Sample records for enso related phenomena

  1. Analytical Formulation of Equatorial Standing Wave Phenomena: Application to QBO and ENSO (United States)

    Pukite, P. R.


    Key equatorial climate phenomena such as QBO and ENSO have never been adequately explained as deterministic processes. This in spite of recent research showing growing evidence of predictable behavior. This study applies the fundamental Laplace tidal equations with simplifying assumptions along the equator — i.e. no Coriolis force and a small angle approximation. To connect the analytical Sturm-Liouville results to observations, a first-order forcing consistent with a seasonally aliased Draconic or nodal lunar period (27.21d aliased into 2.36y) is applied. This has a plausible rationale as it ties a latitudinal forcing cycle via a cross-product to the longitudinal terms in the Laplace formulation. The fitted results match the features of QBO both qualitatively and quantitatively; adding second-order terms due to other seasonally aliased lunar periods provides finer detail while remaining consistent with the physical model. Further, running symbolic regression machine learning experiments on the data provided a validation to the approach, as it discovered the same analytical form and fitted values as the first principles Laplace model. These results conflict with Lindzen's QBO model, in that his original formulation fell short of making the lunar connection, even though Lindzen himself asserted "it is unlikely that lunar periods could be produced by anything other than the lunar tidal potential".By applying a similar analytical approach to ENSO, we find that the tidal equations need to be replaced with a Mathieu-equation formulation consistent with describing a sloshing process in the thermocline depth. Adapting the hydrodynamic math of sloshing, we find a biennial modulation coupled with angular momentum forcing variations matching the Chandler wobble gives an impressive match over the measured ENSO range of 1880 until the present. Lunar tidal periods and an additional triaxial nutation of 14 year period provide additional fidelity. The caveat is a phase

  2. ENSO-related PM10 variability on the Korean Peninsula (United States)

    Wie, Jieun; Moon, Byung-Kwon


    Particulate matter, defined as particles of less than 10 μm in diameter (PM10), was analyzed over the Korean Peninsula from 2001 to 2015 to examine the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on subseasonal PM10 variability. The PM10 data were obtained from 151 air quality monitoring stations provided by the Korea Environment Corporation (KECO). Lead-lag correlation analysis, which was performed to investigate the connection between NDJF (November-February) NINO3 index and seasonal mean PM10 data, did not yield any statistically significant correlations. However, using five-pentad moving-averaged PM10 data, statistically significant correlations between NDJF NINO3 index and PM10 variability were found in four subseasonal periods, with alternating positive and negative correlations. In the periods during which PM10 levels on the Korean Peninsula were positively (negatively) correlated with the ENSO index, the positive PM10 anomalies are associated with El Niño (La Niña) years, which implies that the occurrence of high-PM10 events could be modulated by the ENSO phase. In addition, this ENSO-related PM10 variation is negatively correlated with ENSO-related precipitation in the Korean Peninsula, indicating that more (less) wet deposition leads to lower (higher) PM10 level. Therefore, we conclude that the ENSO-induced precipitation anomalies over the Korean Peninsula are mainly responsible for ENSO-related PM10 variations. This study will be helpful for further identifying detailed chemistry-climate processes that control PM10 concentrations.

  3. Whistlers and related ionospheric phenomena

    CERN Document Server

    Helliwell, Robert A


    The investigation of whistlers and related phenomena is a key element in studies of very-low-frequency propagation, satellite communication, the outer ionosphere, and solar-terrestrial relationships. This comprehensive text presents a history of the study of the phenomena and includes all the elements necessary for the calculation of the characteristics of whistlers and whistler-mode signals.An introduction and brief history are followed by a summary of the theory of whistlers and a detailed explanation of the calculation of their characteristics. Succeeding chapters offer a complete atlas of

  4. Solar Neutrons and Related Phenomena

    CERN Document Server

    Dorman, Lev


    This book presents the first comprehensive compilation and review of the extensive body of experimental and theoretical material on solar neutrons and related phenomena published in the scientific literature over the last sixty years. Phenomena related to solar neutrons are more specifically: the decay products of solar neutrons solar gamma rays generated in processes like nuclear reactions between solar energetic charged particles and matter of the solar atmosphere, as well as by the capture of solar neutrons by hydrogen atoms in the solar atmosphere the propagation of solar neutrons, solar gamma rays and other secondary particles through the solar photosphere, chromosphere and corona, as well as through interplanetary space and through the Earth's atmosphere. Models and simulations of particle acceleration, interactions, and propagation processes show that observations of solar neutrons and gamma rays in space and in the Earth's atmosphere yield essential and unique information on the source function of ene...

  5. Understanding empathy and related phenomena. (United States)

    Shamasundar, C


    Over a period of time, the author arrived at a few tentative postulates concerning empathy and related processes based on some of his experiences and observations. The central theme of these postulates is, firstly, that interpersonal interaction is an interaction of the personal-space fields. Secondly, empathy, therapeutic benefit, and the professional stress are all related to the same process of interpersonal interaction. This interaction takes place as an enmeshment of personal spaces of the interacting individuals, and involves transfer of a wide range of information in the affective, cognitive, and other areas. This is because the personal spaces have fieldlike qualities analogous to what Kurt Lewin described. Thus, such phenomena as empathy, therapeutic benefit, professional stress are all consequences of the same process. It is possible to substantiate these postulates by diverse evidences in the published literature. The natural consequences of such an interpersonal interaction are empathic understanding, transfer of mood states (like hope, distress or expectancy), affective states (like anxiety, sadness, anger or hostility), ideas, images and even attitudes and values, etc. This phenomenon of transfer can explain such processes as therapeutic benefit in individual and group settings, professional stress, shared delusions, and even experimenter bias. Whether one becomes aware of such transferred information or not depends upon the intent and sensitivity of the participants.

  6. Twentieth century ENSO-related precipitation mean states in twentieth century reanalysis, reconstructed precipitation and CMIP5 models (United States)

    Dai, Ni; Arkin, Phillip A.


    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related precipitation during the entire twentieth century is compared among the twentieth century reanalysis (20CR), a statistically reconstructed precipitation dataset (REC) and 30 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Empirical orthogonal functions, ENSO-related precipitation composites based on sea surface temperature (SST)-constructed ENSO index and singular value decomposition (SVD) are employed to extract ENSO-related precipitation/SST signals in each dataset. With the background trend being removed in all of the data, our results show that the REC and the 20CR resemble both in their precipitation climatology and ENSO-related precipitation results. The biases in the CMIP5 models precipitation climatology such as dry equator over the Pacific Ocean, "double-intertropical convergence zones (ITCZs)" and overly zonal Southern Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) are major reasons for lowering spatial correlations with the REC and the 20CR precipitation climatology. Two groups of CMIP5 models are built based on severity of these biases in their precipitation background and the spatial correlations of ENSO-related precipitation with the observations. Compared with the group with more severe biases in its precipitation climatology, the group with smaller biases tends to produce more ENSO-like precipitation patterns, simulate more realistic mean magnitude and seasonal variability of ENSO precipitation signals, as well as generating better ENSO-related SST/precipitation correlation patterns produced in its SVD analysis. The ENSO-related precipitation biases in the CMIP5 models over the western Pacific and Indian Ocean, as well as the equatorial Pacific, are strongly related with their precipitation climatology biases over these regions. The ENSO-related precipitation biases over the off-equator eastern Pacific Ocean are associated with both the "double-ITCZs" biases in the precipitation climatology and the ENSO-related

  7. ENSO related SST anomalies and relation with surface heat fluxes over south Pacific and Atlantic (United States)

    Chatterjee, S.; Nuncio, M.; Satheesan, K.


    The role of surface heat fluxes in Southern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean SST anomalies associated with El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is studied using observation and ocean reanalysis products. A prominent dipole structure in SST anomaly is found with a positive (negative) anomaly center over south Pacific (65S-45S, 120W-70W) and negative (positive) one over south Atlantic (50S-30S, 30W-0E) during austral summer (DJF) of El Nino (LaNina). During late austral spring-early summer (OND) of El Nino (LaNina), anomalous northerly (southerly) meridional moisture transport and a positive (negative) sea level pressure anomaly induces a suppressed (enhanced) latent heat flux from the ocean surface over south Pacific. This in turn results in a shallower than normal mixed layer depth which further helps in development of the SST anomaly. Mixed layer thins further due to anomalous shortwave radiation during summer and a well developed SST anomaly evolves. The south Atlantic pole exhibits exactly opposite characteristics at the same time. The contribution from the surface heat fluxes to mixed layer temperature change is found to be dominant over the advective processes over both the basins. Net surface heat fluxes anomaly is also found to be maximum during late austral spring-early summer period, with latent heat flux having a major contribution to it. The anomalous latent heat fluxes between atmosphere and ocean surface play important role in the growth of observed summertime SST anomaly. Sea-surface height also shows similar out-of-phase signatures over the two basins and are well correlated with the ENSO related SST anomalies. It is also observed that the magnitude of ENSO related anomalies over the southern ocean are weaker in LaNina years than in El Nino years, suggesting an intensified tropics-high latitude tele-connection during warm phases of ENSO.

  8. The role of sea surface salinity in ENSO related water cycle anomaly (United States)

    Tang, Wenqing; Yueh, Simon


    This study investigates the role of sea surface salinity (SSS) in the water cycle anomaly associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The 2015-16 El Niño, one of the strongest ENSO events observed in centuries, coincident with unprecedented coverage of spacebased remote sensing of SSS over global oceans. We analyze three SSS data sets: from the NASA's missions of SMAP and Aquarius, and the ESA's Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS). One typical characteristics of an ENSO event is the zonal displacement of the Western equatorial Pacific Fresh Pool (WPFP). The edge of the pool extends eastward during El Niño, retreats westward during La Niña. For super El Niño, the eastern edge of WPFP extends much more east across the equatorial Pacific. Indeed, SSS from SMAP reveals much stronger eastward migration of WPFP starting in April 2015. The eastern edge of WPFP reached 140°W in March 2016, about 40° more eastward extension than Aquarius observed in previous years. In the following months from March to June 2016, WPFP retreated westward, coincident with the ending of this strong El Niño event [WMO, El Nino/La Nina update, 2016]. SMOS data shows similar feature, confirming that there is no systematic biases between SMAP and Aquarius retrievals. We examine the linkage between the observed SSS variation and ENSO related water cycle anomaly by integrated analysis of SSS data sets in conjunction with other satellite and in situ measurements on rain, wind, evaporation and ocean currents. Based on the governing equation of the mixed layer salt budget, the freshwater exchange between air-sea interfaces is estimated as residual of the mixed-layer salinity (MLS) temporal change and advection (Focean), as an alternative to evaporation minus precipitation (FE-P). We analyzed the spatial and temporal variation of Focean and FE-P to explore the anomalous signature in the oceanic and atmospheric branches of the water cycle associated with 2015/16 ENSO. The maximum

  9. ENSO and PDO-related climate variability impacts on Midwestern United States crop yields (United States)

    Henson, Chasity; Market, Patrick; Lupo, Anthony; Guinan, Patrick


    An analysis of crop yields for the state of Missouri was completed to determine if an interannual or multidecadal variability existed as a result of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Corn and soybean yields were recorded in kilograms per hectare for each of the six climate regions of Missouri. An analysis using the Mokhov "method of cycles" demonstrated interannual, interdecadal, and multidecadal variations in crop yields. Cross-spectral analysis was used to determine which region was most impacted by ENSO and PDO influenced seasonal (April-September) temperature and precipitation. Interannual (multidecadal) variations found in the spectral analysis represent a relationship to ENSO (PDO) phase, while interdecadal variations represent a possible interaction between ENSO and PDO. Average crop yields were then calculated for each combination of ENSO and PDO phase, displaying a pronounced increase in corn and soybean yields when ENSO is warm and PDO is positive. Climate regions 1, 2, 4, and 6 displayed significant differences ( p value of 0.10 or less) in yields between El Niño and La Niña years, representing 55-70 % of Missouri soybean and corn productivity, respectively. Final results give the opportunity to produce seasonal predictions of corn and soybean yields, specific to each climate region in Missouri, based on the combination of ENSO and PDO phases.

  10. Astrophysical phenomena related to supermassive black holes (United States)

    Pott, Jörg-Uwe


    reactions in stars. In the most active galaxies known, the radiating accretion disc of the central SMBH engine easily outshines the stellar light of the entire galaxy (Blandford 1995). In addition to the light, plasma streams can emerge from the innermost regions at relativistic velocities, returning energy to the host galaxy (host) and creating jets and lobes with strong observational signatures, especially at radio and X-ray wavelengths (Wilson 2003). New insights in the wide field of SMBH/host interaction are often related to the development of new, more sensitive instruments and telescopes. For example the idea, that a high luminosity AGN may result from a merger event between two galaxies, could only develop with the upcoming high resolution and sensitive imaging capabilities needed to detect the highly distorted host galaxy morphologies of (post-)merger galaxies (Heckman et al. 1986). Furthermore multi-wavelength approaches, which combine the results of measurements at different wavelengths, often lead to new conclusions or confirm unsecured hypotheses. Thus developing a new instrument can be as valuable as combining different datasets. I follow both approaches and developed projects which (i) deal with new instrumentation and telescope technology, (ii) combine datasets from different wavelengths and resolutions, and (iii) incorporate recent theoretical models and predictions, which can be verified empirically. While some projects are more focused on investigating the power of new observational techniques, others incorporate acknowledged instruments to probe predictions based on previous observations and models and trace special phenomena of SMBH/host interaction. But in most cases aspects of all three items appear. The SMBH/host interaction results in phenomena at all linear size scales of the system, from the direct accretion of matter onto the central black hole up to radio jets crossing the entire galaxy. Thus interaction effects do not simply concentrate on the

  11. Variability modes of precipitation along a Central Mediterranean area and their relations with ENSO, NAO, and other climatic patterns (United States)

    Kalimeris, Anastasios; Ranieri, Ezio; Founda, Dimitra; Norrant, Caroline


    This study analyses a century-long set of precipitation time series in the Central Mediterranean (encompassing the Greek Ionian and the Italian Puglia regions) and investigates the statistically significant modes of the interannual precipitation variability using efficient methods of spectral decomposition. The statistical relations and the possible physical couplings between the detected modes and the global or hemispheric patterns of climatic variability (the El Niño Southern Oscillation or ENSO, the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO, the East Atlantic or EA, the Scandinavian or SCAND, and others) were examined in the time-frequency domain and low-order synchronization events were sought. Significant modes of precipitation variability were detected in the Taranto Gulf and the southern part of the Greek Ionian region at the sub-decadal scales (mostly driven by the SCAND pattern) and particularly at the decadal and quasi-decadal scales, where strong relations found with the ENSO activity (under complex implications of EA and NAO) prior to the 1930s or after the early-1970s. The precipitation variations in the Adriatic stations of Puglia are dominated by significant bi-decadal modes which found to be coherent with the ENSO activity and also weakly related with the Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature intrinsic variability. Additionally, important discontinuities characterize the evolution of precipitation in certain stations of the Taranto Gulf and the Greek Ionian region during the early-1960s and particularly during the early-1970s, followed by significant reductions in the mean annual precipitation. These discontinuities seem to be associated with regional effects of NAO and SCAND, probably combined with the impact of the 1970s climatic shift in the Pacific and the ENSO variability.

  12. Modelling of general relativity phenomena with photonics


    Fernández Núñez, Isabel Dèlia


    Treball final de màster oficial fet en col·laboració amb Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Universitat de Barcelona (UB) i Institut de Ciències Fotòniques (ICFO) [ANGLÈS] Metamaterials are man-made artificial materials whose electromagnetic parameters the permittivity and permeability are determined by its internal structure rather than their substance. An analogy between the electrodynamics of these new materials and general relativity is discussed. Based on this analogy, the possi...

  13. Using Remote Sensing Products to Identify Marine Association Patterns in Factors Relating to ENSO in the Pacific Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cunjin Xue


    Full Text Available El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO and its relationships with marine environmental parameters comprise a very complicated and interrelated system. Traditional spatiotemporal techniques face great challenges in dealing with which, how, and where the marine environmental parameters in different zones help to drive, and respond to, ENSO events. Remote sensing products covering a 15-year period from 1998 to 2012 were used to quantitatively explore these patterns in the Pacific Ocean (PO by a prevail quantitative association rule mining algorithm, that is, a priori, within a mining framework. The marine environmental parameters considered were monthly anomaly of sea surface chlorophyll-a (CHLA, monthly anomaly of sea surface temperature (SSTA, monthly anomaly of sea level anomaly (SLAA, monthly anomaly of sea surface precipitation (SSPA, and monthly anomaly of sea surface wind speed (WSA. Four significant discoveries are found, namely: (1 Association patterns among marine environmental parameters and ENSO events were found primarily in five sub-regions of the PO: the western PO, the central and eastern tropical PO, the middle of the northern subtropical PO, offshore of the California coast, and the southern PO; (2 In the western and the middle and east of the equatorial PO, the association patterns are more complicated than other regions; (3 The following factors were found to be predicators of and responses to La Niña events: abnormal decrease of SLAA and WSA in the east of the equatorial PO, abnormal decrease of SSPA and WSA in the middle of the equatorial PO, abnormal decrease of SSTA in the eastern and central tropical PO, and abnormal increase of SLAA in the western PO; (4 Only abnormal decrease of CHLA in the middle of the equatorial PO was found to be a predicator of and response to El Niño events. These findings will help to improve our abilities to identify the marine association patterns in factors relating to ENSO events.

  14. Mechanism of Interannual Variability in Western Boundary Currents along Madagascar and their Relation with the ENSO (United States)

    Yamagami, Y.; Tozuka, T.


    The South Equatorial Current (SEC) in the Indian Ocean bifurcates at the east coast of Madagascar into the Northeast and Southeast Madagascar Currents (NEMC and SEMC, respectively). The NEMC and SEMC transport anomalies influence eddy activities in the Mozambique Channel and the southwest of Madagascar. These eddies not only influence the ecosystems in the Mozambique Channel, but may also modulate the global thermohaline circulation by affecting water mass exchange between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans through their influence on the Agulhas Ring shedding. Therefore, to enhance understanding of the dynamical connection between NEMC and SEMC variability and physical and biological variability in their downstream, the dynamical mechanism of interannual variations in the NEMC and SEMC transport is investigated. The NEMC (SEMC) transport in reanalysis data undergoes interannual variations with the peak-to-peak amplitude of about 15 (6) Sv. The time-dependent Island Rule indicates that the above interannual variations are due to the responses to anomalous meridional interior transport. This is a result of westward popagating Rossby waves generated by Ekman pumping anomalies over 60°E - 90°E. It is shown that the NEMC and SEMC transports are correlated with the Niño 3.4 index with 5-15 months lag and ENSO-related diabatic heating anomalies over the western tropical Pacific generate wind stress curl anomalies over the southern Indian Ocean. These wind stress anomalies are also modified by local SST anomalies in the southeastern Indian Ocean. The above influences from the local and remote SST anomalies are confirmed by atmospheric general circulation model experiments.

  15. The relative influence of ENSO and SAM on Antarctic Peninsula climate (United States)

    Clem, Kyle R.; Renwick, James A.; McGregor, James; Fogt, Ryan L.


    Recent warming of the Antarctic Peninsula during austral autumn, winter, and spring has been linked to sea surface temperature (SST) trends in the tropical Pacific and tropical Atlantic, while warming of the northeast Peninsula during summer has been linked to a strengthening of westerly winds traversing the Peninsula associated with a positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Here we demonstrate that circulation changes associated with the SAM dominate interannual temperature variability across the entire Antarctic Peninsula during both summer and autumn, while relationships with tropical Pacific SST variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are strongest and statistically significant primarily during winter and spring only. We find the ENSO-Peninsula temperature relationship during autumn to be weak on interannual time scales and regional circulation anomalies associated with the SAM more important for interannual temperature variability across the Peninsula during autumn. Consistent with previous studies, western Peninsula temperatures during autumn, winter, and spring are closely tied to changes in the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) and associated meridional wind anomalies. The interannual variability of ASL depth is most strongly correlated with the SAM index during autumn, while the ENSO relationship is strongest during winter and spring. Investigation of western and northeast Peninsula temperatures separately reveals that interannual variability of northeast Peninsula temperatures is primarily sensitive to zonal wind anomalies crossing the Peninsula and resultant leeside adiabatic warming rather than to meridional wind anomalies, which is closely tied to variability in the zonal portion of the SAM pattern.

  16. Seasonality of alcohol-related phenomena in Estonia (United States)

    Silm, Siiri; Ahas, Rein


    We studied alcohol consumption and its consequences as a seasonal phenomenon in Estonia and analysed the social and environmental factors that may cause its seasonal rhythm. There are two important questions when researching the seasonality of human activities: (1) whether it is caused by natural or social factors, and (2) whether the impact of the factors is direct or indirect. Often the seasonality of social phenomena is caused by social factors, but the triggering mechanisms are related to environmental factors like temperature, precipitation, and radiation via the circannual calendar. The indicators of alcohol consumption in the current paper are grouped as: (1) pre-consumption phenomena, i.e. production, tax and excise, sales (beer, wine and vodka are analysed separately), and (2) post-consumption phenomena, i.e. alcohol-related crime and traffic accidents and the number of people detained in lockups and admitted to alcohol treatment clinics. In addition, seasonal variability in the amount of alcohol advertising has been studied, and a survey has been carried out among 87 students of Tartu University. The analysis shows that different phenomena related to alcohol have a clear seasonal rhythm in Estonia. The peak period of phenomena related to beer is in the summer, from June to August and the low point is during the first months of the year. Beer consumption correlates well with air temperature. The consumption of vodka increases sharply at the end of the year and in June; the production of vodka does not have a significant correlation with negative temperatures. The consumption of wine increases during summer and in December. The consequences of alcohol consumption, expressed as the rate of traffic accidents or the frequency of medical treatment, also show seasonal variability. Seasonal variability of alcohol consumption in Estonia is influenced by natural factors (temperature, humidity, etc.) and by social factors (celebrations, vacations, etc.). However

  17. Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) of depression-related phenomena


    Armey, Michael F.; SCHATTEN, HEATHER T.; Haradhvala, Natasha; Miller, Ivan W.


    Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) is one research method increasingly employed to better understand the processes that underpin depression and related phenomena. In particular, EMA is well suited to the study of affect (e.g., positive and negative affect), affective responses to stress (e.g., emotion reactivity), and behaviors (e.g., activity level, sleep) that are associated with depression. Additionally, EMA can provide insights into self-harm behavior (i.e. suicide and non-suicidal sel...

  18. Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate*

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bonfils, Céline J. W.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Marvel, Kate; Leung, L. Ruby; Doutriaux, Charles; Capotondi, Antonietta


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. Most climate models project an increase in the frequency of extreme El Niño events under increased greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing. However, it is unclear how other aspects of ENSO and ENSO-driven teleconnections will evolve in the future. Here, we identify in 20th century sea-surface temperature (SST) observations a time-invariant ENSO-like (ENSOL) pattern that is largely uncontaminated by GHG forcing. We use this pattern to investigate the future precipitation (P) response to ENSO-like SST anomalies. Models that better capture observed ENSOL characteristics produce P teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with observations and more stationary in the 21st century. We decompose the future P response to ENSOL into the sum of three terms: (1) the change in P mean state, (2) the historical P response to ENSOL, and (3) a future enhancement in the P response to ENSOL. In many regions, this last term can aggravate the P extremes associated with ENSO variability. This simple decomposition allows us to identify regions likely to experience ENSOL-induced P changes that are without precedent in the current climate.

  19. 2nd Workshop on Laser Interaction and Related Plasma Phenomena

    CERN Document Server

    Hora, Heinrich


    Paul Harteck Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Troy, New York When the Maser and the Laser Were discovered, people were speculating if this was the beginning of a new page, or even a new chapter, in the Book of Physics. The Second Workshop on "Laser Interaction and Related Plasma Phenomena" held in Hartford made it clear that the perspective had changed, that people now question if the consequences of these discoveries constitute a new chapter, or possibly a new era in Physics. While the papers presented were all stimulating and of out­ standing quality, of special interest were the experiments which demonstrated that triggering of thermonuclear fusion by Laser techniques is indeed in the realm of the possible. Along these lines, I enjoy recalling an anecdote concerning the late F. G. Houtermans. I think that all who knew him will agree that he was an unusual genius and at the same time a very amusing colleague.

  20. Revisiting ENSO/Indian Ocean Dipole phase relationships (United States)

    Stuecker, Malte F.; Timmermann, Axel; Jin, Fei-Fei; Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Zhang, Wenjun; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Widiasih, Esther; Zhao, Sen


    Here we show that the characteristics of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), such as its power spectrum and phase relationship with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can be succinctly explained by ENSO combination mode (C-mode) wind and heat flux forcing together with a seasonal modulation of the air/sea coupled Indian Ocean (IO) Bjerknes feedback. This model explains the observed high-frequency near-annual IOD variability in terms of deterministic ENSO/annual cycle interactions. ENSO-independent IOD events can be understood as a seasonally modulated ocean response to white noise atmospheric forcing. Under this new physical null hypothesis framework, IOD predictability is determined by both ENSO predictability and the ENSO signal-to-noise ratio. We further emphasize that lead/lag correlations between different climate variables are easily misinterpreted when not accounting properly for the seasonal modulation of the underlying climate phenomena.

  1. The dependence on atmospheric resolution of ENSO and related East Asian-western North Pacific summer climate variability in a coupled model (United States)

    Liu, Bo; Zhao, Guijie; Huang, Gang; Wang, Pengfei; Yan, Bangliang


    The authors present results for El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and East Asian-western North Pacific climate variability simulated in a new version high-resolution coupled model (ICM.V2) developed at the Center for Monsoon System Research of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (CMSR, IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences. The analyses are based on the last 100-year output of a 1000-year simulation. Results are compared to an earlier version of the same coupled model (ICM.V1), reanalysis, and observations. The two versions of ICM have similar physics but different atmospheric resolution. The simulated climatological mean states show marked improvement over many regions, especially the tropics in ICM.V2 compared to those in ICM.V1. The common bias in the cold tongue has reduced, and the warm biases along the ocean boundaries have improved as well. With improved simulation of ENSO, including its period and strength, the ENSO-related western North Pacific summer climate variability becomes more realistic compared to the observations. The simulated East Asian summer monsoon anomalies in the El Niño decaying summer are substantially more realistic in ICM.V2, which might be related to a better simulation of the Indo-Pacific Ocean capacitor (IPOC) effect and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO).

  2. Improved predictability of droughts over southern Africa using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index and ENSO (United States)

    Manatsa, Desmond; Mushore, Terrence; Lenouo, Andre


    The provision of timely and reliable climate information on which to base management decisions remains a critical component in drought planning for southern Africa. In this observational study, we have not only proposed a forecasting scheme which caters for timeliness and reliability but improved relevance of the climate information by using a novel drought index called the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), instead of the traditional precipitation only based index, the standardised precipitation index (SPI). The SPEI which includes temperature and other climatic factors in its construction has a more robust connection to ENSO than the SPI. Consequently, the developed ENSO-SPEI prediction scheme can provide quantitative information about the spatial extent and severity of predicted drought conditions in a way that reflects more closely the level of risk in the global warming context of the sub region. However, it is established that the ENSO significant regional impact is restricted only to the period December-March, implying a revisit to the traditional ENSO-based forecast scheme which essentially divides the rainfall season into the two periods, October to December and January to March. Although the prediction of ENSO events has increased with the refinement of numerical models, this work has demonstrated that the prediction of drought impacts related to ENSO is also a reality based only on observations. A large temporal lag is observed between the development of ENSO phenomena (typically in May of the previous year) and the identification of regional SPEI defined drought conditions. It has been shown that using the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum's (SARCOF) traditional 3-month averaged Nino 3.4 SST index (June to August) as a predictor does not have an added advantage over using only the May SST index values. In this regard, the extended lead time and improved skill demonstrated in this study could immensely benefit

  3. Extreme weather events. [ENSO (United States)

    Keppenne, Christian L.; Ghil, Michael


    Models that try to forecast the detailed geographical distribution of oceanic and atmospheric variables affected by the ENSO cycle are briefly discussed. Combinations of singular-spectrum analysis and the maximum entropy method that hold promise for predicting the ENSO cycle 2-3 yrs in advance are addressed.

  4. Collisions of fast clusters with solids and related phenomena

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brunelle, A.; Della-Negra, S.; Depauw, J.; Jacquet, D.; Le Beyec, Y.; Pautrat, M.; Schoppmann, Ch.


    Fast polyatomic projectiles allow to deposit very high energy densities (at the surface and in the bulk) well beyond that being possible with any single ion impact. As a result, new and unexpected phenomena are observed which will be discussed: large non linear emission of ions and cluster ions, very high sputtering yields, production of giant tracks and craters in various irradiated materials including metals. When entering the solid, the atomic constituents of the projectile remain in a close proximity for a certain distance, and induce collective effects. Secondary ion emission experiments, performed with various carbon cluster beams delivered by the Tandem accelerator in Orsay, aim to determine this depth of spatial correlation by probing these collective effects inside the solid. The influence of the proximity of the cluster constituents on some of their properties such as their charge state distributions inside the solid has been studied. (author). 28 refs.

  5. Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation explains ENSO climatic resonances (United States)

    Bruun, John T.; Allen, J. Icarus; Smyth, Timothy J.


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) nonlinear oscillator phenomenon has a far reaching influence on the climate and human activities. The up to 10 year quasi-period cycle of the El Niño and subsequent La Niña is known to be dominated in the tropics by nonlinear physical interaction of wind with the equatorial waveguide in the Pacific. Long-term cyclic phenomena do not feature in the current theory of the ENSO process. We update the theory by assessing low (>10 years) and high (type="synopsis">type="main">Plain Language SummaryThe Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) nonlinear oscillator phenomenon has a far reaching influence on the climate and our human activities. This work can help predict both long-term and short-term future ENSO events and to assess the risk of future climate hysteresis changes: is the elastic band that regulates the ENSO climate breaking? We update the current theory of the ENSO process with a sophisticated analysis approach (Dominant Frequency State Analysis) to include long-term oscillations (up to 200 years) as well as tropical and extratropical interaction dynamics. The analysis uses instrumental and paleoproxy data records in combination with theoretical models of ENSO. This fundamental result that shows the ENSO phenomenon has a stable tropical Pacific attractor with El Niño and La Niña phases, tropical and extratropical coupling and an intermittency or longer-term form of chaos. We call this attractor the Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation as the phenomenon is measurable in the Southern Oscillation. We predict future ENSO states based on a stable hysteresis scenario of short-term and long-term ENSO oscillations over the next century.

  6. The Relation between Cognitive Development and Anxiety Phenomena in Children (United States)

    Broeren, Suzanne; Muris, Peter


    We examined the relation between cognitive development and fear, anxiety, and behavioral inhibition in a non-clinical sample of 226 Dutch children aged 4-9 years. To assess cognitive development, children were tested with Piagetian conservation tasks and a Theory-of-Mind (TOM) test. Fears were measured by means of a self-report scale completed by…

  7. The relation between cognitive development and anxiety phenomena in children.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.M.L. Broeren (Suzanne); P.E.H.M. Muris (Peter)


    textabstractWe examined the relation between cognitive development and fear, anxiety, and behavioral inhibition in a non-clinical sample of 226 Dutch children aged 4–9 years. To assess cognitive development, children were tested with Piagetian conservation tasks and a Theory-of-Mind (TOM) test.

  8. Migraine aura and related phenomena: beyond scotomata and scintillations (United States)

    Vincent, MB; Hadjikhani, N


    Migraine affects the cortical physiology and may induce dysfunction both ictally and interictally. Although visual symptoms predominate during aura, other contiguous cortical areas related to less impressive symptoms are also impaired in migraine. Answers from 72.2% migraine with aura and 48.6% of migraine without aura patients on human faces and objects recognition, colour perception, proper names recalling and memory in general showed dysfunctions suggestive of prosopagnosia, dyschromatopsia, ideational apraxia, alien hand syndrome, proper name anomia or aphasia, varying in duration and severity. Symptoms frequently occurred in a successively building-up pattern fitting with the geographical distribution of the various cortical functions. When specifically inquired, migraineurs reveal less evident symptoms that are not usually considered during routine examination. Spreading depression most likely underlies the aura symptoms progression. Interictal involvement indicates that MWA and MWoA are not completely silent outside attacks, and that both subforms of migraine may share common mechanisms. PMID:17944958


    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    CARAMELLA, C.; FERRARI, F.; RONCHI, M.; Smilde, A. K.


    Two phenomena have frequently been related to tablet disintegration: water uptake and disintegrating force development. The combination of these two measures allowed a step forward to understanding disintegration mechanisms. In the present work, multiple linear regression analysis was used to relate

  10. Tree growth response to ENSO in Durango, Mexico (United States)

    Pompa-García, Marin; Miranda-Aragón, Liliana; Aguirre-Salado, Carlos Arturo


    The dynamics of forest ecosystems worldwide have been driven largely by climatic teleconnections. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest interannual variation of the Earth's climate, affecting the regional climatic regime. These teleconnections may impact plant phenology, growth rate, forest extent, and other gradual changes in forest ecosystems. The objective of this study was to investigate how Pinus cooperi populations face the influence of ENSO and regional microclimates in five ecozones in northwestern Mexico. Using standard dendrochronological techniques, tree-ring chronologies (TRI) were generated. TRI, ENSO, and climate relationships were correlated from 1950-2010. Additionally, multiple regressions were conducted in order to detect those ENSO months with direct relations in TRI ( p Mexico and radial growth of P. cooperi populations has been driven largely by positive ENSO values (El Niño episodes).

  11. New Methodology of ENSO Forecast (United States)

    Feigin, A. M.; Gavrilov, A.; Mukhin, D.; Loskutov, E.; Seleznev, A.


    We describe methodology of ENSO forecast based on data-driven construction of evolution operator of underlying climate sub-system. The methodology is composed of two key algorithms: (i) space-distributed data preparation aiming to reduce data dimensionality with minimal loss of information about system's dynamics, and (ii) construction of operator that reproduces evolution of the system in reduced data space. The first algorithm combines several known data preprocessing techniques: decomposition via empirical orthogonal function basis, its spatiotemporal generalization as well as singular value decomposition techniques. The second algorithm supposes construction of evolution operator in the form of random dynamical system realized as nonlinear random mapping; the last is parameterized by artificial neural networks. General Bayesian approach is applied for mutual searching optimal parameters of both algorithms: optimal dimensionality of reduced data space and optimal complexity of the evolution operator. Abilities of suggested methodology will be demonstrated via reproduction and forecast of different ENSO related indexes including comparison of prediction skill of new methodology with power of other existing techniques. This research was supported by the Government of the Russian Federation (Agreement No.14.Z50.31.0033 with the Institute of Applied Physics RAS).

  12. Influence of ENSO on the Pacific decadal oscillation in CMIP models (United States)

    Nidheesh, A. G.; Lengaigne, Matthieu; Vialard, Jérôme; Izumo, Takeshi; Unnikrishnan, A. S.; Cassou, Christophe


    Emerging decadal climate predictions call for an assessment of decadal climate variability in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) database. In this paper, we evaluate the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in 10 control simulations from the CMIP3 and 22 from the CMIP5 database. All models overestimate the time lag between ENSO forcing and the PDO response. While half of the models exhibit ENSO-PDO correlation which is close to that in observation (>0.5) when the time lag is accounted for, the rest of the models underestimate this relationship. Models with stronger ENSO-PDO correlation tend to exhibit larger PDO-related signals in the equatorial and south Pacific, highlighting the key role of ENSO teleconnection in setting the inter-hemispheric Pacific pattern of the PDO. The strength of the ENSO-PDO relationship is related to both ENSO amplitude and strength of ENSO teleconnection to the North Pacific sea-level pressure variability in the Aleutian Low region. The shape of the PDO spectrum is consistent with that predicted from a combination of direct ENSO forcing, atmospheric stochastic forcing over the North Pacific and the re-emergence process in 27 models out of 32. Given the essential role of ENSO in shaping the Pacific decadal variability, models displaying realistic ENSO amplitude and teleconnections should be preferentially used to perform decadal prediction experiments.

  13. Spin-related transport phenomena in HgTe-based quantum well structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koenig, Markus


    Within the scope of this thesis, spin related transport phenomena have been investigated in HgTe/Hg{sub 0.3}Cd{sub 0.7}Te quantum well structures. In our experiments, the existence of the quantum spin Hall (QSH) state was successfully demonstrated for the first time and the presented results provide clear evidence for the charge transport properties of the QSH state. Our experiments provide the first direct observation of the Aharonov-Casher (AC) effect in semiconductor structures. In conclusion, HgTe quantum well structures have proven to be an excellent template for studying spin-related transport phenomena: The QSH relies on the peculiar band structure of the material and the existence of both the spin Hall effect and the AC effect is a consequence of the substantial spin-orbit interaction. (orig.)

  14. Primate empathy: three factors and their combinations for empathy-related phenomena. (United States)

    Yamamoto, Shinya


    Empathy as a research topic is receiving increasing attention, although there seems some confusion on the definition of empathy across different fields. Frans de Waal (de Waal FBM. Putting the altruism back into altruism: the evolution of empathy. Annu Rev Psychol 2008, 59:279-300. doi:10.1146/annurev.psych.59.103006.093625) used empathy as an umbrella term and proposed a comprehensive model for the evolution of empathy with some of its basic elements in nonhuman animals. In de Waal's model, empathy consists of several layers distinguished by required cognitive levels; the perception-action mechanism plays the core role for connecting ourself and others. Then, human-like empathy such as perspective-taking develops in outer layers according to cognitive sophistication, leading to prosocial acts such as targeted helping. I agree that animals demonstrate many empathy-related phenomena; however, the species differences and the level of cognitive sophistication of the phenomena might be interpreted in another way than this simple linearly developing model. Our recent studies with chimpanzees showed that their perspective-taking ability does not necessarily lead to proactive helping behavior. Herein, as a springboard for further studies, I reorganize the empathy-related phenomena by proposing a combination model instead of the linear development model. This combination model is composed of three organizing factors: matching with others, understanding of others, and prosociality. With these three factors and their combinations, most empathy-related matters can be categorized and mapped to appropriate context; this may be a good first step to discuss the evolution of empathy in relation to the neural connections in human and nonhuman animal brains. I would like to propose further comparative studies, especially from the viewpoint of Homo-Pan (chimpanzee and bonobo) comparison. WIREs Cogn Sci 2017, 8:e1431. doi: 10.1002/wcs.1431 For further resources related to this article

  15. A Review of Low Frequency Electromagnetic Wave Phenomena Related to Tropospheric-Ionospheric Coupling Mechanisms (United States)

    Simoes, Fernando; Pfaff, Robert; Berthelier, Jean-Jacques; Klenzing, Jeffrey


    Investigation of coupling mechanisms between the troposphere and the ionosphere requires a multidisciplinary approach involving several branches of atmospheric sciences, from meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and fulminology to aeronomy, plasma physics, and space weather. In this work, we review low frequency electromagnetic wave propagation in the Earth-ionosphere cavity from a troposphere-ionosphere coupling perspective. We discuss electromagnetic wave generation, propagation, and resonance phenomena, considering atmospheric, ionospheric and magnetospheric sources, from lightning and transient luminous events at low altitude to Alfven waves and particle precipitation related to solar and magnetospheric processes. We review in situ ionospheric processes as well as surface and space weather phenomena that drive troposphere-ionosphere dynamics. Effects of aerosols, water vapor distribution, thermodynamic parameters, and cloud charge separation and electrification processes on atmospheric electricity and electromagnetic waves are reviewed. We also briefly revisit ionospheric irregularities such as spread-F and explosive spread-F, sporadic-E, traveling ionospheric disturbances, Trimpi effect, and hiss and plasma turbulence. Regarding the role of the lower boundary of the cavity, we review transient surface phenomena, including seismic activity, earthquakes, volcanic processes and dust electrification. The role of surface and atmospheric gravity waves in ionospheric dynamics is also briefly addressed. We summarize analytical and numerical tools and techniques to model low frequency electromagnetic wave propagation and solving inverse problems and summarize in a final section a few challenging subjects that are important for a better understanding of tropospheric-ionospheric coupling mechanisms.

  16. ENSO nonlinearity in a warming climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boucharel, J. [Universite de Toulouse; UPS (OMP-PCA), LEGOS, Toulouse (France); University of Hawai' i at Manoa, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, Department of Meteorology, Honolulu, HI (United States); Dewitte, B.; Penhoat, Y. du [Universite de Toulouse; UPS (OMP-PCA), LEGOS, Toulouse (France); IRD, LEGOS, Toulouse (France); Garel, B. [Universite de Toulouse, INP-ENSEEIHT, Institut de Mathematiques de Toulouse (UPS), Toulouse (France); Yeh, S.W. [Hanyang University, Department of Environmental Marine Science, Ansan (Korea, Republic of); Kug, J.S. [Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute, Ansan (Korea, Republic of)


    The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known as the strongest natural inter-annual climate signal, having widespread consequences on the global weather, climate, ecology and even on societies. Understanding ENSO variations in a changing climate is therefore of primordial interest to both the climate community and policy makers. In this study, we focus on the change in ENSO nonlinearity due to climate change. We first analysed high statistical moments of observed Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) timeseries of the tropical Pacific based on the measurement of the tails of their Probability Density Function (PDF). This allows defining relevant metrics for the change in nonlinearity observed over the last century. Based on these metrics, a zonal ''see-saw'' (oscillation) in nonlinearity patterns is highlighted that is associated with the change in El Nino characteristics observed in recent years. Taking advantage of the IPCC database and the different projection scenarios, it is showed that changes in El Nino statistics (or ''flavour'') from a present-day climate to a warmer climate are associated with a significant change in nonlinearity patterns. In particular, in the twentieth century climate, the ''conventional'' eastern Pacific El Nino relates more to changes in nonlinearity than to changes in mean state whereas the central Pacific El Nino (or Modoki El Nino) is more sensitive to changes in mean state than to changes in nonlinearity. An opposite behaviour is found in a warmer climate, namely the decreasing nonlinearity in the eastern Pacific tends to make El Nino less frequent but more sensitive to mean state, whereas the increasing nonlinearity in the west tends to trigger Central Pacific El Nino more frequently. This suggests that the change in ENSO statistics due to climate change might result from changes in the zonal contrast of nonlinearity characteristics across the tropical Pacific. (orig.)

  17. Importance of convective parameterization in ENSO predictions (United States)

    Zhu, Jieshun; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Huang, Bohua; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.


    This letter explored the influence of atmospheric convection scheme on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions using a set of hindcast experiments. Specifically, a low-resolution version of the Climate Forecast System version 2 is used for 12 month hindcasts starting from each April during 1982-2011. The hindcast experiments are repeated with three atmospheric convection schemes. All three hindcasts apply the identical initialization with ocean initial conditions taken from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and atmosphere/land initial states from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Assessments indicate a substantial sensitivity of the sea surface temperature prediction skill to the different convection schemes, particularly over the eastern tropical Pacific. For the Niño 3.4 index, the anomaly correlation skill can differ by 0.1-0.2 at lead times longer than 2 months. Long-term simulations are further conducted with the three convection schemes to understand the differences in prediction skill. By conducting heat budget analyses for the mixed-layer temperature anomalies, it is suggested that the convection scheme having the highest skill simulates stronger and more realistic coupled feedbacks related to ENSO. Particularly, the strength of the Ekman pumping feedback is better represented, which is traced to more realistic simulation of surface wind stress. Our results imply that improving the mean state simulations in coupled (ocean-atmosphere) general circulation model (e.g., ameliorating the Intertropical Convergence Zone simulation) might further improve our ENSO prediction capability.

  18. Greening of the Sahara suppressed ENSO activity during the mid-Holocene (United States)

    Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Zhang, Qiong; Muschitiello, Francesco; Lu, Zhengyao; Chafik, Léon; Niedermeyer, Eva M.; Stager, J. Curt; Cobb, Kim M.; Liu, Zhengyu


    The evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the Holocene remains uncertain. In particular, a host of new paleoclimate records suggest that ENSO internal variability or other external forcings may have dwarfed the fairly modest ENSO response to precessional insolation changes simulated in climate models. Here, using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulations, we show that accounting for a vegetated and less dusty Sahara during the mid-Holocene relative to preindustrial climate can reduce ENSO variability by 25%, more than twice the decrease obtained using orbital forcing alone. We identify changes in tropical Atlantic mean state and variability caused by the momentous strengthening of the West Africa Monsoon (WAM) as critical factors in amplifying ENSO's response to insolation forcing through changes in the Walker circulation. Our results thus suggest that potential changes in the WAM due to anthropogenic warming may influence ENSO variability in the future as well.

  19. Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM

    KAUST Repository

    Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar


    ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (‘SPEEDY’). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air–sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant

  20. High-Dimensional Disorder-Driven Phenomena in Weyl Semimetals, Semiconductors and Related Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Syzranov, S V


    It is commonly believed that a non-interacting disordered electronic system can undergo only the Anderson metal-insulator transition. It has been suggested, however, that a broad class of systems can display disorder-driven transitions distinct from Anderson localisation that have manifestations in the disorder-averaged density of states, conductivity and other observables. Such transitions have received particular attention in the context of recently discovered 3D Weyl and Dirac materials but have also been predicted in cold-atom systems with long-range interactions, quantum kicked rotors and all sufficiently high-dimensional systems. Moreover, such systems exhibit unconventional behaviour of Lifshitz tails, energy-level statistics and ballistic-transport properties. Here we review recent progress and the status of results on non-Anderson disorder-driven transitions and related phenomena.

  1. Precipitation-Based ENSO Indices (United States)

    Adler, Robert; Curtis, Scott


    In this study gridded observed precipitation data sets are used to construct rainfall-based ENSO indices. The monthly El Nino and La Nina Indices (EI and LI) measure the steepest zonal gradient of precipitation anomalies between the equatorial Pacific and the Maritime Continent. This is accomplished by spatially averaging precipitation anomalies using a spatial boxcar filter, finding the maximum and minimum averages within a Pacific and Maritime Continent domain for each month, and taking differences. EI and LI can be examined separately or combined to produce one ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI). ESPI is well correlated with traditional sea surface temperature and pressure indices, leading Nino 3.4. One advantage precipitation indices have over more conventional indices, is describing the strength and position of the Walker circulation. Examples are given of tracking the impact of ENSO events on the tropical precipitation fields.

  2. ENSO in a warming world: interannual climate variability in the early Miocene Southern Hemisphere (United States)

    Fox, Bethany; Wilson, Gary; Lee, Daphne


    The El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant source of interannual variability in the modern-day climate system. ENSO is a quasi-periodic cycle with a recurrence interval of 2-8 years. A major question in modern climatology is how ENSO will respond to increased climatic warmth. ENSO-like (2-8 year) cycles have been detected in many palaeoclimate records for the Holocene. However, the temporal resolution of pre-Quaternary palaeoclimate archives is generally too coarse to investigate ENSO-scale variability. We present a 100-kyr record of ENSO-like variability during the second half of the Oligocene/Miocene Mi-1 event, a period of increasing global temperatures and Antarctic deglaciation (~23.032-2.93 Ma). This record is drawn from an annually laminated lacustrine diatomite from southern New Zealand, a region strongly affected by ENSO in the present day. The diatomite consists of seasonal alternations of light (diatom bloom) and dark (low diatom productivity) layers. Each light-dark couplet represents one year's sedimentation. Light-dark couplet thickness is characterised by ENSO-scale variability. We use high-resolution (sub-annual) measurements of colour spectra to detect couplet thickness variability. Wavelet analysis indicates that absolute values are modulated by orbital cycles. However, when orbital effects are taken into account, ENSO-like variability occurs throughout the entire depositional period, with no clear increase or reduction in relation to Antarctic deglaciation and increasing global warmth.

  3. ENSO floods on river ecosystems: catastrophes or myths?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neiff, J.J. [CECOAL, Corrientes (Argentina). Littoral Applied Ecology Centre; Mendiondo, E.M. [Kassel Univ. (Germany). Hydraulic Structures and Water-Resources Engineering; Univ. Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Inst. de Pesquisas Hidraulicas; Depettris, C.A. [Northeast National Univ.-UNNE, Chaco (Argentina). Dept. Hydraulics


    Very extreme floods ranging from 38000 to 62000 m{sup 3}s{sup -1}, draining a 2 million km{sup 2} catchment area and severe inundations downstream of the Paraguay-Parana confluence in South America are related to the El Nino Southern Oscillation -ENSO-. This paper links ENSO floods to natural ecosystems, e.g. the flood plain patchiness, the biodiversity and the ecosystem structure. River behaviour may be described with parameters, such as frequency, intensity, tension, regularity, amplitude and seasonality. According to the 20th century river time series, noteworthy fluvial changes are related to extreme floods through actual time. Nevertheless, the ecosystem recovers itself by means of resilience and is here assessed by remote sensing. This lack of understanding is at the origin of enormous economic losses in ecosystems impacted by ENSO floods during the 1983-98 period going from catastrophes to myths. Although flood plain ecosystems are often well adapted to ENSO floods, the risks of the latter must be properly addressed. Therefore, adaptations to land use are discussed, demanding a change of attitude of the society to cope with river behaviour and to put the ENSO flood myth into question. (orig.)

  4. Phantom limb related phenomena and their rehabilitation after lower limb amputation. (United States)

    Casale, R; Alaa, L; Mallick, M; Ring, H


    This paper reviewed the various hypotheses on phantom limb and phantom limb pain as well as all the related rehabilitation techniques to control these symptoms. The uncertainty in their pathophysiology strongly affects all the rehabilitation approaches so far used, as no single parameter has been found to predict or control phantom limb pain as well as no single factor can be quoted as an indicator of rehabilitation success for lower limb amputation. Within a comprehensive rehabilitation plan, behavioral interventions, stimulation techniques, feedback, physical therapies designed to possibly reverse the maladaptive memory traces and enhance its extinction have been described. Although substantially not clinically useful, pharmacological and surgical interventions also have been briefly considered. A reassessment of the actual strategies used is suggested with a role for rehabilitation not only after the amputation but also in the pre-emptive control of the pre-existing painful condition. In this process, rehabilitation should take into account many parameters, not always related to the traditional role of rehabilitation. Pain assessment before and after amputation, its natural history and clinical picture such as its quality, variations, level of the amputation, dominance, time interval between amputation and rehabilitation, as well as all the other phantom limb related phenomena should be considered and treated.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agnes Schutz de Oliveira


    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: Bullying is a devastating phenomenon that can affect the adolescent’s self-esteem and mental health. Generally occurs in school environment when the adolescent is more susceptible or vulnerable to verbal or moral aggressions that cause to them anguish and pain, meaning as a status of social exclusion. Most of time, health problems as anorexia, bulimia, depression, anxiety and also the suicide, appears. By the way, nurses are able to prevent injuries to various problems, and also concerns about this traumatic incident in adolescence. The aim of this study was to identify feelings that can be related to” bullying “in adolescent students in 5th to 8th classes. It is a descriptive research by qualitative approach, developed in a religious setting state school. Data was collected by taped interviews and, after transcribed, submitted to thematic analysis. The results showed that feelings related to this phenomena are multiple and varied, being categorized as positive aspects character, negative aspects character and necessary aspects character. KEY WORDS: School Health; Pediatric Nursing; Teen Health; Violence.

  6. Dopants Diffusion in Silicon during Molecular Oxygen/nitrogen Trifluoride Oxidation and Related Phenomena (United States)

    Kim, U. S.


    To date, chlorine has been used as useful additives in silicon oxidation. However, rapid scaling of device dimensions motivates the development of a new dielectric layer or modification of the silicon dioxide itself. More recently, chemically enhanced thermal oxidation by the use of fluorine containing species has been introduced to verify the potential of fluorine in the silicon oxidation process. In this study, gaseous nitrogen trifluoride (NF _3) was selected as the fluorine oxidizing source based on ease of use and was compared with the dichlorofluoroethane (C_2H _3Cl_2F) source. Two different kinds of boron marker samples were prepared and oxidized in O_2/NF_3 ambient for the comparison of surface vs bulk oxidation enhanced/retarded diffusion (OED/ORD). The phosphorus, arsenic and antimony diffusion in silicon during fluorine oxidation has been studied using the various covering layers such as SiO_2, Si_3 N_4, and SiO_2 + Si_3N_4 layers. The oxidation related phenomena, i.e. enhanced silicon and silicon nitride oxidation in fluorine ambient were studied and correlated with the point defect balance at the oxidizing interface. The results of this investigation were discussed with special emphasis on the effect of fluorine on enhanced oxidation and dopant diffusion.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available Cumulonimbus (Cb is a vertically developed cloud, associated with some several weather phenomena, such as hail. Yearly (and in some cases monthly meteorological data from the period 1971-2005 registered at the Târgu-Mureş weather station (lat. 46°32’, lon. 24°32’, elevation 308 m were studied. However, Altocumulus (relative frequency = 25% and Stratocumulus (14% are the most frequently clouds, in summer the presence of Cumulonimbus cloud is remarkable (18%. Mann-Kendall trend analysis and Sen’s slope estimate (Q show positive and statistically significant trend as regards number of Cumulonimbus clouds (Q=6.458, number of days with rain shower (Q=1.000, number of days with snow shower (Q=0.250 and a decreasing, statistically significant trend in the case of the number of days with hail (Q=-0.043 and number of days with thunderstorm (Q=-0.211. Moreover, monthly number of Cb also indicate an increasing, statistically significant trend in all 12 cases. The Pearson correlation coefficient (r is statistically significant between the number of Cb and the number of days with rain shower (r=0.827 respectively the number of Cb and the number of days with rain shower (r=0.541. Daily amount of precipitations exceeded 30 mm were registered mainly in summer. They are almost related to Cumulonimbus clouds and rain showers, and they occur most frequently during the presence of TRM (Trough over Central Europe, WZ (Cyclonic Westerly and BM (Zonal Ridge across Central Europe synoptic situations (Hess-Brezowsky classification.

  8. Characterizing unforced multi-decadal variability of ENSO: a case study with the GFDL CM2.1 coupled GCM (United States)

    Atwood, A. R.; Battisti, D. S.; Wittenberg, A. T.; Roberts, W. H. G.; Vimont, D. J.


    Large multi-decadal fluctuations of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability simulated in a 4000-year pre-industrial control run of GFDL CM2.1 have received considerable attention due to implications for constraining the causes of past and future changes in ENSO. We evaluated the mechanisms of this low-frequency ENSO modulation through analysis of the extreme epochs of CM2.1 as well as through the use of a linearized intermediate-complexity model of the tropical Pacific, which produces reasonable emulations of observed ENSO variability. We demonstrate that the low-frequency ENSO modulation can be represented by the simplest model of a linear, stationary process, even in the highly nonlinear CM2.1. These results indicate that CM2.1's ENSO modulation is driven by transient processes that operate at interannual or shorter time scales. Nonlinearities and/or multiplicative noise in CM2.1 likely exaggerate the ENSO modulation by contributing to the overly active ENSO variability. In contrast, simulations with the linear model suggest that intrinsically-generated tropical Pacific decadal mean state changes do not contribute to the extreme-ENSO epochs in CM2.1. Rather, these decadal mean state changes actually serve to damp the intrinsically-generated ENSO modulation, primarily by stabilizing the ENSO mode during strong-ENSO epochs. Like most coupled General Circulation Models, CM2.1 suffers from large biases in its ENSO simulation, including ENSO variance that is nearly twice that seen in the last 50 years of observations. We find that CM2.1's overly strong ENSO variance directly contributes to its strong multi-decadal modulation through broadening the distribution of epochal variance, which increases like the square of the long-term variance. These results suggest that the true spectrum of unforced ENSO modulation is likely substantially narrower than that in CM2.1. However, relative changes in ENSO modulation are similar between CM2.1, the linear model tuned to

  9. The influence of large-scale climate phenomena on precipitation in the Ordos Basin, China (United States)

    Zhong, Yu; Lei, Liyuan; Liu, Youcun; Hao, Yonghong; Zou, Chris; Zhan, Hongbin


    Large-scale atmospheric circulations significantly affect regional precipitation patterns. However, it is not well known whether and how these phenomena affect regional precipitation distribution in northern China. This paper reported the individual and coupled effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian summer monsoon (ISM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on annual precipitation for the Ordos Basin, an arid and semi-arid basin, currently with major industries of coal, fossil oil, natural gas, and halite in north central China. Our results showed that ENSO and ISM exerted substantial impact on annual precipitation while the impact of PDO and AMO was relatively limited. There were 24 and 15 out of 33 stations showing significant differences ( p resource planning and disaster management for the Ordos Basin.

  10. Strong commitment to traditional Protestant religious beliefs is negatively related to beliefs in paranormal phenomena. (United States)

    Hillstrom, E L; Strachan, M


    Numerous studies have yielded small, negative correlations between measures of paranormal and "traditional religious beliefs". This may partly reflect opinions of Christians in the samples who take biblical sanctions against many "paranormal" activities seriously. To test this, 391 college students (270 women and 121 men) rated their beliefs in various paranormal phenomena and were classified as Believers, Nominal Believers, and Nonbelievers on the strength of their self-rated commitment to key biblical (particularly Protestant) doctrines. As predicted, Believers were significantly less likely than Nominal Believers or Nonbelievers to endorse reincarnation, contact with the dead, UFOs, telepathy, prophecy, psychokinesis, or healing, while the beliefs of Nominal Believers were similar to those of Nonbelievers. Substantial percentages of Nominal and Nonbelievers (30-50%) indicated at least moderate acceptance of the paranormal phenomena surveyed.

  11. Paranormal phenomena (United States)

    Gaina, Alex


    Critical analysis is given of some paranormal phenomena events (UFO, healers, psychokinesis (telekinesis))reported in Moldova. It is argued that correct analysis of paranormal phenomena should be made in the framework of electromagnetism.

  12. Air-temperature variations and ENSO effects in Indonesia, the Philippines and El Salvador. ENSO patterns and changes from 1866-1993 (United States)

    Harger, J. R. E.

    The major features in development of the "El Nino-Southern Oscillation" (ENSO) involve oscillation of the Pacific ocean-atmosphere in an essentially unpredictable (chaotic) fashion. The system moves between extremes of the so-called "warm events" lasting one or two years and involving movement of warm sea water from the western Pacific along the equator to impact on the west coast of the American continent and "cold-events" associated with easterly trade-wind-induced flows of colder water from the eastern Pacific towards the west. Historical data indicate that ENSO years as experienced by the Island of Java are either much warmer than non-ENSO years or only slightly, if at all, warmer than normal (non-ENSO) years. Hot-dry years within the ENSO warm event cycle are almost always followed by cooler wet years and vice versa. This pattern also extends to include the year immediately following the terminal year of an ENSO warm event set. The initial year of an ENSO warm event set may be either hot with a long dry season or relatively cool (nearer to the temperature of a non-ENSO year) and having a short dry season. In recent years, since 1950, of the 9 ENSO warm events, the initial year tends to have been hot and dry for 6 (1951, 1957, 1963, 1972, 1982, 1991) and neutral or cool and wet for 3 (1968, 1976, 1986). An area of 88,000 ha burned in 1991 (Jakarta Post 30 November 1991) largely in Kalimantan in association with the 1991-1992 ENSO event, an extensive pall of smoke developed over Kalimantan, Singapore and Malaysia during September-October of 1991. Surface vegetation-based fires continued to burn in East Kalimantan as of 29 April 1992 and extended into the 1992 dry season, in response to the ENSO conditions carrying forward from 1991. The increasing annual trend in air-temperature exhibited by the mean monthly values over the period 1866-1993, for the Jakarta and the Semarang data taken together is 1.64°C (0.0132°C per year from 25.771 to 27.409°C). The major

  13. ENSO teleconnections in the southern hemisphere: A climate network view (United States)

    Arizmendi, Fernando; Barreiro, Marcelo


    Using functional network analysis, we study the seasonality of atmospheric connectivity and its interannual variability depending on the different phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. We find a strong variability of the connectivity on seasonal and interannual time scales both in the tropical and extratropical regions. In particular, there are significant changes in the southern hemisphere extratropical atmospheric connectivity during austral spring within the different stages of ENSO: We find that the connectivity patterns due to stationary Rossby waves differ during El Niño and La Niña, showing a very clear wave train originating close to Australia in the former case, as opposed to La Niña that seems to generate a wave train from the central Pacific. An attempt to understand these differences in terms of changes in the frequency of intraseasonal weather regimes cannot fully explain the differences in connectivity, even though we found the prevalence of different intraseasonal regimes in each phase of ENSO. We conclude that the differential response to extreme phases of ENSO during austral springtime is related to the forcing of waves of different tropical origins.

  14. ENSO impacts on flood risk at the global scale (United States)

    Ward, Philip; Dettinger, Michael; Jongman, Brenden; Kummu, Matti; Winsemius, Hessel


    We present the impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on society and the economy, via relationships between ENSO and the hydrological cycle. We also discuss ways in which this knowledge can be used in disaster risk management and risk reduction. This contribution provides the most recent results of an ongoing 4-year collaborative research initiative to assess and map the impacts of large scale interannual climate variability on flood hazard and risk at the global scale. We have examined anomalies in flood risk between ENSO phases, whereby flood risk is expressed in terms of indicators such as: annual expected damage; annual expected affected population; annual expected affected Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We show that large anomalies in flood risk occur during El Niño or La Niña years in basins covering large parts of the Earth's surface. These anomalies reach statistical significance river basins covering almost two-thirds of the Earth's surface. Particularly strong anomalies exist in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially La Niña anomalies), and parts of South America. We relate these anomalies to possible causal relationships between ENSO and flood hazard, using both modelled and observed data on flood occurrence and extremity. The implications for flood risk management are many-fold. In those regions where disaster risk is strongly influenced by ENSO, the potential predictably of ENSO could be used to develop probabilistic flood risk projections with lead times up to several seasons. Such data could be used by the insurance industry in managing risk portfolios and by multinational companies for assessing the robustness of their supply chains to potential flood-related interruptions. Seasonal forecasts of ENSO influence of peak flows could also allow for improved flood early warning and regulation by dam operators, which could also reduce overall risks

  15. Eventos de tiempo severo inducidos por el ENSO en la temporada invernal cubana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    THE CUBAN WINTER SEASON. The Cuban winter season frames the dry season of the year in the country, in which, differently from summer tropical systems, severe weather phenomena are hardly on record. However, in winter seasons under ENSO influence, meteorological systems are anomalously activated in latitudes farther south than normal. Severe weather events lasting from 24 to 48 hours are then relatively frequent and accounts for the formation of severe squall lines, intense rains, tornadoes, hail and coastal floods. These events cause death and great destruction, mainly in agriculture and the sugar cane industry. Climatologists recognize ENSO as the major cause of interannual climatic variability on the Planet. From this point of view, they describe and forecast ENSO seasonal effects as positive or negative deviations from normal meteorological variables such as precipitation and temperature. Nevertheless, a more detailed approach can only be achieved from the study of ENSO inducing synoptic systems, which cause severe weather. This becomes entirely necessary to design an Early Warning System for the interests of Civil Defense and economy. In the present paper the role of Subtropical Jet Stream is identified as the prime cause for the formation of severe weather events in Cuba. Besides, from the study of winter seasons with moderate or strong ENSO presence since 1957-58 through 1996-97, several synoptic patterns were obtained from surface and upper air charts, as well as their association with ENSO inducing severe weather events. Examples of impact of these events in the Country are shown. Using these techniques, an early forecast system used by Civil Defense was created.

  16. Luminous phenomena and electromagnetic VHF wave emission originated from earthquake-related radon exhalation (United States)

    Seki, A.; Tobo, I.; Omori, Y.; Muto, J.; Nagahama, H.


    Anomalous luminous phenomena and electromagnetic wave emission before or during earthquakes have been reported (e.g., the 1965 Matsushiro earthquake swarm). However, their mechanism is still unsolved, in spite of many models for these phenomena. Here, we propose a new model about luminous phenomena and electromagnetic wave emission during earthquake by focusing on atmospheric radon (Rn-222) and its daughter nuclides (Po-218 and Po-214). Rn-222, Po-218 and Po-214 are alpha emitters, and these alpha particles ionize atmospheric molecules. A light emission phenomenon, called 'the air luminescence', is caused by de-excitation of the ionized molecules of atmospheric nitrogen due to electron impact ionization from alpha particles. The de-excitation is from the second positive system of neutral nitrogen molecules and the first negative system of nitrogen molecule ion. Wavelengths of lights by these transitions include the visible light wavelength. So based on this mechanism, we proposed a new luminous phenomenon model before or during earthquake: 1. The concentration of atmospheric radon and its daughter nuclides increase anomalously before or during earthquakes, 2. Nitrogen molecules and their ions are excited by alpha particles emitted from Rn-222, Po-218 and Po-214, and air luminescence is generated by their de-excitation. Similarly, electromagnetic VHF wave emission can be explained by ionizing effect of radon and its daughter nuclides. Boyarchuk et al. (2005) proposed a model that electromagnetic VHF wave emission is originated when excited state of neutral clusters changes. Radon gas ionizes atmosphere and forms positively and negatively charged heavy particles. The process of ion hydration in ordinary air can be determined by the formation of complex chemically active structures of the various types of ion radicals. As a result of the association of such hydration radical ions, a neutral cluster, which is dipole quasi-molecules, is formed. A neutral cluster

  17. A Study of Aircraft Fire Hazards Related to Natural Electrical Phenomena (United States)

    Kester, Frank L.; Gerstein, Melvin; Plumer, J. A.


    The problems of natural electrical phenomena as a fire hazard to aircraft are evaluated. Assessment of the hazard is made over the range of low level electrical discharges, such as static sparks, to high level discharges, such as lightning strikes to aircraft. In addition, some fundamental work is presented on the problem of flame propagation in aircraft fuel vent systems. This study consists of a laboratory investigation in five parts: (1) a study of the ignition energies and flame propagation rates of kerosene-air and JP-6-air foams, (2) a study of the rate of flame propagation of n-heptane, n-octane, n-nonane, and n-decane in aircraft vent ducts, (3) a study of the damage to aluminum, titanium, and stainless steel aircraft skin materials by lightning strikes, (4) a study of fuel ignition by lightning strikes to aircraft skins, and (5) a study of lightning induced flame propagation in an aircraft vent system.

  18. Measurement of gas-switching related diffusion phenomena in horizontal MOCVD reactors using biacetyl luminescence (United States)

    Visser, E. P.; Govers, C. A. M.; Giling, L. J.


    The fading of concentration profiles due to diffusion, occuring after gas source switching in MOCVD growth, was simulated by biacetyl luminescence experiments. In particular the influence of thermally induced memory cells on the concentration transients was investigated. Biacetyl molecules were used instead of macroscopic particles (for instance TiO 2) because not only can the flow patterns thus be visualized, but also a more realistic simulation of diffusion phenomena is obtained. It is shown that memory cells give rise to an increase of the residence times of gases inside the reactor. For typical MOCVD conditions, increases of several seconds were measured. The influence on interface sharpness of a GaAs/AlGaAs heterojunction is discussed. Residence times were recorded as a function of the most important hydrodynamic parameters in the MOCVD process, both at atmospheric pressure and at low pressure.

  19. Seasonality and Predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode: ENSO Forcing and Internal Variability (United States)

    Yang, Y.


    This study evaluates the relative contributions to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode of interannual variability from the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing and ocean-atmosphere feedbacks internal to the Indian Ocean. The ENSO forcing and internal variability is extracted by conducting a 10-member coupled simulation for 1950-2012 where sea surface temperature (SST) is restored to the observed anomalies over the tropical Pacific but interactive with the atmosphere over the rest of the world ocean. In these experiments, the ensemble mean is due to ENSO forcing and the inter-member difference arises from internal variability of the climate system independent of ENSO. These elements contribute one third and two thirds of the total IOD variance, respectively. Both types of IOD variability develop into an east-west dipole pattern due to Bjerknes feedback and peak in September-November. The ENSO forced and internal IOD modes differ in several important ways. The forced IOD mode develops in August with a broad meridional pattern, and eventually evolves into the Indian Ocean Basin mode; while the internal IOD mode grows earlier in June, is more confined to the equator and decays rapidly after October. The internal IOD mode is more skewed than the ENSO forced response. The destructive interference of ENSO forcing and internal variability can explain early-terminating IOD events, referred to IOD-like perturbations that fail to grow during boreal summer. Our results have implications for predictability. Internal variability, as represented by pre-season sea surface height anomalies off Sumatra, contributes to predictability considerably. Including this indicator of internal variability, together with ENSO, improves the predictability of IOD.

  20. Response of ENSO amplitude to global warming in CESM large ensemble: uncertainty due to internal variability (United States)

    Zheng, Xiao-Tong; Hui, Chang; Yeh, Sang-Wook


    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of variability in the coupled ocean-atmospheric system. Future projections of ENSO change under global warming are highly uncertain among models. In this study, the effect of internal variability on ENSO amplitude change in future climate projections is investigated based on a 40-member ensemble from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project. A large uncertainty is identified among ensemble members due to internal variability. The inter-member diversity is associated with a zonal dipole pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) change in the mean along the equator, which is similar to the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) in the unforced control simulation. The uncertainty in CESM-LE is comparable in magnitude to that among models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), suggesting the contribution of internal variability to the intermodel uncertainty in ENSO amplitude change. However, the causations between changes in ENSO amplitude and the mean state are distinct between CESM-LE and CMIP5 ensemble. The CESM-LE results indicate that a large ensemble of 15 members is needed to separate the relative contributions to ENSO amplitude change over the twenty-first century between forced response and internal variability.

  1. Phenological patterns of Spodoptera Guenée, 1852 (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is more affected by ENSO than seasonal factors and host plant availability in a Brazilian Savanna (United States)

    Piovesan, Mônica; Specht, Alexandre; Carneiro, Eduardo; Paula-Moraes, Silvana Vieira; Casagrande, Mirna Martins


    The identification of factors responsible for the population dynamics is fundamental for pest management, since losses can reach 18% of annual production. Besides regular seasonal environmental factors and crop managements, additional supra-annual meteorological phenomena can also affect population dynamics, although its relevance has been rarely investigated. Among crop pests, Spodoptera stands out due to its worldwide distribution, high degree of polyphagy, thus causing damages in several crops in the world. Aiming to distinguish the relevance of different factors shaping population dynamics of Spodoptera in an ecosystem constituted of dry and rainy seasons, the current study used circular statistics to identify phenological patterns and test if its population fluctuation is driven by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effect, seasonal meteorological parameters, and/or host plant availability. Samplings were done in an intercropping system, in the Brazilian Savanna, during the new moon cycles between July/2013 and June/2016. Species were recorded all year round, but demonstrated differently non-uniform distribution, being concentrated in different seasons of the year. Population fluctuations were mostly affected by the ENSO intensity, despite the contrasting seasonal meteorological variation or host plant availability in a 400-m radius. Studies involving the observation of supra-annual phenomena, although rare, reach similar conclusions in relation to Neotropical insect fauna. Therefore, it is paramount to have long-term sampling studies to obtain a more precise response of the pest populations towards the agroecosystem conditions.

  2. Integration of ENSO Signal Power Through Hydrological Processes in the Little River Watershed (United States)

    Keener, V. W.; Jones, J. W.; Bosch, D. D.; Cho, J.


    The relationship of the El-Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to hydrology is typically discussed in terms of the ability to separate significantly different hydrologic variable responses versus the anomaly that has taken place. Most of the work relating ENSO trends to proxy variables had been done on precipitation records until the mid 1990s, at which point increasing numbers of studies started to focus on ENSO relationships with streamflow as well as other environmental variables. The signals in streamflow are typically complex, representing the integration of both climatic, landscape, and anthropological responses that are able to strengthen the inherent ENSO signal in chaotic regional precipitation data. There is a need to identify climate non-stationarities related to ENSO and their links to watershed-scale outcomes. For risk-management in particular, inter-annual modes of climate variability and their seasonal expression are of interest. In this study, we analyze 36 years of historical monthly streamflow data from the Little River Watershed (LWR), a coastal plain ecosystem in Georgia, in conjunction with wavelet spectral analysis and modeling via the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Using both spectral and physical models allows us to identify the mechanism by which the ENSO signal power in surface and simulated groundwater flow is strengthened as compared to precipitation. The clear increase in the power of the inter-annual climate signal is demonstrated by shared patterns in water budget and exceedance curves, as well as in high ENSO related energy in the 95% significant wavelet spectra for each variable and the NINO 3.4 index. In the LRW, the power of the ENSO teleconnection is increased in both the observed and simulated stream flow through the mechanisms of groundwater flow and interflow, through confinement by a geological layer, the Hawthorn Formation. This non-intuitive relationship between ENSO signal strength and streamflow could prove to be

  3. Soft x-ray emission from clusters of galaxies and related phenomena

    CERN Document Server

    Mittaz, Jonathan


    Since the discovery of the cluster soft excess (CSE) over eight years ago, its properties and origin have been the subject of debate With the recent launch of new missions such as XMM-Newton and FUSE, we are beginning to answer some of the complex issues regarding the phenomenon This conference proceedings is an attempt to bring together the latest research results and covers both observational and theoretical work on the CSE and related topics One of the main topics is the possible relationship between the CSE and the warm-hot intergalactic medium (WHIM), which is believed to harbor 50% of the baryons in the near Universe New data from both XMM-Newton and FUSE have indicated a possible causal link between the WHIM and CSE Evidence is based on the apparent detection of O VII emission lines in the soft excess spectrum of the outskirts of several clusters, as well as reports of absorption lines at local and higher redshifts (seen in the spectra of distant sources) as signature of the WHIM However, while there h...

  4. The Sparing Phenomenon. A case series of the inverse Koebner and related phenomena

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ajith P. Kannangara


    Full Text Available Introduction: The sparing of the involvement of a cutaneous disease in a site that has been previously subjected to a skin disease, congenital nevus or physical insult has been reported in literature by various names, including the inverse Koebner phenomenon.Objectives: To review cases that we have seen and to document the reported cases and unify them with a single term, the “Sparing phenomenon”. Materials and Methods: We report four new examples of this phenomenon and performed a PubMed literature search on related search terms and summarized the reported cases.Results: We report four new cases of this phenomenon. An additional 16 reported cases of the sparing phenomenon were identified. Herpes zoster was the most reported inflammatory disease site followed by; skin irradiation was the commonly documented physical insult. Drug reactions and psoriasis were the most common diseases that spare these sites. The time gap between first and second insult was highly variable.Conclusions: We proposed the term “Sparing phenomenon” to describe the skin disease sparing on an area which was previously subjected to skin disease or physical insult. By introducing this new term to the dermatology glossary, it would be easy to collect and analysis to understand the immuno-pathophsiology of this skin reaction described in various names.

  5. Switching VO2 Single Crystals and Related Phenomena: Sliding Domains and Crack Formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bertina Fisher


    Full Text Available VO2 is the prototype material for insulator–metal transition (IMT. Its transition at TIMT = 340 K is fast and consists of a large resistance jump (up to approximately five orders of magnitude, a large change in its optical properties in the visible range, and symmetry change from monoclinic to tetragonal (expansion by 1% along the tetragonal c-axis and 0.5% contraction in the perpendicular direction. It is a candidate for potential applications such as smart windows, fast optoelectronic switches, and field-effect transistors. The change in optical properties at the IMT allows distinguishing between the insulating and the metallic phases in the mixed state. Static or dynamic domain patterns in the mixed-state of self-heated single crystals during electric-field induced switching are in strong contrast with the percolative nature of the mixed state in switching VO2 films. The most impressive effect—so far unique to VO2—is the sliding of narrow semiconducting domains within a metallic background in the positive sense of the electric current. Here we show images from videos obtained using optical microscopy for sliding domains along VO2 needles and confirm a relation suggested in the past for their velocity. We also show images for the disturbing damage induced by the structural changes in switching VO2 crystals obtained for only a few current–voltage cycles.

  6. Lattice-Boltzmann simulation of multi-phase phenomena related to fuel cells (United States)

    Akhgar, A.; Khalili, B.; Moa, B.; Rahnama, M.; Djilali, N.


    Fuel cells are devices that allow conversion of the chemical potential of a fuel and oxidant to produce electricity. A key component of a fuel cell is the catalyst layer, which facilitates the electrochemical reaction and where transport of reactants, charge, and byproduct heat and water take place. The structure and morphology of the catalyst layer determine its effectiveness and, in turn, strongly impact the overall performance and cost of a fuel cell. This paper discusses two central issue related to catalyst layers involving two-phase flow: liquid water transport in the catalyst layer during fuel cell operation, and fabrication of the catalyst layer from colloidal inks where a process of particle agglomeration takes place and eventually determines the final catalyst layer structure. Insight into these two issues are obtained using lattice-Botzmann based multi-phase simulations with formulations tailored to deal with features including high density ratio gas-liquid flow in complex porous media, and particle-particle and particle-hydrodynamic interactions.

  7. ENSO's non-stationary and non-Gaussian character: the role of climate shifts (United States)

    Boucharel, J.; Dewitte, B.; Garel, B.; Du Penhoat, Y.


    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of climate variability in the Pacific, having socio-economic impacts on surrounding regions. ENSO exhibits significant modulation on decadal to inter-decadal time scales which is related to changes in its characteristics (onset, amplitude, frequency, propagation, and predictability). Some of these characteristics tend to be overlooked in ENSO studies, such as its asymmetry (the number and amplitude of warm and cold events are not equal) and the deviation of its statistics from those of the Gaussian distribution. These properties could be related to the ability of the current generation of coupled models to predict ENSO and its modulation. Here, ENSO's non-Gaussian nature and asymmetry are diagnosed from in situ data and a variety of models (from intermediate complexity models to full-physics coupled general circulation models (CGCMs)) using robust statistical tools initially designed for financial mathematics studies. In particular α-stable laws are used as theoretical background material to measure (and quantify) the non-Gaussian character of ENSO time series and to estimate the skill of ``naïve'' statistical models in producing deviation from Gaussian laws and asymmetry. The former are based on non-stationary processes dominated by abrupt changes in mean state and empirical variance. It is shown that the α-stable character of ENSO may result from the presence of climate shifts in the time series. Also, cool (warm) periods are associated with ENSO statistics having a stronger (weaker) tendency towards Gaussianity and lower (greater) asymmetry. This supports the hypothesis of ENSO being rectified by changes in mean state through nonlinear processes. The relationship between changes in mean state and nonlinearity (skewness) is further investigated both in the Zebiak and Cane (1987)'s model and the models of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). Whereas there is a clear relationship in all

  8. Exploring high temperature phenomena related to post-detonation using an electric arc

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dai, Z. R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Crowhurst, J. C. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Grant, C. D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Knight, K. B. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Tang, V. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Chernov, A. A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Cook, E. G. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Lotscher, J. P. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Hutcheon, I. D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)


    Here, we report a study of materials recovered from a uranium-containing plasma generated by an electric arc. The device used to generate the arc is capable of sustaining temperatures of an eV or higher for up to . Samples took the form of a -thick film deposited onto 8 pairs of -thick Cu electrodes supported on a -thick Kapton backing and sandwiched between glass plates. Materials recovered from the glass plates and around the electrode tips after passage of an arc were characterized using scanning and transmission electron microscopy. Recovered materials included a variety of crystalline compounds (e.g., UO2, UC2, UCu5,) as well as mixtures of uranium and amorphous glass. Most of the materials collected on the glass plates took the form of spherules having a wide range of diameters from tens of nanometers to tens of micrometers. The composition and size of the spherules depended on location, indicating different chemical and physical environments. A theoretical analysis we have carried out suggests that the submicron spherules presumably formed by deposition during the arc discharge, while at the same time the glass plates were strongly heated due to absorption of plasma radiation mainly by islands of deposited metals (Cu, U). The surface temperature of the glass plates is expected to have risen to ~2300 K thus producing a liquefied glass layer, likely diffusions of the deposited metals on the hot glass surface and into this layer were accompanied by chemical reactions that gave rise to the observed materials. These results, together with the compact scale and relatively low cost, suggest that the experimental technique provides a practical approach to investigate the complex physical and chemical processes that occur when actinide-containing material interacts with the environment at high temperature, for example, during fallout formation following a nuclear detonation.

  9. Ancient sandstone condition assessment in relation to degradation, cleaning and consolidation phenomena (United States)

    Drdácký, Miloš; Frankeová, Dita; Slížková, Zuzana


    of cubes for non-destructive US tests and micro drilling. Then the cubes were cut into thin plates and they were tested for volumetric change due to hydric and temperature variations. That procedure allowed a comparison of results of the US tests on cubes and destructive bending tests on thin plates. The remains of these plates were used for porosity measurements. The overall test procedure was planned and carried out in a way which ensured testing of appropriately corresponding specimens. The results supplied data for studying efficiency of the consolidation treatment with silicic acid ester products in relation to three pre-treatment stone conditions, as well as to the type of sandstone cementation (the tested stones had mostly a kaolin or silica, rarely a goethit cementation). The tested stone types were documented by macroscopic and microscopic (thin section) descriptions. The results further indicate capacity of individual testing and assessment methods, and help to select methods suitable for in situ diagnostics.

  10. Climate Change Impact on ENSO and its Teleconnections with South America (United States)

    Natori, A. A.; Grimm, A. M.


    We analyze the interannual variability of the summer monsoon rainy season in South America and its relationship with SST as simulated by the ocean-atmosphere coupled model ECHAM5-OM for present-day conditions (1961-1990) and future A2 emission scenario (2071-2100). The first mode of model precipitation variability, both in spring and summer, is associated with El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In both seasons it features a dipole of anomalies between northern and southeastern South America. These modes correspond, with some differences, to the first variability mode of observed spring precipitation, and to the third variability mode of observed summer precipitation, which are also associated with ENSO. While the relationship between ENSO events and precipitation variability in northern South America strengthens for the A2 scenario, it weakens in southeastern South America, especially in spring, which is presently the season with strongest ENSO-related impact. The ENSO related SST anomalies in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific are stronger in the enhanced emission scenario, which probably explains the stronger connection with northern Brazil via anomalous Walker circulation. However, the ENSO-related latitudinal tropical-subtropical SST gradient in eastern South Pacific is weaker in the projected climate, which reduces the Rossby-wave propagation to southeastern South America, thus weakening the ENSO impact on the circulation and precipitation in this region. Acknowledgments. This study was supported by MMA-Brazil/PROBIO (GEF and BIRD), Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico e Tecnologico (CNPq Brazil), and Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (CRN055).

  11. ENSO-driven flooding events in East Java, Indonesia during the past Millennium (United States)

    Rodysill, J. R.; Russell, J. M.; Vuille, M. F.; Lunghino, B.; Bijaksana, S.


    Recent severe El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have highlighted the importance of understanding the mechanisms driving ENSO variability and how ENSO relates to extreme precipitation anomalies. Expanding the record of ENSO-driven precipitation anomalies over the last millennium through paleoclimate reconstructions illuminates how ENSO has varied in the past through periods of relatively enhanced and reduced radiative forcing, namely the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). Modern precipitation anomalies in East Java, Indonesia are strongly correlated to variations in ENSO, where La Niña events correspond to positive precipitation anomalies (Hendon, 2003, Journal of Climate). We present the first record of runoff events from lake sediment deposits in East Java, Indonesia spanning the last millennium, which historically occur during strong La Niña events. Our record reveals significant variations in East Java flooding frequency, with more frequent floods occurring from 850 to 1350 CE and after 1800 CE. This pattern is also observed in surface runoff records from the eastern tropical Pacific (Moy et al., 2002, Nature; Conroy et al., 2008, Quaternary Science Reviews), which lie in a region where modern positive precipitation anomalies are closely tied to El Niño events. Extreme rainfall events occurring on both sides of the tropical Pacific on centennial timescales may indicate that both El Niño and La Niña activity were higher during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the most recent two centuries, when radiative forcing was high, and that ENSO activity was reduced during the Little Ice Age, when radiative forcing was weak.

  12. Strengthened relationship between the Antarctic Oscillation and ENSO after the mid-1990s during austral spring (United States)

    Han, Tingting; Wang, Huijun; Sun, Jianqi


    This paper documents a decadal strengthened co-variability of the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and ENSO in austral spring after the mid-1990s. During the period 1979-93, the ENSO (AAO) spatial signatures are restricted to the tropics-midlatitudes (Antarctic-midlatitudes) of the Southern Hemisphere (SH), with a weak connection between the two oscillations. Comparatively, after the mid-1990s, the El Ni˜no-related atmospheric anomalies project on a negative AAO pattern with a barotropic structure in the mid-high latitudes of the SH. The expansion of El Ni˜no-related air temperature anomalies have a heightened impact on the meridional thermal structure of the SH, contributing to a weakened circumpolar westerly and strengthened subtropical jet. Meanwhile, the ENSO-related southern three-cell circulations expand poleward and then strongly couple the Antarctic and the tropics. Numerical simulation results suggest that the intensified connection between ENSO and SST in the South Pacific since the mid-1990s is responsible for the strengthened AAO-ENSO relationship.

  13. A new method for extracting the ENSO-independent Indian Ocean Dipole: application to Australian region tropical cyclone counts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Werner, Angelika; Maharaj, Angela M. [Macquarie University, Department of Environment and Geography, Sydney, NSW (Australia); Holbrook, Neil J. [University of Tasmania, School of Geography and Environmental Studies, Hobart, TAS (Australia)


    We introduce a simple but effective means of removing ENSO-related variations from the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in order to better evaluate the ENSO-independent IOD contribution to Australian climate - specifically here interannual variations in Australian region tropical cyclogensis (TCG) counts. The ENSO time contribution is removed from the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode index (DMI) by first calculating the lagged regression of the DMI on the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) index NINO3.4 to maximum lags of 8 months, and then removing this ENSO portion. The new ENSO-independent time series, DMI{sub NOENSO}, correlates strongly with the original DMI at r = 0.87 (significant at >99% level). Despite the strength of the correlation between these series, the IOD events classified based on DMI{sub NOENSO} provide important differences from previously identified IOD events, which are more closely aligned with ENSO phases. IOD event composite maps of SSTAs regressed on DMI{sub NOENSO} reveal a much greater ENSO-independence than the original DMI-related SSTA pattern. This approach is used to explore relationships between Australian region TCG and IOD from 1968 to 2007. While we show that both the DMI and DMI{sub NOENSO} have significant hindcast skill (on the 95% level) when used as predictors in a multiple linear regression model for Australian region annual TCG counts, the IOD does not add any significant hindcast skill over an ENSO-only predictor model, based on NINO4. Correlations between the time series of annual TCG count observations and ENSO + IOD model cross-validated hindcasts achieve r = 0.68 (significant at the 99% level). (orig.)

  14. The role of atmosphere and ocean physical processes in ENSO in a perturbed physics coupled climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Y. Philip


    Full Text Available We examine the behaviour of the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO in an ensemble of global climate model simulations with perturbations to parameters in the atmosphere and ocean components respectively. The influence of the uncertainty in these parametrisations on ENSO are investigated systematically. The ensemble exhibits a range of different ENSO behaviour in terms of the amplitude and spatial structure of the sea surface temperature (SST variability. The nature of the individual feedbacks that operate within the ENSO system are diagnosed using an Intermediate Complexity Model (ICM, which has been used previously to examine the diverse ENSO behaviour of the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble. Unlike in that case, the ENSO in these perturbed physics experiments is not principally controlled by variations in the mean climate state. Rather the parameter perturbations influence the ENSO characteristics by modifying the coupling feedbacks within the cycle. The associated feedbacks that contribute most to the ensemble variations are the response of SST to local wind variability and damping, followed by the response of SST to thermocline anomalies and the response of the zonal wind stress to those SST anomalies. Atmospheric noise amplitudes and oceanic processes play a relatively minor role.

  15. Tibetan Plateau capacitor effect during the summer preceding ENSO: from the Yellow River climate perspective (United States)

    Jin, Rui; Wu, Zhiwei; Zhang, Peng


    It is well recognized that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may exert a direct impact on the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall through modulating the Philippine Sea anticyclone variability. Such ENSO associated influence is evident in the monsoon region, i.e., Southeast China, the Yangtze River, Korean Peninsula and Japan. It remains unclear whether and how this ENSO related effect can reach the Yellow River region, a monsoon/arid transition region. In this study, results show that the year-to-year variations of the Yellow River summer rainfall can be indirectly influenced by ENSO, during its developing phase. The western Tibetan Plateau snow cover (WTPSC) may act as a "capacitor", helping ENSO signal to reach the Yellow River region. During the El Niño developing spring, the associated diabatic heating in Pacific region can excite an anomalous cyclone over the plateau and anomalous upward flows over the western plateau. Such circulation configuration favors an excessive WTPSC anomaly in spring. The more WTPSC may increase the surface albedo, decrease the absorbed net shortwave radiation and in turn intensify the WTPSC. Through such snow-albedo feedback process, the excessive WTPSC anomaly may strengthen and persist through summer, which may induce two noticeable wave trains in the upper and lower troposphere propagating northeastward to the Yellow River region. Associated with the wave trains, a low pressure anomaly prevails over northeast China. To the southwest side of the anomalous low pressure, the abnormal northerly wind may bring large volumes of dry cold air with little moisture to the Yellow River region, leading to the anomalous drought there. During the La Niña developing summer, the situation tends to be opposite. As such, the ENSO associated influence is tied to the interannual variations of the following summer Yellow River precipitation, with the development of ENSO from spring.

  16. Influence of Tailored Applied Magnetic Fields on High-Power MPD Thruster Current Transport and Onset-Related Phenomena (United States)

    Moeller, Robert C.; Polk, James E.


    magnetic field configurations enabled significant reductions in onset-related behaviors relative to self-field operation. These improvements should lead to reduced anode erosion, i.e., improved thruster lifetime, and increased thruster efficiency with the applied fields. The applied fields used in this study differ from both the topologies and relative field strengths typically used in the vast majority of conventional, so-called "applied-field MPD thrusters" (AF-MPDTs). These results suggest a distinctive and more effective approach to influencing the near-anode phenomena and mitigating the deleterious effects of onset with appropriately designed applied magnetic fields.

  17. Dropout Phenomena at Universities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Michael Søgaard; Kornbeck, Kasper Pihl; Kristensen, Rune

    Dropout from university studies comprises a number of complex phenomena with serious complex consequences and profound political attention. Further analysis of the field is, therefore, warranted. Such an analysis is offered here as a systematic review which gives answers based on the best possible...... evidence found in the research field comprised by the three review questions to be addressed. The aims of this systematic review can, thus, be summarized like this: Which answers can be offered from research in relation to the following questions: What is dropout from university studies? Why do...... such dropout phenomena occur at universities? What can be done by the universities to prevent or reduce such dropout phenomena?...

  18. Applying Machine Learning to Climate Forcing of Streamflow: Regression Ensembles Illuminate Local Influences on Watershed Responses to ENSO. (United States)

    Rice, J. S.; Emanuel, R. E.


    The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important contributor to global climate variability and is also a major influence on the hydrological cycle, affecting precipitation and watershed hydrologic responses around the globe. Although regional patterns of hydrologic responses to ENSO climate forcing are generally clear, individual watersheds within a region respond very differently (or not at all) to ENSO. Our goal was to improve understanding of watershed scale hydrologic responses to ENSO and the factors that influence variability in those responses. This goal was addressed using a large dataset of watersheds (n=2731) within the conterminous United States together with an ensemble of various forms of regression. Specifically, we combine linear, non-linear, and tree-based regressors into a stacked ensemble of models to identify patterns in watershed scale hydrologic responses to ENSO. The resulting regression ensemble explained approximately 80% of the observed variability in monthly runoff responses to the multivariate ENSO index. We found that features related to the residence time of water within a watershed were associated with the expression of ENSO signals within streamflow. Our results have important implications for future hydrologic responses to ENSO within the U.S. given ongoing changes in hydroclimate. We identified other relationships that present opportunities for management based approaches to mediating watershed responses to future extremes in ENSO activity. Together, these results provide a prime example of the application of machine learning based methods in the hydrologic sciences to increase basic understanding of hydrologic behavior while also generating insight that may directly benefit water resource management activities.

  19. [Relevant factors concerning phenomena related to the process of initiating dialysis in elderly patients with chronic renal failure: predicting the outcomes of subsequent phenomena at the stage of the initial phenomenon]. (United States)

    Fujimaki, Hiroshi; Kasuya, Yutaka; Kawaguchi, Sachiko; Hara, Shino; Koga, Shiro; Takahashi, Tadao; Mizuno, Shoichi


    We previously investigated the relevant factors concerning each individual phenomenon related to the process of initiating dialysis in elderly patients with chronic renal failure. Background factors that were identified as relevant factors were significant in terms of enabling us to predict the outcome of each phenomenon in new patients. However, the significance of these factors in predicting the outcomes of subsequent phenomena at the stage of the initial phenomenon was unclear. This was attributed to the fact that the subjects with phenomena decreased in number and because of changes in characteristics (hereafter, changes in subjects) with the progression of the process of initiating dialysis. In the present study, we aimed to identify relevant factors for predicting the outcomes of subsequent phenomena at the stage of the initial phenomenon. For this purpose, we assumed that "progression of the process of initiating dialysis does not result in significant reductions in the number of cases and causes only minor changes in characteristics". We studied a total of 152 patients with advanced chronic renal failure aged >or=60 years. Background factors were investigated in all patients. The following phenomena were analyzed: acceptance of dialysis, urgency of initiating dialysis, alleviation of disease, and returning home. In order to identify new relevant factors, we focused on the order and condition of the process by which each background factor was narrowed down during logistic regression analysis for each phenomenon. We determined which background factor to focus on for each phenomenon based on changes in background factors. Age and cognitive function were related to the urgency of initiating dialysis and alleviation of disease. Age, walking ability, and cognitive function were related to returning home. Age was eliminated at the final stage of logistic regression analysis for alleviation of disease and at the penultimate stage of logistic regression analysis for

  20. An ENSO beginning in the year 2000?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopinathan, C.K.

    Several models have been developed over the last few decades to predict the advent of new ENSO events several months in advance of the actual event. None of the models have predicted a warm event beginning by the year 2000. Positive SST anomalies...

  1. [Chemistry approach for therapeutic education of children with hemophilia and their parents: Representation of complex phenomena related to treatment]. (United States)

    Novais, T; Meunier, S; Trossaërt, M; Salmon, D; Chamouard, V


    The therapeutic management of hemophilia is based on replacement therapy by clotting factor concentrates and may require several injections per week. In teenagers, non-compliance with treatment may be responsible for major orthopedic complications. The aim of this study was to develop and assess an educational intervention for children with hemophilia and their parents, thus illustrating the complex phenomena related to treatment and its adhesion. The construction of the educational workshop and tools was based on the concrete, visual, and playful representation of the following concepts: pathophysiology, the replacement therapy's mechanism of action, drug elimination requiring repeated administrations, and inhibitor development. The procedure was then assessed by a sample of children and parents using a questionnaire. A 60- to 90-min workshop was developed. The different tools used to illustrate the severity of the disease, the effect of the injected drug, drug elimination, and the inhibitor effect were: a blue-to-transparent colorimetric scale in bottles, a weekly timeline, Muppets, and a slow redox reaction. Five children and eight parents assessed this educational intervention with a rating of 3.75/4 (±0.10) and 3.60/4 (±0.45), respectively. The intervention developed could be transposed to other chronic diseases with similar therapeutic characteristics (including replacement mechanism of action and pharmacokinetics). Understanding the transmitted pharmacological concepts in a playful way is a major challenge to encourage treatment adhesion during adolescence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  2. ENSO forced and local variability of North Tropical Atlantic SST: model simulations and biases (United States)

    Yang, Yun; Xie, Shang-Ping; Wu, Lixin; Kosaka, Yu; Li, Jianping


    Remote forcing from El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO) and local ocean-atmosphere feedback are important for climate variability over the North Tropical Atlantic. These two factors are extracted by the ensemble mean and inter-member difference of a ten-member Pacific Ocean-Global Atmosphere (POGA) experiment, in which sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are restored to the observed anomalies over the tropical Pacific but fully coupled to the atmosphere elsewhere. POGA reasonably captures main features of the observed North Tropical Atlantic variability. Both ENSO forced and local North Tropical Atlantic Modes (NTAMs) develop with wind-evaporation-SST feedback. Notable biases exist. The seasonality of the simulated NTAM is delayed by 1 month, due to the late development of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the model. This suggests the importance of NAO in setting the seasonality of NTAM and of the extratropical-tropical teleconnection. The simulated NTAM is closely related to the Atlantic Niño in the subsequent summer, a relationship not so obvious in observations. Local variability, represented by the preseason NAO and SST persistence, contributes considerably to NTAM variability. Including these two indicators, together with ENSO, improves the predictability of NTAM. The South Tropical Atlantic Mode can be forced by ENSO, and a cross-equatorial dipole is triggered by ENSO instead of local air-sea coupling within the tropical Atlantic.

  3. The impact of ENSO on the South Atlantic Subtropical Dipole Mode (United States)

    Rodrigues, Regina; Campos, Edmo; Haarsma, Reindert


    The impact of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the South Atlantic subtropical dipole mode (SASD) is investigated using both observations and model simulations. The SASD is the dominant mode of coupled ocean-atmosphere variability in the South Atlantic. This study focuses on austral summer, when both ENSO and SASD peak. We show that negative SASD events are associated with central Pacific El Niño events by triggering the Pacific-South America wave train (PSA). The latter resembles the 3rd leading mode of atmospheric variability in the Southern Hemisphere (PSA2) and causes a weakening and meridional shift of the South Atlantic subtropical high, which then generates the negative SASD events. On the other hand, a strengthening of the South Atlantic subtropical high related to central La Niña teleconnections causes positive SASD events. Our results show that the PSA2, triggered by central Pacific ENSO events, connects the tropical Pacific to the Atlantic. This connection is absent from eastern Pacific ENSO events, which appear to initiate the 2nd leading mode of atmospheric variability in the Southern Hemisphere (PSA1). It is for this reason that previous studies have found weak correlations between ENSO and SASD. These findings can improve the climate prediction of southeast South America and southern Africa since these regions are affected by sea surface temperature anomalies of both Pacific and Atlantic oceans.

  4. Modeling and Observations of the Response of Tropical Tropospheric Ozone to ENSO (United States)

    Oman, L. D.; Douglass, A. R.; Ziemke, J. R.; Waugh, D. W.; Lang, C.; Rodriquez, J. M.; Nielsen, J. E.


    The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of tropical variability on interannual time scales. ENSO appears to extend its influence into the chemical composition of the tropical troposphere, Recent results have revealed an ENSO induced wave-1 anomaly in observed tropical tropospheric column ozone, This results in a dipole over the western and eastern tropical Pacific, whereby differencing the two regions produces an ozone anomaly with an extremely high correlation to the Nino 3.4 Index. We have successfully reproduced this result using the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) general circulation model coupled to a comprehensive stratospheric and tropospheric chemical mechanism forced with observed sea surface temperatures over the past 25 years, An examination of the modeled ozone field reveals the vertical contributions of tropospheric ozone to the column over the western and eastern Pacific region, We will show targeted comparisons with SHADOZ ozonesondes over these regions to provide insight into the vertical structure. Also, comparisons with NASA's Aura satellite Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Tropospheric Emissions Spectrometer (TES) instruments and other appropriate data sets will be shown. In addition, the water vapor response to ENSO will be compared to help illuminate its role relative to dynamics in impacting ozone concentrations. These results indicate that the tropospheric ozone response to ENSO is potentially a very useful chemistry-climate diagnostic and should be considered in future modeling assessments.

  5. Coastal upwelling along the southwest coast of India – ENSO modulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Muni Krishna


    Full Text Available An index of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO in the Pacific during pre monsoon season is shown to account for a significant part of the variability of coastal Sea Surface Temperature (SST anomalies measured a few months later within the wind driven southwest coast of India coastal upwelling region 7° N–14° N. This teleconnection is thought to result from an atmospheric bridge between the Pacific and north Indian Oceans, leading to warm (cold ENSO events being associated with relaxation (intensification of the Indian trade winds and of the wind-induced coastal upwelling. This ENSO related modulation of the wind-driven coastal upwelling appears to contribute to the connection observed at the basin-scale between ENSO and SST in the Arabian Sea. The ability to use this teleconnection to give warning of large changes in the southwest coast of India coastal upwelling few months in advance is successfully tested using data from 1998 and 1999 ENSO events.

  6. A Review of ENSO Influence on the North Atlantic. A Non-Stationary Signal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca


    Full Text Available The atmospheric seasonal cycle of the North Atlantic region is dominated by meridional movements of the circulation systems: from the tropics, where the West African Monsoon and extreme tropical weather events take place, to the extratropics, where the circulation is dominated by seasonal changes in the jetstream and extratropical cyclones. Climate variability over the North Atlantic is controlled by various mechanisms. Atmospheric internal variability plays a crucial role in the mid-latitudes. However, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO is still the main source of predictability in this region situated far away from the Pacific. Although the ENSO influence over tropical and extra-tropical areas is related to different physical mechanisms, in both regions this teleconnection seems to be non-stationary in time and modulated by multidecadal changes of the mean flow. Nowadays, long observational records (greater than 100 years and modeling projects (e.g., CMIP permit detecting non-stationarities in the influence of ENSO over the Atlantic basin, and further analyzing its potential mechanisms. The present article reviews the ENSO influence over the Atlantic region, paying special attention to the stability of this teleconnection over time and the possible modulators. Evidence is given that the ENSO–Atlantic teleconnection is weak over the North Atlantic. In this regard, the multidecadal ocean variability seems to modulate the presence of teleconnections, which can lead to important impacts of ENSO and to open windows of opportunity for seasonal predictability.

  7. The Mercedario ice core - an excellent archive for ENSO reconstruction (United States)

    Jenk, Theo; Graesslin-Ciric, Anita; Tobler, Leonhard; Gäggeler, Heinz; Morgenstern, Uwe; Casassa, Gino; Lüthi, Martin; Schmitt, Jochen; Eichler, Anja; Schwikowski, Margit


    South America is a key region for the understanding of climate dynamics in the Southern Hemisphere such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A direct ENSO signal can be expected to be preserved in glaciers located between 28 and 35° S, as the amount of winter precipitation in Central Chile is significantly correlated to the Southern Oscillation Index. We will present new results from a 104 m long ice core drilled in 2005 at La Ollada glacier on Cerro Mercedario located in the Central Argentinean Andes (31° 58'S, 70° 07'W, 6100 m asl.). Measured borehole temperatures, ranging from -16.7 ° C at 104 m depth to -18.5 ° C at 10 m below surface, are the lowest englacial temperatures that have been measured in Andean glaciers to date which is reflected in the complete absence of melt features in the core. Another rather unique characteristic of this core is the fact that the oxygen isotopic ratios of water (δ18O) do not show seasonal variation. The core was dated using a combination of independent tools such as (1) annual layer counting mainly based on dust related chemical impurities, (2) nuclear dating with 210Pb, 14C of particulate carbon (i.e. OC fraction) and tritium, (3) measurements of trace gases (i.e. CH4, N2O and CFCs) trapped in the ice enclosed air bubbles and (4) 2D glacier flow modelling. This allowed obtaining an accurate chronology for the last 350 years. The mean annual accumulation rate of the site was determined with 0.27 ± 0.03 m w.eq., principally allowing seasonal to sub-seasonal resolution. We will discuss transport and sources of chemical impurities and the relation between them, δ18O and tropical eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST). As expected for the site, we find δ18O and most chemical impurities to be strongly modulated by the ENSO allowing presentation of a new proxy based ENSO reconstruction back to ~1700 AD.

  8. Present El Niño-ENSO events and past Super-ENSO events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    Full Text Available LES ÉVÉNEMENTS ENSO ACTUELS ET LES ANCIENS ÉVÉNEMENTS SUPER-ENSO. Les événements ENSO actuels et les anciens événements Super-ENSO représentent la redistribution d’énergie et de masse dans le système terrestre, due à l’échange de momentum angulaire entre la Terre “solide” et l’hydrosphère. Les événements El Niño-ENSO actuels montrent une corrélation claire avec des décélérations interannuelles de la vitesse de rotation de la Terre: la durée du jour (LOD augmente. Bien qu’il soit généralement considéré que ces changements de rotation sont causés par l’échange de momentum angulaire avec l’atmosphère, nous démontrons ici qu’une grande partie, peut-être la majeure partie, des variations du LOD sont causées en réalité par l’échange du momentum angulaire entre la terre “solide” et l’hydrosphère dans un systéme couplé de régénération. Ce mécanisme agit aussi sur des échelles de temps qui vont de la décennie au siècle, provoquant des événements Super-ENSO. Plusieurs de ces événements ont été identifiés au cours de l’Holocène. Un événement de plus grande envergure a eu lieu à l’ère médiévale. Au cours de la période qui va de 13.5 à 9.5 Ka, les changements importants peuvent représenter des événements Mega-ENSO. Au cours des âges glaciaires, avec une vitesse de rotation plus grande, il est probable que les événements ENSO-El Niño furent absents. Dans les enregistrements du passé, de courte durée, les empreintes d’événements Super-ENSO doivent étre beaucoup plus fréquents que ceux de véritables ENSO interannuels, simplement parce que ces derniers sont trop brefs et généralement trop légers. ACTUALES EVENTOS EL NIÑO-ENSO Y ANTIGUOS EVENTOS SUPER-ENSO. Los actuales eventos ENSO y los antiguos eventos Super-ENSO representan la redistribución de energía y masa en el sistema terrestre, debido al intercambio de momento angular entre la Tierra “sólida” y la

  9. An overview of ENSO signature on the surface parameters of the tropical Pacific ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    is the planet’s most powerful climatic event at the interannual time scale. In this note, the ENSO-related variability is described and analyzed for key tropical Pacific oceanic and atmospheric parameters. These parameters consist of sea-surface temperature and salinity, 0/450 dbar dynamic height anomaly (i. e., an alias for sea level, surface wind and precipitation collected during the 1961-1995 period. The ENSO-related signals are extracted from an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF analysis performed on the low-pass filtered time series. For each parameter, the EOF analysis pinpoints the locations and times of notable ENSO-related variations in a concise manner.

  10. A unified proxy for ENSO and PDO variability since 1650

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. McGregor


    Full Text Available In this manuscript we have attempted to consolidate the common signal in previously defined proxy reconstructions of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation into one individual proxy titled the Unified ENSO Proxy (UEP. While correlating well with the majority of input reconstructions, the UEP provides better representation of observed indices of ENSO, discrete ENSO events and documented historical chronologies of ENSO than any of these input ENSO reconstructions. Further to this, the UEP also provides a means to reconstruct the PDO/IPO multi-decadal variability of the Pacific Ocean as the low-pass filtered UEP displays multi-decadal variability that is consistent with the 20th century variability of the PDO and IPO. The UEP is then used to describe changes in ENSO variability which have occurred since 1650 focusing on changes in ENSOs variance, multi-year ENSO events, PDO-like multi-decadal variability and the effects of volcanic and solar forcing on ENSO. We find that multi-year El Niño events similar to the 1990–1995 event have occurred several times over the last 3 1/2 centuries. Consistent with earlier studies we find that volcanic forcing can induce a statistically significant change in the mean state of ENSO in the year of the eruption and a doubling of the probability of an El Niño (La Niña event occurring in the year of (three years after the eruption.

  11. Phenological Responses to ENSO in the Global Oceans (United States)

    Racault, M.-F.; Sathyendranath, S.; Menon, N.; Platt, T.


    Phenology relates to the study of timing of periodic events in the life cycle of plants or animals as influenced by environmental conditions and climatic forcing. Phenological metrics provide information essential to quantify variations in the life cycle of these organisms. The metrics also allow us to estimate the speed at which living organisms respond to environmental changes. At the surface of the oceans, microscopic plant cells, so-called phytoplankton, grow and sometimes form blooms, with concentrations reaching up to 100 million cells per litre and extending over many square kilometres. These blooms can have a huge collective impact on ocean colour, because they contain chlorophyll and other auxiliary pigments, making them visible from space. Phytoplankton populations have a high turnover rate and can respond within hours to days to environmental perturbations. This makes them ideal indicators to study the first-level biological response to environmental changes. In the Earth's climate system, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dominates large-scale inter-annual variations in environmental conditions. It serves as a natural experiment to study and understand how phytoplankton in the ocean (and hence the organisms at higher trophic levels) respond to climate variability. Here, the ENSO influence on phytoplankton is estimated through variations in chlorophyll concentration, primary production and timings of initiation, peak, termination and duration of the growing period. The phenological variabilities are used to characterise phytoplankton responses to changes in some physical variables: sea surface temperature, sea surface height and wind. It is reported that in oceanic regions experiencing high annual variations in the solar cycle, such as in high latitudes, the influence of ENSO may be readily measured using annual mean anomalies of physical variables. In contrast, in oceanic regions where ENSO modulates a climate system characterised by a seasonal

  12. Abrupt ENSO Changes Over the Last 15,000 Years: Inferences From Peru Margin Organic Biomarker Records (United States)

    Makou, M. C.; Eglinton, T. I.; Oppo, D. W.; Hughen, K. A.


    Multi-molecular stratigraphic records developed from Peru Margin sediments (ODP Site 1228D; 11°S, 252 m) provide information about changes in upwelling and ENSO variability over the last 15 ka. Parallel records of molecular marker lipids derived from algal, bacterial, and terrestrial vascular plant sources were generated via gas chromatography coupled with time-of-flight mass spectrometry, which enables facile yet thorough investigation of the multiple lines of information embedded in the organic sedimentary record. The study site is located within the eastern tropical Pacific upwelling zone, and is thus well situated to directly monitor changes in El Niño strength over time. Factor analysis provided the means to identify distinct modes of variability within the broad array of biomarker records generated, and was employed to identify target compounds that could be used to investigate changes in environmental variables. In particular, dinosterol and cholesterol were used to infer changes in El Niño and La Niña strength, respectively, through the effects of these climate phenomena on productivity and upwelling. The dinosterol record suggests reduced El Niño strength from 12.9 to about 6.5 ka (pending age verification), at which point it increased abruptly, marking the resurgence of robust El Niño conditions in the Holocene. The remainder of the record from the 6.5 ka abrupt transition to the present was punctuated by further high-amplitude variability. The cholesterol abundance record varies in parallel with that of dinosterol, suggesting stronger (weaker) regional upwelling during periods of enhanced (reduced) El Niño conditions, consistent with a concurrent increase (decrease) in La Niña strength. The paired biomarker records imply that El Niño and La Niña varied in concert over the last 15 ka, rather than acting as shifting end-member states of tropical Pacific climate. By this hypothesis, ENSO variability as a whole was moderately enhanced in the early

  13. A Non-Stationary Relationship between Global Climate Phenomena and Human Plague Incidence in Madagascar (United States)

    Kreppel, Katharina S.; Caminade, Cyril; Telfer, Sandra; Rajerison, Minoarison; Rahalison, Lila; Morse, Andy; Baylis, Matthew


    Background Plague, a zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, is found in Asia and the Americas, but predominantly in Africa, with the island of Madagascar reporting almost one third of human cases worldwide. Plague's occurrence is affected by local climate factors which in turn are influenced by large-scale climate phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The effects of ENSO on regional climate are often enhanced or reduced by a second large-scale climate phenomenon, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). It is known that ENSO and the IOD interact as drivers of disease. Yet the impacts of these phenomena in driving plague dynamics via their effect on regional climate, and specifically contributing to the foci of transmission on Madagascar, are unknown. Here we present the first analysis of the effects of ENSO and IOD on plague in Madagascar. Methodology/principal findings We use a forty-eight year monthly time-series of reported human plague cases from 1960 to 2008. Using wavelet analysis, we show that over the last fifty years there have been complex non-stationary associations between ENSO/IOD and the dynamics of plague in Madagascar. We demonstrate that ENSO and IOD influence temperature in Madagascar and that temperature and plague cycles are associated. The effects on plague appear to be mediated more by temperature, but precipitation also undoubtedly influences plague in Madagascar. Our results confirm a relationship between plague anomalies and an increase in the intensity of ENSO events and precipitation. Conclusions/significance This work widens the understanding of how climate factors acting over different temporal scales can combine to drive local disease dynamics. Given the association of increasing ENSO strength and plague anomalies in Madagascar it may in future be possible to forecast plague outbreaks in Madagascar. The study gives insight into the complex and changing relationship between climate factors and plague in Madagascar. PMID

  14. A non-stationary relationship between global climate phenomena and human plague incidence in Madagascar.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katharina S Kreppel


    Full Text Available Plague, a zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, is found in Asia and the Americas, but predominantly in Africa, with the island of Madagascar reporting almost one third of human cases worldwide. Plague's occurrence is affected by local climate factors which in turn are influenced by large-scale climate phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO. The effects of ENSO on regional climate are often enhanced or reduced by a second large-scale climate phenomenon, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD. It is known that ENSO and the IOD interact as drivers of disease. Yet the impacts of these phenomena in driving plague dynamics via their effect on regional climate, and specifically contributing to the foci of transmission on Madagascar, are unknown. Here we present the first analysis of the effects of ENSO and IOD on plague in Madagascar.We use a forty-eight year monthly time-series of reported human plague cases from 1960 to 2008. Using wavelet analysis, we show that over the last fifty years there have been complex non-stationary associations between ENSO/IOD and the dynamics of plague in Madagascar. We demonstrate that ENSO and IOD influence temperature in Madagascar and that temperature and plague cycles are associated. The effects on plague appear to be mediated more by temperature, but precipitation also undoubtedly influences plague in Madagascar. Our results confirm a relationship between plague anomalies and an increase in the intensity of ENSO events and precipitation.This work widens the understanding of how climate factors acting over different temporal scales can combine to drive local disease dynamics. Given the association of increasing ENSO strength and plague anomalies in Madagascar it may in future be possible to forecast plague outbreaks in Madagascar. The study gives insight into the complex and changing relationship between climate factors and plague in Madagascar.

  15. A non-stationary relationship between global climate phenomena and human plague incidence in Madagascar. (United States)

    Kreppel, Katharina S; Caminade, Cyril; Telfer, Sandra; Rajerison, Minoarison; Rahalison, Lila; Morse, Andy; Baylis, Matthew


    Plague, a zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, is found in Asia and the Americas, but predominantly in Africa, with the island of Madagascar reporting almost one third of human cases worldwide. Plague's occurrence is affected by local climate factors which in turn are influenced by large-scale climate phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The effects of ENSO on regional climate are often enhanced or reduced by a second large-scale climate phenomenon, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). It is known that ENSO and the IOD interact as drivers of disease. Yet the impacts of these phenomena in driving plague dynamics via their effect on regional climate, and specifically contributing to the foci of transmission on Madagascar, are unknown. Here we present the first analysis of the effects of ENSO and IOD on plague in Madagascar. We use a forty-eight year monthly time-series of reported human plague cases from 1960 to 2008. Using wavelet analysis, we show that over the last fifty years there have been complex non-stationary associations between ENSO/IOD and the dynamics of plague in Madagascar. We demonstrate that ENSO and IOD influence temperature in Madagascar and that temperature and plague cycles are associated. The effects on plague appear to be mediated more by temperature, but precipitation also undoubtedly influences plague in Madagascar. Our results confirm a relationship between plague anomalies and an increase in the intensity of ENSO events and precipitation. This work widens the understanding of how climate factors acting over different temporal scales can combine to drive local disease dynamics. Given the association of increasing ENSO strength and plague anomalies in Madagascar it may in future be possible to forecast plague outbreaks in Madagascar. The study gives insight into the complex and changing relationship between climate factors and plague in Madagascar.

  16. Analysis and control of nonlinear dynamical behavior with applications to selected interfacial and volumetric materials-related phenomena (United States)

    Gupta, Arnab


    The objective of this study was to apply recently developed concepts in the area of nonlinear dynamics to a spectrum of materials-related problems. New models were developed to describe the Portevin---Le Chatelier (PLC) effect and the growth of thin films by ballistic deposition. In addition, a variety of control strategies were developed, intended to favorably alter the dynamical behavior of nonlinear systems. A generalized mathematical description of the PLC effect was presented in the form of delay differential equations. Existing dislocation evolution equations from literature were modified by including a time-delay effect and shown to reproduce experimentally measured characteristics. A new model, based on evolution of the fraction of mobile dislocations due to pinning and depinning by solute atoms, was developed is. The temperature and strain-rate conditions for the PLC effect were mathematically established based on this model. The existence of critical strains and negative strain-rate sensitivity was also explained. A cellular automata-based simple model was developed separately to study slip behavior during inhomogeneous deformation. The change in reloading time and serration amplitude of stress with applied strain-rate from simulations showed good agreement with experimental results. Existing models of chemisorption, thin film growth, plastic instabilities, and voltage collapse in electrical power systems were studied using established techniques for characterizing nonlinear processes. Simple feedback methods including derivative control were used to stabilize certain instabilities in these model systems. The robustness of the control methods was evaluated. Three new feedback methods for control were developed and successfully applied to stabilize an unstable fixed point in a model for dissociative chemisorption of a diatomic gas. A discrete model was developed to simulate the phenomena of surface growth by ballistic deposition. Three parameters were

  17. Can solar cycle modulate the ENSO effect on the Pacific/North American pattern? (United States)

    Li, Delin; Xiao, Ziniu


    The ENSO effect on the Pacific/North American pattern (PNA) is well-known robust. Recent studies from observations and model simulations have reported that some important atmospheric circulation systems of extratropics are markedly modulated by the 11-year solar cycle. But less effort has been devoted to revealing the solar influence on the PNA. We thus hypothesize that the instability and uncertainty in the relationship between solar activity and PNA could be due to the ENSO impacts. In this study, solar cycle modulation of the ENSO effect on the PNA has been statistically examined by the observations from NOAA and NCEP/NCAR for the period of 1950-2014. Results indicate that during the high solar activity (HS) years, the PNA has stronger relevance to the ENSO, and the response of tropospheric geopotential height to ENSO variability is broadly similar to the typical positive PNA pattern. However, in the case of low solar activity (LS) years, the correlation between ENSO and PNA decreases relatively and the response has some resemblance to the negative phase of Arctic Oscillation (AO). Also, we find the impacts of solar activity on the middle troposphere are asymmetric during the different solar cycle phases, and the weak PNA-like response to solar activity only presents in the HS years. Closer inspection suggests that the higher solar activity has a much more remarkable modulation on the PNA-like response to the warm ENSO (WE) than that to the cold ENSO (CE), particularly over the Northeast Pacific region. The possible cause of the different responses might be the solar influence on the subtropical westerlies of upper troposphere. When the sea surface temperature (SST) of east-central tropical Pacific is anomalously warm, the upper tropospheric westerlies are significantly modulated by the higher solar activity, resulting in the acceleration and eastward shift of the North Pacific subtropical jet, which favors the propagation of WE signal from the tropical Pacific

  18. ENSO-Driven Predictability of Tropical Dry Autumns Using the Seasonal ENSEMBLES Multimodel (United States)

    Manzanas, R.; Gutiérrez, J. M.; Cofiño, A. S.; Frías, M. D.


    . References: M. D. Frías, S. Herrera, A. S. Cofiño and J. M. Gutiérrez (2010): 'Asessing the Skill of Precipitation and Temperature Seasonal Forecasts in Spain. Windows of Opportunity Related to ENSO Events', Journal of Climate.

  19. 2015-16 ENSO, Precipitation, and the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge (United States)

    Lamb, K. W.; Fayne, J.; Kalra, A.; Miller, W. P.; Lakshmi, V.; Tootle, G. A.; Piechota, T. C.


    The 2015-2016 El Nino event experienced two outcomes that were worth examination: the extreme warm temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and the remarkably low amount of rainfall experienced by the southwestern United States. Under normal El Nino events precipitation in the southwest US typically increases while precipitation in the northwest decreases. Predicted rainfall caused by the El Nino event was expected by many to provide assistance to the drought-ridden southwest. This impact was not observed in the data. This study identifies the teleconnections within the 500 mb zonal wind data and the relatively new Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) data. Using PCA analysis the study identifies the regions that saw increased precipitation from the rainfall during the recent ENSO event. The study also demonstrates the connection to the jet stream that was dominated by the "ridiculously resilient ridge". The slow moving Rossby waves in the jet stream, linked by others to a decrease in artic sea ice, is shown to have altered the typical impact of an ENSO event on the western United States.

  20. ENSO flavours during the pre-instrumental period (United States)

    Freund, Mandy; Henley, Benjamin; Karoly, David


    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest driver of interannual variability in the global climate system. Recent studies have identified major changes in the frequency and intensity of ENSO events. Under greenhouse warming scenarios an increase in frequency of extreme El Nino and La Nina events is projected. Recent work has identified different 'flavours' of ENSO, for example, classical cold-tongue ENSO events and non-conventional El Niño definitions like the Central Pacific, Modoki and warm pool El Niño events. A critical question is to understand the dynamical aspects of the variety of ENSO events in a changing climate prior to the instrumental period. We present the first sub-seasonally resolved reconstruction of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events based on a multi-century seasonally-resolved network of tropical coral records. The comparison with instrumental observations and existing ENSO reconstructions exhibits high agreement on inter-annual timescales and highlights the merit of seasonally-resolved proxies in studying ENSO dynamics. The reconstructions are used to explore seasonal to multi-decadal time scale variability and trends in frequency, duration and propagation direction of ENSO events.

  1. Landslides as a Delayed Signal of Warm Phase of ENSO in the Aconcagua Park (32 Sl) (United States)

    Moreiras, S.; Lisboa, M.


    The Aconcagua mount (6,929 m asl), the top of the Andes, is characterised by high elevations and abrupt topography that seem to have favoured the occurrence of landslides affecting 25% of the Aconcagua Park (Fig 1). Concerning to triggering mechanism, rainfall are mentioned as the main cause of landslides in historical sources; but this assertion could not be confirmed on the basis of available meteorological data beginning after 1940. The most reliable rainfall threshold value corresponds to a 19 mm (daily precipitation) representing 8.7% of the annual precipitation and 8% of the mean annual precipitation for this region. However, main cause of landslides is related to terrain saturation by snow melting and ice thawing of ice-core moraines or rock glaciers during the warm season (November - February). A delayed link between warm phases of ENSO and slope instability could be established by a relationship found between landslides and local river stream flow (Fig. 2). The typical warm phase of ENSO begins in November of one year, increasing during July—August, and ends in February of the following year. Greater snowfall and positive glacier balance has been linked to the ENSO-warm phase. Consequently, increased stream flows of Andean rivers will be measured the following summer. In fact, ENSO-related features in the tropical Pacific play a major role in regulating the hydrological variability in the region with increased (decreased) summer and annual river discharges following El Niño (La Niña) events.; ;

  2. ENSO's non-stationary and non-Gaussian character: the role of climate shifts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Boucharel


    Full Text Available El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO is the dominant mode of climate variability in the Pacific, having socio-economic impacts on surrounding regions. ENSO exhibits significant modulation on decadal to inter-decadal time scales which is related to changes in its characteristics (onset, amplitude, frequency, propagation, and predictability. Some of these characteristics tend to be overlooked in ENSO studies, such as its asymmetry (the number and amplitude of warm and cold events are not equal and the deviation of its statistics from those of the Gaussian distribution. These properties could be related to the ability of the current generation of coupled models to predict ENSO and its modulation.

    Here, ENSO's non-Gaussian nature and asymmetry are diagnosed from in situ data and a variety of models (from intermediate complexity models to full-physics coupled general circulation models (CGCMs using robust statistical tools initially designed for financial mathematics studies. In particular α-stable laws are used as theoretical background material to measure (and quantify the non-Gaussian character of ENSO time series and to estimate the skill of ``naïve'' statistical models in producing deviation from Gaussian laws and asymmetry. The former are based on non-stationary processes dominated by abrupt changes in mean state and empirical variance. It is shown that the α-stable character of ENSO may result from the presence of climate shifts in the time series. Also, cool (warm periods are associated with ENSO statistics having a stronger (weaker tendency towards Gaussianity and lower (greater asymmetry. This supports the hypothesis of ENSO being rectified by changes in mean state through nonlinear processes. The relationship between changes in mean state and nonlinearity (skewness is further investigated both in the Zebiak and Cane (1987's model and the models of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC. Whereas

  3. Response of Global Lightning Activity Observed by the TRMM/LIS During Warm and Cold ENSO Phases (United States)

    Chronis, Themis G.; Cecil, Dan; Goodman, Steven J.; Buechler, Dennis


    This paper investigates the response of global lightning activity to the transition from the warm (January February March-JFM 1998) to the cold (JFM 1999) ENSO phase. The nine-year global lightning climatology for these months from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) provides the observational baseline. Flash rate density is computed on a 5.0x5.0 degree lat/lon grid within the LIS coverage area (between approx.37.5 N and S) for each three month period. The flash rate density anomalies from this climatology are examined for these months in 1998 and 1999. The observed lightning anomalies spatially match the documented general circulation features that accompany the warm and cold ENSO events. During the warm ENSO phase the dominant positive lightning anomalies are located mostly over the Western Hemisphere and more specifically over Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and Northern Mid-Atlantic. We further investigate specifically the Northern Mid-Atlantic related anomaly features since these show strong relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Furthermore these observed anomaly patterns show strong spatial agreement with anomalous upper level (200 mb) cold core cyclonic circulations. Positive sea surface temperature anomalies during the warm ENSO phase also affect the lightning activity, but this is mostly observed near coastal environments. Over the open tropical oceans, there is climatologically less lightning and the anomalies are less pronounced. Warm ENSO related anomalies over the Eastern Hemisphere are most prominent over the South China coast. The transition to the cold ENSO phase illustrates the detected lightning anomalies to be more pronounced over East and West Pacific. A comparison of total global lightning between warm and cold ENSO phase reveals no significant difference, although prominent regional anomalies are located over mostly oceanic environments. All three tropical "chimneys" (Maritime Continent, Central

  4. Is there conscious choice in directed mutation, phenocopies, and related phenomena? An answer based on quantum measurement theory. (United States)

    Goswami, A; Todd, D


    In a previous article (Goswami, 1997), it was suggested that an application of quantum measurement theory under the auspices of a monistic idealist ontology (that consciousness is the ground of being) can solve many difficult problems of neo-Darwinism, e.g., alternating rapid creativity and homeostasis observed in evolution and the directionality, origin, and nature of life. In this article, we propose an epigenetic quantum mechanism to explain the connection of developmental processes and evolution, as has been evidenced in such controversial phenomena as directed mutation and phenocopies.

  5. Stora Enso Timber rajab Imaverre uue tehase Jaapani turu tarvis / Väinu Rozental

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Rozental, Väinu, 1957-


    Metsatööstuskontsern Stora Enso Timber ehitab Imaverre liimpuidutehase, mis hakkab tootma liimpuittalasid peamiselt Jaapani turu jaoks. Diagramm. Lisa: Pankurid peavad Stora Enso sammu Eestile kasulikuks

  6. ENSO and interdecadal climate variability over the last century documented by geochemical records of two coral cores from the South West Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Ourbak


    Full Text Available The south west Pacific is affected by climatic phenomena such as ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation or the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Near-monthly resolution calibrations of Sr/Ca, U/Ca and δ18Oc were made on corals taken from New Caledonia and Wallis Island. These geochemical variations could be linked to SST (sea surface temperature and SSS (sea surface salinity variations over the last two decades, itselves dependent on ENSO occurrences. On the other hand, near-half-yearly resolution over the last century smoothes seasonal and interannual climate signals, but emphasizes low frequency climate variability.

  7. ENSO-Based Index Insurance: Approach and Peru Flood Risk Management Application (United States)

    Khalil, A. F.; Kwon, H.; Lall, U.; Miranda, M. J.; Skees, J. R.


    Index insurance has recently been advocated as a useful risk transfer tool for disaster management situations where rapid fiscal relief is desirable, and where estimating insured losses may be difficult, time consuming, or subject to manipulation and falsification. For climate related hazards, a rainfall or temperature index may be proposed. However, rainfall may be highly spatially variable relative to the gauge network, and in many locations data are inadequate to develop an index due to short time-series and the spatial dispersion of stations. In such cases, it may be helpful to consider a climate proxy index as a regional rainfall index. This is particularly useful if a long record is available for the climate index through an independent source and it is well correlated with the regional rainfall hazard. Here, ENSO related climate indices are explored for use as a proxy to extreme rainfall in one of the departments of Peru -- Piura. The ENSO index insurance product may be purchased by banks or microfinance institutions (MFIs) to aid agricultural damage relief in Peru. Crop losses in the region are highly correlated with floods, but are difficult to assess directly. Beyond agriculture, many other sectors suffer as well. Basic infrastructure is destroyed during the most severe events. This disrupts trade for many micro-enterprises. The reliability and quality of the local rainfall data is variable. Averaging the financial risk across the region is desirable. Some issues with the implementation of the proxy ENSO index are identified and discussed. Specifically, we explore (a) the reliability of the index at different levels of probability of exceedance of maximum seasonal rainfall; (b) the potential for clustering of payoffs; (c) the potential that the index could be predicted with some lead time prior to the flood season; and (d) evidence for climate change or non-stationarity in the flood exceedance probability from the long ENSO record. Finally, prospects for

  8. “Entropics”: Science and engineering of caloric phenomena related to itinerant-electron magnetism and spin fluctuations (United States)

    Fujita, Asaya; Takenaka, Koshi


    In this paper, the relationship between giant caloric phenomena and itinerant-electron magnetism is examined in order to construct of a newly proposed concept “Entropics”, which is a fusion of science and technology with the objective of solving and controlling entropic phenomena. An anomalous hall resistivity is present in the paramagnetic state of the La(Fe0.88Si0.12)13 magnetocaloric compound. Further, its coefficient exhibits a Curie-Weiss type temperature dependence, indicating the existence of disordered local moment, even though the Rhodes-Wohlfarth (RW) ratio reveals that the magnetic feature in the system is an itinerant-electron type. In addition, the correlation between the magnitude of the transition entropy change of the itinerant-electron metamagnetic transition and the RW ratio was observed. In the Mn3GaN barocaloric compound, the transition entropy of the first-order antiferromagnetic-paramagnetic phase transition marginally depends on the external pressure, in contrast to the data for Gd5Ge2Si2. The origin of this tendency is phase stability against the pressure, as opposed to large volume change at the transition temperature, which results in an enhancement of the barocaloric effect. The influence of topological frustration is also distinguished by comparing it with that of other Mn-based antiperovskite compounds.

  9. ENSO shifts and their link to Southern Africa surface air temperature in summer (United States)

    Manatsa, D.; Mukwada, G.; Makaba, L.


    ENSO has been known to influence the trends of summer warming over Southern Africa. In this work, we used observational and reanalysis data to analyze the relationship between ENSO and maximum surface air temperature (SATmax) trends during the three epochs created by the ENSO phase shifts around 1977 and 1997 for the period 1960 to 2014. We observed that while ENSO and cloud cover remains the dominant factor controlling SATmax variability, the first two epochs had the predominant La Niña (El Niño)-like events connected to robust positive (negative) trends in cloud fraction. However, this established relationship reversed in the post-1997 La Niña-like dominated epoch which coincided with a falling cloud cover trend. It is established that this deviation from the previously established link within the previous epochs could be due to the post-1998 era in which SATmin was suppressed while SATmax was enhanced. The resulting increase in diurnal temperature range (DTR) could have discouraged the formation of low-level clouds which have relatively more extensive areal coverage and hence allowing more solar energy to reach the surface to boost daytime SATmax. It is noted that these relationships are more pronounced from December to March.

  10. Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Ministry of Climate Change, Islamabad, Pakistan. ... decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence ... positive phase of ENSO (El Ni˜no) overall strengthens Hadley cell and a reverse is true for the La Ni˜na.

  11. Future Changes to ENSO Temperature and Precipitation Teleconnections Under Warming (United States)

    Perry, S.; McGregor, S.; Sen Gupta, A.; England, M. H.


    As the dominant mode of interannual climate variability, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates temperature and rainfall globally, additionally contributing to weather extremes. Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter the strength and frequency of ENSO and may also alter ENSO-driven atmospheric teleconnections, affecting ecosystems and human activity in regions far removed from the tropical Pacific. State-of-art climate models exhibit considerable disagreement in projections of future changes in ENSO sea surface temperature variability. Despite this uncertainty, recent model studies suggest that the precipitation response to ENSO will be enhanced in the tropical Pacific under future warming, and as such the societal impacts of ENSO will increase. Here we use temperature and precipitation data from an ensemble of 41 CMIP5 models to show where ENSO teleconnections are being enhanced and dampened in a high-emission future scenario (RCP8.5) focusing on the changes that are occurring over land areas globally. Although there is some spread between the model projections, robust changes with strong ensemble agreement are found in certain locations, including amplification of teleconnections in southeast Australia, South America and the Maritime Continent. Our results suggest that in these regions future ENSO events will lead to more extreme temperature and rainfall responses.

  12. Impacts of ENSO on Air-Sea Oxygen Exchange: Observations and Mechanisms (United States)

    Eddebbar, Y.; Long, M. C.; Resplandy, L.; Manizza, M.; Keeling, R. F.


    Dissolved oxygen (O2) is essential to life in the ocean. The oceanic O2 content, however, is expected to decline as warming reduces gas solubility and ocean ventilation. The detection, attribution, and prediction of this decline remain uncertain, particularly in the tropical Pacific where models and observations disagree on both magnitude and sign of subsurface O2 change. These discrepancies arise mainly from: 1) models deficiencies, 2) the influence of natural variability, and 3) limited ocean observations. Here, we assess the effects of ENSO, the dominant mode of natural variability on interannual timescales, on the upper ocean O2 budget in the tropical Pacific using an atmospheric apporach. We combine 25 years of continuous high precision measurements of atmospheric O2 and CO2 from the Global Scripps Flask Network using the Atmospheric Potential Oxygen (APO O2 +1.1*CO2), a powerful tracer of air-sea O2 exchange. These measurements show a positive relation between APO and ENSO, with El Niño events driving an anomalous outgassing of O2 into the atmosphere, whereas La Niña is associated with anomalous uptake of O2 into the ocean. To explore driving mechanisms, we examine a hindcast simulation of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) from the 1960-2008 period. We find that the tropical region dominates the global O2 flux and thus the atmospheric O2 budget variability, and find, similarly to the observations, a positive relation between ENSO and air-sea O2 fluxes. In CESM, the tropical O2 flux response to ENSO represents the net balance of large opposing fluxes, whereby changes in ventilation of low-O2 waters dominate over weaker changes in solubility and biological productivity of O2. The observed APO response to ENSO not only informs process understanding of the coupling between climate and biogeochemical dynamics, but also provides a unique and powerful test for climate models.

  13. Bioelectrochemistry II membrane phenomena

    CERN Document Server

    Blank, M


    This book contains the lectures of the second course devoted to bioelectro­ chemistry, held within the framework of the International School of Biophysics. In this course another very large field of bioelectrochemistry, i. e. the field of Membrane Phenomena, was considered, which itself consists of several different, but yet related subfields. Here again, it can be easily stated that it is impossible to give a complete and detailed picture of all membrane phenomena of biological interest in a short course of about one and half week. Therefore the same philosophy, as the one of the first course, was followed, to select a series of lectures at postgraduate level, giving a synthesis of several membrane phenomena chosen among the most'important ones. These lectures should show the large variety of membrane-regulated events occurring in living bodies, and serve as sound interdisciplinary basis to start a special­ ized study of biological phenomena, for which the investigation using the dual approach, physico-che...

  14. ENSO-Modulated Cyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Felton, C.S.; Subrahmanyam, B.; Murty, V.S.N.

    (October-December) averaged 925 hPa wind magnitude (m s-1) composites during (a) El Niño events and (b) La Niña events. (Top) Vectors represent wind anomalies during each ENSO phase where p < 0.1 using a Student’s t test relative to the 33-year mean... (a) OLR (W m-2) and (b) GPCP precipitation anomalies (mm day-1) between La Niña and El Niño. Regions enclosed by contouring represent differences in the anomalies between El Niño and La Niña at p < 0.1 using a Student’s t test. Negative OLR values...

  15. Symmetric and asymmetric components of anomalous tropospheric-mean horizontal fluxes of latent and sensible heat associated with ENSO events of variable magnitude (United States)

    Kutta, Evan; Hubbart, Jason A.; Svoma, Bohumil M.; Eichler, Timothy; Lupo, Anthony R.


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the dominant mode of global climate variability and is inherently nonlinear such that the linearity of the atmospheric response remains an area of ongoing research. The phase of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific North American (PNA) patterns of intra-annual climate variability are favored to be the same as the phase of ENSO resulting in important climate impacts across Europe and North America. Advanced understanding of the symmetry of this response at global scale using monthly composite analyses of anomalous horizontal sensible and latent heat fluxes at various ENSO event magnitudes quantified from ERA-Interim output (January 1979 through June 2016) will advance impact predictability. A linear relationship between ENSO, PNA, and NAO patterns was identified, particularly for strong ENSO events. The nonlinear component indicated general eastward (westward) shifts in anomalous heat fluxes during El Niño (La Niña) events such that the greatest impacts were implied across North America during Decembers and Januarys of strong El Niño and weak La Niña events. Analyses of anomalous latent heat fluxes indicated spatial patterns consistent with more frequent atmospheric river phenomena, especially during Decembers and Januarys of strong El Niño events. This work demonstrates that the symmetric component of anomalous horizontal, tropospheric-mean heat fluxes corresponding to ENSO events are effective for identifying north-south dipoles of anomalous circulations consistent with PNA or NAO patterns and connections between tropical heat source regions and the PNA and NAO regions. This work also demonstrates the asymmetric component identified differences in anomalous circulation position and whether El Niño or La Niña resulted in larger heat flux anomalies. Therefore, this work provides insight into impacts associated with future ENSO events, especially across North America during strong El Niño and weak La

  16. Balances de glaciares y clima en Bolivia y Perú: impacto de los eventos ENSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    sensiblemente y esto afecta el término ablación del balance de masa. Se verifica en estas series de 20 años que todos los años ENSO estén asociados a balances negativos. Durante la mayoría de los eventos ENSO, en el sur de Perú y en Bolivia, se produce una reducción de las precipitaciones, lo que contribuye a acentuar el efecto ENSO sobre los balances. Estos acontecimientos tienen una influencia importante sobre la evolución actual de los glaciares andinos, caracterizada por un retroceso rápido. GLACIER BALANCE AND CLIMATE IN BOLIVIA AND PERU: EFFECTS OF ENSO EVENTS. Mass balance of Zongo Glacier (Cordillera Real, Bolivia was reconstructed by using hydrological data. Moreover, the “linear model” (Llliboutry was applied on the balance measurements from Yanamarey and Uruashraju ablation zone (Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Compared with temperature and precipitation data from reliable meteorological stations, these 15-20 yr time series of glacier balances allow us to point out temperature as the principal factor controlling mass balance evolution. Temperature variability strongly depends on ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation events: a clear positive deviation of maxima and minima is generally observed during these events, which strongly increases the ablation. Consequently, a systematical negative mass balance is associated with ENSO events. In Southern Peru and in Bolivia, this tendance is enhanced by a frequent decrease in the precipitation, which modifies the accumulation term at high altitude. So, it is demonstrated that ENSO phenomena closely control the glacier mass balance variability and have a great influence in the rapid glacier retreat observed in this area of Tropical Andes.

  17. Simulation of ENSO Forcings on U.S. Drought by the HadCM3 Coupled Climate Model (United States)

    Busby, S. J.; Briffa, K.; Osborn, T.


    The ability of the HadCM3 coupled ocean - atmosphere general circulation model to represent the mechanisms linking the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and drought in the U.S. is investigated. Rotated principal components analyses of a self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) data are used to identify the dominant modes of summer drought variability in the observed climate record (1901-2002), and in a 250-year period of a HadCM3 control run. A similar mode of drought variability is identified in both data sets that is correlated with ENSO variability: a monopolar pattern across the continental interior, centred in the southern states. HadCM3 successfully reproduces the displacement of the mid-latitude jet streams during ENSO events, a mechanism related to U.S. drought variability, but the model appears to be less realistic in its simulation of the influence of Rossby wave teleconections on drought, possibly due to errors in its simulation of ENSO in the equatorial Pacific. Despite this, we conclude that HadCM3's simulation of the link between ENSO and U.S. drought is sufficiently realistic for it to be used in further studies of U.S. drought variability.

  18. DMS role in ENSO cycle in the tropics: DMS Role in ENSO Cycle in Tropics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Li [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Now at Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine California USA; Cameron-Smith, Philip [Atmospheric, Earth and Energy Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore California USA; Russell, Lynn M. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Ghan, Steven J. [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Liu, Ying [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Elliott, Scott [Climate Ocean Sea Ice Modeling, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos New Mexico USA; Yang, Yang [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Lou, Sijia [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Lamjiri, Maryam A. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Manizza, Manfredi [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA


    We examined the multiyear mean and variability of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and its relationship to sulfate aerosols, as well as cloud microphysical and radiative properties. We conducted a 150 year simulation using preindustrial conditions produced by the Community Earth System Model embedded with a dynamic DMS module. The model simulated the mean spatial distribution of DMS emissions and burden, as well as sulfur budgets associated with DMS, SO2, H2SO4, and sulfate that were generally similar to available observations and inventories for a variety of regions. Changes in simulated sea-to-air DMS emissions and associated atmospheric abundance, along with associated aerosols and cloud and radiative properties, were consistently dominated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle in the tropical Pacific region. Simulated DMS, aerosols, and clouds showed a weak positive feedback on sea surface temperature. This feedback suggests a link among DMS, aerosols, clouds, and climate on interannual timescales. The variability of DMS emissions associated with ENSO was primarily caused by a higher variation in wind speed during La Niña events. The simulation results also suggest that variations in DMS emissions increase the frequency of La Niña events but do not alter ENSO variability in terms of the standard deviation of the Niño 3 sea surface temperature anomalies.

  19. Using ENSO to analyse Cloud Radiative Feedback (United States)

    Kolly, Allison; Huang, Yi


    When attempting to diagnose the climate sensitivity, clouds are the cause of much uncertainty as they are highly variable. There exists a discrepancy between climate models and observations on the sign and magnitude of cloud radiative feedback. For example, Dessler (2013) shows that models predict a very strong, positive feedback response to ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies in the central Pacific which is not present in observations. To better understand these discrepancies we are using radiation data from the CERES satellite and ERAi reanalysis data to look at the most recent El Nino events. By looking at temperature and humidity anomalies in the central Pacific which are associated with these events, and using radiative kernels, we can calculate their radiative effects. We extend previous work by not only performing an analysis of TOA but also analysing the surface and atmospheric radiation budgets. Additionally we analyse the latest GCMs (e.g. CMIP5 models) and compare them to observations.

  20. Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale (United States)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.


    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity

  1. Impact of global warming on ENSO phase change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Cabos Narvaez


    Full Text Available We compare the physical mechanisms involved in the generation and decay of ENSO events in a control (present day conditions and Scenario (Is92a, IPCC 1996 simulations performed with the coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM ECHAM4-OPYC3. A clustering technique which objectively discriminates common features in the evolution of the Tropical Pacific Heat Content anomalies leading to the peak of ENSO events allows us to group into a few classes the ENSO events occurring in 240 years of data in the control and scenario runs. In both simulations, the composites of the groups show differences in the generation and development of ENSO. We present the changes in the statistics of the groups and explore the possible mechanisms involved.

  2. Advanced diffusion processes and phenomena

    CERN Document Server

    Öchsner, Andreas; Belova, Irina


    This topical volume on Advanced Diffusion Processes and Phenomena addresses diffusion in a wider sense of not only mass diffusion but also heat diffusion in fluids and solids. Both diffusion phenomena play an important role in the characterization of engineering materials and corresponding structures. Understanding these different transport phenomena at many levels, from atomistic to macro, has therefore long attracted the attention of many researchers in materials science and engineering and related disciplines. The present topical volume captures a representative cross-section of some of the

  3. Impacts of ENSO on multi-scale variations in sediment discharge from the Pearl River to the South China Sea (United States)

    Liu, Feng; Chen, Hui; Cai, Huayang; Luo, Xiangxin; Ou, Suying; Yang, Qingshu


    Sediment load delivered by rivers is an important terrestrial factor in the evolution and productivity of coastal ecosystems and coastal morphology. As the strongest interannual climate signal, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is closely related to variations in the hydrological cycle at global and regional scales. However, the influence of ENSO on temporal variations in sediment discharge is poorly understood. In this paper, we examine periodic variations in sediment discharge to the South China Sea from the Pearl River since the 1950s using wavelet transform analysis (WT). Furthermore, we apply cross wavelet spectrum (XWT) and wavelet coherence (WTC) to investigate the linkages between ENSO and sediment variability. The WT results revealed that periodic oscillations in sediment discharge in the Pearl River occurred annually (1 yr) before the 2000s, interannually (2-8 yr) from 1960-2002, and decadally (10-16 yr) from 1975-1995. These periodic variations in the sediment load series had common spectrum power with the water discharge and precipitation series, indicating an important climatic control. The XWT and WTC results revealed significant impacts of ENSO on precipitation, water discharge and sediment load at interannual time scales of 2-4.6 yr from 1960-2002 with a shift of patterns of ENSO on sediment variability after the 1970s. In addition, an in-phase relation between sediment discharge and ENSO at time scales of 10-16 yr from 1975-1995 was detected, indicating that variations at decadal scales could be related to other climatic teleconnections such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Compared with the spectrum structures of periodic variations in precipitation and water discharge and their relationship with ENSO, there was a loss of energy in the sediment load at annual time scales after 2002 that can be attributed to dam construction in the river basin. Our study provides perspectives on the connections between ENSO and sediment variability at

  4. Vegetation anomalies associated with the ENSO phenomenon in the Cauca river valley, Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Valencia


    Full Text Available The main factors affecting the production and yield of sugarcane are variety, agronomic management, soil type and climate, of which the first three there is some control, while the climate is one factor of which you cannot have any control, therefore, it should be monitored. Colombia, being located in the equatorial pacific, is affected by two atmospheric oceanic phenomena known as “El Niño” and “La Niña”, which make up the climatic phenomenon of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation and affect the quantity and the number of days with rainfall and influences the production of sugarcane. The objective of this work is to identify spatially and temporally the zones with greater and lower impact of the ENSO phenomenon in the cultivation of sugarcane in Colombia through the use of the Standard Vegetation Index (SVI and the Rainfall Anomally Index (RAI using EVI/MODIS images and precipitation data from meteorological stations on a quarterly basis for the period 2000-2015. A similar trend was found between both indices in the “El Niño” and “Neutral” seasons, while in the “La Niña” season the RAI tended to rise while the SVI decreased when the RAI was very high, this tendency being much more marked in areas with floods caused by the overflow of the main rivers. In addition, a comparison was made between the SVI index and a productivity anomaly index (IAP, finding a direct correlation between both (R2 = 0.4, p<0.001. This work showed that through the use of vegetation indexes, a temporal analysis of the impact of climate on an agricultural crop can be carried out, especially with ENSO conditions.

  5. Inter ENSO variability and its influence over the South American monsoon system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. R. M. Drumond


    Full Text Available Previous studies have discussed the interannual variability of a meridional seesaw of dry and wet conditions over South America (SA associated to the modulation of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ. However, they did not explore if the variability inter ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation can be related to the phase changes of this dipole. To answer this question, an observational work was carried out to explore the atmospheric and Sea Surface Temperature (SST conditions related to the same ENSO signal and to opposite dipole phases. Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF analysis was applied over normalized Chen precipitation seasonal anomalies in order to find the dipole mode in the Austral Summer (December to February. The fourth rotated mode, explaining 6.6% of the total variance, consists of positive loading over the SACZ region and negative loading over northern Argentina. Extreme events were selected and enhanced activity of SACZ during the Summer season (SACZ+ was identified in nine years: five during La Niña events (LN and two in El Niño episodes (EN. On the other hand, inhibited manifestations of this system (SACZ- were identified in seven years: four in EN and two during LN. Power spectrum analysis indicated that the interannual variability of the precipitation dipole seems to be related to the low frequency and to the quasi-biennial part of ENSO variability. The ENSO events with the same signal can present opposite phases for the dipole. The results suggest that the displacement of the convection over Indonesia and western Pacific can play an important role to modulate the seesaw pattern.

  6. Interdecadal variations of ENSO around 1999/2000 (United States)

    Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kumar, Arun; Huang, Bohua; Zhu, Jieshun; Ren, Hong-Li


    This paper discusses the interdecadal changes of the climate in the tropical Pacific with a focus on the corresponding changes in the characteristics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Compared with 1979-1999, the whole tropical Pacific climate system, including both the ocean and atmosphere, shifted to a lower variability regime after 1999/2000. Meanwhile, the frequency of ENSO became less regular and was closer to a white noise process. The lead time of the equatorial Pacific's subsurface ocean heat content in preceding ENSO decreased remarkably, in addition to a reduction in the maximum correlation between them. The weakening of the correlation and the shortening of the lead time pose more challenges for ENSO prediction, and is the likely reason behind the decrease in skill with respect to ENSO prediction after 2000. Coincident with the changes in tropical Pacific climate variability, the mean states of the atmospheric and oceanic components also experienced physically coherent changes. The warm anomaly of SST in the western Pacific and cold anomaly in the eastern Pacific resulted in an increased zonal SST gradient, linked to an enhancement in surface wind stress and strengthening of the Walker circulation, as well as an increase in the slope of the thermocline. These changes were consistent with an increase (a decrease) in precipitation and an enhancement (a suppression) of the deep convection in the western (eastern) equatorial Pacific. Possible connections between the mean state and ENSO variability and frequency changes in the tropical Pacific are also discussed.

  7. Comparative Study of the Effects of ENSO Phenomenon (El Niño, La Niña on Temperature and Precipitation of Mashhad

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    vajiheh mohammadi sabet


    Full Text Available Introduction: The Southern Oscillation is a large scale phenomenon that changes the Normal oscillating air pressure on both sides of the Pacific Ocean. It disrupted the normal conditions and the patterns of temperature and precipitation change in the nearby region and other regions of the world. This phenomenon is caused by changing the water slope in the Pacific Ocean between Peru (northwestern South America and Northern Australia (about Indonesia and Malaysia. ENSO phenomenon is formed of Elnino (warm state and La Niña (cold state. There is high pressure system in the East and low pressure system in the West Pacific Ocean in normal conditions (Walker cycle. The trade winds blow from East to West with high intensity. ENSO start when the trade winds and temperature and pressure balance on both sides of the PacificOcean change. High pressure will form in the west and low pressure will form in the East. As a result, west will have high and east will have low rainfall. Temperature will change at these two locations. Enso longs about 6 to 18 months. This research investigated the impact of ENSO on monthly precipitation and temperature of Mashhad.The results showed that temperature and rainfall have a good relation with ENSO.This relation occurs in 0-5 month lag. Materials and Methods: The severity of ENSO phenomenon is known by an index which is called ENSO index. The index is the anomaly of sea surface temperature in the Pacific. The long-term temperature and precipitation data of Mashhad selected and analyzed. The Rainfall has no trend but temperature has trend. The trend of temperature modeled by MARS regression and trend was removed.The rainfall data changed to standard and temperature changed to anomaly for comparison with ENSO index. The 2016 annual and monthly temperature of Mashhad is not available. The 2016 Annual temperature was forecasted by ARMA (1,1 model. Then this forecast disaggregated to monthly temperature. For each period of

  8. Natural phenomena hazards, Hanford Site, Washington

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Conrads, T.J.


    This document presents the natural phenomena hazard loads for use in implementing DOE Order 5480.28, Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation, and supports development of double-shell tank systems specifications at the Hanford Site in south-central Washington State. The natural phenomena covered are seismic, flood, wind, volcanic ash, lightning, snow, temperature, solar radiation, suspended sediment, and relative humidity.

  9. Numerical modelling of deformations in wood, - A FEM approach with focus on load and moisture related phenomena

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Astrup, Thomas

    undersøgt. Dette er aldrig blevet undersøgt tidligere på trods af, at essensen af mechano-sorptiv opførsel er cyklisk ændring af den relative fugtighed som omgiver træet. I de valgte eksempler blev det fundet, at resultaterne fra den numeriske model var stærkere påvirket når den mechano-sorptive model blev...

  10. Revisiting Cholera-Climate Teleconnections in the Native Homeland: ENSO and other Extremes through the Regional Hydroclimatic Drivers (United States)

    Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.


    Cholera is a global disease, with significantly large outbreaks occurring since the 1990s, notably in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia and recently in Haiti, in the Caribbean. Critical knowledge gaps remain in the understanding of the annual recurrence in endemic areas and the nature of epidemic outbreaks, especially those that follow extreme hydroclimatic events. Teleconnections with large-scale climate phenomena affecting regional scale hydroclimatic drivers of cholera dynamics remain largely unexplained. For centuries, the Bengal delta region has been strongly influenced by the asymmetric availability of water in the rivers Ganges and the Brahmaputra. As these two major rivers are known to have strong contrasting affects on local cholera dynamics in the region, we argue that the role of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), or other phenomena needs to be interpreted in the context of the seasonal role of individual rivers and subsequent impact on local environmental processes, not as a teleconnection having a remote and unified effect. We present a modified hypothesis that the influences of large-scale climate phenomena such as ENSO and IOD on Bengal cholera can be explicitly identified and incorporated through regional scale hydroclimatic drivers. Here, we provide an analytical review of the literature addressing cholera and climate linkages and present hypotheses, based on recent evidence, and quantification on the role of regional scale hydroclimatic drivers of cholera. We argue that the seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature, and resulting river discharge in the GBM basin region during ENSO and IOD events have a dominant combined effect on the endemic persistence and the epidemic vulnerability to cholera outbreaks in spring and fall seasons, respectively, that is stronger than the effect of localized hydrological and socio-economic sensitivities in Bangladesh. In addition, systematic identification of underlying seasonal

  11. Main constraints for siting monitoring networks devoted to the study of earthquake related hydrogeochemical phenomena in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Albarello


    Full Text Available Criteria and data useful to select test sites in Italy suitable for monitoring earthquake related fluctuations in geofluid natural emissions are given. For this purpose, a catalogue of thermically anomalous natural springs was compiled on the basis of recent and old documentary sources. This catalogue, reporting more than 1200 localities, can be used to identify those sites where gas-fluid emissions are presumably representative of deep water circulation. A catalogue of CO2 gas reservoirs exploited in the past and at present for industrial extraction was also compiled to identify all the areas where strong degassing activity may affect spring sources and generate enhanced water-rock interaction processes. To complete this review, data were also collected on natural springs characterized, on the basis of documentary sources, by "anomalous" behaviour during past earthquakes. An independent constraint to select the most interesting test sites was obtained by the analysis of seismic activity in this century. In this way, a number of sites were identified where it is likely to observe at least one significant earthquake (with magnitude ³ 3.5 within 20 km during a 3 year monitoring interval. These pieces of information were matched and three areas, respectively located in the Central Apennines, Southern Apennines and Sicily were identified as the most promising test sites for monitoring geofluid emissions as markers of active seismogenic processes.

  12. Impacts of ENSO on air-sea oxygen exchange: Observations and mechanisms (United States)

    Eddebbar, Yassir A.; Long, Matthew C.; Resplandy, Laure; Rödenbeck, Christian; Rodgers, Keith B.; Manizza, Manfredi; Keeling, Ralph F.


    Models and observations of atmospheric potential oxygen (APO ≃ O2 + 1.1 * CO2) are used to investigate the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on air-sea O2 exchange. An atmospheric transport inversion of APO data from the Scripps flask network shows significant interannual variability in tropical APO fluxes that is positively correlated with the Niño3.4 index, indicating anomalous ocean outgassing of APO during El Niño. Hindcast simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace model show similar APO sensitivity to ENSO, differing from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model, which shows an opposite APO response. In all models, O2 accounts for most APO flux variations. Detailed analysis in CESM shows that the O2 response is driven primarily by ENSO modulation of the source and rate of equatorial upwelling, which moderates the intensity of O2 uptake due to vertical transport of low-O2 waters. These upwelling changes dominate over counteracting effects of biological productivity and thermally driven O2 exchange. During El Niño, shallower and weaker upwelling leads to anomalous O2 outgassing, whereas deeper and intensified upwelling during La Niña drives enhanced O2 uptake. This response is strongly localized along the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, leading to an equatorial zonal dipole in atmospheric anomalies of APO. This dipole is further intensified by ENSO-related changes in winds, reconciling apparently conflicting APO observations in the tropical Pacific. These findings suggest a substantial and complex response of the oceanic O2 cycle to climate variability that is significantly (>50%) underestimated in magnitude by ocean models.

  13. Simulations of the ENSO Hydroclimate Signals in the Pacific Northwest Columbia River Basin. (United States)

    Leung, L. Ruby; Hamlet, Alan F.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Kumar, Arun


    Natural fluctuations in the atmosphereocean system related to the El NiñoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) induce climate variability over many parts of the world that is potentially predictable with lead times from seasons to decades. This study examines the potential of using a model nesting approach to provide seasonal climate and streamflow forecasts suitable for water resources management. Two ensembles of perpetual January simulations were performed with a regional climate model driven by a general circulation model (GCM), using observed climatological sea surface temperature (SST) and the mean SST of the warm ENSO years between 1950 and 1994. The climate simulations were then used to drive a macroscale hydrology model to simulate streamflow. The differences between the two ensembles of simulations are defined as the warm ENSO signals.The simulated hydroclimate signals were compared with observations. The analyses focus on the Columbia River basin in the Pacific Northwest. Results show that the global and regional models simulated a warming over the Pacific Northwest that is quite close to the observations. The models also correctly captured the strong wet signal over California and the weak dry signal over the Pacific Northwest during warm ENSO years. The regional climate model consistently performed better than the GCM in simulating the spatial distribution of regional climate and climate signals. When the climate simulations were used to drive a macroscale hydrology model at the Columbia River basin, the simulated streamflow signal resembles that derived from hydrological simulations driven by observed climate. The streamflow simulations were considerably improved when a simple bias correction scheme was applied to the climate simulations. The coupled regional climate and macroscale hydrologic simulations demonstrate the prospect for generating and utilizing seasonal climate forecasts for managing reservoirs.

  14. Variability of lightning activity over India on ENSO time scales (United States)

    Ahmad, Adnan; Ghosh, Mili


    ENSO, the reliable indicator of inter-annual climate variation of the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific region, can affect the overall lightning activity which is another atmospheric phenomenon. In the present study, the impact of the ENSO on the total lightning activity over India has been studied for the period 2004-2014. During the El-Nino period (July 2004-April 2005 and July 2009-April 2010), total number of lightning flashes increased by 10% and 18% respectively and during La-Nina period (July 2010-April 2011 and August 2011 to March 2012), the total number of lightning flashes decreased approximately by 19% and 28% respectively as compared to the mean of corresponding period (2004-14) of the Non-ENSO. Seasonal variation of flash density is also examined for the El-Nino and La-Nina period. The result shows that in the El-Nino period of the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons, there is an increment in the flash density approximately by 48% and 9% respectively than the Non-ENSO and the spatial variation also having high flash density along the foot of Himalayas region. In the post-monsoon season, there is a marginal change in the flash density between El-Nino and the Non-ENSO. In the winter season, there is an increment in flash density in the El-Nino period approximately by 45% than the Non-ENSO. In the La-Nina period of the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons, there is the decrement in the flash density approximately by the 44% and 24% respectively than the Non-ENSO. In the Post-monsoon season and winter season of La-Nina, the flash density is increased by about 24% and 33% over India. These findings can be applied to do proper planning of lightning induced hazard mitigation as lightning is of one of the major natural disasters of India.

  15. Stress-related phenomena and detoxification mechanisms induced by common pharmaceuticals in alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) plants. (United States)

    Christou, Anastasis; Antoniou, Chrystalla; Christodoulou, Charalampia; Hapeshi, Evroula; Stavrou, Ioannis; Michael, Costas; Fatta-Kassinos, Despo; Fotopoulos, Vasileios


    Pharmaceutically active compounds (PhACs) have been recently shown to exert phytotoxic effects. The present study explores the uptake, systemic translocation, and abiotic stress responses and detoxification mechanisms induced by the exposure of alfalfa plants grown in sand under greenhouse conditions to four common, individually applied PhACs (10μgL(-1)) (diclofenac, sulfamethoxazole, trimethoprim, 17a-ethinylestradiol) and their mixture. Stress physiology markers (lipid peroxidation, proline, H2O2 and NO content, antioxidant activity assays) and gene expression levels of key plant detoxification components (including glutathione S-transferases, GST7, GST17; superoxide dismutases, CuZnSOD, FeSOD; proton pump, H(+)-ATP, and cytochrome c oxidase, CytcOx), were evaluated. PhACs were detected in significantly higher concentrations in roots compared with leaves. Stress related effects, manifested via membrane lipid peroxidation and oxidative burst, were local (roots) rather than systemic (leaves), and exacerbated when the tested PhACs were applied in mixture. Systemic accumulation of H2O2 in leaves suggests its involvement in signal transduction and detoxification responses. Increased antioxidant enzymatic activities, as well as upregulated transcript levels of GST7, GST17, H(+)-ATPase and CytcOx, propose their role in the detoxification of the selected PhACs in plants. The current findings provide novel biochemical and molecular evidence highlighting the studied PhACs as an emerging abiotic stress factor, and point the need for further research on wastewater flows under natural agricultural environments. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. On the relationship between the QBO/ENSO and atmospheric temperature using COSMIC radio occultation data (United States)

    Gao, Pan; Xu, Xiaohua; Zhang, Xiaohong


    In this paper, the spatial patterns and vertical structure of atmospheric temperature anomalies, in both the tropics and the extratropical latitudes, associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the upper troposphere and stratosphere are investigated using global positioning system (GPS) radio occultation (RO) measurements from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) Formosa Satellite Mission 3 mission from July 2006 to February 2014. We find that negative correlations between the atmospheric temperature in the tropics and ENSO are observed at 17-30 km in the lower stratosphere at a lag of 1-4 months and at a lead of 1 month. Out-of-phase temperature variation is observed in the troposphere over the mid-latitude band and in-phase behaviour is observed in the lower stratosphere. Interestingly, we also find that there is a significant negative correlation at a lag of 1-3 months from 32 km to 40 km in the mid-latitude region of the Northern Hemisphere. The atmospheric temperature variations over mid-latitude regions in both hemispheres are closely related to the QBO. There are also two narrow zones over the subtropical jet zone where the QBO signals are strong in both hemispheres, approximately parallel to the equator. Finally, we develop a new robust index to describe the strength of the ENSO and QBO signal.

  17. Influence of the preceding austral summer Southern Hemisphere annular mode on the amplitude of ENSO decay (United States)

    Zheng, Fei; Li, Jianping; Ding, Ruiqiang


    There is increasing evidence of the possible role of extratropical forcing in the evolution of ENSO. The Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) is the dominant mode of atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics. This study shows that the austral summer (December-January-February; DJF) SAM may also influence the amplitude of ENSO decay during austral autumn (March-April-May; MAM). The mechanisms associated with this SAM-ENSO relationship can be briefly summarized as follows: The SAM is positively (negatively) correlated with SST in the Southern Hemisphere middle (high) latitudes. This dipole-like SST anomaly pattern is referred to as the Southern Ocean Dipole (SOD). The DJF SOD, caused by the DJF SAM, could persist until MAM and then influence atmospheric circulation, including trade winds, over the Niño3.4 area. Anomalous trade winds and SST anomalies over the Niño3.4 area related to the DJF SAM are further developed through the Bjerkness feedback, which eventually results in a cooling (warming) over the Niño3.4 area followed by the positive (negative) DJF SAM.

  18. FLARE: A New User Facility for Laboratory Studies of Multiple-Scale Physics of Magnetic Reconnection and Related Phenomena in Heliophysics and Astrophysics (United States)

    Ji, H.; Bhattacharjee, A.; Goodman, A.; Prager, S.; Daughton, W.; Cutler, R.; Fox, W.; Hoffmann, F.; Kalish, M.; Kozub, T.; Jara-Almonte, J.; Myers, C.; Ren, Y.; Sloboda, P.; Yamada, M.; Yoo, J.; Bale, S. D.; Carter, T.; Dorfman, S.; Drake, J.; Egedal, J.; Sarff, J.; Wallace, J.


    The FLARE device (Facility for Laboratory Reconnection Experiments; is a new laboratory experiment under construction at Princeton with first plasmas expected in the fall of 2017, based on the design of Magnetic Reconnection Experiment (MRX; with much extended parameter ranges. Its main objective is to provide an experimental platform for the studies of magnetic reconnection and related phenomena in the multiple X-line regimes directly relevant to space, solar, astrophysical and fusion plasmas. The main diagnostics is an extensive set of magnetic probe arrays, simultaneously covering multiple scales from local electron scales ( 2 mm), to intermediate ion scales ( 10 cm), and global MHD scales ( 1 m). Specific example space physics topics which can be studied on FLARE will be discussed.

  19. Stress-related phenomena and detoxification mechanisms induced by common pharmaceuticals in alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christou, Anastasis [Agricultural Research Institute, P.O. Box 22016, 1516 Nicosia (Cyprus); Antoniou, Chrystalla; Christodoulou, Charalampia [Department of Agricultural Sciences, Biotechnology and Food Science, Cyprus University of Technology, 3603 Lemesos (Cyprus); Hapeshi, Evroula; Stavrou, Ioannis; Michael, Costas [NIREAS-International Water Research Center, University of Cyprus, P.O. Box 20537, 1678 Nicosia (Cyprus); Fatta-Kassinos, Despo [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Cyprus, P.O. Box 20537, 1678 Nicosia (Cyprus); NIREAS-International Water Research Center, University of Cyprus, P.O. Box 20537, 1678 Nicosia (Cyprus); Fotopoulos, Vasileios, E-mail: [Department of Agricultural Sciences, Biotechnology and Food Science, Cyprus University of Technology, 3603 Lemesos (Cyprus)


    Pharmaceutically active compounds (PhACs) have been recently shown to exert phytotoxic effects. The present study explores the uptake, systemic translocation, and abiotic stress responses and detoxification mechanisms induced by the exposure of alfalfa plants grown in sand under greenhouse conditions to four common, individually applied PhACs (10 μg L{sup −1}) (diclofenac, sulfamethoxazole, trimethoprim, 17a-ethinylestradiol) and their mixture. Stress physiology markers (lipid peroxidation, proline, H{sub 2}O{sub 2} and NO content, antioxidant activity assays) and gene expression levels of key plant detoxification components (including glutathione S-transferases, GST7, GST17; superoxide dismutases, CuZnSOD, FeSOD; proton pump, H{sup +}-ATP, and cytochrome c oxidase, CytcOx), were evaluated. PhACs were detected in significantly higher concentrations in roots compared with leaves. Stress related effects, manifested via membrane lipid peroxidation and oxidative burst, were local (roots) rather than systemic (leaves), and exacerbated when the tested PhACs were applied in mixture. Systemic accumulation of H{sub 2}O{sub 2} in leaves suggests its involvement in signal transduction and detoxification responses. Increased antioxidant enzymatic activities, as well as upregulated transcript levels of GST7, GST17, H{sup +}-ATPase and CytcOx, propose their role in the detoxification of the selected PhACs in plants. The current findings provide novel biochemical and molecular evidence highlighting the studied PhACs as an emerging abiotic stress factor, and point the need for further research on wastewater flows under natural agricultural environments. - Highlights: • PhACs were detected in higher concentrations in roots compared with leaves. • Stress effects were local and exacerbated when PhACs were applied in mixture. • H{sub 2}O{sub 2} may be involved in signal transduction and detoxification responses. • GSTs, H{sup +}-ATPase and CytcOx contribute to the

  20. Global Terrestrial Water Storage Changes and Connections to ENSO Events (United States)

    Ni, Shengnan; Chen, Jianli; Wilson, Clark R.; Li, Jin; Hu, Xiaogong; Fu, Rong


    Improved data quality of extended record of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite gravity solutions enables better understanding of terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations. Connections of TWS and climate change are critical to investigate regional and global water cycles. In this study, we provide a comprehensive analysis of global connections between interannual TWS changes and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, using multiple sources of data, including GRACE measurements, land surface model (LSM) predictions and precipitation observations. We use cross-correlation and coherence spectrum analysis to examine global connections between interannual TWS changes and the Niño 3.4 index, and select four river basins (Amazon, Orinoco, Colorado, and Lena) for more detailed analysis. The results indicate that interannual TWS changes are strongly correlated with ENSO over much of the globe, with maximum cross-correlation coefficients up to 0.70, well above the 95% significance level ( 0.29) derived by the Monte Carlo experiments. The strongest correlations are found in tropical and subtropical regions, especially in the Amazon, Orinoco, and La Plata basins. While both GRACE and LSM TWS estimates show reasonably good correlations with ENSO and generally consistent spatial correlation patterns, notably higher correlations are found between GRACE TWS and ENSO. The existence of significant correlations in middle-high latitudes shows the large-scale impact of ENSO on the global water cycle.

  1. Synchronizaton and causality across time-scales of observed and modelled ENSO dynamics (United States)

    Jajcay, Nikola; Kravtsov, Sergey; Tsonis, Anastasios A.; Paluš, Milan


    Phase-phase and phase-amplitude interactions between dynamics on different temporal scales has been observed in ENSO dynamics, captured by the NINO3.4 index, using the approach for identification of cross-scale interactions introduced recently by Paluš [1]. The most pronounced interactions across scales are phase coherence and phase-phase causality in which the annual cycle influences the dynamics on the quasibiennial scale. The phase of slower phenomena on the scale 4-6 years influences not only the combination frequencies around the period one year, but also the phase of the annual cycle and also the amplitude of the oscillations in the quasibiennial range. In order to understand these nonlinear phenomena we investigate cross-scale interactions in synthetic, modelled NINO3.4 time series. The models taken into account were a selection of 96 historic runs from CMIP5 project, and two low-dimensional models - parametric recharge oscillator (PRO) [2], which is a two-dimensional dynamical model and a data-driven model based on the idea of linear inverse models [3]. The latter is a statistical model, in our setting 25-dimensional. While the two dimensions of the PRO model are not enough to capture all the cross-scale interactions, the results from the data-driven model are more promising and they resemble the interactions found in NINO3.4 measured data set. We believe that combination of models of different complexity will help to uncover mechanisms of the cross-scale interactions which might be the key for better understanding of the irregularities in the ENSO dynamics. This study is supported by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic within the Program KONTAKT II, Project No. LH14001. [1] M. Palus, Phys. Rev. Let. 112 078702 (2014) [2] K. Stein et al., J. Climate, 27, 14 (2014) [3] Kondrashov et al., J. Climate, 18, 21 (2005)

  2. Laser speckle and related phenomena

    CERN Document Server

    Dainty, John Christopher; Françon, Maurice; Goodman, Joseph Wilfred; McKechnie, Thomas Stewart; Parry, Gareth


    Contents: Dainty, J. C.: Introduction. - Goodman, J. W.: Statistical Properties of Laser Speckle Patterns. - Parry, G.: Speckle Patterns in Partially Coherent Light. - McKechnie, T. S.: Speckle Reduction. - Francon, M.: Information Processing Using Speckle Patterns. - Ennos, A. E.: Speckle Interferometry. - Dainty, J. C.: Stellar Speckle Interferometry. - Dainty, J. C.: Recent Developments. - Subject Index.

  3. Late-Holocene vegetation and climate change in Jeju Island, Korea and its implications for ENSO influences (United States)

    Park, Jungjae; Shin, Young Ho; Byrne, Roger


    Several recent studies suggest the hypothesis that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important factor controlling the Holocene East Asian Monsoon (EAM). However, the mechanism underlying this influence remains unclear due to the lack of high-resolution paleoclimate records from the coast of East Asia. Here, we provide a new record of late Holocene climate change in coastal East Asia based on multi-proxy evidence (pollen, organic content, magnetic susceptibility, grain size) obtained from a sediment core from Jeju Island, South Korea. As Jeju Island is strongly influenced by the Kuroshio flow, our sediment proxy records contain ENSO signals from the tropical Pacific. The study area was affected by dry/cool conditions in the western tropical Pacific (WTP) between 4350 and 1920 cal yr BP when El Niños were frequent, and by rapid warming/wetting and forestation since 1920 cal yr BP when La Niñas were more common. Jeju Island was relatively dry/cool between 2100 and 1600, 1300-1200, 1100-1000, 800-650, and 300-50 cal yr BP, as opposed to the Galápagos Islands, which were relatively wet/warm, reflecting the ENSO-related negative correlation between eastern and western margins of Pacific. Wet conditions may have prevailed during the early Little Ice Age (LIA) (620-280 cal yr BP) despite consistent cooling. This period of high precipitation may have been associated with the increased landfall of typhoons and with warmer Kuroshio currents under La Niña-like conditions. According to our results, EAM on the East Asian coastal margin was predominantly driven by ENSO activity, rather than by the precession effect. Paleoclimatic data from Jeju Island, with its insular position and closeness to warm Kuroshio currents, provide clear evidence of these ENSO influences.

  4. Workshop on Interface Phenomena

    CERN Document Server

    Kreuzer, Hans


    This book contains the proceedings of the first Workshop on Interface Phenomena, organized jointly by the surface science groups at Dalhousie University and the University of Maine. It was our intention to concentrate on just three topics related to the kinetics of interface reactions which, in our opinion, were frequently obscured unnecessarily in the literature and whose fundamental nature warranted an extensive discussion to help clarify the issues, very much in the spirit of the Discussions of the Faraday Society. Each session (day) saw two principal speakers expounding the different views; the session chairmen were asked to summarize the ensuing discussions. To understand the complexity of interface reactions, paradigms must be formulated to provide a framework for the interpretation of experimen­ tal data and for the construction of theoretical models. Phenomenological approaches have been based on a small number of rate equations for the concentrations or mole numbers of the various species involved i...

  5. ENSO, rotación terrestre, volcanes y sismicidad.


    Mesa Sánchez, Óscar José


    El fenómeno de El Niño- Oscilación del Sur (ENSO) integra paradigmáticamente todas las geociencias. La interacción océano-atmósfera se acepta comúnmente como el actor central de esta oscilación interanual del sistema climático. Algo más desconocida es la influencia del ENSO en la rotación terrestre, aunque hay excelente evidencia empírica y sólida explicación teórica. Con respecto a la influencia del ENSO en la sismicidad la situación es bastante polémica, las observaciones son discutibles...

  6. Critical Phenomena in Gravitational Collapse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gundlach Carsten


    Full Text Available As first discovered by Choptuik, the black hole threshold in the space of initial data for general relativity shows both surprising structure and surprising simplicity. Universality, power-law scaling of the black hole mass, and scale echoing have given rise to the term 'critical phenomena'. They are explained by the existence of exact solutions which are attractors within the black hole threshold, that is, attractors of codimension one in phase space, and which are typically self-similar. This review gives an introduction to the phenomena, tries to summarize the essential features of what is happening, and then presents extensions and applications of this basic scenario. Critical phenomena are of interest particularly for creating surprising structure from simple equations, and for the light they throw on cosmic censorship and the generic dynamics of general relativity.

  7. Changes in Sea Salt Emissions Enhance ENSO Variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Yang; Russell, Lynn M.; Lou, Sijia; Lamjiri, Maryam A.; Liu, Ying; Singh, Balwinder; Ghan, Steven J.


    Two 150-year pre-industrial simulations with and without interactive sea salt emissions from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) are performed to quantify the interactions between sea salt emissions and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Variations in sea salt emissions over the tropical Pacific Ocean are affected by changing wind speed associated with ENSO variability. ENSO-induced interannual variations in sea salt emissions result in decreasing (increasing) aerosol optical depth (AOD) by 0.03 over the equatorial central-eastern (western) Pacific Ocean during El Niño events compared to those during La Niña events. These changes in AOD further increase (decrease) radiative fluxes into the atmosphere by +0.2 W m-2 (-0.4 W m-2) over the tropical eastern (western) Pacific. Thereby, sea surface temperature increases (decreases) by 0.2–0.4 K over the tropical eastern (western) Pacific Ocean during El Niño compared to La Niña events and enhances ENSO variability by 10%. The increase in ENSO amplitude is a result of systematic heating (cooling) during the warm (cold) phase, of ENSO in the eastern Pacific. Interannual variations in sea salt emissions then produce the anomalous ascent (subsidence) over the equatorial eastern (western) Pacific between El Niño and La Niña events, which is a result of heating anomalies. Due to variations in sea salt emissions, the convective precipitation is enhanced by 0.6–1.2 mm day-1 over the tropical central-eastern Pacific Ocean and weakened by 0.9–1.5 mm day-1 over the Maritime Continent during El Niño compared to La Niña events, enhancing the precipitation variability over the tropical Pacific.

  8. The climatology and interannual variability of the South Asia high and its relationship with ENSO in CMIP5 models (United States)

    Xue, Xu; Chen, Wen; Chen, Shangfeng


    The present study examines climatology and interannual variability of South Asian high (SAH) and its connection with the ENSO based on 38 coupled models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Results show that multi-model ensemble (MME) can reasonably capture the climatological spatial pattern of the SAH, although its intensity is slightly underestimated. The CCSM4, CESM1-BGC and CESM1-FASTCHEM can well simulate the climatological location and intensity of the SAH. The interannual variability of the SAH is investigated by calculating ratio of the standard deviation of the ten parameters in models with those in observations. The results indicate that the MME can reasonably capture magnitudes of the interannual variability of the area index, intensity index, and longitude of the SAH center. Quasi-4-year period of the SAH intensity index can be well simulated by CMCC-CESM, CMCC-CMS and GFDL-ESM2G, and quasi-5-year period of north-south movement index can be captured by CanCM4, CESM1-CAM5, CESM1-FASTCHEM, CNRM-CM5-2, GFDL-ESM2G and HadCM3. Furthermore, MME can reasonably reproduce seasonal evolution of intensity and location of the SAH except for its east-west movement. The ENSO-SAH relationship is further evaluated. It is found that about two-thirds of the CMIP5 models can capture the observed ENSO-SAH relationship, although the relationship is distinctly exaggerated by several models. The success of these models is attributed to the reasonable simulation of both the "charge" process over the tropical Indian Ocean induced by the ENSO-related anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical eastern Pacific (TEP) and longitude extension of the western boundary of the ENSO-related anomalous SST over the TEP.

  9. Stora Enso varub Eestis jõuliselt puitu / Väinu Rozental

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Rozental, Väinu, 1957-


    Kuigi Soome metsatööstusgrupi Stora Enso Metsa käive kahanes III kvartalis 4%, on Eesti metsavarumisfirmade väitel märgata Stora Enso Metsa üha suurenevat aktiivsust puiduvarumises. Tabel: Stora Enso Metsa suurim saeveski on Imaveres

  10. Feedbacks between hydrological processes in tropical South America and large-scale ocean-atmospheric phenomena


    Poveda Jaramillo, Germán; Mesa Sánchez, Óscar José


    The hydroclimatology of tropical South America is strongly coupled to low-frequency large-scale oceanic and atmospheric phenomena occurring over the Pacific and the Atlantic Oceans. In particular, El Nin˜o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects climatic and hydrologic conditions on timescales ranging from seasons to decades. With some regional differences in timing and amplitude, tropical South America exhibits negative rainfall and streamflow anomalies in association with the low–wa...

  11. A real-time ocean reanalyses intercomparison project in the context of tropical pacific observing system and ENSO monitoring (United States)

    Xue, Yan; Wen, C.; Kumar, A.; Balmaseda, M.; Fujii, Y.; Alves, O.; Martin, M.; Yang, X.; Vernieres, G.; Desportes, C.; Lee, T.; Ascione, I.; Gudgel, R.; Ishikawa, I.


    An ensemble of nine operational ocean reanalyses (ORAs) is now routinely collected, and is used to monitor the consistency across the tropical Pacific temperature analyses in real-time in support of ENSO monitoring, diagnostics, and prediction. The ensemble approach allows a more reliable estimate of the signal as well as an estimation of the noise among analyses. The real-time estimation of signal-to-noise ratio assists the prediction of ENSO. The ensemble approach also enables us to estimate the impact of the Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS) on the estimation of ENSO-related oceanic indicators. The ensemble mean is shown to have a better accuracy than individual ORAs, suggesting the ensemble approach is an effective tool to reduce uncertainties in temperature analysis for ENSO. The ensemble spread, as a measure of uncertainties in ORAs, is shown to be partially linked to the data counts of in situ observations. Despite the constraints by TPOS data, uncertainties in ORAs are still large in the northwestern tropical Pacific, in the SPCZ region, as well as in the central and northeastern tropical Pacific. The uncertainties in total temperature reduced significantly in 2015 due to the recovery of the TAO/TRITON array to approach the value before the TAO crisis in 2012. However, the uncertainties in anomalous temperature remained much higher than the pre-2012 value, probably due to uncertainties in the reference climatology. This highlights the importance of the long-term stability of the observing system for anomaly monitoring. The current data assimilation systems tend to constrain the solution very locally near the buoy sites, potentially damaging the larger-scale dynamical consistency. So there is an urgent need to improve data assimilation systems so that they can optimize the observation information from TPOS and contribute to improved ENSO prediction.

  12. Analysis of ENSO-based climate variability in modulating drought ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first copula model is developed without accounting the climate state information to obtain joint and conditional return periods of drought characteristics. Then, copula-based models are developed for each climate state to estimate the joint and conditional probabilities of drought characteristics under each ENSO state.

  13. Analysis of ENSO-based climate variability in modulating drought ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first copula model is developed without accounting the climate state infor- mation to obtain joint and conditional return periods of drought characteristics. Then, copula-based models are developed for each climate state to estimate the joint and conditional probabilities of drought characteristics under each ENSO state.

  14. Trophic and environmental drivers of the Sechura Bay Ecosystem (Peru) over an ENSO cycle (United States)

    Taylor, Marc H.; Wolff, Matthias; Vadas, Flora; Yamashiro, Carmen


    Interannual environmental variability in Peru is dominated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The most dramatic changes are associated with the warm El Niño (EN) phase (opposite the cold La Niña phase), which disrupts the normal coastal upwelling and affects the dynamics of many coastal marine and terrestrial resources. This study presents a trophic model for Sechura Bay, located at the northern extension of the Peruvian upwelling system, where ENSO-induced environmental variability is most extreme. Using an initial steady-state model for the year 1996, we explore the dynamics of the ecosystem through the year 2003 (including the strong EN of 1997/98 and the weaker EN of 2002/03). Based on support from literature, we force biomass of several non-trophically-mediated ‘drivers’ (e.g. Scallops, Benthic detritivores, Octopus, and Littoral fish) to observe whether the fit between historical and simulated changes (by the trophic model) is improved. The results indicate that the Sechura Bay Ecosystem is a relatively inefficient system from a community energetics point of view, likely due to the periodic perturbations of ENSO. A combination of high system productivity and low trophic level target species of invertebrates (i.e. scallops) and fish (i.e. anchoveta) results in high catches and an efficient fishery. The importance of environmental drivers is suggested, given the relatively small improvements in the fit of the simulation with the addition of trophic drivers on remaining functional groups’ dynamics. An additional multivariate regression model is presented for the scallop Argopecten purpuratus, which demonstrates a significant correlation between both spawning stock size and riverine discharge-mediated mortality on catch levels. These results are discussed in the context of the appropriateness of trophodynamic modeling in relatively open systems, and how management strategies may be focused given the highly environmentally influenced marine

  15. The seasonally-varying influence of ENSO on rainfall and tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lyon, Bradfield [The Earth Institute at Columbia University, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY (United States); Camargo, Suzana J. [The Earth Institute at Columbia University, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY (United States); Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY (United States)


    An observational study covering the period 1950-2002 examines a seasonal reversal in the ENSO rainfall signal in the north-central Philippines. In boreal summer of El Nino (La Nina) events, above (below) average rainfall typically occurs in this area. Rainfall anomalies of opposite sign develop across the country in the subsequent fall. This study investigates the seasonal evolution of the anomalous atmospheric circulation over the western North Pacific (WNP) during both El Nino and La Nina and places these features in the context of the large-scale evolution of ENSO events, including an analysis of changes in tropical cyclone activity affecting the Philippines. The results show that during boreal summer of El Nino (La Nina) events, a relatively narrow, zonally elongated band of enhanced (reduced) low-level westerlies develops across the WNP which serves to increase (decrease) the summer monsoon flow and moisture flux over the north-central Philippines and is associated with an increase (decrease) in the strength of the WNP monsoon trough via the anomalous relative vorticity. Tropical cyclone activity is shown to be enhanced (reduced) in the study region during boreal summer of El Nino (La Nina) events, which is related to the increase (decrease) of mid-level atmospheric moisture, as diagnosed using a genesis potential index. The subsequent evolution shows development of an anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) over the WNP in El Nino (La Nina) and the well-known tendency for below (above) average rainfall in the fall. Prolonged ENSO events also exhibit seasonal rainfall sign reversals in the Philippines with a similar evolution in atmospheric circulation. (orig.)

  16. Nonequilibrium Phenomena in Plasmas

    CERN Document Server

    Sharma, A Surjalal


    The complexity of plasmas arises mainly from their inherent nonlinearity and far from equilibrium nature. The nonequilibrium behavior of plasmas is evident in the natural settings, for example, in the Earth's magnetosphere. Similarly, laboratory plasmas such as fusion bottles also have their fair share of complex behavior. Nonequilibrium phenomena are intimately connected with statistical dynamics and form one of the growing research areas in modern nonlinear physics. These studies encompass the ideas of self-organization, phase transition, critical phenomena, self-organized criticality and turbulence. This book presents studies of complexity in the context of nonequilibrium phenomena using theory, modeling, simulations, and experiments, both in the laboratory and in nature.

  17. Nonlinear surface electromagnetic phenomena

    CERN Document Server

    Ponath, H-E


    In recent years the physics of electromagnetic surface phenomena has developed rapidly, evolving into technologies for communications and industry, such as fiber and integrated optics. The variety of phenomena based on electromagnetism at surfaces is rich and this book was written with the aim of summarizing the available knowledge in selected areas of the field. The book contains reviews written by solid state and optical physicists on the nonlinear interaction of electromagnetic waves at and with surfaces and films. Both the physical phenomena and some potential applications are

  18. Science and Paranormal Phenomena

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noyes, H. Pierre


    In order to ground my approach to the study of paranormal phenomena, I first explain my operational approach to physics, and to the ''historical'' sciences of cosmic, biological, human, social and political evolution. I then indicate why I believe that ''paranormal phenomena'' might-but need not- fit into this framework. I endorse the need for a new theoretical framework for the investigation of this field presented by Etter and Shoup at this meeting. I close with a short discussion of Ted Bastin's contention that paranormal phenomena should be defined as contradicting physics.

  19. Ultrashort Laser Pulse Phenomena

    CERN Document Server

    Diels, Jean-Claude


    Ultrashort Laser Pulse Phenomena, 2e serves as an introduction to the phenomena of ultra short laser pulses and describes how this technology can be used to examine problems in areas such as electromagnetism, optics, and quantum mechanics. Ultrashort Laser Pulse Phenomena combines theoretical backgrounds and experimental techniques and will serve as a manual on designing and constructing femtosecond (""faster than electronics"") systems or experiments from scratch. Beyond the simple optical system, the various sources of ultrashort pulses are presented, again with emphasis on the basic

  20. Catch variability and growth of pink shrimp (Farfantepenaeus paulensis in two coastal lagoons of uruguay and their relationship with ENSO events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orlando Santana


    Full Text Available AbstractThe pink shrimp Farfantepenaeus paulensis (Pérez Farfante, 1967 is distributed along the Atlantic Coast from Bahia (Brazil to Mar del Plata (Argentina. The larval stages enter the Uruguayan brackish water lagoons during late spring to summer associated with tidal currents of the Brazilian Current. In such environments the growth is accelerated and in early autumn the individuals attain commercial size, supporting important regional artisanal fisheries. The pink shrimp catches from 1988 to 2013 were analyzed and related to phenomena of climate variability in ENSO events and to the growth of the species. The total catch ranges from 0.7 to 162 tons. The variation in catches has a negative relationship with the varied climatic events caused by El Niño. Growth parameters yielding values of L ∞ = 177 mm (total carapace length and K = 1.48 for the period 2009-2013. These values differ slightly from those calculated for natural populations in southern Brazil, suggesting that the population is the same and thus implying the need for coordinated fisheries management between the two countries.

  1. Interfacial transport phenomena

    CERN Document Server

    Slattery, John C; Oh, Eun-Suok


    Revised and updated extensively from the previous editionDiscusses transport phenomena at common lines or three-phase lines of contactProvides a comprehensive summary about the extensions of continuum mechanics to the nanoscale.

  2. ENSO and Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity simulated in a CGCM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iizuka, Satoshi; Matsuura, Tomonori [National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan)


    A high-resolution (T213) coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM) has been used to examine the relationship between El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP). The model simulates ENSO-like events similar to those observed, though the amplitude of the simulated Nino34 sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly is twice as large as observed. In El Nino (La Nina) years, the annual number of model TCs in the southeast quadrant of the WNP increases (decreases), while it decreases (increases) in the northwest quadrant. In spite of the significant difference in the mean genesis location of model TCs between El Nino and La Nina years, however, there is no significant simultaneous correlation between the annual number of model TCs over the entire WNP and model Nino34 SST anomalies. The annual number of model TCs, however, tends to decrease in the years following El Nino, relating to the development of anticyclonic circulation around the Philippine Sea in response to the SST anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Furthermore, it seems that the number of model TCs tends to increase in the years before El Nino. It is also shown that the number of TCs moving into the East Asia is fewer in October of El Nino years than La Nina years, related to the anomalous southward shift of mid-latitude westerlies, though no impact of ENSO on TC tracks is found in other months. It is found that model TCs have longer lifetimes due to the southeastward shift of mean TC genesis location in El Nino years than in La Nina years. As the result of longer fetch of TCs over warm SST, model TCs appear to be more intense in El Nino years. These relationships between ENSO and TC activity in the WNP are in good agreement with observational evidence, suggesting that a finer-resolution CGCM may become a powerful tool for understanding interannual variability of TC activity. (orig.)

  3. Effects of Changes in ENSO on Seasonal Mean Temperature and Rainfall in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Opeyemi R. Salau


    Full Text Available This study investigates the effects of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO on temperature and rainfall in Nigeria. The persistent rise in population with more demands for rainfall and water supply in Nigeria requires a better understanding of the impacts of ENSO (La Niña, El Niño induced changes on the precipitation patterns under future climate conditions. Thus, we compared the sea surface temperature (SST from the ENSO regions of the Tropical Pacific Ocean (Niño 3 (150°W–90°W, 5°S–5°N and Niño 4 (160°E–150°W, 5°S–5°N with the observed temperature from Nigeria and the temperature is further compared with the associated rainfall. The results show that an increase or decrease in the Niño 3 and Niño 4 SST is accompanied by a corresponding change in the temperature over Nigeria; however, there is better agreement with the Niño 3 SST compared to the Niño 4 SST. The investigation suggests that a slight northward (southward shift in the mean position of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ during a La Niña (El Niño event is followed by a reduction (increase in the average temperature within Nigeria while the mean precipitation rises (reduces over the country. These results could aid weather prediction which might improve the economy as well as save lives and property during climate-related hazards like drought, forest fires and floods.

  4. Significant influences of global mean temperature and ENSO on extreme rainfall over Southeast Asia (United States)

    Villafuerte, Marcelino, II; Matsumoto, Jun


    Along with the increasing concerns on the consequences of global warming, and the accumulating records of disaster related to heavy rainfall events in Southeast Asia, this study investigates whether a direct link can be detected between the rising global mean temperature, as well as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and extreme rainfall over the region. The maximum likelihood modeling that allows incorporating covariates on the location parameter of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is employed. The GEV model is fitted to annual and seasonal rainfall extremes, which were taken from a high-resolution gauge-based gridded daily precipitation data covering a span of 57 years (1951-2007). Nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are detected over the central parts of Indochina Peninsula, eastern coasts of central Vietnam, northwest of the Sumatra Island, inland portions of Borneo Island, and on the northeastern and southwestern coasts of the Philippines. These nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are directly linked to near-surface global mean temperature and ENSO. In particular, the study reveals that a kelvin increase in global mean temperature anomaly can lead to an increase of 30% to even greater than 45% in annual maximum 1-day rainfall, which were observed pronouncedly over central Vietnam, southern coast of Myanmar, northwestern sections of Thailand, northwestern tip of Sumatra, central portions of Malaysia, and the Visayas island in central Philippines. Furthermore, a pronounced ENSO influence manifested on the seasonal maximum 1-day rainfall; a northward progression of 10%-15% drier condition over Southeast Asia as the El Niño develops from summer to winter is revealed. It is important therefore, to consider the results obtained here for water resources management as well as for adaptation planning to minimize the potential adverse impact of global warming, particularly on extreme rainfall and its associated flood risk over the region

  5. Southern Westerly Winds submit to the ENSO regime: A multiproxy paleohydrology record from Lake Dobson, Tasmania (United States)

    Rees, Andrew B. H.; Cwynar, Les C.; Fletcher, Michael-Shawn


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Southern Westerly Winds (SWW) profoundly influence synoptic-scale climate in the Southern Hemisphere. Although many studies have invoked either phenomenon to explain trends in proxy data, few have demonstrated the transition from a climate dominated by SWW flow to one controlled by El Niño activity, which is postulated to have occurred after 5 cal ka BP in the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. Tasmania, southeast Australia, is ideally situated to detect changes in both of these climatic controls. Currently, El Niño and La Niña events result in drier and wetter conditions island-wide, respectively, with the greatest impact in the north. Further, Tasmania houses north-south trending mountain ranges near its western coast. As a result, areas west of the mountains exhibit a positive correlation between SWW flow and precipitation, while eastern regions possess either no or a negative relationship. Here, we present data from chironomid remains, charcoal, and geochemical proxies to investigate the paleohydrological history of Lake Dobson, a site located in Mount Field National Park, Tasmania. The proxies revealed three broad periods: (1) an early Holocene (11.5-8.3 cal kyr BP) characterised by generally high rainfall, the occurrence of irregular fires, and elevated charcoal influx at 11.4 and 10.2 cal ka BP - conditions compatible with attenuated SWW flow over the site; (2) an ambiguous mid-Holocene (8.3-5 cal kyr BP) that marks the transition from a SWW- to ENSO-dominated climate; and (3) a relatively dry and stable late Holocene (5 cal kyr BP to present) that is consistent with the onset of a climate controlled by ENSO activity (i.e., characterised by a more mean El Niño climate state). The proxy record of Lake Dobson highlights the teleconnections between the equatorial Pacific and southern Australasia.

  6. Tropospheric column ozone response to ENSO in GEOS-5 assimilation of OMI and MLS ozone data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Olsen


    Full Text Available We use GEOS-5 analyses of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS ozone observations to investigate the magnitude and spatial distribution of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO influence on tropospheric column ozone (TCO into the middle latitudes. This study provides the first explicit spatially resolved characterization of the ENSO influence and demonstrates coherent patterns and teleconnections impacting the TCO in the extratropics. The response is evaluated and characterized by both the variance explained and sensitivity of TCO to the Niño 3.4 index. The tropospheric response in the tropics agrees well with previous studies and verifies the analyses. A two-lobed response symmetric about the Equator in the western Pacific/Indonesian region seen in some prior studies and not in others is confirmed here. This two-lobed response is consistent with the large-scale vertical transport. We also find that the large-scale transport in the tropics dominates the response compared to the small-scale convective transport. The ozone response is weaker in the middle latitudes, but a significant explained variance of the TCO is found over several small regions, including the central United States. However, the sensitivity of TCO to the Niño 3.4 index is statistically significant over a large area of the middle latitudes. The sensitivity maxima and minima coincide with anomalous anti-cyclonic and cyclonic circulations where the associated vertical transport is consistent with the sign of the sensitivity. Also, ENSO related changes to the mean tropopause height can contribute significantly to the midlatitude response. Comparisons to a 22-year chemical transport model simulation demonstrate that these results from the 9-year assimilation are representative of the longer term. This investigation brings insight to several seemingly disparate prior studies of the El Niño influence on tropospheric ozone in the middle latitudes.

  7. ENSO variability reflected in precipitation oxygen isotopes across the Asian Summer Monsoon region (United States)

    Cai, Zhongyin; Tian, Lide; Bowen, Gabriel J.


    Oxygen isotope signals (δ18O) from paleo-archives are important proxies for past Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) climate reconstruction. However, causes of interannual variation in the δ18O values of modern precipitation across the ASM region remain in argument. We report interannual δ18O variation in southern Tibetan Plateau precipitation based on long-term observations at Lhasa. These data, together with precipitation δ18O records from five Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) stations and two ice core δ18O records, were used to define a regional metric of ASM precipitation δ18O (ASMOI). Back-trajectory analyses for rainy season precipitation events indicate that moisture sources vary little between years with relatively high and low δ18O values, a result that is consistent for the south (Lhasa), southeast (Bangkok), and east ASM regions (Hong Kong). In contrast, δ18O values at these three locations are significantly correlated with convection in the estimated source regions and along transport paths. These results suggest that upstream convection, rather than moisture source change, causes interannual variation in ASM precipitation δ18O values. Contrasting values of the ASMOI in El Niño and La Niña years reveal a positive isotope-El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response (e.g., high values corresponding to warm phases), which we interpret as a response to changes in regional convection. We show that the isotope-ENSO response is amplified at high elevation sites and during La Niña years. These findings should improve interpretations of paleo-δ18O data as a proxy for past ASM variation and provide new opportunities to use data from this region to study paleo-ENSO activity.

  8. ENSO, the IOD and the intraseasonal prediction of heat extremes across Australia using POAMA-2 (United States)

    White, Christopher J.; Hudson, Debra; Alves, Oscar


    The simulation and prediction of extreme heat over Australia on intraseasonal timescales in association with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is assessed using the Bureau of Meteorology's Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA). The analysis is based on hindcasts over 1981-2010 and focuses on weeks 2 and 3 of the forecasts, i.e. beyond a typical weather forecast. POAMA simulates the observed increased probabilities of extreme heat during El Niño events, focussed over south eastern and southern Australia in SON and over northern Australia in DJF, and the decreased probabilities of extreme heat during La Niña events, although the magnitude of these relationships is smaller than observed. POAMA also captures the signal of increased probabilities of extreme heat during positive phases of the IOD across southern Australia in SON and over Western Australia in JJA, but again underestimates the strength of the relationship. Shortcomings in the simulation of extreme heat in association with ENSO and the IOD over southern Australia may be linked to deficiencies in the teleconnection with Indian Ocean SSTs. Forecast skill for intraseasonal episodes of extreme heat is assessed using the Symmetric Extremal Dependence Index. Skill is highest over northern Australia in MAM and JJA and over south-eastern and eastern Australia in JJA and SON, whereas skill is generally poor over south-west Western Australia. Results show there are windows of forecast opportunity related to the state of ENSO and the IOD, where the skill in predicting extreme temperatures over certain regions is increased.

  9. Autogenous Phenomena in Cement-Based Materials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ole Mejlhede

    This thesis has been written to obtain the Danish doctoral degree in technology, Dr.Techn. It addresses autogenous phenomena in cement-based materials - primarily deformation and change of the relative humidity (RH). In the thesis it is explained how the importance of these phenomena was identified...

  10. A Connection between Transport Phenomena and Thermodynamics (United States)

    Swaney, Ross; Bird, R. Byron


    Although students take courses in transport phenomena and thermodynamics, they probably do not ask whether these two subjects are related. Here we give an answer to that question. Specifically we give relationships between the equations of change for total energy, internal energy, and entropy of transport phenomena and key equations of equilibrium…

  11. The effects of remote SST forcings on ENSO dynamics, variability and diversity (United States)

    Dommenget, Dietmar; Yu, Yanshan


    Air-sea interactions with remote regions in the tropical Indian and Atlantic, and extra-tropical oceans can influence ENSO features in the tropical Pacific. In this study these effects are explored by using an AGCM coupled with a Slab Ocean and a simple recharge oscillator ENSO model through switched on/off air-sea interaction in respective ocean area. It is shown that the decoupling in different remote regions has different impacts on ENSO dynamics, variability and diversity. The most interesting result is that the air-sea interactions with remote tropical oceans provide a delayed negative feedback to ENSO similar to that of the tropical Pacific Ocean internal wave dynamics. This is caused by the ENSO teleconnections: they lead to a delayed remote warming and cooling, which in turn feedbacks to ENSO effectively giving a delayed negative feedback. The model simulations suggest that this remote delayed feedback may contribute about 40% to the total delayed negative feedback of ENSO. Thus a central element of ENSO dynamics is partly due to interactions with other tropical ocean basins by atmospheric teleconnections. Furthermore, all remote regions effectively provide stochastic forcings for the ENSO variability and therefore increase the ENSO variability. The influence from the remote regions also causes different patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical Pacific, contributing to the diversity of the ENSO mode. In particular the extra-tropical Pacific regions force SST variability that is different from the equatorial ENSO mode of variability. The influence that the remote regions have on the ENSO dynamics and variability is significantly altered by the interaction between the equatorial recharge oscillator dynamics and the simple thermodynamic slab ocean processes.

  12. A Southwest Pacific Coral Perspective on ENSO Variability: Precessional Forcing vs. Internal Variability (United States)

    Quinn, T. M.; Partin, J. W.; Thirumalai, K.; Maupin, C. R.; Vara, M. A.; Shen, C. C.; Taylor, F. W.


    ENSO variability is manifest in the western Pacific through heat and moisture exchanges associated with the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) and the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). Forward modeling (pseudoproxy analysis) results and published coral proxy records from the tropical Pacific indicate that in addition to the central and eastern Pacific regions, corals from the WPWP and SPCZ regions skillfully record ENSO variability. Some studies suggest that precessional forcing directly reduces/enhances ENSO variability. Other studies suggest that internal variability is the primary control on Holocene ENSO changes. Herein, we use coral proxy records from the tropical Pacific and numerical simulations to better understand the response of ENSO to precessional forcing and internal variability. We extend the coral record of ENSO variability using a new modern coral record from the Solomon Islands (1716-2008 CE) and a select suite of Holocene fossil coral records from the WPWP. The new modern coral record captures large ENSO events with considerable skill, providing new evidence for potential large ENSO events during the early 18th and 19th centuries, events that are not represented in current coral and/or multi-proxy reconstructions. We also note that long periods of reduced ENSO activity can occur during intervals with near constant precessional forcing at modern values. The fossil coral records provide discrete time windows into ENSO variability over the Holocene. These records provide evidence of similar patterns of ENSO activity during intervals with different precessional configurations. The modern and fossil coral records imply a strong influence of internal variability in the modulation of ENSO, which may make it difficult to establish a direct control of precessional forcing on ENSO variability over the Holocene.

  13. Recent potentially predictable droughts associated with the west Pacific warming mode and ENSO (United States)

    Funk, C. C.; Hoell, A.; Shukla, S.; Kelley, C. P.; Harrison, L.


    The physicist John Archibald Wheeler suggested that "time is nature's way to keep everything from happening at once". The analog in climate science may be multi-modal analysis, which can be used to identify characteristic space-time patterns associated with major frequency modes (e.g. ENSO, the MJO or the PDO). Under such a paradigm some SST variations, and SST increases, can be meaningfully associated with modes of atmosphere-ocean variability. Here, we build on a recently published work focused on the 'West Pacific Warming Mode' (WPWM) and several new studies examining 'flavors of ENSO'. In this research, multi-modal analyses are applied to observations and to climate change simulations from coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models to help us explore interactions between these modes. Understanding these interactions and, by extension, their respective and combined influences on droughts may enable us to better identify drought prediction opportunities. This talk describes the thermodynamic structure of the WPWM, and suggests that warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool is intensified by local increases in water vapor content. This observed warming has supported an enhanced west-to-central Pacific sea surface temperature gradient. This tendency appears to interact with ENSO variability, favoring La Niña-like conditions and associated teleconnections with East Africa. We examine potential WPWM contributions to drying in East Africa, and examine specific opportunities for regional drought prediction by comparing these boreal spring teleconnections with long-term (1900-2014) rainfall trends for southern Tanzania during boreal winter. While southern Tanzania has experienced substantial rainfall declines over the past 30 years, we suggest that these are mostly due to ENSO-related cooling in the Niño 3.4 region. In contrast, boreal spring declines appear to be strongly influenced by both the WPWM and Niño 4 SST. These analyses suggest that a multi

  14. Transport phenomena in multiphase flows

    CERN Document Server

    Mauri, Roberto


    This textbook provides a thorough presentation of the phenomena related to the transport of mass, momentum and energy.  It lays all the basic physical principles, then for the more advanced readers, it offers an in-depth treatment with advanced mathematical derivations and ends with some useful applications of the models and equations in specific settings. The important idea behind the book is to unify all types of transport phenomena, describing them within a common framework in terms of cause and effect, respectively represented by the driving force and the flux of the transported quantity. The approach and presentation are original in that the book starts with a general description of transport processes, providing the macroscopic balance relations of fluid dynamics and heat and mass transfer, before diving into the mathematical realm of continuum mechanics to derive the microscopic governing equations at the microscopic level. The book is a modular teaching tool and can be used either for an introductory...

  15. Ion exchange phenomena

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bourg, I.C.; Sposito, G.


    Ion exchange phenomena involve the population of readily exchangeable ions, the subset of adsorbed solutes that balance the intrinsic surface charge and can be readily replaced by major background electrolyte ions (Sposito, 2008). These phenomena have occupied a central place in soil chemistry research since Way (1850) first showed that potassium uptake by soils resulted in the release of an equal quantity of moles of charge of calcium and magnesium. Ion exchange phenomena are now routinely modeled in studies of soil formation (White et al., 2005), soil reclamation (Kopittke et al., 2006), soil fertilitization (Agbenin and Yakubu, 2006), colloidal dispersion/flocculation (Charlet and Tournassat, 2005), the mechanics of argillaceous media (Gajo and Loret, 2007), aquitard pore water chemistry (Tournassat et al., 2008), and groundwater (Timms and Hendry, 2007; McNab et al., 2009) and contaminant hydrology (Chatterjee et al., 2008; van Oploo et al., 2008; Serrano et al., 2009).

  16. Investigation of hydrological variability in the Korean Peninsula with the ENSO teleconnections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Yoon


    Full Text Available This study analyzes nonlinear behavior links with atmospheric teleconnections between hydrologic variables and climate indices using statistical models during warm season (June to September over the Korean Peninsula (KP. The ocean-related major climate factor, which is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO was used to analyze the atmospheric teleconnections by principal component analysis (PCA and a singular spectrum analysis (SSA. The nonlinear lag time correlations between climate indices and hydrologic variables are calculated by Mutual Information (MI technique. The nonlinear correlation coefficients (CCs by MI were higher than linear CCs, and ENSO shows a few months of lag time correlation. The warm season hydrologic variables in KP shows a significant increasing tendency during the warm pool (WP, and the cold tongue (CT El Niño decaying years shows a significant decreasing tendency, while the La Niña year shows slightly above normal conditions, respectively. A better understanding of the relationship between climate indices and streamflow, and their local impacts can help to prepare for the river discharge management by water managers and scientists. Furthermore, these results provide useful data for policy makers and end-users to support long-range water resources prediction and water-related policy.

  17. Rheological phenomena in focus

    CERN Document Server

    Boger, DV


    More than possibly any other scientific discipline, rheology is easily visualized and the relevant literature contains many excellent photographs of unusual and often bizarre phenomena. The present book brings together these photographs for the first time. They are supported by a full explanatory text. Rheological Phenomena in Focus will be an indispensable support manual to all those who teach rheology or have to convince colleagues of the practical relevance of the subject within an industrial setting. For those who teach fluid mechanics, the book clearly illustrates the difference be

  18. Impact of ENSO on Photochemical Pollution in Bogota, Colombia (United States)

    Saldarriaga, G.; Jimenez-Pizarro, R.


    We investigated the effect of the increased solar radiation and surface temperature associated with El Niño, i.e. the stationary warm cycle of ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation), on the surface ozone concentration in Bogota. Two periods of analysis were defined based on NOAA's ONI (Oceanic Niño) index, and the availability and quality of the meteorological and air quality time series: February 2009 (neutral phase) and February 2010 (warm phase of El Niño). The analysis of surface temperatures at urban sites of Bogota's Air Quality Network (RMCAB) and IDEAM's El Dorado station show temperature differences between these two periods of ~2.5 °C. Although these differences in surface temperature are significant and sufficient to produce substantial increase of surface ozone, no significant changes in ozone levels were observed at the RMCAB stations. Moreover, no significant changes were observed on the wind speed and wind circulation patterns. On the contrary, the mixed layer height at the El Dorado airport (estimated with the Holzworth's method applied to daily radiosoundings) was ~300 m (~24%) higher during the warm phase of El Niño compared with the sunny period not influenced by ENSO. Based on basic calculations with a box model, we hypothesize that the ozone production increase during the ENSO's warm phase is compensated by a deeper mixed layer, leading to similar surface ozone concentration levels during the two periods.

  19. The relationship between ENSO and Paraná River flow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. O. Cardoso


    Full Text Available Several studies indicate that there is a relationship between the climatic variability in the South American continent and alterations of the position and intensity of the heat sources in the equatorial region. The El Niño phenomenon can influence the precipitation over some regions of South America such as the Brazilian Northeast, Amazonia, South of Brazil and Uruguay. Over 80% of Brazil's energy comes from hydropower, and decisions concerning future availability and pricing require forecasts of river flow, ideally several months in advance. In this work the relationship between the Paraná River flow and the ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation mode is investigated and statistical forecasts of river flow are tested. An evaluation of the relationship between the Pacific sea surface temperature and the Paraná River flow indicates an ENSO pattern over the equatorial Pacific. The time series of the ENSO mode obtained by applying principal components analysis on the sea surface temperature (SST were used as predictors for the Paraná River flow forecast. Improvement in the model forecast skill is also obtained by considering the lagged river flow time series as a predictor.

  20. Modulation of Bjerknes feedback on the decadal variations in ENSO predictability (United States)

    Zheng, Fei; Fang, Xiang-Hui; Zhu, Jiang; Yu, Jin-Yi; Li, Xi-Chen


    Clear decadal variations exist in the predictability of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with the most recent decade having the lowest ENSO predictability in the past six decades. The Bjerknes Feedback (BF) intensity, which dominates the development of ENSO, has been proposed to determine ENSO predictability. Here we demonstrate that decadal variations in BF intensity are largely a result of the sensitivity of the zonal winds to the zonal sea level pressure (SLP) gradient in the equatorial Pacific. Furthermore, the results show that during low-ENSO predictability decades, zonal wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific are more linked to SLP variations in the off-equatorial Pacific, which can then transfer this information into surface temperature and precipitation fields through the BF, suggesting a weakening in the ocean-atmosphere coupling in the tropical Pacific. This result indicates that more attention should be paid to off-equatorial processes in the prediction of ENSO.

  1. Fundamentals of wave phenomena

    CERN Document Server

    Hirose, Akira


    This textbook provides a unified treatment of waves that either occur naturally or can be excited and propagated in various media. This includes both longitudinal and transverse waves. The book covers both mechanical and electrical waves, which are normally covered separately due to their differences in physical phenomena.

  2. Impacts of the Tropical Pacific Cold Tongue Mode on ENSO Diversity Under Global Warming (United States)

    Li, Yang; Li, Jianping; Zhang, Wenjun; Chen, Quanliang; Feng, Juan; Zheng, Fei; Wang, Wei; Zhou, Xin


    The causes of ENSO diversity, although being of great interest in recent research, do not have a consistent explanation. This study provides a possible mechanism focused on the background change of the tropical Pacific as a response to global warming. The second empirical orthogonal function mode of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific, namely the cold tongue mode (CTM), represents the background change of the tropical Pacific under global warming. Using composite analysis with surface observations and subsurface ocean assimilation data sets, we find ENSO spatial structure diversity is closely associated with the CTM. A positive CTM tends to cool the SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific and warm the SST outside, as well as widen (narrow) zonal and meridional scales for El Niño (La Niña), and vice versa. Particularly in the positive CTM phase, the air-sea action center of El Niño moves west, resembling the spatial pattern of CP-El Niño. This westward shift of center is related to the weakened Bjerknes feedback (BF) intensity by the CTM. By suppressing the SSTA growth of El Niño in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the CTM contributes to more frequent occurrence of CP-El Niño under global warming.

  3. Role of stochastic forcing in ENSO in observations and a coupled GCM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kapur, Atul; Zhang, Chidong [University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami, FL (United States); Zavala-Garay, Javier [Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, New Brunswick, NJ (United States); Hendon, Harry H. [Bureau of Meteorology, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)


    A procedure is presented to estimate the role of atmospheric stochastic forcing (SF) in El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) simulated by a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM), in direct comparison to observations represented by a global reanalysis product. SF is extracted from the CGCM and reanalysis as surface wind anomalies linearly independent of the sea-surface temperature anomalies. Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is isolated from SF to quantify its role in ENSO. A coupled ocean-atmosphere model of intermediate complexity is forced with SF, as well as its MJO and non-MJO components, from the reanalysis and CGCM. The role of SF is estimated by comparing the original ENSO in observations and the CGCM with that reproduced by the intermediate model. ENSO statistics in both reanalysis and CGCM are better reproduced when the intermediate model is tuned to be weakly stable than unstable. The intermediate model driven by SF from the reanalysis reproduces most characteristics of observed ENSO, such as its spectrum, seasonal phase-locking, fast decorrelation of ENSO SST during boreal spring, and its lag-correlation with SF. In contrast, not all characteristics of ENSO in the CGCM are reproduced by the intermediate model when SF from the CGCM is used. The seasonal phase-locking of ENSO in the CGCM is not reproduced at all. ENSO, therefore, appears to be driven by SF to a lesser degree in the CGCM than in observations. Characteristics of observed ENSO reproduced by the intermediate model (driven by SF) can be largely attributed to the MJO; which, for instance, is responsible for the fast decorrelation of ENSO SST during boreal spring in both reanalysis and CGCM. The non-MJO component seems to be more responsible than the MJO for erroneous features of ENSO in the CGCM. (orig.)

  4. Modulation of ENSO evolution by strong tropical volcanic eruptions (United States)

    Wang, Tao; Guo, Dong; Gao, Yongqi; Wang, Huijun; Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Yali; Miao, Jiapeng; Hu, Yongyun


    The simulated responses of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to volcanic forcings are controversial, and some mechanisms of these responses are not clear. We investigate the impacts of volcanic forcing on the ENSO using a long-term simulation covering 1400-1999 as simulated by the Bergen Climate Model (BCM) and a group of simulations performed with the Community Atmosphere Model version 4.0 (CAM4) and the BCM's ocean component Miami Isopycanic Coordinated Ocean Model (MICOM). The analysis of the long-term BCM simulation indicates that ENSO has a negative-positive-negative response to strong tropical volcanic eruptions (SVEs), which corresponds to the different stages of volcanic forcing. In the initial forcing stage, a brief and weak La Niña-like response is caused by the cooling along the west coast of the South American continent and associated enhancement of the trade winds. In the peak forcing stage, westerly wind anomalies are excited by both reduced east-west sea level pressure gradients and weakened and equatorward shifted tropical convergence zones. These westerly wind anomalies extend to the equatorial eastern Pacific, leading to an El Niño-like response. At the same time, easterly wind anomalies west of 120°E and strong cooling effects can promote a discharged thermocline state and excite an upwelling Kelvin wave in the western Pacific. In the declining forcing stage, forced by the recovered trade winds, the upwelling Kelvin wave propagates eastward and reaches the equatorial eastern Pacific. Through the Bjerknes feedback, a strong and temporally extended La Niña-like response forms. Additional CAM4 simulations suggest a more important role of the surface cooling over the Maritime Continent and surrounding ocean in shaping the westerly wind anomalies over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific and the easterly wind anomalies west of 120° E, which are key to causing the El Niño-like responses and subsequent La Niña-like responses

  5. The role of South Pacific atmospheric variability in the development of different types of ENSO (United States)

    You, Yujia; Furtado, Jason C.


    Recent advances in tropical Pacific climate variability have focused on understanding the development of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, specifically the types or "flavors" of ENSO (i.e., central versus eastern Pacific events). While precursors to ENSO events exist, distinguishing the particular flavor of the expected ENSO event remains unresolved. This study offers a new look at ENSO predictability using South Pacific atmospheric variability during austral winter as an indicator. The positive phase of the leading mode of South Pacific sea level pressure variability, which we term the South Pacific Oscillation (SPO), exhibits a meridional dipole with with a(n) (anti)cyclonic anomaly dominating the subtropics (extratropics/high latitudes). Once energized, the cyclonic anomalies in the subtropical node of the SPO weaken the southeasterly trade winds and promote the charging of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, giving rise to eastern Pacific ENSO events. Indeed, the type of ENSO event can be determined accurately using only the magnitude and phase of the SPO during austral winter as a predictor (17 out of 23 cases). The SPO may also play a role in explaining the asymmetry of warm and cold events. Collectively, our findings present a new perspective on ENSO-South Pacific interactions that can advance overall understanding of the ENSO system and enhance its predictability across multiple timescales.

  6. Changes in El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions during the Younger Dryas revealed by New Zealand tree-rings. (United States)

    Palmer, Jonathan; Turney, Chris; Cook, Edward; Fenwick, Pavla; Thomas, Zoë; Helle, Gerhard; Jones, Richard; Clement, Amy; Hogg, Alan; Southon, John; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher; Staff, Richard; Muscheler, Raimund; Corrège, Thierry; Hua, Quan


    The warming trend at the end of the last glacial was disrupted by rapid cooling clearly identified in Greenland (Greenland Stadial 1 or GS-1) and Europe (Younger Dryas Stadial or YD). This reversal to glacial-like conditions is one of the best known examples of abrupt change but the exact timing and global spatial extent remains uncertain. Whilst the wider Atlantic region has a network of high-resolution proxy records spanning the YD, the Pacific Ocean suffers from a scarcity of sub-decadally resolved sequences. Here we report the results from an investigation into a tree-ring chronology from northern New Zealand aimed at addressing the paucity of data. The conifer tree species kauri (Agathis australis) is known from contemporary studies to be sensitive to regional climate changes. An analysis of a 'historic' 452-year kauri chronology confirms a tropical-Pacific teleconnection via the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We then focus our study to a 1010-year subfossil kauri chronology that has been precisely dated by comprehensive radiocarbon dating and contains a striking ring-width downturn between 12,500 to 12,380 cal BP within the YD. Wavelet analysis shows a marked increase in ENSO-like periodicities occurring after the downturn event. Comparison to low- and mid-latitude Pacific records suggests a coherency in the changes to ENSO and Southern Hemisphere westerly airflow during this period. The drivers for this climate event remain unclear but may be related to solar changes that subsequently led to establishment and/or increased expression of ENSO across the mid-latitudes of the Pacific, seemingly independent of the Atlantic and polar regions.

  7. On the skill of seasonal sea surface temperature forecasts in the California Current System and its connection to ENSO variability (United States)

    Jacox, Michael G.; Alexander, Michael A.; Stock, Charles A.; Hervieux, Gaëlle


    The California Current System (CCS) is a biologically productive Eastern Boundary Upwelling System that experiences considerable environmental variability on seasonal and interannual timescales. Given that this variability drives changes in ecologically and economically important living marine resources, predictive skill for regional oceanographic conditions is highly desirable. Here, we assess the skill of seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts in the CCS using output from Global Climate Forecast Systems in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), and describe mechanisms that underlie SST predictability. A simple persistence forecast provides considerable skill for lead times up to 4 months, while skill above persistence is mostly confined to forecasts of late winter/spring and derives primarily from predictable evolution of ENSO-related variability. Specifically, anomalously weak (strong) equatorward winds are skillfully forecast during El Niño (La Niña) events, and drive negative (positive) upwelling anomalies and consequently warm (cold) temperature anomalies. This mechanism prevails during moderate to strong ENSO events, while years of ENSO-neutral conditions are not associated with significant forecast skill in the wind or significant skill above persistence in SST. We find also a strong latitudinal gradient in predictability within the CCS; SST forecast skill is highest off the Washington/Oregon coast and lowest off southern California, consistent with variable wind forcing being the dominant driver of SST predictability. These findings have direct implications for regional downscaling of seasonal forecasts and for short-term management of living marine resources.

  8. Influence of ENSO events on the freshwater discharge pattern at Patos Lagoon, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil (United States)

    Barros, G. P.; Marques, W. C.


    The aim of this study is to investigate the influence and importance of ENSO events on the control of the freshwater discharge pattern at Patos Lagoon, in timescales longer than one year. For this study it was used freshwater discharge, water levels and South Oscillation Index (SOI) data sets. The Southern Oscillation Index, or SOI, gives an indication of the development and intensity of El Niño or La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean. Sustained negative values of the SOI greater than -8 often indicate El Niño episodes. Sustained positive values of the SOI greater than +8 are typical of a La Niña episode. Cross wavelet technique is applied to examine the coherence and phase between interannual time-series (South Oscillation Index, freshwater discharge and water levels). Over synoptic time scales, wind action is the most effective forcing in Patos Lagoon's circulation. However, at longer time scales (over one year), freshwater discharge becomes the most important forcing, controling the water levels, circulation and other processes. At longer time scales, South America is affected by ENSO's influence. El Niño is the South Oscillation phase where the trade winds are weak, the pressure is low over the eastern Tropical Pacific and high on the west side. The south region of Brazil shows precipitation anomalies associated with the ENSO occurrence. The most significant ENSO events show a high temporal variability, which may occur in near biannual scales (1.5 - 3 years) or in lower frequencies (3 years - 7 years). The freshwater discharge of the main tributaries and water levels in Patos Lagoon are influenced by ENSO on interannual scales (cycles between 3.8 and 6 years). Therefore, El Niño events are associated with high mean values of freshwater discharge and water levels above the mean. On the other hand, La Niña events are associated with low mean values of freshwater discharge and water levels below the mean. These results are consistent with analysis related to

  9. Differential imprints of different ENSO flavors in global patterns of seasonal precipitation extremes (United States)

    Wiedermann, Marc; Siegmund, Jonatan F.; Donges, Jonathan F.; Donner, Reik V.


    The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with its positive (El Nino) and negative (La Nina) phases is known to trigger climatic responses in various parts of the Earth, an effect commonly attributed to teleconnectivity. A series of studies has demonstrated that El Nino periods exhibits a relatively broad variety of spatial patterns, which can be classified into two main flavors termed East Pacific (EP, canonical) and Central Pacific (CP, Modoki) El Nino, and that both subtypes can trigger distinct climatic responses like droughts vs. precipitation increases at the regional level. More recently, a similar discrimination of La Nina periods into two different flavors has been reported, and it is reasonable to assume that these different expressions are equally accompanied by differential responses of regional climate variability in particularly affected regions. In this work, we study in great detail the imprints of both types of El Nino and La Nina periods in extremal seasonal precipitation sums during fall (SON), winter (DJF) and spring (MAM) around the peak time of the corresponding ENSO phase. For this purpose, we employ a recently developed objective classification of El Nino and La Nina periods into their two respective flavors based on global teleconnectivity patterns in daily surface air temperature anomalies as captured by the associated climate network representations (Wiedermann et al., 2016). In order to study the statistical relevance of the timing of different El Nino and La Nina types on that of seasonal precipitation extremes around the globe (according to the GPCC data set as a reference), we utilize event coincidence analysis (Donges et al., 2016), a new powerful yet conceptually simple and intuitive statistical tool that allows quantifying the degree of simultaneity of distinct events in pairs of time series. Our results provide a comprehensive overview on ENSO related imprints in regional seasonal precipitation extremes. We demonstrate that key

  10. Foot Morphometric Phenomena


    Agić, Ante


    Knowledge of the foot morphometry is important for proper foot structure and function. Foot structure as a vital part of human body is important for many reasons. The foot anthropometric and morphology phenomena are analyzed together with hidden biomechanical descriptors in order to fully characterize foot functionality. For Croatian student population the scatter data of the individual foot variables were interpolated by multivariate statistics. Foot morphometric descriptors are ...

  11. Transport phenomena II essentials

    CERN Document Server

    REA, The Editors of


    REA's Essentials provide quick and easy access to critical information in a variety of different fields, ranging from the most basic to the most advanced. As its name implies, these concise, comprehensive study guides summarize the essentials of the field covered. Essentials are helpful when preparing for exams, doing homework and will remain a lasting reference source for students, teachers, and professionals. Transport Phenomena II covers forced convention, temperature distribution, free convection, diffusitivity and the mechanism of mass transfer, convective mass transfer, concentration

  12. Paramutation phenomena in plants. (United States)

    Pilu, Roberto


    Paramutation is a particular epigenetic phenomenon discovered in Zea mays by Alexander Brink in the 1950s, and then also found in other plants and animals. Brink coined the term paramutation (from the Greek syllable "para" meaning beside, near, beyond, aside) in 1958, with the aim to differentiate paramutation from mutation. The peculiarity of paramutation with respect to other gene silencing phenomena consists in the ability of the silenced allele (named paramutagenic) to silence the other allele (paramutable) present in trans. The newly silenced (paramutated) allele remains stable in the next generations even after segregation from the paramutagenic allele and acquires paramutagenic ability itself. The inheritance behaviour of these epialleles permits a fast diffusion of a particular gene expression level/phenotype in a population even in the absence of other evolutionary influences, thus breaking the Hardy-Weinberg law. As with other gene silencing phenomena such as quelling in the fungus Neurospora crassa, transvection in Drosophila, co-suppression and virus-induced gene silencing (VIGS) described in transgenic plants and RNA interference (RNAi) in the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, paramutation occurs without changes in the DNA sequence. So far the molecular basis of paramutation remains not fully understood, although many studies point to the involvement of RNA causing changes in DNA methylation and chromatin structure of the silenced genes. In this review I summarize all paramutation phenomena described in plants, focusing on the similarities and differences between them. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Nonlinear Photonics and Novel Optical Phenomena

    CERN Document Server

    Morandotti, Roberto


    Nonlinear Photonics and Novel Optical Phenomena contains contributed chapters from leading experts in nonlinear optics and photonics, and provides a comprehensive survey of fundamental concepts as well as hot topics in current research on nonlinear optical waves and related novel phenomena. The book covers self-accelerating airy beams, integrated photonics based on high index doped-silica glass, linear and nonlinear spatial beam dynamics in photonic lattices and waveguide arrays, polariton solitons and localized structures in semiconductor microcavities, terahertz waves, and other novel phenomena in different nanophotonic and optical systems.

  14. Impacts of a Pinatubo-size volcanic eruption on ENSO

    KAUST Repository

    Predybaylo, Evgeniya


    Observations and model simulations of the climate responses to strong explosive low-latitude volcanic eruptions suggest a significant increase in the likelihood of El Niño during the eruption and posteruption years, though model results have been inconclusive and have varied in magnitude and even sign. In this study, we test how this spread of responses depends on the initial phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the eruption year and on the eruption\\'s seasonal timing. We employ the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2.1 global coupled general circulation model to investigate the impact of the Pinatubo 1991 eruption, assuming that in 1991 ENSO would otherwise be in central or eastern Pacific El Niño, La Niña, or neutral phases. We obtain statistically significant El Niño responses in a year after the eruption for all cases except La Niña, which shows no response in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The eruption has a weaker impact on eastern Pacific El Niños than on central Pacific El Niños. We find that the ocean dynamical thermostat and (to a lesser extent) wind changes due to land-ocean temperature gradients are the main feedbacks affecting El Niño development after the eruption. The El Niño responses to eruptions occurring in summer are more pronounced than for winter and spring eruptions. That the climate response depends on eruption season and initial ENSO phase may help to reconcile apparent inconsistencies among previous studies.

  15. ENSO Indices Based on Patterns of Satellite-Derived Precipitation. (United States)

    Curtis, Scott; Adler, Robert


    In this study, gridded observed precipitation datasets are used to construct rainfall-based ENSO indices. The monthly El Niño and La Niña indices (EI and LI) measure the steepest zonal gradient of precipitation anomalies between the equatorial Pacific and the Maritime Continent. This is accomplished by spatially averaging precipitation anomalies using a spatial boxcar filter, finding the maximum and minimum averages within a Pacific and Maritime Continent domain for each month, and taking differences. The EI and LI can be examined separately or combined to produce one El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) precipitation index (ESPI). ESPI is well correlated with traditional sea surface temperature (e.g., Niño-3.4) and pressure indices [e.g., Southern Oscillation index (SOI)], leading Niño-3.4 by a month. ESPI has a tendency to produce stronger La Niñas than does Niño-3.4 and SOI. One advantage satellite-derived precipitation indices have over more conventional indices is describing the strength and position of the Walker circulation. Examples are given of tracking the impact of recent ENSO events on the tropical precipitation fields. The 1982/83 and 1997/98 events were unique in that, during the transition from the warm to the cold phase, precipitation patterns associated with El Niño and La Niña were simultaneously strong. According to EI and ESPI, the 1997/98 El Niño was the strongest event over the past 20 years.

  16. North Pacific decadal variability: insights from a biennial ENSO environment (United States)

    Achuthavarier, Deepthi; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Vikhliaev, Yury V.


    This study examines the mechanisms of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) in the NASA GEOS-5 general circulation model (GCM). Similar to several other state-of-the-art GCMs, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) simulated by the GEOS-5 has a strong biennial periodicity. Since this is a model bias that precludes a strong role of ENSO, it provides a unique environment to assess the other leading mechanisms of North Pacific decadal variability. Despite the biennial ENSO periodicity, the model simulates a realistic PDO pattern in the North Pacific that is resolved as the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of winter mean sea surface temperature (SST). The spectrum of the PDO indicates no preferred periodicity. The SST anomalies associated with the PDO, particularly its basin wide structure, are primarily forced by the Aleutian low through Ekman transport. The slow geostrophic transport in association with the meridional adjustment of the subtropical gyre is limited to a narrow region in the Kuroshio-Oyashio extension, north of 40°N. The atmosphere's response to the PDO, while weak, projects onto the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), a meridional dipole in sea level pressure. Both the lack of preferred periodicity and the weak atmospheric response indicate an air-sea coupled oscillation is an unlikely mechanism in this model. In agreement with recent studies, the NPO is correlated with the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, which is another leading EOF of North Pacific SST variability. The results emphasize the role of atmospheric variability in the North Pacific SST modes, thereby bringing into question the potential for their predictability.

  17. ENSO impact on surface radiative fluxes as observed from space (United States)

    Pinker, R. T.; Grodsky, S. A.; Zhang, B.; Busalacchi, A.; Chen, W.


    We investigate the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on surface radiative fluxes over the tropical Pacific using satellite observations and fluxes derived from selected atmospheric reanalyses. Agreement between the two in this region is important because reanalysis information is frequently used to assess surface energy budget sensitivity to ENSO. We found that during the traditional ENSO, the maximum variance of anomalous incoming solar radiation is located just west of the dateline and coincides with the area of the largest anomalous SST gradient. It can reach up to 60 W/m2 and lags behind the Niño3 index by about a month, suggesting a response to anomalous SST gradient. The magnitude of longwave anomaly is only half that large and varies in phase with the SST anomaly. Similar anomalies were derived from outputs: from the European Centre for Medium-Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Interim (ERA-I), from the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis version 2 (MERRA-2), from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 (R1), and from the Japanese JRA55 reanalysis. Among the four reanalyses used, results from ERA-I are the closest to observations. We have also investigated the surface wind divergence/convergence and found that the main factor limiting eastward excursions of convection is the surface wind convergence. Due to the wind divergence pattern normally present over the eastern cold tongue, anomalous convection extends into the eastern equatorial Pacific only during the strongest warm events. Our analysis also considers the El Niño Modoki events, for which the radiation flux patterns are shifted westward following the SST pattern.

  18. The complex influence of ENSO on droughts in Ecuador

    KAUST Repository

    Vicente-Serrano, S. M.


    In this study, we analyzed the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the spatio-temporal variability of droughts in Ecuador for a 48-year period (1965–2012). Droughts were quantified from 22 high-quality and homogenized time series of precipitation and air temperature by means of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. In addition, the propagation of two different ENSO indices (El Niño 3.4 and El Niño 1 + 2 indices) and other atmospheric circulation processes (e.g., vertical velocity) on different time-scales of drought severity were investigated. The results showed a very complex influence of ENSO on drought behavior across Ecuador, with two regional patterns in the evolution of droughts: (1) the Andean chain with no changes in drought severity, and (2) the Western plains with less severe and frequent droughts. We also detected that drought variability in the Andes mountains is explained by the El Niño 3.4 index [sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central Pacific], whereas the Western plains are much more driven by El Niño 1 + 2 index (SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific). Moreover, it was also observed that El Niño and La Niña phases enhance droughts in the Andes and Western plains regions, respectively. The results of this work could be crucial for predicting and monitoring drought variability and intensity in Ecuador. © 2016 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

  19. ENSO impact on simulated South American hydro-climatology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Stuck


    Full Text Available The variability of the simulated hydro-climatology of the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM is analysed. Main object of this study is the ENSO-driven variability of the water storage of South America. The horizontal model resolution amounts to 0.5 degree and it is forced with monthly climate variables for 1961-1995 of the Tyndall Centre Climate Research Unit dataset (CRU TS 2.0 as a representation of the observed climate state. Secondly, the model is also forced by the model output of a global circulation model, the ECHAM4-T42 GCM. This model itself is driven by observed monthly means of the global Sea Surface Temperatures (SST and the sea ice coverage for the period of 1903 to 1994 (GISST. Thus, the climate model and the hydrological model represent a realistic simulated realisation of the hydro-climatologic state of the last century. Since four simulations of the ECHAM4 model with the same forcing, but with different initial conditions are carried out, an analysis of variance (ANOVA gives an impression of the impact of the varying SST on the hydro-climatology, because the variance can be separated into a SST-explained and a model internal variability (noise. Also regional multivariate analyses, like Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA provide information of the complex time-space variability. In particular the Amazon region and the South of Brazil are significantly influenced by the ENSO-variability, but also the Pacific coastal areas of Ecuador and Peru are affected. Additionally, different ENSO-indices, based on SST anomalies (e.g. NINO3.4, NINO1+2, and its influence on the South American hydro-climatology are analysed. Especially, the Pacific coast regions of Ecuador, Peru and Chile show a very different behaviour dependant on those indices.



    / /; Simei, XIE; Chenglan, BAO; Zhenhe, XUE; Lin, Zhang; Chunjiang, HAO


    In this paper, the theory of the cross-coupled correlation-resonance of two wave spectra is used to study the interaction between Antarctic sea ice and ENSO events. It is found that : (1) The principal period of the correlation time series oscillation is usually coincident with the principal period of sea ice itself. If the same periods of two elements were in resonance, the correlation oscillation period would be more significant. (2) The sea ice of the Ross Sea area with its principal perio...

  1. Influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the behavior of floods in the Itajaí River basin in Southern Brazil (United States)

    Tiago Silva, Artur; Portela, Maria Manuela; Naghettini, Mauro; Fernandes, Wilson


    The Itajaí River basin is located in the Southeastern South America (SESA) region, where the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on hydrometeorological extremes has been reported. The lower reaches of the river are prone to calamitous floods as the basin is frequently subjected to extreme rainfall events. The history of devastating floods motivated the construction of detention dams in the upper reaches of the river during the 1970s-1990s. This work presents a study on the nonstationarity of floods in the Itajaí River, using a peaks-over-threshold (POT) approach applied to flood data from 3 gauging stations located in the Basin. Exploratory data analysis methods and nonstationary Poisson-Generalized Pareto models are used to study the joint influence of ENSO and upstream flood control dams on the flood regime of the river. Bayesian model estimation techniques are used with prior belief about the Generalized Pareto shape parameter elicited from regional information. The analysis revealed that occurrence rate and over-threshold peak magnitudes exhibit statistically significant and complex relationships with ENSO. Results also show evidence that, while upstream flood detention dams play a perceptible, though small, role in reducing flood hazard, the influence of the climate covariate on the flood regime is dominant. Furthermore, increased ENSO activity in recent decades, possibly related to a reported climate regime shift in the mid-1970s, has increased flood hazard and led to the occurrence of very large annual floods.

  2. A synthesis of ENSO effects on drylands in Australia, North America and South America

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holmgren, M.; Stapp, P.; Dickman, C.; Gracia, C.; Graham, S.


    Fundamentally, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climatic and oceanographic phenomenon, but it has profound effects on terrestrial ecosystems. Although the ecological effects of ENSO are becoming increasingly known from a wide range of terrestrial ecosystems (Holmgren et al., 2001), their

  3. ENSO elicits opposing responses of semi-arid vegetation between Hemispheres (United States)

    Zhang, Anzhi; Jia, Gensuo; Epstein, Howard E.; Xia, Jiangjiang


    Semi-arid ecosystems are key contributors to the global carbon cycle and may even dominate the inter-annual variability (IAV) and trends of the land carbon sink, driven largely by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The linkages between dynamics of semi-arid ecosystems and climate at the hemispheric scale however are not well known. Here, we use satellite data and climate observations from 2000 to 2014 to explore the impacts of ENSO on variability of semi-arid ecosystems, using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method. We show that the responses of semi-arid vegetation to ENSO occur in opposite directions, resulting from opposing controls of ENSO on precipitation between the Northern Hemisphere (positively correlated to ENSO) and the Southern Hemisphere (negatively correlated to ENSO). Also, the Southern Hemisphere, with a robust negative coupling of temperature and precipitation anomalies, exhibits stronger and faster responses of semi-arid ecosystems to ENSO than the Northern Hemisphere. Our findings suggest that natural coherent variability in semi-arid ecosystem productivity responded to ENSO in opposite ways between two hemispheres, which may imply potential prediction of global semi-arid ecosystem variability, particularly based on variability in tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures. PMID:28181570

  4. ENSO elicits opposing responses of semi-arid vegetation between Hemispheres. (United States)

    Zhang, Anzhi; Jia, Gensuo; Epstein, Howard E; Xia, Jiangjiang


    Semi-arid ecosystems are key contributors to the global carbon cycle and may even dominate the inter-annual variability (IAV) and trends of the land carbon sink, driven largely by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The linkages between dynamics of semi-arid ecosystems and climate at the hemispheric scale however are not well known. Here, we use satellite data and climate observations from 2000 to 2014 to explore the impacts of ENSO on variability of semi-arid ecosystems, using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method. We show that the responses of semi-arid vegetation to ENSO occur in opposite directions, resulting from opposing controls of ENSO on precipitation between the Northern Hemisphere (positively correlated to ENSO) and the Southern Hemisphere (negatively correlated to ENSO). Also, the Southern Hemisphere, with a robust negative coupling of temperature and precipitation anomalies, exhibits stronger and faster responses of semi-arid ecosystems to ENSO than the Northern Hemisphere. Our findings suggest that natural coherent variability in semi-arid ecosystem productivity responded to ENSO in opposite ways between two hemispheres, which may imply potential prediction of global semi-arid ecosystem variability, particularly based on variability in tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures.

  5. Imavere Sawmill is Stora Ensos Jewel in the Region / Seppo Vainio ; interv. Toivo Tänavsuu

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Vainio, Seppo


    Skandinaavia metsanduskontserni Stora Enso Timberi tegevuse juht Baltikumis vastab küsimustele, mis puudutavad Eesti suurima metsatööstuse Sylvesteri ostu 2003. aastal, Baltikumi üksuste osa Stora Enso tegevuses, Imavere saeveski valimist aasta välisinvestoriks. Vt. samas: Imavere saeveski eile ja täna. Tabel: "Välisinvestor 2004" nominendid

  6. How Volatile is ENSO for Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Global Economy?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L. Chu (LanFen); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C-C. Chen (Chi-Chung)


    textabstractThis paper analyzes two indexes in order to capture the volatility inherent in El Niños Southern Oscillations (ENSO), develops the relationship between the strength of ENSO and greenhouse gas emissions, which increase as the economy grows, with carbon dioxide being the major

  7. How Volatile is ENSO for Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Global Economy?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L-F. Chu (Lan-Fen); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C-C. Chen (Chi-Chung)


    textabstractThis paper analyzes two indexes in order to capture the volatility inherent in El Niños Southern Oscillations (ENSO), develops the relationship between the strength of ENSO and greenhouse gas emissions, which increase as the economy grows, with carbon dioxide being the major greenhouse

  8. Enso-like cyclicity In Late Pleistocene varve thickness measurements from two alpine lakes, Wind River Range, Wyoming, USA (United States)

    Dahms, D. E.; Noren, A. J.; Geiss, C. E.; Dorale, J. A.; Myrbo, A.


    Spectral analyses of varve thickness measurements in sediment cores from two moraine-dammed lakes in the Wind River Range of Wyoming, USA, reveal a 2.8-to-8-yr cyclicity consistent with that expressed by ENSO. The lakes [Louis Lake (42.596°N,108.846°W, 2610 m and nearby Fiddlers Lake 42.6312°N, 108.8786°W, 2868 m] and hold the possibility of longer records of mid-continental climate change even into the last interglacial. Nine macrofossil-based 14C ages (AMS) combined with varve thicknesses indicate the lakes were deep enough during the LGM to form and preserve varves and that the minimum age for the lacustrine sediments here is ~20 kyrs. The ENSO signal is most robust in the Louis Lake varves, displaying high spectral power across the entire band of frequencies associated with ENSO. Analysis of the Fiddlers Lake varves yield predictably less significant results, a consequence of the different geomorphic settings of these two lakes. Specifically, (1) Louis Lake has a large catchment and receives surface water input from a stream, which has delivered a large quantity of sediment to the lake margin and deposited a substantial delta. In this setting, variations in precipitation appear closely linked to sediment delivery to the lake, and are reflected in sediment distributions, while (2) Fiddlers Lake is located in a small re-entrant basin with a relatively insignificant catchment area and fed almost entirely by groundwater and direct rain/snow events, with little surface runoff; (3) the deeper water of Louis Lake aids in the formation and preservation of varves, while (4) lake level fluctuations in the shallower Fiddlers Lake directly affect varve creation and preservation (the onset of glaciation in the Fiddlers Lake core is represented by thick sediment packages that eventually thin to varves by ~1m up-core). The significant ENSO-like periodicities in the the varved sediments in these lakes suggests that the effects of ENSO forcing were felt far into the western

  9. Transport phenomena I essentials

    CERN Document Server

    REA, The Editors of


    REA's Essentials provide quick and easy access to critical information in a variety of different fields, ranging from the most basic to the most advanced. As its name implies, these concise, comprehensive study guides summarize the essentials of the field covered. Essentials are helpful when preparing for exams, doing homework and will remain a lasting reference source for students, teachers, and professionals. Transport Phenomena I includes viscosity, flow of Newtonian fluids, velocity distribution in laminar flow, velocity distributions with more than one independent variable, thermal con

  10. Solid state phenomena

    CERN Document Server

    Lawrance, R


    Solid State Phenomena explores the fundamentals of the structure and their influence on the properties of solids. This book is composed of five chapters that focus on the electrical and thermal conductivities of crystalline solids. Chapter 1 describes the nature of solids, particularly metals and crystalline materials. This chapter also presents a model to evaluate crystal structure, the forces between atom pairs, and the mechanism of plastic and elastic deformation. Chapter 2 demonstrates random vibrations of atoms in a solid using a one-dimensional array, while Chapter 3 examines the resista

  11. ENSO variability in the western tropical Pacific during the 20th and 14th centuries: preliminary results from a ~700 year coral (United States)

    Gorman, M. K.; Quinn, T. M.; Taylor, F. W.; Shen, C.; Maupin, C. R.; Wu, C.


    Understanding El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability prior to anthropogenic influence is crucial to understanding natural climate variability and to informing predictions of future climate change. Coral-based climate records from ENSO-sensitive regions provide unique high-resolution archives of past ENSO variability. However, the massive coral most commonly used in climate studies, Porites spp., rarely provide climate record lengths in excess of 200 years. This presents a challenge because recent work suggests that proxy records of ENSO variability need to exceed 500 years in length in order to capture the full range of natural variability of the ENSO system. Here we present preliminary oxygen isotope (δ18O) data from a slower growing, ~700 year long Diploastrea heliopora coral from Lambumbu Bay, Vanuatu (LBV; 16.19°S, 167.39°E), located at the southern edge of the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). Coral-based climate records from this region have been shown to be reliable recorders of ENSO-related variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). The LBV coral was drilled live in 2010 and the bottom of the coral has a U-Th date of 1228 ± 10 CE. Our initial focus is to characterize and compare the geochemical variability recorded in the oldest (14th century) and youngest (20th century) sections of the coral. We observe a δ18O anomaly during the 14th century similar in magnitude to the δ18O anomaly associated with the 1997-1998 ENSO warm-phase event. We also observe that coral δ18O values in the 14th century are enriched by ~ 0.9‰, relative to modern coral δ18O values, which likely reflects salinity differences. Finally, 20th century coral δ18O variability agrees well with a previously published δ18O record from a Porites lutea coral (Sabine Bank, Vanuatu, ~130 km away) providing us with confidence in using Diploastrea heliopora corals for multicentury, continuous coral-based paleoclimate reconstructions.

  12. Revisiting the Indian summer monsoon-ENSO links in the IPCC AR4 projections: A cautionary outlook (United States)

    Roxy, Mathew; Patil, Nitin; Aparna, K.; Ashok, Karumuri


    The climate change experiments under the fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), namely the twentieth century simulations (20C3M) and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B, are revisited to study whether these models can reproduce the ENSO and ENSO Modoki patterns as the two important modes from statistical linear analysis as observed. The capability of the models in simulating realistic ENSO/ENSO Modoki teleconnections with the Indian summer monsoon, and also the implications for the future are also explored. Results from the study indicate that only ~ 1/4th of the models from 20C3M capture either ENSO or ENSO Modoki pattern in JJAS. Of this 1/4th, only two models simulate both ENSO and ENSO Modoki as important modes. Again, out of these two, only one model simulates both ENSO and ENSO Modoki as important modes during both summer and winter. It is also shown that the two models that demonstrate ENSO Modoki as well as ENSO associated variance in both 20C3M and SRESA1B represent the links of the ISMR with ENSO reasonably in 20C3M, but indicate opposite type of impacts in SREA1B. With the limited skills of the models in reproducing the monsoon, the ENSO and ENSO Modoki, it is difficult to reconcile that the teleconnections of a tropical driver can change like that. All these indicate the challenges associated with the limitations of the models in reproducing the variability of the monsoons and ENSO flavors, not to speak of failing in capturing the potential impacts of global warming as they are expected to. More research in improving the current day simulations, improving model capacity to simulate better by improving the Green House Gases (GHG) and aerosols in the models are some of the important and immediate steps that are necessary.

  13. Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Power, S.; Casey, T. (Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)); Folland, C.; Colman, A. (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Meteorological Office, Bracknell, Berkshire (United Kingdom)); Mehta, V. (Joint Center for Earth System Science, University of Maryland/NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, MD (United States))


    The success of an ENSO-based statistical rainfall prediction scheme and the influence of ENSO on Australia are shown to vary in association with a coherent, interdecadal oscillation in surface temperature over the Pacific ocean. When this interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) raises temperatures in the tropical Pacific ocean, there is no robust relationship between year-to-year Australian climate variations and ENSO. When the IPO lowers temperature in the same region, on the other hand, year-to-year ENSO variability is closely associated with year-to-year variability in rainfall, surface temperature, river flow and the domestic wheat crop yield. The contrast in ENSO's influence between the two phases of the IPO is quite remarkable. This highlights exciting new avenues for obtaining improved climate predictions. (orig.) With 4 figs., 2 tabs., 25 refs.


    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)



    This project developed and supported a technology base in nonequilibrium phenomena underpinning fundamental issues in condensed matter and materials science, and applied this technology to selected problems. In this way the increasingly sophisticated synthesis and characterization available for classes of complex electronic and structural materials provided a testbed for nonlinear science, while nonlinear and nonequilibrium techniques helped advance our understanding of the scientific principles underlying the control of material microstructure, their evolution, fundamental to macroscopic functionalities. The project focused on overlapping areas of emerging thrusts and programs in the Los Alamos materials community for which nonlinear and nonequilibrium approaches will have decisive roles and where productive teamwork among elements of modeling, simulations, synthesis, characterization and applications could be anticipated--particularly multiscale and nonequilibrium phenomena, and complex matter in and between fields of soft, hard and biomimetic materials. Principal topics were: (i) Complex organic and inorganic electronic materials, including hard, soft and biomimetic materials, self-assembly processes and photophysics; (ii) Microstructure and evolution in multiscale and hierarchical materials, including dynamic fracture and friction, dislocation and large-scale deformation, metastability, and inhomogeneity; and (iii) Equilibrium and nonequilibrium phases and phase transformations, emphasizing competing interactions, frustration, landscapes, glassy and stochastic dynamics, and energy focusing.

  15. Evidences linking ENSO and coral growth in the Southwestern-South Atlantic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evangelista, H. [LARAMG, Laboratorio de Radioecologia e Mudancas Globais/DBB/UERJ. Pav. HLC, Subsolo, Maracana, RJ (Brazil); Godiva, D. [LARAMG, Laboratorio de Radioecologia e Mudancas Globais/DBB/UERJ. Pav. HLC, Subsolo, Maracana, RJ (Brazil); Universidade Federal Fluminense, Outeiro Sao Joao Batista, s/n, Centro, Departamento de Geoquimica Ambiental, Niteroi, RJ (Brazil); Sifeddine, A. [IRD, Institut de Recherche Pour le Developpement, UR055 Paleotropique, Bondy (France); Universidade Federal Fluminense, Outeiro Sao Joao Batista, s/n, Centro, Departamento de Geoquimica Ambiental, Niteroi, RJ (Brazil); Leao, Z.M.A.N.; Kikuchi, R.K.P. [UFBA/Instituto de Geociencias. Rua Barao de Geremoabo, s/n, Federacao, Salvador, BA (Brazil); Rigozo, N.R. [LARAMG, Laboratorio de Radioecologia e Mudancas Globais/DBB/UERJ. Pav. HLC, Subsolo, Maracana, RJ (Brazil); FAETEC, Faculdade de Educacao e Tecnologia Thereza Porto Marques, Jacarei, SP (Brazil); Segal, B. [UFRJ/Museu Nacional/Setor de Celenterologia/Departamento de Invertebrados, Quinta da Boa Vista s/n, Sao Cristovao, RJ (Brazil); Ambrizzi, T. [USP/Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Kampel, M. [INPE/Divisao de Sensoriamento Remoto, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Cornec, F. le [Universidade Federal Fluminense, Outeiro Sao Joao Batista, s/n, Centro, Departamento de Geoquimica Ambiental, Niteroi, RJ (Brazil)


    Physical and biological changes in the marine environment, induced by oceanic-atmospheric processes, can be imprinted in massive coral skeletons. Herein, we present an evidence of potential El Nino impacts at the Southwestern South Atlantic Ocean (SWSA) inferred from the sclerochronology of the reef coral Favia leptophylla. The application of spectral analysis (wavelet decomposition and the iterative regression) to coral growth length and to meteorological-oceanographic parameters (air temperature, sea surface temperature and precipitation) as well as to Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and solar irradiation indicated a major significant inverse relationship between SOI and coral growth length at the 4-8 years frequency band. We propose here that coral growth length from the SWSA could be affected by El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events through an ''atmospheric bridge'', in contrast to its direct effect at the Pacific Ocean, related to the increase in sea surface temperature. (orig.)

  16. Classifying prion and prion-like phenomena. (United States)

    Harbi, Djamel; Harrison, Paul M


    The universe of prion and prion-like phenomena has expanded significantly in the past several years. Here, we overview the challenges in classifying this data informatically, given that terms such as "prion-like", "prion-related" or "prion-forming" do not have a stable meaning in the scientific literature. We examine the spectrum of proteins that have been described in the literature as forming prions, and discuss how "prion" can have a range of meaning, with a strict definition being for demonstration of infection with in vitro-derived recombinant prions. We suggest that although prion/prion-like phenomena can largely be apportioned into a small number of broad groups dependent on the type of transmissibility evidence for them, as new phenomena are discovered in the coming years, a detailed ontological approach might be necessary that allows for subtle definition of different "flavors" of prion / prion-like phenomena.

  17. High Temperature Phenomena in Shock Waves

    CERN Document Server


    The high temperatures generated in gases by shock waves give rise to physical and chemical phenomena such as molecular vibrational excitation, dissociation, ionization, chemical reactions and inherently related radiation. In continuum regime, these processes start from the wave front, so that generally the gaseous media behind shock waves may be in a thermodynamic and chemical non-equilibrium state. This book presents the state of knowledge of these phenomena. Thus, the thermodynamic properties of high temperature gases, including the plasma state are described, as well as the kinetics of the various chemical phenomena cited above. Numerous results of measurement and computation of vibrational relaxation times, dissociation and reaction rate constants are given, and various ionization and radiative mechanisms and processes are presented. The coupling between these different phenomena is taken into account as well as their interaction with the flow-field. Particular points such as the case of rarefied flows an...

  18. Rock-falls and liquefaction related phenomena triggered by the June 8, 2008, Mw=6.4 earthquake in NW Peloponnesus, Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Spyros Pavlides


    Full Text Available A strong earthquake (Mw=6.4 occurred in NW Peloponnesus, Greece, on June 8, 2008. The focal mechanism shows a transcurrent kinematics, and based on aftershocks distribution the causative fault is a dextral strike-slip NNE-SSW trending structure. The shock generated severe secondary environmental effects like rock-falls and liquefaction phenomena inducing structural damages and ground failures mainly along the fault strike. Evidence of liquefaction was observed in the area of Kato Achaia and Roupakia villages, while rock-falls were triggered mainly close to the epicentre at the foothills of the Skolis Mountain. Based on a quantitative methodological approach, the ground deformation and failures generated by the event have been investigated. In particular, based on an immediate post-event survey, we mapped in detail the distribution of the earthquake-induced ground failures, defining the areas prone to liquefaction and their associated potential. Moreover, a rock-fall hazard zonation in the area of Skolis Mountain has been developed based on the shadow angle approach, confirming the validity of the safety run-out distance models.

  19. Critical Phenomena in Gravitational Collapse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martín-García José M.


    Full Text Available As first discovered by Choptuik, the black hole threshold in the space of initial data for general relativity shows both surprising structure and surprising simplicity. Universality, power-law scaling of the black hole mass, and scale echoing have given rise to the term “critical phenomena”. They are explained by the existence of exact solutions which are attractors within the black hole threshold, that is, attractors of codimension one in phase space, and which are typically self-similar. Critical phenomena give a natural route from smooth initial data to arbitrarily large curvatures visible from infinity, and are therefore likely to be relevant for cosmic censorship, quantum gravity, astrophysics, and our general understanding of the dynamics of general relativity.

  20. Functional theories of thermoelectric phenomena (United States)

    Eich, F. G.; Di Ventra, M.; Vignale, G.


    We review the progress that has been recently made in the application of time-dependent density functional theory to thermoelectric phenomena. As the field is very young, we emphasize open problems and fundamental issues. We begin by introducing the formal structure of thermal density functional theory, a density functional theory with two basic variables—the density and the energy density—and two conjugate fields—the ordinary scalar potential and Luttinger’s thermomechanical potential. The static version of this theory is contrasted with the familiar finite-temperature density functional theory, in which only the density is a variable. We then proceed to constructing the full time-dependent non equilibrium theory, including the practically important Kohn-Sham equations that go with it. The theory is shown to recover standard results of the Landauer theory for thermal transport in the steady state, while showing greater flexibility by allowing a description of fast thermal response, temperature oscillations and related phenomena. Several results are presented here for the first time, i.e. the proof of invertibility of the thermal response function in the linear regime, the full expression of the thermal currents in the presence of Luttinger’s thermomechanical potential, an explicit prescription for the evaluation of the Kohn-Sham potentials in the adiabatic local density approximation, a detailed discussion of the leading dissipative corrections to the adiabatic local density approximation and the thermal corrections to the resistivity that follow from it.

  1. ENSO/PDO-Like Variability of Tropical Ocean Surface Energy Fluxes Over the Satellite Era (United States)

    Robertson, F. R.; Miller, Tim L.


    Recent variations of tropical climate on interannual to near-decadal scales have provided a useful target for studying the nature of climate feedback processes. A strong warm / cold ENSO couplet (e.g. 1997-2000) along with several subsequent weaker events are prominent interannual signals that are part of an apparent longer term strengthening of the Walker circulation during the mid to late 1990's with some weakening thereafter. Decadal scale changes in tropical SST structure during the 1990s are accompanied by focusing of precipitation over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and an increase in tropical ocean evaporation of order 1.0 % /decade. Associated with ENSO and PDO-like tropical SST changes are surface freshwater and radiative fluxes which have important implications for heat and energy transport variations. In this study we examine how surface fluxes attending interannual to decadal SST fluctuations, e.g. precipitation (GPCP, TRMM), turbulent fluxes (OAFlux), and radiative fluxes (ERBE/CERES, SRB) are coupled. Using these data we analyze vertically-integrated divergence of moist static energy, divMSE, and its dry static energy and latent energy components. We examine consistency between these data sets and explore relationships between SST variations, flux changes and modulation of tropical Walker and Hadley circulations. Strong signatures ofMSE flux transport linking ascending and descending regions of tropical circulations are found. Relative strengths of these fluxes and transports are interpreted as a measure of efficiency in the overall process of tropical heat balance during episodes of warm or cold tropical SST.

  2. Empirical modelling of ENSO dynamics: construction of optimal complexity models from data (United States)

    Mukhina, A.; Kondrashov, D.; Mukhin, D.


    One of the main problems arising in modelling of data taken from natural system is finding of a phase space suitable for construction of the evolution operator model. The matter is we ususaly deal with strongly high-dimensional behavior and we are forced to construct a model working in some projection of system phase space corresponding to time scales of interest. Selection of optimal projecion is non-trivial problem since there are many ways to reconstruct phase variables from given time series, especially in the case when time series has a form of spatial field depending on time. Actually, it is sort of model selection problem, because, on the one hand, the transformation of data to some phase variables vector can be considered as a part of the model. On the other hand, such an optimization of a phase space makes sense only in relation to the parameterization of the model we use, i.e. representation of evolution operator, so we should find an optimal structure of the model togerther with phase variables vector. In this work we suggest Bayesian approach to this problem: a prior set of the models of different complexity is defined, then posterior probabilities of each model from this set given the data are calculated, and the model corresponding to largest probability is selected. The suggested approach is applied to optimization of EMR-model of ENSO phenomenon elaborated by Kondrashov et. al. This model operates with number of principal EOFs constructed from spatial field of SST in Equatorial Pacific, and has a form of stochastic differential equations (SDE) system with polynomial parameterization of the right-hand part. Optimal values for both the number of EOFs and the order of SDE system are estimated from the time series generated by Jin & Neelin intermediate ENSO model.

  3. Different types of drifts in two seasonal forecast systems and their dependence on ENSO (United States)

    Hermanson, L.; Ren, H.-L.; Vellinga, M.; Dunstone, N. D.; Hyder, P.; Ineson, S.; Scaife, A. A.; Smith, D. M.; Thompson, V.; Tian, B.; Williams, K. D.


    Seasonal forecasts using coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models are increasingly employed to provide regional climate predictions. For the quality of forecasts to improve, regional biases in climate models must be diagnosed and reduced. The evolution of biases as initialized forecasts drift away from the observations is poorly understood, making it difficult to diagnose the causes of climate model biases. This study uses two seasonal forecast systems to examine drifts in sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation, and compares them to the long-term bias in the free-running version of each model. Drifts are considered from daily to multi-annual time scales. We define three types of drift according to their relation with the long-term bias in the free-running model: asymptoting, overshooting and inverse drift. We find that precipitation almost always has an asymptoting drift. SST drifts on the other hand, vary between forecasting systems, where one often overshoots and the other often has an inverse drift. We find that some drifts evolve too slowly to have an impact on seasonal forecasts, even though they are important for climate projections. The bias found over the first few days can be very different from that in the free-running model, so although daily weather predictions can sometimes provide useful information on the causes of climate biases, this is not always the case. We also find that the magnitude of equatorial SST drifts, both in the Pacific and other ocean basins, depends on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase. Averaging over all hindcast years can therefore hide the details of ENSO state dependent drifts and obscure the underlying physical causes. Our results highlight the need to consider biases across a range of timescales in order to understand their causes and develop improved climate models.

  4. PDO modulation of ENSO effect on tropical cyclone rapid intensification in the western North Pacific (United States)

    Wang, Xidong; Liu, Hailong


    This study investigates how the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) modulates the effect of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on tropical cyclone rapid intensification (RI) in the western North Pacific. The analysis shows that the interannual relationship between ENSO and annual RI number in warm PDO phases is strong and statistically significant. In cold PDO phases, however, there is no significant correlation between ENSO and RI on the interannual timescale. The enhancement of the interannual ENSO-RI relationship in warm PDO phases is mainly attributable to the change of the environmental vertical wind shear. The PDO in warm (cold) phases can strengthen (weaken) an El Niño event to increase (reduce) the effects of the warm pool of water over the equatorial Pacific in typhoon season by local diabatic heating. El Niño events are accompanied by the stronger Walker circulation in the equatorial Pacific in the warm PDO phase than in the cold PDO phase. In contrast, the Walker circulation pattern and amplitude associated with La Niña events is less affected by the alternate PDO phase. This tends to make the atmospheric response to ENSO stronger (weaker) in warm (cold) PDO phase, and so is the atmospheric teleconnection of ENSO. Our results indicate that the stratification of ENSO-based statistical RI forecast by the PDO can greatly improve the accuracy of statistical RI predictions.

  5. Drivers of coupled model ENSO error dynamics and the spring predictability barrier (United States)

    Larson, Sarah M.; Kirtman, Ben P.


    Despite recent improvements in ENSO simulations, ENSO predictions ultimately remain limited by error growth and model inadequacies. Determining the accompanying dynamical processes that drive the growth of certain types of errors may help the community better recognize which error sources provide an intrinsic limit to predictability. This study applies a dynamical analysis to previously developed CCSM4 error ensemble experiments that have been used to model noise-driven error growth. Analysis reveals that ENSO-independent error growth is instigated via a coupled instability mechanism. Daily error fields indicate that persistent stochastic zonal wind stress perturbations (τx^' } ) near the equatorial dateline activate the coupled instability, first driving local SST and anomalous zonal current changes that then induce upwelling anomalies and a clear thermocline response. In particular, March presents a window of opportunity for stochastic τx^' } to impose a lasting influence on the evolution of eastern Pacific SST through December, suggesting that stochastic τx^' } is an important contributor to the spring predictability barrier. Stochastic winds occurring in other months only temporarily affect eastern Pacific SST for 2-3 months. Comparison of a control simulation with an ENSO cycle and the ENSO-independent error ensemble experiments reveals that once the instability is initiated, the subsequent error growth is modulated via an ENSO-like mechanism, namely the seasonal strength of the Bjerknes feedback. Furthermore, unlike ENSO events that exhibit growth through the fall, the growth of ENSO-independent SST errors terminates once the seasonal strength of the Bjerknes feedback weakens in fall. Results imply that the heat content supplied by the subsurface precursor preceding the onset of an ENSO event is paramount to maintaining the growth of the instability (or event) through fall.

  6. Intensification of terrestrial carbon cycle related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation under greenhouse warming. (United States)

    Kim, Jin-Soo; Kug, Jong-Seong; Jeong, Su-Jong


    The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives interannual variation in the global carbon cycle. However, the relationship between ENSO and the carbon cycle can be modulated by climate change due to anthropogenic forcing. We show herein that the sensitivity of the terrestrial carbon flux to ENSO will be enhanced under greenhouse warming by 44% ( ± 15%), indicating a future amplification of carbon-climate interactions. Separating the contributions of the changes in carbon sensitivity reveals that the response of land surface temperature to ENSO and the sensitivity of gross primary production to local temperature are significantly enhanced under greenhouse warming, thereby amplifying the ENSO-carbon-cycle coupling. In a warm climate, depletion of soil moisture increases temperature response in a given ENSO event. These findings suggest that the ENSO-related carbon cycle will be enhanced by hydroclimate changes caused by anthropogenic forcing.

  7. Un análisis de la estructura termal de la estación costera 'La Libertad' y su relación con los eventos ENSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    Full Text Available ANALYSE DE LA STRUCTURE THERMIQUE DE L’OCEAN A LA STATION «LA LIBERTAD» ET DE SA RELATION AVEC L’ENSO. L’Institut Océanographique Militaire (INOCAR assure tous les 20 jours, depuis 1990, des mesures dans une colonne d’eau de 100 m de profondeur, à dix milles au large du port équatorien de La Libertad, situé dans la Péninsule de Santa Helena. On y observe des ondes équatoriales qui provoquent une augmentation du niveau moyen de l’eau et un enfoncement des isothermes, ce qui permet de considérer que leur distribution est liée à l’apparition des événements ENSO. Nous avons déterminé par ailleurs la relation entre le niveau moyen de l’océan et la profondeur des isothermes. Pour cela nous avons choisi l’isotherme de 20°C que l’on supposera représentative de la distribution thermique (de l’océan dans cette station côtière. El Instituto Oceanográfico de la Armada (INOCAR mantiene desde 1990 hasta la fecha una estación costera a 10 millas náuticas frente a las costa del puerto de La Libertad (Península de Santa Elena, en la que se efectúa un muestreo de toda la columna de agua desde la superficie hasta los 100 m de profundidad, cada 20 días. Del análisis preliminar se ha podido observar que la distribución de las isotermas responde a la presencia de los eventos ENSO como se conoce, durante un episodio ENSO la costa del Ecuador es visitada por ondas ecuatoriales, las cuales a su paso producen una elevación del nivel medio del mar y una profundización de las isotermas. Por lo que se considera que esta distribución de las isotermas guarda relación con la ocurrencia de los eventos ENSO frente a nuestras costas. Por otro lado se determina la relación existente entre el nivel del mar y la profundización de las isotermas. Para este efecto, se simplificó la distribución térmica de la estación costera de La Libertad, seleccionando la isoterma de 20°C, por considerarla representativa de la distribución t

  8. Influence of ENSO Decadal Variations on the PDO and Indian Ocean SST in Observations and CMIP Models (United States)

    Gaign, L.; Gangan, N. A., Jr.


    The first mode of sea-surface-temperature (SST) variability in the north Pacific Ocean (north of 20N) is often referred as 'Pacific Decadal Osciallation' (PDO), owing to its prominent energy level at decadal time scales. This mode of variability with its spatial extension over the tropical Pacific (referred as Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation - IPO) is indeed the dominant mode of decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean. The PDO can be understood in observations as a direct response to ENSO and atmospheric white noise in the north Pacific, reddened by the reemergence of north Pacific SST from winter to winter. In this study, we characterize PDO simulated by 32 coupled models from the CMIP (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) database, with a specific focus on the representation of tropical/extratropical teleconnections in these models. The analysis shows that the PDO, in a majority of the CMIP models, exhibits a clear tropical Pacific signature and agrees well with the hypothesis that (along with atmospheric white noise) ENSO is a major driver of PDO at both interannual and decadal timescales. One third of the models however show a PDO confined to the north Pacific, with weak tropical signals and ENSO influence. In the CMIP models, the amplitude of Indian Ocean response to PDO is found to be closely related to the amplitude of PDO signature over the tropical Pacific. The observational analysis suggests Indian Ocean teleconnection pattern associated with the tropical Pacific variability differ between interannual and decadal timescales, with a warming largely confined to the southwestern Indian Ocean at decadal timescales. In contrast, models show very similar signatures at both timescales, suggesting a possible misrepresentation of the teleconnections to the Indian Ocean at decadal timescales.

  9. Two ENSO episodes with reversed impacts on the regional precipitation of the northeastern South America Dos eventos ENSO con impactos opuestos sobre la precipitación regional en el noreste de Sudamérica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Everaldo B. de Souza


    Full Text Available Diagnostic analyses of two ENSO episodes observed during 1954-55 (La Niña and 1972-73 (El Niño over tropical Pacific Ocean are reported. These years were marked by reversed impact on the regional precipitation observed over the northeastern South America. The observational results showed that, in the Pacific Ocean, the La Niña stayed well configured during both summer and autumn of 1954-55, however the El Niño presented its mature phase during summer of 1972-73 and an abrupt decline during autumn of 1973. On the other hand, the large-scale oceanic and atmospheric patterns related to the intertropical Atlantic SST gradient, created dynamic conditions that modulated the positioning of ITCZ in the equatorial Atlantic and regulated significantly the rainfall anomalies observed in the northeastern South America, overcoming the effect of the ENSO mode observed in the tropical Pacific.En el presente trabajo se realiza un estudio de diagnóstico de los eventos ENSO ocurridos en 1954-55 (La Niña y 1972-73 (El Niño. Durante 1954-55 (1972-73, se observaron anomalías de temperaturas de la superficie del mar (TSM positivas (negativas en el Atlántico Norte y negativas (positivas en el Atlántico Sur, lo que define la fase positiva (negativa del dipolo Atlántico. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que pese a la ocurrencia del evento La Niña (El Niño en el Pacífico, la configuración del dipolo positivo (negativo en el Atlántico creó las condiciones favorables para mantener la ITCZ al norte (sur del Ecuador. En consecuencia, se encontró un déficit (exceso de precipitación en el nor-noreste brasileño durante DEF y MAM de 1954-55 (1972-73. Por lo tanto, durante estos años la configuración anómala de TSM en el Atlántico moduló las anomalías de lluvia observadas en el Amazonas y noreste de Brasil, superando el efecto del ENSO.

  10. Do regions outside the tropical Pacific influence ENSO through atmospheric teleconnections?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Dayan, H.; Izumo, T.; Vialard, J.; Lengaigne, M.; Masson, S

    This paper aims at identifying oceanic regions outside the tropical Pacific, which may influence the El Ni�o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through interannual modulation of equatorial Pacific winds An Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) 7...

  11. ENSO-based probabilistic forecasts of March-May U.S. tornado and hail activity (United States)

    Lepore, Chiara; Tippett, Michael K.; Allen, John T.


    Extended logistic regression is used to predict March-May severe convective storm (SCS) activity based on the preceding December-February (DJF) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state. The spatially resolved probabilistic forecasts are verified against U.S. tornado counts, hail events, and two environmental indices for severe convection. The cross-validated skill is positive for roughly a quarter of the U.S. Overall, indices are predicted with more skill than are storm reports, and hail events are predicted with more skill than tornado counts. Skill is higher in the cool phase of ENSO (La Niña like) when overall SCS activity is higher. SCS forecasts based on the predicted DJF ENSO state from coupled dynamical models initialized in October of the previous year extend the lead time with only a modest reduction in skill compared to forecasts based on the observed DJF ENSO state.

  12. NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostics Discussion (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The ENSO Diagnostics Discussion (EDD) is issued by NOAA Climate Prediction Center each month on the Thursday between the 5th and 11th with few exceptions (major...

  13. The nonstationary impact of local temperature changes and ENSO on extreme precipitation at the global scale (United States)

    Sun, Qiaohong; Miao, Chiyuan; Qiao, Yuanyuan; Duan, Qingyun


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and local temperature are important drivers of extreme precipitation. Understanding the impact of ENSO and temperature on the risk of extreme precipitation over global land will provide a foundation for risk assessment and climate-adaptive design of infrastructure in a changing climate. In this study, nonstationary generalized extreme value distributions were used to model extreme precipitation over global land for the period 1979-2015, with ENSO indicator and temperature as covariates. Risk factors were estimated to quantify the contrast between the influence of different ENSO phases and temperature. The results show that extreme precipitation is dominated by ENSO over 22% of global land and by temperature over 26% of global land. With a warming climate, the risk of high-intensity daily extreme precipitation increases at high latitudes but decreases in tropical regions. For ENSO, large parts of North America, southern South America, and southeastern and northeastern China are shown to suffer greater risk in El Niño years, with more than double the chance of intense extreme precipitation in El Niño years compared with La Niña years. Moreover, regions with more intense precipitation are more sensitive to ENSO. Global climate models were used to investigate the changing relationship between extreme precipitation and the covariates. The risk of extreme, high-intensity precipitation increases across high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but decreases in middle and lower latitudes under a warming climate scenario, and will likely trigger increases in severe flooding and droughts across the globe. However, there is some uncertainties associated with the influence of ENSO on predictions of future extreme precipitation, with the spatial extent and risk varying among the different models.

  14. Research on the Relationship of ENSO and the Frequency of Extreme Precipitation Events in China


    Li, Wei; Zhai, Panmao; Cai, Jinhui


    Based on a daily precipitation observation dataset of 743 stations in China from 1951–2004, the Γ distribution function is used to calculate the probability distribution of daily precipitation and to define extreme precipitation events. Based on this, the relationship of ENSO and the frequency of extreme precipitation events is studied. Results reveal that ENSO events have impact on extreme precipitation events, with different magnitudes at different regions and seasons. In general, during wi...

  15. Some Phenomena on Negative Inversion Constructions (United States)

    Sung, Tae-Soo


    We examine the characteristics of NDI (negative degree inversion) and its relation with other inversion phenomena such as SVI (subject-verb inversion) and SAI (subject-auxiliary inversion). The negative element in the NDI construction may be" not," a negative adverbial, or a negative verb. In this respect, NDI has similar licensing…

  16. The making of extraordinary psychological phenomena. (United States)

    Lamont, Peter


    This article considers the extraordinary phenomena that have been central to unorthodox areas of psychological knowledge. It shows how even the agreed facts relating to mesmerism, spiritualism, psychical research, and parapsychology have been framed as evidence both for and against the reality of the phenomena. It argues that these disputes can be seen as a means through which beliefs have been formulated and maintained in the face of potentially challenging evidence. It also shows how these disputes appealed to different forms of expertise, and that both sides appealed to belief in various ways as part of the ongoing dispute about both the facts and expertise. Finally, it shows how, when a formal Psychology of paranormal belief emerged in the twentieth century, it took two different forms, each reflecting one side of the ongoing dispute about the reality of the phenomena. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Stability and Restoration phenomena in Competitive Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Uechi, Lisa


    A conservation law and stability, recovering phenomena and characteristic patterns of a nonlinear dynamical system have been studied and applied to biological and ecological systems. In our previous study, we proposed a system of symmetric 2n-dimensional conserved nonlinear differential equations with external perturbations. In this paper, competitive systems described by 2-dimensional nonlinear dynamical (ND) model with external perturbations are applied to population cycles and recovering phenomena of systems from microbes to mammals. The famous 10-year cycle of population density of Canadian lynx and snowshoe hare is numerically analyzed. We find that a nonlinear dynamical system with a conservation law is stable and generates a characteristic rhythm (cycle) of population density, which we call the {\\it standard rhythm} of a nonlinear dynamical system. The stability and restoration phenomena are strongly related to a conservation law and balance of a system. The {\\it standard rhythm} of population density ...

  18. A possible explanation for the divergent projection of ENSO amplitude change under global warming (United States)

    Chen, Lin; Li, Tim; Yu, Yongqiang; Behera, Swadhin K.


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the greatest climate variability on interannual time scale, yet what controls ENSO amplitude changes under global warming (GW) is uncertain. Here we show that the fundamental factor that controls the divergent projections of ENSO amplitude change within 20 coupled general circulation models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 is the change of climatologic mean Pacific subtropical cell (STC), whose strength determines the meridional structure of ENSO perturbations and thus the anomalous thermocline response to the wind forcing. The change of the thermocline response is a key factor regulating the strength of Bjerknes thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks, which ultimately lead to the divergent changes in ENSO amplitude. Furthermore, by forcing an ocean general circulation mode with the change of zonal mean zonal wind stress estimated by a simple theoretical model, a weakening of the STC in future is obtained. Such a change implies that ENSO variability might strengthen under GW, which could have a profound socio-economic consequence.

  19. Evidence of reduced mid-Holocene ENSO variance on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia (United States)

    Leonard, N. D.; Welsh, K. J.; Lough, J. M.; Feng, Y.-x.; Pandolfi, J. M.; Clark, T. R.; Zhao, J.-x.


    Globally, coral reefs are under increasing pressure both through direct anthropogenic influence and increases in climate extremes. Understanding past climate dynamics that negatively affected coral reef growth is imperative for both improving management strategies and for modeling coral reef responses to a changing climate. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary source of climate variability at interannual timescales on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), northeastern Australia. Applying continuous wavelet transforms to visually assessed coral luminescence intensity in massive Porites corals from the central GBR we demonstrate that these records reliably reproduce ENSO variance patterns for the period 1880-1985. We then applied this method to three subfossil corals from the same reef to reconstruct ENSO variance from ~5200 to 4300 years before present (yBP). We show that ENSO events were less extreme and less frequent after ~5200 yBP on the GBR compared to modern records. Growth characteristics of the corals are consistent with cooler sea surface temperatures (SSTs) between 5200 and 4300 yBP compared to both the millennia prior (~6000 yBP) and modern records. Understanding ENSO dynamics in response to SST variability at geological timescales will be important for improving predictions of future ENSO response to a rapidly warming climate.

  20. A possible explanation for the divergent projection of ENSO amplitude change under global warming (United States)

    Chen, Lin; Li, Tim; Yu, Yongqiang; Behera, Swadhin K.


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the greatest climate variability on interannual time scale, yet what controls ENSO amplitude changes under global warming (GW) is uncertain. Here we show that the fundamental factor that controls the divergent projections of ENSO amplitude change within 20 coupled general circulation models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 is the change of climatologic mean Pacific subtropical cell (STC), whose strength determines the meridional structure of ENSO perturbations and thus the anomalous thermocline response to the wind forcing. The change of the thermocline response is a key factor regulating the strength of Bjerknes thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks, which ultimately lead to the divergent changes in ENSO amplitude. Furthermore, by forcing an ocean general circulation mode with the change of zonal mean zonal wind stress estimated by a simple theoretical model, a weakening of the STC in future is obtained. Such a change implies that ENSO variability might strengthen under GW, which could have a profound socio-economic consequence.

  1. Distinguishing stratospheric sudden warmings from ENSO as key drivers of wintertime climate variability over the North Atlantic and Eurasia (United States)

    Polvani, Lorenzo; Sun, Lantao; Butler, Amy; Richter, Yaga; Deser, Clara


    Stratospheric conditions are increasingly being recognized as an important driver of North Atlantic and Eurasian climate variability. Mindful that the observational record is relatively short, and that internal climate variability can be large, we here analyze a new 10-member ensemble of integrations of a stratosphere-resolving, atmospheric general circulation model, forced with the observed evolution of sea surface temperature (SST) during 1952-2003. We confirm previous studies, and show that El Niño conditions enhance the frequency of occurrence of stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs), whereas La Niña does not appear to affect it. We note, however, large differences among ensemble members, suggesting caution when interpreting the relatively short observational record. More importantly, we emphasize that the majority of SSWs are not caused by anomalous tropical Pacific SSTs. Comparing composites of winters with and without SSWs in each ENSO phase separately, we demonstrate that stratospheric variability gives rise to large and statistically significant anomalies in tropospheric circulation and surface conditions over the North Atlantic and Eurasia. This indicates that, for those regions, climate variability of stratospheric origin is comparable in magnitude to variability originating from tropical Pacific SSTs, so that the occurrence of a single SSW in a given winter is able to completely alter seasonal climate predictions based solely on ENSO conditions

  2. The large-scale ENSO event, the El Niño and other important regional features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    mousson d’été trop fortes dans les montagnes éthiopiennes. Par contre, du côté oriental de la «balançoire», celle-ci est en relation avec un anti-Niño froid dans la région nord-est de la côte sud-américaine avec ses eaux froides d’affleurement, une zone sèche dans le Pacifique équatorial qui s’étend au loin vers l’ouest, causée par de l’eau marine froide sous-jacente due à de forts vents d’est, et une pluie anormalement rare dans le Chili sub-tropical. Bien que le modèle de chaque phase individuelle ENSO ou anti-ENSO à grande échelle ait ses propres caractéristiques, les généralités établies auparavant ont lieu fréquemment, particulièrement quand les événements appartiennent aux catégories de forte et très forte intensité. Parfois, ces développements sur grande échelle sont d’abord visibles du côté occidental de la «balançoire». Il n’y a pas de meilleur exemple que le développement du ENSO très fort de 1982-1983. Un dernier but de toute la recherche sur les ENSO de grande échelle, El Niño et autres événements climatiques associés est de développer éventuellement la capacité de proposer raisonnablement des perspectives à long terme et fiables comme le temps de démarrage, l’espace couvert, la durée et l’intensité de ces fluctuations climatiques océano-atmosphériques récurrentes associées à la SO. Ce travail présente et discute quelques informations de base, des données et des enregistrements obtenus dans le passé historique. EL EVENTO ENSO DE GRAN ESCALA, EL NIÑO Y OTRAS IMPORTANTES CARACTERÍSTICAS REGIONALES. En esta actividad, se ha colectado -y continua colectándose- información coordinada y mejorada. Sin embargo, los datos año a año sobre cambios climáticos relacionados con la Oscilación del Sur (SO están primariamente limitados al período entre el año 622 d.C. y el presente. La fluctuación océano atmosférica recurrente y de gran escala, El Niño/Oscilación del Sur (ENSO, que se nota

  3. Tropical cyclone genesis in the Southern Hemisphere and its relationship with the ENSO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuleshov, Y.; Qi, L. [Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC (Australia). National Climate Centre; Chane Ming, F.; Chouaibou, I.; Hoareau, C. [UMR CNRS-Meteo-France-Univ. de la Reunion, La Reunion (France). Lab. de l' Atmosphere et des Cyclones; Roux, F. [Paul Sabatier Univ., CNRS, Toulouse (France). Lab. d' Aerologie


    Tropical cyclogenesis climatology over the South Indian and South Pacific Oceans has been developed using a new tropical cyclone (TC) archive for the Southern Hemisphere, and changes in geographical distribution of areas favourable for TC genesis related to changes in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases have been investigated. To explain these changes, large-scale environmental variables which influence TC genesis and development such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs), relative humidity in mid-troposphere, vertical wind shear and lower tropospheric vorticity have been examined. In the South Indian Ocean, reduction of TC genesis in the western part of the basin and its increase in the eastern part as well as displacement of the area favourable for TC genesis further away from the equator during La Nina events compared to El Nino events can be explained by changes in geographical distribution of relative humidity and vorticity across the basin as primary contributors; positive anomalies of SSTs observed during La Nina seasons in the eastern part of the basin additionally contribute to enhanced cyclogenesis near the Western Australia. In the South Pacific Ocean, changes in geographical distribution of relative humidity and vorticity appear to be the key large-scale environmental factors responsible for enhanced TC genesis in the eastern (western) part of the basin as well as for the northeast (southwest) shift of points of cyclogenesis during El Nino (La Nina) events, with vertical wind shear and SSTs as additional contributing large-scale environmental variables. (orig.)

  4. Remote sensing of natural phenomena

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miodrag D. Regodić


    monitoring natural phenomena The images taken from Remote Sensing have helped men to use the environment and natural resources in a better way. It is expected that the developement of new technologies will spread the usage of satellite images for the welfare of mankind as well.  Besides monitoring the surface of the Earth, the satellite monitoring of  the processes inside the Earth itself is of great importance since these processes can  cause different catastrophes such as earthquakes, volcano eruptions, floods, etc. Usage of satellite images in monitoring atmospheric phenomena The launch of artificial earth satellites has opened new possibilities for monitoring and studying atmospheric phenomena. A large number of meteorological satellites have been launched by now (Nimbus, Meteor, SNS, ESSA, Meteosat, Terra, etc.. Since these images are primarily used for weather forecast, meteorologists use them to get information about the characteristics of clouds related to their temperature, the temperature of the cloud layer, the degree of cloudness, the profiles of humidity content, the wind parameters, etc. Meteosat satellites Meteosat is the first European geostationary satellite designed for meteorological research. The use of these satellites enabled the surveying in the visible and the near IR part of the spectrum as well as in the infrared thermal and water steam track. Based on these images, it was possible to obtain data such as:  height of clouds, cloud spreading and moving, sea surface temperature, speed of wind, distribution of the water steam, balance of radiation, etc. Usage of satellite images in monitoring floods Satellite images are an excellent background and an initial phase for preventing severe catastrophic events caused by floods. Due to satellite images, it is possible to manage overflown regions before, during and after floods. This enables prevention, forecasting, detection and elimination of consequences, i.e. demage. Satellite images are of great help

  5. ENSO and East Asian winter monsoon relationship modulation associated with the anomalous northwest Pacific anticyclone (United States)

    Kim, Ji-Won; An, Soon-Il; Jun, Sang-Yoon; Park, Hey-Jin; Yeh, Sang-Wook


    Using observational datasets and numerical model experiments, the mechanism on the slowly varying change in the relationship between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is investigated. The decadal-window (11-, 15-, and 21-year) moving correlations show a significant change in the boreal wintertime ENSO-EAWM relationship between two sub-periods of 1976‒1992 and 1997‒2013. Such recent change in ENSO-EAWM relationship is mainly attributed to the changes in the intensity and zonal location of the anomalous lower-tropospheric northwest Pacific anticyclone (NWP-AC). NWP-AC commonly develops near the region of the Philippine Sea during the ENSO's peak phase and plays an important role of bridging the tropical convection and mid-latitude teleconnection. On one hand, the intensity of the NWP-AC is influenced by the interdecadal variation in a linkage between ENSO and the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) variability, referring that a strong connection between the Pacific and Indian Oceans results in the strengthening of NWP-AC response to ENSO. On the other hand, the zonal displacement of the NWP-AC is associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). That is, the tropical Pacific mean state (i.e., zonal SST gradient between climatologically warm western Pacific and cold eastern Pacific)—strengthened by either the negative PDO phase or the positive AMO phase—drives the anomalous ENSO-induced convection to be shifted to the west. With this westward shift, the zonal center of the NWP-AC also migrates westward over the Philippine Islands and exerts stronger connection between ENSO and EAWM. In contrast, the relaxed zonal SST contrast associated with either the positive PDO phase or the negative AMO phase tends to exhibit weaker ENSO-EAWM relationship via both of eastward shifted zonal centers of the anomalous ENSO-induced convection and the NWP-AC. Finally, a

  6. Numerical simulation of the direct contact condensation phenomena for PTS-related in single and combined-effect thermal hydraulic test facilities using TransAT CMFD code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kadi, Rabah, E-mail: [Laboratory for Thermal-Hydraulics, Nuclear Research Center of Birine (Algeria); Aissani, Slimane [Hydrocarbons and Chemistry Faculty, University of Boumerdes (Algeria); Bouam, Abdellah [Laboratory for Thermal-Hydraulics, Nuclear Research Center of Birine (Algeria)


    Highlights: • TransAT CMFD code application to DCC phenomenon. • LEIS methodology to predict the condensing steam flow rate. • Validation of interfacial phase-change heat transfer and turbulence models. • Correction of damping function at the free surface region. • Numerical validation of previous models using LIM and KAERI & KAIST test facilities. - Abstract: The use of CFD for the industrial studies related to PTS, including DCC is already possible; improvements of the two-phase modeling capabilities have to be undertaken to qualify the codes for the simulation of such flows. The DCC in horizontally stratified flow regime constitutes very considerable challenge exercises for a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation of the thermal hydraulics PTS phenomenon because the interplay between turbulence and interfacial heat and mass transfer problem. The main purpose of our study is to investigate numerically the DCC in horizontally stratified steam water flow in a 2D and 3D channel using TransAT CMFD code. The new methodology known as Large-Eddy & Interface (LEIS) have been implemented for treatment of turbulence combined with interface tracking ITM (level set approach). Among of the so-called ‘coarse-grained’ ITM's models, the modified original surface divergence has been chosen as well as the treatment of the turbulence by URANS and VLES. This contribution addressed on the validation of interfacial phase-change heat transfer and turbulence models with special correction of the damping function at the free surface for single and combined-effect thermal hydraulic studies for LIM and KAERI & KAIST test facilities. The LIES methodology was found to apply successfully to predict the condensing steam flow rate in the all cases of the LIM test case involving a Smooth to Wavy turbulent, concurrent stratified steam-water flow in a 2D channel. The CMFD TransAT code predicting capability is analyzed, comparing the liquid temperature and to much the

  7. Isotopic constraints on methane's global sources and ENSO-dependence (United States)

    Schaefer, Hinrich; Mikaloff Fletcher, Sara; Veidt, Cora; Lassey, Keith; Brailsford, Gordon; Bromley, Tony; Dlugokencky, Ed; Englund Michel, Sylvia; Miller, John; Levin, Ingeborg; Lowe, Dave; Martin, Ross; Vaughn, Bruce; White, James; Nichol, Sylvia


    Atmospheric levels of the potent greenhouse gas methane (CH4) have been rising since the industrial revolution, except for a plateau during the early 2000s. Stable carbon isotopes in methane (delta-13CH4) provide constraints on the budget changes associated with the plateau's onset and its end. We present a reconstruction of annual global delta-13CH4 averages based on a global network of stations, whose trends are indicative of global methane source and sink activity. A box model analysis shows that from the mid-1990s methane emissions with the characteristic thermogenic delta-13CH4 signature reduced, implying persistently lower emissions from fossil fuel productions as the cause of the plateau. However, variations in hydroxyl, the main CH4 sink, provide an equably plausible explanation for the plateau onset that may also account for strong variability in emission-vs-removal rates during the plateau period. In contrast, the renewed CH4 rise since 2006 can only be explained by increasing emissions with a biogenic isotope signature, i.e. agriculture or wetlands. We present correlation studies that test whether ENSO activity controls atmospheric delta-13CH4, and by extension methane levels, through tropical wetland emissions.

  8. ENSO's far reaching connection to Indian cold waves. (United States)

    Ratnam, J V; Behera, Swadhin K; Annamalai, H; Ratna, Satyaban B; Rajeevan, M; Yamagata, Toshio


    During boreal winters, cold waves over India are primarily due to transport of cold air from higher latitudes. However, the processes associated with these cold waves are not yet clearly understood. Here by diagnosing a suite of datasets, we explore the mechanisms leading to the development and maintenance of these cold waves. Two types of cold waves are identified based on observed minimum surface temperature and statistical analysis. The first type (TYPE1), also the dominant one, depicts colder than normal temperatures covering most parts of the country while the second type (TYPE2) is more regional, with significant cold temperatures only noticeable over northwest India. Quite interestingly the first (second) type is associated with La Niña (El Niño) like conditions, suggesting that both phases of ENSO provide a favorable background for the occurrence of cold waves over India. During TYPE1 cold wave events, a low-level cyclonic anomaly generated over the Indian region as an atmospheric response to the equatorial convective anomalies is seen advecting cold temperatures into India and maintaining the cold waves. In TYPE2 cold waves, a cyclonic anomaly generated over west India anomalously brings cold winds to northwest India causing cold waves only in those parts.

  9. Further analysis of singular vector and ENSO predictability in the Lamont model. Pt. 1. Singular vector and the control factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cheng, Yanjie; Tang, Youmin; Jackson, Peter [University of Northern British Columbia, Environmental Science and Engineering, Prince George, BC (Canada); Zhou, Xiaobing [University of Northern British Columbia, Environmental Science and Engineering, Prince George, BC (Canada); Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Chen, Dake [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY (United States); State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Hangzhou (China)


    In this study, singular vector analysis was performed for the period from 1856 to 2003 using the latest Zebiak-Cane model version LDEO5. The singular vector, representing the optimal growth pattern of initial perturbations/errors, was obtained by perturbing the constructed tangent linear model of the Zebiak-Cane model. Variations in the singular vector and singular value, as a function of initial time, season, ENSO states, and optimal period, were investigated. Emphasis was placed on exploring relative roles of linear and nonlinear processes in the optimal perturbation growth of ENSO, and deriving statistically robust conclusions using long-term singular vector analysis. It was found that the first singular vector is dominated by a west-east dipole spanning most of the equatorial Pacific, with one center located in the east and the other in the central Pacific. Singular vectors are less sensitive to initial conditions, i.e., independence of seasons and decades; while singular values exhibit a strong sensitivity to initial conditions. The dynamical diagnosis shows that the total linear and nonlinear heating terms play opposite roles in controlling the optimal perturbation growth, and that the linear optimal perturbation is more than twice as large as the nonlinear one. The total linear heating causes a warming effect and controls two positive perturbation growth regions: one in the central Pacific and the other in the eastern Pacific; whereas the total linearized nonlinear advection brings a cooling effect controlling the negative perturbation growth in the central Pacific. (orig.)

  10. Changes in El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions during the Greenland Stadial 1 (GS-1) chronozone revealed by New Zealand tree-rings (United States)

    Palmer, Jonathan G.; Turney, Chris S. M.; Cook, Edward R.; Fenwick, Pavla; Thomas, Zoë; Helle, Gerhard; Jones, Richard; Clement, Amy; Hogg, Alan; Southon, John; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher; Staff, Richard; Muscheler, Raimund; Corrège, Thierry; Hua, Quan


    The warming trend at the end of the last glacial was disrupted by rapid cooling clearly identified in Greenland (Greenland Stadial 1 or GS-1) and Europe (Younger Dryas Stadial or YD). This reversal to glacial-like conditions is one of the best known examples of abrupt change but the exact timing and global spatial extent remain uncertain. Whilst the wider Atlantic region has a network of high-resolution proxy records spanning GS-1, the Pacific Ocean suffers from a scarcity of sub-decadally resolved sequences. Here we report the results from an investigation into a tree-ring chronology from northern New Zealand aimed at addressing the paucity of data. The conifer tree species kauri (Agathis australis) is known from contemporary studies to be sensitive to regional climate changes. An analysis of a 'historic' 452-year kauri chronology confirms a tropical-Pacific teleconnection via the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We then focus our study on a 1010-year sub-fossil kauri chronology that has been precisely dated by comprehensive radiocarbon dating and contains a striking ring-width downturn between ∼12,500 and 12,380 cal BP within GS-1. Wavelet analysis shows a marked increase in ENSO-like periodicities occurring after the downturn event. Comparison to low- and mid-latitude Pacific records suggests a coherency with ENSO and Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation change during this period. The driver(s) for this climate event remain unclear but may be related to solar changes that subsequently led to establishment and/or increased expression of ENSO across the mid-latitudes of the Pacific, seemingly independent of the Atlantic and polar regions.

  11. ENSO in the CMIP5 simulations: lifecycles, diversity, and responses to climate change (United States)

    Chen, Chen; Cane, Mark A.; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Chen, Dake


    Focusing on ENSO seasonal phase locking, diversity in peak location and propagation direction, as well as the El Niño-La Niña asymmetry in amplitude, duration and transition, a set of empirical probabilistic diagnostics (EPD) is introduced to investigate how the ENSO behaviors reflected in SST may change in a warming climate. EPD is first applied to estimate the natural variation of ENSO behaviors. In the observations El Niños and La Niñas mainly propagate westward and peak in boreal winter. El Niños occur more at the eastern Pacific while La Niñas prefer the central Pacific. In a pre-industrial control simulation of the GFDL CM2.1 model, the El Niño-La Niña asymmetry is substantial. La Niña characteristics generally agree with observations but El Niños do not, typically propagating eastward and showing no obvious seasonal phase locking. So an alternative approach is using a stochastically forced simulation of a nonlinear data-driven model, which exhibits reasonably realistic ENSO behaviors and natural variation ranges. EPD is then applied to assess the potential changes of ENSO behaviors in the 21st century using CMIP5 models. Other than the increasing SST climatology, projected changes in many aspects of ENSO reflected in SST anomalies are heavily model-dependent and generally within the range of natural variation. Shifts favoring eastward propagating El Niño and La Niña are the most robust. Given various model biases for the 20th century and lack of sufficient model agreements for the 21st century projection, whether the projected changes for ENSO behaviors would actually take place remains largely uncertain.

  12. An annually laminated stalagmite record of precipitation in spring persistent rains region over SE China and its relationship to ENSO and PDO (United States)

    Zhang, Haiwei; Cheng, Hai; Spötl, Christoph; Kathayat, Gayatri


    The spring persistent rains (SPR) over Jiangnan area in southerastern China are a unique synoptic and climatic phenomenon, it is another rainy period besides East Asian tropical summer monsoon over East Asia. Studies show that the annual to decadal variability of precipitation in SPR region mainly influenced by the summer monsoon is correlated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We present a 190 year, seasonally resolved stalagmite δ18O record from E'mei cave in southeastern China that exhibits a significant correlation with ENSO, PDO, and western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) variability. In SPR region, spring (March-May) rainfall amount accounts for about 40% of annual rainfall amount, which is roughly equivalent to summer (June-September) rainfall amount, but the δ18O value of spring rainfall is more positive than that of summer rainfall. Accordingly, we suggest that δ18O of stalagmite in SPR region is mainly influenced by the ratio of summer monsoon amount/non-summer monsoon amount at annual to decadal scale. Comparisons between δ18O series and ENSO, PDO, and WPSH index show that, during El Niño phase or positive PDO phase, the WPSH becomes strong, and subsequently extend southwestward, the summer monsoon rainfall in SPR region decreases but non-summer monsoon rainfall increases, which results in the heavier oxygen isotope in annual precipitation, and subsequently in the stalagmite; and vice versa. However, this relation has weakened during the past two decades.

  13. The role of family phenomena in posttraumatic stress in youth. (United States)

    McDonald, Catherine C; Deatrick, Janet A


    Youth face trauma that can cause posttraumatic stress (PTS). (1) To identify the family phenomena used in youth PTS research; and(2) to critically examine the research findings regarding the relationship between family phenomena and youth PTS. Systematic literature review in PsycInfo, PILOTS, CINAHL, and MEDLINE. Twenty-six empirical articles met inclusion criteria. Measurement of family phenomena included family functioning,support, environment, expressiveness, relationships, cohesion, communication, satisfaction, life events related to family, parental style of influence, and parental bonding. Few studies gave clear conceptualization of family or family phenomena. Empirical findings from the 26 studies indicate inconsistent empirical relationships between family phenomena and youth PTS, although a majority of the prospective studies support a relationship between family phenomena and youth PTS. Future directions for leadership by psychiatric nurses in this area of research and practice are recommended.

  14. Mixed Fluid Conditions: Capillary Phenomena

    KAUST Repository

    Santamarina, Carlos


    Mixed fluid phenomena in porous media have profound implications on soil-atmosphere interaction, energy geotechnology, environmental engineering and infrastructure design. Surface tension varies with pressure, temperature, solute concentration, and surfactant concentration; on the other hand, the contact angle responds to interfacial tensions, surface topography, invasion velocity, and chemical interactions. Interfaces are not isolated but interact through the fluid pressure and respond to external fields. Jumps, snap-offs and percolating wetting liquids along edges and crevices are ubiquitous in real, non-cylindrical porous networks. Pore- and macroscale instabilities together with pore structure variability-and-correlation favor fluid trapping and hinder recovery efficiency. The saturation-pressure characteristic curve is affected by the saturation-history, flow-rate, the mechanical response of the porous medium, and time-dependent reactive and diffusive processes; in addition, there are salient differences between unsaturation by internal gas nucleation and gas invasion. Capillary forces add to other skeletal forces in the porous medium and can generate open-mode discontinuities when the capillary entry pressure is high relative to the effective stress. Time emerges as an important variable in mixed-fluid conditions and common quasi-static analyses may fail to capture the system response.

  15. The atmospheric electrical index for ENSO modoki: Is ENSO modoki one of the factors responsible for the warming trend slowdown? (United States)

    Kulkarni, Madhuri N.; Siingh, Devendraa


    Like the southern oscillation index (SOI) based on the pressure difference between Tahiti (17.5°S, 150°W) and Darwin (12.5°S, 130°E), we propose the new atmospheric electrical index (AEI) taking the difference in the model calculated atmospheric electrical columnar resistance (Rc) which involves planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) and aerosol concentration derived from the satellite measurements. This is the first non-oceanic index capable of differentiating between the conventional and modoki La Niña and El Niño both and may be useful in the future air-sea coupling studies and as a complementary to the oceanic indices. As the PBLH variation over Darwin is within 10% of its long term mean, a strong rise in the Rc over Darwin during the modoki period supports modoki’s connection with aerosol loading. Our correlation results show that the intensity of El Niño (La Niña) event is almost independent (not independent) of its duration and the possibility of ENSO modoki being one of the factors responsible for the warming trend slowdown (WTS). PMID:27040173

  16. A meridional dipole in premonsoon Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone activity induced by ENSO: TROPICAL CYCLONES, MONSOON AND ENSO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Balaguru, Karthik [Marine Sciences Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Seattle Washington USA; Leung, L. Ruby [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Lu, Jian [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Foltz, Gregory R. [Physical Oceanography Division, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami Florida USA


    Analysis of Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone (TC) track data for the month of May during 1980-2013 reveals a meridional dipole in TC intensification: TC intensification rates increased in the northern Bay and decreased in the southern Bay. The dipole was driven by an increase in low-level vorticity and atmospheric humidity in the northern Bay, making the environment more favorable for TC intensification, and enhanced vertical wind shear in the southern Bay, tending to reduce TC development. These environmental changes were associated with a strengthening of the monsoon circulation for the month of May, driven by a La Nin˜a-like shift in tropical Pacific SSTs andassociated tropical wave dynamics. Analysis of a suite of climate models fromthe CMIP5 archive for the 150-year historical period shows that most models correctly reproduce the link between ENSO and Bay of Bengal TC activity through the monsoon at interannual timescales. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario the same CMIP5 models produce an El Nin˜o like warming trend in the equatorial Pacific, tending to weaken the monsoon circulation. These results suggest

  17. The phenomenology of life phenomena--in a nursing context. (United States)

    Delmar, Charlotte


    The purpose of this article is to describe and develop knowledge about life phenomena in a life-philosophical and nursing context. Knowledge about life phenomena is part of a care-ethical understanding with a focus on relations. Life phenomena are to be understood as a generalized label for the various phenomena which are given with human existence. The Danish life philosophical tradition with the perspective of life as experienced has something to say in relation to a further refinement of the phenomenology of life phenomena. The refinement will be described as an ethical and existential understanding of the phenomena of nursing. The first part of the article takes a philosophical approach to the phenomenology of life phenomena. It attempts to locate life phenomena in relation to, respectively, needs, senses, and feelings. In order to maintain an overview, the attempt is made to separate needs, senses, and feelings, although in real life these are closely interwoven. The article also describes philosophy and life phenomena in relation to nursing as an empirical field. In nursing there is a risk that life phenomena become invisible to those whose task is to help the ill person adjust to a new life situation. For the nurse, it will be a continuing task, never completed, to develop a sensory-based, situation-determined attention to the patient. And the nurse must be continually aware of whether mere 'need-oriented' nursing is controlling her professional actions as a nurse. Taking a point of departure in the nurse's sensory, situationally determined attention, the last part of the article focuses on needs, senses, and feelings in connection with the nurse being able to direct her attention to the patient's life phenomena.

  18. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO and global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Nyenzi


    Full Text Available It is widely accepted by the international scientific community that human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG and aerosols since the pre-industrial era. This increase has contributed to most of the warming (0.6±0.2°C observed over the 20th century, land areas warming more than the oceans, with the 1990s very likely to be the warmest decade of the 20th century (IPCC, 2001. How this warming influences the occurrence, severity and frequency of ENSO episodes remains highly uncertain. The IPCC (2001 assessment of the scientific literature found insufficient evidence to suggest any direct attribution between increase in ENSO events that occurred in the last 20 to 30 years of the 20th century and global warming (IPCC, 2001. However, assessments carried out since then (e.g. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, in preparations suggest El Niño events have become more frequent, persistent and intense during the last 20 to 30 years compared to the previous 100 years. Attribution to global warming, however, remains highly uncertain. Efforts to simulate and model past, present and future behaviour of ENSO under a warming world due to enhanced GHG concentrations produce conflicting results. Since substantial internally-generated variability of ENSO behaviour on multi-decadal to century timescales occurs in long, unforced atmospheric-oceanic general circulation model (AOGCM simulations, the attribution of past and future changes in ENSO amplitude and frequency to external forcing like GHG concentrations cannot be made with certainty. Such attribution would require extensive use of ensemble climate experiments or long experiments with stabilised GHG forcing. Although there are now better ENSO simulations in AOGCM, further model improvements are needed to simulate a more realistic Pacific climatology and seasonal cycle of the key modes influencing the climate of the region, as well as more realistic ENSO variability

  19. Novel QCD Phenomena

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brodsky, Stanley J.; /SLAC


    I discuss a number of novel topics in QCD, including the use of the AdS/CFT correspondence between Anti-de Sitter space and conformal gauge theories to obtain an analytically tractable approximation to QCD in the regime where the QCD coupling is large and constant. In particular, there is an exact correspondence between the fifth-dimension coordinate z of AdS space and a specific impact variable {zeta} which measures the separation of the quark constituents within the hadron in ordinary space-time. This connection allows one to compute the analytic form of the frame-independent light-front wavefunctions of mesons and baryons, the fundamental entities which encode hadron properties and allow the computation of exclusive scattering amplitudes. I also discuss a number of novel phenomenological features of QCD. Initial- and final-state interactions from gluon-exchange, normally neglected in the parton model, have a profound effect in QCD hard-scattering reactions, leading to leading-twist single-spin asymmetries, diffractive deep inelastic scattering, diffractive hard hadronic reactions, the breakdown of the Lam Tung relation in Drell-Yan reactions, and nuclear shadowing and non-universal antishadowing--leading-twist physics not incorporated in the light-front wavefunctions of the target computed in isolation. I also discuss tests of hidden color in nuclear wavefunctions, the use of diffraction to materialize the Fock states of a hadronic projectile and test QCD color transparency, and anomalous heavy quark effects. The presence of direct higher-twist processes where a proton is produced in the hard subprocess can explain the large proton-to-pion ratio seen in high centrality heavy ion collisions.

  20. ENSO dynamics and diversity resulting from the recharge oscillator interacting with the slab ocean (United States)

    Yu, Yanshan; Dommenget, Dietmar; Frauen, Claudia; Wang, Gang; Wales, Scott


    El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of interannual global climate variability, which in its essence is often described by the equatorial dynamics of the recharge oscillator with a fixed pattern. Here we explore the idea that ENSO can be simulated in a model with a fixed pattern of sea surface temperature variability following the recharge oscillator mechanism, which interacts with the thermodynamic red noise of a slab ocean. This model is capable of simulating the leading modes of sea surface temperature variability in the tropical Pacific in good agreement with the observations and most coupled general circulation models. ENSO dynamics, amplitude, seasonality, the structure of the leading patterns, its meridional extension, its variations in an eastern and central Pacific pattern and associated positive feedbacks are all influenced and simulated well by including the interaction of recharge oscillator and the thermodynamic coupling to the slab ocean model. We further point out that much of the ENSO diversity in the spatial structure is a reflection of this interaction. However, it also has to be noted that some equatorial dynamics are missing in this model and in coupled general circulation models that are important for the ENSO diversity.

  1. On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming (United States)

    Nowack, Peer J.; Braesicke, Peter; Luke Abraham, N.; Pyle, John A.


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, state-of-the-art climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. The potential role of atmospheric ozone changes in this context has not been explored before. Here we show that differences between typical model representations of ozone can have a first-order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations. The vertical temperature gradient of the tropical middle-to-upper troposphere adjusts to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, modifying the Walker circulation and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. We show that neglecting ozone changes thus results in a significant increase in the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. We therefore highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability.

  2. The Impact of ENSO on Trace Gas Composition in the Upper Troposphere to Lower Stratosphere (United States)

    Oman, Luke; Douglass, Anne; Ziemke, Jerry; Waugh, Darryn Warwick


    The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical troposphere and its effects extend well into the stratosphere. Its impact on atmospheric dynamics and chemistry cause important changes to trace gas constituent distributions. A comprehensive suite of satellite observations, reanalyses, and chemistry climate model simulations are illuminating our understanding of processes like ENSO. Analyses of more than a decade of observations from NASAs Aura and Aqua satellites, combined with simulations from the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM) and other Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI) models, and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis have provided key insights into the response of atmospheric composition to ENSO. While we will primarily focus on ozone and water vapor responses in the upper troposphere to lower stratosphere, the effects of ENSO ripple through many important trace gas species throughout the atmosphere. The very large 2015-2016 El Nino event provides an opportunity to closely examine these impacts with unprecedented observational breadth. An improved quantification of natural climate variations, like those from ENSO, is needed to detect and quantify anthropogenic climate changes.

  3. Global land carbon sink response to temperature and precipitation varies with ENSO phase

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fang, Yuanyuan [Carnegie Inst. of Science, Stanford, CA (United States); Michalak, Anna M. [Carnegie Inst. of Science, Stanford, CA (United States); Schwalm, Christopher R. [Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA (United States); Huntzinger, Deborah N. [Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States); Berry, Joseph A. [Carnegie Inst. of Science, Stanford, CA (United States); Ciais, Philippe [Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CEA), Gif sur Yvette (France); Piao, Shilong [Peking Univ., Beijing (China); Poulter, Benjamin [Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States); Fisher, Joshua B. [California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States); Cook, Robert B. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Hayes, Daniel [Univ. of Maine, Orno, ME (United States); Huang, Maoyi [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Ito, Akihiko [National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba (Japan); Jain, Atul [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States); Lei, Huimin [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China); Lu, Chaoqun [Ames Lab. and Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States); Mao, Jiafu [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Parazoo, Nicholas C. [California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States); Peng, Shushi [Peking Univ., Beijing (China); Ricciuto, Daniel M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Shi, Xiaoying [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Tao, Bo [Univ. of Kentucky, Lexington, KY (United States); Tian, Hanqin [Auburn Univ., AL (United States); Wang, Weile [NASA Ames Research Center (ARC), Moffett Field, Mountain View, CA (United States); Wei, Yaxing [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Yang, Jia [Auburn Univ., AL (United States)


    Climate variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its consequent impacts on land carbon sink interannual variability have been used as a basis for investigating carbon cycle responses to climate variability more broadly, and to inform the sensitivity of the tropical carbon budget to climate change. Past studies have presented opposing views about whether temperature or precipitation is the primary factor driving the response of the land carbon sink to ENSO. We show that the dominant driver varies with ENSO phase. And whereas tropical temperature explains sink dynamics following El Niño conditions (r TG,P = 0.59, p < 0.01), the post La Niña sink is driven largely by tropical precipitation (r PG,T= -0.46, p = 0.04). This finding points to an ENSO-phase-dependent interplay between water availability and temperature in controlling the carbon uptake response to climate variations in tropical ecosystems. Furthermore, we find that none of a suite of ten contemporary terrestrial biosphere models captures these ENSO-phase-dependent responses, highlighting a key uncertainty in modeling climate impacts on the future of the global land carbon sink.

  4. On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming. (United States)

    Nowack, Peer J; Braesicke, Peter; Luke Abraham, N; Pyle, John A


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, state-of-the-art climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. The potential role of atmospheric ozone changes in this context has not been explored before. Here we show that differences between typical model representations of ozone can have a first-order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations. The vertical temperature gradient of the tropical middle-to-upper troposphere adjusts to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, modifying the Walker circulation and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. We show that neglecting ozone changes thus results in a significant increase in the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. We therefore highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability.

  5. Energy Dissipation in the Tropical Ocean and ENSO Dynamics. (United States)

    Brown, J. N.; Fedorov, A. V.


    State-of-the art coupled models exhibit a wide range of behavior in the tropical Pacific, particularly when simulating ENSO. Here, we use the energetics of the tropical ocean to shed light on this issue. Previous studies have shown that winds act on the ocean by affecting the buoyancy forcing, modifying the slope of the isopycnals and changing the Available Potential Energy (APE) of the system, so that d(APE)/dt = WindWork - Dissipation. The present study focuses on the role of energy dissipation in this balance due to various factors including turbulent mixing and coastal Kelvin waves leaving the basin. Firstly we test the robustness of this equation by using a variety of ocean-only models and data-assimilation products, in order to establish a baseline for this relationship. With the baseline established, we apply our method to the IPCC coupled model simulations. We find that the net dissipation rates and the overall dissipative properties vary greatly from one model to the next. One of the striking differences between coupled models is in the way they partition energy between the seasonal cycle and interannual variability, which is investigated within the same framework. Further, we explore the differences in the ocean energetics that occur due to the emergence of a double ITCZ in coupled models and also investigate the relationship between the effective coupling strength of a given model and its dissipative characteristics. Ultimately, we propose this energy-based analysis as an effective diagnostic tool for assessing and improving model performance.

  6. ENSO Weather and Coral Bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia (United States)

    McGowan, Hamish; Theobald, Alison


    The most devastating mass coral bleaching has occurred during El Niño events, with bleaching reported to be a direct result of increased sea surface temperatures (SSTs). However, El Niño itself does not cause SSTs to rise in all regions that experience bleaching. Nor is the upper ocean warming trend of 0.11°C per decade since 1971, attributed to global warming, sufficient alone to exceed the thermal tolerance of corals. Here we show that weather patterns during El Niño that result in reduced cloud cover, higher than average air temperatures and higher than average atmospheric pressures, play a crucial role in determining the extent and location of coral bleaching on the world's largest coral reef system, the World Heritage Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Accordingly, synoptic-scale weather patterns and local atmosphere-ocean feedbacks related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and not large-scale SST warming due to El Niño alone and/or global warming are often the cause of coral bleaching on the GBR.

  7. Impacts of ENSO events on cloud radiative effects in preindustrial conditions: Changes in cloud fraction and their dependence on interactive aerosol emissions and concentrations: IMPACT OF ENSO ON CLOUD RADIATIVE EFFECT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Yang [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Now at Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Russell, Lynn M. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Xu, Li [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Lou, Sijia [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Lamjiri, Maryam A. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Somerville, Richard C. J. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Miller, Arthur J. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Cayan, Daniel R. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; DeFlorio, Michael J. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Ghan, Steven J. [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Liu, Ying [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Singh, Balwinder [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Wang, Hailong [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Yoon, Jin-Ho [Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology, Gwangju South Korea; Rasch, Philip J. [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA


    The impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on shortwave and longwave cloud radiative effects (CRESW and CRELW) and the underlying changes in cloud fraction as well as aerosol emissions, wet scavenging and transport are quantified using three 150-year simulations in preindustrial conditions by the CESM model. Compared to recent observations from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES), the model simulation successfully reproduced larger variations of CRESW over the tropical western and central Pacific, Indonesian regions, and the eastern Pacific Ocean, as well as large variations of CRELW located mainly within the tropics. The ENSO cycle is found to dominate interannual variations of cloud radiative effects, especially over the tropics. Relative to those during La Niña events, simulated cooling (warming) effects from CRESW (CRELW) during El Niño events are stronger over the tropical western and central Pacific Ocean, with the largest difference exceeding 40 Wm–2 (30 Wm–2), with weaker effects of 10–30 Wm–2 over Indonesian regions and the subtropical Pacific Ocean. Sensitivity tests show that variations of cloud radiative effects are mainly driven by ENSO-related changes in cloud fraction. The variations in medium and high cloud fractions each account for about 20–50% of the interannual variations of CRESW over the tropics and almost all of the variations of CRELW between 60°S and 60°N. The variation of low cloud fraction contributes most interannual variations of CRESW over the mid-latitude oceans. Variations in natural aerosol concentrations considering emissions, wet scavenging and transport explained 10–30% of the interannual variations of both CRESW and CRELW over the tropical Pacific, Indonesian regions and the tropical Indian Ocean. Changes in wet scavenging of natural aerosol modulate the variations of cloud radiative effects. Because of increased (decreased) precipitation over the tropical western Pacific

  8. Natural phenomena hazards site characterization criteria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)


    The criteria and recommendations in this standard shall apply to site characterization for the purpose of mitigating Natural Phenomena Hazards (wind, floods, landslide, earthquake, volcano, etc.) in all DOE facilities covered by DOE Order 5480.28. Criteria for site characterization not related to NPH are not included unless necessary for clarification. General and detailed site characterization requirements are provided in areas of meteorology, hydrology, geology, seismology, and geotechnical studies.

  9. Corporate Strategy And The Social Networking Phenomena


    Johnson, Robert L.


    The Social Networking (SN) phenomena has developed relatively overnight and is continuing to develop at an exponential pace. It allows for innovative new methods of disseminating and collecting information in ways never before dreamed possible by corporate executives. The rise of Social Networking is becoming a disruptive technology for traditional marketing and advertising medium such as radio, television, web page, and print media, creating new business opportunities for the entrepreneur w...

  10. Undergraduates' understanding of cardiovascular phenomena. (United States)

    Michael, Joel A; Wenderoth, Mary Pat; Modell, Harold I; Cliff, William; Horwitz, Barbara; McHale, Philip; Richardson, Daniel; Silverthorn, Dee; Williams, Stephen; Whitescarver, Shirley


    Undergraduates students in 12 courses at 8 different institutions were surveyed to determine the prevalence of 13 different misconceptions (conceptual difficulties) about cardiovascular function. The prevalence of these misconceptions ranged from 20 to 81% and, for each misconception, was consistent across the different student populations. We also obtained explanations for the students' answers either as free responses or with follow-up multiple-choice questions. These results suggest that students have a number of underlying conceptual difficulties about cardiovascular phenomena. One possible source of some misconceptions is the students' inability to apply simple general models to specific cardiovascular phenomena. Some implications of these results for teachers of physiology are discussed.

  11. A synthesis of ENSO effects on drylands in Australia, North America and South America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Holmgren


    Full Text Available Fundamentally, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO is a climatic and oceanographic phenomenon, but it has profound effects on terrestrial ecosystems. Although the ecological effects of ENSO are becoming increasingly known from a wide range of terrestrial ecosystems (Holmgren et al., 2001, their impacts have been more intensively studied in arid and semiarid systems. In this brief communication, we summarize the main conclusions of a recent symposium on the effects of ENSO in these ecosystems, which was convened as part of the First Alexander von Humboldt International Conference on the El Niño Phenomenon and its Global Impact, in Guayaquil, Ecuador, from 16–20 May 2005. Participants in the symposium shared results and perspectives from research conducted in North and South America and Australia, regions where the ecological effects of ENSO have been studied in depth. Although the reports covered a wide array of organisms and ecological systems (Fig. 1, a recurring theme was the strong increase in rainfall associated with ENSO events in dry ecosystems (during the El Niño phase of the oscillation in the Americas and the La Niña phase in Australia. Because inter-annual variability in precipitation is such a strong determinant of productivity in arid and semiarid ecosystems, increased ENSO rainfall is crucial for plant recruitment, productivity and diversity in these ecosystems. Several long-term studies show that this pulse in primary productivity causes a subsequent increase in herbivores, followed by an increase in carnivores, with consequences for changes in ecosystem structure and functioning that can be quite complex.

  12. ENSO effects on MLT diurnal tides: A 21 year reanalysis data-driven GAIA model simulation (United States)

    Liu, Huixin; Sun, Yang-Yi; Miyoshi, Yasunobu; Jin, Hidekatsu


    Tidal responses to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) are investigated for the first time using reanalysis data-driven simulations covering 21 years. The simulation is carried out with the Ground-to-topside Atmosphere-Ionosphere model for Aeronomy (GAIA) during 1996-2016, which covers nine ENSO events. ENSO impacts on diurnal tides at 100 km altitude are analyzed and cross-compared among temperature (T), zonal wind (U), and meridional wind (V), which reveals the following salient features: (1) Tidal response can differ significantly among T, U, and V in terms of magnitude and latitudinal structure, making detection of ENSO effects sensitive to the parameter used and the location of a ground station; (2) the nonmigrating DE3 tide in T and U shows a prominent hemisphere asymmetric response to La Niña, with an increase between 0° and 30°N and a decrease between 30° and 0°S. In contrast, DE3 in V exhibits no significant response; (3) the migrating DW1 enhances during El Niño in equatorial regions for T and U but in off-equatorial regions for V. As the first ENSO study based on reanalysis-driven simulations, GAIA's full set of tidal responses in T, U, and V provides us with a necessary global context to better understand and cross-compare observations during ENSO events. Comparisons with observations during the 1997-98 El Niño and 2010-11 La Niña reveal good agreement in both magnitude and timing. Comparisons with "free-run" WACCM simulations (T) show consistent results in nonmigrating tides DE2 and DE3 but differences in the migrating DW1 tide.

  13. ENSO modulation of seasonal rainfall and extremes in Indonesia (United States)

    Supari; Tangang, Fredolin; Salimun, Ester; Aldrian, Edvin; Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena; Juneng, Liew


    This paper provides a detailed description of how ENSO events affect seasonal and extreme precipitation over Indonesia. Daily precipitation data from 97 stations across Indonesia covering the period from 1981 to 2012 were used to investigate the effects of El Niño and La Niña on extreme precipitation characteristics including intensity, frequency and duration, as defined based on a subset of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Although anomalous signals in these three indices were consistent with those of total rainfall, anomalies in the duration of extremes [i.e., consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD)] were much more robust. El Niño impacts were particularly prominent during June-July-August (JJA) and September-October-November (SON), when anomalously dry conditions were experienced throughout the country. However, from SON, a wet anomaly appeared over northern Sumatra, later expanding eastward during December-January-February (DJF) and March-April-May (MAM), creating contrasting conditions of wet in the west and dry in the east. We attribute this apparent eastward expansion of a wet anomaly during El Niño progression to the equatorial convergence of two anti-cyclonic circulations, one residing north of the equator and the other south of the equator. These anti-cyclonic circulations strengthen and weaken according to seasonal changes and their coupling with regional seas, hence shaping moisture transport and convergence. During La Niña events, the eastward expansion of an opposite (i.e., dry) anomaly was also present but less prominent than that of El Niño. We attribute this to differences in regional ocean—atmosphere coupling, which result in the contrasting seasonal evolution of the two corresponding anomalous cyclonic circulations and in turn suggests the strong nonlinearity of El Niño and La Niña responses over the Maritime Continent. Based on the seasonal behaviour of anomalous CDD and CWD, we

  14. Tropical cyclone genesis in the Southern Hemisphere and its relationship with the ENSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Kuleshov


    Full Text Available Tropical cyclogenesis climatology over the South Indian and South Pacific Oceans has been developed using a new tropical cyclone (TC archive for the Southern Hemisphere, and changes in geographical distribution of areas favourable for TC genesis related to changes in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO phases have been investigated. To explain these changes, large-scale environmental variables which influence TC genesis and development such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs, relative humidity in mid-troposphere, vertical wind shear and lower tropospheric vorticity have been examined. In the South Indian Ocean, reduction of TC genesis in the western part of the basin and its increase in the eastern part as well as displacement of the area favourable for TC genesis further away from the equator during La Niña events compared to El Niño events can be explained by changes in geographical distribution of relative humidity and vorticity across the basin as primary contributors; positive anomalies of SSTs observed during La Niña seasons in the eastern part of the basin additionally contribute to enhanced cyclogenesis near the Western Australia. In the South Pacific Ocean, changes in geographical distribution of relative humidity and vorticity appear to be the key large-scale environmental factors responsible for enhanced TC genesis in the eastern (western part of the basin as well as for the northeast (southwest shift of points of cyclogenesis during El Niño (La Niña events, with vertical wind shear and SSTs as additional contributing large-scale environmental variables.

  15. Transport phenomena in particulate systems

    CERN Document Server

    Freire, José Teixeira; Ferreira, Maria do Carmo


    This volume spans 10 chapters covering different aspects of transport phenomena including fixed and fluidized systems, spouted beds, electrochemical and wastewater treatment reactors. This e-book will be valuable for students, engineers and researchers aiming to keep updated on the latest developments on particulate systems.

  16. Nursing phenomena in inpatient psychiatry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frauenfelder, F.; Muller-Staub, M.; Needham, I.; Achterberg, T. van


    Little is known about the question if the nursing diagnosis classification of North American Nursing Association-International (NANDA-I) describes the adult inpatient psychiatric nursing care. The present study aimed to identify nursing phenomena mentioned in journal articles about the psychiatric

  17. A Course on Surface Phenomena. (United States)

    Woods, Donald R.


    Describes a graduate or senior elective course combining fundamentals of surface phenomena with practical problem-solving structured around a series of case problems. Discusses topics covered and their development through acquiring new knowledge applied to the case problem, practical calculations of solutions, and applications to additional…

  18. Discovery potential for new phenomena

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Godfrey, S. [Carleton Univ., Ottawa, Ontario (Canada). Ottawa Carleton Inst. for Physics; Hewett, J.L. [Stanford Linear Accelerator Center, Menlo Park, CA (United States); Price, L.E. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). High Energy Physics Div.


    The authors examine the ability of future facilities to discover and interpret non-supersymmetric new phenomena. The authors first explore explicit manifestations of new physics, including extended gauge sectors, leptoquarks, exotic fermions, and technicolor models. They then take a more general approach where new physics only reveals itself through the existence of effective interactions at lower energy scales.

  19. Collective Phenomena in Kidney Autoregulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mosekilde, Erik; Sosnovtseva, Olga; Holstein-Rathlou, N.-H.


    , the nephron. However, a variety of cooperative phenomena arising through interactions between the nephrons may also be important. We prescut experimental evidence for a coupling between nephrons that are connected via a common piece of afferent arteriole. We also develop a mathematical model that call account...

  20. Bion and Tustin: the autistic phenomena. (United States)

    Korbivcher, Celia Fix


    This article examines the implications of the proposal of autistic transformations within the general context of Bion's theory of Transformations. The aim is to confirm the coherence of this proposal of autistic transformations within the overall structure of Bion's theory of Transformations. She examines the relation between emotional links and their negatives, particularly -K. She questions in which of the dimensions of the mind the autistic phenomena are located, the relation between autistic phenomena and beta elements, and where to place them in the Grid. The author tries to form metapsychological support for the incorporation of the autistic area in Bion's theory of Transformations. She argues that, despite the incongruence and imprecision of this incorporation, such autistic phenomena cannot be excluded from the complexus of the human mind and should therefore be accounted for in Bion's transformations. She discusses the idea that the theory of transformations includes the field of the neurosis and psychosis and deals with emotions, whereas the autistic area is dominated by sensations. The author asks how to add the autistic area to Bion's theory. Clinical material of a child for whom the non-psychotic part of the personality predominates and who presents autistic nuclei provides material for the discussion. Copyright © 2013 Institute of Psychoanalysis.

  1. Astronomical phenomena in Dresden codex

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Böhm V.


    Full Text Available The relationship between Maya and our calendar is expressed by a coefficient known as ‘correlation’ which is a number of days that we have to add to the Mayan Long Count date to get Julian Date used in astronomy. There is surprisingly large uncertainty in the value of the correlation, yielding a shift between both calendars (and thus between the history of Maya and of our world to typically several hundred years. There are more than 50 diverse values of the correlation, some of them derived from historical, other by astronomical data. We test here (among others the well established Goodman-Martínez-Thompson correlation (GMT, based on historical data, and the Böhms’ one (B&B, based on astronomical data decoded from the Dresden Codex (DC; this correlation differs by about +104 years from the GMT. In our previous works we used several astronomical phenomena as recorded in the DC for a check. We clearly demonstrated that (i the GMT was not capable to predict these phenomena that really happened in nature and (ii that the GMT predicts them on the days when they did not occur. The phenomena used till now in the test are, however, short-periodic and the test then may suffer from ambiguity. Therefore, we add long-periodic astronomical phenomena, decoded successfully from the DC, to the testing. These are (i a synchrony of Venusian heliacal risings with the solar eclipses, (ii a synchrony of Venus and Mars conjunctions with the eclipses, (iii conjunctions of Jupiter and Saturn repeated in a rare way, and (iv a synchrony of synodic and sideric periods of Mercury with the tropical year. Based on our analysis, we find that the B&B correlation yields the best agreement with the astronomical phenomena observed by the Maya. Therefore we recommend to reject the GMT and support the B&B correlation.

  2. Effects of the El Niño--Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle on mosquito populations in southern California. (United States)

    Heft, David E; Walton, William E


    The abundance and species composition of adult mosquitoes collected by carbon dioxide-baited suction traps and gravid traps in western Los Angeles County, CA, were compared before and during a strong El Niño--Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle from December 1996 until November 1999. Following El Niño conditions in the winter 1997-1998, adult host-seeking mosquito abundance during spring was twice that observed during spring 1997 and species composition favored cool-weather mosquitoes such as Culiseta incidens and Culex tarsalis. The comparatively cool temperatures from early April until early June and increased rainfall of the 1998 El Niño negatively affected warm-weather mosquitoes such as Culex quinquefasciatus that inhabit eutrophic habitats such as urban storm drains. Gravid mosquito abundance during the early summer following El Niño conditions also increased 2- to 3-fold relative to 1997, but gravid mosquito species composition was not significantly affected by ENSO cycles, reflecting an inherent bias of gravid traps to collect predominantly Cx. quinquefasciatus. Relative to spring 1997, host-seeking and gravid mosquito abundances were reduced 3- to 7-fold from March until June 1999 under the comparatively dry La Niña conditions. The increased abundance and prolonged host-seeking activity of Cx. tarsalis during the spring and early summer following a strong El Niño may have a significant impact on public health in urban southern California because this mosquito is an important arbovirus vector and constructed wetlands in urban areas may increase suitable, comparatively permanent developmental sites for important mosquito vectors such as Cx. tarsalis that are usually rare in urban environments.

  3. ENSO-conditioned weather resampling method for seasonal ensemble streamflow prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beckers, Joost V.L.; Weerts, Albrecht H.; Tijdeman, Erik; Welles, Edwin


    Oceanic-atmospheric climate modes, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are known to affect the local streamflow regime in many rivers around the world. A new method is proposed to incorporate climate mode information into the well-known ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) method for

  4. Impact of 1990-'95 ENSO/WEPO event on Indian monsoon rainfall

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopinathan, C.K.

    The negative phase of the 1990-'95 El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the associated Warming of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean (WEPO) was the longest observed in the 113 years of its recorded history, compared to its normal duration of 1 to 2...

  5. ENSO-induced inter-annual sea level variability in the Singapore strait

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Soumya, M.; Vethamony, P.; Tkalich, P.

    Sea level data from four tide gauge stations in the SS (Tanjong Pagar, Sultan Shoal, Sembawang and Raffles Lighthouse) for the period 1970-2012 were extracted to study the ENSO-induced interannual sea level variability Sea level during this period...

  6. Impact of ENSO events on the interannual variability of Hadley circulation extents in boreal winter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Peng Guo


    Full Text Available The interannual variability of the boreal winter Hadley circulation extents during the period of 1979–2014 and its links to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO were investigated by using reanalysis datasets. Results showed that the El Niño (La Niña events can induce the shrinking (expansion of Hadley circulation extent in the Southern Hemisphere. For the Northern Hemisphere, El Niño (La Niña mainly leads to shrinking (expansion of the Hadley circulation extent in the middle and lower troposphere and expansion (shrinking of the Hadley circulation extent in the upper troposphere. The ENSO associated meridional temperature gradients have close relationship with the Hadley circulation extents in both Hemispheres. But in the Northern Hemisphere, the ENSO associated eddy momentum flux divergence plays more important role in affecting the Hadley circulation extent than the meridional temperature gradient because of the small local Rossby number. In the Southern Hemisphere, as the ENSO induced eddy momentum flux divergence is small, the meridional temperature gradient dominates the change of the Hadley circulation extent.

  7. Impact of ENSO events on the Kruger National Park’s vegetation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Wessels, Konrad J


    Full Text Available the Kruger National Park shows the strong relationship between the ENSO episodes (droughts during El Niño and high rainfall during La Niña episodes), rainfall, grass production and satellite time-series data of vegetation activity. El Niño conditions have...

  8. Tree establishment along an ENSO experimental gradient in the Atacama desert

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Squeo, F.A.; Holmgren, M.; Jimenez, L.; Alban, L.; Reyes, J.; Gutierrez, J.R.


    Questions: (1) What are the roles of regional climate and plant growth rate for seedling establishment during ENSO rainy pulses along the western coast of South America? (2) What is the water threshold for tree seedling establishment in these arid ecosystems? Location: Atacama Desert, western South

  9. Opposing oceanic and atmospheric ENSO influences on the Ross Sea Region, Antarctica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. N. Bertler


    Full Text Available Here we discuss the cause and effect of opposing atmospheric and oceanic ENSO forcings in the Ross Sea, that lead to a net warming in the eastern Ross Sea and a net cooling in the western Ross Sea during El Niño years. During La Niña years the opposite is observed. The oceanic ENSO effect causes a ~1 K warming with a 3 month lag during El Niño years in comparison to La Niña time periods. During El Niño events, the atmospheric ENSO effect leads to a shift and weakening of the Amundsen Sea Low, causing enhanced import of colder West Antarctic air masses into the western Ross Sea. We find that this indirect ENSO effect is about one order of magnitude stronger (up to 15 K in the western Ross Sea than the direct effect (~1 K, leading to a net cooling during El Niño and net warming during La Niña events.

  10. Effect of AMOC collapse on ENSO in a high resolution general circulation model (United States)

    Williamson, Mark S.; Collins, Mat; Drijfhout, Sybren S.; Kahana, Ron; Mecking, Jennifer V.; Lenton, Timothy M.


    We look at changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a high-resolution eddy-permitting climate model experiment in which the Atlantic Meridional Circulation (AMOC) is switched off using freshwater hosing. The ENSO mode is shifted eastward and its period becomes longer and more regular when the AMOC is off. The eastward shift can be attributed to an anomalous eastern Ekman transport in the mean equatorial Pacific ocean state. Convergence of this transport deepens the thermocline in the eastern tropical Pacific and increases the temperature anomaly relaxation time, causing increased ENSO period. The anomalous Ekman transport is caused by a surface northerly wind anomaly in response to the meridional sea surface temperature dipole that results from switching the AMOC off. In contrast to a previous study with an earlier version of the model, which showed an increase in ENSO amplitude in an AMOC off experiment, here the amplitude remains the same as in the AMOC on control state. We attribute this difference to variations in the response of decreased stochastic forcing in the different models, which competes with the reduced damping of temperature anomalies. In the new high-resolution model, these effects approximately cancel resulting in no change in amplitude.

  11. Thermodynamic constraints on fluctuation phenomena (United States)

    Maroney, O. J. E.


    The relationships among reversible Carnot cycles, the absence of perpetual motion machines, and the existence of a nondecreasing globally unique entropy function form the starting point of many textbook presentations of the foundations of thermodynamics. However, the thermal fluctuation phenomena associated with statistical mechanics has been argued to restrict the domain of validity of this basis of the second law of thermodynamics. Here we demonstrate that fluctuation phenomena can be incorporated into the traditional presentation, extending rather than restricting the domain of validity of the phenomenologically motivated second law. Consistency conditions lead to constraints upon the possible spectrum of thermal fluctuations. In a special case this uniquely selects the Gibbs canonical distribution and more generally incorporates the Tsallis distributions. No particular model of microscopic dynamics need be assumed.

  12. New phenomena searches at CDF

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soha, Aron; /UC, Davis


    The authors report on recent results from the Collider Detector at Fermilab (CDF) experiment, which is accumulating data from proton-antiproton collisions with {radical}s = 1.96 TeV at Run II of the Fermilab Tevatron. The new phenomena being explored include Higgs, Supersymmetry, and large extra dimensions. They also present the latest results of searches for heavy objects, which would indicate physics beyond the Standard Model.

  13. Foot Anthropometry and Morphology Phenomena


    Agić, Ante; Nikolić, Vasilije; Mijović, Budimir


    Foot structure description is important for many reasons. The foot anthropometric morphology phenomena are analyzed together with hidden biomechanical functionality in order to fully characterize foot structure and function. For younger Croatian population the scatter data of the individual foot variables were interpolated by multivariate statistics. Foot structure descriptors are influenced by many factors, as a style of life, race, climate, and things of the great importance in ...

  14. Mathematical Modeling of Diverse Phenomena (United States)

    Howard, J. C.


    Tensor calculus is applied to the formulation of mathematical models of diverse phenomena. Aeronautics, fluid dynamics, and cosmology are among the areas of application. The feasibility of combining tensor methods and computer capability to formulate problems is demonstrated. The techniques described are an attempt to simplify the formulation of mathematical models by reducing the modeling process to a series of routine operations, which can be performed either manually or by computer.

  15. Tailoring wheat management to ENSO phases for increased wheat production in Paraguay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melissa A. Ramirez-Rodrigues


    Full Text Available Reported regional wheat yields in Paraguay vary from 1 to 3 t/ha from year to year, but appear not to be correlated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO phases. Historical weather data from two locations in representative wheat-growing regions of Paraguay, Encarnación-Itapúa and Ciudad del Este-Alto Paraná combined with crop modeling, were analyzed to optimize nitrogen (N fertilizer application rates according to the ENSO phase of a growing season. The ENSO phase of a growing season was defined based on the average of the sea surface temperature (SST anomalies in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific region for the period June–October using the El Niño region 3.0 index (Niño 3.0. Simulated average yields in Alto Paraná were higher in the drier and cooler La Niña wheat-growing seasons (average of 3.5 t/ha compared to the other phases (average of 3.2 t/ha and in Itapúa, in Neutral seasons (average of 3.8 t/ha compared to the other phases (average of 3.7 t/ha. Accordingly, optimal N fertilizer applications ranged between 20 and 60 kg N/ha between phases depending on the sowing date, soil type and initial amount of soil water content. Applying an ENSO or General Circulation Model (GCM-based forecast for ENSO-season-type specific N fertilizer applications resulted in benefits of >100 US$/ha when compared with current farmers’ practice of consistently low N fertilizer applications in Paraguay. When N management based on forecasts was compared with optimized N application without forecast, the benefits of the forecast was only up to 8 US$/ha. The ENSO-persistence-based forecast showed higher values than the GCM-based forecasts with two lead-times but lower skill. Using climate information can significantly increase current wheat yields and gross margins in Paraguay by tailoring N fertilizer applications to the Niño 3.0-defined ENSO phases, which can be forecasted with moderate skill at the beginning of the growing season.

  16. A new ENSO index derived from satellite measurements of column ozone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Ziemke


    Full Text Available Column Ozone measured in tropical latitudes from Nimbus 7 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS, Earth Probe TOMS, solar backscatter ultraviolet (SBUV, and Aura ozone monitoring instrument (OMI are used to derive an El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO index. This index, which covers a time period from 1979 to the present, is defined as the "Ozone ENSO Index" (OEI and is the first developed from atmospheric trace gas measurements. The OEI is constructed by first averaging monthly mean column ozone over two broad regions in the western and eastern Pacific and then taking their difference. This differencing yields a self-calibrating ENSO index which is independent of individual instrument calibration offsets and drifts in measurements over the long record. The combined Aura OMI and MLS ozone data confirm that zonal variability in total column ozone in the tropics caused by ENSO events lies almost entirely in the troposphere. As a result, the OEI can be derived directly from total column ozone instead of tropospheric column ozone. For clear-sky ozone measurements a +1 K change in Nino 3.4 index corresponds to +2.9 Dobson Unit (DU change in the OEI, while a +1 hPa change in SOI coincides with a −1.7 DU change in the OEI. For ozone measurements under all cloud conditions these numbers are +2.4 DU and −1.4 DU, respectively. As an ENSO index based upon ozone, it is potentially useful in evaluating climate models predicting long term changes in ozone and other trace gases.

  17. Assessing probabilistic predictions of ENSO phase and intensity from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (United States)

    Tippett, Michael K.; Ranganathan, Meghana; L'Heureux, Michelle; Barnston, Anthony G.; DelSole, Timothy


    Here we examine the skill of three, five, and seven-category monthly ENSO probability forecasts (1982-2015) from single and multi-model ensemble integrations of the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) project. Three-category forecasts are typical and provide probabilities for the ENSO phase (El Niño, La Niña or neutral). Additional forecast categories indicate the likelihood of ENSO conditions being weak, moderate or strong. The level of skill observed for differing numbers of forecast categories can help to determine the appropriate degree of forecast precision. However, the dependence of the skill score itself on the number of forecast categories must be taken into account. For reliable forecasts with same quality, the ranked probability skill score (RPSS) is fairly insensitive to the number of categories, while the logarithmic skill score (LSS) is an information measure and increases as categories are added. The ignorance skill score decreases to zero as forecast categories are added, regardless of skill level. For all models, forecast formats and skill scores, the northern spring predictability barrier explains much of the dependence of skill on target month and forecast lead. RPSS values for monthly ENSO forecasts show little dependence on the number of categories. However, the LSS of multimodel ensemble forecasts with five and seven categories show statistically significant advantages over the three-category forecasts for the targets and leads that are least affected by the spring predictability barrier. These findings indicate that current prediction systems are capable of providing more detailed probabilistic forecasts of ENSO phase and amplitude than are typically provided.

  18. Respuestas del clima de América del Sur a las fases de ENSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    Pampa y Patagonia no reaccionan a los impulsos de EN. Las lluvias en el centro de Brasil son independientes también de las fases de ENOS. Las precipitaciones durante los llamados años “normales” sugieren que existe una independencia con respecto a los mecanismos generadores de lluvias condicionados por las fases extremas de ENOS, hecho que reclama una mejor investigación de otras fluctuaciones de la circulación tropical que condicionan anomalías de precipitación. SOUTH AMERICA CLIMATIC RESPONSE TO ENSO PHASES. The high phases of ENSO, El Niño (EN, and the low phases, Anti-Niño (AN relate differently with the precipitation regimes of South America. In order to establish the character of these relations the annual precipitation totals have been analyzed with a probabilistic approach corresponding to three sub-populations: totals of EN, totals of AN, and totals of the rest of the years, or “normal” years. Preceeding southern summers with EN, precipitation in Central Chile and Andean Argentina is above average. During particularly strong EN events in the tropical Pacific, droughts affect Northeast Brazil during the summers and falls preceding EN. From December to March of EN years, it rains copiously along the west coast of South America between the Bay of Tumaco and Pacasmayo. In the interior of the Sierra and the Peruvian/Bolivian Altiplano droughts occur during the same period. In the Bolivian lowlands, Paraguay, south-eastern Brazilian rains are abnormally high during the southern summer and fall. In mid fall, abundant rains occur in the Rio de la Plata lowlands and in southern Brazil. The northern segment and lower basin of the Amazon experience less rains during EN and higher pluviosity during AN. The interior Amazon basin tends to react inversely as it experiences higher totals during some extraordinary EN events. Over Venezuela and Colombia under the influence of the Caribbean and North Atlantic rains during EN years are lower than normal but high during

  19. Electron impact phenomena and the properties of gaseous ions

    CERN Document Server

    Field, F H; Massey, H S W; Brueckner, Keith A


    Electron Impact Phenomena and the Properties of Gaseous Ions, Revised Edition deals with data pertaining to electron impact and to molecular gaseous ionic phenomena. This book discusses electron impact phenomena in gases at low pressure that involve low-energy electrons, which result in ion formation. The text also describes the use of mass spectrometers in electron impact studies and the degree of accuracy obtained when measuring electron impact energies. This book also reviews relatively low speed electrons and the transitions that result in the ionization of the atomic system. This text the

  20. South Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature and its Relationship with Precipitation in Brazil During Neutral ENSO Periods (United States)

    Bombardi, R. J.; Carvalho, L. V.; Jones, C.


    The dominant mode of coupled variability over the South Atlantic Ocean is known as "South Atlantic Dipole" (SAD) and is characterized by a dipole in sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies with centers over the tropical and the subtropical South Atlantic. Previous studies have shown that variations in SST related to SAD modulate large-scale patterns of precipitation over the Atlantic Ocean. Here we show that variations in the South Atlantic SST strongly impact daily precipitation over central-eastern Brazil (Fig. 1). Moreover, we examine the mechanisms whereby the South Atlantic SST anomalies influence the climate of the region. Rain gauge precipitation, satellite derived sea surface temperature and reanalysis data are used to investigate the variability of the subtropical and tropical South Atlantic and impacts on precipitation. SAD phases are assessed by performing Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis of sea level pressure and SST anomalies. We show that during neutral ENSO events, SAD is an important role on the interaction tropics-extratropics. Positive SST anomalies over the subtropical South Atlantic (SAD negative phase) favor cyclogenesis as well as the migration of extratropical cyclones further north, increasing precipitation over central-eastern Brazil. We expect that the results from this study will contribute to climate monitoring and forecast.; Figure 1 - Composites of SST anomalies (shade) and precipitation (contour) during a) negative SAD events; b) positive SAD events. Difference between composites of SAD events (positive minus negative) for c) precipitation and d) SST. Shading in (c) and (d) indicate regions where the difference is statistically significant at 5% level according to the z-test of the difference of means. Contour interval equal 0.25 in (a) and (b) and equal 0.5 in (c).

  1. Impact of Big Tambora Eruption on ENSO, Ocean Heat Uptake, and Sea Level (United States)

    Stenchikov, G.; Ramaswamy, V.; Delworth, T.


    Strong explosive volcanic eruptions could produce global stratospheric aerosol clouds that last for 2-3 years reflecting solar radiation and cooling the earth's surface. The climate response to volcanic impact forms as a result of interaction of associated thermal and dynamic perturbations with the major modes of climate variability. The paleo proxy data even suggest that strong tropical eruptions could increase the likelihood of El Niño. E.g., the strongest explosive events of 19th and 20th centuries, Tambora eruption in 1815 and the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in 1991, occurred in El Niño years. After volcanic impacts surface air temperature relaxes typically for 7 years but cooling accumulated in the ocean can be seen for about a century in the sub-thermocline waters. Decrease of deep ocean temperature is associated with negative anomalies of sea level. This provides a mechanism of how short-term volcanic radiative impacts could produce perturbations in climate system that last for centuries producing a cumulative cooling effect. In this study we have employed a coupled climate model (GFDL CM2.1) for calculating impacts of the Big Tambora, and Pinatubo eruptions. The aerosol cloud of Tambora eruption was about 3 times of that from the Pinatubo eruption therefore it produced much stronger climate effect. Here we consider Tambora climate effect in context of a well observed Pinatubo impact because this adds in confidence of simulation results. To synchronize volcanic eruptions and ENSO we have chosen initial conditions from those years of a control run that exhibited, specific ENSO phase and conducted ten 20-year ensemble runs with El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral initial conditions, for each volcano. We found that maximum cooling for El Niño cases tends to shift to the second year after an eruption therefore notorious Tambora's year without a summer was simulated in 1816 as observed. In La Niña cases maximum cooling appears in the year when eruption occurred. In the

  2. Algunos factores de riesgo y fenómenos psicológicos relacionados con el estado de salud bucal Risk factors and psychological phenomena related to the dentistry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magda Lima Álvarez


    Full Text Available Se realizó un estudio descriptivo a 67 sujetos mayores de 15 años pertenecientes al consultorio No. 28 del Policlínico Comunitario Previsora en el período de Abril-noviembre del 2006, para determinar algunos factores de riesgo y fenómenos psicológicos relacionados con el estado de salud bucal. Se obtuvo predominio en las edades de 30 a 44 años con 33 pacientes (49.2 % y el estado de salud bucal medianamente favorable y desfavorable representó un 32.8 % y 41.8 % . El factor de riesgo que más influyó en el estado de salud bucal fue el biológico (77.6%. Al relacionar el diagnóstico estomatológico con la percepción de riesgo de enfermedad bucal la mayoría de los pacientes percibían éste pero no eran capaces de acudir al odontólogo para recibir tratamiento. El 61.2% de los pacientes tenían miedo y el 29,9% correspondió al estado de salud bucal desfavorable. La percepción de riesgo a enfermar se comportó en el 76.1% de los pacientesA descriptive study was carried out to 67 fellows older than 15 years assisted by the neighbourhood clinic No. 28 from the Previsora Community Policlinic in the period of April-November in 2006, to determine risk factors and psychological phenomena related to the state of mouth health problems. Prevalence was obtained with 33 patients (49.2% within the ages 30 to 44 years and the state of fairly favorable and unfavorable dentistry problems represented 37,3%. The risk factor that influenced the most in the state of mouth health problems was the biological one (77.6%. When relating the dentistry diagnostic with the perception of risk of that illness, most of the patients perceived it, but they were not able to go to the orthodontist to receive treatment. 61.2% of the patients were afraid and 50,8% corresponded to the state of fairly favorable and unfavorable mouth health problems. The perception of risk to get sick involved 76.1% of the patients

  3. PREFACE Integrability and nonlinear phenomena Integrability and nonlinear phenomena (United States)

    Gómez-Ullate, David; Lombardo, Sara; Mañas, Manuel; Mazzocco, Marta; Nijhoff, Frank; Sommacal, Matteo


    Back in 1967, Clifford Gardner, John Greene, Martin Kruskal and Robert Miura published a seminal paper in Physical Review Letters which was to become a cornerstone in the theory of integrable systems. In 2006, the authors of this paper received the AMS Steele Prize. In this award the AMS pointed out that `In applications of mathematics, solitons and their descendants (kinks, anti-kinks, instantons, and breathers) have entered and changed such diverse fields as nonlinear optics, plasma physics, and ocean, atmospheric, and planetary sciences. Nonlinearity has undergone a revolution: from a nuisance to be eliminated, to a new tool to be exploited.' From this discovery the modern theory of integrability bloomed, leading scientists to a deep understanding of many nonlinear phenomena which is by no means reachable by perturbation methods or other previous tools from linear theories. Nonlinear phenomena appear everywhere in nature, their description and understanding is therefore of great interest both from the theoretical and applicative point of view. If a nonlinear phenomenon can be represented by an integrable system then we have at our disposal a variety of tools to achieve a better mathematical description of the phenomenon. This special issue is largely dedicated to investigations of nonlinear phenomena which are related to the concept of integrability, either involving integrable systems themselves or because they use techniques from the theory of integrability. The idea of this special issue originated during the 18th edition of the Nonlinear Evolution Equations and Dynamical Systems (NEEDS) workshop, held at Isola Rossa, Sardinia, Italy, 16-23 May 2009 ( The issue benefits from the occasion offered by the meeting, in particular by its mini-workshops programme, and contains invited review papers and contributed papers. It is worth pointing out that there was an open call for papers and all contributions were peer reviewed

  4. Transport phenomena in porous media (United States)

    Bear, Jacob; Corapcioglu, M. Yavuz

    The Advanced Study Institute on Fundamentals of Transport Phenomena in Porous Media, held July 14-23, 1985 in Newark, Del. and directed by Jacob Bear (Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa) and M. Yavuz Corapcioglu (City College of New York), under the auspices of NATO, was a sequel to the NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI) held in 1982 (proceedings published as Fundamentals of Transport Phenomena in Porous Media, J. Bear, and M.Y. Corapcioglu (Ed.), Martinus Nijhoff, Dordrecht, the Netherlands, 1984). The meeting was attended by 106 participants and lecturers from 21 countries.As in the first NATO/ASI, the objective of this meeting—which was a combination of a conference of experts and a teaching institute— was to present and discuss selected topics of transport in porous media. In selecting topics and lecturers, an attempt was made to bridge the gap that sometimes exists between research and practice. An effort was also made to demonstrate the unified approach to the transport of mass of a fluid phase, components of a fluid phase, momentum, and heat in a porous medium domain. The void space may be occupied by a single fluid phase or by a number of such phases; each fluid may constitute a multicomponent system; the solid matrix may be deformable; and the whole process of transport in the system may take place under nonisothermal conditions, with or without phase changes. Such phenomena are encountered in a variety of disciplines, e.g., petroleum engineering, civil engineering (in connection with groundwater flow and contamination), soil mechanics, and chemical engineering. One of the goals of the 1985 NATO/ASI, as in the 1982 institute, was to bring together experts from all these disciplines and enhance communication among them.

  5. Phase transitions and critical phenomena

    CERN Document Server

    Domb, Cyril


    The field of phase transitions and critical phenomena continues to be active in research, producing a steady stream of interesting and fruitful results. It has moved into a central place in condensed matter studies.Statistical physics, and more specifically, the theory of transitions between states of matter, more or less defines what we know about 'everyday' matter and its transformations.The major aim of this serial is to provide review articles that can serve as standard references for research workers in the field, and for graduate students and others wishing to obtain reliable in

  6. Nonlinear Dynamic Phenomena in Mechanics

    CERN Document Server

    Warminski, Jerzy; Cartmell, Matthew P


    Nonlinear phenomena should play a crucial role in the design and control of engineering systems and structures as they can drastically change the prevailing dynamical responses. This book covers theoretical and applications-based problems of nonlinear dynamics concerned with both discrete and continuous systems of interest in civil and mechanical engineering. They include pendulum-like systems, slender footbridges, shape memory alloys, sagged elastic cables and non-smooth problems. Pendulums can be used as a dynamic absorber mounted in high buildings, bridges or chimneys. Geometrical nonlinear

  7. Violent phenomena in the Universe

    CERN Document Server

    Narlikar, Jayant V


    The serenity of a clear night sky belies the evidence-gathered by balloons, rockets, satellites, and telescopes-that the universe contains centers of furious activity that pour out vast amounts of energy, some in regular cycles and some in gigantic bursts. This reader-friendly book, acclaimed by Nature as ""excellent and uncompromising,"" traces the development of modern astrophysics and its explanations of these startling celestial fireworks.This lively narrative ranges from the gravitational theories of Newton and Einstein to recent exciting discoveries of such violent phenomena as supernova

  8. Phase transitions and critical phenomena

    CERN Document Server

    Domb, Cyril


    The field of phase transitions and critical phenomena continues to be active in research, producing a steady stream of interesting and fruitful results. No longer an area of specialist interest, it has acquired a central focus in condensed matter studies. The major aim of this serial is to provide review articles that can serve as standard references for research workers in the field, and for graduate students and others wishing to obtain reliable information on important recent developments.The two review articles in this volume complement each other in a remarkable way. Both deal with what m

  9. Quantum theory of collective phenomena

    CERN Document Server

    Sewell, G L


    ""An excellent and competent introduction to the field … [and] … a source of information for the expert."" - Physics Today""This a book of major importance…. I trust that this book will be used as a basis for the teaching of a balanced, modern and rigorous course on statistical mechanics in all universities."" - Bulletin of the London Mathematical Society""This is one of the best introductions to the subject, and it is strongly recommended to anyone interested in collective phenomena."" - Physics Bulletin ""The book may be recommended for students as a well-balanced introduction to this rich s

  10. Phenomena and Diosignes of Aratous (United States)

    Avgoloupis, S. I.


    Aratous (305-240B.C.) was a singular intellectual, writer and poet which engage himself to compose a very interesting astronomical poet, using the "Dactylous sixstage' style, the formal style of the ancient Greek Epic poetry. This astronomic poem of Aratous "Phenomena and Diosignes" became very favorite reading during the Alexandrine, the Romman and the Byzandin eras as well and had received many praises from significant poets and particularly from Hipparchous and from Theonas from Alexandria, an astronomer of 4rth century A.C.(in Greeks)

  11. Uranium Pyrophoricity Phenomena and Prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DUNCAN, D.R.


    We have compiled a topical reference on the phenomena, experiences, experiments, and prediction of uranium pyrophoricity for the Hanford Spent Nuclear Fuel Project (SNFP) with specific applications to SNFP process and situations. The purpose of the compilation is to create a reference to integrate and preserve this knowledge. Decades ago, uranium and zirconium fires were commonplace at Atomic Energy Commission facilities, and good documentation of experiences is surprisingly sparse. Today, these phenomena are important to site remediation and analysis of packaging, transportation, and processing of unirradiated metal scrap and spent nuclear fuel. Our document, bearing the same title as this paper, will soon be available in the Hanford document system [Plys, et al., 2000]. This paper explains general content of our topical reference and provides examples useful throughout the DOE complex. Moreover, the methods described here can be applied to analysis of potentially pyrophoric plutonium, metal, or metal hydride compounds provided that kinetic data are available. A key feature of this paper is a set of straightforward equations and values that are immediately applicable to safety analysis.

  12. Explaining the Prevalence, Scaling and Variance of Urban Phenomena

    CERN Document Server

    Gomez-Lievano, Andres; Hausmann, Ricardo


    The prevalence of many urban phenomena changes systematically with population size. We propose a theory that unifies models of economic complexity and cultural evolution to derive urban scaling. The theory accounts for the difference in scaling exponents and average prevalence across phenomena, as well as the difference in the variance within phenomena across cities of similar size. The central ideas are that a number of necessary complementary factors must be simultaneously present for a phenomenon to occur, and that the diversity of factors is logarithmically related to population size. The model reveals that phenomena that require more factors will be less prevalent, scale more superlinearly and show larger variance across cities of similar size. The theory applies to data on education, employment, innovation, disease and crime, and it entails the ability to predict the prevalence of a phenomenon across cities, given information about the prevalence in a single city.

  13. Ambroise August Liébeault and psychic phenomena. (United States)

    Alvarado, Carlos S


    Some nineteenth-century hypnosis researchers did not limit their interest to the study of the conventional psychological and behavioral aspects of hypnosis, but also studied and wrote about psychic phenomena such as mental suggestion and clairvoyance. One example, and the topic of this paper, was French physician Ambroise August Liébeault (1823-1904), who influenced the Nancy school of hypnosis. Liébeault wrote about mental suggestion, clairvoyance, mediumship, and even so-called poltergeists. Some of his writings provide conventional explanations of the phenomena. Still of interest today, Liébeault's writings about psychic phenomena illustrate the overlap that existed during the nineteenth-century between hypnosis and psychic phenomena--an overlap related to the potentials of the mind and its subconscious activity.

  14. ENSO Effect on East Asian Tropical Cyclone Landfall via Changes in Tracks and Genesis in a Statistical Model (United States)

    Yonekura, Emmi; Hall, Timothy M.


    Improvements on a statistical tropical cyclone (TC) track model in the western North Pacific Ocean are described. The goal of the model is to study the effect of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on East Asian TC landfall. The model is based on the International Best-Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) database of TC observations for 1945-2007 and employs local regression of TC formation rates and track increments on the Nino-3.4 index and seasonally varying climate parameters. The main improvements are the inclusion of ENSO dependence in the track propagation and accounting for seasonality in both genesis and tracks. A comparison of simulations of the 1945-2007 period with observations concludes that the model updates improve the skill of this model in simulating TCs. Changes in TC genesis and tracks are analyzed separately and cumulatively in simulations of stationary extreme ENSO states. ENSO effects on regional (100-km scale) landfall are attributed to changes in genesis and tracks. The effect of ENSO on genesis is predominantly a shift in genesis location from the southeast in El Nino years to the northwest in La Nina years, resulting in higher landfall rates for the East Asian coast during La Nina. The effect of ENSO on track propagation varies seasonally and spatially. In the peak activity season (July-October), there are significant changes in mean tracks with ENSO. Landfall-rate changes from genesis- and track-ENSO effects in the Philippines cancel out, while coastal segments of Vietnam, China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan show enhanced La Nina-year increases.

  15. El ánima como impulso vital del ensoñador de palabras


    Vejarano Soto, Elizabeth


    Encontrar a Bachelard y su Poética de la Ensoñación es revelador para todo estudioso del lenguaje como forma de expresión, por las calidades de su inspiración intelectual y por el sutil estallido de sensaciones poéticas que despierta su pluma. La innovadora exposición de sus conceptos, la recreación de una teoría, tan vital para la historia de la crítica literaria, en palabras de ensueño y con textos citados de manera perfecta, creando el escenario de la ensoñación, han constituido elementos ...

  16. Emergent Phenomena at Oxide Interfaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hwang, H.Y.


    Transition metal oxides (TMOs) are an ideal arena for the study of electronic correlations because the s-electrons of the transition metal ions are removed and transferred to oxygen ions, and hence the strongly correlated d-electrons determine their physical properties such as electrical transport, magnetism, optical response, thermal conductivity, and superconductivity. These electron correlations prohibit the double occupancy of metal sites and induce a local entanglement of charge, spin, and orbital degrees of freedom. This gives rise to a variety of phenomena, e.g., Mott insulators, various charge/spin/orbital orderings, metal-insulator transitions, multiferroics, and superconductivity. In recent years, there has been a burst of activity to manipulate these phenomena, as well as create new ones, using oxide heterostructures. Most fundamental to understanding the physical properties of TMOs is the concept of symmetry of the order parameter. As Landau recognized, the essence of phase transitions is the change of the symmetry. For example, ferromagnetic ordering breaks the rotational symmetry in spin space, i.e., the ordered phase has lower symmetry than the Hamiltonian of the system. There are three most important symmetries to be considered here. (i) Spatial inversion (I), defined as r {yields} -r. In the case of an insulator, breaking this symmetry can lead to spontaneous electric polarization, i.e. ferroelectricity, or pyroelectricity once the point group belongs to polar group symmetry. (ii) Time-reversal symmetry (T) defined as t {yields} -t. In quantum mechanics, the time-evolution of the wave-function {Psi} is given by the phase factor e{sup -iEt/{h_bar}} with E being the energy, and hence time-reversal basically corresponds to taking the complex conjugate of the wave-function. Also the spin, which is induced by the 'spinning' of the particle, is reversed by time-reversal. Broken T-symmetry is most naturally associated with magnetism, since the

  17. Earthquake prediction with electromagnetic phenomena

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hayakawa, Masashi, E-mail: [Hayakawa Institute of Seismo Electomagnetics, Co. Ltd., University of Electro-Communications (UEC) Incubation Center, 1-5-1 Chofugaoka, Chofu Tokyo, 182-8585 (Japan); Advanced Wireless & Communications Research Center, UEC, Chofu Tokyo (Japan); Earthquake Analysis Laboratory, Information Systems Inc., 4-8-15, Minami-aoyama, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 107-0062 (Japan); Fuji Security Systems. Co. Ltd., Iwato-cho 1, Shinjyuku-ku, Tokyo (Japan)


    Short-term earthquake (EQ) prediction is defined as prospective prediction with the time scale of about one week, which is considered to be one of the most important and urgent topics for the human beings. If this short-term prediction is realized, casualty will be drastically reduced. Unlike the conventional seismic measurement, we proposed the use of electromagnetic phenomena as precursors to EQs in the prediction, and an extensive amount of progress has been achieved in the field of seismo-electromagnetics during the last two decades. This paper deals with the review on this short-term EQ prediction, including the impossibility myth of EQs prediction by seismometers, the reason why we are interested in electromagnetics, the history of seismo-electromagnetics, the ionospheric perturbation as the most promising candidate of EQ prediction, then the future of EQ predictology from two standpoints of a practical science and a pure science, and finally a brief summary.

  18. Transport phenomena in porous media

    CERN Document Server

    Ingham, Derek B


    Research into thermal convection in porous media has substantially increased during recent years due to its numerous practical applications. These problems have attracted the attention of industrialists, engineers and scientists from many very diversified disciplines, such as applied mathematics, chemical, civil, environmental, mechanical and nuclear engineering, geothermal physics and food science. Thus, there is a wealth of information now available on convective processes in porous media and it is therefore appropriate and timely to undertake a new critical evaluation of this contemporary information. Transport Phenomena in Porous Media contains 17 chapters and represents the collective work of 27 of the world's leading experts, from 12 countries, in heat transfer in porous media. The recent intensive research in this area has substantially raised the expectations for numerous new practical applications and this makes the book a most timely addition to the existing literature. It includes recent major deve...

  19. The influence of the tropical circulation on Indian summer monsoon during ENSO (United States)

    Jang, Y.; Straus, D. M.


    The influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Indian Summer Monsoon circulation is studied; focus is on the mechanism involving the change in the tropical circulation, particularly in the western Pacific. The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) is used for mechanistic studies on how the tropical circulation changes (especially movement of regions of ascent and descent) during ENSO influence the Indian Summer Monsoon. For this purpose, additional idealized heating is inserted into the full CAM in the context of summer simulations with climatological SST in order to induce rising motion anomalies that represent the modification of the Walker circulation under different summer time ENSO SST conditions. In this manner, the inadequacies of the parameterization of deep convection in responding to ENSO SST anomalies are avoided. The sensitivity of response of the idealized heating is also tested with different magnitudes and locations of the heating. The coefficients of 2K/day and 1K/day are used for the different magnitudes of the heating. The different locations of heating are inserted from the tropical Indian Ocean to the tropical central Pacific. The inserted heating in each tropical region simulated Gill type responses, although the strength and propagation of the responses are different with the different locations of the heating. Despite of the different locations of the heating, strong remote responses over the Indian region are consistently simulated in CAM while the heating moves from the Indian Ocean to the central Pacific. This is a sort of geophysical fluid dynamics approach, but in the context of a realistic model. My metrics for judging changes in Indian Monsoon circulation will emphasize the Monsoon 3-d circulation.

  20. Measuring past changes in ENSO variance using Mg/Ca measurements on individual planktic foraminifera (United States)

    Marchitto, T. M.; Grist, H. R.; van Geen, A.


    Previous work in Soledad Basin, located off Baja California Sur in the eastern subtropical Pacific, supports a La Niña-like mean-state response to enhanced radiative forcing at both orbital and millennial (solar) timescales during the Holocene. Mg/Ca measurements on the planktic foraminifer Globigerina bulloides indicate cooling when insolation is higher, consistent with an ';ocean dynamical thermostat' response that shoals the thermocline and cools the surface in the eastern tropical Pacific. Some, but not all, numerical models simulate reduced ENSO variance (less frequent and/or less intense events) when the Pacific is driven into a La Niña-like mean state by radiative forcing. Hypothetically the question of ENSO variance can be examined by measuring individual planktic foraminiferal tests from within a sample interval. Koutavas et al. (2006) used d18O on single specimens of Globigerinoides ruber from the eastern equatorial Pacific to demonstrate a 50% reduction in variance at ~6 ka compared to ~2 ka, consistent with the sense of the model predictions at the orbital scale. Here we adapt this approach to Mg/Ca and apply it to the millennial-scale question. We present Mg/Ca measured on single specimens of G. bulloides (cold season) and G. ruber (warm season) from three time slices in Soledad Basin: the 20th century, the warm interval (and solar low) at 9.3 ka, and the cold interval (and solar high) at 9.8 ka. Each interval is uniformly sampled over a ~100-yr (~10-cm or more) window to ensure that our variance estimate is not biased by decadal-scale stochastic variability. Theoretically we can distinguish between changing ENSO variability and changing seasonality: a reduction in ENSO variance would result in narrowing of both the G. bulloides and G. ruber temperature distributions without necessarily changing the distance between their two medians; while a reduction in seasonality would cause the two species' distributions to move closer together.

  1. Predicting monthly precipitation along coastal Ecuador: ENSO and transfer function models (United States)

    de Guenni, Lelys B.; García, Mariangel; Muñoz, Ángel G.; Santos, José L.; Cedeño, Alexandra; Perugachi, Carlos; Castillo, José


    It is well known that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modifies precipitation patterns in several parts of the world. One of the most impacted areas is the western coast of South America, where Ecuador is located. El Niño events that occurred in 1982-1983, 1987-1988, 1991-1992, and 1997-1998 produced important positive rainfall anomalies in the coastal zone of Ecuador, bringing considerable damage to livelihoods, agriculture, and infrastructure. Operational climate forecasts in the region provide only seasonal scale (e.g., 3-month averages) information, but during ENSO events it is key for decision-makers to use reliable sub-seasonal scale forecasts, which at the present time are still non-existent in most parts of the world. This study analyzes the potential predictability of coastal Ecuador rainfall at monthly scale. Instead of the discrete approach that considers training models using only particular seasons, continuous (i.e., all available months are used) transfer function models are built using standard ENSO indices to explore rainfall forecast skill along the Ecuadorian coast and Galápagos Islands. The modeling approach considers a large-scale contribution, represented by the role of a sea-surface temperature index, and a local-scale contribution represented here via the use of previous precipitation observed in the same station. The study found that the Niño3 index is the best ENSO predictor of monthly coastal rainfall, with a lagged response varying from 0 months (simultaneous) for Galápagos up to 3 months for the continental locations considered. Model validation indicates that the skill is similar to the one obtained using principal component regression models for the same kind of experiments. It is suggested that the proposed approach could provide skillful rainfall forecasts at monthly scale for up to a few months in advance.

  2. ENSO diversity as a result of the equatorial recharge oscillator interacting with noise (United States)

    Yu, Yanshan; Dommenget, Dietmar; Frauen, Claudia; Wales, Scott; Wang, Gang; Tyrrell, Nicholas


    In this study we address the cause of the diversity in the spatial structure of ENSO variability. We explore the idea that ENSO is a fixed pattern of variability following the recharge oscillator mechanism, which interacts with the atmospheric weather noise. We present a simulation in which a fixed pattern recharge oscillator model is coupled to an AGCM with a slab ocean model. The model is capable in simulating the leading modes of SST variability in the tropical Pacific with better agreement to the observations than most coupled GCMs in the CMIP database. The ENSO amplitude, seasonality, period, the structure of the leading pattern and its variations in an eastern and central Pacific pattern, i.e. EP El Nino and CP El Nino, are simulated very well by including the interaction of recharge oscillator and slab noise in our model. Furthermore, we find that the observed 1st EOF mode might result from the interaction between slab ocean noise and recharge oscillator which is believed to be only activated in a narrow band along the equator.

  3. Information Entropy Suggests Stronger Nonlinear Associations between Hydro-Meteorological Variables and ENSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tue M. Vu


    Full Text Available Understanding the teleconnections between hydro-meteorological data and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation cycle (ENSO is an important step towards developing flood early warning systems. In this study, the concept of mutual information (MI was applied using marginal and joint information entropy to quantify the linear and non-linear relationship between annual streamflow, extreme precipitation indices over Mekong river basin, and ENSO. We primarily used Pearson correlation as a linear association metric for comparison with mutual information. The analysis was performed at four hydro-meteorological stations located on the mainstream Mekong river basin. It was observed that the nonlinear correlation information is comparatively higher between the large-scale climate index and local hydro-meteorology data in comparison to the traditional linear correlation information. The spatial analysis was carried out using all the grid points in the river basin, which suggests a spatial dependence structure between precipitation extremes and ENSO. Overall, this study suggests that mutual information approach can further detect more meaningful connections between large-scale climate indices and hydro-meteorological variables at different spatio-temporal scales. Application of nonlinear mutual information metric can be an efficient tool to better understand hydro-climatic variables dynamics resulting in improved climate-informed adaptation strategies.

  4. Does stratosphereic sudden warming occur more frequently during ENSO winters than during normal winters? (United States)

    Son, Seok-Woo; Song, Kanghyun


    Stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events exhibit pronounced interannual variability. Based on WMO definition of SSW, it has been suggested that SSW events occur more preferably during El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) winters (both El Niño and La Niña winters) than during normal winters. This nonlinear relationship is re-examined here by considering six different definitions of SSW. For all definitions, SSW events are detected more frequently during El Niño winters than during normal winters, in consistent with an enhanced planetary-scale wave activity. However, a systematic relationship is not found during La Niña winters. While two SSW definitions, including WMO definition, show an increased SSW frequency during La Niña winters, other definitions show no change or even a reduced SSW frequency. This result is insensitive to the choice of reanalysis datasets and ENSO index, indicating that the reported ENSO-SSW relationship is not robust but dependent on the details of SSW definition.

  5. The impact of ENSO on Southern African rainfall in CMIP5 ocean atmosphere coupled climate models (United States)

    Dieppois, Bastien; Rouault, Mathieu; New, Mark


    We study the ability of 24 ocean atmosphere global coupled models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) to reproduce the teleconnections between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Southern African rainfall in austral summer using historical forced simulations, with a focus on the atmospheric dynamic associated with El Niño. Overestimations of summer rainfall occur over Southern Africa in all CMIP5 models. Abnormal westward extensions of ENSO patterns are a common feature of all CMIP5 models, while the warming of the Indian Ocean that happens during El Niño is not correctly reproduced. This could impact the teleconnection between ENSO and Southern African rainfall which is represented with mixed success in CMIP5 models. Large-scale anomalies of suppressed deep-convection over the tropical maritime continent and enhanced convection from the central to eastern Pacific are correctly simulated. However, regional biases occur above Africa and the Indian Ocean, particularly in the position of the deep convection anomalies associated with El Niño, which can lead to the wrong sign in rainfall anomalies in the northwest part of South Africa. From the near-surface to mid-troposphere, CMIP5 models underestimate the observed anomalous pattern of pressure occurring over Southern Africa that leads to dry conditions during El Niño years.

  6. Shock Wave Diffraction Phenomena around Slotted Splitters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesca Gnani


    Full Text Available In the field of aerospace engineering, the study of the characteristics of vortical flows and their unsteady phenomena finds numerous engineering applications related to improvements in the design of tip devices, enhancement of combustor performance, and control of noise generation. A large amount of work has been carried out in the analysis of the shock wave diffraction around conventional geometries such as sharp and rounded corners, but the employment of splitters with lateral variation has hardly attracted the attention of researchers. The investigation of this phenomenon around two-dimensional wedges has allowed the understanding of the basic physical principles of the flow features. On the other hand, important aspects that appear in the third dimension due to the turbulent nature of the vortices are omitted. The lack of studies that use three-dimensional geometries has motivated the current work to experimentally investigate the evolution of the shock wave diffraction around two splitters with spike-shaped structures for Mach numbers of 1.31 and 1.59. Schlieren photography was used to obtain an insight into the sequential diffraction processes that take place in different planes. Interacting among them, these phenomena generate a complicated turbulent cloud with a vortical arrangement.

  7. Instabilities in fluid layers and in reaction-diffusion systems: Steady states, time-periodic solutions, non-periodic attractors, and related convective and otherwise non-linear phenomena

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia Velarde, M.


    Thermo convective instabilities in horizontal fluid layers are discussed with emphasis on the Rayleigh-Bernard model problem. Steady solutions and time-dependent phenomena (relaxation oscillations and transition to turbulence) are studied within the nonlinear Boussinesq-Oberbeck approximation. Homogeneous steady solutions, limit cycles, and inhomogeneous (ordered) spatial structures are also studied in simple reaction-diffusion systems. Lastly, the non-periodic attractor that appears at large Rayleigh numbers in the truncated Boussinesq-Oberbeck model of Lorenz, is constructed, and a discussion of turbulent behavior is given. (Author) 105 refs.

  8. Mid to late Holocene Leeuwin Current variability offshore southern Australia linked to ENSO state changes (United States)

    Perner, Kerstin; Moros, Matthias; De Deckker, Patrick; Blanz, Thomas; Siegel, Herbert; Wacker, Lukas; Schneider, Ralph; Jansen, Eystein


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a key aspect of the Earth's climate, drives regional to global oceanic and climate changes on various time-scales. Differences in the temporal coverage of Holocene records for the more general state in El Niño frequency, however, restrict a comprehensive overview. Oceanic variability offshore southern Australia is linked to the Leeuwin Current (LC), an eastern boundary current, transporting tropical waters from the Indo Pacific Warm Pool region towards higher latitudes. Instrumental data, spanning the last few decades, document that ENSO modulates LC variability. Here we present new, well-dated time series from two marine sediment cores (MD03-2611 and SS0206-GC 15)of past LC variability, based on alkenone-derived sea-surface temperatures (SST) and planktonic foraminifera offshore southern Australia, an area affected by recent El Niño and La Niña events. Our reconstructions of ENSO-state changes cover the last 7,400 years. With transition into the mid Holocene [dates], we find clear evidence that oceanic conditions prevailed under the dominant influence of a persistent La Niña mode. A strong LC produces a stratified water column and establishes a permanent thermocline as seen in the high abundance of the 'tropical fauna' (Globoturborotalita rubescens, Globoturborotalita tenella and Globigerinella sacculifer (including G. trilobus)) and maximum SST offshore southern Australia. During this La Niña-state dominated period, we record at c. 5000 years BP the first short period of a strong El Niño-like-state, by a pronounced drop in abundance of the subtropical species Globigerinoides ruber and a reduced SST gradient between the two core sites. The Late Holocene (from 3,500 years BP onwards) period is characterized by centennial to millennial scale variability in the LC strength, which is accompanied by an overall decrease of SSTs offshore southern Australia. We link this LC variability to Late Holocene centennial

  9. Mathematical methods of studying physical phenomena (United States)

    Man'ko, Margarita A.


    In recent decades, substantial theoretical and experimental progress was achieved in understanding the quantum nature of physical phenomena that serves as the foundation of present and future quantum technologies. Quantum correlations like the entanglement of the states of composite systems, the phenomenon of quantum discord, which captures other aspects of quantum correlations, quantum contextuality and, connected with these phenomena, uncertainty relations for conjugate variables and entropies, like Shannon and Rényi entropies, and the inequalities for spin states, like Bell inequalities, reflect the recently understood quantum properties of micro and macro systems. The mathematical methods needed to describe all quantum phenomena mentioned above were also the subject of intense studies in the end of the last, and beginning of the new, century. In this section of CAMOP 'Mathematical Methods of Studying Physical Phenomena' new results and new trends in the rapidly developing domain of quantum (and classical) physics are presented. Among the particular topics under discussion there are some reviews on the problems of dynamical invariants and their relations with symmetries of the physical systems. In fact, this is a very old problem of both classical and quantum systems, e.g. the systems of parametric oscillators with time-dependent parameters, like Ermakov systems, which have specific constants of motion depending linearly or quadratically on the oscillator positions and momenta. Such dynamical invariants play an important role in studying the dynamical Casimir effect, the essence of the effect being the creation of photons from the vacuum in a cavity with moving boundaries due to the presence of purely quantum fluctuations of the electromagnetic field in the vacuum. It is remarkable that this effect was recently observed experimentally. The other new direction in developing the mathematical approach in physics is quantum tomography that provides a new vision of

  10. EDITORIAL: Quantum phenomena in Nanotechnology Quantum phenomena in Nanotechnology (United States)

    Loss, Daniel


    Twenty years ago the Institute of Physics launched the journal Nanotechnology from its publishing house based in the home town of Paul Dirac, a legendary figure in the development of quantum mechanics at the turn of the last century. At the beginning of the 20th century, the adoption of quantum mechanical descriptions of events transformed the existing deterministic world view. But in many ways it also revolutionised the progress of research itself. For the first time since the 17th century when Francis Bacon established inductive reasoning as the means of advancing science from fact to axiom to law, theory was progressing ahead of experiments instead of providing explanations for observations that had already been made. Dirac's postulation of antimatter through purely theoretical investigation before its observation is the archetypal example of theory leading the way for experiment. The progress of nanotechnology and the development of tools and techniques that enabled the investigation of systems at the nanoscale brought with them many fascinating observations of phenomena that could only be explained through quantum mechanics, first theoretically deduced decades previously. At the nanoscale, quantum confinement effects dominate the electrical and optical properties of systems. They also render new opportunities for manipulating the response of systems. For example, a better understanding of these systems has enabled the rapid development of quantum dots with precisely determined properties, which can be exploited in a range of applications from medical imaging and photovoltaic solar cells to quantum computation, a radically new information technology being currently developed in many labs worldwide. As the first ever academic journal in nanotechnology, {\\it Nanotechnology} has been the forum for papers detailing progress of the science through extremely exciting times. In the early years of the journal, the investigation of electron spin led to the formulation

  11. Inter-annual precipitation variabiity inferred from late Holocene speleothem records from Fiji: implications for SPCZ localisation and ENSO behaviour (United States)

    Mattey, D.; Stephens, M.; Hoffmann, D.; Brett, M.


    The modern tropical Fiji climate is characterised by seasonal rainfall controlled by the position of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). Interannual rainfall is strongly modulated on decadal timescales by ENSO with higher rainfall associated with La Nina events. Voli Voli cave near Sigatoga (Viti Levu) is a stream passage that has been monitored since 2009. A U-Th dated laminated speleothem spans a 1500 year interval across the transition from the Medieval Warm Period into the Little Ice Age marked by a fabric change from finely laminated calcite with thin clay layers, to white well-laminated calcite. The older record is characterised by rising δ13C values followed by a rapid decrease in δ13C around 1200 AD. Evidence from cave monitoring shows that cave air CO2 levels are strongly seasonal as a result of greater ventilation by winter trade winds and high resolution δ13C record shows regularly spaced peaks correlated with paired laminae and cycles in P and S which provide annual markers driven by rainfall and seasonal ventilation. δ18O values remain relatively unchanged throughout the record but micromilling at sub-annual resolution reveals systematic cycles in δ18O that span groups of paired laminae with an inferred periodicity of 3-7 years i.e. a similar frequency to modern ENSO. The presence of these sub-decadal cycles in δ18O may be a result of a combination of factors. The amplitude of 2-3‰ would be equivalent to an amount-effect related change in annual precipitation of around 50% but an additional smoothing process, perhaps a result of aquifer storage, is required to attenuate interannual variance in precipitation. The Voli Voli record provides evidence of an underlying climatic change to more frequent La Niña conditions from 1200 AD and may be associated with increased conflict, shifts in settlements and changes in subsistence strategies on the island. Coeval speleothem isotope records from tropical Pacific Islands provide a provide a

  12. Critical Phenomena in Population Coding (United States)

    Berkowitz, John; Sharpee, Tatyana


    Populations of neurons that code for sensory stimuli are often modeled as having sigmoidal tuning curves where the midpoint and slope of the curve represent, respectively, an intrinsic firing threshold and noise level. Recent studies have shown for two subpopulations of neurons that states below a critical noise level are associated with symmetry breaking between the populations' thresholds. In this work we consider the case of up to seven distinct subpopulations encoding a common gaussian stimulus. We optimized the mutual information between output patterns and stimuli by adjusting the thresholds for a fixed noise level. In the high-noise regime the optimal thresholds are fully redundant whereas the low noise limit predicts distinct threshold values that achieve histogram equalization of the input signal. Between the two limits, the thresholds exhibit a complex branching process that occur at successive values of the noise level. Each branch corresponds to a critical point of a continuous phase transition. The behavior of the system in the limit of a large number of subpopulations is also investigated, and critical phenomena are also present in the distribution of thresholds in this limit.

  13. Sketching Biological Phenomena and Mechanisms. (United States)

    Sheredos, Benjamin; Bechtel, William


    In many fields of biology, both the phenomena to be explained and the mechanisms proposed to explain them are commonly presented in diagrams. Our interest is in how scientists construct such diagrams. Researchers begin with evidence, typically developed experimentally and presented in data graphs. To arrive at a robust diagram of the phenomenon or the mechanism, they must integrate a variety of data to construct a single, coherent representation. This process often begins as the researchers create a first sketch, and it continues over an extended period as they revise the sketch until they arrive at a diagram they find acceptable. We illustrate this process by examining the sketches developed in the course of two research projects directed at understanding the generation of circadian rhythms in cyanobacteria. One identified a new aspect of the phenomenon itself, whereas the other aimed to develop a new mechanistic account. In both cases, the research resulted in a paper in which the conclusion was presented in a diagram that the authors deemed adequate to convey it. These diagrams violate some of the normative "cognitive design principles" advanced by cognitive scientists as constraints on successful visual communication. We suggest that scientists' sketching is instead governed by norms of success that are broadly explanatory: conveying the phenomenon or mechanism. Copyright © 2017 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  14. Eastern and Central Pacific ENSO and their relationships to the recharge/discharge oscillator paradigm (United States)

    Singh, A.; Delcroix, T.


    Four major theories have been proposed to explain the oscillatory nature of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the largest signal on interannual timescales in the tropical Pacific Ocean. These theories, however, were proposed more than a decade ago, before the recent enhanced attention given to a 'new' flavor of El Niño referred to here as central Pacific (CP) El Niño. Different structures between eastern Pacific (EP) and CP events have been found and documented by looking at the location of anomalous patterns in usual climate and biological variables (e.g., sea surface temperature and salinity, wind stress, precipitation, surface zonal currents and chlorophyll). The contrasted EP and CP ENSO features were, however, very poorly documented in terms of dynamics. Consequently, this study aims to test the applicability of one of the leading ENSO theories, the recharge/discharge (RD) oscillator paradigm, to explain the EP and CP ENSO features. In brief, the RD paradigm emphasizes that there is an inward flux of warm waters entering the equatorial band (recharge) at the onset and an outward flux (discharge) during an El Niño event. Accordingly, a key element of the RD paradigm, as well as a notable ENSO precursor, is warm water volume (WWV) and a good proxy for this is sea level anomaly (SLA). We first show the existence of the different flavors of ENSO in the tropical Pacific using monthly 1993-2010 SLA obtained from altimetry, and a validated 1958-2007 DRAKKAR model simulation. An Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering (AHC) technique performed on the observed and modeled WWV, together with the corresponding sea surface temperature, shows the existence of four distinct clusters, which are reminiscent of the conventional EP El Niño and La Niña, and CP El Niño and La Niña. The patterns of EP El Niño and La Niña clusters are almost symmetrical and show a zonal see-saw pattern pivoted near the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool (at around 180

  15. Physical Simulation: Testing the PHYSICALITY of Phenomena (United States)

    Srivastava, Jagdish


    Theories of Quantum Mechanics in which `consciousness' plays a role have been around for decades. For example, Wheeler maintains that no phenomenon is a real phenomenon unless it has been observed. Also, the von Neumann chain, where the wave function is said to collapse when the chain reaches the mind of a conscious observer, is well known. The author's theory of Quantum Reality (denoted by TK) goes a bit further, saying that at the fundamental levels, all phenomena are logical-mathematical objects only, and the experience of their `physicality' is due to the consciousness of the observer. This paper addresses the question, as to how TK (and, the other related theories) could be tested. A procedure for this, termed `Physical Simulation' is proposed. The idea is to create logical-mathematical objects through a computer. Various aspects of this methodology are discussed.

  16. Stochastic phenomena in a fiber Raman amplifier

    CERN Document Server

    Kalashnikov, Vladimir; Ania-Castanón, Juan Diego; Jacobsen, Gunnar; Popov, Sergei


    The interplay of such cornerstones of modern nonlinear fiber optics as a nonlinearity, stochasticity and polarization leads to variety of the noise induced instabilities including polarization attraction and escape phenomena harnessing of which is a key to unlocking the fiber optic systems specifications required in high resolution spectroscopy, metrology, biomedicine and telecommunications. Here, by using direct stochastic modeling, the mapping of interplay of the Raman scattering-based nonlinearity, the random birefringence of a fiber, and the pump-to-signal intensity noise transfer has been done in terms of the fiber Raman amplifier parameters, namely polarization mode dispersion, the relative intensity noise of the pump laser, fiber length, and the signal power. The obtained results reveal conditions for emergence of the random birefringence-induced resonance-like enhancement of the gain fluctuations (stochastic anti-resonance) accompanied by pulse broadening and rare events in the form of low power outpu...

  17. Autistic phenomena in The Adventures of Pinocchio. (United States)

    Smith, Adrian


    This paper seeks to demonstrate that the protagonist of Carlo Collodi's The Adventures of Pinocchio illustrates numerous autistic phenomena such as communication difficulties, sensory and perceptual distortions and mindblindness. While Pinocchio is viewed as a literary construct with contraindications of autism, it will be argued that his autistic traits are sufficient to suggest the possibility that Collodi had a partial intuition of the syndrome 60 years before it was identified by Leo Kanner. Approaching Collodi's text in this manner is taken as an opportunity to survey and reflect upon the psychoanalytic literature on autism and to position it in relation to contemporary theories from cognitive neuroscience. © 2017, The Society of Analytical Psychology.

  18. Observation of Celestial Phenomena in Ancient China (United States)

    Sun, Xiaochun

    Because of the need for calendar-making and portent astrology, the Chinese were diligent and meticulous observers of celestial phenomena. China has maintained the longest continuous historical records of celestial phenomena in the world. Extraordinary or abnormal celestial events were particularly noted because of their astrological significance. The historical records cover various types of celestial phenomena, which include solar and lunar eclipses, sunspots, "guest stars" (novae or supernovae as we understand today), comets and meteors, and all kinds of planetary phenomena. These records provide valuable historical data for astronomical studies today.

  19. Exponential analysis in physical phenomena (United States)

    Istratov, Andrei A.; Vyvenko, Oleg F.


    Many physical phenomena are described by first-order differential equations whose solution is an exponential decay. Determining the time constants and amplitudes of exponential decays from the experimental data is a common task in semiconductor physics (deep level transient spectroscopy), biophysics (fluorescence decay analysis), nuclear physics and chemistry (radioactive decays, nuclear magnetic resonance), chemistry and electrochemistry (reaction kinetics) and medical imaging. This review article discusses the fundamental mathematical limitations of exponential analysis, outlines the critical aspects of acquisition of exponential transients for subsequent analysis, and gives a comprehensive overview of numerical algorithms used in exponential analysis. In the first part of the article the resolution of exponential analysis as a function of noise in input decays is discussed. It is shown that two exponential decays can be resolved in a transient only if the ratio of their time constants is greater than the resolution limit, which can be explicitly calculated from the signal-to-noise ratio in the transient. Although the signal-to-noise ratio is generally limited by the sensitivity of the equipment, it is shown that digitalization of the decays may be a major source of noise. The requirements for type of analog-to-digital converter, number of digitized data points and duration of digitized transients, which must be met to obtain the theoretical resolution limit and to improve stability of the exponential analysis, are formulated. The second part of the review article gives an overview and comparison of major numerical techniques of exponential analysis, such as the nonlinear least squares fit, the Prony method, the method of modulating functions, the method of moments, the Laplace-Padé approximation, the Tikhonov regularization method, the Gardner transformation, the method of maximum entropy and others.

  20. Northern winter stratospheric temperature and ozone responses to ENSO inferred from an ensemble of Chemistry Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Tian


    Full Text Available The connection between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO and the Northern polar stratosphere has been established from observations and atmospheric modeling. Here a systematic inter-comparison of the sensitivity of the modeled stratosphere to ENSO in Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs is reported. This work uses results from a number of the CCMs included in the 2006 ozone assessment. In the lower stratosphere, the mean of all model simulations reports a warming of the polar vortex during strong ENSO events in February–March, consistent with but smaller than the estimate from satellite observations and ERA40 reanalysis. The anomalous warming is associated with an anomalous dynamical increase of column ozone north of 70° N that is accompanied by coherent column ozone decrease in the Tropics, in agreement with that deduced from the NIWA column ozone database, implying an increased residual circulation in the mean of all model simulations during ENSO. The spread in the model responses is partly due to the large internal stratospheric variability and it is shown that it crucially depends on the representation of the tropospheric ENSO teleconnection in the models.

  1. Microgravity Transport Phenomena Experiment (MTPE) Overview (United States)

    Mason, Larry W.


    The Microgravity Transport Phenomena Experiment (MTPE) is a fluids experiment supported by the Fundamentals in Biotechnology program in association with the Human Exploration and Development of Space (BEDS) initiative. The MTP Experiment will investigate fluid transport phenomena both in ground based experiments and in the microgravity environment. Many fluid transport processes are affected by gravity. Osmotic flux kinetics in planar membrane systems have been shown to be influenced by gravimetric orientation, either through convective mixing caused by unstably stratified fluid layers, or through a stable fluid boundary layer structure that forms in association with the membrane. Coupled transport phenomena also show gravity related effects. Coefficients associated with coupled transport processes are defined in terms of a steady state condition. Buoyancy (gravity) driven convection interferes with the attainment of steady state, and the measurement of coupled processes. The MTP Experiment measures the kinetics of molecular migration that occurs in fluids, in response to the application of various driving potentials. Three separate driving potentials may be applied to the MTP Experiment fluids, either singly or in combination. The driving potentials include chemical potential, thermal potential, and electrical potential. Two separate fluid arrangements are used to study membrane mediated and bulk fluid transport phenomena. Transport processes of interest in membrane mediated systems include diffusion, osmosis, and streaming potential. Bulk fluid processes of interest include coupled phenomena such as the Soret Effect, Dufour Effect, Donnan Effect, and thermal diffusion potential. MTP Experiments are performed in the Microgravity Transport Apparatus (MTA), an instrument that has been developed specifically for precision measurement of transport processes. Experiment fluids are contained within the MTA fluid cells, designed to create a one dimensional flow geometry

  2. Assessing the roles of temperature, precipitation, and ENSO in dengue re-emergence on the Texas-Mexico border region. (United States)

    Brunkard, Joan M; Cifuentes, Enrique; Rothenberg, Stephen J


    The goal of this study was to assess linkages between microclimate and longer-term ENSO-related weather forcing on the week-to-week changes in dengue prevalence in Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico, over a recent decade of dengue observations. An auto-regressive model to evaluate the role of climatic factors (sea-surface temperature) and weather (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation) on dengue incidence over the period 1995-2005, was developed by conducting time-series analysis. Dengue incidence increased by 2.6% (95% CI: 0.2-5.1) one week after every 1 degree Celsius increase in weekly maximum temperature and increased 1.9% (95% CI: -0.1-3.9) two weeks after every 1 cm increase in weekly precipitation. Every 1 masculineC increase in sea surface temperatures (El Niño region 3.4 ) was followed by a 19.4% (95% CI: -4.7-43.5) increase in dengue incidence (18 weeks later). Climate and weather factors play a small but significant role in dengue transmission in Matamoros, Mexico. This study may provide baseline information for identifying potential longer-term effects of global climate change on dengue expected in the coming decades. To our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the potential associations between climate and weather events and dengue incidence in this geographical area.

  3. Millisecond phenomena in mass accreting neutron stars

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Klis, M.; Cohen, L.


    The past twelve years have seen the discovery, with NASA's Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE), of several long-predicted phenomena associated with the accretion of matter onto a neutron star in a binary (double) star system. These phenomena are observed in the strong X-ray emission produced by these

  4. Electrical breakdown phenomena of dielectric elastomers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mateiu, Ramona Valentina; Yu, Liyun; Skov, Anne Ladegaard


    years. However, optimization with respect to the dielectric permittivity solely may lead to other problematic phenomena such as premature electrical breakdown. In this work, we investigate the electrical breakdown phenomena of various types of permittivity-enhanced silicone elastomers. Two types...

  5. Massive bleaching of coral reefs induced by the 2010 ENSO, Puerto Cabello, Venezuela. (United States)

    del Mónaco, Carlos; Haiek, Gerard; Narciso, Samuel; Galindo, Miguel


    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has generated global coral massive bleaching. The aim of this work was to evaluate the massive bleaching of coral reefs in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela derived from ENSO 2010. We evaluated the bleaching of reefs at five localities both at three and five meter depth. The coral cover and densities of colonies were estimated. We recorded living coral cover, number and diameter of bleached and non-bleached colonies of each coral species. The colonies were classified according to the proportion of bleached area. Satellite images (Modis Scar) were analyzed for chlorophyll-a concentration and temperature in August, September, October and November from 2008-2010. Precipitation, wind speed and air temperature information was evaluated in meteorological data for 2009 and 2010. A total of 58.3% of colonies, belonging to 11 hexacoral species, were affected and the greatest responses were observed in Colpophyllia natans, Montastraea annularis and Montastraeafaveolata. The most affected localities were closer to the mainland and had a bleached proportion up to 62.73+/-36.55%, with the highest proportion of affected colonies, whereas the farthest locality showed 20.25+/-14.00% bleached and the smallest proportion. The salinity in situ varied between 30 and 33ppm and high levels of turbidity were observed. According to the satellite images, in 2010 the surface water temperature reached 31 degree C in August, September and October, and resulted higher than those registered in 2008 and 2009. Regionally, chlorophyll values were higher in 2010 than in 2008 and 2009. The meteorological data indicated that precipitation in November 2010 was three times higher than in November 2009. Massive coral bleaching occurred due to a three month period of high temperatures followed by one month of intense ENSO-associated precipitation. However, this latter factor was likely the trigger because of the bleaching gradient observed.

  6. ENSO influence on the interannual variability of the Red Sea convergence zone and associated rainfall

    KAUST Repository

    Dasari, Hari Prasad


    The Red Sea convergence zone (RSCZ) is formed by opposite surface winds blowing from northwest to southeast directions at around 18°-19°N between October and January. A reverse-oriented, low-level monsoon trough at 850hPa, known as the Red Sea trough (RST), transfers moisture from the southern Red Sea to RSCZ. The positions of the RSCZ and RST and the intensity of the RST have been identified as important factors in modulating weather and climatic conditions across the Middle East. Here, we investigate the influence of the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of RSCZ, RST, and regional rainfall during winter months. Our results indicate that El Niño (warm ENSO phase) favours a shift of the RSCZ to the north and a strengthening of the RST in the same direction. Conversely, during November and December of La Niña periods (cold ENSO phase), the RSCZ shift to the south and the RST strengthens in the same direction. During El Niño periods, southeasterly wind speeds increase (20-30%) over the southern Red Sea and northwesterly wind speeds decrease (10-15%) over the northern Red Sea. Noticeable increases in the number of rainy days and the intensity of rain events are observed during El Niño phases. These increases are associated with colder than normal air intrusion at lower levels from the north combined with warm air intrusion from the south over the RSCZ. Our analysis suggests that during El Niño winters, warmer sea surface temperatures and higher convective instability over the Red Sea favour local storms conditions and increase rainfall over the Red Sea and adjoining regions.

  7. A structural equation model analysis of relationships among ENSO, seasonal descriptors and wildfires.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew G Slocum

    Full Text Available Seasonality drives ecological processes through networks of forcings, and the resultant complexity requires creative approaches for modeling to be successful. Recently ecologists and climatologists have developed sophisticated methods for fully describing seasons. However, to date the relationships among the variables produced by these methods have not been analyzed as networks, but rather with simple univariate statistics. In this manuscript we used structural equation modeling (SEM to analyze a proposed causal network describing seasonality of rainfall for a site in south-central Florida. We also described how this network was influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO, and how the network in turn affected the site's wildfire regime. Our models indicated that wet and dry seasons starting later in the year (or ending earlier were shorter and had less rainfall. El Niño conditions increased dry season rainfall, and via this effect decreased the consistency of that season's drying trend. El Niño conditions also negatively influenced how consistent the moistening trend was during the wet season, but in this case the effect was direct and did not route through rainfall. In modeling wildfires, our models showed that area burned was indirectly influenced by ENSO via its effect on dry season rainfall. Area burned was also indirectly reduced when the wet season had consistent rainfall, as such wet seasons allowed fewer wildfires in subsequent fire seasons. Overall area burned at the study site was estimated with high accuracy (R (2 score = 0.63. In summary, we found that by using SEMs, we were able to clearly describe causal patterns involving seasonal climate, ENSO and wildfire. We propose that similar approaches could be effectively applied to other sites where seasonality exerts strong and complex forcings on ecological processes.

  8. ENSO and sandy beach macrobenthos of the tropical East Pacific: some speculations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Vanagt


    Full Text Available The influence of the ENSO cycle on marine fauna and flora has only recently been given the attention it deserves. The very strong 1997–1998 El Niño and its obvious effects on marine biota was a key point in ENSO research, but unfortunately few quantitative data about the 1997–1998 El Niño itself are available. To gather information about the effect of ENSO on the macrobenthos, we performed a bi-weekly transect monitoring on an Ecuadorian sandy beach in 2000–2001, during the strong La Niña following the 1997–1998 El Niño, and in the normal period of 2002–2004. In this paper, intertidal macrofaunal densities at higher taxonomic level are used to compare a La Niña phase with the 'normal' situation. The few existing documents about El Niño and sandy beach macrobenthos, and scattered data from previous and current research, were used to complete the picture. Total macrobenthos densities were 300% lower during the La Niña phase compared with equal months in the normal phase. Especially Crustacea and Mollusca showed a marked increase in densities towards the normal situation (94% and 341% respectively. Polychaeta and Echinodermata, however, showed higher densities during the La Niña phase (22% and 73% respectively. Two possible explanations are proposed. (1 Low densities during the La Niña could be due to the very strong preceding El Niño, suggesting the populations were still recovering. This hypothesis is supported by previous work done in the south of Peru. This is, however, a cold water system, compared to the Ecuadorian warm water system. (2 The second hypothesis states that a La Niña will have a very severe impact on the intertidal macrofauna of a warm water system like the Ecuadorian coast.

  9. Psychosocial Aspects of Dental Anxiety and Clinical Pain Phenomena

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moore, Rod

    This Danish Doctoral Dissertation in the science of Odontology contains 7 chapters: 1) Introduction to a social perspective on dental treatment, anxiety and pain throughout time, 2) research models and methods to study dental anxiety and clinical pain phenomena, 3) the fear of dental treatment...... .. what it is and what it is not and how many have it, 4) clinical pain treatment, psychosocial aspects in relation to anxiety, 4) patients and dentists' roles, pain perception and anxiety, 6) psychosocial aspects of managing anxiety and pain phenomena, and 7) Conclusions and proposals for the future...

  10. Understanding the Physics of changing mass phenomena (United States)

    Ellermeijer, A. L.


    Changing mass phenomena, like a falling chain or a bungee jumper, might give surprising results, even for experienced physicists. They have resulted in hot discussions in journals, in which for instance Physics professors claim the impossibility of an acceleration larger then g in case of a bungee jumper. These phenomena are also interesting as topics for challenging student projects, and used as such by Dutch high school students. I will take these phenomena as the context in which I like to demonstrate the possibilities of ICT in the learning process of physics. Especially dynamical modeling enables us to describe these phenomena in an elegant way and with knowledge of high school mathematics. Furthermore tools for video-analysis and data from measurements with sensors allow us to study the phenomena in experiments. This example demonstrates the level of implementation of ICT in Physics Education in The Netherlands [1].

  11. Eighty Phenomena About the Self: Representation, Evaluation, Regulation, and Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul eThagard


    Full Text Available We propose a new approach for examining self-related aspects and phenomena. The approach includes (1 a taxonomy and (2 an emphasis on multiple levels of mechanisms. The taxonomy categorizes approximately eighty self-related phenomena according to three primary functions involving the self: representing, effecting, and changing. The representing self encompasses the ways in which people depict themselves, either to themselves or to others (e.g., self-concepts, self-presentation. The effecting self concerns ways in which people facilitate or limit their own traits and behaviors (e.g., self-enhancement, self-regulation. The changing self is less time-limited than the regulating self; it concerns phenomena that involve lasting alterations in how people represent and control themselves (e.g., self-expansion, self-development. Each self-related phenomenon within these three categories may be examined at four levels of interacting mechanisms (social, individual, neural, and molecular. We illustrate our approach by focusing on seven self-related phenomena.

  12. Emergence of Architectural Phenomena in the Human Habitation of Space (United States)

    Collen, Arne

    Considering the impact on human beings and human activities of architectural decisions in the design of space for human habitation, this chapter discusses the increasingly evident and necessary confluence in contemporary times of many disciplines and human-oriented sciences, with architecture being the meeting ground to know emergent phenomena of human habitation. As both a general rubric and a specific phenomenon, architectural emergence is the chosen focus of discussion and other phenomena are related to it. Attention is given to the phenomena of architectural induction, emergence, and convergence as having strategic and explanatory value in understanding tensions between two competing mentalities, the global domineering nature-for-humans attitude, in opposition to the lesser practiced humans-for-nature attitude.

  13. Rapid drawdown of Antarctica's Wordie Ice Shelf glaciers in response to ENSO/Southern Annular Mode-driven warming in the Southern Ocean (United States)

    Walker, C. C.; Gardner, A. S.


    Here we investigate the largest acceleration in ice flow across all of Antarctica between ∼2008 InSAR and 2014 Landsat velocity mappings. This occurred in glaciers that used to feed into the Wordie Ice Shelf on the west Antarctic Peninsula, which rapidly disintegrated in ∼1989. Between 2008 and 2014, these glaciers experienced at least a threefold increase in surface elevation drawdown relative to the 2002-2008 time period. After ∼20 yrs of relative stability, it is unlikely that the ice shelf collapse played a role in the large response. Instead, we find that the rapid acceleration and surface drawdown is linked to enhanced melting at the ice-ocean boundary, attributable to changes in winds driven by global atmospheric circulation patterns, namely the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM), linking changes in grounded ice to atmospheric-driven ocean warming.

  14. PDO modulation of the ENSO impact on the summer South Asian high (United States)

    Xue, Xu; Chen, Wen; Chen, Shangfeng; Feng, Juan


    This study investigates modulation effects of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on the impact of boreal winter El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the South Asian high (SAH) variability in the following summer. In the El Niño together with positive PDO (EL/+PDO) or the La Niña together with negative PDO (LA/-PDO) years, boreal winter ENSO can influence the following summer SAH activity significantly. The SAH tends to be obviously strengthened (weakened) and located further south (north) during EL/+PDO (LA/-PDO). However, in the El Niño together with negative PDO (EL/-PDO) or the La Niña together with positive PDO (LA/+PDO) years, the influence of ENSO on the SAH tends to be weak. The strength and location of SAH are close to those in the climatology of 1950-2011 during the EL/-PDO or the LA/+PDO. Further analysis indicates that the PDO could exert pronounced influence on the ENSO-SAH connection via modulating the anomalous Walker circulation and charge effect over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). During the EL/+PDO or LA/-PDO, the anomalous Walker circulation associated with El Niño or La Niña is stronger and lasts for a longer time than those during the EL/-PDO or LA/+PDO. This leads to stronger descending (ascending) motion over the Maritime Continent and easterly (westerly) wind anomalies over the eastern Indian Ocean in the EL/+PDO (LA/-PDO), which further exert larger effects on the surface heat fluxes and subsurface ocean dynamical heating process over the Indian Ocean. As such, the induced warm (cold) sea surface temperature anomalies over the Indian Ocean are more significant and larger in the EL/+PDO (LA/-PDO). These larger sea surface temperature anomalies over the TIO could exert a more significant influence on the tropospheric temperature via moisture adjustment, which subsequently results in stronger SAH variability in the EL/+PDO or the LA/-PDO.

  15. ENSO-Type Signals Recorded in the Late Cretaceous Laminated Sediments of Songliao Basin, Northeast China (United States)

    Yu, E.; Wang, C.; Hinnov, L. A.; Wu, H.


    The quasi-periodic, ca. 2-7 year El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon globally influences the inter-annual variability of temperature and precipitation. Global warming may increase the frequency of extreme ENSO events. Although the Cretaceous plate tectonic configuration was different from today, the sedimentary record suggests that ENSO-type oscillations had existed at the time of Cretaceous greenhouse conditions. Cored Cretaceous lacustrine sediments from the Songliao Basin in Northeast China (SK-1 cores from the International Continental Drilling Program) potentially offer a partially varved record of Cretaceous paleoclimate. Fourteen polished thin sections from the depth interval 1096.12-1096.53 m with an age of 84.4 Ma were analyzed by optical and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). ImageJ software was applied to extract gray scale curves from optical images at pixel resolution. We tracked minimum values of the gray scale curves to estimate the thickness of each lamina. Five sedimentary structures were recognized: flaser bedding, wavy bedding, lenticular bedding, horizontal bedding, and massive layers. The mean layer thicknesses with different sedimentary structures range from 116 to 162mm, very close to the mean sedimentation rate estimated for this sampled interval, 135mm/year, indicating that the layers bounded by pure clay lamina with the minimum gray values are varves. SEM images indicate that a varve is composed, in succession, of one lamina rich in coarse silt, one lamina rich in fine silt, one clay-rich lamina with some silt, and one clay-rich lamina. This suggests that a Cretaceous year featured four distinct depositional seasons, two of which were rainy and the others were lacking precipitation. Spectral analysis of extended intervals of the tuned gray scale curve indicates the presence of inter-annual periodicities of 2.2-2.7 yr, 3.5-6.1 year, and 10.1-14.5 year consistent with those of modern ENSO cycles and solar cycles, as well as

  16. Precedent Phenomena in Quebecois Linguistic World View

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ксения Эдуардовна Болотина


    Full Text Available This article is devoted to the linguocultural analysis of precedent phenomena as parts of Quebecois’ cognitive base. Precedent phenomena being cultural facts are one of the key issues in modern linguistic and cognitive studies. By precedent phenomena we mean, according to Y.E. Prohorov, such entities when verbalized in discourse that refer to a certain cultural fact behind them. In the article the precedent phenomena such as precedent text, precedent situation, precedent utterance, and precedent name are analyzed. The main theses of the precedence theory given in the article (Y.N. Karaulov, Y.E. Prohorov, V.V. Krasnyh, D.B. Gudkov are at the heart of precedence studies on the basis of different languages. However, a complex analysis of precedent phenomena in the Quebec national variant of French is new to Russian linguistics. The study of precedent phenomena enables us to elicit features of their functioning in ethnospecific discourse and determine cultural dominants existing in Quebecois’ linguistic world view. Given the fact that the size of the article is limited, we undertooke the analysis of eight phenomena precedent of the bearers of Quebec linguoculture. The choice of phenomena is determined by the frequency of their use in discourse. The facts analyzed are of national character, i.e. known to all members of the linguocultural community. A certain cultural fact is at the very core of each precedent phenomenon given in the article. To get the whole picture we analysed historic, political, and cultural context connected to the precedent phenomena in question. The study enables us to elicit distinctive features that are at the core of each phenomenon. The results are backed with the supportive material drawn from analysis of different types of discourse. The analysis of precedent phenomena undertaken in this article allows us to reconstruct, to a certain extent, Quebec cultural space and is a stepping stone to the reconstruction of the

  17. Quantifying the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) coupling to CO2 concentration and to the length of day variations

    CERN Document Server

    Mazzarella, A; Scafetta, N


    The El Ni\\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the Earth's strongest climate fluctuation on inter-annual time-scales and has global impacts although originating in the tropical Pacific. Many point indices have been developed to describe ENSO but the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is considered the most representative since it links six different meteorological parameters measured over the tropical Pacific. Extreme values of MEI are correlated to the extreme values of atmospheric CO2 concentration rate variations and negatively correlated to equivalent scale extreme values of the length of day (LOD) rate variation. We evaluate a first order conversion function between MEI and the other two indexes using their annual rate of variation. The quantification of the strength of the coupling herein evaluated provides a quantitative measure to test the accuracy of theoretical model predictions. Our results further confirm the idea that the major local and global Earth-atmosphere system mechanisms are significantly couple...

  18. Simulation of Magnetic Phenomena at Realistic Interfaces

    KAUST Repository

    Grytsyuk, Sergiy


    In modern technology exciting developments are related to the ability to understand and control interfaces. Particularly, magnetic interfaces revealing spindependent electron transport are of great interest for modern spintronic devices, such as random access memories and logic devices. From the technological point of view, spintronic devices based on magnetic interfaces enable manipulation of the magnetism via an electric field. Such ability is a result of the different quantum effects arising from the magnetic interfaces (for example, spin transfer torque or spin-orbit torque) and it can reduce the energy consumption as compared to the traditional semiconductor electronic devices. Despite many appealing characteristics of these materials, fundamental understanding of their microscopic properties and related phenomena needs to be established by thorough investigation. In this work we implement first principles calculations in order to study the structural, electric, and magnetic properties as well as related phenomena of two types of interfaces with large potential in spintronic applications: 1) interfaces between antiferromagnetic 3d-metal-oxides and ferromagnetic 3d-metals and 2) interfaces between non-magnetic 5d(4d)- and ferromagnetic 3d-metals. A major difficulty in studying such interfaces theoretically is the typically large lattice mismatch. By employing supercells with Moir e patterns, we eliminate the artificial strain that leads to doubtful results and are able to describe the dependence of the atomic density at the interfaces on the component materials and their thicknesses. After establishing understanding about the interface structures, we investigate the electronic and magnetic properties. A Moir e supercell with transition layer is found to reproduce the main experimental findings and thus turns out to be the appropriate model for simulating magnetic misfit interfaces. In addition, we systematically study the magnetic anisotropy and Rashba band

  19. Towards the use of HYCOM in Coupled ENSO Prediction: Assessment of ENSO Skill in Forced Global HYCOM (United States)


    eastern part. The simulated thermocline tilt is too low, which is likely another symptom of weak mean wind forcing. Mean salinity misfits range from...temperature and salinity biases do not compensate in such as way that the pycnocline tilt matches that of Argo. A complete set of mean and RMS misfits were...provide increased confidence in projections for decision making. RELATED PROJECTS "Optimized Infrastructure for the Earth System Prediction Capability

  20. Fourteenth International Conference on Ultrafast Phenomena

    CERN Document Server

    Kobayashi, Takayoshi; Kobayashi, Tetsuro; Nelson, Keith A; Silvestri, Sandro; Ultrafast Phenomena XIV


    Ultrafast Phenomena XIV presents the latest advances in ultrafast science, including ultrafast laser and measurement technology as well as studies of ultrafast phenomena. Pico-, femto-, and atosecond processes relevant in physics, chemistry, biology and engineering are presented. Ultrafast technology is now having a profound impact within a wide range of applications, among them imaging, material diagnostics, and transformation and high-speed optoelectronics. This book summarizes results presented at the 14th Ultrafast Phenomena Conference and reviews the state of the art in this important and rapidly advancing field.

  1. Transient phenomena in electrical power systems

    CERN Document Server

    Venikov, V A; Higinbotham, W


    Electronics and Instrumentation, Volume 24: Transient Phenomena in Electrical Power Systems presents the methods for calculating the stability and the transient behavior of systems with forced excitation control. This book provides information pertinent to the analysis of transient phenomena in electro-mechanical systems.Organized into five chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the principal requirements in an excitation system. This text then explains the electromagnetic and electro-mechanical phenomena, taking into account the mutual action between the components of the system. Ot

  2. Developing Phenomena Models from Experimental Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Niels Rode; Madsen, Henrik; Jørgensen, Sten Bay


    unknown functionality behind various phenomena in first engineering principles models using experimental data. The proposed modelling approach has significant application potential, e.g. for determining unknown reaction kinetics in both chemical and biological processes. To illustrate the performance......A systematic approach for developing phenomena models from experimental data is presented. The approach is based on integrated application of stochastic differential equation (SDE) modelling and multivariate nonparametric regression, and it is shown how these techniques can be used to uncover...... of the approach, a case study is presented, which shows how an appropriate phenomena model for the growth rate of biomass in a fed-batch bioreactor can be inferred from data....

  3. Developing Phenomena Models from Experimental Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    unknown functionality behind various phenomena in first engineering principles models using experimental data. The proposed modelling approach has significant application potential, e.g. for determining unknown reaction kinetics in both chemical and biological processes. To illustrate the performance......A systematic approach for developing phenomena models from experimental data is presented. The approach is based on integrated application of stochastic differential equation (SDE) modelling and multivariate nonparametric regression, and it is shown how these techniques can be used to uncover...... of the approach, a case study is presented, which shows how an appropriate phenomena model for the growth rate of biomass in a fed-batch bioreactor can be inferred from data....

  4. Diurnal atmosphere-ocean signals in Earth's rotation rate and a possible modulation through ENSO (United States)

    Schindelegger, M.; Salstein, D.; Einšpigel, D.; Mayerhofer, C.


    Space geodetic determinations of a 6 μs length-of-day (LOD) anomaly at the diurnal S1 frequency are reconciled with excitation estimates from geophysical fluid models. Preference is given to a hybrid excitation scheme that combines atmospheric torques with oceanic angular momentum (OAM) terms from hydrodynamic forward modeling. A joint inversion of all data sets yields an LOD in-phase and quadrature estimate of (5.91, -0.22) μs, matching space geodetic S1 terms well within their formal uncertainties. Non-harmonic LOD excitations, while less than 30% of the time-averaged rotation rate contribution, are conclusively linked to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as the main perturbation of diurnal cycle characteristics in the troposphere. ENSO modulations of particular relevance are those in OAM, associated with the barotropic ocean response to regional modifications in the diurnal atmospheric pressure wave. The study thus highlights previously unexplored aspects of non-tidal mass-field variability in the Earth system.

  5. Amplification of the ENSO Effects on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall by Absorbing Aerosols (United States)

    Kim, Maeng-Ki; Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Sang, Jeong; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Lee, Woo-Seop


    In this study, we present observational evidence of the elevated heat pump (EHP) effect and modulation of the ENSO effect on Indian summer monsoon rainfall by absorbing aerosols based on a composite analysis of satellite measurements and MERRA reanalysis data for the period 1979-2011. Results show that in the pre-monsoon season (April to May) rainfall during a La Nina is reduced over the expansive desert region from western Asia, including the Middle East, to northern India and thereby the La Nina effect provides abundant aerosols that are necessary to work the EHP effect in the northern India. Thus, the EHP effect due to abundant absorbing aerosols during a La Nina phase is strongly associated with atmospheric warming, increased moisture transport from the Indian Ocean to the Bay of Bengal, and enhanced pre-monsoon (May-June) rainfall over northern India. As a result, precipitation in May to June in northern India (20-30°N) increases by approximately 20% and 25% due to the pure ENSO (PENSO) and EHP effects, respectively, while precipitation in May and June increased by approximately 30% due to the combined effect. This finding suggests that the EHP effect plays an important role in amplifying the La Nina effect on Indian summer monsoon.

  6. A New Technique to Observe ENSO Activity via Ground-Based GPS Receivers (United States)

    Suparta, Wayan; Iskandar, Ahmad; Singh, Mandeep Singh Jit

    In an attempt to study the effects of global climate change in the tropics for improving global climate model, this paper aims to detect the ENSO events, especially El Nino phase by using ground-based GPS receivers. Precipitable water vapor (PWV) obtained from the Global Positioning System (GPS) Meteorology measurements in line with the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTa) are used to connect their response to El Niño activity. The data gathered from four selected stations over the Southeast Asia, namely PIMO (Philippines), KUAL (Malaysia), NTUS (Singapore) and BAKO (Indonesia) for the year of 2009/2010 were processed. A strong correlation was observed for PIMO station with a correlation coefficient of -0.90, significantly at the 99 % confidence level. In general, the relationship between GPS PWV and SSTa at all stations on a weekly basis showed with a negative correlation. The negative correlation indicates that during the El Niño event, the PWV variation was in decreased trend. Decreased trend of PWV value is caused by a dry season that affected the GPS signals in the ocean-atmospheric coupling. Based on these promising results, we can propose that the ground-based GPS receiver is capable used to monitor ENSO activity and this is a new prospective method that previously unexplored.

  7. Enhanced Late Holocene ENSO/PDO expression along the margins of the eastern North Pacific (United States)

    Barron, John A.; Anderson, Lesleigh


    Pacific climate is known to have varied during the Holocene, but spatial patterns remain poorly defined. This paper compiles terrestrial and marine proxy data from sites along the northeastern Pacific margins and proposes that they indicate 1) suppressed ENSO conditions during the middle Holocene between ∼8000 and 4000 cal BP with a North Pacific that generally resembled a La Niña-like or more negative PDO phase and 2) a climate transition between ∼4200 and 3000 cal BP that appears to be the teleconnected expression to a more modern-like ENSO Pacific. Compared to modern day conditions, the compiled data suggest that during the middle Holocene, the Aleutian Low was generally weaker during the winter and/or located more to the west, while the North Pacific High was stronger during the summer and located more to the north. Coastal upwelling off California was more enhanced during the summer and fall but suppressed during the spring. Oregon and California sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were cooler. The Santa Barbara Basin had an anomalous record, suggesting warmer SSTs.

  8. Interannual Modulation of Subtropical Atlantic Boreal Summer Dust Variability by ENSO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeFlorio, Mike; Goodwin, Ian D.; Cayan, Dan; Miller, Arthur J.; Ghan, Steven J.; Pierce, David; Russell, Lynn M.; Singh, Balwinder


    Dust variability in the climate system has been studied for several decades, yet there remains an incomplete understanding of the dynamical mechanisms controlling interannual and decadal variations in dust transport. The sparseness of multi-year observational datasets has limited our understanding of the relationship between climate variations and atmospheric dust. We use available observations and a century-length fully coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulation to show that the El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts a control on North African dust transport during boreal summer. In CESM, this relationship is stronger over the dusty tropical North Atlantic than near Barbados, one of the few sites having a multi-decadal observed record. During strong La Niña summers in CESM, a statistically significant increase in lower tropospheric easterly wind is associated with an increase in North African dust transport over the Atlantic. Barbados dust and Pacific SST variability are only weakly correlated in both observations and CESM, suggesting that other processes are controlling the crossbasin variability of dust. We also use our CESM simulation to show that the relationship between downstream North African dust transport and ENSO fluctuates on multidecadal timescales and may be modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our findings indicate that existing observations of dust over the tropical North Atlantic are not extensive enough to completely describe the variability of dust and dust transport, and demonstrate the importance of global models to supplement and interpret observational records.

  9. Cold tongue/Warm pool and ENSO dynamics in the Pliocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. S. von der Heydt


    Full Text Available It has been suggested that a "permanent" El Niño climate state has existed in the warm Pliocene. One of the main pieces of evidence of such conditions is the small east-west sea surface temperature (SST difference that is found in proxy temperature records of the equatorial Pacific. Using a coupled version of the Zebiak-Cane model of intermediate complexity for the tropical Pacific, we study the sensitivity of the time-mean Pacific background state and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO variability to Pliocene climate changes. The parameters varied in this sensitivity study include changes in the trade wind strength due to a reduced equator-to-pole temperature gradient, higher global mean temperatures and an open Panama gateway. All these changes lead to a westward shift of the position of the cold tongue along the equator by up to 2000 km. This result is consistent with data from the PRISM3D Pliocene SST reconstruction. Our model further suggests that ENSO variability is present in the Pliocene climate with only slight changes as compared to today. A background climate that would resemble a "permanent" El Niño with weak to no east-west temperature difference along the equator is only found for very weak trade winds which seem unrealistic for the Pliocene climate.

  10. Seasonal precipitation reconstruction and teleconnections with ENSO based on tree ring analysis of Pinus cooperi (United States)

    Pompa-García, Marín; Jurado, Enrique


    Tendencies of climatic variability indicate that northern Mexico will soon suffer from severe drought. Modeling the influence of climate and ecological processes would help researchers better understand the future implication of climatic variations. Here, we reconstructed historical seasonal precipitation using dendrochronological indices of Pinus cooperi and El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO). Correlation analysis was conducted to establish the precipitation response period; then a reconstruction model using independent variables was constructed using regression procedures. Available data were calibrated and verified to strengthen and validate the modeled reconstruction. Precipitation from the previous winter was best correlated with tree growth. Regression procedures showed that the residual chronology associated in a linear model with El Niño 3.4 explained 47 % of seasonal precipitation variability. This study contributes to a better understanding of historical variations in precipitation and the influence of ENSO in common tree species of northern Mexico to help land managers improve local forest management in a climate change scenario.

  11. The influence of ENSO on an oceanic eddy pair in the South China Sea (United States)

    Chu, Xiaoqing; Dong, Changming; Qi, Yiquan


    An eddy pair off the Vietnam coast is one of the most important features of the summertime South China Sea circulation. Its variability is of interest due to its profound impact on regional climate, ecosystems, biological processes, and fisheries. This study examines the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a basin-scale climatic mode, on the interannual variability of this regional eddy pair using satellite observational data and historical hydrographic measurements. Over the last three decades, the eddy pair strengthened in 1994 and 2002, and weakened in 2006, 2007, and 2008. It was absent in 1988, 1995, 1998, and 2010, coinciding with strong El Nino-to-La Nina transitions. Composite analyses showed that the strong transition events of ENSO led to radical changes in the summer monsoon, through the forcing of a unique sea surface temperature anomaly structure over the tropical Indo-Pacific basin. With weaker zonal wind, a more northward wind direction, and the disappearance of a pair of positive and negative wind stress curls, the eastward current jet turns northward along the Vietnam coast and the eddy pair disappears.

  12. Mechanisms of the global electric circuit and lightning variability on the ENSO time scale (United States)

    Mareev, Evgeny; Volodin, Evgeny; Slyunyaev, Nikolay


    Many studies of lightning activity on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) time scale show increased activity over tropical land areas during the warm El Niño phase (e.g., Satori et al., 2009; Price, 2009). The mechanisms of this variability—particularly in terms of its role in the global electric circuit (GEC)—are still under debate (e.g., Williams and Mareev, 2014). In this study a general circulation model of the atmosphere and ocean INMCM4.0 (Institute of Numerical Mathematics Coupled Model) is used for modelling the GEC variability on the ENSO time scale. The ionospheric potential (IP) and the lightning flash rate are calculated to study regional peculiarities and possible mechanisms of lightning variation. The IP parameterisation is used (Mareev and Volodin, 2014) which takes into account quasi-stationary currents of electrified clouds (including thunderstorms) as principal contributors into the DC global circuit. The account of conductivity variation in the IP parameterisation is suggested based on the approach realised in (Slyunyaev et al., 2014). Comparison of simulation results with the observational data on lightning activity on the ENSO time scale is discussed. Numerical simulations suggest that the inter-annual IP variability is low and does not exceed 1% of the mean value, being tightly correlated with the mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific Ocean (180W-100W, 5S-5N—El Niño area). The IP maximum corresponds to the SST minimum. This result can be explained taking into account that during El Niño (positive temperature anomaly) precipitations in the equatorial part of the Pacific increase while in other tropic zones including the land areas they decrease. Comparison of simulation results with the observational data on lightning activity on the ENSO time scale is discussed. During the El Niño period in the model, the mean aerosol content in the atmosphere decrease, which is caused by the weakening of the winds over Sahara and

  13. Association of Taiwan’s Rainfall Patterns with Large-Scale Oceanic and Atmospheric Phenomena

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Chun Kuo


    Full Text Available A 50-year (1960–2009 monthly rainfall gridded dataset produced by the Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform Project was presented in this study. The gridded data (5 × 5 km displayed influence of topography on spatial variability of rainfall, and the results of the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs analysis revealed the patterns associated with the large-scale sea surface temperature variability over Pacific. The first mode (65% revealed the annual peaks of large rainfall in the southwestern mountainous area, which is associated with southwest monsoons and typhoons during summertime. The second temporal EOF mode (16% revealed the rainfall variance associated with the monsoon and its interaction with the slopes of the mountain range. This pattern is the major contributor to spatial variance of rainfall in Taiwan, as indicated by the first mode (40% of spatial variance EOF analysis. The second temporal EOF mode correlated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO. In particular, during the autumn of the La Niña years following the strong El Niño years, the time-varying amplitude was substantially greater than that of normal years. The third temporal EOF mode (7% revealed a north-south out-of-phase rainfall pattern, the slowly evolving variations of which were in phase with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Because of Taiwan’s geographic location and the effect of local terrestrial structures, climate variability related to ENSO differed markedly from other regions in East Asia.

  14. Periglacial phenomena affecting nuclear waste disposal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niini, H.


    Full Text Available Slow future changes in astronomic phenomena seem to make it likely that Finland nll suffer several cold periods during the next 100,000 years. The paper analyses the characteristics of the periglacial factors that are most likely to influence the long-term safety of high-level radioactive waste disposed of in bedrock. These factors and their influences have been divided into two categories, natural and human. It is concluded that the basically natural phenomena are theoretically better understood than the complicated phenomena caused by man. It is therefore important in future research into periglacial phenomena, as well as of the disposal problem, to emphasize not only the proper applications of the results of natural sciences, but especially the effects and control of mankind's own present and future activities.

  15. Reconstructing El Niño Southern Oscillation using data from ships' logbooks, 1815-1854. Part II: Comparisons with existing ENSO reconstructions and implications for reconstructing ENSO diversity (United States)

    Barrett, Hannah G.; Jones, Julie M.; Bigg, Grant R.


    A systematic comparison of El Niño Southern Oscillation reconstructions during the early to mid-nineteenth century is presented using a range of proxy and documentary sources. Reconstructions of the boreal winter Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) using data from ships' logbooks presented in a companion paper are evaluated and compared to previous ENSO reconstructions. Comparisons between ENSO reconstructions and the instrumental SOI during a period of overlap (1876-1977) are made. These same proxy and documentary reconstructions are then compared to the logbook-based reconstructions, over 1815-1854. The logbook-based reconstructions compare best with a recent multi-proxy reconstruction that used signals taken from different teleconnection regions, and they have an improved agreement with multi-proxy records compared to a previous attempt to reconstruct the SOI from ships' logbook data. The logbook-based and the multi-proxy reconstructions are found to capture El Niño events better than La Niña events, and East Pacific El Niño events better than Central Pacific El Niño events, thus suggesting a degree of bias in the historical reconstructions. These findings have important implications for future ENSO reconstructions, with a need for an increased understanding of the effects of different ENSO flavours for future reconstructions.

  16. Transport phenomena an introduction to advanced topics

    CERN Document Server

    Glasgow, Larry A


    Enables readers to apply transport phenomena principles to solve advanced problems in all areas of engineering and science This book helps readers elevate their understanding of, and their ability to apply, transport phenomena by introducing a broad range of advanced topics as well as analytical and numerical solution techniques. Readers gain the ability to solve complex problems generally not addressed in undergraduate-level courses, including nonlinear, multidimensional transport, and transient molecular and convective transport scenarios. Avoiding rote memorization, the author em

  17. Evidence on Dropout Phenomena at Universities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Malene Rode; Sommersel, Hanna Bjørnøy; Larsen, Michael Søgaard

    This publication is an excerpt from the full technical report ‘Dropout Phenomena at Universities: What is Dropout? Why does Dropout Occur? What Can be Done by the Universities to Prevent or Reduce it? A systematic review’, which was completed in April 2013. The purpose of this excerpt is to present...... the knowledge we have on dropout phenomena at European universities in a short, precise and comprehensible form to allow readers to orient themselves on the subject in a more readable manner....

  18. Dictionary of astronomy, space, and atmospheric phenomena

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tver, D.F.; Motz, L.; Hartmann, W.K.


    This concise and up-to-date compendium features descriptions and definitions of terms, techniques and equipment relating to celestial phenomena. It explains the latest concepts in space exploration, planetary research, stellar astronomy, and meteorological science. The authors explore the general configurations of star groups, galaxy types, stars, and other small bodies in the solar system, including such important facts as magnitude of each and distance from Earth. They describe the brightest stars one by one. Vital data provided by the Viking, Mariner, and Pioneer space probes, the Voyager flights past Jupiter and its moons, and the Apollo landings are clearly presented and explained. New concepts in stellar astronomy such as quasars, neutron stars (pulsars), and black holes are precisely defined. Also included are discussions of meteor showers and the important rock types found on each planet; definitions of meteorological terms, ad astronomical equipment including telescopes, eyepieces and their accessories, the Golay cell, canopus sensor, filar micrometer, and more. Charts aid in identifying and locating stars and planets, and helpful reference tables list the location of the major celestial bodies - asteroids, constellations, the nearest stars, the brightest stars, interesting double and variable stars and cluters. Also included is the Meisser catalog of the coordinates and magnitudes for more than 100 celestial objects.

  19. Stochastic phenomena in a fiber Raman amplifier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kalashnikov, Vladimir [Aston Institute of Photonic Technologies, Aston University, Birmingham (United Kingdom); Institute of Photonics, Vienna University of Technology (Austria); Sergeyev, Sergey V. [Aston Institute of Photonic Technologies, Aston University, Birmingham (United Kingdom); Ania-Castanon, Juan Diego [Instituto de Optica CSIC, Madrid (Spain); Jacobsen, Gunnar [Acreo, Kista (Sweden); Popov, Sergei [Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Stockholm (Sweden)


    The interplay of such cornerstones of modern nonlinear fiber optics as a nonlinearity, stochasticity and polarization leads to variety of the noise induced instabilities including polarization attraction and escape phenomena harnessing of which is a key to unlocking the fiber optic systems specifications required in high resolution spectroscopy, metrology, biomedicine and telecommunications. Here, by using direct stochastic modeling, the mapping of interplay of the Raman scattering-based nonlinearity, the random birefringence of a fiber, and the pump-to-signal intensity noise transfer has been done in terms of the fiber Raman amplifier parameters, namely polarization mode dispersion, the relative intensity noise of the pump laser, fiber length, and the signal power. The obtained results reveal conditions for emergence of the random birefringence-induced resonance-like enhancement of the gain fluctuations (stochastic anti-resonance) accompanied by pulse broadening and rare events in the form of low power output signals having probability heavily deviated from the Gaussian distribution. (copyright 2016 by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

  20. Reconstruction of Pyrodinium blooms in the tropical East Pacific (Mexico): are they related to ENSO? (United States)

    Sanchez-Cabeza, Joan-Albert; Ruiz-Fernández, Ana Carolina; de Vernal, Anne; Machain-Castillo, Maria Luisa


    Some microplanktonic species, mostly dinoflagellates, causing Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs), produce toxins which may affect the environment and human health, thus causing important economic losses. The dinoflagellate Pyrodinium bahamense var. compressum is one of the main species causing harmful algal blooms along the tropical Pacific. Although it was first reported along the Mexican coast in the 1970s, here we report that a sedimentary record of Pyrodinium cysts from the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the tropical East Pacific (Mexico), which spans from the 1860s, showed the continuous occurrence of Pyrodinium cysts and that their presence has been declining in the last few decades. Although Pyrodinium HABs have been attributed to El Niño events in the tropical Indo-West Pacific, the record shows that most blooms in the tropical East Pacific appear in periods of low sea surface temperature and higher rainfall, as can be observed during rapid shifts from cold (La Niña) to warm (El Niño) conditions in that region. This mechanism offers new ways to better predict and facilitate early detection of Pyrodinium HABs worldwide.

  1. Variability of rainfall in Suriname and the relation with ENSO-SST and TA-SST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. J. Nurmohamed


    Full Text Available Spatial correlations in the annual rainfall anomalies are analyzed using principle component analyses (PCA. Cross correlation analysis and composites are used to measure the influence of sea surface temperatures anomalies (SSTAs in the tropical Atlantic and tropical Pacific Ocean with the seasonal rainfall in Suriname. The spatial and time variability in rainfall is mainly determined by the meridional movement of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ. Rainfall anomalies tend to occur fairly uniformly over the whole country. In December-January (short wet season, there is a lagged correlation with the SSTAs in the Pacific region (clag3Nino1+2=-0.63. The strongest correlation between the March-May rainfall (beginning long wet season and the Pacific SSTAs is found with a correlation coefficient of ckNino1+2=0.59 at lag 1 month. The June-August rainfall (end part of long wet season shows the highest correlation with SSTAs in the TSA region and is about c=-0.52 for lag 0. In the September-November long dry season there is also a lagged correlation with the TSA SSTAs of about clag3=0.66. The different correlations and predictors can be used for seasonal rainfall predictions.

  2. On the unstable ENSO-Western North Pacific Monsoon relation during the 20th Century (United States)

    Vega Martín, Inmaculada; Gallego Puyol, David; Ribera Rodriguez, Pedro; Gómez Delgado, Francisco de Paula; Peña-Ortiz, Cristina


    The concept of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon (WNPSM) appeared for the first time in 1987. Unlike the Indian Summer Monsoon and the East Asian summer monsoon, the WNPSM is an oceanic monsoon driven essentially by the meridional gradient of sea surface temperature. Its circulation is characterized by a northwest-southeast oriented monsoon trough with intense precipitation and low-level southwesterlies and upper-tropospheric easterlies in the region [100°-130° E, 5°-15°N]. Although this monsoon is mainly oceanic, it modulates the precipitation of densely populated areas such as the Philippines. To date, the WNPSM has been quantified by the so-called Western North Pacific Monsoon Index (WNPMI), an index based on wind anomalies over large domains of the Western Pacific. The requirement of continuous observed wind over remote oceanic areas to compute the WNPMI has limited its availability to the 1949-2014 period. In this work we have extended the index by almost 100 years by using historical observations of wind direction taken aboard ships. Our Western North Pacific Directional Index (WNPDI), is defined as the sum of the persistence of the low-level westerly winds in [5°-15°N, 100°-130°E] and easterly winds in [20°-30°N, 110°-140°E]. The new WNPDI index is highly correlated to the existent WNPMI for the concurrent period (1948-2014). (r=+0.88, pCompetitividad through the project INCITE (CGL2013-44530-P, BES-2014-069733).

  3. Polarization phenomena in quantum chromodynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brodsky, S.J. [Stanford Univ., CA (United States)


    The author discusses a number of interrelated hadronic spin effects which test fundamental features of perturbative and nonperturbative QCD. For example, the anomalous magnetic moment of the proton and the axial coupling g{sub A} on the nucleon are shown to be related to each other for fixed proton radius, independent of the form of the underlying three-quark relativistic quark wavefunction. The renormalization scale and scheme ambiguities for the radiative corrections to the Bjorken sum rule for the polarized structure functions can be eliminated by using commensurate scale relations with other observables. Other examples include (a) new constraints on the shape and normalization of the polarized quark and gluon structure functions of the proton at large and small x{sub bj}; (b) consequences of the principle of hadron retention in high x{sub F} inclusive reactions; (c) applications of hadron helicity conservation to high momentum transfer exclusive reactions; and (d) the dependence of nuclear structure functions and shadowing on virtual photon polarization. The author also discusses the implications of a number of measurements which are in striking conflict with leading-twist perturbative QCD predictions, such as the extraordinarily large spin correlation A{sub NN} observed in large angle proton-proton scattering, the anomalously large {rho}{pi} branching ratio of the J/{psi}, and the rapidly changing polarization dependence of both J/{psi} and continuum lepton pair hadroproduction observed at large x{sub F}. The azimuthal angular dependence of the Drell-Yan process is shown to be highly sensitive to the projectile distribution amplitude, the fundamental valence light-cone wavefunction of the hadron.

  4. Possible influence of the ENSO phenomenon on the pathoecology of diphyllobothriasis and anisakiasis in ancient Chinchorro populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernardo T Arriaza


    Full Text Available Current clinical data show a clear relationship between the zoonosis rates of Diphyllobothrium pacificum and Anisakis caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO phenomenon along the Chilean coast. These parasites are endemic to the region and have a specific habitat distribution. D. pacificum prefers the warmer waters in the northern coast, while Anisakis prefers the colder waters of Southern Chile. The ENSO phenomenon causes a drastic inversion in the seawater temperatures in this region, modifying both the cool nutrient-rich seawater and the local ecology. This causes a latitudinal shift in marine parasite distribution and prevalence, as well as drastic environmental changes. The abundance of human mummies and archaeological coastal sites in the Atacama Desert provides an excellent model to test the ENSO impact on antiquity. We review the clinical and archaeological literature debating to what extent these parasites affected the health of the Chinchorros, the earliest settlers of this region. We hypothesise the Chinchorro and their descendants were affected by this natural and cyclical ENSO phenomenon and should therefore present fluctuating rates of D. pacificum and Anisakis infestations.

  5. Relationships between the Antarctic oscillation, the Madden-Julian oscillation, and ENSO, and consequences for rainfall analysis

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Pohl, B


    Full Text Available not appear to project coherently on the well-known AAO patterns and are never of an annular nature. At the interannual time scale, a strong teleconnection with ENSO is found during the peak of the austral summer season, corroborating previous studies. El Niño...

  6. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) enhances CO2 exchange rates in freshwater marsh ecosystems in the Florida Everglades (United States)

    Sparkle L. Malone; Christina L. Staudhammer; Steven F. Oberbauer; Paulo Olivas; Michael G. Ryan; Jessica L. Schedlbauer; Henry W. Loescher; Gregory Starr


    This research examines the relationships between El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), water level, precipitation patterns and carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange rates in the freshwater wetland ecosystems of the Florida Everglades. Data was obtained over a 5-year study period (2009–2013) from two freshwater marsh sites located in Everglades National Park that differ...

  7. The Response of Lower Atmospheric Ozone to ENSO in Aura Measurements and a Chemistry-Climate Simulation (United States)

    Oman, L. D.; Douglass, A. R.; Ziemke, J. R.; Rodriquez, J. M.; Waugh, D. W.; Nielsen, J. E.


    The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of tropical variability on interannual time scales. ENSO appears to extend its influence into the chemical composition of the tropical troposphere. Recent work has revealed an ENSO-induced wave-1 anomaly in observed tropical tropospheric column ozone. This results in a dipole over the western and eastern tropical Pacific, whereby differencing the two regions produces an ozone anomaly with an extremely high correlation to the Nino 3.4 Index. We have successfully reproduced this feature using the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) general circulation model coupled to a comprehensive stratospheric and tropospheric chemical mechanism forced with observed sea surface temperatures over the past 25 years. An examination of the modeled ozone field reveals the vertical contributions of tropospheric ozone to the column over the western and eastern Pacific region. We will show composition sensitivity in observations from NASA s Aura satellite Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Tropospheric Emissions Spectrometer (TES) and a simulation to provide insight into the vertical structure of these ENSO-induced ozone changes. The ozone changes due to the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the extra-polar upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in MLS measurements will also be discussed.

  8. A Statistical Model of Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Western North Pacific with ENSO-Dependent Cyclogenesis (United States)

    Yonekura, Emmi; Hall, Timothy M.


    A new statistical model for western North Pacific Ocean tropical cyclone genesis and tracks is developed and applied to estimate regionally resolved tropical cyclone landfall rates along the coasts of the Asian mainland, Japan, and the Philippines. The model is constructed on International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) 1945-2007 historical data for the western North Pacific. The model is evaluated in several ways, including comparing the stochastic spread in simulated landfall rates with historic landfall rates. Although certain biases have been detected, overall the model performs well on the diagnostic tests, for example, reproducing well the geographic distribution of landfall rates. Western North Pacific cyclogenesis is influenced by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This dependence is incorporated in the model s genesis component to project the ENSO-genesis dependence onto landfall rates. There is a pronounced shift southeastward in cyclogenesis and a small but significant reduction in basinwide annual counts with increasing ENSO index value. On almost all regions of coast, landfall rates are significantly higher in a negative ENSO state (La Nina).

  9. Sea surface salinity variability during the Indian Ocean Dipole and ENSO events in the tropical Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Grunseich, G.; Subrahmanyam, B.; Murty, V.S.N.; Giese, B.S.

    extent, during negative IOD events. A dipole mode index for salinity (DMIS) based on SSS data and a new index based on the average of salinity in a region off the coast of Sumatra are introduced to monitor SSS variability during IOD and ENSO events...

  10. Testing Four Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation Method Using an Improved Intermediate Coupled Model for ENSO Analysis and Prediction (United States)

    Gao, C.; Zhang, R. H.


    A four dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation method is implemented in an improved intermediate coupled model (ICM) of the tropical Pacific. The ICM has ten baroclinic modes in the vertical, with horizonatally varying stratification taken into account; two empirical submodels are constructed from historical data, one for the subsurface entrainment temperature in the surface mixed layer (Te) in terms of sea level (SL) anomalies and another for the wind stress (τ) in terms of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. A twin experiment is established to evaluate the impact of the 4D-Var data assimilation algorithm on the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) analysis and prediction. The model error is assumed to arise only from the parameter uncertainty. The "observation" of sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly is sampled from the "truth" model that takes default parameter values and added by a Gaussian noise, is directly assimilated into the assimilation model with its parameters being set erroneously. Results show that the 4D-Var effectively reduces the error of ENSO analysis and therefore improves the prediction skill of ENSO events at 12-month lead time compared with the non-assimilation case. These provide a promising way for the ICM in its better real-time ENSO prediction.

  11. Impacts of forest to urban land conversion and ENSO phase on water quality of a public water supply reservoir (United States)

    We used coupled watershed and reservoir models to evaluate the impacts of deforestation and ENSO phase on drinking water quality. Source water total organic carbon (TOC) is especially important due to the potential for production of carcinogenic disinfection byproducts (DBPs). The Environmental Flui...

  12. Maxwell Prize Talk: Scaling Laws for the Dynamical Plasma Phenomena (United States)

    Ryutov, Livermore, Ca 94550, Usa, D. D.


    The scaling and similarity technique is a powerful tool for developing and testing reduced models of complex phenomena, including plasma phenomena. The technique has been successfully used in identifying appropriate simplified models of transport in quasistationary plasmas. In this talk, the similarity and scaling arguments will be applied to highly dynamical systems, in which temporal evolution of the plasma leads to a significant change of plasma dimensions, shapes, densities, and other parameters with respect to initial state. The scaling and similarity techniques for dynamical plasma systems will be presented as a set of case studies of problems from various domains of the plasma physics, beginning with collisonless plasmas, through intermediate collisionalities, to highly collisional plasmas describable by the single-fluid MHD. Basic concepts of the similarity theory will be introduced along the way. Among the results discussed are: self-similarity of Langmuir turbulence driven by a hot electron cloud expanding into a cold background plasma; generation of particle beams in disrupting pinches; interference between collisionless and collisional phenomena in the shock physics; similarity for liner-imploded plasmas; MHD similarities with an emphasis on the effect of small-scale (turbulent) structures on global dynamics. Relations between astrophysical phenomena and scaled laboratory experiments will be discussed.

  13. A core eating network and its modulations underlie diverse eating phenomena

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Jing|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/411887548; Papies, Esther K.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304832766; Barsalou, Lawrence W.


    We propose that a core eating network and its modulations account for much of what is currently known about the neural activity underlying a wide range of eating phenomena in humans (excluding homeostasis and related phenomena). The core eating network is closely adapted from a network that Kaye,

  14. QBO-ENSO Connections and Influence on the Tropical Cold Point Tropopause (United States)

    Geller, M. A.; Yuan, W.


    We have used both high vertical-resolution and conventional radiosonde data to investigate two aspects of the quasi-biennial oscillation in the equatorial lower stratosphere. Taguchi (2010) used monthly mean wind information from three radiosonde stations in the Western Pacific region to show that QBO periods are generally shorter during El Nino than during La Nina conditions and that QBO amplitudes are generally greater during La Nina conditions. We show that these results are valid for all longitudes in equatorial regions. We also show that QBO modulations of the cold-point-tropopause, on the average, are greater during La Nina conditions, although this result is variable for different stations at different latitudes and longitudes. We believe that this variability is likely due to local influences of convection significantly affecting the cold-point tropopause. Our strategy for investigating both of these aspects of ENSO influences on the QBO was to show that spline-fitting of conventional radiosonde observations gave similar results for both ENSO and QBO variations of winds and temperatures to those derived using high vertical-resolution radiosonde data over a nine year period (as suggested by the results of Bell and Geller, 2008), but that this was too short a period to properly separate ENSO from QBO effects. Given that these similar results were obtained using spline-fits to conventional radiosonde data to those obtained using high vertical-resolution radiosonde data, we then analyzed much longer time series of conventional radiosonde data for several stations, where such data were available over several decades. References Bell, S. W., and M. A. Geller (2008), Tropopause inversion layer: Seasonal and latitudinal variations and representation in standard radiosonde data and global models, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D05109, doi:10.1029/2007JD009022. Taguchi, M. (2010), Observed connection of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation with El Ni

  15. The Influence of Arctic Oscillation and ENSO on Snow Cover Days on Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (United States)

    Xiao, Tiangui; Wang, Chao; Jia, Lha; Du, Jun; Chen, Qianwen


    Based on Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau Snow data, index of NINO sea temperature anomaly, and AO index. The influence from Arctic Oscillation and ENSO to days of snow cover in plateau was studied, and the main conclusions are as follows: 1. Both AO index and NINO index are positively correlated with days of snow cover in plateau, and the correlation coefficients are 0.59, 0.41 respectively (both passed the significant test at0.01 level). There is a positively correlation between NINO index and western plateau, and passed the significant test. But to the eastern plateau, it is uncorrelated. 2. The average of snow cover days in whole plateau is 8.79 d, during 1964-2013. The maximum value of snow cover days is 41.38 d in Nielamu, and the minimum lesser than 1 d in Haiyan. When the AO at positive anomaly, the snow cover days is higher, and the maximum value up to 48.8d at Jiani. At in negative anomaly of AO, the snow cover day is lower. There is a positively correlation between AO and snow cover days. 3. When the AO at positive anomaly with El Nino, the maximum value of snow cover days up to 54.25 d. Influence of AO and El Nino, the snow cover days is higher. When the AO at positive anomaly with La Nina, the maximum value of snow cover days is 46.3 d, and it is lower than the maximum value which is under AO at positive anomaly period. When the AO at negative anomaly whit El Nino, the value range of snow cover days is 0.007-42.86 d. Due to the Influence of El Nino, the value snow cover days is higher, but with smaller region. When the AO at negative anomaly whit La Nina, the snow cover days is lower in whole plateau. the snow cover days was directly affected by AO and ENSO, and the first is more effective than the latter. Key words: AO; ENSO; Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau; snow cover days Acknowledgements This study was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China Fund Project (91337215, 41575066), National Key Basic Research Program (2013CB733206), Special Fund for

  16. Linking ENSO and heavy rainfall events over coastal British Columbia through a weather pattern classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Brigode


    Full Text Available Classifications of atmospheric weather patterns (WPs are widely used for the description of the climate of a given region and are employed for many applications, such as weather forecasting, downscaling of global circulation model outputs and reconstruction of past climates. WP classifications were recently used to improve the statistical characterisation of heavy rainfall. In this context, bottom-up approaches, combining spatial distribution of heavy rainfall observations and geopotential height fields have been used to define WP classifications relevant for heavy rainfall statistical analysis. The definition of WPs at the synoptic scale creates an interesting variable which could be used as a link between the global scale of climate signals and the local scale of precipitation station measurements. We introduce here a new WP classification centred on the British Columbia (BC coastal region (Canada and based on a bottom-up approach. Five contrasted WPs composed this classification, four rainy WPs and one non-rainy WP, the anticyclonic pattern. The four rainy WPs are mainly observed in the winter months (October to March, which is the period of heavy precipitation events in coastal BC and is thus consistent with the local climatology. The combination of this WP classification with the seasonal description of rainfall is shown to be useful for splitting observed precipitation series into more homogeneous sub-samples (i.e. sub-samples constituted by days having similar atmospheric circulation patterns and thus identifying, for each station, the synoptic situations that generate the highest hazard in terms of heavy rainfall events. El Niño-Southern Oscillations (ENSO significantly influence the frequency of occurrence of two coastal BC WPs. Within each WP, ENSO seem to influence only the frequency of rainy events and not the magnitudes of heavy rainfall events. Consequently, heavy rainfall estimations do not show significant evolution of heavy

  17. The Defining Characteristics of ENSO Extremes and the Strong 2015/2016 El Niño (United States)

    Santoso, Agus; Mcphaden, Michael J.; Cai, Wenju


    The year 2015 was special for climate scientists, particularly for the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) research community, as a major El Niño finally materialized after a long pause since the 1997/1998 extreme El Niño. It was scientifically exciting since, due to the short observational record, our knowledge of an extreme El Niño has been based only on the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 events. The 2015/2016 El Niño was marked by many environmental disasters that are consistent with what is expected for an extreme El Niño. Considering the dramatic impacts of extreme El Niño, and the risk of a potential increase in frequency of ENSO extremes under greenhouse warming, it is timely to evaluate how the recent event fits into our understanding of ENSO extremes. Here we provide a review of ENSO, its nature and dynamics, and through analysis of various observed key variables, we outline the processes that characterize its extremes. The 2015/2016 El Niño brings a useful perspective into the state of understanding of these events and highlights areas for future research. While the 2015/2016 El Niño is characteristically distinct from the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 events, it still can be considered as the first extreme El Niño of the 21st century. Its extremity can be attributed in part to unusually warm condition in 2014 and to long-term background warming. In effect, this study provides a list of physically meaningful indices that are straightforward to compute for identifying and tracking extreme ENSO events in observations and climate models.

  18. Reconstructing thermocline hydrography using planktonic foraminiferal Mg/Ca: Implications for paleo-ENSO during the Holocene (United States)

    Parker, A. O.; Marchitto, T. M.


    Interannual variations in thermocline hydrography of the eastern tropical Pacific are today dominated by the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Mixed layer thickness, thermocline depth, and sea surface temperatures all decrease under La Niña conditions. Changes in these parameters are responsible for oceanographic and climate anomalies that have far reaching effects. Understanding how water column stratification of the eastern tropical Pacific has changed over time can lend insight into the past dynamics of ENSO, yet this is a poorly constrained area of study. We present a record of upper water column stratification history during the Holocene, using core PC14 from the Soledad Basin, Baja California (25.2N, 112.7W). We use Mg/Ca differences between G. bulloides, N. dutertrei and N. pachyderma (d.) to reconstruct changes in the vertical stratification. G. bulloides reflects the upper most surface conditions during peak spring upwelling. N. dutertrei prefers an intermediate depth following a limited temperature range near the bottom of the mixed layer, and N. pachyderma (d.) favors conditions near the bottom of the thermocline consistent with previous studies that it follows the Deep Chlorophyll Maximum (DCM). We apply this multi-species approach to test the hypothesis, based on G. bulloides Mg/Ca, that the early to middle Holocene was (1) more La Niña-like than today, and (2) characterized by millennial-scale oscillations in ENSO mean state. Understanding the behavior of ENSO over long timescales can provide a path to evaluating the potential of orbital and solar forcing of ENSO dynamics.

  19. Spooky Phenomena in Two-Photon Processes (United States)

    Li, Ming-Chiang


    A spooky phenomenon in two-photon coherent atomic absorption was discussed in 1980 [M. C. Li, Phys. Rev. A 22 (1980) 1323]. The absorption was initiated by two different laser sources. Classically, it is impossible for atoms to transit coherently in the absorption process, but quantum mechanically it is. This is one of the spooky phenomena in quantum mechanic. Around1990, there were very active experimental pursuits on a spooky phenomenon of two photons emitted from crystal parametric down conversion. The two-photon coherent atomic absorption process contained all basic ingredients as that in crystal parametric down conversion. However, the former arises from two different laser sources. The atom entangles two photons together and becomes a correlatior. The latter arises from a single laser source and two photons are entangled with each other at emission. These two spooky phenomena have been considered as disjointed. The present talk will review two spooky phenomena, and point out their similarities. The investigation on quantum spooky phenomena has led to quantum computing and quantum encryption. It is a hope that the present will stimulate the interest on bring in these two disjointed phenomena together and provide clues in advancing quantum computing and quantum encryption.

  20. Analytical probability density function for the statistics of the ENSO phenomenon: Asymmetry and power law tail (United States)

    Bianucci, M.


    This letter has two main goals. The first one is to give a physically reasonable explanation for the use of stochastic models for mimicking the apparent random features of the El Ninõ-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The second one is to obtain, from the theory, an analytical expression for the equilibrium density function of the anomaly sea surface temperature, an expression that fits the data from observations well, reproducing the asymmetry and the power law tail of the histograms of the NIÑO3 index. We succeed in these tasks exploiting some recent theoretical results of the author in the field of the dynamical origin of the stochastic processes. More precisely, we apply this approach to the celebrated recharge oscillator model (ROM), weakly interacting by a multiplicative term, with a general deterministic complex forcing (Madden-Julian Oscillations, westerly wind burst, etc.), and we obtain a Fokker-Planck equation that describes the statistical behavior of the ROM.

  1. The influence of ENSO, PDO and PNA on secular rainfall variations in Hawai`i (United States)

    Frazier, Abby G.; Elison Timm, Oliver; Giambelluca, Thomas W.; Diaz, Henry F.


    Over the last century, significant declines in rainfall across the state of Hawai`i have been observed, and it is unknown whether these declines are due to natural variations in climate, or manifestations of human-induced climate change. Here, a statistical analysis of the observed rainfall variability was applied as first step towards better understanding causes for these long-term trends. Gridded seasonal rainfall from 1920 to 2012 is used to perform an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The leading EOF components are correlated with three indices of natural climate variations (El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Pacific North American (PNA)), and multiple linear regression (MLR) is used to model the leading components with climate indices. PNA is the dominant mode of wet season (November-April) variability, while ENSO is most significant in the dry season (May-October). To assess whether there is an anthropogenic influence on rainfall, two methods are used: a linear trend term is included in the MLR, and pattern correlation coefficients (PCC) are calculated between recent rainfall trends and future changes in rainfall projected by downscaling methods. PCC results indicate that recent observed rainfall trends in the wet season are positively correlated with future expected changes in rainfall, while dry season PCC results do not show a clear pattern. The MLR results, however, show that the trend term adds significantly to model skill only in the dry season. Overall, MLR and PCC results give weak and inconclusive evidence for detection of anthropogenic signals in the observed rainfall trends.

  2. How Well Do Global Climate Models Simulate the Variability of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Associated with ENSO? (United States)

    Wang, Hui; Long, Lindsey; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu; Schemm, Jae-Kyung E.; Zhao, Ming; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; LaRow, Timorhy E.; Lim, Young-Kwon; Schubert, Siegfried D.; hide


    The variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in model simulations is assessed and compared with observations. The model experiments are 28-yr simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature from 1982 to 2009. The simulations were coordinated by the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group and conducted with five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members. The model performance is evaluated based on both individual model ensemble means and multi-model ensemble mean. The latter has the highest anomaly correlation (0.86) for the interannual variability of TCs. Previous observational studies show a strong association between ENSO and Atlantic TC activity, as well as distinctions in the TC activities during eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Nino events. The analysis of track density and TC origin indicates that each model has different mean biases. Overall, the GCMs simulate the variability of Atlantic TCs well with weaker activity during EP El Nino and stronger activity during La Nina. For CP El Nino, there is a slight increase in the number of TCs as compared with EP El Nino. However, the spatial distribution of track density and TC origin is less consistent among the models. Particularly, there is no indication of increasing TC activity over the U.S. southeast coastal region as in observations. The difference between the models and observations is likely due to the bias of vertical wind shear in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Nino, as well as the model bias in the mean circulation.

  3. A study of response of thermocline in the South China Sea to ENSO events (United States)

    Peng, Hanbang; Pan, Aijun; Zheng, Quan'an; Hu, Jianyu


    This paper investigates the response of the thermocline depth (TD) in the South China Sea (SCS) to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events using 51-year (from 1960 to 2010) monthly seawater temperature and surface wind stress data acquired from the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA), together with heat flux data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), precipitation data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and evaporation data from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI). It is indicated that the response of the SCS TD to the El Niño or La Niña events is in opposite phase. On one hand, the spatial-averaged TDs in the SCS (deeper than 200 m) appear as negative and positive anomalies during the mature phase of the El Niño and La Niña events, respectively. On the other hand, from June of the El Niño year to the subsequent April, the spatial patterns of TD in the north and south of 12°N appear as negative and positive anomalies, respectively, but present positive and negative anomalies for the La Niña case. However, positive and negative TD anomalies occur almost in the entire SCS in May of the subsequent year of the El Niño and La Niña events, respectively. It is suggested that the response of the TD in the SCS to the ENSO events is mainly caused by the sea surface buoyancy flux and the wind stress curl.

  4. Theories of dynamical phenomena in sunspots (United States)

    Thomas, J. H.

    Attempts that have been made to understand and explain observed dynamical phenomena in sunspots within the framework of magnetohydrodynamic theory are surveyed. The qualitative aspects of the theory and physical arguments are emphasized, with mathematical details generally avoided. The dynamical phenomena in sunspots are divided into two categories: aperiodic (quasi-steady) and oscillatory. For each phenomenon discussed, the salient observational features that any theory should explain are summarized. The two contending theoretical models that can account for the fine structure of the Evershed motion, namely the convective roll model and the siphon flow model, are described. With regard to oscillatory phenomena, attention is given to overstability and oscillatory convection, umbral oscillations and flashes. penumbral waves, five-minute oscillations in sunspots, and the wave cooling of sunspots.

  5. Nonlinear phenomena in contemporary vocal music. (United States)

    Neubauer, Jürgen; Edgerton, Michael; Herzel, Hanspeter


    Complex and multiphonic voice signals of vocal improvisors are analyzed within the framework of nonlinear dynamics. Evidence is given that nonlinear phenomena are extensively used by performers associated with contemporary music. Narrow-band spectrograms of complex vocalizations are used to visualize the appearance of nonlinear phenomena (spectral bifurcation diagrams). Possible production mechanisms are discussed in connection with previous research, personal performance and pedagogical experience. Examples for period doubling, biphonation and irregular aperiodic phonation in vocal sonorities of contemporary vocal improvisors are given, and glottal whistle production encompassed with biphonation and triphonation is shown. Furthermore, coincidences of harmonics-formant matching associated with abrupt transitions to subharmonics and biphonation in the vocal output are provided. This also shows the recurrent use of nonlinear phenomena by performers. It is argued that mechanisms such as source-tract coupling or vocal fold desynchronization due to asymmetry are used in a reproducible way for musical tasks.

  6. Current-driven phenomena in nanoelectronics

    CERN Document Server

    Seideman, Tamar


    Consisting of ten chapters written by some of the world's leaders in the field, this book combines experimental, theoretical and numerical studies of current-driven phenomena in the nanoscale. The topics covered range from single-molecule, site-specific nanochemistry induced by a scanning tunneling microscope, through inelastic tunneling spectroscopy and current-induced heating, to current-triggered molecular machines. The various chapters focus on experimental and numerical method development, the description of specific systems, and new ideas and novel phenomena.

  7. Dissipative phenomena in condensed matter some applications

    CERN Document Server

    Dattagupta, Sushanta


    From the field of nonequilibrium statistical physics, this graduate- and research-level volume treats the modeling and characterization of dissipative phenomena. A variety of examples from diverse disciplines like condensed matter physics, materials science, metallurgy, chemical physics etc. are discussed. Dattagupta employs the broad framework of stochastic processes and master equation techniques to obtain models for a wide range of experimentally relevant phenomena such as classical and quantum Brownian motion, spin dynamics, kinetics of phase ordering, relaxation in glasses, dissipative tunneling. It provides a pedagogical exposition of current research material and will be useful to experimentalists, computational physicists and theorists.

  8. Random walks on three-strand braids and on related hyperbolic groups 05.40.-a Fluctuation phenomena, random processes, noise, and Brownian motion; 02.50.-r Probability theory, stochastic processes, and statistics; 02.40.Ky Riemannian geometries;

    CERN Document Server

    Nechaev, S


    We investigate the statistical properties of random walks on the simplest nontrivial braid group B sub 3 , and on related hyperbolic groups. We provide a method using Cayley graphs of groups allowing us to compute explicitly the probability distribution of the basic statistical characteristics of random trajectories - the drift and the return probability. The action of the groups under consideration in the hyperbolic plane is investigated, and the distribution of a geometric invariant - the hyperbolic distance - is analysed. It is shown that a random walk on B sub 3 can be viewed as a 'magnetic random walk' on the group PSL(2, Z).

  9. Random walks on three-strand braids and on related hyperbolic groups[05.40.-a Fluctuation phenomena, random processes, noise, and Brownian motion; 02.50.-r Probability theory, stochastic processes, and statistics; 02.40.Ky Riemannian geometries;

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nechaev, Sergei [Laboratoire de Physique Theorique et Modeles Statistiques, Universite Paris Sud, 91405 Orsay Cedex (France); Voituriez, Raphael [Laboratoire de Physique Theorique et Modeles Statistiques, Universite Paris Sud, 91405 Orsay Cedex (France)


    We investigate the statistical properties of random walks on the simplest nontrivial braid group B{sub 3}, and on related hyperbolic groups. We provide a method using Cayley graphs of groups allowing us to compute explicitly the probability distribution of the basic statistical characteristics of random trajectories - the drift and the return probability. The action of the groups under consideration in the hyperbolic plane is investigated, and the distribution of a geometric invariant - the hyperbolic distance - is analysed. It is shown that a random walk on B{sub 3} can be viewed as a 'magnetic random walk' on the group PSL(2, Z)

  10. Temporal Phenomena in the Korean Conjunctive Constructions (United States)

    Kim, Dongmin


    The goal of this study is to characterize the temporal phenomena in the Korean conjunctive constructions. These constructions consist of three components: a verbal stem, a clause medial temporal suffix, and a clause terminal suffix. This study focuses on both the temporality of the terminal connective suffixes and the grammatical meanings of the…

  11. Black hole critical phenomena without black holes

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. Studying the threshold of black hole formation via numerical evolution has led to the discovery of fascinating nonlinear phenomena. Power-law mass scaling, aspects of universality, and self-similarity have now been found for a large variety of models. However, questions remain. Here I briefly review critical ...

  12. Modelling of flow phenomena during DC casting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zuidema, J.


    Modelling of Flow Phenomena during DC Casting Jan Zuidema The production of aluminium ingots, by semi-continuous casting, is a complex process. DC Casting stands for direct chill casting. During this process liquid aluminium transforms to solid aluminium while cooling down. This is not an

  13. Simple classical approach to spin resonance phenomena

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gordon, R A


    A simple classical method of describing spin resonance in terms of the average power absorbed by a spin system is discussed. The method has several advantages over more conventional treatments, and a number of important spin resonance phenomena, not normally considered at the introductory level...

  14. Quantum phenomena in magnetic nano clusters

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)


    Quantum phenomena in magnetic nano clusters. 461. Figure 3. Schematic exchange interactions in a V15 cluster. There is no direct exchange interaction amongst the triangle spins. Interactions not shown explicitly can be generated from the C3 symmetry of the system. simplify the calculations, the strongly coupled ...

  15. Quantum phenomena in magnetic nano clusters

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    While semiconductor structures have provided paradigms of nanosystems from the stand point of electronic phenomena, the synthesis of high nuclearity transition metal complexes have provided examples of nano magnets. The range and diversity of the properties exhibited by these systems rivals its electronic counterparts ...

  16. Hyperchaotic phenomena in dynamic decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Jesper Skovhus; Mosekilde, Erik; Sterman, John David


    of this article is to show how the decision making behavior of real people in simulated corporate environments can lead to chaotic, hyperchaotic and higher-order hyperchaotic phenomena. Characteristics features of these complicated forms of behavior are analyzed with particular emphasis on an interesting form...

  17. Novel experimentally observed phenomena in soft matter

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Experiments that report a spectrum of novel phenomena exhibited by these materials, such as turbulent drag reduction, elastic turbulence, the formation of shear bands and the existence of rheological chaos, flow-induced birefringence and the unusual rheology of soft glassy materials, are reviewed. The focus then shifts to ...

  18. Interfacial phenomena and the ocular surface. (United States)

    Yañez-Soto, Bernardo; Mannis, Mark J; Schwab, Ivan R; Li, Jennifer Y; Leonard, Brian C; Abbott, Nicholas L; Murphy, Christopher J


    Ocular surface disorders, such as dry eye disease, ocular rosacea, and allergic conjunctivitis, are a heterogeneous group of diseases that require an interdisciplinary approach to establish underlying causes and develop effective therapeutic strategies. These diverse disorders share a common thread in that they involve direct changes in ocular surface chemistry as well as the rheological properties of the tear film and topographical attributes of the cellular elements of the ocular surface. Knowledge of these properties is crucial to understand the formation and stability of the preocular tear film. The study of interfacial phenomena of the ocular surface flourished during the 1970s and 1980s, but after a series of lively debates in the literature concerning distinctions between the epithelial and the glandular origin of ocular surface disorders during the 1990s, research into this important topic has declined. In the meantime, new tools and techniques for the characterization and functionalization of biological surfaces have been developed. This review summarizes the available literature regarding the physicochemical attributes of the ocular surface, analyzes the role of interfacial phenomena in the pathobiology of ocular surface disease, identifies critical knowledge gaps concerning interfacial phenomena of the ocular surface, and discusses the opportunities for the exploitation of these phenomena to develop improved therapeutics for the treatment of ocular surface disorders. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Reflection equations and surface critical phenomena


    Batchelor, M. T.


    A brief review is given of recent developments in the study of surface critical phenomena from the viewpoint of exactly solved lattice models. These developments include exact results for the polymer adsorption transition and the surface critical exponents of the eight-vertex model.

  20. Fourier Series The Mathematics of Periodic Phenomena

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 1; Issue 10. Fourier Series The Mathematics of Periodic Phenomena. S Thangavelu ... Author Affiliations. S Thangavelu1. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New Mexico, Humanities Building 419, Albuquerque, NM 87131-1141, USA ...

  1. Coherent topological phenomena in protein folding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bohr, Henrik; Brunak, Søren; Bohr, Jakob


    A theory is presented for coherent topological phenomena in protein dynamics with implications for protein folding and stability. We discuss the relationship to the writhing number used in knot diagrams of DNA. The winding state defines a long-range order along the backbone of a protein with long...

  2. Intervention in Biological Phenomena via Feedback Linearization. (United States)

    Fnaiech, Mohamed Amine; Nounou, Hazem; Nounou, Mohamed; Datta, Aniruddha


    The problems of modeling and intervention of biological phenomena have captured the interest of many researchers in the past few decades. The aim of the therapeutic intervention strategies is to move an undesirable state of a diseased network towards a more desirable one. Such an objective can be achieved by the application of drugs to act on some genes/metabolites that experience the undesirable behavior. For the purpose of design and analysis of intervention strategies, mathematical models that can capture the complex dynamics of the biological systems are needed. S-systems, which offer a good compromise between accuracy and mathematical flexibility, are a promising framework for modeling the dynamical behavior of biological phenomena. Due to the complex nonlinear dynamics of the biological phenomena represented by S-systems, nonlinear intervention schemes are needed to cope with the complexity of the nonlinear S-system models. Here, we present an intervention technique based on feedback linearization for biological phenomena modeled by S-systems. This technique is based on perfect knowledge of the S-system model. The proposed intervention technique is applied to the glycolytic-glycogenolytic pathway, and simulation results presented demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed technique.

  3. Intervention in Biological Phenomena via Feedback Linearization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Amine Fnaiech


    Full Text Available The problems of modeling and intervention of biological phenomena have captured the interest of many researchers in the past few decades. The aim of the therapeutic intervention strategies is to move an undesirable state of a diseased network towards a more desirable one. Such an objective can be achieved by the application of drugs to act on some genes/metabolites that experience the undesirable behavior. For the purpose of design and analysis of intervention strategies, mathematical models that can capture the complex dynamics of the biological systems are needed. S-systems, which offer a good compromise between accuracy and mathematical flexibility, are a promising framework for modeling the dynamical behavior of biological phenomena. Due to the complex nonlinear dynamics of the biological phenomena represented by S-systems, nonlinear intervention schemes are needed to cope with the complexity of the nonlinear S-system models. Here, we present an intervention technique based on feedback linearization for biological phenomena modeled by S-systems. This technique is based on perfect knowledge of the S-system model. The proposed intervention technique is applied to the glycolytic-glycogenolytic pathway, and simulation results presented demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed technique.

  4. Massive bleaching of coral reefs induced by the 2010 ENSO, Puerto Cabello, Venezuela

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos del Mónaco


    Full Text Available El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO has generated global coral massive bleaching. The aim of this work was to evaluate the massive bleaching of coral reefs in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela derived from ENSO 2010. We evaluated the bleaching of reefs at five localities both at three and five meter depth. The coral cover and densities of colonies were estimated. We recorded living coral cover, number and diameter of bleached and nonbleached colonies of each coral species. The colonies were classified according to the proportion of bleached area. Satellite images (Modis Scar were analyzed for chlorophyll-a concentration and temperature in August, September, October and November from 2008-2010. Precipitation, wind speed and air temperature information was evaluated in meteorological data for 2009 and 2010. A total of 58.3% of colonies, belonging to 11 hexacoral species, were affected and the greatest responses were observed in Colpophyllia natans, Montastraea annularis and Montastraea faveolata. The most affected localities were closer to the mainland and had a bleached proportion up to 62.73±36.55%, with the highest proportion of affected colonies, whereas the farthest locality showed 20.25±14.00% bleached and the smallest proportion. The salinity in situ varied between 30 and 33ppm and high levels of turbidity were observed. According to the satellite images, in 2010 the surface water temperatura reached 31ºC in August, September and October, and resulted higher than those registered in 2008 and 2009. Regionally, chlorophyll values were higher in 2010 than in 2008 and 2009. The meteorological data indicated that precipitation in November 2010 was three times higher than in November 2009. Massive coral bleaching occurred due to a three month period of high temperatures followed by one month of intense ENSO-associated precipitation. However, this latter factor was likely the trigger because of the bleaching gradient observed. Rev. Biol. Trop. 60 (2

  5. L'effet ENSO Sur les précipitations et les écoulements au XXème siècle - exemple de l'Equateur

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    Full Text Available Sur le littoral équatorien, l'analyse statistique des données pluviométriques disponibles, qui s'étalent sur une cinquantaine d'années, a permis de mettre en évidence deux résultats principaux : 1 -les effets de ENSO ne sont pas tous aussi négatifs qu'on le pense habituellement 2 - la fréquence de retour du ENSO 1982-1983 est supérieure à 1000 ans et son impact sur le milieu morpho-dynamique va au-delà des 100 000 km2. IMPACTO DE ENSO EN LAS PRECIPITACIONES Y ESCURRIMIENTOS DURANTE EL SIGLO XX - EL CASO DEL ECUADOR. En la región litoral del Ecuador, un análisis estadístico de las series pluviométricas disponibles, alrededor de cincuenta años, acarrea dos resultados principales: 1 - los efectos de ENSO no son todos tan negativos como se piensa habitualmente 2 - el período de retorno del ENSO 1982-1983 es mayor de los mil años y su impacto sobre el medio geomorfodinámico abarca más de 100 000 km2. ENSO IMPACT ON RAINFALL AND RUNOFF IN XXth CENTURY - CASE OF ECUADOR. On the Pacific coastal region of Ecuador, a statistical analysis of the largest available pluviometric records, about fifty years, yields two main results: 1 - ENSO effects are not so negative as one usually comments 2 - the return period of ENSO 1982-1983 occurrence is over one thousand years and the geomorphodynamic impact acts upon 100 000 km2.

  6. Abstinence phenomena of chronic cannabis-addicts prospectively monitored during controlled inpatient detoxification (Part II): Psychiatric complaints and their relation to delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol and its metabolites in serum. (United States)

    Bonnet, Udo; Borda, Thorsten; Scherbaum, Norbert; Specka, Michael


    To investigate the impact of inpatient detoxification treatment on psychiatric symptoms of chronic cannabis addicts and to analyze the influence of serum cannabinoid levels on the severity of these symptoms. Thirty five treatment-seeking, not active co-morbid chronic cannabis dependents (ICD-10) were studied on admission and on abstinence days 8 and 16, using several observational and self-report scales, such as Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAMD), Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale (HAMA), Young Mania Rating Scale (YMRS) and Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS), and the Symptom Checklist-90-Revised (SCL-90-R). Simultaneously obtained serum was analyzed with regard to levels of delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) and its main metabolites 11-hydroxy-delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC-OH) and 11-nor-delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol-9-carboxylic acid (THC-COOH). At admission, nearly 90% of the patients were not, or only mildly, affected by depression, anxiety or manic symptoms. In contrast, patients' self-description indicated a strong psychiatric burden in approximately 60% of the cases. All patients improved significantly within 16 days of the treatment. Effect sizes ranged from 0.7 to 1.4. (Cohen's d) for the respective scales. Serum THC-levels were positively associated with impairment of cognition in HAMA and motor retardation in BPRS. All other test results were not significantly related to the serum levels of the measured cannabinoids. Effects of the cannabis withdrawal syndrome and executive dysfunctions might explain the discrepancy between the observer ratings and self-reported psychiatric burden. Inpatient cannabis detoxification treatment significantly improved psychiatric symptoms. Serum THC-levels were not associated with affective symptoms and anxiety but predicted cognitive impairment and motor retardation. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  7. Assessment of the APCC coupled MME suite in predicting the distinctive climate impacts of two flavors of ENSO during boreal winter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeong, Hye-In; Lee, Doo Young [APEC Climate Center (APCC), Pusan (Korea, Republic of); Pusan National University, Pusan (Korea, Republic of); Ashok, Karumuri [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Centre for Climate Change Research, Pune (India); Ahn, Joong-Bae [Pusan National University, Pusan (Korea, Republic of); Lee, June-Yi [University of Hawaii, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States); Luo, Jing-Jia [Research Institute for Global Change/JAMSTEC, Yokohama (Japan); Schemm, Jae-Kyung E. [NCEP/NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Camp Spring, MD (United States); Hendon, Harry H.; Braganza, Karl [Bureau of Meteorology, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Ham, Yoo-Geun [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA/GSFC), Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, MD (United States); Universities Space Research Association, Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research Studies and Investigations, Greenbelt, MD (United States)


    Forecast skill of the APEC Climate Center (APCC) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) seasonal forecast system in predicting two main types of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely canonical (or cold tongue) and Modoki ENSO, and their regional climate impacts is assessed for boreal winter. The APCC MME is constructed by simple composite of ensemble forecasts from five independent coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Based on a hindcast set targeting boreal winter prediction for the period 1982-2004, we show that the MME can predict and discern the important differences in the patterns of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly between the canonical and Modoki ENSO one and four month ahead. Importantly, the four month lead MME beats the persistent forecast. The MME reasonably predicts the distinct impacts of the canonical ENSO, including the strong winter monsoon rainfall over East Asia, the below normal rainfall and above normal temperature over Australia, the anomalously wet conditions across the south and cold conditions over the whole area of USA, and the anomalously dry conditions over South America. However, there are some limitations in capturing its regional impacts, especially, over Australasia and tropical South America at a lead time of one and four months. Nonetheless, forecast skills for rainfall and temperature over East Asia and North America during ENSO Modoki are comparable to or slightly higher than those during canonical ENSO events. (orig.)

  8. The impact of the warm phase of ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation events on water resource availability of tropical catchments in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Leemhuis


    Full Text Available Precipitation anomalies caused by the warm phase (El Niño of the ENSO cycle lead to a strong decrease of water resources in South-East Asia. The aim of this work is to study the impact of warm phase ENSO caused precipitation anomalies on the water balance of a mesoscale tropical catchment in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia using a scenario analysis. We applied statistically generated precipitation anomalies caused by warm phase ENSO events on a validated hydrological model of the Palu River catchment (2694 km2 to investigate the implications of the generated ENSO scenarios on the total annual water balance, the annual discharge regime and the discharge variability. Moreover we analysed the influence of various catchment characteristics during warm phase ENSO conditions on the discharge variability through a comparison of different sub-catchment types. The results of the scenario analysis proved a severe decline of the annual discharge rate during warm phase ENSO conditions and an increase of the overall discharge variability.

  9. What do we need to know to predict ENSO? Student-centered learning in a Master course in Climate Physics (United States)

    Lübbecke, Joke; Glessmer, Mirjam


    An important learning outcome of a Master of Sciences program is to empower students to understand which information they need, how they can gain the required knowledge and skills, and how to apply those to solve a given scientific problem. In designing a class on the El-Nino-Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) for students in the Climate Physics program at Kiel University, Germany, we have implemented various active learning strategies to meet this goal. The course is guided by an overarching question, embedded in a short story: What would we need to know to successfully predict ENSO? The students identify desired learning outcomes and collaboratively construct a concept map which then serves as a structure for the 12 weeks of the course, where each individual topic is situated in the larger context of the students' own concept map. Each learning outcome of the course is therefore directly motivated by a need to know expressed by the students themselves. During each session, students are actively involved in the learning process. They work individually or in small groups, for example testing different index definitions, analyzing data sets, setting up simple numerical models and planning and constructing hands-on experiments to demonstrate physical processes involved in the formation of El Niño events. The instructor's role is to provide the necessary background information and guide the students where it is needed. Insights are shared between groups as students present their findings to each other and combine the information, for example by cooperatively constructing a world map displaying the impacts of ENSO or by exchanging experts on different ENSO oscillator theories between groups. Development of this course was supported by the PerLe Fonds for teaching innovations at Kiel University. A preliminary evaluation has been very positive with students in particular appreciating their active involvement in the class.

  10. Toward a CFD-grade database addressing LWR containment phenomena

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paladino, Domenico, E-mail: [Laboratory for Thermal-Hydraulics, Nuclear Energy and Safety Department, Paul Scherrer Institut, CH-5232 Villigen PSI (Switzerland); Andreani, Michele; Zboray, Robert; Dreier, Joerg [Laboratory for Thermal-Hydraulics, Nuclear Energy and Safety Department, Paul Scherrer Institut, CH-5232 Villigen PSI (Switzerland)


    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The SETH-2 PANDA tests have supplied data with CFD-grade on plumes and jets at large-scale. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The PANDA tests have contributed to the understanding of phenomena with high safety relevance for LWRs. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The analytical activities related increased confidence in the use of various computational tools for safety analysis. - Abstract: The large-scale, multi-compartment PANDA facility (located at PSI in Switzerland) is one of the state-of-the-art facilities which is continuously upgraded to progressively match the requirements of CFD-grade experiments. Within the OECD/SETH projects, the PANDA facility has been used for the creation of an experimental database on basic containment phenomena e.g. gas mixing, transport, stratification, condensation. In the PANDA tests, these phenomena are driven by large scale plumes or jets. In the paper is presented a selection of the SETH PANDA experimental results. Examples of analytical activities performed at PSI using the GOTHIC, CFX-4 and CFX-5 codes will be used to illustrate how the spatial and temporal resolutions of the measurement grid in PANDA tests are adequate for CFD code (and advanced containment codes) assessment and validation purposes.

  11. Transport phenomena and drying of solids and particulate materials

    CERN Document Server

    Lima, AG


    The purpose of this book, Transport Phenomena and Drying of Solids and Particulate Materials, is to provide a collection of recent contributions in the field of heat and mass transfer, transport phenomena, drying and wetting of solids and particulate materials. The main benefit of the book is that it discusses some of the most important topics related to the heat and mass transfer in solids and particulate materials. It includes a set of new developments in the field of basic and applied research work on the physical and chemical aspects of heat and mass transfer phenomena, drying and wetting processes, namely, innovations and trends in drying science and technology, drying mechanism and theory, equipment, advanced modelling, complex simulation and experimentation. At the same time, these topics will be going to the encounter of a variety of scientific and engineering disciplines. The book is divided in several chapters that intend to be a resume of the current state of knowledge for benefit of professional c...

  12. A 2700-year record of ENSO and PDO variability from the Californian margin based on coccolithophore assemblages and calcification (United States)

    Beaufort, Luc; Grelaud, Michaël


    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) account for a large part of modern climate variability. Over the last decades, understanding of these modes of climate variability has increased but prediction in the context of global warming has proven difficult because of the lack of pertinent and reproducible paleodata. Here, we infer the dynamics of these oscillations from fossil assemblage and calcification state of coccolithophore in the Californian margin because El Niño has a strong impact on phytoplankton ecology and PDO on the upwelling intensity and hence on the ocean chemistry. Intense Californian upwelling brings water rich in CO2 and poor in carbonate ions and coccolithophores secrete lower calcified coccoliths. Seasonally laminated sediments of the Santa Barbara Basin are used to document ENSO variability and PDO index for the last 2700 years at a temporal resolution of 3 years. The records present the same characteristics as other PDO or ENSO records from the same area spanning the last centuries. We are therefore confident on the value produced here for the last 2.7 millennia. The records show important centennial variability that is equivalent to solar cycles.

  13. Impacts of Forest to Urban Land Conversion and ENSO Phase on Water Quality of a Public Water Supply Reservoir

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emile Elias


    Full Text Available We used coupled watershed and reservoir models to evaluate the impacts of deforestation and l Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO phase on drinking water quality. Source water total organic carbon (TOC is especially important due to the potential for production of carcinogenic disinfection byproducts (DBPs. The Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC reservoir model is used to evaluate the difference between daily pre- and post- urbanization nutrients and TOC concentration. Post-disturbance (future reservoir total nitrogen (TN, total phosphorus (TP, TOC and chlorophyll-a concentrations were found to be higher than pre-urbanization (base concentrations (p < 0.05. Predicted future median TOC concentration was 1.1 mg·L−1 (41% higher than base TOC concentration at the source water intake. Simulations show that prior to urbanization, additional water treatment was necessary on 47% of the days between May and October. However, following simulated urbanization, additional drinking water treatment might be continuously necessary between May and October. One of six ENSO indices is weakly negatively correlated with the measured reservoir TOC indicating there may be higher TOC concentrations in times of lower streamflow (La Niña. There is a positive significant correlation between simulated TN and TP concentrations with ENSO suggesting higher concentrations during El Niño.

  14. Tunable caustic phenomena in electron wavefields

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tavabi, Amir Hossein, E-mail: [Ernst Ruska-Centre for Microscopy and Spectroscopy with Electrons (ER-C) and Peter Grünberg Institute (PGI), Forschungszentrum Jülich, D-52425 Jülich (Germany); Migunov, Vadim; Dwyer, Christian; Dunin-Borkowski, Rafal E. [Ernst Ruska-Centre for Microscopy and Spectroscopy with Electrons (ER-C) and Peter Grünberg Institute (PGI), Forschungszentrum Jülich, D-52425 Jülich (Germany); Pozzi, Giulio [Ernst Ruska-Centre for Microscopy and Spectroscopy with Electrons (ER-C) and Peter Grünberg Institute (PGI), Forschungszentrum Jülich, D-52425 Jülich (Germany); Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Bologna, Viale B. Pichat 6/2, 40127 Bologna (Italy)


    Novel caustic phenomena, which contain fold, butterfly and elliptic umbilic catastrophes, are observed in defocused images of two approximately collinear oppositely biased metallic tips in a transmission electron microscope. The observed patterns depend sensitively on defocus, on the applied voltage between the tips and on their separation and lateral offset. Their main features are interpreted on the basis of a projected electrostatic potential model for the electron-optical phase shift. - Highlights: • Electron-optical caustics are observed in defocused images of biased metallic tips. • The caustics depend on defocus, on the bias between the tips and on their separation. • The setup offers the flexibility to study a wide variety of caustic phenomena.

  15. Ordering phenomena in ABA triblock copolymer gels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reynders, K.; Mischenko, N.; Kleppinger, R.


    Temperature and concentration dependencies of the degree of order in ABA triblock copolymer gels are discussed. Two factors can influence the ordering phenomena: the conformation of the midblocks (links of the network) and the polydispersity of the endblock domains (nodes of the network). The lat......Temperature and concentration dependencies of the degree of order in ABA triblock copolymer gels are discussed. Two factors can influence the ordering phenomena: the conformation of the midblocks (links of the network) and the polydispersity of the endblock domains (nodes of the network...... crystalline lattice with close-packed spheres or with cubic (presumably BCC) equilibrium morphology. The appearance of the latter is never detected in the gels with a stretched conformation of the midblock....

  16. Basic transport phenomena in materials engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Iguchi, Manabu


    This book presents the basic theory and experimental techniques of transport phenomena in materials processing operations. Such fundamental knowledge is highly useful for researchers and engineers in the field to improve the efficiency of conventional processes or develop novel technology. Divided into four parts, the book comprises 11 chapters describing the principles of momentum transfer, heat transfer, and mass transfer in single phase and multiphase systems. Each chapter includes examples with solutions and exercises to facilitate students’ learning. Diagnostic problems are also provided at the end of each part to assess students’ comprehension of the material.  The book is aimed primarily at students in materials science and engineering. However, it can also serve as a useful reference text in chemical engineering as well as an introductory transport phenomena text in mechanical engineering. In addition, researchers and engineers engaged in materials processing operations will find the material use...

  17. Transport phenomena in strongly correlated Fermi liquids

    CERN Document Server

    Kontani, Hiroshi


    In conventional metals, various transport coefficients are scaled according to the quasiparticle relaxation time, \\tau, which implies that the relaxation time approximation (RTA) holds well. However, such a simple scaling does not hold in many strongly correlated electron systems, reflecting their unique electronic states. The most famous example would be cuprate high-Tc superconductors (HTSCs), where almost all the transport coefficients exhibit a significant deviation from the RTA results. To better understand the origin of this discrepancy, we develop a method for calculating various transport coefficients beyond the RTA by employing field theoretical techniques. Near the magnetic quantum critical point, the current vertex correction (CVC), which describes the electron-electron scattering beyond the relaxation time approximation, gives rise to various anomalous transport phenomena. We explain anomalous transport phenomena in cuprate HTSCs and other metals near their magnetic or orbital quantum critical poi...

  18. Workshop on Nonlinear Phenomena in Complex Systems

    CERN Document Server


    This book contains a thorough treatment of neural networks, cellular-automata and synergetics, in an attempt to provide three different approaches to nonlinear phenomena in complex systems. These topics are of major interest to physicists active in the fields of statistical mechanics and dynamical systems. They have been developed with a high degree of sophistication and include the refinements necessary to work with the complexity of real systems as well as the more recent research developments in these areas.

  19. AC Electrokinetic Phenomena Generated by Microelectrode Structures (United States)

    Hart, Robert; Oh, Jonghyun; Capurro, Jorge; Noh, Hongseok (Moses)


    The field of AC electrokinetics is rapidly growing due to its ability to perform dynamic fluid and particle manipulation on the micro- and nano-scale, which is essential for Lab-on-a-Chip applications. AC electrokinetic phenomena use electric fields to generate forces that act on fluids or suspended particles (including those made of dielectric or biological material) and cause them to move in astonishing ways1, 2. Within a single channel, AC electrokinetics can accomplish many essential on-chip operations such as active micro-mixing, particle separation, particle positioning and micro-pattering. A single device may accomplish several of those operations by simply adjusting operating parameters such as frequency or amplitude of the applied voltage. Suitable electric fields can be readily created by micro-electrodes integrated into microchannels. It is clear from the tremendous growth in this field that AC electrokinetics will likely have a profound effect on healthcare diagnostics3-5, environmental monitoring6 and homeland security7. In general, there are three AC Electrokinetic phenomena (AC electroosmosis, dielectrophoresis and AC electrothermal effect) each with unique dependencies on the operating parameters. A change in these operating parameters can cause one phenomena to become dominant over another, thus changing the particle or fluid behavior. It is difficult to predict the behavior of particles and fluids due to the complicated physics that underlie AC electrokinetics. It is the goal of this publication to explain the physics and elucidate particle and fluid behavior. Our analysis also covers how to fabricate the electrode structures that generate them, and how to interpret a wide number of experimental observations using several popular device designs. This video article will help scientists and engineers understand these phenomena and may encourage them to start using AC Electrokinetics in their research. PMID:19066515

  20. Bridge windshield design to avoid aeroelastic phenomena


    Ogueta Gutiérrez, Mikel; Franchini Longhi, Sebastian Nicolas


    Since in 1940 the Tacoma Narrows Bridge was destroyed by the wind, aeroelastic instabilities have been recognized as one of the most challenging aspects of bridge design. They can produce long-term fatigue failure through vortex induced vibrations, or sudden collapse through self-excited flutter. These vibrations may also cause discomfort for the users and temporary closure of the bridge. Wind tunnel studies are a very helpful tool to understand these phenomena. By means of them, the critical...

  1. Duality in Liouville theory and moonshine phenomena


    Eguchi, Tohru; Sugawara, Yuji


    We consider the Liouville theory by varying the linear dilaton coupling constant . It is known that, at two different values of coupling constant , the system exhibits two different small superconformal symmetries with central charge and , respectively. In the context of string theory these two theories are considered to describe the Coulomb and Higgs branches of the theory and are expected to be dual to each other. We study the Mathieu and umbral moonshine phenomena in these two theories and...

  2. Quantum Chess: Making Quantum Phenomena Accessible (United States)

    Cantwell, Christopher

    Quantum phenomena have remained largely inaccessible to the general public. There tends to be a scare factor associated with the word ``Quantum''. This is in large part due to the alien nature of phenomena such as superposition and entanglement. However, Quantum Computing is a very active area of research and one day we will have games that run on those quantum computers. Quantum phenomena such as superposition and entanglement will seem as normal as gravity. Is it possible to create such games today? Can we make games that are built on top of a realistic quantum simulation and introduce players of any background to quantum concepts in a fun and mentally stimulating way? One of the difficulties with any quantum simulation run on a classical computer is that the Hilbert space grows exponentially, making simulations of an appreciable size physically impossible due largely to memory restrictions. Here we will discuss the conception and development of Quantum Chess, and how to overcome some of the difficulties faced. We can then ask the question, ``What's next?'' What are some of the difficulties Quantum Chess still faces, and what is the future of quantum games?


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available Risk phenomena in the Silvania Mountains, intuitive and genetic reflexes. In the contemporary period, the scientific research under the auspices of the global development has experienced a real quantitative and qualitative revolution. Theoretically and methodologically, the widespread promotion of the “concept of discontinuity” in terms of content, significances, manifestation, implications is observed, which has become a new imperative of the nowadays geography. The phenomena of discontinuity happen as real “paroxysmal, rhythm and intensity ruptures“ in relation to the normal occurrence defined either through the average value, determined on statistical basis as hydrological, meteorological, climatic phenomena or in discrete forms, when the phenomena occur in a veiled manner and they are perceptible only through their effects, respectively the environmental reflexes. Among the notions used with reference to extreme evolutionary discontinuities, we quote: the hazard, the disaster, the calamity and the risk to which was added a series of related notions: stability, sensitivity, resilience, fragility and vulnerability. The Silvania Mountains, a representative territorial unit within Silvania Land, with a fascinating and controversial geological origin, a real petrographic synthesis with uncovered crystalline stone, brought to the surface due to erosion under the layers of Neogene sediments, as a last remaining of a grandiose Hercynian chain with a varied orientation SW-NE of which were part the Massif Central –France, the east side, the Vosges Mountains, the Black Forest Mountains, the Harz Mountains and Bohemia. In this range of mountains, we also mention the Silvania Hercynian Mountains, respectively Plopiș and Meseș Mountains.This mountainous elevation level has an important role within the landscape as "geographical discontinuity factor” on one hand, between the Someșan Plateau and the Silvania piedmontan hills (Meseș Mountains

  4. Severe wind phenomena in Southern Africa and the related damage

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Goliger, Adam M


    Full Text Available 5000 10000 15000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 number of homeless peopl e year (decade) Fig. 20. Annual number of homeless people. A.M. Goliger, J.V. Retief / J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 95 (2007) 1065–1078 1077 decade were due to two large..., and further compounded by the historically inadequate coverage by the media. This statement is supported by the analysis of the number of people rendered homeless as a result of wind events shown in Fig. 20. In recent years, with more attention being paid...

  5. Phantom eye syndrome: types of visual hallucinations and related phenomena

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roed Rasmussen, Marie Louise; Prause, Jan U; Johnson, Martin


    most often white or colored light, as a continuous sharp light or as moving dots. The most frequent triggers were darkness, closing of the eyes, fatigue, and psychological stress; 54% of patients had the experience more than once a week. Ten patients were so visually disturbed that it interfered...

  6. Electroweak phase transition and some related phenomena – a brief ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)


    Aug 24, 2016 ... GeV scale, it, as against the beyond Standard Models. (BSMs) such as supersymmetric, extra-dimensional, two-Higgs doublet, little Higgs models etc., proved to be insufficient in the quantitative assessment of the above-mentioned cosmological events as well as accounting for the existence of dark matter ...

  7. Detection of surface glow related to spacecraft glow phenomena (United States)

    Langer, W. D.; Cohen, S. A.; Manos, D. M.; Motley, R. W.; Ono, M.


    A source of low energy neutral atoms and molecules has been developed by using a biased limiter to scrape off and reflect neutralized ions from a toroidal plasma. Beams of nitrogen and nitrogen-oxygen mixtures with energies of 1 to 15 eV and fluxes greater than about 10 to the 14 per centimeter per second were directed onto target surfaces consisting of Z-302 and Z-306 paints. With the nitrogen beams, a glow due to beam-surface interactions was successfully detected. In addition, a volume glow effect due to beam-gas interactions was observed which may play a role in spacecraft glow.

  8. Improving Stochastic Modelling of Daily Rainfall Using the ENSO Index: Model Development and Application in Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Urdiales


    Full Text Available Stochastic weather simulation, or weather generators (WGs, have gained a wide acceptance and been used for a variety of purposes, including climate change studies and the evaluation of climate variability and uncertainty effects. The two major challenges in WGs are improving the estimation of interannual variability and reducing overdispersion in the synthetic series of simulated weather. The objective of this work is to develop a WG model of daily rainfall, incorporating a covariable that accounts for interannual variability, and apply it in three climate regions (arid, Mediterranean, and temperate of Chile. Precipitation occurrence was modeled using a two-stage, first-order Markov chain, whose parameters are fitted with a generalized lineal model (GLM using a logistic function. This function considers monthly values of the observed Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies of the Region 3.4 of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO index as a covariable. Precipitation intensity was simulated with a mixed exponential distribution, fitted using a maximum likelihood approach. The stochastic simulation shows that the application of the approach to Mediterranean and arid climates largely eliminates the overdispersion problem, resulting in a much improved interannual variability in the simulated values.

  9. Extraction of 10–30-Day Stable Components from a Boreal Atmosphere during ENSO Phases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuo Wang


    Full Text Available Distinguishing the predictable 10–30-day stable components (STs in the actual atmosphere has been important in atmospheric science research. In this study, a new method for extracting 10–30-day STs was developed with the use of historical observations. We extracted and analyzed 10–30-day STs via statistical extrapolation tests. The results show that the STs are maintained uniformly at the intraseasonal time scale; the overall trends in the atmospheric motion are revealed. Comparisons between pentad-by-pentad changes in the explained variances of the 10–30-day STs under ENSO phases show that the explained variance transmission attenuation trends for El Niño and La Niña years are weaker and more continuous than those of neutral years. Data for 10–30-day STs can remain continuous and stable from one month to the next. The proposed method and results present a new means of extracting predictable STs from the atmosphere using historical data.

  10. Application of digital image processing techniques to faint solar flare phenomena (United States)

    Glackin, D. L.; Martin, S. F.


    Digital image processing of eight solar flare events was performed using the Video Information Communication and Retrieval language in order to study moving emission fronts, flare halos, and Moreton waves. The techniques used include contrast enhancement, isointensity contouring, the differencing of images, spatial filtering, and geometrical registration. The spatial extent and temporal behavior of the faint phenomena is examined along with the relation of the three types of phenomena to one another. The image processing techniques make possible the detailed study of the history of the phenomena and provide clues to their physical nature.

  11. Incidencia del fenómeno ENSO en la hidroclimatología del valle del río Cauca-Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    Full Text Available IMPACT DU PHÉNOMÈNE ENSO SUR L’HYDROCLIMATOLOGIE DU RIO CAUCA-COLOMBIE. On présente dans cet article quelques unes des manifestations du phénomène et leur impact sur la pénurie des ressources en eau dans la vallée du rio Cauca, au cours des périodes sèches ainsi que les crues et inondations, provoquées par les périodes excédentaires. L’évaluation de valeurs extrêmes des débits des rivières montre des différences liées à l’occurrence d’un El Niño. En présence d’un El Niño, les débits maximums seront plus forts et les débits d’étiages plus faibles. Au cours de ces périodes, on observe donc une augmentation du risque d’inondation au cours de la saison des pluies, alors que la quantité d’eau diminue au cours des périodes sèches avec un risque accru d’incendie de forêt. En este trabajo, se presentan algunas de las manifestaciones del Fenómeno y el impacto que ocasiona en la disponibilidad hídrica del Valle del Cauca durante la fase Cálida (Niño, por efecto del déficit hídrico, y durante la fase fría (AntiNiño o Niña por exceso de lluvias. La evaluación de los caudales mínimos de los ríos del Valle del Río Cauca, se asocia con los años de ocurrencia de la fase cálida, mientras los caudales medios máximos se asocian a períodos de ocurrencia de la fase fría (AntiNiño o Niña. Durante el Niño se presentan sequías, incendios forestales, pérdidas de cultivos, de perecederos, disminución de la pesca, incremento de enfermedades y racionamiento de energía, mientras que durante la Niña se presentan mayores riesgos de inundación, desbordamientos, desastres, erosión y destrucción de la infraestructura vial e hidráulica. INCIDENCE OF ENSO PHENOMENON IN THE HYDROCLIMATOLOGY OF THE RÍO CAUCA VALLEY-COLOMBIA. In this paper, the impacts of the El Niño and La Niña o AntiNiño phenomena on the water resources of the Valle del Cauca (Colombia are considered low flows in the rivers are associated with

  12. The physics of nanoelectronics transport and fluctuation phenomena at low temperatures

    CERN Document Server

    Heikkila, Tero T


    Advances in nanotechnology have allowed physicists and engineers to miniaturize electronic structures to the limit where finite-size related phenomena start to impact their properties. This book discusses such phenomena and models made for their description. The book starts from the semiclassical description of nonequilibrium effects, details the scattering theory used for quantum transport calculations, and explains the main interference effects. It also describes how to treat fluctuations and correlations, how interactions affect transport through small islands, and how superconductivity modifies these effects. The last two chapters describe new emerging fields related with graphene and nanoelectromechanics. The focus of the book is on the phenomena rather than formalism, but the book still explains in detail the main models constructed for these phenomena. It also introduces a number of electronic devices, including the single-electron transistor, the superconducting tunnel junction refrigerator, and the s...

  13. Non-Abelian phenomena on D-branes

    CERN Document Server

    Myers, R


    A remarkable feature of D-branes is the appearance of a non-Abelian gauge theory in the description of several (nearly) coincident branes. This non-Abelian structure plays an important role in realizing various geometric effects with D-branes. In particular, the branes' transverse displacements are described by matrix-valued scalar fields and so noncommutative geometry naturally appears in this framework. I review the action governing this non-Abelian theory, as well as various related physical phenomena such as the dielectric effect, giant gravitons and fuzzy funnels.

  14. Analysis of extreme hydrological phenomena in southern Italy (Calabria region) (United States)

    Caloiero, Tommaso; Aceto, Luigi; Aurora Pasqua, A.; Petrucci, Olga


    Calabria (southern Italy) is a region exposed to the effects of contrasting climatic and hydrological phenomena. In fact, due to its oblong shape, to its position in the middle of the Mediterranean Basin, and for its mountainous nature, Calabria shows a high spatial variability of the climatic features and of related phenomena such as floods and drought. The present paper is based on the historical database ASICal (Historically flooded areas in Calabria), a catalogue of effects of floods and rain-related landslides that occurred in the region since the XIX Century. The catalogue has been built using the typical historical data sources as chronicles, diaries, historical books, local and regional agencies, press archives, scientific papers, and documents of civil protection offices. From these sources, we selected information on damage caused by rain related phenomena at a municipal scale and chronologically sorted by year, month and day. The analysis of the entire catalogue allows highlighting the regional Damaging Hydrogeological Events (DHE), defined as periods of intense rain causing damage on regional sectors conventionally selected as larger than 30% of the entire regional territory. For each event, as a measure of the magnitude of rainfall, the return period of the daily rainfall recorded during the event has been evaluated. In addition, we recently carried out a similar historical research to identify the main drought events affecting the region. In this case, due to the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought, data are collected both at municipal and regional scale, and the temporal scale is generally monthly or annual. For each event, we used as climatic descriptors a drought index for monitoring drought phenomena. Among drought indices, we used the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) which can be considered the most robust and effective, since it can be calculated for different time-scales and can be used to analyse different drought categories


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Salini Calderón


    Full Text Available Se indica cómo manejar una gran base de datos consistente de series temporales no lineales, aplicando distintas técnicas de modelamiento no lineal a estas series. Aunque no existen guías explícitas de manipulación de series temporales no lineales en la profusa bibliografía actual, existen diferentes enfoques que pueden ser tomados en cuenta. Para ello se estudió una base de datos mensual correspondiente a datos del Fenómeno del Niño (ENSO, entre los años 1866 y 2006. Se explica cómo debe manipularse esta base de datos que poseen características de no linealidad, la cual será usada para hacer pronósticos varios pasos en adelante. Se aplicaron dos test estándar: Información Mutua Promedio (AMI y Falsos Vecinos más Cercanos (FNN. Se obtuvo el espaciamiento óptimo de los datos, así como el número de datos hacia atrás necesarios para pronosticar valores hacia el futuro. Luego, se diseñaron varios modelos de redes neuronales artificiales (RNA, con diferentes reglas de aprendizajes, funciones de transferencia, elementos de procesamiento (o neuronas en la capa escondida, etc., que permitieron hacer pronóstico de hasta 20 pasos en adelante. Las mejores redes correspondieron a aquellas que poseían como regla de aprendizaje la Regla Delta y la Regla Extendida, con función de transferencia sigmoide y tangente hiperbólica. El tipo de RNA usada fue una de multicapas alimentada hacia adelante y entrenada mediante la técnica de propagación hacia atrás. Se probaron redes con una, dos capas ocultas y sin ninguna capa. El mejor modelo que se obtuvo resultó ser uno consistente de una capa oculta.We indicate how to handle a large database consisting of nonlinear time series, applying different nonlinear modelling techniques to this kind of times series. Nowadays in the current references there is no explicit guide of how to manipulate data from nonlinear time series; however, there are approaches that can be taken account. To this end

  16. Studies of Novel Quantum Phenomena in Ruthenates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mao, Zhiqiang


    Strongly correlated oxides have been the subject of intense study in contemporary condensed matter physics, and perovskite ruthenates (Sr,Ca)n+1RunO3n+1 have become a new focus in this field. One of important characteristics of ruthenates is that both lattice and orbital degrees of freedom are active and are strongly coupled to charge and spin degrees of freedom. Such a complex interplay of multiple degrees of freedom causes the properties of ruthenates to exhibit a gigantic response to external stimuli under certain circumstances. Magnetic field, pressure, and chemical composition all have been demonstrated to be effective in inducing electronic/magnetic phase transitions in ruthenates. Therefore, ruthenates are ideal candidates for searching for novel quantum phenomena through controlling external parameters. The objective of this project is to search for novel quantum phenomena in ruthenate materials using high-quality single crystals grown by the floating-zone technique, and investigate the underlying physics. The following summarizes our accomplishments. We have focused on trilayered Sr4Ru3O10 and bilayered (Ca1-xSrx)3Ru2O7. We have succeeded in growing high-quality single crystals of these materials using the floating-zone technique and performed systematic studies on their electronic and magnetic properties through a variety of measurements, including resistivity, Hall coefficient, angle-resolved magnetoresistivity, Hall probe microscopy, and specific heat. We have also studied microscopic magnetic properties for some of these materials using neutron scattering in collaboration with Los Alamos National Laboratory. We have observed a number of unusual exotic quantum phenomena through these studies, such as an orbital selective metamagnetic transition, bulk spin valve effect, and a heavy-mass nearly ferromagnetic state with a surprisingly large Wilson ratio. Our work has also revealed underlying physics of these exotic phenomena. Exotic phenomena of correlated

  17. Rod Driven Frequency Entrainment and Resonance Phenomena

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina Salchow


    Full Text Available A controversy exists on photic driving in the human visual cortex evoked by intermittent photic stimulation. Frequency entrainment and resonance phenomena are reported for frequencies higher than 12 Hz in some studies while missing in others. We hypothesized that this might be due to different experimental conditions, since both high and low intensity light stimulation were used. However, most studies do not report radiometric measurements, which makes it impossible to categorize the stimulation according to photopic, mesopic, and scotopic vision. Low intensity light stimulation might lead to scotopic vision, where rod perception dominates. In this study, we investigated photic driving for rod-dominated visual input under scotopic conditions. Twelve healthy volunteers were stimulated with low intensity light flashes at 20 stimulation frequencies, leading to rod activation only. The frequencies were multiples of the individual alpha frequency (α of each volunteer in the range from 0.40–2.30*α. 306-channel whole head magnetoencephalography recordings were analyzed in time, frequency, and spatiotemporal domains with the Topographic Matching Pursuit algorithm. We found resonance phenomena and frequency entrainment for stimulations at or close to the individual alpha frequency (0.90–1.10*α and half of the alpha frequency (0.40–0.55*α. No signs of resonance and frequency entrainment phenomena were revealed around 2.00*α. Instead, on-responses at the beginning and off-responses at the end of each stimulation train were observed for the first time in a photic driving experiment at frequencies of 1.30–2.30*α, indicating that the flicker fusion threshold was reached. All results, the resonance and entrainment as well as the fusion effects, provide evidence for rod-dominated photic driving in the visual cortex.

  18. Identifying and understanding vegetation productivity swings in response to ENSO dynamics to improve land surface modeling capability in quantifying extreme events across Australia and East Asia (United States)

    Broich, Mark; Huete, Alfredo; Yu, Qiang; Davies, Kevin; Restrepo-Coupe, Natalia


    In this study we quantified linkages between climate and vegetation productivity response across large areas in Australia and East Asia, and carried out more detailed analysis for areas and intervals with extreme productivity swings. We first quantified teleconnections between large scale atmospheric oscillations over the western Pacific and vegetation productivity across Australia, Southeast and East Asia. For this purpose we analyzed remotely sensed vegetation productivity (estimated from MODIS vegetation index time series) in response to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). This resulted in a spatially explicit representation of extreme vegetation productivity response to regional climatic variability. For areas and intervals with strong vegetation productivity swings we then investigated the spatial-temporal relationship of remotely sensed vegetation productivity with temperature and rainfall grids as well as with productivity responses predicted by the Australian CSIRO Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) model. By conducting this study across various spatial-temporal scales and variable aggregations, we identified geographic areas and intervals with strong vegetation productivity swings related to SOI atmospheric oscillations and attributed these swings to changes in regional temperature and precipitation grids. The final step of quantifying the space-time correlation between extreme swings in remotely sensed vegetation productivity and land surface model predictions provided insight into model capacity and sensitivity. We identified large ENSO drought-related crop productivity declines for Eastern Australia, continental and insular Southeast Asia and, temporally offset, in northeastern China. The largest divergence between extreme remotely sensed vegetation productivity drops and CABLE-predicted productivity occurred over ground water dependent ecosystems.

  19. Results on large transverse momentum phenomena

    CERN Document Server

    Büsser, F W; Blumenfeld, B; Camilleri, L L; Cool, R L; Di Lella, L; Gladding, G; Lederman, Leon Max; Litt, L; Placci, A; Pope, B G; Segler, S L; Smith, A M; Yoh, J K; Zavattini, E


    Preliminary results of an experiment on large transverse momentum phenomena performed at the CERN-ISR at centre-of-mass energies of 52.7 and 44.8 GeV are presented. The topics studied were the inclusive reaction p+p to pi /sup 0/+'anything', where the pi /sup 0/ was emitted around 90 degrees in the centre- of-mass system, ( pi /sup 0/ pi /sup 0/) correlations, and the charged multiplicity associated with large transverse momentum pi /sup 0/'s. In addition, results of a search for electrons and electron pairs are included. (4 refs).

  20. Modeling in transport phenomena a conceptual approach

    CERN Document Server

    Tosun, Ismail


    Modeling in Transport Phenomena, Second Edition presents and clearly explains with example problems the basic concepts and their applications to fluid flow, heat transfer, mass transfer, chemical reaction engineering and thermodynamics. A balanced approach is presented between analysis and synthesis, students will understand how to use the solution in engineering analysis. Systematic derivations of the equations and the physical significance of each term are given in detail, for students to easily understand and follow up the material. There is a strong incentive in science and engineering to

  1. Micro- and nanoscale phenomena in tribology

    CERN Document Server

    Chung, Yip-Wah


    Drawn from presentations at a recent National Science Foundation Summer Institute on Nanomechanics, Nanomaterials, and Micro/Nanomanufacturing, Micro- and Nanoscale Phenomena in Tribology explores the convergence of the multiple science and engineering disciplines involved in tribology and the connection from the macro to nano world. Written by specialists from computation, materials science, mechanical engineering, surface physics, and chemistry, each chapter provides up-to-date coverage of both basic and advanced topics and includes extensive references for further study.After discussing the

  2. Cooperative phenomena in flows; Poster abstracts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loekseth, Trine (ed.)


    The objective of this 'Geilo School' was to bring together researchers with various interests and background including theoretical experimental physicists, material scientists and molecular biologists to identify and discuss areas where synergism between these disciplines may be most fruitfully applied to the study of various aspects of 'Cooperative phenomena in flows'. There were altogether 21 lecturers at the School with about 80 participants from 19 countries. This was the 21. Geilo School held biannually since the first one in I971. Reference to the earlier Geilo Schools 1971-2009 may be found here: (Author)

  3. Nanoscale and microscale phenomena fundamentals and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Khandekar, Sameer


    The book is an outcome of research work in the areas of nanotechnology, interfacial science, nano- and micro-fluidics and manufacturing, soft matter, and transport phenomena at nano- and micro-scales. The contributing authors represent prominent research groups from Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur and Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore. The book has 13 chapters and the entire work presented in the chapters is based on research carried out over past three years. The chapters are designed with number of coloured illustrations, figures and tables. The book will be highly beneficial to academicians as well as industrial professionals working in the mentioned areas.

  4. Electrical breakdown phenomena of dielectric elastomers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yu, Liyun; Mateiu, Ramona Valentina; Skov, Anne Ladegaard

    years. However, optimization with respect to the dielectric permittivity solely may lead to other problematic phenomena such as premature electrical breakdown. In this work, we focus on the chloro propyl functionalized silicone elastomers prepared in Madsen et al[2] and we investigate the electrical...... breakdown patterns of two similar chloro propyl functionalized silicone elastomers which break down electrically in a rather different way as well as we compare them to a silicone based reference. Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and Energy Dispersive X-Ray Spectroscopy (EDS) are used to evaluate...... the elastomers after electrical breakdown....

  5. Chalcogenides Metastability and Phase Change Phenomena

    CERN Document Server

    Kolobov, Alexander V


    A state-of-the-art description of metastability observed in chalcogenide alloys is presented with the accent on the underlying physics. A comparison is made between sulphur(selenium)-based chalcogenide glasses, where numerous photo-induced phenomena take place entirely within the amorphous phase, and tellurides where a reversible crystal-to-amorphous phase-change transformation is a major effect. Applications of metastability in devices¿optical memories and nonvolatile electronic phase-change random-access memories among others are discussed, including the latest trends. Background material essential for understanding current research in the field is also provided.

  6. Whither the Future of Controlling Quantum Phenomena? (United States)

    Rabitz, Herschel; de Vivie-Riedle, Regina; Motzkus, Marcus; Kompa, Karl


    This review puts into perspective the present state and prospects for controlling quantum phenomena in atoms and molecules. The topics considered include the nature of physical and chemical control objectives, the development of possible quantum control rules of thumb, the theoretical design of controls and their laboratory realization, quantum learning and feedback control in the laboratory, bulk media influences, and the ability to utilize coherent quantum manipulation as a means for extracting microscopic information. The preview of the field presented here suggests that important advances in the control of molecules and the capability of learning about molecular interactions may be reached through the application of emerging theoretical concepts and laboratory technologies.

  7. Heavenly Bodies and Phenomena in Petroglyphs (United States)

    Tokhatyan, Karen


    In Armenian culture are amply reflected realities connected with Universe. Their figurative expressions are also petroglyphs in which there are representations of solar signs, swastika, Moon crescend, planets, stars, star groups, constellations, Milky Way, Earth. Among heavenly and atmospheric phenomena are: eclipce, meteor, comet, ligthning, cloud, rain and rainbow. There are many products of scientific thinking: stellar maps, calendars, compasses, astronomical records, Zodiac signs and ideograms. Thousands of the Armenian petroglyphs that were created millennia ago by an indigenous ethnos - Armenians, point to the significant place of celestial bodies and luminaries, especially the Sun, stars, and stellar constellations in our ancestors' cosmological perceptions.

  8. Highly energetic phenomena in water electrolysis


    Postnikov, A. V.; Uvarov, I. V.; Lokhanin, M. V.; V. B. Svetovoy


    Water electrolysis performed in microsystems with a fast change of voltage polarity produces optically invisible nanobubbles containing H2 and O2 gases. In this form the gases are able to the reverse reaction of water formation. Here we report extreme phenomena observed in a millimeter-sized open system. Under a frequency of driving pulses above 100 kHz the process is accompanied by clicking sounds repeated every 50 ms or so. Fast video reveals that synchronously with the click a bubble is gr...

  9. Advances in modelling of condensation phenomena

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, W.S.; Zaltsgendler, E. [Ontario Hydro Nuclear, Toronto (Canada); Hanna, B. [Atomic Energy of Canada Limited, Pinawa, Manitoba (Canada)


    The physical parameters in the modelling of condensation phenomena in the CANDU reactor system codes are discussed. The experimental programs used for thermal-hydraulic code validation in the Canadian nuclear industry are briefly described. The modelling of vapour generation and in particular condensation plays a key role in modelling of postulated reactor transients. The condensation models adopted in the current state-of-the-art two-fluid CANDU reactor thermal-hydraulic system codes (CATHENA and TUF) are described. As examples of the modelling challenges faced, the simulation of a cold water injection experiment by CATHENA and the simulation of a condensation induced water hammer experiment by TUF are described.

  10. Syntactic Idioms and Precedent Phenomena: Intersection Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanna Sytar


    Full Text Available Background: One examined mainly structural and semantic features of syntactic idioms so far. The pragmatic dimension of these original units that are on the verge of syntax and phraseology, has not been highlighted properly in the scientific literature, so it needs theoretical understanding. The combination of syntactic idiom and phraseological phenomenon refers to the communication techniques impacting on message recipient. Purpose: to analyze the intersection zones of syntactic idioms and precedent phenomena. Results: Analysis of the collected factual material allows to distinguish two areas of interpenetration of syntactic idioms and precedent units: 1 construction of expression according to the phraseologized model, within which the position of variable component is filled by the precedent name or precedent expression; 2 the model of sentence itself is precedent, and lexical content does not comply with generally known one that does not affect on understanding of model content by recipient. With a combination of syntactic idiom and precedent phenomena speakers provide drawing of recipients’ attention, carry out a hidden influence on them, express their own attitude to the realities, so that perform phatic, manipulative and expressive-evaluative functions. The modifications and transformations of precedent expressions and names appeared to be regular in such interpenetrations. Discussion: The obtained results reflect the general trend towards transform (transformation, modification, variation, etc. of precedent, as well as phraseological units, and can be used for the analysis of patterns of their formation and modifications. Further research phase implies tracing patterns of syntactic idioms combination with other means of expressive syntax.

  11. WHC natural phenomena hazards mitigation implementation plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Conrads, T.J.


    Natural phenomena hazards (NPH) are unexpected acts of nature which pose a threat or danger to workers, the public or to the environment. Earthquakes, extreme winds (hurricane and tornado),snow, flooding, volcanic ashfall, and lightning strike are examples of NPH at Hanford. It is the policy of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to design, construct and operate DOE facilitiesso that workers, the public and the environment are protected from NPH and other hazards. During 1993 DOE, Richland Operations Office (RL) transmitted DOE Order 5480.28, ``Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation,`` to Westinghouse Hanford COmpany (WHC) for compliance. The Order includes rigorous new NPH criteria for the design of new DOE facilities as well as for the evaluation and upgrade of existing DOE facilities. In 1995 DOE issued Order 420.1, ``Facility Safety`` which contains the same NPH requirements and invokes the same applicable standards as Order 5480.28. It will supersede Order 5480.28 when an in-force date for Order 420.1 is established through contract revision. Activities will be planned and accomplished in four phases: Mobilization; Prioritization; Evaluation; and Upgrade. The basis for the graded approach is the designation of facilities/structures into one of five performance categories based upon safety function, mission and cost. This Implementation Plan develops the program for the Prioritization Phase, as well as an overall strategy for the implemention of DOE Order 5480.2B.

  12. Uncommon corrosion phenomena of archaeological bronze alloys (United States)

    Ingo, G. M.; de Caro, T.; Riccucci, C.; Khosroff, S.


    In the framework of the EFESTUS project (funded by the European Commission, contract No. ICA3-CT-2002-10030) the corrosion products of a large number of archaeological bronze artefacts are investigated by means of the combined use of scanning electron microscopy (SEM), energy dispersive spectrometry (EDS), X-ray diffraction (XRD) and optical microscopy (OM) and tentative correlation of their nature with the chemical composition of the artefacts and the burial context is proposed. The results provide good insight into the corrosion layers and evidence in some bronze Roman coins and artefacts; the occurrence of uncommon corrosion phenomena that give rise to the formation of a yellowish-green complex chlorine-phosphate of lead (pyromorphite, (PbCl)Pb4(PO4)3) and of a gold-like thick layer of an iron and copper sulphide (chalcopyrite, CuFeS2). The micro-chemical and micro-structural results show that the coins were buried in a soil enriched in phosphorus for the accidental presence of a large amount of decomposing fragments of bones or in an anaerobic and humus rich soil where the chalcopyrite layer has been produced via the interaction between the iron of the soil, the copper of the coin and the sulphur produced by the decomposition of organic matter in an almost oxygen free environment. Finally, some unusual periodic corrosion phenomena occurring in high tin bronze mirrors found at Zama (Tunisia) are described.

  13. "Did You Climax or Are You Just Laughing at Me?" Rare Phenomena Associated With Orgasm. (United States)

    Reinert, Anna E; Simon, James A


    The study of the human orgasm has shown a core set of physiologic and psychological symptoms experienced by most individuals. The study of normal sheds light on the abnormal and has spotlighted rare physical and psychological symptoms experienced by some individuals in association with orgasm. These phenomena are rare and, as is typical of rare phenomena, their documentation in the medical literature is largely confined to case studies. To identify peri-orgasmic phenomena, defined as unusual physical or psychological symptoms subjectively experienced by some individuals as part of the orgasm response, distinct from the usual or normal orgasm response. A list of peri-orgasmic phenomena was made with help from sexual health colleagues and, using this list as a foundation, a literature search was performed of articles published in English. Publications included in this review report on physical or psychological phenomena at the time of orgasm that are distinct from psychological, whole-body, and genito-pelvic sensations commonly experienced at the time of orgasm. Cases of physical symptoms related to the physiology of sexual intercourse and not specifically to orgasm were excluded. Case studies of peri-orgasmic phenomena were reviewed, including cases describing cataplexy (weakness), crying, dysorgasmia, dysphoria, facial and/or ear pain, foot pain, headache, pruritus, laughter, panic attack, post-orgasm illness syndrome, seizures, and sneezing. The literature review confirms the existence of diverse and frequently replicated peri-orgasmic phenomena. The value of case studies is in the collection and recording of observations so that hypotheses can be formed about the observed phenomena. Accordingly, this review could inspire further research on the neurophysiologic mechanisms of orgasm. Reinert AE, Simon JA. "Did You Climax or Are You Just Laughing at Me?" Rare Phenomena Associated With Orgasm. Sex Med Rev 2017;5:275-281. Copyright © 2017 International Society for

  14. Impacts of high-latitude volcanic eruptions on ENSO and AMOC. (United States)

    Pausata, Francesco S R; Chafik, Leon; Caballero, Rodrigo; Battisti, David S


    Large volcanic eruptions can have major impacts on global climate, affecting both atmospheric and ocean circulation through changes in atmospheric chemical composition and optical properties. The residence time of volcanic aerosol from strong eruptions is roughly 2-3 y. Attention has consequently focused on their short-term impacts, whereas the long-term, ocean-mediated response has not been well studied. Most studies have focused on tropical eruptions; high-latitude eruptions have drawn less attention because their impacts are thought to be merely hemispheric rather than global. No study to date has investigated the long-term effects of high-latitude eruptions. Here, we use a climate model to show that large summer high-latitude eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere cause strong hemispheric cooling, which could induce an El Niño-like anomaly, in the equatorial Pacific during the first 8-9 mo after the start of the eruption. The hemispherically asymmetric cooling shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward, triggering a weakening of the trade winds over the western and central equatorial Pacific that favors the development of an El Niño-like anomaly. In the model used here, the specified high-latitude eruption also leads to a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the first 25 y after the eruption, followed by a weakening lasting at least 35 y. The long-lived changes in the AMOC strength also alter the variability of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

  15. Late Holocene Hydroclimate Variability of West-Central Guatemala Driven by NAO and ENSO (United States)

    Stansell, N.; Feller, J. R.; Steinman, B. A.; Lachniet, M. S.; Shea, C.; Avendaño, C.


    Finely-laminated sediments from Lake San Francisco in the Huehuetenango province of west-central Guatemala provide a sub-decadal resolution record of hydroclimate variability spanning the last 5200 years. Age control is based on 7 radiocarbon samples of charcoal and lead-210 dating of surface sediments. Modern water isotope samples indicate the lake is currently an open system, and variations of δ18O values of precipitation in the region are driven largely by the amount effect. In contrast, a strong covariance of δ18O and δ13C values combined with pollen evidence in the lower part of the record suggests the lake was a seasonally closed-basin from 5200 to 3200 BP, and was sensitive to evaporation under more arid conditions. There was an overall trend of increasingly wetter conditions during the late Holocene, and a lack of covariance between δ18O and δ13C indicates that the lake transitioned to an open-basin after 3200 BP. The Medieval Climate Anomaly was the wettest period of the late Holocene, and there was a shift to lower precipitation amounts during the Little Ice Age. Present conditions are more arid than most of the last millennium, but δ18O values in the modern sediments are intermediate compared to the full late Holocene. The Lake San Francisco record provides additional evidence that the hydroclimate of Central America is sensitive to both changes in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Drier conditions at San Francisco over the length of the record were associated with more negative phases of NAO and vice versa. During the last 1500 years, drier conditions at San Francisco were also associated with warmer sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Niño3 region, and it was wetter when SSTs were colder.

  16. Large-scale shifts in phytoplankton groups in the Equatorial Pacific during ENSO cycles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Masotti


    Full Text Available The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO drives important changes in the marine productivity of the Equatorial Pacific, in particular during major El Niño/La Niña transitions. Changes in environmental conditions associated with these climatic events also likely impact phytoplankton composition. In this work, the distribution of four major phytoplankton groups (nanoeucaryotes, Prochlorococcus, Synechococcus, and diatoms was examined between 1996 and 2007 by applying the PHYSAT algorithm to the ocean color data archive from the Ocean Color and Temperature Sensor (OCTS and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS. Coincident with the decrease in chlorophyll concentrations, a large-scale shift in the phytoplankton composition of the Equatorial Pacific, that was characterized by a decrease in Synechococcus and an increase in nanoeucaryote dominance, was observed during the early stages of both the strong El Niño of 1997 and the moderate El Niño of 2006. A significant increase in diatoms dominance was observed in the Equatorial Pacific during the 1998 La Niña and was associated with elevated marine productivity. An analysis of the environmental variables using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model (NEMO-PISCES suggests that the Synechococcus dominance decrease during the two El Niño events was associated with an abrupt decline in nutrient availability (−0.9 to −2.5 μM NO3 month−1. Alternatively, increased nutrient availability (3 μM NO3 month−1 during the 1998 La Niña resulted in Equatorial Pacific dominance diatom increase. Despite these phytoplankton community shifts, the mean composition is restored after a few months, which suggests resilience in community structure.

  17. Testing for orbital and solar forcing of the ENSO system during the Holocene (United States)

    Grist, H.; Marchitto, T. M.; Parker, A. O.; Ortiz, J. D.; van Geen, A.


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system has been shown to vary on both orbital and millennial timescales during the late Quaternary. Proxy records of Mg/Ca-derived sea surface temperature (SST) and climate models show an increased temperature gradient across the Pacific corresponding to a more La Niña-like state during the early-mid-Holocene. This may be attributed to an ';ocean dynamical thermostat' whereby increased boreal summer/fall insolation enhances the easterlies and intensifies the Pacific cold tongue. Previous measurements on Globigerina bulloides from the Soledad Basin off the coast of Baja California Sur (Marchitto et al., 2010) confirm orbital scale cooling during the early-mid-Holocene (10-4 ka). Millennial scale cold intervals between 11-7 ka correspond to solar maxima suggesting that the ocean dynamical thermostat also operates on millennial timescales. However Marchitto et al. could not rule out local upwelling as a driver of G. bulloides temperature variations since this species lives near the surface during the upwelling season. We aim to resolve the source of the temperature signal observed in Soledad Basin by analyzing two other species for Mg/Ca. Globigerinoides ruber lives in the surface mixed layer during summer months. We expect G. ruber to have experienced the early-mid Holocene shoaling of the thermocline as recorded by G. bulloides. If not, we must attribute some or all of the G. bulloides signal to an upwelling season response to direct solar insolation. Neogloboquadrina incompta lives at the deep chlorophyll maximum, and the depth of its habitat changes little as the thermocline shoals or deepens allowing Mg/Ca reconstructions to track changes in thermocline depth. Preliminary results from N. incompta across several millennial-scale coolings show temperature changes of similar magnitudes to those found in G. bulloides, indicating that the coolings are indeed due to La Niña-like shoaling of the thermocline.

  18. Contrasting biogeochemical responses of ENSO induced upwelling variability in the Humboldt Current System (United States)

    Franco, Ana C.; Gruber, Nicolas; Münnich, Matthias


    The Humboldt Current System (HCS) is one of the most productive ecosystems in the world. This high productivity is supported by a large input of nutrients from the subsurface layers to the surface due to year-round upwelling. However, upwelling also supplies waters with low pH and low aragonite saturation state potentially affecting many organisms, especially those that calcify. The influence, extent and source of upwelled water vary substantially on interannual timescales in association with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, generating natural contrasting responses on the biogeochemistry of this system. Here we analyze these responses using an eddy resolving, basin-scale ocean model that covers the whole Pacific Ocean with high resolution (4 km) on the west coast of South America. We performed a simulation of the last 30 years (hindcast simulation) that allows us to investigate the influence of at least eight El Niño episodes and eight La Niña episodes on productivity variations and changes in oxygen concentration and aragonite saturation state. An absolute change in surface omega aragonite of almost 2 units, as well as an absolute change of the aragonite saturation depth of 200 m result from the change of an El Niño phase to a La Niña phase. This variability is on the same order of magnitude as the projected change in the aragonite saturation state in a centennial timescale. During La Niña events, a lower aragonite saturation state values and reduced oxygen concentration in the surface layer are a direct consequence of enhanced upwelling and increased net primary productivity. The opposite is true during El Niño events, where high values of omega aragonite occur in concordance with extraordinarily low net primary productivity values.

  19. Sea level variability in East China Sea and its response to ENSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun-cheng ZUO


    Full Text Available Sea level variability in the East China Sea (ECS was examined based primarily on the analysis of TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry data and tide gauge data as well as numerical simulation with the Princeton ocean model (POM. It is concluded that the inter-annual sea level variation in the ECS is negatively correlated with the ENSO index, and that the impact is more apparent in the southern area than in the northern area. Both data analysis and numerical model results also show that the sea level was lower during the typical El Niño period of 1997 to 1998. El Niño also causes the decrease of the annual sea level variation range in the ECS. This phenomenon is especially evident in the southern ECS. The impacts of wind stress and ocean circulation on the sea level variation in the ECS are also discussed in this paper. It is found that the wind stress most strongly affecting the sea level was in the directions of 70º and 20º south of east, respectively, over the northern and southern areas of the ECS. The northwest wind is particularly strong when El Niño occurs, and sea water is transported southeastward, which lowers the sea level in the southern ECS. The sea level variation in the southern ECS is also significantly affected by the strengthening of the Kuroshio. During the strengthening period of the Kuroshio, the sea level in the ECS usually drops, while the sea level rises when the Kuroshio weakens.

  20. Antarctic Circumpolar Wave and its Seasonality: Intrinsic Traveling Modes and ENSO Teleconnections (United States)

    Wang, X.; Giannakis, D.; Slawinska, J. M.


    Despite global warming, recent changes in Antarctic sea ice exhibit a complex spatial structure that integrates to positive trend for the whole continent. This tendency is in stark contract with model projections and remains challenging to explain as separation of multi-scale natural variability and anthropogenic forcing is limited by the time span of the observational record. Moreover, due to the data preprocessing required by conventional data analysis techniques (e.g., EOF analysis), the results have frequently ambiguous physical interpretation. In this work, we study Antarctic sea ice variability in a millennial control integration of CCSM4 and in HadISST data using nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis (NLSA), a nonlinear decomposition method which does not require data pre-filtering. Applied to sea ice concentration data, NLSA recovers the dominant signal that corresponds to the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW). This mode has a period of around 4-5 years, and the corresponding spatiotemporal pattern shows a clear eastward propagation around Antarctica. Two further groups of modes have frequencies consistent with the nonlinear modulation of the annual cycle by the ACW, and exhibit eastward and westward propagation, respectively. We explain the origin of these modes by establishing the teleconnection between ACW and the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean; in particular, NLSA recovers a fundamental ENSO mode and its associated combination modes with the annual cycle that project strongly to ACW modes identified over Antarctica. Moreover, by applying multivariate analysis of SST and surface winds, we identify physical mechanisms coupling Antarctic sea ice with atmospheric and oceanic circulation over the Southern Oceans. Extensions of this work aiming to improve model fidelity and predictability of the Antarctic cryosphere are also discussed.

  1. ENSO-Driven Variability of Denitrification and Suboxia in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean (United States)

    Yang, Simon; Gruber, Nicolas; Long, Matthew C.; Vogt, Meike


    The Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) hosts two of the world's three Oxygen Deficient Zones (ODZs), large bodies of suboxic water that are subject to high rates of water column denitrification (WCD). In the mean, these two ODZs are responsible for about 15 to 40% of all fixed N loss in the ocean, but little is known about how this loss varies in time. Here we use a hindcast simulation with the ocean component of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model over the period 1948 to 2009 to show that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives large variations in the rates of WCD in this region. During mature La Niña (El Niño) conditions, peak denitrification rates are up to 70% higher (lower) than the mean rates. This large variability is the result of wind-driven changes in circulation and isopycnal structure concurrently modifying the thermocline distribution of O2 and organic matter export in such a way that the response of WCD is strongly amplified. During average La Niña (El Niño) conditions, the overall changes in ODZ structure and primarily the shoaling (deepening) of the upper boundary of both ODZs by 40 to 100 m explains 50% of the changes in WCD in the North Pacific and 94% in the South Pacific. Such a large variability of WCD in the ETP has strong implications for the assessments of trends, the balance of the marine N cycle and the emission of the greenhouse gas N2O.

  2. Dynamic phenomena and human activity in an artificial society (United States)

    Grabowski, A.; Kruszewska, N.; Kosiński, R. A.


    We study dynamic phenomena in a large social network of nearly 3×104 individuals who interact in the large virtual world of a massive multiplayer online role playing game. On the basis of a database received from the online game server, we examine the structure of the friendship network and human dynamics. To investigate the relation between networks of acquaintances in virtual and real worlds, we carried out a survey among the players. We show that, even though the virtual network did not develop as a growing graph of an underlying network of social acquaintances in the real world, it influences it. Furthermore we find very interesting scaling laws concerning human dynamics. Our research shows how long people are interested in a single task and how much time they devote to it. Surprisingly, exponent values in both cases are close to -1 . We calculate the activity of individuals, i.e., the relative time daily devoted to interactions with others in the artificial society. Our research shows that the distribution of activity is not uniform and is highly correlated with the degree of the node, and that such human activity has a significant influence on dynamic phenomena, e.g., epidemic spreading and rumor propagation, in complex networks. We find that spreading is accelerated (an epidemic) or decelerated (a rumor) as a result of superspreaders’ various behavior.

  3. Multiscale Modeling of Mesoscale and Interfacial Phenomena (United States)

    Petsev, Nikolai Dimitrov

    With rapidly emerging technologies that feature interfaces modified at the nanoscale, traditional macroscopic models are pushed to their limits to explain phenomena where molecular processes can play a key role. Often, such problems appear to defy explanation when treated with coarse-grained continuum models alone, yet remain prohibitively expensive from a molecular simulation perspective. A prominent example is surface nanobubbles: nanoscopic gaseous domains typically found on hydrophobic surfaces that have puzzled researchers for over two decades due to their unusually long lifetimes. We show how an entirely macroscopic, non-equilibrium model explains many of their anomalous properties, including their stability and abnormally small gas-side contact angles. From this purely transport perspective, we investigate how factors such as temperature and saturation affect nanobubbles, providing numerous experimentally testable predictions. However, recent work also emphasizes the relevance of molecular-scale phenomena that cannot be described in terms of bulk phases or pristine interfaces. This is true for nanobubbles as well, whose nanoscale heights may require molecular detail to capture the relevant physics, in particular near the bubble three-phase contact line. Therefore, there is a clear need for general ways to link molecular granularity and behavior with large-scale continuum models in the treatment of many interfacial problems. In light of this, we have developed a general set of simulation strategies that couple mesoscale particle-based continuum models to molecular regions simulated through conventional molecular dynamics (MD). In addition, we derived a transport model for binary mixtures that opens the possibility for a wide range of applications in biological and drug delivery problems, and is readily reconciled with our hybrid MD-continuum techniques. Approaches that couple multiple length scales for fluid mixtures are largely absent in the literature, and

  4. Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor and coherent climate anomalies in post-ENSO summer: A review (United States)

    Xie, Shang-Ping; Kosaka, Yu; Du, Yan; Hu, Kaiming; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Huang, Gang


    ENSO induces coherent climate anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific, but these anomalies outlast SST anomalies of the equatorial Pacific by a season, with major effects on the Asian summer monsoon. This review provides historical accounts of major milestones and synthesizes recent advances in the endeavor to understand summer variability over the Indo-Northwest Pacific region. Specifically, a large-scale anomalous anticyclone (AAC) is a recurrent pattern in post-El Ni˜no summers, spanning the tropical Northwest Pacific and North Indian oceans. Regarding the ocean memory that anchors the summer AAC, competing hypotheses emphasize either SST cooling in the easterly trade wind regime of the Northwest Pacific or SST warming in the westerly monsoon regime of the North Indian Ocean. Our synthesis reveals a coupled ocean-atmosphere mode that builds on both mechanisms in a two-stage evolution. In spring, when the northeast trades prevail, the AAC and Northwest Pacific cooling are coupled via wind-evaporation-SST feedback. The Northwest Pacific cooling persists to trigger a summer feedback that arises from the interaction of the AAC and North Indian Ocean warming, enabled by the westerly monsoon wind regime. This Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor (IPOC) effect explains why El Ni˜no stages its last act over the monsoonal Indo-Northwest Pacific and casts the Indian Ocean warming and AAC in leading roles. The IPOC displays interdecadal modulations by the ENSO variance cycle, significantly correlated with ENSO at the turn of the 20th century and after the 1970s, but not in between. Outstanding issues, including future climate projections, are also discussed.

  5. On the effects of ENSO on ocean biogeochemistry in the Northern Humboldt Current System (NHCS): A modeling study (United States)

    Mogollón, Rodrigo; Calil, Paulo H. R.


    The response of the ocean biogeochemistry to intense El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the Northern Humboldt Current System (NHCS) is assessed with an eddy-resolving coupled physical-biogeochemical model. El Niño (EN) 1997-1998 and La Niña (LN) 1999-2000 are well reproduced, inducing large spatial and temporal variability of biogeochemical properties at three coastal upwelling centers along the Peruvian coast (Chimbote 9.4°S, Callao 12.1°S, and Pisco 14°S). During EN, the upper limit of the Oxygen Minimum Zone (OMZ) experiences an offshore displacement of, approximately, 60 km and a deepening of, approximately, 150 m when compared to neutral-ENSO conditions, thus ventilating the upper 100 m of the water column. In contrast, during LN, the OMZ tongue outcrops over the continental shelf deoxygenating the water column at all locations. During LN, at the southernmost location, enhanced Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE) induces a leaking of the coastal nutrient inventory by horizontally advecting nitrogen from the nearshore region into the oligotrophic ocean. This leads to a reduction of biological production in the coastal zone. During EN, nitrification is an order of magnitude larger than denitrification in supplying the nitrite coastal pool. During LN peak, nitrification is reduced by 80%, while denitrification becomes equally important, evidencing a coupling between these two oxygen-dependent processes. The nitrogen removal due to suboxic activity is mostly controlled by the Anaerobic Ammonium Oxidation (Anammox) in the southern domain during neutral-ENSO conditions. Our results show that during EN, denitrification contributes with 60% of the total nitrogen removal. In contrast, Anammox contributes with 70% during LN. The outgassing of nitrous oxide (N2O), an intermediate product of denitrification, is reduced and enhanced during EN and LN, respectively, and it is strongly modulated by the spatiotemporal variability of oxygen in the environment.

  6. Air-sea fluxes for Hurricane Patricia (2015): Comparison with supertyphoon Haiyan (2013) and under different ENSO conditions (United States)

    Huang, Hsiao-Ching; Boucharel, Julien; Lin, I.-I.; Jin, Fei-Fei; Lien, Chun-Chi; Pun, Iam-Fei


    Hurricane Patricia formed on 20 October 2015 in the Eastern Pacific and, in less than 3 days, rapidly intensified from a Tropical Storm to a record-breaking hurricane with maximum sustained winds measured around 185 knots. It is almost 15 knots higher than 2013's supertyphoon Haiyan (the previous strongest tropical cyclone (TC) ever observed). This research focuses on analyzing the air-sea enthalpy flux conditions that contributed to Hurricane Patricia's rapid intensification, and comparing them to supertyphoon Haiyan's. Despite a stronger cooling effect, a higher enthalpy flux supply is found during Patricia, in particular due to warmer pre-TC sea surface temperature conditions. This resulted in larger temperature and humidity differences at the air-sea interface, contributing to larger air-sea enthalpy heat fluxes available for Patricia's growth (24% more than for Haiyan). In addition, air-sea fluxes simulations were performed for Hurricane Patricia under different climate conditions to assess specifically the impact of local and large-scale conditions on storm intensification associated with six different phases and types of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and long-term climatological summer condition. We found that the Eastern Pacific El Niño developing and decaying summers, and the Central Pacific El Niño developing summer are the three most favorable ENSO conditions for storm intensification. This still represents a 37% smaller flux supply than in October 2015, suggesting that Patricia extraordinary growth is not achievable under any of these typical ENSO conditions but rather the result of the exceptional environmental conditions associated with the buildup of the strongest El Niño ever recorded.

  7. Influencia del clima local y del ENSO en el crecimiento de abarco (Cariniana pyriformis), Chocó, Colombia


    Moreno Valoyes , Miyer Mersory


    Resumen: Éste estudio parte de la hipótesis de que los anillos de crecimiento del abarco (Cariniana pyriformis) son anuales y sensibles a la variabilidad climática del área de estudio, municipio Carmen del Darién, Chocó. Por tanto se planteó como objetivo estudiar la anatomía de los anillos de crecimiento del abarco, su frecuencia de formación y su relación con la temperatura, la precipitación y el fenómeno ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation). Los resultados indican que el abarco tiene anillo...

  8. Influence of ENSO and the NAO on terrestrial carbon uptake in the Texas-northern Mexico region (United States)

    Parazoo, Nicholas C.; Barnes, Elizabeth; Worden, John; Harper, Anna B.; Bowman, Kevin B.; Frankenberg, Christian; Wolf, Sebastian; Litvak, Marcy; Keenan, Trevor F.


    Climate extremes such as drought and heat waves can cause substantial reductions in terrestrial carbon uptake. Advancing projections of the carbon uptake response to future climate extremes depends on (1) identifying mechanistic links between the carbon cycle and atmospheric drivers, (2) detecting and attributing uptake changes, and (3) evaluating models of land response and atmospheric forcing. Here, we combine model simulations, remote sensing products, and ground observations to investigate the impact of climate variability on carbon uptake in the Texas-northern Mexico region. Specifically, we (1) examine the relationship between drought, carbon uptake, and variability of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) using the Joint UK Land-Environment Simulator (JULES) biosphere simulations from 1950-2012, (2) quantify changes in carbon uptake during record drought conditions in 2011, and (3) evaluate JULES carbon uptake and soil moisture in 2011 using observations from remote sensing and a network of flux towers in the region. Long-term simulations reveal systematic decreases in regional-scale carbon uptake during negative phases of ENSO and NAO, including amplified reductions of gross primary production (GPP) (-0.42 ± 0.18 Pg C yr-1) and net ecosystem production (NEP) (-0.14 ± 0.11 Pg C yr-1) during strong La Niña years. The 2011 megadrought caused some of the largest declines of GPP (-0.50 Pg C yr-1) and NEP (-0.23 Pg C yr-1) in our simulations. In 2011, consistent declines were found in observations, including high correlation of GPP and surface soil moisture (r = 0.82 ± 0.23, p = 0.012) in remote sensing-based products. These results suggest a large-scale response of carbon uptake to ENSO and NAO, and highlight a need to improve model predictions of ENSO and NAO in order to improve predictions of future impacts on the carbon cycle and the associated feedbacks to climate change.

  9. Novel deformation processes and microstructures involving ballistic penetrator formation and hypervelocity impact and penetration phenomena

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murr, L.E.; Pappu, S.; Garcia, E.P. [Univ. of Texas, El Paso, TX (United States)] [and others


    Light metallography and transmission electron microscopy techniques affording unique observations of microstructural issues in connection with a related set of novel, high-strain-rate deformation processes provide some fundamental insight into the following areas: shock-wave induced twinning, explosive welding, shaped charge development, explosively-formed penetrator phenomena, hypervelocity impact cratering in metal targets, and long, dense rod penetration/perforation of thick metal targets. Although shock wave phenomena are precursors in all these processes, deformation twins are rarely observed in the residual, process microstructures. In the case of hypervelocity impact craters, no deformation twins are observed in the crater-related target microstructures. Microbands that appear to be related to twins are observed. Melt-related phenomena are observed only in the explosive weld-wave interfaces. Jetting phenomena related to shaped charges and crater rim formation are dominated by dynamic recrystallization, which provides a mechanism for extreme plastic flow in the solid state. Differences observed between rod penetration of rolled homogeneous armor and Ti-alloy thick targets manifest themselves in distinct microstructural differences that also do not include melt phenomena.

  10. Localization Phenomena in Disordered Tantalum Films

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Kovaleva


    Full Text Available Using dc transport and wide-band spectroscopic ellipsometry techniques we study localization phenomena in highly disordered metallic β -Ta films grown by rf sputtering deposition. The dc transport study implies non-metallic behavior (d ρ /dT < 0, with negative temperature coefficient of resistivity (TCR. We found that as the absolute TCR value increased, specifying an elevated degree of disorder, the free charge carrier Drude response decreases, indicating the enhanced charge carrier localization. Moreover, we found that the pronounced changes occur at the extended spectral range, involving not only the Drude resonance, but also the higher-energy Lorentz bands, in evidence of the attendant electronic correlations. We propose that the charge carrier localization, or delocalization, is accompanied by the pronounced electronic band structure reconstruction due to many-body effects, which may be the key feature for understanding the physics of highly disordered metals.

  11. Noise-driven phenomena in hysteretic systems

    CERN Document Server

    Dimian, Mihai


    Noise-Driven Phenomena in Hysteretic Systems provides a general approach to nonlinear systems with hysteresis driven by noisy inputs, which leads to a unitary framework for the analysis of various stochastic aspects of hysteresis. This book includes integral, differential and algebraic models that are used to describe scalar and vector hysteretic nonlinearities originating from various areas of science and engineering. The universality of the authors approach is also reflected by the diversity of the models used to portray the input noise, from the classical Gaussian white noise to its impulsive forms, often encountered in economics and biological systems, and pink noise, ubiquitous in multi-stable electronic systems. The book is accompanied by HysterSoft© - a robust simulation environment designed to perform complex hysteresis modeling – that can be used by the reader to reproduce many of the results presented in the book as well as to research both disruptive and constructive effects of noise in hysteret...

  12. Heat Transfer Phenomena of Supercritical Fluids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krau, Carmen Isabella; Kuhn, Dietmar; Schulenberg, Thomas [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies, 76021 Karlsruhe (Germany)


    In concepts for supercritical water cooled reactors, the reactor core is cooled and moderated by water at supercritical pressures. The significant temperature dependence of the fluid properties of water requires an exact knowledge of the heat transfer mechanism to avoid fuel pin damages. Near the pseudo-critical point a deterioration of heat transfer might happen. Processes, that take place in this case, are not fully understood and are due to be examined systematically. In this paper a general overview on the properties of supercritical water is given, experimental observations of different authors will be reviewed in order to identify heat transfer phenomena and onset of occurrence. The conceptional design of a test rig to investigate heat transfer in the boundary layer will be discussed. Both, water and carbon dioxide, may serve as operating fluids. The loop, including instrumentation and safety devices, is shown and suitable measuring methods are described. (authors)

  13. Astrophysical disks Collective and Stochastic Phenomena

    CERN Document Server

    Fridman, Alexei M; Kovalenko, Ilya G


    The book deals w