Numerical modeling of economic uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schjær-Jacobsen, Hans

2007-01-01

Representation and modeling of economic uncertainty is addressed by different modeling methods, namely stochastic variables and probabilities, interval analysis, and fuzzy numbers, in particular triple estimates. Focusing on discounted cash flow analysis numerical results are presented, comparisons...... are made between alternative modeling methods, and characteristics of the methods are discussed....

Economic modelling for life extension decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farber, M.A.; Harrison, D.L.; Carlson, D.D.

1987-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives. An analysis of the role of life extension for Virginia Power's generating system was performed using the MIDAS model, developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. MIDAS is particularly well suited to this type of study because of its decision analysis framework. The model incorporates modules for load analysis, capacity expansion, production costing, financial analysis, and rates. The decision tree structure facilitates the multiple-scenario analysis of uncertainty. The model's output includes many economic and financial measures, including capital expenditures, fuel and purchases power costs, revenue requirements, average rates, external financing requirements, and coverage ratio. Based on findings for Virginia Power's Surry 1 plant, nuclear plant life extension has economic benefits for a utility's customers and financial benefits for the utility's investors. These benefits depend on a number of economic, technical and regulatory factors. The economic analysis presented in this paper identifies many of the key factors and issues relevant to life extension planning

Economic assessment model architecture for AGC/AVLIS selection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoglund, R.L.

1984-01-01

The economic assessment model architecture described provides the flexibility and completeness in economic analysis that the selection between AGC and AVLIS demands. Process models which are technology-specific will provide the first-order responses of process performance and cost to variations in process parameters. The economics models can be used to test the impacts of alternative deployment scenarios for a technology. Enterprise models provide global figures of merit for evaluating the DOE perspective on the uranium enrichment enterprise, and business analysis models compute the financial parameters from the private investor's viewpoint

The BCRA’s Small Economic Model

OpenAIRE

Pedro Elosegui; Guillermo Escudé; Lorena Garegnani; Juan Martín Sotes Paladino

2007-01-01

The use of macroeconomic forecasting models is a common practice in central banks for monetary policy design, for the analysis of the current economic developments and for medium and long term forecasts. Among those models, the small-scale macroeconomic models stand out. Though relatively simple, they are structured and take into account the transmission mechanisms that relate the main variables of interest: the interest rate, the exchange rate, GDP and inflation. The Small Economic Model (ME...

Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffmann, Sandra

2011-09-01

Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Review of regional economic models with special reference to labor impact assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ferris, G.; Mason, B.

1979-06-01

This paper reviews several regional economic models and examines the capabilities of these models for assessing the total employment impacts of solar energy adoption. Five generic analytic methods are discussed: economic base analysis, shift-share analysis, demographic-economic interaction models, input-output analysis, and industrial location analysis. Ten regional models incorporating some aspect of these methods are reviewed. From the model review, the conclusion is drawn that there is no single model that fits all of the necessary criteria for planned research efforts. Models that appear to hold promise are the Economic Activity Analysis (EAA) Model, the Regional Industrial Multipliers System (RIMS), the Multiregion, Multi-industry (MRMI) Model, and the MULTIREGION model.

Energetic-economic dynamic computational analysis of plants with small capacity - Gera model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Storfer, A.F.; Demanboro, A.C. de; Campello, C.A.G.B.

1990-01-01

A methodology and mathematical model for energy and economic analysis of hydroelectric power plants with low and medium capacity are presented. This methodology will be used for isolated or integrated hydroelectric power plants, including plants that part of their produced energy will go to the site market and part will go to regional electric system. (author)

Economic aspects and models for building codes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bonke, Jens; Pedersen, Dan Ove; Johnsen, Kjeld

It is the purpose of this bulletin to present an economic model for estimating the consequence of new or changed building codes. The object is to allow comparative analysis in order to improve the basis for decisions in this field. The model is applied in a case study.......It is the purpose of this bulletin to present an economic model for estimating the consequence of new or changed building codes. The object is to allow comparative analysis in order to improve the basis for decisions in this field. The model is applied in a case study....

Advanced Fuel Cycle Economic Sensitivity Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

David Shropshire; Kent Williams; J.D. Smith; Brent Boore

2006-12-01

A fuel cycle economic analysis was performed on four fuel cycles to provide a baseline for initial cost comparison using the Gen IV Economic Modeling Work Group G4 ECON spreadsheet model, Decision Programming Language software, the 2006 Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis report, industry cost data, international papers, the nuclear power related cost study from MIT, Harvard, and the University of Chicago. The analysis developed and compared the fuel cycle cost component of the total cost of energy for a wide range of fuel cycles including: once through, thermal with fast recycle, continuous fast recycle, and thermal recycle.

Economic analysis and prospective simulation in the low carbon town planing. Application of TRANUS+ model to Grenoble city

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saujot, Mathieu

2013-01-01

Strategic spatial planning in France is currently given a rising importance for environmental and climate issues. Is this tool really able to reduce urban sprawl and produce an efficient framework for reducing transport emissions? What are the potential contributions of economic analysis and prospective modelling to planning? To answer these questions, we developed a study on the contributions of economic tools to planning into the broader context of political and administrative reforms in France. We then produced a critical analysis of current planning practices and attempted to define the conditions for a better integration of economic analysis into planning processes and methods. For our case study on the Grenoble urban area, we built and applied a series of economic tools able to inform decision-making on local climate policies in the framework of urban planning. In addition to being the first implementation of the integrated transport - land-use model TRANUS in France, this study further links the TRANUS model to an original economic methodology to obtain a tool we call TRANUS+. This tool is able to take into account the systemic nature of cities and then help to define better transport policies, notably by producing marginal abatement cost curves useful at the urban level. To have a more complete view of urban planning and the way in which it can be improved, we investigated several issues from a planning perspective: the choice of modelling tool and the role of cost-benefit analysis, energy poverty in the transport sector and electric vehicle deployment. (author) [fr

Analysis of Economic Burden of Seasonal Influenza: An Actuarial Based Conceptual Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. S. N. Perera

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Analysing the economic burden of the seasonal influenza is highly essential due to the large number of outbreaks in recent years. Mathematical and actuarial models can be considered as management tools to understand the dynamical behavior, predict the risk, and compute it. This study is an attempt to develop conceptual model to investigate the economic burden due to seasonal influenza. The compartment SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible model is used to capture the dynamical behavior of influenza. Considering the current investment and future medical care expenditure as premium payment and benefit (claim, respectively, the insurance and actuarial based conceptual model is proposed to model the present economic burden due to the spread of influenza. Simulation is carried out to demonstrate the variation of the present economic burden with respect to model parameters. The sensitivity of the present economic burden is studied with respect to the risk of disease spread. The basic reproduction is used to identify the risk of disease spread. Impact of the seasonality is studied by introducing the seasonally varying infection rate. The proposed model provides theoretical background to investigate the economic burden of seasonal influenza.

Modeling and techno-economic analysis of shale-to-liquid and coal-to-liquid fuels processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhou, Huairong; Yang, Siyu; Xiao, Honghua; Yang, Qingchun; Qian, Yu; Gao, Li

2016-01-01

To alleviate the conflict between oil supply and demand, Chinese government has accelerated exploration and exploitation of alternative oil productions. STL (Shale-to-liquid) processes and CTL (coal-to-liquid) processes are promising choices to supply oil. However, few analyses have been made on their energy efficiency and economic performance. This paper conducts a detailed analysis of a STL process and a CTL process based on mathematical modeling and simulation. Analysis shows that low efficiency of the STL process is due to low oil yield of the Fushun-type retorting technology. For the CTL process, the utility system provides near to 34% energy consumption of the total. This is because that CTL technologies are in early development and no heat integration between units is implemented. Economic analysis reveals that the total capital investment of the CTL process is higher than that of the STL process. The production cost of the CTL process is right on the same level as that of the STL process. For better techno-economic performance, it is suggested to develop a new retorting technology of high oil yield for the STL process. The remaining retorting gas should be converted to hydrogen and then used for shale oil hydrogenation. For the CTL process, developing an appropriate heat network is an efficient way to apply heat integration. In addition, the CTL process is intended to be integrated with hydrogen rich gas to adjust H_2/CO for better resource utilization. - Highlights: • Aspen Plus software is used for modeling and simulation of a shale-to-liquid (STL) and a coal-to-liquid (CTL) processes. • Techno-economic analysis of STL and CTL processes is conducted. • Suggestions are given for improving energy efficiency and economic performance of STL and CTL processes.

The methodology of energy policy-making in economical models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Poursina, B.

1998-08-01

Scrutiny and careful study in energy is a subject that in human science has been investigated from different point of view. The expansion of this research, because of its importance and effect in different dimensions of human life, has also arrived in the field of political and economic sciences. Economics evaluates the energy phenomenon at the side of elements such as labor, capital and technology in the production functions of firms. The nature of these discussions is mainly from the viewpoint of micro analyses. Nevertheless, the variation and challenges concerning energy and environment during the recent decades and the economists` detailed investigations in its analysis and evaluation have led to the arrival of energy discussions in a special shape in macro planning and large economic models. The paper compares various energy models - EFDM, MEDEE, MIDAS and HERMES. This extent of planning and consequently modelling which lacks a background in the processes of economic researches, deals with analysis of energy and economics reacting effects. Modelling of energy-economy interaction and energy policy in modeling macroeconomics large models are new ideas in energy studies and economics. 7 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab.

Economic Modelling in Institutional Economic Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wadim Strielkowski

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Our paper is centered around the formation of theory of institutional modelling that includes principles and ideas reflecting the laws of societal development within the framework of institutional economic theory. We scrutinize and discuss the scientific principles of this institutional modelling that are increasingly postulated by the classics of institutional theory and find their way into the basics of the institutional economics. We propose scientific ideas concerning the new innovative approaches to institutional modelling. These ideas have been devised and developed on the basis of the results of our own original design, as well as on the formalisation and measurements of economic institutions, their functioning and evolution. Moreover, we consider the applied aspects of the institutional theory of modelling and employ them in our research for formalizing our results and maximising the practical outcome of our paper. Our results and findings might be useful for the researchers and stakeholders searching for the systematic and comprehensive description of institutional level modelling, the principles involved in this process and the main provisions of the institutional theory of economic modelling.

A regional scale modeling framework combining biogeochemical model with life cycle and economic analysis for integrated assessment of cropping systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Tabatabaie, Seyed Mohammad Hossein; Bolte, John P; Murthy, Ganti S

2018-06-01

The goal of this study was to integrate a crop model, DNDC (DeNitrification-DeComposition), with life cycle assessment (LCA) and economic analysis models using a GIS-based integrated platform, ENVISION. The integrated model enables LCA practitioners to conduct integrated economic analysis and LCA on a regional scale while capturing the variability of soil emissions due to variation in regional factors during production of crops and biofuel feedstocks. In order to evaluate the integrated model, the corn-soybean cropping system in Eagle Creek Watershed, Indiana was studied and the integrated model was used to first model the soil emissions and then conduct the LCA as well as economic analysis. The results showed that the variation in soil emissions due to variation in weather is high causing some locations to be carbon sink in some years and source of CO 2 in other years. In order to test the model under different scenarios, two tillage scenarios were defined: 1) conventional tillage (CT) and 2) no tillage (NT) and analyzed with the model. The overall GHG emissions for the corn-soybean cropping system was simulated and results showed that the NT scenario resulted in lower soil GHG emissions compared to CT scenario. Moreover, global warming potential (GWP) of corn ethanol from well to pump varied between 57 and 92gCO 2 -eq./MJ while GWP under the NT system was lower than that of the CT system. The cost break-even point was calculated as $3612.5/ha in a two year corn-soybean cropping system and the results showed that under low and medium prices for corn and soybean most of the farms did not meet the break-even point. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The impact of the British model on economic growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simon György Jr.

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The paper is searching for an answer to the question how the British model affected economic development in its mother country, the United Kingdom. The statistical analysis, models of mathematical economics and econometric investigation make it probable to conclude that there was a substantial difference in success between the Thatcherite and the Blairite economic policies; the latter proved more effective. It is particularly remarkable that the Blairite model, connecting privatization with a successful employment policy, reduced unemployment and social sensitivity, has not only speeded up economic growth but also improved economic equilibrium, curtailing, among others, the budget deficit.

Economic conditions, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease: analysis of the Icelandic economic collapse.

Science.gov (United States)

Birgisdóttir, Kristín Helga; Jónsson, Stefán Hrafn; Ásgeirsdóttir, Tinna Laufey

2017-12-01

Previous research has found a positive short-term relationship between the 2008 collapse and hypertension in Icelandic males. With Iceland's economy experiencing a phase of economic recovery, an opportunity to pursue a longer-term analysis of the collapse has emerged. Using data from a nationally representative sample, fixed-effect estimations and mediation analyses were performed to explore the relationship between the Icelandic economic collapse in 2008 and the longer-term impact on hypertension and cardiovascular health. A sensitivity analysis was carried out with pooled logit models estimated as well as an alternative dependent variable. Our attrition analysis revealed that results for cardiovascular diseases were affected by attrition, but not results from estimations on the relationship between the economic crisis and hypertension. When compared to the boom year 2007, our results point to an increased probability of Icelandic women having hypertension in the year 2012, when the Icelandic economy had recovered substantially from the economic collapse in 2008. This represents a deviation from pre-crisis trends, thus suggesting a true economic-recovery impact on hypertension.

An Idealized Cognitive Model Analysis of Metaphors in American Economic News Report

Science.gov (United States)

Qin, Yang

2018-03-01

On the basis of the theoretical framework of Lakoff’s Conceptual Metaphor, the paper researches into the cognitive model of conceptual metaphors in American Economic News Reports. Moreover, the paper tries to analyze economic discourse by the application of Idealized Cognitive Model of its metaphorical thinking combined with cultural model and reflect the ideology of the media. It aims to help English learners ponder the implied meaning the economic news reports conveyed and take a new look at metaphors between the lines.

Hydro-economic modelling in mining catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Ossa Moreno, J. S.; McIntyre, N.; Rivera, D.; Smart, J. C. R.

2017-12-01

Hydro-economic models are gaining momentum because of their capacity to model both the physical processes related to water supply, and socio-economic factors determining water demand. This is particularly valuable in the midst of the large uncertainty upon future climate conditions and social trends. Agriculture, urban uses and environmental flows have received a lot of attention from researchers, as these tend to be the main consumers of water in most catchments. Mine water demand, although very important in several small and medium-sized catchments worldwide, has received less attention and only few models have attempted to reproduce its dynamics with other users. This paper describes an on-going project that addresses this gap, by developing a hydro-economic model in the upper Aconcagua River in Chile. This is a mountain catchment with large scale mining and hydro-power users at high altitudes, and irrigation areas in a downstream valley. Relevant obstacles to the model included the lack of input climate data, which is a common feature in several mining areas, the complex hydrological processes in the area and the difficulty of quantifying the value of water used by mines. A semi-distributed model developed within the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP), was calibrated to reproduce water supply, and this was complemented with an analysis of the value of water for mining based on two methods; water markets and an analysis of its production processes. Agriculture and other users were included through methods commonly used in similar models. The outputs help understanding the value of water in the catchment, and its sensitivity to changes in climate variables, market prices, environmental regulations and changes in the production of minerals, crops and energy. The results of the project highlight the importance of merging hydrology and socio-economic calculations in mining regions, in order to better understand trade-offs and cost of opportunity of using

R.M. Solow Adjusted Model of Economic Growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ion Gh. Rosca

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Besides the models of M. Keynes, R.F. Harrod, E. Domar, D. Romer, Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans etc., the R.M. Solow model is part of the category which characterizes the economic growth. The paper proposes the study of the R.M. Solow adjusted model of economic growth, while the adjustment consisting in the model adaptation to the Romanian economic characteristics. The article is the first one from a three paper series dedicated to the macroeconomic modelling theme, using the R.M. Solow model, such as: “Measurement of the economic growth and extensions of the R.M. Solow adjusted model” and “Evolution scenarios at the Romanian economy level using the R.M. Solow adjusted model”. The analysis part of the model is based on the study of the equilibrium to the continuous case with some interpretations of the discreet one, by using the state diagram. The optimization problem at the economic level is also used; it is built up of a specified number of representative consumers and firms in order to reveal the interaction between these elements.

Using Agent-Based Models in the Analysis and Forecast of Socio-Economic Development of Territories

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vitalii Nikolaevich Makoveev

2016-11-01

by developers of agent-based models of socio-economic development and prospects for further research in this field. It has been established that the agent-based approach to the modeling of socio-economic development of territories is very promising, it helps improve the efficiency of forecasting regional development and management decisions due to a very detailed and realistic reconstruction of the internal structure of a region in the form of separate independent economic entities that interact with each other and with external environment, and also due to the possibility of fast processing and analysis of large amounts of data

The different modes of hydro-economic analysis (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Harou, J. J.; Binions, O.; Erfani, T.

2013-12-01

In the face of growing water demands, climate change and spatial and temporal water access variability, accurately assessing the economic impacts of proposed water resource management changes is useful. The objective of this project funded by UK Water Industry Research was to present and demonstrate a framework for identifying and using the ';value of water' to enable water utilities and their regulators to make better decisions. A hydro-economic model can help evaluate water management options in terms of their hydrological and economic impact at different locations throughout a catchment over time. In this talk we discuss three modes in which hydro-economic models can be implemented: evaluative, behavioral and prescriptive. In evaluation mode economic water demand and benefit functions are used to post-process water resource management model results to assess the economic impacts (over space and time) of a policy under consideration. In behavioral hydro-economic models users are represented as agents and the economics is used to help predict their actions. In prescriptive mode optimization is used to find the most economically efficient management actions such as allocation patterns or source selection. These three types of hydro-economic analysis are demonstrated on a UK watershed (Great River Ouse) that includes 97 different water abstractors from amongst the public water supply, agriculture, industry and energy plant cooling sectors. The following issues under dry and normal historical conditions were investigated: Supply/demand investment planning, societal cost of environmental flows, water market prices, and scarcity-sensitive charges for water rights. The talk discusses which hydro-economic modeling mode is used to study each of these issues and why; example results are shown and discussed. The topic of how hydro-economic models can be built and deployed effectively is covered along with how existing water utility operational and planning tools can be

Real analysis with economic applications

CERN Document Server

Ok, Efe A

2011-01-01

There are many mathematics textbooks on real analysis, but they focus on topics not readily helpful for studying economic theory or they are inaccessible to most graduate students of economics. Real Analysis with Economic Applications aims to fill this gap by providing an ideal textbook and reference on real analysis tailored specifically to the concerns of such students. The emphasis throughout is on topics directly relevant to economic theory. In addition to addressing the usual topics of real analysis, this book discusses the elements of order theory, convex analysis, optimization, correspondences, linear and nonlinear functional analysis, fixed-point theory, dynamic programming, and calculus of variations. Efe Ok complements the mathematical development with applications that provide concise introductions to various topics from economic theory, including individual decision theory and games, welfare economics, information theory, general equilibrium and finance, and intertemporal economics. Moreover, a...

The economic impact of pilgrimage: An economic impact analysis of pilgrimage expenditures in Galicia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Graave, Elisabeth J.E.; Klijs, J.; Heijman, W.J.M.

2017-01-01

In this article, we calculate the economic impact of pilgrimage to Santiago de Compostela in the NUTS 2 region Galicia (Spain) in 2010. This economic impact is relevant to policymakers and other stakeholders dealing with religious tourism in Galicia. The analysis is based on the Input-Output model.

Behavioral economics and regulatory analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Robinson, Lisa A; Hammitt, James K

2011-09-01

Behavioral economics has captured the interest of scholars and the general public by demonstrating ways in which individuals make decisions that appear irrational. While increasing attention is being focused on the implications of this research for the design of risk-reducing policies, less attention has been paid to how it affects the economic valuation of policy consequences. This article considers the latter issue, reviewing the behavioral economics literature and discussing its implications for the conduct of benefit-cost analysis, particularly in the context of environmental, health, and safety regulations. We explore three concerns: using estimates of willingness to pay or willingness to accept compensation for valuation, considering the psychological aspects of risk when valuing mortality-risk reductions, and discounting future consequences. In each case, we take the perspective that analysts should avoid making judgments about whether values are "rational" or "irrational." Instead, they should make every effort to rely on well-designed studies, using ranges, sensitivity analysis, or probabilistic modeling to reflect uncertainty. More generally, behavioral research has led some to argue for a more paternalistic approach to policy analysis. We argue instead for continued focus on describing the preferences of those affected, while working to ensure that these preferences are based on knowledge and careful reflection. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Economic analysis of nuclear power generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Song, Ki Dong; Choi, Young Myung; Kim, Hwa Sup; Lee, Man Ki; Moon, Kee Hwan; Kim, Seung Su

1997-12-01

The major contents in this study are as follows : - long-term forecast to the year of 2040 is provided for nuclear electricity generating capacity by means of logistic curve fitting method. - the role of nuclear power in a national economy is analyzed in terms of environmental regulation. To do so, energy-economy linked model is developed. By using this model, the benefits from the introduction of nuclear power in Korea are estimated. Study on inter-industry economic activity for nuclear industry is carried out by means of an input-output analysis. Nuclear industry is examined in terms of inducement effect of production, of value-added, and of import. - economic analysis of nuclear power generation is performed especially taking into consideration wide variations of foreign currency exchange rate. The result is expressed in levelized generating costs. (author). 27 refs., 24 tabs., 44 figs

An economic model for seaborne oil trade

OpenAIRE

Hong, Kian-Wah

1996-01-01

This thesis aims to provide some insights as to how oil prices and oil flows might vary with the carrying capacity of the tanker fleet as affected by political events. It provides an econometric analysis of tanker freight rates in the modern era and proposes a mathematical (quadratic) programming economic model that links the crude oil market to the supply elasticity of the world oil tanker fleet based on a competitive economy. The economic model can be considered as a version of the Walras-C...

Firm dynamic analysis for urban land use and economic growth modelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Che'Man, N.; Sabri, S.; Hosni, N.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

2013-01-01

In urban growth processes, urbanisation is highly influenced by economic growth which triggers the dynamics of economic agents and land uses. This is consisted of complex subsystems which need sophisticated methods like agent-based modelling and simulation to understand the pattern, behaviour and

PLANNING AND MODEL CUBAN ECONOMIC

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kenilia Mariela Villalón-Madrazo

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Since the Revolution´s Triumph the country assumes that the planning is the axis, as instrument for the economic acting and of the constant development of the socialist relationships of production and it traces the rules required for the best operation in the Cuban economy, and it implants with these concepts the centralized economic pattern that responded to the existent outline in the Soviet Union and the European socialist countries, of centralized planning based on the material balances. In the current situation of the Cuban economy it is thought about bringing up to date the economic pattern in which will stay as priority the planning and not the market. Leaving what it is mentioned above, presently in this work is carried out the analysis of the economic models in Cuba and its linking with the planning, with the objective of giving to know how the pattern economic Cuban is implanted from the first years of the revolution and it has always been the planning its fundamental axis, and as the same one it has left modernizing during the 53 years of the Revolution. It has been carried out an analysis framed approximately in 10 year-old periods pointing out the internal and external factors that have impacted in the Cuban pattern, their adjustments and the role of planning. 

Dynamic analysis of savings and economic growth in Nigeria ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Dynamic analysis of savings and economic growth in Nigeria. ... a trivariate dynamic Granger causality model with savings, economic growth and foreign ... It is recommended that in the short run, policies in Nigeria should be geared towards ...

​An Overview on the Principles of Decision Analysis and Economic Modeling in Healthcare and an Introduction to Advanced Software Treeage Pro 2011

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Imani

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Background and Objectives : Decision analysis models are conceptual framework for most of the cost - effectiveness (CEA and cost-utility (CUA analyses and this model increasingly plays an important role in decision making. The aim of this study was to improve the understanding and use of decision analysis and economic modeling techniques with a particular emphasis on decision trees and Markov modeling. Material and Methods : A review of the published literature was performed using the seven search engines and databases which include Web of Science, PubMed, Cochrane, Embase, EconLit, EBSCO and HEED with key words including: Decision Analysis, Health Economic Modeling and TreeAge and their combination to describe the structure, application, and limitations of the more popular decision analytic methods including decision trees, Markov models, and sensitivity analysis in healthcare. Results : We identified 19 relevant published articles. The results indicated that decision analytical models are widely used in economic evaluation of health care interventions with the objective of generating valuable information to assist health policy decision-makers to allocate scarce health care resources efficiently. Conclusion : Decision analytic modeling allows a rational, feasible, scientific, and timely approach to measure the efficiency of new medical technologies in health care by using the best available evidence of different sources to produce detailed estimates of the clinical and economic indicators. Despite TreeAge Pro software increasing use in developing countries as economic modeling studies of various health interventions, unfortunately its role and impact are not known in Iran yet. ​

Stability analysis on an economic epidemiological model with vaccination Pages : - , and.

Science.gov (United States)

Avusuglo, Wisdom S; Abdella, Kenzu; Feng, Wenying

2017-08-01

In this paper, an economic epidemiological model with vaccination is studied. The stability of the endemic steady-state is analyzed and some bifurcation properties of the system are investigated. It is established that the system exhibits saddle-point and period-doubling bifurcations when adult susceptible individuals are vaccinated. Furthermore, it is shown that susceptible individuals also have the tendency of opting for more number of contacts even if the vaccine is inefficacious and thus causes the disease endemic to increase in the long run. Results from sensitivity analysis with specific disease parameters are also presented. Finally, it is shown that the qualitative behaviour of the system is affected by contact levels.

ALMR deployment economic analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delene, J.G.; Fuller, L.C.; Hudson, C.R.

1993-06-01

This analysis seeks to model and evaluate the economics of the use of Advanced Liquid Metal Reactors (ALMR) as a component of this country's future electricity generation mix. The ALMR concept has the ability to utilize as fuel the fissile material contained in previously irradiated nuclear fuel (i.e., spent fuel). While not a requirement for the successful deployment of ALMR power plant technology, the reprocessing of spent fuel from light water reactors (LWR) is necessary for any rapid introduction of ALMR power plants. In addition, the reprocessing of LWR spent fuel may reduce the number of high level waste repositories needed in the future by burning the long-lived actinides produced in the fission process. With this study, the relative economics of a number of potential scenarios related to these issues are evaluated. While not encompassing the full range of all possibilities, the cases reported here provide an indication of the potential costs, timings, and relative economic attractiveness of ALMR deployment

Reasearch on Regional Differences Between China's Economic Growth and Export Trade Based on the Analysis of a Random Effects Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rui Chen

2007-06-01

Full Text Available This paper analyzes the factors that influence the economic growth of the provinces of China by means of a Panel Data Model. Traditional analytical methods of economic growth are compared with a Panel Data Model. The results of empirical research indicate that the changes of fixed assets investment, gross domestic export, and macroeconomic policies will affect China's GDP. It is finally concluded that export is the driving force behind economic growth in China. This conclusion is quite different from traditional analysis.

Modeling the Economic Behavior of Households within the Context of Development of Economic Thought

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivanov Roman V.

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The main purpose of the publication is to study formation of the household economic behavior modeling in the context of development of economic thought and methods of the economic-mathematical modeling. The study was carried out under the assumption that, when studying the development of theoretical and methodological foundations of the economic behavior of households one must take into account not only the history of development of economic theory, but also the transformation of attitudes in other areas of human knowledge, in particular the paradigm shift in scientific thinking. It has been specified that the massive use of mathematical methods in economics is associated with formation of the marginal theory and at the same time – with the proliferation of the marginal analysis. At the present stage, the economic behavior of households is being analyzed in the terms of concepts such as neoclassicism, institutionalism and behaviorism. But by dividing the concepts of «individual» and «household», it can be argued that precisely the institutionalism in conjunction with synergistic approach provide the basis for elaboration of strategies for the economic behavior of households, ensuring their economic security.

Integrating economic analysis and the science of climate instability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hall, Darwin C.; Behl, Richard J.

2006-01-01

Scientific understanding of climate change and climate instability has undergone a revolution in the past decade with the discovery of numerous past climate transitions so rapid, and so unlike the expectation of smooth climate changes, that they would have previously been unbelievable to the scientific community. Models commonly used by economists to assess the wisdom of adapting to human-induced climate change, rather than averting it, lack the ability to incorporate this new scientific knowledge. Here, we identify and explain the nature of recent scientific advances, and describe the key ways in which failure to reflect new knowledge in economic analysis skews the results of that analysis. This includes the understanding that economic optimization models reliant on convexity are inherently unable to determine an 'optimal' policy solution. It is incumbent on economists to understand and to incorporate the new science in their models, and on climatologists and other scientists to understand the basis of economic models so that they can assist in this essential effort. (author)

ANALYSIS OF FACTORS WHICH AFFECTING THE ECONOMIC GROWTH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suparna Wijaya

2017-03-01

Full Text Available High economic growth and sustainable process are main conditions for sustainability of economic country development. They are also become measures of the success of the country's economy. Factors which tested in this study are economic and non-economic factors which impacting economic development. This study has a goal to explain the factors that influence on macroeconomic Indonesia. It used linear regression modeling approach. The analysis result showed that Tax Amnesty, Exchange Rate, Inflation, and interest rate, they jointly can bring effect which amounted to 77.6% on economic growth whereas the remaining 22.4% is the influenced by other variables which not observed in this study. Keywords: tax amnesty, exchange rates, inflation, SBI and economic growth

Economical analysis based on a simplified model of micro distillery

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bristoti, A.; Adams, R.

1987-01-01

The investment costs of the hydrate alcohol distillery as well as the energy balance of its production made inviable its diffusion on a small scale. The present economical analysis is based on a simplified model of micro distillery where the reduction on investment costs in based on technical data based on the possibility of the utilization of an hydrate alcohol with a higher water constant than the usual, i. e. around 85 0 GL. The engineering project of this plant eliminates all pumps, all the liquids (water, sugar cane, syrup and wine) are fed by gravity. The bagasse is considered a noble by-product and it is utilized in poultry industry as a substitute of wood dust. All the heat needs of the micro distillery are supplied by wood. (author)

Impact Analysis of Economic Linkages of South Korea with North Korea Using a CGE Model

OpenAIRE

Kim, Euijune; Shin, Hyewon

2014-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to estimate impacts of core infrastructure investments in North Korea on South and North Koreas. The investment expenditures of core infrastructure projects in North Korea are calibrated as 9.35 billion US$ including highway, railroad and industrial complex. Since South and North Koreas are based on market and planned economies respectively, the Computable General Equilibrium model is applied to the economic analysis of South Korea and an Input-Output Model for th...

Parametric sensitivity analysis of an agro-economic model of management of irrigation water

Science.gov (United States)

El Ouadi, Ihssan; Ouazar, Driss; El Menyari, Younesse

2015-04-01

The current work aims to build an analysis and decision support tool for policy options concerning the optimal allocation of water resources, while allowing a better reflection on the issue of valuation of water by the agricultural sector in particular. Thus, a model disaggregated by farm type was developed for the rural town of Ait Ben Yacoub located in the east Morocco. This model integrates economic, agronomic and hydraulic data and simulates agricultural gross margin across in this area taking into consideration changes in public policy and climatic conditions, taking into account the competition for collective resources. To identify the model input parameters that influence over the results of the model, a parametric sensitivity analysis is performed by the "One-Factor-At-A-Time" approach within the "Screening Designs" method. Preliminary results of this analysis show that among the 10 parameters analyzed, 6 parameters affect significantly the objective function of the model, it is in order of influence: i) Coefficient of crop yield response to water, ii) Average daily gain in weight of livestock, iii) Exchange of livestock reproduction, iv) maximum yield of crops, v) Supply of irrigation water and vi) precipitation. These 6 parameters register sensitivity indexes ranging between 0.22 and 1.28. Those results show high uncertainties on these parameters that can dramatically skew the results of the model or the need to pay particular attention to their estimates. Keywords: water, agriculture, modeling, optimal allocation, parametric sensitivity analysis, Screening Designs, One-Factor-At-A-Time, agricultural policy, climate change.

Economic analysis of Marine Protected Areas: Bioeconomic Modeling and Economic Valuation Approaches

OpenAIRE

Bui, Bich Xuan

2017-01-01

The papers 2 and 3 of this thesis are not available in Munin. Paper 2: Xuan, B. B., Sandorf, E. D., Aanesen, M.: “Informing Management Strategies for a Reserve: Results from a Discrete Choice Experiment Survey”. (Manuscript). Paper 3: Xuan, B. B.: “Extractive and Non-extractive Values of a Marine Protected Area: A Bio-economic Model Application". (Manuscript). Marine protected areas (MPAs) are often established for conservation objectives. Benefits provided by MPAs exceed pure biod...

Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

2008-12-01

Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

Coupling Climate Models and Forward-Looking Economic Models

Science.gov (United States)

Judd, K.; Brock, W. A.

2010-12-01

Authors: Dr. Kenneth L. Judd, Hoover Institution, and Prof. William A. Brock, University of Wisconsin Current climate models range from General Circulation Models (GCM’s) with millions of degrees of freedom to models with few degrees of freedom. Simple Energy Balance Climate Models (EBCM’s) help us understand the dynamics of GCM’s. The same is true in economics with Computable General Equilibrium Models (CGE’s) where some models are infinite-dimensional multidimensional differential equations but some are simple models. Nordhaus (2007, 2010) couples a simple EBCM with a simple economic model. One- and two- dimensional ECBM’s do better at approximating damages across the globe and positive and negative feedbacks from anthroprogenic forcing (North etal. (1981), Wu and North (2007)). A proper coupling of climate and economic systems is crucial for arriving at effective policies. Brock and Xepapadeas (2010) have used Fourier/Legendre based expansions to study the shape of socially optimal carbon taxes over time at the planetary level in the face of damages caused by polar ice cap melt (as discussed by Oppenheimer, 2005) but in only a “one dimensional” EBCM. Economists have used orthogonal polynomial expansions to solve dynamic, forward-looking economic models (Judd, 1992, 1998). This presentation will couple EBCM climate models with basic forward-looking economic models, and examine the effectiveness and scaling properties of alternative solution methods. We will use a two dimensional EBCM model on the sphere (Wu and North, 2007) and a multicountry, multisector regional model of the economic system. Our aim will be to gain insights into intertemporal shape of the optimal carbon tax schedule, and its impact on global food production, as modeled by Golub and Hertel (2009). We will initially have limited computing resources and will need to focus on highly aggregated models. However, this will be more complex than existing models with forward

INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR MODELING ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Boldeanu Dana Maria

2009-05-01

Full Text Available The analysis of the most important financial and economic indicators at the level of some organizations from the same sector of activity, the selection of performance ratios and generating a particular analysis model help companies to move from the desire

Economic modeling of HIV treatments.

Science.gov (United States)

Simpson, Kit N

2010-05-01

To review the general literature on microeconomic modeling and key points that must be considered in the general assessment of economic modeling reports, discuss the evolution of HIV economic models and identify models that illustrate this development over time, as well as examples of current studies. Recommend improvements in HIV economic modeling. Recent economic modeling studies of HIV include examinations of scaling up antiretroviral (ARV) in South Africa, screening prior to use of abacavir, preexposure prophylaxis, early start of ARV in developing countries and cost-effectiveness comparisons of specific ARV drugs using data from clinical trials. These studies all used extensively published second-generation Markov models in their analyses. There have been attempts to simplify approaches to cost-effectiveness estimates by using simple decision trees or cost-effectiveness calculations with short-time horizons. However, these approaches leave out important cumulative economic effects that will not appear early in a treatment. Many economic modeling studies were identified in the 'gray' literature, but limited descriptions precluded an assessment of their adherence to modeling guidelines, and thus to the validity of their findings. There is a need for developing third-generation models to accommodate new knowledge about adherence, adverse effects, and viral resistance.

A thermo-economic analysis of the separation process of an ethylene plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yi, T.; Jan-Min, S.

1989-01-01

This study has established a model of thermo-economic balance for chemical processes. The general rules to form the exergy-price constraint equation and the equations of some major types of the units have been proposed. With this model, a thermo-economic analysis for the separation process of an Ethylene Plant has been studied. The paper has made an analysis for the effects of different boundary exergy prices on the process evaluation. The result shows that the thermo-economic analysis for a process, using the method advanced in here, merely depends on the process construction and the ratio of supplying exergy-prices. As soon as the ratio is well-matched, a similar analogic analysis may be set up for the same type of processes in different economic environments

Economic analysis of alternatives for optimizing energy use in manufacturing companies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Méndez-Piñero, Mayra Ivelisse; Colón-Vázquez, Melitza

2013-01-01

The manufacturing companies are one of the main consumers of energy. The increment in global warming and the instability in the petroleum oil market have motivated companies to find alternatives to reduce energy use. In the academic literature several researchers have demonstrated that optimization models can be successfully used to reduce energy use. This research presents the use of an optimization model to identify feasible economic alternatives to reduce energy use. The economic analysis methods used were the payback and the internal rate of return. The optimization model developed in this research was applied and validated using an electronic manufacturing company case study. The results demonstrate that the main variables affecting the economic feasibility of the alternatives are the economic analysis method and the initial implementation costs. Several scenarios were analyzed and the best results show that the manufacturing company could save up to $78,000 in three years if the recommendations based on the optimization model results are implemented. - Highlights: • Evaluate top consumers of energy in manufacturing: A/C, compressed air, and lighting • Economic analysis of alternatives to optimize energy used in manufacturing • Comparison of payback method and internal rate of return method with real data • Results demonstrate that the company could generate savings in energy use

ECONOMIC MODELING PROCESSES USING MATLAB

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anamaria G. MACOVEI

2008-06-01

Full Text Available To study economic phenomena and processes using mathem atical modeling, and to determine the approximatesolution to a problem we need to choose a method of calculation and a numerical computer program, namely thepackage of programs MatLab. Any economic process or phenomenon is a mathematical description of h is behavior,and thus draw up an economic and mathematical model that has the following stages: formulation of the problem, theanalysis process modeling, the production model and design verification, validation and implementation of the model.This article is presented an economic model and its modeling is using mathematical equations and software packageMatLab, which helps us approximation effective solution. As data entry is considered the net cost, the cost of direct andtotal cost and the link between them. I presented the basic formula for determining the total cost. Economic modelcalculations were made in MatLab software package and with graphic representation of its interpretation of the resultsachieved in terms of our specific problem.

Thermochemical production of liquid fuels from biomass: Thermo-economic modeling, process design and process integration analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tock, Laurence; Gassner, Martin; Marechal, Francois

2010-01-01

A detailed thermo-economic model combining thermodynamics with economic analysis and considering different technological alternatives for the thermochemical production of liquid fuels from lignocellulosic biomass is presented. Energetic and economic models for the production of Fischer-Tropsch fuel (FT), methanol (MeOH) and dimethyl ether (DME) by means of biomass drying with steam or flue gas, directly or indirectly heated fluidized bed or entrained flow gasification, hot or cold gas cleaning, fuel synthesis and upgrading are reviewed and developed. The process is integrated and the optimal utility system is computed. The competitiveness of the different process options is compared systematically with regard to energetic, economic and environmental considerations. At several examples, it is highlighted that process integration is a key element that allows for considerably increasing the performance by optimal utility integration and energy conversion. The performance computations of some exemplary technology scenarios of integrated plants yield overall energy efficiencies of 59.8% (crude FT-fuel), 52.5% (MeOH) and 53.5% (DME), and production costs of 89, 128 and 113 Euro MWh -1 on fuel basis. The applied process design approach allows to evaluate the economic competitiveness compared to fossil fuels, to study the influence of the biomass and electricity price and to project for different plant capacities. Process integration reveals in particular potential energy savings and waste heat valorization. Based on this work, the most promising options for the polygeneration of fuel, power and heat will be determined in a future thermo-economic optimization.

Economical modelling of social and moral norms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nyborg, Karine

2001-01-01

Social norms and moral motivations are often ignored in economic models. It is possible, however, to model social and moral norms within the framework of economical theory. This may be useful even if the exposition is necessarily simplified. The article gives some examples. An analysis shows how the ''No Smoking Act'' may have led to a change in social norms in Norway and indirectly changed the behaviour of smokers in places where this act does not apply. Behaviour with moral motivation may also be affected by changes in regulations, economic incentives or other external conditions. For example, a more efficient collection system for source-separated waste may induce people to sharpen the moral claim on their own efforts. Indeed, interviews show that imposing a fee upon people not volunteering in communal work may cause the attendance to drop further

Economic analysis of light brown apple moth using GIS and quantitative modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Glenn Fowler; Lynn Garrett; Alison Neeley; Roger Magarey; Dan Borchert; Brian. Spears

2011-01-01

We conducted an economic analysis of the light brown apple moth (LBAM), (piphyas postvittana (Walker)), whose presence in California has resulted in a regulatory program. Our objective was to quantitatively characterize the economic costs to apple, grape, orange, and pear crops that would result from LBAM's introduction into the continental...

Matrix Methods and Models of Economic Analysis in the Marketing Activity of Higher Educational Establishments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Natalia Stebliuk

2018-05-01

Full Text Available On the present stage of the development of educational environment, it is necessary to use the scientific tools for understanding the market patterns of the interaction of demand and supply of educational services, which will allow not only to navigate the consumer preferences but also to form them. It is in these circumstances that it is extremely important to study changes in the volume of demand for educational services in order to adapt them to the system of higher education. The aim of the article is to substantiate the theoretical positions and develop practical recommendations for the definition of the competitive marketing strategy of higher education organizations in the market of educational services with the help of modern approaches and methods of economic-mathematical modeling. The practical significance of the obtained results is the introduction of methodological provisions for forecasting the demand and supply of educational services for higher educational establishments. The complexity and interdependence of managerial problems in the system of higher education require new ideas and approaches, which necessitates the search for new definite solutions, namely: the research paper offers the method of optimal distribution of budgetary places of the university by means of practical application of the theory of system constraints and the theory of fuzzy sets. Along with that, the calculation of the optimal number of students of the corresponding specialty with the help of cluster analysis has been carried out. In addition, an important place for improvement and development is taken by the economics and mathematical methods and methods of linear programming, they are effective means of identifying the most influential factors in achieving the goals of a higher educational establishment and justifying the marketing strategy of its development in modern conditions. To predict the quantitative values of social and economic indicators

Findings and recommendations of the ONWI peer review of the SocioEconomic Analysis of Repository Siting (SEARS) modeling system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cluett, C.; Bjornstad, D.; DeVeny, G.; Ellis, C.B.; Goldstone, S.E.; Ritchey, P.N.; Winter, R.

1985-12-01

A Peer Review Group was convened by the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (ONWI) of the Battelle Project Management Division (BPMD) to provide an outside professional assessment of the SocioEconomic Analysis of Repository Siting (SEARS) modeling system. The SEARS model is intended to provide detailed, site-specific projections by jurisdiction and political subdivision of the economic, demographic, infrastructure, and fiscal effects of constructing, operating, and decommissioning a geologic repository for the isolation of nuclear waste in one or more locations. In addition, it is expected to aid in the indentification of appropriate local correction actions and to aid in monitoring socioeconomic changes. The SEARS model will address program-related issues, local concerns, and statutory requirements relating to economic-demographic impacts; employ technically defensible methods and procedures; be adequately and appropriately documented, verified, and validated; and provide results that are consistent and replicable

Technological Options to Ameliorate Waste Treatment of Intensive Pig Production in China：An Analysis Based on Bio-Economic Model

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

LU Wen-cong; MA Yong-xi; Holger Bergmann

2014-01-01

Ameliorating waste treatment by technological improvements affects the economic and the ecological-environment beneifts of intensive pig production. The objective of the research was to develop and test a method to determine the technical optimization to ameliorate waste treatment methods and gain insight into the relationship between technological options and the economic and ecological effects. We developed an integrated bio-economic model which incorporates the farming production and waste disposal systems to simulate the impact of technological improvements in pig manure treatment on economic and environmental benefits for the case of a pilot farm in Beijing, China. Based on different waste treatment technology options, three scenarios are applied for the simulation analysis of the model. The simulation results reveal that the economic-environmental beneifts of the livestock farm could be improved by reducing the cropland manure application and increasing the composting production with the current technologies. Nevertheless, the technical efifciency, the waste treatment capacity and the economic beneifts could be further improved by the introduction of new technologies. It implies that technological and economic support policies should be implemented comprehensively on waste disposal and resource utilization to promote sustainable development in intensive livestock production in China.

Mathematical model in economic environmental problems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nahorski, Z. [Polish Academy of Sciences, Systems Research Inst. (Poland); Ravn, H.F. [Risoe National Lab. (Denmark)

1996-12-31

The report contains a review of basic models and mathematical tools used in economic regulation problems. It starts with presentation of basic models of capital accumulation, resource depletion, pollution accumulation, and population growth, as well as construction of utility functions. Then the one-state variable model is discussed in details. The basic mathematical methods used consist of application of the maximum principle and phase plane analysis of the differential equations obtained as the necessary conditions of optimality. A summary of basic results connected with these methods is given in appendices. (au) 13 ills.; 17 refs.

Economic Consequence Analysis of Disasters: The ECAT Software Tool

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rose, Adam; Prager, Fynn; Chen, Zhenhua; Chatterjee, Samrat; Wei, Dan; Heatwole, Nathaniel; Warren, Eric

2017-04-15

This study develops a methodology for rapidly obtaining approximate estimates of the economic consequences from numerous natural, man-made and technological threats. This software tool is intended for use by various decision makers and analysts to obtain estimates rapidly. It is programmed in Excel and Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) to facilitate its use. This tool is called E-CAT (Economic Consequence Analysis Tool) and accounts for the cumulative direct and indirect impacts (including resilience and behavioral factors that significantly affect base estimates) on the U.S. economy. E-CAT is intended to be a major step toward advancing the current state of economic consequence analysis (ECA) and also contributing to and developing interest in further research into complex but rapid turnaround approaches. The essence of the methodology involves running numerous simulations in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for each threat, yielding synthetic data for the estimation of a single regression equation based on the identification of key explanatory variables (threat characteristics and background conditions). This transforms the results of a complex model, which is beyond the reach of most users, into a "reduced form" model that is readily comprehensible. Functionality has been built into E-CAT so that its users can switch various consequence categories on and off in order to create customized profiles of economic consequences of numerous risk events. E-CAT incorporates uncertainty on both the input and output side in the course of the analysis.

Technical and economic analysis of hydrogen refuelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nistor, Silviu; Dave, Saraansh; Fan, Zhong; Sooriyabandara, Mahesh

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Technical and economic models of a hydrogen station for vehicles refuelling. • Hydrogen demand from fuel cell electric vehicles modelled stochastically. • Study case based on a UK pilot project. • Operation of the H_2 station using combined energy from wind and power grid is preferred. • Return on investment of 5–10 years is possible for the hydrogen station. - Abstract: This paper focuses on technical and economic analysis of a hydrogen refilling station to provide operational insight through tight coupling of technical models of physical processes and economic models. This allows the dynamic relationships of the system to be captured and analysed to provide short/medium term analytical capability to support system design, planning, and financing. The modelling developed here highlights the need to closely link technical and economic models for technology led projects where technical capability and commercial feasibility are important. The results show that hydrogen fuel can be competitive with petrol on a GBP/KG basis if the return on investment period is over 10 years for PEM electrolysers and 5 for Alkaline electrolysers. We also show that subsidies on capital costs (as reflected by some R&D funding programs) make both PEM and Alkaline technologies cheaper than the equivalent price of petrol, which suggests more emphasis should be put on commercialising R&D funded projects as they have commercial advantages. The paper also shows that a combined wind and grid connected station is preferable so that a higher number of customers are served (i.e. minimum shortage of hydrogen).

Using hydro-economic modelling to investigate trade-offs between ecological and economic water management objectives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Riegels, Niels

is that land and water use levels predicted by the two approaches are essentially the same. The prediction that high-value irrigated crops will not replace low-value crops is not unreasonable given behavior observed in the baseline data set and highlights the limitations of using economic models calibrated......In regions where water scarcity exists, economic analysis can help identify ways to increase benefits of water use. The European Union’s Water Framework Directive (WFD), is an example of a law that requires the use of economic principles, approaches, and instruments in water resources management....... One of these instruments is water pricing. This study develops an approach for implementing the water pricing guidelines of the WFD at the river basin scale and then uses hydro-economic modelling to estimate the impacts of applying these guidelines. The central purpose of the WFD is the protection...

Complexity and the culture of economics: a sociological and inter-disciplinary analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hendrik Van den Berg

2012-05-01

Full Text Available This paper offers a sociological explanation for why the field of economics has so severely restricted the scope of its analysis to the point where it failed to foresee the financial crises, economic recessions, and other large shifts in economic activity that have characterized the global economy in recent decades. This paper’s analysis of the culture of economics draws heavily on the work of Pierre Bourdieu, the French sociologist who developed a useful framework with which to analyze the culture of an intellectual field like economics. Specifically, the paper describes how the neo-liberal doxa supports the restrictive neoclassical (marginalist modeling approach that is a central element of the habitus of mainstream economics. Bourdieu’s concept of symbolic violence shows how the orthodox economics culture perpetuates itself even in the face of the complete failure of the culture’s favored neoclassical and rational expectations models to anticipate recent macroeconomic crises. The paper concludes with some thoughts on how this understanding of the culture of economics can enable economists to free themselves from the oppressive culture of mainstream economics.

Pathology economic model tool: a novel approach to workflow and budget cost analysis in an anatomic pathology laboratory.

Science.gov (United States)

Muirhead, David; Aoun, Patricia; Powell, Michael; Juncker, Flemming; Mollerup, Jens

2010-08-01

The need for higher efficiency, maximum quality, and faster turnaround time is a continuous focus for anatomic pathology laboratories and drives changes in work scheduling, instrumentation, and management control systems. To determine the costs of generating routine, special, and immunohistochemical microscopic slides in a large, academic anatomic pathology laboratory using a top-down approach. The Pathology Economic Model Tool was used to analyze workflow processes at The Nebraska Medical Center's anatomic pathology laboratory. Data from the analysis were used to generate complete cost estimates, which included not only materials, consumables, and instrumentation but also specific labor and overhead components for each of the laboratory's subareas. The cost data generated by the Pathology Economic Model Tool were compared with the cost estimates generated using relative value units. Despite the use of automated systems for different processes, the workflow in the laboratory was found to be relatively labor intensive. The effect of labor and overhead on per-slide costs was significantly underestimated by traditional relative-value unit calculations when compared with the Pathology Economic Model Tool. Specific workflow defects with significant contributions to the cost per slide were identified. The cost of providing routine, special, and immunohistochemical slides may be significantly underestimated by traditional methods that rely on relative value units. Furthermore, a comprehensive analysis may identify specific workflow processes requiring improvement.

Interactive model to assess economics of anaerobic digestion of the farm

Science.gov (United States)

1981-08-01

An interactive computer model, to provide economic assessment for on the farm anaerobic digestion systems was designed. The model is accessed as part of the MASEC Models Library. It consists of two phases: engineering analysis and economic analysis. User inputs are stored in a data base and may be retained for future use. Model outputs include a recap of user inputs, calculations for gas production, digester heat requirements, system revenues, yearly cash flow, and a graph of the net present value of the investment. The model is generalized so that nonfarm applications may also be analyzed. The program will work equally well for various digester designs such as continuously stirred reactors, plug flow systems, and fluidized bed columns.

Modeling human behavior in economics and social science.

Science.gov (United States)

Dolfin, M; Leonida, L; Outada, N

2017-12-01

The complex interactions between human behaviors and social economic sciences is critically analyzed in this paper in view of possible applications of mathematical modeling as an attainable interdisciplinary approach to understand and simulate the aforementioned dynamics. The quest is developed along three steps: Firstly an overall analysis of social and economic sciences indicates the main requirements that a contribution of mathematical modeling should bring to these sciences; subsequently the focus moves to an overview of mathematical tools and to the selection of those which appear, according to the authors bias, appropriate to the modeling; finally, a survey of applications is presented looking ahead to research perspectives. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

HTGR Application Economic Model Users' Manual

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gandrik, A.M.

2012-01-01

The High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) Application Economic Model was developed at the Idaho National Laboratory for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project. The HTGR Application Economic Model calculates either the required selling price of power and/or heat for a given internal rate of return (IRR) or the IRR for power and/or heat being sold at the market price. The user can generate these economic results for a range of reactor outlet temperatures; with and without power cycles, including either a Brayton or Rankine cycle; for the demonstration plant, first of a kind, or nth of a kind project phases; for up to 16 reactor modules; and for module ratings of 200, 350, or 600 MWt. This users manual contains the mathematical models and operating instructions for the HTGR Application Economic Model. Instructions, screenshots, and examples are provided to guide the user through the HTGR Application Economic Model. This model was designed for users who are familiar with the HTGR design and Excel and engineering economics. Modification of the HTGR Application Economic Model should only be performed by users familiar with the HTGR and its applications, Excel, and Visual Basic.

Thermo-economic analysis of combined power plants with changing economic parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bidini, G.; Desideri, U.; Facchini, B.

1991-01-01

A method of thermo-economic analysis for the choice of optimal thermodynamic parameters of steam bottoming cycles in combined cycle power plants is presented. By keeping the thermodynamic aspects separated from the economic aspects, this method allows designers to easily perform a sensitivity analysis of the change in the economic parameters

User Guide for the International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keyser, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Flores-Espino, Francisco [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Uriarte, Caroline [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cox, Sadie [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2016-09-01

The International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) model is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, and geothermal energy projects for several different countries. Building on the original JEDI model, which was developed for the United States, I-JEDI was developed under the USAID Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to support countries in assessing economic impacts of LEDS actions in the energy sector. I-JEDI estimates economic impacts by characterizing the construction and operation of energy projects in terms of expenditures and the portion of these expenditures made within the country of analysis. These data are then used in a country-specific input-output (I-O) model to estimate employment, earnings, gross domestic product (GDP), and gross output impacts. Total economic impacts are presented as well as impacts by industry. This user guide presents general information about how to use I-JEDI and interpret results as well as detailed information about methodology and model limitations.

Quantitative Analysis of Intra Urban Growth Modeling using socio economic agents by combining cellular automata model with agent based model

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, V. K.; Jha, A. K.; Gupta, K.; Srivastav, S. K.

2017-12-01

Recent studies indicate that there is a significant improvement in the urban land use dynamics through modeling at finer spatial resolutions. Geo-computational models such as cellular automata and agent based model have given evident proof regarding the quantification of the urban growth pattern with urban boundary. In recent studies, socio- economic factors such as demography, education rate, household density, parcel price of the current year, distance to road, school, hospital, commercial centers and police station are considered to the major factors influencing the Land Use Land Cover (LULC) pattern of the city. These factors have unidirectional approach to land use pattern which makes it difficult to analyze the spatial aspects of model results both quantitatively and qualitatively. In this study, cellular automata model is combined with generic model known as Agent Based Model to evaluate the impact of socio economic factors on land use pattern. For this purpose, Dehradun an Indian city is selected as a case study. Socio economic factors were collected from field survey, Census of India, Directorate of economic census, Uttarakhand, India. A 3X3 simulating window is used to consider the impact on LULC. Cellular automata model results are examined for the identification of hot spot areas within the urban area and agent based model will be using logistic based regression approach where it will identify the correlation between each factor on LULC and classify the available area into low density, medium density, high density residential or commercial area. In the modeling phase, transition rule, neighborhood effect, cell change factors are used to improve the representation of built-up classes. Significant improvement is observed in the built-up classes from 84 % to 89 %. However after incorporating agent based model with cellular automata model the accuracy improved from 89 % to 94 % in 3 classes of urban i.e. low density, medium density and commercial classes

The modelling of off-site economic consequences of nuclear accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alonso, A.; Gallego, E.; Martin, J.E.

1991-01-01

The paper presents a computer model for the probabilistic assessment of the off-site economic risk derived from nuclear accidents. The model is called MECA (Model for Economic Consequence Assessment) and takes into consideration the direct costs caused, following an accident, by the different countermeasures adopted to prevent both the early and chronic exposure of the population to the radionuclides released, as well as the direct costs derived from health damage to the affected population. The model uses site-specific data that are organized in a socio-economic data base; detailed distributions of population, livestock census, agricultural production and farmland use, as well as of employment, salaries, and added value for different economic sectors are included. This data base has been completed for Spain, based on available official statistics. The new code, coupled to a general ACA code, provides capability to complete probabilistic risk assessments from the point of view of the off-site economic consequences, and also to perform cost-effectiveness analysis of the different countermeasures in the field of emergency preparedness

Demonstration uncertainty/sensitivity analysis using the health and economic consequence model CRAC2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alpert, D.J.; Iman, R.L.; Johnson, J.D.; Helton, J.C.

1984-12-01

The techniques for performing uncertainty/sensitivity analyses compiled as part of the MELCOR program appear to be well suited for use with a health and economic consequence model. Two replicate samples of size 50 gave essentially identical results, indicating that for this case, a Latin hypercube sample of size 50 seems adequate to represent the distribution of results. Though the intent of this study was a demonstration of uncertainty/sensitivity analysis techniques, a number of insights relevant to health and economic consequence modeling can be gleaned: uncertainties in early deaths are significantly greater than uncertainties in latent cancer deaths; though the magnitude of the source term is the largest source of variation in estimated distributions of early deaths, a number of additional parameters are also important; even with the release fractions for a full SST1, one quarter of the CRAC2 runs gave no early deaths; and comparison of the estimates of mean early deaths for a full SST1 release in this study with those of recent point estimates for similar conditions indicates that the recent estimates may be significant overestimations of early deaths. Estimates of latent cancer deaths, however, are roughly comparable. An analysis of the type described here can provide insights in a number of areas. First, the variability in the results gives an indication of the potential uncertainty associated with the calculations. Second, the sensitivity of the results to assumptions about the input variables can be determined. Research efforts can then be concentrated on reducing the uncertainty in the variables which are the largest contributors to uncertainty in results

Economic model of the US uranium market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Owen, A.D.

1984-01-01

An economic model of the US uranium market is developed using annual data for the period 1966-81. The model consists of five stochastic equations explaining uranium consumption, forward commitments, mine production, contract prices, and spot prices. A forecasting exercise is also undertaken. By way of essential background information, however, an analysis of current trends in the international uranium market is given, followed by a summary of historical price movements in the US uranium market. A brief discussion on the current state of the US market precedes the statistical analysis. 19 footnotes and references, 3 tables

INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

GERMÁN LOBOS

2015-12-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L. production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in

Pre-salt new regulatory mark and the economic order: constitutionality analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pinheiro, Marcela Brasil Pedrosa; Araujo, Mayara de Carvalho; Xavier, Yanko Marcius; Guimaraes, Patricia Borba Vilar

2010-01-01

The discovery of vast reserves of hydrocarbons in the pre-salt layer that extends from Espirito Santo to Santa Catarina, added with the economic and strategic value of oil and natural gas, has brought discussion about the reasonableness of the regulatory model adopted so far. Would be prudent to explore these resources through the concession model? From detailed analysis of the doctrinal and bills that aim to inaugurate the new regulatory bills, we sought to answer this question, based majorly on the principles of economic activity applied in our constitutional system. Motivated by the analysis of these constitutional principles proposed, the State is seen as a regulating agent of the economic activities, fulfilling its role to supervise, encourage and plan the direction of national economic system. The sharing model gives greater state involvement and is able to convert the wealth of pre-salt in citizenship, but only if well implemented. Thus, based on constitutional principles and the notion of development as freedom, the conclusion of this paperwork is for the constitutionality of the new regulatory bills. (author)

Modeling and simulation of economic processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bogdan Brumar

2010-12-01

Full Text Available In general, any activity requires a longer action often characterized by a degree of uncertainty, insecurity, in terms of size of the objective pursued. Because of the complexity of real economic systems, the stochastic dependencies between different variables and parameters considered, not all systems can be adequately represented by a model that can be solved by analytical methods and covering all issues for management decision analysis-economic horizon real. Often in such cases, it is considered that the simulation technique is the only alternative available. Using simulation techniques to study real-world systems often requires a laborious work. Making a simulation experiment is a process that takes place in several stages.

Partial differential equation models in the socio-economic sciences

KAUST Repository

Burger, Martin; Caffarelli, Luis; Markowich, Peter A.

2014-01-01

Mathematical models based on partial differential equations (PDEs) have become an integral part of quantitative analysis in most branches of science and engineering, recently expanding also towards biomedicine and socio-economic sciences

Economic models for battery energy storage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reckrodt, R.C.; Anderson, M.D.; Kluczny, R.M.

1990-01-01

While the technology required to produce viable Battery Energy Storage System exists, the economic feasibility (cost vs. benefits) of building these systems requires justification. First, a generalized decision diagram was developed to ensure that all of the economic factors were considered and properly related for the customer-side-of-the meter. Next, two economic models that had consistently given differing results were compared. One was the McKinney model developed at UM-Rolla in 1987; the second was the SYSPLAN model developed by Battelle. Differences were resolved on a point by point basis with reference to the current economic environment. The economic model was upgraded to include the best of both models based on the resolution of these differences. The upgrades were implemented as modifications to the original SYSPLAN (1986 version) to preserve user friendliness. In this paper four specific cases are evaluated and compared. The results are as predicted, since comparison was made with two known models

Ecosystem-management-based Management Models of Fast-growing and High-yield Plantation and Its Eco-economic Benefits Analysis

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2010-01-01

The paper expounded the basic concept and principles of ecosystem management,and analyzed the state and trend of industrial plantation ecosystem management in other countries.Based on the analysis of typical case studies,the eco-economic benefits were evaluated for the management models of fast-growing and high-yield plantations.

Modeling the economic costs of disasters and recovery: analysis using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, W.; Li, N.; Wu, J.-D.; Hao, X.-L.

2014-04-01

Disaster damages have negative effects on the economy, whereas reconstruction investment has positive effects. The aim of this study is to model economic causes of disasters and recovery involving the positive effects of reconstruction activities. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is a promising approach because it can incorporate these two kinds of shocks into a unified framework and furthermore avoid the double-counting problem. In order to factor both shocks into the CGE model, direct loss is set as the amount of capital stock reduced on the supply side of the economy; a portion of investments restores the capital stock in an existing period; an investment-driven dynamic model is formulated according to available reconstruction data, and the rest of a given country's saving is set as an endogenous variable to balance the fixed investment. The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake is selected as a case study to illustrate the model, and three scenarios are constructed: S0 (no disaster occurs), S1 (disaster occurs with reconstruction investment) and S2 (disaster occurs without reconstruction investment). S0 is taken as business as usual, and the differences between S1 and S0 and that between S2 and S0 can be interpreted as economic losses including reconstruction and excluding reconstruction, respectively. The study showed that output from S1 is found to be closer to real data than that from S2. Economic loss under S2 is roughly 1.5 times that under S1. The gap in the economic aggregate between S1 and S0 is reduced to 3% at the end of government-led reconstruction activity, a level that should take another four years to achieve under S2.

Sustainability and economics: The Adirondack Park experience, a forest economic-ecological model, and solar energy policy

Science.gov (United States)

Erickson, Jon David

The long-term sustainability of human communities will depend on our relationship with regional environments, our maintenance of renewable resources, and our successful disengagement from nonrenewable energy dependence. This dissertation investigates sustainability at these three levels, following a critical analysis of sustainability and economics. At the regional environment level, the Adirondack Park of New York State is analyzed as a potential model of sustainable development. A set of initial and ongoing conditions are presented that both emerge from and support a model of sustainability in the Adirondacks. From these conditions, a clearer picture emerges of the definition of regional sustainability, consequences of its adoption, and lessons from its application. Next, an economic-ecological model of the northern hardwood forest ecosystem is developed. The model integrates economic theory and intertemporal ecological concepts, linking current harvest decisions with future forest growth, financial value, and ecosystem stability. The results indicate very different economic and ecological outcomes by varying opportunity cost and ecosystem recovery assumptions, and suggest a positive benefit to ecological recovery in the forest rotation decision of the profit maximizing manager. The last section investigates the motives, economics, and international development implications of renewable energy (specifically photovoltaic technology) in rural electrification and technology transfer, drawing on research in the Dominican Republic. The implications of subsidizing a photovoltaic market versus investing in basic research are explored.

Physical-Socio-Economic Modeling of Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Chamberlain, R. G.; Vatan, F.

2008-12-01

/information operations model. Each of these models focuses on part of the overall picture while; each contributes information about its area of expertise to a common pool and draws from that pool and the feedbacks from the other models as needed. Existing high-quality physical models are based on analysis of the dynamic interactions of atmospheric, land, and ocean processes. The demographic model tracks the civilian demographics needed by the other models. The populations of neighborhood group age-gender cohorts are affected by births, deaths, aging, and migration. This model provides labor supply and product demand curves to the economic model. The political model focuses on political actors and describes how they use their clout to seek their goals. Clout is derived from civilian support, the formal and informal alliances that actors make with each other, military strength, wealth, and control of information. It considers how they are constrained by their cultural heritage. It deals with shifting alliances. The economic model determines local and international prices and production quantities for a small number of products, including imports and exports and black markets; wages, jobs, and unemployment for a small number of labor categories; capital, growth, and inflation; resource usage and pollution. The media/information operations model addresses the effects of the control and content of inter- group and intra-group communications-and the side effects of these on other groups. This model will consist of rules (probably a large number of them) detailing the effects of media/information operations of various kinds on civilian parameters used in the other models, such as political goals, concern saliencies, and shapes of supply and demand curves.

Techno-Economic, Sustainability, and Market Analysis | Bioenergy | NREL

Science.gov (United States)

Techno-Economic, Sustainability, and Market Analysis Techno-Economic, Sustainability, and Market Analysis NREL conducts techno-economic analyses (TEAs) for algal biofuels, thermochemical conversion, and agitating the liquid as it flows around. Algal Biofuels Techno-Economic Analysis NREL's Algae Techno

Teaching Economics: A Cooperative Learning Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Caropreso, Edward J.; Haggerty, Mark

2000-01-01

Describes an alternative approach to introductory economics based on a cooperative learning model, "Learning Together." Discussion of issues in economics education and cooperative learning in higher education leads to explanation of how to adapt the Learning Together Model to lesson planning in economics. A flow chart illustrates the process for a…

Economic differences among regional public service broadcasters in Spain according to their management model. An empirical analysis for period 2010-2013

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Víctor Orive Serrano

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Purpose: This piece of research quantifies and analyses empirically the given economic differences among public service television in Spain according to the adopted management model (classic or outsourced. Design/methodology/approach: In so doing, an average contrast of different economic variables studied in the literature is conducted (audience share, total assets, public subsidies, cost of personnel, suppliers spending and profit after taxes. In addition, these variables are related so as to calculate productivity obtained by each two groups of television operators. This analysis is conducted for period 2010-2013, featured by a crisis context in the Spanish economy. Findings: Management model adopted by each regional broadcaster impacts on different economic variables as obtained share, total assets, public subsidies, cost of personnel, suppliers spending or profit after taxes. Moreover, those public corporations adopting an outsourced management model present better productivity values. Research limitations/implications: Only one country has been analyzed for a 4 years period. Practical implications: Regional public service broadcasters with an outsourced model present less economic losses and require less public subsidies by their corresponding regional governments. Social implications: Outsourcing part of the value chain can be useful so as to guarantee sustainability of regional public service television. Originality/value: It has been proven empirically that the management model of a regional public service television impacts its economic results.

Syntactical Analysis of Economics Textbooks.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilcox, George K.

An analysis of the syntax of economics textbooks was undertaken to (1) provide real-language examples of the difficult grammatical structures being taught in an advanced economics reading course, and (2) construct a factual database of the nature of economics textbooks. Five texts representative of those typically used in introductory economics…

Direct regional energy/economic modeling (DREEM) design

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hall, P.D.; Pleatsikas, C.J.

1979-10-01

This report summarizes an investigation into the use of regional and multiregional economic models for estimating the indirect and induced impacts of Federally-mandated energy policies. It includes an examination of alternative types of energy policies that can impact regional economies and the available analytical frameworks for measuring the magnitudes and spatial extents of these impacts. One such analytical system, the National Regional Impact Evaluation System (NRIES), currently operational in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), is chosen for more detailed investigation. The report summarizes the models capabilities for addressing various energy policy issues and then demonstrates the applicability of the model in specified contexts by developing appropriate input data for three scenarios. These scenarios concern the multi-state impacts of alternative coal-mining-development decisions, multi-regional impacts of macroeconomic change, and the comprehensive effects of an alternative national energy supply trajectory. On the basis of this experience, the capabilities of NRIES for analyzing energy-policy issues are summarized in a concluding chapter.

HTGR Application Economic Model Users' Manual

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A.M. Gandrik

2012-01-01

The High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) Application Economic Model was developed at the Idaho National Laboratory for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project. The HTGR Application Economic Model calculates either the required selling price of power and/or heat for a given internal rate of return (IRR) or the IRR for power and/or heat being sold at the market price. The user can generate these economic results for a range of reactor outlet temperatures; with and without power cycles, including either a Brayton or Rankine cycle; for the demonstration plant, first of a kind, or nth of a kind project phases; for up to 16 reactor modules; and for module ratings of 200, 350, or 600 MWt. This users manual contains the mathematical models and operating instructions for the HTGR Application Economic Model. Instructions, screenshots, and examples are provided to guide the user through the HTGR Application Economic Model. This model was designed for users who are familiar with the HTGR design and Excel and engineering economics. Modification of the HTGR Application Economic Model should only be performed by users familiar with the HTGR and its applications, Excel, and Visual Basic.

Economic modeling of fault tolerant flight control systems in commercial applications

Science.gov (United States)

Finelli, G. B.

1982-01-01

This paper describes the current development of a comprehensive model which will supply the assessment and analysis capability to investigate the economic viability of Fault Tolerant Flight Control Systems (FTFCS) for commercial aircraft of the 1990's and beyond. An introduction to the unique attributes of fault tolerance and how they will influence aircraft operations and consequent airline costs and benefits is presented. Specific modeling issues and elements necessary for accurate assessment of all costs affected by ownership and operation of FTFCS are delineated. Trade-off factors are presented, aimed at exposing economically optimal realizations of system implementations, resource allocation, and operating policies. A trade-off example is furnished to graphically display some of the analysis capabilities of the comprehensive simulation model now being developed.

A critique of non-parametric efficiency analysis in energy economics studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Chien-Ming

2013-01-01

The paper reexamines non-additive environmental efficiency models with weakly-disposable undesirable outputs appeared in the literature of energy economics. These efficiency models are used in numerous studies published in this journal and other energy-related outlets. Recent studies, however, have found key limitations of the weak-disposability assumption in its application to environmental efficiency analysis. It is found that efficiency scores obtained from non-additive efficiency models can be non-monotonic in pollution quantities under the weak-disposability assumption — which is against common intuition and the principle of environmental economics. In this paper, I present taxonomy of efficiency models found in the energy economics literature and illustrate the above limitations and discuss implications of monotonicity from a practical viewpoint. Finally, I review the formulations for a variable returns-to-scale technology with weakly-disposable undesirable outputs, which has been misused in a number of papers in the energy economics literature. An application to evaluating the energy efficiencies of 23 European Union states is presented to illustrate the problem. - Highlights: • Review different environmental efficiency model used in energy economics studies • Highlight limitations of these environmental efficiency models • These limitations have not been recognized in the existing energy economics literature. • Data from 23 European Union states are used to illustrate the methodological consequences

The Need of a New Economic Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexandru Cătălin POPA

2012-02-01

Full Text Available The current global economic crisis has proven to be unpredictable for most decision-makers worldwide. Moreover, beliefs deeply embedded in the minds of economists about economics, about the virtues of capitalism and free market began to falter. Sooner or later the current crisis will end. The problem that arises and to which the economic science must answer is whether anything should be changed in the current world economic order and especially what exactly. It is quite vital to ask ourselves today in what kind of society we want to live and whether the current economic model, a model mainly based on monetarist ideas, is helping us to achieve those wishes. In addition to analyzing the root causes that led to the current economic crisis, this article aims to analyze whether the current economic model must change and to outline the features of a possible new model.

Spatial–Temporal Modeling for Regional Economic Development: A Quantitative Analysis with Panel Data from Western China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jingxiao Zhang

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The objective of this research is to analyze regional economic difference and explore the influencing factors, which would eventually provide an effective foundation to narrow the regional economic differences. In this paper, a new regional economic difference model is established considering the interactions between the spatial weight and human capital and foreign direct investment (FDI. With the panel data from twelve western provinces in China, the empirical research is conducted by adopting feasible generalized least squares (FGLS fixed effects model. The preliminary results show that: (1 the spatial spillover effect of human capital and FDI is significant to the formation of regional economic difference; and (2 the total capital formation, government expenditure, FDI, human capital and patent application authorization are positively correlated with GDP growth per capita, while the number of medical institutions is negatively correlated with GDP growth per capita. In addition, the robust test is carried out for validation by using the filter variable method, spatial lag model and spatial error model. The robustness test results show that the results of the FGLS fixed effects model are validated by the filter variable method. The other two robust test results show that: (1 the total capital formation and the fixed asset investment is of 99.9% significance, which represents that they play a key role in the formation of economic development difference; and (2 the coefficients’ symbols of the other variables are consistent with the FGLS fixed effect model but a little different on the significances, which enhance the effectiveness of the proposed regional economic difference model.

Analysis Of Economic Motivation When Individuals Choose An Educational Path

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Viktor Anatolyevich Koksharov

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The authors consider the economic motivations when individuals choose an educational path. This line of research is relevant from both, the point of view of science — research of economic behavior of an individual, and the point of view of practice — allows to increase efficiency of investments in a human capital. The authors have developed the economic and mathematical model of choice of optimum educational paths by individuals. The model is realized in the software and approved on real data on more than 5,5 thousand students. For the analysis of the importance of rational economic expectations when an educational path has to be chosen, the paths chosen by students is compared and the educational paths optimum from the point of view of economic rationality are calculated. The analysis of the results has showed that mainly, the choice of educational paths happens according to the economic motivations. On the considered selection, 66 % of prospective students have chosen an optimum path from the point of view of economic preferences. The most significant factor providing development of optimum educational paths is an expectation of higher income upon completion of education — 22 % of all educational paths, and a possibility of cost-cutting of educating or state-subsidized education — 12 %. In our opinion, one of the most important practical results of the research of optimum educational path is the need to consider expectations of students and prospective student when developing a state policy of investment in human capital.

ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC MODELS OF POTATO PRODUCTION IN MONTENEGRO

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Miomir JOVANOVIC

2014-04-01

Full Text Available The northern region of Montenegro represents a very important resource for agricultural production. However, the depopulation of the analysed area, pronounced in-kind character of production without significant participation of market producers, lack of market research, stronger vertical and horizontal connection between primary production and processing sectors have significant impacts causing the low level of competitiveness of agricultural production. Potato production in the analysed area has recorded positive trends in last ten years. This paper presents economic models of agriculture households on the analysed area from the potatoes production point of view.

The contention within health economics: a micro-economic foundation using a macro-economic analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Yaxley, I L

1998-03-01

Health economists claim to use market economics combined with the micro-economic concepts of opportunity cost and the margin to advise on priority setting. However, they are advising on setting priorities through a macro-economic analysis using the costs of the supplier, thus prioritising the producer and not the consumer as the dynamic of economic activity. For health economists any contention within priority setting is due to lack of data not their confusion over fundamental concepts.

An Economic Aspect of the AVOID Programme: Analysis Using the AIM/CGE Model

Science.gov (United States)

Matsumoto, Ken'ichi; Masui, Toshihiko

2010-05-01

This presentation purposes to show the results of the analysis that the AIM/CGE [Global] model contributed to Work Stream 1 of the AVOID programme. Three economic models participate in this WS to analyze the economic aspects of defined climate policies, and the AIM/CGE [Global] model is one of them. The reference scenario is SRES A1B and five policy scenarios (2016.R2.H, 2016.R4.L, 2016.R5.L, 2030.R2.H, and 2030.R5.L) are considered. The climate policies are expressed as emissions pathways of several gases such as greenhouse gases and aerosols. The AIM/CGE [Global] model is a recursive dynamic global CGE model with 21 industrial sectors and 24 world regions. These definitions are based on the GTAP6 database and it is used as the economic data of the base year. Some important characteristics of this model can be summarized as follows: power generation by various sources (from non-renewables to renewables) are considered; CCS technology is modeled; biomass energy (both traditional and purpose-grown) production and consumption are included; not only CO2 emissions but also other gases are considered; international markets are modeled for international trade of some fossil fuels; relationships between the costs and resource reserves of fossil fuels are modeled. The model is run with 10-year time steps until 2100. For the reference case, there are no constraints and the model is run based on the drivers (assumptions on GDP and population for A1B) and AEEI. The reference case does not have the same emissions pathways as the prescribed emissions for A1B in AVOID. For scenario cases, the model is run under emissions constraints. In particular, for each policy scenario, the constraint on each gas in each 10-year step is derived. The percentage reduction in emissions that occurs between the AVOID A1B scenario and the particular policy scenario, for each gas in each 10-year period is first calculated, and then these percentage reductions are applied to the AIM reference case

Economic communication model set

Science.gov (United States)

Zvereva, Olga M.; Berg, Dmitry B.

2017-06-01

This paper details findings from the research work targeted at economic communications investigation with agent-based models usage. The agent-based model set was engineered to simulate economic communications. Money in the form of internal and external currencies was introduced into the models to support exchanges in communications. Every model, being based on the general concept, has its own peculiarities in algorithm and input data set since it was engineered to solve the specific problem. Several and different origin data sets were used in experiments: theoretic sets were estimated on the basis of static Leontief's equilibrium equation and the real set was constructed on the basis of statistical data. While simulation experiments, communication process was observed in dynamics, and system macroparameters were estimated. This research approved that combination of an agent-based and mathematical model can cause a synergetic effect.

Economic Efficiencyo on Limited Liability Companies: some Considerations on Economic Analysis of Law

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Martinho Martins Botelho

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This paper presents briefly a theoretical approach about limited efficiency from the perspective Economic Analysis of Law (EAL of the limited liability company by examining initially the question of limited liability, under the scrutiny of the pro-rata theory and model manager-investor.  It approaches the liability of directors of corporations incorporated in the form of a limited company. Subsequently, its theoretical approaches are about the analysis of the first generation of agency theory (contract manager-investor incentives, the hypothesis of Modigliani-Miller irrelevance, and structures of great property.

Economic profitability analysis of demand side management program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sheen, J.N.

2005-01-01

This study considers both the internal and external costs of the utility in deriving the avoided capacity cost (ACC) and avoided operating cost (AOC) induced in an electric utility caused by the implementation of a demand side management program (DSM). In calculating the ACC, a multiple objective linear programming model is developed. Meanwhile, the AOC is calculated by considering the differences between the total and specific time period energy consumption ratios before and after the implementation of the DSM program. This study also develops an economic analysis method using Net Present Value and Pay Back Year models to assess the economic profitability of implementing a DSM program from a participant's point of view. The design and construction of a partial load leveling eutectic salt Cooling Energy Storage (CES) air conditioning system in a target office building in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, is discussed in order to simulate the cost benefit of the CES system from the perspective of the utility and from that of the participant. The results confirm the effectiveness of the developed models in simulating the economic benefits of implementing a DSM program from the perspectives of both the utility and the participant

NEW PARADIGM OF ANALYSIS OF STATISTICAL AND EXPERT DATA IN PROBLEMS OF ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT

OpenAIRE

Orlov A. I.

2014-01-01

The article is devoted to the methods of analysis of statistical and expert data in problems of economics and management that are discussed in the framework of scientific specialization "Mathematical methods of economy", including organizational-economic and economic-mathematical modeling, econometrics and statistics, as well as economic aspects of decision theory, systems analysis, cybernetics, operations research. The main provisions of the new paradigm of this scientific and practical fiel...

THE INSTANTANEOUS SPEED OF ADJUSTMENT ASSUMPTION AND STABILITY OF ECONOMIC-MODELS

NARCIS (Netherlands)

SCHOONBEEK, L

In order to simplify stability analysis of an economic model one can assume that one of the model variables moves infinitely fast towards equilibrium, given the values of the other slower variables. We present conditions such that stability of the simplified model implies, or is implied by,

Introducing labour productivity changes into models used for economic impact analysis in tourism

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Klijs, Jeroen; Peerlings, Jack; Heijman, Wim

2017-01-01

In tourism management, traditional input-output models are often applied to calculate economic impacts, including employment impacts. These models imply that increases in output are translated into proportional increases in labour, indicating constant labour productivity. In non-linear input-

Integrated agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis of BMPs to support decision making and policy design

Science.gov (United States)

Maroy, E.; Rousseau, A. N.; Hallema, D. W.

2012-12-01

With recent efforts and increasing control over point source pollution of freshwater, agricultural non-point pollution sources have become responsible for most of sediment and nutrient loads in North American water systems. Environmental and agricultural agencies have recognised the need for reducing eutrophication and have developed various policies to compel or encourage producers to best management practices (BMPs). Addressing diffuse pollution is challenging considering the complex and cumulative nature of transport processes, high variability in space and time, and prohibitive costs of distributed water quality monitoring. Many policy options exist to push producers to adopt environmentally desirable behaviour while keeping their activity viable, and ensure equitable costs to consumers and tax payers. On the one hand, economic instruments (subsidies, taxes, water quality markets) are designed to maximize cost-effectiveness, so that farmers optimize their production for maximum profit while implementing BMPs. On the other hand, emission standards or regulation of inputs are often easier and less costly to implement. To study economic and environmental impacts of such policies, a distributed modelling approach is needed to deal with the complexity of the system and the large environmental and socio-economic data requirements. Our objective is to integrate agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis to support decision and policy making processes of BMP implementation. The integrated modelling system GIBSI was developed in an earlier study within the Canadian WEBs project (Watershed Evaluation of BMPs) to evaluate the influence of BMPs on water quality. The case study involved 30 and 15 year records of discharge and water quality measurements respectively, in the Beaurivage River watershed (Quebec, Canada). GIBSI provided a risk-based overview of the impact of BMPs (including vegetated riparian buffer strips, precision slurry application, conversion to

Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Niels Framroze

2008-01-01

Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity in the econo......Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity...... are related to expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc. Finally, the general-partial equilibrium distinction is analyzed....

Spatial Economics Model Predicting Transport Volume

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lu Bo

2016-10-01

Full Text Available It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Zhuanghe as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Zhuanghe and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.

Model confirmation in climate economics

Science.gov (United States)

Millner, Antony; McDermott, Thomas K. J.

2016-01-01

Benefit–cost integrated assessment models (BC-IAMs) inform climate policy debates by quantifying the trade-offs between alternative greenhouse gas abatement options. They achieve this by coupling simplified models of the climate system to models of the global economy and the costs and benefits of climate policy. Although these models have provided valuable qualitative insights into the sensitivity of policy trade-offs to different ethical and empirical assumptions, they are increasingly being used to inform the selection of policies in the real world. To the extent that BC-IAMs are used as inputs to policy selection, our confidence in their quantitative outputs must depend on the empirical validity of their modeling assumptions. We have a degree of confidence in climate models both because they have been tested on historical data in hindcasting experiments and because the physical principles they are based on have been empirically confirmed in closely related applications. By contrast, the economic components of BC-IAMs often rely on untestable scenarios, or on structural models that are comparatively untested on relevant time scales. Where possible, an approach to model confirmation similar to that used in climate science could help to build confidence in the economic components of BC-IAMs, or focus attention on which components might need refinement for policy applications. We illustrate the potential benefits of model confirmation exercises by performing a long-run hindcasting experiment with one of the leading BC-IAMs. We show that its model of long-run economic growth—one of its most important economic components—had questionable predictive power over the 20th century. PMID:27432964

Economic impacts of climate change in Australia: framework and analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ford, Melanie

2007-01-01

Full text: There is growing interest in understanding the potential impacts of climate change in Australia, and especially the economic impacts of 'inaction'. In this study, a preliminary analysis of the possible economic impacts of future climate change in Australia is undertaken using ABARE's general equilibrium model of the global economy, GTEM. In order to understand the potential economy-wide economic impacts, the broad climatic trends that Australia is likely to experience over the next several decades are canvassed and the potential economic and non-economic impacts on key risk areas, such as water resources, agriculture and forests, health, industry and human settlements and the ecosystems, are identified. A more detailed analysis of the economic impacts of climate change are undertaken by developing two case studies. In the first case study, the economic impact of climate change and reduced water availability on the agricultural sector is assessed in the Murray-Darling Basin. In the second case study, the sectoral economic impacts on the Australian resources sector of a projected decline in global economic activity due to climate change is analysed. The key areas of required development to more fully understand the economy-wide and sectoral impacts of climate change are also discussed including issues associated with estimating both non-market and market impacts. Finally, an analytical framework for undertaking integrated assessment of climate change impacts domestically and globally is developed

Agent-based modeling in ecological economics.

Science.gov (United States)

Heckbert, Scott; Baynes, Tim; Reeson, Andrew

2010-01-01

Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and models can be used to explore feedbacks and adaptations inherent in these systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) represents autonomous entities, each with dynamic behavior and heterogeneous characteristics. Agents interact with each other and their environment, resulting in emergent outcomes at the macroscale that can be used to quantitatively analyze complex systems. ABM is contributing to research questions in ecological economics in the areas of natural resource management and land-use change, urban systems modeling, market dynamics, changes in consumer attitudes, innovation, and diffusion of technology and management practices, commons dilemmas and self-governance, and psychological aspects to human decision making and behavior change. Frontiers for ABM research in ecological economics involve advancing the empirical calibration and validation of models through mixed methods, including surveys, interviews, participatory modeling, and, notably, experimental economics to test specific decision-making hypotheses. Linking ABM with other modeling techniques at the level of emergent properties will further advance efforts to understand dynamics of social-environmental systems.

System dynamics modelling and simulating the effects of intellectual capital on economic growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivona Milić Beran

2015-10-01

Full Text Available System dynamics modelling is one of the best scientific methods for modelling complex, nonlinear natural, economic and technical system dynamics as it enables both monitoring and assessment of the effects of intellectual capital on economic growth. Intellectual capital is defined as “the ability to transform knowledge and intangible assets into resources to create wealth for a company and a country.” Transformation of knowledge is crucial. Knowledge increases a country’s wealth only if its importance is recognized and applied differently from existing work practices. The aim of this paper is to show the efficiency of modelling system dynamics and simulating the effects of intellectual capital on economic growth. A computer simulation provided a mathematical model, providing practical insight into the dynamic behavior of the observed system, i.e. the analysis of economic growth and observation of mutual correlation between individual parameters. The results of the simulation are presented in graphical form. The dynamic model of the effects of intellectual capital on Croatia’s economic growth has been verified by comparing simulation results with existing data on economic growth.

Modeling economic costs of disasters and recovery involving positive effects of reconstruction: analysis using a dynamic CGE model

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, W.; Li, N.; Wu, J.-D.; Hao, X.-L.

2013-11-01

Disaster damages have negative effects on economy, whereas reconstruction investments have positive effects. The aim of this study is to model economic causes of disasters and recovery involving positive effects of reconstruction activities. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is a promising approach because it can incorporate these two kinds of shocks into a unified framework and further avoid double-counting problem. In order to factor both shocks in CGE model, direct loss is set as the amount of capital stock reduced on supply side of economy; A portion of investments restore the capital stock in existing period; An investment-driven dynamic model is formulated due to available reconstruction data, and the rest of a given country's saving is set as an endogenous variable. The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake is selected as a case study to illustrate the model, and three scenarios are constructed: S0 (no disaster occurs), S1 (disaster occurs with reconstruction investment) and S2 (disaster occurs without reconstruction investment). S0 is taken as business as usual, and the differences between S1 and S0 and that between S2 and S0 can be interpreted as economic losses including reconstruction and excluding reconstruction respectively. The study showed that output from S1 is found to be closer to real data than that from S2. S2 overestimates economic loss by roughly two times that under S1. The gap in economic aggregate between S1 and S0 is reduced to 3% in 2011, a level that should take another four years to achieve under S2.

Preliminary economic analysis of poultry litter gasification option with a simple transportation model.

Science.gov (United States)

Sheth, Atul C; English, Jennifer

2005-04-01

Several environmental issues are related to the disposal of poultry litter. In an effort to provide a more environmentally friendly alternative than landfill disposal or spreading as a soil amendment, work has been carried out previously at the University of Tennessee Space Institute (UTSI). This past UTSI work was concentrated on developing a catalytic steam gasification concept to produce energy from poultry litter. In the past UTSI studies, preliminary design and economics for a stationary, centralized gasification plant capable of processing approximately 100 ton/day of poultry litter were developed. However, in this preliminary design the economic impact of transporting litter to a centralized gasification plant location was not addressed. To determine the preliminary impact of transporting the poultry litter on the overall economics of this energy conversion plant design, a simple transportation model was developed. This model was used in conjunction with the earlier plant design prepared at UTSI to determine the economic feasibility of a centralized, stationary poultry litter gasification plant. To do so, major variables such as traveling distance, plant feed rate (or capacity), fluctuations in the sales price of the product gas (that means value of the energy), population density of poultry farms, impact of tipping fees, and cost of litter were varied. The study showed that for plant with a capacity of 1000 ton/day to be able to withstand several changes in economic conditions and sustain itself, the poultry farm density would need to be approximately 0.3 houses/mi2. Smaller plants would need either a higher energy price or some kind of subsidy to be economically feasible.

Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Niels Framroze

2008-01-01

Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity in the econo......Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity...... parameters of the CVAR are shown to be interpretable in terms of expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc. The general-partial equilibrium distinction is also discussed....

Economic Analysis of Several Nuclear Fuel Cycles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ko, Won Il; Gao, Fanxing; Kim, Sung Ki

2012-01-01

Economics is one of the essential criteria to be considered for the future deployment of the nuclear power. With regard to the competitive power market, the cost of electricity from nuclear power plants is somewhat highly competitive with those from the other electricity generations, averaging lower in cost than fossil fuels, wind, or solar. However, a closer look at the nuclear power production brings an insight that the cost varies within a wide range, highly depending on a nuclear fuel cycle option. The option of nuclear fuel cycle is a key determinant in the economics, and therefrom, a comprehensive comparison among the proposed fuel cycle options necessitates an economic analysis for thirteen promising options based on the material flow analysis obtained by an equilibrium model as specified in the first article (Modeling and System Analysis of Different Fuel Cycle Options for Nuclear Power Sustainability (I): Uranium Consumption and Waste Generation). The objective of the article is to provide a systematic cost comparison among these nuclear fuel cycles. The generation cost (GC) generally consists of a capital cost, an operation and maintenance cost (O and M cost), a fuel cycle cost (FCC), and a decontaminating and decommissioning (D and D) cost. FCC includes a frontend cost and a back-end cost, as well as costs associated with fuel recycling in the cases of semi-closed and closed cycle options. As a part of GC, the economic analysis on FCC mainly focuses on the cost differences among fuel cycle options considered and therefore efficiently avoids the large uncertainties of the Generation-IV reactor capital costs and the advanced reprocessing costs. However, the GC provides a more comprehensive result covering all the associated costs, and therefrom, both GC and FCC have been analyzed, respectively. As a widely applied tool, the levelized cost (mills/KWh) proves to be a fundamental calculation principle in the energy and power industry, which is particularly

Techno-Economic Analysis of Biochemical Scenarios for Production of Cellulosic Ethanol

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kazi, F. K.; Fortman, J.; Anex, R.; Kothandaraman, G.; Hsu, D.; Aden, A.; Dutta, A.

2010-06-01

A techno-economic analysis on the production of cellulosic ethanol by fermentation was conducted to understand the viability of liquid biofuel production processes within the next 5-8 years. Initially, 35 technologies were reviewed, then a two-step down selection was performed to choose scenarios to be evaluated in a more detailed economic analysis. The lignocellulosic ethanol process was selected because it is well studied and portions of the process have been tested at pilot scales. Seven process variations were selected and examined in detail. Process designs were constrained to public data published in 2007 or earlier, without projecting for future process improvements. Economic analysis was performed for an 'nth plant' (mature technology) to obtain total investment and product value (PV). Sensitivity analysis was performed on PV to assess the impact of variations in process and economic parameters. Results show that the modeled dilute acid pretreatment process without any downstream process variation had the lowest PV of $3.40/gal of ethanol ($5.15/gallon of gasoline equivalent) in 2007 dollars. Sensitivity analysis shows that PV is most sensitive to feedstock and enzyme costs.

Electricity consumption and economic growth in the GCC countries: Panel data analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Osman, Mohamed; Gachino, Geoffrey; Hoque, Ariful

2016-01-01

Applying recent advances in panel data analysis, we investigate the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the GCC countries using annual data from 1975 to 2012. Within a framework which takes into consideration dynamics, heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence in the panel, we show that the results obtained from using the PMGE, demeaned PMG, AMG, MGE and DFE models indicate a long-run equilibrium relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. In order to determine the appropriate model and decide the preferred estimator, the Hausman test was performed. The PMGE model emerged as the most efficient of the three estimators. Also, the results obtained revealed a bi-directional causality between economic growth and electricity consumption in these countries, which supports the feedback hypothesis. As a result, this implies that if these countries adopt or implement any energy or electricity conservation policies, this may have a negative impact on its economic growth. - Highlights: • The relationship between electricity consumption and GDP is explored. • Panel data econometric analysis is used to obtain the results. • Bidirectional causality between these variables is observed. • The results support the feedback hypothesis in the GCC countries.

Applied welfare economics with discrete choice models: implications of theory for empirical specification

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Batley, Richard; Ibáñez Rivas, Juan Nicolás

2013-01-01

in economics. Whilst some researchers were quick to see its practical potential (e.g. McFadden, 1968, 1975), it was not until the late 1970s and early 1980s that RUM was equipped with a reasonably comprehensive theoretical rationale in terms of the economics of consumption. An important tenet of this rationale......The apparatus of the Random Utility Model (RUM) first emerged in the early 1960s, with Marschak (1960) and Block and Marschak (1960) translating models originally developed for discriminant analysis in psychophysics (Thurstone, 1927) to the alternative domain of discrete choice analysis...

Background effects of emergencies on indicators of economic analysis of enterprise economic activity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K.Yu. Polyak

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The paper deals with the study of scientific works on the issue of formation and development of organizational and methodological regulations of accounting and analytical support of the economic activity of an enterprise in emergencies, which led to the conclusion about the complex character of the study of theory, methodology and economic analysis of enterprises in various sectors of national economy. The author studies the approaches to the nature and methods of economic analysis that resulted in the presentation of instructional techniques to the economic structure. In assessing the consequences of emergencies, it is necessary to determine their impact on the indices of economic analysis; so, there was the need to define areas resulting index changes as a result of emergency situations by identifying its components which may affect emergencies. After analyzing the data, it was found that the consequences of emergency situations affecting the indices of business analysis and can lead to changes in management decisions of internal and external users.

Conceptual model of management steadfast economic development production-economic systems

OpenAIRE

Prokhorova, V.

2010-01-01

The article is devoted developments of conceptual model of management proof economic development of the industrialeconomy systems. Features are certain, the algorithm of impulse is offered and intercommunication of contours of management proof economic development of the industrialeconomy systems is investigational

Economic analysis of recycling contaminated concrete

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stephen, A.; Ayers, K.W.; Boren, J.K.; Parker, F.L. [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN (United States)

1997-02-01

Decontamination and Decommissioning activities in the DOE complex generate large volumes of radioactively contaminated and uncontaminated concrete. Currently, this concrete is usually decontaminated, the contaminated waste is disposed of in a LLW facility and the decontaminated concrete is placed in C&D landfills. A number of alternatives to this practice are available including recycling of the concrete. Cost estimates for six alternatives were developed using a spreadsheet model. The results of this analysis show that recycling alternatives are at least as economical as current practice.

Economic model of pipeline transportation systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Banks, W. F.

1977-07-29

The objective of the work reported here was to develop a model which could be used to assess the economic effects of energy-conservative technological innovations upon the pipeline industry. The model is a dynamic simulator which accepts inputs of two classes: the physical description (design parameters, fluid properties, and financial structures) of the system to be studied, and the postulated market (throughput and price) projection. The model consists of time-independent submodels: the fluidics model which simulates the physical behavior of the system, and the financial model which operates upon the output of the fluidics model to calculate the economics outputs. Any of a number of existing fluidics models can be used in addition to that developed as a part of this study. The financial model, known as the Systems, Science and Software (S/sup 3/) Financial Projection Model, contains user options whereby pipeline-peculiar characteristics can be removed and/or modified, so that the model can be applied to virtually any kind of business enterprise. The several dozen outputs are of two classes: the energetics and the economics. The energetics outputs of primary interest are the energy intensity, also called unit energy consumption, and the total energy consumed. The primary economics outputs are the long-run average cost, profit, cash flow, and return on investment.

Techno-Economic Modeling and Analysis of Redox Flow Battery Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jens Noack

2016-08-01

Full Text Available A techno-economic model was developed to investigate the influence of components on the system costs of redox flow batteries. Sensitivity analyses were carried out based on an example of a 10 kW/120 kWh vanadium redox flow battery system, and the costs of the individual components were analyzed. Particular consideration was given to the influence of the material costs and resistances of bipolar plates and energy storage media as well as voltages and electric currents. Based on the developed model, it was possible to formulate statements about the targeted optimization of a developed non-commercial vanadium redox flow battery system and general aspects for future developments of redox flow batteries.

A review of mathematical models in economic environmental problems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nahorski, Z.; Ravn, H.F.

2000-01-01

The paper presents a review of mathematical models used,in economic analysis of environmental problems. This area of research combines macroeconomic models of growth, as dependent on capital, labour, resources, etc., with environmental models describing such phenomena like natural resources...... exhaustion or pollution accumulation and degradation. In simpler cases the models can be treated analytically and the utility function can be optimized using, e.g., such tools as the maximum principle. In more complicated cases calculation of the optimal environmental policies requires a computer solution....

Analysis of financial support for photovoltaic system installation with the economic simulation model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Imamura, E.; Uchiyama, Y.

1994-01-01

The authors developed a penetration method of dispersed generation technologies and tried to investigate economic simulation on photovoltaic systems. The model is composed of several analysis modules; a technology application module, a regional meteorology module, cost modules such as capital cost, power generation cost, marginal cost and avoided cost, and a logistic penetration module. The database management system of application forms, meteorological data, energy demand and equipment costs is also developed to support the model. The main purpose of the study is to make clear impacts to the power supply configuration and cost/benefit effects when PV systems are installed into several different sectors in Japan. The ultimate potential of PV system is 235, 103MWp and its market potential is 15,172 MWp in Japan. Market penetration highly depends on cost learning factors of several components of PV system. The installed capacity with 50% subsidy is 5 times larger than that with 67%. In conclusion, it is feasible for government or utilities to financially support the promotion and installation of PV systems as the electricity supply system

Economic analysis of open space box model utilization in spacecraft

Science.gov (United States)

Mohammad, Atif F.; Straub, Jeremy

2015-05-01

It is a known fact that the amount of data about space that is stored is getting larger on an everyday basis. However, the utilization of Big Data and related tools to perform ETL (Extract, Transform and Load) applications will soon be pervasive in the space sciences. We have entered in a crucial time where using Big Data can be the difference (for terrestrial applications) between organizations underperforming and outperforming their peers. The same is true for NASA and other space agencies, as well as for individual missions and the highly-competitive process of mission data analysis and publication. In most industries, conventional opponents and new candidates alike will influence data-driven approaches to revolutionize and capture the value of Big Data archives. The Open Space Box Model is poised to take the proverbial "giant leap", as it provides autonomic data processing and communications for spacecraft. We can find economic value generated from such use of data processing in our earthly organizations in every sector, such as healthcare, retail. We also can easily find retailers, performing research on Big Data, by utilizing sensors driven embedded data in products within their stores and warehouses to determine how these products are actually used in the real world.

Economic Modeling and Analysis of Educational Vouchers

Science.gov (United States)

Epple, Dennis; Romano, Richard

2012-01-01

The analysis of educational vouchers has evolved from market-based analogies to models that incorporate distinctive features of the educational environment. These distinctive features include peer effects, scope for private school pricing and admissions based on student characteristics, the linkage of household residential and school choices in…

A Geospatial Cyberinfrastructure for Urban Economic Analysis and Spatial Decision-Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael F. Goodchild

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Urban economic modeling and effective spatial planning are critical tools towards achieving urban sustainability. However, in practice, many technical obstacles, such as information islands, poor documentation of data and lack of software platforms to facilitate virtual collaboration, are challenging the effectiveness of decision-making processes. In this paper, we report on our efforts to design and develop a geospatial cyberinfrastructure (GCI for urban economic analysis and simulation. This GCI provides an operational graphic user interface, built upon a service-oriented architecture to allow (1 widespread sharing and seamless integration of distributed geospatial data; (2 an effective way to address the uncertainty and positional errors encountered in fusing data from diverse sources; (3 the decomposition of complex planning questions into atomic spatial analysis tasks and the generation of a web service chain to tackle such complex problems; and (4 capturing and representing provenance of geospatial data to trace its flow in the modeling task. The Greater Los Angeles Region serves as the test bed. We expect this work to contribute to effective spatial policy analysis and decision-making through the adoption of advanced GCI and to broaden the application coverage of GCI to include urban economic simulations.

Economic analysis of nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Man Ki; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Song, K. D.; Oh, K. B.

2004-12-01

This study evaluated the role of nuclear energy in various aspects in order to provide a more comprehensive standard of judgement to the justification of the utilization of nuclear energy. Firstly, this study evaluated the economic value addition of nuclear power generation technology and Radio-Isotope(RI) technology quantitatively by using modified Input-Output table. Secondly, a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of nuclear power generation was conducted with an effort to quantify the foreign exchange expenditure, the environmental damage cost during 1986-2015 for each scenario. Thirdly, the effect of the regulation of CO 2 emission on the Korean electric supply system was investigated. In more detail, an optimal composition of power plant mix by energy source was investigated, under the assumption of the CO 2 emission regulation at a certain level, by using MESSAGE model. Finally, the economic spillover effect from technology self-reliance of NSSS by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute was evaluated. Both production spillover effect and value addition spillover effect were estimated by using Input-Output table

Methods of international health technology assessment agencies for economic evaluations--a comparative analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Mathes, Tim; Jacobs, Esther; Morfeld, Jana-Carina; Pieper, Dawid

2013-09-30

The number of Health Technology Assessment (HTA) agencies increases. One component of HTAs are economic aspects. To incorporate economic aspects commonly economic evaluations are performed. A convergence of recommendations for methods of health economic evaluations between international HTA agencies would facilitate the adaption of results to different settings and avoid unnecessary expense. A first step in this direction is a detailed analysis of existing similarities and differences in recommendations to identify potential for harmonization. The objective is to provide an overview and comparison of the methodological recommendations of international HTA agencies for economic evaluations. The webpages of 127 international HTA agencies were searched for guidelines containing recommendations on methods for the preparation of economic evaluations. Additionally, the HTA agencies were requested information on methods for economic evaluations. Recommendations of the included guidelines were extracted in standardized tables according to 13 methodological aspects. All process steps were performed independently by two reviewers. Finally 25 publications of 14 HTA agencies were included in the analysis. Methods for economic evaluations vary widely. The greatest accordance could be found for the type of analysis and comparator. Cost-utility-analyses or cost-effectiveness-analyses are recommended. The comparator should continuously be usual care. Again the greatest differences were shown in the recommendations on the measurement/sources of effects, discounting and in the analysis of sensitivity. The main difference regarding effects is the focus either on efficacy or effectiveness. Recommended discounting rates range from 1.5%-5% for effects and 3%-5% for costs whereby it is mostly recommended to use the same rate for costs and effects. With respect to the analysis of sensitivity the main difference is that oftentimes the probabilistic or deterministic approach is recommended

The Relationship between Logistics and Economic Development in Indonesia: Analysis of Time Series Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Reza

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the relationship between logistics and economic development in Indonesia using time series data on traffic volume and economic growth for the period from 1988 to 2010. Literature reviews were conducted to find the most applicable econometric model. The data of cargo volume that travels through sea, air and rail is used as the logistics index, while GDP is used for the economic index. The time series data was tested using stationarity and co-integration tests. Granger causality tests were employed, and then a proposed logistic model is presented. This study showed that logistics plays an important role in supporting and sustaining economic growth, in a form where the economic growth is the significant demand-pull effect towards logistics. Although the model is developed in the context of Indonesia, the overall statistical analysis can be generalized to other developing economies. Based on the model, this paper presented the importance of sustaining economic development with regards continuously improving the logistics infrastructure.

R.M. Solow Adjusted Model of Economic Growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ion Gh. Rosca

2007-05-01

The analysis part of the model is based on the study of the equilibrium to the continuous case with some interpretations of the discreet one, by using the state diagram. The optimization problem at the economic level is also used; it is built up of a specified number of representative consumers and firms in order to reveal the interaction between these elements.

Controlling highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks : An epidemiological and economic model analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Backer, J. A.; van Roermund, H. J W; Fischer, Egil; van Asseldonk, M. A P M; Bergevoet, R. H M

2015-01-01

Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) can cause large losses for the poultry sector and for animal disease controlling authorities, as well as risks for animal and human welfare. In the current simulation approach epidemiological and economic models are combined to compare different

Analysis and Application of Quality Economics Based on Input-Output

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Qiang; Li, Xin

2018-01-01

Quality economics analysis is an important research area in the current economic frontier, which has a huge role in promoting the quality-benefit type road development in China. Through the study of quality economics analysis and application, economics of quality and quality economics management are summarized, and theoretical framework of quality economics analysis is constructed. Finally, the quality economics analysis of aerospace equipment is taken as an example to carry on the application research.

Los Alamos National Laboratory Economic Analysis Capability Overview

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Information Systems and Modeling Group; Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Information Systems and Modeling Group; Pasqualini, Donatella [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Information Systems and Modeling Group; Rivera, Michael Kelly [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Information Systems and Modeling Group

2016-04-19

Los Alamos National Laboratory has developed two types of models to compute the economic impact of infrastructure disruptions. FastEcon is a fast running model that estimates first-­order economic impacts of large scale events such as hurricanes and floods and can be used to identify the amount of economic activity that occurs in a specific area. LANL’s Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model estimates more comprehensive static and dynamic economic impacts of a broader array of events and captures the interactions between sectors and industries when estimating economic impacts.

Efficiency of economic development models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oana Camelia Iacob

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The world economy is becoming increasingly integrated. Integrating emerging economies of Asia, such as China and India increase competition on the world stage, putting pressure on the "actors" already existing. These developments have raised questions about the effectiveness of European development model, which focuses on a high level of equity, insurance and social protection. According to analysts, the world today faces three models of economic development with significant weight in the world: the European, American and Asian. This study will focus on analyzing European development model, and a brief comparison with the United States. In addition, this study aims to highlight the relationship between efficiency and social equity that occurs in each submodel in part of the European model, given that social and economic performance in the EU are not homogeneous. To achieve this, it is necessary to analyze different indicators related to social equity and efficiency respectively, to observe the performance of each submodel individually. The article analyzes data to determine submodel performance according to social equity and economic efficiency.

Economic impacts study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brunsen, W.; Worley, W.; Frost, E.

1988-09-30

This is a progress report on the first phase of a project to measure the economic impacts of a rapidly changing U.S. target base. The purpose of the first phase is to designate and test the macroeconomic impact analysis model. Criteria were established for a decision-support model. Additional criteria were defined for an interactive macroeconomic impact analysis model. After a review of several models, the Economic Impact Forecast System model of the U.S. Army Construction Research Laboratory was selected as the appropriate input-output tool that can address local and regional economic analysis. The model was applied to five test cases to demonstrate its utility and define possible revisions to meet project criteria. A plan for EIFS access was defined at three levels. Objectives and tasks for scenario refinement are proposed.

HOMER Economic Models - US Navy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bush, Jason William [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Myers, Kurt Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2016-02-01

This LETTER REPORT has been prepared by Idaho National Laboratory for US Navy NAVFAC EXWC to support in testing pre-commercial SIREN (Simulated Integration of Renewable Energy Networks) computer software models. In the logistics mode SIREN software simulates the combination of renewable power sources (solar arrays, wind turbines, and energy storage systems) in supplying an electrical demand. NAVFAC EXWC will create SIREN software logistics models of existing or planned renewable energy projects at five Navy locations (San Nicolas Island, AUTEC, New London, & China Lake), and INL will deliver additional HOMER computer models for comparative analysis. In the transient mode SIREN simulates the short time-scale variation of electrical parameters when a power outage or other destabilizing event occurs. In the HOMER model, a variety of inputs are entered such as location coordinates, Generators, PV arrays, Wind Turbines, Batteries, Converters, Grid costs/usage, Solar resources, Wind resources, Temperatures, Fuels, and Electric Loads. HOMER's optimization and sensitivity analysis algorithms then evaluate the economic and technical feasibility of these technology options and account for variations in technology costs, electric load, and energy resource availability. The Navy can then use HOMER’s optimization and sensitivity results to compare to those of the SIREN model. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Idaho National Laboratory (INL) possesses unique expertise and experience in the software, hardware, and systems design for the integration of renewable energy into the electrical grid. NAVFAC EXWC will draw upon this expertise to complete mission requirements.

METHODS AND MODELS FOR ANALYSIS OF THE ORGANIZATIONAL ECONOMICS ACTIVITY USED FOR DEVELOPMENT OF INFORMATICS SYSTEMS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

TEODORA VĂTUIU

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Study of organizational activity and highlighting problem situations that require specific solutions, require a detailed analysis of the models defined for the real system of the economic companies, regarded not as a sum of assets, but as organizations in which there are activities related into processes. In addition to the usual approach of using modeling languages in the development of information systems, in this paper we intend to present some examples that demonstrate the usefulness of a standard modeling language (UML to analyze organizational activities and to report problem situations that may occur in data management registered on primary documents or in processes that bring together activities. Examples that have been focused on a travel agency can be extrapolated to any other organization, and the diagrams can be used in different contexts, depending on the complexity of the activities identified.

Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Man Ki; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Oh, K. B.

2006-12-01

It has been well recognized that securing economic viabilities along with technologies are very important elements in the successful implementation of nuclear R and D projects. The objective of the Project is to help nuclear energy to be utilized in an efficient way by analyzing major issues related with nuclear economics. The study covers following subjects: the role of nuclear in the future electric supply system, economic analysis of nuclear R and D project, contribution to the regional economy from nuclear power. In addition, the study introduces the international cooperation in the methodological area of efficient use of nuclear energy by surveying the international activities related with nuclear economics

Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Man Ki; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Oh, K. B

2006-12-15

It has been well recognized that securing economic viabilities along with technologies are very important elements in the successful implementation of nuclear R and D projects. The objective of the Project is to help nuclear energy to be utilized in an efficient way by analyzing major issues related with nuclear economics. The study covers following subjects: the role of nuclear in the future electric supply system, economic analysis of nuclear R and D project, contribution to the regional economy from nuclear power. In addition, the study introduces the international cooperation in the methodological area of efficient use of nuclear energy by surveying the international activities related with nuclear economics.

Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

Science.gov (United States)

Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

2008-01-01

Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

Advanced Economic Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Greenberg, Marc W.; Laing, William

2013-01-01

An Economic Analysis (EA) is a systematic approach to the problem of choosing the best method of allocating scarce resources to achieve a given objective. An EA helps guide decisions on the "worth" of pursuing an action that departs from status quo ... an EA is the crux of decision-support.

The Economics of Online Dating: A Course in Economic Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Monaco, Andrew J.

2018-01-01

The author discusses the development of a unique course, The Economics of Online Dating. The course is an upper-level undergraduate course that combines intensive discussion, peer review, and economic theory to teach modeling skills to undergraduates. The course uses the framework of "online dating," interpreted broadly, as a point of…

Structural modelling of economic growth: Technological changes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sukharev Oleg

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Neoclassical and Keynesian theories of economic growth assume the use of Cobb-Douglas modified functions and other aggregate econometric approaches to growth dynamics modelling. In that case explanations of economic growth are based on the logic of the used mathematical ratios often including the ideas about aggregated values change and factors change a priori. The idea of assessment of factor productivity is the fundamental one among modern theories of economic growth. Nevertheless, structural parameters of economic system, institutions and technological changes are practically not considered within known approaches, though the latter is reflected in the changing parameters of production function. At the same time, on the one hand, the ratio of structural elements determines the future value of the total productivity of the factors and, on the other hand, strongly influences the rate of economic growth and its mode of innovative dynamics. To put structural parameters of economic system into growth models with the possibility of assessment of such modes under conditions of interaction of new and old combinations is an essential step in the development of the theory of economic growth/development. It allows forming stimulation policy of economic growth proceeding from the structural ratios and relations recognized for this economic system. It is most convenient in such models to use logistic functions demonstrating the resource change for old and new combination within the economic system. The result of economy development depends on starting conditions, and on institutional parameters of velocity change of resource borrowing in favour of a new combination and creation of its own resource. Model registration of the resource is carried out through the idea of investments into new and old combinations.

A Reformulation of Normative Economics for Models with Endogenous

OpenAIRE

Bhatt, Vipul; Ogaki, Masao; Yaguchi, Yuichi

2015-01-01

This paper proposes a framework to balance considerations of welfarism and virtue ethics in the normative analysis of economic models with endogenous preferences. We introduce the moral evaluation function (MEF), which ranks alternatives based purely on virtue ethics, and define the social objective function (SOF), which combines the Social Welfare Function (SWF) and the MEF. In a model of intergenerational altruism with endogenous time preference, using numerical simulations we show that max...

Development of a Conceptual Model of Disease Progression for Use in Economic Modeling of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Tabberer, Maggie; Gonzalez-McQuire, Sebastian; Muellerova, Hana; Briggs, Andrew H; Rutten-van Mölken, Maureen P M H; Chambers, Mike; Lomas, David A

2017-05-01

To develop and validate a new conceptual model (CM) of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) for use in disease progression and economic modeling. The CM identifies and describes qualitative associations between disease attributes, progression and outcomes. A literature review was performed to identify any published CMs or literature reporting the impact and association of COPD disease attributes with outcomes. After critical analysis of the literature, a Steering Group of experts from the disciplines of health economics, epidemiology and clinical medicine was convened to develop a draft CM, which was refined using a Delphi process. The refined CM was validated by testing for associations between attributes using data from the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints (ECLIPSE). Disease progression attributes included in the final CM were history and occurrence of exacerbations, lung function, exercise capacity, signs and symptoms (cough, sputum, dyspnea), cardiovascular disease comorbidities, 'other' comorbidities (including depression), body composition (body mass index), fibrinogen as a biomarker, smoking and demographic characteristics (age, gender). Mortality and health-related quality of life were determined to be the most relevant final outcome measures for this model, intended to be the foundation of an economic model of COPD. The CM is being used as the foundation for developing a new COPD model of disease progression and to provide a framework for the analysis of patient-level data. The CM is available as a reference for the implementation of further disease progression and economic models.

Economic Analysis of Pyro-SFR Fuel Cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao, Fanxing; Park, Byungheung; Kwon, Eunha; Ko, Wonil

2010-01-01

In this study, based on the material flow the economics of Pyro-SFR has been estimated. These are mainly two methodologies to perform nuclear fuel cycle cost study which is based on the material flow calculations. One is equilibrium model and the other is dynamic model. Equilibrium model focus on the batch study with the assumptions that the whole system is in a steady state and mass flow as well as the electricity production all through the fuel cycle is in equilibrium state, which calculates the electricity production within a certain period and associated material flow with reference to unit cost in order to obtain the cost of electricity. Dynamic model takes the time factor into consideration to simulate the actual cases. Compared with the dynamic analysis model, the outcome of equilibrium model is more theoretical comparisons, especially with regard to the large uncertainty of the development of the pyro-technology evaluated. In this study equilibrium model was built to calculate the material flow on a batch basis. With the unit cost being determined, the cost of each step of fuel cycle could be obtained, so does the FMC. Due to the unavoidable uncertainty with certain unit costs, evaluated cost range and uncertainty study are applied. Sensitivity analysis has also been performed to obtain the breakeven uranium price for Pyro-SFR against PWR-O T. Economics of Pyro-SFR fuel cycle scenario has been calculated and compared by employing equilibrium model. The LFCC were obtained, Pyro-SFR 7.68 mills/kWh. The Uranium price is the dominant driver of LFCC. Pyro-techniques also weight considerably in Pyro-SFR scenario. On consideration of the current unavoidable uncertainties introduced by certain cost data, cost range and triangle techniques were used to perform the uncertainty study which indicates that the gap between Pyro-SFR and PWR-O T fuel cycle scenario is relatively small

ECONOMIC FORECASTS BASED ON ECONOMETRIC MODELS USING EViews 5

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cornelia TomescuDumitrescu,

2009-05-01

Full Text Available The forecast of evolution of economic phenomena represent on the most the final objective of econometrics. It withal represent a real attempt of validity elaborate model. Unlike the forecasts based on the study of temporal series which have an recognizable inertial character the forecasts generated by econometric model with simultaneous equations are after to contour the future of ones of important economic variables toward the direct and indirect influences bring the bear on their about exogenous variables. For the relief of the calculus who the realization of the forecasts based on the econometric models its suppose is indicate the use of the specialized informatics programs. One of this is the EViews which is applied because it reduces significant the time who is destined of the econometric analysis and it assure a high accuracy of calculus and of the interpretation of results.

Data Driven Economic Model Predictive Control

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Masoud Kheradmandi

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This manuscript addresses the problem of data driven model based economic model predictive control (MPC design. To this end, first, a data-driven Lyapunov-based MPC is designed, and shown to be capable of stabilizing a system at an unstable equilibrium point. The data driven Lyapunov-based MPC utilizes a linear time invariant (LTI model cognizant of the fact that the training data, owing to the unstable nature of the equilibrium point, has to be obtained from closed-loop operation or experiments. Simulation results are first presented demonstrating closed-loop stability under the proposed data-driven Lyapunov-based MPC. The underlying data-driven model is then utilized as the basis to design an economic MPC. The economic improvements yielded by the proposed method are illustrated through simulations on a nonlinear chemical process system example.

Assessment of the Value, Impact, and Validity of the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Suite of Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Billman, L.; Keyser, D.

2013-08-01

The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) models, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), use input-output methodology to estimate gross (not net) jobs and economic impacts of building and operating selected types of renewable electricity generation and fuel plants. This analysis provides the DOE with an assessment of the value, impact, and validity of the JEDI suite of models. While the models produce estimates of jobs, earnings, and economic output, this analysis focuses only on jobs estimates. This validation report includes an introduction to JEDI models, an analysis of the value and impact of the JEDI models, and an analysis of the validity of job estimates generated by JEDI model through comparison to other modeled estimates and comparison to empirical, observed jobs data as reported or estimated for a commercial project, a state, or a region.

Social and Economic Analysis Branch: integrating policy, social, economic, and natural science

Science.gov (United States)

Schuster, Rudy; Walters, Katie D.

2015-01-01

The Fort Collins Science Center's Social and Economic Analysis Branch provides unique capabilities in the U.S. Geological Survey by leading projects that integrate social, behavioral, economic, and natural science in the context of human–natural resource interactions. Our research provides scientific understanding and support for the management and conservation of our natural resources in support of multiple agency missions. We focus on meeting the scientific needs of the Department of the Interior natural resource management bureaus in addition to fostering partnerships with other Federal and State managers to protect, restore, and enhance our environment. The Social and Economic Analysis Branch has an interdisciplinary group of scientists whose primary functions are to conduct both theoretical and applied social science research, provide technical assistance, and offer training to support the development of skills in natural resource management activities. Management and research issues associated with human-resource interactions typically occur in a unique context and require knowledge of both natural and social sciences, along with the skill to integrate multiple science disciplines. In response to these challenging contexts, Social and Economic Analysis Branch researchers apply a wide variety of social science concepts and methods which complement our rangeland/agricultural, wildlife, ecology, and biology capabilities. The goal of the Social and Economic Analysis Branch's research is to enhance natural-resource management, agency functions, policies, and decisionmaking.

Continuous spatial modelling to analyse planning and economic consequences of offshore wind energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moeller, Bernd

2011-01-01

Offshore wind resources appear abundant, but technological, economic and planning issues significantly reduce the theoretical potential. While massive investments are anticipated and planners and developers are scouting for viable locations and consider risk and impact, few studies simultaneously address potentials and costs together with the consequences of proposed planning in an analytical and continuous manner and for larger areas at once. Consequences may be investments short of efficiency and equity, and failed planning routines. A spatial resource economic model for the Danish offshore waters is presented, used to analyse area constraints, technological risks, priorities for development and opportunity costs of maintaining competing area uses. The SCREAM-offshore wind model (Spatially Continuous Resource Economic Analysis Model) uses raster-based geographical information systems (GIS) and considers numerous geographical factors, technology and cost data as well as planning information. Novel elements are weighted visibility analysis and geographically recorded shipping movements as variable constraints. A number of scenarios have been described, which include restrictions of using offshore areas, as well as alternative uses such as conservation and tourism. The results comprise maps, tables and cost-supply curves for further resource economic assessment and policy analysis. A discussion of parameter variations exposes uncertainties of technology development, environmental protection as well as competing area uses and illustrates how such models might assist in ameliorating public planning, while procuring decision bases for the political process. The method can be adapted to different research questions, and is largely applicable in other parts of the world. - Research Highlights: → A model for the spatially continuous evaluation of offshore wind resources. → Assessment of spatial constraints, costs and resources for each location. → Planning tool for

The modelling of economic consequences in COSYMA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Faude, D.

1991-01-01

A new model for assessing the economic consequences of accidents, called COCO-1 (Cost of Consequences Off-site) has been developed jointly by NRPB and KfK under the CEC MARIA programme. This paper describes the way in which this model, together with other options, has been implemented in the ECONOMICS module of COSYMA. For consistency with the other parts of COSYMA, the coding of the ECONOMICS module is flexible: in several areas, alternative calculational methods are available and the user may select the method by which a particular cost is calculated. To some extent, economic models other than the COCO-1 model may be applied. There are two types of input data in the ECONOMICS module. These are (1) data from preceding COSYMA modules which quantify the magnitude and distribution of health effects and the impact of countermeasures, and (2) economic data, in terms of costs per unit quantity, to convert the preceding data into monetary values. The structure of the module has been determined by the form and availability of the input data, and the general structure of COSYMA. Details of the method of calculation, and the necessary input data, are discussed, for calculation of the economic consequences of the countermeasures considered in COSYMA (evacuation, relocation, sheltering, decontamination and food bans) and for early and late health effects

Parametric sensitivity analysis for techno-economic parameters in Indian power sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mallah, Subhash; Bansal, N.K.

2011-01-01

Sensitivity analysis is a technique that evaluates the model response to changes in input assumptions. Due to uncertain prices of primary fuels in the world market, Government regulations for sustainability and various other technical parameters there is a need to analyze the techno-economic parameters which play an important role in policy formulations. This paper examines the variations in technical as well as economic parameters that can mostly affect the energy policy of India. MARKAL energy simulation model has been used to analyze the uncertainty in all techno-economic parameters. Various ranges of input parameters are adopted from previous studies. The results show that at lower discount rate coal is the least preferred technology and correspondingly carbon emission reduction. With increased gas and nuclear fuel prices they disappear from the allocations of energy mix.

Assessing groundwater policy with coupled economic-groundwater hydrologic modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Mulligan, Kevin B.; Brown, Casey; Yang, Yi-Chen E.; Ahlfeld, David P.

2014-03-01

This study explores groundwater management policies and the effect of modeling assumptions on the projected performance of those policies. The study compares an optimal economic allocation for groundwater use subject to streamflow constraints, achieved by a central planner with perfect foresight, with a uniform tax on groundwater use and a uniform quota on groundwater use. The policies are compared with two modeling approaches, the Optimal Control Model (OCM) and the Multi-Agent System Simulation (MASS). The economic decision models are coupled with a physically based representation of the aquifer using a calibrated MODFLOW groundwater model. The results indicate that uniformly applied policies perform poorly when simulated with more realistic, heterogeneous, myopic, and self-interested agents. In particular, the effects of the physical heterogeneity of the basin and the agents undercut the perceived benefits of policy instruments assessed with simple, single-cell groundwater modeling. This study demonstrates the results of coupling realistic hydrogeology and human behavior models to assess groundwater management policies. The Republican River Basin, which overlies a portion of the Ogallala aquifer in the High Plains of the United States, is used as a case study for this analysis.

Economics, modeling, planning and management of energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogner, H.H.; Khan, A.M.; Furlan, G.

1989-01-01

The Workshop attended by 89 participants from 40 countries aimed to provide participants with an overview of global and regional issues and to familiarize them with analytical tools and modeling techniques appropriate for the analysis and planning of national energy systems. Emphasis was placed on energy-economy-interaction, modelling for balancing energy demand and supply, technical-economic evaluation of energy supply alternatives and energy demand management. This volume presents some of the lectures delivered at the Workshop. The material has been organized in five parts under the headings General Review of Current Energy Trends, Energy and Technology Menu, Basic Analytical Approaches, Energy Modeling and Planning, and Energy Management and Policy. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the lectures presented. Refs, figs and tabs

Modeling, performance analysis and economic feasibility of a mirror-augmented photovoltaic system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fortunato, B.; Torresi, M.; Deramo, A.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Mathematical modeling for the energy yield in Mirror Augmented PV systems. • Simplified analytical expression for skyview factor applicable to MAPV. • Economic appraisal of MAPV systems: NPV, DPBP, IRR and LCC. - Abstract: In the last years, solar photovoltaic (PV) systems have had great impetus with research and demonstration projects, both in Italy and other European countries. The main problems with solar PV are the cost of solar electricity, which is still higher compared with other renewables (such as wind or biomass), due to the cost of semi-conductors, and the low conversion efficiency. However, PV panel prices are rapidly decreasing benefiting from favorable economies of scale. For instance, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) the US average levelized costs for plants entering service in the 2018 should be 144.3$/MW h for solar PV, whereas 111.0$/MW h for biomass and 86.6$/MW h for wind (Levelized Cost of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook, 2013). In order to increase the electric yield of PV modules (which can be even doubled with respect to constant tilt configurations), without significantly increasing the system costs, it was decided to consider the addition of inclined mirrors at both sides of the PV modules, so as to deflect more solar rays towards them, as in Mirror-Augmented Photovoltaic (MAPV) systems. The system preserves its constructive simplicity with commercial flat PV modules even though dual axis tracker must be implemented, since MAPV systems harness mainly the direct radiation. The performance analysis of MAPV systems starts from the calculation of the global irradiation on the surface of the PV module which is a sum of the direct sunlight on it and the irradiation reflected by the mirrors. A mathematical model of a MAPV system is presented, which takes into account not only the increase of direct (or beam) radiation, due to the mirrors, but also the reduction of both the diffuse

Analysis of carbon mitigation technology to 2050 in Japan through integrated energy economic model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Komiyama, Ryoichi; Suzuki, Kengo; Nagatomi, Yu; Matsuo, Yuji; Suehiro, Shigeru

2011-01-01

This paper describes the outline of integrated energy economic model and calculated result concerning the outlook of energy and carbon dioxide emissions in Japan to 2050. The energy model developed in this paper is integrated one which consistently combines econometric model endogenously generating socio-economic outlook and bottom-up type technology model, MARKAL, identifying cost-minimizing optimal mix of various energy technologies. In reference scenario which imposes no carbon emissions constraint, CO 2 emission in 2050 will decrease by approximately 40% from the level of emissions in 2005. In carbon-constraints scenario, imposing emissions cap of 60% reduction by 2050 from the emissions in 2005, natural gas-fired power plant equipped with CCS and renewable energy are expected to expand its portion in power generation mix. In transportation sector on this scenario, clean energy vehicles such as electric vehicle (EV) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (FCV) will be deployed and contribute to mitigate CO 2 emissions. (author)

Replicating Health Economic Models: Firm Foundations or a House of Cards?

Science.gov (United States)

Bermejo, Inigo; Tappenden, Paul; Youn, Ji-Hee

2017-11-01

Health economic evaluation is a framework for the comparative analysis of the incremental health gains and costs associated with competing decision alternatives. The process of developing health economic models is usually complex, financially expensive and time-consuming. For these reasons, model development is sometimes based on previous model-based analyses; this endeavour is usually referred to as model replication. Such model replication activity may involve the comprehensive reproduction of an existing model or 'borrowing' all or part of a previously developed model structure. Generally speaking, the replication of an existing model may require substantially less effort than developing a new de novo model by bypassing, or undertaking in only a perfunctory manner, certain aspects of model development such as the development of a complete conceptual model and/or comprehensive literature searching for model parameters. A further motivation for model replication may be to draw on the credibility or prestige of previous analyses that have been published and/or used to inform decision making. The acceptability and appropriateness of replicating models depends on the decision-making context: there exists a trade-off between the 'savings' afforded by model replication and the potential 'costs' associated with reduced model credibility due to the omission of certain stages of model development. This paper provides an overview of the different levels of, and motivations for, replicating health economic models, and discusses the advantages, disadvantages and caveats associated with this type of modelling activity. Irrespective of whether replicated models should be considered appropriate or not, complete replicability is generally accepted as a desirable property of health economic models, as reflected in critical appraisal checklists and good practice guidelines. To this end, the feasibility of comprehensive model replication is explored empirically across a small

Thermo-economic analysis of Shiraz solar thermal power plant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yaghoubi, M. [Academy of Science, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Mokhtari, A.; Hesami, R. [Shiraz Univ., Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of). School of Engineering

2007-07-01

The Shiraz solar thermal power plant in Iran has 48 parabolic trough collectors (PTCs) which are used to heat the working oil. There is potential to significantly increase the performance and reduce the cost of PTC solar thermal electric technologies. Conventional energy analysis based on the first law of thermodynamics does qualitatively assess the various losses occurring in the components. Therefore, exergy analysis, based on the second law of thermodynamics, can be applied to better assess various losses quantitatively as well as qualitatively. This paper presented a newly developed exergy-economic model for the Shiraz solar thermal power plant. The objective was to find the minimum exergetic production cost (EPC), based on the second law of thermodynamics. The application of exergy-economic analysis includes the evaluation of utility supply costs for production plants, and the energy costs for process operations. The purpose of the analysis was to minimize the total operating costs of the solar thermal power plant by assuming a fixed rate of electricity production and process steam. 21 refs., 3 tabs., 8 figs.

Moving forward socio-economically focused models of deforestation.

Science.gov (United States)

Dezécache, Camille; Salles, Jean-Michel; Vieilledent, Ghislain; Hérault, Bruno

2017-09-01

Whilst high-resolution spatial variables contribute to a good fit of spatially explicit deforestation models, socio-economic processes are often beyond the scope of these models. Such a low level of interest in the socio-economic dimension of deforestation limits the relevancy of these models for decision-making and may be the cause of their failure to accurately predict observed deforestation trends in the medium term. This study aims to propose a flexible methodology for taking into account multiple drivers of deforestation in tropical forested areas, where the intensity of deforestation is explicitly predicted based on socio-economic variables. By coupling a model of deforestation location based on spatial environmental variables with several sub-models of deforestation intensity based on socio-economic variables, we were able to create a map of predicted deforestation over the period 2001-2014 in French Guiana. This map was compared to a reference map for accuracy assessment, not only at the pixel scale but also over cells ranging from 1 to approximately 600 sq. km. Highly significant relationships were explicitly established between deforestation intensity and several socio-economic variables: population growth, the amount of agricultural subsidies, gold and wood production. Such a precise characterization of socio-economic processes allows to avoid overestimation biases in high deforestation areas, suggesting a better integration of socio-economic processes in the models. Whilst considering deforestation as a purely geographical process contributes to the creation of conservative models unable to effectively assess changes in the socio-economic and political contexts influencing deforestation trends, this explicit characterization of the socio-economic dimension of deforestation is critical for the creation of deforestation scenarios in REDD+ projects. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth in the Western Balkan Countries: An Empirical Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Prof. Dr Nasir Selimi

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this research paper is to empirically analyse the effects of tourism on economic growth in Western Balkan countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, FYROM, Montenegro and Serbia. Design/Methodology/Approach: The empirical analysis consists of 17-year panel data of 6 countries over the period 1998 to 2014. Several models are analysed using the panel regression econometric techniques. The study investigates the random and fixed effects, as well as individual heterogeneity across those countries. Also, the Hausman Taylor IV estimator is used as the most appropriate model for this analysis. The real income per capita of the sample countries is modelled as dependent on the lagged income per capita, tourist arrivals, tourism receipts, FDI stock, exports and government expenditures. Findings: The estimation results in all types of models, and indicate that tourism has a positive and significant impact on economic growth in the Western Balkan countries. The Hausman Taylor IV model suggests that for every 1% increase of tourist arrivals, the output will increase approximately by 0.08%. Research limitations/implications: Although the Hausman Taylor IV model performs well, the results should be interpreted with caution. The analysis has its limitations; firstly, the total number of observations is relatively small for a panel regression analysis; secondly, the problem of endogenity is not completely avoided. However, the study implies that these countries should enhance efforts for joint tourism sector policies to engender economic sustainability. Originality/Value: To our best knowledge, this is the first attempt of estimating the effects of tourism on economic growth in the Western Balkan countries using the Hausman Taylor IV model.

A hydrologic-economic modeling approach for analysis of urban water supply dynamics in Chennai, India

Science.gov (United States)

Srinivasan, Veena; Gorelick, Steven M.; Goulder, Lawrence

2010-07-01

In this paper, we discuss a challenging water resources problem in a developing world city, Chennai, India. The goal is to reconstruct past system behavior and diagnose the causes of a major water crisis. In order to do this, we develop a hydrologic-engineering-economic model to address the complexity of urban water supply arising from consumers' dependence on multiple interconnected sources of water. We integrate different components of the urban water system: water flowing into the reservoir system; diversion and distribution by the public water utility; groundwater flow in the aquifer beneath the city; supply, demand, and prices in the informal tanker-truck-based water market; and consumer behavior. Both the economic and physical impacts of consumers' dependence on multiple sources of water are quantified. The model is calibrated over the period 2002-2006 using a range of hydrologic and socio-economic data. The model's results highlight the inadequacy of the reservoir system and the buffering role played by the urban aquifer and consumers' coping investments during multiyear droughts.

[Decision modeling for economic evaluation of health technologies].

Science.gov (United States)

de Soárez, Patrícia Coelho; Soares, Marta Oliveira; Novaes, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh

2014-10-01

Most economic evaluations that participate in decision-making processes for incorporation and financing of technologies of health systems use decision models to assess the costs and benefits of the compared strategies. Despite the large number of economic evaluations conducted in Brazil, there is a pressing need to conduct an in-depth methodological study of the types of decision models and their applicability in our setting. The objective of this literature review is to contribute to the knowledge and use of decision models in the national context of economic evaluations of health technologies. This article presents general definitions about models and concerns with their use; it describes the main models: decision trees, Markov chains, micro-simulation, simulation of discrete and dynamic events; it discusses the elements involved in the choice of model; and exemplifies the models addressed in national economic evaluation studies of diagnostic and therapeutic preventive technologies and health programs.

Modeling the economic consequences of LWR accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burke, R.P.; Aldrich, D.C.; Rasmussen, N.C.

1984-01-01

Models to be used for analyses of economic risks from events which may occur during LWR plant operation are developed in this study. The models include capabilities to estimate both onsite and offsite costs of LWR events ranging from routine plant outages to severe core-melt accidents resulting in large releases of radioactive material to the environment. The models can be used by both the nuclear power industry and regulatory agencies in cost-benefit analyses for decisionmaking purposes. The newly developed economic consequence models are applied in an example to estimate the economic risks from operation of the Surry Unit 2 plant. The analyses indicate that economic risks from US LWR operation, in contrast to public health risks, are dominated by relatively high-frequency forced outage events. Even for severe (e.g., core-melt) accidents, expected offsite costs are less than expected onsite costs for the Surry site. The implications of these conclusions for nuclear power plant operation and regulation are discussed

Economic analysis of coal price-electricity price adjustment in China based on the CGE model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He, Y.X.; Zhang, S.L.; Yang, L.Y.; Wang, Y.J.; Wang, J.

2010-01-01

In recent years, coal price has risen rapidly, which has also brought a sharp increase in the expenditures of thermal power plants in China. Meantime, the power production price and power retail price have not been adjusted accordingly and a large number of thermal power plants have incurred losses. The power industry is a key industry in the national economy. As such, a thorough analysis and evaluation of the economic influence of the electricity price should be conducted before electricity price adjustment is carried out. This paper analyses the influence of coal price adjustment on the electric power industry, and the influence of electricity price adjustment on the macroeconomy in China based on computable general equilibrium models. The conclusions are as follows: (1) a coal price increase causes a rise in the cost of the electric power industry, but the influence gradually descends with increase in coal price; and (2) an electricity price increase has an adverse influence on the total output, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Electricity price increases have a contractionary effect on economic development and, consequently, electricity price policy making must consequently consider all factors to minimize their adverse influence.

Analysis of Current and Future Water Demands in the Upper Indus Basin under IPCC Climate and Socio-Economic Scenarios Using a Hydro-Economic WEAP Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Amin

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Pakistan is currently facing physical and economic water scarcity issues that are further complicated by the rapid increase in its population and by climate change. Many studies have focused on the physical water scarcity using hydrological modeling and the measurement of the impact of climate change on water resources in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB. However, few studies have concentrated on the importance of the economic water scarcity, that is, the water management issue under the looming impacts of climate change and the population explosion of Pakistan. The purpose of this study is to develop a management strategy which helps to achieve water security and sustainability in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB with the help of different socio-economic and climate change scenarios using WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning modeling. The streamflow data of five sub-basins (Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar, Shyok, and Astore and the entire Upper Indus Basin (UIB were calibrated (2006–2010 and validated (2011–2014 in the WEAP model. The coefficient of determination and Nash Sutcliffe values for the calibration period ranged from 0.81–0.96. The coefficient of determination and the Nash Sutcliffe values for the validation period ranged from 0.85–0.94. After the development of the WEAP model, the analysis of the unmet water demand and percent coverage of the water demand for the period of 2006–2050 was computed. Different scenarios were generated for external driving factors (population growth, urbanization, and living standards and the impact of climate change to evaluate their effect on the current water supply system. The results indicated that the future unmet water demand is likely to reach 134 million cubic meters (mcm by the year 2050 and that the external driving factors are putting more pressure on the supply service. This study further explores the importance of proposed dams (likely to be built until 2025 by WAPDA (Water and Power Development

An Alternative Macro-economic Model for the Classroom

Science.gov (United States)

Holmes, Bryan

1976-01-01

Presents Michal Kalecki's macro-economic model and two-sector version of the model by Robinson and Eatwell as circular flow diagrams. Advantages of using this approach in first-year undergraduate economics programs are discussed. Available from: General Secretary, Economics Association, Room 340, Hamilton House, Mabledon Place, London WC1H 9BH,…

A multidisciplinary-economic framework of analysis

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Piet Keizer

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Human motivation offers energy, and circumstances offer possibilities. Only in combination, human motivation and circumstance yield action. Over time, desires and opportunities, to satisfy them closely, interact with one another. Orthodox economics analyzes economic motivation in interaction with scarce natural resources. It assumes that perfect rationality and non-sociality create a so-called economic world and analyzes the economic mechanism of allocation of scarce resources. Neoclassical economists use this world as a theoretical foundation for their empirical research. Heterodox economics rejects this strategy of isolating one motivation, a strategy that ignores the psychic and the social problem. However, the heterodox idea of human motivation, being variable and endogenous, is badly analyzed. This leads the author to construct a psychic and a social world that is completely comparable with the agent-structure model of the economic world. The three isolated worlds are integrated by analyzing the interactions between the three worlds. In the integrated world, the economic structure, the psychic structure and the social structure are one another’s foundations. This human world gives familiar economic concepts such as utility, efficiency, rationality, price, value, cost and benefit, a different meaning. Similarly, psychic concepts such as Self, willpower and personality and social concepts such as status, power, culture and morality, are given different meanings. To make the model more realistic, it should be made dynamic and historical and be placed in the context of the world as an open system.

Consistent economic cross-sectoral climate change impact scenario analysis: Method and application to Austria

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Karl W. Steininger

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Climate change triggers manifold impacts at the national to local level, which in turn have various economy-wide implications (e.g. on welfare, employment, or tax revenues. In its response, society needs to prioritize which of these impacts to address and what share of resources to spend on each respective adaptation. A prerequisite to achieving that end is an economic impact analysis that is consistent across sectors and acknowledges intersectoral and economy-wide feedback effects. Traditional Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs are usually operating at a level too aggregated for this end, while bottom-up impact models most often are not fully comprehensive, focusing on only a subset of climate sensitive sectors and/or a subset of climate change impact chains. Thus, we develop here an approach which applies climate and socioeconomic scenario analysis, harmonized economic costing, and sector explicit bandwidth analysis in a coupled framework of eleven (biophysical impact assessment models and a uniform multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model. In applying this approach to the alpine country of Austria, we find that macroeconomic feedbacks can magnify sectoral climate damages up to fourfold, or that by mid-century costs of climate change clearly outweigh benefits, with net costs rising two- to fourfold above current damage cost levels. The resulting specific impact information – differentiated by climate and economic drivers – can support sector-specific adaptation as well as adaptive capacity building. Keywords: climate impact, local impact, economic evaluation, adaptation

Agent-based models in economics a toolkit

CERN Document Server

Fagiolo, Giorgio; Gallegati, Mauro; Richiardi, Matteo; Russo, Alberto

2018-01-01

In contrast to mainstream economics, complexity theory conceives the economy as a complex system of heterogeneous interacting agents characterised by limited information and bounded rationality. Agent Based Models (ABMs) are the analytical and computational tools developed by the proponents of this emerging methodology. Aimed at students and scholars of contemporary economics, this book includes a comprehensive toolkit for agent-based computational economics, now quickly becoming the new way to study evolving economic systems. Leading scholars in the field explain how ABMs can be applied fruitfully to many real-world economic examples and represent a great advancement over mainstream approaches. The essays discuss the methodological bases of agent-based approaches and demonstrate step-by-step how to build, simulate and analyse ABMs and how to validate their outputs empirically using the data. They also present a wide set of applications of these models to key economic topics, including the business cycle, lab...

Towards a New Approach of the Economic Intelligence Process: Basic Concepts, Analysis Methods and Informational Tools

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sorin Briciu

2009-04-01

Full Text Available One of the obvious trends in current business environment is the increased competition. In this context, organizations are becoming more and more aware of the importance of knowledge as a key factor in obtaining competitive advantage. A possible solution in knowledge management is Economic Intelligence (EI that involves the collection, evaluation, processing, analysis, and dissemination of economic data (about products, clients, competitors, etc. inside organizations. The availability of massive quantities of data correlated with advances in information and communication technology allowing for the filtering and processing of these data provide new tools for the production of economic intelligence.The research is focused on innovative aspects of economic intelligence process (models of analysis, activities, methods and informational tools and is providing practical guidelines for initiating this process. In this paper, we try: (a to contribute to a coherent view on economic intelligence process (approaches, stages, fields of application; b to describe the most important models of analysis related to this process; c to analyze the activities, methods and tools associated with each stage of an EI process.

Advancing School-Based Interventions through Economic Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Olsson, Tina M.; Ferrer-Wreder, Laura; Eninger, Lilianne

2014-01-01

Commentators interested in school-based prevention programs point to the importance of economic issues for the future of prevention efforts. Many of the processes and aims of prevention science are dependent upon prevention resources. Although economic analysis is an essential tool for assessing resource use, the attention given economic analysis…

Large scale hydro-economic modelling for policy support

Science.gov (United States)

de Roo, Ad; Burek, Peter; Bouraoui, Faycal; Reynaud, Arnaud; Udias, Angel; Pistocchi, Alberto; Lanzanova, Denis; Trichakis, Ioannis; Beck, Hylke; Bernhard, Jeroen

2014-05-01

To support European Union water policy making and policy monitoring, a hydro-economic modelling environment has been developed to assess optimum combinations of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures for continental Europe. This modelling environment consists of linking the agricultural CAPRI model, the LUMP land use model, the LISFLOOD water quantity model, the EPIC water quality model, the LISQUAL combined water quantity, quality and hydro-economic model, and a multi-criteria optimisation routine. With this modelling environment, river basin scale simulations are carried out to assess the effects of water-retention measures, water-saving measures, and nutrient-reduction measures on several hydro-chemical indicators, such as the Water Exploitation Index (WEI), Nitrate and Phosphate concentrations in rivers, the 50-year return period river discharge as an indicator for flooding, and economic losses due to water scarcity for the agricultural sector, the manufacturing-industry sector, the energy-production sector and the domestic sector, as well as the economic loss due to flood damage. Recently, this model environment is being extended with a groundwater model to evaluate the effects of measures on the average groundwater table and available resources. Also, water allocation rules are addressed, while having environmental flow included as a minimum requirement for the environment. Economic functions are currently being updated as well. Recent development and examples will be shown and discussed, as well as open challenges.

The Modeling of the Processes of Assessment and Analysis of the Level of Socio-Ecological-Economic Development of a Region

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Pilko Andriy D.

2017-06-01

Full Text Available There presented results of the research of existing scientific and methodological, and theoretical approaches to management of the socio-ecological-economic development of a region with subsequent definition of priorities of the regional policy taking into account the concepts of security and development. Based on the study of literature sources and the analysis of the available statistical base, the problem of assessing the level of social, economic, ecological development, the level of sustainable development and the degree of harmonization of sustainable development of territorial systems of a region is formulated, and a possible method of its solution is suggested. The direction and nature of the cause-effect relationships between social tension and the levels of economic, environmental, social development and the level of sustainable development of a region are determined. There proposed a scheme to build models for assessing the effectiveness of levers for managing social, economic and environmental processes at the level of territorial systems in a region, taking into account the level of social tension and indicators of the investment component of development.

Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

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J. Grames

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy and water. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre et al., 2013; Viglione et al., 2014. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. In order to build this first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events, we transform an existing descriptive stochastic model into an optimal deterministic model. The intermediate step is to formulate and simulate a descriptive deterministic model. We develop a periodic water function to approximate the former discrete stochastic time series of rainfall events. Due to the non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function the long-term path of consumption and investment will be periodic.

Economic Analysis of Biological Invasions in Forests

Science.gov (United States)

Tomas P. Holmes; Julian Aukema; Jeffrey Englin; Robert G. Haight; Kent Kovacs; Brian Leung

2014-01-01

Biological invasions of native forests by nonnative pests result from complex stochastic processes that are difficult to predict. Although economic optimization models describe efficient controls across the stages of an invasion, the ability to calibrate such models is constrained by lack of information on pest population dynamics and consequent economic damages. Here...

Using whole disease modeling to inform resource allocation decisions: economic evaluation of a clinical guideline for colorectal cancer using a single model.

Science.gov (United States)

Tappenden, Paul; Chilcott, Jim; Brennan, Alan; Squires, Hazel; Glynne-Jones, Rob; Tappenden, Janine

2013-06-01

To assess the feasibility and value of simulating whole disease and treatment pathways within a single model to provide a common economic basis for informing resource allocation decisions. A patient-level simulation model was developed with the intention of being capable of evaluating multiple topics within National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence's colorectal cancer clinical guideline. The model simulates disease and treatment pathways from preclinical disease through to detection, diagnosis, adjuvant/neoadjuvant treatments, follow-up, curative/palliative treatments for metastases, supportive care, and eventual death. The model parameters were informed by meta-analyses, randomized trials, observational studies, health utility studies, audit data, costing sources, and expert opinion. Unobservable natural history parameters were calibrated against external data using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Economic analysis was undertaken using conventional cost-utility decision rules within each guideline topic and constrained maximization rules across multiple topics. Under usual processes for guideline development, piecewise economic modeling would have been used to evaluate between one and three topics. The Whole Disease Model was capable of evaluating 11 of 15 guideline topics, ranging from alternative diagnostic technologies through to treatments for metastatic disease. The constrained maximization analysis identified a configuration of colorectal services that is expected to maximize quality-adjusted life-year gains without exceeding current expenditure levels. This study indicates that Whole Disease Model development is feasible and can allow for the economic analysis of most interventions across a disease service within a consistent conceptual and mathematical infrastructure. This disease-level modeling approach may be of particular value in providing an economic basis to support other clinical guidelines. Copyright © 2013 International

Economic Drought Impact on Agriculture: analysis of all agricultural sectors affected

Science.gov (United States)

Gil, M.; Garrido, A.; Hernández-Mora, N.

2012-04-01

The analysis of drought impacts is essential to define efficient and sustainable management and mitigation. In this paper we present a detailed analysis of the impacts of the 2004-2008 drought in the agricultural sector in the Ebro river basin (Spain). An econometric model is applied in order to determine the magnitude of the economic loss attributable to water scarcity. Both the direct impacts of drought on agricultural productivity and the indirect impacts of drought on agricultural employment and agroindustry in the Ebro basin are evaluated. The econometric model measures losses in the economic value of irrigated and rainfed agricultural production, of agricultural employment and of Gross Value Added both from the agricultural sector and the agro-industrial sector. The explanatory variables include an index of water availability (reservoir storage levels for irrigated agriculture and accumulated rainfall for rainfed agriculture), a price index representative of the mix of crops grown in each region, and a time variable. The model allows for differentiating the impacts due to water scarcity from other sources of economic losses. Results show how the impacts diminish as we approach the macro-economic indicators from those directly dependent on water abstractions and precipitation. Sectors directly dependent on water are the most affected with identifiable economic losses resulting from the lack of water. From the management perspective implications of these findings are key to develop mitigation measures to reduce drought risk exposure. These results suggest that more open agricultural markets, and wider and more flexible procurement strategies of the agro-industry reduces the socio-economic exposure to drought cycles. This paper presents the results of research conducted under PREEMPT project (Policy relevant assessment of the socioeconomic effects of droughts and floods, ECHO - grant agreement # 070401/2010/579119/SUB/C4), which constitutes an effort to provide

Economic agglomerations and spatio-temporal cycles in a spatial growth model with capital transport cost

Science.gov (United States)

Juchem Neto, J. P.; Claeyssen, J. C. R.; Pôrto Júnior, S. S.

2018-03-01

In this paper we introduce capital transport cost in a unidimensional spatial Solow-Swan model of economic growth with capital-induced labor migration, considered in an unbounded domain. Proceeding with a stability analysis, we show that there is a critical value for the capital transport cost where the dynamic behavior of the economy changes, provided that the intensity of capital-induced labor migration is strong enough. On the one hand, if the capital transport cost is higher than this critical value, the spatially homogeneous equilibrium of coexistence of the model is stable, and the economy converges to this spatially homogeneous state in the long run; on the other hand, if transport cost is lower than this critical value, the equilibrium is unstable, and the economy may develop different spatio-temporal dynamics, including the formation of stable economic agglomerations and spatio-temporal economic cycles, depending on the other parameters in the model. Finally, numerical simulations support the results of the stability analysis, and illustrate the spatio-temporal dynamics generated by the model, suggesting that the economy as a whole benefits from the formation of economic agglomerations and cycles, with a higher capital transport cost reducing this gain.

Economic modeling for life extension decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farber, M.A.; Harrison, D.L.; Carlson, D.D.

1986-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives

A Reformulation of Normative Economics for Models with Endogenous Preferences

OpenAIRE

Vipul Bhatt; Masao Ogaki; Yuichi Yaguchi

2014-01-01

This paper proposes a framework to balance considerations of welfarism and virtue ethics in the normative analysis of economic models with endogenous preferences. We introduce the moral evaluation function (MEF), which ranks alternatives based purely on virtue ethics, and define the social objective function (SOF), which combines the Social Welfare Function (SWF) and the MEF. In a model of intergenerational altruism with endogenous time preference, using numerical simulations we show that max...

Energy Production and Regional Economic Growth in China: A More Comprehensive Analysis Using a Panel Model

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Yaobin Liu

2013-03-01

Full Text Available China has witnessed a fast economic growth in the recent two decades. However, the heavy energy exploitation seems to show a negative relation to regional economic growth. Thus, the issue is whether the energy production is a curse or blessing for the regional economic growth in China. The present study deploys a comprehensive approach to rigorously prove the validity of a proposed panel data model that includes a second generation panel unit root test and panel cointegration and a spatial panel model. The results from the second generation panel unit root test and panel cointegration allowing for cross-sectional dependences show the differenced series are stationary and there exists a cointegration relationship among these variables for all sub-regions. The results from the spatial panel data model support the conjecture of the spatial dependent and show that there is a “resource curse” only for the Western region and Central region in China.

The SocioEconomic analysis of repository siting (SEARS): Guide to data base preparation: Final draft

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamm, R.R.; Murdock, S.H.; Leistritz, F.L.; Kiel, B.; Parpia, B.

1984-11-01

This guide describes the data bases in the SocioEconomic Analysis of Repository Siting (SEARS) modeling system. This model is a user-interactive, computerized model for projecting the economic, demographic, public service, and fiscal impacts of repository siting. This guide provides a description of the data bases, sources of data, data formats, and preprocessing programs for adapting and implementing the SEARS system and is seen as an essential reference for technical users of the model. It should be used in conjunction with reports describing the model's features and characteristics. 95 refs., 3 tabs

JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2017-06-13

The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the local (usually state) level. First developed by NREL's researchers to model wind energy jobs and impacts, JEDI has been expanded to also estimate the economic impacts of biofuels, coal, conventional hydro, concentrating solar power, geothermal, marine and hydrokinetic power, natural gas, photovoltaics, and transmission lines. This fact sheet focuses on JEDI for wind energy projects and is revised with 2017 figures.

ANALYSIS OF THE ECOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC SITUATION IN THE NATIONAL ECONOMY OF THE REPUBLIC OF DAGESTAN

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A. G. Abdurakhmanova

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Aim. The article is devoted to consideration of issues of priority development of regions and transition to sustainable development from the point of view of international law. Great attention is paid to the analysis of priority development regions and the right to sustainable development. It is proposed to develop model of formation of priority development regions in the context of sustainable economic development the conclusions about the validity of consideration of cultural diversity as the fourth dimension of sustainable development.Methods. We used the following methods: historical and comparative analysis, system approach, analysis of the statistical and mathematical materials.Results. A model of the formation of priority development regions in the context of sustainable economic development, which defines the purpose and objectives of social reporting, legal and regulatory framework for its formation, principles and basic models for determining measures of social responsibility, explored the most promising industry in the region with the economic-geographical point of view.Conclusion. We identified socio-economic problems of sustainable development of the Republic of Dagestan and also offered important directions for sustainable development in the region.

Economic Models as Devices of Policy Change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Henriksen, Lasse Folke

2013-01-01

Can the emergence of a new policy model be a catalyst for a paradigm shift in the overall interpretative framework of how economic policy is conducted within a society? This paper claims that models are understudied as devices used by actors to induce policy change. This paper explores the role...... of models in Danish economic policy, where, from the 1970s onwards, executive public servants in this area have exclusively been specialists in model design. To understand changes in economic policy, this paper starts with a discussion of whether the notion of paradigm shift is adequate. It then examines...... the extent to which the performativity approach can help identify macroscopic changes in policy from seemingly microscopic changes in policy models. The concept of performativity is explored as a means of thinking about the constitution of agency directed at policy change. The paper brings this concept...

The BCD of response time analysis in experimental economics.

Science.gov (United States)

Spiliopoulos, Leonidas; Ortmann, Andreas

2018-01-01

For decisions in the wild, time is of the essence. Available decision time is often cut short through natural or artificial constraints, or is impinged upon by the opportunity cost of time. Experimental economists have only recently begun to conduct experiments with time constraints and to analyze response time (RT) data, in contrast to experimental psychologists. RT analysis has proven valuable for the identification of individual and strategic decision processes including identification of social preferences in the latter case, model comparison/selection, and the investigation of heuristics that combine speed and performance by exploiting environmental regularities. Here we focus on the benefits, challenges, and desiderata of RT analysis in strategic decision making. We argue that unlocking the potential of RT analysis requires the adoption of process-based models instead of outcome-based models, and discuss how RT in the wild can be captured by time-constrained experiments in the lab. We conclude that RT analysis holds considerable potential for experimental economics, deserves greater attention as a methodological tool, and promises important insights on strategic decision making in naturally occurring environments.

Energy-economic policy modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Sanstad, Alan H.

2018-01-01

Computational models based on economic principles and methods are powerful tools for understanding and analyzing problems in energy and the environment and for designing policies to address them. Among their other features, some current models of this type incorporate information on sustainable energy technologies and can be used to examine their potential role in addressing the problem of global climate change. The underlying principles and the characteristics of the models are summarized, and examples of this class of model and their applications are presented. Modeling epistemology and related issues are discussed, as well as critiques of the models. The paper concludes with remarks on the evolution of the models and possibilities for their continued development.

Evolutionary modelling of the macro-economic impacts of catastrophic flood events

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Safarzynska, K.E.; Brouwer, R.; Hofkes, M.

2013-01-01

This paper examines the possible contribution of evolutionary economics to macro-economic modelling of flood impacts to provide guidance for future economic risk modelling. Most macro-economic models start from a neoclassical economic perspective and focus on equilibrium outcomes, either in a static

Balance of the uranium market. Contribution to an economic analysis. Vol. 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ehsani, J.

1983-11-01

The second volume of this thesis on the economic analysis of the uranium market contrains all the technical decriptions concerning reactors and fuel cycle and also detailed results of the two models on uranium supply and demand [fr

ONTOLOGICAL MODEL OF STRATEGIC ECONOMIC SECURITY OF ENTERPRISE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. A. Zaporozhtseva

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Article explains the necessity the application of the ontological approach to modeling the strategic economic security in the formalization of the basic categories of domain company recognized its benefits. Among the advantages of the model distinguishes its versatility and ability to describe various aspects of strategic security - the system strategies and goals of the organization and business processes; possibility of its use at different levels of detail - from the top-level description of the basic categories of management, to design-level analytic applications; as well as the adaptability of the model, with depth on particular aspects determined by practical necessity and not regulated methodology. The model integrates various aspects of the concept of enterprise architecture and organizes conceptual apparatus. Ontological model easy to understand and adjust as business architects and specialists in designing systems of economic security and offers many categories of verbal representation of the domain of the enterprise. Proved the feasibility of using process-functional approach in providing strategic economic security, according to which the components of such a security company proposed as business processes, finance, staff and contractors. The article presents the author's ontological model of strategic economic security, including endangered sites, the presence of factors that threaten the security of the object and the subject of providing security. Further, it is proved that in the subjects of security impact on the object using the tools, measures and activities within the strategy formed the mechanism is implemented managerial decisions to strengthen the strategic economic security. The process of diagnosis, detection, identification of threats of economic security, and the development of enterprise development strategies, taking into account its level of economic security must be under the constant supervision of the process of

Antieigenvalue analysis for continuum mechanics, economics, and number theory

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Gustafson Karl

2016-01-01

Full Text Available My recent book Antieigenvalue Analysis, World-Scientific, 2012, presented the theory of antieigenvalues from its inception in 1966 up to 2010, and its applications within those forty-five years to Numerical Analysis, Wavelets, Statistics, Quantum Mechanics, Finance, and Optimization. Here I am able to offer three further areas of application: Continuum Mechanics, Economics, and Number Theory. In particular, the critical angle of repose in a continuum model of granular materials is shown to be exactly my matrix maximum turning angle of the stress tensor of the material. The important Sharpe ratio of the Capital Asset Pricing Model is now seen in terms of my antieigenvalue theory. Euclid’s Formula for Pythagorean triples becomes a special case of my operator trigonometry.

Economic Evaluation and Impact Analysis of SMART

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, K. H.; Kim, J. H.; Boo, K. D.; Park, S. B.

2010-07-01

The objective of this study is to analyze the economic value and contribution to the national economy of the SMART project. This study tries to evaluate three kinds of values of the project separately; national economy contribution, the financial cost-benefit analysis and intangible social benefit of the project. The research methods are Net Present Valuation (NPT) for the first analysis, Input-Output (IO) model for the second analysis and Contingent Valuation Method(CVM) for the last analysis. This study tries to answer for the following questions: (1) how much does the project affect on Korean national economy in area of construction, electricity generation and export? (2) what is the financial cost - benefit assessment of the SMART project which is of the most interest to the private sector constructing the reactor? (3) how much is the project's intangible social gains in that it brings Korea's scientific development in area of nuclear generation and improves Korea's global standing? Main Results of Research are (1) Domestic Construction and Electricity Generation of the 1st Reactor A. Contribution to the National Economy Production inducing effect by the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor amounts to 1,801 ∼2,059 billion won, value added inducing effect amounts to 789∼919 billion won, and employment inducing effect amounts to 11,015∼12, 856 men. B. Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment Financial cost - benefit of the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor turns out to be economically non-profitable from the point of view of private companies participating the project, by having economic loss over all scenarios of construction costs. C. Combining Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment and Contribution to the National Economy's Value-Added Combining financial cost - benefit and value added inducing effect of the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor turns out to be economically valid from the point of view of

Aspects of economic analysis in forestry enterprises

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M.Yu. Chik

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The subject of economic analysis from the point of view of philosophical sciences and works of domestic and foreign scientists is researched. The analysis of costs and production costs as the most important components of the economic analysis of forestry enterprises are distinguished. The basic tasks of the economic analysis at the enterprises of forestry are determined. The main objects of the study of indicators of the cost price of forestry products are singled out. The calculation of general indicators of expenditures at the State Enterprise «Zolochiv Forestry» is carried out and the corresponding general conclusions are made. The influence of factors on the change in the cost price of harvesting of forestry products in terms of expenditure items at the State Enterprise «Zolochiv Forestry» is calculated and the corresponding general conclusions are indicated. The main sources of reserves for reducing the costs of forestry products at the State Enterprise «Zolochiv Forestry» are proposed.

Homo Oeconomicus and Behavioral Economics

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Justyna Brzezicka

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Recent years have witnessed a growing interest in behavioral trends in both economic theory and practical applications. As a science with vast potential for explaining complex market behaviors, behavioral economics is drifting away from the classical model of homo oeconomicus deployed by mainstream economics. This paper discusses the significance and role of the homo oeconomicus model in light of behavioral economics. It analyzes the direction of changes affecting homo oeconomicus, examines the definition of anomalies within the context of behavioral economics and discusses the anomalous status of homo oeconomicus. The paper proposes a hypothesis that the attitude characterizing homo oeconomicus is unique and incidental. The presented interdisciplinary analysis relies on economics, behavioral economics, economic psychology, behavioral finance and the methodology of science to discuss the homo oeconomicus model. The paper reviews change trends in economics, which are largely propelled by advancements in behavioral economics. The key methodological tools deployed in this paper are theoretical analysis and a compilation of extensive research findings. The results were used to formulate new theories advocating the development of a modern approach to the homo oeconomicus model, recognizing its significance and the growing importance of behavioral economics.

Spatial Analysis on Future Housing Markets: Economic Development and Housing Implications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xin Liu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available A coupled projection method combining formal modelling and other statistical techniques was developed to delineate the relationship between economic and social drivers for net new housing allocations. Using the example of employment growth in Tyne and Wear, UK, until 2016, the empirical analysis yields housing projections at the macro- and microspatial levels (e.g., region to subregion to elected ward levels. The results have important implications for the strategic planning of locations for housing and employment, demonstrating both intuitively and quantitatively how local economic developments affect housing demand.

Probabilistic sensitivity analysis in health economics.

Science.gov (United States)

Baio, Gianluca; Dawid, A Philip

2015-12-01

Health economic evaluations have recently become an important part of the clinical and medical research process and have built upon more advanced statistical decision-theoretic foundations. In some contexts, it is officially required that uncertainty about both parameters and observable variables be properly taken into account, increasingly often by means of Bayesian methods. Among these, probabilistic sensitivity analysis has assumed a predominant role. The objective of this article is to review the problem of health economic assessment from the standpoint of Bayesian statistical decision theory with particular attention to the philosophy underlying the procedures for sensitivity analysis. © The Author(s) 2011.

Basin Economic Allocation Model (BEAM): An economic model of water use developed for the Aral Sea Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Riegels, Niels; Kromann, Mikkel; Karup Pedersen, Jesper; Lindgaard-Jørgensen, Palle; Sokolov, Vadim; Sorokin, Anatoly

2013-04-01

The water resources of the Aral Sea basin are under increasing pressure, particularly from the conflict over whether hydropower or irrigation water use should take priority. The purpose of the BEAM model is to explore the impact of changes to water allocation and investments in water management infrastructure on the overall welfare of the Aral Sea basin. The BEAM model estimates welfare changes associated with changes to how water is allocated between the five countries in the basin (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan; water use in Afghanistan is assumed to be fixed). Water is allocated according to economic optimization criteria; in other words, the BEAM model allocates water across time and space so that the economic welfare associated with water use is maximized. The model is programmed in GAMS. The model addresses the Aral Sea Basin as a whole - that is, the rivers Syr Darya, Amu Darya, Kashkadarya, and Zarafshan, as well as the Aral Sea. The model representation includes water resources, including 14 river sections, 6 terminal lakes, 28 reservoirs and 19 catchment runoff nodes, as well as land resources (i.e., irrigated croplands). The model covers 5 sectors: agriculture (crops: wheat, cotton, alfalfa, rice, fruit, vegetables and others), hydropower, nature, households and industry. The focus of the model is on welfare impacts associated with changes to water use in the agriculture and hydropower sectors. The model aims at addressing the following issues of relevance for economic management of water resources: • Physical efficiency (estimating how investments in irrigation efficiency affect economic welfare). • Economic efficiency (estimating how changes in how water is allocated affect welfare). • Equity (who will gain from changes in allocation of water from one sector to another and who will lose?). Stakeholders in the region have been involved in the development of the model, and about 10 national experts, including

Economics of Sustainable Development. Competitiveness and Economic Growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dorel AILENEI

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Economic growth is one of the most important issues of humanity. Both in national economies and world economy, recession and prosperity periods are regularly succeeding with different amplitudes. But beyond these fluctuations and their effects, the results are important: performance and economic growth. Because of the problematical issue of economic growth, the authors are trying to critically reflect on the economic growth concept and on its implications on the praxis area. Although there is a large literature about economic growth modeling, it is intriguing that there still are some serious obstacles for conceptualization and praxis. Only the simple fact that the economic growth process needs serious thinking on the time dimension is sufficient for understanding the real difficulties of this problematical issue. As for the economic growth praxis, a clear analysis of the interests system within an economy is needed. Without trying to find miraculous solutions for the economic growth issue, the authors suggest a clear and correct analysis of this important subject.

Mathematical model comparing of the multi-level economics systems

Science.gov (United States)

Brykalov, S. M.; Kryanev, A. V.

2017-12-01

The mathematical model (scheme) of a multi-level comparison of the economic system, characterized by the system of indices, is worked out. In the mathematical model of the multi-level comparison of the economic systems, the indicators of peer review and forecasting of the economic system under consideration can be used. The model can take into account the uncertainty in the estimated values of the parameters or expert estimations. The model uses the multi-criteria approach based on the Pareto solutions.

Economic analysis of nuclear energy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Han Myung; Lee, M.K.; Moon, K.H.; Kim, S.S.; Lim, C.Y.; Song, K.D.; Kim, H

2001-12-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate the contribution of nuclear energy to the energy use in the economical way, based on the factor survey performed on the internal and external environmental changes occurred recent years. Internal and external environmental changes are being occurred recent years involving with using nuclear energy. This study summarizes the recent environmental changes in nuclear energy such as sustainable development issues, climate change talks, Doha round and newly created electricity fund. This study also carried out the case studies on nuclear energy, based on the environmental analysis performed above. The case studies cover following topics: role of nuclear power in energy/environment/economy, estimation of environmental external cost in electric generation sector, economic comparison of hydrogen production, and inter-industrial analysis of nuclear power generation.

Economic analysis of nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Han Myung; Lee, M.K.; Moon, K.H.; Kim, S.S.; Lim, C.Y.; Song, K.D.; Kim, H.

2001-12-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate the contribution of nuclear energy to the energy use in the economical way, based on the factor survey performed on the internal and external environmental changes occurred recent years. Internal and external environmental changes are being occurred recent years involving with using nuclear energy. This study summarizes the recent environmental changes in nuclear energy such as sustainable development issues, climate change talks, Doha round and newly created electricity fund. This study also carried out the case studies on nuclear energy, based on the environmental analysis performed above. The case studies cover following topics: role of nuclear power in energy/environment/economy, estimation of environmental external cost in electric generation sector, economic comparison of hydrogen production, and inter-industrial analysis of nuclear power generation

Hydro-Economic based Model of Damage and Loss Analysis of Winongo River Flood

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Rifki Hardika

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Winongo River experienced considerably high flow that caused overflows along the downstream part of the river and some inundation at the surrounding area. The inundation has reached up to 1 m spread over the Tegalrejo Sub-district of Yogyakarta City and swept two houses. This paper analyses the damage and loss due to the flood by taking into account the hydraulics phenomena and the economic impact at the inundation area. A hydraulics model has been developed to study the flow characteristics during the flood of Winongo River, especially in the river reach in Tegalrejo Sub-district. The hazard-induced damages in the flooded area were identified and the economic impacts were studied. Several related software have been utilized to analyse the damage and loss of the disaster, including the HEC-RAS 5.0, ArcGIS, HEC-GeoRAS and InaSAFE. Through the integration of the characteristics of both flood phenomena and the economic factor, the damage and loss were then analysed and the Average Annual Damage (AAD of approximately IDR 88,750,000,000 was obtained.

Economic model predictive control theory, formulations and chemical process applications

CERN Document Server

Ellis, Matthew; Christofides, Panagiotis D

2017-01-01

This book presents general methods for the design of economic model predictive control (EMPC) systems for broad classes of nonlinear systems that address key theoretical and practical considerations including recursive feasibility, closed-loop stability, closed-loop performance, and computational efficiency. Specifically, the book proposes: Lyapunov-based EMPC methods for nonlinear systems; two-tier EMPC architectures that are highly computationally efficient; and EMPC schemes handling explicitly uncertainty, time-varying cost functions, time-delays and multiple-time-scale dynamics. The proposed methods employ a variety of tools ranging from nonlinear systems analysis, through Lyapunov-based control techniques to nonlinear dynamic optimization. The applicability and performance of the proposed methods are demonstrated through a number of chemical process examples. The book presents state-of-the-art methods for the design of economic model predictive control systems for chemical processes. In addition to being...

Economic and game-theoretical analysis of CO2 reduction agreements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tahvonen, O.

1994-01-01

The possibility of climate change and suggestions to stabilize CO 2 emissions have led to several different fields of research in resource and environmental economics. These include: 1. Studies on country specific and global greenhouse gas abatement costs. 2. Studies on global and country specific adaptation costs. 3. Game-theoretical analysis of greenhouse gas reduction agreements. 4. Studies on the relationship between CO 2 accumulation and natural resource utilization. 5. Models of climate change and intertemporal efficiency and equity. 6. Studies on emissions taxes and emissions permit markets for greenhouse gas abatement. The aim of this project is to contribute to the economic literature in fields 3, and 4

Analysis of Economic Factors Affecting Stock Market

OpenAIRE

Xie, Linyin

2010-01-01

This dissertation concentrates on analysis of economic factors affecting Chinese stock market through examining relationship between stock market index and economic factors. Six economic variables are examined: industrial production, money supply 1, money supply 2, exchange rate, long-term government bond yield and real estate total value. Stock market comprises fixed interest stocks and equities shares. In this dissertation, stock market is restricted to equity market. The stock price in thi...

Marital dissolution: an economic analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hunter, K A

1984-01-01

A longitudinal analysis of factors affecting marital dissolution in the United States is presented using data from the Coleman-Rossi Retrospective Life History. Factors considered include labor force participation of both spouses, wage growth, size of family unit, age at marriage, and educational status. The study is based on the economic analysis approach developed by Gary S. Becker and others.

Modelling the economic consequences of Marine Protected Areas using the BEMCOM model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hoff, A.; Andersen, J.L.; Christensen, Asbjørn

2013-01-01

the question ‘what’s best?’, i.e. finds the overall optimal effort allocation, from an economic point of view, between multiple harvesting fleets fishing under a subset of restrictions on catches and effort levels. The BEMCOM model is described and applied to the case of the Danish sandeel fishery in the North......This paper introduces and describes in detail the bioeconomic optimization model BEMCOM (BioEconomic Model to evaluate the COnsequences of Marine protected areas) that has been developed to assess the economic effects of introducing Marine Protected Areas (MPA) for fisheries. BEMCOM answers...... Sea. It has several times been suggested to close parts of the sandeel fishery in the North Sea out of concern for other species feeding on sandeel and/or spawning in the sandeel habitats. The economic effects of such closures have been assessed using BEMCOM. The results indicate that the model yields...

Is our economic model compatible with sustainable development?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Røpke, Inge

2003-01-01

The paper concerns the contradictions between sustainability and the present economic growth model. The discussion relates to the work of Jan Otto Andersson.......The paper concerns the contradictions between sustainability and the present economic growth model. The discussion relates to the work of Jan Otto Andersson....

An Attempt to Assess the Quantitative Impact of Institutions on Economic Growth and Economic Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Próchniak Mariusz

2014-10-01

Full Text Available This study aims at assessing to what extent institutional environment is responsible for worldwide differences in economic growth and economic development. To answer this question, we use an innovative approach based on a new concept of the institutions-augmented Solow model which is then estimated empirically using regression equations. The analysis covers 180 countries during the 1993-2012 period. The empirical analysis confirms a large positive impact of the quality of institutional environment on the level of economic development. The positive link has been evidenced for all five institutional indicators: two indices of economic freedom (Heritage Foundation and Fraser Institute, the governance indicator (World Bank, the democracy index (Freedom House, and the EBRD transition indicator for post-socialist countries. Differences in physical capital, human capital, and institutional environment explain about 70-75% of the worldwide differences in economic development. The institutions-augmented Solow model, however, performs slightly poorer in explaining differences in the rates of economic growth: only one institutional variable (index of economic freedom has a statistically significant impact on economic growth. In terms of originality, this paper extends the theoretical analysis of the Solow model by including institutions, on the one hand, and shows a comprehensive empirical analysis of the impact of various institutional indicators on both the level of development and the pace of economic growth, on the other. The results bring important policy implications.

The science of ecological economics: a content analysis of Ecological Economics, 1989-2004.

Science.gov (United States)

Luzadis, Valerie A; Castello, Leandro; Choi, Jaewon; Greenfield, Eric; Kim, Sung-kyun; Munsell, John; Nordman, Erik; Franco, Carol; Olowabi, Flavien

2010-01-01

The Ecological Economics journal is a primary source for inquiry on ecological economics and sustainability. To explore the scholarly pursuit of ecological economics, we conducted a content analysis of 200 randomly sampled research, survey, and methodological articles published in Ecological Economics during the 15-year period of 1989-2004. Results of the analysis were used to investigate facets of transdisciplinarity within the journal. A robust qualitative approach was used to gather and examine data to identify themes representing substantive content found within the span of sampled journal papers. The extent to which each theme was represented was counted as well as additional data, such as author discipline, year published, etc. Four main categories were revealed: (1) foundations (self-reflexive themes stemming from direct discussions about ecological economics); (2) human systems, represented by the themes of values, social indicators of well-being, intergenerational distribution, and equity; (3) biophysical systems, including themes, such as carrying capacity and scarcity, energy, and resource use, relating directly to the biophysical aspects of systems; and (4) policy and management encompassing themes of development, growth, trade, accounting, and valuation, as well as institutional structures and management. The results provide empirical evidence for discussing the future direction of ecological economic efforts.

Economic analysis of fusion breeders

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delene, J.G.

1985-01-01

This paper presents a study of the economic performance of Fission/Fusion Hybrid devices. This work takes fusion breeder cost estimates and applies methodology and cost factors used in the fission reactor programs to compare fusion breeders with Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactors (LMFBR). The results of the analysis indicate that the Hybrid will be in the same competitive range as proposed LMFBRs and have the potential to provide economically competitive power in a future of rising uranium prices. The sensitivity of the results to variations in key parameters is included

System model for analysis of the mirror fusion-fission reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bender, D.J.; Carlson, G.A.

1977-01-01

This report describes a system model for the mirror fusion-fission reactor. In this model we include a reactor description as well as analyses of capital cost and blanket fuel management. In addition, we provide an economic analysis evaluating the cost of producing the two hybrid products, fissile fuel and electricity. We also furnish the results of a limited parametric analysis of the modeled reactor, illustrating the technological and economic implications of varying some important reactor design parameters

Estimation of Continuous Time Models in Economics: an Overview

OpenAIRE

Clifford R. Wymer

2009-01-01

The dynamics of economic behaviour is often developed in theory as a continuous time system. Rigorous estimation and testing of such systems, and the analysis of some aspects of their properties, is of particular importance in distinguishing between competing hypotheses and the resulting models. The consequences for the international economy during the past eighteen months of failures in the financial sector, and particularly the banking sector, make it essential that the dynamics of financia...

End-of-Life Care Interventions: An Economic Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Pham, B; Krahn, M

2014-01-01

The annual cost of providing care for patients in their last year of life is estimated to account for approximately 9% of the Ontario health care budget. Access to integrated, comprehensive support and pain/symptom management appears to be inadequate and inequitable. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of end-of-life (EoL) care interventions included in the EoL care mega-analysis. Multiple sources were used, including systematic reviews, linked health administration databases, survey data, planning documents, expert input, and additional literature searches. We conducted a literature review of cost-effectiveness studies to inform the primary economic analysis. We conducted the primary economic analysis and budget impact analysis for an Ontario cohort of decedents and their families and included interventions pertaining to team-based models of care, patient care planning discussions, educational interventions for patients and caregivers, and supportive interventions for informal caregivers. The time horizon was the last year of life. Costs were in 2013 Canadian dollars. Effectiveness measures included days at home, percentage dying at home, and quality-adjusted life-days. We developed a Markov model; model inputs were obtained from a cohort of Ontario decedents assembled from Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences databases and published literature. In-home palliative team care was cost-effective; it increased the chance of dying at home by 10%, increased the average number of days at home (6 days) and quality-adjusted life-days (0.5 days), and it reduced costs by approximately $4,400 per patient. Expanding in-home palliative team care to those currently not receiving such services (approximately 45,000 per year, at an annual cost of $76-108 million) is likely to improve quality of life, reduce the use of acute care resources, and save $191-$385 million in health care costs. Results for the other interventions were uncertain. The cost-effectiveness analysis was

Application of PIP data in health economic models for market access

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nadine van Dongen

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Nadine van Dongen1, Mark JC Nuijten21Van Dongen Research Ltd, London, UK; 2Ars Accessus Medica, Amsterdam, The NetherlandsAbstract: Cost-effectiveness data from a state of the art health economic analysis should permit reliable, reproducible, and verifiable insights into the effectiveness of a drug and the possible savings that might be achieved relative to other drugs and/or treatments. The data for a model may come from a variety of sources and are subject to varying degrees of uncertainty. The reliability of the estimates depends on the choice of the data sources. Data sources for the variables being used in a model may be clinical trials, databases, medical records, and Delphi panels. A limitation of these data sources is that they often lack the input from the patient’s perspective. Patient Intelligence applications can provide data to be used in health economic models for any given situation regarding treatment of persons suffering from a disorder, disease, or complaint. The objective of this paper to explore the opportunity of integrating patient data generated by Patient Intelligence applications as an alternative data source for a Delphi panel and databases in health economic models.Keywords: effectiveness, Patient Intelligence, data source, Delphi panel

An assessment of the adaptability and validity of the SocioEconomic Analysis of Repository Siting (SEARS) Modeling System: Summary report: Draft report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murdock, S.H.; Leistritz, F.L.; Hamm, R.R.

1984-01-01

This report presents a summary of results of an assessment of the adaptability, sensitivity, and accuracy of the SEARS model. Specifically, after describing the methods used in the analysis, the report presents a discussion of each aspect of the model evaluation process. The adaptation of the system to three states (Louisiana, Wyoming, and Texas) is described in light of the three key aspects of model transfer: collection and preparation of input data, model code alterations, and resources required. The second major topic discussed is the sensitivity analysis, which consisted of evaluations of the model's ability to simulate the impact process and to show the expected the acuracy of the model. This analysis consisted of the projection of economic and demographic factors from 1970 to 1980, using data inputs for 1970, followed by comparisons of the model's projections to reported values from the 1980 Census and similar sources for regions, counties and cities in the three states. The analyses described in this report thus provide a comprehensive assessment of the SEARS methodology and one of the most complete and comprehensive assessments ever performed of the validity of a socioeconomic assessment model. 44 refs., 6 tabs

Models of the Economic Growth and their Relevance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicolae MOROIANU

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Until few years ago, the economic growth was something perfect normal, part of an era marked by the transformation speed. Normality itself has been transformed and we currently are influenced by other rules, unknown yet, which should answer the question: “How do we return to the economic growth?” The economic growth and the models aiming to solve this problem concern the economic history even since its beginnings. In this paper we would like to find out what is the relevance that the well-known macroeconomic models still have and which might be their applicability level in a framework created by a black swan event type.

A bio-economic application to the Cape Rock Lobster resource using a delay difference modelling approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E Roos

2004-06-01

Full Text Available In many species, like the Cape Rock Lobster (Jasus lalandii, the life cycles of males and females differ. This may motivate the use of two-sex models in a stock-assessment analysis. It is also true for this resource, that juveniles do not reach sexual maturity immediately. Therefore a delay-difference model is appropriate. In this study we follow a bio-economic approach and use a two-sex delay-difference model to determine a maximum economic yield strategy. Thus we determine an economic optimum steady state solution at which to harvest this resource subject to the biological constraints of the species.

International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2016-09-01

International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal energy projects. Building on a similar model for the United States, I-JEDI was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory under the U.S. government's Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to support partner countries in assessing economic impacts of LEDS actions in the energy sector.

Economic tour package model using heuristic

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, Syariza Abdul; Benjamin, Aida Mauziah; Bakar, Engku Muhammad Nazri Engku Abu

2014-07-01

A tour-package is a prearranged tour that includes products and services such as food, activities, accommodation, and transportation, which are sold at a single price. Since the competitiveness within tourism industry is very high, many of the tour agents try to provide attractive tour-packages in order to meet tourist satisfaction as much as possible. Some of the criteria that are considered by the tourist are the number of places to be visited and the cost of the tour-packages. Previous studies indicate that tourists tend to choose economical tour-packages and aiming to visit as many places as they can cover. Thus, this study proposed tour-package model using heuristic approach. The aim is to find economical tour-packages and at the same time to propose as many places as possible to be visited by tourist in a given geographical area particularly in Langkawi Island. The proposed model considers only one starting point where the tour starts and ends at an identified hotel. This study covers 31 most attractive places in Langkawi Island from various categories of tourist attractions. Besides, the allocation of period for lunch and dinner are included in the proposed itineraries where it covers 11 popular restaurants around Langkawi Island. In developing the itinerary, the proposed heuristic approach considers time window for each site (hotel/restaurant/place) so that it represents real world implementation. We present three itineraries with different time constraints (1-day, 2-day and 3-day tour-package). The aim of economic model is to minimize the tour-package cost as much as possible by considering entrance fee of each visited place. We compare the proposed model with our uneconomic model from our previous study. The uneconomic model has no limitation to the cost with the aim to maximize the number of places to be visited. Comparison between the uneconomic and economic itinerary has shown that the proposed model have successfully achieved the objective that

Economic Analysis of Factors Affecting Technical Efficiency of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Economic Analysis of Factors Affecting Technical Efficiency of Smallholders ... socio-economic characteristics which influence technical efficiency in maize production. ... Ministry of Agriculture and livestock, records, books, reports and internet.

Methods of economic analysis applied to fusion research. Fourth annual report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hazelrigg, G.A. Jr.

1980-01-01

The current study reported here has involved three separate tasks. The first task deals with the development of expected utility analysis techniques for economic evaluation of fusion research. A decision analytic model is developed for the incorporation of market uncertainties, as well as technological uncertainties in an economic evaluation of long-range energy research. The model is applied to the case of fusion research. The second task deals with the potential effects of long-range energy RD and D on fossil fuel prices. ECON's previous fossil fuel price model is extended to incorporate a dynamic demand function. The dynamic demand function supports price fluctuations such as those observed in the marketplace. The third task examines alternative uses of fusion technologies, specifically superconducting technologies and first wall materials to determine the potential for alternative, nonfusion use of these technologies. In both cases, numerous alternative uses are found

Quality assurance of the Teaching – Learning Process in the Financial Economic Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R.F. Creţu

2013-06-01

Full Text Available In the current context of economic development, human resources capable of long-life training and adaptable to economic change are essential elements of a model of growth based on competitiveness, efficiency and quality. In this paper we propose to identify strategies to improve the quality of the teaching learning process of Financial Economic Analysis in the Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies to the students in the first cycle of education - graduates cycle, the final year of study. Classroom observation is the qualitative method used to monitor the quality of the teaching learning process. As a complex process of instruments, classroom observation may take different forms and can play several roles.

Modeling Uncertainty and the Economics of Climate Change. Recommendations for Robust Energy Policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haurie, A.; Tavoni, M.; Van der Zwaan, B.C.C.

2011-01-01

This special issue is meant to gather front-edge research and innovative analysis in the modeling of uncertainty related to the economics of climate change. The focus is notably on advancements in probabilistic integrated assessment modeling and stochastic analysis of climate futures. The possibility to use non-probabilistic economic methods to treat uncertainty in global or regional dynamic climate change models is explored as well. Given the intimate link between climate change and the nature of mankind's energy production and consumption system, this special issue also proffers direct practical recommendations for energy decision making at the global, regional, and national levels. The special issue originated from a series of research tasks carried out under the PLANETS project, funded by the European Commission under its 7th Framework Programme and co-coordinated by the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN). This project, accomplished in 2010, had, as main focus, how to incorporate uncertainty when carrying out numerical analysis of climate and energy policies. A special PLANETS session was organized during the 2010 edition of the International Energy Workshop (IEW 2010, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm), which generated broad expert discussion on both methodology and policy-related issues. The recognition of the importance of these topics and the diversity of approaches undertaken, plus a concern over them becoming fragmented in the literature, constituted the motivation to edit this special issue gathering the generated material in one orchestrated publication. Several contributions, in the form of 12 papers, have been brought together with the aim of providing a comprehensive overview of some of the main recent developments in the modeling of uncertainty in the economics of climate change. We categorize these 12 articles in five distinct domains in hybrid integrated assessment EEE (Energy

Modeling Uncertainty and the Economics of Climate Change. Recommendations for Robust Energy Policy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haurie, A. [ORDECSYS, Geneva (Switzerland); Tavoni, M. [Princeton University, Princeton, NJ (United States); Van der Zwaan, B.C.C. [Policy Studies Department, Energy research Centre of the Netherlands ECN, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

2011-07-15

This special issue is meant to gather front-edge research and innovative analysis in the modeling of uncertainty related to the economics of climate change. The focus is notably on advancements in probabilistic integrated assessment modeling and stochastic analysis of climate futures. The possibility to use non-probabilistic economic methods to treat uncertainty in global or regional dynamic climate change models is explored as well. Given the intimate link between climate change and the nature of mankind's energy production and consumption system, this special issue also proffers direct practical recommendations for energy decision making at the global, regional, and national levels. The special issue originated from a series of research tasks carried out under the PLANETS project, funded by the European Commission under its 7th Framework Programme and co-coordinated by the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN). This project, accomplished in 2010, had, as main focus, how to incorporate uncertainty when carrying out numerical analysis of climate and energy policies. A special PLANETS session was organized during the 2010 edition of the International Energy Workshop (IEW 2010, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm), which generated broad expert discussion on both methodology and policy-related issues. The recognition of the importance of these topics and the diversity of approaches undertaken, plus a concern over them becoming fragmented in the literature, constituted the motivation to edit this special issue gathering the generated material in one orchestrated publication. Several contributions, in the form of 12 papers, have been brought together with the aim of providing a comprehensive overview of some of the main recent developments in the modeling of uncertainty in the economics of climate change. We categorize these 12 articles in five distinct domains in hybrid integrated assessment EEE (Energy

Gender Discrimination, Education and Economic Growth in a Generalized Uzawa-Lucas Two-Sector Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhang Wei-Bin

2014-06-01

Full Text Available This paper is mainly concerned with relationships between economic growth and gender discrimination in labor markets and education. Although discrimination in different fields has well been addresses and modelled in the economic literature, there are only a few growth models with endogenous wealth and human capital accumulation, gender time distribution between work, leisure and education under gender (positive or negative discrimination. The production and economic structures, human capital accumulation are based on the Uzawa-Lucas model, while the utility function and gender division of labor, leisure time and study time are based on the model by Zhang. The model takes account of learning by education in modeling human capital accumulation. We simulate the model to demonstrate the existence of equilibrium points and motion of the national economy. We also conduct a comparative dynamic analysis in regard to changes in discrimination in the education sector, women’s propensity to stay at home, women’s propensity to receive education, women’s knowledge utilization efficiency, and the propensity to save.

Economic Analysis of Long Working Hours (Japanese)

OpenAIRE

OHTAKE Fumio; OKUDAIRA Hiroko

2008-01-01

In this paper we set out the economic grounds for restrictions on long working hours and conduct an empirical analysis using surveys from the perspective of behavioral economics. The results of the analysis indicate that, on a year-on-year basis, if state of health improves, the probability of working more than 60 hours per week increases significantly, but that even when state of health deteriorates there is no decrease in the probability of working long hours. Moreover, among male managemen...

Modeling recent economic debates

Science.gov (United States)

Skiadas, Christos H.

The previous years' disaster in the stock markets all over the world and the resulting economic crisis lead to serious criticisms of the various models used. It was evident that large fluctuations and sudden losses may occur even in the case of a well organized and supervised context as it looks to be the European Union. In order to explain the economic systems, we explore models of interacting and conflicting populations. The populations are conflicting into the same environment (a Stock Market or a Group of Countries as the EU). Three models where introduced 1) the Lotka-Volterra 2) the Lanchester or the Richardson model and 3) a new model for two conflicting populations. These models assume immediate interaction between the two conflicting populations. This is usually not the case in a stock market or between countries as delays in the information process arise. The main rules present include mutual interaction between adopters, potential adopters, word-of-mouth communication and of course by taking into consideration the innovation diffusion process. In a previous paper (Skiadas, 2010 [9]) we had proposed and analyzed a model including mutual interaction with delays due to the innovation diffusion process. The model characteristics where expressed by third order terms providing four characteristic symmetric stationary points. In this paper we summarize the previous results and we analyze the case of a non-symmetric case where the leading part receives the information immediately while the second part receives the information following a delay mechanism due to the innovation diffusion process (the spread of information) which can be expressed by a third order term. In the later case the non-symmetric process leads to gains of the leading part while the second part oscillates between gains and losses during time.

Analysis of economic convergence through synthetic development indicators: the chilean case study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Víctor Fernando Figueroa Arcila

2003-01-01

Full Text Available This paper defends the use of convergence models to study the temporary evolution of the Chilean communes’ socioeconomic development. To do so, we will use an indicator made up of using multivariate analysis techniques. By means of regression models of transversal section and models of distributional dynamics we will outline, on the basis of the historic function of communal economies, the behaviour expected for those economies in future and, therefore, the tendencial evolution of Chilean territorial economic model.

Economic Analysis on Value Chain of Taxi Fleet with Battery-Swapping Mode Using Multiobjective Genetic Algorithm

OpenAIRE

Ning, Guobao; Zhen, Zijian; Wang, Peng; Li, Yang; Yin, Huaixian

2012-01-01

This paper presents an economic analysis model on value chain of taxi fleet with battery-swapping mode in a pilot city. In the model, economic benefits of charging-swapping station group, taxi company, and taxi driver in the region have been taken into consideration. Thus, the model is a multiobjective function and multiobjective genetic algorithm is used to solve this problem. According to the real data collected from the pilot city, the multiobjective genetic algorithm is tested as an effec...

Modeling and Economic Analysis of Power Grid Operations in a Water Constrained System

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Z.; Xia, Y.; Veselka, T.; Yan, E.; Betrie, G.; Qiu, F.

2016-12-01

The power sector is the largest water user in the United States. Depending on the cooling technology employed at a facility, steam-electric power stations withdrawal and consume large amounts of water for each megawatt hour of electricity generated. The amounts are dependent on many factors, including ambient air and water temperatures, cooling technology, etc. Water demands from most economic sectors are typically highest during summertime. For most systems, this coincides with peak electricity demand and consequently a high demand for thermal power plant cooling water. Supplies however are sometimes limited due to seasonal precipitation fluctuations including sporadic droughts that lead to water scarcity. When this occurs there is an impact on both unit commitments and the real-time dispatch. In this work, we model the cooling efficiency of several different types of thermal power generation technologies as a function of power output level and daily temperature profiles. Unit specific relationships are then integrated in a power grid operational model that minimizes total grid production cost while reliably meeting hourly loads. Grid operation is subject to power plant physical constraints, transmission limitations, water availability and environmental constraints such as power plant water exit temperature limits. The model is applied to a standard IEEE-118 bus system under various water availability scenarios. Results show that water availability has a significant impact on power grid economics.

Economic Development And Transfrontier Shipments Of Waste In Poland – Spatio-Temporal Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antczak Elżbieta

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to apply the spatio-temporal Environmental Kuznets Curve (SpEKC to test the relationship between economic growth and the amount of collected mixed municipal waste. The analysis was conducted at the level of sixty-six Polish sub-regions. The study contained selected environmental indicators. The dependent variable - the amount of municipal waste generated in kilograms per capita characterized the state of the environment. The GDP per capita in constant prices (as an explanatory variable presented the level of economic development of the sub-regions. In the empirical part of the research there were used spatial panel data models based on EKCs. It determined the levels of economic development, at which the amount of produced wastes has fallen or increased, depending on the wealth of the region. The application of different types of spatial weight matrices was an important element of this modelling. Data obtained the years 2005-2012. Models were estimated in the RCran package.

Economic Analysis: An Approach to Provide Basic Guidance for Conducting and Reviewing Economic Analysis within the Venezuelan Navy.

Science.gov (United States)

1986-06-01

la Armada (EMGAR)-- Staff of the Navy ------------------------- 18 b. Direction de Presupuesto Programac ion Ecomica (DIPPE)-Direction of Budget and...Economic Programming -------------------- 18 c. Cornite De Programacion y Presupuesto (CPP)-- Programming and Budget Committee-----------18 3. Major...development. This analysis is included in the annual budget. b. Direction de Presupuesto Programaclon Ecomica (DIPPE)- Direction of Budget and Economic

Thermodynamics, thermoeconomic and economic analysis of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The thermoeconomic analysis proposes the distribution of costs based on thermodynamic concepts, enabling the evaluation of reflection of the investment costs and fuel in the cost of products (steam and electricity). The economic analysis acts as a deciding factor for acceptance or project rejection. Keywords: Cogeneration ...

Economic analysis of energy supply and national economy on the basis of general equilibrium models. Applications of the input-output decomposition analysis and the Computable General Equilibrium models shown by the example of Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ko, Jong-Hwan.

1993-01-01

Firstly, this study investigaties the causes of sectoral growth and structural changes in the Korean economy. Secondly, it develops the borders of a consistent economic model in order to investigate simultaneously the different impacts of changes in energy and in the domestic economy. This is done any both the Input-Output-Decomposition analysis and a Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE Model). The CGE Model eliminates the disadvantages of the IO Model and allows the investigation of the interdegenerative of the various energy sectors with the economy. The Social Accounting Matrix serves as the data basis of the GCE Model. Simulated experiments have been comet out with the help of the GCE Model, indicating the likely impact of an oil price shock in the economy-sectorally and generally. (orig.) [de

System capacity and economic modeling computer tool for satellite mobile communications systems

Science.gov (United States)

Wiedeman, Robert A.; Wen, Doong; Mccracken, Albert G.

1988-01-01

A unique computer modeling tool that combines an engineering tool with a financial analysis program is described. The resulting combination yields a flexible economic model that can predict the cost effectiveness of various mobile systems. Cost modeling is necessary in order to ascertain if a given system with a finite satellite resource is capable of supporting itself financially and to determine what services can be supported. Personal computer techniques using Lotus 123 are used for the model in order to provide as universal an application as possible such that the model can be used and modified to fit many situations and conditions. The output of the engineering portion of the model consists of a channel capacity analysis and link calculations for several qualities of service using up to 16 types of earth terminal configurations. The outputs of the financial model are a revenue analysis, an income statement, and a cost model validation section.

Curriculum for the Twenty-First Century: Recent Advances in Economic Theory and Undergraduate Economics

Science.gov (United States)

Ferguson, William D.

2011-01-01

Undergraduate economics lags behind cutting-edge economic theory. The author briefly reviews six related advances that profoundly extend and deepen economic analysis: game-theoretic modeling, collective-action problems, information economics and contracting, social preference theory, conceptualizing rationality, and institutional theory. He offers…

Techno-economic analysis of corn stover fungal fermentation to ethanol

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meyer, Pimphan; Tews, Iva J.; Magnuson, Jon K.; Karagiosis, Sue A.; Jones, Susanne B.

2013-11-01

This techno-economic analysis assesses the process economics of ethanol production from lignocellulosic feedstock by fungi in order to identify promising opportunities and the research needed to achieve them. Based on literature derived data, four different ethanologen strains are considered in this study: native and recombinant Saccharomyces cerevisiae, the natural pentose-fermenting yeast, Pichia stipitis and the filamentous fungus Fusarium oxysporum. Organism performance and technology readiness are split into three groups: near-term (<5 years), mid-term (5-10 years) and long-term (>10 years) process deployment. Processes classified as near-term could reasonably be developed in this shorter time frame, as suggested by recent literature. Mid-term technology process models are based on lab-scale experimental data, and yields near the theoretical limit are used to estimate long-term technology goals. Further research and economic evaluation on the integrated production of chemicals and fuels in biorefineries are recommended.

Modeling the economic impact of medication adherence in type 2 diabetes: a theoretical approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David S Cobden

2010-08-01

Full Text Available David S Cobden1, Louis W Niessen2, Frans FH Rutten1, W Ken Redekop11Department of Health Policy and Management, Section of Health Economics – Medical Technology Assessment (HE-MTA, Erasmus MC, Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands; 2Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins University School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions, Baltimore, MD, USAAims: While strong correlations exist between medication adherence and health economic outcomes in type 2 diabetes, current economic analyses do not adequately consider them. We propose a new approach to incorporate adherence in cost-effectiveness analysis.Methods: We describe a theoretical approach to incorporating the effect of adherence when estimating the long-term costs and effectiveness of an antidiabetic medication. This approach was applied in a Markov model which includes common diabetic health states. We compared two treatments using hypothetical patient cohorts: injectable insulin (IDM and oral (OAD medications. Two analyses were performed, one which ignored adherence (analysis 1 and one which incorporated it (analysis 2. Results from the two analyses were then compared to explore the extent to which adherence may impact incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.Results: In both analyses, IDM was more costly and more effective than OAD. When adherence was ignored, IDM generated an incremental cost-effectiveness of $12,097 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY gained versus OAD. Incorporation of adherence resulted in a slightly higher ratio ($16,241/QALY. This increase was primarily due to better adherence with OAD than with IDM, and the higher direct medical costs for IDM.Conclusions: Incorporating medication adherence into economic analyses can meaningfully influence the estimated cost-effectiveness of type 2 diabetes treatments, and should therefore be ­considered in health care decision-making. Future work on the impact of adherence on health ­economic

Economic analysis of the global polio eradication initiative.

Science.gov (United States)

Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J; Pallansch, Mark A; Cochi, Stephen L; Wassilak, Steven G F; Linkins, Jennifer; Sutter, Roland W; Aylward, R Bruce; Thompson, Kimberly M

2010-12-16

The global polio eradication initiative (GPEI), which started in 1988, represents the single largest, internationally coordinated public health project to date. Completion remains within reach, with type 2 wild polioviruses apparently eradicated since 1999 and fewer than 2000 annual paralytic poliomyelitis cases of wild types 1 and 3 reported since then. This economic analysis of the GPEI reflects the status of the program as of February 2010, including full consideration of post-eradication policies. For the GPEI intervention, we consider the actual pre-eradication experience to date followed by two distinct potential future post-eradication vaccination policies. We estimate GPEI costs based on actual and projected expenditures and poliomyelitis incidence using reported numbers corrected for underreporting and model projections. For the comparator, which assumes only routine vaccination for polio historically and into the future (i.e., no GPEI), we estimate poliomyelitis incidence using a dynamic infection transmission model and costs based on numbers of vaccinated children. Cost-effectiveness ratios for the GPEI vs. only routine vaccination qualify as highly cost-effective based on standard criteria. We estimate incremental net benefits of the GPEI between 1988 and 2035 of approximately 40-50 billion dollars (2008 US dollars; 1988 net present values). Despite the high costs of achieving eradication in low-income countries, low-income countries account for approximately 85% of the total net benefits generated by the GPEI in the base case analysis. The total economic costs saved per prevented paralytic poliomyelitis case drive the incremental net benefits, which become positive even if we estimate the loss in productivity as a result of disability as below the recommended value of one year in average per-capita gross national income per disability-adjusted life year saved. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the finding of positive net benefits of the GPEI remains

Finding Resolution for the Responsible Transparency of Economic Models in Health and Medicine.

Science.gov (United States)

Padula, William V; McQueen, Robert Brett; Pronovost, Peter J

2017-11-01

The Second Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine recommendations for conduct, methodological practices, and reporting of cost-effectiveness analyses has a number of questions unanswered with respect to the implementation of transparent, open source code interface for economic models. The possibility of making economic model source code could be positive and progressive for the field; however, several unintended consequences of this system should be first considered before complete implementation of this model. First, there is the concern regarding intellectual property rights that modelers have to their analyses. Second, the open source code could make analyses more accessible to inexperienced modelers, leading to inaccurate or misinterpreted results. We propose several resolutions to these concerns. The field should establish a licensing system of open source code such that the model originators maintain control of the code use and grant permissions to other investigators who wish to use it. The field should also be more forthcoming towards the teaching of cost-effectiveness analysis in medical and health services education so that providers and other professionals are familiar with economic modeling and able to conduct analyses with open source code. These types of unintended consequences need to be fully considered before the field's preparedness to move forward into an era of model transparency with open source code.

Analysis of the economic impact of different Chinese climate policy options based on a CGE model incorporating endogenous technological change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Ke; Wang Can; Chen Jining

2009-01-01

Abatement cost is the main concern for climate change mitigation and the key factor for mitigation cost is technological change. This study established an integrated economic, energy, environmental, dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model representing endogenous technological change for China's climate change policy analysis. This study analyzed and compared the economic impact of different approaches to mitigation commitments as well as the potential role of technological change in the formulation of mitigation targets and commitments, taking into account China's climate policy-making needs based on the current international climate negotiation process. The results show that, absolute emission limits similar to the Kyoto Protocol will seriously impede the future economic development of China, while the impact of an 80% reduction in carbon intensity, forecast for 2050 based on the 2005 level, is relatively small. Technological change can promote economic growth, improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon intensity per unit of output through the substitution of production factors. Consequently it can reduce marginal abatement cost and related GDP loss by mitigation. At the same time it can increase mitigation potentials and extend the emission reduction amount, showing that consideration of the impact of technological change when deciding the emission reduction targets is necessary.

Item Analysis in Introductory Economics Testing.

Science.gov (United States)

Tinari, Frank D.

1979-01-01

Computerized analysis of multiple choice test items is explained. Examples of item analysis applications in the introductory economics course are discussed with respect to three objectives: to evaluate learning; to improve test items; and to help improve classroom instruction. Problems, costs and benefits of the procedures are identified. (JMD)

Economic analysis of nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Song, Ki Dong; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Kim, H. S.

1999-12-01

The objective of this study is to analyze how the economics of nuclear power generation are affected by the change in nuclear environmental factors and then, to suggest desirable policy directions to improve the efficiency of the use of nuclear energy resources in korea. This study focused to analyze the impact of the change in 3 major nuclear environmental factors in Korea on the economics of nuclear power generation. To do this, environmental external cost, nuclear R and fund, and carbon emission control according to UNFCCC were selected as the major factors. First of all, this study evaluated the impacts on the health and the environment of air pollutants emitted from coal power plant and nuclear power plant, two major electric power generating options in Korea. Then, the environmental external costs of those two options were estimated by transforming the health and environmental impact in to monetary values. To do this, AIRPACTS and 'Impacts of atmospheric release' model developed by IAEA were used. Secondly, the impact of nuclear R and D fund raised by the utility on the increment of nuclear power generating cost was evaluated. Then, the desirable size of the fund in Korea was suggested by taking into consideration the case of Japan. This study also analyzed the influences of the fund on the economics of nuclear power generation. Finally, the role of nuclear power under the carbon emission regulation was analyzed. To do this, the econometric model was developed and the impact of the regulation on the national economy was estimated. Further efforts were made to estimate the role by developing CGE model in order to improve the reliability of the results from the econometric model

Value function in economic growth model

Science.gov (United States)

Bagno, Alexander; Tarasyev, Alexandr A.; Tarasyev, Alexander M.

2017-11-01

Properties of the value function are examined in an infinite horizon optimal control problem with an unlimited integrand index appearing in the quality functional with a discount factor. Optimal control problems of such type describe solutions in models of economic growth. Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived to ensure that the value function satisfies the infinitesimal stability properties. It is proved that value function coincides with the minimax solution of the Hamilton-Jacobi equation. Description of the growth asymptotic behavior for the value function is provided for the logarithmic, power and exponential quality functionals and an example is given to illustrate construction of the value function in economic growth models.

Fundamental principles of conducting a surgery economic analysis study.

Science.gov (United States)

Kotsis, Sandra V; Chung, Kevin C

2010-02-01

The use of economic evaluation in surgery is scarce. Economic evaluation is used even less so in plastic surgery, in which health-related quality of life is of particular importance. This article, part of a tutorial series on evidence-based medicine, focuses on the fundamental principles of conducting a surgery economic analysis. The authors include the essential aspects of conducting a surgical cost-utility analysis by considering perspectives, costs, outcomes, and utilities. The authors also describe and give examples of how to conduct the analyses (including calculating quality-adjusted life-years and discounting), how to interpret the results, and how to report the results. Although economic analyses are not simple to conduct, a well-conducted one provides many rewards, such as recommending the adoption of a more effective treatment. For comparing and interpreting economic analysis publications, it is important that all studies use consistent methodology and report the results in a similar manner.

PLEXFIN a computer model for the economic assessment of nuclear power plant life extension. User's manual

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

The IAEA developed PLEXFIN, a computer model analysis tool aimed to assist decision makers in the assessment of the economic viability of a nuclear power plant life/licence extension. This user's manual was produced to facilitate the application of the PLEXFIN computer model. It is widely accepted in the industry that the operational life of a nuclear power plant is not limited to a pre-determined number of years, sometimes established on non-technical grounds, but by the capability of the plant to comply with the nuclear safety and technical requirements in a cost effective manner. The decision to extend the license/life of a nuclear power plant involves a number of political, technical and economic issues. The economic viability is a cornerstone of the decision-making process. In a liberalized electricity market, the economics to justify a nuclear power plant life/license extension decision requires a more complex evaluation. This user's manual was elaborated in the framework of the IAEA's programmes on Continuous process improvement of NPP operating performance, and on Models for analysis and capacity building for sustainable energy development, with the support of four consultants meetings

Techno-economic and environmental analysis of power generation expansion plan of Ghana

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Awopone, Albert K.; Zobaa, Ahmed F.; Banuenumah, Walter

2017-01-01

This paper examines the current electrical generation expansion plan of Ghana and compares it with proposed expansion pathways with higher penetration of Renewable Energy Technologies. An adaptation of Schwartz's Scenario Methodology was used to develop the scenarios which were then analysed using the Long-range Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model. Each of the scenarios represents policy options for generation expansion in Ghana up to 2040. Energy, economic and environmental analysis of the three alternative scenarios compared to the base scenarios was undertaken. Sensitivity results show that, if the country were to follow the generation expansion path described in the renewable energy scenarios, it could reap economic benefits of 0.5–13.23% depending on the developments in fuel prices and renewable technology capital cost. The analysis further quantifies benefits to be derived from a reduction in Greenhouse gases of the scenarios. Policy implications for the generation system of Ghana based on the results are also discussed. - Highlights: • LEAP demand projection for Ghana from 2010 to 2014. • Develop scenarios using an adaptation of Schwartz’s scenario approach. • Develop LEAP model for generation scenario. • Each scenario represents possible generation expansion strategy. • High renewable energy systems penetration results in net economic and environmental benefits.

Economic management model of nuclear power plant research institute

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schultz, O.

1993-01-01

Brief information about the development of economic management and processing of economic information in the Nuclear Power Plants Research Institute Trnava is given in the paper. The existing economic management model of the Institute impacts positively the fulfillment of economic indicators. When applying this model, activities of individual divisions are emphasized and presentation of the Institute as a global professional capacity is suppressed. With regards to this influence, it will be necessary to look for such system elements that will impact the integrity of the Institute in the future period positively

An approach for economic analysis of intermodal transportation.

Science.gov (United States)

Sahin, Bahri; Yilmaz, Huseyin; Ust, Yasin; Guneri, Ali Fuat; Gulsun, Bahadir; Turan, Eda

2014-01-01

A different intermodal transportation model based on cost analysis considering technical, economical, and operational parameters is presented. The model consists of such intermodal modes as sea-road, sea-railway, road-railway, and multimode of sea-road-railway. A case study of cargo transportation has been carried out by using the suggested model. Then, the single road transportation mode has been compared to intermodal modes in terms of transportation costs. This comparison takes into account the external costs of intermodal transportation. The research reveals that, in the short distance transportation, single transportation modes always tend to be advantageous. As the transportation distance gets longer, intermodal transportation advantages begin to be effective on the costs. In addition, the proposed method in this study leads to determining the fleet size and capacity for transportation and the appropriate transportation mode.

An Approach for Economic Analysis of Intermodal Transportation

Science.gov (United States)

Sahin, Bahri; Ust, Yasin; Guneri, Ali Fuat; Gulsun, Bahadir; Turan, Eda

2014-01-01

A different intermodal transportation model based on cost analysis considering technical, economical, and operational parameters is presented. The model consists of such intermodal modes as sea-road, sea-railway, road-railway, and multimode of sea-road-railway. A case study of cargo transportation has been carried out by using the suggested model. Then, the single road transportation mode has been compared to intermodal modes in terms of transportation costs. This comparison takes into account the external costs of intermodal transportation. The research reveals that, in the short distance transportation, single transportation modes always tend to be advantageous. As the transportation distance gets longer, intermodal transportation advantages begin to be effective on the costs. In addition, the proposed method in this study leads to determining the fleet size and capacity for transportation and the appropriate transportation mode. PMID:25152919

Net energy analysis in a Ramsey–Hotelling growth model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Macías, Arturo; Matilla-García, Mariano

2015-01-01

This article presents a dynamic growth model with energy as an input in the production function. The available stock of energy resources is ordered by a quality parameter based on energy accounting: the “Energy Return on Energy Invested” (EROI). In our knowledge this is the first paper where EROI fits in a neoclassical growth model (with individual utility maximization and market equilibrium), establishing the economic use of “net energy analysis” on a firmer theoretical ground. All necessary concepts to link neoclassical economics and EROI are discussed before their use in the model, and a comparative static analysis of the steady states of a simplified version of the model is presented. - Highlights: • A neoclassical growth model with EROI (“Energy Return on Energy Invested”) is shown • All concepts linking neoclassical economics and net energy analysis are discussed • Any EROI decline can be compensated increasing gross activity in the energy sector. • The economic impact of EROI depends on some non-energy cost in the energy sector. • Comparative steady-state statics for different EROI levels is performed and discussed. • Policy implications are suggested.

Development of the financial model for analyses on economic performances of nuclear facilities and examples of its applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mankin, Shuichi; Ueno, Seiichi; Kimura, Shigeru; Yuasa, Tadao.

1988-10-01

On the assumption of the commercialization stage of technologies, the analysis on performances in financial operation based on simulation studies is one of important study subjects in the field of the system analysis and economic assessments of nuclear technologies. However, economic assessments on financial performances of such complex industries as nuclear power based on nuclear fuel cycle industries, or as electric utilities composed of hydro, fossil, nuclear power stations are complicated, and the adoption of conventional financial model is insufficient in the case of nuclear technologies which have such special financial process as decommissioning. We, therefore, develop the computer simulation model that can analyze financial performances of nuclear facilities. In this report, the derivation of equations and outlines of the model are explained. Additionally, examples of hypothetical financial simulation studies on a coal-gasoline plant, nuclear waste industries, and analysis on economic perspectives of small size nuclear reactors for electric utilities are indicated. (author)

ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF PEANUT PRODUCTION IN BULGARIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nelly BENCHEVA

2008-11-01

Full Text Available Peanut is not listed as one of the major crops in the Bulgarian agricultural sector, but its economic and fi nancial viability is promising, but unknown. We use enterprise budgets, capital budgeting techniques, risk analysis and logistic regression models to examine the fi nancial and economic structure of peanut farms and to evaluate the factors infl uencing short and long-term profi tability. The results show that peanut production is a profi table venture for most peanut farmers in Bulgaria. Long-run analyses show that peanut production may be economically feasible and producers engaged in production for a period of seven years, and at a discount rate of 13%, may generate internal rates of return (IRR that vary from -20.57% to 67.39%. About 70% of the farms studied had IRRs greater than the discount rate. Sensitivity analyses show that profi tability of peanut production was infl uenced by yield and variable costs. There were risks at the village level associated with peanut production.

Health economic evaluation: important principles and methodology.

Science.gov (United States)

Rudmik, Luke; Drummond, Michael

2013-06-01

To discuss health economic evaluation and improve the understanding of common methodology. This article discusses the methodology for the following types of economic evaluations: cost-minimization, cost-effectiveness, cost-utility, cost-benefit, and economic modeling. Topics include health-state utility measures, the quality-adjusted life year (QALY), uncertainty analysis, discounting, decision tree analysis, and Markov modeling. Economic evaluation is the comparative analysis of alternative courses of action in terms of both their costs and consequences. With increasing health care expenditure and limited resources, it is important for physicians to consider the economic impact of their interventions. Understanding common methodology involved in health economic evaluation will improve critical appraisal of the literature and optimize future economic evaluations. Copyright © 2012 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Projection of the Russian economic development in the framework of the optimal control model by investments in fixed assets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander Mikhajlovich Tarasyev

2014-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we develop an economic growth model taking into account two factors of production: fixed capital and labor force, to study the dynamics of GDP growth. The dependence of the output of these factors is described by a production function of the exponential type. Within the framework of the optimal control theory, the optimization problem for investment levels is being solved to maximize the integral index of consumption. We study the qualitative properties of optimal trajectories as solutions of the Hamiltonian systems arising in Pontryagin’s maximum principle. The sensitivity analysis of the equilibrium solutions of the economic system is implemented with respect to the elasticity coefficients of the production function, the depreciation rate of the capital, and the discount factor, and growth trends are indicated. The econometric analysis of the model parameters is provided basing on real data for the Russian economy. In accordance with the results of the regression analysis, the projection of economic development is constructed in conditions of the applicability of the economic growth model.

Catastrophic loss risks: An economic and legal analysis, and a model state statute

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyer, M.B.

1984-01-01

Catastrophic loss risk producing facilities or activities are defined as those human enterprises which are theoretically capable of producing some credible event which entails extremely large losses of human life, health, or property. Two examples of catastrophic loss risk producing facilities are examined, commercial nuclear power plants and LNG terminals. These two types of facilities appear to produce a type of externality in that they impose uncompensated loss risk costs on neighbors. Further, these two types of facilities may be quite dependent upon the subsidies implicit in these externalities for their continued economic operation. A model state statute is proposed which would use insurance premiums as an unbiased source of probability and outcome estimates in order to eliminate this externality and the resulting subsidy, and as a way of improving the present situation within certain economic limits

Survival modeling for the estimation of transition probabilities in model-based economic evaluations in the absence of individual patient data: a tutorial.

Science.gov (United States)

Diaby, Vakaramoko; Adunlin, Georges; Montero, Alberto J

2014-02-01

Survival modeling techniques are increasingly being used as part of decision modeling for health economic evaluations. As many models are available, it is imperative for interested readers to know about the steps in selecting and using the most suitable ones. The objective of this paper is to propose a tutorial for the application of appropriate survival modeling techniques to estimate transition probabilities, for use in model-based economic evaluations, in the absence of individual patient data (IPD). An illustration of the use of the tutorial is provided based on the final progression-free survival (PFS) analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial in metastatic breast cancer (mBC). An algorithm was adopted from Guyot and colleagues, and was then run in the statistical package R to reconstruct IPD, based on the final PFS analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial. It should be emphasized that the reconstructed IPD represent an approximation of the original data. Afterwards, we fitted parametric models to the reconstructed IPD in the statistical package Stata. Both statistical and graphical tests were conducted to verify the relative and absolute validity of the findings. Finally, the equations for transition probabilities were derived using the general equation for transition probabilities used in model-based economic evaluations, and the parameters were estimated from fitted distributions. The results of the application of the tutorial suggest that the log-logistic model best fits the reconstructed data from the latest published Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves of the BOLERO-2 trial. Results from the regression analyses were confirmed graphically. An equation for transition probabilities was obtained for each arm of the BOLERO-2 trial. In this paper, a tutorial was proposed and used to estimate the transition probabilities for model-based economic evaluation, based on the results of the final PFS analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial in mBC. The results of our study can serve as a basis for any model

Pet Overpopulation: An Economic Analysis

OpenAIRE

Stephen Coate; Brian Knight

2009-01-01

This paper considers the problem of pet overpopulation. It develops a tractable dynamic model whose positive predictions square well with key features of the current U.S. market for pets. The model is used to understand, from a welfare economic perspective, the sense in which there is \\overpopulation" of pets and the underlying causes of the problem. The paper also employs the model to consider what policies might be implemented to deal with the problem. A calibrated example is developed to i...

Economic Well-Being and Poverty Among the Elderly : An Analysis Based on a Collective Consumption Model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cherchye, L.J.H.; de Rock, B.; Vermeulen, F.M.P.

2008-01-01

We apply the collective consumption model of Browning, Chiappori and Lew- bel (2006) to analyse economic well-being and poverty among the elderly. The model focuses on individual preferences, a consumption technology that captures the economies of scale of living in a couple, and a sharing rule that

Moving forward socio-economically focused models of deforestation

OpenAIRE

DEZÉCACHE CAMILLE; SALLES JEAN-MICHEL; VIEILLEDENT GHISLAIN; HÉRAULT BRUNO

2017-01-01

While high resolution spatial variables contribute to a good fit of spatially-explicit deforestation models, socio-economic processes are often beyond the scope of these models. Such a low level of interest in the socio-economic dimension of deforestation limits the relevancy of these models for decision making and may be the cause of their failure to accurately predict observed deforestation trends in the medium term. This study aims to propose a flexible methodology for taking into account ...

A comparison of economic evaluation models as applied to geothermal energy technology

Science.gov (United States)

Ziman, G. M.; Rosenberg, L. S.

1983-01-01

Several cost estimation and financial cash flow models have been applied to a series of geothermal case studies. In order to draw conclusions about relative performance and applicability of these models to geothermal projects, the consistency of results was assessed. The model outputs of principal interest in this study were net present value, internal rate of return, or levelized breakeven price. The models used were VENVAL, a venture analysis model; the Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model (GPC Model); the Alternative Power Systems Economic Analysis Model (APSEAM); the Geothermal Loan Guarantee Cash Flow Model (GCFM); and the GEOCOST and GEOCITY geothermal models. The case studies to which the models were applied include a geothermal reservoir at Heber, CA; a geothermal eletric power plant to be located at the Heber site; an alcohol fuels production facility to be built at Raft River, ID; and a direct-use, district heating system in Susanville, CA.

Emergy-Based Regional Socio-Economic Metabolism Analysis: An Application of Data Envelopment Analysis and Decomposition Analysis

OpenAIRE

Zilong Zhang; Xingpeng Chen; Peter Heck

2014-01-01

Integrated analysis on socio-economic metabolism could provide a basis for understanding and optimizing regional sustainability. The paper conducted socio-economic metabolism analysis by means of the emergy accounting method coupled with data envelopment analysis and decomposition analysis techniques to assess the sustainability of Qingyang city and its eight sub-region system, as well as to identify the major driving factors of performance change during 2000–2007, to serve as the basis for f...

Socio-economic development and emotion-health connection revisited: a multilevel modeling analysis using data from 162 counties in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Zonghuo; Wang, Fei

2016-03-12

Substantial research has shown that emotions play a critical role in physical health. However, most of these studies were conducted in industrialized countries, and it is still an open question whether the emotion-health connection is a "first-world problem". In the current study, we examined socio-economic development's influence on emotion-health connection by performing multilevel-modeling analysis in a dataset of 33,600 individuals from 162 counties in China. Results showed that both positive emotions and negative emotions predicted level of physical health and regional Gross Domestic Product Per Capita (GDPPC) had some impact on the association between emotion and health through accessibility of medical resources and educational status. But these impacts were suppressed, and the total effects of GDPPC on emotion-health connections were not significant. These results support the universality of emotion-health connection across levels of GDPPC and provide new insight into how socio-economic development might affect these connections.

Economic Benefits, Conservation and Wildlife Tourism

OpenAIRE

Tisdell, Clement A.

2012-01-01

Different economic methods are being used to estimate the economic benefits generated by nature (wildlife) tourism. The most prominent of these are economic valuation analysis and economic impact analysis. These methods often provide divergent and conflicting estimates of the economic benefits obtained from wildlife tourism, as is demonstrated in this article by the use of a microeconomic model. Tourism Research Australia has estimated the economic benefits to Australia of nature tourism base...

Techno-Economic Analysis of Biofuels Production Based on Gasification

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Swanson, R. M.; Platon, A.; Satrio, J. A.; Brown, R. C.; Hsu, D. D.

2010-11-01

This study compares capital and production costs of two biomass-to-liquid production plants based on gasification. The first biorefinery scenario is an oxygen-fed, low-temperature (870?C), non-slagging, fluidized bed gasifier. The second scenario is an oxygen-fed, high-temperature (1,300?C), slagging, entrained flow gasifier. Both are followed by catalytic Fischer-Tropsch synthesis and hydroprocessing to naphtha-range (gasoline blend stock) and distillate-range (diesel blend stock) liquid fractions. Process modeling software (Aspen Plus) is utilized to organize the mass and energy streams and cost estimation software is used to generate equipment costs. Economic analysis is performed to estimate the capital investment and operating costs. Results show that the total capital investment required for nth plant scenarios is $610 million and $500 million for high-temperature and low-temperature scenarios, respectively. Product value (PV) for the high-temperature and low-temperature scenarios is estimated to be $4.30 and $4.80 per gallon of gasoline equivalent (GGE), respectively, based on a feedstock cost of $75 per dry short ton. Sensitivity analysis is also performed on process and economic parameters. This analysis shows that total capital investment and feedstock cost are among the most influential parameters affecting the PV.

Proof of Economic Viability of Blended Learning Business Models

Science.gov (United States)

Druhmann, Carsten; Hohenberg, Gregor

2014-01-01

The discussion on economically sustainable business models with respect to information technology is lacking in many aspects of proven approaches. In the following contribution the economic viability is valued based on a procedural model for design and evaluation of e-learning business models in the form of a case study. As a case study object a…

Current challenges in health economic modeling of cancer therapies: a research inquiry.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Jeffrey D; Foley, Kathleen A; Russell, Mason W

2014-05-01

The demand for economic models that evaluate cancer treatments is increasing, as healthcare decision makers struggle for ways to manage their budgets while providing the best care possible to patients with cancer. Yet, after nearly 2 decades of cultivating and refining techniques for modeling the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of cancer therapies, serious methodologic and policy challenges have emerged that question the adequacy of economic modeling as a sound decision-making tool in oncology. We sought to explore some of the contentious issues associated with the development and use of oncology economic models as informative tools in current healthcare decision-making. Our objective was to draw attention to these complex pharmacoeconomic concerns and to promote discussion within the oncology and health economics research communities. Using our combined expertise in health economics research and economic modeling, we structured our inquiry around the following 4 questions: (1) Are economic models adequately addressing questions relevant to oncology decision makers; (2) What are the methodologic limitations of oncology economic models; (3) What guidelines are followed for developing oncology economic models; and (4) Is the evolution of oncology economic modeling keeping pace with treatment innovation? Within the context of each of these questions, we discuss issues related to the technical limitations of oncology modeling, the availability of adequate data for developing models, and the problems with how modeling analyses and results are presented and interpreted. There is general acceptance that economic models are good, essential tools for decision-making, but the practice of oncology and its rapidly evolving technologies present unique challenges that make assessing and demonstrating value especially complex. There is wide latitude for improvement in oncology modeling methodologies and how model results are presented and interpreted. Complex technical and

An analysis of the influence of framework aspects on the study design of health economic modeling evaluations.

Science.gov (United States)

Gurtner, Sebastian

2013-04-01

Research and practical guidelines have many implications for how to structure a health economic study. A major focus in recent decades has been the quality of health economic research. In practice, the factors influencing a study design are not limited to the quest for quality. Moreover, the framework of the study is important. This research addresses three major questions related to these framework aspects. First, we want to know whether the design of health economic studies has changed over time. Second, we want to know how the subject of a study, whether it is a process or product innovation, influences the parameters of the study design. Third, one of the most important questions we will answer is whether and how the study's source of funding has an impact on the design of the research. To answer these questions, a total of 234 health economic studies were analyzed using a correspondence analysis and a logistic regression analysis. All three categories of framework factors have an influence on the aspects of the study design. Health economic studies have evolved over time, leading to the use of more advanced methods like complex sensitivity analyses. Additionally, the patient's point of view has increased in importance. The evaluation of product innovations has focused more on utility concepts. On the other hand, the source of funding may influence only a few aspects of the study design, such as the use of evaluation methods, the source of data, and the use of certain utility measures. The most important trends in health care, such as the emphasis on the patients' point of view, become increasingly established in health economic evaluations with the passage of time. Although methodological challenges remain, modern information and communication technologies provide a basis for increasing the complexity and quality of health economic studies if used frequently.

Innovation, Decentralization, and Planning in a Multi-Region Model of Schumpeterian Economic Growth

OpenAIRE

Batabyal, Amit; Nijkamp, Peter

2014-01-01

We study innovation and the resulting Schumpeterian economic growth that this innovation gives rise to in a model with N heterogeneous regions. For each region i where i=1,...,N, our analysis leads to five findings. First, we define the balanced growth path (BGP) allocations and the equilibrium of interest. Second, we stipulate the form of the innovation possibilities frontier that is consistent with balanced economic growth. Third, we derive the growth rate of the ith region in the decentral...

USING THE ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODELS FOR DETERMINING THE MARKET CAPACITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maiya Golovanova

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The subject matter of the article is economic and mathematical forecasting models of the market capacity based on the system of influential factors. The goal is to systematize and substantiate theoretical and methodological approaches to forecasting the market capacity in the conditions of the current unstable state of the economy. The following tasks are solved: the factors that influence on the development and amount of the market capacity are completely systematized; peculiarities, advantages and disadvantages of applying available economic and mathematical forecasting models of the market capacity are considered; the necessity for taking into account the structural changes in a number of consumers by age groups is emphasized; the features of the influence of the consumption of luxury goods and goods of prime necessity were is revealed taking into account the return on the change in the market capacity. The methods used are – the system analysis, the factor analysis, the regression and correlation analysis, the methods of cumulative curves. The following results are obtained –the principles of building economic and mathematical forecasting models of the market capacity are considered; the factors that influence on the market capacity at micro and macro level and have a random or systematic nature of the impact were systematized; advantages, disadvantages and peculiarities of multi-factor and single-factor models of the market capacity, in particular, cumulative curves are revealed;  compulsory registration of demographic factors (changing the structure of age groups in time in multi-factor models is suggested; the alternative use of cumulative curves of demand on the groups of luxury goods and goods of prime necessity depending on income is shown. Conclusions. Taking into consideration structural changes in a number of consumers in time, the features of consumption of luxury goods and goods of prime necessity using the factors of the

Military construction program economic analysis manual: Sample economic analyses: Hazardous Waste Remedial Actions Program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1987-12-01

This manual enables the US Air Force to comprehensively and systematically analyze alternative approaches to meeting its military construction requirements. The manual includes step-by-step procedures for completing economic analyses for military construction projects, beginning with determining if an analysis is necessary. Instructions and a checklist of the tasks involved for each step are provided; and examples of calculations and illustrations of completed forms are included. The manual explains the major tasks of an economic analysis, including identifying the problem, selecting realistic alternatives for solving it, formulating appropriate assumptions, determining the costs and benefits of the alternatives, comparing the alternatives, testing the sensitivity of major uncertainties, and ranking the alternatives. Appendixes are included that contain data, indexes, and worksheets to aid in performing the economic analyses. For reference, Volume 2 contains sample economic analyses that illustrate how each form is filled out and that include a complete example of the documentation required

ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF THE BUILDINGS REHABILITATION SOLUTIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

STAN IVAN F.E.

2016-07-01

Full Text Available The paper includes a simplified economical and financial analysis of the buildings rehabilitation solutions, for heating and lighting. The most important economic and financial indicators analyzed and determined are: economic return on investment and payback period of investment in dynamic form, net present value, and internal rate of return economic residual value of the investment on thermal insulation, building maintenance costs, energy costs. In order to reduce the electricity consumption: the methods consisted in replacing inefficient lighting with some efficient energy and for heat consumption: the proposed solution was building rehabilitation (exterior wall insulation, floor insulation board. The analysis consists in determining the economical and financial indicators before and after the building rehabilitation. The 3 rooms apartment is located in Craiova town, (wind zone IV, 2nd floor, orientation is S.

Performance modeling and techno-economic analysis of a modular concentrated solar power tower with latent heat storage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rea, Jonathan E.; Oshman, Christopher J.; Olsen, Michele L.; Hardin, Corey L.; Glatzmaier, Greg C.; Siegel, Nathan P.; Parilla, Philip A.; Ginley, David S.; Toberer, Eric S.

2018-05-01

In this paper, we present performance simulations and techno-economic analysis of a modular dispatchable solar power tower. Using a heliostat field and power block three orders of magnitude smaller than conventional solar power towers, our unique configuration locates thermal storage and a power block directly on a tower receiver. To make the system dispatchable, a valved thermosyphon controls heat flow from a latent heat thermal storage tank to a Stirling engine. The modular design results in minimal balance of system costs and enables high deployment rates with a rapid realization of economies of scale. In this new analysis, we combine performance simulations with techno-economic analysis to evaluate levelized cost of electricity, and find that the system has potential for cost-competitiveness with natural gas peaking plants and alternative dispatchable renewables.

Concept formation and indeterminacy in the LSP of Economics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Toft, Birthe Marie

2007-01-01

Analysis of selected terms and concepts within the domain of economics, including concept formation, economic models and their cognitive basis, and the indeterminacy of the terms......Analysis of selected terms and concepts within the domain of economics, including concept formation, economic models and their cognitive basis, and the indeterminacy of the terms...

Economic analysis of nuclear energy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Song, Ki Dong; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Kim, H. S

1999-12-01

The objective of this study is to analyze how the economics of nuclear power generation are affected by the change in nuclear environmental factors and then, to suggest desirable policy directions to improve the efficiency of the use of nuclear energy resources in korea. This study focused to analyze the impact of the change in 3 major nuclear environmental factors in Korea on the economics of nuclear power generation. To do this, environmental external cost, nuclear R and fund, and carbon emission control according to UNFCCC were selected as the major factors. First of all, this study evaluated the impacts on the health and the environment of air pollutants emitted from coal power plant and nuclear power plant, two major electric power generating options in Korea. Then, the environmental external costs of those two options were estimated by transforming the health and environmental impact in to monetary values. To do this, AIRPACTS and 'Impacts of atmospheric release' model developed by IAEA were used. Secondly, the impact of nuclear R and D fund raised by the utility on the increment of nuclear power generating cost was evaluated. Then, the desirable size of the fund in Korea was suggested by taking into consideration the case of Japan. This study also analyzed the influences of the fund on the economics of nuclear power generation. Finally, the role of nuclear power under the carbon emission regulation was analyzed. To do this, the econometric model was developed and the impact of the regulation on the national economy was estimated. Further efforts were made to estimate the role by developing CGE model in order to improve the reliability of the results from the econometric model.

Modeling the economic impact of medication adherence in type 2 diabetes: a theoretical approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Cobden, David S; Niessen, Louis W; Rutten, Frans Fh; Redekop, W Ken

2010-09-07

While strong correlations exist between medication adherence and health economic outcomes in type 2 diabetes, current economic analyses do not adequately consider them. We propose a new approach to incorporate adherence in cost-effectiveness analysis. We describe a theoretical approach to incorporating the effect of adherence when estimating the long-term costs and effectiveness of an antidiabetic medication. This approach was applied in a Markov model which includes common diabetic health states. We compared two treatments using hypothetical patient cohorts: injectable insulin (IDM) and oral (OAD) medications. Two analyses were performed, one which ignored adherence (analysis 1) and one which incorporated it (analysis 2). Results from the two analyses were then compared to explore the extent to which adherence may impact incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. In both analyses, IDM was more costly and more effective than OAD. When adherence was ignored, IDM generated an incremental cost-effectiveness of $12,097 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained versus OAD. Incorporation of adherence resulted in a slightly higher ratio ($16,241/QALY). This increase was primarily due to better adherence with OAD than with IDM, and the higher direct medical costs for IDM. Incorporating medication adherence into economic analyses can meaningfully influence the estimated cost-effectiveness of type 2 diabetes treatments, and should therefore be considered in health care decision-making. Future work on the impact of adherence on health economic outcomes, and validation of different approaches to modeling adherence, is warranted.

Modelling Dynamics of Main Economic Indicators of an Enterprise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sherstennykov Yurii V.

2014-03-01

Full Text Available The article develops an economic and mathematical model of dynamics of main economic indicators of an enterprise, reflected in six book-keeping accounts with consideration of logistics and interrelation with current market characteristics and needs of products consumers. It applies this model for a quantitative study of influence of an advertising campaign and seasonality upon quantitative indicators of economic activity of the enterprise. The enterprise operation programme includes internal financial and economic procedures, which ensure the production process, and also connection with suppliers and buyers (customers. When setting different initial conditions, it is possible to trace transitional processes and enterprise entering (under favourable conditions the stationary mode of operation or its laying-off (in case of insufficiency of circulating funds. The developed model contains many parameters, which allow not only study of dependence of enterprise operation on alteration of one of them but also optimisation of economic conditions of functioning.

Evolutionary-Hierarchical Bases of the Formation of Cluster Model of Innovation Economic Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuliya Vladimirovna Dubrovskaya

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The functioning of a modern economic system is based on the interaction of objects of different hierarchical levels. Thus, the problem of the study of innovation processes taking into account the mutual influence of the activities of these economic actors becomes important. The paper dwells evolutionary basis for the formation of models of innovation development on the basis of micro and macroeconomic analysis. Most of the concepts recognized that despite a big number of diverse models, the coordination of the relations between economic agents is of crucial importance for the successful innovation development. According to the results of the evolutionary-hierarchical analysis, the authors reveal key phases of the development of forms of business cooperation, science and government in the domestic economy. It has become the starting point of the conception of the characteristics of the interaction in the cluster models of innovation development of the economy. Considerable expectancies on improvement of the national innovative system are connected with the development of cluster and network structures. The main objective of government authorities is the formation of mechanisms and institutions that will foster cooperation between members of the clusters. The article explains that the clusters cannot become the factors in the growth of the national economy, not being an effective tool for interaction between the actors of the regional innovative systems.

Economic analysis of emerald ash borer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) management options.

Science.gov (United States)

Vannatta, A R; Hauer, R H; Schuettpelz, N M

2012-02-01

Emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis (Fairmaire) (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), plays a significant role in the health and extent of management of native North American ash species in urban forests. An economic analysis of management options was performed to aid decision makers in preparing for likely future infestations. Separate ash tree population valuations were derived from the i-Tree Streets program and the Council of Tree and Landscape Appraisers (CTLA) methodology. A relative economic analysis was used to compare a control option (do-nothing approach, only removing ash trees as they die) to three distinct management options: 1) preemptive removal of all ash trees over a 5 yr period, 2) preemptive removal of all ash trees and replacement with comparable nonash trees, or 3) treating the entire population of ash trees with insecticides to minimize mortality. For each valuation and management option, an annual analysis was performed for both the remaining ash tree population and those lost to emerald ash borer. Retention of ash trees using insecticide treatments typically retained greater urban forest value, followed by doing nothing (control), which was better than preemptive removal and replacement. Preemptive removal without tree replacement, which was the least expensive management option, also provided the lowest net urban forest value over the 20-yr simulation. A "no emerald ash borer" scenario was modeled to further serve as a benchmark for each management option and provide a level of economic justification for regulatory programs aimed at slowing the movement of emerald ash borer.

Economic data used in working group 5 analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haffner, D.R.; Parker, M.B.

1979-03-01

This paper presents the economic data used in the detailed economic analysis carried out in the U.S. paper WG-40 and is also used to arrive at the economics conclusions in U.S. papers WG 5A-19 and WG 5A-22. The data base includes reactor characteristics for the standard, 15 percent improved and 30 percent improved LWR plus the FBR system characteristics, fuel cost data, reactor plant capital cost data, and economic data (debt rate, equity rate, fixed charge rate, etc.)

Insurer’s activity as object of economic analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O.O. Poplavskiy

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the substantiation of theoretical fundamentals of insurer’s analysis and peculiarities of its implementation. The attention has been focused on the important role of economic analysis in economic science which is confirmed by its active use in research and practical orientation. The author summarizes the classification and principles of insurer’s activity analysis, supplements it with specific principles for insurer’s environment, publicity and risk-orientation which enable increasingly to take into account the peculiarities of insurance relations. The paper pays attention to the specification of elements of analysis and its key directions including the analysis of insurer’s financing, the analysis of insurance operations and the analysis of investment activity which will allow the effective functioning of risk management system.

Can cognitive science create a cognitive economics?

Science.gov (United States)

Chater, Nick

2015-02-01

Cognitive science can intersect with economics in at least three productive ways: by providing richer models of individual behaviour for use in economic analysis; by drawing from economic theory in order to model distributed cognition; and jointly to create more powerful 'rational' models of cognitive processes and social interaction. There is the prospect of moving from behavioural economics to a genuinely cognitive economics. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Mathematical modelling in economic processes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L.V. Kravtsova

2008-06-01

Full Text Available In article are considered a number of methods of mathematical modelling of economic processes and opportunities of use of spreadsheets Excel for reception of the optimum decision of tasks or calculation of financial operations with the help of the built-in functions.

Econometric modelling of economic security in business operations management

OpenAIRE

Chagovets, L. О.; Nevezhin, V. P.; Zakharova, О. V.

2014-01-01

The article deals with econometric modeling of economic security. The model of evaluating transaction costs effect on the level of enterprise economic security is provided. The econometric models of evaluating economic security that are used in research are based on panel data. According to the results, the reserves for increasing the general level of economic security due to transaction costs reduction are revealed. Розглянуто питання економетричного моделювання економічної безпеки. Предс...

The Missing Stakeholder Group : Why Patients Should be Involved in Health Economic Modelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Voorn, George A K; Vemer, Pepijn; Hamerlijnck, Dominique; Ramos, Isaac Corro; Teunissen, Geertruida J; Al, Maiwenn; Feenstra, Talitha L

Evaluations of healthcare interventions, e.g. new drugs or other new treatment strategies, commonly include a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) that is based on the application of health economic (HE) models. As end users, patients are important stakeholders regarding the outcomes of CEAs, yet their

Integrated Ecological-Economic Modeling of Regions with the use of GIS Technologies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G.N. Bulatova

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The paper shows the process of modeling the integrated map “Scheme of the ecological and economic regionalization of the territory of the Russian Federation on the basis of the mineral and raw materials base of natural adsorbents” using GIS technologies. The map is based on three main groups of indicators: natural, economic and environmental. The ecological content of the map is characterized by indicators that are potential or actual sources of pollutant release into the environment (nuclear power plants, nuclear reactors, radioactive waste storage and disposal sites, nuclear test sites, industrial enterprises, railways, operating and under construction oil pipelines, hydrocarbon fields, etc.. The economic component of the map is the reserves estimated by the indicators of study and development, the relationship to the subsoil fund and forecast resources. The natural group of indicators is represented by the mineral and raw material base of natural adsorbents (fields and objects of forecast resources that can be used to prevent harmful emissions and for the ecological and economic rehabilitation of contaminated areas. Based on the analysis of cartographic data, the ecological and economic areas of the territorial distribution of man-caused environmental impacts and the presence of adsorption raw materials are identified. As an example, a description is given of the ecological and economic model of the regionalization of the Privolzhsky Federal District using the GIS “Mineral resource base of natural adsorbents of Russia” developed at the Federal State Unitary Enterprise TsNIIgeolnerud.

OBJECT ORIENTED MODELLING, A MODELLING METHOD OF AN ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION ACTIVITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

TĂNĂSESCU ANA

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Now, most economic organizations use different information systems types in order to facilitate their activity. There are different methodologies, methods and techniques that can be used to design information systems. In this paper, I propose to present the advantages of using the object oriented modelling at the information system design of an economic organization. Thus, I have modelled the activity of a photo studio, using Visual Paradigm for UML as a modelling tool. For this purpose, I have identified the use cases for the analyzed system and I have presented the use case diagram. I have, also, realized the system static and dynamic modelling, through the most known UML diagrams.

Economic analysis of potential uses of geothermal energy in agriculture

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cone, B.W.

1978-02-01

The economic feasibility and water quality considerations of the cultural practice of soil warming was evaluated using existing technical, agronomic, and economic data. It was hypothesized that it is technically and economically feasible to use geothermal energy in the cultural practice of soil warming for specific crops. The analysis attempted to reject the hypothesis. Since the hypothesis could not be rejected, the results are presented as a profit equation suitable for inclusion in the GEOCOST computer program. This determination of economic feasibility utilized heterogeneous crop yield data by comparing the elasticity of response with a normalized product-factor price ratio. Soil warming was determined to be feasible when the elasticity of production was equal to or greater than the normalized product-factor price ratio. A farm enterprise was determined profitable if net returns were positive. An empirical model in which the energy dissipation rate is a function of the difference between heat source temperature and mean monthly air temperature was transformed to utilize data describing the total heat applied during the growing season. Heat input was then measured as the total number of calories per square centimeter applied during the growing season.

Long-term relationships of major macro-variables in a resource-related economic model of Australia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harvie, Charles; Hoa, T. van

1993-01-01

The paper reports the results of a simple cointegration analysis applied to bivariate causality models using data on resource output, oil prices, terms of trade, current account and output growth to investigate the long-term relationships among these major macroeconomic aggregates in a resource-related economic model of Australia. For the period 1960-1990, the empirical evidence indicates that these five macro-variables, as formulated in our model, are not random walks. In addition, resource production and oil prices are significantly cointegrated, and they are also significantly cointegrated with the current account, terms of trade and economic growth. These findings provide support to the long-term adjustments foundation of our resource-related model. (author)

FISHRENT; Bio-economic simulation and optimisation model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Salz, P.; Buisman, F.C.; Soma, K.; Frost, H.; Accadia, P.; Prellezo, R.

2011-01-01

Key findings: The FISHRENT model is a major step forward in bio-economic model-ling, combining features that have not been fully integrated in earlier models: 1- Incorporation of any number of species (or stock) and/or fleets 2- Integration of simulation and optimisation over a period of 25 years 3-

Modeling hard clinical end-point data in economic analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Kansal, Anuraag R; Zheng, Ying; Palencia, Roberto; Ruffolo, Antonio; Hass, Bastian; Sorensen, Sonja V

2013-11-01

The availability of hard clinical end-point data, such as that on cardiovascular (CV) events among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, is increasing, and as a result there is growing interest in using hard end-point data of this type in economic analyses. This study investigated published approaches for modeling hard end-points from clinical trials and evaluated their applicability in health economic models with different disease features. A review of cost-effectiveness models of interventions in clinically significant therapeutic areas (CV diseases, cancer, and chronic lower respiratory diseases) was conducted in PubMed and Embase using a defined search strategy. Only studies integrating hard end-point data from randomized clinical trials were considered. For each study included, clinical input characteristics and modeling approach were summarized and evaluated. A total of 33 articles (23 CV, eight cancer, two respiratory) were accepted for detailed analysis. Decision trees, Markov models, discrete event simulations, and hybrids were used. Event rates were incorporated either as constant rates, time-dependent risks, or risk equations based on patient characteristics. Risks dependent on time and/or patient characteristics were used where major event rates were >1%/year in models with fewer health states (Models of infrequent events or with numerous health states generally preferred constant event rates. The detailed modeling information and terminology varied, sometimes requiring interpretation. Key considerations for cost-effectiveness models incorporating hard end-point data include the frequency and characteristics of the relevant clinical events and how the trial data is reported. When event risk is low, simplification of both the model structure and event rate modeling is recommended. When event risk is common, such as in high risk populations, more detailed modeling approaches, including individual simulations or explicitly time-dependent event rates, are

Transportation and quantitative analysis of socio-economic development of relations

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yun

2017-12-01

Transportation has a close relationship with socio-economic. This article selects the indicators which can measure the development of transportation and socio-economic, using the method of correlation analysis, regression analysis, intensity of transportation analysis and transport elastic analysis, to analyze the relationship between them quantitatively, so that it has the fact guiding sense in the national development planning for the future.

An Economic Analysis of Identity and Career Choice

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Humlum, Maria Knoth; Kleinjans, Kristin J.; Nielsen, Helena Skyt

2007-01-01

Standard economic models which focus on pecuniary payoffs cannot explain why there are highly able individuals who choose careers with low pecuniary re- turns. Therefore, financial incentives are unlikely to be effective in influencing career choices of these individuals. Based on Akerlof...... and Kranton (2000), we con- sider a model of career choice and identity where individuals derive non-pecuniary identity payoffs. Using factor analysis on a range of attitude questions, we find two factors related to identity (career orientation and social orientation), which are important for educational...... choices. The implication is that policymakers and institutions of higher education need to focus on identity related issues rather than just improved financial incentives if they aim at attracting the high ability youth to occupations with excess demand for labor....

Simulation of electric power conservation strategies: model of economic evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pinhel, A.C.C.

1992-01-01

A methodology for the economic evaluation model for energy conservation programs to be executed by the National Program of Electric Power Conservation is presented. From data as: forecasting of conserved energy, tariffs, energy costs and budget, the model calculates the economic indexes for the programs, allowing the evaluation of economic impacts in the electric sector. (C.G.C.)

Health economic assessment: a methodological primer.

Science.gov (United States)

Simoens, Steven

2009-12-01

This review article aims to provide an introduction to the methodology of health economic assessment of a health technology. Attention is paid to defining the fundamental concepts and terms that are relevant to health economic assessments. The article describes the methodology underlying a cost study (identification, measurement and valuation of resource use, calculation of costs), an economic evaluation (type of economic evaluation, the cost-effectiveness plane, trial- and model-based economic evaluation, discounting, sensitivity analysis, incremental analysis), and a budget impact analysis. Key references are provided for those readers who wish a more advanced understanding of health economic assessments.

Health Economic Assessment: A Methodological Primer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steven Simoens

2009-11-01

Full Text Available This review article aims to provide an introduction to the methodology of health economic assessment of a health technology. Attention is paid to defining the fundamental concepts and terms that are relevant to health economic assessments. The article describes the methodology underlying a cost study (identification, measurement and valuation of resource use, calculation of costs, an economic evaluation (type of economic evaluation, the cost-effectiveness plane, trial- and model-based economic evaluation, discounting, sensitivity analysis, incremental analysis, and a budget impact analysis. Key references are provided for those readers who wish a more advanced understanding of health economic assessments.

Input-output model of regional environmental and economic impacts of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, M.H.; Bennett, J.T.

1979-01-01

The costs of delayed licensing of nuclear power plants calls for a more-comprehensive method of quantifying the economic and environmental impacts on a region. A traditional input-output (I-O) analysis approach is extended to assess the effects of changes in output, income, employment, pollution, water consumption, and the costs and revenues of local government disaggregated among 23 industry sectors during the construction and operating phases. Unlike earlier studies, this model uses nonlinear environmental interactions and specifies environmental feedbacks to the economic sector. 20 references

SAFIRE: A systems analysis code for ICF [inertial confinement fusion] reactor economics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McCarville, T.J.; Meier, W.R.; Carson, C.F.; Glasgow, B.B.

1987-01-01

The SAFIRE (Systems Analysis for ICF Reactor Economics) code incorporates analytical models for scaling the cost and performance of several inertial confinement fusion reactor concepts for electric power. The code allows us to vary design parameters (e.g., driver energy, chamber pulse rate, net electric power) and evaluate the resulting change in capital cost of power plant and the busbar cost of electricity. The SAFIRE code can be used to identify the most attractive operating space and to identify those design parameters with the greatest leverage for improving the economics of inertial confinement fusion electric power plants

Cyanide removal from industrial wastewater by cross-flow nanofiltration: transport modeling and economic evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Pal, Parimal; Bhakta, Pamela; Kumar, Ramesh

2014-08-01

A modeling and simulation study, along with an economic analysis, was carried out for the separation of cyanide from industrial wastewater using a flat sheet cross-flow nanofiltration membrane module. With the addition of a pre-microfiltration step, nanofiltration was carried out using real coke wastewater under different operating conditions. Under the optimum operating pressure of 13 bars and a pH of 10.0, a rate of more than 95% separation of cyanide was achieved. That model predictions agreed very well with the experimental findings, as is evident in the Willmott d-index value (> 0.95) and relative error (economic analysis was also done, considering the capacity of a running coking plant. The findings are likely to be very useful in the scale-up and design of industrial plants for the treatment of cyanide-bearing wastewater.

Economic damages of ozone air pollution to crops using combined air quality and GIS modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Vlachokostas, Ch.; Nastis, S. A.; Achillas, Ch.; Kalogeropoulos, K.; Karmiris, I.; Moussiopoulos, N.; Chourdakis, E.; Banias, G.; Limperi, N.

2010-09-01

This study aims at presenting a combined air quality and GIS modelling methodological approach in order to estimate crop damages from photochemical air pollution, depict their spatial resolution and assess the order of magnitude regarding the corresponding economic damages. The analysis is conducted within the Greater Thessaloniki Area, Greece, a Mediterranean territory which is characterised by high levels of photochemical air pollution and considerable agricultural activity. Ozone concentration fields for 2002 and for specific emission reduction scenarios for the year 2010 were estimated with the Ozone Fine Structure model in the area under consideration. Total economic damage to crops turns out to be significant and estimated to be approximately 43 M€ for the reference year. Production of cotton presents the highest economic loss, which is over 16 M€, followed by table tomato (9 M€), rice (4.2 M€), wheat (4 M€) and oilseed rape (2.8 M€) cultivations. Losses are not spread uniformly among farmers and the major losses occur in areas with valuable ozone-sensitive crops. The results are very useful for highlighting the magnitude of the total economic impacts of photochemical air pollution to the area's agricultural sector and can potentially be used for comparison with studies worldwide. Furthermore, spatial analysis of the economic damage could be of importance for governmental authorities and decision makers since it provides an indicative insight, especially if the economic instruments such as financial incentives or state subsidies to farmers are considered.

Development of a decision model for the techno-economic assessment of municipal solid waste utilization pathways.

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, Md Mohib-Ul-Haque; Jain, Siddharth; Vaezi, Mahdi; Kumar, Amit

2016-02-01

Economic competitiveness is one of the key factors in making decisions towards the development of waste conversion facilities and devising a sustainable waste management strategy. The goal of this study is to develop a framework, as well as to develop and demonstrate a comprehensive techno-economic model to help county and municipal decision makers in establishing waste conversion facilities. The user-friendly data-intensive model, called the FUNdamental ENgineering PrinciplEs-based ModeL for Estimation of Cost of Energy and Fuels from MSW (FUNNEL-Cost-MSW), compares nine different waste management scenarios, including landfilling and composting, in terms of economic parameters such as gate fees and return on investment. In addition, a geographic information system (GIS) model was developed to determine suitable locations for waste conversion facilities and landfill sites based on integration of environmental, social, and economic factors. Finally, a case study on Parkland County and its surrounding counties in the province of Alberta, Canada, was conducted and a sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the influence of the key technical and economic parameters on the calculated results. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Land-use change in oil palm dominated tropical landscapes-An agent-based model to explore ecological and socio-economic trade-offs.

Science.gov (United States)

Dislich, Claudia; Hettig, Elisabeth; Salecker, Jan; Heinonen, Johannes; Lay, Jann; Meyer, Katrin M; Wiegand, Kerstin; Tarigan, Suria

2018-01-01

Land-use changes have dramatically transformed tropical landscapes. We describe an ecological-economic land-use change model as an integrated, exploratory tool used to analyze how tropical land-use change affects ecological and socio-economic functions. The model analysis seeks to determine what kind of landscape mosaic can improve the ensemble of ecosystem functioning, biodiversity, and economic benefit based on the synergies and trade-offs that we have to account for. More specifically, (1) how do specific ecosystem functions, such as carbon storage, and economic functions, such as household consumption, relate to each other? (2) How do external factors, such as the output prices of crops, affect these relationships? (3) How do these relationships change when production inefficiency differs between smallholder farmers and learning is incorporated? We initialize the ecological-economic model with artificially generated land-use maps parameterized to our study region. The economic sub-model simulates smallholder land-use management decisions based on a profit maximization assumption. Each household determines factor inputs for all household fields and decides on land-use change based on available wealth. The ecological sub-model includes a simple account of carbon sequestration in above-ground and below-ground vegetation. We demonstrate model capabilities with results on household consumption and carbon sequestration from different output price and farming efficiency scenarios. The overall results reveal complex interactions between the economic and ecological spheres. For instance, model scenarios with heterogeneous crop-specific household productivity reveal a comparatively high inertia of land-use change. Our model analysis even shows such an increased temporal stability in landscape composition and carbon stocks of the agricultural area under dynamic price trends. These findings underline the utility of ecological-economic models, such as ours, to act as

A Multi-Region Model of Economic Growth with Human Capital and Negative Externalities in Innovation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Batabyal, A.; Nijkamp, P.

2013-01-01

We use a multi-region model and provide the first theoretical analysis of the effects of human capital use and a particular kind of innovative activity on economic growth. In each of the N heterogeneous regions in our model, consumers have constant relative risk aversion preferences, there are

Economic analysis of an epilepsy outreach model of care in a university hospital setting.

Science.gov (United States)

Maloney, Eimer; McGinty, Ronan N; Costello, Daniel J

2017-07-01

The prevalence of epilepsy in people with intellectual disability is higher than in the general population and prevalence rates increase with increasing levels of disability. Prevalence rates of epilepsy are highest among those living in residential care. The healthcare needs of people with intellectual disability and epilepsy are complex and deserve special consideration in terms of healthcare provision and access to specialist epilepsy clinics, which are usually held in acute hospital campuses. This patient population is at risk of suboptimal care because of significant difficulties accessing specialist epilepsy care which is typically delivered in the environs of acute hospitals. In 2014, the epilepsy service at Cork University Hospital established an Epilepsy Outreach Service providing regular, ambulatory outpatient follow up at residential care facilities in Cork city and county in an effort to improve access to care, reduce the burden and expense of patient and carer travel to hospital outpatient appointments, and to provide a dedicated specialist phone service for epilepsy related queries in order to reduce emergency room visits when possible. We present the findings of an economic analysis of the outreach service model of care compared to the traditional hospital outpatient service and demonstrate significant cost savings and improved access to care with this model. Ideally these cost savings should be used to develop novel ways to enhance epilepsy care for persons with disability. We propose that this model of care can be more suitable for persons with disability living in residential care who are at risk of losing access to specialist epilepsy care. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Economic impacts of a hypothetical H1N1 pandemic : a cross-sectional analysis.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, Braeton J.; Shaneyfelt, Calvin R.

2010-06-01

A NISAC study on the economic effects of a hypothetical H1N1 pandemic was done in order to assess the differential impacts at the state and industry levels given changes in absenteeism, mortality, and consumer spending rates. Part of the analysis was to determine if there were any direct relationships between pandemic impacts and gross domestic product (GDP) losses. Multiple regression analysis was used because it shows very clearly which predictors are significant in their impact on GDP. GDP impact data taken from the REMI PI+ (Regional Economic Models, Inc., Policy Insight +) model was used to serve as the response variable. NISAC economists selected the average absenteeism rate, mortality rate, and consumer spending categories as the predictor variables. Two outliers were found in the data: Nevada and Washington, DC. The analysis was done twice, with the outliers removed for the second analysis. The second set of regressions yielded a cleaner model, but for the purposes of this study, the analysts deemed it not as useful because particular interest was placed on determining the differential impacts to states. Hospitals and accommodation were found to be the most important predictors of percentage change in GDP among the consumer spending variables.

Economic analysis of KNGR's conceptual design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roh, Myung-Sub; Chung, Kyung-Nam; Hong, Jang-Hee

1997-01-01

During the last two decades in Korea, with the rapid economic growth and industrialization, nuclear power has played an important role in electric power production. At present, Korea has 11 nuclear units in operation with total installed capacity of 9,916MWe and 7 units under construction with total capacity of 6,100MWe. An advanced reactor development program, called Korean Next Generation Reactor (KNGR), has been started for the coming 21st century. It aims to enhance safety features compared to existing plants and follow the target to maintain the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy with alternative energy sources. In order to meet these requirements, a number of technical and economical factors have been taken into the program. These factors include the economy of plant size, design simplification and optimization, and reduction of construction period. This paper addresses the preliminary economic analysis results for the KNGR design. It is indicated that KNGR has about 17% economic advantage compared to the current 1,000 MWe PWR. This paper also describes some of the experiences gained and important factors related to reducing the investment and operation costs. 5 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs

Handbook of environmental and resource economics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bergh, J.C.J.M. van den [eds.

1999-07-01

The book contains 79 chapters by experts divided into ten parts entitled: introduction; economics of natural resources; economics of environmental policy; international aspects of environmental economics and policy; space in environmental economics; environmental macroeconomics; economic valuation and evaluation; interdisciplinary issues; methods and models in environmental and resource economics; and prospects. Chapters of particular relevance to the energy sector are entitled: lessons from using transferable permits to control air pollution in the United States; equity in environmental policy with an application to global warming; transboundary environmental problems; tax instruments for curbing CO{sub 2} emissions; transport and the environment; energy-economy-environment models; decompositions methodology in energy demand and environmental analysis, and input-output structural decomposition analysis of energy and the environment.

Economic openness and economic growth: A cointegration analysis for ASEAN-5 countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Klimis Vogiatzoglou

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The paper considers three channels of economic openness, namely FDI, imports, and exports, and examines their short-run and long-run effects on the economic growth in the five founding member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN over the period from 1980 to 2014. Besides the impact on the economic growth, the authors analyze all possible causal interrelationships to discern patterns and directions of causality among FDI, imports, exports, and GDP. The quantitative analysis, which is based on the vector error correction co-integration framework, is conducted separately for each country in order to assess their individual experiences and allow for a comparative view. Although the precise details differ across countries, the findings indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic openness and GDP in all ASEAN-5 economies. FDI, imports and exports have a significantly positive short-run and long-run impact on the economic growth. Our results also show that export-led growth is the most important economic growth factor in most countries, followed by FDI-led growth. Another crucial finding is the bi-directional causality between exports and FDI across the ASEAN-5 countries. This indicates the presence of direct and indirect effects on GDP and a self-reinforcing process of causality between those two variables, which strengthens their impact on the economic growth.

Socio-economic analysis in the transport sector

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

an important element in the political decision process. The analysis provides information about how the society’s resources – from an economic viewpoint – are used in the best possible way, and how costs and benefits are distributed between e.g. the state, the users and the environment. The society does......This compendium is intended to be a tool for students in conducting socio-economic appraisals in the transport sector following the recommendations made by the Danish Manual for Socio-economic Appraisal (DMT, 2003). The appraisal process is in this compendium outlined as a step-by-step process...

Economic Analysis of Improved Alkaline Water Electrolysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuckshinrichs, Wilhelm; Ketelaer, Thomas; Koj, Jan Christian

2017-01-01

Alkaline water electrolysis (AWE) is a mature hydrogen production technology and there exists a range of economic assessments for available technologies. For advanced AWEs, which may be based on novel polymer-based membrane concepts, it is of prime importance that development comes along with new configurations and technical and economic key process parameters for AWE that might be of interest for further economic assessments. This paper presents an advanced AWE technology referring to three different sites in Europe (Germany, Austria, and Spain). The focus is on financial metrics, the projection of key performance parameters of advanced AWEs, and further financial and tax parameters. For financial analysis from an investor’s (business) perspective, a comprehensive assessment of a technology not only comprises cost analysis but also further financial analysis quantifying attractiveness and supply/market flexibility. Therefore, based on cash flow (CF) analysis, a comprehensible set of metrics may comprise levelised cost of energy or, respectively, levelized cost of hydrogen (LCH) for cost assessment, net present value (NPV) for attractiveness analysis, and variable cost (VC) for analysis of market flexibility. The German AWE site turns out to perform best in all three financial metrics (LCH, NPV, and VC). Though there are slight differences in investment cost and operation and maintenance cost projections for the three sites, the major cost impact is due to the electricity cost. Although investment cost is slightly lower and labor cost is significantly lower in Spain, the difference can not outweigh the higher electricity cost compared to Germany. Given the assumption that the electrolysis operators are customers directly and actively participating in power markets, and based on the regulatory framework in the three countries, in this special case electricity cost in Germany is lowest. However, as electricity cost is profoundly influenced by political decisions as

Economic Analysis of Improved Alkaline Water Electrolysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kuckshinrichs, Wilhelm, E-mail: w.kuckshinrichs@fz-juelich.de; Ketelaer, Thomas; Koj, Jan Christian [Forschungszentrum Juelich, Institute for Energy and Climate Research – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (IEK-STE), Juelich (Germany)

2017-02-20

Alkaline water electrolysis (AWE) is a mature hydrogen production technology and there exists a range of economic assessments for available technologies. For advanced AWEs, which may be based on novel polymer-based membrane concepts, it is of prime importance that development comes along with new configurations and technical and economic key process parameters for AWE that might be of interest for further economic assessments. This paper presents an advanced AWE technology referring to three different sites in Europe (Germany, Austria, and Spain). The focus is on financial metrics, the projection of key performance parameters of advanced AWEs, and further financial and tax parameters. For financial analysis from an investor’s (business) perspective, a comprehensive assessment of a technology not only comprises cost analysis but also further financial analysis quantifying attractiveness and supply/market flexibility. Therefore, based on cash flow (CF) analysis, a comprehensible set of metrics may comprise levelised cost of energy or, respectively, levelized cost of hydrogen (LCH) for cost assessment, net present value (NPV) for attractiveness analysis, and variable cost (VC) for analysis of market flexibility. The German AWE site turns out to perform best in all three financial metrics (LCH, NPV, and VC). Though there are slight differences in investment cost and operation and maintenance cost projections for the three sites, the major cost impact is due to the electricity cost. Although investment cost is slightly lower and labor cost is significantly lower in Spain, the difference can not outweigh the higher electricity cost compared to Germany. Given the assumption that the electrolysis operators are customers directly and actively participating in power markets, and based on the regulatory framework in the three countries, in this special case electricity cost in Germany is lowest. However, as electricity cost is profoundly influenced by political decisions as

A Study on the development of macro environmental economic model(I)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chung, Young Keun; Han, Min Jung [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

1998-12-01

This study is the first year study of the two year research project for developing a macro environmental economic model to analyze environment and economics. By using this model, the economic effects of investment on pollution reduction and on energy conservation are analyzed. Also, a comprehensive modeling of analyzing effects of environmental tax, reduction on greenhouse gas emission, and problems on foreign exchange on environment and economy is a main goal of this study. It is planned to develop a simulation program for the estimation of model and policies using environmental and economic data. 126 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs.

Combined-cycle steam section parametric analysis by thermo-economic simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Macor, A.; Reini, M.

1991-01-01

In the case of industrial cogeneration plants, thermal power production is, in general, strictly dependent on the technological requirements of the production cycle, whereas, the electrical power which is produced can be auto- consumed or ceded to the utility grid. In both cases, an economic worth is given to this energy which influences the overall economic feasibility of the plant. The purpose of this paper is to examine parametric inter-relationships between economic and thermodynamic performance optimization techniques. Comparisons are then made of the results obtained with the use of the thermo- economic analysis technique suggested in this paper with those obtained with the use of indicators in other exergo-economic analysis techniques

Thermodynamics and process analysis for future economic scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ayres, R.U.

1995-01-01

Economists are increasingly interested in forecasting future costs and benefits of policies for dealing with materials/energy fluxes, polluting emissions and environmental impacts on various scales, from sectoral to global. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are currently popular because they project demand and industrial structure into the future, along an equilibrium path. But they are applicable only to the extent that structural changes occur in or near equilibrium, independent of radical technological (or social) change. The alternative tool for analyzing economic implications of scenario assumptions is to use Leontief-type Input-Output (I-O) models. I-O models are unable to endogenize structural shifts (changing I-O coefficients). However, this can be a virtue when considering radical rather than incremental shifts. Postulated I-O tables can be used independently to check the internal consistency of scenarios. Or I-O models can be used to generate scenarios by linking them to econometric 'macro-drivers' (which can, in principle, be CGE models). Explicit process analysis can be integrated, in principle, with I-O models. This hybrid scheme provides a natural means of satisfying physical constraints, especially the first and second laws of thermodynamics. This is important, to avoid constructing scenarios based on physically impossible processes. Process analysis is really the only available tool for constructing physically plausible alternative future I-O tables, and generating materials/energy and waste emissions coefficients. Explicit process analysis also helps avoid several problems characteristic of 'pure' CGE or I-O models, viz. (1) aggregation errors (2) inability to handle arbitrary combinations of co-product and co-input relationships and (3) inability to reflect certain non-linearities such as internal feedback loops. 4 figs., 2 tabs., 38 refs

Energy. Application of solar energy in dwellings: A technical and economical analysis for the European community

Science.gov (United States)

1980-03-01

The technical possibilities and economical limitations of solar heating systems for the application in swimming pools, hot water preparation, space heating and air conditioning were investigated. This analysis was performed for dwellings with special consideration of the climatic differences in each community. The computer program, which was used for solar system calculations, and all mathematical models, for technical and economical analysis were elucidated. In the technical and economical analysis, the most suitable solar system sizes for each community was determined. Four types of solar collectors were investigated. The single glass selective collector proved to be the most cost effective collector in all the above applications, provided the the additional cost for the selective coating is not more than 20DM/cu. From the results of the analysis certain recommendations were derived, which can improve the rapid implementation of solar heating systems into the market.

Energy consumption and economic growth—New evidence from meta analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Ping-Yu; Chen, Sheng-Tung; Chen, Chi-Chung

2012-01-01

The causal relationships between energy consumption and economic growth have given rise to much discussion but remain controversial. Alternative data sets based on different time spans, countries, energy policies and econometric approaches result in diverse outcomes. A meta analysis using a multinomial logit model with 174 samples governing the relationships between GDP and energy consumption is applied here to investigate the major factors that affect these controversial outcomes. The empirical results have demonstrated how the time spans, subject selections including GDP and energy consumption, econometric models, and tools for greenhouse gases emission reduction characteristics significantly affect these controversial outcomes. - Highlights: ► The controversial casual relationships between energy consumption and GDP are investigated. ► A meta analysis using a multinomial logit model is adopted. ► 74 studies governing the relationships between GDP and energy consumption was collected. ► The empirical results show how the probability of major factors affects such relationships.

Partial differential equation models in the socio-economic sciences

KAUST Repository

Burger, Martin

2014-10-06

Mathematical models based on partial differential equations (PDEs) have become an integral part of quantitative analysis in most branches of science and engineering, recently expanding also towards biomedicine and socio-economic sciences. The application of PDEs in the latter is a promising field, but widely quite open and leading to a variety of novel mathematical challenges. In this introductory article of the Theme Issue, we will provide an overview of the field and its recent boosting topics. Moreover, we will put the contributions to the Theme Issue in an appropriate perspective.

Environmental Impact Assessment for Socio-Economic Analysis of Chemicals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Calow, Peter; Biddinger, G; Hennes, C

This report describes the requirements for, and illustrates the application of, a methodology for a socio-economic analysis (SEA) especially as it might be adopted in the framework of REACH.......This report describes the requirements for, and illustrates the application of, a methodology for a socio-economic analysis (SEA) especially as it might be adopted in the framework of REACH....

[Model-based biofuels system analysis: a review].

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Shiyan; Zhang, Xiliang; Zhao, Lili; Ou, Xunmin

2011-03-01

Model-based system analysis is an important tool for evaluating the potential and impacts of biofuels, and for drafting biofuels technology roadmaps and targets. The broad reach of the biofuels supply chain requires that biofuels system analyses span a range of disciplines, including agriculture/forestry, energy, economics, and the environment. Here we reviewed various models developed for or applied to modeling biofuels, and presented a critical analysis of Agriculture/Forestry System Models, Energy System Models, Integrated Assessment Models, Micro-level Cost, Energy and Emission Calculation Models, and Specific Macro-level Biofuel Models. We focused on the models' strengths, weaknesses, and applicability, facilitating the selection of a suitable type of model for specific issues. Such an analysis was a prerequisite for future biofuels system modeling, and represented a valuable resource for researchers and policy makers.

Engineering Analysis and Economic Evaluation of the Synthesis of Composite CuO/ZnO/ZrO2 Nanocatalyst

Science.gov (United States)

Nandiyanto, A. B. D.; Hayati, W. R.; Aziz, T. A.; Ragadhita, R.; Abdullah, A. G.; Widiaty, I.

2018-02-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the synthesis process of composite CuO/ZnO/ZrO2 (CZZ) nanocatalyst. The CZZ nanocatalyst is used as a catalyst in the hydrogenation reaction, which is used to convert harmful CO2 gas into liquid fuels such as methanol. In this study, CZZ produced using the sol-gel autocombustion method was selected as a model of the production procedure. The evaluation was conducted into two factors: engineering and economic analysis. Engineering analysis was analyzed based on the available apparatuses and raw materials in online web. Then, these data were used and compared with the mass balance approximation. The economic analysis was done using several economic parameters, including such as gross margin, internal rate return, payback period, cumulative net value, break even point (BEP), profitability index on sales to investment. Engineering analysis showed the present method can be applied using available apparatuses and raw materials in market. Economic analysis result confirmed that the present project is profitable. The analysis concluded that the present project for the production of CZZ nanocatalyst is prospective in small scale industry and profitable (by positive values in all economic parameters).

Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

Science.gov (United States)

Grames, Johanna; Grass, Dieter; Prskawetz, Alexia; Blöschl, Günther

2015-04-01

Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy, water and population dynamics. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre, 2013, Viglione, 2014). These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This is the first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events: Investments in defense capital can avoid floods even when the water level is high, but on the other hand such investment competes with investment in productive capital and hence may reduce the level of consumption. When floods occur, the flood damage therefore depends on the existing defense capital. The aim is to find an optimal tradeoff between investments in productive versus defense capital such as to optimize the stream of consumption in the long-term. We assume a non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function (Yevjevich et.al. 1990, Zakaria 2001) which implies that the long-term equilibrium will be periodic . With our model we aim to derive mechanisms that allow consumption smoothing in the long term, and at the same time allow for optimal investment in flood defense to maximize economic output. We choose an aggregate welfare function that depends on the consumption level of the society as the objective function. I.e. we assume a social planer with perfect foresight that maximizes the aggregate welfare function. Within our model framework we can also study whether the path and level of defense capital (that protects people from floods) is related to the time preference rate of the social planner. Our model also allows to investigate how the frequency

Optimal model of economic diplomacy of Republic of Croatia in the contexst of global intelligence revolution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zdravko Bazdan

2010-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study is to point to the fact that economic diplomacy is a relatively new practice in international economics, specifically the expansion of the occurrence of Intelligence Revolution. The history in global relations shows that without economic diplomacy there is no optimal economic growth and social development. It is important to note that economic diplomacy should be important for our country and the political elite, as well as for the administration of Croatian economic subjects that want to compete in international market economy. Comparative analysis are particularly highlighted by French experience. Therefore, Croatia should copy the practice of those countries that are successful in economic diplomacy. And in the curricula - especially of our economic faculties - we should introduce the course of Economic Diplomacy. It is important to note, that in order to form our optimal model of economic diplomacy which would be headed by the President of Republic of Croatia formula should be based on: Intelligence Security Agency (SOA, Intelligence Service of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European Integration, Intelligence Service of the Croatian Chamber of Commerce and the Intelligence Service of the Ministry of Economy, Labor and Entrepreneurship. Described model would consist of intelligence subsystem with at least twelve components.

Improving models of democracy: the example of lagged effects of economic development, education, and gender equality.

Science.gov (United States)

Balaev, Mikhail

2014-07-01

The author examines how time delayed effects of economic development, education, and gender equality influence political democracy. Literature review shows inadequate understanding of lagged effects, which raises methodological and theoretical issues with the current quantitative studies of democracy. Using country-years as a unit of analysis, the author estimates a series of OLS PCSE models for each predictor with a systematic analysis of the distributions of the lagged effects. The second set of multiple OLS PCSE regressions are estimated including all three independent variables. The results show that economic development, education, and gender have three unique trajectories of the time-delayed effects: Economic development has long-term effects, education produces continuous effects regardless of the timing, and gender equality has the most prominent immediate and short term effects. The results call for the reassessment of model specifications and theoretical setups in the quantitative studies of democracy. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Women in development : issues for economic and sector analysis

OpenAIRE

Women in Development Division

1989-01-01

This paper highlights issues and action plans concerning women in economic and sector analysis and in project design. The paper focuses on the majority of women who are poor. It emphasizes measures to include women in development that contribute to economic performance, poverty reduction, slower population growth, and other broad development objectives. The paper concludes that women already contribute far more economically than is usually recognized. By expanding women's economic choices, ou...

Economic modeling of new stent platforms to evaluate cost effectiveness: analysis of the TAXUS Liberté versus TAXUS express stents.

Science.gov (United States)

Turco, Mark A; Kansal, Anuraag R; Stern, Sean; Amorosi, Stacey L; Underwood, Paul L; Lissovoy, Greg D E; Dawkins, Keith D

2012-08-01

With the changing health care environment, cost effectiveness is an important adjunct to clinical investigation when assessing new medical devices. This study presents an economic model to evaluate cost effectiveness of coronary stents. Markov modeling was developed comparing total costs (Medicare payer perspective) between TAXUS Liberté and TAXUS Express based on 3-year clinical outcomes from the TAXUS ATLAS Small Vessel and Long Lesion trials. The TAXUS Liberté 2.25-mm stent provided cost savings relative to TAXUS Express from a payer perspective ($17,605 vs. $20,281), driven by reduced target vessel revascularization (0.16 events/patient vs. 0.33 events/patient). In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, TAXUS Liberté was less costly with fewer major adverse cardiac events in over 99% of parameter sets. The TAXUS Liberté Long (38 mm) stent was cost neutral relative to TAXUS Express from a payer perspective ($18,545 vs. $18,551) with fewer myocardial infarctions and cardiac deaths. Accounting for angiography-driven revascularizations, TAXUS Liberté 2.25 mm still provided cost savings relative to TAXUS Express ($16,822 vs. $19,139), although TAXUS Liberté Long was more expensive than TAXUS Express ($17,886 vs. $17,652). From a hospital perspective, TAXUS Liberté Long provided cost savings up to a price premium of $671/stent, driven by fewer stents employed per patient. This analysis confirms the utility of economic modeling in assessing new stent platforms. TAXUS Liberté 2.25 mm is economically dominant relative to TAXUS Express when treating small vessels. TAXUS Liberté Long is cost neutral to modestly more costly than TAXUS Express 2.25 mm from a payer perspective. ©2012, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A cross-national analysis of how economic inequality predicts biodiversity loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Holland, Tim G; Peterson, Garry D; Gonzalez, Andrew

2009-10-01

We used socioeconomic models that included economic inequality to predict biodiversity loss, measured as the proportion of threatened plant and vertebrate species, across 50 countries. Our main goal was to evaluate whether economic inequality, measured as the Gini index of income distribution, improved the explanatory power of our statistical models. We compared four models that included the following: only population density, economic footprint (i.e., the size of the economy relative to the country area), economic footprint and income inequality (Gini index), and an index of environmental governance. We also tested the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, but it was not supported by the data. Statistical comparisons of the models revealed that the model including both economic footprint and inequality was the best predictor of threatened species. It significantly outperformed population density alone and the environmental governance model according to the Akaike information criterion. Inequality was a significant predictor of biodiversity loss and significantly improved the fit of our models. These results confirm that socioeconomic inequality is an important factor to consider when predicting rates of anthropogenic biodiversity loss.

The SocioEconomic Analysis of Repository Siting (SEARS): Technical description: Final draft

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-11-01

Socioeconomic impacts must be assessed both for the near term and for the future. One means of addressing the need for the assessment of such impacts has been through the development of the computerized socioeconomic assessment model called the SocioEconomic Analysis of Repository Siting (SEARS) model. The SEARS model was developed for the Battelle Project Management Division. It was refined and adapted from state-of-the-art computerized projection models and thoroughly validated and is now available for use in projecting the likely socioeconomic impacts of a repository facility. This Technical Description is one of six major products that describe the SEARS modeling system. 61 refs., 11 figs., 9 tabs

Techno-economical Analysis of Indoor Enterprise Solutions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liu, Zhen

2013-01-01

and the proposed centralized coordinated scheduling system. The proposed system is proved capable of achieving the best overall performance. Subsequently, we conduct the financial economic analysis for indoor DAS and Femto systems based on the TCO analysis. For very high data-rate in-building deployment, the Femto...

A Spatial-Economic Cost-Reduction Pathway Analysis for U.S. Offshore Wind Energy Development from 2015-2030

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Beiter, Philipp; Stehly, Tyler

2016-10-05

The potential for cost reduction and economic viability for offshore wind varies considerably within the United States. This analysis models the cost impact of a range of offshore wind locational cost variables across more than 7,000 potential coastal sites in the United States' offshore wind resource area. It also assesses the impact of over 50 technology innovations on potential future costs between 2015 and 2027 (Commercial Operation Date) for both fixed-bottom and floating wind systems. Comparing these costs to an initial assessment of local avoided generating costs, this analysis provides a framework for estimating the economic potential for offshore wind. Analyzing economic potential within this framework can help establish a refined understanding across industries of the technology and site-specific risks and opportunities associated with future offshore wind development. The findings from the original report indicate that under the modeled scenario, offshore wind can be expected to achieve significant cost reductions and may approach economic viability in some parts of the United States within the next 15 years.

Innovation, Decentralization and Planning in a Multi-Region Model of Schumpeterian Economic Growth

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Batabyal, A.; Nijkamp, P.

2014-01-01

We study innovation and the resulting Schumpeterian economic growth that this innovation gives rise to in a model with N heterogeneous regions. For each region i where i = 1,…,N, our analysis leads to six findings. First, we define the balanced growth path (BGP) allocations and the equilibrium of

Economic effectiveness of disease management programs: a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Krause, David S

2005-04-01

The economic effectiveness of disease management programs, which are designed to improve the clinical and economic outcomes for chronically ill individuals, has been evaluated extensively. A literature search was performed with MEDLINE and other published sources for the period covering January 1995 to September 2003. The search was limited to empirical articles that measured the direct economic outcomes for asthma, diabetes, and heart disease management programs. Of the 360 articles and presentations evaluated, only 67 met the selection criteria for meta-analysis, which included 32,041 subjects. Although some studies contained multiple measurements of direct economic outcomes, only one average effect size per study was included in the meta-analysis. Based on the studies included in the research, a meta-analysis provided a statistically significant answer to the question of whether disease management programs are economically effective. The magnitude of the observed average effect size for equally weighted studies was 0.311 (95% CI = 0.272-0.350). Statistically significant differences of effect sizes by study design, disease type and intensity of disease management program interventions were not found after a moderating variable, disease severity, was taken into consideration. The results suggest that disease management programs are more effective economically with severely ill enrollees and that chronic disease program interventions are most effective when coordinated with the overall level of disease severity. The findings can be generalized, which may assist health care policy makers and practitioners in addressing the issue of providing economically effective care for the growing number of individuals with chronic illness.

Studying Economic Space: Synthesis of Balance and Game-Theoretic Methods of Modelling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Natalia Gennadyevna Zakharchenko

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The article introduces questions about development of models used to study economic space. The author proposes the model that combines balance and game-theoretic methods for estimating system effects of economic agents’ interactions in multi-level economic space. The model is applied to research interactions between economic agents that are spatially heterogeneous within the Russian Far East. In the model the economic space of region is considered in a territorial dimension (the first level of decomposing space and also in territorial and product dimensions (the second level of decomposing space. The paper shows the mechanism of system effects formation that exists in the economic space of region. The author estimates system effects, analyses the real allocation of these effects between economic agents and identifies three types of local industrial markets: with zero, positive and negative system effects

Marketization and Economic Performance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Morten Balle

2010-01-01

. A reform enforcing compulsory competitive tendering in homecare for elderly people in Denmark is analysed and its relation to measures of economic performance is explored. Two competing models of marketization are contrasted in the analysis: a problem solving model inspired by public choice ideology...... little impact on economic performance is found, which lends support to an institutional interpretation of the findings....

Economic modelling of pork production-marketing chains

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ouden, den M.

1996-01-01

The research described in this thesis was focused on the development of economic simulation and optimization computer models to support decision making with respect to pork production- marketing chains. The models include three production stages: pig farrowing, pig fattening and pig slaughtering

Bifurcations of a class of singular biological economic models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Xue; Zhang Qingling; Zhang Yue

2009-01-01

This paper studies systematically a prey-predator singular biological economic model with time delay. It shows that this model exhibits two bifurcation phenomena when the economic profit is zero. One is transcritical bifurcation which changes the stability of the system, and the other is singular induced bifurcation which indicates that zero economic profit brings impulse, i.e., rapid expansion of the population in biological explanation. On the other hand, if the economic profit is positive, at a critical value of bifurcation parameter, the system undergoes a Hopf bifurcation, i.e., the increase of delay destabilizes the system and bifurcates into small amplitude periodic solution. Finally, by using Matlab software, numerical simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the results obtained here. In addition, we study numerically that the system undergoes a saddle-node bifurcation when the bifurcation parameter goes through critical value of positive economic profit.

Economic Feasibility Analysis Report. Strategic Mobility 21

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Mallon, Lawrence G; Monaco, Kristen; Fetty, George R

2007-01-01

.... This multi-disciplinary analysis provides an objective examination of the economic and operational feasibility of a shuttle train intermodal rail operation under various scenarios connecting the San...

Thermo-economic analysis of proton exchange membrane fuel cell fuelled with methanol and methane

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suleiman, B.; Abdulkareem, A.S.; Musa, U.; Mohammed, I.A.; Olutoye, M.A.; Abdullahi, Y.I.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Modified proton exchange membrane fuel cell was reported. • Thermolib software was used for the simulation of PEM fuel cell configurations. • Optimal operating parameters at 50 kW output of each process were determined. • Thermo-economic analysis is the most efficient way of process selection. • Methane system configuration has been identified as the best preferred PEM fuel cell. - Abstract: Exergy and economic analysis is often used to find and identify the most efficient process configuration for proton exchange membrane fuel cell from the thermo-economic point of view. This work gives an explicit account of the synergetic effect of exergetic and economic analysis of proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) using methanol and methane as fuel sources. This was carried out through computer simulation using Thermolib simulation toolbox. Data generated from the simulated model were subsequently used for the thermodynamic and economic analysis. Analysis of energy requirement for the two selected processes revealed that the methane fuelled system requires the lower amount of energy (4.578 kJ/s) in comparison to the methanol fuelled configuration which requires 180.719 J/s. Energy analysis of both configurations showed that the principle of energy conservation was satisfied while the result of the exergy analysis showed high exergetic efficiency around major equipment (heat exchangers, compressors and pumps) of methane fuelled configuration. Higher irreversibility rate were observed around the burner, stack, and steam reformer. These trends of exergetic efficiency and irreversibility rate were observed around equipment in the methanol fuelled system but with lower performance when compared with the methane fuelled process configuration. On the basis of overall exergetic efficiency and lost work, the methanol system was more efficient with lower irreversibility rate of 547.27 kJ/s and exergetic efficiency of 34.44% in comparison with the methane

Economic modeling of surgical disease: a measure of public health interventions.

Science.gov (United States)

Corlew, D Scott

2013-07-01

The measurement of the burden of disease and the interventions that address that burden can be done in various units. Reducing these measures to the common denominator of economic units (i.e., currency) enables comparison with other health entities, interventions, and even other fields. Economic assessment is complex, however, because of the multifactorial components of what constitutes health and what constitutes health interventions, as well as the coupling of those data to economic means. To perform economic modeling in a meaningful manner, it is necessary to: (1) define the health problem to be addressed; (2) define the intervention to be assessed; (3) define a measure of the effect of the health entity with and without the intervention (which includes defining the counterfactual); and (4) determine the appropriate method of converting the health effect to economics. This paper discusses technical aspects of how economic modeling can be done both of disease entities and of interventions. Two examples of economic modeling applied to surgical problems are then given.

Are transnational tobacco companies’ market access strategies linked to economic development models? A case study of South Korea

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Sungkyu; Holden, Chris; Lee, Kelley

2013-01-01

Transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) have used varied strategies to access previously closed markets. Using TTCs’ efforts to enter the South Korean market from the late 1980s as a case study, this article asks whether there are common patterns in these strategies that relate to the broader economic development models adopted by targeted countries. An analytical review of the existing literature on TTCs’ efforts to access emerging markets was conducted to develop hypotheses relating TTCs’ strategies to countries’ economic development models. A case study of Korea was then undertaken based on analysis of internal tobacco industry documents. Findings were consistent with the hypothesis that TTCs’ strategies in Korea were linked to Korea’s export-oriented economic development model and its hostile attitude toward foreign investment. A fuller understanding of TTCs’ strategies for expansion globally can be derived by locating them within the economic development models of specific countries or regions. Of foremost importance is the need for governments to carefully balance economic and public health policies when considering liberalisation. PMID:23327486

Dynamic ecological-economic modeling approach for management of shellfish aquaculture

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Nobre, AM

2008-02-01

Full Text Available The objective of this report is to conceptualize ecological and economic interactions in mariculture; to implement a dynamic ecological-economic model in order to: simulate the socio-economics of aquaculture production, simulate its effects...

A finite element model for estimating the techno-economic performance of the building-integrated photovoltaic blind

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Hyo Seon; Koo, Choongwan; Hong, Taehoon; Oh, Jeongyoon; Jeong, Kwangbok

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A FEM was developed to estimate the techno-economic performance of the BIPB. • The mean absolute percentage error of the FEM_4_-_n_o_d_eBIPB was determined to be 4.54%. • In implementing the BIPB with the GC_i_n_c_l_._S_R_E_C plan, it was superior to the others. • Users can understand the operating mechanism of the proposed model (FEM_4_-_n_o_d_eBIPB). • The proposed model can be extended to any other country in the global environment. - Abstract: This study aims to develop the four-node-based finite element model for estimating the techno-economic performance of the building-integrated photovoltaic blind (FEM_4_-_n_o_d_eBIPB), which can be used by decision-maker in the early design phase. In developing the proposed model, this study uses various research methodologies such as energy simulation, finite element method, life cycle cost analysis, policy analysis, and visual basic application. Compared to the simulation results, the mean absolute percentage error of the proposed model was determined to be 4.54%, showing that the prediction accuracy of the proposed model was found to be excellent. Furthermore, the practical application was conducted for the ‘S’ elementary school facility in South Korea, which allows potential readers to easily and clearly understand the operating mechanism of the proposed model as well as its usability and extendability. The proposed model can be used to conduct the detailed analysis of the techno-economic performance of the BIPB by the type of utilization plan and to determine the optimal strategy for maximizing the value of the investment. Furthermore, the proposed research framework can be extended to any other technology, industry, and country in the global environment.

An Alternative Theoretical Model for Economic Reforms in Africa ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper offers an alternative model for economic reforms in Africa. It proposes that Africa can still get on the pathway of sustained economic growth if economic reforms can focus on a key variable, namely, the price of non-tradables. Prices of non-tradables are generally less in Africa than in advanced economies, and the ...

An object-oriented approach to energy-economic modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wise, M.A.; Fox, J.A.; Sands, R.D.

1993-12-01

In this paper, the authors discuss the experiences in creating an object-oriented economic model of the U.S. energy and agriculture markets. After a discussion of some central concepts, they provide an overview of the model, focusing on the methodology of designing an object-oriented class hierarchy specification based on standard microeconomic production functions. The evolution of the model from the class definition stage to programming it in C++, a standard object-oriented programming language, will be detailed. The authors then discuss the main differences between writing the object-oriented program versus a procedure-oriented program of the same model. Finally, they conclude with a discussion of the advantages and limitations of the object-oriented approach based on the experience in building energy-economic models with procedure-oriented approaches and languages.

Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

Science.gov (United States)

Grames, Johanna; Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia; Grass, Dieter; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

2016-04-01

Recently socio-hydrology models have been proposed to analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters such as floods. Complementary to these descriptive models, we develop a dynamic optimization model, where the inter-temporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This interdisciplinary approach matches with the goals of Panta Rhei i.e. to understand feedbacks between hydrology and society. It enables new perspectives but also shows limitations of each discipline. Young scientists need mentors from various scientific backgrounds to learn their different research approaches and how to best combine them such that interdisciplinary scientific work is also accepted by different science communities. In our socio-hydrology model we apply a macro-economic decision framework to a long-term flood-scenario. We assume a standard macro-economic growth model where agents derive utility from consumption and output depends on physical capital that can be accumulated through investment. To this framework we add the occurrence of flooding events which will destroy part of the capital. We identify two specific periodic long term solutions and denote them rich and poor economies. Whereas rich economies can afford to invest in flood defense and therefore avoid flood damage and develop high living standards, poor economies prefer consumption instead of investing in flood defense capital and end up facing flood damages every time the water level rises. Nevertheless, they manage to sustain at least a low level of physical capital. We identify optimal investment strategies and compare simulations with more frequent and more intense high water level events.

Analysis of the industrial sector representation in the Fossil2 energy-economic model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wise, M.A.; Woodruff, M.G.; Ashton, W.B.

1992-08-01

The Fossil2 energy-economic model is used by the US Department of Energy (DOE) for a variety of energy and environmental policy analyses. A number of improvements to the model are under way or are being considered. This report was prepared by the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) to provide a clearer understanding of the current industrial sector module of Fossil2 and to explore strategies for improving it. The report includes a detailed description of the structure and decision logic of the industrial sector module, along with results from several simulation exercises to demonstrate the behavior of the module in different policy scenarios and under different values of key model parameters. The cases were run with the Fossil2 model at PNL using the National Energy Strategy Actions Case of 1991 as the point of departure. The report also includes a discussion of suggested industrial sector module improvements. These improvements include changes in the way the current model is used; on- and off-line adjustments to some of the model's parameters; and significant changes to include more detail on the industrial processes, technologies, and regions of the country being modeled. The potential benefits and costs of these changes are also discussed

Economic decision-models for climate adaptation: a survey; Ekonomiska verktyg som beslutsstoed i klimatanpassningsarbetet: en metodoeversikt

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kaagebro, Elin; Vredin Johansson, Maria

2008-05-15

Several of the adaptations to the climate change we are about to experience will occur successively and voluntarily in response to the climate change experienced. In many cases these adaptations will work perfectly but, for investments and activities with relatively long life-times (say more than 25 years) and for investments and activities that are sensitive to climate extremes, climate change requires increased planning and foresight. In these situations economic decision models can aid the decision-makers through providing well-founded bases for the decisions, as well as tools for prioritizations. In this report we describe the most common economic decision-models: cost-benefit analysis (CBA), cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and multi-criteria analysis (MCA). The descriptions will form a foundation for the continuing work on generating tools that can be useful for local decision-makers in their pursuit of coping with climate change within the Climatools programme

Models of economic geography: dynamics, estimation and policy evaluation

OpenAIRE

Knaap, Thijs

2004-01-01

In this thesis we look at economic geography models from a number of angles. We started by placing the theory in a context of preceding theories, both earlier work on spatial economics and other children of the monopolistic competition ‘revolution.’ Next, we looked at the theoretical properties of these models, especially when we allow firms to have different demand functions for intermediate goods. We estimated the model using a dataset on US states, and computed a number of counterfactuals....

Linking Simple Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector AutoRegressive Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Niels Framroze

This paper attempts to clarify the connection between simple economic theory models and the approach of the Cointegrated Vector-Auto-Regressive model (CVAR). By considering (stylized) examples of simple static equilibrium models, it is illustrated in detail, how the theoretical model and its stru....... Further fundamental extensions and advances to more sophisticated theory models, such as those related to dynamics and expectations (in the structural relations) are left for future papers......This paper attempts to clarify the connection between simple economic theory models and the approach of the Cointegrated Vector-Auto-Regressive model (CVAR). By considering (stylized) examples of simple static equilibrium models, it is illustrated in detail, how the theoretical model and its......, it is demonstrated how other controversial hypotheses such as Rational Expectations can be formulated directly as restrictions on the CVAR-parameters. A simple example of a "Neoclassical synthetic" AS-AD model is also formulated. Finally, the partial- general equilibrium distinction is related to the CVAR as well...

Techno-economic analysis for the evaluation of three UCG synthesis gas end use approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Nakaten, Natalie; Kempka, Thomas; Burchart-Korol, Dorota; Krawczyk, Piotr; Kapusta, Krzysztof; Stańczyk, Krzysztof

2016-04-01

Underground coal gasification (UCG) enables the utilization of coal reserves that are economically not exploitable because of complex geological boundary conditions. In the present study we investigate UCG as a potential economic approach for conversion of deep-seated coals into a synthesis gas and its application within three different utilization options. Related to geological boundary conditions and the chosen gasification agent, UCG synthesis gas composes of varying methane, hydrogen, nitrogen, carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide amounts. In accordance to its calorific value, the processed UCG synthesis gas can be utilized in different manners, as for electricity generation in a combined cycle power plant or for feedstock production making use of its various chemical components. In the present study we analyze UCG synthesis gas utilization economics in the context of clean electricity generation with an integrated carbon capture and storage process (CCS) as well as synthetic fuel and fertilizer production (Kempka et al., 2010) based on a gas composition achieved during an in situ UCG trial in the Wieczorek Mine. Hereby, we also consider chemical feedstock production in order to mitigate CO2 emissions. Within a sensitivity analysis of UCG synthesis gas calorific value variations, we produce a range of capital and operational expenditure bandwidths that allow for an economic assessment of different synthesis gas end use approaches. To carry out the integrated techno-economic assessment of the coupled systems and the sensitivity analysis, we adapted the techno-economic UCG-CCS model developed by Nakaten et al. (2014). Our techno-economic modeling results demonstrate that the calorific value has a high impact on the economics of UCG synthesis gas utilization. In the underlying study, the synthesis gas is not suitable for an economic competitive electricity generation, due to the relatively low calorific value of 4.5 MJ/Nm³. To be a profitable option for electricity

Examining the feasibility of an economic analysis of dyadic developmental psychotherapy for children with maltreatment associated psychiatric problems in the United Kingdom.

Science.gov (United States)

Boyer, Nicole R S; Boyd, Kathleen A; Turner-Halliday, Fiona; Watson, Nicholas; Minnis, Helen

2014-12-10

Children with maltreatment associated psychiatric problems are at increased risk of developing behavioural or mental health disorders. Dyadic Developmental Psychotherapy (DDP) was proposed as treatment for children with maltreatment histories in the USA, however, being new to the UK little is known of its effectiveness or cost-effectiveness. As part of an exploratory study, this paper explores the feasibility of undertaking economic analysis of DDP in the UK. Feasibility for economic analysis was determined by ensuring such analysis could meet key criteria for economic evaluation. Phone interviews were conducted with professionals (therapists trained and accredited or in the process of becoming accredited DDP practitioners). Three models were developed to represent alternative methods of DDP service delivery. Once appropriate comparators were determined, economic scenarios were constructed. Cost analyses were undertaken from a societal perspective. Finally, appropriate outcome measurement was explored through clinical opinion, literature and further discussions with clinical experts. Three DDP models were constructed: DDP Full-Basic, DDP Home-Based and DDP Long-Term. Two potential comparator interventions were identified and defined as Consultation with Carers and Individual Psychotherapy. Costs of intervention completion per case were estimated to be: £6,700 (DDP Full-Basic), £7,100 (Consultations with Carers), £7,200 (DDP Home-Based), £11,400 (Individual Psychotherapy) and £14,500 (DDP Long-Term). None of the models of service delivery were found to currently measure effectiveness consistently. The Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) was deemed an appropriate primary outcome measure, however, it does not cover all disorders DDP intends to treat and the SDQ is not a direct measure of health gain. Inclusion of quality of life measurement is required for comprehensive economic analysis. Economic analysis of DDP in the UK is feasible if vital next

From partial to total economic analysis. Five applications to environmental and energy economics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoffmann, T.

2006-05-04

The studies presented in this thesis address the consequences of market distortions of governmental policies - predominantly in the area of environmental and energy policy. The studies cover different economic aggregation levels: The first study aims at investigating firm-level effects. Thus, the results refer only to a small number of well-defined economic entities, e.g. electricity supply companies in Germany. Subsequently, issues - such as the evaluation of efficiency effects of the European Emissions Trading system - are addressed on a multi-sectoral and multi-regional level, but still only one market is considered. Thereupon, the scope of investigation is broadened by interactions of different markets - e.g. as in the case of the economic evaluation of renewable energy promotion strategies. Finally, a general equilibrium analysis of a European nuclear phase-out scenario covers all economic feed-backs on the national and international level. (orig.) 5.

Analysis of the environmental and economic indicators of the industrial enterprise

Science.gov (United States)

Mikhailov, V. G.; Kiseleva, T. V.

2018-05-01

In the paper the features of the analysis of the environmental and economic indicators of the industrial enterprise are considered. The purpose of the study is to improve the system of environmental and economic analysis at the enterprise for more accurate forecasting of its main environmental and economic indicators. The study of the main approaches to the implementation of environmental and economic analysis based on the corresponding systems of indicators with identification of the most significant factors was carried out. The main result of the study is the choice of a system for analyzing the environmental and economic indicators, maximally oriented to a specific enterprise, taking into account its production specific features. The practical significance of the study consists in the selection of an adequate system of indicators at enterprises to improve the effectiveness from preparation of an environmentally safe management decision.

Export and Economic Growth in the Case of the Manufacturing Industry: Panel Data Analysis of Developing Countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emine Kılavuz

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The correlation between growth in export and economic growth, which is called “Export-led Growth Hypothesis” in the literature, is still a current issue in both the theoretical and empirical literature. In the present study, the effect of different classifications of export and import on economic growth in 22 developing countries in the 1998–2006 period was tested based on two models, via panel data analysis. According to the results of the first model, the analysis of which included variables such as high and low-tech manufacturing industry exports, investment and population, it was found that only two variables, high-tech manufacturing industry export and investment, have a positive and significant effect on growth. In addition to the first model which included the analysis of all variables, the second model investigated the effect of high and low-tech manufacturing industry imports on growth. The findings revealed that only high-tech manufacturing industry export, investment and low-tech manufacturing industry import have a positive and significant effect on growth.

Petroleum Refinery Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model User Reference Guide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goldberg, Marshall [MRG and Associates, Nevada City, CA (United States)

2013-12-31

The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models, developed through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), are user-friendly tools utilized to estimate the economic impacts at the local level of constructing and operating fuel and power generation projects for a range of conventional and renewable energy technologies. The JEDI Petroleum Refinery Model User Reference Guide was developed to assist users in employing and understanding the model. This guide provides information on the model's underlying methodology, as well as the parameters and references used to develop the cost data utilized in the model. This guide also provides basic instruction on model add-in features, operation of the model, and a discussion of how the results should be interpreted. Based on project-specific inputs from the user, the model estimates job creation, earning and output (total economic activity) for a given petroleum refinery. This includes the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts to the local economy associated with the refinery's construction and operation phases. Project cost and job data used in the model are derived from the most current cost estimations available. Local direct and indirect economic impacts are estimated using economic multipliers derived from IMPLAN software. By determining the regional economic impacts and job creation for a proposed refinery, the JEDI Petroleum Refinery model can be used to field questions about the added value refineries may bring to the local community.

An economic analysis of communal goat production.

Science.gov (United States)

Sebel, P J; McCrindle, C M E; Webb, E C

2004-03-01

The economic impact of different extension messages used was calculated using enterprise budgeting (gross margin analysis). Input data were gleaned from the literature, from participatory appraisals, as well as a field study, spanning 12 months, of small-scale communal goat farming systems in Jericho in the Odi District of North West Province. The number of offspring weaned per annum, as a proportion of does owned, was selected as the desired output for analysis. This study has shown that small-scale communal goat farmers are not adopting or implementing extension messages to improve production capacity. In South Africa the majority of goats are slaughtered in the informal sector. If the informal sector is to be persuaded to market goats commercially through formal channels, then knowledge of the economics of goat farming on communal lands should be provided. The economic aspects of extension messages are probably an important factor in determining acceptance and sustainability yet appear to be seldom investigated. The probable reason for lack of adoption of standard extension messages, which promote improved nutrition, parasite control, vaccination and treatment of goats, was economic. In other words, the so-called 'poor management practices' used by communal farmers appeared to be economically more profitable than the 'good management practices' suggested to increase production. The price of communal goats was not related to their mass. A higher level of inputs would probably have resulted in a heavier kid, however it was established that this would not have influenced the price received as a majority of the goats were slaughtered for ritual purposes where age, colour and sex were more important to the purchaser than body mass. It is standard practice in commercial farming systems to evaluate the economic benefits of all management practices before they are implemented. Production animal veterinarians use veterinary economics to compare different scenarios to

An economic analysis of communal goat production