Complementary Cognitive Capabilities, Economic Decision-Making, and Aging

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ye; Baldassi, Martine; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

2014-01-01

Fluid intelligence decreases with age, yet evidence about age declines in decision-making quality is mixed: Depending on the study, older adults make worse, equally good, or even better decisions than younger adults. We propose a potential explanation for this puzzle, namely that age differences in decision performance result from the interplay between two sets of cognitive capabilities that impact decision making, one in which older adults fare worse (i.e., fluid intelligence) and one in which they fare better (i.e., crystallized intelligence). Specifically, we hypothesized that older adults’ higher levels of crystallized intelligence can provide an alternate pathway to good decisions when the fluid intelligence pathway declines. The performance of older adults relative to younger adults therefore depends on the relative importance of each type of intelligence for the decision at hand. We tested this complementary capabilities hypothesis in a broad sample of younger and older adults, collecting a battery of standard cognitive measures and measures of economically important decision-making “traits”—including temporal discounting, loss aversion, financial literacy, and debt literacy. We found that older participants performed as well as or better than younger participants on these four decision-making measures. Structural equation modeling verified our hypothesis: Older participants’ greater crystallized intelligence offset their lower levels of fluid intelligence for temporal discounting, financial literacy, and debt literacy, but not for loss aversion. These results have important implications for public policy and for the design of effective decision environments for older adults. PMID:24040999

Using fuzzy mathematics for decision making in economics

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Pavkov Ivan

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Traditionally, economic models are based on classical mathematics and Aristotelian two-valued logic. Nevertheless, fuzzy mathematics, as a tool for modeling some types of uncertainties and incomplete phenomena, is a more appropriate framework for modeling in economics. New approach has resulted in approximate reasoning and fuzzy control systems, which proved to be an efficient tool for decision making in fuzzy environment.

The Neural Basis of Economic Decision-Making in the Ultimatum Game

Science.gov (United States)

Sanfey, Alan G.; Rilling, James K.; Aronson, Jessica A.; Nystrom, Leigh E.; Cohen, Jonathan D.

2003-06-01

The nascent field of neuroeconomics seeks to ground economic decision- making in the biological substrate of the brain. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging of Ultimatum Game players to investigate neural substrates of cognitive and emotional processes involved in economic decision-making. In this game, two players split a sum of money; one player proposes a division and the other can accept or reject this. We scanned players as they responded to fair and unfair proposals. Unfair offers elicited activity in brain areas related to both emotion (anterior insula) and cognition (dorsolateral prefrontal cortex). Further, significantly heightened activity in anterior insula for rejected unfair offers suggests an important role for emotions in decision-making.

Exploring the Options: Teaching Economic Decision-Making with Poetry

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Theresa L.

2012-01-01

High-stakes standardized tests in reading and limited instructional time are two powerful disincentives for teaching economics in the elementary classroom. In this article, integrating instruction in poetry and economic decision-making is presented as one way to maximize the use of scarce instructional time. Following a brief introduction to the…

Decision-Making Under Risk: Integrating Perspectives From Biology, Economics, and Psychology.

Science.gov (United States)

Mishra, Sandeep

2014-08-01

Decision-making under risk has been variably characterized and examined in many different disciplines. However, interdisciplinary integration has not been forthcoming. Classic theories of decision-making have not been amply revised in light of greater empirical data on actual patterns of decision-making behavior. Furthermore, the meta-theoretical framework of evolution by natural selection has been largely ignored in theories of decision-making under risk in the human behavioral sciences. In this review, I critically examine four of the most influential theories of decision-making from economics, psychology, and biology: expected utility theory, prospect theory, risk-sensitivity theory, and heuristic approaches. I focus especially on risk-sensitivity theory, which offers a framework for understanding decision-making under risk that explicitly involves evolutionary considerations. I also review robust empirical evidence for individual differences and environmental/situational factors that predict actual risky decision-making that any general theory must account for. Finally, I offer steps toward integrating various theoretical perspectives and empirical findings on risky decision-making. © 2014 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

About Problems of Decision Making in Social and Economic Systems

OpenAIRE

Voloshyn, Oleksiy

2006-01-01

The reasons of a restricted applicability of the models of decision making in social and economic systems. 3 basic principles of growth of their adequacy are proposed: "localization" of solutions, direct account of influencing of the individual on process of decision making ("subjectivity of objectivity") and reduction of influencing of the individual psychosomatic characteristics of the subject (" objectivity of subjectivity ") are offered. The principles are illustrated on mathe...

Cognitive control and individual differences in economic ultimatum decision-making.

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Wim De Neys

Full Text Available Much publicity has been given to the fact that people's economic decisions often deviate from the rational predictions of standard economic models. In the classic ultimatum game, for example, most people turn down financial gains by rejecting unequal monetary splits. The present study points to neglected individual differences in this debate. After participants played the ultimatum game we tested for individual differences in cognitive control capacity of the most and least economic responders. The key finding was that people who were higher in cognitive control, as measured by behavioral (Go/No-Go performance and neural (No-Go N2 amplitude markers, did tend to behave more in line with the standard models and showed increased acceptance of unequal splits. Hence, the cognitively highest scoring decision-makers were more likely to maximize their monetary payoffs and adhere to the standard economic predictions. Findings question popular claims with respect to the rejection of standard economic models and the irrationality of human economic decision-making.

The use of economic evaluations in NHS decision-making: a review and empirical investigation.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, I; McIver, S; Moore, D; Bryan, S

2008-04-01

To determine the extent to which health economic information is used in health policy decision-making in the UK, and to consider factors associated with the utilisation of such research findings. Major electronic databases were searched up to 2004. A systematic review of existing reviews on the use of economic evaluations in policy decision-making, of health and non-health literature on the use of economic analyses in policy making and of studies identifying actual or perceived barriers to the use of economic evaluations was undertaken. Five UK case studies of committees from four local and one national organisation [the Technology Appraisal Committee of the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE)] were conducted. Local case studies were augmented by documentary analysis of new technology request forms and by workshop discussions with members of local decision-making committees. The systematic review demonstrated few previous systematic reviews of evidence in the area. At the local level in the NHS, it was an exception for economic evaluation to inform technology coverage decisions. Local decision-making focused primarily on evidence of clinical benefit and cost implications. And whilst information on implementation was frequently requested, cost-effectiveness information was rarely accessed. A number of features of the decision-making environment appeared to militate against emphasis on cost-effectiveness analysis. Constraints on the capacity to generate, access and interpret information, led to a minor role for cost-effectiveness analysis in the local decision-making process. At the national policy level in the UK, economic analysis was found to be highly integrated into NICE's technology appraisal programme. Attitudes to economic evaluation varied between committee members with some significant disagreement and extraneous factors diluted the health economics analysis available to the committee. There was strong evidence of an ordinal

Economic decision-making compared with an equivalent motor task.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Shih-Wei; Delgado, Mauricio R; Maloney, Laurence T

2009-04-14

There is considerable evidence that human economic decision-making deviates from the predictions of expected utility theory (EUT) and that human performance conforms to EUT in many perceptual and motor decision tasks. It is possible that these results reflect a real difference in decision-making in the 2 domains but it is also possible that the observed discrepancy simply reflects typical differences in experimental design. We developed a motor task that is mathematically equivalent to choosing between lotteries and used it to compare how the same subject chose between classical economic lotteries and the same lotteries presented in equivalent motor form. In experiment 1, we found that subjects are more risk seeking in deciding between motor lotteries. In experiment 2, we used cumulative prospect theory to model choice and separately estimated the probability weighting functions and the value functions for each subject carrying out each task. We found no patterned differences in how subjects represented outcome value in the motor and the classical tasks. However, the probability weighting functions for motor and classical tasks were markedly and significantly different. Those for the classical task showed a typical tendency to overweight small probabilities and underweight large probabilities, and those for the motor task showed the opposite pattern of probability distortion. This outcome also accounts for the increased risk-seeking observed in the motor tasks of experiment 1. We conclude that the same subject distorts probability, but not value, differently in making identical decisions in motor and classical form.

Health economics and outcomes methods in risk-based decision-making for blood safety

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Custer, Brian; Janssen, Mart P.

2015-01-01

Analytical methods appropriate for health economic assessments of transfusion safety interventions have not previously been described in ways that facilitate their use. Within the context of risk-based decision-making (RBDM), health economics can be important for optimizing decisions among competing

Aging and Wisdom: Age-related changes in economic and social decision making

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Kenneth eLim

2015-06-01

Full Text Available World life expectancy is increasing and many populations will begin to age rapidly. The impeding prevalence of a greater number of older people living longer lives will have significant social and economic implications. It is important to understand how older people make economic and social decisions. Aging can be associated with a ‘phenomenon of decline’ and also greater wisdom. This paper seeks to examine the relationship between wisdom and aging. It reviews and connects the behavioral sciences and neuroscience literature on age differences in the following social and economic decision making domains that represent subcomponents of wisdom: 1 prosocial behavior in experimental economic games and competitive situations, 2 resolving social conflicts, 3 emotional homeostasis, 4 self-reflection, 5 dealing effectively with uncertainty in the domains of risk, ambiguity and intertemporal choice. Overall, we find a lack of research into how older people make economic and social decisions. There is, however, some evidence that older adults outperform young adults on certain subcomponents of wisdom, but the exact relationship between old age and each subcomponent remains unclear. A better understanding of these relationships holds the potential to alleviate a wide range of mental health problems, and has broad implications for social policies aimed at the elderly.

Why we should use animals to study economic decision making - a perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Kalenscher, Tobias; van Wingerden, Marijn

2011-01-01

Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particular emphasis on the optimality aspect that both classes of theories have in common. In a second part, we outline that actual, empirically observed decisions often do not conform to the normative ideals of economic and ecological models, and that many of the behavioral violations found in humans can also be found in animals. In a third part, we make a case that the sense or nonsense of the behavioral violations of optimality principles in humans can best be understood from an evolutionary perspective, thus requiring animal research. Finally, we conclude with a critical discussion of the parallels and inherent differences in human and animal research.

Dynamic adjustments of cognitive control during economic decision making.

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Soutschek, Alexander; Schubert, Torsten

2014-10-01

Decision making in the Ultimatum game requires the resolution of conflicts between economic self-interest and fairness intuitions. Since cognitive control processes play an important role in conflict resolution, the present study examined how control processes that are triggered by conflicts between fairness and self-interest in unfair offers affect subsequent decisions in the Ultimatum game. Our results revealed that more unfair offers were accepted following previously unfair, compared to previously fair offers. Interestingly, the magnitude of this conflict adaptation effect correlated with the individual subjects' focus on economic self-interest. We concluded that conflicts between fairness and self-interest trigger cognitive control processes, which reinforce the focus on the current task goal. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Building bridges between perceptual and economic decision-making: neural and computational mechanisms

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Christopher eSummerfield

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Investigation into the neural and computational bases of decision-making has proceeded in two parallel but distinct streams. Perceptual decision making (PDM is concerned with how observers detect, discriminate and categorise noisy sensory information. Economic decision making (EDM explores how options are selected on the basis of their reinforcement history. Traditionally, the subfields of PDM and EDM have employed different paradigms, proposed different mechanistic models, explored different brain regions, disagreed about whether decisions approach optimality. Nevertheless, we argue that there is a common framework for understanding decisions made in both domains, under which an agent has to combine sensory information (what is the stimulus with value information (what is it worth. We review computational models of the decision process typically used in PDM, based around the idea that decisions involve a serial integration of evidence, and assess their applicability to decisions between good and gambles. Subsequently, we consider the contribution of three key brain regions – the parietal cortex, the basal ganglia, and the orbitofrontal cortex – to perceptual and economic decision-making, with a focus on the mechanisms by which sensory and reward information are integrated during choice. We find that although the parietal cortex is often implicated in the integration of sensory evidence, there is evidence for its role in encoding the expected value of a decision. Similarly, although much research has emphasised the role of the striatum and orbitofrontal cortex in value-guided choices, they may play an important role in categorisation of perceptual information. In conclusion, we consider how findings from the two fields might be brought together, in order to move towards a general framework for understanding decision-making in humans and other primates.

Herding, social influence and economic decision-making: socio-psychological and neuroscientific analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Baddeley, Michelle

2010-01-27

Typically, modern economics has steered away from the analysis of sociological and psychological factors and has focused on narrow behavioural assumptions in which expectations are formed on the basis of mathematical algorithms. Blending together ideas from the social and behavioural sciences, this paper argues that the behavioural approach adopted in most economic analysis, in its neglect of sociological and psychological forces and its simplistically dichotomous categorization of behaviour as either rational or not rational, is too narrow and stark. Behaviour may reflect an interaction of cognitive and emotional factors and this can be captured more effectively using an approach that focuses on the interplay of different decision-making systems. In understanding the mechanisms affecting economic and financial decision-making, an interdisciplinary approach is needed which incorporates ideas from a range of disciplines including sociology, economic psychology, evolutionary biology and neuroeconomics.

Decision Making Methods in Space Economics and Systems Engineering

Science.gov (United States)

Shishko, Robert

2006-01-01

This viewgraph presentation reviews various methods of decision making and the impact that they have on space economics and systems engineering. Some of the methods discussed are: Present Value and Internal Rate of Return (IRR); Cost-Benefit Analysis; Real Options; Cost-Effectiveness Analysis; Cost-Utility Analysis; Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT); and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).

Trustworthiness and Negative Affect Predict Economic Decision-Making

OpenAIRE

Nguyen, Christopher M.; Koenigs, Michael; Yamada, Torricia H.; Teo, Shu Hao; Cavanaugh, Joseph E.; Tranel, Daniel; Denburg, Natalie L.

2011-01-01

The Ultimatum Game (UG) is a widely used and well-studied laboratory model of economic decision-making. Here, we studied 129 healthy adults and compared demographic (i.e., age, gender, education), cognitive (i.e., intelligence, attention/working memory, speed, language, visuospatial, memory, executive functions), and personality (i.e., “Big Five”, positive affect, negative affect) variables between those with a “rational” versus an “irrational” response pattern on the UG. Our data indicated t...

Health Economic Data in Reimbursement of New Medical Technologies: Importance of the Socio-Economic Burden as a Decision-Making Criterion.

Science.gov (United States)

Iskrov, Georgi; Dermendzhiev, Svetlan; Miteva-Katrandzhieva, Tsonka; Stefanov, Rumen

2016-01-01

Assessment and appraisal of new medical technologies require a balance between the interests of different stakeholders. Final decision should take into account the societal value of new therapies. This perspective paper discusses the socio-economic burden of disease as a specific reimbursement decision-making criterion and calls for the inclusion of it as a counterbalance to the cost-effectiveness and budget impact criteria. Socio-economic burden is a decision-making criterion, accounting for diseases, for which the assessed medical technology is indicated. This indicator is usually researched through cost-of-illness studies that systematically quantify the socio-economic burden of diseases on the individual and on the society. This is a very important consideration as it illustrates direct budgetary consequences of diseases in the health system and indirect costs associated with patient or carer productivity losses. By measuring and comparing the socio-economic burden of different diseases to society, health authorities and payers could benefit in optimizing priority setting and resource allocation. New medical technologies, especially innovative therapies, present an excellent case study for the inclusion of socio-economic burden in reimbursement decision-making. Assessment and appraisal have been greatly concentrated so far on cost-effectiveness and budget impact, marginalizing all other considerations. In this context, data on disease burden and inclusion of explicit criterion of socio-economic burden in reimbursement decision-making may be highly beneficial. Realizing the magnitude of the lost socio-economic contribution resulting from diseases in question could be a reasonable way for policy makers to accept a higher valuation of innovative therapies.

Decision Making with Imperfect Decision Makers

CERN Document Server

Guy, Tatiana Valentine; Wolpert, David H

2012-01-01

Prescriptive Bayesian decision making has reached a high level of maturity and is well-supported algorithmically. However, experimental data shows that real decision makers choose such Bayes-optimal decisions surprisingly infrequently, often making decisions that are badly sub-optimal. So prevalent is such imperfect decision-making that it should be accepted as an inherent feature of real decision makers living within interacting societies. To date such societies have been investigated from an economic and gametheoretic perspective, and even to a degree from a physics perspective. However, lit

Individual differences in decision making: Drive and reward responsiveness affect strategic bargaining in economic games

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Sanfey Alan G

2006-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In the growing body of literature on economic decision making, the main focus has typically been on explaining aggregate behavior, with little interest in individual differences despite considerable between-subject variability in decision responses. In this study, we were interested in asking to what degree individual differences in fundamental psychological processes can mediate economic decision-making behavior. Methods Specifically, we studied a personality dimension that may influence economic decision-making, the Behavioral Activation System, (BAS which is composed of three components: Reward Responsiveness, Drive, and Fun Seeking. In order to assess economic decision making, we utilized two commonly-used tasks, the Ultimatum Game and Dictator Game. Individual differences in BAS were measured by completion of the BIS/BAS Scales, and correlations between the BAS scales and monetary offers made in the two tasks were computed. Results We found that higher scores on BAS Drive and on BAS Reward Responsiveness were associated with a pattern of higher offers on the Ultimatum Game, lower offers on the Dictator Game, and a correspondingly larger discrepancy between Ultimatum Game and Dictator Game offers. Conclusion These findings are consistent with an interpretation that high scores on Drive and Reward Responsiveness are associated with a strategy that first seeks to maximize the likelihood of reward, and then to maximize the amount of reward. More generally, these results suggest that there are additional factors other than empathy, fairness and selfishness that contribute to strategic decision-making.

Individual differences in decision making: Drive and Reward Responsiveness affect strategic bargaining in economic games.

Science.gov (United States)

Scheres, Anouk; Sanfey, Alan G

2006-10-18

In the growing body of literature on economic decision making, the main focus has typically been on explaining aggregate behavior, with little interest in individual differences despite considerable between-subject variability in decision responses. In this study, we were interested in asking to what degree individual differences in fundamental psychological processes can mediate economic decision-making behavior. Specifically, we studied a personality dimension that may influence economic decision-making, the Behavioral Activation System, (BAS) which is composed of three components: Reward Responsiveness, Drive, and Fun Seeking. In order to assess economic decision making, we utilized two commonly-used tasks, the Ultimatum Game and Dictator Game. Individual differences in BAS were measured by completion of the BIS/BAS Scales, and correlations between the BAS scales and monetary offers made in the two tasks were computed. We found that higher scores on BAS Drive and on BAS Reward Responsiveness were associated with a pattern of higher offers on the Ultimatum Game, lower offers on the Dictator Game, and a correspondingly larger discrepancy between Ultimatum Game and Dictator Game offers. These findings are consistent with an interpretation that high scores on Drive and Reward Responsiveness are associated with a strategy that first seeks to maximize the likelihood of reward, and then to maximize the amount of reward. More generally, these results suggest that there are additional factors other than empathy, fairness and selfishness that contribute to strategic decision-making.

Neuroethics transformation of economic rationality: implications for decision making in business

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José-Félix Lozano

2017-02-01

Full Text Available The economy and business field has traditionally been dominated by a conception of calculator, strategic and profit-maximizing individual rationality. This model of rationality has important theoretical limitations and practical consequences. In recent decades the results of neuroethics´ research seems open new ways for understanding the practical rationality. These new routes, representing a revaluation of emotional and intuitive dimension in cognitive ability and have great relevance for business and economic decision making. The aim of this paper is to analyse the implications of a rational dialogic-friendly (cor-cordis concept for economic and business decision-making. Our work proposes a version of the dialogic-friendly practical rationality that integrate advances in neuroethics with the discursive rationality perspective in order to overcome the strategic rationality and emotivist intuitionism.

Helping patients make better decisions: how to apply behavioral economics in clinical practice

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Courtney MR

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Maureen Reni Courtney,1 Christy Spivey,2 Kathy M Daniel1 1College of Nursing, 2College of Business, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX, USA  Abstract: Clinicians are committed to effectively educating patients and helping them to make sound decisions concerning their own health care. However, how do clinicians determine what is effective education? How do they present information clearly and in a manner that patients understand and can use to make informed decisions? Behavioral economics (BE is a subfield of economics that can assist clinicians to better understand how individuals actually make decisions. BE research can help guide interactions with patients so that information is presented and discussed in a more deliberate and impactful way. We can be more effective providers of care when we understand the factors that influence how our patients make decisions, factors of which we may have been largely unaware. BE research that focuses on health care and medical decision making is becoming more widely known, and what has been reported suggests that BE interventions can be effective in the medical realm. The purpose of this article is to provide clinicians with an overview of BE decision science and derived practice strategies to promote more effective behavior change in patients.Keywords: nursing, message framing, defaults, incentives, social norms, commitment devices, health care

Why we should use animals to study economic decision making – a perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tobias eKalenscher

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particular emphasis on the optimality aspect that both classes of theories have in common. In a second part, we outline that actual, empirically observed decisions often do not conform to the normative ideals of economic and ecological models, and that many of the behavioral violations found in humans can also be found in animals. In a third part, we make a case that the sense or nonsense of the behavioral violations of optimality principles in humans can best be understood from an evolutionary perspective, thus requiring animal research. Finally, we conclude with a critical discussion of the parallels and inherent differences in human and animal research.

Why We Should Use Animals to Study Economic Decision Making – A Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Kalenscher, Tobias; van Wingerden, Marijn

2011-01-01

Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particular emphasis on the optimality aspect that both classes of theories have in common. In a second part, we outline that actual, empirically observed decisions often do not conform to the normative ideals of economic and ecological models, and that many of the behavioral violations found in humans can also be found in animals. In a third part, we make a case that the sense or nonsense of the behavioral violations of optimality principles in humans can best be understood from an evolutionary perspective, thus requiring animal research. Finally, we conclude with a critical discussion of the parallels and inherent differences in human and animal research. PMID:21731558

Health economic data in reimbursement of new medical technologies: importance of the socio-economic burden as a decision-making criterion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Georgi Iskrov

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Background: Assessment and appraisal of new medical technologies require a balance between the interests of different stakeholders. Final decision should take into account the societal value of new therapies.Objective: This perspective paper discusses the socio-economic burden of disease as a specific reimbursement decision-making criterion and calls for the inclusion of it as a counterbalance to the cost-effectiveness and budget impact criteria.Results/Conclusions: Socio-economic burden is a decision-making criterion, accounting for diseases, for which the assessed medical technology is indicated. This indicator is usually researched through cost-of-illness studies that systematically quantify the socio-economic burden of diseases on the individual and on the society. This is a very important consideration as it illustrates direct budgetary consequences of diseases in the health system and indirect costs associated with patient or carer productivity losses. By measuring and comparing the socio-economic burden of different diseases to society, health authorities and payers could benefit in optimizing priority setting and resource allocation.New medical technologies, especially innovative therapies, present an excellent case study for the inclusion of socio-economic burden in reimbursement decision-making. Assessment and appraisal have been greatly concentrated so far on cost-effectiveness and budget impact, marginalizing all other considerations. In this context, data on disease burden and inclusion of explicit criterion of socio-economic burden in reimbursement decision-making may be highly beneficial. Realizing the magnitude of the lost socio-economic contribution resulting from diseases in question could be a reasonable way for policy makers to accept a higher valuation of innovative therapies.

Embodied economics: how bodily information shapes the social coordination dynamics of decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Oullier, Olivier; Basso, Frédéric

2010-01-27

To date, experiments in economics are restricted to situations in which individuals are not influenced by the physical presence of other people. In such contexts, interactions remain at an abstract level, agents guessing what another person is thinking or is about to decide based on money exchange. Physical presence and bodily signals are therefore left out of the picture. However, in real life, social interactions (involving economic decisions or not) are not solely determined by a person's inference about someone else's state-of-mind. In this essay, we argue for embodied economics: an approach to neuroeconomics that takes into account how information provided by the entire body and its coordination dynamics influences the way we make economic decisions. Considering the role of embodiment in economics--movements, posture, sensitivity to mimicry and every kind of information the body conveys--makes sense. This is what we claim in this essay which, to some extent, constitutes a plea to consider bodily interactions between agents in social (neuro)economics.

A Review of Consequences of Poverty on Economic Decision-Making: A Hypothesized Model of a Cognitive Mechanism.

Science.gov (United States)

Adamkovič, Matúš; Martončik, Marcel

2017-01-01

This review focuses on the issue of poverty affecting economic decision-making. By critically evaluating existing studies, the authors propose a structural model detailing the cognitive mechanism involved in how poverty negatively impacts economic decision-making, and explores evidence supporting the basis for the formation of this model. The suggested mechanism consists of a relationship between poverty and four other factors: (1) cognitive load (e.g., experiencing negative affect and stress); (2) executive functions (e.g., attention, working memory, and self-control); (3) intuition/deliberation in decision-making; and (4) economic decision-making (e.g., time-discounting and risk preference), with a final addition of financial literacy as a covariate. This paper focuses on shortfalls in published research, and delves further into the proposed model.

Contributions of the Medial Prefrontal Cortex to Social Influence in Economic Decision-Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Apps, M A J; Ramnani, N

2017-09-01

Economic decisions are guided by highly subjective reward valuations (SVs). Often these SVs are over-ridden when individuals conform to social norms. Yet, the neural mechanisms that underpin the distinct processing of such normative reward valuations (NVs) are poorly understood. The dorsomedial and ventromedial portions of the prefrontal cortex (dmPFC/vmPFC) are putatively key regions for processing social and economic information respectively. However, the contribution of these regions to economic decisions guided by social norms is unclear. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging and computational modeling we examine the neural mechanisms underlying the processing of SVs and NVs. Subjects (n = 15) indicated either their own economic preferences or made similar choices based on a social norm-learnt during a training session. We found that that the vmPFC and dmPFC make dissociable contributions to the processing of SV and NV. Regions of the dmPFC processed "only" the value of rewards when making normative choices. In contrast, we identify a novel mechanism in the vmPFC for the coding of value. This region signaled both subjective and normative valuations, but activity was scaled positively for SV and negatively for NV. These results highlight some of the key mechanisms that underpin conformity and social influence in economic decision-making. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

A cross-cultural study of noblesse oblige in economic decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Fiddick, Laurence; Cummins, Denise Dellarosa; Janicki, Maria; Lee, Sean; Erlich, Nicole

2013-09-01

A cornerstone of economic theory is that rational agents are self-interested, yet a decade of research in experimental economics has shown that economic decisions are frequently driven by concerns for fairness, equity, and reciprocity. One aspect of other-regarding behavior that has garnered attention is noblesse oblige, a social norm that obligates those of higher status to be generous in their dealings with those of lower status. The results of a cross-cultural study are reported in which marked noblesse oblige was observed on a reciprocal-contract decision-making task. Participants from seven countries that vary along hierarchical and individualist/collectivist social dimensions were more tolerant of non-reciprocation when they adopted a high-ranking perspective compared with a low-ranking perspective.

Computational intelligence paradigms in economic and financial decision making

CERN Document Server

Resta, Marina

2016-01-01

The book focuses on a set of cutting-edge research techniques, highlighting the potential of soft computing tools in the analysis of economic and financial phenomena and in providing support for the decision-making process. In the first part the textbook presents a comprehensive and self-contained introduction to the field of self-organizing maps, elastic maps and social network analysis tools and provides necessary background material on the topic, including a discussion of more recent developments in the field. In the second part the focus is on practical applications, with particular attention paid to budgeting problems, market simulations, and decision-making processes, and on how such problems can be effectively managed by developing proper methods to automatically detect certain patterns. The book offers a valuable resource for both students and practitioners with an introductory-level college math background.

Behavioral Economics and Marketing in Aid of Decision Making Among the Poor

OpenAIRE

Bertrand, Marianne; Shafir, Eldar; Mullainathan, Sendhil

2006-01-01

This article considers several aspects of the economic decision making of the poor from the perspective of behavioral economics, and it focuses on potential contributions from marketing. Among other things, the authors consider some relevant facets of the social and institutional environments in which the poor interact, and they review some behavioral patterns that are likely to arise in these contexts. A behaviorally more informed perspective can help make sense of what might otherwise be co...

Embodied economics: how bodily information shapes the social coordination dynamics of decision-making

Science.gov (United States)

Oullier, Olivier; Basso, Frédéric

2010-01-01

To date, experiments in economics are restricted to situations in which individuals are not influenced by the physical presence of other people. In such contexts, interactions remain at an abstract level, agents guessing what another person is thinking or is about to decide based on money exchange. Physical presence and bodily signals are therefore left out of the picture. However, in real life, social interactions (involving economic decisions or not) are not solely determined by a person's inference about someone else's state-of-mind. In this essay, we argue for embodied economics: an approach to neuroeconomics that takes into account how information provided by the entire body and its coordination dynamics influences the way we make economic decisions. Considering the role of embodiment in economics—movements, posture, sensitivity to mimicry and every kind of information the body conveys—makes sense. This is what we claim in this essay which, to some extent, constitutes a plea to consider bodily interactions between agents in social (neuro)economics. PMID:20026467

A Review of Consequences of Poverty on Economic Decision-Making: A Hypothesized Model of a Cognitive Mechanism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matúš Adamkovič

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This review focuses on the issue of poverty affecting economic decision-making. By critically evaluating existing studies, the authors propose a structural model detailing the cognitive mechanism involved in how poverty negatively impacts economic decision-making, and explores evidence supporting the basis for the formation of this model. The suggested mechanism consists of a relationship between poverty and four other factors: (1 cognitive load (e.g., experiencing negative affect and stress; (2 executive functions (e.g., attention, working memory, and self-control; (3 intuition/deliberation in decision-making; and (4 economic decision-making (e.g., time-discounting and risk preference, with a final addition of financial literacy as a covariate. This paper focuses on shortfalls in published research, and delves further into the proposed model.

The Impact of Depression on Social Economic Decision Making [correction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Harlé, K.M.; Allen, J.J.B.; Sanfey, A.G.

2010-01-01

Reports an error in "The impact of depression on social economic decision making" by Katia M. Harlé, John J. B. Allen and Alan G. Sanfey (Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 2010[May], Vol 119[2], 440-446). In the article, the last revision received date printed on the final page of the article was

Trustworthiness and Negative Affect Predict Economic Decision-Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, Christopher M; Koenigs, Michael; Yamada, Torricia H; Teo, Shu Hao; Cavanaugh, Joseph E; Tranel, Daniel; Denburg, Natalie L

2011-09-01

The Ultimatum Game (UG) is a widely used and well-studied laboratory model of economic decision-making. Here, we studied 129 healthy adults and compared demographic (i.e., age, gender, education), cognitive (i.e., intelligence, attention/working memory, speed, language, visuospatial, memory, executive functions), and personality (i.e., "Big Five", positive affect, negative affect) variables between those with a "rational" versus an "irrational" response pattern on the UG. Our data indicated that participants with "rational" UG performance (accepting any offer, no matter the fairness) endorsed higher levels of trust, or the belief in the sincerity and good intentions of others, while participants with "irrational" UG performance (rejecting unfair offers) endorsed higher levels of negative affect, such as anger and contempt. These personality variables were the only ones that differentiated the two response patterns-demographic and cognitive factors did not differ between rational and irrational players. The results indicate that the examination of personality and affect is crucial to our understanding of the individual differences that underlie decision-making.

A Geospatial Cyberinfrastructure for Urban Economic Analysis and Spatial Decision-Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael F. Goodchild

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Urban economic modeling and effective spatial planning are critical tools towards achieving urban sustainability. However, in practice, many technical obstacles, such as information islands, poor documentation of data and lack of software platforms to facilitate virtual collaboration, are challenging the effectiveness of decision-making processes. In this paper, we report on our efforts to design and develop a geospatial cyberinfrastructure (GCI for urban economic analysis and simulation. This GCI provides an operational graphic user interface, built upon a service-oriented architecture to allow (1 widespread sharing and seamless integration of distributed geospatial data; (2 an effective way to address the uncertainty and positional errors encountered in fusing data from diverse sources; (3 the decomposition of complex planning questions into atomic spatial analysis tasks and the generation of a web service chain to tackle such complex problems; and (4 capturing and representing provenance of geospatial data to trace its flow in the modeling task. The Greater Los Angeles Region serves as the test bed. We expect this work to contribute to effective spatial policy analysis and decision-making through the adoption of advanced GCI and to broaden the application coverage of GCI to include urban economic simulations.

A FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES EFFECTIVENESS EVALUATION AS A CONDITION OF CORPORATE MANAGEMENT DECISIONS MAKING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nataliia Bieliaieva

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to substantiate, on the real figures, the need for enterprise’s financial and economic activities analysis as a condition of management decisions making to achieve the success of the company. Methodology. The research is based on a comparison and analysis of data from the organization top management. So using matrix analysis in the paper, the financial and economic activities effectiveness is evaluated. Based on these calculations, it is possible to make conclusions about the necessity of an identified management decisions regarding the future activity of the company. Results. Daily managers of various function levels accept hundreds and thousands of decisions regarding seemingly slight problems of the organization in general. At the same time, every such a decision, especially relating to the activity of the whole structure, should be clearly justified. Such a need stems from the fact that every decision leads to certain consequences. If there is a need to make a decision relating to the future of the enterprise (e.g., embodiment, reorganization, etc., it should be based on the data of the entire structure. And that is generally very difficult to do. Many factors complicate the possibility of comprehensive evaluation of the company’s activity. At the same time, analysis of basic indicators will provide the specialist with some directions according to which the priority of the analysis can be indicated and appropriate management decision can be made. Practical implications. It is built an effectiveness matrix of financial and economic activities of the enterprise. Analysis of financial and economic activities makes it possible to design necessary strategic and tactical plan for the enterprise development, revealing its reserves of production efficiency increasing. So the aim of the paper is the assessment of the effectiveness of financial and economic activities of the company on the base of matrix analysis as a

Economic Decision Making: Application of the Theory of Complex Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Kitt, Robert

In this chapter the complex systems are discussed in the context of economic and business policy and decision making. It will be showed and motivated that social systems are typically chaotic, non-linear and/or non-equilibrium and therefore complex systems. It is discussed that the rapid change in global consumer behaviour is underway, that further increases the complexity in business and management. For policy making under complexity, following principles are offered: openness and international competition, tolerance and variety of ideas, self-reliability and low dependence on external help. The chapter contains four applications that build on the theoretical motivation of complexity in social systems. The first application demonstrates that small economies have good prospects to gain from the global processes underway, if they can demonstrate production flexibility, reliable business ethics and good risk management. The second application elaborates on and discusses the opportunities and challenges in decision making under complexity from macro and micro economic perspective. In this environment, the challenges for corporate management are being also permanently changed: the balance between short term noise and long term chaos whose attractor includes customers, shareholders and employees must be found. The emergence of chaos in economic relationships is demonstrated by a simple system of differential equations that relate the stakeholders described above. The chapter concludes with two financial applications: about debt and risk management. The non-equilibrium economic establishment leads to additional problems by using excessive borrowing; unexpected downturns in economy can more easily kill companies. Finally, the demand for quantitative improvements in risk management is postulated. Development of the financial markets has triggered non-linearity to spike in prices of various production articles such as agricultural and other commodities that has added market

Neurocognitive mechanisms underlying value-based decision-making: from core values to economic value.

Science.gov (United States)

Brosch, Tobias; Sander, David

2013-01-01

VALUE PLAYS A CENTRAL ROLE IN PRACTICALLY EVERY ASPECT OF HUMAN LIFE THAT REQUIRES A DECISION: whether we choose between different consumer goods, whether we decide which person we marry or which political candidate gets our vote, we choose the option that has more value to us. Over the last decade, neuroeconomic research has mapped the neural substrates of economic value, revealing that activation in brain regions such as ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC), ventral striatum or posterior cingulate cortex reflects how much an individual values an option and which of several options he/she will choose. However, while great progress has been made exploring the mechanisms underlying concrete decisions, neuroeconomic research has been less concerned with the questions of why people value what they value, and why different people value different things. Social psychologists and sociologists have long been interested in core values, motivational constructs that are intrinsically linked to the self-schema and are used to guide actions and decisions across different situations and different time points. Core value may thus be an important determinant of individual differences in economic value computation and decision-making. Based on a review of recent neuroimaging studies investigating the neural representation of core values and their interactions with neural systems representing economic value, we outline a common framework that integrates the core value concept and neuroeconomic research on value-based decision-making.

Neurocognitive mechanisms underlying value-based decision-making: from core values to economic value

Science.gov (United States)

Brosch, Tobias; Sander, David

2013-01-01

Value plays a central role in practically every aspect of human life that requires a decision: whether we choose between different consumer goods, whether we decide which person we marry or which political candidate gets our vote, we choose the option that has more value to us. Over the last decade, neuroeconomic research has mapped the neural substrates of economic value, revealing that activation in brain regions such as ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC), ventral striatum or posterior cingulate cortex reflects how much an individual values an option and which of several options he/she will choose. However, while great progress has been made exploring the mechanisms underlying concrete decisions, neuroeconomic research has been less concerned with the questions of why people value what they value, and why different people value different things. Social psychologists and sociologists have long been interested in core values, motivational constructs that are intrinsically linked to the self-schema and are used to guide actions and decisions across different situations and different time points. Core value may thus be an important determinant of individual differences in economic value computation and decision-making. Based on a review of recent neuroimaging studies investigating the neural representation of core values and their interactions with neural systems representing economic value, we outline a common framework that integrates the core value concept and neuroeconomic research on value-based decision-making. PMID:23898252

Social-economical decision making in current and remitted major depression.

Science.gov (United States)

Pulcu, E; Thomas, E J; Trotter, P D; McFarquhar, M; Juhasz, G; Sahakian, B J; Deakin, J F W; Anderson, I M; Zahn, R; Elliott, R

2015-04-01

Prosocial emotions related to self-blame are important in guiding human altruistic decisions. These emotions are elevated in major depressive disorder (MDD), such that MDD has been associated with guilt-driven pathological hyper-altruism. However, the impact of such emotional impairments in MDD on different types of social decision-making is unknown. In order to address this issue, we investigated different kinds of altruistic behaviour (interpersonal cooperation and fund allocation, altruistic punishment and charitable donation) in 33 healthy subjects, 35 patients in full remission (unmedicated) and 24 currently depressed patients (11 on medication) using behavioural-economical paradigms. We show a significant main effect of clinical status on altruistic decisions (p = 0.04) and a significant interaction between clinical status and type of altruistic decisions (p = 0.03). More specifically, symptomatic patients defected significantly more in the Prisoner's Dilemma game (p guilt elicited by receiving unfair financial offers in the Ultimatum Game (p guilt-driven pathological hyper-altruism hypothesis in depression. There were also differences in both current and remitted patients in the relationship between altruistic behaviour and pathological self-blaming, suggesting an important role for these emotions in moral and social decision-making abnormalities in depression.

Who is Willing to Let Ethics Guide His Economic Decision-Making? Evidence from Individual Investments in Ethical Funds

OpenAIRE

Säve-Söderbergh, Jenny

2005-01-01

Recent economics literature has devoted attention towards motives beyond the typical selfish norm for economic decision-making. Yet, it still remains a puzzle who allows such considerations to govern their behavior. This paper contributes by empirically identifying some features which differentiate individuals who choose to bear the cost of ethically guided economic decision-making from others. Using unique Swedish data on individual pension portfolio choices, we find that education, the choi...

Neurocognitive Mechanisms Underlying Value-Based Decision-Making: From Core Values to Economic Value

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tobias eBrosch

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Value plays a central role in practically every aspect of human life that requires a decision: whether we choose between different consumer goods, whether we decide which person we marry or which political candidate gets our vote, we choose the option that has more value to us. Over the last decade, neuroeconomic research has mapped the neural substrates of economic value, revealing that activation in brain regions such as ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC, ventral striatum or posterior cingulate cortex reflects how much an individual values an option and which of several options he/she will choose. However, while great progress has been made exploring the mechanisms underlying concrete decisions, neuroeconomic research has been less concerned with the questions of why people value what they value, and why different people value different things. Social psychologists and sociologists have long been interested in core values, motivational constructs that are intrinsically linked to the self-schema and are used to guide actions and decisions across different situations and different time points. Core value may thus be an important determinant of individual differences in economic value computation and decision-making. Based on a review of recent neuroimaging studies investigating the neural representation of core values and their interactions with neural systems representing economic value, we outline a common framework that integrates the core value concept and neuroeconomic research on value-based decision-making.

Complementary Cognitive Capabilities, Economic Decision-Making, and Aging

OpenAIRE

Li, Ye; Baldassi, Martine; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

2013-01-01

Fluid intelligence decreases with age, yet evidence about age declines in decision-making quality is mixed: Depending on the study, older adults make worse, equally good, or even better decisions than younger adults. We propose a potential explanation for this puzzle, namely that age differences in decision performance result from the interplay between two sets of cognitive capabilities that impact decision making, one in which older adults fare worse (i.e., fluid intelligence) and one in whi...

A Review of Consequences of Poverty on Economic Decision-Making: A Hypothesized Model of a Cognitive Mechanism

OpenAIRE

Adamkovič, Matúš; Martončik, Marcel

2017-01-01

This review focuses on the issue of poverty affecting economic decision-making. By critically evaluating existing studies, the authors propose a structural model detailing the cognitive mechanism involved in how poverty negatively impacts economic decision-making, and explores evidence supporting the basis for the formation of this model. The suggested mechanism consists of a relationship between poverty and four other factors: (1) cognitive load (e.g., experiencing negative affect and stress...

What sense can the sense-making perspective make for economics?

Science.gov (United States)

Cortés, Mauricio; Londoño, Sandra

2009-06-01

A landscape of interdisciplinary decision theories is sketched with a tentative place for the sense-making approach presented by Salvatore et al (2009). Uncertainty and ambiguity are highlighted as key concepts in both, economics and sense-making perspectives aligning possible and useful conceptual coincidences among post Keynesian economics (Shackle 1974; Davidson 2005) cultural psychology (Salvatore et al. 2009) and organization theory (March 1978, 1994; Weick 1995). Few ideas for the construction of possible research agenda aimed to build a complex model of decision making are suggested. Finally a brief reflection on the study of underground economy is presented. The challenge for the link between psychology and economics is to figure out a descriptive general model of the process of decision making, perhaps by combining weighted elements of the different ways in which human rationality emerges--calculation, rule following, sense-making--for explaining singular and specific decisions.

Applying health economics for policy decision making: do devices differ from drugs?

Science.gov (United States)

Sorenson, Corinna; Tarricone, Rosanna; Siebert, Markus; Drummond, Michael

2011-05-01

Medical devices pose unique challenges for economic evaluation and associated decision-making processes that differ from pharmaceuticals. We highlight and discuss these challenges in the context of cardiac device therapy, based on a systematic review of relevant economic evaluations. Key challenges include practical difficulties in conducting randomized clinical trials, allowing for a 'learning curve' and user characteristics, accounting for the wider organizational impacts of introducing new devices, and allowing for variations in product characteristics and prices over time.

Decentralizing decision making in modularization strategies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Israelsen, Poul; Jørgensen, Brian

2011-01-01

which distorts the economic effects of modularization at the level of the individual product. This has the implication that decisions on modularization can only be made by top management if decision authority and relevant information are to be aligned. To overcome this problem, we suggest a solution...... that aligns the descriptions of the economic consequences of modularization at the project and portfolio level which makes it possible to decentralize decision making while making sure that local goals are congruent with the global ones in order to avoid suboptimal behaviour. Keywords: Modularization......; Accounting; Cost allocation; Decision rule; Decentralization...

The role (or not) of economic evaluation at the micro level: can Bourdieu's theory provide a way forward for clinical decision-making?

Science.gov (United States)

Lessard, Chantale; Contandriopoulos, André-Pierre; Beaulieu, Marie-Dominique

2010-06-01

Despite increasing interest in health economic evaluation, investigations have shown limited use by micro (clinical) level decision-makers. A considerable amount of health decisions take place daily at the point of the clinical encounter; especially in primary care. Since every decision has an opportunity cost, ignoring economic information in family physicians' (FPs) decision-making may have a broad impact on health care efficiency. Knowledge translation of economic evaluation is often based on taken-for-granted assumptions about actors' interests and interactions, neglecting much of the complexity of social reality. Health economics literature frequently assumes a rational and linear decision-making process. Clinical decision-making is in fact a complex social, dynamic, multifaceted process, involving relationships and contextual embeddedness. FPs are embedded in complex social networks that have a significant impact on skills, attitudes, knowledge, practices, and on the information being used. Because of their socially constructed nature, understanding preferences, professional culture, practices, and knowledge translation requires serious attention to social reality. There has been little exploration by health economists of whether the problem may be more fundamental and reside in a misunderstanding of the process of decision-making. There is a need to enhance our understanding of the role of economic evaluation in decision-making from a disciplinary perspective different than health economics. This paper argues for a different conceptualization of the role of economic evaluation in FPs' decision-making, and proposes Bourdieu's sociological theory as a research framework. Bourdieu's theory of practice illustrates how the context-sensitive nature of practice must be understood as a socially constituted practical knowledge. The proposed approach could substantially contribute to a more complex understanding of the role of economic evaluation in FPs' decision-making

Decision-Making under Criteria Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Kureychik, V. M.; Safronenkova, I. B.

2018-05-01

Uncertainty is an essential part of a decision-making procedure. The paper deals with the problem of decision-making under criteria uncertainty. In this context, decision-making under uncertainty, types and conditions of uncertainty were examined. The decision-making problem under uncertainty was formalized. A modification of the mathematical decision support method under uncertainty via ontologies was proposed. A critical distinction of the developed method is ontology usage as its base elements. The goal of this work is a development of a decision-making method under criteria uncertainty with the use of ontologies in the area of multilayer board designing. This method is oriented to improvement of technical-economic values of the examined domain.

Evidence for the credibility of health economic models for health policy decision-making

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Søgaard, Rikke; Lindholt, Jes S.

2012-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the credibility of health economic models of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms for health policy decision-making has improved since 2005 when a systematic review by Campbell et al. concluded that reporting standards were poor and there was divergence between...... benefited from general advances in health economic modelling and some improvements in reporting were noted. However, the low level of agreement between studies in model structures and assumptions, and difficulty in justifying these (convergent validity), remain a threat to the credibility of health economic...... models. Decision-makers should not accept the results of a modelling study if the methods are not fully transparent and justified. Modellers should, whenever relevant, supplement a primary report of results with a technical report detailing and discussing the methodological choices made....

Economic analysis for upgrade decision-making using a control system replacement example

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Grosbois, J.; Wichman, R.; Hepburn, G.A.; Basso, R.; Kumar, V.; Deregowska, D.

2006-01-01

This paper (3rd in a CNS series) provides insight on how nuclear power plants can achieve better efficiencies and reduced operations and maintenance (O and M) costs by making well-informed equipment upgrade decisions. An investment decision in a plant system upgrade will have various technical options and associated performance outcomes. These can be modelled and evaluated using economic and financial analysis methods. The economic analysis usually involves a comparison of an investment scenario versus a no-investment scenario called difference case analysis. The investment may include several scenarios due to the existence of various options, different investment timings, or desired performance results. Classical approaches, using financial tools such as net present value and internal rate of return calculations, may be used to quantify the financial benefits of the difference cases when certainty about the outcomes is assumed. When making decisions under risk, the classical approaches may be augmented with methods that consider life-cycle costs and benefits, the cost consequences of and probability of equipment failure, the timing of the replacement, and the uncertainties in estimating costs and benefits. The use of expected value and Monte Carlo simulation, among others, allow the incorporation of financial and technical uncertainty into the analysis. Finally, sensitivity analysis enables better understanding of the problem and may improve the decision and clarify the level of confidence that should be put in the outcomes. This paper illustrates the use of financial decision analysis methods for equipment replacements using a control system upgrade example. These methods may easily be generalized for other types of plant upgrades. (author)

An economic theory of patient decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, Douglas O; DeMarco, Joseph P

2005-01-01

Patient autonomy, as exercised in the informed consent process, is a central concern in bioethics. The typical bioethicist's analysis of autonomy centers on decisional capacity--finding the line between autonomy and its absence. This approach leaves unexplored the structure of reasoning behind patient treatment decisions. To counter that approach, we present a microeconomic theory of patient decision-making regarding the acceptable level of medical treatment from the patient's perspective. We show that a rational patient's desired treatment level typically departs from the level yielding an absence of symptoms, the level we call ideal. This microeconomic theory demonstrates why patients have good reason not to pursue treatment to the point of absence of physical symptoms. We defend our view against possible objections that it is unrealistic and that it fails to adequately consider harm a patient may suffer by curtailing treatment. Our analysis is fruitful in various ways. It shows why decisions often considered unreasonable might be fully reasonable. It offers a theoretical account of how physician misinformation may adversely affect a patient's decision. It shows how billing costs influence patient decision-making. It indicates that health care professionals' beliefs about the 'unreasonable' attitudes of patients might often be wrong. It provides a better understanding of patient rationality that should help to ensure fuller information as well as increased respect for patient decision-making.

Neuroeconomic approaches to emotion-related influences on decision-making

OpenAIRE

Meyer, Friederike

2015-01-01

Decades of classic economic research have neglected the role of incidental and integral emotional factors in human decision-making. Standard economic models assume that decision-making is consequentialist in nature: Decision-making is postulated to be guided by the decision maker’s rational assessment of desirability and likelihood of alternative outcomes, i.e., by his strive to maximize utility (Rick & Loewenstein, 2008). However, advances in psychology and behavioral economics led to the gr...

Decision making on fitness landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Arthur, R.; Sibani, P.

2017-04-01

We discuss fitness landscapes and how they can be modified to account for co-evolution. We are interested in using the landscape as a way to model rational decision making in a toy economic system. We develop a model very similar to the Tangled Nature Model of Christensen et al. that we call the Tangled Decision Model. This is a natural setting for our discussion of co-evolutionary fitness landscapes. We use a Monte Carlo step to simulate decision making and investigate two different decision making procedures.

Decision Making on Fitness Landscapes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arthur, Rudy; Sibani, Paolo

2017-01-01

We discuss fitness landscapes and how they can be modified to account for co-evolution. We are interested in using the landscape as a way to model rational decision making in a toy economic system. We develop a model very similar to the Tangled Nature Model of Christensen et. al. that we call...... the Tangled Decision Model. This is a natural setting for our discussion of co-evolutionary fitness landscapes. We use a Monte Carlo step to simulate decision making and investigate two different decision making procedures....

Economic modelling for life extension decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farber, M.A.; Harrison, D.L.; Carlson, D.D.

1987-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives. An analysis of the role of life extension for Virginia Power's generating system was performed using the MIDAS model, developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. MIDAS is particularly well suited to this type of study because of its decision analysis framework. The model incorporates modules for load analysis, capacity expansion, production costing, financial analysis, and rates. The decision tree structure facilitates the multiple-scenario analysis of uncertainty. The model's output includes many economic and financial measures, including capital expenditures, fuel and purchases power costs, revenue requirements, average rates, external financing requirements, and coverage ratio. Based on findings for Virginia Power's Surry 1 plant, nuclear plant life extension has economic benefits for a utility's customers and financial benefits for the utility's investors. These benefits depend on a number of economic, technical and regulatory factors. The economic analysis presented in this paper identifies many of the key factors and issues relevant to life extension planning

Strengthening national decision-making on immunization by building capacity for economic evaluation: Implementing ProVac in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Blau, Julia; Hoestlandt, Céline; D Clark, Andrew; Baxter, Louise; Felix Garcia, Ana Gabriela; Mounaud, Bérénice; Mosina, Liudmila

2015-05-07

For many years, low- and middle-income countries have made efforts to strengthen national decision-making on immunization. The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) ProVac Initiative was established to help expedite the use of evidence-based decision-making around new vaccine introduction. This initiative provides training in user-friendly cost-effectiveness models and supports the development of country-led economic evaluations. Due to the success of the ProVac Initiative in the Americas, and following requests from countries from outside the Americas, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation funded a two-year pilot effort to expand the initiative to other world regions. Called the ProVac International Working Group (IWG), this endeavor took place in 2012 and 2013. It was coordinated by PAHO and carried out in collaboration with several international partners, including the Agence de Médecine Préventive (AMP), London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), Program for Appropriate Technology in Health, Sabin Vaccine Institute, United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the World Health Organization (WHO). In the WHO European Region, technical support was provided by AMP, in close collaboration with the WHO Regional Office for Europe and other ProVac IWG partners. In 2012, AMP, the WHO Regional Office for Europe, and other partners held a training workshop in Dubrovnik, Croatia, for 31 participants from four countries of the WHO European Region. The aim was to train health professionals in standard methods of economic evaluation and to assess regional demand for economic studies to support decision-making on immunization. AMP and the other organizations also supported four national cost-effectiveness studies in the WHO European Region. The assistance included country visits and support over a period of six months, the establishment of multidisciplinary teams of experts, ongoing training on the TRIVAC decision-support model for new

Understanding consumer decisions using behavioural economics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zandstra, E.H.; Miyapuram, K.P.; Tobler, P.N.; Pammi, C.; Srinivasan, N.

2013-01-01

People make many decisions throughout the day involving finances, food and health. Many of these decisions involve considering alternatives that will occur at some point in the future. Behavioural economics is a field that studies how people make these decisions (Camerer, 1999)[[Au: The reference

Health economics and outcomes methods in risk-based decision-making for blood safety.

Science.gov (United States)

Custer, Brian; Janssen, Mart P

2015-08-01

Analytical methods appropriate for health economic assessments of transfusion safety interventions have not previously been described in ways that facilitate their use. Within the context of risk-based decision-making (RBDM), health economics can be important for optimizing decisions among competing interventions. The objective of this review is to address key considerations and limitations of current methods as they apply to blood safety. Because a voluntary blood supply is an example of a public good, analyses should be conducted from the societal perspective when possible. Two primary study designs are recommended for most blood safety intervention assessments: budget impact analysis (BIA), which measures the cost to implement an intervention both to the blood operator but also in a broader context, and cost-utility analysis (CUA), which measures the ratio between costs and health gain achieved, in terms of reduced morbidity and mortality, by use of an intervention. These analyses often have important limitations because data that reflect specific aspects, for example, blood recipient population characteristics or complication rates, are not available. Sensitivity analyses play an important role. The impact of various uncertain factors can be studied conjointly in probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The use of BIA and CUA together provides a comprehensive assessment of the costs and benefits from implementing (or not) specific interventions. RBDM is multifaceted and impacts a broad spectrum of stakeholders. Gathering and analyzing health economic evidence as part of the RBDM process enhances the quality, completeness, and transparency of decision-making. © 2015 AABB.

Neural basis of quasi-rational decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Daeyeol

2006-04-01

Standard economic theories conceive homo economicus as a rational decision maker capable of maximizing utility. In reality, however, people tend to approximate optimal decision-making strategies through a collection of heuristic routines. Some of these routines are driven by emotional processes, and others are adjusted iteratively through experience. In addition, routines specialized for social decision making, such as inference about the mental states of other decision makers, might share their origins and neural mechanisms with the ability to simulate or imagine outcomes expected from alternative actions that an individual can take. A recent surge of collaborations across economics, psychology and neuroscience has provided new insights into how such multiple elements of decision making interact in the brain.

How social cognition can inform social decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Victoria K.; Harris, Lasana T.

2013-01-01

Social decision-making is often complex, requiring the decision-maker to make inferences of others' mental states in addition to engaging traditional decision-making processes like valuation and reward processing. A growing body of research in neuroeconomics has examined decision-making involving social and non-social stimuli to explore activity in brain regions such as the striatum and prefrontal cortex, largely ignoring the power of the social context. Perhaps more complex processes may influence decision-making in social vs. non-social contexts. Years of social psychology and social neuroscience research have documented a multitude of processes (e.g., mental state inferences, impression formation, spontaneous trait inferences) that occur upon viewing another person. These processes rely on a network of brain regions including medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC), superior temporal sulcus (STS), temporal parietal junction, and precuneus among others. Undoubtedly, these social cognition processes affect social decision-making since mental state inferences occur spontaneously and automatically. Few studies have looked at how these social inference processes affect decision-making in a social context despite the capability of these inferences to serve as predictions that can guide future decision-making. Here we review and integrate the person perception and decision-making literatures to understand how social cognition can inform the study of social decision-making in a way that is consistent with both literatures. We identify gaps in both literatures—while behavioral economics largely ignores social processes that spontaneously occur upon viewing another person, social psychology has largely failed to talk about the implications of social cognition processes in an economic decision-making context—and examine the benefits of integrating social psychological theory with behavioral economic theory. PMID:24399928

How social cognition can inform social decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Victoria K; Harris, Lasana T

2013-12-25

Social decision-making is often complex, requiring the decision-maker to make inferences of others' mental states in addition to engaging traditional decision-making processes like valuation and reward processing. A growing body of research in neuroeconomics has examined decision-making involving social and non-social stimuli to explore activity in brain regions such as the striatum and prefrontal cortex, largely ignoring the power of the social context. Perhaps more complex processes may influence decision-making in social vs. non-social contexts. Years of social psychology and social neuroscience research have documented a multitude of processes (e.g., mental state inferences, impression formation, spontaneous trait inferences) that occur upon viewing another person. These processes rely on a network of brain regions including medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC), superior temporal sulcus (STS), temporal parietal junction, and precuneus among others. Undoubtedly, these social cognition processes affect social decision-making since mental state inferences occur spontaneously and automatically. Few studies have looked at how these social inference processes affect decision-making in a social context despite the capability of these inferences to serve as predictions that can guide future decision-making. Here we review and integrate the person perception and decision-making literatures to understand how social cognition can inform the study of social decision-making in a way that is consistent with both literatures. We identify gaps in both literatures-while behavioral economics largely ignores social processes that spontaneously occur upon viewing another person, social psychology has largely failed to talk about the implications of social cognition processes in an economic decision-making context-and examine the benefits of integrating social psychological theory with behavioral economic theory.

How Social Cognition Can Inform Social Decision Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Victoria eLee

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Social decision-making is often complex, requiring the decision-maker to make inferences of others’ mental states in addition to engaging traditional decision-making processes like valuation and reward processing. A growing body of research in neuroeconomics has examined decision- making involving social and nonsocial stimuli to explore activity in brain regions such as the striatum and prefrontal cortex, largely ignoring the power of the social context. Perhaps more complex processes may influence decision-making in social versus nonsocial contexts. Years of social psychology and social neuroscience research have documented a multitude of processes (e.g. mental state inferences, impression formation, spontaneous trait inferences that occur upon viewing another person. These processes rely on a network of brain regions including medial prefrontal cortex, superior temporal sulcus, temporal parietal junction, and precuneus among others. Undoubtedly, these social cognition processes affect social decision-making since mental state inferences occur spontaneously and automatically. Few studies have looked at how these social inference processes affect decision-making in a social context despite the capability of these inferences to serve as predictions that can guide future decision-making. Here we review and integrate the person perception and decision-making literatures to understand how social cognition can inform the study of social decision-making in a way that is consistent with both literatures. We identify gaps in both literatures—while behavioral economics largely ignores social processes that spontaneously occur upon viewing another person, social psychology has largely failed to talk about the implications of social cognition processes in an economic decision-making context—and examine the benefits of integrating social psychological theory with behavioral economic theory.

Emotion expression, decision-making and well-being.

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, Erte

2008-01-01

This chapter discusses the role of emotion expression in decision-making. To understand connections between emotion and decision it is helpful first to differentiate between emotion experience and emotion expression. Understanding how emotion expression influences decision-making is important as a practical matter. However, in contrast to emotion experience, economic research has paid little attention to the significance of emotion expression in decision-making. I review recent studies on emotion expression, paying specific attention to possible connections between emotion expression, punishment, fair economic exchange, and well-being. In contrast to emotions, which are typically difficult to control, I suggest that opportunities for emotion expression can feasibly be manipulated through appropriately designed policies. I further suggest that this approach may have the ability to positively affect well-being and economic outcomes. VALUE OF THE CHAPTER: The chapter provides new perspectives on how policy-makers can benefit by understanding the effect of emotion expression in decision-making. The chapter also suggests future research to improve our understanding of emotion expression.

Maintaining homeostasis by decision-making.

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Christoph W Korn

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Living organisms need to maintain energetic homeostasis. For many species, this implies taking actions with delayed consequences. For example, humans may have to decide between foraging for high-calorie but hard-to-get, and low-calorie but easy-to-get food, under threat of starvation. Homeostatic principles prescribe decisions that maximize the probability of sustaining appropriate energy levels across the entire foraging trajectory. Here, predictions from biological principles contrast with predictions from economic decision-making models based on maximizing the utility of the endpoint outcome of a choice. To empirically arbitrate between the predictions of biological and economic models for individual human decision-making, we devised a virtual foraging task in which players chose repeatedly between two foraging environments, lost energy by the passage of time, and gained energy probabilistically according to the statistics of the environment they chose. Reaching zero energy was framed as starvation. We used the mathematics of random walks to derive endpoint outcome distributions of the choices. This also furnished equivalent lotteries, presented in a purely economic, casino-like frame, in which starvation corresponded to winning nothing. Bayesian model comparison showed that--in both the foraging and the casino frames--participants' choices depended jointly on the probability of starvation and the expected endpoint value of the outcome, but could not be explained by economic models based on combinations of statistical moments or on rank-dependent utility. This implies that under precisely defined constraints biological principles are better suited to explain human decision-making than economic models based on endpoint utility maximization.

Irrational Career Decision-Making: Connecting Behavioural Economics and Career Development

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Redekopp, Dave E.

2017-01-01

Very frequently, students and clients do not do what they say they will do. Decisions and plans made in counselling sessions are often not enacted. The career development field may be better able to address the chasm between rational decisions and actual behaviour by applying the findings of behavioural economics. Behavioural economics research is…

Health economic choices in old age: interdisciplinary perspectives on economic decisions and the aging mind.

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Nielsen, Lisbeth; Phillips, John W R

2008-01-01

This chapter offers an integrative review of psychological and neurobiological differences between younger and older adults that might impact economic behavior. Focusing on key health economic challenges facing the elderly, it offers perspectives on how these psychological and neurobiological factors may influence decision-making over the life course and considers future interdisciplinary research directions. We review relevant literature from three domains that are essential for developing a comprehensive science of decision-making and economic behavior in aging (psychology, neuroscience, and economics), consider implications for prescription drug coverage and long-term care (LTC) insurance, and highlight future research directions. Older adults face many complex economic decisions that directly affect their health and well-being, including LTC insurance, prescription drug plans, and end of life care. Economic research suggests that many older Americans are not making cost-effective and economically rational decisions. While economic models provide insight into some of the financial incentives associated with these decisions, they typically do not consider the roles of cognition and affect in decision-making. Research has established that older age is associated with predictable declines in many cognitive functions and evidence is accumulating that distinct social motives and affect-processing profiles emerge in older age. It is unknown how these age differences impact the economic behaviors of older people and implies opportunities for path-breaking interdisciplinary research. Our chapter looks to develop interdisciplinary research to better understand the causes and consequences of age-related changes in economic decision-making and guide interventions to improve public programs and overall social welfare.

Should NDM change our understanding of decision making?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kerstholt, J.H.; Ayton, P.

2001-01-01

What sort of activity should we understand to be encompassed by the term decision making? As laid out by Lipshitz et al. (this issue), the Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM) framework offers a view of human decision making that stems not from the familiar economic/mathematical theoretical tradition

Entrepreneurs` Cognitive and Decision Making Styles

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Mahmoud Motvaseli

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The main purpose of this study is to explore the relation between decision-making styles which are measured by the General decision-making style (GDMS test and information processing styles which are often termed cognitive styles and are, in this study, measured by Cognitive Style Inventory. The authors directed a survey research on 162 Iranian students. Structural equation modeling techniques were used to measure the impact of cognitive styles on decision-making styles. The authors found that cognitive styles have a positive impact on decision-making styles. In spite of the abundant research on factors that affect decision-making styles, few researches have tested the relationship between cognitive styles and decision-making styles. This study examines the impact of cognitive styles on decision-making styles in Iran. This study, like most research paper studies, cannot easily be generalized. Furthermore, the results of this study could be affected by economic conditions.

Aging and the neuroeconomics of decision making: A review.

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Brown, Stephen B R E; Ridderinkhof, K Richard

2009-12-01

Neuroeconomics refers to a combination of paradigms derived from neuroscience, psychology, and economics for the study of decision making and is an area that has received considerable scientific attention in the recent literature. Using realistic laboratory tasks, researchers seek to study the neurocognitive processes underlying economic decision making and outcome-based decision learning, as well as individual differences in these processes and the social and affective factors that modulate them. To this point, one question has remained largely unanswered: What happens to decision-making processes and their neural substrates during aging? After all, aging is associated with neurocognitive change, which may affect outcome-based decision making. In our study, we use the subjective expected utility model-a well-established decision-making model in economics-as a descriptive framework. After a short survey of the brain areas and neurotransmitter systems associated with outcome-based decision making-and of the effects of aging thereon-we review a number of decision-making studies. Their general data pattern indicates that the decision-making process is changed by age: The elderly perform less efficiently than younger participants, as demonstrated, for instance, by the smaller total rewards that the elderly acquire in lab tasks. These findings are accounted for in terms of age-related deficiencies in the probability and value parameters of the subjective expected utility model. Finally, we discuss some implications and suggestions for future research.

The Relation Between Socio-Economic Characteristics and the Innovation Decision Making of Digital Television Broadcasts

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Haryati Haryati

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Migration from analog to digital technology, requires a lot of preparation, both from the side of the device, the regulation of the broadcasting industry, and the society. This study refers to the Diffusion of Innovations theory (the theory of Diffusion of Innovation (Rogers, 1986 that try to explain how an innovation (technology can be accepted into the community, through a process of decision. The aim of the research is to find out the relationship between socio-economic characteristics of the innovation and decision-making broadcast of digital television. This research uses a quantitative approach with descriptive methods aim to find out the relationship between socio-economic characteristics of the innovation and decision-making broadcast of digital television. The research was carried out in seven counties/cities in West Java Province and Banten Province. The selection of samples is carried out by Multistage Random Cluster Sampling. The number of samples as many as 813 people assigned by Proportional Sampling techniques, with the character category of respondents age 15 years until 64 years. Significance test results with the method at the rate of 5% Pearson pointed out that, the relationship between innovation decision-making variables with socio-economic characteristics on three aspects, namely, education, income, and spending is weak and insignificant, while on access to information, the value of relationships and significant. This suggests the necessity of strengthening the capacity of absorption of community efforts in the face of digital broadcast television, can be done by fixing the value of any existing components on the operational level. As a priority, is how the effort to improve the economy of society, especially in terms of education, income, and expenditure permonth.

The decision-making process between rationality and emotions

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Alvino, Letizia; Franco, Massimo

2017-01-01

The decision-making process has been analyzed in several disciplines (economics, social sciences, humanities, etc.) with the aim of creating models to help decision-makers in strategy formulation. The Organizational theory takes into account both the decision-making process of individuals and groups

Economic Decision-Making for Coal Power Flexibility Retrofitting and Compensation in China

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Chunning Na

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In China, in order to integrate more renewable energy into the power grid, coal power flexibility retrofitting is imperative. This paper elaborates a generic method for estimating the flexibility potential from the rapid ramp rate and peak shaving operation using nonlinear programming, and defines three flexibility elastic coefficients to quantify the retrofitted targets. The optimized range of the retrofitted targets determined by the flexibility elastic coefficients have a reference significance on coal power flexibility retrofitting. Then, in order to enable economic decisions for coal power flexibility retrofitting, we address a profit maximizing issue regarding optimization decisions for coal power flexibility retrofitting under an assumption of perfect competition, further analyzing the characteristic roots of marginal cost equal to marginal revenue. The rationality of current compensation standards for peak shaving in China can also be judged in the analysis. The case study results show that economic decision-making depends on the compensation standard and the peak shaving depth and time. At a certain peak shaving depth and time, with rational compensation standard power plants are willing to carry out coal power flexibility retrofitting. The current compensation standard in Northeast China is high enough to carry out coal power flexibility retrofitting. These research conclusions have theoretical significance for China’s peak shaving compensation standards formulation.

Gender Participation in Economic Activities and Decision Making in Keffi Area of Nigeria

OpenAIRE

Hassan Ishaq Ibrahim; Napoleon Danbeki Saingbe; Zubairu Ajiya Abdulkadir

2012-01-01

The study assessed gender participation and decision making role in economic activities using data collected from 120 respondents. The results revealed that female participation was frequent in crop post-harvest activities and poultry management while male participation was frequent in crop pre-harvest operations only. Female respondents participated occasionally in home gardening, goat rearing, hair dressing and food processing. Educational level, years of experience, personal income and cre...

Benevolent Ideology and Women's Economic Decision-Making: When Sexism Is Hurting Men's Wallet.

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Aude Silvestre

Full Text Available Can ideology, as a widespread "expectation creator," impact economic decisions? In two studies we investigated the influence of the Benevolent Sexism (BS ideology (which dictates that men should provide for passive and nurtured women on women's economic decision-making. In Study 1, using a Dictator Game in which women decided how to share amounts of money with men, results of a Generalized Linear Mixed Model analysis show that higher endorsement of BS and contextual expectations of benevolence were associated with more very unequal offers. Similarly, in an Ultimatum Game in which women received monetary offers from men, Study 2's Generalized Linear Mixed Model's results revealed that BS led women to reject more very unequal offers. If women's endorsement of BS ideology and expectations of benevolence prove contrary to reality, they may strike back at men. These findings show that BS ideology creates expectations that shape male-female relationships in a way that could be prejudicial to men.

Benevolent Ideology and Women's Economic Decision-Making: When Sexism Is Hurting Men's Wallet.

Science.gov (United States)

Silvestre, Aude; Sarlet, Marie; Huart, Johanne; Dardenne, Benoit

2016-01-01

Can ideology, as a widespread "expectation creator," impact economic decisions? In two studies we investigated the influence of the Benevolent Sexism (BS) ideology (which dictates that men should provide for passive and nurtured women) on women's economic decision-making. In Study 1, using a Dictator Game in which women decided how to share amounts of money with men, results of a Generalized Linear Mixed Model analysis show that higher endorsement of BS and contextual expectations of benevolence were associated with more very unequal offers. Similarly, in an Ultimatum Game in which women received monetary offers from men, Study 2's Generalized Linear Mixed Model's results revealed that BS led women to reject more very unequal offers. If women's endorsement of BS ideology and expectations of benevolence prove contrary to reality, they may strike back at men. These findings show that BS ideology creates expectations that shape male-female relationships in a way that could be prejudicial to men.

Health-care decision-making processes in Latin America: problems and prospects for the use of economic evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Iglesias, Cynthia P; Drummond, Michael F; Rovira, Joan

2005-01-01

The use of economic evaluation studies (EE) in the decision-making process within the health-care system of nine Latin American (LA) and three European countries was investigated. The aim was to identify the opportunities, obstacles, and changes needed to facilitate the introduction of EE as a formal tool in health-care decision-making processes in LA. A comparative study was conducted based on existing literature and information provided through a questionnaire applied to decision makers in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, Portugal Spain, United Kingdom, Uruguay, and Venezuela. Systematic electronic searches of HEED, NHS EED, and LILACS were conducted to identify published economic evaluation studies in LA from 1982 onward. There is relatively little evidence of the conduct and use of EE within the health care systems in LA. Electronic searches retrieved 554 records; however, only 93 were EE. In the nine LA participating countries, broad allocation of health-care resources is primarily based on political criteria, historical records, geographical areas, and specific groups of patients and diseases. Public-health provision and inclusion of services in health-insurance package are responsibilities of the Ministry of Health. Decisions regarding the purchase of medicines are primarily made through public tenders, and mainly based on differences in clinical efficacy and the price of health technologies of interest. To expedite the process of incorporating EE as a formal tool to inform decision-making processes within the health-care systems in LA countries, two main conditions need to be fulfilled. First, adequate resources and skills need to be available to conduct EE of good quality. Second, decision-making procedures need to be modified to accommodate "evidence-based" approaches such as EE.

Investor decisions through the lens of behavioral economics

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David S. Murphy

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Traditional economic theory postulates that people are rational. This implies that people make decisions to maximize their utility functions and to do this, that they have fully and correctly evaluated their preferences and limitations. Behavioral economics recognizes that this is not always true, that sometimes information is incomplete. This article is examines some of the effects of behavioral economics (which come largely from cognitive psychology in decision-making by investors in the stock exchanges.

Economic decision-making in morning/evening-type people as a function of time of day.

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Correa, Angel; Ruiz-Herrera, Noelia; Ruz, Maria; Tonetti, Lorenzo; Martoni, Monica; Fabbri, Marco; Natale, Vincenzo

2017-01-01

Decision-making is affected by psychological factors like emotional state or cognitive control, which may also vary with circadian rhythmicity. Here, we tested the influence of chronotype (32 morning-type versus 32 evening-type) and time of day (9 a.m. versus 5 p.m.) on interpersonal decision-making as measured by the Ultimatum Game. Participants had to accept or reject different economic offers proposed by a virtual participant. Acceptance involved distribution of gains as proposed, whereas rejection resulted in no gain for either player. The results of the game showed a deviation from rational performance, as participants usually rejected the unfair offers. This behaviour was similar for both chronotype groups, and in both times of day. This result may reflect the robustness of decision-making strategies across standard circadian phases under ecological conditions. Furthermore, morning-types invested more time than evening-types to respond to high-uncertainty offers. This more cautious decision-making style of morning-types fits with our finding of higher proactive control as compared to evening-types when performing the AX-Continuous Performance Task. In line with the literature on personality traits, our results suggest that morning-types behave with more conscientiousness and less risk-taking than evening-type individuals.

Genetic contributions of the serotonin transporter to social learning of fear and economic decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Crişan, Liviu G; Pana, Simona; Vulturar, Romana; Heilman, Renata M; Szekely, Raluca; Druğa, Bogdan; Dragoş, Nicolae; Miu, Andrei C

2009-12-01

Serotonin (5-HT) modulates emotional and cognitive functions such as fear conditioning (FC) and decision making. This study investigated the effects of a functional polymorphism in the regulatory region (5-HTTLPR) of the human 5-HT transporter (5-HTT) gene on observational FC, risk taking and susceptibility to framing in decision making under uncertainty, as well as multidimensional anxiety and autonomic control of the heart in healthy volunteers. The present results indicate that in comparison to the homozygotes for the long (l) version of 5-HTTLPR, the carriers of the short (s) version display enhanced observational FC, reduced financial risk taking and increased susceptibility to framing in economic decision making. We also found that s-carriers have increased trait anxiety due to threat in social evaluation, and ambiguous threat perception. In addition, s-carriers also show reduced autonomic control over the heart, and a pattern of reduced vagal tone and increased sympathetic activity in comparison to l-homozygotes. This is the first genetic study that identifies the association of a functional polymorphism in a key neurotransmitter-related gene with complex social-emotional and cognitive processes. The present set of results suggests an endophenotype of anxiety disorders, characterized by enhanced social learning of fear, impaired decision making and dysfunctional autonomic activity.

Neuroeconomics: cross-currents in research on decision-making.

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Sanfey, Alan G; Loewenstein, George; McClure, Samuel M; Cohen, Jonathan D

2006-03-01

Despite substantial advances, the question of how we make decisions and judgments continues to pose important challenges for scientific research. Historically, different disciplines have approached this problem using different techniques and assumptions, with few unifying efforts made. However, the field of neuroeconomics has recently emerged as an inter-disciplinary effort to bridge this gap. Research in neuroscience and psychology has begun to investigate neural bases of decision predictability and value, central parameters in the economic theory of expected utility. Economics, in turn, is being increasingly influenced by a multiple-systems approach to decision-making, a perspective strongly rooted in psychology and neuroscience. The integration of these disparate theoretical approaches and methodologies offers exciting potential for the construction of more accurate models of decision-making.

Incidental rewarding cues influence economic decision-making in obesity

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Jakob eSimmank

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Recent research suggests that obesity is linked to prominent alterations in learning and decision-making. This general difference may also underlie the preference for immediately consumable, highly palatable but unhealthy and high-calorie foods. Such poor food-related inter-temporal decision-making can explain weight gain; however, it is not yet clear whether this deficit can be generalized to other domains of inter-temporal decision-making, for example financial decisions. Further, little is known about the stability of decision-making behavior in obesity, especially in the presence of rewarding cues. To answer these questions, obese and lean participants (n=52 completed two sessions of a novel priming paradigm including a computerized monetary delay discounting task. In the first session, general differences between groups in financial delay discounting were measured. In the second session, we tested the general stability of discounting rates. Additionally, participants were primed by affective visual cues of different contextual categories before the financial decision. We found that the obese group showed stronger discounting of future monetary rewards than the lean group, but groups did not differ in their general stability between sessions nor in their sensitivity towards changes in reward magnitude. In the obese group, a fast decrease of subjective value over time was directly related to a higher tendency for opportunistic eating. Obese in contrast to lean people were primed by the affective cues, showing a sex-specific pattern of priming direction. Our findings demonstrate that environments rich of cues, aiming at inducing unhealthy consumer decisions, can be highly detrimental for obese people. It also underscores that obesity is not merely a medical condition but has a strong cognitive component, meaning that current dietary and medical treatment strategies may fall too short.

Human-centric decision-making models for social sciences

CERN Document Server

Pedrycz, Witold

2014-01-01

The volume delivers a wealth of effective methods to deal with various types of uncertainty inherently existing in human-centric decision problems. It elaborates on  comprehensive decision frameworks to handle different decision scenarios, which help use effectively the explicit and tacit knowledge and intuition, model perceptions and preferences in a more human-oriented style. The book presents original approaches and delivers new results on fundamentals and applications related to human-centered decision making approaches to business, economics and social systems. Individual chapters cover multi-criteria (multiattribute) decision making, decision making with prospect theory, decision making with incomplete probabilistic information, granular models of decision making and decision making realized with the use of non-additive measures. New emerging decision theories being presented as along with a wide spectrum of ongoing research make the book valuable to all interested in the field of advanced decision-mak...

Uncertain multi-attribute decision making methods and applications

CERN Document Server

Xu, Zeshui

2015-01-01

This book introduces methods for uncertain multi-attribute decision making including uncertain multi-attribute group decision making and their applications to supply chain management, investment decision making, personnel assessment, redesigning products, maintenance services, military system efficiency evaluation. Multi-attribute decision making, also known as multi-objective decision making with finite alternatives, is an important component of modern decision science. The theory and methods of multi-attribute decision making have been extensively applied in engineering, economics, management and military contexts, such as venture capital project evaluation, facility location, bidding, development ranking of industrial sectors and so on. Over the last few decades, great attention has been paid to research on multi-attribute decision making in uncertain settings, due to the increasing complexity and uncertainty of supposedly objective aspects and the fuzziness of human thought. This book can be used as a ref...

The power of science economic research and European decision-making : the case of energy and environment policies

CERN Document Server

Rossetti di Valdalbero, Domenico

2010-01-01

This book highlights the interaction between science and politics and between research in economics and European Union policy-making. It focuses on the use of Quantitative tools, Top-down and Bottom-up models in up-stream European decision-making process through five EU policy case studies: energy taxation, climate change, energy efficiency, renewable energy, and internalisation of external costs.

The evolutionary roots of human decision making.

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Santos, Laurie R; Rosati, Alexandra G

2015-01-03

Humans exhibit a suite of biases when making economic decisions. We review recent research on the origins of human decision making by examining whether similar choice biases are seen in nonhuman primates, our closest phylogenetic relatives. We propose that comparative studies can provide insight into four major questions about the nature of human choice biases that cannot be addressed by studies of our species alone. First, research with other primates can address the evolution of human choice biases and identify shared versus human-unique tendencies in decision making. Second, primate studies can constrain hypotheses about the psychological mechanisms underlying such biases. Third, comparisons of closely related species can identify when distinct mechanisms underlie related biases by examining evolutionary dissociations in choice strategies. Finally, comparative work can provide insight into the biological rationality of economically irrational preferences.

Decision Making Based On Management Information System and Decision Support System

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Şükrü Ada

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Information hasbecome an essentialresource for managing modern organizations. This is so because today’sbusiness environment is volatile, dynamic, turbulent and necessitates the burgeoning demand for accurate, relevant, complete,timely and economical information needed to drive the decision-making process in order to accentuate organizational abilities to manage opportunities and threat. MIS work on online mode with an average processing speed. Generally, it is used by low level management. Decision support system are powerful tool that assist corporate executives, administrators and other senior officials in making decision regarding the problem. Management Information Systems is a useful tool that provided organized and summarized information in a proper time to decision makers and enable making accurate decision for managers in organizations. This paper will discuss the concept, characteristics, types of MIS, the MIS model, and in particular it will highlight the impact and role of MIS on decision making.

A neural model of decision making

OpenAIRE

Larsen, Torben

2008-01-01

Background: A descriptive neuroeconomic model is aimed for relativity of the concept of economic man to empirical science.Method: A 4-level client-server-integrator model integrating the brain models of McLean and Luria is the general framework for the model of empirical findings.Results: Decision making relies on integration across brain levels of emotional intelligence (LU) and logico-matematico intelligence (RIA), respectively. The integrated decision making formula approaching zero by bot...

The Neuroscience of Social Decision-Making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rilling, J.K.; Sanfey, A.G.

2011-01-01

Given that we live in highly complex social environments, many of our most important decisions are made in the context of social interactions. Simple but sophisticated tasks from a branch of experimental economics known as game theory have been used to study social decision-making in the laboratory

Judgment and decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Fischhoff, Baruch

2010-09-01

The study of judgment and decision making entails three interrelated forms of research: (1) normative analysis, identifying the best courses of action, given decision makers' values; (2) descriptive studies, examining actual behavior in terms comparable to the normative analyses; and (3) prescriptive interventions, helping individuals to make better choices, bridging the gap between the normative ideal and the descriptive reality. The research is grounded in analytical foundations shared by economics, psychology, philosophy, and management science. Those foundations provide a framework for accommodating affective and social factors that shape and complement the cognitive processes of decision making. The decision sciences have grown through applications requiring collaboration with subject matter experts, familiar with the substance of the choices and the opportunities for interventions. Over the past half century, the field has shifted its emphasis from predicting choices, which can be successful without theoretical insight, to understanding the processes shaping them. Those processes are often revealed through biases that suggest non-normative processes. The practical importance of these biases depends on the sensitivity of specific decisions and the support that individuals have in making them. As a result, the field offers no simple summary of individuals' competence as decision makers, but a suite of theories and methods suited to capturing these sensitivities. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Combined Economic and Hydrologic Modeling to Support Collaborative Decision Making Processes

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Sheer, D. P.

2008-12-01

For more than a decade, the core concept of the author's efforts in support of collaborative decision making has been a combination of hydrologic simulation and multi-objective optimization. The modeling has generally been used to support collaborative decision making processes. The OASIS model developed by HydroLogics Inc. solves a multi-objective optimization at each time step using a mixed integer linear program (MILP). The MILP can be configured to include any user defined objective, including but not limited too economic objectives. For example, an estimated marginal value for water for crops and M&I use were included in the objective function to drive trades in a model of the lower Rio Grande. The formulation of the MILP, constraints and objectives, in any time step is conditional: it changes based on the value of state variables and dynamic external forcing functions, such as rainfall, hydrology, market prices, arrival of migratory fish, water temperature, etc. It therefore acts as a dynamic short term multi-objective economic optimization for each time step. MILP is capable of solving a general problem that includes a very realistic representation of the physical system characteristics in addition to the normal multi-objective optimization objectives and constraints included in economic models. In all of these models, the short term objective function is a surrogate for achieving long term multi-objective results. The long term performance for any alternative (especially including operating strategies) is evaluated by simulation. An operating rule is the combination of conditions, parameters, constraints and objectives used to determine the formulation of the short term optimization in each time step. Heuristic wrappers for the simulation program have been developed improve the parameters of an operating rule, and are initiating research on a wrapper that will allow us to employ a genetic algorithm to improve the form of the rule (conditions, constraints

Altered economic decision-making in abstinent heroin addicts: Evidence from the ultimatum game.

Science.gov (United States)

Hou, Yu; Zhao, Liyan; Yao, Qi; Ding, Lixiang

2016-08-03

The development and persistence of drug addiction has been suggested to involve decision-making deficits. The Ultimatum Game is a widely used economic decision-making paradigm that illustrates the tension between financial self-interest and fairness motives. The behavior of responders in the Ultimatum Game has been associated with emotional reactions and cognitive control abilities, both of which are dysregulated in drug addicts. In this study, we investigated whether this economic decision-making process that involves considerations of social norms is affected by heroin addiction. Heroin addicts (n=17) and demographically matched healthy control subjects (n=18) were recruited to play the part of responders in the Ultimatum Game, during which they decided to accept or reject the monetary offers proposed by strangers. The offers were manipulated by varying the stake sizes and fairness scales. The rejection rates of all of the offer categories, response times, fairness judgments, and impulsivity were compared between heroin addicts and healthy controls. Compared with healthy subjects, the rejection rates of most unfair offers in the Ultimatum Game were significantly higher under low-offer-size conditions among heroin addicts. In contrast, the most unfair offers were more likely to be accepted by heroin addicts in the high-offer-size condition than by healthy subjects. The ratings of unfairness were equal in both conditions although the rejection rates were different. Heroin addicts had higher scores on BIS attentional/cognitive impulsivity and non-planning impulsivity, but not in motor impulsivity. Rejection rates to most unfair offers under low-offer-size conditions significantly correlated with score on BIS non-planning impulsivity and total score of impulsivity. Heroin addicts differentially responded under different stake-level conditions in the Ultimatum Game, with emotional impulses in low-offer-size conditions and selfish motives in the face of high monetary

On the Decision-Making Process in Music Education.

Science.gov (United States)

Jorgensen, Estelle R.

1985-01-01

Sketches a conceptual framework for the systematic description of decision-making processes in music education. Refers to existing formulations in education, management, marketing, and economics. Lists decision-making phases in music education, each exhibiting the characteristics of a social system. Offers a historical example of each phase. (AYC)

Molecular neuroimaging of emotional decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Takahashi, Hidehiko

2013-04-01

With the dissemination of non-invasive human neuroimaging techniques such as fMRI and the advancement of cognitive science, neuroimaging studies focusing on emotions and social cognition have become established. Along with this advancement, behavioral economics taking emotional and social factors into account for economic decisions has been merged with neuroscientific studies, and this interdisciplinary approach is called neuroeconomics. Past neuroeconomics studies have demonstrated that subcortical emotion-related brain structures play an important role in "irrational" decision-making. The research field that investigates the role of central neurotransmitters in this process is worthy of further development. Here, we provide an overview of recent molecular neuroimaging studies to further the understanding of the neurochemical basis of "irrational" or emotional decision-making and the future direction, including clinical implications, of the field. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd and the Japan Neuroscience Society. All rights reserved.

The neuroscience of social decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Rilling, James K; Sanfey, Alan G

2011-01-01

Given that we live in highly complex social environments, many of our most important decisions are made in the context of social interactions. Simple but sophisticated tasks from a branch of experimental economics known as game theory have been used to study social decision-making in the laboratory setting, and a variety of neuroscience methods have been used to probe the underlying neural systems. This approach is informing our knowledge of the neural mechanisms that support decisions about trust, reciprocity, altruism, fairness, revenge, social punishment, social norm conformity, social learning, and competition. Neural systems involved in reward and reinforcement, pain and punishment, mentalizing, delaying gratification, and emotion regulation are commonly recruited for social decisions. This review also highlights the role of the prefrontal cortex in prudent social decision-making, at least when social environments are relatively stable. In addition, recent progress has been made in understanding the neural bases of individual variation in social decision-making.

Staged decision making based on probabilistic forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Booister, Nikéh; Verkade, Jan; Werner, Micha; Cranston, Michael; Cumiskey, Lydia; Zevenbergen, Chris

2016-04-01

Flood forecasting systems reduce, but cannot eliminate uncertainty about the future. Probabilistic forecasts explicitly show that uncertainty remains. However, as - compared to deterministic forecasts - a dimension is added ('probability' or 'likelihood'), with this added dimension decision making is made slightly more complicated. A technique of decision support is the cost-loss approach, which defines whether or not to issue a warning or implement mitigation measures (risk-based method). With the cost-loss method a warning will be issued when the ratio of the response costs to the damage reduction is less than or equal to the probability of the possible flood event. This cost-loss method is not widely used, because it motivates based on only economic values and is a technique that is relatively static (no reasoning, yes/no decision). Nevertheless it has high potential to improve risk-based decision making based on probabilistic flood forecasting because there are no other methods known that deal with probabilities in decision making. The main aim of this research was to explore the ways of making decision making based on probabilities with the cost-loss method better applicable in practice. The exploration began by identifying other situations in which decisions were taken based on uncertain forecasts or predictions. These cases spanned a range of degrees of uncertainty: from known uncertainty to deep uncertainty. Based on the types of uncertainties, concepts of dealing with situations and responses were analysed and possible applicable concepts where chosen. Out of this analysis the concepts of flexibility and robustness appeared to be fitting to the existing method. Instead of taking big decisions with bigger consequences at once, the idea is that actions and decisions are cut-up into smaller pieces and finally the decision to implement is made based on economic costs of decisions and measures and the reduced effect of flooding. The more lead-time there is in

Mindfulness training increases cooperative decision making in economic exchanges: Evidence from fMRI.

Science.gov (United States)

Kirk, Ulrich; Gu, Xiaosi; Sharp, Carla; Hula, Andreas; Fonagy, Peter; Montague, P Read

2016-09-01

Emotions have been shown to exert influences on decision making during economic exchanges. Here we investigate the underlying neural mechanisms of a training regimen which is hypothesized to promote emotional awareness, specifically mindfulness training (MT). We test the hypothesis that MT increases cooperative economic decision making using fMRI in a randomized longitudinal design involving 8weeks of either MT or active control training (CT). We find that MT results in an increased willingness to cooperate indexed by higher acceptance rates to unfair monetary offers in the Ultimatum Game. While controlling for acceptance rates of monetary offers between intervention groups, subjects in the MT and CT groups show differential brain activation patterns. Specifically, a subset of more cooperative MT subjects displays increased activation in the septal region, an area linked to social attachment, which may drive the increased willingness to express cooperative behavior in the MT cohort. Furthermore, MT resulted in attenuated activity in anterior insula compared with the CT group in response to unfair monetary offers post-training, which may suggest that MT enables greater ability to effectively regulate the anterior insula and thereby promotes social cooperation. Finally, functional connectivity analyses show a coupling between the septal region and posterior insula in the MT group, suggesting an integration of interoceptive inputs. Together, these results highlight that MT may be employed in contexts where emotional regulation is required to promote social cooperation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Decision-making and environmental impacts

OpenAIRE

Elmquist, Helena; Lindgren, Urban; Mäkilä, Kalle

2004-01-01

This report describes an interdisciplinary study combining social sciences and natural sciences in an integrated simulation model. The integrated dynamic simulation model consists of the interplay between the decision-making farmer, the physical flows at the farm and the structural conditions that influence the business. The central question studied here concerned the energy use, environmental impacts and business economics of various decision models in comparison to different levels of envir...

Probabilistic Analysis in Management Decision Making

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Delmar, M. V.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

1992-01-01

The target group in this paper is people concerned with mathematical economic decision theory. It is shown how the numerically effective First Order Reliability Methods (FORM) can be used in rational management decision making, where some parameters in the applied decision basis are uncertainty...... quantities. The uncertainties are taken into account consistently and the decision analysis is based on the general decision theory in combination with reliability and optimization theory. Examples are shown where the described technique is used and some general conclusion are stated....

Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

Science.gov (United States)

Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

2008-01-01

Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

Advances in fuzzy decision making theory and practice

CERN Document Server

Skalna, Iwona; Gaweł, Bartłomiej; Basiura, Beata; Duda, Jerzy; Opiła, Janusz; Pełech-Pilichowski, Tomasz

2015-01-01

This book shows how common operation management methods and algorithms can be extended to deal with vague or imprecise information in decision-making problems. It describes how to combine decision trees, clustering, multi-attribute decision-making algorithms and Monte Carlo Simulation with the mathematical description of imprecise or vague information, and how to visualize such information. Moreover, it discusses a broad spectrum of real-life management problems including forecasting the apparent consumption of steel products, planning and scheduling of production processes, project portfolio selection and economic-risk estimation. It is a concise, yet comprehensive, reference source for researchers in decision-making and decision-makers in business organizations alike.

Decision-making in social contexts in youth with ADHD

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ma, I.; Lambregts-Rommelse, N.N.J.; Buitelaar, J.K.; Cillessen, A.H.N.; Scheres, A.P.J.

2017-01-01

This study examined reward-related decision-making in children and adolescents with ADHD in a social context, using economic games. We furthermore examined the role of individual differences in reward-related decision-making, specifically, the roles of reward sensitivity and prosocial skills.

A canonical theory of dynamic decision-making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John eFox

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Decision-making behaviour is studied in many very different fields, from medicine and economics to psychology and neuroscience, with major contributions from mathematics and statistics, computer science, AI and other technical disciplines. However the conceptualisation of what decision-making is and methods for studying it vary greatly and this has resulted in fragmentation of the field. A theory that can accommodate various perspectives may facilitate interdisciplinary working. We present such a theory in which decision-making is articulated as a set of canonical functions that are sufficiently general to accommodate diverse viewpoints, yet sufficiently precise that they can be instantiated in different ways for specific theoretical or practical purposes. The canons cover the whole decision cycle, from the framing of a decision based on the goals, beliefs, and background knowledge of the decision maker to the formulation of decision options, establishing preferences over them, and making commitments. Commitments can lead to the initiation of new decisions and any step in the cycle can incorporate reasoning about previous decisions and the rationales for them, and lead to revising or abandoning existing commitments. The theory situates decision making with respect to other high-level cognitive capabilities like problem-solving, planning and collaborative decision-making. The canonical approach is assessed in three domains: cognitive and neuro-psychology, artificial intelligence, and decision engineering.

A Canonical Theory of Dynamic Decision-Making

Science.gov (United States)

Fox, John; Cooper, Richard P.; Glasspool, David W.

2012-01-01

Decision-making behavior is studied in many very different fields, from medicine and economics to psychology and neuroscience, with major contributions from mathematics and statistics, computer science, AI, and other technical disciplines. However the conceptualization of what decision-making is and methods for studying it vary greatly and this has resulted in fragmentation of the field. A theory that can accommodate various perspectives may facilitate interdisciplinary working. We present such a theory in which decision-making is articulated as a set of canonical functions that are sufficiently general to accommodate diverse viewpoints, yet sufficiently precise that they can be instantiated in different ways for specific theoretical or practical purposes. The canons cover the whole decision cycle, from the framing of a decision based on the goals, beliefs, and background knowledge of the decision-maker to the formulation of decision options, establishing preferences over them, and making commitments. Commitments can lead to the initiation of new decisions and any step in the cycle can incorporate reasoning about previous decisions and the rationales for them, and lead to revising or abandoning existing commitments. The theory situates decision-making with respect to other high-level cognitive capabilities like problem solving, planning, and collaborative decision-making. The canonical approach is assessed in three domains: cognitive and neuropsychology, artificial intelligence, and decision engineering. PMID:23565100

Decision-making Under Risk in Children, Adolescents, and Adults

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David ePaulsen

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Adolescents often make risky and impulsive decisions. Such behavior has led to the common assumption that a dysfunction in risk-related decision-making peaks during this age. Differences in how risk has been defined across studies, however, make it difficult to draw conclusions about developmental changes in risky decision-making. Here, we developed a non-symbolic economic decision-making task that can be used across a wide age span and that uses coefficient of variation (CV in reward as an index of risk. We found that young children showed the strongest preference for risky compared to sure bet options of equal expected value, adolescents were intermediate in their risk preference, and young adults showed the strongest risk aversion. Furthermore, children’s preference for the risky option increased for larger CVs, while adolescents and young adults showed the opposite pattern, favoring the sure bet more often as CV increased. Finally, when faced with two gambles in a risk-return tradeoff, all three age groups exhibited a greater preference for the option with the lower risk and return as the disparity in risk between the two options increased. These findings demonstrate clear age-related differences in economic risk preferences that vary with choice set and risk. Importantly, adolescence appears to represent an intermediate decision-making phenotype along the transition from childhood to adulthood, rather than an age of heightened preference for economic risk.

Affective state and decision-making in the Ultimatum Game

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wout, M. van 't; Kahn, R.S.; Sanfey, A.G.; Aleman, A.

2006-01-01

The emerging field of neuroeconomics has provided evidence that emotional as well as cognitive processes may contribute to economic decision-making. Indeed, activation of the anterior insula, a brain area involved in emotional processing, has been shown to predict decision-making in the Ultimatum

Affective state and decision-making in the Ultimatum Game

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van't Wout, M; Kahn, RS; Sanfey, AG; Aleman, A

The emerging field of neuroeconomics has provided evidence that emotional as well as cognitive processes may contribute to economic decision-making. Indeed, activation of the anterior insula, a brain area involved in emotional processing, has been shown to predict decision-making in the Ultimatum

Lone ranger decision making versus consensus decision making: Descriptive analysis

OpenAIRE

Maite Sara Mashego

2015-01-01

Consensus decision making, concerns group members make decisions together with the requirement of reaching a consensus that is all members abiding by the decision outcome. Lone ranging worked for sometime in a autocratic environment. Researchers are now pointing to consensus decision-making in organizations bringing dividend to many organizations. This article used a descriptive analysis to compare the goodness of consensus decision making and making lone ranging decision management. This art...

The decision-making process between rationality and emotions

OpenAIRE

Alvino, Letizia; Franco, Massimo

2017-01-01

The decision-making process has been analyzed in several disciplines (economics, social sciences, humanities, etc.) with the aim of creating models to help decision-makers in strategy formulation. The Organizational theory takes into account both the decision-making process of individuals and groups of a company. Numerous models have been built, which include a wide range of psychological, environmental, hierarchical factors, all of which only account the notion of rationality. In time, such ...

Excluded-Mean-Variance Neural Decision Analyzer for Qualitative Group Decision Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ki-Young Song

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Many qualitative group decisions in professional fields such as law, engineering, economics, psychology, and medicine that appear to be crisp and certain are in reality shrouded in fuzziness as a result of uncertain environments and the nature of human cognition within which the group decisions are made. In this paper we introduce an innovative approach to group decision making in uncertain situations by using a mean-variance neural approach. The key idea of this proposed approach is to compute the excluded mean of individual evaluations and weight it by applying a variance influence function (VIF; this process of weighting the excluded mean by VIF provides an improved result in the group decision making. In this paper, a case study with the proposed excluded-mean-variance approach is also presented. The results of this case study indicate that this proposed approach can improve the effectiveness of qualitative decision making by providing the decision maker with a new cognitive tool to assist in the reasoning process.

Minimizing Uncertainties Impact in Decision Making with an Applicability Study for Economic Power Dispatch

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Hong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wang, Shaobu [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Fan, Rui [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhang, Zhuanfang [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2016-09-30

This report summaries the work performed under the LDRD project on the preliminary study on knowledge automation, where specific focus has been made on the investigation of the impact of uncertainties of human decision making onto the optimization of the process operation. At first the statistics on signals from the Brain-Computing Interface (BCI) is analyzed so as to obtain the uncertainties characterization of human operators during the decision making phase using the electroencephalogram (EEG) signals. This is then followed by the discussions of an architecture that reveals the equivalence between optimization and closed loop feedback control design, where it has been shown that all the optimization problems can be transferred into the control design problem for closed loop systems. This has led to a “closed loop” framework, where the structure of the decision making is shown to be subjected to both process disturbances and controller’s uncertainties. The latter can well represent the uncertainties or randomness occurred during human decision making phase. As a result, a stochastic optimization problem has been formulated and a novel solution has been proposed using probability density function (PDF) shaping for both the cost function and the constraints using stochastic distribution control concept. A sufficient condition has been derived that guarantees the convergence of the optimal solution and discussions have been made for both the total probabilistic solution and chanced constrained optimization which have been well-studied in optimal power flows (OPF) area. A simple case study has been carried out for the economic dispatch of powers for a grid system when there are distributed energy resources (DERs) in the system, and encouraging results have been obtained showing that a significant savings on the generation cost can be expected.

Benevolent Ideology and Women’s Economic Decision-Making: When Sexism Is Hurting Men’s Wallet

Science.gov (United States)

Silvestre, Aude; Sarlet, Marie; Huart, Johanne; Dardenne, Benoit

2016-01-01

Can ideology, as a widespread “expectation creator,” impact economic decisions? In two studies we investigated the influence of the Benevolent Sexism (BS) ideology (which dictates that men should provide for passive and nurtured women) on women’s economic decision-making. In Study 1, using a Dictator Game in which women decided how to share amounts of money with men, results of a Generalized Linear Mixed Model analysis show that higher endorsement of BS and contextual expectations of benevolence were associated with more very unequal offers. Similarly, in an Ultimatum Game in which women received monetary offers from men, Study 2’s Generalized Linear Mixed Model’s results revealed that BS led women to reject more very unequal offers. If women’s endorsement of BS ideology and expectations of benevolence prove contrary to reality, they may strike back at men. These findings show that BS ideology creates expectations that shape male-female relationships in a way that could be prejudicial to men. PMID:26870955

Bounded Rationality in Individual Decision Making

OpenAIRE

Camerer, Colin F.

1998-01-01

The main objectives of this paper are: (i) To give a pithy, opinionated summary of what has been learned about bounded rationality in individual decision making from experiments in economics and psychology (drawing on my 1995 Handbook of Experimental Economics chapter); and (ii) mention some promising new directions for research which would be included if that chapter were written today.

An analysis of decision making strategies of Kocaeli region football referees

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Selvi Sabit

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In this study, in a football competition, which is one of the most interesting sports encounters today, the state of the decision-making strategies of referees, who play an important role in terms of final scores, is investigated. In line with this aim, efforts have been made to determine the decision-making strategies of Kocaeli football referees. Whether the decision-making strategies determined have changed according to variables such as gender, age, marital status, educational status, economic income, work done outside of refereeing, professional experience and refereeing years. For this purpose, “Decision Strategies Scale and Personal Information Form” developed by Bacanlı and Kuzgun [1], have been applied to a total of 117 football referees, 11 female and 106 male active football referees in Kocaeli. The results obtained from the scale applications were evaluated in the SPSS 21.00 statistical package program. As a result of the analyzes made; Subscales of decision-making strategies of referees are not significant in terms of gender, marital status, education, work experience, work done outside refereering, refereeing years; while it is not meaningful in terms of unstable, logical and dependent decision making sub-scales when compared to the economic level, it has been seen that only internal tepic decision making increases significantly when economic level is lower.

Consumer Decision-Making Abilities and Long-Term Care Insurance Purchase.

Science.gov (United States)

McGarry, Brian E; Tempkin-Greener, Helena; Grabowski, David C; Chapman, Benjamin P; Li, Yue

2018-04-16

To determine the impact of consumer decision-making abilities on making a long-term care insurance (LTCi) purchasing decision that is consistent with normative economic predictions regarding policy ownership. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, multivariate analyses are implemented to estimate the effect of decision-making ability factors on owning LTCi. Stratified multivariate analyses are used to examine the effect of decision-making abilities on the likelihood of adhering to economic predictions of LTCi ownership. In the full sample, better cognitive capacity was found to significantly increase the odds of ownership. When the sample was stratified based on expected LTCi ownership status, cognitive capacity was positively associated with ownership among those predicted to own and negatively associated with ownership among those predicted not to own who could likely afford a policy. Consumer decision-making abilities, specifically cognitive capacity, are an important determinant of LTCi decision outcomes. Deficits in this ability may prevent individuals from successfully preparing for future long-term care expenses. Policy makers should consider changes that reduce the cognitive burden of this choice, including the standardization of the LTCi market, the provision of consumer decision aids, and alternatives to voluntary and private insuring mechanisms.

Accelerated bridge construction (ABC) decision making and economic modeling tool.

Science.gov (United States)

2011-12-01

In this FHWA-sponsored pool funded study, a set of decision making tools, based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was developed. This tool set is prepared for transportation specialists and decision-makers to determine if ABC is more effective ...

Decision-making under risk in children, adolescents, and young adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Paulsen, David J; Platt, Michael L; Huettel, Scott A; Brannon, Elizabeth M

2011-01-01

Adolescents often make risky and impulsive decisions. Such behavior has led to the common assumption that a dysfunction in risk-related decision-making peaks during this age. Differences in how risk has been defined across studies, however, make it difficult to draw conclusions about developmental changes in risky decision-making. Here, we developed a non-symbolic economic decision-making task that can be used across a wide age span and that uses coefficient of variation (CV) in reward as an index of risk. We found that young children showed the strongest preference for risky compared to sure bet options of equal expected value, adolescents were intermediate in their risk preference, and young adults showed the strongest risk aversion. Furthermore, children's preference for the risky option increased for larger CVs, while adolescents and young adults showed the opposite pattern, favoring the sure bet more often as CV increased. Finally, when faced with two gambles in a risk-return tradeoff, all three age groups exhibited a greater preference for the option with the lower risk and return as the disparity in risk between the two options increased. These findings demonstrate clear age-related differences in economic risk preferences that vary with choice set and risk. Importantly, adolescence appears to represent an intermediate decision-making phenotype along the transition from childhood to adulthood, rather than an age of heightened preference for economic risk.

The involvement of the striatum in decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Goulet-Kennedy, Julie; Labbe, Sara; Fecteau, Shirley

2016-01-01

Decision making has been extensively studied in the context of economics and from a group perspective, but still little is known on individual decision making. Here we discuss the different cognitive processes involved in decision making and its associated neural substrates. The putative conductors in decision making appear to be the prefrontal cortex and the striatum. Impaired decision-making skills in various clinical populations have been associated with activity in the prefrontal cortex and in the striatum. We highlight the importance of strengthening the degree of integration of both cognitive and neural substrates in order to further our understanding of decision-making skills. In terms of cognitive paradigms, there is a need to improve the ecological value of experimental tasks that assess decision making in various contexts and with rewards; this would help translate laboratory learnings into real-life benefits. In terms of neural substrates, the use of neuroimaging techniques helps characterize the neural networks associated with decision making; more recently, ways to modulate brain activity, such as in the prefrontal cortex and connected regions (eg, striatum), with noninvasive brain stimulation have also shed light on the neural and cognitive substrates of decision making. Together, these cognitive and neural approaches might be useful for patients with impaired decision-making skills. The drive behind this line of work is that decision-making abilities underlie important aspects of wellness, health, security, and financial and social choices in our daily lives. PMID:27069380

[Decision modeling for economic evaluation of health technologies].

Science.gov (United States)

de Soárez, Patrícia Coelho; Soares, Marta Oliveira; Novaes, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh

2014-10-01

Most economic evaluations that participate in decision-making processes for incorporation and financing of technologies of health systems use decision models to assess the costs and benefits of the compared strategies. Despite the large number of economic evaluations conducted in Brazil, there is a pressing need to conduct an in-depth methodological study of the types of decision models and their applicability in our setting. The objective of this literature review is to contribute to the knowledge and use of decision models in the national context of economic evaluations of health technologies. This article presents general definitions about models and concerns with their use; it describes the main models: decision trees, Markov chains, micro-simulation, simulation of discrete and dynamic events; it discusses the elements involved in the choice of model; and exemplifies the models addressed in national economic evaluation studies of diagnostic and therapeutic preventive technologies and health programs.

Economic irrationality is optimal during noisy decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsetsos, Konstantinos; Moran, Rani; Moreland, James; Chater, Nick; Usher, Marius; Summerfield, Christopher

2016-03-15

According to normative theories, reward-maximizing agents should have consistent preferences. Thus, when faced with alternatives A, B, and C, an individual preferring A to B and B to C should prefer A to C. However, it has been widely argued that humans can incur losses by violating this axiom of transitivity, despite strong evolutionary pressure for reward-maximizing choices. Here, adopting a biologically plausible computational framework, we show that intransitive (and thus economically irrational) choices paradoxically improve accuracy (and subsequent economic rewards) when decision formation is corrupted by internal neural noise. Over three experiments, we show that humans accumulate evidence over time using a "selective integration" policy that discards information about alternatives with momentarily lower value. This policy predicts violations of the axiom of transitivity when three equally valued alternatives differ circularly in their number of winning samples. We confirm this prediction in a fourth experiment reporting significant violations of weak stochastic transitivity in human observers. Crucially, we show that relying on selective integration protects choices against "late" noise that otherwise corrupts decision formation beyond the sensory stage. Indeed, we report that individuals with higher late noise relied more strongly on selective integration. These findings suggest that violations of rational choice theory reflect adaptive computations that have evolved in response to irreducible noise during neural information processing.

Geospatial decision support systems for societal decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Bernknopf, R.L.

2005-01-01

GDSS have demonstrated the benefits of utilizing science for policy decisions. Investment in science reduces decision-making uncertainty and reducing that uncertainty has economic value.

Nonlinear responses within the medial prefrontal cortex reveal when specific implicit information influences economic decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Deppe, Michael; Schwindt, Wolfram; Kugel, Harald; Plassmann, Hilke; Kenning, Peter

2005-04-01

The authors used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate how individual economic decisions are influenced by implicit memory contributions. Twenty-two participants were asked to make binary decisions between different brands of sensorily nearly undistinguishable consumer goods. Changes of brain activity comparing decisions in the presence or absence of a specific target brand were detected by fMRI. Only when the tar get brand was the participant's favorite one did the authors find reduced activation in the dorsolateral prefrontal, posterior parietal, and occipital cortices and the left premotor area (Brodmann areas [BA] 9, 46, 7/19, and 6). Simultaneously, activity was increased in the inferior precuneus and posterior cingulate (BA 7), right superior frontal gyrus (BA 10), right supramarginal gyrus (BA 40), and, most pronounced, in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (BA 10). For products mainly distinguishable by brand information, the authors revealed a nonlinear winner-take-all effect for a participant's favorite brand characterized, on one hand, by reduced activation in brain areas associated with working memory and reasoning and, on the other hand, increased activation in areas involved in processing of emotions and self-reflections during decision making.

Decision Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pier Luigi Baldi

2006-06-01

Full Text Available This article points out some conditions which significantly exert an influence upon decision and compares decision making and problem solving as interconnected processes. Some strategies of decision making are also examined.

Emotional and Social Factors influence Poker Decision Making Accuracy.

Science.gov (United States)

Laakasuo, Michael; Palomäki, Jussi; Salmela, Mikko

2015-09-01

Poker is a social game, where success depends on both game strategic knowledge and emotion regulation abilities. Thus, poker provides a productive environment for studying the effects of emotional and social factors on micro-economic decision making. Previous research indicates that experiencing negative emotions, such as moral anger, reduces mathematical accuracy in poker decision making. Furthermore, various social aspects of the game—such as losing against "bad players" due to "bad luck"—seem to fuel these emotional states. We designed an Internet-based experiment, where participants' (N = 459) mathematical accuracy in five different poker decision making tasks were assessed. In addition, we manipulated the emotional and social conditions under which the tasks were presented, in a 2 × 2 experimental setup: (1) Anger versus neutral emotional state—participants were primed either with an anger-inducing, or emotionally neutral story, and (2) Social cue versus non-social cue—during the tasks, either an image of a pair of human eyes was "following" the mouse cursor, or an image of a black moving box was presented. The results showed that anger reduced mathematical accuracy of decision making only when participants were "being watched" by a pair of moving eyes. Experienced poker players made mathematically more accurate decisions than inexperienced ones. The results contribute to current understanding on how emotional and social factors influence decision making accuracy in economic games.

Electricity decision-making: New techniques for calculating statewide economic impacts from new power supply and demand-side management programs

Science.gov (United States)

Tegen, Suzanne Isabel Helmholz

This dissertation introduces new techniques for calculating and comparing statewide economic impacts from new coal, natural gas and wind power plants, as well as from demand-side management programs. The impetus for this work was two-fold. First, reviews of current literature and projects revealed that there was no standard way to estimate statewide economic impacts from new supply- and demand-side electricity options. Second, decision-makers who were interviewed stated that they were overwhelmed with data in general, but also lacked enough specific information about economic development impacts to their states from electricity, to make informed choices. This dissertation includes chapters on electricity decision-making and on economic impacts from supply and demand. The supply chapter compares different electricity options in three states which vary in natural resource content: Arizona, Colorado and Michigan. To account for differing capacity factors, resources are compared on a per-megawatt-hour basis. The calculations of economic impacts from new supply include: materials and labor for construction, operations, maintenance, fuel extraction, fuel transport, as well as property tax, financing and landowner revenues. The demand-side chapter compares residential, commercial and industrial programs in Iowa. Impact calculations include: incremental labor and materials for program planning, installation and operations, as well as sales taxes and electricity saved. Results from supply-side calculations in the three states analyzed indicate that adding new wind power can have a greater impact to a state's economy than adding new gas or coal power due to resource location, taxes and infrastructure. Additionally, demand-side management programs have a higher relative percentage of in-state dollar flow than supply-side solutions, though demand-side programs typically involve fewer MWh and dollars than supply-side generation. Methods for this dissertation include researching

PRINCIPLE OF POINT MAKING OFMUTUALLY ACCEPTABLE MULTIPROJECTION DECISION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olga N. Lapaeva

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The principle of point making of mutually acceptable multi-projection decision in economics is set forth in the article. The principle envisages searching for the best variant by each stakeholder and result making by crossing of individual sets.

Political anticipation: observing and understanding global socio-economic trends with a view to guide the decision-making processes

Science.gov (United States)

Caillol, Marie-Hélène

2012-01-01

Political anticipation (PA), as practiced by Laboratoire Européen d'Anticipation Politique, is a method for improving the capacity to understand trends and forecast events with the aim of influencing events on a large or small scale. Our operational definition of anticipation is 'To foresee in order to act.' Intended to be efficient and of immediate use, PA is conceived as a decision-making tool for all types of decision-makers: politicians, economists, administrators, business leaders, private investors, educators, as well as heads of households. Everyone, in a professional or private role, makes important decisions (for employees, for business operations and commerce, for family, for investments, for jurisdictions, and for the country and economic zone, among other areas in which the polis is involved). Given the dynamics of reality in our times, every decision appears as a wager on the future. It is also related to the wish or desire to obtain the best outcome for risk assumed (which a wager entails) and the effort expended.

The role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians: design and methods of a qualitative embedded multiple-case study

Science.gov (United States)

Lessard, Chantale; Contandriopoulos, André-Pierre; Beaulieu, Marie-Dominique

2009-01-01

Background A considerable amount of resource allocation decisions take place daily at the point of the clinical encounter; especially in primary care, where 80 percent of health problems are managed. Ignoring economic evaluation evidence in individual clinical decision-making may have a broad impact on the efficiency of health services. To date, almost all studies on the use of economic evaluation in decision-making used a quantitative approach, and few investigated decision-making at the clinical level. An important question is whether economic evaluations affect clinical practice. The project is an intervention research study designed to understand the role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians (FPs). The contributions of the project will be from the perspective of Pierre Bourdieu's sociological theory. Methods/design A qualitative research strategy is proposed. We will conduct an embedded multiple-case study design. Ten case studies will be performed. The FPs will be the unit of analysis. The sampling strategies will be directed towards theoretical generalization. The 10 selected cases will be intended to reflect a diversity of FPs. There will be two embedded units of analysis: FPs (micro-level of analysis) and field of family medicine (macro-level of analysis). The division of the determinants of practice/behaviour into two groups, corresponding to the macro-structural level and the micro-individual level, is the basis for Bourdieu's mode of analysis. The sources of data collection for the micro-level analysis will be 10 life history interviews with FPs, documents and observational evidence. The sources of data collection for the macro-level analysis will be documents and 9 open-ended, focused interviews with key informants from medical associations and academic institutions. The analytic induction approach to data analysis will be used. A list of codes will be generated based on both the original framework and new themes

The role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians: design and methods of a qualitative embedded multiple-case study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Beaulieu Marie-Dominique

2009-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A considerable amount of resource allocation decisions take place daily at the point of the clinical encounter; especially in primary care, where 80 percent of health problems are managed. Ignoring economic evaluation evidence in individual clinical decision-making may have a broad impact on the efficiency of health services. To date, almost all studies on the use of economic evaluation in decision-making used a quantitative approach, and few investigated decision-making at the clinical level. An important question is whether economic evaluations affect clinical practice. The project is an intervention research study designed to understand the role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians (FPs. The contributions of the project will be from the perspective of Pierre Bourdieu's sociological theory. Methods/design A qualitative research strategy is proposed. We will conduct an embedded multiple-case study design. Ten case studies will be performed. The FPs will be the unit of analysis. The sampling strategies will be directed towards theoretical generalization. The 10 selected cases will be intended to reflect a diversity of FPs. There will be two embedded units of analysis: FPs (micro-level of analysis and field of family medicine (macro-level of analysis. The division of the determinants of practice/behaviour into two groups, corresponding to the macro-structural level and the micro-individual level, is the basis for Bourdieu's mode of analysis. The sources of data collection for the micro-level analysis will be 10 life history interviews with FPs, documents and observational evidence. The sources of data collection for the macro-level analysis will be documents and 9 open-ended, focused interviews with key informants from medical associations and academic institutions. The analytic induction approach to data analysis will be used. A list of codes will be generated based on both the original

Medical decision making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stiggelbout, A.M.; Vries, M. de; Scherer, L.; Keren, G.; Wu, G.

2016-01-01

This chapter presents an overview of the field of medical decision making. It distinguishes the levels of decision making seen in health-care practice and shows how research in judgment and decision making support or improve decision making. Most of the research has been done at the micro level,

The Rational Adolescent: Strategic Information Processing during Decision Making Revealed by Eye Tracking.

Science.gov (United States)

Kwak, Youngbin; Payne, John W; Cohen, Andrew L; Huettel, Scott A

2015-01-01

Adolescence is often viewed as a time of irrational, risky decision-making - despite adolescents' competence in other cognitive domains. In this study, we examined the strategies used by adolescents (N=30) and young adults (N=47) to resolve complex, multi-outcome economic gambles. Compared to adults, adolescents were more likely to make conservative, loss-minimizing choices consistent with economic models. Eye-tracking data showed that prior to decisions, adolescents acquired more information in a more thorough manner; that is, they engaged in a more analytic processing strategy indicative of trade-offs between decision variables. In contrast, young adults' decisions were more consistent with heuristics that simplified the decision problem, at the expense of analytic precision. Collectively, these results demonstrate a counter-intuitive developmental transition in economic decision making: adolescents' decisions are more consistent with rational-choice models, while young adults more readily engage task-appropriate heuristics.

The Rational Adolescent: Strategic Information Processing during Decision Making Revealed by Eye Tracking

Science.gov (United States)

Kwak, Youngbin; Payne, John W.; Cohen, Andrew L.; Huettel, Scott A.

2015-01-01

Adolescence is often viewed as a time of irrational, risky decision-making – despite adolescents' competence in other cognitive domains. In this study, we examined the strategies used by adolescents (N=30) and young adults (N=47) to resolve complex, multi-outcome economic gambles. Compared to adults, adolescents were more likely to make conservative, loss-minimizing choices consistent with economic models. Eye-tracking data showed that prior to decisions, adolescents acquired more information in a more thorough manner; that is, they engaged in a more analytic processing strategy indicative of trade-offs between decision variables. In contrast, young adults' decisions were more consistent with heuristics that simplified the decision problem, at the expense of analytic precision. Collectively, these results demonstrate a counter-intuitive developmental transition in economic decision making: adolescents' decisions are more consistent with rational-choice models, while young adults more readily engage task-appropriate heuristics. PMID:26388664

Behavioral economic insights into physician tobacco treatment decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Leone, Frank T; Evers-Casey, Sarah; Graden, Sarah; Schnoll, Robert

2015-03-01

Physicians self-report high adherence rates for Ask and Advise behaviors of tobacco dependence treatment but are much less likely to engage in "next steps" consistent with sophisticated management of chronic illness. A variety of potential explanations have been offered, yet each lacks face validity in light of experience with other challenging medical conditions. Conduct a preliminary exploration of the behavioral economics of tobacco treatment decision-making in the face of uncertain outcomes, seeking evidence that behaviors may be explained within the framework of Prospect Theory. Four physician cohorts were polled regarding their impressions of the utility of tobacco use treatment and their estimations of "success" probabilities. Contingent valuation was estimated by asking respondents to make monetary tradeoffs relative to three common chronic conditions. Responses from all four cohorts showed a similar pattern of high utility of tobacco use treatment but low success probability when compared with the other chronic medical conditions. Following instructional methods aimed at controverting cognitive biases related to tobacco, this pattern was reversed, with success probabilities attaining higher valuation than for diabetes. Important presuppositions regarding the potential "success" of tobacco-related patient interactions are likely limiting physician engagement by favoring the most secure visit outcome despite the limited potential for health gains. Under these conditions, low engagement rates would be consistent with Prospect Theory predictions. Interventions aimed at counteracting the cognitive biases limiting estimations of success probabilities seem to effectively reverse this pattern and provide clues to improving the adoption of target clinical behaviors.

Behavioral Economic Insights into Physician Tobacco Treatment Decision-Making

Science.gov (United States)

Evers-Casey, Sarah; Graden, Sarah; Schnoll, Robert

2015-01-01

Rationale: Physicians self-report high adherence rates for Ask and Advise behaviors of tobacco dependence treatment but are much less likely to engage in “next steps” consistent with sophisticated management of chronic illness. A variety of potential explanations have been offered, yet each lacks face validity in light of experience with other challenging medical conditions. Objective: Conduct a preliminary exploration of the behavioral economics of tobacco treatment decision-making in the face of uncertain outcomes, seeking evidence that behaviors may be explained within the framework of Prospect Theory. Methods: Four physician cohorts were polled regarding their impressions of the utility of tobacco use treatment and their estimations of “success” probabilities. Contingent valuation was estimated by asking respondents to make monetary tradeoffs relative to three common chronic conditions. Measurements and Main Results: Responses from all four cohorts showed a similar pattern of high utility of tobacco use treatment but low success probability when compared with the other chronic medical conditions. Following instructional methods aimed at controverting cognitive biases related to tobacco, this pattern was reversed, with success probabilities attaining higher valuation than for diabetes. Conclusions: Important presuppositions regarding the potential “success” of tobacco-related patient interactions are likely limiting physician engagement by favoring the most secure visit outcome despite the limited potential for health gains. Under these conditions, low engagement rates would be consistent with Prospect Theory predictions. Interventions aimed at counteracting the cognitive biases limiting estimations of success probabilities seem to effectively reverse this pattern and provide clues to improving the adoption of target clinical behaviors. PMID:25664676

Business making decisions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Enrique Benjamín Franklin Fincowsky

2011-06-01

Full Text Available People and organizations make better or get wrong as consequence of making decisions. Sometimes making decisions is just a trial and error process. Some others, decisions are good and the results profitable with a few of mistakes, most of the time because it’s considered the experience and the control of a specific field or the good intention of who makes them. Actually, all kinds of decisions bring learning. What is important is the intention, the attitude and the values considered in this process. People from different scenes face many facts and circumstances—almost always out of control—that affect the making decisions process. There is not a unique way to make decisions for all companies in many settings. The person who makes a decision should identify the problem, to solve it later using alternatives and solutions. Even though, follow all the steps it’s not easy as it seems. Looking back the conditions related to the decisions, we can mention the followings: uncertainty, risk and certainty. When people identify circumstances and facts, as well as its effects in a possible situation, they will make decisions with certainty. As long as the information decreases and it becomes ambiguous the risk becomes an important factor in the making decisions process because they are connected to probable objectives (clear or subjective (opinion judgment or intuition. To finish, uncertainty, involves people that make a decision with no or little information about circumstances or criteria with basis

Decision-making in the European water framework directive

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wright, Stuart Anthony Lewis

2007-01-01

draws attention to a potential development path, which the DCA process could take, based on an important guidance document on economics in the WFD (WATECO) and the AquaMoney project, a large neoclassical project established to produce guidelines for member states as to how to conduct DCA, essentially...... based on economic valuation methodologies, specifically contingent valuation and benefit transfer. The paper is critical of this potential approach based on a theoretical discussion, which concludes that deliberative approaches to decision-making appear to be more appropriate as they better fit...... the nature of environmental problems. The second part of the paper is an analysis of the decision-making process in the WFD. The WFD both introduces economic methodologies and public participation for river basin management. The paper concludes that the use of neoclassical methods, such as contingent...

A brief history of decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Buchanan, Leigh; O'Connell, Andrew

2006-01-01

Sometime around the middle of the past century, telephone executive Chester Barnard imported the term decision making from public administration into the business world. There it began to replace narrower terms, like "resource allocation" and "policy making," shifting the way managers thought about their role from continuous, Hamlet-like deliberation toward a crisp series of conclusions reached and actions taken. Yet, decision making is, of course, a broad and ancient human pursuit, flowing back to a time when people sought guidance from the stars. From those earliest days, we have strived to invent better tools for the purpose, from the Hindu-Arabic systems for numbering and algebra, to Aristotle's systematic empiricism, to friar Occam's advances in logic, to Francis Bacon's inductive reasoning, to Descartes's application of the scientific method. A growing sophistication with managing risk, along with a nuanced understanding of human behavior and advances in technology that support and mimic cognitive processes, has improved decision making in many situations. Even so, the history of decision-making strategies--captured in this time line and examined in the four accompanying essays on risk, group dynamics, technology, and instinct--has not marched steadily toward perfect rationalism. Twentieth-century theorists showed that the costs of acquiring information lead executives to make do with only good-enough decisions. Worse, people decide against their own economic interests even when they know better. And in the absence of emotion, it's impossible to make any decisions at all. Erroneous framing, bounded awareness, excessive optimism: The debunking of Descartes's rational man threatens to swamp our confidence in our choices. Is it really surprising, then, that even as technology dramatically increases our access to information, Malcolm Gladwell extols the virtues of gut decisions made, literally, in the blink of an eye?

Altered Decision-Making under Risk in Obesity.

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Juan F Navas

Full Text Available The negative consequences of energy dense foods are well known, yet people increasingly make unhealthy food choices leading to obesity (i.e., risky decisions. The aims of this study were: [1] to compare performance in decision-making tasks under risk and under ambiguity between individuals with obesity, overweight and normal weight; [2] to examine the associations between body mass index (BMI and decision-making, and the degree to which these associations are modulated by reward sensitivity.Seventy-nine adults were recruited and classified in three groups according to their BMI: obesity, overweight and normal-weight. Groups were similar in terms of age, education and socio-economic status, and were screened for comorbid medical and mental health conditions. Decision-making under risk was measured via the Wheel of Fortune Task (WoFT and decision-making under ambiguity via the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT. Reward sensitivity was indicated by the Sensitivity to Punishment and Sensitivity to Reward Questionnaire (SPSRQ.Individuals with obesity made riskier choices in the WoFT, specifically in choices with an expected value close to zero and in the propensity to risk index. No differences were found in IGT performance or SPSRQ scores. BMI was associated with risk-taking (WoFT performance, independently of reward sensitivity.Obesity is linked to a propensity to make risky decisions in experimental conditions analogous to everyday food choices.

Subthalamic Neural Activity Patterns Anticipate Economic Risk Decisions in Gambling

Science.gov (United States)

Rosa, M.; Carpaneto, J.; Priori, A.

2018-01-01

Abstract Economic decision-making is disrupted in individuals with gambling disorder, an addictive behavior observed in Parkinson’s disease (PD) patients receiving dopaminergic therapy. The subthalamic nucleus (STN) is involved in the inhibition of impulsive behaviors; however, its role in impulse control disorders and addiction is still unclear. Here, we recorded STN local field potentials (LFPs) in PD patients with and without gambling disorder during an economic decision-making task. Reaction times analysis showed that for all patients, the decision whether to risk preceded task onset. We compared then for both groups the STN LFP preceding high- and low-risk economic decisions. We found that risk avoidance in gamblers correlated with larger STN LFP low-frequency (gambling disorder were instead not correlated with pretask STN LFP. Our results suggest that STN activity preceding task onset affects risk decisions by preemptively inhibiting attraction to high but unlikely rewards in favor of a long-term payoff. PMID:29445770

Subthalamic Neural Activity Patterns Anticipate Economic Risk Decisions in Gambling.

Science.gov (United States)

Mazzoni, A; Rosa, M; Carpaneto, J; Romito, L M; Priori, A; Micera, S

2018-01-01

Economic decision-making is disrupted in individuals with gambling disorder, an addictive behavior observed in Parkinson's disease (PD) patients receiving dopaminergic therapy. The subthalamic nucleus (STN) is involved in the inhibition of impulsive behaviors; however, its role in impulse control disorders and addiction is still unclear. Here, we recorded STN local field potentials (LFPs) in PD patients with and without gambling disorder during an economic decision-making task. Reaction times analysis showed that for all patients, the decision whether to risk preceded task onset. We compared then for both groups the STN LFP preceding high- and low-risk economic decisions. We found that risk avoidance in gamblers correlated with larger STN LFP low-frequency (gambling disorder were instead not correlated with pretask STN LFP. Our results suggest that STN activity preceding task onset affects risk decisions by preemptively inhibiting attraction to high but unlikely rewards in favor of a long-term payoff.

Decision Making in Paediatric Cardiology. Are We Prone to Heuristics, Biases and Traps?

Science.gov (United States)

Ryan, Aedin; Duignan, Sophie; Kenny, Damien; McMahon, Colin J

2018-01-01

Hidden traps in decision making have been long recognised in the behavioural economics community. Yet we spend very limited, if any time, analysing our decision-making processes in medicine and paediatric cardiology. Systems 1 and 2 thought processes differentiate between rapid emotional thoughts and slow deliberate rational thoughts. For fairly clear cut medical decisions, in-depth analysis may not be needed, but in our field of paediatric cardiology it is not uncommon for challenging cases and occasionally 'simple' cases to generate significant debate and uncertainty as to the best decision. Although morbidity and mortality meetings frequently highlight poor outcomes for our patients, they often neglect to analyse the process of thought which underlined those decisions taken. This article attempts to review commonly acknowledged traps in decision making in the behavioural economics world to ascertain whether these heuristics translate to decision making in the paediatric cardiology environment. We also discuss potential individual and collective solutions to pitfalls in decision making.

Decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Chambers, David W

2011-01-01

A decision is a commitment of resources under conditions of risk in expectation of the best future outcome. The smart decision is always the strategy with the best overall expected value-the best combination of facts and values. Some of the special circumstances involved in decision making are discussed, including decisions where there are multiple goals, those where more than one person is involved in making the decision, using trigger points, framing decisions correctly, commitments to lost causes, and expert decision makers. A complex example of deciding about removal of asymptomatic third molars, with and without an EBD search, is discussed.

Decision making in matters of pollution in France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galle, Marion

1989-01-01

Decision making in matters of pollution, although taking place in a hierarchically determined institutional setting, can be interpreted as the result of a conflictual process between the different groups involved. 1. The statutory setting: coherence of laws and adaptability of norms; a hierarchical, pyramidal, formal structure; relative autonomy and flexibility of local decision making: possibility of developing local organizations for the control of pollution. 2. The conflictual process: Within the institutional setting, decision making is the result of interaction between: the state and the authorities, who make the rules and possess the formal power; industry, which has the economic power and is the arbiter of technical feasibility; the public, who are guardians of social values and judges of the acceptability of final decisions; the experts, who possess the scientific knowledge on which decisions are based. The relative weights of these different interests in decision making are linked with the existence of today's society of communication which increases the importance of communicators and especially the media. Conclusion: decision making in questions of environmental risk and pollution necessarily consists in taking into account all the interests involved in order to arrive at a solution acceptable to the public. The interests of society are not necessarily compatible with technical or scientific logic. (author)

Optimising decision making in mastitis control

OpenAIRE

Down, P.M.

2016-01-01

Mastitis remains one of the most common diseases of dairy cows and represents a large economic loss to the industry as well as a considerable welfare issue to the cows affected. Decisions are routinely made about the treatment and control of mastitis despite evidence being sparse regarding the likely consequences in terms of clinical efficacy and return on investment. The aim of this thesis was to enhance decision making around the treatment and prevention of mastitis using probabilistic meth...

Evaluation of sustainability indicators for decision-making in mining companies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miletić Slavica

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Evaluation of sustainability indicators in terms of their importance for decision making in mining companies (RTB Bor, RTB can significantly affect the steady economic growth and development of the country. In the paper are ranked sustainability indicators in terms of their importance by illustration of implementation of multicriteria decision making. The essence of the problem is to reduce the subjectivity in the mining companies (RTB Bor who are carriers of the economic development of the country. Evaluation of sustainability indicators of mining companies was carried out using the PROMETHEE methods for multi-criteria decision making. In this method the determination of criteria weights for ranking is done firstly, then the assessment of sustainability indicators and their complete ranking is performed. Based on the obtained results by PROMETHEE method, it is determined the most important sustainability indicators for decision-making, and that is an alternative A1 (economic indicators. The most influential criteria for a complete ranking of sustainability indicators is criteria C1 (increase the utilization of resources and C3 (environmental protection. The obtained result indicates to managers how the implementation of MCDM method should treat the indicators of sustainability during the planning and management process, all with aim to sustain mining companies (RTB Bor.

Caring Cooperators and Powerful Punishers: Differential Effects of Induced Care and Power Motivation on Different Types of Economic Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Chierchia, G; Lesemann, F H Parianen; Snower, D; Vogel, M; Singer, T

2017-09-11

Standard economic theory postulates that decisions are driven by stable context-insensitive preferences, while motivation psychology suggests they are driven by distinct context-sensitive motives with distinct evolutionary goals and characteristic psycho-physiological and behavioral patterns. To link these fields and test how distinct motives could differentially predict different types of economic decisions, we experimentally induced participants with either a Care or a Power motive, before having them take part in a suite of classic game theoretical paradigms involving monetary exchange. We show that the Care induction alone raised scores on a latent factor of cooperation-related behaviors, relative to a control condition, while, relative to Care, Power raised scores on a punishment-related factor. These findings argue against context-insensitive stable preferences and theories of strong reciprocity and in favor of a motive-based approach to economic decision making: Care and Power motivation have a dissociable fingerprint in shaping either cooperative or punishment behaviors.

Multi-criteria decision analysis for use in transport decision making

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

the recent years that besides the social costs and benefits associated with transport other impacts that are more difficult to monetise should also have influence on the decision making process. This is in many developed countries realised in the transport planning, which takes into account a wide range......, however, commonly agreed that the final decision making concerning transport infrastructure projects in many cases will depend on other aspects besides the monetary ones assessed in a socio-economic analysis. Nevertheless, an assessment framework such as the Danish one (DMT, 2003) does not provide any...... specific guidelines on how to include the strategic impacts; it merely suggests describing the impacts verbally and keeping them in mind during the decision process. A coherent, well-structured, flexible, straight forward evaluation method, taking into account all the requirements of a transport...

Shared decision making

Science.gov (United States)

... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000877.htm Shared decision making To use the sharing features on this page, ... treatment you both support. When to use Shared Decision Making Shared decision making is often used when you ...

Structured decision making: Chapter 5

Science.gov (United States)

Runge, Michael C.; Grand, James B.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Krausman, Paul R.; Cain, James W. III

2013-01-01

Wildlife management is a decision-focused discipline. It needs to integrate traditional wildlife science and social science to identify actions that are most likely to achieve the array of desires society has surrounding wildlife populations. Decision science, a vast field with roots in economics, operations research, and psychology, offers a rich set of tools to help wildlife managers frame, decompose, analyze, and synthesize their decisions. The nature of wildlife management as a decision science has been recognized since the inception of the field, but formal methods of decision analysis have been underused. There is tremendous potential for wildlife management to grow further through the use of formal decision analysis. First, the wildlife science and human dimensions of wildlife disciplines can be readily integrated. Second, decisions can become more efficient. Third, decisions makers can communicate more clearly with stakeholders and the public. Fourth, good, intuitive wildlife managers, by explicitly examining how they make decisions, can translate their art into a science that is readily used by the next generation.

Handbook on Decision Making Vol 2 Risk Management in Decision Making

CERN Document Server

Lu, Jie; Zhang, Guangquan

2012-01-01

This book presents innovative theories, methodologies, and techniques in the field of risk management and decision making. It introduces new research developments and provides a comprehensive image of their potential applications to readers interested in the area. The collection includes: computational intelligence applications in decision making, multi-criteria decision making under risk, risk modelling,forecasting and evaluation, public security and community safety, risk management in supply chain and other business decision making, political risk management and disaster response systems. The book is directed to academic and applied researchers working on risk management, decision making, and management information systems.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE NET PROFIT OVER THE INVESTMENT DECISION MAKING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mihaela GADOIU

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This article aims at analysing how the investment decision is influenced by the final result of the activity of an entity after paying the profit tax. Starting from the need to make investments in order to ensure the economic efficiency and subsequently the economic growth, we sought to capture both the advantages and the disadvantages of the various versions that must be considered for the selection of the investment project. From the perspective of the presentation of this topic, we have analysed, in addition to the aspects related to the notion of investment, the investment typology, the decision to invest in a certain environment, and a number of economic and financial indicators used in order to make an investment decision.

Economics and psychology. The framing of decisions

OpenAIRE

Schilirò, Daniele

2016-01-01

In the Theory of Rational Decision Making the psychological aspects are set aside. This contribution seeks to point out the relevance of psychology into economic decisions. The essay treats the "framing of decisions", which is a pillar of Kahneman's behavioral theory. Framing must be considered a special case of the more general phenomenon of dependency from the representation. The best-known risky choice-framing problem, i.e. the "Asian Disease Problem", is shown where an essential aspect of...

Reimbursement decisions in health policy--extending our understanding of the elements of decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Wirtz, Veronika; Cribb, Alan; Barber, Nick

2005-09-08

Previous theoretical and empirical work on health policy decisions about reimbursement focuses on specific rationales such as effectiveness, economic considerations and equal access for equal needs. As reimbursement decisions take place in a social and political context we propose that the analysis of decision-making should incorporate factors, which go beyond those commonly discussed. As an example we chose three health technologies (sildenafil, rivastigmine and statins) to investigate how decisions about reimbursement of medicines are made in the United Kingdom National Health Service and what factors influence these decisions. From face-to-face, in-depth interviews with a purposive sample of 20 regional and national policy makers and stakeholders we identified two dimensions of decision-making, which extend beyond the rationales conventionally cited. The first dimension relates to the role of 'subjectivity' or 'the personal' in the decisions, including personal experiences of the condition and excitement about the novelty or potential benefit of the technology-these factors affect what counts as evidence, or how evidence is interpreted, in practice. The second dimension relates to the social and political function of decision-making and broadens what counts as the relevant ends of decision-making to include such things as maintaining relationships, avoiding organisational burden, generating politically and legally defensible decisions and demonstrating the willingness to care. More importantly, we will argue that these factors should not be treated as contaminants of an otherwise rational decision-making. On the contrary we suggest that they seem relevant, reasonable and also of substantial importance in considering in decision-making. Complementing the analysis of decision-making about reimbursement by incorporating these factors could increase our understanding and potentially improve decision-making.

Decision-making strategies: ignored to the detriment of healthcare training and delivery?

Science.gov (United States)

Desmond, Chris; Brubaker, Kathryn A; Ellner, Andrew L

2013-01-01

Context : People do not always make health-related decisions which reflect their best interest - best interest being defined as the decision they would make if they carefully considered the options and fully understood the information available. A substantial literature has developed in behavioral economics and social psychology that seeks to elucidate the patterns in individual decision-making. While this is particularly relevant to healthcare, the insights from these fields have only been applied in a limited way. To address the health challenges of the twenty-first century, healthcare providers and healthcare systems designers need to more fully understand how individuals are making decisions. Methods : We provide an overview of the theories of behavioral economics and social psychology that relate to how individuals make health-related decisions. The concentration on health-related decisions leads to a focus on three topics: (1) mental shortcuts and motivated reasoning; (2) implications of time; and (3) implications of affect. The first topic is relevant because health-related decisions are often made in a hurry without a full appreciation of the implications and the deliberation they warrant. The second topic is included because the link between a decision and its health-related outcomes can involve a significant time lag. The final topic is included because health and affect are so often linked. Findings : The literature reviewed has implications for healthcare training and delivery. Selection for medical training must consider the skills necessary to understand and adapt to how patients make decisions. Training on the insights garnered from behavioral economics and social psychology would better prepare healthcare providers to effectively support their clients to lead healthy lives. Healthcare delivery should be structured to respond to the way in which decisions are made. Conclusions : These patterns in decision-making call into question basic assumptions

Multiple criteria decision making for sustainable energy and transportation systems. Proceedings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ehrgott, Matthias [Auckland Univ. (New Zealand). Dept. of Engineering Science; Naujoks, Boris [Login GmbH, Schwelm (Germany).; Stewart, Theodor J. [Cape Town Univ., Rondebosch (South Africa). Dept. of Statistical Sciences; Wallenius, Jyrki (eds.) [Helsinki School of Economics (Finland). Dept. of Business Technology

2010-07-01

In the twenty-first century the sustainability of energy and transportation systems is on the top of the political agenda in many countries around the world and governments are establishing policies towards a sustainable, low emissions energy future. Environmental impacts of human economic activity necessitate the consideration of conflicting goals in decision making processes to develop sustainable systems. Any sustainable development has to reconcile conflicting economic and environmental objectives and criteria. The science of multiple criteria decision making has a lot to offer in addressing this need. Decision making with multiple (conflicting) criteria is the topic of research that is at the heart of the International Society of Multiple Criteria Decision Making. This book is based on selected papers presented at the societies 19th International Conference, held at The University of Auckland, New Zealand, from 7th to 12th January 2008 under the theme ''MCDM for Sustainable Energy and Transportation Systems''. (orig.)

Ego depletion decreases trust in economic decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Ainsworth, Sarah E.; Baumeister, Roy F.; Vohs, Kathleen D.; Ariely, Dan

2014-01-01

Three experiments tested the effects of ego depletion on economic decision making. Participants completed a task either requiring self-control or not. Then participants learned about the trust game, in which senders are given an initial allocation of $10 to split between themselves and another person, the receiver. The receiver receives triple the amount given and can send any, all, or none of the tripled money back to the sender. Participants were assigned the role of the sender and decided how to split the initial allocation. Giving less money, and therefore not trusting the receiver, is the safe, less risky response. Participants who had exerted self-control and were depleted gave the receiver less money than those in the non-depletion condition (Experiment 1). This effect was replicated and moderated in two additional experiments. Depletion again led to lower amounts given (less trust), but primarily among participants who were told they would never meet the receiver (Experiment 2) or who were given no information about how similar they were to the receiver (Experiment 3). Amounts given did not differ for depleted and non-depleted participants who either expected to meet the receiver (Experiment 2) or were led to believe that they were very similar to the receiver (Experiment 3). Decreased trust among depleted participants was strongest among neurotics. These results imply that self-control facilitates behavioral trust, especially when no other cues signal decreased social risk in trusting, such as if an actual or possible relationship with the receiver were suggested. PMID:25013237

The doing and undoing of male household decision-making and economic authority in Rwanda and its implications for gender transformative programming.

Science.gov (United States)

Stern, Erin; Heise, Lori; McLean, Lyndsay

2017-12-01

This paper explores two key norms that underpin intimate partner violence in Rwanda: men's roles as economic providers and decision-making authorities in the household. It describes the political, legal and socio-economic factors affecting these norms and how they create opportunities and barriers to 'undoing' restrictive gender norms. Findings are drawn from an evaluation of Inadshyikirwa, an intimate partner violence prevention programme operating in Rwanda. Across three intervention sectors, 24 focus groups were conducted with unmarried and married men and women residing in intervention communities. Thirty interviews with couples and nine interviews with opinion leaders were conducted before they completed programme training designed to shift gender norms underlying intimate partner violence. The data indicate a strong awareness of and accountability to Rwandan laws and policies supporting women's economic empowerment and decision-making, alongside persisting traditional notions of men as household heads and primary breadwinners. Transgression of these norms could be accommodated in some circumstances, especially those involving economic necessity. The data also identified increasing recognition of the value of a more equitable partnership model. Findings highlight the importance of carefully assessing cracks in the existing gender order that can be exploited to support gender equality and non-violence.

The meaning of the virtual Midas touch: an ERP study in economic decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Spapé, Michiel M; Hoggan, Eve E; Jacucci, Giulio; Ravaja, Niklas

2015-03-01

The Midas touch refers to the altruistic effects of a brief touch. Though these effects have often been replicated, they remain poorly understood. We investigate the psychophysiology of the effect using remotely transmitted, precisely timed, tactile messages in an economic decision-making game called Ultimatum. Participants were more likely to accept offers after receiving a remotely transmitted touch. Furthermore, we found distinct effects of touch on event-related potentials evoked by (a) feedback regarding accepted and rejected offers, (b) decision cues related to proposals, and (c) the haptic and auditory cues themselves. In each case, a late positive effect of touch was observed and related to the P3. Given the role of the P3 in memory-related functions, the results indicate an indirect relationship between touch and generosity that relies on memory. This hypothesis was further tested and confirmed in the positive effects of touch on later proposals. © 2014 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Decision Making and Cancer

OpenAIRE

Reyna, Valerie F.; Nelson, Wendy L.; Han, Paul K.; Pignone, Michael P.

2015-01-01

We review decision-making along the cancer continuum in the contemporary context of informed and shared decision making, in which patients are encouraged to take a more active role in their health care. We discuss challenges to achieving informed and shared decision making, including cognitive limitations and emotional factors, but argue that understanding the mechanisms of decision making offers hope for improving decision support. Theoretical approaches to decision making that explain cogni...

Neural signatures of economic parameters during decision-making: a functional MRI (FMRI), electroencephalography (EEG) and autonomic monitoring study.

Science.gov (United States)

Minati, Ludovico; Grisoli, Marina; Franceschetti, Silvana; Epifani, Francesca; Granvillano, Alice; Medford, Nick; Harrison, Neil A; Piacentini, Sylvie; Critchley, Hugo D

2012-01-01

Adaptive behaviour requires an ability to obtain rewards by choosing between different risky options. Financial gambles can be used to study effective decision-making experimentally, and to distinguish processes involved in choice option evaluation from outcome feedback and other contextual factors. Here, we used a paradigm where participants evaluated 'mixed' gambles, each presenting a potential gain and a potential loss and an associated variable outcome probability. We recorded neural responses using autonomic monitoring, electroencephalography (EEG) and functional neuroimaging (fMRI), and used a univariate, parametric design to test for correlations with the eleven economic parameters that varied across gambles, including expected value (EV) and amount magnitude. Consistent with behavioural economic theory, participants were risk-averse. Gamble evaluation generated detectable autonomic responses, but only weak correlations with outcome uncertainty were found, suggesting that peripheral autonomic feedback does not play a major role in this task. Long-latency stimulus-evoked EEG potentials were sensitive to expected gain and expected value, while alpha-band power reflected expected loss and amount magnitude, suggesting parallel representations of distinct economic qualities in cortical activation and central arousal. Neural correlates of expected value representation were localized using fMRI to ventromedial prefrontal cortex, while the processing of other economic parameters was associated with distinct patterns across lateral prefrontal, cingulate, insula and occipital cortices including default-mode network and early visual areas. These multimodal data provide complementary evidence for distributed substrates of choice evaluation across multiple, predominantly cortical, brain systems wherein distinct regions are preferentially attuned to specific economic features. Our findings extend biologically-plausible models of risky decision-making while providing

Web-Based Group Decision Support System: an Economic Application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ion ISTUDOR

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Decision Support Systems (DSS form a specific class of computerized information systems that support business and managerial decision-making activities. Making the right decision in business primarily depends on the quality of data. It also depends on the ability to analyze the data with a view to identifying trends that can suggest solutions and strategies. A “cooperative” decision support system means the data are collected, analyzed and then provided to a human agent who can help the system to revise or refine the data. It means that both a human component and computer component work together to come up with the best solution. This paper describes the usage of a software product (Vanguard System to a specific economic application (evaluating the financial risk assuming that the rate of the economic profitability can be under the value of the interest rate.

Decision-making in social contexts in youth with ADHD.

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Ili; Lambregts-Rommelse, Nanda N J; Buitelaar, Jan K; Cillessen, Antonius H N; Scheres, Anouk P J

2017-03-01

This study examined reward-related decision-making in children and adolescents with ADHD in a social context, using economic games. We furthermore examined the role of individual differences in reward-related decision-making, specifically, the roles of reward sensitivity and prosocial skills. Children and adolescents (9-17 years) with ADHD-combined subtype (n = 29; 20 boys) and healthy controls (n = 38; 20 boys) completed the ultimatum game and dictator game as measures of reward-related decision-making in social contexts. Prosocial skills were measured with the Interpersonal Reactivity Index. The ADHD group had a larger discrepancy between ultimatum game and dictator game offers than controls, indicating strategic rather than fairness driven decisions. This finding was supported by self-reports showing fewer individuals with ADHD than controls who considered fairness as motive for the decisions. Perspective taking or empathic concern did not differ between groups and was not significantly associated with offers. In conclusion, the results suggest that rather than a failure to understand the perspective of others, children and adolescents with ADHD were less motivated by fairness than controls in simple social situations. Results encourage the use of economic games in ADHD research.

PREMISES FOR A MODEL OF DECISION – MAKING ON THE FINANCING OF A PROJECT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Popovici Ioana

2010-07-01

Full Text Available The classical theory of finance is based on the premises of rationality and maximizing profits that accompany economic decision-making. Complementarily, the modern theory of behavioral finance studies the effect of emotional and psychological factors of decision- maker on the choice of financing sources for economic activities. In opposition with the classical perspective, the contemporary theory of finance brings up to the stage various aspects of decision making, including elements of strategic behavior towards risk. All these contradictory elements are used as premises for modeling the decision making process of financing a project.

Categorization = Decision Making + Generalization

Science.gov (United States)

Seger, Carol A; Peterson, Erik J.

2013-01-01

We rarely, if ever, repeatedly encounter exactly the same situation. This makes generalization crucial for real world decision making. We argue that categorization, the study of generalizable representations, is a type of decision making, and that categorization learning research would benefit from approaches developed to study the neuroscience of decision making. Similarly, methods developed to examine generalization and learning within the field of categorization may enhance decision making research. We first discuss perceptual information processing and integration, with an emphasis on accumulator models. We then examine learning the value of different decision making choices via experience, emphasizing reinforcement learning modeling approaches. Next we discuss how value is combined with other factors in decision making, emphasizing the effects of uncertainty. Finally, we describe how a final decision is selected via thresholding processes implemented by the basal ganglia and related regions. We also consider how memory related functions in the hippocampus may be integrated with decision making mechanisms and contribute to categorization. PMID:23548891

Nudge or Grudge? Choice Architecture and Parental Decision-Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Blumenthal-Barby, Jennifer; Opel, Douglas J

2018-03-01

Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein define a nudge as "any aspect of the choice architecture that alters people's behavior in a predictable way without forbidding any options or significantly changing their economic incentives." Much has been written about the ethics of nudging competent adult patients. Less has been written about the ethics of nudging surrogates' decision-making and how the ethical considerations and arguments in that context might differ. Even less has been written about nudging surrogate decision-making in the context of pediatrics, despite fundamental differences that exist between the pediatric and adult contexts. Yet, as the field of behavioral economics matures and its insights become more established and well-known, nudges will become more crafted, sophisticated, intentional, and targeted. Thus, the time is now for reflection and ethical analysis regarding the appropriateness of nudges in pediatrics. We argue that there is an even stronger ethical justification for nudging in parental decision-making than with competent adult patients deciding for themselves. We give three main reasons in support of this: (1) child patients do not have autonomy that can be violated (a concern with some nudges), and nudging need not violate parental decision-making authority; (2) nudging can help fulfill pediatric clinicians' obligations to ensure parental decisions are in the child's interests, particularly in contexts where there is high certainty that a recommended intervention is low risk and of high benefit; and (3) nudging can relieve parents' decisional burden regarding what is best for their child, particularly with decisions that have implications for public health. © 2018 The Hastings Center.

Incorporating BDI Agents into Human-Agent Decision Making Research

Science.gov (United States)

Kamphorst, Bart; van Wissen, Arlette; Dignum, Virginia

Artificial agents, people, institutes and societies all have the ability to make decisions. Decision making as a research area therefore involves a broad spectrum of sciences, ranging from Artificial Intelligence to economics to psychology. The Colored Trails (CT) framework is designed to aid researchers in all fields in examining decision making processes. It is developed both to study interaction between multiple actors (humans or software agents) in a dynamic environment, and to study and model the decision making of these actors. However, agents in the current implementation of CT lack the explanatory power to help understand the reasoning processes involved in decision making. The BDI paradigm that has been proposed in the agent research area to describe rational agents, enables the specification of agents that reason in abstract concepts such as beliefs, goals, plans and events. In this paper, we present CTAPL: an extension to CT that allows BDI software agents that are written in the practical agent programming language 2APL to reason about and interact with a CT environment.

Beneficial Roles of Emotion in Decision Making: Functional Association of Brain and Body

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hideki Ohira

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Though traditional microeconomics has supposed that human decisions are based on logical and exact computation of cost-benefit balances or efficacies, studies in behavioral economics have shown that humans sometimes make seemingly irrational decisions driven by emotions. In our everyday situations, factors related to decisions are complex and which alternative will be the most beneficial is uncertain. In such cases, emotions have been thought adaptive because they can quickly reduce negative alternatives and facilitate fast and effective decision making. Some theorists argued that one of important sources of such emotional drives affecting decision making is bodily responses that are represented in brain regions (Craig, 2009; Damasio, 1994. In this article, empirical evidence for the functional associations of the brain and body accompanying decision making will be shown as follows. (1 Heart rate responses and concentration of inflammatory cytokine (IL-6 can predict acceptance or rejection of an unfair offer in an economical negotiation game, the Ultimatum Game. Activation of the anterior insula mediates relationship between bodily states and decision making. (2 Sympathetic responses reflected by secretion of adrenaline are represented in brain regions such as the midbrain, anterior cingulate cortex, and anterior insula, and furthermore can determine exploration of decision making in a situation where an action-outcome contingency is stochastic and unstable. These findings suggest beneficial roles of emotion and bodily responses in decision making.

PREMISES FOR A MODEL OF DECISION – MAKING ON THE FINANCING OF A PROJECT

OpenAIRE

Popovici Ioana; Tulai Constantin

2010-01-01

The classical theory of finance is based on the premises of rationality and maximizing profits that accompany economic decision-making. Complementarily, the modern theory of behavioral finance studies the effect of emotional and psychological factors of decision- maker on the choice of financing sources for economic activities. In opposition with the classical perspective, the contemporary theory of finance brings up to the stage various aspects of decision making, including elements of strat...

The role of moral utility in decision making: an interdisciplinary framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Tobler, Philippe N; Kalis, Annemarie; Kalenscher, Tobias

2008-12-01

What decisions should we make? Moral values, rules, and virtues provide standards for morally acceptable decisions, without prescribing how we should reach them. However, moral theories do assume that we are, at least in principle, capable of making the right decisions. Consequently, an empirical investigation of the methods and resources we use for making moral decisions becomes relevant. We consider theoretical parallels of economic decision theory and moral utilitarianism and suggest that moral decision making may tap into mechanisms and processes that have originally evolved for nonmoral decision making. For example, the computation of reward value occurs through the combination of probability and magnitude; similar computation might also be used for determining utilitarian moral value. Both nonmoral and moral decisions may resort to intuitions and heuristics. Learning mechanisms implicated in the assignment of reward value to stimuli, actions, and outcomes may also enable us to determine moral value and assign it to stimuli, actions, and outcomes. In conclusion, we suggest that moral capabilities can employ and benefit from a variety of nonmoral decision-making and learning mechanisms.

Interoception Drives Increased Rational Decision-Making in Meditators Playing the Ultimatum Game

OpenAIRE

Kirk, Ulrich; Downar, Jonathan; Montague, P. Read

2011-01-01

Human decision-making is often conceptualized as a competition between cognitive and emotional processes in the brain. Deviations from rational processes are believed to derive from inclusion of emotional factors in decision-making. Here, we investigate whether experienced Buddhist meditators are better equipped to regulate emotional processes compared with controls during economic decision-making in the Ultimatum Game. We show that meditators accept unfair offers on more than half of the tri...

Harm to self outweighs benefit to others in moral decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Volz, Lukas J; Welborn, B Locke; Gobel, Matthias S; Gazzaniga, Michael S; Grafton, Scott T

2017-07-25

How we make decisions that have direct consequences for ourselves and others forms the moral foundation of our society. Whereas economic theory contends that humans aim at maximizing their own gains, recent seminal psychological work suggests that our behavior is instead hyperaltruistic: We are more willing to sacrifice gains to spare others from harm than to spare ourselves from harm. To investigate how such egoistic and hyperaltruistic tendencies influence moral decision making, we investigated trade-off decisions combining monetary rewards and painful electric shocks, administered to the participants themselves or an anonymous other. Whereas we replicated the notion of hyperaltruism (i.e., the willingness to forego reward to spare others from harm), we observed strongly egoistic tendencies in participants' unwillingness to harm themselves for others' benefit. The moral principle guiding intersubject trade-off decision making observed in our study is best described as egoistically biased altruism, with important implications for our understanding of economic and social interactions in our society.

[Rational drug use: an economic approach to decision making].

Science.gov (United States)

Mota, Daniel Marques; da Silva, Marcelo Gurgel Carlos; Sudo, Elisa Cazue; Ortún, Vicente

2008-04-01

The present article approaches rational drug use (RDU) from the economical point of view. The implementation of RDU implies in costs and involves acquisition of knowledge and behavioral changes of several agents. The difficulties in implementing RDU may be due to shortage problems, information asymmetry, lack of information, uncertain clinical decisions, externalities, time-price, incentives for drug prescribers and dispensers, drug prescriber preferences and marginal utility. Health authorities, among other agencies, must therefore regularize, rationalize and control drug use to minimize inefficiency in pharmaceutical care and to prevent exposing the population to unnecessary health risks.

Strategic Control in Decision Making under Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Venkatraman, Vinod; Huettel, Scott

2012-01-01

Complex economic decisions – whether investing money for retirement or purchasing some new electronic gadget – often involve uncertainty about the likely consequences of our choices. Critical for resolving that uncertainty are strategic meta-decision processes, which allow people to simplify complex decision problems, to evaluate outcomes against a variety of contexts, and to flexibly match behavior to changes in the environment. In recent years, substantial research implicates the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC) in the flexible control of behavior. However, nearly all such evidence comes from paradigms involving executive function or response selection, not complex decision making. Here, we review evidence that demonstrates that the dmPFC contributes to strategic control in complex decision making. This region contains a functional topography such that the posterior dmPFC supports response-related control while the anterior dmPFC supports strategic control. Activation in the anterior dmPFC signals changes in how a decision problem is represented, which in turn can shape computational processes elsewhere in the brain. Based on these findings, we argue both for generalized contributions of the dmPFC to cognitive control, and for specific computational roles for its subregions depending upon the task demands and context. We also contend that these strategic considerations are also likely to be critical for decision making in other domains, including interpersonal interactions in social settings. PMID:22487037

Attitudes towards risk in financial decision making

OpenAIRE

Vieira, Pedro Nuno Rino Carreira

2016-01-01

Doutoramento em Gestão Risk and attitudes towards risk play a central role in several areas such as economics and psychology. Interestingly, in economics risk attitudes are addressed under the umbrella of the Utility Theory, while in psychology they are measured by psychometric scales. Risk attitudes in financial decision making are here studied under both approaches with the concern of understanding how they are related. So, I propose a conceptual model that explains risk attitudes, I ...

Strategic Decision-Making and Social Skills: Integrating Behavioral Economics and Social Cognition Research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Johannes Leder

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Strategic decisions are affected by beliefs about the expectations of others and their possible decisions. Thus, strategic decisions are influenced by the social context and by beliefs about other actors’ levels of sophistication. The present study investigated whether strategic decision-making, as measured by the beauty contest game, is associated with social skills, as measured by the Autism Quotient (AQ. In line with our hypothesis, we found that social skills were positively related to successful strategic decision-making. Furthermore, results showed a curvilinear relationship between steps of reasoning in the beauty contest game and social skills, indicating that very high as well as very low scoring individuals on the social skills subscale of the AQ engaged in high-levels of strategic thinking.

A decision-making framework to model environmental flow requirements in oasis areas using Bayesian networks

Science.gov (United States)

Xue, Jie; Gui, Dongwei; Zhao, Ying; Lei, Jiaqiang; Zeng, Fanjiang; Feng, Xinlong; Mao, Donglei; Shareef, Muhammad

2016-09-01

The competition for water resources between agricultural and natural oasis ecosystems has become an increasingly serious problem in oasis areas worldwide. Recently, the intensive extension of oasis farmland has led to excessive exploitation of water discharge, and consequently has resulted in a lack of water supply in natural oasis. To coordinate the conflicts, this paper provides a decision-making framework for modeling environmental flows in oasis areas using Bayesian networks (BNs). Three components are included in the framework: (1) assessment of agricultural economic loss due to meeting environmental flow requirements; (2) decision-making analysis using BNs; and (3) environmental flow decision-making under different water management scenarios. The decision-making criterion is determined based on intersection point analysis between the probability of large-level total agro-economic loss and the ratio of total to maximum agro-economic output by satisfying environmental flows. An application in the Qira oasis area of the Tarim Basin, Northwest China indicates that BNs can model environmental flow decision-making associated with agricultural economic loss effectively, as a powerful tool to coordinate water-use conflicts. In the case study, the environmental flow requirement is determined as 50.24%, 49.71% and 48.73% of the natural river flow in wet, normal and dry years, respectively. Without further agricultural economic loss, 1.93%, 0.66% and 0.43% of more river discharge can be allocated to eco-environmental water demands under the combined strategy in wet, normal and dry years, respectively. This work provides a valuable reference for environmental flow decision-making in any oasis area worldwide.

Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Khrennikova, Polina [School of Management, University of Leicester, University Road Leicester LE1 7RH (United Kingdom)

2012-12-18

The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schroedinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schroedinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

Science.gov (United States)

Khrennikova, Polina

2012-12-01

The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khrennikova, Polina

2012-01-01

The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

Decision making and cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Reyna, Valerie F; Nelson, Wendy L; Han, Paul K; Pignone, Michael P

2015-01-01

We review decision making along the cancer continuum in the contemporary context of informed and shared decision making in which patients are encouraged to take a more active role in their health care. We discuss challenges to achieving informed and shared decision making, including cognitive limitations and emotional factors, but argue that understanding the mechanisms of decision making offers hope for improving decision support. Theoretical approaches to decision making that explain cognition, emotion, and their interaction are described, including classical psychophysical approaches, dual-process approaches that focus on conflicts between emotion versus cognition (or reason), and modern integrative approaches such as fuzzy-trace theory. In contrast to the earlier emphasis on rote use of numerical detail, modern approaches emphasize understanding the bottom-line gist of options (which encompasses emotion and other influences on meaning) and retrieving relevant social and moral values to apply to those gist representations. Finally, research on interventions to support better decision making in clinical settings is reviewed, drawing out implications for future research on decision making and cancer. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

PRINCIPLE OF EFFECTIVE MAKING OF MUTUALLY ACCEPTABLE MULTI-PROJECTION DECISION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olga Nikolaevna Lapaeva

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The principle of effective making of mutually acceptable multi-projection decision in economics is set forth in the article. The principle envisages finding of effective variants by each stakeholder and result making by crossing of individual sets.

The Pashtun behavior economy an analysis of decision making in tribal society

OpenAIRE

Holton, Jeremy W.

2011-01-01

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Little scholarship exists regarding the ways members of conflict societies think about the economic decisions they face, and what information they value as relevant to those decisions. The literature of the emerging field of behavior economics suggest that in uncertain environments, considerable weight may be given to identity and culture factors to make decisions that will affect personal safety, income prospects and self-fulfillment...

[Value-based cancer care. From traditional evidence-based decision making to balanced decision making within frameworks of shared values].

Science.gov (United States)

Palazzo, Salvatore; Filice, Aldo; Mastroianni, Candida; Biamonte, Rosalbino; Conforti, Serafino; Liguori, Virginia; Turano, Salvatore; De Simone, Rosanna; Rovito, Antonio; Manfredi, Caterina; Minardi, Stefano; Vilardo, Emmanuelle; Loizzo, Monica; Oriolo, Carmela

2016-04-01

Clinical decision making in oncology is based so far on the evidence of efficacy from high-quality clinical research. Data collection and analysis from experimental studies provide valuable insight into response rates and progression-free or overall survival. Data processing generates valuable information for medical professionals involved in cancer patient care, enabling them to make objective and unbiased choices. The increased attention of many scientific associations toward a more rational resource consumption in clinical decision making is mirrored in the Choosing Wisely campaign against the overuse or misuse of exams and procedures of little or no benefit for the patient. This cultural movement has been actively promoting care solutions based on the concept of "value". As a result, the value-based decision-making process for cancer care should not be dissociated from economic sustainability and from ethics of the affordability, also given the growing average cost of the most recent cancer drugs. In support of this orientation, the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) has developed innovative and "complex" guidelines based on values, defined as "evidence blocks", with the aim of assisting the medical community in making overall sustainable choices.

Sex and the money--How gender stereotypes modulate economic decision-making: An ERP study.

Science.gov (United States)

Fabre, Eve F; Causse, Mickael; Pesciarelli, Francesca; Cacciari, Cristina

2015-08-01

In the present event-related potential study, we investigated whether and how participants playing the ultimatum game as responders modulate their decisions according to the proposers' stereotypical identity. The proposers' identity was manipulated using occupational role nouns stereotypically marked with gender (e.g., Teacher; Engineer), paired with either feminine or masculine proper names (e.g., Anna; David). Greater FRN amplitudes reflected the early processing of the conflict between the strategic rule (i.e., earning as much money as possible) and ready-to-go responses (i.e., refusing unequal offers and discriminating proposers according to their stereotype). Responders were found to rely on a dual-process system (i.e., automatic and heuristic-based system 1 vs. cognitively costly and deliberative system 2), the P300 amplitude reflecting the switch from a decision making system to another. Greater P300 amplitudes were found in response to both fair and unfair offers and male-stereotyped proposers' offers reflecting an automatic decision making based on heuristics, while lower P300 amplitudes were found in response to 3€ offers and the female-stereotyped proposers' offers reflecting a more deliberative reasoning. Overall, the results indicate that participants were more motivated to engage in a costly deliberative reasoning associated with an increase in acceptation rate when playing with female-stereotyped proposers, who may have induced more positive and emphatic feelings in the participants than did male-stereotyped proposers. Then, we assume that people with an occupation stereotypically marked with female gender and engaged in an economic negotiation may benefit from their occupation at least in the case their counterparts lose their money if the negotiation fails. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An economic decision framework using modeling for improving aquifer remediation design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

James, B.R.; Gwo, J.P.; Toran, L.E.

1995-11-01

Reducing cost is a critical challenge facing environmental remediation today. One of the most effective ways of reducing costs is to improve decision-making. This can range from choosing more cost- effective remediation alternatives (for example, determining whether a groundwater contamination plume should be remediated or not) to improving data collection (for example, determining when data collection should stoop). Uncertainty in site conditions presents a major challenge for effective decision-making. We present a framework for increasing the effectiveness of remedial design decision-making at groundwater contamination sites where there is uncertainty in many parameters that affect remediation design. The objective is to provide an easy-to-use economic framework for making remediation decisions. The presented framework is used to 1) select the best remedial design from a suite of possible ones, 2) estimate if additional data collection is cost-effective, and 3) determine the most important parameters to be sampled. The framework is developed by combining elements from Latin-Hypercube simulation of contaminant transport, economic risk-cost-benefit analysis, and Regional Sensitivity Analysis (RSA)

Culture and the Exercise of Decision Making by Women in West Africa

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Culture and the Exercise of Decision Making by Women in West Africa. This research is grounded in the phenomenon of the simultaneous existence of a legal arsenal of national and international dispositions favorable to the integration of women in economic, political and social decision-making, and weak participation of ...

Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

2010-11-01

A sound approach to rational decision making requires a decision maker to establish decision objectives, identify alternatives, and evaluate those...often violate the axioms of rationality when making decisions under uncertainty. The systematic description of such observations may lead to the...which leads to “anchoring” on the initial value. The fact that individuals have been shown to deviate from rationality when making decisions

Decision Making in Action

Science.gov (United States)

Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication

Lessons learned by (from?) an economist working in medical decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Wakker, Peter P

2008-01-01

This article is a personal account of the author's experiences as an economist working in medical decision making. He discusses the differences between economic decision theory and medical decision making and gives examples of the mutual benefits resulting from interactions. In particular, he discusses the pros and cons of different methods for measuring quality of life (or, as economists would call it, utility), including the standard gamble, the time tradeoff, and the healthy-years equivalent methods.

Reconciliation of Decision-Making Heuristics Based on Decision Trees Topologies and Incomplete Fuzzy Probabilities Sets.

Science.gov (United States)

Doubravsky, Karel; Dohnal, Mirko

2015-01-01

Complex decision making tasks of different natures, e.g. economics, safety engineering, ecology and biology, are based on vague, sparse, partially inconsistent and subjective knowledge. Moreover, decision making economists / engineers are usually not willing to invest too much time into study of complex formal theories. They require such decisions which can be (re)checked by human like common sense reasoning. One important problem related to realistic decision making tasks are incomplete data sets required by the chosen decision making algorithm. This paper presents a relatively simple algorithm how some missing III (input information items) can be generated using mainly decision tree topologies and integrated into incomplete data sets. The algorithm is based on an easy to understand heuristics, e.g. a longer decision tree sub-path is less probable. This heuristic can solve decision problems under total ignorance, i.e. the decision tree topology is the only information available. But in a practice, isolated information items e.g. some vaguely known probabilities (e.g. fuzzy probabilities) are usually available. It means that a realistic problem is analysed under partial ignorance. The proposed algorithm reconciles topology related heuristics and additional fuzzy sets using fuzzy linear programming. The case study, represented by a tree with six lotteries and one fuzzy probability, is presented in details.

Reconciliation of Decision-Making Heuristics Based on Decision Trees Topologies and Incomplete Fuzzy Probabilities Sets.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karel Doubravsky

Full Text Available Complex decision making tasks of different natures, e.g. economics, safety engineering, ecology and biology, are based on vague, sparse, partially inconsistent and subjective knowledge. Moreover, decision making economists / engineers are usually not willing to invest too much time into study of complex formal theories. They require such decisions which can be (rechecked by human like common sense reasoning. One important problem related to realistic decision making tasks are incomplete data sets required by the chosen decision making algorithm. This paper presents a relatively simple algorithm how some missing III (input information items can be generated using mainly decision tree topologies and integrated into incomplete data sets. The algorithm is based on an easy to understand heuristics, e.g. a longer decision tree sub-path is less probable. This heuristic can solve decision problems under total ignorance, i.e. the decision tree topology is the only information available. But in a practice, isolated information items e.g. some vaguely known probabilities (e.g. fuzzy probabilities are usually available. It means that a realistic problem is analysed under partial ignorance. The proposed algorithm reconciles topology related heuristics and additional fuzzy sets using fuzzy linear programming. The case study, represented by a tree with six lotteries and one fuzzy probability, is presented in details.

Climate change decision-making: Model & parameter uncertainties explored

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.; Linville, C.

1995-12-31

A critical aspect of climate change decision-making is uncertainties in current understanding of the socioeconomic, climatic and biogeochemical processes involved. Decision-making processes are much better informed if these uncertainties are characterized and their implications understood. Quantitative analysis of these uncertainties serve to inform decision makers about the likely outcome of policy initiatives, and help set priorities for research so that outcome ambiguities faced by the decision-makers are reduced. A family of integrated assessment models of climate change have been developed at Carnegie Mellon. These models are distinguished from other integrated assessment efforts in that they were designed from the outset to characterize and propagate parameter, model, value, and decision-rule uncertainties. The most recent of these models is ICAM 2.1. This model includes representation of the processes of demographics, economic activity, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate and sea level change and impacts from these changes and policies for emissions mitigation, and adaptation to change. The model has over 800 objects of which about one half are used to represent uncertainty. In this paper we show, that when considering parameter uncertainties, the relative contribution of climatic uncertainties are most important, followed by uncertainties in damage calculations, economic uncertainties and direct aerosol forcing uncertainties. When considering model structure uncertainties we find that the choice of policy is often dominated by model structure choice, rather than parameter uncertainties.

Decision-making: Theory and practice

OpenAIRE

SM Turpin; MA Marais

2004-01-01

This paper compares a number of theoretical models of decision-making with the way in which senior managers make decisions in practice. Six prominent decision-makers were interviewed about their own decision-making style, as well as their use of decision support technology. Significant variation was found in personal decision-making styles. However, some central themes emerged, such as the importance of sensitivity to the decision-making context, attention to the presentation of information, ...

[Decision making in cariology

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verdonschot, E.H.A.M.; Liem, S.L.; Palenstein Helderman, W.H. van

2003-01-01

By conducting an oral examination, during radiographic examination and in treatment planning procedures dentists make numerous decisions. A dentist will be required to make his decisions explicit. Decision trees and decision analyses may play an important role. In a decision analysis, the

The Relations between Decision Making in Social Relationships and Decision Making Styles

Science.gov (United States)

Sari, Enver

2008-01-01

The research reported in this paper aimed to examine the relationships between decisiveness in social relationships, and the decision-making styles of a group of university students and to investigate the contributions of decision-making styles in predicting decisiveness in social relationship (conflict resolution, social relationship selection…

Research on self-esteem in decision-making and decision-making styles in orienteering athletes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eroğlu Başak

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study is to examine the self-esteem in decision making and decision-making styles of orienteering athletes in terms of different variables. 157 male and 43 female orienteering athletes, making a total of 200 athletes that joined the 3rd Level of Turkey Championship in 2015 have participated in this study which is in a survey model. The data collection tools were the Melbourne Decision-making. Quastionnaire I-II and the Personal Information Form which were adapted into Turkish by Deniz (2004. In the data analysis, descriptive statics, anova, t test and Tukey test have been utilized. There is a significant difference between athletes’ marital status, age groups, experiences in orienteering sports and self-esteem in decision making, decision making styles (p<0.05. According to the research results, it has been determined that married orienteering athletes prefer both self-esteem in decision making and vigilance decision-making style more often than the single athletes that mostly prefer procrastination decision-making style. Also, it has been found out that as the athletes’ age and experiences in sports increase, selfesteem and decision-making styles are affected more positively as well.

Using the Situated Clinical Decision-Making framework to guide analysis of nurses' clinical decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Gillespie, Mary

2010-11-01

Nurses' clinical decision-making is a complex process that holds potential to influence the quality of care provided and patient outcomes. The evolution of nurses' decision-making that occurs with experience has been well documented. In addition, literature includes numerous strategies and approaches purported to support development of nurses' clinical decision-making. There has been, however, significantly less attention given to the process of assessing nurses' clinical decision-making and novice clinical educators are often challenged with knowing how to best support nurses and nursing students in developing their clinical decision-making capacity. The Situated Clinical Decision-Making framework is presented for use by clinical educators: it provides a structured approach to analyzing nursing students' and novice nurses' decision-making in clinical nursing practice, assists educators in identifying specific issues within nurses' clinical decision-making, and guides selection of relevant strategies to support development of clinical decision-making. A series of questions is offered as a guide for clinical educators when assessing nurses' clinical decision-making. The discussion presents key considerations related to analysis of various decision-making components, including common sources of challenge and errors that may occur within nurses' clinical decision-making. An exemplar illustrates use of the framework and guiding questions. Implications of this approach for selection of strategies that support development of clinical decision-making are highlighted. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decision making for economic development; A case study of peat and selective alternative energy developments on the island of Newfoundland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rodgers, B. (Dept. of Mines and Energy, St. John' s, NF (Canada))

1994-02-01

This paper highlights the essential issues and concepts that must be understood and addressed in the performance of sound economic decision making in peat production. The desired result is the identification of a practical, yet thorough, approach to economic analysis. The paper's highlights are summarized by the following nine recommendations: clearly determine the objective; clearly determine the perspective; identify project owners; consider all relevant benefits and all relevant costs; focus on net benefits; consider the opportunity cost of alternative opportunities; take care to avoid double counting; understand and evaluate the relevant risks and recognize that economic success requires global competitiveness. 4 figs., 5 tabs.

Strategic control in decision-making under uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Venkatraman, Vinod; Huettel, Scott A

2012-04-01

Complex economic decisions - whether investing money for retirement or purchasing some new electronic gadget - often involve uncertainty about the likely consequences of our choices. Critical for resolving that uncertainty are strategic meta-decision processes, which allow people to simplify complex decision problems, evaluate outcomes against a variety of contexts, and flexibly match behavior to changes in the environment. In recent years, substantial research has implicated the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC) in the flexible control of behavior. However, nearly all such evidence comes from paradigms involving executive function or response selection, not complex decision-making. Here, we review evidence that demonstrates that the dmPFC contributes to strategic control in complex decision-making. This region contains a functional topography such that the posterior dmPFC supports response-related control, whereas the anterior dmPFC supports strategic control. Activation in the anterior dmPFC signals changes in how a decision problem is represented, which in turn can shape computational processes elsewhere in the brain. Based on these findings, we argue for both generalized contributions of the dmPFC to cognitive control, and specific computational roles for its subregions depending upon the task demands and context. We also contend that these strategic considerations are likely to be critical for decision-making in other domains, including interpersonal interactions in social settings. © 2012 The Authors. European Journal of Neuroscience © 2012 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Estimating preference parameters in individual financial decision-making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Teppa, F.

2003-01-01

This thesis deals with individual financial decision making, that is the process of choosing a preferred option from among a set of alternatives. Individual behavior has been traditionally studied in economics by means of the rational-choice model, which assumes that agents maximize some objective

Can Neuroscience Assist Us in Constructing Better Patterns of Economic Decision-Making?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

George Lăzăroiu

2017-10-01

Full Text Available We draw on outstanding research (Sanfey et al., 2006; McCabe, 2008; Bernheim, 2009; Camerer, 2013; Radu and McClure, 2013; Declerck and Boone, 2016 to substantiate that neuroeconomics covers the investigation of the biological microfoundations of economic cognition and economic conduct, attempts to prove that a superior grasp of how choices are made brings about superior expectations regarding which options are selected, preserves the strictness of economic analysis in defining value-based decision, and associates imaging techniques with economic pattern to explain how individuals decide on a strategy taking into account various possible choices. Neuroeconomics is adequately prepared to regulate the notion of how choices are determined by mental states. The position that will be elaborated in this article is that neuroeconomic patterns are enabled and enhanced in descriptive capacity by psychological outcomes and substantiated in biological processes. Advancement in neuroeconomics takes place when outcomes from distinct procedures are coherent with an ordinary mechanistic clarification of what generates choice, construed by a computational pattern. We will develop this point further by proving that economics improves the concerted effort of neuroeconomics by using its observations in the various results that may stem from the planned and market interplays of diverse participants, and via a series of accurate, explicit, mathematical patterns to construe such interplays and results. Neuroeconomics experiments employ a mixture of brain imaging/stimulation tests advanced in the cognitive neurosciences and microeconomic systems/game theory tests advanced in the economic sciences. Our analyses indicate that neuroeconomics aims to employ the supplementary input gained from brain investigations, associated with the decision maker’s selection, with the purpose of better grasping the cogitation process and to utilize the outcomes to enhance economic

[Interoception and decision-making].

Science.gov (United States)

Ohira, Hideki

2015-02-01

We sometimes make decisions relying not necessarily on deliberative thoughts but on intuitive and emotional processes in uncertain situations. The somatic marker hypothesis proposed by Damasio argued that interoception, which means bodily responses such as sympathetic activity, can be represented in the insula and anterior cingulate cortex and can play critical roles in decision-making. Though this hypothesis has been criticized in its theoretical and empirical aspects, recent studies are expanding the hypothesis to elucidate multiple bodily responses including autonomic, endocrine, and immune activities that affect decision-making. In addition, cumulative findings suggest that the anterior insula where the inner model of interoception is represented can act as an interface between the brain and body in decision-making. This article aims to survey recent findings on the brain-body interplays underlying decision-making, and to propose hypotheses on the significance of the body in decision-making.

Can quantum approaches benefit biology of decision making?

Science.gov (United States)

Takahashi, Taiki

2017-11-01

Human decision making has recently been focused in the emerging fields of quantum decision theory and neuroeconomics. The former discipline utilizes mathematical formulations developed in quantum theory, while the latter combines behavioral economics and neurobiology. In this paper, the author speculates on possible future directions unifying the two approaches, by contrasting the roles of quantum theory in the birth of molecular biology of the gene. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of approach and withdrawal motivation on interactive economic decisions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Harle, Katia; Sanfey, A.G.

2010-01-01

Although recent economic models of human decision making have recognised the role of emotion as an important biasing factor, the impact of incidental emotion on decisions has remained poorly explored. To address this question, we jointly explored the role of emotional valence (i.e., positive vs.

THE ROLE OF BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS IN EXPLAINING CONSUMPTION DECISION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mihaela Andreea STROE

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The new economic approach starts from the idea that the individual does not need food, but feels the need to feed, or do not require newspapers, but feels the need of information. In this way, those who changes are not human preferences, but the way we satisfy them. At this stage of the paper, we explain the inconsistency in consumer preferences and the exceptions to the standard theory by making light upon what is called in behavioral economics: the effects of property, loss aversion and framing effects. In which concerns the standard economic model, it seems that there are discrepancies between objective measures of sources of comfort / discomfort and measures reported subjective sensations. Many defenders of classical model would argue that the measures are not reported subjective feelings of economic phenomena and therefore are not of interest to economists. However, when such feelings and sensations affect or may affect future decisions, things become relevant for the economy. Limited Rationality implies both that the agent is imperfectly informed decision-making in a complex and dynamic environment, and a limited ability processing.

Social Context Effects on Decision-Making: A Neurobiological Approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M. Stallen (Mirre)

2013-01-01

textabstractThis thesis explores how social context influences the neurobiological processes underlying decision-making. To this end, this research takes an interdisciplinary approach, combining methods and insights from Psychology, Marketing, Economics, and Neuroscience. In particular, behavioural

Decision-Making Tool for Cost-Efficient and Environmentally Friendly Wood Mobilisation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matevž Triplat

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Background and Purpose: With development of forest management technologies, the efficiency of wood production was significantly improved, and thus the impact on forests has changed as well. The article presents a practical decision-making tool for selection of most suitable harvesting system, considering given terrain as well as expected soil conditions on harvesting sites. The decision-making tool should support cost-efficient and environmentally friendly mobilisation of wood. Materials and Methods: The presented decision-making tool is based on ground bearing capacities (relevant environmental parameter and nominal ground pressure (harvesting system characteristics. Soil and terrain (slope characteristics were taken into account for selection of the most suitable harvesting system. Three-step methodological approach was suggested, where soil and terrain conditions were defined in first step, while harvesting system were described using wood process charts (“functiogramms” in second step. In final step ecological and technological requirements were matched. Results: To exemplify the three-step methodology, a decision-making tool was prepared for the three selected harvesting systems. The proposed harvesting systems differ in technological, ecological and economic aspects, but each is limited by at least one of the aspect. Conclusions: The decision-making tool in combination with the presented wood process charts (“functiogramms” can simplify and facilitate forest production planning, although it can also be used in case of unforeseen event e.g. changing of soil moisture, machinery failure and insufficient current capacities. Considering the envisaged quantities and types of forest wooden assortments, it is possible to use the decision-making tool for a basic selection of most appropriate harvesting systems. The main idea behind the suggested three step methodological approach is that forest workers can prepare individual decision-making

Exposing ecological and economic costs of the research-implementation gap and compromises in decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Kareksela, Santtu; Moilanen, Atte; Ristaniemi, Olli; Välivaara, Reima; Kotiaho, Janne S

2018-02-01

The frequently discussed gap between conservation science and practice is manifest in the gap between spatial conservation prioritization plans and their implementation. We analyzed the research-implementation gap of one zoning case by comparing results of a spatial prioritization analysis aimed at avoiding ecological impact of peat mining in a regional zoning process with the final zoning plan. We examined the relatively complex planning process to determine the gaps among research, zoning, and decision making. We quantified the ecological costs of the differing trade-offs between ecological and socioeconomic factors included in the different zoning suggestions by comparing the landscape-level loss of ecological features (species occurrences, habitat area, etc.) between the different solutions for spatial allocation of peat mining. We also discussed with the scientists and planners the reasons for differing zoning suggestions. The implemented plan differed from the scientists suggestion in that its focus was individual ecological features rather than all the ecological features for which there were data; planners and decision makers considered effects of peat mining on areas not included in the prioritization analysis; zoning was not truly seen as a resource-allocation process and not emphasized in general minimizing ecological losses while satisfying economic needs (peat-mining potential); and decision makers based their prioritization of sites on site-level information showing high ecological value and on single legislative factors instead of finding a cost-effective landscape-level solution. We believe that if the zoning and decision-making processes are very complex, then the usefulness of science-based prioritization tools is likely to be reduced. Nevertheless, we found that high-end tools were useful in clearly exposing trade-offs between conservation and resource utilization. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

A fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making model for trigeneration system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Jiangjiang; Jing Youyin; Zhang Chunfa; Shi Guohua; Zhang Xutao

2008-01-01

The decision making for trigeneration systems is a compositive project and it should be evaluated and compared in a multi-criteria analysis method. This paper presents a fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making model (FMCDM) for trigeneration systems selection and evaluation. The multi-criteria decision-making methods are briefly reviewed combining the general decision-making process. Then the fuzzy set theory, weighting method and the FMCDM model are presented. Finally, several kinds of trigeneration systems, whose dynamical sources are, respectively stirling engine, gas turbine, gas engine and solid oxide fuel cell, are compared and evaluated with a separate generation system. The case for selecting the optimal trigeneration system applied to a residential building is assessed from the technical, economical, environmental and social aspects, and the FMCDM model combining analytic hierarchical process is applied to the trigeneration case to demonstrate the decision-making process and effectiveness of proposed model. The results show that the gas engine plus lithium bromide absorption water heater/chiller unit for the residential building is the best scheme in the five options

Simplifying decision making: a practical framework

OpenAIRE

Chaudhry, Muhammad Shirjeel Riaz; Sidek, Mohmad Safhree

2014-01-01

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This thesis proposes a decision-making model based on PESTEL (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal) analysis, AHP (Analytical Hierarchical Process), and game theory. The case study used to demonstrate the concept is a 2013 Malaysian crisis wherein foreign intruders occupied a village in Sabah state. The Malaysian government, ultimately, launched a military operation to clear the area. The focus of our st...

Organizational decision making

OpenAIRE

Grandori, Anna

2015-01-01

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This thesis develops a heuristic approach to organizational decision-making by synthesizing the classical, neo-classical and contingency approaches to organization theory. The conceptual framework developed also integrates the rational and cybernetic approaches with cognitive processes underlying the decision-making process. The components of the approach address the role of environment in organizational decision-maki...

Teachers' Grading Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Isnawati, Ida; Saukah, Ali

2017-01-01

This study investigated teachers' grading decision making, focusing on their beliefs underlying their grading decision making, their grading practices and assessment types, and factors they considered in grading decision making. Two teachers from two junior high schools applying different curriculum policies in grade reporting in Indonesian…

Hospice decision making: diagnosis makes a difference.

Science.gov (United States)

Waldrop, Deborah P; Meeker, Mary Ann

2012-10-01

This study explored the process of decision making about hospice enrollment and identified factors that influence the timing of that decision. This study employed an exploratory, descriptive, cross-sectional design and was conducted using qualitative methods. In-depth in-person semistructured interviews were conducted with 36 hospice patients and 55 caregivers after 2 weeks of hospice care. The study was guided by Janis and Mann's conflict theory model (CTM) of decision making. Qualitative data analysis involved a directed content analysis using concepts from the CTM. A model of hospice enrollment decision making is presented. Concepts from the CTM (appraisal, surveying and weighing the alternatives, deliberations, adherence) were used as an organizing framework to illustrate the dynamics. Distinct differences were found by diagnosis (cancer vs. other chronic illness, e.g., heart and lung diseases) during the pre-encounter phase or before the hospice referral but no differences emerged during the post-encounter phase. Differences in decision making by diagnosis suggest the need for research about effective means for tailored communication in end-of-life decision making by type of illness. Recognition that decision making about hospice admission varies is important for clinicians who aim to provide person-centered and family-focused care.

Use of classical criterions of a decision making for choice of measures on decrease of economic damage from nuclear and radiation accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rylov, M.I.; Kamynov, Sh.V.; Mozhaev, A.S.; Anisimov, N.A.; Nikitin, V.S.

2004-01-01

Application of classical criteria of decision making for choice of measures on the decrease of economic damage from possible nuclear and radiation accidents during spent fuel unloading from nuclear submarines and storage in the process of their utilization was demonstrated. Economic damage was chosen as optimization index, three versions of possible accidents and limited number of measures on the decrease of their effect were treated for illustration of the suggested approach. On the base of analysis of classical criteria the optimal strategy for decrease of economic damage was chosen [ru

Decision-making: Theory and practice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SM Turpin

2004-12-01

Full Text Available This paper compares a number of theoretical models of decision-making with the way in which senior managers make decisions in practice. Six prominent decision-makers were interviewed about their own decision-making style, as well as their use of decision support technology. Significant variation was found in personal decision-making styles. However, some central themes emerged, such as the importance of sensitivity to the decision-making context, attention to the presentation of information, and the use of intuition. In terms of the use of decision support technology, the use of self-help tools, such as office software, was clearly favoured.

Economic decisions for others: an exception to loss aversion law.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Flavia Mengarelli

Full Text Available In everyday life, people often make decisions on behalf of others. The current study investigates whether risk preferences of decision-makers differ when the reference point is no longer their own money but somebody else money. Thirty four healthy participants performed three different monetary risky choices tasks by making decisions for oneself and for another unknown person. Results showed that loss aversion bias was significantly reduced when participants were choosing on behalf of another person compared to when choosing for themselves. The influence of emotions like regret on decision-making may explain these results. We discuss the importance of the sense of responsibility embodied in the emotion of regret in modulating economic decisions for self but not for others. Moreover, our findings are consistent with the Risk-as-feelings hypothesis, suggesting that self-other asymmetrical behavior is due to the extent the decision-maker is affected by the real and emotional consequences of his/her decision.

Economic decisions for others: an exception to loss aversion law.

Science.gov (United States)

Mengarelli, Flavia; Moretti, Laura; Faralla, Valeria; Vindras, Philippe; Sirigu, Angela

2014-01-01

In everyday life, people often make decisions on behalf of others. The current study investigates whether risk preferences of decision-makers differ when the reference point is no longer their own money but somebody else money. Thirty four healthy participants performed three different monetary risky choices tasks by making decisions for oneself and for another unknown person. Results showed that loss aversion bias was significantly reduced when participants were choosing on behalf of another person compared to when choosing for themselves. The influence of emotions like regret on decision-making may explain these results. We discuss the importance of the sense of responsibility embodied in the emotion of regret in modulating economic decisions for self but not for others. Moreover, our findings are consistent with the Risk-as-feelings hypothesis, suggesting that self-other asymmetrical behavior is due to the extent the decision-maker is affected by the real and emotional consequences of his/her decision.

Calm and smart? A selective review of meditation effects on decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Sai; Yao, Ziqing; Wei, Jaixin; Yu, Rongjun

2015-01-01

Over the past two decades, there has been a growing interest in the use of meditation to improve cognitive performance, emotional balance, and well-being. As a consequence, research into the psychological effects and neural mechanisms of meditation has been accumulating. Whether and how meditation affects decision making is not yet clear. Here, we review evidence from behavioral and neuroimaging studies and summarize the effects of meditation on social and non-social economic decision making. Research suggests that meditation modulates brain activities associated with cognitive control, emotion regulation and empathy, and leads to improved non-social and social decision making. Accordingly, we propose an integrative model in which cognitive control, emotional regulation, and empathic concern mediate the effects of meditation on decision making. This model provides insights into the mechanisms by which meditation affects the decision making process. More evidence is needed to test our explanatory model and to explore the function of specific brain areas and their interactive effects on decision making during meditation training.

Decision-making in electrical appliance use in the home

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamamoto, Yoshihiro; Suzuki, Akihiko; Fuwa, Yasuhiro; Sato, Tomohiro

2008-01-01

This paper presents the results of a survey as well as an argument from the viewpoint of behavioral economics with the aim of clarifying how consumers make decisions about electrical appliance use in the home. A survey of consumers showed that most have little awareness of the energy efficiency of appliances, the price of the services produced by electrical appliances, or electricity rates. These findings indicate that price does not function as a signal in electricity consumption through electrical appliance use. Rather, we found that consumer decision-making in electricity consumption is dependent on the characteristics of the particular electrical appliances they use. Additionally, we argue that the payment system for home electricity consumption plays an important role in decision-making, causing biases due to aspects of human psychology discussed here in terms of satisficing and heuristics, payment decoupling, and budgeting. We conclude that decision-making about electrical appliance use and electricity consumption in the home is not always rational and is affected both by the particular characteristics of appliances and the payment system for electricity consumption along with human psychology

Human factors influencing decision making

OpenAIRE

Jacobs, Patricia A.

1998-01-01

This report supplies references and comments on literature that identifies human factors influencing decision making, particularly military decision making. The literature has been classified as follows (the classes are not mutually exclusive): features of human information processing; decision making models which are not mathematical models but rather are descriptive; non- personality factors influencing decision making; national characteristics influencing decision makin...

Dementia, Decision Making, and Capacity.

Science.gov (United States)

Darby, R Ryan; Dickerson, Bradford C

After participating in this activity, learners should be better able to:• Assess the neuropsychological literature on decision making and the medical and legal assessment of capacity in patients with dementia• Identify the limitations of integrating findings from decision-making research into capacity assessments for patients with dementia ABSTRACT: Medical and legal professionals face the challenge of assessing capacity and competency to make medical, legal, and financial decisions in dementia patients with impaired decision making. While such assessments have classically focused on the capacity for complex reasoning and executive functions, research in decision making has revealed that motivational and metacognitive processes are also important. We first briefly review the neuropsychological literature on decision making and on the medical and legal assessment of capacity. Next, we discuss the limitations of integrating findings from decision-making research into capacity assessments, including the group-to-individual inference problem, the unclear role of neuroimaging in capacity assessments, and the lack of capacity measures that integrate important facets of decision making. Finally, we present several case examples where we attempt to demonstrate the potential benefits and important limitations of using decision-making research to aid in capacity determinations.

Culinary Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Curtis, Rob

1987-01-01

Advises directors of ways to include day care workers in the decision-making process. Enumerates benefits of using staff to help focus and direct changes in the day care center and discusses possible pitfalls in implementation of a collective decision-making approach to management. (NH)

Defining decision making: a qualitative study of international experts' views on surgical trainee decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Rennie, Sarah C; van Rij, Andre M; Jaye, Chrystal; Hall, Katherine H

2011-06-01

Decision making is a key competency of surgeons; however, how best to assess decisions and decision makers is not clearly established. The aim of the present study was to identify criteria that inform judgments about surgical trainees' decision-making skills. A qualitative free text web-based survey was distributed to recognized international experts in Surgery, Medical Education, and Cognitive Research. Half the participants were asked to identify features of good decisions, characteristics of good decision makers, and essential factors for developing good decision-making skills. The other half were asked to consider these areas in relation to poor decision making. Template analysis of free text responses was performed. Twenty-nine (52%) experts responded to the survey, identifying 13 categories for judging a decision and 14 for judging a decision maker. Twelve features/characteristics overlapped (considered, informed, well timed, aware of limitations, communicated, knowledgeable, collaborative, patient-focused, flexible, able to act on the decision, evidence-based, and coherent). Fifteen categories were generated for essential factors leading to development of decision-making skills that fall into three major themes (personal qualities, training, and culture). The categories compiled from the perspectives of good/poor were predominantly the inverse of each other; however, the weighting given to some categories varied. This study provides criteria described by experts when considering surgical decisions, decision makers, and development of decision-making skills. It proposes a working definition of a good decision maker. Understanding these criteria will enable clinical teachers to better recognize and encourage good decision-making skills and identify poor decision-making skills for remediation.

Decision making in the digital age: the nuclear industry response

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Edelman, G. [Energy Group, Kepner-Tregoe, Inc. (Canada)

2002-07-01

Ten years ago, the consequences of a prolonged outage - or of choosing a costly alternative - could usually be recovered from the ratepayers without major difficulty. But today, as in the rest of industrial America, poorly crafted decisions have very real economic consequences. This paper discusses the decision making process within the nuclear industry in the age of industry deregulation.

Decision making in the digital age: the nuclear industry response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Edelman, G.

2002-01-01

Ten years ago, the consequences of a prolonged outage - or of choosing a costly alternative - could usually be recovered from the ratepayers without major difficulty. But today, as in the rest of industrial America, poorly crafted decisions have very real economic consequences. This paper discusses the decision making process within the nuclear industry in the age of industry deregulation

Climate Information Needs for Financial Decision Making

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Higgins, Paul [American Meteorological Society, Washington, DC (United States)

2013-11-19

Climate Information Needs for Financial Decision Making (Final Report) This Department of Energy workshop award (grant #DE-SC0008480) provided primary support for the American Meteorological Society’s study on climate information needs for financial decision making. The goal of this study was to help advance societal decision making by examining the implications of climate variability and change on near-term financial investments. We explored four key topics: 1) the conditions and criteria that influence returns on investment of major financial decisions, 2) the climate sensitivity of financial decisions, 3) climate information needs of financial decision makers, and 4) potential new mechanisms to promote collaboration between scientists and financial decision makers. Better understanding of these four topics will help scientists provide the most useful information and enable financial decision makers to use scientific information most effectively. As a result, this study will enable leaders in business and government to make well-informed choices that help maximize long-term economic success and social wellbeing in the United States The outcomes of the study include a workshop, which brought together leaders from the scientific and financial decision making communities, a publication of the study report, and a public briefing of the results to the policy community. In addition, we will present the results to the scientific community at the AMS Annual Meeting in February, 2014. The study results were covered well by the media including Bloomberg News and E&E News. Upon request, we also briefed the Office of Science Technology Policy (OSTP) and the Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) on the outcomes. We presented the results to the policy community through a public briefing in December on Capitol Hill. The full report is publicly available at www.ametsoc.org/cin. Summary of Key Findings The United States invests roughly $1.5 trillion U.S. dollars (USD) in

Value Application in Radiation Protection Decision-Making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bombaerts, G.; Hardeman, F.; Braeckman, J.

2001-01-01

Full text: The radiation protection (RP) community is looking for a sound philosophical basis to support their actions. The utilitarianism-egalitarianism debate of the nineties is a reference here. These ethical theories are well elaborated in philosophy throughout the past ages, making it very difficult for RP decision-makers to use these systems in all their sensitivities. Furthermore, the debate's polarisation obstructs dealing with the essence: how can concerned people be given their say? A theory of core values gives a firm basis. Cost Benefit Analysis is another common decision-making tool in RP, often reducing values to economic numbers when it is used. A 'collective willingness to pay (CWP) principle' is proposed and it avoids this reduction. The new principle can be brought in accordance with risk perception analysis. The existing cost-effectiveness differences in RP measures will be illustrated and explained. Nevertheless, there are limitations to CWP applications. A third philosophical foundation (post-materialism) is presented to state that decision-making procedures have to balance between top-down functionality and bottom-up participation. To make sure the latter has full play, the RP officers have to put out special receptors to detect the societal important core values. This mechanism is illustrated with a few examples (Doel, Belgium; ...). (author)

Great expectations: neural computations underlying the use of social norms in decision-making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chang, L.J.; Sanfey, A.G.

2011-01-01

Social expectations play a critical role in everyday decision-making. However, their precise neuro-computational role in the decision process remains unknown. Here we adopt a decision neuroscience framework by combining methods and theories from psychology, economics and neuroscience to outline a

Great expectations: neural computations underlying the use of social norms in decision-making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chang, L.J.; Sanfey, A.G.

2013-01-01

Social expectations play a critical role in everyday decision-making. However, their precise neuro-computational role in the decision process remains unknown. Here we adopt a decision neuroscience framework by combining methods and theories from psychology, economics and neuroscience to outline a

Individual decision making, group decision making and deliberation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radovanović Bojana

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Each of us makes a number of decisions, from the less important to those with far-reaching consequences. As members of different groups, we are also actors of group decision making. In order to make a rational decision, a choice-making procedure must satisfy a number of assumptions (conditions of rationality. In addition, when it comes to group decisions, those procedures should also be “fair.” However, it is not possible to define a procedure of choice-making that would transform individual orders of alternatives based on preferences of perfectly rational individuals into a single social order and still meet conditions of rationality and ethics. The theory of deliberative democracy appeared in response to the impossibility of Social Choice theory. The basic assumption of deliberative democracy is that individuals adjust their preferences taking into account interests of the community. They are open for discussion with other group members and are willing to change their attitudes in order to achieve common interests. Ideally, group members come to an agreement during public discussion (deliberation. Still, this concept cannot completely over­come all the difficulties posed by the theory of social choice. Specifically, there is no solution for strategic and manipulative behavior of individuals. Also, the concept of deliberative democracy faces certain problems particular to this approach, such as, to name but a few, problems with the establishment of equality of participants in the debate and their motivation, as well as problems with the organization of public hearings. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 47009: Evropske integracije i društveno-ekonomske promene privrede Srbije na putu ka EU i br. 179015: Izazovi i perspektive strukturnih promena u Srbiji: Strateški pravci ekonomskog razvoja i usklađivanje sa zahtevima EU

Women's autonomy in household decision-making: a demographic study in Nepal.

Science.gov (United States)

Acharya, Dev R; Bell, Jacqueline S; Simkhada, Padam; van Teijlingen, Edwin R; Regmi, Pramod R

2010-07-15

How socio-demographic factors influence women's autonomy in decision making on health care including purchasing goods and visiting family and relatives are very poorly studied in Nepal. This study aims to explore the links between women's household position and their autonomy in decision making. We used Nepal Demographic Health Survey (NDHS) 2006, which provided data on ever married women aged 15-49 years (n = 8257). The data consists of women's four types of household decision making; own health care, making major household purchases, making purchase for daily household needs and visits to her family or relatives. A number of socio-demographic variables were used in multivariable logistic regression to examine the relationship of these variables to all four types of decision making. Women's autonomy in decision making is positively associated with their age, employment and number of living children. Women from rural area and Terai region have less autonomy in decision making in all four types of outcome measure. There is a mixed variation in women's autonomy in the development region across all outcome measures. Western women are more likely to make decision in own health care (1.2-1.6), while they are less likely to purchase daily household needs (0.6-0.9). Women's increased education is positively associated with autonomy in own health care decision making (p make decision in own healthcare. Women from rural area and Terai region needs specific empowerment programme to enable them to be more autonomous in the household decision making. Women's autonomy by education, wealth quintile and development region needs a further social science investigation to observe the variations within each stratum. A more comprehensive strategy can enable women to access community resources, to challenge traditional norms and to access economic resources. This will lead the women to be more autonomous in decision making in the due course.

Aging and the neuroeconomics of decision-making: a review

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brown, S.B.R.E.; Ridderinkhof, K.R.

2009-01-01

Neuroeconomics refers to a combination of paradigms derived from neuroscience, psychology, and economics for the study of decision making and is an area that has received considerable scientific attention in the recent literature. Using realistic laboratory tasks, researchers seek to study the

Decision Making in the Airplane

Science.gov (United States)

Orasanu, Judith; Shafto, Michael G. (Technical Monitor)

1995-01-01

The Importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful In improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that

Functional specialization of the primate frontal cortex during decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Daeyeol; Rushworth, Matthew F S; Walton, Mark E; Watanabe, Masataka; Sakagami, Masamichi

2007-08-01

Economic theories of decision making are based on the principle of utility maximization, and reinforcement-learning theory provides computational algorithms that can be used to estimate the overall reward expected from alternative choices. These formal models not only account for a large range of behavioral observations in human and animal decision makers, but also provide useful tools for investigating the neural basis of decision making. Nevertheless, in reality, decision makers must combine different types of information about the costs and benefits associated with each available option, such as the quality and quantity of expected reward and required work. In this article, we put forward the hypothesis that different subdivisions of the primate frontal cortex may be specialized to focus on different aspects of dynamic decision-making processes. In this hypothesis, the lateral prefrontal cortex is primarily involved in maintaining the state representation necessary to identify optimal actions in a given environment. In contrast, the orbitofrontal cortex and the anterior cingulate cortex might be primarily involved in encoding and updating the utilities associated with different sensory stimuli and alternative actions, respectively. These cortical areas are also likely to contribute to decision making in a social context.

Decision Making Styles and Progress in Occupational Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Phillips, Susan D.; And Others

1984-01-01

Examined the role of rational, intuitive, and dependent decisional strategies in facilitating decisions about postcollege occupation among college students (N=71). Results indicated that the use of a dependent decision-making style was the single most powerful predictor of progress. (LLL)

THE MAKING OF DECISION MAKING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leonardo Yuji Tamura

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Quantum Electronics was a Brazilian startup in the 1990's that was acquired by an American equity fund in 2012. They are currently the largest manufacturer of vehicle tracking and infotainment systems. The company was founded by three college friends, who are currently executives at the company: Camilo Santos, Pedro Barbosa and Luana Correa. Edward Hutter was sent by the equity fund to take over the company’s finances, but is having trouble making organizational decisions with his colleagues. As a consultant, I was called to help them improve their decision making process and project prioritization. I adapted and deployed our firm's methodology, but, in the end, its adequacy is shown to be very much in question. The author of this case study intends to explore how actual organizational decisions rely on different decision models and their assumptions, .as well as demonstrate that a decision model is neither absolutely good nor bad as its quality is context dependent.

Rule-based decision making model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sirola, Miki

1998-01-01

A rule-based decision making model is designed in G2 environment. A theoretical and methodological frame for the model is composed and motivated. The rule-based decision making model is based on object-oriented modelling, knowledge engineering and decision theory. The idea of safety objective tree is utilized. Advanced rule-based methodologies are applied. A general decision making model 'decision element' is constructed. The strategy planning of the decision element is based on e.g. value theory and utility theory. A hypothetical process model is built to give input data for the decision element. The basic principle of the object model in decision making is division in tasks. Probability models are used in characterizing component availabilities. Bayes' theorem is used to recalculate the probability figures when new information is got. The model includes simple learning features to save the solution path. A decision analytic interpretation is given to the decision making process. (author)

Ethical Decision Making

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lauesen, Linne Marie

2012-01-01

of the interaction between a corporation and its stakeholders. Methodology/approach: This paper offers a theoretical 'Organic Stakeholder Model' based on decision making theory, risk assessment and adaption to a rapidly changing world combined with appropriate stakeholder theory for ethical purposes in decision...... applicable): The Model is based on case studies, but the limited scope of the length of the paper did not leave room to show the empirical evidence, but only the theoretical study. Originality / value of a paper: The model offers a new way of combining risk management with ethical decision-making processes...... by the inclusion of multiple stakeholders. The conceptualization of the model enhances business ethics in decision making by managing and balancing stakeholder concerns with the same concerns as the traditional risk management models does – for the sake of the wider social responsibilities of the businesses...

Comparative approaches to studying strategy: towards an evolutionary account of primate decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Brosnan, Sarah F; Beran, Michael J; Parrish, Audrey E; Price, Sara A; Wilson, Bart J

2013-07-18

How do primates, humans included, deal with novel problems that arise in interactions with other group members? Despite much research regarding how animals and humans solve social problems, few studies have utilized comparable procedures, outcomes, or measures across different species. Thus, it is difficult to piece together the evolution of decision making, including the roots from which human economic decision making emerged. Recently, a comparative body of decision making research has emerged, relying largely on the methodology of experimental economics in order to address these questions in a cross-species fashion. Experimental economics is an ideal method of inquiry for this approach. It is a well-developed method for distilling complex decision making involving multiple conspecifics whose decisions are contingent upon one another into a series of simple decision choices. This allows these decisions to be compared across species and contexts. In particular, our group has used this approach to investigate coordination in New World monkeys, Old World monkeys, and great apes (including humans), using identical methods. We find that in some cases there are remarkable continuities of outcome, as when some pairs in all species solved a coordination game, the Assurance game. On the other hand, we also find that these similarities in outcomes are likely driven by differences in underlying cognitive mechanisms. New World monkeys required exogenous information about their partners' choices in order to solve the task, indicating that they were using a matching strategy. Old World monkeys, on the other hand, solved the task without exogenous cues, leading to investigations into what mechanisms may be underpinning their responses (e.g., reward maximization, strategy formation, etc.). Great apes showed a strong experience effect, with cognitively enriched apes following what appears to be a strategy. Finally, humans were able to solve the task with or without exogenous cues

Cognitive-emotional decision making (CEDM): a framework of patient medical decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Power, Tara E; Swartzman, Leora C; Robinson, John W

2011-05-01

Assistance for patients faced with medical decisions has largely focussed on the clarification of information and personal values. Our aim is to draw on the decision research describing the role of emotion in combination with health behaviour models to provide a framework for conceptualizing patient decisions. A review of the psychological and medical decision making literature concerned with the role of emotion/affect in decision making and health behaviours. Emotion plays an influential role in decision making. Both current and anticipated emotions play a motivational role in choice. Amalgamating these findings with that of Leventhal's (1970) SRM provide a framework for thinking about the influence of emotion on a patient medical decision. Our framework suggests that a patient must cope with four sets of elements. The first two relate to the need to manage the cognitive and emotional aspects of the health threat. The second set relate to the management of the cognitive and emotional elements of the decision, itself. The framework provides a way for practitioners and researchers to frame thinking about a patient medical decision in order to assist the patient in clarifying decisional priorities. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Collective Decision Making as the Actualization of Decision Potential

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrej Ule

2009-12-01

Full Text Available This paper presents some characteristics and dilemmas of collective decision making. Collective decision making could be presented as the process of successive crystallization of dominant alternatives under the influence of different decision contexts from primary given decision potentials. This process is presented as the many-phased process of the acting of contextually dependent “energizing factors” of the collective decision making on the “attractiveness matrix” of outcomes of collective decisions. The attractiveness matrix determines the attractiveness for each alternative of decision, and the most attractive alternative in the given situation presents the rational decision in the given situation. In the final phase of decision making holds a context which gets a simplified attractiveness matrix. It corresponds to the common decision for one of the alternatives.

The Use of Economic Evidence to Inform Drug Pricing Decisions in Jordan.

Science.gov (United States)

Hammad, Eman A

2016-01-01

Drug pricing is an example of a priority setting in a developing country with official requirements for the use of cost-effectiveness (CE) evidence. To describe the role of economic evidence in drug pricing decisions in Jordan. A prospective review of all applications submitted between November 2013 and May 2015 to the Jordan Food and Drug Association's drug pricing committee was carried out. All applications that involved requests for CE evidence were reviewed. Details on the type of study, the extent, and whether the evidence submitted was part of the formal deliberations were extracted and summarized. The committee reviewed a total of 1608 drug pricing applications over the period of the study. CE evidence was requested in only 11 applications. The submitted evidence was of limited use to the committee due to concerns about quality, relevance of studies, and lack of pharmacoeconomic expertise. There were also no clear rules describing how CE would inform pricing decisions. Limited local data and health economic experience were the main barriers to the use of economic evidence in drug pricing decisions in Jordan. In addition, there are no official rules describing the elements and process by which the CE evidence would inform drug pricing decisions. This study summarized accumulated observations for the current use of economic evaluations and evidence-based decision making in Jordan. Recommendations have been proposed to applicants and key decision makers to enhance the role of economic evidence in influencing health policies and evidence-based decision making across priority settings. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tools for collaborative decision-making

CERN Document Server

Zaraté, Pascale

2013-01-01

Decision-making has evolved recently thanks to the introduction of information and communication technologies in many organizations, which has led to new kinds of decision-making processes, called "collaborative decision-making", at the organizational and cognitive levels. This book looks at the development of the decision-making process in organizations. Decision-aiding and its paradigm of problem solving are defined, showing how decision-makers now need to work in a cooperative way. Definitions of cooperation and associated concepts such as collaboration and coordination are given and a framework of cooperative decision support systems is presented, including intelligent DSS, cooperative knowledge-based systems, workflow, group support systems, collaborative engineering, integrating with a collaborative decision-making model in part or being part of global projects. Several models and experimental studies are also included showing that these new processes have to be supported by new types of tools, several ...

Calm and Smart? A Selective Review on Effects of Meditation on Decision Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sai eSun

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Over the past two decades, there has been a growing interest in the use of meditation to improve cognitive performance, emotional balance, and well-being. As a consequence, research into the psychological effects and neural mechanisms of meditation has been accumulating. Whether and how meditation affects decision making is not yet clear. Here, we review evidence from behavioral and neuroimaging studies and summarize the effects of meditation on social and nonsocial economic decision making. Research suggests that meditation modulates brain activities associated with cognitive control, emotion regulation and empathy, and leads to improved nonsocial and social decision making. Accordingly, we propose an integrative model in which cognitive control, emotional regulation, and empathic concern mediate the effects of meditation on decision making. This model provides insights into the mechanisms by which meditation affects the decision making process. More evidence is needed to test our explanatory model and to explore the function of specific brain areas and their interactive effects on decision making during meditation training.

Emotion regulation and decision making under risk and uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Heilman, Renata M; Crişan, Liviu G; Houser, Daniel; Miclea, Mircea; Miu, Andrei C

2010-04-01

It is well established that emotion plays a key role in human social and economic decision making. The recent literature on emotion regulation (ER), however, highlights that humans typically make efforts to control emotion experiences. This leaves open the possibility that decision effects previously attributed to acute emotion may be a consequence of acute ER strategies such as cognitive reappraisal and expressive suppression. In Study 1, we manipulated ER of laboratory-induced fear and disgust, and found that the cognitive reappraisal of these negative emotions promotes risky decisions (reduces risk aversion) in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task and is associated with increased performance in the prehunch/hunch period of the Iowa Gambling Task. In Study 2, we found that naturally occurring negative emotions also increase risk aversion in Balloon Analogue Risk Task, but the incidental use of cognitive reappraisal of emotions impedes this effect. We offer evidence that the increased effectiveness of cognitive reappraisal in reducing the experience of emotions underlies its beneficial effects on decision making. Copyright 2010 APA, all rights reserved.

An Agent-Based Model of Farmer Decision Making in Jordan

Science.gov (United States)

Selby, Philip; Medellin-Azuara, Josue; Harou, Julien; Klassert, Christian; Yoon, Jim

2016-04-01

We describe an agent based hydro-economic model of groundwater irrigated agriculture in the Jordan Highlands. The model employs a Multi-Agent-Simulation (MAS) framework and is designed to evaluate direct and indirect outcomes of climate change scenarios and policy interventions on farmer decision making, including annual land use, groundwater use for irrigation, and water sales to a water tanker market. Land use and water use decisions are simulated for groups of farms grouped by location and their behavioural and economic similarities. Decreasing groundwater levels, and the associated increase in pumping costs, are important drivers for change within Jordan'S agricultural sector. We describe how this is considered by coupling of agricultural and groundwater models. The agricultural production model employs Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP), a method for calibrating agricultural production functions to observed planted areas. PMP has successfully been used with disaggregate models for policy analysis. We adapt the PMP approach to allow explicit evaluation of the impact of pumping costs, groundwater purchase fees and a water tanker market. The work demonstrates the applicability of agent-based agricultural decision making assessment in the Jordan Highlands and its integration with agricultural model calibration methods. The proposed approach is designed and implemented with software such that it could be used to evaluate a variety of physical and human influences on decision making in agricultural water management.

Understanding health decisions using critical realism: home-dialysis decision-making during chronic kidney disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Harwood, Lori; Clark, Alexander M

2012-03-01

Understanding health decisions using critical realism: home-dialysis decision-making during chronic kidney disease This paper examines home-dialysis decision making in people with Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) from the perspective of critical realism. CKD programmes focus on patient education for self-management to delay the progression of kidney disease and the preparation and support for renal replacement therapy e.g.) dialysis and transplantation. Home-dialysis has clear health, societal and economic benefits yet service usage is low despite efforts to realign resources and educate individuals. Current research on the determinants of modality selection is superficial and insufficient to capture the complexities embedded in the process of dialysis modality selection. Predictors of home-dialysis selection and the effect of chronic kidney disease educational programmes provide a limited explanation of this experience. A re-conceptualization of the problem is required in order to fully understand this process. The epistemology and ontology of critical realism guides our knowledge and methodology particularly suited for examination of these complexities. This approach examines the deeper mechanisms and wider determinants associated with modality decision making, specifically who chooses home dialysis and under what circumstances. Until more is known regarding dialysis modality decision making service usage of home dialysis will remain low as interventions will be based on inadequate epistemology. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The role of testosterone and estrogen in consumer behavior and social & economic decision making: A review.

Science.gov (United States)

Stanton, Steven J

2017-06-01

A contribution to a special issue on Hormones and Human Competition.This manuscript reviews the current literature on the actions of the steroid hormones testosterone and estradiol in shaping humans' behavior within two applied contexts, specifically consumer behavior and decision making (both social and economic). The theoretical argument put forth is that steroids shape these everyday behaviors and choices in service to being more competitive in achieving long-term goals related to resource acquisition, mating success, and social dominance. In addition, a discussion of the increased research focus on the role of steroids in other applied business domains will highlight the relevant applications of basic science discoveries in behavioral endocrinology. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Decision-making in committees

OpenAIRE

Li Hao; Wing Suen

2009-01-01

This article reviews recent developments in the theory of committee decision-making. A committee consists of self-interested members who make a public decision by aggregating imperfect information dispersed among them according to a pre-specified decision rule. We focus on costly information acquisition, strategic information aggregation, and rules and processes that enhance the quality of the committee decision. Seeming inefficiencies of the committee decision-making process such as over-cau...

THE FEATURES OF THE PROCESS OF MANAGERIAL DECISION-MAKING IN THE ENTERPRISE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. V. Romanovskaya

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The article discusses issues related to the development and acceptance of administrative decisions in the enterprise. The large number of publications in the field of research of the process of managerial decision-making demonstrates its relevance for effective management of the enterprise. The article presents the author's approach to the disclosure of the nature and concepts of the term «management decision», a substantive analysis of the main elements of the theoretical aspect of managerial decision-making. The increased competition associated with market liberalization and globalization of world economy, requires from senior management of an effective control system. The authors revised classification criteria and allocated them accordingly the kinds of management decisions; identifies the main stages of development and adoption of management decisions. The article is devoted to finding new ways of making decisions to improve the efficiency of enterprise management. It is noted that for optimal decision making, it is required to calculate the impact of its implementation on the value of the enterprise as a whole or the size of its economic effect.

System Sketch: A Visualization Tool to Improve Community Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Making decisions in coastal and estuarine management requires a comprehensive understanding of the linkages between environmental, social, and economic systems. SystemSketch is a web-based scoping tool designed to assist resource managers in characterizing their systems, explorin...

Tactical decision making under stress (TADMUS) decision support system

OpenAIRE

Morrison, Jeffrey G.; Kelly, Richard T.; Moore, Ronald A.; Hutchins, Susan G.

1996-01-01

A prototype decision support system (DSS) was developed to enhance Navy tactical decision making based on naturalistic decision processes. Displays were developed to support critical decision making tasks through recognition-primed and explanation-based reasoning processes and cognitive analysis of the decision making problems faced by Navy tactical officers in a shipboard Combat Information Center. Baseline testing in high intensity, peace keeping, littoral scenarios indicated...

Sustainability-Related Decision Making in Industrial Buildings: An AHP Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jesús Cuadrado

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Few other sectors have such a great impact on sustainability as the construction industry, in which concerns over the environmental dimension have been growing for some time. The sustainability assessment methodology presented in this paper is an AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process based on Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM and includes the main sustainability factors for consideration in the construction of an industrial building (environmental, economic, and social, as well as other factors that greatly influence the conceptual design of the building (employee safety, corporate image. Its simplicity is well adapted to its main objective, to serve as a sustainability-related decision making tool in industrial building projects, during the design stage. Accompanied by an economic valuation of the actions to be undertaken, this tool means that the most cost-effective solution may be selected from among the various options.

Personality and Health Care Decision-Making Style

OpenAIRE

Kathryn E. Flynn; Maureen A. Smith

2007-01-01

Using the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study Graduate Survey (N = 5,830), a population-based cohort of older adults (most aged 63–66 years), we explored relationships between five factors of personality and four preference types that account for multiple components of the health care decision-making process (information exchange, deliberation, and selection of treatment choice). After adjustment for personal, health, social, and economic factors, we found that increased conscientiousness and openne...

Hanford Site cleanup and transition: Risk data needs for decision making (Hanford risk data gap analysis decision guide)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gajewski, S.; Glantz, C.; Harper, B.; Bilyard, G.; Miller, P.

1995-10-01

Given the broad array of environmental problems, technical alternatives, and outcomes desired by different stakeholders at Hanford, DOE will have to make difficult resource allocations over the next few decades. Although some of these allocations will be driven purely by legal requirements, almost all of the major objectives of the cleanup and economic transition missions involve choices among alternative pathways. This study examined the following questions: what risk information is needed to make good decisions at Hanford; how do those data needs compare to the set(s) of risk data that will be generated by regulatory compliance activities and various non-compliance studies that are also concerned with risk? This analysis examined the Hanford Site missions, the Hanford Strategic Plan, known stakeholder values, and the most important decisions that have to be made at Hanford to determine a minimum domain of risk information required to make good decisions that will withstand legal, political, and technical scrutiny. The primary risk categories include (1) public health, (2) occupational health and safety, (3) ecological integrity, (4) cultural-religious welfare, and (5) socio-economic welfare

Understanding the Hows and Whys of Decision-Making: From Expected Utility to Divisive Normalization.

Science.gov (United States)

Glimcher, Paul

2014-01-01

Over the course of the last century, economists and ethologists have built detailed models from first principles of how humans and animals should make decisions. Over the course of the last few decades, psychologists and behavioral economists have gathered a wealth of data at variance with the predictions of these economic models. This has led to the development of highly descriptive models that can often predict what choices people or animals will make but without offering any insight into why people make the choices that they do--especially when those choices reduce a decision-maker's well-being. Over the course of the last two decades, neurobiologists working with economists and psychologists have begun to use our growing understanding of how the nervous system works to develop new models of how the nervous system makes decisions. The result, a growing revolution at the interdisciplinary border of neuroscience, psychology, and economics, is a new field called Neuroeconomics. Emerging neuroeconomic models stand to revolutionize our understanding of human and animal choice behavior by combining fundamental properties of neurobiological representation with decision-theoretic analyses. In this overview, one class of these models, based on the widely observed neural computation known as divisive normalization, is presented in detail. The work demonstrates not only that a discrete class of computation widely observed in the nervous system is fundamentally ubiquitous, but how that computation shapes behaviors ranging from visual perception to financial decision-making. It also offers the hope of reconciling economic analysis of what choices we should make with psychological observations of the choices we actually do make. Copyright © 2014 Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press; all rights reserved.

From Career Decision-Making Styles to Career Decision-Making Profiles: A Multidimensional Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Gati, Itamar; Landman, Shiri; Davidovitch, Shlomit; Asulin-Peretz, Lisa; Gadassi, Reuma

2010-01-01

Previous research on individual differences in career decision-making processes has often focused on classifying individuals into a few types of decision-making "styles" based on the most dominant trait or characteristic of their approach to the decision process (e.g., rational, intuitive, dependent; Harren, 1979). In this research, an…

Implications of Decision Making Research for Decision Support and Displays

OpenAIRE

Morrison, Jeffrey G.; Kelly, Richard T.; Moore, Ronald A.; Hutchins, Susan G.

1998-01-01

To appear in J. A. Cannon-Bowers & E. Salas (Eds.), Decision Making Under Stress: Implications for Training and Simulation. A prototype decision support system (DSS) was developed to enhance Navy tactical decision making based on naturalistic decision processes. Displays were developed to support critical decision making tasks through recognition-primed and explanation-based reasoning processes, and cognitive analysis was conducted of the decision making problems faced by Navy ...

The amygdala and decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Gupta, Rupa; Koscik, Timothy R; Bechara, Antoine; Tranel, Daniel

2011-03-01

Decision-making is a complex process that requires the orchestration of multiple neural systems. For example, decision-making is believed to involve areas of the brain involved in emotion (e.g., amygdala, ventromedial prefrontal cortex) and memory (e.g., hippocampus, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex). In this article, we will present findings related to the amygdala's role in decision-making, and differentiate the contributions of the amygdala from those of other structurally and functionally connected neural regions. Decades of research have shown that the amygdala is involved in associating a stimulus with its emotional value. This tradition has been extended in newer work, which has shown that the amygdala is especially important for decision-making, by triggering autonomic responses to emotional stimuli, including monetary reward and punishment. Patients with amygdala damage lack these autonomic responses to reward and punishment, and consequently, cannot utilize "somatic marker" type cues to guide future decision-making. Studies using laboratory decision-making tests have found deficient decision-making in patients with bilateral amygdala damage, which resembles their real-world difficulties with decision-making. Additionally, we have found evidence for an interaction between sex and laterality of amygdala functioning, such that unilateral damage to the right amygdala results in greater deficits in decision-making and social behavior in men, while left amygdala damage seems to be more detrimental for women. We have posited that the amygdala is part of an "impulsive," habit type system that triggers emotional responses to immediate outcomes. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Photovoltaics in agriculture: A case study on decision making of farmers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brudermann, Thomas; Reinsberger, Kathrin; Orthofer, Anita; Kislinger, Martin; Posch, Alfred

2013-01-01

This paper aims to identify the success factors, incentives, barriers and challenges in the adoption process of photovoltaics (PV) in the agricultural sector, with particular focus placed on decision making of individual farmers and network effects. We investigated a successful case of an Austrian farmers' association that set up a community power plant concept and a society for facilitating PV adoption among farmers. We found that PV adoption decisions are driven by economic and environmental considerations and that while ethical considerations are relatively strong among farmers, they cannot be used as predictors in the decision making process. Results furthermore suggest that while adoption of PV increases belief in technological progress as a solution to environmental problems, it may simultaneously lead to a weakening in the belief that underlying lifestyle changes are necessary. Our conclusions address crucial aspects of PV adoption in agriculture, and implications for policy measures related to respective community initiatives. - Highlights: • Study on successful community PV adoption case in agriculture. • Bottom-up emergence of institutional agreements as reaction to public subsidies. • Economic and environmental considerations guide decision making of farmers. • PV adoption might change perception of environmental problems. • Policy measures required to cope with potential added-value of private initiatives

Logics of pre-merger decision-making processes: the case of Karolinska University Hospital.

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Soki; Brommels, Mats

2009-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to examine how and why a decision to merge two university hospitals in a public context might occur by using an in-depth case study of the pre-merger process of Karolinska University Hospital. Based on extensive document analysis and 35 key informant interviews the paper reconstructed the pre-merger process, searched for empirical patterns, and interpreted those by applying neo-institutional theory. Spanning nearly a decade, the pre-merger process goes from idea generation through transition to decision, and took place on two arenas, political, and scientific. Both research excellence and economic efficiency are stated merger motives. By applying a neo-institutional perspective, the paper finds that the two initial phases are driven by decision rationality, which is typical for political organizations and that the final phase demonstrated action rationality, which is typical for private firms. Critical factors behind this radical change of decision logic are means convergence, uniting key stakeholder groups, and an economic and political crisis, triggering critical incidents, which ultimately legitimized the formal decision. It is evident from the paper that merger decisions in the public sector might not necessarily result from stated and/or economic drivers only. This paper suggests that a change of decision logic from decision to action rationality might promote effective decision making on large and complex issues in a public context. This is the first systematic in-depth study of a university hospital merger employing a decision-making perspective.

Before you make that big decision...

Science.gov (United States)

Kahneman, Daniel; Lovallo, Dan; Sibony, Olivier

2011-06-01

When an executive makes a big bet, he or she typically relies on the judgment of a team that has put together a proposal for a strategic course of action. After all, the team will have delved into the pros and cons much more deeply than the executive has time to do. The problem is, biases invariably creep into any team's reasoning-and often dangerously distort its thinking. A team that has fallen in love with its recommendation, for instance, may subconsciously dismiss evidence that contradicts its theories, give far too much weight to one piece of data, or make faulty comparisons to another business case. That's why, with important decisions, executives need to conduct a careful review not only of the content of recommendations but of the recommendation process. To that end, the authors-Kahneman, who won a Nobel Prize in economics for his work on cognitive biases; Lovallo of the University of Sydney; and Sibony of McKinsey-have put together a 12-question checklist intended to unearth and neutralize defects in teams' thinking. These questions help leaders examine whether a team has explored alternatives appropriately, gathered all the right information, and used well-grounded numbers to support its case. They also highlight considerations such as whether the team might be unduly influenced by self-interest, overconfidence, or attachment to past decisions. By using this practical tool, executives will build decision processes over time that reduce the effects of biases and upgrade the quality of decisions their organizations make. The payoffs can be significant: A recent McKinsey study of more than 1,000 business investments, for instance, showed that when companies worked to reduce the effects of bias, they raised their returns on investment by seven percentage points. Executives need to realize that the judgment of even highly experienced, superbly competent managers can be fallible. A disciplined decision-making process, not individual genius, is the key to good

Knowledge, decision making, and uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fox, J.

1986-01-01

Artificial intelligence (AI) systems depend heavily upon the ability to make decisions. Decisions require knowledge, yet there is no knowledge-based theory of decision making. To the extent that AI uses a theory of decision-making it adopts components of the traditional statistical view in which choices are made by maximizing some function of the probabilities of decision options. A knowledge-based scheme for reasoning about uncertainty is proposed, which extends the traditional framework but is compatible with it

Modelling decision-making by pilots

Science.gov (United States)

Patrick, Nicholas J. M.

1993-01-01

Our scientific goal is to understand the process of human decision-making. Specifically, a model of human decision-making in piloting modern commercial aircraft which prescribes optimal behavior, and against which we can measure human sub-optimality is sought. This model should help us understand such diverse aspects of piloting as strategic decision-making, and the implicit decisions involved in attention allocation. Our engineering goal is to provide design specifications for (1) better computer-based decision-aids, and (2) better training programs for the human pilot (or human decision-maker, DM).

Inconsistency and social decision making in patients with Borderline Personality Disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Preuss, Nora; Brändle, Laura S; Hager, Oliver M; Haynes, Melanie; Fischbacher, Urs; Hasler, Gregor

2016-09-30

Inconsistent social behavior is a core psychopathological feature of borderline personality disorder. The goal of the present study was to examine inconsistency in social decision-making using simple economic social experiments. We investigated the decisions of 17 female patients with BPD, 24 patients with major depressive disorder (MDD), and 36 healthy controls in three single shot economic experiments measuring trust, cooperation, and punishment. BPD severity was assessed using the Zanarini Rating Scale for BPD. Investments across identical one-shot trust and punishment games were significantly more inconsistent in BPD patients than in controls. Such inconsistencies were only found in the social risk conditions of the trust and punishment conditions but not in the non-social control conditions. MDD patients did not show such inconsistencies. Furthermore, social support was negatively correlated with inconsistent decision-making in the trust and punishment game, which underscores the clinical relevance of this finding. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Self-Esteem in Decision Making and Decision-Making Styles of Teachers

Science.gov (United States)

Temel, Veysel; Birol, Sefa Sahan; Nas, Kazim; Akpinar, Selahattin; Tekin, Murat

2015-01-01

The aim of the study was to examine the self-esteem in decision-making and decision-making styles of the teachers in various branches of Çat town of Erzurum Province, Turkey in terms of some variables in 2014-2015 year. A total of 153 teachers (84 females and 69 males) (age (? = 1.6536 ± 0.72837) from different departments participated in the…

Calm and smart? A selective review of meditation effects on decision making

OpenAIRE

Sun, Sai; Yao, Ziqing; Wei, Jaixin; Yu, Rongjun

2015-01-01

Over the past two decades, there has been a growing interest in the use of meditation to improve cognitive performance, emotional balance, and well-being. As a consequence, research into the psychological effects and neural mechanisms of meditation has been accumulating. Whether and how meditation affects decision making is not yet clear. Here, we review evidence from behavioral and neuroimaging studies and summarize the effects of meditation on social and non-social economic decision making....

Temporal decision-making: insights from cognitive neuroscience

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christian C Luhmann

2009-10-01

Full Text Available Decisions frequently have consequences that play out over time and these temporal factors can exert strong influences on behavior. For example, decision-makers exhibit delay discounting, behaving as though immediately consumable goods are more valuable than those available only after some delay. With the use of functional magnetic resonance imaging, we are now beginning to characterize the physiological bases of such behavior in humans and to link work on this topic from neuroscience, psychology, and economics. Here we review recent neurocognitive investigations of temporal decision-making and outline the theoretical picture that is beginning to take shape. Taken as a whole, this body of work illustrates the progress made in understanding temporal choice behavior. However, we also note several questions that remain unresolved and areas where future work is needed.

Stress and strategic decision-making in the beauty contest game.

Science.gov (United States)

Leder, Johannes; Häusser, Jan Alexander; Mojzisch, Andreas

2013-09-01

Often, economic decisions do not only depend on one's own preferences, but also on the choices of others and therefore require strategizing (i.e., thinking about what others might think). In experimental economics, this has been modeled by the beauty contest game. Another typical feature of economic decisions is that they are often carried out under stress. Therefore, in the present study, we aimed to examine the influence of stress on decision-making in the beauty contest game. Participants were randomly assigned to either the Trier Social Stress Test for Groups (TSST-G) or a placebo version of the TSST-G (control condition). Then, participants played four rounds of a standard beauty contest game. As a biomarker of stress, salivary cortisol was measured. As predicted, participants under stress chose higher numbers in the beauty contest game than non-stressed participants, indicating less strategizing. This effect was mediated by the stress-induced increase in cortisol. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decision-Making Based on Emotional Images

OpenAIRE

Katahira, Kentaro; Fujimura, Tomomi; Okanoya, Kazuo; Okada, Masato

2011-01-01

The emotional outcome of a choice affects subsequent decision making. While the relationship between decision making and emotion has attracted attention, studies on emotion and decision making have been independently developed. In this study, we investigated how the emotional valence of pictures, which was stochastically contingent on participants’ choices, influenced subsequent decision making. In contrast to traditional value-based decision-making studies that used money or food as a reward...

Decision making based on emotional images

OpenAIRE

Kentaro eKatahira; Kentaro eKatahira; Kentaro eKatahira; Tomomi eFujimura; Tomomi eFujimura; Kazuo eOkanoya; Kazuo eOkanoya; Kazuo eOkanoya; Masato eOkada; Masato eOkada; Masato eOkada

2011-01-01

The emotional outcome of a choice affects subsequent decision making. While the relationship between decision making and emotion has attracted attention, studies on emotion and decision making have been independently developed. In this study, we investigated how the emotional valence of pictures, which was stochastically contingent on participants’ choices, influenced subsequent decision making. In contrast to traditional value-based decision-making studies that used money or food as a reward...

Ethical decision-making, passivity and pharmacy

OpenAIRE

Cooper, R.J.; Bissell, P.; Wingfield, J.

2008-01-01

Background: Increasing interest in empirical ethics has enhanced understanding of healthcare professionals' ethical problems and attendant decision-making. A four-stage decision-making model involving ethical attention, reasoning, intention and action offers further insights into how more than reasoning alone may contribute to decision-making.\\ud \\ud Aims: To explore how the four-stage model can increase understanding of decision-making in healthcare and describe the decision-making of an und...

Effects of stochastic interest rates in decision making under risk: A Markov decision process model for forest management

Science.gov (United States)

Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongiorno

2011-01-01

Most economic studies of forest decision making under risk assume a fixed interest rate. This paper investigated some implications of this stochastic nature of interest rates. Markov decision process (MDP) models, used previously to integrate stochastic stand growth and prices, can be extended to include variable interest rates as well. This method was applied to...

Migrant decision-making in a frontier landscape

Science.gov (United States)

Salerno, Jonathan

2016-04-01

Across the tropics, rural farmers and livestock keepers use mobility as an adaptive livelihood strategy. Continued migration to and within frontier areas is widely viewed as a driver of environmental decline and biodiversity loss. Recent scholarship advances our understanding of migration decision-making in the context of changing climate and environments, and in doing so it highlights the variation in migration responses to primarily economic and environmental factors. Building on these insights, this letter investigates past and future migration decisions in a frontier landscape of Tanzania, East Africa. Combining field observations and household data within a multilevel modeling framework, the letter analyzes the explicit importance of social factors relative to economic and environmental factors in driving decisions to migrate or remain. Results indeed suggest that local community ties and non-local social networks drive both immobility and anticipated migration, respectively. In addition, positive interactions with local protected natural resource areas promote longer-term residence. Findings shed new light on how frontier areas transition to human dominated landscapes. This highlights critical links between migration behavior and the conservation of biodiversity and management of natural resources, as well as how migrants evolve to become integrated into communities.

Distributed Decision Making and Control

CERN Document Server

Rantzer, Anders

2012-01-01

Distributed Decision Making and Control is a mathematical treatment of relevant problems in distributed control, decision and multiagent systems, The research reported was prompted by the recent rapid development in large-scale networked and embedded systems and communications. One of the main reasons for the growing complexity in such systems is the dynamics introduced by computation and communication delays. Reliability, predictability, and efficient utilization of processing power and network resources are central issues and the new theory and design methods presented here are needed to analyze and optimize the complex interactions that arise between controllers, plants and networks. The text also helps to meet requirements arising from industrial practice for a more systematic approach to the design of distributed control structures and corresponding information interfaces Theory for coordination of many different control units is closely related to economics and game theory network uses being dictated by...

A Review of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Methods Applied to the Sustainable Bridge Design

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vicent Penadés-Plà

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The construction of bridges has been necessary for societies since ancient times, when the communication between and within towns, cities or communities was established. Until recently, the economic factor has been the only one considered in the decision-making of any type of construction process for bridges. However, nowadays, the objective should not be just the construction of bridges, but of sustainable bridges. Economic, social and environmental factors, which form the three pillars of sustainability, have been recently added. These three factors usually have conflicting perspectives. The decision-making process allows the conversion of a judgment into a rational procedure to reach a compromise solution. The aim of this paper is to review different methods and sustainable criteria used for decision-making at each life-cycle phase of a bridge, from design to recycling or demolition. This paper examines 77 journal articles for which different methods have been used. The most used methods are briefly described. In addition, a statistical study was carried out on the Multiple Attribute Decision-making papers reviewed.

Decision-making model of generation technology under uncertainty based on real option theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ming, Zeng; Ping, Zhang; Shunkun, Yu; Ge, Zhang

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A decision-making model of generation technology investment is proposed. • The irreversible investment concept and real option theory is introduced. • Practical data was used to prove the validity of the model. • Impact of electricity and fuel price fluctuation on investment was analyzed. - Abstract: The introduction of market competition and the increased uncertainty factors makes the generators have to decide not only on whether to invest generation capacity or not but also on what kind of generation technology to choose. In this paper, a decision-making model of generation technology investment is proposed. The irreversible investment concept and real option theory is introduced as the fundamental of the model. In order to explain the decision-making process of generator’s investment, the decision-making optimization model was built considering two generation technologies, i.e., the heat-only system and the combined heat and power generation. Also, we discussed the theory deducing process, which explained how to eliminate the overrated economic potential caused by risk hazard, based on economic evaluation of both generation technologies. Finally, practical data from electricity market of Inner Mongolia was used to prove the validity of the model and the impact of uncertainties of electricity and fuel price fluctuation on investment was analyzed according to the simulated results.

Risk Aversion is Associated with Decision Making among Community-Based Older Persons.

Science.gov (United States)

Boyle, Patricia A; Yu, Lei; Buchman, Aron S; Bennett, David A

2012-01-01

Risk aversion is associated with many important decisions among younger and middle aged persons, but the association of risk aversion with decision making has not been well studied among older persons who face some of the most significant decisions of their lives. Using data from 606 community-dwelling older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, an ongoing longitudinal epidemiologic study of aging, we examined the association of risk aversion with decision making. Risk aversion was measured using standard behavioral economics questions in which participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment ($15) versus a gamble in which they could gain more than $15 or gain nothing; potential gamble gains ranged from $20 to $300 with the gain amounts varied randomly over questions. Decision making was measured using a 12 item version of the Decision Making Competence Assessment Tool. In a linear regression model adjusted for age, sex, education, and income, greater risk aversion was associated with poorer decision making [estimate = -1.03, standard error (SE) = 0.35, p = 0.003]. Subsequent analyses showed that the association of risk aversion with decision making persisted after adjustment for global cognitive function as well as executive and non-executive cognitive abilities. Similar to findings from studies of younger persons, risk aversion is associated with poorer decision making among older persons who face a myriad of complex and influential decisions.

Moral and Ethical Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

2007-07-01

rational ones (i.e. Kohlberg’s influential model of decision making ). However, non- rational elements, such as affect, risk perception, risk preference...dread or anxiety) play a strong role in many types of decisions , and that the addition of decision makers’ emotions to models of choice may make ...White, 1994) agree that emotions are an integral part of ethical decision making as well. Emotions arise in the context of interpersonal

Constraint programming and decision making

CERN Document Server

Kreinovich, Vladik

2014-01-01

In many application areas, it is necessary to make effective decisions under constraints. Several area-specific techniques are known for such decision problems; however, because these techniques are area-specific, it is not easy to apply each technique to other applications areas. Cross-fertilization between different application areas is one of the main objectives of the annual International Workshops on Constraint Programming and Decision Making. Those workshops, held in the US (El Paso, Texas), in Europe (Lyon, France), and in Asia (Novosibirsk, Russia), from 2008 to 2012, have attracted researchers and practitioners from all over the world. This volume presents extended versions of selected papers from those workshops. These papers deal with all stages of decision making under constraints: (1) formulating the problem of multi-criteria decision making in precise terms, (2) determining when the corresponding decision problem is algorithmically solvable; (3) finding the corresponding algorithms, and making...

Adapting Scott and Bruce's General Decision-Making Style Inventory to Patient Decision Making in Provider Choice.

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, Sophia; Soyez, Katja; Gurtner, Sebastian

2015-05-01

Research testing the concept of decision-making styles in specific contexts such as health care-related choices is missing. Therefore, we examine the contextuality of Scott and Bruce's (1995) General Decision-Making Style Inventory with respect to patient choice situations. Scott and Bruce's scale was adapted for use as a patient decision-making style inventory. In total, 388 German patients who underwent elective joint surgery responded to a questionnaire about their provider choice. Confirmatory factor analyses within 2 independent samples assessed factorial structure, reliability, and validity of the scale. The final 4-dimensional, 13-item patient decision-making style inventory showed satisfactory psychometric properties. Data analyses supported reliability and construct validity. Besides the intuitive, dependent, and avoidant style, a new subdimension, called "comparative" decision-making style, emerged that originated from the rational dimension of the general model. This research provides evidence for the contextuality of decision-making style to specific choice situations. Using a limited set of indicators, this report proposes the patient decision-making style inventory as valid and feasible tool to assess patients' decision propensities. © The Author(s) 2015.

Research on self-esteem in decision-making and decision-making styles in orienteering athletes

OpenAIRE

Eroğlu Başak; Özkan Zekiye; Eroğlu Arif Kaan; Bilgin Şakire

2016-01-01

The aim of this study is to examine the self-esteem in decision making and decision-making styles of orienteering athletes in terms of different variables. 157 male and 43 female orienteering athletes, making a total of 200 athletes that joined the 3rd Level of Turkey Championship in 2015 have participated in this study which is in a survey model. The data collection tools were the Melbourne Decision-making. Quastionnaire I-II and the Personal Information Form which were adapted into Turkish ...

Decision making in energy policies with conflicting interests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Renn, O.

1988-01-01

After the accident in Chernobyl policy making and implementation of energy decisions have become more difficult than ever. On the one hand the public reacts with fear and opposition to a possible extention of nuclear power, on the other hand the economic prosperity of a country depends on an inexpensive and non-exhaustive energy source like nuclear energy. The paper describes a concept of energy planning developed by a study group of the Nuclear Research Centre in Julich (FRG). The concept is based on the idea that in a pluralistic society different social groups should participate in the policy formulation process and that the values of the public should be incorporated in the weighting process to make choices between given options. As reference theory the basic framework of decision analysis is used. (orig./DG)

Understanding consumer decisions using behavioral economics.

Science.gov (United States)

Zandstra, Elizabeth H; Miyapuram, Krishna P; Tobler, Philippe N

2013-01-01

Consumers make many decisions in everyday life involving finances, food, and health. It is known from behavioral economics research that people are often driven by short-term gratification, that is, people tend to choose the immediate, albeit smaller reward. But choosing the delayed reward, that is, delaying the gratification, can actually be beneficial. How can we motivate consumers to resist the "now" and invest in their future, leading to sustainable or healthy habits? We review recent developments from behavioral and neuroimaging studies that are relevant for understanding consumer decisions. Further, we present results from our field research that examined whether we can increase the perceived value of a (delayed) environmental benefit using tailored communication, that is, change the way it is framed. More specifically, we investigated whether we can boost the value of an abstract, long-term "green" claim of a product by expressing it as a concrete, short-term benefit. This is a new application area for behavioral economics. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Role of affect in decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Bandyopadhyay, Debarati; Pammi, V S Chandrasekhar; Srinivasan, Narayanan

2013-01-01

Emotion plays a major role in influencing our everyday cognitive and behavioral functions, including decision making. We introduce different ways in which emotions are characterized in terms of the way they influence or elicited by decision making. This chapter discusses different theories that have been proposed to explain the role of emotions in judgment and decision making. We also discuss incidental emotional influences, both long-duration influences like mood and short-duration influences by emotional context present prior to or during decision making. We present and discuss results from a study with emotional pictures presented prior to decision making and how that influences both decision processes and postdecision experience as a function of uncertainty. We conclude with a summary of the work on emotions and decision making in the context of decision-making theories and our work on incidental emotions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of partner-directed emotion in social exchange decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Eimontaite, Iveta; Nicolle, Antoinette; Schindler, Igor; Goel, Vinod

2013-01-01

Despite the prevalence of studies examining economic decision-making as a purely rational phenomenon, common sense suggests that emotions affect our decision-making particularly in a social context. To explore the influence of emotions on economic decision-making, we manipulated opponent-directed emotions prior to engaging participants in two social exchange decision-making games (the Trust Game and the Prisoner's Dilemma). Participants played both games with three different (fictional) partners and their tendency to defect was measured. Prior to playing each game, participants exchanged handwritten "essays" with their partners, and subsequently exchanged evaluations of each essay. The essays and evaluations, read by the participant, were designed to induce either anger, sympathy, or a neutral emotional response toward the confederate with whom they would then play the social exchange games. Galvanic skin conductance level (SCL) showed enhanced physiological arousal during anger induction compared to both the neutral and sympathy conditions. In both social exchange games, participants were most likely to defect against their partner after anger induction and least likely to defect after sympathy induction, with the neutral condition eliciting intermediate defection rates. This pattern was found to be strongest in participants exhibiting low cognitive control (as measured by a Go/no-Go task). The findings indicate that emotions felt toward another individual alter how one chooses to interact with them, and that this influence depends both on the specific emotion induced and the cognitive control of the individual.

The effect of partner-directed emotion in social exchange decision-making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iveta eEimontaite

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Despite the prevalence of studies examining economic decision-making as a purely rational phenomenon, common sense suggests that emotions affect our decision-making particularly in a social context. To address the influence of emotions on economic decision-making, we manipulated opponent-directed emotions prior to engaging participants in two social exchange decision-making games (the Trust Game and the Prisoner’s Dilemma. Participants played both games with three different (fictional partners and their tendency to defect was measured. Prior to playing each game, participants exchanged handwritten essays with their partners, and subsequently exchanged evaluations of each essay. The essays and evaluations, read by the participant, were designed to induce either anger, sympathy or a neutral emotional response towards the confederate with whom they would then play the social exchange games. Galvanic skin conductance level showed enhanced physiological arousal during anger induction compared to both neutral and sympathy conditions. In both social exchange games, participants were most likely to defect against their partner after anger induction and least likely to defect after sympathy induction, with the neutral condition eliciting intermediate defection rates. This pattern was found to be strongest in participants exhibiting low cognitive control (as measured by a Go/no-Go task. The findings indicate that emotions felt towards another individual alter how one chooses to interact with them, and that this influence depends both on the specific emotion induced and the cognitive control of the individual.

The effect of partner-directed emotion in social exchange decision-making

Science.gov (United States)

Eimontaite, Iveta; Nicolle, Antoinette; Schindler, Igor; Goel, Vinod

2013-01-01

Despite the prevalence of studies examining economic decision-making as a purely rational phenomenon, common sense suggests that emotions affect our decision-making particularly in a social context. To explore the influence of emotions on economic decision-making, we manipulated opponent-directed emotions prior to engaging participants in two social exchange decision-making games (the Trust Game and the Prisoner's Dilemma). Participants played both games with three different (fictional) partners and their tendency to defect was measured. Prior to playing each game, participants exchanged handwritten “essays” with their partners, and subsequently exchanged evaluations of each essay. The essays and evaluations, read by the participant, were designed to induce either anger, sympathy, or a neutral emotional response toward the confederate with whom they would then play the social exchange games. Galvanic skin conductance level (SCL) showed enhanced physiological arousal during anger induction compared to both the neutral and sympathy conditions. In both social exchange games, participants were most likely to defect against their partner after anger induction and least likely to defect after sympathy induction, with the neutral condition eliciting intermediate defection rates. This pattern was found to be strongest in participants exhibiting low cognitive control (as measured by a Go/no-Go task). The findings indicate that emotions felt toward another individual alter how one chooses to interact with them, and that this influence depends both on the specific emotion induced and the cognitive control of the individual. PMID:23898313

Risk analysis for CHP decision making within the conditions of an open electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Al-Mansour, Fouad; Kozuh, Mitja

2007-01-01

Decision making under uncertainty is a difficult task in most areas. Investment decisions for combined heat and power production (CHP) are certainly one of the areas where it is difficult to find an optimal solution since the payback period is several years and parameters change due to different perturbing factors of economic and mostly political nature. CHP is one of the most effective measures for saving primary energy and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of EU directives on the promotion of cogeneration based on useful heat demand in the internal energy market will accelerate CHP installation. The expected number of small CHP installations will be very high in the near future. A quick, reliable and simple tool for economic evaluation of small CHP systems is required. Since evaluation is normally made by sophisticated economic computer models which are rather expensive, a simple point estimate economic model was developed which was later upgraded by risk methodology to give more informative results for better decision making. This paper presents a reliable computer model entitled 'Computer program for economic evaluation analysis of CHP' as a tool for analysis and economic evaluation of small CHP systems with the aim of helping the decision maker. The paper describes two methods for calculation of the sensitivity of the economic results to changes of input parameters and the uncertainty of the results: the classic/static method and the risk method. The computer program uses risk methodology by applying RISK software on an existing conventional economic model. The use of risk methodology for economic evaluation can improve decisions by incorporating all possible information (knowledge), which cannot be done in the conventional economic model due to its limitations. The methodology was tested on the case of a CHP used in a smaller hospital

The Self in Decision Making and Decision Implementation.

Science.gov (United States)

Beach, Lee Roy; Mitchell, Terence R.

Since the early 1950's the principal prescriptive model in the psychological study of decision making has been maximization of Subjective Expected Utility (SEU). This SEU maximization has come to be regarded as a description of how people go about making decisions. However, while observed decision processes sometimes resemble the SEU model,…

Variation in decision making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dall, Sasha R. X.; Gosling, Samuel; Gordon D.A., Brown,; Dingemanse, Niels; Ido, Erev,; Martin, Kocher,; Laura, Schulz,; Todd, Peter M; Weissing, Franz; Wolf, Max; Hammerstein, Peter; Stevens, Jeffrey R.

2012-01-01

Variation in how organisms allocate their behavior over their lifetimes is key to determining Darwinian fitness., and thus the evolution of human and nonhuman decision making. This chapter explores how decision making varies across biologically and societally significant scales and what role such

Methods for Health Economic Evaluation of Vaccines and Immunization Decision Frameworks: A Consensus Framework from a European Vaccine Economics Community.

Science.gov (United States)

Ultsch, Bernhard; Damm, Oliver; Beutels, Philippe; Bilcke, Joke; Brüggenjürgen, Bernd; Gerber-Grote, Andreas; Greiner, Wolfgang; Hanquet, Germaine; Hutubessy, Raymond; Jit, Mark; Knol, Mirjam; von Kries, Rüdiger; Kuhlmann, Alexander; Levy-Bruhl, Daniel; Perleth, Matthias; Postma, Maarten; Salo, Heini; Siebert, Uwe; Wasem, Jürgen; Wichmann, Ole

2016-03-01

Incremental cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses [health economic evaluations (HEEs)] of vaccines are routinely considered in decision making on immunization in various industrialized countries. While guidelines advocating more standardization of such HEEs (mainly for curative drugs) exist, several immunization-specific aspects (e.g. indirect effects or discounting approach) are still a subject of debate within the scientific community. The objective of this study was to develop a consensus framework for HEEs of vaccines to support the development of national guidelines in Europe. A systematic literature review was conducted to identify prevailing issues related to HEEs of vaccines. Furthermore, European experts in the field of health economics and immunization decision making were nominated and asked to select relevant aspects for discussion. Based on this, a workshop was held with these experts. Aspects on 'mathematical modelling', 'health economics' and 'decision making' were debated in group-work sessions (GWS) to formulate recommendations and/or--if applicable--to state 'pros' and 'contras'. A total of 13 different aspects were identified for modelling and HEE: model selection, time horizon of models, natural disease history, measures of vaccine-induced protection, duration of vaccine-induced protection, indirect effects apart from herd protection, target population, model calibration and validation, handling uncertainty, discounting, health-related quality of life, cost components, and perspectives. For decision making, there were four aspects regarding the purpose and the integration of HEEs of vaccines in decision making as well as the variation of parameters within uncertainty analyses and the reporting of results from HEEs. For each aspect, background information and an expert consensus were formulated. There was consensus that when HEEs are used to prioritize healthcare funding, this should be done in a consistent way across all interventions

Ambiguity aversion in schizophrenia: An fMRI study of decision-making under risk and ambiguity.

Science.gov (United States)

Fujino, Junya; Hirose, Kimito; Tei, Shisei; Kawada, Ryosaku; Tsurumi, Kosuke; Matsukawa, Noriko; Miyata, Jun; Sugihara, Genichi; Yoshihara, Yujiro; Ideno, Takashi; Aso, Toshihiko; Takemura, Kazuhisa; Fukuyama, Hidenao; Murai, Toshiya; Takahashi, Hidehiko

2016-12-01

When making decisions in everyday life, we often have to choose between uncertain outcomes. Economic studies have demonstrated that healthy people tend to prefer options with known probabilities (risk) than those with unknown probabilities (ambiguity), which is referred to as "ambiguity aversion." However, it remains unclear how patients with schizophrenia behave under ambiguity, despite growing evidence of their altered decision-making under uncertainty. In this study, combining economic tools and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we assessed the attitudes toward risk/ambiguity and investigated the neural correlates during decision-making under risk/ambiguity in schizophrenia. Although no significant difference in attitudes under risk was observed, patients with schizophrenia chose ambiguity significantly more often than the healthy controls. Attitudes under risk and ambiguity did not correlate across patients with schizophrenia. Furthermore, unlike in the healthy controls, activation of the left lateral orbitofrontal cortex was not increased during decision-making under ambiguity compared to under risk in schizophrenia. These results suggest that ambiguity aversion, a well-established subjective bias, is attenuated in patients with schizophrenia, highlighting the need to distinguish between risk and ambiguity when assessing decision-making under these situations. Our findings, comprising important clinical implications, contribute to improved understanding of the mechanisms underlying altered decision-making in patients with schizophrenia. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The role of the anterior cingulate cortex in women's sexual decision making.

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Rupp, Heather A; James, Thomas W; Ketterson, Ellen D; Sengelaub, Dale R; Janssen, Erick; Heiman, Julia R

2009-01-02

Women's sexual decision making is a complex process balancing the potential rewards of conception and pleasure against the risks of possible low paternal care or sexually transmitted infection. Although neural processes underlying social decision making are suggested to overlap with those involved in economic decision making, the neural systems associated with women's sexual decision making are unknown. Using fMRI, we measured the brain activation of 12 women while they viewed photos of men's faces. Face stimuli were accompanied by information regarding each man's potential risk as a sexual partner, indicated by a written description of the man's number of previous sexual partners and frequency of condom use. Participants were asked to evaluate how likely they would be to have sex with the man depicted. Women reported that they would be more likely to have sex with low compared to high risk men. Stimuli depicting low risk men also elicited stronger activation in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), midbrain, and intraparietal sulcus, possibly reflecting an influence of sexual risk on women's attraction, arousal, and attention during their sexual decision making. Activation in the ACC was positively correlated with women's subjective evaluations of sex likelihood and response times during their evaluations of high, but not low risk men. These findings provide evidence that neural systems involved in sexual decision making in women overlap with those described previously to underlie nonsexual decision making.

Emotion, decision making, and the amygdala.

Science.gov (United States)

Seymour, Ben; Dolan, Ray

2008-06-12

Emotion plays a critical role in many contemporary accounts of decision making, but exactly what underlies its influence and how this is mediated in the brain remain far from clear. Here, we review behavioral studies that suggest that Pavlovian processes can exert an important influence over choice and may account for many effects that have traditionally been attributed to emotion. We illustrate how recent experiments cast light on the underlying structure of Pavlovian control and argue that generally this influence makes good computational sense. Corresponding neuroscientific data from both animals and humans implicate a central role for the amygdala through interactions with other brain areas. This yields a neurobiological account of emotion in which it may operate, often covertly, to optimize rather than corrupt economic choice.

The Effect of Decision-Making Skill Training Programs on Self-Esteem and Decision-Making Styles

Science.gov (United States)

Colakkadioglu, Oguzhan; Celik, D. Billur

2016-01-01

Problem Statement: Decision making is a critical cognitive process in every area of human life. In this process, the individuals play an active role and obtain outputs with their functional use of decision-making skills. Therefore, the decision-making process can affect the course of life, life satisfaction, and the social relations of an…

The decision-making process in public healthcare entities – identification of the decision-making process type

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Szymaniec-Mlicka Karolina

2017-05-01

Full Text Available The decisions made in the organization determine its success, therefore, conducting studies in the scope of decision-making seems important both for theory and practice. The aim of the studies was to identify the type of decision-making process in public medical entities with the use of typology developed by P. Nutt. For this purpose we used qualitative methods. Interviews with 8 directors of hospitals were conducted and the reconstruction was made on the basis of the decision-making process, which enabled the assignment of the model of decision-making process to the organization. The research indicated that four organizations use the historical decision-making model, three organizations represent the model of generating solutions, and one organization uses the model of available solutions.

A New Interlink Decision Making Index for Making Multi-criteria Decision

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Eric Hu

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Multi-criteria decisions usually require measurement or evaluation of performance in different units and their mix by application of weighting factors. This approach lads to potential manipulation of the results as a direct consequence of the applied weightings. In this paper a mechanism that is the brain child of the authors, has been proposed to overcome this problem. It is known as the Interlink Decision Making Index (IDMI and has all the desired features: simple, interlink (all criteria and automatically guaranteed dominant influence of critical criteria (i.e. no human weighting needed. The IDMI is capable of reflecting the total merits of a particular option once the normal decision making criteria and (up to two critical criteria have been chosen. Then, without arbitrarily weighting criteria, comparison and selection of the best possible option can be made. Simple software has been developed to do this numerical transfer and graphic presentation. Two hypothetical examples are presented in the paper to demonstrate the application of the IDMI concept and its advantages over the traditional "tabular and weightingmethod" in the decision making process. 

A judgment and decision-making model for plant behavior.

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Karban, Richard; Orrock, John L

2018-06-12

Recently plant biologists have documented that plants, like animals, engage in many activities that can be considered as behaviors, although plant biologists currently lack a conceptual framework to understand these processes. Borrowing the well-established framework developed by psychologists, we propose that plant behaviors can be constructively modeled by identifying four distinct components: 1) a cue or stimulus that provides information, 2) a judgment whereby the plant perceives and processes this informative cue, 3) a decision whereby the plant chooses among several options based on their relative costs and benefits, and 4) action. Judgment for plants can be determined empirically by monitoring signaling associated with electrical, calcium, or hormonal fluxes. Decision-making can be evaluated empirically by monitoring gene expression or differential allocation of resources. We provide examples of the utility of this judgment and decision-making framework by considering cases in which plants either successfully or unsuccessfully induced resistance against attacking herbivores. Separating judgment from decision-making suggests new analytical paradigms (i.e., Bayesian methods for judgment and economic utility models for decision-making). Following this framework, we propose an experimental approach to plant behavior that explicitly manipulates the stimuli provided to plants, uses plants that vary in sensory abilities, and examines how environmental context affects plant responses. The concepts and approaches that follow from the judgment and decision-making framework can shape how we study and understand plant-herbivore interactions, biological invasions, plant responses to climate change, and the susceptibility of plants to evolutionary traps. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Ethically-based clinical decision-making in physical therapy: process and issues.

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Finch, Elspeth; Geddes, E Lynne; Larin, Hélène

2005-01-01

The identification and consideration of relevant ethical issues in clinical decision-making, and the education of health care professionals (HCPs) in these skills are key factors in providing quality health care. This qualitative study explores the way in which physical therapists (PTs) integrate ethical issues into clinical practice decisions and identifies ethical themes used by PTs. A purposive sample of eight PTs was asked to describe a recent ethically-based clinical decision. Transcribed interviews were coded and themes identified related to the following categories: 1) the integration of ethical issues in the clinical decision-making process, 2) patient welfare, 3) professional ethos of the PT, and 4) health care economics and business practices. Participants readily described clinical situations involving ethical issues but rarely identified specific conflicting ethical issues in their description. Ethical dilemmas were more frequently resolved when there were fewer emotional sequelae associated with the dilemma, and the PT had a clear understanding of professional ethos, valued patient autonomy, and explored a variety of alternative actions before implementing one. HCP students need to develop a clear professional ethos and an increased understanding of the economic factors that will present ethical issues in practice.

Impact of nutrition on social decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Strang, Sabrina; Hoeber, Christina; Uhl, Olaf; Koletzko, Berthold; Münte, Thomas F; Lehnert, Hendrik; Dolan, Raymond J; Schmid, Sebastian M; Park, Soyoung Q

2017-06-20

Food intake is essential for maintaining homeostasis, which is necessary for survival in all species. However, food intake also impacts multiple biochemical processes that influence our behavior. Here, we investigate the causal relationship between macronutrient composition, its bodily biochemical impact, and a modulation of human social decision making. Across two studies, we show that breakfasts with different macronutrient compositions modulated human social behavior. Breakfasts with a high-carbohydrate/protein ratio increased social punishment behavior in response to norm violations compared with that in response to a low carbohydrate/protein meal. We show that these macronutrient-induced behavioral changes in social decision making are causally related to a lowering of plasma tyrosine levels. The findings indicate that, in a limited sense, "we are what we eat" and provide a perspective on a nutrition-driven modulation of cognition. The findings have implications for education, economics, and public policy, and emphasize that the importance of a balanced diet may extend beyond the mere physical benefits of adequate nutrition.

Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barfod, Michael Bruhn

The subject of this Ph.D. thesis entitled “Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences” is multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and decision support in the context of transport infrastructure assessments. Despite the fact that large amounts...... is concerned with the insufficiency of conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA), and proposes the use of MCDA as a supplementing tool in order to also capture impacts of a more strategic character in the appraisals and hence make more use of the often large efforts put in the preliminary examinations. MCDA...... and rail to bike transport projects. Two major concerns have been to propose an examination process that can be used in situations where complex decision problems need to be addressed by experts as well as non-experts in decision making, and to identify appropriate assessment techniques to be used...

Collaborative Decision Making in METOC

Science.gov (United States)

2002-01-01

desired effect (Eagly, & Chaiken, 1993). Arguably, artificial intelligence is representative of the best of approaches in rational decision - making ...2001), The quantum of social action and the function of emotion in decision - making , Emotional and Intelligent II: The Tangled Knot of Social...Collaborative decision making in METOC W.F. Lawless Paine College, Departments of Mathematics and Psychology Augusta, GA 30901-3182 ph: 706

Advancing in the Career Decision-Making Process: The Role of Coping Strategies and Career Decision-Making Profiles

Science.gov (United States)

Perez, Maya; Gati, Itamar

2017-01-01

We tested the associations among the career decision-making difficulties, the career decision status, and either (a) the career decision-making profiles of 575 young adults, or (b) the coping strategies of 379 young adults. As hypothesized, a more advanced decision status was negatively associated with both career decision-making difficulties…

An Evaluation of Factors Affecting Decision Making among 4th Grade Elementary School Students with Low Socio-Economic Status

Science.gov (United States)

Kaskaya, Alper; Calp, Sükran; Kuru, Oguzhan

2017-01-01

Decision making is one of the most important life skills. While making correct, timely, accurate and appropriate decisions lead to positive changes in one's life, making incorrect decisions may have a negative impact. It is an important issue to examine what the 4th grade students in primary school have about the decision-making ability to be…

Using health outcomes data to inform decision-making: formulary committee perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Janknegt, R

2001-01-01

When healthcare resources are limited, decisions about the treatments to fund can be complex and difficult to make, involving the careful balancing of multiple factors. The decisions taken may have far-reaching consequences affecting many people. Clearly, decisions such as the choice of products on a formulary must be taken using a selection process that is fully transparent and that can be justified to all parties concerned. Although everyone would agree that drug selection should be a rational process that follows the guidelines of evidence-based medicine, many other factors may play a role in decision-making. Although some of these are explicit and rational, others are less clearly defined, and decision-makers may be unaware of the influence exerted by some of these factors. In order to facilitate transparent decision-making that makes rational use of health outcomes information, the System of Objectified Judgement Analysis (SOJA) has been developed by the author. SOJA includes interactive software that combines the quality advantages of the 'top-down' approach to drug selection, based on a thorough literature review, with the compliance advantages of a 'bottom-up' approach, where the final decision is made by the individual formulary committee and not by the authors of the review. The SOJA method, based on decision-making processes in economics, ensures that health outcomes information is given appropriate weight. Such approaches are valuable tools in discussions about product selection for formularies.

Decision-making on reverse logistics in the construction industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thanwadee Chinda

2016-02-01

Full Text Available With the growing competition, many construction organizations attempt to improve their productivity, quality, and efficiency. Construction waste management, by means of reverse logistics, becomes a key issue to improve the productivity, and raise the company’s green image. In this study, four reverse logistics methods-direct reuse, remanufacturing, recycling, and landfill-are considered to manage construction and demolition (C&D waste. Two factors (economic and site-specific with their 15 sub-factors affecting the decisions to implement the reverse logistics are examined. The hierarchy model of reverse logistics decisions, developed through the analytic hierarchy process, reveal the importance of the economic factor over the site-specific factor. It is suggested that the transportation cost, the processing cost, the specific sorting technology, and the limited project time must be first considered before making decisions on reverse logistics plans. The construction company can utilize the developed hierarchy model to decide on the most appropriate reverse logistics plan to achieve the best benefits.

Decision-making: Theory and Practice

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Turpin, SM

2004-01-01

Full Text Available of decision support technology. Much variation was found in people’s personal decision-making styles. However, some central themes emerged, such as the importance of sensitivity to the decision-making context, attention to the presentation of information...

Decision-Making Theories and Models: A Discussion of Rational and Psychological Decision-Making Theories and Models: The Search for a Cultural-Ethical Decision-Making Model

OpenAIRE

Oliveira, Arnaldo

2007-01-01

This paper examines rational and psychological decision-making models. Descriptive and normative methodologies such as attribution theory, schema theory, prospect theory, ambiguity model, game theory, and expected utility theory are discussed. The definition of culture is reviewed, and the relationship between culture and decision making is also highlighted as many organizations use a cultural-ethical decision-making model.

A mixed biomass-based energy supply chain for enhancing economic and environmental sustainability benefits: A multi-criteria decision making framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mirkouei, Amin; Haapala, Karl R.; Sessions, John; Murthy, Ganti S.

2017-01-01

Highlights: •A mixed supply chain is developed to enhance sustainability benefits of bioenergy. •A decision-making framework is constructed to balance sustainability dimensions. •A stochastic optimization model is developed to explore the effects of uncertainty. •This study provides insights on bio-oil production processes and system structure. -- Abstract: Bioenergy sources have been introduced as a means to address challenges of conventional energy sources. The uncertainties of supply-side (upstream) externalities (e.g., collection and logistics) represent the key challenges in bioenergy supply chains and lead to reduce cross-cutting sustainability benefits. We propose a mixed biomass-based energy supply chain (consisting of mixed-mode bio-refineries and mixed-pathway transportation) and a multi-criteria decision making framework to address the upstream challenges. Our developed framework supports decisions influencing the economic and environmental dimensions of sustainability. Economic analysis employs a support vector machine technique, to predict the pattern of uncertainty parameters, and a stochastic optimization model, to incorporate uncertainties into the model. The stochastic model minimizes the total annual cost of the proposed mixed supply chain network by using a genetic algorithm. Environmental impact analysis employs life cycle assessment to evaluate the global warming potential of the cost-effective supply chain network. Our presented approach is capable of enhancing sustainability benefits of bioenergy industry infrastructure. A case study for the Pacific Northwest is used to demonstrate the application of the methodology and to verify the models. The results indicate that mixed supply chains can improve sustainability performance over traditional supply infrastructures by reducing costs (up to 24%) and environmental impacts (up to 5%).

Serotonin and decision making processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Homberg, Judith R

2012-01-01

Serotonin (5-HT) is an important player in decision making. Serotonergic antidepressant, anxiolytic and antipsychotic drugs are extensively used in the treatment of neuropsychiatric disorders characterized by impaired decision making, and exert both beneficial and harmful effects in patients. Detailed insight into the serotonergic mechanisms underlying decision making is needed to strengthen the first and weaken the latter. Although much remains to be done to achieve this, accumulating studies begin to deliver a coherent view. Thus, high central 5-HT levels are generally associated with improved reversal learning, improved attentional set shifting, decreased delay discounting, and increased response inhibition, but a failure to use outcome representations. Based on 5-HT's evolutionary role, I hypothesize that 5-HT integrates expected, or changes in, relevant sensory and emotional internal/external information, leading to vigilance behaviour affecting various decision making processes. 5-HT receptor subtypes play distinctive roles in decision making. 5-HT(2A) agonists and 5-HT2c antagonists decrease compulsivity, whereas 5-HT(2A) antagonists and 5-HT(2C) agonists decrease impulsivity. 5-HT(6) antagonists univocally affect decision making processes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nuclear regulatory decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

The fundamental objective of all nuclear safety regulatory bodies is to ensure that nuclear utilities operate their plants at all times in an acceptably safe manner. In meeting this objective, the regulatory body should strive to ensure that its regulatory decisions are technically sound, consistent from case to case, and timely. In addition, the regulator must be aware that its decisions and the circumstances surrounding those decisions can affect how its stakeholders, such as government policy makers, the industry it regulates, and the public, view it as an effective and credible regulator. In order to maintain the confidence of those stakeholders, the regulator should make sure that its decisions are transparent, have a clear basis in law and regulations, and are seen by impartial observers to be fair to all parties. Based on the work of a Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) expert group, this report discusses some of the basic principles and criteria that a regulatory body should consider in making decisions and describes the elements of an integrated framework for regulatory decision making. (author)

Fuzzy multiple objective decision making methods and applications

CERN Document Server

Lai, Young-Jou

1994-01-01

In the last 25 years, the fuzzy set theory has been applied in many disciplines such as operations research, management science, control theory, artificial intelligence/expert system, etc. In this volume, methods and applications of crisp, fuzzy and possibilistic multiple objective decision making are first systematically and thoroughly reviewed and classified. This state-of-the-art survey provides readers with a capsule look into the existing methods, and their characteristics and applicability to analysis of fuzzy and possibilistic programming problems. To realize practical fuzzy modelling, it presents solutions for real-world problems including production/manufacturing, location, logistics, environment management, banking/finance, personnel, marketing, accounting, agriculture economics and data analysis. This book is a guided tour through the literature in the rapidly growing fields of operations research and decision making and includes the most up-to-date bibliographical listing of literature on the topi...

IS IT IMPORTANT THE ACCOUNTING MODEL USED BY THE ECONOMIC ENTITY IN MAKING DECISIONS BY THE USERS OF THE INFORMATION? POINTS OF VIEW.

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Luminita Rus

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Nowadays it is vital to stay informed. But why is the information so important? The following will present the role and the importance of accounting information in decision-making regarding economic entity. Is accounting information a want or a need? Can accounting information be interpreted correctly indifferent of the accounting model used? Decisions made by the consumers of accounting information would be the same in terms of using the "cash" or "accrual" method? Based on these questions, this paper presents data as a whole for everyone and from where each consumer of information can extract only the part that they are interested in and which is useful for them. This paper follows the interests of users of accounting information regarding the interest, the need for information and the decisions they may take as a result of the information received, and also of the accounting model used by the entity from which the information is expected. This paper does not include all users of the accounting information that have interest in the economic entity, nor does it take into account all the information that are affected by the use of a model of accounting or the other one of the economic entity, but we can conclude that there are situations in which users ' decisions are influenced by the accounting model used, and others where there is no influence. We can't rule on any model to be the best; it is good that provides useful information showing the true reality of the economic entity.

Negative decision outcomes are more common among people with lower decision-making competence: An item-level analysis of the Decision Outcome Inventory (DOI

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Andrew M Parker

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Most behavioral decision research takes place in carefully controlled laboratory settings, and examination of relationships between performance and specific real-world decision outcomes is rare. One prior study shows that people who perform better on hypothetical decision tasks, assessed using the Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC measure, also tend to experience better real-world decision outcomes, as reported on the Decision Outcomes Inventory (DOI. The DOI score reflects avoidance of outcomes that could result from poor decisions, ranging from serious (e.g., bankruptcy to minor (e.g., blisters from sunburn. The present analyses go beyond the initial work, which focused on the overall DOI score, by analyzing the relationships between specific decision outcomes and A-DMC performance. Most outcomes are significantly more likely among people with lower A-DMC scores, even after taking into account two variables expected to produce worse real-world decision outcomes: younger age and lower socio-economic status. We discuss the usefulness of DOI as a measure of successful real-world decision making.

Decision Making in Adults with ADHD

Science.gov (United States)

Montyla, Timo; Still, Johanna; Gullberg, Stina; Del Missier, Fabio

2012-01-01

Objectives: This study examined decision-making competence in ADHD by using multiple decision tasks with varying demands on analytic versus affective processes. Methods: Adults with ADHD and healthy controls completed two tasks of analytic decision making, as measured by the Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC) battery, and two affective…

Relationship power, decision making, and sexual relations: an exploratory study with couples of Mexican origin.

Science.gov (United States)

Harvey, S Marie; Beckman, Linda J; Browner, Carole H; Sherman, Christy A

2002-11-01

This study explored how couples of Mexican origin define power in intimate relationships, what makes men and women feel powerful in relationships, and the role of each partner in decision making about sexual and reproductive matters. Interviews were conducted with each partner of 39 sexually active couples and data were analyzed using content analysis. Results indicate that power is perceived as control over one s partner and the ability to make decisions. Women say they feel more powerful in relationships when they make unilateral decisions and have economic independence. Men feel powerful when they have control over their partner and bring home money. Respondents agreed that women make decisions about household matters and children, while men make decisions related to money. Findings indicate that whereas couples share decision making about sexual activities and contraceptive use, men are seen as initiators of sexual activity and women are more likely to suggest condom use.

Anthropology and decision making about chronic technological disasters: Mixed waste remediation on the Oak Ridge Reservation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wolfe, A.K.; Schweitzer, M.

1996-01-01

This paper discusses two related case studies of decision making about the remediation of mixed (hazardous and radioactive) wastes on the Oak Ridge Reservation in Tennessee. The three goals of the paper are to (1) place current decision-making efforts in the varied and evolving social, political, regulatory, economic, and technological contexts in which they occur; (2) present definitions and attributes of open-quotes successfulclose quotes environmental decision making from the perspectives of key constituency groups that participate in decision making; and (3) discuss the role of anthropology in addressing environmental decision making. Environmental decision making about remediation is extraordinarily complex, involving human health and ecological risks; uncertainties about risks, technological ability to clean up, the financial costs of clean up; multiple and sometimes conflicting regulations; social equity and justice considerations; and decreasing budgets. Anthropological theories and methods can contribute to better understanding and, potentially, to better decision making

Calm and Smart? A Selective Review on Effects of Meditation on Decision Making

OpenAIRE

Sai eSun; Ziqing eYao; Jiaxin eWei; Rongjun eYu

2015-01-01

Over the past two decades, there has been a growing interest in the use of meditation to improve cognitive performance, emotional balance, and well-being. As a consequence, research into the psychological effects and neural mechanisms of meditation has been accumulating. Whether and how meditation affects decision making is not yet clear. Here, we review evidence from behavioral and neuroimaging studies and summarize the effects of meditation on social and nonsocial economic decision making. ...

The effect of women's decision-making power on maternal health services uptake: evidence from Pakistan.

Science.gov (United States)

Hou, Xiaohui; Ma, Ning

2013-03-01

A large body of research has explored the links between women's decision making and their uptake of maternal health services, but the evidence so far is inconclusive. This study uses the Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey to examine the influence of household decision making on women's uptake of maternal health services. We find that women's decision-making power has a significant positive correlation with maternal health services uptake and that influential males' decision-making power has the opposite effect, after controlling for socio-economic indicators and supply-side conditions. Our findings suggest that empowering women and increasing their ability to make decisions may increase their uptake of maternal health services. They also suggest that policies directed toward improving women's utilization of maternal health services in Pakistan must target men as well as women.

Regret in Decision Making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Connolly, T.; Zeelenberg, M.

2002-01-01

Decision research has only recently started to take seriously the role of emotions in choices and decisions. Regret is the emotion that has received the most attention. In this article, we sample a number of the initial regret studies from psychology and economics, and trace some of the complexities

Competence for Democracy: Participation and Decision-Making in Classroom Interaction

Science.gov (United States)

Manzel, Sabine

2016-01-01

In this keynote address given at the International Association for Citizenship, Social and Economics Education (IACSEE) Conference in July 2015, Sabine Manzel focused on participation and decision-making as key competences for democracy. She analysed with standardized videography how both of these competences are realized in classroom interaction.

Strategic decision making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stokman, Frans N.; Assen, Marcel A.L.M. van; Knoop, Jelle van der; Oosten, Reinier C.H. van

2000-01-01

This paper introduces a methodology for strategic intervention in collective decision making.The methodology is based on (1) a decomposition of the problem into a few main controversial issues, (2) systematic interviews of subject area specialists to obtain a specification of the decision

Decision-making impairment in anorexia nervosa: New insights into the role of age and decision-making style.

Science.gov (United States)

Giannunzio, Valeria; Degortes, Daniela; Tenconi, Elena; Collantoni, Enrico; Solmi, Marco; Santonastaso, Paolo; Favaro, Angela

2018-07-01

Patients with anorexia nervosa (AN) often report difficulties in decision making, which may interfere with treatment. The aim of this study was to investigate decision making in a large sample of adolescent and adult patients with AN, by using the Iowa gambling task. Participants were 611 female individuals (310 patients and 301 controls) who underwent neuropsychological and clinical assessment. Significantly poorer decision-making performance was observed in adult patients, whereas no difference emerged between affected and nonaffected adolescents. Both adolescent and adult patients were characterized by trends for higher levels of attention to losses in comparison with healthy controls. Although healthy adult women exhibited better decision-making performance than healthy adolescents, in AN, there was no improvement of decision making with age. A cluster analysis identified 2 different styles of decision making in both patients and controls: a conservative style and an impulsive style. Our study provides evidence of dysfunctional decision making in adult patients with AN and reveals an association between poor decision making and excessive punishment sensitivity in AN. The clinical and scientific implications of these findings merit further exploration. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and Eating Disorders Association.

Motivations Underlying Career Decision-Making Activities: The Career Decision-Making Autonomy Scale (CDMAS)

Science.gov (United States)

Guay, Frederic

2005-01-01

The purpose of the present research was to develop and validate a measure of motivation toward career decision-making activities, the Career Decision-Making Autonomy Scale (CDMAS). The CDMAS is designed to assess the constructs of intrinsic motivation, identified regulation, introjected regulation, and external regulation. A longitudinal study was…

Ethical aspect price decision making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Grubor Aleksandar

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Price decision making in a marketing program framework creatings is a complicated and delicated part of marketing management, especially to keep in sight culminating of mass external factors. In a market economies price policy as a marketing mix instrument rarely is regulated by the law, which opening the ethical aspect questions of price decision making process. The ethics in the price decision making means consideration of the inner law of the individual (marketing managers and/or consumers, whose irreverence does not entail any juridical sanctions, rather its application is sanctioned by the self - awareness. The acception and stability of the ethical aspect price decision making are determined by the characteristic of selected marketing environment.

Separate neural mechanisms underlie choices and strategic preferences in risky decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Venkatraman, Vinod; Payne, John W; Bettman, James R; Luce, Mary Frances; Huettel, Scott A

2009-05-28

Adaptive decision making in real-world contexts often relies on strategic simplifications of decision problems. Yet, the neural mechanisms that shape these strategies and their implementation remain largely unknown. Using an economic decision-making task, we dissociate brain regions that predict specific choices from those predicting an individual's preferred strategy. Choices that maximized gains or minimized losses were predicted by functional magnetic resonance imaging activation in ventromedial prefrontal cortex or anterior insula, respectively. However, choices that followed a simplifying strategy (i.e., attending to overall probability of winning) were associated with activation in parietal and lateral prefrontal cortices. Dorsomedial prefrontal cortex, through differential functional connectivity with parietal and insular cortex, predicted individual variability in strategic preferences. Finally, we demonstrate that robust decision strategies follow from neural sensitivity to rewards. We conclude that decision making reflects more than compensatory interaction of choice-related regions; in addition, specific brain systems potentiate choices depending on strategies, traits, and context.

Ethical decision making

OpenAIRE

Zsolnai, László

2011-01-01

The self-centeredness of modern organizations leads to environmental destruction and human deprivation. The principle of responsibility developed by Hans Jonas requires caring for the beings affected by our decisions and actions. Ethical decision-making creates a synthesis of reverence for ethical norms, rationality in goal achievement, and respect for the stakeholders. The maximin rule selects the "least worst alternative" in the multidimensional decision space of deontologica...

Ethical decision-making, passivity and pharmacy.

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, R J; Bissell, P; Wingfield, J

2008-06-01

Increasing interest in empirical ethics has enhanced understanding of healthcare professionals' ethical problems and attendant decision-making. A four-stage decision-making model involving ethical attention, reasoning, intention and action offers further insights into how more than reasoning alone may contribute to decision-making. To explore how the four-stage model can increase understanding of decision-making in healthcare and describe the decision-making of an under-researched professional group. 23 purposively sampled UK community pharmacists were asked, in semi-structured interviews, to describe ethical problems in their work and how they were resolved. Framework analysis of transcribed interviews utilised the four decision-making stages, together with constant comparative methods and deviant-case analysis. Pharmacists were often inattentive and constructed problems in legal terms. Ethical reasoning was limited, but examples of appeals to consequences, the golden rule, religious faith and common-sense experience emerged. Ethical intention was compromised by frequent concern about legal prosecution. Ethical inaction was common, typified by pharmacists' failure to report healthcare professionals' bad practices, and ethical passivity emerged to describe these negative examples of the four decision-making stages. Pharmacists occasionally described more ethically active decision-making, but this often involved ethical uncertainty. The four decision-making stages are a useful tool in considering how healthcare professionals try to resolve ethical problems in practice. They reveal processes often ignored in normative theories, and their recognition and the emergence of ethical passivity indicates the complexity of decision-making in practice. Ethical passivity may be deleterious to patients' welfare, and concerns emerge about improving pharmacists' ethical training and promoting ethical awareness and responsibility.

Shared decision-making and patient autonomy.

Science.gov (United States)

Sandman, Lars; Munthe, Christian

2009-01-01

In patient-centred care, shared decision-making is advocated as the preferred form of medical decision-making. Shared decision-making is supported with reference to patient autonomy without abandoning the patient or giving up the possibility of influencing how the patient is benefited. It is, however, not transparent how shared decision-making is related to autonomy and, in effect, what support autonomy can give shared decision-making. In the article, different forms of shared decision-making are analysed in relation to five different aspects of autonomy: (1) self-realisation; (2) preference satisfaction; (3) self-direction; (4) binary autonomy of the person; (5) gradual autonomy of the person. It is argued that both individually and jointly these aspects will support the models called shared rational deliberative patient choice and joint decision as the preferred versions from an autonomy perspective. Acknowledging that both of these models may fail, the professionally driven best interest compromise model is held out as a satisfactory second-best choice.

A Costing Analysis for Decision Making Grid Model in Failure-Based Maintenance

OpenAIRE

M. A., Burhanuddin; Halawani, Sami M.; Ahmad, A. R.

2011-01-01

Background. In current economic downturn, industries have to set good control on production cost, to maintain their profit margin. Maintenance department as an imperative unit in industries should attain all maintenance data, process information instantaneously, and subsequently transform it into a useful decision. Then act on the alternative to reduce production cost. Decision Making Grid model is used to identify strategies for maintenance decision. However, the model has limitation as it c...

Rough multiple objective decision making

CERN Document Server

Xu, Jiuping

2011-01-01

Rough Set TheoryBasic concepts and properties of rough sets Rough Membership Rough Intervals Rough FunctionApplications of Rough SetsMultiple Objective Rough Decision Making Reverse Logistics Problem with Rough Interval Parameters MODM based Rough Approximation for Feasible RegionEVRMCCRMDCRM Reverse Logistics Network Design Problem of Suji Renewable Resource MarketBilevel Multiple Objective Rough Decision Making Hierarchical Supply Chain Planning Problem with Rough Interval Parameters Bilevel Decision Making ModelBL-EVRM BL-CCRMBL-DCRMApplication to Supply Chain Planning of Mianyang Co., LtdStochastic Multiple Objective Rough Decision Multi-Objective Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling UnderRough Random EnvironmentRandom Variable Stochastic EVRM Stochastic CCRM Stochastic DCRM Multi-Objective rc-PSP/mM/Ro-Ra for Longtan Hydropower StationFuzzy Multiple Objective Rough Decision Making Allocation Problem under Fuzzy Environment Fuzzy Variable Fu-EVRM Fu-CCRM Fu-DCRM Earth-Rock Work Allocation Problem.

Decision making with environmental indices

Science.gov (United States)

Hoag, Dana L.; Ascough, James C.; Keske-Handley, C.; Koontz, Lynne; Burk, A.R.

2005-01-01

Since Ott's seminal book on environmental indices (1978), the use of indices has expanded into several natural resource disciplines, including ecological studies, environmental policymaking, and agricultural economics. However, despite their increasing use in natural resource disciplines, researchers and public decision makers continue to express concern about validity of these instruments to capture and communicate multidimensional, and sometimes disparate, characteristics of research data and stakeholder interests. Our purpose is to demonstrate how useful indices can be for communicating environmental information to decision makers. We discuss how environmental indices have evolved over four stages: 1) simple; 2) compound multicriteria; 3) the impact matrix and 4) disparate stakeholder management. We provide examples of simple and compound indices that were used by policy decision makers. We then build a framework, called an Impact Matrix (IM), that comprehensively accounts for multiple indices but lets the user decide how to integrate them. The IM was shaped from the concept of a financial risk payoff matrix and applied to ecosystem risk. While the IM offers flexibility, it does not address stakeholder preferences about which index to use. Therefore, the last phase in our evolutionary ladder includes stakeholder indices to specifically address disparate stakeholder preferences. Finally, we assert that an environmental index has the potential to increase resource efficiency, since the number of decision making resources may be reduced, and hence improve upon resource productivity

The Drug Reimbursement Decision-Making System in Iran.

Science.gov (United States)

Ansaripour, Amir; Uyl-de Groot, Carin A; Steenhoek, Adri; Redekop, William K

2014-05-01

Previous studies of health policies in Iran have not focused exclusively on the drug reimbursement process. The aim of this study was to describe the entire drug reimbursement process and the stakeholders, and discuss issues faced by policymakers. Review of documents describing the administrative rules and directives of stakeholders, supplemented by published statistics and interviews with experts and policymakers. Iran has a systematic process for the assessment, appraisal, and judgment of drug reimbursements. The two most important organizations in this process are the Food and Drug Organization, which considers clinical effectiveness, safety, and economic issues, and the Supreme Council of Health Insurance, which considers various criteria, including budget impact and cost-effectiveness. Ultimately, the Iranian Cabinet approves a drug and recommends its use to all health insurance organizations. Reimbursed drugs account for about 53.5% of all available drugs and 77.3% of drug expenditures. Despite its strengths, the system faces various issues, including conflicting stakeholder aims, lengthy decision-making duration, limited access to decision-making details, and rigidity in the assessment process. The Iranian drug reimbursement system uses decision-making criteria and a structured approach similar to those in other countries. Important shortcomings in the system include out-of-pocket contributions due to lengthy decision making, lack of transparency, and conflicting interests among stakeholders. Iranian policymakers should consider a number of ways to remedy these problems, such as case studies of individual drugs and closer examination of experiences in other countries. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity analysis in economic evaluation: an audit of NICE current practice and a review of its use and value in decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Andronis, L; Barton, P; Bryan, S

2009-06-01

To determine how we define good practice in sensitivity analysis in general and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) in particular, and to what extent it has been adhered to in the independent economic evaluations undertaken for the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) over recent years; to establish what policy impact sensitivity analysis has in the context of NICE, and policy-makers' views on sensitivity analysis and uncertainty, and what use is made of sensitivity analysis in policy decision-making. Three major electronic databases, MEDLINE, EMBASE and the NHS Economic Evaluation Database, were searched from inception to February 2008. The meaning of 'good practice' in the broad area of sensitivity analysis was explored through a review of the literature. An audit was undertaken of the 15 most recent NICE multiple technology appraisal judgements and their related reports to assess how sensitivity analysis has been undertaken by independent academic teams for NICE. A review of the policy and guidance documents issued by NICE aimed to assess the policy impact of the sensitivity analysis and the PSA in particular. Qualitative interview data from NICE Technology Appraisal Committee members, collected as part of an earlier study, were also analysed to assess the value attached to the sensitivity analysis components of the economic analyses conducted for NICE. All forms of sensitivity analysis, notably both deterministic and probabilistic approaches, have their supporters and their detractors. Practice in relation to univariate sensitivity analysis is highly variable, with considerable lack of clarity in relation to the methods used and the basis of the ranges employed. In relation to PSA, there is a high level of variability in the form of distribution used for similar parameters, and the justification for such choices is rarely given. Virtually all analyses failed to consider correlations within the PSA, and this is an area of concern

Economic modeling for life extension decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farber, M.A.; Harrison, D.L.; Carlson, D.D.

1986-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives

The Responders' Gender Stereotypes Modulate the Strategic Decision-Making of Proposers Playing the Ultimatum Game.

Science.gov (United States)

Fabre, Eve F; Causse, Mickael; Pesciarelli, Francesca; Cacciari, Cristina

2016-01-01

Despite the wealth of studies investigating factors affecting decisions, not much is known about the impact of stereotypical beliefs on strategic economic decision-making. In the present study, we used the ultimatum game paradigm to investigate how participants playing as proposer modulate their strategic economic behavior, according to their game counterparts' stereotypical identity (i.e., responders). The latter were introduced to the participants using occupational role nouns stereotypically marked with gender paired with feminine or masculine proper names (e.g., linguist-Anna; economist-David; economist-Cristina; linguist-Leonardo). When playing with male-stereotyped responders, proposers quickly applied the equity rule, behaving fairly, while they adopted a strategic behavior with responders characterized by female stereotypes. They were also longer to make their offers to female than to male responders but both kinds of responders received comparable offers, suggesting a greater cognitive effort to treat females as equally as males. The present study explicitly demonstrates that gender stereotypical information affect strategic economic decision-making and highlights a possible evolution of gender discrimination into a more insidious discrimination toward individuals with female characteristics.

The Responders’ Gender Stereotypes Modulate the Strategic Decision-Making of Proposers playing the Ultimatum Game

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eve Florianne Fabre

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Despite the wealth of studies investigating factors affecting decisions, not much is known about the impact of stereotypical beliefs on strategic economic decision-making. In the present study, we used the ultimatum game paradigm to investigate how participants playing as proposer modulate their strategic economic behavior, according to their game counterparts’ stereotypical identity (i.e., responders. The latter were introduced to the participants using occupational role nouns stereotypically marked with gender paired with feminine or masculine proper names (e.g., linguist-Anna; economist-David; economist-Cristina; linguist-Leonardo. When playing with male-stereotyped responders, proposers quickly applied the equity rule, behaving fairly, while they adopted a strategic behavior with responders characterized by female stereotypes. They were also longer to make their offers to female than to male responders but both kinds of responders received comparable offers, suggesting a greater cognitive effort to treat females as equally as males. The present study explicitly demonstrates that gender stereotypical information affect strategic economic decision-making and highlights a possible evolution of gender discrimination into a more insidious discrimination toward individuals with female characteristics.

The Responders’ Gender Stereotypes Modulate the Strategic Decision-Making of Proposers Playing the Ultimatum Game

Science.gov (United States)

Fabre, Eve F.; Causse, Mickael; Pesciarelli, Francesca; Cacciari, Cristina

2016-01-01

Despite the wealth of studies investigating factors affecting decisions, not much is known about the impact of stereotypical beliefs on strategic economic decision-making. In the present study, we used the ultimatum game paradigm to investigate how participants playing as proposer modulate their strategic economic behavior, according to their game counterparts’ stereotypical identity (i.e., responders). The latter were introduced to the participants using occupational role nouns stereotypically marked with gender paired with feminine or masculine proper names (e.g., linguist-Anna; economist-David; economist-Cristina; linguist-Leonardo). When playing with male-stereotyped responders, proposers quickly applied the equity rule, behaving fairly, while they adopted a strategic behavior with responders characterized by female stereotypes. They were also longer to make their offers to female than to male responders but both kinds of responders received comparable offers, suggesting a greater cognitive effort to treat females as equally as males. The present study explicitly demonstrates that gender stereotypical information affect strategic economic decision-making and highlights a possible evolution of gender discrimination into a more insidious discrimination toward individuals with female characteristics. PMID:26834684

Regime change and public policy: the political and macro-economic decision-making of Spanish energy policy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lancaster, T.D.

1983-01-01

This dissertation examines the effects of peaceful regime change on public policy-making. Spain's National Energy Plan (PEN) in particular, and energy planning in general, constitute a critical policy issue which permits direct comparison of decision-making across regime change from the Franco dictatorship to the present constitutional monarchy. The research reveals that the nature of the political coalition underlying Spain's regime change accounts of the lack of significant change in policy-making processes in this particular policy issue. This thesis develops a two-pronged argument to explain the absence of significant policy change. The first is based on a general view of the Franco regime's and the democratic system's coalitional support. In each, three major political forces are seen as central: the military, business, and labor. One of these, business, is seen as being pivotal in the regime transition. Business' pivotal position, it is argued, has permitted a defence of a national energy policy beneficial to its economic interests in energy. The argument's second part focuses on the binding constraint on policy outcomes imposed by private interests in state planning and the generally non-binding nature of oppositional party policy proposals and public opinion.

Mapping Perceptions of Lupus Medication Decision-Making Facilitators: The Importance of Patient Context.

Science.gov (United States)

Qu, Haiyan; Shewchuk, Richard M; Alarcón, Graciela; Fraenkel, Liana; Leong, Amye; Dall'Era, Maria; Yazdany, Jinoos; Singh, Jasvinder A

2016-12-01

Numerous factors can impede or facilitate patients' medication decision-making and adherence to physicians' recommendations. Little is known about how patients and physicians jointly view issues that affect the decision-making process. Our objective was to derive an empirical framework of patient-identified facilitators to lupus medication decision-making from key stakeholders (including 15 physicians, 5 patients/patient advocates, and 8 medical professionals) using a patient-centered cognitive mapping approach. We used nominal group patient panels to identify facilitators to lupus treatment decision-making. Stakeholders independently sorted the identified facilitators (n = 98) based on their similarities and rated the importance of each facilitator in patient decision-making. Data were analyzed using multidimensional scaling and hierarchical cluster analysis. A cognitive map was derived that represents an empirical framework of facilitators for lupus treatment decisions from multiple stakeholders' perspectives. The facilitator clusters were 1) hope for a normal/healthy life, 2) understand benefits and effectiveness of taking medications, 3) desire to minimize side effects, 4) medication-related data, 5) medication effectiveness for "me," 6) family focus, 7) confidence in physician, 8) medication research, 9) reassurance about medication, and 10) medication economics. Consideration of how different stakeholders perceive the relative importance of lupus medication decision-making clusters is an important step toward improving patient-physician communication and effective shared decision-making. The empirically derived framework of medication decision-making facilitators can be used as a guide to develop a lupus decision aid that focuses on improving physician-patient communication. © 2016, American College of Rheumatology.

The relevance of economic data in the decision-making process for orbital launch vehicle programs, a U.S. perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Hertzfeld, Henry R.; Williamson, Ray A.; Peter, Nicolas

2007-12-01

Over the past fifteen years, major U.S. initiatives for the development of new launch vehicles have been remarkably unsuccessful. The list is long: NLI, SLI, and X-33, not to mention several cancelled programs aimed at high speed airplanes (NASP, HSCT) which would share some similar technological problems. The economic aspects of these programs are equally as important to their success as are the technical aspects. In fact, by largely ignoring economic realities in the decisions to undertake these programs and in subsequent management decisions, space agencies (and their commercial partners) have inadvertently contributed to the eventual demise of these efforts. The transportation revolution that was envisaged by the promises of these programs has never occurred. Access to space is still very expensive; reliability of launch vehicles has remained constant over the years; and market demand has been relatively low, volatile and slow to develop. The changing international context of the industry (launching overcapacity, etc.) has also worked against the investment in new vehicles in the U.S. Today, unless there are unforeseen technical breakthroughs, orbital space access is likely to continue as it has been with high costs and market stagnation. Space exploration will require significant launching capabilities. The details of the future needs are not yet well defined. But, the question of the launch costs, the overall demand for vehicles, and the size and type of role that NASA will play in the overall launch market is likely to influence the industry. This paper will emphasize the lessons learned from the economic and management perspective from past launch programs, analyze the issues behind the demand for launches, and project the challenges that NASA will face as only one new customer in a very complex market situation. It will be important for NASA to make launch vehicle decisions based as much on economic considerations as it does on solving new technical

Making the Connection between Environmental Science and Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Woodhouse, C. A.; Crimmins, M.; Ferguson, D. B.; Garfin, G. M.; Scott, C. A.

2011-12-01

As society is confronted with population growth, limited resources, and the impacts of climate variability and change, it is vital that institutions of higher education promote the development of professionals who can work with decision-makers to incorporate scientific information into environmental planning and management. Skills for the communication of science are essential, but equally important is the ability to understand decision-making contexts and engage with resource managers and policy makers. It is increasingly being recognized that people who understand the linkages between science and decision making are crucial if science is to better support planning and policy. A new graduate-level seminar, "Making the Connection between Environmental Science and Decision Making," is a core course for a new post-baccalaureate certificate program, Connecting Environmental Science and Decision Making at the University of Arizona. The goal of the course is to provide students with a basic understanding of the dynamics between scientists and decision makers that result in scientific information being incorporated into environmental planning, policy, and management decisions. Through readings from the environmental and social sciences, policy, and planning literature, the course explores concepts including scientific information supply and demand, boundary organizations, co-production of knowledge, platforms for engagement, and knowledge networks. Visiting speakers help students understand some of the challenges of incorporating scientific information into planning and decision making within institutional and political contexts. The course also includes practical aspects of two-way communication via written, oral, and graphical presentations as well as through the interview process to facilitate the transfer of scientific information to decision makers as well as to broader audiences. We aspire to help students develop techniques that improve communication and

How decisions emerge: action dynamics in intertemporal decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Dshemuchadse, Maja; Scherbaum, Stefan; Goschke, Thomas

2013-02-01

In intertemporal decision making, individuals prefer smaller rewards delivered sooner over larger rewards delivered later, often to an extent that seems irrational from an economical perspective. This behavior has been attributed to a lack of self-control and reflection, the nonlinearity of human time perception, and several other sources. Although an increasing number of models propose different mathematical descriptions of temporal discounting, the dynamics of the decision process behind temporal discounting are much less clear. In this study, we obtained further insights into the mechanisms of intertemporal decisions by observing choice action dynamics via a novel combination of continuously recorded mouse movements and a multiple regression approach. Participants had to choose between two hypothetical options (sooner/smaller vs. later/larger) by moving the mouse cursor from the bottom of the screen either to the top left or to the top right. We observed less direct mouse movements when participants chose later/larger rewards, indicating that participants had to overcome the attraction of the sooner/smaller reward first. Additionally, our results suggest that framing time information differently changes the weighting of value. We conclude that using a continuous process-oriented approach could further advance the understanding of intertemporal choice beyond the identification of the best fitted mathematical description of the discounting function by uncovering the way intertemporal decisions are performed. 2013 APA, all rights reserved

Electroencephalogy (EEG) Feedback in Decision-Making

Science.gov (United States)

2015-08-26

Electroencephalogy ( EEG ) Feedback In Decision- Making The goal of this project is to investigate whether Electroencephalogy ( EEG ) can provide useful...feedback when training rapid decision-making. More specifically, EEG will allow us to provide online feedback about the neural decision processes...Electroencephalogy ( EEG ) Feedback In Decision-Making Report Title The goal of this project is to investigate whether Electroencephalogy ( EEG ) can provide useful

Managerial Decision Making in Traffic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Teodor Perić

2003-11-01

Full Text Available Decision-making is defined as a selection of a certain actionamong several alternatives. It is the essence of planning, asin the managerial sense there is no plan until a decision of engagementof resources, reputation and direction of activities ismade. Decision-making is, in fact, only a step in planning, evenwhen it is performed quickly and without special consideration.It is what we all experience every day. It is one of the most fascinatingbiological activities and the subject of frightening implicationsfor the whole human race. Since various techniques improvethe system and the quality of managerial decision-making,they are classified into three assumptions: risk analysis, decision-making trees, and the theory of revealed preference. Allof these are based on the interaction of a certain number of importantvariables out of which many contain the elements ofuncertainty, but maybe also high level of probability.

Shame in decision making under risk conditions: Understanding the effect of transparency

Science.gov (United States)

2018-01-01

The role played by the emotion of shame in the area of decision-making in situations of risk has hardly been studied. In this article, we show how the socio-moral emotions and the anticipated feeling of shame associated with different options can determine our decisions, even overriding the cognitive choice tendency proposed by the certainty effect. To do so, we carried out an experiment with university students as participants, dividing them into four experimental conditions. Our findings suggest that people avoid making unethical decisions, both when these decisions are made public to others and when they remain in the private sphere. This result seems to indicate that the main factor in not making unethical decisions is related to the need to avoid transgressing an internal moral standard of behavior, and that the role of transparency is less relevant than expected. However, we propose that, although the effect of transparency is limited in reducing unethical economic decisions, it should continue to be taken into account in theoretical models that address the reasons people behave unethically. PMID:29444107

Shame in decision making under risk conditions: Understanding the effect of transparency.

Science.gov (United States)

Bonavia, Tomas; Brox-Ponce, Josué

2018-01-01

The role played by the emotion of shame in the area of decision-making in situations of risk has hardly been studied. In this article, we show how the socio-moral emotions and the anticipated feeling of shame associated with different options can determine our decisions, even overriding the cognitive choice tendency proposed by the certainty effect. To do so, we carried out an experiment with university students as participants, dividing them into four experimental conditions. Our findings suggest that people avoid making unethical decisions, both when these decisions are made public to others and when they remain in the private sphere. This result seems to indicate that the main factor in not making unethical decisions is related to the need to avoid transgressing an internal moral standard of behavior, and that the role of transparency is less relevant than expected. However, we propose that, although the effect of transparency is limited in reducing unethical economic decisions, it should continue to be taken into account in theoretical models that address the reasons people behave unethically.

Shame in decision making under risk conditions: Understanding the effect of transparency.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tomas Bonavia

Full Text Available The role played by the emotion of shame in the area of decision-making in situations of risk has hardly been studied. In this article, we show how the socio-moral emotions and the anticipated feeling of shame associated with different options can determine our decisions, even overriding the cognitive choice tendency proposed by the certainty effect. To do so, we carried out an experiment with university students as participants, dividing them into four experimental conditions. Our findings suggest that people avoid making unethical decisions, both when these decisions are made public to others and when they remain in the private sphere. This result seems to indicate that the main factor in not making unethical decisions is related to the need to avoid transgressing an internal moral standard of behavior, and that the role of transparency is less relevant than expected. However, we propose that, although the effect of transparency is limited in reducing unethical economic decisions, it should continue to be taken into account in theoretical models that address the reasons people behave unethically.

GROUPS DECISION MAKING WITHIN THE ORGANIZATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anca Stan

2008-12-01

Full Text Available In a highly global market, organizations that have the ability to analyze and rapidly respond to the constantly changing marketplace will have the greatest chance of remaining competitive and profitable. Group decision making is the process of arriving at a judgment based upon the feedback of multiple individuals. Due to the importance of the group decision making process, decision making models can be used to establish a systematic means of developing effective group decision making. Once a decision has been made, the members of the group should be willing to accept it and support its implementations.

Decision-making capacity should not be decisive in emergencies.

Science.gov (United States)

Hubbeling, Dieneke

2014-05-01

Examples of patients with anorexia nervosa, depression or borderline personality disorder who have decision-making capacity as currently operationalized, but refuse treatment, are discussed. It appears counterintuitive to respect their treatment refusal because their wish seems to be fuelled by their illness and the consequences of their refusal of treatment are severe. Some proposed solutions have focused on broadening the criteria for decision-making capacity, either in general or for specific patient groups, but these adjustments might discriminate against particular groups of patients and render the process less transparent. Other solutions focus on preferences expressed when patients are not ill, but this information is often not available. The reason for such difficulties with assessing decision-making capacity is that the underlying psychological processes of normal decision-making are not well known and one cannot differentiate between unwise decisions caused by an illness or other factors. The proposed alternative, set out in this paper, is to allow compulsory treatment of patients with decision-making capacity in cases of an emergency, if the refusal is potentially life threatening, but only for a time-limited period. The argument is also made for investigating hindsight agreement, in particular after compulsory measures.

Decision making generalized by a cumulative probability weighting function

Science.gov (United States)

dos Santos, Lindomar Soares; Destefano, Natália; Martinez, Alexandre Souto

2018-01-01

Typical examples of intertemporal decision making involve situations in which individuals must choose between a smaller reward, but more immediate, and a larger one, delivered later. Analogously, probabilistic decision making involves choices between options whose consequences differ in relation to their probability of receiving. In Economics, the expected utility theory (EUT) and the discounted utility theory (DUT) are traditionally accepted normative models for describing, respectively, probabilistic and intertemporal decision making. A large number of experiments confirmed that the linearity assumed by the EUT does not explain some observed behaviors, as nonlinear preference, risk-seeking and loss aversion. That observation led to the development of new theoretical models, called non-expected utility theories (NEUT), which include a nonlinear transformation of the probability scale. An essential feature of the so-called preference function of these theories is that the probabilities are transformed by decision weights by means of a (cumulative) probability weighting function, w(p) . We obtain in this article a generalized function for the probabilistic discount process. This function has as particular cases mathematical forms already consecrated in the literature, including discount models that consider effects of psychophysical perception. We also propose a new generalized function for the functional form of w. The limiting cases of this function encompass some parametric forms already proposed in the literature. Far beyond a mere generalization, our function allows the interpretation of probabilistic decision making theories based on the assumption that individuals behave similarly in the face of probabilities and delays and is supported by phenomenological models.

Toward a Psychology of Surrogate Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Tunney, Richard J; Ziegler, Fenja V

2015-11-01

In everyday life, many of the decisions that we make are made on behalf of other people. A growing body of research suggests that we often, but not always, make different decisions on behalf of other people than the other person would choose. This is problematic in the practical case of legally designated surrogate decision makers, who may not meet the substituted judgment standard. Here, we review evidence from studies of surrogate decision making and examine the extent to which surrogate decision making accurately predicts the recipient's wishes, or if it is an incomplete or distorted application of the surrogate's own decision-making processes. We find no existing domain-general model of surrogate decision making. We propose a framework by which surrogate decision making can be assessed and a novel domain-general theory as a unifying explanatory concept for surrogate decisions. © The Author(s) 2015.

Information identification, evaluation and utilisation for decision-making by managers in South West Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Omotola Osunrinde

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Background: Managers’ organisational decisions and subsequent actions flow from their understanding of the business environment in which they operate. This study sought to understand how managers in various organisations identify, evaluate and use information for effective current and future decision-making. Objectives: The study focused on the types of information needed by managers for decision-making, the methods used to identify and acquire the information and the sources of information consulted, their satisfaction with the information used and their decision-making behaviours. Methods: The study employed descriptive study design. Simple random sampling was used. A pre-tested self-administered questionnaire was used to gather information from 219 managers, randomly selected from the registers of the Ibadan, Abeokuta and Lagos chapters of Nigerian Institute of Management. Results: Results indicated that the types of information considered very important for decision-making included industry information followed by government policies and economic development/forecasts. Conclusion: Investigation revealed the extent of information identification, information evaluation and information utilisation individually predict the perceived effectiveness of decision-making by the managers. Nevertheless, information evaluation was found to have greater predictive relationship with perceived effectiveness of decision-making than information use and information identification.

Multicriteria decision analysis: Overview and implications for environmental decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Hermans, Caroline M.; Erickson, Jon D.; Erickson, Jon D.; Messner, Frank; Ring, Irene

2007-01-01

Environmental decision making involving multiple stakeholders can benefit from the use of a formal process to structure stakeholder interactions, leading to more successful outcomes than traditional discursive decision processes. There are many tools available to handle complex decision making. Here we illustrate the use of a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) outranking tool (PROMETHEE) to facilitate decision making at the watershed scale, involving multiple stakeholders, multiple criteria, and multiple objectives. We compare various MCDA methods and their theoretical underpinnings, examining methods that most realistically model complex decision problems in ways that are understandable and transparent to stakeholders.