WorldWideScience

Sample records for environmental model atlantic

  1. Modeling complex effects of multiple environmental stresses on carbon dynamics of Mid-Atlantic temperate forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yude Pan; Richard Birdsey; John Hom; Kevin McCullough

    2007-01-01

    We used our GIS variant of the PnET-CN model to investigate changes of forest carbon stocks and fluxes in Mid-Atlantic temperate forests over the last century (1900-2000). Forests in this region are affected by multiple environmental changes including climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, N deposition and tropospheric ozone, and extensive land disturbances. Our...

  2. An environmental model study of the deep layers of the North East Atlantic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bork, I.

    1989-01-01

    The field work of the north Atlantic monitoring Program (NOAMP) was supplemented by numerical simulations of the transport of radionuclides in the North Atlantic Ocean by annual mean flows and mixing processes. During the last year of NOAMP, a different attempt was made to compute the current field and three-dimensional trajectories of particles released in deep layers of the NOAMP area. It is the subject of this paper. The model used is of Bryan/Semtner type, but with smoothed topography and climatological (winter) temperature and salinity data. The results form a compromise between interpretation of climatological temperature and salinity data and the complete prediction of the current field by prognostic calculations, which yields a deep flow pattern that agrees with some ideas of the abyssal circulation

  3. Fuzzy modelling of Atlantic salmon physical habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    St-Hilaire, André; Mocq, Julien; Cunjak, Richard

    2015-04-01

    Fish habitat models typically attempt to quantify the amount of available river habitat for a given fish species for various flow and hydraulic conditions. To achieve this, information on the preferred range of values of key physical habitat variables (e.g. water level, velocity, substrate diameter) for the targeted fishs pecies need to be modelled. In this context, we developed several habitat suitability indices sets for three Atlantic salmon life stages (young-of-the-year (YOY), parr, spawning adults) with the help of fuzzy logic modeling. Using the knowledge of twenty-seven experts, from both sides of the Atlantic Ocean, we defined fuzzy sets of four variables (depth, substrate size, velocity and Habitat Suitability Index, or HSI) and associated fuzzy rules. When applied to the Romaine River (Canada), median curves of standardized Weighted Usable Area (WUA) were calculated and a confidence interval was obtained by bootstrap resampling. Despite the large range of WUA covered by the expert WUA curves, confidence intervals were relatively narrow: an average width of 0.095 (on a scale of 0 to 1) for spawning habitat, 0.155 for parr rearing habitat and 0.160 for YOY rearing habitat. When considering an environmental flow value corresponding to 90% of the maximum reached by WUA curve, results seem acceptable for the Romaine River. Generally, this proposed fuzzy logic method seems suitable to model habitat availability for the three life stages, while also providing an estimate of uncertainty in salmon preferences.

  4. Bayesian hierarchical modelling of North Atlantic windiness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanem, E.; Breivik, O. N.

    2013-03-01

    Extreme weather conditions represent serious natural hazards to ship operations and may be the direct cause or contributing factor to maritime accidents. Such severe environmental conditions can be taken into account in ship design and operational windows can be defined that limits hazardous operations to less extreme conditions. Nevertheless, possible changes in the statistics of extreme weather conditions, possibly due to anthropogenic climate change, represent an additional hazard to ship operations that is less straightforward to account for in a consistent way. Obviously, there are large uncertainties as to how future climate change will affect the extreme weather conditions at sea and there is a need for stochastic models that can describe the variability in both space and time at various scales of the environmental conditions. Previously, Bayesian hierarchical space-time models have been developed to describe the variability and complex dependence structures of significant wave height in space and time. These models were found to perform reasonably well and provided some interesting results, in particular, pertaining to long-term trends in the wave climate. In this paper, a similar framework is applied to oceanic windiness and the spatial and temporal variability of the 10-m wind speed over an area in the North Atlantic ocean is investigated. When the results from the model for North Atlantic windiness is compared to the results for significant wave height over the same area, it is interesting to observe that whereas an increasing trend in significant wave height was identified, no statistically significant long-term trend was estimated in windiness. This may indicate that the increase in significant wave height is not due to an increase in locally generated wind waves, but rather to increased swell. This observation is also consistent with studies that have suggested a poleward shift of the main storm tracks.

  5. Bayesian hierarchical modelling of North Atlantic windiness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Vanem

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Extreme weather conditions represent serious natural hazards to ship operations and may be the direct cause or contributing factor to maritime accidents. Such severe environmental conditions can be taken into account in ship design and operational windows can be defined that limits hazardous operations to less extreme conditions. Nevertheless, possible changes in the statistics of extreme weather conditions, possibly due to anthropogenic climate change, represent an additional hazard to ship operations that is less straightforward to account for in a consistent way. Obviously, there are large uncertainties as to how future climate change will affect the extreme weather conditions at sea and there is a need for stochastic models that can describe the variability in both space and time at various scales of the environmental conditions. Previously, Bayesian hierarchical space-time models have been developed to describe the variability and complex dependence structures of significant wave height in space and time. These models were found to perform reasonably well and provided some interesting results, in particular, pertaining to long-term trends in the wave climate. In this paper, a similar framework is applied to oceanic windiness and the spatial and temporal variability of the 10-m wind speed over an area in the North Atlantic ocean is investigated. When the results from the model for North Atlantic windiness is compared to the results for significant wave height over the same area, it is interesting to observe that whereas an increasing trend in significant wave height was identified, no statistically significant long-term trend was estimated in windiness. This may indicate that the increase in significant wave height is not due to an increase in locally generated wind waves, but rather to increased swell. This observation is also consistent with studies that have suggested a poleward shift of the main storm tracks.

  6. Environmental Factors and Natural Resource Stock: Atlantic Herring case

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, J.H. [Korea Maritime Institute, Seoul (Korea); John, M. Gate [University of Rhode Island, Kingston (United States)

    2001-12-01

    Atlantic herrings have held the important position as fish-baits in the marine ecosystem such as major baits in fishing lobsters. The Atlantic herring is sensitively influenced by the environmental factors of the marine ecosystem, such as the temperature of seawater, the amount of planktons, and the submarine deposit of the habitat. In the immature phase of herrings, especially, they are very sensitive of the low temperature of seawater. This study analyzes the correlation between two-year-old imported herring resources and the temperature of seawater, measured by a satellite. The area of measuring temperature is limited to the spawning ground of Atlantic herrings. As results of the analysis, the coefficient is 0.69, which means that the environmental factors should be very seriously considered in explaining the change of fishing resources. 12 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  7. Atlantic Environmental Resource Directory, 1989: A directory of non-profit environmental and development organizations in Atlantic Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cuthbertson, L.L.

    1989-01-01

    This directory lists 161 non-profit groups in the Atlantic region, along with contacts for the environmental networks across the country and in New England and appropriate federal and provincial offices in Atlantic Canada. The directory was compiled from questionnaires sent out to a list of contacts that were on an original mailing list of groups known to have taken stands on environmental issues in the past. Follow-up mailouts and phone calls were also made. As well, some contacts were discovered through word-of-mouth. Groups are listed alphabetically by province and are classified by subjects. Information includes address and phone number, contact, date formed, number of members, scope, language and objectives. Groups and resources are indexed by subject area and groups are listed by resources available, environmental networks, Eastern states-United States citizen groups, labour unions, federal and provincial government.

  8. Hydro-environmental factors and phytoplankton of the Atlantic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Hydro-environmental factors and phytoplankton of the Atlantic Ocean, off the Light House Beach, Lagos, Nigeria. ... (28.37±1.88), pH (7.85±0.17), conductivity (44738.75±6262.76 μS/cm), total dissolved solids (29236.71±4273.30 mg/L), salinity (27.11±3.91 ‰), alkalinity (126.99±42.81 mg/L) and chloride (15056.

  9. Challenges of achieving Good Environmental Status in the Northeast Atlantic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen A. Alexander

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The sustainable exploitation of marine ecosystem services is dependent on achieving and maintaining an adequate ecosystem state to prevent undue deterioration. Within the European Union, the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD requires member states to achieve Good Environmental Status (GEnS, specified in terms of 11 descriptors. We analyzed the complexity of social-ecological factors to identify common critical issues that are likely to influence the achievement of GEnS in the Northeast Atlantic (NEA more broadly, using three case studies. A conceptual model developed using a soft systems approach highlights the complexity of social and ecological phenomena that influence, and are likely to continue to influence, the state of ecosystems in the NEA. The development of the conceptual model raised four issues that complicate the implementation of the MSFD, the majority of which arose in the Pressures and State sections of the model: variability in the system, cumulative effects, ecosystem resilience, and conflicting policy targets. The achievement of GEnS targets for the marine environment requires the recognition and negotiation of trade-offs across a broad policy landscape involving a wide variety of stakeholders in the public and private sectors. Furthermore, potential cumulative effects may introduce uncertainty, particularly in selecting appropriate management measures. There also are endogenous pressures that society cannot control. This uncertainty is even more obvious when variability within the system, e.g., climate change, is accounted for. Also, questions related to the resilience of the affected ecosystem to specific pressures must be raised, despite a lack of current knowledge. Achieving good management and reaching GEnS require multidisciplinary assessments. The soft systems approach provides one mechanism for bringing multidisciplinary information together to look at the problems in a different light.

  10. The North Atlantic Ocean as habitat for Calanus finmarchicus: Environmental factors and life history traits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melle, Webjørn; Runge, Jeffrey; Head, Erica; Plourde, Stéphane; Castellani, Claudia; Licandro, Priscilla; Pierson, James; Jonasdottir, Sigrun; Johnson, Catherine; Broms, Cecilie; Debes, Høgni; Falkenhaug, Tone; Gaard, Eilif; Gislason, Astthor; Heath, Michael; Niehoff, Barbara; Nielsen, Torkel Gissel; Pepin, Pierre; Stenevik, Erling Kaare; Chust, Guillem

    2014-12-01

    Here we present a new, pan-Atlantic compilation and analysis of data on Calanus finmarchicus abundance, demography, dormancy, egg production and mortality in relation to basin-scale patterns of temperature, phytoplankton biomass, circulation and other environmental characteristics in the context of understanding factors determining the distribution and abundance of C. finmarchicus across its North Atlantic habitat. A number of themes emerge: (1) the south-to-north transport of plankton in the northeast Atlantic contrasts with north-to-south transport in the western North Atlantic, which has implications for understanding population responses of C. finmarchicus to climate forcing, (2) recruitment to the youngest copepodite stages occurs during or just after the phytoplankton bloom in the east whereas it occurs after the bloom at many western sites, with up to 3.5 months difference in recruitment timing, (3) the deep basin and gyre of the southern Norwegian Sea is the centre of production and overwintering of C. finmarchicus, upon which the surrounding waters depend, whereas, in the Labrador/Irminger Seas production mainly occurs along the margins, such that the deep basins serve as collection areas and refugia for the overwintering populations, rather than as centres of production, (4) the western North Atlantic marginal seas have an important role in sustaining high C. finmarchicus abundance on the nearby coastal shelves, (5) differences in mean temperature and chlorophyll concentration between the western and eastern North Atlantic are reflected in regional differences in female body size and egg production, (6) regional differences in functional responses of egg production rate may reflect genetic differences between western and eastern populations, (7) dormancy duration is generally shorter in the deep waters adjacent to the lower latitude western North Atlantic shelves than in the east, (8) there are differences in stage-specific daily mortality rates between

  11. Climatic and Environmental Changes Affecting Communities in Atlantic Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liette Vasseur

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Small rural coastal communities located in Atlantic Canada are vulnerable to the effects of climate and environmental changes. Major storms have impounded the coastline, causing much physical damage and affecting the socioeconomics of these communities that are composed of an aging population. The current study relays findings based on interviews completed in 2011–2012, following the 2010 winter storms in Atlantic Canada. It portrays the physical and social–ecological impacts affecting 10 coastal communities located in the provinces of Québec, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island. Semi-structured interviews held in these provinces are the basis for the contributions of this research. The findings reveal physical changes related to coastal erosion from high-wave impacts and storm surge causing flooding of the coastal zone. Also considered are strategies preferred and actually implemented by residents, such as building of protection walls, although undesirable. Due to funding constraints, however, many of these large-scale flood protection projects are not possible without governmental support. Instead, it is suggested that development be controlled and some respondents in this study upheld that relocation be used to alleviate the situation. Finally, more work is required to improve emergency planning. Better concerted short- and long-term responses need to be coordinated by local authorities and higher up in the government in order to ensure the sustainability of these coastal communities.

  12. Piecewise Structural Equation Model (SEM) Disentangles the Environmental Conditions Favoring Diatom Diazotroph Associations (DDAs) in the Western Tropical North Atlantic (WTNA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenegren, Marcus; Berg, Carlo; Padilla, Cory C; David, Stefan-Sebastian; Montoya, Joseph P; Yager, Patricia L; Foster, Rachel A

    2017-01-01

    Diatom diazotroph associations (DDAs) are important components in the world's oceans, especially in the western tropical north Atlantic (WTNA), where blooms have a significant impact on carbon and nitrogen cycling. However, drivers of their abundances and distribution patterns remain unknown. Here, we examined abundance and distribution patterns for two DDA populations in relation to the Amazon River (AR) plume in the WTNA. Quantitative PCR assays, targeting two DDAs (het-1 and het-2) by their symbiont's nifH gene, served as input in a piecewise structural equation model (SEM). Collections were made during high (spring 2010) and low (fall 2011) flow discharges of the AR. The distributions of dissolved nutrients, chlorophyll- a , and DDAs showed coherent patterns indicative of areas influenced by the AR. A symbiotic Hemiaulus hauckii-Richelia (het-2) bloom (>10 6 cells L -1 ) occurred during higher discharge of the AR and was coincident with mesohaline to oceanic (30-35) sea surface salinities (SSS), and regions devoid of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), low concentrations of both DIP (>0.1 μmol L -1 ) and Si (>1.0 μmol L -1 ). The Richelia (het-1) associated with Rhizosolenia was only present in 2010 and at lower densities (10-1.76 × 10 5 nifH copies L -1 ) than het-2 and limited to regions of oceanic SSS (>36). The het-2 symbiont detected in 2011 was associated with H. membranaceus (>10 3 nifH copies L -1 ) and were restricted to regions with mesohaline SSS (31.8-34.3), immeasurable DIN, moderate DIP (0.1-0.60 μmol L -1 ) and higher Si (4.19-22.1 μmol L -1 ). The piecewise SEM identified a profound direct negative effect of turbidity on the het-2 abundance in spring 2010, while DIP and water turbidity had a more positive influence in fall 2011, corroborating our observations of DDAs at subsurface maximas. We also found a striking difference in the influence of salinity on DDA symbionts suggesting a niche differentiation and preferences in oceanic and

  13. Piecewise Structural Equation Model (SEM Disentangles the Environmental Conditions Favoring Diatom Diazotroph Associations (DDAs in the Western Tropical North Atlantic (WTNA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcus Stenegren

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Diatom diazotroph associations (DDAs are important components in the world’s oceans, especially in the western tropical north Atlantic (WTNA, where blooms have a significant impact on carbon and nitrogen cycling. However, drivers of their abundances and distribution patterns remain unknown. Here, we examined abundance and distribution patterns for two DDA populations in relation to the Amazon River (AR plume in the WTNA. Quantitative PCR assays, targeting two DDAs (het-1 and het-2 by their symbiont’s nifH gene, served as input in a piecewise structural equation model (SEM. Collections were made during high (spring 2010 and low (fall 2011 flow discharges of the AR. The distributions of dissolved nutrients, chlorophyll-a, and DDAs showed coherent patterns indicative of areas influenced by the AR. A symbiotic Hemiaulus hauckii-Richelia (het-2 bloom (>106 cells L-1 occurred during higher discharge of the AR and was coincident with mesohaline to oceanic (30–35 sea surface salinities (SSS, and regions devoid of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN, low concentrations of both DIP (>0.1 μmol L-1 and Si (>1.0 μmol L-1. The Richelia (het-1 associated with Rhizosolenia was only present in 2010 and at lower densities (10-1.76 × 105nifH copies L-1 than het-2 and limited to regions of oceanic SSS (>36. The het-2 symbiont detected in 2011 was associated with H. membranaceus (>103nifH copies L-1 and were restricted to regions with mesohaline SSS (31.8–34.3, immeasurable DIN, moderate DIP (0.1–0.60 μmol L-1 and higher Si (4.19–22.1 μmol L-1. The piecewise SEM identified a profound direct negative effect of turbidity on the het-2 abundance in spring 2010, while DIP and water turbidity had a more positive influence in fall 2011, corroborating our observations of DDAs at subsurface maximas. We also found a striking difference in the influence of salinity on DDA symbionts suggesting a niche differentiation and preferences in oceanic and mesohaline

  14. Atlantic City, New Jersey Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Atlantic City, New Jersey Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)...

  15. Environmental studies results: 1973-1992. Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, J.M.

    1992-01-01

    The Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Environmental Studies Program was initiated in 1973 under the Bureau of Land Management by the Secretary of the Interior. The Purpose of the program was to conduct studies needed to predict, assess and manage impacts on the human, marine and coastal environments of the OCS and nearshore areas that may be affected by oil and gas activities. The narrative summary updates the version printed in 1986, which covered studies managed by the MMS in the Atlantic OCS region between 1973 and 1985. Descriptions of the study results are divided into the following categories: baseline studies and environmental inventories, biology/ecology, drill site monitoring, endangered species, geology/chemistry, oil spill studies, physical oceanography/meteorology, and social and economic studies. Results of each major type of study are subdivided into North Atlantic, Mid-Atlantic, South Atlantic, and multiregional studies in chronological sequence

  16. Environmental Modeling Center

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Environmental Modeling Center provides the computational tools to perform geostatistical analysis, to model ground water and atmospheric releases for comparison...

  17. About the Atlantic Ecology Division (AED) of EPA's National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Atlantic Ecology Division (AED), conducts innovative research and predictive modeling to assess and forecast the risks of anthropogenic stressors to near coastal waters and their watersheds, to develop tools to support resilient watersheds.

  18. Statistical Modelling of Fishing Activities in the North Atlantic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fernández, C.; Ley, E.; Steel, M.F.J.

    1997-01-01

    This paper deals with the issue of modeling daily catches of fishing boats in the Grand Bank fishing grounds. We have data on catches per species for a number of vessels collected by the European Union in the context of the North Atlantic Fisheries Organization. Many variables can be thought to

  19. Low impact of exposure to environmentally relevant doses of 226Ra in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) embryonic cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsvik, Pål A.; Berntssen, Marc H.G.; Hylland, Ketil; Eriksen, Dag Ø.; Holen, Elisabeth

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate whether 226 Ra, a radionuclide present in produced water from oil platforms in the North Sea and other offshore drilling areas, could affect vulnerable early life stages of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Blastula-stage embryonic cells (EC) from fertilized eggs of Atlantic cod were isolated and exposed to environmental relevant concentrations of 226 Ra and transcription of selected genes quantified. The results showed a weak, but significant up-regulation of GPx3 and HSP70 transcripts after 48 h of exposure to 2.11 Bq/L. In EC exposed to three 226 Ra concentrations (2.11, 23 and 117 Bq/L) for 12 h, metallothionein, HSP90AA, thioredoxin and caspase 8 were significantly up-regulated in cells exposed to 117 Bq/L, whereas thioredoxin was also significantly up-regulated in EC exposed to 23 Bq/L. When EC were exposed to the same 226 Ra concentrations for 48 h, only heme oxygenase was significantly up-regulated in the 23 Bq/L exposure group. The results suggest that environmentally relevant activities of 226 Ra may induce oxidative stress and apoptosis in fish ECs. Exposure of Atlantic cod EC to Cd, selected as a model toxicant, supported the ability of EC around blastula stage to respond to toxicants by altered transcription. Due to dilution, environmentally relevant concentrations of radionuclides present in produced water would be expected to pose a minor threat to early life stages of fish. - Highlights: ► 226 Ra affects the transcription of genes in Atlantic cod embryonic cells. ► 226 Ra may induce oxidative stress and apoptosis in fish embryonic cells. ► 226 Ra not expected to pose a major threat to early life stages of marine fish.

  20. Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

    KAUST Repository

    Villarino, E

    2015-07-02

    Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).

  1. Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

    KAUST Repository

    Villarino, E; Chust, G; Licandro, P; Butenschö n, M; Ibaibarriaga, L; Larrañ aga, A; Irigoien, Xabier

    2015-01-01

    Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).

  2. Distribution patterns of wintering sea ducks in relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation and local environmental characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zipkin, Elise F.; Gardner, Beth; Gilbert, Andrew T.; O'Connell, Allan F.; Royle, J. Andrew; Silverman, Emily D.

    2010-01-01

    Twelve species of North American sea ducks (Tribe Mergini) winter off the eastern coast of the United States and Canada. Yet, despite their seasonal proximity to urbanized areas in this region, there is limited information on patterns of wintering sea duck habitat use. It is difficult to gather information on sea ducks because of the relative inaccessibility of their offshore locations, their high degree of mobility, and their aggregated distributions. To characterize environmental conditions that affect wintering distributions, as well as their geographic ranges, we analyzed count data on five species of sea ducks (black scoters Melanitta nigra americana, surf scoters M. perspicillata, white-winged scoters M. fusca, common eiders Somateria mollissima, and long-tailed ducks Clangula hyemalis) that were collected during the Atlantic Flyway Sea Duck Survey for ten years starting in the early 1990s. We modeled count data for each species within ten-nautical-mile linear survey segments using a zero-inflated negative binomial model that included four local-scale habitat covariates (sea surface temperature, mean bottom depth, maximum bottom slope, and a variable to indicate if the segment was in a bay or not), one broad-scale covariate (the North Atlantic Oscillation), and a temporal correlation component. Our results indicate that species distributions have strong latitudinal gradients and consistency in local habitat use. The North Atlantic Oscillation was the only environmental covariate that had a significant (but variable) effect on the expected count for all five species, suggesting that broad-scale climatic conditions may be directly or indirectly important to the distributions of wintering sea ducks. Our results provide critical information on species-habitat associations, elucidate the complicated relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation, sea surface temperature, and local sea duck abundances, and should be useful in assessing the impacts of climate

  3. Modeling environmental policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, W.E.; McDonald, L.A.

    1997-01-01

    The eight book chapters demonstrate the link between the physical models of the environment and the policy analysis in support of policy making. Each chapter addresses an environmental policy issue using a quantitative modeling approach. The volume addresses three general areas of environmental policy - non-point source pollution in the agricultural sector, pollution generated in the extractive industries, and transboundary pollutants from burning fossil fuels. The book concludes by discussing the modeling efforts and the use of mathematical models in general. Chapters are entitled: modeling environmental policy: an introduction; modeling nonpoint source pollution in an integrated system (agri-ecological); modeling environmental and trade policy linkages: the case of EU and US agriculture; modeling ecosystem constraints in the Clean Water Act: a case study in Clearwater National Forest (subject to discharge from metal mining waste); costs and benefits of coke oven emission controls; modeling equilibria and risk under global environmental constraints (discussing energy and environmental interrelations); relative contribution of the enhanced greenhouse effect on the coastal changes in Louisiana; and the use of mathematical models in policy evaluations: comments. The paper on coke area emission controls has been abstracted separately for the IEA Coal Research CD-ROM

  4. Iodine isotopes species fingerprinting environmental conditions in surface water along the northeastern Atlantic Ocean

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    He, Peng; Hou, Xiaolin; Aldahan, Ala

    2013-01-01

    Concentrations and species of iodine isotopes (127I and 129I) provide vital information about iodine geochemistry, environmental conditions and water masses exchange in oceans. Despite extensive investigations of anthropogenic 129I in the Arctic Ocean and the Nordic Seas, concentrations of the is...... 129I in ocean environments and impact on climate at the ocean boundary layer.......Concentrations and species of iodine isotopes (127I and 129I) provide vital information about iodine geochemistry, environmental conditions and water masses exchange in oceans. Despite extensive investigations of anthropogenic 129I in the Arctic Ocean and the Nordic Seas, concentrations...... of the isotope in the Atlantic Ocean are, however, still unknown. We here present first data on 129I and 127I, and their species (iodide and iodate) in surface water transect along the northeastern Atlantic between 30° and 50°N. The results show iodate as the predominant species in the analyzed marine waters...

  5. South Atlantic circulation in a world ocean model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. H. England

    1994-08-01

    Full Text Available The circulation in the South Atlantic Ocean has been simulated within a global ocean general circulation model. Preliminary analysis of the modelled ocean circulation in the region indicates a rather close agreement of the simulated upper ocean flows with conventional notions of the large-scale geostrophic currents in the region. The modelled South Atlantic Ocean witnesses the return flow and export of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW at its northern boundary, the inflow of a rather barotropic Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC through the Drake Passage, and the inflow of warm saline Agulhas water around the Cape of Good Hope. The Agulhas leakage amounts to 8.7 Sv, within recent estimates of the mass transport shed westward at the Agulhas retroflection. Topographic steering of the ACC dominates the structure of flow in the circumpolar ocean. The Benguela Current is seen to be fed by a mixture of saline Indian Ocean water (originating from the Agulhas Current and fresher Subantarctic surface water (originating in the ACC. The Benguela Current is seen to modify its flow and fate with depth; near the surface it flows north-westwards bifurcating most of its transport northward into the North Atlantic Ocean (for ultimate replacement of North Atlantic surface waters lost to the NADW conveyor. Deeper in the water column, more of the Benguela Current is destined to return with the Brazil Current, though northward flows are still generated where the Benguela Current extension encounters the coast of South America. At intermediate levels, these northward currents trace the flow of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW equatorward, though even more AAIW is seen to recirculate poleward in the subtropical gyre. In spite of the model's rather coarse resolution, some subtle features of the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence are simulated rather well, including the latitude at which the two currents meet. Conceptual diagrams of the recirculation and interocean exchange of

  6. South Atlantic circulation in a world ocean model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew H. England

    Full Text Available The circulation in the South Atlantic Ocean has been simulated within a global ocean general circulation model. Preliminary analysis of the modelled ocean circulation in the region indicates a rather close agreement of the simulated upper ocean flows with conventional notions of the large-scale geostrophic currents in the region. The modelled South Atlantic Ocean witnesses the return flow and export of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW at its northern boundary, the inflow of a rather barotropic Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC through the Drake Passage, and the inflow of warm saline Agulhas water around the Cape of Good Hope. The Agulhas leakage amounts to 8.7 Sv, within recent estimates of the mass transport shed westward at the Agulhas retroflection. Topographic steering of the ACC dominates the structure of flow in the circumpolar ocean. The Benguela Current is seen to be fed by a mixture of saline Indian Ocean water (originating from the Agulhas Current and fresher Subantarctic surface water (originating in the ACC. The Benguela Current is seen to modify its flow and fate with depth; near the surface it flows north-westwards bifurcating most of its transport northward into the North Atlantic Ocean (for ultimate replacement of North Atlantic surface waters lost to the NADW conveyor. Deeper in the water column, more of the Benguela Current is destined to return with the Brazil Current, though northward flows are still generated where the Benguela Current extension encounters the coast of South America. At intermediate levels, these northward currents trace the flow of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW equatorward, though even more AAIW is seen to recirculate poleward in the subtropical gyre. In spite of the model's rather coarse resolution, some subtle features of the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence are simulated rather well, including the latitude at which the two currents meet. Conceptual diagrams of the recirculation and interocean

  7. Sinking of Dense North Atlantic Waters in a Global Ocean Model : Location and Controls

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Katsman, C.A.; Drijfhout, SS; Dijkstra, H. A.; Spall, M. A.

    2018-01-01

    We investigate the characteristics of the sinking of dense waters in the North Atlantic Ocean that constitute the downwelling limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as simulated by two global ocean models: an eddy-permitting model at 1/4° resolution and its coarser 1°

  8. Identifying the European fossil fuel plumes in the atmosphere over the Northeast Atlantic Region through isotopic observations and numerical modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geels, C.; Christensen, J.H.; Hansen, A.W.

    2006-01-01

    Atmospheric transport, C-14. fossil fuel CO_2, numerical modeling, the north East Atlantic Region Udgivelsesdato: 18 August......Atmospheric transport, C-14. fossil fuel CO_2, numerical modeling, the north East Atlantic Region Udgivelsesdato: 18 August...

  9. Extended imposex monitoring in N Atlantic Spain confirms punctual attainment of European environmental objectives for TBT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz, José M; Carro, Belén; Albaina, Naiara; Barreiro, Rodolfo; Rial, Diego; Bellas, Juan

    2018-01-01

    Legislation in the European Union (EU) aimed at reaching by 2015 a Good Ecological Status in regard to tributyltin (TBT, the biocide used in traditional antifouling paints). With a view to check such an achievement in N Atlantic Spain, baseline monitoring of gastropod imposex (the recommended assessment tool) was extended up to that date. In Galicia (the Western part of the study area) the use of the rock snail Nucella lapillus since 1996 had shown this environmental objective to be met as soon as 2009, but new surveys reveal no further improvement thereafter. As for the Eastern Cantabrian coast, imposex levels in the mud snail Nassarius reticulatus progressively declined from 2006 to 2015, when records finally complied with expectations. Both data sets are confronted and discussed in relation to the diverse environmental factors that may be determining the distribution of gastropods in these regions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Environmental Measurements and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Environmental measurement is any data collection activity involving the assessment of chemical, physical, or biological factors in the environment which affect human health. Learn more about these programs and tools that aid in environmental decisions

  11. Deep-sea benthic community and environmental impact assessment at the Atlantic Frontier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gage, John D.

    2001-05-01

    The seabed community provides a sensitive litmus for environmental change. North Sea analysis of benthic populations provides an effective means for monitoring impacts from man's interventions, such as offshore oil exploitation and fishing, against baseline knowledge of the environment. Comparable knowledge of the benthic biology in the deep waters of the Atlantic Frontier beyond the N.E. Atlantic shelf edge is poorly developed. But uncertainties should not encourage assumptions and extrapolations from the better-known conditions on the continental shelf. While sampling at present still provides the best means to assess the health of the deepwater benthic habitat, protocols developed for deep-sea fauna should be applied. These are necessary because of (a) lower faunal densities, (b) higher species richness, (c) smaller body size, and (d) to ensure comparability with other deep-sea data. As in the North Sea, species richness and relative abundance can be analysed from quantitative samples in order to detect impacts. But analysis based on taxonomic sufficiency above species level is premature, even if arguably possible for coastal communities. Measures also need to ensure identifications are not forced to more familiar coastal species without proper study. Species-level analysis may be applied to seabed photographs of megafauna in relation to data on bottom environment, such as currents and the sediment, to monitor the health of the deep-water community. Although the composition of higher taxa in the benthic community is broadly similar to soft sediments on the shelf, concordance in sensitivities is speculative. Moreover, new organisms occur, such as giant protozoan xenophyophores, unknown on the continental shelf, whose sensitivities remain conjectural. Past knowledge of the benthic biology of the deep-water areas off Scotland is based on scattered stations and some more focussed, multidisciplinary studies, and should be significantly augmented by the results from

  12. ENVIRONMENTAL AUDITING: AN INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC REGION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Many of today's environmental problems are regional in scope and their effects overlap and interact. We developed a simple method to provide an integrated assessment of environmental conditions and estimate cumulative impacts across a large region, by combining data on land-cove...

  13. Immune and individual level effects of environmental pollutants in North-Atlantic top predators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Desforges, Jean-Pierre

    2017-01-01

    techniques can be used to assess effects on specific health endpoints. To date, however, most studies focus on single compound exposures, rather than realistic complex mixtures, and little has been done to extrapolate molecular effects to higher levels of biological organization. The aim of my PhD was to use...... a unique combination of approaches, namely statistical meta-analyses, in vitro experimentation, analytical chemistry, and ecological modeling, to gain further insight into pollutant accumulation and effects at molecular and organism levels in North-Atlantic top predators....

  14. Dust Fertilization of the Western Atlantic Biota: a Biochemical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, C. W.

    2017-12-01

    Every year an estimated 50 million tons of African dust reaches the Western Atlantic. This dust is composed of quartz sand, clay, and a mixture of quartz and clay particles agglutinated with micronutrient enriched ferruginous cement. However, whether it is friend or foe to biochemical systems is a matter of conjecture. Corals are ideal recorders of changing conditions as the layers can be dated so that the record of chemical changes is easily assessed. There is extensive shallow-and deep water coral development bordering the Florida Straits. The changes in trace element chemistry within these corals show a positive relationship with the African dust record. Recently, it has been demonstrated that many of the metals contained within the dust are necessary micronutrients in the fertilization of plankton. Using the results of these studies, a biochemical model has been constructed. This model suggests a path from inorganic dust through microbial transformation to micronutrient enzymes (i.e. Cd-enriched carbonic anahydrase) and carbonate precipitation on the Bahamian Banks. It is estimated that more than ten million metric tons of this fine, metal-rich sediment is formed each year. However, for much of this sediment, its deposition is temporary, as it is transported into the Florida Straits yearly by tropical cyclones. This metal-enriched fine carbonate becomes nutrients for phytoplankton, providing food for the corals, both shallow and deep.

  15. Distribution and Conservation of Davilla (Dilleniaceae in Brazilian Atlantic Forest Using Ecological Niche Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ismael Martins Pereira

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We have modeled the ecological niche for 12 plant species belonging to the genus Davilla (Dilleniaceae which occur in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil. This group includes endemic species lianas threatened by extinction and is therefore a useful indicator for forest areas requiring conservation. The aims are to compare the distribution and richness of species within the protected areas, assessing the degree of protection and gap analysis of reserves for this group. We used the Maxent algorithm with environmental and occurrence data, and produced geographic distribution maps. The results show that high species richness occurs in forest and coastal forest of Espírito Santo to Bahia states. The endemic species comprise D. flexuosa, D. macrocarpa, D. flexuosa, D. grandifolia, and D. sessilifolia. In the Atlantic Forest of southeastern Brazil, the following endemic species occur: D. tintinnabulata and D. glaziovii, with this latter species being included in the “red list” due habitat loss and predatory extractivism. The indicators of species richness in the coastal region of Bahia correspond with floristic inventories that point to this area having a high biodiversity. Although this region has several protected areas, there are gaps in reserves, which, combined with anthropogenic threats and fragmentation, have caused several problems for biodiversity.

  16. Environmental drivers of vertical distribution in diapausing Calanus copepods in the Northwest Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krumhansl, Kira A.; Head, Erica J. H.; Pepin, Pierre; Plourde, Stéphane; Record, Nicholas R.; Runge, Jeffrey A.; Johnson, Catherine L.

    2018-03-01

    Copepods of the genus Calanus play a critical trophic role in the North Atlantic ecosystems, where they serve as an important source of energy-rich food for fish and marine mammals, including the endangered North Atlantic right whale. As a strategy for coping with unfavorable near-surface conditions, Calanus enter diapause and migrate to deep water in late summer and fall after feeding and accumulating lipid stores in spring and summer. In order to assess the most important physical drivers of vertical distribution of diapausing Calanus, we synthesized existing depth-stratified abundance data of Calanus finmarchicus and Calanus hyperboreus from the Northwest Atlantic continental shelf and slope regions, spanning Newfoundland in the northeast to the Gulf of Maine in the southwest. Bottom depth strongly constrained the depth and shape of vertical distributions, with distributions becoming deeper and less compact as bottom depth increased. Diapausing Calanus, observed across a broad range of temperature (T) and in-situ density (σ) conditions (T = -1.0 to 14.4 °C, σ = 25.3-28.1 kg m-3), tended to distribute at depths with the coldest temperatures locally available. Over the shelf, diapausing Calanus in the GOM and SS generally did not have access to temperatures considered optimal for diapause (<5 °C), in many cases occurring at temperatures well above this threshold. Diapausing Calanus in both habitats were most commonly below the Cold Intermediate Layer (CIL), a feature formed through wind-driven mixing during the winter, but this effect was more obvious over the shelf than in slope waters. Our analysis highlights key differences in the vertical distributions of diapausing Calanus over the shelf vs. the slope, having regional implications for ecological dynamics and population persistence in the face of warming temperatures. In general, understanding factors that influence vertical distributions of diapausing Calanus will allow us to more accurately predict how

  17. Macro-economic environmental models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wier, M.

    1993-01-01

    In the present report, an introduction to macro-economic environmental models is given. The role of the models as a tool for policy analysis is discussed. Future applications, as well as the limitations given by the data, are brought into focus. The economic-ecological system is described. A set of guidelines for implementation of the system in a traditional economic macro-model is proposed. The characteristics of empirical national and international environmental macro-economic models so far are highlighted. Special attention is paid to main economic causalities and their consequences for the environmental policy recommendations sat by the models. (au) (41 refs.)

  18. Phytoplankton biomass dynamics and environmental variables around the Rocas Atoll Biological Reserve, South Atlantic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Cavalcanti Jales

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The Rocas Atoll Biological Reserve is located in the Atlantic Ocean, at 3º 51' S and 33º 49' W. It lies 143 nautical miles from the City of Natal, Rio Grande do Norte (Brazil. The purpose of this study was to analyze the hydrology, water masses, currents and chlorophyll a content to determine the dynamics of phytoplankton biomass around the Rocas Atoll. Samples were collected in July 2010 in the area around the Atoll, using the Research Vessel Cruzeiro do Sul of the Brazilian Navy. Two transects were established according to the surface currents, one of which at the southeast of the Atoll (SE and the other at norwest (NW. Three collection points were determined on each of these transects. Samples were collected at different depths (surface and DCM - Deep Chlorophyll Maximum and different times (day and night. According to PCA (Principal Component Analysis, the nutrients analyzed, DIN (dissolved inorganic nitrogen, DIP (dissolved inorganic phosphorus and silicate, were inversely correlated with temperature and dissolved oxygen. Most environmental variables showed a significant increase due to the turbulence on the Northwest transect. There was an increase in the concentration of chlorophyll a and nutrients when the temperature and oxygen in the mixed layer was reduced due to the influence of the SACW (South Atlantic Central Water. Despite the increase observed in some variables such as nutrient salts and chlorophyll a, the temperature in the mixed layer attained a mean value of 23.23 ºC due to the predominance of Tropical Water. The increase of the phytoplankton biomass on the NW transect was, therefore, caused by the "island effect" and not by upwelling.

  19. Characterising performance of environmental models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bennett, N.D.; Croke, B.F.W.; Guariso, G.; Guillaume, J.H.A.; Hamilton, S.H.; Jakeman, A.J.; Marsili-Libelli, S.; Newham, L.T.H.; Norton, J.; Perrin, C.; Pierce, S.; Robson, B.; Seppelt, R.; Voinov, A.; Fath, B.D.; Andreassian, V.

    2013-01-01

    In order to use environmental models effectively for management and decision-making, it is vital to establish an appropriate level of confidence in their performance. This paper reviews techniques available across various fields for characterising the performance of environmental models with focus

  20. Hierarchical modeling of bycatch rates of sea turtles in the western North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, B.; Sullivan, P.J.; Epperly, S.; Morreale, S.J.

    2008-01-01

    Previous studies indicate that the locations of the endangered loggerhead Caretta caretta and critically endangered leatherback Dermochelys coriacea sea turtles are influenced by water temperatures, and that incidental catch rates in the pelagic longline fishery vary by region. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model to examine the effects of environmental variables, including water temperature, on the number of sea turtles captured in the US pelagic longline fishery in the western North Atlantic. The modeling structure is highly flexible, utilizes a Bayesian model selection technique, and is fully implemented in the software program WinBUGS. The number of sea turtles captured is modeled as a zero-inflated Poisson distribution and the model incorporates fixed effects to examine region-specific differences in the parameter estimates. Results indicate that water temperature, region, bottom depth, and target species are all significant predictors of the number of loggerhead sea turtles captured. For leatherback sea turtles, the model with only target species had the most posterior model weight, though a re-parameterization of the model indicates that temperature influences the zero-inflation parameter. The relationship between the number of sea turtles captured and the variables of interest all varied by region. This suggests that management decisions aimed at reducing sea turtle bycatch may be more effective if they are spatially explicit. ?? Inter-Research 2008.

  1. Marine environmental monitoring related to sea disposal of radioactive waste in the NE Atlantic Ocean

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bettencourt, A.O.; Elias, M.D.T.; Ferrador, G.C.

    1988-01-01

    Reference is made to the sea disposal of packaged radioactive waste in the NE Atlantic and to the role of the OCDE Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) since 1967, in the dumping operations. The objectives of marine environmental monitoring in relation to sea disposal of radioactive wastes are described as well as the coordinated research and environmental surveillance programme (CRESP) developed within NEA frame. The Portuguese on-going programme in this field is presented and the results concerning measurements of 239+240 Pu, 238 Pu, 241 Am and 137 Cs in samples of water, sediments and fish collected at Madeira and Continental Portuguese coasts, are discussed. It was observed that these radionuclides concentrations are lower for deep-sea fishes than for the shallow-water ones. The obtained results are compared with those found in the literature. From the observation of the large spectrum of results available, it can be concluded that no generalized contamination of the marine environment due to the sea dumping of radioactive wastes if observed at present. On the other hand, there is an interest in pursuing analyses of deep-sea fish with the aim of early detection of any possible modifications in the actual levels of radioactivity in the marine environment. (author) [pt

  2. Environmental Satellite Models for a Macroeconomic Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, F.; Grinderslev, D.; Werner, M.

    2003-01-01

    To support national environmental policy, it is desirable to forecast and analyse environmental indicators consistently with economic variables. However, environmental indicators are physical measures linked to physical activities that are not specified in economic models. One way to deal with this is to develop environmental satellite models linked to economic models. The system of models presented gives a frame of reference where emissions of greenhouse gases, acid gases, and leaching of nutrients to the aquatic environment are analysed in line with - and consistently with - macroeconomic variables. This paper gives an overview of the data and the satellite models. Finally, the results of applying the model system to calculate the impacts on emissions and the economy are reviewed in a few illustrative examples. The models have been developed for Denmark; however, most of the environmental data used are from the CORINAIR system implemented in numerous countries

  3. Atlantic multidecadal oceanic variability and its influence on the atmosphere in a climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Msadek, Rym; Frankignoul, Claude [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris 6, LOCEAN/IPSL, Paris (France)

    2009-07-15

    The mechanisms controlling the decadal to multidecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) and its influence on the atmosphere are investigated using a control simulation with the IPSL-CM4 climate model. The multidecadal fluctuations of the MOC are mostly driven by deep convection in the subpolar gyre, which occurs south of Iceland in the model. The latter is primarily influenced by the anomalous advection of salinity due to changes in the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP), which is the second mode of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic region. The North Atlantic Oscillation is the dominant mode, but it plays a secondary role in the MOC fluctuations. During summer, the MOC variability is shown to have a significant impact on the atmosphere in the North Atlantic-European sector. The MOC influence is due to an interhemispheric sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly with opposite signs in the two hemispheres but largest amplitude in the northern one. The SST pattern driven by the MOC mostly resembles the model Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and bears some similarity with the observed one. It is shown that the AMO reflects both the MOC influence and the local atmospheric forcing. Hence, the MOC influence on climate is best detected using lagged relations between climatic fields. The atmospheric response resembles the EAP, in a phase that might induce a weak positive feedback on the MOC. (orig.)

  4. Mechanisms of the atmospheric response to North Atlantic multidecadal variability: a model study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Msadek, Rym [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie-Paris 6, LOCEAN/IPSL, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Princeton University, GFDL/NOAA, AOS Program, Princeton, NJ (United States); Frankignoul, Claude [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie-Paris 6, LOCEAN/IPSL, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Li, Laurent Z.X. [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie-Paris 6, LMD/IPSL, Paris Cedex 05 (France)

    2011-04-15

    The atmospheric circulation response to decadal fluctuations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the IPSL climate model is investigated using the associated sea surface temperature signature. A SST anomaly is prescribed in sensitivity experiments with the atmospheric component of the IPSL model coupled to a slab ocean. The prescribed SST anomaly in the North Atlantic is the surface signature of the MOC influence on the atmosphere detected in the coupled simulation. It follows a maximum of the MOC by a few years and resembles the model Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. It is mainly characterized by a warming of the North Atlantic south of Iceland, and a cooling of the Nordic Seas. There are substantial seasonal variations in the geopotential height response to the prescribed SST anomaly, with an East Atlantic Pattern-like response in summer and a North Atlantic oscillation-like signal in winter. In summer, the response of the atmosphere is global in scale, resembling the climatic impact detected in the coupled simulation, albeit with a weaker amplitude. The zonally asymmetric or eddy part of the response is characterized by a trough over warm SST associated with changes in the stationary waves. A diagnostic analysis with daily data emphasizes the role of transient-eddy forcing in shaping and maintaining the equilibrium response. We show that in response to an intensified MOC, the North Atlantic storm tracks are enhanced and shifted northward during summer, consistent with a strengthening of the westerlies. However the anomalous response is weak, which suggests a statistically significant but rather modest influence of the extratropical SST on the atmosphere. The winter response to the MOC-induced North Atlantic warming is an intensification of the subtropical jet and a southward shift of the Atlantic storm track activity, resulting in an equatorward shift of the polar jet. Although the SST anomaly is only prescribed in the Atlantic ocean

  5. Biodiversity patterns, environmental drivers and indicator species on a high-temperature hydrothermal edifice, Mid-Atlantic Ridge

    OpenAIRE

    Sarrazin, Jozée; Legendre, Pierre; de Busserolles, Fanny; Fabri, Marie-Claire; Guilini, Katja; Ivanenko, Viatcheslav N.; Morineaux, Marie; Vanreusel, Ann; Sarradin, Pierre-Marie

    2015-01-01

    Knowledge on quantitative faunal distribution patterns of hydrothermal communities in slow-spreading vent fields is particularly scarce, despite the importance of these ridges in the global mid-ocean system. This study assessed the composition, abundance and diversity of 12 benthic faunal assemblages from various locations on the Eiffel Tower edifice (Lucky Strike vent field, Mid-Atlantic Ridge) and investigated the role of key environmental conditions (temperature, total dissolved iron (TdFe...

  6. A nested Atlantic-Mediterranean Sea general circulation model for operational forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Oddo

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available A new numerical general circulation ocean model for the Mediterranean Sea has been implemented nested within an Atlantic general circulation model within the framework of the Marine Environment and Security for the European Area project (MERSEA, Desaubies, 2006. A 4-year twin experiment was carried out from January 2004 to December 2007 with two different models to evaluate the impact on the Mediterranean Sea circulation of open lateral boundary conditions in the Atlantic Ocean. One model considers a closed lateral boundary in a large Atlantic box and the other is nested in the same box in a global ocean circulation model. Impact was observed comparing the two simulations with independent observations: ARGO for temperature and salinity profiles and tide gauges and along-track satellite observations for the sea surface height. The improvement in the nested Atlantic-Mediterranean model with respect to the closed one is particularly evident in the salinity characteristics of the Modified Atlantic Water and in the Mediterranean sea level seasonal variability.

  7. Latest Cretaceous climatic and environmental change in the South Atlantic region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woelders, L.; Vellekoop, J.; Kroon, D.; Smit, J.; Casadío, S.; Prámparo, M. B.; Dinarès-Turell, J.; Peterse, F.; Sluijs, A.; Lenaerts, J. T. M.; Speijer, R. P.

    2017-05-01

    Latest Maastrichtian climate change caused by Deccan volcanism has been invoked as a cause of mass extinction at the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) boundary ( 66.0 Ma). Yet late Maastrichtian climate and ecological changes are poorly documented, in particular on the Southern Hemisphere. Here we present upper Maastrichtian-lower Danian climate and biotic records from the Bajada del Jagüel (BJ) shelf site (Neuquén Basin, Argentina), employing the TEX86 paleothermometer, marine palynology (dinoflagellate cysts), and micropaleontology (foraminifera). These records are correlated to the astronomically tuned Ocean Drilling Program Site 1262 (Walvis Ridge). Collectively, we use these records to assess climatic and ecological effects of Deccan volcanism in the Southern Atlantic region. Both the TEX86-based sea surface temperature (SST) record at BJ and the bulk carbonate δ18O-based SST record of Site 1262 show a latest Maastrichtian warming of 2.5-4°C, at 450 to 150 kyr before the K-Pg boundary, coinciding with the a large Deccan outpouring phase. Benthic foraminiferal and dinocyst assemblage changes indicate that this warming resulted in enhanced runoff and stratification of the water column, likely resulting from more humid climate conditions in the Neuquén Basin. These climate conditions could have been caused by an expanding and strengthening thermal low over the South American continent. Biotic changes in response to late Maastrichtian environmental changes are rather limited, when compared to the major turnovers observed at many K-Pg boundary sites worldwide. This suggests that environmental perturbations during the latest Maastrichtian warming event were less severe than those following the K-Pg boundary impact.

  8. Environmental forcing of nitrogen fixation in the eastern tropical and sub-tropical North Atlantic Ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rijkenberg, Micha J A; Langlois, Rebecca J; Mills, Matthew M; Patey, Matthew D; Hill, Polly G; Nielsdóttir, Maria C; Compton, Tanya J; Laroche, Julie; Achterberg, Eric P

    2011-01-01

    During the winter of 2006 we measured nifH gene abundances, dinitrogen (N(2)) fixation rates and carbon fixation rates in the eastern tropical and sub-tropical North Atlantic Ocean. The dominant diazotrophic phylotypes were filamentous cyanobacteria, which may include Trichodesmium and Katagnymene, with up to 10(6) L(-1)nifH gene copies, unicellular group A cyanobacteria with up to 10(5) L(-1)nifH gene copies and gamma A proteobacteria with up to 10(4) L(-1)nifH gene copies. N(2) fixation rates were low and ranged between 0.032-1.28 nmol N L(-1) d(-1) with a mean of 0.30 ± 0.29 nmol N L(-1) d(-1) (1σ, n = 65). CO(2)-fixation rates, representing primary production, appeared to be nitrogen limited as suggested by low dissolved inorganic nitrogen to phosphate ratios (DIN:DIP) of about 2 ± 3.2 in surface waters. Nevertheless, N(2) fixation rates contributed only 0.55 ± 0.87% (range 0.03-5.24%) of the N required for primary production. Boosted regression trees analysis (BRT) showed that the distribution of the gamma A proteobacteria and filamentous cyanobacteria nifH genes was mainly predicted by the distribution of Prochlorococcus, Synechococcus, picoeukaryotes and heterotrophic bacteria. In addition, BRT indicated that multiple a-biotic environmental variables including nutrients DIN, dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) and DIP, trace metals like dissolved aluminum (DAl), as a proxy of dust inputs, dissolved iron (DFe) and Fe-binding ligands as well as oxygen and temperature influenced N(2) fixation rates and the distribution of the dominant diazotrophic phylotypes. Our results suggest that lower predicted oxygen concentrations and higher temperatures due to climate warming may increase N(2) fixation rates. However, the balance between a decreased supply of DIP and DFe from deep waters as a result of more pronounced stratification and an enhanced supply of these nutrients with a predicted increase in deposition of Saharan dust may ultimately determine the

  9. Modeling North Atlantic Nor'easters With Modern Wave Forecast Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perrie, Will; Toulany, Bechara; Roland, Aron; Dutour-Sikiric, Mathieu; Chen, Changsheng; Beardsley, Robert C.; Qi, Jianhua; Hu, Yongcun; Casey, Michael P.; Shen, Hui

    2018-01-01

    Three state-of-the-art operational wave forecast model systems are implemented on fine-resolution grids for the Northwest Atlantic. These models are: (1) a composite model system consisting of SWAN implemented within WAVEWATCHIII® (the latter is hereafter, WW3) on a nested system of traditional structured grids, (2) an unstructured grid finite-volume wave model denoted "SWAVE," using SWAN physics, and (3) an unstructured grid finite element wind wave model denoted as "WWM" (for "wind wave model") which uses WW3 physics. Models are implemented on grid systems that include relatively large domains to capture the wave energy generated by the storms, as well as including fine-resolution nearshore regions of the southern Gulf of Maine with resolution on the scale of 25 m to simulate areas where inundation and coastal damage have occurred, due to the storms. Storm cases include three intense midlatitude cases: a spring Nor'easter storm in May 2005, the Patriot's Day storm in 2007, and the Boxing Day storm in 2010. Although these wave model systems have comparable overall properties in terms of their performance and skill, it is found that there are differences. Models that use more advanced physics, as presented in recent versions of WW3, tuned to regional characteristics, as in the Gulf of Maine and the Northwest Atlantic, can give enhanced results.

  10. Revised draft environmental statement related to construction of Atlantic Generating Station Units 1 and 2 (Docket Nos. STN 50-477 and STN 50-478)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1976-10-01

    The proposed action is the issuance of a construction permit to Public Service Electric and Gas Company (PDE and G) for the construction of the Atlantic Generating Station (AGS), Units 1 and 2. The AGS is the first nuclear power station in the United States proposed for construction in the offshore waters on the continental shelf. The AHS will be located in the Atlantic Ocean 2.8 miles offshore of Atlantic and Ocean countries. New Jersey, 11 miles northeast of Atlantic City, and will consist of two floating nuclear power plants enclosed in a protective rubble-mound breakwater. Both plants will be identical, of standardized design, and will employ pressurized water reactors to produce up to approximately 3425 megawatts thermal (MWt) each. Steam turbine generators will use this heat to produce up to approximately 1150 megawatts of electrical power (MWe) per unit. The main condensers will be cooled by the flow of seawater drawn from within the breakwater and discharged shoreward and external to the breakwater. This statement identifies various environmental aspects and potential adverse effects associated with the construction and operation of the AGS. Based upon an approximate two-year review period which included a multidisciplined assessment of extensive survey and modeling data, these effects are considered by the staff to be of a generally acceptable nature. Breakwater construction will result in the destruction of 100 acres of benthic infauna (burrowing animals) and the development of a reef-type community on the breakwater. The production of new biomass (standing crop) by the reef community is expected to compensate for the infaunal biomass destroyed by dredging and will contribute mainly to the local sport fishery. 93 figs., 110 tabs

  11. Deep-sea benthic habitats modeling and mapping in a NE Atlantic seamount (Galicia Bank)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrano, A.; González-Irusta, J. M.; Punzón, A.; García-Alegre, A.; Lourido, A.; Ríos, P.; Blanco, M.; Gómez-Ballesteros, M.; Druet, M.; Cristobo, J.; Cartes, J. E.

    2017-08-01

    This study presents the results of seafloor habitat identification and mapping of a NE Atlantic deep seamount. An ;assemble first, predict later; approach has been followed to identify and map the benthic habitats of the Galicia Bank (NW Iberian). Biotic patterns inferred from the survey data have been used to drive the definition of benthic assemblages using multivariate tools. Eight assemblages, four hard substrates and four sedimentary ones, have been described from a matrix of structural species. Distribution of these assemblages was correlated with environmental factors (multibeam and backscatter data) using binomial GAMs. Finally, the distribution model of each assemblage was applied to produce continuous maps and pooled in a final map with the distribution of the main benthic habitats. Depth and substrate type are key factors when determining soft bottom communities, whereas rocky habitat distribution is mainly explained by rock slope and orientation. Enrichment by northern water masses (LSW) arriving to GB and possible zooplankton biomass increase at vertical-steep walls by ;bottom trapping; can explain the higher diversity of habitat providing filter-feeders at slope rocky breaks. These results concerning vulnerable species and habitats, such as Lophelia and Madrepora communities and black and bamboo coral aggregations were the basis of the Spanish proposal of inclusion within the Natura 2000 network. The aim of the present study was to establish the scientific criteria needed for managing and protecting those environmental values.

  12. Atmospheric multidecadal variations in the North Atlantic realm: proxy data, observations, and atmospheric circulation model studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Grosfeld

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the spatial and temporal characteristics of multidecadal climate variability in the North Atlantic realm, using observational data, proxy data and model results. The dominant pattern of multidecadal variability of SST depicts a monopolar structure in the North Atlantic during the instrumental period with cold (warm phases during 1900–1925 and 1970–1990 (1870–1890 and 1940–1960. Two atmospheric general circulation models of different complexity forced with global SST over the last century show SLP anomaly patterns from the warm and cold phases of the North Atlantic similar to the corresponding observed patterns. The analysis of a sediment core from Cariaco Basin, a coral record from the northern Red Sea, and a long-term sea level pressure (SLP reconstruction reveals that the multidecadal mode of the atmospheric circulation characterizes climate variability also in the pre-industrial era. The analyses of SLP reconstruction and proxy data depict a persistent atmospheric mode at least over the last 300 years, where SLP shows a dipolar structure in response to monopolar North Atlantic SST, in a similar way as the models' responses do. The combined analysis of observational and proxy data with model experiments provides an understanding of multidecadal climate modes during the late Holocene. The related patterns are useful for the interpretation of proxy data in the North Atlantic realm.

  13. Wintering habitat model for the North Atlantic Right Whale (Eubalaena glacialis) in the southeastern United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gowan, Timothy A; Ortega-Ortiz, Joel G

    2014-01-01

    The coastal waters off the southeastern United States (SEUS) are a primary wintering ground for the endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis), used by calving females along with other adult and juvenile whales. Management actions implemented in this area for the recovery of the right whale population rely on accurate habitat characterization and the ability to predict whale distribution over time. We developed a temporally dynamic habitat model to predict wintering right whale distribution in the SEUS using a generalized additive model framework and aerial survey data from 2003/2004 through 2012/2013. We built upon previous habitat models for right whales in the SEUS and include data from new aerial surveys that extend the spatial coverage of the analysis, particularly in the northern portion of this wintering ground. We summarized whale sightings, survey effort corrected for probability of whale detection, and environmental data at a semimonthly resolution. Consistent with previous studies, sea surface temperature (SST), water depth, and survey year were significant predictors of right whale relative abundance. Additionally, distance to shore, distance to the 22°C SST isotherm, and an interaction between time of year and latitude (to account for the latitudinal migration of whales) were also selected in the analysis presented here. Predictions from the model revealed that the location of preferred habitat differs within and between years in correspondence with variation in environmental conditions. Although cow-calf pairs were rarely sighted in the company of other whales, there was minimal evidence that the preferred habitat of cow-calf pairs was different than that of whale groups without calves at the scale of this study. The results of this updated habitat model can be used to inform management decisions for a migratory species in a dynamic oceanic environment.

  14. Integrated Environmental Assessment Modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guardanz, R; Gimeno, B S; Bermejo, V; Elvira, S; Martin, F; Palacios, M; Rodriguez, E; Donaire, I [Ciemat, Madrid (Spain)

    2000-07-01

    This report describes the results of the Spanish participation in the project Coupling CORINAIR data to cost-effect emission reduction strategies based on critical threshold. (EU/LIFE97/ENV/FIN/336). The subproject has focused on three tasks. Develop tools to improve knowledge on the spatial and temporal details of emissions of air pollutants in Spain. Exploit existing experimental information on plant response to air pollutants in temperate ecosystem and Integrate these findings in a modelling framework that can asses with more accuracy the impact of air pollutants to temperate ecosystems. The results obtained during the execution of this project have significantly improved the models of the impact of alternative emission control strategies on ecosystems and crops in the Iberian Peninsula. (Author) 375 refs.

  15. A watershed-based method for environmental vulnerability assessment with a case study of the Mid-Atlantic region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tran, Liem T., E-mail: ltran1@utk.edu [Department of Geography, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); O& #x27; Neill, Robert V. [OTIE and Associates, Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Smith, Elizabeth R. [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, National Exposure Research Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)

    2012-04-15

    The paper presents a method for environmental vulnerability assessment with a case study of the Mid-Atlantic region. The method is based on the concept of 'self-/peer-appraisal' of a watershed in term of vulnerability. The self-/peer-appraisal process is facilitated by two separate linear optimization programs. The analysis provided insights on the environmental conditions, in general, and the relative vulnerability pattern, in particular, of the Mid-Atlantic region. The suggested method offers a simple but effective and objective way to perform a regional environmental vulnerability assessment. Consequently the method can be used in various steps in environmental assessment and planning. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We present a method for regional environmental vulnerability assessment. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer It is based on the self-/peer-appraisal concept in term of vulnerability. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The analysis is facilitated by two separate linear optimization programs. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method provides insights on the regional relative vulnerability pattern.

  16. Biochemical leaf traits as indicators of tolerance potential in tree species from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest against oxidative environmental stressors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandão, Solange E; Bulbovas, Patricia; Lima, Marcos E L; Domingos, Marisa

    2017-01-01

    The tolerance potential against the oxidative injury in native plants from forest ecosystems affected by environmental stressors depends on how efficiently they keep their pro-oxidant/antioxidant balance. Great variations in plant tolerance are expected, highlighting the higher relevance of measuring biochemical leaf trait indicators of oxidative injury in species with similar functions in the forest than in single species. The use of this functional approach seems very useful in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest because it still holds high plant diversity and was the focus of this study. We aimed at determining the tolerance potential of tree species from the Atlantic Forest remnants in SE Brazil against multiple oxidative environmental stressors. We assumed that pioneer tree species are more tolerant against oxidative stress than non-pioneer tree species and that their tolerance potential vary spatially in response to distinct combined effects of oxidative environmental stressors. The study was carried out in three Atlantic Forest remnants, which differ in physiognomy, species composition, climatic characteristics and air pollution exposure. Leaves of three pioneer and three non-pioneer species were collected from each forest remnant during wet (January 2015) and dry periods (June 2015), for analyses of non-enzymatic and enzymatic antioxidants and oxidative injury indicators. Both hypotheses were confirmed. The pioneer tree species displayed biochemical leaf traits (e.g. high levels of ascorbic acid, glutathione and carotenoids and lower lipid peroxidation) that indicate their higher potential tolerance against oxidative environmental stressors than non-pioneer species. The biochemical leaf traits of both successional groups of species varied between the forest remnants, in response to a linear combination of oxidative environmental stressors, from natural (relative humidity and temperature) and anthropogenic sources (ozone and nitrogen dioxide). Copyright © 2016

  17. An investigation of tropical Atlantic bias in a high-resolution coupled regional climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patricola, Christina M.; Saravanan, R.; Hsieh, Jen-Shan [Texas A and M University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College Station, TX (United States); Li, Mingkui; Xu, Zhao [Texas A and M University, Department of Oceanography, College Station, TX (United States); Ocean University of China, Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography of Ministry of Education, Qingdao (China); Chang, Ping [Texas A and M University, Department of Oceanography, College Station, TX (United States); Ocean University of China, Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography of Ministry of Education, Qingdao (China); Second Institute of Oceanography, State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Hangzhou, Zhejiang (China)

    2012-11-15

    Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) commonly fail to simulate the eastern equatorial Atlantic boreal summer cold tongue and produce a westerly equatorial trade wind bias. This tropical Atlantic bias problem is investigated with a high-resolution (27-km atmosphere represented by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, 9-km ocean represented by the Regional Ocean Modeling System) coupled regional climate model. Uncoupled atmospheric simulations test climate sensitivity to cumulus, land-surface, planetary boundary layer, microphysics, and radiation parameterizations and reveal that the radiation scheme has a pronounced impact in the tropical Atlantic. The CAM radiation simulates a dry precipitation (up to -90%) and cold land-surface temperature (up to -8 K) bias over the Amazon related to an over-representation of low-level clouds and almost basin-wide westerly trade wind bias. The Rapid Radiative Transfer Model and Goddard radiation simulates doubled Amazon and Congo Basin precipitation rates and a weak eastern Atlantic trade wind bias. Season-long high-resolution coupled regional model experiments indicate that the initiation of the warm eastern equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) bias is more sensitive to the local rather than basin-wide trade wind bias and to a wet Congo Basin instead of dry Amazon - which differs from AOGCM simulations. Comparisons between coupled and uncoupled simulations suggest a regional Bjerknes feedback confined to the eastern equatorial Atlantic amplifies the initial SST, wind, and deepened thermocline bias, while barrier layer feedbacks are relatively unimportant. The SST bias in some CRCM simulations resembles the typical AOGCM bias indicating that increasing resolution is unlikely a simple solution to this problem. (orig.)

  18. Bioenergetics modeling of the annual consumption of zooplankton by pelagic fish feeding in the Northeast Atlantic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bachiller, Eneko; Utne, Kjell Rong; Jansen, Teunis

    2018-01-01

    The present study uses bioenergetics modeling to estimate the annual consumption of the main zooplankton groups by some of the most commercially important planktivorous fish stocks in the Northeast Atlantic, namely Norwegian spring-spawning (NSS) herring (Clupea harengus), blue whiting (Micromesi......The present study uses bioenergetics modeling to estimate the annual consumption of the main zooplankton groups by some of the most commercially important planktivorous fish stocks in the Northeast Atlantic, namely Norwegian spring-spawning (NSS) herring (Clupea harengus), blue whiting...

  19. Trace metals in corals--hind casting environmental chemical changes in the tropical Atlantic waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, C. W.; Koenig, A.; Ridley, W. I.; Wilson, S. A.

    2002-12-01

    As corals grow, they secrete a calcareous skeleton with the aid of photosynthetic activity of endosymbiotic dinoflagellates (zooxanthellae). The rate of this secretion varies inter-annually. Entrapped with the carbonate are trace substances that record the chemistry of the surrounding ocean. Detailing changes in chemistry requires careful and very tedious high-resolution sampling. The advent of laser ablation inductive couple plasma/mass spectroscopy (LA-ICP/MS) circumvents this sampling problem. This method also permits a continuous scan of the entire coral skeleton. Another problem has been the lack of a carbonate standard which appears to be resolved with the creation of an artificial carbonate standard (USGS MAC-1). This standard is presently undergoing rigorous analysis, but preliminary results are very positive. The LA-ICP/MS data of three Atlantic corals reveals an intriguing distribution of trace metals and boron that may be related to climatic driven chemical changes during the last hundred years. The distribution of the trace metals appears to have an association with three climate signals: 1. the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), 2. the local effects of El Nino in the Florida region and 3. change in oceanic chemistry, possibly due to rising CO2. Aluminum and titanium levels vary with the strength of the NAO. The highest concentrations occur at the time of strong positive NOA when there is large amount of sediment transported off the deserts of North Africa. This relationship is particularly strong in the coral from the Cape Verde Islands. Along the eastern seaboard of the Atlantic, the relationship is not as pronounced but still observable. Nutrients and anthropogenic trace metals, such as zinc, lead, and mercury appear to correlate with local conditions and show a weak correspondence to the El Nino as it affects south Florida. Boron variation is directly related to the high-density bands of the corals. The long-term record of boron

  20. Communication models in environmental health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guidotti, Tee L

    2013-01-01

    Communication models common in environmental health are not well represented in the literature on health communication. Risk communication is a systematic approach to conveying essential information about a specific environmental issue and a framework for thinking about community risk and the alternatives for dealing with it. Crisis communication is intended to provide essential information to people facing an emergency in order to mitigate its effects and to enable them to make appropriate decisions, and it is primarily used in emergency management. Corporate communication is intended to achieve a change in attitude or perception of an organization, and its role in environmental health is usually public relations or to rehabilitate a damaged reputation. Environmental health education is a more didactic approach to science education with respect to health and the environment. Social marketing uses conventional marketing methods to achieve a socially desirable purpose but is more heavily used in health promotion generally. Communication models and styles in environmental health are specialized to serve the needs of the field in communicating with the community. They are highly structured and executed in different ways but have in common a relative lack of emphasis on changing personal or lifestyle behavior compared with health promotion and public health in general and a tendency to emphasize content on specific environmental issues and decision frameworks for protecting oneself or the community through collective action.

  1. Observed and Modeled Pathways of the Iceland Scotland Overflow Water in the eastern North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Sijia; Lozier, Susan; Zenk, Walter; Bower, Amy; Johns, William

    2017-04-01

    The Iceland Scotland Overflow Water (ISOW), one of the major components of the lower limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), is formed in the Nordic Seas and enters the eastern North Atlantic subpolar gyre via the Iceland-Scotland sill. After entraining the ambient waters, the relatively homogeneous ISOW spreads southward into the North Atlantic. An understanding of the distribution and variability of the spreading pathways of the ISOW is fundamental to our understanding of AMOC structure and variability. Three major ISOW pathways have been identified in the eastern North Atlantic by previous studies: 1) across the Reykjanes Ridge via deep gaps, 2) through the Charlie Gibbs Fracture Zone, and 3) southward along the eastern flank of the Mid Atlantic Ridge (MAR). However, most of these studies were conducted using an Eulerian frame with limited observations, especially for the third pathway along the eastern flank of the MAR. In this work, we give a comprehensive description of ISOW pathways in the Eulerian and Lagrangian frames, quantify the relative importance of each pathway and examine the temporal variability of these pathways. Our study distinguishes itself from past studies by using both Eulerian (current meter data) and Lagrangian (eddy-resolving RAFOS float data) observations in combination with modeling output (1/12° FLAME) to describe ISOW spreading pathways and their variability.

  2. Uncertainty analysis of environmental models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monte, L.

    1990-01-01

    In the present paper an evaluation of the output uncertainty of an environmental model for assessing the transfer of 137 Cs and 131 I in the human food chain are carried out on the basis of a statistical analysis of data reported by the literature. The uncertainty analysis offers the oppotunity of obtaining some remarkable information about the uncertainty of models predicting the migration of non radioactive substances in the environment mainly in relation to the dry and wet deposition

  3. Modeling Environmental Literacy of University Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teksoz, Gaye; Sahin, Elvan; Tekkaya-Oztekin, Ceren

    2012-01-01

    The present study proposed an Environmental Literacy Components Model to explain how environmental attitudes, environmental responsibility, environmental concern, and environmental knowledge as well as outdoor activities related to each other. A total of 1,345 university students responded to an environmental literacy survey (Kaplowitz and Levine…

  4. Use of variability modes to evaluate AR4 climate models over the Euro-Atlantic region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Casado, M.J.; Pastor, M.A. [Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia (AEMET), Madrid (Spain)

    2012-01-15

    This paper analyzes the ability of the multi-model simulations from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to simulate the main leading modes of variability over the Euro-Atlantic region in winter: the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Scandinavian mode (SCAND), the East/Atlantic Oscillation (EA) and the East Atlantic/Western Russia mode (EA/WR). These modes of variability have been evaluated both spatially, by analyzing the intensity and location of their anomaly centres, as well as temporally, by focusing on the probability density functions and e-folding time scales. The choice of variability modes as a tool for climate model assessment can be justified by the fact that modes of variability determine local climatic conditions and their likely change may have important implications for future climate changes. It is found that all the models considered are able to simulate reasonably well these four variability modes, the SCAND being the mode which is best spatially simulated. From a temporal point of view the NAO and SCAND modes are the best simulated. UKMO-HadGEM1 and CGCM3.1(T63) are the models best at reproducing spatial characteristics, whereas CCSM3 and CGCM3.1(T63) are the best ones with regard to the temporal features. GISS-AOM is the model showing the worst performance, in terms of both spatial and temporal features. These results may bring new insight into the selection and use of specific models to simulate Euro-Atlantic climate, with some models being clearly more successful in simulating patterns of temporal and spatial variability than others. (orig.)

  5. Environmental change studies in the Caspian Sea and the north-east Atlantic Ocean

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Povinec, P.; Oregioni, B.; GASTAUD, J.

    2002-01-01

    Caspian Sea and NE Atlantic water profiles were investigated for radionuclide content. Radionuclide data on the water samples collected in 1995 and 1996 in the Caspian Sea show a rapid exchange of water masses in the two deep basins (the Central and Southern Basins). The main source of radionuclides is global fallout. In the NE Atlantic Ocean elevated concentrations of 3 H and 4 C were observed at medium depths (2000-3000 m) which could be explained by high latitude injection processes. (author)

  6. Are Calanus spp. shifting poleward in the North Atlantic? A habitat modelling approach

    KAUST Repository

    Chust, Guillem

    2013-09-16

    In the last decade, the analysis based on Continuous Plankton Recorder survey in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean detected one of the most striking examples of marine poleward migration related to sea warming. The main objective of this study is to verify the poleward shift of zooplankton species (Calanus finmarchicus, C. glacialis, C. helgolandicus, C. hyperboreus) for which distributional changes have been recorded in the North Atlantic Ocean and to assess how much of this shift was triggered by sea warming, using Generalized Additive Models. To this end, the population gravity centre of observed data was compared with that of a series of simulation experiments: (i) a model using only climate factors (i.e. niche-based model) to simulate species habitat suitability, (ii) a model using only temporal and spatial terms to reconstruct the population distribution, and (iii) a model using both factors combined, using a subset of observations as independent dataset for validation. Our findings show that only C. finmarchicus had a consistent poleward shift, triggered by sea warming, estimated in 8.1 km per decade in the North Atlantic (16.5 per decade for the northeast), which is substantially lower than previous works at the assemblage level and restricted to the Northeast Atlantic. On the contrary, C. helgolandicus is expanding in all directions, although its northern distribution limit in the North Sea has shifted northward. Calanus glacialis and C. hyperboreus, which have the geographic centres of populations mainly in the NW Atlantic, showed a slight southward shift, probably responding to cool water penetrating southward in the Labrador Current. Our approach, supported by high model accuracy, shows its power in detecting species latitudinal shifts and identifying its causes, since the trend of occurrence observed data is influenced by the sampling frequency, which has progressively concentrated to lower latitudes with time. © 2013 © 2013 International Council for

  7. The modern and glacial overturning circulation in the Atlantic ocean in PMIP coupled model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. L. Weber

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This study analyses the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC to LGM forcings and boundary conditions in nine PMIP coupled model simulations, including both GCMs and Earth system Models of Intermediate Complexity. Model results differ widely. The AMOC slows down considerably (by 20–40% during the LGM as compared to the modern climate in four models, there is a slight reduction in one model and four models show a substantial increase in AMOC strength (by 10–40%. It is found that a major controlling factor for the AMOC response is the density contrast between Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW and North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW at their source regions. Changes in the density contrast are determined by the opposing effects of changes in temperature and salinity, with more saline AABW as compared to NADW consistently found in all models and less cooling of AABW in all models but one. In only two models is the AMOC response during the LGM directly related to the response in net evaporation over the Atlantic basin. Most models show large changes in the ocean freshwater transports into the basin, but this does not seem to affect the AMOC response. Finally, there is some dependence on the accuracy of the control state.

  8. The Population Consequences of Disturbance Model Application to North Atlantic Right Whales (Eubalaena glacialis)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    physiology, and the revised approach is called PCOD (Population Consequences Of Disturbance). In North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis...acoustic disturbance and prey variability into the PCOD model. OBJECTIVES The objectives for this study are to: 1) develop a Hierarchical...the model to assessing the effects of acoustics on the population. We have refined and applied the PCOD model developed for right whales (Schick et

  9. Bathymetric terrain model of the Atlantic margin for marine geological investigations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Brian D.; Chaytor, Jason D.; ten Brink, Uri S.; Brothers, Daniel S.; Gardner, James V.; Lobecker, Elizabeth A.; Calder, Brian R.

    2016-01-01

    A bathymetric terrain model of the Atlantic margin covering almost 725,000 square kilometers of seafloor from the New England Seamounts in the north to the Blake Basin in the south is compiled from existing multibeam bathymetric data for marine geological investigations. Although other terrain models of the same area are extant, they are produced from either satellite-derived bathymetry at coarse resolution (ETOPO1), or use older bathymetric data collected by using a combination of single beam and multibeam sonars (Coastal Relief Model). The new multibeam data used to produce this terrain model have been edited by using hydrographic data processing software to maximize the quality, usability, and cartographic presentation of the combined 100-meter resolution grid. The final grid provides the largest high-resolution, seamless terrain model of the Atlantic margin..

  10. Modelling size-fractionated primary production in the Atlantic Ocean from remote sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brewin, Robert J. W.; Tilstone, Gavin H.; Jackson, Thomas; Cain, Terry; Miller, Peter I.; Lange, Priscila K.; Misra, Ankita; Airs, Ruth L.

    2017-11-01

    Marine primary production influences the transfer of carbon dioxide between the ocean and atmosphere, and the availability of energy for the pelagic food web. Both the rate and the fate of organic carbon from primary production are dependent on phytoplankton size. A key aim of the Atlantic Meridional Transect (AMT) programme has been to quantify biological carbon cycling in the Atlantic Ocean and measurements of total primary production have been routinely made on AMT cruises, as well as additional measurements of size-fractionated primary production on some cruises. Measurements of total primary production collected on the AMT have been used to evaluate remote-sensing techniques capable of producing basin-scale estimates of primary production. Though models exist to estimate size-fractionated primary production from satellite data, these have not been well validated in the Atlantic Ocean, and have been parameterised using measurements of phytoplankton pigments rather than direct measurements of phytoplankton size structure. Here, we re-tune a remote-sensing primary production model to estimate production in three size fractions of phytoplankton (10 μm) in the Atlantic Ocean, using measurements of size-fractionated chlorophyll and size-fractionated photosynthesis-irradiance experiments conducted on AMT 22 and 23 using sequential filtration-based methods. The performance of the remote-sensing technique was evaluated using: (i) independent estimates of size-fractionated primary production collected on a number of AMT cruises using 14C on-deck incubation experiments and (ii) Monte Carlo simulations. Considering uncertainty in the satellite inputs and model parameters, we estimate an average model error of between 0.27 and 0.63 for log10-transformed size-fractionated production, with lower errors for the small size class (10 μm), and errors generally higher in oligotrophic waters. Application to satellite data in 2007 suggests the contribution of cells 2 μm to total

  11. Uncertainty quantification for environmental models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Mary C.; Lu, Dan; Kavetski, Dmitri; Clark, Martyn P.; Ye, Ming

    2012-01-01

    Environmental models are used to evaluate the fate of fertilizers in agricultural settings (including soil denitrification), the degradation of hydrocarbons at spill sites, and water supply for people and ecosystems in small to large basins and cities—to mention but a few applications of these models. They also play a role in understanding and diagnosing potential environmental impacts of global climate change. The models are typically mildly to extremely nonlinear. The persistent demand for enhanced dynamics and resolution to improve model realism [17] means that lengthy individual model execution times will remain common, notwithstanding continued enhancements in computer power. In addition, high-dimensional parameter spaces are often defined, which increases the number of model runs required to quantify uncertainty [2]. Some environmental modeling projects have access to extensive funding and computational resources; many do not. The many recent studies of uncertainty quantification in environmental model predictions have focused on uncertainties related to data error and sparsity of data, expert judgment expressed mathematically through prior information, poorly known parameter values, and model structure (see, for example, [1,7,9,10,13,18]). Approaches for quantifying uncertainty include frequentist (potentially with prior information [7,9]), Bayesian [13,18,19], and likelihood-based. A few of the numerous methods, including some sensitivity and inverse methods with consequences for understanding and quantifying uncertainty, are as follows: Bayesian hierarchical modeling and Bayesian model averaging; single-objective optimization with error-based weighting [7] and multi-objective optimization [3]; methods based on local derivatives [2,7,10]; screening methods like OAT (one at a time) and the method of Morris [14]; FAST (Fourier amplitude sensitivity testing) [14]; the Sobol' method [14]; randomized maximum likelihood [10]; Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) [10

  12. Contrasting spatial structures of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation between observations and slab ocean model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Cheng; Li, Jianping; Kucharski, Fred; Xue, Jiaqing; Li, Xiang

    2018-04-01

    The spatial structure of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is analyzed and compared between the observations and simulations from slab ocean models (SOMs) and fully coupled models. The observed sea surface temperature (SST) pattern of AMO is characterized by a basin-wide monopole structure, and there is a significantly high degree of spatial coherence of decadal SST variations across the entire North Atlantic basin. The observed SST anomalies share a common decadal-scale signal, corresponding to the basin-wide average (i. e., the AMO). In contrast, the simulated AMO in SOMs (AMOs) exhibits a tripole-like structure, with the mid-latitude North Atlantic SST showing an inverse relationship with other parts of the basin, and the SOMs fail to reproduce the observed strong spatial coherence of decadal SST variations associated with the AMO. The observed spatial coherence of AMO SST anomalies is identified as a key feature that can be used to distinguish the AMO mechanism. The tripole-like SST pattern of AMOs in SOMs can be largely explained by the atmosphere-forced thermodynamics mechanism due to the surface heat flux changes associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The thermodynamic forcing of AMOs by the NAO gives rise to a simultaneous inverse NAO-AMOs relationship at both interannual and decadal timescales and a seasonal phase locking of the AMOs variability to the cold season. However, the NAO-forced thermodynamics mechanism cannot explain the observed NAO-AMO relationship and the seasonal phase locking of observed AMO variability to the warm season. At decadal timescales, a strong lagged relationship between NAO and AMO is observed, with the NAO leading by up to two decades, while the simultaneous correlation of NAO with AMO is weak. This lagged relationship and the spatial coherence of AMO can be well understood from the view point of ocean dynamics. A time-integrated NAO index, which reflects the variations in Atlantic meridional overturning

  13. An anatomy of the projected North Atlantic warming hole in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menary, Matthew B.; Wood, Richard A.

    2018-04-01

    Global mean surface air temperature has increased over the past century and climate models project this trend to continue. However, the pattern of change is not homogeneous. Of particular interest is the subpolar North Atlantic, which has cooled in recent years and is projected to continue to warm less rapidly than the global mean. This is often termed the North Atlantic warming hole (WH). In climate model projections, the development of the WH is concomitant with a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here, we further investigate the possible link between the AMOC and WH and the competing drivers of vertical mixing and surface heat fluxes. Across a large ensemble of 41 climate models we find that the spatial structure of the WH varies considerably from model to model but is generally upstream of the simulated deep water formation regions. A heat budget analysis suggests the formation of the WH is related to changes in ocean heat transport. Although the models display a plethora of AMOC mean states, they generally predict a weakening and shallowing of the AMOC also consistent with the evolving depth structure of the WH. A lagged regression analysis during the WH onset phase suggests that reductions in wintertime mixing lead a weakening of the AMOC by 5 years in turn leading initiation of the WH by 5 years. Inter-model differences in the evolution and structure of the WH are likely to lead to somewhat different projected climate impacts in nearby Europe and North America.

  14. Environmental radioactivity in the North Atlantic region. The Faroe Islands and Greenland included. 1985

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aarkrog, A.; Boelskifte, S.; Dahlgaard, H.; Hansen, H.; Buch, E.; Christensen, G.C.; Hallstadius, L.; Rioseco, J.; Holm, E.

    1987-06-01

    Measurements of fallout radioactivity in the North Atlantic region including the Faroe Islands and Greenland are reported. Strontium-90 and cesium-137 was determined in samples of precipitation, sea water vegetation, various foodstuffs (including milk in the Faroes) and drinking water. Estimates are given of the mean contents of 90 Sr a 137 Cs in human diet in the Faroes and Greenland in 1985. Results from samplings of surface sea water and seaweed in the English Channel, the Fram Strait and along the Norwegian and Greenland coast are reported. Beside radiocesium and 90 Sr some of these samples have also been analysed for tritium, plutonium and americium. Finally technetium-99 data on seaweed and sea water samples collected in the North Atlantic region are presented. 14 refs. (author)

  15. Environmental radioactivity in the North Atlantic region. The Faroe Islands and Greenland included. 1983

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aarkrog, A.; Boelskifte, S.; Buch, E.; Christensen, G.C.; Dahlgaard, H.; Hallstadius, L.; Hansen, H.; Holm, E.; Mattsson, S.; Meide, A.

    1984-12-01

    Measurements of fallout radioactivity in the North Atlantic region including the Faroe Islands and Greenland are reported. Strontium-90 and cesium-137 was determined in samples of precipitation, sea water, vegetation, various foodstuffs (including milk in the Faroes) and drinking water. Estimates are given of the mean contents of 90 Sr and 137 Cs in human diet in the Faroes and Greenland in 1983. Results from samplings of surface sea water and seaweed in the Norwegian and Greenland Seas and along the Norwegian and Greenland west coasts are reported. Beside radiocesium and 90 Sr some of these samples have also been anlysed for tritium,plutonium and americium. Finally technetium-99 data on seaweed samples collected in the North Atlantic region since the beginning of the sixties are presented. (author)

  16. Environmental radioactivity in the North Atlantic region. The Faroe Islands and Greenland included. 1984

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aarkrog, A.; Boelskifte, S.; Buch, E.; Christensen, G.C.; Dahlgaard, H.; Hallstadius, L.; Hansen, H.; Holm, E.

    1985-12-01

    Measurements of fallout radioactivity in the North Atlantic region including the Faroe Islands and Greenland are reported. Strontium-90 and cesium-137 was determined in samples of precipitation, sea water, vegetation, various foodstuffs (including milk in the Faroes) and drinking water. Estimates are given of the mean contents of 90 Sr and 137 Cs in human diet in the Faroes and Greenland in 1984. Results from samplings of surface sea water and seaweed in the Norwegian and Greenland Seas and along the Norwegian and Greenland west coasts are reported. Beside radiocesium and 90 Sr some of these samples have also been anlysed for tritium, polonium, plutonium and americium. Finally technetium-99 data on seaweed samples collected in the North Atlantic region since the beginning of the sixties are presented. (author)

  17. Environmental Composites for Bomb Cyclones of the Western North Atlantic in Reanalysis, 1948-2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, R.; Sheridan, S. C.

    2017-12-01

    "Bomb" cyclones represent a small subset of mid-latitude cyclones characterized by rapid intensification and frequently are associated with extreme weather conditions along the eastern coast of North America. Like other extreme phenomena, bomb cyclone predictions are prone to error leading to inadequate or untimely hazard warnings. The rare nature of bomb cyclones and the uniqueness of their evolutions has made it difficult for researchers to make meaningful generalizations on bomb cyclone events. This paper describes bomb cyclone climatology for the western North Atlantic, using data from the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis for 1948-2016, and uses a synoptic climatological analysis to relate these bombs to their associated atmospheric environments. A self-organizing map (SOM) of 300-hPa geopotential height tendency is created to partition the regional atmospheric environment. Thermodynamic fields are contrasted by each 300-hPa geopotential height tendency pattern for both bomb and non-bomb events in composite difference maps. The SOM patterns most significantly associated with western North Atlantic bomb cyclogenesis are characterized by both strongly and weakly negative height tendencies along the eastern United States. In both cases, these patterns exhibit strong meridional flow, a distinction marked by the weakening and breaking down of the polar vortex in the boreal Winter. The composite maps for each pattern show the mean differences in low-mid level ascent and near surface thermodynamics for bomb environments contrasted with non-bomb environments, resulting in diverse spatiotemporal distributions of bombs in the western North Atlantic.

  18. Knowing the Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest in childhood: a contribution of the theory of multiple intelligence for environmental education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerie Nicollier

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available This study is grounded in the cognitive sciences and represents a comprehensive inquiry into children's environmental knowledge. It started with an investigation of a specific situation: studying an urban population – stigmatized by a history of local environmental destruction, unconsciously wrought upon an area that is nowadays acknowledged as a natural biodiversity hotspot, the Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest. Based on the Multiple Intelligence Theory (MIT, that describes the presence of several intelligences in human beings, including a naturalist intelligence, this study aimed at improving the understanding of abilities related to environmental knowledge and the differentiation of such abilities from other ways of knowing usually valued in mainstream education. Forty-five (45 students of a primary school located in south Bahia, Brazil, their teachers, and their parents participated in this investigation between 2002 to 2004. Results suggest that the cognitive domains which are subjacent to environmental knowledge are place specific and need to be stimulated in primary schools by formulating more attractive, efficient, and innovative environmental educational methodologies.

  19. Topographic asymmetry of the South Atlantic from global models of mantle flow and lithospheric stretching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flament, Nicolas; Gurnis, Michael; Williams, Simon; Seton, Maria; Skogseid, Jakob; Heine, Christian; Müller, Dietmar

    2014-05-01

    The relief of the South Atlantic is characterized by elevated passive continental margins along southern Africa and eastern Brazil, and by the bathymetric asymmetry of the southern oceanic basin where the western flank is much deeper than the eastern flank. We investigate the origin of these topographic features in the present and over time since the Jurassic with a model of global mantle flow and lithospheric deformation. The model progressively assimilates plate kinematics, plate boundaries and lithospheric age derived from global tectonic reconstructions with deforming plates, and predicts the evolution of mantle temperature, continental crustal thickness, long-wavelength dynamic topography, and isostatic topography. Mantle viscosity and the kinematics of the opening of the South Atlantic are adjustable parameters in multiple model cases. Model predictions are compared to observables both for the present-day and in the past. Present-day predictions are compared to topography, mantle tomography, and an estimate of residual topography. Predictions for the past are compared to tectonic subsidence from backstripped borehole data along the South American passive margin, and to dynamic uplift as constrained by thermochronology in southern Africa. Comparison between model predictions and observations suggests that the first-order features of the topography of the South Atlantic are due to long-wavelength dynamic topography, rather than to asthenospheric processes. We find the uplift of southern Africa to be best reproduced with a lower mantle that is at least 40 times more viscous than the upper mantle.

  20. Variability along the Atlantic water pathway in the forced Norwegian Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langehaug, H. R.; Sandø, A. B.; Årthun, M.; Ilıcak, M.

    2018-03-01

    The growing attention on mechanisms that can provide predictability on interannual-to-decadal time scales, makes it necessary to identify how well climate models represent such mechanisms. In this study we use a high (0.25° horizontal grid) and a medium (1°) resolution version of a forced global ocean-sea ice model, utilising the Norwegian Earth System Model, to assess the impact of increased ocean resolution. Our target is the simulation of temperature and salinity anomalies along the pathway of warm Atlantic water in the subpolar North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas. Although the high resolution version has larger biases in general at the ocean surface, the poleward propagation of thermohaline anomalies is better resolved in this version, i.e., the time for an anomaly to travel northward is more similar to observation based estimates. The extent of these anomalies can be rather large in both model versions, as also seen in observations, e.g., stretching from Scotland to northern Norway. The easternmost branch into the Nordic and Barents Seas, carrying warm Atlantic water, is also improved by higher resolution, both in terms of mean heat transport and variability in thermohaline properties. A more detailed assessment of the link between the North Atlantic Ocean circulation and the thermohaline anomalies at the entrance of the Nordic Seas reveals that the high resolution is more consistent with mechanisms that are previously published. This suggests better dynamics and variability in the subpolar region and the Nordic Seas in the high resolution compared to the medium resolution. This is most likely due a better representation of the mean circulation in the studied region when using higher resolution. As the poleward propagation of ocean heat anomalies is considered to be a key source of climate predictability, we recommend that similar methodology presented herein should be performed on coupled climate models that are used for climate prediction.

  1. Freight planning and regional cooperation in the Piedmont Atlantic megaregion : a regional models of cooperation peer exchange summary report

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-08

    This report highlights key themes identified at the Freight Planning and Regional Cooperation in the Piedmont Atlantic Megaregion Peer Exchange held on January 31, 2017 and February 1, 2017 in Atlanta, Georgia. The Regional Models of Cooperatio...

  2. North Atlantic deep water formation and AMOC in CMIP5 models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Heuzé

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Deep water formation in climate models is indicative of their ability to simulate future ocean circulation, carbon and heat uptake, and sea level rise. Present-day temperature, salinity, sea ice concentration and ocean transport in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and Nordic Seas from 23 CMIP5 (Climate Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 models are compared with observations to assess the biases, causes and consequences of North Atlantic deep convection in models. The majority of models convect too deep, over too large an area, too often and too far south. Deep convection occurs at the sea ice edge and is most realistic in models with accurate sea ice extent, mostly those using the CICE model. Half of the models convect in response to local cooling or salinification of the surface waters; only a third have a dynamic relationship between freshwater coming from the Arctic and deep convection. The models with the most intense deep convection have the warmest deep waters, due to a redistribution of heat through the water column. For the majority of models, the variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC is explained by the volumes of deep water produced in the subpolar gyre and Nordic Seas up to 2 years before. In turn, models with the strongest AMOC have the largest heat export to the Arctic. Understanding the dynamical drivers of deep convection and AMOC in models is hence key to realistically forecasting Arctic oceanic warming and its consequences for the global ocean circulation, cryosphere and marine life.

  3. A Mixed Integer Linear Programming Model for the North Atlantic Aircraft Trajectory Planning

    OpenAIRE

    Sbihi , Mohammed; Rodionova , Olga; Delahaye , Daniel; Mongeau , Marcel

    2015-01-01

    International audience; This paper discusses the trajectory planning problem for ights in the North Atlantic oceanic airspace (NAT). We develop a mathematical optimization framework in view of better utilizing available capacity by re-routing aircraft. The model is constructed by discretizing the problem parameters. A Mixed integer linear program (MILP) is proposed. Based on the MILP a heuristic to solve real-size instances is also introduced

  4. Velocity Model for CO2 Sequestration in the Southeastern United States Atlantic Continental Margin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ollmann, J.; Knapp, C. C.; Almutairi, K.; Almayahi, D.; Knapp, J. H.

    2017-12-01

    The sequestration of carbon dioxide (CO2) is emerging as a major player in offsetting anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. With 40% of the United States' anthropogenic CO2 emissions originating in the southeast, characterizing potential CO2 sequestration sites is vital to reducing the United States' emissions. The goal of this research project, funded by the Department of Energy (DOE), is to estimate the CO2 storage potential for the Southeastern United States Atlantic Continental Margin. Previous studies find storage potential in the Atlantic continental margin. Up to 16 Gt and 175 Gt of storage potential are estimated for the Upper Cretaceous and Lower Cretaceous formations, respectively. Considering 2.12 Mt of CO2 are emitted per year by the United States, substantial storage potential is present in the Southeastern United States Atlantic Continental Margin. In order to produce a time-depth relationship, a velocity model must be constructed. This velocity model is created using previously collected seismic reflection, refraction, and well data in the study area. Seismic reflection horizons were extrapolated using well log data from the COST GE-1 well. An interpolated seismic section was created using these seismic horizons. A velocity model will be made using P-wave velocities from seismic reflection data. Once the time-depth conversion is complete, the depths of stratigraphic units in the seismic refraction data will be compared to the newly assigned depths of the seismic horizons. With a lack of well control in the study area, the addition of stratigraphic unit depths from 171 seismic refraction recording stations provides adequate data to tie to the depths of picked seismic horizons. Using this velocity model, the seismic reflection data can be presented in depth in order to estimate the thickness and storage potential of CO2 reservoirs in the Southeastern United States Atlantic Continental Margin.

  5. Environmental radioactivity in the North Atlantic region including the Faroe Islands and Greenland. 1990 and 1991

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aarkrog, A.; Chen, Q.J.; Dahlgaard, H.; Hansen, H.; Nielsen, S.P.; Strandberg, M.; Buch, E.; Christensen, G.C.; Holm, E.

    1994-01-01

    Measurements of fallout radioactivity in the North Atlantic region including Faroe Islands and Greenland are reported. Strontium-90, cesium-137 and cesium-134 were determined in samples of precipitation, sea water, vegetation, various foodstuffs (including milk in the Faroes), and drinking water. Estimates are given of the mean contents of 90 Sr and 137 Cs in human diet in the Faroes and Greenland in 1990 and 1991. 99 Tc data on marine samples, in particular sea water from the Greenland Sea, are reported. (au) (77 tabs., 46 ills., 8 refs.)

  6. Bivalve aquaculture transfers in Atlantic Europe. Part B: Environmental impacts of transfer activities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brenner, M.; Fraser, D.; Van Nieuwenhove, K.

    2014-01-01

    For centuries human populations have moved live shellfish around the world for consumption or aquaculture purposes; being relayed from their area of origin for growout or sale. This is in contrast to the inadvertent anthropogenic spreading of species via e.g. ballast waters. There are inherent...... designed to minimise the impact on ecosystems worldwide. In a companion paper details of actual transfer activities in Atlantic Europe are presented and all levels of legislation dealing with transfer activities on a global, regional and national scale are carefully reviewed....

  7. Environmental radioactivity in the North Atlantic region including the Faroe Islands and Greenland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aarkrog, A.; Chen, Q.J.; Dahlgaard, H.; Hansen, H.; Nielsen, S.P.; Buch, E.; Christensen, G.C.; Holm, E.

    1992-01-01

    Measurements of fallout radioactivity in the North Atlantic region including the Faroe Islands and Greenland are reported. Strontium-90, cesium-137 and cesium-134 were determined in samples of precipitation, sea water, vegetation, various foodstuffs (including milk in the Faroes), and drinking water. Estimates are given of the mean contents of 90 Sr and 137 Cs in human diet in the Faroes and Greenland in 1988 and 1989. 99 Tc data on marine samples, in particular sea water from the Greenland Sea, are reported. (au) (91 taps., 51 ills., 7 refs.)

  8. Environmental model for a capital city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Eugenia Toca Torres

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available From a review of the various options for modeling a sustainable development in its environmental dimension, this research proposes a model of environmental impact for Bogota, using the Vensim PLE software to model the pollution, the pollution load and soil contamination. The model includes a limited number of endogenous variables, as well as a greater number of exogenous variables. This modeling allows us to anticipate the environmental situation in the capital, in order to support public policies for addressing issues such as economic sanctions and moral regulations on emissions, discharges and waste, environmental measures and environmentally friendly practices

  9. Internal and external North Atlantic Sector variability in the Kiel climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun; Ding, Hui; Keenlyside, Noel S. [Leibniz-Inst. fuer Meereswissenschaften, Kiel (Germany)

    2009-08-15

    The internal and external North Atlantic Sector variability is investigated by means of a multimillennial control run and forced experiments with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). The internal variability is studied by analyzing the control run. The externally forced variability is investigated in a run with periodic millennial solar forcing and in greenhouse warming experiments with enhanced carbon dioxide concentrations. The surface air temperature (SAT) averaged over the Northern Hemisphere simulated in the control run displays enhanced variability relative to the red background at decadal, centennial, and millennial timescales. Special emphasis is given to the variability of the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC). The MOC plays an important role in the generation of internal climate modes. Furthermore, the MOC provides a strong negative feedback on the Northern Hemisphere SAT in both the solar and greenhouse warming experiments, thereby moderating the direct effects of the external forcing in the North Atlantic. The implications of the results for decadal predictability are discussed. (orig.)

  10. Hierarchical modelling of temperature and habitat size effects on population dynamics of North Atlantic cod

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mantzouni, Irene; Sørensen, Helle; O'Hara, Robert B.

    2010-01-01

    and Beverton and Holt stock–recruitment (SR) models were extended by applying hierarchical methods, mixed-effects models, and Bayesian inference to incorporate the influence of these ecosystem factors on model parameters representing cod maximum reproductive rate and carrying capacity. We identified......Understanding how temperature affects cod (Gadus morhua) ecology is important for forecasting how populations will develop as climate changes in future. The effects of spawning-season temperature and habitat size on cod recruitment dynamics have been investigated across the North Atlantic. Ricker...

  11. Modelling the chemically aged and mixed aerosols over the eastern central Atlantic Ocean – potential impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Astitha

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Detailed information on the chemical and physical properties of aerosols is important for assessing their role in air quality and climate. This work explores the origin and fate of continental aerosols transported over the Central Atlantic Ocean, in terms of chemical composition, number and size distribution, using chemistry-transport models, satellite data and in situ measurements. We focus on August 2005, a period with intense hurricane and tropical storm activity over the Atlantic Ocean. A mixture of anthropogenic (sulphates, nitrates, natural (desert dust, sea salt and chemically aged (sulphate and nitrate on dust aerosols is found entering the hurricane genesis region, most likely interacting with clouds in the area. Results from our modelling study suggest rather small amounts of accumulation mode desert dust, sea salt and chemically aged dust aerosols in this Atlantic Ocean region. Aerosols of smaller size (Aitken mode are more abundant in the area and in some occasions sulphates of anthropogenic origin and desert dust are of the same magnitude in terms of number concentrations. Typical aerosol number concentrations are derived for the vertical layers near shallow cloud formation regimes, indicating that the aerosol number concentration can reach several thousand particles per cubic centimetre. The vertical distribution of the aerosols shows that the desert dust particles are often transported near the top of the marine cloud layer as they enter into the region where deep convection is initiated. The anthropogenic sulphate aerosol can be transported within a thick layer and enter the cloud deck through multiple ways (from the top, the base of the cloud, and by entrainment. The sodium (sea salt related aerosol is mostly found below the cloud base. The results of this work may provide insights relevant for studies that consider aerosol influences on cloud processes and storm development in the Central Atlantic region.

  12. Modelling climate change effects on Atlantic salmon: Implications for mitigation in regulated rivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundt-Hansen, L E; Hedger, R D; Ugedal, O; Diserud, O H; Finstad, A G; Sauterleute, J F; Tøfte, L; Alfredsen, K; Forseth, T

    2018-08-01

    Climate change is expected to alter future temperature and discharge regimes of rivers. These regimes have a strong influence on the life history of most aquatic river species, and are key variables controlling the growth and survival of Atlantic salmon. This study explores how the future abundance of Atlantic salmon may be influenced by climate-induced changes in water temperature and discharge in a regulated river, and investigates how negative impacts in the future can be mitigated by applying different regulated discharge regimes during critical periods for salmon survival. A spatially explicit individual-based model was used to predict juvenile Atlantic salmon population abundance in a regulated river under a range of future water temperature and discharge scenarios (derived from climate data predicted by the Hadley Centre's Global Climate Model (GCM) HadAm3H and the Max Plank Institute's GCM ECHAM4), which were then compared with populations predicted under control scenarios representing past conditions. Parr abundance decreased in all future scenarios compared to the control scenarios due to reduced wetted areas (with the effect depending on climate scenario, GCM, and GCM spatial domain). To examine the potential for mitigation of climate change-induced reductions in wetted area, simulations were run with specific minimum discharge regimes. An increase in abundance of both parr and smolt occurred with an increase in the limit of minimum permitted discharge for three of the four GCM/GCM spatial domains examined. This study shows that, in regulated rivers with upstream storage capacity, negative effects of climate change on Atlantic salmon populations can potentially be mitigated by release of water from reservoirs during critical periods for juvenile salmon. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  13. Adequacy assessment of mathematical models in the dynamics of litter decomposition in a tropical forest Mosaic Atlantic, in southeastern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FP. Nunes

    Full Text Available The study of litter decomposition and nutrient cycling is essential to know native forests structure and functioning. Mathematical models can help to understand the local and temporal litter fall variations and their environmental variables relationships. The objective of this study was test the adequacy of mathematical models for leaf litter decomposition in the Atlantic Forest in southeastern Brazil. We study four native forest sites in Parque Estadual do Rio Doce, a Biosphere Reserve of the Atlantic, which were installed 200 bags of litter decomposing with 20×20 cm nylon screen of 2 mm, with 10 grams of litter. Monthly from 09/2007 to 04/2009, 10 litterbags were removed for determination of the mass loss. We compared 3 nonlinear models: 1 – Olson Exponential Model (1963, which considers the constant K, 2 – Model proposed by Fountain and Schowalter (2004, 3 – Model proposed by Coelho and Borges (2005, which considers the variable K through QMR, SQR, SQTC, DMA and Test F. The Fountain and Schowalter (2004 model was inappropriate for this study by overestimating decomposition rate. The decay curve analysis showed that the model with the variable K was more appropriate, although the values of QMR and DMA revealed no significant difference (p> 0.05 between the models. The analysis showed a better adjustment of DMA using K variable, reinforced by the values of the adjustment coefficient (R2. However, convergence problems were observed in this model for estimate study areas outliers, which did not occur with K constant model. This problem can be related to the non-linear fit of mass/time values to K variable generated. The model with K constant shown to be adequate to describe curve decomposition for separately areas and best adjustability without convergence problems. The results demonstrated the adequacy of Olson model to estimate tropical forest litter decomposition. Although use of reduced number of parameters equaling the steps of the

  14. Adequacy assessment of mathematical models in the dynamics of litter decomposition in a tropical forest Mosaic Atlantic, in southeastern Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, F P; Garcia, Q S

    2015-05-01

    The study of litter decomposition and nutrient cycling is essential to know native forests structure and functioning. Mathematical models can help to understand the local and temporal litter fall variations and their environmental variables relationships. The objective of this study was test the adequacy of mathematical models for leaf litter decomposition in the Atlantic Forest in southeastern Brazil. We study four native forest sites in Parque Estadual do Rio Doce, a Biosphere Reserve of the Atlantic, which were installed 200 bags of litter decomposing with 20 × 20 cm nylon screen of 2 mm, with 10 grams of litter. Monthly from 09/2007 to 04/2009, 10 litterbags were removed for determination of the mass loss. We compared 3 nonlinear models: 1 - Olson Exponential Model (1963), which considers the constant K, 2 - Model proposed by Fountain and Schowalter (2004), 3 - Model proposed by Coelho and Borges (2005), which considers the variable K through QMR, SQR, SQTC, DMA and Test F. The Fountain and Schowalter (2004) model was inappropriate for this study by overestimating decomposition rate. The decay curve analysis showed that the model with the variable K was more appropriate, although the values of QMR and DMA revealed no significant difference (p > 0.05) between the models. The analysis showed a better adjustment of DMA using K variable, reinforced by the values of the adjustment coefficient (R2). However, convergence problems were observed in this model for estimate study areas outliers, which did not occur with K constant model. This problem can be related to the non-linear fit of mass/time values to K variable generated. The model with K constant shown to be adequate to describe curve decomposition for separately areas and best adjustability without convergence problems. The results demonstrated the adequacy of Olson model to estimate tropical forest litter decomposition. Although use of reduced number of parameters equaling the steps of the decomposition

  15. Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on European tropospheric composition: an observational and modelling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pope, R.; Chipperfield, M.

    2017-12-01

    The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has a strong influence on winter-time North Atlantic and European circulation patterns. Under the positive phase of the NAO (NAO+), intensification of the climatological Icelandic low and Azores high pressure systems results in strong westerly flow across the Atlantic into Europe. Under the NAO negative phase (NAO-), there is a weakening of this meridional pressure gradient resulting in a southerly shift in the westerlies flow towards the sub-tropical Atlantic. Therefore, NAO+ and NAO- introduce unstable stormy and drier stable conditions into Europe, respectively. Under NAO+ conditions, the strong westerlies tend to enhance transport of European pollution (e.g. nitrogen oxides) away from anthropogenic source regions. While during NAO-, the more stable conditions lead to a build up of pollutants. However, secondary pollutants (i.e. tropospheric ozone) show the opposite signal where NAO+, while transporting primary pollutants away, introduces Atlantic ozone enriched air into Europe. Here ozone can form downwind of pollution from continental North America and be transported into Europe via the westerly flow. Under NAO-, this westerly ozone transport is reduced yielding lower European ozone concentrations also depleted further by ozone loss through the reaction with NOx, which has accumulated over the continent. Peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), observed in the upper troposphere - lower stratosphere (UTLS) by satellite, peaks over Iceland/Southern Greenland in NAO-, between 200-100 hPa, consistent with trapping by an anticyclone at this altitude. During NAO+, PAN is enhanced over the sub-tropical Atlantic and Arctic. Model simulations show that enhanced PAN over Iceland/Southern Greenland in NAO- is associated with vertical transport from the troposphere into the UTLS, while peak Arctic PAN in NAO+ is its accumulation given the strong northerly meridional transport in the UTLS. UTLS ozone spatial anomalies, relative to the winter

  16. U.S. Coastal Relief Model - Southeast Atlantic

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NGDC's U.S. Coastal Relief Model (CRM) provides the first comprehensive view of the U.S. coastal zone integrating offshore bathymetry with land topography into a...

  17. U.S. Coastal Relief Model - Northeast Atlantic

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NGDC's U.S. Coastal Relief Model (CRM) provides the first comprehensive view of the U.S. coastal zone integrating offshore bathymetry with land topography into a...

  18. Atlantic City, New Jersey Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  19. The North Atlantic Ocean as habitat for Calanus finmarchicus: environmental factors and life history traits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Melle, Webjørn; Runge, Jeffrey A.; Head, Erica

    2014-01-01

    in the deep waters adjacent to the lower latitude western North Atlantic shelves than in the east, (8) there are differences in stage-specific daily mortality rates between eastern and western shelves and basins, but the survival trajectories for cohort development from CI to CV are similar, and (9) early...... for understanding population responses of C. finmarchicus to climate forcing, (2) recruitment to the youngest copepodite stages occurs during or just after the phytoplankton bloom in the east whereas it occurs after the bloom at many western sites, with up to 3.5 months difference in recruitment timing, (3......) the deep basin and gyre of the southern Norwegian Sea is the centre of production and overwintering of C. finmarchicus, upon which the surrounding waters depend, whereas, in the Labrador/Irminger Seas production mainly occurs along the margins, such that the deep basins serve as collection areas...

  20. Connecting Atlantic temperature variability and biological cycling in two earth system models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gnanadesikan, Anand; Dunne, John P.; Msadek, Rym

    2014-05-01

    Connections between the interdecadal variability in North Atlantic temperatures and biological cycling have been widely hypothesized. However, it is unclear whether such connections are due to small changes in basin-averaged temperatures indicated by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Index, or whether both biological cycling and the AMO index are causally linked to changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). We examine interdecadal variability in the annual and month-by-month diatom biomass in two Earth System Models with the same formulations of atmospheric, land, sea ice and ocean biogeochemical dynamics but different formulations of ocean physics and thus different AMOC structures and variability. In the isopycnal-layered ESM2G, strong interdecadal changes in surface salinity associated with changes in AMOC produce spatially heterogeneous variability in convection, nutrient supply and thus diatom biomass. These changes also produce changes in ice cover, shortwave absorption and temperature and hence the AMO Index. Off West Greenland, these changes are consistent with observed changes in fisheries and support climate as a causal driver. In the level-coordinate ESM2M, nutrient supply is much higher and interdecadal changes in diatom biomass are much smaller in amplitude and not strongly linked to the AMO index.

  1. Final Report of the Mid-Atlantic Marine Wildlife Surveys, Modeling, and Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saracino-Brown, Jocelyn [Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Washington, DC (United States); Smith, Courtney [Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Washington, DC (United States); Gilman, Patrick [Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Washington, DC (United States)

    2013-07-01

    The Wind Program hosted a two-day workshop on July 24-25, 2012 with scientists and regulators engaged in marine ecological survey, modeling, and database efforts pertaining to the waters of the Mid-Atlantic region. The workshop was planned by Federal agency, academic, and private partners to promote collaboration between ongoing offshore ecological survey efforts, and to promote the collaborative development of complementary predictive models and compatible databases. The meeting primarily focused on efforts to establish and predict marine mammal, seabird, and sea turtle abundance, density, and distributions extending from the shoreline to the edge of the Exclusive Economic Zone between Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts and Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

  2. Comparisons of Box Model Calculations and Measurements of Formaldehyde from the 1997 North Atlantic Regional Experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frost, G. J.; Fried, Alan; Lee, Y.- N.; Wert, B.; Henry, B.; Drummond, J. R.; Evans, M. J.; Fehsenfeld, Fred C.; Goldan, P. D.; Holloway, J. S.; Hubler, Gerhard F.; Jakoubek, R.; Jobson, B Tom T.; Knapp, K.; Kuster, W. C.; Roberts, J.; Rudolph, Jochen; Ryerson, T. B.; Stohl, A.; Stroud, C.; Sueper, D. T.; Trainer, Michael; Williams, J.

    2002-04-18

    Formaldehyde (CH2O) measurements from two independent instruments are compared with photochemical box model calculations. The measurements were made on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration P-3 aircraft as part of the 1997 North Atlantic Regional Experiment (NARE 97). The data set considered here consists of air masses sampled between 0 and 8 km over the North Atlantic Ocean which do not show recent influence from emissions or transport. These air masses therefore should be in photochemical steady state with respect to CH2O when constrained by the other P-3 measurements, and methane oxidation was expected to be the predominant source of CH2O in these air masses. For this data set both instruments measured identical CH2O concentrations to within 40 parts per trillion by volume (pptv) on average over the 0–800 pptv range, although differences larger than the combined 2s total uncertainty estimates were observed between the two instruments in 11% of the data. Both instruments produced higher CH2O concentrations than the model in more than 90% of this data set, with a median measured-modeled [CH2O] difference of 0.13 or 0.18 ppbv (depending on the instrument), or about a factor of 2. Such large differences cannot be accounted for by varying model input parameters within their respective uncertainty ranges. After examining the possible reasons for the model-measurement discrepancy, we conclude that there are probably one or more additional unknown sources of CH2O in the North Atlantic troposphere.

  3. An Integrated Environmental Assessment of the US Mid-Atlantic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    James D. Wickham; K.B. Jones; Kurt H. Riitters; R.V. O' Neill; R.D. Tankersley; E.R. Smith; A.C. Neale; D.J. Chaloud

    1999-01-01

    Many of today's environmental problems are in scope and their effects overlap and interact. We developed a simple method to provide an integrated assessment of environmental conditions and estimate cumulative impacts across a large region, by combining data on land-cover, population, roads, streams, air pollution, and topography. The integrated assessment...

  4. A coarse resolution North Atlantic ocean circulation model: an intercomparison study with a paleoceanographic example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Seidov

    Full Text Available Paleoreconstructions suggest that during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM the North Atlantic circulation was noticeably different from its present state. However, the glacial salt conveyor belt is believed to be similar to the present-day's conveyor, albeit weaker and shallower because of an increased freshwater flux in high-latitudes. We present here the investigation of the conveyor operation based on ocean circulation modelling using two numerical models in parallel. The GFDL primitive equation model and a planetary geostrophic model are employed to address the problem of the paleocirculation modelling in cases of uncertain and sparse data comprising the glacial surface boundary conditions. The role of different simplifications that may be used in the ocean climate studies, including the role of grid resolution, bottom topography, coast-line, etc., versus glacial-interglacial changes of the ocean surface climatology is considered. The LGM reverse conveyor gyre appeared to be the most noticeable feature of the glacial-to-interglacial alteration of the ocean circulation. The reversed upper-ocean conveyor, weaker and subducting 'normal' conveyor in the intermediate depths, and the change of the deep-ocean return flow route are robust signatures of the glacial North Atlantic climate. The results are found to be 'model-independent' and fairly insensitive to all factors other than the onset of the glacial surface conditions.

  5. A coarse resolution North Atlantic ocean circulation model: an intercomparison study with a paleoceanographic example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Seidov

    1996-02-01

    Full Text Available Paleoreconstructions suggest that during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM the North Atlantic circulation was noticeably different from its present state. However, the glacial salt conveyor belt is believed to be similar to the present-day's conveyor, albeit weaker and shallower because of an increased freshwater flux in high-latitudes. We present here the investigation of the conveyor operation based on ocean circulation modelling using two numerical models in parallel. The GFDL primitive equation model and a planetary geostrophic model are employed to address the problem of the paleocirculation modelling in cases of uncertain and sparse data comprising the glacial surface boundary conditions. The role of different simplifications that may be used in the ocean climate studies, including the role of grid resolution, bottom topography, coast-line, etc., versus glacial-interglacial changes of the ocean surface climatology is considered. The LGM reverse conveyor gyre appeared to be the most noticeable feature of the glacial-to-interglacial alteration of the ocean circulation. The reversed upper-ocean conveyor, weaker and subducting 'normal' conveyor in the intermediate depths, and the change of the deep-ocean return flow route are robust signatures of the glacial North Atlantic climate. The results are found to be 'model-independent' and fairly insensitive to all factors other than the onset of the glacial surface conditions.

  6. Modeling the impact of iron and phosphorus limitations on nitrogen fixation in the Atlantic Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. R. Hood

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The overarching goal of this study is to simulate subsurface N* (sensu, Gruber and Sarmiento, 1997; GS97 anomaly patterns in the North Atlantic Ocean and determine the basin wide rates of N2-fixation that are required to do so. We present results from a new Atlantic implementation of a coupled physical-biogeochemical model that includes an explicit, dynamic representation of N2-fixation with light, nitrogen, phosphorus and iron limitations, and variable stoichiometric ratios. The model is able to reproduce nitrogen, phosphorus and iron concentration variability to first order. The latter is achieved by incorporating iron deposition directly into the model's detrital iron compartment which allows the model to reproduce sharp near surface gradients in dissolved iron concentration off the west coast of Africa and deep dissolved iron concentrations that have been observed in recent observational studies. The model can reproduce the large scale N* anomaly patterns but requires relatively high rates of surface nitrogen fixation to do so (1.8×1012 moles N yr−1 from 10° N–30° N, 3.4×1012 moles N yr−1 from 25° S–65° N. In the model the surface nitrogen fixation rate patterns are not co-located with subsurface gradients in N*. Rather, the fixed nitrogen is advected away from its source prior to generating a subsurface N* anomaly. Changes in the phosphorus remineralization rate (relative to nitrogen linearly determine the surface nitrogen fixation rate because they change the degree of phosphorus limitation, which is the dominant limitation in the Atlantic in the model. Phosphorus remineralization rate must be increased by about a factor of 2 (relative to nitrogen in order to generate subsurface N* anomalies that are comparable to the observations. We conclude that N2-fixation rate estimates for the Atlantic (and globally may need to be revised upward, which

  7. Role of the Convective Scheme in Modeling Initiation and Intensification of Tropical Depressions over the North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duvel, Jean Philippe; Camargo, Suzana; Sobel, Adam

    2016-04-01

    Modifications of the large-scale environment related to intraseasonal (MJO) and interannual (ENSO) time-scale variability or to global climate warming may have important impacts on the tropical cyclonic activity. This sensitivity of tropical cyclones (TC) on environmental changes can now be studied using General Circulation Models (GCM). Before doing sensitivity studies with a GCM, it is interesting to assess the representation of the TC activity for different configurations (resolution, parameterization) of the GCM in present climate conditions and to trace possible causes of bias in TC number, location or strength. A possible approach to do this assessment is to separate initiation and intensification processes. By using either GCM output, or meteorological analysis combined to TC observation databases, it is possible to study the condition of formation of tropical depressions vortices (TDV) at an early stage and their possible intensification into a TC (say the Tropical Storm stage). We use the LMDZ GCM to study the sensitivity of TDV characteristics to different entrainment and closure formulations of the convective scheme. The study focuses on the Tropical North Atlantic using the "zoom" capability of the LMDZ GCM. The horizontal resolution of the model is set to 0.75° over a large region of the North Atlantic and West Africa. The GCM is free to run in this region and is tied to ERA-Interim reanalysis outside that region, with intermediate relaxation times in-between. We use the Tiedtke convective scheme with entrainment and closure based on the moisture convergence, or with an entrainment based on the relative humidity of the environment, and additionally a closure based on CAPE. Each configuration is run for 10 years between 2000 and 2009 with prescribed SST. In summary, the convective entrainment based on the relative humidity in the environment deepens the TDV in LMDZ, resulting in more TDV and TC. The convective closure mitigates this tendency and

  8. Modulation of extremes in the Atlantic region by modes of climate variability/change: A mechanistic coupled regional model study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saravanan, Ramalingam [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

    2015-01-09

    During the course of this project, we have accomplished the following: 1) Explored the parameter space of component models to minimize regional model bias 2) Assessed the impact of air-sea interaction on hurricanes, focusing in particular on the role of the oceanic barrier layer 3) Contributed to the activities of the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group 4) Assessed the impact of lateral and lower boundary conditions on extreme flooding events in the U.S. Midwest in regional model simulations 5) Analyzed the concurrent impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Meridional Mode on Atlantic Hurricane activity using observations and regional model simulations

  9. FUZZY DECISION ANALYSIS FOR INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

    Science.gov (United States)

    A fuzzy decision analysis method for integrating ecological indicators is developed. This is a combination of a fuzzy ranking method and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The method is capable ranking ecosystems in terms of environmental conditions and suggesting cumula...

  10. Observed and modeled pathways of the Iceland Scotland Overflow Water in the eastern North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Sijia; Lozier, Susan; Zenk, Walter; Bower, Amy; Johns, William

    2017-12-01

    The spreading of Iceland Scotland Overflow Water (ISOW) in the eastern North Atlantic has largely been studied in an Eulerian frame using numerical models or with observations limited to a few locations. No study to date has provided a comprehensive description of the ISOW spreading pathways from both Eulerian and Lagrangian perspectives. In this paper, we use a combination of previously unreported current meter data, hydrographic data, RAFOS float data, and a high resolution (1/12°) numerical ocean model to study the spreading pathways of ISOW from both of these perspectives. We identify three ISOW transport cores in the central Iceland Basin (∼59°N), with the major core along the eastern boundary of the Reykjanes Ridge (RR) and the other two in the basin interior. Based on trajectories of observed and/or numerical floats seeded along 59°N, we also describe the ISOW spreading pathways and quantify their relative importance. Within 10 years, 7-11% of ISOW from 59°N escapes into the Irminger Sea via gaps in the RR north of the Charlie Gibbs Fracture Zone (CGFZ); the water that moves through these gaps principally originates from the shallower ISOW layer along the RR eastern boundary. 10-13% travels further southward until the CGFZ, where it crosses westward into the western subpolar gyre. 18-21% of ISOW spreads southward along the eastern flank of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge into the Western European Basin (WEB). Most of the remaining water stays in the Iceland Basin over the 10-year period. A model-based investigation provides a first look at the temporal variability of these ISOW pathways. We find that the fraction of southward water exported into the WEB is anti-correlated with the export through the CGFZ, a result assumed to reflect these pathways' interactions with the North Atlantic Current in magnitude and/or position shift.

  11. Large-Scale Prediction of Seagrass Distribution Integrating Landscape Metrics and Environmental Factors: The Case of Cymodocea nodosa (Mediterranean–Atlantic)

    KAUST Repository

    Chefaoui, Rosa M.

    2015-05-05

    Understanding the factors that affect seagrass meadows encompassing their entire range of distribution is challenging yet important for their conservation. Here, we predict the realized and potential distribution for the species Cymodocea nodosa modelling its environmental niche in the Mediterranean and adjacent Atlantic coastlines. We use a combination of environmental variables and landscape metrics to perform a suite of predictive algorithms which enables examination of the niche and find suitable habitats for the species. The most relevant environmental variables defining the distribution of C. nodosa were sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity. We found suitable habitats at SST from 5.8 °C to 26.4 °C and salinity ranging from 17.5 to 39.3. Optimal values of mean winter wave height ranged between 1.2 and 1.5 m, while waves higher than 2.5 m seemed to limit the presence of the species. The influence of nutrients and pH, despite having weight on the models, was not so clear in terms of ranges that confine the distribution of the species. Landscape metrics able to capture variation in the coastline enhanced significantly the accuracy of the models, despite the limitations caused by the scale of the study. We found potential suitable areas not occupied by the seagrass mainly in coastal regions of North Africa and the Adriatic coast of Italy. The present study describes the realized and potential distribution of a seagrass species, providing the first global model of the factors that can be shaping the environmental niche of C. nodosa throughout its range. We identified the variables constraining its distribution as well as thresholds delineating its environmental niche. Landscape metrics showed promising prospects for the prediction of coastal species dependent on the shape of the coast. By contrasting predictive approaches, we defined the variables affecting the distributional areas that seem unsuitable for C. nodosa as well as those suitable habitats not

  12. Large-Scale Prediction of Seagrass Distribution Integrating Landscape Metrics and Environmental Factors: The Case of Cymodocea nodosa (Mediterranean–Atlantic)

    KAUST Repository

    Chefaoui, Rosa M.; Assis, Jorge; Duarte, Carlos M.; Serrã o, Ester A.

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the factors that affect seagrass meadows encompassing their entire range of distribution is challenging yet important for their conservation. Here, we predict the realized and potential distribution for the species Cymodocea nodosa modelling its environmental niche in the Mediterranean and adjacent Atlantic coastlines. We use a combination of environmental variables and landscape metrics to perform a suite of predictive algorithms which enables examination of the niche and find suitable habitats for the species. The most relevant environmental variables defining the distribution of C. nodosa were sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity. We found suitable habitats at SST from 5.8 °C to 26.4 °C and salinity ranging from 17.5 to 39.3. Optimal values of mean winter wave height ranged between 1.2 and 1.5 m, while waves higher than 2.5 m seemed to limit the presence of the species. The influence of nutrients and pH, despite having weight on the models, was not so clear in terms of ranges that confine the distribution of the species. Landscape metrics able to capture variation in the coastline enhanced significantly the accuracy of the models, despite the limitations caused by the scale of the study. We found potential suitable areas not occupied by the seagrass mainly in coastal regions of North Africa and the Adriatic coast of Italy. The present study describes the realized and potential distribution of a seagrass species, providing the first global model of the factors that can be shaping the environmental niche of C. nodosa throughout its range. We identified the variables constraining its distribution as well as thresholds delineating its environmental niche. Landscape metrics showed promising prospects for the prediction of coastal species dependent on the shape of the coast. By contrasting predictive approaches, we defined the variables affecting the distributional areas that seem unsuitable for C. nodosa as well as those suitable habitats not

  13. Estimating tag loss of the Atlantic Horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus, using a multi-state model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Catherine Alyssa; McGowan, Conor P.; Grand, James B.; Smith, David

    2012-01-01

    The Atlantic Horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus, is a valuable resource along the Mid-Atlantic coast which has, in recent years, experienced new management paradigms due to increased concern about this species role in the environment. While current management actions are underway, many acknowledge the need for improved and updated parameter estimates to reduce the uncertainty within the management models. Specifically, updated and improved estimates of demographic parameters such as adult crab survival in the regional population of interest, Delaware Bay, could greatly enhance these models and improve management decisions. There is however, some concern that difficulties in tag resighting or complete loss of tags could be occurring. As apparent from the assumptions of a Jolly-Seber model, loss of tags can result in a biased estimate and underestimate a survival rate. Given that uncertainty, as a first step towards estimating an unbiased estimate of adult survival, we first took steps to estimate the rate of tag loss. Using data from a double tag mark-resight study conducted in Delaware Bay and Program MARK, we designed a multi-state model to allow for the estimation of mortality of each tag separately and simultaneously.

  14. Crude fucoidan content in two North Atlantic kelp species, Saccharina latissima and Laminaria digitata - seasonal variation and impact of environmental factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruhn, Annette; Janicek, Tina; Manns, Dirk Martin

    2017-01-01

    , the biochemical composition of brown algae displays a seasonal fluctuation driven by environmental factors and endogenous rhythms. To cultivate and harvest kelps with high yields of fucoidans, knowledge is needed on seasonal variation and impact of environmental conditions on the fucoidan content of brown algae....... The relations between the fucoidan content and key environmental factors (irradiance, nutrient availability, salinity and exposure) were examined by sampling natural populations of the common North Atlantic kelps, Saccharina latissima and Laminaria digitata, over a full year at Hanstholm in the North Sea...... an increased content of fucoidan in a cultivation scenario and emphasizes the need for knowledge on performance of local kelp ecotypes....

  15. Crude fucoidan content in two North Atlantic kelp species, Saccharina latissima and Laminaria digitata - seasonal variation and impact of environmental factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruhn, Annette; Janicek, Tina; Manns, Dirk Martin

    2017-01-01

    , the biochemical composition of brown algae displays a seasonal fluctuation driven by environmental factors and endogenous rhythms. To cultivate and harvest kelps with high yields of fucoidans, knowledge is needed on seasonal variation and impact of environmental conditions on the fucoidan content of brown algae....... The relations between the fucoidan content and key environmental factors (irradiance, nutrient availability, salinity and exposure) were examined by sampling natural populations of the common North Atlantic kelps, Saccharina latissima and Laminaria digitata, over a full year at Hanstholm in the North Sea...

  16. Modeling concentrations and fluxes of atmospheric CO2 in the North East Atlantic region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geels, C.; Christensen, J.H.; Hansen, A.W.

    2001-01-01

    As part of the Danish NEAREX project a three-dimensional Eulerian hemispheric air pollution model is used to study the transport and concentrations of atmospheric CO2 in the North East Atlantic region. The model domain covers the major part of the Northern Hemisphere and currently the model...

  17. Environmental exposure of Atlantic horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) early life stages to essential trace elements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakker, Aaron K; Dutton, Jessica; Sclafani, Matthew; Santangelo, Nicholas

    2016-12-01

    This study investigated the accumulation Co, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Se, and Zn in Atlantic horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) early life stages (egg, embryo and larvae) and compared the concentrations to the concentration of each element in sediment, pore water and overlying water for 5 sites across Long Island, NY. For the majority of the sites, all essential trace elements accumulated in the embryos and larvae. However, many of the embryos and larvae at specific sites presented different concentration patterns which had no apparent relationship with the local habitat sediment and water values. Generally, Cu, Fe, and Se sequentially increased from egg stage through larval stages for the majority of sites, while Co, Mn, and Ni only did for a few sites. Zinc also showed an increase across sites from embryo to larval stage, however was the only one to show a decrease in concentration from egg to embryo stage at all sites. Interestingly, Mn at Manhasset Bay presented embryo and larval stages to be 50 fold greater than all other sites while the egg stage showed similar values to other sites; this high degree of uptake could be due to a high concentration in the overlying water. All essential trace elements can be accumulated from the environment but greater concentrations may be influenced by abiotic factors and the predominant uptake route (aqueous versus diet) at each life stage. Future laboratory experiments are required to investigate factors that influence essential trace element accumulation and loss in horseshoe crab early life stages. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Energy and externality environmental regional model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldi, L.; Bianchi, A.; Peri, M.

    2000-01-01

    The use of environmental externalities in both territorial management and the direction of energy and environment, faces the difficulties arising from their calculation. The so-called MACBET regional model, which has been constructed for Lombardy, is a first brand new attempt to overcome them. MACBET is a calculation model to assess environmental and employment externalities connected to energy use [it

  19. Fuzzy Decision Analysis for Integrated Environmental Vulnerability Assessment of the Mid-Atlantic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liem T. Tran; C. Gregory Knight; Robert V. O' Neill; Elizabeth R. Smith; Kurt H. Riitters; James D. Wickham

    2002-01-01

    A fuzzy decision analysis method for integrating ecological indicators was developed. This was a combination of a fuzzy ranking method and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The method was capable of ranking ecosystems in terms of environmental conditions and suggesting cumulative impacts across a large region. Using data on land cover, population, roads, streams,...

  20. Early stress responses in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) exposed to environmentally relevant concentrations of uranium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song You; Salbu, Brit; Heier, Lene Sørlie; Teien, Hans-Christian; Lind, Ole-Christian; Oughton, Deborah; Petersen, Karina; Rosseland, Bjørn Olav; Skipperud, Lindis; Tollefsen, Knut Erik

    2012-01-01

    Uranium (U) is a naturally occurring heavy metal widely used in many military and civil applications. Uranium contamination and the associated potential adverse effects of U on the aquatic environment have been debated during recent years. In order to understand the effect and mode of action (MoA) of U in vivo, juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) were exposed to 0.25 mg/L, 0.5 mg/L and 1.0 mg/L waterborne depleted uranyl acetate, respectively, in a static system for 48 h. The U concentrations in the gill and liver were analyzed by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and the resulting biological effects were determined by a combination of analysis of gene expression and micronuclei formation. The hepatic transcriptional level of 12 biomarker genes from four stress–response categories, including oxidative stress (γ-glutamyl cysteine synthetase (GCS), glutathione reductase (GR), glutathione peroxidase (GPx)), DNA damage and repair (P53, cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor 1 (P21), growth arrest and DNA damage-inducible gene gamma (Gadd45G), proliferating cell nuclear antigen (PCNA), Rad51), apoptosis (Bcl2-associated X protein (BAX), Bcl-x, Caspase 6A,) and protein degradation (Ubiquitin) were evaluated by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (q-rtPCR). The results clearly showed accumulation of U in the gill and liver with increasing concentrations of U in the exposure water. The effects of U on differential hepatic gene expression also occurred in a concentration-dependent manner, although deviations from ideal concentration–response relationships were observed at the highest U concentration (1.0 mg/L). All the genes tested were found to be up-regulated by U while no significant micronuclei formation was identified. The results suggest that U may cause oxidative stress in fish liver at concentrations greater than 0.25 mg/L, giving rise to clear induction of several toxicologically relevant biomarker genes, although no significant

  1. Dissolution of calcium carbonate: observations and model results in the subpolar North Atlantic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Friis

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the significance of in situ dissolution of calcium carbonate above its saturation horizons using observations from the open subpolar North Atlantic [sNA] and to a lesser extent a 3-D biogeochemical model. The sNA is particularly well suited for observation-based detections of in situ, i.e. shallow-depth CaCO3 dissolution [SDCCD] as it is a region of high CaCO3 production, deep CaCO3 saturation horizons, and precisely-defined pre-formed alkalinity. Based on the analysis of a comprehensive alkalinity data set we find that SDCCD does not appear to be a significant process in the open sNA. The results from the model support the observational findings by indicating that there is not a significant need of SDCCD to explain observed patterns of alkalinity in the North Atlantic. Instead our investigation points to the importance of mixing processes for the redistribution of alkalinity from dissolution of CaCO3 from below its saturation horizons. However, mixing has recently been neglected for a number of studies that called for SDCCD in the sNA and on global scale.

  2. Influence of Tropical South Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures on the Indian Summer monsoon in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucharski, Fred; Joshi, Manish K.

    2017-04-01

    In this study the teleconnection from the tropical south Atlantic to the Indian monsoon has been assessed in observations and in 32 models from the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). All models show that the regression pattern of tropics-wide Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies onto the tropical south Atlantic index correlates well with that in observations, even though with varying spatial standard deviations. However, only about half of the 32 models considered show the correct sign of rainfall response over India to a warm anomaly in the south tropical Atlantic, which is a reduction of rainfall. On the other hand, models generally do show large-scale responses broadly consistent with the observations, and the signal over India depends on relatively subtle changes in the response. This response to a tropical south Atlantic warm (cold) anomaly is a low-level quadrupole in streamfunction with an anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly over the Arabian Sea and India. This anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly leads to a weakening (strengthening) of the Somali jet and low-level divergence (convergence) over India, both inducing a reduction (increase) of Indian rainfall. The models which do not show the correct rainfall response over India also show a response similar to the one indicated above, but with maximum of the anticyclonic (cyclonic) response shifted to the western Pacific. The large-scale Walker circulation adjustment to the tropical south Atlantic SST anomalies is identified as one of the factors which account for the differences in the low-level streamfunction response. Models (and the observations) with the correct sign of the rainfall signal over India show the dominant upper-level convergence (divergence) as response to a warm (cold) tropical south Atlantic in the western Pacific region, whereas models with the wrong sign of the rainfall signal show it predominantly in the central-eastern Pacific

  3. Glacial climate sensitivity to different states of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: results from the IPSL model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Kageyama

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Paleorecords from distant locations on the globe show rapid and large amplitude climate variations during the last glacial period. Here we study the global climatic response to different states of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC as a potential explanation for these climate variations and their possible connections. We analyse three glacial simulations obtained with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model and characterised by different AMOC strengths (18, 15 and 2 Sv resulting from successive ~0.1 Sv freshwater perturbations in the North Atlantic. These AMOC states suggest the existence of a freshwater threshold for which the AMOC collapses. A weak (18 to 15 Sv AMOC decrease results in a North Atlantic and European cooling. This cooling is not homogeneous, with even a slight warming over the Norwegian Sea. Convection in this area is active in both experiments, but surprisingly stronger in the 15 Sv simulation, which appears to be related to interactions with the atmospheric circulation and sea-ice cover. Far from the North Atlantic, the climatic response is not significant. The climate differences for an AMOC collapse (15 to 2 Sv are much larger and of global extent. The timing of the climate response to this AMOC collapse suggests teleconnection mechanisms. Our analyses focus on the North Atlantic and surrounding regions, the tropical Atlantic and the Indian monsoon region. The North Atlantic cooling associated with the AMOC collapse induces a cyclonic atmospheric circulation anomaly centred over this region, which modulates the eastward advection of cold air over the Eurasian continent. This can explain why the cooling is not as strong over western Europe as over the North Atlantic. In the Tropics, the southward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone appears to be strongest over the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific and results from an adjustment of the atmospheric and oceanic heat transports. Finally, the

  4. Environmental patterns and biomass distribution of gelatinous macrozooplankton. Three study cases in the South-western Atlantic Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. W. Mianzan

    2000-12-01

    Full Text Available Periodic swarms or blooms of gelatinous macrozooplankton have a negative effect on many human activities such as tourism, fisheries, and industry, but for several reasons (sampling procedures, underestimation of their real abundance, etc., they have often been neglected in the local literature. The high spatial resolution exercise of the South-western Atlantic anchovy Engraulis anchoita Recruitment Project (SARP was therefore also suitable for estimating standing stocks of jelly macrozooplankton, attempting to establish particular environmental patterns exerting control on the spatial distribution of these facultative carnivorous predators in coastal frontal environments. These studies were carried out through a sampling programme on board the German R/V Meteor in three different systems, convergence and divergent, in the South-western Atlantic Ocean: Region A (42°S on the Argentine shelf, characterised by tidal mixing fronts; Region B (36°S, the freshwater outflow from Río de la Plata; and Region C (28°S, under upwelling events in subtropical waters on the Brazilian shelf. In general, a dominance of gelatinous macrozooplankton, compared with the other fraction of macrozooplankton and micronekton was observed. Mean standing stock of the gelatinous zooplankton was always greater than 50% of organic carbon (org. C in every section analysed. The lobate ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi dominated the zooplankton biomass in Region A, Argentina. It represented 60% of total org. C and was more abundant at the stratified zone of the front. Ctenophores were also dominant in Region B, Río de la Plata, where the related species Mnemiopsis mccradyi and the cydippid ctenophore Pleurobrachia pileus comprised 81% of total org. C. Mnemiopsis was most common in areas of vertical thermal and saline stratification, while Pleurobrachia was dominant in the less stratified areas. Gelatinous zooplankton was also the principal component of the macrozooplankton biomass

  5. Southeast Atlantic Cloud Properties in a Multivariate Statistical Model - How Relevant is Air Mass History for Local Cloud Properties?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Julia; Cermak, Jan; Andersen, Hendrik

    2017-04-01

    This study aims at untangling the impacts of external dynamics and local conditions on cloud properties in the Southeast Atlantic (SEA) by combining satellite and reanalysis data using multivariate statistics. The understanding of clouds and their determinants at different scales is important for constraining the Earth's radiative budget, and thus prominent in climate-system research. In this study, SEA stratocumulus cloud properties are observed not only as the result of local environmental conditions but also as affected by external dynamics and spatial origins of air masses entering the study area. In order to assess to what extent cloud properties are impacted by aerosol concentration, air mass history, and meteorology, a multivariate approach is conducted using satellite observations of aerosol and cloud properties (MODIS, SEVIRI), information on aerosol species composition (MACC) and meteorological context (ERA-Interim reanalysis). To account for the often-neglected but important role of air mass origin, information on air mass history based on HYSPLIT modeling is included in the statistical model. This multivariate approach is intended to lead to a better understanding of the physical processes behind observed stratocumulus cloud properties in the SEA.

  6. A minimal model of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability: its genesis and predictability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ou, Hsien-Wang [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Palisades, NY (United States)

    2012-02-15

    Through a box model of the subpolar North Atlantic, we examine the genesis and predictability of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), posited as a linear perturbation sustained by the stochastic atmosphere. Postulating a density-dependent thermohaline circulation (THC), the latter would strongly differentiate the thermal and saline damping, and facilitate a negative feedback between the two fields. This negative feedback preferentially suppresses the low-frequency thermal variance to render a broad multidecadal peak bounded by the thermal and saline damping time. We offer this ''differential variance suppression'' as an alternative paradigm of the AMV in place of the ''damped oscillation'' - the latter generally not allowed by the deterministic dynamics and in any event bears no relation to the thermal peak. With the validated dynamics, we then assess the AMV predictability based on the relative entropy - a difference of the forecast and climatological probability distributions, which decays through both error growth and dynamical damping. Since the stochastic forcing is mainly in the surface heat flux, the thermal noise grows rapidly and together with its climatological variance limited by the THC-aided thermal damping, they strongly curtail the thermal predictability. The latter may be prolonged if the initial thermal and saline anomalies are of the same sign, but even rare events of less than 1% chance of occurrence yield a predictable time that is well short of a decade; we contend therefore that the AMV is in effect unpredictable. (orig.)

  7. Model under-representation of decadal Pacific trade wind trends and its link to tropical Atlantic bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kajtar, Jules B.; Santoso, Agus; McGregor, Shayne; England, Matthew H.; Baillie, Zak

    2018-02-01

    The strengthening of the Pacific trade winds in recent decades has been unmatched in the observational record stretching back to the early twentieth century. This wind strengthening has been connected with numerous climate-related phenomena, including accelerated sea-level rise in the western Pacific, alterations to Indo-Pacific ocean currents, increased ocean heat uptake, and a slow-down in the rate of global-mean surface warming. Here we show that models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 underestimate the observed range of decadal trends in the Pacific trade winds, despite capturing the range in decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability. Analysis of observational data suggests that tropical Atlantic SST contributes considerably to the Pacific trade wind trends, whereas the Atlantic feedback in coupled models is muted. Atmosphere-only simulations forced by observed SST are capable of recovering the time-variation and the magnitude of the trade wind trends. Hence, we explore whether it is the biases in the mean or in the anomalous SST patterns that are responsible for the under-representation in fully coupled models. Over interannual time-scales, we find that model biases in the patterns of Atlantic SST anomalies are the strongest source of error in the precipitation and atmospheric circulation response. In contrast, on decadal time-scales, the magnitude of the model biases in Atlantic mean SST are directly linked with the trade wind variability response.

  8. Modeling the drift of massive icebergs to the subtropical North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Condron, A.; Hill, J. C.

    2013-12-01

    New evidence from high-resolution seafloor bathymetry data indicates that massive (>300m thick) icebergs from the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) drifted south to the tip of Florida during the last deglaciation. This finding is particularly exciting as it contradicts evidence from marine sediments that icebergs were mainly confined to the subpolar North Atlantic (50 - 70N) at this time. Indeed, the freshwater released from icebergs melting in the subpolar gyre is repeatedly cited as a main trigger for a slow-down of the Atlantic MOC in the past, and the possible cause of any climate cooling related to the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet in the future. Using a sophisticated iceberg model (MITberg), coupled to a high (18-km; 1/6 deg.) resolution ocean model (MITgcm), we investigate the ocean circulation dynamics required to allow icebergs to drift to the southern tip of Florida. We find that icebergs only reach this location if they turn right at the Grand Banks of Newfoundland, and stay inshore of the Gulf Stream all the way to Florida. Modern-day circulation dynamics do not readily allow this to happen as cold, southward flowing, Labrador Current Water (important for iceberg survival) has little penetration south of Cape Hatteras. However, when a liquid meltwater flood is released from Hudson Bay at the same time, icebergs are rapidly transported (inshore of the Gulf Stream) in a narrow, buoyant, coastal current all the way to southern Florida. The meltwater and icebergs result in a significant freshening of the subtropical North Atlantic and weaken the strength of the Gulf Stream, suggesting such an event would have a large cooling effect on climate. We are only able to simulate the flow of meltwater and icebergs to the subtropics by modeling ocean circulation at a resolution that is 5 - 10 times higher than the majority of existing paleoclimate models; at lower resolutions the narrow, coastal boundary currents important for iceberg transport to the subtropics are

  9. Environmental contaminants in fillets of sea-run Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) from the Gulf of Maine Distinct Population Segment

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of the Interior — Between 2008 and 2010, skin‐on fillets from seven dead adult sea‐run Atlantic salmon from the Gulf of Maine Distinct Population Segment (GOM DPS) were analyzed for...

  10. Models in environmental regulatory decision making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Committee on Models in the Regulatory Decision Process, National Research Council

    2007-01-01

    .... Models help EPA explain environmental phenomena in settings where direct observations are limited or unavailable, and anticipate the effects of agency policies on the environment, human health and the economy...

  11. Hydrological models for environmental management

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bolgov, Mikhail V

    2002-01-01

    .... Stochastic modelling and forecasting cannot at present adequately represent the characteristics of hydrological regimes, nor analyze the influence of water on processes that arise in biological...

  12. The ability of general circulation models to simulate tropical cyclones and their precursors over the North Atlantic main development region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daloz, Anne Sophie; Chauvin, Fabrice [Groupe de Modelisation Grande Echelle et Climat, CNRM-GAME, Meteo-France, Toulouse Cedex 1 (France); Walsh, Kevin [University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Lavender, Sally; Abbs, Deborah [CSIRO Atmospheric and Marine Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia); Roux, Frank [Universite de Toulouse and Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Laboratoire d' Aerologie, Toulouse (France)

    2012-10-15

    The ability of General Circulation Models (GCMs) to generate Tropical Cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR; 10-20 N, 20-80 W; Goldenberg and Shapiro in J Clim 9:1169-1187, 1996) is examined through a subset of ocean-atmosphere coupled simulations from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel data set and a high-resolution (0.5 ) Sea Surface Temperature (SST)-forced simulation from the Australian Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model GCM. The results are compared with National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP-2) and European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40) reanalyses over a common period from 1980 to 1998. Important biases in the representation of the TC activity are encountered over the MDR. This study emphasizes the strong link in the GCMs between African Easterly Waves (AEWs) and TC activity in this region. However, the generation of AEWs is not a sufficient condition alone for the models to produce TCs. Precipitation over the Sahel, especially rainfall over the Fouta Djallon highlands (cf. Fig. 1), is playing a role in the generation of TCs over the MDR. The influence of large-scale fields such as SST, vertical wind shear and tropospheric humidity on TC genesis is also examined. The ability of TC genesis indices, such as the Genesis Potential Index and the Convective Yearly Genesis Potential, to represent TC activity over the MDR in simulations at low to high spatial resolutions is analysed. These indices are found to be a reasonable method for comparing cyclogenesis in different models, even though other factors such as AEW activity should also be considered. (orig.)

  13. Modelled spatial and seasonal distribution of Blue Whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) larvae in the North-East Atlantic (1951 to 2005)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2014-01-01

    Blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou, http://www.marinespecies.org/aphia.php?p=taxdetails&id=126439) is a small mesopelagic planktivorous gadoid found throughout the North-East Atlantic. This data contains the results of a model-based analysis of larvae captured by the Continuous Plankton...

  14. Appendix E of the Final Report of the Mid-Atlantic Marine Wildlife Surveys, Modeling, and Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2013-07-01

    The Wind Program hosted a two-day workshop on July 24-25, 2012 with scientists and regulators engaged in marine ecological survey, modeling, and database efforts pertaining to the waters of the Mid-Atlantic region. This is the fifth appendix to the report, the bibliography of references.

  15. Appendix C of the Final Report of the Mid-Atlantic Marine Wildlife Surveys, Modeling, and Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2013-07-01

    The Wind Program hosted a two-day workshop on July 24-25, 2012 with scientists and regulators engaged in marine ecological survey, modeling, and database efforts pertaining to the waters of the Mid-Atlantic region. This is the third appendix to the report, the compendium of pre-workshop answers.

  16. Magnetization modeling in the north and equatorial Atlantic Ocean using MAGSAT data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayling, K. L.; Harrison, C. G. A.

    1986-01-01

    Magsat 2 x 2-deg scalar anomalous-magnetic-field data (Langel et al., 1982) for the northern and equatorial Atlantic are inverted and combined with physiographic data and laboratory results on the magnetization of oceanic rocks and the oceanic crust to construct models explaining the shorter-wavelength component of the anomalies. An annihilator is applied to the inversion results to eliminate reverse-magnetized sources and facilitate comparisons of areas inverted separately, and a latitude effect on source spacing is tentatively attributed to greater noise contamination at lower latitudes. It is found that remanent magnetization combined with considerable crustal thickening can best explain the high intensity levels observed, although viscous magnetization or contamination of the data by noncrustal sources must also be considered.

  17. Modelling environmental dynamics. Advances in goematic solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paegelow, Martin [Toulouse-2 Univ., 31 (France). GEODE UMR 5602 CNRS; Camacho Olmedo, Maria Teresa (eds.) [Granada Univ (Spain). Dpto. de Analisis Geografico Regional y Geografia Fisica

    2008-07-01

    Modelling environmental dynamics is critical to understanding and predicting the evolution of the environment in response to the large number of influences including urbanisation, climate change and deforestation. Simulation and modelling provide support for decision making in environmental management. The first chapter introduces terminology and provides an overview of methodological modelling approaches which may be applied to environmental and complex dynamics. Based on this introduction this book illustrates various models applied to a large variety of themes: deforestation in tropical regions, fire risk, natural reforestation in European mountains, agriculture, biodiversity, urbanism, climate change and land management for decision support, etc. These case studies, provided by a large international spectrum of researchers and presented in a uniform structure, focus particularly on methods and model validation so that this book is not only aimed at researchers and graduates but also at professionals. (orig.)

  18. A continuous time delay-difference type model (CTDDM) applied to stock assessment of the southern Atlantic albacore Thunnus alalunga

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIAO Baochao; LIU Qun; ZHANG Kui; Abdul BASET; Aamir Mahmood MEMON; Khadim Hussain MEMON; HAN Yanan

    2016-01-01

    A continuous time delay-difference model (CTDDM) has been established that considers continuous time delays of biological processes.The southern Atlantic albacore (Thunnus alalunga) stock is the one of the commercially important tuna population in the marine world.The age structured production model (ASPM) and the surplus production model (SPM) have already been used to assess the albacore stock.However,the ASPM requires detailed biological information and the SPM lacks the biological realism.In this study,we focus on applying a CTDDM to the southern Atlantic albacore (T.alalunga) species,which provides an alternative method to assess this fishery.It is the first time that CTDDM has been provided for assessing the Atlantic albacore (T.alalunga) fishery.CTDDM obtained the 80% confidence interval of MSY (maximum sustainable yield) of(21510 t,23118 t).The catch in 2011 (24100 t) is higher than the MSY values and the relative fishing mortality ratio (F2011/FMSY) is higher than 1.0.The results of CTDDM were analyzed to verify the proposed methodology and provide reference information for the sustainable management of the southern Atlantic albacore stock.The CTDDM treats the recruitment,the growth,and the mortality rates as all varying continuously over time and fills gaps between ASPM and SPM in this stock assessment.

  19. Biodiversity patterns, environmental drivers and indicator species on a High-temperature Hydrothermal edifice, mid-Atlantic ridge

    KAUST Repository

    Sarrazin, Jozée

    2015-04-25

    Knowledge on quantitative faunal distribution patterns of hydrothermal communities in slow-spreading vent fields is particularly scarce, despite the importance of these ridges in the global mid-ocean system. This study assessed the composition, abundance and diversity of 12 benthic faunal assemblages from various locations on the Eiffel Tower edifice (Lucky Strike vent field, Mid-Atlantic Ridge) and investigated the role of key environmental conditions (temperature, total dissolved iron (TdFe), sulfide (TdS), copper (TdCu) and pH) on the distribution of macro- and meiofaunal species at small spatial scales (< 1 m). There were differences in macro- and meiofaunal community structure between the different sampling locations, separating the hydrothermal community of the Eiffel Tower edifice into three types of microhabitats: (1) cold microhabitats characterized by low temperatures (<6 °C), high TdCu (up to 2.4±1.37 µmol l−1), high pH (up to 7.34±0.13) but low TdS concentrations (<6.98±5.01 µmol l−1); (2) warm microhabitats characterized by warmer temperatures (>6 °C), low pH (<6.5) and high TdS/TdFe concentrations (>12.8 µmol l−1/>1.1 µmol l−1 respectively); and (3) a third microhabitat characterized by intermediate abiotic conditions. Environmental conditions showed more variation in the warm microhabitats than in the cold microhabitats. In terms of fauna, the warm microhabitats had lower macro- and meiofaunal densities, and lower richness and Shannon diversity than the cold microhabitats. Six macrofaunal species (Branchipolynoe seepensis, Amathys lutzi, Bathymodiolus azoricus, Lepetodrilus fucensis, Protolira valvatoides and Chorocaris chacei) and three meiofaunal taxa (Paracanthonchus, Cephalochaetosoma and Microlaimus) were identified as being significant indicator species/taxa of particular microhabitats. Our results also highlight very specific niche separation for copepod juveniles among the different hydrothermal microhabitats. Some sampling

  20. Frequency Dependent Nudging of Hydrographic Data Into a Numerical Model of the North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, K. R.; Wright, D. G.

    2002-12-01

    Nudging is one of the simplest ways of assimilating data into ocean models and it has been used for many years in studies of large-scale ocean circulation. One of its drawbacks is the suppression of eddies when nudging an eddy-permitting ocean model strongly toward an observed seasonal climatology. We propose a straightforward extension of nudging in which the model's climatology, rather than its instantaneous state, is nudged toward the observed seasonal climatology. In effect we propose nudging in specific frequency bands that are centered on the discrete frequencies evident in the observed climatology (e.g. 0, 1/12 and 1/6 cycles per month). This extension of conventional nudging allows the difference between the observed and modeled climatologies arbitrarily to be made small while allowing variations outside the selected frequency bands to evolve freely. We show how the method can be implemented efficiently in complex models using a Kalman filter and also discuss the benefits of spatially smoothing the nudges. We conclude with a demonstration of frequency dependent nudging using a 1/3 degree model of the North Atlantic.

  1. The integrated environmental control model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rubin, E.S.; Berkenpas, M.B.; Kalagnanam, J.R. [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    1995-11-01

    The capability to estimate the performance and cost of emission control systems is critical to a variety of planning and analysis requirements faced by utilities, regulators, researchers and analysts in the public and private sectors. The computer model described in this paper has been developed for DOe to provide an up-to-date capability for analyzing a variety of pre-combustion, combustion, and post-combustion options in an integrated framework. A unique capability allows performance and costs to be modeled probabilistically, which allows explicit characterization of uncertainties and risks.

  2. Predictions of models for environmental radiological assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peres, Sueli da Silva; Lauria, Dejanira da Costa; Mahler, Claudio Fernando

    2011-01-01

    In the field of environmental impact assessment, models are used for estimating source term, environmental dispersion and transfer of radionuclides, exposure pathway, radiation dose and the risk for human beings Although it is recognized that the specific information of local data are important to improve the quality of the dose assessment results, in fact obtaining it can be very difficult and expensive. Sources of uncertainties are numerous, among which we can cite: the subjectivity of modelers, exposure scenarios and pathways, used codes and general parameters. The various models available utilize different mathematical approaches with different complexities that can result in different predictions. Thus, for the same inputs different models can produce very different outputs. This paper presents briefly the main advances in the field of environmental radiological assessment that aim to improve the reliability of the models used in the assessment of environmental radiological impact. The intercomparison exercise of model supplied incompatible results for 137 Cs and 60 Co, enhancing the need for developing reference methodologies for environmental radiological assessment that allow to confront dose estimations in a common comparison base. The results of the intercomparison exercise are present briefly. (author)

  3. Preparatory selection of sterilization regime for canned Natural Atlantic Mackerel with oil based on developed mathematical models of the process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maslov A. A.

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Definition of preparatory parameters for sterilization regime of canned "Natural Atlantic Mackerel with Oil" is the aim of current study. PRSC software developed at the department of automation and computer engineering is used for preparatory selection. To determine the parameters of process model, in laboratory autoclave AVK-30M the pre-trial process of sterilization and cooling in water with backpressure of canned "Natural Atlantic Mackerel with Oil" in can N 3 has been performed. Gathering information about the temperature in the autoclave sterilization chamber and the can with product has been carried out using Ellab TrackSense PRO loggers. Due to the obtained information three transfer functions for the product model have been identified: in the least heated area of autoclave, the average heated and the most heated. In PRSC programme temporary temperature dependences in the sterilization chamber have been built using this information. The model of sterilization process of canned "Natural Atlantic Mackerel with Oil" has been received after the pre-trial process. Then in the automatic mode the sterilization regime of canned "Natural Atlantic Mackerel with Oil" has been selected using the value of actual effect close to normative sterilizing effect (5.9 conditional minutes. Furthermore, in this study step-mode sterilization of canned "Natural Atlantic Mackerel with Oil" has been selected. Utilization of step-mode sterilization with the maximum temperature equal to 125 °C in the sterilization chamber allows reduce process duration by 10 %. However, the application of this regime in practice requires additional research. Using the described approach based on the developed mathematical models of the process allows receive optimal step and variable canned food sterilization regimes with high energy efficiency and product quality.

  4. Rheological considerations for the modelling of submarine sliding at Rockall Bank, NE Atlantic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salmanidou, D. M.; Georgiopoulou, A.; Guillas, S.; Dias, F.

    2018-03-01

    Recent scientific research indicates that the Rockall Bank Slide Complex in the NE Atlantic Ocean has formed as the result of repetitive slope failures that can be distinguished in at least three major phases. These sliding episodes took place during and before the Last Glacial Maximum. This work attempts the modelling of each sliding episode with the incorporation of the landslide's rheological properties. The objective is to study the landslide kinematics and final deposition of each episode under a rheological framework that comes in agreement with the field observations. To do so in the present work, we use different types of rheological models to compute the total retarding stress and simulate submarine failure. The Bingham rheology and the frictional rheology are used to model the flow behavior. The scope of this approach is to understand the effect of the two classical laws in landslide kinematics. A rheological model that combines the two regimes is also used. To account for the hydrodynamic drag, the Voellmy model is employed. The results are validated against the field observations on the seabed of the Rockall Trough. The simulations show that for this particular case the Bingham rheology with a small or negligible basal friction produces the best results. The tsunamigenic potential of the episodes is also briefly examined.

  5. A commentary on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation stability in climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gent, Peter R.

    2018-02-01

    The stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in ocean models depends quite strongly on the model formulation, especially the vertical mixing, and whether it is coupled to an atmosphere model. A hysteresis loop in AMOC strength with respect to freshwater forcing has been found in several intermediate complexity climate models and in one fully coupled climate model that has very coarse resolution. Over 40% of modern climate models are in a bistable AMOC state according to the very frequently used simple stability criterion which is based solely on the sign of the AMOC freshwater transport across 33° S. In a recent freshwater hosing experiment in a climate model with an eddy-permitting ocean component, the change in the gyre freshwater transport across 33° S is larger than the AMOC freshwater transport change. This casts very strong doubt on the usefulness of this simple AMOC stability criterion. If a climate model uses large surface flux adjustments, then these adjustments can interfere with the atmosphere-ocean feedbacks, and strongly change the AMOC stability properties. AMOC can be shut off for many hundreds of years in modern fully coupled climate models if the hosing or carbon dioxide forcing is strong enough. However, in one climate model the AMOC recovers after between 1000 and 1400 years. Recent 1% increasing carbon dioxide runs and RCP8.5 future scenario runs have shown that the AMOC reduction is smaller using an eddy-resolving ocean component than in the comparable standard 1° ocean climate models.

  6. Collaborative Research: Atlantic Ocean Tropical/Subtropical Processes from Seasonal to Decadal Time Scales: Model/Data, Model/Model Comparison and Model/Data Synthesis Through Assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malannotte-Rizzoli, Paola

    2003-01-01

    The effort of this first year of research has been focused on the assimilation of TOPEX/Poseidon altimetric data into a primitive equation model of the Atlantic tropical/subtropical circulation. A reduced-rank, stationary Kalman filter has been constructed to assimilate the altimetric sea surface height anomaly (SHA) into the model. The goal is to assess how the inter-hemispheric transports between the Atlantic subtropics and tropics are affected by the assimilation and how the subsurface thermocline structure , and its variability ,is dynamically constrained by the SHA. The model is a reduced-gravity primitive equation GCM of the upper Atlantic Ocean between 30 S and 30 N. The assimilation scheme is an approximation to the extended Kalman filter in which the error covariances of the state estimates are calculated only in a reduced- dimension subspace. The subspace is defined by the leading empirical orthogonal functions calculated from an unconstrained model calculation. Both an identical twin experiment using simulated SHA observations and assimilation of the real TOPEX data were performed. Results from the twin experiments demonstrate the ability of the method to constrain the ocean circulation and the subsurface temperature structure. The impact on the subsurface temperature structure of TOPEX assimilation was assessed using data from expandable bathythermographs. This showed a substantial improvement in the estimated temperature variability only within 13 degrees in latitude around the equator. The impact of TOPEX SHA assimilation on zonally integrated meridional transport across different latitudes was also estimated. Again within 13 degrees from the equator both the mean amplitude and interannual variability of the surface and subsurface transports were significantly enhanced, while the transports were insensitive to the assimilation in the subtropics.

  7. Atlantic Region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elands, B.H.M.; Bell, S.; Blok, J.

    2010-01-01

    Chapter 2 explores recreation and tourism practices in forest areas in the Atlantic region, which refers to the geographical area close to the North Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. The Atlantic countries described in this section are Belgium (Flanders and Wallonia), Denmark, Iceland, Ireland, the

  8. Environmental parameters affecting the structure of leaf-litter frog (Amphibia: Anura communities in tropical forests: a case study from an Atlantic Rainforest area in southeastern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carla C. Siqueira

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Despite a recent increase of information on leaf litter frog communities from Atlantic rainforests, few studies have analyzed the relationship between environmental parameters and community structure of these animals. We analyzed the effects of some environmental factors on a leaf litter frog community at an Atlantic Rainforest area in southeastern Brazil. Data collection lasted ten consecutive days in January 2010, at elevations ranging between 300 and 520 m above sea level. We established 50 quadrats of 5 x 5 m on the forest floor, totaling 1,250 m² of sampled area, and recorded the mean leaf-litter depth and the number of trees within the plot, as well as altitude. We found 307 individuals belonging to ten frog species within the plots. The overall density of leaf-litter frogs estimated from the plots was 24.6 ind/100m², with Euparkerella brasiliensis (Parker, 1926, Ischnocnema guentheri (Steindachner, 1864, Ischnocnema parva (Girard, 1853 and Haddadus binotatus (Spix, 1824 presenting the highest estimated densities. Among the environmental variables analyzed, only altitude influenced the parameters of anuran community. Our results indicate that the study area has a very high density of forest floor leaf litter frogs at altitudes of 300-500 m. Future estimates of litter frog density might benefit from taking the local altitudinal variation into consideration. Neglecting such variation might result in underestimated/overestimated values if they are extrapolated to the whole area.

  9. North Atlantic 20th century multidecadal variability in coupled climate models: sea surface temperature and ocean overturning circulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Medhaug

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Output from a total of 24 state-of-the-art Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models is analyzed. The models were integrated with observed forcing for the period 1850–2000 as part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. All models show enhanced variability at multi-decadal time scales in the North Atlantic sector similar to the observations, but with a large intermodel spread in amplitudes and frequencies for both the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC. The models, in general, are able to reproduce the observed geographical patterns of warm and cold episodes, but not the phasing such as the early warming (1930s–1950s and the following colder period (1960s–1980s. This indicates that the observed 20th century extreme in temperatures are due to primarily a fortuitous phasing of intrinsic climate variability and not dominated by external forcing. Most models show a realistic structure in the overturning circulation, where more than half of the available models have a mean overturning transport within the observed estimated range of 13–24 Sverdrup. Associated with a stronger than normal AMOC, the surface temperature is increased and the sea ice extent slightly reduced in the North Atlantic. Individual models show potential for decadal prediction based on the relationship between the AMO and AMOC, but the models strongly disagree both in phasing and strength of the covariability. This makes it difficult to identify common mechanisms and to assess the applicability for predictions.

  10. A multimodel assessment of future projections of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 climate models

    OpenAIRE

    Zappa, Giuseppe; Shaffrey, Len C.; Hodges, Kevin I.; Sansom, Phil G.; Stephenson, David B.

    2013-01-01

    The response of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones to climate change is investigated in the climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In contrast to previous multimodel studies, a feature-tracking algorithm is here applied to separately quantify the re- sponses in the number, the wind intensity, and the precipitation intensity of extratropical cyclones. Moreover, a statistical framework is employed to formally assess the unce...

  11. Regional model simulation of the North Atlantic cyclone "Caroline" and comparisons with satellite data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Keup-Thiel

    Full Text Available An individual regional model simulation of cyclone "Caroline" has been carried out to study water cycle components over the North Atlantic Ocean. The uncertainties associated with quantitative estimates of the water cycle components are highlighted by a comparison of the model results with SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave Imager satellite data.

    The vertically integrated water vapor of the REgional MOdel REMO is in good agreement with the SSM/I satellite data. The simulation results for other water budget components like the vertically integrated liquid water content and precipitation compare also reasonably well within the frontal system. However, the high precipitation rate in the cold air outbreak on the backside of the cold front derived from SSM/I satellite data is generally underestimated by REMO. This results in a considerable deficit of the total precipitation amount accumulated for the cyclone "Caroline". While REMO simulates 24.3 108 m3 h-1 for 09:00 UTC, the total areal precipitation from SSM/I satellite data amounts to 54.7 08 m3 h-1.

    Key words. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (precipitation; mesoscale meteorology – Radio science (remote sensing

  12. Regional model simulation of the North Atlantic cyclone "Caroline" and comparisons with satellite data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Keup-Thiel

    2003-03-01

    Full Text Available An individual regional model simulation of cyclone "Caroline" has been carried out to study water cycle components over the North Atlantic Ocean. The uncertainties associated with quantitative estimates of the water cycle components are highlighted by a comparison of the model results with SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave Imager satellite data. The vertically integrated water vapor of the REgional MOdel REMO is in good agreement with the SSM/I satellite data. The simulation results for other water budget components like the vertically integrated liquid water content and precipitation compare also reasonably well within the frontal system. However, the high precipitation rate in the cold air outbreak on the backside of the cold front derived from SSM/I satellite data is generally underestimated by REMO. This results in a considerable deficit of the total precipitation amount accumulated for the cyclone "Caroline". While REMO simulates 24.3 108 m3 h-1 for 09:00 UTC, the total areal precipitation from SSM/I satellite data amounts to 54.7 08 m3 h-1.Key words. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (precipitation; mesoscale meteorology – Radio science (remote sensing

  13. Comparative ecology of widely distributed pelagic fish species in the North Atlantic: Implications for modelling climate and fisheries impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenkel, V. M.; Huse, G.; MacKenzie, B. R.; Alvarez, P.; Arrizabalaga, H.; Castonguay, M.; Goñi, N.; Grégoire, F.; Hátún, H.; Jansen, T.; Jacobsen, J. A.; Lehodey, P.; Lutcavage, M.; Mariani, P.; Melvin, G. D.; Neilson, J. D.; Nøttestad, L.; Óskarsson, G. J.; Payne, M. R.; Richardson, D. E.; Senina, I.; Speirs, D. C.

    2014-12-01

    This paper reviews the current knowledge on the ecology of widely distributed pelagic fish stocks in the North Atlantic basin with emphasis on their role in the food web and the factors determining their relationship with the environment. We consider herring (Clupea harengus), mackerel (Scomber scombrus), capelin (Mallotus villosus), blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou), and horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus), which have distributions extending beyond the continental shelf and predominantly occur on both sides of the North Atlantic. We also include albacore (Thunnus alalunga), bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus), swordfish (Xiphias gladius), and blue marlin (Makaira nigricans), which, by contrast, show large-scale migrations at the basin scale. We focus on the links between life history processes and the environment, horizontal and vertical distribution, spatial structure and trophic role. Many of these species carry out extensive migrations from spawning grounds to nursery and feeding areas. Large oceanographic features such as the North Atlantic subpolar gyre play an important role in determining spatial distributions and driving variations in stock size. Given the large biomasses of especially the smaller species considered here, these stocks can exert significant top-down pressures on the food web and are important in supporting higher trophic levels. The review reveals commonalities and differences between the ecology of widely distributed pelagic fish in the NE and NW Atlantic basins, identifies knowledge gaps and modelling needs that the EURO-BASIN project attempts to address.

  14. High Resolution Model Development to Quantify the Impact of Icebergs on the Stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Condron, Alan [Univ. of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA (United States)

    2016-10-18

    In the present-day North Atlantic Ocean, relatively warm and salty water moves northwards from the tropics to the high latitudes, sinks, and returns southward towards the equator as North Atlantic Deep Water, forming the so called Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). It has been found that the stability of the AMOC is non-linearly related to the freshwater budget of the North Atlantic. In this way, additional fresh water can be added to the ocean with little impact, until a tipping point is reached that causes the AMOC to suddenly weaken and the Northern Hemisphere to abruptly cool. A great deal of uncertainty still remains over the sensitivity of the AMOC to changes in freshwater discharge as a result of the unrealistic manner in which freshwater has historically been added to climate models. Frequently, freshwater is discharged in ocean models entirely as liquid water, but in reality a large fraction of freshwater entering the ocean is ice calving from marine glaciers (half for Antarctica and two-thirds for Greenland). To more accurately quantify AMOC sensitivity to past and future changes in freshwater input, this project developed a comprehensive iceberg model to more realistically simulate the interaction between the cryosphere and the oceans at high-latitudes. The iceberg model created is written in Fortran90 and designed to scale efficiently on High Performance Computing (HPC) clusters so that tens-of-thousands of icebergs can be simulated at any time. Experiments performed with our model showed that in the Pleistocene there would have been enormous floods of freshwater released into the North Atlantic that would have transported icebergs and meltwater along the entire east coast of the United States, as far south as Florida Keys. In addition, high-resolution, modern-day, model simulations showed that if the Greenland Ice Sheet continues to melt at its current rate then there will be a 6-fold increase in the number of icebergs drifting in the

  15. Conceptual ecological model for management of breeding shrubland birds in the Mid-Atlantic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterjohn, Bruce G.

    2006-01-01

    communities. This project involved parks within three NPS Inventory and Monitoring Program (I&M) networks, Mid-Atlantic, National Capital, and Eastern Rivers and Mountains. Five parks were selected for the initial focus of this study, all of which maintain open landscapes for interpreting historic events. Most parks were selected because they contain the most extensive grassland habitats within their networks, although some also support shrubby successional habitats. The five parks included in this study are Antietam National Battlefield, Fort Necessity National Battlefield, Gettysburg National Battlefield, Manassas National Battlefield, and Monocacy National Battlefield. This conceptual ecological model is one product of this project. The information presented below allows NPS network coordinators to understand which factors should be considered when making decisions concerning shrubland management within their networks. This model provides park resource managers with information on shrubland ecology in the Mid-Atlantic Region, the ecological requirements of shrubland birds likely to occur in their parks, and management issues influencing whether significant breeding populations can occupy shrublands created and maintained in the parks. Resource managers can then make informed decisions concerning their ability to create and maintain shrubland habitats. The emphasis of this conceptual model is restricted to management of breeding shrubland birds. Additional species occur during migration and winter, and habitat requirements of shrubland birds during nonbreeding seasons may differ from those described for the breeding season.

  16. Plausible Effect of Weather on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation with a Coupled General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zedong; Wan, Xiuquan

    2018-04-01

    The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a vital component of the global ocean circulation and the heat engine of the climate system. Through the use of a coupled general circulation model, this study examines the role of synoptic systems on the AMOC and presents evidence that internally generated high-frequency, synoptic-scale weather variability in the atmosphere could play a significant role in maintaining the overall strength and variability of the AMOC, thereby affecting climate variability and change. Results of a novel coupling technique show that the strength and variability of the AMOC are greatly reduced once the synoptic weather variability is suppressed in the coupled model. The strength and variability of the AMOC are closely linked to deep convection events at high latitudes, which could be strongly affected by the weather variability. Our results imply that synoptic weather systems are important in driving the AMOC and its variability. Thus, interactions between atmospheric weather variability and AMOC may be an important feedback mechanism of the global climate system and need to be taken into consideration in future climate change studies.

  17. Community Environmental Education as a Model for Effective Environmental Programmes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blair, Morag

    2008-01-01

    The benefits of community environmental education outlined in environmental education literature are supported by the findings and implications of a research study undertaken in New Zealand. Evidence from a two-case case study suggests that environmental programmes guided by the key principles and practices of community environmental education,…

  18. Are Calanus spp. shifting poleward in the North Atlantic? A habitat modelling approach

    KAUST Repository

    Chust, Guillem; Castellani, Claudia; Licandro, Priscilla; Ibaibarriaga, Leire; Sagarminaga, Yolanda; Irigoien, Xabier

    2013-01-01

    is to verify the poleward shift of zooplankton species (Calanus finmarchicus, C. glacialis, C. helgolandicus, C. hyperboreus) for which distributional changes have been recorded in the North Atlantic Ocean and to assess how much of this shift was triggered

  19. International Summit on Integrated Environmental Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report describes the International Summit on Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM), held in Washington, DC 7th-9th December 2010. The meeting brought together 57 scientists and managers from leading US and European government and non-governmental organizations, universitie...

  20. Model comparisons and genetic and environmental parameter ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    arc

    Model comparisons and genetic and environmental parameter estimates of growth and the ... breeding strategies and for accurate breeding value estimation. The objectives ...... Sci. 23, 72-76. Van Wyk, J.B., Fair, M.D. & Cloete, S.W.P., 2003.

  1. Streamlining environmental product declarations: a stage model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefebvre, Elisabeth; Lefebvre, Louis A.; Talbot, Stephane; Le Hen, Gael

    2001-02-01

    General public environmental awareness and education is increasing, therefore stimulating the demand for reliable, objective and comparable information about products' environmental performances. The recently published standard series ISO 14040 and ISO 14025 are normalizing the preparation of Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs) containing comprehensive information relevant to a product's environmental impact during its life cycle. So far, only a few environmentally leading manufacturing organizations have experimented the preparation of EPDs (mostly from Europe), demonstrating its great potential as a marketing weapon. However the preparation of EPDs is a complex process, requiring collection and analysis of massive amounts of information coming from disparate sources (suppliers, sub-contractors, etc.). In a foreseeable future, the streamlining of the EPD preparation process will require product manufacturers to adapt their information systems (ERP, MES, SCADA) in order to make them capable of gathering, and transmitting the appropriate environmental information. It also requires strong functional integration all along the product supply chain in order to ensure that all the information is made available in a standardized and timely manner. The goal of the present paper is two fold: first to propose a transitional model towards green supply chain management and EPD preparation; second to identify key technologies and methodologies allowing to streamline the EPD process and subsequently the transition toward sustainable product development

  2. A motivational model for environmentally responsible behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabernero, Carmen; Hernández, Bernardo

    2012-07-01

    This paper presents a study examining whether self-efficacy and intrinsic motivation are related to environmentally responsible behavior (ERB). The study analysed past environmental behavior, self-regulatory mechanisms (self-efficacy, satisfaction, goals), and intrinsic and extrinsic motivation in relation to ERBs in a sample of 156 university students. Results show that all the motivational variables studied are linked to ERB. The effects of self-efficacy on ERB are mediated by the intrinsic motivation responses of the participants. A theoretical model was created by means of path analysis, revealing the power of motivational variables to predict ERB. Structural equation modeling was used to test and fit the research model. The role of motivational variables is discussed with a view to creating adequate learning contexts and experiences to generate interest and new sensations in which self-efficacy and affective reactions play an important role.

  3. Seasonal variation in biomarkers in blue mussel (Mytilus edulis), Icelandic scallop (Chlamys islandica) and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua)—Implications for environmental monitoring in the Barents Sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nahrgang, J.; Brooks, S.J.; Evenset, A.; Camus, L.; Jonsson, M.; Smith, T.J.; Lukina, J.; Frantzen, M.; Giarratano, E.; Renaud, P.E.

    2013-01-01

    In the Barents Sea, the limited data on biological relevant indicators and their responses to various anthropogenic stressors have hindered the development of a consistent scientific basis for selecting indicator species and developing practical procedures for environmental monitoring. Accordingly, the main aim of the present study was to develop a common set of baseline values for contaminants and biomarkers in three species, and to identify their strengths and limitations in monitoring of the Barents Sea. Blue mussel (Mytilus edulis), Icelandic scallop (Chlamys islandica) and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) were sampled from a north Norwegian fjord in March, June, September and December 2010. Digestive glands from the bivalve species and liver from Atlantic cod were analysed for biomarkers of oxidative stress (catalase [CAT], glutathione peroxidase [GPX], glutathione-S-transferase activities [GST], lipid peroxidation as thiobarbituric reactive substances [TBARS] and total oxyradical scavenging capacity [TOSC]), biotransformation (ethoxyresorufine-O-deethylase activity [EROD]) and general stress (lysosomal membrane stability [LMS]). Concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and metals in the bivalves and PAH metabolites in fish bile were quantified. Finally, energy reserves (total lipids, proteins and carbohydrates) and electron transport system (ETS) activity in the digestive gland of the bivalves and liver of Atlantic cod provided background information for reproductive cycle and general physiological status of the organisms. Blue mussel and Icelandic scallop showed very similar trends in biological cycle, biomarker expression and seasonality. Biomarker baselines in Atlantic cod showed weaker seasonal variability. However, important biological events may have been undetected due to the large time intervals between sampling occasions. Physiological biomarkers such as energy reserves and ETS activity were recommended as complementary parameters to the

  4. Seasonal variation in biomarkers in blue mussel (Mytilus edulis), Icelandic scallop (Chlamys islandica) and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua)-Implications for environmental monitoring in the Barents Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nahrgang, J., E-mail: jasmine.m.nahrgang@uit.no [Akvaplan-niva, FRAM Centre, NO-9296 Tromso (Norway); Brooks, S.J. [Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA), NO-0349 Oslo (Norway); Evenset, A. [Akvaplan-niva, FRAM Centre, NO-9296 Tromso (Norway); Camus, L. [Akvaplan-niva, FRAM Centre, NO-9296 Tromso (Norway); University Centre In Svalbard (UNIS), NO-9171 Longyearbyen (Norway); Jonsson, M.; Smith, T.J. [Akvaplan-niva, FRAM Centre, NO-9296 Tromso (Norway); Lukina, J. [Akvaplan-niva, FRAM Centre, NO-9296 Tromso (Norway); University of Tromso, Faculty of Biosciences, Fisheries and Economics, Department of Arctic and Marine Biosciences, NO-9037 Tromso (Norway); Frantzen, M. [Akvaplan-niva, FRAM Centre, NO-9296 Tromso (Norway); Giarratano, E. [Centro Nacional Patagonico (CENPAT-CONICET), AR-9120 Puerto Madryn (Argentina); Renaud, P.E. [Akvaplan-niva, FRAM Centre, NO-9296 Tromso (Norway); University Centre In Svalbard (UNIS), NO-9171 Longyearbyen (Norway)

    2013-02-15

    In the Barents Sea, the limited data on biological relevant indicators and their responses to various anthropogenic stressors have hindered the development of a consistent scientific basis for selecting indicator species and developing practical procedures for environmental monitoring. Accordingly, the main aim of the present study was to develop a common set of baseline values for contaminants and biomarkers in three species, and to identify their strengths and limitations in monitoring of the Barents Sea. Blue mussel (Mytilus edulis), Icelandic scallop (Chlamys islandica) and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) were sampled from a north Norwegian fjord in March, June, September and December 2010. Digestive glands from the bivalve species and liver from Atlantic cod were analysed for biomarkers of oxidative stress (catalase [CAT], glutathione peroxidase [GPX], glutathione-S-transferase activities [GST], lipid peroxidation as thiobarbituric reactive substances [TBARS] and total oxyradical scavenging capacity [TOSC]), biotransformation (ethoxyresorufine-O-deethylase activity [EROD]) and general stress (lysosomal membrane stability [LMS]). Concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and metals in the bivalves and PAH metabolites in fish bile were quantified. Finally, energy reserves (total lipids, proteins and carbohydrates) and electron transport system (ETS) activity in the digestive gland of the bivalves and liver of Atlantic cod provided background information for reproductive cycle and general physiological status of the organisms. Blue mussel and Icelandic scallop showed very similar trends in biological cycle, biomarker expression and seasonality. Biomarker baselines in Atlantic cod showed weaker seasonal variability. However, important biological events may have been undetected due to the large time intervals between sampling occasions. Physiological biomarkers such as energy reserves and ETS activity were recommended as complementary parameters to the

  5. Thermodynamic, geophysical and rheological modeling of the lithosphere underneath the North Atlantic Porcupine Basin (Ireland).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botter, C. D.; Prada, M.; Fullea, J.

    2017-12-01

    The Porcupine is a North-South oriented basin located southwest of Ireland, along the North Atlantic continental margin, formed by several rifting episodes during Late Carboniferous to Early Cretaceous. The sedimentary cover is underlined by a very thin continental crust in the center of the basin (10 in the South. In spite of the abundant literature, most of the oil and gas exploration in the Porcupine Basin has been targeting its northern part and is mostly restricted to relatively shallow depths, giving a restrained overview of the basin structure. Therefore, studying the thermodynamic and composition of the deep and broader structures is needed to understand the processes linked to the formation and the symmetry signature of the basin. Here, we model the present-day thermal and compositional structure of the continental crust and lithospheric mantle underneath the Porcupine basin using gravity, seismic, heat flow and elevation data. We use an integrated geophysical-petrological framework where most relevant rock properties (density, seismic velocities) are determined as a function of temperature, pressure and composition. Our modelling approach solves simultaneously the heat transfer, thermodynamic, geopotential, seismic and isostasy equations, and fit the results to all available geophysical and petrological observables (LitMod software). In this work we have implemented a module to compute self-consistently a laterally variable lithospheric elastic thickness based on mineral physics rheological laws (yield strength envelopes over the 3D volume). An appropriate understanding of local and flexural isostatic behavior of the basin is essential to unravel its tectonic history (i.e. stretching factors, subsidence etc.). Our Porcupine basin 3D model is defined by four lithological layers, representing properties from post- and syn-rift sequences to the lithospheric mantle. The computed yield strength envelopes are representative of hyperextended lithosphere and

  6. Virginia Atlantic Coast Recreational Use

    Data.gov (United States)

    Virginia Department of Environmental Quality — As a member of the Mid-Atlantic Regional Council on the Ocean (MARCO), Virginia, through its Coastal Zone Management (CZM) Program, collected information on how the...

  7. VA Atlantic Coast Recreational Use

    Data.gov (United States)

    Virginia Department of Environmental Quality — As a member of the Mid-Atlantic Regional Council on the Ocean (MARCO), Virginia, through its Coastal Zone Management (CZM) Program, collected information on how the...

  8. Efficient Ensemble State-Parameters Estimation Techniques in Ocean Ecosystem Models: Application to the North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Gharamti, M.; Bethke, I.; Tjiputra, J.; Bertino, L.

    2016-02-01

    Given the recent strong international focus on developing new data assimilation systems for biological models, we present in this comparative study the application of newly developed state-parameters estimation tools to an ocean ecosystem model. It is quite known that the available physical models are still too simple compared to the complexity of the ocean biology. Furthermore, various biological parameters remain poorly unknown and hence wrong specifications of such parameters can lead to large model errors. Standard joint state-parameters augmentation technique using the ensemble Kalman filter (Stochastic EnKF) has been extensively tested in many geophysical applications. Some of these assimilation studies reported that jointly updating the state and the parameters might introduce significant inconsistency especially for strongly nonlinear models. This is usually the case for ecosystem models particularly during the period of the spring bloom. A better handling of the estimation problem is often carried out by separating the update of the state and the parameters using the so-called Dual EnKF. The dual filter is computationally more expensive than the Joint EnKF but is expected to perform more accurately. Using a similar separation strategy, we propose a new EnKF estimation algorithm in which we apply a one-step-ahead smoothing to the state. The new state-parameters estimation scheme is derived in a consistent Bayesian filtering framework and results in separate update steps for the state and the parameters. Unlike the classical filtering path, the new scheme starts with an update step and later a model propagation step is performed. We test the performance of the new smoothing-based schemes against the standard EnKF in a one-dimensional configuration of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) in the North Atlantic. We use nutrients profile (up to 2000 m deep) data and surface partial CO2 measurements from Mike weather station (66o N, 2o E) to estimate

  9. A Study of Mesoscale Gravity Waves over the North Atlantic with Satellite Observations and a Mesoscale Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Dong L.; Zhang, Fuqing

    2004-01-01

    Satellite microwave data are used to study gravity wave properties and variabilities over the northeastern United States and the North Atlantic in the December-January periods. The gravity waves in this region, found in many winters, can reach the stratopause with growing amplitude. The Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) observations show that the wave occurrences are correlated well with the intensity and location of the tropospheric baroclinic jet front systems. To further investigate the cause(s) and properties of the North Atlantic gravity waves, we focus on a series of wave events during 19-21 January 2003 and compare AMSU-A observations to simulations from a mesoscale model (MM5). The simulated gravity waves compare qualitatively well with the satellite observations in terms of wave structures, timing, and overall morphology. Excitation mechanisms of these large-amplitude waves in the troposphere are complex and subject to further investigations.

  10. Environmental Governance as a Model of Environmental Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Budi Kristianto

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The concept of environmental governance does not promise practical solutions and provides short guidance in solving intertwined environmental problems in Indonesia. But at least environmental concept is useful when we try to realize environmental management in Indonesia currently. The worst is that the mistake has become routine manifesting in pragmatism in environmental management. Before it all too late, it is better that we keep in mind a German proverb in the beginning of this writing, which more or less, means “ we do not know what the future brings, but we know that we should act.”

  11. Simulation of the 1979 spring bloom in the Mid-Atlantic Bight - A coupled physical/biological/optical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, Watson W.; Walsh, John J.

    1992-01-01

    A coupled physical/biological/optical model is developed for studies of phytoplankton variability in the spring 1979 Mid-Atlantic Bight, as observed by CZCS imagery. The model incorporates advection, mixing, sinking, growth as a function of light, temperature, nutrient availability, and death as a function of ingestion. It produced chlorophyll concentrations within the first attenuated depth within 1 standard deviation of CZCS imagery on large scale. The primary production estimates obtained using this model were within reasonable agreement with those measured in situ.

  12. Atmospheric dispersion models for environmental pollution applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gifford, F.A.

    1976-01-01

    Pollutants are introduced into the air by many of man's activities. The potentially harmful effects these can cause are, broadly speaking, of two kinds: long-term, possibly large-scale and wide-spread chronic effects, including long-term effects on the earth's climate; and acute, short-term effects such as those associated with urban air pollution. This section is concerned with mathematical cloud or plume models describing the role of the atmosphere, primarily in relation to the second of these, the acute effects of air pollution, i.e., those arising from comparatively high concentration levels. The need for such air pollution modeling studies has increased spectacularly as a result of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1968 and, especially, two key court decisions; the Calvert Cliffs decision, and the Sierra Club ruling on environmental non-degradation

  13. Oil spill modeling input to the offshore environmental cost model (OECM) for US-BOEMRE's spill risk and costs evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    French McCay, Deborah; Reich, Danielle; Rowe, Jill; Schroeder, Melanie; Graham, Eileen

    2011-01-01

    This paper simulates the consequences of oil spills using a planning model known as the Offshore Environmental Cost Model (OECM). This study aims at creating various predictive models for possible oil spill scenarios in marine waters. A crucial part of this investigation was the SIMAP model. It analyzes the distance and the direction covered by the spill under certain test conditions, generating a regression equation that simulates the impact of the spill. Tests were run in two different regions; the Mid-Atlantic region and the Chukchi Sea. Results showed that the higher wind speeds and higher water temperature of the Mid-Atlantic region had greater impact on wildlife and the water column respectively. However, short-line impact was higher in the Chukchi area due to the multi-directional wind. It was also shown that, because of their higher diffusivity in water, lighter crude oils had more impact than heavier oils. It was suggested that this model could ultimately be applied to other oil spill scenarios happening under similar conditions.

  14. Extreme wind-wave modeling and analysis in the south Atlantic ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campos, R. M.; Alves, J. H. G. M.; Guedes Soares, C.; Guimaraes, L. G.; Parente, C. E.

    2018-04-01

    A set of wave hindcasts is constructed using two different types of wind calibration, followed by an additional test retuning the input source term Sin in the wave model. The goal is to improve the simulation in extreme wave events in the South Atlantic Ocean without compromising average conditions. Wind fields are based on Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR/NCEP). The first wind calibration applies a simple linear regression model, with coefficients obtained from the comparison of CFSR against buoy data. The second is a method where deficiencies of the CFSR associated with severe sea state events are remedied, whereby "defective" winds are replaced with satellite data within cyclones. A total of six wind datasets forced WAVEWATCH-III and additional three tests with modified Sin in WAVEWATCH III lead to a total of nine wave hindcasts that are evaluated against satellite and buoy data for ambient and extreme conditions. The target variable considered is the significant wave height (Hs). The increase of sea-state severity shows a progressive increase of the hindcast underestimation which could be calculated as a function of percentiles. The wind calibration using a linear regression function shows similar results to the adjustments to Sin term (increase of βmax parameter) in WAVEWATCH-III - it effectively reduces the average bias of Hs but cannot avoid the increase of errors with percentiles. The use of blended scatterometer winds within cyclones could reduce the increasing wave hindcast errors mainly above the 93rd percentile and leads to a better representation of Hs at the peak of the storms. The combination of linear regression calibration of non-cyclonic winds with scatterometer winds within the cyclones generated a wave hindcast with small errors from calm to extreme conditions. This approach led to a reduction of the percentage error of Hs from 14% to less than 8% for extreme waves, while also improving the RMSE.

  15. Determination of deep water circulation in the East Atlantic Ocean by means of a box-model based evaluation of C-14 measurements and other tracer data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schlitzer, R.

    1984-01-01

    Radiocarbon (C-14) measurements proved to be an efficient means of determining the average, large-area deep water circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. The thesis under review explains and discusses measurements carried out in the equatorial West Atlantic and North Atlantic Ocean. The samples have been taken during mission 56 of the RS 'meteor' in spring 1981. The gas has been obtained by vacuum extraction and the measurements have been performed in proportional counter tubes, the error to be accounted for amounting to 2per mille. These measured data, together with measurements of the potential temperatures, the silicate and CO 2 concentrations, and measured data from the South-East Atlantic Ocean, have been used to calculate on the basis of a box model of the Atlantic Ocean the deep water flow from the West to the East Atlantic Ocean, the deep water circulation between the various East Atlantic basins, and the turbulent diffusion coefficients required to parameterize the deep water mixing processes. (orig./HP) [de

  16. Uncertainty associated with selected environmental transport models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Little, C.A.; Miller, C.W.

    1979-11-01

    A description is given of the capabilities of several models to predict accurately either pollutant concentrations in environmental media or radiological dose to human organs. The models are discussed in three sections: aquatic or surface water transport models, atmospheric transport models, and terrestrial and aquatic food chain models. Using data published primarily by model users, model predictions are compared to observations. This procedure is infeasible for food chain models and, therefore, the uncertainty embodied in the models input parameters, rather than the model output, is estimated. Aquatic transport models are divided into one-dimensional, longitudinal-vertical, and longitudinal-horizontal models. Several conclusions were made about the ability of the Gaussian plume atmospheric dispersion model to predict accurately downwind air concentrations from releases under several sets of conditions. It is concluded that no validation study has been conducted to test the predictions of either aquatic or terrestrial food chain models. Using the aquatic pathway from water to fish to an adult for 137 Cs as an example, a 95% one-tailed confidence limit interval for the predicted exposure is calculated by examining the distributions of the input parameters. Such an interval is found to be 16 times the value of the median exposure. A similar one-tailed limit for the air-grass-cow-milk-thyroid for 131 I and infants was 5.6 times the median dose. Of the three model types discussed in this report,the aquatic transport models appear to do the best job of predicting observed concentrations. However, this conclusion is based on many fewer aquatic validation data than were availaable for atmospheric model validation

  17. Environmental Models as a Service: Enabling Interoperability ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achieving interoperability in environmental modeling has evolved as software technology has progressed. The recent rise of cloud computing and proliferation of web services initiated a new stage for creating interoperable systems. Scientific programmers increasingly take advantage of streamlined deployment processes and affordable cloud access to move algorithms and data to the web for discoverability and consumption. In these deployments, environmental models can become available to end users through RESTful web services and consistent application program interfaces (APIs) that consume, manipulate, and store modeling data. RESTful modeling APIs also promote discoverability and guide usability through self-documentation. Embracing the RESTful paradigm allows models to be accessible via a web standard, and the resulting endpoints are platform- and implementation-agnostic while simultaneously presenting significant computational capabilities for spatial and temporal scaling. RESTful APIs present data in a simple verb-noun web request interface: the verb dictates how a resource is consumed using HTTP methods (e.g., GET, POST, and PUT) and the noun represents the URL reference of the resource on which the verb will act. The RESTful API can self-document in both the HTTP response and an interactive web page using the Open API standard. This lets models function as an interoperable service that promotes sharing, documentation, and discoverability. Here, we discuss the

  18. Understanding and simulating the link between African easterly waves and Atlantic tropical cyclones using a regional climate model: the role of domain size and lateral boundary conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caron, Louis-Philippe [MISU, Stockholm University, Stockholm (Sweden); Universite du Quebec a Montreal, CRCMD Network, Montreal, QC (Canada); Jones, Colin G. [Swedish Meterological and Hydrological Institute, Rossby Center, Norrkoeping (Sweden)

    2012-07-15

    Using a suite of lateral boundary conditions, we investigate the impact of domain size and boundary conditions on the Atlantic tropical cyclone and african easterly Wave activity simulated by a regional climate model. Irrespective of boundary conditions, simulations closest to observed climatology are obtained using a domain covering both the entire tropical Atlantic and northern African region. There is a clear degradation when the high-resolution model domain is diminished to cover only part of the African continent or only the tropical Atlantic. This is found to be the result of biases in the boundary data, which for the smaller domains, have a large impact on TC activity. In this series of simulations, the large-scale Atlantic atmospheric environment appears to be the primary control on simulated TC activity. Weaker wave activity is usually accompanied by a shift in cyclogenesis location, from the MDR to the subtropics. All ERA40-driven integrations manage to capture the observed interannual variability and to reproduce most of the upward trend in tropical cyclone activity observed during that period. When driven by low-resolution global climate model (GCM) integrations, the regional climate model captures interannual variability (albeit with lower correlation coefficients) only if tropical cyclones form in sufficient numbers in the main development region. However, all GCM-driven integrations fail to capture the upward trend in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. In most integrations, variations in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity appear uncorrelated with variations in African easterly wave activity. (orig.)

  19. Use of circulation types classifications to evaluate AR4 climate models over the Euro-Atlantic region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pastor, M.A.; Casado, M.J. [Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia (AEMET), Madrid (Spain)

    2012-10-15

    This paper presents an evaluation of the multi-model simulations for the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in terms of their ability to simulate the ERA40 circulation types over the Euro-Atlantic region in winter season. Two classification schemes, k-means and SANDRA, have been considered to test the sensitivity of the evaluation results to the classification procedure. The assessment allows establishing different rankings attending spatial and temporal features of the circulation types. Regarding temporal characteristics, in general, all AR4 models tend to underestimate the frequency of occurrence. The best model simulating spatial characteristics is the UKMO-HadGEM1 whereas CCSM3, UKMO-HadGEM1 and CGCM3.1(T63) are the best simulating the temporal features, for both classification schemes. This result agrees with the AR4 models ranking obtained when having analysed the ability of the same AR4 models to simulate Euro-Atlantic variability modes. This study has proved the utility of applying such a synoptic climatology approach as a diagnostic tool for models' assessment. The ability of the models to properly reproduce the position of ridges and troughs and the frequency of synoptic patterns, will therefore improve our confidence in the response of models to future climate changes. (orig.)

  20. Spatial transferability of habitat suitability models of Nephrops norvegicus among fished areas in the Northeast Atlantic: sufficiently stable for marine resource conservation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentina Lauria

    Full Text Available Knowledge of the spatial distribution and habitat associations of species in relation to the environment is essential for their management and conservation. Habitat suitability models are useful in quantifying species-environment relationships and predicting species distribution patterns. Little is known, however, about the stability and performance of habitat suitability models when projected into new areas (spatial transferability and how this can inform resource management. The aims of this study were to model habitat suitability of Norway lobster (Nephrops norvegicus in five fished areas of the Northeast Atlantic (Aran ground, Irish Sea, Celtic Sea, Scotland Inshore and Fladen ground, and to test for spatial transferability of habitat models among multiple regions. Nephrops burrow density was modelled using generalised additive models (GAMs with predictors selected from four environmental variables (depth, slope, sediment and rugosity. Models were evaluated and tested for spatial transferability among areas. The optimum models (lowest AICc for different areas always included depth and sediment as predictors. Burrow densities were generally greater at depth and in finer sediments, but relationships for individual areas were sometimes more complex. Aside from an inclusion of depth and sediment, the optimum models differed between fished areas. When it came to tests of spatial transferability, however, most of the models were able to predict Nephrops density in other areas. Furthermore, transferability was not dependent on use of the optimum models since competing models were also able to achieve a similar level of transferability to new areas. A degree of decoupling between model 'fitting' performance and spatial transferability supports the use of simpler models when extrapolating habitat suitability maps to different areas. Differences in the form and performance of models from different areas may supply further information on the processes

  1. Towards policy relevant environmental modeling: contextual validity and pragmatic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, Scott B.

    2000-01-01

    "What makes for a good model?" In various forms, this question is a question that, undoubtedly, many people, businesses, and institutions ponder with regards to their particular domain of modeling. One particular domain that is wrestling with this question is the multidisciplinary field of environmental modeling. Examples of environmental models range from models of contaminated ground water flow to the economic impact of natural disasters, such as earthquakes. One of the distinguishing claims of the field is the relevancy of environmental modeling to policy and environment-related decision-making in general. A pervasive view by both scientists and decision-makers is that a "good" model is one that is an accurate predictor. Thus, determining whether a model is "accurate" or "correct" is done by comparing model output to empirical observations. The expected outcome of this process, usually referred to as "validation" or "ground truthing," is a stamp on the model in question of "valid" or "not valid" that serves to indicate whether or not the model will be reliable before it is put into service in a decision-making context. In this paper, I begin by elaborating on the prevailing view of model validation and why this view must change. Drawing from concepts coming out of the studies of science and technology, I go on to propose a contextual view of validity that can overcome the problems associated with "ground truthing" models as an indicator of model goodness. The problem of how we talk about and determine model validity has much to do about how we perceive the utility of environmental models. In the remainder of the paper, I argue that we should adopt ideas of pragmatism in judging what makes for a good model and, in turn, developing good models. From such a perspective of model goodness, good environmental models should facilitate communication, convey—not bury or "eliminate"—uncertainties, and, thus, afford the active building of consensus decisions, instead

  2. Assessing the quality of bottom water temperatures from the Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) in the Northwest Atlantic Shelf region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bai; Tanaka, Kisei R.; Chen, Yong; Brady, Damian C.; Thomas, Andrew C.

    2017-09-01

    The Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) is an advanced coastal circulation model widely utilized for its ability to simulate spatially and temporally evolving three-dimensional geophysical conditions of complex and dynamic coastal regions. While a body of literature evaluates model skill in surface fields, independent studies validating model skill in bottom fields over large spatial and temporal scales are scarce because these fields cannot be remotely sensed. In this study, an evaluation of FVCOM skill in modeling bottom water temperature was conducted by comparison to hourly in situ observed bottom temperatures recorded by the Environmental Monitors on Lobster Traps (eMOLT), a program that attached thermistors to commercial lobster traps from 2001 to 2013. Over 2 × 106 pairs of FVCOM-eMOLT records were evaluated by a series of statistical measures to quantify accuracy and precision of the modeled data across the Northwest Atlantic Shelf region. The overall comparison between modeled and observed data indicates reliable skill of FVCOM (r2 = 0.72; root mean squared error = 2.28 °C). Seasonally, the average absolute errors show higher model skill in spring, fall and winter than summer. We speculate that this is due to the increased difficulty of modeling high frequency variability in the exact position of the thermocline and frontal zones. The spatial patterns of the residuals suggest that there is improved similarity between modeled and observed data at higher latitudes. We speculate that this is due to increased tidal mixing at higher latitudes in our study area that reduces stratification in winter, allowing improved model accuracy. Modeled bottom water temperatures around Cape Cod, the continental shelf edges, and at one location at the entrance to Penobscot Bay were characterized by relatively high errors. Constraints for future uses of FVCOM bottom water temperature are provided based on the uncertainties in temporal-spatial patterns. This study is

  3. Model evaluation methodology applicable to environmental assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaeffer, D.L.

    1979-08-01

    A model evaluation methodology is presented to provide a systematic framework within which the adequacy of environmental assessment models might be examined. The necessity for such a tool is motivated by the widespread use of models for predicting the environmental consequences of various human activities and by the reliance on these model predictions for deciding whether a particular activity requires the deployment of costly control measures. Consequently, the uncertainty associated with prediction must be established for the use of such models. The methodology presented here consists of six major tasks: model examination, algorithm examination, data evaluation, sensitivity analyses, validation studies, and code comparison. This methodology is presented in the form of a flowchart to show the logical interrelatedness of the various tasks. Emphasis has been placed on identifying those parameters which are most important in determining the predictive outputs of a model. Importance has been attached to the process of collecting quality data. A method has been developed for analyzing multiplicative chain models when the input parameters are statistically independent and lognormally distributed. Latin hypercube sampling has been offered as a promising candidate for doing sensitivity analyses. Several different ways of viewing the validity of a model have been presented. Criteria are presented for selecting models for environmental assessment purposes

  4. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.W.

    1983-01-01

    This article reviews the forthcoming book Models and Parameters for Environmental Radiological Assessments, which presents a unified compilation of models and parameters for assessing the impact on man of radioactive discharges, both routine and accidental, into the environment. Models presented in this book include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Summaries are presented for each of the transport and dosimetry areas previously for each of the transport and dosimetry areas previously mentioned, and details are available in the literature cited. A chapter of example problems illustrates many of the methodologies presented throughout the text. Models and parameters presented are based on the results of extensive literature reviews and evaluations performed primarily by the staff of the Health and Safety Research Division of Oak Ridge National Laboratory

  5. Underwater noise modelling for environmental impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farcas, Adrian [Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, NR33 0HT (United Kingdom); Thompson, Paul M. [Lighthouse Field Station, Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Cromarty IV11 8YL (United Kingdom); Merchant, Nathan D., E-mail: nathan.merchant@cefas.co.uk [Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, NR33 0HT (United Kingdom)

    2016-02-15

    Assessment of underwater noise is increasingly required by regulators of development projects in marine and freshwater habitats, and noise pollution can be a constraining factor in the consenting process. Noise levels arising from the proposed activity are modelled and the potential impact on species of interest within the affected area is then evaluated. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the relationship between noise levels and impacts on aquatic species, the science underlying noise modelling is well understood. Nevertheless, many environmental impact assessments (EIAs) do not reflect best practice, and stakeholders and decision makers in the EIA process are often unfamiliar with the concepts and terminology that are integral to interpreting noise exposure predictions. In this paper, we review the process of underwater noise modelling and explore the factors affecting predictions of noise exposure. Finally, we illustrate the consequences of errors and uncertainties in noise modelling, and discuss future research needs to reduce uncertainty in noise assessments.

  6. Underwater noise modelling for environmental impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farcas, Adrian; Thompson, Paul M.; Merchant, Nathan D.

    2016-01-01

    Assessment of underwater noise is increasingly required by regulators of development projects in marine and freshwater habitats, and noise pollution can be a constraining factor in the consenting process. Noise levels arising from the proposed activity are modelled and the potential impact on species of interest within the affected area is then evaluated. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the relationship between noise levels and impacts on aquatic species, the science underlying noise modelling is well understood. Nevertheless, many environmental impact assessments (EIAs) do not reflect best practice, and stakeholders and decision makers in the EIA process are often unfamiliar with the concepts and terminology that are integral to interpreting noise exposure predictions. In this paper, we review the process of underwater noise modelling and explore the factors affecting predictions of noise exposure. Finally, we illustrate the consequences of errors and uncertainties in noise modelling, and discuss future research needs to reduce uncertainty in noise assessments.

  7. A regional ocean circulation model for the mid-Cretaceous North Atlantic Basin: implications for black shale formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. P. M. Topper

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available High concentrations of organic matter accumulated in marine sediments during Oceanic Anoxic Events (OAEs in the Cretaceous. Model studies examining these events invariably make use of global ocean circulation models. In this study, a regional model for the North Atlantic Basin during OAE2 at the Cenomanian-Turonian boundary has been developed. A first order check of the results has been performed by comparison with the results of a recent global Cenomanian CCSM3 run, from which boundary and initial conditions were obtained. The regional model is able to maintain tracer patterns and to produce velocity patterns similar to the global model. The sensitivity of the basin tracer and circulation patterns to changes in the geometry of the connections with the global ocean is examined with three experiments with different bathymetries near the sponges. Different geometries turn out to have little effect on tracer distribution, but do affect circulation and upwelling patterns. The regional model is also used to test the hypothesis that ocean circulation may have been behind the deposition of black shales during OAEs. Three scenarios are tested which are thought to represent pre-OAE, OAE and post-OAE situations. Model results confirm that Pacific intermediate inflow together with coastal upwelling could have enhanced primary production during OAE2. A low sea level in the pre-OAE scenario could have inhibited large scale black shale formation, as could have the opening of the Equatorial Atlantic Seaway in the post-OAE scenario.

  8. Knowledge-Based Environmental Context Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pukite, P. R.; Challou, D. J.

    2017-12-01

    As we move from the oil-age to an energy infrastructure based on renewables, the need arises for new educational tools to support the analysis of geophysical phenomena and their behavior and properties. Our objective is to present models of these phenomena to make them amenable for incorporation into more comprehensive analysis contexts. Starting at the level of a college-level computer science course, the intent is to keep the models tractable and therefore practical for student use. Based on research performed via an open-source investigation managed by DARPA and funded by the Department of Interior [1], we have adapted a variety of physics-based environmental models for a computer-science curriculum. The original research described a semantic web architecture based on patterns and logical archetypal building-blocks (see figure) well suited for a comprehensive environmental modeling framework. The patterns span a range of features that cover specific land, atmospheric and aquatic domains intended for engineering modeling within a virtual environment. The modeling engine contained within the server relied on knowledge-based inferencing capable of supporting formal terminology (through NASA JPL's Semantic Web for Earth and Environmental Technology (SWEET) ontology and a domain-specific language) and levels of abstraction via integrated reasoning modules. One of the key goals of the research was to simplify models that were ordinarily computationally intensive to keep them lightweight enough for interactive or virtual environment contexts. The breadth of the elements incorporated is well-suited for learning as the trend toward ontologies and applying semantic information is vital for advancing an open knowledge infrastructure. As examples of modeling, we have covered such geophysics topics as fossil-fuel depletion, wind statistics, tidal analysis, and terrain modeling, among others. Techniques from the world of computer science will be necessary to promote efficient

  9. Modelling the chemically aged and mixed aerosols over the eastern central Atlantic Ocean-potential impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Astitha, M.; Kallos, G.; Spyrou, C.; O'Hirok, W.; Lelieveld, J.; Denier Gon, H.A.C. van der

    2010-01-01

    Detailed information on the chemical and physical properties of aerosols is important for assessing their role in air quality and climate. This work explores the origin and fate of continental aerosols transported over the Central Atlantic Ocean, in terms of chemical composition, number and size

  10. Downscaled Climate Model for the North Central Atlantic Ocean 2000-2100

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The regional MOM5 domain contain the Atlantic Ocean between 100°W and 20°E bounded north and south by 65°N and 20°S, respectively. The regional MOM5 will have a...

  11. Global Environmental Change: An integrated modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Den Elzen, M.

    1993-01-01

    Two major global environmental problems are dealt with: climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion (and their mutual interactions), briefly surveyed in part 1. In Part 2 a brief description of the integrated modelling framework IMAGE 1.6 is given. Some specific parts of the model are described in more detail in other Chapters, e.g. the carbon cycle model, the atmospheric chemistry model, the halocarbon model, and the UV-B impact model. In Part 3 an uncertainty analysis of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion is presented (Chapter 4). Chapter 5 briefly reviews the social and economic uncertainties implied by future greenhouse gas emissions. Chapters 6 and 7 describe a model and sensitivity analysis pertaining to the scientific uncertainties and/or lacunae in the sources and sinks of methane and carbon dioxide, and their biogeochemical feedback processes. Chapter 8 presents an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the carbon cycle model, the halocarbon model, and the IMAGE model 1.6 as a whole. Part 4 presents the risk assessment methodology as applied to the problems of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion more specifically. In Chapter 10, this methodology is used as a means with which to asses current ozone policy and a wide range of halocarbon policies. Chapter 11 presents and evaluates the simulated globally-averaged temperature and sea level rise (indicators) for the IPCC-1990 and 1992 scenarios, concluding with a Low Risk scenario, which would meet the climate targets. Chapter 12 discusses the impact of sea level rise on the frequency of the Dutch coastal defence system (indicator) for the IPCC-1990 scenarios. Chapter 13 presents projections of mortality rates due to stratospheric ozone depletion based on model simulations employing the UV-B chain model for a number of halocarbon policies. Chapter 14 presents an approach for allocating future emissions of CO 2 among regions. (Abstract Truncated)

  12. Modelled estimates of spatial variability of iron stress in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan-Keogh, Thomas J.; Thomalla, Sandy J.; Mtshali, Thato N.; Little, Hazel

    2017-09-01

    The Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean is characterized by markedly different frontal zones with specific seasonal and sub-seasonal dynamics. Demonstrated here is the effect of iron on the potential maximum productivity rates of the phytoplankton community. A series of iron addition productivity versus irradiance (PE) experiments utilizing a unique experimental design that allowed for 24 h incubations were performed within the austral summer of 2015/16 to determine the photosynthetic parameters αB, PBmax and Ek. Mean values for each photosynthetic parameter under iron-replete conditions were 1.46 ± 0.55 (µg (µg Chl a)-1 h-1 (µM photons m-2 s-1)-1) for αB, 72.55 ± 27.97 (µg (µg Chl a)-1 h-1) for PBmax and 50.84 ± 11.89 (µM photons m-2 s-1) for Ek, whereas mean values under the control conditions were 1.25 ± 0.92 (µg (µg Chl a)-1 h-1 (µM photons m-2 s-1)-1) for αB, 62.44 ± 36.96 (µg (µg Chl a)-1 h-1) for PBmax and 55.81 ± 19.60 (µM photons m-2 s-1) for Ek. There were no clear spatial patterns in either the absolute values or the absolute differences between the treatments at the experimental locations. When these parameters are integrated into a standard depth-integrated primary production model across a latitudinal transect, the effect of iron addition shows higher levels of primary production south of 50° S, with very little difference observed in the subantarctic and polar frontal zone. These results emphasize the need for better parameterization of photosynthetic parameters in biogeochemical models around sensitivities in their response to iron supply. Future biogeochemical models will need to consider the combined and individual effects of iron and light to better resolve the natural background in primary production and predict its response under a changing climate.

  13. El Niño, Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly and Coral Bleaching in the South Atlantic: A Chain of Events Modeled With a Bayesian Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lisboa, D. S.; Kikuchi, R. K. P.; Leão, Zelinda M. A. N.

    2018-04-01

    Coral bleaching represents one of the main climate-change related threats to reef ecosystems. This research represents a methodological alternative for modeling this phenomenon, focused on assessing uncertainties and complexities with a low number of observations. To develop this model, intermittent reef monitoring data from the largest reef complex in the South Atlantic collected over nine summers between 2000 and 2014 were used with remote sensing data to construct and train a bleaching seasonal prediction model. The Bayesian approach was used to construct the network as it is suitable for hierarchically organizing local thermal variables and combining them with El Niño indicators from the preceding winter to generate accurate bleaching predictions for the coming season. Network count information from six environmental indicators was used to calculate the probability of bleaching, which is mainly influenced by the combined information of two thermal indices; one thermal index is designed to track short period anomalies in the early summer that are capable of triggering bleaching (SST of five consecutive days), and the other index is responsible for tracking the accumulation of thermal stress over time, an index called degree heating trimester (DHT). In addition to developing the network, this study conducted the three tests of applicability proposed for model: 1- Perform the forecast of coral bleaching for the summer of 2016; 2- Investigate the role of turbidity during the bleaching episodes; and 3- Use the model information to identify areas with a lower predisposition to bleaching events.

  14. Innovative mathematical modeling in environmental remediation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yeh, Gour T.; Gwo, Jin Ping; Siegel, Malcolm D.; Li, Ming-Hsu; Fang, Yilin; Zhang, Fan; Luo, Wensui; Yabusaki, Steven B.

    2013-01-01

    There are two different ways to model reactive transport: ad hoc and innovative reaction-based approaches. The former, such as the Kd simplification of adsorption, has been widely employed by practitioners, while the latter has been mainly used in scientific communities for elucidating mechanisms of biogeochemical transport processes. It is believed that innovative mechanistic-based models could serve as protocols for environmental remediation as well. This paper reviews the development of a mechanistically coupled fluid flow, thermal transport, hydrologic transport, and reactive biogeochemical model and example-applications to environmental remediation problems. Theoretical bases are sufficiently described. Four example problems previously carried out are used to demonstrate how numerical experimentation can be used to evaluate the feasibility of different remediation approaches. The first one involved the application of a 56-species uranium tailing problem to the Melton Branch Subwatershed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) using the parallel version of the model. Simulations were made to demonstrate the potential mobilization of uranium and other chelating agents in the proposed waste disposal site. The second problem simulated laboratory-scale system to investigate the role of natural attenuation in potential off-site migration of uranium from uranium mill tailings after restoration. It showed inadequacy of using a single Kd even for a homogeneous medium. The third example simulated laboratory experiments involving extremely high concentrations of uranium, technetium, aluminum, nitrate, and toxic metals (e.g.,Ni, Cr, Co). The fourth example modeled microbially-mediated immobilization of uranium in an unconfined aquifer using acetate amendment in a field-scale experiment. The purposes of these modeling studies were to simulate various mechanisms of mobilization and immobilization of radioactive wastes and to illustrate how to apply reactive transport models

  15. Innovative mathematical modeling in environmental remediation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yeh, Gour T. [Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute (Taiwan); National Central Univ. (Taiwan); Univ. of Central Florida (United States); Gwo, Jin Ping [Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Rockville, MD (United States); Siegel, Malcolm D. [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Li, Ming-Hsu [National Central Univ. (Taiwan); ; Fang, Yilin [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhang, Fan [Inst. of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China); Luo, Wensui [Inst. of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China); Yabusaki, Steven B. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2013-05-01

    There are two different ways to model reactive transport: ad hoc and innovative reaction-based approaches. The former, such as the Kd simplification of adsorption, has been widely employed by practitioners, while the latter has been mainly used in scientific communities for elucidating mechanisms of biogeochemical transport processes. It is believed that innovative mechanistic-based models could serve as protocols for environmental remediation as well. This paper reviews the development of a mechanistically coupled fluid flow, thermal transport, hydrologic transport, and reactive biogeochemical model and example-applications to environmental remediation problems. Theoretical bases are sufficiently described. Four example problems previously carried out are used to demonstrate how numerical experimentation can be used to evaluate the feasibility of different remediation approaches. The first one involved the application of a 56-species uranium tailing problem to the Melton Branch Subwatershed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) using the parallel version of the model. Simulations were made to demonstrate the potential mobilization of uranium and other chelating agents in the proposed waste disposal site. The second problem simulated laboratory-scale system to investigate the role of natural attenuation in potential off-site migration of uranium from uranium mill tailings after restoration. It showed inadequacy of using a single Kd even for a homogeneous medium. The third example simulated laboratory experiments involving extremely high concentrations of uranium, technetium, aluminum, nitrate, and toxic metals (e.g.,Ni, Cr, Co).The fourth example modeled microbially-mediated immobilization of uranium in an unconfined aquifer using acetate amendment in a field-scale experiment. The purposes of these modeling studies were to simulate various mechanisms of mobilization and immobilization of radioactive wastes and to illustrate how to apply reactive transport models

  16. Development of Dynamic Environmental Effect Calculation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Chang Joon; Ko, Won Il

    2010-01-01

    The short-term, long-term decay heat, and radioactivity are considered as main environmental parameters of SF and HLA. In this study, the dynamic calculation models for radioactivity, short-term decay heat, and long-term heat load of the SF are developed and incorporated into the Doneness code. The spent fuel accumulation has become a major issue for sustainable operation of nuclear power plants. If a once-through fuel cycle is selected, the SF will be disposed into the repository. Otherwise, in case of fast reactor or reuse cycle, the SF will be reprocessed and the high level waste will be disposed

  17. Modeling ozone plumes observed downwind of New York City over the North Atlantic Ocean during the ICARTT field campaign

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.-H. Lee

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Transport and chemical transformation of well-defined New York City (NYC urban plumes over the North Atlantic Ocean were studied using aircraft measurements collected on 20–21 July 2004 during the ICARTT (International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation field campaign and WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting-Chemistry model simulations. The strong NYC urban plumes were characterized by carbon monoxide (CO mixing ratios of 350–400 parts per billion by volume (ppbv and ozone (O3 levels of about 100 ppbv near New York City on 20 July in the WP-3D in-situ and DC-3 lidar aircraft measurements. On 21 July, the two aircraft captured strong urban plumes with about 350 ppbv CO and over 150 ppbv O3 (~160 ppbv maximum about 600 km downwind of NYC over the North Atlantic Ocean. The measured urban plumes extended vertically up to about 2 km near New York City, but shrank to 1–1.5 km over the stable marine boundary layer (MBL over the North Atlantic Ocean. The WRF-Chem model reproduced ozone formation processes, chemical characteristics, and meteorology of the measured urban plumes near New York City (20 July and in the far downwind region over the North Atlantic Ocean (21 July. The quasi-Lagrangian analysis of transport and chemical transformation of the simulated NYC urban plumes using WRF-Chem results showed that the pollutants can be efficiently transported in (isentropic layers in the lower atmosphere (<2–3 km over the North Atlantic Ocean while maintaining a dynamic vertical decoupling by cessation of turbulence in the stable MBL. The O3 mixing ratio in the NYC urban plumes remained at 80–90 ppbv during nocturnal transport over the stable MBL, then grew to over 100 ppbv by daytime oxidation of nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2 with mixing ratios on the order of 1 ppbv. Efficient transport of reactive nitrogen species (NOy, specifically nitric

  18. Validated predictive modelling of the environmental resistome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amos, Gregory C A; Gozzard, Emma; Carter, Charlotte E; Mead, Andrew; Bowes, Mike J; Hawkey, Peter M; Zhang, Lihong; Singer, Andrew C; Gaze, William H; Wellington, Elizabeth M H

    2015-06-01

    Multi-drug-resistant bacteria pose a significant threat to public health. The role of the environment in the overall rise in antibiotic-resistant infections and risk to humans is largely unknown. This study aimed to evaluate drivers of antibiotic-resistance levels across the River Thames catchment, model key biotic, spatial and chemical variables and produce predictive models for future risk assessment. Sediment samples from 13 sites across the River Thames basin were taken at four time points across 2011 and 2012. Samples were analysed for class 1 integron prevalence and enumeration of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant bacteria. Class 1 integron prevalence was validated as a molecular marker of antibiotic resistance; levels of resistance showed significant geospatial and temporal variation. The main explanatory variables of resistance levels at each sample site were the number, proximity, size and type of surrounding wastewater-treatment plants. Model 1 revealed treatment plants accounted for 49.5% of the variance in resistance levels. Other contributing factors were extent of different surrounding land cover types (for example, Neutral Grassland), temporal patterns and prior rainfall; when modelling all variables the resulting model (Model 2) could explain 82.9% of variations in resistance levels in the whole catchment. Chemical analyses correlated with key indicators of treatment plant effluent and a model (Model 3) was generated based on water quality parameters (contaminant and macro- and micro-nutrient levels). Model 2 was beta tested on independent sites and explained over 78% of the variation in integron prevalence showing a significant predictive ability. We believe all models in this study are highly useful tools for informing and prioritising mitigation strategies to reduce the environmental resistome.

  19. Lithospheric thickness jumps at the S-Atlantic continental margins from satellite gravity data and modelled isostatic anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahraki, Meysam; Schmeling, Harro; Haas, Peter

    2018-01-01

    Isostatic equilibrium is a good approximation for passive continental margins. In these regions, geoid anomalies are proportional to the local dipole moment of density-depth distributions, which can be used to constrain the amount of oceanic to continental lithospheric thickening (lithospheric jumps). We consider a five- or three-layer 1D model for the oceanic and continental lithosphere, respectively, composed of water, a sediment layer (both for the oceanic case), the crust, the mantle lithosphere and the asthenosphere. The mantle lithosphere is defined by a mantle density, which is a function of temperature and composition, due to melt depletion. In addition, a depth-dependent sediment density associated with compaction and ocean floor variation is adopted. We analyzed satellite derived geoid data and, after filtering, extracted typical averaged profiles across the Western and Eastern passive margins of the South Atlantic. They show geoid jumps of 8.1 m and 7.0 m for the Argentinian and African sides, respectively. Together with topography data and an averaged crustal density at the conjugate margins these jumps are interpreted as isostatic geoid anomalies and yield best-fitting crustal and lithospheric thicknesses. In a grid search approach five parameters are systematically varied, namely the thicknesses of the sediment layer, the oceanic and continental crusts and the oceanic and the continental mantle lithosphere. The set of successful models reveals a clear asymmetry between the South Africa and Argentine lithospheres by 15 km. Preferred models predict a sediment layer at the Argentine margin of 3-6 km and at the South Africa margin of 1-2.5 km. Moreover, we derived a linear relationship between, oceanic lithosphere, sediment thickness and lithospheric jumps at the South Atlantic margins. It suggests that the continental lithospheres on the western and eastern South Atlantic are thicker by 45-70 and 60-80 km than the oceanic lithospheres, respectively.

  20. Global Warming In A Regional Model of The Atlantic Ocean - Echam4/opyc3 In Flame 4/3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweckendiek, U.; Willebrand, J.

    The reaction of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) in most climate models on global warming scenarios is a weakening of the THC. An exception is the ECHAM4/OPYC3 simulation whose stable behaviour is traced back to a strongly enhanced evaporation and as a consequence to a development of a salt anomaly in the tropics and subtropics of the Atlantic Ocean (Latif et al.,2000). This salt signal is advected into convection regions and compensates the reduction of surface density due to surface heating and freshening. To examine this scenario for a more realistic ocean model, data from this model is used to drive a reginal model of the Atlantic Ocean. In order to test the crucial mechanisms for the maintainance of the meridional overturning, we have performed sensitivity studies by focussing on different combinations of the anomalous freshwater and heat fluxes. The results demonstrate that for the stabilising effect to become effective the salt sig- nal has to enter the GIN-Seas and subsequently the overflow waters, underlining the importance of the overflows for the THC. The Labrador Sea Convection is however uneffected by this stabilising salt signal and its convection ultimatly breaks down un- der surface warming and freshening.

  1. Challenges in integrative approaches to modelling the marine ecosystems of the North Atlantic: Physics to fish and coasts to ocean

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holt, Jason; Icarus Allen, J.; Anderson, Thomas R.

    2014-01-01

    It has long been recognised that there are strong interactions and feedbacks between climate, upper ocean biogeochemistry and marine food webs, and also that food web structure and phytoplankton community distribution are important determinants of variability in carbon production and export from...... for quantitative tools to support ecosystem-based management initiatives. The purpose of this paper is to review approaches to the modelling of marine ecosystems with a focus on the North Atlantic Ocean and its adjacent shelf seas, and to highlight the challenges they face and suggest ways forward. We consider...

  2. A data model for environmental scientists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapeljushnik, O.; Beran, B.; Valentine, D.; van Ingen, C.; Zaslavsky, I.; Whitenack, T.

    2008-12-01

    Environmental science encompasses a wide range of disciplines from water chemistry to microbiology, ecology and atmospheric sciences. Studies often require working across disciplines which differ in their ways of describing and storing data such that it is not possible to devise a monolithic one-size-fits-all data solution. Based on our experiences with Consortium of the Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science Inc. (CUAHSI) Observations Data Model, Berkeley Water Center FLUXNET carbon-climate work and by examining standards like EPA's Water Quality Exchange (WQX), we have developed a flexible data model that allows extensions without need to altering the schema such that scientists can define custom metadata elements to describe their data including observations, analysis methods as well as sensors and geographical features. The data model supports various types of observations including fixed point and moving sensors, bottled samples, rasters from remote sensors and models, and categorical descriptions (e.g. taxonomy) by employing user-defined-types when necessary. It leverages ADO .NET Entity Framework to provide the semantic data models for differing disciplines, while maintaining a common schema below the entity layer. This abstraction layer simplifies data retrieval and manipulation by hiding the logic and complexity of the relational schema from users thus allows programmers and scientists to deal directly with objects such as observations, sensors, watersheds, river reaches, channel cross-sections, laboratory analysis methods and samples as opposed to table joins, columns and rows.

  3. Local Prediction Models on Mid-Atlantic Ridge MORB by Principal Component Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, X.; Snow, J. E.; Chin, W.

    2017-12-01

    The isotopic compositions of the daughter isotopes of long-lived radioactive systems (Sr, Nd, Hf and Pb ) can be used to map the scale and history of mantle heterogeneities beneath mid-ocean ridges. Our goal is to relate the multidimensional structure in the existing isotopic dataset with an underlying physical reality of mantle sources. The numerical technique of Principal Component Analysis is useful to reduce the linear dependence of the data to a minimum set of orthogonal eigenvectors encapsulating the information contained (cf Agranier et al 2005). The dataset used for this study covers almost all the MORBs along mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR), from 54oS to 77oN and 8.8oW to -46.7oW, including replicating the dataset of Agranier et al., 2005 published plus 53 basalt samples dredged and analyzed since then (data from PetDB). The principal components PC1 and PC2 account for 61.56% and 29.21%, respectively, of the total isotope ratios variability. The samples with similar compositions to HIMU and EM and DM are identified to better understand the PCs. PC1 and PC2 are accountable for HIMU and EM whereas PC2 has limited control over the DM source. PC3 is more strongly controlled by the depleted mantle source than PC2. What this means is that all three principal components have a high degree of significance relevant to the established mantle sources. We also tested the relationship between mantle heterogeneity and sample locality. K-means clustering algorithm is a type of unsupervised learning to find groups in the data based on feature similarity. The PC factor scores of each sample are clustered into three groups. Cluster one and three are alternating on the north and south MAR. Cluster two exhibits on 45.18oN to 0.79oN and -27.9oW to -30.40oW alternating with cluster one. The ridge has been preliminarily divided into 16 sections considering both the clusters and ridge segments. The principal component regression models the section based on 6 isotope ratios and PCs. The

  4. Genetic factors have a major effect on growth, number of vertebrae and otolith shape in Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Florian; Almeland, Oda W; Skadal, Julie; Slotte, Aril; Andersson, Leif; Folkvord, Arild

    2018-01-01

    Atlantic herring, Clupea harengus, have complex population structures. Mixing of populations is known, but the extent of connectivity is still unclear. Phenotypic plasticity results in divergent phenotypes in response to environmental factors. A marked salinity gradient occurs from Atlantic Ocean (salinity 35) into the Baltic Sea (salinity range 2-12). Herring from both habitats display phenotypic and genetic variability. To explore how genetic factors and salinity influence phenotypic traits like growth, number of vertebrae and otolith shape an experimental population consisting of Atlantic purebreds and Atlantic/Baltic F1 hybrids were incubated and co-reared at two different salinities, 16 and 35, for three years. The F1-generation was repeatedly sampled to evaluate temporal variation. A von Bertalanffy growth model indicated that reared Atlantic purebreds had a higher maximum length (26.2 cm) than Atlantic/Baltic hybrids (24.8 cm) at salinity 35, but not at salinity 16 (25.0 and 24.8 cm, respectively). In contrast, Atlantic/Baltic hybrids achieved larger size-at-age than the wild caught Baltic parental group. Mean vertebral counts and otolith aspect ratios were higher for reared Atlantic purebreds than Atlantic/Baltic hybrids, consistent with the differences between parental groups. There were no significant differences in vertebral counts and otolith aspect ratios between herring with the same genotype but raised in different salinities. A Canonical Analysis of Principal Coordinates was applied to analyze the variation in wavelet coefficients that described otolith shape. The first discriminating axis identified the differences between Atlantic purebreds and Atlantic/Baltic hybrids, while the second axis represented salinity differences. Assigning otoliths based on genetic groups (Atlantic purebreds vs. Atlantic/Baltic hybrids) yielded higher classification success (~90%) than based on salinities (16 vs. 35; ~60%). Our results demonstrate that otolith shape and

  5. Genetic factors have a major effect on growth, number of vertebrae and otolith shape in Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florian Berg

    Full Text Available Atlantic herring, Clupea harengus, have complex population structures. Mixing of populations is known, but the extent of connectivity is still unclear. Phenotypic plasticity results in divergent phenotypes in response to environmental factors. A marked salinity gradient occurs from Atlantic Ocean (salinity 35 into the Baltic Sea (salinity range 2-12. Herring from both habitats display phenotypic and genetic variability. To explore how genetic factors and salinity influence phenotypic traits like growth, number of vertebrae and otolith shape an experimental population consisting of Atlantic purebreds and Atlantic/Baltic F1 hybrids were incubated and co-reared at two different salinities, 16 and 35, for three years. The F1-generation was repeatedly sampled to evaluate temporal variation. A von Bertalanffy growth model indicated that reared Atlantic purebreds had a higher maximum length (26.2 cm than Atlantic/Baltic hybrids (24.8 cm at salinity 35, but not at salinity 16 (25.0 and 24.8 cm, respectively. In contrast, Atlantic/Baltic hybrids achieved larger size-at-age than the wild caught Baltic parental group. Mean vertebral counts and otolith aspect ratios were higher for reared Atlantic purebreds than Atlantic/Baltic hybrids, consistent with the differences between parental groups. There were no significant differences in vertebral counts and otolith aspect ratios between herring with the same genotype but raised in different salinities. A Canonical Analysis of Principal Coordinates was applied to analyze the variation in wavelet coefficients that described otolith shape. The first discriminating axis identified the differences between Atlantic purebreds and Atlantic/Baltic hybrids, while the second axis represented salinity differences. Assigning otoliths based on genetic groups (Atlantic purebreds vs. Atlantic/Baltic hybrids yielded higher classification success (~90% than based on salinities (16 vs. 35; ~60%. Our results demonstrate that

  6. School environmental conditions and links to academic performance and absenteeism in urban, mid-Atlantic public schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, J D; McCormack, M C; Koehler, K A; Connolly, F; Clemons-Erby, D; Davis, M F; Gummerson, C; Leaf, P J; Jones, T D; Curriero, F C

    2018-05-02

    School facility conditions, environment, and perceptions of safety and learning have been investigated for their impact on child development. However, it is important to consider how the environment separately influences academic performance and attendance after controlling for school and community factors. Using results from the Maryland School Assessment, we considered outcomes of school-level proficiency in reading and math plus attendance and chronic absences, defined as missing 20 or more days, for grades 3-5 and 6-8 at 158 urban schools. Characteristics of the environment included school facility conditions, density of nearby roads, and an index industrial air pollution. Perceptions of school safety, learning, and institutional environment were acquired from a School Climate Survey. Also considered were neighborhood factors at the community statistical area, including demographics, crime, and poverty based on school location. Poisson regression adjusted for over-dispersion was used to model academic achievement and multiple linear models were used for attendance. Each 10-unit change in facility condition index, denoting worse quality buildings, was associated with a decrease in reading (1.0% (95% CI: 0.1-1.9%) and math scores (0.21% (95% CI: 0.20-0.40), while chronic absences increased by 0.75% (95% CI: 0.30-1.39). Each log increase the EPA's Risk Screening Environmental Indicator (RSEI) value for industrial hazards, resulted in a marginally significant trend of increasing absenteeism (p < 0.06), but no association was observed with academic achievement. All results were robust to school-level measures of racial composition, free and reduced meals eligibility, and community poverty and crime. These findings provide empirical evidence for the importance of the community and school environment, including building conditions and neighborhood toxic substance risk, on academic achievement and attendance. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  7. An electricity and environmental policy model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanson, D.A.

    1993-01-01

    This paper describes work being done to simulate the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA), Title IV, Acidic Deposition Control, which introduced tradable, bankable SO 2 emission allowances. The Title IV simulations are compared with three other scenarios on a regional basis in order to calculate the following: the absolute cost savings of the tradable/ bankable approach, the relative cost savings of the tradable/ bankable approach derived from a baseline of no controls, the environmental improvement, measured in terms of SO 2 emission reduction, that will be achieved under Title IV compared with a more rigid command-and-control regulation with the same cost. Hence, the simulations illustrate the basic point that more efficient market-based regulation can either reduce costs or can provide enhanced environmental quality, or both. It is important for policy formation to get a handle on relative magnitudes. The National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP) 1990 Assessment suggested a 25% cost saving from tradable emission allowances relative to command-and-control. Both the relative savings potential and the absolute savings potential matter because a small relative savings in a large regulatory program may still be worth pursuing. Regional cost reductions and environmental improvements are of particular interest. However, this study goes further to characterize likely SO 2 emission trading patterns within and among utility operating systems. The study also characterizes the coal market and the induced sulfur premiums over time and the market price path for SO 2 emission allowances. It is shown that the sulfur premium is equivalent to the SO 2 allowance price. This paper focuses on the methodology and on the new electric utility planning and compliance model which was designed for the study

  8. Environmental flows in hydro-economic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereau, Jean-Christophe; Pryet, Alexandre

    2018-03-01

    The protection of environmental flows, as a management objective for a regulating agency, needs to be consistent with the aquifer water balance and the degree of resource renewability. A stylized hydro-economic model is used where natural recharge, which sustains environmental flows, is considered both in the aquifer water budget and in the welfare function as ecosystem damage. Groundwater recharge and the associated natural drainage may be neglected for aquifers containing fossil water, where the groundwater is mined. However, when dealing with an aquifer that constitutes a renewable resource, for which recharge is not negligible, natural drainage should explicitly appear in the water budget. In doing so, the optimum path of net extraction rate does not necessarily converge to the recharge rate, but depends on the costs associated with ecosystem damages. The optimal paths and equilibrium values for the water volume and water extraction are analytically derived, and numerical simulations based on the Western La Mancha aquifer (southwest Spain) illustrate the theoretical results of the study.

  9. The relation between AMOC, gyre circulation, and meridional heat transports in the North Atlantic in model simulations of the last millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jungclaus, Johann; Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo; Lohmann, Katja

    2016-04-01

    While it is clear that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is responsible for meridional heat transfer from the South Atlantic and the tropics to the North Atlantic, the majority of the heat transport in the northern North Atlantic and the Nordic seas is carried by the gyre system. However, the detailed mechanisms determining the interaction between and the temporal modulation of the components of the northward heat transport system are not clear. Long-term climate records and model simulations can help to identify important processes and to provide background for the changes that are presently observed. Multi-centennial proxy records from the subpolar North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas indicate, for example, an out-of-phase behavior of sea surface temperature and gyre circulation between the two regions with consequences for regional climate. Paleoceanographic evidence from Fram Strait shows a pronounced modulation of heat transfer to the Arctic by the Atlantic Water layer during the last 2000 years and reconstructions from the Subpolar North Atlantic suggest a role of ocean circulation in the transition between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age. Here we explore a small ensemble of last millennium simulations, carried out with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, and analyze mechanisms connecting the AMOC and gyre circulation and their relation to external forcing. Our results support the important role of the Subpolar Gyre strength and the related meridional mass and temperature fluxes. We find that the modulation of the northward heat transport into the Nordic Seas and the Arctic has pronounced impact on sea-ice distribution, ocean-atmosphere interaction, and the surface climate in Scandinavia and Western Europe.

  10. Duration of effects of acute environmental changes on food anticipatory behaviour, feed intake, oxygen consumption, and cortisol release in Atlantic salmon parr.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folkedal, Ole; Torgersen, Thomas; Olsen, Rolf Erik; Fernö, Anders; Nilsson, Jonatan; Oppedal, Frode; Stien, Lars H; Kristiansen, Tore S

    2012-01-18

    We compared behavioural and physiological responses and recovery time after different acute environmental challenges in groups of salmon parr. The fish were prior to the study conditioned to a flashing light signalling arrival of food 30 s later to study if the strength of Pavlovian conditioned food anticipatory behaviour can be used to assess how salmon parr cope with various challenges. The effect on anticipatory behaviour was compared to the effect on feed intake and physiological responses of oxygen hyper-consumption and cortisol excretion. The challenges were temperature fluctuation (6.5C° over 4 h), hyperoxia (up to 380% O(2) saturation over 4 h), and intense chasing for 10 min. Cortisol excretion was only elevated after hyperoxia and chasing, and returned to baseline levels after around 3 h or less. Oxygen hyper-consumption persisted for even shorter periods. Feed intake was reduced the first feeding after all challenges and recovered within 3 h after temperature and hyperoxia, but was reduced for days after chasing. Food anticipatory behaviour was reduced for a longer period than feed intake after hyperoxia and was low at least 6 h after chasing. Our findings suggest that a recovery of challenged Atlantic salmon parr to baseline levels of cortisol excretion and oxygen consumption does not mean full recovery of all psychological and physiological effects of environmental challenges, and emphasise the need for measuring several factors including behavioural parameters when assessing fish welfare. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Developing an Event-Tree Probabilistic Tsunami Inundation Model for NE Atlantic Coasts: Application to a Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omira, R.; Matias, L.; Baptista, M. A.

    2016-12-01

    This study constitutes a preliminary assessment of probabilistic tsunami inundation in the NE Atlantic region. We developed an event-tree approach to calculate the likelihood of tsunami flood occurrence and exceedance of a specific near-shore wave height for a given exposure time. Only tsunamis of tectonic origin are considered here, taking into account local, regional, and far-field sources. The approach used here consists of an event-tree method that gathers probability models for seismic sources, tsunami numerical modeling, and statistical methods. It also includes a treatment of aleatoric uncertainties related to source location and tidal stage. Epistemic uncertainties are not addressed in this study. The methodology is applied to the coastal test-site of Sines located in the NE Atlantic coast of Portugal. We derive probabilistic high-resolution maximum wave amplitudes and flood distributions for the study test-site considering 100- and 500-year exposure times. We find that the probability that maximum wave amplitude exceeds 1 m somewhere along the Sines coasts reaches about 60 % for an exposure time of 100 years and is up to 97 % for an exposure time of 500 years. The probability of inundation occurrence (flow depth >0 m) varies between 10 % and 57 %, and from 20 % up to 95 % for 100- and 500-year exposure times, respectively. No validation has been performed here with historical tsunamis. This paper illustrates a methodology through a case study, which is not an operational assessment.

  12. Current status of deepwater oil spill modelling in the Faroe-Shetland Channel, Northeast Atlantic, and future challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallego, Alejandro; O'Hara Murray, Rory; Berx, Barbara; Turrell, William R; Beegle-Krause, C J; Inall, Mark; Sherwin, Toby; Siddorn, John; Wakelin, Sarah; Vlasenko, Vasyl; Hole, Lars R; Dagestad, Knut Frode; Rees, John; Short, Lucy; Rønningen, Petter; Main, Charlotte E; Legrand, Sebastien; Gutierrez, Tony; Witte, Ursula; Mulanaphy, Nicole

    2018-02-01

    As oil reserves in established basins become depleted, exploration and production moves towards relatively unexploited areas, such as deep waters off the continental shelf. The Faroe-Shetland Channel (FSC, NE Atlantic) and adjacent areas have been subject to increased focus by the oil industry. In addition to extreme depths, metocean conditions in this region characterise an environment with high waves and strong winds, strong currents, complex circulation patterns, sharp density gradients, and large small- and mesoscale variability. These conditions pose operational challenges to oil spill response and question the suitability of current oil spill modelling frameworks (oil spill models and their forcing data) to adequately simulate the behaviour of a potential oil spill in the area. This article reviews the state of knowledge relevant to deepwater oil spill modelling for the FSC area and identifies knowledge gaps and research priorities. Our analysis should be relevant to other areas of complex oceanography. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Biodiversity patterns, environmental drivers and indicator species on a High-temperature Hydrothermal edifice, mid-Atlantic ridge

    KAUST Repository

    Sarrazin, Jozé e; Legendre, Pierre; Busserolles, Fanny de; Fabri, Marie-Claire; Guilini, Katja; Ivanenko, Viatcheslav N.; Morineaux, Marie; Vanreusel, Ann; Sarradin, Pierre-Marie

    2015-01-01

    . Environmental conditions showed more variation in the warm microhabitats than in the cold microhabitats. In terms of fauna, the warm microhabitats had lower macro- and meiofaunal densities, and lower richness and Shannon diversity than the cold microhabitats

  14. A software engineering perspective on environmental modeling framework design: The object modeling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    The environmental modeling community has historically been concerned with the proliferation of models and the effort associated with collective model development tasks (e.g., code generation, data provisioning and transformation, etc.). Environmental modeling frameworks (EMFs) have been developed to...

  15. Predicting People's Environmental Behaviour: Theory of Planned Behaviour and Model of Responsible Environmental Behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Yu-Long

    2012-01-01

    Using different measures of self-reported and other-reported environmental behaviour (EB), two important theoretical models explaining EB--Hines, Hungerford and Tomera's model of responsible environmental behaviour (REB) and Ajzen's theory of planned behaviour (TPB)--were compared regarding the fit between model and data, predictive ability,…

  16. Physical modelling and testing in environmental geotechnics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garnier, J.; Thorel, L.; Haza, E.

    2000-01-01

    The preservation of natural environment has become a major concern, which affects nowadays a wide range of professionals from local communities administrators to natural resources managers (water, wildlife, flora, etc) and, in the end, to the consumers that we all are. Although totally ignored some fifty years ago, environmental geotechnics has become an emergent area of study and research which borders on the traditional domains, with which the geo-technicians are confronted (soil and rock mechanics, engineering geology, natural and anthropogenic risk management). Dedicated to experimental approaches (in-situ investigations and tests, laboratory tests, small-scale model testing), the Symposium fits in with the geotechnical domains of environment and transport of soil pollutants. These proceedings report some progress of developments in measurement techniques and studies of transport of pollutants in saturated and unsaturated soils in order to improve our understanding of such phenomena within multiphase environments. Experimental investigations on decontamination and isolation methods for polluted soils are discussed. The intention is to assess the impact of in-situ and laboratory tests, as well as small-scale model testing, on engineering practice. One paper is analysed in INIS data base for its specific interest in nuclear industry. The other ones, concerning the energy, are analyzed in ETDE data base

  17. Integrated Environmental Modelling: Human decisions, human challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glynn, Pierre D.

    2015-01-01

    Integrated Environmental Modelling (IEM) is an invaluable tool for understanding the complex, dynamic ecosystems that house our natural resources and control our environments. Human behaviour affects the ways in which the science of IEM is assembled and used for meaningful societal applications. In particular, human biases and heuristics reflect adaptation and experiential learning to issues with frequent, sharply distinguished, feedbacks. Unfortunately, human behaviour is not adapted to the more diffusely experienced problems that IEM typically seeks to address. Twelve biases are identified that affect IEM (and science in general). These biases are supported by personal observations and by the findings of behavioural scientists. A process for critical analysis is proposed that addresses some human challenges of IEM and solicits explicit description of (1) represented processes and information, (2) unrepresented processes and information, and (3) accounting for, and cognizance of, potential human biases. Several other suggestions are also made that generally complement maintaining attitudes of watchful humility, open-mindedness, honesty and transparent accountability. These suggestions include (1) creating a new area of study in the behavioural biogeosciences, (2) using structured processes for engaging the modelling and stakeholder communities in IEM, and (3) using ‘red teams’ to increase resilience of IEM constructs and use.

  18. Physical modelling and testing in environmental geotechnics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garnier, J.; Thorel, L.; Haza, E. [Laboratoire Central des Ponts et Chaussees a Nantes, 44 - Nantes (France)

    2000-07-01

    The preservation of natural environment has become a major concern, which affects nowadays a wide range of professionals from local communities administrators to natural resources managers (water, wildlife, flora, etc) and, in the end, to the consumers that we all are. Although totally ignored some fifty years ago, environmental geotechnics has become an emergent area of study and research which borders on the traditional domains, with which the geo-technicians are confronted (soil and rock mechanics, engineering geology, natural and anthropogenic risk management). Dedicated to experimental approaches (in-situ investigations and tests, laboratory tests, small-scale model testing), the Symposium fits in with the geotechnical domains of environment and transport of soil pollutants. These proceedings report some progress of developments in measurement techniques and studies of transport of pollutants in saturated and unsaturated soils in order to improve our understanding of such phenomena within multiphase environments. Experimental investigations on decontamination and isolation methods for polluted soils are discussed. The intention is to assess the impact of in-situ and laboratory tests, as well as small-scale model testing, on engineering practice. One paper has been analyzed in INIS data base for its specific interest in nuclear industry.

  19. A51F-0123: Model Analysis of Tropospheric Aerosol Variability and Sources over the North Atlantic During NAAMES 2015-2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hongyu; Moore, Richard; Hostetler, Chris A.; Ferrare, Richard Anthony; Fairlie, Thomas Duncan; Hu, Youngxiang; Chen, Gao; Hair, Johnathan W.; Johnson, Matthew S.

    2016-01-01

    The North Atlantic Aerosols and Marine Ecosystems Study (NAAMES) is a five-year Earth-Venture Suborbital-2 Mission to characterize the plankton ecosystems and their influences on remote marine aerosols, boundary layer clouds, and their implications for climate in the North Atlantic. While marine-sourced aerosols have been shown to make important contributions to surface aerosol loading, cloud condensation nuclei and ice nuclei concentrations over remote marine and coastal regions, it is still a challenge to differentiate the marine biogenic aerosol signal from the strong influence of continental pollution outflow. We examine here the spatiotemporal variability and quantify the sources of tropospheric aerosols over the North Atlantic during the first two phases (November 2015 and May-June 2016) of NAAMES using a state-of-the-art chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). The model is driven by the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). It includes sulfate-nitrate-ammonium aerosol thermodynamics coupled to ozone-NOx-hydrocarbon-aerosol chemistry, mineral dust, sea salt, elemental and organic carbon aerosols, and especially a recently implemented parameterization for the marine primary organic aerosol emission. The simulated aerosols over the North Atlantic are evaluated with available satellite (e.g., MODIS) observations of aerosol optical depths (AOD), and aircraft and ship aerosol measurements. We diagnose transport pathways for continental pollution outflow over the North Atlantic using carbon monoxide, an excellent tracer for anthropogenic pollution transport. We also conduct model perturbation experiments to quantify the relative contributions of terrestrial and oceanic sources to the aerosol loading, AOD, and their variability over the North Atlantic.

  20. Model Fusion Tool - the Open Environmental Modelling Platform Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, H.; Giles, J. R.

    2010-12-01

    The vision of an Open Environmental Modelling Platform - seamlessly linking geoscience data, concepts and models to aid decision making in times of environmental change. Governments and their executive agencies across the world are facing increasing pressure to make decisions about the management of resources in light of population growth and environmental change. In the UK for example, groundwater is becoming a scarce resource for large parts of its most densely populated areas. At the same time river and groundwater flooding resulting from high rainfall events are increasing in scale and frequency and sea level rise is threatening the defences of coastal cities. There is also a need for affordable housing, improved transport infrastructure and waste disposal as well as sources of renewable energy and sustainable food production. These challenges can only be resolved if solutions are based on sound scientific evidence. Although we have knowledge and understanding of many individual processes in the natural sciences it is clear that a single science discipline is unable to answer the questions and their inter-relationships. Modern science increasingly employs computer models to simulate the natural, economic and human system. Management and planning requires scenario modelling, forecasts and ‘predictions’. Although the outputs are often impressive in terms of apparent accuracy and visualisation, they are inherently not suited to simulate the response to feedbacks from other models of the earth system, such as the impact of human actions. Geological Survey Organisations (GSO) are increasingly employing advances in Information Technology to visualise and improve their understanding of geological systems. Instead of 2 dimensional paper maps and reports many GSOs now produce 3 dimensional geological framework models and groundwater flow models as their standard output. Additionally the British Geological Survey have developed standard routines to link geological

  1. Developing New Modelling Tools for Environmental Flow Assessment in Regulated Salmon Rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geris, Josie; Soulsby, Chris; Tetzlaff, Doerthe

    2013-04-01

    of the natural flow variability and the hydrological impacts of the regulation is unavailable, partly because pre-regulation data of existing hydropower schemes are lacking. Here we develop a novel modelling approach for characterising natural flow regimes and defining hydrological flow indices. This allows us to quantitatively assess the impacts of hydropower to better inform environmental flow requirements for the Atlantic salmon river ecosystem. Results are presented for the River Lyon (390 km2), a regulated headwater catchment of the River Tay. The HBV hydrological rainfall-runoff model is used to simulate flows, based on calibrated parameters from regulated flow data, with the current hydropower scheme active. For this, the HBV model is adapted to be able to incorporate water transfers and regulated flows. The natural hydrological indices are derived from the simulated pre-regulation data, and compared with those of the regulated data to investigate the impact of the regulation on these at different critical times for Atlantic salmon. The sensitivity of the system to change is also investigated to explore the extent to which flow variables can be modified without major degradation to the river's ecosystem, while still maintaining viable hydropower generation. The modelling approach presented will provide the basis for assessing impacts on hydrological flow indices and informing environmental flows in regions with similar heavily regulated mountain river ecosystems.

  2. A Survey of Precipitation Data for Environmental Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report explores the types of precipitation data available for environmental modeling. Precipitation is the main driver in the hydrological cycle and modelers use this information to understand water quality and water availability. Models use observed precipitation informatio...

  3. Alleviating tropical Atlantic sector biases in the Kiel climate model by enhancing horizontal and vertical atmosphere model resolution: climatology and interannual variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harlaß, Jan; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

    2018-04-01

    We investigate the quality of simulating tropical Atlantic (TA) sector climatology and interannual variability in integrations of the Kiel climate model (KCM) with varying atmosphere model resolution. The ocean model resolution is kept fixed. A reasonable simulation of TA sector annual-mean climate, seasonal cycle and interannual variability can only be achieved at sufficiently high horizontal and vertical atmospheric resolution. Two major reasons for the improvements are identified. First, the western equatorial Atlantic westerly surface wind bias in spring can be largely eliminated, which is explained by a better representation of meridional and especially vertical zonal momentum transport. The enhanced atmospheric circulation along the equator in turn greatly improves the thermal structure of the upper equatorial Atlantic with much reduced warm sea surface temperature (SST) biases. Second, the coastline in the southeastern TA and steep orography are better resolved at high resolution, which improves wind structure and in turn reduces warm SST biases in the Benguela upwelling region. The strongly diminished wind and SST biases at high atmosphere model resolution allow for a more realistic latitudinal position of the intertropical convergence zone. Resulting stronger cross-equatorial winds, in conjunction with a shallower thermocline, enable a rapid cold tongue development in the eastern TA in boreal spring. This enables simulation of realistic interannual SST variability and its seasonal phase locking in the KCM, which primarily is the result of a stronger thermocline feedback. Our findings suggest that enhanced atmospheric resolution, both vertical and horizontal, could be a key to achieving more realistic simulation of TA climatology and interannual variability in climate models.

  4. Environmental implication of subaqueous lava flows from a continental Large Igneous Province: Examples from the Moroccan Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Ghilani, S.; Youbi, N.; Madeira, J.; Chellai, E. H.; López-Galindo, A.; Martins, L.; Mata, J.

    2017-03-01

    The Late Triassic-Early Jurassic volcanic sequence of the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP) of Morocco is classically subdivided into four stratigraphic units: the Lower, Middle, Upper and Recurrent Formations separated by intercalated sediments deposited during short hiatuses in volcanic activity. Although corresponding to a Large Igneous Province formed in continental environment, it contains subaqueous lava flows, including dominant pillowed flows but also occasional sheet flows. We present a study of the morphology, structure and morphometry of subaqueous lava flows from three sections located at the Marrakech High-Atlas (regions of Aït-Ourir, Jbel Imzar and Oued Lhar-Herissane), as well as an analysis of the sediments, in order to characterize them and to understand their environmental meaning. The analysis of clays by the diffraction method X-ray revealed the presence of illite, mica, phengite, céladonite, talc and small amounts of quartz, hematite, calcite and feldspar, as well as two pairs of interbedded irregular (chlorite Smectite/chlorite-Mica). Fibrous minerals such as sepiolite and palygorskite were not detected. The peperite of Herissane region (Central High Atlas) provided an excellent overview on the factors favoring the magma-sediment interaction. These are the products of a mixture of unconsolidated or poorly consolidated sediments, low permeability with a low viscosity magma. The attempt of dating palynology proved unfortunately without results.

  5. Appendix D of the Final Report of the Mid-Atlantic Marine Wildlife Surveys, Modeling, and Data. Workshop to Establish Coordination and Communication

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2013-07-01

    The Wind Program hosted a two-day workshop on July 24-25, 2012 with scientists and regulators engaged in marine ecological survey, modeling, and database efforts pertaining to the waters of the Mid-Atlantic region. This is the fourth appendix to the report, the presentations from the workshop.

  6. National Environmental Policy Act guidance: A model process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angle, B.M.; Lockhart, V.A.T.; Sema, B.; Tuott, L.C.; Irving, J.S.

    1995-04-01

    The ''Model National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Process'' includes: References to regulations, guidance documents, and plans; training programs; procedures; and computer databases. Legislative Acts and reference documents from Congress, US Department of Energy, and Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company provide the bases for conducting NEPA at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company (LITCO) NEPA / Permitting Department, the Contractor Environmental Organization (CEO) is responsible for developing and maintaining LITCO NEPA and permitting policies, guidance, and procedures. The CEO develops procedures to conduct environmental evaluations based on NEPA, Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) regulations, and DOE guidance. This procedure includes preparation or support of environmental checklists, categorical exclusion determinations, environmental assessment determinations, environmental assessments, and environmental impact statements. In addition, the CEO uses this information to train personnel conducting environmental evaluations at the INEL. Streamlining these procedures fosters efficient use of resources, quality documents, and better decisions on proposed actions

  7. Analysis of a general circulation model. II - Distribution of kinetic energy in the South Atlantic and Kuroshio/Oyashio systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garraffo, Zulema; Garzoli, Silvia L.; Haxby, William; Olson, Donald

    1992-01-01

    It was found (Garzoli et al., 1992) that the general circulation model of Semtner and Chervin (1992) provides accurate descriptions of the Brazil-Malvinas and the Kuroshio/Oyashio confluence systems, except for the fact that the model prediction shows less variability than that present in observations. This paper investigates the problem of model variability by analyzing the mean and the eddy kinetic energy from the model and comparing the values with the Geosat altimeter observations for the South Atlantic Ocean and for the Kuroshio system. It is found that, while the model shows transient eddy activity in the areas that overlap the Geosat observations, the energy level of the model transient motions is considerably smaller following an arch along the bottom topography. The same was found from the comparisons made with values obtained from FGGE and surface drifters. It is suggested that the model is poorly resolving instabilities in the confluence front, and is not resolving other transients appearing in regions of marked topography.

  8. Mechanisms of decadal variability in the Labrador Sea and the wider North Atlantic in a high-resolution climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortega, Pablo; Robson, Jon; Sutton, Rowan T.; Andrews, Martin B.

    2017-10-01

    A necessary step before assessing the performance of decadal predictions is the evaluation of the processes that bring memory to the climate system, both in climate models and observations. These mechanisms are particularly relevant in the North Atlantic, where the ocean circulation, related to both the Subpolar Gyre and the Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), is thought to be important for driving significant heat content anomalies. Recently, a rapid decline in observed densities in the deep Labrador Sea has pointed to an ongoing slowdown of the AMOC strength taking place since the mid 90s, a decline also hinted by in-situ observations from the RAPID array. This study explores the use of Labrador Sea densities as a precursor of the ocean circulation changes, by analysing a 300-year long simulation with the state-of-the-art coupled model HadGEM3-GC2. The major drivers of Labrador Sea density variability are investigated, and are characterised by three major contributions. First, the integrated effect of local surface heat fluxes, mainly driven by year-to-year changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation, which accounts for 62% of the total variance. Additionally, two multidecadal-to-centennial contributions from the Greenland-Scotland Ridge outflows are quantified; the first associated with freshwater exports via the East Greenland Current, and the second with density changes in the Denmark Strait Overflow. Finally, evidence is shown that decadal trends in Labrador Sea densities are followed by important atmospheric impacts. In particular, a positive winter NAO response appears to follow the negative Labrador Sea density trends, and provides a phase reversal mechanism.

  9. How does dynamical downscaling affect model biases and future projections of explosive extratropical cyclones along North America's Atlantic coast?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seiler, C.; Zwiers, F. W.; Hodges, K. I.; Scinocca, J. F.

    2018-01-01

    Explosive extratropical cyclones (EETCs) are rapidly intensifying low pressure systems that generate severe weather along North America's Atlantic coast. Global climate models (GCMs) tend to simulate too few EETCs, perhaps partly due to their coarse horizontal resolution and poorly resolved moist diabatic processes. This study explores whether dynamical downscaling can reduce EETC frequency biases, and whether this affects future projections of storms along North America's Atlantic coast. A regional climate model (CanRCM4) is forced with the CanESM2 GCM for the periods 1981 to 2000 and 2081 to 2100. EETCs are tracked from relative vorticity using an objective feature tracking algorithm. CanESM2 simulates 38% fewer EETC tracks compared to reanalysis data, which is consistent with a negative Eady growth rate bias (-0.1 day^{-1}). Downscaling CanESM2 with CanRCM4 increases EETC frequency by one third, which reduces the frequency bias to -22%, and increases maximum EETC precipitation by 22%. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing is projected to decrease EETC frequency (-15%, -18%) and Eady growth rate (-0.2 day^{-1}, -0.2 day^{-1}), and increase maximum EETC precipitation (46%, 52%) in CanESM2 and CanRCM4, respectively. The limited effect of dynamical downscaling on EETC frequency projections is consistent with the lack of impact on the maximum Eady growth rate. The coarse spatial resolution of GCMs presents an important limitation for simulating extreme ETCs, but Eady growth rate biases are likely just as relevant. Further bias reductions could be achieved by addressing processes that lead to an underestimation of lower tropospheric meridional temperature gradients.

  10. A model of Fe speciation and biogeochemistry at the Tropical Eastern North Atlantic Time-Series Observatory site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Y.; Völker, C.; Wolf-Gladrow, D. A.

    2009-10-01

    A one-dimensional model of Fe speciation and biogeochemistry, coupled with the General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) and a NPZD-type ecosystem model, is applied for the Tropical Eastern North Atlantic Time-Series Observatory (TENATSO) site. Among diverse processes affecting Fe speciation, this study is focusing on investigating the role of dust particles in removing dissolved iron (DFe) by a more complex description of particle aggregation and sinking, and explaining the abundance of organic Fe-binding ligands by modelling their origin and fate. The vertical distribution of different particle classes in the model shows high sensitivity to changing aggregation rates. Using the aggregation rates from the sensitivity study in this work, modelled particle fluxes are close to observations, with dust particles dominating near the surface and aggregates deeper in the water column. POC export at 1000 m is a little higher than regional sediment trap measurements, suggesting further improvement of modelling particle aggregation, sinking or remineralisation. Modelled strong ligands have a high abundance near the surface and decline rapidly below the deep chlorophyll maximum, showing qualitative similarity to observations. Without production of strong ligands, phytoplankton concentration falls to 0 within the first 2 years in the model integration, caused by strong Fe-limitation. A nudging of total weak ligands towards a constant value is required for reproducing the observed nutrient-like profiles, assuming a decay time of 7 years for weak ligands. This indicates that weak ligands have a longer decay time and therefore cannot be modelled adequately in a one-dimensional model. The modelled DFe profile is strongly influenced by particle concentration and vertical distribution, because the most important removal of DFe in deeper waters is colloid formation and aggregation. Redissolution of particulate iron is required to reproduce an observed DFe profile at TENATSO site

  11. The impact of environmental variability on Atlantic mackerel Scomber scombrus larval abundance to the west of the British Isles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pitois, Sophie G.; Jansen, Teunis; Pinnegar, John

    2015-01-01

    in the North Sea. We used a similar approach in the west and southwest area of the UK shelf and applied a principal component analysis (PCA) using 7 biotic and abiotic parameters, combined with Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA), to investigate the impact of environmental changes in the west and southwest...... that documents statistical correlations between environment and mackerel needs to be supplemented by local process studies, to gain more insight and to be able to predict mackerel response to climate change scenarios. Utilising the strength of the CPR dataset, namely its unique temporal coverage, in an analysis...

  12. Cellular Models for Environmental Toxicant Biomarker Discovery

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Halverson, Kelly M; Lewsis, John A; Jackson, David A; Dennis, William; Brennan, Linda; Krakaner, Teresa

    2006-01-01

    ...) is the development of biomarkers of exposure, effect, and susceptibility. As exposure monitoring using environmental sampling equipment can be impractical and doesn't account for differences in individual responses, new methodologies must be sought...

  13. Advanced aviation environmental modeling tools to inform policymakers

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-19

    Aviation environmental models which conform to international guidance have advanced : over the past several decades. Enhancements to algorithms and databases have increasingly : shown these models to compare well with gold standard measured data. The...

  14. A synthesis of the environmental response of the North and South Atlantic Sub-Tropical Gyres during two decades of AMT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aiken, Jim; Brewin, Robert J. W.; Dufois, Francois; Polimene, Luca; Hardman-Mountford, Nick J.; Jackson, Thomas; Loveday, Ben; Hoya, Silvana Mallor; Dall'Olmo, Giorgio; Stephens, John; Hirata, Takafumi

    2017-11-01

    Anthropogenically-induced global warming is expected to decrease primary productivity in the subtropical oceans by strengthening stratification of the water column and reducing the flux of nutrients from deep-waters to the sunlit surface layers. Identification of such changes is hindered by a paucity of long-term, spatially-resolved, biological time-series data at the basin scale. This paper exploits Atlantic Meridional Transect (AMT) data on physical and biogeochemical properties (1995-2014) in synergy with a wide range of remote-sensing (RS) observations from ocean colour, Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) and altimetry (surface currents), combined with different modelling approaches (both empirical and a coupled 1-D Ecosystem model), to produce a synthesis of the seasonal functioning of the North and South Atlantic Sub-Tropical Gyres (STGs), and assess their response to longer-term changes in climate. We explore definitive characteristics of the STGs using data of physical (SST, SSS and peripheral current systems) and biogeochemical variables (chlorophyll and nitrate), with inherent criteria (permanent thermal stratification and oligotrophy), and define the gyre boundary from a sharp gradient in these physical and biogeochemical properties. From RS data, the seasonal cycles for the period 1998-2012 show significant relationships between physical properties (SST and PAR) and gyre area. In contrast to expectations, the surface layer chlorophyll concentration from RS data (CHL) shows an upward trend for the mean values in both subtropical gyres. Furthermore, trends in physical properties (SST, PAR, gyre area) differ between the North and South STGs, suggesting the processes responsible for an upward trend in CHL may vary between gyres. There are significant anomalies in CHL and SST that are associated with El Niño events. These conclusions are drawn cautiously considering the short length of the time-series (1998-2012), emphasising the need

  15. Modelling consumers' preferences for Novel Protein Foods and environmental quality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhu, X.; Ierland, van E.C.

    2005-01-01

    We develop a theoretical Applied General Equilibrium (AGE) model that explicitly includes the environmental input in production functions and the consumers' preferences for environmental quality in utility functions. We empirically apply the model to provide some insights into the effects of the

  16. EASETECH – A LCA model for assessment of environmental technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damgaard, Anders; Baumeister, Hubert; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard

    2014-01-01

    EASETECH is a new model for the environmental assessment of environmental technologies developed in collaboration between DTU Environment and DTU Compute. EASETECH is based on experience gained in the field of waste management modelling over the last decade and applies the same concepts to systems...

  17. Data Sources Available for Modeling Environmental Exposures in Older Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report, “Data Sources Available for Modeling Environmental Exposures in Older Adults,” focuses on information sources and data available for modeling environmental exposures in the older U.S. population, defined here to be people 60 years and older, with an emphasis on those...

  18. South Atlantic Ocean circulation: Simulation experiments with a quasi-geostrophic model and assimilation of TOPEX/POSEIDON and ERS 1 altimeter data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Florenchie, P.; Verron, J.

    1998-10-01

    Simulation experiments of South Atlantic Ocean circulations are conducted with a 1/6°, four-layered, quasi-geostrophic model. By means of a simple nudging data assimilation procedure along satellite tracks, TOPEX/POSEIDON and ERS 1 altimeter measurements are introduced into the model to control the simulation of the basin-scale circulation for the period from October 1992 to September 1994. The model circulation appears to be strongly influenced by the introduction of altimeter data, offering a consistent picture of South Atlantic Ocean circulations. Comparisons with observations show that the assimilating model successfully simulates the kinematic behavior of a large number of surface circulation components. The assimilation procedure enables us to produce schematic diagrams of South Atlantic circulation in which patterns ranging from basin-scale currents to mesoscale eddies are portrayed in a realistic way, with respect to their complexity. The major features of the South Atlantic circulation are described and analyzed, with special emphasis on the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence region, the Subtropical Gyre with the formation of frontal structures, and the Agulhas Retroflection. The Agulhas eddy-shedding process has been studied extensively. Fourteen eddies appear to be shed during the 2-year experiment. Because of their strong surface topographic signature, Agulhas eddies have been tracked continuously during the assimilation experiment as they cross the South Atlantic basin westward. Other effects of the assimilation procedure are shown, such as the intensification of the Subtropical Gyre, the appearance of a strong seasonal cycle in the Brazil Current transport, and the increase of the mean Brazil Current transport. This last result, combined with the westward oriention of the Agulhas eddies' trajectories, leads to a southward transport of mean eddy kinetic energy across 30°S.

  19. Challenges in integrative approaches to modelling the marine ecosystems of the North Atlantic: Physics to fish and coasts to ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, Jason; Icarus Allen, J.; Anderson, Thomas R.; Brewin, Robert; Butenschön, Momme; Harle, James; Huse, Geir; Lehodey, Patrick; Lindemann, Christian; Memery, Laurent; Salihoglu, Baris; Senina, Inna; Yool, Andrew

    2014-12-01

    It has long been recognised that there are strong interactions and feedbacks between climate, upper ocean biogeochemistry and marine food webs, and also that food web structure and phytoplankton community distribution are important determinants of variability in carbon production and export from the euphotic zone. Numerical models provide a vital tool to explore these interactions, given their capability to investigate multiple connected components of the system and the sensitivity to multiple drivers, including potential future conditions. A major driver for ecosystem model development is the demand for quantitative tools to support ecosystem-based management initiatives. The purpose of this paper is to review approaches to the modelling of marine ecosystems with a focus on the North Atlantic Ocean and its adjacent shelf seas, and to highlight the challenges they face and suggest ways forward. We consider the state of the art in simulating oceans and shelf sea physics, planktonic and higher trophic level ecosystems, and look towards building an integrative approach with these existing tools. We note how the different approaches have evolved historically and that many of the previous obstacles to harmonisation may no longer be present. We illustrate this with examples from the on-going and planned modelling effort in the Integrative Modelling Work Package of the EURO-BASIN programme.

  20. Developing an event-tree probabilistic tsunami inundation model for NE Atlantic coasts: Application to case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omira, Rachid; Baptista, Maria Ana; Matias, Luis

    2015-04-01

    This study constitutes the first assessment of probabilistic tsunami inundation in the NE Atlantic region, using an event-tree approach. It aims to develop a probabilistic tsunami inundation approach for the NE Atlantic coast with an application to two test sites of ASTARTE project, Tangier-Morocco and Sines-Portugal. Only tsunamis of tectonic origin are considered here, taking into account near-, regional- and far-filed sources. The multidisciplinary approach, proposed here, consists of an event-tree method that gathers seismic hazard assessment, tsunami numerical modelling, and statistical methods. It presents also a treatment of uncertainties related to source location and tidal stage in order to derive the likelihood of tsunami flood occurrence and exceedance of a specific near-shore wave height during a given return period. We derive high-resolution probabilistic maximum wave heights and flood distributions for both test-sites Tangier and Sines considering 100-, 500-, and 1000-year return periods. We find that the probability that a maximum wave height exceeds 1 m somewhere along the Sines coasts reaches about 55% for 100-year return period, and is up to 100% for 1000-year return period. Along Tangier coast, the probability of inundation occurrence (flow depth > 0m) is up to 45% for 100-year return period and reaches 96% in some near-shore costal location for 500-year return period. Acknowledgements: This work is funded by project ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe. Grant 603839, 7th FP (ENV.2013.6.4-3 ENV.2013.6.4-3).

  1. The impact of resolution on the adjustment and decadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a coupled climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hodson, Daniel L.R.; Sutton, Rowan T. [University of Reading, NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, Earley Gate, PO Box 243, Reading (United Kingdom)

    2012-12-15

    Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) exert an important influence on climate, particularly on decadal time scales. Simulation of the MOC in coupled climate models is compromised, to a degree that is unknown, by their lack of fidelity in resolving some of the key processes involved. There is an overarching need to increase the resolution and fidelity of climate models, but also to assess how increases in resolution influence the simulation of key phenomena such as the MOC. In this study we investigate the impact of significantly increasing the (ocean and atmosphere) resolution of a coupled climate model on the simulation of MOC variability by comparing high and low resolution versions of the same model. In both versions, decadal variability of the MOC is closely linked to density anomalies that propagate from the Labrador Sea southward along the deep western boundary. We demonstrate that the MOC adjustment proceeds more rapidly in the higher resolution model due the increased speed of western boundary waves. However, the response of the Atlantic sea surface temperatures to MOC variations is relatively robust - in pattern if not in magnitude - across the two resolutions. The MOC also excites a coupled ocean-atmosphere response in the tropical Atlantic in both model versions. In the higher resolution model, but not the lower resolution model, there is evidence of a significant response in the extratropical atmosphere over the North Atlantic 6 years after a maximum in the MOC. In both models there is evidence of a weak negative feedback on deep density anomalies in the Labrador Sea, and hence on the MOC (with a time scale of approximately ten years). Our results highlight the need for further work to understand the decadal variability of the MOC and its simulation in climate models. (orig.)

  2. Before-after environmental impact assessment of an artificial channel opening on a south-western Atlantic choked lagoon system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prestrelo, L; Monteiro-Neto, C

    2016-07-01

    This study aimed to evaluate the human induced impact of a channel opening in a choked lagoon and attempted to establish the cause-effect links for the observed changes. The same lagoon system was sampled before and after the channel opening event, and the differences in fish and crustacean assemblages and environmental variables between these periods analysed. The opening of the artificial channel resulted in salinity increases, leading to a shift in species composition, favouring marine species and reducing abundance and diversity of previously dominant freshwater species. Furthermore, saltwater entrance into the choked lagoon caused an unexpected decrease in species richness and biomass, plus deterioration of ecosystem processes, reducing fishing capacity. The effects of salinity on the ecosystem vary depending on the ecosystem's composition and capacity to overcome salinity changes, thus specific monitoring projects are important strategies for developing coastal lagoon conservation management. © 2016 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  3. Projected changes to South Atlantic boundary currents and confluence region in the CMIP5 models: the role of wind and deep ocean changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pontes, G. M.; Gupta, A. Sen; Taschetto, A. S.

    2016-09-01

    The South Atlantic (SA) circulation plays an important role in the oceanic teleconnections from the Indian, Pacific and Southern oceans to the North Atlantic, with inter-hemispheric exchanges of heat and salt. Here, we show that the large-scale features of the SA circulation are projected to change significantly under ‘business as usual’ greenhouse gas increases. Based on 19 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 there is a projected weakening in the upper ocean interior transport (stress curl over this region. The reduction in ocean interior circulation is largely compensated by a decrease in the net deep southward ocean transport (>1000 m), mainly related to a decrease in the North Atlantic deep water transport. Between 30° and 40°S, there is a consistent projected intensification in the Brazil current strength of about 40% (30%-58% interquartile range) primarily compensated by an intensification of the upper interior circulation across the Indo-Atlantic basin. The Brazil-Malvinas confluence is projected to shift southwards, driven by a weakening of the Malvinas current. Such a change could have important implications for the distribution of marine species in the southwestern SA in the future.

  4. A mathematical model for environmental risk assessment in manufacturing industry

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    何莉萍; 徐盛明; 陈大川; 党创寅

    2002-01-01

    Environmental conscious manufacturing has become an important issue in industry because of market pressure and environmental regulations. An environmental risk assessment model was developed based on the network analytic method and fuzzy set theory. The "interval analysis method" was applied to deal with the on-site monitoring data as basic information for assessment. In addition, the fuzzy set theory was employed to allow uncertain, interactive and dynamic information to be effectively incorporated into the environmental risk assessment. This model is a simple, practical and effective tool for evaluating the environmental risk of manufacturing industry and for analyzing the relative impacts of emission wastes, which are hazardous to both human and ecosystem health. Furthermore, the model is considered useful for design engineers and decision-maker to design and select processes when the costs, environmental impacts and performances of a product are taken into consideration.

  5. Environmental Parametric Cost Model in Oil and Gas EPC Contracts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madjid Abbaspour

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aims at identifying the parameters that govern the environmental costs in oil and gas projects. An initial conceptual model was proposed. Next, the costs of environmental management work packages were estimated, separately and were applied in project control tools (WBS/CBS. Then, an environmental parametric cost model was designed to determine the environmental costs and relevant weighting factors. The suggested model can be considered as an innovative approach to designate the environmental indicators in oil and gas projects. The validity of variables was investigated based on Delphi method. The results indicated that the project environmental management’s weighting factor is 0.87% of total project’s weighting factor.

  6. A Knowledge-Based Representation Scheme for Environmental Science Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Richard M.; Dungan, Jennifer L.; Lum, Henry, Jr. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    One of the primary methods available for studying environmental phenomena is the construction and analysis of computational models. We have been studying how artificial intelligence techniques can be applied to assist in the development and use of environmental science models within the context of NASA-sponsored activities. We have identified several high-utility areas as potential targets for research and development: model development; data visualization, analysis, and interpretation; model publishing and reuse, training and education; and framing, posing, and answering questions. Central to progress on any of the above areas is a representation for environmental models that contains a great deal more information than is present in a traditional software implementation. In particular, a traditional software implementation is devoid of any semantic information that connects the code with the environmental context that forms the background for the modeling activity. Before we can build AI systems to assist in model development and usage, we must develop a representation for environmental models that adequately describes a model's semantics and explicitly represents the relationship between the code and the modeling task at hand. We have developed one such representation in conjunction with our work on the SIGMA (Scientists' Intelligent Graphical Modeling Assistant) environment. The key feature of the representation is that it provides a semantic grounding for the symbols in a set of modeling equations by linking those symbols to an explicit representation of the underlying environmental scenario.

  7. MODEL OF IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT SYSTEM BY MULTI - SOFTWARE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelena Jovanovic

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper is based on doctoral dissertation which is oriented on improving environmental management system using multi - software. In this doctoral dissertation will be used key results of master thesis which is oriented on quantification environmental aspects and impacts by artificial neural network in organizations. This paper recommend improving environmental management system in organization using Balanced scorecard model and MCDM method - AHP (Analytic hierarchy process based on group decision. BSC would be spread with elements of Environmental management system and used in area of strategic management system in organization and AHP would be used in area of checking results getting by quantification environmental aspects and impacts.

  8. Nematocarcinus Milne Edwards, 1881 (Crustacea, Decapoda) from Southwestern Atlantic, including the Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardoso, Irene A; Burukovsky, Rudolf N

    2014-11-26

    The deep sea shrimp genus Nematocarcinus Milne Edwards, 1881 includes 47 species, ten of them have been recorded from the Atlantic Ocean. Herein, material sampled during three scientific projects (REVIZEE Central Fishery project; Campos Basin Deep Sea Environmental Project; Evaluation of Environmental Heterogeneity in the Campos Basin) made in the Southwestern Atlantic, off Brazil, is examined. In addition, material sampled from the South Mid Atlantic Ridge (MAR-ECO Project) was also examined. Four species are recorded for the first time to the southwestern Atlantic Ocean including Mid Atlantic Ridge area: Nematocarcinus faxoni Burukovsky, 2001; N. gracilipes Filhol, 1884; N. rotundus Crosnier & Forest, 1973 and N. tenuipes Spence-Bate, 1888.

  9. A general model of distant hybridization reveals the conditions for extinction in Atlantic salmon and brown trout.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quilodrán, Claudio S; Currat, Mathias; Montoya-Burgos, Juan I

    2014-01-01

    Interspecific hybridization is common in nature but can be increased in frequency or even originated by human actions, such as species introduction or habitat modification, which may threaten species persistence. When hybridization occurs between distantly related species, referred to as "distant hybridization," the resulting hybrids are generally infertile or fertile but do not undergo chromosomal recombination during gametogenesis. Here, we present a model describing this frequent but poorly studied interspecific hybridization to assess its consequences on parental species and to anticipate the conditions under which they can reach extinction. Our general model fully incorporates three important processes: density-dependent competition, dominance/recessivity inheritance of traits and assortative mating. We demonstrate its use and flexibility by assessing population extinction risk between Atlantic salmon and brown trout in Norway, whose interbreeding has recently increased due to farmed fish releases into the wild. We identified the set of conditions under which hybridization may threaten salmonid species. Thanks to the flexibility of our model, we evaluated the effect of an additional risk factor, a parasitic disease, and showed that the cumulative effects dramatically increase the extinction risk. The consequences of distant hybridization are not genetically, but demographically mediated. Our general model is useful to better comprehend the evolution of such hybrid systems and we demonstrated its importance in the field of conservation biology to set up management recommendations when this increasingly frequent type of hybridization is in action.

  10. A General Model of Distant Hybridization Reveals the Conditions for Extinction in Atlantic Salmon and Brown Trout

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quilodrán, Claudio S.; Currat, Mathias; Montoya-Burgos, Juan I.

    2014-01-01

    Interspecific hybridization is common in nature but can be increased in frequency or even originated by human actions, such as species introduction or habitat modification, which may threaten species persistence. When hybridization occurs between distantly related species, referred to as “distant hybridization,” the resulting hybrids are generally infertile or fertile but do not undergo chromosomal recombination during gametogenesis. Here, we present a model describing this frequent but poorly studied interspecific hybridization to assess its consequences on parental species and to anticipate the conditions under which they can reach extinction. Our general model fully incorporates three important processes: density-dependent competition, dominance/recessivity inheritance of traits and assortative mating. We demonstrate its use and flexibility by assessing population extinction risk between Atlantic salmon and brown trout in Norway, whose interbreeding has recently increased due to farmed fish releases into the wild. We identified the set of conditions under which hybridization may threaten salmonid species. Thanks to the flexibility of our model, we evaluated the effect of an additional risk factor, a parasitic disease, and showed that the cumulative effects dramatically increase the extinction risk. The consequences of distant hybridization are not genetically, but demographically mediated. Our general model is useful to better comprehend the evolution of such hybrid systems and we demonstrated its importance in the field of conservation biology to set up management recommendations when this increasingly frequent type of hybridization is in action. PMID:25003336

  11. A general model of distant hybridization reveals the conditions for extinction in Atlantic salmon and brown trout.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio S Quilodrán

    Full Text Available Interspecific hybridization is common in nature but can be increased in frequency or even originated by human actions, such as species introduction or habitat modification, which may threaten species persistence. When hybridization occurs between distantly related species, referred to as "distant hybridization," the resulting hybrids are generally infertile or fertile but do not undergo chromosomal recombination during gametogenesis. Here, we present a model describing this frequent but poorly studied interspecific hybridization to assess its consequences on parental species and to anticipate the conditions under which they can reach extinction. Our general model fully incorporates three important processes: density-dependent competition, dominance/recessivity inheritance of traits and assortative mating. We demonstrate its use and flexibility by assessing population extinction risk between Atlantic salmon and brown trout in Norway, whose interbreeding has recently increased due to farmed fish releases into the wild. We identified the set of conditions under which hybridization may threaten salmonid species. Thanks to the flexibility of our model, we evaluated the effect of an additional risk factor, a parasitic disease, and showed that the cumulative effects dramatically increase the extinction risk. The consequences of distant hybridization are not genetically, but demographically mediated. Our general model is useful to better comprehend the evolution of such hybrid systems and we demonstrated its importance in the field of conservation biology to set up management recommendations when this increasingly frequent type of hybridization is in action.

  12. Stochastic modelling of direct costs of pancreas disease (PD) in Norwegian farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aunsmo, Arnfinn; Valle, Paul Steinar; Sandberg, Marianne; Midtlyng, Paul Johan; Bruheim, Torkjel

    2010-02-01

    An economic model for estimating the direct costs of disease in industrial aquaculture was developed to include the following areas: biological losses, extraordinary costs, costs of treatment, costs of prevention and insurance pay-out. Direct costs of a pancreas disease (PD) outbreak in Norwegian farmed Atlantic salmon were estimated in the model, using probability distributions for the biological losses and expenditures associated with the disease. The biological effects of PD on mortality, growth, feed conversion and carcass quality and their correlations, together with costs of prevention were established using elicited data from an expert panel, and combined with basal losses in a control model. Extraordinary costs and costs associated with treatment were collected through a questionnaire sent to staff managing disease outbreaks. Norwegian national statistics for 2007 were used for prices and production costs in the model. Direct costs associated with a PD-outbreak in a site stocked with 500,000 smolts (vs. a similar site without the disease) were estimated to NOK (Norwegian kroner) 14.4 million (5% and 95% percentile: 10.5 and 17.8) (NOK=euro0.12 or $0.17 for 2007). Production was reduced to 70% (5% and 95% percentile: 57% and 81%) saleable biomass, and at an increased production cost of NOK 6.0 per kg (5% and 95% percentile: 3.5 and 8.7). Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Parameterization of synoptic weather systems in the South Atlantic Bight for modeling applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xiaodong; Voulgaris, George; Kumar, Nirnimesh

    2017-10-01

    An event based, long-term, climatological analysis is presented that allows the creation of coastal ocean atmospheric forcing on the coastal ocean that preserves both frequency of occurrence and event time history. An algorithm is developed that identifies individual storm event (cold fronts, warm fronts, and tropical storms) from meteorological records. The algorithm has been applied to a location along the South Atlantic Bight, off South Carolina, an area prone to cyclogenesis occurrence and passages of atmospheric fronts. Comparison against daily weather maps confirms that the algorithm is efficient in identifying cold fronts and warm fronts, while the identification of tropical storms is less successful. The average state of the storm events and their variability are represented by the temporal evolution of atmospheric pressure, air temperature, wind velocity, and wave directional spectral energy. The use of uncorrected algorithm-detected events provides climatologies that show a little deviation from those derived using corrected events. The effectiveness of this analysis method is further verified by numerically simulating the wave conditions driven by the characteristic wind forcing and comparing the results with the wave climatology that corresponds to each storm type. A high level of consistency found in the comparison indicates that this analysis method can be used for accurately characterizing event-based oceanic processes and long-term storm-induced morphodynamic processes on wind-dominated coasts.

  14. A review of mathematical models in economic environmental problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nahorski, Z.; Ravn, H.F.

    2000-01-01

    The paper presents a review of mathematical models used,in economic analysis of environmental problems. This area of research combines macroeconomic models of growth, as dependent on capital, labour, resources, etc., with environmental models describing such phenomena like natural resources...... exhaustion or pollution accumulation and degradation. In simpler cases the models can be treated analytically and the utility function can be optimized using, e.g., such tools as the maximum principle. In more complicated cases calculation of the optimal environmental policies requires a computer solution....

  15. Proposing an Environmental Excellence Self-Assessment Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meulengracht Jensen, Peter; Johansen, John; Wæhrens, Brian Vejrum

    2013-01-01

    that the EEA model can be used in global organizations to differentiate environmental efforts depending on the maturity stage of the individual sites. Furthermore, the model can be used to support the decision-making process regarding when organizations should embark on more complex environmental efforts......This paper presents an Environmental Excellence Self-Assessment (EEA) model based on the structure of the European Foundation of Quality Management Business Excellence Framework. Four theoretical scenarios for deploying the model are presented as well as managerial implications, suggesting...

  16. Distribution of calcifying and silicifying phytoplankton in relation to environmental and biogeochemical parameters during the late stages of the 2005 North East Atlantic Spring Bloom

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Leblanc

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available The late stage of the North East Atlantic (NEA spring bloom was investigated during June 2005 along a transect section from 45 to 66° N between 15 and 20° W in order to characterize the contribution of siliceous and calcareous phytoplankton groups and describe their distribution in relation to environmental factors. We measured several biogeochemical parameters such as nutrients, surface trace metals, algal pigments, biogenic silica (BSi, particulate inorganic carbon (PIC or calcium carbonate, particulate organic carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus (POC, PON and POP, respectively, as well as transparent exopolymer particles (TEP. Results were compared with other studies undertaken in this area since the JGOFS NABE program. Characteristics of the spring bloom generally agreed well with the accepted scenario for the development of the autotrophic community. The NEA seasonal diatom bloom was in the late stages when we sampled the area and diatoms were constrained to the northern part of our transect, over the Icelandic Basin (IB and Icelandic Shelf (IS. Coccolithophores dominated the phytoplankton community, with a large distribution over the Rockall-Hatton Plateau (RHP and IB. The Porcupine Abyssal Plain (PAP region at the southern end of our transect was the region with the lowest biomass, as demonstrated by very low Chla concentrations and a community dominated by picophytoplankton. Early depletion of dissolved silicic acid (DSi and increased stratification of the surface layer most likely triggered the end of the diatom bloom, leading to coccolithophore dominance. The chronic Si deficiency observed in the NEA could be linked to moderate Fe limitation, which increases the efficiency of the Si pump. TEP closely mirrored the distribution of both biogenic silica at depth and prymnesiophytes in the surface layer suggesting the sedimentation of the diatom bloom in the form of aggregates, but the relative contribution of diatoms and

  17. Environmental implications of release of oil-based drilling fluids and oily cuttings into waters of the Canadian northwest Atlantic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barchard, W.W.; Doe, K.G.; Mahon, S.D.; Moores, R.B.; Osborne, J.M.; Parker, W.R.

    1986-01-01

    In 1982, the Environmental Protection Service became aware that companies conducting petroleum exploration in the waters of eastern Canada would request permission to use and discharge oil-based drilling fluids and/or drill cuttings contaminated with oil-based drilling fluids. It was determined from an evaluation of North Sea data that aspects of the toxicity of oil-based drilling fluids should be evaluated using techniques applicable to Canadian marine conditions. Although it is unlikely that permission will be granted to dispose of whole oil-based muds into the ocean, whole mud formulations were tested as a close approximation to the mixture which would adhere to discharged drilling cuttings. Test organisms were exposed to whole muds as an approximation of the worst possible exposure regime. Static bioassays (96-hour) were conducted using threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus). In general, high pH and the inclusion of certain emulsifiers seemed to contribute greatly to the lethality of the whole muds. Diesel oil-based muds were more acutely toxic than those formulated with alternate base oils which were virtually non-acutely toxic. Acute, sublethal and long-term studies were also conducted only on drill cuttings contaminated with alternate base oil muds. These more closely reflect proposed discharge strategies. Although 96-hour exposures resulted in no mortality, longer-term exposures (four to thirty-two days) resulted in significant behavioural changes and/or mortality to Macoma balthica, Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis, larval Homarus americanus and Nephthys caeca. The results suggest that use of alternate oil-based drilling fluids will have an effect on the marine environment intermediate between water-based muds and diesel oil-based muds. 73 refs., 6 figs., 18 tabs.

  18. Considerations on the modelling of environmental radiocarbon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, E.M.; McCartney, M.

    1991-01-01

    Modelling radionuclide transfer within the natural environment involves three general steps: model formulation, its fitting using appropriate experimental data and model validation. The last process typically involves a sensitivity analysis and is used to modify model formulation and to direct future experimental effort. A wide variety of models exists appropriate to a number of different applications. Recently, attention has been directed to the development of principles for establishing local, regional and global upper bounds to doses. Here important considerations in model choice are the spatial detail required within the model, the links between models of differing resolution and the availability of suitable experimental data. We illustrate the model-building stages and discuss the above considerations in transfer modelling using radiocarbon which is produced and released as part of the nuclear fuel cycle. Its long half life of 5730 years, its mobility in the environment and its incorporation into man via the food chain make it of some considerable radiological significance. We consider local modelling of 14 C transfer using a Gaussian plume model, while its global dispersal is modelled using a large globally-averaged compartmental model. The global analysis is used to make short term predictions of 14 C specific activities to 2050 and longer-term predictions over a period of 10,000 years. We discuss the validation of these models and attempt to quantify the sources and magnitudes of the uncertainties in the model predictions. (26 refs., 2 figs.)

  19. The use of models to assess environmental impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gustafson, P.F.

    1978-01-01

    Environmental impacts will include the effects on man as well as on other major segments of the natural or indigenous ecosystems. In their present state of development, the models used for environmental impact analysis give at least a semiquantitative estimate of the magnitude of such impacts. The methods used in the development of models are given, and their strengths and weaknesses are described. The relationship between predictive, before-the-fact models, and monitoring programs conducted during facility operation are also discussed

  20. The application of DEA model in enterprise environmental performance auditing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, F.; Zhu, L. Y.; Zhang, J. D.; Liu, C. Y.; Qu, Z. G.; Xiao, M. S.

    2017-01-01

    As a part of society, enterprises have an inescapable responsibility for environmental protection and governance. This article discusses the feasibility and necessity of enterprises environmental performance auditing and uses DEA model calculate the environmental performance of Haier for example. The most of reference data are selected and sorted from Haier’s environmental reportspublished in 2008, 2009, 2011 and 2015, and some of the data from some published articles and fieldwork. All the calculation results are calculated by DEAP software andhave a high credibility. The analysis results of this article can give corporate managements an idea about using environmental performance auditing to adjust their corporate environmental investments capital quota and change their company’s environmental strategies.

  1. Environmental problems and economic development in an endogenous fertility model

    OpenAIRE

    Frank Joest; Martin Quaas; Johannes Schiller

    2006-01-01

    Population growth is often viewed as a most oppressive global problem with respect to environmental deterioration, but the relationships between population development, economic dynamics and environmental pollution are complex due to various feedback mechanisms. We analyze society’s economic decisions on birth rates, investment into human and physical capital, and polluting emissions within an optimal control model of the coupled demographic-economic-environmental system. We show that a long-...

  2. Environmental Management Model for Road Maintenance Operation Involving Community Participation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Triyono, A. R. H.; Setyawan, A.; Sobriyah; Setiono, P.

    2017-07-01

    Public expectations of Central Java, which is very high on demand fulfillment, especially road infrastructure as outlined in the number of complaints and community expectations tweeter, Short Mail Massage (SMS), e-mail and public reports from various media, Highways Department of Central Java province requires development model of environmental management in the implementation of a routine way by involving the community in order to fulfill the conditions of a representative, may serve road users safely and comfortably. This study used survey method with SEM analysis and SWOT with Latent Independent Variable (X), namely; Public Participation in the regulation, development, construction and supervision of road (PSM); Public behavior in the utilization of the road (PMJ) Provincial Road Service (PJP); Safety in the Provincial Road (KJP); Integrated Management System (SMT) and latent dependent variable (Y) routine maintenance of the provincial road that is integrated with the environmental management system and involve the participation of the community (MML). The result showed the implementation of routine maintenance of road conditions in Central Java province has yet to implement an environmental management by involving the community; Therefore developed environmental management model with the results of H1: Community Participation (PSM) has positive influence on the Model of Environmental Management (MML); H2: Behavior Society in Jalan Utilization (PMJ) positive effect on Model Environmental Management (MML); H3: Provincial Road Service (PJP) positive effect on Model Environmental Management (MML); H4: Safety in the Provincial Road (KJP) positive effect on Model Environmental Management (MML); H5: Integrated Management System (SMT) has positive influence on the Model of Environmental Management (MML). From the analysis obtained formulation model describing the relationship / influence of the independent variables PSM, PMJ, PJP, KJP, and SMT on the dependent variable

  3. 76 FR 13583 - Atlantic Highly Migratory Species; Atlantic Bluefin Tuna Quotas and Atlantic Tuna Fisheries...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-14

    ... address concerns raised in a recent decision by a NOAA Administrative Law Judge (see Atlantic Tunas Transfer at Sea section for case reference). NMFS has prepared a draft Environmental Assessment (EA... subtraction of these allocations directly from the TAC, the recommendation allocates the remainder to the UK...

  4. PEEX Modelling Platform for Seamless Environmental Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baklanov, Alexander; Mahura, Alexander; Arnold, Stephen; Makkonen, Risto; Petäjä, Tuukka; Kerminen, Veli-Matti; Lappalainen, Hanna K.; Ezau, Igor; Nuterman, Roman; Zhang, Wen; Penenko, Alexey; Gordov, Evgeny; Zilitinkevich, Sergej; Kulmala, Markku

    2017-04-01

    The Pan-Eurasian EXperiment (PEEX) is a multidisciplinary, multi-scale research programme stared in 2012 and aimed at resolving the major uncertainties in Earth System Science and global sustainability issues concerning the Arctic and boreal Northern Eurasian regions and in China. Such challenges include climate change, air quality, biodiversity loss, chemicalization, food supply, and the use of natural resources by mining, industry, energy production and transport. The research infrastructure introduces the current state of the art modeling platform and observation systems in the Pan-Eurasian region and presents the future baselines for the coherent and coordinated research infrastructures in the PEEX domain. The PEEX modeling Platform is characterized by a complex seamless integrated Earth System Modeling (ESM) approach, in combination with specific models of different processes and elements of the system, acting on different temporal and spatial scales. The ensemble approach is taken to the integration of modeling results from different models, participants and countries. PEEX utilizes the full potential of a hierarchy of models: scenario analysis, inverse modeling, and modeling based on measurement needs and processes. The models are validated and constrained by available in-situ and remote sensing data of various spatial and temporal scales using data assimilation and top-down modeling. The analyses of the anticipated large volumes of data produced by available models and sensors will be supported by a dedicated virtual research environment developed for these purposes.

  5. 1987 Oak Ridge model conference: Proceedings: Volume 2, Environmental protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-01-01

    See the abstract for Volume I for general information on the conference. Topics discussed in Volume II include data management techiques for environmental protection efforts, the use of models in environmental auditing, in emergency plans, chemical accident emergency response, risk assessment, monitoring of waste sites, air and water monitoring of waste sites, and in training programs

  6. 1987 Oak Ridge model conference: Proceedings: Volume 2, Environmental protection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1987-01-01

    See the abstract for Volume I for general information on the conference. Topics discussed in Volume II include data management techiques for environmental protection efforts, the use of models in environmental auditing, in emergency plans, chemical accident emergency response, risk assessment, monitoring of waste sites, air and water monitoring of waste sites, and in training programs. (TEM)

  7. LOUISIANA ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING SYSTEM FOR HYPOXIA RELATED ISSUES

    Science.gov (United States)

    An environmental assessment tool to evaluate the impacts of nonpoint source (NPS) pollutants discharged from Mississippi River basins into the Gulf of Mexico and to assess their effects on receiving water quality will be described. This system (Louisiana Environmental Modeling S...

  8. Modeling Environmental Literacy of Malaysian Pre-University Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shamuganathan, Sheila; Karpudewan, Mageswary

    2015-01-01

    In this study attempt was made to model the environmental literacy of Malaysian pre-university students enrolled in a matriculation college. Students enrolled in the matriculation colleges in Malaysia are the top notch students in the country. Environmental literacy of this group is perceived important because in the future these students will be…

  9. Frontier models for evaluating environmental efficiency: an overview

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Wall, A.

    2014-01-01

    Our aim in this paper is to provide a succinct overview of frontier-based models used to evaluate environmental efficiency, with a special emphasis on agricultural activity. We begin by providing a brief, up-to-date review of the main approaches used to measure environmental efficiency, with

  10. Modeling Biogeochemical-Physical Interactions and Carbon Flux in the Sargasso Sea (Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study site)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Signorini, Sergio R.; McClain, Charles R.; Christian, James R.

    2001-01-01

    An ecosystem-carbon cycle model is used to analyze the biogeochemical-physical interactions and carbon fluxes in the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site for the period of 1992-1998. The model results compare well with observations (most variables are within 8% of observed values). The sea-air flux ranges from -0.32 to -0.50 mol C/sq m/yr, depending upon the gas transfer algorithm used. This estimate is within the range (-0.22 to -0.83 mol C/sq m/yr) of previously reported values which indicates that the BATS region is a weak sink of atmospheric CO2. The overall carbon balance consists of atmospheric CO2 uptake of 0.3 Mol C/sq m/yr, upward dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) bottom flux of 1.1 Mol C/sq m/yr, and carbon export of 1.4 mol C/sq m/yr via sedimentation. Upper ocean DIC levels increased between 1992 and 1996 at a rate of approximately 1.2 (micro)mol/kg/yr, consistent with observations. However, this trend was reversed during 1997-1998 to -2.7 (micro)mol/kg/yr in response to hydrographic changes imposed by the El Nino-La Nina transition, which were manifested in the Sargasso Sea by the warmest SST and lowest surface salinity of the period (1992-1998).

  11. Aerosol-Radiation-Cloud Interactions in the South-East Atlantic: Future Suborbital Activities to Address Knowledge Gaps in Satellite and Model Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redemann, Jens; Wood, R.; Zuidema, P.; Haywood, J.; Piketh, S.; Formenti, P.; L'Ecuyer, T.; Kacenelenbogen, M.; Segal-Rosenheimer, M.; Shinozuka, Y.; hide

    2016-01-01

    Southern Africa produces almost a third of the Earth's biomass burning (BB) aerosol particles. Particles lofted into the mid-troposphere are transported westward over the South-East (SE) Atlantic, home to one of the three permanent subtropical stratocumulus (Sc) cloud decks in the world. The SE Atlantic stratocumulus deck interacts with the dense layers of BB aerosols that initially overlay the cloud deck, but later subside and may mix into the clouds. These interactions include adjustments to aerosol-induced solar heating and microphysical effects, and their global representation in climate models remains one of the largest uncertainties in estimates of future climate. Hence, new observations over the SE Atlantic have significant implications for global climate change scenarios. Our understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions in the SE Atlantic is hindered both by the lack of knowledge on aerosol and cloud properties, as well as the lack of knowledge about detailed physical processes involved. Most notably, we are missing knowledge on the absorptive and cloud nucleating properties of aerosols, including their vertical distribution relative to clouds, on the locations and degree of aerosol mixing into clouds, on the processes that govern cloud property adjustments, and on the importance of aerosol effects on clouds relative to co-varying synoptic scale meteorology. We discuss the current knowledge of aerosol and cloud property distributions based on satellite observations and sparse suborbital sampling. Recent efforts to make full use of A-Train aerosol sensor synergies will be highlighted. We describe planned field campaigns in the region to address the existing knowledge gaps. Specifically, we describe the scientific objectives and implementation of the five synergistic, international research activities aimed at providing some of the key aerosol and cloud properties and a process-level understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions over the SE Atlantic: NASA

  12. A model of Fe speciation and biogeochemistry at the Tropical Eastern North Atlantic Time-Series Observatory site

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Ye

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available A one-dimensional model of Fe speciation and biogeochemistry, coupled with the General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM and a NPZD-type ecosystem model, is applied for the Tropical Eastern North Atlantic Time-Series Observatory (TENATSO site. Among diverse processes affecting Fe speciation, this study is focusing on investigating the role of dust particles in removing dissolved iron (DFe by a more complex description of particle aggregation and sinking, and explaining the abundance of organic Fe-binding ligands by modelling their origin and fate.

    The vertical distribution of different particle classes in the model shows high sensitivity to changing aggregation rates. Using the aggregation rates from the sensitivity study in this work, modelled particle fluxes are close to observations, with dust particles dominating near the surface and aggregates deeper in the water column. POC export at 1000 m is a little higher than regional sediment trap measurements, suggesting further improvement of modelling particle aggregation, sinking or remineralisation.

    Modelled strong ligands have a high abundance near the surface and decline rapidly below the deep chlorophyll maximum, showing qualitative similarity to observations. Without production of strong ligands, phytoplankton concentration falls to 0 within the first 2 years in the model integration, caused by strong Fe-limitation. A nudging of total weak ligands towards a constant value is required for reproducing the observed nutrient-like profiles, assuming a decay time of 7 years for weak ligands. This indicates that weak ligands have a longer decay time and therefore cannot be modelled adequately in a one-dimensional model.

    The modelled DFe profile is strongly influenced by particle concentration and vertical distribution, because the most important removal of DFe in deeper waters is colloid formation and aggregation. Redissolution of particulate iron is required to reproduce an

  13. Modeling the potential spread of the recently identified non-native panther grouper (Chromileptes altivelis in the Atlantic using a cellular automaton approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew W Johnston

    Full Text Available The Indo-pacific panther grouper (Chromileptes altiveli is a predatory fish species and popular imported aquarium fish in the United States which has been recently documented residing in western Atlantic waters. To date, the most successful marine invasive species in the Atlantic is the lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles, which, as for the panther grouper, is assumed to have been introduced to the wild through aquarium releases. However, unlike lionfish, the panther grouper is not yet thought to have an established breeding population in the Atlantic. Using a proven modeling technique developed to track the lionfish invasion, presented is the first known estimation of the potential spread of panther grouper in the Atlantic. The employed cellular automaton-based computer model examines the life history of the subject species including fecundity, mortality, and reproductive potential and combines this with habitat preferences and physical oceanic parameters to forecast the distribution and periodicity of spread of this potential new invasive species. Simulations were examined for origination points within one degree of capture locations of panther grouper from the United States Geological Survey Nonindigenous Aquatic Species Database to eliminate introduction location bias, and two detailed case studies were scrutinized. The model indicates three primary locations where settlement is likely given the inputs and limits of the model; Jupiter Florida/Vero Beach, the Cape Hatteras Tropical Limit/Myrtle Beach South Carolina, and Florida Keys/Ten Thousand Islands locations. Of these locations, Jupiter Florida/Vero Beach has the highest settlement rate in the model and is indicated as the area in which the panther grouper is most likely to become established. This insight is valuable if attempts are to be made to halt this potential marine invasive species.

  14. Modeling the potential spread of the recently identified non-native panther grouper (Chromileptes altivelis) in the Atlantic using a cellular automaton approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Matthew W; Purkis, Sam J

    2013-01-01

    The Indo-pacific panther grouper (Chromileptes altiveli) is a predatory fish species and popular imported aquarium fish in the United States which has been recently documented residing in western Atlantic waters. To date, the most successful marine invasive species in the Atlantic is the lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles), which, as for the panther grouper, is assumed to have been introduced to the wild through aquarium releases. However, unlike lionfish, the panther grouper is not yet thought to have an established breeding population in the Atlantic. Using a proven modeling technique developed to track the lionfish invasion, presented is the first known estimation of the potential spread of panther grouper in the Atlantic. The employed cellular automaton-based computer model examines the life history of the subject species including fecundity, mortality, and reproductive potential and combines this with habitat preferences and physical oceanic parameters to forecast the distribution and periodicity of spread of this potential new invasive species. Simulations were examined for origination points within one degree of capture locations of panther grouper from the United States Geological Survey Nonindigenous Aquatic Species Database to eliminate introduction location bias, and two detailed case studies were scrutinized. The model indicates three primary locations where settlement is likely given the inputs and limits of the model; Jupiter Florida/Vero Beach, the Cape Hatteras Tropical Limit/Myrtle Beach South Carolina, and Florida Keys/Ten Thousand Islands locations. Of these locations, Jupiter Florida/Vero Beach has the highest settlement rate in the model and is indicated as the area in which the panther grouper is most likely to become established. This insight is valuable if attempts are to be made to halt this potential marine invasive species.

  15. Multiwalled Carbon Nanotube Deposition on Model Environmental Surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deposition of multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWNTs) on model environmental surfaces was investigated using a quartz crystal microbalance with dissipation monitoring (QCM-D). Deposition behaviors of MWNTs on positively and negatively charged surfaces were in good agreement with Der...

  16. Assaying environmental nickel toxicity using model nematodes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Rudel

    Full Text Available Although nickel exposure results in allergic reactions, respiratory conditions, and cancer in humans and rodents, the ramifications of excess nickel in the environment for animal and human health remain largely undescribed. Nickel and other cationic metals travel through waterways and bind to soils and sediments. To evaluate the potential toxic effects of nickel at environmental contaminant levels (8.9-7,600 µg Ni/g dry weight of sediment and 50-800 µg NiCl2/L of water, we conducted assays using two cosmopolitan nematodes, Caenorhabditis elegans and Pristionchus pacificus. We assayed the effects of both sediment-bound and aqueous nickel upon animal growth, developmental survival, lifespan, and fecundity. Uncontaminated sediments were collected from sites in the Midwestern United States and spiked with a range of nickel concentrations. We found that nickel-spiked sediment substantially impairs both survival from larval to adult stages and adult longevity in a concentration-dependent manner. Further, while aqueous nickel showed no adverse effects on either survivorship or longevity, we observed a significant decrease in fecundity, indicating that aqueous nickel could have a negative impact on nematode physiology. Intriguingly, C. elegans and P. pacificus exhibit similar, but not identical, responses to nickel exposure. Moreover, P. pacificus could be tested successfully in sediments inhospitable to C. elegans. Our results add to a growing body of literature documenting the impact of nickel on animal physiology, and suggest that environmental toxicological studies could gain an advantage by widening their repertoire of nematode species.

  17. Assaying environmental nickel toxicity using model nematodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudel, David; Douglas, Chandler; Huffnagle, Ian; Besser, John M.; Ingersoll, Christopher G.

    2013-01-01

    Although nickel exposure results in allergic reactions, respiratory conditions, and cancer in humans and rodents, the ramifications of excess nickel in the environment for animal and human health remain largely undescribed. Nickel and other cationic metals travel through waterways and bind to soils and sediments. To evaluate the potential toxic effects of nickel at environmental contaminant levels (8.9-7,600 µg Ni/g dry weight of sediment and 50-800 µg NiCl2/L of water), we conducted assays using two cosmopolitan nematodes, Caenorhabditis elegans and Pristionchus pacificus. We assayed the effects of both sediment-bound and aqueous nickel upon animal growth, developmental survival, lifespan, and fecundity. Uncontaminated sediments were collected from sites in the Midwestern United States and spiked with a range of nickel concentrations. We found that nickel-spiked sediment substantially impairs both survival from larval to adult stages and adult longevity in a concentration-dependent manner. Further, while aqueous nickel showed no adverse effects on either survivorship or longevity, we observed a significant decrease in fecundity, indicating that aqueous nickel could have a negative impact on nematode physiology. Intriguingly, C. elegansand P. pacificus exhibit similar, but not identical, responses to nickel exposure. Moreover, P. pacificus could be tested successfully in sediments inhospitable to C. elegans. Our results add to a growing body of literature documenting the impact of nickel on animal physiology, and suggest that environmental toxicological studies could gain an advantage by widening their repertoire of nematode species.

  18. ENVIRONMENTAL RESPONSIBILITY MODEL BASED ON ISO 14000 MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catalina SITNIKOV

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Worldwide corporations, as well as their stakeholders, are more conscious of the need for environmental management, SR behaviour, and sustainable growth and development. International Standards are becoming more significant for corporations to work towards common environmental management practices. ISO 14001 is the first and the broadest standard intended at a more responsible approach of corporations and the world’s most acknowledged framework for environmental management systems that assists corporations to better manage the effect of their activities on the environment. This article aims to study ISO 14001 implementation and its effects on the environmental responsibility. A model will be built, which covers the environmental management system, the components of organizational culture, being able to influence environmental standards implementation.

  19. Determination of Acoustic Effects on Marine Mammals and Sea Turtles for the Atlantic Fleet Training and Testing Environmental Impact Statement/Overseas Environmental Impact Statement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-23

    requirements, which are linked to real- world events. An unclassified version of the sources modeled within each source class category is provided...impulsive and non-impulsive sources, with the exception of the overpopulation factor, where the different methodologies for these two source types are... overpopulation factor is determined for the animals within both an inner box associated with the track boundary for the activity and an outer box associated

  20. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.W.

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base

  1. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, C W [ed.

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base. (ACR)

  2. Thrust-wrench interference tectonics in the Gulf of Cadiz (Africa-Iberia plate boundary in the North-East Atlantic): Insights from analog models

    OpenAIRE

    Duarte , João ,; Rosas , Filipe ,; Terrinha , Pedro; Gutscher , Marc-André ,; Malavielle , Jacques; Silva , Sonia; Matias , Luis

    2011-01-01

    International audience; In the Gulf of Cadiz key segment of the Africa-Iberia plate boundary (North-East Atlantic ocean), three main different modes of tectonic interference between a recently identified wrench system (SWIM) and the Gulf of Cadiz Accretionary Wedge (GCAW) were tested through analog sand-box modeling: a) An active accretionary wedge on top of a pre-existent inactive basement fault; b) An active strike-slip fault cutting a previously formed, inactive, accretionary wedge; and c)...

  3. STABILITY OF INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL AGREEMENTS IN LEADERSHIP MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jin ZHANG; Shouyang WANG; Lei ZU

    2008-01-01

    International Environmental Agreements (IEAs) are a form of cooperation ratified by countries which can improve the management of shared environmental resources. The authors analyze the stability of International Environmental Agreements in leadership model. In 2006, Diamantoudi & Sartzetakis found that a stable coalition consists of either 2, 3, or 4 members if the number of countries is greater than 4. Their model is reconsidered. It is shown that the size of stable IEAs decreases from 3 to 2 when the total number of countries involved increases. However, a situation that can guarantee 4 to be the size of stable IEAs could not be found.

  4. Mathematical model in economic environmental problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nahorski, Z. [Polish Academy of Sciences, Systems Research Inst. (Poland); Ravn, H.F. [Risoe National Lab. (Denmark)

    1996-12-31

    The report contains a review of basic models and mathematical tools used in economic regulation problems. It starts with presentation of basic models of capital accumulation, resource depletion, pollution accumulation, and population growth, as well as construction of utility functions. Then the one-state variable model is discussed in details. The basic mathematical methods used consist of application of the maximum principle and phase plane analysis of the differential equations obtained as the necessary conditions of optimality. A summary of basic results connected with these methods is given in appendices. (au) 13 ills.; 17 refs.

  5. Aluminium in an ocean general circulation model compared with the West Atlantic Geotraces cruises

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van Hulten, M

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available A model of aluminium has been developed and implemented in an Ocean General Circulation Model (NEMO-PISCES). In the model, aluminium enters the ocean by means of dust deposition. The internal oceanic processes are described by advection, mixing...

  6. Numerical Simulations of Microseisms in a NE Atlantic 3D Geological Model, using a Spectral-Element Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ying, Yingzi; Bean, Christopher J.

    2014-05-01

    Ocean-generated microseisms are faint Earth tremors associated with the interaction between ocean water waves and the solid Earth. The microseism noise recorded as low frequency ground vibrations by seismometers contains significant information about the Earth's interior and the sea states. In this work, we first aim to investigate the forward propagation of microseisms in a deep-ocean environment. We employ a 3D North-East Atlantic geological model and simulate wave propagation in a coupled fluid-solid domain, using a spectral-element method. The aim is to investigate the effects of the continental shelf on microseism wave propagation. A second goal of this work is to perform noise simulation to calculate synthetic ensemble averaged cross-correlations of microseism noise signals with time reversal method. The algorithm can relieve computational cost by avoiding time stacking and get cross-correlations between the designated master station and all the remaining slave stations, at one time. The origins of microseisms are non-uniform, so we also test the effect of simulated noise source distribution on the determined cross-correlations.

  7. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-01-01

    This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters

  8. Application of a predictive Bayesian model to environmental accounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anex, R P; Englehardt, J D

    2001-03-30

    Environmental accounting techniques are intended to capture important environmental costs and benefits that are often overlooked in standard accounting practices. Environmental accounting methods themselves often ignore or inadequately represent large but highly uncertain environmental costs and costs conditioned by specific prior events. Use of a predictive Bayesian model is demonstrated for the assessment of such highly uncertain environmental and contingent costs. The predictive Bayesian approach presented generates probability distributions for the quantity of interest (rather than parameters thereof). A spreadsheet implementation of a previously proposed predictive Bayesian model, extended to represent contingent costs, is described and used to evaluate whether a firm should undertake an accelerated phase-out of its PCB containing transformers. Variability and uncertainty (due to lack of information) in transformer accident frequency and severity are assessed simultaneously using a combination of historical accident data, engineering model-based cost estimates, and subjective judgement. Model results are compared using several different risk measures. Use of the model for incorporation of environmental risk management into a company's overall risk management strategy is discussed.

  9. Lumped parameter models for the interpretation of environmental tracer data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maloszewski, P.; Zuber, A.

    1996-01-01

    Principles of the lumped-parameter approach to the interpretation of environmental tracer data are given. The following models are considered: the piston flow model (PFM), exponential flow model (EM), linear model (LM), combined piston flow and exponential flow model (EPM), combined linear flow and piston flow model (LPM), and dispersion model (DM). The applicability of these models for the interpretation of different tracer data is discussed for a steady state flow approximation. Case studies are given to exemplify the applicability of the lumped-parameter approach. Description of a user-friendly computer program is given. (author). 68 refs, 25 figs, 4 tabs

  10. Lumped parameter models for the interpretation of environmental tracer data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maloszewski, P [GSF-Inst. for Hydrology, Oberschleissheim (Germany); Zuber, A [Institute of Nuclear Physics, Cracow (Poland)

    1996-10-01

    Principles of the lumped-parameter approach to the interpretation of environmental tracer data are given. The following models are considered: the piston flow model (PFM), exponential flow model (EM), linear model (LM), combined piston flow and exponential flow model (EPM), combined linear flow and piston flow model (LPM), and dispersion model (DM). The applicability of these models for the interpretation of different tracer data is discussed for a steady state flow approximation. Case studies are given to exemplify the applicability of the lumped-parameter approach. Description of a user-friendly computer program is given. (author). 68 refs, 25 figs, 4 tabs.

  11. Model of environmental management system for environmentally sustainable universities training in Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rivas Marin, Maria Isabel

    2011-01-01

    Sustainable campuses have become one of the main objectives of the Agendas University as a result of the impacts generated by the activities developed there and affect the environment. Given this, there are environmental management systems which are the set of practices, procedures, processes and resources needed to meet environmental regulations on business and are focused on reducing the impacts on the environment and the efficiency of processes. College- level companies still being considered, these systems do not work efficiently, it is necessary and urgent that the adequacy of a model environmental management system and that, through education and research, will help society to achieve the transition to sustainable lifestyles.

  12. Environmental Warning System Based on the DPSIR Model: A Practical and Concise Method for Environmental Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenqi Wang

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Though we are in urgent need of environmental warnings to slow environmental deterioration, currently, there is no internationally concise method for environmental warnings. In addition, the existing approaches do not combine the three aspects of ecology, resources, and environment. At the same time, the three elements of the environment (air, water, and soil are separated in most environmental warning systems. Thus, the method this paper gives is an innovative attempt and aims to make environmental assessment more practical. This paper establishes the index system of an environmental early warning based on the Driving–Pressure–State–Influence–Response (DPSIR model. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP method was used to determine the weights. Next, single and integrated index methods further assess the environmental warning state, in which the weighted summation method is used to summarize the data and results. The case of Tianjin is used to confirm the applicability of this method. In conclusion, the method in this paper is more well-behaved and, therefore, more suitable to assist cities in their environmental assessment.

  13. Coupling model of energy consumption with changes in environmental utility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Hongming; Jim, C.Y.

    2012-01-01

    This study explores the relationships between metropolis energy consumption and environmental utility changes by a proposed Environmental Utility of Energy Consumption (EUEC) model. Based on the dynamic equilibrium of input–output economics theory, it considers three simulation scenarios: fixed-technology, technological-innovation, and green-building effect. It is applied to analyse Hong Kong in 1980–2007. Continual increase in energy consumption with rapid economic growth degraded environmental utility. First, energy consumption at fixed-technology was determined by economic outcome. In 1990, it reached a critical balanced state when energy consumption was 22×10 9 kWh. Before 1990 (x 1 9 kWh), rise in energy consumption improved both economic development and environmental utility. After 1990 (x 1 >22×10 9 kWh), expansion of energy consumption facilitated socio-economic development but suppressed environmental benefits. Second, technological-innovation strongly influenced energy demand and improved environmental benefits. The balanced state remained in 1999 when energy consumption reached 32.33×10 9 kWh. Technological-innovation dampened energy consumption by 12.99%, exceeding the fixed-technology condition. Finally, green buildings reduced energy consumption by an average of 17.5% in 1990–2007. They contributed significantly to energy saving, and buffered temperature fluctuations between external and internal environment. The case investigations verified the efficiency of the EUEC model, which can effectively evaluate the interplay of energy consumption and environmental quality. - Highlights: ► We explore relationships between metropolis energy consumption and environmental utility. ► An Environmental Utility of Energy Consumption (EUEC) model is proposed. ► Technological innovation mitigates energy consumption impacts on environmental quality. ► Technological innovation decreases demand of energy consumption more than fixed technology scenario

  14. Environmental indicators and international models for making decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Polanco, Camilo

    2006-01-01

    The last international features proposed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation Development (OECD) and United Nations (UN) are analyzed in the use of the environmental indicators, in typology, selection criteria, and models, for organizing the information for management, environmental performance, and decision making. The advantages and disadvantages of each model are analyzed, as well as their environmental index characteristics. The analyzed models are Pressure - State - Response (PSR) and its conceptual developments: Driving Force - State Response (DSR), Driving Force - Pressure - State - Impact - Response (DPSIR), Model- Flow-Quality (MFQ), Pressure - State - Impact - Effect - Response (PSIER), and, finally, Pressure-State - Impact - Effect - Response - Management (PSIERM). The use of one or another model will depend on the quality of the available information, as well as on the proposed objectives

  15. Modeling Influenza Transmission Using Environmental Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soebiyanto, Radina P.; Kiang, Richard K.

    2010-01-01

    Influenza is an acute viral respiratory disease that has significant mortality, morbidity and economic burden worldwide. It infects approximately 5-15% of the world population, and causes 250,000 500,000 deaths each year. The role of environments on influenza is often drawn upon the latitude variability of influenza seasonality pattern. In regions with temperate climate, influenza epidemics exhibit clear seasonal pattern that peak during winter months, but it is not as evident in the tropics. Toward this end, we developed mathematical model and forecasting capabilities for influenza in regions characterized by warm climate Hong Kong (China) and Maricopa County (Arizona, USA). The best model for Hong Kong uses Land Surface Temperature (LST), precipitation and relative humidity as its covariates. Whereas for Maricopa County, we found that weekly influenza cases can be best modelled using mean air temperature as its covariates. Our forecasts can further guides public health organizations in targeting influenza prevention and control measures such as vaccination.

  16. Atlantic Coast Environmental Indicators Consortium

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — n 2000, the US EPA granted authority to establish up to five Estuarine Indicator Research Programs. These Programs were designed to identify, evaluate, recommend and...

  17. Models in environmental regulatory decision making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Committee on Models in the Regulatory Decision Process; National Research Council; Division on Earth and Life Studies; National Research Council

    2007-01-01

    .... The centerpiece of the book's recommended vision is a life-cycle approach to model evaluation which includes peer review, corroboration of results, and other activities. This will enhance the agency's ability to respond to requirements from a 2001 law on information quality and improve policy development and implementation.

  18. Working Group Reports: Working Group 1 - Software Systems Design and Implementation for Environmental Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of the Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Modeling (ISCMEM) is to foster the exchange of information about environmental modeling tools, modeling frameworks, and environmental monitoring databases that are all in the public domain. It is compos...

  19. Land suitability assessment in the catchment area of four Southwestern Atlantic coastal lagoons: multicriteria and optimization modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Gallego, Lorena; Achkar, Marcel; Conde, Daniel

    2012-07-01

    In the present study, a land suitability assessment was conducted in the basin of four Uruguayan coastal lagoons (Southwestern Atlantic) to analyze the productive development while minimizing eutrophication, biodiversity loss and conflicts among different land uses. Suitable land for agriculture, forest, livestock ranching, tourism and conservation sectors were initially established based on a multi-attribute model developed using a geographic information system. Experts were consulted to determine the requirements for each land use sector and the incompatibilities among land use types. The current and potential conflicts among incompatible land use sectors were analyzed by overlapping land suitability maps. We subsequently applied a multi-objective model where land (pixels) with similar suitability was clustered into "land suitability groups", using a two-phase cluster analysis and the Akaike Information Criterion. Finally, a linear programming optimization procedure was applied to allocate land use sectors into land suitable groups, maximizing total suitability and minimizing interference among sectors. Results indicated that current land use overlapped by 4.7 % with suitable land of other incompatible sectors. However, the suitable land of incompatible sectors overlapped in 20.3 % of the study area, indicating a high potential for the occurrence of future conflict. The highest competition was between agriculture and conservation, followed by forest and agriculture. We explored scenarios where livestock ranching and tourism intensified, and found that interference with conservation and agriculture notably increased. This methodology allowed us to analyze current and potential land use conflicts and to contribute to the strategic planning of the study area.

  20. Modeling adaptive and non-adaptive responses to environmental change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Coulson, Tim; Kendall, Bruce E; Barthold, Julia A.

    2017-01-01

    , with plastic responses being either adaptive or non-adaptive. We develop an approach that links quantitative genetic theory with data-driven structured models to allow prediction of population responses to environmental change via plasticity and adaptive evolution. After introducing general new theory, we...... construct a number of example models to demonstrate that evolutionary responses to environmental change over the short-term will be considerably slower than plastic responses, and that the rate of adaptive evolution to a new environment depends upon whether plastic responses are adaptive or non-adaptive....... Parameterization of the models we develop requires information on genetic and phenotypic variation and demography that will not always be available, meaning that simpler models will often be required to predict responses to environmental change. We consequently develop a method to examine whether the full...

  1. A discrete-space urban model with environmental amenities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liaila Tajibaeva; Robert G. Haight; Stephen Polasky

    2008-01-01

    This paper analyzes the effects of providing environmental amenities associated with open space in a discrete-space urban model and characterizes optimal provision of open space across a metropolitan area. The discrete-space model assumes distinct neighborhoods in which developable land is homogeneous within a neighborhood but heterogeneous across neighborhoods. Open...

  2. Integrative Models in Environmental Planning and Policy Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyler, David Clinton

    1984-01-01

    Discusses conceptual models of thought that have recently emerged to confront the conventional approaches to analysis and solution to complex environmental problems. In addition to a critical attack on the tradition of specialization and reductionism, several models are summarized that originated from ecology, cybernetics, and system theory. (BC)

  3. Integrating environmental component models. Development of a software framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schmitz, O.

    2014-01-01

    Integrated models consist of interacting component models that represent various natural and social systems. They are important tools to improve our understanding of environmental systems, to evaluate cause–effect relationships of human–natural interactions, and to forecast the behaviour of

  4. A social identity model of pro-environmental action (SIMPEA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritsche, Immo; Barth, Markus; Jugert, Philipp; Masson, Torsten; Reese, Gerhard

    2018-03-01

    Large-scale environmental crises are genuinely collective phenomena: they usually result from collective, rather than personal, behavior and how they are cognitively represented and appraised is determined by collectively shared interpretations (e.g., differing across ideological groups) and based on concern for collectives (e.g., humankind, future generations) rather than for individuals. Nevertheless, pro-environmental action has been primarily investigated as a personal decision-making process. We complement this research with a social identity perspective on pro-environmental action. Social identity is the human capacity to define the self in terms of "We" instead of "I," enabling people to think and act as collectives, which should be crucial given personal insufficiency to appraise and effectively respond to environmental crises. We propose a Social Identity Model of Pro-Environmental Action (SIMPEA) of how social identity processes affect both appraisal of and behavioral responses to large-scale environmental crises. We review related and pertinent research providing initial evidence for the role of 4 social identity processes hypothesized in SIMPEA. Specifically, we propose that ingroup identification, ingroup norms and goals, and collective efficacy determine environmental appraisals as well as both private and public sphere environmental action. These processes are driven by personal and collective emotions and motivations that arise from environmental appraisal and operate on both a deliberate and automatic processing level. Finally, we discuss SIMPEA's implications for the research agenda in environmental and social psychology and for interventions fostering pro-environmental action. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. Monitoring And Modeling Environmental Water Quality To Support Environmental Water Purchase Decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Null, S. E.; Elmore, L.; Mouzon, N. R.; Wood, J. R.

    2016-12-01

    More than 25 million cubic meters (20,000 acre feet) of water has been purchased from willing agricultural sellers for environmental flows in Nevada's Walker River to improve riverine habitat and connectivity with downstream Walker Lake. Reduced instream flows limit native fish populations, like Lahontan cutthroat trout, through warm daily stream temperatures and low dissolved oxygen concentrations. Environmental water purchases maintain instream flows, although effects on water quality are more varied. We use multi-year water quality monitoring and physically-based hydrodynamic and water quality modeling to estimate streamflow, water temperature, and dissolved oxygen concentrations with alternative environmental water purchases. We simulate water temperature and dissolved oxygen changes from increased streamflow to prioritize the time periods and locations that environmental water purchases most enhance trout habitat as a function of water quality. Monitoring results indicate stream temperature and dissolved oxygen limitations generally exist in the 115 kilometers upstream of Walker Lake (about 37% of the study area) from approximately May through September, and this reach acts as a water quality barrier for fish passage. Model results indicate that low streamflows generally coincide with critically warm stream temperatures, water quality refugia exist on a tributary of the Walker River, and environmental water purchases may improve stream temperature and dissolved oxygen conditions for some reaches and seasons, especially in dry years and prolonged droughts. This research supports environmental water purchase decision-making and allows water purchase decisions to be prioritized with other river restoration alternatives.

  6. Working Group 1: Software System Design and Implementation for Environmental Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    ISCMEM Working Group One Presentation, presentation with the purpose of fostering the exchange of information about environmental modeling tools, modeling frameworks, and environmental monitoring databases.

  7. A regional climate model for the Arctic and the North Atlantic; Ein regionales Klimamodell fuer die Arktis und den Nordatlantik

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berndt, H

    2001-07-01

    The Arctic and the subpolar region of the North Atlantic with their complex net of mechanisms and feedbacks play an important role in the climate system. Because of the sparse observations and the low resolution of the global models the high-resolution regional climate model REMO provides an improved tool to investigate arctic processes. REMO is based on the former numerical weather prediction model EM of the German Weather Service (DWD) and was further developed at the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology (MPIfM) in Hamburg. It has two different parameterization schemes - the original one called DWD-physics and additionally the ECHAM4-physics from MPIfM. The dynamical scheme is in both cases identical. In a first step REMO is adapted to the new domain. This configuration covers the Arctic and the North Atlantic down to 40 N with a horizontal resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 and 121 x 145 grid points. Different periods are simulated with DWD- and ECHAM4-Physics in forecast - as well as in climate-mode. Lateral boundary conditions are taken from NCEP/NCAR-reanalysis. Comparing REMO with ship observations in the Labrador Sea yields a better correspondence than the reanalysis data. Simulated precipitation is overestimated most probably due to unrealistic high humidity in the NCEP/NCAR-reanalysis. Observed sensible heat fluxes are much lower than the REMO and NCEP/NCAR simulated fluxes. REMO simulations in climate- and forecast-mode with ECHAM4-parameterizations are compared with measured surface temperatures and precipitation distributions. While there are numerically generated spectral spikes in the NCEP/NCAR precipitation fields in the Arctic, they are not found in the REMO results. In a sensitivity study the impact of higher surface roughness in the marginal ice zone is investigated. Ensemble experiments show the high internal variability masking any signals due to the changed roughness length. This high internal variability is mostly due to the large model domain and the

  8. Modeling heat stress under different environmental conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carabaño, M J; Logar, B; Bormann, J; Minet, J; Vanrobays, M-L; Díaz, C; Tychon, B; Gengler, N; Hammami, H

    2016-05-01

    Renewed interest in heat stress effects on livestock productivity derives from climate change, which is expected to increase temperatures and the frequency of extreme weather events. This study aimed at evaluating the effect of temperature and humidity on milk production in highly selected dairy cattle populations across 3 European regions differing in climate and production systems to detect differences and similarities that can be used to optimize heat stress (HS) effect modeling. Milk, fat, and protein test day data from official milk recording for 1999 to 2010 in 4 Holstein populations located in the Walloon Region of Belgium (BEL), Luxembourg (LUX), Slovenia (SLO), and southern Spain (SPA) were merged with temperature and humidity data provided by the state meteorological agencies. After merging, the number of test day records/cows per trait ranged from 686,726/49,655 in SLO to 1,982,047/136,746 in BEL. Values for the daily average and maximum temperature-humidity index (THIavg and THImax) ranges for THIavg/THImax were largest in SLO (22-74/28-84) and shortest in SPA (39-76/46-83). Change point techniques were used to determine comfort thresholds, which differed across traits and climatic regions. Milk yield showed an inverted U-shaped pattern of response across the THI scale with a HS threshold around 73 THImax units. For fat and protein, thresholds were lower than for milk yield and were shifted around 6 THI units toward larger values in SPA compared with the other countries. Fat showed lower HS thresholds than protein traits in all countries. The traditional broken line model was compared with quadratic and cubic fits of the pattern of response in production to increasing heat loads. A cubic polynomial model allowing for individual variation in patterns of response and THIavg as heat load measure showed the best statistical features. Higher/lower producing animals showed less/more persistent production (quantity and quality) across the THI scale. The

  9. Physical and Chemical Environmental Abstraction Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nowak, E.

    2000-01-01

    As directed by a written development plan (CRWMS M and O 1999a), Task 1, an overall conceptualization of the physical and chemical environment (P/CE) in the emplacement drift is documented in this Analysis/Model Report (AMR). Included are the physical components of the engineered barrier system (EBS). The intended use of this descriptive conceptualization is to assist the Performance Assessment Department (PAD) in modeling the physical and chemical environment within a repository drift. It is also intended to assist PAD in providing a more integrated and complete in-drift geochemical model abstraction and to answer the key technical issues raised in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Issue Resolution Status Report (IRSR) for the Evolution of the Near-Field Environment (NFE) Revision 2 (NRC 1999). EBS-related features, events, and processes (FEPs) have been assembled and discussed in ''EBS FEPs/Degradation Modes Abstraction'' (CRWMS M and O 2000a). Reference AMRs listed in Section 6 address FEPs that have not been screened out. This conceptualization does not directly address those FEPs. Additional tasks described in the written development plan are recommended for future work in Section 7.3. To achieve the stated purpose, the scope of this document includes: (1) the role of in-drift physical and chemical environments in the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) (Section 6.1); (2) the configuration of engineered components (features) and critical locations in drifts (Sections 6.2.1 and 6.3, portions taken from EBS Radionuclide Transport Abstraction (CRWMS M and O 2000b)); (3) overview and critical locations of processes that can affect P/CE (Section 6.3); (4) couplings and relationships among features and processes in the drifts (Section 6.4); and (5) identities and uses of parameters transmitted to TSPA by some of the reference AMRs (Section 6.5). This AMR originally considered a design with backfill, and is now being updated (REV 00 ICN1) to address

  10. Modeling of environmentally induced transients within satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, N. John; Barbay, Gordon J.; Jones, Michael R.; Viswanathan, R.

    1987-01-01

    A technique is described that allows an estimation of possible spacecraft charging hazards. This technique, called SCREENS (spacecraft response to environments of space), utilizes the NASA charging analyzer program (NASCAP) to estimate the electrical stress locations and the charge stored in the dielectric coatings due to spacecraft encounter with a geomagnetic substorm environment. This information can then be used to determine the response of the spacecraft electrical system to a surface discharge by means of lumped element models. The coupling into the electronics is assumed to be due to magnetic linkage from the transient currents flowing as a result of the discharge transient. The behavior of a spinning spacecraft encountering a severe substorm is predicted using this technique. It is found that systems are potentially vulnerable to upset if transient signals enter through the ground lines.

  11. A resource oriented webs service for environmental modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferencik, Ioan

    2013-04-01

    Environmental modeling is a largely adopted practice in the study of natural phenomena. Environmental models can be difficult to build and use and thus sharing them within the community is an important aspect. The most common approach to share a model is to expose it as a web service. In practice the interaction with this web service is cumbersome due to lack of standardized contract and the complexity of the model being exposed. In this work we investigate the use of a resource oriented approach in exposing environmental models as web services. We view a model as a layered resource build atop the object concept from Object Oriented Programming, augmented with persistence capabilities provided by an embedded object database to keep track of its state and implementing the four basic principles of resource oriented architectures: addressability, statelessness, representation and uniform interface. For implementation we use exclusively open source software: Django framework, dyBase object oriented database and Python programming language. We developed a generic framework of resources structured into a hierarchy of types and consequently extended this typology with recurses specific to the domain of environmental modeling. To test our web service we used cURL, a robust command-line based web client.

  12. Sparse modeling of spatial environmental variables associated with asthma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Timothy S; Gangnon, Ronald E; David Page, C; Buckingham, William R; Tandias, Aman; Cowan, Kelly J; Tomasallo, Carrie D; Arndt, Brian G; Hanrahan, Lawrence P; Guilbert, Theresa W

    2015-02-01

    Geographically distributed environmental factors influence the burden of diseases such as asthma. Our objective was to identify sparse environmental variables associated with asthma diagnosis gathered from a large electronic health record (EHR) dataset while controlling for spatial variation. An EHR dataset from the University of Wisconsin's Family Medicine, Internal Medicine and Pediatrics Departments was obtained for 199,220 patients aged 5-50years over a three-year period. Each patient's home address was geocoded to one of 3456 geographic census block groups. Over one thousand block group variables were obtained from a commercial database. We developed a Sparse Spatial Environmental Analysis (SASEA). Using this method, the environmental variables were first dimensionally reduced with sparse principal component analysis. Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling was then used to identify block group variables associated with asthma from sparse principal components. The addresses of patients from the EHR dataset were distributed throughout the majority of Wisconsin's geography. Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling captured spatial variation of asthma. Four sparse principal components identified via model selection consisted of food at home, dog ownership, household size, and disposable income variables. In rural areas, dog ownership and renter occupied housing units from significant sparse principal components were associated with asthma. Our main contribution is the incorporation of sparsity in spatial modeling. SASEA sequentially added sparse principal components to Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling. This method allowed association of geographically distributed environmental factors with asthma using EHR and environmental datasets. SASEA can be applied to other diseases with environmental risk factors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Flexible Environmental Modeling with Python and Open - GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pryet, Alexandre; Atteia, Olivier; Delottier, Hugo; Cousquer, Yohann

    2015-04-01

    Numerical modeling now represents a prominent task of environmental studies. During the last decades, numerous commercial programs have been made available to environmental modelers. These software applications offer user-friendly graphical user interfaces that allow an efficient management of many case studies. However, they suffer from a lack of flexibility and closed-source policies impede source code reviewing and enhancement for original studies. Advanced modeling studies require flexible tools capable of managing thousands of model runs for parameter optimization, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. In addition, there is a growing need for the coupling of various numerical models associating, for instance, groundwater flow modeling to multi-species geochemical reactions. Researchers have produced hundreds of open-source powerful command line programs. However, there is a need for a flexible graphical user interface allowing an efficient processing of geospatial data that comes along any environmental study. Here, we present the advantages of using the free and open-source Qgis platform and the Python scripting language for conducting environmental modeling studies. The interactive graphical user interface is first used for the visualization and pre-processing of input geospatial datasets. Python scripting language is then employed for further input data processing, call to one or several models, and post-processing of model outputs. Model results are eventually sent back to the GIS program, processed and visualized. This approach combines the advantages of interactive graphical interfaces and the flexibility of Python scripting language for data processing and model calls. The numerous python modules available facilitate geospatial data processing and numerical analysis of model outputs. Once input data has been prepared with the graphical user interface, models may be run thousands of times from the command line with sequential or parallel calls. We

  14. Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burchart-Korol, Dorota; Fugiel, Agata; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna; Turek, Marian

    2016-08-15

    This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Development of Dynamic Spent Nuclear Fuel Environmental Effect Analysis Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Chang Joon; Ko, Won Il; Lee, Ho Hee; Cho, Dong Keun; Park, Chang Je

    2010-07-01

    The dynamic environmental effect evaluation model for spent nuclear fuel has been developed and incorporated into the system dynamic DANESS code. First, the spent nuclear fuel isotope decay model was modeled. Then, the environmental effects were modeled through short-term decay heat model, short-term radioactivity model, and long-term heat load model. By using the developed model, the Korean once-through nuclear fuel cycles was analyzed. The once-through fuel cycle analysis was modeled based on the Korean 'National Energy Basic Plan' up to 2030 and a postulated nuclear demand growth rate until 2150. From the once-through results, it is shown that the nuclear power demand would be ∼70 GWe and the total amount of the spent fuel accumulated by 2150 would be ∼168000 t. If the disposal starts from 2060, the short-term decay heat of Cs-137 and Sr-90 isotopes are W and 1.8x10 6 W in 2100. Also, the total long-term heat load in 2100 will be 4415 MW-y. From the calculation results, it was found that the developed model is very convenient and simple for evaluation of the environmental effect of the spent nuclear fuel

  16. Modeling the Environmental Impact of Air Traffic Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Neil

    2011-01-01

    There is increased interest to understand and mitigate the impacts of air traffic on the climate, since greenhouse gases, nitrogen oxides, and contrails generated by air traffic can have adverse impacts on the climate. The models described in this presentation are useful for quantifying these impacts and for studying alternative environmentally aware operational concepts. These models have been developed by leveraging and building upon existing simulation and optimization techniques developed for the design of efficient traffic flow management strategies. Specific enhancements to the existing simulation and optimization techniques include new models that simulate aircraft fuel flow, emissions and contrails. To ensure that these new models are beneficial to the larger climate research community, the outputs of these new models are compatible with existing global climate modeling tools like the FAA's Aviation Environmental Design Tool.

  17. Evaluation of uncertainties in selected environmental dispersion models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Little, C.A.; Miller, C.W.

    1979-01-01

    Compliance with standards of radiation dose to the general public has necessitated the use of dispersion models to predict radionuclide concentrations in the environment due to releases from nuclear facilities. Because these models are only approximations of reality and because of inherent variations in the input parameters used in these models, their predictions are subject to uncertainty. Quantification of this uncertainty is necessary to assess the adequacy of these models for use in determining compliance with protection standards. This paper characterizes the capabilities of several dispersion models to predict accurately pollutant concentrations in environmental media. Three types of models are discussed: aquatic or surface water transport models, atmospheric transport models, and terrestrial and aquatic food chain models. Using data published primarily by model users, model predictions are compared to observations

  18. Serpentinization of abyssal peridotites from the MARK area, Mid-Atlantic Ridge: Sulfur geochemistry and reaction modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alt, J.C.; Shanks, Wayne C.

    2003-01-01

    The opaque mineralogy and the contents and isotope compositions of sulfur in serpentinized peridotites from the MARK (Mid-Atlantic Ridge, Kane Fracture Zone) area were examined to understand the conditions of serpentinization and evaluate this process as a sink for seawater sulfur. The serpentinites contain a sulfur-rich secondary mineral assemblage and have high sulfur contents (up to 1 wt.%) and elevated ??34Ssulfide (3.7 to 12.7???). Geochemical reaction modeling indicates that seawater-peridotite interaction at 300 to 400??C alone cannot account for both the high sulfur contents and high ??34Ssulfide. These require a multistage reaction with leaching of sulfide from subjacent gabbro during higher temperature (???400??C) reactions with seawater and subsequent deposition of sulfide during serpentinization of peridotite at ???300??C. Serpentinization produces highly reducing conditions and significant amounts of H2 and results in the partial reduction of seawater carbonate to methane. The latter is documented by formation of carbonate veins enriched in 13C (up to 4.5???) at temperatures above 250??C. Although different processes produce variable sulfur isotope effects in other oceanic serpentinites, sulfur is consistently added to abyssal peridotites during serpentinization. Data for serpentinites drilled and dredged from oceanic crust and from ophiolites indicate that oceanic peridotites are a sink for up to 0.4 to 6.0 ?? 1012 g seawater S yr-1. This is comparable to sulfur exchange that occurs in hydrothermal systems in mafic oceanic crust at midocean ridges and on ridge flanks and amounts to 2 to 30% of the riverine sulfate source and sedimentary sulfide sink in the oceans. The high concentrations and modified isotope compositions of sulfur in serpentinites could be important for mantle metasomatism during subduction of crust generated at slow spreading rates. ?? 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd.

  19. Hydraulic modelling of the spatial and temporal variability in Atlantic salmon parr habitat availability in an upland stream.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabris, Luca; Malcolm, Iain Archibald; Buddendorf, Willem Bastiaan; Millidine, Karen Jane; Tetzlaff, Doerthe; Soulsby, Chris

    2017-12-01

    We show how spatial variability in channel bed morphology affects the hydraulic characteristics of river reaches available to Atlantic salmon parr (Salmo salar) under different flow conditions in an upland stream. The study stream, the Girnock Burn, is a long-term monitoring site in the Scottish Highlands. Six site characterised by different bed geometry and morphology were investigated. Detailed site bathymetries were collected and combined with discharge time series in a 2D hydraulic model to obtain spatially distributed depth-averaged velocities under different flow conditions. Available habitat (AH) was estimated for each site. Stream discharge was used according to the critical displacement velocity (CDV) approach. CDV defines a velocity threshold above which salmon parr are not able to hold station and effective feeding opportunities or habitat utilization are reduced, depending on fish size and water temperature. An average value of the relative available habitat () for the most significant period for parr growth - April to May - was used for inter-site comparison and to analyse temporal variations over 40years. Results show that some sites are more able than others to maintain zones where salmon parr can forage unimpeded by high flow velocities under both wet and dry conditions. With lower flow velocities, dry years offer higher values of than wet years. Even though can change considerably across the sites as stream flow changes, the directions of change are consistent. Relative available habitat (RAH) shows a strong relationship with discharge per unit width, whilst channel slope and bed roughness either do not have relevant impact or compensate each other. The results show that significant parr habitat was available at all sites across all flows during this critical growth period, suggesting that hydrological variability is not a factor limiting growth in the Girnock. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Full-field initialized decadal predictions with the MPI earth system model: an initial shock in the North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kröger, Jürgen; Pohlmann, Holger; Sienz, Frank; Marotzke, Jochem; Baehr, Johanna; Köhl, Armin; Modali, Kameswarrao; Polkova, Iuliia; Stammer, Detlef; Vamborg, Freja S. E.; Müller, Wolfgang A.

    2017-12-01

    Our decadal climate prediction system, which is based on the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model, is initialized from a coupled assimilation run that utilizes nudging to selected state parameters from reanalyses. We apply full-field nudging in the atmosphere and either full-field or anomaly nudging in the ocean. Full fields from two different ocean reanalyses are considered. This comparison of initialization strategies focuses on the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (SPG) region, where the transition from anomaly to full-field nudging reveals large differences in prediction skill for sea surface temperature and ocean heat content (OHC). We show that nudging of temperature and salinity in the ocean modifies OHC and also induces changes in mass and heat transports associated with the ocean flow. In the SPG region, the assimilated OHC signal resembles well OHC from observations, regardless of using full fields or anomalies. The resulting ocean transport, on the other hand, reveals considerable differences between full-field and anomaly nudging. In all assimilation runs, ocean heat transport together with net heat exchange at the surface does not correspond to OHC tendencies, the SPG heat budget is not closed. Discrepancies in the budget in the cases of full-field nudging exceed those in the case of anomaly nudging by a factor of 2-3. The nudging-induced changes in ocean transport continue to be present in the free running hindcasts for up to 5 years, a clear expression of memory in our coupled system. In hindcast mode, on annual to inter-annual scales, ocean heat transport is the dominant driver of SPG OHC. Thus, we ascribe a significant reduction in OHC prediction skill when using full-field instead of anomaly initialization to an initialization shock resulting from the poor initialization of the ocean flow.

  1. Consideration of environmental pollution in MESSAGE-type energy models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rentz, O.; Hanicke, T.; Hempelmann, R.

    1981-10-01

    Macroeconomic and microeconomic data are acquired and processed to obtain a model-adequate data base. The MESSAGE model is adapted and implemented. Modifications for specific problems are described. Aspects of environmental pollution are considered for the various energy supply concepts. The model conception is flexible with regard to new technologies, in particular in the field of primary and secondary energy sources, and to cogeneration products (district heat, electric power). (HP) [de

  2. Environmental sub models for a macroeconomic model: Agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, T.S.; Jensen, J.D.; Hasler, B.

    2007-01-01

    Integrated modelling of the interaction between environmental pressure and economic development is a useful tool for evaluating the progress towards sustainable development by analysing the effects on sustainability indicators of the general economic growth and implementation of national action...... economic model, environmental satellite models of energy and waste related emissions contributing to climate change and acidification. The model extension allows the main Danish contribution to climate change and acidification to be modelled. The existing model system is extended by environmental satellite...... models, in which emission coefficients are linked to economic activity variables as modelled by the agricultural sector model ESMERALDA. Agricultural emission sources related to the activity variables in ESMERALDA are mapped in order to develop the environmental satellite models and the development...

  3. Characterising and modelling groundwater discharge in anagricultural wetland on the French Atlantic coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ph. Weng

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Interaction between a wetland and its surrounding aquifer was studied in the Rochefort agricultural marsh (150 km2. Groundwater discharge in the marsh was measured with a network of nested piezometers. Hydrological modelling of the wetland showed that a water volume of 770,000 m3 yr–1 is discharging into the marsh, but that this water flux essentially takes place along the lateral borders of the wetland. However, this natural discharge volume represents only 20% of the artificial freshwater injected each year into the wetland to maintain the water level close to the soil surface. Understanding and quantifying the groundwater component in wetland hydrology is crucial for wetland management and conservation. Keywords: wetland, hydrology, groundwater, modelling, marsh

  4. Atlantic Ocean Circulation at the Last Glacial Maximum: Inferences from Data and Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-01

    Modern TS. Mean dynamic topography (MDT) is the difference between the time averaged sea sur- face and an equipotential surface of Earth’s gravity field...35◦S to 75◦N at 1◦ resolution. Six LGM proxy types are used to constrain the model: four compilations of near sea surface temperatures from the MARGO...176 4.5.1 Near sea surface temperatures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176 4.5.2 Seasonality

  5. An Agent Model Integrating an Adaptive Model for Environmental Dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Treur, J.; Umair, M.

    2011-01-01

    The environments in which agents are used often may be described by dynamical models, e.g., in the form of a set of differential equations. In this paper, an agent model is proposed that can perform model-based reasoning about the environment, based on a numerical (dynamical system) model of the

  6. Evaluating the reliability of predictions made using environmental transfer models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    The development and application of mathematical models for predicting the consequences of releases of radionuclides into the environment from normal operations in the nuclear fuel cycle and in hypothetical accident conditions has increased dramatically in the last two decades. This Safety Practice publication has been prepared to provide guidance on the available methods for evaluating the reliability of environmental transfer model predictions. It provides a practical introduction of the subject and a particular emphasis has been given to worked examples in the text. It is intended to supplement existing IAEA publications on environmental assessment methodology. 60 refs, 17 figs, 12 tabs

  7. Aerosol-Cloud Interactions in the South-East Atlantic: Knowledge Gaps, Planned Observations to Address Them, and Implications for Global Climate Change Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redemann, Jens; Wood, R.; Zuidema, P.; Haywood, J.; Luna, B.; Abel, S.

    2015-01-01

    Southern Africa produces almost a third of the Earth's biomass burning (BB) aerosol particles, yet the fate of these particles and their influence on regional and global climate is poorly understood. Particles lofted into the mid-troposphere are transported westward over the South-East (SE) Atlantic, home to one of the three permanent subtropical Stratocumulus (Sc) cloud decks in the world. The stratocumulus "climate radiators" are critical to the regional and global climate system. They interact with dense layers of BB aerosols that initially overlay the cloud deck, but later subside and are mixed into the clouds. These interactions include adjustments to aerosol-induced solar heating and microphysical effects. As emphasized in the latest IPCC report, the global representation of these aerosol-cloud interaction processes in climate models is one of the largest uncertainty in estimates of future climate. Hence, new observations over the SE Atlantic have significant implications for global climate change scenarios. We discuss the current knowledge of aerosol and cloud property distributions based on satellite observations and sparse suborbital sampling, and describe planned field campaigns in the region. Specifically, we describe the scientific objectives and implementation of the following four synergistic, international research activities aimed at providing a process-level understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions over the SE Atlantic: 1) ORACLES (Observations of Aerosols above Clouds and their interactions), a five-year investigation between 2015 and 2019 with three Intensive Observation Periods (IOP), recently funded by the NASA Earth-Venture Suborbital Program, 2) CLARIFY-2016 (Cloud-Aerosol-Radiation Interactions and Forcing: Year 2016), a comprehensive observational and modeling programme funded by the UK's Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), and supported by the UK Met Office. 3) LASIC (Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds), a funded

  8. Holocene North Atlantic Overturning in an atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice model compared to proxy-based reconstructions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blaschek, M.; Renssen, H.; Kissel, C.; Thornalley, D.

    2015-01-01

    Climate and ocean circulation in the North Atlantic region changed over the course of the Holocene, partly because of disintegrating ice sheets and partly because of an orbital-induced insolation trend. In the Nordic Seas, this impact was accompanied by a rather small, but significant, amount of

  9. Response of the Atlantic Ocean circulation to Greenland Ice Sheet melting in a strongly-eddying ocean model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijer, W.; Maltrud, M.E.; Hecht, M.W.; Dijkstra, H.A.; Kliphuis, M.

    2012-01-01

    The sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to high-latitude freshwater input is one of the key uncertainties in the climate system. Considering the importance of the AMOC for global heat transports, and the vulnerability of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) to global

  10. INACTIVATION OF MS2 VIRUS IN DRINKING WATER: ATLANTIC ULTRAVIOLET CORPORATION MEGATRON UNIT, MODEL M250 AT CHULA VISTA, CALIFORNIA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verification testing of the Atlantic Ultraviolet Megatron M250 system was conducted over a 48-day period from 11/01/01 to 12/18/01. The feedwater to the ultraviolet (UV) unit during the testing was effluent from the Otay Water Treatment Plant (OWTP), a conventional plant with fl...

  11. Developing custom fire behavior fuel models from ecologically complex fuel structures for upper Atlantic Coastal Plain forests.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parresol, Bernard, R.; Scott, Joe, H.; Andreu, Anne; Prichard, Susan; Kurth, Laurie

    2012-01-01

    Currently geospatial fire behavior analyses are performed with an array of fire behavior modeling systems such as FARSITE, FlamMap, and the Large Fire Simulation System. These systems currently require standard or customized surface fire behavior fuel models as inputs that are often assigned through remote sensing information. The ability to handle hundreds or thousands of measured surface fuelbeds representing the fine scale variation in fire behavior on the landscape is constrained in terms of creating compatible custom fire behavior fuel models. In this study, we demonstrate an objective method for taking ecologically complex fuelbeds from inventory observations and converting those into a set of custom fuel models that can be mapped to the original landscape. We use an original set of 629 fuel inventory plots measured on an 80,000 ha contiguous landscape in the upper Atlantic Coastal Plain of the southeastern United States. From models linking stand conditions to component fuel loads, we impute fuelbeds for over 6000 stands. These imputed fuelbeds were then converted to fire behavior parameters under extreme fuel moisture and wind conditions (97th percentile) using the fuel characteristic classification system (FCCS) to estimate surface fire rate of spread, surface fire flame length, shrub layer reaction intensity (heat load), non-woody layer reaction intensity, woody layer reaction intensity, and litter-lichen-moss layer reaction intensity. We performed hierarchical cluster analysis of the stands based on the values of the fire behavior parameters. The resulting 7 clusters were the basis for the development of 7 custom fire behavior fuel models from the cluster centroids that were calibrated against the FCCS point data for wind and fuel moisture. The latter process resulted in calibration against flame length as it was difficult to obtain a simultaneous calibration against both rate of spread and flame length. The clusters based on FCCS fire behavior

  12. A model of the environmental impacts of hydropower projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kemppainen, T.; Haemaelaeinen, I.

    1992-01-01

    The aim was to create a model of the effects of hydropower modernization and extension projects in Finland. To illustrate the effects of hydropower projects a checklist in the form of matrice was constructed. In this matrice all issues that could be significant in future hydropower projects were collected. Stable physical environmental changes are the starting-point for this matrice. The temporary change of hydropower constructions have also been under consideration. These are mainly environmental changes during construction. In chapter two the effects of hydropower modernization and extension projects physical environmental changes were examined. In chapter three the matrice was applied to some example cases. The cases were chosen to represent future hydropower projects. In addition these example cases represent urban areas, rural areas and uninhabited areas. The example cases were the extension of Tainionkoski hydropower plant at Vuoksi river, the modernization of Aeetsae power plant at Kokemaeenjoki river, the modernization of Stadsfors power plant at Lapuanjoki river in the centre of Uusikaarlepyy town and the construction of Kaitfors power plant at Perhonjoki river. Conclusions from usability of the model can be drawn on the ground of the example cases. The purpose of the model is to produce a checklist of estimated environmental effects in hydropower project of various kinds. Examination of issues within the model depends on local circumstances. Endangered animal and plant species, for example, can be studied and estimated only if endangered animal and plant species exist in the area of hydropower plant. Furthermore, the direction and extent of environmental effects depend on the local circumstances. The model is mainly a checklist of environmental effects caused by hydropower plant projects

  13. A model evaluation checklist for process-based environmental models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson-Blake, Leah

    2015-04-01

    Mechanistic catchment-scale phosphorus models appear to perform poorly where diffuse sources dominate. The reasons for this were investigated for one commonly-applied model, the INtegrated model of CAtchment Phosphorus (INCA-P). Model output was compared to 18 months of daily water quality monitoring data in a small agricultural catchment in Scotland, and model structure, key model processes and internal model responses were examined. Although the model broadly reproduced dissolved phosphorus dynamics, it struggled with particulates. The reasons for poor performance were explored, together with ways in which improvements could be made. The process of critiquing and assessing model performance was then generalised to provide a broadly-applicable model evaluation checklist, incorporating: (1) Calibration challenges, relating to difficulties in thoroughly searching a high-dimensional parameter space and in selecting appropriate means of evaluating model performance. In this study, for example, model simplification was identified as a necessary improvement to reduce the number of parameters requiring calibration, whilst the traditionally-used Nash Sutcliffe model performance statistic was not able to discriminate between realistic and unrealistic model simulations, and alternative statistics were needed. (2) Data limitations, relating to a lack of (or uncertainty in) input data, data to constrain model parameters, data for model calibration and testing, and data to test internal model processes. In this study, model reliability could be improved by addressing all four kinds of data limitation. For example, there was insufficient surface water monitoring data for model testing against an independent dataset to that used in calibration, whilst additional monitoring of groundwater and effluent phosphorus inputs would help distinguish between alternative plausible model parameterisations. (3) Model structural inadequacies, whereby model structure may inadequately represent

  14. Regional analysis of soil-atmosphere nitrous oxide emissions in the Northern Atlantic Zone of Costa Rica

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Plant, R.A.J.

    2000-01-01

    Regional analysis of greenhouse gas emissions is becoming increasingly important in answering questions related to environmental change, and typically employs a Geographic Information System (GIS) linked with a process-based simulation model. For the Northern Atlantic Zone (NAZ) in Costa Rica (281

  15. Use of recent geoid models to estimate mean dynamic topography and geostrophic currents in South Atlantic and Brazil Malvinas confluence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Bernardino Lopes

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The use of geoid models to estimate the Mean Dynamic Topography was stimulated with the launching of the GRACE satellite system, since its models present unprecedented precision and space-time resolution. In the present study, besides the DNSC08 mean sea level model, the following geoid models were used with the objective of computing the MDTs: EGM96, EIGEN-5C and EGM2008. In the method adopted, geostrophic currents for the South Atlantic were computed based on the MDTs. In this study it was found that the degree and order of the geoid models affect the determination of TDM and currents directly. The presence of noise in the MDT requires the use of efficient filtering techniques, such as the filter based on Singular Spectrum Analysis, which presents significant advantages in relation to conventional filters. Geostrophic currents resulting from geoid models were compared with the HYCOM hydrodynamic numerical model. In conclusion, results show that MDTs and respective geostrophic currents calculated with EIGEN-5C and EGM2008 models are similar to the results of the numerical model, especially regarding the main large scale features such as boundary currents and the retroflection at the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence.A utilização de modelos geoidais na determinação da Topografia Dinâmica Média foi impulsionada com o lançamento dos satélites do sistema GRACE, já que seus modelos apresentam precisão e resolução espacial e temporal sem precedentes. No presente trabalho, além do modelo de nível médio do mar DNSC08, foram utilizados os seguintes modelos geoidais com o objetivo de calcular as TDMs: EGM96, EIGEN-5C e EGM2008. No método adotado, foram calculadas as respectivas correntes geostróficas para o Atlântico Sul a partir das TDMs. O grau e ordem dos modelos geoidais influenciam diretamente na determinação da TDM e correntes. Neste trabalho verificou-se que presença de ruídos da TDM requer a utilização de técnicas de filtragem

  16. Regional Persistent Organic Pollutants' Environmental Impact Assessment and Control Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jurgis Staniskis

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available The sources of formation, environmental distribution and fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs are increasingly seen as topics to be addressed and solved at the global scale. Therefore, there are already two international agreements concerning persistent organic pollutants: the Protocol of 1998 to the 1979 Convention on the Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution on Persistent Organic Pollutants (Aarhus Protocol; and the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants. For the assessment of environmental pollution of POPs, for the risk assessment, for the evaluation of new pollutants as potential candidates to be included in the POPs list of the Stokholmo or/and Aarhus Protocol, a set of different models are developed or under development. Multimedia models help describe and understand environmental processes leading to global contamination through POPs and actual risk to the environment and human health. However, there is a lack of the tools based on a systematic and integrated approach to POPs management difficulties in the region.

  17. Investigation of the UK37' vs. SST relationship for Atlantic Ocean suspended particulate alkenones: An alternative regression model and discussion of possible sampling bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gould, Jessica; Kienast, Markus; Dowd, Michael

    2017-05-01

    Alkenone unsaturation, expressed as the UK37' index, is closely related to growth temperature of prymnesiophytes, thus providing a reliable proxy to infer past sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Here we address two lingering uncertainties related to this SST proxy. First, calibration models developed for core-top sediments and those developed for surface suspended particulates organic material (SPOM) show systematic offsets, raising concerns regarding the transfer of the primary signal into the sedimentary record. Second, questions remain regarding changes in slope of the UK37' vs. growth temperature relationship at the temperature extremes. Based on (re)analysis of 31 new and 394 previously published SPOM UK37' data from the Atlantic Ocean, a new regression model to relate UK37' to SST is introduced; the Richards curve (Richards, 1959). This non-linear regression model provides a robust calibration of the UK37' vs. SST relationship for Atlantic SPOM samples and uniquely accounts for both the fact that the UK37' index is a proportion, and so must lie between 0 and 1, as well as for the observed reduction in slope at the warm and cold ends of the temperature range. As with prior fits of SPOM UK37' vs. SST, the Richards model is offset from traditional regression models of sedimentary UK37' vs. SST. We posit that (some of) this offset can be attributed to the seasonally and depth biased sampling of SPOM material.

  18. Asymmetric response of tropical cyclone activity to global warming over the North Atlantic and western North Pacific from CMIP5 model projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Doo-Sun R; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Chan, Johnny C L; Ha, Kyung-Ja; Kim, Hyeong-Seog; Kim, Jinwon; Kim, Joo-Hong

    2017-01-30

    Recent improvements in the theoretical understanding of the relationship between tropical cyclones (TCs) and their large-scale environments have resulted in significant improvements in the skill for forecasting TC activity at daily and seasonal time-scales. However, future changes in TC activity under a warmer climate remain uncertain, particularly in terms of TC genesis locations and subsequent pathways. Applying a track-pattern-based statistical model to 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model runs for the historical period and the future period corresponding to the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emissions scenarios, this study shows that in future climate conditions, TC passage frequency will decrease over the North Atlantic, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, but will increase over the western North Pacific, especially that hits Korea and Japan. Unlike previous studies based on fine-resolution models, an ensemble mean of CMIP5 models projects an increase in TC activity in the western North Pacific, which is owing to enhanced subtropical deep convection and favorable dynamic conditions therein in conjunction with the expansion of the tropics and vice versa for the North Atlantic. Our results suggest that North America will experience less TC landfalls, while northeast Asia will experience more TCs than in the present-day climate.

  19. Arctic warming will promote Atlantic-Pacific fish interchange

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wisz, Mary; Broennimann, O.; Grønkjær, Peter

    2015-01-01

    the interchange of marine biota between the two seas. Here, we forecast the potential northward progression of 515 fish species following climate change, and report the rate of potential species interchange between the Atlantic and the Pacific via the Northwest Passage and the Northeast Passage. For this, we...... projected niche-based models under climate change scenarios and simulated the spread of species through the passages when climatic conditions became suitable. Results reveal a complex range of responses during this century, and accelerated interchange after 2050. By 2100 up to 41 species could enter......Throughout much of the Quaternary Period, inhospitable environmental conditions above the Arctic Circle have been a formidable barrier separating most marine organisms in the North Atlantic from those in the North Pacific. Rapid warming has begun to lift this barrier, potentially facilitating...

  20. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaylie Rasmuson; Kurt Rautenstrauch

    2003-01-01

    This analysis is one of nine technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. It documents input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCF). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in the biosphere Technical Work Plan (TWP, BSC 2003a). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development and therefore not available at the time this document is issued. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003b) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters. This analysis report, ANL-MGR-MD-000006, ''Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. This report defines and justifies values for twelve parameters required in the biosphere model. These parameters are related to use of contaminated groundwater to grow crops. The parameter values recommended in this report are used in the soil, plant, and carbon-14 submodels of the ERMYN

  1. 2005 Atlantic Hurricanes Poster

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 2005 Atlantic Hurricanes poster features high quality satellite images of 15 hurricanes which formed in the Atlantic Basin (includes Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean...

  2. Northeast Atlantic blue whiting

    OpenAIRE

    Heino, Mikko

    2010-01-01

    Heino, M. 2010. Northeast Atlantic blue whiting. In Life cycle spatial patterns of small pelagic fish in the Northeast Atlantic, pp. 59-64. Ed by P. Petitgas. ICES Cooperative Research Report 306. ICES, Copenhagen.

  3. Modes of North Atlantic Decadal Variability in the ECHAM1/LSG Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zorita, Eduardo; Frankignoul, Claude

    1997-02-01

    The climate variability in the North Atlantic sector is investigated in a 325-yr integration of the ECHAM1/ LSG coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. At the interannual timescale, the coupled model behaves realistically and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies arise as a response of the oceanic surface layer to the stochastic forcing by the atmosphere, with the heat exchanges both generating and damping the SST anomalies. In the ocean interior, the temperature spectra are red up to a period of about 20 years, and substantial decadal fluctuations are found in the upper kilometer or so of the water column. Using extended empirical orthogonal function analysis, two distinct quasi-oscillatory modes of ocean-atmosphere variability are identified, with dominant periods of about 20 and 10 years, respectively. The oceanic changes in both modes reflect the direct forcing by the atmosphere through anomalous air-sea fluxes and Ekman pumping, which after some delay affects the intensity of the subtropical and subpolar gyres. The SST is also strongly modulated by the gyre currents. In the thermocline, the temperature and salinity fluctuations are in phase, as if caused by thermocline displacements, and they have no apparent connection with the thermohaline circulation. The 20-yr mode is the most energetic one; it is easily seen in the thermocline and can be found in SST data, but it is not detected in the atmosphere alone. As there is no evidence of positive ocean-atmosphere feedback, the 20-yr mode primarily reflects the passive response of the ocean to atmospheric fluctuations, which may be in part associated with climate anomalies appearing a few years earlier in the North Pacific. The 10-yr mode is more surface trapped in the ocean. Although the mode is most easily seen in the temperature variations of the upper few hundred meters of the ocean, it is also detected in the atmosphere alone and thus appears to be a coupled ocean-atmosphere mode. In both modes

  4. Directional heterogeneity in WTP models for environmental valuation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaafsma, M.; Brouwer, R.; Rose, J.

    2012-01-01

    Many studies in the stated preference literature on environmental valuation do not include the effects of substitutes and distance in willingness-to-pay (WTP) models, in spite of the relevance of these effects in aggregation and benefit transfer. Heterogeneity in the availability of substitutes over

  5. Modeling the Relationships between Subdimensions of Environmental Literacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Genc, Murat; Akilli, Mustafa

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to demonstrate the relationships between subdimensions of environmental literacy using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The study was conducted by the analysis of students' answers to questionnaires data using SEM. Initially, Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin and Bartlett's tests were done to test appropriateness of subdimensions to…

  6. Heuristic Model Of The Composite Quality Index Of Environmental Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khabarov, A. N.; Knyaginin, A. A.; Bondarenko, D. V.; Shepet, I. P.; Korolkova, L. N.

    2017-01-01

    The goal of the paper is to present the heuristic model of the composite environmental quality index based on the integrated application of the elements of utility theory, multidimensional scaling, expert evaluation and decision-making. The composite index is synthesized in linear-quadratic form, it provides higher adequacy of the results of the assessment preferences of experts and decision-makers.

  7. Hierarchical modelling for the environmental sciences statistical methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Clark, James S

    2006-01-01

    New statistical tools are changing the way in which scientists analyze and interpret data and models. Hierarchical Bayes and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for analysis provide a consistent framework for inference and prediction where information is heterogeneous and uncertain, processes are complicated, and responses depend on scale. Nowhere are these methods more promising than in the environmental sciences.

  8. The Mathematical modelling of environmental pollution using the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper environmental pollution has been modeled mathematically using the Freundlich non-linear contaminant transport formulation. An analytical solution of lower order perturbation of the concentration C(x,f) is obtained. Flow profiles for various values of molecular diffusion D and the velocity U are studied and the ...

  9. Key processes and input parameters for environmental tritium models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunnenberg, C.; Taschner, M.; Ogram, G.L.

    1994-01-01

    The primary objective of the work reported here is to define key processes and input parameters for mathematical models of environmental tritium behaviour adequate for use in safety analysis and licensing of fusion devices like NET and associated tritium handling facilities. (author). 45 refs., 3 figs

  10. Key processes and input parameters for environmental tritium models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bunnenberg, C; Taschner, M [Niedersaechsisches Inst. fuer Radiooekologie, Hannover (Germany); Ogram, G L [Ontario Hydro, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    1994-12-31

    The primary objective of the work reported here is to define key processes and input parameters for mathematical models of environmental tritium behaviour adequate for use in safety analysis and licensing of fusion devices like NET and associated tritium handling facilities. (author). 45 refs., 3 figs.

  11. Uncertainties in environmental radiological assessment models and their implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, F.O.; Miller, C.W.

    1983-01-01

    Environmental radiological assessments rely heavily on the use of mathematical models. The predictions of these models are inherently uncertain because these models are inexact representations of real systems. The major sources of this uncertainty are related to biases in model formulation and parameter estimation. The best approach for estimating the actual extent of over- or underprediction is model validation, a procedure that requires testing over the range of the intended realm of model application. Other approaches discussed are the use of screening procedures, sensitivity and stochastic analyses, and model comparison. The magnitude of uncertainty in model predictions is a function of the questions asked of the model and the specific radionuclides and exposure pathways of dominant importance. Estimates are made of the relative magnitude of uncertainty for situations requiring predictions of individual and collective risks for both chronic and acute releases of radionuclides. It is concluded that models developed as research tools should be distinguished from models developed for assessment applications. Furthermore, increased model complexity does not necessarily guarantee increased accuracy. To improve the realism of assessment modeling, stochastic procedures are recommended that translate uncertain parameter estimates into a distribution of predicted values. These procedures also permit the importance of model parameters to be ranked according to their relative contribution to the overall predicted uncertainty. Although confidence in model predictions can be improved through site-specific parameter estimation and increased model validation, risk factors and internal dosimetry models will probably remain important contributors to the amount of uncertainty that is irreducible

  12. Parametric Linear Hybrid Automata for Complex Environmental Systems Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samar Hayat Khan Tareen

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Environmental systems, whether they be weather patterns or predator-prey relationships, are dependent on a number of different variables, each directly or indirectly affecting the system at large. Since not all of these factors are known, these systems take on non-linear dynamics, making it difficult to accurately predict meaningful behavioral trends far into the future. However, such dynamics do not warrant complete ignorance of different efforts to understand and model close approximations of these systems. Towards this end, we have applied a logical modeling approach to model and analyze the behavioral trends and systematic trajectories that these systems exhibit without delving into their quantification. This approach, formalized by René Thomas for discrete logical modeling of Biological Regulatory Networks (BRNs and further extended in our previous studies as parametric biological linear hybrid automata (Bio-LHA, has been previously employed for the analyses of different molecular regulatory interactions occurring across various cells and microbial species. As relationships between different interacting components of a system can be simplified as positive or negative influences, we can employ the Bio-LHA framework to represent different components of the environmental system as positive or negative feedbacks. In the present study, we highlight the benefits of hybrid (discrete/continuous modeling which lead to refinements among the fore-casted behaviors in order to find out which ones are actually possible. We have taken two case studies: an interaction of three microbial species in a freshwater pond, and a more complex atmospheric system, to show the applications of the Bio-LHA methodology for the timed hybrid modeling of environmental systems. Results show that the approach using the Bio-LHA is a viable method for behavioral modeling of complex environmental systems by finding timing constraints while keeping the complexity of the model

  13. Model to Evaluate Pro-Environmental Consumer Practices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendolyn Aguilar-Salinas

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The consumer plays a key role in resource conservation; therefore, it is important to know consumer behavior to identify consumer profiles and to promote pro-environmental practices in society that encourage resource conservation and reductions in waste generation. The purpose of this paper is to implement a fuzzy model to evaluate consumer behavior in relation to three pro-environmental practices that can be implemented at the household level, including reductions in resource consumption (reduce, reuse of resources (reuse, and recycling (recycle. To identify socio-demographic profiles that characterize an environmentally responsible consumer, 2831 surveys were applied on a representative sample of consumers residing in a Mexican city. Fuzzy logic and neural networks were applied using a Sugeno-type subtractive clustering to determine each profile. The model input variables were socioeconomic status, age, education level, monthly income, occupation and the type of organizations with which the consumer is affiliated. The output variables were represented by pro-environmental practices. Results show that the consumer practices are performed independently of each other, with the most frequent pro-environmental consumer practices being reduction and reuse.

  14. A model for measuring the environmental sustainability of events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boggia, Antonio; Massei, Gianluca; Paolotti, Luisa; Rocchi, Lucia; Schiavi, Federico

    2018-01-15

    Like all human activities, events can generate significant pressures on environmental resources, unless they are well-managed and monitored. Therefore, it is becoming more and more important to develop models that can measure their environmental sustainability. Although increasing attention is being paid to this sector, there is currently no standard protocol or method to assess the eco-sustainability of events. This article presents an innovative assessment procedure to measure the environmental sustainability of events. It is based on several indicators, combined by means of a multi-criteria approach and aggregated into a final index, which we called METER (Measuring Events Through Environmental Research). The METER index uses nine major operational categories, divided in sub-categories and detailed items, which cover all the main aspects concerning environmental sustainability of an event and are evaluated for all its phases, i.e. planning, organisation, implementation, post event. The index is fairly analytical, and is thus able to represent the numerous aspects to be taken into consideration in the environmental assessment of an event. At the same time, it is simple to apply and user-friendly, thanks to its graphics and effective communication of the web platform within it is implemented. Moreover, METER is based on a participatory approach using the bottom-up model and on the principle of subsidiarity. All official international documents regarding sustainable development now require subsidiarity. However, it is not being currently applied as part of any certification or with any evaluation tool. Therefore, although the index is still a prototype, it represents an innovation in the field of environmental management. A simple exemplary case is presented, about a European Spring School held at University of Perugia (Italy) in 2014, in which the application of METER showed a sustainability assessment score of 638 points out of 1000, with an excellent management

  15. Joint Distributed Surf Zone Environmental Model: FY96 Modeling Procedure

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Allard, Richard

    1997-01-01

    ... to the modeling and simulation community. To test this proof of concept, a suite of models were identified and tested for Camp Pendelton, CA, during two 7 day periods in January and August 1995, in which data from the Coupled Ocean...

  16. Integrating Archival Tag Data and a High-Resolution Oceanographic Model to Estimate Basking Shark (Cetorhinus maximus Movements in the Western Atlantic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camrin D. Braun

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Basking shark (Cetorhinus maximus populations are considered “vulnerable” globally and “endangered” in the northeast Atlantic by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN. Much of our knowledge of this species comes from surface observations in coastal waters, yet recent evidence suggests the majority of their lives may be spent in the deep ocean. Depth preferences of basking sharks have significantly limited movement studies that used pop-up satellite archival transmitting (PSAT tags as conventional light-based geolocation is impossible for tagged animals that spend significant time below the photic zone. We tagged 57 basking sharks with PSAT tags in the NW Atlantic from 2004 to 2011. Many individuals spent several months at meso- and bathy-pelagic depths where accurate light-level geolocation was impossible during fall, winter and spring. We applied a newly-developed geolocation approach for the PSAT data by comparing three-dimensional depth-temperature profile data recorded by the tags to modeled in situ oceanographic data from the high-resolution HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM. Observation-based likelihoods were leveraged within a state-space hidden Markov model (HMM. The combined tracks revealed that basking sharks moved from waters around Cape Cod, MA to as far as the SE coast of Brazil (20°S, a total distance of over 17,000 km. Moreover, 59% of tagged individuals with sufficient deployment durations (>250 days demonstrated seasonal fidelity to Cape Cod and the Gulf of Maine, with one individual returning to within 60 km of its tagging location 1 year later. Tagged sharks spent most of their time at epipelagic depths during summer months around Cape Cod and in the Gulf of Maine. During winter months, sharks spent extended periods at depths of at least 600 m while moving south to the Sargasso Sea, the Caribbean Sea, or the western tropical Atlantic. Our work demonstrates the utility of applying advances in

  17. Integrated environmental modeling: a vision and roadmap for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laniak, Gerard F.; Olchin, Gabriel; Goodall, Jonathan; Voinov, Alexey; Hill, Mary; Glynn, Pierre; Whelan, Gene; Geller, Gary; Quinn, Nigel; Blind, Michiel; Peckham, Scott; Reaney, Sim; Gaber, Noha; Kennedy, Philip R.; Hughes, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Integrated environmental modeling (IEM) is inspired by modern environmental problems, decisions, and policies and enabled by transdisciplinary science and computer capabilities that allow the environment to be considered in a holistic way. The problems are characterized by the extent of the environmental system involved, dynamic and interdependent nature of stressors and their impacts, diversity of stakeholders, and integration of social, economic, and environmental considerations. IEM provides a science-based structure to develop and organize relevant knowledge and information and apply it to explain, explore, and predict the behavior of environmental systems in response to human and natural sources of stress. During the past several years a number of workshops were held that brought IEM practitioners together to share experiences and discuss future needs and directions. In this paper we organize and present the results of these discussions. IEM is presented as a landscape containing four interdependent elements: applications, science, technology, and community. The elements are described from the perspective of their role in the landscape, current practices, and challenges that must be addressed. Workshop participants envision a global scale IEM community that leverages modern technologies to streamline the movement of science-based knowledge from its sources in research, through its organization into databases and models, to its integration and application for problem solving purposes. Achieving this vision will require that the global community of IEM stakeholders transcend social, and organizational boundaries and pursue greater levels of collaboration. Among the highest priorities for community action are the development of standards for publishing IEM data and models in forms suitable for automated discovery, access, and integration; education of the next generation of environmental stakeholders, with a focus on transdisciplinary research, development, and

  18. Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burchart-Korol, Dorota, E-mail: dburchart@gig.eu; Fugiel, Agata, E-mail: afugiel@gig.eu; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna, E-mail: kczaplicka@gig.eu; Turek, Marian, E-mail: mturek@gig.eu

    2016-08-15

    This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500 years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. - Highlights: • A computational LCA model for assessment of coal mining operations • Identification of

  19. Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burchart-Korol, Dorota; Fugiel, Agata; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna; Turek, Marian

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500 years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. - Highlights: • A computational LCA model for assessment of coal mining operations • Identification of

  20. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-09-14

    This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters.

  1. Improving National Capability in Biogeochemical Flux Modelling: the UK Environmental Virtual Observatory (EVOp)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnes, P.; Greene, S.; Freer, J. E.; Bloomfield, J.; Macleod, K.; Reaney, S. M.; Odoni, N. A.

    2012-12-01

    The best outcomes from watershed management arise where policy and mitigation efforts are underpinned by strong science evidence, but there are major resourcing problems associated with the scale of monitoring needed to effectively characterise the sources rates and impacts of nutrient enrichment nationally. The challenge is to increase national capability in predictive modelling of nutrient flux to waters, securing an effective mechanism for transferring knowledge and management tools from data-rich to data-poor regions. The inadequacy of existing tools and approaches to address these challenges provided the motivation for the Environmental Virtual Observatory programme (EVOp), an innovation from the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). EVOp is exploring the use of a cloud-based infrastructure in catchment science, developing an exemplar to explore N and P fluxes to inland and coastal waters in the UK from grid to catchment and national scale. EVOp is bringing together for the first time national data sets, models and uncertainty analysis into cloud computing environments to explore and benchmark current predictive capability for national scale biogeochemical modelling. The objective is to develop national biogeochemical modelling capability, capitalising on extensive national investment in the development of science understanding and modelling tools to support integrated catchment management, and supporting knowledge transfer from data rich to data poor regions, The AERC export coefficient model (Johnes et al., 2007) has been adapted to function within the EVOp cloud environment, and on a geoclimatic basis, using a range of high resolution, geo-referenced digital datasets as an initial demonstration of the enhanced national capacity for N and P flux modelling using cloud computing infrastructure. Geoclimatic regions are landscape units displaying homogenous or quasi-homogenous functional behaviour in terms of process controls on N and P cycling

  2. Modeling impact of environmental factors on photovoltaic array performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Jie; Sun, Yize; Xu, Yang [College of Mechanical Engineering, Donghua University NO.2999, North Renmin Road, Shanghai (China)

    2013-07-01

    It is represented in this paper that a methodology to model and quantify the impact of the three environmental factors, the ambient temperature, the incident irradiance and the wind speed, upon the performance of photovoltaic array operating under outdoor conditions. First, A simple correlation correlating operating temperature with the three environmental variables is validated for a range of wind speed studied, 2-8, and for irradiance values between 200 and 1000. Root mean square error (RMSE) between modeled operating temperature and measured values is 1.19% and the mean bias error (MBE) is -0.09%. The environmental factors studied influence I-V curves, P-V curves, and maximum-power outputs of photovoltaic array. The cell-to-module-to-array mathematical model for photovoltaic panels is established in this paper and the method defined as segmented iteration is adopted to solve the I-V curve expression to relate model I-V curves. The model I-V curves and P-V curves are concluded to coincide well with measured data points. The RMSE between numerically calculated maximum-power outputs and experimentally measured ones is 0.2307%, while the MBE is 0.0183%. In addition, a multivariable non-linear regression equation is proposed to eliminate the difference between numerically calculated values and measured ones of maximum power outputs over the range of high ambient temperature and irradiance at noon and in the early afternoon. In conclusion, the proposed method is reasonably simple and accurate.

  3. Anthropogenic and climatic influences on carbon fluxes from eastern North America to the Atlantic Ocean: A process-based modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Hanqin; Yang, Qichun; Najjar, Raymond G.; Ren, Wei; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M.; Hopkinson, Charles S.; Pan, Shufen

    2015-04-01

    The magnitude, spatiotemporal patterns, and controls of carbon flux from land to the ocean remain uncertain. Here we applied a process-based land model with explicit representation of carbon processes in streams and rivers to examine how changes in climate, land conversion, management practices, atmospheric CO2, and nitrogen deposition affected carbon fluxes from eastern North America to the Atlantic Ocean, specifically the Gulf of Maine (GOM), Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB), and South Atlantic Bight (SAB). Our simulation results indicate that the mean annual fluxes (±1 standard deviation) of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), particulate organic carbon (POC), and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the past three decades (1980-2008) were 2.37 ± 0.60, 1.06 ± 0.20, and 3.57 ± 0.72 Tg C yr-1, respectively. Carbon export demonstrated substantial spatial and temporal variability. For the region as a whole, the model simulates a significant decrease in riverine DIC fluxes from 1901 to 2008, whereas there were no significant trends in DOC or POC fluxes. In the SAB, however, there were significant declines in the fluxes of all three forms of carbon, and in the MAB subregion, DIC and POC fluxes declined significantly. The only significant trend in the GOM subregion was an increase in DIC flux. Climate variability was the primary cause of interannual variability in carbon export. Land conversion from cropland to forest was the primary factor contributing to decreases in all forms of C export, while nitrogen deposition and fertilizer use, as well as atmospheric CO2 increases, tended to increase DOC, POC, and DIC fluxes.

  4. Environmental sub models for a macroeconomic model: agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification in Denmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Trine S; Jensen, Jørgen D; Hasler, Berit; Illerup, Jytte B; Andersen, Frits M

    2007-01-01

    Integrated modelling of the interaction between environmental pressure and economic development is a useful tool to evaluate environmental consequences of policy initiatives. However, the usefulness of such models is often restricted by the fact that these models only include a limited set of environmental impacts, which are often energy-related emissions. In order to evaluate the development in the overall environmental pressure correctly, these model systems must be extended. In this article an integrated macroeconomic model system of the Danish economy with environmental modules of energy related emissions is extended to include the agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification. Next to the energy sector, the agricultural sector is the most important contributor to these environmental themes and subsequently the extended model complex calculates more than 99% of the contribution to both climate change and acidification. Environmental sub-models are developed for agriculture-related emissions of CH(4), N(2)O and NH(3). Agricultural emission sources related to the production specific activity variables are mapped and emission dependent parameters are identified in order to calculate emission coefficients. The emission coefficients are linked to the economic activity variables of the Danish agricultural production. The model system is demonstrated by projections of agriculture-related emissions in Denmark under two alternative sets of assumptions: a baseline projection of the general economic development and a policy scenario for changes in the husbandry sector within the agricultural sector.

  5. Modeling dust emission response to North Atlantic millennial-scale climate variations from the perspective of East European MIS 3 loess deposits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sima

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available European loess sequences of the Marine Isotope Stage 3 (~60–25 kyr BP show periods of strong dust accumulation alternating with episodes of reduced sedimentation, favoring soil development. In the western part of the loess belt centered around 50° N, these variations appear to have been related to the North Atlantic rapid climate changes: the Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO and Heinrich (H events. It has been recently suggested that the North Atlantic climate signal can be detected further east, in loess deposits from Stayky (50°05.65' N, 30°53.92' E, Ukraine. Here we use climate and dust emission modeling to investigate this data interpretation. We focus on the areas north and northeast of the Carpathians, where loess deposits can be found, and the corresponding main dust sources must have been located as well. The simulations were performed with the LMDZ atmospheric general circulation model and the ORCHIDEE land surface model. They represent a reference "Greenland stadial" state and two perturbations, seen as sensitivity tests with respect to changes in the North Atlantic surface conditions between 30° and 63° N: a "Greenland interstadial" and an "H event". The main source for the loess deposits in the studied area is identified as a dust deflation band, with two very active spots located west-northwest from our reference site. Emissions only occur between February and June. Differences from one deflation spot to another, and from one climate state to another, are explained by analyzing the relevant meteorological and surface variables. Over most of the source region, the annual emission fluxes in the "interstadial" experiment are 30 to 50% lower than the "stadial" values; they would only be about 20% lower if the inhibition of dust uplift by the vegetation were not taken into account. Assuming that lower emissions result in reduced dust deposition leads us to the conclusion that the loess–paleosol stratigraphic succession in the Stayky

  6. Inventory of environmental impact models related to energy technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Owen, P.T.; Dailey, N.S.; Johnson, C.A.; Martin, F.M. (eds.)

    1979-02-01

    The purpose of this inventory is to identify and collect data on computer simulations and computational models related to the environmental effects of energy source development, energy conversion, or energy utilization. Information for 33 data fields was sought for each model reported. All of the information which could be obtained within the time alloted for completion of the project is presented for each model listed. Efforts will be continued toward acquiring the needed information. Readers who are interested in these particular models are invited to contact ESIC for assistance in locating them. In addition to the standard bibliographic information, other data fields of interest to modelers, such as computer hardware and software requirements, algorithms, applications, and existing model validation information, are included. Indexes are provided for contact person, acronym, keyword, and title. The models are grouped into the following categories: atmospheric transport, air quality, aquatic transport, terrestrial food chains, soil transport, aquatic food chains, water quality, dosimetry, and human effects, animal effects, plant effects, and generalized environmental transport. Within these categories, the models are arranged alphabetically by last name of the contact person.

  7. Inventory of environmental impact models related to energy technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owen, P.T.; Dailey, N.S.; Johnson, C.A.; Martin, F.M.

    1979-02-01

    The purpose of this inventory is to identify and collect data on computer simulations and computational models related to the environmental effects of energy source development, energy conversion, or energy utilization. Information for 33 data fields was sought for each model reported. All of the information which could be obtained within the time alloted for completion of the project is presented for each model listed. Efforts will be continued toward acquiring the needed information. Readers who are interested in these particular models are invited to contact ESIC for assistance in locating them. In addition to the standard bibliographic information, other data fields of interest to modelers, such as computer hardware and software requirements, algorithms, applications, and existing model validation information, are included. Indexes are provided for contact person, acronym, keyword, and title. The models are grouped into the following categories: atmospheric transport, air quality, aquatic transport, terrestrial food chains, soil transport, aquatic food chains, water quality, dosimetry, and human effects, animal effects, plant effects, and generalized environmental transport. Within these categories, the models are arranged alphabetically by last name of the contact person

  8. EcoMark: Evaluating Models of Vehicular Environmental Impact

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Chenjuan; Ma, Mike; Yang, Bin

    2012-01-01

    The reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transporta- tion is essential for achieving politically agreed upon emissions re- duction targets that aim to combat global climate change. So-called eco-routing and eco-driving are able to substantially reduce GHG emissions caused by vehicular...... the vehicle travels in. We develop an evaluation framework, called EcoMark, for such environmental impact models. In addition, we survey all eleven state-of-the-art impact models known to us. To gain insight into the capabilities of the models and to understand the effectiveness of the EcoMark, we apply...

  9. Stochastic models for predicting environmental impact in aquatic ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stewart-Oaten, A.

    1986-01-01

    The purpose of stochastic predictions are discussed in relation to the environmental impacts of nuclear power plants on aquatic ecosystems. One purpose is to aid in making rational decisions about whether a power plant should be built, where, and how it should be designed. The other purpose is to check on the models themselves in the light of what eventually happens. The author discusses the role or statistical decision theory in the decision-making problem. Various types of stochastic models and their problems are presented. In addition some suggestions are made for generating usable stochastic models, and checking and improving on them. 12 references

  10. The role of Atlantic-Arctic exchange in North Atlantic multidecadal climate variability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frankcombe, L.M.; Dijkstra, H.A.

    2011-01-01

    It has recently been suggested that multidecadal variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperature occurs with two dominant periods. In this paper we investigate the origin of these two time scales in a 500 year control run of the GFDL CM2.1 model. We focus on the exchange between the Atlantic

  11. Temperature fluctuations in the Atlantic Ocean

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hjoello, Solfrid Saetre

    2005-01-01

    The article discusses the temperature fluctuations in connection with drought in Africa, the climate in North America, the European heat waves and the frequent tropical hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean. Problems with climate modelling and some pollution aspects are mentioned

  12. Environmental Modeling Center / Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch

    Science.gov (United States)

    weather and climate. Both have a history. Marine Meteorology Group Products Ocean Winds - Satellite Remote announcement list for changes to our products and services. SDM Contact Notes: Ocean Models -- Avichal Mehra Ocean Waves Sea Ice SST Marine Met. Real Time Ocean Forecasting System (RTOFS) Global RTOFS A hybrid

  13. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-09-10

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA-LA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) (TWP). This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA). This report is one of the five reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model and the mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters. The output of this report is used as direct input in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' and in the ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios, respectively. The purpose of this analysis was to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or in volcanic ash). The analysis

  14. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-01-01

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA-LA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) (TWP). This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA). This report is one of the five reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model and the mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters. The output of this report is used as direct input in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' and in the ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios, respectively. The purpose of this analysis was to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or in volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573])

  15. Modelling environmental change in Europe: towards a model inventory (SEIS/Forward)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Annekathrin; Henrichs, Thomas

    This technical report provides a non-exhaustive overview of modelling tools currently available to simulate future environmental change at a European scale. Modelling tools have become an important cornerstone of environmental assessments, and play an important role in providing the data......, many of which have been used by the European Environment Agency in its recent environmental assessments and reports, a limited number of which are described in more detail. This review identifies gaps in the availability, accessibility and applicability of current modelling tools, and stresses the need...

  16. Specification and Aggregation Errors in Environmentally Extended Input-Output Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwmeester, Maaike C.; Oosterhaven, Jan

    This article considers the specification and aggregation errors that arise from estimating embodied emissions and embodied water use with environmentally extended national input-output (IO) models, instead of with an environmentally extended international IO model. Model specification errors result

  17. Comparison of in situ observations of air traffic emission signatures in the North Atlantic flight corridor with simulations using a Gaussian plume model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Konopka, P; Schlager, H; Schulte, P; Schumann, U; Ziereis, H [Deutsche Forschungsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere; Hagen, D; Whitefield, P [Missouri Univ., Rolla, MO (United States). Lab. for Cloud and Aerosol Science

    1998-12-31

    Focussed aircraft measurements including NO, NO{sub 2}, O{sub 3}, and aerosols (CN) have been carried out over the Eastern North Atlantic as part of the POLINAT (Pollution from Aircraft Emissions in the North Atlantic Flight Corridor) project to search for small and large scale signals of air traffic emissions in the corridor region. Here, the experimental data measured at cruising altitudes on November, 6, 1994 close to peak traffic hours are considered. Observed peak concentrations in small scale NO{sub x} spikes exceed background level of about 50 pptv by up to two orders of magnitude. The measured NO{sub x} concentration field is compared with simulations obtained with a plume dispersion model using collected air traffic data and wind measurements. Additionally, the measured and calculated NO/NO{sub x} ratios are considered. The comparison with the model shows that the observed (multiple-)peaks can be understood as a superposition of several aircraft plumes with ages up to 3 hours. (author) 12 refs.

  18. Comparison of in situ observations of air traffic emission signatures in the North Atlantic flight corridor with simulations using a Gaussian plume model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Konopka, P.; Schlager, H.; Schulte, P.; Schumann, U.; Ziereis, H. [Deutsche Forschungsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere; Hagen, D.; Whitefield, P. [Missouri Univ., Rolla, MO (United States). Lab. for Cloud and Aerosol Science

    1997-12-31

    Focussed aircraft measurements including NO, NO{sub 2}, O{sub 3}, and aerosols (CN) have been carried out over the Eastern North Atlantic as part of the POLINAT (Pollution from Aircraft Emissions in the North Atlantic Flight Corridor) project to search for small and large scale signals of air traffic emissions in the corridor region. Here, the experimental data measured at cruising altitudes on November, 6, 1994 close to peak traffic hours are considered. Observed peak concentrations in small scale NO{sub x} spikes exceed background level of about 50 pptv by up to two orders of magnitude. The measured NO{sub x} concentration field is compared with simulations obtained with a plume dispersion model using collected air traffic data and wind measurements. Additionally, the measured and calculated NO/NO{sub x} ratios are considered. The comparison with the model shows that the observed (multiple-)peaks can be understood as a superposition of several aircraft plumes with ages up to 3 hours. (author) 12 refs.

  19. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaylie Rasmuson; Kurt Rautenstrauch

    2003-06-20

    This analysis is one of nine technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. It documents input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCF). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in the biosphere Technical Work Plan (TWP, BSC 2003a). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development and therefore not available at the time this document is issued. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003b) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters. This analysis report, ANL-MGR-MD-000006, ''Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. This report defines and justifies values for twelve parameters required in the biosphere model. These parameters are related to use of contaminated groundwater to grow crops. The parameter values recommended in this report are used in the soil, plant, and carbon-14 submodels of the ERMYN.

  20. Environmental impact assessments and geological repositories: A model process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Webster, S.

    2000-01-01

    In a recent study carried out for the European Commission, the scope and application of environmental impact assessment (EIA) legislation and current EIA practice in European Union Member States and applicant countries of Central and Eastern Europe was investigated, specifically in relation to the geological disposal of radioactive waste. This paper reports the study's investigations into a model approach to EIA in the context of geological repositories, including the role of the assessment in the overall decision processes and public involvement. (author)

  1. Environmental radionuclide concentrations: statistical model to determine uniformity of distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cawley, C.N.; Fenyves, E.J.; Spitzberg, D.B.; Wiorkowski, J.; Chehroudi, M.T.

    1980-01-01

    In the evaluation of data from environmental sampling and measurement, a basic question is whether the radionuclide (or pollutant) is distributed uniformly. Since physical measurements have associated errors, it is inappropriate to consider the measurements alone in this determination. Hence, a statistical model has been developed. It consists of a weighted analysis of variance with subsequent t-tests between weighted and independent means. A computer program to perform the calculations is included

  2. OPERA models for predicting physicochemical properties and environmental fate endpoints.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansouri, Kamel; Grulke, Chris M; Judson, Richard S; Williams, Antony J

    2018-03-08

    The collection of chemical structure information and associated experimental data for quantitative structure-activity/property relationship (QSAR/QSPR) modeling is facilitated by an increasing number of public databases containing large amounts of useful data. However, the performance of QSAR models highly depends on the quality of the data and modeling methodology used. This study aims to develop robust QSAR/QSPR models for chemical properties of environmental interest that can be used for regulatory purposes. This study primarily uses data from the publicly available PHYSPROP database consisting of a set of 13 common physicochemical and environmental fate properties. These datasets have undergone extensive curation using an automated workflow to select only high-quality data, and the chemical structures were standardized prior to calculation of the molecular descriptors. The modeling procedure was developed based on the five Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) principles for QSAR models. A weighted k-nearest neighbor approach was adopted using a minimum number of required descriptors calculated using PaDEL, an open-source software. The genetic algorithms selected only the most pertinent and mechanistically interpretable descriptors (2-15, with an average of 11 descriptors). The sizes of the modeled datasets varied from 150 chemicals for biodegradability half-life to 14,050 chemicals for logP, with an average of 3222 chemicals across all endpoints. The optimal models were built on randomly selected training sets (75%) and validated using fivefold cross-validation (CV) and test sets (25%). The CV Q 2 of the models varied from 0.72 to 0.95, with an average of 0.86 and an R 2 test value from 0.71 to 0.96, with an average of 0.82. Modeling and performance details are described in QSAR model reporting format and were validated by the European Commission's Joint Research Center to be OECD compliant. All models are freely available as an open

  3. Modeling of environmentally significant interfaces: Two case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williford, R.E.

    2006-01-01

    When some parameters cannot be easily measured experimentally, mathematical models can often be used to deconvolute or interpret data collected on complex systems, such as those characteristic of many environmental problems. These models can help quantify the contributions of various physical or chemical phenomena that contribute to the overall behavior, thereby enabling the scientist to control and manipulate these phenomena, and thus to optimize the performance of the material or device. In the first case study presented here, a model is used to test the hypothesis that oxygen interactions with hydrogen on the catalyst particles of solid oxide fuel cell anodes can sometimes occur a finite distance away from the triple phase boundary (TPB), so that such reactions are not restricted to the TPB as normally assumed. The model may help explain a discrepancy between the observed structure of SOFCs and their performance. The second case study develops a simple physical model that allows engineers to design and control the sizes and shapes of mesopores in silica thin films. Such pore design can be useful for enhancing the selectivity and reactivity of environmental sensors and catalysts. This paper demonstrates the mutually beneficial interactions between experiment and modeling in the solution of a wide range of problems

  4. Kumaraswamy autoregressive moving average models for double bounded environmental data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayer, Fábio Mariano; Bayer, Débora Missio; Pumi, Guilherme

    2017-12-01

    In this paper we introduce the Kumaraswamy autoregressive moving average models (KARMA), which is a dynamic class of models for time series taking values in the double bounded interval (a,b) following the Kumaraswamy distribution. The Kumaraswamy family of distribution is widely applied in many areas, especially hydrology and related fields. Classical examples are time series representing rates and proportions observed over time. In the proposed KARMA model, the median is modeled by a dynamic structure containing autoregressive and moving average terms, time-varying regressors, unknown parameters and a link function. We introduce the new class of models and discuss conditional maximum likelihood estimation, hypothesis testing inference, diagnostic analysis and forecasting. In particular, we provide closed-form expressions for the conditional score vector and conditional Fisher information matrix. An application to environmental real data is presented and discussed.

  5. Socio-Environmental Resilience and Complex Urban Systems Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deal, Brian; Petri, Aaron; Pan, Haozhi; Goldenberg, Romain; Kalantari, Zahra; Cvetkovic, Vladimir

    2017-04-01

    The increasing pressure of climate change has inspired two normative agendas; socio-technical transitions and socio-ecological resilience, both sharing a complex-systems epistemology (Gillard et al. 2016). Socio-technical solutions include a continuous, massive data gathering exercise now underway in urban places under the guise of developing a 'smart'(er) city. This has led to the creation of data-rich environments where large data sets have become central to monitoring and forming a response to anomalies. Some have argued that these kinds of data sets can help in planning for resilient cities (Norberg and Cumming 2008; Batty 2013). In this paper, we focus on a more nuanced, ecologically based, socio-environmental perspective of resilience planning that is often given less consideration. Here, we broadly discuss (and model) the tightly linked, mutually influenced, social and biophysical subsystems that are critical for understanding urban resilience. We argue for the need to incorporate these sub system linkages into the resilience planning lexicon through the integration of systems models and planning support systems. We make our case by first providing a context for urban resilience from a socio-ecological and planning perspective. We highlight the data needs for this type of resilient planning and compare it to currently collected data streams in various smart city efforts. This helps to define an approach for operationalizing socio-environmental resilience planning using robust systems models and planning support systems. For this, we draw from our experiences in coupling a spatio-temporal land use model (the Landuse Evolution and impact Assessment Model (LEAM)) with water quality and quantity models in Stockholm Sweden. We describe the coupling of these systems models using a robust Planning Support System (PSS) structural framework. We use the coupled model simulations and PSS to analyze the connection between urban land use transformation (social) and water

  6. Proceedings of the international symposium on environmental modeling and radioecology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hisamatsu, Shun'ichi; Ueda, Shinji; Kakiuchi, Hideki; Akata, Naofumi

    2007-03-01

    Environmental models using radioecological parameters are essential for predicting the behavior of radionuclides in the environment. Due to the complex behaviors of radionuclides in the environment, simplified models and parameters with ample margins are used for the safety assessment of nuclear facilities to ensure the safety of people in the surrounding area. As a consequence, radiation exposure doses from the radionuclides have generally been overestimated. Information with more precise predictions of the fate of the radionuclides in the environment and realistic radiation dose estimates are necessary for the public acceptance of nuclear facilities. Realistic dose estimates require continuous improvement of the models and their parameters as well as using state of the art modeling techniques and radioecological knowledge. The first commercial nuclear fuel reprocessing plant in Japan has been built in Rokkasho, Aomori, and the Institute for Environmental Sciences was established for the purpose of assessing the effects of radionuclides released from the plant. Test runs by the plant using actual spent nuclear fuel began in March 2006. With commercial operation soon to begin, there is increasing concern regarding the behavior of radionuclides in the environment. This was a good time to hold a symposium here in Rokkasho to discuss recent progress in the field of environmental modeling and studies of the behaviors of radionuclides in the environment. The exchange of up-to-date information between modelers and experiments was an important aspect of the symposium. The symposium featured 26 oral lectures and 32 poster presentations. The 57 of the presented papers are indexed individually. (J.P.N.)

  7. Marine radionuclide transport in the northern North Atlantic estimated with an eddy-permitting ocean model - Marine radionuclide transport in the Northern North Atlantic estimated with an Eddy-resolving ocean model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simonsen, Magne [Norwegian Meteorological institute, P.O. Box 43 Blindern, N-0313 Oslo (Norway); Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, N-1432 Aas (Norway); Isachsen, Paal E.; Saetra, Oeyvind; Klein, Heiko; Bartnicki, Jerzy [Norwegian Meteorological institute, P.O. Box 43 Blindern, N-0313 Oslo (Norway); Salbu, Brit; Lind, Ole C. [Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, N-1432 Aas (Norway)

    2014-07-01

    As a part of the Norwegian Centre for Environmental Radioactivity (CERAD), we have studied transport of radionuclides in the Nordic Seas using an eddy-resolving ocean model. Transport and dispersion is estimated by both Lagrangian (particle) and Eulerian (tracer) methods using currents generated by the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) at 4 km horizontal resolution. This relatively high resolution gives a more accurate description of the impact of macro-turbulent advection on transport paths and transport times than achieved in previous studies. The experiments cover historical discharges from the Sellafield reprocessing plant as well as hypothetical accident scenarios from power plants in Great Britain. For the historical Sellafield discharges, model calculations are compared to isotope concentrations observed along the Norwegian Coast and in the Barents Sea. For the accident scenarios, the likely impact on the Norwegian coastal zone is studied considering three different sources for the ocean: direct local discharge, far-field deposition from the atmosphere, and discharge via Norwegian rivers (via atmospheric deposition over land). (authors)

  8. Internal variability in a 1000-yr control simulation with the coupled climate model ECHO-G - II. El Nino Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Min, Seung-Ki; Hense, Andreas [Univ. of Bonn (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Legutke, Stephanie [Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Kwon, Won-Tae [Meteorological Research Inst., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2005-08-01

    A 1000-yr control simulation (CTL) performed with the atmosphere-ocean global climate model ECHO-G is analysed with regard to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the two major natural climatic variabilities, in comparison with observations and other model simulations. The ENSO-related sea surface temperature climate and its seasonal cycle in the tropical Pacific and a single Intertropical Convergence Zone in the eastern tropical Pacific are simulated reasonably, and the ENSO phase-locking to the annual cycle and the subsurface ocean behaviour related to equatorial wave dynamics are also reproduced well. The simulated amplitude of the ENSO signal is however too large and its occurrence is too regular and frequent. Also, the observed westward propagation of zonal wind stress over the equatorial Pacific is not captured by the model. Nevertheless, the ENSO-related teleconnection patterns of near-surface temperature (T2m), precipitation (PCP) and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) are reproduced realistically. The NAO index, defined as the MSLP difference between Gibraltar and Iceland, has a 'white' noise spectrum similar to that of the detrended index obtained from observed data. The correlation and regression patterns of T2m, PCP and MSLP with the NAO index are also successfully simulated. However, the model overestimates the warming over the North Pacific in the high index phase of the NAO, a feature it shares with other coupled models. This might be associated with an enhanced Atlantic/Pacific teleconnection, which is hardly seen in the observations. A detection analysis of the NAO index shows that the observed recent 4060 yr trend cannot be explained by the model's internal variability while the recent 2030 yr trend occurs with a more than 1% chance in ECHO-G CTL.

  9. 78 FR 23224 - Fisheries of the South Atlantic; South Atlantic Fishery Management Council; Public Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-18

    ... Agenda, Tuesday, May 7, 2013, 8:30 a.m. until 4:30 p.m. 1. Review draft Essential Fish Habitat (EFH... of the South Atlantic Fishery Management Council's Habitat & Environmental Protection Advisory Panel (AP); Coral AP; Joint Meeting of the Habitat & Environmental Protection AP and Coral AP; and Deepwater...

  10. Environmental challenges and opportunities of the evolving North American electricity market : Modeling techniques and estimating environmental outcomes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patterson, Z.

    2002-06-01

    Background information and results of the different models publicly available used for the evaluation of environmental effects of electricity market restructuring in the various jurisdictions in North America were included in this working paper. It comprised the description of eleven models and twelve modeling exercises. The information on each model varied greatly, as it is proprietary. The models described were: (1) the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), (2) the Department of Energy's Policy Office Electricity Modeling System (POEMS), (3) the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) utilized by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA), (4) Resources for the Future's (RFF) Haiku model, (5) the Canadian Energy Research Institute's Energy 2020 Model, (6) the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's (FERC) use of ICF's Coal and Electric Utilities Model, (7) the Center for Clean Air Policy's use of General Electric's Market Assessment and Portfolio Strategies (GE MAPS) model, (8) the Center for Clean Air Policy's use of GE MAPS in combination with New Energy Associates' Proscreen II, (9) the Commission for Environmental Cooperation use of the Front of Envelope Model, (10) Ontario Power Generation's use of the Utility Fuel Economics Model and National Power Model, and (11) New York State Department of Public Service's (NYDPS) Final Generic Environmental Impact Statement using New Energy Associates' PROMOD. Also included in this working paper was a comparison of the results of models and modeling exercises on which the estimation of the environmental effects of electricity market restructuring in the United States was based. 18 refs., 5 tabs

  11. Modeling Of Construction Noise For Environmental Impact Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed F. Hamoda

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available This study measured the noise levels generated at different construction sites in reference to the stage of construction and the equipment used, and examined the methods to predict such noise in order to assess the environmental impact of noise. It included 33 construction sites in Kuwait and used artificial neural networks (ANNs for the prediction of noise. A back-propagation neural network (BPNN model was compared with a general regression neural network (GRNN model. The results obtained indicated that the mean equivalent noise level was 78.7 dBA which exceeds the threshold limit. The GRNN model was superior to the BPNN model in its accuracy of predicting construction noise due to its ability to train quickly on sparse data sets. Over 93% of the predictions were within 5% of the observed values. The mean absolute error between the predicted and observed data was only 2 dBA. The ANN modeling proved to be a useful technique for noise predictions required in the assessment of environmental impact of construction activities.

  12. Review of hydrodynamic and transport models and data collected near the mid-Atlantic low-level radioactive waste disposal sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onishi, Y.; Hibler, L.F.; Sherwood, C.R.

    1987-08-01

    The objectives of this study were to (1) briefly review and evaluate available simulation models that may be used to predict the distribution of low-level radioactive waste (LLW) from the 2800-m and 3800-m Low Level Radioactive Disposal Sites in the Mid-Atlantic Continental Slope and Rise on a regional (a few hundred kilometers square) scale, (2) identify pertinent physical, biological, and geological oceanographic data in or near those LLW disposal sites, and (3) determine minimum data requirements for regional modeling. With suitable model modifications such as turbulence closure, enhanced sediment transport, radionuclide transport, and/or curvilinear coordinate system setup, the FLESCOT model, the FLOWER model, and Blumberg's model would be appropriate candidates for regional radionuclide modeling to predict the transport and dispersion of LLW disposed in the 2800-m and 3800-m sites. Although the RMA10 model does not incorporate a turbulence closure scheme, this model, with some modifications, is also an appropriate candidate for regional radionuclide modeling. FLESCOT is currently the only one that solves distributions of flow, turbulence, salinity, water temperature, sediments, dissolved contaminants, and sediment-sorbed contaminants. Thus, the FLESCOT model is recommended to be applied to the 2800-m and 3800-m sites to predict the transport and accumulation of LLW on a regional scale

  13. A Spatio-Temporal Model of Phenotypic Evolution in the Atlantic Silverside (Menidia menidia) and Its Implications for Size-Selective Fishing in a Warmer World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sbrocco, E. J.

    2016-02-01

    A pervasive phenotypic pattern observed across marine fishes is that vertebral number increases with latitude. Jordan's Rule, as it is known, holds true both within and across species, and like other ecogeographic principles (e.g., Bergmann's Rule), it is presumed to be an adaptive response to latitudinal gradients in temperature. As such, future ocean warming is expected to impact not only the geographic range limits of marine fishes that conform to Jordan's Rule, but also their phenotype, with warmer waters selecting for fish with fewer vertebrae at any given latitude. Here I present a model of phenotypic evolution over space and time for the Atlantic silverside (Menidia menidia), a common marine fish found in coastal waters along the western North Atlantic. This species has long served as a model organism for the study of fisheries-induced selection and exhibits numerous latitudinal clines in phenotypic and life-history traits, including vertebral number. Common garden experiments have shown that vertebral number is genetically determined in this species, but correlative models of observed vertebral counts and climate reveal that SST is the single strongest predictor of phenotype, even after accounting for gene flow. This result indicates that natural selection is responsible for maintaining vertebral clines in the silverside, and allows for the prediction of phenotypic responses to ocean warming. By integrating genetic estimates of population connectivity, species distribution models, and statistical models, I find that by the end of the 21st century, ocean warming will select for silversides with up to 8% fewer vertebrae. Mid-Atlantic populations are the most mal-adapted for future conditions, but may be rescued by migration from small-phenotype southern neighbors or by directional selection. Despite smaller temperature anomalies, the strongest impacts of warming will be felt at both northern and southern edges of the distribution, where genetic rescue from

  14. Study on the development of geological environmental model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsujimoto, Keiichi; Shinohara, Yoshinori; Ueta, Shinzo; Saito, Shigeyuki; Kawamura, Yuji; Tomiyama, Shingo; Ohashi, Toyo

    2002-03-01

    The safety performance assessment was carried out in potential geological environment in the conventional research and development of geological disposal, but the importance of safety assessment based on the repository design and scenario considering the concrete geological environment will increase in the future. The research considering the link of the major three fields of geological disposal, investigation of geological environment, repository design, and safety performance assessment, is the contemporary worldwide research theme. Hence it is important to organize information flow that contains the series of information process form the data production to analysis in the three fields, and to systemize the knowledge base that unifies the information flow hierarchically. The purpose of the research is to support the development of the unified analysis system for geological disposal. The development technology for geological environmental model studied for the second progress report by JNC are organized and examined for the purpose of developing database system with considering the suitability for the deep underground research facility. The geological environmental investigation technology and building methodology for geological structure and hydro geological structure models are organized and systemized. Furthermore, the quality assurance methods in building geological environment models are examined. Information which is used and stored in the unified analysis system are examined to design database structure of the system based on the organized methodology for building geological environmental model. The graphic processing function for data stored in the unified database are examined. furthermore, future research subjects for the development of detail models for geological disposal are surveyed to organize safety performance system. (author)

  15. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wasiolek, M. A.

    2003-01-01

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2003 [163602]). Some documents in Figure 1-1 may be under development and not available when this report is issued. This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA), but access to the listed documents is not required to understand the contents of this report. This report is one of the reports that develops input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes the conceptual model, the mathematical model, and the input parameters. The purpose of this analysis is to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2003 [163602]). This analysis develops values of parameters associated with many features, events, and processes (FEPs) applicable to the reference biosphere (DTN: M00303SEPFEPS2.000 [162452]), which are addressed in the biosphere model (BSC 2003 [160699]). The treatment of these FEPs is described in BSC (2003 [160699], Section 6.2). Parameter values

  16. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-06-27

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2003 [163602]). Some documents in Figure 1-1 may be under development and not available when this report is issued. This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA), but access to the listed documents is not required to understand the contents of this report. This report is one of the reports that develops input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes the conceptual model, the mathematical model, and the input parameters. The purpose of this analysis is to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2003 [163602]). This analysis develops values of parameters associated with many features, events, and processes (FEPs) applicable to the reference biosphere (DTN: M00303SEPFEPS2.000 [162452]), which are addressed in the biosphere model (BSC 2003 [160699]). The treatment of these FEPs is described in BSC (2003 [160699

  17. GHRSST Level 2P West Atlantic Regional Skin Sea Surface Temperature from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) Imager on the GOES-12 satellite (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) operated by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) support weather...

  18. Dose estimation models for environmental tritium released from fusion facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murata, Mikio

    1993-01-01

    Various mathematical models are being developed to predict the behavior of HT released to the natural environment and their consequent impact. This report outlines models and the major findings of HT field release studies in France and Canada. The models are constructed to incorporate the key processes thought to be responsible for the formation of atmospheric HTO from a release of HT. It has been established from the experiments that HT oxidized in surface soil is incorporated almost entirely into soil water as HTO. This tritium may be reemitted to the atmosphere in the form of HTO through exchange of soil and atmospheric moisture as well as through the bulk water mass flux from the soil the atmosphere due to evaporation and transpiration. The direct conversion of HT to HTO in air and direct uptake of HT by vegetation are expected to be negligible for the time and space scales of interest in considering short duration releases. HTO emitted to the atmosphere is can further exchange with soil and vegetation water. Validation of these models against experimental data is conducted to demonstrate their credibility. It may be concluded that further laboratory and field works are needed in order to develop a sufficiently good understanding of the dependence of the key processes on environmental factors (including diurnal cycling and seasonality) to allow the rates of the processes to be predicted from a knowledge of environmental conditions. (author)

  19. Environmental Pathway Models-Ground-Water Modeling in Support of Remedial Decision Making at Sites Contaminated with Radioactive Material

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Joint Interagency Environmental Pathway Modeling Working Group wrote this report to promote appropriate and consistent use of mathematical environmental models in the remediation and restoration of sites contaminated by radioactive substances.

  20. Integration of models for the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Napier, B.A.

    1991-01-01

    The objective of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project is to estimate the radiation dose that individuals could have received as a result of emissions from nuclear operations at Hanford since 1944. The objective of phase 1 of the project was to demonstrate through calculations that adequate models and support data exist or could be developed to allow realistic estimations of doses to individuals from releases of radionuclides to the environment that occurred as long as 45 years ago. Much of the data used in phase 1 was preliminary; therefore, the doses calculated must be considered preliminary approximations. This paper describes the integration of various models that was implemented for initial computer calculations. Models were required for estimating the quantity of radioactive material released, for evaluating its transport through the environment, for estimating human exposure, and for evaluating resultant doses

  1. Modelling of Electrokinetic Processes in Civil and Environmental Engineering Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paz-Garcia, Juan Manuel; Johannesson, Björn; Ottosen, Lisbeth M.

    2011-01-01

    conditions are assumed between the aqueous species and the solid matrix for a set of feasible chemical equilibrium reactions defined for each specific application. A module for re-establishing the chemical equilibrium has been developed and included in the system for this purpose. Changes in the porosity......A mathematical model for the electrokinetic phenomena is described. Numerical simulations of different applications of electrokinetic techniques to the fields of civil and environmental engineering are included, showing the versatility and consistency of the model. The electrokinetics phenomena......-Nernst-Planck system of equations, accounting for ionic migration, chemical diffusion and advection is used for modeling the transport process. The advection term contributor is studied by including in the system the water transport through the porous media, mainly due to electroosmosis. The pore solution filling...

  2. Assessing the Hydrogeomorphic Effects of Environmental Flows using Hydrodynamic Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, Angela; Morrison, Ryan R; Stone, Mark

    2018-04-13

    Water managers are increasingly using environmental flows (e-flows) as a tool to improve ecological conditions downstream from impoundments. Recent studies have called for e-flow approaches that explicitly consider impacts on hydrogeomorphic processes when developing management alternatives. Process-based approaches are particularly relevant in river systems that have been highly modified and where water supplies are over allocated. One-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic models can be used to resolve hydrogeomorphic processes at different spatial and temporal scales to support the development, testing, and refinement of e-flow hypotheses. Thus, the objective of this paper is to demonstrate the use of hydrodynamic models as a tool for assisting stakeholders in targeting and assessing environmental flows within a decision-making framework. We present a case study of e-flows on the Rio Chama in northern New Mexico, USA, where 1D and 2D hydrodynamic modeling was used within a collaborative process to implement an e-flow experiment. A specific goal of the e-flow process was to improve spawning habitat for brown trout by flushing fine sediments from gravel features. The results revealed that the 2D hydrodynamic model provided much greater insight with respect to hydrodynamic and sediment transport processes, which led to a reduction in the recommended e-flow discharge. The results suggest that 2D hydrodynamic models can be useful tools for improving process understanding, developing e-flow recommendations, and supporting adaptive management even when limited or no data are available for model calibration and validation.

  3. Guidance for modeling causes and effects in environmental problem solving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armour, Carl L.; Williamson, Samuel C.

    1988-01-01

    Environmental problems are difficult to solve because their causes and effects are not easily understood. When attempts are made to analyze causes and effects, the principal challenge is organization of information into a framework that is logical, technically defensible, and easy to understand and communicate. When decisionmakers attempt to solve complex problems before an adequate cause and effect analysis is performed there are serious risks. These risks include: greater reliance on subjective reasoning, lessened chance for scoping an effective problem solving approach, impaired recognition of the need for supplemental information to attain understanding, increased chance for making unsound decisions, and lessened chance for gaining approval and financial support for a program/ Cause and effect relationships can be modeled. This type of modeling has been applied to various environmental problems, including cumulative impact assessment (Dames and Moore 1981; Meehan and Weber 1985; Williamson et al. 1987; Raley et al. 1988) and evaluation of effects of quarrying (Sheate 1986). This guidance for field users was written because of the current interest in documenting cause-effect logic as a part of ecological problem solving. Principal literature sources relating to the modeling approach are: Riggs and Inouye (1975a, b), Erickson (1981), and United States Office of Personnel Management (1986).

  4. Animal Models of Autism: An Epigenetic and Environmental Viewpoint

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keiko Iwata

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Autism is a neurodevelopmental disorder of social behavior, which is more common in males than in females. The causes of autism are unknown; there is evidence for a substantial genetic component, but it is likely that a combination of genetic, environmental and epigenetic factors contribute to its complex pathogenesis. Rodent models that mimic the behavioral deficits of autism can be useful tools for dissecting both the etiology and molecular mechanisms. This review discusses animal models of autism generated by prenatal or neonatal environmental challenges, including virus infection and exposure to valproic acid (VPA or stress. Studies of viral infection models suggest that interleukin-6 can influence fetal development and programming. Prenatal exposure to the histone deacetylase inhibitor VPA has been linked to autism in children, and male VPA-exposed rats exhibit a spectrum of autistic-like behaviors. The experience of prenatal stress produces male-specific behavioral abnormalities in rats. These effects may be mediated by epigenetic modifications such as DNA methylation and histone acetylation resulting in alterations to the transcriptome.

  5. Simultaneity modeling analysis of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ben Youssef, Adel; Hammoudeh, Shawkat; Omri, Anis

    2016-01-01

    The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis has been recognized in the environmental economics literature since the 1990's. Various statistical tests have been used on time series, cross section and panel data related to single and groups of countries to validate this hypothesis. In the literature, the validation has always been conducted by using a single equation. However, since both the environment and income variables are endogenous, the estimation of a single equation model when simultaneity exists produces inconsistent and biased estimates. Therefore, we formulate simultaneous two-equation models to investigate the EKC hypothesis for fifty-six countries, using annual panel data from 1990 to 2012, with the end year is determined by data availability for the panel. To make the panel data analysis more homogeneous, we investigate this issue for a three income-based panels (namely, high-, middle-, and low-income panels) given several explanatory variables. Our results indicate that there exists a bidirectional causality between economic growth and pollution emissions in the overall panels. We also find that the relationship is nonlinear and has an inverted U-shape for all the considered panels. Policy implications are provided. - Highlights: • We have given a new look for the validity of the EKC hypothesis. • We formulate two-simultaneous equation models to validate this hypothesis for fifty-six countries. • We find a bidirectional causality between economic growth and pollution emissions. • We also discover an inverted U-shaped between environmental degradation and economic growth. • This relationship varies at different stages of economic development.

  6. Genomic organization and evolution of the Atlantic salmon hemoglobin repertoire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Phillips Ruth B

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The genomes of salmonids are considered pseudo-tetraploid undergoing reversion to a stable diploid state. Given the genome duplication and extensive biological data available for salmonids, they are excellent model organisms for studying comparative genomics, evolutionary processes, fates of duplicated genes and the genetic and physiological processes associated with complex behavioral phenotypes. The evolution of the tetrapod hemoglobin genes is well studied; however, little is known about the genomic organization and evolution of teleost hemoglobin genes, particularly those of salmonids. The Atlantic salmon serves as a representative salmonid species for genomics studies. Given the well documented role of hemoglobin in adaptation to varied environmental conditions as well as its use as a model protein for evolutionary analyses, an understanding of the genomic structure and organization of the Atlantic salmon α and β hemoglobin genes is of great interest. Results We identified four bacterial artificial chromosomes (BACs comprising two hemoglobin gene clusters spanning the entire α and β hemoglobin gene repertoire of the Atlantic salmon genome. Their chromosomal locations were established using fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH analysis and linkage mapping, demonstrating that the two clusters are located on separate chromosomes. The BACs were sequenced and assembled into scaffolds, which were annotated for putatively functional and pseudogenized hemoglobin-like genes. This revealed that the tail-to-tail organization and alternating pattern of the α and β hemoglobin genes are well conserved in both clusters, as well as that the Atlantic salmon genome houses substantially more hemoglobin genes, including non-Bohr β globin genes, than the genomes of other teleosts that have been sequenced. Conclusions We suggest that the most parsimonious evolutionary path leading to the present organization of the Atlantic salmon

  7. Genomic organization and evolution of the Atlantic salmon hemoglobin repertoire

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Background The genomes of salmonids are considered pseudo-tetraploid undergoing reversion to a stable diploid state. Given the genome duplication and extensive biological data available for salmonids, they are excellent model organisms for studying comparative genomics, evolutionary processes, fates of duplicated genes and the genetic and physiological processes associated with complex behavioral phenotypes. The evolution of the tetrapod hemoglobin genes is well studied; however, little is known about the genomic organization and evolution of teleost hemoglobin genes, particularly those of salmonids. The Atlantic salmon serves as a representative salmonid species for genomics studies. Given the well documented role of hemoglobin in adaptation to varied environmental conditions as well as its use as a model protein for evolutionary analyses, an understanding of the genomic structure and organization of the Atlantic salmon α and β hemoglobin genes is of great interest. Results We identified four bacterial artificial chromosomes (BACs) comprising two hemoglobin gene clusters spanning the entire α and β hemoglobin gene repertoire of the Atlantic salmon genome. Their chromosomal locations were established using fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) analysis and linkage mapping, demonstrating that the two clusters are located on separate chromosomes. The BACs were sequenced and assembled into scaffolds, which were annotated for putatively functional and pseudogenized hemoglobin-like genes. This revealed that the tail-to-tail organization and alternating pattern of the α and β hemoglobin genes are well conserved in both clusters, as well as that the Atlantic salmon genome houses substantially more hemoglobin genes, including non-Bohr β globin genes, than the genomes of other teleosts that have been sequenced. Conclusions We suggest that the most parsimonious evolutionary path leading to the present organization of the Atlantic salmon hemoglobin genes involves

  8. The behaviour of 129I released from nuclear fuel reprocessing factories in the North Atlantic Ocean and transport to the Arctic assessed from numerical modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villa, M.; López-Gutiérrez, J.M.; Suh, Kyung-Suk; Min, Byung-Il; Periáñez, R.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Dispersion of 129 I released from nuclear facilities evaluated by numerical modelling in the Atlantic. • Model validated through comparisons with field measurements. • 5.1 and 16.6 TBq of 129 I have been introduced in the Arctic from Sellafield and La Hague. • The distribution of 129 I among several shelf seas and regions has been evaluated. • Mean ages of tracers obtained: about 3.5 year larger for Sellafield than for La Hague releases. - Abstract: A quantitative evaluation of the fate of 129 I, released from the European reprocessing plants of Sellafield (UK) and La Hague (France), has been made by means of a Lagrangian dispersion model. Transport of radionuclides to the Arctic Ocean has been determined. Thus, 5.1 and 16.6 TBq of 129 I have been introduced in the Arctic from Sellafield and La Hague respectively from 1966 to 2012. These figures represent, respectively, 48% and 55% of the cumulative discharge to that time. Inventories in the North Atlantic, including shelf seas, are 4.4 and 13.8 TBq coming from Sellafield and La Hague respectively. These figures are significantly different from previous estimations based on field data. The distribution of these inventories among several shelf seas and regions has been evaluated as well. Mean ages of tracers have been finally obtained, making use of the age-averaging hypothesis. It has been found that mean ages for Sellafield releases are about 3.5 year larger than for La Hague releases

  9. (Environmental and geophysical modeling, fracture mechanics, and boundary element methods)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gray, L.J.

    1990-11-09

    Technical discussions at the various sites visited centered on application of boundary integral methods for environmental modeling, seismic analysis, and computational fracture mechanics in composite and smart'' materials. The traveler also attended the International Association for Boundary Element Methods Conference at Rome, Italy. While many aspects of boundary element theory and applications were discussed in the papers, the dominant topic was the analysis and application of hypersingular equations. This has been the focus of recent work by the author, and thus the conference was highly relevant to research at ORNL.

  10. Comprehensive probabilistic modelling of environmental emissions of engineered nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Tian Yin; Gottschalk, Fadri; Hungerbühler, Konrad; Nowack, Bernd

    2014-02-01

    Concerns about the environmental risks of engineered nanomaterials (ENM) are growing, however, currently very little is known about their concentrations in the environment. Here, we calculate the concentrations of five ENM (nano-TiO2, nano-ZnO, nano-Ag, CNT and fullerenes) in environmental and technical compartments using probabilistic material-flow modelling. We apply the newest data on ENM production volumes, their allocation to and subsequent release from different product categories, and their flows into and within those compartments. Further, we compare newly predicted ENM concentrations to estimates from 2009 and to corresponding measured concentrations of their conventional materials, e.g. TiO2, Zn and Ag. We show that the production volume and the compounds' inertness are crucial factors determining final concentrations. ENM production estimates are generally higher than a few years ago. In most cases, the environmental concentrations of corresponding conventional materials are between one and seven orders of magnitude higher than those for ENM. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Sorption models and their application in environmental samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamel, Nariman H.M.

    2008-01-01

    Full text: Naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM) were found in some environmental soils not high enough to pose problems for human health. The health may be affected by increasing of NORM at some environmental soils. Four soil samples obtained from certain coastal regions in Egypt. Naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM) of the uranium ( 238 U) series, thorium ( 232 Th) series and the radioactive isotope of potassium ( 40 K) were measured. The soil samples were selected from the situations where the radionuclide concentrations are significantly higher than the average level of other sites. It were chemically analyzed for the uranium, silicon aluminum and iron. The cation exchange capacity (CEC) were determined, it was found lower in the presence of Fe-silicates suggested that Fe-hydroxide had precipitin at the exchangeable edge sites of the clay minerals. The pH of the solid particles at which the net total surface charge is zero was known as the point of zero charge (PZC). The PZC is very important in determining the affinity of the soil samples for different cations and anions. The aim of this work is to determine the natural radiological hazardous of radionuclide at four environmental coastal soil samples in Egypt. The point of zero surface charge was determined using titration tests. Sorption model was developed for this purpose. (author)

  12. Simplified risk model support for environmental management integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eide, S.A.; Jones, J.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1998-01-01

    This paper summarizes the process and results of human health risk assessments of the US Department of Energy (DOE) complex-wide programs for high-level waste, transuranic waste, low-level, mixed low-level waste, and spent nuclear fuel. The DOE baseline programs and alternatives for these five material types were characterized by disposition maps (material flow diagrams) and supporting information in the May 1997 report 'A Contractor Report to the Department of Energy on Environmental Baseline Programs and Integration Opportunities' (Discussion Draft). Risk analyses were performed using the Simplified Risk Model (SRM), developed to support DOE Environmental Management Integration studies. The SRM risk analyses consistently and comprehensively cover the life cycle programs for the five material types, from initial storage through final disposition. Risk results are presented at several levels: DOE complex-wide, material type program, individual DOE sites, and DOE site activities. The detailed risk results are documented in the February 1998 report 'Human Health Risk Comparisons for Environmental Management Baseline Programs and Integration Opportunities' (Discussion Draft)

  13. The impact of Southern Atlantic moisture source in the precipitation regime of Sahel and Brazilian Nordeste using lagrangian models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drumond, A.; Nieto, R.; Gimeno, L.; Ambrizzi, T.; Trigo, R.

    2009-04-01

    The socio-economical problems related to the severe droughts observed over Brazilian "Nordeste" and Sahel are well known nowadays. Several studies have showed that the precipitation regimes over these regions are influenced by the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) variability, which can be related with the climatic variations observed in the South and North Tropical Atlantic basins. However, a climatological detailed assessment of the annual cycle of the oceanic moisture contribution to both these regions is still needed in order to get a better understanding of their precipitation regimes and variability. To answer this question, a climatological seasonal analysis of the moisture supply from the South Atlantic to the precipitation in the "Nordeste" and Sahel was performed using a new Lagrangian method of diagnosis which identifies the humidity contributions to the moisture budget over a region. The applied methodology computes budgets of evaporation minus precipitation by calculating changes in the specific humidity along forward-trajectories for the following 10 days. In order to take into account distinct regional contributions we have divided the South Atlantic basin in several latitudinal bands (with a 5° width), and all air-masses residing over each region were tracked forward using the available 5-year dataset (2000-2004). For the Sahel, the preliminary results suggest that the oceanic band northwards 10 degrees south acts as a moisture source for the precipitation along the year and its contribution reaches the maximum during the austral winter, probably related to the ITCZ annual migration over the region. On the other hand, the precipitation over "Nordeste" can be better related to air masses emanating from the oceanic bands between 10 and 20 degrees south. However the response over the region is very heterogeneous spatially and temporally probably due to the high variability of the local climate characteristics. In order to clarify dynamically the

  14. Improved data for integrated modeling of global environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2011-12-01

    The assessment of global environmental changes, their impact on human societies, and possible management options requires large-scale, integrated modeling efforts. These models have to link biophysical with socio-economic processes, and they have to take spatial heterogeneity of environmental conditions into account. Land use change and freshwater use are two key research areas where spatial aggregation and the use of regional average numbers may lead to biased results. Useful insights can only be obtained if processes like economic globalization can be consistently linked to local environmental conditions and resource constraints (Lambin and Meyfroidt 2011). Spatially explicit modeling of environmental changes at the global scale has a long tradition in the natural sciences (Woodward et al 1995, Alcamo et al 1996, Leemans et al 1996). Socio-economic models with comparable spatial detail, e.g. on grid-based land use change, are much less common (Heistermann et al 2006), but are increasingly being developed (Popp et al 2011, Schneider et al 2011). Spatially explicit models require spatially explicit input data, which often constrains their development and application at the global scale. The amount and quality of available data on environmental conditions is growing fast—primarily due to improved earth observation methods. Moreover, systematic efforts for collecting and linking these data across sectors are on the way (www.earthobservations.org). This has, among others, also helped to provide consistent databases on different land cover and land use types (Erb et al 2007). However, spatially explicit data on specific anthropogenic driving forces of global environmental change are still scarce—also because these cannot be collected with satellites or other devices. The basic data on socio-economic driving forces, i.e. population density and wealth (measured as gross domestic product per capita), have been prepared for spatially explicit analyses (CIESIN, IFPRI

  15. Recent validation studies for two NRPB environmental transfer models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, J.; Simmonds, J.R.

    1991-01-01

    The National Radiological Protection Board (NRPB) developed a dynamic model for the transfer of radionuclides through terrestrial food chains some years ago. This model, now called FARMLAND, predicts both instantaneous and time integrals of concentration of radionuclides in a variety of foods. The model can be used to assess the consequences of both accidental and routine releases of radioactivity to the environment; and results can be obtained as a function of time. A number of validation studies have been carried out on FARMLAND. In these the model predictions have been compared with a variety of sets of environmental measurement data. Some of these studies will be outlined in the paper. A model to predict external radiation exposure from radioactivity deposited on different surfaces in the environment has also been developed at NRPB. This model, called EXPURT (EXPosure from Urban Radionuclide Transfer), can be used to predict radiation doses as a function of time following deposition in a variety of environments, ranging from rural to inner-city areas. This paper outlines validation studies and future extensions to be carried out on EXPURT. (12 refs., 4 figs.)

  16. Evaluation of Extratropical Cyclone Precipitation in the North Atlantic Basin: An analysis of ERA-Interim, WRF, and two CMIP5 models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, James F; Naud, Catherine M; Willison, Jeff

    2018-03-01

    The representation of extratropical cyclones (ETCs) precipitation in general circulation models (GCMs) and a weather research and forecasting (WRF) model is analyzed. This work considers the link between ETC precipitation and dynamical strength and tests if parameterized convection affects this link for ETCs in the North Atlantic Basin. Lagrangian cyclone tracks of ETCs in ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERAI), the GISS and GFDL CMIP5 models, and WRF with two horizontal resolutions are utilized in a compositing analysis. The 20-km resolution WRF model generates stronger ETCs based on surface wind speed and cyclone precipitation. The GCMs and ERAI generate similar composite means and distributions for cyclone precipitation rates, but GCMs generate weaker cyclone surface winds than ERAI. The amount of cyclone precipitation generated by the convection scheme differs significantly across the datasets, with GISS generating the most, followed by ERAI and then GFDL. The models and reanalysis generate relatively more parameterized convective precipitation when the total cyclone-averaged precipitation is smaller. This is partially due to the contribution of parameterized convective precipitation occurring more often late in the ETC life cycle. For reanalysis and models, precipitation increases with both cyclone moisture and surface wind speed, and this is true if the contribution from the parameterized convection scheme is larger or not. This work shows that these different models generate similar total ETC precipitation despite large differences in the parameterized convection, and these differences do not cause unexpected behavior in ETC precipitation sensitivity to cyclone moisture or surface wind speed.

  17. Mata Atlântica, paleoterritórios e história ambiental Brazilian atlantic coastal forest, paleoterritories, and environmental history

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rogério Ribeiro de Oliveira

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Este artigo trata da Mata Atlântica e das interferências antrópicas que este bioma sofreu no tempo, tendo por objetivo incluir o legado da atividade humana como parte das suas condições ecológicas. Como forma de análise dos processos sucessionais, é proposto o resgate dos paleoterritórios, aqui entendidos como as resultantes ecológicas decorrentes do uso dos ecossistemas por populações passadas na busca de suas condições de existência.This article deals with the Atlantic Rainforest and the anthropic interferences imposed on this biome throughout time. Its goal is to include the legacy of human activity as part of the explanation for its ecological state. As a way to analyze the sucessional processes, the concept of paleo-territory recovery is proposed in order to understand the ecological resultants due to the use of the ecosystems by traditional populations for means of existence.

  18. Influence of Atlantic SST anomalies on the atmospheric circulation in the Atlantic-European sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Kestenare

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies of observational data suggest that Sea Surface Temperature (SST anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean have a significant influence on the atmospheric circulation in the Atlantic-European sector in early winter and in spring. After reviewing this work and showing that the spring signal is part of a global air-sea interaction, we analyze for comparison an ensemble of simulations with the ECHAM4 atmospheric general circulation model in T42 resolution forced by the observed distribution of SST and sea ice, and a simulation with the ECHAM4/OPA8 coupled model in T30 resolution. In the two cases, a significant influence of the Atlantic on the atmosphere is detected in the Atlantic-European sector. In the forced mode, ECHAM4 responds to SST anomalies from early spring to late summer, and also in early winter. The forcing involves SST anomalies not only in the tropical Atlantic, but also in the whole tropical band, suggesting a strong ENSO influence. The modeled signal resembles that seen in the observations in spring, but not in early winter. In the coupled mode, the Atlantic SST only has a significant influence on the atmosphere in summer. Although the SST anomaly is confined to the Atlantic, the summer signal shows some similarity with that seen in the forced simulations. However, there is no counterpart in the observations.

  19. Linking benthic hydrodynamics and cold-water coral occurrences: A high-resolution model study at three cold-water coral provinces in the NE Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohn, Christian; Rengstorf, Anna; White, Martin; Duineveld, Gerard; Mienis, Furu; Soetaert, Karline; Grehan, Anthony

    2014-03-01

    Observations from numerous cold-water coral locations in the NE Atlantic show energetic near-bottom flow dynamics along the European continental margin at individual coral mounds and mound clusters. Dynamics are largely controlled by tide-topography interaction generating and enhancing periodic motions such as trapped waves, freely propagating internal tides and internal hydraulic jumps. In this study, linkages between key abiotic parameters and cold water coral occurrences are explored across entire cold-water coral mound provinces using an integrated modelling and observational approach. The 3-D ocean circulation model ROMS-AGRIF was applied to simulate near-bottom hydrodynamic conditions at three provinces in the NE Atlantic (Logachev mounds, Arc mounds and Belgica mounds) adopting a nested model setup with a central grid resolution of 250 m. Simulations were carried out with a focus on accurate high-resolution topography and tidal forcing. The central model bathymetry was taken from high-resolution INSS (Irish National Seabed Survey) seafloor mapping data. The model was integrated over a full one-year reference period starting from the 1st January 2010. Interannual variability was not considered. Tidal forcing was obtained from a global solution of the Oregon State University (OSU) inverse tidal model. Modelled fields of benthic currents were validated against available independent in situ observations. Coral assemblage patterns (presence and absence locations) were obtained from benthic surveys of the EU FP7 CoralFISH programme and supplemented by data from additional field surveys. Modelled near-bottom currents, temperature and salinity were analysed for a 1-month subset (15th April to 15th May 2010) corresponding to the main CoralFISH survey period. The model results show intensified near-bottom currents in areas where living corals are observed by contrast with coral absence and random background locations. Instantaneous and time-mean current speeds at

  20. Modelling and forecasting long-term dynamics of Western Baltic macrobenthic fauna in relation to climate signals and environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gröger, Joachim; Rumohr, Heye

    2006-05-01

    Long-term macrobenthos data from Kiel Bight in the Western Baltic collected between 1968 and 2000 have been correlated with the winter NAO index (North Atlantic Oscillation Index) and other environmental data such as temperature, salinity and oxygen content in the bottom water in order to detect systematic patterns related to so far unexplained abiotic signals in the dynamics of zoobenthic species assemblages. The benthos data come from a cluster of five stations (Süderfahrt/ Millionenviertel) in Kiel Bay. Our investigations concentrated on the macrobenthic dynamics with a focus on the number of species m - 2 (species richness). Using logarithms and the time series analysis approach of Box/Jenkins (ARIMA modelling, transfer function modelling) it was shown that species richness was strongly influenced by the winter NAO (adjusted for a linear time trend within the 1968-2000 period) and salinity (with a shift/lag of four years). Bootstrapping experiments (i.e. sampling from the error process) and analysis of prediction power (by means of the one- or more-years leaving-out method) showed that the parameter estimates behaved in a stable way, leading to a relatively robust model.

  1. Measuring and modeling exposure from environmental radiation on tidal flats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gould, T.J.; Hess, C.T.

    2005-01-01

    To examine the shielding effects of the tide cycle, a high pressure ion chamber was used to measure the exposure rate from environmental radiation on tidal flats. A theoretical model is derived to predict the behavior of exposure rate as a function of time for a detector placed one meter above ground on a tidal flat. The numerical integration involved in this derivation results in an empirical formula which implies exposure rate ∝tan-1(sint). We propose that calculating the total exposure incurred on a tidal flat requires measurements of only the slope of the tidal flat and the exposure rate when no shielding occurs. Experimental results are consistent with the model

  2. System Identification, Environmental Modelling, and Control System Design

    CERN Document Server

    Garnier, Hugues

    2012-01-01

    System Identification, Environmetric Modelling, and Control Systems Design is dedicated to Professor Peter Young on the occasion of his seventieth birthday. Professor Young has been a pioneer in systems and control, and over the past 45 years he has influenced many developments in this field. This volume is comprised of a collection of contributions by leading experts in system identification, time-series analysis, environmetric modelling and control system design – modern research in topics that reflect important areas of interest in Professor Young’s research career. Recent theoretical developments in and relevant applications of these areas are explored treating the various subjects broadly and in depth. The authoritative and up-to-date research presented here will be of interest to academic researcher in control and disciplines related to environmental research, particularly those to with water systems. The tutorial style in which many of the contributions are composed also makes the book suitable as ...

  3. Non-Markovianity in the collision model with environmental block

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Jiasen; Yu, Chang-shui

    2018-05-01

    We present an extended collision model to simulate the dynamics of an open quantum system. In our model, the unit to represent the environment is, instead of a single particle, a block which consists of a number of environment particles. The introduced blocks enable us to study the effects of different strategies of system–environment interactions and states of the blocks on the non-Markovianities. We demonstrate our idea in the Gaussian channels of an all-optical system and derive a necessary and sufficient condition of non-Markovianity for such channels. Moreover, we show the equivalence of our criterion to the non-Markovian quantum jump in the simulation of the pure damping process of a single-mode field. We also show that the non-Markovianity of the channel working in the strategy that the system collides with environmental particles in each block in a certain order will be affected by the size of the block and the embedded entanglement and the effects of heating and squeezing the vacuum environmental state will quantitatively enhance the non-Markovianity.

  4. Modeling environmental noise exceedances using non-homogeneous Poisson processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guarnaccia, Claudio; Quartieri, Joseph; Barrios, Juan M; Rodrigues, Eliane R

    2014-10-01

    In this work a non-homogeneous Poisson model is considered to study noise exposure. The Poisson process, counting the number of times that a sound level surpasses a threshold, is used to estimate the probability that a population is exposed to high levels of noise a certain number of times in a given time interval. The rate function of the Poisson process is assumed to be of a Weibull type. The presented model is applied to community noise data from Messina, Sicily (Italy). Four sets of data are used to estimate the parameters involved in the model. After the estimation and tuning are made, a way of estimating the probability that an environmental noise threshold is exceeded a certain number of times in a given time interval is presented. This estimation can be very useful in the study of noise exposure of a population and also to predict, given the current behavior of the data, the probability of occurrence of high levels of noise in the near future. One of the most important features of the model is that it implicitly takes into account different noise sources, which need to be treated separately when using usual models.

  5. Model output for deep-sea coral habitat suitability in the U.S. North and Mid-Atlantic from 2013 (NCEI Accession 0145923)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset was created for potential use as an environmental predictor in spatial predictive models of deep-sea coral habitat suitability. Deep-sea corals are of...

  6. Analyzing interaction of electricity markets and environmental policies using equilibrium models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yihsu

    Around the world, the electric sector is evolving from a system of regulated vertically-integrated monopolies to a complex system of competing generation companies, unregulated traders, and regulated transmission and distribution. One emerging challenge faced by environmental policymakers and electricity industry is the interaction between electricity markets and environmental policies. The objective of this dissertation is to examine these interactions using large-scale computational models of electricity markets based on noncooperative game theory. In particular, this dissertation is comprised of four essays. The first essay studies the interaction of the United States Environmental Protection Agency NOx Budget Program and the mid-Atlantic electricity market. This research quantifies emissions, economic inefficiencies, price distortions, and overall social welfare under various market assumptions using engineering-economic models. The models calculate equilibria for imperfectly competitive markets---Cournot oligopoly---considering the actual landscape of power plants and transmission lines, and including the possibility of market power in the NOx allowances market. The second essay extends the results from first essay and models imperfectly competitive markets using a Stackelberg or leader-follower formulation. A leader in the power and NO x markets is assumed to have perfect foresight of its rivals' responses. The rivals' best response functions are explicitly embedded in the leader's constraints. The solutions quantify the extent to which a leader in the markets can extract economic rents on the expense of its followers. The third essay investigates the effect of implementing the European Union (EU) CO2 Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) on wholesale power prices in the Western European electricity market. This research uses theoretical and computational modeling approaches to quantify the degree to which CO2 costs were passed on to power prices, and quantifies the

  7. Complex Environmental Data Modelling Using Adaptive General Regression Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanevski, Mikhail

    2015-04-01

    The research deals with an adaptation and application of Adaptive General Regression Neural Networks (GRNN) to high dimensional environmental data. GRNN [1,2,3] are efficient modelling tools both for spatial and temporal data and are based on nonparametric kernel methods closely related to classical Nadaraya-Watson estimator. Adaptive GRNN, using anisotropic kernels, can be also applied for features selection tasks when working with high dimensional data [1,3]. In the present research Adaptive GRNN are used to study geospatial data predictability and relevant feature selection using both simulated and real data case studies. The original raw data were either three dimensional monthly precipitation data or monthly wind speeds embedded into 13 dimensional space constructed by geographical coordinates and geo-features calculated from digital elevation model. GRNN were applied in two different ways: 1) adaptive GRNN with the resulting list of features ordered according to their relevancy; and 2) adaptive GRNN applied to evaluate all possible models N [in case of wind fields N=(2^13 -1)=8191] and rank them according to the cross-validation error. In both cases training were carried out applying leave-one-out procedure. An important result of the study is that the set of the most relevant features depends on the month (strong seasonal effect) and year. The predictabilities of precipitation and wind field patterns, estimated using the cross-validation and testing errors of raw and shuffled data, were studied in detail. The results of both approaches were qualitatively and quantitatively compared. In conclusion, Adaptive GRNN with their ability to select features and efficient modelling of complex high dimensional data can be widely used in automatic/on-line mapping and as an integrated part of environmental decision support systems. 1. Kanevski M., Pozdnoukhov A., Timonin V. Machine Learning for Spatial Environmental Data. Theory, applications and software. EPFL Press

  8. Finding Positive Feedback Loops in Environmental Models: A Mathematical Investigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheikholeslami, R.; Razavi, S.

    2016-12-01

    Dynamics of most earth and environmental systems are generally governed by interactions between several hydrological (e.g., soil moisture and precipitation), geological (e.g., and erosion), geochemical (e.g., nutrient loading), and atmospheric (e.g., temperature) processes which operate on a range of spatio-temporal scales. These interactions create numerous feedback mechanisms with complex behaviours, and their understanding and representation can vary depending on the scale in space and/or time at which the system is analyzed. One of the most crucial characteristics of such complex systems is the existence of positive feedback loops. The presence of positive feedbacks may increase complexity, accelerate change, or trigger multiple stable states in the underlying dynamical system. Furthermore, because of the inherent non-linearity, it is often very difficult to obtain a general idea of their complex dynamics. Feedback loops in environmental systems have been well recognized and qualitatively discussed. With a quantitative/mathematical view, in this presentation, we address the question of how the positive feedback loops can be identified/implemented in environmental models. We investigate the nature of different feedback mechanisms and dynamics of simple example case studies that underlie fundamental processes such as vegetation, precipitation and soil moisture. To do this, we apply the concept of "interaction graph" from mathematics which is built from the Jacobian matrix of the dynamical system. The Jacobian matrix contains information on how variations of one state variable depends on variations of other variables, and thus can be used to understand the dynamical possibilities of feedback mechanisms in the underlying system. Moreover, this study highlights that there are some situations where the existence of positive feedback loops can cause multiple stable states, and thereby regime shifts in environmental systems. Systems with multiple stable states are

  9. Environmental impact assessment of decommissioning treatment about radioactive model plant waste ore storage site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bei Xinyu

    2012-01-01

    Aiming at decommissioning treatment project of radioactive model plant waste ore storage site, based on the detailed investigations of source terms and project description, systematic environmental impacts have been identified. The environmental impacts both during decommissioning treatment, radioactive waste transportation and after treatment are assessed. Some specific environmental protection measures are proposed so as to minimize the adverse environmental impacts. (author)

  10. 15. Experts' meeting on monitoring environmental radioactivity. Data - models - information. Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-01-01

    The proceedings of the 15. Experts' meeting on monitoring environmental radioactivity include contributions o the following topics: environmental monitoring in Germany; developments in emergency protection and environmental monitoring; implementation of model and information systems; measuring programs during events and exercises; public information during local and global events; fast and (new) analytical methods; measures of the quality management systems; European and international environmental monitoring harmonization.

  11. Development of Laboratory Model Ecosystems as Early Warning Elements of Environmental Pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    1974-12-01

    AD-AOll 851 DEVELOPMENT OF LABORATORY MODEL ECOSYSTEMS AS EARLY WARNING ELEMENTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION Robert L. Metcalf... ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION Robert L. Metcalf, Ph. D. University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Illinois INTRODUCTION Problems of environmental pollution with...house dust is unsafe to breathe (Ewing and Pearson, 1974). Most of the source of our concern about environmental pollution by trace substances relates

  12. Environmental drivers of temporal succession in recent dinoflagellate cyst assemblages from a coastal site in the North-East Atlantic (Lisbon Bay, Portugal)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ribeiro, Sofia; Amorim, Ana

    2008-01-01

    allowed the identification of water stability as the main environmental gradient influencing the community composition, with river runoff in the preceding rain season and upwelling being the two drivers of stratification and turbulence, respectively. Both these processes can be described as nutrient......Temporal changes in the community structure of recent dinoflagellate cyst assemblages of Lisbon Bay (Iberian upwelling system) were investigated between 2000 and 2005. The assemblages were diverse and characterized by high inter-annual variability, rather than a clear seasonal pattern. In order...... to identify the main environmental drivers of community changes, several regional (river runoff, rainfall, upwelling, radiation, daylength) and in situ (sea surface temperature, salinity, bottom and surface chlorophyll a concentration) environmental parameters were tested. Multivariate statistical analysis...

  13. BALANCED SCORECARDS EVALUATION MODEL THAT INCLUDES ELEMENTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT SYSTEM USING AHP MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelena Jovanović

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available The research is oriented on improvement of environmental management system (EMS using BSC (Balanced Scorecard model that presents strategic model of measurem ents and improvement of organisational performance. The research will present approach of objectives and environmental management me trics involvement (proposed by literature review in conventional BSC in "Ad Barska plovi dba" organisation. Further we will test creation of ECO-BSC model based on business activities of non-profit organisations in order to improve envir onmental management system in parallel with other systems of management. Using this approach we may obtain 4 models of BSC that includ es elements of environmen tal management system for AD "Barska plovidba". Taking into acc ount that implementation and evaluation need long period of time in AD "Barska plovidba", the final choice will be based on 14598 (Information technology - Software product evaluation and ISO 9126 (Software engineering - Product quality using AHP method. Those standards are usually used for evaluation of quality software product and computer programs that serve in organisation as support and factors for development. So, AHP model will be bas ed on evolution criteria based on suggestion of ISO 9126 standards and types of evaluation from two evaluation teams. Members of team & will be experts in BSC and environmental management system that are not em ployed in AD "Barska Plovidba" organisation. The members of team 2 will be managers of AD "Barska Plovidba" organisation (including manage rs from environmental department. Merging results based on previously cr eated two AHP models, one can obtain the most appropriate BSC that includes elements of environmental management system. The chosen model will present at the same time suggestion for approach choice including ecological metrics in conventional BSC model for firm that has at least one ECO strategic orientation.

  14. Global Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Models: Convergence, Robustness and Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarrazin, Fanny; Pianosi, Francesca; Khorashadi Zadeh, Farkhondeh; Van Griensven, Ann; Wagener, Thorsten

    2015-04-01

    Global Sensitivity Analysis aims to characterize the impact that variations in model input factors (e.g. the parameters) have on the model output (e.g. simulated streamflow). In sampling-based Global Sensitivity Analysis, the sample size has to be chosen carefully in order to obtain reliable sensitivity estimates while spending computational resources efficiently. Furthermore, insensitive parameters are typically identified through the definition of a screening threshold: the theoretical value of their sensitivity index is zero but in a sampling-base framework they regularly take non-zero values. There is little guidance available for these two steps in environmental modelling though. The objective of the present study is to support modellers in making appropriate choices, regarding both sample size and screening threshold, so that a robust sensitivity analysis can be implemented. We performed sensitivity analysis for the parameters of three hydrological models with increasing level of complexity (Hymod, HBV and SWAT), and tested three widely used sensitivity analysis methods (Elementary Effect Test or method of Morris, Regional Sensitivity Analysis, and Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis). We defined criteria based on a bootstrap approach to assess three different types of convergence: the convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices, of the ranking (the ordering among the parameters) and of the screening (the identification of the insensitive parameters). We investigated the screening threshold through the definition of a validation procedure. The results showed that full convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices is not necessarily needed to rank or to screen the model input factors. Furthermore, typical values of the sample sizes that are reported in the literature can be well below the sample sizes that actually ensure convergence of ranking and screening.

  15. Numerical Modeling of Hydrokinetic Turbines and their Environmental Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javaherchi, T.; Seydel, J.; Aliseda, A.

    2010-12-01

    The search for predictable renewable energy has led research into marine hydrokinetic energy. Electricity can be generated from tidally-induced currents through turbines located in regions of high current speed and relatively low secondary flow intensity. Although significant technological challenges exist, the main obstacle in the development and commercial deployment of marine hydrokinetic (MHK) turbines is the uncertainty in the environmental effect of devices. The velocity deficit in the turbulent wake of the turbine might enhance the sedimentation process of suspended particles in the water column and lead to deposition into artificial patterns that alter the benthic ecosystem. Pressure fluctuations across turbine blades and in blade tip vortices can damage internal organs of marine species as they swim through the device. These are just a few examples of the important potential environmental effects of MHK turbines that need to be addressed and investigated a priori before pilot and large scale deployment. We have developed a hierarchy of numerical models to simulate the turbulent wake behind a well characterized two bladed turbine. The results from these models (Sliding Mesh, Rotating Reference Frame, Virtual Blade Model and Actuator Disk Model) have been validated and are been used to investigate the efficiency and physical changes introduced in the environment by single or multiple MHK turbines. We will present results from sedimenting particles and model juvenile fish, with relative densities of 1.2 and 0.95, respectively. The settling velocity and terminal location on the bottom of the tidal channel is computed and compared to the simulated flow in a channel without turbines. We have observed an enhanced sedimentation, and we will quantify the degree of enhancement and the parameter range within which it is significant. For the slightly buoyant particles representing fish, the pressure history is studied statistically with particular attention to the

  16. Environmental Impacts of Large Scale Biochar Application Through Spatial Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, I.; Archontoulis, S.

    2017-12-01

    In an effort to study the environmental (emissions, soil quality) and production (yield) impacts of biochar application at regional scales we coupled the APSIM-Biochar model with the pSIMS parallel platform. So far the majority of biochar research has been concentrated on lab to field studies to advance scientific knowledge. Regional scale assessments are highly needed to assist decision making. The overall objective of this simulation study was to identify areas in the USA that have the most gain environmentally from biochar's application, as well as areas which our model predicts a notable yield increase due to the addition of biochar. We present the modifications in both APSIM biochar and pSIMS components that were necessary to facilitate these large scale model runs across several regions in the United States at a resolution of 5 arcminutes. This study uses the AgMERRA global climate data set (1980-2010) and the Global Soil Dataset for Earth Systems modeling as a basis for creating its simulations, as well as local management operations for maize and soybean cropping systems and different biochar application rates. The regional scale simulation analysis is in progress. Preliminary results showed that the model predicts that high quality soils (particularly those common to Iowa cropping systems) do not receive much, if any, production benefit from biochar. However, soils with low soil organic matter ( 0.5%) do get a noteworthy yield increase of around 5-10% in the best cases. We also found N2O emissions to be spatial and temporal specific; increase in some areas and decrease in some other areas due to biochar application. In contrast, we found increases in soil organic carbon and plant available water in all soils (top 30 cm) due to biochar application. The magnitude of these increases (% change from the control) were larger in soil with low organic matter (below 1.5%) and smaller in soils with high organic matter (above 3%) and also dependent on biochar

  17. A Relational Database Model and Tools for Environmental Sound Recognition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuksel Arslan

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Environmental sound recognition (ESR has become a hot topic in recent years. ESR is mainly based on machine learning (ML and ML algorithms require first a training database. This database must comprise the sounds to be recognized and other related sounds. An ESR system needs the database during training, testing and in the production stage. In this paper, we present the design and pilot establishment of a database which will assists all researchers who want to establish an ESR system. This database employs relational database model which is not used for this task before. We explain in this paper design and implementation details of the database, data collection and load process. Besides we explain the tools and developed graphical user interface for a desktop application and for the WEB.

  18. Thermal Environmental Testing of NSTAR Engineering Model Ion Thrusters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rawlin, Vincent K.; Patterson, Michael J.; Becker, Raymond A.

    1999-01-01

    NASA's New Millenium program will fly a xenon ion propulsion system on the Deep Space 1 Mission. Tests were conducted under NASA's Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Applications Readiness (NSTAR) Program with 3 different engineering model ion thrusters to determine thruster thermal characteristics over the NSTAR operating range in a variety of thermal environments. A liquid nitrogen-cooled shroud was used to cold-soak the thruster to -120 C. Initial tests were performed prior to a mature spacecraft design. Those results and the final, severe, requirements mandated by the spacecraft led to several changes to the basic thermal design. These changes were incorporated into a final design and tested over a wide range of environmental conditions.

  19. Environmental versus demographic variability in stochastic predator–prey models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dobramysl, U; Täuber, U C

    2013-01-01

    In contrast to the neutral population cycles of the deterministic mean-field Lotka–Volterra rate equations, including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator–prey interactions yields complex spatio-temporal structures associated with long-lived erratic population oscillations. Environmental variability in the form of quenched spatial randomness in the predation rates results in more localized activity patches. Our previous study showed that population fluctuations in rare favorable regions in turn cause a remarkable increase in the asymptotic densities of both predators and prey. Very intriguing features are found when variable interaction rates are affixed to individual particles rather than lattice sites. Stochastic dynamics with demographic variability in conjunction with inheritable predation efficiencies generate non-trivial time evolution for the predation rate distributions, yet with overall essentially neutral optimization. (paper)

  20. Computer model for estimating electric utility environmental noise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teplitzky, A.M.; Hahn, K.J.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on a computer code for estimating environmental noise emissions from the operation and the construction of electric power plants that was developed based on algorithms. The computer code (Model) is used to predict octave band sound power levels for power plant operation and construction activities on the basis of the equipment operating characteristics and calculates off-site sound levels for each noise source and for an entire plant. Estimated noise levels are presented either as A-weighted sound level contours around the power plant or as octave band levels at user defined receptor locations. Calculated sound levels can be compared with user designated noise criteria, and the program can assist the user in analyzing alternative noise control strategies

  1. PESTEL Model Analysis and Legal Guarantee of Tourism Environmental Protection in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhiyong, Xian

    2017-08-01

    On the basis of summarizing the general situation of tourism environmental protection in China, this paper analyses the macro factors of tourism environmental protection by using PESTEL model. On this basis, this paper explores the improvement paths of tourism environmental protection based on PESTEL model. Finally, it puts forward the legal guarantee suggestion of tourism environment protection.

  2. Environmental fate of rice paddy pesticides in a model ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomizawa, C; Kazano, H

    1979-01-01

    The distribution and metabolic fate of several rice paddy pesticides were evaluated in a modified model ecosystem. Among the three BHC isomers, beta-isomer was the most stable and bioconcentrated in all of the organisms. Alpha- and gamma-isomers were moderately persistent and degraded to some extent during the 33 day period. Disulfoton was relatively persistent due to the transformation to its oxidation products. Pyridaphenthion was fairly biodegradable. N-Phenyl maleic hydrazide derived from the hydrolysis of pyridaphenthion was not detected in the organisms though it was found in the aquarium water after 33 days. Cartap and edifenphos were considerably biodegradable, and the ratio of the conversion to water soluble metabolites was very high. There was a distinct difference in the persistence of Kitazin P and edifenphos in the aquarium water. It appeared that the hydrolysis rate of the pesticides affected their fate in the organisms. PCP appeared to be moderately biodegradable. CNP was considerably stable and stored in the organisms though the concentration in the aquarium water was relatively low. The persistence and distribution of the pesticides in the model ecosystem were dependent on their chemical structures. In spite of the limitation derived from short experimental period, the model ecosystem may be applicable for predicting the environmental fate of pesticides.

  3. An investigation of the physiology and potential role of components of the deep ocean bacterial community (of the NE Atlantic) by enrichments carried out under minimal environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egan, Simon T.; McCarthy, David M.; Patching, John W.; Fleming, Gerard T. A.

    2012-03-01

    Samples of deep-ocean water (3170 m) taken from the Rockall Trough (North-East Atlantic) were incubated for one-month at atmospheric and in-situ pressure (31 MPa), at 4 °C and in the absence and presence of added nutrients. Prokaryotic abundance (direct cell counts) increased by at least 28-fold in enrichments without added nutrients. However, the magnitude of increase in abundance was less for incubations carried out at in-situ pressure (131-181-fold) than those incubations at surface pressure (163-1714-fold increase in abundance). Changes in the prokaryotic community profile as a result of one-month incubation were measured by means of Denaturing Gel Electrophoresis (DGGE) of extracted 16S rDNA. The profiles of post-incubation samples incubated at in-situ pressure were separated from all other profiles as were those of unpressurised samples with added nutrients. The behaviour (fitness) of individual community members (Operational Taxonomic Units: OTUs) was determined on the basis of change in relative DGGE band intensities between pre- and post-incubation samples. Of twenty-one OTUs examined, six were fitter when incubated in the presence of added nutrients and at in-situ pressure and one of these was advantaged when grown in the absence of added nutrients and at in-situ pressure. These represented autochthonous and active members of the deep-ocean prokaryotic community. In contrast, seven OTUs were disadvantaged when grown under in-situ pressure and were indicative surface-derived allochtonous microorganisms. A further two OTUs came to dominance in incubations with added nutrients (pressurised and unpressurised) and similar to the previous category were probably surface-derived microorganisms. A single OTU showed characteristics of piezophilic and oliogrophic behaviour and four OTUs were disadvantaged under all incubation conditions examined. The twenty-one DGGE bands were sequenced and the bacterial communities were dominated by Gamma proteobactria and to a

  4. 78 FR 54644 - 2013 Fall Joint Meeting of the Ozone Transport Commission and the Mid-Atlantic Northeast...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-05

    ... Transport Commission and the Mid-Atlantic Northeast Visibility Union AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency...-Atlantic Northeast Visibility Union (MANE-VU). The meeting agenda will include topics regarding reducing...-level ozone formation, transport, and control within the OTR. The Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Visibility...

  5. Roots & Shoots: A model for active environmental protection ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Madagascar is facing severe environmental problems. One approach to engage possible future stakeholders and to raise awareness for environmental concerns is the Roots & Shoots program. On the following the program and its philosophy are presented.

  6. Using integrated environmental modeling to automate a process-based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, an...

  7. Using Integrated Environmental Modeling to Automate a Process-Based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (presentation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, and...

  8. CARETS: A prototype regional environmental information system. Volume 9: Shore zone land use and land cover; Central Atlantic Regional Ecological Test Site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, R. H. (Principal Investigator); Dolan, R.; Hayden, B. P.; Vincent, C. L.

    1975-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. Analysis of the land use and land cover maps provides a stratification of the CARETS shore area into regions which have a similar environmental organization. Different elements of the landscape are altered less frequently moving inland. Near the beach, higher frequency of monitoring is needed than is needed in the inland areas, including the marsh and estuarine areas.

  9. Innovative Research on Teaching Model of Environmental Law Courses in China

    OpenAIRE

    Yuling Li

    2013-01-01

    At present, the teaching model of environmental law courses in China is mainly lecture-based learning (LBL) teaching model whose disadvantages are closeness, unidirection and weak teaching practice. This model does not fit in with the characteristics of environmental law courses and the objective changes of ecological civilized society for the demand of talents of environmental law. Therefore, we should actively reform the current single teaching model, learn from foreign advanced teaching co...

  10. Agri‐environmental Policies to Meet Consumer Preferences in Japan: An Economic‐Biophysical Model Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tetsuya Uetake

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Promoting environmentally friendly farming products is crucial to meeting consumer demand. Although governments implement policy measures to improve the environmental performance of the agriculture sector, theirimpacts are difficult to assess. This study analyses the performance of agri‐environmental policies in Japan, by using the OECD’s policy impact model and reference level framework. In particular, it identifies the environmental impacts of three simulated agri‐environmental policies based on farms’ characteristics. The results suggest that a policy mix of regulation and an incentive payment would reduce environmental impacts, suggesting that targeted approaches could improve the cost‐effectiveness of agri‐environmental policies.

  11. Comparison of the ocean surface vector winds from atmospheric reanalysis and scatterometer-based wind products over the Nordic Seas and the northern North Atlantic and their application for ocean modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dukhovskoy, Dmitry S.; Bourassa, Mark A.; Petersen, Gudrún Nína; Steffen, John

    2017-03-01

    Ocean surface vector wind fields from reanalysis data sets and scatterometer-derived gridded products are analyzed over the Nordic Seas and the northern North Atlantic for the time period from 2000 to 2009. The data sets include the National Center for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis 2 (NCEPR2), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR), Cross-Calibrated Multiplatform (CCMP) wind product version 1.1 and recently released version 2.0, and QuikSCAT. The goal of the study is to assess discrepancies across the wind vector fields in the data sets and demonstrate possible implications of these differences for ocean modeling. Large-scale and mesoscale characteristics of winds are compared at interannual, seasonal, and synoptic timescales. A cyclone tracking methodology is developed and applied to the wind fields to compare cyclone characteristics in the data sets. Additionally, the winds are evaluated against observations collected from meteorological buoys deployed in the Iceland and Irminger Seas. The agreement among the wind fields is better for longer time and larger spatial scales. The discrepancies are clearly apparent for synoptic timescales and mesoscales. CCMP, ASR, and CFSR show the closest overall agreement with each other. Substantial biases are found in the NCEPR2 winds. Numerical sensitivity experiments are conducted with a coupled ice-ocean model forced by different wind fields. The experiments demonstrate differences in the net surface heat fluxes during storms. In the experiment forced by NCEPR2 winds, there are discrepancies in the large-scale wind-driven ocean dynamics compared to the other experiments.

  12. Integrated flood damage modelling in the Ebro river basin under hydrodynamic, socio-economic and environmental factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foudi, S.; Galarraga, I.; Osés, N.

    2012-04-01

    This paper presents a model of flood damage measurement. It studies the socio-economic and environmental potential damage of floods in the Ebro river basin. We estimate the damage to the urban, rural and environmental sectors. In these sectors, we make distinctions between residential, non residential, cultural, agricultural, public facilities and utilities, environmental and human subsectors. We focus on both the direct, indirect, tangible and intangible impacts. The residential damages refer to the damages on housing, costs of repair and cleaning as direct effects and the re-housing costs as an indirect effect. The non residential and agricultural impacts concern the losses to the economic sectors (industry, business, agricultural): production, capital losses, costs of cleaning and repairs for the direct costs and the consequences of the suspension of activities for the indirect costs. For the human sector, we refer to the physical impacts (injuries and death) in the direct tangible effects and to the posttraumatic stress as indirect intangible impact. The environmental impacts focus on a site of Community Interests (pSCIs) in the case study area. The case study is located the Ebro river basin, Spain. The Ebro river basin is the larger river basin in term of surface and water discharge. The Ebro river system is subject to Atlantic and Mediterranean climatic influences. It gathers most of its water from the north of Spain (in the Pyrenees Mountains) and is the most important river basin of Spain in term of water resources. Most of the flooding occurs during the winter period. Between 1900- 2010, the National Catalogue of Historical Floods identifies 372 events: meanly 33 events every 10 years and up to 58 during the 1990-2000. Natural floods have two origins: (i) persistent rainfalls in large sub basins raised up by high temperature giving rise to a rapid thaw in the Pyrenees, (ii) local rainfalls of short duration and high intensity that gives rise to rapid and

  13. Riparian erosion vulnerability model based on environmental features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botero-Acosta, Alejandra; Chu, Maria L; Guzman, Jorge A; Starks, Patrick J; Moriasi, Daniel N

    2017-12-01

    Riparian erosion is one of the major causes of sediment and contaminant load to streams, degradation of riparian wildlife habitats, and land loss hazards. Land and soil management practices are implemented as conservation and restoration measures to mitigate the environmental problems brought about by riparian erosion. This, however, requires the identification of vulnerable areas to soil erosion. Because of the complex interactions between the different mechanisms that govern soil erosion and the inherent uncertainties involved in quantifying these processes, assessing erosion vulnerability at the watershed scale is challenging. The main objective of this study was to develop a methodology to identify areas along the riparian zone that are susceptible to erosion. The methodology was developed by integrating the physically-based watershed model MIKE-SHE, to simulate water movement, and a habitat suitability model, MaxEnt, to quantify the probability of presences of elevation changes (i.e., erosion) across the watershed. The presences of elevation changes were estimated based on two LiDAR-based elevation datasets taken in 2009 and 2012. The changes in elevation were grouped into four categories: low (0.5 - 0.7 m), medium (0.7 - 1.0 m), high (1.0 - 1.7 m) and very high (1.7 - 5.9 m), considering each category as a studied "species". The categories' locations were then used as "species location" map in MaxEnt. The environmental features used as constraints to the presence of erosion were land cover, soil, stream power index, overland flow, lateral inflow, and discharge. The modeling framework was evaluated in the Fort Cobb Reservoir Experimental watershed in southcentral Oklahoma. Results showed that the most vulnerable areas for erosion were located at the upper riparian zones of the Cobb and Lake sub-watersheds. The main waterways of these sub-watersheds were also found to be prone to streambank erosion. Approximatively 80% of the riparian zone (streambank

  14. 75 FR 10450 - Fisheries of the Northeastern United States; Atlantic Bluefish Fisheries; 2010 Atlantic Bluefish...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-08

    ... recreational landings for the 2010 fishing year by using simple linear regression of the recent (2001-2008... specifications document, including the Environmental Assessment and Initial Regulatory Flexibility Analysis (EA...-Atlantic RSA Program was published on January 2, 2009 (74 FR 72). For analysis of impacts for each TAL...

  15. 78 FR 62587 - Fisheries of the South Atlantic; South Atlantic Fishery Management Council; Public Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-22

    ... Essential Fish Habitat Policy Statements and receive training on the use of the Regional Habitat and... meeting of the South Atlantic Fishery Management Council's Habitat and Environmental Protection (Habitat... of its Habitat AP in St. Petersburg, FL. The meeting is open to the public. DATES: The meeting will...

  16. 75 FR 65298 - Fisheries of the South Atlantic; South Atlantic Fishery Management Council; Public Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-22

    ... five-year Essential Fish Habitat review, the Governor's South Atlantic Alliance Action Plan, a status... its Habitat and Environmental Protection (Habitat) Advisory Panel in North Charleston, SC. DATES: [email protected] . SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Members of the Habitat Advisory Panel will meet from 9 a.m.-5 p.m...

  17. A python framework for environmental model uncertainty analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Jeremy; Fienen, Michael N.; Doherty, John E.

    2016-01-01

    We have developed pyEMU, a python framework for Environmental Modeling Uncertainty analyses, open-source tool that is non-intrusive, easy-to-use, computationally efficient, and scalable to highly-parameterized inverse problems. The framework implements several types of linear (first-order, second-moment (FOSM)) and non-linear uncertainty analyses. The FOSM-based analyses can also be completed prior to parameter estimation to help inform important modeling decisions, such as parameterization and objective function formulation. Complete workflows for several types of FOSM-based and non-linear analyses are documented in example notebooks implemented using Jupyter that are available in the online pyEMU repository. Example workflows include basic parameter and forecast analyses, data worth analyses, and error-variance analyses, as well as usage of parameter ensemble generation and management capabilities. These workflows document the necessary steps and provides insights into the results, with the goal of educating users not only in how to apply pyEMU, but also in the underlying theory of applied uncertainty quantification.

  18. Atlantic Salmon Telemetry Monitoring

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Annual telemetry data are collected as part of specific projects (assessments within watersheds) or as opportunistic efforts to characterize Atlantic salmon smolt...

  19. GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) was the first major international experiment of the Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP). It was conducted over...

  20. Concepts, methods and models to assess environmental impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pentreath, R.J.

    2002-01-01

    individual sites, is also planned in Canada. A somewhat conceptually different approach is that of an attempt to develop a hierarchical system for environmental protection based on a narrowly defined set of Reference Fauna and Flora analogous to that of Reference Man - consisting of defined dose models, data sets to estimate exposures, and data on biological effects, to provide a set of 'derived consideration levels' of dose-effect relationships for individual fauna and flora that could be used to help decision making (along with other relevant biological information) in different circumstances. Research work is also underway to produce systematic frameworks - also using a 'reference fauna and flora approach' - for assessing environmental impact in specific geographic areas, such as European and Arctic ecosystems. (author)

  1. Are North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Anomalies Westward Propagating?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Feng, Qingyi; Dijkstra, Hendrik

    2014-01-01

    The westward propagation of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is one of the main characteristics of one of the theories of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Here we use techniques from complex network modeling to investigate the existence of the westward propagation in the North Atlantic

  2. Developing models that analyze the economic/environmental trade-offs implicit in water resource management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howitt, R. E.

    2016-12-01

    Hydro-economic models have been used to analyze optimal supply management and groundwater use for the past 25 years. They are characterized by an objective function that usually maximizes economic measures such as consumer and producer surplus subject to hydrologic equations of motion or water distribution systems. The hydrologic and economic components are sometimes fully integrated. Alternatively they may use an iterative interactive process. Environmental considerations have been included in hydro-economic models as inequality constraints. Representing environmental requirements as constraints is a rigid approximation of the range of management alternatives that could be used to implement environmental objectives. The next generation of hydro-economic models, currently being developed, require that the environmental alternatives be represented by continuous or semi-continuous functions which relate water resource use allocated to the environment with the probabilities of achieving environmental objectives. These functions will be generated by process models of environmental and biological systems which are now advanced to the state that they can realistically represent environmental systems and flexibility to interact with economic models. Examples are crop growth models, climate modeling, and biological models of forest, fish, and fauna systems. These process models can represent environmental outcomes in a form that is similar to economic production functions. When combined with economic models the interacting process models can reproduce a range of trade-offs between economic and environmental objectives, and thus optimize social value of many water and environmental resources. Some examples of this next-generation of hydro-enviro- economic models are reviewed. In these models implicit production functions for environmental goods are combined with hydrologic equations of motion and economic response functions. We discuss models that show interaction between

  3. INDICATOR OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS OF AGRICULTURAL SECTORS UNDER THE ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this research is to propose an indicator to deal with environmental problems for agricultural sectors caused by goods and services production. The aspects to calculate the real benefit of agricultural sectors and environmental cost for analyzing are natural resources materials, energy and transportation, fertilizer and pesticides, and sanitary and similar service. From the research it was found that the highest environmental cost of natural resources materials was 026: charcoal and fire-wood, while the lowest was 010 coconut. The highest environmental cost for energy and transportation was 024: agricultural services, while the highest environmental cost for fertilizer and pesticides was 011: palm oil. lastly, 017: other agricultural products was found as the highest environmental cost for sanitary and similar service. As a result, 010: coconut gained the highest real benefit, while 024: agricultural services presented as the lowest read benefit for the company. If Thailand using environmental problem indicator, especially with the agricultural sector, it can help to formulate efficient policies and strategies for the country in 3 development areas, which are social, economic, and environmental development.

  4. Environmental noise and noise modelling-some aspects in Malaysian development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leong, Mohd Salman; Mohd Shafiek bin Hj Yaacob

    1994-01-01

    Environmental noise is of growing concern in Malaysia with the increasing awareness of the need for an environmental quality consistent with improved quality of life. While noise is one of the several elements in an Environmental Impact Assessment report, the degree of emphasis in the assessment is not as thorough as other aspects in the EIA study. The measurements, prediction (if at all any), and evaluation tended to be superficial. The paper presents a summary of correct noise descriptors and annoyance assessment parameters appropriate for the evaluation of environmental noise. The paper further highlights current inadequacies in the Environmental Quality Act for noise pollution, and annoyance assessment. Some examples of local noise pollution are presented. A discussion on environmental noise modelling is presented. Examples illustrating environmental noise modelling for a mining operation and a power station are given. It is the authors' recommendation that environmental noise modelling be made mandatory in all EIA studies such that a more definitive assessment could be realised

  5. A Coupled Epipelagic-Meso/Bathypelagic Particle Flux Model for the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Station (BATS)/Oceanic Flux Program (OFP) Site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glover, D. M.; Conte, M.

    2002-12-01

    Of considerable scientific interest is the role remineralization plays in the global carbon cycle. It is the ``biological pump'' that fixes carbon in the upper water column and exports it for long time periods to the deep ocean. From a global carbon cycle point-of-view, it is the processes that govern remineralization in the mid- to deep-ocean waters that provide the feedback to the biogeochemical carbon cycle. In this study we construct an ecosystem model that serves as a mechanistic link between euphotic processes and mesopelagic and bathypelagic processes. We then use this prognostic model to further our understanding of the unparalleled time-series of deep-water sediment traps (21+ years) at the Oceanic Flux Program (OFP) and the euphotic zone measurements (10+ years) at the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Site (BATS). At the core of this mechanistic ecosystem model of the mesopelagic zone is a model that consists of an active feeding habit zooplankton, a passive feeding habit zooplankton, large detritus (sinks), small detritus (non-sinking), and a nutrient pool. As the detritus, the primary source of food, moves through the water column it is fed upon by the active/passive zooplankton pair and undergoes bacterially mediated remineralization into nutrients. The large detritus pool at depth gains material from the formation of fecal pellets from the passive and active zooplankton. Sloppy feeding habits of the active zooplankton contribute to the small detrital pool. Zooplankton mortality (both classes) also contribute directly to the large detritus pool. Aggregation and disaggregation transform detrital particles from one pool to the other and back again. The nutrients at each depth will gain from detrital remineralization and zooplankton excretion. The equations that model the active zooplankton, passive zooplankton, large detritus, small detritus, and nutrients will be reviewed, results shown and future model modifications discussed.

  6. Downscaling, 2-way Nesting, and Data Assimilative Modeling in Coastal and Shelf Waters of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Bight and Gulf of Maine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkin, J.; Levin, J.; Lopez, A.; Arango, H.

    2016-02-01

    Coastal ocean models that downscale output from basin and global scale models are widely used to study regional circulation at enhanced resolution and locally important ecosystem, biogeochemical, and geomorphologic processes. When operated as now-cast or forecast systems, these models offer predictions that assist decision-making for numerous maritime applications. We describe such a system for shelf waters of the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) and Gulf of Maine (GoM) where the MARACOOS and NERACOOS associations of U.S. IOOS operate coastal ocean observing systems that deliver a dense observation set using CODAR HF-radar, autonomous underwater glider vehicles (AUGV), telemetering moorings, and drifting buoys. Other U.S. national and global observing systems deliver further sustained observations from moorings, ships, profiling floats, and a constellation of satellites. Our MAB and GoM re-analysis and forecast system uses the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS; myroms.org) with 4-dimensional Variational (4D-Var) data assimilation to adjust initial conditions, boundary conditions, and surface forcing in each analysis cycle. Data routinely assimilated include CODAR velocities, altimeter satellite sea surface height (with coastal corrections), satellite temperature, in situ CTD data from AUGV and ships (NMFS Ecosystem Monitoring voyages), and all in situ data reported via the WMO GTS network. A climatological data assimilative analysis of hydrographic and long-term mean velocity observations specifies the regional Mean Dynamic Topography that augments altimeter sea level anomaly data and is also used to adjust boundary condition biases that would otherwise be introduced in the process of downscaling from global models. System performance is described with respect to the impact of satellite, CODAR and in situ observations on analysis skill. Results from a 2-way nested modeling system that adds enhanced resolution over the NSF OOI Pioneer Array in the central MAB are also

  7. Managing uncertainty in integrated environmental modelling: The UncertWeb framework.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bastin, L.; Cornford, D.; Jones, R.; Heuvelink, G.B.M.; Pebesma, E.; Stasch, C.; Nativi, S.; Mazzetti, P.

    2013-01-01

    Web-based distributed modelling architectures are gaining increasing recognition as potentially useful tools to build holistic environmental models, combining individual components in complex workflows. However, existing web-based modelling frameworks currently offer no support for managing

  8. Visual Environment for Rich Data Interpretation (VERDI) program for environmental modeling systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    VERDI is a flexible, modular, Java-based program used for visualizing multivariate gridded meteorology, emissions and air quality modeling data created by environmental modeling systems such as the CMAQ model and WRF.

  9. Fast northward energy transfer in the Atlantic due to Agulhas Rings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Sebille, Erik; van Leeuwen, P.J.

    2007-01-01

    The adiabatic transit time of wave energy radiated by an Agulhas ring released in the South Atlantic Ocean to the North Atlantic Ocean is investigated in a two-layer ocean model. Of particular interest is the arrival time of baroclinic energy in the northern part of the Atlantic, because it is

  10. Environmental standards as strategic outcomes: A simple model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhattacharya, Rabindra N.; Pal, Rupayan

    2010-01-01

    This paper analyses the strategic nature of choice of environmental standards considering both local and global pollution under alternative regimes of international trade. It also compares and contrasts the strategic equilibrium environmental standards and levels of pollution, local and global, with the world optimum levels. It shows that, in case of open economies, environmental standards can be either strategic substitutes or strategic complements. On the contrary, in case of closed economies, environmental standards are always strategic substitutes. It also shows that the strategic equilibrium environmental standards in case of open economies are higher than the world optimum in certain situations. Whereas, in absence of international trade, countries set, in equilibrium, lower environmental standards than the world optimum. (author)

  11. Towards a taxon-specific parameterization of bio-optical models of primary production: a case study in the North Atlantic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Claustre, H.; Babin, M.; Merien, D.; Ras, J.; Prieur, L.; Dallot, S.; Prášil, Ondřej; Doušová, Helena; Moutin, T.

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 110, - (2005), C07S12 ISSN 0148-0227 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50200510 Keywords : north atlantic * phytoplankton Subject RIV: EE - Microbiology, Virology Impact factor: 2.784, year: 2005

  12. The North Atlantic Oscillation: variability and interactions with the North Atlantic ocean and Artic sea ice

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, T

    2000-07-01

    The North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) represents the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic region and describes the strengthening and weakening of the midlatitude westerlies. In this study, variability of the NAO during wintertime and its relationship to the North Atlantic ocean and Arctic sea ice is investigated. For this purpose, observational data are analyzed along with integrations of models for the Atlantic ocean, Arctic sea ice, and the coupled global climate system. From a statistical point of view, the observed NAO index shows unusually high variance on interdecadal time scales during the 20th century. Variability on other time scales is consistent with realizations of random processes (''white noise''). Recurrence of wintertime NAO anomalies from winter-to-winter with missing signals during the inbetween nonwinter seasons is primarily associated with interdecadal variability of the NAO. This recurrence indicates that low-frequency changes of the NAO during the 20th century were in part externally forced. (orig.)

  13. ENVIRONMENTAL RESPONSIBILITY MODEL BASED ON ISO 14000 MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

    OpenAIRE

    Catalina SITNIKOV

    2012-01-01

    Worldwide corporations, as well as their stakeholders, are more conscious of the need for environmental management, SR behaviour, and sustainable growth and development. International Standards are becoming more significant for corporations to work towards common environmental management practices. ISO 14001 is the first and the broadest standard intended at a more responsible approach of corporations and the world’s most acknowledged framework for environmental management systems that assist...

  14. Fuzzy ABC: modeling the uncertainty in environmental cost allocation

    OpenAIRE

    Borba, José Alonso; Murcia, Fernando Dal Ri; Maior, Cesar Duarte Souto

    2007-01-01

    In many cases, preventing pollution and environmental destruction is cheaper than remedying these damages. In this sense, environmental cost allocation enables a better visualization and analysis of a product's profitability. However, the environmental allocation process involves estimated information and assumes linearity between activity consumption and product that is not real in many cases. In order to handle this not-linearity, this research presents a methodology based on fuzzy logic co...

  15. The Integration of Environmental Education in Science Materials by Using "MOTORIC" Learning Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukarjita, I. Wayan; Ardi, Muhammad; Rachman, Abdul; Supu, Amiruddin; Dirawan, Gufran Darma

    2015-01-01

    The research of the integration of Environmental Education in science subject matter by application of "MOTORIC" Learning models has carried out on Junior High School Kupang Nusa Tenggara Timur Indonesia. "MOTORIC" learning model is an Environmental Education (EE) learning model that collaborate three learning approach i.e.…

  16. Experiences in multiyear combined state-parameter estimation with an ecosystem model of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans using the Ensemble Kalman Filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Ehouarn; Samuelsen, Annette; Bertino, Laurent; Mouysset, Sandrine

    2015-12-01

    A sequence of one-year combined state-parameter estimation experiments has been conducted in a North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean configuration of the coupled physical-biogeochemical model HYCOM-NORWECOM over the period 2007-2010. The aim is to evaluate the ability of an ensemble-based data assimilation method to calibrate ecosystem model parameters in a pre-operational setting, namely the production of the MyOcean pilot reanalysis of the Arctic biology. For that purpose, four biological parameters (two phyto- and two zooplankton mortality rates) are estimated by assimilating weekly data such as, satellite-derived Sea Surface Temperature, along-track Sea Level Anomalies, ice concentrations and chlorophyll-a concentrations with an Ensemble Kalman Filter. The set of optimized parameters locally exhibits seasonal variations suggesting that time-dependent parameters should be used in ocean ecosystem models. A clustering analysis of the optimized parameters is performed in order to identify consistent ecosystem regions. In the north part of the domain, where the ecosystem model is the most reliable, most of them can be associated with Longhurst provinces and new provinces emerge in the Arctic Ocean. However, the clusters do not coincide anymore with the Longhurst provinces in the Tropics due to large model errors. Regarding the ecosystem state variables, the assimilation of satellite-derived chlorophyll concentration leads to significant reduction of the RMS errors in the observed variables during the first year, i.e. 2008, compared to a free run simulation. However, local filter divergences of the parameter component occur in 2009 and result in an increase in the RMS error at the time of the spring bloom.

  17. Modelling of hydrothermal fluid circulation in a heterogeneous medium: Application to the Rainbow Vent site (Mid-Atlantic-Ridge, 36°14N)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez, F.; Mügler, C.; Jean-Baptiste, P.; Charlou, J. L.

    2012-04-01

    Hydrothermal activity at the axis of mid-ocean ridges is a key driver for energy and matter transfer from the interior of the Earth to the ocean floor. At mid-ocean ridges, seawater penetrates through the permeable young crust, warms at depth and exchanges chemicals with the surrounding rocks. This hot fluid focuses and flows upwards, then is expelled from the crust at hydrothermal vent sites in the form of black or white smokers completed by diffusive emissions. We developed a new numerical tool in the Cast3M software framework to model such hydrothermal circulations. Thermodynamic properties of one-phase pure water were calculated from the IAPWS formulation. This new numerical tool was validated on several test cases of convection in closed-top and open-top boxes. Simulations of hydrothermal circulation in a homogeneous-permeability porous medium also gave results in good agreement with already published simulations. We used this new numerical tool to construct a geometric and physical model configuration of the Rainbow Vent site at 36°14'N on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. In this presentation, several configurations will be discussed, showing that high temperatures and high mass fluxes measured at the Rainbow site cannot be modelled with hydrothermal circulation in a homogeneous-permeability porous medium. We will show that these high values require the presence of a fault or a preferential pathway right below the venting site. We will propose and discuss a 2-D one-path model that allows us to simulate both high temperatures and high mass fluxes. This modelling of the hydrothermal circulation at the Rainbow site constitutes a first but necessary step to understand the origin of high concentrations of hydrogen issued from this ultramafic-hosted vent field.

  18. Resource use and efficiency, and stomatal responses to environmental drivers of oak and pine species in an Atlantic Coastal Plain forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heidi J Renninger

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Pine-oak ecosystems are globally distributed even though differences in anatomy and leaf habit between many co-occurring oaks and pines suggest different strategies for resource use, efficiency and stomatal behavior. The New Jersey Pinelands contain sandy soils with low water- and nutrient-holding capacity providing an opportunity to examine trade-offs in resource uptake and efficiency. Therefore, we compared resource use in terms of transpiration rates and leaf nitrogen content and resource-use efficiency including water-use efficiency (WUE via gas exchange and leaf carbon isotopes and photosynthetic nitrogen-use efficiency (PNUE between oaks (Quercus alba, Q. prinus, Q. velutina and pines (Pinus rigida, P. echinata. We also determined environmental drivers (vapor pressure deficit (VPD, soil moisture, solar radiation of canopy stomatal conductance (GS estimated via sap flow and stomatal sensitivity to light and soil moisture. Net assimilation rates were similar between genera, but oak leaves used about 10% more water and pine foliage contained about 20% more N per unit leaf area. Therefore, oaks exhibited greater PNUE while pines had higher WUE based on gas exchange, although WUE from carbon isotopes was not significantly different. For the environmental drivers of GS, oaks had about 10% lower stomatal sensitivity to VPD normalized by reference stomatal conductance compared with pines. Pines exhibited a significant positive relationship between shallow soil moisture and GS, but only GS in Q. velutina was positively related to soil moisture. In contrast, stomatal sensitivity to VPD was significantly related to solar radiation in all oak species but only pines at one site. Therefore, oaks rely more heavily on groundwater resources but have lower WUE, while pines have larger leaf areas and nitrogen acquisition but lower PNUE demonstrating a trade-off between using water and nitrogen efficiently in a resource-limited ecosystem.

  19. Resource use and efficiency, and stomatal responses to environmental drivers of oak and pine species in an Atlantic Coastal Plain forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renninger, Heidi J; Carlo, Nicholas J; Clark, Kenneth L; Schäfer, Karina V R

    2015-01-01

    Pine-oak ecosystems are globally distributed even though differences in anatomy and leaf habit between many co-occurring oaks and pines suggest different strategies for resource use, efficiency and stomatal behavior. The New Jersey Pinelands contain sandy soils with low water- and nutrient-holding capacity providing an opportunity to examine trade-offs in resource uptake and efficiency. Therefore, we compared resource use in terms of transpiration rates and leaf nitrogen content and resource-use efficiency including water-use efficiency (WUE) via gas exchange and leaf carbon isotopes and photosynthetic nitrogen-use efficiency (PNUE) between oaks (Quercus alba, Q. prinus, Q. velutina) and pines (Pinus rigida, P. echinata). We also determined environmental drivers [vapor pressure deficit (VPD), soil moisture, solar radiation] of canopy stomatal conductance (GS) estimated via sap flow and stomatal sensitivity to light and soil moisture. Net assimilation rates were similar between genera, but oak leaves used about 10% more water and pine foliage contained about 20% more N per unit leaf area. Therefore, oaks exhibited greater PNUE while pines had higher WUE based on gas exchange, although WUE from carbon isotopes was not significantly different. For the environmental drivers of GS, oaks had about 10% lower stomatal sensitivity to VPD normalized by reference stomatal conductance compared with pines. Pines exhibited a significant positive relationship between shallow soil moisture and GS, but only GS in Q. velutina was positively related to soil moisture. In contrast, stomatal sensitivity to VPD was significantly related to solar radiation in all oak species but only pines at one site. Therefore, oaks rely more heavily on groundwater resources but have lower WUE, while pines have larger l