Market Power in Power Markets: Evidence from Forward Prices of Electricity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Bent Jesper; Jensen, Thomas Elgaard; Mølgaard, Rune

We examine the forward market for electricity for indications of misuse of market power, using a unique data set on OTC price indications posted by Elsam A/S, the dominant producer in Western Denmark, which is one of the price areas under the Nordic power exchange Nord Pool. The Danish Competition...... Council (the regulatory government agency) has ruled that Elsam has used its dominant position to obtain excessive spot prices over a period from July 2003 through December 2006. We show that significant forward premia exist, and that they are related both to spot market volatility and misuse of market...... are consistent across forward premium regressions and structural forward pricing models....

Analysis of electricity price in Danish competitive electricity market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

2012-01-01

electricity markets in some ways, is chosen as the studied power system. 10 year actual data from the Danish competitive electricity market are collected and analyzed. The relationship among the electricity price (both the spot price and the regulation price), the consumption and the wind power generation...... in an electricity market is investigated in this paper. The spot price and the regulation price generally decrease when the wind power penetration in the power system increases or the consumption of the power system decreases. The statistical characteristics of the spot price and the regulation price for different...... consumption periods and wind power penetration are analyzed. Simulation results show that the findings of this paper are useful for wind power generation companies to make the optimal bidding strategy so that the imbalance cost of trading wind power on the electricity market could be reduced....

Advances in electric power and energy systems load and price forecasting

CERN Document Server

2017-01-01

A comprehensive review of state-of-the-art approaches to power systems forecasting from the most respected names in the field, internationally. Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems is the first book devoted exclusively to a subject of increasing urgency to power systems planning and operations. Written for practicing engineers, researchers, and post-grads concerned with power systems planning and forecasting, this book brings together contributions from many of the world’s foremost names in the field who address a range of critical issues, from forecasting power system load to power system pricing to post-storm service restoration times, river flow forecasting, and more. In a time of ever-increasing energy demands, mounting concerns over the environmental impacts of power generation, and the emergence of new, smart-grid technologies, electricity price forecasting has assumed a prominent role within both the academic and industrial ar nas. Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become nece...

Investments and price formation in a liberalized electric power market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morthorst, P.E.

2005-05-01

How will the electric power prices in the Nordic electric power market develop if the generation capacity in the coming 10 to 15 years is increased considerably? And what are the conditions for investors to initiate new investments in power plants? Briefly speaking - these are the issues for the project that is reported in this report. The basis for the project has been the Nordic electric power market model and its capability to handle the future extension of the necessary generating capacity. The main issue in the project has been a quantitative analysis of what the prices in the Nordic electric power market will be in the future, depending on the size of new investments in the power generating capacity. Using the Balmorel model, a basic scenario until the year 2020 is made which contains the present decisions about capacity extension only. Up to 2010 this basic scenario can be seen as a probable development. For the period 2010 to 2020, however, the calculations can primarily be seen as illustrations of how the prices may develop, provided that no further investments are made. Thus, for the period 2010 - 2020 it is a 'worst case' that has been analysed. In the basic scenario several cases for the year 2015 are analysed, among others the consequences of wet and dry years and an unusually cold winter. The project also analyses how the price development impacts the profitability of new investments in power capacity, depending on several exogenous events, like use of more wind power and the price on the carbon dioxide market. The analyses present three cases: 1) A single investor not owing other power plants, 2) a single investor owing a number of power plants in which case a new plant will compete with him self, 3) two competing investors investing in the same known power plants. In all cases investments are made in a natural gas combined cycle plant producing both electric power and heat. Furthermore, the investor's own possibility to time his investment has been

Wind power feed-in impact on electricity prices in Germany 2009-2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

François Benhmad

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Until quite recently no electricity system had faced the challenges associated with high penetrations of renewable energy sources (RES. In this paper, we carry out an empirical analysis for Germany, as a country with high penetration of wind energy, to investigate the well-known merit-order effect. Our main empirical findings suggest that the increasing share of wind power in-feed induces a decrease of electricity spot price level but an increase of spot prices volatility. Furthermore, the relationship between wind power and spot electricity prices can be strongly impacted by European electricity grids interconnection which behaves like a safety valve lowering volatility and limiting the price decrease. Therefore, the impacts of wind generated electricity on electricity spot markets are less clearly pronounced in interconnected systems.

Effect of nuclear power generation on the electricity price in Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Man Kee; Song, Kee Dong; Kim, Seung Soo; Kim, Sung Kee; Lee, Yung Kun

1994-12-01

The main purpose of this study is to estimate the effect of nuclear power generation on the electricity price by analysing electricity supply sector. The effects on electricity price changes are estimated in terms of following respects: - Restriction on the additional introduction of nuclear power plant. - CO 2 emission quantity control and carbon tax. A computer model by using Linear Programming optimization technique was also developed for these analyses. 10 figs, 12 tabs, 32 refs. (Author)

Use of Local Dynamic Electricity Prices for Indirect Control of DER Power Units

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nørgård, Per Bromand; Isleifsson, Fridrik Rafn

2013-01-01

the grid voltage. The algorithms generating the local prices are dynamically adjusted according to the actual realised responses to the dynamic prices. Results are presented from an adapted version of the control principle implemented and tested in DTUs experimental research power system, SYSLAB, including...... wind power, solar power, flexible load and electrical storage. The local power price generation is based on the actual Nord Pool DK2 Spot prices on hourly basis as the quasi-stationary global electricity price, and the local SYSLAB's power exchange with the national grid as basis for the dynamic price...... system. A challenge is to find a cheap, simple and robust way to requests the proper power regulation by the DER power units. The use of broadcasted, dynamic power prices and volunteer responses is one option. The paper presents a proposal for and an illustration of advanced generation of local, dynamic...

ELMO model predicts the price of electric power; ELMO-malli saehkoen hinnan ennustamiseksi

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Antila, H. [Electrowatt-Ekono Oy, Helsinki (Finland)

2001-07-01

Electrowatt-Ekono has developed a new model, by which it is possible to make long-term prognoses on the development of electricity prices in the Nordic Countries. The ELMO model can be used as an analysis service of the electricity markets and estimation of the profitability of long-term power distribution contracts with different scenarios. It can also be applied for calculation of technical and economical fundamentals for new power plants, and for estimation of the effects of different taxation models on the emissions of power generation. The model describes the whole power generation system, the power and heat consumption and transmission. The Finnish power generation system is based on the Electrowatt-Ekono's boiler database by combining different data elements. Calculation is based on the assumption that the Nordic power generation system is used optimally, and that the production costs are minimised. In practise the effectively operated electricity markets ensure the optimal use of the production system. The market area to be described consists of Finland and Sweden. The spot prices have long been the same. Norway has been treated as a separate market area. The most potential power generation system, the power consumption and the power transmission system are presumed for the target year during a normal rainfall situation. The basic scenario is calculated on the basis of the preconditional data. The calculation is carried out on hourly basis, which enables the estimation of the price variation of electric power between different times during the day and seasons. The system optimises the power generation on the basis of electricity and heat consumption curves and fuel prices. The result is an hourly limit price for electric power. Estimates are presented as standard form reports. Prices are presented as average annuals, in the seasonal base, and in hourly or daily basis for different seasons.

Electric power prices: variable tendency depending on the country

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1999-01-01

The deregulation of the electric power sector is very much in the news in most countries and at different stages. A study carried out by the national utility service (NUS) in 17 countries worldwide takes stock of the influence of deregulation on electric power prices. According to this study, the most important price increases are found in 4 non-European countries (Norway, South Africa, USA, New Zealand) while the most important decreases are found within Europe (Sweden 20%, Denmark 15.6%, Italy 12% and Germany 8%). In France the decrease of tariffs reaches only 3%. This short paper analyzes the evolution of prices in the different countries selected in the study, but no real tendency is outlined as the stage of competition is different in each country. (J.S.)

Is Power Production Flexibility a Substitute for Storability? Evidence from Electricity Futures Prices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kilic, M.; Huisman, R. [Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam (Netherlands)

2010-07-15

Electricity is not storable. As a consequence, electricity demand and supply need to be in balance at any moment in time as a shortage in production volume cannot be compensated with supply from inventories. However, if the installed power supply capacity is very flexible, variation in demand can be counterbalanced with flexible adjustment of production volumes. Therefore, supply flexibility can replace the role of inventory. In this paper, we question whether power production flexibility is a substitute for storability. To do so, we examine power futures prices from countries that differ in their power supply and test whether power futures prices contain information about expected future spot prices and risk premiums and examine whether futures prices from a market in which power supply is more flexible would lead to futures prices that are more in line with the theory of storage. We find the opposite; futures prices from markets with flexible power supply behave according to the expectations theory. The implicit view from futures prices is that flexibility is not a substitute for storability.

Is Power Production Flexibility a Substitute for Storability? Evidence from Electricity Futures Prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kilic, M.; Huisman, R.

2010-07-01

Electricity is not storable. As a consequence, electricity demand and supply need to be in balance at any moment in time as a shortage in production volume cannot be compensated with supply from inventories. However, if the installed power supply capacity is very flexible, variation in demand can be counterbalanced with flexible adjustment of production volumes. Therefore, supply flexibility can replace the role of inventory. In this paper, we question whether power production flexibility is a substitute for storability. To do so, we examine power futures prices from countries that differ in their power supply and test whether power futures prices contain information about expected future spot prices and risk premiums and examine whether futures prices from a market in which power supply is more flexible would lead to futures prices that are more in line with the theory of storage. We find the opposite; futures prices from markets with flexible power supply behave according to the expectations theory. The implicit view from futures prices is that flexibility is not a substitute for storability.

Study on Stochastic Optimal Electric Power Procurement Strategies with Uncertain Market Prices

Science.gov (United States)

Sakchai, Siripatanakulkhajorn; Saisho, Yuichi; Fujii, Yasumasa; Yamaji, Kenji

The player in deregulated electricity markets can be categorized into three groups of GENCO (Generator Companies), TRNASCO (Transmission Companies), DISCO (Distribution Companies). This research focuses on the role of Distribution Companies, which purchase electricity from market at randomly fluctuating prices, and provide it to their customers at given fixed prices. Therefore Distribution companies have to take the risk stemming from price fluctuation of electricity instead of the customers. This entails the necessity to develop a certain method to make an optimal strategy for electricity procurement. In such a circumstance, this research has the purpose for proposing the mathematical method based on stochastic dynamic programming to evaluate the value of a long-term bilateral contract of electricity trade, and also a project of combination of the bilateral contract and power generation with their own generators for procuring electric power in deregulated market.

PRICING ELECTRIC POWER UNDER A HYBRID WHOLESALE MECHANISM: EVALUATING THE TURKISH ELECTRICITY MARKET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hatice Karahan

2013-01-01

Full Text Available During the restructuring process, Turkish electricity sector has gone through significant changes both in wholesale and retail markets. In this framework, the Market Financial Settlement Mechanism established for handling market imbalances has become a spot market in time. So, it can be claimed that the wholesale electricity market in Turkey is a hybrid mechanism composed of bilateral contracts and the balancing market. On the other hand, the main target of liberalization program is providing consumers with affordable electric power. Hence, this study attempts to explore the link between retail tariffs for ineligible consumers and prices in the two wholesale mechanisms, in the period after the launch of the day-ahead market. Findings suggest that regulated wholesale prices are more effective in the determination of end-user prices, whereas unregulated ones might have a price reduction effect in case the free market dominates. However, the volatility in spot market prices implies that the sector would better continue with the hybrid mechanism for quite some time.

Carbon price instead of support schemes: wind power investments by the electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petitet, Marie; Finon, Dominique; Janssen, Tanguy

2014-10-01

In this paper we study the development of wind power by the electricity market without any usual support scheme which is aimed at subsidizing non mature renewables, with the sole incentive of a significant carbon price. Long term electricity market and investment decisions simulation by system dynamics modelling is used to trace the electricity generation mix evolution over a 20-year period in a pure thermal system. A range of stable carbon price, as a tax could be, is tested in order to determine the value above which wind power development by market forces becomes economically possible. Not only economic competitiveness in terms of cost price, but also profitability against traditional fossil fuel technologies are necessary for a market-driven development of wind power. Results stress that wind power is really profitable for investors only if the carbon price is very significantly higher than the price required for making wind power MWh's cost price competitive with CCGT and coal-fired plants on the simplistic basis of levelized costs. In this context, the market-driven development of wind power seems only possible if there is a strong commitment to climate policy, reflected by the preference for a stable and high carbon price rather than a fuzzy price of an emission trading scheme. Besides, results show that market-driven development of wind power would require a sky-rocketing carbon price if the initial technology mix includes a share of nuclear plants even with a moratorium on new nuclear development. (authors)

Consumption, price asymmetries, transmission congestion and market power in the Norwegian electricity market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mirza, Faisal Mehmood

2011-07-01

The results from this dissertation add to the ongoing debate in Norway if NordPool spot should shift from zonal price scheme to the nodal price scheme. Academically, the individual papers provide a number of theoretical frameworks that are helpful in analyzing electricity markets around the world. The PhD dissertation investigates price determination process in the Norwegian electricity market and evaluates if the market works at perfectly competitive level or producers exercise market power to drive prices away from their marginal cost of production. Using aggregate hourly electricity supply and demand data, the empirical analysis carried out in this dissertation leads to the following conclusions. 1. Market power at the generation level is not a major problem for the Norwegian electricity market. On average, when we consider the events of binding transmission capacity as exogenous, the average markup in economic terms is small and has not exceeded one percent. 2. Producers can use the information on available transmission capacity between different price areas in Norway and restrict their output to induce transmission congestion in their price area to exercise market power. Average markup during such instances has remained high at 20 percent. 3. Transmission capacity in Norway is not being optimally utilized as import capacity remains at its lowest level during the hours when southern Norway is generally a net importer of electricity, when compared to the rest of the hours of the day. 4. A segment of electricity retailers in the Norwegian electricity market exercises its market power by controlling the pass-through of price changes in the wholesale market to the retail market for variable price contract consumers. The pass-through is asymmetric, whereby cost increase is transmitted completely and quickly when compared to the case of cost decrease. 5.The Daylight saving time (Summer time) policy is helpful in ensuring energy efficiency. It results in electricity

Markov switching of the electricity supply curve and power prices dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Mari, Carlo; Cananà, Lucianna

2012-02-01

Regime-switching models seem to well capture the main features of power prices behavior in deregulated markets. In a recent paper, we have proposed an equilibrium methodology to derive electricity prices dynamics from the interplay between supply and demand in a stochastic environment. In particular, assuming that the supply function is described by a power law where the exponent is a two-state strictly positive Markov process, we derived a regime switching dynamics of power prices in which regime switches are induced by transitions between Markov states. In this paper, we provide a dynamical model to describe the random behavior of power prices where the only non-Brownian component of the motion is endogenously introduced by Markov transitions in the exponent of the electricity supply curve. In this context, the stochastic process driving the switching mechanism becomes observable, and we will show that the non-Brownian component of the dynamics induced by transitions from Markov states is responsible for jumps and spikes of very high magnitude. The empirical analysis performed on three Australian markets confirms that the proposed approach seems quite flexible and capable of incorporating the main features of power prices time-series, thus reproducing the first four moments of log-returns empirical distributions in a satisfactory way.

The role of price elastic demand in market power in the Nordic electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ravn, H.F.

2004-01-01

The paper discusses the modelling and analysis of market power and price elastic demand in the Nordic electricity spot market, Nordpool. The modelling of market power in the electricity sector must take into account a number of features that are specific to the electricity sector. First, electricity cannot be stored, but must be produced simultaneously with consumption. This aspect is, however, modified by the possibility of using hydro reservoirs as an indirect electricity storage. Second, the electricity transmission network plays an important role by breaking the market into several geographically separate sub-markets with different prices. Moreover, the specific bottlenecks may differ from hour to hour, according to the balance between supply and demand in each sub-market. Third, the demand side is presently characterised by very limited experience with hour to-hour-changes in electricity prices and very limited experience with short time adjustments of electricity consumption in response to changes in the electricity price. In the present paper three basic models for supply side competition on the Nordpool spot market will be presented, viz., perfect competition, Cournot competition and Supply Function Equilibrium. The models represent price and quantity settlement, including determination of price areas (bottle necks), in accordance with the way the Nordpool market functions. The models will incorporate electricity demand which is responsive to the electricity price. The paper describes the role of demand response for the determination of the electricity prices in each of the three supply side competition models. (au)

Seasonal variation of prices of sugar cane, ethanol and electric power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Melo, Carmem Ozana de; Silva, Gerson Henrique da; Bueno, Osmar de Carvalho; Esperancini, Maura Seiko Tsutsui

2010-01-01

The aim of this study was to assess the seasonal price of sugar cane, fuel alcohol (hydrated and anhydrous) and electricity tariffs as a way of aiding tool for optimization of energy generation, using biomass originating from cane sugar. Using the method of moving average centered was concluded that cane and electricity rates were close to seasonal average, with low range of prices, suggesting the non-occurrence of seasonal variation in prices. Unlike the seasonal indices of ethanol showed seasonal variation of prices with greater amplitude of seasonal index. Thus, the results suggest that the utilization of by-products of sugar cane to produce electrical power points to the prospect of reducing risks associated with variations in the price of ethanol, thereby contributing to greater stability and possibility to those involved in planning alcohol sector. (author)

Impact of optimal load response to real-time electricity price on power system constraints in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

2010-01-01

Since the hourly spot market price is available one day ahead in Denmark, the price could be transferred to the consumers and they may shift their loads from high price periods to the low price periods in order to save their energy costs. The optimal load response to a real-time electricity price...... and may represent the future of electricity markets in some ways, is chosen as the studied power system in this paper. A distribution system where wind power capacity is 126% of maximum loads is chosen as the study case. This paper presents a nonlinear load optimization method to real-time power price...... for demand side management in order to save the energy costs as much as possible. Simulation results show that the optimal load response to a real-time electricity price has some good impacts on power system constraints in a distribution system with high wind power penetrations....

Some models for electric power price clearing in liberalized market area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chogelja, Goran; Pavlov, Risto

2001-01-01

This paper presents some of the basic models for electrical energy price clearing in liberalized market area and competition on level of consumption and level of production. As an example the Amsterdam power exchange APX (spot market) is given and some of another types of markets and methodology for pricing are presented. In detal 'clearing pricing mechanism in day athead market' from the Amsterdam power exchange is presented as well as the methodology for market balancing and financial clearing. (Original)

Economic analysis of coal price-electricity price adjustment in China based on the CGE model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He, Y.X.; Zhang, S.L.; Yang, L.Y.; Wang, Y.J.; Wang, J.

2010-01-01

In recent years, coal price has risen rapidly, which has also brought a sharp increase in the expenditures of thermal power plants in China. Meantime, the power production price and power retail price have not been adjusted accordingly and a large number of thermal power plants have incurred losses. The power industry is a key industry in the national economy. As such, a thorough analysis and evaluation of the economic influence of the electricity price should be conducted before electricity price adjustment is carried out. This paper analyses the influence of coal price adjustment on the electric power industry, and the influence of electricity price adjustment on the macroeconomy in China based on computable general equilibrium models. The conclusions are as follows: (1) a coal price increase causes a rise in the cost of the electric power industry, but the influence gradually descends with increase in coal price; and (2) an electricity price increase has an adverse influence on the total output, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Electricity price increases have a contractionary effect on economic development and, consequently, electricity price policy making must consequently consider all factors to minimize their adverse influence.

Electric power transmission pricing regulations and efficiency

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goldoni, G.

1999-01-01

An efficient-price mechanism for electricity transmission is very hard to find, essentially because of the natural monopoly condition of the grid and its peculiar interactions with generation. The use of Optimal Power Flow Models is difficult to implement and could be easily distorted by strategical behaviour of generators. These models, however, could became a valuable efficiency-test for actual transmission charges and codes [it

Transmission pricing and stranded costs in the electric power industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baumol, W.J.; Sidak, J.G.

1995-09-01

Stranded costs are those costs that electric utilities are currently permitted to recover through their rates but whose recovery may be impeded or prevented by the advent of competition in the industry. Estimates of these costs run from the tens to the hundreds of billions of dollars. Should regulators permit utilities to recover stranded costs while they take steps to promote competition in the electric power industry. William Baumol and J. Gregory Sidak argue that answer to that question should be yes.The authors show that a transmission price, the price for sending electricity over the transmission grid, can be determined in a manner that is compatible with economic efficiency and clearly neutral in its effects upon all competitors in electricity generation. A correctly constructed regime of transmission pricing may in fact achieve the efficiency and equity goals that justify the recovery of stranded costs

The Effect of Wind Power on Electricity Prices in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jonsson, Tryggvi; Madsen, Henrik

This report is the result of a special course taken by the author at IMM DTU under the guidance of professor Henrik Madsen. The aim of the project is to analyze the influence wind energy has on the electricity spot price in Western Denmark and investigate how information about wind power production...... can be used to model the electricity spot price. Various model types were tried, giving very different performance. Here, only the models that performed best are discussed in order to keep focus on the projects goal....

POWERS. Simulation of pricing and investment decisions in a liberalized Dutch electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rijkers, F.A.M.; Battjes, J.J.; Janszen, F.H.A.; Kaag, M.

2001-02-01

With the liberalisation of the Dutch electricity market the electricity price will be divided into a network component and a commodity component. Further, liberalisation will change the determination of the commodity price. Before liberalisation the commodity price was centrally determined by the Sep (Samenwerkende Electriciteitsproductiebedrijven or Dutch Electricity Generating Board), but with the introduction of liberalisation prices will be determined by the market itself. To analyse the liberalised market a new model (POWERS) has been developed in which the new structure of the electricity market is incorporated and the increasing competition between energy companies is taken into account. An overview of the POWERS-model is presented in this report. The model is based on the system dynamics. This means that the decisions (regarding production volume, allocation of the plants, price setting) made by each market player is based on information from the previous period. Optimisation models that are based on the assumption of 'perfect foresight' do not apply to the electricity market. Currently, the model contains a detailed description of the production capacity of the current market players in the Netherlands. Among other purposes the model is suitable for determining an outlook of forward prices on the Dutch electricity market and for analysing the impacts of alternative strategies of the different market players on their profits. 4 refs

An impact assessment of electricity and emission allowances pricing in optimised expansion planning of power sector portfolios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tolis, Athanasios I.; Rentizelas, Athanasios A.

2011-01-01

Highlights: → The impact of electricity and CO 2 allowance pricing in power sector is researched. → A stochastic programming approach without recourse is used for the optimisation. → Higher electricity prices may be proportionally beneficial for the power system. → The CO 2 allowance prices may be inversely proportionate with the expected yields. → High CO 2 allowance prices are inhibitors for conventional technology projects. -- Abstract: The present work concerns a systematic investigation of power sector portfolios through discrete scenarios of electricity and CO 2 allowance prices. The analysis is performed for different prices, from regulated to completely deregulated markets, thus representing different electricity market policies. The modelling approach is based on a stochastic programming algorithm without recourse, used for the optimisation of power sector economics under multiple uncertainties. A sequential quadratic programming routine is applied for the entire investigation period whilst the time-dependent objective function is subject to various social and production constraints, usually confronted in power sectors. The analysis indicated the optimal capacity additions that should be annually ordered from each competitive technology in order to substantially improve both the economy and the sustainability of the system. It is confirmed that higher electricity prices lead to higher financial yields of power production, irrespective of the CO 2 allowance price level. Moreover, by following the proposed licensing planning, a medium-term reduction of CO 2 emissions per MW h by 30% might be possible. Interestingly, the combination of electricity prices subsidisation with high CO 2 allowance prices may provide favourable conditions for investors willing to engage on renewable energy markets.

Dynamics of global supply chain and electric power networks: Models, pricing analysis, and computations

Science.gov (United States)

Matsypura, Dmytro

In this dissertation, I develop a new theoretical framework for the modeling, pricing analysis, and computation of solutions to electric power supply chains with power generators, suppliers, transmission service providers, and the inclusion of consumer demands. In particular, I advocate the application of finite-dimensional variational inequality theory, projected dynamical systems theory, game theory, network theory, and other tools that have been recently proposed for the modeling and analysis of supply chain networks (cf. Nagurney (2006)) to electric power markets. This dissertation contributes to the extant literature on the modeling, analysis, and solution of supply chain networks, including global supply chains, in general, and electric power supply chains, in particular, in the following ways. It develops a theoretical framework for modeling, pricing analysis, and computation of electric power flows/transactions in electric power systems using the rationale for supply chain analysis. The models developed include both static and dynamic ones. The dissertation also adds a new dimension to the methodology of the theory of projected dynamical systems by proving that, irrespective of the speeds of adjustment, the equilibrium of the system remains the same. Finally, I include alternative fuel suppliers, along with their behavior into the supply chain modeling and analysis framework. This dissertation has strong practical implications. In an era in which technology and globalization, coupled with increasing risk and uncertainty, complicate electricity demand and supply within and between nations, the successful management of electric power systems and pricing become increasingly pressing topics with relevance not only for economic prosperity but also national security. This dissertation addresses such related topics by providing models, pricing tools, and algorithms for decentralized electric power supply chains. This dissertation is based heavily on the following

Electricity prices, large-scale renewable integration, and policy implications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kyritsis, Evangelos; Andersson, Jonas; Serletis, Apostolos

2017-01-01

This paper investigates the effects of intermittent solar and wind power generation on electricity price formation in Germany. We use daily data from 2010 to 2015, a period with profound modifications in the German electricity market, the most notable being the rapid integration of photovoltaic and wind power sources, as well as the phasing out of nuclear energy. In the context of a GARCH-in-Mean model, we show that both solar and wind power Granger cause electricity prices, that solar power generation reduces the volatility of electricity prices by scaling down the use of peak-load power plants, and that wind power generation increases the volatility of electricity prices by challenging electricity market flexibility. - Highlights: • We model the impact of solar and wind power generation on day-ahead electricity prices. • We discuss the different nature of renewables in relation to market design. • We explore the impact of renewables on the distributional properties of electricity prices. • Solar and wind reduce electricity prices but affect price volatility in the opposite way. • Solar decreases the probability of electricity price spikes, while wind increases it.

Structural and behavioural foundations of competitive electricity prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bunn, D.W.

2004-01-01

This chapter presents a basic introduction to price formation in the new electricity markets and examines power system economics and electricity market liberalisation. Topics discussed include wholesale electricity prices, the case of gas, the effect of the instantaneous nature of the electricity product, spot markets for electricity, and the ability of industrial companies to influence prices. Market fundamentals are reviewed, and institutional reform and strategic evolution are explored. British daily average power and gas prices, monthly forward prices on the British power and gas markets, seasonal demand profile, electricity demand UK 98/00, annual cost of each plant, price formation in 1997, and monthly demand and wholesale prices in England and Wales 1990-1998 are among the graphs provided

The price of electricity from private power producers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kahn, E.; Milne, A.; Kito, S.

1993-10-01

The long-term wholesale electricity market is becoming increasingly competitive. Bidding for power contracts has become a dominant form of competition in this sector. The prices which emerge from this process have not been documented and compared in a systematic framework. This paper introduces a method to make such comparisons and illustrates it on a small sample of projects. This results show a wide range of prices for what is essentially the same technology, gas-fired combined cycle generation. The price range seems greater than what could be explained by transmission cost differences between high and low cost regions. For the smaller sample of coal-fired projects, price variation is substantially less. Further data collection and analysis should be able to help isolate more clearly what market or cost factors are responsible for the observed variation.

Electricity prices and power derivatives: An affine jump diffusion approach with seasonal volatility and prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nomikos, Nikos; Soldatos, Orestes; Tamvakis, Michael

2005-01-01

Deregulation and reforms in the electricity markets over the recent years have led to increasing volatility of electricity prices since prices in the market are now determined by the fundamental rules of supply and demand. The existence of price risk in the market leads to the increasing necessity of hedging using derivatives and the subsequent development of models to price and hedge electricity derivatives. However the non-storable nature of the market implies that ''traditional'' approaches for the pricing and hedging of commodity derivatives based on the theory of storage are not applicable to electricity markets. In this paper we propose a two-factor jump diffusion model with seasonal components in order to capture the systematic pattern in the forward curve and the volatility term structure. Our model is then calibrated for the spot and the financial contracts in the Nord Pool Exchange using Kalman filter techniques. The proposed model has several advantages. First it enables to select the risk neutral measure that best fits the term structure hence capturing the most significant distributional characteristics of both spot and forwards. Second, it explains the seasonal risk premium, and finally it provides a fit for the Volatility Term Structure. The resulting model is very promising, providing a very useful Financial Engineering tool to market participants for Risk Hedging and Derivatives Pricing in the highly volatile Power Markets. (Author)

Forecasting Electricity Spot Prices Accounting for Wind Power Predictions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jónsson, Tryggvi; Pinson, Pierre; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

2013-01-01

A two-step methodology for forecasting of electricity spot prices is introduced, with focus on the impact of predicted system load and wind power generation. The nonlinear and nonstationary influence of these explanatory variables is accommodated in a first step based on a nonparametric and time...

Impacts from new 50 MW wind power plant - Bogdnaci on the price of electrical energy in Macedonia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Minovski, D.; Sarac, V.; Causevski, A.

2012-01-01

The paper presents the impact from the new planned wind power plant Bogdnaci on the price for the end users of electrical energy in Republic of Macedonia. In the next years, 50 MW wind power will be installed in the Macedonian electric power system. Production of electricity from wind power plants is unpredictable and of stochastic nature i.e. depends on the weather or the wind speed at the appropriate locations. Output of wind power plants is changing every minute, thus changing in the hourly level can be from 0 - 100%, even several times depending on the occurrence of winds. Changes in output of wind power plants, leads to increased demand for operational reserve in a power system. Preferential price of electrical energy from the wind power plants and increased operational reserve in the electric power system will have big impact on the final price of electrical energy in Republic of Macedonia. (Authors)

Analysis of relationships between hourly electricity price and load in deregulated real-time power markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lo, K.L.; Wu, Y.K.

2004-01-01

Risk management in the electric power industry involves measuring the risk for all instruments owned by a company. The value of many of these instruments depends directly on electricity prices. In theory, the wholesale price in a real-time market should reflect the short-run marginal cost. However, most markets are not perfectly competitive, therefore by understanding the degree of correlation between price and physical drivers, electric traders and consumers can manage their risk more effectively and efficiently. Market data from two power-pool architectures, both pre-2003 ISO-NE and Australia's NEM, have been studied. The dynamic character of electricity price is mean-reverting, and consists of intra-day and weekly variations, seasonal fluctuations, and instant jumps. Parts of them are affected by load demands. Hourly signals on both price and load are divided into deterministic and random components with a discrete Fourier transform algorithm. Next, the real-time price-load relationship for periodic and random signals is examined. In addition, time-varying volatility models are constructed on random price and random load with the GARCH model, and the correlation between them analysed. Volatility plays a critical role on evaluating option pricing and risk management. (author)

Essays on microgrids, asymmetric pricing and market power in electricity markets

Science.gov (United States)

Lo Prete, Chiara

This dissertation presents four studies of the electricity industry. The first and second essays use economic-engineering models to assess different aspects of microgrid penetration in regional electricity markets, while the last two studies contain empirical analyses aimed at evaluating the performance of wholesale electricity markets. Chapter 2 develops a framework to quantify economic, environmental, efficiency and reliability impacts of different power production scenarios in a regional system, focusing on the interaction of microgrids with the existing transmission and distribution grid. The setting is the regional network formed by Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands. The study presents simulations of power market outcomes under various policies and levels of microgrid penetration, and evaluates them using a diverse set of metrics. Chapter 3 studies the interaction between a microgrid and a regulated electric utility in a regional electricity market. I consider the interaction among the utility, the microgrid developer and consumers in the framework of cooperative game theory (assuming exchangeable utility), and use regional market models to simulate scenarios in which microgrid introduction may or may not be socially beneficial. Under the assumptions of this chapter, customer participation is essential to the development of socially beneficial microgrids, while the utility has little or no gain from it. Discussed incentives to avoid that utilities block microgrid entry include additional revenue drivers related to microgrid connection, decoupling and performance-based mechanisms targeted at service quality. When prices are below marginal costs of utility provided power, microgrid development may be socially beneficial, but unprofitable for microgrid customers and its developer. By imposing lower charges and higher remuneration for its services, the regulator could ensure that microgrid value is positive, without adversely impacting the utility

Tariffs on power supply and prices of electricity per 1st January 1994

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-04-01

The document gives a survey of the most usual types of tariffs connected with the Danish electric-power distribution companies and the prices, valid per January 1st, 1994, set by individual companies and also the cost to consumers of connection to the supply network. A survey of prices set by power plant administrators with regard to the distribution companies is also included in addition to a summary of the modes of calculation in connection with wind turbines not owned by the electricity companies and descriptions of models for calculations related to decentral and industrial plants. Local conditions such as structure, economy etc. must be taken into consideration when comparing prices set by companies in several different areas. (AB)

Nodal price volatility reduction and reliability enhancement of restructured power systems considering demand-price elasticity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goel, L.; Wu, Qiuwei; Wang, Peng

2008-01-01

With the development of restructured power systems, the conventional 'same for all customers' electricity price is getting replaced by nodal prices. Electricity prices will fluctuate with time and nodes. In restructured power systems, electricity demands will interact mutually with prices. Customers may shift some of their electricity consumption from time slots of high electricity prices to those of low electricity prices if there is a commensurate price incentive. The demand side load shift will influence nodal prices in return. This interaction between demand and price can be depicted using demand-price elasticity. This paper proposes an evaluation technique incorporating the impact of the demand-price elasticity on nodal prices, system reliability and nodal reliabilities of restructured power systems. In this technique, demand and price correlations are represented using the demand-price elasticity matrix which consists of self/cross-elasticity coefficients. Nodal prices are determined using optimal power flow (OPF). The OPF and customer damage functions (CDFs) are combined in the proposed reliability evaluation technique to assess the reliability enhancement of restructured power systems considering demand-price elasticity. The IEEE reliability test system (RTS) is simulated to illustrate the developed techniques. The simulation results show that demand-price elasticity reduces the nodal price volatility and improves both the system reliability and nodal reliabilities of restructured power systems. Demand-price elasticity can therefore be utilized as a possible efficient tool to reduce price volatility and to enhance the reliability of restructured power systems. (author)

Prices on electricity and transmission of electricity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

This publication contains data on prices of electric energy and transmission of electricity valid from 1 January 2003. The purpose is to illustrate the price changes on the electricity market in terms of prices for different customer categories. All companies holding network concessions for areas and all companies trading in electricity are included in this report, which is produced on an annual basis.The prices for transmission services 1 January 2003 were on the whole unchanged compared to the preceding year. For households the mean annual cost was SEK 882 for flats, SEK 4 335 for one- or two-family houses with electric heating and SEK 1 925 for those without electric heating. Electricity prices rose considerably on 1 January 2003 compared to the year before. The mean price per kWh for households with standard agreements was SEK 0.519 for deliveries to flats, SEK 0.447 for one- or two-family houses with electric heating and SEK 0.471 without electric heating. As a result, the mean annual cost increased by SEK 326 for flats, SEK 3 012 for one- or two-family houses with electric heating, and by SEK 774 for those houses without electric heating. The high costs of electricity may be explained in part by the development on the Nordic Power Exchange (Nord Pool), where the spot price increased by about 290 per cent during 2002 (1 USD is about 8 SEK)

Prices on electricity and transmission of electricity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-01-01

This publication contains data on prices of electric energy and transmission of electricity valid on 1 January 2002. The purpose is to illustrate the price changes on the electricity market in terms of prices for different customer categories. All companies holding network concessions for areas and all companies trading in electricity are included in this report, which is produced on an annual basis. The prices for transmission services 1 January 2002 were on the whole unchanged compared to the preceding year. For households the mean annual cost was SEK 856 for flats, SEK 4,194 one- or two-family houses with electric heating and SEK 1,881 without electric heating. (1 SEK ∼ 0.1 USD). Electricity prices rose considerably on 1 January 2002 compared to the year before. The mean price per kWh for households according to standard agreement was SEK 0.356 for deliveries to flats, SEK 0.296 for apartments in one- or two-family houses with electric heating and SEK 0.316 without electric heating. That means that the mean annual cost increased by SEK 171 for flats. For one- or two-family houses with electric heating, costs increased by SEK 1,424, and by SEK 379 for those houses without electric heating. The high costs of electricity may be explained in part by the development on the Nordic Power Exchange (Nord Pool), where the spot price increased by 75 per cent during 2001. The price development for household customers during 1996-2002 is shown in a diagram

The effect of the Fukushima nuclear accident on stock prices of electric power utilities in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kawashima, Shingo; Takeda, Fumiko

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station, which is owned by Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO), on the stock prices of the other electric power utilities in Japan. Because the other utilities were not directly damaged by the Fukushima nuclear accident, their stock price responses should reflect the change in investor perceptions on risk and return associated with nuclear power generation. Our first finding is that the stock prices of utilities that own nuclear power plants declined more sharply after the accident than did the stock prices of other electric power utilities. In contrast, investors did not seem to care about the risk that may arise from the use of the same type of nuclear power reactors as those at the Fukushima Daiichi station. We also observe an increase of both systematic and total risks in the post-Fukushima period, indicating that negative market reactions are not merely caused by one-time losses but by structural changes in society and regulation that could increase the costs of operating a nuclear power plant.

Price squeezes in electric power: The new Battle of Concord

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kwoka, J.E. Jr.

1992-01-01

The US Court of Appeals opinion in Town of Concord v. Boston Edison offers a vigorous statement of the position that in a regulated market, what may appear to be a price squeeze almost certainly cannot harm the competitive process and therefore should not be held to violate the antitrust laws. While not disputing the possibility of self-serving claims of price squeezes, this article shows that truly anticompetitive price squeezes may indeed occur in the electric power industry and cannot be so readily dismissed. This analysis begins with a brief factual and economic background on price squeezes, then addresses arguments made in Concord and elsewhere seeking to disprove their possibility, and demonstrate that sound economics and good policy require a more balanced approach

Application of the ant colony search algorithm to reactive power pricing in an open electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ketabi, Abbas; Alibabaee, Ahmad; Feuillet, R.

2010-01-01

Reactive power management is essential to transfer real energy and support power system security. Developing an accurate and feasible method for reactive power pricing is important in the electricity market. In conventional optimal power flow models the production cost of reactive power was ignored. In this paper, the production cost of reactive power and investment cost of capacitor banks were included into the objective function of the OPF problem. Then, using ant colony search algorithm, the optimal problem was solved. Marginal price theory was used for calculation of the cost of active and reactive power at each bus in competitive electric markets. Application of the proposed method on IEEE 14-bus system confirms its validity and effectiveness. Results from several case studies show clearly the effects of various factors on reactive power price. (author)

Electricity price modeling with stochastic time change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borovkova, Svetlana; Schmeck, Maren Diane

2017-01-01

In this paper, we develop a novel approach to electricity price modeling, based on the powerful technique of stochastic time change. This technique allows us to incorporate the characteristic features of electricity prices (such as seasonal volatility, time varying mean reversion and seasonally occurring price spikes) into the model in an elegant and economically justifiable way. The stochastic time change introduces stochastic as well as deterministic (e.g., seasonal) features in the price process' volatility and in the jump component. We specify the base process as a mean reverting jump diffusion and the time change as an absolutely continuous stochastic process with seasonal component. The activity rate of the stochastic time change can be related to the factors that influence supply and demand. Here we use the temperature as a proxy for the demand and hence, as the driving factor of the stochastic time change, and show that this choice leads to realistic price paths. We derive properties of the resulting price process and develop the model calibration procedure. We calibrate the model to the historical EEX power prices and apply it to generating realistic price paths by Monte Carlo simulations. We show that the simulated price process matches the distributional characteristics of the observed electricity prices in periods of both high and low demand. - Highlights: • We develop a novel approach to electricity price modeling, based on the powerful technique of stochastic time change. • We incorporate the characteristic features of electricity prices, such as seasonal volatility and spikes into the model. • We use the temperature as a proxy for the demand and hence, as the driving factor of the stochastic time change • We derive properties of the resulting price process and develop the model calibration procedure. • We calibrate the model to the historical EEX power prices and apply it to generating realistic price paths.

Electricity pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wijayatunga, P.D.C.

1994-01-01

Electricity pricing in most countries, especially in the developing world, has been determined by traditional accounting criteria where it raises revenue requirements to cover the operating costs and a return on past and future capital investments in possible power systems. The use of economic principles to improve the total economic efficiency in the electricity industry is discussed. Basic marginal cost theory, long run marginal costing (LRMC) cost categories and rating periods, marginal capacity costs, marginal energy costs, consumer costs, short run marginal costing (SRMC), marginal cost of fuel, marginal cost of network losses, market clearing price, value of unserved energy and network quality of supply cost are discussed

Electricity pricing model in thermal generating stations under deregulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reji, P.; Ashok, S.; Moideenkutty, K.M.

2007-01-01

In regulated public utilities with competitive power markets, deregulation has replaced the monopoly. Under the deregulated power market, the electricity price primarily depends on market mechanism and power demand. In this market, generators generally follow marginal pricing. Each generator fixes the electricity price based on their pricing strategy and it leads to more price volatility. This paper proposed a model to determine the electricity price considering all operational constraints of the plant and economic variables that influenced the price, for a thermal generating station under deregulation. The purpose of the model was to assist existing stations, investors in the power sector, regulatory authorities, transmission utilities, and new power generators in decision-making. The model could accommodate price volatility in the market and was based on performance incentive/penalty considering plant load factor, availability of the plant and peak/ off peak demand. The model was applied as a case study to a typical thermal utility in India to determine the electricity price. It was concluded that the case study of a thermal generating station in a deregulated environment showed that the electricity price mainly depended on the gross calorific value (GCV) of fuel, mode of operation, price of the fuel, and operating charges. 11 refs., 2 tabs., 1 fig

Adaptive short-term electricity price forecasting using artificial neural networks in the restructured power markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamin, H.Y.; Shahidehpour, S.M.; Li, Z.

2004-01-01

This paper proposes a comprehensive model for the adaptive short-term electricity price forecasting using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) in the restructured power markets. The model consists: price simulation, price forecasting, and performance analysis. The factors impacting the electricity price forecasting, including time factors, load factors, reserve factors, and historical price factor are discussed. We adopted ANN and proposed a new definition for the MAPE using the median to study the relationship between these factors and market price as well as the performance of the electricity price forecasting. The reserve factors are included to enhance the performance of the forecasting process. The proposed model handles the price spikes more efficiently due to considering the median instead of the average. The IEEE 118-bus system and California practical system are used to demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model. (author)

Analysis of the imbalance price scheme in the Spanish electricity market: A wind power test case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bueno-Lorenzo, Miriam; Moreno, M. Ángeles; Usaola, Julio

2013-01-01

This work investigates the interaction between wind power and electricity markets. The paper is focused on balancing markets pricing policies. The proposal of a new imbalance price scheme is included and conveniently evaluated. This proposed scheme tries to minimise the use of ancillary services to compensate for deviations in searching for a more efficient market design. The effectiveness of imbalance prices as market signals is also examined, and policy recommendations regarding imbalance services are discussed. Two test cases are included that analyse the participation of a wind power producer in the Spanish electricity market using a stochastic optimisation strategy. For this purpose, the uncertainty of the variables is considered, i.e., wind power production and prediction, intraday and imbalance prices. Test cases were run with real data for 10 months, and realistic results are presented along with a hypothetical test case. The regulation of the imbalance prices may not be adequate for the Spanish electricity market because an error drop is not sufficiently encouraged. Therefore, we suggest the application of a new imbalance price scheme, which includes an additional constraint. The conclusions of this paper can be assumed to be general policy recommendations

Pricing and Application of Electric Storage

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Jialin

Electric storage provides a vehicle to store power for future use. It contributes to the grids in multiple aspects. For instance, electric storage is a more effective approach to provide electricity ancillary services than conventional methods. Additionally, electric storage, especially fast-responding units, allows owners to implement high-frequency power transactions in settings such as the 5-min real-time trading market. Such high-frequency power trades were limited in the past. However, as technology advances, the power markets have evolved. For instance, the California Independent System Operator now supports the 5-min real-time trading and the hourly day-ahead ancillary services bidding. Existing valuation models of electric storage were not designed to accommodate these recent market developments. To fill this gap, I focus on the fast-responding grid-level electric storage that provides both the real-time trading and the day-ahead ancillary services bidding. To evaluate such an asset, I propose a Monte Carlo Simulation-based valuation model. The foundation of my model is simulations of power prices. This study develops a new simulation model of electric prices. It is worth noting that, unlike existing models, my proposed simulation model captures the dependency of the real-time markets on the day-ahead markets. Upon such simulations, this study investigates the pricing and the application of electric storage at a 5-min granularity. Essentially, my model is a Dynamic Programming system with both endogenous variables (i.e., the State-of-Charge of electric storage) and exogenous variables (i.e., power prices). My first numerical example is the valuation of a fictitious 4MWh battery. Similarly, my second example evaluates the application of two units of 2MWh batteries. By comparing these two experiments, I investigate the issues related to battery configurations, such as the impacts of splitting storage capability on the valuation of electric storage.

CO2 Allowance and Electricity Price Interaction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-07-01

With the introduction of CO2 emission constraints on power generators in the European Union, climate policy is starting to have notable effects on energy markets. This paper sheds light on the links between CO2 prices, electricity prices, and electricity costs to industry. It is based on a series of interviews with industrial and electricity stakeholders, as well as a rich literature seeking to estimate the exact effect of CO2 prices on electricity prices.

Reduction of regional disparities in electric power prices by spatially effective measures and planning in the Federal Republic of Germany

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wagner, G

1984-01-01

For a long time energy policy has been trying to reduce disparities in electric power prices by administrative and financial measures alone. Governmental planning was opening up new prospects when long-range fuel transport - and in particular the transport of hard coal by ship or by rail - was seeing a drop in prices in the mid seventies. Since fuel transport has been lower-priced than the transport of equivalent quantities of electric power, regional disparities in electric power prices which are due to the respective supply structures may be levelled by way of power plant site selection and power plant installation according to the specific regional loads. A decentralized expansion of power generation within reach of the consumer requires but a minimum of wiring. Structural price disparities are reduced in particular in regions importing electric power at excessive prices. In addition, costs may be saved by rational energy utilization consisting above all in the application of dual-purpose power plants and by the rationalization of network infrastuctures. The study abstracted is part of a research project of the Federal Research Institute for Land Studies and Planning. The project is dealing with concepts of decentralized electric power supply and space heating. It adds to already existing related studies which deal above all with the basic problems of scheduling and planning the contents and inner structure of decentralized energy concepts.

Controlling market power and price spikes in electricity networks: Demand-side bidding.

Science.gov (United States)

Rassenti, Stephen J; Smith, Vernon L; Wilson, Bart J

2003-03-04

In this article we report an experiment that examines how demand-side bidding can discipline generators in a market for electric power. First we develop a treatment without demand-side bidding; two large firms are allocated baseload and intermediate cost generators such that either firm might unilaterally withhold the capacity of its intermediate cost generators from the market to benefit from the supracompetitive prices that would result from only selling its baseload units. In a converse treatment, ownership of some of the intermediate cost generators is transferred from each of these firms to two other firms such that no one firm could unilaterally restrict output to spawn supracompetitive prices. Having established a well controlled data set with price spikes paralleling those observed in the naturally occurring economy, we also extend the design to include demand-side bidding. We find that demand-side bidding completely neutralizes the exercise of market power and eliminates price spikes even in the presence of structural market power.

The impact of the new investments in combined cycle gas turbine power plants on the Italian electricity price

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fontini, Fulvio; Paloscia, Lorenzo

2007-01-01

The paper measures the variation of the electricity price in Italy within the next 10 years due to the recent investment flow in combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power plants. It starts by investigating the possibility of decoupling gas and oil prices on the basis of hypotheses about the amount of existing resources and plausible technical substitutability assumptions of the latter with the former. In particular, it is supposed that, in the Italian market, natural gas will play a crucial role which oil has had in power generation. The price of electricity stemming from natural gas is then calculated taking into account the role of the power mix restructuring that derives from the CCGT power plants investments. Under reasonable assumptions, it is shown that a net reduction of at least 17% on the electric price is likely to be expected. (author)

A hybrid model for electricity spot prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anderson, C.L.D.

2004-01-01

Electricity prices were highly regulated prior to the deregulation of the electric power industry. Prices were predictable, allowing generators and wholesalers to calculate their production costs and revenues. With deregulation, electricity has become the most volatile of all commodities. Electricity must be consumed as soon as it is generated due to the inability to store it in any sufficient quantity. Economic uncertainty exists because the supply of electricity cannot shift as quickly as the demand, which is highly variable. When demand increases quickly, the price must respond. Therefore, price spikes occur that are orders of magnitude higher than the base electricity price. This paper presents a robust and realistic model for spot market electricity prices used to manage risk in volatile markets. The model is a hybrid of a top down data driven method commonly used for financial applications, and a bottom up system driven method commonly used in regulated electricity markets. The advantage of the model is that it incorporates primary system drivers and demonstrates their effects on final prices. The 4 primary modules of the model are: (1) a model for forced outages, (2) a model for maintenance outages, (3) an electrical load model, and (4) a price model which combines the results of the previous 3 models. The performance of each model was tested. The forced outage model is the first of its kind to simulate the system on an aggregate basis using Weibull distributions. The overall spot price model was calibrated to, and tested with, data from the electricity market in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland. The model performed well in simulated market prices and adapted readily to changing system conditions and new electricity markets. This study examined the pricing of derivative contracts on electrical power. It also compared a range of portfolio scenarios using a Cash Flow at Risk approach

A hybrid model for electricity spot prices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anderson, C.L.D.

2004-07-01

Electricity prices were highly regulated prior to the deregulation of the electric power industry. Prices were predictable, allowing generators and wholesalers to calculate their production costs and revenues. With deregulation, electricity has become the most volatile of all commodities. Electricity must be consumed as soon as it is generated due to the inability to store it in any sufficient quantity. Economic uncertainty exists because the supply of electricity cannot shift as quickly as the demand, which is highly variable. When demand increases quickly, the price must respond. Therefore, price spikes occur that are orders of magnitude higher than the base electricity price. This paper presents a robust and realistic model for spot market electricity prices used to manage risk in volatile markets. The model is a hybrid of a top down data driven method commonly used for financial applications, and a bottom up system driven method commonly used in regulated electricity markets. The advantage of the model is that it incorporates primary system drivers and demonstrates their effects on final prices. The 4 primary modules of the model are: (1) a model for forced outages, (2) a model for maintenance outages, (3) an electrical load model, and (4) a price model which combines the results of the previous 3 models. The performance of each model was tested. The forced outage model is the first of its kind to simulate the system on an aggregate basis using Weibull distributions. The overall spot price model was calibrated to, and tested with, data from the electricity market in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland. The model performed well in simulated market prices and adapted readily to changing system conditions and new electricity markets. This study examined the pricing of derivative contracts on electrical power. It also compared a range of portfolio scenarios using a Cash Flow at Risk approach.

Price sensitive electric power consumption in households. Final report; Prisfoelsomt elforbrug i husholdninger. Slutrapport

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Togeby, M.; Hay, C. (Ea Energianalyse A/S, Copenhagen (Denmark))

2009-08-15

To gain experience with electric power consumption in households based on demand response a demonstration project was carried out for households with electric heating. More than 500 households with high power consumption (over 15,000 kWh / yr) participated. Participating households were divided into four groups: 1) a group with automation equipment ('Devi') installed, which automatically controls the electric heating in relation to electricity price signals based on pre-defined standards, 2) a group with electronics equipment ('Electronic House Keeper') installed which can show price signals so that the participant himself can control the electric heating in relation thereto, 3) a group who daily received an e-mail or a text message indicating the fluctuations in electricity prices, so that the participant can control the electric heating in relation to the received information, 4) a control group who did not have knowledge of or participated in the experiment. The main results of the project are that consumption must be controlled through automation. A real impact of the experiment can only be seen for the Devi group, which had automation equipment installed, and not for the email / text message group who had to manually respond to price signals. There must be opportunities for higher degree of differentiation. The automatics should be coupled to multiple thermostats, and the control should be detailed, for example, with control based on the individual thermostat in each room. The thermal comfort is essential. The participants want to manage and move their electricity consumption directly via 'Electronic House Keeper'. They would welcome the opportunity to have all household appliances connected to the solution, making it possible to turn on / off these depending on prices. Good information and communication are crucial to participants' motivation. (ln)

Costing and pricing electric power reserve services. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirsch, L.D.; Rajaraman, R.; Clark, C.

1997-12-01

In the competitive electric power markets of the imminent future, reserves will be the second largest generation service in terms of their revenues and profits. Because reserves will be more widely traded than at present, they will be provided by the cheapest available sources regardless of the ownership of those sources. Price will determine the willingness of generators and consumers to provide reserve services; and it may also determine the willingness of reserve users to purchase reserve services. This report presents a methodology by which generation firms and merchant firms can profitably cost and price the reserve services that they offer. The methodology is generally applicable to a wide range of market structures that such firms might face

Carbon Pricing, Power Markets and the Competitiveness of Nuclear Power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-01-01

This study assesses the competitiveness of nuclear power against coal- and gas-fired power generation in liberalized electricity markets with either CO 2 trading or carbon taxes. It uses daily price data for electricity, gas, coal and carbon from 2005 to 2010, which encompasses the first years of the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), the world's foremost carbon trading framework. The study shows that even with modest carbon pricing, competition for new investment in electricity markets will take place between nuclear energy and gas-fired power generation, with coal-fired power struggling to be profitable. The data and analyses contained in this study provide a robust framework for assessing cost and investment issues in liberalized electricity markets with carbon pricing. (authors)

Optimal pricing of non-utility generated electric power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siddiqi, S.N.; Baughman, M.L.

1994-01-01

The importance of an optimal pricing policy for pricing non-utility generated power is pointed out in this paper. An optimal pricing policy leads to benefits for all concerned: the utility, industry, and the utility's other customers. In this paper, it is shown that reliability differentiated real-time pricing provides an optimal non-utility generated power pricing policy, from a societal welfare point of view. Firm capacity purchase, and hence an optimal price for purchasing firm capacity, are an integral part of this pricing policy. A case study shows that real-time pricing without firm capacity purchase results in improper investment decisions and higher costs for the system as a whole. Without explicit firm capacity purchase, the utility makes greater investment in capacity addition in order to meet its reliability criteria than is socially optimal. It is concluded that the non-utility generated power pricing policy presented in this paper and implied by reliability differentiated pricing policy results in social welfare-maximizing investment and operation decisions

Electricity Price Forecasting Based on AOSVR and Outlier Detection

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Zhou Dianmin; Gao Lin; Gao Feng

2005-01-01

Electricity price is of the first consideration for all the participants in electric power market and its characteristics are related to both market mechanism and variation in the behaviors of market participants. It is necessary to build a real-time price forecasting model with adaptive capability; and because there are outliers in the price data, they should be detected and filtrated in training the forecasting model by regression method. In view of these points, this paper presents an electricity price forecasting method based on accurate on-line support vector regression (AOSVR) and outlier detection. Numerical testing results show that the method is effective in forecasting the electricity prices in electric power market.

Price-based optimal control of power flow in electrical energy transmission networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jokic, A.; Lazar, M.; Bosch, van den P.P.J.; Bemporad, A.; Bicchi, A.; Buttazzo, G.

2007-01-01

This article presents a novel control scheme for achieving optimal power balancing and congestion control in electrical energy transmission networks via nodal prices. We develop an explicit controller that guarantees economically optimal steady-state operation while respecting all line flow

A model of market power in electricity industries subject to peak load pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arellano, Maria-Soledad; Serra, Pablo

2007-01-01

This paper studies the exercise of market power in price-regulated electricity industries under peak-load pricing and merit order dispatching, but where investment decisions are taken by independent generating companies. Within this context, we show that producers can exercise market power by under-investing in base-load capacity, compared to the welfare-maximizing configuration. We also show that when there is free entry with an exogenous fixed entry cost that is later sunk, more intense competition results in higher welfare but fewer firms. (author)

Power purchase prices for wind power IPPs (independent power producers) in Western Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kummert, C.

1995-01-01

In a number of European countries, renewable energy installations, especially wind turbines, are supported by paying high prices for their electricity. A survey of pricing practice should not be limited to an international comparison of price levels, however. The terms under which prices are fixed are important criteria for the assessment of costs and cost effectiveness of wind power projects. The conditions for electricity supply by independent wind power operators in Western Europe are therefore surveyed here. A comparison of the price levels is also shown. (author)

Effects of regulatory reforms in the electricity supply industry on electricity prices in developing countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagayama, Hiroaki

2007-01-01

Electric power sector reforms in the electricity supply industry have had an impact on industrial and household prices in developing countries in Latin America, the former Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Using original panel data for 83 countries during the period from 1985 to 2002, we examine how each policy instrument of the reform measures influenced electricity prices for countries in the above regions. We found that variables such as entry of independent power producers (IPP), unbundling of generation and transmission, establishment of a regulatory agency, and the introduction of a wholesale spot market have had a variety of impacts on electricity prices, some of which were not always consistent with expected results. The research findings suggest that neither unbundling nor introduction of a wholesale pool market on their own necessarily reduces the electric power price. In fact, contrary to expectations, there was a tendency for the price to rise. However, coexistent with an independent regulator, unbundling may work to reduce electricity prices. Privatization and the introduction of foreign IPP and retail competition lower electricity prices in some regions, but not all

Investments and price formation in a liberalized electric power market. Appendices; Investering og prisdannelse pae et liberaliseret elmarked. Bilag

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Morthorst, P.E.

2005-05-01

How will the electric power prices in the Nordic electric power market develop if the generation capacity in the coming 10 to 15 years is increased considerably? And what are the conditions for investors to initiate new investments in power plants? Briefly speaking - these are the issues for the project that is reported in this report. The basis for the project has been the Nordic electric power market model and its capability to handle the future extension of the necessary generating capacity. The main issue in the project has been a quantitative analysis of what the prices in the Nordic electric power market will be in the future, depending on the size of new investments in the power generating capacity. The appendix volume of the project report contains detailed descriptions of the three models that are used: the Balmorel model, the investment model, and the MARS model. The Balmorel model is a partial equilibrium model that describes a coherent, international electric power system and combined heat and power system. The model was developed in 2000 through international co-operation with the aim to have a model for analysing international aspects in the Baltic area. The investment model analyses and models the investment decisions in a liberalized Nordic electric power market. It is an exogenous model constructed outside the Balmorel model but uses the price pictures from the Balmorel model as input. MARS (MARket Simulation) is Eltra's (a Danish electric power transmission company) market model for simulating prices, production, demand and exchanges in the power market. The model covers the Nordic countries (Nord Pool) and Northern Germany. (LN)

Modelling prices in competitive electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bunn, D.W.

2004-04-01

Electricity markets are structurally different to other commodities, and the real-time dynamic balancing of the electricity network involves many external factors. Because of this, it is not a simple matter to transfer conventional models of financial time series analysis to wholesale electricity prices. The rationale for this compilation of chapters from international authors is, therefore, to provide econometric analysis of wholesale power markets around the world, to give greater understanding of their particular characteristics, and to assess the applicability of various methods of price modelling. Researchers and professionals in this sector will find the book an invaluable guide to the most important state-of-the-art modelling techniques which are converging to define the special approaches necessary for unravelling and forecasting the behaviour of electricity prices. It is a high-quality synthesis of the work of financial engineering, industrial economics and power systems analysis, as they relate to the behaviour of competitive electricity markets. (author)

Investments and price formation in a liberalized electric power market; Investering og prisdannelse pae et liberaliseret elmarked

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Morthorst, P.E.

2005-05-01

How will the electric power prices in the Nordic electric power market develop if the generation capacity in the coming 10 to 15 years is increased considerably? And what are the conditions for investors to initiate new investments in power plants? Briefly speaking - these are the issues for the project that is reported in this report. The basis for the project has been the Nordic electric power market model and its capability to handle the future extension of the necessary generating capacity. The main issue in the project has been a quantitative analysis of what the prices in the Nordic electric power market will be in the future, depending on the size of new investments in the power generating capacity. Using the Balmorel model, a basic scenario until the year 2020 is made which contains the present decisions about capacity extension only. Up to 2010 this basic scenario can be seen as a probable development. For the period 2010 to 2020, however, the calculations can primarily be seen as illustrations of how the prices may develop, provided that no further investments are made. Thus, for the period 2010 - 2020 it is a 'worst case' that has been analysed. In the basic scenario several cases for the year 2015 are analysed, among others the consequences of wet and dry years and an unusually cold winter. The project also analyses how the price development impacts the profitability of new investments in power capacity, depending on several exogenous events, like use of more wind power and the price on the carbon dioxide market. The analyses present three cases: 1) A single investor not owing other power plants, 2) a single investor owing a number of power plants in which case a new plant will compete with him self, 3) two competing investors investing in the same known power plants. In all cases investments are made in a natural gas combined cycle plant producing both electric power and heat. Furthermore, the investor's own possibility to time his

Price Forecasting of Electricity Markets in the Presence of a High Penetration of Wind Power Generators

OpenAIRE

Saber Talari; Miadreza Shafie-khah; Gerardo J. Osório; Fei Wang; Alireza Heidari; João P. S. Catalão

2017-01-01

Price forecasting plays a vital role in the day-ahead markets. Once sellers and buyers access an accurate price forecasting, managing the economic risk can be conducted appropriately through offering or bidding suitable prices. In networks with high wind power penetration, the electricity price is influenced by wind energy; therefore, price forecasting can be more complicated. This paper proposes a novel hybrid approach for price forecasting of day-ahead markets, with high penetration of wind...

Electricity: French industrialists tied up by prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jemain, A.

2004-01-01

With more than 50% of increase in 3 years, the electricity prices reach summits in France. The industrialists, initially enthusiastic over the promises of the liberalization of European energy markets, are today particularly disappointed and denounce an irrational logic. The reasons of these inflationary prices are explained in this article: alignment of electricity prices with respect to the prices of the less efficient producers (oil and gas power plants), lack of peak production means which induces prices volatility, a commodity market model unsuitable to electricity specificities, lack of transparency in the establishment of reference prices, no margins for negotiation, and will of Electricite de France (EdF) to restore its financial status. (J.S.)

Evaluation on Influence of Unstable Primary-Energy Price in a Deregulated Electric Power Market—Analysis based on a simulation model approach—

Science.gov (United States)

Maitani, Tatsuyuki; Tezuka, Tetsuo

The electric power market of Japan has been locally monopolized for a long time. But, like many countries, Japan is moving forward with the deregulation of its electric power industry so that any power generation company could sell electric power in the market. The power price, however, will fluctuate inevitably to balance the power supply and demand. A new appropriate market design is indispensable when introducing new market mechanisms in the electric power market to avoid undesirable results of the market. The first stage of deregulation will be the competition between an existing large-scaled power utility and a new power generation company. In this paper we have investigated the wholesale market with competition of these two power companies based on a simulation model approach. Under the competitive situation the effects of exogenous disturbance may bring serious results and we estimated the influence on the market when the price of fossil fuel rises. The conclusion of this study is that several types of Nash equilibriums have been found in the market: the larger the new power generation company becomes, the higher the electricity price under the Nash equilibriums rises. Because of the difference in their structure of generation capacity, the existing large-scaled power utility gets more profit while the new power generation company loses its profit when the price of fossil fuel rises.

Carbon pricing and the competitiveness of nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keppler, J.H.; Marcantonini, C.

2011-01-01

A recent NEA study entitled Carbon Pricing, Power Markets and the Competitiveness of Nuclear Energy assesses the competitiveness of nuclear power against coal- and gas-fired power generation in liberalised electricity markets with either CO 2 trading or carbon taxes. It uses daily price data for electricity, gas, coal and carbon from 2005 to 2010, which encompasses the first years of the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), the world's foremost carbon trading framework. The study shows that even with modest carbon pricing, competition for new investment in electricity markets will take place between nuclear energy and gas-fired power generation, with coal-fired power struggling to be profitable. The data and analyses contained in the study provide a robust framework for assessing cost and investment issues in liberalised electricity markets with carbon pricing, even in the post-Fukushima context. A summary of the publication main elements is provided in this paper

Electricity Prices, Large-Scale Renewable Integration, and Policy Implications

OpenAIRE

Kyritsis, Evangelos; Andersson, Jonas; Serletis, Apostolos

2016-01-01

This paper investigates the effects of intermittent solar and wind power generation on electricity price formation in Germany. We use daily data from 2010 to 2015, a period with profound modifications in the German electricity market, the most notable being the rapid integration of photovoltaic and wind power sources, as well as the phasing out of nuclear energy. In the context of a GARCH-in-Mean model, we show that both solar and wind power Granger cause electricity prices, that solar power ...

The Tripartite Game Model for Electricity Pricing in Consideration of the Power Quality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tianlei Zang

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Under the Energy Internet concept the distribution and management of resources in the electricity market have been gradually transiting from a centralized pattern to a decentralized pattern. Correspondingly, the methodological model for the analysis of economic behaviors needs to be upgraded too. Based on the idea of non-cooperative game theory, this paper puts forward a tripartite game model for electricity pricing in consideration of the power quality, which is applicable to the electricity market under the Energy Internet with distributed generation, including the State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC, generating companies (GENCOs and the marketers which correspond to the regional power-retailing companies. Then, the sequential quadratic programming based on the quasi-Newton method is given to solve the game model. Finally, four sets of tests with different game factors are carried out to verify the validity and feasibility of the proposed model and algorithm. The SGCC price, the cost and the number of GENCOs and the cross-regional environment are considered in each test, respectively. The results show that this model can adapt well to the various conditions.

Price Forecasting of Electricity Markets in the Presence of a High Penetration of Wind Power Generators

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saber Talari

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Price forecasting plays a vital role in the day-ahead markets. Once sellers and buyers access an accurate price forecasting, managing the economic risk can be conducted appropriately through offering or bidding suitable prices. In networks with high wind power penetration, the electricity price is influenced by wind energy; therefore, price forecasting can be more complicated. This paper proposes a novel hybrid approach for price forecasting of day-ahead markets, with high penetration of wind generators based on Wavelet transform, bivariate Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA method and Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFN. To this end, a weighted time series for wind dominated power systems is calculated and added to a bivariate ARIMA model along with the price time series. Moreover, RBFN is applied as a tool to correct the estimation error, and particle swarm optimization (PSO is used to optimize the structure and adapt the RBFN to the particular training set. This method is evaluated on the Spanish electricity market, which shows the efficiency of this approach. This method has less error compared with other methods especially when it considers the effects of large-scale wind generators.

Spikes and memory in (Nord Pool) electricity price spot prices

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Proietti, Tomasso; Haldrup, Niels; Knapik, Oskar

Electricity spot prices are subject to transitory sharp movements commonly referred to as spikes. The paper aims at assessing their effects on model based inferences and predictions, with reference to the Nord Pool power exchange. We identify a spike as a price value which deviates substantially...

Price formation and market power in the German wholesale electricity market in 2006

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weigt, Hannes; Hirschhausen, Christian von

2008-01-01

From 2002 to 2006, German wholesale electricity prices more than doubled. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the price components in 2006 in order to identify the factors responsible for the increase. We develop a competitive benchmark model, taking into account power plant characteristics, fuel and CO 2 -allowance prices, wind generation, cross-border flows, unit commitment, and startup conditions, to estimate the difference between generation costs and observed market prices for every hour in 2006. We find that prices at the German wholesale market (European Energy Exchange - EEX) are above competitive levels for a large fraction of the observations. We verify the robustness of the results by carrying out sensitivity analyses. We also address the issue of revenue adequacy. (author)

A market power model with price caps and compact DC power flow constraints

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zuwei Yu [Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN (United States). School of Industrial Engineering

2003-05-01

This paper presents a spatial gaming model with price caps for deregulated electricity markets. There has been heated debate on price caps that have been enforced in deregulated electricity markets. Opponents argue that price caps may send wrong economic signals while advocates argue that price caps are good for damping market power. This paper does not intend to take a stand in the argument. Given the fact that price caps are enforced in several deregulated regional electricity markets in the US, a logical step is to reflect this reality in gaining modeling. However, current gaining models have not included any price cap formulation. This paper is the first one to address the issue. DC power flow equations are used for representing the spatial nature of an electrical network. An algorithm is proposed to find a generalized Nash equilibrium under the enforcement of price caps based on the Kuhn-Tucker Vector Optimization Theorem. Case studies show the successful application of the model. The conclusion is that market power impact can be reduced under appropriate price caps. (author)

Market power and price structure in the electricity market; Markedsmakt og prisstruktur i kraftmarkedet

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Halseth, Arve

1998-12-01

This report evaluates the importance of market power on price formation and price structure in the Norwegian electricity market. A simple oligopoly model is used to show how the equilibrium is affected by demand, distribution of capacity between two major suppliers, and marginal production costs, given that the suppliers do not cooperate. Two important conclusions can be drawn from the calculations: (1) a high concentration on the supply side does not necessarily lead to essential market power, and (2) market power may contribute to increased stability and predictability. The main conclusion is that market power can be positive for society and it is not uniquely associated with a high concentration on the supply side. If emphasis is placed on stability and predictability, market power should not be defined as deviation from prices under free competition but rather should be related to the requirement that the suppliers should not obtain unreasonably high profit with unreasonably little utilization of capacity. 10 refs., 11 figs.

The effect of power distribution privatization on electricity prices in Turkey: Has liberalization served the purpose?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karahan, Hatice; Toptas, Mehmet

2013-01-01

Various electricity reforms have been adopted by a number of countries within the last 2 decades. Turkey, as one of those countries, has restructured its electricity market and intensively privatized the distribution companies. As one of the main targets of the liberalization efforts in the sector was announced to be reduced consumer prices, it is a matter of interest to look at the related developments after privatizations. Hence, this study attempts to explore the impact of power distribution privatization in Turkey on the national end-user electricity prices. Results of the analysis suggest that privatization of electricity distribution companies has not yielded the expected retail price declines within the first 4 years of the program. Whereas wholesale tariffs exhibit a reduction in the rate of 10%, retail tariffs show an increase of 5.9% within the period in question. Besides, the unstable patterns of the two tariffs imply that the market is not yet ready for the automatic pricing mechanism planned to be implemented based on a cost-reflective methodology. Therefore, results indicate that the factors behind the unsatisfactory outcomes of the program should be explored in order for the privatization efforts in the Turkish electricity distribution market to serve the purpose. - Highlights: • Privatization in electricity distribution has not reduced the retail prices in transition period in Turkey. • Changes in retail prices do not harmonize with those in wholesale prices in the electricity market. • The cost reflectiveness of the pricing system in the market is questionable. • The market does not seem to be ready yet for the automatic pricing mechanism. • The increase in distribution tariffs is not compatible with the targets of the liberalization program adopted for the Turkish electricity market

Modeling spot markets for electricity and pricing electricity derivatives

Science.gov (United States)

Ning, Yumei

Spot prices for electricity have been very volatile with dramatic price spikes occurring in restructured market. The task of forecasting electricity prices and managing price risk presents a new challenge for market players. The objectives of this dissertation are: (1) to develop a stochastic model of price behavior and predict price spikes; (2) to examine the effect of weather forecasts on forecasted prices; (3) to price electricity options and value generation capacity. The volatile behavior of prices can be represented by a stochastic regime-switching model. In the model, the means of the high-price and low-price regimes and the probabilities of switching from one regime to the other are specified as functions of daily peak load. The probability of switching to the high-price regime is positively related to load, but is still not high enough at the highest loads to predict price spikes accurately. An application of this model shows how the structure of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland market changed when market-based offers were allowed, resulting in higher price spikes. An ARIMA model including temperature, seasonal, and weekly effects is estimated to forecast daily peak load. Forecasts of load under different assumptions about weather patterns are used to predict changes of price behavior given the regime-switching model of prices. Results show that the range of temperature forecasts from a normal summer to an extremely warm summer cause relatively small increases in temperature (+1.5%) and load (+3.0%). In contrast, the increases in prices are large (+20%). The conclusion is that the seasonal outlook forecasts provided by NOAA are potentially valuable for predicting prices in electricity markets. The traditional option models, based on Geometric Brownian Motion are not appropriate for electricity prices. An option model using the regime-switching framework is developed to value a European call option. The model includes volatility risk and allows changes

Regulation of electricity prices?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mihok, P.

2006-01-01

In this paper author deals with the regulation of electricity prices in the Slovak Republic. Author contests the social policy of the government through doped prices of electricity. Two thirds of electricity is generated in nuclear power plants in Slovakia. Hence, it is necessary to focus on the solution of problem of nuclear waste. In 2004 Ministry of Economy stated, that the deficit in nuclear fund, from which the country have to fully cover the costs of liquidation and final disposal of nuclear waste, is estimated in the amount of around 89 billion Slovak crowns (≅ 3.7 billion $). From it, so called historical deficit, which originated because of late foundation of fund, represents officially 15 billion Slovak crowns (≅ 0.62 billion $). In Slovakia exists the real risk, that by maintenance of present state by creation and draw of the fund, it will be possible to ensure only 39 per cent of financial sources necessary for full financial handling of the back part of nuclear energetic. Even though the Ministry of Economy in connection with privatisation of Slovenske elektrarne designed to decrease the transfers of operators of nuclear power plants into nuclear fund. In 2006 the Parliament decreased by the law the level of gains of the fund from sale of nuclear electricity (the second from two components of the gains of the fund) from 6.8 to 5.95 per cent from annual revenues. So the tax of forced reduction of the price of nuclear electricity will be represented by loading of the further generations

Pricing offshore wind power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levitt, Andrew C.; Kempton, Willett; Smith, Aaron P.; Musial, Walt; Firestone, Jeremy

2011-01-01

Offshore wind offers a very large clean power resource, but electricity from the first US offshore wind contracts is costlier than current regional wholesale electricity prices. To better understand the factors that drive these costs, we develop a pro-forma cash flow model to calculate two results: the levelized cost of energy, and the breakeven price required for financial viability. We then determine input values based on our analysis of capital markets and of 35 operating and planned projects in Europe, China, and the United States. The model is run for a range of inputs appropriate to US policies, electricity markets, and capital markets to assess how changes in policy incentives, project inputs, and financial structure affect the breakeven price of offshore wind power. The model and documentation are made publicly available. - Highlights: → We calculate the Breakeven Price (BP) required to deploy offshore wind plants. → We determine values for cost drivers and review incentives structures in the US. → We develop 3 scenarios using today's technology but varying in industry experience. → BP differs widely by Cost Scenario; relative policy effectiveness varies by stage. → The low-range BP is below regional market values in the Northeast United States.

A method for short term electricity spot price forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koreneff, G.; Seppaelae, A.; Lehtonen, M.; Kekkonen, V.; Laitinen, E.; Haekli, J.; Antila, E.

1998-01-01

In Finland, the electricity market was de-regulated in November 1995. For the electricity purchase of power companies this has caused big changes, since the old tariff based contracts of bulk power supply have been replaced by negotiated bilateral short term contracts and by power purchase from the spot market. In the spot market, in turn, there are at the present two strong actors: The electricity exchange of Finland and the Nordic power pool which is run by the Swedish and Norwegian companies. Today, the power companies in Finland have short term trade with both of the electricity exchanges. The aim of this chapter is to present methods for spot price forecasting in the electricity exchange. The main focus is given to the Finnish circumstances. In the beginning of the presentation, the practices of the electricity exchange of Finland are described, and a brief presentation is given on the different contracts, or electricity products, available in the spot market. For comparison, the practices of the Nordic electricity exchange are also outlined. A time series technique for spot price forecasting is presented. The structure of the model is presented, and its validity is tested using real case data obtained from the Finnish power market. The spot price forecasting model is a part of a computer system for distribution energy management (DEM) in a de-regulated power market

A method for short term electricity spot price forecasting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koreneff, G; Seppaelae, A; Lehtonen, M; Kekkonen, V [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland); Laitinen, E; Haekli, J [Vaasa Univ. (Finland); Antila, E [ABB Transmit Oy (Finland)

1998-08-01

In Finland, the electricity market was de-regulated in November 1995. For the electricity purchase of power companies this has caused big changes, since the old tariff based contracts of bulk power supply have been replaced by negotiated bilateral short term contracts and by power purchase from the spot market. In the spot market, in turn, there are at the present two strong actors: The electricity exchange of Finland and the Nordic power pool which is run by the Swedish and Norwegian companies. Today, the power companies in Finland have short term trade with both of the electricity exchanges. The aim of this chapter is to present methods for spot price forecasting in the electricity exchange. The main focus is given to the Finnish circumstances. In the beginning of the presentation, the practices of the electricity exchange of Finland are described, and a brief presentation is given on the different contracts, or electricity products, available in the spot market. For comparison, the practices of the Nordic electricity exchange are also outlined. A time series technique for spot price forecasting is presented. The structure of the model is presented, and its validity is tested using real case data obtained from the Finnish power market. The spot price forecasting model is a part of a computer system for distribution energy management (DEM) in a de-regulated power market

High Penetrated Wind Farm Impacts on the Electricity Price

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Haji Bashi, Mazaher; Yousefi, G. R.; Bak, Claus Leth

2016-01-01

of the high penetrated wind farm integration into electricity markets. Then, stochastic programming approach is employed to compare the volume of trades for a typical wind farm in a high and low wind penetrated market. Although increasing price spikes and volatility was reported in the literature......Energy trading policies, intermittency of wind farm output power, low marginal cost of the production, are the key factors that cause the wind farms to be effective on the electricity price. In this paper, the Danish electricity market is studied as a part of Nord Pool. Considering the completely...... fossil fuel free overview in Danish energy policies, and the currently great share of wind power (more than 100% for some hours) in supplying the load, it is an interesting benchmark for the future electricity markets. Negative prices, price spikes, and price volatility are considered as the main effects...

Research on the pricing system of online nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu Dan

2010-01-01

National Development and Reform Commission Issues 'Long-term Nuclear Power Development Plan (2005-2020)' in October, 2007. It is the milestone for great development of the nuclear power plant. By the end of the first half of 2009, the nuclear power companies, mainly leading by CNNC and CGNPC, are busy in expanding the new project investment scale of the nuclear power. They gradually initialize the enormous nuclear investment in Zhejiang, Liaoning, Shandong, Guangxi Province and some other place. Along with the development of the nuclear plant and the reformation of the electricity price, the online electricity price of the nuclear power plant will likely be revised. How long will the price policy of 'One to one price' for each type of plant be hold? How will the online electricity price be set in the future? What kind of theories will be followed in the new pricing policy? And what kind of influence will it have on the operating and constructing nuclear power plants? All these will be the problem to the nuclear power plant. There are a lot of uncertainties in front of the nuclear power enterprise in the future. The article analyzes the cost structure of the nuclear power enterprise. Based on the price theory of the market economy, and after benchmarking with the coal power and some other industries, the article studies the future pricing policy of the nuclear power enterprise. And the article analyzes the future management risk of the nuclear power enterprise after the pricing policy reformation. And through the management improvement, the nuclear power company could response effectively to the price regulation, and minimize the uncertainty caused by the pricing policy reformation to the enterprise operation and management. (author)

Inquiry report about electricity prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-10-01

In March 2004, the French minister of economy, finances and industry put in the hands of the general inspection of finances and of the general council of mines, the mission to carry out an expertise about the evolution of electricity prices since February 2000, date of the progressive opening of the electricity market to competition. Since 2003, many customers, in particular the big power consuming industries, have started to worry in front of the increase of electricity prices. The conclusions of the expertise represent a contribution to the analysis of the operation of electricity markets and will participate to the improvement of this operation. This document comprises the synthesis of the report given to the minister and the full report. (J.S.)

Real-time Pricing in Power Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boom, Anette; Schwenen, Sebastian

We examine welfare e ects of real-time pricing in electricity markets. Before stochastic energy demand is known, competitive retailers contract with nal consumers who exogenously do not have real-time meters. After demand is realized, two electricity generators compete in a uniform price auction...... to satisfy demand from retailers acting on behalf of subscribed customers and from consumers with real-time meters. Increasing the number of consumers on real-time pricing does not always increase welfare since risk-averse consumers dislike uncertain and high prices arising through market power...

Real-time Pricing in Power Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boom, Anette; Schwenen, Sebastian

We examine welfare eects of real-time pricing in electricity markets. Before stochastic energy demand is known, competitive retailers contract with nal consumers who exogenously do not have real-time meters. After demand is realized, two electricity generators compete in a uniform price auction...... to satisfy demand from retailers acting on behalf of subscribed customers and from consumers with real-time meters. Increasing the number of consumers on real-time pricing does not always increase welfare since risk-averse consumers dislike uncertain and high prices arising through market power...

The impact of wind power on APX day-ahead electricity prices in the Netherlands VVM-Intermittency project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nieuwenhout, F.D.J. [ECN Policy Studies, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Brand, A.J. [ECN Wind Energy, Petten (Netherlands)

2013-02-15

A detailed analysis was conducted to assess to what extent availability of wind energy has influenced day-ahead electricity prices in the Netherlands over the period 2006-2009. With a meteorological model, time series of day-ahead wind forecasts were generated, and these were compared with APX-ENDEX day-ahead market prices. Wind energy contributes to only 4% of electricity generation in the Netherlands, but was found to depress average day-ahead market prices by about 5%. With the help of the bid curves on the APX-ENDEX day-ahead market for 2009, a model was developed to assess the impact of increasing levels of wind generation on power prices in the Netherlands. One of the main findings is that the future impact on prices will be less than in the past. With an increase of installed wind capacity from 2200 MW to 6000 MW, average day-ahead prices are expected to be depressed by an additional 6% in case no additional conventional generation is assumed. Taking into account existing government policy on wind and ongoing investments in new conventional power plants, prices in 2016 will be only 3% lower.

The impact of power market structure on CO2 cost pass-through to electricity prices under quantity competition. A theoretical approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sijm, J.; Chen, Y.; Hobbs, B.F.

2012-01-01

We present a theoretical analysis of the impact of power market structure on the pass-through rate (PTR) of CO2 emissions trading (ET) costs on electricity prices. Market structure refers in particular to the number of firms active in the market and the intensity of oligopolistic competition as measured by the conjectural variation, as well as to the functional form of the power demand and supply curves. In addition, we analyse briefly the impact of other power market-related factors on the PTR of carbon costs to electricity prices. These include in particular the impact of ET-induced changes in the merit order of power generation technologies and the impact of pursuing other market strategies besides maximising generator profit, such as maximising market shares or sales revenues of power companies. Each of these factors can have a significant impact on the rate of passing-through carbon costs to electricity prices.

Market-driven energy pricing necessary to ensure China's power supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Qiang; Qiu, Huan-Ning; Kuang, Yaoqiu

2009-01-01

China's rapid economic growth has strained its power supply, as manifested for instance by the widespread 2008 power shortage. The cause for this shortage is thought to be the current Chinese energy pricing system, which is mainly government rather than market controlled. Government-regulated price-caps for coal have seriously affected coal supply. At the same time price-caps for electricity supply have caused suspension of power plant operation. As a result, the average operating time of coal-fired power plants declined 50 h annually across the nation in the first half of 2008 compared to the previous year, despite clear power shortages. Here, it will be suggested that energy pricing, set by supply and demand may effectively discourage excessive growth in heavy industry, substantially encourage energy conservation and efficiency, and curb the rapid electricity demand in China. It will be argued that a market-oriented electricity pricing mechanism is required for China to secure its future power supply. (author)

Production planning of combined heat and power plants with regards to electricity price spikes : A machine learning approach

OpenAIRE

Fransson, Nathalie

2017-01-01

District heating systems could help manage the expected increase of volatility on the Nordic electricity market by starting a combined heat and power production plant (CHP) instead of a heat only production plant when electricity prices are expected to be high. Fortum Värme is interested in adjusting the production planning of their district heating system more towards high electricity prices and in their system there is a peak load CHP unit that could be utilised for this purpose. The econom...

Electricity pricing and management systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sawal, D.M.; Bajapai, Ashok

1997-01-01

The installed capacity of power generation in India is at present 80,000 MW. Out of the total 5.79 lakh inhabitated villages in the country, 4.79 villages have been electrified so far. Total number of consumers of electricity are about 95 million in the country. For such a large country with population of over 900 million and area of 32.873 lakh sq. kms., the role of electricity pricing and management system of the power sector is of paramount importance

Nodal pricing in a coupled electricity market

OpenAIRE

Bjørndal, Endre; Bjørndal, Mette; Cai, Hong

2014-01-01

This paper investigates a pricing model for an electricity market with a hybrid congestion management method, i.e. part of the system applies a nodal pricing scheme and the rest applies a zonal pricing scheme. The model clears the zonal and nodal pricing areas simultaneously. The nodal pricing area is affected by the changes in the zonal pricing area since it is directly connected to the zonal pricing area by commercial trading. The model is tested on a 13-node power system. Within the area t...

Cross hedging and forward-contract pricing of electricity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woo, C.-K.; Hoang, K.; Horowitz, I.

2001-01-01

We consider the problem of an electric-power marketer offering a fixed-price forward contract to provide electricity that it purchases from a potentially volatile and unpredictable fledgling spot energy market. One option for the risk-averse marketer who wants to hedge against the spot-price volatility is to engage in cross hedging to reduce the contract's profit variance, and to determine the forward-contract price as a risk-adjusted price - the sum of a baseline price and a risk premium. We show how the marketer can estimate the spot-price relationship between two wholesale energy markets for the purpose of cross hedging, as well as the optimal hedge and the forward contract's baseline price and risk premium

Price-based control of electrical power systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jokic, A.; Lazar, M.; Bosch, van den P.P.J.; Negenborn, R.R.; Lukszo, Z.; Hellendorn, H.

2010-01-01

In this chapter we present the price-based control as a suitable approach to solve some of the challenging problems facing future, market-based power sys tems. On the example of economically optimal power balance and transmission network congestion control, we present how global objectives and

Electric power in Canada 1992

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1994-12-31

Electric power in Canada is given a comprehensive review by the Electricity Branch of the Department of Natural Resources Canada. The Electric Power Industry is scrutinized for electricity consumption, generation, trade and pricing across all of Canada. 98 tabs. 26 figs.

Electric power in Canada 1992

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

Electric power in Canada is given a comprehensive review by the Electricity Branch of the Department of Natural Resources Canada. The Electric Power Industry is scrutinized for electricity consumption, generation, trade and pricing across all of Canada. 98 tabs. 26 figs

Recent research in electric power pricing and load management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tabors, R.D.

1990-01-01

Reliable electricity is a necessity for industrial and economic development. In the developing nations, power systems are growing rapidly. Typically, demand for electricity grows faster than either total energy demand or gross domestic product. Load management systems and innovative tariff structures offer to utilities potentially significant operating and capital cost savings through increased efficiency. Benefits must be weighed against the costs of implementation, communication, control and monitoring. When comparing developed and developing country utilities one may conclude that the developing countries may have far more to gain from direct load management and innovative tariff systems. They may be able to introduce variable (cost dependent/time dependent) reliability as opposed to the constant reliability expected in the USA and Western Europe; and many utilities may be able to design more flexible (and less costly) utility systems around a combination of load management and pricing structures, that encourage a higher level of interaction between customer and utility than is the case in the more developed utilities. (author). 84 refs

Electricity pricing and load dispatching in deregulated electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Geerli; Niioka, S.; Yokoyama, R.

2003-01-01

A rapid move to a market-based electric power industry will significantly alter the structure of electricity pricing and system operation. In this paper, we consider a game of negotiation in the electricity market, involving electric utilities, independent power producers (IPPs) and large-scale customers. We analyze the two-level game strategies for the negotiation process between utilities, IPPs and customers. These have been previously recognized as a way to come up with a rational decision for competitive markets, in which players intend to maximize their own profits. The derived operation rules based on competition can be viewed as an extension of the conventional equal incremental cost method for the deregulated power system. The proposed approach was applied to several systems to verify its effectiveness. (Author)

Forecasting Day-Ahead Electricity Prices : Utilizing Hourly Prices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

E. Raviv (Eran); K.E. Bouwman (Kees); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick)

2013-01-01

textabstractThe daily average price of electricity represents the price of electricity to be delivered over the full next day and serves as a key reference price in the electricity market. It is an aggregate that equals the average of hourly prices for delivery during each of the 24 individual

Excessive price reduction and extreme volatility in wind dominant electricity markets; solutions and emerging challenges

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Farashbashi-Astaneh, Seyed-Mostafa; Chen, Zhe; Mousavi, Omid Alizadeh

2013-01-01

High intermittency in the nature of wind power emphasize conceptual revising in the mechanisms of electricity markets with high wind power penetration levels. This paper introduces overmuch price reduction and high price volatility as two adverse consequences in future wind dominant electricity...... is developed. The paper indicates discriminatory pricing approach can be beneficial in high penetration of wind power because it alleviates high price variations and spikiness in one hand and prevents overmuch price reduction in wind dominant electricity markets on the other hand....... markets. While high price volatility imposes elevated risk levels for both electricity suppliers and consumers, excessive price reduction of electricity is a disincentive for investment in new generation capacity and might jeopardizes system adequacy in long term. A comparative study between marginal...

The impact of power market structure on the pass-through of CO2 emissions trading costs to electricity prices. A theoretical approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sijm, J.; Chen, Yihsu; Hobbs, B.F.

2009-06-01

This paper analyses the impact of power market structure on the pass-through rate (PTR) of CO2 emissions trading costs on electricity prices from a theoretical point of view, including graphical illustrations and mathematical proofs. Market structure refers in particular to the number of firms active in the market as well as to the shape of the power demand and supply curves. In addition, it analyses the impact of other power market related factors on the PTR of carbon costs to electricity prices, notably the impact of ET-induced changes in the merit order of power generation technologies or the impact of pursuing other market strategies besides maximising generators' profits, such as maximising market shares or sales revenues of power companies. It shows that each of these factors can have a significant impact on the rate of passing-through carbon costs to electricity prices

The impact of power market structure on the pass-through of CO2 emissions trading costs to electricity prices. A theoretical approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sijm, J. [ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands); Chen, Yihsu [Merced School of Engineering, University of California, Merced, CA (United States); Hobbs, B.F. [Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland (United States)

2009-06-15

This paper analyses the impact of power market structure on the pass-through rate (PTR) of CO2 emissions trading costs on electricity prices from a theoretical point of view, including graphical illustrations and mathematical proofs. Market structure refers in particular to the number of firms active in the market as well as to the shape of the power demand and supply curves. In addition, it analyses the impact of other power market related factors on the PTR of carbon costs to electricity prices, notably the impact of ET-induced changes in the merit order of power generation technologies or the impact of pursuing other market strategies besides maximising generators' profits, such as maximising market shares or sales revenues of power companies. It shows that each of these factors can have a significant impact on the rate of passing-through carbon costs to electricity prices.

Optimal pricing and investment in the electricity sector in Tamil Nadu, India

Science.gov (United States)

Murthy, Ranganath Srinivas

2001-07-01

Faulty pricing policies and inadequate investment in the power sector are responsible for the chronic power shortages that plague Tamil Nadu and the rest of India. Formulae for optimal pricing rules are derived for a social welfare maximizing Electricity Board which sells electricity that is used both as an intermediate, and as a final good. Because of distributional constraints, the optimal prices deviate systematically from marginal costs. Optimal relative price-marginal cost differentials are computed for Tamil Nadu, and are found to indicate a lower degree of subsidization than the prevailing prices. The rationalization of electricity tariffs would very likely increase the Board's revenues. The cost-effectiveness of nuclear power in India is examined by comparing actual data for the Madras Atomic Power Project and the Singrauli coal-fired thermal power station. The conventional (non-environmental) costs of power generation are compared at both market prices and shadow prices, calculated according to the UNIDO guidelines for project evaluation. Despite favorable assumptions for the costs of the nuclear plant, coal had a decided edge over nuclear in Tamil Nadu. Remarkably, the edge varied little when market prices are replaced by shadow prices in the computations. With regard to the environmental costs, far too much remains unknown. More research is therefore needed on the environmental impacts of both types of power generation before a final choice can be made.

Power generation investment in electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

Most IEA countries are liberalizing their electricity markets, shifting the responsibility for financing new investment in power generation to private investors. No longer able to automatically pass on costs to consumers, and with future prices of electricity uncertain, investors face a much riskier environment for investment in electricity infrastructure. This report looks at how investors have responded to the need to internalize investment risk in power generation. While capital and total costs remain the parameters shaping investment choices, the value of technologies which can be installed quickly and operated flexibly is increasingly appreciated. Investors are also managing risk by greater use of contracting, by acquiring retail businesses, and through mergers with natural gas suppliers. While liberalization was supposed to limit government intervention in the electricity market, volatile electricity prices have put pressure on governments to intervene and limit such prices. This study looks at several cases of volatile prices in IEA countries' electricity markets, and finds that while market prices can be a sufficient incentive for new investment in peak capacity, government intervention into the market to limit prices may undermine such investment

Cross hedging and forward-contract pricing of electricity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Woo, C.-K.; Hoang, K. [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc., 353 Sacramento Street, Suite 1700, 94111 San Francisco, CA (United States); Horowitz, I. [Decision and Information Sciences, Warrington College of Business Administration, University of Florida, 32611 Gainesville, FL (United States)

2001-01-01

We consider the problem of an electric-power marketer offering a fixed-price forward contract to provide electricity that it purchases from a potentially volatile and unpredictable fledgling spot energy market. One option for the risk-averse marketer who wants to hedge against the spot-price volatility is to engage in cross hedging to reduce the contract's profit variance, and to determine the forward-contract price as a risk-adjusted price - the sum of a baseline price and a risk premium. We show how the marketer can estimate the spot-price relationship between two wholesale energy markets for the purpose of cross hedging, as well as the optimal hedge and the forward contract's baseline price and risk premium.

Hydro to market green power at special prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McArthur, D.; Salaff, S.

1996-01-01

A 600 kW grid-connected demonstration wind turbine at Ontario Place will provide green power to Toronto residents early in 1997. The joint venture project partners include publicly owned Ontario Hydro, Toronto Hydro and Natural Resources Canada. The power will be sold at a premium under arrangements yet to be announced. The green power pricing initiative would allow some customers to buy their electricity at a green price. The project could be a self-financing model for future renewable energy development. The Ontario Place turbine project will determine whether Toronto electricity customers want green power or electricity from nuclear and fossil stations, and could determine which type of generation should be built in the future

CO2 price dynamics. The implications of EU emissions trading for the price of electricity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sijm, J.P.M.; Bakker, S.J.A.; Harmsen, H.W.; Lise, W.; Chen, Y.

2005-09-01

The present study analyses the relationship between EU emissions trading and power prices, notably the implications of free allocation of emissions allowances for the price of electricity in countries of North-western Europe. To study this impact, it uses a variety of analytical approaches, including interviews with stakeholders, empirical and statistical analyses, theoretical explorations, and analyses by means of the COMPETES model. The study shows that a significant part of the costs of freely allocated allowances is passed through to power price and discusses its implications in terms of higher electricity prices for consumers and windfall profits for producers. It concludes that free allocation of emission allowances is a highly questionable policy option for a variety of reasons and suggests that auctioning might offer a better perspective

Modeling prices of wholesale market of electric energy and power by the example of the UPS of the Ural

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mokhov V.G.

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The article oversees forecasting model for deviations of the balancing market index and day-ahead market index according to the maximum similarity sample for different levels of approximation in the context of positive and negative time-series value. The model was being tested on the factual data of the Integrated Power system of the Ural, Wholesale market for electricity and power of Russian Federation. Describes the price formation on the day-ahead market and the balancing market index. The necessity to use accurate forecasting methods consumption and prices of electrical energy and power to reduce penalties when the electric power industry entities on the energy exchange. The testing of mathematical models to predict the balancing market index deviations and day-ahead market based on a sample of maximum similarity with certain approximation equations for positive and negative values gave the prediction error of 3.3%.

Assessment of emission trading impacts on competitive electricity market price

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Singh, S.N.; Saxena, D.; Østergaard, Jacob

2011-01-01

analyzes the impact of electricity prices in the competitive electricity markets having a uniform market clearing price mechanism. Findings - It is found that the electricity prices depend on the system loading, generation mix, etc. at a particular hour. Various emission trading instruments are discussed...... side emission trading impact on electricity prices in the competitive power market. Design/methodology/approach - Various schemes are suggested and are being implemented to achieve this objective. It is expected that electricity price will increase due to imposition of emission taxes. This paper...... with a special emphasis on the European market. Research limitations/implications - Block bidding of the suppliers is considered whereas the demand is assumed to be inelastic. Originality/value - The emission trading impacts are analyzed on a simple example....

The price of electricity from private power producers: Stage 2, Expansion of sample and preliminary statistical analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Comnes, G.A.; Belden, T.N.; Kahn, E.P.

1995-02-01

The market for long-term bulk power is becoming increasingly competitive and mature. Given that many privately developed power projects have been or are being developed in the US, it is possible to begin to evaluate the performance of the market by analyzing its revealed prices. Using a consistent method, this paper presents levelized contract prices for a sample of privately developed US generation properties. The sample includes 26 projects with a total capacity of 6,354 MW. Contracts are described in terms of their choice of technology, choice of fuel, treatment of fuel price risk, geographic location, dispatchability, expected dispatch niche, and size. The contract price analysis shows that gas technologies clearly stand out as the most attractive. At an 80% capacity factor, coal projects have an average 20-year levelized price of $0.092/kWh, whereas natural gas combined cycle and/or cogeneration projects have an average price of $0.069/kWh. Within each technology type subsample, however, there is considerable variation. Prices for natural gas combustion turbines and one wind project are also presented. A preliminary statistical analysis is conducted to understand the relationship between price and four categories of explanatory factors including product heterogeneity, geographic heterogeneity, economic and technological change, and other buyer attributes (including avoided costs). Because of residual price variation, we are unable to accept the hypothesis that electricity is a homogeneous product. Instead, the analysis indicates that buyer value still plays an important role in the determination of price for competitively-acquired electricity.

Deregulated power prices: comparison of volatility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Ying; Flynn, P.C.

2004-01-01

We examine electrical power price variability for 14 deregulated markets. Power price volatility is measured by price velocity, the daily average of the absolute value of price change per hour. Deregulated markets show a wide variability in price velocity. Some price velocity is expected and arises from the daily diurnal price pattern, which differs significantly between markets. Even when the expected daily variability in price is removed, the residual unexpected variability differs between markets. Some deregulated markets, most notably Britain and Spain, show patterns that are predictable and consistent and have low values of unexpected price velocity. These markets create a climate conducive to consumers facing the market through real time pricing and shaping consumption behaviors in response to price changes. Other markets, for example, South Australia and Alberta, have patterns that are inconsistent and irregular, and hence are hard for a customer to interpret; a customer in such a market will have a higher incentive to avoid demand side management and escape risk through hedging mechanisms

Electricity spot price forecasting in free power market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lilleberg, J.; Laitinen, E.K.

1998-01-01

Deregulation has brought many changes to the electricity market. Freedom of choice has been granted to both the consumers and the utilities. Consumers may choose the seller of their energy. Utilities have a wider array of sources to acquire their electricity from. Also the types of sales contracts used are changing to fill the needs of this new situation. The consumers' right to choose has introduced a new risk uncertainty of volume, which was not true during the times of monopoly. As sold volume is unsure and the energy is not sold on same terms as it is bought, a price risk has to be dealt with also. The electric utility has to realize this, select a risk level that suits its business strategy and optimize its actions according to the selected risk level. The number of participants will grow as the electricity market integrates into a common market for Scandinavia and even Europe. Big customers are also taking a more active role in the market, further increasing the number of participants. This makes old bilateral arrangements outdated. New tools are needed to control the new business environment. The goal of this project has been to develop a theoretical model to predict the price in the Finnish electricity exchange, El-Ex Oy. An extensive literature review was conducted in order to (1) examine the solutions in deregulation of electricity markets in other countries, esp. in Norway and UK, (2) find similarities and differences in electricity exchange and exchanges generally and (3) find major sources of problems and inefficiency in the market

Electricity spot price forecasting in free power market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lilleberg, J; Laitinen, E K [Vaasa Univ. (Finland)

1998-08-01

Deregulation has brought many changes to the electricity market. Freedom of choice has been granted to both the consumers and the utilities. Consumers may choose the seller of their energy. Utilities have a wider array of sources to acquire their electricity from. Also the types of sales contracts used are changing to fill the needs of this new situation. The consumers` right to choose has introduced a new risk uncertainty of volume, which was not true during the times of monopoly. As sold volume is unsure and the energy is not sold on same terms as it is bought, a price risk has to be dealt with also. The electric utility has to realize this, select a risk level that suits its business strategy and optimize its actions according to the selected risk level. The number of participants will grow as the electricity market integrates into a common market for Scandinavia and even Europe. Big customers are also taking a more active role in the market, further increasing the number of participants. This makes old bilateral arrangements outdated. New tools are needed to control the new business environment. The goal of this project has been to develop a theoretical model to predict the price in the Finnish electricity exchange, El-Ex Oy. An extensive literature review was conducted in order to (1) examine the solutions in deregulation of electricity markets in other countries, esp. in Norway and UK, (2) find similarities and differences in electricity exchange and exchanges generally and (3) find major sources of problems and inefficiency in the market

Battery prices and capacity sensitivity: Electric drive vehicles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Juul, Nina

2012-01-01

, the prices at which the electric drive vehicles become of interest to the power system are found. Smart charge, including the opportunity to discharge (vehicle-to-grid) is used in all scenarios. Analyses show that the marginal benefits decrease the larger the battery. For very high battery prices, large......The increase in fluctuating power production requires an increase in flexibility in the system as well. Flexibility can be found in generation technologies with fast response times or in storage options. In the transport sector, the proportion of electric drive vehicles is expected to increase over...... the next decade or two. These vehicles can provide some of the flexibility needed in the power system, in terms of both flexible demand and electricity storage. However, what are the batteries worth to the power system? And does the value depend on battery capacity? This article presents an analysis...

A carbon floor price for the electric power sector: which consequences? Policy Brief nr 2015-03

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trotignon, Raphael; Solier, Boris; Perthuis, Christian de

2015-11-01

As France envisages to introduce a carbon floor price (raised from 8 to 30 euros) for the electricity sector like it has been the case in the UK since 2013, such a measure would not result in CO_2 emission reductions, but in emission transfers between actors. The authors comments and analyse the possible consequences of such a measure. By using the ZEPHYR model, they discuss the consequences on the European ETS and on the western European electric power market. They notably briefly comment the impact of a price of 30 euros per CO_2 ton on the emissions by the electricity sector in France, Germany, the UK and Poland, and more particularly of French emissions in 2013 and 2014

Electricity-market price and nuclear power plant shutdown: Evidence from California

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woo, C.K.; Ho, T.; Zarnikau, J.; Olson, A.; Jones, R.; Chait, M.; Horowitz, I.; Wang, J.

2014-01-01

Japan's Fukushima nuclear disaster, triggered by the March 11, 2011 earthquake, has led to calls for shutting down existing nuclear plants. To maintain resource adequacy for a grid's reliable operation, one option is to expand conventional generation, whose marginal unit is typically fueled by natural-gas. Two timely and relevant questions thus arise for a deregulated wholesale electricity market: (1) what is the likely price increase due to a nuclear plant shutdown? and (2) what can be done to mitigate the price increase? To answer these questions, we perform a regression analysis of a large sample of hourly real-time electricity-market price data from the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) for the 33-month sample period of April 2010–December 2012. Our analysis indicates that the 2013 shutdown of the state's San Onofre plant raised the CAISO real-time hourly market prices by $6/MWH to $9/MWH, and that the price increases could have been offset by a combination of demand reduction, increasing solar generation, and increasing wind generation. - Highlights: • Japan's disaster led to calls for shutting down existing nuclear plants. • We perform a regression analysis of California's real-time electricity-market prices. • We estimate that the San Onofre plant shutdown has raised the market prices by $6/MWH to $9/MWH. • The price increases could be offset by demand reduction and renewable generation increase

Forecasting Day-Ahead Electricity Prices: Utilizing Hourly Prices

OpenAIRE

Raviv, Eran; Bouwman, Kees E.; van Dijk, Dick

2013-01-01

This discussion paper led to a publication in 'Energy Economics' , 2015, 50, 227-239. The daily average price of electricity represents the price of electricity to be delivered over the full next day and serves as a key reference price in the electricity market. It is an aggregate that equals the average of hourly prices for delivery during each of the 24 individual hours. This paper demonstrates that the disaggregated hourly prices contain useful predictive information for the daily average ...

Electric power conservation in Brazil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hollanda, J.B. de

1989-01-01

The Brazilian Electric Power Conservation Program (PROCEL) is discussed. The main objective of this program is the optimization of electric power use, including consideration about prices, technology development and legislation. (M.V.M.)

Does the use of nuclear power lead to lower electricity prices? An analysis of the debate in Germany with an international perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nestle, Uwe

2012-01-01

There is an ongoing discussion if it is reasonable to start using nuclear energy, to extend its use, or what effects its phase out could have. In July 2011, four months after the nuclear accidents in Japan, Germany decided to return to the policy of phasing out nuclear energy step by step until 2022. This policy was already decided upon in 2000. With this, a decision made some nine months earlier was taken back. In fall 2010, the government and Parliament had approved the extension of the operating lives of its nuclear plants by at least 14 years. One reason was the expected effect on the electricity price, which was said to be lower with extended nuclear plant life spans. However, there is an ongoing debate on this argument, not only in Germany. This article presents a critical survey of the core arguments brought forward in favour of expected future price cuts. It is shown that the theoretical electricity market models used in these exercises are not adequate to reliably predict such effects. Furthermore, evidence is presented suggesting that extending nuclear plant life spans or the commissioning of new reactors in other countries is unlikely to curb domestic electricity prices. - Highlights: ► The effect of nuclear policy and the share of nuclear power is discussed and analysed. ► Reliability of findings of complex theoretical electricity market models is discussed. ► Pro nuclear policy strengthens oligopoly-like structures, which might raise prices. ► Different studies analysing power prices vs. share of nuclear power are displayed. ► Changing the share of nuclear power does not have a relevant influence on power price.

Real-time electricity pricing mechanism in China based on system dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He, Yongxiu; Zhang, Jixiang

2015-01-01

Highlights: • The system dynamics is used to research the real-time electricity pricing mechanism. • Four kinds of the real-time electricity pricing models are carried out and simulated. • It analysed the electricity price, the user satisfaction and the social benefits under the different models. • Market pricing is the trend of the real-time electricity pricing mechanism. • Initial development path of the real-time price mechanism for China is designed between 2015 and 2030. - Abstract: As an important means of demand-side response, the reasonable formulation of the electricity price mechanism will have an important impact on the balance between the supply and demand of electric power. With the introduction of Chinese intelligence apparatus and the rapid development of smart grids, real-time electricity pricing, as the frontier electricity pricing mechanism in the smart grid, will have great significance on the promotion of energy conservation and the improvement of the total social surplus. From the perspective of system dynamics, this paper studies different real-time electricity pricing mechanisms based on load structure, cost structure and bidding and analyses the situation of user satisfaction and the total social surplus under different pricing mechanisms. Finally, through the comparative analysis of examples under different real-time pricing scenarios, this paper aims to explore and design the future dynamic real-time electricity pricing mechanism in China, predicts the dynamic real-time pricing level and provides a reference for real-time electricity price promotion in the future

The effect of electricity prices on industry in Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roepenack, A. von

1992-01-01

The contribution gives a survey of the general consumption of electricity in the (former) Federal Republic of Germany from 1980 until 1990 and illustrates the effect of electricity prices on industry - safety of the site, competition, influences on prices for electricity, intensity of electricity, comparison to gross increase in value. In addition, the influence of politics on electricity prices is examined. Among other things, we owe the success of our industry on the international market to the increase in our use of electric power. This is the basis of our success in rationalization and our status on the world market. The dependency of industry and industrial products on this form of energy has increased and will continue to do so. Thus the politicians have little room to act if they do not want to influence industry in a negative way. On the basis of the situation described here, electricity prices which are competitive internationally are an essential prerequisite for the future of our economy. (orig./HSCH) [de

Electric power: the liberalization effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carpentier, J.

1999-01-01

Nine months after the beginning of the deregulation of electric power markets in Europe, the first effects are being felt: fall of prices, amalgamation of electric power companies, development of new technologies and unemployment. (O.M.)

Pricing electricity for sustainability : climate change and Canada's electricity sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

The electricity sector is Canada's largest single source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper discussed electricity and carbon pricing approaches to reducing GHG emissions in the electricity sector. An overview of the links between electricity pricing and climate change was presented, and current and emerging trends in electricity pricing related to encouraging energy conservation were reviewed. Market prices and failures were discussed. Approaches to pricing electricity included an increase in block prices; time-of-use prices; demand-side management and energy efficiency; and carbon pricing in Canada and electricity pricing signals. The study showed that several provincial utilities in Canada are experimenting with market-based pricing approaches for electricity and carbon that may help to reduce GHG emissions over time. Concerns over electricity supply and the negative environmental impacts of electricity production may lead to the full social pricing of electricity in some regions of Canada. 46 refs., 3 tabs., 5 figs.

Wind power bidding in electricity markets with high wind penetration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vilim, Michael; Botterud, Audun

2014-01-01

Highlights: • We analyze the pricing systems and wind power trading in electricity markets. • We propose a model that captures the relation between market prices and wind power. • A probabilistic bidding model can increase profits for wind power producers. • Profit maximizing bidding strategies carry risks for power system operators. • We conclude that modifications of current market designs may be needed. - Abstract: Objective: The optimal day-ahead bidding strategy is studied for a wind power producer operating in an electricity market with high wind penetration. Methods: A generalized electricity market is studied with minimal assumptions about the structure of the production, bidding, or consumption of electricity. Two electricity imbalance pricing schemes are investigated, the one price and the two price scheme. A stochastic market model is created to capture the price effects of wind power production and consumption. A bidding algorithm called SCOPES (Supply Curve One Price Estimation Strategy) is developed for the one price system. A bidding algorithm called MIMICS (Multivariate Interdependence Minimizing Imbalance Cost Strategy) is developed for the two price system. Results: Both bidding strategies are shown to have advantages over the assumed “default” bidding strategy, the point forecast. Conclusion: The success of these strategies even in the case of high deviation penalties in a one price system and the implicit deviation penalties of the two price system has substantial implications for power producers and system operators in electricity markets with a high level of wind penetration. Practice implications: From an electricity market design perspective, the results indicate that further penalties or regulations may be needed to reduce system imbalance

Wind energy and electricity prices. Exploring the 'merit order effect'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morthost, P.E.; Ray, S.; Munksgaard, J.; Sinner, A.F.

2010-04-01

This report focuses on the effect of wind energy on the electricity price in the power market. As the report will discuss, adding wind into the power mix has a significant influence on the resulting price of electricity, the so called merit order effect (MOE). The merit order effect has been quantified and discussed in many scientific publications. This report ends the first phase of a study on the MOE, evaluating the impact of EWEA's 2020 scenarios on future European electricity prices. The basic principles of the merit order effect are provided in the first part of the document. The literature review itself contains methods and tools not only to quantify the merit order effect but also in order to forecast its future range and volume.

The impact of power market reforms on electricity price-cost margins and cross-subsidy levels: A cross country panel data analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Erdogdu, Erkan

2011-01-01

One of the main expectations from power market reform has been a reduction in both price-cost margins and cross-subsidy levels between industrial and residential consumers. This paper focuses on this issue by looking at the impact of the electricity industry reforms on residential and industrial electricity price-cost margins and their effect on cross-subsidy levels between consumer groups. Using panel data for 63 developed and developing countries covering the period 1982-2009, empirical models are developed and analyzed. The research findings suggest that there is no uniform pattern for the impact of reform process as a whole on price-cost margins and cross-subsidy levels. Each individual reform step has different impact on price-cost margins and cross-subsidy levels for each consumer and country group. Our findings imply that reform steps have different impacts in different countries, which supports the idea reform prescription for a specific country cannot easily and successfully be transferred to another one. So, transferring the formal and economic structure of a successful power market in a developed country to developing countries is not a sufficient condition for good economic performance of the electricity industries in developing countries. Furthermore, the study suggests that power consumption, income level and country-specific features constitute other important determinants of electricity price-cost margins and cross-subsidy levels. - Research highlights: → The paper focuses on the impact of power market reforms on price-cost margins and cross-subsidy levels. → Using panel data for 63 countries for the period 1982-2009, empirical models are developed and analyzed. → We found that each individual reform step has different impact for each consumer and country group. → We conclude that reform prescription for a specific country cannot easily be transferred to another one.

A model for hedging load and price risk in the Texas electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coulon, Michael; Powell, Warren B.; Sircar, Ronnie

2013-01-01

Energy companies with commitments to meet customers' daily electricity demands face the problem of hedging load and price risk. We propose a joint model for load and price dynamics, which is motivated by the goal of facilitating optimal hedging decisions, while also intuitively capturing the key features of the electricity market. Driven by three stochastic factors including the load process, our power price model allows for the calculation of closed-form pricing formulas for forwards and some options, products often used for hedging purposes. Making use of these results, we illustrate in a simple example the hedging benefit of these instruments, while also evaluating the performance of the model when fitted to the Texas electricity market. - Highlights: • We present a structural model for electricity spot prices in the ERCOT market. • Relationships between power price and factors such as load and gas price are studied. • Seasonal patterns and load-dependent spikes are shown to be well captured. • Closed-form results for prices of forwards, options and spread options are derived. • We demonstrate the effectiveness of hedging power demand with forwards and options

Carbon price and wind power support in Denmark

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gavard, Claire

2016-01-01

This paper aims at characterizing the conditions of wind power deployment in order to infer a carbon price level that would provide wind power with comparable advantage over fossil fuel technologies as effective wind support policies. The analysis is conducted on Denmark after the electricity market liberalization. Probit and tobit techniques are employed to take account of a potential threshold effect. I find that the level and type of the support policy are the dominant drivers of deployment. A feed-in tariff significantly brings more wind power in than a premium policy. The additional capacity installed monthly increases by more than 1 MW for each additional €/MWh of support. This is compared to the effect of the electricity price, investment cost, interest rate and general economic activity. If the policy is a premium, I find that 23€/MWh of support in addition to electricity price is needed to observe the connection of new turbines to the grid with a 0.5 probability. I convert this support level into a carbon price of 27€/ton if wind power competes with coal, and 48€/t if it competes with gas. - Highlights: •I analyze wind power development in Denmark between 2000 and 2010. •I use probit and tobit techniques to assess the determinants of this deployment. •The level and policy type of wind power support are the main drivers. •I deduct the critical level of premium needed to trigger wind power. •I convert this into an equivalent carbon price and I find that it is below 50€/ton.

Price formation in electricity forward markets and the relevance of systematic forecast errors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Redl, Christian; Haas, Reinhard; Huber, Claus; Boehm, Bernhard

2009-01-01

Since the liberalisation of the European electricity sector, forward and futures contracts have gained significant interest of market participants due to risk management reasons. For pricing of these contracts an important fact concerns the non-storability of electricity. In this case, according to economic theory, forward prices are related to the expected spot prices which are built on fundamental market expectations. In the following article the crucial impact parameters of forward electricity prices and the relationship between forward and future spot prices will be assessed by an empirical analysis of electricity prices at the European Energy Exchange and the Nord Pool Power Exchange. In fact, price formation in the considered markets is influenced by historic spot market prices yielding a biased forecasting power of long-term contracts. Although market and risk assessment measures of market participants and supply and demand shocks can partly explain the futures-spot bias inefficiencies in the analysed forward markets cannot be ruled out. (author)

Revisiting short-term price and volatility dynamics in day-ahead electricity markets with rising wind power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Yuanjing

2015-01-01

This paper revisits the short-term price and volatility dynamics in day-ahead electricity markets in consideration of an increasing share of wind power, using an example of the Nord Pool day-ahead market and the Danish wind generation. To do so, a GARCH process is applied, and market coupling and the counterbalance effect of hydropower in the Scandinavian countries are additionally accounted for. As results, we found that wind generation weakly dampens spot prices with an elasticity of 0.008 and also reduces price volatility with an elasticity of 0.02 in the Nordic day-ahead market. The results shed lights on the importance of market coupling and interactions between wind power and hydropower in the Nordic system through cross-border exchanges, which play an essential role in price stabilization. Additionally, an EGARCH specification confirms an asymmetric influence of the price innovations, whereby negative shocks produce larger volatility in the Nordic spot market. While considering heavy tails in error distributions can improve model fits significantly, the EGARCH model outperforms the GARCH model on forecast evaluations. (author)

CO2 price dynamics. The implications of EU emissions trading for electricity prices and operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sijm, J.P.M.; Bakker, S.J.A.; Harmsen, H.W.; Lise, W.; Chen, Y.

2006-07-01

The experience with CO 2 trading and allowances prices in the last year is reviewed, with a focus on the factors influencing the price of electricity in EU countries. A statistical analysis investigates the relationship between the large increases in electricity prices experienced in 2005 and their relationship to CO 2 prices. In addition, a market simulation analysis using the COMPETES model is performed to assess the extent to which profit-maximizing generators, some of which possess market power, might pass on the opportunity cost of allowances to consumers. The paper concludes by reviewing possible options for policy makers to address the possible adverse implications of price increases caused by CO/sub 2/ trading.

Proceedings: 1996 EPRI conference on innovative approaches to electricity pricing: Managing the transition to market-based pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-03-01

This report presents the proceedings from the EPRI conference on innovative approaches to electricity pricing. Topics discussed include: power transmission pricing; retail pricing; price risk management; new pricing paradigms; changes from cost-based to a market-based pricing scheme; ancillary services; retail market strategies; profitability; unbundling; and value added services. This is the leading abstract. Papers are processed separately for the databases

An Electricity Price Forecasting Model by Hybrid Structured Deep Neural Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ping-Huan Kuo

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Electricity price is a key influencer in the electricity market. Electricity market trades by each participant are based on electricity price. The electricity price adjusted with the change in supply and demand relationship can reflect the real value of electricity in the transaction process. However, for the power generating party, bidding strategy determines the level of profit, and the accurate prediction of electricity price could make it possible to determine a more accurate bidding price. This cannot only reduce transaction risk, but also seize opportunities in the electricity market. In order to effectively estimate electricity price, this paper proposes an electricity price forecasting system based on the combination of 2 deep neural networks, the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN and the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM. In order to compare the overall performance of each algorithm, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE and Root-Mean-Square error (RMSE evaluating measures were applied in the experiments of this paper. Experiment results show that compared with other traditional machine learning methods, the prediction performance of the estimating model proposed in this paper is proven to be the best. By combining the CNN and LSTM models, the feasibility and practicality of electricity price prediction is also confirmed in this paper.

NPP electrical price and tariff in the world

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mochamad Nasrullah and Sriyana

2010-01-01

Construction of a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) is always become a controversial issue. Nuclear utility and other party which support the NPP present a calculation of NPP electricity cost too optimistic. However for utility and other party that contra to nuclear present a calculation of NPP electricity cost too pessimistic. This study present to reduce the controversy of nuclear cost. In this study, capital cost (Engineering Procurement Construction, EPC) was taken from Asian, America and Europe, operating and maintenance cost uses experience data of PLN, and nuclear fuel cost uses data year of 2008 with high price, low price and average price scenario. The methodological tools used to compare electricity generation cost was LEGECOST, a program developed by IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency), while for electricity tariff- price calculation using a program developed by PLN research and development center. With the discount rate 10%, the result shows that the cheapest electricity generation cost of NPP is less than 40 mills/kWh, and average electricity tariff was 55 mills/kWh. In the Europe countries the electricity tariff more expensive than NPP in Asia. However generating cost and electricity tariff of NPP in United Stated of America (USA) less competitive because investment cost more expensive. Generating cost and electricity tariff was different at each country depend on salary, labor wage, materials price, construction specification, regulation related to NPP and environment aspect. (author)

Forecasting of electricity prices with neural networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gareta, Raquel [Centro de Investigacion de Recursos y Consumos Energeticos (CIRCE), Universidad de Zaragoza, Centro Politecnico Superior, Maria de Luna, 3, 50018 Zaragoza (Spain); Romeo, Luis M. [Centro de Investigacion de Recursos y Consumos Energeticos (CIRCE), Universidad de Zaragoza, Centro Politecnico Superior, Maria de Luna, 3, 50018 Zaragoza (Spain)]. E-mail: luismi@unizar.es; Gil, Antonia [Centro de Investigacion de Recursos y Consumos Energeticos (CIRCE), Universidad de Zaragoza, Centro Politecnico Superior, Maria de Luna, 3, 50018 Zaragoza (Spain)

2006-08-15

During recent years, the electricity energy market deregulation has led to a new free competition situation in Europe and other countries worldwide. Generators, distributors and qualified clients have some uncertainties about the future evolution of electricity markets. In consequence, feasibility studies of new generation plants, design of new systems and energy management optimization are frequently postponed. The ability of forecasting energy prices, for instance the electricity prices, would be highly appreciated in order to improve the profitability of utility investments. The development of new simulation techniques, such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), has provided a good tool to forecast time series. In this paper, it is demonstrated that the Neural Network (NN) approach can be used to forecast short term hourly electricity pool prices (for the next day and two or three days after). The NN architecture and design for prices forecasting are described in this paper. The results are tested with extensive data sets, and good agreement is found between actual data and NN results. This methodology could help to improve power plant generation capacity management and, certainly, more profitable operation in daily energy pools.

Forecasting of electricity prices with neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gareta, Raquel; Romeo, Luis M.; Gil, Antonia

2006-01-01

During recent years, the electricity energy market deregulation has led to a new free competition situation in Europe and other countries worldwide. Generators, distributors and qualified clients have some uncertainties about the future evolution of electricity markets. In consequence, feasibility studies of new generation plants, design of new systems and energy management optimization are frequently postponed. The ability of forecasting energy prices, for instance the electricity prices, would be highly appreciated in order to improve the profitability of utility investments. The development of new simulation techniques, such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), has provided a good tool to forecast time series. In this paper, it is demonstrated that the Neural Network (NN) approach can be used to forecast short term hourly electricity pool prices (for the next day and two or three days after). The NN architecture and design for prices forecasting are described in this paper. The results are tested with extensive data sets, and good agreement is found between actual data and NN results. This methodology could help to improve power plant generation capacity management and, certainly, more profitable operation in daily energy pools

CO2 Price Impacts on Nuclear Power Plant Competitiveness in Croatia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tomsic, Z.; Pasicko, R.

2010-01-01

Long term power system planning faces growing number of concerns and uncertainties, which is especially true for nuclear power plants due to their high investment costs and financial risk. In order to analyze competitiveness of nuclear power plants and optimize energy mix, existing models are not sufficient anymore and planners need to think differently in order to face these challenges. Croatia will join EU ETS (European Emission Trading Scheme) with accession to EU (probably in 2012). Thus, for Croatian electrical system it is very important to analyze possible impacts of CO 2 emissions. Analysis presented in this paper is done by electricity market simulation model PLEXOS which was used for modelling Croatian electrical system during development of the Croatian Energy Strategy in 2008. Paper analyzes impacts of CO 2 price on competitiveness of nuclear power plant within Croatian power system between 2020 and 2025. Analyzes are focused on how nuclear power plant influences total emission from the power system regarding coal and gas prices, average electricity price regarding CO 2 , coal and gas prices price. Results of this paper are showing that with emissions from Energy strategy development scenario with two new coal power plants (600 MW each) and two new gas power plants (400 MW each) until 2020, Croatia does not meet Kyoto target due to this emissions from power system. On the other side, introduction of nuclear power plants presented in this paper (1000 MW instead of one coal and one gas power plant) means nearly 6.5 Mt CO 2 emissions less annually and gives possibility to achieve Kyoto target (as this reduced amount represents nearly 22 % of Croatian Kyoto target). Results are also showing how increase in CO 2 price is enhancing competitiveness of a nuclear power plant.(author).

Deregulated power prices: comparison of diurnal patterns

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ying Li; Flynn, P.C.

2004-01-01

We examine electrical power price, and in particular its daily and average weekday vs. weekend pattern of change, for 14 deregulated markets. Power price in deregulated markets shows fundamentally different patterns. North American markets show a monotonic diurnal weekday price pattern, while all other markets studied show more than one price peak. Deregulated power markets differ in maximum vs. minimum daily average price and in average weekday to weekend price, in turn creating a different incentive for a consumer to time shift power consuming activities. Markets differ in the extent to which a small fraction of the days shapes the average diurnal pattern and value of price. Deregulated markets show a wide variation in the correlation between load and price. Some deregulated markets, most notably Britain and Spain, show patterns that are predictable and consistent, and hence that can encourage a customer to shape consumption behaviors. Other markets, for example South Australia, have patterns that are inconsistent and irregular, and hence are hard for a customer to interpret; a customer in such a market will have a higher incentive to escape risk through hedging mechanisms. (Author)

Deregulated power prices: comparison of diurnal patterns

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Ying; Flynn, Peter C.

2004-01-01

We examine electrical power price, and in particular its daily and average weekday vs. weekend pattern of change, for 14 deregulated markets. Power price in deregulated markets shows fundamentally different patterns. North American markets show a monotonic diurnal weekday price pattern, while all other markets studied show more than one price peak. Deregulated power markets differ in maximum vs. minimum daily average price and in average weekday to weekend price, in turn creating a different incentive for a consumer to time shift power consuming activities. Markets differ in the extent to which a small fraction of the days shapes the average diurnal pattern and value of price. Deregulated markets show a wide variation in the correlation between load and price. Some deregulated markets, most notably Britain and Spain, show patterns that are predictable and consistent, and hence that can encourage a customer to shape consumption behaviors. Other markets, for example South Australia, have patterns that are inconsistent and irregular, and hence are hard for a customer to interpret; a customer in such a market will have a higher incentive to escape risk through hedging mechanisms

Optimal electricity price calculation model for retailers in a deregulated market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yusta, J.M.; Dominguez-Navarro, J.A. [Zaragoza Univ., Dept. of Electrical Engineering, Zaragoza (Spain); Ramirez-Rosado, I.J. [La Rioja Univ., Dept. of Electrical Engineering, Logrono (Spain); Perez-Vidal, J.M. [McKinnon and Clarke, Energy Services Div., Zaragoza (Spain)

2005-07-01

The electricity retailing, a new business in deregulated electric power systems, needs the development of efficient tools to optimize its operation. This paper defines a technical-economic model of an electric energy service provider in the environment of the deregulated electricity market in Spain. This model results in an optimization problem, for calculating the optimal electric power and energy selling prices that maximize the economic profits obtained by the provider. This problem is applied to different cases, where the impact on the profits of several factors, such as the price strategy, the discount on tariffs and the elasticity of customer demand functions, is studied. (Author)

Optimal electricity price calculation model for retailers in a deregulated market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yusta, J.M.; Dominguez-Navarro, J.A.; Ramirez-Rosado, I.J.; Perez-Vidal, J.M.

2005-01-01

The electricity retailing, a new business in deregulated electric power systems, needs the development of efficient tools to optimize its operation. This paper defines a technical-economic model of an electric energy service provider in the environment of the deregulated electricity market in Spain. This model results in an optimization problem, for calculating the optimal electric power and energy selling prices that maximize the economic profits obtained by the provider. This problem is applied to different cases, where the impact on the profits of several factors, such as the price strategy, the discount on tariffs and the elasticity of customer demand functions, is studied. (Author)

Electric power: liberalization in half-measure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pradel, P.

1996-01-01

The European directive about the electric power liberalization concerns only big consumers. These manufacturers have privileged relations with E.D.F. for long years with a very attractive price for the kilowatt hour. The change should not be very important, only more transparency in accounts and change in tariffs of power transmission: for example, a small electric power producer will be authorized to contest the buying price that E.D.F. imposes to him to transport the energy he produces. (N.C.)

Market prices for solar electricity in Ontario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowlands, I.H.

2006-01-01

The Ontario electricity supply is facing considerable challenges while demand is increasing due to a growing population and increased economic growth needs. In response to these challenges, the government of Ontario established the Ontario Power Authority (OPA) in 2004 to ensure adequate, reliable and secure electricity supply and resources in Ontario. The OPA has also engaged in activities to facilitate the diversification of sources of electricity supply by promoting the use of cleaner energy sources and technologies, including alternative energy sources and renewable energy. The purpose of this paper was to advance discussions regarding the contribution that solar PV can make to Ontario's supply mix. In particular, it determined the value of the electricity that would have been produced by a PV system located in Waterloo, Ontario under the following 4 pricing regimes: (1) the conventional small user tariff system currently in place in Ontario, (2) the time-of-use pricing system that is voluntarily available to those who have smart meters installed in their facilities, (3) the spot market, hourly prices, to which some of Ontario's largest electricity users are exposed, and (4) the recently-proposed rate for standard offer contracts for PV systems. The study showed that a solar PV system that produces 3,000 kWh of electricity over the course of a year would generate different revenue amounts, ranging from the smallest amount of approximately $174.00 to $1,260.00, depending on the pricing regime. The pricing regime that reflects real, time-of-day electricity prices appears to be most advantageous to solar PV systems. It was recommended that additional work is needed regarding the other benefits of solar PV, such as avoided capacity/generation needs, avoided transmission and distribution cost and losses, environmental benefits, and job creation. 3 refs., 4 tabs., 8 figs

Electricity market pricing, risk hedging and modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Xu

In this dissertation, we investigate the pricing, price risk hedging/arbitrage, and simplified system modeling for a centralized LMP-based electricity market. In an LMP-based market model, the full AC power flow model and the DC power flow model are most widely used to represent the transmission system. We investigate the differences of dispatching results, congestion pattern, and LMPs for the two power flow models. An appropriate LMP decomposition scheme to quantify the marginal costs of the congestion and real power losses is critical for the implementation of financial risk hedging markets. However, the traditional LMP decomposition heavily depends on the slack bus selection. In this dissertation we propose a slack-independent scheme to break LMP down into energy, congestion, and marginal loss components by analyzing the actual marginal cost of each bus at the optimal solution point. The physical and economic meanings of the marginal effect at each bus provide accurate price information for both congestion and losses, and thus the slack-dependency of the traditional scheme is eliminated. With electricity priced at the margin instead of the average value, the market operator typically collects more revenue from power sellers than that paid to power buyers. According to the LMP decomposition results, the revenue surplus is then divided into two parts: congestion charge surplus and marginal loss revenue surplus. We apply the LMP decomposition results to the financial tools, such as financial transmission right (FTR) and loss hedging right (LHR), which have been introduced to hedge against price risks associated to congestion and losses, to construct a full price risk hedging portfolio. The two-settlement market structure and the introduction of financial tools inevitably create market manipulation opportunities. We investigate several possible market manipulation behaviors by virtual bidding and propose a market monitor approach to identify and quantify such

Constructing forward price curves in electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleten, Stein-Erik; Lemming, Jacob

2003-01-01

We present and analyze a method for constructing approximated high-resolution forward price curves in electricity markets. Because a limited number of forward or futures contracts are traded in the market, only a limited picture of the theoretical continuous forward price curve is available to the analyst. Our method combines the information contained in observed bid and ask prices with information from the forecasts generated by bottom-up models. As an example, we use information concerning the shape of the seasonal variation from a bottom-up model to improve the forward price curve quoted on the Nordic power exchange

On maximizing profit of wind-battery supported power station based on wind power and energy price forecasting

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Khalid, Muhammad; Aguilera, Ricardo P.; Savkin, Andrey V.

2017-01-01

This paper proposes a framework to develop an optimal power dispatch strategy for grid-connected wind power plants containing a Battery Energy Storage System (BESS). Considering the intermittent nature of wind power and rapidly varying electricity market price, short-term forecasting...... Dynamic Programming tool which can incorporate the predictions of both wind power and market price simultaneously as inputs in a receding horizon approach. The proposed strategy is validated using real electricity market price and wind power data in different scenarios of BESS power and capacity...... of these variables is used for efficient energy management. The predicted variability trends in market price assist in earning additional income which subsequently increase the operational profit. Then on the basis of income improvement, optimal capacity of the BESS can be determined. The proposed framework utilizes...

The duty of buying electricity from renewable sources and from cogeneration versus purchasing prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Piha, M.

1992-01-01

Electricity purchase prices are regulated and should not exceed the price at which electricity is purchased from the transmission system belonging to the dominant supplier, viz., the CEZ company. The suitability is discussed of the employed method of average price comparison. Drawbacks of such a comparison lie in the lower reliability of supplies from renewable sources, the necessity of having power reserves available for the case of renewable source failure, power supplies which are economically discriminated in favor of coal fired power plants based on costs which fail to cover simple reproduction, and failure to respect the supply prices in the different tariff classes. In fact, cost and price comparison is only reasonable if it concerns electricity supplies providing the same benefit and having the same or similar parameters and characteristics. Two approaches to the search of an optimum alternative are described, viz. the system approach, respecting the aspects of the complex integrated power system, and the market approach, which is based on the lowest operator's cost of electricity purchase. (J.B.). 1 tab

Electric power in Canada 1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

The electric power industry in Canada in 1993 is reviewed. Items discussed include: the international context of Canadian electricity; regulatory structures; electricity and the environment; electricity consumption; electricity generation; generating capacity and reserve; electricity trade; transmission; electric utility investment and financing; costing and pricing; electricity outlook; demand-side management; and non-utility generation. Information is appended on installed capacity and electrical energy consumption in Canada, installed generating capacity, conventional thermal capacity by principal fuel type, provincial electricity imports and exports, Canadian electricity exports by exporter and importer, generation capacity by type, installed generating capacity expansion in Canada by station, federal environmental standards and guidelines, and prices paid by major electric utilities for non-utility generation. 26 figs., 90 tabs

Pricing of Fluctuations in Electricity Markets

OpenAIRE

Tsitsiklis, John N.; Xu, Yunjian

2012-01-01

In an electric power system, demand fluctuations may result in significant ancillary cost to suppliers. Furthermore, in the near future, deep penetration of volatile renewable electricity generation is expected to exacerbate the variability of demand on conventional thermal generating units. We address this issue by explicitly modeling the ancillary cost associated with demand variability. We argue that a time-varying price equal to the suppliers' instantaneous marginal cost may not achieve s...

How do electricity consumption excluding power intensive manufacturing, react on changes in the spot price?; Hvordan reagerer stroemforbruket i alminnelig forsyning paa endringer i spotpris?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Holstad, Magne; Pettersen, Finn Erik L.

2011-05-15

The purpose of this report is to analyse how electricity consumption excluding power intensive manufacturing will react on changes in the spot price on the basis of monthly data of the period 1996-2010 and an econometric error correction model. General consumption accounts for approximately 70 percent of the total net consumption of electricity in Norway. Households, services and other manufacturing than the power intensive account for the majority of this consumption. In order to estimate the net effect of the spot price on general electricity consumption, it is important to control for other variables that also affect the consumption. Since much of the electricity in general consumption is used for heating, one obvious and important explanatory variable is temperature. In addition to electricity price and temperature we assume that general consumption also depends on economic activity, price on light heating oil, the share of working days in the current month and a summer holiday dummy. In the consumption equation price can not be considered as an exogenous explanatory variable, since consumption affects price and vice versa. Hence, we have added a price equation that can be considered as an inverted supply equation. Both the consumption and the supply equation are specified dynamically in order to allow for slow adjustment of supply and consumption. The two equations of the model are estimated by two stage least square (2SLS). Full information maximum likelihood (FIML) is the most efficient estimation method in large samples, but a crucial assumption for consistent FIML-estimation is that the disturbance terms are normally distributed. A Jarque-Bera test of the error terms does not support this assumption in our data. R2 in the consumption equation is high. 96 per cent of the variation in the relative change in consumption is explained. In the price equation R2 is considerably lower. We find that if the spot price for Norway increases by 1 percent from one month

Evaluation of Electric Power Procurement Strategies by Stochastic Dynamic Programming

Science.gov (United States)

Saisho, Yuichi; Hayashi, Taketo; Fujii, Yasumasa; Yamaji, Kenji

In deregulated electricity markets, the role of a distribution company is to purchase electricity from the wholesale electricity market at randomly fluctuating prices and to provide it to its customers at a given fixed price. Therefore the company has to take risk stemming from the uncertainties of electricity prices and/or demand fluctuation instead of the customers. The way to avoid the risk is to make a bilateral contact with generating companies or install its own power generation facility. This entails the necessity to develop a certain method to make an optimal strategy for electric power procurement. In such a circumstance, this research has the purpose for proposing a mathematical method based on stochastic dynamic programming and additionally considering the characteristics of the start-up cost of electric power generation facility to evaluate strategies of combination of the bilateral contract and power auto-generation with its own facility for procuring electric power in deregulated electricity market. In the beginning we proposed two approaches to solve the stochastic dynamic programming, and they are a Monte Carlo simulation method and a finite difference method to derive the solution of a partial differential equation of the total procurement cost of electric power. Finally we discussed the influences of the price uncertainty on optimal strategies of power procurement.

Price elasticity matrix of demand in power system considering demand response programs

Science.gov (United States)

Qu, Xinyao; Hui, Hongxun; Yang, Shengchun; Li, Yaping; Ding, Yi

2018-02-01

The increasing renewable energy power generations have brought more intermittency and volatility to the electric power system. Demand-side resources can improve the consumption of renewable energy by demand response (DR), which becomes one of the important means to improve the reliability of power system. In price-based DR, the sensitivity analysis of customer’s power demand to the changing electricity prices is pivotal for setting reasonable prices and forecasting loads of power system. This paper studies the price elasticity matrix of demand (PEMD). An improved PEMD model is proposed based on elasticity effect weight, which can unify the rigid loads and flexible loads. Moreover, the structure of PEMD, which is decided by price policies and load types, and the calculation method of PEMD are also proposed. Several cases are studied to prove the effectiveness of this method.

The plunge in German electricity futures prices – Analysis using a parsimonious fundamental model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kallabis, Thomas; Pape, Christian; Weber, Christoph

2016-01-01

The German market has seen a plunge in wholesale electricity prices from 2007 until 2014, with base futures prices dropping by more than 40%. This is frequently attributed to the unexpected high increase in renewable power generation. Using a parsimonious fundamental model, we determine the respective impact of supply and demand shocks on electricity futures prices. The used methodology is based on a piecewise linear approximation of the supply stack and time-varying price-inelastic demand. This parsimonious model is able to replicate electricity futures prices and discover non-linear dependencies in futures price formation. We show that emission prices have a higher impact on power prices than renewable penetration. Changes in renewables, demand and installed capacities turn out to be similarly important for explaining the decrease in operation margins of conventional power plants. We thus argue for the establishment of an independent authority to stabilize emission prices. - Highlights: •We build a parsimonious fundamental model based on a piecewise linear bid stack. •We use the model to investigate impact factors for the plunge in German futures prices. •Largest impact by CO_2 price developments followed by demand and renewable feed-in. •Power plant operating profits strongly affected by demand and renewables. •We argue that stabilizing CO_2 emission prices could provide better market signals.

International positioning of South African electricity prices and commodity differentiated pricing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

George A. Thopila

2013-07-01

Full Text Available The South African electricity industry has seen a dramatic increase in prices over the past 3 years. This increase has been blanketed across all sectors and is based on a number of factors such as sector, usage and, in the case of domestic pricing, suburb. The cost of electricity in South Africa, particularly to the industrial sector, has been among the lowest in the world. In this paper, we analyse the recent price increases in the South African electricity sector and discuss the price determination mechanism employed by Eskom, South Africa's electricity provider. We also analyse the revenue and sales of Eskom and review the electricity price from an international perspective. The concept of differential pricing and international benchmarking is analysed as a possibility for the South African industrial electricity industry, so that all sectors are not adversely affected by across-the-board increases. Our aim is to raise the question of whether South Africa's electricity prices are in line with international increases and to suggest the possibility of differentiated prices in the local electricity sector.

Does wind energy mitigate market power in deregulated electricity markets?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ben-Moshe, Ori; Rubin, Ofir D.

2015-01-01

A rich body of literature suggests that there is an inverse relationship between wind power penetration rate into the electricity market and electricity prices, but it is unclear whether these observations can be generalized. Therefore, in this paper we seek to analytically characterize market conditions that give rise to this inverse relationship. For this purpose, we expand a recently developed theoretical framework to facilitate flexibility in modeling the structure of the electric industry with respect to the degree of market concentration and diversification in the ownership of wind power capacity. The analytical results and their attendant numerical illustrations indicate that the introduction of wind energy into the market does not always depress electricity prices. Such a drop in electricity prices is likely to occur when the number of firms is large enough or the ownership of wind energy is sufficiently diversified, or most often a combination of the two. Importantly, our study defines the circumstances in which the question of which type of firm invests in wind power capacity is crucial for market prices. - Highlights: • Studies show that electricity prices decrease with increased wind power capacity. • We investigate market conditions that give rise to this inverse relationship. • Average prices for wind energy are systematically lower than average market prices. • Conventional generation firms may increase market power by investing in wind farms. • Energy policy should seek to diversify the ownership of wind power capacity

An emissions trading scheme design for power industries facing price regulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Yong-Gun; Lim, Jong-Soo

2014-01-01

The electricity market, monopolistic in nature, with government price regulation, poses a serious challenge for policy makers with respect to the cost-effectiveness of emissions trading, particularly in Asian countries. This paper argues that a cap-and-trade regulatory system for indirect emissions combined with a rate-based allocation system for direct emissions can achieve market efficiency even in the presence of price and quantity controls in the electricity market. This particular policy mix could provide appropriate incentives for industries to reduce their electricity consumption while inducing power producers to reduce their direct carbon emissions cost-effectively in conditions where there is strict government control of electricity prices. Another advantage of the suggested policy mix is that it allows carbon leakage in cross-border power trades to be effectively eliminated. - Highlights: • A rate-based allocation induces power producers to minimize direct emissions. • A cap-and-trade on indirect emission induces firms to reduce electricity consumption. • These two can jointly achieve market efficiency even in the regulated power market

Reforming residential electricity tariff in China: Block tariffs pricing approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun, Chuanwang; Lin, Boqiang

2013-01-01

The Chinese households that make up approximately a quarter of world households are facing a residential power tariff reform in which a rising block tariff structure will be implemented, and this tariff mechanism is widely used around the world. The basic principle of the structure is to assign a higher price for higher income consumers with low price elasticity of power demand. To capture the non-linear effects of price and income on elasticities, we set up a translog demand model. The empirical findings indicate that the higher income consumers are less sensitive than those with lower income to price changes. We further put forward three proposals of Chinese residential electricity tariffs. Compared to a flat tariff, the reasonable block tariff structure generates more efficient allocation of cross-subsidies, better incentives for raising the efficiency of electricity usage and reducing emissions from power generation, which also supports the living standards of low income households. - Highlights: • We design a rising block tariff structure of residential electricity in China. • We set up a translog demand model to find the non-linear effects on elasticities. • The higher income groups are less sensitive to price changes. • Block tariff structure generates more efficient allocation of cross-subsidies. • Block tariff structure supports the living standards of low income households

Price-based Optimal Control of Electrical Power Systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jokic, A.

2007-09-10

The research presented in this thesis is motivated by the following issue of concern for the operation of future power systems: Future power systems will be characterized by significantly increased uncertainties at all time scales and, consequently, their behavior in time will be difficult to predict. In Chapter 2 we will present a novel explicit, dynamic, distributed feedback control scheme that utilizes nodal-prices for real-time optimal power balance and network congestion control. The term explicit means that the controller is not based on solving an optimization problem on-line. Instead, the nodal prices updates are based on simple, explicitly defined and easily comprehensible rules. We prove that the developed control scheme, which acts on the measurements from the current state of the system, always provide the correct nodal prices. In Chapter 3 we will develop a novel, robust, hybrid MPC control (model predictive controller) scheme for power balance control with hard constraints on line power flows and network frequency deviations. The developed MPC controller acts in parallel with the explicit controller from Chapter 2, and its task is to enforce the constraints during the transient periods following suddenly occurring power imbalances in the system. In Chapter 4 the concept of autonomous power networks will be presented as a concise formulation to deal with economic, technical and reliability issues in power systems with a large penetration of distributed generating units. With autonomous power networks as new market entities, we propose a novel operational structure of ancillary service markets. In Chapter 5 we will consider the problem of controlling a general linear time-invariant dynamical system to an economically optimal operating point, which is defined by a multiparametric constrained convex optimization problem related with the steady-state operation of the system. The parameters in the optimization problem are values of the exogenous inputs to

Independent power and cogeneration in Ontario's new competitive electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barnstable, A.G.

1999-01-01

The factors influencing the initial market pricing in the early years of Ontario's new electricity market were discussed with particular insight on the potential for near term development of independent power and cogeneration. The major factors influencing prices include: (1) no increase in retail prices, (2) financial restructuring of Ontario Hydro, (3) the Market Power Mitigation Agreement, (4) tighter power plant emissions standards, and (5) an electricity supply and demand balance. Generation competition is not expected to influence market pricing in the early years of the new electricity market. Prices will instead reflect the restructuring decisions of the Ontario government. The decision to have Ontario Power Generation Inc. (OPGI) as a single generator for Ontario Hydro's generation assets will ensure that average spot market pricing in the early market years will be close to a 3.8 c/kWh revenue cap

Modeling and forecasting electricity price jumps in the Nord Pool power market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Knapik, Oskar

extreme prices and forecasting of the price jumps is crucial for risk management and market design. In this paper, we consider the problem of the impact of fundamental price drivers on forecasting of price jumps in NordPool intraday market. We develop categorical time series models which take into account......For risk management traders in the electricity market are mainly interested in the risk of negative (drops) or of positive (spikes) price jumps, i.e. the sellers face the risk of negative price jumps while the buyers face the risk of positive price jumps. Understanding the mechanism that drive...

Labor demand effects of rising electricity prices: Evidence for Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cox, Michael; Peichl, Andreas; Pestel, Nico; Siegloch, Sebastian

2014-01-01

Germany continues to play a pioneering role in replacing conventional power plants with renewable energy sources. While this might be beneficial with respect to environmental quality, it also implies increasing electricity prices. The extent to which this is associated with negative impacts on employment depends on the interrelationship between labor and electricity as input factors in the production process. In this paper, we estimate cross-price elasticities between electricity and heterogeneous labor for the German manufacturing sector. We use administrative linked employer–employee micro-data combined with information on sector-level electricity prices and usage over the period 2003–2007. We find positive, but small conditional cross-price elasticities of labor demand with respect to electricity prices, which means that electricity as an input factor can be replaced by labor to a limited extent when the production level is held constant. In the case of adjustable output, we find negative unconditional cross-price elasticities, implying that higher electricity prices lead to output reductions and to lower labor demand, with low- and high-skilled workers being affected more than medium-skilled. Resulting adverse distributional effects and potential overall job losses may pose challenges for policy-makers in securing public support for the German energy turnaround. - Highlights: • We estimate cross-price elasticities for electricity and labor in manufacturing. • We use linked employer–employee micro-data from Germany for 2003 to 2007. • We find a weak substitutability between electricity and labor for constant output. • We find complementarity between electricity and labor for adjustable output. • Low- and high-skilled workers are more affected than medium-skilled

Electric power in Canada 1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

The electric power industry in Canada in 1993 is reviewed. Items discussed include: the international context of Canadian electricity; regulatory structures; electricity and the environment; electricity consumption; electricity generation; generating capacity and reserve; electricity trade; transmission; electric utility investment and financing; costing and pricing; electricity outlook; demand-side management; and non-utility generation. Appended information is presented on installed capacity and electrical energy consumption in Canada, installed generating capacity, conventional thermal capacity by principal fuel type, provincial electricity imports and exports, Canadian electricity exports by exporter and importer, generation capacity by type, installed generating capacity expansion in Canada by station, federal environmental standards and guidelines, and prices paid by major electric utilities for non-utility generation. 23 figs., 95 tabs

Electric power in Canada 1992

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

The electric power industry in Canada in 1991 is reviewed. Items discussed include: the international context of Canadian electricity; regulatory structures; electricity and the environment; electricity consumption; electricity generation; generating capacity and reserve; electricity trade; transmission; electric utility investment and financing; costing and pricing; electricity outlook; demand-side management; and non-utility generation. Appended information is presented on installed capacity and electrical energy consumption in Canada, installed generating capacity, conventional thermal capacity by principal fuel type, provincial electricity imports and exports, Canadian electricity exports by exporter and importer, generation capacity by type, installed generating capacity expansion in Canada by station, federal environmental standards and guidelines, and prices paid by major electric utilities for non-utility generation. 26 figs., 90 tabs

The impact of the Market Power Mitigation Agreement on power prices in Ontario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chute, R. G.

2000-01-01

Market power was defined by the Market Design Committee (MDC) as 'the ability to sustain a significant price increase profitably', although it is generally understood to refer to the 'overwhelming dominance of generating capacity and supply capability of Ontario Power Generation' (OPG), the former generating arm of Ontario Hydro. The MDC sought to address market power within the context of the Ontario Government's White Paper on electricity sector reform, entitled 'Directions for Change'. The solution was the Market Power Mitigation Agreement (MPMA), a negotiated agreement between the MDC and OPG that established market share goals and provided incentives and penalties to meet these goals. Briefly, the major instrument used by the MPMA is the price of electric power sold in the Ontario market to reward, or penalize the actions of OPG in moving towards its market share goals as defined in the MPMA. This paper explains the principal elements of the MPMA and how they are expected to influence the market prices for power in Ontario. The principal elements of the Agreement are price cap and rebate, decontrol targets, and intertie capacity and limits, while the instruments comprise licence conditions, settlement agreements, market rules and ministerial directives. The issue of the impact of the MPMA on the cost of power, and the future prospects of market power after the expiration of the MPMA are also addressed

The impact of electricity price changes on industrial prices and the general price level in Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lim, Seul-Ye; Yoo, Seung-Hoon

2013-01-01

Electricity has played an important role in the economic development of Korea and, thus, has become a critical factor in sustaining the well-being of the Korean people. This study attempts to investigate the impact of electricity price changes on industrial prices and the general price level using input–output (I–O) analysis. To this end, we apply the I–O price model to the 2011 I–O table recently produced by the Bank of Korea, paying particular attention to the electricity sector by considering it as exogenous and then investigating its impacts. The impacts of the electricity price changes on each industrial sector's prices and the general price level are quantitatively derived. For example, the overall impact of a 10% increase in electricity price on the Korean national economy is estimated to be 0.4367%. We also report the results from the model with the electricity sector endogenous and the model with endogenous electricity and labor sectors. This information can be usefully utilized in decision-making regarding price management for electricity. - Highlights: • We investigate the impact of electricity price changes on the Korean economy. • We use the input–output (I–O) analysis specifying the electricity sector as exogenous. • We apply the I–O price model to 2010 I–O table produced by the Bank of Korea. • The impact of a 10% increase in electricity price on the Korean economy is 0.2176%

Electric Cars and Oil Prices

OpenAIRE

Azar, Jose

2009-01-01

This paper studies the joint dynamics of oil prices and interest in electric cars, measured as the volume of Google searches for related phrases. Not surprisingly, I find that oil price shocks predict increases in Google searches for electric cars. Much more surprisingly, I also find that an increase in Google searches predicts declines in oil prices. The high level of public interest in electric cars between April and August of 2008 can explain approximately half of the decline in oil prices...

An electricity price model with consideration to load and gas price effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Min-xiang; Tao, Xiao-hu; Han, Zhen-xiang

2003-01-01

Some characteristics of the electricity load and prices are studied, and the relationship between electricity prices and gas (fuel) prices is analyzed in this paper. Because electricity prices are strongly dependent on load and gas prices, the authors constructed a model for electricity prices based on the effects of these two factors; and used the Geometric Mean Reversion Brownian Motion (GMRBM) model to describe the electricity load process, and a Geometric Brownian Motion(GBM) model to describe the gas prices; deduced the price stochastic process model based on the above load model and gas price model. This paper also presents methods for parameters estimation, and proposes some methods to solve the model.

Market Prices in a Power Market with more than 50% Wind Power

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skytte, Klaus; Grohnheit, Poul Erik

2018-01-01

Denmark has the highest proportion of wind power in the world. Wind power provided a world record of 39.1% of the total annual Danish electricity consumption in 2014 with as much as 51.7% in Western Denmark. Many would argue that the present power markets are not designed for such high shares...... of wind power production and that it would be hard to get good and stable prices. However, analyses in this chapter show that the Nordic power market works, extreme events have been few, and the current infrastructure and market organization has been able to handle the amount of wind power installed so...... far. It is found that geographical bidding areas for the wholesale electricity market reflect external transmission constraints caused by wind power. The analyses in this chapter use hourly data from West Denmark—which has the highest share of wind energy in Denmark and which is a separate price area...

Market Prices in a Power Market with more than 50% Wind Power

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skytte, Klaus; Grohnheit, Poul Erik

2017-01-01

Denmark has the highest proportion of wind power in the world. Wind power provided a world record of 39.1% of the total annual Danish electricity consumption in 2014 with as much as 51.7% in Western Denmark. Many would argue that the present power markets are not designed for such high shares...... of wind power production and that it would be hard to get good and stable prices. However, analyses in this chapter show that the Nordic power market works, extreme events have been few, and the current infrastructure and market organization has been able to handle the amount of wind power installed so...... far. It is found that geographical bidding areas for the wholesale electricity market reflect external transmission constraints caused by wind power. The analyses in this chapter use hourly data from West Denmark—which has the highest share of wind energy in Denmark and which is a separate price area...

Buying Renewable Electric Power in Montgomery County, Maryland

Science.gov (United States)

Cember, Richard P.

2008-08-01

From mid-August 2007 until mid-August 2008, my home electricity supply was 100% wind-generated. My experience in switching to wind-generated electric power may be of interest to fellow AGU members for three reasons. First, Montgomery County, Md., where I live, is one of the few jurisdictions in the United States that has both an electric power tax and a renewable energy credit. The county is therefore a case study in price-based public policy for greenhouse gas emissions control. Second, I was surprised by the comparatively small price difference (or ``price premium'') between wind-generated and conventionally generated power in the county, and I believe that Eos readers will be similarly surprised. Third, because so many U.S. federal agencies concerned with Earth science are based in the Washington, D. C., area, a high concentration of AGU members live in Montgomery County and may be personally interested in evaluating the price of reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the generation of their own residential electricity.

Power systems locational marginal pricing in deregulated markets

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Hui-Fung Francis

Since the beginning of the 1990s, the electricity business is transforming from a vertical integrating business to a competitive market operations. The generation, transmission, distribution subsystem of an electricity utility are operated independently as Genco (generation subsystem), Transco (transmission subsystem), and Distco (distribution subsystem). This trend promotes more economical inter- and intra regional transactions to be made by the participating companies and the users of electricity to achieve the intended objectives of deregulation. There are various types of electricity markets that are implemented in the North America in the past few years. However, transmission congestion management becomes a key issue in the electricity market design as more bilateral transactions are traded across long distances competing for scarce transmission resources. It directly alters the traditional concept of energy pricing and impacts the bottom line, revenue and cost of electricity, of both suppliers and buyers. In this research, transmission congestion problem in a deregulated market environment is elucidated by implementing by the Locational Marginal Pricing (LMP) method. With a comprehensive understanding of the LMP method, new mathematical tools will aid electric utilities in exploring new business opportunities are developed and presented in this dissertation. The dissertation focuses on the development of concept of (LMP) forecasting and its implication to the market participants in deregulated market. Specifically, we explore methods of developing fast LMP calculation techniques that are differ from existing LMPs. We also explore and document the usefulness of the proposed LMP in determining electricity pricing of a large scale power system. The developed mathematical tools use of well-known optimization techniques such as linear programming that are support by several flow charts. The fast and practical security constrained unit commitment methods are the

Forecasting electricity spot-prices using linear univariate time-series models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo; Hlouskova, Jaroslava; Kossmeier, Stephan; Obersteiner, Michael

2004-01-01

This paper studies the forecasting abilities of a battery of univariate models on hourly electricity spot prices, using data from the Leipzig Power Exchange. The specifications studied include autoregressive models, autoregressive-moving average models and unobserved component models. The results show that specifications, where each hour of the day is modelled separately present uniformly better forecasting properties than specifications for the whole time-series, and that the inclusion of simple probabilistic processes for the arrival of extreme price events can lead to improvements in the forecasting abilities of univariate models for electricity spot prices. (Author)

Market structure and the stability and volatility of electricity prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bask, Mikael; Widerberg, Anna

2009-01-01

By using a novel approach in this paper, (λ,σ 2 )-analysis, we have found that electricity prices most of the time have increased in stability and decreased in volatility when the Nordic power market has expanded and the degree of competition has increased. That electricity prices at Nord Pool have been generated by a stochastic dynamic system that most often has become more stable during the step-wise integration of the Nordic power market means that this market is less sensitive to shocks after the integration process than it was before this process. This is good news

Perspectives of the electric power industry amid the transforming global power generation markets

Science.gov (United States)

Makarov, A. A.; Mitrova, T. A.; Veselov, F. V.; Galkina, A. A.; Kulagin, V. A.

2017-10-01

A scenario-based prognosis of the evolution of global power generation markets until 2040, which was developed using the Scaner model-and-information complex, was given. The perspective development of fuel markets, vital for the power generation industry, was considered, and an attempt to predict the demand, production, and prices of oil, gas, coal, and noncarbon resources across various regions of the world was made. The anticipated decline in the growth of the global demand for fossil fuels and their sufficiency with relatively low extraction expenses will maintain the fuel prices (the data hereinafter are given as per 2014 prices) lower than their peak values in 2012. The outrunning growth of demand for electric power is shown in comparison with other power resources by regions and large countries in the world. The conditions of interfuel competition in the electric power industry considering the changes in anticipated fuel prices and cost indicators for various power generation technologies were studied. For this purpose, the ratios of discounted costs of electric power production by new gas and coal TPPs and wind and solar power plants were estimated. It was proven that accounting the system effects (operation modes, necessary duplicating and reserving the power of electric power plants using renewable energy sources) notably reduces the competitiveness of the renewable power industry and is not always compensated by the expected lowering of its capital intensity and growth of fuel for TPPs. However, even with a moderate (in relation to other prognoses) growth of the role of power plants using renewable energy sources, they will triple electric power production. In this context, thermal power plants will preserve their leadership covering up to 60% of the global electric power production, approximately half using gas.

Sensitivity of portuguese electricity market prices to solar PV penetration : an analysis of 2016 prices

OpenAIRE

Cordeiro De Sousa, João

2017-01-01

The reduction in price of solar PV technology led, in the recent years, multiple investors to apply for installing new solar PV power plants in Portugal which would operate without subsidies or feed-in-tari s. In 2016 it was reported the approval of construction of such power plants and given the low variable cost of this technology it is expected that their penetration would reduce the electricity market prices. Hence, before doing the economic assessment of potential new sola...

Electric power statistics from independence to establishment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-02-01

This paper reports power statistics from independence to establishment pf KEPIC. It has the lists of electricity industry, electric equipment on the whole country power equipment at the independence and development of power facility, power generation about merit of power plants, demand according to types and use, power loss, charge for electric power distribution, power generation and generating cost, financial lists on income measurement and financing, meteorological phenomena and amount of rainfall electric power development, international statistics on major countries power generation and compare power rates with general price.

Testing causal relationships between wholesale electricity prices and primary energy prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakajima, Tadahiro; Hamori, Shigeyuki

2013-01-01

We apply the lag-augmented vector autoregression technique to test the Granger-causal relationships among wholesale electricity prices, natural gas prices, and crude oil prices. In addition, by adopting a cross-correlation function approach, we test not only the causality in mean but also the causality in variance between the variables. The results of tests using both techniques show that gas prices Granger-cause electricity prices in mean. We find no Granger-causality in variance among these variables. -- Highlights: •We test the Granger-causality among wholesale electricity and primary energy prices. •We test not only the causality in mean but also the causality in variance. •The results show that gas prices Granger-cause electricity prices in mean. •We find no Granger-causality in variance among these variables

Principles, effects and problems of differential power pricing policy for energy intensive industries in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Boqiang; Liu, Jianghua

2011-01-01

The Chinese government canceled the preferential power pricing policies for energy intensive industries and imposed a reverse differential pricing policy in order to promote energy efficiency and the adjustment and upgrading of the industrial structure. This article analyzes the principles of China's differential power pricing policy, the externalities of energy and the modified Ramsey pricing rule, and also points out the policy implications of China's differential power pricing policy. In our samples, we investigate eight power intensive products in the Henan province with respect to their power consumption per unit (power intensity), electricity cost, total cost, the electricity tariff and profit, in order to test the effects of the differential power pricing policy. The results show that the primary effect of the differential power pricing policy is that enterprises decrease their total costs and improve their productive efficiencies in advance, in anticipating a higher electricity tariff. -- Research highlights: → The article suggests a modified Ramsey pricing model where demand elasticity is replaced by elasticity of energy consumption and polluting elasticity to internalize the negative externality of high energy intensive industry. → The article assesses the effects of differential pricing policy through on-site survey of high energy intensive industries in Henan province and analyzes the reasons behind those effects. → The article presents the lessons and policy implications of implementing differential pricing policy aimed at energy conservation and emission reduction.

Markets in real electric networks require reactive prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hogan, W.W.

1996-01-01

Extending earlier seminal work, the author finds that locational spot price differences in an electric network provide the natural measure of the appropriate internodal transport charge. However, the problem of loop flow requires different economic intuition for interpreting the implications of spot pricing. The Direct Current model, which is the usual approximation for estimating spot prices, ignores reactive power effects; this approximation is best when thermal constraints create network congestion. However, when voltage constraints are problematic, the DC Load model is insufficient; a full AC Model is required to determine both real and reactive spot prices. 16 figs., 3 tabs., 22 refs

An empirical examination of restructured electricity prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knittel, C.R.; Roberts, M.R.

2005-01-01

We present an empirical analysis of restructured electricity prices. We study the distributional and temporal properties of the price process in a non-parametric framework, after which we parametrically model the price process using several common asset price specifications from the asset-pricing literature, as well as several less conventional models motivated by the peculiarities of electricity prices. The findings reveal several characteristics unique to electricity prices including several deterministic components of the price series at different frequencies. An 'inverse leverage effect' is also found, where positive shocks to the price series result in larger increases in volatility than negative shocks. We find that forecasting performance in dramatically improved when we incorporate features of electricity prices not commonly modelled in other asset prices. Our findings have implications for how empiricists model electricity prices, as well as how theorists specify models of energy pricing. (author)

Short-term electricity price forecast based on the improved hybrid model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dong Yao; Wang Jianzhou; Jiang He; Wu Jie

2011-01-01

Highlights: → The proposed models can detach high volatility and daily seasonality of electricity price. → The improved hybrid forecast models can make full use of the advantages of individual models. → The proposed models create commendable improvements that are relatively satisfactorily for current research. → The proposed models do not require making complicated decisions about the explicit form. - Abstract: Half-hourly electricity price in power system are volatile, electricity price forecast is significant information which can help market managers and participants involved in electricity market to prepare their corresponding bidding strategies to maximize their benefits and utilities. However, the fluctuation of electricity price depends on the common effect of many factors and there is a very complicated random in its evolution process. Therefore, it is difficult to forecast half-hourly prices with traditional only one model for different behaviors of half-hourly prices. This paper proposes the improved forecasting model that detaches high volatility and daily seasonality for electricity price of New South Wales in Australia based on Empirical Mode Decomposition, Seasonal Adjustment and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average. The prediction errors are analyzed and compared with the ones obtained from the traditional Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model. The comparisons demonstrate that the proposed model can improve the prediction accuracy noticeably.

Short-term electricity price forecast based on the improved hybrid model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dong Yao, E-mail: dongyao20051987@yahoo.cn [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Wang Jianzhou, E-mail: wjz@lzu.edu.cn [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Jiang He; Wu Jie [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China)

2011-08-15

Highlights: {yields} The proposed models can detach high volatility and daily seasonality of electricity price. {yields} The improved hybrid forecast models can make full use of the advantages of individual models. {yields} The proposed models create commendable improvements that are relatively satisfactorily for current research. {yields} The proposed models do not require making complicated decisions about the explicit form. - Abstract: Half-hourly electricity price in power system are volatile, electricity price forecast is significant information which can help market managers and participants involved in electricity market to prepare their corresponding bidding strategies to maximize their benefits and utilities. However, the fluctuation of electricity price depends on the common effect of many factors and there is a very complicated random in its evolution process. Therefore, it is difficult to forecast half-hourly prices with traditional only one model for different behaviors of half-hourly prices. This paper proposes the improved forecasting model that detaches high volatility and daily seasonality for electricity price of New South Wales in Australia based on Empirical Mode Decomposition, Seasonal Adjustment and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average. The prediction errors are analyzed and compared with the ones obtained from the traditional Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model. The comparisons demonstrate that the proposed model can improve the prediction accuracy noticeably.

Computation of spot prices and congestion costs in large interconnected power systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mukerji, R.; Jordan, G.A.; Clayton, R.; Haringa, G.E.

1995-01-01

Foremost among the new paradigms for the US utility industry is the ''poolco'' concept proposed by Prof. William W. Hogan of Harvard University. This concept uses a central pool or power exchange in which physical power is traded based on spot prices or market clearing prices. The rapid and accurate calculation of these ''spot'' prices and associated congestion costs for large interconnected power systems is the central tenet upon which the poolco concept is based. The market clearing price would be the same throughout the system if there were no system losses and transmission limitations did not exist. System losses cause small differences in market clearing prices as the cost of supplying a MW at various load buses includes the cost of losses. Transmission limits may cause large differences in market clearing prices between regions as low cost generation is blocked by the transmission constraints from serving certain loads. In models currently in use in the electric power industry spot price calculations range from ''bubble diagram'' type contract path models to full electrical representation such as GE-MAPS. The modeling aspects of the full electrical representation are included in the Appendix. The problem with the bubble diagram representation is that these models are liable to produce unacceptably large errors in the calculation of spot prices and congestion costs. The subtleties of the calculation of spot prices and congestion costs are illustrated in this paper

Three essays on pricing and risk management in electricity markets

Science.gov (United States)

Kotsan, Serhiy

2005-07-01

A set of three papers forms this dissertation. In the first paper I analyze an electricity market that does not clear. The system operator satisfies fixed demand at a fixed price, and attempts to minimize "cost" as indicated by independent generators' supply bids. No equilibrium exists in this situation, and the operator lacks information sufficient to minimize actual cost. As a remedy, we propose a simple efficient tax mechanism. With the tax, Nash equilibrium bids still diverge from marginal cost but nonetheless provide sufficient information to minimize actual cost, regardless of the tax rate or number of generators. The second paper examines a price mechanism with one price assigned for each level of bundled real and reactive power. Equilibrium allocation under this pricing approach raises system efficiency via better allocation of the reactive power reserves, neglected in the traditional pricing approach. Pricing reactive power should be considered in the bundle with real power since its cost is highly dependent on real power output. The efficiency of pricing approach is shown in the general case, and tested on the 30-bus IEEE network with piecewise linear cost functions of the generators. Finally the third paper addresses the problem of optimal investment in generation based on mean-variance portfolio analysis. It is assumed the investor can freely create a portfolio of shares in generation located on buses of the electrical network. Investors are risk averse, and seek to minimize the variance of the weighted average Locational Marginal Price (LMP) in their portfolio, and to maximize its expected value. I conduct simulations using a standard IEEE 68-bus network that resembles the New York - New England system and calculate LMPs in accordance with the PJM methodology for a fully optimal AC power flow solution. Results indicate that the network topology is a crucial determinant of the investment decision as line congestion makes it difficult to deliver power to

Can developing countries benefit from innovative pricing in the power sector?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hill, L.J.

1991-01-01

This study explores electricity pricing as a demand-side management (DSM) strategy, looking to the developed country experience for insights into the types of approaches currently used, their effects, and the direction in which electricity pricing is headed. The discussion should be especially useful for electric utilities in developing countries that are exploring alternatives to capacity expansion to meet current and future electric power demand. For these electric utilities, demand-side options are especially important under today's conditions in which the capital cost of new generating capacity is increasing rapidly, international funds for expanding power sectors are not expected to be sufficient for meeting projected capacity needs and environmental concerns over fossil fuel emissions have raised new questions about constructing thermal power plants. (author). 21 refs, 2 tabs

Landgericht Stuttgart condemns power price boycotters to payment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1981-01-01

With its judgment of 18th December 1980 - 10 0 164/80 - the LG Stuttgart has condemned an electricity customer who, being an opponent of nuclear energy, had been keeping back ten per cent of the power price and transfering this amount to a trust account to the payment of the arrears. A public utility company cooperating with a nuclear power plant and supplying its customers with electric power from this npp had submitted its claim. (orig./HP) [de

Lower electricity prices and greenhouse gas emissions due to rooftop solar: empirical results for Massachusetts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaufmann, Robert K.; Vaid, Devina

2016-01-01

Monthly and hourly correlations among photovoltaic (PV) capacity utilization, electricity prices, electricity consumption, and the thermal efficiency of power plants in Massachusetts reduce electricity prices and carbon emissions beyond average calculations. PV utilization rates are highest when the thermal efficiencies of natural gas fired power plants are lowest, which reduces emissions of CO 2 and CH 4 by 0.3% relative to the annual average emission rate. There is a positive correlation between PV utilization rates and electricity prices, which raises the implied price of PV electricity by up to 10% relative to the annual average price, such that the average MWh reduces electricity prices by $0.26–$1.86 per MWh. These price reductions save Massachusetts rate-payers $184 million between 2010 and 2012. The current and net present values of these savings are greater than the cost of solar renewable energy credits which is the policy instrument that is used to accelerate the installation of PV capacity. Together, these results suggest that rooftop PV is an economically viable source of power in Massachusetts even though it has not reached socket parity. - Highlights: •Implied price of PV up to 10% greater than the annual average price. •PV saves Massachusetts rate-payers $184 million in 2010–2012. •Annual savings are greater than the cost of solar renewable energy credits. •Savings rise longer lifetime of PV systems and pay period for SREC's shortened. •PV reduces emissions of CO 2 and CH 4 by 0.3% relative to the annual average.

Ontario electricity outlook : smaller reserve margins and higher prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alexander, C.; Kalevar, P.

2002-01-01

Privatization of Hydro One has been delayed, but this will not postpone the scheduled launch of restructuring the electricity markets in Ontario on May 1, 2002. The main concern of Ontario consumers is whether they will undergo an energy crisis such as the one experienced in California. A report released in February 2002 stated that electricity bills will be higher under the new electricity regime. It appears that electricity supply reserve margins will be tighter than originally thought, raising price volatility in the summer and fall. The authors claim that the chance for an energy crisis are low because of the added generating capacity. However, regardless of whether consumers sign a fixed term price contract with retailers, it is likely that electricity bills will be higher in 2002 and 2003. The Independent Electricity Market Operator (IMO) is assuring the public that the power generation resources currently available are sufficient to meet expected demand. However, in June through July, it is possible that reserves will fall short. It is also evident that charges for distribution, transmission and other services will be higher under the restructured system. Electricity bills are likely to be about 5 to 15 per cent higher in 2003 than they were before March 1, 2002. Higher prices might not last indefinitely. Initially, they will be used to pay off the debt, but competition and opportunities for profit should allow for greater efficiencies and innovation in Ontario's electricity system and prices could potentially fall lower than pre-deregulation prices. 1 tab., 3 figs

Electric power annual 1998. Volume 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1999-04-01

The purpose of this report, Electric Power Annual 1998 Volume 1 (EPAVI), is to provide a comprehensive overview of the electric power industry during the most recent year for which data have been collected, with an emphasis on the major changes that occurred. In response to the changes of 1998, this report has been expanded in scope. It begins with a general review of the year and incorporates new data on nonutility capacity and generation, transmission information, futures prices from the Commodity futures Trading commission, and wholesale spot market prices from the pennsylvania-new Jersey-Maryland Independent System Operator and the California Power Exchange. Electric utility statistics at the Census division and State levels on generation, fuel consumption, stocks, delivered cost of fossil fuels, sales to ultimate customers, average revenue per kilowatthour of electricity sold, and revenues from those retail sales can be found in Appendix A. The EPAVI is intended for a wide audience, including Congress, Federal and State agencies, the electric power industry, and the general public.

Area price and demand response in a market with 25% wind power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grohnheit, Poul Erik; Andersen, Frits Møller; Larsen, Helge V.

2011-01-01

Denmark, east and west of the Great Belt are bidding areas with separate hourly area prices for the Nord Pool power exchange, covering four Nordic countries and parts of Germany. The share of wind power has now increased to 25% on an annual basis in western Denmark. This has a significant impact not only on the electricity wholesale prices, but also on the development of the market. Hourly market data are available from the website of Danish TSO from 1999. In this paper these data are analysed for the period 2004–2010. Electricity generators and customers may respond to hourly price variations, which can improve market efficiency, and a welfare gain is obtained. An important limitation for demand response is events of several consecutive hours with extreme values. The analysis in this paper is a summary and update of some of the issues covered by the EU RESPOND project. It shows that extreme events were few, and the current infrastructure and market organisation have been able to handle the amount of wind power installed so far. This recommends that geographical bidding area for the wholesale electricity market reflects external transmission constraints caused by wind power. - Highlights: ► More than 10 years of hourly electricity market data are available for western Denmark. ► Current infrastructure and market organisation could handle 25% wind power. ► Demand response to hourly electricity prices leads to limited welfare gain. ► Consecutive hours with high or low price, or high or low wind are relatively few.

Carbon price signal. Impact Analysis on the European Electricity System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2016-03-01

The Paris Agreement signed by 195 countries late in December 2015, after COP 21, created a new basis for efficient cooperation between countries in the fight against climate change. The technologies being rolled out by the electricity sector will have very different impacts on climate change and, for the time being, investments other than public aid for renewable energies are being guided primarily by prices. To shed more slight on the issue of greenhouse gas emissions, which is closely related to the challenges addressed at COP21, RTE initiated a study in 2015 based on the models used in its Generation Adequacy Report. ADEME wanted to contribute to this effort and offer its support. The present document outlines the approach taken to assessing the impact of the carbon price signal on emissions from the European electric power system, its production costs and its structural evolution over the medium term. This approach was discussed with members of the 'Network Outlook Committee' of the Transmission System Users' Committee which includes environmental NGOs as well as the main economic actors from the power sector. Key findings resulting from the analysis developed in this report include: Simulations conducted with the current generation fleet show that the carbon price would have to be close to euro 30/tonne at the European level to drive a significant reduction in emissions (about 100 million tonnes a year, or 15 %) from the European power sector. A higher price of about euro 100/tonne would help drive an emissions reduction of close to 30%. Over the medium and long terms, beyond an impact on the number of hours fossil fuel power plants would be run, having a high carbon price would send a signal encouraging investment in renewable energies and could incentivise the development of flexible and storage capacity. It would notably guarantee the profitability of gas-fired plants and renewable power development. The following assumptions are factored into the study

A Vector Autoregressive Model for Electricity Prices Subject to Long Memory and Regime Switching

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Haldrup, Niels; Nielsen, Frank; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

2007-01-01

A regime dependent VAR model is suggested that allows long memory (fractional integration) in each of the regime states as well as the possibility of fractional cointegra- tion. The model is relevant in describing the price dynamics of electricity prices where the transmission of power is subject...... to occasional congestion periods. For a system of bilat- eral prices non-congestion means that electricity prices are identical whereas congestion makes prices depart. Hence, the joint price dynamics implies switching between essen- tially a univariate price process under non-congestion and a bivariate price...

Price-elastic demand in deregulated electricity markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Siddiqui, Afzal S.

2003-05-01

The degree to which any deregulated market functions efficiently often depends on the ability of market agents to respond quickly to fluctuating conditions. Many restructured electricity markets, however, experience high prices caused by supply shortages and little demand-side response. We examine the implications for market operations when a risk-averse retailer's end-use consumers are allowed to perceive real-time variations in the electricity spot price. Using a market-equilibrium model, we find that price elasticity both increases the retailers revenue risk exposure and decreases the spot price. Since the latter induces the retailer to reduce forward electricity purchases, while the former has the opposite effect, the overall impact of price responsive demand on the relative magnitudes of its risk exposure and end-user price elasticity. Nevertheless, price elasticity decreases cumulative electricity consumption. By extending the analysis to allow for early settlement of demand, we find that forward stage end-user price responsiveness decreases the electricity forward price relative to the case with price-elastic demand only in real time. Moreover, we find that only if forward stage end-user demand is price elastic will the equilibrium electricity forward price be reduced.

The effects of utility DSM programs on electricity costs and prices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hirst, E.

1991-11-01

More and more US utilities are running more and larger demand-side management (DSM) programs. Assessing the cost-effectiveness of these programs raises difficult questions for utilities and their regulators. Should these programs aim to minimize the total cost of providing electric-energy services or should they minimize the price of electricity? This study offers quantitative estimates on the tradeoffs between total costs and electricity prices. This study uses a dynamic model to assess the effects of energy-efficiency programs on utility revenues, total resource costs, electricity prices, and electricity consumption for the period 1990 to 2010. These DSM programs are assessed under alternative scenarios. In these cases, fossil-fuel prices, load growth, the amount of excess capacity the utility has in 1990, planned retirements of power plants, the financial treatment of DSM programs, and the costs of energy- efficient programs vary. These analyses are conducted for three utilities: a ``base`` that is typical of US utilities; a ``surplus`` utility that has excess capacity, few planned retirements, and slow growth in fossil-fuel prices and incomes; and a ``deficit`` utility that has little excess capacity, many planned retirements, and rapid growth in fossil-fuel prices and incomes. 28 refs.

EU emission trading scheme and the effect on the price of electricity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

The Electricity Market Working Group and the Climate Change Policy Working Group of the Nordic Council of Ministers, has commissioned ECON Analysis to prepare this report. The report analyses the demand and supply of GHG emission allowances and the price of emission allowances for the period 2005-2007 and 2008-2012 and the effect on the electricity price in the Nordic electricity market. The demand for emissions allowances has then been estimated for different scenarios, with different assumption on burden sharing between sectors and international participation and the supply of emission allowances is determined by the marginal abatement costs. Based on available information on abatement costs the supply of allowances is then estimated. The market balance between the demand and supply for allowances then determines the price of emission allowances. The effect on the electricity price is simulated with ECON's model for the Nordic power market to quantitatively estimate the effect from emissions trading on the electricity price, production, consumption, trade, etc. (BA)

Modeling of demand response in electricity markets : effects of price elasticity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Banda, E.C.; Tuan, L.A.

2007-01-01

A design mechanism for the optimal participation of customer load in electricity markets was presented. In particular, this paper presented a modified market model for the optimal procurement of interruptible loads participating in day-ahead electricity markets. The proposed model considers the effect of price elasticity and demand-response functions. The objective was to determine the role that price elasticity plays in electricity markets. The simulation model can help the Independent System Operator (ISO) identify customers offering the lowest price of interruptible loads and load flow patterns that avoid problems associated with transmission congestion and transmission losses. Various issues associated with procurement of demand-response offerings such as advance notification, locational aspect of load, and power factor of the loads, were considered. It was shown that demand response can mitigate price volatility by allowing the ISO to maintain operating reserves during peak load periods. It was noted that the potential benefits of the demand response program would be reduced when price elasticity of demand is taken into account. This would most likely occur in actual developed open electricity markets, such as Nordpool. This study was based on the CIGRE 32-bus system, which represents the Swedish high voltage power system. It was modified for this study to include a broad range of customer characteristics. 18 refs., 2 tabs., 14 figs

A framework for cost-based pricing of transmission and ancillary services in competitive electric power markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zobian, A.; Ilic, M.D.

1995-01-01

In this paper the authors propose a framework for accurate cost determination and pricing of transmission and ancillary services in competitive electric power markets. The proposed framework is based on their anticipation of the evolving environment and industry structure. They envision the future as a competitive energy market with a centralized control entity that coordinates system activities, prices transmission and ancillary services and controls various system resources. This control entity has control over a certain (pre-defined) geographical area. It is proposed that the system operation and control be kept as they are currently done in control centers, no major change in these functions is required for the proposed pricing strategy. The pricing strategy is divided into two main classes based on time scale separation and firmness, short and long term, firm and interruptible contracts. The approach is based on superposition of different transaction on the network, and a three-part tariff design. The charges are directly related to the impact of each transaction on the system

Power System Transient Stability Improvement Using Demand Side Management in Competitive Electricity Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hu, Weihao; Wang, Chunqi; Chen, Zhe

2012-01-01

Since the hourly spot market price is available one day ahead in Denmark, the price could be transferred to the consumers and they may shift some of their loads from high price periods to the low price periods in order to save their energy costs. The optimal load response to an electricity price...... for demand side management generates different load profiles and may provide an opportunity to improve the transient stability of power systems with high wind power penetrations. In this paper, the idea of the power system transient stability improvement by using optimal load response to the electricity...... price is proposed. A 102-bus power system which represents a simplified model of the western Danish power system is chosen as the study case. Simulation results show that the optimal load response to electricity prices is an effective measure to improve the power system transient stability with high...

Ten-year statistics of the electric power supply. Status and tendencies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-12-01

The ten-year statistics of the electric power supply in Denmark for 1990-1999 presents in tables and figures the trend of the electric power supply sector during the last ten years. The tables and figures present information on total energy consumption, combined heat and power generation, fuel consumption and the environment, the technical systems, economy and pricing, organization of the electricity supply, auto-production of electricity and information on electricity prices and taxes for households and industry in various countries. (LN)

Trend of electricity prices in privatised industry: UK compared to other european countries 1985-1994

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lorenzoni, A.

1995-01-01

Great efforts are devoted nowadays in many countries to reform the electric power system in order to achieve higher efficiency. The model under consideration is, more or less overtly, the new Electricity Supply Industry (ESI) in England and Wales which first transformed the vertically integrated state monopoly and introduced as the same time competition in electricity generation and supply. This paper analyses the trend of the final prices in UK during the ESI structural transformation between 1985 and 1994, since the final price of electricity is acknowledge as a good indicator of the performance of an ESI, and highlights the impact of privatisation on the different classes of consumers. It is investigated the evolution of the ratio between regulated-prices and free-market prices to further understand who profited from the new structure of the industry; the study continues with a comparison among the prices in UK, Italy and France. The analysis applies first to the nominal prices, and secondly to the deflated prices, in order to compare different years at constant purchase power

Seasonal variation of prices of sugar cane, ethanol and electric power; Variacao estacional dos precos da cana-de-acucar, alcool combustivel e energia eletrica

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Melo, Carmem Ozana de; Silva, Gerson Henrique da; Bueno, Osmar de Carvalho [Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho (UNESP), Botucatu, SP (Brazil); Esperancini, Maura Seiko Tsutsui [Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Parana (UNIOESTE), Francisco Beltrao, PR (Brazil)

2010-07-01

The aim of this study was to assess the seasonal price of sugar cane, fuel alcohol (hydrated and anhydrous) and electricity tariffs as a way of aiding tool for optimization of energy generation, using biomass originating from cane sugar. Using the method of moving average centered was concluded that cane and electricity rates were close to seasonal average, with low range of prices, suggesting the non-occurrence of seasonal variation in prices. Unlike the seasonal indices of ethanol showed seasonal variation of prices with greater amplitude of seasonal index. Thus, the results suggest that the utilization of by-products of sugar cane to produce electrical power points to the prospect of reducing risks associated with variations in the price of ethanol, thereby contributing to greater stability and possibility to those involved in planning alcohol sector. (author)

Pricing of contract options for electric power; Precificacao de contrato de opcoes de energia eletrica

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Takahashi, Leticia; Gunn, Laura Keiko; Correia, Paulo B. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (FEM/UNICAMP), SP (Brazil). Fac. de Engenharia Mecanica. Dept. de Energia

2008-07-01

The reorganization of the electric sector has improved the opportunity of energy trade through contracts, which have to be considered on the risk evaluation for generating companies. Different types of contracts have been used in electric energy commercialization. This work develops a model for option contract pricing. The classic model of options pricing used in the financial market is based in Black- Scholes. Due to the inherent feature of the Brazilian electrical system, with a strong predominance of hydroelectricity, the seasonal swing of the electricity price is the main source of contractual risk. So, the Black-Scholes model very is not adjusted. To deal with the uncertainties, this work uses an approach based on analysis of scenarios and binomial trees. Case studies are analyzed with binomial tree to calculate the price of the option contract. (author)

Competitive electricity markets around the world: approaches to price risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masson, G.S.

1999-01-01

This chapter focuses on wholesale electricity markets, and traces the histories of the US and UK power industries. Risk management in the new electricity market is examined covering price risk, location basis risk, volume risk, and margin and cross-commodity risk. Specific competitive market systems that have been implemented around the world including mandatory pools, voluntary pools, and bilateral markets are discussed. Panels describing the functions of ancillary services, electricity price volatility, and the problems of capacity payments and the UK pool are presented

The futures and forward price differential in the Nordic electricity market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wimschulte, Jens [University of Regensburg (Germany)

2010-08-15

This note investigates price differentials between electricity forwards and portfolios of short-term futures with identical delivery periods at the Nordic Power Exchange (Nord Pool). Since both contracts are traded at the same exchange, there is no influence of, for example, different market microstructure and default risk when examining the effect of the marking-to-market of futures on the price differential. Although the prices of the futures portfolios are, on average, below the corresponding forward prices, these price differentials are, on average, not statistically significant and not economically significant when taking transaction costs into account. Given the characteristics of the electricity contracts under observation, this is consistent with the predictions of the model and indicates efficient pricing in the Nord Pool forward market in contrast to previous results. (author)

The futures and forward price differential in the Nordic electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wimschulte, Jens

2010-01-01

This note investigates price differentials between electricity forwards and portfolios of short-term futures with identical delivery periods at the Nordic Power Exchange (Nord Pool). Since both contracts are traded at the same exchange, there is no influence of, for example, different market microstructure and default risk when examining the effect of the marking-to-market of futures on the price differential. Although the prices of the futures portfolios are, on average, below the corresponding forward prices, these price differentials are, on average, not statistically significant and not economically significant when taking transaction costs into account. Given the characteristics of the electricity contracts under observation, this is consistent with the predictions of the model and indicates efficient pricing in the Nord Pool forward market in contrast to previous results. (author)

Ten-year statistics of the electric power supply. Status and tendencies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-12-01

The ten-year statistics of the electric power supply in Denmark for 1991-2000 presents in tables and figures the trend of the electric power supply sector during the last ten years. The tables and figures present information on total energy consumption, combined heat and power generation, fuel consumption and the environment, the technical systems, economy and pricing, organization of the electricity supply, and information on electricity prices and taxes for households and industry in various countries. (LN)

Market power analysis for the Iranian electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asgari, Mohammad Hossein; Monsef, Hassan

2010-01-01

The market power problem in Iranian electricity market is addressed in this study. This paper by using various structural indices of market power and reviewing market results analyzes the intensity of competition in Iran's electricity market and examines whether this market is functioning at an appropriate level of efficiency. In this article the most well-known indices of market power are calculated in two approaches for two different scenarios (current situation and future outlook of generation sector's ownership in Iran's power industry). Comparing the results of these scenarios promises more competitive market for the second scenario. Calculating Residual Supply Index for Iran's power market shows despite admissible values of concentration ratios, due to supply scarcity during periods when the demand is close to the total available capacity, some suppliers can exercise market power even with a relatively small market share. The most important price and load indices like weighted average prices and load/price duration curves of Iranian electricity market during March 2007-March 2008 are also analyzed in this paper. These results imply the existence of economic withholding. The main limiting factors of competition and significant implemented countermeasures for market power mitigation in Iran's electricity market are also mentioned.

Introducing of Green Pricing in the Korean Electricity Sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boo, K.J. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

2001-11-01

In recent years, the Korean electricity sector has been undergoing restructuring, represented by de-regulation and promotion of competition. Competition will, eventually, force electricity power producers to overly rely on cheap fuels such as coal and nuclear in order to reduce the cost of power generation, which is against the international Green Round, including the UNFCCC. Accordingly, some measures are needed not to let such an market failure discourage the efforts to protect the environment. Up to date, a number of policy measures have been worked out by the Korean government to promote the use of renewable energy in power generation. Such efforts, however, have not been quite successful. Innovative policy tools are called for to promote renewable energy-base power generation in the emerging competitive electricity market. Among various approaches that have been tried and worked out in the developed countries to adequately address this problem, a most popular approach is green pricing. Green pricing is to let the customers pay for the additional cost incurred from installing renewable energy-based generating facilities, consequently making it viable and promoting an increased use of renewables in the power generation. Accordingly, a market research to investigate the willingness to pay for this premium was conducted as a prerequisite to design a green pricing. The major findings of this market research are: First, while limited to the industrial and buildings sectors, awareness of environmental and green pricing is not so disappointing as compared with those in the develop countries(41.3%). Second, companies have not yet fully developed the concept of green pricing and are mainly motivated to purchase green power in the perspective of a great cause rather than in pursuit of direct and indirect economic benefits. Third, regarding fuel choice for power generation, respondents express a strong opposition to nuclear, coal, and oil, while they are more favorable to

Electricity to natural gas competition under customer-side technological change: a marginal cost pricing analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gulli', Francesco

2004-01-01

This paper aims at evaluating the impact of technological change (on the customer side of the meter) on the network energy industry (electricity and natural gas). The performances of the small gas fired power technologies and the electrical reversible heat pumps have improved remarkably over the last ten years, making possible (or more viable) two opposite technological trajectories: the fully gas-based system, based on the use of small CHP (combined heat and power generation) plants, which would involve a wide decentralisation of energy supply; the fully electric-based system, based on the use of reversible electric heat pumps, which would imply increasing centralisation of energy supply. The analysis described in this paper attempts to evaluate how these two kinds of technological solutions can impact on inter-service competition when input prices are ste equals to marginal costs of supply in each stage of the electricity and natural gas industries. For this purpose, unbundled prices over time and over space are simulated. In particular the paper shows that unbundling prices over space in not very important in affecting electricity to natural gas competition and that, when prices are set equal to long-run marginal costs, the fully electric-based solution (the reversible heat pump) is by far preferable to the fully gas-based solution (the CHP gas fired small power plant). In consequence, the first best outcome of the technological change would involve increasing large power generation and imported (from the utility grid) electricity consumption. Given this framework, we have to ask ourselves why operators, regulators and legislators are so optimistic about the development of the fully gas-based solutions. In this respect, the paper suggests that market distortions (such as market power, energy taxation and inefficient pricing regulation) might have give an ambiguous representation of the optimal technological trajectory, inducing to overestimate the social value

The effects of utility DSM programs on electricity costs and prices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hirst, E.

1991-11-01

More and more US utilities are running more and larger demand-side management (DSM) programs. Assessing the cost-effectiveness of these programs raises difficult questions for utilities and their regulators. Should these programs aim to minimize the total cost of providing electric-energy services or should they minimize the price of electricity This study offers quantitative estimates on the tradeoffs between total costs and electricity prices. This study uses a dynamic model to assess the effects of energy-efficiency programs on utility revenues, total resource costs, electricity prices, and electricity consumption for the period 1990 to 2010. These DSM programs are assessed under alternative scenarios. In these cases, fossil-fuel prices, load growth, the amount of excess capacity the utility has in 1990, planned retirements of power plants, the financial treatment of DSM programs, and the costs of energy- efficient programs vary. These analyses are conducted for three utilities: a base'' that is typical of US utilities; a surplus'' utility that has excess capacity, few planned retirements, and slow growth in fossil-fuel prices and incomes; and a deficit'' utility that has little excess capacity, many planned retirements, and rapid growth in fossil-fuel prices and incomes. 28 refs.

Essays on pricing electricity and electricity derivatives in deregulated markets

Science.gov (United States)

Popova, Julia

2008-10-01

This dissertation is composed of four essays on the behavior of wholesale electricity prices and their derivatives. The first essay provides an empirical model that takes into account the spatial features of a transmission network on the electricity market. The spatial structure of the transmission grid plays a key role in determining electricity prices, but it has not been incorporated into previous empirical models. The econometric model in this essay incorporates a simple representation of the transmission system into a spatial panel data model of electricity prices, and also accounts for the effect of dynamic transmission system constraints on electricity market integration. Empirical results using PJM data confirm the existence of spatial patterns in electricity prices and show that spatial correlation diminishes as transmission lines become more congested. The second essay develops and empirically tests a model of the influence of natural gas storage inventories on the electricity forward premium. I link a model of the effect of gas storage constraints on the higher moments of the distribution of electricity prices to a model of the effect of those moments on the forward premium. Empirical results using PJM data support the model's predictions that gas storage inventories sharply reduce the electricity forward premium when demand for electricity is high and space-heating demand for gas is low. The third essay examines the efficiency of PJM electricity markets. A market is efficient if prices reflect all relevant information, so that prices follow a random walk. The hypothesis of random walk is examined using empirical tests, including the Portmanteau, Augmented Dickey-Fuller, KPSS, and multiple variance ratio tests. The results are mixed though evidence of some level of market efficiency is found. The last essay investigates the possibility that previous researchers have drawn spurious conclusions based on classical unit root tests incorrectly applied to

Regime jumps in electricity prices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

R. Huisman (Ronald); R.J. Mahieu (Ronald)

2003-01-01

textabstractMany countries are liberalizing their energy markets. Participants in these markets are exposed to market risk due to the characteristics of electricity price dynamics. Electricity prices are known to be mean-reverting very volatile and subject to frequent spikes. Models that describe

The European electricity market. What are the effects of market power on prices and the environment? Keywords: Electricity market; liberalisation; market power; game theory; environmental impacts; Northwestern Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lise, W.

2005-07-01

This paper presents a static computational game theoretic COMPETES model. This model is used to study the economic and environmental effects of the liberalisation of the European electricity market. The COMPETES model takes strategic interaction into account. The model is calibrated to four European countries: Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands. To analyse the impact of emission trading, a fixed permit price per tonne CO2 emissions is introduced. The effects are studied under different market structures depending on the ability of firms to exercise market power. The results indicate that the effects of liberalisation depend on the resulting market structure, while a reduction in market power of large producers may be beneficial for the consumer (i.e. lower prices), this is not necessarily true for the environment (i.e. lower reduction in CO2 emissions)

Real-time control of power systems using nodal prices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jokic, A.; Lazar, M.; Bosch, van den P.P.J.

2009-01-01

This article presents a novel control scheme for achieving optimal power balancing and congestion management in electrical power systems via nodal prices. We develop a dynamic controller that guarantees economically optimal steady-state operation while respecting all line flow constraints in

Research of Charging(Discharging Orderly and Optimizing Load Curve for Electric Vehicles Based on Dynamic Electric Price and V2G

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yang Shuai

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Firstly, using the Monte Carlo method and simulation analysis, this paper builds models for the behaviour of electric vehicles, the conventional charging model and the fast charging model. Secondly, this paper studies the impact that the number of electric vehicles which get access to power grid has on the daily load curve. Then, the paper put forwards a dynamic pricing mechanism of electricity, and studies how this dynamic pricing mechanism guides the electric vehicles to charge orderly. Last but not the least, the paper presents a V2G mechanism. Under this mechanism, electric vehicles can charge orderly and take part in the peak shaving. Research finds that massive electric vehicles’ access to the power grid will increase the peak-valley difference of daily load curve. Dynamic pricing mechanism and V2G mechanism can effectively lead the electric vehicles to take part in peak-shaving, and optimize the daily load curve.

A dispatch based pricing model for the New Zealand electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ring, B.J.; Read, E.G.

1996-01-01

Work undertaken for the New Zealand transmission grid is described. Prices derived from an observed system dispatch can be used in the short-run coordination of a competitive wholesale electricity market. These prices vary across space and time, reflecting differences in marginal costs and changing demand. Markets for emergency reserve generating capacity can be integrated with a market for power. Used in conjunction with longer term contracts, such short-run prices have the potential to allow competitive power system operation without significant loss of coordination efficiencies. 2 figs., 26 refs

Photovoltaic power: the inadequate purchase price

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Finon, D.

2009-01-01

The current policy of guaranteed purchase prices applied to photovoltaic power lacks rationality: prices are not graduated, commitment times are too long, there is no capping to capacity developed, subsidies (tax credit, direct subsidy, etc) are complex and give too favourable a return time. The lack of differentiation between products may also delay the emergence of new PV technologies. As a result, it is legitimate to envisage a cost/benefit analysis of future subsidies and to wonder about Frances ability, as a second rank player, to catch up with the leaders (Germany, Japan, United States). The report does not criticize policy based on purchase prices in itself: this is suitable or technology close to commercial operation in that it guarantees stable terms close to wholesale electricity market prices. It does, however, criticize adequacy in terms of less advanced PV technology, which results in purchase prices five times that of wind power. The report proposes re-targeting the system to take account of the significant stakes in PV power. Costly incentives for installing land PV cells and units should be quickly reduced, while industrial demonstration budgets deserve increases to further the development of new technologies (improved crystal silicon and thin layers). The demonstration phase and industrial development should be the primary focus, where a large part of potentially promising reductions in costs are likely to be achieved. (author)

The long-run price sensitivity dynamics of industrial and residential electricity demand: The impact of deregulating electricity prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adom, Philip Kofi

2017-01-01

This study examines the demand-side of Ghana's electricity sector. We test two important related hypotheses: (1) deregulation of electricity price does not promote energy conservation, and (2) demand-price relationship is not an inverted U-shaped. The Stock and Watson dynamic OLS is used to address the so-called second-order bias. The result showed that, deregulation of electricity price in Ghana has induced behaviours that are more consistent with energy conservation improvements. The demand-price relationship is an inverted U, which suggests that there is a price range that end-users can tolerate further price rise and still increase their consumption of electricity. However, the degree of price tolerability is higher for residential consumers than industrial consumers. The simulation results showed that, further economic growth is likely to compromise energy conservation but more in the industrial sector than the residential sector. On the other hand, future crude oil price is likely to deteriorate energy conservation in the initial years after 2016, but this trend is likely to reverse after the year 2020. Pricing mechanisms are potent to induce energy conservation but inadequate. The results suggest that they should be complemented with other stringent policies such as a mandatory energy reduction policy, investment in renewables, and personalization of energy efficiency programs. - Highlights: • Studies the demand-side of the electricity sector • Deregulating electricity price promotes energy conservation • Demand-price relationship is an inverted U-shaped • Pricing policies should be combined with other energy mandatory reduction policies

Optimal Operation of Electric Vehicles in Competitive Electricity Markets and Its Impact on Distribution Power Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

2011-01-01

represent the future of electricity markets in some ways, is chosen as the studied power system in this paper. The impact of the optimal operation strategy for electric vehicles together with the optimal load response to spot market price on the distribution power system with high wind power penetrations...... are also discussed in the paper. Simulation results show that the proposed optimal operation strategy is an effective measure to achieve minimum energy costs of the PEV. The optimal operation strategy of the PEV and the optimal load response may have significant effects on the distribution power system......Since the hourly spot market price is available one day ahead in Denmark, the electricity price could be transferred to the consumers and they may make some optimal charge and discharge schedules for their electric vehicles in order to minimize their energy costs. This paper presents an optimal...

Electricity prices in the Finnish retail market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lehto, Eero

2011-01-01

This study focuses, firstly, on the pricing of electricity in the Finnish retail market. In particular, the impact of the ownership structure on prices is tested empirically. Secondly, the influence of low-cost electricity sources on retail prices is considered. The question about whether the average fuel costs rather than the wholesale price determine the retail prices is thus addressed. The supply side behaviour characterised may explain the passivity of client activity in the seemingly competitive Finnish market. - Research highlights: → Ownership has a strong impact on retail prices in the Finnish electricity market. → Locally owned companies' rates are 5-15 per cent lower than investor owned companies' rates. → Own low cost acquisition of electricity helps local firms to keep prices at low levels.

Marginal cost pricing of electricity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Edsbaecker, G.

1980-01-01

The discipline is economics and the phenomenon is the power system. The purpose of this system is to produce, transmit and consume electricity in such a way that the sum of consumers and suppliers surplus in maximized. This is accomplished by the means of marginal cost pricing. The concepts of the power system and the relations prevailing between and among them are picked out, defined and analyzed in the frames of economic theory and operations research. Methods are developed aiming at efficient prices so that the short run function of the power system is managed in such a way that the sum of conumers and suppliers surplus is maximized within the framwork of this system, i.e. value of service of the power system is maximized. The task of developing such methods is accomplished subject to mixed production resources, transmission losses, periodic demand and also when there is lack of information concerning future and cost conditions. The main results are methods which take to account the conditions stated above. Methods not only allowing for traditional cost minimizing but also for maximation of value of service including a process of reaching optimum by gradual adaption when demand and cost curves are not known in advance. (author)

Analysis of competition and market power in the wholesale electricity market in India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shukla, Umesh Kumar; Thampy, Ashok

2011-01-01

The electricity reforms were initiated in India with the objective of promoting competition in the electricity market. In order to promote competition, the Electricity Act 2003 was enacted and various policy initiatives were taken by the Government of India. Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) also facilitated competition through the regulatory framework of availability based tariff, Indian Electricity Grid Code, open access in inter-state transmission, inter-state trading and power exchanges. Despite these initiatives, electricity prices increased in the Wholesale Electricity Market in India (WEMI). This paper analyses the market structure and competitiveness in the WEMI. There are, of course, various potential reasons for the rise in the electricity price. This paper seeks to investigate, if market power was one of the reasons for increase in market prices. Concentration ratio, Herfindahl-Hirschman index, Supply Margin Assessment, and Residual Supply Index have been used to measure market power. This paper also uses the price-cost mark-up to examine, if exercise of market power led to higher margins. The analysis suggests that market power of firms may be part of the reason for the increase in electricity prices in WEMI. The study suggests various measures to increase competition in the WEMI.

Tariffs, investments and financing of the electric power sector in Uruguay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iglesias, M.I.

1991-05-01

An approach to the study of electricity prices in Uruguay, emphasizing the relation linking prices, investment funds and loan requirements for the electric utility is presented. The main part of the work is a survey of the evolution of electricity prices, amounts of investment, an external debt of the Uruguayan electric power sector from 1973 to 1988. There is also a prospective analysis, to determine whether the current electricity price level would be able to ensure the electric system expansion, if current trends are maintained. (author)

Comprehensive evaluation of power grid projects' investment benefits under the reform of transmission and distribution price

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yongli; Wang, Gang; Zuo, Yi; Fan, Lisha; Ling, Yunpeng

2017-03-01

On March 15, 2015, the Central Office issued the "Opinions on Further Deepening the Reform of Electric Power System" (Zhong Fa No. 9). This policy marks the central government officially opened a new round of electricity reform. As a programmatic document under the new situation to comprehensively promote the reform of the power system, No. 9 document will be approved as a separate transmission and distribution of electricity prices, which is the first task of promoting the reform of the power system. Grid tariff reform is not only the transmission and distribution price of a separate approval, more of the grid company input-output relationship and many other aspects of deep-level adjustments. Under the background of the reform of the transmission and distribution price, the main factors affecting the input-output relationship, such as the main business, electricity pricing, and investment approval, financial accounting and so on, have changed significantly. The paper designed the comprehensive evaluation index system of power grid projects' investment benefits under the reform of transmission and distribution price to improve the investment efficiency of power grid projects after the power reform in China.

Reference costs of the electric power production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-06-01

This study periodically realized by the DGEMP aims to compare the competitiveness of the different channels of electric power production, for different utilization conditions. The first part ''reference costs of the 2003 electric power production'' examines the prices of the electric power produced by different channels in particular in the framework of the industrial implementing in 2015. The nuclear and thermal power plants are concerned. The second part is devoted to the decentralized production channels (wind energy, photovoltaic, cogeneration heat-electricity) is under construction and will be presented next year. (A.L.B.)

Nuclear Power Plants in a Competitive Electricity Market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jankauskas, V.

2002-01-01

Electricity demand is growing in the world by an average rate of 3% and, according to the International Energy Agency, is going to keep this pace of growth for the 1st quarter of the 21st century. At the same time, the role of the nuclear in the world energy mix is diminishing, and in 2020 only 9% of the world electricity will be produced at the nuclear plants versus 17% in 2000. The main reasons for the nuclear power diminishing share in the world market are not environmental or safety problems, as one may assume, but technical and economical. Long construction time, high capital cost, huge liabilities connected with the spent nuclear fuel and radioactive waste treatment, storage and final disposal are the main factors restricting the further growth of the nuclear power. Nevertheless, in the liberalized markets (U.K., Germany, Scandinavian countries) nuclear power plants are operating rather successfully. In a short run nuclear plants may become very competitive as they have very low short-run marginal costs, but in the long run they may become very in competitive. The Ignalina NPP plays the dominant ro]e in the Lithuanian electricity market, producing more than 75% of the total domestic electricity. It produces the cheapest electricity in Lithuania, mostly due to its higher availability, than the thermal power plants. The price of electricity sold by Ignalina is also lower as it does not cover all costs connected with the future decommissioning of the plant, spent fuel storage and final disposal. If at least part of this cost were included into the selling price, Ignalina might become highly competitive in a liberalised electricity market. As the Lithuanian Electricity law requires to deregulate electricity. generation prices, these prices should be set by the market. (author)

Electricity prices differences between France and Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hensing, I.; Nolden, A.; Riechmann, Ch.; Schulz, W.

1998-01-01

High electricity prices in Germany especially as compared to France have played an important role in the electricity liberalization debate in Germany. The price differences can largely be explained by cost differences in electricity generation, the electricity grids, personnel cost and local taxes. Further analysis suggests that efficiency improvements upon market liberalization will only partly remove these price and cost differentials. Parts of the cost differentials are attributable to politically-motivated regulations and the (future) regulation of network functions. This implies that Germany can only expect to arrive at internationally comparable electricity prices if it advances with a reform of political and monopoly regulations alongside liberalizing electricity generation and trade. (author)

Electrical markets, energy security and technology diversification: nuclear as cover against gas and carbon price risks?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roques, F.A.; Newbery, D.M.; Nuttall, W.J.; Neufville, R. de

2005-01-01

Recent tension in the oil and gas markets has brought back the concept of energy offer diversification. Electrical production technology diversification in a country helps improve the security of supply and make up for the negative effects of hydrocarbons price variations. The portfolio and real options theories help to quantify the optimum diversification level for a country or a power company. The cover value of a nuclear investment for a power company facing cost uncertainties (price of gas and of carbon dioxide emission permit) and proceeds (price of electricity) is assessed. A strong link between the prices of gas and electricity reduces incentives to private producers to diversify, disputing the capacity of a liberalized electrical market to achieve optimum technology diversity from a domestic point of view. (authors)

Swiss electrical power association

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1983-01-01

Milestones of electrical power development in Switzerland during 1982 are quoted. An energy balance is shown for the utilisation of 864,630 terajoules of primary energy. This is related to global data on per capita power consumption. In the electricity generation section, annual load factors are given for the four nuclear stations. A brief review is made of hydro potential and monthly export/import figures for power to other countries (mostly export, especially in summer). Total electrical power output grew about 1.3% in the last year. Recent transmission line developments are noted, mostly 2x380kV, and including a link with Austria. In the financial section, consumer price indices are quoted for liquid and solid fuel, gas and electricity since 1966. Under administration, details are listed of the main and about 18 supporting Committees and working groups with special functions (e.g. tariffs, electrical vehicles). Public relations have included nuclear power press conferences, a mobile video unit, information leaflets for the media and a teaching seminar. (G.C.)

A Regional Time-of-Use Electricity Price Based Optimal Charging Strategy for Electrical Vehicles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jun Yang

2016-08-01

Full Text Available With the popularization of electric vehicles (EVs, the out-of-order charging behaviors of large numbers of EVs will bring new challenges to the safe and economic operation of power systems. This paper studies an optimal charging strategy for EVs. For that a typical urban zone is divided into four regions, a regional time-of-use (RTOU electricity price model is proposed to guide EVs when and where to charge considering spatial and temporal characteristics. In light of the elastic coefficient, the user response to the RTOU electricity price is analyzed, and also a bilayer optimization charging strategy including regional-layer and node-layer models is suggested to schedule the EVs. On the one hand, the regional layer model is designed to coordinate the EVs located in different time and space. On the other hand, the node layer model is built to schedule the EVs to charge in certain nodes. According to the simulations of an IEEE 33-bus distribution network, the performance of the proposed optimal charging strategy is verified. The results demonstrate that the proposed bilayer optimization strategy can effectively decrease the charging cost of users, mitigate the peak-valley load difference and the network loss. Besides, the RTOU electricity price shows better performance than the time-of-use (TOU electricity price.

Ramsey prices in the Italian electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bigerna, Simona; Bollino, Carlo Andrea

2016-01-01

In this paper, we derive optimal zonal prices in the Italian day-ahead electricity market using estimation of a complete system of hourly demand in 2010–2011. In Italy, the hourly equilibrium price for all buyers is computed as a uniform average of supply zonal prices, resulting from market splitting due to line congestion. We model ex-ante individual bids expressed by heterogeneous consumers, which are distinguished by geographical zones. Using empirical estimations, we compute demand elasticity values and new zonal prices, according to a Ramsey optimal scheme. This is a new approach in the wholesale electricity market literature, as previous studies have discussed the relative merit of zonal prices, considering only the issue of line congestion. Our results show that the optimal pricing scheme can improve welfare in the day-ahead Italian electricity market, with respect to both the existing uniform price scheme and the proposal to charge the existing supply zonal prices to the demand side. - Highlights: • We model and estimate the demand of heterogeneous buyers in the electricity market. • Transmission line congestion creates welfare distortions in the market. • We derive optimal Ramsey prices in the Italian day-ahead electricity market. • We compare optimal prices with historical ones showing how to improve welfare.

Time variation in European carbon pass-through rates in electricity futures prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huisman, Ronald; Kiliç, Mehtap

2015-01-01

The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme is a means to price emission allowances. Electricity market prices should reflect these market prices of emission allowances as they are a cost factor for power producers. The pass-through rate is the fraction of the emission allowance price that is passed through to electricity market prices. It is often measured and presented as an average or a fixed estimate over some time period. However, we expect that the pass-through rates should actually vary over time as electricity supply curves reflect the marginal costs of different producers that differ in emission intensity. We apply a Kalman Filter approach to observe pass-through rates in Germany and U.K. and find strong support for time varying instead of fixed pass-through rates. Although policy makers are interested in the impact of a policy on average, our results indicate that one needs to be careful with the time-frame over which pass-through rates are measured for policy evaluation, as an incorrect chosen evaluation period could cause an under- or overestimation of the pass-through rate. In addition, our model helps to provide policy makers with insight in the development of pass-through rates when market circumstances change with respect to power production. - Highlights: • We analyse the time-variation of the emission pass-through rate in power prices. • We examine historical futures prices for Germany and the U.K. • We test the hypothesis by using the Kalman Filter methodology. • Strong support is found that pass-through rates vary over time. • The chosen time-frame for pass-through rates is important for policy evaluation.

Small Signal Stability Improvement of Power Systems Using Optimal Load Responses in Competitive Electricity Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hu, Weihao; Su, Chi; Chen, Zhe

2011-01-01

Since the hourly spot market price is available one day ahead in Denmark, the price could be transferred to the consumers and they may shift some of their loads from high price periods to the low price periods in order to save their energy costs. The optimal load response to an electricity price...... price is proposed. A 17-bus power system with high wind power penetrations, which resembles the Eastern Danish power system, is chosen as the study case. Simulation results show that the optimal load response to electricity prices is an effective measure to improve the small signal stability of power...... for demand side management generates different load profiles and may provide an opportunity to improve the small signal stability of power systems with high wind power penetrations. In this paper, the idea of power system small signal stability improvement by using optimal load response to the electricity...

Impacts of demand response and renewable generation in electricity power market

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Zhechong

This thesis presents the objective of the research which is to analyze the impacts of uncertain wind power and demand response on power systems operation and power market clearing. First, in order to effectively utilize available wind generation, it is usually given the highest priority by assigning zero or negative energy bidding prices when clearing the day-ahead electric power market. However, when congestion occurs, negative wind bidding prices would aggravate locational marginal prices (LMPs) to be negative in certain locations. A load shifting model is explored to alleviate possible congestions and enhance the utilization of wind generation, by shifting proper amount of load from peak hours to off peaks. The problem is to determine proper amount of load to be shifted, for enhancing the utilization of wind generation, alleviating transmission congestions, and making LMPs to be non-negative values. The second piece of work considered the price-based demand response (DR) program which is a mechanism for electricity consumers to dynamically manage their energy consumption in response to time-varying electricity prices. It encourages consumers to reduce their energy consumption when electricity prices are high, and thereby reduce the peak electricity demand and alleviate the pressure to power systems. However, it brings additional dynamics and new challenges on the real-time supply and demand balance. Specifically, price-sensitive DR load levels are constantly changing in response to dynamic real-time electricity prices, which will impact the economic dispatch (ED) schedule and in turn affect electricity market clearing prices. This thesis adopts two methods for examining the impacts of different DR price elasticity characteristics on the stability performance: a closed-loop iterative simulation method and a non-iterative method based on the contraction mapping theorem. This thesis also analyzes the financial stability of DR load consumers, by incorporating

The Impact of Emissions Trading on the Price of Electricity in Nord Pool : Market Power and Price Determination in the Nordic Electricity Market

OpenAIRE

Oranen, Anna

2006-01-01

The objective of this thesis is to find out how dominant firms in a liberalised electricity market will react when they face an increase in the level of costs due to emissions trading, and how this will effect the price of electricity. The Nordic electricity market is chosen as the setting in which to examine the question, since recent studies on the subject suggest that interaction between electricity markets and emissions trading is very much dependent on conditions specific to each market ...

Pool Strategy of a Price-Maker Wind Power Producer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zugno, Marco; Morales González, Juan Miguel; Pinson, Pierre

2013-01-01

We consider the problem of a wind power producer trading energy in short-term electricity markets. The producer is a price-taker in the day-ahead market, but a price-maker in the balancing market, and aims at optimizing its expected revenues from these market floors. The problem is formulated...... or median forecast of wind power distribution. Finally, sensitivity analyses are carried out to assess the impact on the offering strategy of the producer's penetration in the market, of the correlation between wind power production and residual system deviation, and of the shape of the forecast...

Strategic prospects of the electric power industry of Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Makarov, A. A.; Veselov, F. V.; Makarova, A. S.; Novikova, T. V.; Pankrushina, T. G.

2017-11-01

The prospects for the development of the electric power industry of Russia adopted at a regular stage of working out the Energy Strategy and the General Plan of Distribution of the Electric Power Facilities are discussed. The monitoring of the progress in the implementation of the Energy Strategies for the periods until 2020 and 2030 adopted in 2003 and 2009 has, in general, validated the correctness of the estimated volumes of the energy resource production under overestimation of the expected domestic demand owing to an excessively optimistic forecast of the real development of the economy. The priority lines of the national energy policy in electric power and allied industries proposed in the Energy Strategy for the period until 2035 are considered. The tools for implementation of most of the proposals and the effectiveness of their implementation have yet to be defined more concretely. The development of the energy sector and the electric power industry under the conservative and optimistic scenarios of the development of the country's economy has been predicted using the SCANER modeling and information system, viz., the dynamics of the domestic consumption, export, and production of the primary energy and the electric power has been determined and the commissioning and structure of the required generating capacities and the consumption of the basic types of the energy resources by the electric power industry and the centralized heat supply systems has been optimized. Changes in the economic efficiency of the nuclear and thermal power plants under the expected improvements on their cost and performance characteristics and an increase in the domestic fuel prices are presented. The competitiveness of the wind and solar power production under Russian conditions has been evaluated considering the necessity of reservation and partial duplication of their capacities when operated in the power supply systems. When optimizing the electric power industry as a subsystem

Generating efficiency: The power of price caps in the public and private Spanish electricity sectors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arocena, P.; Price, C.W.

1999-01-01

Economic regulation of firms with market power has placed increasing emphasis on incentive-based regulation such as price caps. The move to such regulation often coincides with a change of ownership, making it difficult to separate the incentive effects. We focus on the effect of regulation alone by analysing the imposition of price cap type regulation on both publicly and privately owned Spanish electricity generators in 1988, several years before three was any change of ownership. Our initial results indicate that the publicly owned generators are generally more efficient than the private ones, but that the effect of price caps is to increase the efficiency of private sector plants faster than those in the public sector. We introduce two novelties into the analysis: we incorporate levels of CO2 and NOx emissions; and we include declared plant availability as an output. The outcome is dependent on the choice of inputs and outputs, and we argue that our measures are more appropriate than traditional measures for a system of central despatch for generators facing environmental constraints. (au) 37 refs

Green Power voluntary purchases: Price elasticity and policy analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mewton, Ross T.; Cacho, Oscar J.

2011-01-01

Green Power schemes offer electricity from renewable energy sources to customers for a higher price than ordinary electricity. This study examines the demand characteristics of Green Power in Australia and policies which could increase its sales. A sample of 250 pooled time series and cross sectional observations was used to estimate a statistically significant elasticity of demand for Green Power with respect to price of -0.96 with a 95% confidence interval of ±68%. The wide variation in market penetration between jurisdictions and between countries for Green Power, and the low awareness of Green Power found by surveys indicate that Green Power sales could be increased by appropriate marketing and government policies. The most cost effective means to increase sales was found to be advertising campaigns although only one Australian example was found, in the state of Victoria in 2005. It was also found that full tax deductibility of the Green Power premium to residential customers, exemption from the Goods and Services Tax and a tax rebate for Green Power are all probably less cost effective for promoting sales than direct government purchase of Green Power, in terms of cost per unit of increased sales.

Green Power voluntary purchases: Price elasticity and policy analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mewton, Ross T., E-mail: rtmewton@hotmail.co [University of New England (Australia); Cacho, Oscar J. [School of Business Economics and Public Policy, School of Economics, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351 (Australia)

2011-01-15

Green Power schemes offer electricity from renewable energy sources to customers for a higher price than ordinary electricity. This study examines the demand characteristics of Green Power in Australia and policies which could increase its sales. A sample of 250 pooled time series and cross sectional observations was used to estimate a statistically significant elasticity of demand for Green Power with respect to price of -0.96 with a 95% confidence interval of {+-}68%. The wide variation in market penetration between jurisdictions and between countries for Green Power, and the low awareness of Green Power found by surveys indicate that Green Power sales could be increased by appropriate marketing and government policies. The most cost effective means to increase sales was found to be advertising campaigns although only one Australian example was found, in the state of Victoria in 2005. It was also found that full tax deductibility of the Green Power premium to residential customers, exemption from the Goods and Services Tax and a tax rebate for Green Power are all probably less cost effective for promoting sales than direct government purchase of Green Power, in terms of cost per unit of increased sales.

Green Power voluntary purchases. Price elasticity and policy analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mewton, Ross T. [University of New England (Australia); Cacho, Oscar J. [School of Business Economics and Public Policy, School of Economics, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351 (Australia)

2011-01-15

Green Power schemes offer electricity from renewable energy sources to customers for a higher price than ordinary electricity. This study examines the demand characteristics of Green Power in Australia and policies which could increase its sales. A sample of 250 pooled time series and cross sectional observations was used to estimate a statistically significant elasticity of demand for Green Power with respect to price of -0.96 with a 95% confidence interval of {+-}68%. The wide variation in market penetration between jurisdictions and between countries for Green Power, and the low awareness of Green Power found by surveys indicate that Green Power sales could be increased by appropriate marketing and government policies. The most cost effective means to increase sales was found to be advertising campaigns although only one Australian example was found, in the state of Victoria in 2005. It was also found that full tax deductibility of the Green Power premium to residential customers, exemption from the Goods and Services Tax and a tax rebate for Green Power are all probably less cost effective for promoting sales than direct government purchase of Green Power, in terms of cost per unit of increased sales. (author)

Turning the wind into hydrogen: The long-run impact on electricity prices and generating capacity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Green, Richard; Hu, Helen; Vasilakos, Nicholas

2011-01-01

Hydrogen production via electrolysis has been proposed as a way of absorbing the fluctuating electricity generated by wind power, potentially allowing the use of cheap electricity at times when it would otherwise be in surplus. We show that large-scale adoption of electrolysers would change the shape of the load-duration curve for electricity, affecting the optimal capacity mix. Nuclear power stations will replace gas-fired power stations, as they are able to run for longer periods of time. Changes in the electricity capacity mix will be much greater than changes to the pattern of prices. The long-run supply price of hydrogen will thus tend to be insensitive to the amount produced. - Research Highlights: → Hydrogen production from electrolysis may offset intermittent wind generation. → The generation capacity mix will change in response to changed demand patterns. → The long-run equilibrium supply curve for hydrogen will be quite flat. → The production cost will be very sensitive to fuel prices paid by generators.

Potential impacts of electricity price changes on price formation in the economy: a social accounting matrix price modeling analysis for Turkey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akkemik, K. Ali

2011-01-01

Recent reforms in the Turkish electricity sector since 2001 aim to introduce a tariff system that reflects costs. This is expected to affect the production and consumer prices of electricity. The changes in electricity prices are then reflected in production costs in other segments of the economy. Subsequently, producer and consumer prices will be affected. The potential impact of the changes in electricity prices that the ongoing electricity reforms in Turkey will bring about may have important implications on the price formation in economic activities and the cost of living for households. This paper evaluates the potential impacts of changes in electricity prices from a social accounting matrix (SAM) price modeling perspective. It is found that based on the estimated price multipliers that prices in the energy-producing sectors, mining, and iron and steel manufacturing sectors would be affected more severely than the remaining sectors of the economy. Consumer prices are affected slightly less than producer prices. - Research Highlights: → The impact of electricity generation costs on prices in other sectors is modeled. → A micro-SAM emphasizing electricity supply is constructed using 2002 I-O tables. → Energy, mining, and steel sectors are more responsive to electricity costs. → Living costs are less responsive to electricity cost changes than producer prices.

Electricity spot price dynamics: Beyond financial models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guthrie, Graeme; Videbeck, Steen

2007-01-01

We reveal properties of electricity spot prices that cannot be captured by the statistical models, commonly used to model financial asset prices, that are increasingly used to model electricity prices. Using more than eight years of half-hourly spot price data from the New Zealand Electricity Market, we find that the half-hourly trading periods fall naturally into five groups corresponding to the overnight off-peak, the morning peak, daytime off-peak, evening peak, and evening off-peak. The prices in different trading periods within each group are highly correlated with each other, yet the correlations between prices in different groups are lower. Models, adopted from the modeling of security prices, that are currently applied to electricity spot prices are incapable of capturing this behavior. We use a periodic autoregression to model prices instead, showing that shocks in the peak periods are larger and less persistent than those in off-peak periods, and that they often reappear in the following peak period. In contrast, shocks in the off-peak periods are smaller, more persistent, and die out (perhaps temporarily) during the peak periods. Current approaches to modeling spot prices cannot capture this behavior either. (author)

Research on Double Price Regulations and Peak Shaving Reserve Mechanism in Coal-Electricity Supply Chain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hongjun Peng

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The game models were used to study the mechanism of coal-electricity price conflict under conditions of double price regulations of coal and electricity. Based on this, the peak shaving reserve mechanism was designed to probe into the countermeasures against the coal-electricity price conflicts. The study revealed that in the boom seasons of coal demand, the initiatives of the coal enterprises to supply thermal coal and the electricity enterprises to order thermal coal are reduced under conditions of double price regulations. However, under the circumstances of coal price marketization, in the boom seasons of coal demand the thermal coal price may go up obviously, the initiatives of the coal enterprises to supply thermal coal are increased, and meanwhile the initiatives of the power enterprises to order thermal coal are decreased dramatically. The transportation capacity constraint of coal supply leads to the evident decrease of the initiatives of coal enterprises for the thermal coal supply. The mechanism of peak shaving reserve of thermal coal may not only reduce the price of coal market but also increase the enthusiasm of the power enterprises to order more thermal coal and the initiatives of the coal enterprises to supply more thermal coal.

Spatial dependencies of wind power and interrelations with spot price dynamics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Elberg, Christina; Hagspiel, Simeon

2013-06-15

Wind power has seen a strong growth over the last decade. Due to its high intermittency, spot prices have become more volatile and exhibit correlated behavior with wind power fed into the system. In this paper, we develop a stochastic simulation model that incorporates the spatial dependencies of wind power and its interrelations with spot prices: We employ a structural supply and demand based model for the electricity spot price that takes into account stochastic production quantities of wind power. Spatial dependencies are modeled with the help of copulas, thus linking the single turbine wind power to the aggregated wind power in a market. The model is applied to the German electricity market where wind power already today makes up a significant share of total power production. Revenue distributions and the market value of different wind power plants are analyzed. We find that the specific location of the considered wind turbine, i.e. its spatial dependency with respect to the aggregated wind power in the system, is of high relevance for its market value. Many of the analyzed locations show an upper tail dependence that adversely impacts the market value. This effect becomes more important for increasing levels of wind power penetration.

Spatial dependencies of wind power and interrelations with spot price dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elberg, Christina; Hagspiel, Simeon

2013-01-01

Wind power has seen a strong growth over the last decade. Due to its high intermittency, spot prices have become more volatile and exhibit correlated behavior with wind power fed into the system. In this paper, we develop a stochastic simulation model that incorporates the spatial dependencies of wind power and its interrelations with spot prices: We employ a structural supply and demand based model for the electricity spot price that takes into account stochastic production quantities of wind power. Spatial dependencies are modeled with the help of copulas, thus linking the single turbine wind power to the aggregated wind power in a market. The model is applied to the German electricity market where wind power already today makes up a significant share of total power production. Revenue distributions and the market value of different wind power plants are analyzed. We find that the specific location of the considered wind turbine, i.e. its spatial dependency with respect to the aggregated wind power in the system, is of high relevance for its market value. Many of the analyzed locations show an upper tail dependence that adversely impacts the market value. This effect becomes more important for increasing levels of wind power penetration.

Wind power and a liberalised North European electricity exchange

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nielsen, L H; Morthorst, P E; Skytte, K [and others

1999-03-01

Conditions for wind power on a liberalised North European electrical power market are addressed in the paper. Results are presented from a recently completed study carried out by Risoe National Laboratory in collaboration with the Danish electric utilities Eltra, Elsam and Elkraft. A main result from the study is, that the market will be able to provide the necessary power regulation, that will be required year 2005 as consequence of the expected wind power capacity extension, according to the Danish energy plan, Energy21. The averege sales price on the market for the wind-generated electricity is less than the average spot market price, due to provision of power regulation to balance the unpredictability of the wind power. This reduction in the market value of wind power has been calculated to 10-20 DKK/MWh of 1.3-2.7 EUR/MWh. (au)

Energy, electricity and nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reuss, P.; Naudet, G.

2008-01-01

After an introduction recalling what energy is, the first part of this book presents the present day energy production and consumption and details more particularly the electricity 'vector' which is an almost perfect form of energy despite the fact that it is not a primary energy source: it must be generated from another energy source and no large scale storage of this energy is possible. The second part of the book is devoted to nuclear energy principles and to the related technologies. Content: 1 - What does energy mean?: the occurrence of the energy concept, the classical notion of energy, energy notion in modern physics, energy transformations, energy conservation, irreversibility of energy transformations, data and units used in the energy domain; 2 - energy production and consumption: energy systems, energy counting, reserves and potentialities of energy resources, production of primary energies, transport and storage of primary energies, energy consumption, energy saving, energy markets and prices, energy indicators; 3 - electric power: specificity of electricity and the electric system, power networks, power generation, electricity storage, power consumption and demand, power generation economics, electricity prices and market; 4 - physical principles of nuclear energy: nuclei structure and binding energy, radioactivity and nuclear reactions, nuclear reactions used in energy generation, basics of fission reactors physics; 5 - nuclear techniques: historical overview, main reactor types used today, perspectives; 6 - fuel cycle: general considerations, uranium mining, conversion, enrichment, fuel fabrication, back-end of the cycle, plutonium recycle in water cooled reactors; 7 - health and environmental aspects of nuclear energy: effects on ionizing radiations, basics of radiation protection, environmental impacts of nuclear energy, the nuclear wastes problem, specific risks; 8 - conclusion; 9 - appendixes (units, physics constants etc..)

Electricity distribution. Price control, reliability and customer services: response to OFFER

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-02-01

This document presents the views of the National Consumer Council to a recent consultation paper from OFFER, the body responsible for regulation of the United Kingdom electric power industry. The financial performance of the Regional Electricity Companies (RECs) is reviewed by examining how it relates to the prices paid by domestic consumers. A critical analysis is presented of OFFER's notion of the revision of the existing price control mechanism for the distribution businesses within the RECs. Standards of performance, debt and consumer disconnection are also examined. (UK)

Electricity prices and generator behaviour in gross pool electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Mahoney, Amy; Denny, Eleanor

2013-01-01

Electricity market liberalisation has become common practice internationally. The justification for this process has been to enhance competition in a market traditionally characterised by statutory monopolies in an attempt to reduce costs to end-users. This paper endeavours to see whether a pool market achieves this goal of increasing competition and reducing electricity prices. Here the electricity market is set up as a sealed bid second price auction. Theory predicts that such markets should result with firms bidding their marginal cost, thereby resulting in an efficient outcome and lower costs to consumers. The Irish electricity system with a gross pool market experiences among the highest electricity prices in Europe. Thus, we analyse the Irish pool system econometrically in order to test if the high electricity prices seen there are due to participants bidding outside of market rules or out of line with theory. Overall we do not find any evidence that the interaction between generator and the pool in the Irish electricity market is not efficient. Thus, the pool element of the market structure does not explain the high electricity prices experienced in Ireland. - Highlights: • We consider whether a gross pool achieves competitive behaviour. • We analyse the Irish pool system econometrically. • Results indicate the Irish pool system appears to work efficiently. • Generators appear to be bidding appropriately

Empirical assessment of market power in the Alberta wholesale electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qu, F.

2007-01-01

In the 1990s, many countries began to unbundle regulated electricity monopolies into generation, transmission, distribution and retail companies. Transmission and distribution services remained regulated, but generation and retail services were open for competition. Wholesale and retail electricity markets were created. This paper presented a newly developed competitiveness index specifically for the Alberta market through a simple and standard economic approach. The Alberta Electric Utilities Act came into effect in January 1996. This paper described how the Alberta wholesale electricity market works and demonstrated how to model market power in the electricity market. In this study, power generating companies in Alberta were divided into 2 groups. The first group contained the 5 largest firms called strategic firms, while the other group contained the small generating companies called non-strategic firms or the competitive fringe. In the sample years 2003 and 2004, strategic firms withheld capacity when price was above marginal cost and behaved within the range of competitive pricing. They were more likely to price competitively than to use unilateral market power prices. In addition, firms had higher price-cost margins during the off-peak season. This paper explained in detail the reason for this unusual off-peak pattern. The index to measure a firm's strategic behaviour in the Alberta electricity market was developed according to price-cost margin data where firm-behaviour effect was distinguished from the demand-elasticity effect. It was concluded that policy-makers and regulations should consider the magnitude and source of market power when designing market structure, rules and trading practices. 9 refs., 5 tabs., 2 figs

Electricity market price volatility: The case of Ontario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zareipour, Hamidreza; Bhattacharya, Kankar; Canizares, Claudio A.

2007-01-01

Price volatility analysis has been reported in the literature for most competitive electricity markets around the world. However, no studies have been published yet that quantify price volatility in the Ontario electricity market, which is the focus of the present paper. In this paper, a comparative volatility analysis is conducted for the Ontario market and its neighboring electricity markets. Volatility indices are developed based on historical volatility and price velocity concepts, previously applied to other electricity market prices, and employed in the present work. The analysis is carried out in two scenarios: in the first scenario, the volatility indices are determined for the entire price time series. In the second scenario, the price time series are broken up into 24 time series for each of the 24 h and volatility indices are calculated for each specific hour separately. The volatility indices are also applied to the locational marginal prices of several pricing points in the New England, New York, and PJM electricity markets. The outcomes reveal that price volatility is significantly higher in Ontario than the three studied neighboring electricity markets. Furthermore, comparison of the results of this study with similar findings previously published for 15 other electricity markets demonstrates that the Ontario electricity market is one of the most volatile electricity markets world-wide. This high volatility is argued to be associated with the fact that Ontario is a single-settlement, real-time market

Hydrogen from nuclear plus wind using real-time electricity prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, A.I.; Duffey, R.B.; Fairlie, M.; Anders, P.

2004-01-01

During the early years of hydrogen's use as a vehicle fuel, penetration of the market will be small. This favours distributed production by electrolysis, which avoids the scale-dependent costs of distribution from centralized plants. For electrolysis actually to be the preferred option, capital equipment for electrolysis must be reasonably cheap but the dominant cost component is the electricity price. By about 2006, advanced designs of nuclear reactors should be available to produce electricity at around 30 US$/MW.h at the plant gate. The best approach to producing low-cost electrolytic hydrogen is shown to be use of such reactors to supply electricity to the grid at times of peak price and demand and to make hydrogen at other times In this paper, this model has been used to calculate the production costs for electrolytic hydrogen at the location where the electricity is generated, using the actual prices of electricity paid by the Alberta Power Pool in 2002 and 2003 and by the Ontario Grid for 2003. The analysis shows clearly that by optimizing the co-production of hydrogen and electricity (referred to as the H 2 /e process) the cost for hydrogen produced can comfortably meet the US Department of Energy's target of 2000 US$/tonne. Because of its lower availability factor, wind-produced electricity cannot meet this cost target. However, if wind power availability can reach 35%, an intermittent supplementary current of wind-generated electricity may economically be fed to an electrolytic plant primarily supplied by nuclear power. Additional current raises the voltage for electrolysis but there would be only small additional capital costs. The two non-CO 2 -emitting sources, nuclear and wind could become complementary, providing an affordable way of storing wind-generated electricity when the supply exceeds demand in electricity markets The analyses presented in this paper looks at the case of bulk production of H 2 /e in a 'wholesale' energy market and does not

Comprehensive evaluation of power grid enterprises' credit rating under the reform of transmission and distribution price

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yongli; Wang, Gang; Zuo, Yi; Fan, Lisha; Wei, Jiaxiang

2017-03-01

On March 15, 2015, the central office issued the "Opinions on Further Deepening the Reform of Electric Power System" (in the 2015 No. 9). This policy marks the central government officially opened a new round of electricity reform. As a programmatic document under the new situation to comprehensively promote the reform of the power system, No. 9 document will be approved as a separate transmission and distribution of electricity prices, which is the first task of promoting the reform of the power system. Grid tariff reform is not only the transmission and distribution price of a separate approval, more of the grid company input-output relationship and many other aspects of deep-level adjustments. Under the background of the reform of the transmission and distribution price, the main factors affecting the input-output relationship, such as the main business, electricity pricing, and investment approval, financial accounting and so on, have changed significantly. The paper designed the comprehensive evaluation index system of power grid enterprises' credit rating under the reform of transmission and distribution price to reduce the impact of the reform on the company's international rating results and the ability to raise funds.

Nuclear power's effects on electric rate making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, D.S.; Lancaster, A.A.

1978-01-01

Government and the electric utility industry are re-evaluating nuclear power's contribution to the total U.S. energy supplies. This article addresses how the recently increased nuclear plant construction and operation costs are translated into the prices that consumers pay for electricity. The electric rates that consumers pay must reflect the costs of producing electricity, as well as the costs of transmission, distribution, metering, and billing. The use of nuclear power for electric production is anticipated to grow rapidly so as to meet a larger portion of our country's electricity needs through the end of the century; so nuclear power costs are expected to be an even larger portion of the total electricity price. There are certain rate-making issues that are actively being discussed in public forums and before state and Federal regulatory bodies. These issues are not unique to nuclear power, but take on added significance when nuclear power is used by utilities to produce electricity because of the technology required and because of the type, timing, and magnitude of the costs involved. These are: (1) inclusion of construction work in progress in the rate base; (2) fuel adjustment clauses and treatment of nuclear fuel cycle costs; (3) treatment of certain taxes under the rate-making method called normalization or deferral accounting (sometimes referred to as ''phantom taxes''); and (4) rate treatment for particular nuclear expense items reflecting costs of delays, plant cancellations, and operational slowdowns

Electric Power Regulation in Mexico

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Landa, J V [Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City (Mexico)

1994-12-31

The history of the electrical power sector in Mexico, the prominent role that government plays in the generation, transformation, distribution and supply of electrical power, and the implications of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) for this sector were summarized. The slow pace of the Mexican electricity sector in achieving cost efficiency through pricing policy was criticized, and the issue of regulation versus deregulation of the electricity sector was examined in the context of NAFTA, emphasizing the contradiction between the idea of international trade and a highly regulated industry. Revisions of the original constitutional article to exclude electrical power generation from governmental control and to allow market mechanisms and competition to lower costs and increase efficiency was recommended.It was considered a pre-condition to a stable balance between competition and energy efficient environmentally friendly practices.

Electricity price forecasting through transfer function models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nogales, F.J.; Conejo, A.J.

2006-01-01

Forecasting electricity prices in present day competitive electricity markets is a must for both producers and consumers because both need price estimates to develop their respective market bidding strategies. This paper proposes a transfer function model to predict electricity prices based on both past electricity prices and demands, and discuss the rationale to build it. The importance of electricity demand information is assessed. Appropriate metrics to appraise prediction quality are identified and used. Realistic and extensive simulations based on data from the PJM Interconnection for year 2003 are conducted. The proposed model is compared with naive and other techniques. Journal of the Operational Research Society (2006) 57, 350-356.doi:10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601995; published online 18 May 2005. (author)

Analysing the impact of renewable electricity support schemes on power prices: The case of wind electricity in Spain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saenz de Miera, Gonzalo; Rio Gonzalez, Pablo del; Vizcaino, Ignacio

2008-01-01

It is sometimes argued that renewables are 'expensive'. However, although it is generally true that the private costs of renewable electricity generation are certainly above those of conventional electricity, that statement fails to consider the social benefits provided by electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E), including environmental and socioeconomic ones. This paper empirically analyses an additional albeit usually neglected benefit: the reduction in the wholesale price of electricity as a result of more RES-E generation being fed into the grid. The case of wind generation in Spain shows that this reduction is greater than the increase in the costs for the consumers arising from the RES-E support scheme (the feed-in tariffs), which are charged to the final consumer. Therefore, a net reduction in the retail electricity price results, which is positive from a consumer point of view. This provides an additional argument for RES-E support and contradicts one of the usual arguments against RES-E deployment: the excessive burden on the consumer

Spot Markets Indices as Benchmarks of Formation of Future Price Trends in the Power Exchanges of Eastern Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Polikevych Nataliya I.

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article is concerned with a theoretical generalization of the use of indices for electric power at the European spot exchanges and elaborating proposals on establishment of a similar spot index for the Ukrainian power exchange. 16 indices that are published daily by the power exchanges BSP Regional Energy Exchange, Power Exchange Central Europe, Polish Power Exchange and Opcom have been analyzed. It has been indicated that these indices are used for electricity price forecasting and monitoring the situation in the power market. The article examines the way spot indices are calculated by power exchanges, based on the value of the arithmetic average of market prices «day ahead». Imperfection of such way of calculation for price index values has been substantiated. The key characteristics of the future price index for Ukrainian spot market as benchmarks within the introduction of futures contracts for electricity have been identified.

Blending of electricity pricing with time flavour - an analysis of net system benefit to an electric utility in India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhardwaj, J.L.

1992-01-01

Demand-side Management is a powerful strategy for modifying electric energy consumption patterns for the mutual benefit of consumers, the supplier and the economy as a whole Time-of-use pricing of electricity suggest a policy where the price is time-differentiated so as to reduce contribution to the system-peak which determines the capacity and investments of a power-system. This paper describes a case-study of net system benefit to an electric utility in India by offering time-of-use tariff to high voltage (HV) industrial consumers. The study shows that there is a potential of shifting about 19% H.V. Industrial loads from peak to off-peak hours thereby benefitting both, the consumers and the utility. 1 fig., 2 tabs

Electric cars as mobile power storage systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herzog, B.

2010-01-01

This article discusses the use of electric cars as a means of optimising the use of renewable energy sources. Charging the cars' batteries during periods when cheap electricity prices prevail and then using excess capacity to supply the mains with electricity during periods of peak demand is discussed. The possible use of wind for power generation is discussed and a system proposed by a leading supplier of electrical apparatus and systems is examined. Two examples of electric cars and associated power chains are looked at and tests in everyday practice are described

Cost-reflective electricity pricing: Consumer preferences and perceptions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hall, Nina L.; Jeanneret, Talia D.; Rai, Alan

2016-01-01

In Australia, residential electricity peak demand has risen steeply in recent decades, leading to higher prices as new infrastructure was needed to satisfy demand. One way of limiting further infrastructure-induced retail price rises is via ‘cost-reflective’ electricity network pricing that incentivises users to shift their demand to non-peak periods. Empowering consumers with knowledge of their energy usage is critical to maximise the potential benefits of cost-reflective pricing. This research consulted residential electricity consumers in three Australian states on their perceptions and acceptance of two cost-reflective pricing scenarios (Time-of-Use and Peak Capacity pricing) and associated technologies to support such pricing (smart meters, in-home displays and direct load control devices). An energy economist presented information to focus groups on the merits and limitations of each scenario, and participants’ views were captured. Almost half of the 53 participants were agreeable to Time-of-Use pricing, but did not have a clear preference for Peak Capacity pricing, where the price was based on the daily maximum demand. Participants recommended further information to both understand and justify the potential benefits, and for technologies to be introduced to enhance the pricing options. The results have implications for utilities and providers who seek to reduce peak demand. - Highlights: •Electricity price rises can be limited by ‘cost-reflective’ pricing. •We consulted residential electricity consumers on Time-of-Use and Peak Capacity pricing. •Understanding of peak electricity demand must increase to enable demand shift. •Interactive website could enable consumers to evaluate pricing options. •Smart meter adoption may increase if voluntary and includes an in-home display.

Prices vs. quantities. Incentives for renewable power generation. Numerical analysis for the European power market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nagl, Stephan

2013-02-15

In recent years, many countries have implemented policies to incentivize renewable power generation. This paper outlines the effects of weather uncertainty on investment and operation decisions of electricity producers under a feed-in tariff and renewable quota obligation. Furthermore, this paper tries to quantify the sectoral welfare and investments risks under the different policies. For this purpose, a spatial stochastic equilibrium model is introduced for the European electricity market. The numerical analysis suggests that including the electricity market price in renewable policies (wholesale price + x) reduces the loss of sectoral welfare due to a renewable policy by 11-20 %. Moreover, investors face an only slightly higher risk than under fixed price compensations. However, electricity producers face a substantially larger investment risk when introducing a renewable quota obligation without the option of banking and borrowing of green certificates. Given the scenario results, an integration of the hourly market price in renewable support mechanisms is mandatory to keep the financial burden to electricity consumers at a minimum. Additionally, following the discussion of a European renewable quota after 2020, the analysis indicates the importance of an appropriate banking and borrowing mechanism in light of stochastic wind and solar generation.

Basic Assumptions of the New Price System and Supplements to the Tariff System for Electricity Sale

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klepo, M.

1995-01-01

The article outlines some basic assumptions of the new price system and major elements of the latest proposition for the changes and supplements to the Tariff system for Electricity Sale in the Republic of Croatia, including the analysis of those elements which brought about the present unfavourable and non-productive relations within the electric power system. The paper proposes measures and actions which should by means of a price system and tariff policy improve the present unfavourable relations and their consequences and achieve a desirable consumption structure and characteristics, resulting in rational management and effective power supply-economy relationships within the electric power system as a subsystem of the power supply sector. (author). 2 refs., 3 figs., 4 tabs

Influence of TCSC on congestion and spot price in electricity market with bilateral contract

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Acharya, Naresh; Mithulananthan, Nadarajah

2007-01-01

This paper presents a quantitative analysis of the effect of TCSC on congestion and spot price in deregulated electricity markets. The paper could also be considered as a comprehensive tutorial on the influence of TCSC in electricity market. A voluntary pool market, where the market participants can trade electricity either via a pool or through bilateral contracts is considered. The electricity market is modeled in an optimal power flow framework with the objective of maximizing the social welfare. In such formulation, the Lagrange operators associated with the equality constraints associated with real power balance give the spot prices of energy at each bus of the system. Studies are carried out with and without TCSC at peak and low loading conditions to capture the influence and to see the effectiveness of TCSC at different loading conditions. The paper further explores the effect of TCSC compensation level on the spot prices and the congestion under varying pool and bilateral loading conditions. A 5-bus test system is used for numerical studies and to showcase the influence of TCSC in an electricity market environment. (author)

Optimal pricing of transmission and distribution services in electricity supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farmer, E.D.; Cory, B.J.; Perera, B.L.P.P.

1995-01-01

A new strategy for the separate pricing of transmission and distribution services in electricity supply is formulated and evaluated. The proposed methodology is a multivariate transmission generalisation of the method of peak load pricing previously applied to the optimal time-of-use pricing of generation on a power system with diverse generation technologies and with elastic demand. The method allocates both capacity and operational costs on a time-of-use basis, in an optimal manner, that avoids cross-subsidisation both between differing supply system participants and differing times of usage. The method is shown to promote the optimal development of the transmission, distribution or interconnecting systems, rewarding justified investments in transmission capacity and discouraging overinvestment. It also leads to appropriate returns on invested capital without significant 'revenue reconciliation'. This contrasts with SRMC pricing as is shown by a comparative revenue evaluation. It is concluded that the method has wide potential application in electricity supply. (author)

Germany's nuclear power plant closures and the integration of electricity markets in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Menezes, Lilian M. de; Houllier, Melanie A.

2015-01-01

This paper examines the potential implications of national policies that lead to a sudden increase of wind power in the electricity mix for interconnected European electricity markets. More specifically, it examines market integration before and after the closures of eight nuclear power plants that occurred within a period of a few months in Germany during 2011. The short- and- long run interrelationships of daily electricity spot prices, from November 2009 to October 2012, in: APX-ENDEX, BELPEX, EPEX-DE, EPEX-FR, NORDPOOL, OMEL and SWISSIX; and wind power in the German system are analysed. Two MGARCH (Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) models with dynamic correlations are used to assess spot market behaviour in the short run, and a fractional cointegration analysis is conducted to investigate changes in the long-run behaviour of electricity spot prices. Results show: positive time-varying correlations between spot prices in markets with substantial shared interconnector capacity; a negative association between wind power penetration in Germany and electricity spot prices in the German and neighbouring markets; and, for most markets, a decreasing speed in mean reversion. -- Highlights: •Associations between spot prices and wind power are time-varying. •Greater spot price and volatility associations across markets are observed. •In the long run, the German market is less integrated with neighbouring markets. •Policies on a local electricity mix can affect spot prices in connected markets

A vector autoregressive model for electricity prices subject to long memory and regime switching

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haldrup, Niels; Nielsen, Frank S.; Nielsen, Morten Oerregaard

2010-01-01

A regime dependent VAR model is suggested that allows long memory (fractional integration) in each of the observed regime states as well as the possibility of fractional cointegration. The model is motivated by the dynamics of electricity prices where the transmission of power is subject to occasional congestion periods. For a system of bilateral prices non-congestion means that electricity prices are identical whereas congestion makes prices depart. Hence, the joint price dynamics implies switching between a univariate price process under non-congestion and a bivariate price process under congestion. At the same time, it is an empirical regularity that electricity prices tend to show a high degree of long memory, and thus that prices may be fractionally cointegrated. Analysis of Nord Pool data shows that even though the prices are identical under non-congestion, the prices are not, in general, fractionally cointegrated in the congestion state. Hence, in most cases price convergence is a property following from regime switching rather than a conventional error correction mechanism. Finally, the suggested model is shown to deliver forecasts that are more precise compared to competing models. (author)

Electric power systems advanced forecasting techniques and optimal generation scheduling

CERN Document Server

Catalão, João P S

2012-01-01

Overview of Electric Power Generation SystemsCláudio MonteiroUncertainty and Risk in Generation SchedulingRabih A. JabrShort-Term Load ForecastingAlexandre P. Alves da Silva and Vitor H. FerreiraShort-Term Electricity Price ForecastingNima AmjadyShort-Term Wind Power ForecastingGregor Giebel and Michael DenhardPrice-Based Scheduling for GencosGovinda B. Shrestha and Songbo QiaoOptimal Self-Schedule of a Hydro Producer under UncertaintyF. Javier Díaz and Javie

Description of the electric power and energy trade in Finland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Komulainen, K.

1992-01-01

The Finnish State has traditionally controlled the import of electricity, larger related investments and pricing. Lately, a market orientated economic policy has influenced energy policy and the amount of state control has gradually decreased. Decisions have yet to be made with regard to the fifth nuclear power reactor. The paper deals briefly with the subjects of the electric power, natural gas and oil markets. Finland's transmission network has connections to the former Russia and the Baltic countries. According to agreements within the European Community, Finland must now make changes in its electric power supply structure. Competition will be encouraged and monopolies discouraged. Pricing shall be transparent, and power plants must present written documentation for their management system, price regulations etc. A law must be passed to legitimate trade across the country's borders. Emphasis will be laid on energy conservation and energy research and consultant services. It is claimed that Finland's level of technology in this area lives up to international standards. (AB)

Electric power in Canada, 1990

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-01-01

This report reviews the structure of the electric power industry in Canada, describes the regulatory structures that are in place, and puts the Canadian electricity industry into an international context. It presents statistics on electricity generation and consumption, imports and exports, transmission, costs and pricing, and financing. It forecasts anticipated energy demands, generating capacity and actual generation, exports, fuel requirements, and expenditures. The impacts of demand-side management and non-utility generation are discussed. (82 tabs., 23 figs.)

Electric power in Canada, 1989

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-01-01

This report reviews the structure of the electric power industry in Canada, describes the regulatory structures that are in place, and puts the Canadian electricity industry into an international context. It presents statistics on electricity generation and consumption, imports and exports, transmission, costs and pricing, and financing. It forecasts anticipated energy demands, generating capacity and actual generation, exports, fuel requirements, and expenditures. The impacts of demand-side management and non-utility generation are discussed. (78 tabs., 27 figs.)

Understanding the determinants of electricity prices and the impact of the German Nuclear Moratorium in 2011

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thoenes, Stefan

2011-01-01

This paper shows how the effect of fuel prices varies with the level of electricity demand. It analyzes the relationship between daily prices of electricity, natural gas and carbon emission allowances with a vector error correction model and a semiparametric varying smooth coefficient model. The results indicate that the electricity price adapts to fuel price changes in a long-term cointegration relationship. Different electricity generation technologies have distinct fuel price dependencies, which allows estimating the structure of the power plant portfolio by exploiting market prices. The semiparametric model indicates a technology switch from coal to gas at roughly 85% of maximum demand. It is used to analyze the market impact of the nuclear moratorium by the German Government in March 2011. Futures prices show that the market efficiently accounts for the suspended capacity and expects that several nuclear plants will not be switched on after the moratorium.

Real-time electricity pricing in a deregulated environment using artificial intelligence

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dondo, M.G.

1998-12-31

The challenge of implementing real-time pricing of electricity was discussed. Several electric utilities want to incorporate real-time pricing into their rate policies. Conventional programming methods are not fast enough to process and distribute information in real time. Therefore, a new method that would match the current advances in communication speeds is needed. Also, conventional programming methods do not incorporate the uncertainties that are inherent in the lives of humans. Therefore, it is necessary to incorporate this fuzziness into the model. This study showed that the elements of speed and uncertainties can be readily incorporated into the determination of spot-pricing based electricity rates. A unique computational intelligence model was designed which consists of a feedforward neural network based on back-propagation training and a fuzzy logic model. The work has been demonstrated on the IEEE test systems and the Nova Scotia Power Corporation`s system.

Electric power bidding model for practical utility system

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Prabavathi

2018-03-01

Full Text Available A competitive open market environment has been created due to the restructuring in the electricity market. In the new competitive market, mostly a centrally operated pool with a power exchange has been introduced to meet the offers from the competing suppliers with the bids of the customers. In such an open access environment, the formation of bidding strategy is one of the most challenging and important tasks for electricity participants to maximize their profit. To build bidding strategies for power suppliers and consumers in the restructured electricity market, a new mathematical framework is proposed in this paper. It is assumed that each participant submits several blocks of real power quantities along with their bidding prices. The effectiveness of the proposed method is tested on Indian Utility-62 bus system and IEEE-118 bus system. Keywords: Bidding strategy, Day ahead electricity market, Market clearing price, Market clearing volume, Block bid, Intermediate value theorem

Monthly bulletin of electric power market - November 1988

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1988-01-01

This bulletin deals with the brazilian electric power consumption in November 1988, containing data about the total consumption, the growth rates, the special tariffs and monthly evolution in each brazilian region. The economic indexes of industrial production, the market and the prices of electric power and petroleum products are also presented. (C.G.C.)

Monthly bulletin of electric power market - July 1988

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1988-01-01

This bulletin deals with the brazilian electric power consumption in July 1988, containing data about the total consumption, the growth rates, the special tariffs and monthly evolution in each brazilian region. The economic indexes of industrial production, the market and the prices of electric power and petroleum products are also presented. (C.G.C.)

Monthly bulletin of electric power market - September 1988

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1988-01-01

This bulletin deals with the brazilian electric power consumption in September 1988, containing data about the total consumption, the growth rates, the special tariffs and monthly evolution in each brazilian region. The economic indexes of industrial production, the market and the prices of electric power and petroleum products are also presented. (C.G.C.)

Annual Report 1999. Electric power in Sweden

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-07-01

Power Association is of the opinion that the increase in production taxes on nuclear power is completely misdirected. Sweden is the only EU country to have production taxes on electricity. Uncertainty and the lack of stability in the present taxation system will entail considerable difficulties both for electricity-intensive industry and for the power companies vis-a-vis long-term investment in Sweden. In 1999, overall consumption in the country fell by 0.3 TWh to 142.9 TWh, compared with last year. The decrease is explained by the fact that the autumn was very warm. Inflow into the major rivers was somewhat higher than normal enabling 70.4 TWh to be generated by the hydropower plants. This is 6 TWh more than during a normal year. Nuclear power accounted for 70.2 TWh, equal to the previous year. Additionally, combined heat and power and condensing plants accounted for 9.5 TWh, almost half of which using biofuels. Wind power continues to increase. At year-end, there were about 480 wind power plants, and the annual production was 0.4 TWh. Overall electricity production in the country was 150.5 TWh, a decrease of 3.4 TWh, or just under three percent. Exports amounted to 16.1 TWh and imports to 8.5 TWh. The average price for the year on the Nordic power exchange's spot market (Sector Sweden) was SEK 0.119 per kWh. The low price is explained by the mild weather and a plentiful supply of water in the Nordic reservoirs. On 1 November, the electricity market was changed in such a way that small consumers, with a fuse rating of up to 200 amps, were also able to take part. Parliament's decision to remove the requirement for continually registering hourly meters was of crucial importance. With this measure, the electricity market was also opened up to household customers. Hourly metering was replaced by profile settlement. Customers were offered fixed prices that could be considerably lower than previously. Flexible prices were on offer, e.g. linked to the power exchange's spot

Annual Report 1999. Electric power in Sweden

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2000-07-15

. The Swedish Power Association is of the opinion that the increase in production taxes on nuclear power is completely misdirected. Sweden is the only EU country to have production taxes on electricity. Uncertainty and the lack of stability in the present taxation system will entail considerable difficulties both for electricity-intensive industry and for the power companies vis-a-vis long-term investment in Sweden. In 1999, overall consumption in the country fell by 0.3 TWh to 142.9 TWh, compared with last year. The decrease is explained by the fact that the autumn was very warm. Inflow into the major rivers was somewhat higher than normal enabling 70.4 TWh to be generated by the hydropower plants. This is 6 TWh more than during a normal year. Nuclear power accounted for 70.2 TWh, equal to the previous year. Additionally, combined heat and power and condensing plants accounted for 9.5 TWh, almost half of which using biofuels. Wind power continues to increase. At year-end, there were about 480 wind power plants, and the annual production was 0.4 TWh. Overall electricity production in the country was 150.5 TWh, a decrease of 3.4 TWh, or just under three percent. Exports amounted to 16.1 TWh and imports to 8.5 TWh. The average price for the year on the Nordic power exchange's spot market (Sector Sweden) was SEK 0.119 per kWh. The low price is explained by the mild weather and a plentiful supply of water in the Nordic reservoirs. On 1 November, the electricity market was changed in such a way that small consumers, with a fuse rating of up to 200 amps, were also able to take part. Parliament's decision to remove the requirement for continually registering hourly meters was of crucial importance. With this measure, the electricity market was also opened up to household customers. Hourly metering was replaced by profile settlement. Customers were offered fixed prices that could be considerably lower than previously. Flexible prices were on offer, e.g. linked to the