WorldWideScience

Sample records for economic analysis model

  1. Models of Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Adrian Ioana; Tiberiu Socaciu

    2013-01-01

    The article presents specific aspects of management and models for economic analysis. Thus, we present the main types of economic analysis: statistical analysis, dynamic analysis, static analysis, mathematical analysis, psychological analysis. Also we present the main object of the analysis: the technological activity analysis of a company, the analysis of the production costs, the economic activity analysis of a company, the analysis of equipment, the analysis of labor productivity, the anal...

  2. Economic analysis model for total energy and economic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shoji, Katsuhiko; Yasukawa, Shigeru; Sato, Osamu

    1980-09-01

    This report describes framing an economic analysis model developed as a tool of total energy systems. To prospect and analyze future energy systems, it is important to analyze the relation between energy system and economic structure. We prepared an economic analysis model which was suited for this purpose. Our model marks that we can analyze in more detail energy related matters than other economic ones, and can forecast long-term economic progress rather than short-term economic fluctuation. From view point of economics, our model is longterm multi-sectoral economic analysis model of open Leontief type. Our model gave us appropriate results for fitting test and forecasting estimation. (author)

  3. Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis | Water Power | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis technologies, their possible deployment scenarios, and the economic impacts of this deployment. As a research approaches used to estimate direct and indirect economic impacts of offshore renewable energy projects

  4. Economic Modeling and Analysis of Educational Vouchers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epple, Dennis; Romano, Richard

    2012-01-01

    The analysis of educational vouchers has evolved from market-based analogies to models that incorporate distinctive features of the educational environment. These distinctive features include peer effects, scope for private school pricing and admissions based on student characteristics, the linkage of household residential and school choices in…

  5. Generic modelling framework for economic analysis of battery systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    You, Shi; Rasmussen, Claus Nygaard

    2011-01-01

    opportunities, a generic modelling framework is proposed to handle this task. This framework outlines a set of building blocks which are necessary for carrying out the economic analysis of various BS applications. Further, special focus is given on describing how to use the rainflow cycle counting algorithm...... for battery cycle life estimation, since the cycle life plays a central role in the economic analysis of BS. To illustrate the modelling framework, a case study using a Sodium Sulfur Battery (NAS) system with 5-minute regulating service is performed. The economic performances of two dispatch scenarios, a so......Deregulated electricity markets provide opportunities for Battery Systems (BS) to participate in energy arbitrage and ancillary services (regulation, operating reserves, contingency reserves, voltage regulation, power quality etc.). To evaluate the economic viability of BS with different business...

  6. Economic analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1980-06-01

    The Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) mandated that minimum energy efficiency standards be established for classes of refrigerators and refrigerator-freezers, freezers, clothes dryers, water heaters, room air conditioners, home heating equipment, kitchen ranges and ovens, central air conditioners, and furnaces. EPCA requires that standards be designed to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and economically justified. Following the introductory chapter, Chapter Two describes the methodology used in the economic analysis and its relationship to legislative criteria for consumer product efficiency assessment; details how the CPES Value Model systematically compared and evaluated the economic impacts of regulation on the consumer, manufacturer and Nation. Chapter Three briefly displays the results of the analysis and lists the proposed performance standards by product class. Chapter Four describes the reasons for developing a baseline forecast, characterizes the baseline scenario from which regulatory impacts were calculated and summarizes the primary models, data sources and assumptions used in the baseline formulations. Chapter Five summarizes the methodology used to calculate regulatory impacts; describes the impacts of energy performance standards relative to the baseline discussed in Chapter Four. Also discussed are regional standards and other program alternatives to performance standards. Chapter Six describes the procedure for balancing consumer, manufacturer, and national impacts to select standard levels. Details of models and data bases used in the analysis are included in Appendices A through K.

  7. Automated economic analysis model for hazardous waste minimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dharmavaram, S.; Mount, J.B.; Donahue, B.A.

    1990-01-01

    The US Army has established a policy of achieving a 50 percent reduction in hazardous waste generation by the end of 1992. To assist the Army in reaching this goal, the Environmental Division of the US Army Construction Engineering Research Laboratory (USACERL) designed the Economic Analysis Model for Hazardous Waste Minimization (EAHWM). The EAHWM was designed to allow the user to evaluate the life cycle costs for various techniques used in hazardous waste minimization and to compare them to the life cycle costs of current operating practices. The program was developed in C language on an IBM compatible PC and is consistent with other pertinent models for performing economic analyses. The potential hierarchical minimization categories used in EAHWM include source reduction, recovery and/or reuse, and treatment. Although treatment is no longer an acceptable minimization option, its use is widespread and has therefore been addressed in the model. The model allows for economic analysis for minimization of the Army's six most important hazardous waste streams. These include, solvents, paint stripping wastes, metal plating wastes, industrial waste-sludges, used oils, and batteries and battery electrolytes. The EAHWM also includes a general application which can be used to calculate and compare the life cycle costs for minimization alternatives of any waste stream, hazardous or non-hazardous. The EAHWM has been fully tested and implemented in more than 60 Army installations in the United States

  8. Clinical laboratory as an economic model for business performance analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buljanović, Vikica; Patajac, Hrvoje; Petrovecki, Mladen

    2011-08-15

    To perform SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis of a clinical laboratory as an economic model that may be used to improve business performance of laboratories by removing weaknesses, minimizing threats, and using external opportunities and internal strengths. Impact of possible threats to and weaknesses of the Clinical Laboratory at Našice General County Hospital business performance and use of strengths and opportunities to improve operating profit were simulated using models created on the basis of SWOT analysis results. The operating profit as a measure of profitability of the clinical laboratory was defined as total revenue minus total expenses and presented using a profit and loss account. Changes in the input parameters in the profit and loss account for 2008 were determined using opportunities and potential threats, and economic sensitivity analysis was made by using changes in the key parameters. The profit and loss account and economic sensitivity analysis were tools for quantifying the impact of changes in the revenues and expenses on the business operations of clinical laboratory. Results of simulation models showed that operational profit of €470 723 in 2008 could be reduced to only €21 542 if all possible threats became a reality and current weaknesses remained the same. Also, operational gain could be increased to €535 804 if laboratory strengths and opportunities were utilized. If both the opportunities and threats became a reality, the operational profit would decrease by €384 465. The operational profit of the clinical laboratory could be significantly reduced if all threats became a reality and the current weaknesses remained the same. The operational profit could be increased by utilizing strengths and opportunities as much as possible. This type of modeling may be used to monitor business operations of any clinical laboratory and improve its financial situation by implementing changes in the next fiscal

  9. Clinical laboratory as an economic model for business performance analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buljanović, Vikica; Patajac, Hrvoje; Petrovečki, Mladen

    2011-01-01

    Aim To perform SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis of a clinical laboratory as an economic model that may be used to improve business performance of laboratories by removing weaknesses, minimizing threats, and using external opportunities and internal strengths. Methods Impact of possible threats to and weaknesses of the Clinical Laboratory at Našice General County Hospital business performance and use of strengths and opportunities to improve operating profit were simulated using models created on the basis of SWOT analysis results. The operating profit as a measure of profitability of the clinical laboratory was defined as total revenue minus total expenses and presented using a profit and loss account. Changes in the input parameters in the profit and loss account for 2008 were determined using opportunities and potential threats, and economic sensitivity analysis was made by using changes in the key parameters. The profit and loss account and economic sensitivity analysis were tools for quantifying the impact of changes in the revenues and expenses on the business operations of clinical laboratory. Results Results of simulation models showed that operational profit of €470 723 in 2008 could be reduced to only €21 542 if all possible threats became a reality and current weaknesses remained the same. Also, operational gain could be increased to €535 804 if laboratory strengths and opportunities were utilized. If both the opportunities and threats became a reality, the operational profit would decrease by €384 465. Conclusion The operational profit of the clinical laboratory could be significantly reduced if all threats became a reality and the current weaknesses remained the same. The operational profit could be increased by utilizing strengths and opportunities as much as possible. This type of modeling may be used to monitor business operations of any clinical laboratory and improve its financial situation by

  10. The physical and mathematical model of dynamic economic analysis and assessment for NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu Jiming

    1992-01-01

    A set physical and mathematical model of dynamic economic analysis referring to international general sub-item and account of investment and constant money levelized model and combining current economic analysis method in China for nuclear power plant was established. The model can be used in economic analysis not only for nuclear power plant but also for coal-fired power plant and can satisfy demand of doing economic analysis and assessment for nuclear power plant and conventional power plant

  11. Economical analysis based on a simplified model of micro distillery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bristoti, A.; Adams, R.

    1987-01-01

    The investment costs of the hydrate alcohol distillery as well as the energy balance of its production made inviable its diffusion on a small scale. The present economical analysis is based on a simplified model of micro distillery where the reduction on investment costs in based on technical data based on the possibility of the utilization of an hydrate alcohol with a higher water constant than the usual, i. e. around 85 0 GL. The engineering project of this plant eliminates all pumps, all the liquids (water, sugar cane, syrup and wine) are fed by gravity. The bagasse is considered a noble by-product and it is utilized in poultry industry as a substitute of wood dust. All the heat needs of the micro distillery are supplied by wood. (author)

  12. Economic analysis of open space box model utilization in spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammad, Atif F.; Straub, Jeremy

    2015-05-01

    It is a known fact that the amount of data about space that is stored is getting larger on an everyday basis. However, the utilization of Big Data and related tools to perform ETL (Extract, Transform and Load) applications will soon be pervasive in the space sciences. We have entered in a crucial time where using Big Data can be the difference (for terrestrial applications) between organizations underperforming and outperforming their peers. The same is true for NASA and other space agencies, as well as for individual missions and the highly-competitive process of mission data analysis and publication. In most industries, conventional opponents and new candidates alike will influence data-driven approaches to revolutionize and capture the value of Big Data archives. The Open Space Box Model is poised to take the proverbial "giant leap", as it provides autonomic data processing and communications for spacecraft. We can find economic value generated from such use of data processing in our earthly organizations in every sector, such as healthcare, retail. We also can easily find retailers, performing research on Big Data, by utilizing sensors driven embedded data in products within their stores and warehouses to determine how these products are actually used in the real world.

  13. ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC MODELS OF POTATO PRODUCTION IN MONTENEGRO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miomir JOVANOVIC

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The northern region of Montenegro represents a very important resource for agricultural production. However, the depopulation of the analysed area, pronounced in-kind character of production without significant participation of market producers, lack of market research, stronger vertical and horizontal connection between primary production and processing sectors have significant impacts causing the low level of competitiveness of agricultural production. Potato production in the analysed area has recorded positive trends in last ten years. This paper presents economic models of agriculture households on the analysed area from the potatoes production point of view.

  14. Economic analysis of Marine Protected Areas: Bioeconomic Modeling and Economic Valuation Approaches

    OpenAIRE

    Bui, Bich Xuan

    2017-01-01

    The papers 2 and 3 of this thesis are not available in Munin. Paper 2: Xuan, B. B., Sandorf, E. D., Aanesen, M.: “Informing Management Strategies for a Reserve: Results from a Discrete Choice Experiment Survey”. (Manuscript). Paper 3: Xuan, B. B.: “Extractive and Non-extractive Values of a Marine Protected Area: A Bio-economic Model Application". (Manuscript). Marine protected areas (MPAs) are often established for conservation objectives. Benefits provided by MPAs exceed pure biod...

  15. Economic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owen, P.S.; Parker, M.B.; Omberg, R.P.

    1979-03-01

    The methodology used to arrive at the conclusions in the U.S. papers WG 5A-19 and WG 5A-22 with respect to the economics of fast breeders relative to LWR's is developed in detail in this contribution. In addition, sample calculations of the total levelized power cost of a standard LWR at $40/pound for U 3 O 8 and an FBR at a capital cost of 1.5 times that of an LWR are included. The respective total levalized power costs of the above two examples are 21.29 mills/kwh for the standard LWR and 28.48 mills/kwh for the FBR. It should be noted that the economic data used in these analyses are contained in the U.S. contribution, WG 5A-41

  16. User's Guide To CHEAP0 II-Economic Analysis of Stand Prognosis Model Outputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph E. Horn; E. Lee Medema; Ervin G. Schuster

    1986-01-01

    CHEAP0 II provides supplemental economic analysis capability for users of version 5.1 of the Stand Prognosis Model, including recent regeneration and insect outbreak extensions. Although patterned after the old CHEAP0 model, CHEAP0 II has more features and analytic capabilities, especially for analysis of existing and uneven-aged stands....

  17. Model Proposition for the Fiscal Policies Analysis Applied in Economic Field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larisa Preda

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a study about fiscal policy applied in economic development. Correlations between macroeconomics and fiscal indicators signify the first steep in our analysis. Next step is a new model proposal for the fiscal and budgetary choices. This model is applied on the date of the Romanian case.

  18. Economics definitions, methods, models, and analysis procedures for Homeland Security applications.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Loose, Verne William; Vargas, Vanessa N.; Smith, Braeton J.; Warren, Drake E.; Downes, Paula Sue; Eidson, Eric D.; Mackey, Greg Edward

    2010-01-01

    This report gives an overview of the types of economic methodologies and models used by Sandia economists in their consequence analysis work for the National Infrastructure Simulation & Analysis Center and other DHS programs. It describes the three primary resolutions at which analysis is conducted (microeconomic, mesoeconomic, and macroeconomic), the tools used at these three levels (from data analysis to internally developed and publicly available tools), and how they are used individually and in concert with each other and other infrastructure tools.

  19. MULTIREGION: a simulation-forecasting model of BEA economic area population and employment. [Bureau of Economic Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olsen, R.J.; Westley, G.W.; Herzog, H.W. Jr.; Kerley, C.R.; Bjornstad, D.J.; Vogt, D.P.; Bray, L.G.; Grady, S.T.; Nakosteen, R.A.

    1977-10-01

    This report documents the development of MULTIREGION, a computer model of regional and interregional socio-economic development. The MULTIREGION model interprets the economy of each BEA economic area as a labor market, measures all activity in terms of people as members of the population (labor supply) or as employees (labor demand), and simultaneously simulates or forecasts the demands and supplies of labor in all BEA economic areas at five-year intervals. In general the outputs of MULTIREGION are intended to resemble those of the Water Resource Council's OBERS projections and to be put to similar planning and analysis purposes. This report has been written at two levels to serve the needs of multiple audiences. The body of the report serves as a fairly nontechnical overview of the entire MULTIREGION project; a series of technical appendixes provide detailed descriptions of the background empirical studies of births, deaths, migration, labor force participation, natural resource employment, manufacturing employment location, and local service employment used to construct the model.

  20. Modeling imbalanced economic recovery following a natural disaster using input-output analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jun; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Syddall, Mark; Guan, Dabo

    2013-10-01

    Input-output analysis is frequently used in studies of large-scale weather-related (e.g., Hurricanes and flooding) disruption of a regional economy. The economy after a sudden catastrophe shows a multitude of imbalances with respect to demand and production and may take months or years to recover. However, there is no consensus about how the economy recovers. This article presents a theoretical route map for imbalanced economic recovery called dynamic inequalities. Subsequently, it is applied to a hypothetical postdisaster economic scenario of flooding in London around the year 2020 to assess the influence of future shocks to a regional economy and suggest adaptation measures. Economic projections are produced by a macro econometric model and used as baseline conditions. The results suggest that London's economy would recover over approximately 70 months by applying a proportional rationing scheme under the assumption of initial 50% labor loss (with full recovery in six months), 40% initial loss to service sectors, and 10-30% initial loss to other sectors. The results also suggest that imbalance will be the norm during the postdisaster period of economic recovery even though balance may occur temporarily. Model sensitivity analysis suggests that a proportional rationing scheme may be an effective strategy to apply during postdisaster economic reconstruction, and that policies in transportation recovery and in health care are essential for effective postdisaster economic recovery. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Energetic-economic dynamic computational analysis of plants with small capacity - Gera model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Storfer, A.F.; Demanboro, A.C. de; Campello, C.A.G.B.

    1990-01-01

    A methodology and mathematical model for energy and economic analysis of hydroelectric power plants with low and medium capacity are presented. This methodology will be used for isolated or integrated hydroelectric power plants, including plants that part of their produced energy will go to the site market and part will go to regional electric system. (author)

  2. Macro-economic environmental models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wier, M.

    1993-01-01

    In the present report, an introduction to macro-economic environmental models is given. The role of the models as a tool for policy analysis is discussed. Future applications, as well as the limitations given by the data, are brought into focus. The economic-ecological system is described. A set of guidelines for implementation of the system in a traditional economic macro-model is proposed. The characteristics of empirical national and international environmental macro-economic models so far are highlighted. Special attention is paid to main economic causalities and their consequences for the environmental policy recommendations sat by the models. (au) (41 refs.)

  3. Impact Analysis of Economic Linkages of South Korea with North Korea Using a CGE Model

    OpenAIRE

    Kim, Euijune; Shin, Hyewon

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to estimate impacts of core infrastructure investments in North Korea on South and North Koreas. The investment expenditures of core infrastructure projects in North Korea are calibrated as 9.35 billion US$ including highway, railroad and industrial complex. Since South and North Koreas are based on market and planned economies respectively, the Computable General Equilibrium model is applied to the economic analysis of South Korea and an Input-Output Model for th...

  4. Demonstration uncertainty/sensitivity analysis using the health and economic consequence model CRAC2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alpert, D.J.; Iman, R.L.; Johnson, J.D.; Helton, J.C.

    1985-01-01

    This paper summarizes a demonstration uncertainty/sensitivity analysis performed on the reactor accident consequence model CRAC2. The study was performed with uncertainty/sensitivity analysis techniques compiled as part of the MELCOR program. The principal objectives of the study were: 1) to demonstrate the use of the uncertainty/sensitivity analysis techniques on a health and economic consequence model, 2) to test the computer models which implement the techniques, 3) to identify possible difficulties in performing such an analysis, and 4) to explore alternative means of analyzing, displaying, and describing the results. Demonstration of the applicability of the techniques was the motivation for performing this study; thus, the results should not be taken as a definitive uncertainty analysis of health and economic consequences. Nevertheless, significant insights on health and economic consequence analysis can be drawn from the results of this type of study. Latin hypercube sampling (LHS), a modified Monte Carlo technique, was used in this study. LHS generates a multivariate input structure in which all the variables of interest are varied simultaneously and desired correlations between variables are preserved. LHS has been shown to produce estimates of output distribution functions that are comparable with results of larger random samples

  5. Regression analysis understanding and building business and economic models using Excel

    CERN Document Server

    Wilson, J Holton

    2012-01-01

    The technique of regression analysis is used so often in business and economics today that an understanding of its use is necessary for almost everyone engaged in the field. This book will teach you the essential elements of building and understanding regression models in a business/economic context in an intuitive manner. The authors take a non-theoretical treatment that is accessible even if you have a limited statistical background. It is specifically designed to teach the correct use of regression, while advising you of its limitations and teaching about common pitfalls. This book describe

  6. Modeling the economic costs of disasters and recovery: analysis using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, W.; Li, N.; Wu, J.-D.; Hao, X.-L.

    2014-04-01

    Disaster damages have negative effects on the economy, whereas reconstruction investment has positive effects. The aim of this study is to model economic causes of disasters and recovery involving the positive effects of reconstruction activities. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is a promising approach because it can incorporate these two kinds of shocks into a unified framework and furthermore avoid the double-counting problem. In order to factor both shocks into the CGE model, direct loss is set as the amount of capital stock reduced on the supply side of the economy; a portion of investments restores the capital stock in an existing period; an investment-driven dynamic model is formulated according to available reconstruction data, and the rest of a given country's saving is set as an endogenous variable to balance the fixed investment. The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake is selected as a case study to illustrate the model, and three scenarios are constructed: S0 (no disaster occurs), S1 (disaster occurs with reconstruction investment) and S2 (disaster occurs without reconstruction investment). S0 is taken as business as usual, and the differences between S1 and S0 and that between S2 and S0 can be interpreted as economic losses including reconstruction and excluding reconstruction, respectively. The study showed that output from S1 is found to be closer to real data than that from S2. Economic loss under S2 is roughly 1.5 times that under S1. The gap in the economic aggregate between S1 and S0 is reduced to 3% at the end of government-led reconstruction activity, a level that should take another four years to achieve under S2.

  7. Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

    2008-12-01

    Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

  8. Parametric sensitivity analysis of an agro-economic model of management of irrigation water

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Ouadi, Ihssan; Ouazar, Driss; El Menyari, Younesse

    2015-04-01

    The current work aims to build an analysis and decision support tool for policy options concerning the optimal allocation of water resources, while allowing a better reflection on the issue of valuation of water by the agricultural sector in particular. Thus, a model disaggregated by farm type was developed for the rural town of Ait Ben Yacoub located in the east Morocco. This model integrates economic, agronomic and hydraulic data and simulates agricultural gross margin across in this area taking into consideration changes in public policy and climatic conditions, taking into account the competition for collective resources. To identify the model input parameters that influence over the results of the model, a parametric sensitivity analysis is performed by the "One-Factor-At-A-Time" approach within the "Screening Designs" method. Preliminary results of this analysis show that among the 10 parameters analyzed, 6 parameters affect significantly the objective function of the model, it is in order of influence: i) Coefficient of crop yield response to water, ii) Average daily gain in weight of livestock, iii) Exchange of livestock reproduction, iv) maximum yield of crops, v) Supply of irrigation water and vi) precipitation. These 6 parameters register sensitivity indexes ranging between 0.22 and 1.28. Those results show high uncertainties on these parameters that can dramatically skew the results of the model or the need to pay particular attention to their estimates. Keywords: water, agriculture, modeling, optimal allocation, parametric sensitivity analysis, Screening Designs, One-Factor-At-A-Time, agricultural policy, climate change.

  9. An Idealized Cognitive Model Analysis of Metaphors in American Economic News Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Yang

    2018-03-01

    On the basis of the theoretical framework of Lakoff’s Conceptual Metaphor, the paper researches into the cognitive model of conceptual metaphors in American Economic News Reports. Moreover, the paper tries to analyze economic discourse by the application of Idealized Cognitive Model of its metaphorical thinking combined with cultural model and reflect the ideology of the media. It aims to help English learners ponder the implied meaning the economic news reports conveyed and take a new look at metaphors between the lines.

  10. Numerical modeling of economic uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schjær-Jacobsen, Hans

    2007-01-01

    Representation and modeling of economic uncertainty is addressed by different modeling methods, namely stochastic variables and probabilities, interval analysis, and fuzzy numbers, in particular triple estimates. Focusing on discounted cash flow analysis numerical results are presented, comparisons...... are made between alternative modeling methods, and characteristics of the methods are discussed....

  11. ALMR deployment economic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delene, J.G.; Fuller, L.C.; Hudson, C.R.

    1993-06-01

    This analysis seeks to model and evaluate the economics of the use of Advanced Liquid Metal Reactors (ALMR) as a component of this country's future electricity generation mix. The ALMR concept has the ability to utilize as fuel the fissile material contained in previously irradiated nuclear fuel (i.e., spent fuel). While not a requirement for the successful deployment of ALMR power plant technology, the reprocessing of spent fuel from light water reactors (LWR) is necessary for any rapid introduction of ALMR power plants. In addition, the reprocessing of LWR spent fuel may reduce the number of high level waste repositories needed in the future by burning the long-lived actinides produced in the fission process. With this study, the relative economics of a number of potential scenarios related to these issues are evaluated. While not encompassing the full range of all possibilities, the cases reported here provide an indication of the potential costs, timings, and relative economic attractiveness of ALMR deployment

  12. METHODS AND MODELS FOR ANALYSIS OF THE ORGANIZATIONAL ECONOMICS ACTIVITY USED FOR DEVELOPMENT OF INFORMATICS SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TEODORA VĂTUIU

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Study of organizational activity and highlighting problem situations that require specific solutions, require a detailed analysis of the models defined for the real system of the economic companies, regarded not as a sum of assets, but as organizations in which there are activities related into processes. In addition to the usual approach of using modeling languages in the development of information systems, in this paper we intend to present some examples that demonstrate the usefulness of a standard modeling language (UML to analyze organizational activities and to report problem situations that may occur in data management registered on primary documents or in processes that bring together activities. Examples that have been focused on a travel agency can be extrapolated to any other organization, and the diagrams can be used in different contexts, depending on the complexity of the activities identified.

  13. Matrix Methods and Models of Economic Analysis in the Marketing Activity of Higher Educational Establishments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Stebliuk

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available On the present stage of the development of educational environment, it is necessary to use the scientific tools for understanding the market patterns of the interaction of demand and supply of educational services, which will allow not only to navigate the consumer preferences but also to form them. It is in these circumstances that it is extremely important to study changes in the volume of demand for educational services in order to adapt them to the system of higher education. The aim of the article is to substantiate the theoretical positions and develop practical recommendations for the definition of the competitive marketing strategy of higher education organizations in the market of educational services with the help of modern approaches and methods of economic-mathematical modeling. The practical significance of the obtained results is the introduction of methodological provisions for forecasting the demand and supply of educational services for higher educational establishments. The complexity and interdependence of managerial problems in the system of higher education require new ideas and approaches, which necessitates the search for new definite solutions, namely: the research paper offers the method of optimal distribution of budgetary places of the university by means of practical application of the theory of system constraints and the theory of fuzzy sets. Along with that, the calculation of the optimal number of students of the corresponding specialty with the help of cluster analysis has been carried out. In addition, an important place for improvement and development is taken by the economics and mathematical methods and methods of linear programming, they are effective means of identifying the most influential factors in achieving the goals of a higher educational establishment and justifying the marketing strategy of its development in modern conditions. To predict the quantitative values of social and economic indicators

  14. A regional scale modeling framework combining biogeochemical model with life cycle and economic analysis for integrated assessment of cropping systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabatabaie, Seyed Mohammad Hossein; Bolte, John P; Murthy, Ganti S

    2018-06-01

    The goal of this study was to integrate a crop model, DNDC (DeNitrification-DeComposition), with life cycle assessment (LCA) and economic analysis models using a GIS-based integrated platform, ENVISION. The integrated model enables LCA practitioners to conduct integrated economic analysis and LCA on a regional scale while capturing the variability of soil emissions due to variation in regional factors during production of crops and biofuel feedstocks. In order to evaluate the integrated model, the corn-soybean cropping system in Eagle Creek Watershed, Indiana was studied and the integrated model was used to first model the soil emissions and then conduct the LCA as well as economic analysis. The results showed that the variation in soil emissions due to variation in weather is high causing some locations to be carbon sink in some years and source of CO 2 in other years. In order to test the model under different scenarios, two tillage scenarios were defined: 1) conventional tillage (CT) and 2) no tillage (NT) and analyzed with the model. The overall GHG emissions for the corn-soybean cropping system was simulated and results showed that the NT scenario resulted in lower soil GHG emissions compared to CT scenario. Moreover, global warming potential (GWP) of corn ethanol from well to pump varied between 57 and 92gCO 2 -eq./MJ while GWP under the NT system was lower than that of the CT system. The cost break-even point was calculated as $3612.5/ha in a two year corn-soybean cropping system and the results showed that under low and medium prices for corn and soybean most of the farms did not meet the break-even point. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Economic analysis of light brown apple moth using GIS and quantitative modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glenn Fowler; Lynn Garrett; Alison Neeley; Roger Magarey; Dan Borchert; Brian. Spears

    2011-01-01

    We conducted an economic analysis of the light brown apple moth (LBAM), (piphyas postvittana (Walker)), whose presence in California has resulted in a regulatory program. Our objective was to quantitatively characterize the economic costs to apple, grape, orange, and pear crops that would result from LBAM's introduction into the continental...

  16. An Economic Aspect of the AVOID Programme: Analysis Using the AIM/CGE Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumoto, Ken'ichi; Masui, Toshihiko

    2010-05-01

    This presentation purposes to show the results of the analysis that the AIM/CGE [Global] model contributed to Work Stream 1 of the AVOID programme. Three economic models participate in this WS to analyze the economic aspects of defined climate policies, and the AIM/CGE [Global] model is one of them. The reference scenario is SRES A1B and five policy scenarios (2016.R2.H, 2016.R4.L, 2016.R5.L, 2030.R2.H, and 2030.R5.L) are considered. The climate policies are expressed as emissions pathways of several gases such as greenhouse gases and aerosols. The AIM/CGE [Global] model is a recursive dynamic global CGE model with 21 industrial sectors and 24 world regions. These definitions are based on the GTAP6 database and it is used as the economic data of the base year. Some important characteristics of this model can be summarized as follows: power generation by various sources (from non-renewables to renewables) are considered; CCS technology is modeled; biomass energy (both traditional and purpose-grown) production and consumption are included; not only CO2 emissions but also other gases are considered; international markets are modeled for international trade of some fossil fuels; relationships between the costs and resource reserves of fossil fuels are modeled. The model is run with 10-year time steps until 2100. For the reference case, there are no constraints and the model is run based on the drivers (assumptions on GDP and population for A1B) and AEEI. The reference case does not have the same emissions pathways as the prescribed emissions for A1B in AVOID. For scenario cases, the model is run under emissions constraints. In particular, for each policy scenario, the constraint on each gas in each 10-year step is derived. The percentage reduction in emissions that occurs between the AVOID A1B scenario and the particular policy scenario, for each gas in each 10-year period is first calculated, and then these percentage reductions are applied to the AIM reference case

  17. Firm dynamic analysis for urban land use and economic growth modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Che'Man, N.; Sabri, S.; Hosni, N.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2013-01-01

    In urban growth processes, urbanisation is highly influenced by economic growth which triggers the dynamics of economic agents and land uses. This is consisted of complex subsystems which need sophisticated methods like agent-based modelling and simulation to understand the pattern, behaviour and

  18. Analysis of Economic Burden of Seasonal Influenza: An Actuarial Based Conceptual Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. S. N. Perera

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Analysing the economic burden of the seasonal influenza is highly essential due to the large number of outbreaks in recent years. Mathematical and actuarial models can be considered as management tools to understand the dynamical behavior, predict the risk, and compute it. This study is an attempt to develop conceptual model to investigate the economic burden due to seasonal influenza. The compartment SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible model is used to capture the dynamical behavior of influenza. Considering the current investment and future medical care expenditure as premium payment and benefit (claim, respectively, the insurance and actuarial based conceptual model is proposed to model the present economic burden due to the spread of influenza. Simulation is carried out to demonstrate the variation of the present economic burden with respect to model parameters. The sensitivity of the present economic burden is studied with respect to the risk of disease spread. The basic reproduction is used to identify the risk of disease spread. Impact of the seasonality is studied by introducing the seasonally varying infection rate. The proposed model provides theoretical background to investigate the economic burden of seasonal influenza.

  19. Quantitative Analysis of Intra Urban Growth Modeling using socio economic agents by combining cellular automata model with agent based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, V. K.; Jha, A. K.; Gupta, K.; Srivastav, S. K.

    2017-12-01

    Recent studies indicate that there is a significant improvement in the urban land use dynamics through modeling at finer spatial resolutions. Geo-computational models such as cellular automata and agent based model have given evident proof regarding the quantification of the urban growth pattern with urban boundary. In recent studies, socio- economic factors such as demography, education rate, household density, parcel price of the current year, distance to road, school, hospital, commercial centers and police station are considered to the major factors influencing the Land Use Land Cover (LULC) pattern of the city. These factors have unidirectional approach to land use pattern which makes it difficult to analyze the spatial aspects of model results both quantitatively and qualitatively. In this study, cellular automata model is combined with generic model known as Agent Based Model to evaluate the impact of socio economic factors on land use pattern. For this purpose, Dehradun an Indian city is selected as a case study. Socio economic factors were collected from field survey, Census of India, Directorate of economic census, Uttarakhand, India. A 3X3 simulating window is used to consider the impact on LULC. Cellular automata model results are examined for the identification of hot spot areas within the urban area and agent based model will be using logistic based regression approach where it will identify the correlation between each factor on LULC and classify the available area into low density, medium density, high density residential or commercial area. In the modeling phase, transition rule, neighborhood effect, cell change factors are used to improve the representation of built-up classes. Significant improvement is observed in the built-up classes from 84 % to 89 %. However after incorporating agent based model with cellular automata model the accuracy improved from 89 % to 94 % in 3 classes of urban i.e. low density, medium density and commercial classes

  20. Stability analysis on an economic epidemiological model with vaccination Pages : - , and.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avusuglo, Wisdom S; Abdella, Kenzu; Feng, Wenying

    2017-08-01

    In this paper, an economic epidemiological model with vaccination is studied. The stability of the endemic steady-state is analyzed and some bifurcation properties of the system are investigated. It is established that the system exhibits saddle-point and period-doubling bifurcations when adult susceptible individuals are vaccinated. Furthermore, it is shown that susceptible individuals also have the tendency of opting for more number of contacts even if the vaccine is inefficacious and thus causes the disease endemic to increase in the long run. Results from sensitivity analysis with specific disease parameters are also presented. Finally, it is shown that the qualitative behaviour of the system is affected by contact levels.

  1. Demonstration uncertainty/sensitivity analysis using the health and economic consequence model CRAC2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alpert, D.J.; Iman, R.L.; Johnson, J.D.; Helton, J.C.

    1984-12-01

    The techniques for performing uncertainty/sensitivity analyses compiled as part of the MELCOR program appear to be well suited for use with a health and economic consequence model. Two replicate samples of size 50 gave essentially identical results, indicating that for this case, a Latin hypercube sample of size 50 seems adequate to represent the distribution of results. Though the intent of this study was a demonstration of uncertainty/sensitivity analysis techniques, a number of insights relevant to health and economic consequence modeling can be gleaned: uncertainties in early deaths are significantly greater than uncertainties in latent cancer deaths; though the magnitude of the source term is the largest source of variation in estimated distributions of early deaths, a number of additional parameters are also important; even with the release fractions for a full SST1, one quarter of the CRAC2 runs gave no early deaths; and comparison of the estimates of mean early deaths for a full SST1 release in this study with those of recent point estimates for similar conditions indicates that the recent estimates may be significant overestimations of early deaths. Estimates of latent cancer deaths, however, are roughly comparable. An analysis of the type described here can provide insights in a number of areas. First, the variability in the results gives an indication of the potential uncertainty associated with the calculations. Second, the sensitivity of the results to assumptions about the input variables can be determined. Research efforts can then be concentrated on reducing the uncertainty in the variables which are the largest contributors to uncertainty in results

  2. Economic analysis of coal price-electricity price adjustment in China based on the CGE model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He, Y.X.; Zhang, S.L.; Yang, L.Y.; Wang, Y.J.; Wang, J.

    2010-01-01

    In recent years, coal price has risen rapidly, which has also brought a sharp increase in the expenditures of thermal power plants in China. Meantime, the power production price and power retail price have not been adjusted accordingly and a large number of thermal power plants have incurred losses. The power industry is a key industry in the national economy. As such, a thorough analysis and evaluation of the economic influence of the electricity price should be conducted before electricity price adjustment is carried out. This paper analyses the influence of coal price adjustment on the electric power industry, and the influence of electricity price adjustment on the macroeconomy in China based on computable general equilibrium models. The conclusions are as follows: (1) a coal price increase causes a rise in the cost of the electric power industry, but the influence gradually descends with increase in coal price; and (2) an electricity price increase has an adverse influence on the total output, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Electricity price increases have a contractionary effect on economic development and, consequently, electricity price policy making must consequently consider all factors to minimize their adverse influence.

  3. Reasearch on Regional Differences Between China's Economic Growth and Export Trade Based on the Analysis of a Random Effects Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Chen

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the factors that influence the economic growth of the provinces of China by means of a Panel Data Model. Traditional analytical methods of economic growth are compared with a Panel Data Model. The results of empirical research indicate that the changes of fixed assets investment, gross domestic export, and macroeconomic policies will affect China's GDP. It is finally concluded that export is the driving force behind economic growth in China. This conclusion is quite different from traditional analysis.

  4. Economic and Financial Analysis Tools | Energy Analysis | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Economic and Financial Analysis Tools Economic and Financial Analysis Tools Use these economic and . Job and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model Use these easy-to-use, spreadsheet-based tools to analyze the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the

  5. Introducing labour productivity changes into models used for economic impact analysis in tourism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klijs, Jeroen; Peerlings, Jack; Heijman, Wim

    2017-01-01

    In tourism management, traditional input-output models are often applied to calculate economic impacts, including employment impacts. These models imply that increases in output are translated into proportional increases in labour, indicating constant labour productivity. In non-linear input-

  6. Economic communication model set

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zvereva, Olga M.; Berg, Dmitry B.

    2017-06-01

    This paper details findings from the research work targeted at economic communications investigation with agent-based models usage. The agent-based model set was engineered to simulate economic communications. Money in the form of internal and external currencies was introduced into the models to support exchanges in communications. Every model, being based on the general concept, has its own peculiarities in algorithm and input data set since it was engineered to solve the specific problem. Several and different origin data sets were used in experiments: theoretic sets were estimated on the basis of static Leontief's equilibrium equation and the real set was constructed on the basis of statistical data. While simulation experiments, communication process was observed in dynamics, and system macroparameters were estimated. This research approved that combination of an agent-based and mathematical model can cause a synergetic effect.

  7. Advanced Economic Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Marc W.; Laing, William

    2013-01-01

    An Economic Analysis (EA) is a systematic approach to the problem of choosing the best method of allocating scarce resources to achieve a given objective. An EA helps guide decisions on the "worth" of pursuing an action that departs from status quo ... an EA is the crux of decision-support.

  8. Energy Production and Regional Economic Growth in China: A More Comprehensive Analysis Using a Panel Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaobin Liu

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available China has witnessed a fast economic growth in the recent two decades. However, the heavy energy exploitation seems to show a negative relation to regional economic growth. Thus, the issue is whether the energy production is a curse or blessing for the regional economic growth in China. The present study deploys a comprehensive approach to rigorously prove the validity of a proposed panel data model that includes a second generation panel unit root test and panel cointegration and a spatial panel model. The results from the second generation panel unit root test and panel cointegration allowing for cross-sectional dependences show the differenced series are stationary and there exists a cointegration relationship among these variables for all sub-regions. The results from the spatial panel data model support the conjecture of the spatial dependent and show that there is a “resource curse” only for the Western region and Central region in China.

  9. Analysis of financial support for photovoltaic system installation with the economic simulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Imamura, E.; Uchiyama, Y.

    1994-01-01

    The authors developed a penetration method of dispersed generation technologies and tried to investigate economic simulation on photovoltaic systems. The model is composed of several analysis modules; a technology application module, a regional meteorology module, cost modules such as capital cost, power generation cost, marginal cost and avoided cost, and a logistic penetration module. The database management system of application forms, meteorological data, energy demand and equipment costs is also developed to support the model. The main purpose of the study is to make clear impacts to the power supply configuration and cost/benefit effects when PV systems are installed into several different sectors in Japan. The ultimate potential of PV system is 235, 103MWp and its market potential is 15,172 MWp in Japan. Market penetration highly depends on cost learning factors of several components of PV system. The installed capacity with 50% subsidy is 5 times larger than that with 67%. In conclusion, it is feasible for government or utilities to financially support the promotion and installation of PV systems as the electricity supply system

  10. Energy Tax versus Carbon Tax. A quantitative macro economical analysis with the HERMES/MIDAS models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karadeloglou, P.

    1992-01-01

    The idea of imposing a tax has been recently put forward as a policy-instrument to induce substitutions aiming at reducing CO[sub 2] overall emissions. One can distinguish two options: recycle tax revenues for energy system restructuring (supply or demand restructuring); or use the corresponding revenues in order to reduce the negative impacts caused on the economic activity by the introduction of the tax. Several papers dealing with only the macroeconomic aspects of the environmental problems have been written. These papers neglect more or less the energy sphere and consider that the energy feedback effects are very small. Macroeconomic impacts of the carbon tax have been examined for the United Kingdom and for the four big European countries elsewhere. In this paper a synthesis of both the energy and the macroeconomic approaches is realized. The approach adopted is global and tries to evaluate the impacts on both the economic and energy system. The main question examined is the effectiveness and impacts of fiscal policy on CO[sub 2] emission and the effects of the adoption of an accommodating policy. Thus, not only the effects of imposing an energy or carbon tax are examined, but also the effects of introducing accommodating measures are studied. The analysis is effected by using the HERMES-MIDAS linked system of models and is limited in analyzing the effects of carbon and energy taxes and the reduction of direct taxes and is effected for four countries namely France, Federal Republic of Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom. In section 2 policy scenarios are described while in sections three and four the results of the policy simulations are presented. In section five we compare the differences of two taxes (energy tax and carbon tax) and in section six the reduction of direct taxation as an accommodating measure is examined. 27 tabs., 10 refs

  11. Energy Tax versus Carbon Tax. A quantitative macro economical analysis with the HERMES/MIDAS models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karadeloglou, P. [National Technical University of Athens (Greece)

    1992-03-01

    The idea of imposing a tax has been recently put forward as a policy-instrument to induce substitutions aiming at reducing CO{sub 2} overall emissions. One can distinguish two options: recycle tax revenues for energy system restructuring (supply or demand restructuring); or use the corresponding revenues in order to reduce the negative impacts caused on the economic activity by the introduction of the tax. Several papers dealing with only the macroeconomic aspects of the environmental problems have been written. These papers neglect more or less the energy sphere and consider that the energy feedback effects are very small. Macroeconomic impacts of the carbon tax have been examined for the United Kingdom and for the four big European countries elsewhere. In this paper a synthesis of both the energy and the macroeconomic approaches is realized. The approach adopted is global and tries to evaluate the impacts on both the economic and energy system. The main question examined is the effectiveness and impacts of fiscal policy on CO{sub 2} emission and the effects of the adoption of an accommodating policy. Thus, not only the effects of imposing an energy or carbon tax are examined, but also the effects of introducing accommodating measures are studied. The analysis is effected by using the HERMES-MIDAS linked system of models and is limited in analyzing the effects of carbon and energy taxes and the reduction of direct taxes and is effected for four countries namely France, Federal Republic of Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom. In section 2 policy scenarios are described while in sections three and four the results of the policy simulations are presented. In section five we compare the differences of two taxes (energy tax and carbon tax) and in section six the reduction of direct taxation as an accommodating measure is examined. 27 tabs., 10 refs.

  12. Controlling highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks : An epidemiological and economic model analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Backer, J. A.; van Roermund, H. J W; Fischer, Egil; van Asseldonk, M. A P M; Bergevoet, R. H M

    2015-01-01

    Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) can cause large losses for the poultry sector and for animal disease controlling authorities, as well as risks for animal and human welfare. In the current simulation approach epidemiological and economic models are combined to compare different

  13. Economic analysis of an epilepsy outreach model of care in a university hospital setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maloney, Eimer; McGinty, Ronan N; Costello, Daniel J

    2017-07-01

    The prevalence of epilepsy in people with intellectual disability is higher than in the general population and prevalence rates increase with increasing levels of disability. Prevalence rates of epilepsy are highest among those living in residential care. The healthcare needs of people with intellectual disability and epilepsy are complex and deserve special consideration in terms of healthcare provision and access to specialist epilepsy clinics, which are usually held in acute hospital campuses. This patient population is at risk of suboptimal care because of significant difficulties accessing specialist epilepsy care which is typically delivered in the environs of acute hospitals. In 2014, the epilepsy service at Cork University Hospital established an Epilepsy Outreach Service providing regular, ambulatory outpatient follow up at residential care facilities in Cork city and county in an effort to improve access to care, reduce the burden and expense of patient and carer travel to hospital outpatient appointments, and to provide a dedicated specialist phone service for epilepsy related queries in order to reduce emergency room visits when possible. We present the findings of an economic analysis of the outreach service model of care compared to the traditional hospital outpatient service and demonstrate significant cost savings and improved access to care with this model. Ideally these cost savings should be used to develop novel ways to enhance epilepsy care for persons with disability. We propose that this model of care can be more suitable for persons with disability living in residential care who are at risk of losing access to specialist epilepsy care. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Analysis of carbon mitigation technology to 2050 in Japan through integrated energy economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Komiyama, Ryoichi; Suzuki, Kengo; Nagatomi, Yu; Matsuo, Yuji; Suehiro, Shigeru

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes the outline of integrated energy economic model and calculated result concerning the outlook of energy and carbon dioxide emissions in Japan to 2050. The energy model developed in this paper is integrated one which consistently combines econometric model endogenously generating socio-economic outlook and bottom-up type technology model, MARKAL, identifying cost-minimizing optimal mix of various energy technologies. In reference scenario which imposes no carbon emissions constraint, CO 2 emission in 2050 will decrease by approximately 40% from the level of emissions in 2005. In carbon-constraints scenario, imposing emissions cap of 60% reduction by 2050 from the emissions in 2005, natural gas-fired power plant equipped with CCS and renewable energy are expected to expand its portion in power generation mix. In transportation sector on this scenario, clean energy vehicles such as electric vehicle (EV) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (FCV) will be deployed and contribute to mitigate CO 2 emissions. (author)

  15. Preliminary economic analysis of poultry litter gasification option with a simple transportation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheth, Atul C; English, Jennifer

    2005-04-01

    Several environmental issues are related to the disposal of poultry litter. In an effort to provide a more environmentally friendly alternative than landfill disposal or spreading as a soil amendment, work has been carried out previously at the University of Tennessee Space Institute (UTSI). This past UTSI work was concentrated on developing a catalytic steam gasification concept to produce energy from poultry litter. In the past UTSI studies, preliminary design and economics for a stationary, centralized gasification plant capable of processing approximately 100 ton/day of poultry litter were developed. However, in this preliminary design the economic impact of transporting litter to a centralized gasification plant location was not addressed. To determine the preliminary impact of transporting the poultry litter on the overall economics of this energy conversion plant design, a simple transportation model was developed. This model was used in conjunction with the earlier plant design prepared at UTSI to determine the economic feasibility of a centralized, stationary poultry litter gasification plant. To do so, major variables such as traveling distance, plant feed rate (or capacity), fluctuations in the sales price of the product gas (that means value of the energy), population density of poultry farms, impact of tipping fees, and cost of litter were varied. The study showed that for plant with a capacity of 1000 ton/day to be able to withstand several changes in economic conditions and sustain itself, the poultry farm density would need to be approximately 0.3 houses/mi2. Smaller plants would need either a higher energy price or some kind of subsidy to be economically feasible.

  16. Modeling, performance analysis and economic feasibility of a mirror-augmented photovoltaic system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fortunato, B.; Torresi, M.; Deramo, A.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Mathematical modeling for the energy yield in Mirror Augmented PV systems. • Simplified analytical expression for skyview factor applicable to MAPV. • Economic appraisal of MAPV systems: NPV, DPBP, IRR and LCC. - Abstract: In the last years, solar photovoltaic (PV) systems have had great impetus with research and demonstration projects, both in Italy and other European countries. The main problems with solar PV are the cost of solar electricity, which is still higher compared with other renewables (such as wind or biomass), due to the cost of semi-conductors, and the low conversion efficiency. However, PV panel prices are rapidly decreasing benefiting from favorable economies of scale. For instance, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) the US average levelized costs for plants entering service in the 2018 should be 144.3$/MW h for solar PV, whereas 111.0$/MW h for biomass and 86.6$/MW h for wind (Levelized Cost of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook, 2013). In order to increase the electric yield of PV modules (which can be even doubled with respect to constant tilt configurations), without significantly increasing the system costs, it was decided to consider the addition of inclined mirrors at both sides of the PV modules, so as to deflect more solar rays towards them, as in Mirror-Augmented Photovoltaic (MAPV) systems. The system preserves its constructive simplicity with commercial flat PV modules even though dual axis tracker must be implemented, since MAPV systems harness mainly the direct radiation. The performance analysis of MAPV systems starts from the calculation of the global irradiation on the surface of the PV module which is a sum of the direct sunlight on it and the irradiation reflected by the mirrors. A mathematical model of a MAPV system is presented, which takes into account not only the increase of direct (or beam) radiation, due to the mirrors, but also the reduction of both the diffuse

  17. Findings and recommendations of the ONWI peer review of the SocioEconomic Analysis of Repository Siting (SEARS) modeling system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cluett, C.; Bjornstad, D.; DeVeny, G.; Ellis, C.B.; Goldstone, S.E.; Ritchey, P.N.; Winter, R.

    1985-12-01

    A Peer Review Group was convened by the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (ONWI) of the Battelle Project Management Division (BPMD) to provide an outside professional assessment of the SocioEconomic Analysis of Repository Siting (SEARS) modeling system. The SEARS model is intended to provide detailed, site-specific projections by jurisdiction and political subdivision of the economic, demographic, infrastructure, and fiscal effects of constructing, operating, and decommissioning a geologic repository for the isolation of nuclear waste in one or more locations. In addition, it is expected to aid in the indentification of appropriate local correction actions and to aid in monitoring socioeconomic changes. The SEARS model will address program-related issues, local concerns, and statutory requirements relating to economic-demographic impacts; employ technically defensible methods and procedures; be adequately and appropriately documented, verified, and validated; and provide results that are consistent and replicable

  18. Modeling recent economic debates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skiadas, Christos H.

    The previous years' disaster in the stock markets all over the world and the resulting economic crisis lead to serious criticisms of the various models used. It was evident that large fluctuations and sudden losses may occur even in the case of a well organized and supervised context as it looks to be the European Union. In order to explain the economic systems, we explore models of interacting and conflicting populations. The populations are conflicting into the same environment (a Stock Market or a Group of Countries as the EU). Three models where introduced 1) the Lotka-Volterra 2) the Lanchester or the Richardson model and 3) a new model for two conflicting populations. These models assume immediate interaction between the two conflicting populations. This is usually not the case in a stock market or between countries as delays in the information process arise. The main rules present include mutual interaction between adopters, potential adopters, word-of-mouth communication and of course by taking into consideration the innovation diffusion process. In a previous paper (Skiadas, 2010 [9]) we had proposed and analyzed a model including mutual interaction with delays due to the innovation diffusion process. The model characteristics where expressed by third order terms providing four characteristic symmetric stationary points. In this paper we summarize the previous results and we analyze the case of a non-symmetric case where the leading part receives the information immediately while the second part receives the information following a delay mechanism due to the innovation diffusion process (the spread of information) which can be expressed by a third order term. In the later case the non-symmetric process leads to gains of the leading part while the second part oscillates between gains and losses during time.

  19. A hydrologic-economic modeling approach for analysis of urban water supply dynamics in Chennai, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivasan, Veena; Gorelick, Steven M.; Goulder, Lawrence

    2010-07-01

    In this paper, we discuss a challenging water resources problem in a developing world city, Chennai, India. The goal is to reconstruct past system behavior and diagnose the causes of a major water crisis. In order to do this, we develop a hydrologic-engineering-economic model to address the complexity of urban water supply arising from consumers' dependence on multiple interconnected sources of water. We integrate different components of the urban water system: water flowing into the reservoir system; diversion and distribution by the public water utility; groundwater flow in the aquifer beneath the city; supply, demand, and prices in the informal tanker-truck-based water market; and consumer behavior. Both the economic and physical impacts of consumers' dependence on multiple sources of water are quantified. The model is calibrated over the period 2002-2006 using a range of hydrologic and socio-economic data. The model's results highlight the inadequacy of the reservoir system and the buffering role played by the urban aquifer and consumers' coping investments during multiyear droughts.

  20. Economic Modelling in Institutional Economic Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wadim Strielkowski

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Our paper is centered around the formation of theory of institutional modelling that includes principles and ideas reflecting the laws of societal development within the framework of institutional economic theory. We scrutinize and discuss the scientific principles of this institutional modelling that are increasingly postulated by the classics of institutional theory and find their way into the basics of the institutional economics. We propose scientific ideas concerning the new innovative approaches to institutional modelling. These ideas have been devised and developed on the basis of the results of our own original design, as well as on the formalisation and measurements of economic institutions, their functioning and evolution. Moreover, we consider the applied aspects of the institutional theory of modelling and employ them in our research for formalizing our results and maximising the practical outcome of our paper. Our results and findings might be useful for the researchers and stakeholders searching for the systematic and comprehensive description of institutional level modelling, the principles involved in this process and the main provisions of the institutional theory of economic modelling.

  1. Thermochemical production of liquid fuels from biomass: Thermo-economic modeling, process design and process integration analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tock, Laurence; Gassner, Martin; Marechal, Francois

    2010-01-01

    A detailed thermo-economic model combining thermodynamics with economic analysis and considering different technological alternatives for the thermochemical production of liquid fuels from lignocellulosic biomass is presented. Energetic and economic models for the production of Fischer-Tropsch fuel (FT), methanol (MeOH) and dimethyl ether (DME) by means of biomass drying with steam or flue gas, directly or indirectly heated fluidized bed or entrained flow gasification, hot or cold gas cleaning, fuel synthesis and upgrading are reviewed and developed. The process is integrated and the optimal utility system is computed. The competitiveness of the different process options is compared systematically with regard to energetic, economic and environmental considerations. At several examples, it is highlighted that process integration is a key element that allows for considerably increasing the performance by optimal utility integration and energy conversion. The performance computations of some exemplary technology scenarios of integrated plants yield overall energy efficiencies of 59.8% (crude FT-fuel), 52.5% (MeOH) and 53.5% (DME), and production costs of 89, 128 and 113 Euro MWh -1 on fuel basis. The applied process design approach allows to evaluate the economic competitiveness compared to fossil fuels, to study the influence of the biomass and electricity price and to project for different plant capacities. Process integration reveals in particular potential energy savings and waste heat valorization. Based on this work, the most promising options for the polygeneration of fuel, power and heat will be determined in a future thermo-economic optimization.

  2. Catastrophic loss risks: An economic and legal analysis, and a model state statute

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, M.B.

    1984-01-01

    Catastrophic loss risk producing facilities or activities are defined as those human enterprises which are theoretically capable of producing some credible event which entails extremely large losses of human life, health, or property. Two examples of catastrophic loss risk producing facilities are examined, commercial nuclear power plants and LNG terminals. These two types of facilities appear to produce a type of externality in that they impose uncompensated loss risk costs on neighbors. Further, these two types of facilities may be quite dependent upon the subsidies implicit in these externalities for their continued economic operation. A model state statute is proposed which would use insurance premiums as an unbiased source of probability and outcome estimates in order to eliminate this externality and the resulting subsidy, and as a way of improving the present situation within certain economic limits

  3. Economic analysis and prospective simulation in the low carbon town planing. Application of TRANUS+ model to Grenoble city

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saujot, Mathieu

    2013-01-01

    Strategic spatial planning in France is currently given a rising importance for environmental and climate issues. Is this tool really able to reduce urban sprawl and produce an efficient framework for reducing transport emissions? What are the potential contributions of economic analysis and prospective modelling to planning? To answer these questions, we developed a study on the contributions of economic tools to planning into the broader context of political and administrative reforms in France. We then produced a critical analysis of current planning practices and attempted to define the conditions for a better integration of economic analysis into planning processes and methods. For our case study on the Grenoble urban area, we built and applied a series of economic tools able to inform decision-making on local climate policies in the framework of urban planning. In addition to being the first implementation of the integrated transport - land-use model TRANUS in France, this study further links the TRANUS model to an original economic methodology to obtain a tool we call TRANUS+. This tool is able to take into account the systemic nature of cities and then help to define better transport policies, notably by producing marginal abatement cost curves useful at the urban level. To have a more complete view of urban planning and the way in which it can be improved, we investigated several issues from a planning perspective: the choice of modelling tool and the role of cost-benefit analysis, energy poverty in the transport sector and electric vehicle deployment. (author) [fr

  4. PLANNING AND MODEL CUBAN ECONOMIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenilia Mariela Villalón-Madrazo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the Revolution´s Triumph the country assumes that the planning is the axis, as instrument for the economic acting and of the constant development of the socialist relationships of production and it traces the rules required for the best operation in the Cuban economy, and it implants with these concepts the centralized economic pattern that responded to the existent outline in the Soviet Union and the European socialist countries, of centralized planning based on the material balances. In the current situation of the Cuban economy it is thought about bringing up to date the economic pattern in which will stay as priority the planning and not the market. Leaving what it is mentioned above, presently in this work is carried out the analysis of the economic models in Cuba and its linking with the planning, with the objective of giving to know how the pattern economic Cuban is implanted from the first years of the revolution and it has always been the planning its fundamental axis, and as the same one it has left modernizing during the 53 years of the Revolution. It has been carried out an analysis framed approximately in 10 year-old periods pointing out the internal and external factors that have impacted in the Cuban pattern, their adjustments and the role of planning. 

  5. Using Agent-Based Models in the Analysis and Forecast of Socio-Economic Development of Territories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vitalii Nikolaevich Makoveev

    2016-11-01

    by developers of agent-based models of socio-economic development and prospects for further research in this field. It has been established that the agent-based approach to the modeling of socio-economic development of territories is very promising, it helps improve the efficiency of forecasting regional development and management decisions due to a very detailed and realistic reconstruction of the internal structure of a region in the form of separate independent economic entities that interact with each other and with external environment, and also due to the possibility of fast processing and analysis of large amounts of data

  6. Hydro-Economic based Model of Damage and Loss Analysis of Winongo River Flood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Rifki Hardika

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Winongo River experienced considerably high flow that caused overflows along the downstream part of the river and some inundation at the surrounding area. The inundation has reached up to 1 m spread over the Tegalrejo Sub-district of Yogyakarta City and swept two houses. This paper analyses the damage and loss due to the flood by taking into account the hydraulics phenomena and the economic impact at the inundation area. A hydraulics model has been developed to study the flow characteristics during the flood of Winongo River, especially in the river reach in Tegalrejo Sub-district. The hazard-induced damages in the flooded area were identified and the economic impacts were studied. Several related software have been utilized to analyse the damage and loss of the disaster, including the HEC-RAS 5.0, ArcGIS, HEC-GeoRAS and InaSAFE. Through the integration of the characteristics of both flood phenomena and the economic factor, the damage and loss were then analysed and the Average Annual Damage (AAD of approximately IDR 88,750,000,000 was obtained.

  7. Modeling and Economic Analysis of Power Grid Operations in a Water Constrained System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Z.; Xia, Y.; Veselka, T.; Yan, E.; Betrie, G.; Qiu, F.

    2016-12-01

    The power sector is the largest water user in the United States. Depending on the cooling technology employed at a facility, steam-electric power stations withdrawal and consume large amounts of water for each megawatt hour of electricity generated. The amounts are dependent on many factors, including ambient air and water temperatures, cooling technology, etc. Water demands from most economic sectors are typically highest during summertime. For most systems, this coincides with peak electricity demand and consequently a high demand for thermal power plant cooling water. Supplies however are sometimes limited due to seasonal precipitation fluctuations including sporadic droughts that lead to water scarcity. When this occurs there is an impact on both unit commitments and the real-time dispatch. In this work, we model the cooling efficiency of several different types of thermal power generation technologies as a function of power output level and daily temperature profiles. Unit specific relationships are then integrated in a power grid operational model that minimizes total grid production cost while reliably meeting hourly loads. Grid operation is subject to power plant physical constraints, transmission limitations, water availability and environmental constraints such as power plant water exit temperature limits. The model is applied to a standard IEEE-118 bus system under various water availability scenarios. Results show that water availability has a significant impact on power grid economics.

  8. Analysis of the industrial sector representation in the Fossil2 energy-economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wise, M.A.; Woodruff, M.G.; Ashton, W.B.

    1992-08-01

    The Fossil2 energy-economic model is used by the US Department of Energy (DOE) for a variety of energy and environmental policy analyses. A number of improvements to the model are under way or are being considered. This report was prepared by the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) to provide a clearer understanding of the current industrial sector module of Fossil2 and to explore strategies for improving it. The report includes a detailed description of the structure and decision logic of the industrial sector module, along with results from several simulation exercises to demonstrate the behavior of the module in different policy scenarios and under different values of key model parameters. The cases were run with the Fossil2 model at PNL using the National Energy Strategy Actions Case of 1991 as the point of departure. The report also includes a discussion of suggested industrial sector module improvements. These improvements include changes in the way the current model is used; on- and off-line adjustments to some of the model's parameters; and significant changes to include more detail on the industrial processes, technologies, and regions of the country being modeled. The potential benefits and costs of these changes are also discussed

  9. Real analysis with economic applications

    CERN Document Server

    Ok, Efe A

    2011-01-01

    There are many mathematics textbooks on real analysis, but they focus on topics not readily helpful for studying economic theory or they are inaccessible to most graduate students of economics. Real Analysis with Economic Applications aims to fill this gap by providing an ideal textbook and reference on real analysis tailored specifically to the concerns of such students. The emphasis throughout is on topics directly relevant to economic theory. In addition to addressing the usual topics of real analysis, this book discusses the elements of order theory, convex analysis, optimization, correspondences, linear and nonlinear functional analysis, fixed-point theory, dynamic programming, and calculus of variations. Efe Ok complements the mathematical development with applications that provide concise introductions to various topics from economic theory, including individual decision theory and games, welfare economics, information theory, general equilibrium and finance, and intertemporal economics. Moreover, a...

  10. Techno-Economic Modeling and Analysis of Redox Flow Battery Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jens Noack

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available A techno-economic model was developed to investigate the influence of components on the system costs of redox flow batteries. Sensitivity analyses were carried out based on an example of a 10 kW/120 kWh vanadium redox flow battery system, and the costs of the individual components were analyzed. Particular consideration was given to the influence of the material costs and resistances of bipolar plates and energy storage media as well as voltages and electric currents. Based on the developed model, it was possible to formulate statements about the targeted optimization of a developed non-commercial vanadium redox flow battery system and general aspects for future developments of redox flow batteries.

  11. Network models in economics and finance

    CERN Document Server

    Pardalos, Panos; Rassias, Themistocles

    2014-01-01

    Using network models to investigate the interconnectivity in modern economic systems allows researchers to better understand and explain some economic phenomena. This volume presents contributions by known experts and active researchers in economic and financial network modeling. Readers are provided with an understanding of the latest advances in network analysis as applied to economics, finance, corporate governance, and investments. Moreover, recent advances in market network analysis  that focus on influential techniques for market graph analysis are also examined. Young researchers will find this volume particularly useful in facilitating their introduction to this new and fascinating field. Professionals in economics, financial management, various technologies, and network analysis, will find the network models presented in this book beneficial in analyzing the interconnectivity in modern economic systems.

  12. Modeling and techno-economic analysis of shale-to-liquid and coal-to-liquid fuels processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Huairong; Yang, Siyu; Xiao, Honghua; Yang, Qingchun; Qian, Yu; Gao, Li

    2016-01-01

    To alleviate the conflict between oil supply and demand, Chinese government has accelerated exploration and exploitation of alternative oil productions. STL (Shale-to-liquid) processes and CTL (coal-to-liquid) processes are promising choices to supply oil. However, few analyses have been made on their energy efficiency and economic performance. This paper conducts a detailed analysis of a STL process and a CTL process based on mathematical modeling and simulation. Analysis shows that low efficiency of the STL process is due to low oil yield of the Fushun-type retorting technology. For the CTL process, the utility system provides near to 34% energy consumption of the total. This is because that CTL technologies are in early development and no heat integration between units is implemented. Economic analysis reveals that the total capital investment of the CTL process is higher than that of the STL process. The production cost of the CTL process is right on the same level as that of the STL process. For better techno-economic performance, it is suggested to develop a new retorting technology of high oil yield for the STL process. The remaining retorting gas should be converted to hydrogen and then used for shale oil hydrogenation. For the CTL process, developing an appropriate heat network is an efficient way to apply heat integration. In addition, the CTL process is intended to be integrated with hydrogen rich gas to adjust H_2/CO for better resource utilization. - Highlights: • Aspen Plus software is used for modeling and simulation of a shale-to-liquid (STL) and a coal-to-liquid (CTL) processes. • Techno-economic analysis of STL and CTL processes is conducted. • Suggestions are given for improving energy efficiency and economic performance of STL and CTL processes.

  13. Behavioral economics and regulatory analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Lisa A; Hammitt, James K

    2011-09-01

    Behavioral economics has captured the interest of scholars and the general public by demonstrating ways in which individuals make decisions that appear irrational. While increasing attention is being focused on the implications of this research for the design of risk-reducing policies, less attention has been paid to how it affects the economic valuation of policy consequences. This article considers the latter issue, reviewing the behavioral economics literature and discussing its implications for the conduct of benefit-cost analysis, particularly in the context of environmental, health, and safety regulations. We explore three concerns: using estimates of willingness to pay or willingness to accept compensation for valuation, considering the psychological aspects of risk when valuing mortality-risk reductions, and discounting future consequences. In each case, we take the perspective that analysts should avoid making judgments about whether values are "rational" or "irrational." Instead, they should make every effort to rely on well-designed studies, using ranges, sensitivity analysis, or probabilistic modeling to reflect uncertainty. More generally, behavioral research has led some to argue for a more paternalistic approach to policy analysis. We argue instead for continued focus on describing the preferences of those affected, while working to ensure that these preferences are based on knowledge and careful reflection. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. Economic Growth Models Transition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coralia Angelescu

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available The transitional recession in countries of Eastern Europe has been much longer than expected. The legacy and recent policy mistakes have both contributed to the slow progress. As structural reforms and gradual institution building have taken hold, the post-socialist economics have started to recover, with some leading countries building momentum toward faster growth. There is a possibility that in wider context of globalization several of these emerging market economies will be able to catch up with the more advanced industrial economies in a matter of one or two generations. Over the past few years, most candidate countries have made progress in the transition to a competitive market economy, macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform. However their income levels have remained far below those in the Member States. Measured by per capita income in purchasing power standards, there has been a very limited amount of catching up over the past fourteen years. Prior, the distinctions between Solow-Swan model and endogenous growth model. The interdependence between transition and integration are stated in this study. Finally, some measures of macroeconomic policy for sustainable growth are proposed in correlation with real macroeconomic situation of the Romanian economy. Our study would be considered the real convergence for the Romanian economy and the recommendations for the adequate policies to achieve a fast real convergence and sustainable growth.

  15. Economic Growth Models Transition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coralia Angelescu

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The transitional recession in countries of Eastern Europe has been much longer than expected. The legacy and recent policy mistakes have both contributed to the slow progress. As structural reforms and gradual institution building have taken hold, the post-socialist economics have started to recover, with some leading countries building momentum toward faster growth. There is a possibility that in wider context of globalization several of these emerging market economies will be able to catch up with the more advanced industrial economies in a matter of one or two generations. Over the past few years, most candidate countries have made progress in the transition to a competitive market economy, macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform. However their income levels have remained far below those in the Member States. Measured by per capita income in purchasing power standards, there has been a very limited amount of catching up over the past fourteen years. Prior, the distinctions between Solow-Swan model and endogenous growth model. The interdependence between transition and integration are stated in this study. Finally, some measures of macroeconomic policy for sustainable growth are proposed in correlation with real macroeconomic situation of the Romanian economy. Our study would be considered the real convergence for the Romanian economy and the recommendations for the adequate policies to achieve a fast real convergence and sustainable growth.

  16. Pathology economic model tool: a novel approach to workflow and budget cost analysis in an anatomic pathology laboratory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muirhead, David; Aoun, Patricia; Powell, Michael; Juncker, Flemming; Mollerup, Jens

    2010-08-01

    The need for higher efficiency, maximum quality, and faster turnaround time is a continuous focus for anatomic pathology laboratories and drives changes in work scheduling, instrumentation, and management control systems. To determine the costs of generating routine, special, and immunohistochemical microscopic slides in a large, academic anatomic pathology laboratory using a top-down approach. The Pathology Economic Model Tool was used to analyze workflow processes at The Nebraska Medical Center's anatomic pathology laboratory. Data from the analysis were used to generate complete cost estimates, which included not only materials, consumables, and instrumentation but also specific labor and overhead components for each of the laboratory's subareas. The cost data generated by the Pathology Economic Model Tool were compared with the cost estimates generated using relative value units. Despite the use of automated systems for different processes, the workflow in the laboratory was found to be relatively labor intensive. The effect of labor and overhead on per-slide costs was significantly underestimated by traditional relative-value unit calculations when compared with the Pathology Economic Model Tool. Specific workflow defects with significant contributions to the cost per slide were identified. The cost of providing routine, special, and immunohistochemical slides may be significantly underestimated by traditional methods that rely on relative value units. Furthermore, a comprehensive analysis may identify specific workflow processes requiring improvement.

  17. Syntactical Analysis of Economics Textbooks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilcox, George K.

    An analysis of the syntax of economics textbooks was undertaken to (1) provide real-language examples of the difficult grammatical structures being taught in an advanced economics reading course, and (2) construct a factual database of the nature of economics textbooks. Five texts representative of those typically used in introductory economics…

  18. Modeling economic costs of disasters and recovery involving positive effects of reconstruction: analysis using a dynamic CGE model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, W.; Li, N.; Wu, J.-D.; Hao, X.-L.

    2013-11-01

    Disaster damages have negative effects on economy, whereas reconstruction investments have positive effects. The aim of this study is to model economic causes of disasters and recovery involving positive effects of reconstruction activities. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is a promising approach because it can incorporate these two kinds of shocks into a unified framework and further avoid double-counting problem. In order to factor both shocks in CGE model, direct loss is set as the amount of capital stock reduced on supply side of economy; A portion of investments restore the capital stock in existing period; An investment-driven dynamic model is formulated due to available reconstruction data, and the rest of a given country's saving is set as an endogenous variable. The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake is selected as a case study to illustrate the model, and three scenarios are constructed: S0 (no disaster occurs), S1 (disaster occurs with reconstruction investment) and S2 (disaster occurs without reconstruction investment). S0 is taken as business as usual, and the differences between S1 and S0 and that between S2 and S0 can be interpreted as economic losses including reconstruction and excluding reconstruction respectively. The study showed that output from S1 is found to be closer to real data than that from S2. S2 overestimates economic loss by roughly two times that under S1. The gap in economic aggregate between S1 and S0 is reduced to 3% in 2011, a level that should take another four years to achieve under S2.

  19. Process modelling and techno-economic analysis of natural gas combined cycle integrated with calcium looping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erans María

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Calcium looping (CaL is promising for large-scale CO2 capture in the power generation and industrial sectors due to the cheap sorbent used and the relatively low energy penalties achieved with this process. Because of the high operating temperatures the heat utilisation is a major advantage of the process, since a significant amount of power can be generated from it. However, this increases its complexity and capital costs. Therefore, not only the energy efficiency performance is important for these cycles, but also the capital costs must be taken into account, i.e. techno-economic analyses are required in order to determine which parameters and configurations are optimal to enhance technology viability in different integration scenarios. In this study the integration scenarios of CaL cycles and natural gas combined cycles (NGCC are explored. The process models of the NGCC and CaL capture plant are developed to explore the most promising scenarios for NGCC-CaL integration with regards to efficiency penalties. Two scenarios are analysed in detail, and show that the system with heat recovery steam generator (HRSG before and after the capture plant exhibited better performance of 49.1% efficiency compared with that of 45.7% when only one HRSG is located after the capture plant. However, the techno-economic analyses showed that the more energy efficient case, with two HRSGs, implies relatively higher cost of electricity (COE, 44.1€/MWh, when compared to that of the reference plant system (33.1€/MWh. The predicted cost of CO2 avoided for the case with two HRSGS is 29.3 €/ton CO2.

  20. Introduction to Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    R. Preston McAfee

    2005-01-01

    This book presents introductory economics ("principles") material using standard mathematical tools, including calculus. It is designed for a relatively sophisticated undergraduate who has not taken a basic university course in economics. It also contains the standard intermediate microeconomics material and some material that ought to be standard but is not. The book can easily serve as an intermediate microeconomics text. The focus of this book is on the conceptual tools and not on fluff. M...

  1. Analysis of Current and Future Water Demands in the Upper Indus Basin under IPCC Climate and Socio-Economic Scenarios Using a Hydro-Economic WEAP Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Amin

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Pakistan is currently facing physical and economic water scarcity issues that are further complicated by the rapid increase in its population and by climate change. Many studies have focused on the physical water scarcity using hydrological modeling and the measurement of the impact of climate change on water resources in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB. However, few studies have concentrated on the importance of the economic water scarcity, that is, the water management issue under the looming impacts of climate change and the population explosion of Pakistan. The purpose of this study is to develop a management strategy which helps to achieve water security and sustainability in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB with the help of different socio-economic and climate change scenarios using WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning modeling. The streamflow data of five sub-basins (Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar, Shyok, and Astore and the entire Upper Indus Basin (UIB were calibrated (2006–2010 and validated (2011–2014 in the WEAP model. The coefficient of determination and Nash Sutcliffe values for the calibration period ranged from 0.81–0.96. The coefficient of determination and the Nash Sutcliffe values for the validation period ranged from 0.85–0.94. After the development of the WEAP model, the analysis of the unmet water demand and percent coverage of the water demand for the period of 2006–2050 was computed. Different scenarios were generated for external driving factors (population growth, urbanization, and living standards and the impact of climate change to evaluate their effect on the current water supply system. The results indicated that the future unmet water demand is likely to reach 134 million cubic meters (mcm by the year 2050 and that the external driving factors are putting more pressure on the supply service. This study further explores the importance of proposed dams (likely to be built until 2025 by WAPDA (Water and Power Development

  2. The economics of natural gas infrastructure investments. Theory and model-based analysis for Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lochner, Stefan

    2012-07-01

    Changing supply structures, security of supply threats and efforts to eliminate bottlenecks and increase competition in the European gas market potentially warrant infrastructure investments. However, which investments are actually efficient is unclear. From a theoretical perspective, concepts from other sectors regarding the estimation of congestion cost and efficient investment can be applied - with some extensions - to natural gas markets. Investigations in a simple analytical framework, thereby, show that congestion does not necessarily imply that investment is efficient, and that there are multiple interdependencies between investments in different infrastructure elements (pipeline grid, gas storage, import terminals for liquefied natural gas (LNG)) which need to be considered in an applied analysis. Such interdependencies strengthen the case for a model-based analysis. An optimization model minimizing costs can illustrate the first-best solution with respect to investments in natural gas infrastructure; gas market characteristics such as temperature-dependent stochasticity of demand or the lumpiness of investments can be included. Scenario analyses help to show the effects of changing the underlying model presumption. Hence, results are projections subject to data and model assumption - and not forecasts. However, as they depict the optimal, cost-minimizing outcome, results provide a guideline to policymakers and regulators regarding the desirable market outcome. A stochastic mixed-integer dispatch and investment model for the European natural gas infrastructure is developed as an optimization model taking the theoretical inter-dependencies into account. It is based on an extensive infrastructure database including long-distance transmission pipelines, LNG terminals and gas storage sites with a high level of spatial granularity. It is parameterized with assumptions on supply and demand developments as well as empirically derived infrastructure extension costs

  3. Complexity theory and financial regulation: economic policy needs interdisciplinary network analysis and behavioral modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Battiston, S.; Farmer, J.D.; Flache, A.; Garlaschelli, D.; Haldane, A.G.; Heesterbeek, H.; Hommes, C.; Jaeger, C.; May, R.; Scheffer, M.

    2016-01-01

    Traditional economic theory could not explain, much less predict, the near collapse of the financial system and its long-lasting effects on the global economy. Since the 2008 crisis, there has been increasing interest in using ideas from complexity theory to make sense of economic and financial

  4. The BCRA’s Small Economic Model

    OpenAIRE

    Pedro Elosegui; Guillermo Escudé; Lorena Garegnani; Juan Martín Sotes Paladino

    2007-01-01

    The use of macroeconomic forecasting models is a common practice in central banks for monetary policy design, for the analysis of the current economic developments and for medium and long term forecasts. Among those models, the small-scale macroeconomic models stand out. Though relatively simple, they are structured and take into account the transmission mechanisms that relate the main variables of interest: the interest rate, the exchange rate, GDP and inflation. The Small Economic Model (ME...

  5. Creating a market: an economic analysis of the purchaser-provider model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shackley, P; Healey, A

    1993-09-01

    The focus of this paper is the extent to which the purchaser-provider split and the creation of a market in the provision of health care can be expected to bring about greater efficiency within the new NHS. The starting point is a theoretical discussion of markets and competition. In particular, emphasis is placed upon the economic model of perfect competition. It is argued that because of the existence of externalities, uncertainty and a lack of perfect information, an unregulated market in health care will almost certainly fail. In view of this, the imperfect provider markets of monopoly and contestable markets, which are of particular relevance to health care, are discussed. A description of the new health care market and the principal actors within it is followed by an evaluation of the new health care market. It is argued that in view of the restrictions to competition that exist between providers, some form of price regulation will be necessary to prevent monopolistic behaviour in the hospital sector. Regulation of purchasers is also suggested as a means of improving efficiency. It is concluded that competition may be a necessary condition for increased efficiency in health care provision, but is not sufficient in itself. Other incentives in the hospital sector are necessary to assist the market process and to enhance its impact on efficiency.

  6. Analysis of the economic impact of different Chinese climate policy options based on a CGE model incorporating endogenous technological change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Ke; Wang Can; Chen Jining

    2009-01-01

    Abatement cost is the main concern for climate change mitigation and the key factor for mitigation cost is technological change. This study established an integrated economic, energy, environmental, dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model representing endogenous technological change for China's climate change policy analysis. This study analyzed and compared the economic impact of different approaches to mitigation commitments as well as the potential role of technological change in the formulation of mitigation targets and commitments, taking into account China's climate policy-making needs based on the current international climate negotiation process. The results show that, absolute emission limits similar to the Kyoto Protocol will seriously impede the future economic development of China, while the impact of an 80% reduction in carbon intensity, forecast for 2050 based on the 2005 level, is relatively small. Technological change can promote economic growth, improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon intensity per unit of output through the substitution of production factors. Consequently it can reduce marginal abatement cost and related GDP loss by mitigation. At the same time it can increase mitigation potentials and extend the emission reduction amount, showing that consideration of the impact of technological change when deciding the emission reduction targets is necessary.

  7. Economic Analysis Framework for Freight Transportation Based on Florida Statewide Multi-Modal Freight Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-02-01

    Freight transportation plays a vital role in local and regional economy. The markets and businesses from different regions and locations can be connected through freight movements. But it is difficult to quantify the economic contribution of freight ...

  8. Models for Risk Aggregation and Sensitivity Analysis: An Application to Bank Economic Capital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hulusi Inanoglu

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available A challenge in enterprise risk measurement for diversified financial institutions is developing a coherent approach to aggregating different risk types. This has been motivated by rapid financial innovation, developments in supervisory standards (Basel 2 and recent financial turmoil. The main risks faced - market, credit and operational – have distinct distributional properties, and historically have been modeled in differing frameworks. We contribute to the modeling effort by providing tools and insights to practitioners and regulators. First, we extend the scope of the analysis to liquidity and interest rate risk, having Basel Pillar II of Basel implications. Second, we utilize data from major banking institutions’ loss experience from supervisory call reports, which allows us to explore the impact of business mix and inter-risk correlations on total risk. Third, we estimate and compare alternative established frameworks for risk aggregation (including copula models on the same data-sets across banks, comparing absolute total risk measures (Value-at-Risk – VaR and proportional diversification benefits-PDB, goodness-of-fit (GOF of the model as data as well as the variability of the VaR estimate with respect to sampling error in parameter. This benchmarking and sensitivity analysis suggests that practitioners consider implementing a simple non-parametric methodology (empirical copula simulation- ECS in order to quantify integrated risk, in that it is found to be more conservatism and stable than the other models. We observe that ECS produces 20% to 30% higher VaR relative to the standard Gaussian copula simulation (GCS, while the variance-covariance approximation (VCA is much lower. ECS yields the highest PDBs than other methodologies (127% to 243%, while Archimadean Gumbel copula simulation (AGCS is the lowest (10-21%. Across the five largest banks we fail to find the effect of business mix to exert a directionally consistent impact on

  9. INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GERMÁN LOBOS

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L. production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in

  10. HOMER Economic Models - US Navy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, Jason William [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Myers, Kurt Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-02-01

    This LETTER REPORT has been prepared by Idaho National Laboratory for US Navy NAVFAC EXWC to support in testing pre-commercial SIREN (Simulated Integration of Renewable Energy Networks) computer software models. In the logistics mode SIREN software simulates the combination of renewable power sources (solar arrays, wind turbines, and energy storage systems) in supplying an electrical demand. NAVFAC EXWC will create SIREN software logistics models of existing or planned renewable energy projects at five Navy locations (San Nicolas Island, AUTEC, New London, & China Lake), and INL will deliver additional HOMER computer models for comparative analysis. In the transient mode SIREN simulates the short time-scale variation of electrical parameters when a power outage or other destabilizing event occurs. In the HOMER model, a variety of inputs are entered such as location coordinates, Generators, PV arrays, Wind Turbines, Batteries, Converters, Grid costs/usage, Solar resources, Wind resources, Temperatures, Fuels, and Electric Loads. HOMER's optimization and sensitivity analysis algorithms then evaluate the economic and technical feasibility of these technology options and account for variations in technology costs, electric load, and energy resource availability. The Navy can then use HOMER’s optimization and sensitivity results to compare to those of the SIREN model. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Idaho National Laboratory (INL) possesses unique expertise and experience in the software, hardware, and systems design for the integration of renewable energy into the electrical grid. NAVFAC EXWC will draw upon this expertise to complete mission requirements.

  11. Analysis of Behavioral Economics in Crowdsensing: A Loss Aversion Cooperation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deng Li

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The existing incentive mechanisms of crowdsourcing construct the expected utility function based on the assumption of rational people in traditional economics. A large number of studies in behavioral economics have demonstrated the defects of the traditional utility function and introduced a new parameter called loss aversion coefficient to calculate individual utility when it suffers a loss. In this paper, combination of behavioral economics and a payment algorithm based on the loss aversion is proposed. Compared with usual incentive mechanisms, the node utility function is redefined by the loss aversion characteristic of the node. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm can get a higher rate of cooperation with a lower payment price and has good scalability compared with the traditional incentive mechanism.

  12. Economic modeling of HIV treatments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Kit N

    2010-05-01

    To review the general literature on microeconomic modeling and key points that must be considered in the general assessment of economic modeling reports, discuss the evolution of HIV economic models and identify models that illustrate this development over time, as well as examples of current studies. Recommend improvements in HIV economic modeling. Recent economic modeling studies of HIV include examinations of scaling up antiretroviral (ARV) in South Africa, screening prior to use of abacavir, preexposure prophylaxis, early start of ARV in developing countries and cost-effectiveness comparisons of specific ARV drugs using data from clinical trials. These studies all used extensively published second-generation Markov models in their analyses. There have been attempts to simplify approaches to cost-effectiveness estimates by using simple decision trees or cost-effectiveness calculations with short-time horizons. However, these approaches leave out important cumulative economic effects that will not appear early in a treatment. Many economic modeling studies were identified in the 'gray' literature, but limited descriptions precluded an assessment of their adherence to modeling guidelines, and thus to the validity of their findings. There is a need for developing third-generation models to accommodate new knowledge about adherence, adverse effects, and viral resistance.

  13. Life extension economic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smithling, A.P.

    1992-01-01

    Life extension economic analyses of fossil fueled power plants need the development of consistent methods which consider the capital costs associated with component replacement or repair and estimates of normal station capital expenditures over the units remaining life. In order to link capital and production costs, Niagra Mohawk Power Corp. develops most and worst cases. A most case includes capital components that would definitely need replacement or modification for life extension. The worst case scenario contains must case capital costs plus various components which may need replacement or modification. In addition, two forecasted conditions are used, base case capacity and low capacity

  14. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Man Ki; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Oh, K. B.

    2006-12-01

    It has been well recognized that securing economic viabilities along with technologies are very important elements in the successful implementation of nuclear R and D projects. The objective of the Project is to help nuclear energy to be utilized in an efficient way by analyzing major issues related with nuclear economics. The study covers following subjects: the role of nuclear in the future electric supply system, economic analysis of nuclear R and D project, contribution to the regional economy from nuclear power. In addition, the study introduces the international cooperation in the methodological area of efficient use of nuclear energy by surveying the international activities related with nuclear economics

  15. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Man Ki; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Oh, K. B

    2006-12-15

    It has been well recognized that securing economic viabilities along with technologies are very important elements in the successful implementation of nuclear R and D projects. The objective of the Project is to help nuclear energy to be utilized in an efficient way by analyzing major issues related with nuclear economics. The study covers following subjects: the role of nuclear in the future electric supply system, economic analysis of nuclear R and D project, contribution to the regional economy from nuclear power. In addition, the study introduces the international cooperation in the methodological area of efficient use of nuclear energy by surveying the international activities related with nuclear economics.

  16. Process model and economic analysis of ethanol production from sugar beet raw juice as part of the cleaner production concept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vučurović, Damjan G; Dodić, Siniša N; Popov, Stevan D; Dodić, Jelena M; Grahovac, Jovana A

    2012-01-01

    The batch fermentation process of sugar beet processing intermediates by free yeast cells is the most widely used method in the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina for producing ethanol as fuel. In this study a process and cost model was developed for producing ethanol from raw juice. The model can be used to calculate capital investment costs, unit production costs and operating costs for a plant producing 44 million l of 99.6% pure ethanol annually. In the sensitivity analysis the influence of sugar beet and yeast price, as well as the influence of recycled biomass on process economics, ethanol production costs and project feasibility was examined. The results of this study clearly demonstrate that the raw material costs have a significant influence on the expenses for producing ethanol. Also, the optimal percentage of recycled biomass turned out to be in the range from 50% to 70%. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Economic aspects and models for building codes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonke, Jens; Pedersen, Dan Ove; Johnsen, Kjeld

    It is the purpose of this bulletin to present an economic model for estimating the consequence of new or changed building codes. The object is to allow comparative analysis in order to improve the basis for decisions in this field. The model is applied in a case study.......It is the purpose of this bulletin to present an economic model for estimating the consequence of new or changed building codes. The object is to allow comparative analysis in order to improve the basis for decisions in this field. The model is applied in a case study....

  18. An Exploratory Analysis of Economic Factors in the Navy Total Force Strength Model (NTFSM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    the model incorporates (in the personnel calculations) econometric effects to Losses by Expiration of Active Obligated Service, Attrition, and Length...Incorporate econometric effects of losses by LOS and paygrade using parameters generated by the Navy Econometric Modeling System (NEMS) to the greatest...community- level models . (CAP9) • Model architecture will support hosting of model , scenarios, (inputs, user comments, etc.) and outputs in a secure

  19. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Man Ki; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Song, K. D.; Oh, K. B.

    2004-12-01

    This study evaluated the role of nuclear energy in various aspects in order to provide a more comprehensive standard of judgement to the justification of the utilization of nuclear energy. Firstly, this study evaluated the economic value addition of nuclear power generation technology and Radio-Isotope(RI) technology quantitatively by using modified Input-Output table. Secondly, a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of nuclear power generation was conducted with an effort to quantify the foreign exchange expenditure, the environmental damage cost during 1986-2015 for each scenario. Thirdly, the effect of the regulation of CO 2 emission on the Korean electric supply system was investigated. In more detail, an optimal composition of power plant mix by energy source was investigated, under the assumption of the CO 2 emission regulation at a certain level, by using MESSAGE model. Finally, the economic spillover effect from technology self-reliance of NSSS by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute was evaluated. Both production spillover effect and value addition spillover effect were estimated by using Input-Output table

  20. Economic modelling for life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, M.A.; Harrison, D.L.; Carlson, D.D.

    1987-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives. An analysis of the role of life extension for Virginia Power's generating system was performed using the MIDAS model, developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. MIDAS is particularly well suited to this type of study because of its decision analysis framework. The model incorporates modules for load analysis, capacity expansion, production costing, financial analysis, and rates. The decision tree structure facilitates the multiple-scenario analysis of uncertainty. The model's output includes many economic and financial measures, including capital expenditures, fuel and purchases power costs, revenue requirements, average rates, external financing requirements, and coverage ratio. Based on findings for Virginia Power's Surry 1 plant, nuclear plant life extension has economic benefits for a utility's customers and financial benefits for the utility's investors. These benefits depend on a number of economic, technical and regulatory factors. The economic analysis presented in this paper identifies many of the key factors and issues relevant to life extension planning

  1. ECONOMIC MODELING PROCESSES USING MATLAB

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anamaria G. MACOVEI

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available To study economic phenomena and processes using mathem atical modeling, and to determine the approximatesolution to a problem we need to choose a method of calculation and a numerical computer program, namely thepackage of programs MatLab. Any economic process or phenomenon is a mathematical description of h is behavior,and thus draw up an economic and mathematical model that has the following stages: formulation of the problem, theanalysis process modeling, the production model and design verification, validation and implementation of the model.This article is presented an economic model and its modeling is using mathematical equations and software packageMatLab, which helps us approximation effective solution. As data entry is considered the net cost, the cost of direct andtotal cost and the link between them. I presented the basic formula for determining the total cost. Economic modelcalculations were made in MatLab software package and with graphic representation of its interpretation of the resultsachieved in terms of our specific problem.

  2. Techno-Economic analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salvesen, F.; Sandgren, J. [KanEnergi AS, Rud (Norway)

    1997-12-31

    The present energy situation in the target area is summarized: 20 million inhabitants without electricity in north- west Russia, 50 % of the people in the Baltic`s without electricity, very high technical skills, biggest problems is the finance. The energy situation, the advantages of the renewables, the restrictions, and examples for possible technical solutions are reviewed on the basis of short analysis and experience with the Baltics and Russia

  3. Techno-Economic analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salvesen, F; Sandgren, J [KanEnergi AS, Rud (Norway)

    1998-12-31

    The present energy situation in the target area is summarized: 20 million inhabitants without electricity in north- west Russia, 50 % of the people in the Baltic`s without electricity, very high technical skills, biggest problems is the finance. The energy situation, the advantages of the renewables, the restrictions, and examples for possible technical solutions are reviewed on the basis of short analysis and experience with the Baltics and Russia

  4. Integrated agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis of BMPs to support decision making and policy design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maroy, E.; Rousseau, A. N.; Hallema, D. W.

    2012-12-01

    With recent efforts and increasing control over point source pollution of freshwater, agricultural non-point pollution sources have become responsible for most of sediment and nutrient loads in North American water systems. Environmental and agricultural agencies have recognised the need for reducing eutrophication and have developed various policies to compel or encourage producers to best management practices (BMPs). Addressing diffuse pollution is challenging considering the complex and cumulative nature of transport processes, high variability in space and time, and prohibitive costs of distributed water quality monitoring. Many policy options exist to push producers to adopt environmentally desirable behaviour while keeping their activity viable, and ensure equitable costs to consumers and tax payers. On the one hand, economic instruments (subsidies, taxes, water quality markets) are designed to maximize cost-effectiveness, so that farmers optimize their production for maximum profit while implementing BMPs. On the other hand, emission standards or regulation of inputs are often easier and less costly to implement. To study economic and environmental impacts of such policies, a distributed modelling approach is needed to deal with the complexity of the system and the large environmental and socio-economic data requirements. Our objective is to integrate agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis to support decision and policy making processes of BMP implementation. The integrated modelling system GIBSI was developed in an earlier study within the Canadian WEBs project (Watershed Evaluation of BMPs) to evaluate the influence of BMPs on water quality. The case study involved 30 and 15 year records of discharge and water quality measurements respectively, in the Beaurivage River watershed (Quebec, Canada). GIBSI provided a risk-based overview of the impact of BMPs (including vegetated riparian buffer strips, precision slurry application, conversion to

  5. Marital dissolution: an economic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, K A

    1984-01-01

    A longitudinal analysis of factors affecting marital dissolution in the United States is presented using data from the Coleman-Rossi Retrospective Life History. Factors considered include labor force participation of both spouses, wage growth, size of family unit, age at marriage, and educational status. The study is based on the economic analysis approach developed by Gary S. Becker and others.

  6. Systems contestability in electricity distribution networks. An analysis from the telecommunications models within the neoclassical economic paradigm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schweickardt, Gustavo Alejandro; Pistonesi, Hector

    2008-01-01

    The introduction of contestability conditions in the market of electricity distribution, following the dominant economic paradigm (Neoclassical or Marginalist) and solidary to the commercialization segment, it doesn't exhibit satisfactory solutions at the present time. This asseveration, of general character, have special incumbency for those countries of Latin America that, from regulatory schemes, try to define a deregulated market for certain kind of user (denominated eligible). A eligible user is characterized by to have demands equal or higher than a preset threshold value of electric power/ energy. In this work, considering the models implemented in the telecommunications networks, the problem of allocation of distribution costs, as the first step toward a contestable offer in the retail energy service, is discussed to establishing access prices in the distribution networks (non contestable markets). The analysis is focalized to definition of two market segments: one regulated and other competitive. Their methodological and instrumentation difficulties, are presented, concluding in the necessity of an alternative paradigm.

  7. The integrated economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Syrota, J.; Cirelli, J.F.; Brimont, S.; Lyle, C.; Nossent, G.; Moraleda, P.

    2005-01-01

    The setting up of the European energy market has triggered a radical change of the context within with the energy players operated. The natural markets of the incumbent operators, which were formerly demarcated by national and even regional borders, have extended to at least the scale of the European Union. In addition to their geographical development strategy, gas undertakings are diversifying their portfolios towards both upstream as well as downstream activities of the gas chain, and/or extending their offers to other energies and services. Energy players' strategies are rather complex and sometimes give the impression that of being based on contradictory decisions. Some operators widen their field of operations, whereas others specialize in a limited number of activities. This Round Table provides an opportunity to compare business models as adopted by the major gas undertakings in response to structural changes observed in various countries over recent years

  8. Analysis of the EU renewable energy directive by a techno-economic optimisation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lind, Arne; Rosenberg, Eva; Seljom, Pernille; Espegren, Kari; Fidje, Audun; Lindberg, Karen

    2013-01-01

    The EU renewable energy (RES) directive sets a target of increasing the share of renewable energy used in the EU to 20% by 2020. The Norwegian goal for the share of renewable energy in 2020 is 67.5%, an increase from 60.1% in 2005. The Norwegian power production is almost solely based on renewable resources and the possibility to change from fossil power plants to renewable power production is almost non-existing. Therefore other measures have to be taken to fulfil the RES directive. Possible ways for Norway to reach its target for 2020 are analysed with a technology-rich, bottom-up energy system model (TIMES-Norway). This new model is developed with a high time resolution among others to be able to analyse intermittent power production. Model results indicate that the RES target can be achieved with a diversity of options including investments in hydropower, wind power, high-voltage power lines for export, various heat pump technologies, energy efficiency measures and increased use of biodiesel in the transportation sector. Hence, it is optimal to invest in a portfolio of technology choices in order to satisfy the RES directive, and not one single technology in one energy sector. - Highlights: • A new technology-rich, bottom-up energy system model is developed for Norway. • Possible ways for Norway to reach its renewable energy target for 2020 is analysed. • Results show that the renewable target can be achieved with a diversity of options. • The green certificate market contributes to increased investments in wind power

  9. Cost-effectiveness of screening for HIV in primary care: a health economics modelling analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Baggaley, R. F.; Irvine, M. A.; Leber, W.; Cambiano, V.; Figueroa, J.; McMullen, H.; Anderson, J.; Santos, A. C.; Terris-Prestholt, F.; Miners, A.; Hollingsworth, T. D.; Griffiths, C. J.

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Early HIV diagnosis reduces morbidity, mortality, the probability of onward transmission, and their associated costs, but might increase cost because of earlier initiation of antiretroviral treatment (ART). We investigated this trade-off by estimating the cost-effectiveness of HIV screening in primary care. METHODS: We modelled the effect of the four-times higher diagnosis rate observed in the intervention arm of the RHIVA2 randomised controlled trial done in Hackney, London (UK),...

  10. Cost-effectiveness of screening for HIV in primary care: a health economics modelling analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Baggaley, Rebecca F; Irvine, Michael A; Leber, Werner; Cambiano, Valentina; Figueroa, Jose; McMullen, Heather; Anderson, Jane; Santos, Andreia C; Terris-Prestholt, Fern; Miners, Alec; Hollingsworth, T Déirdre; Griffiths, Chris J

    2017-01-01

    Summary Background Early HIV diagnosis reduces morbidity, mortality, the probability of onward transmission, and their associated costs, but might increase cost because of earlier initiation of antiretroviral treatment (ART). We investigated this trade-off by estimating the cost-effectiveness of HIV screening in primary care. Methods We modelled the effect of the four-times higher diagnosis rate observed in the intervention arm of the RHIVA2 randomised controlled trial done in Hackney, London...

  11. Pet Overpopulation: An Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Stephen Coate; Brian Knight

    2009-01-01

    This paper considers the problem of pet overpopulation. It develops a tractable dynamic model whose positive predictions square well with key features of the current U.S. market for pets. The model is used to understand, from a welfare economic perspective, the sense in which there is \\overpopulation" of pets and the underlying causes of the problem. The paper also employs the model to consider what policies might be implemented to deal with the problem. A calibrated example is developed to i...

  12. Financial Liberalization and Economic Growth in the North Africa Region: Cointegration Panel Analysis by DOLS and FMOLS Models

    OpenAIRE

    KHATTAB, Ahmed; IHADIYAN, Abid

    2015-01-01

    Abstract. This article aims at examining the impact of financial liberalization on the economic growth in the North African countries. The econometric study, which covers the period between 1995 and 2013, relies on a sample composed of four Northern African countries and referring to the database of the World Bank data (2013), Heritage Foundation (2013) and Financial Openness of (the Institute for international and development Economics, 2009). The estimate model of cointegration panel reveal...

  13. Using fractal analysis in modeling the dynamics of forest areas and economic impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pintilii, Radu Daniel; Andronache, Ion; Diaconu, Daniel Constantin

    2017-01-01

    This study uses fractal analysis to quantify the spatial changes of forest resources caused by an increase of deforested areas. The method introduced contributes to the evaluation of forest resources being under significant pressure from anthropogenic activities. The pressure on the forest...... resources has been analyzed for Maramures, County, one of the most deforested counties in Romania. In order to evaluate this, the deforested areas were calculated for the period of 2001-2014, by using the Global Forest Change 2000-2014 database. The Fractal Fragmentation Index (FFI) and Fixed Grid 2D...

  14. Advanced Fuel Cycle Economic Sensitivity Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David Shropshire; Kent Williams; J.D. Smith; Brent Boore

    2006-12-01

    A fuel cycle economic analysis was performed on four fuel cycles to provide a baseline for initial cost comparison using the Gen IV Economic Modeling Work Group G4 ECON spreadsheet model, Decision Programming Language software, the 2006 Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis report, industry cost data, international papers, the nuclear power related cost study from MIT, Harvard, and the University of Chicago. The analysis developed and compared the fuel cycle cost component of the total cost of energy for a wide range of fuel cycles including: once through, thermal with fast recycle, continuous fast recycle, and thermal recycle.

  15. Cost-effectiveness of screening for HIV in primary care: a health economics modelling analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baggaley, Rebecca F; Irvine, Michael A; Leber, Werner; Cambiano, Valentina; Figueroa, Jose; McMullen, Heather; Anderson, Jane; Santos, Andreia C; Terris-Prestholt, Fern; Miners, Alec; Hollingsworth, T Déirdre; Griffiths, Chris J

    2017-10-01

    Early HIV diagnosis reduces morbidity, mortality, the probability of onward transmission, and their associated costs, but might increase cost because of earlier initiation of antiretroviral treatment (ART). We investigated this trade-off by estimating the cost-effectiveness of HIV screening in primary care. We modelled the effect of the four-times higher diagnosis rate observed in the intervention arm of the RHIVA2 randomised controlled trial done in Hackney, London (UK), a borough with high HIV prevalence (≥0·2% adult prevalence). We constructed a dynamic, compartmental model representing incidence of infection and the effect of screening for HIV in general practices in Hackney. We assessed cost-effectiveness of the RHIVA2 trial by fitting model diagnosis rates to the trial data, parameterising with epidemiological and behavioural data from the literature when required, using trial testing costs and projecting future costs of treatment. Over a 40 year time horizon, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were £22 201 (95% credible interval 12 662-132 452) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, £372 207 (268 162-1 903 385) per death averted, and £628 874 (434 902-4 740 724) per HIV transmission averted. Under this model scenario, with UK cost data, RHIVA2 would reach the upper National Institute for Health and Care Excellence cost-effectiveness threshold (about £30 000 per QALY gained) after 33 years. Scenarios using cost data from Canada (which indicate prolonged and even higher health-care costs for patients diagnosed late) suggest this threshold could be reached in as little as 13 years. Screening for HIV in primary care has important public health benefits as well as clinical benefits. We predict it to be cost-effective in the UK in the medium term. However, this intervention might be cost-effective far sooner, and even cost-saving, in settings where long-term health-care costs of late-diagnosed patients in high

  16. Economic Well-Being and Poverty Among the Elderly : An Analysis Based on a Collective Consumption Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cherchye, L.J.H.; de Rock, B.; Vermeulen, F.M.P.

    2008-01-01

    We apply the collective consumption model of Browning, Chiappori and Lew- bel (2006) to analyse economic well-being and poverty among the elderly. The model focuses on individual preferences, a consumption technology that captures the economies of scale of living in a couple, and a sharing rule that

  17. Spatial–Temporal Modeling for Regional Economic Development: A Quantitative Analysis with Panel Data from Western China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingxiao Zhang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this research is to analyze regional economic difference and explore the influencing factors, which would eventually provide an effective foundation to narrow the regional economic differences. In this paper, a new regional economic difference model is established considering the interactions between the spatial weight and human capital and foreign direct investment (FDI. With the panel data from twelve western provinces in China, the empirical research is conducted by adopting feasible generalized least squares (FGLS fixed effects model. The preliminary results show that: (1 the spatial spillover effect of human capital and FDI is significant to the formation of regional economic difference; and (2 the total capital formation, government expenditure, FDI, human capital and patent application authorization are positively correlated with GDP growth per capita, while the number of medical institutions is negatively correlated with GDP growth per capita. In addition, the robust test is carried out for validation by using the filter variable method, spatial lag model and spatial error model. The robustness test results show that the results of the FGLS fixed effects model are validated by the filter variable method. The other two robust test results show that: (1 the total capital formation and the fixed asset investment is of 99.9% significance, which represents that they play a key role in the formation of economic development difference; and (2 the coefficients’ symbols of the other variables are consistent with the FGLS fixed effect model but a little different on the significances, which enhance the effectiveness of the proposed regional economic difference model.

  18. Model confirmation in climate economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millner, Antony; McDermott, Thomas K. J.

    2016-01-01

    Benefit–cost integrated assessment models (BC-IAMs) inform climate policy debates by quantifying the trade-offs between alternative greenhouse gas abatement options. They achieve this by coupling simplified models of the climate system to models of the global economy and the costs and benefits of climate policy. Although these models have provided valuable qualitative insights into the sensitivity of policy trade-offs to different ethical and empirical assumptions, they are increasingly being used to inform the selection of policies in the real world. To the extent that BC-IAMs are used as inputs to policy selection, our confidence in their quantitative outputs must depend on the empirical validity of their modeling assumptions. We have a degree of confidence in climate models both because they have been tested on historical data in hindcasting experiments and because the physical principles they are based on have been empirically confirmed in closely related applications. By contrast, the economic components of BC-IAMs often rely on untestable scenarios, or on structural models that are comparatively untested on relevant time scales. Where possible, an approach to model confirmation similar to that used in climate science could help to build confidence in the economic components of BC-IAMs, or focus attention on which components might need refinement for policy applications. We illustrate the potential benefits of model confirmation exercises by performing a long-run hindcasting experiment with one of the leading BC-IAMs. We show that its model of long-run economic growth—one of its most important economic components—had questionable predictive power over the 20th century. PMID:27432964

  19. Mathematical modelling in economic processes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.V. Kravtsova

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available In article are considered a number of methods of mathematical modelling of economic processes and opportunities of use of spreadsheets Excel for reception of the optimum decision of tasks or calculation of financial operations with the help of the built-in functions.

  20. Economic analysis of fusion breeders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delene, J.G.

    1985-01-01

    This paper presents a study of the economic performance of Fission/Fusion Hybrid devices. This work takes fusion breeder cost estimates and applies methodology and cost factors used in the fission reactor programs to compare fusion breeders with Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactors (LMFBR). The results of the analysis indicate that the Hybrid will be in the same competitive range as proposed LMFBRs and have the potential to provide economically competitive power in a future of rising uranium prices. The sensitivity of the results to variations in key parameters is included

  1. Systematic review, meta-analysis and economic modelling of molecular diagnostic tests for antibiotic resistance in tuberculosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drobniewski, Francis; Cooke, Mary; Jordan, Jake; Casali, Nicola; Mugwagwa, Tendai; Broda, Agnieszka; Townsend, Catherine; Sivaramakrishnan, Anand; Green, Nathan; Jit, Mark; Lipman, Marc; Lord, Joanne; White, Peter J; Abubakar, Ibrahim

    2015-05-01

    introducing rapid molecular testing (in addition to culture and drug sensitivity testing). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the impact on cost-effectiveness of diagnostic and treatment time delays, diagnosis and treatment costs, and associated QALYs. A total of 8922 titles and abstracts were identified, with 557 papers being potentially eligible. Of these, 56 studies contained sufficient test information for analysis. All three commercial tests performed well when detecting drug resistance in clinical samples, although with evidence of heterogeneity between studies. Pooled sensitivity for GenoType® MTBDRplus (Hain Lifescience, Nehren, Germany) (isoniazid and rifampicin resistance), INNO-LiPA Rif.TB® (Fujirebio Europe, Ghent, Belgium) (rifampicin resistance) and Xpert® MTB/RIF (Cepheid Inc., Sunnyvale, CA, USA) (rifampicin resistance) was 83.4%, 94.6%, 95.4% and 96.8%, respectively; equivalent pooled specificity was 99.6%, 98.2%, 99.7% and 98.4%, respectively. Results of the transmission model suggest that all of the rapid assays considered here, if added to the current diagnostic pathway, would be cost-saving and achieve a reduction in expected QALY loss compared with current practice. GenoType MTBDRplus appeared to be the most cost-effective of the rapid tests in the South Asian population, although results were similar for GeneXpert. In all other scenarios GeneXpert appeared to be the most cost-effective strategy. Rapid molecular tests for rifampicin and isoniazid resistance were sensitive and specific. They may also be cost-effective when added to culture drug susceptibility testing in the UK. There is global interest in point-of-care testing and further work is needed to review the performance of emerging tests and the wider health-economic impact of decentralised testing in clinics and primary care, as well as non-health-care settings, such as shelters and prisons. This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42011001537. The National Institute

  2. Systematic review, meta-analysis and economic modelling of molecular diagnostic tests for antibiotic resistance in tuberculosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drobniewski, Francis; Cooke, Mary; Jordan, Jake; Casali, Nicola; Mugwagwa, Tendai; Broda, Agnieszka; Townsend, Catherine; Sivaramakrishnan, Anand; Green, Nathan; Jit, Mark; Lipman, Marc; Lord, Joanne; White, Peter J; Abubakar, Ibrahim

    2015-01-01

    economic model was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of introducing rapid molecular testing (in addition to culture and drug sensitivity testing). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the impact on cost-effectiveness of diagnostic and treatment time delays, diagnosis and treatment costs, and associated QALYs. RESULTS A total of 8922 titles and abstracts were identified, with 557 papers being potentially eligible. Of these, 56 studies contained sufficient test information for analysis. All three commercial tests performed well when detecting drug resistance in clinical samples, although with evidence of heterogeneity between studies. Pooled sensitivity for GenoType® MTBDRplus (Hain Lifescience, Nehren, Germany) (isoniazid and rifampicin resistance), INNO-LiPA Rif.TB® (Fujirebio Europe, Ghent, Belgium) (rifampicin resistance) and Xpert® MTB/RIF (Cepheid Inc., Sunnyvale, CA, USA) (rifampicin resistance) was 83.4%, 94.6%, 95.4% and 96.8%, respectively; equivalent pooled specificity was 99.6%, 98.2%, 99.7% and 98.4%, respectively. Results of the transmission model suggest that all of the rapid assays considered here, if added to the current diagnostic pathway, would be cost-saving and achieve a reduction in expected QALY loss compared with current practice. GenoType MTBDRplus appeared to be the most cost-effective of the rapid tests in the South Asian population, although results were similar for GeneXpert. In all other scenarios GeneXpert appeared to be the most cost-effective strategy. CONCLUSIONS Rapid molecular tests for rifampicin and isoniazid resistance were sensitive and specific. They may also be cost-effective when added to culture drug susceptibility testing in the UK. There is global interest in point-of-care testing and further work is needed to review the performance of emerging tests and the wider health-economic impact of decentralised testing in clinics and primary care, as well as non-health-care settings, such as shelters and

  3. Dynamic analysis of savings and economic growth in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dynamic analysis of savings and economic growth in Nigeria. ... a trivariate dynamic Granger causality model with savings, economic growth and foreign ... It is recommended that in the short run, policies in Nigeria should be geared towards ...

  4. An analysis of the influence of framework aspects on the study design of health economic modeling evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurtner, Sebastian

    2013-04-01

    Research and practical guidelines have many implications for how to structure a health economic study. A major focus in recent decades has been the quality of health economic research. In practice, the factors influencing a study design are not limited to the quest for quality. Moreover, the framework of the study is important. This research addresses three major questions related to these framework aspects. First, we want to know whether the design of health economic studies has changed over time. Second, we want to know how the subject of a study, whether it is a process or product innovation, influences the parameters of the study design. Third, one of the most important questions we will answer is whether and how the study's source of funding has an impact on the design of the research. To answer these questions, a total of 234 health economic studies were analyzed using a correspondence analysis and a logistic regression analysis. All three categories of framework factors have an influence on the aspects of the study design. Health economic studies have evolved over time, leading to the use of more advanced methods like complex sensitivity analyses. Additionally, the patient's point of view has increased in importance. The evaluation of product innovations has focused more on utility concepts. On the other hand, the source of funding may influence only a few aspects of the study design, such as the use of evaluation methods, the source of data, and the use of certain utility measures. The most important trends in health care, such as the emphasis on the patients' point of view, become increasingly established in health economic evaluations with the passage of time. Although methodological challenges remain, modern information and communication technologies provide a basis for increasing the complexity and quality of health economic studies if used frequently.

  5. Energy-economic policy modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanstad, Alan H.

    2018-01-01

    Computational models based on economic principles and methods are powerful tools for understanding and analyzing problems in energy and the environment and for designing policies to address them. Among their other features, some current models of this type incorporate information on sustainable energy technologies and can be used to examine their potential role in addressing the problem of global climate change. The underlying principles and the characteristics of the models are summarized, and examples of this class of model and their applications are presented. Modeling epistemology and related issues are discussed, as well as critiques of the models. The paper concludes with remarks on the evolution of the models and possibilities for their continued development.

  6. ​An Overview on the Principles of Decision Analysis and Economic Modeling in Healthcare and an Introduction to Advanced Software Treeage Pro 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Imani

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Background and Objectives : Decision analysis models are conceptual framework for most of the cost - effectiveness (CEA and cost-utility (CUA analyses and this model increasingly plays an important role in decision making. The aim of this study was to improve the understanding and use of decision analysis and economic modeling techniques with a particular emphasis on decision trees and Markov modeling. Material and Methods : A review of the published literature was performed using the seven search engines and databases which include Web of Science, PubMed, Cochrane, Embase, EconLit, EBSCO and HEED with key words including: Decision Analysis, Health Economic Modeling and TreeAge and their combination to describe the structure, application, and limitations of the more popular decision analytic methods including decision trees, Markov models, and sensitivity analysis in healthcare. Results : We identified 19 relevant published articles. The results indicated that decision analytical models are widely used in economic evaluation of health care interventions with the objective of generating valuable information to assist health policy decision-makers to allocate scarce health care resources efficiently. Conclusion : Decision analytic modeling allows a rational, feasible, scientific, and timely approach to measure the efficiency of new medical technologies in health care by using the best available evidence of different sources to produce detailed estimates of the clinical and economic indicators. Despite TreeAge Pro software increasing use in developing countries as economic modeling studies of various health interventions, unfortunately its role and impact are not known in Iran yet. ​

  7. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Han Myung; Lee, M.K.; Moon, K.H.; Kim, S.S.; Lim, C.Y.; Song, K.D.; Kim, H

    2001-12-01

    The objective of this study is to evaluate the contribution of nuclear energy to the energy use in the economical way, based on the factor survey performed on the internal and external environmental changes occurred recent years. Internal and external environmental changes are being occurred recent years involving with using nuclear energy. This study summarizes the recent environmental changes in nuclear energy such as sustainable development issues, climate change talks, Doha round and newly created electricity fund. This study also carried out the case studies on nuclear energy, based on the environmental analysis performed above. The case studies cover following topics: role of nuclear power in energy/environment/economy, estimation of environmental external cost in electric generation sector, economic comparison of hydrogen production, and inter-industrial analysis of nuclear power generation.

  8. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Han Myung; Lee, M.K.; Moon, K.H.; Kim, S.S.; Lim, C.Y.; Song, K.D.; Kim, H.

    2001-12-01

    The objective of this study is to evaluate the contribution of nuclear energy to the energy use in the economical way, based on the factor survey performed on the internal and external environmental changes occurred recent years. Internal and external environmental changes are being occurred recent years involving with using nuclear energy. This study summarizes the recent environmental changes in nuclear energy such as sustainable development issues, climate change talks, Doha round and newly created electricity fund. This study also carried out the case studies on nuclear energy, based on the environmental analysis performed above. The case studies cover following topics: role of nuclear power in energy/environment/economy, estimation of environmental external cost in electric generation sector, economic comparison of hydrogen production, and inter-industrial analysis of nuclear power generation

  9. Efficiency of economic development models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oana Camelia Iacob

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The world economy is becoming increasingly integrated. Integrating emerging economies of Asia, such as China and India increase competition on the world stage, putting pressure on the "actors" already existing. These developments have raised questions about the effectiveness of European development model, which focuses on a high level of equity, insurance and social protection. According to analysts, the world today faces three models of economic development with significant weight in the world: the European, American and Asian. This study will focus on analyzing European development model, and a brief comparison with the United States. In addition, this study aims to highlight the relationship between efficiency and social equity that occurs in each submodel in part of the European model, given that social and economic performance in the EU are not homogeneous. To achieve this, it is necessary to analyze different indicators related to social equity and efficiency respectively, to observe the performance of each submodel individually. The article analyzes data to determine submodel performance according to social equity and economic efficiency.

  10. An economic model for seaborne oil trade

    OpenAIRE

    Hong, Kian-Wah

    1996-01-01

    This thesis aims to provide some insights as to how oil prices and oil flows might vary with the carrying capacity of the tanker fleet as affected by political events. It provides an econometric analysis of tanker freight rates in the modern era and proposes a mathematical (quadratic) programming economic model that links the crude oil market to the supply elasticity of the world oil tanker fleet based on a competitive economy. The economic model can be considered as a version of the Walras-C...

  11. Performance modeling and techno-economic analysis of a modular concentrated solar power tower with latent heat storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rea, Jonathan E.; Oshman, Christopher J.; Olsen, Michele L.; Hardin, Corey L.; Glatzmaier, Greg C.; Siegel, Nathan P.; Parilla, Philip A.; Ginley, David S.; Toberer, Eric S.

    2018-05-01

    In this paper, we present performance simulations and techno-economic analysis of a modular dispatchable solar power tower. Using a heliostat field and power block three orders of magnitude smaller than conventional solar power towers, our unique configuration locates thermal storage and a power block directly on a tower receiver. To make the system dispatchable, a valved thermosyphon controls heat flow from a latent heat thermal storage tank to a Stirling engine. The modular design results in minimal balance of system costs and enables high deployment rates with a rapid realization of economies of scale. In this new analysis, we combine performance simulations with techno-economic analysis to evaluate levelized cost of electricity, and find that the system has potential for cost-competitiveness with natural gas peaking plants and alternative dispatchable renewables.

  12. USING GEM - GLOBAL ECONOMIC MODEL IN ACHIEVING A GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECAST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Madalina Orac

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The global economic development model has proved to be insufficiently reliable under the new economic crisis. As a result, the entire theoretical construction about the global economy needs rethinking and reorientation. In this context, it is quite clear that only through effective use of specific techniques and tools of economic-mathematical modeling, statistics, regional analysis and economic forecasting it is possible to obtain an overview of the future economy.

  13. Ecosystem-management-based Management Models of Fast-growing and High-yield Plantation and Its Eco-economic Benefits Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    The paper expounded the basic concept and principles of ecosystem management,and analyzed the state and trend of industrial plantation ecosystem management in other countries.Based on the analysis of typical case studies,the eco-economic benefits were evaluated for the management models of fast-growing and high-yield plantations.

  14. Technological Options to Ameliorate Waste Treatment of Intensive Pig Production in China:An Analysis Based on Bio-Economic Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LU Wen-cong; MA Yong-xi; Holger Bergmann

    2014-01-01

    Ameliorating waste treatment by technological improvements affects the economic and the ecological-environment beneifts of intensive pig production. The objective of the research was to develop and test a method to determine the technical optimization to ameliorate waste treatment methods and gain insight into the relationship between technological options and the economic and ecological effects. We developed an integrated bio-economic model which incorporates the farming production and waste disposal systems to simulate the impact of technological improvements in pig manure treatment on economic and environmental benefits for the case of a pilot farm in Beijing, China. Based on different waste treatment technology options, three scenarios are applied for the simulation analysis of the model. The simulation results reveal that the economic-environmental beneifts of the livestock farm could be improved by reducing the cropland manure application and increasing the composting production with the current technologies. Nevertheless, the technical efifciency, the waste treatment capacity and the economic beneifts could be further improved by the introduction of new technologies. It implies that technological and economic support policies should be implemented comprehensively on waste disposal and resource utilization to promote sustainable development in intensive livestock production in China.

  15. Economic differences among regional public service broadcasters in Spain according to their management model. An empirical analysis for period 2010-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Víctor Orive Serrano

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This piece of research quantifies and analyses empirically the given economic differences among public service television in Spain according to the adopted management model (classic or outsourced. Design/methodology/approach: In so doing, an average contrast of different economic variables studied in the literature is conducted (audience share, total assets, public subsidies, cost of personnel, suppliers spending and profit after taxes. In addition, these variables are related so as to calculate productivity obtained by each two groups of television operators. This analysis is conducted for period 2010-2013, featured by a crisis context in the Spanish economy. Findings: Management model adopted by each regional broadcaster impacts on different economic variables as obtained share, total assets, public subsidies, cost of personnel, suppliers spending or profit after taxes. Moreover, those public corporations adopting an outsourced management model present better productivity values. Research limitations/implications: Only one country has been analyzed for a 4 years period. Practical implications: Regional public service broadcasters with an outsourced model present less economic losses and require less public subsidies by their corresponding regional governments. Social implications: Outsourcing part of the value chain can be useful so as to guarantee sustainability of regional public service television. Originality/value: It has been proven empirically that the management model of a regional public service television impacts its economic results.

  16. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Ki Dong; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Kim, H. S

    1999-12-01

    The objective of this study is to analyze how the economics of nuclear power generation are affected by the change in nuclear environmental factors and then, to suggest desirable policy directions to improve the efficiency of the use of nuclear energy resources in korea. This study focused to analyze the impact of the change in 3 major nuclear environmental factors in Korea on the economics of nuclear power generation. To do this, environmental external cost, nuclear R and fund, and carbon emission control according to UNFCCC were selected as the major factors. First of all, this study evaluated the impacts on the health and the environment of air pollutants emitted from coal power plant and nuclear power plant, two major electric power generating options in Korea. Then, the environmental external costs of those two options were estimated by transforming the health and environmental impact in to monetary values. To do this, AIRPACTS and 'Impacts of atmospheric release' model developed by IAEA were used. Secondly, the impact of nuclear R and D fund raised by the utility on the increment of nuclear power generating cost was evaluated. Then, the desirable size of the fund in Korea was suggested by taking into consideration the case of Japan. This study also analyzed the influences of the fund on the economics of nuclear power generation. Finally, the role of nuclear power under the carbon emission regulation was analyzed. To do this, the econometric model was developed and the impact of the regulation on the national economy was estimated. Further efforts were made to estimate the role by developing CGE model in order to improve the reliability of the results from the econometric model.

  17. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Ki Dong; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Kim, H. S.

    1999-12-01

    The objective of this study is to analyze how the economics of nuclear power generation are affected by the change in nuclear environmental factors and then, to suggest desirable policy directions to improve the efficiency of the use of nuclear energy resources in korea. This study focused to analyze the impact of the change in 3 major nuclear environmental factors in Korea on the economics of nuclear power generation. To do this, environmental external cost, nuclear R and fund, and carbon emission control according to UNFCCC were selected as the major factors. First of all, this study evaluated the impacts on the health and the environment of air pollutants emitted from coal power plant and nuclear power plant, two major electric power generating options in Korea. Then, the environmental external costs of those two options were estimated by transforming the health and environmental impact in to monetary values. To do this, AIRPACTS and 'Impacts of atmospheric release' model developed by IAEA were used. Secondly, the impact of nuclear R and D fund raised by the utility on the increment of nuclear power generating cost was evaluated. Then, the desirable size of the fund in Korea was suggested by taking into consideration the case of Japan. This study also analyzed the influences of the fund on the economics of nuclear power generation. Finally, the role of nuclear power under the carbon emission regulation was analyzed. To do this, the econometric model was developed and the impact of the regulation on the national economy was estimated. Further efforts were made to estimate the role by developing CGE model in order to improve the reliability of the results from the econometric model

  18. Economical modelling of social and moral norms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nyborg, Karine

    2001-01-01

    Social norms and moral motivations are often ignored in economic models. It is possible, however, to model social and moral norms within the framework of economical theory. This may be useful even if the exposition is necessarily simplified. The article gives some examples. An analysis shows how the ''No Smoking Act'' may have led to a change in social norms in Norway and indirectly changed the behaviour of smokers in places where this act does not apply. Behaviour with moral motivation may also be affected by changes in regulations, economic incentives or other external conditions. For example, a more efficient collection system for source-separated waste may induce people to sharpen the moral claim on their own efforts. Indeed, interviews show that imposing a fee upon people not volunteering in communal work may cause the attendance to drop further

  19. An Economic Analysis of Strategies to Control Clostridium Difficile Transmission and Infection Using an Agent-Based Simulation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Richard E; Jones, Makoto; Leecaster, Molly; Samore, Matthew H; Ray, William; Huttner, Angela; Huttner, Benedikt; Khader, Karim; Stevens, Vanessa W; Gerding, Dale; Schweizer, Marin L; Rubin, Michael A

    2016-01-01

    A number of strategies exist to reduce Clostridium difficile (C. difficile) transmission. We conducted an economic evaluation of "bundling" these strategies together. We constructed an agent-based computer simulation of nosocomial C. difficile transmission and infection in a hospital setting. This model included the following components: interactions between patients and health care workers; room contamination via C. difficile shedding; C. difficile hand carriage and removal via hand hygiene; patient acquisition of C. difficile via contact with contaminated rooms or health care workers; and patient antimicrobial use. Six interventions were introduced alone and "bundled" together: (a) aggressive C. difficile testing; (b) empiric isolation and treatment of symptomatic patients; (c) improved adherence to hand hygiene and (d) contact precautions; (e) improved use of soap and water for hand hygiene; and (f) improved environmental cleaning. Our analysis compared these interventions using values representing 3 different scenarios: (1) base-case (BASE) values that reflect typical hospital practice, (2) intervention (INT) values that represent implementation of hospital-wide efforts to reduce C. diff transmission, and (3) optimal (OPT) values representing the highest expected results from strong adherence to the interventions. Cost parameters for each intervention were obtained from published literature. We performed our analyses assuming low, normal, and high C. difficile importation prevalence and transmissibility of C. difficile. INT levels of the "bundled" intervention were cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/quality-adjusted life-year in all importation prevalence and transmissibility scenarios. OPT levels of intervention were cost-effective for normal and high importation prevalence and transmissibility scenarios. When analyzed separately, hand hygiene compliance, environmental decontamination, and empiric isolation and treatment were the

  20. Production economic models of fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper Levring

    The overall purpose of this PhD thesis is to investigate different aspects of fishermen’s behaviour using production economic models at the individual and industry levels. Three parts make up this thesis. The first part provides an overview of the thesis. The second part consists of four papers......, including all relevant factors in specific analyses is impossible, and it is therefore important to be aware of the most essential ones. As demonstrated in the literature review of Paper 1, a large number of factors may significantly influence fishermen’s short run behaviour, i.e. choice of gear type...

  1. Modeling the Impacts of Urbanization and Industrial Transformation on Water Resources in China: An Integrated Hydro-Economic CGE Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Jiang

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Pressure on existing water resources in China is expected to increase with undergoing rapid demographic transformation, economic development, and global climate changes. We investigate the economy-wide impacts of projected urban population growth and economic structural change on water use and allocation in China. Using a multi-regional CGE (Computable General Equilibrium model, TERM (The Enormous Regional Model, we explore the implications of selected future water scenarios for China’s nine watershed regions. Our results indicate that urbanization and industrial transformation in China will raise the opportunity cost of water use and increase the competition for water between non-agricultural users and irrigation water users. The growth in water demand for domestic and industrial uses reduces the amount of water allocated to agriculture, particularly lower-value and water-intensive field crops. As a response, farmers have the incentive to shift their agricultural operations from traditional field crop production to higher-value livestock or intensive crop production. In addition, our results suggest that growing water demand due to urbanization and industrial transformation will raise the shadow price of water in all nine river basins. Finally, we find that national economic growth is largely attributable to urbanization and non-agricultural productivity growth.

  2. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, S. S.; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Nam, J. H.; Noh, B. C.; Kim, H. R.

    2008-12-01

    The concerns on the global warming issues in the international community are bringing about a paradigm shift in the national economy including energy technology development. In this connection, the green growth mainly utilizing green technology, which emits low carbon, is being initiated by many advanced countries including Korea. The objective of the study is to evaluate the contribution to the national economy from nuclear energy attributable to the characteristics of green technology, to which nuclear energy belongs. The study covers the role of nuclear in addressing climate change issues, the proper share of nuclear in the electricity sector, the cost analyses of decommissioning and radioactive waste management, and the analysis on the economic performance of nuclear R and D including cost benefit analysis

  3. The Clinical and Economic Benefits of Co-Testing Versus Primary HPV Testing for Cervical Cancer Screening: A Modeling Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felix, Juan C; Lacey, Michael J; Miller, Jeffrey D; Lenhart, Gregory M; Spitzer, Mark; Kulkarni, Rucha

    2016-06-01

    Consensus United States cervical cancer screening guidelines recommend use of combination Pap plus human papillomavirus (HPV) testing for women aged 30 to 65 years. An HPV test was approved by the Food and Drug Administration in 2014 for primary cervical cancer screening in women age 25 years and older. Here, we present the results of clinical-economic comparisons of Pap plus HPV mRNA testing including genotyping for HPV 16/18 (co-testing) versus DNA-based primary HPV testing with HPV 16/18 genotyping and reflex cytology (HPV primary) for cervical cancer screening. A health state transition (Markov) model with 1-year cycling was developed using epidemiologic, clinical, and economic data from healthcare databases and published literature. A hypothetical cohort of one million women receiving triennial cervical cancer screening was simulated from ages 30 to 70 years. Screening strategies compared HPV primary to co-testing. Outcomes included total and incremental differences in costs, invasive cervical cancer (ICC) cases, ICC deaths, number of colposcopies, and quality-adjusted life years for cost-effectiveness calculations. Comprehensive sensitivity analyses were performed. In a simulation cohort of one million 30-year-old women modeled up to age 70 years, the model predicted that screening with HPV primary testing instead of co-testing could lead to as many as 2,141 more ICC cases and 2,041 more ICC deaths. In the simulation, co-testing demonstrated a greater number of lifetime quality-adjusted life years (22,334) and yielded $39.0 million in savings compared with HPV primary, thereby conferring greater effectiveness at lower cost. Model results demonstrate that co-testing has the potential to provide improved clinical and economic outcomes when compared with HPV primary. While actual cost and outcome data are evaluated, these findings are relevant to U.S. healthcare payers and women's health policy advocates seeking cost-effective cervical cancer screening

  4. Economic model of the US uranium market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owen, A.D.

    1984-01-01

    An economic model of the US uranium market is developed using annual data for the period 1966-81. The model consists of five stochastic equations explaining uranium consumption, forward commitments, mine production, contract prices, and spot prices. A forecasting exercise is also undertaken. By way of essential background information, however, an analysis of current trends in the international uranium market is given, followed by a summary of historical price movements in the US uranium market. A brief discussion on the current state of the US market precedes the statistical analysis. 19 footnotes and references, 3 tables

  5. Economic analysis of EBT reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, J.T.; Uckan, N.A.; Lidsky, L.M.

    1977-01-01

    In order to establish the economic potential of the Elmo Bumpy Torus (EBT) reactor, two independent system-costing models have been developed. Both models predict capital costs of approximately $400/kW(th). These relatively low costs reflect the simplicity of the EBTR design. In particular, the modular nature of the individual blanket-shield segments, the low costs ''accelerator style'' containment building, high beta, and steady-state operation lead to relatively low reactor costs. A detailed cost breakdown for subsystems is analyzed. High cost and high uncertainty subsystems are identified to direct further emphasis into those areas. The calculated capital costs for the EBT reactor are compared with those costs quoted for tokamak reactors

  6. Economic analysis of nuclear power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Ki Dong; Choi, Young Myung; Kim, Hwa Sup; Lee, Man Ki; Moon, Kee Hwan; Kim, Seung Su

    1997-12-01

    The major contents in this study are as follows : - long-term forecast to the year of 2040 is provided for nuclear electricity generating capacity by means of logistic curve fitting method. - the role of nuclear power in a national economy is analyzed in terms of environmental regulation. To do so, energy-economy linked model is developed. By using this model, the benefits from the introduction of nuclear power in Korea are estimated. Study on inter-industry economic activity for nuclear industry is carried out by means of an input-output analysis. Nuclear industry is examined in terms of inducement effect of production, of value-added, and of import. - economic analysis of nuclear power generation is performed especially taking into consideration wide variations of foreign currency exchange rate. The result is expressed in levelized generating costs. (author). 27 refs., 24 tabs., 44 figs

  7. The Economics of Online Dating: A Course in Economic Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monaco, Andrew J.

    2018-01-01

    The author discusses the development of a unique course, The Economics of Online Dating. The course is an upper-level undergraduate course that combines intensive discussion, peer review, and economic theory to teach modeling skills to undergraduates. The course uses the framework of "online dating," interpreted broadly, as a point of…

  8. Mathematical model in economic environmental problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nahorski, Z. [Polish Academy of Sciences, Systems Research Inst. (Poland); Ravn, H.F. [Risoe National Lab. (Denmark)

    1996-12-31

    The report contains a review of basic models and mathematical tools used in economic regulation problems. It starts with presentation of basic models of capital accumulation, resource depletion, pollution accumulation, and population growth, as well as construction of utility functions. Then the one-state variable model is discussed in details. The basic mathematical methods used consist of application of the maximum principle and phase plane analysis of the differential equations obtained as the necessary conditions of optimality. A summary of basic results connected with these methods is given in appendices. (au) 13 ills.; 17 refs.

  9. An Economic Analysis of Strategies to Control Clostridium Difficile Transmission and Infection Using an Agent-Based Simulation Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard E Nelson

    Full Text Available A number of strategies exist to reduce Clostridium difficile (C. difficile transmission. We conducted an economic evaluation of "bundling" these strategies together.We constructed an agent-based computer simulation of nosocomial C. difficile transmission and infection in a hospital setting. This model included the following components: interactions between patients and health care workers; room contamination via C. difficile shedding; C. difficile hand carriage and removal via hand hygiene; patient acquisition of C. difficile via contact with contaminated rooms or health care workers; and patient antimicrobial use. Six interventions were introduced alone and "bundled" together: (a aggressive C. difficile testing; (b empiric isolation and treatment of symptomatic patients; (c improved adherence to hand hygiene and (d contact precautions; (e improved use of soap and water for hand hygiene; and (f improved environmental cleaning. Our analysis compared these interventions using values representing 3 different scenarios: (1 base-case (BASE values that reflect typical hospital practice, (2 intervention (INT values that represent implementation of hospital-wide efforts to reduce C. diff transmission, and (3 optimal (OPT values representing the highest expected results from strong adherence to the interventions. Cost parameters for each intervention were obtained from published literature. We performed our analyses assuming low, normal, and high C. difficile importation prevalence and transmissibility of C. difficile.INT levels of the "bundled" intervention were cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/quality-adjusted life-year in all importation prevalence and transmissibility scenarios. OPT levels of intervention were cost-effective for normal and high importation prevalence and transmissibility scenarios. When analyzed separately, hand hygiene compliance, environmental decontamination, and empiric isolation and treatment were the

  10. The impact of the British model on economic growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon György Jr.

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper is searching for an answer to the question how the British model affected economic development in its mother country, the United Kingdom. The statistical analysis, models of mathematical economics and econometric investigation make it probable to conclude that there was a substantial difference in success between the Thatcherite and the Blairite economic policies; the latter proved more effective. It is particularly remarkable that the Blairite model, connecting privatization with a successful employment policy, reduced unemployment and social sensitivity, has not only speeded up economic growth but also improved economic equilibrium, curtailing, among others, the budget deficit.

  11. Teaching Economics: A Cooperative Learning Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caropreso, Edward J.; Haggerty, Mark

    2000-01-01

    Describes an alternative approach to introductory economics based on a cooperative learning model, "Learning Together." Discussion of issues in economics education and cooperative learning in higher education leads to explanation of how to adapt the Learning Together Model to lesson planning in economics. A flow chart illustrates the process for a…

  12. Relative controls of natural and socio-economic drivers on water availability over India: an exploratory modelling analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deshmukh, A.; Singh, R.; Kumar, R.

    2017-12-01

    India, a water stressed nation with an estimated per capita water availability of 1500m3/year/person, is projected to surpass China in population to become the most populous country by 2022. This increasing population will further exacerbate the water stress, which will also vary due to climate and land use change. Here, we quantify the relative controls on per capita water availability from climatic, non-climatic and socio-economic factors. We achieve this by using several definitions of per capita water availability and accounting for virtual water trade transfer. Our exploratory analysis employs the recently developed probabilistic Budyko framework modified to account for inter-regional virtual water trade. We find that the Indo-Gangetic plains and Southeastern parts of India emerge as vulnerable regions where a growing population will lead to a drastic reduction in per capita water availability. The proposed framework can serve as a prototype for understanding the relative importance of socio-economic interventions versus water infrastructure or demand reduction investments.

  13. Economic analysis of energy supply and national economy on the basis of general equilibrium models. Applications of the input-output decomposition analysis and the Computable General Equilibrium models shown by the example of Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ko, Jong-Hwan.

    1993-01-01

    Firstly, this study investigaties the causes of sectoral growth and structural changes in the Korean economy. Secondly, it develops the borders of a consistent economic model in order to investigate simultaneously the different impacts of changes in energy and in the domestic economy. This is done any both the Input-Output-Decomposition analysis and a Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE Model). The CGE Model eliminates the disadvantages of the IO Model and allows the investigation of the interdegenerative of the various energy sectors with the economy. The Social Accounting Matrix serves as the data basis of the GCE Model. Simulated experiments have been comet out with the help of the GCE Model, indicating the likely impact of an oil price shock in the economy-sectorally and generally. (orig.) [de

  14. Technical and economic analysis of hydrogen refuelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nistor, Silviu; Dave, Saraansh; Fan, Zhong; Sooriyabandara, Mahesh

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Technical and economic models of a hydrogen station for vehicles refuelling. • Hydrogen demand from fuel cell electric vehicles modelled stochastically. • Study case based on a UK pilot project. • Operation of the H_2 station using combined energy from wind and power grid is preferred. • Return on investment of 5–10 years is possible for the hydrogen station. - Abstract: This paper focuses on technical and economic analysis of a hydrogen refilling station to provide operational insight through tight coupling of technical models of physical processes and economic models. This allows the dynamic relationships of the system to be captured and analysed to provide short/medium term analytical capability to support system design, planning, and financing. The modelling developed here highlights the need to closely link technical and economic models for technology led projects where technical capability and commercial feasibility are important. The results show that hydrogen fuel can be competitive with petrol on a GBP/KG basis if the return on investment period is over 10 years for PEM electrolysers and 5 for Alkaline electrolysers. We also show that subsidies on capital costs (as reflected by some R&D funding programs) make both PEM and Alkaline technologies cheaper than the equivalent price of petrol, which suggests more emphasis should be put on commercialising R&D funded projects as they have commercial advantages. The paper also shows that a combined wind and grid connected station is preferable so that a higher number of customers are served (i.e. minimum shortage of hydrogen).

  15. Economic consequences of the Swiss 'Strom ohne Atom' and 'Moratorium Plus' popular initiatives - Analysis using a balanced model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, A.; Wickart, M.; Van Nieuwkoop, R.

    2001-01-01

    This article is a short version of the ENET number 210359. This report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) presents the results of a study made to assess the economic consequences of two models for the opting out of nuclear energy in Switzerland, as proposed in two popular initiatives. The 'Strom ohne Atom' (electricity without atomic power) initiative calls for the shutting down of the existing nuclear power stations and the 'Moratorium Plus' initiative calls for a stop on the building of new atomic power stations for 10 years. The method used for assessing the costs and benefits resulting if the initiatives were accepted in a public vote is described. Basic assumptions made on further factors concerning the electricity and energy markets are discussed. Results of analyses made for various scenarios with respect to CO 2 emissions are presented and include discussions on risk costs, effects on employment and welfare aspects

  16. Economic consequences of the Swiss 'Strom ohne Atom' and 'Moratorium Plus' popular initiatives - Analysis using a balanced model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, A.; Wickart, M.; Van Nieuwkoop, R.

    2001-01-01

    This report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) presents the results of a study made to assess the economic consequences of two models for the opting out of nuclear energy in Switzerland, as proposed in two popular initiatives. The 'Strom ohne Atom' (electricity without atomic power) initiative calls for the shutting down of the existing nuclear power stations and the 'Moratorium Plus' initiative calls for a stop on the building of new atomic power stations for 10 years. The method used for assessing the costs and benefits resulting if the initiatives were accepted in a public vote is described. Basic assumptions made on further factors concerning the electricity and energy markets are discussed. Results of analyses made for various scenarios with respect to CO 2 emissions are presented and include discussions on risk costs, effects on employment and welfare aspects

  17. Economic consequences of the Swiss 'Sortir du nucleaire' and 'Moratoire-plus' popular initiatives - Analysis using a balanced model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, A.; Wickart, M.; Van Nieuwkoop, R.

    2001-01-01

    This article is a short version of the ENET number 210359. This report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) presents the results of a study made to assess the economic consequences of two models for the opting out of nuclear energy in Switzerland, as proposed in two popular initiatives. The 'Sortir du nucleaire' (electricity without atomic power) initiative calls for the shutting down of the existing nuclear power stations and the 'Moratoire-plus' initiative calls for a stop on the building of new atomic power stations for 10 years. The method used for assessing the costs and benefits resulting if the initiatives were accepted in a public vote is described. Basic assumptions made on further factors concerning the electricity and energy markets are discussed. Results of analyses made for various scenarios with respect to CO 2 emissions are presented and include discussions on risk costs, effects on employment and welfare aspects

  18. Strategies of development and diversification: a comparative analysis of Qatar and Dubai’s economic development models

    OpenAIRE

    Althani, Aldana

    2017-01-01

    More than any other GCC states, political and economic foundation linkages between Dubai and Qatar have been great factors that could result in similar economic development. Shared oil boom experiences and early political cooperation brought several significant opportunities where Qatar and Dubai can manage similar economic development. Yet, Dubai’s government was able to develop and diversify its economy, thus becoming one of the largest economic hubs in the world, while Qatar wasn’t able to...

  19. Economic assessment model architecture for AGC/AVLIS selection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoglund, R.L.

    1984-01-01

    The economic assessment model architecture described provides the flexibility and completeness in economic analysis that the selection between AGC and AVLIS demands. Process models which are technology-specific will provide the first-order responses of process performance and cost to variations in process parameters. The economics models can be used to test the impacts of alternative deployment scenarios for a technology. Enterprise models provide global figures of merit for evaluating the DOE perspective on the uranium enrichment enterprise, and business analysis models compute the financial parameters from the private investor's viewpoint

  20. Hydro-economic modelling in mining catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ossa Moreno, J. S.; McIntyre, N.; Rivera, D.; Smart, J. C. R.

    2017-12-01

    Hydro-economic models are gaining momentum because of their capacity to model both the physical processes related to water supply, and socio-economic factors determining water demand. This is particularly valuable in the midst of the large uncertainty upon future climate conditions and social trends. Agriculture, urban uses and environmental flows have received a lot of attention from researchers, as these tend to be the main consumers of water in most catchments. Mine water demand, although very important in several small and medium-sized catchments worldwide, has received less attention and only few models have attempted to reproduce its dynamics with other users. This paper describes an on-going project that addresses this gap, by developing a hydro-economic model in the upper Aconcagua River in Chile. This is a mountain catchment with large scale mining and hydro-power users at high altitudes, and irrigation areas in a downstream valley. Relevant obstacles to the model included the lack of input climate data, which is a common feature in several mining areas, the complex hydrological processes in the area and the difficulty of quantifying the value of water used by mines. A semi-distributed model developed within the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP), was calibrated to reproduce water supply, and this was complemented with an analysis of the value of water for mining based on two methods; water markets and an analysis of its production processes. Agriculture and other users were included through methods commonly used in similar models. The outputs help understanding the value of water in the catchment, and its sensitivity to changes in climate variables, market prices, environmental regulations and changes in the production of minerals, crops and energy. The results of the project highlight the importance of merging hydrology and socio-economic calculations in mining regions, in order to better understand trade-offs and cost of opportunity of using

  1. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Han Myung; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Song, K. D.; Oh, K. B.

    2002-12-01

    This study deals with current energy issues, environmental aspects of energy, project feasibility evaluation, and activities of international organizations. Current energy issues including activities related with UNFCCC, sustainable development, and global concern on energy issues were surveyed with focusing on nuclear related activities. Environmental aspects of energy includes various topics such as, inter- industrial analysis of nuclear sector, the role of nuclear power in mitigating GHG emission, carbon capture and sequestration technology, hydrogen production by using nuclear energy, Life Cycle Analysis as a method of evaluating environmental impacts of a technology, and spent fuel management in the case of introducing fast reactor and/or accelerator driven system. Project feasibility evaluation includes nuclear desalination using SMART reactor, and introduction of COMFAR computer model, developed by UNIDO to carry out feasibility analysis in terms of business attitude. Activities of international organizations includes energy planning activities of IAEA and OECD/NEA, introduction of the activities of FNCA, one of the cooperation mechanism among Asian countries. In addition, MESSAGE computer model was also introduced. The model is being developed by IAEA to effectively handle liberalization of electricity market combined with environmental constraints

  2. The Need of a New Economic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandru Cătălin POPA

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The current global economic crisis has proven to be unpredictable for most decision-makers worldwide. Moreover, beliefs deeply embedded in the minds of economists about economics, about the virtues of capitalism and free market began to falter. Sooner or later the current crisis will end. The problem that arises and to which the economic science must answer is whether anything should be changed in the current world economic order and especially what exactly. It is quite vital to ask ourselves today in what kind of society we want to live and whether the current economic model, a model mainly based on monetarist ideas, is helping us to achieve those wishes. In addition to analyzing the root causes that led to the current economic crisis, this article aims to analyze whether the current economic model must change and to outline the features of a possible new model.

  3. Economic Feasibility Analysis Report. Strategic Mobility 21

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mallon, Lawrence G; Monaco, Kristen; Fetty, George R

    2007-01-01

    .... This multi-disciplinary analysis provides an objective examination of the economic and operational feasibility of a shuttle train intermodal rail operation under various scenarios connecting the San...

  4. The contention within health economics: a micro-economic foundation using a macro-economic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaxley, I L

    1998-03-01

    Health economists claim to use market economics combined with the micro-economic concepts of opportunity cost and the margin to advise on priority setting. However, they are advising on setting priorities through a macro-economic analysis using the costs of the supplier, thus prioritising the producer and not the consumer as the dynamic of economic activity. For health economists any contention within priority setting is due to lack of data not their confusion over fundamental concepts.

  5. The economic impact of pilgrimage: An economic impact analysis of pilgrimage expenditures in Galicia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Graave, Elisabeth J.E.; Klijs, J.; Heijman, W.J.M.

    2017-01-01

    In this article, we calculate the economic impact of pilgrimage to Santiago de Compostela in the NUTS 2 region Galicia (Spain) in 2010. This economic impact is relevant to policymakers and other stakeholders dealing with religious tourism in Galicia. The analysis is based on the Input-Output model.

  6. Modeling and simulation of economic processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Brumar

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In general, any activity requires a longer action often characterized by a degree of uncertainty, insecurity, in terms of size of the objective pursued. Because of the complexity of real economic systems, the stochastic dependencies between different variables and parameters considered, not all systems can be adequately represented by a model that can be solved by analytical methods and covering all issues for management decision analysis-economic horizon real. Often in such cases, it is considered that the simulation technique is the only alternative available. Using simulation techniques to study real-world systems often requires a laborious work. Making a simulation experiment is a process that takes place in several stages.

  7. An assessment of the adaptability and validity of the SocioEconomic Analysis of Repository Siting (SEARS) Modeling System: Summary report: Draft report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murdock, S.H.; Leistritz, F.L.; Hamm, R.R.

    1984-01-01

    This report presents a summary of results of an assessment of the adaptability, sensitivity, and accuracy of the SEARS model. Specifically, after describing the methods used in the analysis, the report presents a discussion of each aspect of the model evaluation process. The adaptation of the system to three states (Louisiana, Wyoming, and Texas) is described in light of the three key aspects of model transfer: collection and preparation of input data, model code alterations, and resources required. The second major topic discussed is the sensitivity analysis, which consisted of evaluations of the model's ability to simulate the impact process and to show the expected the acuracy of the model. This analysis consisted of the projection of economic and demographic factors from 1970 to 1980, using data inputs for 1970, followed by comparisons of the model's projections to reported values from the 1980 Census and similar sources for regions, counties and cities in the three states. The analyses described in this report thus provide a comprehensive assessment of the SEARS methodology and one of the most complete and comprehensive assessments ever performed of the validity of a socioeconomic assessment model. 44 refs., 6 tabs

  8. Energy production from tannery solid wastes : thermal balance, models of process yields and economic analysis; Produzione di energia da residui conciariprocesso e analisi di fattibilita`

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manzo, G; Grasso, G.; Bufalo, G. [Stazione Sperimentale per l`Industria delle Pelli e Materie Concianti, Naples (Italy)

    1996-01-01

    Present paper deals with a modeling approach to the recovery of thermal energy, chromium and compost from tannery solid wastes, by incineration to ash and biomethanization to digested biomass. A thermal balance on the whole industrial Italian production of tanning residues firstly quantifies the impact of the matter. A model was successively developed in order to compute the caloric content of the different kinds of residues, starting from their elementary composition. Proper models of the process yields, for both the incineration and biomethanization, were also derived. Finally an economic cost analysis of the incineration process was presented, conveniently disaggregated on the single cost elements. This analysis was based on the previously obtained data both of heat and chromium recovery and on matter-balance data of a typical tanning process (chromium shoe upper produced from salted bovine hide).

  9. Economic analysis of recycling contaminated concrete

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stephen, A.; Ayers, K.W.; Boren, J.K.; Parker, F.L. [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN (United States)

    1997-02-01

    Decontamination and Decommissioning activities in the DOE complex generate large volumes of radioactively contaminated and uncontaminated concrete. Currently, this concrete is usually decontaminated, the contaminated waste is disposed of in a LLW facility and the decontaminated concrete is placed in C&D landfills. A number of alternatives to this practice are available including recycling of the concrete. Cost estimates for six alternatives were developed using a spreadsheet model. The results of this analysis show that recycling alternatives are at least as economical as current practice.

  10. Economic Analysis of Several Nuclear Fuel Cycles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ko, Won Il; Gao, Fanxing; Kim, Sung Ki

    2012-01-01

    Economics is one of the essential criteria to be considered for the future deployment of the nuclear power. With regard to the competitive power market, the cost of electricity from nuclear power plants is somewhat highly competitive with those from the other electricity generations, averaging lower in cost than fossil fuels, wind, or solar. However, a closer look at the nuclear power production brings an insight that the cost varies within a wide range, highly depending on a nuclear fuel cycle option. The option of nuclear fuel cycle is a key determinant in the economics, and therefrom, a comprehensive comparison among the proposed fuel cycle options necessitates an economic analysis for thirteen promising options based on the material flow analysis obtained by an equilibrium model as specified in the first article (Modeling and System Analysis of Different Fuel Cycle Options for Nuclear Power Sustainability (I): Uranium Consumption and Waste Generation). The objective of the article is to provide a systematic cost comparison among these nuclear fuel cycles. The generation cost (GC) generally consists of a capital cost, an operation and maintenance cost (O and M cost), a fuel cycle cost (FCC), and a decontaminating and decommissioning (D and D) cost. FCC includes a frontend cost and a back-end cost, as well as costs associated with fuel recycling in the cases of semi-closed and closed cycle options. As a part of GC, the economic analysis on FCC mainly focuses on the cost differences among fuel cycle options considered and therefore efficiently avoids the large uncertainties of the Generation-IV reactor capital costs and the advanced reprocessing costs. However, the GC provides a more comprehensive result covering all the associated costs, and therefrom, both GC and FCC have been analyzed, respectively. As a widely applied tool, the levelized cost (mills/KWh) proves to be a fundamental calculation principle in the energy and power industry, which is particularly

  11. The Modeling of the Processes of Assessment and Analysis of the Level of Socio-Ecological-Economic Development of a Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pilko Andriy D.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available There presented results of the research of existing scientific and methodological, and theoretical approaches to management of the socio-ecological-economic development of a region with subsequent definition of priorities of the regional policy taking into account the concepts of security and development. Based on the study of literature sources and the analysis of the available statistical base, the problem of assessing the level of social, economic, ecological development, the level of sustainable development and the degree of harmonization of sustainable development of territorial systems of a region is formulated, and a possible method of its solution is suggested. The direction and nature of the cause-effect relationships between social tension and the levels of economic, environmental, social development and the level of sustainable development of a region are determined. There proposed a scheme to build models for assessing the effectiveness of levers for managing social, economic and environmental processes at the level of territorial systems in a region, taking into account the level of social tension and indicators of the investment component of development.

  12. Assessing the economic impact of paternal involvement: a comparison of the generalized linear model versus decision analysis trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salihu, Hamisu M; Salemi, Jason L; Nash, Michelle C; Chandler, Kristen; Mbah, Alfred K; Alio, Amina P

    2014-08-01

    Lack of paternal involvement has been shown to be associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes, including infant morbidity and mortality, but the impact on health care costs is unknown. Various methodological approaches have been used in cost minimization and cost effectiveness analyses and it remains unclear how cost estimates vary according to the analytic strategy adopted. We illustrate a methodological comparison of decision analysis modeling and generalized linear modeling (GLM) techniques using a case study that assesses the cost-effectiveness of potential father involvement interventions. We conducted a 12-year retrospective cohort study using a statewide enhanced maternal-infant database that contains both clinical and nonclinical information. A missing name for the father on the infant's birth certificate was used as a proxy for lack of paternal involvement, the main exposure of this study. Using decision analysis modeling and GLM, we compared all infant inpatient hospitalization costs over the first year of life. Costs were calculated from hospital charges using department-level cost-to-charge ratios and were adjusted for inflation. In our cohort of 2,243,891 infants, 9.2% had a father uninvolved during pregnancy. Lack of paternal involvement was associated with higher rates of preterm birth, small-for-gestational age, and infant morbidity and mortality. Both analytic approaches estimate significantly higher per-infant costs for father uninvolved pregnancies (decision analysis model: $1,827, GLM: $1,139). This paper provides sufficient evidence that healthcare costs could be significantly reduced through enhanced father involvement during pregnancy, and buttresses the call for a national program to involve fathers in antenatal care.

  13. Economic models for battery energy storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reckrodt, R.C.; Anderson, M.D.; Kluczny, R.M.

    1990-01-01

    While the technology required to produce viable Battery Energy Storage System exists, the economic feasibility (cost vs. benefits) of building these systems requires justification. First, a generalized decision diagram was developed to ensure that all of the economic factors were considered and properly related for the customer-side-of-the meter. Next, two economic models that had consistently given differing results were compared. One was the McKinney model developed at UM-Rolla in 1987; the second was the SYSPLAN model developed by Battelle. Differences were resolved on a point by point basis with reference to the current economic environment. The economic model was upgraded to include the best of both models based on the resolution of these differences. The upgrades were implemented as modifications to the original SYSPLAN (1986 version) to preserve user friendliness. In this paper four specific cases are evaluated and compared. The results are as predicted, since comparison was made with two known models

  14. Economic Analysis of Biological Invasions in Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomas P. Holmes; Julian Aukema; Jeffrey Englin; Robert G. Haight; Kent Kovacs; Brian Leung

    2014-01-01

    Biological invasions of native forests by nonnative pests result from complex stochastic processes that are difficult to predict. Although economic optimization models describe efficient controls across the stages of an invasion, the ability to calibrate such models is constrained by lack of information on pest population dynamics and consequent economic damages. Here...

  15. Economics, modeling, planning and management of energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, H.H.; Khan, A.M.; Furlan, G.

    1989-01-01

    The Workshop attended by 89 participants from 40 countries aimed to provide participants with an overview of global and regional issues and to familiarize them with analytical tools and modeling techniques appropriate for the analysis and planning of national energy systems. Emphasis was placed on energy-economy-interaction, modelling for balancing energy demand and supply, technical-economic evaluation of energy supply alternatives and energy demand management. This volume presents some of the lectures delivered at the Workshop. The material has been organized in five parts under the headings General Review of Current Energy Trends, Energy and Technology Menu, Basic Analytical Approaches, Energy Modeling and Planning, and Energy Management and Policy. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the lectures presented. Refs, figs and tabs

  16. Partial differential equation models in the socio-economic sciences

    KAUST Repository

    Burger, Martin; Caffarelli, Luis; Markowich, Peter A.

    2014-01-01

    Mathematical models based on partial differential equations (PDEs) have become an integral part of quantitative analysis in most branches of science and engineering, recently expanding also towards biomedicine and socio-economic sciences

  17. Economic analysis of fuel treatments

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. Evan Mercer; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

    2012-01-01

    The economics of wildfire is complicated because wildfire behavior depends on the spatial and temporal scale at which management decisions made, and because of uncertainties surrounding the results of management actions. Like the wildfire processes they seek to manage, interventions through fire prevention programs, suppression, and fuels management are scale dependent...

  18. Economic Evaluation and Impact Analysis of SMART

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, K. H.; Kim, J. H.; Boo, K. D.; Park, S. B.

    2010-07-01

    The objective of this study is to analyze the economic value and contribution to the national economy of the SMART project. This study tries to evaluate three kinds of values of the project separately; national economy contribution, the financial cost-benefit analysis and intangible social benefit of the project. The research methods are Net Present Valuation (NPT) for the first analysis, Input-Output (IO) model for the second analysis and Contingent Valuation Method(CVM) for the last analysis. This study tries to answer for the following questions: (1) how much does the project affect on Korean national economy in area of construction, electricity generation and export? (2) what is the financial cost - benefit assessment of the SMART project which is of the most interest to the private sector constructing the reactor? (3) how much is the project's intangible social gains in that it brings Korea's scientific development in area of nuclear generation and improves Korea's global standing? Main Results of Research are (1) Domestic Construction and Electricity Generation of the 1st Reactor A. Contribution to the National Economy Production inducing effect by the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor amounts to 1,801 ∼2,059 billion won, value added inducing effect amounts to 789∼919 billion won, and employment inducing effect amounts to 11,015∼12, 856 men. B. Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment Financial cost - benefit of the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor turns out to be economically non-profitable from the point of view of private companies participating the project, by having economic loss over all scenarios of construction costs. C. Combining Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment and Contribution to the National Economy's Value-Added Combining financial cost - benefit and value added inducing effect of the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor turns out to be economically valid from the point of view of

  19. The different modes of hydro-economic analysis (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harou, J. J.; Binions, O.; Erfani, T.

    2013-12-01

    In the face of growing water demands, climate change and spatial and temporal water access variability, accurately assessing the economic impacts of proposed water resource management changes is useful. The objective of this project funded by UK Water Industry Research was to present and demonstrate a framework for identifying and using the ';value of water' to enable water utilities and their regulators to make better decisions. A hydro-economic model can help evaluate water management options in terms of their hydrological and economic impact at different locations throughout a catchment over time. In this talk we discuss three modes in which hydro-economic models can be implemented: evaluative, behavioral and prescriptive. In evaluation mode economic water demand and benefit functions are used to post-process water resource management model results to assess the economic impacts (over space and time) of a policy under consideration. In behavioral hydro-economic models users are represented as agents and the economics is used to help predict their actions. In prescriptive mode optimization is used to find the most economically efficient management actions such as allocation patterns or source selection. These three types of hydro-economic analysis are demonstrated on a UK watershed (Great River Ouse) that includes 97 different water abstractors from amongst the public water supply, agriculture, industry and energy plant cooling sectors. The following issues under dry and normal historical conditions were investigated: Supply/demand investment planning, societal cost of environmental flows, water market prices, and scarcity-sensitive charges for water rights. The talk discusses which hydro-economic modeling mode is used to study each of these issues and why; example results are shown and discussed. The topic of how hydro-economic models can be built and deployed effectively is covered along with how existing water utility operational and planning tools can be

  20. Modeling fates and impacts for bio-economic analysis of hypothetical oil spill scenarios in San Francisco Bay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    French McCay, D.; Whittier, N.; Sankaranarayanan, S.; Jennings, J.; Etkin, D.S.

    2002-01-01

    The oil spill risks associated with four submerged rock pinnacles near Alcatraz Island in San Francisco Bay are being evaluated by the United States Army Corps of Engineers. Oil spill modeling has been conducted for a hypothetical oil spill to determine biological impacts, damages to natural resources and response costs. The scenarios are hypothetical vessel grounding on the pinnacles. The SIMAP modeling software by the Applied Science Associates was used to model 3 spill sizes (20, 50 and 95 percentile by volume) and 4 types of oil (gasoline, diesel, heavy fuel oil, and crude oil). The frequency distribution of oil fates and impacts was determined by first running each scenario in stochastic mode. The oil fates and biological effects of the spills were the focus of this paper. It was shown that diesel and crude oil spills would have greater impacts in the water column than heavy fuel or gasoline because gasoline is more volatile and less toxic and because heavy oil spills would be small in volume. It was determined that the major impacts and damage to birds would be low due to the high dilution potential of the bay. It was also noted that dispersants would be very effective in reducing impacts on wildlife and the shoreline. These results are being used to evaluate the cost-benefit analysis of removing the rocks versus the risk of an oil spill. The work demonstrates a statistically quantifiable method to estimate potential impacts that could be used in ecological risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis. 15 refs., 13 tabs., 11 figs

  1. Analysis of Economic Factors Affecting Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Xie, Linyin

    2010-01-01

    This dissertation concentrates on analysis of economic factors affecting Chinese stock market through examining relationship between stock market index and economic factors. Six economic variables are examined: industrial production, money supply 1, money supply 2, exchange rate, long-term government bond yield and real estate total value. Stock market comprises fixed interest stocks and equities shares. In this dissertation, stock market is restricted to equity market. The stock price in thi...

  2. Modeling and analysis of selected organization for economic cooperation and development PKL-3 station blackout experiments using TRACE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roman Mukin

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available A series of tests dedicated to station blackout (SBO accident scenarios have been recently performed at the Primärkreislauf-Versuchsanlage (primary coolant loop test facility; PKL facility in the framework of the OECD/NEA PKL-3 project. These investigations address current safety issues related to beyond design basis accident transients with significant core heat up. This work presents a detailed analysis using the best estimate thermal–hydraulic code TRACE (v5.0 Patch4 of different SBO scenarios conducted at the PKL facility; failures of high- and low-pressure safety injection systems together with steam generator (SG feedwater supply are considered, thus calling for adequate accident management actions and timely implementation of alternative emergency cooling procedures to prevent core meltdown. The presented analysis evaluates the capability of the applied TRACE model of the PKL facility to correctly capture the sequences of events in the different SBO scenarios, namely the SBO tests H2.1, H2.2 run 1 and H2.2 run 2, including symmetric or asymmetric secondary side depressurization, primary side depressurization, accumulator (ACC injection in the cold legs and secondary side feeding with mobile pump and/or primary side emergency core coolant injection from the fuel pool cooling pump. This study is focused specifically on the prediction of the core exit temperature, which drives the execution of the most relevant accident management actions. This work presents, in particular, the key improvements made to the TRACE model that helped to improve the code predictions, including the modeling of dynamical heat losses, the nodalization of SGs' heat exchanger tubes and the ACCs. Another relevant aspect of this work is to evaluate how well the model simulations of the three different scenarios qualitatively and quantitatively capture the trends and results exhibited by the actual experiments. For instance, how the number of SGs considered for

  3. The Cost Effectiveness of Psychological and Pharmacological Interventions for Social Anxiety Disorder: A Model-Based Economic Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ifigeneia Mavranezouli

    Full Text Available Social anxiety disorder is one of the most persistent and common anxiety disorders. Individually delivered psychological therapies are the most effective treatment options for adults with social anxiety disorder, but they are associated with high intervention costs. Therefore, the objective of this study was to assess the relative cost effectiveness of a variety of psychological and pharmacological interventions for adults with social anxiety disorder.A decision-analytic model was constructed to compare costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs of 28 interventions for social anxiety disorder from the perspective of the British National Health Service and personal social services. Efficacy data were derived from a systematic review and network meta-analysis. Other model input parameters were based on published literature and national sources, supplemented by expert opinion.Individual cognitive therapy was the most cost-effective intervention for adults with social anxiety disorder, followed by generic individual cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT, phenelzine and book-based self-help without support. Other drugs, group-based psychological interventions and other individually delivered psychological interventions were less cost-effective. Results were influenced by limited evidence suggesting superiority of psychological interventions over drugs in retaining long-term effects. The analysis did not take into account side effects of drugs.Various forms of individually delivered CBT appear to be the most cost-effective options for the treatment of adults with social anxiety disorder. Consideration of side effects of drugs would only strengthen this conclusion, as it would improve even further the cost effectiveness of individually delivered CBT relative to phenelzine, which was the next most cost-effective option, due to the serious side effects associated with phenelzine. Further research needs to determine more accurately the long

  4. HTGR Application Economic Model Users' Manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gandrik, A.M.

    2012-01-01

    The High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) Application Economic Model was developed at the Idaho National Laboratory for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project. The HTGR Application Economic Model calculates either the required selling price of power and/or heat for a given internal rate of return (IRR) or the IRR for power and/or heat being sold at the market price. The user can generate these economic results for a range of reactor outlet temperatures; with and without power cycles, including either a Brayton or Rankine cycle; for the demonstration plant, first of a kind, or nth of a kind project phases; for up to 16 reactor modules; and for module ratings of 200, 350, or 600 MWt. This users manual contains the mathematical models and operating instructions for the HTGR Application Economic Model. Instructions, screenshots, and examples are provided to guide the user through the HTGR Application Economic Model. This model was designed for users who are familiar with the HTGR design and Excel and engineering economics. Modification of the HTGR Application Economic Model should only be performed by users familiar with the HTGR and its applications, Excel, and Visual Basic.

  5. Economic and Technical Efficiency of the Biomass Industry in China: A Network Data Envelopment Analysis Model Involving Externalities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingyou Yan

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes the network data envelopment analysis (DEA model accounting for negative externalities and applies it for decomposition of profit inefficiency in the biomass-agriculture circular system (Bio-AG system. A circular structure of the Bio-AG system which is different from the previously applied network structures is assumed. Since the negative externalities (i.e., pollutant emissions from the biomass industry occur in the Bio-AG system, the property rights are taken into consideration to model the externalities-adjusted profits. Therefore, the changes in profits due to changes in the property rights (assuming no property rights, allocating property rights to agricultural sector, and allocating property rights to biomass power generation sector are quantified. Further, the decomposition shows that the biomass power generation sector is less affected by technical inefficiency if contrasted to allocative inefficiency in terms of the profit loss. The findings suggest that the biomass power generation technology influences the profits of the biomass industry. What is more, the inefficient allocation of resources is now the key factor undermining performance of the biomass industry. Therefore, the government should adopt measures to improve the allocation of resources and prevent excessive investments or development of less efficient technologies.

  6. Modeling the impact of the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in Chinese infants: an economic analysis of a compulsory vaccination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Che, Datian; Zhou, Hua; He, Jinchun; Wu, Bin

    2014-02-07

    The purpose of this study was to compare, from a Chinese societal perspective, the projected health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of adding pneumococcal conjugate heptavalent vaccine (PCV-7) to the routine compulsory child immunization schedule. A decision-tree model, with data and assumptions adapted for relevance to China, was developed to project the health outcomes of PCV-7 vaccination (compared with no vaccination) over a 5-year period as well as a lifetime. The vaccinated birth cohort included 16,000,000 children in China. A 2 + 1 dose schedule at US$136.51 per vaccine dose was used in the base-case analysis. One-way sensitivity analysis was used to test the robustness of the model. The impact of a net indirect effect (herd immunity) was evaluated. Outcomes are presented in terms of the saved disease burden, costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. In a Chinese birth cohort, a PCV-7 vaccination program would reduce the number of pneumococcus-related infections by at least 32% and would prevent 2,682 deaths in the first 5 years of life, saving $1,190 million in total costs and gaining an additional 9,895 QALYs (discounted by 3%). The incremental cost per QALY was estimated to be $530,354. When herd immunity was taken into account, the cost per QALY was estimated to be $95,319. The robustness of the model was influenced mainly by the PCV-7 cost per dose, effectiveness herd immunity and incidence of pneumococcal diseases. With and without herd immunity, the break-even costs in China were $29.05 and $25.87, respectively. Compulsory routine infant vaccination with PCV-7 is projected to substantially reduce pneumococcal disease morbidity, mortality, and related costs in China. However, a universal vaccination program with PCV-7 is not cost-effective at the willingness-to-pay threshold that is currently recommended for China by the World Health Organization.

  7. ANALYSIS OF FACTORS WHICH AFFECTING THE ECONOMIC GROWTH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suparna Wijaya

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available High economic growth and sustainable process are main conditions for sustainability of economic country development. They are also become measures of the success of the country's economy. Factors which tested in this study are economic and non-economic factors which impacting economic development. This study has a goal to explain the factors that influence on macroeconomic Indonesia. It used linear regression modeling approach. The analysis result showed that Tax Amnesty, Exchange Rate, Inflation, and interest rate, they jointly can bring effect which amounted to 77.6% on economic growth whereas the remaining 22.4% is the influenced by other variables which not observed in this study. Keywords: tax amnesty, exchange rates, inflation, SBI and economic growth

  8. Thermoeconomic and environmental analyses of a low water consumption combined steam power plant and refrigeration chillers – Part 1: Energy and economic modelling and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ifaei, Pouya; Rashidi, Jouan; Yoo, ChangKyoo

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Proposing two energy systems by combining refrigeration chillers and power plants. • Model-based comparison of the systems through energy and economic standpoints. • Reducing total annual costs of the base system up to 4.7% by process integration. • Decreasing the water loss in wet cooling towers by up to 18% in the proposed system. • Suggesting a water-fuel economic management strategy based on parametric analysis. - Abstract: Two novel configurations are proposed to replace the conventional Rankine cycle based steam power plants (SPP) with natural draft wet cooling towers (NDWCT) as cooling units. Closed feedwater heater unit of the base SPP-NDWCT system is eliminated in order to combine a vapor compression refrigeration (VCR) and an absorption heat pump (ABHP) with the base SPP-NDWCT system. Both VCR-SPP-NDWCT and ABHP-SPP-NDWCT systems are integrated to decrease the NDWCT load which could result in water losses decrease. In part one of the presented two-part paper, model-based energy and economic analyses are performed to compare systems performance and applicability. The temperature difference at pinch point and temperature difference between the hot and cold sides of the heat exchangers which were used for systems integration in VCR-SPP-NDWCT, and the absorber pressure and temperature in ABHP-SPP-NDWCT system are studied using parametric analysis procedure. A water-fuel management strategy is also introduced for the ABHP-SPP-NDWCT system according to the influence of the absorber pressure changes on system water and fuel consumption. In part 2, environmental and thermoeconomic analyses are performed to complete a comprehensive study on designing steam power plants. The results of part 1 showed that water losses and total annual costs decreased by 1–18% and 0–4.7% for the ABHP-SPP-NDWCT system but increased by 11% and 60% for the VCR-SPP-NDWCT system, respectively.

  9. Economic analysis of nuclear reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owen, P.S.; Parker, M.B.; Omberg, R.P.

    1979-05-01

    The report presents several methods for estimating the power costs of nuclear reactors. When based on a consistent set of economic assumptions, total power costs may be useful in comparing reactor alternatives. The principal items contributing to the total power costs of a nuclear power plant are: (1) capital costs, (2) fuel cycle costs, (3) operation and maintenance costs, and (4) income taxes and fixed charges. There is a large variation in capital costs and fuel expenses among different reactor types. For example, the standard once-through LWR has relatively low capital costs; however, the fuel costs may be very high if U 3 O 8 is expensive. In contrast, the FBR has relatively high capital costs but low fuel expenses. Thus, the distribution of expenses varies significantly between these two reactors. In order to compare power costs, expenses and revenues associated with each reactor may be spread over the lifetime of the plant. A single annual cost, often called a levelized cost, may be obtained by the methods described. Levelized power costs may then be used as a basis for economic comparisons. The paper discusses each of the power cost components. An exact expression for total levelized power costs is derived. Approximate techniques of estimating power costs will be presented

  10. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Man Ki; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Song, K. D.; Lee, H. M.; Oh, K. B.

    2003-12-01

    This study consists of various issues as follows; electricity price regulation in the liberalized electricity market, establishment of carbon emission limit in national electricity sector, the role of nuclear power as an future energy supply option, the future prospect of CO2 capture and sequestration and current research status of that area in Korea, and Preliminary economic feasibility study of MIP(Medical Isotopes Producer). In the price regulation in the liberalized electricity market, the characteristic of liberalized electricity market in terms of regulation was discussed. The current status and future projection of GHG emission in Korean electricity sector was also investigated. After that, how to set the GHG emission limit in the national electricity sector was discussed. The characteristic of nuclear technology and the research in progress were summarized with the suggestion of the possible new application of nuclear power. The current status and future prospect of the CO2 capture and sequestration research was introduced and current research status of that area in Korea was investigated. Preliminary economic feasibility study of MIP(Medical Isotopes Producer), using liquid nuclear fuel to produce medical isotopes of Mo-99 and Sr-89, was performed

  11. Economic modeling of new stent platforms to evaluate cost effectiveness: analysis of the TAXUS Liberté versus TAXUS express stents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turco, Mark A; Kansal, Anuraag R; Stern, Sean; Amorosi, Stacey L; Underwood, Paul L; Lissovoy, Greg D E; Dawkins, Keith D

    2012-08-01

    With the changing health care environment, cost effectiveness is an important adjunct to clinical investigation when assessing new medical devices. This study presents an economic model to evaluate cost effectiveness of coronary stents. Markov modeling was developed comparing total costs (Medicare payer perspective) between TAXUS Liberté and TAXUS Express based on 3-year clinical outcomes from the TAXUS ATLAS Small Vessel and Long Lesion trials. The TAXUS Liberté 2.25-mm stent provided cost savings relative to TAXUS Express from a payer perspective ($17,605 vs. $20,281), driven by reduced target vessel revascularization (0.16 events/patient vs. 0.33 events/patient). In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, TAXUS Liberté was less costly with fewer major adverse cardiac events in over 99% of parameter sets. The TAXUS Liberté Long (38 mm) stent was cost neutral relative to TAXUS Express from a payer perspective ($18,545 vs. $18,551) with fewer myocardial infarctions and cardiac deaths. Accounting for angiography-driven revascularizations, TAXUS Liberté 2.25 mm still provided cost savings relative to TAXUS Express ($16,822 vs. $19,139), although TAXUS Liberté Long was more expensive than TAXUS Express ($17,886 vs. $17,652). From a hospital perspective, TAXUS Liberté Long provided cost savings up to a price premium of $671/stent, driven by fewer stents employed per patient. This analysis confirms the utility of economic modeling in assessing new stent platforms. TAXUS Liberté 2.25 mm is economically dominant relative to TAXUS Express when treating small vessels. TAXUS Liberté Long is cost neutral to modestly more costly than TAXUS Express 2.25 mm from a payer perspective. ©2012, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Economic Analysis of Cyber Security

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gallaher, Michael P; Rowe, Brent R; Rogozhin, Alex V; Link, Albert N

    2006-01-01

    .... However, few organizations attempt such analysis for their cyber security mechanisms. Key performance and evaluation metrics are not available, so organizations rely on qualitative assessments...

  13. Economic Analysis of Long Working Hours (Japanese)

    OpenAIRE

    OHTAKE Fumio; OKUDAIRA Hiroko

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we set out the economic grounds for restrictions on long working hours and conduct an empirical analysis using surveys from the perspective of behavioral economics. The results of the analysis indicate that, on a year-on-year basis, if state of health improves, the probability of working more than 60 hours per week increases significantly, but that even when state of health deteriorates there is no decrease in the probability of working long hours. Moreover, among male managemen...

  14. Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Niels Framroze

    2008-01-01

    Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity in the econo......Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity...... are related to expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc. Finally, the general-partial equilibrium distinction is analyzed....

  15. Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Niels Framroze

    2008-01-01

    Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity in the econo......Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity...... parameters of the CVAR are shown to be interpretable in terms of expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc. The general-partial equilibrium distinction is also discussed....

  16. Modeling the Economic Behavior of Households within the Context of Development of Economic Thought

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivanov Roman V.

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the publication is to study formation of the household economic behavior modeling in the context of development of economic thought and methods of the economic-mathematical modeling. The study was carried out under the assumption that, when studying the development of theoretical and methodological foundations of the economic behavior of households one must take into account not only the history of development of economic theory, but also the transformation of attitudes in other areas of human knowledge, in particular the paradigm shift in scientific thinking. It has been specified that the massive use of mathematical methods in economics is associated with formation of the marginal theory and at the same time – with the proliferation of the marginal analysis. At the present stage, the economic behavior of households is being analyzed in the terms of concepts such as neoclassicism, institutionalism and behaviorism. But by dividing the concepts of «individual» and «household», it can be argued that precisely the institutionalism in conjunction with synergistic approach provide the basis for elaboration of strategies for the economic behavior of households, ensuring their economic security.

  17. Structural modelling of economic growth: Technological changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sukharev Oleg

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Neoclassical and Keynesian theories of economic growth assume the use of Cobb-Douglas modified functions and other aggregate econometric approaches to growth dynamics modelling. In that case explanations of economic growth are based on the logic of the used mathematical ratios often including the ideas about aggregated values change and factors change a priori. The idea of assessment of factor productivity is the fundamental one among modern theories of economic growth. Nevertheless, structural parameters of economic system, institutions and technological changes are practically not considered within known approaches, though the latter is reflected in the changing parameters of production function. At the same time, on the one hand, the ratio of structural elements determines the future value of the total productivity of the factors and, on the other hand, strongly influences the rate of economic growth and its mode of innovative dynamics. To put structural parameters of economic system into growth models with the possibility of assessment of such modes under conditions of interaction of new and old combinations is an essential step in the development of the theory of economic growth/development. It allows forming stimulation policy of economic growth proceeding from the structural ratios and relations recognized for this economic system. It is most convenient in such models to use logistic functions demonstrating the resource change for old and new combination within the economic system. The result of economy development depends on starting conditions, and on institutional parameters of velocity change of resource borrowing in favour of a new combination and creation of its own resource. Model registration of the resource is carried out through the idea of investments into new and old combinations.

  18. JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-06-13

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the local (usually state) level. First developed by NREL's researchers to model wind energy jobs and impacts, JEDI has been expanded to also estimate the economic impacts of biofuels, coal, conventional hydro, concentrating solar power, geothermal, marine and hydrokinetic power, natural gas, photovoltaics, and transmission lines. This fact sheet focuses on JEDI for wind energy projects and is revised with 2017 figures.

  19. The modelling of economic consequences in COSYMA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faude, D.

    1991-01-01

    A new model for assessing the economic consequences of accidents, called COCO-1 (Cost of Consequences Off-site) has been developed jointly by NRPB and KfK under the CEC MARIA programme. This paper describes the way in which this model, together with other options, has been implemented in the ECONOMICS module of COSYMA. For consistency with the other parts of COSYMA, the coding of the ECONOMICS module is flexible: in several areas, alternative calculational methods are available and the user may select the method by which a particular cost is calculated. To some extent, economic models other than the COCO-1 model may be applied. There are two types of input data in the ECONOMICS module. These are (1) data from preceding COSYMA modules which quantify the magnitude and distribution of health effects and the impact of countermeasures, and (2) economic data, in terms of costs per unit quantity, to convert the preceding data into monetary values. The structure of the module has been determined by the form and availability of the input data, and the general structure of COSYMA. Details of the method of calculation, and the necessary input data, are discussed, for calculation of the economic consequences of the countermeasures considered in COSYMA (evacuation, relocation, sheltering, decontamination and food bans) and for early and late health effects

  20. A multidisciplinary-economic framework of analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piet Keizer

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Human motivation offers energy, and circumstances offer possibilities. Only in combination, human motivation and circumstance yield action. Over time, desires and opportunities, to satisfy them closely, interact with one another. Orthodox economics analyzes economic motivation in interaction with scarce natural resources. It assumes that perfect rationality and non-sociality create a so-called economic world and analyzes the economic mechanism of allocation of scarce resources. Neoclassical economists use this world as a theoretical foundation for their empirical research. Heterodox economics rejects this strategy of isolating one motivation, a strategy that ignores the psychic and the social problem. However, the heterodox idea of human motivation, being variable and endogenous, is badly analyzed. This leads the author to construct a psychic and a social world that is completely comparable with the agent-structure model of the economic world. The three isolated worlds are integrated by analyzing the interactions between the three worlds. In the integrated world, the economic structure, the psychic structure and the social structure are one another’s foundations. This human world gives familiar economic concepts such as utility, efficiency, rationality, price, value, cost and benefit, a different meaning. Similarly, psychic concepts such as Self, willpower and personality and social concepts such as status, power, culture and morality, are given different meanings. To make the model more realistic, it should be made dynamic and historical and be placed in the context of the world as an open system.

  1. Economic Models as Devices of Policy Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Lasse Folke

    2013-01-01

    Can the emergence of a new policy model be a catalyst for a paradigm shift in the overall interpretative framework of how economic policy is conducted within a society? This paper claims that models are understudied as devices used by actors to induce policy change. This paper explores the role...... of models in Danish economic policy, where, from the 1970s onwards, executive public servants in this area have exclusively been specialists in model design. To understand changes in economic policy, this paper starts with a discussion of whether the notion of paradigm shift is adequate. It then examines...... the extent to which the performativity approach can help identify macroscopic changes in policy from seemingly microscopic changes in policy models. The concept of performativity is explored as a means of thinking about the constitution of agency directed at policy change. The paper brings this concept...

  2. Economic model of pipeline transportation systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banks, W. F.

    1977-07-29

    The objective of the work reported here was to develop a model which could be used to assess the economic effects of energy-conservative technological innovations upon the pipeline industry. The model is a dynamic simulator which accepts inputs of two classes: the physical description (design parameters, fluid properties, and financial structures) of the system to be studied, and the postulated market (throughput and price) projection. The model consists of time-independent submodels: the fluidics model which simulates the physical behavior of the system, and the financial model which operates upon the output of the fluidics model to calculate the economics outputs. Any of a number of existing fluidics models can be used in addition to that developed as a part of this study. The financial model, known as the Systems, Science and Software (S/sup 3/) Financial Projection Model, contains user options whereby pipeline-peculiar characteristics can be removed and/or modified, so that the model can be applied to virtually any kind of business enterprise. The several dozen outputs are of two classes: the energetics and the economics. The energetics outputs of primary interest are the energy intensity, also called unit energy consumption, and the total energy consumed. The primary economics outputs are the long-run average cost, profit, cash flow, and return on investment.

  3. Economic Analysis of Cyber Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-07-01

    calculate the estimates are proprietary; therefore, no one outside the company can evaluate the assumptions and methodologies. Furthermore, Mi2g has a...and Miller proposed using a more mathematical approach. The theories they proposed were based on the assumption that markets operate efficiently, so...Other researchers (Ross, 1978; Ryan, 1982) modified this basic idea and created the capital asset pricing model ( CAPM ), in which investments are made

  4. Model for the techno-economic analysis of common work of wind power and CCGT power plant to offer constant level of power in the electricity market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomsic, Z.; Rajsl, I.; Filipovic, M.

    2017-11-01

    Wind power varies over time, mainly under the influence of meteorological fluctuations. The variations occur on all time scales. Understanding these variations and their predictability is of key importance for the integration and optimal utilization of wind in the power system. There are two major attributes of variable generation that notably impact the participation on power exchanges: Variability (the output of variable generation changes and resulting in fluctuations in the plant output on all time scales) and Uncertainty (the magnitude and timing of variable generation output is less predictable, wind power output has low levels of predictability). Because of these variability and uncertainty wind plants cannot participate to electricity market, especially to power exchanges. For this purpose, the paper presents techno-economic analysis of work of wind plants together with combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plant as support for offering continues power to electricity market. A model of wind farms and CCGT plant was developed in program PLEXOS based on real hourly input data and all characteristics of CCGT with especial analysis of techno-economic characteristics of different types of starts and stops of the plant. The Model analyzes the followings: costs of different start-stop characteristics (hot, warm, cold start-ups and shutdowns) and part load performance of CCGT. Besides the costs, the technical restrictions were considered such as start-up time depending on outage duration, minimum operation time, and minimum load or peaking capability. For calculation purposes, the following parameters are necessary to know in order to be able to economically evaluate changes in the start-up process: ramp up and down rate, time of start time reduction, fuel mass flow during start, electricity production during start, variable cost of start-up process, cost and charges for life time consumption for each start and start type, remuneration during start up time regarding

  5. Economic modeling for life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, M.A.; Harrison, D.L.; Carlson, D.D.

    1986-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives

  6. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. Item Analysis in Introductory Economics Testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinari, Frank D.

    1979-01-01

    Computerized analysis of multiple choice test items is explained. Examples of item analysis applications in the introductory economics course are discussed with respect to three objectives: to evaluate learning; to improve test items; and to help improve classroom instruction. Problems, costs and benefits of the procedures are identified. (JMD)

  8. Thermodynamics, thermoeconomic and economic analysis of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The thermoeconomic analysis proposes the distribution of costs based on thermodynamic concepts, enabling the evaluation of reflection of the investment costs and fuel in the cost of products (steam and electricity). The economic analysis acts as a deciding factor for acceptance or project rejection. Keywords: Cogeneration ...

  9. Advanced Small Modular Reactor Economics Model Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harrison, Thomas J [ORNL

    2014-10-01

    The US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy’s Advanced Small Modular Reactor (SMR) research and development activities focus on four key areas: Developing assessment methods for evaluating advanced SMR technologies and characteristics; and Developing and testing of materials, fuels and fabrication techniques; and Resolving key regulatory issues identified by US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and industry; and Developing advanced instrumentation and controls and human-machine interfaces. This report focuses on development of assessment methods to evaluate advanced SMR technologies and characteristics. Specifically, this report describes the expansion and application of the economic modeling effort at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Analysis of the current modeling methods shows that one of the primary concerns for the modeling effort is the handling of uncertainty in cost estimates. Monte Carlo–based methods are commonly used to handle uncertainty, especially when implemented by a stand-alone script within a program such as Python or MATLAB. However, a script-based model requires each potential user to have access to a compiler and an executable capable of handling the script. Making the model accessible to multiple independent analysts is best accomplished by implementing the model in a common computing tool such as Microsoft Excel. Excel is readily available and accessible to most system analysts, but it is not designed for straightforward implementation of a Monte Carlo–based method. Using a Monte Carlo algorithm requires in-spreadsheet scripting and statistical analyses or the use of add-ons such as Crystal Ball. An alternative method uses propagation of error calculations in the existing Excel-based system to estimate system cost uncertainty. This method has the advantage of using Microsoft Excel as is, but it requires the use of simplifying assumptions. These assumptions do not necessarily bring into question the analytical results. In fact, the

  10. A bio-economic analysis of a shell fishery: The effects of recruitment and habitat in a meta population model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Imeson, R.J.; van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a bioeconomic model where fishing effort exerted has multiple impacts on the recruitment process of a sedentary shellfish population. Recognizing that sedentary populations generally possess metapopulation characteristics at the recruitment stage, we show that fishing effort

  11. Socio-economic development and emotion-health connection revisited: a multilevel modeling analysis using data from 162 counties in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Zonghuo; Wang, Fei

    2016-03-12

    Substantial research has shown that emotions play a critical role in physical health. However, most of these studies were conducted in industrialized countries, and it is still an open question whether the emotion-health connection is a "first-world problem". In the current study, we examined socio-economic development's influence on emotion-health connection by performing multilevel-modeling analysis in a dataset of 33,600 individuals from 162 counties in China. Results showed that both positive emotions and negative emotions predicted level of physical health and regional Gross Domestic Product Per Capita (GDPPC) had some impact on the association between emotion and health through accessibility of medical resources and educational status. But these impacts were suppressed, and the total effects of GDPPC on emotion-health connections were not significant. These results support the universality of emotion-health connection across levels of GDPPC and provide new insight into how socio-economic development might affect these connections.

  12. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Ki Dong; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Kim, H. S

    2000-12-01

    This study identified the role of nuclear energy in the following three major aspects. First of all, this study carried out cost effectiveness of nuclear as a CDM technology, which is one of means of GHG emission reduction in UNFCCC. Secondly, environmental externalities caused by air pollutants emitted by power options were estimated. The 'observed market behaviour' method and 'responses to hypothetical market' method were used to estimate objectively the environmental external costs by electric source, respectively. Finally, the role of nuclear power in securing electricity supply in a liberalized electricity market was analyzed. This study made efforts to investigate whether nuclear power generation with high investment cost could be favored in a liberalized market by using 'option value' analysis of investments.

  13. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Ki Dong; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Kim, H. S.

    2000-12-01

    This study identified the role of nuclear energy in the following three major aspects. First of all, this study carried out cost effectiveness of nuclear as a CDM technology, which is one of means of GHG emission reduction in UNFCCC. Secondly, environmental externalities caused by air pollutants emitted by power options were estimated. The 'observed market behaviour' method and 'responses to hypothetical market' method were used to estimate objectively the environmental external costs by electric source, respectively. Finally, the role of nuclear power in securing electricity supply in a liberalized electricity market was analyzed. This study made efforts to investigate whether nuclear power generation with high investment cost could be favored in a liberalized market by using 'option value' analysis of investments

  14. The methodology of energy policy-making in economical models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poursina, B.

    1998-08-01

    Scrutiny and careful study in energy is a subject that in human science has been investigated from different point of view. The expansion of this research, because of its importance and effect in different dimensions of human life, has also arrived in the field of political and economic sciences. Economics evaluates the energy phenomenon at the side of elements such as labor, capital and technology in the production functions of firms. The nature of these discussions is mainly from the viewpoint of micro analyses. Nevertheless, the variation and challenges concerning energy and environment during the recent decades and the economists` detailed investigations in its analysis and evaluation have led to the arrival of energy discussions in a special shape in macro planning and large economic models. The paper compares various energy models - EFDM, MEDEE, MIDAS and HERMES. This extent of planning and consequently modelling which lacks a background in the processes of economic researches, deals with analysis of energy and economics reacting effects. Modelling of energy-economy interaction and energy policy in modeling macroeconomics large models are new ideas in energy studies and economics. 7 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab.

  15. Data Driven Economic Model Predictive Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masoud Kheradmandi

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This manuscript addresses the problem of data driven model based economic model predictive control (MPC design. To this end, first, a data-driven Lyapunov-based MPC is designed, and shown to be capable of stabilizing a system at an unstable equilibrium point. The data driven Lyapunov-based MPC utilizes a linear time invariant (LTI model cognizant of the fact that the training data, owing to the unstable nature of the equilibrium point, has to be obtained from closed-loop operation or experiments. Simulation results are first presented demonstrating closed-loop stability under the proposed data-driven Lyapunov-based MPC. The underlying data-driven model is then utilized as the basis to design an economic MPC. The economic improvements yielded by the proposed method are illustrated through simulations on a nonlinear chemical process system example.

  16. Economic impacts of climate change in Australia: framework and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ford, Melanie

    2007-01-01

    Full text: There is growing interest in understanding the potential impacts of climate change in Australia, and especially the economic impacts of 'inaction'. In this study, a preliminary analysis of the possible economic impacts of future climate change in Australia is undertaken using ABARE's general equilibrium model of the global economy, GTEM. In order to understand the potential economy-wide economic impacts, the broad climatic trends that Australia is likely to experience over the next several decades are canvassed and the potential economic and non-economic impacts on key risk areas, such as water resources, agriculture and forests, health, industry and human settlements and the ecosystems, are identified. A more detailed analysis of the economic impacts of climate change are undertaken by developing two case studies. In the first case study, the economic impact of climate change and reduced water availability on the agricultural sector is assessed in the Murray-Darling Basin. In the second case study, the sectoral economic impacts on the Australian resources sector of a projected decline in global economic activity due to climate change is analysed. The key areas of required development to more fully understand the economy-wide and sectoral impacts of climate change are also discussed including issues associated with estimating both non-market and market impacts. Finally, an analytical framework for undertaking integrated assessment of climate change impacts domestically and globally is developed

  17. INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR MODELING ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boldeanu Dana Maria

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of the most important financial and economic indicators at the level of some organizations from the same sector of activity, the selection of performance ratios and generating a particular analysis model help companies to move from the desire

  18. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis in health economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baio, Gianluca; Dawid, A Philip

    2015-12-01

    Health economic evaluations have recently become an important part of the clinical and medical research process and have built upon more advanced statistical decision-theoretic foundations. In some contexts, it is officially required that uncertainty about both parameters and observable variables be properly taken into account, increasingly often by means of Bayesian methods. Among these, probabilistic sensitivity analysis has assumed a predominant role. The objective of this article is to review the problem of health economic assessment from the standpoint of Bayesian statistical decision theory with particular attention to the philosophy underlying the procedures for sensitivity analysis. © The Author(s) 2011.

  19. Spatial Economics Model Predicting Transport Volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Zhuanghe as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Zhuanghe and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.

  20. Economic Model For a Return on Investment Analysis of United States Government High Performance Computing (HPC) Research and Development (R & D) Investment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joseph, Earl C. [IDC Research Inc., Framingham, MA (United States); Conway, Steve [IDC Research Inc., Framingham, MA (United States); Dekate, Chirag [IDC Research Inc., Framingham, MA (United States)

    2013-09-30

    This study investigated how high-performance computing (HPC) investments can improve economic success and increase scientific innovation. This research focused on the common good and provided uses for DOE, other government agencies, industry, and academia. The study created two unique economic models and an innovation index: 1 A macroeconomic model that depicts the way HPC investments result in economic advancements in the form of ROI in revenue (GDP), profits (and cost savings), and jobs. 2 A macroeconomic model that depicts the way HPC investments result in basic and applied innovations, looking at variations by sector, industry, country, and organization size. A new innovation index that provides a means of measuring and comparing innovation levels. Key findings of the pilot study include: IDC collected the required data across a broad set of organizations, with enough detail to create these models and the innovation index. The research also developed an expansive list of HPC success stories.

  1. Logistic map with memory from economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tarasova, Valentina V.; Tarasov, Vasily E.

    2017-01-01

    A generalization of the economic model of logistic growth, which takes into account the effects of memory and crises, is suggested. Memory effect means that the economic factors and parameters at any given time depend not only on their values at that time, but also on their values at previous times. For the mathematical description of the memory effects, we use the theory of derivatives of non-integer order. Crises are considered as sharp splashes (bursts) of the price, which are mathematically described by the delta-functions. Using the equivalence of fractional differential equations and the Volterra integral equations, we obtain discrete maps with memory that are exact discrete analogs of fractional differential equations of economic processes. We derive logistic map with memory, its generalizations, and “economic” discrete maps with memory from the fractional differential equations, which describe the economic natural growth with competition, power-law memory and crises.

  2. A critical analysis towards research perspectives: Reply to comments on "Modeling human behavior in economics and social science".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolfin, M; Leonida, L; Outada, N

    2017-12-01

    We take advantage of the challenging comments to the modeling approach we proposed in [35] to look ahead at a number of applications of the methods to the alternative questions these comments raise. In turn, our effort results in a number of interesting and valuable research perspectives. The presentation goes along three main lines. In the first line, we summarize briefly the aims and results in [35]. In the second section we give a technical the issues raised and, finally, the focus moves to the above mentioned research perspectives. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Agent-based modeling in ecological economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckbert, Scott; Baynes, Tim; Reeson, Andrew

    2010-01-01

    Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and models can be used to explore feedbacks and adaptations inherent in these systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) represents autonomous entities, each with dynamic behavior and heterogeneous characteristics. Agents interact with each other and their environment, resulting in emergent outcomes at the macroscale that can be used to quantitatively analyze complex systems. ABM is contributing to research questions in ecological economics in the areas of natural resource management and land-use change, urban systems modeling, market dynamics, changes in consumer attitudes, innovation, and diffusion of technology and management practices, commons dilemmas and self-governance, and psychological aspects to human decision making and behavior change. Frontiers for ABM research in ecological economics involve advancing the empirical calibration and validation of models through mixed methods, including surveys, interviews, participatory modeling, and, notably, experimental economics to test specific decision-making hypotheses. Linking ABM with other modeling techniques at the level of emergent properties will further advance efforts to understand dynamics of social-environmental systems.

  4. Value function in economic growth model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagno, Alexander; Tarasyev, Alexandr A.; Tarasyev, Alexander M.

    2017-11-01

    Properties of the value function are examined in an infinite horizon optimal control problem with an unlimited integrand index appearing in the quality functional with a discount factor. Optimal control problems of such type describe solutions in models of economic growth. Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived to ensure that the value function satisfies the infinitesimal stability properties. It is proved that value function coincides with the minimax solution of the Hamilton-Jacobi equation. Description of the growth asymptotic behavior for the value function is provided for the logarithmic, power and exponential quality functionals and an example is given to illustrate construction of the value function in economic growth models.

  5. The substitution of mineral fertilizers by compost from household waste in Cameroon: economic analysis with a partial equilibrium model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaza Folefack, Achille Jean

    2009-05-01

    This paper analyses the possibility of substitution between compost and mineral fertilizer in order to assess the impact on the foreign exchange savings in Cameroon of increasing the use of compost. In this regard, a partial equilibrium model was built up and used as a tool for policy simulations. The review of existing literature already suggests that, the compost commercial value i.e. value of substitution (33,740 FCFA tonne(-1)) is higher compared to the compost real price (30,000 FCFA tonne(-1)), proving that it could be profitable to substitute the mineral fertilizer by compost. Further results from the scenarios used in the modelling exercise show that, increasing the compost availability is the most favourable policy for the substitution of mineral fertilizer by compost. This policy helps to save about 18.55% of the annual imported mineral fertilizer quantity and thus to avoid approximately 8.47% of the yearly total import expenditure in Cameroon. The policy of decreasing the transport rate of compost in regions that are far from the city is also favourable to the substitution. Therefore, in order to encourage the substitution of mineral fertilizer by compost, programmes of popularization of compost should be highlighted and be among the top priorities in the agricultural policy of the Cameroon government.

  6. Battery sizing for serial plug-in hybrid electric vehicles: A model-based economic analysis for Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ernst, Christian-Simon; Hackbarth, Andre; Madlener, Reinhard; Lunz, Benedikt; Uwe Sauer, Dirk; Eckstein, Lutz

    2011-01-01

    The battery size of a Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) is decisive for the electrical range of the vehicle and crucial for the cost-effectiveness of this particular vehicle concept. Based on the energy consumption of a conventional reference car and a PHEV, we introduce a comprehensive total cost of ownership model for the average car user in Germany for both vehicle types. The model takes into account the purchase price, fixed annual costs and variable operating costs. The amortization time of a PHEV also depends on the recharging strategy (once a day, once a night, after each trip), the battery size, and the battery costs. We find that PHEVs with a 4 kWh battery and at current lithium-ion battery prices reach the break-even point after about 6 years (5 years when using the lower night-time electricity tariffs). With higher battery capacities the amortization time becomes significantly longer. Even for the small battery size and assuming the EU-15 electricity mix, a PHEV is found to emit only around 60% of the CO 2 emissions of a comparable conventional car. Thus, with the PHEV concept a cost-effective introduction of electric mobility and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions per vehicle can be reached. - Highlights: → Total cost of ownership of a PHEV and a conventional car are compared for the average German car user.→ PHEVs with a 4 kWh battery reach the break-even after 5-6 years at current Li-Ion battery prices.→ Even with a small battery, PHEVs emit about 40% less CO 2 emissions than the average conventional car.

  7. Economic analysis of basiliximab in renal transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keown, P A; Balshaw, R; Krueger, H; Baladi, J F

    2001-06-15

    Basiliximab is a chimeric monoclonal directed against the alpha-chain of the interleukin-2 receptor. International studies have shown that it is highly effective in preventing acute rejection in patients receiving Neoral, and causes no measurable incremental toxicity, but its economic value remains unknown. This study employed an economic model to examine the potential economic benefit of basiliximab. Parameter estimates were derived from a randomized, prospective, double-blind study conducted in 21 renal transplant centers in seven countries in which 380 adult primary allograft recipients were randomized within center to receive basiliximab (20 mg i.v.) on days 0 and 4 or placebo in addition to dual immunosuppression with Neoral and steroids. Key clinical events included primary hospitalization, immunosuppressive drug use, patient and graft survival, graft rejection, treatment of rejection, dialysis, and repeat hospitalization. Health resources were valued via a comprehensive electronic cost dictionary, based upon a detailed economic evaluation of renal transplantation in Canada. Medication costs were calculated from hospital pharmacy acquisition costs; basiliximab was assessed a zero cost. The average estimated cost per patient for the first year after transplant was $55,393 (Canadian dollars) for placebo and $50,839 for basiliximab, rising to $141,690 and $130,592, respectively, after 5 years. A principal component of the cost in both groups was accrued during the initial transplant hospitalization ($14,663 for standard therapy and $14,099 for basiliximab). An additional $15,852 and $14,130 was attributable to continued care, graft loss, and dialysis in the two groups, whereas follow-up hospitalization consumed an additional $15,538 for placebo and $13,916 for basiliximab. The mean incremental cost of dialysis was $5,397 for placebo compared with $3,821 for basiliximab, whereas incremental costs of graft loss were $2,548 compared with $2,295 in the two treatment

  8. ECONOMIC MODELING STOCKS CONTROL SYSTEM: SIMULATION MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Климак, М.С.; Войтко, С.В.

    2016-01-01

    Considered theoretical and applied aspects of the development of simulation models to predictthe optimal development and production systems that create tangible products andservices. It isproved that theprocessof inventory control needs of economicandmathematical modeling in viewof thecomplexity of theoretical studies. A simulation model of stocks control that allows make managementdecisions with production logistics

  9. Economic Analysis of Horticultural Enterprises in Yenagoa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study was on Economic analysis of horticultural enterprises in Yenagoa metropolis of Bayelsa State, Nigeria. A total of 8 horticultural enterprises were chosen through a pilot survey to form the sample size. Results show that horticultural farming is an activity for both males and females. A greater number of the ...

  10. Comparative Economic Analysis of Beekeeping Using Traditional ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study was carried out in Tabora and Katavi regions in the miombo woodlands of Tanzania. The overall objective of the study was to undertake a comparative economic analysis of beekeeping using improved or traditional beehives. Data were collected from 198 beekeepers that were randomly selected from a sampling ...

  11. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available

  12. The Economic Analysis of University Participation Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fallis, George

    2015-01-01

    Over the postwar period in most developed countries, the university participation rate has risen steadily to well over 30 percent, although there remain differences between countries. Students from lower income families have lower participation rates than those from higher income families. The article provides an economic analysis of these…

  13. Analysis Of Economic Motivation When Individuals Choose An Educational Path

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktor Anatolyevich Koksharov

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The authors consider the economic motivations when individuals choose an educational path. This line of research is relevant from both, the point of view of science — research of economic behavior of an individual, and the point of view of practice — allows to increase efficiency of investments in a human capital. The authors have developed the economic and mathematical model of choice of optimum educational paths by individuals. The model is realized in the software and approved on real data on more than 5,5 thousand students. For the analysis of the importance of rational economic expectations when an educational path has to be chosen, the paths chosen by students is compared and the educational paths optimum from the point of view of economic rationality are calculated. The analysis of the results has showed that mainly, the choice of educational paths happens according to the economic motivations. On the considered selection, 66 % of prospective students have chosen an optimum path from the point of view of economic preferences. The most significant factor providing development of optimum educational paths is an expectation of higher income upon completion of education — 22 % of all educational paths, and a possibility of cost-cutting of educating or state-subsidized education — 12 %. In our opinion, one of the most important practical results of the research of optimum educational path is the need to consider expectations of students and prospective student when developing a state policy of investment in human capital.

  14. An economic analysis of communal goat production

    OpenAIRE

    P.J. Sebei; C.M.E. McCrindle; E.C. Webb

    2004-01-01

    The economic impact of different extension messages used was calculated using enterprise budgeting (gross margin analysis). Input data were gleaned from the literature, from participatory appraisals, as well as a field study, spanning 12 months, of small-scalecommunal goat farming systems in Jericho in the Odi District of NorthWest Province. The number of offspring weaned per annum, as a proportion of does owned, was selected as the desired output for analysis. This study has shown that small...

  15. Modeling the economic consequences of LWR accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burke, R.P.; Aldrich, D.C.; Rasmussen, N.C.

    1984-01-01

    Models to be used for analyses of economic risks from events which may occur during LWR plant operation are developed in this study. The models include capabilities to estimate both onsite and offsite costs of LWR events ranging from routine plant outages to severe core-melt accidents resulting in large releases of radioactive material to the environment. The models can be used by both the nuclear power industry and regulatory agencies in cost-benefit analyses for decisionmaking purposes. The newly developed economic consequence models are applied in an example to estimate the economic risks from operation of the Surry Unit 2 plant. The analyses indicate that economic risks from US LWR operation, in contrast to public health risks, are dominated by relatively high-frequency forced outage events. Even for severe (e.g., core-melt) accidents, expected offsite costs are less than expected onsite costs for the Surry site. The implications of these conclusions for nuclear power plant operation and regulation are discussed

  16. Economic impact analysis of load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ranaweera, D.K.; Karady, G.G.; Farmer, R.G.

    1997-01-01

    Short term load forecasting is an essential function in electric power system operations and planning. Forecasts are needed for a variety of utility activities such as generation scheduling, scheduling of fuel purchases, maintenance scheduling and security analysis. Depending on power system characteristics, significant forecasting errors can lead to either excessively conservative scheduling or very marginal scheduling. Either can induce heavy economic penalties. This paper examines the economic impact of inaccurate load forecasts. Monte Carlo simulations were used to study the effect of different load forecasting accuracy. Investigations into the effect of improving the daily peak load forecasts, effect of different seasons of the year and effect of utilization factors are presented

  17. Economic analysis and management of climatic risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hourcade, J.C. (Centre International de Recherche sur l' Environnement et le Developpement, 92 - Montrouge (France))

    1994-01-01

    This paper aims at framing the collective decision problem in the face of climate change. It shows why it would be irrelevant to handle it in the form of a classical decision under uncertainty framework where a cost-benefit analysis is carried out including probability distribution on damages and risk aversion coefficients. A sequential approach to policy making is then proposed as an alternative in order to account for the inertia of socio-economic dynamics and the value of information. A simple model illustrates the gap between these two approaches; it shows the importance of combining the investments on climatic research, innovation policies and so-called 'no regret' short term decisions. It shows the fact that, even if they can be considered as quantitatively moderate, these potentials have a critical impact on long term viability of development; they embed a very high information value, lengthening the learning time vis-a-vis potentially major but controversial risks. (author). 21 refs., 3 figs.

  18. Arational heuristic model of economic decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Grandori, Anna

    2010-01-01

    The article discuss the limits of both the rational actor and the behavioral paradigms in explaining and guiding innovative decision making and outlines a model of economic decision making that in the course of being 'heuristic' (research and discovery oriented) is also 'rational' (in the broad sense of following correct reasoning and scientific methods, non 'biasing'). The model specifies a set of 'rational heuristics' for innovative decision making, for the various sub-processes of problem ...

  19. R.M. Solow Adjusted Model of Economic Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Gh. Rosca

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Besides the models of M. Keynes, R.F. Harrod, E. Domar, D. Romer, Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans etc., the R.M. Solow model is part of the category which characterizes the economic growth. The paper proposes the study of the R.M. Solow adjusted model of economic growth, while the adjustment consisting in the model adaptation to the Romanian economic characteristics. The article is the first one from a three paper series dedicated to the macroeconomic modelling theme, using the R.M. Solow model, such as: “Measurement of the economic growth and extensions of the R.M. Solow adjusted model” and “Evolution scenarios at the Romanian economy level using the R.M. Solow adjusted model”. The analysis part of the model is based on the study of the equilibrium to the continuous case with some interpretations of the discreet one, by using the state diagram. The optimization problem at the economic level is also used; it is built up of a specified number of representative consumers and firms in order to reveal the interaction between these elements.

  20. Economic Analysis of Improved Alkaline Water Electrolysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuckshinrichs, Wilhelm; Ketelaer, Thomas; Koj, Jan Christian

    2017-01-01

    Alkaline water electrolysis (AWE) is a mature hydrogen production technology and there exists a range of economic assessments for available technologies. For advanced AWEs, which may be based on novel polymer-based membrane concepts, it is of prime importance that development comes along with new configurations and technical and economic key process parameters for AWE that might be of interest for further economic assessments. This paper presents an advanced AWE technology referring to three different sites in Europe (Germany, Austria, and Spain). The focus is on financial metrics, the projection of key performance parameters of advanced AWEs, and further financial and tax parameters. For financial analysis from an investor’s (business) perspective, a comprehensive assessment of a technology not only comprises cost analysis but also further financial analysis quantifying attractiveness and supply/market flexibility. Therefore, based on cash flow (CF) analysis, a comprehensible set of metrics may comprise levelised cost of energy or, respectively, levelized cost of hydrogen (LCH) for cost assessment, net present value (NPV) for attractiveness analysis, and variable cost (VC) for analysis of market flexibility. The German AWE site turns out to perform best in all three financial metrics (LCH, NPV, and VC). Though there are slight differences in investment cost and operation and maintenance cost projections for the three sites, the major cost impact is due to the electricity cost. Although investment cost is slightly lower and labor cost is significantly lower in Spain, the difference can not outweigh the higher electricity cost compared to Germany. Given the assumption that the electrolysis operators are customers directly and actively participating in power markets, and based on the regulatory framework in the three countries, in this special case electricity cost in Germany is lowest. However, as electricity cost is profoundly influenced by political decisions as

  1. Economic Analysis of Improved Alkaline Water Electrolysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuckshinrichs, Wilhelm, E-mail: w.kuckshinrichs@fz-juelich.de; Ketelaer, Thomas; Koj, Jan Christian [Forschungszentrum Juelich, Institute for Energy and Climate Research – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (IEK-STE), Juelich (Germany)

    2017-02-20

    Alkaline water electrolysis (AWE) is a mature hydrogen production technology and there exists a range of economic assessments for available technologies. For advanced AWEs, which may be based on novel polymer-based membrane concepts, it is of prime importance that development comes along with new configurations and technical and economic key process parameters for AWE that might be of interest for further economic assessments. This paper presents an advanced AWE technology referring to three different sites in Europe (Germany, Austria, and Spain). The focus is on financial metrics, the projection of key performance parameters of advanced AWEs, and further financial and tax parameters. For financial analysis from an investor’s (business) perspective, a comprehensive assessment of a technology not only comprises cost analysis but also further financial analysis quantifying attractiveness and supply/market flexibility. Therefore, based on cash flow (CF) analysis, a comprehensible set of metrics may comprise levelised cost of energy or, respectively, levelized cost of hydrogen (LCH) for cost assessment, net present value (NPV) for attractiveness analysis, and variable cost (VC) for analysis of market flexibility. The German AWE site turns out to perform best in all three financial metrics (LCH, NPV, and VC). Though there are slight differences in investment cost and operation and maintenance cost projections for the three sites, the major cost impact is due to the electricity cost. Although investment cost is slightly lower and labor cost is significantly lower in Spain, the difference can not outweigh the higher electricity cost compared to Germany. Given the assumption that the electrolysis operators are customers directly and actively participating in power markets, and based on the regulatory framework in the three countries, in this special case electricity cost in Germany is lowest. However, as electricity cost is profoundly influenced by political decisions as

  2. Economic analysis of KNGR's conceptual design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roh, Myung-Sub; Chung, Kyung-Nam; Hong, Jang-Hee

    1997-01-01

    During the last two decades in Korea, with the rapid economic growth and industrialization, nuclear power has played an important role in electric power production. At present, Korea has 11 nuclear units in operation with total installed capacity of 9,916MWe and 7 units under construction with total capacity of 6,100MWe. An advanced reactor development program, called Korean Next Generation Reactor (KNGR), has been started for the coming 21st century. It aims to enhance safety features compared to existing plants and follow the target to maintain the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy with alternative energy sources. In order to meet these requirements, a number of technical and economical factors have been taken into the program. These factors include the economy of plant size, design simplification and optimization, and reduction of construction period. This paper addresses the preliminary economic analysis results for the KNGR design. It is indicated that KNGR has about 17% economic advantage compared to the current 1,000 MWe PWR. This paper also describes some of the experiences gained and important factors related to reducing the investment and operation costs. 5 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs

  3. Some Approaches to the Accounting and Analysis of the Impact of Scientific and Technological Progress in the Harrod-Domar Economic Growth Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dilenko Viktor O.

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents methods for the accounting of autonomous and induced scientific and technological progress in the Harrod-Domar model of economic dynamics that imply determining the incremental capital/output ratio of the model in the form of special functions of time. As part of the received version of the Harrod-Domar model, on the basis of conditional data there conducted a numerical study of some aspects of the impact of parameters of scientific and technological progress and the initial state of the economy being modeled on peculiarities of corresponding trajectories of its dynamics. A simple economic and mathematical problem of determining an optimal value of investments in the implementation of the induced STP is formulated, and content interpretation of the obtained solution is carried out. Possible directions of development of the obtained results may be associated with the application of the proposed modification of the Harrod-Domar model to build and analyze mathematical models of optimal economic growth in view of the induced STP, as well as with the prospective use of these results to improve dynamic models of the Leontief type in terms of considering innovation processes (scientific and technical progress of various kinds.

  4. Aspects of economic analysis in forestry enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.Yu. Chik

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The subject of economic analysis from the point of view of philosophical sciences and works of domestic and foreign scientists is researched. The analysis of costs and production costs as the most important components of the economic analysis of forestry enterprises are distinguished. The basic tasks of the economic analysis at the enterprises of forestry are determined. The main objects of the study of indicators of the cost price of forestry products are singled out. The calculation of general indicators of expenditures at the State Enterprise «Zolochiv Forestry» is carried out and the corresponding general conclusions are made. The influence of factors on the change in the cost price of harvesting of forestry products in terms of expenditure items at the State Enterprise «Zolochiv Forestry» is calculated and the corresponding general conclusions are indicated. The main sources of reserves for reducing the costs of forestry products at the State Enterprise «Zolochiv Forestry» are proposed.

  5. Techno-Economic, Sustainability, and Market Analysis | Bioenergy | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Techno-Economic, Sustainability, and Market Analysis Techno-Economic, Sustainability, and Market Analysis NREL conducts techno-economic analyses (TEAs) for algal biofuels, thermochemical conversion, and agitating the liquid as it flows around. Algal Biofuels Techno-Economic Analysis NREL's Algae Techno

  6. R.M. Solow Adjusted Model of Economic Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Gh. Rosca

    2007-05-01

    The analysis part of the model is based on the study of the equilibrium to the continuous case with some interpretations of the discreet one, by using the state diagram. The optimization problem at the economic level is also used; it is built up of a specified number of representative consumers and firms in order to reveal the interaction between these elements.

  7. An economic analysis of communal goat production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebel, P J; McCrindle, C M E; Webb, E C

    2004-03-01

    The economic impact of different extension messages used was calculated using enterprise budgeting (gross margin analysis). Input data were gleaned from the literature, from participatory appraisals, as well as a field study, spanning 12 months, of small-scale communal goat farming systems in Jericho in the Odi District of North West Province. The number of offspring weaned per annum, as a proportion of does owned, was selected as the desired output for analysis. This study has shown that small-scale communal goat farmers are not adopting or implementing extension messages to improve production capacity. In South Africa the majority of goats are slaughtered in the informal sector. If the informal sector is to be persuaded to market goats commercially through formal channels, then knowledge of the economics of goat farming on communal lands should be provided. The economic aspects of extension messages are probably an important factor in determining acceptance and sustainability yet appear to be seldom investigated. The probable reason for lack of adoption of standard extension messages, which promote improved nutrition, parasite control, vaccination and treatment of goats, was economic. In other words, the so-called 'poor management practices' used by communal farmers appeared to be economically more profitable than the 'good management practices' suggested to increase production. The price of communal goats was not related to their mass. A higher level of inputs would probably have resulted in a heavier kid, however it was established that this would not have influenced the price received as a majority of the goats were slaughtered for ritual purposes where age, colour and sex were more important to the purchaser than body mass. It is standard practice in commercial farming systems to evaluate the economic benefits of all management practices before they are implemented. Production animal veterinarians use veterinary economics to compare different scenarios to

  8. An economic analysis of communal goat production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.J. Sebei

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available The economic impact of different extension messages used was calculated using enterprise budgeting (gross margin analysis. Input data were gleaned from the literature, from participatory appraisals, as well as a field study, spanning 12 months, of small-scalecommunal goat farming systems in Jericho in the Odi District of NorthWest Province. The number of offspring weaned per annum, as a proportion of does owned, was selected as the desired output for analysis. This study has shown that small-scale communal goat farmers are not adopting or implementing extension messages to improve production capacity. In south Africa the majority of goats are slaughtered in the informal sector. If the informal sector is to be persuaded to market goats commercially through formal channels, then knowledge of the economics of goat farming on communal lands should be provided. The economic aspects of extension messages are probably an important factor in determining acceptance and sustainability yet appear to be seldom investigated. The probable reason for lack of adoption of standard extension messages, which promote improved nutrition, parasite control, vaccination and treatment of goats, was economic. In other words, the so-called 'poor management practices' used by communal farmers appeared to be economically more profitable than the 'good management practices' suggested to increase production. The price of communal goats was not related to their mass. A higher level of inputs would probably have resulted in a heavier kid, however it was established that this would not have influenced the price received as a majority of the goats were slaughtered for ritual purposes where age, colour and sex were more important to the purchaser than body mass. It is standard practice in commercial farming systems to evaluate the economic benefits of all management practices before they are implemented. Production animal veterinarians use veterinary economics to compare different

  9. A Study on the Economic Analysis for Overseas Project of New Nuclear Power Plant Using Binomial Option Pricing Model and Monte Carlo Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Beong Gwon; Roh, Myung Sub [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    Real options approach is suitable for evaluation of large-scale investment project with great uncertainties. Takizawa and Omori (2001) introduced a real option approach to calculate electricity price for economic feasibility. Rothwell (2006) modeled the net present value (NPV) of building an ABWR in Texas using ROA to determine the risk premium associated with net revenue uncertainty. W.C Yoon (2006) evaluated nuclear power plant construction value using DCF and ROA with sensitivity analysis. The value evaluations involved with nuclear power are very uncertain. This is because of a long period of construction as well as the cost uncertainties of decommissioning and nuclear waste management. Even more elements should be considered in new nuclear power valuation, including the uncertainty from the technology, operating costs, the potential risk of radiation, electricity mechanism and climate policy. In this respect, a traditional method such as discounted cash flow (DCF) can't fully catch the impacts of these uncertainties on nuclear power investment. So it is necessary to develop a proper method to handle such kinds of uncertainties to evaluate the new deployment of nuclear power plants. Meanwhile, overseas construction projects which are required capital investment, localization by target countries are increasing in these days. These elements may influence the uncertainty of project too.

  10. Health economic analysis of human papillomavirus vaccines in women of Chile: perspective of the health care payer using a Markov model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, Jorge Alberto; Lepetic, Alejandro; Demarteau, Nadia

    2014-11-26

    In Chile, significant reductions in cervical cancer incidence and mortality have been observed due to implementation of a well-organized screening program. However, it has been suggested that the inclusion of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination for young adolescent women may be the best prospect to further reduce the burden of cervical cancer. This cost-effectiveness study comparing two available HPV vaccines in Chile was performed to support decision making on the implementation of universal HPV vaccination. The present analysis used an existing static Markov model to assess the effect of screening and vaccination. This analysis includes the epidemiology of low-risk HPV types allowing for the comparison between the two vaccines (HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine and the HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine), latest cross-protection data on HPV vaccines, treatment costs for cervical cancer, vaccine costs and 6% discounting per the health economic guideline for Chile. Projected incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICERs) for the HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine was 116 United States (US) dollars per quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained or 147 US dollars per life-years (LY) saved, while the projected ICUR/ICER for the HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine was 541 US dollars per QALY gained or 726 US dollars per LY saved. Introduction of any HPV vaccine to the present cervical cancer prevention program of Chile is estimated to be highly cost-effective (below 1X gross domestic product [GDP] per capita, 14278 US dollars). In Chile, the addition of HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine to the existing screening program dominated the addition of HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis results show that the HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine is expected to be dominant and cost-saving in 69.3% and 77.6% of the replicates respectively. The findings indicate that the addition of any HPV vaccine to the current cervical screening

  11. Economic conditions, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease: analysis of the Icelandic economic collapse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birgisdóttir, Kristín Helga; Jónsson, Stefán Hrafn; Ásgeirsdóttir, Tinna Laufey

    2017-12-01

    Previous research has found a positive short-term relationship between the 2008 collapse and hypertension in Icelandic males. With Iceland's economy experiencing a phase of economic recovery, an opportunity to pursue a longer-term analysis of the collapse has emerged. Using data from a nationally representative sample, fixed-effect estimations and mediation analyses were performed to explore the relationship between the Icelandic economic collapse in 2008 and the longer-term impact on hypertension and cardiovascular health. A sensitivity analysis was carried out with pooled logit models estimated as well as an alternative dependent variable. Our attrition analysis revealed that results for cardiovascular diseases were affected by attrition, but not results from estimations on the relationship between the economic crisis and hypertension. When compared to the boom year 2007, our results point to an increased probability of Icelandic women having hypertension in the year 2012, when the Icelandic economy had recovered substantially from the economic collapse in 2008. This represents a deviation from pre-crisis trends, thus suggesting a true economic-recovery impact on hypertension.

  12. North Korea: Economic Leverage and Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-22

    although non- governmental groups do run operations in the DPRK in activities such as goat dairy farming and transportation. North -South Korean...Finance Minister Says “At Least” 34m US Dollars Sent to North Korea. Financial Times Information, Global News Wire—Asia Africa Intelligence Wire. June 6...CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress North Korea: Economic Leverage and Policy Analysis Dick K

  13. Coupling Climate Models and Forward-Looking Economic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Judd, K.; Brock, W. A.

    2010-12-01

    Authors: Dr. Kenneth L. Judd, Hoover Institution, and Prof. William A. Brock, University of Wisconsin Current climate models range from General Circulation Models (GCM’s) with millions of degrees of freedom to models with few degrees of freedom. Simple Energy Balance Climate Models (EBCM’s) help us understand the dynamics of GCM’s. The same is true in economics with Computable General Equilibrium Models (CGE’s) where some models are infinite-dimensional multidimensional differential equations but some are simple models. Nordhaus (2007, 2010) couples a simple EBCM with a simple economic model. One- and two- dimensional ECBM’s do better at approximating damages across the globe and positive and negative feedbacks from anthroprogenic forcing (North etal. (1981), Wu and North (2007)). A proper coupling of climate and economic systems is crucial for arriving at effective policies. Brock and Xepapadeas (2010) have used Fourier/Legendre based expansions to study the shape of socially optimal carbon taxes over time at the planetary level in the face of damages caused by polar ice cap melt (as discussed by Oppenheimer, 2005) but in only a “one dimensional” EBCM. Economists have used orthogonal polynomial expansions to solve dynamic, forward-looking economic models (Judd, 1992, 1998). This presentation will couple EBCM climate models with basic forward-looking economic models, and examine the effectiveness and scaling properties of alternative solution methods. We will use a two dimensional EBCM model on the sphere (Wu and North, 2007) and a multicountry, multisector regional model of the economic system. Our aim will be to gain insights into intertemporal shape of the optimal carbon tax schedule, and its impact on global food production, as modeled by Golub and Hertel (2009). We will initially have limited computing resources and will need to focus on highly aggregated models. However, this will be more complex than existing models with forward

  14. Integrated application of river water quality modelling and cost-benefit analysis to optimize the environmental economical value based on various aquatic waste load reduction strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chen-Yu; Fan, Chihhao

    2017-04-01

    improvements in BOD, SS and NH3-N were estimated as 36.2%, 27.7% and 29.2%, respectively. The net present value (i.e., economical-based environmental impact) becomes positive in the sixtieth year following the original government planning. We designed two scenarios for further comparison: (i) treatment efficiency improvement of pollution control facilities, and (ii) biogas-based power generation using livestock manure. If government budget is not a limiting factor, improving the efficiency of sewage treatment plants can make the occurrence of balance between payments and revenues (i.e., net present value in this study) three years earlier. For the biogas-based power generation scenario, if all pig farms with livestock number >2000 install the on-site power generation equipment, BOD will further improve by 9% and the time span of payback period will be shortened by 1 year. If all the manure waste from pig-farms is collected for subsequent electricity generation, the BOD river pollution index is estimated to improve to lightly-polluted category for more than half the length of Erhjen Creek. In short, water quality modelling technique not only can assess the contributions of related projects, but establish a practical pollution reduction strategy using cost-benefit analysis, which allows decision-maker to find a suitable pollution reduction plan to exhibit most benefits in river water quality.

  15. Modeling the economics of LLW volume reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voth, M.H.; Witzig, W.F.

    1986-01-01

    Generators of low-level (radioactive) waste (LLW) are under pressure to implement volume reduction (VR) programs for political and economic reasons. Political reasons include the appearance of generating less waste or meeting quotas. Economic reasons include avoiding high disposal costs and associated surcharges. Volume reduction results in less total volume over which fixed disposal costs are allocated and therefore higher unit costs for disposal. As numerous small compacts are developed, this often overlooked effect becomes more pronounced. The described model presents two unique significant features. First, a feedback loop considers the impact of VR on disposal rates, and second, it appeals to logic without extensive knowledge of VR technology or computer modeling. The latter feature is especially useful in conveying information to students and nontechnical decision makers, demonstrating the impact of each of a complicated set of variables with reproducible results

  16. Can Economic Model Transparency Improve Provider Interpretation of Cost-effectiveness Analysis? Evaluating Tradeoffs Presented by the Second Panel on Cost-effectiveness in Health and Medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padula, William V; McQueen, Robert Brett; Pronovost, Peter J

    2017-11-01

    The Second Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine convened on December 7, 2016 at the National Academy of Medicine to disseminate their recommendations for conduct, methodological practices, and reporting of cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs). Following its summary, panel proceedings included lengthy discussions including the field's struggle to disseminate findings efficiently through peer-reviewed literature to target audiences. With editors of several medical and outcomes research journals in attendance, there was consensus that findings of cost-effectiveness analyses do not effectively reach other researchers or health care providers. The audience members suggested several solutions including providing additional training to clinicians in cost-effectiveness research and requiring that cost-effectiveness models are made publicly available. However, there remains the questions of whether making economic modelers' work open-access through journals is fair under the defense that these models remain one's own intellectual property, or whether journals can properly manage the peer-review process specifically for cost-effectiveness analyses. In this article, we elaborate on these issues and provide some suggested solutions that may increase the dissemination and application of cost-effectiveness literature to reach its intended audiences and ultimately benefit the patient. Ultimately, it is our combined view as economic modelers and clinicians that cost-effectiveness results need to reach the clinician to improve the efficiency of medical practice, but that open-access models do not improve clinician access or interpretation of the economics of medicine.

  17. [HEALTH ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FAIR DECISION MAKING].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeantet, Marine; Lopez, Alain

    2015-09-01

    Health technology assessment consists in evaluating the incremental cost-benefit ratio of a medicine, a medical device, a vaccine, a health strategy, in comparison to alternative health technologies. This form of socio-eoonomic evaluation aims at optimizing resource allocation within the health system. By setting the terms of valid alternatives, it is useful to highlight public choices, but it cannot in itself make the decision as regards the public funding of patient's access to the considered technology. The decision to include such technology in the basket of health goods and sercices covered, the levels and conditions of the coverage, also result from budget constraints, from economic situation and from a political vision about health policy, social protection and public expenditure. Accordingly, health economic analysis must be implemented on specific and targeted topics. The decision making process, with its health, economic and ethical stakes, calls for a public procedure and debate, based on shared information and argument. Otherwise, health system regulation, confronted with radical and costly innovations in the coming years, will become harder to handle. This requires the development of health economic research teams able to contribute to this assessment exercise.

  18. Economic Modeling of Compressed Air Energy Storage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Bo

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Due to the variable nature of wind resources, the increasing penetration level of wind power will have a significant impact on the operation and planning of the electric power system. Energy storage systems are considered an effective way to compensate for the variability of wind generation. This paper presents a detailed production cost simulation model to evaluate the economic value of compressed air energy storage (CAES in systems with large-scale wind power generation. The co-optimization of energy and ancillary services markets is implemented in order to analyze the impacts of CAES, not only on energy supply, but also on system operating reserves. Both hourly and 5-minute simulations are considered to capture the economic performance of CAES in the day-ahead (DA and real-time (RT markets. The generalized network flow formulation is used to model the characteristics of CAES in detail. The proposed model is applied on a modified IEEE 24-bus reliability test system. The numerical example shows that besides the economic benefits gained through energy arbitrage in the DA market, CAES can also generate significant profits by providing reserves, compensating for wind forecast errors and intra-hour fluctuation, and participating in the RT market.

  19. Analysis of the Quality of Service and Student Satisfaction at the School of Economics, University of Cartagena, Using a Structural Equation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Carlos Vergara Schmalbach

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Structural equation models have been widely used to analyze the quality of service in various organizations, demonstrating their adaptability and efficacy in determining the variables that affect customer satisfaction. This article proposes the use of a structural equation model to determine the quality of service offered by the different academic units of the School of Economics, University of Cartagena, combining Oh (1999 model with the original instrument of Parasuraman, Valarie, and Berry Zeithalm, presented in 1985. The result is a general diagnosis of the variables that exert the most influence on students’ satisfaction, and that motivate them to recommend their institution to others.

  20. A Reformulation of Normative Economics for Models with Endogenous Preferences

    OpenAIRE

    Vipul Bhatt; Masao Ogaki; Yuichi Yaguchi

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a framework to balance considerations of welfarism and virtue ethics in the normative analysis of economic models with endogenous preferences. We introduce the moral evaluation function (MEF), which ranks alternatives based purely on virtue ethics, and define the social objective function (SOF), which combines the Social Welfare Function (SWF) and the MEF. In a model of intergenerational altruism with endogenous time preference, using numerical simulations we show that max...

  1. A Reformulation of Normative Economics for Models with Endogenous

    OpenAIRE

    Bhatt, Vipul; Ogaki, Masao; Yaguchi, Yuichi

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a framework to balance considerations of welfarism and virtue ethics in the normative analysis of economic models with endogenous preferences. We introduce the moral evaluation function (MEF), which ranks alternatives based purely on virtue ethics, and define the social objective function (SOF), which combines the Social Welfare Function (SWF) and the MEF. In a model of intergenerational altruism with endogenous time preference, using numerical simulations we show that max...

  2. Nuclear power investment risk economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Postula, F.D.; Houghton, W.J.

    1986-01-01

    This paper describes the economic model which was developed to evaluate the net costs incurred by an owner due to an accident induced outage at a nuclear power plant. During such an outage, the portion of the plant operating costs associated with power production are saved; however the owner faces a sizable expense as fossil fuels are burned as a substitute for power from the incapacitated nuclear plant. Additional expenses are incurred by the owner for plant repair and, if necessary, decontamination cost. The model makes provision for mitigating these costs by sales of power, property damage insurance payments, tax write-offs and increased rates

  3. National Launch System comparative economic analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prince, A.

    1992-01-01

    Results are presented from an analysis of economic benefits (or losses), in the form of the life cycle cost savings, resulting from the development of the National Launch System (NLS) family of launch vehicles. The analysis was carried out by comparing various NLS-based architectures with the current Shuttle/Titan IV fleet. The basic methodology behind this NLS analysis was to develop a set of annual payload requirements for the Space Station Freedom and LEO, to design launch vehicle architectures around these requirements, and to perform life-cycle cost analyses on all of the architectures. A SEI requirement was included. Launch failure costs were estimated and combined with the relative reliability assumptions to measure the effects of losses. Based on the analysis, a Shuttle/NLS architecture evolving into a pressurized-logistics-carrier/NLS architecture appears to offer the best long-term cost benefit.

  4. Project analysis and integration economic analyses summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macomber, H. L.

    1986-01-01

    An economic-analysis summary was presented for the manufacture of crystalline-silicon modules involving silicon ingot/sheet, growth, slicing, cell manufacture, and module assembly. Economic analyses provided: useful quantitative aspects for complex decision-making to the Flat-plate Solar Array (FSA) Project; yardsticks for design and performance to industry; and demonstration of how to evaluate and understand the worth of research and development both to JPL and other government agencies and programs. It was concluded that future research and development funds for photovoltaics must be provided by the Federal Government because the solar industry today does not reap enough profits from its present-day sales of photovoltaic equipment.

  5. Hydrogen as alternative clean fuel: Economic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coiante, D.

    1995-03-01

    In analogy to biofuel production from biomasses, the electrolytic conversion of other renewable energies into hydrogen as an alternative clean fuel is considered. This solution allows the intermittent renewable energy sources, as photovoltaics and wind energy, to enhance their development and enlarge the role into conventional fuel market. A rough economic analysis of hydrogen production line shows the costs, added by electrolysis and storage stages, can be recovered by properly accounting for social and environmental costs due to whole cycle of conventional fuels, from production to use. So, in a perspective of attaining the economic competitiveness of renewable energy, the hydrogen, arising from intermittent renewable energy sources, will be able to compete in the energy market with conventional fuels, making sure that their substitution will occur in a significant amount and the corresponding environment

  6. Techno-economic analysis of bioenergy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solantausta, Y.

    1995-01-01

    The objectives of the IEA Bioenergy Technoeconomic Analysis Activity are: To promote development of thermochemical biomass conversion methods by carrying out selected site specific feasibility studies in participating countries. Both agricultural and woody biomasses will be converted either into electricity or boiler fuels. To compare advanced technologies to commercial alternatives based on techno-economic basis to establish future development needs. To facilitate information exchange between participants on relevant basic process issues. Five countries (Finland, Canada, USA, Norway, Austria) are participating to the Activity. Initially two feasibility studies are planned for each country. Each study has three common elements: site specific, technical, and economic data. The site specific cases are described below in short. Products in the cases are electricity, heat and fuel oil. Total of two cases per country are planned

  7. BERCENI VILLAGE - A SOCIAL-ECONOMICAL ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adina IORGA

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Rural modernization aims at maintaining rural societies through occupational diversification that will improvequality of life and avoid rural exodus. It aims to acquire some features of the modern world such as those related totechnical, increased productivity, infrastructure, whereby rural community enriches its identity, acquiring newmeanings.This study is a close social-economical analysis of the countryside households of Berceni village. Berceniis in the southern county of Ilfov near Bucharest. It is based on the statistical data provided by National Institute ofStatistics. The data have been processed into the following indicators:age structure and gender, births and deaths,feminization, migration .Considering that human resources is the main factor in developing and moderinization ofrural space, this study is aimed to investigate as well, the posibility of diversifying inhabitants’ occupationsaccording to pshicologycal, social and economical resources.

  8. Economic tour package model using heuristic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Syariza Abdul; Benjamin, Aida Mauziah; Bakar, Engku Muhammad Nazri Engku Abu

    2014-07-01

    A tour-package is a prearranged tour that includes products and services such as food, activities, accommodation, and transportation, which are sold at a single price. Since the competitiveness within tourism industry is very high, many of the tour agents try to provide attractive tour-packages in order to meet tourist satisfaction as much as possible. Some of the criteria that are considered by the tourist are the number of places to be visited and the cost of the tour-packages. Previous studies indicate that tourists tend to choose economical tour-packages and aiming to visit as many places as they can cover. Thus, this study proposed tour-package model using heuristic approach. The aim is to find economical tour-packages and at the same time to propose as many places as possible to be visited by tourist in a given geographical area particularly in Langkawi Island. The proposed model considers only one starting point where the tour starts and ends at an identified hotel. This study covers 31 most attractive places in Langkawi Island from various categories of tourist attractions. Besides, the allocation of period for lunch and dinner are included in the proposed itineraries where it covers 11 popular restaurants around Langkawi Island. In developing the itinerary, the proposed heuristic approach considers time window for each site (hotel/restaurant/place) so that it represents real world implementation. We present three itineraries with different time constraints (1-day, 2-day and 3-day tour-package). The aim of economic model is to minimize the tour-package cost as much as possible by considering entrance fee of each visited place. We compare the proposed model with our uneconomic model from our previous study. The uneconomic model has no limitation to the cost with the aim to maximize the number of places to be visited. Comparison between the uneconomic and economic itinerary has shown that the proposed model have successfully achieved the objective that

  9. Nuclear power investment risk economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Houghton, W.J.; Postula, F.D.

    1985-12-01

    This paper describes an economic model which was developed to evaluate the net costs incurred by a utility due to an accident induced outage at a nuclear power plant. During such an outage the portion of the plant operating costs associated with power production are saved; however, the owning utility faces a sizable expense as fossil fuels are burned as a substitute for the incapacitated nuclear power. Additional expenses are incurred by the utility for plant repair and if necessary, decontamination costs. The model makes provision for mitigating these costs by sales of power, property damage insurance payments, tax write-offs and increased rates. Over 60 economic variables contribute to the net cost uncertainty. The values of these variables are treated as uncertainty distributions and are used in a Monte carlo computer program to evaluate the cost uncertainty (investment risk) associated with damage which could occur from various categories of initiating accidents. As an example, results of computations for various levels of damage associated with a loss of coolant accident are shown as a range of consequential plant downtime and unrecovered cost. A typical investment risk profile is shown for these types of accidents. Cost/revenue values for each economic factor are presented for a Three Mile Island - II type accident, e.g., uncontrolled core heatup. 4 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs

  10. Economic Consequence Analysis of Disasters: The ECAT Software Tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rose, Adam; Prager, Fynn; Chen, Zhenhua; Chatterjee, Samrat; Wei, Dan; Heatwole, Nathaniel; Warren, Eric

    2017-04-15

    This study develops a methodology for rapidly obtaining approximate estimates of the economic consequences from numerous natural, man-made and technological threats. This software tool is intended for use by various decision makers and analysts to obtain estimates rapidly. It is programmed in Excel and Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) to facilitate its use. This tool is called E-CAT (Economic Consequence Analysis Tool) and accounts for the cumulative direct and indirect impacts (including resilience and behavioral factors that significantly affect base estimates) on the U.S. economy. E-CAT is intended to be a major step toward advancing the current state of economic consequence analysis (ECA) and also contributing to and developing interest in further research into complex but rapid turnaround approaches. The essence of the methodology involves running numerous simulations in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for each threat, yielding synthetic data for the estimation of a single regression equation based on the identification of key explanatory variables (threat characteristics and background conditions). This transforms the results of a complex model, which is beyond the reach of most users, into a "reduced form" model that is readily comprehensible. Functionality has been built into E-CAT so that its users can switch various consequence categories on and off in order to create customized profiles of economic consequences of numerous risk events. E-CAT incorporates uncertainty on both the input and output side in the course of the analysis.

  11. Offshore Wind Market and Economic Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, Bruce Duncan [Navigant Consulting, Inc., Chicago, IL (United States)

    2014-08-27

    This report is the third annual assessment of the U.S. offshore wind market. It includes the following major sections: Section 1: key data on developments in the offshore wind technology sector and the global development of offshore wind projects, with a particular focus on progress in the United States; Section 2: analysis of policy developments at the federal and state levels that have been effective in advancing offshore wind deployment in the United States; Section 3: analysis of actual and projected economic impact, including regional development and job creation; Section 4: analysis of developments in relevant sectors of the economy with the potential to affect offshore wind deployment in the United States

  12. Economic analysis of hydride fueled BWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ganda, F.; Shuffler, C.; Greenspan, E.; Todreas, N.

    2009-01-01

    The economic implications of designing BWR cores with hydride fuels instead of conventional oxide fuels are analyzed. The economic analysis methodology adopted is based on the lifetime levelized cost of electricity (COE). Bracketing values (1970 and 3010 $/kWe) are used for the overnight construction costs and for the power scaling factors (0.4 and 0.8) that correlate between a change in the capital cost to a change in the power level. It is concluded that a newly constructed BWR reactor could substantially benefit from the use of 10 x 10 hydride fuel bundles instead of 10 x 10 oxide fuel bundles design presently in use. The cost saving would depend on the core pressure drop constraint that can be implemented in newly constructed BWRs - it is between 2% and 3% for a core pressure drop constraint as of the reference BWR, between 9% and 15% for a 50% higher core pressure drop, and between 12% and 21% higher for close to 100% core pressure. The attainable cost reduction was found insensitive to the specific construction cost but strongly dependent on the power scaling factor. The cost advantage of hydride fuelled cores as compared to that of the oxide reference core depends only weakly on the uranium and SWU prices, on the 'per volume base' fabrication cost of hydride fuels, and on the discount rate used. To be economically competitive, the uranium enrichment required for the hydride fuelled core needs to be around 10%.

  13. Thermo-economic analysis of combined power plants with changing economic parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bidini, G.; Desideri, U.; Facchini, B.

    1991-01-01

    A method of thermo-economic analysis for the choice of optimal thermodynamic parameters of steam bottoming cycles in combined cycle power plants is presented. By keeping the thermodynamic aspects separated from the economic aspects, this method allows designers to easily perform a sensitivity analysis of the change in the economic parameters

  14. Thermal-economic analysis of cogeneration systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walter, A.C.S.; Bajay, S.V.

    1992-01-01

    Approximately 80 countries produce sugar, and fortuitously alcohol, from sugar cane. In all these countries the cogeneration technology of steam turbines is utilized, although almost always inefficient. The greater potential of cogeneration in Brazil is in sugar and alcohol sector, because of the use of sugar cane bagasse as combustible. This work applies the techniques of simulation and economic analysis to different configuration of plants, to determine power generation and associated costs of each alternative. The application of the same procedure at operating condition of several configurations in transient system permits the determination of production profile of exceeding during one day. (C.M.)

  15. Review of regional economic models with special reference to labor impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferris, G.; Mason, B.

    1979-06-01

    This paper reviews several regional economic models and examines the capabilities of these models for assessing the total employment impacts of solar energy adoption. Five generic analytic methods are discussed: economic base analysis, shift-share analysis, demographic-economic interaction models, input-output analysis, and industrial location analysis. Ten regional models incorporating some aspect of these methods are reviewed. From the model review, the conclusion is drawn that there is no single model that fits all of the necessary criteria for planned research efforts. Models that appear to hold promise are the Economic Activity Analysis (EAA) Model, the Regional Industrial Multipliers System (RIMS), the Multiregion, Multi-industry (MRMI) Model, and the MULTIREGION model.

  16. A review of mathematical models in economic environmental problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nahorski, Z.; Ravn, H.F.

    2000-01-01

    The paper presents a review of mathematical models used,in economic analysis of environmental problems. This area of research combines macroeconomic models of growth, as dependent on capital, labour, resources, etc., with environmental models describing such phenomena like natural resources...... exhaustion or pollution accumulation and degradation. In simpler cases the models can be treated analytically and the utility function can be optimized using, e.g., such tools as the maximum principle. In more complicated cases calculation of the optimal environmental policies requires a computer solution....

  17. NEW PARADIGM OF ANALYSIS OF STATISTICAL AND EXPERT DATA IN PROBLEMS OF ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Orlov A. I.

    2014-01-01

    The article is devoted to the methods of analysis of statistical and expert data in problems of economics and management that are discussed in the framework of scientific specialization "Mathematical methods of economy", including organizational-economic and economic-mathematical modeling, econometrics and statistics, as well as economic aspects of decision theory, systems analysis, cybernetics, operations research. The main provisions of the new paradigm of this scientific and practical fiel...

  18. DSEM, Radioactive Waste Disposal Site Economic Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, P.R.

    2005-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: The Disposal Site Economic Model calculates the average generator price, or average price per cubic foot charged by a disposal facility to a waste generator, one measure of comparing the economic attractiveness of different waste disposal site and disposal technology combinations. The generator price is calculated to recover all costs necessary to develop, construct, operate, close, and care for a site through the end of the institutional care period and to provide the necessary financial returns to the site developer and lender (when used). Six alternative disposal technologies, based on either private or public financing, can be considered - shallow land disposal, intermediate depth disposal, above or below ground vaults, modular concrete canister disposal, and earth mounded concrete bunkers - based on either private or public development. 2 - Method of solution: The economic models incorporate default cost data from the Conceptual Design Report (DOE/LLW-60T, June 1987), a study by Rodgers Associates Engineering Corporation. Because all costs are in constant 1986 dollars, the figures must be modified to account for inflation. Interest during construction is either capitalized for the private developer or rolled into the loan for the public developer. All capital costs during construction are depreciated over the operation life of the site using straight-line depreciation for the private sector. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Maxima of - 100 years post-operating period, 30 years operating period, 15 years pre-operating period. The model should be used with caution outside the range of 1.8 to 10.5 million cubic feet of total volume. Depreciation is not recognized with public development

  19. Forecasting models for national economic planning

    CERN Document Server

    Heesterman, A R G

    1972-01-01

    This book is about the specification of linear econometric models, and for this reason some important related fields have been deliberately omitted. I did not want to discuss the problems of parameter-estimation, at least not in any detail, as there are other books on these problems written by specialized statisticians. This book is about the models them­ selves and macro-economic models in particular. A second related sub­ ject is the policy decision that can be made with the help of a model. While I did write a chapter on policy decisions, I limited myself to some extent because of my views on planning as such. The logical approach to this problem is in terms of mathematical programming, but our models and our ideas about the policies we want are too crude for its effective utilisation. A realistic formulation of the problem should involve non­ linearities in an essential way, the models I consider (and most existing models) are linear. At the present state of econometrics, I do not really believe in suc...

  20. Physical-Socio-Economic Modeling of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamberlain, R. G.; Vatan, F.

    2008-12-01

    /information operations model. Each of these models focuses on part of the overall picture while; each contributes information about its area of expertise to a common pool and draws from that pool and the feedbacks from the other models as needed. Existing high-quality physical models are based on analysis of the dynamic interactions of atmospheric, land, and ocean processes. The demographic model tracks the civilian demographics needed by the other models. The populations of neighborhood group age-gender cohorts are affected by births, deaths, aging, and migration. This model provides labor supply and product demand curves to the economic model. The political model focuses on political actors and describes how they use their clout to seek their goals. Clout is derived from civilian support, the formal and informal alliances that actors make with each other, military strength, wealth, and control of information. It considers how they are constrained by their cultural heritage. It deals with shifting alliances. The economic model determines local and international prices and production quantities for a small number of products, including imports and exports and black markets; wages, jobs, and unemployment for a small number of labor categories; capital, growth, and inflation; resource usage and pollution. The media/information operations model addresses the effects of the control and content of inter- group and intra-group communications-and the side effects of these on other groups. This model will consist of rules (probably a large number of them) detailing the effects of media/information operations of various kinds on civilian parameters used in the other models, such as political goals, concern saliencies, and shapes of supply and demand curves.

  1. Better economics: supporting adaptation with stakeholder analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Zou, Ye; Boughlala, Mohamed

    2011-11-15

    Across the developing world, decision makers understand the need to adapt to climate change — particularly in agriculture, which supports a large proportion of low-income groups who are especially vulnerable to impacts such as increasing water scarcity or more erratic weather. But policymakers are often less clear about what adaptation action to take. Cost-benefit analyses can provide information on the financial feasibility and economic efficiency of a given policy. But such methods fail to capture the non-monetary benefits of adaptation, which can be even more important than the monetary ones. Ongoing work in Morocco shows how combining cost-benefit analysis with a more participatory stakeholder analysis can support effective decision making by identifying cross-sector benefits, highlighting areas of mutual interest among different stakeholders and more effectively assessing impacts on adaptive capacity.

  2. Economic Modeling Considerations for Rare Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Isobel; Rothwell, Ben; Olaye, Andrew; Knight, Christopher

    2018-05-01

    To identify challenges that affect the feasibility and rigor of economic models in rare diseases and strategies that manufacturers have employed in health technology assessment submissions to demonstrate the value of new orphan products that have limited study data. Targeted reviews of PubMed, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's (NICE's) Highly Specialised Technologies (HST), and the Scottish Medicines Consortium's (SMC's) ultra-orphan submissions were performed. A total of 19 PubMed studies, 3 published NICE HSTs, and 11 ultra-orphan SMC submissions were eligible for inclusion. In rare diseases, a number of different factors may affect the model's ability to comply with good practice recommendations. Many products for the treatment of rare diseases have an incomplete efficacy and safety profile at product launch. In addition, there is often limited available natural history and epidemiology data. Information on the direct and indirect cost burden of an orphan disease also may be limited, making it difficult to estimate the potential economic benefit of treatment. These challenges can prevent accurate estimation of a new product's benefits in relation to costs. Approaches that can address such challenges include using patient and/or clinician feedback to inform model assumptions; data from disease analogues; epidemiological techniques, such as matching-adjusted indirect comparison; and long-term data collection. Modeling in rare diseases is often challenging; however, a number of approaches are available to support the development of model structures and the collation of input parameters and to manage uncertainty. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Economic Efficiencyo on Limited Liability Companies: some Considerations on Economic Analysis of Law

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martinho Martins Botelho

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents briefly a theoretical approach about limited efficiency from the perspective Economic Analysis of Law (EAL of the limited liability company by examining initially the question of limited liability, under the scrutiny of the pro-rata theory and model manager-investor.  It approaches the liability of directors of corporations incorporated in the form of a limited company. Subsequently, its theoretical approaches are about the analysis of the first generation of agency theory (contract manager-investor incentives, the hypothesis of Modigliani-Miller irrelevance, and structures of great property.

  4. Models and relations in economics and econometrics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina

    1999-01-01

    Based on a money market analysis using the cointegrated VAR model the paper demonstrates some possible pitfalls in macroeconomic inference as a direct consequence of inadequate stochastic model formulation. A number of questions related to concepts such as empirical and theoretical steady...

  5. Economic modelling with low-cognition agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ormerod, Paul

    2006-10-01

    The standard socio-economic model (SSSM) postulates very considerable cognitive powers on the part of its agents. They are able to gather all relevant information in any given situation, and to take the optimal decision on the basis of it, given their tastes and preferences. This behavioural rule is postulated to be universal. The concept of bounded rationality relaxes this somewhat, by permitting agents to have access to only limited amounts of information. But agents still optimise subject to their information set and tastes. Empirical work in economics over the past 20 years or so has shown that in general these behavioural postulates lack empirical validity. Instead, agents appear to have limited ability to gather information, and use simple rules of thumb to process the information which they have in order to take decisions. Building theoretical models on these realistic foundations which give better accounts of empirical phenomena than does the SSSM is an important challenge to both economists and econophysicists. Considerable progress has already been made in a short space of time, and examples are given in this paper.

  6. A new green process for biodiesel production from waste oils via catalytic distillation using a solid acid catalyst – Modeling, economic and environmental analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aashish Gaurav

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The challenges in the chemical processing industry today are environmental concerns, energy and capital costs. Catalytic distillation (CD is a green reactor technology which combines a catalytic reaction and separation via distillation in the same distillation column. Utilization of CD in chemical process development could result in capital and energy savings, and the reduction of greenhouse gases. The efficacy of CD and the economic merits, in terms of energy and equipment savings, brought by CD for the production of biodiesel from waste oil such as yellow grease is quantified. Process flow sheets for industrial routes for an annual production of 10 million gallon ASTM purity biodiesel in a conventional process (reactor followed by distillation and CD configurations are modeled in Aspen Plus. Material and energy flows, as well as sized unit operation blocks, are used to conduct an economic assessment of each process. Total capital investment, total operating and utility costs are calculated for each process. The waste oil feedstock is yellow grease containing both triglyceride and free fatty acid. Both transesterification and esterification reactions are considered in the process simulations. Results show a significant advantage of CD compared to a conventional biodiesel processes due to the reduction of distillation columns, waste streams and greenhouse gas emissions. The significant savings in capital and energy costs together with the reduction of greenhouse gases demonstrate that process intensification via CD is a feasible and new green process for the biodiesel production from waste oils. Keywords: Yellow grease, Catalytic distillation, Aspen plus economic analyzer, Process intensification

  7. Estimation of Continuous Time Models in Economics: an Overview

    OpenAIRE

    Clifford R. Wymer

    2009-01-01

    The dynamics of economic behaviour is often developed in theory as a continuous time system. Rigorous estimation and testing of such systems, and the analysis of some aspects of their properties, is of particular importance in distinguishing between competing hypotheses and the resulting models. The consequences for the international economy during the past eighteen months of failures in the financial sector, and particularly the banking sector, make it essential that the dynamics of financia...

  8. Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (2010 - part 1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of this workshop Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis. focused on conceptual and methodological issues - integrated assessment modeling and valuation.

  9. Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

    2008-01-01

    Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

  10. Modeling human behavior in economics and social science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolfin, M; Leonida, L; Outada, N

    2017-12-01

    The complex interactions between human behaviors and social economic sciences is critically analyzed in this paper in view of possible applications of mathematical modeling as an attainable interdisciplinary approach to understand and simulate the aforementioned dynamics. The quest is developed along three steps: Firstly an overall analysis of social and economic sciences indicates the main requirements that a contribution of mathematical modeling should bring to these sciences; subsequently the focus moves to an overview of mathematical tools and to the selection of those which appear, according to the authors bias, appropriate to the modeling; finally, a survey of applications is presented looking ahead to research perspectives. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. ECONOMIC FORECASTS BASED ON ECONOMETRIC MODELS USING EViews 5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cornelia TomescuDumitrescu,

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The forecast of evolution of economic phenomena represent on the most the final objective of econometrics. It withal represent a real attempt of validity elaborate model. Unlike the forecasts based on the study of temporal series which have an recognizable inertial character the forecasts generated by econometric model with simultaneous equations are after to contour the future of ones of important economic variables toward the direct and indirect influences bring the bear on their about exogenous variables. For the relief of the calculus who the realization of the forecasts based on the econometric models its suppose is indicate the use of the specialized informatics programs. One of this is the EViews which is applied because it reduces significant the time who is destined of the econometric analysis and it assure a high accuracy of calculus and of the interpretation of results.

  12. Uncertainty analysis of geothermal energy economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sener, Adil Caner

    This dissertation research endeavors to explore geothermal energy economics by assessing and quantifying the uncertainties associated with the nature of geothermal energy and energy investments overall. The study introduces a stochastic geothermal cost model and a valuation approach for different geothermal power plant development scenarios. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is employed to obtain probability distributions of geothermal energy development costs and project net present values. In the study a stochastic cost model with incorporated dependence structure is defined and compared with the model where random variables are modeled as independent inputs. One of the goals of the study is to attempt to shed light on the long-standing modeling problem of dependence modeling between random input variables. The dependence between random input variables will be modeled by employing the method of copulas. The study focuses on four main types of geothermal power generation technologies and introduces a stochastic levelized cost model for each technology. Moreover, we also compare the levelized costs of natural gas combined cycle and coal-fired power plants with geothermal power plants. The input data used in the model relies on the cost data recently reported by government agencies and non-profit organizations, such as the Department of Energy, National Laboratories, California Energy Commission and Geothermal Energy Association. The second part of the study introduces the stochastic discounted cash flow valuation model for the geothermal technologies analyzed in the first phase. In this phase of the study, the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) software was used to forecast the revenue streams of geothermal assets under different price and regulation scenarios. These results are then combined to create a stochastic revenue forecast of the power plants. The uncertainties in gas prices and environmental regulations will be modeled and their potential impacts will be

  13. Integrating economic analysis and the science of climate instability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, Darwin C.; Behl, Richard J.

    2006-01-01

    Scientific understanding of climate change and climate instability has undergone a revolution in the past decade with the discovery of numerous past climate transitions so rapid, and so unlike the expectation of smooth climate changes, that they would have previously been unbelievable to the scientific community. Models commonly used by economists to assess the wisdom of adapting to human-induced climate change, rather than averting it, lack the ability to incorporate this new scientific knowledge. Here, we identify and explain the nature of recent scientific advances, and describe the key ways in which failure to reflect new knowledge in economic analysis skews the results of that analysis. This includes the understanding that economic optimization models reliant on convexity are inherently unable to determine an 'optimal' policy solution. It is incumbent on economists to understand and to incorporate the new science in their models, and on climatologists and other scientists to understand the basis of economic models so that they can assist in this essential effort. (author)

  14. Limitations of JEDI Models | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models |

    Science.gov (United States)

    Group's IMPLAN accounting software. For JEDI, these are updated every two years for the best available -output modeling remains a widely used methodology for measuring economic development activity. Definition definition of the geographic area under consideration. Datasets of multipliers from IMPLAN are available at

  15. Technical/economical analysis of bioenergy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solantausta, Y.

    1998-01-01

    The objectives of the IEA Bioenergy Technoeconomic Analysis Activity are: (1) To promote development of thermochemical biomass conversion methods by carrying out selected site specific feasibility studies in participating countries. Both agricultural and woody biomasses will be converted either into electricity or boiler fuels; (2) To compare advanced technologies to commercial alternatives based on technoeconomic basis to establish future development needs, and (3) To facilitate information exchange between participants on relevant basic process issues. Five countries (Finland, Canada, USA, Norway, Austria) are participating to the Activity. Initially two feasibility studies are planned for each country. Each study has three common elements: site specific, technical, and economic data. The site specific cases are described below in short. Products in the cases are electricity, heat and fuel oil. Total of two cases per country are planned. (orig.)

  16. Analysis of methods and models for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes in the agricultural sector of the US economy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Callaway, J.M.; Cronin, F.J.; Currie, J.W.; Tawil, J.

    1982-08-01

    The overall purpose of this research was to assist the US Department of Energy (DOE) in developing methods for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts due to the effects of increases in the ambient concentration of CO/sub 2/ on agricultural production. First, a comprehensive literature search was undertaken to determine what types of models and methods have been developed, which could be effectively used to conduct assessments of the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/ buildup. Specific attention was focused upon models and methods for assessing the physical impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes on crop yields; national and multi-regional agricultural sector models; and macroeconomic models of the US economy. The second task involved a thorough investigation of the research efforts being conducted by other public and private sector organizations in order to determine how more recent analytical methods being developed outside of DOE could be effectively integrated into a more comprehensive analysis of the direct economic impacts of CO/sub 2/ buildup. The third and final task involved synthesizing the information gathered in the first two tasks into a systematic framework for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes originating in the agricultural sector of the US economy. It is concluded that the direct economic impacts of CO/sub 2/ on the agricultural sector and the indirect economic impacts caused by spillover effects from agriculture to other sectors of the economy will be pervasive; however, the direction and magnitude of these impacts on producers and consumers cannot be determined a priori.

  17. An economic analysis of migration in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenwood, M J; Ladman, J R

    1978-07-01

    This paper analyzes internal migration in Mexico over the 1960-70 period. A model of the determinants of migration is specified and estimated for aggregated interstate migration flows. Results show that distance serves as a significant deterrent to migration, that higher destination earning levels are attractive to migrants, and that regions with high unemployment rates experience lower rates of inmigration. An unanticipated finding is that regions with higher earning levels have greater rates of outmigration. The data are disaggregated to examine separate migration relationships for each state. The results are that distance is a lesser deterrent for those migrants with more accessible alternatives, that higher earning levels reduce the deterring effects of distance, and that regions with higher earning levels have lower associated elasticities of migration. It is concluded that economic factors have played a crucial role in internal migration and thus in the changing occupational and geographic structure of the Mexican labor force.

  18. Advanced Coal Wind Hybrid: Economic Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phadke, Amol; Goldman, Charles; Larson, Doug; Carr, Tom; Rath, Larry; Balash, Peter; Yih-Huei, Wan

    2008-11-28

    Growing concern over climate change is prompting new thinking about the technologies used to generate electricity. In the future, it is possible that new government policies on greenhouse gas emissions may favor electric generation technology options that release zero or low levels of carbon emissions. The Western U.S. has abundant wind and coal resources. In a world with carbon constraints, the future of coal for new electrical generation is likely to depend on the development and successful application of new clean coal technologies with near zero carbon emissions. This scoping study explores the economic and technical feasibility of combining wind farms with advanced coal generation facilities and operating them as a single generation complex in the Western US. The key questions examined are whether an advanced coal-wind hybrid (ACWH) facility provides sufficient advantages through improvements to the utilization of transmission lines and the capability to firm up variable wind generation for delivery to load centers to compete effectively with other supply-side alternatives in terms of project economics and emissions footprint. The study was conducted by an Analysis Team that consists of staff from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and Western Interstate Energy Board (WIEB). We conducted a screening level analysis of the economic competitiveness and technical feasibility of ACWH generation options located in Wyoming that would supply electricity to load centers in California, Arizona or Nevada. Figure ES-1 is a simple stylized representation of the configuration of the ACWH options. The ACWH consists of a 3,000 MW coal gasification combined cycle power plant equipped with carbon capture and sequestration (G+CC+CCS plant), a fuel production or syngas storage facility, and a 1,500 MW wind plant. The ACWH project is connected to load centers by a 3,000 MW

  19. Factor Economic Analysis at Forestry Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.Yu. Chik

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The article studies the importance of economic analysis according to the results of research of scientific works of domestic and foreign scientists. The calculation of the influence of factors on the change in the cost of harvesting timber products by cost items has been performed. The results of the calculation of the influence of factors on the change of costs on 1 UAH are determined using the full cost of sold products. The variable and fixed costs and their distribution are allocated that influences the calculation of the impact of factors on cost changes on 1 UAH of sold products. The paper singles out the general results of calculating the influence of factors on cost changes on 1 UAH of sold products. According to the results of the analysis, the list of reserves for reducing the cost of production at forest enterprises was proposed. The main sources of reserves for reducing the prime cost of forest products at forest enterprises are investigated based on the conducted factor analysis.

  20. Applying economic principles to outcomes analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shauver, Melissa J; Chung, Kevin C

    2013-04-01

    This article presents an introduction to economic outcomes for the plastic surgeon investigator. Types of economic outcomes are introduced and the matter of perspective is discussed. Examples from the plastic surgery literature are presented. The current and future importance of economic outcome measures is emphasized. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. A Readability Analysis of Selected Introductory Economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallagher, Daniel J.; Thompson, G. Rodney

    1981-01-01

    To aid secondary school and college level economics teachers as they select textbooks for introductory economics courses, this article recounts how teachers can use the Flesch Reading Ease Test to measure readability. Data are presented on application of the Flesch Reading Ease Test to 15 introductory economics textbooks. (Author/DB)

  2. Economic Analysis of Factors Affecting Technical Efficiency of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Economic Analysis of Factors Affecting Technical Efficiency of Smallholders ... socio-economic characteristics which influence technical efficiency in maize production. ... Ministry of Agriculture and livestock, records, books, reports and internet.

  3. Simulation of electric power conservation strategies: model of economic evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinhel, A.C.C.

    1992-01-01

    A methodology for the economic evaluation model for energy conservation programs to be executed by the National Program of Electric Power Conservation is presented. From data as: forecasting of conserved energy, tariffs, energy costs and budget, the model calculates the economic indexes for the programs, allowing the evaluation of economic impacts in the electric sector. (C.G.C.)

  4. An Alternative Macro-economic Model for the Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Bryan

    1976-01-01

    Presents Michal Kalecki's macro-economic model and two-sector version of the model by Robinson and Eatwell as circular flow diagrams. Advantages of using this approach in first-year undergraduate economics programs are discussed. Available from: General Secretary, Economics Association, Room 340, Hamilton House, Mabledon Place, London WC1H 9BH,…

  5. Analysis of economic values of land use and land cover changes in crisis territories by satellite data: models of socio-economy and population dynamics in war

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostyuchenko, Yuriy V.; Yuschenko, Maxim; Movchan, Dmytro; Kopachevsky, Ivan

    2017-10-01

    Problem of remote sensing data harnessing for decision making in conflict territories is considered. Approach for analysis of socio-economic and demographic parameters with a limited set of data and deep uncertainty is described. Number of interlinked techniques to estimate a population and economy in crisis territories are proposed. Stochastic method to assessment of population dynamics using multi-source data using remote sensing data is proposed. Adaptive Markov's chain based method to study of land-use changes using satellite data is proposed. Proposed approach is applied to analysis of socio-economic situation in Donbas (East Ukraine) territory of conflict in 2014-2015. Land-use and landcover patterns for different periods were analyzed using the Landsat and MODIS data . The land-use classification scheme includes the following categories: (1) urban or built-up land, (2) barren land, (3) cropland, (4) horticulture farms, (5) livestock farms, (6) forest, and (7) water. It was demonstrated, that during the period 2014-2015 was not detected drastic changes in land-use structure of study area. Heterogeneously distributed decreasing of horticulture farms (4-6%), livestock farms (5-6%), croplands (3-4%), and increasing of barren land (6-7%) have been observed. Way to analyze land-cover productivity variations using satellite data is proposed. Algorithm is based on analysis of time-series of NDVI and NDWI distributions. Drastic changes of crop area and its productivity were detected. Set of indirect indicators, such as night light intensity, is also considered. Using the approach proposed, using the data utilized, the local and regional GDP, local population, and its dynamics are estimated.

  6. Medical imaging technology shock and volatility of macro economics: Analysis using a three-sector dynamical stochastic general equilibrium REC model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Shurong; Huang, Yeqing

    2017-07-07

    The study analysed the medical imaging technology business cycle from 1981 to 2009 and found that the volatility of consumption in Chinese medical imaging business was higher than that of the developed countries. The volatility of gross domestic product (GDP) and the correlation between consumption and GDP is also higher than that of the developed countries. Prior to the early 1990s the volatility of consumption is even higher than GDP. This fact makes it difficult to explain the volatile market using the standard one sector real economic cycle (REC) model. Contrary to the other domestic studies, this study considers a three-sector dynamical stochastic general equilibrium REC model. In this model there are two consumption sectors, whereby one is labour intensive and another is capital intensive. The more capital intensive investment sector only introduces technology shocks in the medical imaging market. Our response functions and Monte-Carlo simulation results show that the model can explain 90% of the volatility of consummation relative to GDP, and explain the correlation between consumption and GDP. The results demonstrated the significant correlation between the technological reform in medical imaging and volatility in the labour market on Chinese macro economy development.

  7. Economic model predictive control theory, formulations and chemical process applications

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, Matthew; Christofides, Panagiotis D

    2017-01-01

    This book presents general methods for the design of economic model predictive control (EMPC) systems for broad classes of nonlinear systems that address key theoretical and practical considerations including recursive feasibility, closed-loop stability, closed-loop performance, and computational efficiency. Specifically, the book proposes: Lyapunov-based EMPC methods for nonlinear systems; two-tier EMPC architectures that are highly computationally efficient; and EMPC schemes handling explicitly uncertainty, time-varying cost functions, time-delays and multiple-time-scale dynamics. The proposed methods employ a variety of tools ranging from nonlinear systems analysis, through Lyapunov-based control techniques to nonlinear dynamic optimization. The applicability and performance of the proposed methods are demonstrated through a number of chemical process examples. The book presents state-of-the-art methods for the design of economic model predictive control systems for chemical processes. In addition to being...

  8. International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2016-09-01

    International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal energy projects. Building on a similar model for the United States, I-JEDI was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory under the U.S. government's Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to support partner countries in assessing economic impacts of LEDS actions in the energy sector.

  9. Model for the techno-economic analysis of common work of wind power and CCGT power plant to offer constant level of power in the electricity market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomsic Z.

    2017-01-01

    For calculation purposes, the following parameters are necessary to know in order to be able to economically evaluate changes in the start-up process: ramp up and down rate, time of start time reduction, fuel mass flow during start, electricity production during start, variable cost of start-up process, cost and charges for life time consumption for each start and start type, remuneration during start up time regarding expected or unexpected starts, the cost and revenues for balancing energy (important when participating in electricity market, and the cost or revenues for CO2-certificates. Main motivation for this analysis is to investigate possibilities to participate on power exchanges by offering continues guarantied power from wind plants by backing-up them with CCGT power plant.

  10. Economic Multipliers and Mega-Event Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Victor Matheson

    2004-01-01

    Critics of economic impact studies that purport to show that mega-events such as the Olympics bring large benefits to the communities “lucky” enough to host them frequently cite the use of inappropriate multipliers as a primary reason why these impact studies overstate the true economic gains to the hosts of these events. This brief paper shows in a numerical example how mega-events may lead to inflated multipliers and exaggerated claims of economic benefits.

  11. Los Alamos National Laboratory Economic Analysis Capability Overview

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Information Systems and Modeling Group; Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Information Systems and Modeling Group; Pasqualini, Donatella [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Information Systems and Modeling Group; Rivera, Michael Kelly [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Information Systems and Modeling Group

    2016-04-19

    Los Alamos National Laboratory has developed two types of models to compute the economic impact of infrastructure disruptions. FastEcon is a fast running model that estimates first-­order economic impacts of large scale events such as hurricanes and floods and can be used to identify the amount of economic activity that occurs in a specific area. LANL’s Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model estimates more comprehensive static and dynamic economic impacts of a broader array of events and captures the interactions between sectors and industries when estimating economic impacts.

  12. A statistical mechanical model of economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubbers, Nicholas Edward Williams

    Statistical mechanics pursues low-dimensional descriptions of systems with a very large number of degrees of freedom. I explore this theme in two contexts. The main body of this dissertation explores and extends the Yard Sale Model (YSM) of economic transactions using a combination of simulations and theory. The YSM is a simple interacting model for wealth distributions which has the potential to explain the empirical observation of Pareto distributions of wealth. I develop the link between wealth condensation and the breakdown of ergodicity due to nonlinear diffusion effects which are analogous to the geometric random walk. Using this, I develop a deterministic effective theory of wealth transfer in the YSM that is useful for explaining many quantitative results. I introduce various forms of growth to the model, paying attention to the effect of growth on wealth condensation, inequality, and ergodicity. Arithmetic growth is found to partially break condensation, and geometric growth is found to completely break condensation. Further generalizations of geometric growth with growth in- equality show that the system is divided into two phases by a tipping point in the inequality parameter. The tipping point marks the line between systems which are ergodic and systems which exhibit wealth condensation. I explore generalizations of the YSM transaction scheme to arbitrary betting functions to develop notions of universality in YSM-like models. I find that wealth vi condensation is universal to a large class of models which can be divided into two phases. The first exhibits slow, power-law condensation dynamics, and the second exhibits fast, finite-time condensation dynamics. I find that the YSM, which exhibits exponential dynamics, is the critical, self-similar model which marks the dividing line between the two phases. The final chapter develops a low-dimensional approach to materials microstructure quantification. Modern materials design harnesses complex

  13. Assessing groundwater policy with coupled economic-groundwater hydrologic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulligan, Kevin B.; Brown, Casey; Yang, Yi-Chen E.; Ahlfeld, David P.

    2014-03-01

    This study explores groundwater management policies and the effect of modeling assumptions on the projected performance of those policies. The study compares an optimal economic allocation for groundwater use subject to streamflow constraints, achieved by a central planner with perfect foresight, with a uniform tax on groundwater use and a uniform quota on groundwater use. The policies are compared with two modeling approaches, the Optimal Control Model (OCM) and the Multi-Agent System Simulation (MASS). The economic decision models are coupled with a physically based representation of the aquifer using a calibrated MODFLOW groundwater model. The results indicate that uniformly applied policies perform poorly when simulated with more realistic, heterogeneous, myopic, and self-interested agents. In particular, the effects of the physical heterogeneity of the basin and the agents undercut the perceived benefits of policy instruments assessed with simple, single-cell groundwater modeling. This study demonstrates the results of coupling realistic hydrogeology and human behavior models to assess groundwater management policies. The Republican River Basin, which overlies a portion of the Ogallala aquifer in the High Plains of the United States, is used as a case study for this analysis.

  14. Ultrasonic boiler inspection and economic analysis guidelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1987-01-01

    Boiler tube failures cause approximately 6% availability loss of large fossil-fired power generating plants. This loss can be reduced by systematic approaches using ultrasonic examination and root cause failure analysis methods. Two projects sponsored by EPRI have provided utility engineers with guidelines for performing ultrasonic examinations and with details on 22 types of tube failure mechanisms. A manual has been published that provides descriptions of typical locations, superficial appearances, damage mechanisms, metallurgy, microstructural changes, likely root causes, and potential corrective actions. Application of the principles in the manual is being demonstrated in an EPRI-funded project at 10 electric utilities over the next two years. Guidelines have been published that prescribe the activities necessary for ultrasonic examinations of boiler tubes. Eight essential elements of a boiler examination should be performed to assure that possible economic benefits are obtained. Work was supported by EPRI under RP 1890 and RP 1865. A software package has been developed for effectively planning inspections for wall thinning in fossil-fired boiler tubing. The software assists in minimizing costs associated with maintenance, such as inspection and repair, while the life of the boiler is maximized

  15. Economic analysis of emerald ash borer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) management options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vannatta, A R; Hauer, R H; Schuettpelz, N M

    2012-02-01

    Emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis (Fairmaire) (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), plays a significant role in the health and extent of management of native North American ash species in urban forests. An economic analysis of management options was performed to aid decision makers in preparing for likely future infestations. Separate ash tree population valuations were derived from the i-Tree Streets program and the Council of Tree and Landscape Appraisers (CTLA) methodology. A relative economic analysis was used to compare a control option (do-nothing approach, only removing ash trees as they die) to three distinct management options: 1) preemptive removal of all ash trees over a 5 yr period, 2) preemptive removal of all ash trees and replacement with comparable nonash trees, or 3) treating the entire population of ash trees with insecticides to minimize mortality. For each valuation and management option, an annual analysis was performed for both the remaining ash tree population and those lost to emerald ash borer. Retention of ash trees using insecticide treatments typically retained greater urban forest value, followed by doing nothing (control), which was better than preemptive removal and replacement. Preemptive removal without tree replacement, which was the least expensive management option, also provided the lowest net urban forest value over the 20-yr simulation. A "no emerald ash borer" scenario was modeled to further serve as a benchmark for each management option and provide a level of economic justification for regulatory programs aimed at slowing the movement of emerald ash borer.

  16. Advancing School-Based Interventions through Economic Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsson, Tina M.; Ferrer-Wreder, Laura; Eninger, Lilianne

    2014-01-01

    Commentators interested in school-based prevention programs point to the importance of economic issues for the future of prevention efforts. Many of the processes and aims of prevention science are dependent upon prevention resources. Although economic analysis is an essential tool for assessing resource use, the attention given economic analysis…

  17. Air Force Pilot Retention: An Economic Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-01-01

    Force impacts retention. Within the field of labor economics , an alternative labor market theory has developed which contrasts with typical competitive...this section. 60 NOTES ON CHAPTER III 1 Sherwin Rosen. "The Theory of Equalizing Differences," _Handboof•f Labor Economics , Volume 1, (New York

  18. Economic profitability analysis of demand side management program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheen, J.N.

    2005-01-01

    This study considers both the internal and external costs of the utility in deriving the avoided capacity cost (ACC) and avoided operating cost (AOC) induced in an electric utility caused by the implementation of a demand side management program (DSM). In calculating the ACC, a multiple objective linear programming model is developed. Meanwhile, the AOC is calculated by considering the differences between the total and specific time period energy consumption ratios before and after the implementation of the DSM program. This study also develops an economic analysis method using Net Present Value and Pay Back Year models to assess the economic profitability of implementing a DSM program from a participant's point of view. The design and construction of a partial load leveling eutectic salt Cooling Energy Storage (CES) air conditioning system in a target office building in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, is discussed in order to simulate the cost benefit of the CES system from the perspective of the utility and from that of the participant. The results confirm the effectiveness of the developed models in simulating the economic benefits of implementing a DSM program from the perspectives of both the utility and the participant

  19. REFERENCE MODELS OF ENDOGENOUS ECONOMIC GROWTH

    OpenAIRE

    GEAMĂNU MARINELA

    2012-01-01

    The new endogenous growth theories are a very important research area for shaping the most effective policies and long term sustainable development strategies. Endogenous growth theory has emerged as a reaction to the imperfections of neoclassical theory, by the fact that the economic growth is the endogenous product of an economical system.

  20. Environmental flows in hydro-economic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereau, Jean-Christophe; Pryet, Alexandre

    2018-03-01

    The protection of environmental flows, as a management objective for a regulating agency, needs to be consistent with the aquifer water balance and the degree of resource renewability. A stylized hydro-economic model is used where natural recharge, which sustains environmental flows, is considered both in the aquifer water budget and in the welfare function as ecosystem damage. Groundwater recharge and the associated natural drainage may be neglected for aquifers containing fossil water, where the groundwater is mined. However, when dealing with an aquifer that constitutes a renewable resource, for which recharge is not negligible, natural drainage should explicitly appear in the water budget. In doing so, the optimum path of net extraction rate does not necessarily converge to the recharge rate, but depends on the costs associated with ecosystem damages. The optimal paths and equilibrium values for the water volume and water extraction are analytically derived, and numerical simulations based on the Western La Mancha aquifer (southwest Spain) illustrate the theoretical results of the study.

  1. Economic contract theory tests models of mutualism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weyl, E Glen; Frederickson, Megan E; Yu, Douglas W; Pierce, Naomi E

    2010-09-07

    Although mutualisms are common in all ecological communities and have played key roles in the diversification of life, our current understanding of the evolution of cooperation applies mostly to social behavior within a species. A central question is whether mutualisms persist because hosts have evolved costly punishment of cheaters. Here, we use the economic theory of employment contracts to formulate and distinguish between two mechanisms that have been proposed to prevent cheating in host-symbiont mutualisms, partner fidelity feedback (PFF) and host sanctions (HS). Under PFF, positive feedback between host fitness and symbiont fitness is sufficient to prevent cheating; in contrast, HS posits the necessity of costly punishment to maintain mutualism. A coevolutionary model of mutualism finds that HS are unlikely to evolve de novo, and published data on legume-rhizobia and yucca-moth mutualisms are consistent with PFF and not with HS. Thus, in systems considered to be textbook cases of HS, we find poor support for the theory that hosts have evolved to punish cheating symbionts; instead, we show that even horizontally transmitted mutualisms can be stabilized via PFF. PFF theory may place previously underappreciated constraints on the evolution of mutualism and explain why punishment is far from ubiquitous in nature.

  2. An energy-economic scenario analysis of alternative fuels for personal transport using the Global Multi-regional MARKAL model (GMM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guel, Timur; Kypreos, Socrates; Turton, Hal; Barreto, Leonardo

    2009-01-01

    This paper deals with the long-term prospects of alternative fuels in global personal transport. It aims at assessing key drivers and key bottlenecks for their deployment, focusing particularly on the role of biofuels and hydrogen in meeting climate policy objectives. The analysis is pursued using the Global Multi-regional MARKAL model (GMM), a perfect foresight ''bottom-up'' model of the global energy system with a detailed representation of alternative fuel chains, linked to the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC). The analysis shows that biofuels are limited by the regional availability of low-cost biomass, but can be important for meeting mild climate policy targets. If policy-makers intend to pursue more stringent climate policy, then hydrogen becomes a competitive option. However, the analysis finds that the use of hydrogen in personal transport is restricted to very stringent climate policy, as only such policy provides enough incentive to build up the required delivery infrastructure. An analysis of costs additionally shows that ''keeping the hydrogen option open'' does not take considerable investments compared to the investment needs in the power sector within the next decades, but allows the use of hydrogen for the pursuit of stringent climate policy in the second half of the century. (author)

  3. An Alternative Theoretical Model for Economic Reforms in Africa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper offers an alternative model for economic reforms in Africa. It proposes that Africa can still get on the pathway of sustained economic growth if economic reforms can focus on a key variable, namely, the price of non-tradables. Prices of non-tradables are generally less in Africa than in advanced economies, and the ...

  4. Economic analysis of potential uses of geothermal energy in agriculture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cone, B.W.

    1978-02-01

    The economic feasibility and water quality considerations of the cultural practice of soil warming was evaluated using existing technical, agronomic, and economic data. It was hypothesized that it is technically and economically feasible to use geothermal energy in the cultural practice of soil warming for specific crops. The analysis attempted to reject the hypothesis. Since the hypothesis could not be rejected, the results are presented as a profit equation suitable for inclusion in the GEOCOST computer program. This determination of economic feasibility utilized heterogeneous crop yield data by comparing the elasticity of response with a normalized product-factor price ratio. Soil warming was determined to be feasible when the elasticity of production was equal to or greater than the normalized product-factor price ratio. A farm enterprise was determined profitable if net returns were positive. An empirical model in which the energy dissipation rate is a function of the difference between heat source temperature and mean monthly air temperature was transformed to utilize data describing the total heat applied during the growing season. Heat input was then measured as the total number of calories per square centimeter applied during the growing season.

  5. Women in development : issues for economic and sector analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Women in Development Division

    1989-01-01

    This paper highlights issues and action plans concerning women in economic and sector analysis and in project design. The paper focuses on the majority of women who are poor. It emphasizes measures to include women in development that contribute to economic performance, poverty reduction, slower population growth, and other broad development objectives. The paper concludes that women already contribute far more economically than is usually recognized. By expanding women's economic choices, ou...

  6. Modeling hard clinical end-point data in economic analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kansal, Anuraag R; Zheng, Ying; Palencia, Roberto; Ruffolo, Antonio; Hass, Bastian; Sorensen, Sonja V

    2013-11-01

    The availability of hard clinical end-point data, such as that on cardiovascular (CV) events among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, is increasing, and as a result there is growing interest in using hard end-point data of this type in economic analyses. This study investigated published approaches for modeling hard end-points from clinical trials and evaluated their applicability in health economic models with different disease features. A review of cost-effectiveness models of interventions in clinically significant therapeutic areas (CV diseases, cancer, and chronic lower respiratory diseases) was conducted in PubMed and Embase using a defined search strategy. Only studies integrating hard end-point data from randomized clinical trials were considered. For each study included, clinical input characteristics and modeling approach were summarized and evaluated. A total of 33 articles (23 CV, eight cancer, two respiratory) were accepted for detailed analysis. Decision trees, Markov models, discrete event simulations, and hybrids were used. Event rates were incorporated either as constant rates, time-dependent risks, or risk equations based on patient characteristics. Risks dependent on time and/or patient characteristics were used where major event rates were >1%/year in models with fewer health states (Models of infrequent events or with numerous health states generally preferred constant event rates. The detailed modeling information and terminology varied, sometimes requiring interpretation. Key considerations for cost-effectiveness models incorporating hard end-point data include the frequency and characteristics of the relevant clinical events and how the trial data is reported. When event risk is low, simplification of both the model structure and event rate modeling is recommended. When event risk is common, such as in high risk populations, more detailed modeling approaches, including individual simulations or explicitly time-dependent event rates, are

  7. Economic Growth and Budget Constraints: EU Countries Panel Data Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zimčík Petr

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to identify the impacts of different taxes and expenditures on economic growth. The research is focused on 20 selected European Union Member States. These countries are equally divided into four groups based on their average tax burden as presented in the World Tax Index. A comparison of fiscal attributes among these groups is important for the analysis. Annual government finance data from the years 1995 to 2012 are used for an empirical study. The indicators observed are real GDP change, the composition and volume of total government expenditures, tax quotas of individual taxes and total budget balance. These indicators are used within an endogenous growth model together with capital stock and an approximation of human capital. A panel regression with fixed effects is used as an analytic tool. The main results are that an increase in social contributions, property, production and personal income tax quotas has an adverse effect on economic growth.

  8. Proof of Economic Viability of Blended Learning Business Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druhmann, Carsten; Hohenberg, Gregor

    2014-01-01

    The discussion on economically sustainable business models with respect to information technology is lacking in many aspects of proven approaches. In the following contribution the economic viability is valued based on a procedural model for design and evaluation of e-learning business models in the form of a case study. As a case study object a…

  9. Det siger DREAM jo også?: ”As DREAM shows” – a discourse- and power analysis of the economic model DREAM”

    OpenAIRE

    Ibsen, Bjarne; Scharbau, Frederik; Mathiassen, Ørskov; Elna, Mette; Deis, Nadia Alexandra; Grüner Veber Nielsen, Simone; Dahlin, Holde; Merethe, Simone

    2011-01-01

    We have in this project made a discourse- and power analysis, to answer our research question: How does DREAM keep its powerful position in the Danish political debate, although experts criticize it? We can conclude that the reason why the DREAM-model can keep its powerful position in Danish politics, although experts criticize it, is that it provides knowledge that gives the model power. This happens trough a reproduction of the discourse as true and valid and the latent need to be able to “...

  10. Economic Analysis of Pyro-SFR Fuel Cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, Fanxing; Park, Byungheung; Kwon, Eunha; Ko, Wonil

    2010-01-01

    In this study, based on the material flow the economics of Pyro-SFR has been estimated. These are mainly two methodologies to perform nuclear fuel cycle cost study which is based on the material flow calculations. One is equilibrium model and the other is dynamic model. Equilibrium model focus on the batch study with the assumptions that the whole system is in a steady state and mass flow as well as the electricity production all through the fuel cycle is in equilibrium state, which calculates the electricity production within a certain period and associated material flow with reference to unit cost in order to obtain the cost of electricity. Dynamic model takes the time factor into consideration to simulate the actual cases. Compared with the dynamic analysis model, the outcome of equilibrium model is more theoretical comparisons, especially with regard to the large uncertainty of the development of the pyro-technology evaluated. In this study equilibrium model was built to calculate the material flow on a batch basis. With the unit cost being determined, the cost of each step of fuel cycle could be obtained, so does the FMC. Due to the unavoidable uncertainty with certain unit costs, evaluated cost range and uncertainty study are applied. Sensitivity analysis has also been performed to obtain the breakeven uranium price for Pyro-SFR against PWR-O T. Economics of Pyro-SFR fuel cycle scenario has been calculated and compared by employing equilibrium model. The LFCC were obtained, Pyro-SFR 7.68 mills/kWh. The Uranium price is the dominant driver of LFCC. Pyro-techniques also weight considerably in Pyro-SFR scenario. On consideration of the current unavoidable uncertainties introduced by certain cost data, cost range and triangle techniques were used to perform the uncertainty study which indicates that the gap between Pyro-SFR and PWR-O T fuel cycle scenario is relatively small

  11. Modeling Renewable Penertration Using a Network Economic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamont, A.

    2001-03-01

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of a network economic modeling approach in designing energy systems having renewable and conventional generators. The network approach models the system as a network of processes such as demands, generators, markets, and resources. The model reaches a solution by exchanging prices and quantity information between the nodes of the system. This formulation is very flexible and takes very little time to build and modify models. This paper reports an experiment designing a system with photovoltaic and base and peak fossil generators. The level of PV penetration as a function of its price and the capacities of the fossil generators were determined using the network approach and using an exact, analytic approach. It is found that the two methods agree very closely in terms of the optimal capacities and are nearly identical in terms of annual system costs.

  12. Economic analysis of nuclear power generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Ki Dong; Choi, Young Myung; Kim, Hwa Sup; Lee, Man Ki; Moon, Kee Hwan; Kim, Seung Su; Chae, Kyu Nam

    1996-12-01

    The major contents in this study are as follows : (1) Efforts are made to examine the role of nuclear energy considering environmental regulation. An econometric model for energy demand and supply including carbon tax imposition is established. (2) Analysis for the learning effect of nuclear power plant operation is performed. The study is focused to measure the effect of technology homogeneity on the operation performance. (3) A preliminary capital cost of the KALIMER is estimated by using cost computer program, which is developed in this study. (author). 36 refs.,46 tabs., 15 figs.

  13. Economic impact analysis of short line railroads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-10-01

    This research project assesses the economic role and impact of short line railroads in the state of Louisiana. While relatively small in : scope, with 11 operators and approximately 500 miles of track, short line railroads play a significant role in ...

  14. Using hydro-economic modelling to investigate trade-offs between ecological and economic water management objectives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riegels, Niels

    is that land and water use levels predicted by the two approaches are essentially the same. The prediction that high-value irrigated crops will not replace low-value crops is not unreasonable given behavior observed in the baseline data set and highlights the limitations of using economic models calibrated......In regions where water scarcity exists, economic analysis can help identify ways to increase benefits of water use. The European Union’s Water Framework Directive (WFD), is an example of a law that requires the use of economic principles, approaches, and instruments in water resources management....... One of these instruments is water pricing. This study develops an approach for implementing the water pricing guidelines of the WFD at the river basin scale and then uses hydro-economic modelling to estimate the impacts of applying these guidelines. The central purpose of the WFD is the protection...

  15. Partial differential equation models in the socio-economic sciences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burger, Martin; Caffarelli, Luis; Markowich, Peter A

    2014-11-13

    Mathematical models based on partial differential equations (PDEs) have become an integral part of quantitative analysis in most branches of science and engineering, recently expanding also towards biomedicine and socio-economic sciences. The application of PDEs in the latter is a promising field, but widely quite open and leading to a variety of novel mathematical challenges. In this introductory article of the Theme Issue, we will provide an overview of the field and its recent boosting topics. Moreover, we will put the contributions to the Theme Issue in an appropriate perspective. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  16. Partial differential equation models in the socio-economic sciences

    KAUST Repository

    Burger, Martin

    2014-10-06

    Mathematical models based on partial differential equations (PDEs) have become an integral part of quantitative analysis in most branches of science and engineering, recently expanding also towards biomedicine and socio-economic sciences. The application of PDEs in the latter is a promising field, but widely quite open and leading to a variety of novel mathematical challenges. In this introductory article of the Theme Issue, we will provide an overview of the field and its recent boosting topics. Moreover, we will put the contributions to the Theme Issue in an appropriate perspective.

  17. Antieigenvalue analysis for continuum mechanics, economics, and number theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustafson Karl

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available My recent book Antieigenvalue Analysis, World-Scientific, 2012, presented the theory of antieigenvalues from its inception in 1966 up to 2010, and its applications within those forty-five years to Numerical Analysis, Wavelets, Statistics, Quantum Mechanics, Finance, and Optimization. Here I am able to offer three further areas of application: Continuum Mechanics, Economics, and Number Theory. In particular, the critical angle of repose in a continuum model of granular materials is shown to be exactly my matrix maximum turning angle of the stress tensor of the material. The important Sharpe ratio of the Capital Asset Pricing Model is now seen in terms of my antieigenvalue theory. Euclid’s Formula for Pythagorean triples becomes a special case of my operator trigonometry.

  18. Financial Transaction Tax: Determination of Economic Impact Under DSGE Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronika Solilová

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The discussion about the possible taxation of the financial sector has started in the European Union as a result of the financial crisis which has spread to the Europe from the United States in 2008 and consequently of the massive financial interventions by governments made in favour of the financial sector. On 14 February 2013, after rejection of the draft of the directive introducing a common system of financial transaction tax in 2011, the European Commission introduced the financial transaction tax through enhanced cooperation. The aim of the paper is to research economic impact of financial transaction tax on EU (EU27 or EU11 with respect to the DSGE model which was used for the determination of impacts. Based on our analysis the DSGE model can be considered as underestimated in case of the impact on economic growth and an overestimated in case of the revenue collection. Particularly, the overall impact of the financial transaction tax considering cascade effects of securities (tax rate 2.2% and derivatives (tax rate 0.2% is ranged between −4.752 and 1.472 percent points of GDP. And further, is assumed that the relocation effects of business/trade can be in average 40% causes a decline of expected tax revenues in the amount of 13bn EUR. Thus, at a time of fragile economic growth across the EU and the increased risk of recession in Europe, the introduction of the FTT should be undesirable.

  19. CRISP. Information Security Models and Their Economics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gustavsson, R.; Mellstrand, P.; Tornqvist, B.

    2005-03-01

    The deliverable D1.6 includes background material and specifications of a CRISP Framework on protection of information assets related to power net management and management of business operations related to energy services. During the project it was discovered by the CRISP consortium that the original description of WP 1.6 was not adequate for the project as such. The main insight was that the original emphasis on cost-benefit analysis of security protection measures was to early to address in the project. This issue is of course crucial in itself but requires new models of consequence analysis that still remains to be developed, especially for the new business models we are investigated in the CRISP project. The updated and approved version of the WP1.6 description, together with the also updated WP2.4 focus on Dependable ICT support of Power Grid Operations constitutes an integrated approach towards dependable and secure future utilities and their business processes. This document (D1.6) is a background to deliverable D2.4. Together they provide a dependability and security framework to the three CRISP experiments in WP3

  20. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF COWPEA PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abba M. Wakili

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study employs a stochastic frontier production function analysis to examine the productivity and technical efficiency of cowpea production in Adamawa State, Nigeria and also to identify the factors affecting the technical inefficiency using farm level survey data collected from 150 cowpea farmers selected using multi stage sampling technique. Findings from the analysis show that cowpea farmers operated on a very small scale and are profitable. The productivity analysis shows that agro chemicals, fertilizer, farm size and labor were all positively and significantly related to the technical efficiency. The return to scale (RTS of 0.9904 shows that cowpea production was in the rational stage of the production surface. The technical efficiency varies from 0.1094 to 0.9568 with a mean technical efficiency of 0.6649, indicating that farmers were operating below the efficiency frontier. Thus, in the short run, there is a scope to increase output by 34%. The inefficiency model revealed that education of the farmers; extension visits and access to credit are the main factors that affect technical efficiency of the farmers.

  1. Environmental Impact Assessment for Socio-Economic Analysis of Chemicals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Calow, Peter; Biddinger, G; Hennes, C

    This report describes the requirements for, and illustrates the application of, a methodology for a socio-economic analysis (SEA) especially as it might be adopted in the framework of REACH.......This report describes the requirements for, and illustrates the application of, a methodology for a socio-economic analysis (SEA) especially as it might be adopted in the framework of REACH....

  2. Thermo-economic analysis of Shiraz solar thermal power plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yaghoubi, M. [Academy of Science, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Mokhtari, A.; Hesami, R. [Shiraz Univ., Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of). School of Engineering

    2007-07-01

    The Shiraz solar thermal power plant in Iran has 48 parabolic trough collectors (PTCs) which are used to heat the working oil. There is potential to significantly increase the performance and reduce the cost of PTC solar thermal electric technologies. Conventional energy analysis based on the first law of thermodynamics does qualitatively assess the various losses occurring in the components. Therefore, exergy analysis, based on the second law of thermodynamics, can be applied to better assess various losses quantitatively as well as qualitatively. This paper presented a newly developed exergy-economic model for the Shiraz solar thermal power plant. The objective was to find the minimum exergetic production cost (EPC), based on the second law of thermodynamics. The application of exergy-economic analysis includes the evaluation of utility supply costs for production plants, and the energy costs for process operations. The purpose of the analysis was to minimize the total operating costs of the solar thermal power plant by assuming a fixed rate of electricity production and process steam. 21 refs., 3 tabs., 8 figs.

  3. An approach for economic analysis of intermodal transportation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahin, Bahri; Yilmaz, Huseyin; Ust, Yasin; Guneri, Ali Fuat; Gulsun, Bahadir; Turan, Eda

    2014-01-01

    A different intermodal transportation model based on cost analysis considering technical, economical, and operational parameters is presented. The model consists of such intermodal modes as sea-road, sea-railway, road-railway, and multimode of sea-road-railway. A case study of cargo transportation has been carried out by using the suggested model. Then, the single road transportation mode has been compared to intermodal modes in terms of transportation costs. This comparison takes into account the external costs of intermodal transportation. The research reveals that, in the short distance transportation, single transportation modes always tend to be advantageous. As the transportation distance gets longer, intermodal transportation advantages begin to be effective on the costs. In addition, the proposed method in this study leads to determining the fleet size and capacity for transportation and the appropriate transportation mode.

  4. An Approach for Economic Analysis of Intermodal Transportation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahin, Bahri; Ust, Yasin; Guneri, Ali Fuat; Gulsun, Bahadir; Turan, Eda

    2014-01-01

    A different intermodal transportation model based on cost analysis considering technical, economical, and operational parameters is presented. The model consists of such intermodal modes as sea-road, sea-railway, road-railway, and multimode of sea-road-railway. A case study of cargo transportation has been carried out by using the suggested model. Then, the single road transportation mode has been compared to intermodal modes in terms of transportation costs. This comparison takes into account the external costs of intermodal transportation. The research reveals that, in the short distance transportation, single transportation modes always tend to be advantageous. As the transportation distance gets longer, intermodal transportation advantages begin to be effective on the costs. In addition, the proposed method in this study leads to determining the fleet size and capacity for transportation and the appropriate transportation mode. PMID:25152919

  5. Tools for Economic Analysis of Patient Management Interventions in Heart Failure Cost-Effectiveness Model: A Web-based program designed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of disease management programs in heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Shelby D; Neilson, Matthew P; Gardner, Matthew; Li, Yanhong; Briggs, Andrew H; Polsky, Daniel E; Graham, Felicia L; Bowers, Margaret T; Paul, Sara C; Granger, Bradi B; Schulman, Kevin A; Whellan, David J; Riegel, Barbara; Levy, Wayne C

    2015-11-01

    Heart failure disease management programs can influence medical resource use and quality-adjusted survival. Because projecting long-term costs and survival is challenging, a consistent and valid approach to extrapolating short-term outcomes would be valuable. We developed the Tools for Economic Analysis of Patient Management Interventions in Heart Failure Cost-Effectiveness Model, a Web-based simulation tool designed to integrate data on demographic, clinical, and laboratory characteristics; use of evidence-based medications; and costs to generate predicted outcomes. Survival projections are based on a modified Seattle Heart Failure Model. Projections of resource use and quality of life are modeled using relationships with time-varying Seattle Heart Failure Model scores. The model can be used to evaluate parallel-group and single-cohort study designs and hypothetical programs. Simulations consist of 10,000 pairs of virtual cohorts used to generate estimates of resource use, costs, survival, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios from user inputs. The model demonstrated acceptable internal and external validity in replicating resource use, costs, and survival estimates from 3 clinical trials. Simulations to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of heart failure disease management programs across 3 scenarios demonstrate how the model can be used to design a program in which short-term improvements in functioning and use of evidence-based treatments are sufficient to demonstrate good long-term value to the health care system. The Tools for Economic Analysis of Patient Management Interventions in Heart Failure Cost-Effectiveness Model provides researchers and providers with a tool for conducting long-term cost-effectiveness analyses of disease management programs in heart failure. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Conceptual model of management steadfast economic development production-economic systems

    OpenAIRE

    Prokhorova, V.

    2010-01-01

    The article is devoted developments of conceptual model of management proof economic development of the industrialeconomy systems. Features are certain, the algorithm of impulse is offered and intercommunication of contours of management proof economic development of the industrialeconomy systems is investigational

  7. Balance of the uranium market. Contribution to an economic analysis. Vol. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehsani, J.

    1983-11-01

    The second volume of this thesis on the economic analysis of the uranium market contrains all the technical decriptions concerning reactors and fuel cycle and also detailed results of the two models on uranium supply and demand [fr

  8. Is our economic model compatible with sustainable development?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røpke, Inge

    2003-01-01

    The paper concerns the contradictions between sustainability and the present economic growth model. The discussion relates to the work of Jan Otto Andersson.......The paper concerns the contradictions between sustainability and the present economic growth model. The discussion relates to the work of Jan Otto Andersson....

  9. Static and dynamic models in economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safiullin, N. Z.; Safiullin, B. L.

    2018-05-01

    In this article, the authors consider the impact of information and advertising on consumer behavior and the process of producing differentiation formation. Advertising, television, radio, magazines and direct mail as major constraints of mass media may act as sources of information. Economic modernization is aimed at development of acceleration of the knowledge intensive industries, which contribute to Russia’s position in terms of the world economy; the recovering process of the Russian economic manufacturing base; development of import substitution industries and limited participation in international labor specialization.

  10. Modelling management process of key drivers for economic sustainability in the modern conditions of economic development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pishchulina E.S.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The text is about issues concerning the management of driver for manufacturing enterprise economic sustainability and manufacturing enterprise sustainability assessment as the key aspect of the management of enterprise economic sustainability. The given issues become topical as new requirements for the methods of manufacturing enterprise management in the modern conditions of market economy occur. An economic sustainability model that is considered in the article is an integration of enterprise economic growth, economic balance of external and internal environment and economic sustainability. The method of assessment of economic sustainability of a manufacturing enterprise proposed in the study allows to reveal some weaknesses in the enterprise performance, and untapped reserves, which can be further used to improve the economic sustainability and efficiency of the enterprise. The management of manufacturing enterprise economic sustainability is one of the most important factors of business functioning and development in modern market economy. The relevance of this trend is increasing in accordance with the objective requirements of the growing volumes of production and sale, the increasing complexity of economic relations, changing external environment of an enterprise.

  11. The Structured Intuitive Model for Product Line Economics (SIMPLE)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Clements, Paul C; McGregor, John D; Cohen, Sholom G

    2005-01-01

    .... This report presents the Structured Intuitive Model of Product Line Economics (SIMPLE), a general-purpose business model that supports the estimation of the costs and benefits in a product line development organization...

  12. Economic modeling and energy policy planning. [technology transfer, market research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, R. G.; Schwartz, A., Jr.; Lievano, R. J.; Stone, J. C.

    1974-01-01

    A structural economic model is presented for estimating the demand functions for natural gas and crude oil in industry and in steam electric power generation. Extensions of the model to other commodities are indicated.

  13. Economics In Optical Design, Analysis, And Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willey, Ronald R.

    1983-10-01

    There are indications that we are entering an era wherein economics will play an increasing role in the optical design and production process. Economics has always been a factor in the competition between commercial ventures in the product arena. Now, we may begin to see competition between different technologies for the scarce resources of the society, including money. A proper design approach begins with a thorough examination and refinement of the requirements from the top down. The interrelationships of the various components must be properly understood and balanced. The specifications must be clear, complete, and realistic. Improper or incomplete system design can cause an extensive waste of resources. The detail optical design to meet the performance requirements has sometimes been the only part of the process that the designer has considered his own responsibility. The final optimization should also consider economic related factors: the cost of tolerances, the available tools test plates, materials, and test equipment. In the preliminary design stage, he should have decided which alignment and test methods are most appropriate to the system. The distribution of tolerances in an optical/mechanical system is a frequently neglected opportunity to reduce cost. We have reported previously on our work in this area, and expand further on it in the context of this paper. The designer now has an opportunity to generate better designs at a lower cost that are more economical to produce. The watchword for the 1980's may become the one found in the assembly automation industry: "more, better, for less".

  14. Directors’ and Officers’ Liability: Economic Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P. C. Leyens (Patrick); M.G. Faure (Michael)

    2017-01-01

    markdownabstractThis paper will be published as a chapter of the forthcoming volume ‘Directors & Officers Liability’ edited by Simon F. Deakin, Helmut Koziol, and Olaf Riss. It explores D&O liability from a law and economics perspective with a view to identify trade-offs of different legal settings.

  15. Economic outcomes of maintenance gefitinib for locally advanced/metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer with unknown EGFR mutations: a semi-Markov model analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaohui Zeng

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Maintenance gefitinib significantly prolonged progression-free survival (PFS compared with placebo in patients from eastern Asian with locally advanced/metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC after four chemotherapeutic cycles (21 days per cycle of first-line platinum-based combination chemotherapy without disease progression. The objective of the current study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of maintenance gefitinib therapy after four chemotherapeutic cycle's stand first-line platinum-based chemotherapy for patients with locally advanced or metastatic NSCLC with unknown EGFR mutations, from a Chinese health care system perspective. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A semi-Markov model was designed to evaluate cost-effectiveness of the maintenance gefitinib treatment. Two-parametric Weibull and Log-logistic distribution were fitted to PFS and overall survival curves independently. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the stability of the model designed. The model base-case analysis suggested that maintenance gefitinib would increase benefits in a 1, 3, 6 or 10-year time horizon, with incremental $184,829, $19,214, $19,328, and $21,308 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY gained, respectively. The most sensitive influential variable in the cost-effectiveness analysis was utility of PFS plus rash, followed by utility of PFS plus diarrhoea, utility of progressed disease, price of gefitinib, cost of follow-up treatment in progressed survival state, and utility of PFS on oral therapy. The price of gefitinib is the most significant parameter that could reduce the incremental cost per QALY. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated that the cost-effective probability of maintenance gefitinib was zero under the willingness-to-pay (WTP threshold of $16,349 (3 × per-capita gross domestic product of China. The sensitivity analyses all suggested that the model was robust. CONCLUSIONS: Maintenance gefitinib

  16. ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF PEANUT PRODUCTION IN BULGARIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelly BENCHEVA

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Peanut is not listed as one of the major crops in the Bulgarian agricultural sector, but its economic and fi nancial viability is promising, but unknown. We use enterprise budgets, capital budgeting techniques, risk analysis and logistic regression models to examine the fi nancial and economic structure of peanut farms and to evaluate the factors infl uencing short and long-term profi tability. The results show that peanut production is a profi table venture for most peanut farmers in Bulgaria. Long-run analyses show that peanut production may be economically feasible and producers engaged in production for a period of seven years, and at a discount rate of 13%, may generate internal rates of return (IRR that vary from -20.57% to 67.39%. About 70% of the farms studied had IRRs greater than the discount rate. Sensitivity analyses show that profi tability of peanut production was infl uenced by yield and variable costs. There were risks at the village level associated with peanut production.

  17. Techno-Economic Analysis of Biofuels Production Based on Gasification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swanson, R. M.; Platon, A.; Satrio, J. A.; Brown, R. C.; Hsu, D. D.

    2010-11-01

    This study compares capital and production costs of two biomass-to-liquid production plants based on gasification. The first biorefinery scenario is an oxygen-fed, low-temperature (870?C), non-slagging, fluidized bed gasifier. The second scenario is an oxygen-fed, high-temperature (1,300?C), slagging, entrained flow gasifier. Both are followed by catalytic Fischer-Tropsch synthesis and hydroprocessing to naphtha-range (gasoline blend stock) and distillate-range (diesel blend stock) liquid fractions. Process modeling software (Aspen Plus) is utilized to organize the mass and energy streams and cost estimation software is used to generate equipment costs. Economic analysis is performed to estimate the capital investment and operating costs. Results show that the total capital investment required for nth plant scenarios is $610 million and $500 million for high-temperature and low-temperature scenarios, respectively. Product value (PV) for the high-temperature and low-temperature scenarios is estimated to be $4.30 and $4.80 per gallon of gasoline equivalent (GGE), respectively, based on a feedstock cost of $75 per dry short ton. Sensitivity analysis is also performed on process and economic parameters. This analysis shows that total capital investment and feedstock cost are among the most influential parameters affecting the PV.

  18. The BCD of response time analysis in experimental economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spiliopoulos, Leonidas; Ortmann, Andreas

    2018-01-01

    For decisions in the wild, time is of the essence. Available decision time is often cut short through natural or artificial constraints, or is impinged upon by the opportunity cost of time. Experimental economists have only recently begun to conduct experiments with time constraints and to analyze response time (RT) data, in contrast to experimental psychologists. RT analysis has proven valuable for the identification of individual and strategic decision processes including identification of social preferences in the latter case, model comparison/selection, and the investigation of heuristics that combine speed and performance by exploiting environmental regularities. Here we focus on the benefits, challenges, and desiderata of RT analysis in strategic decision making. We argue that unlocking the potential of RT analysis requires the adoption of process-based models instead of outcome-based models, and discuss how RT in the wild can be captured by time-constrained experiments in the lab. We conclude that RT analysis holds considerable potential for experimental economics, deserves greater attention as a methodological tool, and promises important insights on strategic decision making in naturally occurring environments.

  19. Economic management model of nuclear power plant research institute

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schultz, O.

    1993-01-01

    Brief information about the development of economic management and processing of economic information in the Nuclear Power Plants Research Institute Trnava is given in the paper. The existing economic management model of the Institute impacts positively the fulfillment of economic indicators. When applying this model, activities of individual divisions are emphasized and presentation of the Institute as a global professional capacity is suppressed. With regards to this influence, it will be necessary to look for such system elements that will impact the integrity of the Institute in the future period positively

  20. Models of the Economic Growth and their Relevance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae MOROIANU

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Until few years ago, the economic growth was something perfect normal, part of an era marked by the transformation speed. Normality itself has been transformed and we currently are influenced by other rules, unknown yet, which should answer the question: “How do we return to the economic growth?” The economic growth and the models aiming to solve this problem concern the economic history even since its beginnings. In this paper we would like to find out what is the relevance that the well-known macroeconomic models still have and which might be their applicability level in a framework created by a black swan event type.

  1. The economics of renewable electricity market integration. An empirical and model-based analysis of regulatory frameworks and their impacts on the power market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nicolosi, Marco

    2012-07-01

    As power systems increase in complexity due to higher shares of intermitting RES-E, so increase the requirements for power system modeling. This thesis shows empirically, with examples from Germany and Texas, that the increasing RES-E share strongly affects current power market operation. The markets further create price signals, which lead to system adaptations in the long-run. To get an estimate of the adaptation effects, 'The High Temporal Resolution Electricity Market Analysis Model' (THEA) has been developed. In a first application for the ERCOT market in Texas, particular model attributes are tested and compared to some complexity reducing approaches, i.e. the reduction of temporal resolution and the reduction of operational constraints. In both cases, the results show significant differences compared to the results when the full spectrum of THEA's capabilities is utilized. The ERCOT case study additionally shows that the adaptation to RES-E in an isolated, mainly thermal-based power system is quite severe. Market signals which underline this conclusion are the severely reduced value of wind energy, the increasing curtailment and the strong shift towards peak-oriented generating capacities. The second application of THEA models the German power market with its interconnected markets. This analysis increases the complexity significantly by modeling a well interconnected system, increasing the amount of different RES-E technologies and adding CAES investment options. In order to assess the impact on the different system component's supply, demand and grid infrastructure, specific measures are applied to compare several scenarios. Each scenario represents a policy option, which either reduces or increases the flexibility of the power system. The scenario comparisons capture the effects of a lower RES-E share, a larger baseload capacity fleet, higher interconnector capacities, various RES-E support scheme designs and the capability of RES-E to

  2. An evaluation of energy-environment-economic efficiency for EU, APEC and ASEAN countries: Design of a Target-Oriented DFM model with fixed factors in Data Envelopment Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Soushi; Nijkamp, Peter

    2016-01-01

    This paper aims to offer an advanced assessment methodology for sustainable national energy-environment-economic efficiency strategies, based on an extended Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The use of novel efficiency-improving approaches based on DEA originates from the so-called Distance Friction Minimisation (DFM) method. To design a feasible improvement strategy for low-efficiency DMUs, we develop here a Target-Oriented (TO) DFM model. However, in many real-world cases input factors may not be flexibly adjusted in the short run. In this study, we integrate the TO-DFM model with a fixed (inflexible) factor (FF) approach to cope with such more realistic circumstances. Super-efficiency DEA is next used in our comparative study on the efficiency assessment of energy-environment-economic targets for the EU, APEC and ASEAN (A&A) countries, employing appropriate data sets from the years 2003 to 2012. We consider two inputs (primary energy consumption and population) and two outputs (CO 2 and GDP), including a fixed input factor (viz. population). On the basis of our DEA analysis results, EU countries appear to exhibit generally a higher efficiency than A&A countries. The above-mentioned TO-DFM-FF projection model is able to address realistic circumstances and requirements in an operational sustainability strategy for efficiency improvement in inefficient countries in the A&A region. - Highlights: • We examine energy-environment-economic efficiency in European and A&A countries. • We present an operational efficiency improvement strategy using DEA. • European countries tend to have higher energy efficiency than A&A countries. • The study provides efficiency-enhancing strategic paths for inefficient countries.

  3. [Decision modeling for economic evaluation of health technologies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Soárez, Patrícia Coelho; Soares, Marta Oliveira; Novaes, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh

    2014-10-01

    Most economic evaluations that participate in decision-making processes for incorporation and financing of technologies of health systems use decision models to assess the costs and benefits of the compared strategies. Despite the large number of economic evaluations conducted in Brazil, there is a pressing need to conduct an in-depth methodological study of the types of decision models and their applicability in our setting. The objective of this literature review is to contribute to the knowledge and use of decision models in the national context of economic evaluations of health technologies. This article presents general definitions about models and concerns with their use; it describes the main models: decision trees, Markov chains, micro-simulation, simulation of discrete and dynamic events; it discusses the elements involved in the choice of model; and exemplifies the models addressed in national economic evaluation studies of diagnostic and therapeutic preventive technologies and health programs.

  4. Global economic activity and crude oil prices. A cointegration analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He, Yanan; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, Kin Keung

    2010-01-01

    This paper empirically investigates the cointegrating relationship between crude oil prices and global economic activity. The Kilian economic index is used as an indicator of global economic activity. Based on a supply-demand framework and the cointegration theory, we find that real futures prices of crude oil are cointegrated with the Kilian economic index and a trade weighted US dollar index, and crude oil prices are influenced significantly by fluctuations in the Kilian economic index through both long-run equilibrium conditions and short-run impacts. We also develop an empirically stable, data-coherent and single-equation error-correction model (ECM) which has sensible economic properties. Empirical results based on the ECM show that the adjustment implied by a permanent change in the Kilian economic index is a relatively drawn-out process. (author)

  5. Direct regional energy/economic modeling (DREEM) design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hall, P.D.; Pleatsikas, C.J.

    1979-10-01

    This report summarizes an investigation into the use of regional and multiregional economic models for estimating the indirect and induced impacts of Federally-mandated energy policies. It includes an examination of alternative types of energy policies that can impact regional economies and the available analytical frameworks for measuring the magnitudes and spatial extents of these impacts. One such analytical system, the National Regional Impact Evaluation System (NRIES), currently operational in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), is chosen for more detailed investigation. The report summarizes the models capabilities for addressing various energy policy issues and then demonstrates the applicability of the model in specified contexts by developing appropriate input data for three scenarios. These scenarios concern the multi-state impacts of alternative coal-mining-development decisions, multi-regional impacts of macroeconomic change, and the comprehensive effects of an alternative national energy supply trajectory. On the basis of this experience, the capabilities of NRIES for analyzing energy-policy issues are summarized in a concluding chapter.

  6. Mathematical model comparing of the multi-level economics systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brykalov, S. M.; Kryanev, A. V.

    2017-12-01

    The mathematical model (scheme) of a multi-level comparison of the economic system, characterized by the system of indices, is worked out. In the mathematical model of the multi-level comparison of the economic systems, the indicators of peer review and forecasting of the economic system under consideration can be used. The model can take into account the uncertainty in the estimated values of the parameters or expert estimations. The model uses the multi-criteria approach based on the Pareto solutions.

  7. Economic analysis of wood energy valorization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fries, Juliana.

    1988-01-01

    Companies linked to the lumber activities began to concern about the valorization of their industrial residues: either by creating new products or by utilizing them for energy generation. At the same time, companies from other sectors began investing in reforestations dedicated to energy generation (mainly eucalyptus), induced by the possibility of obtaining tax incentives and by the need of assuring their own provisions of wood, thus minimizing this raw-material, as well as its sensibility to the variation of its price in the market. However almost nothing have been researched, either about the economical feasibility of energetic valorization of the lumber in the form of industrial residues or as wood supplied by reforestation dedicated to energy generation. This dissertation propose to examine those cases analysing the concerned costs and their economical feasibility. (author). 20 refs., 19 figs., 32 tabs

  8. Economic Analysis of Social Common Capital

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uzawa, Hirofumi

    2005-06-01

    Social common capital provides members of society with those services and institutional arrangements that are crucial in maintaining human and cultural life. The term æsocial common capital' is comprised of three categories: natural capital, social infrastructure, and institutional capital. Natural capital consists of all natural environment and natural resources including the earth's atmosphere. Social infrastructure consists of roads, bridges, public transportation systems, electricity, and other public utilities. Institutional capital includes hospitals, educational institutions, judicial and police systems, public administrative services, financial and monetary institutions, and cultural capital. This book attempts to modify and extend the theoretical premises of orthodox economic theory to make them broad enough to analyze the economic implications of social common capital. It further aims to find the institutional arrangements and policy measures that will bring about the optimal state of affairs.

  9. Comparative economic analysis: Anaerobic digester case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lusk, P.D.

    1991-01-01

    An economic guide is developed to assess the value of anaerobic digesters used on dairy farms. Two varieties of anaerobic digesters, a conventional mixed-tank mesophilic and an innovative earthen psychrophilic, are comparatively evaluated using a cost-effectiveness index. The two case study examples are also evaluated using three other investment merit statistics: simple payback period, net present value, and internal rate of return. Life-cycle savings are estimated for both varieties, with sensitivities considered for investment risk. The conclusion is that an earthen psychrophilic digester can have a significant economic advantage over a mixed-tank mesophilic digester because of lower capital cost and reduced operation and maintenance expenses. Because of this economic advantage, additional projects are being conducted in North Carolina to increase the rate of biogas utilization. The initial step includes using biogas for milk cooling at the dairy farm where the existing psychrophilic digester is located. Further, a new project is being initiated for electricity production with thermal reclaim at a swine operation

  10. Agent-based models in economics a toolkit

    CERN Document Server

    Fagiolo, Giorgio; Gallegati, Mauro; Richiardi, Matteo; Russo, Alberto

    2018-01-01

    In contrast to mainstream economics, complexity theory conceives the economy as a complex system of heterogeneous interacting agents characterised by limited information and bounded rationality. Agent Based Models (ABMs) are the analytical and computational tools developed by the proponents of this emerging methodology. Aimed at students and scholars of contemporary economics, this book includes a comprehensive toolkit for agent-based computational economics, now quickly becoming the new way to study evolving economic systems. Leading scholars in the field explain how ABMs can be applied fruitfully to many real-world economic examples and represent a great advancement over mainstream approaches. The essays discuss the methodological bases of agent-based approaches and demonstrate step-by-step how to build, simulate and analyse ABMs and how to validate their outputs empirically using the data. They also present a wide set of applications of these models to key economic topics, including the business cycle, lab...

  11. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VAT EVOLUTION IN THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MIHAELA ANDREEA STROE

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we study a comparative analysis of VAT in different states of the world. I made some observation on this theme because I believe that VAT is very important in carrying out transactions and the increase or decrease of this tax has a major impact upon national economies and also on the quality of life in developing countries. The papers has to pourpose to make a comparison between the American and European system of taxation with its advantages and disadvantages and, in the end to render an economic model and its statistics components. VAT is a value added tax which appeared about 50 years, initially with two purposes: one to replace certain indirect taxes, and another to reduce the budget deficit according to the faith of that time. The first country that has adopted this model was France, calling it today as value-added tax.

  12. An Economic Analysis of Identity and Career Choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Humlum, Maria Knoth; Kleinjans, Kristin J.; Nielsen, Helena Skyt

    2007-01-01

    Standard economic models which focus on pecuniary payoffs cannot explain why there are highly able individuals who choose careers with low pecuniary re- turns. Therefore, financial incentives are unlikely to be effective in influencing career choices of these individuals. Based on Akerlof...... and Kranton (2000), we con- sider a model of career choice and identity where individuals derive non-pecuniary identity payoffs. Using factor analysis on a range of attitude questions, we find two factors related to identity (career orientation and social orientation), which are important for educational...... choices. The implication is that policymakers and institutions of higher education need to focus on identity related issues rather than just improved financial incentives if they aim at attracting the high ability youth to occupations with excess demand for labor....

  13. Analysis of the Components of Economic Potential of Agricultural Enterprises

    OpenAIRE

    Vyacheslav Skobara; Volodymyr Podkopaev

    2014-01-01

    Problems of efficiency of enterprises are increasingly associated with the use of the economic potential of the company. This article addresses the structural components of the economic potential of agricultural enterprise, development and substantiation of the model of economic potential with due account of the peculiarities of agricultural production. Based on the study of various approaches to the potential structure established is the definition of of production, labour, financial and man...

  14. Fuel modelling and its economical competitiveness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marino, A.C.; Savino, E.J.

    1996-01-01

    Due to reasons of economical competitiveness, there is at present a strong need in the nuclear industry to improve fuel performance under more demanding operating conditions, such as those resulting from an extended burnup. This requires a good understanding of the properties of fuel rod materials and their in-service performance. As it can be easily foreseen, thermal, mechanical and microstructural irradiation effects are strongly interrelated while the fuel is at reactor operating conditions. (author). 7 refs., 16 figs

  15. Fundamental principles of conducting a surgery economic analysis study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotsis, Sandra V; Chung, Kevin C

    2010-02-01

    The use of economic evaluation in surgery is scarce. Economic evaluation is used even less so in plastic surgery, in which health-related quality of life is of particular importance. This article, part of a tutorial series on evidence-based medicine, focuses on the fundamental principles of conducting a surgery economic analysis. The authors include the essential aspects of conducting a surgical cost-utility analysis by considering perspectives, costs, outcomes, and utilities. The authors also describe and give examples of how to conduct the analyses (including calculating quality-adjusted life-years and discounting), how to interpret the results, and how to report the results. Although economic analyses are not simple to conduct, a well-conducted one provides many rewards, such as recommending the adoption of a more effective treatment. For comparing and interpreting economic analysis publications, it is important that all studies use consistent methodology and report the results in a similar manner.

  16. Environmental problems and economic development in an endogenous fertility model

    OpenAIRE

    Frank Joest; Martin Quaas; Johannes Schiller

    2006-01-01

    Population growth is often viewed as a most oppressive global problem with respect to environmental deterioration, but the relationships between population development, economic dynamics and environmental pollution are complex due to various feedback mechanisms. We analyze society’s economic decisions on birth rates, investment into human and physical capital, and polluting emissions within an optimal control model of the coupled demographic-economic-environmental system. We show that a long-...

  17. Sustainability and economics: The Adirondack Park experience, a forest economic-ecological model, and solar energy policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Jon David

    The long-term sustainability of human communities will depend on our relationship with regional environments, our maintenance of renewable resources, and our successful disengagement from nonrenewable energy dependence. This dissertation investigates sustainability at these three levels, following a critical analysis of sustainability and economics. At the regional environment level, the Adirondack Park of New York State is analyzed as a potential model of sustainable development. A set of initial and ongoing conditions are presented that both emerge from and support a model of sustainability in the Adirondacks. From these conditions, a clearer picture emerges of the definition of regional sustainability, consequences of its adoption, and lessons from its application. Next, an economic-ecological model of the northern hardwood forest ecosystem is developed. The model integrates economic theory and intertemporal ecological concepts, linking current harvest decisions with future forest growth, financial value, and ecosystem stability. The results indicate very different economic and ecological outcomes by varying opportunity cost and ecosystem recovery assumptions, and suggest a positive benefit to ecological recovery in the forest rotation decision of the profit maximizing manager. The last section investigates the motives, economics, and international development implications of renewable energy (specifically photovoltaic technology) in rural electrification and technology transfer, drawing on research in the Dominican Republic. The implications of subsidizing a photovoltaic market versus investing in basic research are explored.

  18. Epidemiological and Economic Impact of Monovalent and Pentavalent Rotavirus Vaccines in Low and Middle Income Countries: A Cost-effectiveness Modeling Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paternina-Caicedo, Angel; De la Hoz-Restrepo, Fernando; Alvis-Guzmán, Nelson

    2015-07-01

    The competing choices of vaccination with either RV1 or RV5, the potential budget impact of vaccines on the EPI with different prices and new evidence make important an updated analysis for health decision makers in each country. The objective of this study is to assess cost-effectiveness of the monovalent and pentavalent rotavirus vaccines and impact on children deaths, inpatient and outpatient visits in 116 low and middle income countries that represent approximately 99% of rotavirus mortality. A decision tree model followed hypothetical cohorts of children from birth up to 5 years of age for each country in 2010. Inputs were gathered from international databases and previous research on incidence and effectiveness of monovalent and pentavalent vaccines. Costs were expressed in 2010 international dollars. Outcomes were reported in terms of cost per disability-adjusted life-year averted, comparing no vaccination with either monovalent or pentavalent mass introduction. Vaccine price was assumed fixed for all world low-income and middle-income countries. Around 292,000 deaths, 3.34 million inpatient cases and 23.09 million outpatient cases would occur with no vaccination. In the base-case scenario, monovalent vaccination would prevent 54.7% of inpatient cases and 45.4% of deaths. Pentavalent vaccination would prevent 51.4% of inpatient cases and 41.1% of deaths. The vaccine was cost-effective in all world countries in the base-case scenario for both vaccines. Cost per disability-adjusted life-year averted in all selected countries was I$372 for monovalent, and I$453 for pentavalent vaccination. Rotavirus vaccine is cost-effective in most analyzed countries. Despite cost-effectiveness analysis is a useful tool for decision making in middle-income countries, for low-income countries health decision makers should also assess the impact of introducing either vaccine on local resources and budget impact analysis of vaccination.

  19. Thermodynamics and process analysis for future economic scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ayres, R.U.

    1995-01-01

    Economists are increasingly interested in forecasting future costs and benefits of policies for dealing with materials/energy fluxes, polluting emissions and environmental impacts on various scales, from sectoral to global. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are currently popular because they project demand and industrial structure into the future, along an equilibrium path. But they are applicable only to the extent that structural changes occur in or near equilibrium, independent of radical technological (or social) change. The alternative tool for analyzing economic implications of scenario assumptions is to use Leontief-type Input-Output (I-O) models. I-O models are unable to endogenize structural shifts (changing I-O coefficients). However, this can be a virtue when considering radical rather than incremental shifts. Postulated I-O tables can be used independently to check the internal consistency of scenarios. Or I-O models can be used to generate scenarios by linking them to econometric 'macro-drivers' (which can, in principle, be CGE models). Explicit process analysis can be integrated, in principle, with I-O models. This hybrid scheme provides a natural means of satisfying physical constraints, especially the first and second laws of thermodynamics. This is important, to avoid constructing scenarios based on physically impossible processes. Process analysis is really the only available tool for constructing physically plausible alternative future I-O tables, and generating materials/energy and waste emissions coefficients. Explicit process analysis also helps avoid several problems characteristic of 'pure' CGE or I-O models, viz. (1) aggregation errors (2) inability to handle arbitrary combinations of co-product and co-input relationships and (3) inability to reflect certain non-linearities such as internal feedback loops. 4 figs., 2 tabs., 38 refs

  20. HTGR Application Economic Model Users' Manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A.M. Gandrik

    2012-01-01

    The High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) Application Economic Model was developed at the Idaho National Laboratory for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project. The HTGR Application Economic Model calculates either the required selling price of power and/or heat for a given internal rate of return (IRR) or the IRR for power and/or heat being sold at the market price. The user can generate these economic results for a range of reactor outlet temperatures; with and without power cycles, including either a Brayton or Rankine cycle; for the demonstration plant, first of a kind, or nth of a kind project phases; for up to 16 reactor modules; and for module ratings of 200, 350, or 600 MWt. This users manual contains the mathematical models and operating instructions for the HTGR Application Economic Model. Instructions, screenshots, and examples are provided to guide the user through the HTGR Application Economic Model. This model was designed for users who are familiar with the HTGR design and Excel and engineering economics. Modification of the HTGR Application Economic Model should only be performed by users familiar with the HTGR and its applications, Excel, and Visual Basic.

  1. Modeling economic and carbon consequences of a shift to wood-based energy in a rural 'cluster'; a network analysis in southeast Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Saah; Trista Patterson; Thomas Buchholz; David Ganz; David Albert; Keith. Rush

    2014-01-01

    Integrated ecological and economic solutions are increasingly sought after by communities to provide basic energy needs such as home heating, transport, and electricity, while reducing drivers of and vulnerability to climate change. Small rural communities may require a coordinated approach to overcome the limitations of economies of scale. Low-carbon development...

  2. Economic analysis of the potential impact of climate change on recreational trout fishing in the Southern Appalachian Mountains: An appication of a nested multinomial logti model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soeun Ahn; Joseph E. de Steiguer; Raymond B. Palmquist; Thomas P. Holmes

    2000-01-01

    Global warming due to the enhanced greenhouse effect through human activities has become a major public policy issue in recent years. The present study focuses on the potential economic impact of climate change on recreational trout fishing in the Southern Appalachian Mountains of North Carolina. Significant reductions in trout habitat and/or populations are...

  3. Models of economic geography: dynamics, estimation and policy evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Knaap, Thijs

    2004-01-01

    In this thesis we look at economic geography models from a number of angles. We started by placing the theory in a context of preceding theories, both earlier work on spatial economics and other children of the monopolistic competition ‘revolution.’ Next, we looked at the theoretical properties of these models, especially when we allow firms to have different demand functions for intermediate goods. We estimated the model using a dataset on US states, and computed a number of counterfactuals....

  4. Moving forward socio-economically focused models of deforestation

    OpenAIRE

    DEZÉCACHE CAMILLE; SALLES JEAN-MICHEL; VIEILLEDENT GHISLAIN; HÉRAULT BRUNO

    2017-01-01

    While high resolution spatial variables contribute to a good fit of spatially-explicit deforestation models, socio-economic processes are often beyond the scope of these models. Such a low level of interest in the socio-economic dimension of deforestation limits the relevancy of these models for decision making and may be the cause of their failure to accurately predict observed deforestation trends in the medium term. This study aims to propose a flexible methodology for taking into account ...

  5. An economic analysis code used for PWR fuel cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Dingqin

    1989-01-01

    An economic analysis code used for PWR fuel cycle is developed. This economic code includes 12 subroutines representing vavious processes for entire PWR fuel cycle, and indicates the influence of the fuel cost on the cost of the electricity generation and the influence of individual process on the sensitivity of the fuel cycle cost

  6. Modelling Dynamics of Main Economic Indicators of an Enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sherstennykov Yurii V.

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The article develops an economic and mathematical model of dynamics of main economic indicators of an enterprise, reflected in six book-keeping accounts with consideration of logistics and interrelation with current market characteristics and needs of products consumers. It applies this model for a quantitative study of influence of an advertising campaign and seasonality upon quantitative indicators of economic activity of the enterprise. The enterprise operation programme includes internal financial and economic procedures, which ensure the production process, and also connection with suppliers and buyers (customers. When setting different initial conditions, it is possible to trace transitional processes and enterprise entering (under favourable conditions the stationary mode of operation or its laying-off (in case of insufficiency of circulating funds. The developed model contains many parameters, which allow not only study of dependence of enterprise operation on alteration of one of them but also optimisation of economic conditions of functioning.

  7. Dietary balanced protein in broiler chickens. 2. An economic analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eits, R.M.; Giesen, G.W.J.; Kwakkel, R.P.; Verstegen, M.W.A.; Hartog, den L.A.

    2005-01-01

    1. An economic model was developed that calculates economic optimal dietary balanced protein (DBP) contents for broiler chickens, based on performance input and prices of meat and feed. 2. Input on broiler responses to DBP content (growth rate, feed conversion, carcase yield and breast meat yield)

  8. Methods of economic analysis applied to fusion research. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    In this and previous efforts ECON has provided economic assessment of a fusion research program. This phase of study focused on two tasks, the first concerned with the economics of fusion in an economy that relies heavily upon synthetic fuels, and the second concerned with the overall economic effects of pursuing soft energy technologies instead of hard technologies. This report is organized in two parts, the first entitled An Economic Analysis of Coproduction of Fusion-Electric Energy and Other Products, and the second entitled Arguments Associated with the Choice of Potential Energy Futures

  9. Economic data used in working group 5 analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haffner, D.R.; Parker, M.B.

    1979-03-01

    This paper presents the economic data used in the detailed economic analysis carried out in the U.S. paper WG-40 and is also used to arrive at the economics conclusions in U.S. papers WG 5A-19 and WG 5A-22. The data base includes reactor characteristics for the standard, 15 percent improved and 30 percent improved LWR plus the FBR system characteristics, fuel cost data, reactor plant capital cost data, and economic data (debt rate, equity rate, fixed charge rate, etc.)

  10. Military construction program economic analysis manual: Sample economic analyses: Hazardous Waste Remedial Actions Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-12-01

    This manual enables the US Air Force to comprehensively and systematically analyze alternative approaches to meeting its military construction requirements. The manual includes step-by-step procedures for completing economic analyses for military construction projects, beginning with determining if an analysis is necessary. Instructions and a checklist of the tasks involved for each step are provided; and examples of calculations and illustrations of completed forms are included. The manual explains the major tasks of an economic analysis, including identifying the problem, selecting realistic alternatives for solving it, formulating appropriate assumptions, determining the costs and benefits of the alternatives, comparing the alternatives, testing the sensitivity of major uncertainties, and ranking the alternatives. Appendixes are included that contain data, indexes, and worksheets to aid in performing the economic analyses. For reference, Volume 2 contains sample economic analyses that illustrate how each form is filled out and that include a complete example of the documentation required

  11. Models of economic geography : dynamics, estimation and policy evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knaap, Thijs

    2004-01-01

    In this thesis we look at economic geography models from a number of angles. We started by placing the theory in a context of preceding theories, both earlier work on spatial economics and other children of the monopolistic competition ‘revolution.’ Next, we looked at the theoretical properties of

  12. ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY IN BROILERS FATTENING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. SABAU

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper aimed to analyze economic efficiency in broilers fattening . In this purpose , the study was carried out at Breading Prod Commercial Company, Giarmata, Timis County . The economic and financial results of two series of broilers fattening have been comparatively analyzed based on the following specific indicators variable costs ( one day chicken supply , medicines, disinfectants , veterinary services , straw bed, feeding, fuels, electricity , watering , labor force , fixed costs ( rent, interest, fixed assets depreciation , communication and other taxes , total production costs , cost per marketed broiler, cost per square meter , cost per kg live weight , gross margin , incomes ( incomes coming from marketed broilers and subsidies , profit, profit rate , profit per marketed broiler, profit per square meter, profit per kg live weight , costs to 1,000 incomes and incomes to 1,000 costs. This comparison proved that the higher the chickens series size , the higher costs and incomes . The both fatenning series have profitable but the series S2 registered lower financial performances .

  13. Basis of economic analysis of Czech firms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Chmelíková

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available When looking for connections between particular business’s activities, theory of financial management uses pyramidal system of indicators. The effectiveness of this tool is based on the appropriate choice of the top indicator. Its decomposition enables to manage firm’s processes from the bottommost organizational levels to the main firm’s mission with respect to the connections between par­ti­cu­lar processes. The aim of this paper was to identify appropriate indicator, which corresponds with creation of firm’s value and design its decomposition. To measure creation of firm’s value it is nowadays very popular to use indicator Economic Value Added (EVA. Though from the theoretical point of view EVA is seen as a superior performance metric, the results of some empirical studies do not support this claim. That is why the information content of EVA was controlled in the concrete conditions of Czech Economy within this article. The results showed eligibility of using EVA in Czech firms and enabled to choose it as the top indicator in the pyramidal system. Ambition of further research is to design a complex of indicators offering a comprehensive economic view on the firm’s per­for­man­ce.

  14. Modeling ecological and economic systems with STELLA : Part III

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Costanza, Robert; Voinov, Alexey

    2001-01-01

    This special issue contains a group of eight modeling studies covering a range of ecological and economic systems and problems. The models were all developed using Stella®, an icon-based software package specifically designed for dynamic systems modeling. Models included in the special issue were

  15. FISHRENT; Bio-economic simulation and optimisation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salz, P.; Buisman, F.C.; Soma, K.; Frost, H.; Accadia, P.; Prellezo, R.

    2011-01-01

    Key findings: The FISHRENT model is a major step forward in bio-economic model-ling, combining features that have not been fully integrated in earlier models: 1- Incorporation of any number of species (or stock) and/or fleets 2- Integration of simulation and optimisation over a period of 25 years 3-

  16. Scrutinizing The Epistemology of Islamic Economics: A Historical Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurizal Ismail

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The first International Conference on Islamic Economics was held in Makkah, in 1976. Economists, jurists and scholars met together to discuss issues of Muslim ummah. However, there was many books written related to Islamic economics in the history of Islamic civilization, especially in the period of Abbasid caliphate. The fact, development of knowledge in Islamic medieval had established the epistemology of Islamic economics itself. Moreover, the epistemology is a study of the theory of knowledge, the source of knowledge, the application of knowledge and limitation of knowledge. Therefore, this paper aims to explore the contribution of earlier Muslim thinkers to the source of Islamic economics and to identify the epistemology of Islamic economics as proposed by the Muslim thinkers in medieval period. As a result, this paper will propose the epistemology of Islamic economics by integrating Islamic heritage and modern economics that is not conflict with Islamic principles and values. To achieve its objectives; this study employs qualitative research by applying content and descriptive analysis. The finding of this study is that the earlier Muslim thinkers have contributed to the construction of epistemology in Islamic economics. Then, to construct the genuine of Islamic economics, tawhid must be put as a core of Islamic economic epistemology that directs the sources of knowledge which are rooted firstly from revealed and then rational knowledge by using appropriate methods.

  17. Computer models for economic and silvicultural decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosalie J. Ingram

    1989-01-01

    Computer systems can help simplify decisionmaking to manage forest ecosystems. We now have computer models to help make forest management decisions by predicting changes associated with a particular management action. Models also help you evaluate alternatives. To be effective, the computer models must be reliable and appropriate for your situation.

  18. An economic analysis methodology for project evaluation and programming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    Economic analysis is a critical component of a comprehensive project or program evaluation methodology that considers all key : quantitative and qualitative impacts of highway investments. It allows highway agencies to identify, quantify, and value t...

  19. Economic Analysis of Production of Essential Oil using Steam ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    acer

    Economic Analysis of Production of Essential Oil using. Steam Distillation ... The return on investment (ROI) was 125%, internal rate of return ... oils, over dependency on petrodollar and ... The steam may be obtained from external boiler or.

  20. Refurbishment of Railroad Crossties : A Technical and Economic Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    1977-12-01

    An analysis of the principal modes of failure for wooden railroad crossties was conducted and an evaluation of the technical and economic feasibility of refurbishing these ties was conducted. Among the principal modes of structural deterioration, onl...

  1. The Scrap Tire Problem: A Preliminary Economic Analysis (1985)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of the study was to conduct a preliminary economic analysis of the social benefits of EPA action to require more appropriate disposal of scrap tires versus the social costs of such an action.

  2. Economic analysis of locust bean processing and marketing in Iwo ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Economic analysis of locust bean processing and marketing in Iwo local government, Osun state. ... Majority (78.3%) of the processors and marketers were making profit; 95.0% operate ... EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT

  3. Economic Analysis Of Sesame Marketing In Jigawa State | Kudi ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Economic Analysis Of Sesame Marketing In Jigawa State. ... The paper examines the marketing channel, structure, conduct, performance and marketing margin and efficiency of sesame. A sample of ... EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT

  4. Economic Analysis Of Yam Marketing In Obubra Local Government ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Economic Analysis Of Yam Marketing In Obubra Local Government Area Of Cross River State, Nigeria. ... Characteristics of the sellers, marketing channels, marketing margin and efficiency were also ... EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT

  5. ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF THE BUILDINGS REHABILITATION SOLUTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    STAN IVAN F.E.

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper includes a simplified economical and financial analysis of the buildings rehabilitation solutions, for heating and lighting. The most important economic and financial indicators analyzed and determined are: economic return on investment and payback period of investment in dynamic form, net present value, and internal rate of return economic residual value of the investment on thermal insulation, building maintenance costs, energy costs. In order to reduce the electricity consumption: the methods consisted in replacing inefficient lighting with some efficient energy and for heat consumption: the proposed solution was building rehabilitation (exterior wall insulation, floor insulation board. The analysis consists in determining the economical and financial indicators before and after the building rehabilitation. The 3 rooms apartment is located in Craiova town, (wind zone IV, 2nd floor, orientation is S.

  6. Moving forward socio-economically focused models of deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezécache, Camille; Salles, Jean-Michel; Vieilledent, Ghislain; Hérault, Bruno

    2017-09-01

    Whilst high-resolution spatial variables contribute to a good fit of spatially explicit deforestation models, socio-economic processes are often beyond the scope of these models. Such a low level of interest in the socio-economic dimension of deforestation limits the relevancy of these models for decision-making and may be the cause of their failure to accurately predict observed deforestation trends in the medium term. This study aims to propose a flexible methodology for taking into account multiple drivers of deforestation in tropical forested areas, where the intensity of deforestation is explicitly predicted based on socio-economic variables. By coupling a model of deforestation location based on spatial environmental variables with several sub-models of deforestation intensity based on socio-economic variables, we were able to create a map of predicted deforestation over the period 2001-2014 in French Guiana. This map was compared to a reference map for accuracy assessment, not only at the pixel scale but also over cells ranging from 1 to approximately 600 sq. km. Highly significant relationships were explicitly established between deforestation intensity and several socio-economic variables: population growth, the amount of agricultural subsidies, gold and wood production. Such a precise characterization of socio-economic processes allows to avoid overestimation biases in high deforestation areas, suggesting a better integration of socio-economic processes in the models. Whilst considering deforestation as a purely geographical process contributes to the creation of conservative models unable to effectively assess changes in the socio-economic and political contexts influencing deforestation trends, this explicit characterization of the socio-economic dimension of deforestation is critical for the creation of deforestation scenarios in REDD+ projects. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Economic Analysis: An Approach to Provide Basic Guidance for Conducting and Reviewing Economic Analysis within the Venezuelan Navy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1986-06-01

    la Armada (EMGAR)-- Staff of the Navy ------------------------- 18 b. Direction de Presupuesto Programac ion Ecomica (DIPPE)-Direction of Budget and...Economic Programming -------------------- 18 c. Cornite De Programacion y Presupuesto (CPP)-- Programming and Budget Committee-----------18 3. Major...development. This analysis is included in the annual budget. b. Direction de Presupuesto Programaclon Ecomica (DIPPE)- Direction of Budget and Economic

  8. A thermo-economic analysis of the separation process of an ethylene plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yi, T.; Jan-Min, S.

    1989-01-01

    This study has established a model of thermo-economic balance for chemical processes. The general rules to form the exergy-price constraint equation and the equations of some major types of the units have been proposed. With this model, a thermo-economic analysis for the separation process of an Ethylene Plant has been studied. The paper has made an analysis for the effects of different boundary exergy prices on the process evaluation. The result shows that the thermo-economic analysis for a process, using the method advanced in here, merely depends on the process construction and the ratio of supplying exergy-prices. As soon as the ratio is well-matched, a similar analogic analysis may be set up for the same type of processes in different economic environments

  9. Standardization: using comparative maintenance costs in an economic analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Clark, Roger Nelson

    1987-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This thesis investigates the use of comparative maintenance costs of functionally interchangeable equipments in similar U.S. Navy shipboard applications in an economic analysis of standardization. The economics of standardization, life-cycle costing, and the Navy 3-M System are discussed in general. An analysis of 3-M System maintenance costs for a selected equipment, diesel engines, is conducted. The potential use of comparative ma...

  10. Large scale hydro-economic modelling for policy support

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Roo, Ad; Burek, Peter; Bouraoui, Faycal; Reynaud, Arnaud; Udias, Angel; Pistocchi, Alberto; Lanzanova, Denis; Trichakis, Ioannis; Beck, Hylke; Bernhard, Jeroen

    2014-05-01

    To support European Union water policy making and policy monitoring, a hydro-economic modelling environment has been developed to assess optimum combinations of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures for continental Europe. This modelling environment consists of linking the agricultural CAPRI model, the LUMP land use model, the LISFLOOD water quantity model, the EPIC water quality model, the LISQUAL combined water quantity, quality and hydro-economic model, and a multi-criteria optimisation routine. With this modelling environment, river basin scale simulations are carried out to assess the effects of water-retention measures, water-saving measures, and nutrient-reduction measures on several hydro-chemical indicators, such as the Water Exploitation Index (WEI), Nitrate and Phosphate concentrations in rivers, the 50-year return period river discharge as an indicator for flooding, and economic losses due to water scarcity for the agricultural sector, the manufacturing-industry sector, the energy-production sector and the domestic sector, as well as the economic loss due to flood damage. Recently, this model environment is being extended with a groundwater model to evaluate the effects of measures on the average groundwater table and available resources. Also, water allocation rules are addressed, while having environmental flow included as a minimum requirement for the environment. Economic functions are currently being updated as well. Recent development and examples will be shown and discussed, as well as open challenges.

  11. Bifurcations of a class of singular biological economic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Xue; Zhang Qingling; Zhang Yue

    2009-01-01

    This paper studies systematically a prey-predator singular biological economic model with time delay. It shows that this model exhibits two bifurcation phenomena when the economic profit is zero. One is transcritical bifurcation which changes the stability of the system, and the other is singular induced bifurcation which indicates that zero economic profit brings impulse, i.e., rapid expansion of the population in biological explanation. On the other hand, if the economic profit is positive, at a critical value of bifurcation parameter, the system undergoes a Hopf bifurcation, i.e., the increase of delay destabilizes the system and bifurcates into small amplitude periodic solution. Finally, by using Matlab software, numerical simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the results obtained here. In addition, we study numerically that the system undergoes a saddle-node bifurcation when the bifurcation parameter goes through critical value of positive economic profit.

  12. Eliciting expert opinion for economic models: an applied example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leal, José; Wordsworth, Sarah; Legood, Rosa; Blair, Edward

    2007-01-01

    Expert opinion is considered as a legitimate source of information for decision-analytic modeling where required data are unavailable. Our objective was to develop a practical computer-based tool for eliciting expert opinion about the shape of the uncertainty distribution around individual model parameters. We first developed a prepilot survey with departmental colleagues to test a number of alternative approaches to eliciting opinions on the shape of the uncertainty distribution around individual parameters. This information was used to develop a survey instrument for an applied clinical example. This involved eliciting opinions from experts to inform a number of parameters involving Bernoulli processes in an economic model evaluating DNA testing for families with a genetic disease, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. The experts were cardiologists, clinical geneticists, and laboratory scientists working with cardiomyopathy patient populations and DNA testing. Our initial prepilot work suggested that the more complex elicitation techniques advocated in the literature were difficult to use in practice. In contrast, our approach achieved a reasonable response rate (50%), provided logical answers, and was generally rated as easy to use by respondents. The computer software user interface permitted graphical feedback throughout the elicitation process. The distributions obtained were incorporated into the model, enabling the use of probabilistic sensitivity analysis. There is clearly a gap in the literature between theoretical elicitation techniques and tools that can be used in applied decision-analytic models. The results of this methodological study are potentially valuable for other decision analysts deriving expert opinion.

  13. SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS: METHODOLOGY AND APPLICATION TO ECONOMICS DATA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hossein HASSANI; Anatoly ZHIGLJAVSKY

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes the methodology of singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and demonstrate that it is a powerful method of time series analysis and forecasting, particulary for economic time series. The authors consider the application of SSA to the analysis and forecasting of the Iranian national accounts data as provided by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of lran.

  14. THE INSTANTANEOUS SPEED OF ADJUSTMENT ASSUMPTION AND STABILITY OF ECONOMIC-MODELS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    SCHOONBEEK, L

    In order to simplify stability analysis of an economic model one can assume that one of the model variables moves infinitely fast towards equilibrium, given the values of the other slower variables. We present conditions such that stability of the simplified model implies, or is implied by,

  15. Impacts of GDP, Fossil Fuel Energy Consumption, Energy Consumption Intensity, and Economic Structure on SO2 Emissions: A Multi-Variate Panel Data Model Analysis on Selected Chinese Provinces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haoran Zhao

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric pollution gradually become a focus of concern all over the world owing to its detrimental influence on human health as well as long range impact on global ecosystem. This paper investigated the relationship among SO2 emissions, GDP, fossil fuel energy consumption, energy consumption intensity, and economic structure of five provinces in China with the highest SO2 emissions spanning from 2002–2015 based on panel data model. Through comparatively analyzing the coefficients in the established panel data model for Hebei, Henan, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, and Shanxi, we can obtain that: (1 fossil fuel energy consumption made the most devotion to SO2 discharge compared with GDP, energy consumption intensity, and economic structure. And the more the fossil fuel energy consumption, the more the devotion made by it to SO2 discharge. (2 GDP devoted less to SO2 emissions than fossil fuel energy consumption, and the larger the scale of the economy, the greater the contribution made by it to SO2 emissions. (3 The higher the proportion of the secondary industry added value accounted in GDP, the more the devotion made by the economic structure and energy consumption intensity to SO2 emissions. Through analyzing the Granger causality examination results, it can be concluded that: (1 there existed a bi-directional causal relationship between fossil fuel energy consumption and SO2 emissions among five selected provinces. (2 There existed uni-directional causal nexus running from GDP to SO2 emissions, from energy consumption intensity to SO2 emissions, and from economic structure to SO2 emissions among five chosen provinces. Based on the empirical analysis, several policy implications were proposed to provide references for policy makers, which were (1 Giving full play to the guiding role of price signals, and improving the price policy for desulfurization. (2 Formulating a new comprehensive evaluation system to measure the regional development level

  16. "Economic microscope": The agent-based model set as an instrument in an economic system research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, D. B.; Zvereva, O. M.; Akenov, Serik

    2017-07-01

    To create a valid model of a social or economic system one must consider a lot of parameters, conditions and restrictions. Systems and, consequently, the corresponding models are proved to be very complicated. The problem of such system model engineering can't be solved only with mathematical methods usage. The decision could be found in computer simulation. Simulation does not reject mathematical methods, mathematical expressions could become the foundation for a computer model. In these materials the set of agent-based computer models is under discussion. All the set models simulate productive agents communications, but every model is geared towards the specific goal, and, thus, has its own algorithm and its own peculiarities. It is shown that computer simulation can discover new features of the agents' behavior that can not be obtained by analytical solvation of mathematical equations and thus plays the role of some kind of economic microscope.

  17. A Discrete Monetary Economic Growth Model with the MIU Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an alternative approach to economic growth with money. The production side is the same as the Solow model, the Ramsey model, and the Tobin model. But we deal with behavior of consumers differently from the traditional approaches. The model is influenced by the money-in-the-utility (MIU approach in monetary economics. It provides a mechanism of endogenous saving which the Solow model lacks and avoids the assumption of adding up utility over a period of time upon which the Ramsey approach is based.

  18. Background effects of emergencies on indicators of economic analysis of enterprise economic activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K.Yu. Polyak

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with the study of scientific works on the issue of formation and development of organizational and methodological regulations of accounting and analytical support of the economic activity of an enterprise in emergencies, which led to the conclusion about the complex character of the study of theory, methodology and economic analysis of enterprises in various sectors of national economy. The author studies the approaches to the nature and methods of economic analysis that resulted in the presentation of instructional techniques to the economic structure. In assessing the consequences of emergencies, it is necessary to determine their impact on the indices of economic analysis; so, there was the need to define areas resulting index changes as a result of emergency situations by identifying its components which may affect emergencies. After analyzing the data, it was found that the consequences of emergency situations affecting the indices of business analysis and can lead to changes in management decisions of internal and external users.

  19. Social and Economic Analysis Branch: integrating policy, social, economic, and natural science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuster, Rudy; Walters, Katie D.

    2015-01-01

    The Fort Collins Science Center's Social and Economic Analysis Branch provides unique capabilities in the U.S. Geological Survey by leading projects that integrate social, behavioral, economic, and natural science in the context of human–natural resource interactions. Our research provides scientific understanding and support for the management and conservation of our natural resources in support of multiple agency missions. We focus on meeting the scientific needs of the Department of the Interior natural resource management bureaus in addition to fostering partnerships with other Federal and State managers to protect, restore, and enhance our environment. The Social and Economic Analysis Branch has an interdisciplinary group of scientists whose primary functions are to conduct both theoretical and applied social science research, provide technical assistance, and offer training to support the development of skills in natural resource management activities. Management and research issues associated with human-resource interactions typically occur in a unique context and require knowledge of both natural and social sciences, along with the skill to integrate multiple science disciplines. In response to these challenging contexts, Social and Economic Analysis Branch researchers apply a wide variety of social science concepts and methods which complement our rangeland/agricultural, wildlife, ecology, and biology capabilities. The goal of the Social and Economic Analysis Branch's research is to enhance natural-resource management, agency functions, policies, and decisionmaking.

  20. End-of-Life Care Interventions: An Economic Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pham, B; Krahn, M

    2014-01-01

    The annual cost of providing care for patients in their last year of life is estimated to account for approximately 9% of the Ontario health care budget. Access to integrated, comprehensive support and pain/symptom management appears to be inadequate and inequitable. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of end-of-life (EoL) care interventions included in the EoL care mega-analysis. Multiple sources were used, including systematic reviews, linked health administration databases, survey data, planning documents, expert input, and additional literature searches. We conducted a literature review of cost-effectiveness studies to inform the primary economic analysis. We conducted the primary economic analysis and budget impact analysis for an Ontario cohort of decedents and their families and included interventions pertaining to team-based models of care, patient care planning discussions, educational interventions for patients and caregivers, and supportive interventions for informal caregivers. The time horizon was the last year of life. Costs were in 2013 Canadian dollars. Effectiveness measures included days at home, percentage dying at home, and quality-adjusted life-days. We developed a Markov model; model inputs were obtained from a cohort of Ontario decedents assembled from Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences databases and published literature. In-home palliative team care was cost-effective; it increased the chance of dying at home by 10%, increased the average number of days at home (6 days) and quality-adjusted life-days (0.5 days), and it reduced costs by approximately $4,400 per patient. Expanding in-home palliative team care to those currently not receiving such services (approximately 45,000 per year, at an annual cost of $76-108 million) is likely to improve quality of life, reduce the use of acute care resources, and save $191-$385 million in health care costs. Results for the other interventions were uncertain. The cost-effectiveness analysis was

  1. Economic openness and economic growth: A cointegration analysis for ASEAN-5 countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klimis Vogiatzoglou

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers three channels of economic openness, namely FDI, imports, and exports, and examines their short-run and long-run effects on the economic growth in the five founding member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN over the period from 1980 to 2014. Besides the impact on the economic growth, the authors analyze all possible causal interrelationships to discern patterns and directions of causality among FDI, imports, exports, and GDP. The quantitative analysis, which is based on the vector error correction co-integration framework, is conducted separately for each country in order to assess their individual experiences and allow for a comparative view. Although the precise details differ across countries, the findings indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic openness and GDP in all ASEAN-5 economies. FDI, imports and exports have a significantly positive short-run and long-run impact on the economic growth. Our results also show that export-led growth is the most important economic growth factor in most countries, followed by FDI-led growth. Another crucial finding is the bi-directional causality between exports and FDI across the ASEAN-5 countries. This indicates the presence of direct and indirect effects on GDP and a self-reinforcing process of causality between those two variables, which strengthens their impact on the economic growth.

  2. Economic analysis of the global polio eradication initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J; Pallansch, Mark A; Cochi, Stephen L; Wassilak, Steven G F; Linkins, Jennifer; Sutter, Roland W; Aylward, R Bruce; Thompson, Kimberly M

    2010-12-16

    The global polio eradication initiative (GPEI), which started in 1988, represents the single largest, internationally coordinated public health project to date. Completion remains within reach, with type 2 wild polioviruses apparently eradicated since 1999 and fewer than 2000 annual paralytic poliomyelitis cases of wild types 1 and 3 reported since then. This economic analysis of the GPEI reflects the status of the program as of February 2010, including full consideration of post-eradication policies. For the GPEI intervention, we consider the actual pre-eradication experience to date followed by two distinct potential future post-eradication vaccination policies. We estimate GPEI costs based on actual and projected expenditures and poliomyelitis incidence using reported numbers corrected for underreporting and model projections. For the comparator, which assumes only routine vaccination for polio historically and into the future (i.e., no GPEI), we estimate poliomyelitis incidence using a dynamic infection transmission model and costs based on numbers of vaccinated children. Cost-effectiveness ratios for the GPEI vs. only routine vaccination qualify as highly cost-effective based on standard criteria. We estimate incremental net benefits of the GPEI between 1988 and 2035 of approximately 40-50 billion dollars (2008 US dollars; 1988 net present values). Despite the high costs of achieving eradication in low-income countries, low-income countries account for approximately 85% of the total net benefits generated by the GPEI in the base case analysis. The total economic costs saved per prevented paralytic poliomyelitis case drive the incremental net benefits, which become positive even if we estimate the loss in productivity as a result of disability as below the recommended value of one year in average per-capita gross national income per disability-adjusted life year saved. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the finding of positive net benefits of the GPEI remains

  3. The science of ecological economics: a content analysis of Ecological Economics, 1989-2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luzadis, Valerie A; Castello, Leandro; Choi, Jaewon; Greenfield, Eric; Kim, Sung-kyun; Munsell, John; Nordman, Erik; Franco, Carol; Olowabi, Flavien

    2010-01-01

    The Ecological Economics journal is a primary source for inquiry on ecological economics and sustainability. To explore the scholarly pursuit of ecological economics, we conducted a content analysis of 200 randomly sampled research, survey, and methodological articles published in Ecological Economics during the 15-year period of 1989-2004. Results of the analysis were used to investigate facets of transdisciplinarity within the journal. A robust qualitative approach was used to gather and examine data to identify themes representing substantive content found within the span of sampled journal papers. The extent to which each theme was represented was counted as well as additional data, such as author discipline, year published, etc. Four main categories were revealed: (1) foundations (self-reflexive themes stemming from direct discussions about ecological economics); (2) human systems, represented by the themes of values, social indicators of well-being, intergenerational distribution, and equity; (3) biophysical systems, including themes, such as carrying capacity and scarcity, energy, and resource use, relating directly to the biophysical aspects of systems; and (4) policy and management encompassing themes of development, growth, trade, accounting, and valuation, as well as institutional structures and management. The results provide empirical evidence for discussing the future direction of ecological economic efforts.

  4. From partial to total economic analysis. Five applications to environmental and energy economics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffmann, T.

    2006-05-04

    The studies presented in this thesis address the consequences of market distortions of governmental policies - predominantly in the area of environmental and energy policy. The studies cover different economic aggregation levels: The first study aims at investigating firm-level effects. Thus, the results refer only to a small number of well-defined economic entities, e.g. electricity supply companies in Germany. Subsequently, issues - such as the evaluation of efficiency effects of the European Emissions Trading system - are addressed on a multi-sectoral and multi-regional level, but still only one market is considered. Thereupon, the scope of investigation is broadened by interactions of different markets - e.g. as in the case of the economic evaluation of renewable energy promotion strategies. Finally, a general equilibrium analysis of a European nuclear phase-out scenario covers all economic feed-backs on the national and international level. (orig.) 5.

  5. TECHNICAL AND ECONOMICAL ANALYSIS OF LOGGING CONTRACTORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abilio Donizetti de Morais Filho

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to describe the financial conditions of forestry contractors, concerning life quality aspects, condition of work and equipments, operational costs, and economic credit to invest in new technologies. Five companies had been analyzed, with an annual income between US$ 400,000.00 and US$ 1,720,000.00, with an average of US$ 950,000.00. The number of employees varied between 33 and 181, and the companies were classified in terms of size as: one small, two average, and two big. The main difficulties to invest in new machines were high financial taxes, more than 12% an year, and a lack of long term contracts to guarantee the payment capability. It was observed that the contractors did not consider the capital remuneration and a correct depreciation of machines, resulting in an average machine life higher than 10 years. The final conclusions were that the costs were above the paid values for the services, when computed the depreciation and capital remuneration, with negative results in the financial analyzes of three companies. Finally, the mechanization process increased the workers life quality, however, the annual income was around US$ 2,112.00 per worker, approximately 39% lower than the average Brazilian population.

  6. Economic analysis of nuclear power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Ki Dong; Lee, Han Myeong; Lee, Man Kee; Moon, Ki Hwan; Kim, Seung Soo; Kim, Seong Ki; Lee, Yeong Ki

    1993-12-01

    As CO 2 emission is recognized as the one of the major causes of the global worming, international CO 2 emission regulation has been of great concern and has been discussed actively on the global level. Several means of CO 2 emission regulation have been raised and have received much attention recently. CO 2 emission regulation is expected to affect the national economy as well as the national energy policy. Since the electricity sector closely interacts with CO 2 emission, environmental regulation has the possibility of implementation in this sector. Considering the enormous role played by electricity in the national economy, it is very important to study the effect of environmental regulation on the electricity sector. The main purpose of this study is to estimate the marginal cost of CO 2 emission by analyzing the effect of CO 2 emission regulation on the electricity sector in terms of capacity and generation mix. This information can be used effectively in energy policy establishment. In addition, the effect of CO 2 emission regulation on economic viability of electricity generating type is also being studied in order to contribute to the establishment of Electric System Expansion Planning in Korea

  7. Notes on economic time series analysis system theoretic perspectives

    CERN Document Server

    Aoki, Masanao

    1983-01-01

    In seminars and graduate level courses I have had several opportunities to discuss modeling and analysis of time series with economists and economic graduate students during the past several years. These experiences made me aware of a gap between what economic graduate students are taught about vector-valued time series and what is available in recent system literature. Wishing to fill or narrow the gap that I suspect is more widely spread than my personal experiences indicate, I have written these notes to augment and reor­ ganize materials I have given in these courses and seminars. I have endeavored to present, in as much a self-contained way as practicable, a body of results and techniques in system theory that I judge to be relevant and useful to economists interested in using time series in their research. I have essentially acted as an intermediary and interpreter of system theoretic results and perspectives in time series by filtering out non-essential details, and presenting coherent accounts of wha...

  8. Complexity and the culture of economics: a sociological and inter-disciplinary analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hendrik Van den Berg

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper offers a sociological explanation for why the field of economics has so severely restricted the scope of its analysis to the point where it failed to foresee the financial crises, economic recessions, and other large shifts in economic activity that have characterized the global economy in recent decades. This paper’s analysis of the culture of economics draws heavily on the work of Pierre Bourdieu, the French sociologist who developed a useful framework with which to analyze the culture of an intellectual field like economics. Specifically, the paper describes how the neo-liberal doxa supports the restrictive neoclassical (marginalist modeling approach that is a central element of the habitus of mainstream economics. Bourdieu’s concept of symbolic violence shows how the orthodox economics culture perpetuates itself even in the face of the complete failure of the culture’s favored neoclassical and rational expectations models to anticipate recent macroeconomic crises. The paper concludes with some thoughts on how this understanding of the culture of economics can enable economists to free themselves from the oppressive culture of mainstream economics.

  9. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Grames

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy and water. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre et al., 2013; Viglione et al., 2014. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. In order to build this first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events, we transform an existing descriptive stochastic model into an optimal deterministic model. The intermediate step is to formulate and simulate a descriptive deterministic model. We develop a periodic water function to approximate the former discrete stochastic time series of rainfall events. Due to the non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function the long-term path of consumption and investment will be periodic.

  10. Probabilistic economic analysis of green roof benefits for policy design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, C.; Adriaens, P.; Talbot, B.

    2006-01-01

    The installation costs of green roofs continue to deter widespread use of green roof technology. Analyses of the boundary conditions for the cost differential between a green roof and a conventional roof are usually compared to environmental benefits such as storm water reduction and building energy savings. However, evidence is emerging that green roofs may play a role in urban air quality improvement. This paper discussed a methodology for developing probabilistic ranges of benefits and cost analyses. A probabilistic analysis was conducted to prepare a generalized cost-benefit analysis for application to a range of green roof projects. Environmental benefits of roof greening were quantified on a per unit surface area to assess environmental impact at the building scale. Parameters included conventional and green roof installation costs; storm water fees and fee reductions for green roofs; energy costs due to heat flux and the resultant savings through the installation of a green roof and the additional economic valuation of the public health benefits due to air pollution mitigation. Results were then integrated into an economic model to determine the length of time required for a return on investment in a green roof, assuming that a traditional roof would require replacement after 20 years. A net present value analysis was performed for an average-sized university roof. Results of the study showed that a valuation of environmental benefits can reduce the time required for a return on investment in a moderately priced green roof. While reduced installation costs reduced the time required for a return on investment, optimizing the green roof system for maximum environmental benefit had a greater potential to provide a higher return. It was concluded that the benefit of improved air quality should not be ignored by green roof policy-makers as a valuation tool. 10 refs., 3 tabs., 1 fig

  11. Economic analysis of alternative LLW disposal methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foutes, C.E.

    1987-01-01

    The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has evaluated the costs and benefits of alternative disposal technologies as part of its program to develop generally applicable environmental standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste (LLW). Costs, population health effects and Critical Population Group (CPG) exposures resulting from alternative waste treatment and disposal methods were developed and input into the analysis. The cost-effectiveness analysis took into account a number of waste streams, hydrogeologic and climatic region settings, and waste treatment and disposal methods. Total costs of each level of a standard included costs for packaging, processing, transportation, and burial of waste. Benefits are defined in terms of reductions in the general population health risk (expected fatal cancers and genetic effects) evaluated over 10,000 years. A cost-effectiveness ratio, was calculated for each alternative standard. This paper describes the alternatives considered and preliminary results of the cost-effectiveness analysis

  12. Econometric modelling of economic security in business operations management

    OpenAIRE

    Chagovets, L. О.; Nevezhin, V. P.; Zakharova, О. V.

    2014-01-01

    The article deals with econometric modeling of economic security. The model of evaluating transaction costs effect on the level of enterprise economic security is provided. The econometric models of evaluating economic security that are used in research are based on panel data. According to the results, the reserves for increasing the general level of economic security due to transaction costs reduction are revealed. Розглянуто питання економетричного моделювання економічної безпеки. Предс...

  13. Economic Analysis in Series-Distillation Desalination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirna Rahmah Lubis

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The ability to produce potable water economically is the primary purpose of seawater desalination research. Reverse osmosis (RO and multi-stage flash (MSF cost more than potable water produced from fresh water resources. Therefore, this research investigates a high-efficiency mechanical vapor-compression distillation system that employs an improved water flow arrangement. The incoming salt concentration was 0.15% salt for brackish water and 3.5% salt for seawater, whereas the outgoing salt concentration was 1.5% and 7%, respectively. Distillation was performed at 439 K and 722 kPa for both brackish water feed and seawater feed. Water costs of the various conditions were calculated for brackish water and seawater feeds using optimum conditions considered as 25 and 20 stages, respectively. For brackish water at a temperature difference of 0.96 K, the energy requirement is 2.0 kWh/m3. At this condition, the estimated water cost is $0.39/m3 achieved with 10,000,000 gal/day distillate, 30-year bond, 5% interest rate, and $0.05/kWh electricity. For seawater at a temperature difference of 0.44 K, the energy requirement is 3.97 kWh/m3 and the estimated water cost is $0.61/m3. Greater efficiency of the vapor compression system is achieved by connecting multiple evaporators in series, rather than the traditional parallel arrangement. The efficiency results from the gradual increase of salinity in each stage of the series arrangement in comparison to parallel. Calculations using various temperature differences between boiling brine and condensing steam show the series arrangement has the greatest improvement at lower temperature differences. Keywords: desalination, dropwise condensation, mechanical-vapor compression

  14. Optimal model of economic diplomacy of Republic of Croatia in the contexst of global intelligence revolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zdravko Bazdan

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to point to the fact that economic diplomacy is a relatively new practice in international economics, specifically the expansion of the occurrence of Intelligence Revolution. The history in global relations shows that without economic diplomacy there is no optimal economic growth and social development. It is important to note that economic diplomacy should be important for our country and the political elite, as well as for the administration of Croatian economic subjects that want to compete in international market economy. Comparative analysis are particularly highlighted by French experience. Therefore, Croatia should copy the practice of those countries that are successful in economic diplomacy. And in the curricula - especially of our economic faculties - we should introduce the course of Economic Diplomacy. It is important to note, that in order to form our optimal model of economic diplomacy which would be headed by the President of Republic of Croatia formula should be based on: Intelligence Security Agency (SOA, Intelligence Service of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European Integration, Intelligence Service of the Croatian Chamber of Commerce and the Intelligence Service of the Ministry of Economy, Labor and Entrepreneurship. Described model would consist of intelligence subsystem with at least twelve components.

  15. Techno-economic and life-cycle modeling and analysis of various energy storage technologies coupled with a solar photovoltaic array

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Brian Andrew

    Renewable energies, such as wind and solar, are a growing piece of global energy consumption. The chief motivation to develop renewable energy is two-fold: reducing carbon dioxide emissions and reducing dependence on diminishing fossil fuel supplies. Energy storage is critical to the growth of renewable energy because it allows for renewably-generated electricity to be consumed at times when renewable sources are unavailable, and it also enhances power quality (maintaining voltage and frequency) on an electric grid which becomes increasingly unstable as more renewable energy is added. There are numerous means of storing energy with different advantages, but none has emerged as the clear solution of choice for renewable energy storage. This thesis attempts to explore the current and developing state of energy storage and how it can be efficiently implemented with crystalline silicon solar photovotlaics, which has a minimum expected lifetime of 25 years assumed in this thesis. A method of uniformly comparing vastly different energy storage technologies using empirical data was proposed. Energy storage technologies were compared based on both economic valuation over the system life and cradle-to-gate pollution rates for systems with electrochemical batteries. For stationary, non-space-constrained settings, lead-acid batteries proved to be the most economical. Carbon-enhanced lead-acid batteries were competitive, showing promise as an energy storage technology. Lithium-ion batteries showed the lowest pollution rate of electrochemical batteries examined, but both lithium-ion and lead-acid batteries produce comparable carbon dioxide to coal-derived electricity.

  16. Declining national park visitation: An economic analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas H. Stevens; Thomas A. More; Marla. Markowski-Lindsay

    2014-01-01

    Visitation to the major nature-based national parks has been declining. This paper specifies an econometric model that estimates the relative impact of consumer incomes, travel costs, entry fees and other factors on per capita attendance from 1993 to 2010. Results suggest that entrance fees have had a statistically significant but small impact on per capita attendance...

  17. Economic Growth and the Environment. An empirical analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Bruyn, S.M.

    1999-12-21

    A number of economists have claimed that economic growth benefits environmental quality as it raises political support and financial means for environmental policy measures. Since the early 1990s this view has increasingly been supported by empirical evidence that has challenged the traditional belief held by environmentalists that economic growth degrades the environment. This study investigates the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality and elaborates the question whether economic growth can be combined with a reduced demand for natural resources. Various hypotheses on this relationship are described and empirically tested for a number of indicators of environmental pressure. The outcome of the tests advocates the use of alternative models for estimation that alter conclusions about the relationship between economic growth and the environment and give insight into the driving forces of emission reduction in developed economies. refs.

  18. The SocioEconomic analysis of repository siting (SEARS): Guide to data base preparation: Final draft

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamm, R.R.; Murdock, S.H.; Leistritz, F.L.; Kiel, B.; Parpia, B.

    1984-11-01

    This guide describes the data bases in the SocioEconomic Analysis of Repository Siting (SEARS) modeling system. This model is a user-interactive, computerized model for projecting the economic, demographic, public service, and fiscal impacts of repository siting. This guide provides a description of the data bases, sources of data, data formats, and preprocessing programs for adapting and implementing the SEARS system and is seen as an essential reference for technical users of the model. It should be used in conjunction with reports describing the model's features and characteristics. 95 refs., 3 tabs

  19. Economic MPC based on LPV model for thermostatically controlled loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zemtsov, Nikita; Hlava, Jaroslav; Frantsuzova, Galina

    2017-01-01

    Rapid increase of the renewable energy share in electricity production requires optimization and flexibility of the power consumption side. Thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) have a large potential for regulation service provision. Economic model predictive control (MPC) is an advanced...... control method which can be used to syncronize the power consumption with undispatchable renewable electricity production. Thermal behavior of TCLs can be described by linear models based on energy balance of the system. In some cases, parameters of the model may be time-varying. In this work, we present...... a modified economic MPC based on linear parameter-varying model. In particular, we provide an exact transformation from a standard economic MPC formulation to a linear program. We assume that the variables influencing the model parameters are known (predictable) for the prediction horizon of the controller...

  20. Economic analysis of radiodiagnostic equipment use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kochetova, G.P.; Turaev, R.N.

    1984-01-01

    The method for calculating costs for performing radiotdiagnostic investigation is suggested, analysis of structure of these costs and their dependence on output and working in shifts is given. As example the calculation of costs for performing radiodiagnostic investigations on gamma cameras with a computer and without it and on a scanner using fabricated radiopharmaceuticals and short-lived radionuclides. The developed technique for costs calculation for radiodignostic investigation permits to determine the cost of performing any investigation in changing values of any cost components. The analysis of the cost stucture for the investigation and dependence on apparatus capacity permit to contemplate the methods of reducing costs and raising apparatus use efficiency. One of these methods is transition to double-shift work of scintigraphic rooms equipped in the first place by gamma-cameras with computers

  1. Confronting the Economic Model with the Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren

    2006-01-01

    methods. When this is not the case, but likelihood methods are applied nonetheless, the result is incorrect inference. In his paper we illustrate the problem of possible incorrect inference with a recent application of a DSGE model to US data (Ireland, 2004). Specifically, this paper discusses two broad...

  2. Economic Models and Algorithms for Distributed Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Neumann, Dirk; Altmann, Jorn; Rana, Omer F

    2009-01-01

    Distributed computing models for sharing resources such as Grids, Peer-to-Peer systems, or voluntary computing are becoming increasingly popular. This book intends to discover fresh avenues of research and amendments to existing technologies, aiming at the successful deployment of commercial distributed systems

  3. ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODELING INNOVATION SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.V. Makarov

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents one of the mathematical tools for modeling innovation processes. With the help of Kondratieff long waves can define innovation cycles. However, complexity of the innovation system implies a qualitative description. The article describes the problems of this area of research.

  4. Essays on model averaging and political economics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, W.

    2013-01-01

    This thesis first investigates various issues related with model averaging, and then evaluates two policies, i.e. West Development Drive in China and fiscal decentralization in U.S, using econometric tools. Chapter 2 proposes a hierarchical weighted least squares (HWALS) method to address multiple

  5. Economic analysis of efficient distribution transformer trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Downing, D.J.; McConnell, B.W.; Barnes, P.R.; Hadley, S.W.; Van Dyke, J.W.

    1998-03-01

    This report outlines an approach that will account for uncertainty in the development of evaluation factors used to identify transformer designs with the lowest total owning cost (TOC). The TOC methodology is described and the most highly variable parameters are discussed. The model is developed to account for uncertainties as well as statistical distributions for the important parameters. Sample calculations are presented. The TOC methodology is applied to data provided by two utilities in order to test its validity.

  6. Chaotic time series analysis in economics: Balance and perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faggini, Marisa

    2014-01-01

    The aim of the paper is not to review the large body of work concerning nonlinear time series analysis in economics, about which much has been written, but rather to focus on the new techniques developed to detect chaotic behaviours in economic data. More specifically, our attention will be devoted to reviewing some of these techniques and their application to economic and financial data in order to understand why chaos theory, after a period of growing interest, appears now not to be such an interesting and promising research area

  7. Economic analysis of land regeneration programmes through rural cooperatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reddy, B.S.; Srinivasan, P.V.; Parikh, K.S.; Parikh, J.K.

    1997-01-01

    An economic analysis of land regeneration programmes is given combining the criteria of financial as well as economic feasibility and sustainability applied to a wood plantation of Mallanahlly TGCS in Karnataka, India. Feasibility is measured in terms of economic benefits to the stakeholders and sustainability through optimal rotation of trees as well as continuous annual income to the stakeholders from such rotations. The plantation programme is evaluated at the perspectives of both TGCS and the society as a whole and it is found that benefit cost ratios are high in both the cases. (K.A.)

  8. Chaotic time series analysis in economics: Balance and perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faggini, Marisa, E-mail: mfaggini@unisa.it [Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Statistiche, Università di Salerno, Fisciano 84084 (Italy)

    2014-12-15

    The aim of the paper is not to review the large body of work concerning nonlinear time series analysis in economics, about which much has been written, but rather to focus on the new techniques developed to detect chaotic behaviours in economic data. More specifically, our attention will be devoted to reviewing some of these techniques and their application to economic and financial data in order to understand why chaos theory, after a period of growing interest, appears now not to be such an interesting and promising research area.

  9. Socio-economic analysis in the transport sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    an important element in the political decision process. The analysis provides information about how the society’s resources – from an economic viewpoint – are used in the best possible way, and how costs and benefits are distributed between e.g. the state, the users and the environment. The society does......This compendium is intended to be a tool for students in conducting socio-economic appraisals in the transport sector following the recommendations made by the Danish Manual for Socio-economic Appraisal (DMT, 2003). The appraisal process is in this compendium outlined as a step-by-step process...

  10. Green technologies for the use of urban wastewater: economic analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Horacio Alfredo Gil

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Urban sewage is one of the biggest polluters of water resources. For treatment, the usual conventional technologies (CT are based on civil and hydraulic engineering; more recently, green technologies (GT based on biology and ecology began to be developed. The aim of this study was to assess the economic aspects of these technologies using cost-benefit analysis. The economic benefits are derived from the sale of forest products and the environmental benefits of water decontamination, valued by the avoided cost method. The results of the study establish that GT have better commercial and economic performance than CT, and that the inclusion of environmental benefit significantly improves the results.

  11. Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (2011 - part 2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of this workshop Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis. focused on conceptual and methodological issues - estimating impacts and valuing damages on a sectoral basis.

  12. Analysis and Application of Quality Economics Based on Input-Output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Qiang; Li, Xin

    2018-01-01

    Quality economics analysis is an important research area in the current economic frontier, which has a huge role in promoting the quality-benefit type road development in China. Through the study of quality economics analysis and application, economics of quality and quality economics management are summarized, and theoretical framework of quality economics analysis is constructed. Finally, the quality economics analysis of aerospace equipment is taken as an example to carry on the application research.

  13. Causality analysis of diesel consumption and economic growth in Cameroon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamba, Jean Gaston; Njomo, Donatien; Limanond, Thirayoot; Ntsafack, Borel

    2012-01-01

    This study examines the causal relationship between diesel consumption and economic growth in Cameroon by using a three-step modern time-series technique. Tests for unit roots, cointegration, and Granger-causality based on error correction model are employed on annual data covering the period 1975–2008. Empirical results of the study confirm the presence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between diesel consumption and economic growth. The error correction model shows that an estimated 1% increase in economic growth causes a rise in diesel consumption of 1.30% in the long-run. The overall results show that there exists bidirectional causality in the long-run relationship and no causality in the short-run relationship between diesel consumption and economic growth at the 5% level of significance. Thus, the energy policies in Cameroon should place priority on the discovery of new oil field and building capacity additions of the refinery to increase production of petroleum products, as this would propel the economic growth of the country. - Highlights: ► We examine the causal relationship between diesel consumption and GDP in Cameroon. ► we analyze the petroleum products sector in Cameroon. ► 1% increase in economic growth causes a rise in diesel consumption of 1.30%. ► The policy aimed at improving diesel supply have a positive impact on economics.

  14. Economic analysis of fusion breeders. Supplement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delene, J.G.

    1985-01-01

    Three fusion/fission hybrids and three converter reactors were considered in combination: (1) Li-Be (Opt-Li) blanket, (2) molten salt blanket (1.6 blanket energy multiplier), and (3) molten salt blanket (2.5 blanket energy multiplier). The following converter (fission) reactors were considered: (1) LWR, (2) HTGR, and (3) molten salt. In order to provide some perspective on the results of the hybrid analysis, LMFBRs were also examined: (1) methods applied consistently, and (2) range of LMFBR costs consistent with current thought on advanced designs

  15. Financial liberalization and economic growth : A meta-analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bumann, Silke; Hermes, Niels; Lensink, Robert

    This study provides a systematic analysis of the empirical literature on the relationship between financial liberalization and economic growth by conducting a meta-analysis, based on 441 t-statistics reported in 60 empirical studies. We focus on explaining the heterogeneity of results in our sample

  16. Techno-economical Analysis of Indoor Enterprise Solutions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Zhen

    2013-01-01

    and the proposed centralized coordinated scheduling system. The proposed system is proved capable of achieving the best overall performance. Subsequently, we conduct the financial economic analysis for indoor DAS and Femto systems based on the TCO analysis. For very high data-rate in-building deployment, the Femto...

  17. Economic analysis of alternative LLW disposal methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foutes, C.E.; Queenan, C.J. III

    1987-01-01

    The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has evaluated the costs and benefits of alternative disposal technologies as part of its program to develop generally applicable environmental standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste (LLW). Costs, population health effects and Critical Population Group (CPG) exposures resulting from alternative waste treatment and disposal methods were evaluated both in absolute terms and also relative to a base case (current practice). Incremental costs of the standard included costs for packaging, processing, transportation, and burial of waste. Benefits are defined in terms of reductions in the general population health risk (expected fatal cancers and genetic effects) evaluated over 10,000 years. A cost-effectiveness ratio, defined as the incremental cost per avoided health effect, was calculated for each alternative standard. The cost-effectiveness analysis took into account a number of waste streams, hydrogeologic and climatic region settings, and waste treatment and disposal methods. This paper describes the alternatives considered and preliminary results of the cost-effectiveness analysis. 15 references, 7 figures, 3 tables

  18. Model for economical analysis of oil and gas deepwater production concepts : Comparisons of life cycle cost of subsea production systems vs. floating structures with dry wellheads.

    OpenAIRE

    Romero Mata, Omar

    2010-01-01

    Master's thesis in Offshore technology The scope of the work was to create a model that will allow the comparison of Life Cycle Costs (LCC) for subsea production systems and floating structures with dry wellheads for the Mexican territorial waters of the Gulf of Mexico. To give validity to the model, an empirical comparison on the resulting recovery factor based on data of the US Gulf of Mexico was included. This comparison is intended to answer ¿Is there a significant diffe...

  19. Insurer’s activity as object of economic analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O.O. Poplavskiy

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the substantiation of theoretical fundamentals of insurer’s analysis and peculiarities of its implementation. The attention has been focused on the important role of economic analysis in economic science which is confirmed by its active use in research and practical orientation. The author summarizes the classification and principles of insurer’s activity analysis, supplements it with specific principles for insurer’s environment, publicity and risk-orientation which enable increasingly to take into account the peculiarities of insurance relations. The paper pays attention to the specification of elements of analysis and its key directions including the analysis of insurer’s financing, the analysis of insurance operations and the analysis of investment activity which will allow the effective functioning of risk management system.

  20. Migration modelling in the New Economic Geography

    OpenAIRE

    Camacho Pérez, Maria del Carmen

    2010-01-01

    The benchmark of this paper is the Fujita and Thisse (2002) core-periphery model, which adds a R&D sector with skilled labor to create new varieties for the modern sector. The number of R&D firms increases not only with the number of existing patents and knowledge spillovers but also with the number of skilled workers who can migrate and choose theregion offering the better lifetime salary.The main objective of the present work is to analyse the long-term consequences of the choice of the mig...

  1. An economic model of amniocentesis choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fajnzylber, Eduardo; Hotz, V Joseph; Sanders, Seth G

    2010-03-01

    Medical practitioners typically utilize the following protocol when advising pregnant women about testing for the possibility of genetic disorders with their fetus: Pregnant women over the age of 35 should be tested for Down syndrome and other genetic disorders, while for younger women, such tests are discouraged (or not discussed) as the test can cause a pregnancy to miscarry. The logic appears compelling. The rate at which amniocentesis causes a pregnancy to miscarry is constant while the rate of genetic disorder rises substantially over a woman's reproductive years. Hence the potential benefit from testing - being able to terminate a fetus that is known to have a genetic disorder - rises with maternal age. This article argues that this logic is incomplete. While the benefits to testing do rise with age, the costs rise as well. Undergoing an amniocentesis always entails the risk of inducing a miscarriage of a healthy fetus. However, these costs are lower at early ages, because there is a higher probability of being able to replace a miscarried fetus with a healthy birth at a later age. We develop and calibrate a dynamic model of amniocentesis choice to explore this tradeoff. For parameters that characterize realistic age patterns of chromosomal abnormalities, fertility rates and miscarriages following amniocentesis, our model implies a falling, rather than rising, rate of amniocentesis as women approach menopause.

  2. The ATLAS Analysis Model

    CERN Multimedia

    Amir Farbin

    The ATLAS Analysis Model is a continually developing vision of how to reconcile physics analysis requirements with the ATLAS offline software and computing model constraints. In the past year this vision has influenced the evolution of the ATLAS Event Data Model, the Athena software framework, and physics analysis tools. These developments, along with the October Analysis Model Workshop and the planning for CSC analyses have led to a rapid refinement of the ATLAS Analysis Model in the past few months. This article introduces some of the relevant issues and presents the current vision of the future ATLAS Analysis Model. Event Data Model The ATLAS Event Data Model (EDM) consists of several levels of details, each targeted for a specific set of tasks. For example the Event Summary Data (ESD) stores calorimeter cells and tracking system hits thereby permitting many calibration and alignment tasks, but will be only accessible at particular computing sites with potentially large latency. In contrast, the Analysis...

  3. The Economic Risks Arising from the Analysis of the Balance Sheet of an Economic Entity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea Mihaela Marin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Any economic entity operates under probability and risk. In a general acceptation, risk means the validity of the result obtained under pressure of the economic environment; in other words, the risk is the potential damage posed to heritage, interests and affect the entity. In this paper we want to capture, the calculation in terms of the balance sheet analysis of the three risks, which can be measured on the basis of the balance sheet data and indicators, namely: the operational risk, financial risk, and the risk of bankruptcy.

  4. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  5. Evaluating the effectiveness of carbon tax for total emission control of carbon dioxide. Systems analysis of a dynamic environmental-economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamura, Hiroyuki; Abe, Makoto; Tomiyama, Shinji; Hatono, Itsuo

    1999-01-01

    This paper deals with how to evaluate the effectiveness of carbon tax (environmental tax) for regulating the carbon dioxide emissions. For this purpose we mainly deal with a primal problem and its dual problem of dynamic linear programming model. The primal problem is formulated by using Leontief type input-output model and the basic idea of commodity stocks. It represents the balance of materials. The dual problem is obtained and interpreted as cash balance. It is clarified in this paper whether the carbon tax is effective to decrease the total amount of carbon dioxide emissions. (author)

  6. Economic Modeling as a Component of Academic Strategic Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKinnon, Joyce; Sothmann, Mark; Johnson, James

    2001-01-01

    Computer-based economic modeling was used to enable a school of allied health to define outcomes, identify associated costs, develop cost and revenue models, and create a financial planning system. As a strategic planning tool, it assisted realistic budgeting and improved efficiency and effectiveness. (Contains 18 references.) (SK)

  7. Modeling and forecasting mortality with economic growth : a multipopulation approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boonen, T.J.; Li, H.

    2017-01-01

    Research on mortality modeling of multiple populations focuses mainly on extrapolating past mortality trends and summarizing these trends by one or more common latent factors. This article proposes a multipopulation stochastic mortality model that uses the explanatory power of economic growth. In

  8. Economic modelling of pork production-marketing chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ouden, den M.

    1996-01-01

    The research described in this thesis was focused on the development of economic simulation and optimization computer models to support decision making with respect to pork production- marketing chains. The models include three production stages: pig farrowing, pig fattening and pig slaughtering

  9. Activity-Based Costing Model for Assessing Economic Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeHayes, Daniel W.; Lovrinic, Joseph G.

    1994-01-01

    An economic model for evaluating the cost performance of academic and administrative programs in higher education is described. Examples from its application at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis are used to illustrate how the model has been used to control costs and reengineer processes. (Author/MSE)

  10. Criteria for comparing economic impact models of tourism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klijs, J.; Heijman, W.J.M.; Korteweg Maris, D.; Bryon, J.

    2012-01-01

    There are substantial differences between models of the economic impacts of tourism. Not only do the nature and precision of results vary, but data demands, complexity and underlying assumptions also differ. Often, it is not clear whether the models chosen are appropriate for the specific situation

  11. Building Better Ecological Machines: Complexity Theory and Alternative Economic Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jess Bier

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Computer models of the economy are regularly used to predict economic phenomena and set financial policy. However, the conventional macroeconomic models are currently being reimagined after they failed to foresee the current economic crisis, the outlines of which began to be understood only in 2007-2008. In this article we analyze the most prominent of this reimagining: Agent-Based models (ABMs. ABMs are an influential alternative to standard economic models, and they are one focus of complexity theory, a discipline that is a more open successor to the conventional chaos and fractal modeling of the 1990s. The modelers who create ABMs claim that their models depict markets as ecologies, and that they are more responsive than conventional models that depict markets as machines. We challenge this presentation, arguing instead that recent modeling efforts amount to the creation of models as ecological machines. Our paper aims to contribute to an understanding of the organizing metaphors of macroeconomic models, which we argue is relevant conceptually and politically, e.g., when models are used for regulatory purposes.

  12. Socio-Economic Factors Affecting Adoption of Modern Information and Communication Technology by Farmers in India: Analysis Using Multivariate Probit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mittal, Surabhi; Mehar, Mamta

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The paper analyzes factors that affect the likelihood of adoption of different agriculture-related information sources by farmers. Design/Methodology/Approach: The paper links the theoretical understanding of the existing multiple sources of information that farmers use, with the empirical model to analyze the factors that affect the…

  13. A Multi-Region Model of Economic Growth with Human Capital and Negative Externalities in Innovation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Batabyal, A.; Nijkamp, P.

    2013-01-01

    We use a multi-region model and provide the first theoretical analysis of the effects of human capital use and a particular kind of innovative activity on economic growth. In each of the N heterogeneous regions in our model, consumers have constant relative risk aversion preferences, there are

  14. The Economic Impact of Tourism. An Input-Output Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Camelia SURUGIU

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents an Input-Output Analysis for Romania, an important source of information for the investigation of the inter-relations existing among different industries. The Input-Output Analysis is used to determine the role and importance of different economic value added, incomes and employment and it analyses the existing connection in an economy. This paper is focused on tourism and the input-output analysis is finished for the Hotels and Restaurants Sector.

  15. Cost-effectiveness analysis of umeclidinium/vilanterol for the management of patients with moderate to very severe COPD using an economic model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilson MR

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Michele R Wilson,1 Jeetvan G Patel,2,3 Amber Coleman,2 Cheryl L McDade,1 Richard H Stanford,2 Stephanie R Earnshaw1 1RTI Health Solutions, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA; 2GSK, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA; 3Amgen Inc., Thousand Oaks, CA, USA Background: Bronchodilators such as long-acting muscarinic antagonists (LAMAs and long-acting β2-agonists (LABAs are central to the pharmacological management of COPD. Dual bronchodilation with umeclidinium/vilanterol (UMEC/VI; 62.5/25 µg is a novel LAMA/LABA combination approved for maintenance treatment for patients with COPD.Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of maintenance treatment with UMEC/VI compared with tiotropium (TIO 18 µg, open dual LAMA + LABA treatment, or no long-acting bronchodilator treatment in patients with moderate to very severe COPD.Methods: A Markov model was developed to estimate the costs and outcomes associated with UMEC/VI treatment in patients with moderate to very severe COPD (GSK study number: HO-13-13411. Clinical efficacy, costs, utilities, and mortality obtained from the published literature were used as the model inputs. Costs are presented in US dollars based on 2015 prices. The model outputs are total costs, drug costs, other medical costs, number of COPD exacerbations, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs. Costs and outcomes were discounted at a 3% annual rate. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the effects of changing parameters on the uncertainty of the results.Results: UMEC/VI treatment for moderate to very severe COPD was associated with lower lifetime medical costs ($82,344 compared with TIO ($88,822, open dual LAMA + LABA treatment ($114,442, and no long-acting bronchodilator ($86,751. Fewer exacerbations were predicted to occur with UMEC/VI treatment compared with no long-acting bronchodilator treatment. UMEC/VI provided

  16. Cost-effectiveness analysis of umeclidinium/vilanterol for the management of patients with moderate to very severe COPD using an economic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Michele R; Patel, Jeetvan G; Coleman, Amber; McDade, Cheryl L; Stanford, Richard H; Earnshaw, Stephanie R

    2017-01-01

    Bronchodilators such as long-acting muscarinic antagonists (LAMAs) and long-acting β 2 -agonists (LABAs) are central to the pharmacological management of COPD. Dual bronchodilation with umeclidinium/vilanterol (UMEC/VI; 62.5/25 μg) is a novel LAMA/LABA combination approved for maintenance treatment for patients with COPD. The objective of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of maintenance treatment with UMEC/VI compared with tiotropium (TIO) 18 μg, open dual LAMA + LABA treatment, or no long-acting bronchodilator treatment in patients with moderate to very severe COPD. A Markov model was developed to estimate the costs and outcomes associated with UMEC/VI treatment in patients with moderate to very severe COPD (GSK study number: HO-13-13411). Clinical efficacy, costs, utilities, and mortality obtained from the published literature were used as the model inputs. Costs are presented in US dollars based on 2015 prices. The model outputs are total costs, drug costs, other medical costs, number of COPD exacerbations, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Costs and outcomes were discounted at a 3% annual rate. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the effects of changing parameters on the uncertainty of the results. UMEC/VI treatment for moderate to very severe COPD was associated with lower lifetime medical costs ($82,344) compared with TIO ($88,822), open dual LAMA + LABA treatment ($114,442), and no long-acting bronchodilator ($86,751). Fewer exacerbations were predicted to occur with UMEC/VI treatment compared with no long-acting bronchodilator treatment. UMEC/VI provided an 0.11 and 0.25 increase in QALYs compared with TIO and no long-acting bronchodilator treatment, and as such, dominated these cost-effectiveness analyses. Sensitivity analyses confirmed that the results were robust. The results from this model suggest that UMEC/VI treatment would be dominant

  17. A Model for Assessing the Gender Aspect in Economic Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ona Rakauskienė

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of research is to develop a conceptual model for assessing the impact of the gender aspect on economic policy at macro– and microeconomic levels. The research methodology is based on analysing scientific approaches to the gender aspect in economics and gender–responsive budgeting as well as determining the impact of the gender aspect on GDP, foreign trade, the state budget and the labour market. First, the major findings encompass the main idea of a conceptual model proposing that a socio–economic picture of society can be accepted as completed only when, alongside public and private sectors, includes the care/reproductive sector that is dominated by women and creating added value in the form of educated human resources; second, macroeconomics is not neutral in terms of gender equality. Gender asymmetry is manifested not only at the level of microeconomics (labour market and business but also at the level of macroeconomics (GDP, the state budget and foreign trade, which has a negative impact on economic growth and state budget revenues. In this regard, economic decisions, according to the principles of gender equality and in order to achieve gender equality in economics, must be made, as the gender aspect has to be also implemented at the macroeconomic level.

  18. Energy technologies and energy efficiency in economic modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

    1998-01-01

    This paper discusses different approaches to incorporating energy technologies and technological development in energy-economic models. Technological development is a very important issue in long-term energy demand projections and in environmental analyses. Different assumptions on technological ...... of renewable energy and especially wind power will increase the rate of efficiency improvement. A technologically based model in this case indirectly makes the energy efficiency endogenous in the aggregate energy-economy model....... technological development. This paper examines the effect on aggregate energy efficiency of using technological models to describe a number of specific technologies and of incorporating these models in an economic model. Different effects from the technology representation are illustrated. Vintage effects...... illustrates the dependence of average efficiencies and productivity on capacity utilisation rates. In the long run regulation induced by environmental policies are also very important for the improvement of aggregate energy efficiency in the energy supply sector. A Danish policy to increase the share...

  19. Analysis of economic convergence through synthetic development indicators: the chilean case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Víctor Fernando Figueroa Arcila

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper defends the use of convergence models to study the temporary evolution of the Chilean communes’ socioeconomic development. To do so, we will use an indicator made up of using multivariate analysis techniques. By means of regression models of transversal section and models of distributional dynamics we will outline, on the basis of the historic function of communal economies, the behaviour expected for those economies in future and, therefore, the tendencial evolution of Chilean territorial economic model.

  20. Innovation, Decentralization, and Planning in a Multi-Region Model of Schumpeterian Economic Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Batabyal, Amit; Nijkamp, Peter

    2014-01-01

    We study innovation and the resulting Schumpeterian economic growth that this innovation gives rise to in a model with N heterogeneous regions. For each region i where i=1,...,N, our analysis leads to five findings. First, we define the balanced growth path (BGP) allocations and the equilibrium of interest. Second, we stipulate the form of the innovation possibilities frontier that is consistent with balanced economic growth. Third, we derive the growth rate of the ith region in the decentral...

  1. How does economic theory explain the Hubbert peak oil model?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynes, F.; Okullo, S.; Hofkes, M.

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to provide an economic foundation for bell shaped oil extraction trajectories, consistent with Hubbert's peak oil model. There are several reasons why it is important to get insight into the economic foundations of peak oil. As production decisions are expected to depend on economic factors, a better comprehension of the economic foundations of oil extraction behaviour is fundamental to predict production and price over the coming years. The investigation made in this paper helps us to get a better understanding of the different mechanisms that may be at work in the case of OPEC and non-OPEC producers. We show that profitability is the main driver behind production plans. Changes in profitability due to divergent trajectories between costs and oil price may give rise to a Hubbert production curve. For this result we do not need to introduce a demand or an exploration effect as is generally assumed in the literature.

  2. Evolutionary modelling of the macro-economic impacts of catastrophic flood events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Safarzynska, K.E.; Brouwer, R.; Hofkes, M.

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines the possible contribution of evolutionary economics to macro-economic modelling of flood impacts to provide guidance for future economic risk modelling. Most macro-economic models start from a neoclassical economic perspective and focus on equilibrium outcomes, either in a static

  3. Turning for Ulcer Reduction (TURN) Study: An Economic Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulden, Mike; Bergstrom, Nancy; Horn, Susan D; Rapp, Mary; Stern, Anita; Barrett, Ryan; Watkiss, Michael; Krahn, Murray

    2014-01-01

    The Turning for Ulcer Reduction (TURN) study was a multisite, randomized controlled trial that aimed to determine the optimal frequency of turning nursing facility residents with mobility limitations who are at moderate and high risk for pressure ulcer (PrU) development. Here we present data from the economic analysis. This economic analysis aims to estimate the economic consequences for Ontario of switching from a repositioning schedule of 2-hour intervals to a schedule of 3-hour or 4-hour intervals. Costs considered in the analysis included those associated with nursing staff time spent repositioning residents and with incontinent care supplies, which included briefs, barrier cream, and washcloths. The total economic benefit of switching to 3-hour or 4-hour repositioning is estimated to be $11.05 or $16.74 per day, respectively, for every resident at moderate or high risk of developing PrUs. For a typical facility with 123 residents, 41 (33%) of whom are at moderate or high risk of developing PrUs, the total economic benefit is estimated to be $453 daily for 3-hour or $686 daily for 4-hour repositioning. For Ontario as a whole, assuming that there are 77,933 residents at 634 LTC facilities, 25,927 (33%) of whom are at moderate or high risk of developing PrUs, the total economic benefits of switching to 3-hour or 4-hour repositioning are estimated to be $286,420 or $433,913 daily, respectively, equivalent to $104.5 million or $158.4 million per year. We did not consider the savings the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care might incur should less frequent repositioning reduce the incidence of work-related injury among nursing staff, so our findings are potentially conservative. A switch to 3-hour or 4-hour repositioning appears likely to yield substantial economic benefits to Ontario without placing residents at greater risk of developing PrUs.

  4. Economic effectiveness of disease management programs: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krause, David S

    2005-04-01

    The economic effectiveness of disease management programs, which are designed to improve the clinical and economic outcomes for chronically ill individuals, has been evaluated extensively. A literature search was performed with MEDLINE and other published sources for the period covering January 1995 to September 2003. The search was limited to empirical articles that measured the direct economic outcomes for asthma, diabetes, and heart disease management programs. Of the 360 articles and presentations evaluated, only 67 met the selection criteria for meta-analysis, which included 32,041 subjects. Although some studies contained multiple measurements of direct economic outcomes, only one average effect size per study was included in the meta-analysis. Based on the studies included in the research, a meta-analysis provided a statistically significant answer to the question of whether disease management programs are economically effective. The magnitude of the observed average effect size for equally weighted studies was 0.311 (95% CI = 0.272-0.350). Statistically significant differences of effect sizes by study design, disease type and intensity of disease management program interventions were not found after a moderating variable, disease severity, was taken into consideration. The results suggest that disease management programs are more effective economically with severely ill enrollees and that chronic disease program interventions are most effective when coordinated with the overall level of disease severity. The findings can be generalized, which may assist health care policy makers and practitioners in addressing the issue of providing economically effective care for the growing number of individuals with chronic illness.

  5. Economic Analysis of Immunization Strategies for PRRS Control [corrected].

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel C L Linhares

    Full Text Available Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSv is a swine-specific pathogen that causes significant increases in production costs. When a breeding herd becomes infected, in an attempt to hasten control and elimination of PRRSv, some veterinarians have adopted a strategy called load-close-expose which consists of interrupting replacement pig introductions into the herd for several weeks (herd closure and exposing the whole herd to a replicating PRRSv to boost herd immunity. Either modified-live virus (MLV vaccine or live field-virus inoculation (FVI is used. This study consisted of partial budget analyses to compare MLV to FVI as the exposure method of load-close-expose program to control and eliminate PRRSv from infected breeding herds, and secondly to estimate benefit / cost of vaccinating sow herds preventatively. Under the assumptions used in this study, MLV held economic advantage over FVI. However, sensitivity analysis revealed that decreasing margin over variable costs below $ 47.32, or increasing PRRSv-attributed cost above $18.89 or achieving time-to-stability before 25 weeks resulted in advantage of FVI over MLV. Preventive vaccination of sow herds was beneficial when the frequency of PRRSv infection was at least every 1 year and 9 months [corrected]. The economics of preventative vaccination was minimally affected by cost attributed to field-type PRRSv infection on growing pigs or by the breeding herd productivity level. The models developed and described in this paper provide valuable tools to assist veterinarians in their efforts to control PRRSv.

  6. Green roof valuation: a probabilistic economic analysis of environmental benefits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Corrie; Adriaens, Peter; Talbot, F Brian

    2008-03-15

    Green (vegetated) roofs have gained global acceptance as a technologythat has the potential to help mitigate the multifaceted, complex environmental problems of urban centers. While policies that encourage green roofs exist atthe local and regional level, installation costs remain at a premium and deter investment in this technology. The objective of this paper is to quantitatively integrate the range of stormwater, energy, and air pollution benefits of green roofs into an economic model that captures the building-specific scale. Currently, green roofs are primarily valued on increased roof longevity, reduced stormwater runoff, and decreased building energy consumption. Proper valuation of these benefits can reduce the present value of a green roof if investors look beyond the upfront capital costs. Net present value (NPV) analysis comparing a conventional roof system to an extensive green roof system demonstrates that at the end of the green roof lifetime the NPV for the green roof is between 20.3 and 25.2% less than the NPV for the conventional roof over 40 years. The additional upfront investment is recovered at the time when a conventional roof would be replaced. Increasing evidence suggests that green roofs may play a significant role in urban air quality improvement For example, uptake of N0x is estimated to range from $1683 to $6383 per metric ton of NOx reduction. These benefits were included in this study, and results translate to an annual benefit of $895-3392 for a 2000 square meter vegetated roof. Improved air quality leads to a mean NPV for the green roof that is 24.5-40.2% less than the mean conventional roof NPV. Through innovative policies, the inclusion of air pollution mitigation and the reduction of municipal stormwater infrastructure costs in economic valuation of environmental benefits of green roofs can reduce the cost gap that currently hinders U.S. investment in green roof technology.

  7. Marketing and Economic Analysis of Potatoes Irradiation in Egypt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Khateeb, M.A.; El-Hayawan, H.

    1999-01-01

    The aim of this work is to examine the marketing, economic and financial feasibility of a project for potatoes irradiation in Egypt. The Egyptian market of potatoes was described and analyzed considering the production size distributed over several years, methods of preservation and storage, percentage of loss and cost for each method, distribution channels and packing materials. The financial and economic analysis of the establishment of a pallet conveyor unit for the irradiation of potatoes was also carried out . The following investment criteria were utilized for the commercial evaluation : benefit - cost radio , payback period, average rate of return and net present value . The results of this analysis showed that the installation of a unit for the irradiation of potatoes in Egypt would be economically viable. The unit of irradiation would decline if the irradiator is used as a multipurpose facility

  8. Economic analysis of needs the training of human resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buha Vesna V.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The issue of lifelong learning is linked to the voluntary and motivated to seek knowledge from personal or organizational reasons. The fact that an individual learns driven by personal career goals, desire for self improvement and motivation refers to the importance of lifelong learning for the entire social inclusion, sustainability, and competitiveness and employment. The common denominator of all the problems of investment in education is an issue of increasing allocations to the social issues, the pace that in this area manifest needs. Relative resource constraints requires that the investment in professional development taking place in accordance with the expected contribution to the creation of new value, increase productivity and social development of society as a whole. Respecting this request, in general, should provide maximum socio-economic effects with minimal investment. Precise measurement is achieved by tools of economic analysis: cost & benefit, economic sensitivity analysis, risk assessment.

  9. Marketing and economic analysis of mango irradiation processing in egypt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elkhateeb, M.A.

    2004-01-01

    The aim of this work is to examine the marketing and economic feasibility of a project for mango irradiation in Egypt. The Egyptian market was analyzed considering the production size and cultivated area distributed over several years,the percentage of the total loss of mango that can be avoided by irradiation, the market tests in Egypt and other countries was presented and the normal distribution channels of mango when using radiation technology. The financial and economic analysis of the establishment of pallet carrier unite for the irradiation of mango was also carried out. The following investment criteria were utilized for the commercial evaluation: benefit-cost ratio, pay back period, average rate of return and net present value. The results of this analysis showed that the installation of a unit for the irradiation of mango in Egypt would be economically viable. The unit cost of irradiation would decline if the irradiator is be used as a multipurpose facility

  10. Marketing and Economic Analysis of Garlic Irradiation in Egypt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Khateeb, M.A.

    2000-01-01

    The aim of this work is to examine the marketing , economic and financial feasibility of a project for garlic irradiation in Egypt. The Egyptian market of garlic was described and analyzed considering the production size distributed over several years, methods of preservation and storage, percentage of loss and cost for each method and distribution channels. The financial and economic analysis of the establishment of A tote Box unit for the irradiation of garlic was also carried out. The following investment criteria were utilized for the commercial evaluation : benefit-cost ratio, payback period, average rate of return and net present value. The results of this analysis showed that the installation of a unit for the irradiation of garlic in Egypt would be economically viable. The unit cost of irradiation would decline if the irradiator is used as a multipurpose facility

  11. Applied welfare economics with discrete choice models: implications of theory for empirical specification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Batley, Richard; Ibáñez Rivas, Juan Nicolás

    2013-01-01

    in economics. Whilst some researchers were quick to see its practical potential (e.g. McFadden, 1968, 1975), it was not until the late 1970s and early 1980s that RUM was equipped with a reasonably comprehensive theoretical rationale in terms of the economics of consumption. An important tenet of this rationale......The apparatus of the Random Utility Model (RUM) first emerged in the early 1960s, with Marschak (1960) and Block and Marschak (1960) translating models originally developed for discriminant analysis in psychophysics (Thurstone, 1927) to the alternative domain of discrete choice analysis...

  12. A critique of non-parametric efficiency analysis in energy economics studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Chien-Ming

    2013-01-01

    The paper reexamines non-additive environmental efficiency models with weakly-disposable undesirable outputs appeared in the literature of energy economics. These efficiency models are used in numerous studies published in this journal and other energy-related outlets. Recent studies, however, have found key limitations of the weak-disposability assumption in its application to environmental efficiency analysis. It is found that efficiency scores obtained from non-additive efficiency models can be non-monotonic in pollution quantities under the weak-disposability assumption — which is against common intuition and the principle of environmental economics. In this paper, I present taxonomy of efficiency models found in the energy economics literature and illustrate the above limitations and discuss implications of monotonicity from a practical viewpoint. Finally, I review the formulations for a variable returns-to-scale technology with weakly-disposable undesirable outputs, which has been misused in a number of papers in the energy economics literature. An application to evaluating the energy efficiencies of 23 European Union states is presented to illustrate the problem. - Highlights: • Review different environmental efficiency model used in energy economics studies • Highlight limitations of these environmental efficiency models • These limitations have not been recognized in the existing energy economics literature. • Data from 23 European Union states are used to illustrate the methodological consequences

  13. ONTOLOGICAL MODEL OF STRATEGIC ECONOMIC SECURITY OF ENTERPRISE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. A. Zaporozhtseva

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Article explains the necessity the application of the ontological approach to modeling the strategic economic security in the formalization of the basic categories of domain company recognized its benefits. Among the advantages of the model distinguishes its versatility and ability to describe various aspects of strategic security - the system strategies and goals of the organization and business processes; possibility of its use at different levels of detail - from the top-level description of the basic categories of management, to design-level analytic applications; as well as the adaptability of the model, with depth on particular aspects determined by practical necessity and not regulated methodology. The model integrates various aspects of the concept of enterprise architecture and organizes conceptual apparatus. Ontological model easy to understand and adjust as business architects and specialists in designing systems of economic security and offers many categories of verbal representation of the domain of the enterprise. Proved the feasibility of using process-functional approach in providing strategic economic security, according to which the components of such a security company proposed as business processes, finance, staff and contractors. The article presents the author's ontological model of strategic economic security, including endangered sites, the presence of factors that threaten the security of the object and the subject of providing security. Further, it is proved that in the subjects of security impact on the object using the tools, measures and activities within the strategy formed the mechanism is implemented managerial decisions to strengthen the strategic economic security. The process of diagnosis, detection, identification of threats of economic security, and the development of enterprise development strategies, taking into account its level of economic security must be under the constant supervision of the process of

  14. Modeling and Forecasting Mortality With Economic Growth: A Multipopulation Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boonen, Tim J; Li, Hong

    2017-10-01

    Research on mortality modeling of multiple populations focuses mainly on extrapolating past mortality trends and summarizing these trends by one or more common latent factors. This article proposes a multipopulation stochastic mortality model that uses the explanatory power of economic growth. In particular, we extend the Li and Lee model (Li and Lee 2005) by including economic growth, represented by the real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, to capture the common mortality trend for a group of populations with similar socioeconomic conditions. We find that our proposed model provides a better in-sample fit and an out-of-sample forecast performance. Moreover, it generates lower (higher) forecasted period life expectancy for countries with high (low) GDP per capita than the Li and Lee model.

  15. An object-oriented approach to energy-economic modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wise, M.A.; Fox, J.A.; Sands, R.D.

    1993-12-01

    In this paper, the authors discuss the experiences in creating an object-oriented economic model of the U.S. energy and agriculture markets. After a discussion of some central concepts, they provide an overview of the model, focusing on the methodology of designing an object-oriented class hierarchy specification based on standard microeconomic production functions. The evolution of the model from the class definition stage to programming it in C++, a standard object-oriented programming language, will be detailed. The authors then discuss the main differences between writing the object-oriented program versus a procedure-oriented program of the same model. Finally, they conclude with a discussion of the advantages and limitations of the object-oriented approach based on the experience in building energy-economic models with procedure-oriented approaches and languages.

  16. How is an analysis of the enterprise economic environment done?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Parodi Trece

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The proper interpretation of the evolution of the economy is a useful tool to improve corporate decision-making. The aim of this paper is to explain, with examples applied to the current economic reality, how an analysis of the economic environment is made and how it serves for the corporate strategic planning. To do this, after the explanation of the overall conceptual framework; gross domestic product, inflation and external deficit as indicators, key in the "language" used by analysts are defined. These are economic indicators, related, that depend on domestic policy and exogenous shocks, defined as events that are out of the hands of economic policy designers, but that influence the three variables, such as the international financial crisis. Following it, the formalization through macroeconomic identities is made, in order to finally explain "how is the economy" through them; and the relationship between the internal to the external economic environment. Bringing the economy to business should be a priority in an increasingly integrated context, characterized by the fact that the positive and the negative of what happens in the world economy is transmitted through various channels, to companies located in different countries. Hence, companies should broaden their vision, as the economic environment does not only include what happens within the country, but the future of the world economy.

  17. Environmental/Economic Analysis and Recycling of Wastes from Air ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Environmental and economic analysis was performed on the wastes from Air Liquid Nigeria Ltd. The company's waste water, spent oil, noise and air pollutants were examined. Results show no serious adverse impact on the ambient air quality. There was serious noise pollution problem around the factory hall and generator ...

  18. Economic Analysis. Volume V. Course Segments 65-79.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterling Inst., Washington, DC. Educational Technology Center.

    The fifth volume of the multimedia, individualized course in economic analysis produced for the United States Naval Academy covers segments 65-79 of the course. Included in the volume are discussions of monopoly markets, monopolistic competition, oligopoly markets, and the theory of factor demand and supply. Other segments of the course, the…

  19. Economic Analysis of Small Scale Egg Production in Gombe Local ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study was conducted to determine the economic profitability of small-scale egg production in Gombe L.G.A. Gombe State. Data were collected from 36 famers using simple random sampling technique. The data collected were analyzed using descriptive statistics, gross margin and farm financial ratio analysis. The study ...

  20. Fire in longleaf pine stand management: an economic analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodney L. Busby; Donald G. Hodges

    1999-01-01

    A simulation analysis of the economics of using prescribed fire as a forest management tool in the management of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) plantations was conducted. A management regime using frequent prescribed fire was compared to management regimes involving fertilization and chemical release, chemical control, and mechanical control. Determining the...