rate and cell size are mechanistically linked by ceramide-dependent signals arising from the TORC2 network. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

McKelvie William R

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Methods Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. Results The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean + 0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Conclusions Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts.

Configuring the autism epidemic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Seeberg, Jens; Christensen, Fie Lund Lindegaard

2017-01-01

Autism has been described as an epidemic, but this claim is contested and may point to an awareness epidemic, i.e. changes in the definition of what autism is and more attention being invested in diagnosis leading to a rise in registered cases. The sex ratio of children diagnosed with autism...... is skewed in favour of boys, and girls with autism tend to be diagnosed much later than boys. Building and further developing the notion of ‘configuration’ of epidemics, this article explores the configuration of autism in Denmark, with a particular focus on the health system and social support to families...... with children diagnosed with autism, seen from a parental perspective. The article points to diagnostic dynamics that contribute to explaining why girls with autism are not diagnosed as easily as boys. We unfold these dynamics through the analysis of a case of a Danish family with autism....

Influence of Crucible Support Rod on the Growth Rate and Temperature Gradient in a Bridgman Growth of Tin Crystal

OpenAIRE

IMASHIMIZU, Yuji; MIURA, Koji; KAMATA, Masaki; WATANABE, Jiro

2003-01-01

Bridgman growth of tincrystal was carried out in a graphite crucible that was fixed on a quartz support rod or a copper one. The growth rate and axial temperature distribution were examined by recording the temperature variation with time at each of four prescribed positions in the solid-liquidsystem during solidification, l) Actual growth rate of crystal increased with progress of solidification while the furnace elevated at a constant rate, but the tendency was different depending on the ty...

[Specific growth rate and the rate of energy metabolism in the ontogenesis of axolotl, Ambystoma mexicanum (Amphibia: Ambystomatidae)].

Science.gov (United States)

Vladimirova, I G; Kleĭmenov, S Iu; Alekseeva, T A; Radzinskaia, L I

2003-01-01

Concordant changes in the rate of energy metabolism and specific growth rate of axolotls have been revealed. Several periods of ontogeny are distinguished, which differ in the ratio of energy metabolism to body weight and, therefore, are described by different allometric equations. It is suggested that the specific growth rate of an animal determines the type of dependence of energy metabolism on body weight.

Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

KAUST Repository

Paarporn, Keith

2017-07-20

We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent. A node\\'s awareness is weighted by the fraction of infected neighbors in their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire network. The dynamics of the benchmark (no awareness) and awareness models are described by discrete-time Markov chains, from which mean-field approximations (MFAs) are derived. The states of the MFA are interpreted as the nodes\\' probabilities of being infected. We show a sufficient condition for the existence of a

Optimal allocation of resources for suppressing epidemic spreading on networks

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Hanshuang; Li, Guofeng; Zhang, Haifeng; Hou, Zhonghuai

2017-07-01

Efficient allocation of limited medical resources is crucial for controlling epidemic spreading on networks. Based on the susceptible-infected-susceptible model, we solve the optimization problem of how best to allocate the limited resources so as to minimize prevalence, providing that the curing rate of each node is positively correlated to its medical resource. By quenched mean-field theory and heterogeneous mean-field (HMF) theory, we prove that an epidemic outbreak will be suppressed to the greatest extent if the curing rate of each node is directly proportional to its degree, under which the effective infection rate λ has a maximal threshold λcopt=1 / , where is the average degree of the underlying network. For a weak infection region (λ ≳λcopt ), we combine perturbation theory with the Lagrange multiplier method (LMM) to derive the analytical expression of optimal allocation of the curing rates and the corresponding minimized prevalence. For a general infection region (λ >λcopt ), the high-dimensional optimization problem is converted into numerically solving low-dimensional nonlinear equations by the HMF theory and LMM. Counterintuitively, in the strong infection region the low-degree nodes should be allocated more medical resources than the high-degree nodes to minimize prevalence. Finally, we use simulated annealing to validate the theoretical results.

Reverse-feeding effect of epidemic by propagators in two-layered networks

Science.gov (United States)

Dayu, Wu; Yanping, Zhao; Muhua, Zheng; Jie, Zhou; Zonghua, Liu

2016-02-01

Epidemic spreading has been studied for a long time and is currently focused on the spreading of multiple pathogens, especially in multiplex networks. However, little attention has been paid to the case where the mutual influence between different pathogens comes from a fraction of epidemic propagators, such as bisexual people in two separated groups of heterosexual and homosexual people. We here study this topic by presenting a network model of two layers connected by impulsive links, in contrast to the persistent links in each layer. We let each layer have a distinct pathogen and their interactive infection is implemented by a fraction of propagators jumping between the corresponding pairs of nodes in the two layers. By this model we show that (i) the propagators take the key role to transmit pathogens from one layer to the other, which significantly influences the stabilized epidemics; (ii) the epidemic thresholds will be changed by the propagators; and (iii) a reverse-feeding effect can be expected when the infective rate is smaller than its threshold of isolated spreading. A theoretical analysis is presented to explain the numerical results. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 11135001, 11375066, and 11405059) and the National Basic Key Program of China (Grant No. 2013CB834100).

Postnatal growth rates covary weakly with embryonic development rates and do not explain adult mortality probability among songbirds on four continents.

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Thomas E; Oteyza, Juan C; Mitchell, Adam E; Potticary, Ahva L; Lloyd, Penn

2015-03-01

Growth and development rates may result from genetic programming of intrinsic processes that yield correlated rates between life stages. These intrinsic rates are thought to affect adult mortality probability and longevity. However, if proximate extrinsic factors (e.g., temperature, food) influence development rates differently between stages and yield low covariance between stages, then development rates may not explain adult mortality probability. We examined these issues based on study of 90 songbird species on four continents to capture the diverse life-history strategies observed across geographic space. The length of the embryonic period explained little variation (ca. 13%) in nestling periods and growth rates among species. This low covariance suggests that the relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic influences on growth and development rates differs between stages. Consequently, nestling period durations and nestling growth rates were not related to annual adult mortality probability among diverse songbird species within or among sites. The absence of a clear effect of faster growth on adult mortality when examined in an evolutionary framework across species may indicate that species that evolve faster growth also evolve physiological mechanisms for ameliorating costs on adult mortality. Instead, adult mortality rates of species in the wild may be determined more strongly by extrinsic environmental causes.

Human Genetic Variation and Yellow Fever Mortality during 19th Century U.S. Epidemics

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

ABSTRACT We calculated the incidence, mortality, and case fatality rates for Caucasians and non-Caucasians during 19th century yellow fever (YF) epidemics in the United States and determined statistical significance for differences in the rates in different populations. We evaluated nongenetic host factors, including socioeconomic, environmental, cultural, demographic, and acquired immunity status that could have influenced these differences. While differences in incidence rates were not significant between Caucasians and non-Caucasians, differences in mortality and case fatality rates were statistically significant for all epidemics tested (P < 0.01). Caucasians diagnosed with YF were 6.8 times more likely to succumb than non-Caucasians with the disease. No other major causes of death during the 19th century demonstrated a similar mortality skew toward Caucasians. Nongenetic host factors were examined and could not explain these large differences. We propose that the remarkably lower case mortality rates for individuals of non-Caucasian ancestry is the result of human genetic variation in loci encoding innate immune mediators. PMID:24895309

Ergodicity, hidden bias and the growth rate gain

Science.gov (United States)

Rochman, Nash D.; Popescu, Dan M.; Sun, Sean X.

2018-05-01

Many single-cell observables are highly heterogeneous. A part of this heterogeneity stems from age-related phenomena: the fact that there is a nonuniform distribution of cells with different ages. This has led to a renewed interest in analytic methodologies including use of the ‘von Foerster equation’ for predicting population growth and cell age distributions. Here we discuss how some of the most popular implementations of this machinery assume a strong condition on the ergodicity of the cell cycle duration ensemble. We show that one common definition for the term ergodicity, ‘a single individual observed over many generations recapitulates the behavior of the entire ensemble’ is implied by the other, ‘the probability of observing any state is conserved across time and over all individuals’ in an ensemble with a fixed number of individuals but that this is not true when the ensemble is growing. We further explore the impact of generational correlations between cell cycle durations on the population growth rate. Finally, we explore the ‘growth rate gain’—the phenomenon that variations in the cell cycle duration leads to an improved population-level growth rate—in this context. We highlight that, fundamentally, this effect is due to asymmetric division.

Effect of neutron irradiation on hatching rate of eggs and growth rate of chicken

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Yubin; Zhao Jide; Liu Shengdian; Xy Xiuwei

1995-01-01

It was proved through 3 years of experiments and productions that after the eggs of AA meat chickens being irradiated by 14 MeV fast neutron, the hatching rate and the survival rate as well the weight of commercial chickens increased greatly. In addition it is found that the optimum neutron fluence for hatching and growth rate is 6.2 x 10 5 n·cm -2

CHRONIC UNSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL GROWTH RATE: TURKISH EXPERIENCE, 1960-2006

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MUSTAFA İSMİHAN

2013-06-01

Full Text Available This study investigates the role of macroeconomic instability on potential growth rate of output in Turkey over the period 1960-2006. In doing so, it also attempts to estimate the potential growth rate of Turkish economy over the sample period by using Hodrick-Prescott filter and model based on production function approach. Descriptive and empirical results suggest that Turkish economy suffered from a significant output loss during the chronic instability episodes, between the mid-1970s and 2001. A significant fall in macroeconomic instability has provided the main contribution to the achievement of the recent high growth episode (2002-2006 of Turkish economy. However, in order to continue the desired high growth performance in near future it is necessary to accelerate both human and physical capital formation while preserving stability.

Growth, Mortality and Exploitation Rates of Sarotherodon ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Evans

ABSTRACT. Sarotherodon melanotheron population of Dominli Lagoon in the Western Region of Ghana was studied for its growth and mortality parameters as well as exploitation rate. The study generally aimed at providing basic information necessary for the assessment and management of the fish stock in the lagoon.

A review on pipeline corrosion, in-line inspection (ILI), and corrosion growth rate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vanaei, H.R.; Eslami, A.; Egbewande, A.

2017-01-01

Pipelines are the very important energy transmission systems. Over time, pipelines can corrode. While corrosion could be detected by in-line inspection (ILI) tools, corrosion growth rate prediction in pipelines is usually done through corrosion rate models. For pipeline integrity management and planning selecting the proper corrosion ILI tool and also corrosion growth rate model is important and can lead to significant savings and safer pipe operation. In this paper common forms of pipeline corrosion, state of the art ILI tools, and also corrosion growth rate models are reviewed. The common forms of pipeline corrosion introduced in this paper are Uniform/General Corrosion, Pitting Corrosion, Cavitation and Erosion Corrosion, Stray Current Corrosion, Micro-Bacterial Influenced Corrosion (MIC). The ILI corrosion detection tools assessed in this study are Magnetic Flux Leakage (MFL), Circumferential MFL, Tri-axial MFL, and Ultrasonic Wall Measurement (UT). The corrosion growth rate models considered in this study are single-value corrosion rate model, linear corrosion growth rate model, non-linear corrosion growth rate model, Monte-Carlo method, Markov model, TD-GEVD, TI-GEVD model, Gamma Process, and BMWD model. Strengths and limitations of ILI detection tools, and also corrosion predictive models with some practical examples are discussed. This paper could be useful for those whom are supporting pipeline integrity management and planning. - Highlights: • Different forms of pipeline corrosion are explained. • Common In-Line Inspection (ILI) tools and corrosion growth rate models are introduced. • Strength and limitations of corrosion growth rate models/ILI tools are discussed. • For pipeline integrity management programs using more than one corrosion growth rate model/ILI tool is suggested.

Phylodynamic analysis of HIV sub-epidemics in Mochudi, Botswana

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vlad Novitsky

2015-12-01

Real-time HIV genotyping and breaking down local HIV epidemics into phylogenetically distinct sub-epidemics may help to reveal the structure and dynamics of HIV transmission networks in communities, and aid in the design of targeted interventions for members of the acute sub-epidemics that likely fuel local HIV/AIDS epidemics.

Stainless steels: general considerations and rates of crack growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chator, T.

1992-05-01

This report describes the different types of stainless steels, and presents the laws governing the rates of crack growth for several stainless steels extensively used for the manufacture of structures in nuclear power plants. The laws are not discussed in detail in the report. After a brief review of the development of stainless steels, the main categories of stainless steels, their mechanical characteristics and corrosion resistance, are presented. Finally, the rates of crack growth are presented for various stainless steels, mainly austenitic. The study overall aim is an investigation of the cracking in the 900 MWe primary pump thermal barriers and shafts

[Observations on the 1348 plague epidemic. Measures taken to combat its tragic effects and avoid epidemic recrudescence].

Science.gov (United States)

Sabbatani, Sergio

2003-03-01

When the "Black Death" swept through Europe from southern France in 1348, in the short space of two years the Europeans were hit by one of the most serious epidemics ever recorded in human history. Yersinia pestis reached Europe by sea, its contamination propagated by the Genoese ships coming from the Crimean port of Jaffa. For the first time the world experienced microbiological unification: East and West were equally involved in the tragedy that spread, and no town remained unscathed during the various epidemic waves which succeeded one another in the following three centuries. The authors of this article describe how and why the epidemic spread, as well as the factors that led to the swift, and often fatal, involment of millions of Europeans. The second part of the article deals with the measures taken by the healthcare authorities of European towns and countries in order to halt the proliferation of the disease. According to the data and observations by authoritative authors, selected among the many who studied the disease that from the 14th century spread like a scourge throughout the known world at the time, the epidemic could have been even more serious, in terms of mortality and morbidity, without the disciplinary and provisional health measures taken. The experience gained in Italy and all over Europe at the time proved useful not only to better manage the epidemics which cyclically broke out, but also to efficiently combat the cholera epidemics of the 19th century. With the 14th century plague epidemic, the Europeans and their political and administrative representatives may well have realized for the very first time that contamination could be combatted by adopting a set of rational, scientific norms - although in practice such rules were mostly inspired by misguided scientific theories. Humankind was no longer alone. A new society was emerging, one that was not going to passively accept the more or less mysterious ways of a superior being of fate. The

DETERMINATION OF THE SPECIFIC GROWTH RATE ON ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Sewage generation is one of the dense problems Nigerians encounter on daily bases, mostly at the urbanized area where factories and industries are located. This paper is aimed at determining the specific growth rate “K” of biological activities on cassava wastewater during degradation using Michaelis-Menten Equation.

A Study Of Hospitalised Cases Of Acute Gastroenteritis Admitted In Civil Hospital, Ahmedabad During The Epidemic Of 1988.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kumar P

1990-01-01

Full Text Available An epidemic of gastroenteritis occurred between July and November 1988 in Ahmedabad City. The epidemic originated from Saijpur Bocha locality of the city and thereafter several new foci also development. The city has a number of Government and Municipal Corporation run hospitals as well as private treatment centers where these cases were treated. The Corporation also took measures to control this epidemic. The present study analysis the cases of gastroenteritis (2008 and cholera (112 admitted to the Civil Hospital during this period. The cases occurred in all age groups and both sexes. However, when compared with hospital records of previous non- epidemic years, more cases were found in the adult population and the case fatality rate was low during this epidemic. The study details the various control measures taken by the Municipal Corporation.

Size-dependent standard deviation for growth rates: empirical results and theoretical modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Podobnik, Boris; Horvatic, Davor; Pammolli, Fabio; Wang, Fengzhong; Stanley, H Eugene; Grosse, I

2008-05-01

We study annual logarithmic growth rates R of various economic variables such as exports, imports, and foreign debt. For each of these variables we find that the distributions of R can be approximated by double exponential (Laplace) distributions in the central parts and power-law distributions in the tails. For each of these variables we further find a power-law dependence of the standard deviation sigma(R) on the average size of the economic variable with a scaling exponent surprisingly close to that found for the gross domestic product (GDP) [Phys. Rev. Lett. 81, 3275 (1998)]. By analyzing annual logarithmic growth rates R of wages of 161 different occupations, we find a power-law dependence of the standard deviation sigma(R) on the average value of the wages with a scaling exponent beta approximately 0.14 close to those found for the growth of exports, imports, debt, and the growth of the GDP. In contrast to these findings, we observe for payroll data collected from 50 states of the USA that the standard deviation sigma(R) of the annual logarithmic growth rate R increases monotonically with the average value of payroll. However, also in this case we observe a power-law dependence of sigma(R) on the average payroll with a scaling exponent beta approximately -0.08 . Based on these observations we propose a stochastic process for multiple cross-correlated variables where for each variable (i) the distribution of logarithmic growth rates decays exponentially in the central part, (ii) the distribution of the logarithmic growth rate decays algebraically in the far tails, and (iii) the standard deviation of the logarithmic growth rate depends algebraically on the average size of the stochastic variable.

Size-dependent standard deviation for growth rates: Empirical results and theoretical modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Podobnik, Boris; Horvatic, Davor; Pammolli, Fabio; Wang, Fengzhong; Stanley, H. Eugene; Grosse, I.

2008-05-01

We study annual logarithmic growth rates R of various economic variables such as exports, imports, and foreign debt. For each of these variables we find that the distributions of R can be approximated by double exponential (Laplace) distributions in the central parts and power-law distributions in the tails. For each of these variables we further find a power-law dependence of the standard deviation σ(R) on the average size of the economic variable with a scaling exponent surprisingly close to that found for the gross domestic product (GDP) [Phys. Rev. Lett. 81, 3275 (1998)]. By analyzing annual logarithmic growth rates R of wages of 161 different occupations, we find a power-law dependence of the standard deviation σ(R) on the average value of the wages with a scaling exponent β≈0.14 close to those found for the growth of exports, imports, debt, and the growth of the GDP. In contrast to these findings, we observe for payroll data collected from 50 states of the USA that the standard deviation σ(R) of the annual logarithmic growth rate R increases monotonically with the average value of payroll. However, also in this case we observe a power-law dependence of σ(R) on the average payroll with a scaling exponent β≈-0.08 . Based on these observations we propose a stochastic process for multiple cross-correlated variables where for each variable (i) the distribution of logarithmic growth rates decays exponentially in the central part, (ii) the distribution of the logarithmic growth rate decays algebraically in the far tails, and (iii) the standard deviation of the logarithmic growth rate depends algebraically on the average size of the stochastic variable.

Modelling the dynamics of nonendemic epidemics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramani, A.; Grammaticos, B.; Satsuma, J.

2009-01-01

We present two models for an epidemic where the individuals are infective over a fixed period of time and which never becomes endemic i.e., no infective individuals remain after the epidemic has run its course. The first model is based on a delay-difference scheme. We show that, as a function of the delay (which corresponds to the period of infectiveness) the percentage of non-infected population varies over a wide range. We present also a variant of our model where the recovery rate follows a Poisson law and obtain a discrete version of the SIR model. We estimate the percentage of non-infected population in the two models, show that they lead to almost the same values and present an explanation of this fact. The second model is based on the assumption that the infection is spread by carriers. Under the hypothesis that the carriers are relatively long-lived, and that the number of the infected ones is a relatively small fraction of the total population of potential carriers, we show that the model reduces to the same version of the discrete SIR obtained by our first model.

The Zika epidemic and abortion in Latin America: a scoping review.

Science.gov (United States)

Carabali, Mabel; Austin, Nichole; King, Nicholas B; Kaufman, Jay S

2018-01-01

Latin America presently has the world's highest burden of Zika virus, but there are unexplained differences in national rates of congenital malformations collectively referred to as Congenital Zika Syndrome (CZS) in the region. While Zika virulence and case detection likely contribute to these differences, policy-related factors, including access to abortion, may play important roles. Our goal was to assess perspectives on, and access to, abortion in Latin America in the context of the Zika epidemic. We conducted a scoping review of peer-reviewed and gray literature published between January 2015 and December 2016, written in English, Spanish, Portuguese, or French. We searched PubMed, Scielo, and Google Scholar for literature on Zika and/or CZS and abortion, and used automated and manual review methods to synthesize the existing information. 36 publications met our inclusion criteria, the majority of which were qualitative. Publications were generally in favor of increased access to safe abortion as a policy-level response for mitigating the impact of CZS, but issues with implementation were cited as the main challenge. Aside from the reform of abortion regulation in Colombia, we did not find evidence that the Zika epidemic had triggered shifts in abortion policy in other countries. Abortion policy in the region remained largely unchanged following the Zika epidemic. Further empirical research on abortion access and differential rates of CZS across Latin American countries is required.

Mathematical model for predicting molecular-beam epitaxy growth rates for wafer production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shi, B.Q.

2003-01-01

An analytical mathematical model for predicting molecular-beam epitaxy (MBE) growth rates is reported. The mathematical model solves the mass-conservation equation for liquid sources in conical crucibles and predicts the growth rate by taking into account the effect of growth source depletion on the growth rate. Assumptions made for deducing the analytical model are discussed. The model derived contains only one unknown parameter, the value of which can be determined by using data readily available to MBE growers. Procedures are outlined for implementing the model in MBE production of III-V compound semiconductor device wafers. Results from use of the model to obtain targeted layer compositions and thickness of InP-based heterojunction bipolar transistor wafers are presented

Understanding Ebola: the 2014 epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaner, Jolie; Schaack, Sarah

2016-09-13

Near the end of 2013, an outbreak of Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) began in Guinea, subsequently spreading to neighboring Liberia and Sierra Leone. As this epidemic grew, important public health questions emerged about how and why this outbreak was so different from previous episodes. This review provides a synthetic synopsis of the 2014-15 outbreak, with the aim of understanding its unprecedented spread. We present a summary of the history of previous epidemics, describe the structure and genetics of the ebolavirus, and review our current understanding of viral vectors and the latest treatment practices. We conclude with an analysis of the public health challenges epidemic responders faced and some of the lessons that could be applied to future outbreaks of Ebola or other viruses.

Mathematical modeling, analysis and Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation of Ebola epidemics

Science.gov (United States)

Tulu, Thomas Wetere; Tian, Boping; Wu, Zunyou

Ebola virus infection is a severe infectious disease with the highest case fatality rate which become the global public health treat now. What makes the disease the worst of all is no specific effective treatment available, its dynamics is not much researched and understood. In this article a new mathematical model incorporating both vaccination and quarantine to study the dynamics of Ebola epidemic has been developed and comprehensively analyzed. The existence as well as uniqueness of the solution to the model is also verified and the basic reproduction number is calculated. Besides, stability conditions are also checked and finally simulation is done using both Euler method and one of the top ten most influential algorithm known as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Different rates of vaccination to predict the effect of vaccination on the infected individual over time and that of quarantine are discussed. The results show that quarantine and vaccination are very effective ways to control Ebola epidemic. From our study it was also seen that there is less possibility of an individual for getting Ebola virus for the second time if they survived his/her first infection. Last but not least real data has been fitted to the model, showing that it can used to predict the dynamic of Ebola epidemic.

Growth rate in the dynamical dark energy models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Avsajanishvili, Olga; Arkhipova, Natalia A.; Samushia, Lado; Kahniashvili, Tina

2014-01-01

Dark energy models with a slowly rolling cosmological scalar field provide a popular alternative to the standard, time-independent cosmological constant model. We study the simultaneous evolution of background expansion and growth in the scalar field model with the Ratra-Peebles self-interaction potential. We use recent measurements of the linear growth rate and the baryon acoustic oscillation peak positions to constrain the model parameter α that describes the steepness of the scalar field potential. (orig.)

Growth rate in the dynamical dark energy models.

Science.gov (United States)

Avsajanishvili, Olga; Arkhipova, Natalia A; Samushia, Lado; Kahniashvili, Tina

Dark energy models with a slowly rolling cosmological scalar field provide a popular alternative to the standard, time-independent cosmological constant model. We study the simultaneous evolution of background expansion and growth in the scalar field model with the Ratra-Peebles self-interaction potential. We use recent measurements of the linear growth rate and the baryon acoustic oscillation peak positions to constrain the model parameter [Formula: see text] that describes the steepness of the scalar field potential.

Inferring epidemic contact structure from phylogenetic trees.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabriel E Leventhal

Full Text Available Contact structure is believed to have a large impact on epidemic spreading and consequently using networks to model such contact structure continues to gain interest in epidemiology. However, detailed knowledge of the exact contact structure underlying real epidemics is limited. Here we address the question whether the structure of the contact network leaves a detectable genetic fingerprint in the pathogen population. To this end we compare phylogenies generated by disease outbreaks in simulated populations with different types of contact networks. We find that the shape of these phylogenies strongly depends on contact structure. In particular, measures of tree imbalance allow us to quantify to what extent the contact structure underlying an epidemic deviates from a null model contact network and illustrate this in the case of random mixing. Using a phylogeny from the Swiss HIV epidemic, we show that this epidemic has a significantly more unbalanced tree than would be expected from random mixing.

Malaria epidemic and drug resistance, Djibouti.

Science.gov (United States)

Rogier, Christophe; Pradines, Bruno; Bogreau, H; Koeck, Jean-Louis; Kamil, Mohamed-Ali; Mercereau-Puijalon, Odile

2005-02-01

Analysis of Plasmodium falciparum isolates collected before, during, and after a 1999 malaria epidemic in Djibouti shows that, despite a high prevalence of resistance to chloroquine, the epidemic cannot be attributed to a sudden increase in drug resistance of local parasite populations.

Epidemic spreading induced by diversity of agents' mobility.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Jie; Chung, Ning Ning; Chew, Lock Yue; Lai, Choy Heng

2012-08-01

In this paper, we study the impact of the preference of an individual for public transport on the spread of infectious disease, through a quantity known as the public mobility. Our theoretical and numerical results based on a constructed model reveal that if the average public mobility of the agents is fixed, an increase in the diversity of the agents' public mobility reduces the epidemic threshold, beyond which an enhancement in the rate of infection is observed. Our findings provide an approach to improve the resistance of a society against infectious disease, while preserving the utilization rate of the public transportation system.

Non-homogeneous stochastic birth and death processes with applications to epidemic outbreak data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van den Broek, J.

2012-01-01

The subject of this thesis is the non-homogeneous birth-death process with some of its special cases and its use in modeling epidemic data. This model describes changes in the size of a population. New population members can appear with a rate, called the birth rate or the reproductive power, and

Calcite growth-rate inhibition by fulvic acid and magnesium ion—Possible influence on biogenic calcite formation

Science.gov (United States)

Reddy, Michael M.

2012-01-01

Increases in ocean surface water dissolved carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations retard biocalcification by reducing calcite supersaturation (Ωc). Reduced calcification rates may influence growth-rate dependent magnesium ion (Mg) incorporation into biogenic calcite modifying the use of calcifying organisms as paleoclimate proxies. Fulvic acid (FA) at biocalcification sites may further reduce calcification rates. Calcite growth-rate inhibition by FA and Mg, two common constituents of seawater and soil water involved in the formation of biogenic calcite, was measured separately and in combination under identical, highly reproducible experimental conditions. Calcite growth rates (pH=8.5 and Ωc=4.5) are reduced by FA (0.5 mg/L) to 47% and by Mg (10−4 M) to 38%, compared to control experiments containing no added growth-rate inhibitor. Humic acid (HA) is twice as effective a calcite growth-rate inhibitor as FA. Calcite growth rate in the presence of both FA (0.5 mg/L) and Mg (10−4 M) is reduced to 5% of the control rate. Mg inhibits calcite growth rates by substitution for calcium ion at the growth site. In contrast, FA inhibits calcite growth rates by binding multiple carboxylate groups on the calcite surface. FA and Mg together have an increased affinity for the calcite growth sites reducing calcite growth rates.

Coordinated Changes in Mutation and Growth Rates Induced by Genome Reduction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Issei Nishimura

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Genome size is determined during evolution, but it can also be altered by genetic engineering in laboratories. The systematic characterization of reduced genomes provides valuable insights into the cellular properties that are quantitatively described by the global parameters related to the dynamics of growth and mutation. In the present study, we analyzed a small collection of W3110 Escherichia coli derivatives containing either the wild-type genome or reduced genomes of various lengths to examine whether the mutation rate, a global parameter representing genomic plasticity, was affected by genome reduction. We found that the mutation rates of these cells increased with genome reduction. The correlation between genome length and mutation rate, which has been reported for the evolution of bacteria, was also identified, intriguingly, for genome reduction. Gene function enrichment analysis indicated that the deletion of many of the genes encoding membrane and transport proteins play a role in the mutation rate changes mediated by genome reduction. Furthermore, the increase in the mutation rate with genome reduction was highly associated with a decrease in the growth rate in a nutrition-dependent manner; thus, poorer media showed a larger change that was of higher significance. This negative correlation was strongly supported by experimental evidence that the serial transfer of the reduced genome improved the growth rate and reduced the mutation rate to a large extent. Taken together, the global parameters corresponding to the genome, growth, and mutation showed a coordinated relationship, which might be an essential working principle for balancing the cellular dynamics appropriate to the environment.

Diagnostic Accuracy of Growth Rate in Differentiating Etiologies of Short Stature in Children

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Mohammad Reza Alaei

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Background  Short stature is a manifestation of a wide variety of conditions that some of which may be amenable to timely treatment and a suboptimal growth rate may be an early marker pointing to the cause of growth retardation. This study was conducted to evaluate the diagnostic utility of growth rate in differential diagnosis of children with short stature. Materials and Methods All children between the ages of 2 and 18 years who visited in pediatric endocrinology clinic in a five years period were recruited in a prospective cohort study. Children with standing height Results One hundred forty three patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Mean follow up period was 14.4±10.9 months. Etiologies of short stature were: constitutional growth delay (CGD 46.9%, familial short stature (FSS 28.7%, hypothyroidism 4.2%, growth hormone deficiency (GHD 4.2% and miscellaneous causes in 16% of patients.  Mean Z- score for children with constitutional growth delay was -2.3±0.69, in familial short stature was -2.3±0.65 and for other condition was -2.7±1.49. There was a meaningful statistical correlation between growth rate and etiology of short stature (P0.05. Conclusion There was significant difference in growth rate between children with constitutional growth delay and familial short stature in comparing to short stature due to endocrine problem and other etiologies. Assessment of growth rate has some utility in diagnosing the etiology of short stature.

Daily changes in temperature, not the circadian clock, regulate growth rate in Brachypodium distachyon.

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Dominick A Matos

Full Text Available Plant growth is commonly regulated by external cues such as light, temperature, water availability, and internal cues generated by the circadian clock. Changes in the rate of growth within the course of a day have been observed in the leaves, stems, and roots of numerous species. However, the relative impact of the circadian clock on the growth of grasses has not been thoroughly characterized. We examined the influence of diurnal temperature and light changes, and that of the circadian clock on leaf length growth patterns in Brachypodium distachyon using high-resolution time-lapse imaging. Pronounced changes in growth rate were observed under combined photocyles and thermocycles or with thermocycles alone. A considerably more rapid growth rate was observed at 28°C than 12°C, irrespective of the presence or absence of light. In spite of clear circadian clock regulated gene expression, plants exhibited no change in growth rate under conditions of constant light and temperature, and little or no effect under photocycles alone. Therefore, temperature appears to be the primary cue influencing observed oscillations in growth rate and not the circadian clock or photoreceptor activity. Furthermore, the size of the leaf meristem and final cell length did not change in response to changes in temperature. Therefore, the nearly five-fold difference in growth rate observed across thermocycles can be attributed to proportionate changes in the rate of cell division and expansion. A better understanding of the growth cues in B. distachyon will further our ability to model metabolism and biomass accumulation in grasses.

Coevolution of Epidemics, Social Networks, and Individual Behavior: A Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Jiangzhuo; Marathe, Achla; Marathe, Madhav

This research shows how a limited supply of antivirals can be distributed optimally between the hospitals and the market so that the attack rate is minimized and enough revenue is generated to recover the cost of the antivirals. Results using an individual based model find that prevalence elastic demand behavior delays the epidemic and change in the social contact network induced by isolation reduces the peak of the epidemic significantly. A microeconomic analysis methodology combining behavioral economics and agent-based simulation is a major contribution of this work. In this paper we apply this methodology to analyze the fairness of the stockpile distribution, and the response of human behavior to disease prevalence level and its interaction with the market.

Dispersion relation and growth rate in a Cherenkov free electron laser: Finite axial magnetic field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kheiri, Golshad; Esmaeilzadeh, Mahdi

2013-01-01

A theoretical analysis is presented for dispersion relation and growth rate in a Cherenkov free electron laser with finite axial magnetic field. It is shown that the growth rate and the resonance frequency of Cherenkov free electron laser increase with increasing axial magnetic field for low axial magnetic fields, while for high axial magnetic fields, they go to a saturation value. The growth rate and resonance frequency saturation values are exactly the same as those for infinite axial magnetic field approximation. The effects of electron beam self-fields on growth rate are investigated, and it is shown that the growth rate decreases in the presence of self-fields. It is found that there is an optimum value for electron beam density and Lorentz relativistic factor at which the maximum growth rate can take place. Also, the effects of velocity spread of electron beam are studied and it is found that the growth rate decreases due to the electron velocity spread

Spatial distribution of soda straws growth rates of the Coufin Cave (Vercors, France

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Perrette Yves

2010-07-01

Full Text Available The Choranche Cave system (Vercors, France is an excellent locality for measuring the growth rates of large numbers soda straws. This is especially the case for the Coufin Cave, as enlargement of the cave entrance in 1875 led to a change in stalactite color from brown to white, thus providing a reliable chronomarker. The date of this brown-to-white calcite transition has been confirmed by lamina counting. We measured and georeferenced the growth-lengths of 306 soda straws in a 1m2 area of the roof of the Coufin Cave entrance chamber. Because of the very slow and sometimes inexistent water feeding of those stalactites, hydrochemistry analysis were not achieved and drop rate effect on growth were neglected; this study is based on a geomorphological and geostatistical work. By measuring a large number of soda straws in a very small area for which most of the parameters affecting stalactite growth could be considered uniform, and because flow rates are very slow (frequencies are always superior to 1 drop per half hour, we could ascribe differences in growth rates to variations in the global increase of water flow through the unsaturated matrix. Statistical and geostatistical analyses of the measurements showed that this set of similarly shaped stalactites actually consisted of three Gaussian populations with different mean growth rates: fast growth rate (FGR- mean of 0.92 mm.y-1, medium growth rate (MGR- mean of 0.47 mm.y-1 and low growth rate (LGR- 0.09 mm.y-1. Plotting the lengths and spatial distribution of the 20 longest FGR soda straws revealed that there is a rough pattern to the water flow through the cave roof. Even if no direction is statisticaly different from others, the observed directional pattern is consistent with local and regional tectonic observations. Plots of the spatial distribution of the soda straws show that FGR soda straws follow lines of regional geological stress, whereas MGR and LGR soda straws are more dispersed.

Variability in growth rates of larval haddock in the northern North Sea

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gallego, A.; Heath, M.R.; Basford, D.J.

1999-01-01

of the spring plankton production bloom, and a likely explanation for the absence of environmental effects on larval growth was high food availability and larval feeding rates. Nevertheless, differences in growth were observed between cohorts, with larvae hatched later in the spring displaying higher growth...... at age than those hatched earlier. Particle-tracking modelling suggested that differences in temperature history between cohorts, on their own or compounded by a potential interaction between temperature and the development of plankton production, may explain the higher growth rate of the larvae hatched...

Gross domestic product growth rates as confined Lévy flights: Towards a unifying theory of economic growth rate fluctuations

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Lera, Sandro Claudio; Sornette, Didier

2018-01-01

A model that combines economic growth rate fluctuations at the microscopic and macroscopic levels is presented. At the microscopic level, firms are growing at different rates while also being exposed to idiosyncratic shocks at the firm and sector levels. We describe such fluctuations as independent Lévy-stable fluctuations, varying over multiple orders of magnitude. These fluctuations are aggregated and measured at the macroscopic level in averaged economic output quantities such as GDP. A fundamental question is thereby to what extent individual firm size fluctuations can have a noticeable impact on the overall economy. We argue that this question can be answered by considering the Lévy fluctuations as embedded in a steep confining potential well, ensuring nonlinear mean-reversal behavior, without having to rely on microscopic details of the system. The steepness of the potential well directly controls the extent to which idiosyncratic shocks to firms and sectors are damped at the level of the economy. Additionally, the theory naturally accounts for business cycles, represented in terms of a bimodal economic output distribution and thus connects two so far unrelated fields in economics. By analyzing 200 years of U.S. gross domestic product growth rates, we find that the model is in good agreement with the data.

Can epidemics be non-communicable?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Seeberg, Jens; Meinert, Lotte

2015-01-01

This article argues that the concept of communicability that is central to the distinction between communicable diseases (CDs) and noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is poorly conceptualized. The epidemic spread of NCDs such as diabetes, depression, and eating disorders demonstrates...... that they are communicable, even if they are not infectious. We need to more critically explore how they might be communicable in specific environments. All diseases with epidemic potential, we argue, should be assumed to be commun icable in a broader sense, and that the underlying medical distinction between infectious...... and noninfectious diseases confuses our understanding of NCD epidemics when these categories are treated as synonymous with ‘communicable’ and ‘noncommunicable’ diseases, respectively. The dominant role accorded to the concept of ‘lifestyle’, with its focus on individual responsibility, is part of the problem...

Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Liu, M.; Li, D.; Qin, P.; Liu, C.; Wang, H.; Wang, F.

2015-01-01

Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks

Influence of corruption on economic growth rate and foreign investment

Science.gov (United States)

Podobnik, Boris; Shao, Jia; Njavro, Djuro; Ivanov, Plamen Ch.; Stanley, H. E.

2008-06-01

We analyze the dependence of the Gross Domestic Product ( GDP) per capita growth rates on changes in the Corruption Perceptions Index ( CPI). For the period 1999 2004 for all countries in the world, we find on average that an increase of CPI by one unit leads to an increase of the annual GDP per capita growth rate by 1.7%. By regressing only the European countries with transition economies, we find that an increase of CPI by one unit generates an increase of the annual GDP per capita growth rate by 2.4%. We also analyze the relation between foreign direct investments received by different countries and CPI, and we find a statistically significant power-law functional dependence between foreign direct investment per capita and the country corruption level measured by the CPI. We introduce a new measure to quantify the relative corruption between countries based on their respective wealth as measured by GDP per capita.

Risk factors for measles mortality and the importance of decentralized case management during an unusually large measles epidemic in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo in 2013

OpenAIRE

Gignoux, E; Polonsky, J; Ciglenecki, I; Bichet, M; Coldiron, M; Thuambe Lwiyo, E; Akonda, I; Serafini, M; Porten, K

2018-01-01

In 2013, a large measles epidemic occurred in the Aketi Health Zone of the Democratic Republic of Congo. We conducted a two-stage, retrospective cluster survey to estimate the attack rate, the case fatality rate, and the measles-specific mortality rate during the epidemic. 1424 households containing 7880 individuals were included. The estimated attack rate was 14.0%, (35.0% among children aged

Epidemic spreading on dynamical networks with temporary hubs and stable scale-free degree distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, An-Cai

2014-01-01

Recent empirical analyses of some realistic dynamical networks have demonstrated that their degree distributions are stable scale-free (SF), but the instantaneous well-connected hubs at one point of time can quickly become weakly connected. Motivated by these empirical results, we propose a simple toy dynamical agent-to-agent contact network model, in which each agent stays at one node of a static underlay network and the nearest neighbors swap their positions with each other. Although the degree distribution of the dynamical network model at any one time is equal to that in the static underlay network, the numbers and identities of each agent’s contacts will change over time. It is found that the dynamic interaction tends to suppress epidemic spreading in terms of larger epidemic threshold, smaller prevalence (the fraction of infected individuals) and smaller velocity of epidemic outbreak. Furthermore, the dynamic interaction results in the prevalence to undergo a phase transition at a finite threshold of the epidemic spread rate in the thermodynamic limit, which is in contradiction to the absence of an epidemic threshold in static SF networks. Some of these findings obtained from heterogeneous mean-field theory are in good agreement with numerical simulations. (paper)

Hub nodes inhibit the outbreak of epidemic under voluntary vaccination

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang Haifeng; Wang Binghong [Department of Modern Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China)], E-mail: bhwang@ustc.edu.cn; Zhang Jie; Small, Michael [Department of Electronic and Information Engineering, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong (China)], E-mail: ensmall@polyu.edu.hk; Zhou Changsong [Department of Physics, Centre for Nonlinear Studies, and Beijing-Hong Kong-Singapore Joint Centre for Nonlinear and Complex Systems (Hong Kong), Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong (China)

2010-02-15

It is commonly believed that epidemic spreading on scale-free networks is difficult to control and that the disease can spread even with a low infection rate, lacking an epidemic threshold. In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on complex networks under the framework of game theory, in which a voluntary vaccination strategy is incorporated. In particular, individuals face the 'dilemma' of vaccination: they have to decide whether or not to vaccinate according to the trade-off between the risk and the side effects or cost of vaccination. Remarkably and quite excitingly, we find that disease outbreak can be more effectively inhibited on scale-free networks than on random networks. This is because the hub nodes of scale-free networks are more inclined to take self-vaccination after balancing the pros and cons. This result is encouraging as it indicates that real-world networks, which are often claimed to be scale free, can be favorably and easily controlled under voluntary vaccination. Our work provides a way of understanding how to prevent the outbreak of diseases under voluntary vaccination, and is expected to provide valuable information on effective disease control and appropriate decision-making.

Hub nodes inhibit the outbreak of epidemic under voluntary vaccination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Haifeng; Wang Binghong; Zhang Jie; Small, Michael; Zhou Changsong

2010-01-01

It is commonly believed that epidemic spreading on scale-free networks is difficult to control and that the disease can spread even with a low infection rate, lacking an epidemic threshold. In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on complex networks under the framework of game theory, in which a voluntary vaccination strategy is incorporated. In particular, individuals face the 'dilemma' of vaccination: they have to decide whether or not to vaccinate according to the trade-off between the risk and the side effects or cost of vaccination. Remarkably and quite excitingly, we find that disease outbreak can be more effectively inhibited on scale-free networks than on random networks. This is because the hub nodes of scale-free networks are more inclined to take self-vaccination after balancing the pros and cons. This result is encouraging as it indicates that real-world networks, which are often claimed to be scale free, can be favorably and easily controlled under voluntary vaccination. Our work provides a way of understanding how to prevent the outbreak of diseases under voluntary vaccination, and is expected to provide valuable information on effective disease control and appropriate decision-making.

CK2 activity is modulated by growth rate in Saccharomyces cerevisiae

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tripodi, Farida; Cirulli, Claudia; Reghellin, Veronica; Marin, Oriano; Brambilla, Luca; Schiappelli, Maria Patrizia; Porro, Danilo; Vanoni, Marco; Alberghina, Lilia; Coccetti, Paola

2010-01-01

Research highlights: → CK2 subunits are nuclear both in glucose and in ethanol growing yeast cells. → CK2 activity is modulated in S. cerevisiae. → CK2 activity is higher in conditions supporting higher growth rates. → V max is higher in faster growing cells, while K m is not affected. -- Abstract: CK2 is a highly conserved protein kinase controlling different cellular processes. It shows a higher activity in proliferating mammalian cells, in various types of cancer cell lines and tumors. The findings presented herein provide the first evidence of an in vivo modulation of CK2 activity, dependent on growth rate, in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. In fact, CK2 activity, assayed on nuclear extracts, is shown to increase in exponential growing batch cultures at faster growth rate, while localization of catalytic and regulatory subunits is not nutritionally modulated. Differences in intracellular CK2 activity of glucose- and ethanol-grown cells appear to depend on both increase in molecule number and k cat . Also in chemostat cultures nuclear CK2 activity is higher in faster growing cells providing the first unequivocal demonstration that growth rate itself can affect CK2 activity in a eukaryotic organism.

Tax Rates, Tax Evasion, and Growth in a Multi-period Economy

OpenAIRE

Jordi Caballé; Judith Panadés

2007-01-01

We extend the basic tax evasion model to a multi-period economy exhibiting sustained growth. When individuals conceal part of their true income from the tax authority, they face the risk of being audited and hence of paying the corresponding fine. Both taxes and fines determine individual saving and the rate of capital accumulation. We show that, if the penalty imposed on tax evaders is proportional to the amount of evaded taxes, then the growth rate is decreasing in the tax rate. However, th...

Mechanistic movement models to understand epidemic spread.

Science.gov (United States)

Fofana, Abdou Moutalab; Hurford, Amy

2017-05-05

An overlooked aspect of disease ecology is considering how and why animals come into contact with one and other resulting in disease transmission. Mathematical models of disease spread frequently assume mass-action transmission, justified by stating that susceptible and infectious hosts mix readily, and foregoing any detailed description of host movement. Numerous recent studies have recorded, analysed and modelled animal movement. These movement models describe how animals move with respect to resources, conspecifics and previous movement directions and have been used to understand the conditions for the occurrence and the spread of infectious diseases when hosts perform a type of movement. Here, we summarize the effect of the different types of movement on the threshold conditions for disease spread. We identify gaps in the literature and suggest several promising directions for future research. The mechanistic inclusion of movement in epidemic models may be beneficial for the following two reasons. Firstly, the estimation of the transmission coefficient in an epidemic model is possible because animal movement data can be used to estimate the rate of contacts between conspecifics. Secondly, unsuccessful transmission events, where a susceptible host contacts an infectious host but does not become infected can be quantified. Following an outbreak, this enables disease ecologists to identify 'near misses' and to explore possible alternative epidemic outcomes given shifts in ecological or immunological parameters.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'. © 2017 The Author(s).

[Growth rate and bone maturation in celiac disease (author's transl)].

Science.gov (United States)

Martínez Sopena, M J; Calvo Romero, M C; Bedate Calderón, P; Alonso Franch, M; Sánchez Villares, E

1978-05-01

The growth and bone maturation of 43 celiac patients were analyzed. A significant correlation between gluten intake and growth rate was found. The authors suggest this is a good parameter to advise the best moment to make the control biopsie and the provocation test.

Prevention of the Teenage Pregnancy Epidemic: A Social Learning Theory Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Hagenhoff, Carol; And Others

1987-01-01

The review provides a social learning model for explaining adolescent sexual behavior and use/nonuse of contraceptives. The model explains behavior patterns responsible for epidemic rates of teenage pregnancies, suggests research that will result in prevention of teenage pregnancies, and incorporates a range of social/cultural factors. (DB)

Disease spreading with epidemic alert on small-world networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Han, Xiao-Pu

2007-01-01

Base on two-dimension small-world networks, a susceptible-infected model with epidemic alert is proposed in this Letter. In this model, if some parts of the network are alarmed as dangerous, a fraction of edges between the alarmed parts and others will be removed, and two cases of alerting rules that the degree and frequency of contacts kept unchanged are considered respectively. The numerical simulations show that the spreading velocity is reduced by the accurate and timely epidemic alert, and the more accurate and timely, the stronger the deceleration effect. This model indicates that to broadcast epidemic alert timely is helpful and necessary in the control of epidemic spreading, and in agreement with the general view of epidemic alert. This work is helpful to understand the effects of epidemic alert on disease spreading

Stability analysis of nonlinear integro-differential equations arising in age-dependent epidemic models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El Doma, M.

1995-05-01

An age-structured epidemic model of an SI type that incorporate vertical transmission is investigated when the fertility and mortality rates depend on age. We determine the steady states and examine their stabilities. (author). 13 refs

Growth, exchange rates and trade in Brazil: a structuralist post-Keynesian approach

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Nelson H. Barbosa Filho

2004-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a structuralist post-Keynesian analysis of trade adjustment in Brazil. Based on the concept of the balance-of-payments (BoP constraint on growth, the paper investigates the relationship between income growth and real-exchange-rate devaluation necessary to adjust trade to a foreign-exchange constraint. The main result is that, with price-inelastic and income-elastic imports and based on its trade structure in 2002, Brazil may have to compensate an additional 1% of income growth with approximately 7% of real-exchange-rate devaluation in order to keep its trade balance stable in relation to GDP in the near future. Moreover, the trade parameters of Brazil seem to be unfavorable to growth with stable trade, that is, even moderate rates of GDP expansion lead to a substantial increase of imports and, therefore, require an also substantial devaluation of the real exchange rate to avoid a deterioration of the trade balance.

Growth, exchange rates and trade in Brazil: a structuralist post Keynesian approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nelson H. Barbosa Filho

2009-06-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a structuralist post-Keynesian analysis of trade adjustment in Brazil. Based on the concept of the balance-of-payments (BoP constraint on growth, the paper investigates the relationship between income growth and real-exchange-rate devaluation necessary to adjust trade to a foreign-exchange constraint. The main result is that, with price-inelastic and income-elastic imports and based on its trade structure in 2002, Brazil may have to compensate an additional 1% of income growth with approximately 7% of real-exchange-rate devaluation in order to keep its trade balance stable in relation to GDP in the near future. Moreover, the trade parameters of Brazil seem to be unfavorable to growth with stable trade, that is, even moderate rates of GDP expansion lead to a substantial increase of imports and, therefore, require an also substantial devaluation of the real exchange rate to avoid a deterioration of the trade balance.

Rabies and canine distemper virus epidemics in the red fox population of northern Italy (2006-2010).

Science.gov (United States)

Nouvellet, Pierre; Donnelly, Christl A; De Nardi, Marco; Rhodes, Chris J; De Benedictis, Paola; Citterio, Carlo; Obber, Federica; Lorenzetto, Monica; Pozza, Manuela Dalla; Cauchemez, Simon; Cattoli, Giovanni

2013-01-01

Since 2006 the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) population in north-eastern Italy has experienced an epidemic of canine distemper virus (CDV). Additionally, in 2008, after a thirteen-year absence from Italy, fox rabies was re-introduced in the Udine province at the national border with Slovenia. Disease intervention strategies are being developed and implemented to control rabies in this area and minimise risk to human health. Here we present empirical data and the epidemiological picture relating to these epidemics in the period 2006-2010. Of important significance for epidemiological studies of wild animals, basic mathematical models are developed to exploit information collected from the surveillance program on dead and/or living animals in order to assess the incidence of infection. These models are also used to estimate the rate of transmission of both diseases and the rate of vaccination, while correcting for a bias in early collection of CDV samples. We found that the rate of rabies transmission was roughly twice that of CDV, with an estimated effective contact between infected and susceptible fox leading to a new infection occurring once every 3 days for rabies, and once a week for CDV. We also inferred that during the early stage of the CDV epidemic, a bias in the monitoring protocol resulted in a positive sample being almost 10 times more likely to be collected than a negative sample. We estimated the rate of intake of oral vaccine at 0.006 per day, allowing us to estimate that roughly 68% of the foxes would be immunised. This was confirmed by field observations. Finally we discuss the implications for the eco-epidemiological dynamics of both epidemics in relation to control measures.

Ten Putative Contributors to the Obesity Epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

McAllister, Emily J.; Dhurandhar, Nikhil V.; Keith, Scott W.; Aronne, Louis J.; Barger, Jamie; Baskin, Monica; Benca, Ruth M.; Biggio, Joseph; Boggiano, Mary M.; Eisenmann, Joe C.; Elobeid, Mai; Fontaine, Kevin R.; Gluckman, Peter; Hanlon, Erin C.; Katzmarzyk, Peter; Pietrobelli, Angelo; Redden, David T.; Ruden, Douglas M.; Wang, Chenxi; Waterland, Robert A.; Wright, Suzanne M.; Allison, David B.

2010-01-01

The obesity epidemic is a global issue and shows no signs of abating, while the cause of this epidemic remains unclear. Marketing practices of energy-dense foods and institutionally-driven declines in physical activity are the alleged perpetrators for the epidemic, despite a lack of solid evidence to demonstrate their causal role. While both may contribute to obesity, we call attention to their unquestioned dominance in program funding and public efforts to reduce obesity, and propose several alternative putative contributors that would benefit from equal consideration and attention. Evidence for microorganisms, epigenetics, increasing maternal age, greater fecundity among people with higher adiposity, assortative mating, sleep debt, endocrine disruptors, pharmaceutical iatrogenesis, reduction in variability of ambient temperatures, and intrauterine and intergenerational effects, as contributing factors to the obesity epidemic are reviewed herein. While the evidence is strong for some contributors such as pharmaceutical-induced weight gain, it is still emerging for other reviewed factors. Considering the role of such putative etiological factors of obesity may lead to comprehensive, cause specific, and effective strategies for prevention and treatment of this global epidemic. PMID:19960394

Epidemics on adaptive networks with geometric constraints

Science.gov (United States)

Shaw, Leah; Schwartz, Ira

2008-03-01

When a population is faced with an epidemic outbreak, individuals may modify their social behavior to avoid exposure to the disease. Recent work has considered models in which the contact network is rewired dynamically so that susceptibles avoid contact with infectives. We consider extensions in which the rewiring is subject to constraints that preserve key properties of the social network structure. Constraining to a fixed degree distribution destroys previously observed bistable behavior. The most effective rewiring strategy is found to depend on the spreading rate.

A Minimalistic Resource Allocation Model to Explain Ubiquitous Increase in Protein Expression with Growth Rate.

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Uri Barenholz

Full Text Available Most proteins show changes in level across growth conditions. Many of these changes seem to be coordinated with the specific growth rate rather than the growth environment or the protein function. Although cellular growth rates, gene expression levels and gene regulation have been at the center of biological research for decades, there are only a few models giving a base line prediction of the dependence of the proteome fraction occupied by a gene with the specific growth rate. We present a simple model that predicts a widely coordinated increase in the fraction of many proteins out of the proteome, proportionally with the growth rate. The model reveals how passive redistribution of resources, due to active regulation of only a few proteins, can have proteome wide effects that are quantitatively predictable. Our model provides a potential explanation for why and how such a coordinated response of a large fraction of the proteome to the specific growth rate arises under different environmental conditions. The simplicity of our model can also be useful by serving as a baseline null hypothesis in the search for active regulation. We exemplify the usage of the model by analyzing the relationship between growth rate and proteome composition for the model microorganism E.coli as reflected in recent proteomics data sets spanning various growth conditions. We find that the fraction out of the proteome of a large number of proteins, and from different cellular processes, increases proportionally with the growth rate. Notably, ribosomal proteins, which have been previously reported to increase in fraction with growth rate, are only a small part of this group of proteins. We suggest that, although the fractions of many proteins change with the growth rate, such changes may be partially driven by a global effect, not necessarily requiring specific cellular control mechanisms.

The spatial resolution of epidemic peaks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Harriet L Mills

2014-04-01

Full Text Available The emergence of novel respiratory pathogens can challenge the capacity of key health care resources, such as intensive care units, that are constrained to serve only specific geographical populations. An ability to predict the magnitude and timing of peak incidence at the scale of a single large population would help to accurately assess the value of interventions designed to reduce that peak. However, current disease-dynamic theory does not provide a clear understanding of the relationship between: epidemic trajectories at the scale of interest (e.g. city; population mobility; and higher resolution spatial effects (e.g. transmission within small neighbourhoods. Here, we used a spatially-explicit stochastic meta-population model of arbitrary spatial resolution to determine the effect of resolution on model-derived epidemic trajectories. We simulated an influenza-like pathogen spreading across theoretical and actual population densities and varied our assumptions about mobility using Latin-Hypercube sampling. Even though, by design, cumulative attack rates were the same for all resolutions and mobilities, peak incidences were different. Clear thresholds existed for all tested populations, such that models with resolutions lower than the threshold substantially overestimated population-wide peak incidence. The effect of resolution was most important in populations which were of lower density and lower mobility. With the expectation of accurate spatial incidence datasets in the near future, our objective was to provide a framework for how to use these data correctly in a spatial meta-population model. Our results suggest that there is a fundamental spatial resolution for any pathogen-population pair. If underlying interactions between pathogens and spatially heterogeneous populations are represented at this resolution or higher, accurate predictions of peak incidence for city-scale epidemics are feasible.

Pyriproxyfen and the microcephaly epidemic in Brazil - an ecological approach to explore the hypothesis of their association

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Maria de Fatima P Militão de Albuquerque

Full Text Available The microcephaly epidemic in Brazil generated intense debate regarding its causality, and one hypothesised cause of this epidemic, now recognised as congenital Zika virus syndrome, was the treatment of drinking water tanks with pyriproxyfen to control Aedes aegypti larvae. We present the results of a geographical analysis of the association between the prevalence of microcephaly confirmed by Fenton growth charts and the type of larvicide used in the municipalities that were home to the mothers of the affected newborns in the metropolitan region of Recife in Pernambuco, the state in Brazil where the epidemic was first detected. The overall prevalence of microcephaly was 82 per 10,000 live births in the three municipalities that used the larvicide Bti (Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis instead of pyriproxyfen, and 69 per 10,000 live births in the eleven municipalities that used pyriproxyfen. The difference was not statistically significant. Our results show that the prevalence of microcephaly was not higher in the areas in which pyriproxyfen was used. In this ecological approach, there was no evidence of a correlation between the use of pyriproxyfen in the municipalities and the microcephaly epidemic.

Evaluation of Mycelium Growth Rate and Yield of White Button Mushroom Isolates (Agaricus bisporus in Iran

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Mohammad Javad Ahmadi Lahijani

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Among edible mushrooms, white button mushroom is the most cultivated one around the world. Mono-spores diversity in terms of growth rate, colony type, yield and etc. is used for intra strain genetic improvement. High yielding isolates with filamentous mycelium type are screened and used for spawn production (Farsi and Gordan, 2002. Success in mushroom production largely depends on the quality of spawn produced in sterile conditions (Sanchez, 2010. Farsi and Gordan, (2004 reported that colony shape and mycelium growth type are very important factors in screening isolates in terms of mycelium growth rate and yield. To screen isolates based on their mycelium growth, solid media are among the most suitable ones (Griffin, 1994. In a study conducted to evaluate mycelium growth rate of six Morchella species on different media, PDA and MEA were known as the best ones (Kalmis and Kalyoncu, 2008. The present study was conducted in order to evaluate mycelium growth rate and yield of white button mushroom isolates in solid medium, spawn and compost media. Materials and methods: Eighteen isolates of white button mushroom were compared on PDA (Potato Dextrose Agar, CYM (Complete Yeast Medium, spawn and compost media based on mycelium growth rate, type and class growth and yield at the mushroom research center of Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, in 2014. A piece of mycelium of each isolate was placed in the center of each petri dish and was kept in 23±1°C, and the radial growth rate of mycelium was measured as two perpendicular diameters in three consecutive weeks. Mycelium growth rate on spawn and compost media was measured based on the percentage of surface coverage during the 15 consecutive days. Yield of each isolate was measured by daily harvesting of mushrooms during 35 days of experiment. Analysis of variance and means comparison of the variables were carried out using SAS software. Means analysis was performed

The HIV/AIDS epidemic in Cuba: description and tentative explanation of its low HIV prevalence

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Clémençon Stéphan

2007-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The Cuban HIV/AIDS epidemic has the lowest prevalence rate of the Caribbean region. The objective of this paper is to give an overview of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Cuba and to explore the reasons for this low prevalence. Methods Data were obtained from the Cuban HIV/AIDS programme established in 1983. This programme has an extensive adult HIV testing policy, including testing of all pregnant women. HIV and AIDS cases have been recorded since 1986. Persons found to be HIV-positive are interviewed on their sexual behaviour and partners. Tracing and voluntary testing of these partners are organised. Epidemiological description of this epidemic was obtained from analysis of this data set. Using elementary mathematical analyses, we estimated the coverage of the detection system (percentage of HIV-positive adults detected and the average period between HIV infection and detection. Estimated HIV prevalence rates were corrected to account for the coverage. Results HIV prevalence has increased since 1996. In 2005, the prevalence among pregnant women was 1.2 per 10,000 (16/137000. Estimated HIV prevalence among 15- to 49-year-olds was 8.1 per 10,000 (4913/6065000; 95%CI: 7.9 per 10,000 – 8.3 per 10,000. Most (77% of the HIV-positive adults were men, most (85.1% of the detected HIV-positive men were reported as having sex with men (MSM, and most of the HIV-positive women reported having had sex with MSM. The average period between HIV infection and detection was estimated to be 2.1 years (IQR = 1.7 – 2.2 years. We estimated that, for the year 2005, 79.6% (IQR: 77.3 – 81.4% of the HIV-positive persons were detected. Conclusion MSM drive the HIV epidemic in Cuba. The extensive HIV testing policy may be an important factor in explaining the low HIV prevalence. To reduce the HIV epidemic in Cuba, the epidemic among MSM should be addressed. To understand this epidemic further, data on sexual behaviour should be collected. Now that

Last Five Years Pakistan Economic Growth Rate GDP And Its Comparison With China India And Bangladesh

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Abdul Rehman

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract This paper formulates and reviews Pakistans last five years economic growth rate and its comparison with the growth rate of China India and Bangladesh. As growth rate the amount of increment of a specific variable has gained within a specific period of time and context. In fact economic growth rate provides general direction and magnitude of growth for overall economy.

Capital accumulation, structural change and real exchange rate in a Keynesian-Structuralist growth model

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Oreiro José Luis

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to show at theoretical level that maintaining a competitive real exchange rate positively affects the economic growth of developing countries by means of a Keynesian-Structuralist model that combines elements of Kaleckian growth models with the balance of payments constrained growth models pioneered developed by Thirlwall. In this setting, the level of real exchange rate is capable, due to its effect over capital accumulation, to induce a structural change in the economy, making endogenous income elasticities of exports and imports. For reasonable parameter values it is shown that in steady-state growth there is two long-run equilibrium values for real exchange rate, one that corresponds to an under-valued currency and another that corresponds to an over-valued currency. If monetary authorities run exchange rate policy in order to target a competitive level for real exchange rate, than under-valued equilibrium is stable and the economy will show a high growth rate in the long-run.

Variation in relative growth rate and growth traits in wild and cultivated Capsicum accessions grown under different temperatures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Swart, de E.A.M.; Marcelis, L.F.M.; Voorrips, R.E.

2006-01-01

Differences in environmental conditions are known to influence plant growth and growth-related traits. The aim of this study was to identify the variation in relative growth rate (RGR), and its underlying physiological and morphological traits, in a group of ten wild and cultivated Capsicum

Epidemic spreading in a hierarchical social network.

Science.gov (United States)

Grabowski, A; Kosiński, R A

2004-09-01

A model of epidemic spreading in a population with a hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions is described and investigated numerically. The structure of interpersonal connections is based on a scale-free network. Spatial localization of individuals belonging to different social groups, and the mobility of a contemporary community, as well as the effectiveness of different interpersonal interactions, are taken into account. Typical relations characterizing the spreading process, like a range of epidemic and epidemic curves, are discussed. The influence of preventive vaccinations on the spreading process is investigated. The critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals that is sufficient for the suppression of an epidemic is calculated. Our results are compared with solutions of the master equation for the spreading process and good agreement of the character of this process is found.

Rapid simulation of spatial epidemics: a spectral method.

Science.gov (United States)

Brand, Samuel P C; Tildesley, Michael J; Keeling, Matthew J

2015-04-07

Spatial structure and hence the spatial position of host populations plays a vital role in the spread of infection. In the majority of situations, it is only possible to predict the spatial spread of infection using simulation models, which can be computationally demanding especially for large population sizes. Here we develop an approximation method that vastly reduces this computational burden. We assume that the transmission rates between individuals or sub-populations are determined by a spatial transmission kernel. This kernel is assumed to be isotropic, such that the transmission rate is simply a function of the distance between susceptible and infectious individuals; as such this provides the ideal mechanism for modelling localised transmission in a spatial environment. We show that the spatial force of infection acting on all susceptibles can be represented as a spatial convolution between the transmission kernel and a spatially extended 'image' of the infection state. This representation allows the rapid calculation of stochastic rates of infection using fast-Fourier transform (FFT) routines, which greatly improves the computational efficiency of spatial simulations. We demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of this fast spectral rate recalculation (FSR) method with two examples: an idealised scenario simulating an SIR-type epidemic outbreak amongst N habitats distributed across a two-dimensional plane; the spread of infection between US cattle farms, illustrating that the FSR method makes continental-scale outbreak forecasting feasible with desktop processing power. The latter model demonstrates which areas of the US are at consistently high risk for cattle-infections, although predictions of epidemic size are highly dependent on assumptions about the tail of the transmission kernel. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ebola Virus Epidemic in West Africa: Global Health Economic Challenges, Lessons Learned, and Policy Recommendations.

Science.gov (United States)

Elmahdawy, Mahmoud; Elsisi, Gihan H; Carapinha, Joao; Lamorde, Mohamed; Habib, Abdulrazaq; Agyie-Baffour, Peter; Soualmi, Redouane; Ragab, Samah; Udezi, Anthony W; Usifoh, Cyril; Usifoh, Stella

2017-09-01

The Ebola virus has spread across several Western Africa countries, adding a significant financial burden to their health systems and economies. In this article the experience with Ebola is reviewed, and economic challenges and policy recommendations are discussed to help curb the impact of other diseases in the future. The West African Ebola virus disease epidemic started in resource-constrained settings and caused thousands of fatalities during the last epidemic. Nevertheless, given population mobility, international travel, and an increasingly globalized economy, it has the potential to re-occur and evolve into a global pandemic. Struggling health systems in West African countries hinder the ability to reduce the causes and effects of the Ebola epidemic. The lessons learned include the need for strengthening health systems, mainly primary care systems, expedited access to treatments and vaccines to treat the Ebola virus disease, guidance on safety, efficacy, and regulatory standards for such treatments, and ensuring that research and development efforts are directed toward existing needs. Other lessons include adopting policies that allow for better flow of relief, averting the adverse impact of strong quarantine policy that includes exaggerating the aversion behavior by alarming trade and business partners providing financial support to strengthen growth in the affected fragile economies by the Ebola outbreak. Curbing the impact of future Ebola epidemics, or comparable diseases, requires increased long-term investments in health system strengthening, better collaboration between different international organizations, more funding for research and development efforts aimed at developing vaccines and treatments, and tools to detect, treat, and prevent future epidemics. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Effects of time, temperature, and storage container on the growth of Fusarium species: implications for the worldwide Fusarium keratitis epidemic of 2004-2006.

Science.gov (United States)

Bullock, John D; Elder, B Laurel; Khamis, Harry J; Warwar, Ronald E

2011-02-01

To demonstrate the effects of time, temperature, and container properties on the ability of ReNu with MoistureLoc (ReNuML; contains the antimicrobial agent alexidine) to inhibit growth of Fusarium species. ReNu with MoistureLoc was stored in its Bausch & Lomb (Rochester, New York) plastic or similarly sized glass containers for 1 and 4 weeks at room temperature, 42°C, and 56°C, and then tested for its ability to inhibit growth of 7 Fusarium isolates. ReNu with MoistureLoc stored in glass containers for 1 or 4 weeks at all 3 temperatures demonstrated no significant fungistatic deterioration. However, ReNuML stored at 56°C in its Bausch & Lomb plastic container demonstrated a statistically significant fungistatic deterioration compared with room temperature storage in its original plastic container or with glass container storage at any temperature. When exposed to elevated storage temperature, it appears that an interaction between ReNuML and its Bausch & Lomb plastic container adversely affects the fungistatic properties of ReNuML, which could have contributed to the Fusarium keratitis epidemic of 2004 through 2006.

Coral growth rates revisited after 31 years: what is causing lower extension rates in Acropora palmata?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bak, R.P.M.; Nieuwland, G.; Meesters, H.W.G.

2009-01-01

Linear extension of branches in the same Acropora palmata (Lamarck, 1816) population in Curaçao was measured, employing exactly the same methods, in 1971-1973 and in 2002-2004, and the resulting coral growth rates are compared. Linear growth shows the same pattern over seasons in both periods with

Optimal tax rate and economic growth. Evidence from Nigeria and South Africa

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Olufemi Muibi SAIBU

2015-05-01

Full Text Available The recent economic crisis had made developing countries to look inward for financial resources to finance development. The readily alternative is the tax revenues however, the possible adverse direct and indirect effects of tax on productivity and work efforts as well as on aggregate consumption had make some African countries (especially Nigeria and South Africa reluctant in implementing far reaching tax policy reform. This paper examines optimal tax burden and real output growth Nigeria and South Africa, two of the top four economies in Africa. The paper empirically determined what should be the optimal tax rate for Nigeria and South Africa-the two leading economies in Africa. The paper found that nonlinearity hypothesis in the effects of tax in the case of South Africa is rejected while a significant nonlinear relationship is found in the case of Nigeria. The results suggest that the growth-maximizing tax rate is about 15% of per capita GDP for South Africa and 30% for Nigeria. At that tax rate, the economic growth rate would be around 6% and 8% instead of the actual mean growth rate of 2.84% and 4.51% for South Africa and Nigeria respectively. The paper concluded the current tax burden in the two countries may be sub-optimal and may hurt long term sustainable growth process in the two countries

Improved bounds on the epidemic threshold of exact SIS models on complex networks

KAUST Repository

Ruhi, Navid Azizan; Thrampoulidis, Christos; Hassibi, Babak

2017-01-01

The SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) epidemic model on an arbitrary network, without making approximations, is a 2n-state Markov chain with a unique absorbing state (the all-healthy state). This makes analysis of the SIS model and, in particular, determining the threshold of epidemic spread quite challenging. It has been shown that the exact marginal probabilities of infection can be upper bounded by an n-dimensional linear time-invariant system, a consequence of which is that the Markov chain is “fast-mixing” when the LTI system is stable, i.e. when equation (where β is the infection rate per link, δ is the recovery rate, and λmax(A) is the largest eigenvalue of the network's adjacency matrix). This well-known threshold has been recently shown not to be tight in several cases, such as in a star network. In this paper, we provide tighter upper bounds on the exact marginal probabilities of infection, by also taking pairwise infection probabilities into account. Based on this improved bound, we derive tighter eigenvalue conditions that guarantee fast mixing (i.e., logarithmic mixing time) of the chain. We demonstrate the improvement of the threshold condition by comparing the new bound with the known one on various networks with various epidemic parameters.

Improved bounds on the epidemic threshold of exact SIS models on complex networks

KAUST Repository

Ruhi, Navid Azizan

2017-01-05

The SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) epidemic model on an arbitrary network, without making approximations, is a 2n-state Markov chain with a unique absorbing state (the all-healthy state). This makes analysis of the SIS model and, in particular, determining the threshold of epidemic spread quite challenging. It has been shown that the exact marginal probabilities of infection can be upper bounded by an n-dimensional linear time-invariant system, a consequence of which is that the Markov chain is “fast-mixing” when the LTI system is stable, i.e. when equation (where β is the infection rate per link, δ is the recovery rate, and λmax(A) is the largest eigenvalue of the network\\'s adjacency matrix). This well-known threshold has been recently shown not to be tight in several cases, such as in a star network. In this paper, we provide tighter upper bounds on the exact marginal probabilities of infection, by also taking pairwise infection probabilities into account. Based on this improved bound, we derive tighter eigenvalue conditions that guarantee fast mixing (i.e., logarithmic mixing time) of the chain. We demonstrate the improvement of the threshold condition by comparing the new bound with the known one on various networks with various epidemic parameters.

The evaluation system of city's smart growth success rates

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Yifan

2018-04-01

"Smart growth" is to pursue the best integrated perform+-ance of the Economically prosperous, socially Equitable, and Environmentally Sustainable(3E). Firstly, we establish the smart growth evaluation system(SGI) and the sustainable development evaluation system(SDI). Based on the ten principles and the definition of three E's of sustainability. B y using the Z-score method and the principal component analysis method, we evaluate and quantify indexes synthetically. Then we define the success of smart growth as the ratio of the SDI to the SGI composite score growth rate (SSG). After that we select two cities — Canberra and Durres as the objects of our model in view of the model. Based on the development plans and key data of these two cities, we can figure out the success of smart growth. And according to our model, we adjust some of the growth indicators for both cities. Then observe the results before and after adjustment, and finally verify the accuracy of the model.

How to Estimate Epidemic Risk from Incomplete Contact Diaries Data?

Science.gov (United States)

Mastrandrea, Rossana; Barrat, Alain

2016-06-01

Social interactions shape the patterns of spreading processes in a population. Techniques such as diaries or proximity sensors allow to collect data about encounters and to build networks of contacts between individuals. The contact networks obtained from these different techniques are however quantitatively different. Here, we first show how these discrepancies affect the prediction of the epidemic risk when these data are fed to numerical models of epidemic spread: low participation rate, under-reporting of contacts and overestimation of contact durations in contact diaries with respect to sensor data determine indeed important differences in the outcomes of the corresponding simulations with for instance an enhanced sensitivity to initial conditions. Most importantly, we investigate if and how information gathered from contact diaries can be used in such simulations in order to yield an accurate description of the epidemic risk, assuming that data from sensors represent the ground truth. The contact networks built from contact sensors and diaries present indeed several structural similarities: this suggests the possibility to construct, using only the contact diary network information, a surrogate contact network such that simulations using this surrogate network give the same estimation of the epidemic risk as simulations using the contact sensor network. We present and compare several methods to build such surrogate data, and show that it is indeed possible to obtain a good agreement between the outcomes of simulations using surrogate and sensor data, as long as the contact diary information is complemented by publicly available data describing the heterogeneity of the durations of human contacts.

A simple model for behaviour change in epidemics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brauer Fred

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background People change their behaviour during an epidemic. Infectious members of a population may reduce the number of contacts they make with other people because of the physical effects of their illness and possibly because of public health announcements asking them to do so in order to decrease the number of new infections, while susceptible members of the population may reduce the number of contacts they make in order to try to avoid becoming infected. Methods We consider a simple epidemic model in which susceptible and infectious members respond to a disease outbreak by reducing contacts by different fractions and analyze the effect of such contact reductions on the size of the epidemic. We assume constant fractional reductions, without attempting to consider the way in which susceptible members might respond to information about the epidemic. Results We are able to derive upper and lower bounds for the final size of an epidemic, both for simple and staged progression models. Conclusions The responses of uninfected and infected individuals in a disease outbreak are different, and this difference affects estimates of epidemic size.

Growth-rate regulated genes have profound impact on interpretation of transcriptome profiling in Saccharomyces cerevisiae

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Regenberg, Birgitte; Grotkjær, Thomas; Winther, Ole

2006-01-01

Growth rate is central to the development of cells in all organisms. However, little is known about the impact of changing growth rates. We used continuous cultures to control growth rate and studied the transcriptional program of the model eukaryote Saccharomyces cerevisiae, with generation time...

Growth Rates and Mechanisms of Magmatic Orbicule Formation: Insights from Calcium Isotopes

Science.gov (United States)

Antonelli, M. A.; Watkins, J. M.; DePaolo, D. J.

2017-12-01

Orbicular diorites and granites are rare plutonic rock textures that remain enigmatic despite a century of study. Orbicules consist of a rounded core (xenolith, xenocryst, or autolith) surrounded by a variable number of concentric rings defined by different modal mineralogies and textures. Recent work suggests that the alternating layers of mineral growth are a consequence of either changes in external conditions of the magma (e.g. temperature, magma composition due to mixing, changes in volatile abundances), or rapid growth of one mineral phase (e.g plagioclase) creating a depleted boundary layer that then promotes precipitation of an alternative mineral phase (e.g. pyroxene). This process can be repeated to produce multiple layers. The rates at which orbicules grow is also of interest and relates to the mechanisms. Studies of orbicular diorites from the northern Sierra Nevada suggest exceptionally high growth rates (McCarthy et al., 2016). Ca isotopes can offer a unique perspective on orbicule formation, as diffusive isotope fractionation should be substantial when growth rates are high, and they are also sensitive to the nature of the growth medium (silicate liquid or supercritical fluid phase). We present δ44Ca measurements and chemistry for a transect of a dioritic orbicule collected from Emerald Lake, California (Sierra Nevada), where the growth layers are defined by variations in plagioclase/pyroxene ratio, grain size, and texture. Ca concentration varies from 5-13 wt%, and d44Ca values oscillate between -0.5 to 0.0‰ relative to BSE, correlating with changes in mineralogy and texture. Zones of plagioclase comb texture are associated with negative δ44Ca excursions of -0.2 to -0.4‰, consistent with diffusive isotope fractionation during rapid mineral growth. Assuming a 10‰ difference in diffusivity for 44Ca vs. 40Ca in dioritic liquids (Watson et al., 2016), and using the models of Watson and Muller (2009) as a guide, these small fractionations

Different Epidemic Models on Complex Networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Haifeng; Small, Michael; Fu Xinchu

2009-01-01

Models for diseases spreading are not just limited to SIS or SIR. For instance, for the spreading of AIDS/HIV, the susceptible individuals can be classified into different cases according to their immunity, and similarly, the infected individuals can be sorted into different classes according to their infectivity. Moreover, some diseases may develop through several stages. Many authors have shown that the individuals' relation can be viewed as a complex network. So in this paper, in order to better explain the dynamical behavior of epidemics, we consider different epidemic models on complex networks, and obtain the epidemic threshold for each case. Finally, we present numerical simulations for each case to verify our results.

Concurrency-Induced Transitions in Epidemic Dynamics on Temporal Networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Onaga, Tomokatsu; Gleeson, James P; Masuda, Naoki

2017-09-08

Social contact networks underlying epidemic processes in humans and animals are highly dynamic. The spreading of infections on such temporal networks can differ dramatically from spreading on static networks. We theoretically investigate the effects of concurrency, the number of neighbors that a node has at a given time point, on the epidemic threshold in the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on temporal network models. We show that network dynamics can suppress epidemics (i.e., yield a higher epidemic threshold) when the node's concurrency is low, but can also enhance epidemics when the concurrency is high. We analytically determine different phases of this concurrency-induced transition, and confirm our results with numerical simulations.

Concurrency-Induced Transitions in Epidemic Dynamics on Temporal Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Onaga, Tomokatsu; Gleeson, James P.; Masuda, Naoki

2017-09-01

Social contact networks underlying epidemic processes in humans and animals are highly dynamic. The spreading of infections on such temporal networks can differ dramatically from spreading on static networks. We theoretically investigate the effects of concurrency, the number of neighbors that a node has at a given time point, on the epidemic threshold in the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on temporal network models. We show that network dynamics can suppress epidemics (i.e., yield a higher epidemic threshold) when the node's concurrency is low, but can also enhance epidemics when the concurrency is high. We analytically determine different phases of this concurrency-induced transition, and confirm our results with numerical simulations.

Growth rate distribution in the forming lateral root of arabidopsis.

Science.gov (United States)

Szymanowska-Pułka, Joanna; Lipowczan, Marcin

2014-10-01

Microscopic observations of lateral roots (LRs) in Arabidopsis thaliana reveal that the cross-sectional shape of the organ changes from its basal to its apical region. The founder cells for LRs are elongated along the parent root axis, and thus from the site of initiation the base of LRs resemble an ellipse. The circumference of the apical part of LRs is usually a circle. The objective of this study was to analyse the characteristics of changes in the growth field of LRs possessing various shapes in their basal regions. The LRs of the wild type (Col-0) and two transgenic arabidopsis lines were analysed. On the basis of measurements of the long and short diameters (DL and DS, respectively) of the ellipse-like figure representing the bases of particular LRs, their asymmetry ratios (DL/DS) were determined. Possible differences between accessions were analysed by applying statistical methods. No significant differences between accessions were detected. Comparisons were therefore made of the maximal, minimal and mean value of the ratio of all the LRs analysed. Taking into consideration the lack of circular symmetry of the basal part, rates of growth were determined at selected points on the surface of LRs by the application of the growth tensor method, a mathematical tool previously applied only to describe organs with rotational symmetry. Maps showing the distribution of growth rates were developed for surfaces of LRs of various asymmetry ratios. The maps of growth rates on the surfaces of LRs having various shapes of the basal part show differences in both the geometry and the manner of growth, thus indicating that the manner of growth of the LR primordium is correlated to its shape. This is the first report of a description of growth of an asymmetric plant organ using the growth tensor method. The mathematical modelling adopted in the study provides new insights into plant organ formation and shape. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on

Can influenza epidemics be prevented by voluntary vaccination?

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Raffaele Vardavas

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Previous modeling studies have identified the vaccination coverage level necessary for preventing influenza epidemics, but have not shown whether this critical coverage can be reached. Here we use computational modeling to determine, for the first time, whether the critical coverage for influenza can be achieved by voluntary vaccination. We construct a novel individual-level model of human cognition and behavior; individuals are characterized by two biological attributes (memory and adaptability that they use when making vaccination decisions. We couple this model with a population-level model of influenza that includes vaccination dynamics. The coupled models allow individual-level decisions to influence influenza epidemiology and, conversely, influenza epidemiology to influence individual-level decisions. By including the effects of adaptive decision-making within an epidemic model, we can reproduce two essential characteristics of influenza epidemiology: annual variation in epidemic severity and sporadic occurrence of severe epidemics. We suggest that individual-level adaptive decision-making may be an important (previously overlooked causal factor in driving influenza epidemiology. We find that severe epidemics cannot be prevented unless vaccination programs offer incentives. Frequency of severe epidemics could be reduced if programs provide, as an incentive to be vaccinated, several years of free vaccines to individuals who pay for one year of vaccination. Magnitude of epidemic amelioration will be determined by the number of years of free vaccination, an individuals' adaptability in decision-making, and their memory. This type of incentive program could control epidemics if individuals are very adaptable and have long-term memories. However, incentive-based programs that provide free vaccination for families could increase the frequency of severe epidemics. We conclude that incentive-based vaccination programs are necessary to control

Wavelength dependence of the linear growth rate of the Es layer instability

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R. B. Cosgrove

2007-06-01

Full Text Available It has recently been shown, by computation of the linear growth rate, that midlatitude sporadic-E (Es layers are subject to a large scale electrodynamic instability. This instability is a logical candidate to explain certain frontal structuring events, and polarization electric fields, which have been observed in Es layers by ionosondes, by coherent scatter radars, and by rockets. However, the original growth rate derivation assumed an infinitely thin Es layer, and therefore did not address the short wavelength cutoff. Also, the same derivation ignored the effects of F region loading, which is a significant wavelength dependent effect. Herein is given a generalized derivation that remedies both these short comings, and thereby allows a computation of the wavelength dependence of the linear growth rate, as well as computations of various threshold conditions. The wavelength dependence of the linear growth rate is compared with observed periodicities, and the role of the zeroth order meridional wind is explored. A three-dimensional paper model is used to explain the instability geometry, which has been defined formally in previous works.

Slow growth rates of Amazonian trees: Consequences for carbon cycling

Science.gov (United States)

Vieira, Simone; Trumbore, Susan; Camargo, Plinio B.; Selhorst, Diogo; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Higuchi, Niro; Martinelli, Luiz Antonio

2005-01-01

Quantifying age structure and tree growth rate of Amazonian forests is essential for understanding their role in the carbon cycle. Here, we use radiocarbon dating and direct measurement of diameter increment to document unexpectedly slow growth rates for trees from three locations spanning the Brazilian Amazon basin. Central Amazon trees, averaging only ≈1mm/year diameter increment, grow half as fast as those from areas with more seasonal rainfall to the east and west. Slow growth rates mean that trees can attain great ages; across our sites we estimate 17-50% of trees with diameter >10 cm have ages exceeding 300 years. Whereas a few emergent trees that make up a large portion of the biomass grow faster, small trees that are more abundant grow slowly and attain ages of hundreds of years. The mean age of carbon in living trees (60-110 years) is within the range of or slightly longer than the mean residence time calculated from C inventory divided by annual C allocation to wood growth (40-100 years). Faster C turnover is observed in stands with overall higher rates of diameter increment and a larger fraction of the biomass in large, fast-growing trees. As a consequence, forests can recover biomass relatively quickly after disturbance, whereas recovering species composition may take many centuries. Carbon cycle models that apply a single turnover time for carbon in forest biomass do not account for variations in life strategy and therefore may overestimate the carbon sequestration potential of Amazon forests. PMID:16339903

Epidemics: Lessons from the past and current patterns of response

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Paul

2008-09-01

Hippocrates gave the term 'epidemic' its medical meaning. From antiquity to modern times, the meaning of the word epidemic has continued to evolve. Over the centuries, researchers have reached an understanding of the varying aspects of epidemics and have tried to combat them. The role played by travel, trade, and human exchanges in the propagation of epidemic infectious diseases has been understood. In 1948, the World Health Organization was created and given the task of advancing ways of combating epidemics. An early warning system to combat epidemics has been implemented by the WHO. The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) is collaboration between existing institutions and networks that pool their human and technical resources to fight outbreaks. Avian influenza constitutes currently the most deadly epidemic threat, with fears that it could rapidly reach pandemic proportions and put several thousands of lives in jeopardy. Thanks to the WHO's support, most of the world's countries have mobilised and implemented an 'Action Plan for Pandemic Influenza'. As a result, most outbreaks of the H5N1 avian flu virus have so far been speedily contained. Cases of dengue virus introduction in countries possessing every circumstance required for its epidemic spread provide another example pertinent to the prevention of epidemics caused by vector-borne pathogens.

Using a Negative Binomial Regression Model for Early Warning at the Start of a Hand Foot Mouth Disease Epidemic in Dalian, Liaoning Province, China.

Science.gov (United States)

An, Qingyu; Wu, Jun; Fan, Xuesong; Pan, Liyang; Sun, Wei

2016-01-01

The hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a human syndrome caused by intestinal viruses like that coxsackie A virus 16, enterovirus 71 and easily developed into outbreak in kindergarten and school. Scientifically and accurately early detection of the start time of HFMD epidemic is a key principle in planning of control measures and minimizing the impact of HFMD. The objective of this study was to establish a reliable early detection model for start timing of hand foot mouth disease epidemic in Dalian and to evaluate the performance of model by analyzing the sensitivity in detectability. The negative binomial regression model was used to estimate the weekly baseline case number of HFMD and identified the optimal alerting threshold between tested difference threshold values during the epidemic and non-epidemic year. Circular distribution method was used to calculate the gold standard of start timing of HFMD epidemic. From 2009 to 2014, a total of 62022 HFMD cases were reported (36879 males and 25143 females) in Dalian, Liaoning Province, China, including 15 fatal cases. The median age of the patients was 3 years. The incidence rate of epidemic year ranged from 137.54 per 100,000 population to 231.44 per 100,000population, the incidence rate of non-epidemic year was lower than 112 per 100,000 population. The negative binomial regression model with AIC value 147.28 was finally selected to construct the baseline level. The threshold value was 100 for the epidemic year and 50 for the non- epidemic year had the highest sensitivity(100%) both in retrospective and prospective early warning and the detection time-consuming was 2 weeks before the actual starting of HFMD epidemic. The negative binomial regression model could early warning the start of a HFMD epidemic with good sensitivity and appropriate detection time in Dalian.

Stress corrosion crack growth rate in dissimilar metal welds

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fernandez, M. P.; Lapena, J.; Lancha, A. M.; Perosanz, F. J.; Navas, M.

2000-01-01

Dissimilar welds, used to join different sections in light water reactors, are potentially susceptible to stress corrosion cracking (SCC) in aqueous mediums characteristic of nuclear plants. However, the study of these The ma has been limited to evaluating the weld material susceptibility in these mediums. Little scarce data are available on crack growth rates due, fundamentally, to inadequate testing techniques. In order to address this lack of information the crack growth rate at the interface of ferritic SA 533 B-1 alloy and alloy I-82, in a dissimilar weld (SA533B-1/I-82/316L), was studied. Experiments were conducted in water at 288 degree centigrade, 8 ppm of O 2 and 1 μS/cm conductivity. (Author) 33 refs

Existence, uniqueness, monotonicity and asymptotic behaviour of travelling waves for epidemic models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hsu, Cheng-Hsiung; Yang, Tzi-Sheng

2013-01-01

The purpose of this work is to investigate the existence, uniqueness, monotonicity and asymptotic behaviour of travelling wave solutions for a general epidemic model arising from the spread of an epidemic by oral–faecal transmission. First, we apply Schauder's fixed point theorem combining with a supersolution and subsolution pair to derive the existence of positive monotone monostable travelling wave solutions. Then, applying the Ikehara's theorem, we determine the exponential rates of travelling wave solutions which converge to two different equilibria as the moving coordinate tends to positive infinity and negative infinity, respectively. Finally, using the sliding method, we prove the uniqueness result provided the travelling wave solutions satisfy some boundedness conditions. (paper)

Epidemic threshold in directed networks

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Cong; Wang, Huijuan; Van Mieghem, Piet

2013-12-01

Epidemics have so far been mostly studied in undirected networks. However, many real-world networks, such as the online social network Twitter and the world wide web, on which information, emotion, or malware spreads, are directed networks, composed of both unidirectional links and bidirectional links. We define the directionality ξ as the percentage of unidirectional links. The epidemic threshold τc for the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic is lower bounded by 1/λ1 in directed networks, where λ1, also called the spectral radius, is the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix. In this work, we propose two algorithms to generate directed networks with a given directionality ξ. The effect of ξ on the spectral radius λ1, principal eigenvector x1, spectral gap (λ1-λ2), and algebraic connectivity μN-1 is studied. Important findings are that the spectral radius λ1 decreases with the directionality ξ, whereas the spectral gap and the algebraic connectivity increase with the directionality ξ. The extent of the decrease of the spectral radius depends on both the degree distribution and the degree-degree correlation ρD. Hence, in directed networks, the epidemic threshold is larger and a random walk converges to its steady state faster than that in undirected networks with the same degree distribution.

Rabies and canine distemper virus epidemics in the red fox population of northern Italy (2006-2010.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pierre Nouvellet

Full Text Available Since 2006 the red fox (Vulpes vulpes population in north-eastern Italy has experienced an epidemic of canine distemper virus (CDV. Additionally, in 2008, after a thirteen-year absence from Italy, fox rabies was re-introduced in the Udine province at the national border with Slovenia. Disease intervention strategies are being developed and implemented to control rabies in this area and minimise risk to human health. Here we present empirical data and the epidemiological picture relating to these epidemics in the period 2006-2010. Of important significance for epidemiological studies of wild animals, basic mathematical models are developed to exploit information collected from the surveillance program on dead and/or living animals in order to assess the incidence of infection. These models are also used to estimate the rate of transmission of both diseases and the rate of vaccination, while correcting for a bias in early collection of CDV samples. We found that the rate of rabies transmission was roughly twice that of CDV, with an estimated effective contact between infected and susceptible fox leading to a new infection occurring once every 3 days for rabies, and once a week for CDV. We also inferred that during the early stage of the CDV epidemic, a bias in the monitoring protocol resulted in a positive sample being almost 10 times more likely to be collected than a negative sample. We estimated the rate of intake of oral vaccine at 0.006 per day, allowing us to estimate that roughly 68% of the foxes would be immunised. This was confirmed by field observations. Finally we discuss the implications for the eco-epidemiological dynamics of both epidemics in relation to control measures.

PROBLEM OF OPTIMAL CONTROL OF EPIDEMIC IN VIEW OF LATENT PERIOD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The problem of optimal control of epidemic through vaccination and isolation, taking into account latent period is considered. The target function is minimized - functionality summarizing costs on epidemic prevention and treatment and also considering expenses on infected people left at the end of control T who may be a new source of epidemic. On the left endpoint of the integration segment initial data is given - quantity of infected and confirmed people at the moment t, the right endpoint is free. The dynamic constraints are written by way of a system of simple differential equations describing the speed of changes of number of subjected to infection and number of already infected. Besides the inhomogeneous communi- ty is considered, consisting of four age groups (babies, preschool children, school children and adults. The speed of vaccina- tion (number of vaccinated per a time unit and isolation speed are used as the control functions. There are some restrictions on control above and below. The latent period is described by the constant h and is part of the equation describing the con- tamination speed of people as a retarding in argument t, i.e. a person being in a latent period infects others not being aware of his disease. For problem solving Pontryagin maximum principle is used where it can be seen that the control is piecewise constant. The result of numerical implementation of discrete problem of optimal control is given. The conclusions are made that the latent period significantly influence the incidence rate and as consequence the costs on epidemic suppression. The programme based on the programming language Delphi gives an opportunity to estimate the scale of epidemic at different initial data and restrictions on control as well as to find an optimal control minimizing costs on epimedic suppression.

Growth rate effects on the formation of dislocation loops around deep helium bubbles in Tungsten

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sandoval, Luis; Perez, Danny; Uberuaga, Blas P.; Voter, Arthur Ford

2016-01-01

Here, the growth process of spherical helium bubbles located 6 nm below a (100) surface is studied using molecular dynamics and parallel replica dynamics simulations, over growth rates from 10"6 to 10"1"2 helium atoms per second. Slower growth rates lead to a release of pressure and lower helium content as compared with fast growth cases. In addition, at slower growth rates, helium bubbles are not decorated by multiple dislocation loops, as these tend to merge or emit given sufficient time. At faster rates, dislocation loops nucleate faster than they can emit, leading to a more complicated dislocation structure around the bubble.

Growth rates of important East African montane forest trees, with ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

These trees showed growth rates at least twice as high as those of the primary species. Juniperus procera was found to be the fastest growing species in the cedar forest, underlining its success in forming dense stands after a fire. Only young Podocarpus latifolius showed a similar fast growth. Olea europaea ssp. cuspidata, ...

Can timely vector control interventions triggered by atypical environmental conditions prevent malaria epidemics? A case-study from Wajir County, Kenya.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter Maes

Full Text Available Atypical environmental conditions with drought followed by heavy rainfall and flooding in arid areas in sub-Saharan Africa can lead to explosive epidemics of malaria, which might be prevented through timely vector-control interventions.Wajir County in Northeast Kenya is classified as having seasonal malaria transmission. The aim of this study was to describe in Wajir town the environmental conditions, the scope and timing of vector-control interventions and the associated resulting burden of malaria at two time periods (1996-1998 and 2005-2007.This is a cross-sectional descriptive and ecological study using data collected for routine program monitoring and evaluation.In both time periods, there were atypical environmental conditions with drought and malnutrition followed by massive monthly rainfall resulting in flooding and animal/human Rift Valley Fever. In 1998, this was associated with a large and explosive malaria epidemic (weekly incidence rates peaking at 54/1,000 population/week with vector-control interventions starting over six months after the massive rainfall and when the malaria epidemic was abating. In 2007, vector-control interventions started sooner within about three months after the massive rainfall and no malaria epidemic was recorded with weekly malaria incidence rates never exceeding 0.5 per 1,000 population per week.Did timely vector-control interventions in Wajir town prevent a malaria epidemic? In 2007, the neighboring county of Garissa experienced similar climatic events as Wajir, but vector-control interventions started six months after the heavy un-seasonal rainfall and large scale flooding resulted in a malaria epidemic with monthly incidence rates peaking at 40/1,000 population. In conclusion, this study suggests that atypical environmental conditions can herald a malaria outbreak in certain settings. In turn, this should alert responsible stakeholders about the need to act rapidly and preemptively with appropriate

Susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemics on networks with general infection and cure times

Science.gov (United States)

Cator, E.; van de Bovenkamp, R.; Van Mieghem, P.

2013-06-01

The classical, continuous-time susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) Markov epidemic model on an arbitrary network is extended to incorporate infection and curing or recovery times each characterized by a general distribution (rather than an exponential distribution as in Markov processes). This extension, called the generalized SIS (GSIS) model, is believed to have a much larger applicability to real-world epidemics (such as information spread in online social networks, real diseases, malware spread in computer networks, etc.) that likely do not feature exponential times. While the exact governing equations for the GSIS model are difficult to deduce due to their non-Markovian nature, accurate mean-field equations are derived that resemble our previous N-intertwined mean-field approximation (NIMFA) and so allow us to transfer the whole analytic machinery of the NIMFA to the GSIS model. In particular, we establish the criterion to compute the epidemic threshold in the GSIS model. Moreover, we show that the average number of infection attempts during a recovery time is the more natural key parameter, instead of the effective infection rate in the classical, continuous-time SIS Markov model. The relative simplicity of our mean-field results enables us to treat more general types of SIS epidemics, while offering an easier key parameter to measure the average activity of those general viral agents.

Epidemic mitigation via awareness propagation in communication networks: the role of time scales

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Huijuan; Chen, Chuyi; Qu, Bo; Li, Daqing; Havlin, Shlomo

2017-07-01

The participation of individuals in multi-layer networks allows for feedback between network layers, opening new possibilities to mitigate epidemic spreading. For instance, the spread of a biological disease such as Ebola in a physical contact network may trigger the propagation of the information related to this disease in a communication network, e.g. an online social network. The information propagated in the communication network may increase the awareness of some individuals, resulting in them avoiding contact with their infected neighbors in the physical contact network, which might protect the population from the infection. In this work, we aim to understand how the time scale γ of the information propagation (speed that information is spread and forgotten) in the communication network relative to that of the epidemic spread (speed that an epidemic is spread and cured) in the physical contact network influences such mitigation using awareness information. We begin by proposing a model of the interaction between information propagation and epidemic spread, taking into account the relative time scale γ. We analytically derive the average fraction of infected nodes in the meta-stable state for this model (i) by developing an individual-based mean-field approximation (IBMFA) method and (ii) by extending the microscopic Markov chain approach (MMCA). We show that when the time scale γ of the information spread relative to the epidemic spread is large, our IBMFA approximation is better compared to MMCA near the epidemic threshold, whereas MMCA performs better when the prevalence of the epidemic is high. Furthermore, we find that an optimal mitigation exists that leads to a minimal fraction of infected nodes. The optimal mitigation is achieved at a non-trivial relative time scale γ, which depends on the rate at which an infected individual becomes aware. Contrary to our intuition, information spread too fast in the communication network could reduce the

Epidemic Network Failures in Optical Transport Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Katsikas, Dimitrios; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

2013-01-01

This paper presents a failure propagation model for transport networks which are affected by epidemic failures. The network is controlled using the GMPLS protocol suite. The Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model is investigated and new signaling functionality of GMPLS to support...

SCC crack growth rate of cold worked 316L stainless steel in PWR environment

Science.gov (United States)

Du, Donghai; Chen, Kai; Yu, Lun; lu, Hui; Zhang, Lefu; Shi, Xiuqiang; Xu, Xuelian

2015-01-01

Many component failures in nuclear power plants were found to be caused by stress corrosion cracking (SCC) of cold worked austenitic steels. Some of the pressure boundary component materials are even cold worked up to 35% plastic deformation, leaving high residual stress and inducing high growth rate of corrosion crack. Controlling water chemistry is one of the best counter measure to mitigate this problem. In this work, the effects of temperature (200 up to 325 °C) and dissolved oxygen (0 up to 2000 μg/L) on SCC crack growth rates of cold worked austenitic stainless steel type 316L have been tested by using direct current potential drop (DCPD) method. The results showed that temperature affected SCC crack growth rates more significantly in oxygenated water than in deaerated water. In argon deaerated water, the crack growth rate exhibited a peak at about 250 °C, which needs further verification. At 325 °C, the SCC crack growth rate increased rapidly with the increase of dissolved oxygen concentration within the range from 0 up to 200 μg/L, while when dissolved oxygen was above 200 μg/L, the crack growth rate followed a shallower dependence on dissolved oxygen concentration.

Stochastic analysis of a novel nonautonomous periodic SIRI epidemic system with random disturbances

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Weiwei; Meng, Xinzhu

2018-02-01

In this paper, a new stochastic nonautonomous SIRI epidemic model is formulated. Given that the incidence rates of diseases may change with the environment, we propose a novel type of transmission function. The main aim of this paper is to obtain the thresholds of the stochastic SIRI epidemic model. To this end, we investigate the dynamics of the stochastic system and establish the conditions for extinction and persistence in mean of the disease by constructing some suitable Lyapunov functions and using stochastic analysis technique. Furthermore, we show that the stochastic system has at least one nontrivial positive periodic solution. Finally, numerical simulations are introduced to illustrate our results.

Modeling Epidemics Spreading on Social Contact Networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zhaoyang; Wang, Honggang; Wang, Chonggang; Fang, Hua

2015-09-01

Social contact networks and the way people interact with each other are the key factors that impact on epidemics spreading. However, it is challenging to model the behavior of epidemics based on social contact networks due to their high dynamics. Traditional models such as susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model ignore the crowding or protection effect and thus has some unrealistic assumption. In this paper, we consider the crowding or protection effect and develop a novel model called improved SIR model. Then, we use both deterministic and stochastic models to characterize the dynamics of epidemics on social contact networks. The results from both simulations and real data set conclude that the epidemics are more likely to outbreak on social contact networks with higher average degree. We also present some potential immunization strategies, such as random set immunization, dominating set immunization, and high degree set immunization to further prove the conclusion.

Epidemic spreading in localized environments with recurrent mobility patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Granell, Clara; Mucha, Peter J.

2018-05-01

The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of its time in localized environments and has easily identifiable mobility patterns—such as workplaces, university campuses, or schools—it is of critical importance to identify the factors controlling the rate of disease spread. Here, we present a discrete-time, metapopulation-based model to describe the transmission of susceptible-infected-susceptible-like diseases that take place in confined scenarios where the mobilities of the individuals are not random but, rather, follow clear recurrent travel patterns. This model allows analytical determination of the onset of epidemics, as well as the ability to discern which contact structures are most suited to prevent the infection to spread. It thereby determines whether common prevention mechanisms, as isolation, are worth implementing in such a scenario and their expected impact.

Sex-based differences in Adelie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) chick growth rates.

Science.gov (United States)

Jennings, Scott; Varsani, Arvind; Dugger, Catherine; Ballard, Grant; Ainley, David G.

2016-01-01

Sexually size-dimorphic species must show some difference between the sexes in growth rate and/or length of growing period. Such differences in growth parameters can cause the sexes to be impacted by environmental variability in different ways, and understanding these differences allows a better understanding of patterns in productivity between individuals and populations. We investigated differences in growth rate and diet between male and female Adélie Penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) chicks during two breeding seasons at Cape Crozier, Ross Island, Antarctica. Adélie Penguins are a slightly dimorphic species, with adult males averaging larger than adult females in mass (~11%) as well as bill (~8%) and flipper length (~3%). We measured mass and length of flipper, bill, tibiotarsus, and foot at 5-day intervals for 45 male and 40 female individually-marked chicks. Chick sex was molecularly determined from feathers. We used linear mixed effects models to estimate daily growth rate as a function of chick sex, while controlling for hatching order, brood size, year, and potential variation in breeding quality between pairs of parents. Accounting for season and hatching order, male chicks gained mass an average of 15.6 g d-1 faster than females. Similarly, growth in bill length was faster for males, and the calculated bill size difference at fledging was similar to that observed in adults. There was no evidence for sex-based differences in growth of other morphological features. Adélie diet at Ross Island is composed almost entirely of two species—one krill (Euphausia crystallorophias) and one fish (Pleuragramma antarctica), with fish having a higher caloric value. Using isotopic analyses of feather samples, we also determined that male chicks were fed a higher proportion of fish than female chicks. The related differences in provisioning and growth rates of male and female offspring provides a greater understanding of the ways in which ecological factors may impact

Age, growth rate, and otolith growth of polar cod (Boreogadus saida in two fjords of Svalbard, Kongsfjorden and Rijpfjorden

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dariusz P. Fey

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This work presents biological information for polar cod (Boreogadus saida collected with a Campelen 1800 shrimp bottom trawl in Kongsfjorden (two stations located in the inner part of the fjord adjacent to the glacier and Rijpfjorden (one station at the entrance to the fjord in September and October 2013. The otolith-based ages of polar cod collected in Kongsfjorden (6.1–24 cm total length TL; n = 813 ranged from 0 to 4 years. The growth rate was relatively constant at approximately 4.7 cm year−1 between years 1 and 4, which indicates that growth was fast in the glacier area. The ages of polar cod collected in Rijpfjorden (8.6–15.9 cm TL; n = 64 ranged from 2 to 3 years. The fish from Rijpfjorden were smaller at age than those from Kongsfjorden, and their growth rate between years 2 and 3 (no other age classes were available was approximately 3.3 cm year−1. In both fjords, males and females were of the same size-at-age and the same weight-at-TL. The small sampling area means that the results on growth rate are not representative of the entire fjords. Instead, the results can be discussed as presenting the possible growth rates of some populations. A strong relationship was identified between otolith size (length and weight and fish size (TL and TW, with no differences between males and females or the fjords. A significant, strong relationship was also noted between fish and otolith growth rates.

Untangling the Interplay between Epidemic Spread and Transmission Network Dynamics.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christel Kamp

Full Text Available The epidemic spread of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and often has a considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in the spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and requires a detailed analysis of each epidemic with respect to its infectious agent and the corresponding routes of transmission. To facilitate this analysis, we introduce a mathematical framework which links epidemic patterns to the topology and dynamics of the underlying transmission network. The evolution, both in disease prevalence and transmission network topology, is derived from a closed set of partial differential equations for infections without allowing for recovery. The predictions are in excellent agreement with complementarily conducted agent-based simulations. The capacity of this new method is demonstrated in several case studies on HIV epidemics in synthetic populations: it allows us to monitor the evolution of contact behavior among healthy and infected individuals and the contributions of different disease stages to the spreading of the epidemic. This gives both direction to and a test bed for targeted intervention strategies for epidemic control. In conclusion, this mathematical framework provides a capable toolbox for the analysis of epidemics from first principles. This allows for fast, in silico modeling--and manipulation--of epidemics and is especially powerful if complemented with adequate empirical data for parameterization.

Abia State HIV epidemic and response: challenges and prospects.

Science.gov (United States)

Onyeonoro, Ugochukwu Uchenna; Emelumadu, Obiageli Fidelia; Nwamoh, Uche Ngozi; Ukegbu, Andrew Ugwunna; Okafor, Godwin Oc

2014-11-13

Since the first seroprevalence survey in 1999, the HIV prevalence in Abia State has increased from 1.8% to 7.3% in 2010. The state is currently experiencing a generalized epidemic, with most transmission occurring through heterosexual low-risk sex. Drivers of the epidemic include low knowledge of HIV prevention, low risk perception, predominantly male factor-driven risky sexual behavior, and low condom use. This study reviewed the state HIV epidemic trend in relation to response, sought to identify the gaps between the epidemic and response, and recommended measures to strengthen the state response.

Optimal Control of Interdependent Epidemics in Complex Networks

OpenAIRE

Chen, Juntao; Zhang, Rui; Zhu, Quanyan

2017-01-01

Optimal control of interdependent epidemics spreading over complex networks is a critical issue. We first establish a framework to capture the coupling between two epidemics, and then analyze the system's equilibrium states by categorizing them into three classes, and deriving their stability conditions. The designed control strategy globally optimizes the trade-off between the control cost and the severity of epidemics in the network. A gradient descent algorithm based on a fixed point itera...

Percolation and epidemics in random clustered networks

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Joel C.

2009-08-01

The social networks that infectious diseases spread along are typically clustered. Because of the close relation between percolation and epidemic spread, the behavior of percolation in such networks gives insight into infectious disease dynamics. A number of authors have studied percolation or epidemics in clustered networks, but the networks often contain preferential contacts in high degree nodes. We introduce a class of random clustered networks and a class of random unclustered networks with the same preferential mixing. Percolation in the clustered networks reduces the component sizes and increases the epidemic threshold compared to the unclustered networks.

Effect of diffusion from a lateral surface on the rate of GaN nanowire growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sibirev, N. V.; Tchernycheva, M.; Cirlin, G. E.; Patriarche, G.; Harmand, J. C.; Dubrovskii, V. G.

2012-01-01

The kinetics of the growth of GaN crystalline nanowires on a Si (111) surface with no catalyst is studied experimentally and theoretically. Noncatalytic GaN nanowires were grown by molecular-beam epitaxy with AlN inserts, which makes it possible to determine the rate of the vertical growth of nanowires. A model for the formation of GaN nanowires is developed, and an expression for their rate of growth is derived. It is shown that, in the general case, the dependence of the rate of growth on the nanowire diameter has a minimum. The diameter corresponding to the experimentally observed minimum of the rate of growth steadily increases with increasing diffusion flux from the lateral surface.

Toward a generalized theory of epidemic awareness in social networks

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Qingchu; Zhu, Wenfang

We discuss the dynamics of a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model with local awareness in networks. Individual awareness to the infectious disease is characterized by a general function of epidemic information in its neighborhood. We build a high-accuracy approximate equation governing the spreading dynamics and derive an approximate epidemic threshold above which the epidemic spreads over the whole network. Our results extend the previous work and show that the epidemic threshold is dependent on the awareness function in terms of one infectious neighbor. Interestingly, when a pow-law awareness function is chosen, the epidemic threshold can emerge in infinite networks.

Mechanisms promoting higher growth rate in arctic than in temperate shorebirds

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schekkerman, H.; Tulp, I.Y.M.; Piersma, T.; Visser, G.H.

2003-01-01

We compared prefledging growth, energy expenditure, and time budgets in the arctic-breeding red knot (Calidris canutus) to those in temperate shorebirds, to investigate how arctic chicks achieve a high growth rate despite energetic difficulties associated with precocial development in a cold

Mechanisms promoting higher growth rate in arctic than in temperate shorebirds

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schekkerman, H; Tulp, Ingrid; Piersma, T.; Visser, G.H.

We compared prefledging growth, energy expenditure, and time budgets in the arctic-breeding red knot (Calidris canutus) to those in temperate shorebirds, to investigate how arctic chicks achieve a high growth rate despite energetic difficulties associated with precocial development in a cold

Suppressing traffic-driven epidemic spreading by adaptive routing strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Han-Xin; Wang, Zhen

2016-01-01

The design of routing strategies for traffic-driven epidemic spreading has received increasing attention in recent years. In this paper, we propose an adaptive routing strategy that incorporates topological distance with local epidemic information through a tunable parameter h. In the case where the traffic is free of congestion, there exists an optimal value of routing parameter h, leading to the maximal epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be more effectively controlled by adaptive routing, compared to that of the static shortest path routing scheme. Besides, we find that the optimal value of h can greatly relieve the traffic congestion in the case of finite node-delivering capacity. We expect our work to provide new insights into the effects of dynamic routings on traffic-driven epidemic spreading.

A ‘post-honeymoon’ measles epidemic in Burundi: mathematical model-based analysis and implications for vaccination timing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katelyn C. Corey

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Using a mathematical model with realistic demography, we analyze a large outbreak of measles in Muyinga sector in rural Burundi in 1988–1989. We generate simulated epidemic curves and age × time epidemic surfaces, which we qualitatively and quantitatively compare with the data. Our findings suggest that supplementary immunization activities (SIAs should be used in places where routine vaccination cannot keep up with the increasing numbers of susceptible individuals resulting from population growth or from logistical problems such as cold chain maintenance. We use the model to characterize the relationship between SIA frequency and SIA age range necessary to suppress measles outbreaks. If SIAs are less frequent, they must expand their target age range.

Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic

Science.gov (United States)

Bjorndal, Karen A.; Bolten, Alan B.; Chaloupka, Milani; Saba, Vincent S.; Bellini, Cláudio; Marcovaldi, Maria A.G.; Santos, Armando J.B.; Bortolon, Luis Felipe Wurdig; Meylan, Anne B.; Meylan, Peter A.; Gray, Jennifer; Hardy, Robert; Brost, Beth; Bresette, Michael; Gorham, Jonathan C.; Connett, Stephen; Crouchley, Barbara Van Sciver; Dawson, Mike; Hayes, Deborah; Diez, Carlos E.; van Dam, Robert P.; Willis, Sue; Nava, Mabel; Hart, Kristen M.; Cherkiss, Michael S.; Crowder, Andrew; Pollock, Clayton; Hillis-Starr, Zandy; Muñoz Tenería, Fernando A.; Herrera-Pavón, Roberto; Labrada-Martagón, Vanessa; Lorences, Armando; Negrete-Philippe, Ana; Lamont, Margaret M.; Foley, Allen M.; Bailey, Rhonda; Carthy, Raymond R.; Scarpino, Russell; McMichael, Erin; Provancha, Jane A.; Brooks, Annabelle; Jardim, Adriana; López-Mendilaharsu, Milagros; González-Paredes, Daniel; Estrades, Andrés; Fallabrino, Alejandro; Martínez-Souza, Gustavo; Vélez-Rubio, Gabriela M.; Boulon, Ralf H.; Collazo, Jaime; Wershoven, Robert; Hernández, Vicente Guzmán; Stringell, Thomas B.; Sanghera, Amdeep; Richardson, Peter B.; Broderick, Annette C.; Phillips, Quinton; Calosso, Marta C.; Claydon, John A.B.; Metz, Tasha L.; Gordon, Amanda L.; Landry, Andre M.; Shaver, Donna J.; Blumenthal, Janice; Collyer, Lucy; Godley, Brendan J.; McGowan, Andrew; Witt, Matthew J.; Campbell, Cathi L.; Lagueux, Cynthia J.; Bethel, Thomas L.; Kenyon, Lory

2017-01-01

Somatic growth is an integrated, individual-based response to environmental conditions, especially in ectotherms. Growth dynamics of large, mobile animals are particularly useful as bio-indicators of environmental change at regional scales. We assembled growth rate data from throughout the West Atlantic for green turtles, Chelonia mydas, which are long-lived, highly migratory, primarily herbivorous mega-consumers that may migrate over hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Our dataset, the largest ever compiled for sea turtles, has 9690 growth increments from 30 sites from Bermuda to Uruguay from 1973 to 2015. Using generalized additive mixed models, we evaluated covariates that could affect growth rates; body size, diet, and year have significant effects on growth. Growth increases in early years until 1999, then declines by 26% to 2015. The temporal (year) effect is of particular interest because two carnivorous species of sea turtles – hawksbills, Eretmochelys imbricata, and loggerheads, Caretta caretta – exhibited similar significant declines in growth rates starting in 1997 in the West Atlantic, based on previous studies. These synchronous declines in productivity among three sea turtle species across a trophic spectrum provide strong evidence that an ecological regime shift (ERS) in the Atlantic is driving growth dynamics. The ERS resulted from a synergy of the 1997/1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – the strongest on record – combined with an unprecedented warming rate over the last two to three decades. Further support is provided by the strong correlations between annualized mean growth rates of green turtles and both sea surface temperatures (SST) in the West Atlantic for years of declining growth rates (r = -0.94) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for all years (r = 0.74). Granger-causality analysis also supports the latter finding. We discuss multiple stressors that could reinforce and prolong the effect of the ERS. This study

Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic.

Science.gov (United States)

Bjorndal, Karen A; Bolten, Alan B; Chaloupka, Milani; Saba, Vincent S; Bellini, Cláudio; Marcovaldi, Maria A G; Santos, Armando J B; Bortolon, Luis Felipe Wurdig; Meylan, Anne B; Meylan, Peter A; Gray, Jennifer; Hardy, Robert; Brost, Beth; Bresette, Michael; Gorham, Jonathan C; Connett, Stephen; Crouchley, Barbara Van Sciver; Dawson, Mike; Hayes, Deborah; Diez, Carlos E; van Dam, Robert P; Willis, Sue; Nava, Mabel; Hart, Kristen M; Cherkiss, Michael S; Crowder, Andrew G; Pollock, Clayton; Hillis-Starr, Zandy; Muñoz Tenería, Fernando A; Herrera-Pavón, Roberto; Labrada-Martagón, Vanessa; Lorences, Armando; Negrete-Philippe, Ana; Lamont, Margaret M; Foley, Allen M; Bailey, Rhonda; Carthy, Raymond R; Scarpino, Russell; McMichael, Erin; Provancha, Jane A; Brooks, Annabelle; Jardim, Adriana; López-Mendilaharsu, Milagros; González-Paredes, Daniel; Estrades, Andrés; Fallabrino, Alejandro; Martínez-Souza, Gustavo; Vélez-Rubio, Gabriela M; Boulon, Ralf H; Collazo, Jaime A; Wershoven, Robert; Guzmán Hernández, Vicente; Stringell, Thomas B; Sanghera, Amdeep; Richardson, Peter B; Broderick, Annette C; Phillips, Quinton; Calosso, Marta; Claydon, John A B; Metz, Tasha L; Gordon, Amanda L; Landry, Andre M; Shaver, Donna J; Blumenthal, Janice; Collyer, Lucy; Godley, Brendan J; McGowan, Andrew; Witt, Matthew J; Campbell, Cathi L; Lagueux, Cynthia J; Bethel, Thomas L; Kenyon, Lory

2017-11-01

Somatic growth is an integrated, individual-based response to environmental conditions, especially in ectotherms. Growth dynamics of large, mobile animals are particularly useful as bio-indicators of environmental change at regional scales. We assembled growth rate data from throughout the West Atlantic for green turtles, Chelonia mydas, which are long-lived, highly migratory, primarily herbivorous mega-consumers that may migrate over hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Our dataset, the largest ever compiled for sea turtles, has 9690 growth increments from 30 sites from Bermuda to Uruguay from 1973 to 2015. Using generalized additive mixed models, we evaluated covariates that could affect growth rates; body size, diet, and year have significant effects on growth. Growth increases in early years until 1999, then declines by 26% to 2015. The temporal (year) effect is of particular interest because two carnivorous species of sea turtles-hawksbills, Eretmochelys imbricata, and loggerheads, Caretta caretta-exhibited similar significant declines in growth rates starting in 1997 in the West Atlantic, based on previous studies. These synchronous declines in productivity among three sea turtle species across a trophic spectrum provide strong evidence that an ecological regime shift (ERS) in the Atlantic is driving growth dynamics. The ERS resulted from a synergy of the 1997/1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-the strongest on record-combined with an unprecedented warming rate over the last two to three decades. Further support is provided by the strong correlations between annualized mean growth rates of green turtles and both sea surface temperatures (SST) in the West Atlantic for years of declining growth rates (r = -.94) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for all years (r = .74). Granger-causality analysis also supports the latter finding. We discuss multiple stressors that could reinforce and prolong the effect of the ERS. This study demonstrates the

Linear Stability of Binary Alloy Solidification for Unsteady Growth Rates

Science.gov (United States)

Mazuruk, K.; Volz, M. P.

2010-01-01

An extension of the Mullins and Sekerka (MS) linear stability analysis to the unsteady growth rate case is considered for dilute binary alloys. In particular, the stability of the planar interface during the initial solidification transient is studied in detail numerically. The rapid solidification case, when the system is traversing through the unstable region defined by the MS criterion, has also been treated. It has been observed that the onset of instability is quite accurately defined by the "quasi-stationary MS criterion", when the growth rate and other process parameters are taken as constants at a particular time of the growth process. A singular behavior of the governing equations for the perturbed quantities at the constitutional supercooling demarcation line has been observed. However, when the solidification process, during its transient, crosses this demarcation line, a planar interface is stable according to the linear analysis performed.

Causality Relationship Between Import, Export and Growth Rate in Developing Countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Serhat YUKSEL

2017-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we tried to determine the relationship between imports, exports and growth rate in developing countries. Within this scope, 6 developing countries (Argentina, Brazil, China, Malaysia, Mexico and Turkey were analyzed in this study. In order to achieve this purpose, annual data for the periods between 1961 and 2014 was tested by using Engle Granger co-integration analysis, Vector Error Correction Model and Toda Yamamoto causality analysis. According to the result of the analysis, it was determined that there is not any relationship among three variables in Brazil and Mexico. On the other hand, we defined that increase in export causes higher growth rate in Argentina. Moreover, it was concluded that there is a causal relationship from import to export in China and Turkey. Furthermore, it was determined that export causes higher import in Malaysia. Therefore, it can be concluded that the relationship between import, export and growth rate is not same for all developing countries..

Population growth, interest rate, and housing tax in the transitional China

Science.gov (United States)

He, Ling-Yun; Wen, Xing-Chun

2017-03-01

This paper combines and develops the models in Lastrapes (2002) and Mankiw and Weil (1989), which enables us to analyze the effects of interest rate and population growth shocks on housing price in one integrated framework. Based on this model, we carry out policy simulations to examine whether the housing (stock or flow) tax reduces the housing price fluctuations caused by interest rate or population growth shocks. Simulation results imply that the choice of housing tax tools depends on the kind of shock that housing market faces. In the situation where the housing price volatility is caused by the population growth shock, the flow tax can reduce the volatility of housing price while the stock tax makes no difference to it. If the shock is resulting from the interest rate, the policy maker should not impose any kind of the housing taxes. Furthermore, the effect of one kind of the housing tax can be strengthened by that of the other type of housing tax.

Trichinellosis epidemics in AP Vojvodina in the period 2000-2009

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Šeguljev Zorica

2011-01-01

Full Text Available In the observed decade, 1300 cases of trichinellosis were registered in Vojvodina, including three with a lethal outcome. The lethality was 0.23%. The incidences of trichinellosis ranged from 2.2/100,000 to 13.6/100,000. The rate of incidence depends both on the number of epidemics and the size of the epidemic reported in a year. Most incidences were reported in 2002 and 2005, as a consequence of the spread of trichinellosis through the purchase of infested food. The epidemic of trichinellosis in the Middle Banat district that started at the end of 2001 is considered to be the largest outbreak of human trichinellosis in Vojvodina, when 313 people got sick. In most of the cases the affected people reported they had eaten smoked sausages. The high incidence of trichinellosis in 2005 was a consequence of three thrichinellosis outbreaks that had been spreading through infested smoked sausages originating from illegal production and trade. More than 200 cases of trichinellosis were reported in Vojvodina. Today, Srem is still considered a hyperendemic area, because more than 30% of all the epidemics occur in this area. The available data indicate that trichinellosis is spread all over Vojvodina and that the absence of control results in the risk from the incidence of human trichinellosis. In many European countries the epidemiological situation is stable, but in our country trichinellosis is the most important zoonotic disease. This unstable epidemiological situation is the consequence of the widespread infection, culinary customs, and the fact that there is inadequate control of meat and meat products in households and illegal trade.

Modeling the environmental growth of Pseudogymnoascus destructans and its impact on the white-nose syndrome epidemic.

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Reynolds, Hannah T; Ingersoll, Tom; Barton, Hazel A

2015-04-01

White-nose syndrome (WNS) has had a devastating effect on North American bat populations. The causal agent of WNS is the fungal pathogen, Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd), which has been shown to persist in caves after the eradication of host populations. As nonpathogenic Pseudogymnoascus spp. display saprophytic growth and are among the most commonly isolated fungi from caves, we examined whether Pd could grow in cave sediments and the contribution such growth could have to WNS disease progression. We inoculated a range of diverse cave sediments and demonstrated the growth of Pd in all sediments tested. These data indicate that environmental growth of Pd could lead to the accumulation of spores above the estimated infection threshold for WNS, allowing environment-to-bat infection. The obtained growth parameters were then used in a susceptible-infected-susceptible mathematic model to determine the possible contribution of environmental Pd growth to WNS disease progression in a colony of little brown bats (Myotis lucifugus). This model suggests that the environmental growth of Pd would increase WNS infection rates, particularly in colonies experiencing longer hibernation periods or in hibernacula with high levels of organic detritus. The model also suggests that once introduced, environmental Pd growth would allow the persistence of this pathogen within infected hibernacula for decades, greatly compromising the success of bat reintroduction strategies. Together these data suggest that Pd is not reliant on its host for survival and is capable of environmental growth and amplification that could contribute to the rapid progression and long-term persistence of WNS in the hibernacula of threatened North American bats.

Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

OpenAIRE

Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

2001-01-01

We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below which the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are pron...

Regeneration and growth rates of allofragments in four common stream plants

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Riis, Tenna; Madsen, Tom Vindbæk; Sennels, R. S. H.

2009-01-01

perfoliatus L. and Ranunculus baudotii x pseudofluitans. The objectives of this study were to determine (1) if shoots with an apical tip have higher regeneration (growth of new shoots and rhizomes from allofragments) and colonisation (root attachment in sediment) abilities and higher relative growth rates...

Fishing for lobsters indirectly increases epidemics in sea urchins

Science.gov (United States)

Lafferty, Kevin D.

2004-01-01

Two ecological paradigms, the trophic cascade and the host-density threshold in disease, interact in the kelp-forest ecosystem to structure the community. To investigate what happens when a trophic cascade pushes a host population over a host-threshold density, I analyzed a 20-year data set of kelp forest communities at 16 sites in the region of the Channel Islands National Park, California, USA. Historically, lobsters, and perhaps other predators, kept urchin populations at low levels and kelp forests developed a community-level trophic cascade. In geographic areas where the main predators on urchins were fished, urchin populations increased to the extent that they overgrazed algae and starvation eventually limited urchin-population growth. Despite the limitation of urchin population size by food availability, urchin densities, at times, well exceeded the host-density threshold for epidemics. An urchin-specific bacterial disease entered the region after 1992 and acted as a density-dependent mortality source. Dense populations were more likely to experience epidemics and suffer higher mortality. Disease did not reduce the urchin population at a site to the density that predators previously did. Therefore, disease did not fully replace predators in the trophic cascade. These results indicate how fishing top predators can indirectly favor disease transmission in prey populations.

Growth rates of rhizosphere microorganisms depend on competitive abilities of plants for nitrogen

Science.gov (United States)

Blagodatskaya, Evgenia; Littschwager, Johanna; Lauerer, Marianna; Kuzyakov, Yakov

2010-05-01

Rhizosphere - one of the most important ‘hot spots' in soil - is characterized not only by accelerated turnover of microbial biomass and nutrients but also by strong intra- and inter-specific competition. Intra-specific competition occurs between individual plants of the same species, while inter-specific competition can occur both at population level (plant species-specific, microbial species-specific interactions) and at community level (plant - microbial interactions). Such plant - microbial interactions are mainly governed by competition for available N sources, since N is one of the main growth limiting nutrients in natural ecosystems. Functional structure and activity of microbial community in rhizosphere is not uniform and is dependent on quantity and quality of root exudates which are plant specific. It is still unclear how microbial growth and turnover in the rhizosphere are dependent on the features and competitive abilities of plants for N. Depending on C and N availability, acceleration and even retardation of microbial activity and carbon mineralization can be expected in the rhizosphere of plants with high competitive abilities for N. We hypothesized slower microbial growth rates in the rhizosphere of plants with smaller roots, as they usually produce less exudates compared to plants with small shoot-to-root ratio. As the first hypothesis is based solely on C availability, we also expected the greater effect of N availability on microbial growth in rhizosphere of plants with smaller root mass. These hypothesis were tested for two plant species of strawberry: Fragaria vesca L. (native species), and Duchesnea indica (Andrews) Focke (an invasive plant in central Europe) growing in intraspecific and interspecific competition. Microbial biomass and the kinetic parameters of microbial growth in the rhizosphere were estimated by dynamics of CO2 emission from the soil amended with glucose and nutrients. Specific growth rate (µ) of soil microorganisms was

Stemming the obesity epidemic : a tantalizing prospect

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Veerman, J Lennert; Barendregt, Jan J; van Beeck, Ed F; Seidell, Jacob C; Mackenbach, Johan P

OBJECTIVE: Obesity is a growing problem worldwide, but there are no good methods to assess the future course of the epidemic and the potential influence of interventions. We explore the behavior change needed to stop the obesity epidemic in the U.S. RESEARCH METHODS AND PROCEDURES: We modeled the

Influence of temperature on growth rate and lag phase of fungi isolated from Argentine corn.

Science.gov (United States)

González, H H; Resnik, S L; Vaamonde, G

1988-03-01

The influence of temperature on the growth of nine strains of fungi belonging to the genera Eurotium, Aspergillus, Penicillium and Fusarium has been investigated for the temperature range 15-35 degrees C. The lag phase and the growth rate were evaluated by using a laboratory medium. The maximum growth rate for E. repens, A. wentii and P. chrysogenum was observed at about 25 degrees C, for P. citrinum near 30 degrees C and for F. semitectum and F. moniliforme between 20 and 25 degrees C. The growth rate of A. niger, A. flavus and A. parasiticus increased with increasing temperatures in the range studied. For all strains studied it appeared that the higher the growth rate the lower the lag phase was.

Market penetration rates of new energy technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lund, Peter

2006-01-01

The market penetration rates of 11 different new energy technologies were studied covering energy production and end-use technologies. The penetration rates were determined by fitting observed market data to an epidemical diffusion model. The analyses show that the exponential penetration rates of new energy technologies may vary from 4 up to over 40%/yr. The corresponding take-over times from a 1% to 50% share of the estimated market potential may vary from less than 10 to 70 years. The lower rate is often associated with larger energy impacts. Short take-over times less than 25 years seem to be mainly associated with end-use technologies. Public policies and subsides have an important effect on the penetration. Some technologies penetrate fast without major support explained by technology maturity and competitive prices, e.g. compact fluorescent lamps show a 24.2%/yr growth rate globally. The penetration rates determined exhibit some uncertainty as penetration has not always proceeded close to saturation. The study indicates a decreasing penetration rate with increasing time or market share. If the market history is short, a temporally decreasing functional form for the penetration rate coefficient could be used to anticipate the probable behavior

Evaluating Subcriticality during the Ebola Epidemic in West Africa.

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Wayne T A Enanoria

Full Text Available The 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak is the largest and most widespread to date. In order to estimate ongoing transmission in the affected countries, we estimated the weekly average number of secondary cases caused by one individual infected with Ebola throughout the infectious period for each affected West African country using a stochastic hidden Markov model fitted to case data from the World Health Organization. If the average number of infections caused by one Ebola infection is less than 1.0, the epidemic is subcritical and cannot sustain itself. The epidemics in Liberia and Sierra Leone have approached subcriticality at some point during the epidemic; the epidemic in Guinea is ongoing with no evidence that it is subcritical. Response efforts to control the epidemic should continue in order to eliminate Ebola cases in West Africa.

Could the Recent Zika Epidemic Have Been Predicted?

Science.gov (United States)

Vecchi, G. A.; Munoz, A. G.; Thomson, M. C.; Stewart-Ibarra, A. M.; Chourio, X.; Nájera, P.; Moran, Z.; Yang, X.

2017-12-01

Given knowledge at the time, the recent 2015-2016 zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic probably could not have been predicted. Without the prior knowledge of ZIKV being already present in South America, and given the lack of understanding of key epidemiologic processes and long-term records of ZIKV cases in the continent, the best related prediction could be carried out for the potential risk of a generic Aedes-borne disease epidemic. Here we use a recently published two-vector basic reproduction number model to assess the predictability of the conditions conducive to epidemics of diseases like zika, chikungunya, or dengue, transmitted by the independent or concurrent presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We compare the potential risk of transmission forcing the model with the observed climate and with state-of-the-art operational forecasts from the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME), finding that the predictive skill of this new seasonal forecast system is highest for multiple countries in Latin America and the Caribbean during the December-February and March-May seasons, and slightly lower—but still of potential use to decision-makers—for the rest of the year. In particular, we find that above-normal suitable conditions for the occurrence of the zika epidemic at the beginning of 2015 could have been successfully predicted at least 1 month in advance for several zika hotspots, and in particular for Northeast Brazil: the heart of the epidemic. Nonetheless, the initiation and spread of an epidemic depends on the effect of multiple factors beyond climate conditions, and thus this type of approach must be considered as a guide and not as a formal predictive tool of vector-borne epidemics.

Addressing population heterogeneity and distribution in epidemics models using a cellular automata approach.

Science.gov (United States)

López, Leonardo; Burguerner, Germán; Giovanini, Leonardo

2014-04-12

The spread of an infectious disease is determined by biological and social factors. Models based on cellular automata are adequate to describe such natural systems consisting of a massive collection of simple interacting objects. They characterize the time evolution of the global system as the emergent behaviour resulting from the interaction of the objects, whose behaviour is defined through a set of simple rules that encode the individual behaviour and the transmission dynamic. An epidemic is characterized trough an individual-based-model built upon cellular automata. In the proposed model, each individual of the population is represented by a cell of the automata. This way of modeling an epidemic situation allows to individually define the characteristic of each individual, establish different scenarios and implement control strategies. A cellular automata model to study the time evolution of a heterogeneous populations through the various stages of disease was proposed, allowing the inclusion of individual heterogeneity, geographical characteristics and social factors that determine the dynamic of the desease. Different assumptions made to built the classical model were evaluated, leading to following results: i) for low contact rate (like in quarantine process or low density population areas) the number of infective individuals is lower than other areas where the contact rate is higher, and ii) for different initial spacial distributions of infected individuals different epidemic dynamics are obtained due to its influence on the transition rate and the reproductive ratio of disease. The contact rate and spatial distributions have a central role in the spread of a disease. For low density populations the spread is very low and the number of infected individuals is lower than in highly populated areas. The spacial distribution of the population and the disease focus as well as the geographical characteristic of the area play a central role in the dynamics of the

Temporo-spatial dynamics and behavioural patterns of 2012 cholera epidemic in the African mega-city of Conakry, Guinea.

Science.gov (United States)

Blake, Alexandre; Keita, Veronique Sarr; Sauvageot, Delphine; Saliou, Mamadou; Njanpop, Berthe Marie; Sory, Fode; Sudre, Bertrand; Lamine, Koivogui; Mengel, Martin; Gessner, Bradford D; Sakoba, Keita

2018-02-15

Cholera is endemic in Guinea, having suffered consecutive outbreaks from 2004 to 2008 followed by a lull until the 2012 epidemic. Here we describe the temporal-spatial and behavioural characteristics of cholera cases in Conakry during a three-year period, including the large-scale 2012 epidemic. We used the national and African Cholera Surveillance Network (Africhol) surveillance data collected from every cholera treatment centre in Conakry city from August 2011 to December 2013. The prevalence of suspect and confirmed cholera cases, the case fatality ratio (CFR), and the factors associated with suspected cholera were described according to three periods: pre-epidemic (A), epidemic 2012 (B) and post epidemic (C). Weekly attack rates and temporal-spatial clustering were calculated at municipality level for period B. Cholera was confirmed by culture at the cholera national reference laboratory. A total of 4559 suspect cases were reported: 66, 4437, and 66 suspect cases in periods A, B and C, respectively. Among the 204 suspect cases with culture results available, 6%, 60%, and 70% were confirmed in periods A, B, and C, respectively. With 0.3%, the CFR was significantly lower in period B than in periods A (7.6%) and C (7.1%). The overall attack rate was 0.28% in period B, ranging from 0.17% to 0.31% across municipalities. Concomitantly, a cluster of cases was identified in two districts in the northern part of Conakry. At 14%, rice water stools were less frequent in period A than in period B and C (78% and 84%). Dehydration (31% vs 94% and 89%) and coma (0.4% vs 3.1% and 2.9%) were lower during period B than in periods A and C. The treatment of drinking water was less frequent in period A, while there were more reports of recent travel in period C. The epidemic dynamic and the sociological description of suspect cases before, during, and after the large-scale epidemic revealed that the Vibrio cholerae was already present before the epidemic. However, it appeared that

Some models for epidemics of vector-transmitted diseases

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fred Brauer

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Vector-transmitted diseases such as dengue fever and chikungunya have been spreading rapidly in many parts of the world. The Zika virus has been known since 1947 and invaded South America in 2013. It can be transmitted not only by (mosquito vectors but also directly through sexual contact. Zika has developed into a serious global health problem because, while most cases are asymptomatic or very light, babies born to Zika - infected mothers may develop microcephaly and other very serious birth defects.We formulate and analyze two epidemic models for vector-transmitted diseases, one appropriate for dengue and chikungunya fever outbreaks and one that includes direct transmission appropriate for Zika virus outbreaks. This is especially important because the Zika virus is the first example of a disease that can be spread both indirectly through a vector and directly (through sexual contact. In both cases, we obtain expressions for the basic reproduction number and show how to use the initial exponential growth rate to estimate the basic reproduction number. However, for the model that includes direct transmission some additional data would be needed to identify the fraction of cases transmitted directly. Data for the 2015 Zika virus outbreak in Barranquilla, Colombia has been used to fit parameters to the model developed here and to estimate the basic reproduction number.

The effect of salinity on growth rate and osmolyte concentration of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Although at a slower rate, growth is maintained in seawater cultures supplemented with nutrients. Differences were found in carbohydrate content between cultures in different growth media. The highest carbohydrate content was observed in cultures growing in Zarrouk medium supplemented with 4 NaCl and in seawater ...

Comparison of cyanobacterial and green algal growth rates at different temperatures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lurling, M.; Faassen, E.J.; Kosten, S.; Eshetu, Z.; Huszar, V.M.

2013-01-01

1.The hypothesis that cyanobacteria have higher optimum growth temperatures and higher growth rates at the optimum as compared to chlorophytes was tested by running a controlled experiment with eight cyanobacteria species and eight chlorophyte species at six different temperatures (20-35°C) and by

Rabies and Canine Distemper Virus Epidemics in the Red Fox Population of Northern Italy (2006–2010)

Science.gov (United States)

De Benedictis, Paola; Citterio, Carlo; Obber, Federica; Lorenzetto, Monica; Pozza, Manuela Dalla; Cauchemez, Simon; Cattoli, Giovanni

2013-01-01

Since 2006 the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) population in north-eastern Italy has experienced an epidemic of canine distemper virus (CDV). Additionally, in 2008, after a thirteen-year absence from Italy, fox rabies was re-introduced in the Udine province at the national border with Slovenia. Disease intervention strategies are being developed and implemented to control rabies in this area and minimise risk to human health. Here we present empirical data and the epidemiological picture relating to these epidemics in the period 2006–2010. Of important significance for epidemiological studies of wild animals, basic mathematical models are developed to exploit information collected from the surveillance program on dead and/or living animals in order to assess the incidence of infection. These models are also used to estimate the rate of transmission of both diseases and the rate of vaccination, while correcting for a bias in early collection of CDV samples. We found that the rate of rabies transmission was roughly twice that of CDV, with an estimated effective contact between infected and susceptible fox leading to a new infection occurring once every 3 days for rabies, and once a week for CDV. We also inferred that during the early stage of the CDV epidemic, a bias in the monitoring protocol resulted in a positive sample being almost 10 times more likely to be collected than a negative sample. We estimated the rate of intake of oral vaccine at 0.006 per day, allowing us to estimate that roughly 68% of the foxes would be immunised. This was confirmed by field observations. Finally we discuss the implications for the eco-epidemiological dynamics of both epidemics in relation to control measures. PMID:23630599