Generalized Born Models of Macromolecular Solvation Effects
Bashford, Donald; Case, David A.
2000-10-01
It would often be useful in computer simulations to use a simple description of solvation effects, instead of explicitly representing the individual solvent molecules. Continuum dielectric models often work well in describing the thermodynamic aspects of aqueous solvation, and approximations to such models that avoid the need to solve the Poisson equation are attractive because of their computational efficiency. Here we give an overview of one such approximation, the generalized Born model, which is simple and fast enough to be used for molecular dynamics simulations of proteins and nucleic acids. We discuss its strengths and weaknesses, both for its fidelity to the underlying continuum model and for its ability to replace explicit consideration of solvent molecules in macromolecular simulations. We focus particularly on versions of the generalized Born model that have a pair-wise analytical form, and therefore fit most naturally into conventional molecular mechanics calculations.
Seed-borne pathogens and electrical conductivity of soybean seeds
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Adriana Luiza Wain-Tassi
2012-02-01
Full Text Available Adequate procedures to evaluate seed vigor are important. Regarding the electrical conductivity test (EC, the interference in the test results caused by seed-borne pathogens has not been clarified. This research was carried out to study the influence of Phomopsis sojae (Leh. and Colletotrichum dematium (Pers. ex Fr. Grove var. truncata (Schw. Arx. fungi on EC results. Soybean seeds (Glycine max L. were inoculated with those fungi using potato, agar and dextrose (PDA medium with manitol (-1.0 MPa and incubated for 20 h at 25 °C. The colony diameter, index of mycelial growth, seed water content, occurrence of seed-borne pathogens, physiological potential of the seeds, measured by germination and vigor tests (seed germination index, cold test, accelerated aging and electrical conductivity, and seedling field emergence were determined. The contents of K+, Ca2+, and Mg2+ in the seed and in the soaking solution were also determined. A complete 2 × 4 factorial design with two seed sizes (5.5 and 6.5 mm and four treatments (control, seeds incubated without fungi, seeds incubated with Phomopsis and seeds incubated with Colletotrichum were used with eight (5.5 mm large seeds and six (6.5 mm large seeds replications. All seeds submitted to PDA medium had their germination reduced in comparison to the control seeds. This reduction was also observed when seed vigor and leached ions were considered. The presence of Phomopsis sojae fungus in soybean seed samples submitted to the EC test may be the cause of misleading results.
Darrh, A.; Downs, C. M.; Poppeliers, C.
2017-12-01
Born Scattering Inversion (BSI) of electromagnetic (EM) data is a geophysical imaging methodology for mapping weak conductivity, permeability, and/or permittivity contrasts in the subsurface. The high computational cost of full waveform inversion is reduced by adopting the First Born Approximation for scattered EM fields. This linearizes the inverse problem in terms of Born scattering amplitudes for a set of effective EM body sources within a 3D imaging volume. Estimation of scatterer amplitudes is subsequently achieved by solving the normal equations. Our present BSI numerical experiments entail Fourier transforming real-valued synthetic EM data to the frequency-domain, and minimizing the L2 residual between complex-valued observed and predicted data. We are testing the ability of BSI to resolve simple scattering models. For our initial experiments, synthetic data are acquired by three-component (3C) electric field receivers distributed on a plane above a single point electric dipole within a homogeneous and isotropic wholespace. To suppress artifacts, candidate Born scatterer locations are confined to a volume beneath the receiver array. Also, we explore two different numerical linear algebra algorithms for solving the normal equations: Damped Least Squares (DLS), and Non-Negative Least Squares (NNLS). Results from NNLS accurately recover the source location only for a large dense 3C receiver array, but fail when the array is decimated, or is restricted to horizontal component data. Using all receiver stations and all components per station, NNLS results are relatively insensitive to a sub-sampled frequency spectrum, suggesting that coarse frequency-domain sampling may be adequate for good target resolution. Results from DLS are insensitive to diminishing array density, but contain spatially oscillatory structure. DLS-generated images are consistently centered at the known point source location, despite an abundance of surrounding structure.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Paananen, M.; Lehtonen, T.; Korhonen, K. (Geological Survey of Finland, Espoo (FI))
2007-05-15
The goal of this work is to construct a composite electrical model of Olkiluoto, focussing on integration of four separate geophysical methods: mise-a-la-masse (MAM), SAMPO EM soundings, Slingram (HLEM) and single-hole electrical soundings. The electrical structure of Olkiluoto is rather complex, dominated by mineral electrical conductors such as sulphide minerals and graphite. The basic idea of this work is the fact that the sulphide-rich zones and fracturing appear to coincide frequently. Accordingly, knowing the geometry of the major electric conductors would facilitate the interpretation of brittle deformation zones. The work consists of three separate phases: method-specific interpretation, integration and block modelling. In the single-hole interpretation, locations of electric conductors (resistivity < 1000 ohmm), based on long normal survey have been determined in 42 drillholes. Since MAM survey does not cover all the conductive sections and drillholes and SAMPO EM has its own limitations in sensitivity and resolution, a proportion of the conductive sections have been combined between the drillholes using only the single-hole data and the geological idea of features dipping gently to SE - S. The MAM survey has been done in numerous drillholes in order to find galvanic connections between the drillholes. Based on MAM, geometry of numerous electric conductors has been determined. Generally the results indicate continuous, gently dipping semiplanar features intersected by several drillholes. The Slingram survey and interpretation have been done on the ground surface to map electric conductors located at shallow depths (some tens of meters at maximum). A number of conductive zones have been delineated, trending mainly from ENE to WSW. The conductors have also been classified according to their in-phase/quadrature-ratio, and in some cases, also numerical modelling has been done. The SAMPO EM soundings and interpretations have been done to map subsurface electric
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Paananen, M.; Lehtonen, T.; Korhonen, K.
2007-05-01
The goal of this work is to construct a composite electrical model of Olkiluoto, focussing on integration of four separate geophysical methods: mise-a-la-masse (MAM), SAMPO EM soundings, Slingram (HLEM) and single-hole electrical soundings. The electrical structure of Olkiluoto is rather complex, dominated by mineral electrical conductors such as sulphide minerals and graphite. The basic idea of this work is the fact that the sulphide-rich zones and fracturing appear to coincide frequently. Accordingly, knowing the geometry of the major electric conductors would facilitate the interpretation of brittle deformation zones. The work consists of three separate phases: method-specific interpretation, integration and block modelling. In the single-hole interpretation, locations of electric conductors (resistivity < 1000 ohmm), based on long normal survey have been determined in 42 drillholes. Since MAM survey does not cover all the conductive sections and drillholes and SAMPO EM has its own limitations in sensitivity and resolution, a proportion of the conductive sections have been combined between the drillholes using only the single-hole data and the geological idea of features dipping gently to SE - S. The MAM survey has been done in numerous drillholes in order to find galvanic connections between the drillholes. Based on MAM, geometry of numerous electric conductors has been determined. Generally the results indicate continuous, gently dipping semiplanar features intersected by several drillholes. The Slingram survey and interpretation have been done on the ground surface to map electric conductors located at shallow depths (some tens of meters at maximum). A number of conductive zones have been delineated, trending mainly from ENE to WSW. The conductors have also been classified according to their in-phase/quadrature-ratio, and in some cases, also numerical modelling has been done. The SAMPO EM soundings and interpretations have been done to map subsurface electric
Modelling electric discharge chemistry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
McFarlane, J.; Wren, J.C.
1991-07-01
The chemistry occurring in a electric discharge was modelled to predict how it would be influenced by discharge conditions. The discharge was characterized by a calculated Boltzmann electron-energy distribution, from which rate constants for electron-molecule processes in air were determined. These rate constants were used in a chemical kinetics calculation that also included reactions between neutral molecules, ions, free radicals and electronically excited species. The model describes how the discharge chemistry was influenced by humidity, electric field, electron number density, and concentrations of key reagents identified in the study. The use of an electric discharge to destroy airborne contaminant molecules was appraised, the targeted contaminants being CF 2 Cl 2 , HCN, and SO 2 . The modelling results indicate that an electric discharge should be able to remove HCN and CF 2 Cl 2 effectively, especially if the discharge conditions have been optimized. Effective destruction is achieved with a moderate electric field (over 1 x 10 -15 V.cm 2 ), a substantial electron number density (over 1 x 10 12 cm -3 ), and the presence of H 2 0 in the process air. The residence time in the discharge was also shown to be important in contaminant destruction. An attempt was made to explain the results of the electric discharge abatement of SO 2 , a component of a simulated flue-gas mixture. Results from the model indicate that the discharge parameters that increase the concentration of hydroxyl radical also increase the rate of decomposition of SO 2 . An objective of the study was to explain the apparent enhancement of SO 2 destruction by the presence of a small amount of NO 2 . It was thought that a likely explanation would be the stabilization of HOSO 2 , an important intermediate in the oxidation of SO 2 by NO 2 . (49 figs., 14 tabs., 75 refs.)
A shock absorber model for structure-borne noise analyses
Benaziz, Marouane; Nacivet, Samuel; Thouverez, Fabrice
2015-08-01
Shock absorbers are often responsible for undesirable structure-borne noise in cars. The early numerical prediction of this noise in the automobile development process can save time and money and yet remains a challenge for industry. In this paper, a new approach to predicting shock absorber structure-borne noise is proposed; it consists in modelling the shock absorber and including the main nonlinear phenomena responsible for discontinuities in the response. The model set forth herein features: compressible fluid behaviour, nonlinear flow rate-pressure relations, valve mechanical equations and rubber mounts. The piston, base valve and complete shock absorber model are compared with experimental results. Sensitivity of the shock absorber response is evaluated and the most important parameters are classified. The response envelope is also computed. This shock absorber model is able to accurately reproduce local nonlinear phenomena and improves our state of knowledge on potential noise sources within the shock absorber.
Electric transition dipole moment in pre-Born-Oppenheimer molecular structure theory.
Simmen, Benjamin; Mátyus, Edit; Reiher, Markus
2014-10-21
This paper presents the calculation of the electric transition dipole moment in a pre-Born-Oppenheimer framework. Electrons and nuclei are treated equally in terms of the parametrization of the non-relativistic total wave function, which is written as a linear combination of basis functions constructed from explicitly correlated Gaussian functions and the global vector representation. The integrals of the electric transition dipole moment are derived corresponding to these basis functions in both the length and the velocity representation. The calculations are performed in laboratory-fixed Cartesian coordinates without relying on coordinates which separate the center of mass from the translationally invariant degrees of freedom. The effect of the overall motion is eliminated through translationally invariant integral expressions. The electric transition dipole moment is calculated between two rovibronic levels of the H2 molecule assignable to the lowest rovibrational states of the X (1)Σ(g)(+) and B (1)Σ(u)(+) electronic states in the clamped-nuclei framework. This is the first evaluation of this quantity in a full quantum mechanical treatment without relying on the Born-Oppenheimer approximation.
Forward modeling of space-borne gravitational wave detectors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rubbo, Louis J.; Cornish, Neil J.; Poujade, Olivier
2004-01-01
Planning is underway for several space-borne gravitational wave observatories to be built in the next 10 to 20 years. Realistic and efficient forward modeling will play a key role in the design and operation of these observatories. Space-borne interferometric gravitational wave detectors operate very differently from their ground-based counterparts. Complex orbital motion, virtual interferometry, and finite size effects complicate the description of space-based systems, while nonlinear control systems complicate the description of ground-based systems. Here we explore the forward modeling of space-based gravitational wave detectors and introduce an adiabatic approximation to the detector response that significantly extends the range of the standard low frequency approximation. The adiabatic approximation will aid in the development of data analysis techniques, and improve the modeling of astrophysical parameter extraction
Guo, Guang-Yu; Ishibashi, Shoji; Tamura, Tomoyuki; Terakura, Kiyoyuki
2007-03-01
Since the discovery of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) in 1991 by Iijima, carbon and other nanotubes have attracted considerable interest worldwide because of their unusual properties and also great potentials for technological applications. Though CNTs continue to attract great interest, other nanotubes such as BN nanotubes (BN-NTs) may offer different opportunities that CNTs cannot provide. In this contribution, we present the results of our recent systematic ab initio calculations of the static dielectric constant, electric polarizability, Born dynamical charge, electrostriction coefficient and piezoelectric constant of BN-NTs using the latest crystalline finite electric field theory [1]. [1] I. Souza, J. Iniguez, and D. Vanderbilt, Phys. Rev. Lett. 89, 117602 (2002); P. Umari and A. Pasquarello, Phys. Rev. Lett. 89, 157602 (2002).
Animal Models of Tick-Borne Hemorrhagic Fever Viruses
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Heinz Feldmann
2013-05-01
Full Text Available Tick-borne hemorrhagic fever viruses (TBHFV are detected throughout the African and Eurasian continents and are an emerging or re-emerging threat to many nations. Due to the largely sporadic incidences of these severe diseases, information on human cases and research activities in general have been limited. In the past decade, however, novel TBHFVs have emerged and areas of endemicity have expanded. Therefore, the development of countermeasures is of utmost importance in combating TBHFV as elimination of vectors and interrupting enzootic cycles is all but impossible and ecologically questionable. As in vivo models are the only way to test efficacy and safety of countermeasures, understanding of the available animal models and the development and refinement of animal models is critical in negating the detrimental impact of TBHFVs on public and animal health.
An Overview of Animal Models for Arthropod-Borne Viruses.
Reynolds, Erin S; Hart, Charles E; Hermance, Meghan E; Brining, Douglas L; Thangamani, Saravanan
2017-06-01
Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) have continued to emerge in recent years, posing a significant health threat to millions of people worldwide. The majority of arboviruses that are pathogenic to humans are transmitted by mosquitoes and ticks, but other types of arthropod vectors can also be involved in the transmission of these viruses. To alleviate the health burdens associated with arbovirus infections, it is necessary to focus today's research on disease control and therapeutic strategies. Animal models for arboviruses are valuable experimental tools that can shed light on the pathophysiology of infection and will enable the evaluation of future treatments and vaccine candidates. Ideally an animal model will closely mimic the disease manifestations observed in humans. In this review, we outline the currently available animal models for several viruses vectored by mosquitoes, ticks, and midges, for which there are no standardly available vaccines or therapeutics.
Large-scale parameter extraction in electrocardiology models through Born approximation
He, Yuan
2012-12-04
One of the main objectives in electrocardiology is to extract physical properties of cardiac tissues from measured information on electrical activity of the heart. Mathematically, this is an inverse problem for reconstructing coefficients in electrocardiology models from partial knowledge of the solutions of the models. In this work, we consider such parameter extraction problems for two well-studied electrocardiology models: the bidomain model and the FitzHugh-Nagumo model. We propose a systematic reconstruction method based on the Born approximation of the original nonlinear inverse problem. We describe a two-step procedure that allows us to reconstruct not only perturbations of the unknowns, but also the backgrounds around which the linearization is performed. We show some numerical simulations under various conditions to demonstrate the performance of our method. We also introduce a parameterization strategy using eigenfunctions of the Laplacian operator to reduce the number of unknowns in the parameter extraction problem. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.
A surface hydrology model for regional vector borne disease models
Tompkins, Adrian; Asare, Ernest; Bomblies, Arne; Amekudzi, Leonard
2016-04-01
Small, sun-lit temporary pools that form during the rainy season are important breeding sites for many key mosquito vectors responsible for the transmission of malaria and other diseases. The representation of this surface hydrology in mathematical disease models is challenging, due to their small-scale, dependence on the terrain and the difficulty of setting soil parameters. Here we introduce a model that represents the temporal evolution of the aggregate statistics of breeding sites in a single pond fractional coverage parameter. The model is based on a simple, geometrical assumption concerning the terrain, and accounts for the processes of surface runoff, pond overflow, infiltration and evaporation. Soil moisture, soil properties and large-scale terrain slope are accounted for using a calibration parameter that sets the equivalent catchment fraction. The model is calibrated and then evaluated using in situ pond measurements in Ghana and ultra-high (10m) resolution explicit simulations for a village in Niger. Despite the model's simplicity, it is shown to reproduce the variability and mean of the pond aggregate water coverage well for both locations and validation techniques. Example malaria simulations for Uganda will be shown using this new scheme with a generic calibration setting, evaluated using district malaria case data. Possible methods for implementing regional calibration will be briefly discussed.
Adaptive hierarchical grid model of water-borne pollutant dispersion
Borthwick, A. G. L.; Marchant, R. D.; Copeland, G. J. M.
Water pollution by industrial and agricultural waste is an increasingly major public health issue. It is therefore important for water engineers and managers to be able to predict accurately the local behaviour of water-borne pollutants. This paper describes the novel and efficient coupling of dynamically adaptive hierarchical grids with standard solvers of the advection-diffusion equation. Adaptive quadtree grids are able to focus on regions of interest such as pollutant fronts, while retaining economy in the total number of grid elements through selective grid refinement. Advection is treated using Lagrangian particle tracking. Diffusion is solved separately using two grid-based methods; one is by explicit finite differences, the other a diffusion-velocity approach. Results are given in two dimensions for pure diffusion of an initially Gaussian plume, advection-diffusion of the Gaussian plume in the rotating flow field of a forced vortex, and the transport of species in a rectangular channel with side wall boundary layers. Close agreement is achieved with analytical solutions of the advection-diffusion equation and simulations from a Lagrangian random walk model. An application to Sepetiba Bay, Brazil is included to demonstrate the method with complex flows and topography.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Valgas, Helio Moreira; Pinto, Roberto del Giudice R.; Franca, Carlos [Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais (CEMIG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil); Lambert-Torres, Germano; Silva, Alexandre P. Alves da; Pires, Robson Celso; Costa, Junior, Roberto Affonso [Escola Federal de Engenharia de Itajuba, MG (Brazil)
1994-12-31
Accurate dynamic load models allow more precise calculations of power system controls and stability limits, which are critical mainly in the operation planning of power systems. This paper describes the development of a computer program (software) for static and dynamic load model studies using the measurement approach for the CEMIG system. Two dynamic load model structures are developed and tested. A procedure for applying a set of measured data from an on-line transient recording system to develop load models is described. (author) 6 refs., 17 figs.
The Dynamic Internationalization Model of Slovenian Born Global SMEs
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ina Lejko
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs are important businessactors in the Slovenian, as well as European economy. Inaddition to the current global market conditions, reflecting a severeeconomic downturn, the SMEs in Slovenia and other transitioneconomies operate under additional extensive external pressures,arising from the opening of their domestic markets. Undersuch conditions, companies, including SMEs, perceive internationalizationas an inevitable, or even urgent step in the processof their business operations. However, companies pursue differentpaths in their internationalization efforts, one of them beinga rapid internationalization strategy, denoted as the Born Globalconcept. In the paper, we explore the internationalization processof Slovenian Born Global SMEs. We employ an exploratory qualitativecase study analysis of selected Slovenian SMEs in order tograsp the key characteristics of their internationalization process.On the basis of the latter we construct a dynamic internationalizationmodel that might be used as a conceptual framework forempirical research of dynamic SMEs market behavior in Sloveniaand other transition countries.
Modeling electrically active viscoelastic membranes.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sitikantha Roy
Full Text Available The membrane protein prestin is native to the cochlear outer hair cell that is crucial to the ear's amplification and frequency selectivity throughout the whole acoustic frequency range. The outer hair cell exhibits interrelated dimensional changes, force generation, and electric charge transfer. Cells transfected with prestin acquire unique active properties similar to those in the native cell that have also been useful in understanding the process. Here we propose a model describing the major electromechanical features of such active membranes. The model derived from thermodynamic principles is in the form of integral relationships between the history of voltage and membrane resultants as independent variables and the charge density and strains as dependent variables. The proposed model is applied to the analysis of an active force produced by the outer hair cell in response to a harmonic electric field. Our analysis reveals the mechanism of the outer hair cell active (isometric force having an almost constant amplitude and phase up to 80 kHz. We found that the frequency-invariance of the force is a result of interplay between the electrical filtering associated with prestin and power law viscoelasticity of the surrounding membrane. Paradoxically, the membrane viscoelasticity boosts the force balancing the electrical filtering effect. We also consider various modes of electromechanical coupling in membrane with prestin associated with mechanical perturbations in the cell. We consider pressure or strains applied step-wise or at a constant rate and compute the time course of the resulting electric charge. The results obtained here are important for the analysis of electromechanical properties of membranes, cells, and biological materials as well as for a better understanding of the mechanism of hearing and the role of the protein prestin in this mechanism.
A multi-scale modeling of surface effect via the modified boundary Cauchy-Born model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Khoei, A.R., E-mail: arkhoei@sharif.edu; Aramoon, A.
2012-10-01
In this paper, a new multi-scale approach is presented based on the modified boundary Cauchy-Born (MBCB) technique to model the surface effects of nano-structures. The salient point of the MBCB model is the definition of radial quadrature used in the surface elements which is an indicator of material behavior. The characteristics of quadrature are derived by interpolating data from atoms laid in a circular support around the quadrature, in a least-square scene. The total-Lagrangian formulation is derived for the equivalent continua by employing the Cauchy-Born hypothesis for calculating the strain energy density function of the continua. The numerical results of the proposed method are compared with direct atomistic and finite element simulation results to indicate that the proposed technique provides promising results for modeling surface effects of nano-structures. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A multi-scale approach is presented to model the surface effects in nano-structures. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The total-Lagrangian formulation is derived by employing the Cauchy-Born hypothesis. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The radial quadrature is used to model the material behavior in surface elements. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The quadrature characteristics are derived using the data at the atomistic level.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yamada, Y.; Imanishi, T.; Yoshida, O.; Mizuno, A. [ABB Japan, Tokyo (Japan)
2010-07-01
The electrostatic rotary atomizer is the most efficient of all liquid spray painting methods. Its use minimizes the waste of paint and reduces emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Water-borne painting processes which use water-soluble paint also reduce VOC emissions, but the atomizer body is easily contaminated by the paint mists. The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) considered the causes of water-borne paint contamination and presented the experimental results of a contamination proof system in which the atomizer is surrounded by the repelling film that is charged and repels the incoming paint droplets. Among the key factors for repelling film were electrical properties, such as low capacitance and high insulation to keep high surface potential. Charging uniformity was found to be among the most important characteristic to avoid contamination. The pulse electro-acoustic (PEA) method was used to check these features using space charge measurements inside the repelling film. It was concluded that hetero layer films have more uniform charging characteristics than single layer films.
TU electric reactor model verification
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Willingham, C.E.; Killgore, M.R.
1989-01-01
Power reactor benchmark calculations using the code package CASMO-3/SIMULATE-3 have been performed for six cycles of Prairie Island Unit 1. The reload fuel designs for the selected cycles include gadolinia as a burnable absorber, natural uranium axial blankets, and increased water-to-fuel ratio. The calculated results for both low-power physics tests (boron end points, control rod worths, and isothermal temperature coefficients) and full-power operation (power distributions and boron letdown) are compared to measured plant data. These comparisons show that the TU Electric reactor physics models accurately predict important physics parameters for power reactors
Dix, Laura Marie Louise; Weeke, Lauren Carleen; de Vries, Linda Simone; Groenendaal, Floris; Baerts, Willem; van Bel, Frank; Lemmers, Petra Maria Anna
2017-08-01
To evaluate the effects of acute arterial carbon dioxide partial pressure changes on cerebral oxygenation and electrical activity in infants born preterm. This retrospective observational study included ventilated infants born preterm with acute fluctuations of continuous end-tidal CO 2 (etCO 2 ) as a surrogate marker for arterial carbon dioxide partial pressure, during the first 72 hours of life. Regional cerebral oxygen saturation and fractional tissue oxygen extraction were monitored with near-infrared spectroscopy. Brain activity was monitored with 2-channel electroencephalography. Spontaneous activity transients (SATs) rate (SATs/minute) and interval between SATs (in seconds) were calculated. Ten-minute periods were selected for analysis: before, during, and after etCO 2 fluctuations of ≥5 mm Hg. Thirty-eight patients (mean ± SD gestational age of 29 ± 1.8 weeks) were included, with 60 episodes of etCO 2 increase and 70 episodes of etCO 2 decrease. During etCO 2 increases, brain oxygenation increased (regional cerebral oxygen saturation increased, fractional tissue oxygen extraction decreased; P carbon dioxide partial pressure that may be harmful to the neonatal brain. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Anderson, H. R.; Cloutier, P. A.
1975-01-01
A rocket-borne experiment package has been designed to obtain simultaneous in situ measurements of the pitch angle distributions and energy spectra of primary auroral particles, the flux of neutral hydrogen at auroral energies, the electric currents flowing in the vicinity of the auroral arc as determined from vector magnetic data, and the modulation of precipitating electrons in the frequency range 0.5-10 MHz. The experiment package was launched by a Nike-Tomahawk rocket from Poker Flat, Alaska, at 0722 UT on Feb. 25, 1972, over a bright auroral band. This paper is intended to serve as an introduction to the detailed discussion of results given in the companion papers. As such it includes a brief review of the general problem, a discussion of the rocket instrumentation, a delineation of the auroral and geomagnetic conditions at the time of launch, and comments on the overall payload performance.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Anderson, H.R.; Cloutier, P.A.
1975-01-01
A rocket-borne experiment package has been designed to obtain simultaneous in situ measurements of the pitch angle distribution and energy spectra of primary auroral particles, the flux of neutral hydrogen at auroral energies, the electric currents flowing in the vicinity of the auroral arc as determined from vector magnetic data, and the modulation of precipitating electrons in the frequency range 0.5-10 MHz. The experiment package was launched by a Nike-Tomahawk rocket from Poker Flat, Alaska, at 0722 UT on February 25, 1972, over a bright auroral band. This paper is intended to serve as an introduction to the detailed discussion of results given in the companion papers. As such it includes a brief review of the general problem, a discussion of the rocket instrumentation, a delineation of the auroral and geomagnetic conditions at the time of launch, and comments on the overall payload performance
A strategic review of electricity systems models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Foley, A.M.; O Gallachoir, B.P.; McKeogh, E.J.; Hur, J.; Baldick, R.
2010-01-01
Electricity systems models are software tools used to manage electricity demand and the electricity systems, to trade electricity and for generation expansion planning purposes. Various portfolios and scenarios are modelled in order to compare the effects of decision making in policy and on business development plans in electricity systems so as to best advise governments and industry on the least cost economic and environmental approach to electricity supply, while maintaining a secure supply of sufficient quality electricity. The modelling techniques developed to study vertically integrated state monopolies are now applied in liberalised markets where the issues and constraints are more complex. This paper reviews the changing role of electricity systems modelling in a strategic manner, focussing on the modelling response to key developments, the move away from monopoly towards liberalised market regimes and the increasing complexity brought about by policy targets for renewable energy and emissions. The paper provides an overview of electricity systems modelling techniques, discusses a number of key proprietary electricity systems models used in the USA and Europe and provides an information resource to the electricity analyst not currently readily available in the literature on the choice of model to investigate different aspects of the electricity system. (author)
Using the gravity model to estimate the spatial spread of vector-borne diseases
Barrios, J.M.; Verstraeten, W.W.; Maes, P.; Aerts, J.; Farifteh, J.; Coppin, P.
2012-01-01
The gravity models are commonly used spatial interaction models. They have been widely applied in a large set of domains dealing with interactions amongst spatial entities. The spread of vector-borne diseases is also related to the intensity of interaction between spatial entities, namely, the
Results of the first tests of the SIDRA satellite-borne instrument breadboard model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dudnik, O.V.; Kurbatov, E.V.; Avilov, A.M.; Titov, K.G.; Prieto, M; Sanchez, S.; Spassky, A.V.; Sylwester, J.; Gburek, S.; Podgorski, P.
2013-01-01
In this work, the results of the calibration of the solid-state detectors and electronic channels of the SIDRA satellite borne energetic charged particle spectrometer-telescope breadboard model are presented. The block schemes and experimental equipment used to conduct the thermal vacuum and electromagnetic compatibility tests of the assemblies and modules of the compact satellite equipment are described. The results of the measured thermal conditions of operation of the signal analog and digital processing critical modules of the SIDRA instrument prototype are discussed. Finally, the levels of conducted interference generated by the instrument model in the primary vehicle-borne power circuits are presented.
Modelling and designing electric energy networks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Retiere, N.
2003-11-01
The author gives an overview of his research works in the field of electric network modelling. After a brief overview of technological evolutions from the telegraph to the all-electric fly-by-wire aircraft, he reports and describes various works dealing with a simplified modelling of electric systems and with fractal simulation. Then, he outlines the challenges for the design of electric networks, proposes a design process, gives an overview of various design models, methods and tools, and reports an application in the design of electric networks for future jumbo jets
A hybrid model for electricity spot prices
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Anderson, C.L.D.
2004-01-01
Electricity prices were highly regulated prior to the deregulation of the electric power industry. Prices were predictable, allowing generators and wholesalers to calculate their production costs and revenues. With deregulation, electricity has become the most volatile of all commodities. Electricity must be consumed as soon as it is generated due to the inability to store it in any sufficient quantity. Economic uncertainty exists because the supply of electricity cannot shift as quickly as the demand, which is highly variable. When demand increases quickly, the price must respond. Therefore, price spikes occur that are orders of magnitude higher than the base electricity price. This paper presents a robust and realistic model for spot market electricity prices used to manage risk in volatile markets. The model is a hybrid of a top down data driven method commonly used for financial applications, and a bottom up system driven method commonly used in regulated electricity markets. The advantage of the model is that it incorporates primary system drivers and demonstrates their effects on final prices. The 4 primary modules of the model are: (1) a model for forced outages, (2) a model for maintenance outages, (3) an electrical load model, and (4) a price model which combines the results of the previous 3 models. The performance of each model was tested. The forced outage model is the first of its kind to simulate the system on an aggregate basis using Weibull distributions. The overall spot price model was calibrated to, and tested with, data from the electricity market in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland. The model performed well in simulated market prices and adapted readily to changing system conditions and new electricity markets. This study examined the pricing of derivative contracts on electrical power. It also compared a range of portfolio scenarios using a Cash Flow at Risk approach
A hybrid model for electricity spot prices
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Anderson, C.L.D.
2004-07-01
Electricity prices were highly regulated prior to the deregulation of the electric power industry. Prices were predictable, allowing generators and wholesalers to calculate their production costs and revenues. With deregulation, electricity has become the most volatile of all commodities. Electricity must be consumed as soon as it is generated due to the inability to store it in any sufficient quantity. Economic uncertainty exists because the supply of electricity cannot shift as quickly as the demand, which is highly variable. When demand increases quickly, the price must respond. Therefore, price spikes occur that are orders of magnitude higher than the base electricity price. This paper presents a robust and realistic model for spot market electricity prices used to manage risk in volatile markets. The model is a hybrid of a top down data driven method commonly used for financial applications, and a bottom up system driven method commonly used in regulated electricity markets. The advantage of the model is that it incorporates primary system drivers and demonstrates their effects on final prices. The 4 primary modules of the model are: (1) a model for forced outages, (2) a model for maintenance outages, (3) an electrical load model, and (4) a price model which combines the results of the previous 3 models. The performance of each model was tested. The forced outage model is the first of its kind to simulate the system on an aggregate basis using Weibull distributions. The overall spot price model was calibrated to, and tested with, data from the electricity market in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland. The model performed well in simulated market prices and adapted readily to changing system conditions and new electricity markets. This study examined the pricing of derivative contracts on electrical power. It also compared a range of portfolio scenarios using a Cash Flow at Risk approach.
MODEL OF A PERSONWALKING AS A STRUCTURE BORNE SOUND SOURCE
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lievens, Matthias; Brunskog, Jonas
2007-01-01
has to be considered and the contact history must be integrated in the model. This is complicated by the fact that nonlinearities occur at different stages in the system either on the source or receiver side. ot only lightweight structures but also soft floor coverings would benefit from an accurate...
Tabletop Models for Electrical and Electromagnetic Geophysics.
Young, Charles T.
2002-01-01
Details the use of tabletop models that demonstrate concepts in direct current electrical resistivity, self-potential, and electromagnetic geophysical models. Explains how data profiles of the models are obtained. (DDR)
Boerlage, A.S.; Graat, E.A.M.; Verreth, J.A.J.; Jong, de M.C.M.
2013-01-01
Fish-borne Zoonotic Trematodes (FZTs) are a risk to human health and need to be controlled. A mathematical model was developed to give insight into how and to what extent control strategies change the dynamics of FZTs on integrated agriculture–aquaculture farms. The reproduction ratio R evaluates
Using the Gravity Model to Estimate the Spatial Spread of Vector-Borne Diseases
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jean-Marie Aerts
2012-11-01
Full Text Available The gravity models are commonly used spatial interaction models. They have been widely applied in a large set of domains dealing with interactions amongst spatial entities. The spread of vector-borne diseases is also related to the intensity of interaction between spatial entities, namely, the physical habitat of pathogens’ vectors and/or hosts, and urban areas, thus humans. This study implements the concept behind gravity models in the spatial spread of two vector-borne diseases, nephropathia epidemica and Lyme borreliosis, based on current knowledge on the transmission mechanism of these diseases. Two sources of information on vegetated systems were tested: the CORINE land cover map and MODIS NDVI. The size of vegetated areas near urban centers and a local indicator of occupation-related exposure were found significant predictors of disease risk. Both the land cover map and the space-borne dataset were suited yet not equivalent input sources to locate and measure vegetated areas of importance for disease spread. The overall results point at the compatibility of the gravity model concept and the spatial spread of vector-borne diseases.
Toward a multifactorial model of expertise: beyond born versus made.
Hambrick, David Z; Burgoyne, Alexander P; Macnamara, Brooke N; Ullén, Fredrik
2018-02-15
The debate over the origins of individual differences in expertise has raged for over a century in psychology. The "nature" view holds that expertise reflects "innate talent"-that is, genetically determined abilities. The "nurture" view counters that, if talent even exists, its effects on ultimate performance are negligible. While no scientist takes seriously a strict nature-only view of expertise, the nurture view has gained tremendous popularity over the past several decades. This environmentalist view holds that individual differences in expertise reflect training history, with no important contribution to ultimate performance by innate ability ("talent"). Here, we argue that, despite its popularity, this view is inadequate to account for the evidence concerning the origins of expertise that has accumulated since the view was first proposed. More generally, we argue that the nature versus nurture debate in research on expertise is over-or certainly should be, as it has been in other areas of psychological research for decades. We describe a multifactorial model for research on the nature and nurture of expertise, which we believe will provide a progressive direction for future research on expertise. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.
Kon, Cynthia Mui Lian; Labadin, Jane
2016-06-01
Malaria is a critical infection caused by parasites which are spread to humans through mosquito bites. Approximately half of the world's population is in peril of getting infected by malaria. Mosquito-borne diseases have a standard behavior where they are transmitted in the same manner, only through vector mosquito. Taking this into account, a generic spatial-temporal model for transmission of multiple mosquito-borne diseases had been formulated. Our interest is to reproduce the actual cases of different mosquito-borne diseases using the generic model and then predict future cases so as to improve control and target measures competently. In this paper, we utilize notified weekly malaria cases in four districts in Sarawak, Malaysia, namely Kapit, Song, Belaga and Marudi. The actual cases for 36 weeks, which is from week 39 in 2012 to week 22 in 2013, are compared with simulations of the generic spatial-temporal transmission mosquito-borne diseases model. We observe that the simulation results display corresponding result to the actual malaria cases in the four districts.
Modelling carbon emissions in electric systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lau, E.T.; Yang, Q.; Forbes, A.B.; Wright, P.; Livina, V.N.
2014-01-01
Highlights: • We model carbon emissions in electric systems. • We estimate emissions in generated and consumed energy with UK carbon factors. • We model demand profiles with novel function based on hyperbolic tangents. • We study datasets of UK Elexon database, Brunel PV system and Irish SmartGrid. • We apply Ensemble Kalman Filter to forecast energy data in these case studies. - Abstract: We model energy consumption of network electricity and compute Carbon emissions (CE) based on obtained energy data. We review various models of electricity consumption and propose an adaptive seasonal model based on the Hyperbolic tangent function (HTF). We incorporate HTF to define seasonal and daily trends of electricity demand. We then build a stochastic model that combines the trends and white noise component and the resulting simulations are estimated using Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), which provides ensemble simulations of groups of electricity consumers; similarly, we estimate carbon emissions from electricity generators. Three case studies of electricity generation and consumption are modelled: Brunel University photovoltaic generation data, Elexon national electricity generation data (various fuel types) and Irish smart grid data, with ensemble estimations by EnKF and computation of carbon emissions. We show the flexibility of HTF-based functions for modelling realistic cycles of energy consumption, the efficiency of EnKF in ensemble estimation of energy consumption and generation, and report the obtained estimates of the carbon emissions in the considered case studies
Students’ mental model in electric current
Pramesti, Y. S.; Setyowidodo, I.
2018-05-01
Electricity is one of essential topic in learning physics. This topic was studied in elementary until university level. Although electricity was related to our daily activities, but it doesn’t ensure that students have the correct concept. The aim of this research was to investigate and then categorized the students’ mental model. Subject consisted of 59 students of mechanical engineering that studied Physics for Engineering. This study was used a qualitative approach that used in this research is phenomenology. Data were analyzed qualitatively by using pre-test, post-test, and investigation for discovering further information. Three models were reported, showing a pattern which related to individual way of thinking about electric current. The mental model that was discovered in this research are: 1) electric current as a flow; 2) electric current as a source of energy, 3) electric current as a moving charge.
Model documentation: Electricity market module, electricity finance and pricing submodule
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
1994-04-07
The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the model, describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. The EFP is a regulatory accounting model that projects electricity prices. The model first solves for revenue requirements by building up a rate base, calculating a return on rate base, and adding the allowed expenses. Average revenues (prices) are calculated based on assumptions regarding regulator lag and customer cost allocation methods. The model then solves for the internal cash flow and analyzes the need for external financing to meet necessary capital expenditures. Finally, the EFP builds up the financial statements. The EFP is used in conjunction with the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Inputs to the EFP include the forecast generating capacity expansion plans, operating costs, regulator environment, and financial data. The outputs include forecasts of income statements, balance sheets, revenue requirements, and electricity prices.
MODEL OF CHANNEL AIRBORN ELECTRICAL POWER SYSTEM
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. G. Demchenko
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This article is devoted to math modeling of channel of alternate current airborne electrical power-supply system. Considered to modeling of synchronous generator that runs on three-phase static load.
Dynamical behavior of an epidemic model for a vector-borne disease with direct transmission
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cai Liming; Li Xuezhi; Li Zhaoqiang
2013-01-01
An epidemic model of a vector-borne disease with direct transmission is investigated. The reproduction number (R 0 ) of the model is obtained. Rigorous qualitative analysis of the model reveals the presence of the phenomenon of backward bifurcation (where the stable disease-free equilibrium (DFE) coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium when the reproduction number of the disease is less than unity) in the standard incidence model. The phenomenon shows that the classical epidemiological requirement of having the reproduction number less than unity is no longer sufficient, although necessary, for effectively controlling the spread of some vector-borne diseases in a community. The backward bifurcation phenomenon can be removed by substituting the standard incidence with a bilinear mass action incidence. By using Lyapunov function theory and LaSalle invariance principle, it is shown that the unique endemic equilibrium for the model with a mass action incidence is globally stable if the reproduction number R mass is greater than one in feasible region. This suggests that the use of standard incidence in modelling some vector-borne diseases with direct transmission results in the presence of backward bifurcation. Numerical simulations analyze the effect of the direct transmission and the disease-induced death rate on dynamics of the disease transmission, and also verify our analyzed results.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marlene Johansson
2014-08-01
Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this article is to investigate how business models are used by born global firms to act upon new business opportunities and how they manage business model innovation over time to prosper and grow. Design/Methodology: The study is based on three exploratory case studies of born global firms in mobile communication, financial services and digital music distribution. Findings: Three interrelated capabilities to manage business model innovation are articulated in the context of born global firms; sensing capabilities, entrepreneurial capabilities and relational capabilities and four propositions are formulated. We find that business model innovations are used as a tool by maturing born global firms to navigate the value chains and achieve international growth. We further propose that born global need the capabilities to balance different business model designs simultaneously and to manage its business model innovation in a timely manner. Originality: This article contributes to both the business model literature and research of international entrepreneurship. By putting business model research into the dynamic context of rapidly internationalizing born global firms, we contribute to the field of business model research with findings of how business models are used in the internationalization processes. Certain capabilities are needed to manage business model innovation for born global firms to dynamically use business models as a tool in the international growth overtime.
Numerical Modelling of Electrical Discharges
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Durán-Olivencia, F J; Pontiga, F; Castellanos, A
2014-01-01
The problem of the propagation of an electrical discharge between a spherical electrode and a plane has been solved by means of finite element methods (FEM) using a fluid approximation and assuming weak ionization and local equilibrium with the electric field. The numerical simulation of this type of problems presents the usual difficulties of convection-diffusion-reaction problems, in addition to those associated with the nonlinearities of the charged species velocities, the formation of steep gradients of the electric field and particle densities, and the coexistence of very different temporal scales. The effect of using different temporal discretizations for the numerical integration of the corresponding system of partial differential equations will be here investigated. In particular, the so-called θ-methods will be used, which allows to implement implicit, semi-explicit and fully explicit schemes in a simple way
Modeling spot markets for electricity and pricing electricity derivatives
Ning, Yumei
Spot prices for electricity have been very volatile with dramatic price spikes occurring in restructured market. The task of forecasting electricity prices and managing price risk presents a new challenge for market players. The objectives of this dissertation are: (1) to develop a stochastic model of price behavior and predict price spikes; (2) to examine the effect of weather forecasts on forecasted prices; (3) to price electricity options and value generation capacity. The volatile behavior of prices can be represented by a stochastic regime-switching model. In the model, the means of the high-price and low-price regimes and the probabilities of switching from one regime to the other are specified as functions of daily peak load. The probability of switching to the high-price regime is positively related to load, but is still not high enough at the highest loads to predict price spikes accurately. An application of this model shows how the structure of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland market changed when market-based offers were allowed, resulting in higher price spikes. An ARIMA model including temperature, seasonal, and weekly effects is estimated to forecast daily peak load. Forecasts of load under different assumptions about weather patterns are used to predict changes of price behavior given the regime-switching model of prices. Results show that the range of temperature forecasts from a normal summer to an extremely warm summer cause relatively small increases in temperature (+1.5%) and load (+3.0%). In contrast, the increases in prices are large (+20%). The conclusion is that the seasonal outlook forecasts provided by NOAA are potentially valuable for predicting prices in electricity markets. The traditional option models, based on Geometric Brownian Motion are not appropriate for electricity prices. An option model using the regime-switching framework is developed to value a European call option. The model includes volatility risk and allows changes
Modelling prices in competitive electricity markets
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bunn, D.W.
2004-04-01
Electricity markets are structurally different to other commodities, and the real-time dynamic balancing of the electricity network involves many external factors. Because of this, it is not a simple matter to transfer conventional models of financial time series analysis to wholesale electricity prices. The rationale for this compilation of chapters from international authors is, therefore, to provide econometric analysis of wholesale power markets around the world, to give greater understanding of their particular characteristics, and to assess the applicability of various methods of price modelling. Researchers and professionals in this sector will find the book an invaluable guide to the most important state-of-the-art modelling techniques which are converging to define the special approaches necessary for unravelling and forecasting the behaviour of electricity prices. It is a high-quality synthesis of the work of financial engineering, industrial economics and power systems analysis, as they relate to the behaviour of competitive electricity markets. (author)
Electricity load modelling using computational intelligence
Ter Borg, R.W.
2005-01-01
As a consequence of the liberalisation of the electricity markets in Europe, market players have to continuously adapt their future supply to match their customers' demands. This poses the challenge of obtaining a predictive model that accurately describes electricity loads, current in this thesis.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
T. Déirdre Hollingsworth
2015-03-01
Full Text Available Many of the challenges which face modellers of directly transmitted pathogens also arise when modelling the epidemiology of pathogens with indirect transmission – whether through environmental stages, vectors, intermediate hosts or multiple hosts. In particular, understanding the roles of different hosts, how to measure contact and infection patterns, heterogeneities in contact rates, and the dynamics close to elimination are all relevant challenges, regardless of the mode of transmission. However, there remain a number of challenges that are specific and unique to modelling vector-borne diseases and macroparasites. Moreover, many of the neglected tropical diseases which are currently targeted for control and elimination are vector-borne, macroparasitic, or both, and so this article includes challenges which will assist in accelerating the control of these high-burden diseases. Here, we discuss the challenges of indirect measures of infection in humans, whether through vectors or transmission life stages and in estimating the contribution of different host groups to transmission. We also discuss the issues of “evolution-proof” interventions against vector-borne disease.
Hollingsworth, T Déirdre; Pulliam, Juliet R C; Funk, Sebastian; Truscott, James E; Isham, Valerie; Lloyd, Alun L
2015-03-01
Many of the challenges which face modellers of directly transmitted pathogens also arise when modelling the epidemiology of pathogens with indirect transmission--whether through environmental stages, vectors, intermediate hosts or multiple hosts. In particular, understanding the roles of different hosts, how to measure contact and infection patterns, heterogeneities in contact rates, and the dynamics close to elimination are all relevant challenges, regardless of the mode of transmission. However, there remain a number of challenges that are specific and unique to modelling vector-borne diseases and macroparasites. Moreover, many of the neglected tropical diseases which are currently targeted for control and elimination are vector-borne, macroparasitic, or both, and so this article includes challenges which will assist in accelerating the control of these high-burden diseases. Here, we discuss the challenges of indirect measures of infection in humans, whether through vectors or transmission life stages and in estimating the contribution of different host groups to transmission. We also discuss the issues of "evolution-proof" interventions against vector-borne disease. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The impact of global environmental change on vector-borne disease risk: a modelling study
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rachel Lowe, PhD
2018-05-01
Full Text Available Background: Vector-borne diseases, such as dengue virus, Zika virus, and malaria, are highly sensitive to environmental changes, including variations in climate and land-surface characteristics. The emergence and spread of vector-borne diseases is also exacerbated by anthropogenic activities, such as deforestation, mining, urbanisation, and human mobility, which alter the natural habitats of vectors and increase vector–host interactions. Innovative epidemiological modelling tools can help to understand how environmental conditions interact with socioeconomic risk factors to predict the risk of disease transmission. In recent years, climate-health modelling has benefited from computational advances in fitting complex mathematical models; increasing availability of environmental, socioeconomic, and disease surveillance datasets; and improved ability to understand and model the climate system. Climate forecasts at seasonal time scales tend to improve in quality during El Niño-Southern Oscillation events in certain regions of the tropics. Thus, climate forecasts provide an opportunity to anticipate potential outbreaks of vector-borne diseases from several months to a year in advance. The aim of this study was to develop a framework to incorporate seasonal climate forecasts in predictive disease models to understand the future risk of vector-borne diseases, with a focus on dengue fever in Latin America. Methods: A Bayesian spatiotemporal model framework that quantifies the extent to which environmental and socioeconomic indicators can explain variations in disease risk was designed to disentangle the effects of climate from other risk factors using multi-source data and random effects, which account for unknown and unmeasured sources of spatial, seasonal, and inter-annual variation. The model was used to provide probabilistic predictions of monthly dengue incidence and the probability of exceeding outbreak thresholds, which were established in
Electric current model of magnetosphere
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Alfen, H.
1979-05-01
A dualism between the field and the particle approach exists also in plasma physics. A number of phenomena, such as the formation of double layers and the energy transport form one region to another, can be understood only by the particle (electric current) description. Hence a translation of the traditional field description into a particle (electric current) description is essential. Such a translation has earlier been made for the heliosphere. The purpose of this paper is to outline a similar application to the magnetosphere, focussing on the energy transfer from the solar wind. As a first approximation a magnetic field consisting of a dipole field and homogeneous magnetic field is used whereas in a second approximation the configuration is more realistic. (author)
Highway three-dimensional modeling based on Vehicle-borne laser data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Weili, Sun; Ruofei, Zhong; Jiangxia, Wei; Fanyang, Zeng
2014-01-01
The of Vehicle-borne LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) scanning technology is an efficiently practical approach on the acquisition and application of 3D information and its geographic elements of highway(including road surface, rails, attached facilities, slopes, ditches, etc.). The acquired information is significant on many aspects such as road maintenance, reconstruction, survey, landscape design, visualized modelling and highway hazard supervision and prevention. The initial laser data cannot be directly used to construct highway 3D model, operations of pre-processing are necessary. This paper presented a set of procedure about pre-processing laser data and constructing TIN (Triangle Irregular Net) model of highway
Electricity price forecasting through transfer function models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nogales, F.J.; Conejo, A.J.
2006-01-01
Forecasting electricity prices in present day competitive electricity markets is a must for both producers and consumers because both need price estimates to develop their respective market bidding strategies. This paper proposes a transfer function model to predict electricity prices based on both past electricity prices and demands, and discuss the rationale to build it. The importance of electricity demand information is assessed. Appropriate metrics to appraise prediction quality are identified and used. Realistic and extensive simulations based on data from the PJM Interconnection for year 2003 are conducted. The proposed model is compared with naive and other techniques. Journal of the Operational Research Society (2006) 57, 350-356.doi:10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601995; published online 18 May 2005. (author)
Tracking reliability for space cabin-borne equipment in development by Crow model.
Chen, J D; Jiao, S J; Sun, H L
2001-12-01
Objective. To study and track the reliability growth of manned spaceflight cabin-borne equipment in the course of its development. Method. A new technique of reliability growth estimation and prediction, which is composed of the Crow model and test data conversion (TDC) method was used. Result. The estimation and prediction value of the reliability growth conformed to its expectations. Conclusion. The method could dynamically estimate and predict the reliability of the equipment by making full use of various test information in the course of its development. It offered not only a possibility of tracking the equipment reliability growth, but also the reference for quality control in manned spaceflight cabin-borne equipment design and development process.
On electric vehicle battery charger modeling
Sainz Sapera, Luis; Mesas García, Juan José; Balcells Sendra, Josep
2011-01-01
The increase of electric vehicle (EV) battery chargers connected to electric networks could lead to future harmonic problems in power systems. These loads are nonlinear devices that inject harmonic currents and pollute network voltages. Thus, battery charger modeling must be studied in detail to determine their harmonic emissions and prevent future problems. This paper investigates EV battery charger behavior, analyzes its equivalent circuit and reports a model for each ...
EIA model documentation: Electricity market module - electricity fuel dispatch
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1997-01-01
This report documents the National Energy Modeling System Electricity Fuel Dispatch Submodule (EFD), a submodule of the Electricity Market Module (EMM) as it was used for EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 1997. It replaces previous documentation dated March 1994 and subsequent yearly update revisions. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components. This document serves four purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description of the model for reviewers and potential users of the EFD including energy experts at the Energy Information Administration (EIA), other Federal agencies, state energy agencies, private firms such as utilities and consulting firms, and non-profit groups such as consumer and environmental groups. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports. Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation which details model enhancements that were undertaken for AE097 and since the previous documentation. Last, because the major use of the EFD is to develop forecasts, this documentation explains the calculations, major inputs and assumptions which were used to generate the AE097
EIA model documentation: Electricity market module - electricity fuel dispatch
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
NONE
1997-01-01
This report documents the National Energy Modeling System Electricity Fuel Dispatch Submodule (EFD), a submodule of the Electricity Market Module (EMM) as it was used for EIA`s Annual Energy Outlook 1997. It replaces previous documentation dated March 1994 and subsequent yearly update revisions. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components. This document serves four purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description of the model for reviewers and potential users of the EFD including energy experts at the Energy Information Administration (EIA), other Federal agencies, state energy agencies, private firms such as utilities and consulting firms, and non-profit groups such as consumer and environmental groups. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports. Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation which details model enhancements that were undertaken for AE097 and since the previous documentation. Last, because the major use of the EFD is to develop forecasts, this documentation explains the calculations, major inputs and assumptions which were used to generate the AE097.
Johansson, Marlene; Abrahamsson, Jan
2014-01-01
Purpose: The purpose of this article is to investigate how business models are used by born global firms to act upon new business opportunities and how they manage business model innovation over time to prosper and grow. Design/Methodology: The study is based on three exploratory case studies of born global firms in mobile communication, financial services and digital music distribution. Findings: Three interrelated capabilities to manage business model innovation are articulated in...
Indonesia’s Electricity Demand Dynamic Modelling
Sulistio, J.; Wirabhuana, A.; Wiratama, M. G.
2017-06-01
Electricity Systems modelling is one of the emerging area in the Global Energy policy studies recently. System Dynamics approach and Computer Simulation has become one the common methods used in energy systems planning and evaluation in many conditions. On the other hand, Indonesia experiencing several major issues in Electricity system such as fossil fuel domination, demand - supply imbalances, distribution inefficiency, and bio-devastation. This paper aims to explain the development of System Dynamics modelling approaches and computer simulation techniques in representing and predicting electricity demand in Indonesia. In addition, this paper also described the typical characteristics and relationship of commercial business sector, industrial sector, and family / domestic sector as electricity subsystems in Indonesia. Moreover, it will be also present direct structure, behavioural, and statistical test as model validation approach and ended by conclusions.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Græsbøll, Kaare
that describes spread of disease using vectors or hosts as agents of the spread. The model is run with bluetongue as the primary case study, and it is demonstrated how an epidemic outbreak of bluetongue 8 in Denmark is sensitive to the use of pasture, climate, vaccination, vector abundance, and flying parameters......The main outcome of this PhD project is a generic model for non-contagious infectious vector-borne disease spread by one vector species between up to two species of hosts distributed on farms and pasture. The model features a within-herd model of disease, combined with a triple movement kernel....... In constructing a more process oriented agent-based approach to spread modeling new parameters describing vector behavior were introduced. When these vector flying parameters have been quantified by experiments, this model can be implemented on areas naïve to the modeled disease with a high predictive power...
A gravity model for the spread of a pollinator-borne plant pathogen.
Ferrari, Matthew J; Bjørnstad, Ottar N; Partain, Jessica L; Antonovics, Janis
2006-09-01
Many pathogens of plants are transmitted by arthropod vectors whose movement between individual hosts is influenced by foraging behavior. Insect foraging has been shown to depend on both the quality of hosts and the distances between hosts. Given the spatial distribution of host plants and individual variation in quality, vector foraging patterns may therefore produce predictable variation in exposure to pathogens. We develop a "gravity" model to describe the spatial spread of a vector-borne plant pathogen from underlying models of insect foraging in response to host quality using the pollinator-borne smut fungus Microbotryum violaceum as a case study. We fit the model to spatially explicit time series of M. violaceum transmission in replicate experimental plots of the white campion Silene latifolia. The gravity model provides a better fit than a mean field model or a model with only distance-dependent transmission. The results highlight the importance of active vector foraging in generating spatial patterns of disease incidence and for pathogen-mediated selection for floral traits.
Modelling the wind-borne spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus between farms.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Amos Ssematimba
Full Text Available A quantitative understanding of the spread of contaminated farm dust between locations is a prerequisite for obtaining much-needed insight into one of the possible mechanisms of disease spread between farms. Here, we develop a model to calculate the quantity of contaminated farm-dust particles deposited at various locations downwind of a source farm and apply the model to assess the possible contribution of the wind-borne route to the transmission of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza virus (HPAI during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands. The model is obtained from a Gaussian Plume Model by incorporating the dust deposition process, pathogen decay, and a model for the infection process on exposed farms. Using poultry- and avian influenza-specific parameter values we calculate the distance-dependent probability of between-farm transmission by this route. A comparison between the transmission risk pattern predicted by the model and the pattern observed during the 2003 epidemic reveals that the wind-borne route alone is insufficient to explain the observations although it could contribute substantially to the spread over short distance ranges, for example, explaining 24% of the transmission over distances up to 25 km.
Restructured electric power systems analysis of electricity markets with equilibrium models
2010-01-01
Electricity market deregulation is driving the power energy production from a monopolistic structure into a competitive market environment. The development of electricity markets has necessitated the need to analyze market behavior and power. Restructured Electric Power Systems reviews the latest developments in electricity market equilibrium models and discusses the application of such models in the practical analysis and assessment of electricity markets.
A survey of basic reproductive ratios in vector-borne disease transmission modeling
Soewono, E.; Aldila, D.
2015-03-01
Vector-borne diseases are commonly known in tropical and subtropical countries. These diseases have contributed to more than 10% of world infectious disease cases. Among the vectors responsible for transmitting the diseases are mosquitoes, ticks, fleas, flies, bugs and worms. Several of the diseases are known to contribute to the increasing threat to human health such as malaria, dengue, filariasis, chikungunya, west nile fever, yellow fever, encephalistis, and anthrax. It is necessary to understand the real process of infection, factors which contribute to the complication of the transmission in order to come up with a good and sound mathematical model. Although it is not easy to simulate the real transmission process of the infection, we could say that almost all models have been developed from the already long known Host-Vector model. It constitutes the main transmission processes i.e. birth, death, infection and recovery. From this simple model, the basic concepts of Disease Free and Endemic Equilibria and Basic Reproductive Ratio can be well explained and understood. Theoretical, modeling, control and treatment aspects of disease transmission problems have then been developed for various related diseases. General construction as well as specific forms of basic reproductive ratios for vector-borne diseases are discusses here.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Polat, Burak; Meincke, Peter
2004-01-01
A forward model for ground penetrating radar imaging of buried 3-D perfect electric conductors is addressed within the framework of diffraction tomography. The similarity of the present forward model derived within the physical optics approximation with that derived within the first Born...
Modelling soil borne fungal pathogens of arable crops under climate change.
Manici, L M; Bregaglio, S; Fumagalli, D; Donatelli, M
2014-12-01
Soil-borne fungal plant pathogens, agents of crown and root rot, are seldom considered in studies on climate change and agriculture due both to the complexity of the soil system and to the incomplete knowledge of their response to environmental drivers. A controlled chamber set of experiments was carried out to quantify the response of six soil-borne fungi to temperature, and a species-generic model to simulate their response was developed. The model was linked to a soil temperature model inclusive of components able to simulate soil water content also as resulting from crop water uptake. Pathogen relative growth was simulated over Europe using the IPCC A1B emission scenario derived from the Hadley-CM3 global climate model. Climate scenarios of soil temperature in 2020 and 2030 were compared to the baseline centred in the year 2000. The general trend of the response of soil-borne pathogens shows increasing growth in the coldest areas of Europe; however, a larger rate of increase is shown from 2020 to 2030 compared to that of 2000 to 2020. Projections of pathogens of winter cereals indicate a marked increase of growth rate in the soils of northern European and Baltic states. Fungal pathogens of spring sowing crops show unchanged conditions for their growth in soils of the Mediterranean countries, whereas an increase of suitable conditions was estimated for the areals of central Europe which represent the coldest limit areas where the host crops are currently grown. Differences across fungal species are shown, indicating that crop-specific analyses should be ran.
Alternative models for restructuring Ontario's electric sector
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bright, D.; Salaff, S.
1996-01-01
The future of Ontario Hydro and the provincial electrical sector was discussed. Various models proposed for restructuring Ontario's electric sector were described and views of some of the stake holders were presented, among them the views of AMPCO, MEA, the Ontario Chamber of Commerce, IPPSO, Ontario Hydro Management, Energy Probe and the Power Workers' Union. In general, most stake holders were in favour of privatization to some degree except for the Power Workers' Union which was unalterably opposed to privatization, claiming that it would lead to quantum increases in electricity rates. 2 figs
Modelling electricity forward markets by ambit fields
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Fred Espen Benth, Fred Espen; Veraart, Almut
This paper proposes a new modelling framework for electricity forward markets, which is based on ambit fields. The new model can capture many of the stylised facts observed in energy markets. One of the main differences to the traditional models lies in the fact that we do not model the dynamics......, but the forward price directly, where we focus on models which are stationary in time. We give a detailed account on the probabilistic properties of the new model and we discuss martingale conditions and change of measure within the new model class. Also, we derive a model for the spot price which is obtained...
Electricity spot price dynamics: Beyond financial models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Guthrie, Graeme; Videbeck, Steen
2007-01-01
We reveal properties of electricity spot prices that cannot be captured by the statistical models, commonly used to model financial asset prices, that are increasingly used to model electricity prices. Using more than eight years of half-hourly spot price data from the New Zealand Electricity Market, we find that the half-hourly trading periods fall naturally into five groups corresponding to the overnight off-peak, the morning peak, daytime off-peak, evening peak, and evening off-peak. The prices in different trading periods within each group are highly correlated with each other, yet the correlations between prices in different groups are lower. Models, adopted from the modeling of security prices, that are currently applied to electricity spot prices are incapable of capturing this behavior. We use a periodic autoregression to model prices instead, showing that shocks in the peak periods are larger and less persistent than those in off-peak periods, and that they often reappear in the following peak period. In contrast, shocks in the off-peak periods are smaller, more persistent, and die out (perhaps temporarily) during the peak periods. Current approaches to modeling spot prices cannot capture this behavior either. (author)
Electricity price modeling with stochastic time change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Borovkova, Svetlana; Schmeck, Maren Diane
2017-01-01
In this paper, we develop a novel approach to electricity price modeling, based on the powerful technique of stochastic time change. This technique allows us to incorporate the characteristic features of electricity prices (such as seasonal volatility, time varying mean reversion and seasonally occurring price spikes) into the model in an elegant and economically justifiable way. The stochastic time change introduces stochastic as well as deterministic (e.g., seasonal) features in the price process' volatility and in the jump component. We specify the base process as a mean reverting jump diffusion and the time change as an absolutely continuous stochastic process with seasonal component. The activity rate of the stochastic time change can be related to the factors that influence supply and demand. Here we use the temperature as a proxy for the demand and hence, as the driving factor of the stochastic time change, and show that this choice leads to realistic price paths. We derive properties of the resulting price process and develop the model calibration procedure. We calibrate the model to the historical EEX power prices and apply it to generating realistic price paths by Monte Carlo simulations. We show that the simulated price process matches the distributional characteristics of the observed electricity prices in periods of both high and low demand. - Highlights: • We develop a novel approach to electricity price modeling, based on the powerful technique of stochastic time change. • We incorporate the characteristic features of electricity prices, such as seasonal volatility and spikes into the model. • We use the temperature as a proxy for the demand and hence, as the driving factor of the stochastic time change • We derive properties of the resulting price process and develop the model calibration procedure. • We calibrate the model to the historical EEX power prices and apply it to generating realistic price paths.
Albaugh, Alex; Head-Gordon, Teresa; Niklasson, Anders M N
2018-02-13
Generalized extended Lagrangian Born-Oppenheimer molecular dynamics (XLBOMD) methods provide a framework for fast iteration-free simulations of models that normally require expensive electronic ground state optimizations prior to the force evaluations at every time step. XLBOMD uses dynamically driven auxiliary degrees of freedom that fluctuate about a variationally optimized ground state of an approximate "shadow" potential which approximates the true reference potential. While the requirements for such shadow potentials are well understood, constructing such potentials in practice has previously been ad hoc, and in this work, we present a systematic development of XLBOMD shadow potentials that match the reference potential to any order. We also introduce a framework for combining friction-like dissipation for the auxiliary degrees of freedom with general-order integration, a combination that was not previously possible. These developments are demonstrated with a simple fluctuating charge model and point induced dipole polarization models.
Predators indirectly control vector-borne disease: linking predator-prey and host-pathogen models.
Moore, Sean M; Borer, Elizabeth T; Hosseini, Parviez R
2010-01-06
Pathogens transmitted by arthropod vectors are common in human populations, agricultural systems and natural communities. Transmission of these vector-borne pathogens depends on the population dynamics of the vector species as well as its interactions with other species within the community. In particular, predation may be sufficient to control pathogen prevalence indirectly via the vector. To examine the indirect effect of predators on vectored-pathogen dynamics, we developed a theoretical model that integrates predator-prey and host-pathogen theory. We used this model to determine whether predation can prevent pathogen persistence or alter the stability of host-pathogen dynamics. We found that, in the absence of predation, pathogen prevalence in the host increases with vector fecundity, whereas predation on the vector causes pathogen prevalence to decline, or even become extinct, with increasing vector fecundity. We also found that predation on a vector may drastically slow the initial spread of a pathogen. The predator can increase host abundance indirectly by reducing or eliminating infection in the host population. These results highlight the importance of studying interactions that, within the greater community, may alter our predictions when studying disease dynamics. From an applied perspective, these results also suggest situations where an introduced predator or the natural enemies of a vector may slow the rate of spread of an emerging vector-borne pathogen.
R0-modeling as a tool for early warning and surveillance of exotic vector borne diseases in Denmark
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bødker, Rene
2011-01-01
for predicting permanent establishment of presently exotic diseases, mean temperatures may not predict the true potential for local spread and limited outbreaks resulting from accidental introductions in years with temporary periods of warm weather. DTU-Veterinary Institute is developing a system for continuous...... a truly risk based surveillance system for insect borne diseases. R0 models for many vector borne diseases are simple and the available estimates of model parameters like vector densities and survival rates may be uncertain. The quantitative value of R0 estimated from such models is therefore likely......Modeling the potential transmission intensity of insect borne diseases with climate driven R0 process models is frequently used to assess the potential for veterinary and human infections to become established in non endemic areas. Models are often based on mean temperatures of an arbitrary time...
Improved SPICE electrical model of silicon photomultipliers
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Marano, D., E-mail: davide.marano@oact.inaf.it [INAF, Osservatorio Astrofisico di Catania, Via S. Sofia 78, I-95123 Catania (Italy); Bonanno, G.; Belluso, M.; Billotta, S.; Grillo, A.; Garozzo, S.; Romeo, G. [INAF, Osservatorio Astrofisico di Catania, Via S. Sofia 78, I-95123 Catania (Italy); Catalano, O.; La Rosa, G.; Sottile, G.; Impiombato, D.; Giarrusso, S. [INAF, Istituto di Astrofisica Spaziale e Fisica Cosmica di Palermo, Via U. La Malfa 153, I-90146 Palermo (Italy)
2013-10-21
The present work introduces an improved SPICE equivalent electrical model of silicon photomultiplier (SiPM) detectors, in order to simulate and predict their transient response to avalanche triggering events. In particular, the developed circuit model provides a careful investigation of the magnitude and timing of the read-out signals and can therefore be exploited to perform reliable circuit-level simulations. The adopted modeling approach is strictly related to the physics of each basic microcell constituting the SiPM device, and allows the avalanche timing as well as the photodiode current and voltage to be accurately simulated. Predictive capabilities of the proposed model are demonstrated by means of experimental measurements on a real SiPM detector. Simulated and measured pulses are found to be in good agreement with the expected results. -- Highlights: • An improved SPICE electrical model of silicon photomultipliers is proposed. • The developed model provides a truthful representation of the physics of the device. • An accurate charge collection as a function of the overvoltage is achieved. • The adopted electrical model allows reliable circuit-level simulations to be performed. • Predictive capabilities of the adopted model are experimentally demonstrated.
Functional capabilities of the breadboard model of SIDRA satellite-borne instrument
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dudnik, O.V.; Kurbatov, E.V.; Titov, K.G.; Prieto, M.; Sanchez, S.; Sylwester, J.; Gburek, S.; Podgorski, P.
2013-01-01
This paper presents the structure, principles of operation and functional capabilities of the breadboard model of SIDRA compact satellite-borne instrument. SIDRA is intended for monitoring fluxes of high-energy charged particles under outer-space conditions. We present the reasons to develop a particle spectrometer and we list the main objectives to be achieved with the help of this instrument. The paper describes the major specifications of the analog and digital signal processing units of the breadboard model. A specially designed and developed data processing module based on the Actel ProAsic3E A3PE3000 FPGA is presented and compared with the all-in one digital processing signal board based on the Xilinx Spartan 3 XC3S1500 FPGA.
Modeling the spread of vector-borne diseases on bipartite networks.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Donal Bisanzio
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Vector-borne diseases for which transmission occurs exclusively between vectors and hosts can be modeled as spreading on a bipartite network. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In such models the spreading of the disease strongly depends on the degree distribution of the two classes of nodes. It is sufficient for one of the classes to have a scale-free degree distribution with a slow enough decay for the network to have asymptotically vanishing epidemic threshold. Data on the distribution of Ixodes ricinus ticks on mice and lizards from two independent studies are well described by a scale-free distribution compatible with an asymptotically vanishing epidemic threshold. The commonly used negative binomial, instead, cannot describe the right tail of the empirical distribution. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The extreme aggregation of vectors on hosts, described by the power-law decay of the degree distribution, makes the epidemic threshold decrease with the size of the network and vanish asymptotically.
R0-modeling as a tool for early warning and surveillance of exotic vector borne diseases in Denmark
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bødker, Rene; Kristensen, Birgit; Græsbøll, Kaare
2011-01-01
local spread of exotic insect borne diseases of veterinary and human importance. R0 models for various vector borne diseases are continuously updated with spatial temperature data to quantify the present risk of autochthonous cases (R0>0) and the present risk of epidemics (R0>1) in case an infected...... surveillance to these limited periods of potential risk, thus dramatically reducing the number of samples collected and analysed. The risk estimated from the R0 modelling may be combined with the risk of introduction from neighbouring countries and trading partners to generate a truly risk based surveillance......Modelling the potential transmission intensity of insect borne diseases with climate driven R0 process models is frequently used to assess the potential for veterinary and human infections to become established in non endemic areas. Models are often based on mean temperatures of an arbitrary time...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dipasquale Filippo
2009-06-01
Full Text Available Over the past 30 years, preterm births have drastically increased and today represent 12.5% of total births. About 1.2% of preterm births characterize very preterm births (GA<32weeks that, with very low birth weight (BW<1500grams, are constantly found as risk factors of unfavourable neurological outcomes in longitudinal follow up studies. Actually, also “late preterm” children (preterm born from 33 to 36 weeks of gestational age, normally considered at low risk for neurodevelopmental disabilities, are supposed to represent a population of children to be monitored. Previous findings of a general cognitive impairment in children born preterm have gradually addressed the assessment of more specific neuropsychological skills and pointed out the importance to follow these children up to adolescent age. The neuroanatomical prerequisite of an abnormality in frontal lobe development and the correlation with various neuropsychological dysfunctions (fine and gross motor disabilities, executive function and working memory deficits, visual-constructional and attentional dysfunctions underline the interference of preterm birth with normal brain maturational phases. Though showing more demanding neurodevelopmental pathways than term peers, a large number of preterm children tend to functionally normalize in adolescence. The review supports the hypothesis of a neurodevelopmental model that can be at risk to influence dysfunctional neuropsychological outcome.
A veracity preserving model for synthesizing scalable electricity load profiles
Huang, Yunyou; Zhan, Jianfeng; Luo, Chunjie; Wang, Lei; Wang, Nana; Zheng, Daoyi; Fan, Fanda; Ren, Rui
2018-01-01
Electricity users are the major players of the electric systems, and electricity consumption is growing at an extraordinary rate. The research on electricity consumption behaviors is becoming increasingly important to design and deployment of the electric systems. Unfortunately, electricity load profiles are difficult to acquire. Data synthesis is one of the best approaches to solving the lack of data, and the key is the model that preserves the real electricity consumption behaviors. In this...
MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF AC ELECTRIC POINT MOTOR
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S. YU. Buryak
2014-03-01
Full Text Available Purpose. In order to ensure reliability, security, and the most important the continuity of the transportation process, it is necessary to develop, implement, and then improve the automated methods of diagnostic mechanisms, devices and rail transport systems. Only systems that operate in real time mode and transmit data on the instantaneous state of the control objects can timely detect any faults and thus provide additional time for their correction by railway employees. Turnouts are one of the most important and responsible components, and therefore require the development and implementation of such diagnostics system.Methodology. Achieving the goal of monitoring and control of railway automation objects in real time is possible only with the use of an automated process of the objects state diagnosing. For this we need to know the diagnostic features of a control object, which determine its state at any given time. The most rational way of remote diagnostics is the shape and current spectrum analysis that flows in the power circuits of railway automatics. Turnouts include electric motors, which are powered by electric circuits, and the shape of the current curve depends on both the condition of the electric motor, and the conditions of the turnout maintenance. Findings. For the research and analysis of AC electric point motor it was developed its mathematical model. The calculation of parameters and interdependencies between the main factors affecting the operation of the asynchronous machine was conducted. The results of the model operation in the form of time dependences of the waveform curves of current on the load on engine shaft were obtained. Originality. During simulation the model of AC electric point motor, which satisfies the conditions of adequacy was built. Practical value. On the basis of the constructed model we can study the AC motor in various mode of operation, record and analyze current curve, as a response to various changes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Stensgaard, Anna-Sofie; Jørgensen, Aslak; Kabatereine, N B
2006-01-01
-borne disease transmission areas. Furthermore, knowledge of abiotic factors affecting intra-molluscan parasitic development can be used to make "masks" based on remotely sensed climatic data, and these can in turn be used to refine these predictions. We used data from a recent freshwater snail survey from......Geographic information system (GIS-based modeling of an intermediate host snail species environmental requirements using known occurrence records can provide estimates of its spatial distribution. When other data are lacking, this can be used as a rough spatial prediction of potential snail...... Uganda, environmental data and the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction (GARP) to map the potential distribution of snail species known to act as intermediate hosts of several human and animal parasites. The results suggest that large areas of Uganda are suitable habitats for many of these snail...
Born term for high-energy meson-hadron collisions from QCD and chiral quark model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ochs, W.; Shimada, T.
1988-01-01
Various experimental observations reveal a sizeable hard component in the high-energy 'soft' hadronic collisions. For primary meson beams we propose a QCD Born term which describes the dissociation of the primary meson into a quark-antiquark pair in the gluon field of the target. A pointlike effective pion-quark coupling is assumed as in the chiral quark model by Manohar and Georgi. We derive the total cross sections which for pion beams, for example, are given in terms of f π -2 and some properties of the hadronic final states. In particular, we stress the importance of studying three-jet events in meson-nucleon scattering and discuss the seagull effect. (orig.)
Towards a resource-based habitat approach for spatial modelling of vector-borne disease risks.
Hartemink, Nienke; Vanwambeke, Sophie O; Purse, Bethan V; Gilbert, Marius; Van Dyck, Hans
2015-11-01
Given the veterinary and public health impact of vector-borne diseases, there is a clear need to assess the suitability of landscapes for the emergence and spread of these diseases. Current approaches for predicting disease risks neglect key features of the landscape as components of the functional habitat of vectors or hosts, and hence of the pathogen. Empirical-statistical methods do not explicitly incorporate biological mechanisms, whereas current mechanistic models are rarely spatially explicit; both methods ignore the way animals use the landscape (i.e. movement ecology). We argue that applying a functional concept for habitat, i.e. the resource-based habitat concept (RBHC), can solve these issues. The RBHC offers a framework to identify systematically the different ecological resources that are necessary for the completion of the transmission cycle and to relate these resources to (combinations of) landscape features and other environmental factors. The potential of the RBHC as a framework for identifying suitable habitats for vector-borne pathogens is explored and illustrated with the case of bluetongue virus, a midge-transmitted virus affecting ruminants. The concept facilitates the study of functional habitats of the interacting species (vectors as well as hosts) and provides new insight into spatial and temporal variation in transmission opportunities and exposure that ultimately determine disease risks. It may help to identify knowledge gaps and control options arising from changes in the spatial configuration of key resources across the landscape. The RBHC framework may act as a bridge between existing mechanistic and statistical modelling approaches. © 2014 The Authors. Biological Reviews published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Cambridge Philosophical Society.
Modeling Main Body of Overcrossing Bridge Based on Vehicle-Borne Laser Scanning Data
Chen, X.; Chen, M.; Wei, Z.; Zhong, R.
2017-09-01
Vehicle-borne laser scanning (VBLS) is widely used to collect urban data for various mapping and modelling systems. This paper proposes a strategy of feature extraction and 3d model reconstruction for main body of overcrossing bridges based on VBLS point clouds. As the bridges usually have a large span, and the clouds data is often affected by obstacles, we have to use round-trip cloud data to avoid missing part. To begin with, pick out the cloud of the bridge body by an interactive clip-box, and group points by scan-line, then sort the points by scanning angle on each scan line. Since the position under the vehicle have a fixed scan-angle, a virtual path can be obtained. Secondly, extract horizontal line segments perpendicular to the virtual path along adjacent scan-lines, and then cluster line segments into long line-strings, which represent the top and bottom edge. Finally, regularize the line-strings and build 3d surface model of the bridge body. Experimental studies have demonstrated its efficiency and accuracy in case of building bridge model. Modelling the stairs at the both end of the bridge will be the direction of the next step.
MODELING MAIN BODY OF OVERCROSSING BRIDGE BASED ON VEHICLE-BORNE LASER SCANNING DATA
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
X. Chen
2017-09-01
Full Text Available Vehicle-borne laser scanning (VBLS is widely used to collect urban data for various mapping and modelling systems. This paper proposes a strategy of feature extraction and 3d model reconstruction for main body of overcrossing bridges based on VBLS point clouds. As the bridges usually have a large span, and the clouds data is often affected by obstacles, we have to use round-trip cloud data to avoid missing part. To begin with, pick out the cloud of the bridge body by an interactive clip-box, and group points by scan-line, then sort the points by scanning angle on each scan line. Since the position under the vehicle have a fixed scan-angle, a virtual path can be obtained. Secondly, extract horizontal line segments perpendicular to the virtual path along adjacent scan-lines, and then cluster line segments into long line-strings, which represent the top and bottom edge. Finally, regularize the line-strings and build 3d surface model of the bridge body. Experimental studies have demonstrated its efficiency and accuracy in case of building bridge model. Modelling the stairs at the both end of the bridge will be the direction of the next step.
Stochastic modeling of financial electricity contracts
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Benth, Fred Espen; Koekebakker, Steen
2008-01-01
We discuss the modeling of electricity contracts traded in many deregulated power markets. These forward/futures type contracts deliver (either physically or financially) electricity over a specified time period, and is frequently referred to as swaps since they in effect represent an exchange of fixed for floating electricity price. We propose to use the Heath-Jarrow-Morton approach to model swap prices since the notion of a spot price is not easily defined in these markets. For general stochastic dynamical models, we connect the spot price, the instantaneous-delivery forward price and the swap price, and analyze two different ways to apply the Heath-Jarrow-Morton approach to swap pricing: Either one specifies a dynamics for the non-existing instantaneous-delivery forwards and derives the implied swap dynamics, or one models directly on the swaps. The former is shown to lead to quite complicated stochastic models for the swap price, even when the forward dynamics is simple. The latter has some theoretical problems due to a no-arbitrage condition that has to be satisfied for swaps with overlapping delivery periods. To overcome this problem, a practical modeling approach is analyzed. The market is supposed only to consist of non-overlapping swaps, and these are modelled directly. A thorough empirical study is performed using data collected from Nord Pool. Our investigations demonstrate that it is possible to state reasonable models for the swap price dynamics which is analytically tractable for risk management and option pricing purposes, however, this is an area of further research. (author)
The effects of electric forces on dust lifting: Preliminary studies with a numerical model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kok, J F; Renno, N O
2008-01-01
Atmospheric dust aerosols affect the Earth's climate by scattering and absorbing radiation and by modifying cloud properties. Recent experiments have indicated that electric fields produced in dusty phenomena such as dust storms and dust devils could enhance the emission of dust aerosols. However, the generation of electric fields in dusty phenomena is poorly understood. To address this problem, we present results from the first physically-based numerical model of electric fields in dust lifting. Our model calculates the motion and collisions of air-borne particles, as well as the charge transfer during these collisions. This allows us to simulate the formation of electric fields as a function of physical parameters, such as wind stress and soil properties. Preliminary model results show that electric fields can indeed enhance the lifting of soil particles. Moreover, they suggest that strong electric fields could trigger a positive feedback because increases in the concentration of charged particles strengthen the original electric field, which in turn lifts additional surface particles. We plan to further test and calibrate our model with experimental data.
Effective business models for electric vehicles
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gavrilescu Ileana
2017-07-01
Full Text Available The proposed study aims to use asyncretic and synthetic approach of two elements that have an intrinsic efficiency value: business models and electric vehicles. Our approach seeks to circumscribe more widespread concerns globally - on the one hand, to oil shortages and climate change - and on the other hand, economic efficiency to business models customized to new types of mobility. New “electric” cars projects besiege the traditional position of the conventional car. In the current economy context the concept of efficiency of business models is quite different from what it meant in a traditional sense, particularly because of new technological fields. The arguments put forward by us will be both factual and emotional. Therefore, we rely on interviews and questionnaires designed to fit significantly to the point of the study. Research in the field of new propulsion systems for vehicles has been exploring various possibilities lately, such as: electricity, hydrogen, compressed air, biogas, etc. Theoretically or in principle, it is possible for tomorrow’s vehicles to be driven by the widest variety if resources. A primary goal of our study would be to theoretically reconsider some of the contemporary entrepreneurship coordinates and secondly to provide minimum guidance for decision-making of businesses that will operate in the field of electric mobility. To achieve this, we shall specifically analyze an electric mobility system but in parallel we will address business models that lend themselves effectively on aspects of this field. With a methodology based on questionnaires that had to overcome the conventional mechanism using some of the most unusual ingredients, we hope that the results of our research will successfully constitute a contribution to the goals and especially as a means of managerial orientation for entrepreneurs in the Romanian market.
Towards a Hybrid Agent-based Model for Mosquito Borne Disease.
Mniszewski, S M; Manore, C A; Bryan, C; Del Valle, S Y; Roberts, D
2014-07-01
Agent-based models (ABM) are used to simulate the spread of infectious disease through a population. Detailed human movement, demography, realistic business location networks, and in-host disease progression are available in existing ABMs, such as the Epidemic Simulation System (EpiSimS). These capabilities make possible the exploration of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical mitigation strategies used to inform the public health community. There is a similar need for the spread of mosquito borne pathogens due to the re-emergence of diseases such as chikungunya and dengue fever. A network-patch model for mosquito dynamics has been coupled with EpiSimS. Mosquitoes are represented as a "patch" or "cloud" associated with a location. Each patch has an ordinary differential equation (ODE) mosquito dynamics model and mosquito related parameters relevant to the location characteristics. Activities at each location can have different levels of potential exposure to mosquitoes based on whether they are inside, outside, or somewhere in-between. As a proof of concept, the hybrid network-patch model is used to simulate the spread of chikungunya through Washington, DC. Results are shown for a base case, followed by varying the probability of transmission, mosquito count, and activity exposure. We use visualization to understand the pattern of disease spread.
Electromagnetic modelling of a space-borne far-infrared interferometer
Donohoe, Anthony; O'Sullivan, Créidhe; Murphy, J. Anthony; Bracken, Colm; Savini, Giorgio; Pascale, Enzo; Ade, Peter; Sudiwala, Rashmi; Hornsby, Amber
2016-02-01
In this paper I will describe work done as part of an EU-funded project `Far-infrared space interferometer critical assessment' (FISICA). The aim of the project is to investigate science objectives and technology development required for the next generation THz space interferometer. The THz/FIR is precisely the spectral region where most of the energy from stars, exo-planetary systems and galaxy clusters deep in space is emitted. The atmosphere is almost completely opaque in the wave-band of interest so any observation that requires high quality data must be performed with a space-born instrument. A space-borne far infrared interferometer will be able to answer a variety of crucial astrophysical questions such as how do planets and stars form, what is the energy engine of most galaxies and how common are the molecule building blocks of life. The FISICA team have proposed a novel instrument based on a double Fourier interferometer that is designed to resolve the light from an extended scene, spectrally and spatially. A laboratory prototype spectral-spatial interferometer has been constructed to demonstrate the feasibility of the double-Fourier technique at far infrared wavelengths (0.15 - 1 THz). This demonstrator is being used to investigate and validate important design features and data-processing methods for future instruments. Using electromagnetic modelling techniques several issues related to its operation at long baselines and wavelengths, such as diffraction, have been investigated. These are critical to the design of the concept instrument and the laboratory testbed.
A molecular Debye-Hückel theory of solvation in polar fluids: An extension of the Born model
Xiao, Tiejun; Song, Xueyu
2017-12-01
A dielectric response theory of solvation beyond the conventional Born model for polar fluids is presented. The dielectric response of a polar fluid is described by a Born response mode and a linear combination of Debye-Hückel-like response modes that capture the nonlocal response of polar fluids. The Born mode is characterized by a bulk dielectric constant, while a Debye-Hückel mode is characterized by its corresponding Debye screening length. Both the bulk dielectric constant and the Debye screening lengths are determined from the bulk dielectric function of the polar fluid. The linear combination coefficients of the response modes are evaluated in a self-consistent way and can be used to evaluate the electrostatic contribution to the thermodynamic properties of a polar fluid. Our theory is applied to a dipolar hard sphere fluid as well as interaction site models of polar fluids such as water, where the electrostatic contribution to their thermodynamic properties can be obtained accurately.
Lorenz, Alyson; Dhingra, Radhika; Chang, Howard H; Bisanzio, Donal; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V
2014-01-01
Extrapolating landscape regression models for use in assessing vector-borne disease risk and other applications requires thoughtful evaluation of fundamental model choice issues. To examine implications of such choices, an analysis was conducted to explore the extent to which disparate landscape models agree in their epidemiological and entomological risk predictions when extrapolated to new regions. Agreement between six literature-drawn landscape models was examined by comparing predicted county-level distributions of either Lyme disease or Ixodes scapularis vector using Spearman ranked correlation. AUC analyses and multinomial logistic regression were used to assess the ability of these extrapolated landscape models to predict observed national data. Three models based on measures of vegetation, habitat patch characteristics, and herbaceous landcover emerged as effective predictors of observed disease and vector distribution. An ensemble model containing these three models improved precision and predictive ability over individual models. A priori assessment of qualitative model characteristics effectively identified models that subsequently emerged as better predictors in quantitative analysis. Both a methodology for quantitative model comparison and a checklist for qualitative assessment of candidate models for extrapolation are provided; both tools aim to improve collaboration between those producing models and those interested in applying them to new areas and research questions.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alyson Lorenz
Full Text Available Extrapolating landscape regression models for use in assessing vector-borne disease risk and other applications requires thoughtful evaluation of fundamental model choice issues. To examine implications of such choices, an analysis was conducted to explore the extent to which disparate landscape models agree in their epidemiological and entomological risk predictions when extrapolated to new regions. Agreement between six literature-drawn landscape models was examined by comparing predicted county-level distributions of either Lyme disease or Ixodes scapularis vector using Spearman ranked correlation. AUC analyses and multinomial logistic regression were used to assess the ability of these extrapolated landscape models to predict observed national data. Three models based on measures of vegetation, habitat patch characteristics, and herbaceous landcover emerged as effective predictors of observed disease and vector distribution. An ensemble model containing these three models improved precision and predictive ability over individual models. A priori assessment of qualitative model characteristics effectively identified models that subsequently emerged as better predictors in quantitative analysis. Both a methodology for quantitative model comparison and a checklist for qualitative assessment of candidate models for extrapolation are provided; both tools aim to improve collaboration between those producing models and those interested in applying them to new areas and research questions.
Electrical model of cold atmospheric plasma gun
Slutsker, Ya. Z.; Semenov, V. E.; Krasik, Ya. E.; Ryzhkov, M. A.; Felsteiner, J.; Binenbaum, Y.; Gil, Z.; Shtrichman, R.; Cohen, J. T.
2017-10-01
We present an analytical model of cold atmospheric plasma formed by a dielectric barrier discharge (DBD), which is based on the lumped and distributed elements of an equivalent electric circuit of this plasma. This model is applicable for a wide range of frequencies and amplitudes of the applied voltage pulses, no matter whether or not the generated plasma plume interacts with a target. The model allows quantitative estimation of the plasma plume length and the energy delivered to the plasma. Also, the results of this model can be used for the design of DBD guns which efficiently generate cold atmospheric plasma. A comparison of the results of the model with those obtained in experiments shows a fairly good agreement.
Modeling electrical dispersion phenomena in Earth materials
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
D. Patella
2008-06-01
Full Text Available It is illustrated that IP phenomena in rocks can be described using conductivity dispersion models deduced as solutions to a 2nd-order linear differential equation describing the motion of a charged particle immersed in an external electrical field. Five dispersion laws are discussed, namely: the non-resonant positive IP model, which leads to the classical Debye-type dispersion law and by extension to the Cole-Cole model, largely used in current practice; the non-resonant negative IP model, which allows negative chargeability values, known in metals at high frequencies, to be explained as an intrinsic physical property of earth materials in specific field cases; the resonant flat, positive or negative IP models, which can explain the presence of peak effects at specific frequencies superimposed on flat, positive or negative dispersion spectra.
Modeling an electric motor in 1-D
Butler, Thomas G.
1991-01-01
Quite often the dynamicist will be faced with having an electric drive motor as a link in the elastic path of a structure such that the motor's characteristics must be taken into account to properly represent the dynamics of the primary structure. He does not want to model it so accurately that he could get detailed stress and displacements in the motor proper, but just sufficiently to represent its inertia loading and elastic behavior from its mounting bolts to its drive coupling. Described here is how the rotor and stator of such a motor can be adequately modeled as a colinear pair of beams.
Modeling and Analyzing Electric Vehicle Charging
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Ove; Krogh, Benjamin Bjerre; Thomsen, Christian
2016-01-01
, such as wind turbines. To both enable a smart grid and the use of renewable energy, it is essential to know when and where an EV is plugged into the power grid and what battery capacity is available. In this paper, we present a generic spatio-temporal data-warehouse model for storing detailed information...... on all aspects of charging EVs, including integration with the electricity prices from a spot market. The proposed data warehouse is fully implemented and currently contains 2.5 years of charging data from 176 EVs. We describe the date warehouse model and the implementation including complex operations...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kuznetsov, Alexander M.; Medvedev, Igor G.
2006-01-01
Effects of deviation from the Born-Oppenheimer approximation (BOA) on the non-adiabatic transition probability for the transfer of a quantum particle in condensed media are studied within an exactly solvable model. The particle and the medium are modeled by a set of harmonic oscillators. The dynamic interaction of the particle with a single local mode is treated explicitly without the use of BOA. Two particular situations (symmetric and non-symmetric systems) are considered. It is shown that the difference between the exact solution and the true BOA is negligibly small at realistic parameters of the model. However, the exact results differ considerably from those of the crude Condon approximation (CCA) which is usually considered in the literature as a reference point for BOA (Marcus-Hush-Dogonadze formula). It is shown that the exact rate constant can be smaller (symmetric system) or larger (non-symmetric one) than that obtained in CCA. The non-Condon effects are also studied
Modelling and forecasting Turkish residential electricity demand
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dilaver, Zafer; Hunt, Lester C
2011-01-01
This research investigates the relationship between Turkish residential electricity consumption, household total final consumption expenditure and residential electricity prices by applying the structural time series model to annual data over the period from 1960 to 2008. Household total final consumption expenditure, real energy prices and an underlying energy demand trend are found to be important drivers of Turkish residential electricity demand with the estimated short run and the long run total final consumption expenditure elasticities being 0.38 and 1.57, respectively, and the estimated short run and long run price elasticities being -0.09 and -0.38, respectively. Moreover, the estimated underlying energy demand trend, (which, as far as is known, has not been investigated before for the Turkish residential sector) should be of some benefit to Turkish decision makers in terms of energy planning. It provides information about the impact of past policies, the influence of technical progress, the impacts of changes in consumer behaviour and the effects of changes in economic structure. Furthermore, based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish residential electricity demand will be somewhere between 48 and 80 TWh by 2020 compared to 40 TWh in 2008. - Research highlights: → Estimated short run and long run expenditure elasticities of 0.38 and 1.57, respectively. → Estimated short run and long run price elasticities of -0.09 and -0.38, respectively. → Estimated UEDT has increasing (i.e. energy using) and decreasing (i.e. energy saving) periods. → Predicted Turkish residential electricity demand between 48 and 80 TWh in 2020.
Electrical and thermal modeling of railguns
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kerrisk, J.F.
1984-01-01
Electrical and thermal modeling of railguns at Los Alamos has been done for two purposes: (1) to obtain detailed information about the behavior of specific railgun components such as the rails, and (2) to predict overall performance of railgun tests. Detailed electrical and thermal modeling has concentrated on calculations of the inductance and surface current distribution of long parallel conductors in the high-frequency limit and on calculations of current and thermal diffusion in rails. Inductance calculations for various rail cross sections and for magnetic flux compression generators (MFCG) have been done. Inductance and current distribution results were compared with experimental measurements. Twodimensional calculations of current and thermal diffusion in rail cross sections have been done; predictions of rail heating and melting as a function of rail size and total current have been made. An overall performance model of a railgun and power supply has been developed and used to design tests at Los Alamos. The lumped-parameter circuit model uses results from the detailed inductance and current diffusion calculations along with other circuit component models to predict rail current and projectile acceleration, velocity, and position as a function of time
Empirical high-latitude electric field models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Heppner, J.P.; Maynard, N.C.
1987-01-01
Electric field measurements from the Dynamics Explorer 2 satellite have been analyzed to extend the empirical models previously developed from dawn-dusk OGO 6 measurements (J.P. Heppner, 1977). The analysis embraces large quantities of data from polar crossings entering and exiting the high latitudes in all magnetic local time zones. Paralleling the previous analysis, the modeling is based on the distinctly different polar cap and dayside convective patterns that occur as a function of the sign of the Y component of the interplanetary magnetic field. The objective, which is to represent the typical distributions of convective electric fields with a minimum number of characteristic patterns, is met by deriving one pattern (model BC) for the northern hemisphere with a +Y interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and southern hemisphere with a -Y IMF and two patterns (models A and DE) for the northern hemisphere with a -Y IMF and southern hemisphere with a +Y IMF. The most significant large-scale revisions of the OGO 6 models are (1) on the dayside where the latitudinal overlap of morning and evening convection cells reverses with the sign of the IMF Y component, (2) on the nightside where a westward flow region poleward from the Harang discontinuity appears under model BC conditions, and (3) magnetic local time shifts in the positions of the convection cell foci. The modeling above was followed by a detailed examination of cases where the IMF Z component was clearly positive (northward). Neglecting the seasonally dependent cases where irregularities obscure pattern recognition, the observations range from reasonable agreement with the new BC and DE models, to cases where different characteristics appeared primarily at dayside high latitudes
Fraser, Annemarie; Chan Miller, Christopher; Palmer, Paul I.; Deutscher, Nicholas M.; Jones, Nicholas B.; Griffith, David W. T.
2011-10-01
We investigate the Australian methane budget from 2005-2008 using the GEOS-Chem 3D chemistry transport model, focusing on the relative contribution of emissions from different sectors and the influence of long-range transport. To evaluate the model, we use in situ surface measurements of methane, methane dry air column average (XCH4) from ground-based Fourier transform spectrometers (FTSs), and train-borne surface concentration measurements from an in situ FTS along the north-south continental transect. We use gravity anomaly data from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment to describe the spatial and temporal distribution of wetland emissions and scale it to a prior emission estimate, which better describes observed atmospheric methane variability at tropical latitudes. The clean air sites of Cape Ferguson and Cape Grim are the least affected by local emissions, while Wollongong, located in the populated southeast with regional coal mining, samples the most locally polluted air masses (2.5% of the total air mass versus Asia, accounting for ˜25% of the change in surface concentration above background. At Cape Ferguson and Cape Grim, emissions from ruminant animals are the largest source of methane above background, at approximately 20% and 30%, respectively, of the surface concentration. At Wollongong, emissions from coal mining are the largest source above background representing 60% of the surface concentration. The train data provide an effective way of observing transitions between urban, desert, and tropical landscapes.
Fairlie, T. D.; Vernier, J.-P.; Natarajan, M.; Deshler, Terry; Liu, H.; Wegner, T.; Baker, N.; Gadhavi, H.; Jayaraman, A.; Pandit, A.;
2016-01-01
Satellite observations and numerical modeling studies have demonstrated that the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) can provide a conduit for gas-phase pollutants in south Asia to reach the lower stratosphere. Now, observations from the CALIPSO satellite have revealed the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL), a summertime accumulation of aerosols associated with ASM anticyclone, in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). The ATAL has potential implications for regional cloud properties, climate, and chemical processes in the UTLS. Here, we show in situ measurements from balloon-borne instrumentation, aircraft and satellite observations, combined with trajectory and chemical transport model (CTM) simulations to explore the origin, composition, physical and optical properties of aerosols in the ATAL. In particular, we show balloon-based observations from our BATAL-2015 field campaign to India and Saudi Arabia in summer 2015, including in situ backscatter measurements from COBALD instruments, and some of the first observations of size and volatility of aerosols in the ATAL layer using optical particle counters (OPCs). Back trajectory calculations initialized from CALIPSO observations point to deep convection over North India as a principal source of ATAL aerosols. Available aircraft observations suggest significant sulfur and carbonaceous contributions to the ATAL, which is supported by simulations using the GEOS-Chem CTM. Source elimination studies conducted with the GEOS-Chem indicate that 80-90% of ATAL aerosols originate from south Asian sources, in contrast with some earlier studies.
Electricity consumption modelling: a case of Germany
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Do, L. P. C.; Lin, Kuan-Heng; Molnár, P.
2016-01-01
Roč. 55, June (2016), s. 92-101 ISSN 0264-9993 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : electricity demand * electricity consumption * electricity load Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.481, year: 2016
Electric market models, competitive model and alternative design
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Arnedillo, O.
2007-01-01
Almost ten years after the liberalization of the Spanish electric system, its market design has remained basically unchanged. Therefore, it is reasonable to consider whether the current model continues to be adequate or whether it should be changed. However, although the current model is far from the absolute optimum, it is suited to the current state of the Spanish system. Only some improvements, such as the reform of the capacity guarantee payment can be undertaken immediately. It will only be possible to undertake other improvements as distribution companies cover all of their electricity needs in forward contracts acquired through a competitive process. (Author)
Modeling Sub-500MHz Space-Borne Radar Signal Propagation in Complex Media
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Space-borne radar platforms are becoming increasingly prevalent in current and planned missions by NASA and partner organizations (e.g. the European Space Agency...
Airey, Martin; Harrison, Giles; Nicoll, Keri; Williams, Paul; Marlton, Graeme
2017-04-01
Release of volcanic ash into the atmosphere poses a significant hazard to air traffic. Exposure to appreciable concentrations (≥4 mg m-3) of ash can result in engine shutdown, air data system loss, and airframe damage, with sustained lower concentrations potentially causing other long-term detrimental effects [1]. Disruption to flights also has a societal impact. For example, the closure of European airspace following the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull resulted in global airline industry losses of order £1100 million daily and disruption to 10 million passengers. Accurate and effective measurement of the mass of ash in a volcanic plume along with in situ characterisation of other plume properties such as charge, turbulence, and SO2 concentration can be used in combination with plume dispersion modelling, remote sensing, and more sophisticated flight ban thresholds to mitigate the impact of future events. VolcLab is a disposable instrument package that may be attached to a standard commercial radiosonde, for rapid emergency deployment on a weather balloon platform. The payload includes a newly developed gravimetric sensor using the oscillating microbalance principle to measure mass directly without assumptions about particles' optical properties. The package also includes an SO2 gas detector, an optical sensor to detect ash and cloud backscatter from an LED source [2], a charge sensor to characterise electrical properties of the plume [3], and an accelerometer to measure in-plume turbulence [4]. VolcLab uses the established PANDORA interface [5], to provide data exchange and power from the radiosonde. In addition to the VolcLab measurements, the radiosonde provides standard meteorological data of temperature, pressure, and relative humidity, and GPS location. There are several benefits of using this instrument suite in this design and of using this method of deployment. Firstly, this is an all-in-one device requiring minimal expertise on the part of the end
Car-borne multichannel gamma-ray spectrometric system model CZD-6
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lu Shili; Zhai Yugui; Ma Yanfang; Jiao Cangwen; Zhang Biao
1998-01-01
The car-borne multichannel gamma-ray spectrometric system Mode CZD-6 is composed of a HDY-256 of portable multichannel gamma-ray spectrometer developed by the Beijing Research Institute of Uranium Geology and a large volume scintillation detector. the position for each measurement point is determined by the GPS instrument. Its latitude and longitude, as well as measured 256 channels of γ-spectrometric data are collected by a notebook computer, which can show the 256 channels of spectra for each point during measuring processes. The complete system can be loaded in a field car. This system has been used to environmental radioactive monitoring after calibration by airborne radiometric models in Shijiazhuang, Hebei province. A lot of data confirm that the system works stably and reliably, and is a fast and advanced approach for environmental γ-spectrometric monitoring. It can be used not only to determination of contents of natural radioactive elements in environments, but also to monitoring nuclear pollution and emergency treatment in nuclear accidents significantly
Shin, Hosung; Lee, Suehyung; Kim, Jong Soo; Kim, Jinsuk; Han, Kyu Hong
2010-07-01
This study estimated the annual socioeconomic costs of food-borne disease in 2008 from a societal perspective and using a cost-of-illness method. Our model employed a comprehensive set of diagnostic disease codes to define food-borne diseases with using the Korea National Health Insurance (KNHI) reimbursement data. This study classified the food borne illness as three types of symptoms according to the severity of the illness: mild, moderate, severe. In addition to the traditional method of assessing the cost-of-illness, the study included measures to account for the lost quality of life. We estimated the cost of the lost quality of life using quality-adjusted life years and a visual analog scale. The direct cost included medical and medication costs, and the non-medical costs included transportation costs, caregiver's cost and administration costs. The lost productivity costs included lost workdays due to illness and lost earnings due to premature death. The study found the estimated annual socioeconomic costs of food-borne disease in 2008 were 954.9 billion won (735.3 billion won-996.9 billion won). The medical cost was 73.4 - 76.8% of the cost, the lost productivity cost was 22.6% and the cost of the lost quality of life was 26.0%. Most of the cost-of-illness studies are known to have underestimated the actual socioeconomic costs of the subjects, and these studies excluded many important social costs, such as the value of pain, suffering and functional disability. The study addressed the uncertainty related to estimating the socioeconomic costs of food-borne disease as well as the updated cost estimates. Our estimates could contribute to develop and evaluate policies for food-borne disease.
Explicit ions/implicit water generalized Born model for nucleic acids
Tolokh, Igor S.; Thomas, Dennis G.; Onufriev, Alexey V.
2018-05-01
The ion atmosphere around highly charged nucleic acid molecules plays a significant role in their dynamics, structure, and interactions. Here we utilized the implicit solvent framework to develop a model for the explicit treatment of ions interacting with nucleic acid molecules. The proposed explicit ions/implicit water model is based on a significantly modified generalized Born (GB) model and utilizes a non-standard approach to define the solute/solvent dielectric boundary. Specifically, the model includes modifications to the GB interaction terms for the case of multiple interacting solutes—disconnected dielectric boundary around the solute-ion or ion-ion pairs. A fully analytical description of all energy components for charge-charge interactions is provided. The effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated by calculating the potential of mean force for Na+-Cl- ion pair and by carrying out a set of Monte Carlo (MC) simulations of mono- and trivalent ions interacting with DNA and RNA duplexes. The monovalent (Na+) and trivalent (CoHex3+) counterion distributions predicted by the model are in close quantitative agreement with all-atom explicit water molecular dynamics simulations used as reference. Expressed in the units of energy, the maximum deviations of local ion concentrations from the reference are within kBT. The proposed explicit ions/implicit water GB model is able to resolve subtle features and differences of CoHex distributions around DNA and RNA duplexes. These features include preferential CoHex binding inside the major groove of the RNA duplex, in contrast to CoHex biding at the "external" surface of the sugar-phosphate backbone of the DNA duplex; these differences in the counterion binding patters were earlier shown to be responsible for the observed drastic differences in condensation propensities between short DNA and RNA duplexes. MC simulations of CoHex ions interacting with the homopolymeric poly(dA.dT) DNA duplex with modified (de
Medium-term electric power demand forecasting based on economic-electricity transmission model
Li, Wenfeng; Bao, Fangmin; Bai, Hongkun; Liu, Wei; Liu, Yongmin; Mao, Yubin; Wang, Jiangbo; Liu, Junhui
2018-06-01
Electric demand forecasting is a basic work to ensure the safe operation of power system. Based on the theories of experimental economics and econometrics, this paper introduces Prognoz Platform 7.2 intelligent adaptive modeling platform, and constructs the economic electricity transmission model that considers the economic development scenarios and the dynamic adjustment of industrial structure to predict the region's annual electricity demand, and the accurate prediction of the whole society's electricity consumption is realized. Firstly, based on the theories of experimental economics and econometrics, this dissertation attempts to find the economic indicator variables that drive the most economical growth of electricity consumption and availability, and build an annual regional macroeconomic forecast model that takes into account the dynamic adjustment of industrial structure. Secondly, it innovatively put forward the economic electricity directed conduction theory and constructed the economic power transfer function to realize the group forecast of the primary industry + rural residents living electricity consumption, urban residents living electricity, the second industry electricity consumption, the tertiary industry electricity consumption; By comparing with the actual value of economy and electricity in Henan province in 2016, the validity of EETM model is proved, and the electricity consumption of the whole province from 2017 to 2018 is predicted finally.
Yu, Qing; Su, Yi-xiang; Wang, Wen-wei; Li, An-le; Liu, Cun-li; Wang, Yi-long; Hu, Wan-li
2007-07-01
To study the effects of soybean isoflavone (SI) on born metabolism and morphology in animal model of osteoporosis rats. All 70 female Sprague-Dawley (SD) rats were randomly divided into 7 groups according to the levels of total cholesterol (TC) in serum: hyper-lipoid group, estrogen group, low-dose SI group, middle-dose SI group, high-dose SI group, sham group and normal control groups. Bilateral ovaries were extirpated except sham and normal control groups. Except the rats in normal control group, the other rats were fed with high fat diet. Body weight was weighted ad unam vice per week. The estrogen, different dose of SI or deionized water were fed with intragastric administration for 12 weeks. Vena caudalis serum were collected after being ovariectomized, administered for 4 w, 8 w and killed. Serum alkaline phosphatase (AKP) activity and bone density were measured etc. To interfere of estrogen and SI might recover AKP enzyme activity after its being ovariectomized. There almost sowed no differences between high dose SI intervention and estrogen on bone density and microstructure. Bone loss due to being ovariectomized was relieved after SI intervention. SI might protect cardiocyte myofilament and mitochondrial ultramicrostructure. There was mirror image in estrogen, high dose SI group resembling the normal control group, and there was obvious damage in hyper-lipoids group. There should be effects of high dose SI on bone metabolism and morphology in animal model of osteoporosis rats. Serum AKP enzyme activity and bone density should have significantly recovered, the serum level of calcium and phosphorus were maintained after high dose intervened but no significant effects for low dose of SI.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kraus, Sascha; Brem, Alexander; Muench, Miriam
2017-01-01
Internationalization is a hot topic in innovation management, whereby the phenomenon of “Born Globals” is still limited to research in the domains of Entrepreneurship and International Management. As business model design plays a key role for Born Globals, we link these two concepts. For this, we...... propose hypotheses about the influence of efficiency-centered and novelty-entered business model design on international firm performance. To test these hypotheses, we performed a quantitative survey with 252 founders of international companies in Germany, Switzerland and Liechtenstein. Additionally, we...... gained further insights through a case study analysis of 11 Born Globals. The results show that business model design matters to international firm performance and the business model design of Born Globals tends to be more efficiency-centered. Based on a multiple case study, we analyzed business models...
Capturing and modelling high-complex alluvial topography with UAS-borne laser scanning
Mandlburger, Gottfried; Wieser, Martin; Pfennigbauer, Martin
2015-04-01
Due to fluvial activity alluvial forests are zones of highest complexity and relief energy. Alluvial forests are dominated by new and pristine channels in consequence of current and historic flood events. Apart from topographic features, the vegetation structure is typically very complex featuring, both, dense under story as well as high trees. Furthermore, deadwood and debris carried from upstream during periods of high discharge within the river channel are deposited in these areas. Therefore, precise modelling of the micro relief of alluvial forests using standard tools like Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS) is hardly feasible. Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS), in turn, is very time consuming for capturing larger areas as many scan positions are necessary for obtaining complete coverage due to view occlusions in the forest. In the recent past, the technological development of Unmanned Arial Systems (UAS) has reached a level that light-weight survey-grade laser scanners can be operated from these platforms. For capturing alluvial topography this could bridge the gap between ALS and TLS in terms of providing a very detailed description of the topography and the vegetation structure due to the achievable very high point density of >100 points per m2. In our contribution we demonstrate the feasibility to apply UAS-borne laser scanning for capturing and modelling the complex topography of the study area Neubacher Au, an alluvial forest at the pre-alpine River Pielach (Lower Austria). The area was captured with Riegl's VUX-1 compact time-of-flight laser scanner mounted on a RiCopter (X-8 array octocopter). The scanner features an effective scan rate of 500 kHz and was flown in 50-100 m above ground. At this flying height the laser footprint is 25-50 mm allowing mapping of very small surface details. Furthermore, online waveform processing of the backscattered laser energy enables the retrieval of multiple targets for single laser shots resulting in a dense point cloud of
Mathematical Modeling of Hybrid Electrical Engineering Systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. A. Lobaty
2016-01-01
Full Text Available A large class of systems that have found application in various industries and households, electrified transportation facilities and energy sector has been classified as electrical engineering systems. Their characteristic feature is a combination of continuous and discontinuous modes of operation, which is reflected in the appearance of a relatively new term “hybrid systems”. A wide class of hybrid systems is pulsed DC converters operating in a pulse width modulation, which are non-linear systems with variable structure. Using various methods for linearization it is possible to obtain linear mathematical models that rather accurately simulate behavior of such systems. However, the presence in the mathematical models of exponential nonlinearities creates considerable difficulties in the implementation of digital hardware. The solution can be found while using an approximation of exponential functions by polynomials of the first order, that, however, violates the rigor accordance of the analytical model with characteristics of a real object. There are two practical approaches to synthesize algorithms for control of hybrid systems. The first approach is based on the representation of the whole system by a discrete model which is described by difference equations that makes it possible to synthesize discrete algorithms. The second approach is based on description of the system by differential equations. The equations describe synthesis of continuous algorithms and their further implementation in a digital computer included in the control loop system. The paper considers modeling of a hybrid electrical engineering system using differential equations. Neglecting the pulse duration, it has been proposed to describe behavior of vector components in phase coordinates of the hybrid system by stochastic differential equations containing generally non-linear differentiable random functions. A stochastic vector-matrix equation describing dynamics of the
Electricity market pricing, risk hedging and modeling
Cheng, Xu
In this dissertation, we investigate the pricing, price risk hedging/arbitrage, and simplified system modeling for a centralized LMP-based electricity market. In an LMP-based market model, the full AC power flow model and the DC power flow model are most widely used to represent the transmission system. We investigate the differences of dispatching results, congestion pattern, and LMPs for the two power flow models. An appropriate LMP decomposition scheme to quantify the marginal costs of the congestion and real power losses is critical for the implementation of financial risk hedging markets. However, the traditional LMP decomposition heavily depends on the slack bus selection. In this dissertation we propose a slack-independent scheme to break LMP down into energy, congestion, and marginal loss components by analyzing the actual marginal cost of each bus at the optimal solution point. The physical and economic meanings of the marginal effect at each bus provide accurate price information for both congestion and losses, and thus the slack-dependency of the traditional scheme is eliminated. With electricity priced at the margin instead of the average value, the market operator typically collects more revenue from power sellers than that paid to power buyers. According to the LMP decomposition results, the revenue surplus is then divided into two parts: congestion charge surplus and marginal loss revenue surplus. We apply the LMP decomposition results to the financial tools, such as financial transmission right (FTR) and loss hedging right (LHR), which have been introduced to hedge against price risks associated to congestion and losses, to construct a full price risk hedging portfolio. The two-settlement market structure and the introduction of financial tools inevitably create market manipulation opportunities. We investigate several possible market manipulation behaviors by virtual bidding and propose a market monitor approach to identify and quantify such
Modeling liver electrical conductivity during hypertonic injection.
Castellví, Quim; Sánchez-Velázquez, Patricia; Moll, Xavier; Berjano, Enrique; Andaluz, Anna; Burdío, Fernando; Bijnens, Bart; Ivorra, Antoni
2018-01-01
Metastases in the liver frequently grow as scattered tumor nodules that neither can be removed by surgical resection nor focally ablated. Previously, we have proposed a novel technique based on irreversible electroporation that may be able to simultaneously treat all nodules in the liver while sparing healthy tissue. The proposed technique requires increasing the electrical conductivity of healthy liver by injecting a hypersaline solution through the portal vein. Aiming to assess the capability of increasing the global conductivity of the liver by means of hypersaline fluids, here, it is presented a mathematical model that estimates the NaCl distribution within the liver and the resulting conductivity change. The model fuses well-established compartmental pharmacokinetic models of the organ with saline injection models used for resuscitation treatments, and it considers changes in sinusoidal blood viscosity because of the hypertonicity of the solution. Here, it is also described a pilot experimental study in pigs in which different volumes of NaCl 20% (from 100 to 200 mL) were injected through the portal vein at different flow rates (from 53 to 171 mL/minute). The in vivo conductivity results fit those obtained by the model, both quantitatively and qualitatively, being able to predict the maximum conductivity with a 14.6% average relative error. The maximum conductivity value was 0.44 second/m, which corresponds to increasing 4 times the mean basal conductivity (0.11 second/m). The results suggest that the presented model is well suited for predicting on liver conductivity changes during hypertonic saline injection. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Towards a resource-based habitat approach for spatial modelling of vector-borne disease risks
Hartemink, N.; Vanwambeke, S.O.; Purse, B.V.; Gilbert, M.; Van Dyck, H.
2015-01-01
Given the veterinary and public health impact of vector-borne diseases, there is a clear need to assess the suitability of landscapes for the emergence and spread of these diseases. Current approaches for predicting disease risks neglect key features of the landscape as components of the functional
Larsson, C.; Lundqvist, J.; Rooijen, van N.; Bergstrom, S.
2009-01-01
Louse-borne relapsing fever (LBRF) borreliosis is caused by Borrelia recurrentis, and it is a deadly although treatable disease that is endemic in the Horn of Africa but has epidemic potential. Research on LBRF has been severely hampered because successful infection with B. recurrentis has been
Trattner, Sigal; Feigin, Micha; Greenspan, Hayit; Sochen, Nir
2008-03-01
The differential interference contrast (DIC) microscope is commonly used for the visualization of live biological specimens. It enables the view of the transparent specimens while preserving their viability, being a non-invasive modality. Fertility clinics often use the DIC microscope for evaluation of human embryos quality. Towards quantification and reconstruction of the visualized specimens, an image formation model for DIC imaging is sought and the interaction of light waves with biological matter is examined. In many image formation models the light-matter interaction is expressed via the first Born approximation. The validity region of this approximation is defined in a theoretical bound which limits its use to very small specimens with low dielectric contrast. In this work the Born approximation is investigated via the Helmholtz equation, which describes the interaction between the specimen and light. A solution on the lens field is derived using the Gaussian Legendre quadrature formulation. This numerical scheme is considered both accurate and efficient and has shortened significantly the computation time as compared to integration methods that required a great amount of sampling for satisfying the Whittaker - Shannon sampling theorem. By comparing the numerical results with the theoretical values it is shown that the theoretical bound is not directly relevant to microscopic imaging and is far too limiting. The numerical exhaustive experiments show that the Born approximation is inappropriate for modeling the visualization of thick human embryos.
Electric solar wind sail mass budget model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
P. Janhunen
2013-02-01
Full Text Available The electric solar wind sail (E-sail is a new type of propellantless propulsion system for Solar System transportation, which uses the natural solar wind to produce spacecraft propulsion. The E-sail consists of thin centrifugally stretched tethers that are kept charged by an onboard electron gun and, as such, experience Coulomb drag through the high-speed solar wind plasma stream. This paper discusses a mass breakdown and a performance model for an E-sail spacecraft that hosts a mission-specific payload of prescribed mass. In particular, the model is able to estimate the total spacecraft mass and its propulsive acceleration as a function of various design parameters such as the number of tethers and their length. A number of subsystem masses are calculated assuming existing or near-term E-sail technology. In light of the obtained performance estimates, an E-sail represents a promising propulsion system for a variety of transportation needs in the Solar System.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bødker, Rene
period e.g. a monthly temperature mean. Average monthly temperatures are likely to be suitable for predicting permanent establishment of presently exotic diseases. But mean temperatures may not predict the true potential for local spread or limited outbreaks resulting from accidental introductions...... for continuous risk assessment of the potential for local spread of exotic insect borne diseases of veterinary and human importance. In this system R0-models for various vector borne diseases are continuously updated with spatial temperature data to quantify the present risk of autochthonous cases (R0......>0) and the present risk of epidemics (R0>1) should an infected vector or host be introduced to the area. The continuously updated risk assessment maps function as an early warning system allowing authorities and industry to increase awareness and preventive measures when R0 raises above the level of ‗no possible...
Modeling the return and volatility of the Greek electricity marginal system price
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Theodorou, Petros; Karyampas, Dimitrios
2008-01-01
Traditional cost based optimization models (WASP) for expansion planning do not allow for mark-to-market valuation and cannot satisfy arbitrage free requirements. This work will fill this gap by developing and estimating models for mark-to-market valuation. Furthermore the present paper examines the return and volatility of the newly born Greek's electricity market's marginal system price. A detailed description of the market mechanism and regulation is used to describe how prices are determined in order to proceed with return and volatility modeling. Continuous time mean reverting and time varying mean reverting stochastic processes have been solved in discrete time processes and estimated econometrically along with ARMAX and GARCH models. It was found that GARCH model gave much better estimation and forecasting ability. Strong persistence in mean has been found giving suspicions of market inefficiency and strong incentives for arbitrage opportunities. Finally, the change in the regulatory framework has been controlled and found to have significant impact. (author)
Diversity modelling for electrical power system simulation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sharip, R M; Abu Zarim, M A U A
2013-01-01
This paper considers diversity of generation and demand profiles against the different future energy scenarios and evaluates these on a technical basis. Compared to previous studies, this research applied a forecasting concept based on possible growth rates from publically electrical distribution scenarios concerning the UK. These scenarios were created by different bodies considering aspects such as environment, policy, regulation, economic and technical. In line with these scenarios, forecasting is on a long term timescale (up to every ten years from 2020 until 2050) in order to create a possible output of generation mix and demand profiles to be used as an appropriate boundary condition for the network simulation. The network considered is a segment of rural LV populated with a mixture of different housing types. The profiles for the 'future' energy and demand have been successfully modelled by applying a forecasting method. The network results under these profiles shows for the cases studied that even though the value of the power produced from each Micro-generation is often in line with the demand requirements of an individual dwelling there will be no problems arising from high penetration of Micro-generation and demand side management for each dwellings considered. The results obtained highlight the technical issues/changes for energy delivery and management to rural customers under the future energy scenarios
Diversity modelling for electrical power system simulation
Sharip, R. M.; Abu Zarim, M. A. U. A.
2013-12-01
This paper considers diversity of generation and demand profiles against the different future energy scenarios and evaluates these on a technical basis. Compared to previous studies, this research applied a forecasting concept based on possible growth rates from publically electrical distribution scenarios concerning the UK. These scenarios were created by different bodies considering aspects such as environment, policy, regulation, economic and technical. In line with these scenarios, forecasting is on a long term timescale (up to every ten years from 2020 until 2050) in order to create a possible output of generation mix and demand profiles to be used as an appropriate boundary condition for the network simulation. The network considered is a segment of rural LV populated with a mixture of different housing types. The profiles for the 'future' energy and demand have been successfully modelled by applying a forecasting method. The network results under these profiles shows for the cases studied that even though the value of the power produced from each Micro-generation is often in line with the demand requirements of an individual dwelling there will be no problems arising from high penetration of Micro-generation and demand side management for each dwellings considered. The results obtained highlight the technical issues/changes for energy delivery and management to rural customers under the future energy scenarios.
Electrical conductivity modeling in fractal non-saturated porous media
Wei, W.; Cai, J.; Hu, X.; Han, Q.
2016-12-01
The variety of electrical conductivity in non-saturated conditions is important to study electric conduction in natural sedimentary rocks. The electrical conductivity in completely saturated porous media is a porosity-function representing the complex connected behavior of single conducting phases (pore fluid). For partially saturated conditions, the electrical conductivity becomes even more complicated since the connectedness of pore. Archie's second law is an empirical electrical conductivity-porosity and -saturation model that has been used to predict the formation factor of non-saturated porous rock. However, the physical interpretation of its parameters, e.g., the cementation exponent m and the saturation exponent n, remains questionable. On basis of our previous work, we combine the pore-solid fractal (PSF) model to build an electrical conductivity model in non-saturated porous media. Our theoretical porosity- and saturation-dependent models contain endmember properties, such as fluid electrical conductivities, pore fractal dimension and tortuosity fractal dimension (representing the complex degree of electrical flowing path). We find the presented model with non-saturation-dependent electrical conductivity datasets indicate excellent match between theory and experiments. This means the value of pore fractal dimension and tortuosity fractal dimension change from medium to medium and depends not only on geometrical properties of pore structure but also characteristics of electrical current flowing in the non-saturated porous media.
A hybrid society model for simulating residential electricity consumption
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Xu, Minjie [School of Electrical Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing (China); State Power Economic Research Institute, Beijing (China); Hu, Zhaoguang [State Power Economic Research Institute, Beijing (China); Wu, Junyong; Zhou, Yuhui [School of Electrical Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing (China)
2008-12-15
In this paper, a hybrid social model of econometric model and social influence model is proposed for evaluating the influence of pricing policy and public education policy on residential habit of electricity using in power resources management. And, a hybrid society simulation platform based on the proposed model, called residential electricity consumption multi-agent systems (RECMAS), is designed for simulating residential electricity consumption by multi-agent system. RECMAS is composed of consumer agent, power supplier agent, and policy maker agent. It provides the policy makers with a useful tool to evaluate power price policies and public education campaigns in different scenarios. According to an influenced diffusion mechanism, RECMAS can simulate the residential electricity demand-supply chain and analyze impacts of the factors on residential electricity consumption. Finally, the proposed method is used to simulate urban residential electricity consumption in China. (author)
A hybrid society model for simulating residential electricity consumption
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Xu, Minjie; Hu, Zhaoguang; Wu, Junyong; Zhou, Yuhui
2008-01-01
In this paper, a hybrid social model of econometric model and social influence model is proposed for evaluating the influence of pricing policy and public education policy on residential habit of electricity using in power resources management. And, a hybrid society simulation platform based on the proposed model, called residential electricity consumption multi-agent systems (RECMAS), is designed for simulating residential electricity consumption by multi-agent system. RECMAS is composed of consumer agent, power supplier agent, and policy maker agent. It provides the policy makers with a useful tool to evaluate power price policies and public education campaigns in different scenarios. According to an influenced diffusion mechanism, RECMAS can simulate the residential electricity demand-supply chain and analyze impacts of the factors on residential electricity consumption. Finally, the proposed method is used to simulate urban residential electricity consumption in China. (author)
Model Design on Emergency Power Supply of Electric Vehicle
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yuanliang Zhao
2017-01-01
Full Text Available According to the mobile storage characteristic of electric vehicles, an emergency power supply model about the electric vehicles is presented through analyzing its storage characteristic. The model can ensure important consumer loss minimization during power failure or emergency and can make electric vehicles cost minimization about running, scheduling, and vindicating. In view of the random dispersion feature in one area, an emergency power supply scheme using the electric vehicles is designed based on the K-means algorithm. The purpose is to improve the electric vehicles initiative gathering ability and reduce the electric vehicles gathering time. The study can reduce the number of other emergency power supply equipment and improve the urban electricity reliability.
Integrative Modeling of Electrical Properties of Pacemaker Cardiac Cells
Grigoriev, M.; Babich, L.
2016-06-01
This work represents modeling of electrical properties of pacemaker (sinus) cardiac cells. Special attention is paid to electrical potential arising from transmembrane current of Na+, K+ and Ca2+ ions. This potential is calculated using the NaCaX model. In this respect, molar concentration of ions in the intercellular space which is calculated on the basis of the GENTEX model is essential. Combined use of two different models allows referring this approach to integrative modeling.
Simulation of electric power conservation strategies: model of economic evaluation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pinhel, A.C.C.
1992-01-01
A methodology for the economic evaluation model for energy conservation programs to be executed by the National Program of Electric Power Conservation is presented. From data as: forecasting of conserved energy, tariffs, energy costs and budget, the model calculates the economic indexes for the programs, allowing the evaluation of economic impacts in the electric sector. (C.G.C.)
An electricity billing model | Adetona | Journal of Applied Science ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Linear regression analysis has been employed to develop a model for predicting accurately the electricity billing for commercial consumers in Ogun State (Nigeria) at faster rate. The electricity billing model was implement-ed, executed and tested using embedded MATLAB function blocks. The correlations between the ...
Modeling and Nonlinear Control of Electric Power Stage in Hybrid Electric Vehicle
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Tahri, A.; El Fadil, H.; Guerrero, Josep M.
2014-01-01
This paper deals with the problem of modeling and controlling the electric power stage of hybrid electric vehicle. The controlled system consists of a fuel cell (FC) as a main source, a supercapacitor as an auxiliary source, two DC-DC power converters, an inverter and a traction induction motor...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Heinemann, Ronald
2014-01-01
One of the main goals of the Renewable Energy Law (EEG) is the market integration of renewable energy resources. For this purpose it has introduced compulsory direct marketing on the basis of a moving market premium. At the same time the green electricity privilege, a regulation which made it possible for customers to be supplied with electricity from EEG plants, has been abolished without substitution with effect from 1 August 2014. This means that, aside from other direct marketing channels, which will not be economically viable save for in a few exceptional cases, it will no longer be possible in future to sell electricity from EEG plants to electricity customers under the designation ''electricity from renewable energy''. The reason for this is that electricity sold under the market premium model can no longer justifiably be said to originate from renewable energy. As a consequence, almost all green electricity products sold in Germany carry a foreign green electricity certificate.
Short-term electric power demand forecasting based on economic-electricity transmission model
Li, Wenfeng; Bai, Hongkun; Liu, Wei; Liu, Yongmin; Wang, Yubin Mao; Wang, Jiangbo; He, Dandan
2018-04-01
Short-term electricity demand forecasting is the basic work to ensure safe operation of the power system. In this paper, a practical economic electricity transmission model (EETM) is built. With the intelligent adaptive modeling capabilities of Prognoz Platform 7.2, the econometric model consists of three industrial added value and income levels is firstly built, the electricity demand transmission model is also built. By multiple regression, moving averages and seasonal decomposition, the problem of multiple correlations between variables is effectively overcome in EETM. The validity of EETM is proved by comparison with the actual value of Henan Province. Finally, EETM model is used to forecast the electricity consumption of the 1-4 quarter of 2018.
Modeling and optimization of an electric power distribution network ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Modeling and optimization of an electric power distribution network planning system using ... of the network was modelled with non-linear mathematical expressions. ... given feasible locations, re-conductoring of existing feeders in the network, ...
Linking electricity and water models to assess electricity choices at water-relevant scales
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sattler, S; Rogers, J; Macknick, J; Lopez, A; Yates, D; Flores-Lopez, F
2012-01-01
Hydrology/water management and electricity generation projections have been modeled separately, but there has been little effort in intentionally and explicitly linking the two sides of the water–energy nexus. This paper describes a platform for assessing power plant cooling water withdrawals and consumption under different electricity pathways at geographic and time scales appropriate for both electricity and hydrology/water management. This platform uses estimates of regional electricity generation by the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) as input to a hydrologic and water management model—the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system. In WEAP, this electricity use represents thermoelectric cooling water withdrawals and consumption within the broader, regional water resource context. Here we describe linking the electricity and water models, including translating electricity generation results from ReEDS-relevant geographies to the water-relevant geographies of WEAP. The result of this analysis is water use by the electric sector at the regional watershed level, which is used to examine the water resource implications of these electricity pathways. (letter)
An electricity and environmental policy model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hanson, D.A.
1993-01-01
This paper describes work being done to simulate the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA), Title IV, Acidic Deposition Control, which introduced tradable, bankable SO 2 emission allowances. The Title IV simulations are compared with three other scenarios on a regional basis in order to calculate the following: the absolute cost savings of the tradable/ bankable approach, the relative cost savings of the tradable/ bankable approach derived from a baseline of no controls, the environmental improvement, measured in terms of SO 2 emission reduction, that will be achieved under Title IV compared with a more rigid command-and-control regulation with the same cost. Hence, the simulations illustrate the basic point that more efficient market-based regulation can either reduce costs or can provide enhanced environmental quality, or both. It is important for policy formation to get a handle on relative magnitudes. The National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP) 1990 Assessment suggested a 25% cost saving from tradable emission allowances relative to command-and-control. Both the relative savings potential and the absolute savings potential matter because a small relative savings in a large regulatory program may still be worth pursuing. Regional cost reductions and environmental improvements are of particular interest. However, this study goes further to characterize likely SO 2 emission trading patterns within and among utility operating systems. The study also characterizes the coal market and the induced sulfur premiums over time and the market price path for SO 2 emission allowances. It is shown that the sulfur premium is equivalent to the SO 2 allowance price. This paper focuses on the methodology and on the new electric utility planning and compliance model which was designed for the study
Honjo, Keita; Shiraki, Hiroto; Ashina, Shuichi
2018-01-01
After the severe nuclear disaster in Fukushima, which was triggered by the Great East Japan earthquake in March 2011, nuclear power plants in Japan were temporarily shut down for mandatory inspections. To prevent large-scale blackouts, the Japanese government requested companies and households to reduce electricity consumption in summer and winter. It is reported that the domestic electricity demand had a structural decrease because of the electricity conservation effect (ECE). However, quantitative analysis of the ECE is not sufficient, and especially time variation of the ECE remains unclear. Understanding the ECE is important because Japan's NDC (nationally determined contribution) assumes the reduction of CO2 emissions through aggressive energy conservation. In this study, we develop a time series model of monthly electricity demand in Japan and estimate time variation of the ECE. Moreover, we evaluate the impact of electricity conservation on CO2 emissions from power plants. The dynamic linear model is used to separate the ECE from the effects of other irrelevant factors (e.g. air temperature, economic production, and electricity price). Our result clearly shows that consumers' electricity conservation behavior after the earthquake was not temporary but became established as a habit. Between March 2011 and March 2016, the ECE on industrial electricity demand ranged from 3.9% to 5.4%, and the ECE on residential electricity demand ranged from 1.6% to 7.6%. The ECE on the total electricity demand was estimated at 3.2%-6.0%. We found a seasonal pattern that the residential ECE in summer is higher than that in winter. The emissions increase from the shutdown of nuclear power plants was mitigated by electricity conservation. The emissions reduction effect was estimated at 0.82 MtCO2-2.26 MtCO2 (-4.5% on average compared to the zero-ECE case). The time-varying ECE is necessary for predicting Japan's electricity demand and CO2 emissions after the earthquake.
Large-scale parameter extraction in electrocardiology models through Born approximation
He, Yuan; Keyes, David E.
2012-01-01
One of the main objectives in electrocardiology is to extract physical properties of cardiac tissues from measured information on electrical activity of the heart. Mathematically, this is an inverse problem for reconstructing coefficients
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Natalia S Pripuzova
Full Text Available Tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV is one of the most prevalent and medically important tick-borne arboviruses in Eurasia. There are overlapping foci of two flaviviruses: TBEV and Omsk hemorrhagic fever virus (OHFV in Russia. Inactivated vaccines exist only against TBE. There are no antiviral drugs for treatment of both diseases. Optimal animal models are necessary to study efficacy of novel vaccines and treatment preparations against TBE and relative flaviviruses. The models for TBE and OHF using subcutaneous inoculation were tested in Cercopithecus aethiops and Macaca fascicularis monkeys with or without prior immunization with inactivated TBE vaccine. No visible clinical signs or severe pathomorphological lesions were observed in any monkey infected with TBEV or OHFV. C. aethiops challenged with OHFV showed massive hemolytic syndrome and thrombocytopenia. Infectious virus or viral RNA was revealed in visceral organs and CNS of C. aethiops infected with both viruses; however, viremia was low. Inactivated TBE vaccines induced high antibody titers against both viruses and expressed booster after challenge. The protective efficacy against TBE was shown by the absence of virus in spleen, lymph nodes and CNS of immunized animals after challenge. Despite the absence of expressed hemolytic syndrome in immunized C. aethiops TBE vaccine did not prevent the reproduction of OHFV in CNS and visceral organs. Subcutaneous inoculation of M. fascicularis with two TBEV strains led to a febrile disease with well expressed viremia, fever, and virus reproduction in spleen, lymph nodes and CNS. The optimal terms for estimation of the viral titers in CNS were defined as 8-16 days post infection. We characterized two animal models similar to humans in their susceptibility to tick-borne flaviviruses and found the most optimal scheme for evaluation of efficacy of preventive and therapeutic preparations. We also identified M. fascicularis to be more susceptible to
Cytotoxic and genotoxic potential of food-borne nitriles in a liver in vitro model
Kupke, Franziska; Herz, Corinna; Hanschen, Franziska S.; Platz, Stefanie; Odongo, Grace A.; Helmig, Simone; Bartolomé Rodríguez, María M.; Schreiner, Monika; Rohn, Sascha; Lamy, Evelyn
2016-01-01
Isothiocyanates are the most intensively studied breakdown products of glucosinolates from Brassica plants and well recognized for their pleiotropic effects against cancer but also for their genotoxic potential. However, knowledge about the bioactivity of glucosinolate-borne nitriles in foods is very poor. As determined by GC-MS, broccoli glucosinolates mainly degrade to nitriles as breakdown products. The cytotoxicity of nitriles in human HepG2 cells and primary murine hepatocytes was marginal as compared to isothiocyanates. Toxicity of nitriles was not enhanced in CYP2E1-overexpressing HepG2 cells. In contrast, the genotoxic potential of nitriles was found to be comparable to isothiocyanates. DNA damage was persistent over a certain time period and CYP2E1-overexpression further increased the genotoxic potential of the nitriles. Based on actual in vitro data, no indications are given that food-borne nitriles could be relevant for cancer prevention, but could pose a certain genotoxic risk under conditions relevant for food consumption. PMID:27883018
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Buckingham, A.C.; Siekhaus, W.J.
1982-01-01
The unsteady, non-similar, chemically reactive, turbulent boundary layer equations are modified for gas plus dispersed solid particle mixtures, for gas phase turbulent combustion reactions and for heterogeneous gas-solid surface erosive reactions. The exterior (ballistic core) edge boundary conditions for the solutions are modified to include dispersed particle influences on core propellant combustion-generated turbulence levels, combustion reactants and products, and reaction-induced, non-isentropic mixture states. The wall surface (in this study it is always steel) is considered either bare or coated with a fixed particle coating which is conceptually non-reactive, insulative, and non-ablative. Two families of solutions are compared. These correspond to: (1) consideration of gas-borne, free-slip, almost spontaneously mobile (motile) solid particle additives which influence the turbulent heat transfer at the uncoated steel surface and, in contrast, (2) consideration of particle-free, gas phase turbulent heat transfer to the insulated surface coated by stationary particles. Significant differences in erosive heat transfer are found in comparing the two families of solutions over a substantial range of interior ballistic flow conditions. The most effective influences on reducing erosive heat transfer appear to favor mobile, gas-borne particle additives
Modelling of dynamic equivalents in electric power grids
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Craciun, Diana Iuliana
2010-01-01
In a first part, this research thesis proposes a description of the context and new constraints of electric grids: architecture, decentralized production with the impact of distributed energy resource systems, dynamic simulation, and interest of equivalent models. Then, the author discusses the modelling of the different components of electric grids: synchronous and asynchronous machines, distributed energy resource with power electronic interface, loading models. She addresses the techniques of reduction of electric grid models: conventional reduction methods, dynamic equivalence methods using non linear approaches or evolutionary algorithm-based methods of assessment of parameters. This last approach is then developed and implemented, and a new method of computation of dynamic equivalents is described
Electrically assisted forming modeling and control
Salandro, Wesley A; Bunget, Cristina; Mears, Laine; Roth, John T
2015-01-01
Maximizing reader insights into the latest research findings and applications of Electrically-Assisted Forming (EAF) – whereby metals are formed under an electric current field – this book explains how such a process produces immediate improved formability of metals beyond the extent of thermal softening, and allows metals to be formed to greater elongation with lower mechanical energy as well as allowing for lightweight brittle metals such as magnesium and titanium to be formed without external heating or annealing, enabling the more effective use of these lightweight metals in design. Including case studies that illustrate and support the theoretical content and real-world applications of the techniques discussed, this book also serves to enrich readers understanding of the underlying theories that influence electro-plastic behaviour. The authors have extensive experience in studying Electrically-Assisted Forming and have written extensively on the topic with publications including experimental works, t...
An options model for electric power markets
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ghosh, Kanchan; Ramesh, V.C.
1997-01-01
The international electric utility industry is undergoing a radical transformation from an essentially regulated and monopolistic industry to an industry made uncertain with impending deregulation and the advent of competitive forces. This paper investigates the development of an options market for bulk power trading in a market setup while considering power system planning and operational constraints and/or requirements. In so doing it considers the different market based financial derivative instruments while can be used to trade electrical power in bulk and examines how established tools such as Optimal Power Flow (OPF) may be applied in helping to develop a price for bulk power transactions under a market based setup. (Author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Menezes, R.; Nascimento, J.R.S.; Ribeiro, R.F.; Wotzasek, C.
2002-01-01
We study the dual equivalence between the non-linear generalization of the self-dual (NSD BF ) and the topologically massive B and F models with particular emphasis on the non-linear electrodynamics proposed by Born and Infeld. This is done through a dynamical gauge embedding of the non-linear self-dual model yielding to a gauge invariant and dynamically equivalent theory. We clearly show that non-polinomial NSD BF models can be map, through a properly defined duality transformation into TM BF actions. The general result obtained is then particularized for a number of examples, including the Born-Infeld-BF (BIBF) model that has experienced a revival in the recent literature
Varandas, A J C; Sarkar, B
2011-05-14
Generalized Born-Oppenheimer equations including the geometrical phase effect are derived for three- and four-fold electronic manifolds in Jahn-Teller systems near the degeneracy seam. The method is readily extendable to N-fold systems of arbitrary dimension. An application is reported for a model threefold system, and the results are compared with Born-Oppenheimer (geometrical phase ignored), extended Born-Oppenheimer, and coupled three-state calculations. The theory shows unprecedented simplicity while depicting all features of more elaborated ones.
Notes on Born-Infeld-type electrodynamics
Kruglov, S. I.
2017-11-01
We propose a new model of nonlinear electrodynamics (NLED) with three parameters. Born-Infeld (BI) electrodynamics and exponential electrodynamics are particular cases of this model. The phenomenon of vacuum birefringence in the external magnetic field is studied. We show that there is no singularity of the electric field at the origin of point-like charged particles. The corrections to Coulomb’s law at r →∞ are obtained. We calculate the total electrostatic energy of charges, for different parameters of the model, which is finite.
A simplified model of polar cap electric fields
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
D'Angelo, N.
1977-01-01
A simple-minded 'model' is used in order to visualize the gross features of polar cap electric fields, in particular the 'diode' effect which had emerged already from earlier observations and the asymmetry between the electric fields observed on the dawn and dusk sides of the polar cap, which depends on Bsub(y)
The Interval Stability of an Electricity Market Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Weijuan Wang
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Combined with the electric power market dynamic model put forward by Alvarado, an interval model of electricity markets is established and investigated in this paper pertaining to the range of demand elasticity with suppliers and consumers. The stability of an electricity market framework with demand elasticity interval is analyzed. The conclusions characterizing the interval model provided are derived by constructing a suitable Lyapunov function and using the theory of interval dynamical system in differential equations and matrix inequality theory and so forth. Applying the corollary obtained can judge the system stability by available data about demand elasticity. The obtained results are validated and illustrated by a case example.
Gao, Daozhou; Lou, Yijun; He, Daihai; Porco, Travis C.; Kuang, Yang; Chowell, Gerardo; Ruan, Shigui
2016-06-01
The ongoing Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas poses a major global public health emergency. While ZIKV is transmitted from human to human by bites of Aedes mosquitoes, recent evidence indicates that ZIKV can also be transmitted via sexual contact with cases of sexually transmitted ZIKV reported in Argentina, Canada, Chile, France, Italy, New Zealand, Peru, Portugal, and the USA. Yet, the role of sexual transmission on the spread and control of ZIKV infection is not well-understood. We introduce a mathematical model to investigate the impact of mosquito-borne and sexual transmission on the spread and control of ZIKV and calibrate the model to ZIKV epidemic data from Brazil, Colombia, and El Salvador. Parameter estimates yielded a basic reproduction number 0 = 2.055 (95% CI: 0.523-6.300), in which the percentage contribution of sexual transmission is 3.044% (95% CI: 0.123-45.73). Our sensitivity analyses indicate that 0 is most sensitive to the biting rate and mortality rate of mosquitoes while sexual transmission increases the risk of infection and epidemic size and prolongs the outbreak. Prevention and control efforts against ZIKV should target both the mosquito-borne and sexual transmission routes.
Electric vehicle charge planning using Economic Model Predictive Control
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Halvgaard, Rasmus; Poulsen, Niels K.; Madsen, Henrik
2012-01-01
Economic Model Predictive Control (MPC) is very well suited for controlling smart energy systems since electricity price and demand forecasts are easily integrated in the controller. Electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to play a large role in the future Smart Grid. They are expected to provide...... grid services, both for peak reduction and for ancillary services, by absorbing short term variations in the electricity production. In this paper the Economic MPC minimizes the cost of electricity consumption for a single EV. Simulations show savings of 50–60% of the electricity costs compared...... to uncontrolled charging from load shifting based on driving pattern predictions. The future energy system in Denmark will most likely be based on renewable energy sources e.g. wind and solar power. These green energy sources introduce stochastic fluctuations in the electricity production. Therefore, energy...
Complexity of repeated game model in electric power triopoly
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ma Junhai; Ji Weizhuo
2009-01-01
According to the repeated game model in electric power duopoly, a triopoly outputs game model is presented. On the basis of some hypotheses, the dynamic characters are demonstrated with theoretical analysis and numerical simulations. The results show that the triopoly model is a chaotic system and it is better than the duopoly model in applications.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Javier González-Miguel
Full Text Available The interaction between blood-borne pathogens and fibrinolysis is one of the most important mechanisms that mediate invasion and the establishment of infectious agents in their hosts. However, overproduction of plasmin (final product of the route has been related in other contexts to proliferation and migration of the arterial wall cells and degradation of the extracellular matrix. We have recently identified fibrinolysis-activating antigens from Dirofilaria immitis, a blood-borne parasite whose key pathological event (proliferative endarteritis is produced by similar mechanisms to those indicated above. The objective of this work is to study how two of this antigens [actin (ACT and fructose-bisphosphate aldolase (FBAL] highly conserved in pathogens, activate fibrinolysis and to establish a relationship between this activation and the development of proliferative endarteritis during cardiopulmonary dirofilariasis. We demonstrate that both proteins bind plasminogen, enhance plasmin generation, stimulate the expression of the fibrinolytic activators tPA and uPA in endothelial cell cultures and are located on the surface of the worm in contact with the host's blood. ELISA, western blot and immunofluorescence techniques were employed for this purpose. Additionally, the implication of lysine residues in this interaction was analyzed by bioinformatics. The involvement of plasmin generated by the ACT/FBAL and plasminogen binding in cell proliferation and migration, and degradation of the extracellular matrix were shown in an "in vitro" model of endothelial and smooth muscle cells in culture. The obtained results indicate that ACT and FBAL from D. immitis activate fibrinolysis, which could be used by the parasite like a survival mechanism to avoid the clot formation. However, long-term overproduction of plasmin can trigger pathological events similar to those described in the emergence of proliferative endarteritis. Due to the high degree of
Electricity market liberalisation - the German model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mueller, W.
2002-01-01
This article discusses the experience gained as a result of the opening of the German electricity market - not only from the national but also from European and international points of view. The history of electricity market liberalisation in Germany is described and the market's structure is compared with that of Switzerland. Both the advantages and disadvantages that have been brought about by liberalisation are discussed as well as the role of state regulation. Certain problem areas still to be tackled are discussed, such those in the areas of cartels, possibilities of supplier-change and tariffs. Also, liberalisation in the context of the European Union's efforts in this area are discussed, especially with respect to the consideration of differing structures in the various member countries of the Union
Electrical circuit modeling of reversed field pinches
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sprott, J.C.
1988-02-01
Equations are proposed to describe the radial variation of the magnetic field and current density in a circular, cylindrical RFP. These equations are used to derive the electrical circuit parameters (inductance, resistance, and coupling coefficient) for an RFP discharge. The circuit parameters are used to evaluate the flux and energy consumption for various startup modes and for steady-state operation using oscillating field current drive. The results are applied to the MST device. 32 refs., 14 figs., 1 tab
Numerical Modeling of Electrical Contact Conductance of Rough Bodies
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. V. Murashov
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Since the beginning of the 20th century to the present time, efforts have been made to develop a model of the electrical contact conductance. The development of micro- and nanotechnologies make contact conductance problem more essential. To conduct borrowing from a welldeveloped thermal contact conductance models on the basis of thermal and electrical conductivity analogy is often not possible due to a number of fundamental differences. While some 3Dmodels of rough bodies deformation have been developed in one way or another, a 3D-model of the electrical conductance through rough bodies contact is still not. A spatial model of electrical contact of rough bodies is proposed, allows one to calculate the electrical contact conductance as a function of the contact pressure. Representative elements of the bodies are parallelepipeds with deterministic roughness on the contacting surfaces. First the non-linear elastic-plastic deformation of rough surface under external pressure is solved using the finite element software ANSYS. Then the solution of electrostatic problem goes on the same finite element mesh. Aluminum AD1 is used as the material of the contacting bodies with properties that account for cold work hardening of the surface. The numerical model is built within the continuum mechanics and nanoscale effects are not taken into account. The electrical contact conductance was calculated on the basis of the concept of electrical resistance of the model as the sum of the electrical resistances of the contacting bodies and the contact itself. It was assumed that there is no air in the gap between the bodies. The dependence of the electrical contact conductance on the contact pressure is calculated as well as voltage and current density distributions in the contact bodies. It is determined that the multi-asperity contact mode, adequate to real roughness, is achieved at pressures higher than 3MPa, while results within the single contact spot are
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Romanenko N. G.
2017-10-01
Full Text Available the application of virtual laboratories will allow to show different transition processes, as well as to carry out experiments that are very expensive in real electrical machines’ labs, for example, to calculate the energy costs in electric drives. Models of non-regulation asynchronous drive and frequency-regulated asynchronous electric drive are examined in this article. The author has calculated and compared the energy losses of these systems with various types of loads and this lets us to evaluate work processes of many technical devices.
A conjugate thermo-electric model for a composite medium.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Oscar Chávez
Full Text Available Electrical transmission signals have been used for decades to characterize the internal structure of composite materials. We theoretically analyze the transmission of an electrical signal through a composite material which consists of two phases with different chemical compositions. We assume that the temperature of the biphasic system increases as a result of Joule heating and its electrical resistivity varies linearly with temperature; this last consideration leads to simultaneously study the electrical and thermal effects. We propose a nonlinear conjugate thermo-electric model, which is solved numerically to obtain the current density and temperature profiles for each phase. We study the effect of frequency, resistivities and thermal conductivities on the current density and temperature. We validate the prediction of the model with comparisons with experimental data obtained from rock characterization tests.
Electrical model of dielectric barrier discharge homogenous and filamentary modes
López-Fernandez, J. A.; Peña-Eguiluz, R.; López-Callejas, R.; Mercado-Cabrera, A.; Valencia-Alvarado, R.; Muñoz-Castro, A.; Rodríguez-Méndez, B. G.
2017-01-01
This work proposes an electrical model that combines homogeneous and filamentary modes of an atmospheric pressure dielectric barrier discharge cell. A voltage controlled electric current source has been utilized to implement the power law equation that represents the homogeneous discharge mode, which starts when the gas breakdown voltage is reached. The filamentary mode implies the emergence of electric current conducting channels (microdischarges), to add this phenomenon an RC circuit commutated by an ideal switch has been proposed. The switch activation occurs at a higher voltage level than the gas breakdown voltage because it is necessary to impose a huge electric field that contributes to the appearance of streamers. The model allows the estimation of several electric parameters inside the reactor that cannot be measured. Also, it is possible to appreciate the modes of the DBD depending on the applied voltage magnitude. Finally, it has been recognized a good agreement between simulation outcomes and experimental results.
Electrical model of dielectric barrier discharge homogenous and filamentary modes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
López-Fernandez, J A; Peña-Eguiluz, R; López-Callejas, R; Mercado-Cabrera, A; Valencia-Alvarado, R; Muñoz-Castro, A; Rodríguez-Méndez, B G
2017-01-01
This work proposes an electrical model that combines homogeneous and filamentary modes of an atmospheric pressure dielectric barrier discharge cell. A voltage controlled electric current source has been utilized to implement the power law equation that represents the homogeneous discharge mode, which starts when the gas breakdown voltage is reached. The filamentary mode implies the emergence of electric current conducting channels (microdischarges), to add this phenomenon an RC circuit commutated by an ideal switch has been proposed. The switch activation occurs at a higher voltage level than the gas breakdown voltage because it is necessary to impose a huge electric field that contributes to the appearance of streamers. The model allows the estimation of several electric parameters inside the reactor that cannot be measured. Also, it is possible to appreciate the modes of the DBD depending on the applied voltage magnitude. Finally, it has been recognized a good agreement between simulation outcomes and experimental results. (paper)
Electricity generation modeling and photovoltaic forecasts in China
Li, Shengnan
With the economic development of China, the demand for electricity generation is rapidly increasing. To explain electricity generation, we use gross GDP, the ratio of urban population to rural population, the average per capita income of urban residents, the electricity price for industry in Beijing, and the policy shift that took place in China. Ordinary least squares (OLS) is used to develop a model for the 1979--2009 period. During the process of designing the model, econometric methods are used to test and develop the model. The final model is used to forecast total electricity generation and assess the possible role of photovoltaic generation. Due to the high demand for resources and serious environmental problems, China is pushing to develop the photovoltaic industry. The system price of PV is falling; therefore, photovoltaics may be competitive in the future.
The Oak Ridge Competitive Electricity Dispatch (ORCED) Model Version 9
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hadley, Stanton W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Baek, Young Sun [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
2016-11-01
The Oak Ridge Competitive Electricity Dispatch (ORCED) model dispatches power plants in a region to meet the electricity demands for any single given year up to 2030. It uses publicly available sources of data describing electric power units such as the National Energy Modeling System and hourly demands from utility submittals to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission that are projected to a future year. The model simulates a single region of the country for a given year, matching generation to demands and predefined net exports from the region, assuming no transmission constraints within the region. ORCED can calculate a number of key financial and operating parameters for generating units and regional market outputs including average and marginal prices, air emissions, and generation adequacy. By running the model with and without changes such as generation plants, fuel prices, emission costs, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, distributed generation, or demand response, the marginal impact of these changes can be found.
Electrical circuit model of ITO/AZO/Ge photodetector.
Patel, Malkeshkumar; Kim, Joondong
2017-10-01
In this data article, ITO/AZO/Ge photodetector was investigated for electrical circuit model. Due to the double (ITO and AZO) transparent metal-oxide films (DOI:10.1016/j.mssp.2016.03.007) (Yun et al., 2016) [1], the Ge heterojunction device has a better interface quality due to the AZO layer with a low electrical resistance due to the ITO layer (Yun et al., 2015) [2]. The electrical and interfacial benefitted ITO/AZO/Ge heterojunction shows the quality Schottky junction. In order to investigate the device, the ITO/AZO/Ge heterojunction was analyzed by R-C circuit model using the impedance spectroscopy.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Roldgaard, Bent; Andersen, Jens Bo; Hansen, Tina Beck
2009-01-01
Three different Listeria monocytogenes strains, LO28 (a laboratory strain with truncated InlA), 4446 (a clinical isolate) and 7291 (a food isolate), were compared in a guinea-pig model designed to mimic food-borne exposure. The objectives were (1) to verify the applicability of the animal model...... for distinguishing between Listeria with different virulence properties and (2) to explore whether it was possible to reduce the required number of animals by dosing with mixed cultures instead of monocultures. Consistent with in vitro observations of infectivity in Caco-2 cells, faecal densities and presence...... of Listeria strains gave similar results as dosage with a mixture of the three strains; thus, the mixed infection approach was a feasible way to reduce the number of animals needed for determination of listerial virulence....
Electricity Market Stochastic Dynamic Model and Its Mean Stability Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhanhui Lu
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Based on the deterministic dynamic model of electricity market proposed by Alvarado, a stochastic electricity market model, considering the random nature of demand sides, is presented in this paper on the assumption that generator cost function and consumer utility function are quadratic functions. The stochastic electricity market model is a generalization of the deterministic dynamic model. Using the theory of stochastic differential equations, stochastic process theory, and eigenvalue techniques, the determining conditions of the mean stability for this electricity market model under small Gauss type random excitation are provided and testified theoretically. That is, if the demand elasticity of suppliers is nonnegative and the demand elasticity of consumers is negative, then the stochastic electricity market model is mean stable. It implies that the stability can be judged directly by initial data without any computation. Taking deterministic electricity market data combined with small Gauss type random excitation as numerical samples to interpret random phenomena from a statistical perspective, the results indicate the conclusions above are correct, valid, and practical.
An electricity generation planning model incorporating demand response
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Choi, Dong Gu; Thomas, Valerie M.
2012-01-01
Energy policies that aim to reduce carbon emissions and change the mix of electricity generation sources, such as carbon cap-and-trade systems and renewable electricity standards, can affect not only the source of electricity generation, but also the price of electricity and, consequently, demand. We develop an optimization model to determine the lowest cost investment and operation plan for the generating capacity of an electric power system. The model incorporates demand response to price change. In a case study for a U.S. state, we show the price, demand, and generation mix implications of a renewable electricity standard, and of a carbon cap-and-trade policy with and without initial free allocation of carbon allowances. This study shows that both the demand moderating effects and the generation mix changing effects of the policies can be the sources of carbon emissions reductions, and also shows that the share of the sources could differ with different policy designs. The case study provides different results when demand elasticity is excluded, underscoring the importance of incorporating demand response in the evaluation of electricity generation policies. - Highlights: ► We develop an electric power system optimization model including demand elasticity. ► Both renewable electricity and carbon cap-and-trade policies can moderate demand. ► Both policies affect the generation mix, price, and demand for electricity. ► Moderated demand can be a significant source of carbon emission reduction. ► For cap-and-trade policies, initial free allowances change outcomes significantly.
Parameter estimation of electricity spot models from futures prices
Aihara, ShinIchi; Bagchi, Arunabha; Imreizeeq, E.S.N.; Walter, E.
We consider a slight perturbation of the Schwartz-Smith model for the electricity futures prices and the resulting modified spot model. Using the martingale property of the modified price under the risk neutral measure, we derive the arbitrage free model for the spot and futures prices. We estimate
Modeling and forecasting of electrical power demands for capacity planning
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Al-Shobaki, S.; Mohsen, M.
2007-01-01
Jordan imports oil from neighboring countries for use in power production. As such, the cost of electricity production is high compared to oil producing countries. It is anticipated that Jordan will face major challenges in trying to meet the growing energy and electricity demands while also developing the energy sector in a way that reduces any adverse impacts on the economy, the environment and social life. This paper described the development of forecasting models to predict future generation and sales loads of electrical power in Jordan. Two models that could be used for the prediction of electrical energy demand in Amman, Jordan were developed and validated. An analysis of the data was also presented. The first model was based on the levels of energy generated by the National Electric Power Company (NEPCO) and the other was based on the levels of energy sold by the company in the same area. The models were compared and the percent error was presented. Energy demand was also forecasted across the next 60 months for both models. Results were then compared with the output of the in-house forecast model used by NEPCO to predict the levels of generated energy needed across the 60 months time period. It was concluded that the NEPCO model predicted energy demand higher than the validated generated data model by an average of 5.25 per cent. 8 refs., 5 tabs., 15 figs
Modeling and forecasting of electrical power demands for capacity planning
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Al-Shobaki, S. [Hashemite Univ., Zarka (Jordan). Dept. of Industrial Engineering; Mohsen, M. [Hashemite Univ., Zarka (Jordan). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering
2007-07-01
Jordan imports oil from neighboring countries for use in power production. As such, the cost of electricity production is high compared to oil producing countries. It is anticipated that Jordan will face major challenges in trying to meet the growing energy and electricity demands while also developing the energy sector in a way that reduces any adverse impacts on the economy, the environment and social life. This paper described the development of forecasting models to predict future generation and sales loads of electrical power in Jordan. Two models that could be used for the prediction of electrical energy demand in Amman, Jordan were developed and validated. An analysis of the data was also presented. The first model was based on the levels of energy generated by the National Electric Power Company (NEPCO) and the other was based on the levels of energy sold by the company in the same area. The models were compared and the percent error was presented. Energy demand was also forecasted across the next 60 months for both models. Results were then compared with the output of the in-house forecast model used by NEPCO to predict the levels of generated energy needed across the 60 months time period. It was concluded that the NEPCO model predicted energy demand higher than the validated generated data model by an average of 5.25 per cent. 8 refs., 5 tabs., 15 figs.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Keita Honjo
Full Text Available After the severe nuclear disaster in Fukushima, which was triggered by the Great East Japan earthquake in March 2011, nuclear power plants in Japan were temporarily shut down for mandatory inspections. To prevent large-scale blackouts, the Japanese government requested companies and households to reduce electricity consumption in summer and winter. It is reported that the domestic electricity demand had a structural decrease because of the electricity conservation effect (ECE. However, quantitative analysis of the ECE is not sufficient, and especially time variation of the ECE remains unclear. Understanding the ECE is important because Japan's NDC (nationally determined contribution assumes the reduction of CO2 emissions through aggressive energy conservation. In this study, we develop a time series model of monthly electricity demand in Japan and estimate time variation of the ECE. Moreover, we evaluate the impact of electricity conservation on CO2 emissions from power plants. The dynamic linear model is used to separate the ECE from the effects of other irrelevant factors (e.g. air temperature, economic production, and electricity price. Our result clearly shows that consumers' electricity conservation behavior after the earthquake was not temporary but became established as a habit. Between March 2011 and March 2016, the ECE on industrial electricity demand ranged from 3.9% to 5.4%, and the ECE on residential electricity demand ranged from 1.6% to 7.6%. The ECE on the total electricity demand was estimated at 3.2%-6.0%. We found a seasonal pattern that the residential ECE in summer is higher than that in winter. The emissions increase from the shutdown of nuclear power plants was mitigated by electricity conservation. The emissions reduction effect was estimated at 0.82 MtCO2-2.26 MtCO2 (-4.5% on average compared to the zero-ECE case. The time-varying ECE is necessary for predicting Japan's electricity demand and CO2 emissions after the
Shiraki, Hiroto; Ashina, Shuichi
2018-01-01
After the severe nuclear disaster in Fukushima, which was triggered by the Great East Japan earthquake in March 2011, nuclear power plants in Japan were temporarily shut down for mandatory inspections. To prevent large-scale blackouts, the Japanese government requested companies and households to reduce electricity consumption in summer and winter. It is reported that the domestic electricity demand had a structural decrease because of the electricity conservation effect (ECE). However, quantitative analysis of the ECE is not sufficient, and especially time variation of the ECE remains unclear. Understanding the ECE is important because Japan’s NDC (nationally determined contribution) assumes the reduction of CO2 emissions through aggressive energy conservation. In this study, we develop a time series model of monthly electricity demand in Japan and estimate time variation of the ECE. Moreover, we evaluate the impact of electricity conservation on CO2 emissions from power plants. The dynamic linear model is used to separate the ECE from the effects of other irrelevant factors (e.g. air temperature, economic production, and electricity price). Our result clearly shows that consumers’ electricity conservation behavior after the earthquake was not temporary but became established as a habit. Between March 2011 and March 2016, the ECE on industrial electricity demand ranged from 3.9% to 5.4%, and the ECE on residential electricity demand ranged from 1.6% to 7.6%. The ECE on the total electricity demand was estimated at 3.2%–6.0%. We found a seasonal pattern that the residential ECE in summer is higher than that in winter. The emissions increase from the shutdown of nuclear power plants was mitigated by electricity conservation. The emissions reduction effect was estimated at 0.82 MtCO2–2.26 MtCO2 (−4.5% on average compared to the zero-ECE case). The time-varying ECE is necessary for predicting Japan’s electricity demand and CO2 emissions after the
Electricity market models and RES integration: The Greek case
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Simoglou, Christos K.; Biskas, Pandelis N.; Vagropoulos, Stylianos I.; Bakirtzis, Anastasios G.
2014-01-01
This paper presents an extensive analysis of the Greek electricity market for the next 7-year period (2014–2020) based on an hour-by-hour simulation considering five different RES technologies, namely wind, PV, small hydro, biomass and CHP with emphasis on PV integration. The impact of RES penetration on the electricity market operation is evaluated under two different models regarding the organization of the Greek wholesale day-ahead electricity market: a mandatory power pool for year 2014 (current market design) and a power exchange for the period 2015–2020 (Target Model). An integrated software tool is used for the simulation of the current and the future day-ahead market clearing algorithm of the Greek wholesale electricity market. Simulation results indicate the impact of the anticipated large-scale RES integration, in conjunction with each market model, on specific indicators of the Greek electricity market in the long-term. - Highlights: • Analysis of the Greek electricity market for the next 7-year period (2014–2020) based on hour-by-hour simulation. • Five different RES technologies are considered with emphasis on PV integration. • A power pool (for 2014) and a power exchange (for 2015–2020) are considered. • Various market indicators are used for the analysis of the impact of the RES integration on the Greek electricity market. • Two alternative tariff schemes for the compensation of the new ground-mounted PV units from 2015 onwards are investigated
Modelling the electrical properties of concrete for shielding effectiveness prediction
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sandrolini, L; Reggiani, U; Ogunsola, A
2007-01-01
Concrete is a porous, heterogeneous material whose abundant use in numerous applications demands a detailed understanding of its electrical properties. Besides experimental measurements, material theoretical models can be useful to investigate its behaviour with respect to frequency, moisture content or other factors. These models can be used in electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) to predict the shielding effectiveness of a concrete structure against external electromagnetic waves. This paper presents the development of a dispersive material model for concrete out of experimental measurement data to take account of the frequency dependence of concrete's electrical properties. The model is implemented into a numerical simulator and compared with the classical transmission-line approach in shielding effectiveness calculations of simple concrete walls of different moisture content. The comparative results show good agreement in all cases; a possible relation between shielding effectiveness and the electrical properties of concrete and the limits of the proposed model are discussed
A Comparison of Dynamics in Two Models for the Spread of a Vector-Borne Disease
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Græsbøll, Kaare; Sumner, T.; Enøe, Claes
2016-01-01
In 2007, bluetongue virus (BTV) was introduced to both Denmark (DK) and the United Kingdom (UK). For this reason, simulation models were built to predict scenarios for future incursions. The DK and UK models have a common description of within-herd dynamics, but differ greatly in their descriptio...... sensitivity to the level of vaccine uptake and has lower variability compared with a kernel-based model. However, a model using a transmission kernel requires less detailed data and is often faster....
Digital Model of Railway Electric Traction Lines
Garg, Rachana; Mahajan, Priya; Kumar, Parmod
2017-08-01
The characteristic impedance and propagation constant define the behavior of signal propagation over the transmission lines. The digital model for railway traction lines which includes railway tracks is developed, using curve fitting technique in MATLAB. The sensitivity of this model has been computed with respect to frequency. The digital sensitivity values are compared with the values of analog sensitivity. The developed model is useful for digital protection, integrated operation, control and planning of the system.
E-laboratories : agent-based modeling of electricity markets
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
North, M.; Conzelmann, G.; Koritarov, V.; Macal, C.; Thimmapuram, P.; Veselka, T.
2002-01-01
Electricity markets are complex adaptive systems that operate under a wide range of rules that span a variety of time scales. These rules are imposed both from above by society and below by physics. Many electricity markets are undergoing or are about to undergo a transition from centrally regulated systems to decentralized markets. Furthermore, several electricity markets have recently undergone this transition with extremely unsatisfactory results, most notably in California. These high stakes transitions require the introduction of largely untested regulatory structures. Suitable laboratories that can be used to test regulatory structures before they are applied to real systems are needed. Agent-based models can provide such electronic laboratories or ''e-laboratories.'' To better understand the requirements of an electricity market e-laboratory, a live electricity market simulation was created. This experience helped to shape the development of the Electricity Market Complex Adaptive Systems (EMCAS) model. To explore EMCAS' potential as an e-laboratory, several variations of the live simulation were created. These variations probed the possible effects of changing power plant outages and price setting rules on electricity market prices
Kloet, Serieke; Cobelens, Frank; Bootsma, Martin
2018-01-01
While tuberculosis (TB) represents a significant disease burden worldwide, low-incidence countries strive to reach the WHO target of pre-elimination by 2035. Screening for TB in immigrants is an important component of the strategy to reduce the TB burden in low-incidence settings. An important option is the screening and preventive treatment of latent TB infection (LTBI). Whether this policy is worthwhile depends on the extent of transmission within the country, and introduction of new cases through import. Mathematical transmission models of TB have been used to identify key parameters in the epidemiology of TB and estimate transmission rates. An important application has also been to investigate the consequences of policy scenarios. Here, we formulate a mathematical model for TB transmission within the Netherlands to estimate the size of the pool of latent infections, and to determine the share of importation–either through immigration or travel- versus transmission within the Netherlands. We take into account importation of infections due to immigration, and travel to the country of origin, focusing on the three ethnicities most represented among foreign-born TB cases (after exclusion of those overrepresented among asylum seekers): Moroccans, Turkish and Indonesians. We fit a system of ordinary differential equations to the data from the Netherlands Tuberculosis Registry on (extra-)pulmonary TB cases from 1995–2013. We estimate that about 27% of Moroccans, 25% of Indonesians, and 16% of Turkish, are latently infected. Furthermore, we find that for all three foreign-born communities, immigration is the most important source of LTBI, but the extent of within-country transmission is much lower (about half) for the Turkish and Indonesian communities than for the Moroccan. This would imply that contact investigation would have a greater yield in the latter community than in the former. Travel remains a minor factor contributing LTBI, suggesting that targeting
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hester Korthals Altes
Full Text Available While tuberculosis (TB represents a significant disease burden worldwide, low-incidence countries strive to reach the WHO target of pre-elimination by 2035. Screening for TB in immigrants is an important component of the strategy to reduce the TB burden in low-incidence settings. An important option is the screening and preventive treatment of latent TB infection (LTBI. Whether this policy is worthwhile depends on the extent of transmission within the country, and introduction of new cases through import. Mathematical transmission models of TB have been used to identify key parameters in the epidemiology of TB and estimate transmission rates. An important application has also been to investigate the consequences of policy scenarios. Here, we formulate a mathematical model for TB transmission within the Netherlands to estimate the size of the pool of latent infections, and to determine the share of importation-either through immigration or travel- versus transmission within the Netherlands. We take into account importation of infections due to immigration, and travel to the country of origin, focusing on the three ethnicities most represented among foreign-born TB cases (after exclusion of those overrepresented among asylum seekers: Moroccans, Turkish and Indonesians. We fit a system of ordinary differential equations to the data from the Netherlands Tuberculosis Registry on (extra-pulmonary TB cases from 1995-2013. We estimate that about 27% of Moroccans, 25% of Indonesians, and 16% of Turkish, are latently infected. Furthermore, we find that for all three foreign-born communities, immigration is the most important source of LTBI, but the extent of within-country transmission is much lower (about half for the Turkish and Indonesian communities than for the Moroccan. This would imply that contact investigation would have a greater yield in the latter community than in the former. Travel remains a minor factor contributing LTBI, suggesting that
Korthals Altes, Hester; Kloet, Serieke; Cobelens, Frank; Bootsma, Martin
2018-01-01
While tuberculosis (TB) represents a significant disease burden worldwide, low-incidence countries strive to reach the WHO target of pre-elimination by 2035. Screening for TB in immigrants is an important component of the strategy to reduce the TB burden in low-incidence settings. An important option is the screening and preventive treatment of latent TB infection (LTBI). Whether this policy is worthwhile depends on the extent of transmission within the country, and introduction of new cases through import. Mathematical transmission models of TB have been used to identify key parameters in the epidemiology of TB and estimate transmission rates. An important application has also been to investigate the consequences of policy scenarios. Here, we formulate a mathematical model for TB transmission within the Netherlands to estimate the size of the pool of latent infections, and to determine the share of importation-either through immigration or travel- versus transmission within the Netherlands. We take into account importation of infections due to immigration, and travel to the country of origin, focusing on the three ethnicities most represented among foreign-born TB cases (after exclusion of those overrepresented among asylum seekers): Moroccans, Turkish and Indonesians. We fit a system of ordinary differential equations to the data from the Netherlands Tuberculosis Registry on (extra-)pulmonary TB cases from 1995-2013. We estimate that about 27% of Moroccans, 25% of Indonesians, and 16% of Turkish, are latently infected. Furthermore, we find that for all three foreign-born communities, immigration is the most important source of LTBI, but the extent of within-country transmission is much lower (about half) for the Turkish and Indonesian communities than for the Moroccan. This would imply that contact investigation would have a greater yield in the latter community than in the former. Travel remains a minor factor contributing LTBI, suggesting that targeting
Modelling electricity futures prices using seasonal path-dependent volatility
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fanelli, Viviana; Maddalena, Lucia; Musti, Silvana
2016-01-01
Highlights: • A no-arbitrage term structure model is applied to the electricity market. • Volatility parameters of the HJM model are estimated by using German data. • The model captures the seasonal price behaviour. • Electricity futures prices are forecasted. • Call options are evaluated according to different strike prices. - Abstract: The liberalization of electricity markets gave rise to new patterns of futures prices and the need of models that could efficiently describe price dynamics grew exponentially, in order to improve decision making for all of the agents involved in energy issues. Although there are papers focused on modelling electricity as a flow commodity by using Heath et al. (1992) approach in order to price futures contracts, the literature is scarce on attempts to consider a seasonal volatility as input to models. In this paper, we propose a futures price model that allows looking into observed stylized facts in the electricity market, in particular stochastic price variability, and periodic behavior. We consider a seasonal path-dependent volatility for futures returns that are modelled in Heath et al. (1992) framework and we obtain the dynamics of futures prices. We use these series to price the underlying asset of a call option in a risk management perspective. We test the model on the German electricity market, and we find that it is accurate in futures and option value estimates. In addition, the obtained results and the proposed methodology can be useful as a starting point for risk management or portfolio optimization under uncertainty in the current context of energy markets.
Fractional calculus model of electrical impedance applied to human skin.
Vosika, Zoran B; Lazovic, Goran M; Misevic, Gradimir N; Simic-Krstic, Jovana B
2013-01-01
Fractional calculus is a mathematical approach dealing with derivatives and integrals of arbitrary and complex orders. Therefore, it adds a new dimension to understand and describe basic nature and behavior of complex systems in an improved way. Here we use the fractional calculus for modeling electrical properties of biological systems. We derived a new class of generalized models for electrical impedance and applied them to human skin by experimental data fitting. The primary model introduces new generalizations of: 1) Weyl fractional derivative operator, 2) Cole equation, and 3) Constant Phase Element (CPE). These generalizations were described by the novel equation which presented parameter [Formula: see text] related to remnant memory and corrected four essential parameters [Formula: see text] We further generalized single generalized element by introducing specific partial sum of Maclaurin series determined by parameters [Formula: see text] We defined individual primary model elements and their serial combination models by the appropriate equations and electrical schemes. Cole equation is a special case of our generalized class of models for[Formula: see text] Previous bioimpedance data analyses of living systems using basic Cole and serial Cole models show significant imprecisions. Our new class of models considerably improves the quality of fitting, evaluated by mean square errors, for bioimpedance data obtained from human skin. Our models with new parameters presented in specific partial sum of Maclaurin series also extend representation, understanding and description of complex systems electrical properties in terms of remnant memory effects.
Fractional calculus model of electrical impedance applied to human skin.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zoran B Vosika
Full Text Available Fractional calculus is a mathematical approach dealing with derivatives and integrals of arbitrary and complex orders. Therefore, it adds a new dimension to understand and describe basic nature and behavior of complex systems in an improved way. Here we use the fractional calculus for modeling electrical properties of biological systems. We derived a new class of generalized models for electrical impedance and applied them to human skin by experimental data fitting. The primary model introduces new generalizations of: 1 Weyl fractional derivative operator, 2 Cole equation, and 3 Constant Phase Element (CPE. These generalizations were described by the novel equation which presented parameter [Formula: see text] related to remnant memory and corrected four essential parameters [Formula: see text] We further generalized single generalized element by introducing specific partial sum of Maclaurin series determined by parameters [Formula: see text] We defined individual primary model elements and their serial combination models by the appropriate equations and electrical schemes. Cole equation is a special case of our generalized class of models for[Formula: see text] Previous bioimpedance data analyses of living systems using basic Cole and serial Cole models show significant imprecisions. Our new class of models considerably improves the quality of fitting, evaluated by mean square errors, for bioimpedance data obtained from human skin. Our models with new parameters presented in specific partial sum of Maclaurin series also extend representation, understanding and description of complex systems electrical properties in terms of remnant memory effects.
A network model for electrical transport in sea ice
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhu, J.; Golden, K.M.; Gully, A.; Sampson, C.
2010-01-01
Monitoring the thickness of sea ice is an important tool in assessing the impact of global warming on Earth's polar regions, and most methods of measuring ice thickness depend on detailed knowledge of its electrical properties. We develop a network model for the electrical conductivity of sea ice, which incorporates statistical measurements of the brine microstructure. The numerical simulations are in close agreement with direct measurements we made in Antarctica on the vertical conductivity of first year sea ice.
3D Modeling of Electric Fields in the LUX Detector
LUX Collaboration; Akerib, D. S.; Alsum, S.; Araújo, H. M.; Bai, X.; Bailey, A. J.; Balajthy, J.; Beltrame, P.; Bernard, E. P.; Bernstein, A.; Biesiadzinski, T. P.; Boulton, E. M.; Brás, P.; Byram, D.; Cahn, S. B.
2017-01-01
This work details the development of a three-dimensional (3D) electric field model for the LUX detector. The detector took data during two periods of searching for weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP) searches. After the first period completed, a time-varying non-uniform negative charge developed in the polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) panels that define the radial boundary of the detector's active volume. This caused electric field variations in the detector in time, depth and azimuth, g...
3D modeling of electric fields in the LUX detector
Akerib, DS; Alsum, S; Araújo, HM; Bai, X; Bailey, AJ; Balajthy, J; Beltrame, P; Bernard, EP; Bernstein, A; Biesiadzinski, TP; Boulton, EM; Brás, P; Byram, D; Cahn, SB; Carmona-Benitez, MC
2017-01-01
© 2017 IOP Publishing Ltd and Sissa Medialab. This work details the development of a three-dimensional (3D) electric field model for the LUX detector. The detector took data to search for weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs) during two periods. After the first period completed, a time-varying non-uniform negative charge developed in the polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) panels that define the radial boundary of the detector's active volume. This caused electric field variations in the de...
New business models for electric cars-A holistic approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kley, Fabian; Lerch, Christian; Dallinger, David
2011-01-01
Climate change and global resource shortages have led to rethinking traditional individual mobility services based on combustion engines. As the consequence of technological improvements, the first electric vehicles are now being introduced and greater market penetration can be expected. But any wider implementation of battery-powered electrical propulsion systems in the future will give rise to new challenges for both the traditional automotive industry and other new players, e.g. battery manufacturers, the power supply industry and other service providers. Different application cases of electric vehicles are currently being discussed which means that numerous business models could emerge, leading to new shares in value creation and involving new players. Consequently, individual stakeholders are uncertain about which business models are really effective with regard to targeting a profitable overall concept. Therefore, this paper aims to define a holistic approach to developing business models for electric mobility, which analyzes the system as a whole on the one hand and provides decision support for affected enterprises on the other. To do so, the basic elements of electric mobility are considered and topical approaches to business models for various stakeholders are discussed. The paper concludes by presenting a systemic instrument for business models based on morphological methods. - Highlights: → We present a systemic instrument to analyze business models for electric vehicles. → Provide decision support for an enterprises dealing with electric vehicle innovations. → Combine business aspects of the triad between vehicles concepts, infrastructure as well as system integration. → In the market, activities in all domains have been initiated, but often with undefined or unclear structures.
Métris, Aline; George, Susie M; Ropers, Delphine
2017-01-02
Addition of salt to food is one of the most ancient and most common methods of food preservation. However, little is known of how bacterial cells adapt to such conditions. We propose to use piecewise linear approximations to model the regulatory adaptation of Escherichiacoli to osmotic stress. We apply the method to eight selected genes representing the functions known to be at play during osmotic adaptation. The network is centred on the general stress response factor, sigma S, and also includes a module representing the catabolic repressor CRP-cAMP. Glutamate, potassium and supercoiling are combined to represent the intracellular regulatory signal during osmotic stress induced by salt. The output is a module where growth is represented by the concentration of stable RNAs and the transcription of the osmotic gene osmY. The time course of gene expression of transport of osmoprotectant represented by the symporter proP and of the osmY is successfully reproduced by the network. The behaviour of the rpoS mutant predicted by the model is in agreement with experimental data. We discuss the application of the model to food-borne pathogens such as Salmonella; although the genes considered have orthologs, it seems that supercoiling is not regulated in the same way. The model is limited to a few selected genes, but the regulatory interactions are numerous and span different time scales. In addition, they seem to be condition specific: the links that are important during the transition from exponential to stationary phase are not all needed during osmotic stress. This model is one of the first steps towards modelling adaptation to stress in food safety and has scope to be extended to other genes and pathways, other stresses relevant to the food industry, and food-borne pathogens. The method offers a good compromise between systems of ordinary differential equations, which would be unmanageable because of the size of the system and for which insufficient data are available
Born to Burnout: A Meta-Analytic Path Model of Personality, Job Burnout, and Work Outcomes
Swider, Brian W.; Zimmerman, Ryan D.
2010-01-01
We quantitatively summarized the relationship between Five-Factor Model personality traits, job burnout dimensions (emotional exhaustion, depersonalization, and personal accomplishment), and absenteeism, turnover, and job performance. All five of the Five-Factor Model personality traits had multiple true score correlations of 0.57 with emotional…
An agent-based model for diffusion of electric vehicles
Kangur, A.; Bockarjova, M.; Jager, W.; Verbrugge, R.
2017-01-01
The transition from fuel cars to electric cars is a large-scale process involving many interactions between consumers and other stakeholders over decades. To explore how policies may interfere with consumer behavior over such a long time period, we developed a social simulation model. In this model,
Fuzzy modeling of electrical impedance tomography images of the lungs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tanaka, Harki; Ortega, Neli Regina Siqueira; Galizia, Mauricio Stanzione; Borges, Joao Batista; Amato, Marcelo Britto Passos
2008-01-01
Objectives: Aiming to improve the anatomical resolution of electrical impedance tomography images, we developed a fuzzy model based on electrical impedance tomography's high temporal resolution and on the functional pulmonary signals of perfusion and ventilation. Introduction: Electrical impedance tomography images carry information about both ventilation and perfusion. However, these images are difficult to interpret because of insufficient anatomical resolution, such that it becomes almost impossible to distinguish the heart from the lungs. Methods: Electrical impedance tomography data from an experimental animal model were collected during normal ventilation and apnoea while an injection of hypertonic saline was administered. The fuzzy model was elaborated in three parts: a modeling of the heart, the pulmonary ventilation map and the pulmonary perfusion map. Image segmentation was performed using a threshold method, and a ventilation/perfusion map was generated. Results: Electrical impedance tomography images treated by the fuzzy model were compared with the hypertonic saline injection method and computed tomography scan images, presenting good results. The average accuracy index was 0.80 when comparing the fuzzy modeled lung maps and the computed tomography scan lung mask. The average ROC curve area comparing a saline injection image and a fuzzy modeled pulmonary perfusion image was 0.77. Discussion: The innovative aspects of our work are the use of temporal information for the delineation of the heart structure and the use of two pulmonary functions for lung structure delineation. However, robustness of the method should be tested for the imaging of abnormal lung conditions. Conclusions: These results showed the adequacy of the fuzzy approach in treating the anatomical resolution uncertainties in electrical impedance tomography images. (author)
MODELING CONTROLLED ASYNCHRONOUS ELECTRIC DRIVES WITH MATCHING REDUCERS AND TRANSFORMERS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
V. S. Petrushin
2015-04-01
Full Text Available Purpose. Working out of mathematical models of the speed-controlled induction electric drives ensuring joint consideration of transformers, motors and loadings, and also matching reducers and transformers, both in static, and in dynamic regimes for the analysis of their operating characteristics. Methodology. At mathematical modelling are considered functional, mass, dimensional and cost indexes of reducers and transformers that allows observing engineering and economic aspects of speed-controlled induction electric drives. The mathematical models used for examination of the transitive electromagnetic and electromechanical processes, are grounded on systems of nonlinear differential equations with nonlinear coefficients (parameters of equivalent circuits of motors, varying in each operating point, including owing to appearances of saturation of magnetic system and current displacement in a winding of a rotor of an induction motor. For the purpose of raise of level of adequacy of models a magnetic circuit iron, additional and mechanical losses are considered. Results. Modelling of the several speed-controlled induction electric drives, different by components, but working on a loading equal on character, magnitude and a demanded control range is executed. At use of characteristic families including mechanical, at various parameters of regulating on which performances of the load mechanism are superimposed, the adjusting characteristics representing dependences of a modification of electrical, energy and thermal magnitudes from an angular speed of motors are gained. Originality. The offered complex models of speed-controlled induction electric drives with matching reducers and transformers, give the chance to realize well-founded sampling of components of drives. They also can be used as the design models by working out of speed-controlled induction motors. Practical value. Operating characteristics of various speed-controlled induction electric
On the Helix Propensity in Generalized Born Solvent Descriptions of Modeling the Dark Proteome
2017-01-10
benchmarks of conformational sampling methods and their all-atom force fields plus solvent descriptions to accurately model structural transitions on a...mol·Å2). The utilities and programming libraries of the Multiscale Modeling Tools for Structural Biology (MMTSB) (Feig et al., 2004) were used to...extensively benchmarked with the CHARMM22 force field, this force field was applied with the CMAP backbone dihedral cross-term extension (Mackerell
Droplet-model electric dipole moments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Myers, W.D.; Swiatecki, W.J.
1991-01-01
Denisov's recent criticism of the droplet-model formula for the dipole moment of a deformed nucleus as derived by Dorso et al., it shown to be invalid. This helps to clarify the relation of theory to the measured dipole moments, as discussed in the review article by Aberg et al. (orig.)
On the electric field model for an open magnetosphere
Wang, Zhi; Ashour-Abdalla, Maha; Walker, Raymond J.
1993-01-01
We have developed a new canonical separator line type magnetospheric magnetic field and electric field model for use in magnetospheric calculations, we determine the magnetic and electric field by controlling the reconnection rate at the subsolar magnetopause. The model is applicable only for purely southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). We have obtained a more realistic magnetotail configuration by applying a stretch transformation to an axially symmetric field solution. We also discuss the Stern singularity in which there is an electric field singlarity in the canonical separate line models for B(sub y) not = to 0 by using a new technique that solves for the electric field along a field line directly instead of determining it by a potential mapping. The singularity not only causes an infinite electric field on the polar cap, but also causes the boundary conditions at plus infinity and minus infinity in the solar wind to contradict each other. This means that the canonical separator line models do not represent the open magnetosphere well, except for the case of purely southward IMF.
Electricity pricing model in thermal generating stations under deregulation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reji, P.; Ashok, S.; Moideenkutty, K.M.
2007-01-01
In regulated public utilities with competitive power markets, deregulation has replaced the monopoly. Under the deregulated power market, the electricity price primarily depends on market mechanism and power demand. In this market, generators generally follow marginal pricing. Each generator fixes the electricity price based on their pricing strategy and it leads to more price volatility. This paper proposed a model to determine the electricity price considering all operational constraints of the plant and economic variables that influenced the price, for a thermal generating station under deregulation. The purpose of the model was to assist existing stations, investors in the power sector, regulatory authorities, transmission utilities, and new power generators in decision-making. The model could accommodate price volatility in the market and was based on performance incentive/penalty considering plant load factor, availability of the plant and peak/ off peak demand. The model was applied as a case study to a typical thermal utility in India to determine the electricity price. It was concluded that the case study of a thermal generating station in a deregulated environment showed that the electricity price mainly depended on the gross calorific value (GCV) of fuel, mode of operation, price of the fuel, and operating charges. 11 refs., 2 tabs., 1 fig
3D modeling of electric fields in the LUX detector
Akerib, D. S.; Alsum, S.; Araújo, H. M.; Bai, X.; Bailey, A. J.; Balajthy, J.; Beltrame, P.; Bernard, E. P.; Bernstein, A.; Biesiadzinski, T. P.; Boulton, E. M.; Brás, P.; Byram, D.; Cahn, S. B.; Carmona-Benitez, M. C.; Chan, C.; Currie, A.; Cutter, J. E.; Davison, T. J. R.; Dobi, A.; Druszkiewicz, E.; Edwards, B. N.; Fallon, S. R.; Fan, A.; Fiorucci, S.; Gaitskell, R. J.; Genovesi, J.; Ghag, C.; Gilchriese, M. G. D.; Hall, C. R.; Hanhardt, M.; Haselschwardt, S. J.; Hertel, S. A.; Hogan, D. P.; Horn, M.; Huang, D. Q.; Ignarra, C. M.; Jacobsen, R. G.; Ji, W.; Kamdin, K.; Kazkaz, K.; Khaitan, D.; Knoche, R.; Larsen, N. A.; Lenardo, B. G.; Lesko, K. T.; Lindote, A.; Lopes, M. I.; Manalaysay, A.; Mannino, R. L.; Marzioni, M. F.; McKinsey, D. N.; Mei, D.-M.; Mock, J.; Moongweluwan, M.; Morad, J. A.; Murphy, A. St. J.; Nehrkorn, C.; Nelson, H. N.; Neves, F.; O'Sullivan, K.; Oliver-Mallory, K. C.; Palladino, K. J.; Pease, E. K.; Rhyne, C.; Shaw, S.; Shutt, T. A.; Silva, C.; Solmaz, M.; Solovov, V. N.; Sorensen, P.; Sumner, T. J.; Szydagis, M.; Taylor, D. J.; Taylor, W. C.; Tennyson, B. P.; Terman, P. A.; Tiedt, D. R.; To, W. H.; Tripathi, M.; Tvrznikova, L.; Uvarov, S.; Velan, V.; Verbus, J. R.; Webb, R. C.; White, J. T.; Whitis, T. J.; Witherell, M. S.; Wolfs, F. L. H.; Xu, J.; Yazdani, K.; Young, S. K.; Zhang, C.
2017-11-01
This work details the development of a three-dimensional (3D) electric field model for the LUX detector. The detector took data to search for weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs) during two periods. After the first period completed, a time-varying non-uniform negative charge developed in the polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) panels that define the radial boundary of the detector's active volume. This caused electric field variations in the detector in time, depth and azimuth, generating an electrostatic radially-inward force on electrons on their way upward to the liquid surface. To map this behavior, 3D electric field maps of the detector's active volume were generated on a monthly basis. This was done by fitting a model built in COMSOL Multiphysics to the uniformly distributed calibration data that were collected on a regular basis. The modeled average PTFE charge density increased over the course of the exposure from -3.6 to -5.5 μC/m2. From our studies, we deduce that the electric field magnitude varied locally while the mean value of the field of ~200 V/cm remained constant throughout the exposure. As a result of this work the varying electric fields and their impact on event reconstruction and discrimination were successfully modeled.
Machine learning based switching model for electricity load forecasting
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fan, Shu; Lee, Wei-Jen [Energy Systems Research Center, The University of Texas at Arlington, 416 S. College Street, Arlington, TX 76019 (United States); Chen, Luonan [Department of Electronics, Information and Communication Engineering, Osaka Sangyo University, 3-1-1 Nakagaito, Daito, Osaka 574-0013 (Japan)
2008-06-15
In deregulated power markets, forecasting electricity loads is one of the most essential tasks for system planning, operation and decision making. Based on an integration of two machine learning techniques: Bayesian clustering by dynamics (BCD) and support vector regression (SVR), this paper proposes a novel forecasting model for day ahead electricity load forecasting. The proposed model adopts an integrated architecture to handle the non-stationarity of time series. Firstly, a BCD classifier is applied to cluster the input data set into several subsets by the dynamics of the time series in an unsupervised manner. Then, groups of SVRs are used to fit the training data of each subset in a supervised way. The effectiveness of the proposed model is demonstrated with actual data taken from the New York ISO and the Western Farmers Electric Cooperative in Oklahoma. (author)
Machine learning based switching model for electricity load forecasting
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fan Shu [Energy Systems Research Center, University of Texas at Arlington, 416 S. College Street, Arlington, TX 76019 (United States); Chen Luonan [Department of Electronics, Information and Communication Engineering, Osaka Sangyo University, 3-1-1 Nakagaito, Daito, Osaka 574-0013 (Japan); Lee, Weijen [Energy Systems Research Center, University of Texas at Arlington, 416 S. College Street, Arlington, TX 76019 (United States)], E-mail: wlee@uta.edu
2008-06-15
In deregulated power markets, forecasting electricity loads is one of the most essential tasks for system planning, operation and decision making. Based on an integration of two machine learning techniques: Bayesian clustering by dynamics (BCD) and support vector regression (SVR), this paper proposes a novel forecasting model for day ahead electricity load forecasting. The proposed model adopts an integrated architecture to handle the non-stationarity of time series. Firstly, a BCD classifier is applied to cluster the input data set into several subsets by the dynamics of the time series in an unsupervised manner. Then, groups of SVRs are used to fit the training data of each subset in a supervised way. The effectiveness of the proposed model is demonstrated with actual data taken from the New York ISO and the Western Farmers Electric Cooperative in Oklahoma.
Electrical Characterization and Modeling of a Gelatin/Graphene System
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Giovanni Landi
2015-01-01
Full Text Available A gelatin/graphene composite has been analyzed by means of current density-voltage and the electrical impedance measurements. The DC electrical behavior has been interpreted in terms of an equivalent Thévenin model taking into account the open circuit voltage and the series resistance. A model based on the effect of the electrical double layer and on the diffusion of the charge carriers is used for the analysis of the experimental data, obtained in the frequency domain. The model reveals for any applied voltages a marked diffusion process at low frequencies. In particular, where the charge transfer mechanism is dominant, the time distribution of the reaction rates reveals that several multiple step reactions occur in the materials, especially at high values of the applied forward bias voltages.
Mathematical modeling of electrical activity of uterine muscle cells.
Rihana, Sandy; Terrien, Jeremy; Germain, Guy; Marque, Catherine
2009-06-01
The uterine electrical activity is an efficient parameter to study the uterine contractility. In order to understand the ionic mechanisms responsible for its generation, we aimed at building a mathematical model of the uterine cell electrical activity based upon the physiological mechanisms. First, based on the voltage clamp experiments found in the literature, we focus on the principal ionic channels and their cognate currents involved in the generation of this electrical activity. Second, we provide the methodology of formulations of uterine ionic currents derived from a wide range of electrophysiological data. The model is validated step by step by comparing simulated voltage-clamp results with the experimental ones. The model reproduces successfully the generation of single spikes or trains of action potentials that fit with the experimental data. It allows analyzing ionic channels implications. Likewise, the calcium-dependent conductance influences significantly the cellular oscillatory behavior.
An Optimal Electric Dipole Antenna Model and Its Field Propagation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yidong Xu
2016-01-01
Full Text Available An optimal electric dipole antennas model is presented and analyzed, based on the hemispherical grounding equivalent model and the superposition principle. The paper also presents a full-wave electromagnetic simulation for the electromagnetic field propagation in layered conducting medium, which is excited by the horizontal electric dipole antennas. Optimum frequency for field transmission in different depth is carried out and verified by the experimental results in comparison with previously reported simulation over a digital wireless Through-The-Earth communication system. The experimental results demonstrate that the dipole antenna grounding impedance and the output power can be efficiently reduced by using the optimal electric dipole antenna model and operating at the optimum frequency in a vertical transmission depth up to 300 m beneath the surface of the earth.
Machine learning based switching model for electricity load forecasting
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fan Shu; Chen Luonan; Lee, Weijen
2008-01-01
In deregulated power markets, forecasting electricity loads is one of the most essential tasks for system planning, operation and decision making. Based on an integration of two machine learning techniques: Bayesian clustering by dynamics (BCD) and support vector regression (SVR), this paper proposes a novel forecasting model for day ahead electricity load forecasting. The proposed model adopts an integrated architecture to handle the non-stationarity of time series. Firstly, a BCD classifier is applied to cluster the input data set into several subsets by the dynamics of the time series in an unsupervised manner. Then, groups of SVRs are used to fit the training data of each subset in a supervised way. The effectiveness of the proposed model is demonstrated with actual data taken from the New York ISO and the Western Farmers Electric Cooperative in Oklahoma
A novel approach for modeling deregulated electricity markets
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rubin, Ofir D., E-mail: rubino@agri.huji.ac.i [Department of Agricultural Economics and Management, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, P.O. Box 12, Rehovot 76100 (Israel); Babcock, Bruce A., E-mail: babcock@iastate.ed [Department of Economics, Iowa State University, 578F Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070 (United States); Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD), Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011-1070 (United States)
2011-05-15
The theoretical framework developed in this study allows development of a model of deregulated electricity markets that explains two familiar empirical findings; the existence of forward premiums and price-cost markups in the spot market. This is a significant contribution because electricity forward premiums have been previously explained exclusively by the assumptions of perfect competition and risk-averse behavior while spot markups are generally the outcome of a body of literature assuming oligopolistic competition. Our theoretical framework indicates that a certain premium for forward contracting is required for efficient allocation of generation capacity. However, due to the uniqueness of electricity and the design of deregulated electricity markets this premium might be substantially higher than its optimal level. - Research highlights: {yields} The state of knowledge regarding modeling electricity markets is incomplete. {yields} Electricity forward premiums are not necessarily driven by risk aversion. {yields} Efficiency in production requires a certain premium for forward contracting. {yields} It is likely that market premiums are substantially higher than their optimal level. {yields} Policy regulation should not seek to eliminate forward premium entirely.
A novel approach for modeling deregulated electricity markets
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rubin, Ofir D.; Babcock, Bruce A.
2011-01-01
The theoretical framework developed in this study allows development of a model of deregulated electricity markets that explains two familiar empirical findings; the existence of forward premiums and price-cost markups in the spot market. This is a significant contribution because electricity forward premiums have been previously explained exclusively by the assumptions of perfect competition and risk-averse behavior while spot markups are generally the outcome of a body of literature assuming oligopolistic competition. Our theoretical framework indicates that a certain premium for forward contracting is required for efficient allocation of generation capacity. However, due to the uniqueness of electricity and the design of deregulated electricity markets this premium might be substantially higher than its optimal level. - Research highlights: → The state of knowledge regarding modeling electricity markets is incomplete. → Electricity forward premiums are not necessarily driven by risk aversion. → Efficiency in production requires a certain premium for forward contracting. → It is likely that market premiums are substantially higher than their optimal level. → Policy regulation should not seek to eliminate forward premium entirely.
Ensemble Prediction Model with Expert Selection for Electricity Price Forecasting
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bijay Neupane
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Forecasting of electricity prices is important in deregulated electricity markets for all of the stakeholders: energy wholesalers, traders, retailers and consumers. Electricity price forecasting is an inherently difficult problem due to its special characteristic of dynamicity and non-stationarity. In this paper, we present a robust price forecasting mechanism that shows resilience towards the aggregate demand response effect and provides highly accurate forecasted electricity prices to the stakeholders in a dynamic environment. We employ an ensemble prediction model in which a group of different algorithms participates in forecasting 1-h ahead the price for each hour of a day. We propose two different strategies, namely, the Fixed Weight Method (FWM and the Varying Weight Method (VWM, for selecting each hour’s expert algorithm from the set of participating algorithms. In addition, we utilize a carefully engineered set of features selected from a pool of features extracted from the past electricity price data, weather data and calendar data. The proposed ensemble model offers better results than the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA method, the Pattern Sequence-based Forecasting (PSF method and our previous work using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN alone on the datasets for New York, Australian and Spanish electricity markets.
A review of molecular modelling of electric double layer capacitors.
Burt, Ryan; Birkett, Greg; Zhao, X S
2014-04-14
Electric double-layer capacitors are a family of electrochemical energy storage devices that offer a number of advantages, such as high power density and long cyclability. In recent years, research and development of electric double-layer capacitor technology has been growing rapidly, in response to the increasing demand for energy storage devices from emerging industries, such as hybrid and electric vehicles, renewable energy, and smart grid management. The past few years have witnessed a number of significant research breakthroughs in terms of novel electrodes, new electrolytes, and fabrication of devices, thanks to the discovery of innovative materials (e.g. graphene, carbide-derived carbon, and templated carbon) and the availability of advanced experimental and computational tools. However, some experimental observations could not be clearly understood and interpreted due to limitations of traditional theories, some of which were developed more than one hundred years ago. This has led to significant research efforts in computational simulation and modelling, aimed at developing new theories, or improving the existing ones to help interpret experimental results. This review article provides a summary of research progress in molecular modelling of the physical phenomena taking place in electric double-layer capacitors. An introduction to electric double-layer capacitors and their applications, alongside a brief description of electric double layer theories, is presented first. Second, molecular modelling of ion behaviours of various electrolytes interacting with electrodes under different conditions is reviewed. Finally, key conclusions and outlooks are given. Simulations on comparing electric double-layer structure at planar and porous electrode surfaces under equilibrium conditions have revealed significant structural differences between the two electrode types, and porous electrodes have been shown to store charge more efficiently. Accurate electrolyte and
A pseudo-panel data model of household electricity demand
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bernard, Jean-Thomas; Bolduc, Denis [GREEN, Department of Economics, Universite Laval, Quebec (Canada); Yameogo, Nadege-Desiree [Analysis Group Inc., 1080 Beaver Hill, Suite 1810, Montreal, Quebec (Canada)
2011-01-15
We study the dynamic behaviour of household electricity consumption on the basis of four large independent surveys conducted in the province of Quebec from 1989 to 2002. The latter region displays some rather unique features such as the very extensive use of electricity for space heating in a cold climate and the wide range of energy sources used to meet space heating requirements. We adopt approach to create 25 cohorts of households that form a pseudo-panel. The cohorts have on average 131 households. The model error terms allow for group heteroskedasticity and serial correlation. Short-run and long-run own and cross-price elasticities are statistically significant. Electricity and natural gas are estimated to be substitutes while electricity and fuel oil are complements, as it may occur in the Quebec context. The estimate of the income elasticity is not significant. Comparisons with related studies are provided. (author)
Wind farm electrical power production model for load flow analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Segura-Heras, Isidoro; Escriva-Escriva, Guillermo; Alcazar-Ortega, Manuel
2011-01-01
The importance of renewable energy increases in activities relating to new forms of managing and operating electrical power: especially wind power. Wind generation is increasing its share in the electricity generation portfolios of many countries. Wind power production in Spain has doubled over the past four years and has reached 20 GW. One of the greatest problems facing wind farms is that the electrical power generated depends on the variable characteristics of the wind. To become competitive in a liberalized market, the reliability of wind energy must be guaranteed. Good local wind forecasts are therefore essential for the accurate prediction of generation levels for each moment of the day. This paper proposes an electrical power production model for wind farms based on a new method that produces correlated wind speeds for various wind farms. This method enables a reliable evaluation of the impact of new wind farms on the high-voltage distribution grid. (author)
Validity of the Cauchy-Born rule applied to discrete cellular-scale models of biological tissues
Davit, Y.
2013-04-30
The development of new models of biological tissues that consider cells in a discrete manner is becoming increasingly popular as an alternative to continuum methods based on partial differential equations, although formal relationships between the discrete and continuum frameworks remain to be established. For crystal mechanics, the discrete-to-continuum bridge is often made by assuming that local atom displacements can be mapped homogeneously from the mesoscale deformation gradient, an assumption known as the Cauchy-Born rule (CBR). Although the CBR does not hold exactly for noncrystalline materials, it may still be used as a first-order approximation for analytic calculations of effective stresses or strain energies. In this work, our goal is to investigate numerically the applicability of the CBR to two-dimensional cellular-scale models by assessing the mechanical behavior of model biological tissues, including crystalline (honeycomb) and noncrystalline reference states. The numerical procedure involves applying an affine deformation to the boundary cells and computing the quasistatic position of internal cells. The position of internal cells is then compared with the prediction of the CBR and an average deviation is calculated in the strain domain. For center-based cell models, we show that the CBR holds exactly when the deformation gradient is relatively small and the reference stress-free configuration is defined by a honeycomb lattice. We show further that the CBR may be used approximately when the reference state is perturbed from the honeycomb configuration. By contrast, for vertex-based cell models, a similar analysis reveals that the CBR does not provide a good representation of the tissue mechanics, even when the reference configuration is defined by a honeycomb lattice. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these results for concurrent discrete and continuous modeling, adaptation of atom-to-continuum techniques to biological
Modelling residential electricity demand in the GCC countries
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Atalla, Tarek N.; Hunt, Lester C.
2016-01-01
This paper aims at understanding the drivers of residential electricity demand in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries by applying the structural time series model. In addition to the economic variables of GDP and real electricity prices, the model accounts for population, weather, and a stochastic underlying energy demand trend as a proxy for efficiency and human behaviour. The resulting income and price elasticities are informative for policy makers given the paucity of previous estimates for a region with particular political structures and economies subject to large shocks. In particular, the estimates allow for a sound assessment of the impact of energy-related policies suggesting that if policy makers in the region wish to curtail future residential electricity consumption they would need to improve the efficiency of appliances and increase energy using awareness of consumers, possibly by education and marketing campaigns. Moreover, even if prices were raised the impact on curbing residential electricity growth in the region is likely to be very small given the low estimated price elasticities—unless, that is, prices were raised so high that expenditure on electricity becomes such a large proportion of income that the price elasticities increase (in absolute terms). - Highlights: • Residential electricity demand for Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Saudi Arabia • Estimated residential electricity demand relationships using STSM/UEDT approach • LR income and price elasticities from 0.43 to 0.71 and − 0.16 to zero respectively • Impact CDD elasticities from 0.2 to 0.7 • Estimated UEDTs suggest exogenous electricity using behaviour.
Modelling the electrical properties of tissue as a porous medium
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Smye, S W; Evans, C J; Robinson, M P; Sleeman, B D
2007-01-01
Models of the electrical properties of biological tissue have been the subject of many studies. These models have sought to explain aspects of the dielectric dispersion of tissue. This paper develops a mathematical model of the complex permittivity of tissue as a function of frequency f, in the range 10 4 7 Hz, which is derived from a formulation used to describe the complex permittivity of porous media. The model introduces two parameters, porosity and percolation probability, to the description of the electrical properties of any tissue which comprises a random arrangement of cells. The complex permittivity for a plausible porosity and percolation probability distribution is calculated and compared with the published measured electrical properties of liver tissue. Broad agreement with the experimental data is noted. It is suggested that future detailed experimental measurements should be undertaken to validate the model. The model may be a more convenient method of parameterizing the electrical properties of biological tissue and subsequent measurement of these parameters in a range of tissues may yield information of biological and clinical significance
Procurement model for copper and polymer electrical products
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S. Sremac
2013-10-01
Full Text Available Procurement model for copper and polymer electrical products. Electrical cable structure (wire, insulation, filling and mantle is in accordance with the technical specifications of individual cable components in terms of the incorporated materials. Materials used in cable manufacture are copper, aluminum, rubber and polyvinyl chloride. One of the key issues in managing the flow of goods pertains to the timing of procurement. The combination of the two concepts can take advantage of individual strengths of fuzzy logic and neural networks in hybrid systems of homogeneous structure. The model has high practical significance, as, with minor modifications, it can be applied in any enterprise responsible for managing the goods flows.
Wind power electric systems modeling, simulation and control
Rekioua, Djamila
2014-01-01
The book helps readers understand key concepts in standalone and grid connected wind energy systems and features analysis into the modeling and optimization of commonly used configurations through the implementation of different control strategies.Utilizing several electrical machinery control approaches, such as vector control and direct torque control 'Wind Power Electric Systems' equips readers with the means to understand, assess and develop their own wind energy systems and to evaluate the performance of such systems.Mathematical models are provided for each system and a corresponding MAT
10 CFR 431.385 - Cessation of distribution of a basic model of an electric motor.
2010-01-01
... basic model of an electric motor. (a) In the event that a model of an electric motor is determined non... a model of an electric motor to be in noncompliance, then the manufacturer or private labeler shall... 10 Energy 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Cessation of distribution of a basic model of an electric...
Animal Models for the Study of Rodent-Borne Hemorrhagic Fever Viruses: Arenaviruses and Hantaviruses
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Joseph W. Golden
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Human pathogenic hantaviruses and arenaviruses are maintained in nature by persistent infection of rodent carrier populations. Several members of these virus groups can cause significant disease in humans that is generically termed viral hemorrhagic fever (HF and is characterized as a febrile illness with an increased propensity to cause acute inflammation. Human interaction with rodent carrier populations leads to infection. Arenaviruses are also viewed as potential biological weapons threat agents. There is an increased interest in studying these viruses in animal models to gain a deeper understating not only of viral pathogenesis, but also for the evaluation of medical countermeasures (MCM to mitigate disease threats. In this review, we examine current knowledge regarding animal models employed in the study of these viruses. We include analysis of infection models in natural reservoirs and also discuss the impact of strain heterogeneity on the susceptibility of animals to infection. This information should provide a comprehensive reference for those interested in the study of arenaviruses and hantaviruses not only for MCM development but also in the study of viral pathogenesis and the biology of these viruses in their natural reservoirs.
Mitra, Anindita; Li, Y.-F.; Shimizu, T.; Klämpfl, Tobias; Zimmermann, J. L.; Morfill, G. E.
2012-10-01
Cold Atmospheric Plasma (CAP) is a fast, low cost, simple, easy to handle technology for biological application. Our group has developed a number of different CAP devices using the microwave technology and the surface micro discharge (SMD) technology. In this study, FlatPlaSter2.0 at different time intervals (0.5 to 5 min) is used for microbial inactivation. There is a continuous demand for deactivation of microorganisms associated with raw foods/seeds without loosing their properties. This research focuses on the kinetics of CAP induced microbial inactivation of naturally growing surface microorganisms on seeds. The data were assessed for log- linear and non-log-linear models for survivor curves as a function of time. The Weibull model showed the best fitting performance of the data. No shoulder and tail was observed. The models are focused in terms of the number of log cycles reduction rather than on classical D-values with statistical measurements. The viability of seeds was not affected for CAP treatment times up to 3 min with our device. The optimum result was observed at 1 min with increased percentage of germination from 60.83% to 89.16% compared to the control. This result suggests the advantage and promising role of CAP in food industry.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Narnhofer, H.; Thirring, W.
1989-01-01
Andre Martin is the master of the Schroedinger equation. Where others may do with cheap approximations he would not buy anything but a conclusive result proved by hard analysis. In recent years he applied his skill to meson spectroscopy where one deals with confining potentials. As a birthday present we will offer him a charged medium which gives such a potential purely in the framework of electrodynamics. We realize that this is just a toy and not the mechanism realized in nature. There it is supposed to emerge from QCD where also nonlinear and quantum effects are important. But our model may provide a formal basis to the heuristic discussions one finds in textbooks [1,2]. 6 refs. (Author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chappell, M A; Payne, S J
2006-01-01
Under decompression, bubbles can form in the human body, and these can be found both within the body tissues and the bloodstream. Mathematical models for the growth of both types of bubbles have previously been presented, but they have not been coupled together. This work thus explores the interaction between the growth of tissue and blood-borne bubbles under decompression, specifically looking at the extent to which they compete for the common resource of inert gas held in solution in the tissues. The influence of tissue bubbles is found to be significant for densities as low as 10 ml -1 for tissues which are poorly perfused. However, the effects of formation of bubbles in the blood are not found until the density of bubble production sites reaches 10 6 ml -1 . From comparison of the model predictions with experimental evidence for bubbles produced in animals and man under decompression, it is concluded that the density of tissue bubbles is likely to have a significant effect on the number of bubbles produced in the blood. However, the density of nucleation sites in the blood is unlikely to be sufficiently high in humans for the formation of bubbles in the blood to have a significant impact on the growth of the bubbles in the tissue
Modeling auditory-nerve responses to electrical stimulation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Joshi, Suyash Narendra; Dau, Torsten; Epp, Bastian
2014-01-01
μs, which is large enough to affect the temporal coding of sounds and hence, potentially, the communication abilities of the CI listener. In the present study, two recently proposed models of electric stimulation of the AN [1,2] were considered in terms of their efficacy to predict the spike timing...... for anodic and cathodic stimulation of the AN of cat [3]. The models’ responses to the electrical pulses of various shapes [4,5,6] were also analyzed. It was found that, while the models can account for the firing rates in response to various biphasic pulse shapes, they fail to correctly describe the timing......Cochlear implants (CI) directly stimulate the auditory nerve (AN), bypassing the mechano-electrical transduction in the inner ear. Trains of biphasic, charge balanced pulses (anodic and cathodic) are used as stimuli to avoid damage of the tissue. The pulses of either polarity are capable...
Electrical circuit model of ITO/AZO/Ge photodetector
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Malkeshkumar Patel
2017-10-01
Full Text Available In this data article, ITO/AZO/Ge photodetector was investigated for electrical circuit model. Due to the double (ITO and AZO transparent metal-oxide films (DOI:10.1016/j.mssp.2016.03.007 (Yun et al., 2016 [1], the Ge heterojunction device has a better interface quality due to the AZO layer with a low electrical resistance due to the ITO layer (Yun et al., 2015 [2]. The electrical and interfacial benefitted ITO/AZO/Ge heterojunction shows the quality Schottky junction. In order to investigate the device, the ITO/AZO/Ge heterojunction was analyzed by R–C circuit model using the impedance spectroscopy.
Spiking patterns of a hippocampus model in electric fields
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Men Cong; Wang Jiang; Qin Ying-Mei; Wei Xi-Le; Deng Bin; Che Yan-Qiu
2011-01-01
We develop a model of CA3 neurons embedded in a resistive array to mimic the effects of electric fields from a new perspective. Effects of DC and sinusoidal electric fields on firing patterns in CA3 neurons are investigated in this study. The firing patterns can be switched from no firing pattern to burst or from burst to fast periodic firing pattern with the increase of DC electric field intensity. It is also found that the firing activities are sensitive to the frequency and amplitude of the sinusoidal electric field. Different phase-locking states and chaotic firing regions are observed in the parameter space of frequency and amplitude. These findings are qualitatively in accordance with the results of relevant experimental and numerical studies. It is implied that the external or endogenous electric field can modulate the neural code in the brain. Furthermore, it is helpful to develop control strategies based on electric fields to control neural diseases such as epilepsy. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)
Modeling, hybridization, and optimal charging of electrical energy storage systems
Parvini, Yasha
The rising rate of global energy demand alongside the dwindling fossil fuel resources has motivated research for alternative and sustainable solutions. Within this area of research, electrical energy storage systems are pivotal in applications including electrified vehicles, renewable power generation, and electronic devices. The approach of this dissertation is to elucidate the bottlenecks of integrating supercapacitors and batteries in energy systems and propose solutions by the means of modeling, control, and experimental techniques. In the first step, the supercapacitor cell is modeled in order to gain fundamental understanding of its electrical and thermal dynamics. The dependence of electrical parameters on state of charge (SOC), current direction and magnitude (20-200 A), and temperatures ranging from -40°C to 60°C was embedded in this computationally efficient model. The coupled electro-thermal model was parameterized using specifically designed temporal experiments and then validated by the application of real world duty cycles. Driving range is one of the major challenges of electric vehicles compared to combustion vehicles. In order to shed light on the benefits of hybridizing a lead-acid driven electric vehicle via supercapacitors, a model was parameterized for the lead-acid battery and combined with the model already developed for the supercapacitor, to build the hybrid battery-supercapacitor model. A hardware in the loop (HIL) setup consisting of a custom built DC/DC converter, micro-controller (muC) to implement the power management strategy, 12V lead-acid battery, and a 16.2V supercapacitor module was built to perform the validation experiments. Charging electrical energy storage systems in an efficient and quick manner, motivated to solve an optimal control problem with the objective of maximizing the charging efficiency for supercapacitors, lead-acid, and lithium ion batteries. Pontryagins minimum principle was used to solve the problems
ELMO model predicts the price of electric power
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Antila, H.
2001-01-01
Electrowatt-Ekono has developed a new model, by which it is possible to make long-term prognoses on the development of electricity prices in the Nordic Countries. The ELMO model can be used as an analysis service of the electricity markets and estimation of the profitability of long-term power distribution contracts with different scenarios. It can also be applied for calculation of technical and economical fundamentals for new power plants, and for estimation of the effects of different taxation models on the emissions of power generation. The model describes the whole power generation system, the power and heat consumption and transmission. The Finnish power generation system is based on the Electrowatt-Ekono's boiler database by combining different data elements. Calculation is based on the assumption that the Nordic power generation system is used optimally, and that the production costs are minimised. In practise the effectively operated electricity markets ensure the optimal use of the production system. The market area to be described consists of Finland and Sweden. The spot prices have long been the same. Norway has been treated as a separate market area. The most potential power generation system, the power consumption and the power transmission system are presumed for the target year during a normal rainfall situation. The basic scenario is calculated on the basis of the preconditional data. The calculation is carried out on hourly basis, which enables the estimation of the price variation of electric power between different times during the day and seasons. The system optimises the power generation on the basis of electricity and heat consumption curves and fuel prices. The result is an hourly limit price for electric power. Estimates are presented as standard form reports. Prices are presented as average annuals, in the seasonal base, and in hourly or daily basis for different seasons
On reliability and maintenance modelling of ageing equipment in electric power systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lindquist, Tommie
2008-04-01
Maintenance optimisation is essential to achieve cost-efficiency, availability and reliability of supply in electric power systems. The process of maintenance optimisation requires information about the costs of preventive and corrective maintenance, as well as the costs of failures borne by both electricity suppliers and customers. To calculate expected costs, information is needed about equipment reliability characteristics and the way in which maintenance affects equipment reliability. The aim of this Ph.D. work has been to develop equipment reliability models taking the effect of maintenance into account. The research has focussed on the interrelated areas of condition estimation, reliability modelling and maintenance modelling, which have been investigated in a number of case studies. In the area of condition estimation two methods to quantitatively estimate the condition of disconnector contacts have been developed, which utilise results from infrared thermography inspections and contact resistance measurements. The accuracy of these methods were investigated in two case studies. Reliability models have been developed and implemented for SF6 circuit-breakers, disconnector contacts and XLPE cables in three separate case studies. These models were formulated using both empirical and physical modelling approaches. To improve confidence in such models a Bayesian statistical method incorporating information from the equipment design process was also developed. This method was illustrated in a case study of SF6 circuit-breaker operating rods. Methods for quantifying the effect of maintenance on equipment condition and reliability have been investigated in case studies on disconnector contacts and SF6 circuit-breakers. The input required by these methods are condition measurements and historical failure and maintenance data, respectively. This research has demonstrated that the effect of maintenance on power system equipment may be quantified using available data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pham, Thao; Lemoine, Killian
2015-01-01
Electricity generated by renewable energy sources creates a downward pressure on wholesale prices through - the so-called 'merit order effect'. This effect tends to lower average power prices and average market revenue that renewables producers should have received, making integration costs of renewables very high at large penetration rate. It is therefore crucial to determine the amplitude of this merit order effect particularly in the context of increasing burden of renewable support policies borne by final consumers. Using hourly data for the period 2009-2012 in German electricity wholesale market for GARCH model under panel data framework, we find that wind and solar power generation injected into German electricity network during this period induces a decrease of electricity spot prices and a slight increase of their volatility. The model-based results suggest that the merit-order effect created by renewable production ranges from 3.86 to 8.34 euro/MWh which implies to the annual volume of consumers' surplus from 1.89 to 3.92 billion euros. However this surplus has not been re-distributed equally among different types of electricity consumers. (authors)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kamat, Anu; Thomas, Paul; Kesavan, P.C.; Fotedar, R.
1997-01-01
Application of radiation or high pressure as a food processing method is comparatively recent development in food industry. To investigate the response to hydrostatic pressure, cells of pathogens at logarithmic phase were exposed to 200 MPa for various time intervals in saline as model system. The cells of Salmonella were observed to be most sensitive whereas Listeria monocytogenes were most resistant as revealed by 7 and 2 log cycle inactivation respectively in 10 min. The cells of Bacillus cereus and Yersinia enterocolitica showed 3 long cycles reduction by the same treatment. Bacterial spores because of their resistant nature, are inactivated only at high radiation doses, which are technologically unfeasible. Studies carried out to examine the effectiveness of combination of pressure and radiation clearly suggested that combination treatment given in either sequence reduces the bacterial spore load more effectively than the individual treatment per se. (author)
Plasma metabolite score correlates with Hypoxia time in a newly born piglet model for asphyxia
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Julia Kuligowski
2017-08-01
Full Text Available Hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE secondary to perinatal asphyxia is a leading cause of mortality and acquired long-term neurologic co-morbidities in the neonate. The most successful intervention for the treatment of moderate to severe HIE is moderate whole body hypothermia initiated within 6 h from birth. The objective and prompt identification of infants who are at risk of developing moderate to severe HIE in the critical first hours still remains a challenge. This work proposes a metabolite score calculated based on the relative intensities of three metabolites (choline, 6,8-dihydroxypurine and hypoxanthine that showed maximum correlation with hypoxia time in a consolidated piglet model for neonatal hypoxia-ischemia. The metabolite score's performance as a biomarker for perinatal hypoxia and its usefulness for clinical grading and decision making have been assessed and compared to the performance of lactate which is currently considered the gold standard. For plasma samples withdrawn before and directly after a hypoxic insult, the metabolite score performed similar to lactate. However, it provided an enhanced predictive capacity at 2 h after resuscitation. The present study evidences the usefulness of the metabolite score for improving the early assessment of the severity of the hypoxic insult based on serial determinations in a minimally invasive biofluid. The applicability of the metabolite score for clinical diagnosis and patient stratification for hypothermia treatment has to be confirmed in multicenter trials involving newborns suffering from HIE. Keywords: Hypoxia, Perinatal asphyxia, Newborn, Metabolic biomarker, Neonatal piglet model, Liquid Chromatography – Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometry (LC-TOF-MS
Improvements to the IAEA's electric generation expansion model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stoytchev, D.; Georgiev, S.
1997-01-01
This paper deals with the implementation of the IAEA's planning approach and software in Bulgaria. The problems encountered in the process are summarized, with emphasis on two of the limitations of the electric generation expansion model (WASP). The solutions found by Bulgarian experts to overcome these problems are also described, together with some comparative results of the tests performed. (author)
101 Modelling and Forecasting Periodic Electric Load for a ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
User
2012-01-24
Jan 24, 2012 ... Electricity load consumption in Nigeria is of great concern and its government is ... This is because the energy needed for any system is based on ... is a tool for verifying the validity and reliability of a chosen model. It tells how ...
Battery electric vehicle energy consumption modelling for range estimation
Wang, J.; Besselink, I.J.M.; Nijmeijer, H.
2017-01-01
Range anxiety is considered as one of the major barriers to the mass adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). One method to solve this problem is to provide accurate range estimation to the driver. This paper describes a vehicle energy consumption model considering the influence of weather
An agent-based model for diffusion of electric vehicles
Kangur, Ayla; Jager, Wander; Verbrugge, Rineke; Bockarjova, Marija
2017-01-01
The transition from fuel cars to electric cars is a large-scale process involving many interactions between consumers and other stakeholders over decades. To explore how policies may interact with consumer behavior over such a long time period, we developed an agent-based social simulation model. In
The neutron electric dipole moment in the cloudy bag model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Morgan, M.A.; Miller, G.A.
1986-01-01
An evaluation of the neutron electric dipole moment (NEDM), using the cloudy bag model (CBM) shows that two CP-violating effects (a quark mass term and a pion-quark interaction) have contributions that are about equal in magnitude, but opposite in sign. This cancellation allows the upper limit on the θ parameter to increase by about an order of magnitude. (orig.)
Improvements to the IAEA`s electric generation expansion model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Stoytchev, D; Georgiev, S [Committee of Energy, Sofia (Bulgaria)
1997-09-01
This paper deals with the implementation of the IAEA`s planning approach and software in Bulgaria. The problems encountered in the process are summarized, with emphasis on two of the limitations of the electric generation expansion model (WASP). The solutions found by Bulgarian experts to overcome these problems are also described, together with some comparative results of the tests performed. (author).
Structure preserving port-Hamiltonian model reduction of electrical circuits
Polyuga, R.; Schaft, van der A.J.; Benner, P.; Hinze, M.; Maten, ter E.J.W.
2011-01-01
This paper discusses model reduction of electrical circuits based on a port-Hamiltonian representation. It is shown that by the use of the Kalman decomposition an uncontrollable and/or unobservable port-Hamiltonian system is reduced to a controllable/observable system that inherits the
Multiphysics Modeling of Electric-Swing Adsorption System with In-Vessel Condensation (POSTPRINT)
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Petkovska, Menka; Antov-Bozalo, Danijela; Markovic, Ana; Sullivan, Patrick D
2007-01-01
Mathematical modeling of an Electric-Swing Adsorption (ESA) system (adsorption cycle with electrothermal desorption step, performed by direct heating of the adsorbent particles by passing electric current...
A rough multi-factor model of electricity spot prices
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bennedsen, Mikkel
2017-01-01
We introduce a new continuous-time mathematical model of electricity spot prices which accounts for the most important stylized facts of these time series: seasonality, spikes, stochastic volatility, and mean reversion. Empirical studies have found a possible fifth stylized fact, roughness, and our approach explicitly incorporates this into the model of the prices. Our setup generalizes the popular Ornstein–Uhlenbeck-based multi-factor framework of and allows us to perform statistical tests to distinguish between an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck-based model and a rough model. Further, through the multi-factor approach we account for seasonality and spikes before estimating – and making inference on – the degree of roughness. This is novel in the literature and we present simulation evidence showing that these precautions are crucial for accurate estimation. Lastly, we estimate our model on recent data from six European energy exchanges and find statistical evidence of roughness in five out of six markets. As an application of our model, we show how, in these five markets, a rough component improves short term forecasting of the prices. - Highlights: • Statistical modeling of electricity spot prices • Multi-factor decomposition • Roughness • Electricity price forecasting
Boschi, Lapo
2006-10-01
I invert a large set of teleseismic phase-anomaly observations, to derive tomographic maps of fundamental-mode surface wave phase velocity, first via ray theory, then accounting for finite-frequency effects through scattering theory, in the far-field approximation and neglecting mode coupling. I make use of a multiple-resolution pixel parametrization which, in the assumption of sufficient data coverage, should be adequate to represent strongly oscillatory Fréchet kernels. The parametrization is finer over North America, a region particularly well covered by the data. For each surface-wave mode where phase-anomaly observations are available, I derive a wide spectrum of plausible, differently damped solutions; I then conduct a trade-off analysis, and select as optimal solution model the one associated with the point of maximum curvature on the trade-off curve. I repeat this exercise in both theoretical frameworks, to find that selected scattering and ray theoretical phase-velocity maps are coincident in pattern, and differ only slightly in amplitude.
Modeling electrical conductivities of nanocomposites with aligned carbon nanotubes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bao, W S; Meguid, S A; Zhu, Z H; Meguid, M J
2011-01-01
We have developed an improved three-dimensional (3D) percolation model to investigate the effect of the alignment of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) on the electrical conductivity of nanocomposites. In this model, both intrinsic and contact resistances are considered, and a new method of resistor network recognition that employs periodically connective paths is developed. This method leads to a reduction in the size effect of the representative cuboid in our Monte Carlo simulations. With this new technique, we were able to effectively analyze the effects of the CNT alignment upon the electrical conductivity of nanocomposites. Our model predicted that the peak value of the conductivity occurs for partially aligned rather than perfectly aligned CNTs. It has also identified the value of the peak and the corresponding alignment for different volume fractions of CNTs. Our model works well for both multi-wall CNTs (MWCNTs) and single-wall CNTs (SWCNTs), and the numerical results show a quantitative agreement with existing experimental observations.
Electricity Market Manipulation: How Behavioral Modeling Can Help Market Design
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gallo, Giulia [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
2015-12-18
The question of how to best design electricity markets to integrate variable and uncertain renewable energy resources is becoming increasingly important as more renewable energy is added to electric power systems. Current markets were designed based on a set of assumptions that are not always valid in scenarios of high penetrations of renewables. In a future where renewables might have a larger impact on market mechanisms as well as financial outcomes, there is a need for modeling tools and power system modeling software that can provide policy makers and industry actors with more realistic representations of wholesale markets. One option includes using agent-based modeling frameworks. This paper discusses how key elements of current and future wholesale power markets can be modeled using an agent-based approach and how this approach may become a useful paradigm that researchers can employ when studying and planning for power systems of the future.
Handbook of electrical power system dynamics modeling, stability, and control
Eremia, Mircea
2013-01-01
Complete guidance for understanding electrical power system dynamics and blackouts This handbook offers a comprehensive and up-to-date treatment of power system dynamics. Addressing the full range of topics, from the fundamentals to the latest technologies in modeling, stability, and control, Handbook of Electrical Power System Dynamics provides engineers with hands-on guidance for understanding the phenomena leading to blackouts so they can design the most appropriate solutions for a cost-effective and reliable operation. Focusing on system dynamics, the book details
Electric machines modeling, condition monitoring, and fault diagnosis
Toliyat, Hamid A; Choi, Seungdeog; Meshgin-Kelk, Homayoun
2012-01-01
With countless electric motors being used in daily life, in everything from transportation and medical treatment to military operation and communication, unexpected failures can lead to the loss of valuable human life or a costly standstill in industry. To prevent this, it is important to precisely detect or continuously monitor the working condition of a motor. Electric Machines: Modeling, Condition Monitoring, and Fault Diagnosis reviews diagnosis technologies and provides an application guide for readers who want to research, develop, and implement a more effective fault diagnosis and condi
Methodology for assessing electric vehicle charging infrastructure business models
Madina, Carlos; Zamora, Inmaculada; Zabala, Eduardo
2016-01-01
The analysis of economic implications of innovative business models in networked environments, as electro-mobility is, requires a global approach to ensure that all the involved actors obtain a benefit. Although electric vehicles (EVs) provide benefits for the society as a whole, there are a number of hurdles for their widespread adoption, mainly the high investment cost for the EV and for the infrastructure. Therefore, a sound business model must be built up for charging service operators, w...
Battery model for electrical power system energy balance
Hafen, D. P.
1983-01-01
A model to simulate nickel-cadmium battery performance and response in a spacecraft electrical power system energy balance calculation was developed. The voltage of the battery is given as a function of temperature, operating depth-of-charge (DOD), and battery state-of-charge. Also accounted for is charge inefficiency. A battery is modeled by analysis of the results of a multiparameter battery cycling test at various temperatures and DOD's.
Econometric modeling of electricity consumption in post-war Lebanon
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nasr, G.E.; Badr, E.A.; Dibeh, G.
2000-01-01
This paper applies econometric models to investigate determinants of electrical energy consumption in post-war Lebanon. The impact of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), proxied by total imports (TI), and degree days (DD) on electricity consumption is investigated over different time spans covering the period from 1993 to 1997. The time spans are chosen according to the rationing level of electricity supply. For the 1993-1994 time span, TI is found to be a significant determinant of energy consumption, whereas, DD has a negative correlation. This inconsistency might be attributed to an extensive rationing policy followed during this period. For the 1995-1997 time span which includes reduced rationing period (1995), all electrical energy consumption determinants are found to be significant at the 5% significance level. Analysis results for the rationing free 1996-1997 time span also show the significance of TI and DD at the 5% level. Furthermore, cointegration analysis for the 1995-1997 and 1996-1997 subsets reveals the existence of a long-run relationship between all variables. In addition, error correction models for both subsets are developed to predict short-run dynamics. Finally, statistical performance measures such as mean square error, mean average deviation and mean average percentage error are presented for all models
The electricity portfolio simulation model (EPSim) technical description.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Drennen, Thomas E.; Klotz, Richard (Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY)
2005-09-01
Stakeholders often have competing interests when selecting or planning new power plants. The purpose of developing this preliminary Electricity Portfolio Simulation Model (EPSim) is to provide a first cut, dynamic methodology and approach to this problem, that can subsequently be refined and validated, that may help energy planners, policy makers, and energy students better understand the tradeoffs associated with competing electricity portfolios. EPSim allows the user to explore competing electricity portfolios annually from 2002 to 2025 in terms of five different criteria: cost, environmental impacts, energy dependence, health and safety, and sustainability. Four additional criteria (infrastructure vulnerability, service limitations, policy needs and science and technology needs) may be added in future versions of the model. Using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) approach, users or groups of users apply weights to each of the criteria. The default energy assumptions of the model mimic Department of Energy's (DOE) electricity portfolio to 2025 (EIA, 2005). At any time, the user can compare alternative portfolios to this reference case portfolio.
Electron electric dipole moment in Inverse Seesaw models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Abada, Asmaa; Toma, Takashi [Laboratoire de Physique Théorique, CNRS, University Paris-Sud, Université Paris-Saclay,91405 Orsay (France)
2016-08-11
We consider the contribution of sterile neutrinos to the electric dipole moment of charged leptons in the most minimal realisation of the Inverse Seesaw mechanism, in which the Standard Model is extended by two right-handed neutrinos and two sterile fermion states. Our study shows that the two pairs of (heavy) pseudo-Dirac mass eigenstates can give significant contributions to the electron electric dipole moment, lying close to future experimental sensitivity if their masses are above the electroweak scale. The major contribution comes from two-loop diagrams with pseudo-Dirac neutrino states running in the loops. In our analysis we further discuss the possibility of having a successful leptogenesis in this framework, compatible with a large electron electric dipole moment.
Electron electric dipole moment in Inverse Seesaw models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Abada, Asmaa; Toma, Takashi
2016-01-01
We consider the contribution of sterile neutrinos to the electric dipole moment of charged leptons in the most minimal realisation of the Inverse Seesaw mechanism, in which the Standard Model is extended by two right-handed neutrinos and two sterile fermion states. Our study shows that the two pairs of (heavy) pseudo-Dirac mass eigenstates can give significant contributions to the electron electric dipole moment, lying close to future experimental sensitivity if their masses are above the electroweak scale. The major contribution comes from two-loop diagrams with pseudo-Dirac neutrino states running in the loops. In our analysis we further discuss the possibility of having a successful leptogenesis in this framework, compatible with a large electron electric dipole moment.
Rough electricity: a new fractal multi-factor model of electricity spot prices
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bennedsen, Mikkel
We introduce a new mathematical model of electricity spot prices which accounts for the most important stylized facts of these time series: seasonality, spikes, stochastic volatility and mean reversion. Empirical studies have found a possible fifth stylized fact, fractality, and our approach...... explicitly incorporates this into the model of the prices. Our setup generalizes the popular Ornstein Uhlenbeck-based multi-factor framework of Benth et al. (2007) and allows us to perform statistical tests to distinguish between an Ornstein Uhlenbeck-based model and a fractal model. Further, through...... the multi-factor approach we account for seasonality and spikes before estimating - and making inference on - the degree of fractality. This is novel in the literature and we present simulation evidence showing that these precautions are crucial to accurate estimation. Lastly, we estimate our model...
A two dimension model of the uterine electrical wave propagation.
Rihana, S; Lefrançois, E; Marque, C
2007-01-01
The uterus, usually quiescent during pregnancy, exhibits forceful contractions at term leading to delivery. These contractions are caused by the synchronized propagation of electrical waves from the pacemaker cells to its neighbors inducing the whole coordinated contraction of the uterus wall leading to labor. In a previous work, we simulate the electrical activity of a single uterine cell by a set of ordinary differential equations. Then, this model has been used to simulate the electrical activity propagation. In the present work, the uterine cell tissue is assumed to have uniform and isotropic propagation, and constant electrical membrane properties. The stability of the numerical solution imposes the choice of a critical temporal step. A wave starts at a pacemaker cell; this electrical activity is initiated by the injection of an external stimulation current to the cell membrane. We observe synchronous wave propagation for axial resistance values around 0.5 GOmega or less and propoagation blocking for values greater than 0.7 GOmega. We compute the conduction velocity of the excitation, for different axial resistance values, and obtain a velocity about 10 cm/sec, approaching the one described by the literature for the rat at end of term.
Electricity consumption forecasting in Italy using linear regression models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bianco, Vincenzo; Manca, Oronzio; Nardini, Sergio [DIAM, Seconda Universita degli Studi di Napoli, Via Roma 29, 81031 Aversa (CE) (Italy)
2009-09-15
The influence of economic and demographic variables on the annual electricity consumption in Italy has been investigated with the intention to develop a long-term consumption forecasting model. The time period considered for the historical data is from 1970 to 2007. Different regression models were developed, using historical electricity consumption, gross domestic product (GDP), gross domestic product per capita (GDP per capita) and population. A first part of the paper considers the estimation of GDP, price and GDP per capita elasticities of domestic and non-domestic electricity consumption. The domestic and non-domestic short run price elasticities are found to be both approximately equal to -0.06, while long run elasticities are equal to -0.24 and -0.09, respectively. On the contrary, the elasticities of GDP and GDP per capita present higher values. In the second part of the paper, different regression models, based on co-integrated or stationary data, are presented. Different statistical tests are employed to check the validity of the proposed models. A comparison with national forecasts, based on complex econometric models, such as Markal-Time, was performed, showing that the developed regressions are congruent with the official projections, with deviations of {+-}1% for the best case and {+-}11% for the worst. These deviations are to be considered acceptable in relation to the time span taken into account. (author)
Electricity consumption forecasting in Italy using linear regression models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bianco, Vincenzo; Manca, Oronzio; Nardini, Sergio
2009-01-01
The influence of economic and demographic variables on the annual electricity consumption in Italy has been investigated with the intention to develop a long-term consumption forecasting model. The time period considered for the historical data is from 1970 to 2007. Different regression models were developed, using historical electricity consumption, gross domestic product (GDP), gross domestic product per capita (GDP per capita) and population. A first part of the paper considers the estimation of GDP, price and GDP per capita elasticities of domestic and non-domestic electricity consumption. The domestic and non-domestic short run price elasticities are found to be both approximately equal to -0.06, while long run elasticities are equal to -0.24 and -0.09, respectively. On the contrary, the elasticities of GDP and GDP per capita present higher values. In the second part of the paper, different regression models, based on co-integrated or stationary data, are presented. Different statistical tests are employed to check the validity of the proposed models. A comparison with national forecasts, based on complex econometric models, such as Markal-Time, was performed, showing that the developed regressions are congruent with the official projections, with deviations of ±1% for the best case and ±11% for the worst. These deviations are to be considered acceptable in relation to the time span taken into account. (author)
Scenario Evaluator for Electrical Resistivity survey pre-modeling tool
Terry, Neil; Day-Lewis, Frederick D.; Robinson, Judith L.; Slater, Lee D.; Halford, Keith J.; Binley, Andrew; Lane, John W.; Werkema, Dale D.
2017-01-01
Geophysical tools have much to offer users in environmental, water resource, and geotechnical fields; however, techniques such as electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) are often oversold and/or overinterpreted due to a lack of understanding of the limitations of the techniques, such as the appropriate depth intervals or resolution of the methods. The relationship between ERI data and resistivity is nonlinear; therefore, these limitations depend on site conditions and survey design and are best assessed through forward and inverse modeling exercises prior to field investigations. In this approach, proposed field surveys are first numerically simulated given the expected electrical properties of the site, and the resulting hypothetical data are then analyzed using inverse models. Performing ERI forward/inverse modeling, however, requires substantial expertise and can take many hours to implement. We present a new spreadsheet-based tool, the Scenario Evaluator for Electrical Resistivity (SEER), which features a graphical user interface that allows users to manipulate a resistivity model and instantly view how that model would likely be interpreted by an ERI survey. The SEER tool is intended for use by those who wish to determine the value of including ERI to achieve project goals, and is designed to have broad utility in industry, teaching, and research.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
E. Kristensen
2018-02-01
Full Text Available Groundwater-borne contaminants such as nutrients, dissolved organic carbon (DOC, coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM and pesticides can have an impact the biological quality of lakes. The sources of pollutants can, however, be difficult to identify due to high heterogeneity in groundwater flow patterns. This study presents a novel approach for fast hydrological surveys of small groundwater-fed lakes using multiple groundwater-borne tracers. Water samples were collected from the lake and temporary groundwater wells, installed every 50 m within a distance of 5–45 m to the shore, were analysed for tracer concentrations of CDOM, DOC, total dissolved nitrogen (TDN, groundwater only, total nitrogen (TN, lake only, total dissolved phosphorus (TDP, groundwater only, total phosphorus (TP, lake only, δ18O ∕ δ16O isotope ratios and fluorescent dissolved organic matter (FDOM components derived from parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC. The isolation of groundwater recharge areas was based on δ18O measurements and areas with a high groundwater recharge rate were identified using a microbially influenced FDOM component. Groundwater discharge sites and the fractions of water delivered from the individual sites were isolated with the Community Assembly via Trait Selection model (CATS. The CATS model utilized tracer measurements of TDP, TDN, DOC and CDOM from the groundwater samples and related these to the tracer measurements of TN, TP, DOC and CDOM in the lake. A direct comparison between the lake and the inflowing groundwater was possible as degradation rates of the tracers in the lake were taken into account and related to a range of water retention times (WRTs of the lake (0.25–3.5 years in 0.25-year increments. These estimations showed that WRTs above 2 years required a higher tracer concentration of inflowing water than found in any of the groundwater wells around the lake. From the estimations of inflowing tracer concentration
Kristensen, Emil; Madsen-Østerbye, Mikkel; Massicotte, Philippe; Pedersen, Ole; Markager, Stiig; Kragh, Theis
2018-02-01
Groundwater-borne contaminants such as nutrients, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM) and pesticides can have an impact the biological quality of lakes. The sources of pollutants can, however, be difficult to identify due to high heterogeneity in groundwater flow patterns. This study presents a novel approach for fast hydrological surveys of small groundwater-fed lakes using multiple groundwater-borne tracers. Water samples were collected from the lake and temporary groundwater wells, installed every 50 m within a distance of 5-45 m to the shore, were analysed for tracer concentrations of CDOM, DOC, total dissolved nitrogen (TDN, groundwater only), total nitrogen (TN, lake only), total dissolved phosphorus (TDP, groundwater only), total phosphorus (TP, lake only), δ18O / δ16O isotope ratios and fluorescent dissolved organic matter (FDOM) components derived from parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC). The isolation of groundwater recharge areas was based on δ18O measurements and areas with a high groundwater recharge rate were identified using a microbially influenced FDOM component. Groundwater discharge sites and the fractions of water delivered from the individual sites were isolated with the Community Assembly via Trait Selection model (CATS). The CATS model utilized tracer measurements of TDP, TDN, DOC and CDOM from the groundwater samples and related these to the tracer measurements of TN, TP, DOC and CDOM in the lake. A direct comparison between the lake and the inflowing groundwater was possible as degradation rates of the tracers in the lake were taken into account and related to a range of water retention times (WRTs) of the lake (0.25-3.5 years in 0.25-year increments). These estimations showed that WRTs above 2 years required a higher tracer concentration of inflowing water than found in any of the groundwater wells around the lake. From the estimations of inflowing tracer concentration, the CATS model isolated
Basford, Leslie
2013-01-01
Electricity Made Simple covers the fundamental principles underlying every aspect of electricity. The book discusses current; resistance including its measurement, Kirchhoff's laws, and resistors; electroheat, electromagnetics and electrochemistry; and the motor and generator effects of electromagnetic forces. The text also describes alternating current, circuits and inductors, alternating current circuits, and a.c. generators and motors. Other methods of generating electromagnetic forces are also considered. The book is useful for electrical engineering students.
Electricity market reforms: Institutional developments, investment dynamics and game modeling
Pineau, Pierre-Olivier
advanced to support market reforms and an industry view of the actual strategic actions undertaken by important utilities. Legislative changes will be reviewed for different countries with a discussion on the assessment procedures for these reforms. A detailed example of the reform process in the Finnish electricity market is presented. The investment issue will emerge as an interesting challenge to focus on, due to its importance for the market. The second approach is more analytical and develops on the market equilibria that could result from the new structure. A dynamic model of investment for the electricity market is built and applied to the Finnish market. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)
Regulation of electricity distribution: Issues for implementing a norm model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bjoerndal, Endre; Bjoerndal, Mette; Bjoernenak, Trond; Johnsen, Thore
2005-01-01
The Norwegian regulation of transmission and distribution of electricity is currently under revision, and several proposals, including price caps, various norm models and adjustments to the present revenue cap model, have been considered by the Norwegian regulator, NVE. Our starting point is that a successful and sustainable income-regulation-model for electricity distribution should be in accordance with the way of thinking, and the managerial tools of modern businesses. In the regulation it is assumed that decisions regarding operations and investments are made by independent, business oriented entities. The ambition of a dynamically efficient industry therefore requires that the regulatory model and its implementation support best practice business performance. This will influence how the cost base is determined and the way investments are dealt with. We will investigate a possible implementation of a regulatory model based on cost norms. In this we will distinguish between on the one hand, customer driven costs, and on the other hand, costs related to the network itself. The network related costs, which account for approximately 80% of the total cost of electricity distribution, include the costs of operating and maintaining the network, as well as capital costs. These are the ''difficult'' costs, as their levels depend on structural and climatic factors, as well as the number of customers and the load that is served. Additionally, the costs are not separable, since for instance maintenance and investments can be substitutable activities. The work concentrates on verifying the cost model, and evaluating implications for the use of the present efficiency model (DEA) in the regulation. Moreover, we consider how network related costs can be managed in a norm model. Finally, it is highlighted that an important part of a regulatory model based on cost norms is to devise quality measures and how to use them in the economic regulation. (Author)
Djurabekova, Flyura; Pohjonen, Aarne; Nordlund, Kai
2011-01-01
The effect of electric fields on metal surfaces is fairly well studied, resulting in numerous analytical models developed to understand the mechanisms of ionization of surface atoms observed at very high electric fields, as well as the general behavior of a metal surface in this condition. However, the derivation of analytical models does not include explicitly the structural properties of metals, missing the link between the instantaneous effects owing to the applied field and the consequent response observed in the metal surface as a result of an extended application of an electric field. In the present work, we have developed a concurrent electrodynamic–molecular dynamic model for the dynamical simulation of an electric-field effect and subsequent modification of a metal surface in the framework of an atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) approach. The partial charge induced on the surface atoms by the electric field is assessed by applying the classical Gauss law. The electric forces acting on the partially...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Oei, Pao-Yu Charly Robin
2016-01-01
This dissertation uses three models to analyze different decarbonization strategies for combating global climate change: The cost minimizing mixed-integer model CCTS-Mod examines the economics of Carbon Capture, Transport, and Storage (CCTS) for the electricity and industry sector; the welfare maximizing quadratically constrained model ELMOD focuses on different trajectories for renewable energy sources (RES) and transmission grid expansions; and the equilibrium model ELCO combines the insights of the individual sectors to a combined CCTS and electricity investment and dispatch model. Modeling results show that an investment in CCTS is beneficial for the iron and steel sector once the CO_2 certificate price exceeds 50 Euros/t CO_2. The threshold is 75 Euros/t CO_2 for the cement industry and 100 Euros/t CO_2 for the electricity sector. Additional revenues from using CO_2 for enhanced oil recovery (CO_2-EOR) lead to an earlier adoption of CCTS in the North Sea region. The lack of economies of scale results in increasing CO_2 storage costs of more than 30%, while transport costs even double. Research from the last years, however, indicates that CCTS is unlikely to play an important role in decarbonizing the electricity sector. The identified reasons for this are incumbents' resistance to structural change, wrong technology choices, over-optimistic cost estimates, a premature focus on energy projects instead of industry, and the underestimation of transport and storage issues. Keeping global temperature rise below 2 C therefore implies the phase-out of fossilfueled power plants and, in particular, of CO_2-intensive coal power plants. The low CO_2 price established by the European Emissions Trading Scheme is insufficient to induce a fuel switch in the medium term. Therefore, supplementary national measures are necessary to reduce coal-based power generation; i.a. feed-in tariffs for RES, minimum CO_2 prices, or emissions performance standards. Analyses for Germany show
Electricity prices forecasting by automatic dynamic harmonic regression models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pedregal, Diego J.; Trapero, Juan R.
2007-01-01
The changes experienced by electricity markets in recent years have created the necessity for more accurate forecast tools of electricity prices, both for producers and consumers. Many methodologies have been applied to this aim, but in the view of the authors, state space models are not yet fully exploited. The present paper proposes a univariate dynamic harmonic regression model set up in a state space framework for forecasting prices in these markets. The advantages of the approach are threefold. Firstly, a fast automatic identification and estimation procedure is proposed based on the frequency domain. Secondly, the recursive algorithms applied offer adaptive predictions that compare favourably with respect to other techniques. Finally, since the method is based on unobserved components models, explicit information about trend, seasonal and irregular behaviours of the series can be extracted. This information is of great value to the electricity companies' managers in order to improve their strategies, i.e. it provides management innovations. The good forecast performance and the rapid adaptability of the model to changes in the data are illustrated with actual prices taken from the PJM interconnection in the US and for the Spanish market for the year 2002. (author)
Modeling and forecasting of electrical power demands for capacity planning
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Al-Shobaki, Salman; Mohsen, Mousa
2008-01-01
This paper describes the development of forecasting models to predict future generation and electrical power consumption in Jordan. This is critical to production cost since power is generated by burning expensive imported oil. Currently, the National Electric Power Company (NEPCO) is using regression models that only accounts for trend dynamics in their planning of loads and demand levels. The models are simplistic and are based on generated energy historical levels. They produce results on yearly bases and do not account for monthly variability in demand levels. The paper presents two models, one based on the generated energy data and the other is based on the consumed energy data. The models account for trend, monthly seasonality, and cycle dynamics. Both models are compared to NEPCO's model and indicate that NEPCO is producing energy at levels higher than needed (5.25%) thus increasing the loss in generated energy. The developed models also show a 13% difference between the generated energy and the consumed energy that is lost due to transmission line and in-house consumption
Modeling and forecasting of electrical power demands for capacity planning
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Al-Shobaki, Salman [Department of Industrial Engineering, Hashemite University, Zarka 13115 (Jordan); Mohsen, Mousa [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Hashemite University, Zarka 13115 (Jordan)
2008-11-15
This paper describes the development of forecasting models to predict future generation and electrical power consumption in Jordan. This is critical to production cost since power is generated by burning expensive imported oil. Currently, the National Electric Power Company (NEPCO) is using regression models that only accounts for trend dynamics in their planning of loads and demand levels. The models are simplistic and are based on generated energy historical levels. They produce results on yearly bases and do not account for monthly variability in demand levels. The paper presents two models, one based on the generated energy data and the other is based on the consumed energy data. The models account for trend, monthly seasonality, and cycle dynamics. Both models are compared to NEPCO's model and indicate that NEPCO is producing energy at levels higher than needed (5.25%) thus increasing the loss in generated energy. The developed models also show a 13% difference between the generated energy and the consumed energy that is lost due to transmission line and in-house consumption. (author)
A universal calculation model for the controlled electric transmission line
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zivzivadze, O.; Zivzivadze, L.
2009-01-01
Difficulties associated with the development of calculation models are analyzed, and the ways of resolution of these problems are given. A version of the equivalent circuit as a six-pole network, the parameters of which do not depend on the angle of shift Θ between the voltage vectors of circuits is offered. The interrelation between the parameters of the equivalent circuit and the transmission constants of the line was determined. A universal calculation model for the controlled electric transmission line was elaborated. The model allows calculating the stationary modes of lines of such classes at any angle of shift Θ between the circuits. (author)
Reliability modeling of Clinch River breeder reactor electrical shutdown systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schatz, R.A.; Duetsch, K.L.
1974-01-01
The initial simulation of the probabilistic properties of the Clinch River Breeder Reactor Plant (CRBRP) electrical shutdown systems is described. A model of the reliability (and availability) of the systems is presented utilizing Success State and continuous-time, discrete state Markov modeling techniques as significant elements of an overall reliability assessment process capable of demonstrating the achievement of program goals. This model is examined for its sensitivity to safe/unsafe failure rates, sybsystem redundant configurations, test and repair intervals, monitoring by reactor operators; and the control exercised over system reliability by design modifications and the selection of system operating characteristics. (U.S.)
Mathematical Modelling and Simulation of Electrical Circuits and Semiconductor Devices
Merten, K; Bulirsch, R
1990-01-01
Numerical simulation and modelling of electric circuits and semiconductor devices are of primal interest in today's high technology industries. At the Oberwolfach Conference more than forty scientists from around the world, in cluding applied mathematicians and electrical engineers from industry and universities, presented new results in this area of growing importance. The contributions to this conference are presented in these proceedings. They include contributions on special topics of current interest in circuit and device simulation, as well as contributions that present an overview of the field. In the semiconductor area special lectures were given on mixed finite element methods and iterative procedures for the solution of large linear systems. For three dimensional models new discretization procedures including software packages were presented. Con nections between semiconductor equations and the Boltzmann equation were shown as well as relations to the quantum transport equation. Other issues dis...
Adaptive Modeling of the International Space Station Electrical Power System
Thomas, Justin Ray
2007-01-01
Software simulations provide NASA engineers the ability to experiment with spacecraft systems in a computer-imitated environment. Engineers currently develop software models that encapsulate spacecraft system behavior. These models can be inaccurate due to invalid assumptions, erroneous operation, or system evolution. Increasing accuracy requires manual calibration and domain-specific knowledge. This thesis presents a method for automatically learning system models without any assumptions regarding system behavior. Data stream mining techniques are applied to learn models for critical portions of the International Space Station (ISS) Electrical Power System (EPS). We also explore a knowledge fusion approach that uses traditional engineered EPS models to supplement the learned models. We observed that these engineered EPS models provide useful background knowledge to reduce predictive error spikes when confronted with making predictions in situations that are quite different from the training scenarios used when learning the model. Evaluations using ISS sensor data and existing EPS models demonstrate the success of the adaptive approach. Our experimental results show that adaptive modeling provides reductions in model error anywhere from 80% to 96% over these existing models. Final discussions include impending use of adaptive modeling technology for ISS mission operations and the need for adaptive modeling in future NASA lunar and Martian exploration.
Modeling an autonomous wind turbine electric pump system
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andreea Forcos
2009-10-01
Full Text Available Being one of the variable renewable energy sources, wind energy integration can be made using storage methods. All of these have been developed during time, but one might be more accessible than others because is using a free natural resource, water. This is pump storage. The purpose of this paper is modeling an autonomous wind turbine connected to an electric pump, in the aim of storage, and finally the determination of the efficiency.
Modeling electric fields in two dimensions using computer aided design
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gilmore, D.W.; Giovanetti, D.
1992-01-01
The authors describe a method for analyzing static electric fields in two dimensions using AutoCAD. The algorithm is coded in LISP and is modeled after Coloumb's Law. The software platform allows for facile graphical manipulations of field renderings and supports a wide range of hardcopy-output and data-storage formats. More generally, this application is representative of the ability to analyze data that is the solution to known mathematical functions with computer aided design (CAD)
A preon model with hidden electric and magnetic type charges
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pati, J.C.; Strathdee, J.
1980-11-01
The U(1) x U(1) binding forces in an earlier preonic composite model of quarks and leptons are interpreted as arising from hidden electric and magnetic type charges. The preons may possess intrinsic spin zero; the half-integer spins of the composites being contributed by the force field. The quark-lepton gauge symmetry is interpreted as an effective low-energy symmetry arising at the composite level. Some remarks are made regarding the possible composite nature of the graviton. (author)
Advanced Electric and Magnetic Material Models for FDTD Electromagnetic Codes
Poole, Brian R; Nelson, Scott D
2005-01-01
The modeling of dielectric and magnetic materials in the time domain is required for pulse power applications, pulsed induction accelerators, and advanced transmission lines. For example, most induction accelerator modules require the use of magnetic materials to provide adequate Volt-sec during the acceleration pulse. These models require hysteresis and saturation to simulate the saturation wavefront in a multipulse environment. In high voltage transmission line applications such as shock or soliton lines the dielectric is operating in a highly nonlinear regime, which requires nonlinear models. Simple 1-D models are developed for fast parameterization of transmission line structures. In the case of nonlinear dielectrics, a simple analytic model describing the permittivity in terms of electric field is used in a 3-D finite difference time domain code (FDTD). In the case of magnetic materials, both rate independent and rate dependent Hodgdon magnetic material models have been implemented into 3-D FDTD codes an...
ADVANCED ELECTRIC AND MAGNETIC MATERIAL MODELS FOR FDTD ELECTROMAGNETIC CODES
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Poole, B R; Nelson, S D; Langdon, S
2005-05-05
The modeling of dielectric and magnetic materials in the time domain is required for pulse power applications, pulsed induction accelerators, and advanced transmission lines. For example, most induction accelerator modules require the use of magnetic materials to provide adequate Volt-sec during the acceleration pulse. These models require hysteresis and saturation to simulate the saturation wavefront in a multipulse environment. In high voltage transmission line applications such as shock or soliton lines the dielectric is operating in a highly nonlinear regime, which require nonlinear models. Simple 1-D models are developed for fast parameterization of transmission line structures. In the case of nonlinear dielectrics, a simple analytic model describing the permittivity in terms of electric field is used in a 3-D finite difference time domain code (FDTD). In the case of magnetic materials, both rate independent and rate dependent Hodgdon magnetic material models have been implemented into 3-D FDTD codes and 1-D codes.
ADVANCED ELECTRIC AND MAGNETIC MATERIAL MODELS FOR FDTD ELECTROMAGNETIC CODES
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Poole, B R; Nelson, S D; Langdon, S
2005-01-01
The modeling of dielectric and magnetic materials in the time domain is required for pulse power applications, pulsed induction accelerators, and advanced transmission lines. For example, most induction accelerator modules require the use of magnetic materials to provide adequate Volt-sec during the acceleration pulse. These models require hysteresis and saturation to simulate the saturation wavefront in a multipulse environment. In high voltage transmission line applications such as shock or soliton lines the dielectric is operating in a highly nonlinear regime, which require nonlinear models. Simple 1-D models are developed for fast parameterization of transmission line structures. In the case of nonlinear dielectrics, a simple analytic model describing the permittivity in terms of electric field is used in a 3-D finite difference time domain code (FDTD). In the case of magnetic materials, both rate independent and rate dependent Hodgdon magnetic material models have been implemented into 3-D FDTD codes and 1-D codes
Models for electricity market efficiency and bidding strategy analysis
Niu, Hui
This dissertation studies models for the analysis of market efficiency and bidding behaviors of market participants in electricity markets. Simulation models are developed to estimate how transmission and operational constraints affect the competitive benchmark and market prices based on submitted bids. This research contributes to the literature in three aspects. First, transmission and operational constraints, which have been neglected in most empirical literature, are considered in the competitive benchmark estimation model. Second, the effects of operational and transmission constraints on market prices are estimated through two models based on the submitted bids of market participants. Third, these models are applied to analyze the efficiency of the Electric Reliability Council Of Texas (ERCOT) real-time energy market by simulating its operations for the time period from January 2002 to April 2003. The characteristics and available information for the ERCOT market are considered. In electricity markets, electric firms compete through both spot market bidding and bilateral contract trading. A linear asymmetric supply function equilibrium (SFE) model with transmission constraints is proposed in this dissertation to analyze the bidding strategies with forward contracts. The research contributes to the literature in several aspects. First, we combine forward contracts, transmission constraints, and multi-period strategy (an obligation for firms to bid consistently over an extended time horizon such as a day or an hour) into the linear asymmetric supply function equilibrium framework. As an ex-ante model, it can provide qualitative insights into firms' behaviors. Second, the bidding strategies related to Transmission Congestion Rights (TCRs) are discussed by interpreting TCRs as linear combination of forwards. Third, the model is a general one in the sense that there is no limitation on the number of firms and scale of the transmission network, which can have
Two-Stage Electricity Demand Modeling Using Machine Learning Algorithms
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Krzysztof Gajowniczek
2017-10-01
Full Text Available Forecasting of electricity demand has become one of the most important areas of research in the electric power industry, as it is a critical component of cost-efficient power system management and planning. In this context, accurate and robust load forecasting is supposed to play a key role in reducing generation costs, and deals with the reliability of the power system. However, due to demand peaks in the power system, forecasts are inaccurate and prone to high numbers of errors. In this paper, our contributions comprise a proposed data-mining scheme for demand modeling through peak detection, as well as the use of this information to feed the forecasting system. For this purpose, we have taken a different approach from that of time series forecasting, representing it as a two-stage pattern recognition problem. We have developed a peak classification model followed by a forecasting model to estimate an aggregated demand volume. We have utilized a set of machine learning algorithms to benefit from both accurate detection of the peaks and precise forecasts, as applied to the Polish power system. The key finding is that the algorithms can detect 96.3% of electricity peaks (load value equal to or above the 99th percentile of the load distribution and deliver accurate forecasts, with mean absolute percentage error (MAPE of 3.10% and resistant mean absolute percentage error (r-MAPE of 2.70% for the 24 h forecasting horizon.
Model Predictive Control for Connected Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kaijiang Yu
2015-01-01
Full Text Available This paper presents a new model predictive control system for connected hybrid electric vehicles to improve fuel economy. The new features of this study are as follows. First, the battery charge and discharge profile and the driving velocity profile are simultaneously optimized. One is energy management for HEV for Pbatt; the other is for the energy consumption minimizing problem of acc control of two vehicles. Second, a system for connected hybrid electric vehicles has been developed considering varying drag coefficients and the road gradients. Third, the fuel model of a typical hybrid electric vehicle is developed using the maps of the engine efficiency characteristics. Fourth, simulations and analysis (under different parameters, i.e., road conditions, vehicle state of charge, etc. are conducted to verify the effectiveness of the method to achieve higher fuel efficiency. The model predictive control problem is solved using numerical computation method: continuation and generalized minimum residual method. Computer simulation results reveal improvements in fuel economy using the proposed control method.
Modelling of radial electric field profile for different divertor configurations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rozhansky, V; Kaveeva, E; Voskoboynikov, S; Counsell, G; Kirk, A; Meyer, H; Coster, D; Conway, G; Schirmer, J; Schneider, R
2006-01-01
The impact of divertor configuration on the structure of the radial electric field has been simulated by the B2SOLPS5.0 transport fluid code. It is shown that the change in the parallel flows in the scrape-off layer, which are transported through the separatrix due to turbulent viscosity and diffusivity, should result in variation of the radial electric field and toroidal rotation in the separatrix vicinity. The modelling predictions are compared with the measurements of the radial electric field for the low field side equatorial mid-plane of ASDEX Upgrade in lower, upper and double-null (DN) divertor configurations. The parallel (toroidal) flows in the scrape-off layer and mechanisms for their formation are analysed for different geometries. It is demonstrated that a spike in the electric field exists at the high field side equatorial mid-plane in the connected DN divertor configuration. Its origin is connected with different potential drops between the separatrix vicinity and divertor plates in the two disconnected scrape-off layers, while the separatrix should be at almost the same potential. The spike might be important for additional turbulent suppression
Liu, Xuejiao; Lu, Benzhuo
2017-12-01
Potassium channels are much more permeable to potassium than sodium ions, although potassium ions are larger and both carry the same positive charge. This puzzle cannot be solved based on the traditional Poisson-Nernst-Planck (PNP) theory of electrodiffusion because the PNP model treats all ions as point charges, does not incorporate ion size information, and therefore cannot discriminate potassium from sodium ions. The PNP model can qualitatively capture some macroscopic properties of certain channel systems such as current-voltage characteristics, conductance rectification, and inverse membrane potential. However, the traditional PNP model is a continuum mean-field model and has no or underestimates the discrete ion effects, in particular the ion solvation or self-energy (which can be described by Born model). It is known that the dehydration effect (closely related to ion size) is crucial to selective permeation in potassium channels. Therefore, we incorporated Born solvation energy into the PNP model to account for ion hydration and dehydration effects when passing through inhomogeneous dielectric channel environments. A variational approach was adopted to derive a Born-energy-modified PNP (BPNP) model. The model was applied to study a cylindrical nanopore and a realistic KcsA channel, and three-dimensional finite element simulations were performed. The BPNP model can distinguish different ion species by ion radius and predict selectivity for K+ over Na+ in KcsA channels. Furthermore, ion current rectification in the KcsA channel was observed by both the PNP and BPNP models. The I -V curve of the BPNP model for the KcsA channel indicated an inward rectifier effect for K+ (rectification ratio of ˜3 /2 ) but indicated an outward rectifier effect for Na+ (rectification ratio of ˜1 /6 ) .
Electricity Demand Forecasting Using a Functional State Space Model
Nagbe , Komi; Cugliari , Jairo; Jacques , Julien
2018-01-01
In the last past years the liberalization of the electricity supply, the increase variability of electric appliances and their use, and the need to respond to the electricity demand in the real time had made electricity demand forecasting a challenge. To this challenge, many solutions are being proposed. The electricity demand involves many sources such as economic activities, household need and weather sources. All this sources make hard electricity demand forecasting. To forecast the electr...
Space-time modeling of electricity spot prices
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Abate, Girum Dagnachew; Haldrup, Niels
In this paper we derive a space-time model for electricity spot prices. A general spatial Durbin model that incorporates the temporal as well as spatial lags of spot prices is presented. Joint modeling of space-time effects is necessarily important when prices and loads are determined in a network...... in the spot price dynamics. Estimation of the spatial Durbin model show that the spatial lag variable is as important as the temporal lag variable in describing the spot price dynamics. We use the partial derivatives impact approach to decompose the price impacts into direct and indirect effects and we show...... that price effects transmit to neighboring markets and decline with distance. In order to examine the evolution of the spatial correlation over time, a time varying parameters spot price spatial Durbin model is estimated using recursive estimation. It is found that the spatial correlation within the Nord...
A Hybrid Setarx Model for Spikes in Tight Electricity Markets
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Carlo Lucheroni
2012-01-01
Full Text Available The paper discusses a simple looking but highly nonlinear regime-switching, self-excited threshold model for hourly electricity prices in continuous and discrete time. The regime structure of the model is linked to organizational features of the market. In continuous time, the model can include spikes without using jumps, by defining stochastic orbits. In passing from continuous time to discrete time, the stochastic orbits survive discretization and can be identified again as spikes. A calibration technique suitable for the discrete version of this model, which does not need deseasonalization or spike filtering, is developed, tested and applied to market data. The discussion of the properties of the model uses phase-space analysis, an approach uncommon in econometrics. (original abstract
A novel electrical model of nerve and muscle using Pspice
Peasgood, W; Lam, C K; Armstrong, A G; Wood, W
2003-01-01
In this work, a model is developed to simulate the biological processes involved in nerve fibre transmission and subsequent muscle contraction. The model has been based on approximating biological structure and function to electrical circuits and as such was implemented on an electronics simulation software package called Pspice. Models of nerve, the nerve-muscle interface and muscle fibre have been implemented. The time dependent ionic properties of the nerve and muscle membranes have been simulated using the Hodgkin-Huxley equations and for the muscle fibre, the implementation of the Huxley sliding filament theory for muscular contraction. The results show that nerve may be considered as a fractal transmission line and that the amplitude of the nerve membrane depolarization is dependent on the dimensions of the fibre. Additionally, simulation of the nerve-muscle interface allows the fractal nerve model to be connected to the muscle fibre model and it is shown that a two sarcomere molecular simulation can pr...
Transport modelling including radial electric field and plasma rotation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fukuyama, A.; Fuji, Y.; Itoh, S.-I.
1994-01-01
Using a simple turbulent transport model with a constant diffusion coefficient and a fixed temperature profile, the density profile in a steady state and the transient behaviour during the co and counter neutral beam injection are studied. More consistent analysis has been initiated with a turbulent transport model based on the current diffusive high-n ballooning mode. The enhancement of the radial electric field due to ion orbit losses and the reduction of the transport due to the poloidal rotation shear are demonstrated. The preliminary calculation indicates a sensitive temperature dependence of the density profile. (author)
An electrical circuit model for simulation of indoor radon concentration.
Musavi Nasab, S M; Negarestani, A
2013-01-01
In this study, a new model based on electric circuit theory was introduced to simulate the behaviour of indoor radon concentration. In this model, a voltage source simulates radon generation in walls, conductivity simulates migration through walls and voltage across a capacitor simulates radon concentration in a room. This simulation considers migration of radon through walls by diffusion mechanism in one-dimensional geometry. Data reported in a typical Greek house were employed to examine the application of this technique of simulation to the behaviour of radon.
Walther, Sophia; Guanter, Luis; Voigt, Maximilian; Köhler, Philipp; Jung, Martin; Joiner, Joanna
2015-04-01
sophia.walther@gfz-potsdam.de The seasonality of photosynthesis of boreal forests is an essential driver of the terrestrial carbon, water and energy cycles. However, current carbon cycle model results only poorly represent interannual variability and predict very different magnitudes and timings of carbon fluxes between the atmosphere and the land surface (e.g. Jung et al. 2011, Richardson et al. 2012). Reflectance-based satellite measurements, which give an indication of the amount of green biomass on the Earth's surface, have so far been used as input to global carbon cycle simulations, but they have limitations as they are not directly linked to instantaneous photosynthesis. As an alternative, space-borne retrievals of sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) boast the potential to provide a direct indication of the seasonality of boreal forest photosynthetic activity and thus to improve carbon model performances. SIF is a small electromagnetic signal that is re-emitted from the photosystems in the chloroplasts, which results in a direct relationship to photosynthetic efficiency. In this contribution we examine the seasonality of the boreal forests with three different vegetation parameters, namely greenness, SIF and model simulations of gross primary production (gross carbon flux into the plants by photosynthesis, GPP). We use the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) to represent green biomass. EVI is calculated from NBAR MODIS reflectance measurements (0.05deg, 16 days temporal resolution) for the time from January 2007-May 2013. SIF data originate from GOME-2 measurements on board the MetOp-A satellite in a spatial resolution of 0.5deg for the time from 2007-2011 (Joiner et al. (2013), Köhler et al. (2014)). As a third data source, data-driven GPP model results are used for the time from 2006-2012 with 0.5deg spatial resolution. The method to quantify phenology developed by Gonsamo et al. (2013) is applied to infer the main phenological phases (greenup/onset of
Water Constraints in an Electric Sector Capacity Expansion Model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Macknick, Jordan [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cohen, Stuart [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Newmark, Robin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Martinez, Andrew [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Tidwell, Vince [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
2015-07-17
This analysis provides a description of the first U.S. national electricity capacity expansion model to incorporate water resource availability and costs as a constraint for the future development of the electricity sector. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model was modified to incorporate water resource availability constraints and costs in each of its 134 Balancing Area (BA) regions along with differences in costs and efficiencies of cooling systems. Water resource availability and cost data are from recently completed research at Sandia National Laboratories (Tidwell et al. 2013b). Scenarios analyzed include a business-as-usual 3 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications. scenario without water constraints as well as four scenarios that include water constraints and allow for different cooling systems and types of water resources to be utilized. This analysis provides insight into where water resource constraints could affect the choice, configuration, or location of new electricity technologies.
A distributed parameter wire model for transient electrical discharges
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Maier, W.B. II; Kadish, A.; Sutherland, C.D.; Robiscoe, R.T.
1990-01-01
A model for freely propagating transient electrical discharges, such as lightning and punch-through arcs, is developed in this paper. We describe the electromagnetic fields by Maxwell's equations and we represent the interaction of electric fields with the medium to produce current by ∂J/∂t=ω 2 (E-E*J)/4π, where ω and E* are parameters characteristic of the medium, J≡current density, and J≡J/|J|. We illustrate the properties of this model for small-diameter, guided, cylindrically symmetric discharges. Analytic, numerical, and approximate solutions are given for special cases. The model describes, in a new and comprehensive fashion, certain macroscopic discharge properties, such as threshold behavior, quenching and reignition, path tortuosity, discharge termination with nonzero charge density remaining along the discharge path, and other experimentally observed discharge phenomena. Fields, current densities, and charge densities are quantitatively determined from given boundary and initial conditions. We suggest that many macroscopic discharge properties are properly explained by the model as electromagnetic phenomena, and we discuss extensions of the model to include chemistry, principally ionization and recombination
Electricity market equilibrium model with resource constraint and transmission congestion
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gao, F. [ABB, Inc., Santa Clara, CA 95050 (United States); Sheble, G.B. [Portland State University, Portland, OR 97207 (United States)
2010-01-15
Electricity market equilibrium model not only helps Independent System Operator/Regulator analyze market performance and market power, but also provides Market Participants the ability to build optimal bidding strategies based on Microeconomics analysis. Supply Function Equilibrium (SFE) is attractive compared to traditional models and many efforts have been made on it before. However, most past research focused on a single-period, single-market model and did not address the fact that GENCOs hold a portfolio of assets in both electricity and fuel markets. This paper first identifies a proper SFE model, which can be applied to a multiple-period situation. Then the paper develops the equilibrium condition using discrete time optimal control considering fuel resource constraints. Finally, the paper discusses the issues of multiple equilibria caused by transmission network and shows that a transmission constrained equilibrium may exist, however the shadow price may not be zero. Additionally, an advantage from the proposed model for merchant transmission planning is discussed. (author)
Electricity market equilibrium model with resource constraint and transmission congestion
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gao, F.; Sheble, G.B.
2010-01-01
Electricity market equilibrium model not only helps Independent System Operator/Regulator analyze market performance and market power, but also provides Market Participants the ability to build optimal bidding strategies based on Microeconomics analysis. Supply Function Equilibrium (SFE) is attractive compared to traditional models and many efforts have been made on it before. However, most past research focused on a single-period, single-market model and did not address the fact that GENCOs hold a portfolio of assets in both electricity and fuel markets. This paper first identifies a proper SFE model, which can be applied to a multiple-period situation. Then the paper develops the equilibrium condition using discrete time optimal control considering fuel resource constraints. Finally, the paper discusses the issues of multiple equilibria caused by transmission network and shows that a transmission constrained equilibrium may exist, however the shadow price may not be zero. Additionally, an advantage from the proposed model for merchant transmission planning is discussed. (author)
Rethinking Use of the OML Model in Electric Sail Development
Stone, Nobie H.
2016-01-01
In 1924, Irvin Langmuir and H. M. Mott-Smith published a theoretical model for the complex plasma sheath phenomenon in which they identified some very special cases which greatly simplified the sheath and allowed a closed solution to the problem. The most widely used application is for an electrostatic, or "Langmuir," probe in laboratory plasma. Although the Langmuir probe is physically simple (a biased wire) the theory describing its functional behavior and its current-voltage characteristic is extremely complex and, accordingly, a number of assumptions and approximations are used in the LMS model. These simplifications, correspondingly, place limits on the model's range of application. Adapting the LMS model to real-life conditions is the subject of numerous papers and dissertations. The Orbit-Motion Limited (OML) model that is widely used today is one of these adaptions that is a convenient means of calculating sheath effects. Since the Langmuir probe is a simple biased wire immersed in plasma, it is particularly tempting to use the OML equation in calculating the characteristics of the long, highly biased wires of an Electric Sail in the solar wind plasma. However, in order to arrive at the OML equation, a number of additional simplifying assumptions and approximations (beyond those made by Langmuir-Mott-Smith) are necessary. The OML equation is a good approximation when all conditions are met, but it would appear that the Electric Sail problem lies outside of the limits of applicability.
Electric dipole moments in two-Higgs-doublet models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jung, Martin [Institut für Physik, Technische Universität Dortmund,Otto-Hahn-Str. 4, D-44221 Dortmund (Germany); Pich, Antonio [IFIC, Universitat de València - CSIC,Apt. Correos 22085, E-46071 València (Spain)
2014-04-10
Electric dipole moments are extremely sensitive probes for additional sources of CP violation in new physics models. Specifically, they have been argued in the past to exclude new CP-violating phases in two-Higgs-doublet models. Since recently models including such phases have been discussed widely, we revisit the available constraints in the presence of mechanisms which are typically invoked to evade flavour-changing neutral currents. To that aim, we start by assessing the necessary calculations on the hadronic, nuclear and atomic/molecular level, deriving expressions with conservative error estimates. Their phenomenological analysis in the context of two-Higgs-doublet models yields strong constraints, in some cases weakened by a cancellation mechanism among contributions from neutral scalars. While the corresponding parameter combinations do not yet have to be unnaturally small, the constraints are likely to preclude large effects in other CP-violating observables. Nevertheless, the generically expected contributions to electric dipole moments in this class of models lie within the projected sensitivity of the next-generation experiments.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Morais, A. P. [Biomedical Engineering Program, COPPE, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil); Salgado de Oliveira University, Marechal Deodoro Street, 217 – Centro, Niterói, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil); Pino, A. V. [Biomedical Engineering Program, COPPE, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil); Souza, M. N. [Biomedical Engineering Program, COPPE, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil); Electronics Department at Polytechnic School, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Centro de Tecnologia Bloco H sala 217, Ilha do Fundão, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)
2016-08-15
This in vitro study evaluated the diagnostic performance of an alternative electric bioimpedance spectroscopy technique (BIS-STEP) detect questionable occlusal carious lesions. Six specialists carried out the visual (V), radiography (R), and combined (VR) exams of 57 sound or non-cavitated occlusal carious lesion teeth classifying the occlusal surfaces in sound surface (H), enamel caries (EC), and dentinal caries (DC). Measurements were based on the current response to a step voltage excitation (BIS-STEP). A fractional electrical model was used to predict the current response in the time domain and to estimate the model parameters: Rs and Rp (resistive parameters), and C and α (fractional parameters). Histological analysis showed caries prevalence of 33.3% being 15.8% hidden caries. Combined examination obtained the best traditional diagnostic results with specificity = 59.0%, sensitivity = 70.9%, and accuracy = 60.8%. There were statistically significant differences in bioimpedance parameters between the H and EC groups (p = 0.016) and between the H and DC groups (Rs, p = 0.006; Rp, p = 0.022, and α, p = 0.041). Using a suitable threshold for the Rs, we obtained specificity = 60.7%, sensitivity = 77.9%, accuracy = 73.2%, and 100% of detection for deep lesions. It can be concluded that BIS-STEP method could be an important tool to improve the detection and management of occlusal non-cavitated primary caries and pigmented sites.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Morais, A. P.; Pino, A. V.; Souza, M. N.
2016-01-01
This in vitro study evaluated the diagnostic performance of an alternative electric bioimpedance spectroscopy technique (BIS-STEP) detect questionable occlusal carious lesions. Six specialists carried out the visual (V), radiography (R), and combined (VR) exams of 57 sound or non-cavitated occlusal carious lesion teeth classifying the occlusal surfaces in sound surface (H), enamel caries (EC), and dentinal caries (DC). Measurements were based on the current response to a step voltage excitation (BIS-STEP). A fractional electrical model was used to predict the current response in the time domain and to estimate the model parameters: Rs and Rp (resistive parameters), and C and α (fractional parameters). Histological analysis showed caries prevalence of 33.3% being 15.8% hidden caries. Combined examination obtained the best traditional diagnostic results with specificity = 59.0%, sensitivity = 70.9%, and accuracy = 60.8%. There were statistically significant differences in bioimpedance parameters between the H and EC groups (p = 0.016) and between the H and DC groups (Rs, p = 0.006; Rp, p = 0.022, and α, p = 0.041). Using a suitable threshold for the Rs, we obtained specificity = 60.7%, sensitivity = 77.9%, accuracy = 73.2%, and 100% of detection for deep lesions. It can be concluded that BIS-STEP method could be an important tool to improve the detection and management of occlusal non-cavitated primary caries and pigmented sites.
Dynamical analysis of uterine cell electrical activity model.
Rihana, S; Santos, J; Mondie, S; Marque, C
2006-01-01
The uterus is a physiological system consisting of a large number of interacting smooth muscle cells. The uterine excitability changes remarkably with time, generally quiescent during pregnancy, the uterus exhibits forceful synchronized contractions at term leading to fetus expulsion. These changes characterize thus a dynamical system susceptible of being studied through formal mathematical tools. Multiple physiological factors are involved in the regulation process of this complex system. Our aim is to relate the physiological factors to the uterine cell dynamic behaviors. Taking into account a previous work presented, in which the electrical activity of a uterine cell is described by a set of ordinary differential equations, we analyze the impact of physiological parameters on the response of the model, and identify the main subsystems generating the complex uterine electrical activity, with respect to physiological data.
Electric sail elliptic displaced orbits with advanced thrust model
Niccolai, Lorenzo; Quarta, Alessandro A.; Mengali, Giovanni
2017-09-01
This paper analyzes the performance of an Electric Solar Wind Sail for generating and maintaining an elliptic, heliocentric, displaced non-Keplerian orbit. In this sense, this paper extends and completes recent studies regarding the performances of an Electric Solar Wind Sail that covers a circular, heliocentric, displaced orbit of given characteristics. The paper presents the general equations that describe the elliptic orbit maintenance in terms of both spacecraft attitude and performance requirements, when a refined thrust model (recently proposed for the preliminary mission design) is taken into account. In particular, the paper also discusses some practical applications on particular mission scenarios in which an analytic solution of the governing equations has been found.
An electricity price model with consideration to load and gas price effects.
Huang, Min-xiang; Tao, Xiao-hu; Han, Zhen-xiang
2003-01-01
Some characteristics of the electricity load and prices are studied, and the relationship between electricity prices and gas (fuel) prices is analyzed in this paper. Because electricity prices are strongly dependent on load and gas prices, the authors constructed a model for electricity prices based on the effects of these two factors; and used the Geometric Mean Reversion Brownian Motion (GMRBM) model to describe the electricity load process, and a Geometric Brownian Motion(GBM) model to describe the gas prices; deduced the price stochastic process model based on the above load model and gas price model. This paper also presents methods for parameters estimation, and proposes some methods to solve the model.
Upton, J.R.; Murphy, M.; Shallo, L.; Groot Koerkamp, P.W.G.; Boer, de, I.J.M.
2014-01-01
Our objective was to define and demonstrate a mechanistic model that enables dairy farmers to explore the impact of a technical or managerial innovation on electricity consumption, associated CO2 emissions, and electricity costs. We, therefore, (1) defined a model for electricity consumption on dairy farms (MECD) capable of simulating total electricity consumption along with related CO2 emissions and electricity costs on dairy farms on a monthly basis; (2) validated the MECD using empirical d...
Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting Models by Aggregation of Competitive Predictors
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Claudio Monteiro
2018-04-01
Full Text Available This article presents original probabilistic price forecasting meta-models (PPFMCP models, by aggregation of competitive predictors, for day-ahead hourly probabilistic price forecasting. The best twenty predictors of the EEM2016 EPF competition are used to create ensembles of hourly spot price forecasts. For each hour, the parameter values of the probability density function (PDF of a Beta distribution for the output variable (hourly price can be directly obtained from the expected and variance values associated to the ensemble for such hour, using three aggregation strategies of predictor forecasts corresponding to three PPFMCP models. A Reliability Indicator (RI and a Loss function Indicator (LI are also introduced to give a measure of uncertainty of probabilistic price forecasts. The three PPFMCP models were satisfactorily applied to the real-world case study of the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL. Results from PPFMCP models showed that PPFMCP model 2, which uses aggregation by weight values according to daily ranks of predictors, was the best probabilistic meta-model from a point of view of mean absolute errors, as well as of RI and LI. PPFMCP model 1, which uses the averaging of predictor forecasts, was the second best meta-model. PPFMCP models allow evaluations of risk decisions based on the price to be made.
Research on potential user identification model for electric energy substitution
Xia, Huaijian; Chen, Meiling; Lin, Haiying; Yang, Shuo; Miao, Bo; Zhu, Xinzhi
2018-01-01
The implementation of energy substitution plays an important role in promoting the development of energy conservation and emission reduction in china. Energy service management platform of alternative energy users based on the data in the enterprise production value, product output, coal and other energy consumption as a potential evaluation index, using principal component analysis model to simplify the formation of characteristic index, comprehensive index contains the original variables, and using fuzzy clustering model for the same industry user’s flexible classification. The comprehensive index number and user clustering classification based on constructed particle optimization neural network classification model based on the user, user can replace electric potential prediction. The results of an example show that the model can effectively predict the potential of users’ energy potential.
Anatomically based lower limb nerve model for electrical stimulation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Soboleva Tanya K
2007-12-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Functional Electrical Stimulation (FES is a technique that aims to rehabilitate or restore functionality of skeletal muscles using external electrical stimulation. Despite the success achieved within the field of FES, there are still a number of questions that remain unanswered. One way of providing input to the answers is through the use of computational models. Methods This paper describes the development of an anatomically based computer model of the motor neurons in the lower limb of the human leg and shows how it can be used to simulate electrical signal propagation from the beginning of the sciatic nerve to a skeletal muscle. One-dimensional cubic Hermite finite elements were used to represent the major portions of the lower limb nerves. These elements were fit to data that had been digitised using images from the Visible Man project. Nerves smaller than approximately 1 mm could not be seen in the images, and thus a tree-branching algorithm was used to connect the ends of the fitted nerve model to the respective skeletal muscle. To simulate electrical propagation, a previously published mammalian nerve model was implemented and solved on the anatomically based nerve mesh using a finite difference method. The grid points for the finite difference method were derived from the fitted finite element mesh. By adjusting the tree-branching algorithm, it is possible to represent different levels of motor-unit recruitment. Results To illustrate the process of a propagating nerve stimulus to a muscle in detail, the above method was applied to the nerve tree that connects to the human semitendinosus muscle. A conduction velocity of 89.8 m/s was obtained for a 15 μm diameter nerve fibre. This signal was successfully propagated down the motor neurons to a selected group of motor units in the muscle. Conclusion An anatomically and physiologically based model of the posterior motor neurons in the human lower limb was developed. This
SAS-macros for estimation and prediction in an model of the electricity consumption
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
1998-01-01
SAS-macros for estimation and prediction in an model of the electricity consumption'' is a large collection of SAS-macros for handling a model of the electricity consumption in the Eastern Denmark. The macros are installed at Elkraft, Ballerup.......SAS-macros for estimation and prediction in an model of the electricity consumption'' is a large collection of SAS-macros for handling a model of the electricity consumption in the Eastern Denmark. The macros are installed at Elkraft, Ballerup....
Particle Based Modeling of Electrical Field Flow Fractionation Systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tonguc O. Tasci
2015-10-01
Full Text Available Electrical Field Flow Fractionation (ElFFF is a sub method in the field flow fractionation (FFF family that relies on an applied voltage on the channel walls to effect a separation. ElFFF has fallen behind some of the other FFF methods because of the optimization complexity of its experimental parameters. To enable better optimization, a particle based model of the ElFFF systems has been developed and is presented in this work that allows the optimization of the main separation parameters, such as electric field magnitude, frequency, duty cycle, offset, flow rate and channel dimensions. The developed code allows visualization of individual particles inside the separation channel, generation of realistic fractograms, and observation of the effects of the various parameters on the behavior of the particle cloud. ElFFF fractograms have been generated via simulations and compared with experiments for both normal and cyclical ElFFF. The particle visualizations have been used to verify that high duty cycle voltages are essential to achieve long retention times and high resolution separations. Furthermore, by simulating the particle motions at the channel outlet, it has been demonstrated that the top channel wall should be selected as the accumulation wall for cyclical ElFFF to reduce band broadening and achieve high efficiency separations. While the generated particle based model is a powerful tool to estimate the outcomes of the ElFFF experiments and visualize particle motions, it can also be used to design systems with new geometries which may lead to the design of higher efficiency ElFFF systems. Furthermore, this model can be extended to other FFF techniques by replacing the electrical field component of the model with the fields used in the other FFF techniques.
Dynamic intelligent cleaning model of dirty electric load data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang Xiaoxing; Sun Caixin
2008-01-01
There are a number of dirty data in the load database derived from the supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system. Thus, the data must be carefully and reasonably adjusted before it is used for electric load forecasting or power system analysis. This paper proposes a dynamic and intelligent data cleaning model based on data mining theory. Firstly, on the basis of fuzzy soft clustering, the Kohonen clustering network is improved to fulfill the parallel calculation of fuzzy c-means soft clustering. Then, the proposed dynamic algorithm can automatically find the new clustering center (the characteristic curve of the data) with the updated sample data; At last, it is composed with radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), and then, an intelligent adjusting model is proposed to identify the dirty data. The rapid and dynamic performance of the model makes it suitable for real time calculation, and the efficiency and accuracy of the model is proved by test results of electrical load data analysis in Chongqing
Predictive Models for Photovoltaic Electricity Production in Hot Weather Conditions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jabar H. Yousif
2017-07-01
Full Text Available The process of finding a correct forecast equation for photovoltaic electricity production from renewable sources is an important matter, since knowing the factors affecting the increase in the proportion of renewable energy production and reducing the cost of the product has economic and scientific benefits. This paper proposes a mathematical model for forecasting energy production in photovoltaic (PV panels based on a self-organizing feature map (SOFM model. The proposed model is compared with other models, including the multi-layer perceptron (MLP and support vector machine (SVM models. Moreover, a mathematical model based on a polynomial function for fitting the desired output is proposed. Different practical measurement methods are used to validate the findings of the proposed neural and mathematical models such as mean square error (MSE, mean absolute error (MAE, correlation (R, and coefficient of determination (R2. The proposed SOFM model achieved a final MSE of 0.0007 in the training phase and 0.0005 in the cross-validation phase. In contrast, the SVM model resulted in a small MSE value equal to 0.0058, while the MLP model achieved a final MSE of 0.026 with a correlation coefficient of 0.9989, which indicates a strong relationship between input and output variables. The proposed SOFM model closely fits the desired results based on the R2 value, which is equal to 0.9555. Finally, the comparison results of MAE for the three models show that the SOFM model achieved a best result of 0.36156, whereas the SVM and MLP models yielded 4.53761 and 3.63927, respectively. A small MAE value indicates that the output of the SOFM model closely fits the actual results and predicts the desired output.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Diaz de Cerio Mendaza, Iker; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Chen, Zhe
2013-01-01
The last fifteen years many European countries have integrated large percentage of renewable energy on their electricity generation mix. In Denmark the 21.3% of the electricity consumed nowadays is produced by the wind, and it has planned to be the 50% by 2025. In order to front future challenges...... on the power system control and operation, created by this unstable way of generation, Demand Side Management turns to be a promising solution. The storage capacity from thermo-electric units, like electric boilers and heat pumps, allows operating them with certain freedom. Hence they can be employed under...... certain coordination, to actively respond to the power system fluctuations. The following paper presents two simple thermo-electrical models of an electrical boiler and an air-source CO2 heat pump system. The purpose is using them in low voltage grids analysis to assess their capacity and flexibility...
Letter to the Editor: Electric Vehicle Demand Model for Load Flow Studies
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Garcia-Valle, Rodrigo; Vlachogiannis, Ioannis (John)
2009-01-01
This paper introduces specific and simple model for electric vehicles suitable for load flow studies. The electric vehicles demand system is modelled as PQ bus with stochastic characteristics based on the concept of queuing theory. All appropriate variables of stochastic PQ buses are given...... with closed formulae as a function of charging time. Specific manufacturer model of electric vehicles is used as study case....
Total life cycle cost model for electric power stations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cardullo, M.W.
1995-01-01
The Total Life Cycle Cost (TLCC) model for electric power stations was developed to provide a technology screening model. The TLCC analysis involves normalizing cost estimates with respect to performance standards and financial assumptions and preparing a profile of all costs over the service life of the power station. These costs when levelized present a value in terms of a utility electricity rate. Comparison of cost and the pricing of the electricity for a utility shows if a valid project exists. Cost components include both internal and external costs. Internal costs are direct costs associated with the purchase, and operation of the power station and include initial capital costs, operating and maintenance costs. External costs result from societal and/or environmental impacts that are external to the marketplace and can include air quality impacts due to emissions, infrastructure costs, and other impacts. The cost stream is summed (current dollars) or discounted (constant dollars) to some base year to yield a overall TLCC of each power station technology on a common basis. While minimizing life cycle cost is an important consideration, it may not always be a preferred method for some utilities who may prefer minimizing capital costs. Such consideration does not always result in technology penetration in a marketplace such as the utility sector. Under various regulatory climates, the utility is likely to heavily weigh initial capital costs while giving limited consideration to other costs such as societal costs. Policy makers considering external costs, such as those resulting from environmental impacts, may reach significantly different conclusions about which technologies are most advantageous to society. The TLCC analysis model for power stations was developed to facilitate consideration of all perspectives
Neutron electric dipole moment and extension of the standard model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Oshimo, Noriyuki
2001-01-01
A nonvanishing value for the electric dipole moment (EDM) of the neutron is a prominent signature for CP violation. The EDM induced by the Kobayashi-Maskawa mechanism of the standard model (SM) has a small magnitude and its detection will be very difficult. However, since baryon asymmetry of the universe cannot be accounted for by the SM, there should exist some other source of CP violation, which may generate a large magnitude for the EDM. One of the most hopeful candidates for physics beyond the SM is the supersymmetric standard model, which contains such sources of CP violation. This model suggests that the EDM has a magnitude not much smaller than the present experimental bounds. Progress in measuring the EDM provides very interesting information about extension of the SM. (author)
Nucleon electric dipole moments in high-scale supersymmetric models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hisano, Junji; Kobayashi, Daiki; Kuramoto, Wataru; Kuwahara, Takumi
2015-01-01
The electric dipole moments (EDMs) of electron and nucleons are promising probes of the new physics. In generic high-scale supersymmetric (SUSY) scenarios such as models based on mixture of the anomaly and gauge mediations, gluino has an additional contribution to the nucleon EDMs. In this paper, we studied the effect of the CP-violating gluon Weinberg operator induced by the gluino chromoelectric dipole moment in the high-scale SUSY scenarios, and we evaluated the nucleon and electron EDMs in the scenarios. We found that in the generic high-scale SUSY models, the nucleon EDMs may receive the sizable contribution from the Weinberg operator. Thus, it is important to compare the nucleon EDMs with the electron one in order to discriminate among the high-scale SUSY models.
Haulage trucks model with four electric separate wheel drives
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
R. Setlak
2005-02-01
Full Text Available This article contains a course of work of the construction of a vehicle model that has four electrical motors built into each wheel. During the project two models of a vehicle were constructed. A microprocessor based control system has also been designed and built. A vehicle is controlled by a steering unit which contains a steering wheel with a force feedback system, push buttons, an accelerator and a brake. The connection between a steering unit and a model is realized by interface RS-485. The driving motors are dc motors with permanent magnets. Power supply consists of an acid battery located in the vehicle. The vehicle control system is divided into two parts. The first part is built into the vehicle and operates as a vehicle main control system and the second is built into a steering unit and operates as the main control steering system.
Modeling Electric Double-Layers Including Chemical Reaction Effects
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Paz-Garcia, Juan Manuel; Johannesson, Björn; Ottosen, Lisbeth M.
2014-01-01
A physicochemical and numerical model for the transient formation of an electric double-layer between an electrolyte and a chemically-active flat surface is presented, based on a finite elements integration of the nonlinear Nernst-Planck-Poisson model including chemical reactions. The model works...... for symmetric and asymmetric multi-species electrolytes and is not limited to a range of surface potentials. Numerical simulations are presented, for the case of a CaCO3 electrolyte solution in contact with a surface with rate-controlled protonation/deprotonation reactions. The surface charge and potential...... are determined by the surface reactions, and therefore they depends on the bulk solution composition and concentration...
Nucleon electric dipole moments in high-scale supersymmetric models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hisano, Junji [Kobayashi-Maskawa Institute for the Origin of Particles and the Universe (KMI),Nagoya University,Nagoya 464-8602 (Japan); Department of Physics, Nagoya University,Nagoya 464-8602 (Japan); Kavli IPMU (WPI), UTIAS, University of Tokyo,Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8584 (Japan); Kobayashi, Daiki; Kuramoto, Wataru; Kuwahara, Takumi [Department of Physics, Nagoya University,Nagoya 464-8602 (Japan)
2015-11-12
The electric dipole moments (EDMs) of electron and nucleons are promising probes of the new physics. In generic high-scale supersymmetric (SUSY) scenarios such as models based on mixture of the anomaly and gauge mediations, gluino has an additional contribution to the nucleon EDMs. In this paper, we studied the effect of the CP-violating gluon Weinberg operator induced by the gluino chromoelectric dipole moment in the high-scale SUSY scenarios, and we evaluated the nucleon and electron EDMs in the scenarios. We found that in the generic high-scale SUSY models, the nucleon EDMs may receive the sizable contribution from the Weinberg operator. Thus, it is important to compare the nucleon EDMs with the electron one in order to discriminate among the high-scale SUSY models.
R,D&I in Electric Sector: a Management Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Edmilson Alves de Moraes
2013-04-01
Full Text Available This study was carried out with the support of the companies of Eletrobras (Chesf, Furnas, Eletronorte and Eletrosul and seeks to develop an integrated management model that incorporates technology and innovation. The model should be concerned with the performance of companies, aligning R, D&I [Research, Development and Innovation] projects with business strategies. The project was undertaken by an in-depth bibliographical review of the subject and a series of guided interviews. These interviews were conducted in both national and international companies that were regarded as innovative in several different sectors, in an attempt to identify practices that could be employed by companies in the electric sector. The findings of this research allowed the development of an integrated R,D&I Management model which is formally set out here as the results of this study.
Grounding modelling for transient overvoltage simulation in electric power transmission
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Moreno O, German; Valencia V, Jaime A; Villada, Fernando
1992-01-01
Grounding plays an important role in transmission line outages and consequently on electric energy transmission quality indexes. Fundamentals of an accurate modelling for transient behaviour analysis, particularly for the response of transmission lines to lightning, are presented. Also, a method to take into account the electromagnetic propagation guided by the grounding electrodes and finally to assess the grounding impedance in order to simulate the transmission line behaviour under lightning is presented. Analysis of impedance behaviour for diverse configurations and simulation results of over voltages on a real 220 kV line are presented to illustrate the capabilities of the method and of the computational program developed
TU Electric reactor physics model verification: Power reactor benchmark
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Willingham, C.E.; Killgore, M.R.
1988-01-01
Power reactor benchmark calculations using the advanced code package CASMO-3/SIMULATE-3 have been performed for six cycles of Prairie Island Unit 1. The reload fuel designs for the selected cycles included gadolinia as a burnable absorber, natural uranium axial blankets and increased water-to-fuel ratio. The calculated results for both startup reactor physics tests (boron endpoints, control rod worths, and isothermal temperature coefficients) and full power depletion results were compared to measured plant data. These comparisons show that the TU Electric reactor physics models accurately predict important measured parameters for power reactors
Optimizing electricity distribution using two-stage integer recourse models
Klein Haneveld, W.K.; van der Vlerk, Maarten H.
2000-01-01
We consider two planning problems faced by an electricity distributor. Electricity can be ob-tained both from power plants and small generators such as hospitals and greenhouses, whereas the future demand for electricity is uncertain. The price of electricity obtained from the power plants depends
Optimizing electricity distribution using two-stage integer recourse models
Klein Haneveld, W.K.; van der Vlerk, M.H.; Uryasev, SP; Pardalos, PM
2001-01-01
We consider two planning problems faced by an electricity distributor. Electricity can be obtained both from power plants and small generators such as hospitals and greenhouses, whereas the future demand for electricity is uncertain. The price of electricity obtained from the power plants depends on
Exploration of dispatch model integrating wind generators and electric vehicles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Haque, A.N.M.M.; Ibn Saif, A.U.N.; Nguyen, P.H.; Torbaghan, S.S.
2016-01-01
Highlights: • A novel business model for the BRPs is analyzed. • Imbalance cost of wind generation is considered in the UC-ED model. • Smart charging of EVs is included into the UC-ED problem to mitigate the imbalance cost. • Effects of smart charging on generation cost, CO 2 emissions and total network load are assessed. - Abstract: In recent years, the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in the electricity generation mix has been expanding rapidly. However, limited predictability of the RES poses challenges for traditional scheduling and dispatching mechanisms based on unit commitment (UC) and economic dispatch (ED). This paper presents an advanced UC-ED model to incorporate wind generators as RES-based units alongside conventional centralized generators. In the proposed UC-ED model, an imbalance cost is introduced reflecting the wind generation uncertainty along with the marginal generation cost. The proposed UC-ED model aims to utilize the flexibility of fleets of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) to optimally compensate for the wind generation uncertainty. A case study with 15 conventional units and 3 wind farms along with a fixed-sized PEV fleet demonstrates that shifting of PEV fleets charging at times of high wind availability realizes generation cost savings. Nevertheless, the operational cost saving incurred by controlled charging appears to diminish when dispatched wind energy becomes considerably larger than the charging energy of PEV fleets. Further analysis of the results reveals that the effectiveness of PEV control strategy in terms of CO 2 emission reduction is strongly coupled with generation mix and the proposed control strategy is favored in cases where less pollutant-based plants like nuclear and hydro power are profoundly dominant.
Modeling transport and reaction in an electric DC field
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Arnerdal, K.; Neretnieks, I. [Dept. of Chemical Engineering and Technology, Royal Inst. of Tech. (Sweden)
2001-07-01
Remediation of contaminated soils from heavy metals can be accomplished by subjecting the soil to an electric DC field. In an electric field dissolved metals will move to either the cathode or the anode depending on their charges. During the course of remediation, precipitated and sorbed species will dissolve as the solute is depleted. Our previous remediation experiments on kaolinite soil and sandy loam show high remediation efficiency. In new experiments we studied the reaction and transport of copper in sand and sand/bentonite mixtures with a constant applied potential. For clays with high pH buffer capacity and cation exchange capacity the results were not satisfying, because of insufficient desorption of the metals from the clay. The parameters measured at different time intervals were potential gradient, current density, pH and metal concentration. We present a mathematical and numerical model that is used for interpretation of the results from the remediation experiments. The model uses electromigration and diffusion to describe the transport of heavy metals and other ions. The remediation experiments are supplemented by batch experiments used to assess the acid neutralisation capacity and sorption distribution coefficients at different pH's for the heavy metal ions. These are essential data needed for the modelling and can be used to assess if a remediation could be accomplished within reasonable time. The results show that the reaction data used to explain acid neutralisation capacity estimated in batch experiments can be used to model the main trends of the development of the current density and the potential profile. However the pH profile and the free copper concentration can not be modelled with this equilibrium description. (orig.)
Fogolari, Federico; Corazza, Alessandra; Esposito, Gennaro
2015-04-05
The generalized Born model in the Onufriev, Bashford, and Case (Onufriev et al., Proteins: Struct Funct Genet 2004, 55, 383) implementation has emerged as one of the best compromises between accuracy and speed of computation. For simulations of nucleic acids, however, a number of issues should be addressed: (1) the generalized Born model is based on a linear model and the linearization of the reference Poisson-Boltmann equation may be questioned for highly charged systems as nucleic acids; (2) although much attention has been given to potentials, solvation forces could be much less sensitive to linearization than the potentials; and (3) the accuracy of the Onufriev-Bashford-Case (OBC) model for nucleic acids depends on fine tuning of parameters. Here, we show that the linearization of the Poisson Boltzmann equation has mild effects on computed forces, and that with optimal choice of the OBC model parameters, solvation forces, essential for molecular dynamics simulations, agree well with those computed using the reference Poisson-Boltzmann model. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Economically optimized electricity trade modeling. Iran-Turkey case
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shakouri G, H.; Eghlimi, M.; Manzoor, D.
2009-01-01
The advantages of power trade between countries, which are attainable for various facts, are distinguished now. Daily differences in the peak-load times of neighboring countries commonly occur for differences in the longitudes of their location. Seasonal differences are also caused by differences in the latitudes leading to different climates. Consequently, different load curves help to have such a production schedule that reduces blackouts and investments for power generation by planning for a proper trade between countries in a region. This paper firstly describes the methodology and framework for the power trade and then the results of an optimal power trade model between Iran and Turkey, which shows a potential benefit for both countries by peak shaving, are presented. The results, in the worst case design, represent optimality of about 1500 MW electricity export from Iran to Turkey at the Turkish peak times, as well as 447 MW electricity import from Turkey at the Iranian peak times. In addition, results derived from running a Long-Run model show that there will be greater potential for power export from Iran to Turkey, which is a guideline of an energy conservation strategy for both countries in the future. (author)
Models of the electrically stimulated binaural system: A review.
Dietz, Mathias
2016-01-01
In an increasing number of countries, the standard treatment for deaf individuals is moving toward the implantation of two cochlear implants. Today's device technology and fitting procedure, however, appears as if the two implants would serve two independent ears and brains. Many experimental studies have demonstrated that after careful matching and balancing of left and right stimulation in controlled laboratory studies most patients have almost normal sensitivity to interaural level differences and some sensitivity to interaural time differences (ITDs). Mechanisms underlying the limited ITD sensitivity are still poorly understood and many different aspects may contribute. Recent pioneering computational approaches identified some of the functional implications the electric input imposes on the neural brainstem circuits. Simultaneously these studies have raised new questions and certainly demonstrated that further refinement of the model stages is necessary. They join the experimental study's conclusions that binaural device technology, binaural fitting, specific speech coding strategies, and binaural signal processing algorithms are obviously missing components to maximize the benefit of bilateral implantation. Within this review, the existing models of the electrically stimulated binaural system are explained, compared, and discussed from a viewpoint of a "CI device with auditory system" and from that of neurophysiological research.
Electric Water Heater Modeling and Control Strategies for Demand Response
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Diao, Ruisheng; Lu, Shuai; Elizondo, Marcelo A.; Mayhorn, Ebony T.; Zhang, Yu; Samaan, Nader A.
2012-07-22
Abstract— Demand response (DR) has a great potential to provide balancing services at normal operating conditions and emergency support when a power system is subject to disturbances. Effective control strategies can significantly relieve the balancing burden of conventional generators and reduce investment on generation and transmission expansion. This paper is aimed at modeling electric water heaters (EWH) in households and tests their response to control strategies to implement DR. The open-loop response of EWH to a centralized signal is studied by adjusting temperature settings to provide regulation services; and two types of decentralized controllers are tested to provide frequency support following generator trips. EWH models are included in a simulation platform in DIgSILENT to perform electromechanical simulation, which contains 147 households in a distribution feeder. Simulation results show the dependence of EWH response on water heater usage . These results provide insight suggestions on the need of control strategies to achieve better performance for demand response implementation. Index Terms— Centralized control, decentralized control, demand response, electrical water heater, smart grid
Neutron electric dipole moment in the minimal supersymmetric standard model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Inui, T.; Mimura, Y.; Sakai, N.; Sasaki, T.
1995-01-01
The neutron electric dipole moment (EDM) due to the single quark EDM and to the transition EDM is calculated in the minimal supersymmetric standard model. Assuming that the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix at the grand unification scale is the only source of CP violation, complex phases are induced in the parameters of soft supersymmetry breaking at low energies. The chargino one-loop diagram is found to give the dominant contribution of the order of 10 -27 similar 10 -29 e.cm for the quark EDM, assuming the light chargino mass and the universal scalar mass to be 50 GeV and 100 GeV, respectively. Therefore the neutron EDM in this class of model is difficult to measure experimentally. The gluino one-loop diagram also contributes due to the flavor changing gluino coupling. The transition EDM is found to give dominant contributions for certain parameter regions. (orig.)
Modeling electric bicycle's lane-changing and retrograde behaviors
Tang, Tie-Qiao; Luo, Xiao-Feng; Zhang, Jian; Chen, Liang
2018-01-01
Recently, electric bicycle (EB) has been one important traffic tool due to its own merits. However, EB's motion behaviors (especially at a signalized/non-signalized intersection) are more complex than those of vehicle since it always has lane-changing and retrograde behaviors. In this paper, we propose a model to explore EB's lane-changing and retrograde behaviors on a road with a signalized intersection. The numerical results indicate that the proposed model can qualitatively describe each EB's lane-changing and retrograde behaviors near a signalized intersection, and that lane-changing and retrograde behaviors have prominent impacts on the signalized intersection (i.e., prominent jams and congestions occur). The above results show that EB should be controlled as a vehicle, i.e., lane-changing and retrograde behaviors at a signalized intersection should strictly be prohibited to improve the operational efficiency and traffic safety at the signalized intersection.
An auction game model for pool-based electricity markets
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gan, Deqiang; Wang, Jianquan; Bourcier, Donald V.
2005-01-01
A single-period auction game model for analyzing strategic behavior in pool-based electricity markets is introduced in the paper. We study the Nash equilibrium in a pure strategy sense of such games. First an equilibrium existence lemma is proved. Equilibrium characterization under tight capacity constraints is provided. Then it is demonstrated that an auction game does not possess a pure strategy Nash equilibrium under a wide range of market conditions. The paper provides a characterization of equilibrium under weak capacity constraints. We apply the introduced results to analyze market power indices presented in our earlier work and in related reports. Applications to actual market analysis, as well as limitations of the introduced model are provided. (author)
Giant resonance of electrical multipole from droplet model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tauhata, L.
1984-01-01
The formalism of the electrical multipole resonance developed from the Droplet nuclear model is presented. It combines the approaches of Goldhaber-Teller (GT) and Steinwedel-Jensen (SJ) and it shows the relative contribution of Coulomb, superficial and neutron excess energies. It also discusses the calculation of half-width. The model evaluates correctly the resonance energies as a function of nuclear mass and allows, through the Mixture Index, the prediction of the complementary participation of modes SJ and GT in the giant nuclear resonance. Values of the mixture index, for each multipolarity, reproduce well the form factors obtained from experiments of charged particle inelastic scattering. The formalism presented for the calculation of the half-width gives a macroscopic description of the friction mechanism. The establishment of the macroscopic structure of the Dissipation Function is used as a reference in the comparison of microscopic calculations. (Author) [pt
A model for efficient management of electrical assets
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Alonso Guerreiro, A.
2008-01-01
At the same time that energy demand grows faster than the investments in electrical installations, the older capacity is reaching the end of its useful life. The need of running all those capacity without interruptions and an efficient maintenance of its assets, are the two current key points for power generation, transmission and distribution systems. This paper tries to show the reader a model of management which makes possible an effective management of assets with a strict control cost, and which includes those key points, centred at predictive techniques, involving all the departments of the organization and which goes further on considering the maintenance like a simple reparation or substitution of broken down units. Therefore, it becomes precise a model with three basic lines: supply guarantee, quality service and competitively, in order to allow the companies to reach the current demands which characterize the power supply. (Author) 5 refs
State-level electricity demand forecasting model. [For 1980, 1985, 1990
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Nguyen, H. D.
1978-01-01
This note briefly describes the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) state-level electricity demand (SLED) forecasting model developed for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Specifically, the note presents (1) the special features of the model, (2) the methodology used to forecast electricity demand, and (3) forecasts of electricity demand and average price by sector for 15 states for 1980, 1985, 1990.
Upton, J.R.; Murphy, M.; Shallo, L.; Groot Koerkamp, P.W.G.; Boer, de I.J.M.
2014-01-01
Our objective was to define and demonstrate a mechanistic model that enables dairy farmers to explore the impact of a technical or managerial innovation on electricity consumption, associated CO2 emissions, and electricity costs. We, therefore, (1) defined a model for electricity consumption on
Modeling Materials: Design for Planetary Entry, Electric Aircraft, and Beyond
Thompson, Alexander; Lawson, John W.
2014-01-01
NASA missions push the limits of what is possible. The development of high-performance materials must keep pace with the agency's demanding, cutting-edge applications. Researchers at NASA's Ames Research Center are performing multiscale computational modeling to accelerate development times and further the design of next-generation aerospace materials. Multiscale modeling combines several computationally intensive techniques ranging from the atomic level to the macroscale, passing output from one level as input to the next level. These methods are applicable to a wide variety of materials systems. For example: (a) Ultra-high-temperature ceramics for hypersonic aircraft-we utilized the full range of multiscale modeling to characterize thermal protection materials for faster, safer air- and spacecraft, (b) Planetary entry heat shields for space vehicles-we computed thermal and mechanical properties of ablative composites by combining several methods, from atomistic simulations to macroscale computations, (c) Advanced batteries for electric aircraft-we performed large-scale molecular dynamics simulations of advanced electrolytes for ultra-high-energy capacity batteries to enable long-distance electric aircraft service; and (d) Shape-memory alloys for high-efficiency aircraft-we used high-fidelity electronic structure calculations to determine phase diagrams in shape-memory transformations. Advances in high-performance computing have been critical to the development of multiscale materials modeling. We used nearly one million processor hours on NASA's Pleiades supercomputer to characterize electrolytes with a fidelity that would be otherwise impossible. For this and other projects, Pleiades enables us to push the physics and accuracy of our calculations to new levels.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tombs, F.
1983-01-01
The subject is discussed, with particular reference to the electricity industry in the United Kingdom, under the headings; importance and scope of the industry's work; future fuel supplies (estimated indigenous fossil fuels reserves); outlook for UK energy supplies; problems of future generating capacity and fuel mix (energy policy; construction programme; economics and pricing; contribution of nuclear power - thermal and fast reactors; problems of conversion of oil-burning to coal-burning plant). (U.K.)
Model dependence of the 2H electric dipole moment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Afnan, I. R.; Gibson, B. F.
2010-01-01
Background: Direct measurement of the electric dipole moment (EDM) of the neutron is in the future; measurement of a nuclear EDM may well come first. The deuteron is one nucleus for which exact model calculations are feasible. Purpose: We explore the model dependence of deuteron EDM calculations. Methods: Using a separable potential formulation of the Hamiltonian, we examine the sensitivity of the deuteron EDM to variation in the nucleon-nucleon interaction. We write the EDM as the sum of two terms, the first depending on the target wave function with plane-wave intermediate states, and the second depending on intermediate multiple scattering in the 3 P 1 channel, the latter being sensitive to the off-shell behavior of the 3 P 1 amplitude. Results: We compare the full calculation with the plane-wave approximation result, examine the tensor force contribution to the model results, and explore the effect of short-range repulsion found in realistic, contemporary potential models of the deuteron. Conclusions: Because one-pion exchange dominates the EDM calculation, separable potential model calculations will provide an adequate description of the 2 H EDM until such time as a measurement better than 10% is obtained.
Modeling water resources as a constraint in electricity capacity expansion models
Newmark, R. L.; Macknick, J.; Cohen, S.; Tidwell, V. C.; Woldeyesus, T.; Martinez, A.
2013-12-01
In the United States, the electric power sector is the largest withdrawer of freshwater in the nation. The primary demand for water from the electricity sector is for thermoelectric power plant cooling. Areas likely to see the largest near-term growth in population and energy usage, the Southwest and the Southeast, are also facing freshwater scarcity and have experienced water-related power reliability issues in the past decade. Lack of water may become a barrier for new conventionally-cooled power plants, and alternative cooling systems will impact technology cost and performance. Although water is integral to electricity generation, it has long been neglected as a constraint in future electricity system projections. Assessing the impact of water resource scarcity on energy infrastructure development is critical, both for conventional and renewable energy technologies. Efficiently utilizing all water types, including wastewater and brackish sources, or utilizing dry-cooling technologies, will be essential for transitioning to a low-carbon electricity system. This work provides the first demonstration of a national electric system capacity expansion model that incorporates water resources as a constraint on the current and future U.S. electricity system. The Regional Electricity Deployment System (ReEDS) model was enhanced to represent multiple cooling technology types and limited water resource availability in its optimization of electricity sector capacity expansion to 2050. The ReEDS model has high geographic and temporal resolution, making it a suitable model for incorporating water resources, which are inherently seasonal and watershed-specific. Cooling system technologies were assigned varying costs (capital, operations and maintenance), and performance parameters, reflecting inherent tradeoffs in water impacts and operating characteristics. Water rights supply curves were developed for each of the power balancing regions in ReEDS. Supply curves include costs
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Steve E Bellan
2010-04-01
Full Text Available Nearly all mathematical models of vector-borne diseases have assumed that vectors die at constant rates. However, recent empirical research suggests that mosquito mortality rates are frequently age dependent. This work develops a simple mathematical model to assess how relaxing the classical assumption of constant mortality affects the predicted effectiveness of anti-vectorial interventions. The effectiveness of mosquito control when mosquitoes die at age dependent rates was also compared across different extrinsic incubation periods. Compared to a more realistic age dependent model, constant mortality models overestimated the sensitivity of disease transmission to interventions that reduce mosquito survival. Interventions that reduce mosquito survival were also found to be slightly less effective when implemented in systems with shorter EIPs. Future transmission models that examine anti-vectorial interventions should incorporate realistic age dependent mortality rates.
Methodology for assessing electric vehicle charging infrastructure business models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Madina, Carlos; Zamora, Inmaculada; Zabala, Eduardo
2016-01-01
The analysis of economic implications of innovative business models in networked environments, as electro-mobility is, requires a global approach to ensure that all the involved actors obtain a benefit. Although electric vehicles (EVs) provide benefits for the society as a whole, there are a number of hurdles for their widespread adoption, mainly the high investment cost for the EV and for the infrastructure. Therefore, a sound business model must be built up for charging service operators, which allows them to recover their costs while, at the same time, offer EV users a charging price which makes electro-mobility comparable to internal combustion engine vehicles. For that purpose, three scenarios are defined, which present different EV charging alternatives, in terms of charging power and charging station ownership and accessibility. A case study is presented for each scenario and the required charging station usage to have a profitable business model is calculated. We demonstrate that private home charging is likely to be the preferred option for EV users who can charge at home, as it offers a lower total cost of ownership under certain conditions, even today. On the contrary, finding a profitable business case for fast charging requires more intensive infrastructure usage. - Highlights: • Ecosystem is a network of actors who collaborate to create a positive business case. • Electro-mobility (electricity-powered road vehicles and ICT) is a complex ecosystem. • Methodological analysis to ensure that all actors benefit from electro-mobility. • Economic analysis of charging infrastructure deployment linked to its usage. • Comparison of EV ownership cost vs. ICE for vehicle users.
Modelling and control of a light-duty hybrid electric truck
Park, Jong-Kyu
2006-01-01
This study is concentrated on modelling and developing the controller for the light-duty hybrid electric truck. The hybrid electric vehicle has advantages in fuel economy. However, there have been relatively few studies on commercial HEVs, whilst a considerable number of studies on the hybrid electric system have been conducted in the field of passenger cars. So the current status and the methodologies to develop the LD hybrid electric truck model have been studied through the ...
Model-predictive control based on Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model for electrical vehicles delayed model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Khooban, Mohammad-Hassan; Vafamand, Navid; Niknam, Taher
2017-01-01
Electric vehicles (EVs) play a significant role in different applications, such as commuter vehicles and short distance transport applications. This study presents a new structure of model-predictive control based on the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model, linear matrix inequalities, and a non......-quadratic Lyapunov function for the speed control of EVs including time-delay states and parameter uncertainty. Experimental data, using the Federal Test Procedure (FTP-75), is applied to test the performance and robustness of the suggested controller in the presence of time-varying parameters. Besides, a comparison...... is made between the results of the suggested robust strategy and those obtained from some of the most recent studies on the same topic, to assess the efficiency of the suggested controller. Finally, the experimental results based on a TMS320F28335 DSP are performed on a direct current motor. Simulation...
Modeling and prediction of Turkey's electricity consumption using Support Vector Regression
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kavaklioglu, Kadir
2011-01-01
Support Vector Regression (SVR) methodology is used to model and predict Turkey's electricity consumption. Among various SVR formalisms, ε-SVR method was used since the training pattern set was relatively small. Electricity consumption is modeled as a function of socio-economic indicators such as population, Gross National Product, imports and exports. In order to facilitate future predictions of electricity consumption, a separate SVR model was created for each of the input variables using their current and past values; and these models were combined to yield consumption prediction values. A grid search for the model parameters was performed to find the best ε-SVR model for each variable based on Root Mean Square Error. Electricity consumption of Turkey is predicted until 2026 using data from 1975 to 2006. The results show that electricity consumption can be modeled using Support Vector Regression and the models can be used to predict future electricity consumption. (author)
Modelling of electrical power systems for power flow analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cogo, Joao Roberto [Escola Federal de Engenharia de Itajuba, MG (Brazil)
1994-12-31
The industry systems in Brazil are responsible for a consumption of over 50% (fifty per cent) of the total electrical power generated: therefore, they are import loads in power flow studies, and their modeling should be as much the best. Usually, in power flow studies, the industry systems are modeled by taking the influence of the power (active and reactive) and of the current on the voltage into account. Since the inducting motors, within the industry systems, represent at least 50% (fifty per cent) of the power consumption, and a large part of them is oversize, it is proposed to represent the industry systems as a function of the characteristic of power on shaft versus voltage into account. Since the induction motors, within the industry systems, represent at least 50% (fifty per cent) of the power consumption, and a large part of them is oversized, it is proposed to represent the industry systems as a function of the characteristics of power on shaft versus voltage for the analysis of power systems, aiming a load flow study. Thereafter, a model of an equivalent motor which has a basis the typical performance curve of an induction motor is present. This model is obtained from empirical parameters, surveyed from a population of over 1000 motors. (author) 3 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs.
Modeling Residential Electricity Consumption Function in Malaysia: Time Series Approach
L. L. Ivy-Yap; H. A. Bekhet
2014-01-01
As the Malaysian residential electricity consumption continued to increase rapidly, effective energy policies, which address factors affecting residential electricity consumption, is urgently needed. This study attempts to investigate the relationship between residential electricity consumption (EC), real disposable income (Y), price of electricity (Pe) and population (Po) in Malaysia for 1978-2011 period. Unlike previous studies on Malaysia, the current study focuses on the residential secto...
Opitz, Florian; Treffinger, Peter
2016-04-01
Electric arc furnaces (EAF) are complex industrial plants whose actual behavior depends upon numerous factors. Due to its energy intensive operation, the EAF process has always been subject to optimization efforts. For these reasons, several models have been proposed in literature to analyze and predict different modes of operation. Most of these models focused on the processes inside the vessel itself. The present paper introduces a dynamic, physics-based model of a complete EAF plant which consists of the four subsystems vessel, electric system, electrode regulation, and off-gas system. Furthermore the solid phase is not treated to be homogenous but a simple spatial discretization is employed. Hence it is possible to simulate the energy input by electric arcs and fossil fuel burners depending on the state of the melting progress. The model is implemented in object-oriented, equation-based language Modelica. The simulation results are compared to literature data.
Econometric Modeling: An Application to the Demand for Electricity ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The empirical results show an inverse relationship between real appliance purchase price, the real per capita income and the demand for electricity. Also the rate of population growth rate as a proxy for electricity consumers appears to be insignificant. This reveals the clear fact that the demand for electricity is greater than ...
On the modeling of electrical boundary layer (electrode layer) and ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
In the first part of the paper, equations and methodology are discussed and in the second, we discuss results. 2. Methodology. In the atmospheric electricity, the earth's surface is one electrode and electrode layer or electrical boundary layer is a region near the surface of the earth in which profiles of atmospheric electrical.
About the free electron model in electric conduction of metals
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hoffmann, C.
1991-01-01
In the model proposed by Drude to describe, among others, the electric conduction in metals, it is supposed that electrons move freely in the material with a time interval between encounters T and a probability distribution g(t). The name, 'electron pause time', will be assigned to the time T with that probability distribution. The calculations made by Drude turned out to be erroneous. The error can be corrected observing that the random variable 'pause time' appearing in this intuitive idea is not the previously defined random variable T, 'electron pause time', but another random variable S, which will be called 'observed pause time' whose probability density is Csg(s), where C is a normalization constant. With this distribution, the characteristics of the distribution, q(u), of the wait time can be obtained. (Author) [es
Computer model for estimating electric utility environmental noise
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Teplitzky, A.M.; Hahn, K.J.
1991-01-01
This paper reports on a computer code for estimating environmental noise emissions from the operation and the construction of electric power plants that was developed based on algorithms. The computer code (Model) is used to predict octave band sound power levels for power plant operation and construction activities on the basis of the equipment operating characteristics and calculates off-site sound levels for each noise source and for an entire plant. Estimated noise levels are presented either as A-weighted sound level contours around the power plant or as octave band levels at user defined receptor locations. Calculated sound levels can be compared with user designated noise criteria, and the program can assist the user in analyzing alternative noise control strategies
Mathematical modelling of electricity market with renewable energy sources
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Marchenko, O.V.
2007-01-01
The paper addresses the electricity market with conventional energy sources on fossil fuel and non-conventional renewable energy sources (RESs) with stochastic operating conditions. A mathematical model of long-run (accounting for development of generation capacities) equilibrium in the market is constructed. The problem of determining optimal parameters providing the maximum social criterion of efficiency is also formulated. The calculations performed have shown that the adequate choice of price cap, environmental tax, subsidies to RESs and consumption tax make it possible to take into account external effects (environmental damage) and to create incentives for investors to construct conventional and renewable energy sources in an optimal (from the society view point) mix. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Honkapuro, S.; Lassila, J.; Viljainen, S.; Tahvanainen, K.; Partanen, J.
2004-01-01
Electricity distribution companies operate in the state of natural monopolies since building of parallel networks is not cost-effective. Monopoly companies do not have pressure from the open markets to keep their prices and costs at reasonable level. The regulation of these companies is needed to prevent the misuse of the monopoly position. Regulation is usually focused either on the profit of company or on the price of electricity. In this document, the usability of an econometric model in the regulation of electricity distribution companies is evaluated. Regulation method which determines allowed income for each company with generic computation model can be seen as an econometric model. As the special case of an econometric model, the method called Network Performance Assessment Model, NPAM (Naetnyttomodellen in Swedish), is analysed. NPAM is developed by Swedish Energy Agency (STEM) for the regulation of electricity distribution companies. Both theoretical analysis and calculations of an example network area are presented in this document to find the major directing effects of the model. The parameters of NPAM, which are used in the calculations of this research report, were dated on 30th of March 2004. These parameters were most recent available at the time when analysis was done. However, since NPAM is under development, the parameters have been constantly changing. Therefore slightly changes in the results can occur if calculations were made with latest parameters. However, main conclusions are same and do not depend on exact parameters. (orig.)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Honkapuro, S.; Lassila, J.; Viljainen, S.; Tahvanainen, K.; Partanen, J.
2004-01-01
Electricity distribution companies operate in the state of natural monopolies since building of parallel networks is not cost- effective. Monopoly companies do not have pressure from the open markets to keep their prices and costs at reasonable level. The regulation of these companies is needed to prevent the misuse of the monopoly position. Regulation is usually focused either on the profit of company or on the price of electricity. Regulation method which determines allowed income for each company with generic computation model can be seen as an econometric model. In this document, the usability of an econometric model in the regulation of electricity distribution companies is evaluated. As the special case of an econometric model, the method called Network Performance Assessment Model, NPAM (Naetnyttomodellen in Swedish), is analysed. NPAM is developed by Swedish Energy Agency (STEM) for the regulation of electricity distribution companies. Both theoretical analysis and calculations of an example network area are presented in this document to find the major directing effects of the model. The parameters of NPAM, which are used in the calculations of this research report, were dated on 30th of March 2004. These parameters were most recent ones available at the time when analysis was done. However, since NPAM have been under development, the parameters have been constantly changing. Therefore slight changes might occur in the numerical results of calculations if they were made with the latest set of parameters. However, main conclusions are same and do not depend on exact parameters
Tissot Dupont, H; Raoult, D
1993-05-01
Due to their worldwide distribution, from hottest to coldest climates, and due to their behaviour, ticks are capable of transmitting numerous human and animal bacterial viral or parasitous diseases. Depending on the disease, they play the role of biological vector or intermediate host. In France, six tick borne diseases are of epidemiologic importance. Q fever (not often tick-borne), Mediterranean Spotted Fever, Lyme disease, Turalemia (human and animal), Babesiosis and Tick-borne Viral Encephalitis.
Modeling and prediction of Turkey's electricity consumption using Artificial Neural Networks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kavaklioglu, Kadir; Ozturk, Harun Kemal; Canyurt, Olcay Ersel; Ceylan, Halim
2009-01-01
Artificial Neural Networks are proposed to model and predict electricity consumption of Turkey. Multi layer perceptron with backpropagation training algorithm is used as the neural network topology. Tangent-sigmoid and pure-linear transfer functions are selected in the hidden and output layer processing elements, respectively. These input-output network models are a result of relationships that exist among electricity consumption and several other socioeconomic variables. Electricity consumption is modeled as a function of economic indicators such as population, gross national product, imports and exports. It is also modeled using export-import ratio and time input only. Performance comparison among different models is made based on absolute and percentage mean square error. Electricity consumption of Turkey is predicted until 2027 using data from 1975 to 2006 along with other economic indicators. The results show that electricity consumption can be modeled using Artificial Neural Networks, and the models can be used to predict future electricity consumption. (author)
Modeling Electric Discharges with Entropy Production Rate Principles
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Thomas Christen
2009-12-01
Full Text Available Under which circumstances are variational principles based on entropy production rate useful tools for modeling steady states of electric (gas discharge systems far from equilibrium? It is first shown how various different approaches, as Steenbeck’s minimum voltage and Prigogine’s minimum entropy production rate principles are related to the maximum entropy production rate principle (MEPP. Secondly, three typical examples are discussed, which provide a certain insight in the structure of the models that are candidates for MEPP application. It is then thirdly argued that MEPP, although not being an exact physical law, may provide reasonable model parameter estimates, provided the constraints contain the relevant (nonlinear physical effects and the parameters to be determined are related to disregarded weak constraints that affect mainly global entropy production. Finally, it is additionally conjectured that a further reason for the success of MEPP in certain far from equilibrium systems might be based on a hidden linearity of the underlying kinetic equation(s.
Modelling electric trains energy consumption using Neural Networks
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Martinez Fernandez, P.; Garcia Roman, C.; Insa Franco, R.
2016-07-01
Nowadays there is an evident concern regarding the efficiency and sustainability of the transport sector due to both the threat of climate change and the current financial crisis. This concern explains the growth of railways over the last years as they present an inherent efficiency compared to other transport means. However, in order to further expand their role, it is necessary to optimise their energy consumption so as to increase their competitiveness. Improving railways energy efficiency requires both reliable data and modelling tools that will allow the study of different variables and alternatives. With this need in mind, this paper presents the development of consumption models based on neural networks that calculate the energy consumption of electric trains. These networks have been trained based on an extensive set of consumption data measured in line 1 of the Valencia Metro Network. Once trained, the neural networks provide a reliable estimation of the vehicles consumption along a specific route when fed with input data such as train speed, acceleration or track longitudinal slope. These networks represent a useful modelling tool that may allow a deeper study of railway lines in terms of energy expenditure with the objective of reducing the costs and environmental impact associated to railways. (Author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lena Ahmadi
2015-05-01
Full Text Available One of the main challenges for widespread penetration of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs is their impact on the electricity grid. The energy sector must anticipate and prepare for this extra demand and implement long-term planning for electricity production. In this paper, the additional electricity demand on the Ontario electricity grid from charging PHEVs is incorporated into an electricity production planning model. A case study pertaining to Ontario energy planning is considered to optimize the value of the cost of the electricity over sixteen years (2014–2030. The objective function consists of the fuel costs, fixed and variable operating and maintenance costs, capital costs for new power plants, and the retrofit costs of existing power plants. Five different case studies are performed with different PHEVs penetration rates, types of new power plants, and CO2 emission constraints. Among all the cases studied, the one requiring the most new capacity, (~8748 MW, is assuming the base case with 6% reduction in CO2 in year 2018 and high PHEV penetration. The next highest one is the base case, plus considering doubled NG prices, PHEV medium penetration rate and no CO2 emissions reduction target with an increase of 34.78% in the total installed capacity in 2030. Furthermore, optimization results indicate that by not utilizing coal power stations the CO2 emissions are the lowest: ~500 tonnes compared to ~900 tonnes when coal is permitted.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Budde Christensen, Thomas; Wells, Peter; Cipcigan, Liana
2012-01-01
This paper explores the geographical and policy context for an emergent business model from Better Place to deliver battery electric car mobility in Denmark. It argues that the combination of radically different technologies and a highly complex multi-agency operating environment theoretically provide the conditions and requirements for such an emergent business model. While focused on battery electric cars, renewable energy generation and smart grids, the paper has wider applicability to an understanding of the interplay between place, innovation and sustainability which suggests that diverse solutions are likely to be the characteristic solution rather than ubiquity and standardization. The paper argues, however, that the innovative business model, the deployment of electric vehicles, and the use of renewable energy systems, in this case largely based on wind power, while mutually supportive and contributing to wider policy aims with respect to the reduction of carbon emissions, may still fail in the face of entrenched practices. At the theoretical level it is concluded that theorization of business models needs a broader perspective beyond the typical ‘value creation, value capture’ rubric to better understand the wider role such models have in meeting societal goals, and to understand the structural impediments to organizational and technical innovation. - Highlights: ► We explore the context for an innovative emergent business model to deliver battery electric car mobility in Denmark. ► We explore the interplay between battery electric cars, renewable energy generation and smart grids. ► We discuss the integration of electric cars in energy systems based on renewable energy sources. ► We discuss the likely success of the Better Place business model.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Franjo Šumanovac
2007-12-01
Full Text Available The block model in a homogenous environment can generally serve for presentation of some geological models: changes of facies, changes of rock compactness-fragmentation, underground cavities, bauxite deposits, etc. Therefore, on the block model of increased resistivities in a homogenous environment of low resistivity, the potentials of the electrical tomography method were tested for the purpose of their detection. Regarding potentials of block detection, resolution methods depend on: depth of block location, ratio between block resistivity and the environment in which it is located as well as applied survey geometry, i.e. electrode array. Thus the analyses carried out for the most frequently used electrode arrays in the investigations are the following: the Wenner, Wenner-Schlumberger, dipole-dipole and pole-pole arrays. For each array, maximum depths at which a block can be detected relative to the ratio between block resistivity and parent rock environment were analyzed. The results are shown in the two-dimensional graphs, where the ratio between the block resistivity and the environment is shown on the X-axis, and the resolution depth on the Y-axis, after which the curves defining the resolution limits were drawn. These graphs have a practical use, since they enable a fast, simple determination of potentials of the method application on a specific geological model.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang, Yixiang; Wang, Zhaohua; Zhou, Guanghui
2013-01-01
China is one of the major energy-consuming countries, and is under great pressure to promote energy saving and reduce domestic energy consumption. Employees constitute an important target group for energy saving. However, only a few research efforts have been paid to study what drives employee energy saving behavior in organizations. To fill this gap, drawing on norm activation model (NAM), we built a research model to study antecedents of employee electricity saving behavior in organizations. The model was empirically tested using survey data collected from office workers in Beijing, China. Results show that personal norm positively influences employee electricity saving behavior. Organizational electricity saving climate negatively moderates the effect of personal norm on electricity saving behavior. Awareness of consequences, ascription of responsibility, and organizational electricity saving climate positively influence personal norm. Furthermore, awareness of consequences positively influences ascription of responsibility. This paper contributes to the energy saving behavior literature by building a theoretical model of employee electricity saving behavior which is understudied in the current literature. Based on the empirical results, implications on how to promote employee electricity saving are discussed. - Highlights: • We studied employee electricity saving behavior based on norm activation model. • The model was tested using survey data collected from office workers in China. • Personal norm positively influences employee′s electricity saving behavior. • Electricity saving climate negatively moderates personal norm′s effect. • This research enhances our understanding of employee electricity saving behavior
Electricity demand loads modeling using AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARMA) models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Pappas, S.S. [Department of Information and Communication Systems Engineering, University of the Aegean, Karlovassi, 83 200 Samos (Greece); Ekonomou, L.; Chatzarakis, G.E. [Department of Electrical Engineering Educators, ASPETE - School of Pedagogical and Technological Education, N. Heraklion, 141 21 Athens (Greece); Karamousantas, D.C. [Technological Educational Institute of Kalamata, Antikalamos, 24100 Kalamata (Greece); Katsikas, S.K. [Department of Technology Education and Digital Systems, University of Piraeus, 150 Androutsou Srt., 18 532 Piraeus (Greece); Liatsis, P. [Division of Electrical Electronic and Information Engineering, School of Engineering and Mathematical Sciences, Information and Biomedical Engineering Centre, City University, Northampton Square, London EC1V 0HB (United Kingdom)
2008-09-15
This study addresses the problem of modeling the electricity demand loads in Greece. The provided actual load data is deseasonilized and an AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARMA) model is fitted on the data off-line, using the Akaike Corrected Information Criterion (AICC). The developed model fits the data in a successful manner. Difficulties occur when the provided data includes noise or errors and also when an on-line/adaptive modeling is required. In both cases and under the assumption that the provided data can be represented by an ARMA model, simultaneous order and parameter estimation of ARMA models under the presence of noise are performed. The produced results indicate that the proposed method, which is based on the multi-model partitioning theory, tackles successfully the studied problem. For validation purposes the produced results are compared with three other established order selection criteria, namely AICC, Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) and Schwarz's Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The developed model could be useful in the studies that concern electricity consumption and electricity prices forecasts. (author)
Modelling of Hot Water Storage Tank for Electric Grid Integration and Demand Response Control
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sinha, Rakesh; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Pillai, Jayakrishnan Radhakrishna
2017-01-01
District heating (DH), based on electric boilers, when integrated into electric network has potential of flexible load with direct/indirect storage to increase the dynamic stability of the grid in terms of power production and consumption with wind and solar. The two different models of electric...
Estimating a two-factor model for the forward curve of electricity
Kholopova, M.
2006-01-01
Energy commodity markets have been developing very rapidly in the past few years. Many new products on electricity have appeared and there is a need for a consistent and simple model to price electricity derivatives based on electricity prices and to manage financial risks. In this thesis we
Korchin, AY; Scholten, O
2003-01-01
Corrections to the Born approximation in photoinduced strangeness production off a proton are calculated in a semirealistic microscopic model. The vertex corrections and internal contributions to the amplitude of the gammap-->K+Lambda reaction are included on the one-loop level. Different
Modelling of an advanced charging system for electric vehicles
Hassan Jaafar, Abdul; Rahman, Ataur; Mohiuddin, A. K. M.; Rashid, Mahbubur
2017-03-01
Climate Change is recognized as one of the greatest environmental problem facing the World today and it has long been appreciated by governments that reducing the impact of the internal combustion (IC) engine powered motor vehicle has an important part to play in addressing this threat. In Malaysia, IC engine powered motor vehicle accounts almost 90% of the national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The need to reduce the emission is paramount, as Malaysia has pledged to reduce 40% of CO2 intensity by 2020 from 2005 level by 25% of improvement in average fuel consumption. The introduction of electric vehicles (EVs) is one of the initiatives. However in terms of percentage, the electric vehicles have not been commonly used by people nowadays and one of the reasons is lack in charging infrastructure especially when cars are on the road. The aim of this study is to simulate and model an advanced charging system for the charging infrastructure of EVs/HEVs all over the nation with slow charging mode with charging current 25 A, medium charging mode with charging current 50 A and fast charging mode with charging current 100 A. The slow charging mode is proposed for residence, medium charging mode for office parking lots, and fast charging mode is called fast charging track for charging station on road. With three modes charger topology, consumers could choose a suitable mode for their car based on their need. The simulation and experiment of advanced charging system has been conducted on a scale down battery pack of nominal voltage of 3.75 V and capacity of 1020 mAh. Result shows that the battery could be charging less than 1 hour with fast charging mode. However, due to limitation of Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) power grid, the maximum 50 A current is considered to be the optimized passive mode for the EV’s battery charging system. The developed advanced charger prototype performance has been compared with the simulation result and conventional charger performance, the
Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of a Switched Reluctance Motor in a Series Hybrid Electric Vehicle
Siavash Sadeghi; Mojtaba Mirsalim; Arash Hassanpour Isfahani
2010-01-01
Dynamic behavior analysis of electric motors is required in order to accuratelyevaluate the performance, energy consumption and pollution level of hybrid electricvehicles. Simulation tools for hybrid electric vehicles are divided into steady state anddynamic models. Tools with steady-state models are useful for system-level analysiswhereas tools that utilize dynamic models give in-depth information about the behavior ofsublevel components. For the accurate prediction of hybrid electric vehicl...
The AC Stark Effect, Time-Dependent Born-Oppenheimer Approximation, and Franck-Condon Factors
Hagedorn, G A; Jilcott, S W
2005-01-01
We study the quantum mechanics of a simple molecular system that is subject to a laser pulse. We model the laser pulse by a classical oscillatory electric field, and we employ the Born--Oppenheimer approximation for the molecule. We compute transition amplitudes to leading order in the laser strength. These amplitudes contain Franck--Condon factors that we compute explicitly to leading order in the Born--Oppenheimer parameter. We also correct an erroneous calculation in the mathematical literature on the AC Stark effect for molecular systems.
Finite element modeling of electrically rectified piezoelectric energy harvesters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wu, P H; Shu, Y C
2015-01-01
Finite element models are developed for designing electrically rectified piezoelectric energy harvesters. They account for the consideration of common interface circuits such as the standard and parallel-/series-SSHI (synchronized switch harvesting on inductor) circuits, as well as complicated structural configurations such as arrays of piezoelectric oscillators. The idea is to replace the energy harvesting circuit by the proposed equivalent load impedance together with the capacitance of negative value. As a result, the proposed framework is capable of being implemented into conventional finite element solvers for direct system-level design without resorting to circuit simulators. The validation based on COMSOL simulations carried out for various interface circuits by the comparison with the standard modal analysis model. The framework is then applied to the investigation on how harvested power is reduced due to fabrication deviations in geometric and material properties of oscillators in an array system. Remarkably, it is found that for a standard array system with strong electromechanical coupling, the drop in peak power turns out to be insignificant if the optimal load is carefully chosen. The second application is to design broadband energy harvesting by developing array systems with suitable interface circuits. The result shows that significant broadband is observed for the parallel (series) connection of oscillators endowed with the parallel-SSHI (series-SSHI) circuit technique. (paper)
Modelling of thermoacoustic phenomena in an electrically heated Rijke tube
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Beke, Tamas, E-mail: tamasbe@gmail.co [Our Lady Catholic Institute, Kalocsa (Hungary)
2010-11-15
Thermoacoustic instability plays an important role in various technical applications, for instance in jet or rocket motors, thermoacoustic engines, pulse combustors and industrial burners. The main objective of this paper is to present the theory of thermoacoustic oscillations, and for this purpose a Rijke-type thermal device was built. The Rijke tube is a simple device open at both ends with a mean airflow and a concentrated heat source (a heated wire grid). It serves as a convenient prototypical example to understand thermoacoustic effects since it is a simplified thermoacoustic resonator; once excited, under certain conditions, it is capable of creating a sustained sound when thermal energy is added. In this paper we present a project that includes physical measuring, examination and modelling. We have employed electrically heated Rijke tubes in our thermoacoustic school project work, and present a numerical algorithm to predict the transition to instability; in this model the effects of the main system parameters are demonstrated. The aim of our project is to help our students enhance their knowledge about thermoacoustics and develop their applied information technology skills.
Finite element modeling of electrically rectified piezoelectric energy harvesters
Wu, P. H.; Shu, Y. C.
2015-09-01
Finite element models are developed for designing electrically rectified piezoelectric energy harvesters. They account for the consideration of common interface circuits such as the standard and parallel-/series-SSHI (synchronized switch harvesting on inductor) circuits, as well as complicated structural configurations such as arrays of piezoelectric oscillators. The idea is to replace the energy harvesting circuit by the proposed equivalent load impedance together with the capacitance of negative value. As a result, the proposed framework is capable of being implemented into conventional finite element solvers for direct system-level design without resorting to circuit simulators. The validation based on COMSOL simulations carried out for various interface circuits by the comparison with the standard modal analysis model. The framework is then applied to the investigation on how harvested power is reduced due to fabrication deviations in geometric and material properties of oscillators in an array system. Remarkably, it is found that for a standard array system with strong electromechanical coupling, the drop in peak power turns out to be insignificant if the optimal load is carefully chosen. The second application is to design broadband energy harvesting by developing array systems with suitable interface circuits. The result shows that significant broadband is observed for the parallel (series) connection of oscillators endowed with the parallel-SSHI (series-SSHI) circuit technique.
Modelling of thermoacoustic phenomena in an electrically heated Rijke tube
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Beke, Tamas
2010-01-01
Thermoacoustic instability plays an important role in various technical applications, for instance in jet or rocket motors, thermoacoustic engines, pulse combustors and industrial burners. The main objective of this paper is to present the theory of thermoacoustic oscillations, and for this purpose a Rijke-type thermal device was built. The Rijke tube is a simple device open at both ends with a mean airflow and a concentrated heat source (a heated wire grid). It serves as a convenient prototypical example to understand thermoacoustic effects since it is a simplified thermoacoustic resonator; once excited, under certain conditions, it is capable of creating a sustained sound when thermal energy is added. In this paper we present a project that includes physical measuring, examination and modelling. We have employed electrically heated Rijke tubes in our thermoacoustic school project work, and present a numerical algorithm to predict the transition to instability; in this model the effects of the main system parameters are demonstrated. The aim of our project is to help our students enhance their knowledge about thermoacoustics and develop their applied information technology skills.
Modeling long-term dynamics of electricity markets
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Olsina, Fernando; Garces, Francisco; Haubrich, H.-J.
2006-01-01
In the last decade, many countries have restructured their electricity industries by introducing competition in their power generation sectors. Although some restructuring has been regarded as successful, the short experience accumulated with liberalized power markets does not allow making any founded assertion about their long-term behavior. Long-term prices and long-term supply reliability are now center of interest. This concerns firms considering investments in generation capacity and regulatory authorities interested in assuring the long-term supply adequacy and the stability of power markets. In order to gain significant insight into the long-term behavior of liberalized power markets, in this paper, a simulation model based on system dynamics is proposed and the underlying mathematical formulations extensively discussed. Unlike classical market models based on the assumption that market outcomes replicate the results of a centrally made optimization, the approach presented here focuses on replicating the system structure of power markets and the logic of relationships among system components in order to derive its dynamical response. The simulations suggest that there might be serious problems to adjust early enough the generation capacity necessary to maintain stable reserve margins, and consequently, stable long-term price levels. Because of feedback loops embedded in the structure of power markets and the existence of some time lags, the long-term market development might exhibit a quite volatile behavior. By varying some exogenous inputs, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to assess the influence of these factors on the long-run market dynamics
The Mathematical Modelling of Heat Transfer in Electrical Cables
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bugajev Andrej
2014-05-01
Full Text Available This paper describes a mathematical modelling approach for heat transfer calculations in underground high voltage and middle voltage electrical power cables. First of the all typical layout of the cable in the sand or soil is described. Then numerical algorithms are targeted to the two-dimensional mathematical models of transient heat transfer. Finite Volume Method is suggested for calculations. Different strategies of nonorthogonality error elimination are considered. Acute triangles meshes were applied in two-dimensional domain to eliminate this error. Adaptive mesh is also tried. For calculations OpenFOAM open source software which uses Finite Volume Method is applied. To generate acute triangles meshes aCute library is used. The efficiency of the proposed approach is analyzed. The results show that the second order of convergence or close to that is achieved (in terms of sizes of finite volumes. Also it is shown that standard strategy, used by OpenFOAM is less efficient than the proposed approach. Finally it is concluded that for solving real problem a spatial adaptive mesh is essential and adaptive time steps also may be needed.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Huang, Yun-Hsun; Wu, Jung-Hua; Hsu, Yu-Ju
2016-01-01
Traditional electricity supply planning models regard the electricity demand as a deterministic parameter and require the total power output to satisfy the aggregate electricity demand. But in today's world, the electric system planners are facing tremendously complex environments full of uncertainties, where electricity demand is a key source of uncertainty. In addition, electricity demand patterns are considerably different for different regions. This paper developed a multi-region optimization model based on two-stage stochastic programming framework to incorporate the demand uncertainty. Furthermore, the decision tree method and Monte Carlo simulation approach are integrated into the model to simplify electricity demands in the form of nodes and determine the values and probabilities. The proposed model was successfully applied to a real case study (i.e. Taiwan's electricity sector) to show its applicability. Detail simulation results were presented and compared with those generated by a deterministic model. Finally, the long-term electricity development roadmap at a regional level could be provided on the basis of our simulation results. - Highlights: • A multi-region, two-stage stochastic programming model has been developed. • The decision tree and Monte Carlo simulation are integrated into the framework. • Taiwan's electricity sector is used to illustrate the applicability of the model. • The results under deterministic and stochastic cases are shown for comparison. • Optimal portfolios of regional generation technologies can be identified.
Optimal electricity price calculation model for retailers in a deregulated market
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yusta, J.M.; Dominguez-Navarro, J.A. [Zaragoza Univ., Dept. of Electrical Engineering, Zaragoza (Spain); Ramirez-Rosado, I.J. [La Rioja Univ., Dept. of Electrical Engineering, Logrono (Spain); Perez-Vidal, J.M. [McKinnon and Clarke, Energy Services Div., Zaragoza (Spain)
2005-07-01
The electricity retailing, a new business in deregulated electric power systems, needs the development of efficient tools to optimize its operation. This paper defines a technical-economic model of an electric energy service provider in the environment of the deregulated electricity market in Spain. This model results in an optimization problem, for calculating the optimal electric power and energy selling prices that maximize the economic profits obtained by the provider. This problem is applied to different cases, where the impact on the profits of several factors, such as the price strategy, the discount on tariffs and the elasticity of customer demand functions, is studied. (Author)
Optimal electricity price calculation model for retailers in a deregulated market
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yusta, J.M.; Dominguez-Navarro, J.A.; Ramirez-Rosado, I.J.; Perez-Vidal, J.M.
2005-01-01
The electricity retailing, a new business in deregulated electric power systems, needs the development of efficient tools to optimize its operation. This paper defines a technical-economic model of an electric energy service provider in the environment of the deregulated electricity market in Spain. This model results in an optimization problem, for calculating the optimal electric power and energy selling prices that maximize the economic profits obtained by the provider. This problem is applied to different cases, where the impact on the profits of several factors, such as the price strategy, the discount on tariffs and the elasticity of customer demand functions, is studied. (Author)
Implementation of Electrical Simulation Model for IEC Standard Type-3A Generator
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Subramanian, Chandrasekaran; Casadei, Domenico; Tani, Angelo
2013-01-01
This paper describes the implementation of electrical simulation model for IEC 61400-27-1 standard Type-3A generator. A general overview of the different wind electric generators(WEG) types are given and the main focused on Type-3A WEG standard models, namely a model for a variable speed wind tur...
Development of the computer model by using LINGO for Electric System Expansion Planning
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lee, Man Ki; Kim, Seung Su [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)
1994-05-01
The main purpose of this study is to develop the electric system expansion planning model based on linear programming method and to describe how to use the model. The algorithm of linear programming is provided by LINGO. The decision variables are electric generation capacity per period and electricity generated by fuel types per year. Integer program is implemented in the model in order to consider indivisibility of electric capacities. The model also allows the constraint of CO{sub 2} to be considered in the planning. (Author) 4 refs.,.
Modeling climate feedbacks to electricity demand: The case of China
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Asadoorian, Malcolm O.; Eckaus, Richard S.; Schlosser, C. Adam
2008-01-01
This paper is an empirical investigation of the effects of climate on the use of electricity by consumers and producers in urban and rural areas within China. It takes advantage of an unusual combination of temporal and regional data sets in order to estimate temperature, as well as price and income elasticities of electricity demand. The estimated positive temperature/electric power feedback implies a continually increasing use of energy to produce electric power which, in China, is primarily based on coal. In the absence of countervailing measures, this will contribute to increased emissions, increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, and increases in greenhouse warming
Salameh , Farah; Picot , Antoine; Chabert , Marie; Maussion , Pascal
2017-01-01
International audience; This paper describes an original statistical approach for the lifespan modeling of electric machine insulation materials. The presented models aim to study the effect of three main stress factors (voltage, frequency and temperature) and their interactions on the insulation lifespan. The proposed methodology is applied to two different insulation materials tested in partial discharge regime. Accelerated ageing tests are organized according to experimental optimization m...
An integrated model for long-term power generation planning toward future smart electricity systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang, Qi; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo; Ishihara, Keiichi N.
2013-01-01
Highlights: • An integrated model for planning future smart electricity systems was developed. • The model consists of an optimization model and an hour-by-hour simulation model. • The model was applied to Tokyo area, Japan in light of the Fukushima Accident. • Paths to best generation mixes of smart electricity systems were obtained. • Detailed hourly operation patterns in smart electricity systems were obtained. - Abstract: In the present study, an integrated planning model was developed to find economically/environmentally optimized paths toward future smart electricity systems with high level penetration of intermittent renewable energy and new controllable electric devices at the supply and demand sides respectively for regional scale. The integrated model is used to (i) plan the best power generation and capacity mixes to meet future electricity demand subject to various constraints using an optimization model; (ii) obtain detailed operation patterns of power plants and new controllable electric devices using an hour-by-hour simulation model based on the obtained optimized power generation mix. As a case study, the model was applied to power generation planning in the Tokyo area, Japan, out to 2030 in light of the Fukushima Accident. The paths toward best generation mixes of smart electricity systems in 2030 based on fossil fuel, hydro power, nuclear and renewable energy were obtained and the feasibility of the integrated model was proven
EVT in electricity price modeling : extreme value theory not only on the extreme events
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Marossy, Z.
2007-01-01
The extreme value theory (EVT) is commonly used in electricity and financial risk modeling. In this study, EVT was used to model the distribution of electricity prices. The model was built on the price formation in electricity auction markets. This paper reviewed the 3 main modeling approaches used to describe the distribution of electricity prices. The first approach is based on a stochastic model of the electricity price time series and uses this stochastic model to generate the given distribution. The second approach involves electricity supply and demand factors that determine the price distribution. The third approach involves agent-based models which use simulation techniques to write down the price distribution. A fourth modeling approach was then proposed to describe the distribution of electricity prices. The new approach determines the distribution of electricity prices directly without knowing anything about the data generating process or market driving forces. Empirical data confirmed that the distribution of electricity prices have a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. 8 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs
Photochromic systems as models for opto-electrical switches
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Lutsyk, P.; Sworakowski, J.; Janus, K.; Nešpůrek, Stanislav; Kochalska, Anna
2010-01-01
Roč. 522, - (2010), s. 511-528 ISSN 1542-1406 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KAN401770651 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z40500505 Keywords : charge carrier transport * molecular material * opto-electrical switch Subject RIV: JA - Electronics ; Optoelectronics, Electrical Engineering Impact factor: 0.543, year: 2010
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Eguchi, Yuzuru; Sugimoto, Soichiro; Hattori, Yasuo; Hirakuchi, Hiromaru
2015-01-01
Explanation is given about a rational method to evaluate tornado-borne missile speed, flight distance and flight height to be used for safety design of a nuclear power plant. In the method, the authors employed Fujita's DBT-77 model as a tornado wind model to take the near-ground tornado wind profile into account. A liftoff model of an object on the ground was developed by conservatively modeling the lift force due to ground effect. The wind field model and the liftoff model have been compiled together with a conventional flight model into a computer code, named TONBOS. In this study, especially, the code is verified for one- and two-dimensional free-fall problems as well as a case of 1957 Dallas tornado wind field model, whose solutions are theoretically or numerically known. Finally, the code is validated by typical car behaviors characterized by tornado wind speeds of the enhanced Fujita scale, as well as by an actual event where a truck was blown away by a tornado which struck a part of the town of Saroma, Hokkaido in November, 2006. (author)
The Applicability of Fluid Model to Electrical Breakdown and Glow Discharge Modeling in Argon
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stankov, M. N.; Marković, V. Lj.; Stamenković, S. N.; Jovanović, A. P.; Petković, M. D.
2015-01-01
The simple fluid model, an extended fluid model, and the fluid model with nonlocal ionization are applied for the calculations of static breakdown voltages, Paschen curves and current-voltage characteristics. The best agreement with the experimental data for the Paschen curve modeling is achieved by using the model with variable secondary electron yield. The modeling of current-voltage characteristics is performed for different inter-electrode distances and the results are compared with the experimental data. The fluid model with nonlocal ionization shows an excellent agreement for all inter-electrode distances, while the extended fluid model with variable electron transport coefficients agrees well with measurements at short inter-electrode distances when ionization by fast electrons can be neglected. (physics of gases, plasmas, and electric discharges)
Balta, Nuri
2015-01-01
Visualizing physical concepts through models is an essential method in many sciences. While students are mostly proficient in handling mathematical aspects of problems, they frequently lack the ability to visualize and interpret abstract physical concepts in a meaningful way. In this paper, initially the electric circuits and related concepts were…
Engineering approach to model and compute electric power markets settlements
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kumar, J.; Petrov, V.
2006-01-01
Back-office accounting settlement activities are an important part of market operations in Independent System Operator (ISO) organizations. A potential way to measure ISO market design correctness is to analyze how well market price signals create incentives or penalties for creating an efficient market to achieve market design goals. Market settlement rules are an important tool for implementing price signals which are fed back to participants via the settlement activities of the ISO. ISO's are currently faced with the challenge of high volumes of data resulting from the increasing size of markets and ever-changing market designs, as well as the growing complexity of wholesale energy settlement business rules. This paper analyzed the problem and presented a practical engineering solution using an approach based on mathematical formulation and modeling of large scale calculations. The paper also presented critical comments on various differences in settlement design approaches to electrical power market design, as well as further areas of development. The paper provided a brief introduction to the wholesale energy market settlement systems and discussed problem formulation. An actual settlement implementation framework and discussion of the results and conclusions were also presented. It was concluded that a proper engineering approach to this domain can yield satisfying results by formalizing wholesale energy settlements. Significant improvements were observed in the initial preparation phase, scoping and effort estimation, implementation and testing. 5 refs., 2 figs
Modeling Instruction in AP Physics C: Mechanics and Electricity and Magnetism
Belcher, Nathan Tillman
This action research study used data from multiple assessments in Mechanics and Electricity and Magnetism to determine the viability of Modeling Instruction as a pedagogy for students in AP Physics C: Mechanics and Electricity and Magnetism. Modeling Instruction is a guided-inquiry approach to teaching science in which students progress through the Modeling Cycle to develop a fully-constructed model for a scientific concept. AP Physics C: Mechanics and Electricity and Magnetism are calculus-based physics courses, approximately equivalent to first-year calculus-based physics courses at the collegiate level. Using a one-group pretest-posttest design, students were assessed in Mechanics using the Force Concept Inventory, Mechanics Baseline Test, and 2015 AP Physics C: Mechanics Practice Exam. With the same design, students were assessed in Electricity and Magnetism on the Brief Electricity and Magnetism Assessment, Electricity and Magnetism Conceptual Assessment, and 2015 AP Physics C: Electricity and Magnetism Practice Exam. In a one-shot case study design, student scores were collected from the 2017 AP Physics C: Mechanics and Electricity and Magnetism Exams. Students performed moderately well on the assessments in Mechanics and Electricity and Magnetism, demonstrating that Modeling Instruction is a viable pedagogy in AP Physics C: Electricity and Magnetism.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Scaramucci, Jose A.; Perin, Clovis; Pulino, Petronio; Bordoni, Orlando F.J.G.; Cunha, Marcelo P. da; Cortez, Luis A.B.
2006-01-01
In the midst of the institutional reforms of the Brazilian electric sectors initiated in the 1990s, a serious electricity shortage crisis developed in 2001. As an alternative to blackout, the government instituted an emergency plan aimed at reducing electricity consumption. From June 2001 to February 2002, Brazilians were compelled to curtail electricity use by 20%. Since the late 1990s, but especially after the electricity crisis, energy policy in Brazil has been directed towards increasing thermoelectricity supply and promoting further gains in energy conservation. Two main issues are addressed here. Firstly, we estimate the economic impacts of constraining the supply of electric energy in Brazil. Secondly, we investigate the possible penetration of electricity generated from sugarcane bagasse. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used. The traditional sector of electricity and the remainder of the economy are characterized by a stylized top-down representation as nested CES (constant elasticity of substitution) production functions. The electricity production from sugarcane bagasse is described through a bottom-up activity analysis, with a detailed representation of the required inputs based on engineering studies. The model constructed is used to study the effects of the electricity shortage in the preexisting sector through prices, production and income changes. It is shown that installing capacity to generate electricity surpluses by the sugarcane agroindustrial system could ease the economic impacts of an electric energy shortage crisis on the gross domestic product (GDP)
Stochastic factor model for electricity spot price-the case of the Nordic market
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vehvilaeinen, Iivo; Pyykkoenen, Tuomas
2005-01-01
This paper presents a stochastic factor based approach to mid-term modeling of spot prices in deregulated electricity markets. The fundamentals affecting the spot price are modeled independently and a market equilibrium model combines them to form spot price. Main advantage of the model is the transparency of the generated prices because each underlying factor and the dynamics between factors can be modeled and studied in detail. Paper shows realistic numerical examples on the forerunner Scandinavian electricity market. The model is used to price an exotic electricity derivative
Stochastic factor model for electricity spot price - the case of the Nordic market
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vehvilainen, I.; Pyykkoenen, T.
2005-01-01
This paper presents a stochastic factor based approach to mid-term modeling of spot prices in deregulated electricity markets. The fundamentals affecting the spot price are modeled independently and a market equilibrium model combines them to form spot price. Main advantage of the model is the transparency of the generated prices because each underlying factor and the dynamics between factors can be modeled and studied in detail. Paper shows realistic numerical examples on the forerunner Scandinavian electricity market. The model is used to price an exotic electricity derivative. (author)
Numerical modeling for an electric-field hyperthermia applicator
Wu, Te-Kao; Chou, C. K.; Chan, K. W.; Mcdougall, J.
1993-01-01
Hyperthermia, in conjunction with radiation and chemotherapy for treatment of cancers, is an area of current concern. Experiments have shown that hyperthermia can increase the potency of many chemotherapy drugs and the effectiveness of radiation for treating cancer. A combination of whole body or regional hyperthermia with chemotherapy or radiation should improve treatment results. Conventional methods for inducing whole body hyperthermia, such as exposing a patient in a radiant cabinet or under a hot water blanket, conduct heat very slowly from the skin to the body core. Thus a more efficient system, such as the three-plate electric-field hyperthermia applicator (EHA), is developed. This three-plate EHA has one top plate over and two lower plates beneath the patient. It is driven at 27.12 MHz with 500 Watts through a matching circuit. Using this applicator, a 50 kg pig was successfully heated to 42 C within 45 minutes. However, phantom and animal studies have indicated non-uniform heating near the side of the body. In addition, changes in the size and distance between the electrode plates can affect the heating (or electromagnetic field) pattern. Therefore, numerical models using the method of moments (MOM) or the finite difference time domain (FDTD) technique are developed to optimize the heating pattern of this EHA before it is used for human trials. The accuracy of the numerical modeling has been achieved by the good agreement between the MOM and FDTD results for the three-plate EHA without a biological body. The versatile FDTD technique is then applied to optimize the EHA design with a human body. Both the numerical and measured data in phantom blocks will be presented. The results of this study will be used to design an optimized system for whole body or regional hyperthermia.
Solvothermal synthesis and electrical conductivity model for the zinc oxide-insulated oil nanofluid
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shen, L.P.; Wang, H.; Dong, M.; Ma, Z.C.; Wang, H.B.
2012-01-01
A new kind of nanofluid, ZnO-insulated oil nanofluid was prepared from ZnO nanoparticles synthesized by solvothermal method. Electrical property measurement shows that the electrical conductivity increases by 973 times after adding 0.75% volumetric fraction of ZnO nanoparticles into the insulated oil. A linear dependence of the electrical conductivity on the volumetric fraction has been observed, while the temperature dependence of the electrical conductivity reveals a nonlinear relationship. An electrical conductivity model is established for the nanofluid by considering both the Brownian motion and electrophoresis of the ZnO nanoparticles. -- Highlights: ► Stable ZnO-insulated oil nanofluid was successfully prepared. ► The electrical conductivity of the ZnO nanofluid is investigated. ► A new model is established to explain the electrical properties of the nanofluid.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Abolfazl Asadian
2014-06-01
Full Text Available The helicopter-borne electromagnetic (HEM frequency-domain exploration method is an airborne electromagnetic (AEM technique that is widely used for vast and rough areas for resistivity imaging. The vast amount of digitized data flowing from the HEM method requires an efficient and accurate inversion algorithm. Generally, the inverse modelling of HEM data in the first step requires a precise and efficient technique provided by a forward modelling algorithm. The exact calculation of the sensitivity matrix or Jacobian is also of the utmost importance. As such, the main objective of this study is to design an efficient algorithm for the forward modelling of HEM frequency-domain data for the configuration of horizontal coplanar (HCP coils using fast Hankel transforms (FHTs. An attempt is also made to use an analytical approach to derive the required equations for the Jacobian matrix. To achieve these goals, an elaborated algorithm for the simultaneous calculation of the forward computation and sensitivity matrix is provided. Finally, using two synthetic models, the accuracy of the calculations of the proposed algorithm is verified. A comparison indicates that the obtained results of forward modelling are highly consistent with those reported in Simon et al. (2009 for a four-layer model. Furthermore, the comparison of the results for the sensitivity matrix for a two-layer model with those obtained from software is being used by the BGR Centre in Germany, showing that the proposed algorithm enjoys a high degree of accuracy in calculating this matrix.
Álvaro, Roberto; González, Jairo; Fraile Ardanuy, José Jesús; Knapen, Luk; Janssens, Davy
2013-01-01
This paper describes the impact of electric mobility on the transmission grid in Flanders region (Belgium), using a micro-simulation activity based models. These models are used to provide temporal and spatial estimation of energy and power demanded by electric vehicles (EVs) in different mobility zones. The increment in the load demand due to electric mobility is added to the background load demand in these mobility areas and the effects over the transmission substations are analyzed. From t...
Modelling the Load Curve of Aggregate Electricity Consumption Using Principal Components
Matteo Manera; Angelo Marzullo
2003-01-01
Since oil is a non-renewable resource with a high environmental impact, and its most common use is to produce combustibles for electricity, reliable methods for modelling electricity consumption can contribute to a more rational employment of this hydrocarbon fuel. In this paper we apply the Principal Components (PC) method to modelling the load curves of Italy, France and Greece on hourly data of aggregate electricity consumption. The empirical results obtained with the PC approach are compa...
The need for revaluation of the model structure for electricity liberalization
Szablewski, Andrzej T.
2011-01-01
The question about an appropriate structure for the electricity industry has been extensively discussed in scientific literature and experts studies. Since the beginning of electricity liberalization, it was apparent for its promoters that such a structure (in this paper referred to as the model structure or ideal structural model) for the electricity sector should involve a separation of its four sub-sectors, i.e., generation, transmission, distribution, and supply. With the e...
BUSINESS MODEL IN ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY USING BUSINESS MODEL CANVAS APPROACH; THE CASE OF PT. XYZ
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Achmad Arief Wicaksono
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The magnitude of opportunities and project values of electricity system in Indonesia encourages PT. XYZ to develop its business in electrical sector which requires business development strategies. This study aims to identify company's business model using Business Model Canvas approach, formulate business development strategy alternatives, and determine the prioritized business development strategy which is appropriate to the manufacturing business model for PT. XYZ. This study utilized a descriptive approach and the nine elements of the Business Model Canvas. Alternative formulation and priority determination of the strategies were obtained by using Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats (SWOT analysis and pairwise comparison. The results of this study are the improvement of Business Model Canvas on the elements of key resources, key activities, key partners and customer segment. In terms of SWOT analysis on the nine elements of the Business Model Canvas for the first business development, the results show an expansion on the power plant construction project as the main contractor, an increase in sales in its core business in supporting equipment industry of oil and gas, a development in the second business i.e. an investment in the electricity sector as an independent renewable emery-based power producer. On its first business development, PT. XYZ selected three Business Model Canvas elements which become the priorities of the company i.e. key resources weighing 0.252, key activities weighing 0.240, and key partners weighing 0.231. On its second business development, the company selected three elements to become their the priorities i.e. key partners weighing 0.225, customer segments weighing 0.217, and key resources weighing 0.215.Keywords: business model canvas, SWOT, pairwise comparison, business model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dinh An Nguyen
2012-07-01
Full Text Available Many of the Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC models proposed in the literature consist of mathematical equations. However, they are not adequately practical for simulating power systems. The proposed model takes into account phenomena such as activation polarization, ohmic polarization, double layer capacitance and mass transport effects present in a PEM fuel cell. Using electrical analogies and a mathematical modeling of PEMFC, the circuit model is established. To evaluate the effectiveness of the circuit model, its static and dynamic performances under load step changes are simulated and compared to the numerical results obtained by solving the mathematical model. Finally, the applicability of our model is demonstrated by simulating a practical system.
Modeling of electric vehicle battery for vehicle-to-grid applications
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pang, Ying; Brady, Cormac; Pellegrino, Giustino
2013-01-01
Electric vehicle battery models are essential when performing analysis of EV systems. The battery package of electric vehicles is complicated and unpredictable because of its chemical based functioning. In this paper, a battery model is presented with a number of internal and external factors taken...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Lawrence
encouraged me to believe that education was the only way to fulfil one's dreams ... liant student, financial constraints prevented him from pursuing. A born ... higher education. .... to fulfil one's dream despite difficulties, which women face. How-.
Li, Cunbin; Wang, Yi; Lin, Shuaishuai
2017-09-01
With the rapid development of the energy internet and the deepening of the electric power reform, the traditional marketing mode of electric power does not apply to most of electric power enterprises, so must seek a breakthrough, however, in the face of increasingly complex marketing information, how to make a quick, reasonable transformation, makes the electric power marketing competitiveness assessment more accurate and objective becomes a big problem. In this paper, cloud model and TOPSIS method is proposed. Firstly, build the electric power marketing competitiveness evaluation index system. Then utilize the cloud model to transform the qualitative evaluation of the marketing data into quantitative values and use the entropy weight method to weaken the subjective factors of evaluation index weight. Finally, by TOPSIS method the closeness degrees of alternatives are obtained. This method provides a novel solution for the electric power marketing competitiveness evaluation. Through the case analysis the effectiveness and feasibility of this model are verified.
Electric power bidding model for practical utility system
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Prabavathi
2018-03-01
Full Text Available A competitive open market environment has been created due to the restructuring in the electricity market. In the new competitive market, mostly a centrally operated pool with a power exchange has been introduced to meet the offers from the competing suppliers with the bids of the customers. In such an open access environment, the formation of bidding strategy is one of the most challenging and important tasks for electricity participants to maximize their profit. To build bidding strategies for power suppliers and consumers in the restructured electricity market, a new mathematical framework is proposed in this paper. It is assumed that each participant submits several blocks of real power quantities along with their bidding prices. The effectiveness of the proposed method is tested on Indian Utility-62 bus system and IEEE-118 bus system. Keywords: Bidding strategy, Day ahead electricity market, Market clearing price, Market clearing volume, Block bid, Intermediate value theorem
Rotating magnetizations in electrical machines: Measurements and modeling
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andreas Thul
2018-05-01
Full Text Available This paper studies the magnetization process in electrical steel sheets for rotational magnetizations as they occur in the magnetic circuit of electrical machines. A four-pole rotational single sheet tester is used to generate the rotating magnetic flux inside the sample. A field-oriented control scheme is implemented to improve the control performance. The magnetization process of different non-oriented materials is analyzed and compared.
Rotating magnetizations in electrical machines: Measurements and modeling
Thul, Andreas; Steentjes, Simon; Schauerte, Benedikt; Klimczyk, Piotr; Denke, Patrick; Hameyer, Kay
2018-05-01
This paper studies the magnetization process in electrical steel sheets for rotational magnetizations as they occur in the magnetic circuit of electrical machines. A four-pole rotational single sheet tester is used to generate the rotating magnetic flux inside the sample. A field-oriented control scheme is implemented to improve the control performance. The magnetization process of different non-oriented materials is analyzed and compared.
An Electricity Price Forecasting Model by Hybrid Structured Deep Neural Networks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ping-Huan Kuo
2018-04-01
Full Text Available Electricity price is a key influencer in the electricity market. Electricity market trades by each participant are based on electricity price. The electricity price adjusted with the change in supply and demand relationship can reflect the real value of electricity in the transaction process. However, for the power generating party, bidding strategy determines the level of profit, and the accurate prediction of electricity price could make it possible to determine a more accurate bidding price. This cannot only reduce transaction risk, but also seize opportunities in the electricity market. In order to effectively estimate electricity price, this paper proposes an electricity price forecasting system based on the combination of 2 deep neural networks, the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN and the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM. In order to compare the overall performance of each algorithm, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE and Root-Mean-Square error (RMSE evaluating measures were applied in the experiments of this paper. Experiment results show that compared with other traditional machine learning methods, the prediction performance of the estimating model proposed in this paper is proven to be the best. By combining the CNN and LSTM models, the feasibility and practicality of electricity price prediction is also confirmed in this paper.
IMPROVING MODEL OF CHANNEL AIRBORN ELECTRICAL POWER SYSTEM OF ALTERNATING CURRENT
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yu. P. Artemenko
2015-01-01
Full Text Available This article is devoted to math modeling of channel of alternating current airborne electrical power-supply system. Mathematical modeling of generator, voltage regulator, constant speed drive is considered.
DYNAMIC MODEL “ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION - GDP” FOR REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sit B.M.
2007-04-01
Full Text Available The article is devoted to the development of econometric models of electricity consumption in Republic of Moldova with the purpose of definition of potential possibilities of GPD influence on electricity consumption processes.In this paper, we examine the causal relationship between the per capita electricity consumption and the per capita GDP for Republic of Moldova using VAR model. Our results show that there is bidirectional causality from per capita GDP to per capita electricity consumption and vice versa. The finding has significant implications from the point of view of energy conservation, emission reduction and economic development.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
An, Li; Liu, Jianguo; Linderman, Marc A. [Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, 13 Natural Resources Building, 48824 East Lansing, MI (United States); Lupi, Frank [Departments of Agricultural Economics and Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, 213F Agriculture Hall, 48824 East Lansing, MI (United States); Huang, Jinyan [Wolong Nature Reserve Administration, Wenchuan County, 623002 Sichuan Province (China)
2002-09-01
Despite its status as a nature reserve, Wolong Nature Reserve (China) has experienced continued loss of giant panda habitat due to human activities such as fuelwood collection. Electricity, though available throughout Wolong, has not replaced fuelwood as an energy source. We used stated preference data obtained from in-person interviews to estimate a random utility model of the choice of adopting electricity for cooking and heating. Willingness to switch to electricity was explained by demographic and electricity factors (price, voltage, and outage frequency). In addition to price, non-price factors such as voltage and outage frequency significantly affect the demand. Thus, lowering electricity prices and increasing electricity quality would encourage local residents to switch from fuelwood to electricity and should be considered in the mix of policies to promote conservation of panda habitat.
3-D modelling the electric field due to ocean tidal flow and comparison with observations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kuvshinov, A.; Junge, A.; Utada, H.
2006-01-01
The tidal motion of the ocean water through the ambient magnetic field, generates secondary electric field. This motionally induced electric field can be detected in the sea or inland and has a potential for electrical soundings of the Earth. A first goal of the paper is to gain an understanding...... that in some coastal regions the amplitudes of the electric field can reach 100 mV/km and 10 mV/km for M2 and O1 tides respectively. The changes of lithosphere resistance produce detectable changes in the tidal electric signals. We show that our predictions are in a good agreement with observations....... of the global distribution of the electric signal due to tidal ocean flow. We simulate the electric signals for two tidal constituents - lunar semidiurnal (M2) and diurnal (O1) tides. We assume a realistic Earth's conductivity model with a surface thin shell and 1-D mantle underneath. Simulations demonstrate...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
An, Li; Liu, Jianguo; Linderman, Marc A.; Lupi, Frank; Huang, Jinyan
2002-01-01
Despite its status as a nature reserve, Wolong Nature Reserve (China) has experienced continued loss of giant panda habitat due to human activities such as fuelwood collection. Electricity, though available throughout Wolong, has not replaced fuelwood as an energy source. We used stated preference data obtained from in-person interviews to estimate a random utility model of the choice of adopting electricity for cooking and heating. Willingness to switch to electricity was explained by demographic and electricity factors (price, voltage, and outage frequency). In addition to price, non-price factors such as voltage and outage frequency significantly affect the demand. Thus, lowering electricity prices and increasing electricity quality would encourage local residents to switch from fuelwood to electricity and should be considered in the mix of policies to promote conservation of panda habitat
Derivation of inner magnetospheric electric field (UNH-IMEF model using Cluster data set
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
H. Matsui
2008-09-01
Full Text Available We derive an inner magnetospheric electric field (UNH-IMEF model at L=2–10 using primarily Cluster electric field data for more than 5 years between February 2001 and October 2006. This electric field data set is divided into several ranges of the interplanetary electric field (IEF values measured by ACE. As ring current simulations which require electric field as an input parameter are often performed at L=2–6.6, we have included statistical results from ground radars and low altitude satellites inside the perigee of Cluster in our data set (L~4. Electric potential patterns are derived from the average electric fields by solving an inverse problem. The electric potential pattern for small IEF values is probably affected by the ionospheric dynamo. The magnitudes of the electric field increase around the evening local time as IEF increases, presumably due to the sub-auroral polarization stream (SAPS. Another region with enhanced electric fields during large IEF periods is located around 9 MLT at L>8, which is possibly related to solar wind-magnetosphere coupling. Our potential patterns are consistent with those derived from self-consistent simulations. As the potential patterns can be interpolated/extrapolated to any discrete IEF value within measured ranges, we thus derive an empirical electric potential model. The performance of the model is evaluated by comparing the electric field derived from the model with original one measured by Cluster and mapped to the equator. The model is open to the public through our website.
Derivation of inner magnetospheric electric field (UNH-IMEF model using Cluster data set
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
H. Matsui
2008-09-01
Full Text Available We derive an inner magnetospheric electric field (UNH-IMEF model at L=2–10 using primarily Cluster electric field data for more than 5 years between February 2001 and October 2006. This electric field data set is divided into several ranges of the interplanetary electric field (IEF values measured by ACE. As ring current simulations which require electric field as an input parameter are often performed at L=2–6.6, we have included statistical results from ground radars and low altitude satellites inside the perigee of Cluster in our data set (L~4. Electric potential patterns are derived from the average electric fields by solving an inverse problem. The electric potential pattern for small IEF values is probably affected by the ionospheric dynamo. The magnitudes of the electric field increase around the evening local time as IEF increases, presumably due to the sub-auroral polarization stream (SAPS. Another region with enhanced electric fields during large IEF periods is located around 9 MLT at L>8, which is possibly related to solar wind-magnetosphere coupling. Our potential patterns are consistent with those derived from self-consistent simulations. As the potential patterns can be interpolated/extrapolated to any discrete IEF value within measured ranges, we thus derive an empirical electric potential model. The performance of the model is evaluated by comparing the electric field derived from the model with original one measured by Cluster and mapped to the equator. The model is open to the public through our website.
A combined modeling approach for wind power feed-in and electricity spot prices
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Keles, Dogan; Genoese, Massimo; Möst, Dominik; Ortlieb, Sebastian; Fichtner, Wolf
2013-01-01
Wind power generation and its impacts on electricity prices has strongly increased in the EU. Therefore, appropriate mark-to-market evaluation of new investments in wind power and energy storage plants should consider the fluctuant generation of wind power and uncertain electricity prices, which are affected by wind power feed-in (WPF). To gain the input data for WPF and electricity prices, simulation models, such as econometric models, can serve as a data basis. This paper describes a combined modeling approach for the simulation of WPF series and electricity prices considering the impacts of WPF on prices based on an autoregressive approach. Thereby WPF series are firstly simulated for each hour of the year and integrated in the electricity price model to generate an hourly resolved price series for a year. The model results demonstrate that the WPF model delivers satisfying WPF series and that the extended electricity price model considering WPF leads to a significant improvement of the electricity price simulation compared to a model version without WPF effects. As the simulated series of WPF and electricity prices also contain the correlation between both series, market evaluation of wind power technologies can be accurately done based on these series. - Highlights: • Wind power feed-in can be directly simulated with stochastic processes. • Non-linear relationship between wind power feed-in and electricity prices. • Price reduction effect of wind power feed-in depends on the actual load. • Considering wind power feed-in effects improves the electricity price simulation. • Combined modeling of both parameters delivers a data basis for evaluation tools
Electrical circuit models for performance modeling of Lithium-Sulfur batteries
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Knap, Vaclav; Stroe, Daniel Ioan; Teodorescu, Remus
2015-01-01
emerging technology for various applications, there is a need for Li-S battery performance model; however, developing such models represents a challenging task due to batteries' complex ongoing chemical reactions. Therefore, the literature review was performed to summarize electrical circuit models (ECMs......) used for modeling the performance behavior of Li-S batteries. The studied Li-S pouch cell was tested in the laboratory in order to parametrize four basic ECM topologies. These topologies were compared by analyzing their voltage estimation accuracy values, which were obtained for different battery...... current profiles. Based on these results, the 3 R-C ECM was chosen and the Li-S battery cell discharging performance model with current dependent parameters was derived and validated....
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Romero-Salazar, C., E-mail: cromeros@ifuap.buap.mx; Hernández-Flores, O.A.
2016-02-15
Highlights: • An anisotropic critical state model that incorporates a non-zero electric field is proposed. • The critical current density is driven by the electric field. • To determinate the magnetic properties is not required a material law for the electric field magnitude. - Abstract: The conventional elliptic critical-state models (ECSM) establish that the electric field vector is zero when it flows a critical current density in a type-II superconductor. This proposal incorporates a finite electric field on the ECSM to study samples with anisotropic-current-carrying capacity. Our theoretical scheme has the advantage of being able to dispense of a material law which drives the electric field magnitude, however, it does not consider the magnetic history of the superconductor.
Polish model of electric energy market-bulk energy tariff
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Malysa, H.
1994-01-01
The key problem of electric energy supply industry reform is gradually launching a competitive wholesale generation market since 1994. In process of this transformation the important role plays bulk energy supply tariff in electricity transactions between Polish Power Grid Company and distribution and retail supply companies (distributors). Premises, factors and constrains having influence on shaping of the bulk energy supply tariff are presented. A brief outline of economic foundation for calculation of demand charges and energy rate is given. Particular attention has been paid to description of bulk energy supply tariff structure. The scope and manner of adjustment of this tariff to circumstances and constrains in the initial stage of the wholesale electric energy market have been described as well. (author). 8 refs
Ludeña, E V; Echevarría, L; Lopez, X; Ugalde, J M
2012-02-28
We consider the calculation of non-Born-Oppenheimer, nBO, one-particle densities for both electrons and nuclei. We show that the nBO one-particle densities evaluated in terms of translationally invariant coordinates are independent of the wavefunction describing the motion of center of mass of the whole system. We show that they depend, however, on an arbitrary reference point from which the positions of the vectors labeling the particles are determined. We examine the effect that this arbitrary choice has on the topology of the one-particle density by selecting the Hooke-Calogero model of a three-body system for which expressions for the one-particle densities can be readily obtained in analytic form. We extend this analysis to the one-particle densities obtained from full Coulomb interaction wavefunctions for three-body systems. We conclude, in view of the fact that there is a close link between the choice of the reference point and the topology of one-particle densities that the molecular structure inferred from the topology of these densities is not unique. We analyze the behavior of one-particle densities for the Hooke-Calogero Born-Oppenheimer, BO, wavefunction and show that topological transitions are also present in this case for a particular mass value of the light particles even though in the BO regime the nuclear masses are infinite. In this vein, we argue that the change in topology caused by variation of the mass ratio between light and heavy particles does not constitute a true indication in the nBO regime of the emergence of molecular structure.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hall, Stephen; Roelich, Katy
2016-01-01
This research investigates the new opportunities that business model innovations are creating in electricity supply markets at the sub-national scale. These local supply business models can offer significant benefits to the electricity system, but also generate economic, social, and environmental values that are not well accounted for in current policy or regulation. This paper uses the UK electricity supply market to investigate new business models which rely on more complex value propositions than the incumbent utility model. Nine archetypal local supply business models are identified and their value propositions, value capture methods, and barriers to market entry are analysed. This analysis defines 'complex value' as a key concept in understanding business model innovation in the energy sector. The process of complex value identification poses a challenge to energy researchers, commercial firms and policymakers in liberalised markets; to investigate the opportunities for system efficiency and diverse outcomes that new supplier business models can offer to the electricity system. - Highlights: •Business models of energy supply markets shape energy transitions. •The British system misses four opportunities of local electricity supply. •Nine new business model archetypes of local supply are analysed. •New electricity business models have complex value propositions. •A process for policy response to business model innovation is presented.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cho, Youngsang; Lee, Jongsu; Kim, Tai-Yoo [Technology Management, Economics and Policy Program, College of Engineering, Seoul National University, Shillim-Dong San56-1, Gwanak-Ku, Seoul 151-742 (Korea)
2007-09-15
The authors investigate the effects of information and communications technology (ICT) investment, electricity price, and oil price on the consumption of electricity in South Korea's industries using a logistic growth model. The concept electricity intensity is used to explain electricity consumption patterns. An empirical analysis implies that ICT investment in manufacturing industries that normally consume relatively large amounts of electricity promotes input factor substitution away from the labor intensive to the electricity intensive. Moreover, results also suggest that ICT investment in some specific manufacturing sectors is conducive to the reduction of electricity consumption, whereas ICT investment in the service sector and most manufacturing sectors increases electricity consumption. It is concluded that electricity prices critically affect electricity consumption in half of South Korea's industrial sectors, but not in the other half, a finding that differs somewhat from previous research results. Reasons are suggested to explain why the South Korean case is so different. Policymakers may find this study useful, as it answers the question of whether ICT investment can ultimately reduce energy consumption and may aid in planning the capacity of South Korea's national electric power. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cho, Youngsang; Lee, Jongsu; Kim, Tai-Yoo
2007-01-01
The authors investigate the effects of information and communications technology (ICT) investment, electricity price, and oil price on the consumption of electricity in South Korea's industries using a logistic growth model. The concept electricity intensity is used to explain electricity consumption patterns. An empirical analysis implies that ICT investment in manufacturing industries that normally consume relatively large amounts of electricity promotes input factor substitution away from the labor intensive to the electricity intensive. Moreover, results also suggest that ICT investment in some specific manufacturing sectors is conducive to the reduction of electricity consumption, whereas ICT investment in the service sector and most manufacturing sectors increases electricity consumption. It is concluded that electricity prices critically affect electricity consumption in half of South Korea's industrial sectors, but not in the other half, a finding that differs somewhat from previous research results. Reasons are suggested to explain why the South Korean case is so different. Policymakers may find this study useful, as it answers the question of whether ICT investment can ultimately reduce energy consumption and may aid in planning the capacity of South Korea's national electric power. (author)
Nucleon electric polarizability in soliton models and the role of the seagull terms
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Scoccola, N.N.; Cohen, T.D.
1996-01-01
The full Hamiltonian of the soliton models contains no electric seagull terms. Here it is shown that if one restricts the fields to the collective subspace then electric seagull terms are induced in the effective Hamiltonian. These effective seagull contributions are consistent with gauge invariance. They also reproduce the leading non-analytic behavior of a large N c chiral perturbation theory calculation of the electric polarizability. (orig.)
Electrical circuit modeling of conductors with skin effect
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kerst, D.W.; Sprott, J.C.
1986-01-01
The electrical impedance of a lossy conductor is a complicated function of time (or frequency) because of the skin effect. By solving the diffusion equation for magnetic fields in conductors of several prototypical shapes, the impedance can be calculated as a function of time for a step function of current. The solution suggests an electrical circuit representation that allows calculation of time-dependent voltages and currents of arbitrary waveforms. A technique using an operational amplifier to determine the current in such a conductor by measuring some external voltage is described. Useful analytical approximations to the results are derived
Modelling grid losses and the geographic distribution of electricity generation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Østergaard, Poul Alberg
2005-01-01
In Denmark more than 40% of the electricity consumption is covered by geographically scattered electricity sources namely wind power and local CHP (cogeneration of heat and power) plants. This causes problems in regard to load balancing and possible grid overloads. The potential grid problems...... and methods for solving these are analysed in this article on the basis of energy systems analyses, geographic distribution of consumption and production and grid load-flow analyses. It is concluded that by introducing scattered load balancing using local CHP plants actively and using interruptible loads...
Validity of the Cauchy-Born rule applied to discrete cellular-scale models of biological tissues
Davit, Y.; Osborne, J. M.; Byrne, H. M.; Gavaghan, D.; Pitt-Francis, J.
2013-01-01
The development of new models of biological tissues that consider cells in a discrete manner is becoming increasingly popular as an alternative to continuum methods based on partial differential equations, although formal relationships between
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yanan Liu
2016-10-01
Full Text Available There are many uncertainties and risks in residential electricity consumption associated with economic development. Knowledge of the relationship between residential electricity consumption and its key determinant—income—is important to the sustainable development of the electric power industry. Using panel data from 30 provinces for the 1995–2012 period, this study investigates how residential electricity consumption changes as incomes increase in China. Previous studies typically used linear or quadratic double-logarithmic models imposing ex ante restrictions on the indistinct relationship between residential electricity consumption and income. Contrary to those models, we employed a reduced piecewise linear model that is self-adaptive and highly flexible and circumvents the problem of “prior restrictions”. Robust tests of different segment specifications and regression methods are performed to ensure the validity of the research. The results provide strong evidence that the income elasticity was approximately one, and it remained stable throughout the estimation period. The income threshold at which residential electricity consumption automatically remains stable or slows has not been reached. To ensure the sustainable development of the electric power industry, introducing higher energy efficiency standards for electrical appliances and improving income levels are vital. Government should also emphasize electricity conservation in the industrial sector rather than in residential sector.
Hart, Robert James
In the current thesis, the 4-probe electrical resistance of carbon fiber-reinforced polymer (CFRP) composites is utilized as a metric for sensing low-velocity impact damage. A robust method has been developed for recovering the directionally dependent electrical resistivities using an experimental line-type 4-probe resistance method. Next, the concept of effective conducting thickness was uniquely applied in the development of a brand new point-type 4-probe method for applications with electrically anisotropic materials. An extensive experimental study was completed to characterize the 4-probe electrical resistance of CFRP specimens using both the traditional line-type and new point-type methods. Leveraging the concept of effective conducting thickness, a novel method was developed for building 4-probe electrical finite element (FE) models in COMSOL. The electrical models were validated against experimental resistance measurements and the FE models demonstrated predictive capabilities when applied to CFRP specimens with varying thickness and layup. These new models demonstrated a significant improvement in accuracy compared to previous literature and could provide a framework for future advancements in FE modeling of electrically anisotropic materials. FE models were then developed in ABAQUS for evaluating the influence of prescribed localized damage on the 4-probe resistance. Experimental data was compiled on the impact response of various CFRP laminates, and was used in the development of quasi- static FE models for predicting presence of impact-induced delamination. The simulation-based delamination predictions were then integrated into the electrical FE models for the purpose of studying the influence of realistic damage patterns on electrical resistance. When the size of the delamination damage was moderate compared to the electrode spacing, the electrical resistance increased by less than 1% due to the delamination damage. However, for a specimen with large
Al-Hallaj, Said; Selman, J. R.
A major obstacle to the development of commercially successful electric vehicles (EV) or hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) is the lack of a suitably sized battery. Lithium ion batteries are viewed as the solution if only they could be "scaled-up safely", i.e. if thermal management problems could be overcome so the batteries could be designed and manufactured in much larger sizes than the commercially available near-2-Ah cells. Here, we review a novel thermal management system using phase-change material (PCM). A prototype of this PCM-based system is presently being manufactured. A PCM-based system has never been tested before with lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries and battery packs, although its mode of operation is exceptionally well suited for the cell chemistry of the most common commercially available Li-ion batteries. The thermal management system described here is intended specifically for EV/HEV applications. It has a high potential for providing effective thermal management without introducing moving components. Thereby, the performance of EV/HEV batteries may be improved without complicating the system design and incurring major additional cost, as is the case with "active" cooling systems requiring air or liquid circulation.
Dual symmetry in Born-Infeld theory
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Khademi, S; Ayoubi, A
2008-01-01
Born-Infeld theory is a non-linear formalism which has many applications in string and electromagnetic theories. Although, the existence of magnetic monopoles and dyons are suggested by Born-Infeld theory, but this theory is not invariant under the dual transformations. In this theory electric fields for point charged particles are not singular at origin (r = 0), but magnetic fields and vector potentials are still singular. In this paper we show that the vanishing of dual symmetry is responsible for these singularities. Furthermore, we present the dual symmetric Born-Infeld theory, by a symmetric definition of electromagnetic fields in terms of new scalar and vector potentials, as well as the ordinary ones. All singularities of vector potential and magnetic field are removed as an immediate consequence of this symmetry.
Exploration of dispatch model integrating wind generators and electric vehicles
Haque, A.N.M.M.; Ibn Saif, A.U.N.; Nguyen, H.P.; Shariat Torbaghan, S.
2016-01-01
In recent years, the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in the electricity generation mix has been expanding rapidly. However, limited predictability of the RES poses challenges for traditional scheduling and dispatching mechanisms based on unit commitment (UC) and economic dispatch (ED). This
Electrical stimulation induces propagated colonic contractions in an experimental model.
Aellen, S; Wiesel, P H; Gardaz, J-P; Schlageter, V; Bertschi, M; Virag, N; Givel, J-C
2009-02-01
Direct colonic electrical stimulation may prove to be a treatment option for specific motility disorders such as chronic constipation. The aim of this study was to provoke colonic contractions using electrical stimulation delivered from a battery-operated device. Electrodes were inserted into the caecal seromuscular layer of eight anaesthetized pigs. Contractions were induced by a neurostimulator (Medtronic 3625). Caecal motility was measured simultaneously by video image analysis, manometry and a technique assessing colonic transit. Caecal contractions were generated using 8-10 V amplitude, 1000 micros pulse width, 120 Hz frequency for 10-30 s, with an intensity of 7-15 mA. The maximal contraction strength was observed after 20-25 s. Electrical stimulation was followed by a relaxation phase of 1.5-2 min during which contractions propagated orally and aborally over at least 10 cm. Spontaneous and stimulated caecal motility values were significantly different for both intraluminal pressure (mean(s.d.) 332(124) and 463(187) mmHg respectively; P < 0.001, 42 experiments) and movement of contents (1.6(0.9) and 3.9(2.8) mm; P < 0.001, 40 experiments). Electrical stimulation modulated caecal motility, and provoked localized and propagated colonic contractions.
Modelling the Aggregated Dynamic Response of Electric Vehicles
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ziras, Charalampos; Hu, Junjie; You, Shi
2017-01-01
There is an increasing interest in the use of electric vehicles (EVs) for providing fast frequency reserves due to their large installed capacity and their very fast response. Most works focus on scheduling and optimization and usually neglect their aggregated dynamic response, which...
Evaluating North American Electric Grid Reliability Using the Barabasi-Albert Network Model
Chassin, David P.; Posse, Christian
2004-01-01
The reliability of electric transmission systems is examined using a scale-free model of network structure and failure propagation. The topologies of the North American eastern and western electric networks are analyzed to estimate their reliability based on the Barabasi-Albert network model. A commonly used power system reliability index is computed using a simple failure propagation model. The results are compared to the values of power system reliability indices previously obtained using s...
Power-based electric vehicle energy consumption model: Model development and validation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fiori, Chiara; Ahn, Kyoungho; Rakha, Hesham A.
2016-01-01
Highlights: • The study developed an instantaneous energy consumption model (VT-CPEM) for EVs. • The model captures instantaneous braking energy regeneration. • The model can be used for transportation modeling and vehicle applications (e.g. eco-routing). • The proposed model can be easily calibrated using publically available EV data. • Usages of air conditioning and heating systems reduce EV energy consumption by up to 10% and 24%, respectively. - Abstract: The limited drive range (The maximum distance that an EV can travel.) of Electric Vehicles (EVs) is one of the major challenges that EV manufacturers are attempting to overcome. To this end, a simple, accurate, and efficient energy consumption model is needed to develop real-time eco-driving and eco-routing systems that can enhance the energy efficiency of EVs and thus extend their travel range. Although numerous publications have focused on the modeling of EV energy consumption levels, these studies are limited to measuring energy consumption of an EV’s control algorithm, macro-project evaluations, or simplified well-to-wheels analyses. Consequently, this paper addresses this need by developing a simple EV energy model that computes an EV’s instantaneous energy consumption using second-by-second vehicle speed, acceleration and roadway grade data as input variables. In doing so, the model estimates the instantaneous braking energy regeneration. The proposed model can be easily implemented in the following applications: in-vehicle, Smartphone eco-driving, eco-routing and transportation simulation software to quantify the network-wide energy consumption levels for a fleet of EVs. One of the main advantages of EVs is their ability to recover energy while braking using a regenerative braking system. State-of-the-art vehicle energy consumption models consider an average constant regenerative braking energy efficiency or regenerative braking factors that are mainly dependent on the vehicle’s average
A critical survey of agent-based wholesale electricity market models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Weidlich, Anke; Veit, Daniel
2008-01-01
The complexity of electricity markets calls for rich and flexible modeling techniques that help to understand market dynamics and to derive advice for the design of appropriate regulatory frameworks. Agent-Based Computational Economics (ACE) is a fairly young research paradigm that offers methods for realistic electricity market modeling. A growing number of researchers have developed agent-based models for simulating electricity markets. The diversity of approaches makes it difficult to overview the field of ACE electricity research; this literature survey should guide the way through and describe the state-of-the-art of this research area. In a conclusive summary, shortcomings of existing approaches and open issues that should be addressed by ACE electricity researchers are critically discussed. (author)
Holzer, B R
2005-11-01
It is known for many years that tick-borne diseases have worldwide a high economical impact on farming industry and veterinary medicine. But only in the last twenty years the importance of such diseases were notified in human medicine by the medical community and the public with emerging of the tick borne encephalitis virus and the description of Borrelia burgdorferi. It is often forgotten that many other infectious agents as bacteria, virus, Rickettsia or protozoa can be transmitted by ticks. Such diseases are rarely diagnosed in Europe either they are overlooked and misdiagnosed or they are connected with special professional activities. The development of new regions for tourism with different out door activities (adventure trips, trekking, hunting) leads to an exposure to different tick borne diseases, which are often misdiagnosed.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Esfahania, M. Nasr; Sonne, Mads Rostgaard; Hattel, J. Henri
2016-01-01
of thermal and mechanical stresses is achieved by eliminating the diagonalization matrix of entropy in the quasiharmonic system. This leads to a reduction in the degrees of freedom by more than 99} in comparison with equivalent Molecular Dynamics models. For the purpose of validation, results obtained...
Short-term electricity price forecast based on the improved hybrid model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dong Yao; Wang Jianzhou; Jiang He; Wu Jie
2011-01-01
Highlights: → The proposed models can detach high volatility and daily seasonality of electricity price. → The improved hybrid forecast models can make full use of the advantages of individual models. → The proposed models create commendable improvements that are relatively satisfactorily for current research. → The proposed models do not require making complicated decisions about the explicit form. - Abstract: Half-hourly electricity price in power system are volatile, electricity price forecast is significant information which can help market managers and participants involved in electricity market to prepare their corresponding bidding strategies to maximize their benefits and utilities. However, the fluctuation of electricity price depends on the common effect of many factors and there is a very complicated random in its evolution process. Therefore, it is difficult to forecast half-hourly prices with traditional only one model for different behaviors of half-hourly prices. This paper proposes the improved forecasting model that detaches high volatility and daily seasonality for electricity price of New South Wales in Australia based on Empirical Mode Decomposition, Seasonal Adjustment and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average. The prediction errors are analyzed and compared with the ones obtained from the traditional Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model. The comparisons demonstrate that the proposed model can improve the prediction accuracy noticeably.
Short-term electricity price forecast based on the improved hybrid model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dong Yao, E-mail: dongyao20051987@yahoo.cn [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Wang Jianzhou, E-mail: wjz@lzu.edu.cn [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Jiang He; Wu Jie [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China)
2011-08-15
Highlights: {yields} The proposed models can detach high volatility and daily seasonality of electricity price. {yields} The improved hybrid forecast models can make full use of the advantages of individual models. {yields} The proposed models create commendable improvements that are relatively satisfactorily for current research. {yields} The proposed models do not require making complicated decisions about the explicit form. - Abstract: Half-hourly electricity price in power system are volatile, electricity price forecast is significant information which can help market managers and participants involved in electricity market to prepare their corresponding bidding strategies to maximize their benefits and utilities. However, the fluctuation of electricity price depends on the common effect of many factors and there is a very complicated random in its evolution process. Therefore, it is difficult to forecast half-hourly prices with traditional only one model for different behaviors of half-hourly prices. This paper proposes the improved forecasting model that detaches high volatility and daily seasonality for electricity price of New South Wales in Australia based on Empirical Mode Decomposition, Seasonal Adjustment and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average. The prediction errors are analyzed and compared with the ones obtained from the traditional Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model. The comparisons demonstrate that the proposed model can improve the prediction accuracy noticeably.
High Performance Electrical Modeling and Simulation Verification Test Suite - Tier I; TOPICAL
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
SCHELLS, REGINA L.; BOGDAN, CAROLYN W.; WIX, STEVEN D.
2001-01-01
This document describes the High Performance Electrical Modeling and Simulation (HPEMS) Global Verification Test Suite (VERTS). The VERTS is a regression test suite used for verification of the electrical circuit simulation codes currently being developed by the HPEMS code development team. This document contains descriptions of the Tier I test cases
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hong-Juan Li
2013-04-01
Full Text Available Electric load forecasting is an important issue for a power utility, associated with the management of daily operations such as energy transfer scheduling, unit commitment, and load dispatch. Inspired by strong non-linear learning capability of support vector regression (SVR, this paper presents a SVR model hybridized with the empirical mode decomposition (EMD method and auto regression (AR for electric load forecasting. The electric load data of the New South Wales (Australia market are employed for comparing the forecasting performances of different forecasting models. The results confirm the validity of the idea that the proposed model can simultaneously provide forecasting with good accuracy and interpretability.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wei Jingyuan; Smeers, Y.; Canon, E.
1995-01-01
An integrated market organized by regulated electric utilities is modelled. It is assumed that, given a price vector for the exchange of electricity between each pair of neighboring utilities, utilities independently maximize their own domestic social welfare subject to the zero profit constraint. An equilibrium price vector for exchanges among utilities is defined as the one which clears the exchanges for all pair of business partners. A single piecewise linear model is formulated for computing market equilibria. The model is used to simulate the electricity supply market organized by 11 western European countries
Operating characteristics and modeling of the LLNL 100-kV electric gun
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Osher, J.E.; Barnes, G.; Chau, H.H.; Lee, R.S.; Lee, C.; Speer, R.; Weingart, R.C.
1989-01-01
In the electric gun, the explosion of an electrically heated metal foil and the accompanying magnetic forces drive a thin flyer plate up a short barrel. Flyer velocities of up to 18 km/s make the gun useful for hypervelocity impact studies. The authors briefly review the technological evolution of the exploding-metal circuit elements that power the gun, describe the 100-kV electric gun designed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in some detail, and present the general principles of electric gun operation. They compare the experimental performance of the LLNL gun with a simple model and with predictions of a magnetohydrodynamics code
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kiwamoto, R., E-mail: reiko.kiwamoto@wur.nl; Spenkelink, A.; Rietjens, I.M.C.M.; Punt, A.
2015-01-01
Acyclic α,β-unsaturated aldehydes present in food raise a concern because the α,β-unsaturated aldehyde moiety is considered a structural alert for genotoxicity. However, controversy remains on whether in vivo at realistic dietary exposure DNA adduct formation is significant. The aim of the present study was to develop physiologically based kinetic/dynamic (PBK/D) models to examine dose-dependent detoxification and DNA adduct formation of a group of 18 food-borne acyclic α,β-unsaturated aldehydes without 2- or 3-alkylation, and with no more than one conjugated double bond. Parameters for the PBK/D models were obtained using quantitative structure–activity relationships (QSARs) defined with a training set of six selected aldehydes. Using the QSARs, PBK/D models for the other 12 aldehydes were defined. Results revealed that DNA adduct formation in the liver increases with decreasing bulkiness of the molecule especially due to less efficient detoxification. 2-Propenal (acrolein) was identified to induce the highest DNA adduct levels. At realistic dietary intake, the predicted DNA adduct levels for all aldehydes were two orders of magnitude lower than endogenous background levels observed in disease free human liver, suggesting that for all 18 aldehydes DNA adduct formation is negligible at the relevant levels of dietary intake. The present study provides a proof of principle for the use of QSAR-based PBK/D modelling to facilitate group evaluations and read-across in risk assessment. - Highlights: • Physiologically based in silico models were made for 18 α,β-unsaturated aldehydes. • Kinetic parameters were determined by in vitro incubations and a QSAR approach. • DNA adduct formation was negligible at levels relevant for dietary intake. • The use of QSAR-based PBK/D modelling facilitates group evaluations and read-across.
Woldeyesus, Tibebe Argaw
Water supply constraints can significantly restrict electric power generation, and such constraints are expected to worsen with future climate change. The overarching goal of this thesis is to incorporate stochastic water-climate interactions into electricity portfolio models and evaluate various pathways for water savings in co-managed water-electric utilities. Colorado Springs Utilities (CSU) is used as a case study to explore the above issues. The thesis consists of three objectives: Characterize seasonality of water withdrawal intensity factors (WWIF) for electric power generation and develop a risk assessment framework due to water shortages; Incorporate water constraints into electricity portfolio models and evaluate the impact of varying capital investments (both power generation and cooling technologies) on water use and greenhouse gas emissions; Compare the unit cost and overall water savings from both water and electric sectors in co-managed utilities to facilitate overall water management. This thesis provided the first discovery and characterization of seasonality of WWIF with distinct summertime and wintertime variations of +/-17% compared to the power plant average (0.64gal/kwh) which itself is found to be significantly higher than the literature average (0.53gal/kwh). Both the streamflow and WWIF are found to be highly correlated with monthly average temperature (r-sq = 89%) and monthly precipitation (r-sq of 38%) enabling stochastic simulation of future WWIF under moderate climate change scenario. Future risk to electric power generation also showed the risk to be underestimated significantly when using either the literature average or the power plant average WWIF. Seasonal variation in WWIF along with seasonality in streamflow, electricity demand and other municipal water demands along with storage are shown to be important factors for more realistic risk estimation. The unlimited investment in power generation and/or cooling technologies is also
Boger, R. A.; Low, R.; Paull, S.; Anyamba, A.; Soebiyanto, R. P.
2017-12-01
Temperature and precipitation are important drivers of mosquito population dynamics, and a growing set of models have been proposed to characterize these relationships. Validation of these models, and development of broader theories across mosquito species and regions could nonetheless be improved by comparing observations from a global dataset of mosquito larvae with satellite-based measurements of meteorological variables. Citizen science data can be particularly useful for two such aspects of research into the meteorological drivers of mosquito populations: i) Broad-scale validation of mosquito distribution models and ii) Generation of quantitative hypotheses regarding changes to mosquito abundance and phenology across scales. The recently released GLOBE Observer Mosquito Habitat Mapper (GO-MHM) app engages citizen scientists in identifying vector taxa, mapping breeding sites and decommissioning non-natural habitats, and provides a potentially useful new tool for validating mosquito ubiquity projections based on the analysis of remotely sensed environmental data. Our early work with GO-MHM data focuses on two objectives: validating citizen science reports of Aedes aegypti distribution through comparison with accepted scientific data sources, and exploring the relationship between extreme temperature and precipitation events and subsequent observations of mosquito larvae. Ultimately the goal is to develop testable hypotheses regarding the shape and character of this relationship between mosquito species and regions.
Water-Constrained Electric Sector Capacity Expansion Modeling Under Climate Change Scenarios
Cohen, S. M.; Macknick, J.; Miara, A.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Averyt, K.; Meldrum, J.; Corsi, F.; Prousevitch, A.; Rangwala, I.
2015-12-01
Over 80% of U.S. electricity generation uses a thermoelectric process, which requires significant quantities of water for power plant cooling. This water requirement exposes the electric sector to vulnerabilities related to shifts in water availability driven by climate change as well as reductions in power plant efficiencies. Electricity demand is also sensitive to climate change, which in most of the United States leads to warming temperatures that increase total cooling-degree days. The resulting demand increase is typically greater for peak demand periods. This work examines the sensitivity of the development and operations of the U.S. electric sector to the impacts of climate change using an electric sector capacity expansion model that endogenously represents seasonal and local water resource availability as well as climate impacts on water availability, electricity demand, and electricity system performance. Capacity expansion portfolios and water resource implications from 2010 to 2050 are shown at high spatial resolution under a series of climate scenarios. Results demonstrate the importance of water availability for future electric sector capacity planning and operations, especially under more extreme hotter and drier climate scenarios. In addition, region-specific changes in electricity demand and water resources require region-specific responses that depend on local renewable resource availability and electricity market conditions. Climate change and the associated impacts on water availability and temperature can affect the types of power plants that are built, their location, and their impact on regional water resources.
Simulating the value of electric-vehicle-grid integration using a behaviourally realistic model
Wolinetz, Michael; Axsen, Jonn; Peters, Jotham; Crawford, Curran
2018-02-01
Vehicle-grid integration (VGI) uses the interaction between electric vehicles and the electrical grid to provide benefits that may include reducing the cost of using intermittent renwable electricity or providing a financial incentive for electric vehicle ownerhip. However, studies that estimate the value of VGI benefits have largely ignored how consumer behaviour will affect the magnitude of the impact. Here, we simulate the long-term impact of VGI using behaviourally realistic and empirically derived models of vehicle adoption and charging combined with an electricity system model. We focus on the case where a central entity manages the charging rate and timing for participating electric vehicles. VGI is found not to increase the adoption of electric vehicles, but does have a a small beneficial impact on electricity prices. By 2050, VGI reduces wholesale electricity prices by 0.6-0.7% (0.7 MWh-1, 2010 CAD) relative to an equivalent scenario without VGI. Excluding consumer behaviour from the analysis inflates the value of VGI.
A Model for Periodic Nonlinear Electric Field Structures in Space Plasmas
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Qureshi, M.N.S.; Shi Jiankui; Liu Zhenxing
2009-01-01
In this study, we present a physical model to explain the generation mechanism of nonlinear periodic waves with a large amplitude electric field structures propagating obliquely and exactly parallel to the magnetic field. The 'Sagdeev potential' from the MHD equations is derived and the nonlinear electric field waveforms are obtained when the Mach number, direction of propagation, and the initial electric field satisfy certain plasma conditions. For the parallel propagation, the amplitude of the electric field waves with ion-acoustic mode increases with the increase of initial electric field and Mach number but its frequency decreases with the increase of Mach number. The amplitude and frequency of the electric field waves with ion-cyclotron mode decrease with the increase of Mach number and become less spiky, and its amplitude increases with the increase of initial electric field. For the oblique propagation, only periodic electric field wave with an ion-cyclotron mode obtained, its amplitude and frequency increase with the increase of Mach number and become spiky. From our model the electric field structures show periodic, spiky, and saw-tooth behaviours corresponding to different plasma conditions.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jingmin Wang
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Electricity consumption forecast is perceived to be a growing hot topic in such a situation that China’s economy has entered a period of new normal and the demand of electric power has slowed down. Therefore, exploring Chinese electricity consumption influence mechanism and forecasting electricity consumption are crucial to formulate electrical energy plan scientifically and guarantee the sustainable economic and social development. Research has identified medium and long term electricity consumption forecast as a difficult study influenced by various factors. This paper proposed an improved Artificial Bee Colony (ABC algorithm which combined with multivariate linear regression (MLR for exploring the influencing mechanism of various factors on Chinese electricity consumption and forecasting electricity consumption in the future. The results indicated that the improved ABC algorithm in view of the various factors is superior to traditional models just considering unilateralism in accuracy and persuasion. The overall findings cast light on this model which provides a new scientific and effective way to forecast the medium and long term electricity consumption.
Bentonite electrical conductivity: a model based on series–parallel transport
Lima, Ana T.
2010-01-30
Bentonite has significant applications nowadays, among them as landfill liners, in concrete industry as a repairing material, and as drilling mud in oil well construction. The application of an electric field to such perimeters is under wide discussion, and subject of many studies. However, to understand the behaviour of such an expansive and plastic material under the influence of an electric field, the perception of its electrical properties is essential. This work serves to compare existing data of such electrical behaviour with new laboratorial results. Electrical conductivity is a pertinent parameter since it indicates how much a material is prone to conduct electricity. In the current study, total conductivity of a compacted porous medium was established to be dependent upon density of the bentonite plug. Therefore, surface conductivity was addressed and a series-parallel transport model used to quantify/predict the total conductivity of the system. © The Author(s) 2010.
Validation of a predictive model for smart control of electrical energy storage
Homan, Bart; van Leeuwen, Richard Pieter; Smit, Gerardus Johannes Maria; Zhu, Lei; de Wit, Jan B.
2016-01-01
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the applicability of a relatively simple model which is based on energy conservation for model predictions as part of smart control of thermal and electric storage. The paper reviews commonly used predictive models. Model predictions of charging and
Modeling Electric Vehicle Benefits Connected to Smart Grids
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stadler, Michael; Marnay, Chris; Mendes, Goncalo; Kloess, Maximillian; Cardoso, Goncalo; Megel, Olivier; Siddiqui, Afzal
2011-01-01
Connecting electric storage technologies to smartgrids will have substantial implications in building energy systems. Local storage will enable demand response. Mobile storage devices in electric vehicles (EVs) are in direct competition with conventional stationary sources at the building. EVs will change the financial as well as environmental attractiveness of on-site generation (e.g. PV, or fuel cells). In order to examine the impact of EVs on building energy costs and CO2 emissions in 2020, a distributed-energy-resources adoption problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear program with minimization of annual building energy costs or CO2 emissions. The mixed-integer linear program is applied to a set of 139 different commercial buildings in California and example results as well as the aggregated economic and environmental benefits are reported. The research shows that considering second life of EV batteries might be very beneficial for commercial buildings.
Neotropical electric fishes (Gymnotiformes as model organisms for bioassays
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Milena Ferreira
2015-04-01
Full Text Available Electric fishes (Gymnotiformes inhabit Central and South America and form a relatively large group with more than 200 species. Besides a taxonomic challenge due to their still unresolved systematic, wide distribution and the variety of habitats they occupy, these fishes have been intensively studied due to their peculiar use of bioelectricity for electrolocation and communication. Conventional analysis of cells, tissues and organs have been complemented with the studies on the electric organ discharges of these fishes. This review compiles the results of 13 bioassays developed during the last 50 years, which used the quickness, low costs and functionality of the bioelectric data collection of Gymnotiformes to evaluate the effects of environmental contaminants and neuroactive drugs.
Modeling Electric Vehicle Benefits Connected to Smart Grids
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Stadler, Michael; Marnay, Chris; Mendes, Goncalo; Kloess, Maximillian; Cardoso, Goncalo; M& #233; gel, Olivier; Siddiqui, Afzal
2011-07-01
Connecting electric storage technologies to smartgrids will have substantial implications in building energy systems. Local storage will enable demand response. Mobile storage devices in electric vehicles (EVs) are in direct competition with conventional stationary sources at the building. EVs will change the financial as well as environmental attractiveness of on-site generation (e.g. PV, or fuel cells). In order to examine the impact of EVs on building energy costs and CO2 emissions in 2020, a distributed-energy-resources adoption problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear program with minimization of annual building energy costs or CO2 emissions. The mixed-integer linear program is applied to a set of 139 different commercial buildings in California and example results as well as the aggregated economic and environmental benefits are reported. The research shows that considering second life of EV batteries might be very beneficial for commercial buildings.
Forecasting electricity spot-prices using linear univariate time-series models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo; Hlouskova, Jaroslava; Kossmeier, Stephan; Obersteiner, Michael
2004-01-01
This paper studies the forecasting abilities of a battery of univariate models on hourly electricity spot prices, using data from the Leipzig Power Exchange. The specifications studied include autoregressive models, autoregressive-moving average models and unobserved component models. The results show that specifications, where each hour of the day is modelled separately present uniformly better forecasting properties than specifications for the whole time-series, and that the inclusion of simple probabilistic processes for the arrival of extreme price events can lead to improvements in the forecasting abilities of univariate models for electricity spot prices. (Author)
Anisotropic modelling of the electrical conductivity of fractured bedrock
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Flykt, M.J.; Sihvola, A.H.; Eloranta, E.H.
1995-01-01
The electromagnetic characterization of fractured bedrock is of importance when studying the final disposal of nuclear waste. The different types of discontinuities at all scales in rocks can be viewed as an inhomogeneity. In some cases there are reasons to assume the influence of the discontinuities on electrical conductivity is anisotropic in character. The effort has been made to use electromagnetic mixing rules in the definition of an equivalent homogeneous anisotropic conductivity tensor for such fractured rock mass. (author) (16 refs., 6 figs.)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kuo-Hsin Tseng
2014-05-01
Full Text Available The dynamics of the Poyang Lake in Jiangxi province, People’s Republic of China has been monitored to demonstrate the association of various variables with the distribution of schistosomiasis transmission with particular reference to the annual variation of the habitats for the Oncomelania snail, the intermediate host of Schistosoma japonicum. This was studied with multiple space-borne sensors, including the ENVISAT radar altimeter (RA-2 and MODIS/Terra radiometry data products such as the 16-day enhanced vegetation index, the 8-day sun reflectance, and the derived modified normalized difference water index. The measurements of physical properties were in good accordance with previous reports based on in situ gauge data, spectroradiometry and other optical methods, which encouraged us to build a predictive model based on reported geospatial constraints to assess the limits of potential variation of the snail habitat areas. The simulated results correspond fairly well with surveys conducted by local authorities showing a correlation coefficient of 0.82 between highpotential habitat areas and local estimates in a 9-year (2002-2010 analysis. Taken together, these data indicate that spaceborne observations and in situ measurements can be integrated and used as a first step of a monitoring system for control and analysis of the potential of schistosomiasis dissemination. Since the true range and intensity of transmission in the study region remain elusive at present, a long-term survey around the lake is warranted to build a robust, parametric model.
Models and strategies for electricity distribution companies in emerging economies
Zaragocin Espinosa, Leonardo Vicente
Unbundling and privatization have become key elements of restructuring in the Electric Power Industry of Emerging Economies. These processes have concentrated on the Generation and Transmission areas, leaving Distribution as lower priority. Based on a comparison between the old role of Distribution Companies (DISCOS) and its new potential role this study identifies the main issues and challenges that DISCOS will face in the new environment once structural and ownership changes are completed. For the specific case of DISCOS in Emerging Economies, regulatory policies are reviewed and strategies identified in order to facilitate the transition and to assist in the integration of DISCOS with other agents in the evolving electric power market. Of particular importance in this research is the analysis of the role of Energy Efficiency (EE) in the new structural and governance environment. A theoretical study of the effects of energy efficiency measures, specifically loss reduction, on price regulation is developed within a proposed regulatory regime of privatization together with Price-Cap Regulation. This theoretical benchmark is then used as a starting point for a case study, the Electric System of Ecuador, where an analysis of the current Ecuadorian price regulation scheme (the Distribution Value Added Charge, VAD, scheme) is presented and analyzed in detail. General recommendations for improving the application of the VAD pricing approach are advanced, with special reference to the current situation in Ecuador.
A Model of the Turbulent Electric Dynamo in Multi-Phase Media
Dementyeva, Svetlana; Mareev, Evgeny
2016-04-01
Many terrestrial and astrophysical phenomena witness the conversion of kinetic energy into electric energy (the energy of the quasi-stationary electric field) in conducting media, which is natural to treat as manifestations of electric dynamo by analogy with well-known theory of magnetic dynamo. Such phenomena include thunderstorms and lightning in the Earth's atmosphere and atmospheres of other planets, electric activity caused by dust storms in terrestrial and Martian atmospheres, snow storms, electrical discharges occurring in technological setups, connected with intense mixing of aerosol particles like in the milling industry. We have developed a model of the large-scale turbulent electric dynamo in a weakly conducting medium, containing two heavy-particle components. We have distinguished two main classes of charging mechanisms (inductive and non-inductive) in accordance with the dependence or independence of the electric charge, transferred during a particle collision, on the electric field intensity and considered the simplified models which demonstrate the possibility of dynamo realization and its specific peculiarities for these mechanisms. Dynamo (the large-scale electric field growth) appears due to the charge separation between the colliding and rebounding particles. This process is may be greatly intensified by the turbulent mixing of particles with different masses and, consequently, different inertia. The particle charge fluctuations themselves (small-scale dynamo), however, do not automatically mean growth of the large-scale electric field without a large-scale asymmetry. Such an asymmetry arises due to the dependence of the transferred charge magnitude on the electric field intensity in the case of the inductive mechanism of charge separation, or due to the gravity and convection for non-inductive mechanisms. We have found that in the case of the inductive mechanism the large-scale dynamo occurs if the medium conductivity is small enough while the
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fathi, F.; Moayedi, S. K.; Shafabakhsh, M.
2015-01-01
More than 80 years ago, Born-Infeld electrodynamics was proposed in order to remove the point charge singularity in Maxwell electrodynamics. In this work, after a brief introduction to Lagrangian formulation of Abelian Born-Infeld model in the presence of an external source, we obtain the explicit forms of Gauss’s law and the energy density of an electrostatic field for Born-Infeld electrostatics. The electric field and the stored electrostatic energy per unit length for an infinite charged line and an infinitely long cylinder in Born-Infeld electrostatics are calculated. Numerical estimations in this paper show that the nonlinear corrections to Maxwell electrodynamics are considerable only for strong electric fields. We present an action functional for Abelian Born-Infeld model with an auxiliary scalar field in the presence of an external source. This action functional is a generalization of the action functional which was presented by Tseytlin in his studies on low energy dynamics of D-branes (Nucl. Phys. B469, 51 (1996); Int. J. Mod. Phys. A 19, 3427 (2004)). Finally, we derive the symmetric energy-momentum tensor for Abelian Born-Infeld model with an auxiliary scalar field
Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts
2011-04-18
This podcast discusses emerging vector-borne pathogens, their role as prominent contributors to emerging infectious diseases, how they're spread, and the ineffectiveness of mosquito control methods. Created: 4/18/2011 by National Center for Emerging Zoonotic and Infectious Diseases (NCEZID). Date Released: 4/27/2011.
Bratton, Robert L; Corey, Ralph
2005-06-15
Tick-borne diseases in the United States include Rocky Mountain spotted fever, Lyme disease, ehrlichiosis, tularemia, babesiosis, Colorado tick fever, and relapsing fever. It is important for family physicians to consider these illnesses when patients present with influenza-like symptoms. A petechial rash initially affecting the palms and soles of the feet is associated with Rocky Mountain spotted fever, whereas erythema migrans (annular macule with central clearing) is associated with Lyme disease. Various other rashes or skin lesions accompanied by fever and influenza-like illness also may signal the presence of a tick-borne disease. Early, accurate diagnosis allows treatment that may help prevent significant morbidity and possible mortality. Because 24 to 48 hours of attachment to the host are required for infection to occur, early removal can help prevent disease. Treatment with doxycycline or tetracycline is indicated for Rocky Mountain spotted fever, Lyme disease, ehrlichiosis, and relapsing fever. In patients with clinical findings suggestive of tick-borne disease, treatment should not be delayed for laboratory confirmation. If no symptoms follow exposure to tick bites, empiric treatment is not indicated. The same tick may harbor different infectious pathogens and transmit several with one bite. Advising patients about prevention of tick bites, especially in the summer months, may help prevent exposure to dangerous vector-borne diseases.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Oei, Pao-Yu Charly Robin
2016-03-03
This dissertation uses three models to analyze different decarbonization strategies for combating global climate change: The cost minimizing mixed-integer model CCTS-Mod examines the economics of Carbon Capture, Transport, and Storage (CCTS) for the electricity and industry sector; the welfare maximizing quadratically constrained model ELMOD focuses on different trajectories for renewable energy sources (RES) and transmission grid expansions; and the equilibrium model ELCO combines the insights of the individual sectors to a combined CCTS and electricity investment and dispatch model. Modeling results show that an investment in CCTS is beneficial for the iron and steel sector once the CO{sub 2} certificate price exceeds 50 Euros/t CO{sub 2}. The threshold is 75 Euros/t CO{sub 2} for the cement industry and 100 Euros/t CO{sub 2} for the electricity sector. Additional revenues from using CO{sub 2} for enhanced oil recovery (CO{sub 2}-EOR) lead to an earlier adoption of CCTS in the North Sea region. The lack of economies of scale results in increasing CO{sub 2} storage costs of more than 30%, while transport costs even double. Research from the last years, however, indicates that CCTS is unlikely to play an important role in decarbonizing the electricity sector. The identified reasons for this are incumbents' resistance to structural change, wrong technology choices, over-optimistic cost estimates, a premature focus on energy projects instead of industry, and the underestimation of transport and storage issues. Keeping global temperature rise below 2 C therefore implies the phase-out of fossilfueled power plants and, in particular, of CO{sub 2}-intensive coal power plants. The low CO{sub 2} price established by the European Emissions Trading Scheme is insufficient to induce a fuel switch in the medium term. Therefore, supplementary national measures are necessary to reduce coal-based power generation; i.a. feed-in tariffs for RES, minimum CO{sub 2} prices, or
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Herui Cui
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Short-term electric load is significantly affected by weather, especially the temperature effects in summer. External factors can result in mutation structures in load data. Under the influence of the external temperature factors, city electric load cannot be easily forecasted as usual. This research analyzes the relationship between electricity load and daily temperature in city. An improved ARIMAX model is proposed in this paper to deal with the mutation data structures. It is found that information amount of the improved ARIMAX model is smaller than that of the classic method and its relative error is less than AR, ARMA and Sigmoid-Function ANN models. The forecasting results are more accurately fitted. This improved model is highly valuable when dealing with mutation data structure in the field of load forecasting. And it is also an effective technique in forecasting electric load with temperature effects.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hong, W.-C.
2009-01-01
Accurate forecasting of electric load has always been the most important issues in the electricity industry, particularly for developing countries. Due to the various influences, electric load forecasting reveals highly nonlinear characteristics. Recently, support vector regression (SVR), with nonlinear mapping capabilities of forecasting, has been successfully employed to solve nonlinear regression and time series problems. However, it is still lack of systematic approaches to determine appropriate parameter combination for a SVR model. This investigation elucidates the feasibility of applying chaotic particle swarm optimization (CPSO) algorithm to choose the suitable parameter combination for a SVR model. The empirical results reveal that the proposed model outperforms the other two models applying other algorithms, genetic algorithm (GA) and simulated annealing algorithm (SA). Finally, it also provides the theoretical exploration of the electric load forecasting support system (ELFSS)
A deterministic model for the growth of non-conducting electrical tree structures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dodd, S J
2003-01-01
Electrical treeing is of interest to the electrical generation, transmission and distribution industries as it is one of the causes of insulation failure in electrical machines, switchgear and transformer bushings. In this paper a deterministic electrical tree growth model is described. The model is based on electrostatics and local electron avalanches to model partial discharge activity within the growing tree structure. Damage to the resin surrounding the tree structure is dependent on the local electrostatic energy dissipation by partial discharges within the tree structure and weighted by the magnitudes of the local electric fields in the resin surrounding the tree structure. The model is successful in simulating the formation of branched structures without the need of a random variable, a requirement of previous stochastic models. Instability in the spatial development of partial discharges within the tree structure takes the role of the stochastic element as used in previous models to produce branched tree structures. The simulated electrical trees conform to the experimentally observed behaviour; tree length versus time and electrical tree growth rate as a function of applied voltage for non-conducting electrical trees. The phase synchronous partial discharge activity and the spatial distribution of emitted light from the tree structure are also in agreement with experimental data for non-conducting trees as grown in a flexible epoxy resin and in polyethylene. The fact that similar tree growth behaviour is found using pure amorphous (epoxy resin) and semicrystalline (polyethylene) materials demonstrate that neither annealed or quenched noise, representing material inhomogeneity, is required for the formation of irregular branched structures (electrical trees). Instead, as shown in this paper, branched growth can occur due to the instability of individual discharges within the tree structure
Maire, Sophie
2016-01-01
Energy policy needs to rely on the proper understanding of the interactions between policy instruments, consumer preferences, investment behavior, market structure, electricity supply, and the wider policy environment. This asks for appropriate modeling tools, able to represent precisely electricity supply options, model all types of energy and climate policies, as well as the reactions of the rest of the economy. Chapter 2 describes the ELECTRA-CH framework, developed to analyze electrici...
Hybrid Electric Vehicle Experimental Model with CAN Network Real Time Control
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
RATOI, M.
2010-05-01
Full Text Available In this paper an experimental model with a distributed control system of a hybrid electrical vehicle is presented. A communication CAN network of high speed (1 Mbps assures a distributed control of the all components. The modeling and the control of different operating regimes are realized on an experimental test-bench of a hybrid electrical vehicle. The experimental results concerning the variations of the mains variables (currents, torques, speeds are presented.
Business Models for Solar Powered Charging Stations to Develop Infrastructure for Electric Vehicles
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jessica Robinson
2014-10-01
Full Text Available Electric power must become less dependent on fossil fuels and transportation must become more electric to decrease carbon emissions and mitigate climate change. Increasing availability and accessibility of charging stations is predicted to increase purchases of electric vehicles. In order to address the current inadequate charging infrastructure for electric vehicles, major entities must adopt business models for solar powered charging stations (SPCS. These SPCS should be located in parking lots to produce electricity for the grid and provide an integrated infrastructure for charging electric vehicles. Due to the lack of information related to SPCS business models, this manuscript designs several models for major entities including industry, the federal and state government, utilities, universities, and public parking. A literature review of the available relevant business models and case studies of constructed charging stations was completed to support the proposals. In addition, a survey of a university’s students, staff, and faculty was conducted to provide consumer research on people’s opinion of SPCS construction and preference of business model aspects. Results showed that 69% of respondents would be more willing to invest in an electric vehicle if there was sufficient charging station infrastructure at the university. Among many recommendations, the business models suggest installing level 1 charging for the majority of entities, and to match entities’ current pricing structures for station use. The manuscript discusses the impacts of fossil fuel use, and the benefits of electric car and SPCS use, accommodates for the present gap in available literature on SPCS business models, and provides current consumer data for SPCS and the models proposed.
Dynamic Modeling of Kosovo's Electricity Supply-Demand, Gaseous Emissions and Air Pollution
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sadik Bekteshi
2015-09-01
Full Text Available In this paper is described the developing of an integrated electricity supply–demand, gaseous emission and air pollution model for study of possible baseline electricity developments and available options to mitigate emissions. This model is constructed in STELLA software, which makes use of Systems Dynamics Modeling as the methodology. Several baseline scenarios have been developed from this model and a set of options of possible developments of Kosovo's Electricity Supply–Demand and Gaseous Emissions are investigated. The analysis of various scenarios results in medium growth scenarios (MGS that imply building of generation capacities and increase in participation of the electricity generation from renewable sources. MGS would be 10% of the total electricity generation and ensure sustainable development of the electricity sector. At the same time, by implementation of new technologies, this would be accompanied by reduced GHG (CO2 and NOx emissions by 60% and signiﬁcant reduction for air pollutants (dust and SO2 by 40% compared to the business-as-usual (BAU case. Conclusively, obtained results show that building of new generation capacities by introducing new technologies and orientation on environmentally friendly energy sources can ensure sustainable development of the electricity sector in Kosovo.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kenichi W Okamoto
Full Text Available Two basic strategies have been proposed for using transgenic Aedes aegypti mosquitoes to decrease dengue virus transmission: population reduction and population replacement. Here we model releases of a strain of Ae. aegypti carrying both a gene causing conditional adult female mortality and a gene blocking virus transmission into a wild population to assess whether such releases could reduce the number of competent vectors. We find this "reduce and replace" strategy can decrease the frequency of competent vectors below 50% two years after releases end. Therefore, this combined approach appears preferable to releasing a strain carrying only a female-killing gene, which is likely to merely result in temporary population suppression. However, the fixation of anti-pathogen genes in the population is unlikely. Genetic drift at small population sizes and the spatially heterogeneous nature of the population recovery after releases end prevent complete replacement of the competent vector population. Furthermore, releasing more individuals can be counter-productive in the face of immigration by wild-type mosquitoes, as greater population reduction amplifies the impact wild-type migrants have on the long-term frequency of the anti-pathogen gene. We expect the results presented here to give pause to expectations for driving an anti-pathogen construct to fixation by relying on releasing individuals carrying this two-gene construct. Nevertheless, in some dengue-endemic environments, a spatially heterogeneous decrease in competent vectors may still facilitate decreasing disease incidence.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dev, Priya; Martin, Michael A.
2014-01-01
Highlights: • Neural nets are unable to properly capture spiky price behavior found in the electricity market. • We modeled electricity price data from the Australian National Electricity Market over 15 years. • Neural nets need to be augmented with other modeling techniques to capture price spikes. • We fit a Generalized Pareto Distribution to price spikes using a peaks-over-thresholds approach. - Abstract: Competitors in the electricity supply industry desire accurate predictions of electricity spot prices to hedge against financial risks. Neural networks are commonly used for forecasting such prices, but certain features of spot price series, such as extreme price spikes, present critical challenges for such modeling. We investigate the predictive capacity of neural networks for electricity spot prices using Australian National Electricity Market data. Following neural net modeling of the data, we explore extreme price spikes through extreme value modeling, fitting a Generalized Pareto Distribution to price peaks over an estimated threshold. While neural nets capture the smoother aspects of spot price data, they are unable to capture local, volatile features that characterize electricity spot price data. Price spikes can be modeled successfully through extreme value modeling
A Self-identity Based Model of Electric Car Adoption Intention
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Barbarossa, Camilla; Beckmann, Suzanne C.; de Pelsmacker, Patrick
2015-01-01
This study proposes a self-identity based eco-friendly intention formation model to assess the effects of green self-identity, care for the environmental consequences of consumption, and green moral obligation, on the attitude toward and the intention to adopt electric cars. The model...... between the countries. Results show that the independent variables influence consumer attitude toward the adoption of electric cars, which, in turn, determines the intention to adopt them. Significant differences emerge concerning the influence of the antecedents of consumer attitude toward electric car...
Model of the electric energy market in Poland. Assumptions, structure and operation principles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kulagowski, W.
1994-01-01
Present state of works on model of electric energy market in Poland with special consideration of bulk energy market is presented. The designed model based on progressive, evolutionary changes is so elastic, that when keeping general structure and fundamentals the particular solutions can be verified or corrected. The changes in the electric energy market are considered as an integral part of existing restructuring process of Polish electric energy sector. The rate of those changes and the mode of their introduction influence on introduction speed of the new solutions. (author). 14 refs, 4 figs
SIMULATION MODELS OF HEAVY TRUCKS TRAFFIC CONTROL WITH ELECTRIC DC DRIVE
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
N. N. Hurski
2015-01-01
Full Text Available A model of the straight course of movement of the mobile machine with a traction electric motor DC. Traffic management controller provides a closed classical scheme with feedback. The mathematical model of the electric DC motor with the energy dissipation in the rotor bearings. Design scheme of mobile machines include speed dial controller, traction electric motor, gearbox, transmission and progressively moving mass on the elasticdissipative wheel. The results of the simulation of the machine in the form of temporary processes of change control signals, voltage and current in the windings of the motor and traction power developed on the wheel.
MDESRAP: a model for understanding the dynamics of electricity supply, resources and pollution
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Qudrat-Ullah, H.
2005-01-01
The inherent dynamic complexity of the energy policy design problem makes the conventional 'closed-form' solution impossible. This paper contributes a dynamic simulation model as a possible solution. The model captures the dynamics of underlying sectors of electricity demand, investment, capital, resource, production, environment and costs and pricing. The existing feedback loops, nonlinearity and time-lag characteristics present in the real world electricity systems are incorporated in the model. The model is calibrated to Pakistan's case data. How the model has been used in policy assessments and the design of the alternative energy policies subject to various environmental and resource constraints is also discussed. (author)
Field emission electric propulsion thruster modeling and simulation
Vanderwyst, Anton Sivaram
Electric propulsion allows space rockets a much greater range of capabilities with mass efficiencies that are 1.3 to 30 times greater than chemical propulsion. Field emission electric propulsion (FEEP) thrusters provide a specific design that possesses extremely high efficiency and small impulse bits. Depending on mass flow rate, these thrusters can emit both ions and droplets. To date, fundamental experimental work has been limited in FEEP. In particular, detailed individual droplet mechanics have yet to be understood. In this thesis, theoretical and computational investigations are conducted to examine the physical characteristics associated with droplet dynamics relevant to FEEP applications. Both asymptotic analysis and numerical simulations, based on a new approach combining level set and boundary element methods, were used to simulate 2D-planar and 2D-axisymmetric probability density functions of the droplets produced for a given geometry and electrode potential. The combined algorithm allows the simulation of electrostatically-driven liquids up to and after detachment. Second order accuracy in space is achieved using a volume of fluid correction. The simulations indicate that in general, (i) lowering surface tension, viscosity, and potential, or (ii) enlarging electrode rings, and needle tips reduce operational mass efficiency. Among these factors, surface tension and electrostatic potential have the largest impact. A probability density function for the mass to charge ratio (MTCR) of detached droplets is computed, with a peak around 4,000 atoms per electron. High impedance surfaces, strong electric fields, and large liquid surface tension result in a lower MTCR ratio, which governs FEEP droplet evolution via the charge on detached droplets and their corresponding acceleration. Due to the slow mass flow along a FEEP needle, viscosity is of less importance in altering the droplet velocities. The width of the needle, the composition of the propellant, the
Models of Marketing Strategies vs. Lotto and Schneider Electric
Nelbom, Mathies Raaskou; Giersing, Josephine; Olesen, Kåre
2016-01-01
This project has the ultimate goal of answering the research question, What are the 4 P’s of marketing mix and SWOT analysis, and how are they implemented within companies? To what extent does Lotto and Schneider Electric implement this these marketing tools? This project goes into depth with the 4P’s within marketing mix, product, promotion, place and price, as well as SWOT analysis. These method of marketing are then applied to the two companies that were interviewed, in order to see how th...
Mode of operation and performance of a simulation model for the electricity management
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Weible, H.
1981-01-01
In the first two main parts of this report the structure of a simulation model to define the consequences of decisions in the electricity supply sector is explained, based on a careful revision of relevant problems. By means of the system analysis the model represents an attempt to describe all essential relations between the electricity demand on the one hand and the consequences of the generation of electricity (indluding transport) for consumers, state, environment, market of capital and fuel on the other hand. The multifarious ways of operation and application of the model are demonstrated taking the public electricity management of Baden-Wuerttemberg as an example. Besides a validation of the model for 1970 to 1977, possible trends until the year 2000 are shown. As an essential result of the analyses it can be shown, that a renunciation on the further extension of nuclear energy turns out to be unrealistic by a supposed average increase of the electricity demand of 4% p.a.. A comparison of different model conceptions shows, that the information loss, which proceeds from the approximation of year-load-curves, leads to important deviations in the model results. According to the sensitivity analyses the increase of the electricity consumption turns out to be the most essential influence on the time dependent results. (orig./UA) [de
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Paul, Anthony; Palmer, Karen; Woerman, Matt
2013-01-01
The electricity sector is responsible for roughly 40% of U.S. carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, and a reduction in CO 2 emissions from electricity generation is an important component of the U.S. strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Toward that goal, several proposals for a clean energy standard (CES) have been put forth, including one espoused by the Obama administration that calls for 80% clean electricity by 2035 phased in from current levels of roughly 40%. This paper looks at the effects of such a policy on CO 2 emissions from the electricity sector, the mix of technologies used to supply electricity, electricity prices, and regional flows of clean energy credits. The CES leads to a 30% reduction in cumulative CO 2 emissions between 2013 and 2035 and results in dramatic reductions in generation from conventional coal. The policy also results in fairly modest increases on national electricity prices, but this masks a wide variety of effects across regions. - Highlights: ► We model a clean energy standard (CES) for electricity at 80% by 2035. ► We analyze effects on CO 2 emissions, investment, prices, and credit trading. ► 80% CES leads to 30% reduction in cumulative CO 2 emissions by 2035. ► Modest national average electricity price increase masks regional heterogeneity
Esscher, Annika; Binder-Finnema, Pauline; Bødker, Birgit; Högberg, Ulf; Mulic-Lutvica, Ajlana; Essén, Birgitta
2014-04-12
Several European countries report differences in risk of maternal mortality between immigrants from low- and middle-income countries and host country women. The present study identified suboptimal factors related to care-seeking, accessibility, and quality of care for maternal deaths that occurred in Sweden from 1988-2010. A subset of maternal death records (n = 75) among foreign-born women from low- and middle-income countries and Swedish-born women were audited using structured implicit review. One case of foreign-born maternal death was matched with two native born Swedish cases of maternal death. An assessment protocol was developed that applied both the 'migration three delays' framework and a modified version of the Confidential Enquiry from the United Kingdom. The main outcomes were major and minor suboptimal factors associated with maternal death in this high-income, low-maternal mortality context. Major and minor suboptimal factors were associated with a majority of maternal deaths and significantly more often to foreign-born women (p = 0.01). The main delays to care-seeking were non-compliance among foreign-born women and communication barriers, such as incongruent language and suboptimal interpreter system or usage. Inadequate care occurred more often among the foreign-born (p = 0.04), whereas delays in consultation/referral and miscommunication between health care providers where equally common between the two groups. Suboptimal care factors, major and minor, were present in more than 2/3 of maternal deaths in this high-income setting. Those related to migration were associated to miscommunication, lack of professional interpreters, and limited knowledge about rare diseases and pregnancy complications. Increased insight into a migration perspective is advocated for maternity clinicians who provide care to foreign-born women.
A sequential Monte Carlo model of the combined GB gas and electricity network
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chaudry, Modassar; Wu, Jianzhong; Jenkins, Nick
2013-01-01
A Monte Carlo model of the combined GB gas and electricity network was developed to determine the reliability of the energy infrastructure. The model integrates the gas and electricity network into a single sequential Monte Carlo simulation. The model minimises the combined costs of the gas and electricity network, these include gas supplies, gas storage operation and electricity generation. The Monte Carlo model calculates reliability indices such as loss of load probability and expected energy unserved for the combined gas and electricity network. The intention of this tool is to facilitate reliability analysis of integrated energy systems. Applications of this tool are demonstrated through a case study that quantifies the impact on the reliability of the GB gas and electricity network given uncertainties such as wind variability, gas supply availability and outages to energy infrastructure assets. Analysis is performed over a typical midwinter week on a hypothesised GB gas and electricity network in 2020 that meets European renewable energy targets. The efficacy of doubling GB gas storage capacity on the reliability of the energy system is assessed. The results highlight the value of greater gas storage facilities in enhancing the reliability of the GB energy system given various energy uncertainties. -- Highlights: •A Monte Carlo model of the combined GB gas and electricity network was developed. •Reliability indices are calculated for the combined GB gas and electricity system. •The efficacy of doubling GB gas storage capacity on reliability of the energy system is assessed. •Integrated reliability indices could be used to assess the impact of investment in energy assets
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Santos, Gabriel; Pinto, Tiago; Morais, Hugo; Sousa, Tiago M.; Pereira, Ivo F.; Fernandes, Ricardo; Praça, Isabel; Vale, Zita
2015-01-01
Highlights: • Definition of an ontology allowing the communication between multi-agents systems. • Social welfare evaluation in different electricity markets. • Demonstration of the use of the proposed ontology between two multi-agents systems. • Strategic biding in electricity markets. • European electricity markets comparison. - Abstract: The electricity market restructuring, and its worldwide evolution into regional and even continental scales, along with the increasing necessity for an adequate integration of renewable energy sources, is resulting in a rising complexity in power systems operation. Several power system simulators have been developed in recent years with the purpose of helping operators, regulators, and involved players to understand and deal with this complex and constantly changing environment. The main contribution of this paper is given by the integration of several electricity market and power system models, respecting to the reality of different countries. This integration is done through the development of an upper ontology which integrates the essential concepts necessary to interpret all the available information. The continuous development of Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets platform provides the means for the exemplification of the usefulness of this ontology. A case study using the proposed multi-agent platform is presented, considering a scenario based on real data that simulates the European Electricity Market environment, and comparing its performance using different market mechanisms. The main goal is to demonstrate the advantages that the integration of various market models and simulation platforms have for the study of the electricity markets’ evolution
Zainudin, WNRA; Ramli, NA
2017-09-01
In 2016, Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) had introduced an upgrade in its Billing and Customer Relationship Management (BCRM) as part of its long-term initiative to provide its customers with greater access to billing information. This includes information on real and suggested power consumption by the customers and further details in their billing charges. This information is useful to help TNB customers to gain better understanding on their electricity usage patterns and items involved in their billing charges. Up to date, there are not many studies done to measure public understanding on current electricity bills and whether this understanding could contribute towards positive impacts. The purpose of this paper is to measure public understanding on current TNB electricity bills and whether their satisfaction towards energy-related services, electricity utility services, and their awareness on the amount of electricity consumed by various appliances and equipment in their home could improve this understanding on the electricity bills. Both qualitative and quantitative research methods are used to achieve these objectives. A total of 160 respondents from local universities in Malaysia participated in a survey used to collect relevant information. Using Ordered Probit model, this paper finds respondents that are highly satisfied with the electricity utility services tend to understand their electricity bills better. The electric utility services include management of electricity bills and the information obtained from utility or non-utility supplier to help consumers manage their energy usage or bills. Based on the results, this paper concludes that the probability to understand the components in the monthly electricity bill increases as respondents are more satisfied with their electric utility services and are more capable to value the energy-related services.
Modelling the impact of EVs on electricity generation, costs and CO2 emissions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Calnan, P.; Deane, J.P.; Ó Gallachóir, B.P.
2013-01-01
This paper focuses on the impact of electric vehicles on electricity generation in Ireland in 2025 based on five alternative generation portfolios. The year 2025 was selected for assessment due to the information on the composition of the five generation portfolios from Eirgrid the system operator in Ireland being provided. Detailed market simulations were undertaken on the five possible generation portfolios to assess the impact of the Government targets for electric vehicles on the generation costs, emissions, generation stack and the cost to load of this additional demand. This paper also studied the impact between a standard and least cost electric vehicle loading regime to ascertain the benefits that could be achieved. The results show that gas will be the dominant source of electricity generation to load electric vehicles and that wind as an electricity source will experience a minor reduction in curtailment, with the least cost charging profile showing a more pronounced reduction. The capital benefits of the Standard and Least Cost EV load are found to be negligible. The portfolios studied generated CO 2 emissions per kilometre between 52 and 70 gCO 2 /km. All portfolios with the exception of coal were found to comply with EU regulation 443/2009. - Highlights: • This paper focuses on the impact of electric vehicles on electricity generation in Ireland in 2025. • It uses the PLEXOS software package by Energy Exemplar to model the Irish electricity market. • Government targets for electric vehicle penetration have a limited impact on the power system. • Electric vehicles will meet EU requirements in terms of emissions created per kilometre
Matsypura, Dmytro
In this dissertation, I develop a new theoretical framework for the modeling, pricing analysis, and computation of solutions to electric power supply chains with power generators, suppliers, transmission service providers, and the inclusion of consumer demands. In particular, I advocate the application of finite-dimensional variational inequality theory, projected dynamical systems theory, game theory, network theory, and other tools that have been recently proposed for the modeling and analysis of supply chain networks (cf. Nagurney (2006)) to electric power markets. This dissertation contributes to the extant literature on the modeling, analysis, and solution of supply chain networks, including global supply chains, in general, and electric power supply chains, in particular, in the following ways. It develops a theoretical framework for modeling, pricing analysis, and computation of electric power flows/transactions in electric power systems using the rationale for supply chain analysis. The models developed include both static and dynamic ones. The dissertation also adds a new dimension to the methodology of the theory of projected dynamical systems by proving that, irrespective of the speeds of adjustment, the equilibrium of the system remains the same. Finally, I include alternative fuel suppliers, along with their behavior into the supply chain modeling and analysis framework. This dissertation has strong practical implications. In an era in which technology and globalization, coupled with increasing risk and uncertainty, complicate electricity demand and supply within and between nations, the successful management of electric power systems and pricing become increasingly pressing topics with relevance not only for economic prosperity but also national security. This dissertation addresses such related topics by providing models, pricing tools, and algorithms for decentralized electric power supply chains. This dissertation is based heavily on the following
Quantifying Co-benefits of Renewable Energy through Integrated Electricity and Air Quality Modeling
Abel, D.
2016-12-01
This work focuses on the coordination of electricity sector changes with air quality and health improvement strategies through the integration of electricity and air quality models. Two energy models are used to calculate emission perturbations associated with changes in generation technology (20% generation from solar photovoltaics) and demand (future electricity use under a warmer climate). Impacts from increased solar PV penetration are simulated with the electricity model GridView, in collaboration with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Generation results are used to scale power plant emissions from an inventory developed by the Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium (LADCO). Perturbed emissions and are used to calculate secondary particulate matter with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. We find that electricity NOx and SO2 emissions decrease at a rate similar to the total fraction of electricity supplied by solar. Across the Eastern U.S. region, average PM2.5 is reduced 5% over the summer, with highest reduction in regions and on days of greater PM2.5. A similar approach evaluates the air quality impacts of elevated electricity demand under a warmer climate. Meteorology is selected from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) and input to a building energy model, eQUEST, to assess electricity demand as a function of ambient temperature. The associated generation and emissions are calculated on a plant-by-plant basis by the MyPower power sector model. These emissions are referenced to the 2011 National Emissions Inventory to be modeled in CMAQ for the Eastern U.S. and extended to health impact evaluation with the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP). All results focus on the air quality and health consequences of energy system changes, considering grid-level changes to meet climate and air quality goals.
Omony, Jimmy; de Jong, Anne; Krawczyk, Antonina O; Eijlander, Robyn T; Kuipers, Oscar P
2018-02-09
Sporulation is a survival strategy, adapted by bacterial cells in response to harsh environmental adversities. The adaptation potential differs between strains and the variations may arise from differences in gene regulation. Gene networks are a valuable way of studying such regulation processes and establishing associations between genes. We reconstructed and compared sporulation gene co-expression networks (GCNs) of the model laboratory strain Bacillus subtilis 168 and the food-borne industrial isolate Bacillus amyloliquefaciens. Transcriptome data obtained from samples of six stages during the sporulation process were used for network inference. Subsequently, a gene set enrichment analysis was performed to compare the reconstructed GCNs of B. subtilis 168 and B. amyloliquefaciens with respect to biological functions, which showed the enriched modules with coherent functional groups associated with sporulation. On basis of the GCNs and time-evolution of differentially expressed genes, we could identify novel candidate genes strongly associated with sporulation in B. subtilis 168 and B. amyloliquefaciens. The GCNs offer a framework for exploring transcription factors, their targets, and co-expressed genes during sporulation. Furthermore, the methodology described here can conveniently be applied to other species or biological processes.
A nonlinear approach to modelling the residential electricity consumption in Ethiopia
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gabreyohannes, Emmanuel
2010-01-01
In this paper an attempt is made to model, analyze and forecast the residential electricity consumption in Ethiopia using the self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model and the smooth transition regression (STR) model. For comparison purposes, the application was also extended to standard linear models. During the empirical presentation of both models, significant nonlinear effects were found and linearity was rejected. The SETAR model was found out to be relatively better than the linear autoregressive model in out-of-sample point and interval (density) forecasts. Results from our STR model showed that the residual variance of the fitted STR model was only about 65.7% of that of the linear ARX model. Thus, we can conclude that the inclusion of the nonlinear part, which basically accounts for the arrival of extreme price events, leads to improvements in the explanatory abilities of the model for electricity consumption in Ethiopia. (author)
A nonlinear approach to modelling the residential electricity consumption in Ethiopia
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gabreyohannes, Emmanuel [Ethiopian Civil Service College, P.O.Box 5648, Addis Ababa (Ethiopia)
2010-05-15
In this paper an attempt is made to model, analyze and forecast the residential electricity consumption in Ethiopia using the self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model and the smooth transition regression (STR) model. For comparison purposes, the application was also extended to standard linear models. During the empirical presentation of both models, significant nonlinear effects were found and linearity was rejected. The SETAR model was found out to be relatively better than the linear autoregressive model in out-of-sample point and interval (density) forecasts. Results from our STR model showed that the residual variance of the fitted STR model was only about 65.7% of that of the linear ARX model. Thus, we can conclude that the inclusion of the nonlinear part, which basically accounts for the arrival of extreme price events, leads to improvements in the explanatory abilities of the model for electricity consumption in Ethiopia. (author)
Optimization models and techniques for implementation and pricing of electricity markets
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Madrigal Martinez, M.
2001-01-01
The operation and planning of vertically integrated electric power systems can be optimized using models that simulate solutions to problems. As the electric power industry is going through a period of restructuring, there is a need for new optimization tools. This thesis describes the importance of optimization tools and presents techniques for implementing them. It also presents methods for pricing primary electricity markets. Three modeling groups are studied. The first considers a simplified continuous and discrete model for power pool auctions. The second considers the unit commitment problem, and the third makes use of a new type of linear network-constrained clearing system model for daily markets for power and spinning reserve. The newly proposed model considers bids for supply and demand and bilateral contracts. It is a direct current model for the transmission network
Explaining electric conductivity using the particle-in-a-box model: quantum superposition is the key
Sivanesan, Umaseh; Tsang, Kin; Izmaylov, Artur F.
2017-12-01
Most of the textbooks explaining electric conductivity in the context of quantum mechanics provide either incomplete or semi-classical explanations that are not connected with the elementary concepts of quantum mechanics. We illustrate the conduction phenomena using the simplest model system in quantum dynamics, a particle in a box (PIB). To induce the particle dynamics, a linear potential tilting the bottom of the box is introduced, which is equivalent to imposing a constant electric field for a charged particle. Although the PIB model represents a closed system that cannot have a flow of electrons through the system, we consider the oscillatory dynamics of the particle probability density as the analogue of the electric current. Relating the amplitude and other parameters of the particle oscillatory dynamics with the gap between the ground and excited states of the PIB model allows us to demonstrate one of the most basic dependencies of electric conductivity on the valence-conduction band gap of the material.
Utilization of the ICARUS model by the electricity authority of Cyprus and its limitations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stephanou, A.
1997-01-01
This report describes the principal uses of the ICARUS model at the Electricity Authority of Cyprus (EAC). The problems encountered in the application of the model at EAC are highlighted, together with some suggestions for future improvements of this model. (author)
Lise, W.; Linderhof, V.G.M.; Kuik, O.; Kemfert, C.; Ostling, R.; Heinzow, T.
2006-01-01
This paper develops a static computational game theoretic model. Illustrative results for the liberalising European electricity market are given to demonstrate the type of economic and environmental results that can be generated with the model. The model is empirically calibrated to eight
Dynamic Model of a Wind Turbine for the Electric Energy Generation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
José de Jesús Rubio
2014-01-01
Full Text Available A novel dynamic model is introduced for the modeling of the wind turbine behavior. The objective of the wind turbine is the electric energy generation. The analytic model has the characteristic that considers a rotatory tower. Experiments show the validity of the proposed method.
Model to Test Electric Field Comparisons in a Composite Fairing Cavity
Trout, Dawn H.; Burford, Janessa
2013-01-01
Evaluating the impact of radio frequency transmission in vehicle fairings is important to sensitive spacecraft. This study shows cumulative distribution function (CDF) comparisons of composite a fairing electromagnetic field data obtained by computational electromagnetic 3D full wave modeling and laboratory testing. This work is an extension of the bare aluminum fairing perfect electric conductor (PEC) model. Test and model data correlation is shown.
Utilization of the ICARUS model by the electricity authority of Cyprus and its limitations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Stephanou, A [Electricity Authority of Cyprus, Nicosia (Cyprus)
1997-09-01
This report describes the principal uses of the ICARUS model at the Electricity Authority of Cyprus (EAC). The problems encountered in the application of the model at EAC are highlighted, together with some suggestions for future improvements of this model. (author).
Upton, J; Murphy, M; Shalloo, L; Groot Koerkamp, P W G; De Boer, I J M
2014-01-01
Our objective was to define and demonstrate a mechanistic model that enables dairy farmers to explore the impact of a technical or managerial innovation on electricity consumption, associated CO2 emissions, and electricity costs. We, therefore, (1) defined a model for electricity consumption on dairy farms (MECD) capable of simulating total electricity consumption along with related CO2 emissions and electricity costs on dairy farms on a monthly basis; (2) validated the MECD using empirical data of 1yr on commercial spring calving, grass-based dairy farms with 45, 88, and 195 milking cows; and (3) demonstrated the functionality of the model by applying 2 electricity tariffs to the electricity consumption data and examining the effect on total dairy farm electricity costs. The MECD was developed using a mechanistic modeling approach and required the key inputs of milk production, cow number, and details relating to the milk-cooling system, milking machine system, water-heating system, lighting systems, water pump systems, and the winter housing facilities as well as details relating to the management of the farm (e.g., season of calving). Model validation showed an overall relative prediction error (RPE) of less than 10% for total electricity consumption. More than 87% of the mean square prediction error of total electricity consumption was accounted for by random variation. The RPE values of the milk-cooling systems, water-heating systems, and milking machine systems were less than 20%. The RPE values for automatic scraper systems, lighting systems, and water pump systems varied from 18 to 113%, indicating a poor prediction for these metrics. However, automatic scrapers, lighting, and water pumps made up only 14% of total electricity consumption across all farms, reducing the overall impact of these poor predictions. Demonstration of the model showed that total farm electricity costs increased by between 29 and 38% by moving from a day and night tariff to a flat
A generalized exponential time series regression model for electricity prices
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Haldrup, Niels; Knapik, Oskar; Proietti, Tomasso
on the estimated model, the best linear predictor is constructed. Our modeling approach provides good fit within sample and outperforms competing benchmark predictors in terms of forecasting accuracy. We also find that building separate models for each hour of the day and averaging the forecasts is a better...
Spot markets vs. long-term contracts - modelling tools for regional electricity generating utilities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Grohnheit, P.E.
1999-01-01
A properly organised market for electricity requires that some information will be available for all market participants. Also a range of generally available modelling tools are necessary. This paper describes a set of simple models based on published data for analyses of the long-term revenues of regional utilities with combined heat and power generation (CHP), who will operate a competitive international electricity market and a local heat market. The future revenues from trade on the spot market is analysed using a load curve model, in which marginal costs are calculated on the basis of short-term costs of the available units and chronological hourly variations in the demands for electricity and heat. Assumptions on prices, marginal costs and electricity generation by the different types of generating units are studied for selected types of local electricity generators. The long-term revenue requirements to be met by long-term contracts are analysed using a traditional techno-economic optimisation model focusing on technology choice and competition among technologies over 20.30 years. A possible conclusion from this discussion is that it is important for the economic and environmental efficiency of the electricity market that local or regional generators of CHP, who are able to react on price signals, do not conclude long-term contracts that include fixed time-of-day tariff for sale of electricity. Optimisation results for a CHP region (represented by the structure of the Danish electricity and CHP market in 1995) also indicates that a market for CO 2 tradable permits is unlikely to attract major non-fossil fuel technologies for electricity generation, e.g. wind power. (au)
Sammoura, Firas; Kim, Sang-Gook
2012-05-01
An electric circuit model for a circular bimorph piezoelectric micromachined ultrasonic transducer (PMUT) was developed for the first time. The model was made up of an electric mesh, which was coupled to a mechanical mesh via a transformer element. The bimorph PMUT consisted of two piezoelectric layers of the same material, having equal thicknesses, and sandwiched between three thin electrodes. The piezoelectric layers, having the same poling axis, were biased with electric potentials of the same magnitude but opposite polarity. The strain mismatches between the two layers created by the converse piezoelectric effect caused the membrane to vibrate and, hence, transmit a pressure wave. Upon receiving the echo of the acoustic wave, the membrane deformation led to the generation of electric charges as a result of the direct piezoelectric phenomenon. The membrane angular velocity and electric current were related to the applied electric field, the impinging acoustic pressure, and the moment at the edge of the membrane using two canonical equations. The transduction coefficients from the electrical to the mechanical domain and vice-versa were shown to be bilateral and the system was shown to be reversible. The circuit parameters of the derived model were extracted, including the transformer ratio, the clamped electric impedance, the spring-softening impedance, and the open-circuit mechanical impedance. The theoretical model was fully examined by generating the electrical input impedance and average plate displacement curves versus frequency under both air and water loading conditions. A PMUT composed of piezoelectric material with a lossy dielectric was also investigated and the maximum possible electroacoustical conversion efficiency was calculated.
High-resolution stochastic integrated thermal–electrical domestic demand model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
McKenna, Eoghan; Thomson, Murray
2016-01-01
Highlights: • A major new version of CREST’s demand model is presented. • Simulates electrical and thermal domestic demands at high-resolution. • Integrated structure captures appropriate time-coincidence of variables. • Suitable for low-voltage network and urban energy analyses. • Open-source development in Excel VBA freely available for download. - Abstract: This paper describes the extension of CREST’s existing electrical domestic demand model into an integrated thermal–electrical demand model. The principle novelty of the model is its integrated structure such that the timing of thermal and electrical output variables are appropriately correlated. The model has been developed primarily for low-voltage network analysis and the model’s ability to account for demand diversity is of critical importance for this application. The model, however, can also serve as a basis for modelling domestic energy demands within the broader field of urban energy systems analysis. The new model includes the previously published components associated with electrical demand and generation (appliances, lighting, and photovoltaics) and integrates these with an updated occupancy model, a solar thermal collector model, and new thermal models including a low-order building thermal model, domestic hot water consumption, thermostat and timer controls and gas boilers. The paper reviews the state-of-the-art in high-resolution domestic demand modelling, describes the model, and compares its output with three independent validation datasets. The integrated model remains an open-source development in Excel VBA and is freely available to download for users to configure and extend, or to incorporate into other models.