Dynamic strains for earthquake source characterization

Science.gov (United States)

Barbour, Andrew J.; Crowell, Brendan W

2017-01-01

Strainmeters measure elastodynamic deformation associated with earthquakes over a broad frequency band, with detection characteristics that complement traditional instrumentation, but they are commonly used to study slow transient deformation along active faults and at subduction zones, for example. Here, we analyze dynamic strains at Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) borehole strainmeters (BSM) associated with 146 local and regional earthquakes from 2004–2014, with magnitudes from M 4.5 to 7.2. We find that peak values in seismic strain can be predicted from a general regression against distance and magnitude, with improvements in accuracy gained by accounting for biases associated with site–station effects and source–path effects, the latter exhibiting the strongest influence on the regression coefficients. To account for the influence of these biases in a general way, we include crustal‐type classifications from the CRUST1.0 global velocity model, which demonstrates that high‐frequency strain data from the PBO BSM network carry information on crustal structure and fault mechanics: earthquakes nucleating offshore on the Blanco fracture zone, for example, generate consistently lower dynamic strains than earthquakes around the Sierra Nevada microplate and in the Salton trough. Finally, we test our dynamic strain prediction equations on the 2011 M 9 Tohoku‐Oki earthquake, specifically continuous strain records derived from triangulation of 137 high‐rate Global Navigation Satellite System Earth Observation Network stations in Japan. Moment magnitudes inferred from these data and the strain model are in agreement when Global Positioning System subnetworks are unaffected by spatial aliasing.

Analysis of Earthquake Source Spectra in Salton Trough

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, X.; Shearer, P. M.

2009-12-01

Previous studies of the source spectra of small earthquakes in southern California show that average Brune-type stress drops vary among different regions, with particularly low stress drops observed in the Salton Trough (Shearer et al., 2006). The Salton Trough marks the southern end of the San Andreas Fault and is prone to earthquake swarms, some of which are driven by aseismic creep events (Lohman and McGuire, 2007). In order to learn the stress state and understand the physical mechanisms of swarms and slow slip events, we analyze the source spectra of earthquakes in this region. We obtain Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN) waveforms for earthquakes from 1977 to 2009 archived at the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) data center, which includes over 17,000 events. After resampling the data to a uniform 100 Hz sample rate, we compute spectra for both signal and noise windows for each seismogram, and select traces with a P-wave signal-to-noise ratio greater than 5 between 5 Hz and 15 Hz. Using selected displacement spectra, we isolate the source spectra from station terms and path effects using an empirical Green’s function approach. From the corrected source spectra, we compute corner frequencies and estimate moments and stress drops. Finally we analyze spatial and temporal variations in stress drop in the Salton Trough and compare them with studies of swarms and creep events to assess the evolution of faulting and stress in the region. References: Lohman, R. B., and J. J. McGuire (2007), Earthquake swarms driven by aseismic creep in the Salton Trough, California, J. Geophys. Res., 112, B04405, doi:10.1029/2006JB004596 Shearer, P. M., G. A. Prieto, and E. Hauksson (2006), Comprehensive analysis of earthquake source spectra in southern California, J. Geophys. Res., 111, B06303, doi:10.1029/2005JB003979.

Source characteristics of the Nicaraguan tsunami earthquake of September 2, 1992

Science.gov (United States)

Ide, Satoshi; Imamura, Fumihiko; Yoshida, Yasuhiro; Abe, Katsuyuki

1993-05-01

The source mechanisms of the Nicaraguan tsunami earthquake of September 2, 1992 is studied via waveforms of body waves and surface waves recorded on global broadband seismographs. The possibility of a single force is ruled out from radiation patterns and the amplitude ratio of Rayleigh and Love waves. The main shock is interpreted as low-angle thrust fault with strike of 302 deg, dip of 16 deg, and slip of 87 deg, the Cocos plate underthrusting beneath the Caribbean plate. The seismic moment from surface wave analysis is 3.0 x 10 exp 20 Nm. The source dimension is estimated to be 200 x 100 km from the aftershock area. The inversion results of body waves suggest bilateral rupture with rupture velocity as low as 1.5 km/s and duration time of about 100 s. The source process time is unusually long, from which it is inferred that the associated crustal deformation has a long time constant.

The Source Inversion Validation (SIV) Initiative: A Collaborative Study on Uncertainty Quantification in Earthquake Source Inversions

Science.gov (United States)

Mai, P. M.; Schorlemmer, D.; Page, M.

2012-04-01

Earthquake source inversions image the spatio-temporal rupture evolution on one or more fault planes using seismic and/or geodetic data. Such studies are critically important for earthquake seismology in general, and for advancing seismic hazard analysis in particular, as they reveal earthquake source complexity and help (i) to investigate earthquake mechanics; (ii) to develop spontaneous dynamic rupture models; (iii) to build models for generating rupture realizations for ground-motion simulations. In applications (i - iii), the underlying finite-fault source models are regarded as "data" (input information), but their uncertainties are essentially unknown. After all, source models are obtained from solving an inherently ill-posed inverse problem to which many a priori assumptions and uncertain observations are applied. The Source Inversion Validation (SIV) project is a collaborative effort to better understand the variability between rupture models for a single earthquake (as manifested in the finite-source rupture model database) and to develop robust uncertainty quantification for earthquake source inversions. The SIV project highlights the need to develop a long-standing and rigorous testing platform to examine the current state-of-the-art in earthquake source inversion, and to develop and test novel source inversion approaches. We will review the current status of the SIV project, and report the findings and conclusions of the recent workshops. We will briefly discuss several source-inversion methods, how they treat uncertainties in data, and assess the posterior model uncertainty. Case studies include initial forward-modeling tests on Green's function calculations, and inversion results for synthetic data from spontaneous dynamic crack-like strike-slip earthquake on steeply dipping fault, embedded in a layered crustal velocity-density structure.

Source parameters of the Bay of Bengal earthquake of 21 May 2014 and related seismotectonics of 85°E and 90°E ridges

Science.gov (United States)

Prakash, Rajesh; Prajapati, Sanjay Kumar; Srivastava, Hari Narain

2018-01-01

Source parameters of the Bay of Bengal earthquake of 21 May 2014 have been studied using full waveform inversion. Its source mechanism thus determined the orientation of the strike slip faulting as NW-SE/NE-SW. The occurrence of past earthquakes along the NE-SW nodal plane suggested its preference as the main fault which could result from the transmission of stresses from the Indian plate boundary. High stress drop of this earthquake (216 bar) is attributed to its location in the intraplate region, strike slip faulting and focus in the colder upper mantle. Comparison of the stress drop of deeper focus Hindukush earthquakes with that of the Bay of Bengal earthquake showed a smaller felt radius due to fractured lithosphere in the Himalayas vis-a-vis more efficient propagation of seismic waves in the peninsular region from the source region of this recent earthquake. The seismological evidence presented for the 85°E and 90°E ridges shows the predominance of strike slip faulting with thrusting on both the ridges. Integrating their source mechanism with that of the May 2014 earthquake, it could be inferred that the Bay of Bengal region (excluding Andaman Sumatra subduction zone) is characterised predominantly by strike slip faulting in the region north of latitude 20°N and strike slip with thrusting in the remaining portion.

Crowd-Sourced Global Earthquake Early Warning

Science.gov (United States)

Minson, S. E.; Brooks, B. A.; Glennie, C. L.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Owen, S. E.; Iannucci, B. A.; Hauser, D. L.

2014-12-01

Although earthquake early warning (EEW) has shown great promise for reducing loss of life and property, it has only been implemented in a few regions due, in part, to the prohibitive cost of building the required dense seismic and geodetic networks. However, many cars and consumer smartphones, tablets, laptops, and similar devices contain low-cost versions of the same sensors used for earthquake monitoring. If a workable EEW system could be implemented based on either crowd-sourced observations from consumer devices or very inexpensive networks of instruments built from consumer-quality sensors, EEW coverage could potentially be expanded worldwide. Controlled tests of several accelerometers and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers typically found in consumer devices show that, while they are significantly noisier than scientific-grade instruments, they are still accurate enough to capture displacements from moderate and large magnitude earthquakes. The accuracy of these sensors varies greatly depending on the type of data collected. Raw coarse acquisition (C/A) code GPS data are relatively noisy. These observations have a surface displacement detection threshold approaching ~1 m and would thus only be useful in large Mw 8+ earthquakes. However, incorporating either satellite-based differential corrections or using a Kalman filter to combine the raw GNSS data with low-cost acceleration data (such as from a smartphone) decreases the noise dramatically. These approaches allow detection thresholds as low as 5 cm, potentially enabling accurate warnings for earthquakes as small as Mw 6.5. Simulated performance tests show that, with data contributed from only a very small fraction of the population, a crowd-sourced EEW system would be capable of warning San Francisco and San Jose of a Mw 7 rupture on California's Hayward fault and could have accurately issued both earthquake and tsunami warnings for the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake.

Accounting for uncertain fault geometry in earthquake source inversions - I: theory and simplified application

Science.gov (United States)

Ragon, Théa; Sladen, Anthony; Simons, Mark

2018-05-01

The ill-posed nature of earthquake source estimation derives from several factors including the quality and quantity of available observations and the fidelity of our forward theory. Observational errors are usually accounted for in the inversion process. Epistemic errors, which stem from our simplified description of the forward problem, are rarely dealt with despite their potential to bias the estimate of a source model. In this study, we explore the impact of uncertainties related to the choice of a fault geometry in source inversion problems. The geometry of a fault structure is generally reduced to a set of parameters, such as position, strike and dip, for one or a few planar fault segments. While some of these parameters can be solved for, more often they are fixed to an uncertain value. We propose a practical framework to address this limitation by following a previously implemented method exploring the impact of uncertainties on the elastic properties of our models. We develop a sensitivity analysis to small perturbations of fault dip and position. The uncertainties in fault geometry are included in the inverse problem under the formulation of the misfit covariance matrix that combines both prediction and observation uncertainties. We validate this approach with the simplified case of a fault that extends infinitely along strike, using both Bayesian and optimization formulations of a static inversion. If epistemic errors are ignored, predictions are overconfident in the data and source parameters are not reliably estimated. In contrast, inclusion of uncertainties in fault geometry allows us to infer a robust posterior source model. Epistemic uncertainties can be many orders of magnitude larger than observational errors for great earthquakes (Mw > 8). Not accounting for uncertainties in fault geometry may partly explain observed shallow slip deficits for continental earthquakes. Similarly, ignoring the impact of epistemic errors can also bias estimates of

Possible deep fault slip preceding the 2004 Parkfield earthquake, inferred from detailed observations of tectonic tremor

Science.gov (United States)

Shelly, David R.

2009-01-01

Earthquake predictability depends, in part, on the degree to which sudden slip is preceded by slow aseismic slip. Recently, observations of deep tremor have enabled inferences of deep slow slip even when detection by other means is not possible, but these data are limited to certain areas and mostly the last decade. The region near Parkfield, California, provides a unique convergence of several years of high-quality tremor data bracketing a moderate earthquake, the 2004 magnitude 6.0 event. Here, I present detailed observations of tectonic tremor from mid-2001 through 2008 that indicate deep fault slip both before and after the Parkfield earthquake that cannot be detected with surface geodetic instruments. While there is no obvious short-term precursor, I find unidirectional tremor migration accompanied by elevated tremor rates in the 3 months prior to the earthquake, which suggests accelerated creep on the fault ∼16 km beneath the eventual earthquake hypocenter.

Strong-motion characteristics and source process during the Suruga Bay earthquake in 2009 through observed records on rock sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shiba, Yoshiaki; Sato, Hiroaki; Kuriyama, Masayuki

2010-01-01

On 11 August 2009, a moderate earthquake of M 6.5 occurred in the Suruga Bay region, south of Shizuoka prefecture. During this event, JMA Seismic Intensity reached 6 lower in several cities around the hypocenter, and at Hamaoka nuclear power plant of Chubu Electric Power reactors were automatically shutdown due to large ground motions. Though the epicenter is located at the eastern edge of source area for the assumed great Tokai earthquake of M 8, this event is classified into the intra-plate (intra-slab) earthquake, due to its focal depth lower than that of the plate boundary and fault geometry supposed from the moment tensor solution. Dense strong-motion observation network has been deployed mainly on the rock outcrops by our institute around the source area, and the waveform data of the main shock and several aftershocks were obtained at 13 stations within 100 km from the hypocenter. The observed peak ground motions and velocity response spectral amplitudes are both obviously larger than the empirical attenuation relations derived from the inland and plate-boundary earthquake data, which displays the characteristics of the intra-slab earthquake faulting. Estimated acceleration source spectra of the main shock also exhibit the short period level about 1.7 times larger than the average of those for past events, and it corresponds with the additional term in the attenuation curve of the peak ground acceleration for the intra-plate earthquake. Detailed source process of the main shock is inferred using the inversion technique. The initial source model is assumed to be composed of two distinct fault planes according to the minute aftershock distribution. Estimated source model shows that large slip occurred near the hypocenter and at the boundary region between two fault planes where the rupture transfers from primary to secondary fault. Furthermore the broadband source inversion using velocity motions in the frequency up to 5 Hz demonstrates the high effective

Sensitivity of Earthquake Loss Estimates to Source Modeling Assumptions and Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Reasenberg, Paul A.; Shostak, Nan; Terwilliger, Sharon

2006-01-01

Introduction: This report explores how uncertainty in an earthquake source model may affect estimates of earthquake economic loss. Specifically, it focuses on the earthquake source model for the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) created by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities. The loss calculations are made using HAZUS-MH, a publicly available computer program developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for calculating future losses from earthquakes, floods and hurricanes within the United States. The database built into HAZUS-MH includes a detailed building inventory, population data, data on transportation corridors, bridges, utility lifelines, etc. Earthquake hazard in the loss calculations is based upon expected (median value) ground motion maps called ShakeMaps calculated for the scenario earthquake sources defined in WGCEP. The study considers the effect of relaxing certain assumptions in the WG02 model, and explores the effect of hypothetical reductions in epistemic uncertainty in parts of the model. For example, it addresses questions such as what would happen to the calculated loss distribution if the uncertainty in slip rate in the WG02 model were reduced (say, by obtaining additional geologic data)? What would happen if the geometry or amount of aseismic slip (creep) on the region's faults were better known? And what would be the effect on the calculated loss distribution if the time-dependent earthquake probability were better constrained, either by eliminating certain probability models or by better constraining the inherent randomness in earthquake recurrence? The study does not consider the effect of reducing uncertainty in the hazard introduced through models of attenuation and local site characteristics, although these may have a comparable or greater effect than does source-related uncertainty. Nor does it consider sources of uncertainty in the building inventory, building fragility curves, and other assumptions

A new Bayesian Inference-based Phase Associator for Earthquake Early Warning

Science.gov (United States)

Meier, Men-Andrin; Heaton, Thomas; Clinton, John; Wiemer, Stefan

2013-04-01

State of the art network-based Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems can provide warnings for large magnitude 7+ earthquakes. Although regions in the direct vicinity of the epicenter will not receive warnings prior to damaging shaking, real-time event characterization is available before the destructive S-wave arrival across much of the strongly affected region. In contrast, in the case of the more frequent medium size events, such as the devastating 1994 Mw6.7 Northridge, California, earthquake, providing timely warning to the smaller damage zone is more difficult. For such events the "blind zone" of current systems (e.g. the CISN ShakeAlert system in California) is similar in size to the area over which severe damage occurs. We propose a faster and more robust Bayesian inference-based event associator, that in contrast to the current standard associators (e.g. Earthworm Binder), is tailored to EEW and exploits information other than only phase arrival times. In particular, the associator potentially allows for reliable automated event association with as little as two observations, which, compared to the ShakeAlert system, would speed up the real-time characterizations by about ten seconds and thus reduce the blind zone area by up to 80%. We compile an extensive data set of regional and teleseismic earthquake and noise waveforms spanning a wide range of earthquake magnitudes and tectonic regimes. We pass these waveforms through a causal real-time filterbank with passband filters between 0.1 and 50Hz, and, updating every second from the event detection, extract the maximum amplitudes in each frequency band. Using this dataset, we define distributions of amplitude maxima in each passband as a function of epicentral distance and magnitude. For the real-time data, we pass incoming broadband and strong motion waveforms through the same filterbank and extract an evolving set of maximum amplitudes in each passband. We use the maximum amplitude distributions to check

Automated Determination of Magnitude and Source Length of Large Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, D.; Kawakatsu, H.; Zhuang, J.; Mori, J. J.; Maeda, T.; Tsuruoka, H.; Zhao, X.

2017-12-01

Rapid determination of earthquake magnitude is of importance for estimating shaking damages, and tsunami hazards. However, due to the complexity of source process, accurately estimating magnitude for great earthquakes in minutes after origin time is still a challenge. Mw is an accurate estimate for large earthquakes. However, calculating Mw requires the whole wave trains including P, S, and surface phases, which takes tens of minutes to reach stations at tele-seismic distances. To speed up the calculation, methods using W phase and body wave are developed for fast estimating earthquake sizes. Besides these methods that involve Green's Functions and inversions, there are other approaches that use empirically simulated relations to estimate earthquake magnitudes, usually for large earthquakes. The nature of simple implementation and straightforward calculation made these approaches widely applied at many institutions such as the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, the Japan Meteorological Agency, and the USGS. Here we developed an approach that was originated from Hara [2007], estimating magnitude by considering P-wave displacement and source duration. We introduced a back-projection technique [Wang et al., 2016] instead to estimate source duration using array data from a high-sensitive seismograph network (Hi-net). The introduction of back-projection improves the method in two ways. Firstly, the source duration could be accurately determined by seismic array. Secondly, the results can be more rapidly calculated, and data derived from farther stations are not required. We purpose to develop an automated system for determining fast and reliable source information of large shallow seismic events based on real time data of a dense regional array and global data, for earthquakes that occur at distance of roughly 30°- 85° from the array center. This system can offer fast and robust estimates of magnitudes and rupture extensions of large earthquakes in 6 to 13 min (plus

Bayesian estimation of source parameters and associated Coulomb failure stress changes for the 2005 Fukuoka (Japan) Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Dutta, Rishabh; Jónsson, Sigurjón; Wang, Teng; Vasyura-Bathke, Hannes

2018-04-01

Several researchers have studied the source parameters of the 2005 Fukuoka (northwestern Kyushu Island, Japan) earthquake (Mw 6.6) using teleseismic, strong motion and geodetic data. However, in all previous studies, errors of the estimated fault solutions have been neglected, making it impossible to assess the reliability of the reported solutions. We use Bayesian inference to estimate the location, geometry and slip parameters of the fault and their uncertainties using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar and Global Positioning System data. The offshore location of the earthquake makes the fault parameter estimation challenging, with geodetic data coverage mostly to the southeast of the earthquake. To constrain the fault parameters, we use a priori constraints on the magnitude of the earthquake and the location of the fault with respect to the aftershock distribution and find that the estimated fault slip ranges from 1.5 to 2.5 m with decreasing probability. The marginal distributions of the source parameters show that the location of the western end of the fault is poorly constrained by the data whereas that of the eastern end, located closer to the shore, is better resolved. We propagate the uncertainties of the fault model and calculate the variability of Coulomb failure stress changes for the nearby Kego fault, located directly below Fukuoka city, showing that the main shock increased stress on the fault and brought it closer to failure.

Bayesian inference of earthquake parameters from buoy data using a polynomial chaos-based surrogate

KAUST Repository

Giraldi, Loic

2017-04-07

This work addresses the estimation of the parameters of an earthquake model by the consequent tsunami, with an application to the Chile 2010 event. We are particularly interested in the Bayesian inference of the location, the orientation, and the slip of an Okada-based model of the earthquake ocean floor displacement. The tsunami numerical model is based on the GeoClaw software while the observational data is provided by a single DARTⓇ buoy. We propose in this paper a methodology based on polynomial chaos expansion to construct a surrogate model of the wave height at the buoy location. A correlated noise model is first proposed in order to represent the discrepancy between the computational model and the data. This step is necessary, as a classical independent Gaussian noise is shown to be unsuitable for modeling the error, and to prevent convergence of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler. Second, the polynomial chaos model is subsequently improved to handle the variability of the arrival time of the wave, using a preconditioned non-intrusive spectral method. Finally, the construction of a reduced model dedicated to Bayesian inference is proposed. Numerical results are presented and discussed.

Multiple Spectral Ratio Analyses Reveal Earthquake Source Spectra of Small Earthquakes and Moment Magnitudes of Microearthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Uchide, T.; Imanishi, K.

2016-12-01

Spectral studies for macroscopic earthquake source parameters are helpful for characterizing earthquake rupture process and hence understanding earthquake source physics and fault properties. Those studies require us mute wave propagation path and site effects in spectra of seismograms to accentuate source effect. We have recently developed the multiple spectral ratio method [Uchide and Imanishi, BSSA, 2016] employing many empirical Green's function (EGF) events to reduce errors from the choice of EGF events. This method helps us estimate source spectra more accurately as well as moment ratios among reference and EGF events, which are useful to constrain the seismic moment of microearthquakes. First, we focus on earthquake source spectra. The source spectra have generally been thought to obey the omega-square model with single corner-frequency. However recent studies imply the existence of another corner frequency for some earthquakes. We analyzed small shallow inland earthquakes (3.5 multiple spectral ratio analyses. For 20000 microearthquakes in Fukushima Hamadori and northern Ibaraki prefecture area, we found that the JMA magnitudes (Mj) based on displacement or velocity amplitude are systematically below Mw. The slope of the Mj-Mw relation is 0.5 for Mj 5. We propose a fitting curve for the obtained relationship as Mw = (1/2)Mj + (1/2)(Mjγ + Mcorγ)1/γ+ c, where Mcor is a corner magnitude, γ determines the sharpness of the corner, and c denotes an offset. We obtained Mcor = 4.1, γ = 5.6, and c = -0.47 to fit the observation. The parameters are useful for characterizing the Mj-Mw relationship. This non-linear relationship affects the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter law. Quantitative discussions on b-values are affected by the definition of magnitude to use.

Inversion of GPS-measured coseismic displacements for source parameters of Taiwan earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, J. T.; Chang, W. L.; Hung, H. K.; Yu, W. C.

2016-12-01

We performed a method of determining earthquake location, focal mechanism, and centroid moment tensor by coseismic surface displacements from daily and high-rate GPS measurements. Unlike commonly used dislocation model where fault geometry is calculated nonlinearly, our method makes a point source approach to evaluate these parameters in a solid and efficient way without a priori fault information and can thus provide constrains to subsequent finite source modeling of fault slip. In this study, we focus on the resolving ability of GPS data for moderate (Mw=6.0 7.0) earthquakes in Taiwan, and four earthquakes were investigated in detail: the March 27 2013 Nantou (Mw=6.0), the June 2 2013 Nantou (Mw=6.3) , the October 31 2013 Ruisui (Mw=6.3), and the March 31 2002 Hualien (ML=6.8) earthquakes. All these events were recorded by the Taiwan continuous GPS network with data sampling rates of 30-second and 1 Hz, where the Mw6.3 Ruisui earthquake was additionally recorded by another local GPS network with a sampling rate of 20 Hz. Our inverted focal mechanisms of all these earthquakes are consistent with the results of GCMT and USGS that evaluates source parameters by dynamic information from seismic waves. We also successfully resolved source parameters of the Mw6.3 Ruisui earthquake within only 10 seconds following the earthquake occurrence, demonstrating the potential of high-rate GPS data on earthquake early warning and real-time determination of earthquake source parameters.

Real-time earthquake source imaging: An offline test for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yong; Wang, Rongjiang; Zschau, Jochen; Parolai, Stefano; Dahm, Torsten

2014-05-01

In recent decades, great efforts have been expended in real-time seismology aiming at earthquake and tsunami early warning. One of the most important issues is the real-time assessment of earthquake rupture processes using near-field seismogeodetic networks. Currently, earthquake early warning systems are mostly based on the rapid estimate of P-wave magnitude, which contains generally large uncertainties and the known saturation problem. In the case of the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake, JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) released the first warning of the event with M7.2 after 25 s. The following updates of the magnitude even decreased to M6.3-6.6. Finally, the magnitude estimate stabilized at M8.1 after about two minutes. This led consequently to the underestimated tsunami heights. By using the newly developed Iterative Deconvolution and Stacking (IDS) method for automatic source imaging, we demonstrate an offline test for the real-time analysis of the strong-motion and GPS seismograms of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. The results show that we had been theoretically able to image the complex rupture process of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake automatically soon after or even during the rupture process. In general, what had happened on the fault could be robustly imaged with a time delay of about 30 s by using either the strong-motion (KiK-net) or the GPS (GEONET) real-time data. This implies that the new real-time source imaging technique is helpful to reduce false and missing warnings, and therefore should play an important role in future tsunami early warning and earthquake rapid response systems.

Long Period Source Characteristics of Great Earthquakes: diagnosing complexity

Science.gov (United States)

Rivera, L. A.; Kanamori, H.

2013-12-01

With the commonly used centroid moment tensor inversions, just one number represents the long period size of the event, the seismic moment Mo (or corresponding Mw). However, several recent studies have clearly demonstrated that this is not satisfactory, at least for some earthquakes. For example, for the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Is. Earthquake, the amplitudes of long-period normal modes indicated that the effective seismic moment increases from 4.0x1022 to 7.1x1022 N-m as the period increases from 300 to 1000 sec. For the 2009 Samoa Is. earthquake (Mw=8.1), the moment tensor was found to be strongly dependent on frequency because the source of this earthquake consists of at least 2 distinct events with very different mechanisms. It is possible that other large and great earthquakes may have similar complex characteristics, but with the standard moment tensor inversion with a single frequency band, we may not notice this easily. Here we investigate the possible frequency dependence of the moment tensor of large earthquakes by performing W phase inversions using teleseismic data and equally spaced narrow overlapping frequency bands. We investigate frequencies from 2.6 to 3.8 mHz. We focus on the variation with frequency of the scalar moment, the amount of non double couple and the focal mechanism. We apply this technique to 30 major events in the period 1994-2013 and use the results to detect source complexity. We class them in three groups according to the variability of the source parameters with frequency: Simple, Complex and Intermediate events and we discuss the correlation of the result of this approach with independent observations of source complexity.

Heterogeneous rupture in the great Cascadia earthquake of 1700 inferred from coastal subsidence estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Pei-Ling; Engelhart, Simon E.; Wang, Kelin; Hawkes, Andrea D.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Nelson, Alan R.; Witter, Robert C.

2013-01-01

Past earthquake rupture models used to explain paleoseismic estimates of coastal subsidence during the great A.D. 1700 Cascadia earthquake have assumed a uniform slip distribution along the megathrust. Here we infer heterogeneous slip for the Cascadia margin in A.D. 1700 that is analogous to slip distributions during instrumentally recorded great subduction earthquakes worldwide. The assumption of uniform distribution in previous rupture models was due partly to the large uncertainties of then available paleoseismic data used to constrain the models. In this work, we use more precise estimates of subsidence in 1700 from detailed tidal microfossil studies. We develop a 3-D elastic dislocation model that allows the slip to vary both along strike and in the dip direction. Despite uncertainties in the updip and downdip slip extensions, the more precise subsidence estimates are best explained by a model with along-strike slip heterogeneity, with multiple patches of high-moment release separated by areas of low-moment release. For example, in A.D. 1700, there was very little slip near Alsea Bay, Oregon (~44.4°N), an area that coincides with a segment boundary previously suggested on the basis of gravity anomalies. A probable subducting seamount in this area may be responsible for impeding rupture during great earthquakes. Our results highlight the need for more precise, high-quality estimates of subsidence or uplift during prehistoric earthquakes from the coasts of southern British Columbia, northern Washington (north of 47°N), southernmost Oregon, and northern California (south of 43°N), where slip distributions of prehistoric earthquakes are poorly constrained.

Bayesian Estimation of Source Parameters and Associated Coulomb Failure Stress Changes for the 2005 Fukuoka (Japan) Earthquake

KAUST Repository

Dutta, Rishabh

2017-12-20

Several researchers have studied the source parameters of the 2005 Fukuoka (northwestern Kyushu Island, Japan) earthquake (MW 6.6) using teleseismic, strong motion and geodetic data. However, in all previous studies, errors of the estimated fault solutions have been neglected, making it impossible to assess the reliability of the reported solutions. We use Bayesian inference to estimate the location, geometry and slip parameters of the fault and their uncertainties using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and Global Positioning System (GPS) data. The offshore location of the earthquake makes the fault parameter estimation challenging, with geodetic data coverage mostly to the southeast of the earthquake. To constrain the fault parameters, we use a priori constraints on the magnitude of the earthquake and the location of the fault with respect to the aftershock distribution and find that the estimated fault slip ranges from 1.5 m to 2.5 m with decreasing probability. The marginal distributions of the source parameters show that the location of the western end of the fault is poorly constrained by the data whereas that of the eastern end, located closer to the shore, is better resolved. We propagate the uncertainties of the fault model and calculate the variability of Coulomb failure stress changes for the nearby Kego fault, located directly below Fukuoka city, showing that the mainshock increased stress on the fault and brought it closer to failure.

Mechanism of High Frequency Shallow Earthquake Source in Mount Soputan, North Sulawesi

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yasa Suparman

2014-06-01

Full Text Available DOI: 10.17014/ijog.v6i3.122Moment tensor analysis had been conducted to understand the source mechanism of earthquakes in Soputan Volcano during October - November 2010 period. The record shows shallow earthquakes with frequency about 5 - 9 Hz. Polarity distribution of P-wave first onset indicates that the recorded earthquakes are predominated by earthquakes where almost at all stations have the same direction of P-wave first motions, and earthquakes with upward first motions.In this article, the source mechanism is described as the second derivative of moment tensor, approached with first motion amplitude inversion of P-wave at some seismic stations. The result of moment tensor decomposition are predominated by earthquakes with big percentage in ISO and CLVD component. Focal mechanism shows that the recorded earthquakes have the same strike in northeast-southwest direction with dip about 400 - 600. The sources of the high frequency shallow earthquakes are in the form of tensile-shear cracks or a combination between crack and tensile faulting.

The 21 August 2017 Ischia (Italy) Earthquake Source Model Inferred From Seismological, GPS, and DInSAR Measurements

Science.gov (United States)

De Novellis, V.; Carlino, S.; Castaldo, R.; Tramelli, A.; De Luca, C.; Pino, N. A.; Pepe, S.; Convertito, V.; Zinno, I.; De Martino, P.; Bonano, M.; Giudicepietro, F.; Casu, F.; Macedonio, G.; Manunta, M.; Cardaci, C.; Manzo, M.; Di Bucci, D.; Solaro, G.; Zeni, G.; Lanari, R.; Bianco, F.; Tizzani, P.

2018-03-01

The causative source of the first damaging earthquake instrumentally recorded in the Island of Ischia, occurred on 21 August 2017, has been studied through a multiparametric geophysical approach. In order to investigate the source geometry and kinematics we exploit seismological, Global Positioning System, and Sentinel-1 and COSMO-SkyMed differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar coseismic measurements. Our results indicate that the retrieved solutions from the geodetic data modeling and the seismological data are plausible; in particular, the best fit solution consists of an E-W striking, south dipping normal fault, with its center located at a depth of 800 m. Moreover, the retrieved causative fault is consistent with the rheological stratification of the crust in this zone. This study allows us to improve the knowledge of the volcano-tectonic processes occurring on the Island, which is crucial for a better assessment of the seismic risk in the area.

The 2016-2017 Central Italy Seismic Sequence: Source Complexity Inferred from Rupture Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Scognamiglio, L.; Tinti, E.; Casarotti, E.; Pucci, S.; Villani, F.; Cocco, M.; Magnoni, F.; Michelini, A.

2017-12-01

The Apennines have been struck by several seismic sequences in recent years, showing evidence of the activation of multiple segments of normal fault systems in a variable and, relatively short, time span, as in the case of the 1980 Irpinia earthquake (three shocks in 40 s), the 1997 Umbria-Marche sequence (four main shocks in 18 days) and the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake having three segments activated within a few weeks. The 2016-2017 central Apennines seismic sequence begin on August 24th with a MW 6.0 earthquake, which strike the region between Amatrice and Accumoli causing 299 fatalities. This earthquake ruptures a nearly 20 km long normal fault and shows a quite heterogeneous slip distribution. On October 26th, another main shock (MW 5.9) occurs near Visso extending the activated seismogenic area toward the NW. It is a double event rupturing contiguous patches on the fault segment of the normal fault system. Four days after the second main shock, on October 30th, a third earthquake (MW 6.5) occurs near Norcia, roughly midway between Accumoli and Visso. In this work we have inverted strong motion waveforms and GPS data to retrieve the source model of the MW 6.5 event with the aim of interpreting the rupture process in the framework of this complex sequence of moderate magnitude earthquakes. We noted that some preliminary attempts to model the slip distribution of the October 30th main shock using a single fault plane oriented along the Apennines did not provide convincing fits to the observed waveforms. In addition, the deformation pattern inferred from satellite observations suggested the activation of a multi-fault structure, that is coherent to the complexity and the extension of the geological surface deformation. We investigated the role of multi-fault ruptures and we found that this event revealed an extraordinary complexity of the rupture geometry and evolution: the coseismic rupture propagated almost simultaneously on a normal fault and on a blind fault

Comprehensive analysis of earthquake source spectra in southern California

OpenAIRE

Shearer, Peter M.; Prieto, Germán A.; Hauksson, Egill

2006-01-01

We compute and analyze P wave spectra from earthquakes in southern California between 1989 and 2001 using a method that isolates source-, receiver-, and path-dependent terms. We correct observed source spectra for attenuation using both fixed and spatially varying empirical Green's function methods. Estimated Brune-type stress drops for over 60,000 M_L = 1.5 to 3.1 earthquakes range from 0.2 to 20 MPa with no dependence on moment or local b value. Median computed stress drop increases with de...

Non-Stationary Modelling and Simulation of Near-Source Earthquake Ground Motion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skjærbæk, P. S.; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Fouskitakis, G. N.

1997-01-01

This paper is concerned with modelling and simulation of near-source earthquake ground motion. Recent studies have revealed that these motions show heavy non-stationary behaviour with very low frequencies dominating parts of the earthquake sequence. Modeling and simulation of this behaviour...... by an epicentral distance of 16 km and measured during the 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake in California (U .S .A.). The results of the study indicate that while all three approaches can successfully predict near-source ground motions, the Neural Network based one gives somewhat poorer simulation results....

Non-Stationary Modelling and Simulation of Near-Source Earthquake Ground Motion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skjærbæk, P. S.; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Fouskitakis, G. N.

This paper is concerned with modelling and simulation of near-source earthquake ground motion. Recent studies have revealed that these motions show heavy non-stationary behaviour with very low frequencies dominating parts of the earthquake sequence. Modelling and simulation of this behaviour...... by an epicentral distance of 16 km and measured during the 1979 Imperial valley earthquake in California (USA). The results of the study indicate that while all three approaches can succesfully predict near-source ground motions, the Neural Network based one gives somewhat poorer simulation results....

Relations between source parameters for large Persian earthquakes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Majid Nemati

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Empirical relationships for magnitude scales and fault parameters were produced using 436 Iranian intraplate earthquakes of recently regional databases since the continental events represent a large portion of total seismicity of Iran. The relations between different source parameters of the earthquakes were derived using input information which has usefully been provided from the databases after 1900. Suggested equations for magnitude scales relate the body-wave, surface-wave as well as local magnitude scales to scalar moment of the earthquakes. Also, dependence of source parameters as surface and subsurface rupture length and maximum surface displacement on the moment magnitude for some well documented earthquakes was investigated. For meeting this aim, ordinary linear regression procedures were employed for all relations. Our evaluations reveal a fair agreement between obtained relations and equations described in other worldwide and regional works in literature. The M0-mb and M0-MS equations are correlated well to the worldwide relations. Also, both M0-MS and M0-ML relations have a good agreement with regional studies in Taiwan. The equations derived from this study mainly confirm the results of the global investigations about rupture length of historical and instrumental events. However, some relations like MW-MN and MN-ML which are remarkably unlike to available regional works (e.g., American and Canadian were also found.

The Earthquake‐Source Inversion Validation (SIV) Project

KAUST Repository

Mai, Paul Martin

2016-04-27

Finite-fault earthquake source inversions infer the (time-dependent) displacement on the rupture surface from geophysical data. The resulting earthquake source models document the complexity of the rupture process. However, multiple source models for the same earthquake, obtained by different research teams, often exhibit remarkable dissimilarities. To address the uncertainties in earthquake-source inversion methods and to understand strengths and weaknesses of the various approaches used, the Source Inversion Validation (SIV) project conducts a set of forward-modeling exercises and inversion benchmarks. In this article, we describe the SIV strategy, the initial benchmarks, and current SIV results. Furthermore, we apply statistical tools for quantitative waveform comparison and for investigating source-model (dis)similarities that enable us to rank the solutions, and to identify particularly promising source inversion approaches. All SIV exercises (with related data and descriptions) and statistical comparison tools are available via an online collaboration platform, and we encourage source modelers to use the SIV benchmarks for developing and testing new methods. We envision that the SIV efforts will lead to new developments for tackling the earthquake-source imaging problem.

The Earthquake‐Source Inversion Validation (SIV) Project

KAUST Repository

Mai, Paul Martin; Schorlemmer, Danijel; Page, Morgan; Ampuero, Jean‐Paul; Asano, Kimiyuki; Causse, Mathieu; Custodio, Susana; Fan, Wenyuan; Festa, Gaetano; Galis, Martin; Gallovic, Frantisek; Imperatori, Walter; Kä ser, Martin; Malytskyy, Dmytro; Okuwaki, Ryo; Pollitz, Fred; Passone, Luca; Razafindrakoto, Hoby; Sekiguchi, Haruko; Song, Seok Goo; Somala, Surendra N.; Thingbaijam, Kiran Kumar; Twardzik, Cedric; van Driel, Martin; Vyas, Jagdish Chandra; Wang, Rongjiang; Yagi, Yuji; Zielke, Olaf

2016-01-01

Finite-fault earthquake source inversions infer the (time-dependent) displacement on the rupture surface from geophysical data. The resulting earthquake source models document the complexity of the rupture process. However, multiple source models for the same earthquake, obtained by different research teams, often exhibit remarkable dissimilarities. To address the uncertainties in earthquake-source inversion methods and to understand strengths and weaknesses of the various approaches used, the Source Inversion Validation (SIV) project conducts a set of forward-modeling exercises and inversion benchmarks. In this article, we describe the SIV strategy, the initial benchmarks, and current SIV results. Furthermore, we apply statistical tools for quantitative waveform comparison and for investigating source-model (dis)similarities that enable us to rank the solutions, and to identify particularly promising source inversion approaches. All SIV exercises (with related data and descriptions) and statistical comparison tools are available via an online collaboration platform, and we encourage source modelers to use the SIV benchmarks for developing and testing new methods. We envision that the SIV efforts will lead to new developments for tackling the earthquake-source imaging problem.

Earthquake source studies and seismic imaging in Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Tape, C.; Silwal, V.

2015-12-01

Alaska is one of the world's most seismically and tectonically active regions. Its enhanced seismicity, including slab seismicity down to 180 km, provides opportunities (1) to characterize pervasive crustal faulting and slab deformation through the estimation of moment tensors and (2) to image subsurface structures to help understand the tectonic evolution of Alaska. Most previous studies of earthquakes and seismic imaging in Alaska have emphasized earthquake locations and body-wave travel-time tomography. In the past decade, catalogs of seismic moment tensors have been established, while seismic surface waves, active-source data, and potential field data have been used to improve models of seismic structure. We have developed moment tensor catalogs in the regions of two of the largest sedimentary basins in Alaska: Cook Inlet forearc basin, west of Anchorage, and Nenana basin, west of Fairbanks. Our moment tensor solutions near Nenana basin suggest a transtensional tectonic setting, with the basin developing in a stepover of a left-lateral strike-slip fault system. We explore the effects of seismic wave propagation from point-source and finite-source earthquake models by performing three-dimensional wavefield simulations using seismic velocity models that include major sedimentary basins. We will use our catalog of moment tensors within an adjoint-based, iterative inversion to improve the three-dimensional tomographic model of Alaska.

PhySIC_IST: cleaning source trees to infer more informative supertrees.

Science.gov (United States)

Scornavacca, Celine; Berry, Vincent; Lefort, Vincent; Douzery, Emmanuel J P; Ranwez, Vincent

2008-10-04

Supertree methods combine phylogenies with overlapping sets of taxa into a larger one. Topological conflicts frequently arise among source trees for methodological or biological reasons, such as long branch attraction, lateral gene transfers, gene duplication/loss or deep gene coalescence. When topological conflicts occur among source trees, liberal methods infer supertrees containing the most frequent alternative, while veto methods infer supertrees not contradicting any source tree, i.e. discard all conflicting resolutions. When the source trees host a significant number of topological conflicts or have a small taxon overlap, supertree methods of both kinds can propose poorly resolved, hence uninformative, supertrees. To overcome this problem, we propose to infer non-plenary supertrees, i.e. supertrees that do not necessarily contain all the taxa present in the source trees, discarding those whose position greatly differs among source trees or for which insufficient information is provided. We detail a variant of the PhySIC veto method called PhySIC_IST that can infer non-plenary supertrees. PhySIC_IST aims at inferring supertrees that satisfy the same appealing theoretical properties as with PhySIC, while being as informative as possible under this constraint. The informativeness of a supertree is estimated using a variation of the CIC (Cladistic Information Content) criterion, that takes into account both the presence of multifurcations and the absence of some taxa. Additionally, we propose a statistical preprocessing step called STC (Source Trees Correction) to correct the source trees prior to the supertree inference. STC is a liberal step that removes the parts of each source tree that significantly conflict with other source trees. Combining STC with a veto method allows an explicit trade-off between veto and liberal approaches, tuned by a single parameter.Performing large-scale simulations, we observe that STC+PhySIC_IST infers much more informative

Characterize kinematic rupture history of large earthquakes with Multiple Haskell sources

Science.gov (United States)

Jia, Z.; Zhan, Z.

2017-12-01

Earthquakes are often regarded as continuous rupture along a single fault, but the occurrence of complex large events involving multiple faults and dynamic triggering challenges this view. Such rupture complexities cause difficulties in existing finite fault inversion algorithms, because they rely on specific parameterizations and regularizations to obtain physically meaningful solutions. Furthermore, it is difficult to assess reliability and uncertainty of obtained rupture models. Here we develop a Multi-Haskell Source (MHS) method to estimate rupture process of large earthquakes as a series of sub-events of varying location, timing and directivity. Each sub-event is characterized by a Haskell rupture model with uniform dislocation and constant unilateral rupture velocity. This flexible yet simple source parameterization allows us to constrain first-order rupture complexity of large earthquakes robustly. Additionally, relatively few parameters in the inverse problem yields improved uncertainty analysis based on Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling in a Bayesian framework. Synthetic tests and application of MHS method on real earthquakes show that our method can capture major features of large earthquake rupture process, and provide information for more detailed rupture history analysis.

Source study of the Jan Mayen transform fault strike-slip earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez-Pérez, Q.; Ottemöller, L.

2014-07-01

Seismic source parameters of oceanic transform zone earthquakes have been relatively poorly studied. Previous studies showed that this type of earthquakes has unique characteristics such as not only the relatively common occurrence of slow events with weak seismic radiation at high frequencies but also the occurrence of some events that have high apparent stress indicating strong high frequency radiation. We studied 5 strike-slip earthquakes in the Jan Mayen fracture zone with magnitudes in the range of 5.9 centroid time delay compared to other oceanic transform fault earthquakes.

Source processes of strong earthquakes in the North Tien-Shan region

Science.gov (United States)

Kulikova, G.; Krueger, F.

2013-12-01

Tien-Shan region attracts attention of scientists worldwide due to its complexity and tectonic uniqueness. A series of very strong destructive earthquakes occurred in Tien-Shan at the turn of XIX and XX centuries. Such large intraplate earthquakes are rare in seismology, which increases the interest in the Tien-Shan region. The presented study focuses on the source processes of large earthquakes in Tien-Shan. The amount of seismic data is limited for those early times. In 1889, when a major earthquake has occurred in Tien-Shan, seismic instruments were installed in very few locations in the world and these analog records did not survive till nowadays. Although around a hundred seismic stations were operating at the beginning of XIX century worldwide, it is not always possible to get high quality analog seismograms. Digitizing seismograms is a very important step in the work with analog seismic records. While working with historical seismic records one has to take into account all the aspects and uncertainties of manual digitizing and the lack of accurate timing and instrument characteristics. In this study, we develop an easy-to-handle and fast digitization program on the basis of already existing software which allows to speed up digitizing process and to account for all the recoding system uncertainties. Owing to the lack of absolute timing for the historical earthquakes (due to the absence of a universal clock at that time), we used time differences between P and S phases to relocate the earthquakes in North Tien-Shan and the body-wave amplitudes to estimate their magnitudes. Combining our results with geological data, five earthquakes in North Tien-Shan were precisely relocated. The digitizing of records can introduce steps into the seismograms which makes restitution (removal of instrument response) undesirable. To avoid the restitution, we simulated historic seismograph recordings with given values for damping and free period of the respective instrument and

Flash sourcing, or rapid detection and characterization of earthquake effects through website traffic analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laurent Frobert

2011-06-01

Full Text Available

This study presents the latest developments of an approach called ‘flash sourcing’, which provides information on the effects of an earthquake within minutes of its occurrence. Information is derived from an analysis of the website traffic surges of the European–Mediterranean Seismological Centre website after felt earthquakes. These surges are caused by eyewitnesses to a felt earthquake, who are the first who are informed of, and hence the first concerned by, an earthquake occurrence. Flash sourcing maps the felt area, and at least in some circumstances, the regions affected by severe damage or network disruption. We illustrate how the flash-sourced information improves and speeds up the delivery of public earthquake information, and beyond seismology, we consider what it can teach us about public responses when experiencing an earthquake. Future developments should improve the description of the earthquake effects and potentially contribute to the improvement of the efficiency of earthquake responses by filling the information gap after the occurrence of an earthquake.

Fully probabilistic seismic source inversion – Part 1: Efficient parameterisation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. C. Stähler

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Seismic source inversion is a non-linear problem in seismology where not just the earthquake parameters themselves but also estimates of their uncertainties are of great practical importance. Probabilistic source inversion (Bayesian inference is very adapted to this challenge, provided that the parameter space can be chosen small enough to make Bayesian sampling computationally feasible. We propose a framework for PRobabilistic Inference of Seismic source Mechanisms (PRISM that parameterises and samples earthquake depth, moment tensor, and source time function efficiently by using information from previous non-Bayesian inversions. The source time function is expressed as a weighted sum of a small number of empirical orthogonal functions, which were derived from a catalogue of >1000 source time functions (STFs by a principal component analysis. We use a likelihood model based on the cross-correlation misfit between observed and predicted waveforms. The resulting ensemble of solutions provides full uncertainty and covariance information for the source parameters, and permits propagating these source uncertainties into travel time estimates used for seismic tomography. The computational effort is such that routine, global estimation of earthquake mechanisms and source time functions from teleseismic broadband waveforms is feasible.

Physics-Based Hazard Assessment for Critical Structures Near Large Earthquake Sources

Science.gov (United States)

Hutchings, L.; Mert, A.; Fahjan, Y.; Novikova, T.; Golara, A.; Miah, M.; Fergany, E.; Foxall, W.

2017-09-01

We argue that for critical structures near large earthquake sources: (1) the ergodic assumption, recent history, and simplified descriptions of the hazard are not appropriate to rely on for earthquake ground motion prediction and can lead to a mis-estimation of the hazard and risk to structures; (2) a physics-based approach can address these issues; (3) a physics-based source model must be provided to generate realistic phasing effects from finite rupture and model near-source ground motion correctly; (4) wave propagations and site response should be site specific; (5) a much wider search of possible sources of ground motion can be achieved computationally with a physics-based approach; (6) unless one utilizes a physics-based approach, the hazard and risk to structures has unknown uncertainties; (7) uncertainties can be reduced with a physics-based approach, but not with an ergodic approach; (8) computational power and computer codes have advanced to the point that risk to structures can be calculated directly from source and site-specific ground motions. Spanning the variability of potential ground motion in a predictive situation is especially difficult for near-source areas, but that is the distance at which the hazard is the greatest. The basis of a "physical-based" approach is ground-motion syntheses derived from physics and an understanding of the earthquake process. This is an overview paper and results from previous studies are used to make the case for these conclusions. Our premise is that 50 years of strong motion records is insufficient to capture all possible ranges of site and propagation path conditions, rupture processes, and spatial geometric relationships between source and site. Predicting future earthquake scenarios is necessary; models that have little or no physical basis but have been tested and adjusted to fit available observations can only "predict" what happened in the past, which should be considered description as opposed to prediction

Refinements on the inferred causative faults of the great 2012 Indian Ocean earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Revathy, P. M.; Rajendran, K.

2014-12-01

As the largest known intra-plate strike-slip events, the pair of 2012 earthquakes in the Wharton Basin is a rarity. Separated in time by 2 hours these events rouse interest also because of their short inter-event duration, complex rupture mechanism, and spatial-temporal proximity to the great 2004 Sumatra plate boundary earthquake. Reactivation of fossil ridge-transform pairs is a favoured mechanism for large oceanic plate earthquakes and their inherent geometry triggers earthquakes on conjugate fault systems, as observed previously in the Wharton Basin. The current debate is whether the ruptures occurred on the WNW-ESE paleo ridges or the NNE-SSW paleo transforms. Back-projection models give a complex rupture pattern that favours the WNW-ESE fault [1]. However, the static stress changes due to the 2004 Sumatra earthquake and 2005 Nias earthquake favour the N15°E fault [2]. We use the Teleseismic Body-Wave Inversion Program [3] and waveform data from Global Seismic Network, to obtain the best fit solutions using P and S-wave synthetic modelling. The preliminary P-wave analysis of both earthquakes gives source parameters that are consistent with the Harvard CMT solutions. The obtained slip distribution complies with the NNE-SSW transforms. Both these earthquakes triggered small tsunamis which appear as two distinctive pulses on 13 Indian Ocean tide gauges and buoys. Frequency spectra of the tsunami recordings from various azimuths provide additional constraint for the choice of the causative faults. References: [1] Yue, H., T. Lay, and K. D. Koper (2012), En echelon and orthogonal fault ruptures of the 11 April 2012 great intraplate earthquakes, Nature, 490, 245-249, doi:10.1038/nature11492 [2] Delescluse, M., N. Chamot-Rooke, R. Cattin, L. Fleitout, O. Trubienko and C. Vigny April 2012 intra-oceanic seismicity off Sumatra boosted by the Banda-Aceh megathrust, Nature, 490(2012), pp. 240-244, doi:10.1038/nature11520 [3] M. Kikuchi and H. Kanamori, Note on

Constraining earthquake source inversions with GPS data: 1. Resolution-based removal of artifacts

Science.gov (United States)

Page, M.T.; Custodio, S.; Archuleta, R.J.; Carlson, J.M.

2009-01-01

We present a resolution analysis of an inversion of GPS data from the 2004 Mw 6.0 Parkfield earthquake. This earthquake was recorded at thirteen 1-Hz GPS receivers, which provides for a truly coseismic data set that can be used to infer the static slip field. We find that the resolution of our inverted slip model is poor at depth and near the edges of the modeled fault plane that are far from GPS receivers. The spatial heterogeneity of the model resolution in the static field inversion leads to artifacts in poorly resolved areas of the fault plane. These artifacts look qualitatively similar to asperities commonly seen in the final slip models of earthquake source inversions, but in this inversion they are caused by a surplus of free parameters. The location of the artifacts depends on the station geometry and the assumed velocity structure. We demonstrate that a nonuniform gridding of model parameters on the fault can remove these artifacts from the inversion. We generate a nonuniform grid with a grid spacing that matches the local resolution length on the fault and show that it outperforms uniform grids, which either generate spurious structure in poorly resolved regions or lose recoverable information in well-resolved areas of the fault. In a synthetic test, the nonuniform grid correctly averages slip in poorly resolved areas of the fault while recovering small-scale structure near the surface. Finally, we present an inversion of the Parkfield GPS data set on the nonuniform grid and analyze the errors in the final model. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Comparison of earthquake source parameters and interseismic plate coupling variations in global subduction zones (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Bilek, S. L.; Moyer, P. A.; Stankova-Pursley, J.

2010-12-01

Geodetically determined interseismic coupling variations have been found in subduction zones worldwide. These coupling variations have been linked to heterogeneities in interplate fault frictional conditions. These connections to fault friction imply that observed coupling variations are also important in influencing details in earthquake rupture behavior. Because of the wealth of newly available geodetic models along many subduction zones, it is now possible to examine detailed variations in coupling and compare to seismicity characteristics. Here we use a large catalog of earthquake source time functions and slip models for moderate to large magnitude earthquakes to explore these connections, comparing earthquake source parameters with available models of geodetic coupling along segments of the Japan, Kurile, Kamchatka, Peru, Chile, and Alaska subduction zones. In addition, we use published geodetic results along the Costa Rica margin to compare with source parameters of small magnitude earthquakes recorded with an onshore-offshore network of seismometers. For the moderate to large magnitude earthquakes, preliminary results suggest a complex relationship between earthquake parameters and estimates of strongly and weakly coupled segments of the plate interface. For example, along the Kamchatka subduction zone, these earthquakes occur primarily along the transition between strong and weak coupling, with significant heterogeneity in the pattern of moment scaled duration with respect to the coupling estimates. The longest scaled duration event in this catalog occurred in a region of strong coupling. Earthquakes along the transition between strong and weakly coupled exhibited the most complexity in the source time functions. Use of small magnitude (0.5 earthquake spectra, with higher corner frequencies and higher mean apparent stress for earthquakes that occur in along the Osa Peninsula relative to the Nicoya Peninsula, mimicking the along-strike variations in

Source Spectra and Site Response for Two Indonesian Earthquakes: the Tasikmalaya and Kerinci Events of 2009

Science.gov (United States)

Gunawan, I.; Cummins, P. R.; Ghasemi, H.; Suhardjono, S.

2012-12-01

Indonesia is very prone to natural disasters, especially earthquakes, due to its location in a tectonically active region. In September-October 2009 alone, intraslab and crustal earthquakes caused the deaths of thousands of people, severe infrastructure destruction and considerable economic loss. Thus, both intraslab and crustal earthquakes are important sources of earthquake hazard in Indonesia. Analysis of response spectra for these intraslab and crustal earthquakes are needed to yield more detail about earthquake properties. For both types of earthquakes, we have analysed available Indonesian seismic waveform data to constrain source and path parameters - i.e., low frequency spectral level, Q, and corner frequency - at reference stations that appear to be little influenced by site response.. We have considered these analyses for the main shocks as well as several aftershocks. We obtain corner frequencies that are reasonably consistent with the constant stress drop hypothesis. Using these results, we consider using them to extract information about site response form other stations form the Indonesian strong motion network that appear to be strongly affected by site response. Such site response data, as well as earthquake source parameters, are important for assessing earthquake hazard in Indonesia.

Earthquake Source Depths in the Zagros Mountains: A "Jelly Sandwich" or "Creme Brulee" Lithosphere?

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, A. N.; Nyblade, A.; Brazier, R.; Rodgers, A.; Al-Amri, A.

2006-12-01

The Zagros Mountain Belt of southwestern Iran is one of the most seismically active mountain belts in the world. Previous studies of the depth distribution of earthquakes in this region have shown conflicting results. Early seismic studies of teleseismically recorded events found that earthquakes in the Zagros Mountains nucleated within both the upper crust and upper mantle, indicating that the lithosphere underlying the Zagros Mountains has a strong upper crust and a strong lithospheric mantle, separated by a weak lower crust. Such a model of lithospheric structure is called the "Jelly Sandwich" model. More recent teleseismic studies, however, found that earthquakes in the Zagros Mountains occur only within the upper crust, thus indicating that the strength of the Zagros Mountains' lithosphere is primarily isolated to the upper crust. This model of lithospheric structure is called the "crème brûlée" model. Analysis of regionally recorded earthquakes nucleating within the Zagros Mountains is presented here. Data primarily come from the Saudi Arabian National Digital Seismic Network, although data sources include many regional open and closed networks. The use of regionally recorded earthquakes facilitates the analysis of a larger dataset than has been used in previous teleseismic studies. Regional waveforms have been inverted for source parameters using a range of potential source depths to determine the best fitting source parameters and depths. Results indicate that earthquakes nucleate in two distinct zones. One seismogenic zone lies at shallow, upper crustal depths. The second seismogenic zone lies near the Moho. Due to uncertainty in the source and Moho depths, further study is needed to determine whether these deeper events are nucleating within the lower crust or the upper mantle.

Uncertainty in Earthquake Source Imaging Due to Variations in Source Time Function and Earth Structure

KAUST Repository

Razafindrakoto, H. N. T.; Mai, Paul Martin

2014-01-01

One way to improve the accuracy and reliability of kinematic earthquake source imaging is to investigate the origin of uncertainty and to minimize their effects. The difficulties in kinematic source inversion arise from the nonlinearity of the problem, nonunique choices in the parameterization, and observational errors. We analyze particularly the uncertainty related to the choice of the source time function (STF) and the variability in Earth structure. We consider a synthetic data set generated from a spontaneous dynamic rupture calculation. Using Bayesian inference, we map the solution space of peak slip rate, rupture time, and rise time to characterize the kinematic rupture in terms of posterior density functions. Our test to investigate the effect of the choice of STF reveals that all three tested STFs (isosceles triangle, regularized Yoffe with acceleration time of 0.1 and 0.3 s) retrieve the patch of high slip and slip rate around the hypocenter. However, the use of an isosceles triangle as STF artificially accelerates the rupture to propagate faster than the target solution. It additionally generates an artificial linear correlation between rupture onset time and rise time. These appear to compensate for the dynamic source effects that are not included in the symmetric triangular STF. The exact rise time for the tested STFs is difficult to resolve due to the small amount of radiated seismic moment in the tail of STF. To highlight the effect of Earth structure variability, we perform inversions including the uncertainty in the wavespeed only, and variability in both wavespeed and layer depth. We find that little difference is noticeable between the resulting rupture model uncertainties from these two parameterizations. Both significantly broaden the posterior densities and cause faster rupture propagation particularly near the hypocenter due to the major velocity change at the depth where the fault is located.

Uncertainty in Earthquake Source Imaging Due to Variations in Source Time Function and Earth Structure

KAUST Repository

Razafindrakoto, H. N. T.

2014-03-25

One way to improve the accuracy and reliability of kinematic earthquake source imaging is to investigate the origin of uncertainty and to minimize their effects. The difficulties in kinematic source inversion arise from the nonlinearity of the problem, nonunique choices in the parameterization, and observational errors. We analyze particularly the uncertainty related to the choice of the source time function (STF) and the variability in Earth structure. We consider a synthetic data set generated from a spontaneous dynamic rupture calculation. Using Bayesian inference, we map the solution space of peak slip rate, rupture time, and rise time to characterize the kinematic rupture in terms of posterior density functions. Our test to investigate the effect of the choice of STF reveals that all three tested STFs (isosceles triangle, regularized Yoffe with acceleration time of 0.1 and 0.3 s) retrieve the patch of high slip and slip rate around the hypocenter. However, the use of an isosceles triangle as STF artificially accelerates the rupture to propagate faster than the target solution. It additionally generates an artificial linear correlation between rupture onset time and rise time. These appear to compensate for the dynamic source effects that are not included in the symmetric triangular STF. The exact rise time for the tested STFs is difficult to resolve due to the small amount of radiated seismic moment in the tail of STF. To highlight the effect of Earth structure variability, we perform inversions including the uncertainty in the wavespeed only, and variability in both wavespeed and layer depth. We find that little difference is noticeable between the resulting rupture model uncertainties from these two parameterizations. Both significantly broaden the posterior densities and cause faster rupture propagation particularly near the hypocenter due to the major velocity change at the depth where the fault is located.

A new model on the cause of Tangshan earthquakes in 1976

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jian

2001-09-01

In this paper the shortages of explanations on the cause of Tangshan earthquakes in 1976 are pointed out. Earthquake phenomena around Tangshan earthquakes are analyzed synthetically, it is noticed that the most prominent seismic phenomenon are seismic denseness of M L=4, but M L=3 and M L=2 is not active in the same temporal-spatial interval, which occurred from 1973 to 1975. We think that the phenomenon should correspond to relative integrity of the crust medium under higher regional stress. Assuming that the seismicity in circumjacent region could reflect the jostling extent of surrounding plates toward the Chinese mainland, it is inferred that there are multi-dynamical processes in North China region in 1970s, which supply the basic dynamical source to Tangshan earthquakes. A model of multi-dynamical processes and local weakening of the crust is proposed to explain the cause of Tangshan earthquakes. This model could unpuzzle many seismic phenomena related to Tangshan earthquakes.

Joint Inversion of Earthquake Source Parameters with local and teleseismic body waves

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, W.; Ni, S.; Wang, Z.

2011-12-01

In the classical source parameter inversion algorithm of CAP (Cut and Paste method, by Zhao and Helmberger), waveform data at near distances (typically less than 500km) are partitioned into Pnl and surface waves to account for uncertainties in the crustal models and different amplitude weight of body and surface waves. The classical CAP algorithms have proven effective for resolving source parameters (focal mechanisms, depth and moment) for earthquakes well recorded on relatively dense seismic network. However for regions covered with sparse stations, it is challenging to achieve precise source parameters . In this case, a moderate earthquake of ~M6 is usually recorded on only one or two local stations with epicentral distances less than 500 km. Fortunately, an earthquake of ~M6 can be well recorded on global seismic networks. Since the ray paths for teleseismic and local body waves sample different portions of the focal sphere, combination of teleseismic and local body wave data helps constrain source parameters better. Here we present a new CAP mothod (CAPjoint), which emploits both teleseismic body waveforms (P and SH waves) and local waveforms (Pnl, Rayleigh and Love waves) to determine source parameters. For an earthquake in Nevada that is well recorded with dense local network (USArray stations), we compare the results from CAPjoint with those from the traditional CAP method involving only of local waveforms , and explore the efficiency with bootstraping statistics to prove the results derived by CAPjoint are stable and reliable. Even with one local station included in joint inversion, accuracy of source parameters such as moment and strike can be much better improved.

Fused Regression for Multi-source Gene Regulatory Network Inference.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kari Y Lam

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Understanding gene regulatory networks is critical to understanding cellular differentiation and response to external stimuli. Methods for global network inference have been developed and applied to a variety of species. Most approaches consider the problem of network inference independently in each species, despite evidence that gene regulation can be conserved even in distantly related species. Further, network inference is often confined to single data-types (single platforms and single cell types. We introduce a method for multi-source network inference that allows simultaneous estimation of gene regulatory networks in multiple species or biological processes through the introduction of priors based on known gene relationships such as orthology incorporated using fused regression. This approach improves network inference performance even when orthology mapping and conservation are incomplete. We refine this method by presenting an algorithm that extracts the true conserved subnetwork from a larger set of potentially conserved interactions and demonstrate the utility of our method in cross species network inference. Last, we demonstrate our method's utility in learning from data collected on different experimental platforms.

Analysis of source spectra, attenuation, and site effects from central and eastern United States earthquakes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lindley, G.

1998-02-01

This report describes the results from three studies of source spectra, attenuation, and site effects of central and eastern United States earthquakes. In the first study source parameter estimates taken from 27 previous studies were combined to test the assumption that the earthquake stress drop is roughly a constant, independent of earthquake size. 200 estimates of stress drop and seismic moment from eastern North American earthquakes were combined. It was found that the estimated stress drop from the 27 studies increases approximately as the square-root of the seismic moment, from about 3 bars at 10 20 dyne-cm to 690 bars at 10 25 dyne-cm. These results do not support the assumption of a constant stress drop when estimating ground motion parameters from eastern North American earthquakes. In the second study, broadband seismograms recorded by the United States National Seismograph Network and cooperating stations have been analysed to determine Q Lg as a function of frequency in five regions: the northeastern US, southeastern US, central US, northern Basin and Range, and California and western Nevada. In the third study, using spectral analysis, estimates have been made for the anelastic attenuation of four regional phases, and estimates have been made for the source parameters of 27 earthquakes, including the M b 5.6, 14 April, 1995, West Texas earthquake

Earthquake source imaging by high-resolution array analysis at regional distances: the 2010 M7 Haiti earthquake as seen by the Venezuela National Seismic Network

Science.gov (United States)

Meng, L.; Ampuero, J. P.; Rendon, H.

2010-12-01

Back projection of teleseismic waves based on array processing has become a popular technique for earthquake source imaging,in particular to track the areas of the source that generate the strongest high frequency radiation. The technique has been previously applied to study the rupture process of the Sumatra earthquake and the supershear rupture of the Kunlun earthquakes. Here we attempt to image the Haiti earthquake using the data recorded by Venezuela National Seismic Network (VNSN). The network is composed of 22 broad-band stations with an East-West oriented geometry, and is located approximately 10 degrees away from Haiti in the perpendicular direction to the Enriquillo fault strike. This is the first opportunity to exploit the privileged position of the VNSN to study large earthquake ruptures in the Caribbean region. This is also a great opportunity to explore the back projection scheme of the crustal Pn phase at regional distances,which provides unique complementary insights to the teleseismic source inversions. The challenge in the analysis of the 2010 M7.0 Haiti earthquake is its very compact source region, possibly shorter than 30km, which is below the resolution limit of standard back projection techniques based on beamforming. Results of back projection analysis using the teleseismic USarray data reveal little details of the rupture process. To overcome the classical resolution limit we explored the Multiple Signal Classification method (MUSIC), a high-resolution array processing technique based on the signal-noise orthognality in the eigen space of the data covariance, which achieves both enhanced resolution and better ability to resolve closely spaced sources. We experiment with various synthetic earthquake scenarios to test the resolution. We find that MUSIC provides at least 3 times higher resolution than beamforming. We also study the inherent bias due to the interferences of coherent Green’s functions, which leads to a potential quantification

Mechanism of the 2015 volcanic tsunami earthquake near Torishima, Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Satake, Kenji

2018-01-01

Tsunami earthquakes are a group of enigmatic earthquakes generating disproportionally large tsunamis relative to seismic magnitude. These events occur most typically near deep-sea trenches. Tsunami earthquakes occurring approximately every 10 years near Torishima on the Izu-Bonin arc are another example. Seismic and tsunami waves from the 2015 event [Mw (moment magnitude) = 5.7] were recorded by an offshore seafloor array of 10 pressure gauges, ~100 km away from the epicenter. We made an array analysis of dispersive tsunamis to locate the tsunami source within the submarine Smith Caldera. The tsunami simulation from a large caldera-floor uplift of ~1.5 m with a small peripheral depression yielded waveforms remarkably similar to the observations. The estimated central uplift, 1.5 m, is ~20 times larger than that inferred from the seismologically determined non–double-couple source. Thus, the tsunami observation is not compatible with the published seismic source model taken at face value. However, given the indeterminacy of Mzx, Mzy, and M{tensile} of a shallow moment tensor source, it may be possible to find a source mechanism with efficient tsunami but inefficient seismic radiation that can satisfactorily explain both the tsunami and seismic observations, but this question remains unresolved. PMID:29740604

Dynamic rupture scenarios from Sumatra to Iceland - High-resolution earthquake source physics on natural fault systems

Science.gov (United States)

Gabriel, Alice-Agnes; Madden, Elizabeth H.; Ulrich, Thomas; Wollherr, Stephanie

2017-04-01

Capturing the observed complexity of earthquake sources in dynamic rupture simulations may require: non-linear fault friction, thermal and fluid effects, heterogeneous fault stress and fault strength initial conditions, fault curvature and roughness, on- and off-fault non-elastic failure. All of these factors have been independently shown to alter dynamic rupture behavior and thus possibly influence the degree of realism attainable via simulated ground motions. In this presentation we will show examples of high-resolution earthquake scenarios, e.g. based on the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake, the 1994 Northridge earthquake and a potential rupture of the Husavik-Flatey fault system in Northern Iceland. The simulations combine a multitude of representations of source complexity at the necessary spatio-temporal resolution enabled by excellent scalability on modern HPC systems. Such simulations allow an analysis of the dominant factors impacting earthquake source physics and ground motions given distinct tectonic settings or distinct focuses of seismic hazard assessment. Across all simulations, we find that fault geometry concurrently with the regional background stress state provide a first order influence on source dynamics and the emanated seismic wave field. The dynamic rupture models are performed with SeisSol, a software package based on an ADER-Discontinuous Galerkin scheme for solving the spontaneous dynamic earthquake rupture problem with high-order accuracy in space and time. Use of unstructured tetrahedral meshes allows for a realistic representation of the non-planar fault geometry, subsurface structure and bathymetry. The results presented highlight the fact that modern numerical methods are essential to further our understanding of earthquake source physics and complement both physic-based ground motion research and empirical approaches in seismic hazard analysis.

Ground Motion Prediction for Great Interplate Earthquakes in Kanto Basin Considering Variation of Source Parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Sekiguchi, H.; Yoshimi, M.; Horikawa, H.

2011-12-01

Broadband ground motions are estimated in the Kanto sedimentary basin which holds Tokyo metropolitan area inside for anticipated great interplate earthquakes along surrounding plate boundaries. Possible scenarios of great earthquakes along Sagami trough are modeled combining characteristic properties of the source area and adequate variation in source parameters in order to evaluate possible ground motion variation due to next Kanto earthquake. South to the rupture area of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake along the Japan trench, we consider possible M8 earthquake. The ground motions are computed with a four-step hybrid technique. We first calculate low-frequency ground motions at the engineering basement. We then calculate higher-frequency ground motions at the same position, and combine the lower- and higher-frequency motions using a matched filter. We finally calculate ground motions at the surface by computing the response of the alluvium-diluvium layers to the combined motions at the engineering basement.

Responses of a tall building in Los Angeles, California as inferred from local and distant earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Çelebi, Mehmet; Hasan Ulusoy,; Nori Nakata,

2016-01-01

Increasing inventory of tall buildings in the United States and elsewhere may be subjected to motions generated by near and far seismic sources that cause long-period effects. Multiple sets of records that exhibited such effects were retrieved from tall buildings in Tokyo and Osaka ~ 350 km and 770 km from the epicenter of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. In California, very few tall buildings have been instrumented. An instrumented 52-story building in downtown Los Angeles recorded seven local and distant earthquakes. Spectral and system identification methods exhibit significant low frequencies of interest (~0.17 Hz, 0.56 Hz and 1.05 Hz). These frequencies compare well with those computed by transfer functions; however, small variations are observed between the significant low frequencies for each of the seven earthquakes. The torsional and translational frequencies are very close and are coupled. Beating effect is observed in at least two of the seven earthquake data.

About Block Dynamic Model of Earthquake Source.

Science.gov (United States)

Gusev, G. A.; Gufeld, I. L.

One may state the absence of a progress in the earthquake prediction papers. The short-term prediction (diurnal period, localisation being also predicted) has practical meaning. Failure is due to the absence of the adequate notions about geological medium, particularly, its block structure and especially in the faults. Geological and geophysical monitoring gives the basis for the notion about geological medium as open block dissipative system with limit energy saturation. The variations of the volume stressed state close to critical states are associated with the interaction of the inhomogeneous ascending stream of light gases (helium and hydrogen) with solid phase, which is more expressed in the faults. In the background state small blocks of the fault medium produce the sliding of great blocks in the faults. But for the considerable variations of ascending gas streams the formation of bound chains of small blocks is possible, so that bound state of great blocks may result (earthquake source). Recently using these notions we proposed a dynamical earthquake source model, based on the generalized chain of non-linear bound oscillators of Fermi-Pasta-Ulam type (FPU). The generalization concerns its in homogeneity and different external actions, imitating physical processes in the real source. Earlier weak inhomogeneous approximation without dissipation was considered. Last has permitted to study the FPU return (return to initial state). Probabilistic properties in quasi periodic movement were found. The chain decay problem due to non-linearity and external perturbations was posed. The thresholds and dependence of life- time of the chain are studied. The great fluctuations of life-times are discovered. In the present paper the rigorous consideration of the inhomogeneous chain including the dissipation is considered. For the strong dissipation case, when the oscillation movements are suppressed, specific effects are discovered. For noise action and constantly arising

Reading a 400,000-year record of earthquake frequency for an intraplate fault.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Randolph T; Goodwin, Laurel B; Sharp, Warren D; Mozley, Peter S

2017-05-09

Our understanding of the frequency of large earthquakes at timescales longer than instrumental and historical records is based mostly on paleoseismic studies of fast-moving plate-boundary faults. Similar study of intraplate faults has been limited until now, because intraplate earthquake recurrence intervals are generally long (10s to 100s of thousands of years) relative to conventional paleoseismic records determined by trenching. Long-term variations in the earthquake recurrence intervals of intraplate faults therefore are poorly understood. Longer paleoseismic records for intraplate faults are required both to better quantify their earthquake recurrence intervals and to test competing models of earthquake frequency (e.g., time-dependent, time-independent, and clustered). We present the results of U-Th dating of calcite veins in the Loma Blanca normal fault zone, Rio Grande rift, New Mexico, United States, that constrain earthquake recurrence intervals over much of the past ∼550 ka-the longest direct record of seismic frequency documented for any fault to date. The 13 distinct seismic events delineated by this effort demonstrate that for >400 ka, the Loma Blanca fault produced periodic large earthquakes, consistent with a time-dependent model of earthquake recurrence. However, this time-dependent series was interrupted by a cluster of earthquakes at ∼430 ka. The carbon isotope composition of calcite formed during this seismic cluster records rapid degassing of CO 2 , suggesting an interval of anomalous fluid source. In concert with U-Th dates recording decreased recurrence intervals, we infer seismicity during this interval records fault-valve behavior. These data provide insight into the long-term seismic behavior of the Loma Blanca fault and, by inference, other intraplate faults.

Reading a 400,000-year record of earthquake frequency for an intraplate fault

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Randolph T.; Goodwin, Laurel B.; Sharp, Warren D.; Mozley, Peter S.

2017-05-01

Our understanding of the frequency of large earthquakes at timescales longer than instrumental and historical records is based mostly on paleoseismic studies of fast-moving plate-boundary faults. Similar study of intraplate faults has been limited until now, because intraplate earthquake recurrence intervals are generally long (10s to 100s of thousands of years) relative to conventional paleoseismic records determined by trenching. Long-term variations in the earthquake recurrence intervals of intraplate faults therefore are poorly understood. Longer paleoseismic records for intraplate faults are required both to better quantify their earthquake recurrence intervals and to test competing models of earthquake frequency (e.g., time-dependent, time-independent, and clustered). We present the results of U-Th dating of calcite veins in the Loma Blanca normal fault zone, Rio Grande rift, New Mexico, United States, that constrain earthquake recurrence intervals over much of the past ˜550 ka—the longest direct record of seismic frequency documented for any fault to date. The 13 distinct seismic events delineated by this effort demonstrate that for >400 ka, the Loma Blanca fault produced periodic large earthquakes, consistent with a time-dependent model of earthquake recurrence. However, this time-dependent series was interrupted by a cluster of earthquakes at ˜430 ka. The carbon isotope composition of calcite formed during this seismic cluster records rapid degassing of CO2, suggesting an interval of anomalous fluid source. In concert with U-Th dates recording decreased recurrence intervals, we infer seismicity during this interval records fault-valve behavior. These data provide insight into the long-term seismic behavior of the Loma Blanca fault and, by inference, other intraplate faults.

The Earthquake‐Source Inversion Validation (SIV) Project

Science.gov (United States)

Mai, P. Martin; Schorlemmer, Danijel; Page, Morgan T.; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Asano, Kimiyuki; Causse, Mathieu; Custodio, Susana; Fan, Wenyuan; Festa, Gaetano; Galis, Martin; Gallovic, Frantisek; Imperatori, Walter; Käser, Martin; Malytskyy, Dmytro; Okuwaki, Ryo; Pollitz, Fred; Passone, Luca; Razafindrakoto, Hoby N. T.; Sekiguchi, Haruko; Song, Seok Goo; Somala, Surendra N.; Thingbaijam, Kiran K. S.; Twardzik, Cedric; van Driel, Martin; Vyas, Jagdish C.; Wang, Rongjiang; Yagi, Yuji; Zielke, Olaf

2016-01-01

Finite‐fault earthquake source inversions infer the (time‐dependent) displacement on the rupture surface from geophysical data. The resulting earthquake source models document the complexity of the rupture process. However, multiple source models for the same earthquake, obtained by different research teams, often exhibit remarkable dissimilarities. To address the uncertainties in earthquake‐source inversion methods and to understand strengths and weaknesses of the various approaches used, the Source Inversion Validation (SIV) project conducts a set of forward‐modeling exercises and inversion benchmarks. In this article, we describe the SIV strategy, the initial benchmarks, and current SIV results. Furthermore, we apply statistical tools for quantitative waveform comparison and for investigating source‐model (dis)similarities that enable us to rank the solutions, and to identify particularly promising source inversion approaches. All SIV exercises (with related data and descriptions) and statistical comparison tools are available via an online collaboration platform, and we encourage source modelers to use the SIV benchmarks for developing and testing new methods. We envision that the SIV efforts will lead to new developments for tackling the earthquake‐source imaging problem.

Earthquake ground-motion in presence of source and medium heterogeneities

KAUST Repository

Vyas, Jagdish Chandra

2017-01-01

-motion variability associated with unilateral ruptures based on ground-motion simulations of the MW 7.3 1992 Landers earthquake, eight simplified source models, and a MW 7.8 rupture simulation (ShakeOut) for the San Andreas fault. Our numerical modeling reveals

Source parameters of the swarm earthquakes in West Bohemia/Vogtland

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Michálek, Jan; Fischer, Tomáš

2013-01-01

Roč. 195, č. 2 (2013), s. 1196-1210 ISSN 0956-540X Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : Fourier analysis * earthquake source observations * seismic ity and tectonics Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 2.724, year: 2013

Smartphone-Based Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning in Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Brooks, B. A.; Baez, J. C.; Ericksen, T.; Barrientos, S. E.; Minson, S. E.; Duncan, C.; Guillemot, C.; Smith, D.; Boese, M.; Cochran, E. S.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Glennie, C. L.; Dueitt, J.; Parra, H.

2016-12-01

Many locations around the world face high seismic hazard, but do not have the resources required to establish traditional earthquake and tsunami warning systems (E/TEW) that utilize scientific grade seismological sensors. MEMs accelerometers and GPS chips embedded in, or added inexpensively to, smartphones are sensitive enough to provide robust E/TEW if they are deployed in sufficient numbers. We report on a pilot project in Chile, one of the most productive earthquake regions world-wide. There, magnitude 7.5+ earthquakes occurring roughly every 1.5 years and larger tsunamigenic events pose significant local and trans-Pacific hazard. The smartphone-based network described here is being deployed in parallel to the build-out of a scientific-grade network for E/TEW. Our sensor package comprises a smartphone with internal MEMS and an external GPS chipset that provides satellite-based augmented positioning and phase-smoothing. Each station is independent of local infrastructure, they are solar-powered and rely on cellular SIM cards for communications. An Android app performs initial onboard processing and transmits both accelerometer and GPS data to a server employing the FinDer-BEFORES algorithm to detect earthquakes, producing an acceleration-based line source model for smaller magnitude earthquakes or a joint seismic-geodetic finite-fault distributed slip model for sufficiently large magnitude earthquakes. Either source model provides accurate ground shaking forecasts, while distributed slip models for larger offshore earthquakes can be used to infer seafloor deformation for local tsunami warning. The network will comprise 50 stations by Sept. 2016 and 100 stations by Dec. 2016. Since Nov. 2015, batch processing has detected, located, and estimated the magnitude for Mw>5 earthquakes. Operational since June, 2016, we have successfully detected two earthquakes > M5 (M5.5, M5.1) that occurred within 100km of our network while producing zero false alarms.

Flash-sourcing or the rapid detection and characterisation of earthquake effects through clickstream data analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Bossu, R.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Roussel, F.; Frobert, L.

2011-12-01

Rapid characterisation of earthquake effects is essential for a timely and appropriate response in favour of victims and/or of eyewitnesses. In case of damaging earthquakes, any field observations that can fill the information gap characterising their immediate aftermath can contribute to more efficient rescue operations. This paper presents the last developments of a method called "flash-sourcing" addressing these issues. It relies on eyewitnesses, the first informed and the first concerned by an earthquake occurrence. More precisely, their use of the EMSC earthquake information website (www.emsc-csem.org) is analysed in real time to map the area where the earthquake was felt and identify, at least under certain circumstances zones of widespread damage. The approach is based on the natural and immediate convergence of eyewitnesses on the website who rush to the Internet to investigate cause of the shaking they just felt causing our traffic to increase The area where an earthquake was felt is mapped simply by locating Internet Protocol (IP) addresses during traffic surges. In addition, the presence of eyewitnesses browsing our website within minutes of an earthquake occurrence excludes the possibility of widespread damage in the localities they originate from: in case of severe damage, the networks would be down. The validity of the information derived from this clickstream analysis is confirmed by comparisons with EMS98 macroseismic map obtained from online questionnaires. The name of this approach, "flash-sourcing", is a combination of "flash-crowd" and "crowdsourcing" intending to reflect the rapidity of the data collation from the public. For computer scientists, a flash-crowd names a traffic surge on a website. Crowdsourcing means work being done by a "crowd" of people; It also characterises Internet and mobile applications collecting information from the public such as online macroseismic questionnaires. Like crowdsourcing techniques, flash-sourcing is a

Source mechanism inversion and ground motion modeling of induced earthquakes in Kuwait - A Bayesian approach

Science.gov (United States)

Gu, C.; Toksoz, M. N.; Marzouk, Y.; Al-Enezi, A.; Al-Jeri, F.; Buyukozturk, O.

2016-12-01

The increasing seismic activity in the regions of oil/gas fields due to fluid injection/extraction and hydraulic fracturing has drawn new attention in both academia and industry. Source mechanism and triggering stress of these induced earthquakes are of great importance for understanding the physics of the seismic processes in reservoirs, and predicting ground motion in the vicinity of oil/gas fields. The induced seismicity data in our study are from Kuwait National Seismic Network (KNSN). Historically, Kuwait has low local seismicity; however, in recent years the KNSN has monitored more and more local earthquakes. Since 1997, the KNSN has recorded more than 1000 earthquakes (Mw Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) and KNSN, and widely felt by people in Kuwait. These earthquakes happen repeatedly in the same locations close to the oil/gas fields in Kuwait (see the uploaded image). The earthquakes are generally small (Mw stress of these earthquakes was calculated based on the source mechanisms results. In addition, we modeled the ground motion in Kuwait due to these local earthquakes. Our results show that most likely these local earthquakes occurred on pre-existing faults and were triggered by oil field activities. These events are generally smaller than Mw 5; however, these events, occurring in the reservoirs, are very shallow with focal depths less than about 4 km. As a result, in Kuwait, where oil fields are close to populated areas, these induced earthquakes could produce ground accelerations high enough to cause damage to local structures without using seismic design criteria.

Earthquakes and depleted gas reservoirs: which comes first?

Science.gov (United States)

Mucciarelli, M.; Donda, F.; Valensise, G.

2015-10-01

While scientists are paying increasing attention to the seismicity potentially induced by hydrocarbon exploitation, so far, little is known about the reverse problem, i.e. the impact of active faulting and earthquakes on hydrocarbon reservoirs. The 20 and 29 May 2012 earthquakes in Emilia, northern Italy (Mw 6.1 and 6.0), raised concerns among the public for being possibly human-induced, but also shed light on the possible use of gas wells as a marker of the seismogenic potential of an active fold and thrust belt. We compared the location, depth and production history of 455 gas wells drilled along the Ferrara-Romagna arc, a large hydrocarbon reserve in the southeastern Po Plain (northern Italy), with the location of the inferred surface projection of the causative faults of the 2012 Emilia earthquakes and of two pre-instrumental damaging earthquakes. We found that these earthquake sources fall within a cluster of sterile wells, surrounded by productive wells at a few kilometres' distance. Since the geology of the productive and sterile areas is quite similar, we suggest that past earthquakes caused the loss of all natural gas from the potential reservoirs lying above their causative faults. To validate our hypothesis we performed two different statistical tests (binomial and Monte Carlo) on the relative distribution of productive and sterile wells, with respect to seismogenic faults. Our findings have important practical implications: (1) they may allow major seismogenic sources to be singled out within large active thrust systems; (2) they suggest that reservoirs hosted in smaller anticlines are more likely to be intact; and (3) they also suggest that in order to minimize the hazard of triggering significant earthquakes, all new gas storage facilities should use exploited reservoirs rather than sterile hydrocarbon traps or aquifers.

Earthquake ground-motion in presence of source and medium heterogeneities

KAUST Repository

Vyas, Jagdish Chandra

2017-01-01

This dissertation work investigates the effects of earthquake rupture complexity and heterogeneities in Earth structure on near-field ground-motions. More specifically, we address two key issues in seismology: (1) near-field ground-shaking variability as function of distance and azimuth for unilateral directive ruptures, and (2) impact of rupture complexity and seismic scattering on Mach wave coherence associated with supershear rupture propagation. We examine earthquake ground-motion variability associated with unilateral ruptures based on ground-motion simulations of the MW 7.3 1992 Landers earthquake, eight simplified source models, and a MW 7.8 rupture simulation (ShakeOut) for the San Andreas fault. Our numerical modeling reveals that the ground-shaking variability in near-fault distances (< 20 km) is larger than that given by empirical ground motion prediction equations. In addition, the variability decreases with increasing distance from the source, exhibiting a power-law decay. The high near-field variability can be explained by strong directivity effects whose influence weaken as we move away from the fault. At the same time, the slope of the power-law decay is found to be dominantly controlled by slip heterogeneity. Furthermore, the ground-shaking variability is high in the rupture propagation direction whereas low in the directions perpendicular to it. However, the variability expressed as a function of azimuth is not only sensitive to slip heterogeneity, but also to rupture velocity. To study Mach wave coherence for supershear ruptures, we consider heterogeneities in rupture parameters (variations in slip, rise time and rupture speed) and 3D scattering media having small-scale random heterogeneities. The Mach wave coherence is reduced at near-fault distances (< 10 km) by the source heterogeneities. At the larger distances from the source, medium scattering plays the dominant role in reducing the Mach wave coherence. Combined effect of the source and

Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

2016-07-15

Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of their high sensitivity to stress changes in the seismogenic zone. Episodic stress transfer to megathrust source faults leads to an increased probability of triggering huge earthquakes if the adjacent locked region is critically loaded. Careful and precise monitoring of slow earthquakes may provide new information on the likelihood of impending huge earthquakes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

A new software for deformation source optimization, the Bayesian Earthquake Analysis Tool (BEAT)

Science.gov (United States)

Vasyura-Bathke, H.; Dutta, R.; Jonsson, S.; Mai, P. M.

2017-12-01

Modern studies of crustal deformation and the related source estimation, including magmatic and tectonic sources, increasingly use non-linear optimization strategies to estimate geometric and/or kinematic source parameters and often consider both jointly, geodetic and seismic data. Bayesian inference is increasingly being used for estimating posterior distributions of deformation source model parameters, given measured/estimated/assumed data and model uncertainties. For instance, some studies consider uncertainties of a layered medium and propagate these into source parameter uncertainties, while others use informative priors to reduce the model parameter space. In addition, innovative sampling algorithms have been developed to efficiently explore the high-dimensional parameter spaces. Compared to earlier studies, these improvements have resulted in overall more robust source model parameter estimates that include uncertainties. However, the computational burden of these methods is high and estimation codes are rarely made available along with the published results. Even if the codes are accessible, it is usually challenging to assemble them into a single optimization framework as they are typically coded in different programing languages. Therefore, further progress and future applications of these methods/codes are hampered, while reproducibility and validation of results has become essentially impossible. In the spirit of providing open-access and modular codes to facilitate progress and reproducible research in deformation source estimations, we undertook the effort of developing BEAT, a python package that comprises all the above-mentioned features in one single programing environment. The package builds on the pyrocko seismological toolbox (www.pyrocko.org), and uses the pymc3 module for Bayesian statistical model fitting. BEAT is an open-source package (https://github.com/hvasbath/beat), and we encourage and solicit contributions to the project. Here, we

Adjoint Inversion for Extended Earthquake Source Kinematics From Very Dense Strong Motion Data

Science.gov (United States)

Ampuero, J. P.; Somala, S.; Lapusta, N.

2010-12-01

Addressing key open questions about earthquake dynamics requires a radical improvement of the robustness and resolution of seismic observations of large earthquakes. Proposals for a new generation of earthquake observation systems include the deployment of “community seismic networks” of low-cost accelerometers in urban areas and the extraction of strong ground motions from high-rate optical images of the Earth's surface recorded by a large space telescope in geostationary orbit. Both systems could deliver strong motion data with a spatial density orders of magnitude higher than current seismic networks. In particular, a “space seismometer” could sample the seismic wave field at a spatio-temporal resolution of 100 m, 1 Hz over areas several 100 km wide with an amplitude resolution of few cm/s in ground velocity. The amount of data to process would be immensely larger than what current extended source inversion algorithms can handle, which hampers the quantitative assessment of the cost-benefit trade-offs that can guide the practical design of the proposed earthquake observation systems. We report here on the development of a scalable source imaging technique based on iterative adjoint inversion and its application to the proof-of-concept of a space seismometer. We generated synthetic ground motions for M7 earthquake rupture scenarios based on dynamic rupture simulations on a vertical strike-slip fault embedded in an elastic half-space. A range of scenarios include increasing levels of complexity and interesting features such as supershear rupture speed. The resulting ground shaking is then processed accordingly to what would be captured by an optical satellite. Based on the resulting data, we perform source inversion by an adjoint/time-reversal method. The gradient of a cost function quantifying the waveform misfit between data and synthetics is efficiently obtained by applying the time-reversed ground velocity residuals as surface force sources, back

Multi-Array Back-Projections of The 2015 Gorkha Earthquake With Physics-Based Aftershock Calibrations

Science.gov (United States)

Meng, L.; Zhang, A.; Yagi, Y.

2015-12-01

The 2015 Mw 7.8 Nepal-Gorkha earthquake with casualties of over 9,000 people is the most devastating disaster to strike Nepal since the 1934 Nepal-Bihar earthquake. Its rupture process is well imaged by the teleseismic MUSIC back-projections (BP). Here, we perform independent back-projections of high-frequency recordings (0.5-2 Hz) from the Australian seismic network (AU), the North America network (NA) and the European seismic network (EU), located in complementary orientations. Our results of all three arrays show unilateral linear rupture path to the east of the hypocenter. But the propagating directions and the inferred rupture speeds differ significantly among different arrays. To understand the spatial uncertainties of the BP analysis, we image four moderate-size (M5~6) aftershocks based on the timing correction derived from the alignment of the initial P-wave of the mainshock. We find that the apparent source locations inferred from BP are systematically biased along the source-array orientation, which can be explained by the uncertainty of the 3D velocity structure deviated from the 1D reference model (e.g. IASP91). We introduced a slowness error term in travel time as a first-order calibration that successfully mitigates the source location discrepancies of different arrays. The calibrated BP results of three arrays are mutually consistent and reveal a unilateral rupture propagating eastward at a speed of 2.7 km/s along the down-dip edge of the locked Himalaya thrust zone over ~ 150 km, in agreement with a narrow slip distribution inferred from finite source inversions.

Uncertainties for seismic moment tensors and applications to nuclear explosions, volcanic events, and earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Tape, C.; Alvizuri, C. R.; Silwal, V.; Tape, W.

2017-12-01

When considered as a point source, a seismic source can be characterized in terms of its origin time, hypocenter, moment tensor, and source time function. The seismologist's task is to estimate these parameters--and their uncertainties--from three-component ground motion recorded at irregularly spaced stations. We will focus on one portion of this problem: the estimation of the moment tensor and its uncertainties. With magnitude estimated separately, we are left with five parameters describing the normalized moment tensor. A lune of normalized eigenvalue triples can be used to visualize the two parameters (lune longitude and lune latitude) describing the source type, while the conventional strike, dip, and rake angles can be used to characterize the orientation. Slight modifications of these five parameters lead to a uniform parameterization of moment tensors--uniform in the sense that equal volumes in the coordinate domain of the parameterization correspond to equal volumes of moment tensors. For a moment tensor m that we have inferred from seismic data for an earthquake, we define P(V) to be the probability that the true moment tensor for the earthquake lies in the neighborhood of m that has fractional volume V. The average value of P(V) is then a measure of our confidence in our inference of m. The calculation of P(V) requires knowing both the probability P(w) and the fractional volume V(w) of the set of moment tensors within a given angular radius w of m. We apply this approach to several different data sets, including nuclear explosions from the Nevada Test Site, volcanic events from Uturuncu (Bolivia), and earthquakes. Several challenges remain: choosing an appropriate misfit function, handling time shifts between data and synthetic waveforms, and extending the uncertainty estimation to include more source parameters (e.g., hypocenter and source time function).

Estimation of Source Parameters of Historical Major Earthquakes from 1900 to 1970 around Asia and Analysis of Their Uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Han, J.; Zhou, S.

2017-12-01

Asia, located in the conjoined areas of Eurasian, Pacific, and Indo-Australian plates, is the continent with highest seismicity. Earthquake catalogue on the bases of modern seismic network recordings has been established since around 1970 in Asia and the earthquake catalogue before 1970 was much more inaccurate because of few stations. With a history of less than 50 years of modern earthquake catalogue, researches in seismology are quite limited. After the appearance of improved Earth velocity structure model, modified locating method and high-accuracy Optical Character Recognition technique, travel time data of earthquakes from 1900 to 1970 can be included in research and more accurate locations can be determined for historical earthquakes. Hence, parameters of these historical earthquakes can be obtained more precisely and some research method such as ETAS model can be used in a much longer time scale. This work focuses on the following three aspects: (1) Relocating more than 300 historical major earthquakes (M≥7.0) in Asia based on the Shide Circulars, International Seismological Summary and EHB Bulletin instrumental records between 1900 and 1970. (2) Calculating the focal mechanisms of more than 50 events by first motion records of P wave of ISS. (3) Based on the geological data, tectonic stress field and the result of relocation, inferring focal mechanisms of historical major earthquakes.

Contribution of Satellite Gravimetry to Understanding Seismic Source Processes of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Shin-Chan; Sauber, Jeanne; Riva, Riccardo

2011-01-01

The 2011 great Tohoku-Oki earthquake, apart from shaking the ground, perturbed the motions of satellites orbiting some hundreds km away above the ground, such as GRACE, due to coseismic change in the gravity field. Significant changes in inter-satellite distance were observed after the earthquake. These unconventional satellite measurements were inverted to examine the earthquake source processes from a radically different perspective that complements the analyses of seismic and geodetic ground recordings. We found the average slip located up-dip of the hypocenter but within the lower crust, as characterized by a limited range of bulk and shear moduli. The GRACE data constrained a group of earthquake source parameters that yield increasing dip (7-16 degrees plus or minus 2 degrees) and, simultaneously, decreasing moment magnitude (9.17-9.02 plus or minus 0.04) with increasing source depth (15-24 kilometers). The GRACE solution includes the cumulative moment released over a month and demonstrates a unique view of the long-wavelength gravimetric response to all mass redistribution processes associated with the dynamic rupture and short-term postseismic mechanisms to improve our understanding of the physics of megathrusts.

Rapid Source Characterization of the 2011 Mw 9.0 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Hayes, Gavin P.

2011-01-01

On March 11th, 2011, a moment magnitude 9.0 earthquake struck off the coast of northeast Honshu, Japan, generating what may well turn out to be the most costly natural disaster ever. In the hours following the event, the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center led a rapid response to characterize the earthquake in terms of its location, size, faulting source, shaking and slip distributions, and population exposure, in order to place the disaster in a framework necessary for timely humanitarian response. As part of this effort, fast finite-fault inversions using globally distributed body- and surface-wave data were used to estimate the slip distribution of the earthquake rupture. Models generated within 7 hours of the earthquake origin time indicated that the event ruptured a fault up to 300 km long, roughly centered on the earthquake hypocenter, and involved peak slips of 20 m or more. Updates since this preliminary solution improve the details of this inversion solution and thus our understanding of the rupture process. However, significant observations such as the up-dip nature of rupture propagation and the along-strike length of faulting did not significantly change, demonstrating the usefulness of rapid source characterization for understanding the first order characteristics of major earthquakes.

An Adjoint Sensitivity Method Applied to Time Reverse Imaging of Tsunami Source for the 2009 Samoa Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Hossen, M. Jakir; Gusman, Aditya; Satake, Kenji; Cummins, Phil R.

2018-01-01

We have previously developed a tsunami source inversion method based on "Time Reverse Imaging" and demonstrated that it is computationally very efficient and has the ability to reproduce the tsunami source model with good accuracy using tsunami data of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake tsunami. In this paper, we implemented this approach in the 2009 Samoa earthquake tsunami triggered by a doublet earthquake consisting of both normal and thrust faulting. Our result showed that the method is quite capable of recovering the source model associated with normal and thrust faulting. We found that the inversion result is highly sensitive to some stations that must be removed from the inversion. We applied an adjoint sensitivity method to find the optimal set of stations in order to estimate a realistic source model. We found that the inversion result is improved significantly once the optimal set of stations is used. In addition, from the reconstructed source model we estimated the slip distribution of the fault from which we successfully determined the dipping orientation of the fault plane for the normal fault earthquake. Our result suggests that the fault plane dip toward the northeast.

Tsunami Source Modeling of the 2015 Volcanic Tsunami Earthquake near Torishima, South of Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Sandanbata, O.; Watada, S.; Satake, K.; Fukao, Y.; Sugioka, H.; Ito, A.; Shiobara, H.

2017-12-01

An abnormal earthquake occurred at a submarine volcano named Smith Caldera, near Torishima Island on the Izu-Bonin arc, on May 2, 2015. The earthquake, which hereafter we call "the 2015 Torishima earthquake," has a CLVD-type focal mechanism with a moderate seismic magnitude (M5.7) but generated larger tsunami waves with an observed maximum height of 50 cm at Hachijo Island [JMA, 2015], so that the earthquake can be regarded as a "tsunami earthquake." In the region, similar tsunami earthquakes were observed in 1984, 1996 and 2006, but their physical mechanisms are still not well understood. Tsunami waves generated by the 2015 earthquake were recorded by an array of ocean bottom pressure (OBP) gauges, 100 km northeastern away from the epicenter. The waves initiated with a small downward signal of 0.1 cm and reached peak amplitude (1.5-2.0 cm) of leading upward signals followed by continuous oscillations [Fukao et al., 2016]. For modeling its tsunami source, or sea-surface displacement, we perform tsunami waveform simulations, and compare synthetic and observed waveforms at the OBP gauges. The linear Boussinesq equations are adapted with the tsunami simulation code, JAGURS [Baba et al., 2015]. We first assume a Gaussian-shaped sea-surface uplift of 1.0 m with a source size comparable to Smith Caldera, 6-7 km in diameter. By shifting source location around the caldera, we found the uplift is probably located within the caldera rim, as suggested by Sandanbata et al. [2016]. However, synthetic waves show no initial downward signal that was observed at the OBP gauges. Hence, we add a ring of subsidence surrounding the main uplift, and examine sizes and amplitudes of the main uplift and the subsidence ring. As a result, the model of a main uplift of around 1.0 m with a radius of 4 km surrounded by a ring of small subsidence shows good agreement of synthetic and observed waveforms. The results yield two implications for the deformation process that help us to understanding

Three Kanto Earthquakes Inferred from the Tsunami Deposits and the Relative Sea Level Change in the Miura Peninsula, Central Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, H.; Shimazaki, K.; Chiba, T.; Ishibe, T.; Okamura, M.; Matsuoka, H.; Tsuji, Y.; Satake, K.

2010-12-01

The Kanto earthquake is a great interplate earthquake caused by subduction of the Philippine Sea Plate beneath the Japan Island along the Sagami Trough. The 1923 Kanto earthquake (M=7.9) and the 1703 Kanto earthquake (M~8.0) are two of the most devastating earthquake those struck Tokyo Metropolitan area, respectively. These earthquakes brought large (~5 m) tsunami to the coast area and uplifted the Miura peninsula by ~1.4 m. The tide gauge station, moreover, records the subsidence during the interseismic period before and after the 1923 earthquake. Present study clarifies the past Kanto earthquake prior to the 1703 earthquake based on the sedimentary analysis in the Koajiro bay of the southern Miura Peninsula. The continuous samples of inner bay fine sediments were taken by the boring survey using 3-m-long geoslicer. Three layers of coarse sediments, T1, T2, and T3 units from top toward bottom, are observed in the bay sediments at almost all the sites. These units are composed of mixture of materials such as shell fragments, rock clasts and gravel, and some of units have eroded the lower fine sediments, indicating the event deposits by the strong traction flow. The grain sizes of the bay sediments are grading upward and abruptly become larger after the deposition of the T1, T2 and T3 units. Very little diatom is observed in these units, but the total number of diatoms increase in the bay sediments. The ratio of the marine planktonic species against the benthic species gradually rises from the lower part to the upper part in the bay sediment. In the tidal flat sediment, the freshwater planktonic species appear in place of the marine planktonic diatom. The changes of grain size and diatom species make a presumption that the sea depth suddenly becomes shallow by the event and deeper during the interseismic period. The T1, T2 and T3 units, thus, are correlated with the tsunami deposits conveyed by the Kanto earthquake. The T1 and T2 units are inferred to be the tsunami

Earthquake source properties from instrumented laboratory stick-slip

Science.gov (United States)

Kilgore, Brian D.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Beeler, Nicholas M.; Lockner, David A.; Thomas, Marion Y.; Mitchell, Thomas M.; Bhat, Harsha S.

2017-01-01

Stick-slip experiments were performed to determine the influence of the testing apparatus on source properties, develop methods to relate stick-slip to natural earthquakes and examine the hypothesis of McGarr [2012] that the product of stiffness, k, and slip duration, Δt, is scale-independent and the same order as for earthquakes. The experiments use the double-direct shear geometry, Sierra White granite at 2 MPa normal stress and a remote slip rate of 0.2 µm/sec. To determine apparatus effects, disc springs were added to the loading column to vary k. Duration, slip, slip rate, and stress drop decrease with increasing k, consistent with a spring-block slider model. However, neither for the data nor model is kΔt constant; this results from varying stiffness at fixed scale.In contrast, additional analysis of laboratory stick-slip studies from a range of standard testing apparatuses is consistent with McGarr's hypothesis. kΔt is scale-independent, similar to that of earthquakes, equivalent to the ratio of static stress drop to average slip velocity, and similar to the ratio of shear modulus to wavespeed of rock. These properties result from conducting experiments over a range of sample sizes, using rock samples with the same elastic properties as the Earth, and scale-independent design practices.

Geological and historical evidence of irregular recurrent earthquakes in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Satake, Kenji

2015-10-28

Great (M∼8) earthquakes repeatedly occur along the subduction zones around Japan and cause fault slip of a few to several metres releasing strains accumulated from decades to centuries of plate motions. Assuming a simple 'characteristic earthquake' model that similar earthquakes repeat at regular intervals, probabilities of future earthquake occurrence have been calculated by a government committee. However, recent studies on past earthquakes including geological traces from giant (M∼9) earthquakes indicate a variety of size and recurrence interval of interplate earthquakes. Along the Kuril Trench off Hokkaido, limited historical records indicate that average recurrence interval of great earthquakes is approximately 100 years, but the tsunami deposits show that giant earthquakes occurred at a much longer interval of approximately 400 years. Along the Japan Trench off northern Honshu, recurrence of giant earthquakes similar to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake with an interval of approximately 600 years is inferred from historical records and tsunami deposits. Along the Sagami Trough near Tokyo, two types of Kanto earthquakes with recurrence interval of a few hundred years and a few thousand years had been recognized, but studies show that the recent three Kanto earthquakes had different source extents. Along the Nankai Trough off western Japan, recurrence of great earthquakes with an interval of approximately 100 years has been identified from historical literature, but tsunami deposits indicate that the sizes of the recurrent earthquakes are variable. Such variability makes it difficult to apply a simple 'characteristic earthquake' model for the long-term forecast, and several attempts such as use of geological data for the evaluation of future earthquake probabilities or the estimation of maximum earthquake size in each subduction zone are being conducted by government committees. © 2015 The Author(s).

Earthquake and volcanic risks: issues for the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Solidum, Dr. Renato U.

2009-01-01

The proposed re-commissioning of the mothballed Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) has raised objections that include the perceived unsafe siting of the BNPP on Mt. Natib, a potentially active volcano, in an earthquake-prone region. This concern must be evaluated through thorough seismological, paleo-seismic, volcanological and engineering studies. The BNPP sits on Napot Point on the southwest foot slope of Mt. Natib, an andesitic to dacitic stratovolcano just 30 kms south of Mt. Pinatubo. Natib's evolution is poorly known, but involved at least 3 explosive summit eruptions that formed a 6 km-diameter coalescent caldera and a younger 2-km diameter caldera. Pyroclastic flows define the cone surface, and available age dating includes a ±27 ka 14C age for a deposit on the eastern flanks and an 11-18 ka relative dating for suspected pyroclastic deposits in Subic Bay (1). Whether these represent the most recent eruptions is uncertain. A detailed magmatic/eruptive history defining magmatic recharge and eruption recurrence rates, from which probabilities for future eruptive activity can be analyzed, will be necessary for quantifying volcanic risk. Furthermore, Natib,Pinatubo and adjacent Mariveles are part of the Luzon Arc and associated with ongoing subduction along the Manila Trench. Subduction earthquakes are common, but apart from these, seismic risk is also being attributted to tectonic structures inland that include reported on site faults inferred from drilling, basin faults seen in reflection profiles (1), the Subic Bay Fault Zone delineated by magmatic studies (2) and various lineaments inferred from satellite imageries. These, plus seismicity in the region are being argued as indicators of earthquake threat. However, much emphasis is given maximum seismic magnitudes rather than peak ground accelerations (PGAs), epicentral rather than focal sources,and the inference of faults/lineaments rather than paleoseismic evidence of recent faulting. Paleoseismic studies of

NEAR REAL-TIME DETERMINATION OF EARTHQUAKE SOURCE PARAMETERS FOR TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING FROM GEODETIC OBSERVATIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Manneela

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Exemplifying the tsunami source immediately after an earthquake is the most critical component of tsunami early warning, as not every earthquake generates a tsunami. After a major under sea earthquake, it is very important to determine whether or not it has actually triggered the deadly wave. The near real-time observations from near field networks such as strong motion and Global Positioning System (GPS allows rapid determination of fault geometry. Here we present a complete processing chain of Indian Tsunami Early Warning System (ITEWS, starting from acquisition of geodetic raw data, processing, inversion and simulating the situation as it would be at warning center during any major earthquake. We determine the earthquake moment magnitude and generate the centroid moment tensor solution using a novel approach which are the key elements for tsunami early warning. Though the well established seismic monitoring network, numerical modeling and dissemination system are currently capable to provide tsunami warnings to most of the countries in and around the Indian Ocean, the study highlights the critical role of geodetic observations in determination of tsunami source for high-quality forecasting.

Source characteristics and geological implications of the January 2016 induced earthquake swarm near Crooked Lake, Alberta

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ruijia; Gu, Yu Jeffrey; Schultz, Ryan; Zhang, Miao; Kim, Ahyi

2017-08-01

On 2016 January 12, an intraplate earthquake with an initial reported local magnitude (ML) of 4.8 shook the town of Fox Creek, Alberta. While there were no reported damages, this earthquake was widely felt by the local residents and suspected to be induced by the nearby hydraulic-fracturing (HF) operations. In this study, we determine the earthquake source parameters using moment tensor inversions, and then detect and locate the associated swarm using a waveform cross-correlation based method. The broad-band seismic recordings from regional arrays suggest a moment magnitude (M) 4.1 for this event, which is the largest in Alberta in the past decade. Similar to other recent M ∼ 3 earthquakes near Fox Creek, the 2016 January 12 earthquake exhibits a dominant strike-slip (strike = 184°) mechanism with limited non-double-couple components (∼22 per cent). This resolved focal mechanism, which is also supported by forward modelling and P-wave first motion analysis, indicates an NE-SW oriented compressional axis consistent with the maximum compressive horizontal stress orientations delineated from borehole breakouts. Further detection analysis on industry-contributed recordings unveils 1108 smaller events within 3 km radius of the epicentre of the main event, showing a close spatial-temporal relation to a nearby HF well. The majority of the detected events are located above the basement, comparable to the injection depth (3.5 km) on the Duvernay shale Formation. The spatial distribution of this earthquake cluster further suggests that (1) the source of the sequence is an N-S-striking fault system and (2) these earthquakes were induced by an HF well close to but different from the well that triggered a previous (January 2015) earthquake swarm. Reactivation of pre-existing, N-S oriented faults analogous to the Pine Creek fault zone, which was reported by earlier studies of active source seismic and aeromagnetic data, are likely responsible for the occurrence of the

A Preliminary Analysis on the Dynamics of the Ms8.0 Great Wenchuan, Sichuan, China Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, W.

2008-12-01

On May 12, 2008, a huge earthquake with magnitude Ms8.0 occurred in the Wenhuan, Sichuan Province of China. This event was the most devastating earthquake in the mainland of China since the 1976 M7.8 Tangshan earthquake. It resulted in tremendous losses of life and property. So far, there are 69,181 persons killed, and 18,522 still missing. Due to occur in the mountainous area, this great earthquake and the following thousands aftershocks also caused many other geological disasters, such as landslide, mud-rock flow and "quake lakes" which formed by landslide-induced reservoirs. This earthquake occurred along the Longmenshan fault, as the result of motion on a northeast striking reverse fault or thrust fault on the northwestern margin of the Sichuan Basin. The earthquake's epicenter and focal-mechanism are consistent with it having occurred as the result of movement on the Longmenshan fault or a tectonically related fault. The earthquake reflects tectonic stresses resulting from the convergence of crustal material slowly moving from the high Tibetan Plateau, to the west, against strong crust underlying the Sichuan Basin and southeastern China. In this study, the spatial and temporal distribution of the stress on the fault plane of this great earthquake is estimated from the inversion results (Chen Ji, 2008) by solving the elastodynamic equations. Then, the dynamic source parameters are determined and the relations between the shear stress and the slip, the shear stress and the slip-rate for all grid positions on the fault are investigated. Finally, the frictional law for the source rupture is inferred from the dynamic source parameters. Based on the obtained dynamic source parameters, we try to rebuild the dynamic rupture process of this event and discuss the characteristics of this great earthquake.

Neuronal integration of dynamic sources: Bayesian learning and Bayesian inference.

Science.gov (United States)

Siegelmann, Hava T; Holzman, Lars E

2010-09-01

One of the brain's most basic functions is integrating sensory data from diverse sources. This ability causes us to question whether the neural system is computationally capable of intelligently integrating data, not only when sources have known, fixed relative dependencies but also when it must determine such relative weightings based on dynamic conditions, and then use these learned weightings to accurately infer information about the world. We suggest that the brain is, in fact, fully capable of computing this parallel task in a single network and describe a neural inspired circuit with this property. Our implementation suggests the possibility that evidence learning requires a more complex organization of the network than was previously assumed, where neurons have different specialties, whose emergence brings the desired adaptivity seen in human online inference.

Determine Earthquake Rupture Directivity Using Taiwan TSMIP Strong Motion Waveforms

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Kaiwen; Chi, Wu-Cheng; Lai, Ying-Ju; Gung, YuanCheng

2013-04-01

Inverting seismic waveforms for the finite fault source parameters is important for studying the physics of earthquake rupture processes. It is also significant to image seismogenic structures in urban areas. Here we analyze the finite-source process and test for the causative fault plane using the accelerograms recorded by the Taiwan Strong-Motion Instrumentation Program (TSMIP) stations. The point source parameters for the mainshock and aftershocks were first obtained by complete waveform moment tensor inversions. We then use the seismograms generated by the aftershocks as empirical Green's functions (EGFs) to retrieve the apparent source time functions (ASTFs) of near-field stations using projected Landweber deconvolution approach. The method for identifying the fault plane relies on the spatial patterns of the apparent source time function durations which depend on the angle between rupture direction and the take-off angle and azimuth of the ray. These derived duration patterns then are compared with the theoretical patterns, which are functions of the following parameters, including focal depth, epicentral distance, average crustal 1D velocity, fault plane attitude, and rupture direction on the fault plane. As a result, the ASTFs derived from EGFs can be used to infer the ruptured fault plane and the rupture direction. Finally we used part of the catalogs to study important seismogenic structures in the area near Chiayi, Taiwan, where a damaging earthquake has occurred about a century ago. The preliminary results show a strike-slip earthquake on 22 October 1999 (Mw 5.6) has ruptured unilaterally toward SSW on a sub-vertical fault. The procedure developed from this study can be applied to other strong motion waveforms recorded from other earthquakes to better understand their kinematic source parameters.

Evaluation of Earthquake-Induced Effects on Neighbouring Faults and Volcanoes: Application to the 2016 Pedernales Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Bejar, M.; Alvarez Gomez, J. A.; Staller, A.; Luna, M. P.; Perez Lopez, R.; Monserrat, O.; Chunga, K.; Herrera, G.; Jordá, L.; Lima, A.; Martínez-Díaz, J. J.

2017-12-01

It has long been recognized that earthquakes change the stress in the upper crust around the fault rupture and can influence the short-term behaviour of neighbouring faults and volcanoes. Rapid estimates of these stress changes can provide the authorities managing the post-disaster situation with a useful tool to identify and monitor potential threads and to update the estimates of seismic and volcanic hazard in a region. Space geodesy is now routinely used following an earthquake to image the displacement of the ground and estimate the rupture geometry and the distribution of slip. Using the obtained source model, it is possible to evaluate the remaining moment deficit and to infer the stress changes on nearby faults and volcanoes produced by the earthquake, which can be used to identify which faults and volcanoes are brought closer to failure or activation. Although these procedures are commonly used today, the transference of these results to the authorities managing the post-disaster situation is not straightforward and thus its usefulness is reduced in practice. Here we propose a methodology to evaluate the potential influence of an earthquake on nearby faults and volcanoes and create easy-to-understand maps for decision-making support after an earthquake. We apply this methodology to the Mw 7.8, 2016 Ecuador earthquake. Using Sentinel-1 SAR and continuous GPS data, we measure the coseismic ground deformation and estimate the distribution of slip. Then we use this model to evaluate the moment deficit on the subduction interface and changes of stress on the surrounding faults and volcanoes. The results are compared with the seismic and volcanic events that have occurred after the earthquake. We discuss potential and limits of the methodology and the lessons learnt from discussion with local authorities.

Adapting Controlled-source Coherence Analysis to Dense Array Data in Earthquake Seismology

Science.gov (United States)

Schwarz, B.; Sigloch, K.; Nissen-Meyer, T.

2017-12-01

Exploration seismology deals with highly coherent wave fields generated by repeatable controlled sources and recorded by dense receiver arrays, whose geometry is tailored to back-scattered energy normally neglected in earthquake seismology. Owing to these favorable conditions, stacking and coherence analysis are routinely employed to suppress incoherent noise and regularize the data, thereby strongly contributing to the success of subsequent processing steps, including migration for the imaging of back-scattering interfaces or waveform tomography for the inversion of velocity structure. Attempts have been made to utilize wave field coherence on the length scales of passive-source seismology, e.g. for the imaging of transition-zone discontinuities or the core-mantle-boundary using reflected precursors. Results are however often deteriorated due to the sparse station coverage and interference of faint back-scattered with transmitted phases. USArray sampled wave fields generated by earthquake sources at an unprecedented density and similar array deployments are ongoing or planned in Alaska, the Alps and Canada. This makes the local coherence of earthquake data an increasingly valuable resource to exploit.Building on the experience in controlled-source surveys, we aim to extend the well-established concept of beam-forming to the richer toolbox that is nowadays used in seismic exploration. We suggest adapted strategies for local data coherence analysis, where summation is performed with operators that extract the local slope and curvature of wave fronts emerging at the receiver array. Besides estimating wave front properties, we demonstrate that the inherent data summation can also be used to generate virtual station responses at intermediate locations where no actual deployment was performed. Owing to the fact that stacking acts as a directional filter, interfering coherent wave fields can be efficiently separated from each other by means of coherent subtraction. We

Earthquake source parameters along the Hellenic subduction zone and numerical simulations of historical tsunamis in the Eastern Mediterranean

Science.gov (United States)

Yolsal-Çevikbilen, Seda; Taymaz, Tuncay

2012-04-01

We studied source mechanism parameters and slip distributions of earthquakes with Mw ≥ 5.0 occurred during 2000-2008 along the Hellenic subduction zone by using teleseismic P- and SH-waveform inversion methods. In addition, the major and well-known earthquake-induced Eastern Mediterranean tsunamis (e.g., 365, 1222, 1303, 1481, 1494, 1822 and 1948) were numerically simulated and several hypothetical tsunami scenarios were proposed to demonstrate the characteristics of tsunami waves, propagations and effects of coastal topography. The analogy of current plate boundaries, earthquake source mechanisms, various earthquake moment tensor catalogues and several empirical self-similarity equations, valid for global or local scales, were used to assume conceivable source parameters which constitute the initial and boundary conditions in simulations. Teleseismic inversion results showed that earthquakes along the Hellenic subduction zone can be classified into three major categories: [1] focal mechanisms of the earthquakes exhibiting E-W extension within the overriding Aegean plate; [2] earthquakes related to the African-Aegean convergence; and [3] focal mechanisms of earthquakes lying within the subducting African plate. Normal faulting mechanisms with left-lateral strike slip components were observed at the eastern part of the Hellenic subduction zone, and we suggest that they were probably concerned with the overriding Aegean plate. However, earthquakes involved in the convergence between the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean lithospheres indicated thrust faulting mechanisms with strike slip components, and they had shallow focal depths (h < 45 km). Deeper earthquakes mainly occurred in the subducting African plate, and they presented dominantly strike slip faulting mechanisms. Slip distributions on fault planes showed both complex and simple rupture propagations with respect to the variation of source mechanism and faulting geometry. We calculated low stress drop

Constraints on behaviour of a mining‐induced earthquake inferred from laboratory rock mechanics experiments

Science.gov (United States)

McGarr, Arthur F.; Johnston, Malcolm J.; Boettcher, M.; Heesakkers, V.; Reches, Z.

2013-01-01

On December 12, 2004, an earthquake of magnitude 2.2, located in the TauTona Gold Mine at a depth of about 3.65 km in the ancient Pretorius fault zone, was recorded by the in-mine borehole seismic network, yielding an excellent set of ground motion data recorded at hypocentral distances of several km. From these data, the seismic moment tensor, indicating mostly normal faulting with a small implosive component, and the radiated energy were measured; the deviatoric component of the moment tensor was estimated to be M0 = 2.3×1012 N·m and the radiated energy ER = 5.4×108 J. This event caused extensive damage along tunnels within the Pretorius fault zone. What rendered this earthquake of particular interest was the underground investigation of the complex pattern of exposed rupture surfaces combined with laboratory testing of rock samples retrieved from the ancient fault zone (Heesakkers et al.2011a, 2011b). Event 12/12 2004 was the result of fault slip across at least four nonparallel fault surfaces; 25 mm of slip was measured at one location on the rupture segment that is most parallel with a fault plane inferred from the seismic moment tensor, suggesting that this segment accounted for much of the total seismic deformation. By applying a recently developed technique based on biaxial stick-slip friction experiments (McGarr2012, 2013) to the seismic results, together with the 25 mm slip observed underground, we estimated a maximum slip rate of at least 6.6 m/s, which is consistent with the observed damage to tunnels in the rupture zone. Similarly, the stress drop and apparent stress were found to be correspondingly high at 21.9 MPa and 6.6 MPa, respectively. The ambient state of stress, measured at the approximate depth of the earthquake but away from the influence of mining, in conjunction with laboratory measurements of the strength of the fault zone cataclasites, indicates that during rupture of the M 2.2 event, the normal stress acting on the large-slip fault

Quantifying variability in earthquake rupture models using multidimensional scaling: application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

KAUST Repository

Razafindrakoto, Hoby

2015-04-22

Finite-fault earthquake source inversion is an ill-posed inverse problem leading to non-unique solutions. In addition, various fault parametrizations and input data may have been used by different researchers for the same earthquake. Such variability leads to large intra-event variability in the inferred rupture models. One way to understand this problem is to develop robust metrics to quantify model variability. We propose a Multi Dimensional Scaling (MDS) approach to compare rupture models quantitatively. We consider normalized squared and grey-scale metrics that reflect the variability in the location, intensity and geometry of the source parameters. We test the approach on two-dimensional random fields generated using a von Kármán autocorrelation function and varying its spectral parameters. The spread of points in the MDS solution indicates different levels of model variability. We observe that the normalized squared metric is insensitive to variability of spectral parameters, whereas the grey-scale metric is sensitive to small-scale changes in geometry. From this benchmark, we formulate a similarity scale to rank the rupture models. As case studies, we examine inverted models from the Source Inversion Validation (SIV) exercise and published models of the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake, allowing us to test our approach for a case with a known reference model and one with an unknown true solution. The normalized squared and grey-scale metrics are respectively sensitive to the overall intensity and the extension of the three classes of slip (very large, large, and low). Additionally, we observe that a three-dimensional MDS configuration is preferable for models with large variability. We also find that the models for the Tohoku earthquake derived from tsunami data and their corresponding predictions cluster with a systematic deviation from other models. We demonstrate the stability of the MDS point-cloud using a number of realizations and jackknife tests, for

Quantifying variability in earthquake rupture models using multidimensional scaling: application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

KAUST Repository

Razafindrakoto, Hoby; Mai, Paul Martin; Genton, Marc G.; Zhang, Ling; Thingbaijam, Kiran Kumar

2015-01-01

Finite-fault earthquake source inversion is an ill-posed inverse problem leading to non-unique solutions. In addition, various fault parametrizations and input data may have been used by different researchers for the same earthquake. Such variability leads to large intra-event variability in the inferred rupture models. One way to understand this problem is to develop robust metrics to quantify model variability. We propose a Multi Dimensional Scaling (MDS) approach to compare rupture models quantitatively. We consider normalized squared and grey-scale metrics that reflect the variability in the location, intensity and geometry of the source parameters. We test the approach on two-dimensional random fields generated using a von Kármán autocorrelation function and varying its spectral parameters. The spread of points in the MDS solution indicates different levels of model variability. We observe that the normalized squared metric is insensitive to variability of spectral parameters, whereas the grey-scale metric is sensitive to small-scale changes in geometry. From this benchmark, we formulate a similarity scale to rank the rupture models. As case studies, we examine inverted models from the Source Inversion Validation (SIV) exercise and published models of the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake, allowing us to test our approach for a case with a known reference model and one with an unknown true solution. The normalized squared and grey-scale metrics are respectively sensitive to the overall intensity and the extension of the three classes of slip (very large, large, and low). Additionally, we observe that a three-dimensional MDS configuration is preferable for models with large variability. We also find that the models for the Tohoku earthquake derived from tsunami data and their corresponding predictions cluster with a systematic deviation from other models. We demonstrate the stability of the MDS point-cloud using a number of realizations and jackknife tests, for

Impact of earthquake source complexity and land elevation data resolution on tsunami hazard assessment and fatality estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Muhammad, Ario; Goda, Katsuichiro

2018-03-01

This study investigates the impact of model complexity in source characterization and digital elevation model (DEM) resolution on the accuracy of tsunami hazard assessment and fatality estimation through a case study in Padang, Indonesia. Two types of earthquake source models, i.e. complex and uniform slip models, are adopted by considering three resolutions of DEMs, i.e. 150 m, 50 m, and 10 m. For each of the three grid resolutions, 300 complex source models are generated using new statistical prediction models of earthquake source parameters developed from extensive finite-fault models of past subduction earthquakes, whilst 100 uniform slip models are constructed with variable fault geometry without slip heterogeneity. The results highlight that significant changes to tsunami hazard and fatality estimates are observed with regard to earthquake source complexity and grid resolution. Coarse resolution (i.e. 150 m) leads to inaccurate tsunami hazard prediction and fatality estimation, whilst 50-m and 10-m resolutions produce similar results. However, velocity and momentum flux are sensitive to the grid resolution and hence, at least 10-m grid resolution needs to be implemented when considering flow-based parameters for tsunami hazard and risk assessments. In addition, the results indicate that the tsunami hazard parameters and fatality number are more sensitive to the complexity of earthquake source characterization than the grid resolution. Thus, the uniform models are not recommended for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessments. Finally, the findings confirm that uncertainties of tsunami hazard level and fatality in terms of depth, velocity and momentum flux can be captured and visualized through the complex source modeling approach. From tsunami risk management perspectives, this indeed creates big data, which are useful for making effective and robust decisions.

Source Parameters from Full Moment Tensor Inversions of Potentially Induced Earthquakes in Western Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, R.; Gu, Y. J.; Schultz, R.; Kim, A.; Chen, Y.

2015-12-01

During the past four years, the number of earthquakes with magnitudes greater than three has substantially increased in the southern section of Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB). While some of these events are likely associated with tectonic forces, especially along the foothills of the Canadian Rockies, a significant fraction occurred in previously quiescent regions and has been linked to waste water disposal or hydraulic fracturing. A proper assessment of the origin and source properties of these 'induced earthquakes' requires careful analyses and modeling of regional broadband data, which steadily improved during the past 8 years due to recent establishments of regional broadband seismic networks such as CRANE, RAVEN and TD. Several earthquakes, especially those close to fracking activities (e.g. Fox creek town, Alberta) are analyzed. Our preliminary full moment tensor inversion results show maximum horizontal compressional orientations (P-axis) along the northeast-southwest orientation, which agree with the regional stress directions from borehole breakout data and the P-axis of historical events. The decomposition of those moment tensors shows evidence of strike-slip mechanism with near vertical fault plane solutions, which are comparable to the focal mechanisms of injection induced earthquakes in Oklahoma. Minimal isotropic components have been observed, while a modest percentage of compensated-linear-vector-dipole (CLVD) components, which have been linked to fluid migraition, may be required to match the waveforms. To further evaluate the non-double-couple components, we compare the outcomes of full, deviatoric and pure double couple (DC) inversions using multiple frequency ranges and phases. Improved location and depth information from a novel grid search greatly assists the identification and classification of earthquakes in potential connection with fluid injection or extraction. Overall, a systematic comparison of the source attributes of

Earthquake source scaling and self-similarity estimation from stacking P and S spectra

Science.gov (United States)

Prieto, GermáN. A.; Shearer, Peter M.; Vernon, Frank L.; Kilb, Debi

2004-08-01

We study the scaling relationships of source parameters and the self-similarity of earthquake spectra by analyzing a cluster of over 400 small earthquakes (ML = 0.5 to 3.4) recorded by the Anza seismic network in southern California. We compute P, S, and preevent noise spectra from each seismogram using a multitaper technique and approximate source and receiver terms by iteratively stacking the spectra. To estimate scaling relationships, we average the spectra in size bins based on their relative moment. We correct for attenuation by using the smallest moment bin as an empirical Green's function (EGF) for the stacked spectra in the larger moment bins. The shapes of the log spectra agree within their estimated uncertainties after shifting along the ω-3 line expected for self-similarity of the source spectra. We also estimate corner frequencies and radiated energy from the relative source spectra using a simple source model. The ratio between radiated seismic energy and seismic moment (proportional to apparent stress) is nearly constant with increasing moment over the magnitude range of our EGF-corrected data (ML = 1.8 to 3.4). Corner frequencies vary inversely as the cube root of moment, as expected from the observed self-similarity in the spectra. The ratio between P and S corner frequencies is observed to be 1.6 ± 0.2. We obtain values for absolute moment and energy by calibrating our results to local magnitudes for these earthquakes. This yields a S to P energy ratio of 9 ± 1.5 and a value of apparent stress of about 1 MPa.

Modeling subduction earthquake sources in the central-western region of Colombia using waveform inversion of body waves

Science.gov (United States)

Monsalve-Jaramillo, Hugo; Valencia-Mina, William; Cano-Saldaña, Leonardo; Vargas, Carlos A.

2018-05-01

Source parameters of four earthquakes located within the Wadati-Benioff zone of the Nazca plate subducting beneath the South American plate in Colombia were determined. The seismic moments for these events were recalculated and their approximate equivalent rupture area, slip distribution and stress drop were estimated. The source parameters for these earthquakes were obtained by deconvolving multiple events through teleseismic analysis of body waves recorded in long period stations and with simultaneous inversion of P and SH waves. The calculated source time functions for these events showed different stages that suggest that these earthquakes can reasonably be thought of being composed of two subevents. Even though two of the overall focal mechanisms obtained yielded similar results to those reported by the CMT catalogue, the two other mechanisms showed a clear difference compared to those officially reported. Despite this, it appropriate to mention that the mechanisms inverted in this work agree well with the expected orientation of faulting at that depth as well as with the wave forms they are expected to produce. In some of the solutions achieved, one of the two subevents exhibited a focal mechanism considerably different from the total earthquake mechanism; this could be interpreted as the result of a slight deviation from the overall motion due the complex stress field as well as the possibility of a combination of different sources of energy release analogous to the ones that may occur in deeper earthquakes. In those cases, the subevents with very different focal mechanism compared to the total earthquake mechanism had little contribution to the final solution and thus little contribution to the total amount of energy released.

Earthquakes, gravity, and the origin of the Bali Basin: An example of a Nascent Continental Fold-and-Thrust Belt

Science.gov (United States)

McCaffrey, Robert; Nabelek, John

1987-01-01

We infer from the bathymetry and gravity field and from the source mechanisms and depths of the eight largest earthquakes in the Bali region that the Bali Basin is a downwarp in the crust of the Sunda Shelf produced and maintained by thrusting along the Flores back arc thrust zone. Earthquake source mechanisms and focal depths are inferred from the inversion of long-period P and SH waves for all events and short-period P waves for two of the events. Centroidal depths that give the best fit to the seismograms range from 10 to 18 km, but uncertainties in depth allow a range from 7 to 24 km. The P wave nodal planes that dip south at 13° to 35° (±7°) strike roughly parallel to the volcanic arc and are consistent with thrusting of crust of the Bali Basin beneath it. The positions of the earthquakes with respect to crustal features inferred from seismic and gravity data suggest that the earthquakes occur in the basement along the western end of the Flores thrust zone. The slip direction for the back arc thrust zone inferred from the orientation of the earthquake slip vectors indicates that the thrusting in the Bali Basin is probably part of the overall plate convergence, as it roughly coincides with the convergence direction between the Sunda arc and the Indian Ocean plate. Summation of seismic moments of earthquakes between 1960 and 1985 suggests a minimum rate of convergence across the thrust zone of 4 ± 2 mm/a. The presence of back arc thrusting suggests that some coupling between the Indian Ocean plate and the Sunda arc occurs but mechanisms such as continental collision or a shallow subduction of the Indian Ocean plate probably can be ruled out. The present tectonic setting and structure of the Bali Basin is comparable to the early forelands of the Andes or western North America in that a fold-and-thrust belt is forming on the continental side of an arc-trench system at which oceanic lithosphere is being subducted. The Bali Basin is flanked by the Tertiary Java

Seismotectonics of Western Turkey: A Synthesis of Source Parameters and Rupture Histories of Recent Earthquakes

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Taymaz, T.; Tan, O.; Yolsal, S.

2004-12-01

The Aegean region, including western Turkey and Greece, is indeed one of the most seismically active and rapidly deforming continental domains in the Earth. The wide range of deformational processes occurring in this region means that the eastern Mediterranean provides a unique opportunity to improve our understanding of the complex kinematics of continental collision, including strike-slip faulting and crustal extension, as well as associated seismicity and volcanism. The tectonic evolution of the Eastern Mediterranean region is dominated by effects of subduction along the Hellenic (Aegean) arc and of continental collision in eastern Anatolia and the Caucasus. Northward subduction of the African plate beneath western Anatolia and the Aegean region is causing crustal extension in the overlying Aegean province. The interplay between dynamic effects of the relative motions of adjoining plates thus controls large-scale crustal deformation and the associated earthquake activity in Turkey. The Aegean region has been subject to extension since Miocene time, and this extension has left a pronounced expression in the present-day topography. It is further widely accepted that the rapid extension observed in western Turkey is mainly accommodated by large active normal faults that control the geomorphology which is dominated by a series of E-W trending normal-fault-bounded horst and graben structures; the N-S extension inferred from these structures is consistent with regional earthquake focal mechanisms. The E-W trending Menderes graben, the NE-SW trending Burdur, Acigol and Baklan, and NW-SE trending Dinar and Sultandag-Aksehir basins all bounded by large faults form a system of half-graben whose orientation is evident in both the topography and the tilting of Neogene sediments adjacent to them. We have studied source mechanisms and rupture histories of ˜20 earthquakes using body-waveform modelling, and have compared the shapes and amplitudes of teleseismic long-period P

Mechanical coupling between earthquakes and volcanoes inferred from stress transfer models: evidence from Vesuvio, Etna and Alban Hills (Italy)

Science.gov (United States)

Cocco, M.; Feuillet, N.; Nostro, C.; Musumeci, C.

2003-04-01

We investigate the mechanical interactions between tectonic faults and volcanic sources through elastic stress transfer and discuss the results of several applications to Italian active volcanoes. We first present the stress modeling results that point out a two-way coupling between Vesuvius eruptions and historical earthquakes in Southern Apennines, which allow us to provide a physical interpretation of their statistical correlation. Therefore, we explore the elastic stress interaction between historical eruptions at the Etna volcano and the largest earthquakes in Eastern Sicily and Calabria. We show that the large 1693 seismic event caused an increase of compressive stress along the rift zone, which can be associated to the lack of flank eruptions of the Etna volcano for about 70 years after the earthquake. Moreover, the largest Etna eruptions preceded by few decades the large 1693 seismic event. Our modeling results clearly suggest that all these catastrophic events are tectonically coupled. We also investigate the effect of elastic stress perturbations on the instrumental seismicity caused by magma inflation at depth both at the Etna and at the Alban Hills volcanoes. In particular, we model the seismicity pattern at the Alban Hills volcano (central Italy) during a seismic swarm occurred in 1989-90 and we interpret it in terms of Coulomb stress changes caused by magmatic processes in an extensional tectonic stress field. We verify that the earthquakes occur in areas of Coulomb stress increase and that their faulting mechanisms are consistent with the stress perturbation induced by the volcanic source. Our results suggest a link between faults and volcanic sources, which we interpret as a tectonic coupling explaining the seismicity in a large area surrounding the volcanoes.

Uncertainty Quantification in Earthquake Source Characterization with Probabilistic Centroid Moment Tensor Inversion

Science.gov (United States)

Dettmer, J.; Benavente, R. F.; Cummins, P. R.

2017-12-01

This work considers probabilistic, non-linear centroid moment tensor inversion of data from earthquakes at teleseismic distances. The moment tensor is treated as deviatoric and centroid location is parametrized with fully unknown latitude, longitude, depth and time delay. The inverse problem is treated as fully non-linear in a Bayesian framework and the posterior density is estimated with interacting Markov chain Monte Carlo methods which are implemented in parallel and allow for chain interaction. The source mechanism and location, including uncertainties, are fully described by the posterior probability density and complex trade-offs between various metrics are studied. These include the percent of double couple component as well as fault orientation and the probabilistic results are compared to results from earthquake catalogs. Additional focus is on the analysis of complex events which are commonly not well described by a single point source. These events are studied by jointly inverting for multiple centroid moment tensor solutions. The optimal number of sources is estimated by the Bayesian information criterion to ensure parsimonious solutions. [Supported by NSERC.

Earthquake prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ward, P.L.

1978-01-01

The state of the art of earthquake prediction is summarized, the possible responses to such prediction are examined, and some needs in the present prediction program and in research related to use of this new technology are reviewed. Three basic aspects of earthquake prediction are discussed: location of the areas where large earthquakes are most likely to occur, observation within these areas of measurable changes (earthquake precursors) and determination of the area and time over which the earthquake will occur, and development of models of the earthquake source in order to interpret the precursors reliably. 6 figures

A long source area of the 1906 Colombia-Ecuador earthquake estimated from observed tsunami waveforms

Science.gov (United States)

Yamanaka, Yusuke; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Shiina, Takahiro

2017-12-01

The 1906 Colombia-Ecuador earthquake induced both strong seismic motions and a tsunami, the most destructive earthquake in the history of the Colombia-Ecuador subduction zone. The tsunami propagated across the Pacific Ocean, and its waveforms were observed at tide gauge stations in countries including Panama, Japan, and the USA. This study conducted slip inverse analysis for the 1906 earthquake using these waveforms. A digital dataset of observed tsunami waveforms at the Naos Island (Panama) and Honolulu (USA) tide gauge stations, where the tsunami was clearly observed, was first produced by consulting documents. Next, the two waveforms were applied in an inverse analysis as the target waveform. The results of this analysis indicated that the moment magnitude of the 1906 earthquake ranged from 8.3 to 8.6. Moreover, the dominant slip occurred in the northern part of the assumed source region near the coast of Colombia, where little significant seismicity has occurred, rather than in the southern part. The results also indicated that the source area, with significant slip, covered a long distance, including the southern, central, and northern parts of the region.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

The GIS and analysis of earthquake damage distribution of the 1303 Hongtong M=8 earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Meng-Tan; Jin, Xue-Shen; An, Wei-Ping; Lü, Xiao-Jian

2004-07-01

The geography information system of the 1303 Hongton M=8 earthquake has been established. Using the spatial analysis function of GIS, the spatial distribution characteristics of damage and isoseismal of the earthquake are studies. By comparing with the standard earthquake intensity attenuation relationship, the abnormal damage distribution of the earthquake is found, so the relationship of the abnormal distribution with tectonics, site condition and basin are analyzed. In this paper, the influence on the ground motion generated by earthquake source and the underground structures near source also are studied. The influence on seismic zonation, anti-earthquake design, earthquake prediction and earthquake emergency responding produced by the abnormal density distribution are discussed.

The evaluation of the earthquake hazard using the exponential distribution method for different seismic source regions in and around Ağrı

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: ybayrak@agri.edu.tr [Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen University, Ağrı/Turkey (Turkey); Türker, Tuğba, E-mail: tturker@ktu.edu.tr [Karadeniz Technical University, Department of Geophysics, Trabzon/Turkey (Turkey)

2016-04-18

The aim of this study; were determined of the earthquake hazard using the exponential distribution method for different seismic sources of the Ağrı and vicinity. A homogeneous earthquake catalog has been examined for 1900-2015 (the instrumental period) with 456 earthquake data for Ağrı and vicinity. Catalog; Bogazici University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (Burke), National Earthquake Monitoring Center (NEMC), TUBITAK, TURKNET the International Seismological Center (ISC), Seismological Research Institute (IRIS) has been created using different catalogs like. Ağrı and vicinity are divided into 7 different seismic source regions with epicenter distribution of formed earthquakes in the instrumental period, focal mechanism solutions, and existing tectonic structures. In the study, the average magnitude value are calculated according to the specified magnitude ranges for 7 different seismic source region. According to the estimated calculations for 7 different seismic source regions, the biggest difference corresponding with the classes of determined magnitudes between observed and expected cumulative probabilities are determined. The recurrence period and earthquake occurrence number per year are estimated of occurring earthquakes in the Ağrı and vicinity. As a result, 7 different seismic source regions are determined occurrence probabilities of an earthquake 3.2 magnitude, Region 1 was greater than 6.7 magnitude, Region 2 was greater than than 4.7 magnitude, Region 3 was greater than 5.2 magnitude, Region 4 was greater than 6.2 magnitude, Region 5 was greater than 5.7 magnitude, Region 6 was greater than 7.2 magnitude, Region 7 was greater than 6.2 magnitude. The highest observed magnitude 7 different seismic source regions of Ağrı and vicinity are estimated 7 magnitude in Region 6. Region 6 are determined according to determining magnitudes, occurrence years of earthquakes in the future years, respectively, 7.2 magnitude was in 158

Holocene deltaic succession recording millennium-scale subsidence trend near the source region of the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake: An example from the Tsugaruishi plain, northeast Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Niwa, Y.; Sugai, T.; Matsushima, Y.; Toda, S.

2017-12-01

For clarification of megathrust earthquake cycle with recurrence interval of several hundreds to about a thousand years, crustal movement trend on a timescale of 103-104 years can be basic and important data. Well-dated Holocene sedimentary succession provides useful information for estimation of crustal movement trend on a timescale of 103 - 104 years. Here we collected three sediment cores, TGI1, TGI2, and TGI3, from the Tsugaruishi delta plain on the central Sanriku coast, which is near the source region of the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake and where discrepancies in crustal movement have been reported between uplift on a timescale of 105 years inferred from marine terrace versus subsidence on a timescale of 101-102 years from geodetic measurement. We recognized a Holocene deltaic succession in all three cores; basal gravel of alluvium, floodplain sand and mud, inner bay mud, prodelta delta front sand and mud, and fluvial sand and gravel, from lower to upper. In core TGI3, from the farthest inland site, the intertidal sediment facies, deposited from 7500 to 7000 cal BP, and the overlying 6-m-thick delta to floodplain facies, deposited from 7000 to 5000 cal BP, are both below the present sea level. Because a sea-level highstand due to hydroisostatic uplift around Japan occurred in the mid-Holocene, we inferred that the Tsugaruishi plain subsided during the Holocene, and the estimated subsidence rate, 1.1-1.9 mm/yr at maximum, is consistent with the recently reported subsidence rate along the southern Sanriku coast. The results of this study confirm that the central to southern Sanriku coast is subsiding, in contrast to an interpretation based on the study of marine terraces that this part of the coast is uplifting. The Holocene deltaic succession presented here will be useful for constructing an earthquake cycle model related to plate subduction.

Source Parameter Inversion for Recent Great Earthquakes from a Decade-long Observation of Global Gravity Fields

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Shin-Chan; Riva, Ricccardo; Sauber, Jeanne; Okal, Emile

2013-01-01

We quantify gravity changes after great earthquakes present within the 10 year long time series of monthly Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity fields. Using spherical harmonic normal-mode formulation, the respective source parameters of moment tensor and double-couple were estimated. For the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake, the gravity data indicate a composite moment of 1.2x10(exp 23)Nm with a dip of 10deg, in agreement with the estimate obtained at ultralong seismic periods. For the 2010 Maule earthquake, the GRACE solutions range from 2.0 to 2.7x10(exp 22)Nm for dips of 12deg-24deg and centroid depths within the lower crust. For the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, the estimated scalar moments range from 4.1 to 6.1x10(exp 22)Nm, with dips of 9deg-19deg and centroid depths within the lower crust. For the 2012 Indian Ocean strike-slip earthquakes, the gravity data delineate a composite moment of 1.9x10(exp 22)Nm regardless of the centroid depth, comparing favorably with the total moment of the main ruptures and aftershocks. The smallest event we successfully analyzed with GRACE was the 2007 Bengkulu earthquake with M(sub 0) approx. 5.0x10(exp 21)Nm. We found that the gravity data constrain the focal mechanism with the centroid only within the upper and lower crustal layers for thrust events. Deeper sources (i.e., in the upper mantle) could not reproduce the gravity observation as the larger rigidity and bulk modulus at mantle depths inhibit the interior from changing its volume, thus reducing the negative gravity component. Focal mechanisms and seismic moments obtained in this study represent the behavior of the sources on temporal and spatial scales exceeding the seismic and geodetic spectrum.

Active Thrusting Offshore Mount Lebanon: Source of the Tsunamigenic A.D. 551 Beirut-Tripoli Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Tapponnier, P.; Elias, A.; Singh, S.; King, G.; Briais, A.; Daeron, M.; Carton, H.; Sursock, A.; Jacques, E.; Jomaa, R.; Klinger, Y.

2007-12-01

On July 9, AD 551, a large earthquake, followed by a tsunami destroyed most of the coastal cities of Phoenicia (modern-day Lebanon). This was arguably one of the most devastating historical submarine earthquakes in the eastern Mediterranean. Geophysical data from the Shalimar survey unveils the source of this Mw=7.5 event: rupture of the offshore, hitherto unknown, 100?150 km-long, active, east-dipping Mount Lebanon Thrust (MLT). Deep-towed sonar swaths along the base of prominent bathymetric escarpments reveal fresh, west facing seismic scarps that cut the sediment-smoothed seafloor. The MLT trace comes closest (~ 8 km) to the coast between Beirut and Enfeh, where as 13 radiocarbon-calibrated ages indicate, a shoreline-fringing Vermetid bench suddenly emerged by ~ 80 cm in the 6th century AD. At Tabarja, the regular vertical separation (~ 1 m) of higher fossil benches, suggests uplift by 3 more comparable-size earthquakes since the Holocene sea-level reached a maximum ca. 7-6 ka, implying a 1500?1750 yr recurrence time. Unabated thrusting on the MLT likely orchestrated the growth of Mt. Lebanon since the late Miocene. The newly discovered MLT has been the missing piece in the Dead Sea Transform and eastern Mediterranean tectonic scheme. Identifying the source of the AD 551 event thus ends a complete reassessment of the sources of the major historical earthquakes on the various faults of the Lebanese Restraining Bend of the Levant Fault System (or Dead Sea Transform).

A new curved fault model and method development for asperities of the 1703 Genroku and 1923 Kanto earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Kobayashi, R.; Koketsu, K.

2008-12-01

Great earthquakes along the Sagami trough, where the Philippine Sea slab is subducting, have repeatedly occurred. The 1703 Genroku and 1923 (Taisho) Kanto earthquakes (M 8.2 and M 7.9, respectively) are known as typical ones, and cause severe damages in the metropolitan area. The recurrence periods of Genroku- and Taisho-type earthquakes inferred from studies of wave cut terraces are about 200-400 and 2000 years, respectively (e.g., Earthquake Research Committee, 2004). We have inferred the source process of the 1923 Kanto earthquake from geodetic, teleseismic, and strong motion data (Kobayashi and Koketsu, 2005). Two asperities of the 1923 Kanto earthquake are located around the western part of Kanagawa prefecture (the base of the Izu peninsula) and around the Miura peninsula. After we adopted an updated fault plane model, which is based on a recent model of the Philippine Sea slab, the asperity around the Miura peninsula moves to the north (Sato et al., 2005). We have also investigated the slip distribution of the 1703 Genroku earthquake. We used crustal uplift and subsidence data investigated by Shishikura (2003), and inferred the slip distribution by using the same geometry of the fault as the 1923 Kanto earthquake. The peak of slip of 16 m is located the southern part of the Boso peninsula. Shape of the upper surface of the Philippine Sea slab is important to constrain extent of the asperities well. Sato et al. (2005) presented the shape in inland part, but less information in oceanic part except for the Tokyo bay. Kimura (2006) and Takeda et al. (2007) presented the shape in oceanic part. In this study, we compiled these slab models, and planed to reanalyze the slip distributions of the 1703 and 1923 earthquakes. We developed a new curved fault plane on the plate boundary between the Philippine Sea slab and inland plate. The curved fault plane was divided into 56 triangle subfaults. Point sources for the Green's function calculations are located at centroids

Comparisons of Source Characteristics between Recent Inland Crustal Earthquake Sequences inside and outside of Niigata-Kobe Tectonic Zone, Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Somei, K.; Asano, K.; Iwata, T.; Miyakoshi, K.

2012-12-01

After the 1995 Kobe earthquake, many M7-class inland earthquakes occurred in Japan. Some of those events (e.g., the 2004 Chuetsu earthquake) occurred in a tectonic zone which is characterized as a high strain rate zone by the GPS observation (Sagiya et al., 2000) or dense distribution of active faults. That belt-like zone along the coast in Japan Sea side of Tohoku and Chubu districts, and north of Kinki district, is called as the Niigata-Kobe tectonic zone (NKTZ, Sagiya et al, 2000). We investigate seismic scaling relationship for recent inland crustal earthquake sequences in Japan and compare source characteristics between events occurring inside and outside of NKTZ. We used S-wave coda part for estimating source spectra. Source spectral ratio is obtained by S-wave coda spectral ratio between the records of large and small events occurring close to each other from nation-wide strong motion network (K-NET and KiK-net) and broad-band seismic network (F-net) to remove propagation-path and site effects. We carefully examined the commonality of the decay of coda envelopes between event-pair records and modeled the observed spectral ratio by the source spectral ratio function with assuming omega-square source model for large and small events. We estimated the corner frequencies and seismic moment (ratio) from those modeled spectral ratio function. We determined Brune's stress drops of 356 events (Mw: 3.1-6.9) in ten earthquake sequences occurring in NKTZ and six sequences occurring outside of NKTZ. Most of source spectra obey omega-square source spectra. There is no obvious systematic difference between stress drops of events in NKTZ zone and others. We may conclude that the systematic tendency of seismic source scaling of the events occurred inside and outside of NKTZ does not exist and the average source scaling relationship can be effective for inland crustal earthquakes. Acknowledgements: Waveform data were provided from K-NET, KiK-net and F-net operated by

Temporal Variation of Tectonic Tremor Activity Associated with Nearby Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Chao, K.; Van der Lee, S.; Hsu, Y. J.; Pu, H. C.

2017-12-01

Tectonic tremor and slow slip events, located downdip from the seismogenic zone, hold the key to recurring patterns of typical earthquakes. Several findings of slow aseismic slip during the prenucletion processes of nearby earthquakes have provided new insight into the study of stress transform of slow earthquakes in fault zones prior to megathrust earthquakes. However, how tectonic tremor is associated with the occurrence of nearby earthquakes remains unclear. To enhance our understanding of the stress interaction between tremor and earthquakes, we developed an algorithm for the automatic detection and location of tectonic tremor in the collisional tectonic environment in Taiwan. Our analysis of a three-year data set indicates a short-term increase in the tremor rate starting at 19 days before the 2010 ML6.4 Jiashian main shock (Chao et al., JGR, 2017). Around the time when the tremor rate began to rise, one GPS station recorded a flip in its direction of motion. We hypothesize that tremor is driven by a slow-slip event that preceded the occurrence of the shallower nearby main shock, even though the inferred slip is too small to be observed by all GPS stations. To better quantify what the necessary condition for tremor to response to nearby earthquakes is, we obtained a 13-year ambient tremor catalog from 2004 to 2016 in the same region. We examine the spatiotemporal relationship between tremor and 37 ML>=5.0 (seven events with ML>=6.0) nearby earthquakes located within 0.5 degrees to the active tremor sources. The findings from this study can enhance our understanding of the interaction among tremor, slow slip, and nearby earthquakes in the high seismic hazard regions.

Stress Drops for Oceanic Crust and Mantle Intraplate Earthquakes in the Subduction Zone of Northeastern Japan Inferred from the Spectral Inversion Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Si, H.; Ishikawa, K.; Arai, T.; Ibrahim, R.

2017-12-01

Understanding stress drop related to intraplate earthquakes in the subducting plate is very important for seismic hazard mitigation. In previous studies, Kita et al. (2015) analyzed stress drops for intraplate earthquakes under Hokkaido, Northern Japan, using S-coda wave spectral ratio analysis methods, and found that the stress drop for events occurring more than 10 km beneath the upper surface of the subducting plate (within the oceanic mantle) was larger than the stress drop for events occurring within 10 km of the upper surface of the subducting plate (in the oceanic crust). In this study, we focus on intraplate earthquakes that occur under Tohoku, Northeastern Japan, to determine whether similar stress drop differences may exist between earthquakes occurring within the upper 10 km of the subducting plate (within the oceanic crust) and those occurring deeper than 10 km (within the oceanic mantle), based on spectral inversion analysis of seismic waveforms recorded during the earthquakes. We selected 64 earthquakes with focal depths between 49-76 km and Mw 3.5-5.0 that occurred in the source area of the 2003 Miyagi-ken-oki earthquake (Mw 7.0) (region 1), and 82 earthquakes with focal depths between 49-67 km and Mw 3.5-5.5 in the source area of the 2011 Miyagi- ken-oki earthquake (Mw 7.1) (region 2). Records from the target earthquakes at 24 stations in region 1 and 21 stations in region 2 were used in the analysis. A 5-sec time window following S-wave onset was used for each station record. Borehole records of KiK-net station (MYGH04) was used as a reference station for both regions 1 and 2. We applied the spectral inversion analysis method of Matsunami et al. (2003) separately to regions 1 and 2. Our results show that stress drop generally increases with focal depth and that the stress drop for events occurring deeper than 10 km in the plate (within the oceanic mantle) were larger than the stress drop for events occurring within 10 km of the upper surface of the

Constraints on the source parameters of low-frequency earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, Amanda M.; Beroza, Gregory C.; Shelly, David R.

2016-01-01

Low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) are small repeating earthquakes that occur in conjunction with deep slow slip. Like typical earthquakes, LFEs are thought to represent shear slip on crustal faults, but when compared to earthquakes of the same magnitude, LFEs are depleted in high-frequency content and have lower corner frequencies, implying longer duration. Here we exploit this difference to estimate the duration of LFEs on the deep San Andreas Fault (SAF). We find that the M ~ 1 LFEs have typical durations of ~0.2 s. Using the annual slip rate of the deep SAF and the average number of LFEs per year, we estimate average LFE slip rates of ~0.24 mm/s. When combined with the LFE magnitude, this number implies a stress drop of ~104 Pa, 2 to 3 orders of magnitude lower than ordinary earthquakes, and a rupture velocity of 0.7 km/s, 20% of the shear wave speed. Typical earthquakes are thought to have rupture velocities of ~80–90% of the shear wave speed. Together, the slow rupture velocity, low stress drops, and slow slip velocity explain why LFEs are depleted in high-frequency content relative to ordinary earthquakes and suggest that LFE sources represent areas capable of relatively higher slip speed in deep fault zones. Additionally, changes in rheology may not be required to explain both LFEs and slow slip; the same process that governs the slip speed during slow earthquakes may also limit the rupture velocity of LFEs.

Coastal evidence for Holocene subduction-zone earthquakes and tsunamis in central Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Dure, Tina; Cisternas, Marco; Horton, Benjamin; Ely, Lisa; Nelson, Alan R.; Wesson, Robert L.; Pilarczyk, Jessica

2015-01-01

The ∼500-year historical record of seismicity along the central Chile coast (30–34°S) is characterized by a series of ∼M 8.0–8.5 earthquakes followed by low tsunamis (tsunami (>10 m), but the frequency of such large events is unknown. We extend the seismic history of central Chile through a study of a lowland stratigraphic sequence along the metropolitan coast north of Valparaíso (33°S). At this site, higher relative sea level during the mid Holocene created a tidal marsh and the accommodation space necessary for sediment that preserves earthquake and tsunami evidence. Within this 2600-yr-long sequence, we traced six laterally continuous sand beds probably deposited by high tsunamis. Plant remains that underlie the sand beds were radiocarbon dated to 6200, 5600, 5000, 4400, 3800, and 3700 cal yr BP. Sediment properties and diatom assemblages of the sand beds—for example, anomalous marine planktonic diatoms and upward fining of silt-sized diatom valves—point to a marine sediment source and high-energy deposition. Grain-size analysis shows a strong similarity between inferred tsunami deposits and modern coastal sediment. Upward fining sequences characteristic of suspension deposition are present in five of the six sand beds. Despite the lack of significant lithologic changes between the sedimentary units under- and overlying tsunami deposits, we infer that the increase in freshwater siliceous microfossils in overlying units records coseismic uplift concurrent with the deposition of five of the sand beds. During our mid-Holocene window of evidence preservation, the mean recurrence interval of earthquakes and tsunamis is ∼500 years. Our findings imply that the frequency of historical earthquakes in central Chile is not representative of the greatest earthquakes and tsunamis that the central Chilean subduction zone has produced.

Coastal evidence for Holocene subduction-zone earthquakes and tsunamis in central Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Dure, Tina; Cisternas, Marco; Horton, Benjamin; Ely, Lisa; Nelson, Alan R.; Wesson, Robert L.; Pilarczyk, Jessica

2015-01-01

The ∼500-year historical record of seismicity along the central Chile coast (30–34°S) is characterized by a series of ∼M 8.0–8.5 earthquakes followed by low tsunamis (10 m), but the frequency of such large events is unknown. We extend the seismic history of central Chile through a study of a lowland stratigraphic sequence along the metropolitan coast north of Valparaíso (33°S). At this site, higher relative sea level during the mid Holocene created a tidal marsh and the accommodation space necessary for sediment that preserves earthquake and tsunami evidence. Within this 2600-yr-long sequence, we traced six laterally continuous sand beds probably deposited by high tsunamis. Plant remains that underlie the sand beds were radiocarbon dated to 6200, 5600, 5000, 4400, 3800, and 3700 cal yr BP. Sediment properties and diatom assemblages of the sand beds—for example, anomalous marine planktonic diatoms and upward fining of silt-sized diatom valves—point to a marine sediment source and high-energy deposition. Grain-size analysis shows a strong similarity between inferred tsunami deposits and modern coastal sediment. Upward fining sequences characteristic of suspension deposition are present in five of the six sand beds. Despite the lack of significant lithologic changes between the sedimentary units under- and overlying tsunami deposits, we infer that the increase in freshwater siliceous microfossils in overlying units records coseismic uplift concurrent with the deposition of five of the sand beds. During our mid-Holocene window of evidence preservation, the mean recurrence interval of earthquakes and tsunamis is ∼500 years. Our findings imply that the frequency of historical earthquakes in central Chile is not representative of the greatest earthquakes and tsunamis that the central Chilean subduction zone has produced.

Understanding earthquakes: The key role of radar images

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atzori, Simone

2013-01-01

The investigation of the fault rupture underlying earthquakes greatly improved thanks to the spread of radar images. Following pioneer applications in the eighties, Interferometry from Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) gained a prominent role in geodesy. Its capability to measure millimetric deformations for wide areas and the increased data availability from the early nineties, made InSAR a diffused and accepted analysis tool in tectonics, though several factors contribute to reduce the data quality. With the introduction of analytical or numerical modeling, InSAR maps are used to infer the source of an earthquake by means of data inversion. Newly developed algorithms, known as InSAR time-series, allowed to further improve the data accuracy and completeness, strengthening the InSAR contribution even in the study of the inter- and post-seismic phases. In this work we describe the rationale at the base of the whole processing, showing its application to the New Zealand 2010–2011 seismic sequence

Understanding earthquakes: The key role of radar images

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Atzori, Simone, E-mail: simone.atzori@ingv.it [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome (Italy)

2013-08-21

The investigation of the fault rupture underlying earthquakes greatly improved thanks to the spread of radar images. Following pioneer applications in the eighties, Interferometry from Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) gained a prominent role in geodesy. Its capability to measure millimetric deformations for wide areas and the increased data availability from the early nineties, made InSAR a diffused and accepted analysis tool in tectonics, though several factors contribute to reduce the data quality. With the introduction of analytical or numerical modeling, InSAR maps are used to infer the source of an earthquake by means of data inversion. Newly developed algorithms, known as InSAR time-series, allowed to further improve the data accuracy and completeness, strengthening the InSAR contribution even in the study of the inter- and post-seismic phases. In this work we describe the rationale at the base of the whole processing, showing its application to the New Zealand 2010–2011 seismic sequence.

Discovery of source fault in the region without obvious active fault. Geophysical survey in the source area of the 1984 western Nagano prefecture earthquake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aoyagi, Yasuhira; Abe, Shintaro

2009-01-01

The 1984 Western Nagano Prefecture Earthquake (MJ6.8) occurred at shallow part of the southern foot of Mt. Ontake volcano, central Japan. Despite the large magnitude neither clear surface rupture nor active fault has been found around the source area. Therefore the earthquake is an issue for seismic assessment based on active fault survey. The purpose of this study is to find any tectonic geomorphologic features in the source area and to elucidate its relation to the source fault. In order to achieve it, an integrated survey with (1) micro earthquake observation, (2) airborne LIDAR, and (3) seismic reflection survey was demonstrated in the source area from 2006 to 2008. The survey area of airborne LIDAR (18 km x 4 km) covers main part of the aftershock distribution just after the mainshock. A linear zone with abrupt change of topographic roughness was found in ENE-WSW direction at the center of the LIDAR target area. River valleys flowing down to SSE direction change their directions and widths abruptly across the linear zone. Seismic reflection survey across the source region detect deformation zone just beneath the linear zone. These features of topographic and crustal deformation coincide well with the aftershock distribution. Therefore they indicate an active structure formed by the cumulative displacement of the source fault. (author)

An Earthquake Information Service with Free and Open Source Tools

Science.gov (United States)

Schroeder, M.; Stender, V.; Jüngling, S.

2015-12-01

At the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences in Potsdam, the working group Earthquakes and Volcano Physics examines the spatiotemporal behavior of earthquakes. In this context also the hazards of volcanic eruptions and tsunamis are explored. The aim is to collect related information after the occurrence of such extreme event and make them available for science and partly to the public as quickly as possible. However, the overall objective of this research is to reduce the geological risks that emanate from such natural hazards. In order to meet the stated objectives and to get a quick overview about the seismicity of a particular region and to compare the situation to historical events, a comprehensive visualization was desired. Based on the web-accessible data from the famous GFZ GEOFON network a user-friendly web mapping application was realized. Further, this web service integrates historical and current earthquake information from the USGS earthquake database, and more historical events from various other catalogues like Pacheco, International Seismological Centre (ISC) and more. This compilation of sources is unique in Earth sciences. Additionally, information about historical and current occurrences of volcanic eruptions and tsunamis are also retrievable. Another special feature in the application is the containment of times via a time shifting tool. Users can interactively vary the visualization by moving the time slider. Furthermore, the application was realized by using the newest JavaScript libraries which enables the application to run in all sizes of displays and devices. Our contribution will present the making of, the architecture behind, and few examples of the look and feel of this application.

The Implications of Strike-Slip Earthquake Source Properties on the Transform Boundary Development Process

Science.gov (United States)

Neely, J. S.; Huang, Y.; Furlong, K.

2017-12-01

Subduction-Transform Edge Propagator (STEP) faults, produced by the tearing of a subducting plate, allow us to study the development of a transform plate boundary and improve our understanding of both long-term geologic processes and short-term seismic hazards. The 280 km long San Cristobal Trough (SCT), formed by the tearing of the Australia plate as it subducts under the Pacific plate near the Solomon and Vanuatu subduction zones, shows along-strike variations in earthquake behaviors. The segment of the SCT closest to the tear rarely hosts earthquakes > Mw 6, whereas the SCT sections more than 80 - 100 km from the tear experience Mw7 earthquakes with repeated rupture along the same segments. To understand the effect of cumulative displacement on SCT seismicity, we analyze b-values, centroid-time delays and corner frequencies of the SCT earthquakes. We use the spectral ratio method based on Empirical Green's Functions (eGfs) to isolate source effects from propagation and site effects. We find high b-values along the SCT closest to the tear with values decreasing with distance before finally increasing again towards the far end of the SCT. Centroid time-delays for the Mw 7 strike-slip earthquakes increase with distance from the tear, but corner frequency estimates for a recent sequence of Mw 7 earthquakes are approximately equal, indicating a growing complexity in earthquake behavior with distance from the tear due to a displacement-driven transform boundary development process (see figure). The increasing complexity possibly stems from the earthquakes along the eastern SCT rupturing through multiple asperities resulting in multiple moment pulses. If not for the bounding Vanuatu subduction zone at the far end of the SCT, the eastern SCT section, which has experienced the most displacement, might be capable of hosting larger earthquakes. When assessing the seismic hazard of other STEP faults, cumulative fault displacement should be considered a key input in

The music of earthquakes and Earthquake Quartet #1

Science.gov (United States)

Michael, Andrew J.

2013-01-01

Earthquake Quartet #1, my composition for voice, trombone, cello, and seismograms, is the intersection of listening to earthquakes as a seismologist and performing music as a trombonist. Along the way, I realized there is a close relationship between what I do as a scientist and what I do as a musician. A musician controls the source of the sound and the path it travels through their instrument in order to make sound waves that we hear as music. An earthquake is the source of waves that travel along a path through the earth until reaching us as shaking. It is almost as if the earth is a musician and people, including seismologists, are metaphorically listening and trying to understand what the music means.

Focal mechanisms and moment magnitudes of micro-earthquakes in central Brazil by waveform inversion with quality assessment and inference of the local stress field

Science.gov (United States)

Carvalho, Juraci; Barros, Lucas Vieira; Zahradník, Jiří

2016-11-01

This paper documents an investigation on the use of full waveform inversion to retrieve focal mechanisms of 11 micro-earthquakes (Mw 0.8 to 1.4). The events represent aftershocks of a 5.0 mb earthquake that occurred on October 8, 2010 close to the city of Mara Rosa in the state of Goiás, Brazil. The main contribution of the work lies in demonstrating the feasibility of waveform inversion of such weak events. The inversion was made possible thanks to recordings available at 8 temporary seismic stations in epicentral distances of less than 8 km, at which waveforms can be successfully modeled at relatively high frequencies (1.5-2.0 Hz). On average, the fault-plane solutions obtained are in agreement with a composite focal mechanism previously calculated from first-motion polarities. They also agree with the fault geometry inferred from precise relocation of the Mara Rosa aftershock sequence. The focal mechanisms provide an estimate of the local stress field. This paper serves as a pilot study for similar investigations in intraplate regions where the stress-field investigations are difficult due to rare earthquake occurrences, and where weak events must be studied with a detailed quality assessment.

Mapping Tectonic Stress Using Earthquakes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arnold, Richard; Townend, John; Vignaux, Tony

2005-01-01

An earthquakes occurs when the forces acting on a fault overcome its intrinsic strength and cause it to slip abruptly. Understanding more specifically why earthquakes occur at particular locations and times is complicated because in many cases we do not know what these forces actually are, or indeed what processes ultimately trigger slip. The goal of this study is to develop, test, and implement a Bayesian method of reliably determining tectonic stresses using the most abundant stress gauges available - earthquakes themselves.Existing algorithms produce reasonable estimates of the principal stress directions, but yield unreliable error bounds as a consequence of the generally weak constraint on stress imposed by any single earthquake, observational errors, and an unavoidable ambiguity between the fault normal and the slip vector.A statistical treatment of the problem can take into account observational errors, combine data from multiple earthquakes in a consistent manner, and provide realistic error bounds on the estimated principal stress directions.We have developed a realistic physical framework for modelling multiple earthquakes and show how the strong physical and geometrical constraints present in this problem allow inference to be made about the orientation of the principal axes of stress in the earth's crust

Analog earthquakes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hofmann, R.B.

1995-01-01

Analogs are used to understand complex or poorly understood phenomena for which little data may be available at the actual repository site. Earthquakes are complex phenomena, and they can have a large number of effects on the natural system, as well as on engineered structures. Instrumental data close to the source of large earthquakes are rarely obtained. The rare events for which measurements are available may be used, with modfications, as analogs for potential large earthquakes at sites where no earthquake data are available. In the following, several examples of nuclear reactor and liquified natural gas facility siting are discussed. A potential use of analog earthquakes is proposed for a high-level nuclear waste (HLW) repository

History of ancient megathrust earthquakes beneath metropolitan Tokyo inferred from coastal lowland deposits

Science.gov (United States)

Mannen, Kazutaka; Yoong, Kim Haeng; Suzuki, Shigeru; Matsushima, Yoshiaki; Ota, Yuki; Kain, Claire L.; Goff, James

2018-02-01

Metropolitan Tokyo is located directly above a subduction zone that has generated two megathrust earthquakes in the past 300 years. However, the timing of older megathrusts on this margin is poorly understood. In this study, we aim to constrain the timings of past megathrust earthquakes, using coastal stratigraphy, paleoecology, radiocarbon dating and archaeological records from coastal lowlands. An investigation of 13 boreholes in the southern coastal area of metropolitan Tokyo found evidence for 4 m of uplift in a 6000-year period. However, we found that net vertical displacement in the last 1000 years is approximately zero. Results suggest that preservation of usually ephemeral lagoon sediments occurred on three occasions in the past 1000 years, and radiocarbon dating results show that the timings of these preservation episodes are close to that of major historical earthquakes. We thus attribute the intermittent preservation of the ephemeral lagoon deposits to coseismic uplift caused by the megathrust earthquakes. The candidates of the megathrust earthquakes are events that took place in 1703 CE, the 13th century, and 878 CE. Since these events produced no net vertical displacement due to inter-seismic subsidence, we propose that earthquakes responsible for long-term uplift of this region took place prior to the 9th century. This research also demonstrates the value of preserved intertidal sediments as paleoseismological archives where net tectonic displacement is neutral.

Simultaneous estimation of earthquake source parameters and ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

moderate-size aftershocks (Mw 2.1–5.1) of the Mw 7.7 2001 Bhuj earthquake. The horizontal- ... claimed a death toll of 20,000 people. This earth- .... quake occurred west of Kachchh, with an epicenter at 24. ◦. N, 68 ..... for dominance of body waves for R ≤ 100 km ...... Bhuj earthquake sequence; J. Asian Earth Sci. 40.

Analysis of the earthquake data and estimation of source parameters in the Kyungsang basin

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seo, Jeong-Moon; Lee, Jun-Hee [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea)

2000-04-01

The purpose of the present study is to determine the response spectrum for the Korean Peninsula and estimate the seismic source parameters and analyze and simulate the ground motion adequately from the seismic characteristics of Korean Peninsula and compare this with the real data. The estimated seismic source parameters such as apparent seismic stress drop is somewhat unstable because the data are insufficient. When the instrumental earthquake data were continuously accumulated in the future, the modification of these parameters may be developed. Although equations presented in this report are derived from the limited data, they can be utilized both in seismology and earthquake engineering. Finally, predictive equations may be given in terms of magnitude and hypocentral distances using these parameters. The estimation of the predictive equation constructed from the simulation is the object of further study. 34 refs., 27 figs., 10 tabs. (Author)

25 April 2015 Gorkha Earthquake in Nepal Himalaya (Part 2)

Science.gov (United States)

Rao, N. Purnachandra; Burgmann, Roland; Mugnier, Jean-Louis; Gahalaut, Vineet; Pandey, Anand

2017-06-01

The response from the geosciences community working on Himalaya in general, and the 2015 Nepal earthquakes in specific, was overwhelming, and after a rigorous review process, thirteen papers were selected and published in Part-1. We are still left with a few good papers which are being brought out as Part-2 of the special issue. In the opening article Jean-Louis Mugnier and colleagues attempt to provide a structural geological perspective of the 25 April 2015 Gorkha earthquake and highlight the role of segmentation in generating the Himalayan mega-thrusts. They could infer segmentation by stable barriers in the HT that define barrier-type earthquake families. In yet another interesting piece of work, Pandey and colleagues map the crustal structure across the earthquake volume using Receiver function approach and infer a 5-km thick low velocity layer that connects to the MHT ramp. They are also able to correlate the rupture termination with the highest point of coseismic uplift. The last paper by Shen et al. highlights the usefulness of INSAR technique in mapping the coseismic slip distribution applied to the 25 April 2015 Gorkha earthquake. They infer low stress drop and corner frequency which coupled with hybrid modeling explain the low level of slip heterogeneity and frequency of ground motion. We compliment the journal of Asian Earth Sciences for bringing out the two volumes and do hope that these efforts have made a distinct impact on furthering our understanding of seismogenesis in Himalaya using the very latest data sets.

A global probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from earthquake sources

Science.gov (United States)

Davies, Gareth; Griffin, Jonathan; Lovholt, Finn; Glimsdal, Sylfest; Harbitz, Carl; Thio, Hong Kie; Lorito, Stefano; Basili, Roberto; Selva, Jacopo; Geist, Eric L.; Baptista, Maria Ana

2017-01-01

Large tsunamis occur infrequently but have the capacity to cause enormous numbers of casualties, damage to the built environment and critical infrastructure, and economic losses. A sound understanding of tsunami hazard is required to underpin management of these risks, and while tsunami hazard assessments are typically conducted at regional or local scales, globally consistent assessments are required to support international disaster risk reduction efforts, and can serve as a reference for local and regional studies. This study presents a global-scale probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), extending previous global-scale assessments based largely on scenario analysis. Only earthquake sources are considered, as they represent about 80% of the recorded damaging tsunami events. Globally extensive estimates of tsunami run-up height are derived at various exceedance rates, and the associated uncertainties are quantified. Epistemic uncertainties in the exceedance rates of large earthquakes often lead to large uncertainties in tsunami run-up. Deviations between modelled tsunami run-up and event observations are quantified, and found to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Accounting for these deviations in PTHA is important, as it leads to a pronounced increase in predicted tsunami run-up for a given exceedance rate.

Historic Eastern Canadian earthquakes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asmis, G.J.K.; Atchinson, R.J.

1981-01-01

Nuclear power plants licensed in Canada have been designed to resist earthquakes: not all plants, however, have been explicitly designed to the same level of earthquake induced forces. Understanding the nature of strong ground motion near the source of the earthquake is still very tentative. This paper reviews historical and scientific accounts of the three strongest earthquakes - St. Lawrence (1925), Temiskaming (1935), Cornwall (1944) - that have occurred in Canada in 'modern' times, field studies of near-field strong ground motion records and their resultant damage or non-damage to industrial facilities, and numerical modelling of earthquake sources and resultant wave propagation to produce accelerograms consistent with the above historical record and field studies. It is concluded that for future construction of NPP's near-field strong motion must be explicitly considered in design

Long-term perspectives on giant earthquakes and tsunamis at subduction zones

Science.gov (United States)

Satake, K.; Atwater, B.F.; ,

2007-01-01

Histories of earthquakes and tsunamis, inferred from geological evidence, aid in anticipating future catastrophes. This natural warning system now influences building codes and tsunami planning in the United States, Canada, and Japan, particularly where geology demonstrates the past occurrence of earthquakes and tsunamis larger than those known from written and instrumental records. Under favorable circumstances, paleoseismology can thus provide long-term advisories of unusually large tsunamis. The extraordinary Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 resulted from a fault rupture more than 1000 km in length that included and dwarfed fault patches that had broken historically during lesser shocks. Such variation in rupture mode, known from written history at a few subduction zones, is also characteristic of earthquake histories inferred from geology on the Pacific Rim. Copyright ?? 2007 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

Alaska earthquake source for the SAFRR tsunami scenario: Chapter B in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Kirby, Stephen; Scholl, David; von Huene, Roland E.; Wells, Ray

2013-01-01

Tsunami modeling has shown that tsunami sources located along the Alaska Peninsula segment of the Aleutian-Alaska subduction zone have the greatest impacts on southern California shorelines by raising the highest tsunami waves for a given source seismic moment. The most probable sector for a Mw ~ 9 source within this subduction segment is between Kodiak Island and the Shumagin Islands in what we call the Semidi subduction sector; these bounds represent the southwestern limit of the 1964 Mw 9.2 Alaska earthquake rupture and the northeastern edge of the Shumagin sector that recent Global Positioning System (GPS) observations indicate is currently creeping. Geological and geophysical features in the Semidi sector that are thought to be relevant to the potential for large magnitude, long-rupture-runout interplate thrust earthquakes are remarkably similar to those in northeastern Japan, where the destructive Mw 9.1 tsunamigenic earthquake of 11 March 2011 occurred. In this report we propose and justify the selection of a tsunami source seaward of the Alaska Peninsula for use in the Tsunami Scenario that is part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) Project. This tsunami source should have the potential to raise damaging tsunami waves on the California coast, especially at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Accordingly, we have summarized and abstracted slip distribution from the source literature on the 2011 event, the best characterized for any subduction earthquake, and applied this synoptic slip distribution to the similar megathrust geometry of the Semidi sector. The resulting slip model has an average slip of 18.6 m and a moment magnitude of Mw = 9.1. The 2011 Tohoku earthquake was not anticipated, despite Japan having the best seismic and geodetic networks in the world and the best historical record in the world over the past 1,500 years. What was lacking was adequate paleogeologic data on prehistoric earthquakes

A reconnaissance assessment of probabilistic earthquake accelerations at the Nevada Test Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perkins, D.M.; Thenhaus, P.C.; Hanson, S.L.; Algermissen, S.T.

1986-01-01

We have made two interim assessments of the probabilistic ground-motion hazard for the potential nuclear-waste disposal facility at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). The first assessment used historical seismicity and generalized source zones and source faults in the immediate vicinity of the facility. This model produced relatively high probabilistic ground motions, comparable to the higher of two earlier estimates, which was obtained by averaging seismicity in a 400-km-radius circle around the site. The high ground-motion values appear to be caused in part by nuclear-explosion aftershocks remaining in the catalog even after the explosions themselves have been removed. The second assessment used particularized source zones and source faults in a region substantially larger than NTS to provide a broad context of probabilistic ground motion estimates at other locations of the study region. Source faults are mapped or inferred faults having lengths of 5 km or more. Source zones are defined by boundaries separating fault groups on the basis of direction and density. For this assessment, earthquake recurrence has been estimated primarily from historic seismicity prior to nuclear testing. Long-term recurrence for large-magnitude events is constrained by geological estimates of recurrence in a regime in which the large-magnitude earthquakes would occur with predominately normal mechanisms. 4 refs., 10 figs

Toward real-time regional earthquake simulation of Taiwan earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, S.; Liu, Q.; Tromp, J.; Komatitsch, D.; Liang, W.; Huang, B.

2013-12-01

We developed a Real-time Online earthquake Simulation system (ROS) to simulate regional earthquakes in Taiwan. The ROS uses a centroid moment tensor solution of seismic events from a Real-time Moment Tensor monitoring system (RMT), which provides all the point source parameters including the event origin time, hypocentral location, moment magnitude and focal mechanism within 2 minutes after the occurrence of an earthquake. Then, all of the source parameters are automatically forwarded to the ROS to perform an earthquake simulation, which is based on a spectral-element method (SEM). We have improved SEM mesh quality by introducing a thin high-resolution mesh layer near the surface to accommodate steep and rapidly varying topography. The mesh for the shallow sedimentary basin is adjusted to reflect its complex geometry and sharp lateral velocity contrasts. The grid resolution at the surface is about 545 m, which is sufficient to resolve topography and tomography data for simulations accurate up to 1.0 Hz. The ROS is also an infrastructural service, making online earthquake simulation feasible. Users can conduct their own earthquake simulation by providing a set of source parameters through the ROS webpage. For visualization, a ShakeMovie and ShakeMap are produced during the simulation. The time needed for one event is roughly 3 minutes for a 70 sec ground motion simulation. The ROS is operated online at the Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica (http://ros.earth.sinica.edu.tw/). Our long-term goal for the ROS system is to contribute to public earth science outreach and to realize seismic ground motion prediction in real-time.

Empirical Scaling Relations of Source Parameters For The Earthquake Swarm 2000 At Novy Kostel (vogtland/nw-bohemia)

Science.gov (United States)

Heuer, B.; Plenefisch, T.; Seidl, D.; Klinge, K.

Investigations on the interdependence of different source parameters are an impor- tant task to get more insight into the mechanics and dynamics of earthquake rup- ture, to model source processes and to make predictions for ground motion at the surface. The interdependencies, providing so-called scaling relations, have often been investigated for large earthquakes. However, they are not commonly determined for micro-earthquakes and swarm-earthquakes, especially for those of the Vogtland/NW- Bohemia region. For the most recent swarm in the Vogtland/NW-Bohemia, which took place between August and December 2000 near Novy Kostel (Czech Republic), we systematically determine the most important source parameters such as energy E0, seismic moment M0, local magnitude ML, fault length L, corner frequency fc and rise time r and build their interdependencies. The swarm of 2000 is well suited for such investigations since it covers a large magnitude interval (1.5 ML 3.7) and there are also observations in the near-field at several stations. In the present paper we mostly concentrate on two near-field stations with hypocentral distances between 11 and 13 km, namely WERN (Wernitzgrün) and SBG (Schönberg). Our data processing includes restitution to true ground displacement and rotation into the ray-based prin- cipal co-ordinate system, which we determine by the covariance matrix of the P- and S-displacement, respectively. Data preparation, determination of the distinct source parameters as well as statistical interpretation of the results will be exemplary pre- sented. The results will be discussed with respect to temporal variations in the swarm activity (the swarm consists of eight distinct sub-episodes) and already existing focal mechanisms.

Relationship of the 2004 Mid-Niigata prefecture earthquake with geological structure. Evaluation of earthquake source fault in active folding zone

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aoyagi, Yasuhira; Abe, Shintaro

2007-01-01

We compile the important points to evaluate earthquake source fault in active folding zone through a temporary aftershock observation of the 2004 Mid-Niigata Prefecture earthquake. The aftershock distribution shows spindle shape whose middle part is wide and both ends are narrow in NNE-SSW trending. The range of seismic activity corresponds well to the distribution of fold axes in this area, whose middle part is anticlinorium (some anticlines) and both ends are single anticline. In the middle part, the west dipping aftershock plane including the mainshock (M6.8) is located under the Higashiyama anticline. Another west dipping aftershock plane including the largest aftershock (M6.5) is located under the Tamugiyama and Komatsugura anticlines, and the east margin of the aftershock distribution corresponds well with Suwa-toge flexure. Therefore the present fold structure should have been formed by an accumulation of the same faults movement. In other words, it is important to refer the fold axes distribution pattern, especially with flexure, for the evaluation of earthquake source fault. In addition, we performed FEM analyses to investigate the relation of fold structure to the thickness of the sedimentary layer and the dip angle of the fault. Reverse fault movement forms asymmetric fold above the fault, which steeper slope is formed just above the upper end of the fault. As the sedimentary layer became thicker, anticline axis moved to hanging wall side in the fold structure. As the dip angle became smaller, the wavelength of the fold became longer and the fold structure grew highly asymmetric. Thus the shape of the fold structure is useful as an index to estimate the blind thrust below it. (author)

Preliminary analysis of strong-motion recordings from the 28 September 2004 Parkfield, California earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Shakal, A.; Graizer, V.; Huang, M.; Borcherdt, R.; Haddadi, H.; Lin, K.-W.; Stephens, C.; Roffers, P.

2005-01-01

The Parkfield 2004 earthquake yielded the most extensive set of strong-motion data in the near-source region of a magnitude 6 earthquake yet obtained. The recordings of acceleration and volumetric strain provide an unprecedented document of the near-source seismic radiation for a moderate earthquake. The spatial density of the measurements alon g the fault zone and in the linear arrays perpendicular to the fault is expected to provide an exceptional opportunity to develop improved models of the rupture process. The closely spaced measurements should help infer the temporal and spatial distribution of the rupture process at much higher resolution than previously possible. Preliminary analyses of the peak a cceleration data presented herein shows that the motions vary significantly along the rupture zone, from 0.13 g to more than 2.5 g, with a map of the values showing that the larger values are concentrated in three areas. Particle motions at the near-fault stations are consistent with bilateral rupture. Fault-normal pulses similar to those observed in recent strike-slip earthquakes are apparent at several of the stations. The attenuation of peak ground acceleration with distance is more rapid than that indicated by some standard relationships but adequately fits others. Evidence for directivity in the peak acceleration data is not strong. Several stations very near, or over, the rupturing fault recorded relatively low accelerations. These recordings may provide a quantitative basis to understand observations of low near-fault shaking damage that has been reported in other large strike-slip earthquak.

Reassessment of source parameters for three major earthquakes in the East African rift system from historical seismograms and bulletins

OpenAIRE

Ayele, A.; Kulhánek, O.

2000-01-01

Source parameters for three majo earthquakes in the East African rift are re-computed from historical seismograms and bulletins. The main shock and the largest foreshock of the August 25, 1906 earthquake sequence in the main Ethiopian rift are re-located on the eastern shoulder of the rift segment.The magnitude of the main shock is estimated to be 6.5 (Mw) from spectral analysis. The December 13, 1910 earthquake in the Rukwa rift (Western Tanzania) indicated a significant strike-slip componen...

Inferred rheological structure and mantle conditions from postseismic deformation following the 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Dickinson-Lovell, Haylee; Huang, Mong-Han; Freed, Andrew M.; Fielding, Eric; Bürgmann, Roland; Andronicos, Christopher

2018-06-01

The 2010 Mw7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake provides a unique target of postseismic study as deformation extends across several distinct geological provinces, including the cold Mesozoic arc crust of the Peninsular Ranges and newly formed, hot, extending lithosphere within the Salton Trough. We use five years of global positioning system measurements to invert for afterslip and constrain a 3-D finite-element model that simulates viscoelastic relaxation. We find that afterslip cannot readily explain far-field displacements (more than 50 km from the epicentre). These displacements are best explained by viscoelastic relaxation of a horizontally and vertically heterogeneous lower crust and upper mantle. Lower viscosities beneath the Salton Trough compared to the Peninsular Ranges and other surrounding regions are consistent with inferred differences in the respective geotherms. Our inferred viscosity structure suggests that the depth of the Lithosphere/Asthenosphere Boundary (LAB) is ˜65 km below the Peninsular Ranges and ˜32 km beneath the Salton Trough. These depths are shallower than the corresponding seismic LAB. This suggests that the onset of partial melting in peridotite may control the depth to the base of the mechanical lithosphere. In contrast, the seismic LAB may correspond to an increase in the partial melt percentage associated with the change from a conductive to an adiabatic geotherm.

Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER): A System for Rapidly Determining the Impact of Earthquakes Worldwide

Science.gov (United States)

Earle, Paul S.; Wald, David J.; Jaiswal, Kishor S.; Allen, Trevor I.; Hearne, Michael G.; Marano, Kristin D.; Hotovec, Alicia J.; Fee, Jeremy

2009-01-01

Within minutes of a significant earthquake anywhere on the globe, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system assesses its potential societal impact. PAGER automatically estimates the number of people exposed to severe ground shaking and the shaking intensity at affected cities. Accompanying maps of the epicentral region show the population distribution and estimated ground-shaking intensity. A regionally specific comment describes the inferred vulnerability of the regional building inventory and, when available, lists recent nearby earthquakes and their effects. PAGER's results are posted on the USGS Earthquake Program Web site (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/), consolidated in a concise one-page report, and sent in near real-time to emergency responders, government agencies, and the media. Both rapid and accurate results are obtained through manual and automatic updates of PAGER's content in the hours following significant earthquakes. These updates incorporate the most recent estimates of earthquake location, magnitude, faulting geometry, and first-hand accounts of shaking. PAGER relies on a rich set of earthquake analysis and assessment tools operated by the USGS and contributing Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) regional networks. A focused research effort is underway to extend PAGER's near real-time capabilities beyond population exposure to quantitative estimates of fatalities, injuries, and displaced population.

Dynamic Source Inversion of a M6.5 Intraslab Earthquake in Mexico: Application of a New Parallel Genetic Algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Díaz-Mojica, J. J.; Cruz-Atienza, V. M.; Madariaga, R.; Singh, S. K.; Iglesias, A.

2013-05-01

We introduce a novel approach for imaging the earthquakes dynamics from ground motion records based on a parallel genetic algorithm (GA). The method follows the elliptical dynamic-rupture-patch approach introduced by Di Carli et al. (2010) and has been carefully verified through different numerical tests (Díaz-Mojica et al., 2012). Apart from the five model parameters defining the patch geometry, our dynamic source description has four more parameters: the stress drop inside the nucleation and the elliptical patches; and two friction parameters, the slip weakening distance and the change of the friction coefficient. These parameters are constant within the rupture surface. The forward dynamic source problem, involved in the GA inverse method, uses a highly accurate computational solver for the problem, namely the staggered-grid split-node. The synthetic inversion presented here shows that the source model parameterization is suitable for the GA, and that short-scale source dynamic features are well resolved in spite of low-pass filtering of the data for periods comparable to the source duration. Since there is always uncertainty in the propagation medium as well as in the source location and the focal mechanisms, we have introduced a statistical approach to generate a set of solution models so that the envelope of the corresponding synthetic waveforms explains as much as possible the observed data. We applied the method to the 2012 Mw6.5 intraslab Zumpango, Mexico earthquake and determined several fundamental source parameters that are in accordance with different and completely independent estimates for Mexican and worldwide earthquakes. Our weighted-average final model satisfactorily explains eastward rupture directivity observed in the recorded data. Some parameters found for the Zumpango earthquake are: Δτ = 30.2+/-6.2 MPa, Er = 0.68+/-0.36x10^15 J, G = 1.74+/-0.44x10^15 J, η = 0.27+/-0.11, Vr/Vs = 0.52+/-0.09 and Mw = 6.64+/-0.07; for the stress drop

A probabilistic approach for the estimation of earthquake source parameters from spectral inversion

Science.gov (United States)

Supino, M.; Festa, G.; Zollo, A.

2017-12-01

The amplitude spectrum of a seismic signal related to an earthquake source carries information about the size of the rupture, moment, stress and energy release. Furthermore, it can be used to characterize the Green's function of the medium crossed by the seismic waves. We describe the earthquake amplitude spectrum assuming a generalized Brune's (1970) source model, and direct P- and S-waves propagating in a layered velocity model, characterized by a frequency-independent Q attenuation factor. The observed displacement spectrum depends indeed on three source parameters, the seismic moment (through the low-frequency spectral level), the corner frequency (that is a proxy of the fault length) and the high-frequency decay parameter. These parameters are strongly correlated each other and with the quality factor Q; a rigorous estimation of the associated uncertainties and parameter resolution is thus needed to obtain reliable estimations.In this work, the uncertainties are characterized adopting a probabilistic approach for the parameter estimation. Assuming an L2-norm based misfit function, we perform a global exploration of the parameter space to find the absolute minimum of the cost function and then we explore the cost-function associated joint a-posteriori probability density function around such a minimum, to extract the correlation matrix of the parameters. The global exploration relies on building a Markov chain in the parameter space and on combining a deterministic minimization with a random exploration of the space (basin-hopping technique). The joint pdf is built from the misfit function using the maximum likelihood principle and assuming a Gaussian-like distribution of the parameters. It is then computed on a grid centered at the global minimum of the cost-function. The numerical integration of the pdf finally provides mean, variance and correlation matrix associated with the set of best-fit parameters describing the model. Synthetic tests are performed to

Toward real-time regional earthquake simulation II: Real-time Online earthquake Simulation (ROS) of Taiwan earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Shiann-Jong; Liu, Qinya; Tromp, Jeroen; Komatitsch, Dimitri; Liang, Wen-Tzong; Huang, Bor-Shouh

2014-06-01

We developed a Real-time Online earthquake Simulation system (ROS) to simulate regional earthquakes in Taiwan. The ROS uses a centroid moment tensor solution of seismic events from a Real-time Moment Tensor monitoring system (RMT), which provides all the point source parameters including the event origin time, hypocentral location, moment magnitude and focal mechanism within 2 min after the occurrence of an earthquake. Then, all of the source parameters are automatically forwarded to the ROS to perform an earthquake simulation, which is based on a spectral-element method (SEM). A new island-wide, high resolution SEM mesh model is developed for the whole Taiwan in this study. We have improved SEM mesh quality by introducing a thin high-resolution mesh layer near the surface to accommodate steep and rapidly varying topography. The mesh for the shallow sedimentary basin is adjusted to reflect its complex geometry and sharp lateral velocity contrasts. The grid resolution at the surface is about 545 m, which is sufficient to resolve topography and tomography data for simulations accurate up to 1.0 Hz. The ROS is also an infrastructural service, making online earthquake simulation feasible. Users can conduct their own earthquake simulation by providing a set of source parameters through the ROS webpage. For visualization, a ShakeMovie and ShakeMap are produced during the simulation. The time needed for one event is roughly 3 min for a 70 s ground motion simulation. The ROS is operated online at the Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica (http://ros.earth.sinica.edu.tw/). Our long-term goal for the ROS system is to contribute to public earth science outreach and to realize seismic ground motion prediction in real-time.

Global Compilation of InSAR Earthquake Source Models: Comparisons with Seismic Catalogues and the Effects of 3D Earth Structure

Science.gov (United States)

Weston, J. M.; Ferreira, A. M.; Funning, G. J.

2010-12-01

While past progress in seismology led to extensive earthquake catalogues such as the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalogue, recent advances in space geodesy have enabled earthquake parameter estimations from the measurement of the deformation of the Earth’s surface, notably using InSAR data. Many earthquakes have now been studied using InSAR, but a full assessment of the quality and of the additional value of these source parameters compared to traditional seismological techniques is still lacking. In this study we present results of systematic comparisons between earthquake CMT parameters determined using InSAR and seismic data, on a global scale. We compiled a large database of source parameters obtained using InSAR data from the literature and estimated the corresponding CMT parameters into a ICMT compilation. We here present results from the analysis of 58 earthquakes that occurred between 1992-2007 from about 80 published InSAR studies. Multiple studies of the same earthquake are included in the archive, as they are valuable to assess uncertainties. Where faults are segmented, with changes in width along-strike, a weighted average based on the seismic moment in each fault has been used to determine overall earthquake parameters. For variable slip models, we have calculated source parameters taking the spatial distribution of slip into account. The parameters in our ICMT compilation are compared with those taken from the Global CMT (GCMT), ISC, EHB and NEIC catalogues. We find that earthquake fault strike, dip and rake values in the GCMT and ICMT archives are generally compatible with each other. Likewise, the differences in seismic moment in these two archives are relatively small. However, the locations of the centroid epicentres show substantial discrepancies, which are larger when comparing with GCMT locations (10-30km differences) than for EHB, ISC and NEIC locations (5-15km differences). Since InSAR data have a high spatial resolution, and thus

Earthquake Swarm Along the San Andreas Fault near Palmdale, Southern California, 1976 to 1977.

Science.gov (United States)

McNally, K C; Kanamori, H; Pechmann, J C; Fuis, G

1978-09-01

Between November 1976 and November 1977 a swarm of small earthquakes (local magnitude foreshock sequences, such as tight clustering of hypocenters and time-dependent rotations of stress axes inferred from focal mechanisms. However, because of our present lack of understanding of the processes that precede earthquake faulting, the implications of the swarm for future large earthquakes on the San Andreas fault are unknown.

Geomorphic legacy of medieval Himalayan earthquakes in the Pokhara Valley

Science.gov (United States)

Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Bernhardt, Anne; Stolle, Amelie; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R.; Andermann, Christoff; Tofelde, Stefanie; Merchel, Silke; Rugel, Georg; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

2016-04-01

The Himalayas and their foreland belong to the world's most earthquake-prone regions. With millions of people at risk from severe ground shaking and associated damages, reliable data on the spatial and temporal occurrence of past major earthquakes is urgently needed to inform seismic risk analysis. Beyond the instrumental record such information has been largely based on historical accounts and trench studies. Written records provide evidence for damages and fatalities, yet are difficult to interpret when derived from the far-field. Trench studies, in turn, offer information on rupture histories, lengths and displacements along faults but involve high chronological uncertainties and fail to record earthquakes that do not rupture the surface. Thus, additional and independent information is required for developing reliable earthquake histories. Here, we present exceptionally well-dated evidence of catastrophic valley infill in the Pokhara Valley, Nepal. Bayesian calibration of radiocarbon dates from peat beds, plant macrofossils, and humic silts in fine-grained tributary sediments yields a robust age distribution that matches the timing of nearby M>8 earthquakes in ~1100, 1255, and 1344 AD. The upstream dip of tributary valley fills and X-ray fluorescence spectrometry of their provenance rule out local sediment sources. Instead, geomorphic and sedimentary evidence is consistent with catastrophic fluvial aggradation and debris flows that had plugged several tributaries with tens of meters of calcareous sediment from the Annapurna Massif >60 km away. The landscape-changing consequences of past large Himalayan earthquakes have so far been elusive. Catastrophic aggradation in the wake of two historically documented medieval earthquakes and one inferred from trench studies underscores that Himalayan valley fills should be considered as potential archives of past earthquakes. Such valley fills are pervasive in the Lesser Himalaya though high erosion rates reduce

Fundamental questions of earthquake statistics, source behavior, and the estimation of earthquake probabilities from possible foreshocks

Science.gov (United States)

Michael, Andrew J.

2012-01-01

Estimates of the probability that an ML 4.8 earthquake, which occurred near the southern end of the San Andreas fault on 24 March 2009, would be followed by an M 7 mainshock over the following three days vary from 0.0009 using a Gutenberg–Richter model of aftershock statistics (Reasenberg and Jones, 1989) to 0.04 using a statistical model of foreshock behavior and long‐term estimates of large earthquake probabilities, including characteristic earthquakes (Agnew and Jones, 1991). I demonstrate that the disparity between the existing approaches depends on whether or not they conform to Gutenberg–Richter behavior. While Gutenberg–Richter behavior is well established over large regions, it could be violated on individual faults if they have characteristic earthquakes or over small areas if the spatial distribution of large‐event nucleations is disproportional to the rate of smaller events. I develop a new form of the aftershock model that includes characteristic behavior and combines the features of both models. This new model and the older foreshock model yield the same results when given the same inputs, but the new model has the advantage of producing probabilities for events of all magnitudes, rather than just for events larger than the initial one. Compared with the aftershock model, the new model has the advantage of taking into account long‐term earthquake probability models. Using consistent parameters, the probability of an M 7 mainshock on the southernmost San Andreas fault is 0.0001 for three days from long‐term models and the clustering probabilities following the ML 4.8 event are 0.00035 for a Gutenberg–Richter distribution and 0.013 for a characteristic‐earthquake magnitude–frequency distribution. Our decisions about the existence of characteristic earthquakes and how large earthquakes nucleate have a first‐order effect on the probabilities obtained from short‐term clustering models for these large events.

Source Mechanism of May 30, 2015 Bonin Islands, Japan Deep Earthquake (Mw7.8) Estimated by Broadband Waveform Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Tsuboi, S.; Nakamura, T.; Miyoshi, T.

2015-12-01

May 30, 2015 Bonin Islands, Japan earthquake (Mw 7.8, depth 679.9km GCMT) was one of the deepest earthquakes ever recorded. We apply the waveform inversion technique (Kikuchi & Kanamori, 1991) to obtain slip distribution in the source fault of this earthquake in the same manner as our previous work (Nakamura et al., 2010). We use 60 broadband seismograms of IRIS GSN seismic stations with epicentral distance between 30 and 90 degrees. The broadband original data are integrated into ground displacement and band-pass filtered in the frequency band 0.002-1 Hz. We use the velocity structure model IASP91 to calculate the wavefield near source and stations. We assume that the fault is squared with the length 50 km. We obtain source rupture model for both nodal planes with high dip angle (74 degree) and low dip angle (26 degree) and compare the synthetic seismograms with the observations to determine which source rupture model would explain the observations better. We calculate broadband synthetic seismograms with these source propagation models using the spectral-element method (Komatitsch & Tromp, 2001). We use new Earth Simulator system in JAMSTEC to compute synthetic seismograms using the spectral-element method. The simulations are performed on 7,776 processors, which require 1,944 nodes of the Earth Simulator. On this number of nodes, a simulation of 50 minutes of wave propagation accurate at periods of 3.8 seconds and longer requires about 5 hours of CPU time. Comparisons of the synthetic waveforms with the observation at teleseismic stations show that the arrival time of pP wave calculated for depth 679km matches well with the observation, which demonstrates that the earthquake really happened below the 660 km discontinuity. In our present forward simulations, the source rupture model with the low-angle fault dipping is likely to better explain the observations.

Rupture, waves and earthquakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Uenishi, Koji

2017-01-01

Normally, an earthquake is considered as a phenomenon of wave energy radiation by rupture (fracture) of solid Earth. However, the physics of dynamic process around seismic sources, which may play a crucial role in the occurrence of earthquakes and generation of strong waves, has not been fully understood yet. Instead, much of former investigation in seismology evaluated earthquake characteristics in terms of kinematics that does not directly treat such dynamic aspects and usually excludes the influence of high-frequency wave components over 1 Hz. There are countless valuable research outcomes obtained through this kinematics-based approach, but "extraordinary" phenomena that are difficult to be explained by this conventional description have been found, for instance, on the occasion of the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu, Japan, earthquake, and more detailed study on rupture and wave dynamics, namely, possible mechanical characteristics of (1) rupture development around seismic sources, (2) earthquake-induced structural failures and (3) wave interaction that connects rupture (1) and failures (2), would be indispensable.

On the point-source approximation of earthquake dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrea Bizzarri

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The focus on the present study is on the point-source approximation of a seismic source. First, we compare the synthetic motions on the free surface resulting from different analytical evolutions of the seismic source (the Gabor signal (G, the Bouchon ramp (B, the Cotton and Campillo ramp (CC, the Yoffe function (Y and the Liu and Archuleta function (LA. Our numerical experiments indicate that the CC and the Y functions produce synthetics with larger oscillations and correspondingly they have a higher frequency content. Moreover, the CC and the Y functions tend to produce higher peaks in the ground velocity (roughly of a factor of two. We have also found that the falloff at high frequencies is quite different: it roughly follows ω−2 in the case of G and LA functions, it decays more faster than ω−2 for the B function, while it is slow than ω−1 for both the CC and the Y solutions. Then we perform a comparison of seismic waves resulting from 3-D extended ruptures (both supershear and subshear obeying to different governing laws against those from a single point-source having the same features. It is shown that the point-source models tend to overestimate the ground motions and that they completely miss the Mach fronts emerging from the supershear transition process. When we compare the extended fault solutions against a multiple point-sources model the agreement becomes more significant, although relevant discrepancies still persist. Our results confirm that, and more importantly quantify how, the point-source approximation is unable to adequately describe the radiation emitted during a real world earthquake, even in the most idealized case of planar fault with homogeneous properties and embedded in a homogeneous, perfectly elastic medium.

A Catalogue of Source Parameters of Moderate and Strong Earthquakes for Turkey and its Surrounding Area (1938-2015)

Science.gov (United States)

Kalafat, D.; Toksoz, M. N.

2015-12-01

Turkey and Surrounding area, especially North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ), Western Turkey, cost of the Aegean Sea and Mediterranean Sea regions are seismically very active and undergoing rapid deformation. Earthquakes with M >6.0 do occur every couple of years regularly in this region, Moderate-magnitude seismicity (4.04.0 which were calculated of the fault-source parameters for Turkey and its surrounding area between 1938-2015. The fault source parameters of total over the 1200 earthquakes were calculated. The fault-source parameters of about 56.0 % of the all events were calculated with this study and 44.0 % of the rest were obtained from the other sources. The parameters of the old and incomplete events also were calculated in order to prepare the homogeneous and extended fault- source parameters set in the study. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This study was supported by the Department of Science Fellowship and Grant programs of TUBITAK (The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey).

Seismic Hazard characterization study using an earthquake source with Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) method in the Northern of Sumatra

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yahya, A.; Palupi, M. I. R.; Suharsono

2016-01-01

Sumatra region is one of the earthquake-prone areas in Indonesia because it is lie on an active tectonic zone. In 2004 there is earthquake with a moment magnitude of 9.2 located on the coast with the distance 160 km in the west of Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam and triggering a tsunami. These events take a lot of casualties and material losses, especially in the Province of Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam and North Sumatra. To minimize the impact of the earthquake disaster, a fundamental assessment of the earthquake hazard in the region is needed. Stages of research include the study of literature, collection and processing of seismic data, seismic source characterization and analysis of earthquake hazard by probabilistic methods (PSHA) used earthquake catalog from 1907 through 2014. The earthquake hazard represented by the value of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and Spectral Acceleration (SA) in the period of 0.2 and 1 second on bedrock that is presented in the form of a map with a return period of 2475 years and the earthquake hazard curves for the city of Medan and Banda Aceh. (paper)

Using neutral network to infer the hydrodynamic yield of aspherical sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moran, B.; Glenn, L.A.

1993-07-01

We distinguish two kinds of difficulties with yield determination from aspherical sources. The first kind, the spoofing difficulty, occurs when a fraction of the energy of the explosion is channeled in such a way that it is not detected by the CORRTEX cable. In this case, neither neural networks nor any expert system can be expected to accurately estimate the yield without detailed information about device emplacement within the canister. Numerical simulations however, can provide an upper bound on the undetected fraction of the explosive energy. In the second instance, the interpretation difficulty, the data appear abnormal when analyzed using similar-explosion-scaling and the assumption of a spherical front. The inferred yield varies with time and the confidence in the yield estimate decreases. It is this kind of problem we address in this paper and for which neural networks can make a contribution. We used a back propagation neural network to infer the hydrodynamic yield of simulated aspherical sources. We trained the network using a subset of simulations from 3 different aspherical sources, with 3 different yields, and 3 satellite offset separations. The trained network was able to predict the yield within 15% in all cases and to identify the correct type of aspherical source in most cases. The predictive capability of the network increased with a larger training set. The neural network approach can easily incorporate information from new calculations or experiments and is therefore flexible and easy to maintain. We describe the potential capabilities and limitations in using such networks for yield estimations

Using neural networks to infer the hydrodynamic yield of aspherical sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moran, B.; Glenn, L.

1993-01-01

We distinguish two kinds of difficulties with yield determination from aspherical sources. The first kind, the spoofing difficulty, occurs when a fraction of the energy of the explosion is channeled in such a way that it is not detected by the CORRTEX cable. In this case, neither neural networks nor any expert system can be expected to accurately estimate the yield without detailed information about device emplacement within the canister. Numerical simulations however, can provide an upper bound on the undetected fraction of the explosive energy. In the second instance, the interpretation difficulty, the data appear abnormal when analyzed using similar-explosion-scaling and the assumption of a spherical front. The inferred yield varies with time and the confidence in the yield estimate decreases. It is this kind of problem we address in this paper and for which neural networks can make a contribution. We used a back propagation neural network to infer the hydrodynamic yield of simulated aspherical sources. We trained the network using a subset of simulations from 3 different aspherical sources, with 3 different yield, and 3 satellite offset separations. The trained network was able to predict the yield within 15% in all cases and to identify the correct type of aspherical source in most cases. The predictive capability of the network increased with a larger training set. The neural network approach can easily incorporate information from new calculations or experiments and is therefore flexible and easy to maintain. We describe the potential capabilities and limitations in using such networks for yield estimations

Nonlinear acoustic/seismic waves in earthquake processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, Paul A.

2012-01-01

Nonlinear dynamics induced by seismic sources and seismic waves are common in Earth. Observations range from seismic strong ground motion (the most damaging aspect of earthquakes), intense near-source effects, and distant nonlinear effects from the source that have important consequences. The distant effects include dynamic earthquake triggering—one of the most fascinating topics in seismology today—which may be elastically nonlinearly driven. Dynamic earthquake triggering is the phenomenon whereby seismic waves generated from one earthquake trigger slip events on a nearby or distant fault. Dynamic triggering may take place at distances thousands of kilometers from the triggering earthquake, and includes triggering of the entire spectrum of slip behaviors currently identified. These include triggered earthquakes and triggered slow, silent-slip during which little seismic energy is radiated. It appears that the elasticity of the fault gouge—the granular material located between the fault blocks—is key to the triggering phenomenon.

Source model and Coulomb stress change of 2017 Mw 6.5 Philippine (Ormoc) Earthquake revealed by SAR interferometry

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, M. C.; Hu, J. C.; Yang, Y. H.; Hashimoto, M.; Aurelio, M.; Su, Z.; Escudero, J. A.

2017-12-01

Multi-sight and high spatial resolution interferometric SAR data enhances our ability for mapping detailed coseismic deformation to estimate fault rupture model and to infer the Coulomb stress change associated with a big earthquake. Here, we use multi-sight coseismic interferograms acquired by ALOS-2 and Sentinel-1A satellites to estimate the fault geometry and slip distribution on the fault plane of the 2017 Mw 6.5 Ormoc Earthquake in Leyte island of Philippine. The best fitting model predicts that the coseismic rupture occurs along a fault plane with strike of 325.8º and dip of 78.5ºE. This model infers that the rupture of 2017 Ormoc earthquake is dominated by left-lateral slip with minor dip-slip motion, consistent with the left-lateral strike-slip Philippine fault system. The fault tip has propagated to the ground surface, and the predicted coseismic slip on the surface is about 1 m located at 6.5 km Northeast of Kananga city. Significant slip is concentrated on the fault patches at depth of 0-8 km and an along-strike distance of 20 km with varying slip magnitude from 0.3 m to 2.3 m along the southwest segment of this seismogenic fault. Two minor coseismic fault patches are predicted underneath of the Tononan geothermal field and the creeping segment of the northwest portion of this seismogenic fault. This implies that the high geothermal gradient underneath of the Tongonan geothermal filed could prevent heated rock mass from the coseismic failure. The seismic moment release of our preferred fault model is 7.78×1018 Nm, equivalent to Mw 6.6 event. The Coulomb failure stress (CFS) calculated by the preferred fault model predicts significant positive CFS change on the northwest segment of the Philippine fault in Leyte Island which has coseismic slip deficit and is absent from aftershocks. Consequently, this segment should be considered to have increasing of risk for future seismic hazard.

A study of Guptkashi, Uttarakhand earthquake of 6 February 2017 ( M w 5.3) in the Himalayan arc and implications for ground motion estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Srinagesh, Davuluri; Singh, Shri Krishna; Suresh, Gaddale; Srinivas, Dakuri; Pérez-Campos, Xyoli; Suresh, Gudapati

2018-05-01

The 2017 Guptkashi earthquake occurred in a segment of the Himalayan arc with high potential for a strong earthquake in the near future. In this context, a careful analysis of the earthquake is important as it may shed light on source and ground motion characteristics during future earthquakes. Using the earthquake recording on a single broadband strong-motion seismograph installed at the epicenter, we estimate the earthquake's location (30.546° N, 79.063° E), depth ( H = 19 km), the seismic moment ( M 0 = 1.12×1017 Nm, M w 5.3), the focal mechanism ( φ = 280°, δ = 14°, λ = 84°), the source radius ( a = 1.3 km), and the static stress drop (Δ σ s 22 MPa). The event occurred just above the Main Himalayan Thrust. S-wave spectra of the earthquake at hard sites in the arc are well approximated (assuming ω -2 source model) by attenuation parameters Q( f) = 500 f 0.9, κ = 0.04 s, and f max = infinite, and a stress drop of Δ σ = 70 MPa. Observed and computed peak ground motions, using stochastic method along with parameters inferred from spectral analysis, agree well with each other. These attenuation parameters are also reasonable for the observed spectra and/or peak ground motion parameters in the arc at distances ≤ 200 km during five other earthquakes in the region (4.6 ≤ M w ≤ 6.9). The estimated stress drop of the six events ranges from 20 to 120 MPa. Our analysis suggests that attenuation parameters given above may be used for ground motion estimation at hard sites in the Himalayan arc via the stochastic method.

Earthquake statistics inferred from plastic events in soft-glassy materials

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Benzi, Roberto; Toschi, Federico; Trampert, Jeannot

2016-01-01

We propose a new approach for generating synthetic earthquake catalogues based on the physics of soft glasses. The continuum approach produces yield-stress materials based on Lattice-Boltzmann simulations. We show that, if the material is stimulated below yield stress, plastic events occur, which

Source characteristics of the Fairview, OK, earthquake sequence and its relationship to industrial activities

Science.gov (United States)

Yeck, W. L.; Weingarten, M.; Benz, H.; McNamara, D. E.; Herrmann, R. B.; Rubinstein, J. L.; Earle, P. S.; Bergman, E.

2016-12-01

We characterize the spatio-temporal patterns of seismicity surrounding the February 13, 2016, Mw 5.1 Fairview, Oklahoma earthquake. This earthquake sequence accounts for the largest moment release in the central and eastern US since the November 06, 2011 Mw 5.6 Prague, OK earthquake sequence. To improve the location accuracy of the sequence and measure near-source ground motions, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) deployed eight seismometers and accelerometers in the epicentral region. With the added depth control from these stations, we show that earthquakes primarily occur in the Precambrian basement, at depths of 6-10 km below sea level. The Mw 5.1 mainshock, the largest event in the cluster, locates near the base of the seismicity. Relocated aftershocks delineate a partially unmapped, 14-km-long fault segment that strikes approximately N40°E, partially bridging the gap between previously mapped basement faults to the southwest and northeast. Gas production and hydraulic fracking data from the region show no evidence that either of these activities correlates spatio-temporally with the Fairview sequence. Instead, we suggest that a series of high-rate, Arbuckle injection wells (> 300,000 bbls/month) 8-25 km northeast of this sequence pressurized the reservoir in the far field. Regional injection into the Arbuckle formation increased 7-fold in the 24 months before the initiation of the sequence with some wells operating at rates greater than 1 million barrels per month. Seismicity in the proximity of the high-rate wells is diffuse whilst the energetic Fairview sequence occurs more than 15 km from this region. Our observations point to the critical role pre-existing geologic structures play in the occurrence of large induced earthquakes. This study demonstrates the need for a better understanding of the role of far-field pressurization. High-quality data sets such as this facilitate the USGS mission to improve earthquake hazard identification, especially

A program PULSYN01 for wide-band simulation of source radiation from a finite earthquake source/fault

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gusev, A.A.

2001-12-01

The purpose of the program PULSYN01 is to apply a realistic wideband source-side input for calculation of earthquake ground motion. The source is represented as a grid of point subsources, and their seismic moment rate time functions are generated considering each of them as realizations (sample functions) of a non-stationary random process. The model is intended for use at receiver-to fault distances from far field to as small as 10-20% of the fault width. Combined with an adequate Green's function synthesizer, PULSUNT01 can be used for assessment of possible ground motion and seismic hazard in many ways, including scenario event simulation, parametric studies, and eventually stochastic hazard calculations

Bayesian inference and interpretation of centroid moment tensors of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence, Kyushu, Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Hallo, Miroslav; Asano, Kimiyuki; Gallovič, František

2017-09-01

On April 16, 2016, Kumamoto prefecture in Kyushu region, Japan, was devastated by a shallow M JMA7.3 earthquake. The series of foreshocks started by M JMA6.5 foreshock 28 h before the mainshock. They have originated in Hinagu fault zone intersecting the mainshock Futagawa fault zone; hence, the tectonic background for this earthquake sequence is rather complex. Here we infer centroid moment tensors (CMTs) for 11 events with M JMA between 4.8 and 6.5, using strong motion records of the K-NET, KiK-net and F-net networks. We use upgraded Bayesian full-waveform inversion code ISOLA-ObsPy, which takes into account uncertainty of the velocity model. Such an approach allows us to reliably assess uncertainty of the CMT parameters including the centroid position. The solutions show significant systematic spatial and temporal variations throughout the sequence. Foreshocks are right-lateral steeply dipping strike-slip events connected to the NE-SW shear zone. Those located close to the intersection of the Hinagu and Futagawa fault zones are dipping slightly to ESE, while those in the southern area are dipping to WNW. Contrarily, aftershocks are mostly normal dip-slip events, being related to the N-S extensional tectonic regime. Most of the deviatoric moment tensors contain only minor CLVD component, which can be attributed to the velocity model uncertainty. Nevertheless, two of the CMTs involve a significant CLVD component, which may reflect complex rupture process. Decomposition of those moment tensors into two pure shear moment tensors suggests combined right-lateral strike-slip and normal dip-slip mechanisms, consistent with the tectonic settings of the intersection of the Hinagu and Futagawa fault zones.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

Geological evidence of recurrent great Kanto earthquakes at the Miura Peninsula, Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Shimazaki, K.; Kim, H. Y.; Chiba, T.; Satake, K.

2011-12-01

The Tokyo metropolitan area's well-documented earthquake history is dominated by the 1703 and 1923 great Kanto earthquakes produced by slip on the boundary between the subducting Philippine Sea plate and the overlying plate. Both earthquakes caused ˜1.5 m of uplift at the Miura Peninsula directly above the inferred fault rupture, and both were followed by tsunamis with heights of ˜5 m. We examined cores ˜2 m long from 8 tidal flat sites at the head of a small bay on the peninsula. The cores penetrated two to four layers of shelly gravel, as much as 0.5 m thick, with abundant shell fragments and mud clasts. The presence of gravel indicates strong tractive currents. Muddy bay deposits that bound the gravel layers show vertical changes in grain size and diatom assemblages consistent with abrupt shoaling at the times of the currents. The changes may further suggest gradual deepening of the bay during the intervals between the strong currents. We infer, based on 137Cs, 14C, and 210Pb dating, that the top two shelly gravel layers represent tsunamis associated with the 1703 and 1923 great Kanto earthquakes, and that the third layer was deposited by a tsunami during an earlier earthquake. The age range of this layer, AD 1060-1400, includes the time of an earthquake that occurred in 1293 according to a historical document. If so, the recurrence interval before the 1703 earthquake was almost twice as long as the interval between the 1703 and 1923 earthquakes.

Source modeling of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Nepal (Gorkha) earthquake sequence: Implications for geodynamics and earthquake hazards

Science.gov (United States)

McNamara, D. E.; Yeck, W. L.; Barnhart, W. D.; Schulte-Pelkum, V.; Bergman, E.; Adhikari, L. B.; Dixit, A.; Hough, S. E.; Benz, H. M.; Earle, P. S.

2017-09-01

The Gorkha earthquake on April 25th, 2015 was a long anticipated, low-angle thrust-faulting event on the shallow décollement between the India and Eurasia plates. We present a detailed multiple-event hypocenter relocation analysis of the Mw 7.8 Gorkha Nepal earthquake sequence, constrained by local seismic stations, and a geodetic rupture model based on InSAR and GPS data. We integrate these observations to place the Gorkha earthquake sequence into a seismotectonic context and evaluate potential earthquake hazard. Major results from this study include (1) a comprehensive catalog of calibrated hypocenters for the Gorkha earthquake sequence; (2) the Gorkha earthquake ruptured a 150 × 60 km patch of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), the décollement defining the plate boundary at depth, over an area surrounding but predominantly north of the capital city of Kathmandu (3) the distribution of aftershock seismicity surrounds the mainshock maximum slip patch; (4) aftershocks occur at or below the mainshock rupture plane with depths generally increasing to the north beneath the higher Himalaya, possibly outlining a 10-15 km thick subduction channel between the overriding Eurasian and subducting Indian plates; (5) the largest Mw 7.3 aftershock and the highest concentration of aftershocks occurred to the southeast the mainshock rupture, on a segment of the MHT décollement that was positively stressed towards failure; (6) the near surface portion of the MHT south of Kathmandu shows no aftershocks or slip during the mainshock. Results from this study characterize the details of the Gorkha earthquake sequence and provide constraints on where earthquake hazard remains high, and thus where future, damaging earthquakes may occur in this densely populated region. Up-dip segments of the MHT should be considered to be high hazard for future damaging earthquakes.

Source and path characteristics of earthquakes occurring off the Kii peninsula

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shiba, Yoshiaki; Sato, Hiroaki

2007-01-01

The characteristics of strong ground motions during the 2004 off the Kii peninsula earthquake sequence are examined based on the records observed on the rock outcrops. These events, including the foreshock of M JMA 7.1, the main shock of M JMA 7.4, and the largest aftershock of M JMA 6.5, are all the intra-plate earthquakes occurring in the outer rise region of the Philippine Sea plate close to the Nankai-Trough. Very large long-period ground motions are observed in sedimentary basins far from source area during the foreshock and the main shock, however, the excitation of short-period motions agrees well with the empirical relations assuming the inter-plate or inland events, rather than the intra-plate ones. Furthermore the spectral inversion analysis exhibits the Q s values beneath the Kii peninsula region are higher than average ones estimated at other areas in Japan, due to relatively long propagating path through the high-Q oceanic plate. The local site effects derived from the spectral inversion analysis correspond to the residual spectra in the rock-outcrop site, and also to the one-dimensional amplification function based on the PS logging data in the KiK-net site with S-wave velocity at basement higher than 2.2 km/s. Finally we verified that the amplitude levels of acceleration source spectra in the shorter periods of the Kii-peninsula events distribute near the empirical relationships to the seismic moments. (author)

Development of uniform hazard response spectra for rock sites considering line and point sources of earthquakes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghosh, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.

2001-12-01

Traditionally, the seismic design basis ground motion has been specified by normalised response spectral shapes and peak ground acceleration (PGA). The mean recurrence interval (MRI) used to computed for PGA only. It is shown that the MRI associated with such response spectra are not the same at all frequencies. The present work develops uniform hazard response spectra i.e. spectra having the same MRI at all frequencies for line and point sources of earthquakes by using a large number of strong motion accelerograms recorded on rock sites. Sensitivity of the number of the results to the changes in various parameters has also been presented. This work is an extension of an earlier work for aerial sources of earthquakes. These results will help to determine the seismic hazard at a given site and the associated uncertainities. (author)

Inferring fault rheology from low-frequency earthquakes on the San Andreas

Science.gov (United States)

Beeler, Nicholas M.; Thomas, Amanda; Bürgmann, Roland; Shelly, David R.

2013-01-01

Families of recurring low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) within nonvolcanic tremor (NVT) on the San Andreas fault in central California show strong sensitivity to shear stress induced by the daily tidal cycle. LFEs occur at all levels of the tidal shear stress and are in phase with the very small, ~400 Pa, stress amplitude. To quantitatively explain the correlation, we use a model from the existing literature that assumes the LFE sources are small, persistent regions that repeatedly fail during shear of a much larger scale, otherwise aseismically creeping fault zone. The LFE source patches see tectonic loading, creep of the surrounding fault which may be modulated by the tidal stress, and direct tidal loading. If the patches are small relative to the surrounding creeping fault then the stressing is dominated by fault creep, and if patch failure occurs at a threshold stress, then the resulting seismicity rate is proportional to the fault creep rate or fault zone strain rate. Using the seismicity rate as a proxy for strain rate and the tidal shear stress, we fit the data with possible fault rheologies that produce creep in laboratory experiments at temperatures of 400 to 600°C appropriate for the LFE source depth. The rheological properties of rock-forming minerals for dislocation creep and dislocation glide are not consistent with the observed fault creep because strong correlation between small stress perturbations and strain rate requires perturbation on the order of the ambient stress. The observed tidal modulation restricts ambient stress to be at most a few kilopascal, much lower than rock strength. A purely rate dependent friction is consistent with the observations only if the product of the friction rate dependence and effective normal stress is ~ 0.5 kPa. Extrapolating the friction rate strengthening dependence of phyllosilicates (talc) to depth would require the effective normal stress to be ~50 kPa, implying pore pressure is lithostatic. If the LFE

Source of the Vrancea, Romania intermediate-depth earthquakes: variability test of the source time function using a small-aperture array

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Popescu, E.; Radulian, M.; Popa, M.; Placinta, A.O.; Cioflan, C. O.; Grecu, B.

2005-01-01

The main purpose of the present work is to investigate the possibility to detect and calibrate the source parameters of the Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes using a small-aperture array, Bucovina Seismic Array (BURAR). BURAR array was installed in 1999 in joint cooperation between Romania and USA. The array is situated in the northern part of Romania, in Eastern Carpathians, at about 250 km distance from the Vrancea epicentral area. The array consists of 10 stations (nine short period and one broad band instruments installed in boreholes). For our study we selected 30 earthquakes (3.8 iU MD iU 6.0) occurred between 2002 and 2004, including two recent Vrancea events, which are the best ever recorded earthquakes on the Romanian territory: September 27, 2004 (45.70 angle N, 26.45 angle E, h = 166 km, M w = 4.7) and October 27, 2004 (45.84 angle N, 26.63 angle E, h = 105 km, M w 6.0). Empirical Green function deconvolution and spectral ratio methods are applied for pairs of collocated events with similar focal mechanism. Stability tests are performed for the retrieved source time function using the array elements. Empirical scaling and calibration relationships are also determined. Possible variation with depth along the subducting slab, in agreement with assumed differences in the seismic and tectonic regime between the upper (h = 60 -110 km) and lower (h = 110 - 180 km) lithospheric seismic active segments, and variation in the attenuation of the seismic waves propagating toward BURAR site, are also investigated. (authors)

Finite-Source Inversion for the 2004 Parkfield Earthquake using 3D Velocity Model Green's Functions

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, A.; Dreger, D.; Larsen, S.

2008-12-01

We determine finite fault models of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake using 3D Green's functions. Because of the dense station coverage and detailed 3D velocity structure model in this region, this earthquake provides an excellent opportunity to examine how the 3D velocity structure affects the finite fault inverse solutions. Various studies (e.g. Michaels and Eberhart-Phillips, 1991; Thurber et al., 2006) indicate that there is a pronounced velocity contrast across the San Andreas Fault along the Parkfield segment. Also the fault zone at Parkfield is wide as evidenced by mapped surface faults and where surface slip and creep occurred in the 1966 and the 2004 Parkfield earthquakes. For high resolution images of the rupture process"Ait is necessary to include the accurate 3D velocity structure for the finite source inversion. Liu and Aurchuleta (2004) performed finite fault inversions using both 1D and 3D Green's functions for 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake using the same source paramerization and data but different Green's functions and found that the models were quite different. This indicates that the choice of the velocity model significantly affects the waveform modeling at near-fault stations. In this study, we used the P-wave velocity model developed by Thurber et al (2006) to construct the 3D Green's functions. P-wave speeds are converted to S-wave speeds and density using by the empirical relationships of Brocher (2005). Using a finite difference method, E3D (Larsen and Schultz, 1995), we computed the 3D Green's functions numerically by inserting body forces at each station. Using reciprocity, these Green's functions are recombined to represent the ground motion at each station due to the slip on the fault plane. First we modeled the waveforms of small earthquakes to validate the 3D velocity model and the reciprocity of the Green"fs function. In the numerical tests we found that the 3D velocity model predicted the individual phases well at frequencies lower than 0

An empirical assessment of near-source strong ground motion for a 6.6 mb (7.5 MS) earthquake in the Eastern United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campbell, Kenneth W.

1984-06-01

To help assess the impact of the current U.S. Geological Survey position on the seismic safety of nuclear power plants in the Eastern United States (EUS), several techniques for estimating near-source strong ground motion for a Charleston size earthquake were evaluated. The techniques for estimating the near-source strong ground motion for a 6.6 m b (7.5 M S ) in the Eastern United States which were assessed are methods based on site specific analyses, semi-theoretical scaling techniques, and intensity-based estimates. The first involves the statistical analysis of ground motion records from earthquakes and recording stations having the same general characteristics (earthquakes with magnitudes of 7.5 M S or larger, epicentral distances of 25 km or less, and sites of either soil or rock). Some recommendations for source and characterization scaling of the bias resulting primarily from an inadequate sample of near-source recordings from earthquakes of large magnitude are discussed. The second technique evaluated requires that semi-theoretical estimates of peak ground motion parameters for a 6.6 m b (7.5 M S ) earthquake be obtained from scaling relations. Each relation uses a theoretical expression between peak acceleration magnitude and distance together with available strong motion data (majority coming from California) to develop a scaling relation appropriate for the Eastern United States. None of the existing ground motion models for the EUS include the potential effects of source or site characteristics. Adjustments to account for fault mechanisms, site topography, site geology, and the size and embedment of buildings are discussed. The final approach used relations between strong ground motion parameters and Modified Mercalli Intensity in conjunction with two methods to estimate peak parameters for a 6.6 m s (7.5 M S ) earthquake. As with other techniques, adjustment of peak acceleration estimates are discussed. Each method differently approaches the problem

Time-lapse imaging of fault properties at seismogenic depth using repeating earthquakes, active sources and seismic ambient noise

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Xin

2009-12-01

The time-varying stress field of fault systems at seismogenic depths plays the mort important role in controlling the sequencing and nucleation of seismic events. Using seismic observations from repeating earthquakes, controlled active sources and seismic ambient noise, five studies at four different fault systems across North America, Central Japan, North and mid-West China are presented to describe our efforts to measure such time dependent structural properties. Repeating and similar earthquakes are hunted and analyzed to study the post-seismic fault relaxation at the aftershock zone of the 1984 M 6.8 western Nagano and the 1976 M 7.8 Tangshan earthquakes. The lack of observed repeating earthquakes at western Nagano is attributed to the absence of a well developed weak fault zone, suggesting that the fault damage zone has been almost completely healed. In contrast, the high percentage of similar and repeating events found at Tangshan suggest the existence of mature fault zones characterized by stable creep under steady tectonic loading. At the Parkfield region of the San Andreas Fault, repeating earthquake clusters and chemical explosions are used to construct a scatterer migration image based on the observation of systematic temporal variations in the seismic waveforms across the occurrence time of the 2004 M 6 Parkfield earthquake. Coseismic fluid charge or discharge in fractures caused by the Parkfield earthquake is used to explain the observed seismic scattering properties change at depth. In the same region, a controlled source cross-well experiment conducted at SAFOD pilot and main holes documents two large excursions in the travel time required for a shear wave to travel through the rock along a fixed pathway shortly before two rupture events, suggesting that they may be related to pre-rupture stress induced changes in crack properties. At central China, a tomographic inversion based on the theory of seismic ambient noise and coda wave interferometry

The source parameters of 2013 Mw6.6 Lushan earthquake constrained with the restored local clipped seismic waveforms

Science.gov (United States)

Hao, J.; Zhang, J. H.; Yao, Z. X.

2017-12-01

We developed a method to restore the clipped seismic waveforms near epicenter using projection onto convex sets method (Zhang et al, 2016). This method was applied to rescue the local clipped waveforms of 2013 Mw 6.6 Lushan earthquake. We restored 88 out of 93 clipped waveforms of 38 broadband seismic stations of China Earthquake Networks (CEN). The epicenter distance of the nearest station to the epicenter that we can faithfully restore is only about 32 km. In order to investigate if the source parameters of earthquake could be determined exactly with the restored data, restored waveforms are utilized to get the mechanism of Lushan earthquake. We apply the generalized reflection-transmission coefficient matrix method to calculate the synthetic seismic records and simulated annealing method in inversion (Yao and Harkrider, 1983; Hao et al., 2012). We select 5 stations of CEN with the epicenter distance about 200km whose records aren't clipped and three-component velocity records are used. The result shows the strike, dip and rake angles of Lushan earthquake are 200o, 51o and 87o respectively, hereinafter "standard result". Then the clipped and restored seismic waveforms are applied respectively. The strike, dip and rake angles of clipped seismic waveforms are 184o, 53o and 72o respectively. The largest misfit of angle is 16o. In contrast, the strike, dip and rake angles of restored seismic waveforms are 198o, 51o and 87o respectively. It is very close to the "standard result". We also study the rupture history of Lushan earthquake constrained with the restored local broadband and teleseismic waves based on finite fault method (Hao et al., 2013). The result consists with that constrained with the strong motion and teleseismic waves (Hao et al., 2013), especially the location of the patch with larger slip. In real-time seismology, determining the source parameters as soon as possible is important. This method will help us to determine the mechanism of earthquake

Sensitivity of tsunami wave profiles and inundation simulations to earthquake slip and fault geometry for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

KAUST Repository

Goda, Katsuichiro; Mai, Paul Martin; Yasuda, Tomohiro; Mori, Nobuhito

2014-01-01

In this study, we develop stochastic random-field slip models for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and conduct a rigorous sensitivity analysis of tsunami hazards with respect to the uncertainty of earthquake slip and fault geometry. Synthetic earthquake slip distributions generated from the modified Mai-Beroza method captured key features of inversion-based source representations of the mega-thrust event, which were calibrated against rich geophysical observations of this event. Using original and synthesised earthquake source models (varied for strike, dip, and slip distributions), tsunami simulations were carried out and the resulting variability in tsunami hazard estimates was investigated. The results highlight significant sensitivity of the tsunami wave profiles and inundation heights to the coastal location and the slip characteristics, and indicate that earthquake slip characteristics are a major source of uncertainty in predicting tsunami risks due to future mega-thrust events.

Sensitivity of tsunami wave profiles and inundation simulations to earthquake slip and fault geometry for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

KAUST Repository

Goda, Katsuichiro

2014-09-01

In this study, we develop stochastic random-field slip models for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and conduct a rigorous sensitivity analysis of tsunami hazards with respect to the uncertainty of earthquake slip and fault geometry. Synthetic earthquake slip distributions generated from the modified Mai-Beroza method captured key features of inversion-based source representations of the mega-thrust event, which were calibrated against rich geophysical observations of this event. Using original and synthesised earthquake source models (varied for strike, dip, and slip distributions), tsunami simulations were carried out and the resulting variability in tsunami hazard estimates was investigated. The results highlight significant sensitivity of the tsunami wave profiles and inundation heights to the coastal location and the slip characteristics, and indicate that earthquake slip characteristics are a major source of uncertainty in predicting tsunami risks due to future mega-thrust events.

Romanian crustal earthquake sequences: evidence for space and time clustering in correlation with seismic source properties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Popescu, E.; Popa, M.; Radulian, M.

2002-01-01

The study of seismic sequences is important from both scientific point of view, and its socio-economical impact on human society. In this paper we analyze the crustal earthquake sequences in correlation with the seismogenic zones delimited on the Romanian territory using geological and tectonic information available. We consider on one hand the sequences typical for the Carpathians foreland region (Ramnicu Sarat, Vrancioaia and Sinaia seismic zones), which are associated with the Vrancea subduction process and, on the other hand the sequences typical for the contact between the Pannonian Basin and Carpathians orogen (Banat seismic zone). To analyze the seismicity and source properties, we applied the fractal statistics and relative methods such as spectral ratio and deconvolution with the empirical Green's functions. On the basis of the retrieved source parameters for small and moderate size events the scaling relations for the characteristic properties of the seismic source are estimated. The scaling and earthquake clustering properties are correlated with the geological and rheological properties of the studied seismic areas. (authors)

Bayesian hierarchical model for variations in earthquake peak ground acceleration within small-aperture arrays

KAUST Repository

Rahpeyma, Sahar

2018-04-17

Knowledge of the characteristics of earthquake ground motion is fundamental for earthquake hazard assessments. Over small distances, relative to the source–site distance, where uniform site conditions are expected, the ground motion variability is also expected to be insignificant. However, despite being located on what has been characterized as a uniform lava‐rock site condition, considerable peak ground acceleration (PGA) variations were observed on stations of a small‐aperture array (covering approximately 1 km2) of accelerographs in Southwest Iceland during the Ölfus earthquake of magnitude 6.3 on May 29, 2008 and its sequence of aftershocks. We propose a novel Bayesian hierarchical model for the PGA variations accounting separately for earthquake event effects, station effects, and event‐station effects. An efficient posterior inference scheme based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations is proposed for the new model. The variance of the station effect is certainly different from zero according to the posterior density, indicating that individual station effects are different from one another. The Bayesian hierarchical model thus captures the observed PGA variations and quantifies to what extent the source and recording sites contribute to the overall variation in ground motions over relatively small distances on the lava‐rock site condition.

Bayesian hierarchical model for variations in earthquake peak ground acceleration within small-aperture arrays

KAUST Repository

Rahpeyma, Sahar; Halldorsson, Benedikt; Hrafnkelsson, Birgir; Jonsson, Sigurjon

2018-01-01

Knowledge of the characteristics of earthquake ground motion is fundamental for earthquake hazard assessments. Over small distances, relative to the source–site distance, where uniform site conditions are expected, the ground motion variability is also expected to be insignificant. However, despite being located on what has been characterized as a uniform lava‐rock site condition, considerable peak ground acceleration (PGA) variations were observed on stations of a small‐aperture array (covering approximately 1 km2) of accelerographs in Southwest Iceland during the Ölfus earthquake of magnitude 6.3 on May 29, 2008 and its sequence of aftershocks. We propose a novel Bayesian hierarchical model for the PGA variations accounting separately for earthquake event effects, station effects, and event‐station effects. An efficient posterior inference scheme based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations is proposed for the new model. The variance of the station effect is certainly different from zero according to the posterior density, indicating that individual station effects are different from one another. The Bayesian hierarchical model thus captures the observed PGA variations and quantifies to what extent the source and recording sites contribute to the overall variation in ground motions over relatively small distances on the lava‐rock site condition.

Pseudo-dynamic source modelling with 1-point and 2-point statistics of earthquake source parameters

KAUST Repository

Song, S. G.

2013-12-24

Ground motion prediction is an essential element in seismic hazard and risk analysis. Empirical ground motion prediction approaches have been widely used in the community, but efficient simulation-based ground motion prediction methods are needed to complement empirical approaches, especially in the regions with limited data constraints. Recently, dynamic rupture modelling has been successfully adopted in physics-based source and ground motion modelling, but it is still computationally demanding and many input parameters are not well constrained by observational data. Pseudo-dynamic source modelling keeps the form of kinematic modelling with its computational efficiency, but also tries to emulate the physics of source process. In this paper, we develop a statistical framework that governs the finite-fault rupture process with 1-point and 2-point statistics of source parameters in order to quantify the variability of finite source models for future scenario events. We test this method by extracting 1-point and 2-point statistics from dynamically derived source models and simulating a number of rupture scenarios, given target 1-point and 2-point statistics. We propose a new rupture model generator for stochastic source modelling with the covariance matrix constructed from target 2-point statistics, that is, auto- and cross-correlations. Our sensitivity analysis of near-source ground motions to 1-point and 2-point statistics of source parameters provides insights into relations between statistical rupture properties and ground motions. We observe that larger standard deviation and stronger correlation produce stronger peak ground motions in general. The proposed new source modelling approach will contribute to understanding the effect of earthquake source on near-source ground motion characteristics in a more quantitative and systematic way.

SCARDEC: a new technique for the rapid determination of seismic moment magnitude, focal mechanism and source time functions for large earthquakes using body-wave deconvolution

Science.gov (United States)

Vallée, M.; Charléty, J.; Ferreira, A. M. G.; Delouis, B.; Vergoz, J.

2011-01-01

Accurate and fast magnitude determination for large, shallow earthquakes is of key importance for post-seismic response and tsumami alert purposes. When no local real-time data are available, which is today the case for most subduction earthquakes, the first information comes from teleseismic body waves. Standard body-wave methods give accurate magnitudes for earthquakes up to Mw= 7-7.5. For larger earthquakes, the analysis is more complex, because of the non-validity of the point-source approximation and of the interaction between direct and surface-reflected phases. The latter effect acts as a strong high-pass filter, which complicates the magnitude determination. We here propose an automated deconvolutive approach, which does not impose any simplifying assumptions about the rupture process, thus being well adapted to large earthquakes. We first determine the source duration based on the length of the high frequency (1-3 Hz) signal content. The deconvolution of synthetic double-couple point source signals—depending on the four earthquake parameters strike, dip, rake and depth—from the windowed real data body-wave signals (including P, PcP, PP, SH and ScS waves) gives the apparent source time function (STF). We search the optimal combination of these four parameters that respects the physical features of any STF: causality, positivity and stability of the seismic moment at all stations. Once this combination is retrieved, the integration of the STFs gives directly the moment magnitude. We apply this new approach, referred as the SCARDEC method, to most of the major subduction earthquakes in the period 1990-2010. Magnitude differences between the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) and the SCARDEC method may reach 0.2, but values are found consistent if we take into account that the Global CMT solutions for large, shallow earthquakes suffer from a known trade-off between dip and seismic moment. We show by modelling long-period surface waves of these events that

Method to Determine Appropriate Source Models of Large Earthquakes Including Tsunami Earthquakes for Tsunami Early Warning in Central America

Science.gov (United States)

Tanioka, Yuichiro; Miranda, Greyving Jose Arguello; Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Fujii, Yushiro

2017-08-01

Large earthquakes, such as the Mw 7.7 1992 Nicaragua earthquake, have occurred off the Pacific coasts of El Salvador and Nicaragua in Central America and have generated distractive tsunamis along these coasts. It is necessary to determine appropriate fault models before large tsunamis hit the coast. In this study, first, fault parameters were estimated from the W-phase inversion, and then an appropriate fault model was determined from the fault parameters and scaling relationships with a depth dependent rigidity. The method was tested for four large earthquakes, the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2001 El Salvador earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2004 El Astillero earthquake (Mw7.0), and the 2012 El Salvador-Nicaragua earthquake (Mw7.3), which occurred off El Salvador and Nicaragua in Central America. The tsunami numerical simulations were carried out from the determined fault models. We found that the observed tsunami heights, run-up heights, and inundation areas were reasonably well explained by the computed ones. Therefore, our method for tsunami early warning purpose should work to estimate a fault model which reproduces tsunami heights near the coast of El Salvador and Nicaragua due to large earthquakes in the subduction zone.

Joint inversion of GNSS and teleseismic data for the rupture process of the 2017 M w6.5 Jiuzhaigou, China, earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Qi; Tan, Kai; Wang, Dong Zhen; Zhao, Bin; Zhang, Rui; Li, Yu; Qi, Yu Jie

2018-05-01

The spatio-temporal slip distribution of the earthquake that occurred on 8 August 2017 in Jiuzhaigou, China, was estimated from the teleseismic body wave and near-field Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data (coseismic displacements and high-rate GPS data) based on a finite fault model. Compared with the inversion results from the teleseismic body waves, the near-field GNSS data can better restrain the rupture area, the maximum slip, the source time function, and the surface rupture. The results show that the maximum slip of the earthquake approaches 1.4 m, the scalar seismic moment is 8.0 × 1018 N·m ( M w ≈ 6.5), and the centroid depth is 15 km. The slip is mainly driven by the left-lateral strike-slip and it is initially inferred that the seismogenic fault occurs in the south branch of the Tazang fault or an undetectable fault, a NW-trending left-lateral strike-slip fault, and belongs to one of the tail structures at the easternmost end of the eastern Kunlun fault zone. The earthquake rupture is mainly concentrated at depths of 5-15 km, which results in the complete rupture of the seismic gap left by the previous four earthquakes with magnitudes > 6.0 in 1973 and 1976. Therefore, the possibility of a strong aftershock on the Huya fault is low. The source duration is 30 s and there are two major ruptures. The main rupture occurs in the first 10 s, 4 s after the earthquake; the second rupture peak arrives in 17 s. In addition, the Coulomb stress study shows that the epicenter of the earthquake is located in the area where the static Coulomb stress change increased because of the 12 May 2017 M w7.9 Wenchuan, China, earthquake. Therefore, the Wenchuan earthquake promoted the occurrence of the 8 August 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquake.

Constraining the source location of the 30 May 2015 (Mw 7.9) Bonin deep-focus earthquake using seismogram envelopes of high-frequency P waveforms: Occurrence of deep-focus earthquake at the bottom of a subducting slab

Science.gov (United States)

Takemura, Shunsuke; Maeda, Takuto; Furumura, Takashi; Obara, Kazushige

2016-05-01

In this study, the source location of the 30 May 2015 (Mw 7.9) deep-focus Bonin earthquake was constrained using P wave seismograms recorded across Japan. We focus on propagation characteristics of high-frequency P wave. Deep-focus intraslab earthquakes typically show spindle-shaped seismogram envelopes with peak delays of several seconds and subsequent long-duration coda waves; however, both the main shock and aftershock of the 2015 Bonin event exhibited pulse-like P wave propagations with high apparent velocities (~12.2 km/s). Such P wave propagation features were reproduced by finite-difference method simulations of seismic wave propagation in the case of slab-bottom source. The pulse-like P wave seismogram envelopes observed from the 2015 Bonin earthquake show that its source was located at the bottom of the Pacific slab at a depth of ~680 km, rather than within its middle or upper regions.

Source rupture process of the 2016 Kaikoura, New Zealand earthquake estimated from the kinematic waveform inversion of strong-motion data

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Ao; Wang, Mingfeng; Yu, Xiangwei; Zhang, Wenbo

2018-03-01

On 2016 November 13, an Mw 7.8 earthquake occurred in the northeast of the South Island of New Zealand near Kaikoura. The earthquake caused severe damages and great impacts on local nature and society. Referring to the tectonic environment and defined active faults, the field investigation and geodetic evidence reveal that at least 12 fault sections ruptured in the earthquake, and the focal mechanism is one of the most complicated in historical earthquakes. On account of the complexity of the source rupture, we propose a multisegment fault model based on the distribution of surface ruptures and active tectonics. We derive the source rupture process of the earthquake using the kinematic waveform inversion method with the multisegment fault model from strong-motion data of 21 stations (0.05-0.35 Hz). The inversion result suggests the rupture initiates in the epicentral area near the Humps fault, and then propagates northeastward along several faults, until the offshore Needles fault. The Mw 7.8 event is a mixture of right-lateral strike and reverse slip, and the maximum slip is approximately 19 m. The synthetic waveforms reproduce the characteristics of the observed ones well. In addition, we synthesize the coseismic offsets distribution of the ruptured region from the slips of upper subfaults in the fault model, which is roughly consistent with the surface breaks observed in the field survey.

The 2008 Wells, Nevada earthquake sequence: Source constraints using calibrated multiple event relocation and InSAR

Science.gov (United States)

Nealy, Jennifer; Benz, Harley M.; Hayes, Gavin; Berman, Eric; Barnhart, William

2017-01-01

The 2008 Wells, NV earthquake represents the largest domestic event in the conterminous U.S. outside of California since the October 1983 Borah Peak earthquake in southern Idaho. We present an improved catalog, magnitude complete to 1.6, of the foreshock-aftershock sequence, supplementing the current U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Preliminary Determination of Epicenters (PDE) catalog with 1,928 well-located events. In order to create this catalog, both subspace and kurtosis detectors are used to obtain an initial set of earthquakes and associated locations. The latter are then calibrated through the implementation of the hypocentroidal decomposition method and relocated using the BayesLoc relocation technique. We additionally perform a finite fault slip analysis of the mainshock using InSAR observations. By combining the relocated sequence with the finite fault analysis, we show that the aftershocks occur primarily updip and along the southwestern edge of the zone of maximum slip. The aftershock locations illuminate areas of post-mainshock strain increase; aftershock depths, ranging from 5 to 16 km, are consistent with InSAR imaging, which shows that the Wells earthquake was a buried source with no observable near-surface offset.

Added-value joint source modelling of seismic and geodetic data

Science.gov (United States)

Sudhaus, Henriette; Heimann, Sebastian; Walter, Thomas R.; Krueger, Frank

2013-04-01

In tectonically active regions earthquake source studies strongly support the analysis of the current faulting processes as they reveal the location and geometry of active faults, the average slip released or more. For source modelling of shallow, moderate to large earthquakes often a combination of geodetic (GPS, InSAR) and seismic data is used. A truly joint use of these data, however, usually takes place only on a higher modelling level, where some of the first-order characteristics (time, centroid location, fault orientation, moment) have been fixed already. These required basis model parameters have to be given, assumed or inferred in a previous, separate and highly non-linear modelling step using one of the these data sets alone. We present a new earthquake rupture model implementation that realizes a fully combined data integration of surface displacement measurements and seismic data in a non-linear optimization of simple but extended planar ruptures. The model implementation allows for fast forward calculations of full seismograms and surface deformation and therefore enables us to use Monte Carlo global search algorithms. Furthermore, we benefit from the complementary character of seismic and geodetic data, e. g. the high definition of the source location from geodetic data and the sensitivity of the resolution of the seismic data on moment releases at larger depth. These increased constraints from the combined dataset make optimizations efficient, even for larger model parameter spaces and with a very limited amount of a priori assumption on the source. A vital part of our approach is rigorous data weighting based on the empirically estimated data errors. We construct full data error variance-covariance matrices for geodetic data to account for correlated data noise and also weight the seismic data based on their signal-to-noise ratio. The estimation of the data errors and the fast forward modelling opens the door for Bayesian inferences of the source

The Northern Rupture of the 1762 Arakan Meghathrust Earthquake and other Potential Earthquake Sources in Bangladesh.

Science.gov (United States)

Akhter, S. H.; Seeber, L.; Steckler, M. S.

2015-12-01

Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries in the world. It occupies a major part of the Bengal Basin, which contains the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta (GBD), the largest and one of the most active of world deltas, and is located along the Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt. As such it is vulnerable to many natural hazards, especially earthquakes. The country sits at the junction of three tectonic plates - Indian, Eurasian, and the Burma 'sliver' of the Sunda plate. These form two boundaries where plates converge- the India-Eurasia plate boundary to the north forming the Himalaya Arc and the India-Burma plate boundary to the east forming the Indo-Burma Arc. The India-Burma plate boundary is exceptionally wide because collision with the GBD feeds an exception amount of sediment into the subduction zone. Thus the Himalayan continent collision orogeny along with its syntaxes to the N and NE of Bangladesh and the Burma Arc subduction boundary surround Bangladesh on two sides with active faults of regional scale, raising the potential for high-magnitude earthquakes. In recent years Bangladesh has experienced minor to moderate earthquakes. Historical records show that major and great earthquakes have ravaged the country and the neighboring region several times over the last 450 years. Field observations of Tertiary structures along the Chittagong-Teknaf coast reveal that the rupture of 1762 Arakan megathrust earthquake extended as far north as the Sitakund anticline to the north of the city of Chittagong. This earthquake brought changes to the landscape, uplifting the Teknaf peninsula and St. Martin's Island by about 2-2.5 m, and activated two mud volcanos along the axis of the Sitakund anticline, where large tabular blocks of exotic crystalline limestone, were tectonically transported from a deep-seated formation along with the eruptive mud. Vast area of the coast including inland areas east of the lower Meghna River were inundated. More than 500 peoples died near

Limitation of the Predominant-Period Estimator for Earthquake Early Warning and the Initial Rupture of Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Yamada, T.; Ide, S.

2007-12-01

Earthquake early warning is an important and challenging issue for the reduction of the seismic damage, especially for the mitigation of human suffering. One of the most important problems in earthquake early warning systems is how immediately we can estimate the final size of an earthquake after we observe the ground motion. It is relevant to the problem whether the initial rupture of an earthquake has some information associated with its final size. Nakamura (1988) developed the Urgent Earthquake Detection and Alarm System (UrEDAS). It calculates the predominant period of the P wave (τp) and estimates the magnitude of an earthquake immediately after the P wave arrival from the value of τpmax, or the maximum value of τp. The similar approach has been adapted by other earthquake alarm systems (e.g., Allen and Kanamori (2003)). To investigate the characteristic of the parameter τp and the effect of the length of the time window (TW) in the τpmax calculation, we analyze the high-frequency recordings of earthquakes at very close distances in the Mponeng mine in South Africa. We find that values of τpmax have upper and lower limits. For larger earthquakes whose source durations are longer than TW, the values of τpmax have an upper limit which depends on TW. On the other hand, the values for smaller earthquakes have a lower limit which is proportional to the sampling interval. For intermediate earthquakes, the values of τpmax are close to their typical source durations. These two limits and the slope for intermediate earthquakes yield an artificial final size dependence of τpmax in a wide size range. The parameter τpmax is useful for detecting large earthquakes and broadcasting earthquake early warnings. However, its dependence on the final size of earthquakes does not suggest that the earthquake rupture is deterministic. This is because τpmax does not always have a direct relation to the physical quantities of an earthquake.

The Iquique earthquake sequence of April 2014: Bayesian modeling accounting for prediction uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Duputel, Zacharie; Jiang, Junle; Jolivet, Romain; Simons, Mark; Rivera, Luis; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Riel, Bryan; Owen, Susan E; Moore, Angelyn W; Samsonov, Sergey V; Ortega Culaciati, Francisco; Minson, Sarah E.

2016-01-01

The subduction zone in northern Chile is a well-identified seismic gap that last ruptured in 1877. On 1 April 2014, this region was struck by a large earthquake following a two week long series of foreshocks. This study combines a wide range of observations, including geodetic, tsunami, and seismic data, to produce a reliable kinematic slip model of the Mw=8.1 main shock and a static slip model of the Mw=7.7 aftershock. We use a novel Bayesian modeling approach that accounts for uncertainty in the Green's functions, both static and dynamic, while avoiding nonphysical regularization. The results reveal a sharp slip zone, more compact than previously thought, located downdip of the foreshock sequence and updip of high-frequency sources inferred by back-projection analysis. Both the main shock and the Mw=7.7 aftershock did not rupture to the trench and left most of the seismic gap unbroken, leaving the possibility of a future large earthquake in the region.

Duration of Tsunami Generation Longer than Duration of Seismic Wave Generation in the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Fujihara, S.; Korenaga, M.; Kawaji, K.; Akiyama, S.

2013-12-01

We try to compare and evaluate the nature of tsunami generation and seismic wave generation in occurrence of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (hereafter, called as TOH11), in terms of two type of moment rate functions, inferred from finite source imaging of tsunami waveforms and seismic waveforms. Since 1970's, the nature of "tsunami earthquakes" has been discussed in many researches (e.g. Kanamori, 1972; Kanamori and Kikuchi, 1993; Kikuchi and Kanamori, 1995; Ide et al., 1993; Satake, 1994) mostly based on analysis of seismic waveform data , in terms of the "slow" nature of tsunami earthquakes (e.g., the 1992 Nicaragura earthquake). Although TOH11 is not necessarily understood as a tsunami earthquake, TOH11 is one of historical earthquakes that simultaneously generated large seismic waves and tsunami. Also, TOH11 is one of earthquakes which was observed both by seismic observation network and tsunami observation network around the Japanese islands. Therefore, for the purpose of analyzing the nature of tsunami generation, we try to utilize tsunami waveform data as much as possible. In our previous studies of TOH11 (Fujihara et al., 2012a; Fujihara et al., 2012b), we inverted tsunami waveforms at GPS wave gauges of NOWPHAS to image the spatio-temporal slip distribution. The "temporal" nature of our tsunami source model is generally consistent with the other tsunami source models (e.g., Satake et al, 2013). For seismic waveform inversion based on 1-D structure, here we inverted broadband seismograms at GSN stations based on the teleseismic body-wave inversion scheme (Kikuchi and Kanamori, 2003). Also, for seismic waveform inversion considering the inhomogeneous internal structure, we inverted strong motion seismograms at K-NET and KiK-net stations, based on 3-D Green's functions (Fujihara et al., 2013a; Fujihara et al., 2013b). The gross "temporal" nature of our seismic source models are generally consistent with the other seismic source models (e.g., Yoshida et al

Aftereffects of Subduction-Zone Earthquakes: Potential Tsunami Hazards along the Japan Sea Coast.

Science.gov (United States)

Minoura, Koji; Sugawara, Daisuke; Yamanoi, Tohru; Yamada, Tsutomu

2015-10-01

The 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake is a typical subduction-zone earthquake and is the 4th largest earthquake after the beginning of instrumental observation of earthquakes in the 19th century. In fact, the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake displaced the northeast Japan island arc horizontally and vertically. The displacement largely changed the tectonic situation of the arc from compressive to tensile. The 9th century in Japan was a period of natural hazards caused by frequent large-scale earthquakes. The aseismic tsunamis that inflicted damage on the Japan Sea coast in the 11th century were related to the occurrence of massive earthquakes that represented the final stage of a period of high seismic activity. Anti-compressive tectonics triggered by the subduction-zone earthquakes induced gravitational instability, which resulted in the generation of tsunamis caused by slope failing at the arc-back-arc boundary. The crustal displacement after the 2011 earthquake infers an increased risk of unexpected local tsunami flooding in the Japan Sea coastal areas.

Source mechanisms of the 2000 earthquake swarm in the West Bohemia/Vogtland region (Central Europe)

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Horálek, Josef; Šílený, Jan

2013-01-01

Roč. 194, č. 2 (2013), s. 979-999 ISSN 0956-540X R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA300120911 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : fracture and flow * earthquake source observations * intra-plate processes * dynamics and mechanics of faulting Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 2.724, year: 2013

Influence of Great East Japan Earthquake on neutron source station in J-PARC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sakai, Kenji; Sakamoto, Shinichi; Kinoshita, Hidetaka; Seki, Masakazu; Haga, Katsuhiro; Kogawa, Hiroyuki; Wakui, Takashi; Naoe, Takashi; Kasugai, Yoshimi; Tatsumoto, Hideki; Aso, Tomokazu; Hasegawa, Shoichi; Maekawa, Fujio; Oikawa, Kenichi; Ooi, Motoki; Watanabe, Akihiko; Teshigawara, Makoto; Meigo, Shin-ichiro; Ikezaki, Kiyomi; Akutsu, Atsushi; Harada, Masahide; Takada, Hiroshi; Futakawa, Masatoshi

2012-03-01

This report investigates the behavior, damage and restoration of each component in a neutron source station of the Materials and Life Science Experimental Facility (MLF) of J-PARC at the time of the Great East Japan Earthquake (M9.0) and verified the safety design for emergency accidents in the neutron source station. The neutron source station of the MLF at the J-PARC generates neutrons by injecting proton beams into a mercury target, and supplies to user experimental apparatuses. It consists of the mercury target, three moderators filled with supercritical hydrogen, reflectors, water cooling shields, a vessel filled with helium gas, neutron beam shutters, biological-shields and so on. In case of loss of their external electric power supply, a control function for the source station is kept by an emergency power supply. According to interlock sequences in an emergency, a signal for terminating the beam operation is transmitted, the circulators shut down automatically, and the hydrogen gas is released out of the building. On March 11 in 2011, strong shocks caused by the earthquake were observed all over Ibaraki prefecture. At the date, a status of the source station was ready for the restart of beam operation. In the MLF, after strong quakes were detected at the several instruments, the external power supply was lost, all of the circulators shut down automatically, and the hydrogen gas was released. The leakages of mercury, hydrogen and radio-activation gases did not occur. While, the quakes made gaps between the shield blocks and ruptured external pipe lines for compressed air and water by subsidence around the building. But significant damages to the components were not found though the pressure drop of compressed air lines influenced on the mercury target trolley lock system and pneumatic operation values. These results substantiated the validity of the safety design for emergency accidents in the neutron source station in the MLF, and suggested several points

Earthquakes of Garhwal Himalaya region of NW Himalaya, India: A study of relocated earthquakes and their seismogenic source and stress

Science.gov (United States)

R, A. P.; Paul, A.; Singh, S.

2017-12-01

Since the continent-continent collision 55 Ma, the Himalaya has accommodated 2000 km of convergence along its arc. The strain energy is being accumulated at a rate of 37-44 mm/yr and releases at time as earthquakes. The Garhwal Himalaya is located at the western side of a Seismic Gap, where a great earthquake is overdue atleast since 200 years. This seismic gap (Central Seismic Gap: CSG) with 52% probability for a future great earthquake is located between the rupture zones of two significant/great earthquakes, viz. the 1905 Kangra earthquake of M 7.8 and the 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquake of M 8.0; and the most recent one, the 2015 Gorkha earthquake of M 7.8 is in the eastern side of this seismic gap (CSG). The Garhwal Himalaya is one of the ideal locations of the Himalaya where all the major Himalayan structures and the Himalayan Seimsicity Belt (HSB) can ably be described and studied. In the present study, we are presenting the spatio-temporal analysis of the relocated local micro-moderate earthquakes, recorded by a seismicity monitoring network, which is operational since, 2007. The earthquake locations are relocated using the HypoDD (double difference hypocenter method for earthquake relocations) program. The dataset from July, 2007- September, 2015 have been used in this study to estimate their spatio-temporal relationships, moment tensor (MT) solutions for the earthquakes of M>3.0, stress tensors and their interactions. We have also used the composite focal mechanism solutions for small earthquakes. The majority of the MT solutions show thrust type mechanism and located near the mid-crustal-ramp (MCR) structure of the detachment surface at 8-15 km depth beneath the outer lesser Himalaya and higher Himalaya regions. The prevailing stress has been identified to be compressional towards NNE-SSW, which is the direction of relative plate motion between the India and Eurasia continental plates. The low friction coefficient estimated along with the stress inversions

Sensitivity of broad-band ground-motion simulations to earthquake source and Earth structure variations: an application to the Messina Straits (Italy)

KAUST Repository

Imperatori, W.; Mai, Paul Martin

2012-01-01

We find that ground-motion variability associated to differences in crustal models is constant and becomes important at intermediate and long periods. On the other hand, source-induced ground-motion variability is negligible at long periods and strong at intermediate-short periods. Using our source-modelling approach and the three different 1-D structural models, we investigate shaking levels for the 1908 Mw 7.1 Messina earthquake adopting a recently proposed model for fault geometry and final slip. Our simulations suggest that peak levels in Messina and Reggio Calabria must have reached 0.6-0.7 g during this earthquake.

Determination of Design Basis Earthquake ground motion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kato, Muneaki [Japan Atomic Power Co., Tokyo (Japan)

1997-03-01

This paper describes principle of determining of Design Basis Earthquake following the Examination Guide, some examples on actual sites including earthquake sources to be considered, earthquake response spectrum and simulated seismic waves. In sppendix of this paper, furthermore, seismic safety review for N.P.P designed before publication of the Examination Guide was summarized with Check Basis Earthquake. (J.P.N.)

Determination of Design Basis Earthquake ground motion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kato, Muneaki

1997-01-01

This paper describes principle of determining of Design Basis Earthquake following the Examination Guide, some examples on actual sites including earthquake sources to be considered, earthquake response spectrum and simulated seismic waves. In sppendix of this paper, furthermore, seismic safety review for N.P.P designed before publication of the Examination Guide was summarized with Check Basis Earthquake. (J.P.N.)

Earthquake simulations with time-dependent nucleation and long-range interactions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. H. Dieterich

1995-01-01

Full Text Available A model for rapid simulation of earthquake sequences is introduced which incorporates long-range elastic interactions among fault elements and time-dependent earthquake nucleation inferred from experimentally derived rate- and state-dependent fault constitutive properties. The model consists of a planar two-dimensional fault surface which is periodic in both the x- and y-directions. Elastic interactions among fault elements are represented by an array of elastic dislocations. Approximate solutions for earthquake nucleation and dynamics of earthquake slip are introduced which permit computations to proceed in steps that are determined by the transitions from one sliding state to the next. The transition-driven time stepping and avoidance of systems of simultaneous equations permit rapid simulation of large sequences of earthquake events on computers of modest capacity, while preserving characteristics of the nucleation and rupture propagation processes evident in more detailed models. Earthquakes simulated with this model reproduce many of the observed spatial and temporal characteristics of clustering phenomena including foreshock and aftershock sequences. Clustering arises because the time dependence of the nucleation process is highly sensitive to stress perturbations caused by nearby earthquakes. Rate of earthquake activity following a prior earthquake decays according to Omori's aftershock decay law and falls off with distance.

Reassessment of source parameters for three major earthquakes in the East African rift system from historical seismograms and bulletins

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. Kulhánek

2000-06-01

Full Text Available Source parameters for three majo earthquakes in the East African rift are re-computed from historical seismograms and bulletins. The main shock and the largest foreshock of the August 25, 1906 earthquake sequence in the main Ethiopian rift are re-located on the eastern shoulder of the rift segment.The magnitude of the main shock is estimated to be 6.5 (Mw from spectral analysis. The December 13, 1910 earthquake in the Rukwa rift (Western Tanzania indicated a significant strike-slip component from teleseismcs body-waveform inversion for fault mechanism and seismic moment. The January 6, 1928 earthquake in the Gregory rift (Kenya showed a multiple rupture process and unusually long duration for a size of 6.6(Mw. The May 20, 1990 earthquake in Southern Sudan, mentioned merely for the sake of comparison, is the largest of all instrumentally recorded events in the East African rift system. Despite the fact that the mode of deformation in the continental rift is predominantly of extensional nature, the three largest earthquakes known to occur in the circum-Tanzanian craton have shallow focal depths and significant strike-slip component in their fault mechanisms. This and similar works will enrich the database for seismic hazard assessment in East Africa.

The puzzle of the 1996 Bárdarbunga, Iceland, earthquake: no volumetric component in the source mechanism

Science.gov (United States)

Tkalcic, Hrvoje; Dreger, Douglas S.; Foulger, Gillian R.; Julian, Bruce R.

2009-01-01

A volcanic earthquake with Mw 5.6 occurred beneath the Bárdarbunga caldera in Iceland on 29 September 1996. This earthquake is one of a decade-long sequence of  events at Bárdarbunga with non-double-couple mechanisms in the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog. Fortunately, it was recorded well by the regional-scale Iceland Hotspot Project seismic experiment. We investigated the event with a complete moment tensor inversion method using regional long-period seismic waveforms and a composite structural model. The moment tensor inversion using data from stations of the Iceland Hotspot Project yields a non-double-couple solution with a 67% vertically oriented compensated linear vector dipole component, a 32% double-couple component, and a statistically insignificant (2%) volumetric (isotropic) contraction. This indicates the absence of a net volumetric component, which is puzzling in the case of a large volcanic earthquake that apparently is not explained by shear slip on a planar fault. A possible volcanic mechanism that can produce an earthquake without a volumetric component involves two offset sources with similar but opposite volume changes. We show that although such a model cannot be ruled out, the circumstances under which it could happen are rare.

Normal Faulting in the 1923 Berdún Earthquake and Postorogenic Extension in the Pyrenees

Science.gov (United States)

Stich, Daniel; Martín, Rosa; Batlló, Josep; Macià, Ramón; Mancilla, Flor de Lis; Morales, Jose

2018-04-01

The 10 July 1923 earthquake near Berdún (Spain) is the largest instrumentally recorded event in the Pyrenees. We recover old analog seismograms and use 20 hand-digitized waveforms for regional moment tensor inversion. We estimate moment magnitude Mw 5.4, centroid depth of 8 km, and a pure normal faulting source with strike parallel to the mountain chain (N292°E), dip of 66° and rake of -88°. The new mechanism fits into the general predominance of normal faulting in the Pyrenees and extension inferred from Global Positioning System data. The unique location of the 1923 earthquake, near the south Pyrenean thrust front, shows that the extensional regime is not confined to the axial zone where high topography and the crustal root are located. Together with seismicity near the northern mountain front, this indicates that gravitational potential energy in the western Pyrenees is not extracted locally but induces a wide distribution of postorogenic deformation.

Upper-mantle water stratification inferred from observations of the 2012 Indian Ocean earthquake.

Science.gov (United States)

Masuti, Sagar; Barbot, Sylvain D; Karato, Shun-Ichiro; Feng, Lujia; Banerjee, Paramesh

2016-10-20

Water, the most abundant volatile in Earth's interior, preserves the young surface of our planet by catalysing mantle convection, lubricating plate tectonics and feeding arc volcanism. Since planetary accretion, water has been exchanged between the hydrosphere and the geosphere, but its depth distribution in the mantle remains elusive. Water drastically reduces the strength of olivine and this effect can be exploited to estimate the water content of olivine from the mechanical response of the asthenosphere to stress perturbations such as the ones following large earthquakes. Here, we exploit the sensitivity to water of the strength of olivine, the weakest and most abundant mineral in the upper mantle, and observations of the exceptionally large (moment magnitude 8.6) 2012 Indian Ocean earthquake to constrain the stratification of water content in the upper mantle. Taking into account a wide range of temperature conditions and the transient creep of olivine, we explain the transient deformation in the aftermath of the earthquake that was recorded by continuous geodetic stations along Sumatra as the result of water- and stress-activated creep of olivine. This implies a minimum water content of about 0.01 per cent by weight-or 1,600 H atoms per million Si atoms-in the asthenosphere (the part of the upper mantle below the lithosphere). The earthquake ruptured conjugate faults down to great depths, compatible with dry olivine in the oceanic lithosphere. We attribute the steep rheological contrast to dehydration across the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary, presumably by buoyant melt migration to form the oceanic crust.

Selection of earthquake resistant design criteria for nuclear power plants: Methodology and technical cases: Dislocation models of near-source earthquake ground motion: A review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luco, J.E.

1987-05-01

The solutions available for a number of dynamic dislocation fault models are examined in an attempt at establishing some of the expected characteristics of earthquake ground motion in the near-source region. In particular, solutions for two-dimensional anti-plane shear and plane-strain models as well as for three-dimensional fault models in full space, uniform half-space and layered half-space media are reviewed

The CATDAT damaging earthquakes database

Science.gov (United States)

Daniell, J. E.; Khazai, B.; Wenzel, F.; Vervaeck, A.

2011-08-01

The global CATDAT damaging earthquakes and secondary effects (tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefaction and fault rupture) database was developed to validate, remove discrepancies, and expand greatly upon existing global databases; and to better understand the trends in vulnerability, exposure, and possible future impacts of such historic earthquakes. Lack of consistency and errors in other earthquake loss databases frequently cited and used in analyses was a major shortcoming in the view of the authors which needed to be improved upon. Over 17 000 sources of information have been utilised, primarily in the last few years, to present data from over 12 200 damaging earthquakes historically, with over 7000 earthquakes since 1900 examined and validated before insertion into the database. Each validated earthquake includes seismological information, building damage, ranges of social losses to account for varying sources (deaths, injuries, homeless, and affected), and economic losses (direct, indirect, aid, and insured). Globally, a slightly increasing trend in economic damage due to earthquakes is not consistent with the greatly increasing exposure. The 1923 Great Kanto (214 billion USD damage; 2011 HNDECI-adjusted dollars) compared to the 2011 Tohoku (>300 billion USD at time of writing), 2008 Sichuan and 1995 Kobe earthquakes show the increasing concern for economic loss in urban areas as the trend should be expected to increase. Many economic and social loss values not reported in existing databases have been collected. Historical GDP (Gross Domestic Product), exchange rate, wage information, population, HDI (Human Development Index), and insurance information have been collected globally to form comparisons. This catalogue is the largest known cross-checked global historic damaging earthquake database and should have far-reaching consequences for earthquake loss estimation, socio-economic analysis, and the global reinsurance field.

The CATDAT damaging earthquakes database

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. E. Daniell

2011-08-01

Full Text Available The global CATDAT damaging earthquakes and secondary effects (tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefaction and fault rupture database was developed to validate, remove discrepancies, and expand greatly upon existing global databases; and to better understand the trends in vulnerability, exposure, and possible future impacts of such historic earthquakes.

Lack of consistency and errors in other earthquake loss databases frequently cited and used in analyses was a major shortcoming in the view of the authors which needed to be improved upon.

Over 17 000 sources of information have been utilised, primarily in the last few years, to present data from over 12 200 damaging earthquakes historically, with over 7000 earthquakes since 1900 examined and validated before insertion into the database. Each validated earthquake includes seismological information, building damage, ranges of social losses to account for varying sources (deaths, injuries, homeless, and affected, and economic losses (direct, indirect, aid, and insured.

Globally, a slightly increasing trend in economic damage due to earthquakes is not consistent with the greatly increasing exposure. The 1923 Great Kanto ($214 billion USD damage; 2011 HNDECI-adjusted dollars compared to the 2011 Tohoku (>$300 billion USD at time of writing, 2008 Sichuan and 1995 Kobe earthquakes show the increasing concern for economic loss in urban areas as the trend should be expected to increase. Many economic and social loss values not reported in existing databases have been collected. Historical GDP (Gross Domestic Product, exchange rate, wage information, population, HDI (Human Development Index, and insurance information have been collected globally to form comparisons.

This catalogue is the largest known cross-checked global historic damaging earthquake database and should have far-reaching consequences for earthquake loss estimation, socio-economic analysis, and the global

Source Parameters of the 8 October, 2005 Mw7.6 Kashmir Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Mandal, Prantik; Chadha, R. K.; Kumar, N.; Raju, I. P.; Satyamurty, C.

2007-12-01

During the last six years, the National Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad has established a semi-permanent seismological network of 5 broadband seismographs and 10 accelerographs in the Kachchh seismic zone, Gujarat, with the prime objective to monitor the continued aftershock activity of the 2001 Mw7.7 Bhuj mainshock. The reliable and accurate broadband data for the Mw 7.6 (8 Oct., 2005) Kashmir earthquake and its aftershocks from this network, as well as from the Hyderabad Geoscope station, enabled us to estimate the group velocity dispersion characteristics and the one-dimensional regional shear-velocity structure of peninsular India. Firstly, we measure Rayleigh- and Love-wave group velocity dispersion curves in the range of 8 to 35 sec and invert these curves to estimate the crustal and upper mantle structure below the western part of peninsular India. Our best model suggests a two-layered crust: The upper crust is 13.8-km thick with a shear velocity (Vs) of 3.2 km/s; the corresponding values for the lower crust are 24.9 km and 3.7 km/sec. The shear velocity for the upper mantle is found to be 4.65 km/sec. Based on this structure, we perform a moment tensor (MT) inversion of the bandpass (0.05 0.02 Hz) filtered seismograms of the Kashmir earthquake. The best fit is obtained for a source located at a depth of 30 km, with a seismic moment, Mo, of 1.6 × 1027 dyne-cm, and a focal mechanism with strike 19.5°, dip 42°, and rake 167°. The long-period magnitude (MA ~ Mw) of this earthquake is estimated to be 7.31. An analysis of well-developed sPn and sSn regional crustal phases from the bandpassed (0.02 0.25 Hz) seismograms of this earthquake at four stations in Kachchh suggests a focal depth of 30.8 km.

Regularized inversion of controlled source and earthquake data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramachandran, Kumar

2012-01-01

Estimation of the seismic velocity structure of the Earth's crust and upper mantle from travel-time data has advanced greatly in recent years. Forward modelling trial-and-error methods have been superseded by tomographic methods which allow more objective analysis of large two-dimensional and three-dimensional refraction and/or reflection data sets. The fundamental purpose of travel-time tomography is to determine the velocity structure of a medium by analysing the time it takes for a wave generated at a source point within the medium to arrive at a distribution of receiver points. Tomographic inversion of first-arrival travel-time data is a nonlinear problem since both the velocity of the medium and ray paths in the medium are unknown. The solution for such a problem is typically obtained by repeated application of linearized inversion. Regularization of the nonlinear problem reduces the ill posedness inherent in the tomographic inversion due to the under-determined nature of the problem and the inconsistencies in the observed data. This paper discusses the theory of regularized inversion for joint inversion of controlled source and earthquake data, and results from synthetic data testing and application to real data. The results obtained from tomographic inversion of synthetic data and real data from the northern Cascadia subduction zone show that the velocity model and hypocentral parameters can be efficiently estimated using this approach. (paper)

What Can Sounds Tell Us About Earthquake Interactions?

Science.gov (United States)

Aiken, C.; Peng, Z.

2012-12-01

It is important not only for seismologists but also for educators to effectively convey information about earthquakes and the influences earthquakes can have on each other. Recent studies using auditory display [e.g. Kilb et al., 2012; Peng et al. 2012] have depicted catastrophic earthquakes and the effects large earthquakes can have on other parts of the world. Auditory display of earthquakes, which combines static images with time-compressed sound of recorded seismic data, is a new approach to disseminating information to a general audience about earthquakes and earthquake interactions. Earthquake interactions are influential to understanding the underlying physics of earthquakes and other seismic phenomena such as tremors in addition to their source characteristics (e.g. frequency contents, amplitudes). Earthquake interactions can include, for example, a large, shallow earthquake followed by increased seismicity around the mainshock rupture (i.e. aftershocks) or even a large earthquake triggering earthquakes or tremors several hundreds to thousands of kilometers away [Hill and Prejean, 2007; Peng and Gomberg, 2010]. We use standard tools like MATLAB, QuickTime Pro, and Python to produce animations that illustrate earthquake interactions. Our efforts are focused on producing animations that depict cross-section (side) views of tremors triggered along the San Andreas Fault by distant earthquakes, as well as map (bird's eye) views of mainshock-aftershock sequences such as the 2011/08/23 Mw5.8 Virginia earthquake sequence. These examples of earthquake interactions include sonifying earthquake and tremor catalogs as musical notes (e.g. piano keys) as well as audifying seismic data using time-compression. Our overall goal is to use auditory display to invigorate a general interest in earthquake seismology that leads to the understanding of how earthquakes occur, how earthquakes influence one another as well as tremors, and what the musical properties of these

A Test Case for the Source Inversion Validation: The 2014 ML 5.5 Orkney, South Africa Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Ellsworth, W. L.; Ogasawara, H.; Boettcher, M. S.

2017-12-01

The ML5.5 earthquake of August 5, 2014 occurred on a near-vertical strike slip fault below abandoned and active gold mines near Orkney, South Africa. A dense network of surface and in-mine seismometers recorded the earthquake and its aftershock sequence. In-situ stress measurements and rock samples through the damage zone and rupture surface are anticipated to be available from the "Drilling into Seismogenic Zones of M2.0-M5.5 Earthquakes in South African gold mines" project (DSeis) that is currently progressing toward the rupture zone (Science, doi: 10.1126/science.aan6905). As of 24 July, 95% of drilled core has been recovered from a 427m-section of the 1st hole from 2.9 km depth with minimal core discing and borehole breakouts. A 2nd hole is planned to intersect the fault at greater depth. Absolute differential stress will be measured along the holes and frictional characteristics of the recovered core will be determined in the lab. Surface seismic reflection data and exploration drilling from the surface down to the mining horizon at 3km depth is also available to calibrate the velocity structure above the mining horizon and image reflective geological boundaries and major faults below the mining horizon. The remarkable quality and range of geophysical data available for the Orkney earthquake makes this event an ideal test case for the Source Inversion Validation community using actual seismic data to determine the spatial and temporal evolution of earthquake rupture. We invite anyone with an interest in kinematic modeling to develop a rupture model for the Orkney earthquake. Seismic recordings of the earthquake and information on the faulting geometry can be found in Moyer et al. (2017, doi: 10.1785/0220160218). A workshop supported by the Southern California Earthquake Center will be held in the spring of 2018 to compare kinematic models. Those interested in participating in the modeling exercise and the workshop should contact the authors for additional

Prediction of site specific ground motion for large earthquake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kamae, Katsuhiro; Irikura, Kojiro; Fukuchi, Yasunaga.

1990-01-01

In this paper, we apply the semi-empirical synthesis method by IRIKURA (1983, 1986) to the estimation of site specific ground motion using accelerograms observed at Kumatori in Osaka prefecture. Target earthquakes used here are a comparatively distant earthquake (Δ=95 km, M=5.6) caused by the YAMASAKI fault and a near earthquake (Δ=27 km, M=5.6). The results obtained are as follows. 1) The accelerograms from the distant earthquake (M=5.6) are synthesized using the aftershock records (M=4.3) for 1983 YAMASAKI fault earthquake whose source parameters have been obtained by other authors from the hypocentral distribution of the aftershocks. The resultant synthetic motions show a good agreement with the observed ones. 2) The synthesis for a near earthquake (M=5.6, we call this target earthquake) are made using a small earthquake which occurred in the neighborhood of the target earthquake. Here, we apply two methods for giving the parameters for synthesis. One method is to use the parameters of YAMASAKI fault earthquake which has the same magnitude as the target earthquake, and the other is to use the parameters obtained from several existing empirical formulas. The resultant synthetic motion with the former parameters shows a good agreement with the observed one, but that with the latter does not. 3) We estimate the source parameters from the source spectra of several earthquakes which have been observed in this site. Consequently we find that the small earthquakes (M<4) as Green's functions should be carefully used because the stress drops are not constant. 4) We propose that we should designate not only the magnitudes but also seismic moments of the target earthquake and the small earthquake. (J.P.N.)

Tsunami Simulations in the Western Makran Using Hypothetical Heterogeneous Source Models from World's Great Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Rashidi, Amin; Shomali, Zaher Hossein; Keshavarz Farajkhah, Nasser

2018-04-01

The western segment of Makran subduction zone is characterized with almost no major seismicity and no large earthquake for several centuries. A possible episode for this behavior is that this segment is currently locked accumulating energy to generate possible great future earthquakes. Taking into account this assumption, a hypothetical rupture area is considered in the western Makran to set different tsunamigenic scenarios. Slip distribution models of four recent tsunamigenic earthquakes, i.e. 2015 Chile M w 8.3, 2011 Tohoku-Oki M w 9.0 (using two different scenarios) and 2006 Kuril Islands M w 8.3, are scaled into the rupture area in the western Makran zone. The numerical modeling is performed to evaluate near-field and far-field tsunami hazards. Heterogeneity in slip distribution results in higher tsunami amplitudes. However, its effect reduces from local tsunamis to regional and distant tsunamis. Among all considered scenarios for the western Makran, only a similar tsunamigenic earthquake to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki event can re-produce a significant far-field tsunami and is considered as the worst case scenario. The potential of a tsunamigenic source is dominated by the degree of slip heterogeneity and the location of greatest slip on the rupture area. For the scenarios with similar slip patterns, the mean slip controls their relative power. Our conclusions also indicate that along the entire Makran coasts, the southeastern coast of Iran is the most vulnerable area subjected to tsunami hazard.

Tsunami Simulations in the Western Makran Using Hypothetical Heterogeneous Source Models from World's Great Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Rashidi, Amin; Shomali, Zaher Hossein; Keshavarz Farajkhah, Nasser

2018-03-01

The western segment of Makran subduction zone is characterized with almost no major seismicity and no large earthquake for several centuries. A possible episode for this behavior is that this segment is currently locked accumulating energy to generate possible great future earthquakes. Taking into account this assumption, a hypothetical rupture area is considered in the western Makran to set different tsunamigenic scenarios. Slip distribution models of four recent tsunamigenic earthquakes, i.e. 2015 Chile M w 8.3, 2011 Tohoku-Oki M w 9.0 (using two different scenarios) and 2006 Kuril Islands M w 8.3, are scaled into the rupture area in the western Makran zone. The numerical modeling is performed to evaluate near-field and far-field tsunami hazards. Heterogeneity in slip distribution results in higher tsunami amplitudes. However, its effect reduces from local tsunamis to regional and distant tsunamis. Among all considered scenarios for the western Makran, only a similar tsunamigenic earthquake to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki event can re-produce a significant far-field tsunami and is considered as the worst case scenario. The potential of a tsunamigenic source is dominated by the degree of slip heterogeneity and the location of greatest slip on the rupture area. For the scenarios with similar slip patterns, the mean slip controls their relative power. Our conclusions also indicate that along the entire Makran coasts, the southeastern coast of Iran is the most vulnerable area subjected to tsunami hazard.

Tilt Precursors before Earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault, California.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnston, M J; Mortensen, C E

1974-12-13

An array of 14 biaxial shallow-borehole tiltmeters (at 1O(-7) radian sensitivity) has been installed along 85 kilometers of the San Andreas fault during the past year. Earthquake-related changes in tilt have been simultaneously observed on up to four independent instruments. At earthquake distances greater than 10 earthquake source dimensions, there are few clear indications of tilt change. For the four instruments with the longest records (> 10 months), 26 earthquakes have occurred since July 1973 with at least one instrument closer than 10 source dimensions and 8 earthquakes with more than one instrument within that distance. Precursors in tilt direction have been observed before more than 10 earthquakes or groups of earthquakes, and no similar effect has yet been seen without the occurrence of an earthquake.

Stratigraphic and microfossil evidence for a 4500-year history of Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes and tsunamis at Yaquina River estuary, Oregon, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Graehl, Nicholas A; Kelsey, Harvey M.; Witter, Robert C.; Hemphill-Haley, Eileen; Engelhart, Simon E.

2015-01-01

The Sallys Bend swamp and marsh area on the central Oregon coast onshore of the Cascadia subduction zone contains a sequence of buried coastal wetland soils that extends back ∼4500 yr B.P. The upper 10 of the 12 soils are represented in multiple cores. Each soil is abruptly overlain by a sandy deposit and then, in most cases, by greater than 10 cm of mud. For eight of the 10 buried soils, times of soil burial are constrained through radiocarbon ages on fine, delicate detritus from the top of the buried soil; for two of the buried soils, diatom and foraminifera data constrain paleoenvironment at the time of soil burial.We infer that each buried soil represents a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake because the soils are laterally extensive and abruptly overlain by sandy deposits and mud. Preservation of coseismically buried soils occurred from 4500 yr ago until ∼500–600 yr ago, after which preservation was compromised by cessation of gradual relative sea-level rise, which in turn precluded drowning of marsh soils during instances of coseismic subsidence. Based on grain-size and microfossil data, sandy deposits overlying buried soils accumulated immediately after a subduction zone earthquake, during tsunami incursion into Sallys Bend. The possibility that the sandy deposits were sourced directly from landslides triggered upstream in the Yaquina River basin by seismic shaking was discounted based on sedimentologic, microfossil, and depositional site characteristics of the sandy deposits, which were inconsistent with a fluvial origin. Biostratigraphic analyses of sediment above two buried soils—in the case of two earthquakes, one occurring shortly after 1541–1708 cal. yr B.P. and the other occurring shortly after 3227–3444 cal. yr B.P.—provide estimates that coseismic subsidence was a minimum of 0.4 m. The average recurrence interval of subduction zone earthquakes is 420–580 yr, based on an ∼3750–4050-yr-long record and seven to nine interearthquake

Overview of the relations earthquake source parameters and the specification of strong ground motion for design purposes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernreuter, D.L.

1977-08-01

One of the most important steps in the seismic design process is the specification of the appropriate ground motion to be input into the design analysis. From the point-of-view of engineering design analysis, the important parameters are peak ground acceleration, spectral shape and peak spectral levels. In a few cases, ground displacement is a useful parameter. The earthquake is usually specified by giving its magnitude and either the epicentral distance or the distance of the closest point on the causitive fault to the site. Typically, the appropriate ground motion parameters are obtained using the specified magnitude and distance in equations obtained from regression analysis among the appropriate variables. Two major difficulties with such an approach are: magnitude is not the best parameter to use to define the strength of an earthquake, and little near-field data is available to establish the appropriate form for the attenuation of the ground motion with distance, source size and strength. These difficulties are important for designing a critical facility; i.e., one for which a very low risk of exceeding the design ground motion is required. Examples of such structures are nuclear power plants, schools and hospitals. for such facilities, a better understanding of the relation between the ground motion and the important earthquake source parameters could be very useful for several reasons

Stress fields in the Antarctic plate inferred from focal mechanisms of intraplate earthquakes

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Atsuki Kubo

1999-03-01

Full Text Available Typical directional features of intraplate stresses are extracted from focal mechanism solutions of earthquakes in the Antarctic plate. Typical directions of stresses are obtained in the following regions, 1 Bellingshausen Sea, 2 south of Juan-Fernandez microplate, 3 Balleny Island region and 4 Kerguelen region. P axes in regions 1 and 2 have been interpreted by ridge push force. However these interpretations are based on one focal mechanism for each event and on crude physical concept of ridge push. It is difficult to explain intraplate stress fields in these regions only by the local ridge push force. The stress direction in region 3 can be interpreted by both deformation near triple junction and deformation due to deglaciation. Earthquakes near region 4 appear to be normal fault event. Because normal fault events appear only in the younger ocean floor, the stress field may be affected by thermal features such as hot spots Quantitative modeling and superposition of various stress factors are required to discriminate among stress origins. It is difficult to discuss stress directions in and around Antarctic continent, because number of the earthquakes is not enough.

Source discrimination between Mining blasts and Earthquakes in Tianshan orogenic belt, NW China

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, L.; Zhang, M.; Wen, L.

2017-12-01

In recent years, a large number of quarry blasts have been detonated in Tianshan Mountains of China. It is necessary to discriminate those non-earthquake records from the earthquake catalogs in order to determine the real seismicity of the region. In this study, we have investigated spectral ratios and amplitude ratios as discriminants for regional seismic-event identification using explosions and earthquakes recorded at Xinjiang Seismic Network (XJSN) of China. We used a data set that includes 1071 earthquakes and 2881 non-earthquakes as training data recorded by the XJSN between years of 2009 and 2016, with both types of events in a comparable local magnitude range (1.5 to 2.9). The non-earthquake and earthquake groups were well separated by amplitude ratios of Pg/Sg, with the separation increasing with frequency when averaged over three stations. The 8- to 15-Hz Pg/Sg ratio was proved to be the most precise and accurate discriminant, which works for more than 90% of the events. In contrast, the P spectral ratio performed considerably worse with a significant overlap (about 60% overlap) between the earthquake and explosion populations. The comparison results show amplitude ratios between compressional and shear waves discriminate better than low-frequency to high-frequency spectral ratios for individual phases. In discriminating between explosions and earthquakes, none of two discriminants were able to completely separate the two populations of events. However, a joint discrimination scheme employing simple majority voting reduces misclassifications to 10%. In the region of the study, 44% of the examined seismic events were determined to be non-earthquakes and 55% to be earthquakes. The earthquakes occurring on land are related to small faults, while the blasts are concentrated in large quarries.

The 1911 M ~6.6 Calaveras earthquake: Source parameters and the role of static, viscoelastic, and dynamic coulomb stress changes imparted by the 1906 San Francisco earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Doser, D.I.; Olsen, K.B.; Pollitz, F.F.; Stein, R.S.; Toda, S.

2009-01-01

The occurrence of a right-lateral strike-slip earthquake in 1911 is inconsistent with the calculated 0.2-2.5 bar static stress decrease imparted by the 1906 rupture at that location on the Calaveras fault, and 5 yr of calculated post-1906 viscoelastic rebound does little to reload the fault. We have used all available first-motion, body-wave, and surface-wave data to explore possible focal mechanisms for the 1911 earthquake. We find that the event was most likely a right-lateral strikeslip event on the Calaveras fault, larger than, but otherwise resembling, the 1984 Mw 6.1 Morgan Hill earthquake in roughly the same location. Unfortunately, we could recover no unambiguous surface fault offset or geodetic strain data to corroborate the seismic analysis despite an exhaustive archival search. We calculated the static and dynamic Coulomb stress changes for three 1906 source models to understand stress transfer to the 1911 site. In contrast to the static stress shadow, the peak dynamic Coulomb stress imparted by the 1906 rupture promoted failure at the site of the 1911 earthquake by 1.4-5.8 bar. Perhaps because the sample is small and the aftershocks are poorly located, we find no correlation of 1906 aftershock frequency or magnitude with the peak dynamic stress, although all aftershocks sustained a calculated dynamic stress of ???3 bar. Just 20 km to the south of the 1911 epicenter, we find that surface creep of the Calaveras fault at Hollister paused for ~17 yr after 1906, about the expected delay for the calculated static stress drop imparted by the 1906 earthquake when San Andreas fault postseismic creep and viscoelastic relaxation are included. Thus, the 1911 earthquake may have been promoted by the transient dynamic stresses, while Calaveras fault creep 20 km to the south appears to have been inhibited by the static stress changes.

Stress triggering of the Lushan M7. 0 earthquake by the Wenchuan Ms8. 0 earthquake

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Wu Jianchao

2013-08-01

Full Text Available The Wenchuan Ms8. 0 earthquake and the Lushan M7. 0 earthquake occurred in the north and south segments of the Longmenshan nappe tectonic belt, respectively. Based on the focal mechanism and finite fault model of the Wenchuan Ms8. 0 earthquake, we calculated the coulomb failure stress change. The inverted coulomb stress changes based on the Nishimura and Chenji models both show that the Lushan M7. 0 earthquake occurred in the increased area of coulomb failure stress induced by the Wenchuan Ms8. 0 earthquake. The coulomb failure stress increased by approximately 0. 135 – 0. 152 bar in the source of the Lushan M7. 0 earthquake, which is far more than the stress triggering threshold. Therefore, the Lushan M7. 0 earthquake was most likely triggered by the coulomb failure stress change.

Seismic methodology in determining basis earthquake for nuclear installation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ameli Zamani, Sh.

2008-01-01

Design basis earthquake ground motions for nuclear installations should be determined to assure the design purpose of reactor safety: that reactors should be built and operated to pose no undue risk to public health and safety from earthquake and other hazards. Regarding the influence of seismic hazard to a site, large numbers of earthquake ground motions can be predicted considering possible variability among the source, path, and site parameters. However, seismic safety design using all predicted ground motions is practically impossible. In the determination of design basis earthquake ground motions it is therefore important to represent the influences of the large numbers of earthquake ground motions derived from the seismic ground motion prediction methods for the surrounding seismic sources. Viewing the relations between current design basis earthquake ground motion determination and modem earthquake ground motion estimation, a development of risk-informed design basis earthquake ground motion methodology is discussed for insight into the on going modernization of the Examination Guide for Seismic Design on NPP

TSUNAMIGENIC SOURCE MECHANISM AND EFFICIENCY OF THE MARCH 11, 2011 SANRIKU EARTHQUAKE IN JAPAN

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George Pararas-Carayannis

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The great Tohoku earthquake of March 11, 2011 generated a very destructive and anomalously high tsunami. To understand its source mechanism, an examination was undertaken of the seismotectonics of the region and of the earthquake’ focal mechanism, energy release, rupture patterns and spatial and temporal sequencing and clustering of major aftershocks. It was determined that the great tsunami resulted from a combination of crustal deformations of the ocean floor due to up-thrust tectonic motions, augmented by additional uplift due to the quake’s slow and long rupturing process, as well as to large coseismic lateral movements which compressed and deformed the compacted sediments along the accretionary prism of the overriding plane. The deformation occurred randomly and non-uniformly along parallel normal faults and along oblique, en-echelon faults to the earthquake’s overall rupture direction – the latter failing in a sequential bookshelf manner with variable slip angles. As the 1992 Nicaragua and the 2004 Sumatra earthquakes demonstrated, such bookshelf failures of sedimentary layers could contribute to anomalously high tsunamis. As with the 1896 tsunami, additional ocean floor deformation and uplift of the sediments was responsible for the higher waves generated by the 2011 earthquake. The efficiency of tsunami generation was greater along the shallow eastern segment of the fault off the Miyagi Prefecture where most of the energy release of the earthquake and the deformations occurred, while the segment off the Ibaraki Prefecture – where the rupture process was rapid – released less seismic energy, resulted in less compaction and deformation of sedimentary layers and thus to a tsunami of lesser offshore height. The greater tsunamigenic efficiency of the 2011 earthquake and high degree of the tsunami’s destructiveness along Honshu’s coastlines resulted from vertical crustal displacements of more than 10 meters due to up

Sensitivity of Coulomb stress changes to slip models of source faults: A case study for the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, J.; Xu, C.; Furlong, K.; Zhong, B.; Xiao, Z.; Yi, L.; Chen, T.

2017-12-01

Although Coulomb stress changes induced by earthquake events have been used to quantify stress transfers and to retrospectively explain stress triggering among earthquake sequences, realistic reliable prospective earthquake forecasting remains scarce. To generate a robust Coulomb stress map for earthquake forecasting, uncertainties in Coulomb stress changes associated with the source fault, receiver fault and friction coefficient and Skempton's coefficient need to be exhaustively considered. In this paper, we specifically explore the uncertainty in slip models of the source fault of the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake as a case study. This earthquake was chosen because of its wealth of finite-fault slip models. Based on the wealth of those slip models, we compute the coseismic Coulomb stress changes induced by this mainshock. Our results indicate that nearby Coulomb stress changes for each slip model can be quite different, both for the Coulomb stress map at a given depth and on the Pacific subducting slab. The triggering rates for three months of aftershocks of the mainshock, with and without considering the uncertainty in slip models, differ significantly, decreasing from 70% to 18%. Reliable Coulomb stress changes in the three seismogenic zones of Nanki, Tonankai and Tokai are insignificant, approximately only 0.04 bar. By contrast, the portions of the Pacific subducting slab at a depth of 80 km and beneath Tokyo received a positive Coulomb stress change of approximately 0.2 bar. The standard errors of the seismicity rate and earthquake probability based on the Coulomb rate-and-state model (CRS) decay much faster with elapsed time in stress triggering zones than in stress shadows, meaning that the uncertainties in Coulomb stress changes in stress triggering zones would not drastically affect assessments of the seismicity rate and earthquake probability based on the CRS in the intermediate to long term.

Spatial and size distributions of garnets grown in a pseudotachylyte generated during a lower crust earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Clerc, Adriane; Renard, François; Austrheim, Håkon; Jamtveit, Bjørn

2018-05-01

In the Bergen Arc, western Norway, rocks exhumed from the lower crust record earthquakes that formed during the Caledonian collision. These earthquakes occurred at about 30-50 km depth under granulite or amphibolite facies metamorphic conditions. Coseismic frictional heating produced pseudotachylytes in this area. We describe pseudotachylytes using field data to infer earthquake magnitude (M ≥ 6.6), low dynamic friction during rupture propagation (μd earthquake arrest. High resolution 3D X-ray microtomography imaging reveals the microstructure of a pseudotachylyte sample, including numerous garnets and their corona of plagioclase that we infer have crystallized in the pseudotachylyte. These garnets 1) have dendritic shapes and are surrounded by plagioclase coronae almost fully depleted in iron, 2) have a log-normal volume distribution, 3) increase in volume with increasing distance away from the pseudotachylyte-host rock boundary, and 4) decrease in number with increasing distance away from the pseudotachylyte -host rock boundary. These characteristics indicate fast mineral growth, likely within seconds. We propose that these new quantitative criteria may assist in the unambiguous identification of pseudotachylytes in the field.

New geological perspectives on earthquake recurrence models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schwartz, D.P.

1997-01-01

In most areas of the world the record of historical seismicity is too short or uncertain to accurately characterize the future distribution of earthquakes of different sizes in time and space. Most faults have not ruptured once, let alone repeatedly. Ultimately, the ability to correctly forecast the magnitude, location, and probability of future earthquakes depends on how well one can quantify the past behavior of earthquake sources. Paleoseismological trenching of active faults, historical surface ruptures, liquefaction features, and shaking-induced ground deformation structures provides fundamental information on the past behavior of earthquake sources. These studies quantify (a) the timing of individual past earthquakes and fault slip rates, which lead to estimates of recurrence intervals and the development of recurrence models and (b) the amount of displacement during individual events, which allows estimates of the sizes of past earthquakes on a fault. When timing and slip per event are combined with information on fault zone geometry and structure, models that define individual rupture segments can be developed. Paleoseismicity data, in the form of timing and size of past events, provide a window into the driving mechanism of the earthquake engine--the cycle of stress build-up and release

Tsunami evacuation plans for future megathrust earthquakes in Padang, Indonesia, considering stochastic earthquake scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Muhammad

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This study develops tsunami evacuation plans in Padang, Indonesia, using a stochastic tsunami simulation method. The stochastic results are based on multiple earthquake scenarios for different magnitudes (Mw 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0 that reflect asperity characteristics of the 1797 historical event in the same region. The generation of the earthquake scenarios involves probabilistic models of earthquake source parameters and stochastic synthesis of earthquake slip distributions. In total, 300 source models are generated to produce comprehensive tsunami evacuation plans in Padang. The tsunami hazard assessment results show that Padang may face significant tsunamis causing the maximum tsunami inundation height and depth of 15 and 10 m, respectively. A comprehensive tsunami evacuation plan – including horizontal evacuation area maps, assessment of temporary shelters considering the impact due to ground shaking and tsunami, and integrated horizontal–vertical evacuation time maps – has been developed based on the stochastic tsunami simulation results. The developed evacuation plans highlight that comprehensive mitigation policies can be produced from the stochastic tsunami simulation for future tsunamigenic events.

Mitigating artifacts in back-projection source imaging with implications for frequency-dependent properties of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Meng, Lingsen; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Luo, Yingdi; Wu, Wenbo; Ni, Sidao

2012-12-01

Comparing teleseismic array back-projection source images of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake with results from static and kinematic finite source inversions has revealed little overlap between the regions of high- and low-frequency slip. Motivated by this interesting observation, back-projection studies extended to intermediate frequencies, down to about 0.1 Hz, have suggested that a progressive transition of rupture properties as a function of frequency is observable. Here, by adapting the concept of array response function to non-stationary signals, we demonstrate that the "swimming artifact", a systematic drift resulting from signal non-stationarity, induces significant bias on beamforming back-projection at low frequencies. We introduce a "reference window strategy" into the multitaper-MUSIC back-projection technique and significantly mitigate the "swimming artifact" at high frequencies (1 s to 4 s). At lower frequencies, this modification yields notable, but significantly smaller, artifacts than time-domain stacking. We perform extensive synthetic tests that include a 3D regional velocity model for Japan. We analyze the recordings of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake at the USArray and at the European array at periods from 1 s to 16 s. The migration of the source location as a function of period, regardless of the back-projection methods, has characteristics that are consistent with the expected effect of the "swimming artifact". In particular, the apparent up-dip migration as a function of frequency obtained with the USArray can be explained by the "swimming artifact". This indicates that the most substantial frequency-dependence of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake source occurs at periods longer than 16 s. Thus, low-frequency back-projection needs to be further tested and validated in order to contribute to the characterization of frequency-dependent rupture properties.

Combining multiple earthquake models in real time for earthquake early warning

Science.gov (United States)

Minson, Sarah E.; Wu, Stephen; Beck, James L; Heaton, Thomas H.

2017-01-01

The ultimate goal of earthquake early warning (EEW) is to provide local shaking information to users before the strong shaking from an earthquake reaches their location. This is accomplished by operating one or more real‐time analyses that attempt to predict shaking intensity, often by estimating the earthquake’s location and magnitude and then predicting the ground motion from that point source. Other EEW algorithms use finite rupture models or may directly estimate ground motion without first solving for an earthquake source. EEW performance could be improved if the information from these diverse and independent prediction models could be combined into one unified, ground‐motion prediction. In this article, we set the forecast shaking at each location as the common ground to combine all these predictions and introduce a Bayesian approach to creating better ground‐motion predictions. We also describe how this methodology could be used to build a new generation of EEW systems that provide optimal decisions customized for each user based on the user’s individual false‐alarm tolerance and the time necessary for that user to react.

Isotope ratio mass spectrometry as a tool for source inference in forensic science: A critical review.

Science.gov (United States)

Gentile, Natacha; Siegwolf, Rolf T W; Esseiva, Pierre; Doyle, Sean; Zollinger, Kurt; Delémont, Olivier

2015-06-01

Isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) has been used in numerous fields of forensic science in a source inference perspective. This review compiles the studies published on the application of isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) to the traditional fields of forensic science so far. It completes the review of Benson et al. [1] and synthesises the extent of knowledge already gathered in the following fields: illicit drugs, flammable liquids, human provenancing, microtraces, explosives and other specific materials (packaging tapes, safety matches, plastics, etc.). For each field, a discussion assesses the state of science and highlights the relevance of the information in a forensic context. Through the different discussions which mark out the review, the potential and limitations of IRMS, as well as the needs and challenges of future studies are emphasized. The paper elicits the various dimensions of the source which can be obtained from the isotope information and demonstrates the transversal nature of IRMS as a tool for source inference. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

An empirical assessment of near-source strong ground motion for a 6.6 m{sub b} (7.5 M{sub S}) earthquake in the Eastern United States

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Campbell, Kenneth W

1984-06-01

To help assess the impact of the current U.S. Geological Survey position on the seismic safety of nuclear power plants in the Eastern United States (EUS), several techniques for estimating near-source strong ground motion for a Charleston size earthquake were evaluated. The techniques for estimating the near-source strong ground motion for a 6.6 m{sub b} (7.5 M{sub S}) in the Eastern United States which were assessed are methods based on site specific analyses, semi-theoretical scaling techniques, and intensity-based estimates. The first involves the statistical analysis of ground motion records from earthquakes and recording stations having the same general characteristics (earthquakes with magnitudes of 7.5 M{sub S} or larger, epicentral distances of 25 km or less, and sites of either soil or rock). Some recommendations for source and characterization scaling of the bias resulting primarily from an inadequate sample of near-source recordings from earthquakes of large magnitude are discussed. The second technique evaluated requires that semi-theoretical estimates of peak ground motion parameters for a 6.6 m{sub b} (7.5 M{sub S}) earthquake be obtained from scaling relations. Each relation uses a theoretical expression between peak acceleration magnitude and distance together with available strong motion data (majority coming from California) to develop a scaling relation appropriate for the Eastern United States. None of the existing ground motion models for the EUS include the potential effects of source or site characteristics. Adjustments to account for fault mechanisms, site topography, site geology, and the size and embedment of buildings are discussed. The final approach used relations between strong ground motion parameters and Modified Mercalli Intensity in conjunction with two methods to estimate peak parameters for a 6.6 m{sub s} (7.5 M{sub S}) earthquake. As with other techniques, adjustment of peak acceleration estimates are discussed. Each method

High-resolution backprojection at regional distance: Application to the Haiti M7.0 earthquake and comparisons with finite source studies

Science.gov (United States)

Meng, L.; Ampuero, J.-P.; Sladen, A.; Rendon, H.

2012-04-01

A catastrophic Mw7 earthquake ruptured on 12 January 2010 on a complex fault system near Port-au-Prince, Haiti. Offshore rupture is suggested by aftershock locations and marine geophysics studies, but its extent remains difficult to define using geodetic and teleseismic observations. Here we perform the multitaper multiple signal classification (MUSIC) analysis, a high-resolution array technique, at regional distance with recordings from the Venezuela National Seismic Network to resolve high-frequency (about 0.4 Hz) aspects of the earthquake process. Our results indicate westward rupture with two subevents, roughly 35 km apart. In comparison, a lower-frequency finite source inversion with fault geometry based on new geologic and aftershock data shows two slip patches with centroids 21 km apart. Apparent source time functions from USArray further constrain the intersubevent time delay, implying a rupture speed of 3.3 km/s. The tips of the slip zones coincide with subevents imaged by backprojections. The different subevent locations found by backprojection and source inversion suggest spatial complementarity between high- and low-frequency source radiation consistent with high-frequency radiation originating from rupture arrest phases at the edges of main slip areas. The centroid moment tensor (CMT) solution and a geodetic-only inversion have similar moment, indicating most of the moment released is captured by geodetic observations and no additional rupture is required beyond where it is imaged in our preferred model. Our results demonstrate the contribution of backprojections of regional seismic array data for earthquakes down to M ≈ 7, especially when incomplete coverage of seismic and geodetic data implies large uncertainties in source inversions.

Source inversion of the 1570 Ferrara earthquake and definitive diversion of the Po River (Italy)

Science.gov (United States)

Sirovich, L.; Pettenati, F.

2015-08-01

An 11-parameter, kinematic-function (KF) model was used to retrieve the approximate geometrical and kinematic characteristics of the fault source of the 1570 Mw 5.8 Ferrara earthquake in the Po Plain, including the double-couple orientation (strike angle 127 ± 16°, dip 28 ± 7°, and rake 77 ± 16°). These results are compatible with either the outermost thrust fronts of the northern Apennines, which are buried beneath the Po Plain's alluvial deposits, or the blind crustal-scale thrust. The 1570 event developed to the ENE of the two main shocks on 20 May 2012 (M 6.1) and 29 May 2012 (M 5.9). The three earthquakes had similar kinematics and are found 20-30 km from each other en echelon in the buried chain. Geomorphological and historical evidence exist which suggest the following: (i) the long-lasting uplift of the buried Apenninic front shifted the central part of the course of the Po River approximately 20 km northward in historical times and (ii) the 1570 earthquake marked the definitive diversion of the final part of the Po River away from Ferrara and the closure of the Po delta 40 km south of its present position.

Radon, gas geochemistry, groundwater, and earthquakes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

King, Chi-Yu [Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Development Corp., Tono Geoscience Center, Toki, Gifu (Japan)

1998-12-31

Radon monitoring in groundwater, soil air, and atmosphere has been continued in many seismic areas of the world for earthquake-prediction and active-fault studies. Some recent measurements of radon and other geochemical and hydrological parameters have been made for sufficiently long periods, with reliable instruments, and together with measurements of meteorological variables and solid-earth tides. The resultant data are useful in better distinguishing earthquake-related changes from various background noises. Some measurements have been carried out in areas where other geophysical measurements are being made also. Comparative studies of various kinds of geophysical data are helpful in ascertaining the reality of the earthquake-related and fault-related anomalies and in understanding the underlying mechanisms. Spatial anomalies of radon and other terrestrial gasses have been observed for many active faults. Such observations indicate that gas concentrations are very much site dependent, particularly on fault zones where terrestrial fluids may move vertically. Temporal anomalies have been reliably observed before and after some recent earthquakes, including the 1995 Kobe earthquake, and the general pattern of anomaly occurrence remains the same as observed before: They are recorded at only relatively few sensitive sites, which can be at much larger distances than expected from existing earthquake-source models. The sensitivity of a sensitive site is also found to be changeable with time. These results clearly show the inadequacy of the existing dilatancy-fluid diffusion and elastic-dislocation models for earthquake sources to explain earthquake-related geochemical and geophysical changes recorded at large distances. (J.P.N.)

Analysis of the Source and Ground Motions from the 2017 M8.2 Tehuantepec and M7.1 Puebla Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Melgar, D.; Sahakian, V. J.; Perez-Campos, X.; Quintanar, L.; Ramirez-Guzman, L.; Spica, Z.; Espindola, V. H.; Ruiz-Angulo, A.; Cabral-Cano, E.; Baltay, A.; Geng, J.

2017-12-01

The September 2017 Tehuantepec and Puebla earthquakes were intra-slab earthquakes that together caused significant damage in broad regions of Mexico, including the states of Oaxaca, Chiapas, Morelos, Puebla, Mexico, and Mexico City. Ground motions in Mexico City have approximately the same angle of incidence from both earthquakes and potentially sample similar paths close to the city. We examine site effects and source terms by analysis of residuals between Ground-Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) and observed ground motions for both of these events at stations from the Servicio Sismólogico Nacional, Instituto de Ingeniería, and the Instituto de Geofísica Red del Valle de Mexico networks. GMPEs are a basis for seismic design, but also provide median ground motion values to act as a basis for comparison of individual earthquakes and site responses. First, we invert for finite-fault slip inversions for Tehuantepec with high-rate GPS, static GPS, tide gauge and DART buoy data, and for Puebla with high-rate GPS and strong motion data. Using the distance from the stations with ground motion observations to the derived slip models, we use the GMPEs of Garcia et al. (2005), Zhao et al. (2006), and Abrahamson, Silva and Kamai (2014), to compute predicted values of peak ground acceleration and velocity (PGA and PGV) and response spectral accelerations (SA). Residuals between observed and predicted ground motion parameters are then computed for each recording, and are decomposed into event and site components using a mixed effects regression. We analyze these residuals as an adjustment away from median ground motions in the region to glean information about the earthquake source properties, as well as local site response in and outside of the Mexico City basin. The event and site terms are then compared with available values of stress drop for the two earthquakes, and Vs30 values for the sites, respectively. This analysis is useful in determining which GMPE is most

OMG Earthquake! Can Twitter improve earthquake response?

Science.gov (United States)

Earle, P. S.; Guy, M.; Ostrum, C.; Horvath, S.; Buckmaster, R. A.

2009-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public, text messages, can augment its earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. The goal is to gather near real-time, earthquake-related messages (tweets) and provide geo-located earthquake detections and rough maps of the corresponding felt areas. Twitter and other social Internet technologies are providing the general public with anecdotal earthquake hazard information before scientific information has been published from authoritative sources. People local to an event often publish information within seconds via these technologies. In contrast, depending on the location of the earthquake, scientific alerts take between 2 to 20 minutes. Examining the tweets following the March 30, 2009, M4.3 Morgan Hill earthquake shows it is possible (in some cases) to rapidly detect and map the felt area of an earthquake using Twitter responses. Within a minute of the earthquake, the frequency of “earthquake” tweets rose above the background level of less than 1 per hour to about 150 per minute. Using the tweets submitted in the first minute, a rough map of the felt area can be obtained by plotting the tweet locations. Mapping the tweets from the first six minutes shows observations extending from Monterey to Sacramento, similar to the perceived shaking region mapped by the USGS “Did You Feel It” system. The tweets submitted after the earthquake also provided (very) short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking. Accurately assessing the potential and robustness of a Twitter-based system is difficult because only tweets spanning the previous seven days can be searched, making a historical study impossible. We have, however, been archiving tweets for several months, and it is clear that significant limitations do exist. The main drawback is the lack of quantitative information

Seismogenic Structure Beneath Décollement Inferred from 2009/11/5 ML 6.2 Mingjian Earthquake in Central Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Che-Min Lin

2014-01-01

Full Text Available One decade after the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, central Taiwan experienced more strong ground shaking [Central Weather Bureau (CWB, intensity VII] induced by a ML 6.2 earthquake on 5th November 2009. This earthquake occurred in the Mingjian Township of Nantou County, only 12 km southwest of the Chi-Chi earthquake epicenter. The broadband microearthquake monitoring network operated by the National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering (NCREE observed numerous aftershocks in the five days following the mainshock. The relocated aftershocks and the mainshock focal mechanism indicated a NE-SW striking fault dipping 60¢X toward the northwest. This fault plane is inside the pre-Miocene basement and the rupture extends from the lower crust to 10 km depth just beneath the basal décollement of the thin-skinned model that is generally used to explain the regional tectonics in Taiwan. The fault plane is vertically symmetrical with the Chelungpu fault by the basal décollement. The NW-SE compressive stress of plate collision in Taiwan, as well as the deep tectonic background, resulted in the seismogenic structure of the Mingjian earthquake at this location.

Laboratory generated M -6 earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

McLaskey, Gregory C.; Kilgore, Brian D.; Lockner, David A.; Beeler, Nicholas M.

2014-01-01

We consider whether mm-scale earthquake-like seismic events generated in laboratory experiments are consistent with our understanding of the physics of larger earthquakes. This work focuses on a population of 48 very small shocks that are foreshocks and aftershocks of stick–slip events occurring on a 2.0 m by 0.4 m simulated strike-slip fault cut through a large granite sample. Unlike the larger stick–slip events that rupture the entirety of the simulated fault, the small foreshocks and aftershocks are contained events whose properties are controlled by the rigidity of the surrounding granite blocks rather than characteristics of the experimental apparatus. The large size of the experimental apparatus, high fidelity sensors, rigorous treatment of wave propagation effects, and in situ system calibration separates this study from traditional acoustic emission analyses and allows these sources to be studied with as much rigor as larger natural earthquakes. The tiny events have short (3–6 μs) rise times and are well modeled by simple double couple focal mechanisms that are consistent with left-lateral slip occurring on a mm-scale patch of the precut fault surface. The repeatability of the experiments indicates that they are the result of frictional processes on the simulated fault surface rather than grain crushing or fracture of fresh rock. Our waveform analysis shows no significant differences (other than size) between the M -7 to M -5.5 earthquakes reported here and larger natural earthquakes. Their source characteristics such as stress drop (1–10 MPa) appear to be entirely consistent with earthquake scaling laws derived for larger earthquakes.

The 1448 earthquake in Catalonia. Some effects and local reactions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Salicrù i Lluch

1995-06-01

Full Text Available The May 1448 earthquake. the last destructive one that took place in Catalonia in the Middle Ages, was known chiefly from several chronistic and narrative medieval sources. To these sources I add new previously unknown data proceeding Eroin documentary archival sources in Barcelona, and other data that up to now have been wrongly considered as a consequence of the weak quake recorded in September 1450. They allow us to locate the epicentre in the Vall&s Oriental, around Llinars, to deny the existence of two almost simultaneous earthquakes, and to extend the range of the earthquake damage. to pinpoint them better and to suppose that the effects of the 1448 earthquake were more important than we had previously thought. All this information leads to several reflections on compulsory critical analysis of historical seismic documentary sources in order for them to be useful to historical seismicity. Finally. by the opposition of the three lands of documentary sources that refer to the damage caused by the earthquake in the township of Mataro. I show how natural catastrophes could be manipulated, and the skill of a society in exploiting them to deal with an adverse situation.

Navigating Earthquake Physics with High-Resolution Array Back-Projection

Science.gov (United States)

Meng, Lingsen

Understanding earthquake source dynamics is a fundamental goal of geophysics. Progress toward this goal has been slow due to the gap between state-of-art earthquake simulations and the limited source imaging techniques based on conventional low-frequency finite fault inversions. Seismic array processing is an alternative source imaging technique that employs the higher frequency content of the earthquakes and provides finer detail of the source process with few prior assumptions. While the back-projection provides key observations of previous large earthquakes, the standard beamforming back-projection suffers from low resolution and severe artifacts. This thesis introduces the MUSIC technique, a high-resolution array processing method that aims to narrow the gap between the seismic observations and earthquake simulations. The MUSIC is a high-resolution method taking advantage of the higher order signal statistics. The method has not been widely used in seismology yet because of the nonstationary and incoherent nature of the seismic signal. We adapt MUSIC to transient seismic signal by incorporating the Multitaper cross-spectrum estimates. We also adopt a "reference window" strategy that mitigates the "swimming artifact," a systematic drift effect in back projection. The improved MUSIC back projections allow the imaging of recent large earthquakes in finer details which give rise to new perspectives on dynamic simulations. In the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, we observe frequency-dependent rupture behaviors which relate to the material variation along the dip of the subduction interface. In the 2012 off-Sumatra earthquake, we image the complicated ruptures involving orthogonal fault system and an usual branching direction. This result along with our complementary dynamic simulations probes the pressure-insensitive strength of the deep oceanic lithosphere. In another example, back projection is applied to the 2010 M7 Haiti earthquake recorded at regional distance. The

Source Localization by Entropic Inference and Backward Renormalization Group Priors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nestor Caticha

2015-04-01

Full Text Available A systematic method of transferring information from coarser to finer resolution based on renormalization group (RG transformations is introduced. It permits building informative priors in finer scales from posteriors in coarser scales since, under some conditions, RG transformations in the space of hyperparameters can be inverted. These priors are updated using renormalized data into posteriors by Maximum Entropy. The resulting inference method, backward RG (BRG priors, is tested by doing simulations of a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI experiment. Its results are compared with a Bayesian approach working in the finest available resolution. Using BRG priors sources can be partially identified even when signal to noise ratio levels are up to ~ -25dB improving vastly on the single step Bayesian approach. For low levels of noise the BRG prior is not an improvement over the single scale Bayesian method. Analysis of the histograms of hyperparameters can show how to distinguish if the method is failing, due to very high levels of noise, or if the identification of the sources is, at least partially possible.

Satellite detection of carbon monoxide emission prior to the Gujarat earthquake of 26 January 2001

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Singh, Ramesh P., E-mail: rsingh@chapman.edu [Department of Physics, Computational Science and Engineering, Schmid College of Science, Chapman University, One University Drive, Orange CA 92866 (United States); Senthil Kumar, J.; Zlotnicki, Jacques [Observatoire de Physique du Globe de Clermont-Ferrand, OPGC-CNRS, Campus des Cuzeaux, 24, av. des Landais, 63177 Aubiere Cedex (France); Kafatos, Menas [Department of Physics, Computational Science and Engineering, Schmid College of Science, Chapman University, One University Drive, Orange CA 92866 (United States)

2010-04-15

NOAA AVHRR images have clearly shown anomalous changes in land surface temperature associated with earthquakes in the past two decades. Soon after the Gujarat earthquake of January 26, 2001, an anomalous increase in land surface temperature was inferred from MODIS satellite data a few days prior to the main earthquake event. The cause of such an anomalous change in surface temperature prior to the earthquake is attributed to many probable phenomena, but no definite cause has been identified. In the present study, changes of a complementary nature were found of land surface temperature associated with the emission of CO from the epicentral region. The observed changes on land and atmosphere associated with the Gujarat earthquake of 26 January, 2001, show the existence of strong coupling between land, atmosphere and ionosphere.

Denitrification and inference of nitrogen sources in the karstic Floridan Aquifer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. B. Heffernan

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Aquifer denitrification is among the most poorly constrained fluxes in global and regional nitrogen budgets. The few direct measurements of denitrification in groundwaters provide limited information about its spatial and temporal variability, particularly at the scale of whole aquifers. Uncertainty in estimates of denitrification may also lead to underestimates of its effect on isotopic signatures of inorganic N, and thereby confound the inference of N source from these data. In this study, our objectives are to quantify the magnitude and variability of denitrification in the Upper Floridan Aquifer (UFA and evaluate its effect on N isotopic signatures at the regional scale. Using dual noble gas tracers (Ne, Ar to generate physical predictions of N₂ gas concentrations for 112 observations from 61 UFA springs, we show that excess (i.e. denitrification-derived N₂ is highly variable in space and inversely correlated with dissolved oxygen (O₂. Negative relationships between O₂ and δ¹⁵N_NO3 across a larger dataset of 113 springs, well-constrained isotopic fractionation coefficients, and strong ¹⁵N:¹⁸O covariation further support inferences of denitrification in this uniquely organic-matter-poor system. Despite relatively low average rates, denitrification accounted for 32 % of estimated aquifer N inputs across all sampled UFA springs. Back-calculations of source δ¹⁵N_NO3 based on denitrification progression suggest that isotopically-enriched nitrate (NO₃^– in many springs of the UFA reflects groundwater denitrification rather than urban- or animal-derived inputs.

DeepInfer: open-source deep learning deployment toolkit for image-guided therapy

Science.gov (United States)

Mehrtash, Alireza; Pesteie, Mehran; Hetherington, Jorden; Behringer, Peter A.; Kapur, Tina; Wells, William M.; Rohling, Robert; Fedorov, Andriy; Abolmaesumi, Purang

2017-03-01

Deep learning models have outperformed some of the previous state-of-the-art approaches in medical image analysis. Instead of using hand-engineered features, deep models attempt to automatically extract hierarchical representations at multiple levels of abstraction from the data. Therefore, deep models are usually considered to be more flexible and robust solutions for image analysis problems compared to conventional computer vision models. They have demonstrated significant improvements in computer-aided diagnosis and automatic medical image analysis applied to such tasks as image segmentation, classification and registration. However, deploying deep learning models often has a steep learning curve and requires detailed knowledge of various software packages. Thus, many deep models have not been integrated into the clinical research work ows causing a gap between the state-of-the-art machine learning in medical applications and evaluation in clinical research procedures. In this paper, we propose "DeepInfer" - an open-source toolkit for developing and deploying deep learning models within the 3D Slicer medical image analysis platform. Utilizing a repository of task-specific models, DeepInfer allows clinical researchers and biomedical engineers to deploy a trained model selected from the public registry, and apply it to new data without the need for software development or configuration. As two practical use cases, we demonstrate the application of DeepInfer in prostate segmentation for targeted MRI-guided biopsy and identification of the target plane in 3D ultrasound for spinal injections.

Source parameters of the 2016 Menyuan earthquake in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau determined from regional seismic waveforms and InSAR measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yunhua; Zhang, Guohong; Zhang, Yingfeng; Shan, Xinjian

2018-06-01

On January 21st, 2016, a Ms 6.4 earthquake hit Menyuan County, Qinghai province, China. The nearest known fault is the Leng Long Ling (LLL) fault which is located approximately 7 km north of the epicenter. This fault has mainly shown sinistral strike-slip movement since the late Quaternary Period. However, the focal mechanism indicates that it is a thrust earthquake, which is different from the well-known strike-slip feature of the LLL fault. In this study, we determined the focal mechanism and primary nodal plane through multi-step inversions in the frequency and time domain by using the broadband regional seismic waveforms recorded by the China Digital Seismic Network (CDSN). Our results show that the rupture duration was short, within 0-2 s after the earthquake, and the rupture expanded upwards along the fault plane. Based on these fault parameters, we then solve for variable slip distribution on the fault plane using the InSAR data. We applied a three-segment fault model to simulate the arc-shaped structure of the northern LLL fault, and obtained a detailed slip distribution on the fault plane. The inversion results show that the maximum slip is 0.43 m, and the average slip angle is 78.8°, with a magnitude of Mw 6.0 and a focal depth of 9.38 km. With the geological structure and the inversion results taken into consideration, it can be suggested that this earthquake was caused by the arc-shaped secondary fault located at the north side of the LLL fault. The secondary fault, together with the LLL fault, forms a normal flower structure. The main LLL fault extends almost vertically into the base rock and the rocks between the two faults form a bulging fault block. Therefore, we infer that this earthquake is the manifestation of a neotectonics movement, in which the bulging fault block is lifted further up under the compresso-shear action caused by the Tibetan Plateau pushing towards the northwest direction.

Earthquake source model using strong motion displacement

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The strong motion displacement records available during an earthquake can be treated as the response of the earth as the a structural system to unknown forces acting at unknown locations. Thus, if the part of the earth participating in ground motion is modelled as a known finite elastic medium, one can attempt to model the ...

Large earthquake rupture process variations on the Middle America megathrust

Science.gov (United States)

Ye, Lingling; Lay, Thorne; Kanamori, Hiroo

2013-11-01

The megathrust fault between the underthrusting Cocos plate and overriding Caribbean plate recently experienced three large ruptures: the August 27, 2012 (Mw 7.3) El Salvador; September 5, 2012 (Mw 7.6) Costa Rica; and November 7, 2012 (Mw 7.4) Guatemala earthquakes. All three events involve shallow-dipping thrust faulting on the plate boundary, but they had variable rupture processes. The El Salvador earthquake ruptured from about 4 to 20 km depth, with a relatively large centroid time of ˜19 s, low seismic moment-scaled energy release, and a depleted teleseismic short-period source spectrum similar to that of the September 2, 1992 (Mw 7.6) Nicaragua tsunami earthquake that ruptured the adjacent shallow portion of the plate boundary. The Costa Rica and Guatemala earthquakes had large slip in the depth range 15 to 30 km, and more typical teleseismic source spectra. Regional seismic recordings have higher short-period energy levels for the Costa Rica event relative to the El Salvador event, consistent with the teleseismic observations. A broadband regional waveform template correlation analysis is applied to categorize the focal mechanisms for larger aftershocks of the three events. Modeling of regional wave spectral ratios for clustered events with similar mechanisms indicates that interplate thrust events have corner frequencies, normalized by a reference model, that increase down-dip from anomalously low values near the Middle America trench. Relatively high corner frequencies are found for thrust events near Costa Rica; thus, variations along strike of the trench may also be important. Geodetic observations indicate trench-parallel motion of a forearc sliver extending from Costa Rica to Guatemala, and low seismic coupling on the megathrust has been inferred from a lack of boundary-perpendicular strain accumulation. The slip distributions and seismic radiation from the large regional thrust events indicate relatively strong seismic coupling near Nicoya, Costa

Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems for semi-automatic discrimination between seismic events: a study in Tehran region

Science.gov (United States)

Vasheghani Farahani, Jamileh; Zare, Mehdi; Lucas, Caro

2012-04-01

Thisarticle presents an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for classification of low magnitude seismic events reported in Iran by the network of Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization (TDMMO). ANFIS classifiers were used to detect seismic events using six inputs that defined the seismic events. Neuro-fuzzy coding was applied using the six extracted features as ANFIS inputs. Two types of events were defined: weak earthquakes and mining blasts. The data comprised 748 events (6289 signals) ranging from magnitude 1.1 to 4.6 recorded at 13 seismic stations between 2004 and 2009. We surveyed that there are almost 223 earthquakes with M ≤ 2.2 included in this database. Data sets from the south, east, and southeast of the city of Tehran were used to evaluate the best short period seismic discriminants, and features as inputs such as origin time of event, distance (source to station), latitude of epicenter, longitude of epicenter, magnitude, and spectral analysis (fc of the Pg wave) were used, increasing the rate of correct classification and decreasing the confusion rate between weak earthquakes and quarry blasts. The performance of the ANFIS model was evaluated for training and classification accuracy. The results confirmed that the proposed ANFIS model has good potential for determining seismic events.

Retrospective analysis of the Spitak earthquake

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. K. Tovmassian

1995-06-01

Full Text Available Based on the retrospective analysis of numerous data and studies of the Spitak earthquake the present work at- tempts to shed light on different aspects of that catastrophic seismic event which occurred in Northern Arme- nia on December 7, 1988. The authors follow a chronological order of presentation, namely: changes in geo- sphere, atmosphere, biosphere during the preparation of the Spitak earthquake, foreshocks, main shock, after- shocks, focal mechanisms, historical seismicity; seismotectonic position of the source, strong motion records, site effects; the macroseismic effect, collapse of buildings and structures; rescue activities; earthquake conse- quences; and the lessons of the Spitak earthquake.

Detailed Mapping of Historical and Preinstrumental Earthquake Ruptures in Central Asia Using Multi-Scale, Multi-Platform Photogrammetry

Science.gov (United States)

Elliott, A. J.; Walker, R. T.; Parsons, B.; Ren, Z.; Ainscoe, E. A.; Abdrakhmatov, K.; Mackenzie, D.; Arrowsmith, R.; Gruetzner, C.

2016-12-01

In regions of the planet with long historical records, known past seismic events can be attributed to specific fault sources through the identification and measurement of single-event scarps in high-resolution imagery and topography. The level of detail captured by modern remote sensing is now sufficient to map and measure complete earthquake ruptures that were originally only sparsely mapped or overlooked entirely. We can thus extend the record of mapped earthquake surface ruptures into the preinstrumental period and capture the wealth of information preserved in the numerous historical earthquake ruptures throughout regions like Central Asia. We investigate two major late 19th and early 20th century earthquakes that are well located macroseismically but whose fault sources had proved enigmatic in the absence of detailed imagery and topography. We use high-resolution topographic models derived from photogrammetry of satellite, low-altitude, and ground-based optical imagery to map and measure the coseismic scarps of the 1889 M8.3 Chilik, Kazakhstan and 1932 M7.6 Changma, China earthquakes. Measurement of the scarps on the combined imagery and topography reveals the extent and slip distribution of coseismic rupture in each of these events, showing both earthquakes involved multiple faults with variable kinematics. We use a 1-m elevation model of the Changma fault derived from Pleiades satellite imagery to map the changing kinematics of the 1932 rupture along strike. For the 1889 Chilik earthquake we use 1.5-m SPOT-6 satellite imagery to produce a regional elevation model of the fault ruptures, from which we identify three distinct, intersecting fault systems that each have >20 km of fresh, single-event scarps. Along sections of each of these faults we construct high resolution (330 points per sq m) elevation models using quadcopter- and helikite-mounted cameras. From the detailed topography we measure single-event oblique offsets of 6-10 m, consistent with the large

Sediment gravity flows triggered by remotely generated earthquake waves

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, H. Paul; Gomberg, Joan S.; Hautala, Susan L.; Salmi, Marie S.

2017-06-01

Recent great earthquakes and tsunamis around the world have heightened awareness of the inevitability of similar events occurring within the Cascadia Subduction Zone of the Pacific Northwest. We analyzed seafloor temperature, pressure, and seismic signals, and video stills of sediment-enveloped instruments recorded during the 2011-2015 Cascadia Initiative experiment, and seafloor morphology. Our results led us to suggest that thick accretionary prism sediments amplified and extended seismic wave durations from the 11 April 2012 Mw8.6 Indian Ocean earthquake, located more than 13,500 km away. These waves triggered a sequence of small slope failures on the Cascadia margin that led to sediment gravity flows culminating in turbidity currents. Previous studies have related the triggering of sediment-laden gravity flows and turbidite deposition to local earthquakes, but this is the first study in which the originating seismic event is extremely distant (> 10,000 km). The possibility of remotely triggered slope failures that generate sediment-laden gravity flows should be considered in inferences of recurrence intervals of past great Cascadia earthquakes from turbidite sequences. Future similar studies may provide new understanding of submarine slope failures and turbidity currents and the hazards they pose to seafloor infrastructure and tsunami generation in regions both with and without local earthquakes.

Characterization of the Virginia earthquake effects and source parameters from website traffic analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Bossu, R.; Lefebvre, S.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Roussel, F.

2012-12-01

This paper presents an after the fact study of the Virginia earthquake of 2011 August 23 using only the traffic observed on the EMSC website within minutes of its occurrence. Although the EMSC real time information services remain poorly identified in the US, a traffic surge was observed immediately after the earthquake's occurrence. Such surges, known as flashcrowd and commonly observed on our website after felt events within the Euro-Med region are caused by eyewitnesses looking for information about the shaking they have just felt. EMSC developed an approach named flashsourcing to map the felt area, and in some circumstances, the regions affected by severe damage or network disruption. The felt area is mapped simply by locating the Internet Protocol (IP) addresses of the visitors to the website during these surges while the existence of network disruption is detected by the instantaneous loss at the time of earthquake's occurrence of existing Internet sessions originating from the impacted area. For the Virginia earthquake, which was felt at large distances, the effects of the waves propagation are clearly observed. We show that the visits to our website are triggered by the P waves arrival: the first visitors from a given locality reach our website 90s after their location was shaken by the P waves. From a processing point of view, eyewitnesses can then be considered as ground motion detectors. By doing so, the epicentral location is determined through a simple dedicated location algorithm within 2 min of the earthquake's occurrence and 30 km accuracy. The magnitude can be estimated in similar time frame by using existing empirical relationships between the surface of the felt area and the magnitude. Concerning the effects of the earthquake, we check whether one can discriminate localities affected by strong shaking from web traffic analysis. This is actually the case. Localities affected by strong level of shaking exhibit higher ratio of visitors to the number

Large earthquake rates from geologic, geodetic, and seismological perspectives

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, D. D.

2017-12-01

Earthquake rate and recurrence information comes primarily from geology, geodesy, and seismology. Geology gives the longest temporal perspective, but it reveals only surface deformation, relatable to earthquakes only with many assumptions. Geodesy is also limited to surface observations, but it detects evidence of the processes leading to earthquakes, again subject to important assumptions. Seismology reveals actual earthquakes, but its history is too short to capture important properties of very large ones. Unfortunately, the ranges of these observation types barely overlap, so that integrating them into a consistent picture adequate to infer future prospects requires a great deal of trust. Perhaps the most important boundary is the temporal one at the beginning of the instrumental seismic era, about a century ago. We have virtually no seismological or geodetic information on large earthquakes before then, and little geological information after. Virtually all-modern forecasts of large earthquakes assume some form of equivalence between tectonic- and seismic moment rates as functions of location, time, and magnitude threshold. That assumption links geology, geodesy, and seismology, but it invokes a host of other assumptions and incurs very significant uncertainties. Questions include temporal behavior of seismic and tectonic moment rates; shape of the earthquake magnitude distribution; upper magnitude limit; scaling between rupture length, width, and displacement; depth dependence of stress coupling; value of crustal rigidity; and relation between faults at depth and their surface fault traces, to name just a few. In this report I'll estimate the quantitative implications for estimating large earthquake rate. Global studies like the GEAR1 project suggest that surface deformation from geology and geodesy best show the geography of very large, rare earthquakes in the long term, while seismological observations of small earthquakes best forecasts moderate earthquakes

Mexican Earthquakes and Tsunamis Catalog Reviewed

Science.gov (United States)

Ramirez-Herrera, M. T.; Castillo-Aja, R.

2015-12-01

Today the availability of information on the internet makes online catalogs very easy to access by both scholars and the public in general. The catalog in the "Significant Earthquake Database", managed by the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI formerly NCDC), NOAA, allows access by deploying tabular and cartographic data related to earthquakes and tsunamis contained in the database. The NCEI catalog is the product of compiling previously existing catalogs, historical sources, newspapers, and scientific articles. Because NCEI catalog has a global coverage the information is not homogeneous. Existence of historical information depends on the presence of people in places where the disaster occurred, and that the permanence of the description is preserved in documents and oral tradition. In the case of instrumental data, their availability depends on the distribution and quality of seismic stations. Therefore, the availability of information for the first half of 20th century can be improved by careful analysis of the available information and by searching and resolving inconsistencies. This study shows the advances we made in upgrading and refining data for the earthquake and tsunami catalog of Mexico since 1500 CE until today, presented in the format of table and map. Data analysis allowed us to identify the following sources of error in the location of the epicenters in existing catalogs: • Incorrect coordinate entry • Place name erroneous or mistaken • Too general data that makes difficult to locate the epicenter, mainly for older earthquakes • Inconsistency of earthquakes and the tsunami occurrence: earthquake's epicenter located too far inland reported as tsunamigenic. The process of completing the catalogs directly depends on the availability of information; as new archives are opened for inspection, there are more opportunities to complete the history of large earthquakes and tsunamis in Mexico. Here, we also present new earthquake and

Earthquake risk assessment of Alexandria, Egypt

Science.gov (United States)

Badawy, Ahmed; Gaber, Hanan; Ibrahim, Hamza

2015-01-01

Throughout historical and recent times, Alexandria has suffered great damage due to earthquakes from both near- and far-field sources. Sometimes, the sources of such damages are not well known. During the twentieth century, the city was shaken by several earthquakes generated from inland dislocations (e.g., 29 Apr. 1974, 12 Oct. 1992, and 28 Dec. 1999) and the African continental margin (e.g., 12 Sept. 1955 and 28 May 1998). Therefore, this study estimates the earthquake ground shaking and the consequent impacts in Alexandria on the basis of two earthquake scenarios. The simulation results show that Alexandria affected by both earthquakes scenarios relatively in the same manner despite the number of casualties during the first scenario (inland dislocation) is twice larger than the second one (African continental margin). An expected percentage of 2.27 from Alexandria's total constructions (12.9 millions, 2006 Census) will be affected, 0.19 % injuries and 0.01 % deaths of the total population (4.1 millions, 2006 Census) estimated by running the first scenario. The earthquake risk profile reveals that three districts (Al-Montazah, Al-Amriya, and Shark) lie in high seismic risks, two districts (Gharb and Wasat) are in moderate, and two districts (Al-Gomrok and Burg El-Arab) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Al-Montazah is the highest vulnerable district whereas 73 % of expected damages were reported there. The undertaken analysis shows that the Alexandria urban area faces high risk. Informal areas and deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated earthquake risks (buildings damages) are concentrated at the most densely populated (Al-Montazah, Al-Amriya, and Shark) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts.

Tidal Sensitivity of Declustered Low Frequency Earthquake Families and Inferred Creep Episodes on the San Andreas Fault

Science.gov (United States)

Babb, A.; Thomas, A.; Bletery, Q.

2017-12-01

Low frequency earthquakes (LFEs) are detected at depths of 16-30 km on a 150 km section of the San Andreas Fault centered at Parkfield, CA. The LFEs are divided into 88 families based on waveform similarity. Each family is thought to represent a brittle asperity on the fault surface that repeatedly slips during aseismic slip of the surrounding fault. LFE occurrence is irregular which allows families to be divided into continuous and episodic. In continuous families a burst of a few LFE events recurs every few days while episodic families experience essentially quiescent periods often lasting months followed by bursts of hundreds of events over a few days. The occurrence of LFEs has also been shown to be sensitive to extremely small ( 1kPa) tidal stress perturbations. However, the clustered nature of LFE occurrence could potentially bias estimates of tidal sensitivity. Here we re-evaluate the tidal sensitivity of LFE families on the deep San Andreas using a declustered catalog. In this catalog LFE bursts are isolated based on the recurrence intervals between individual LFE events for each family. Preliminary analysis suggests that declustered LFE families are still highly sensitive to tidal stress perturbations, primarily right-lateral shear stress (RLSS) and to a lesser extent fault normal stress (FNS). We also find inferred creep episodes initiate preferentially during times of positive RLSS.

How fault geometry controls earthquake magnitude

Science.gov (United States)

Bletery, Q.; Thomas, A.; Karlstrom, L.; Rempel, A. W.; Sladen, A.; De Barros, L.

2016-12-01

Recent large megathrust earthquakes, such as the Mw9.3 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake in 2004 and the Mw9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in 2011, astonished the scientific community. The first event occurred in a relatively low-convergence-rate subduction zone where events of its size were unexpected. The second event involved 60 m of shallow slip in a region thought to be aseismicaly creeping and hence incapable of hosting very large magnitude earthquakes. These earthquakes highlight gaps in our understanding of mega-earthquake rupture processes and the factors controlling their global distribution. Here we show that gradients in dip angle exert a primary control on mega-earthquake occurrence. We calculate the curvature along the major subduction zones of the world and show that past mega-earthquakes occurred on flat (low-curvature) interfaces. A simplified analytic model demonstrates that shear strength heterogeneity increases with curvature. Stress loading on flat megathrusts is more homogeneous and hence more likely to be released simultaneously over large areas than on highly-curved faults. Therefore, the absence of asperities on large faults might counter-intuitively be a source of higher hazard.

Comparison of aftershock sequences between 1975 Haicheng earthquake and 1976 Tangshan earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, B.

2017-12-01

The 1975 ML 7.3 Haicheng earthquake and the 1976 ML 7.8 Tangshan earthquake occurred in the same tectonic unit. There are significant differences in spatial-temporal distribution, number of aftershocks and time duration for the aftershock sequence followed by these two main shocks. As we all know, aftershocks could be triggered by the regional seismicity change derived from the main shock, which was caused by the Coulomb stress perturbation. Based on the rate- and state- dependent friction law, we quantitative estimated the possible aftershock time duration with a combination of seismicity data, and compared the results from different approaches. The results indicate that, aftershock time durations from the Tangshan main shock is several times of that form the Haicheng main shock. This can be explained by the significant relationship between aftershock time duration and earthquake nucleation history, normal stressand shear stress loading rateon the fault. In fact the obvious difference of earthquake nucleation history from these two main shocks is the foreshocks. 1975 Haicheng earthquake has clear and long foreshocks, while 1976 Tangshan earthquake did not have clear foreshocks. In that case, abundant foreshocks may mean a long and active nucleation process that may have changed (weakened) the rocks in the source regions, so they should have a shorter aftershock sequences for the reason that stress in weak rocks decay faster.

Constraining the Source of the M w 8.1 Chiapas, Mexico Earthquake of 8 September 2017 Using Teleseismic and Tsunami Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Ishibe, Takeo; Harada, Tomoya

2018-04-01

The September 2017 Chiapas (Mexico) normal-faulting intraplate earthquake (M w 8.1) occurred within the Tehuantepec seismic gap offshore Mexico. We constrained the finite-fault slip model of this great earthquake using teleseismic and tsunami observations. First, teleseismic body-wave inversions were conducted for both steep (NP-1) and low-angle (NP-2) nodal planes for rupture velocities (V r) of 1.5-4.0 km/s. Teleseismic inversion guided us to NP-1 as the actual fault plane, but was not conclusive about the best V r. Tsunami simulations also confirmed that NP-1 is favored over NP-2 and guided the V r = 2.5 km/s as the best source model. Our model has a maximum and average slips of 13.1 and 3.7 m, respectively, over a 130 km × 80 km fault plane. Coulomb stress transfer analysis revealed that the probability for the occurrence of a future large thrust interplate earthquake at offshore of the Tehuantepec seismic gap had been increased following the 2017 Chiapas normal-faulting intraplate earthquake.

Seismological investigation of earthquakes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herrmann, R.B.; Nguyen, B.

1993-08-01

Earthquake activity in the New Madrid Seismic Zone had been monitored by regional seismic networks since 1975. During this time period, over 3,700 earthquakes have been located within the region bounded by latitudes 35 degrees--39 degrees N and longitudes 87 degrees--92 degrees W. Most of these earthquakes occur within a 1.5 degrees x 2 degrees zone centered on the Missouri Bootheel. Source parameters of larger earthquakes in the zone and in eastern North America are determined using surface-wave spectral amplitudes and broadband waveforms for the purpose of determining the focal mechanism, source depth and seismic moment. Waveform modeling of broadband data is shown to be a powerful tool in defining these source parameters when used complementary with regional seismic network data, and in addition, in verifying the correctness of previously published focal mechanism solutions

Improving back projection imaging with a novel physics-based aftershock calibration approach: A case study of the 2015 Gorkha earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Meng, Lingsen; Zhang, Ailin; Yagi, Yuji

2016-01-01

The 2015 Mw 7.8 Nepal-Gorkha earthquake with casualties of over 9000 people was the most devastating disaster to strike Nepal since the 1934 Nepal-Bihar earthquake. Its rupture process was imaged by teleseismic back projections (BP) of seismograms recorded by three, large regional networks in Australia, North America, and Europe. The source images of all three arrays reveal a unilateral eastward rupture; however, the propagation directions and speeds differ significantly between the arrays. To understand the spatial uncertainties of the BP analyses, we analyze four moderate size aftershocks recorded by all three arrays exactly as had been conducted for the main shock. The apparent source locations inferred from BPs are systematically biased from the catalog locations, as a result of a slowness error caused by three-dimensional Earth structures. We introduce a physics-based slowness correction that successfully mitigates the source location discrepancies among the arrays. Our calibrated BPs are found to be mutually consistent and reveal a unilateral rupture propagating eastward at a speed of 2.7 km/s, localized in a relatively narrow and deep swath along the downdip edge of the locked Himalayan thrust zone. We find that the 2015 Gorkha earthquake was a localized rupture that failed to break the entire Himalayan décollement to the surface, which can be regarded as an intermediate event during the interseismic period of larger Himalayan ruptures that break the whole seismogenic zone width. Thus, our physics-based slowness correction is an important technical improvement of BP, mitigating spatial uncertainties and improving the robustness of single and multiarray studies.

Source Rupture Process of the 2016 Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan, Earthquake Derived from Near-Source Strong-Motion Records

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, A.; Zhang, W.

2016-12-01

On 15 April, 2016 the great earthquake with magnitude Mw7.1 occurred in Kumamoto prefecture, Japan. The focal mechanism solution released by F-net located the hypocenter at 130.7630°E, 32.7545°N, at a depth of 12.45 km, and the strike, dip, and the rake angle of the fault were N226°E, 84° and -142° respectively. The epicenter distribution and focal mechanisms of aftershocks implied the mechanism of the mainshock might have changed in the source rupture process, thus a single focal mechanism was not enough to explain the observed data adequately. In this study, based on the inversion result of GNSS and InSAR surface deformation with active structures for reference, we construct a finite fault model with focal mechanism changes, and derive the source rupture process by multi-time-window linear waveform inversion method using the strong-motion data (0.05 1.0Hz) obtained by K-NET and KiK-net of Japan. Our result shows that the Kumamoto earthquake is a right-lateral strike slipping rupture event along the Futagawa-Hinagu fault zone, and the seismogenic fault is divided into a northern segment and a southern one. The strike and the dip of the northern segment are N235°E, 60° respectively. And for the southern one, they are N205°E, 72° respectively. The depth range of the fault model is consistent with the depth distribution of aftershocks, and the slip on the fault plane mainly concentrate on the northern segment, in which the maximum slip is about 7.9 meter. The rupture process of the whole fault continues for approximately 18-sec, and the total seismic moment released is 5.47×1019N·m (Mw 7.1). In addition, the essential feature of the distribution of PGV and PGA synthesized by the inversion result is similar to that of observed PGA and seismic intensity.

Demonstration of the Cascadia G‐FAST geodetic earthquake early warning system for the Nisqually, Washington, earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Crowell, Brendan; Schmidt, David; Bodin, Paul; Vidale, John; Gomberg, Joan S.; Hartog, Renate; Kress, Victor; Melbourne, Tim; Santillian, Marcelo; Minson, Sarah E.; Jamison, Dylan

2016-01-01

A prototype earthquake early warning (EEW) system is currently in development in the Pacific Northwest. We have taken a two‐stage approach to EEW: (1) detection and initial characterization using strong‐motion data with the Earthquake Alarm Systems (ElarmS) seismic early warning package and (2) the triggering of geodetic modeling modules using Global Navigation Satellite Systems data that help provide robust estimates of large‐magnitude earthquakes. In this article we demonstrate the performance of the latter, the Geodetic First Approximation of Size and Time (G‐FAST) geodetic early warning system, using simulated displacements for the 2001Mw 6.8 Nisqually earthquake. We test the timing and performance of the two G‐FAST source characterization modules, peak ground displacement scaling, and Centroid Moment Tensor‐driven finite‐fault‐slip modeling under ideal, latent, noisy, and incomplete data conditions. We show good agreement between source parameters computed by G‐FAST with previously published and postprocessed seismic and geodetic results for all test cases and modeling modules, and we discuss the challenges with integration into the U.S. Geological Survey’s ShakeAlert EEW system.

GRACE gravity data help constraining seismic models of the 2004 Sumatran earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Cambiotti, G.; Bordoni, A.; Sabadini, R.; Colli, L.

2011-10-01

by GPS, complement each other for a robust inference of the seismic source of large earthquakes. Particular care is devoted to the spatial filtering of the gravity anomalies estimated both from observations and models to make their comparison significant.

Changes in groundwater chemistry before two consecutive earthquakes in Iceland

KAUST Repository

Skelton, Alasdair

2014-09-21

Groundwater chemistry has been observed to change before earthquakes and is proposed as a precursor signal. Such changes include variations in radon count rates1, 2, concentrations of dissolved elements3, 4, 5 and stable isotope ratios4, 5. Changes in seismic wave velocities6, water levels in boreholes7, micro-seismicity8 and shear wave splitting9 are also thought to precede earthquakes. Precursor activity has been attributed to expansion of rock volume7, 10, 11. However, most studies of precursory phenomena lack sufficient data to rule out other explanations unrelated to earthquakes12. For example, reproducibility of a precursor signal has seldom been shown and few precursors have been evaluated statistically. Here we analyse the stable isotope ratios and dissolved element concentrations of groundwater taken from a borehole in northern Iceland between 2008 and 2013. We find that the chemistry of the groundwater changed four to six months before two greater than magnitude 5 earthquakes that occurred in October 2012 and April 2013. Statistical analyses indicate that the changes in groundwater chemistry were associated with the earthquakes. We suggest that the changes were caused by crustal dilation associated with stress build-up before each earthquake, which caused different groundwater components to mix. Although the changes we detect are specific for the site in Iceland, we infer that similar processes may be active elsewhere, and that groundwater chemistry is a promising target for future studies on the predictability of earthquakes.

Changes in groundwater chemistry before two consecutive earthquakes in Iceland

KAUST Repository

Skelton, Alasdair; André n, Margareta; Kristmannsdó ttir, Hrefna; Stockmann, Gabrielle; Mö rth, Carl-Magnus; Sveinbjö rnsdó ttir, Á rny; Jonsson, Sigurjon; Sturkell, Erik; Guð rú nardó ttir, Helga Rakel; Hjartarson, Hreinn; Siegmund, Heike; Kockum, Ingrid

2014-01-01

Groundwater chemistry has been observed to change before earthquakes and is proposed as a precursor signal. Such changes include variations in radon count rates1, 2, concentrations of dissolved elements3, 4, 5 and stable isotope ratios4, 5. Changes in seismic wave velocities6, water levels in boreholes7, micro-seismicity8 and shear wave splitting9 are also thought to precede earthquakes. Precursor activity has been attributed to expansion of rock volume7, 10, 11. However, most studies of precursory phenomena lack sufficient data to rule out other explanations unrelated to earthquakes12. For example, reproducibility of a precursor signal has seldom been shown and few precursors have been evaluated statistically. Here we analyse the stable isotope ratios and dissolved element concentrations of groundwater taken from a borehole in northern Iceland between 2008 and 2013. We find that the chemistry of the groundwater changed four to six months before two greater than magnitude 5 earthquakes that occurred in October 2012 and April 2013. Statistical analyses indicate that the changes in groundwater chemistry were associated with the earthquakes. We suggest that the changes were caused by crustal dilation associated with stress build-up before each earthquake, which caused different groundwater components to mix. Although the changes we detect are specific for the site in Iceland, we infer that similar processes may be active elsewhere, and that groundwater chemistry is a promising target for future studies on the predictability of earthquakes.

Localizing Submarine Earthquakes by Listening to the Water Reverberations

Science.gov (United States)

Castillo, J.; Zhan, Z.; Wu, W.

2017-12-01

Mid-Ocean Ridge (MOR) earthquakes generally occur far from any land based station and are of moderate magnitude, making it complicated to detect and in most cases, locate accurately. This limits our understanding of how MOR normal and transform faults move and the manner in which they slip. Different from continental events, seismic records from earthquakes occurring beneath the ocean floor show complex reverberations caused by P-wave energy trapped in the water column that are highly dependent of the source location and the efficiency to which energy propagated to the near-source surface. These later arrivals are commonly considered to be only a nuisance as they might sometimes interfere with the primary arrivals. However, in this study, we take advantage of the wavefield's high sensitivity to small changes in the seafloor topography and the present-day availability of worldwide multi-beam bathymetry to relocate submarine earthquakes by modeling these water column reverberations in teleseismic signals. Using a three-dimensional hybrid method for modeling body wave arrivals, we demonstrate that an accurate hypocentral location of a submarine earthquake (<5 km) can be achieved if the structural complexities near the source region are appropriately accounted for. This presents a novel way of studying earthquake source properties and will serve as a means to explore the influence of physical fault structure on the seismic behavior of transform faults.

Tsunami simulation of 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake. Evaluation of difference in tsunami wave pressure acting around Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station and Fukushima Daini Nuclear Power Station among different tsunami source models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fujihara, Satoru; Hashimoto, Norihiko; Korenaga, Mariko; Tamiya, Takahiro

2016-01-01

Since the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake, evaluations based on a tsunami simulation approach have had a very important role in promoting tsunami disaster prevention measures in the case of mega-thrust earthquakes. When considering tsunami disaster prevention measures based on the knowledge obtained from tsunami simulations, it is important to carefully examine the type of tsunami source model. In current tsunami simulations, there are various ways to set the tsunami source model, and a considerable difference in tsunami behavior can be expected among the tsunami source models. In this study, we carry out a tsunami simulation of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake around Fukushima Daiichi (I) Nuclear Power Plant and Fukushima Daini (II) Nuclear Power Plant in Fukushima Prefecture, Japan, using several tsunami source models, and evaluate the difference in the tsunami behavior in the tsunami inundation process. The results show that for an incoming tsunami inundating an inland region, there are considerable relative differences in the maximum tsunami height and wave pressure. This suggests that there could be false information used in promoting tsunami disaster prevention measures in the case of mega-thrust earthquakes, depending on the tsunami source model. (author)

Earthquake data base for Romania

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rizescu, M.; Ghica, D.; Grecu, B.; Popa, M.; Borcia, I. S.

2002-01-01

A new earthquake database for Romania is being constructed, comprising complete earthquake information and being up-to-date, user-friendly and rapidly accessible. One main component of the database consists from the catalog of earthquakes occurred in Romania since 984 up to present. The catalog contains information related to locations and other source parameters, when available, and links to waveforms of important earthquakes. The other very important component is the 'strong motion database', developed for strong intermediate-depth Vrancea earthquakes where instrumental data were recorded. Different parameters to characterize strong motion properties as: effective peak acceleration, effective peak velocity, corner periods T c and T d , global response spectrum based intensities were computed and recorded into this database. Also, information on the recording seismic stations as: maps giving their positioning, photographs of the instruments and site conditions ('free-field or on buildings) are included. By the huge volume and quality of gathered data, also by its friendly user interface, the Romania earthquake data base provides a very useful tool for geosciences and civil engineering in their effort towards reducing seismic risk in Romania. (authors)

Refresher Course on Physics of Earthquakes -98 ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The objective of this course is to help teachers gain an understanding of the earhquake phenomenon and the physical processes involved in its genesis as well as offhe earthquake waves which propagate the energy released by the earthquake rupture outward from the source. The Course will begin with mathematical ...

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Web Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Fee, J.; Martinez, E.

2015-12-01

USGS Earthquake web applications provide access to earthquake information from USGS and other Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) contributors. One of the primary goals of these applications is to provide a consistent experience for accessing both near-real time information as soon as it is available and historic information after it is thoroughly reviewed. Millions of people use these applications every month including people who feel an earthquake, emergency responders looking for the latest information about a recent event, and scientists researching historic earthquakes and their effects. Information from multiple catalogs and contributors is combined by the ANSS Comprehensive Catalog into one composite catalog, identifying the most preferred information from any source for each event. A web service and near-real time feeds provide access to all contributed data, and are used by a number of users and software packages. The Latest Earthquakes application displays summaries of many events, either near-real time feeds or custom searches, and the Event Page application shows detailed information for each event. Because all data is accessed through the web service, it can also be downloaded by users. The applications are maintained as open source projects on github, and use mobile-first and responsive-web-design approaches to work well on both mobile devices and desktop computers. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/

Landquake dynamics inferred from seismic source inversion: Greenland and Sichuan events of 2017

Science.gov (United States)

Chao, W. A.

2017-12-01

In June 2017 two catastrophic landquake events occurred in Greenland and Sichuan. The Greenland event leads to tsunami hazard in the small town of Nuugaarsiaq. A landquake in Sichuan hit the town, which resulted in over 100 death. Both two events generated the strong seismic signals recorded by the real-time global seismic network. I adopt an inversion algorithm to derive the landquake force time history (LFH) using the long-period waveforms, and the landslide volume ( 76 million m3) can be rapidly estimated, facilitating the tsunami-wave modeling for early warning purpose. Based on an integrated approach involving tsunami forward simulation and seismic waveform inversion, this study has significant implications to issuing actionable warnings before hazardous tsunami waves strike populated areas. Two single-forces (SFs) mechanism (two block model) yields the best explanation for Sichuan event, which demonstrates that secondary event (seismic inferred volume: 8.2 million m3) may be mobilized by collapse-mass hitting from initial rock avalanches ( 5.8 million m3), likely causing a catastrophic disaster. The later source with a force magnitude of 0.9967×1011 N occurred 70 seconds after first mass-movement occurrence. In contrast, first event has the smaller force magnitude of 0.8116×1011 N. In conclusion, seismically inferred physical parameters will substantially contribute to improving our understanding of landquake source mechanisms and mitigating similar hazards in other parts of the world.

The Differences in Source Dynamics Between Intermediate-Depth and Deep EARTHQUAKES:A Comparative Study Between the 2014 Rat Islands Intermediate-Depth Earthquake and the 2015 Bonin Islands Deep Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Twardzik, C.; Ji, C.

2015-12-01

It has been proposed that the mechanisms for intermediate-depth and deep earthquakes might be different. While previous extensive seismological studies suggested that such potential differences do not significantly affect the scaling relationships of earthquake parameters, there has been only a few investigations regarding their dynamic characteristics, especially for fracture energy. In this work, the 2014 Mw7.9 Rat Islands intermediate-depth (105 km) earthquake and the 2015 Mw7.8 Bonin Islands deep (680 km) earthquake are studied from two different perspectives. First, their kinematic rupture models are constrained using teleseismic body waves. Our analysis reveals that the Rat Islands earthquake breaks the entire cold core of the subducting slab defined as the depth of the 650oC isotherm. The inverted stress drop is 4 MPa, compatible to that of intra-plate earthquakes at shallow depths. On the other hand, the kinematic rupture model of the Bonin Islands earthquake, which occurred in a region lacking of seismicity for the past forty years, according to the GCMT catalog, exhibits an energetic rupture within a 35 km by 30 km slip patch and a high stress drop of 24 MPa. It is of interest to note that although complex rupture patterns are allowed to match the observations, the inverted slip distributions of these two earthquakes are simple enough to be approximated as the summation of a few circular/elliptical slip patches. Thus, we investigate subsequently their dynamic rupture models. We use a simple modelling approach in which we assume that the dynamic rupture propagation obeys a slip-weakening friction law, and we describe the distribution of stress and friction on the fault as a set of elliptical patches. We will constrain the three dynamic parameters that are yield stress, background stress prior to the rupture and slip weakening distance, as well as the shape of the elliptical patches directly from teleseismic body waves observations. The study would help us

Sensitivity of the coastal tsunami simulation to the complexity of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake source model

Science.gov (United States)

Monnier, Angélique; Loevenbruck, Anne; Gailler, Audrey; Hébert, Hélène

2016-04-01

The 11 March 2011 Tohoku-Oki event, whether earthquake or tsunami, is exceptionally well documented. A wide range of onshore and offshore data has been recorded from seismic, geodetic, ocean-bottom pressure and sea level sensors. Along with these numerous observations, advance in inversion technique and computing facilities have led to many source studies. Rupture parameters inversion such as slip distribution and rupture history permit to estimate the complex coseismic seafloor deformation. From the numerous published seismic source studies, the most relevant coseismic source models are tested. The comparison of the predicted signals generated using both static and cinematic ruptures to the offshore and coastal measurements help determine which source model should be used to obtain the more consistent coastal tsunami simulations. This work is funded by the TANDEM project, reference ANR-11-RSNR-0023-01 of the French Programme Investissements d'Avenir (PIA 2014-2018).

Earthquake-induced ground failures in Italy from a reviewed database

Science.gov (United States)

Martino, S.; Prestininzi, A.; Romeo, R. W.

2014-04-01

A database (Italian acronym CEDIT) of earthquake-induced ground failures in Italy is presented, and the related content is analysed. The catalogue collects data regarding landslides, liquefaction, ground cracks, surface faulting and ground changes triggered by earthquakes of Mercalli epicentral intensity 8 or greater that occurred in the last millennium in Italy. As of January 2013, the CEDIT database has been available online for public use (http://www.ceri.uniroma1.it/cn/gis.jsp ) and is presently hosted by the website of the Research Centre for Geological Risks (CERI) of the Sapienza University of Rome. Summary statistics of the database content indicate that 14% of the Italian municipalities have experienced at least one earthquake-induced ground failure and that landslides are the most common ground effects (approximately 45%), followed by ground cracks (32%) and liquefaction (18%). The relationships between ground effects and earthquake parameters such as seismic source energy (earthquake magnitude and epicentral intensity), local conditions (site intensity) and source-to-site distances are also analysed. The analysis indicates that liquefaction, surface faulting and ground changes are much more dependent on the earthquake source energy (i.e. magnitude) than landslides and ground cracks. In contrast, the latter effects are triggered at lower site intensities and greater epicentral distances than the other environmental effects.

1/f and the Earthquake Problem: Scaling constraints that facilitate operational earthquake forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

yoder, M. R.; Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.

2012-12-01

The difficulty of forecasting earthquakes can fundamentally be attributed to the self-similar, or "1/f", nature of seismic sequences. Specifically, the rate of occurrence of earthquakes is inversely proportional to their magnitude m, or more accurately to their scalar moment M. With respect to this "1/f problem," it can be argued that catalog selection (or equivalently, determining catalog constraints) constitutes the most significant challenge to seismicity based earthquake forecasting. Here, we address and introduce a potential solution to this most daunting problem. Specifically, we introduce a framework to constrain, or partition, an earthquake catalog (a study region) in order to resolve local seismicity. In particular, we combine Gutenberg-Richter (GR), rupture length, and Omori scaling with various empirical measurements to relate the size (spatial and temporal extents) of a study area (or bins within a study area) to the local earthquake magnitude potential - the magnitude of earthquake the region is expected to experience. From this, we introduce a new type of time dependent hazard map for which the tuning parameter space is nearly fully constrained. In a similar fashion, by combining various scaling relations and also by incorporating finite extents (rupture length, area, and duration) as constraints, we develop a method to estimate the Omori (temporal) and spatial aftershock decay parameters as a function of the parent earthquake's magnitude m. From this formulation, we develop an ETAS type model that overcomes many point-source limitations of contemporary ETAS. These models demonstrate promise with respect to earthquake forecasting applications. Moreover, the methods employed suggest a general framework whereby earthquake and other complex-system, 1/f type, problems can be constrained from scaling relations and finite extents.; Record-breaking hazard map of southern California, 2012-08-06. "Warm" colors indicate local acceleration (elevated hazard

Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes

OpenAIRE

Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

2016-01-01

Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of th...

Structural heterogeneities in the source area of the Mw 7.9 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake, China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Z.; Fukao, Y.; Pei, S.

2008-12-01

The Mw 7.9 Wenchuan Earthquake occurred on May 12, 2008 (06:28:01 UTC) in the Longmen-Shan fault zone at the eastern margin of Tibet and adjacent to the Sichuan foreland basin, where as much as 9 m of coseismic slip was observed. This is the most significant earthquake to have struck China since the 1976 Tangshan Earthquake (Mw 7.6). Chinese authorities estimated more than 69,000 people were killed and 374,176 injured. About 1,485,000 people were forced into temporary shelters (http://www.gov.cn). The coseismic faulting zone coincides roughly with this aftershock distribution. The extent of the great damage may have resulted from the variation of crustal structures along the tectonic thrust faulting and strike slipping zone, causing significant coseismic displacement and acceleration on a regional scale. For a better understanding of what may have triggered this earthquake and how the rupture proceeded after the initiation, we conducted an investigation of the seismic structure in the Wenchuan earthquake source area. A large number of arrival time data of P and Pn, S and Sn phases from local earthquakes were collected and inverted jointly for the three-dimensional P- and S-wave velocity (Vp and Vs) models. The Poisson's ratio model was then calculated from these velocity models. The overall patterns of Vp and Vs anomalies are similar to each other at any of these three depths. The Sichuan Basin is a distinct entity in tomographic images, anomalously slow at 13 km depth and anomalously fast at 20 km depth, in sharp contrast to the anomalies on the mountain side across the Longmen-Shan fault zone. The area of the fault zone is characterized in general by high Vp and Vs anomalies at a depth of 13 km, although a low Vp and Vs anomaly patch is present in the middle of a total fault length of 300 km. At depths around 20 km, low Vp and Vs anomalies dominate on the mountain side including its eastern margin, where the shallower (˜13 km) and deeper (˜30 km) depths are

Preliminary Result of Earthquake Source Parameters the Mw 3.4 at 23:22:47 IWST, August 21, 2004, Centre Java, Indonesia Based on MERAMEX Project

Science.gov (United States)

Laksono, Y. A.; Brotopuspito, K. S.; Suryanto, W.; Widodo; Wardah, R. A.; Rudianto, I.

2018-03-01

In order to study the structure subsurface at Merapi Lawu anomaly (MLA) using forward modelling or full waveform inversion, it needs a good earthquake source parameters. The best result source parameter comes from seismogram with high signal to noise ratio (SNR). Beside that the source must be near the MLA location and the stations that used as parameters must be outside from MLA in order to avoid anomaly. At first the seismograms are processed by software SEISAN v10 using a few stations from MERAMEX project. After we found the hypocentre that match the criterion we fine-tuned the source parameters using more stations. Based on seismogram from 21 stations, it is obtained the source parameters as follows: the event is at August, 21 2004, on 23:22:47 Indonesia western standard time (IWST), epicentre coordinate -7.80°S, 101.34°E, hypocentre 47.3 km, dominant frequency f0 = 3.0 Hz, the earthquake magnitude Mw = 3.4.

Rupture geometry and slip distribution of the 2016 January 21st Ms6.4 Menyuan, China earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Y.

2017-12-01

On 21 January 2016, an Ms6.4 earthquake stroke Menyuan country, Qinghai Province, China. The epicenter of the main shock and locations of its aftershocks indicate that the Menyuan earthquake occurred near the left-lateral Lenglongling fault. However, the focal mechanism suggests that the earthquake should take place on a thrust fault. In addition, field investigation indicates that the earthquake did not rupture the ground surface. Therefore, the rupture geometry is unclear as well as coseismic slip distribution. We processed two pairs of InSAR images acquired by the ESA Sentinel-1A satellite with the ISCE software, and both ascending and descending orbits were included. After subsampling the coseismic InSAR images into about 800 pixels, coseismic displacement data along LOS direction are inverted for earthquake source parameters. We employ an improved mixed linear-nonlinear Bayesian inversion method to infer fault geometric parameters, slip distribution, and the Laplacian smoothing factor simultaneously. This method incorporates a hybrid differential evolution algorithm, which is an efficient global optimization algorithm. The inversion results show that the Menyuan earthquake ruptured a blind thrust fault with a strike of 124°and a dip angle of 41°. This blind fault was never investigated before and intersects with the left-lateral Lenglongling fault, but the strikes of them are nearly parallel. The slip sense is almost pure thrusting, and there is no significant slip within 4km depth. The max slip value is up to 0.3m, and the estimated moment magnitude is Mw5.93, in agreement with the seismic inversion result. The standard error of residuals between InSAR data and model prediction is as small as 0.5cm, verifying the correctness of the inversion results.

Slip rates and spatially variable creep on faults of the northern San Andreas system inferred through Bayesian inversion of Global Positioning System data

Science.gov (United States)

Murray, Jessica R.; Minson, Sarah E.; Svarc, Jerry L.

2014-01-01

Fault creep, depending on its rate and spatial extent, is thought to reduce earthquake hazard by releasing tectonic strain aseismically. We use Bayesian inversion and a newly expanded GPS data set to infer the deep slip rates below assigned locking depths on the San Andreas, Maacama, and Bartlett Springs Faults of Northern California and, for the latter two, the spatially variable interseismic creep rate above the locking depth. We estimate deep slip rates of 21.5 ± 0.5, 13.1 ± 0.8, and 7.5 ± 0.7 mm/yr below 16 km, 9 km, and 13 km on the San Andreas, Maacama, and Bartlett Springs Faults, respectively. We infer that on average the Bartlett Springs fault creeps from the Earth's surface to 13 km depth, and below 5 km the creep rate approaches the deep slip rate. This implies that microseismicity may extend below the locking depth; however, we cannot rule out the presence of locked patches in the seismogenic zone that could generate moderate earthquakes. Our estimated Maacama creep rate, while comparable to the inferred deep slip rate at the Earth's surface, decreases with depth, implying a slip deficit exists. The Maacama deep slip rate estimate, 13.1 mm/yr, exceeds long-term geologic slip rate estimates, perhaps due to distributed off-fault strain or the presence of multiple active fault strands. While our creep rate estimates are relatively insensitive to choice of model locking depth, insufficient independent information regarding locking depths is a source of epistemic uncertainty that impacts deep slip rate estimates.

Ground-motion modeling of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, part I: Validation using the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Aagaard, Brad T.; Brocher, T.M.; Dolenc, D.; Dreger, D.; Graves, R.W.; Harmsen, S.; Hartzell, S.; Larsen, S.; Zoback, M.L.

2008-01-01

We compute ground motions for the Beroza (1991) and Wald et al. (1991) source models of the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake using four different wave-propagation codes and recently developed 3D geologic and seismic velocity models. In preparation for modeling the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, we use this well-recorded earthquake to characterize how well our ground-motion simulations reproduce the observed shaking intensities and amplitude and durations of recorded motions throughout the San Francisco Bay Area. All of the simulations generate ground motions consistent with the large-scale spatial variations in shaking associated with rupture directivity and the geologic structure. We attribute the small variations among the synthetics to the minimum shear-wave speed permitted in the simulations and how they accommodate topography. Our long-period simulations, on average, under predict shaking intensities by about one-half modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) units (25%-35% in peak velocity), while our broadband simulations, on average, under predict the shaking intensities by one-fourth MMI units (16% in peak velocity). Discrepancies with observations arise due to errors in the source models and geologic structure. The consistency in the synthetic waveforms across the wave-propagation codes for a given source model suggests the uncertainty in the source parameters tends to exceed the uncertainty in the seismic velocity structure. In agreement with earlier studies, we find that a source model with slip more evenly distributed northwest and southeast of the hypocenter would be preferable to both the Beroza and Wald source models. Although the new 3D seismic velocity model improves upon previous velocity models, we identify two areas needing improvement. Nevertheless, we find that the seismic velocity model and the wave-propagation codes are suitable for modeling the 1906 earthquake and scenario events in the San Francisco Bay Area.

Some more earthquakes from medieval Kashmir

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmad, Bashir; Shafi, Muzamil

2014-07-01

Kashmir has the peculiarity of having written history of almost 5,000 years. However, the description of earthquakes in the archival contents is patchy prior to 1500 a.d. Moreover, recent search shows that there exist certain time gaps in the catalogs presently in use especially at medieval level (1128-1586 a.d.). The presence of different ruling elites in association with socioeconomic and political conditions has in many ways confused the historical context of the medieval sources. However, by a meticulous review of the Sanskrit sources (between the twelfth and sixteenth century), it has been possible to identify unspecified but fair number (eight seismic events) of earthquakes that do not exist in published catalogs of Kashmir or whose dates are very difficult to establish. Moreover, historical sources reveal that except for events which occurred during Sultan Skinder's rule (1389-1413) and during the reign of King Zain-ul-Abidin (1420-1470), all the rediscovered seismic events went into oblivion, due mainly to the fact that the sources available dedicated their interests to the military events, which often tended to overshadow/superimpose over and even concealed natural events like earthquakes, resulting in fragmentary accounts and rendering them of little value for macroseismic intensity evaluation necessary for more efficient seismic hazard assessment.

Assessment of earthquake-induced tsunami hazard at a power plant site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghosh, A.K.

2008-01-01

This paper presents a study of the tsunami hazard due to submarine earthquakes at a power plant site on the east coast of India. The paper considers various sources of earthquakes from the tectonic information, and records of past earthquakes and tsunamis. Magnitude-frequency relationship for earthquake occurrence rate and a simplified model for tsunami run-up height as a function of earthquake magnitude and the distance between the source and site have been developed. Finally, considering equal likelihood of generation of earthquakes anywhere on each of the faults, the tsunami hazard has been evaluated and presented as a relationship between tsunami height and its mean recurrence interval (MRI). Probability of exceedence of a certain wave height in a given period of time is also presented. These studies will be helpful in making an estimate of the tsunami-induced flooding potential at the site

Earthquake Recurrence and the Resolution Potential of Tectono‐Geomorphic Records

KAUST Repository

Zielke, Olaf

2018-04-17

potential of tectono‐geomorphic records is dominantly affected by measurement uncertainty, that is, by the ability to correctly infer a geomorphic marker’s pre‐earthquake(s) morphology. Typically reported values for measurement uncertainty suggest that it is improbable to resolve more than five large earthquakes from tectono‐geomorphic records.

Ocean bottom pressure observations near the source of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Inazu, D.; Hino, R.; Suzuki, S.; Osada, Y.; Ohta, Y.; Iinuma, T.; Tsushima, H.; Ito, Y.; Kido, M.; Fujimoto, H.

2011-12-01

A Mw9.0 earthquake occurred off Miyagi, northeast Japan, on 11 March 2011 (hereafter mainshock). An earthquake of M7.3, considered to be the largest foreshock of the mainshock, occurred on 9 March 2011 near the mainshock hypocenter. A suite of seismic and geodetic variations related to these earthquakes was observed by autonomous, ocean bottom pressure (OBP) gauges at multiple sites (4 sites at present) near the sources within a distance of about 100 km. This paper presents the OBP records with a focus on the earthquakes. Thanks to correcting tides, instrumental drifts, and non-tidal oceanic variations, we can detect OBP signals of tsunamis and vertical seafloor deformation of the order of centimeters with timescales of less than months. In the following we review the detected signals and how to correct the OBP data. The coseismic seafloor displacement and the tsunami accompanied by the mainshock were of the order of meters and large enough to be distinctly identified (Ito et al., 2011, GRL). Co- and post-seismic seafloor displacement and tsunami accompanied by the foreshock were of the order of centimeters which is difficult to be identified from the raw OBP records. The first evident pulses of these tsunamis in the deep sea have durations (periods) of ~20 minutes and ~10 minutes, for the mainshock and the foreshock, respectively. Amounts of seafloor vertical displacement due to post-mainshock deformation reached a few tens of centimeters in two months. It is worth noting that elevation and depression of seafloor were detected at rates of a couple of centimeters in a day after the largest foreshock. The seafloor displacement of centimeters between the largest foreshock and the mainshock can be reasonably identified after correcting non-tidal oceanic variations. The oceanic variations are simulated by a barotropic ocean model driven by atmospheric disturbances (Inazu et al., 2011, Ann. Rep. Earth Simulator Center 2011). The model enables residual OBP time series of

A statistical kinematic source inversion approach based on the QUESO library for uncertainty quantification and prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Zielke, Olaf; McDougall, Damon; Mai, Martin; Babuska, Ivo

2014-05-01

Seismic, often augmented with geodetic data, are frequently used to invert for the spatio-temporal evolution of slip along a rupture plane. The resulting images of the slip evolution for a single event, inferred by different research teams, often vary distinctly, depending on the adopted inversion approach and rupture model parameterization. This observation raises the question, which of the provided kinematic source inversion solutions is most reliable and most robust, and — more generally — how accurate are fault parameterization and solution predictions? These issues are not included in "standard" source inversion approaches. Here, we present a statistical inversion approach to constrain kinematic rupture parameters from teleseismic body waves. The approach is based a) on a forward-modeling scheme that computes synthetic (body-)waves for a given kinematic rupture model, and b) on the QUESO (Quantification of Uncertainty for Estimation, Simulation, and Optimization) library that uses MCMC algorithms and Bayes theorem for sample selection. We present Bayesian inversions for rupture parameters in synthetic earthquakes (i.e. for which the exact rupture history is known) in an attempt to identify the cross-over at which further model discretization (spatial and temporal resolution of the parameter space) is no longer attributed to a decreasing misfit. Identification of this cross-over is of importance as it reveals the resolution power of the studied data set (i.e. teleseismic body waves), enabling one to constrain kinematic earthquake rupture histories of real earthquakes at a resolution that is supported by data. In addition, the Bayesian approach allows for mapping complete posterior probability density functions of the desired kinematic source parameters, thus enabling us to rigorously assess the uncertainties in earthquake source inversions.

Fault healing promotes high-frequency earthquakes in laboratory experiments and on natural faults

Science.gov (United States)

McLaskey, Gregory C.; Thomas, Amanda M.; Glaser, Steven D.; Nadeau, Robert M.

2012-01-01

Faults strengthen or heal with time in stationary contact and this healing may be an essential ingredient for the generation of earthquakes. In the laboratory, healing is thought to be the result of thermally activated mechanisms that weld together micrometre-sized asperity contacts on the fault surface, but the relationship between laboratory measures of fault healing and the seismically observable properties of earthquakes is at present not well defined. Here we report on laboratory experiments and seismological observations that show how the spectral properties of earthquakes vary as a function of fault healing time. In the laboratory, we find that increased healing causes a disproportionately large amount of high-frequency seismic radiation to be produced during fault rupture. We observe a similar connection between earthquake spectra and recurrence time for repeating earthquake sequences on natural faults. Healing rates depend on pressure, temperature and mineralogy, so the connection between seismicity and healing may help to explain recent observations of large megathrust earthquakes which indicate that energetic, high-frequency seismic radiation originates from locations that are distinct from the geodetically inferred locations of large-amplitude fault slip

Radon observation for earthquake prediction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wakita, Hiroshi [Tokyo Univ. (Japan)

1998-12-31

Systematic observation of groundwater radon for the purpose of earthquake prediction began in Japan in late 1973. Continuous observations are conducted at fixed stations using deep wells and springs. During the observation period, significant precursory changes including the 1978 Izu-Oshima-kinkai (M7.0) earthquake as well as numerous coseismic changes were observed. At the time of the 1995 Kobe (M7.2) earthquake, significant changes in chemical components, including radon dissolved in groundwater, were observed near the epicentral region. Precursory changes are presumably caused by permeability changes due to micro-fracturing in basement rock or migration of water from different sources during the preparation stage of earthquakes. Coseismic changes may be caused by seismic shaking and by changes in regional stress. Significant drops of radon concentration in groundwater have been observed after earthquakes at the KSM site. The occurrence of such drops appears to be time-dependent, and possibly reflects changes in the regional stress state of the observation area. The absence of radon drops seems to be correlated with periods of reduced regional seismic activity. Experience accumulated over the two past decades allows us to reach some conclusions: 1) changes in groundwater radon do occur prior to large earthquakes; 2) some sites are particularly sensitive to earthquake occurrence; and 3) the sensitivity changes over time. (author)

Modeling fast and slow earthquakes at various scales.

Science.gov (United States)

Ide, Satoshi

2014-01-01

Earthquake sources represent dynamic rupture within rocky materials at depth and often can be modeled as propagating shear slip controlled by friction laws. These laws provide boundary conditions on fault planes embedded in elastic media. Recent developments in observation networks, laboratory experiments, and methods of data analysis have expanded our knowledge of the physics of earthquakes. Newly discovered slow earthquakes are qualitatively different phenomena from ordinary fast earthquakes and provide independent information on slow deformation at depth. Many numerical simulations have been carried out to model both fast and slow earthquakes, but problems remain, especially with scaling laws. Some mechanisms are required to explain the power-law nature of earthquake rupture and the lack of characteristic length. Conceptual models that include a hierarchical structure over a wide range of scales would be helpful for characterizing diverse behavior in different seismic regions and for improving probabilistic forecasts of earthquakes.

Seismic swarm associated with the 2008 eruption of Kasatochi Volcano, Alaska: earthquake locations and source parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Ruppert, Natalia G.; Prejean, Stephanie G.; Hansen, Roger A.

2011-01-01

An energetic seismic swarm accompanied an eruption of Kasatochi Volcano in the central Aleutian volcanic arc in August of 2008. In retrospect, the first earthquakes in the swarm were detected about 1 month prior to the eruption onset. Activity in the swarm quickly intensified less than 48 h prior to the first large explosion and subsequently subsided with decline of eruptive activity. The largest earthquake measured as moment magnitude 5.8, and a dozen additional earthquakes were larger than magnitude 4. The swarm exhibited both tectonic and volcanic characteristics. Its shear failure earthquake features were b value = 0.9, most earthquakes with impulsive P and S arrivals and higher-frequency content, and earthquake faulting parameters consistent with regional tectonic stresses. Its volcanic or fluid-influenced seismicity features were volcanic tremor, large CLVD components in moment tensor solutions, and increasing magnitudes with time. Earthquake location tests suggest that the earthquakes occurred in a distributed volume elongated in the NS direction either directly under the volcano or within 5-10 km south of it. Following the MW 5.8 event, earthquakes occurred in a new crustal volume slightly east and north of the previous earthquakes. The central Aleutian Arc is a tectonically active region with seismicity occurring in the crusts of the Pacific and North American plates in addition to interplate events. We postulate that the Kasatochi seismic swarm was a manifestation of the complex interaction of tectonic and magmatic processes in the Earth's crust. Although magmatic intrusion triggered the earthquakes in the swarm, the earthquakes failed in context of the regional stress field.

Near field earthquake sources scenarios and related tsunamis on the French-Italian Riviera (Western Mediterranean

Science.gov (United States)

Larroque, Christophe; Ioualalen, Mansour; Scotti, Oona

2014-05-01

The large system of thrust faults recently evidenced at the foot of the northern Ligurian margin accommodates the inversion of this ancient passive margin since at least 5 Ma (Messinian times). At depth, these faults are certainly connected to a major northward dipping thrust that accounts for the major part of the seismicity in the northern Ligurian Sea. The deformations of the Quaternary sediments along the faults attest to a compressive tectonic regime consistent with the focal mechanisms of earthquakes. The major event in the area (the Ligurian earthquake, 1887/02/23, Mw 6.7-6.9 and the related tsunami) could result from the activation of part of the Ligurian thrust. Starting from the Ligurian earthquake source characteristics (strike: N55°E, dip: 16°N, length: 35 km, width: 17 km, co-seismic slip: 1.5 m, focal depth: 15 km, Mw 6.9), we have built an exhaustive set of earthquake scenarios involving the 80 km long Ligurian thrust. (1) Two of these earthquake scenarios ruptured respectively the eastern (offshore Imperia) and western (offshore Nice) part of the Ligurian thrust. (2) As these scenarios must scan the range of potential events in accordance with the geology, a second group of scenarios tests an 80 km long rupture of the entire Ligurian thrust with different strikes (N55°E and N70°E) and different widths of the faulting surface (17 km and 27 km) and then co-seismic slips of 2 m and 3.3 m, respectively. As the Ligurian coast is a densely populated and industrial area, the vulnerability is high. We want to stress here that we are more concerned with tsunamis triggered by local earthquakes. This is because, considering their arrival times (a few minutes), the risk prevention cannot be handled by existing tsunami warning system. For all scenarios we evaluate the tsunami coastal impact. The spatial distribution of the maximum wave height (MWH) is provided with a tentative identification of the processes that are responsible for it. The predictions

Crustal structure and fault geometry of the 2010 Haiti earthquake from temporary seismometer deployments

Science.gov (United States)

Douilly, Roby; Haase, Jennifer S.; Ellsworth, William L.; Bouin, Marie‐Paule; Calais, Eric; Symithe, Steeve J.; Armbruster, John G.; Mercier de Lépinay, Bernard; Deschamps, Anne; Mildor, Saint‐Louis; Meremonte, Mark E.; Hough, Susan E.

2013-01-01

Haiti has been the locus of a number of large and damaging historical earthquakes. The recent 12 January 2010 Mw 7.0 earthquake affected cities that were largely unprepared, which resulted in tremendous losses. It was initially assumed that the earthquake ruptured the Enriquillo Plantain Garden fault (EPGF), a major active structure in southern Haiti, known from geodetic measurements and its geomorphic expression to be capable of producing M 7 or larger earthquakes. Global Positioning Systems (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data, however, showed that the event ruptured a previously unmapped fault, the Léogâne fault, a north‐dipping oblique transpressional fault located immediately north of the EPGF. Following the earthquake, several groups installed temporary seismic stations to record aftershocks, including ocean‐bottom seismometers on either side of the EPGF. We use data from the complete set of stations deployed after the event, on land and offshore, to relocate all aftershocks from 10 February to 24 June 2010, determine a 1D regional crustal velocity model, and calculate focal mechanisms. The aftershock locations from the combined dataset clearly delineate the Léogâne fault, with a geometry close to that inferred from geodetic data. Its strike and dip closely agree with the global centroid moment tensor solution of the mainshock but with a steeper dip than inferred from previous finite fault inversions. The aftershocks also delineate a structure with shallower southward dip offshore and to the west of the rupture zone, which could indicate triggered seismicity on the offshore Trois Baies reverse fault. We use first‐motion focal mechanisms to clarify the relationship of the fault geometry to the triggered aftershocks.

Salient Features of the 2015 Gorkha, Nepal Earthquake in Relation to Earthquake Cycle and Dynamic Rupture Models

Science.gov (United States)

Ampuero, J. P.; Meng, L.; Hough, S. E.; Martin, S. S.; Asimaki, D.

2015-12-01

Two salient features of the 2015 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake provide new opportunities to evaluate models of earthquake cycle and dynamic rupture. The Gorkha earthquake broke only partially across the seismogenic depth of the Main Himalayan Thrust: its slip was confined in a narrow depth range near the bottom of the locked zone. As indicated by the belt of background seismicity and decades of geodetic monitoring, this is an area of stress concentration induced by deep fault creep. Previous conceptual models attribute such intermediate-size events to rheological segmentation along-dip, including a fault segment with intermediate rheology in between the stable and unstable slip segments. We will present results from earthquake cycle models that, in contrast, highlight the role of stress loading concentration, rather than frictional segmentation. These models produce "super-cycles" comprising recurrent characteristic events interspersed by deep, smaller non-characteristic events of overall increasing magnitude. Because the non-characteristic events are an intrinsic component of the earthquake super-cycle, the notion of Coulomb triggering or time-advance of the "big one" is ill-defined. The high-frequency (HF) ground motions produced in Kathmandu by the Gorkha earthquake were weaker than expected for such a magnitude and such close distance to the rupture, as attested by strong motion recordings and by macroseismic data. Static slip reached close to Kathmandu but had a long rise time, consistent with control by the along-dip extent of the rupture. Moreover, the HF (1 Hz) radiation sources, imaged by teleseismic back-projection of multiple dense arrays calibrated by aftershock data, was deep and far from Kathmandu. We argue that HF rupture imaging provided a better predictor of shaking intensity than finite source inversion. The deep location of HF radiation can be attributed to rupture over heterogeneous initial stresses left by the background seismic activity

Rupture Speed and Dynamic Frictional Processes for the 1995 ML4.1 Shacheng, Hebei, China, Earthquake Sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, B.; Shi, B.

2010-12-01

An earthquake with ML4.1 occurred at Shacheng, Hebei, China, on July 20, 1995, followed by 28 aftershocks with 0.9≤ML≤4.0 (Chen et al, 2005). According to ZÚÑIGA (1993), for the 1995 ML4.1 Shacheng earthquake sequence, the main shock is corresponding to undershoot, while aftershocks should match overshoot. With the suggestion that the dynamic rupture processes of the overshoot aftershocks could be related to the crack (sub-fault) extension inside the main fault. After main shock, the local stresses concentration inside the fault may play a dominant role in sustain the crack extending. Therefore, the main energy dissipation mechanism should be the aftershocks fracturing process associated with the crack extending. We derived minimum radiation energy criterion (MREC) following variational principle (Kanamori and Rivera, 2004)(ES/M0')min≧[3M0/(ɛπμR3)](v/β)3, where ES and M0' are radiated energy and seismic moment gained from observation, μ is the modulus of fault rigidity, ɛ is the parameter of ɛ=M0'/M0,M0 is seismic moment and R is rupture size on the fault, v and β are rupture speed and S-wave speed. From II and III crack extending model, we attempt to reconcile a uniform expression for calculate seismic radiation efficiency ηG, which can be used to restrict the upper limit efficiency and avoid the non-physics phenomenon that radiation efficiency is larger than 1. In ML 4.1 Shacheng earthquake sequence, the rupture speed of the main shock was about 0.86 of S-wave speed β according to MREC, closing to the Rayleigh wave speed, while the rupture speeds of the remained 28 aftershocks ranged from 0.05β to 0.55β. The rupture speed was 0.9β, and most of the aftershocks are no more than 0.35β using II and III crack extending model. In addition, the seismic radiation efficiencies for this earthquake sequence were: for the most aftershocks, the radiation efficiencies were less than 10%, inferring a low seismic efficiency, whereas the radiation efficiency

Method to Determine Appropriate Source Models of Large Earthquakes Including Tsunami Earthquakes for Tsunami Early Warning in Central America

OpenAIRE

Tanioka, Yuichiro; Miranda, Greyving Jose Arguello; Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Fujii, Yushiro

2017-01-01

Large earthquakes, such as the Mw 7.7 1992 Nicaragua earthquake, have occurred off the Pacific coasts of El Salvador and Nicaragua in Central America and have generated distractive tsunamis along these coasts. It is necessary to determine appropriate fault models before large tsunamis hit the coast. In this study, first, fault parameters were estimated from the W-phase inversion, and then an appropriate fault model was determined from the fault parameters and scaling relationships with a dept...

Characterization of tsunamigenic earthquake in Java region based on seismic wave calculation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pribadi, Sugeng, E-mail: sugengpribadimsc@gmail.com [Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi Geofisika, Jl Angkasa I No. 2 Jakarta (Indonesia); Afnimar,; Puspito, Nanang T.; Ibrahim, Gunawan [Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jl. Ganesha 10, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia)

2014-03-24

This study is to characterize the source mechanism of tsunamigenic earthquake based on seismic wave calculation. The source parameter used are the ratio (Θ) between the radiated seismic energy (E) and seismic moment (M{sub o}), moment magnitude (M{sub W}), rupture duration (T{sub o}) and focal mechanism. These determine the types of tsunamigenic earthquake and tsunami earthquake. We calculate the formula using the teleseismic wave signal processing with the initial phase of P wave with bandpass filter 0.001 Hz to 5 Hz. The amount of station is 84 broadband seismometer with far distance of 30° to 90°. The 2 June 1994 Banyuwangi earthquake with M{sub W}=7.8 and the 17 July 2006 Pangandaran earthquake with M{sub W}=7.7 include the criteria as a tsunami earthquake which distributed about ratio Θ=−6.1, long rupture duration To>100 s and high tsunami H>7 m. The 2 September 2009 Tasikmalaya earthquake with M{sub W}=7.2, Θ=−5.1 and To=27 s which characterized as a small tsunamigenic earthquake.

Characterization of tsunamigenic earthquake in Java region based on seismic wave calculation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pribadi, Sugeng; Afnimar,; Puspito, Nanang T.; Ibrahim, Gunawan

2014-01-01

This study is to characterize the source mechanism of tsunamigenic earthquake based on seismic wave calculation. The source parameter used are the ratio (Θ) between the radiated seismic energy (E) and seismic moment (M o ), moment magnitude (M W ), rupture duration (T o ) and focal mechanism. These determine the types of tsunamigenic earthquake and tsunami earthquake. We calculate the formula using the teleseismic wave signal processing with the initial phase of P wave with bandpass filter 0.001 Hz to 5 Hz. The amount of station is 84 broadband seismometer with far distance of 30° to 90°. The 2 June 1994 Banyuwangi earthquake with M W =7.8 and the 17 July 2006 Pangandaran earthquake with M W =7.7 include the criteria as a tsunami earthquake which distributed about ratio Θ=−6.1, long rupture duration To>100 s and high tsunami H>7 m. The 2 September 2009 Tasikmalaya earthquake with M W =7.2, Θ=−5.1 and To=27 s which characterized as a small tsunamigenic earthquake

The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

2017-04-24

The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Hayward Fault. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities calculated that there is a 33-percent likelihood of a large (magnitude 6.7 or greater) earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault within three decades. A large Hayward Fault earthquake will produce strong ground shaking, permanent displacement of the Earth’s surface, landslides, liquefaction (soils becoming liquid-like during shaking), and subsequent fault slip, known as afterslip, and earthquakes, known as aftershocks. The most recent large earthquake on the Hayward Fault occurred on October 21, 1868, and it ruptured the southern part of the fault. The 1868 magnitude-6.8 earthquake occurred when the San Francisco Bay region had far fewer people, buildings, and infrastructure (roads, communication lines, and utilities) than it does today, yet the strong ground shaking from the earthquake still caused significant building damage and loss of life. The next large Hayward Fault earthquake is anticipated to affect thousands of structures and disrupt the lives of millions of people. Earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region has been greatly reduced as a result of previous concerted efforts; for example, tens of billions of dollars of investment in strengthening infrastructure was motivated in large part by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. To build on efforts to reduce earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region, the HayWired earthquake scenario comprehensively examines the earthquake hazards to help provide the crucial scientific information that the San Francisco Bay region can use to prepare for the next large earthquake, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards volume describes the strong ground shaking modeled in the scenario and the hazardous movements of

Near-field hazard assessment of March 11, 2011 Japan Tsunami sources inferred from different methods

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Y.; Titov, V.V.; Newman, A.; Hayes, G.; Tang, L.; Chamberlin, C.

2011-01-01

Tsunami source is the origin of the subsequent transoceanic water waves, and thus the most critical component in modern tsunami forecast methodology. Although impractical to be quantified directly, a tsunami source can be estimated by different methods based on a variety of measurements provided by deep-ocean tsunameters, seismometers, GPS, and other advanced instruments, some in real time, some in post real-time. Here we assess these different sources of the devastating March 11, 2011 Japan tsunami by model-data comparison for generation, propagation and inundation in the near field of Japan. This study provides a comparative study to further understand the advantages and shortcomings of different methods that may be potentially used in real-time warning and forecast of tsunami hazards, especially in the near field. The model study also highlights the critical role of deep-ocean tsunami measurements for high-quality tsunami forecast, and its combination with land GPS measurements may lead to better understanding of both the earthquake mechanisms and tsunami generation process. ?? 2011 MTS.

The January 2014 Northern Cuba Earthquake Sequence - Unusual Location and Unexpected Source Mechanism Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Braunmiller, J.; Thompson, G.; McNutt, S. R.

2017-12-01

On 9 January 2014, a magnitude Mw=5.1 earthquake occurred along the Bahamas-Cuba suture at the northern coast of Cuba revealing a surprising seismic hazard source for both Cuba and southern Florida where it was widely felt. Due to its location, the event and its aftershocks (M>3.5) were recorded only at far distances (300+ km) resulting in high-detection thresholds, low location accuracy, and limited source parameter resolution. We use three-component regional seismic data to study the sequence. High-pass filtered seismograms at the closest site in southern Florida are similar in character suggesting a relatively tight event cluster and revealing additional, smaller aftershocks not included in the ANSS or ISC catalogs. Aligning on the P arrival and low-pass filtering (T>10 s) uncovers a surprise polarity flip of the large amplitude surface waves on vertical seismograms for some aftershocks relative to the main shock. We performed regional moment tensor inversions of the main shock and its largest aftershocks using complete three-component seismograms from stations distributed throughout the region to confirm the mechanism changes. Consistent with the GCMT solution, we find an E-W trending normal faulting mechanism for the main event and for one immediate aftershock. Two aftershocks indicate E-W trending reverse faulting with essentially flipped P- and T-axes relative to the normal faulting events (and the same B-axes). Within uncertainties, depths of the two event families are indistinguishable and indicate shallow faulting (<10 km). One intriguing possible interpretation is that both families ruptured the same fault with reverse mechanisms compensating for overshooting. However, activity could also be spatially separated either vertically (with reverse mechanisms possibly below extension) or laterally. The shallow source depth and the 200-km long uplifted chain of islands indicate that larger, shallow and thus potentially tsunamigenic earthquakes could occur just

Sensitivity of broad-band ground-motion simulations to earthquake source and Earth structure variations: an application to the Messina Straits (Italy)

KAUST Repository

Imperatori, W.

2012-03-01

In this paper, we investigate ground-motion variability due to different faulting approximations and crustal-model parametrizations in the Messina Straits area (Southern Italy). Considering three 1-D velocity models proposed for this region and a total of 72 different source realizations, we compute broad-band (0-10 Hz) synthetics for Mw 7.0 events using a fault plane geometry recently proposed. We explore source complexity in terms of classic kinematic (constant rise-time and rupture speed) and pseudo-dynamic models (variable rise-time and rupture speed). Heterogeneous slip distributions are generated using a Von Karman autocorrelation function. Rise-time variability is related to slip, whereas rupture speed variations are connected to static stress drop. Boxcar, triangle and modified Yoffe are the adopted source time functions. We find that ground-motion variability associated to differences in crustal models is constant and becomes important at intermediate and long periods. On the other hand, source-induced ground-motion variability is negligible at long periods and strong at intermediate-short periods. Using our source-modelling approach and the three different 1-D structural models, we investigate shaking levels for the 1908 Mw 7.1 Messina earthquake adopting a recently proposed model for fault geometry and final slip. Our simulations suggest that peak levels in Messina and Reggio Calabria must have reached 0.6-0.7 g during this earthquake.

Remotely triggered seismicity in north China following the 2008 M w 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Zhigang; Wang, Weijun; Chen, Qi-Fu; Jiang, Tao

2010-11-01

We conduct a systematic survey of remote triggering of earthquakes in north China following the 2008 M w 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. We identify triggered earthquakes as impulsive seismic energies with clear P and S arrivals on 5 Hz high-pass-filtered three-component velocity seismograms during and immediately after the passage of teleseismic waves. We find clearly triggered seismic activity near the Babaoshan and Huangzhuang-Gaoliying faults southwest of Beijing, and near the aftershock zone of the 1976 M W 7.6 Tangshan earthquake. While several earthquakes occur during and immediately after the teleseismic waves in the aftershock zone of the 1975 M w 7.0 Haicheng earthquake, the change of seismicity is not significant enough to establish the direct triggering relationship. Our results suggest that intraplate regions with active faults associated with major earthquakes during historic or recent times are susceptible to remote triggering. We note that this does not always guarantee the triggering to occur, indicating that other conditions are needed. Since none of these regions is associated with any active geothermal or volcanic activity, we infer that dynamic triggering could be ubiquitous and occur in a wide range of tectonic environments.

A 15 year catalog of more than 1 million low-frequency earthquakes: Tracking tremor and slip along the deep San Andreas Fault

Science.gov (United States)

Shelly, David R.

2017-05-01

Low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) are small, rapidly recurring slip events that occur on the deep extensions of some major faults. Their collective activation is often observed as a semicontinuous signal known as tectonic (or nonvolcanic) tremor. This manuscript presents a catalog of more than 1 million LFEs detected along the central San Andreas Fault from 2001 to 2016. These events have been detected via a multichannel matched-filter search, cross-correlating waveform templates representing 88 different LFE families with continuous seismic data. Together, these source locations span nearly 150 km along the central San Andreas Fault, ranging in depth from 16 to 30 km. This accumulating catalog has been the source for numerous studies examining the behavior of these LFE sources and the inferred slip behavior of the deep fault. The relatively high temporal and spatial resolutions of the catalog have provided new insights into properties such as tremor migration, recurrence, and triggering by static and dynamic stress perturbations. Collectively, these characteristics are inferred to reflect a very weak fault likely under near-lithostatic fluid pressure, yet the physical processes controlling the stuttering rupture observed as tremor and LFE signals remain poorly understood. This paper aims to document the LFE catalog assembly process and associated caveats, while also updating earlier observations and inferred physical constraints. The catalog itself accompanies this manuscript as part of the electronic supplement, with the goal of providing a useful resource for continued future investigations.

Summary of earthquake experience database

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1999-01-01

Strong-motion earthquakes frequently occur throughout the Pacific Basin, where power plants or industrial facilities are included in the affected areas. By studying the performance of these earthquake-affected (or database) facilities, a large inventory of various types of equipment installations can be compiled that have experienced substantial seismic motion. The primary purposes of the seismic experience database are summarized as follows: to determine the most common sources of seismic damage, or adverse effects, on equipment installations typical of industrial facilities; to determine the thresholds of seismic motion corresponding to various types of seismic damage; to determine the general performance of equipment during earthquakes, regardless of the levels of seismic motion; to determine minimum standards in equipment construction and installation, based on past experience, to assure the ability to withstand anticipated seismic loads. To summarize, the primary assumption in compiling an experience database is that the actual seismic hazard to industrial installations is best demonstrated by the performance of similar installations in past earthquakes

Source Parameters for Moderate Earthquakes in the Zagros Mountains with Implications for the Depth Extent of Seismicity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Adams, A; Brazier, R; Nyblade, A; Rodgers, A; Al-Amri, A

2009-02-23

Six earthquakes within the Zagros Mountains with magnitudes between 4.9 and 5.7 have been studied to determine their source parameters. These events were selected for study because they were reported in open catalogs to have lower crustal or upper mantle source depths and because they occurred within an area of the Zagros Mountains where crustal velocity structure has been constrained by previous studies. Moment tensor inversion of regional broadband waveforms have been combined with forward modeling of depth phases on short period teleseismic waveforms to constrain source depths and moment tensors. Our results show that all six events nucleated within the upper crust (<11 km depth) and have thrust mechanisms. This finding supports other studies that call into question the existence of lower crustal or mantle events beneath the Zagros Mountains.

FEATURES AND PROBLEMS WITH HISTORICAL GREAT EARTHQUAKES AND TSUNAMIS IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lobkovsky L.

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The present study examines the historical earthquakes and tsunamis of 21 July 365 and of 9 February 1948 in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Numerical simulations were performed for the tsunamis generated by underwater seismic sources in frames of the keyboard model, as well as for their propagation in the Mediterranean Sea basin. Similarly examined were three different types of seismic sources at the same localization near the Island of Crete for the earthquake of 21 July 365, and of two different types of seismic sources for the earthquake of 9 February 1948 near the Island of Karpathos. For each scenario, the tsunami wave field characteristics from the earthquake source to coastal zones in Mediterranean Sea’s basin were obtained and histograms were constructed showing the distribution of maximum tsunami wave heights, along a 5-m isobath. Comparison of tsunami wave characteristics for all the above mentioned scenarios, demonstrates that underwater earthquakes with magnitude M > 7 in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea basin, can generate waves with coastal runup up to 9 m.

Marine and land active-source seismic investigation of geothermal potential, tectonic structure, and earthquake hazards in Pyramid Lake, Nevada

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eisses, A.; Kell, A.; Kent, G. [UNR; Driscoll, N. [UCSD; Karlin, R.; Baskin, R. [USGS; Louie, J. [UNR; Pullammanappallil, S. [Optim

2016-08-01

Amy Eisses, Annie M. Kell, Graham Kent, Neal W. Driscoll, Robert E. Karlin, Robert L. Baskin, John N. Louie, Kenneth D. Smith, Sathish Pullammanappallil, 2011, Marine and land active-source seismic investigation of geothermal potential, tectonic structure, and earthquake hazards in Pyramid Lake, Nevada: presented at American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, Dec. 5-9, abstract NS14A-08.

Geophysical Anomalies and Earthquake Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, D. D.

2008-12-01

some understanding of their sources and the physical properties of the crust, which also vary from place to place and time to time. Anomalies are not necessarily due to stress or earthquake preparation, and separating the extraneous ones is a problem as daunting as understanding earthquake behavior itself. Fourth, the associations presented between anomalies and earthquakes are generally based on selected data. Validating a proposed association requires complete data on the earthquake record and the geophysical measurements over a large area and time, followed by prospective testing which allows no adjustment of parameters, criteria, etc. The Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is dedicated to providing such prospective testing. Any serious proposal for prediction research should deal with the problems above, and anticipate the huge investment in time required to test hypotheses.

Slab Geometry and Deformation in the Northern Nazca Subduction Zone Inferred From The Relocation and Focal mechanisms of Intermediate-Depth Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Y.; Warren, L. M.; Prieto, G. A.

2015-12-01

In the northern Nazca subduction zone, the Nazca plate is subducting to the east beneath the South American Plate. At ~5.6ºN, the subducting plate has a 240-km east-west offset associated with a slab tear, called the Caldas tear, that separates the northern and southern segments. Our study seeks to better define the slab geometry and deformation in the southern segment, which has a high rate of intermediate-depth earthquakes (50-300 km) between 3.6ºN and 5.2ºN in the Cauca cluster. From Jan 2010 to Mar 2014, 228 intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Cauca cluster with local magnitude Ml 2.5-4.7 were recorded by 65 seismic stations of the Colombian National Seismic Network. We review and, if necessary, adjust the catalog P and S wave arrival picks. We use the travel times to relocate the earthquakes using a double difference relocation method. For earthquakes with Ml ≥3.8, we also use waveform modeling to compute moment tensors . The distribution of earthquake relocations shows an ~15-km-thick slab dipping to the SE. The dip angle increases from 20º at the northern edge of the cluster to 38º at the southern edge. Two concentrated groups of earthquakes extend ~40 km vertically above the general downdip trend, with a 20 km quiet gap between them at ~100 km depth. The earthquakes in the general downdip seismic zone have downdip compressional axes, while earthquakes close to the quiet gap and in the concentrated groups have an oblique component. The general decrease in slab dip angle to the north may be caused by mantle flow through the Caldas tear. The seismicity gap in the slab may be associated with an active deformation zone and the concentrated groups of earthquakes with oblique focal mechanisms could be due to a slab fold.

Strong ground motion prediction using virtual earthquakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Denolle, M A; Dunham, E M; Prieto, G A; Beroza, G C

2014-01-24

Sedimentary basins increase the damaging effects of earthquakes by trapping and amplifying seismic waves. Simulations of seismic wave propagation in sedimentary basins capture this effect; however, there exists no method to validate these results for earthquakes that have not yet occurred. We present a new approach for ground motion prediction that uses the ambient seismic field. We apply our method to a suite of magnitude 7 scenario earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault and compare our ground motion predictions with simulations. Both methods find strong amplification and coupling of source and structure effects, but they predict substantially different shaking patterns across the Los Angeles Basin. The virtual earthquake approach provides a new approach for predicting long-period strong ground motion.

Analysing earthquake slip models with the spatial prediction comparison test

KAUST Repository

Zhang, L.; Mai, Paul Martin; Thingbaijam, Kiran Kumar; Razafindrakoto, H. N. T.; Genton, Marc G.

2014-01-01

Earthquake rupture models inferred from inversions of geophysical and/or geodetic data exhibit remarkable variability due to uncertainties in modelling assumptions, the use of different inversion algorithms, or variations in data selection and data processing. A robust statistical comparison of different rupture models obtained for a single earthquake is needed to quantify the intra-event variability, both for benchmark exercises and for real earthquakes. The same approach may be useful to characterize (dis-)similarities in events that are typically grouped into a common class of events (e.g. moderate-size crustal strike-slip earthquakes or tsunamigenic large subduction earthquakes). For this purpose, we examine the performance of the spatial prediction comparison test (SPCT), a statistical test developed to compare spatial (random) fields by means of a chosen loss function that describes an error relation between a 2-D field (‘model’) and a reference model. We implement and calibrate the SPCT approach for a suite of synthetic 2-D slip distributions, generated as spatial random fields with various characteristics, and then apply the method to results of a benchmark inversion exercise with known solution. We find the SPCT to be sensitive to different spatial correlations lengths, and different heterogeneity levels of the slip distributions. The SPCT approach proves to be a simple and effective tool for ranking the slip models with respect to a reference model.

Analysing earthquake slip models with the spatial prediction comparison test

KAUST Repository

Zhang, L.

2014-11-10

Earthquake rupture models inferred from inversions of geophysical and/or geodetic data exhibit remarkable variability due to uncertainties in modelling assumptions, the use of different inversion algorithms, or variations in data selection and data processing. A robust statistical comparison of different rupture models obtained for a single earthquake is needed to quantify the intra-event variability, both for benchmark exercises and for real earthquakes. The same approach may be useful to characterize (dis-)similarities in events that are typically grouped into a common class of events (e.g. moderate-size crustal strike-slip earthquakes or tsunamigenic large subduction earthquakes). For this purpose, we examine the performance of the spatial prediction comparison test (SPCT), a statistical test developed to compare spatial (random) fields by means of a chosen loss function that describes an error relation between a 2-D field (‘model’) and a reference model. We implement and calibrate the SPCT approach for a suite of synthetic 2-D slip distributions, generated as spatial random fields with various characteristics, and then apply the method to results of a benchmark inversion exercise with known solution. We find the SPCT to be sensitive to different spatial correlations lengths, and different heterogeneity levels of the slip distributions. The SPCT approach proves to be a simple and effective tool for ranking the slip models with respect to a reference model.

Sources of Increased Spring and Streamflow Caused by the 2014 South Napa Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Rytuba, J. J.; Holzer, T. L.

2014-12-01

Seasonally dry springs and creeks began flowing over a broad region in the hills around Napa following the M6.0 South Napa earthquake on August 24, 2014. Flows in hillside creek beds, which were dry before the earthquake, were reported from 19 km west, to 6 km east, and 18 km north of Napa and the epicenter, an area that shook at MMI≥VI. The exact timing of the increased flow is unknown because the earthquake occurred at 3:20 AM PDT. A gaging station on the Napa River, which is downstream from several tributaries that began flowing after the earthquake, showed a sudden increase of flow rate within 45 minutes following the earthquake. The sudden increase at the gaging station suggests flows initiated either contemporaneously with or very soon after the strong shaking. This timing is consistent with eyewitness accounts of other streams and springs at daylight, a few hours after the earthquake. One of the largest increases of streamflow was in Green Valley, where a streamflow rate of about 100 cubic hectometers per day was measured in Wild Horse Creek. Two types of waters are being discharged in the Wild Horse Creek drainage: 1) water with low iron concentration that has exchanged with rhyolitic flows and tuffs in the upper part of the drainage; and 2) high iron concentration water that has exchanged with basaltic andesite in the middle part of drainage (vertical interval of about 75 meters). The high iron waters are depositing FeOOH other iron phases. Mixing of the two water types results in water with pH 6.9 and conductivity of 0.197 mS. This water is used by the Vallejo Water District for domestic purposes after it is mixed with recent surface water runoff stored in Lake Frey reservoir in order to improve its quality. Other drainages that have increased flow since the earthquake have water chemistry consistent with exchange with rhyolitic flows and tuffs that are the dominant rock type in these drainages.

Analysis of earthquake clustering and source spectra in the Salton Sea Geothermal Field

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Y.; Chen, X.

2015-12-01

The Salton Sea Geothermal field is located within the tectonic step-over between San Andreas Fault and Imperial Fault. Since the 1980s, geothermal energy exploration has resulted with step-like increase of microearthquake activities, which mirror the expansion of geothermal field. Distinguishing naturally occurred and induced seismicity, and their corresponding characteristics (e.g., energy release) is important for hazard assessment. Between 2008 and 2014, seismic data recorded by a local borehole array were provided public access from CalEnergy through SCEC data center; and the high quality local recording of over 7000 microearthquakes provides unique opportunity to sort out characteristics of induced versus natural activities. We obtain high-resolution earthquake location using improved S-wave picks, waveform cross-correlation and a new 3D velocity model. We then develop method to identify spatial-temporally isolated earthquake clusters. These clusters are classified into aftershock-type, swarm-type, and mixed-type (aftershock-like, with low skew, low magnitude and shorter duration), based on the relative timing of largest earthquakes and moment-release. The mixed-type clusters are mostly located at 3 - 4 km depth near injection well; while aftershock-type clusters and swarm-type clusters also occur further from injection well. By counting number of aftershocks within 1day following mainshock in each cluster, we find that the mixed-type clusters have much higher aftershock productivity compared with other types and historic M4 earthquakes. We analyze detailed spatial variation of 'b-value'. We find that the mixed-type clusters are mostly located within high b-value patches, while large (M>3) earthquakes and other types of clusters are located within low b-value patches. We are currently processing P and S-wave spectra to analyze the spatial-temporal correlation of earthquake stress parameter and seismicity characteristics. Preliminary results suggest that the

Twitter as Information Source for Rapid Damage Estimation after Major Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Eggert, Silke; Fohringer, Joachim

2014-05-01

Natural disasters like earthquakes require a fast response from local authorities. Well trained rescue teams have to be available, equipment and technology has to be ready set up, information have to be directed to the right positions so the head quarter can manage the operation precisely. The main goal is to reach the most affected areas in a minimum of time. But even with the best preparation for these cases, there will always be the uncertainty of what really happened in the affected area. Modern geophysical sensor networks provide high quality data. These measurements, however, are only mapping disjoint values from their respective locations for a limited amount of parameters. Using observations of witnesses represents one approach to enhance measured values from sensors ("humans as sensors"). These observations are increasingly disseminated via social media platforms. These "social sensors" offer several advantages over common sensors, e.g. high mobility, high versatility of captured parameters as well as rapid distribution of information. Moreover, the amount of data offered by social media platforms is quite extensive. We analyze messages distributed via Twitter after major earthquakes to get rapid information on what eye-witnesses report from the epicentral area. We use this information to (a) quickly learn about damage and losses to support fast disaster response and to (b) densify geophysical networks in areas where there is sparse information to gain a more detailed insight on felt intensities. We present a case study from the Mw 7.1 Philippines (Bohol) earthquake that happened on Oct. 15 2013. We extract Twitter messages, so called tweets containing one or more specified keywords from the semantic field of "earthquake" and use them for further analysis. For the time frame of Oct. 15 to Oct 18 we get a data base of in total 50.000 tweets whereof 2900 tweets are geo-localized and 470 have a photo attached. Analyses for both national level and locally for

Standards for Documenting Finite‐Fault Earthquake Rupture Models

KAUST Repository

Mai, Paul Martin

2016-04-06

In this article, we propose standards for documenting and disseminating finite‐fault earthquake rupture models, and related data and metadata. A comprehensive documentation of the rupture models, a detailed description of the data processing steps, and facilitating the access to the actual data that went into the earthquake source inversion are required to promote follow‐up research and to ensure interoperability, transparency, and reproducibility of the published slip‐inversion solutions. We suggest a formatting scheme that describes the kinematic rupture process in an unambiguous way to support subsequent research. We also provide guidelines on how to document the data, metadata, and data processing. The proposed standards and formats represent a first step to establishing best practices for comprehensively documenting input and output of finite‐fault earthquake source studies.

Standards for Documenting Finite‐Fault Earthquake Rupture Models

KAUST Repository

Mai, Paul Martin; Shearer, Peter; Ampuero, Jean‐Paul; Lay, Thorne

2016-01-01

In this article, we propose standards for documenting and disseminating finite‐fault earthquake rupture models, and related data and metadata. A comprehensive documentation of the rupture models, a detailed description of the data processing steps, and facilitating the access to the actual data that went into the earthquake source inversion are required to promote follow‐up research and to ensure interoperability, transparency, and reproducibility of the published slip‐inversion solutions. We suggest a formatting scheme that describes the kinematic rupture process in an unambiguous way to support subsequent research. We also provide guidelines on how to document the data, metadata, and data processing. The proposed standards and formats represent a first step to establishing best practices for comprehensively documenting input and output of finite‐fault earthquake source studies.

Spatial and Temporal Stress Drop Variations of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Miyake, H.

2013-12-01

The 2011 Tohoku earthquake sequence consists of foreshocks, mainshock, aftershocks, and repeating earthquakes. To quantify spatial and temporal stress drop variations is important for understanding M9-class megathrust earthquakes. Variability and spatial and temporal pattern of stress drop is a basic information for rupture dynamics as well as useful to source modeling. As pointed in the ground motion prediction equations by Campbell and Bozorgnia [2008, Earthquake Spectra], mainshock-aftershock pairs often provide significant decrease of stress drop. We here focus strong motion records before and after the Tohoku earthquake, and analyze source spectral ratios considering azimuth- and distance dependency [Miyake et al., 2001, GRL]. Due to the limitation of station locations on land, spatial and temporal stress drop variations are estimated by adjusting shifts from the omega-squared source spectral model. The adjustment is based on the stochastic Green's function simulations of source spectra considering azimuth- and distance dependency. We assumed the same Green's functions for event pairs for each station, both the propagation path and site amplification effects are cancelled out. Precise studies of spatial and temporal stress drop variations have been performed [e.g., Allmann and Shearer, 2007, JGR], this study targets the relations between stress drop vs. progression of slow slip prior to the Tohoku earthquake by Kato et al. [2012, Science] and plate structures. Acknowledgement: This study is partly supported by ERI Joint Research (2013-B-05). We used the JMA unified earthquake catalogue and K-NET, KiK-net, and F-net data provided by NIED.

Chapter A. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Strong Ground Motion

Science.gov (United States)

Borcherdt, Roger D.

1994-01-01

(artificial fill and bay mud). These exceptional ground-motion data are used by the authors of the papers in this chapter to infer radiation characteristics of the earthquake source, identify dominant propagation characteristics of the Earth?s crust, quantify amplification characteristics of near-surface geologic deposits, develop general amplification factors for site-dependent building-code provisions, and revise earthquake-hazard assessments for the San Francisco Bay region. Interpretations of additional data recorded in well-instrumented buildings, dams, and freeway overpasses are provided in other chapters of this report.

Acoustic and seismic imaging of the Adra Fault (NE Alboran Sea: in search of the source of the 1910 Adra earthquake

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Gràcia

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Recently acquired swath-bathymetry data and high-resolution seismic reflection profiles offshore Adra (Almería, Spain reveal the surficial expression of a NW–SE trending 20 km-long fault, which we termed the Adra Fault. Seismic imaging across the structure depicts a sub-vertical fault reaching the seafloor surface and slightly dipping to the NE showing an along-axis structural variability. Our new data suggest normal displacement of the uppermost units with probably a lateral component. Radiocarbon dating of a gravity core located in the area indicates that seafloor sediments are of Holocene age, suggesting present-day tectonic activity. The NE Alboran Sea area is characterized by significant low-magnitude earthquakes and by historical records of moderate magnitude, such as the M_w = 6.1 1910 Adra Earthquake. The location, dimension and kinematics of the Adra Fault agree with the fault solution and magnitude of the 1910 Adra Earthquake, whose moment tensor analysis indicates normal-dextral motion. The fault seismic parameters indicate that the Adra Fault is a potential source of large magnitude (M_w ≤ 6.5 earthquakes, which represents an unreported seismic hazard for the neighbouring coastal areas.

Links Between Earthquake Characteristics and Subducting Plate Heterogeneity in the 2016 Pedernales Ecuador Earthquake Rupture Zone

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, L.; Mori, J. J.

2016-12-01

The collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates formed the Himalayas, the largest orogenic belt on the Earth. The entire region accommodates shallow earthquakes, while intermediate-depth earthquakes are concentrated at the eastern and western Himalayan syntaxis. Here we investigate the focal depths, fault plane solutions, and source rupture process for three earthquake sequences, which are located at the western, central and eastern regions of the Himalayan orogenic belt. The Pamir-Hindu Kush region is located at the western Himalayan syntaxis and is characterized by extreme shortening of the upper crust and strong interaction of various layers of the lithosphere. Many shallow earthquakes occur on the Main Pamir Thrust at focal depths shallower than 20 km, while intermediate-deep earthquakes are mostly located below 75 km. Large intermediate-depth earthquakes occur frequently at the western Himalayan syntaxis about every 10 years on average. The 2015 Nepal earthquake is located in the central Himalayas. It is a typical megathrust earthquake that occurred on the shallow portion of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). Many of the aftershocks are located above the MHT and illuminate faulting structures in the hanging wall with dip angles that are steeper than the MHT. These observations provide new constraints on the collision and uplift processes for the Himalaya orogenic belt. The Indo-Burma region is located south of the eastern Himalayan syntaxis, where the strike of the plate boundary suddenly changes from nearly east-west at the Himalayas to nearly north-south at the Burma Arc. The Burma arc subduction zone is a typical oblique plate convergence zone. The eastern boundary is the north-south striking dextral Sagaing fault, which hosts many shallow earthquakes with focal depth less than 25 km. In contrast, intermediate-depth earthquakes along the subduction zone reflect east-west trending reverse faulting.

Prevention of strong earthquakes: Goal or utopia?

Science.gov (United States)

Mukhamediev, Sh. A.

2010-11-01

In the present paper, we consider ideas suggesting various kinds of industrial impact on the close-to-failure block of the Earth’s crust in order to break a pending strong earthquake (PSE) into a number of smaller quakes or aseismic slips. Among the published proposals on the prevention of a forthcoming strong earthquake, methods based on water injection and vibro influence merit greater attention as they are based on field observations and the results of laboratory tests. In spite of this, the cited proofs are, for various reasons, insufficient to acknowledge the proposed techniques as highly substantiated; in addition, the physical essence of these methods has still not been fully understood. First, the key concept of the methods, namely, the release of the accumulated stresses (or excessive elastic energy) in the source region of a forthcoming strong earthquake, is open to objection. If we treat an earthquake as a phenomenon of a loss in stability, then, the heterogeneities of the physicomechanical properties and stresses along the existing fault or its future trajectory, rather than the absolute values of stresses, play the most important role. In the present paper, this statement is illustrated by the classical examples of stable and unstable fractures and by the examples of the calculated stress fields, which were realized in the source regions of the tsunamigenic earthquakes of December 26, 2004 near the Sumatra Island and of September 29, 2009 near the Samoa Island. Here, just before the earthquakes, there were no excessive stresses in the source regions. Quite the opposite, the maximum shear stresses τmax were close to their minimum value, compared to τmax in the adjacent territory. In the present paper, we provide quantitative examples that falsify the theory of the prevention of PSE in its current form. It is shown that the measures for the prevention of PSE, even when successful for an already existing fault, can trigger or accelerate a catastrophic

Studies of the subsurface effects of earthquakes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marine, I.W.

1980-01-01

As part of the National Terminal Waste Storage Program, the Savannah River Laboratory is conducting a series of studies on the subsurface effects of earthquakes. This report summarizes three subcontracted studies. (1) Earthquake damage to underground facilities: the purpose of this study was to document damage and nondamage caused by earthquakes to tunnels and shallow underground openings; to mines and other deep openings; and to wells, shafts, and other vertical facilities. (2) Earthquake related displacement fields near underground facilities: the study included an analysis of block motion, an analysis of the dependence of displacement on the orientation and distance of joints from the earthquake source, and displacement related to distance and depth near a causative fault as a result of various shapes, depths, and senses of movement on the causative fault. (3) Numerical simulation of earthquake effects on tunnels for generic nuclear waste repositories: the objective of this study was to use numerical modeling to determine under what conditions seismic waves might cause instability of an underground opening or create fracturing that would increase the permeability of the rock mass

Recent Mega-Thrust Tsunamigenic Earthquakes and PTHA

Science.gov (United States)

Lorito, S.

2013-05-01

The occurrence of several mega-thrust tsunamigenic earthquakes in the last decade, including but not limited to the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman, the 2010 Maule, and 2011 Tohoku earthquakes, has been a dramatic reminder of the limitations in our capability of assessing earthquake and tsunami hazard and risk. However, the increasingly high-quality geophysical observational networks allowed the retrieval of most accurate than ever models of the rupture process of mega-thrust earthquakes, thus paving the way for future improved hazard assessments. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) methodology, in particular, is less mature than its seismic counterpart, PSHA. Worldwide recent research efforts of the tsunami science community allowed to start filling this gap, and to define some best practices that are being progressively employed in PTHA for different regions and coasts at threat. In the first part of my talk, I will briefly review some rupture models of recent mega-thrust earthquakes, and highlight some of their surprising features that likely result in bigger error bars associated to PTHA results. More specifically, recent events of unexpected size at a given location, and with unexpected rupture process features, posed first-order open questions which prevent the definition of an heterogeneous rupture probability along a subduction zone, despite of several recent promising results on the subduction zone seismic cycle. In the second part of the talk, I will dig a bit more into a specific ongoing effort for improving PTHA methods, in particular as regards epistemic and aleatory uncertainties determination, and the computational PTHA feasibility when considering the full assumed source variability. Only logic trees are usually explicated in PTHA studies, accounting for different possible assumptions on the source zone properties and behavior. The selection of the earthquakes to be actually modelled is then in general made on a qualitative basis or remains implicit

A new tool for rapid and automatic estimation of earthquake source parameters and generation of seismic bulletins

Science.gov (United States)

Zollo, Aldo

2016-04-01

RISS S.r.l. is a Spin-off company recently born from the initiative of the research group constituting the Seismology Laboratory of the Department of Physics of the University of Naples Federico II. RISS is an innovative start-up, based on the decade-long experience in earthquake monitoring systems and seismic data analysis of its members and has the major goal to transform the most recent innovations of the scientific research into technological products and prototypes. With this aim, RISS has recently started the development of a new software, which is an elegant solution to manage and analyse seismic data and to create automatic earthquake bulletins. The software has been initially developed to manage data recorded at the ISNet network (Irpinia Seismic Network), which is a network of seismic stations deployed in Southern Apennines along the active fault system responsible for the 1980, November 23, MS 6.9 Irpinia earthquake. The software, however, is fully exportable and can be used to manage data from different networks, with any kind of station geometry or network configuration and is able to provide reliable estimates of earthquake source parameters, whichever is the background seismicity level of the area of interest. Here we present the real-time automated procedures and the analyses performed by the software package, which is essentially a chain of different modules, each of them aimed at the automatic computation of a specific source parameter. The P-wave arrival times are first detected on the real-time streaming of data and then the software performs the phase association and earthquake binding. As soon as an event is automatically detected by the binder, the earthquake location coordinates and the origin time are rapidly estimated, using a probabilistic, non-linear, exploration algorithm. Then, the software is able to automatically provide three different magnitude estimates. First, the local magnitude (Ml) is computed, using the peak-to-peak amplitude

An ongoing earthquake sequence near Dhaka, Bangladesh, from regional recordings

Science.gov (United States)

Howe, M.; Mondal, D. R.; Akhter, S. H.; Kim, W.; Seeber, L.; Steckler, M. S.

2013-12-01

Earthquakes in and around the syntaxial region between the continent-continent collision of the Himalayan arc and oceanic subduction of the Sunda arc result primarily from the convergence of India and Eurasia-Sunda plates along two fronts. The northern front, the convergence of the Indian and Eurasian plates, has produced the Himalayas. The eastern front, the convergence of the Indian and Sunda plates, ranges from ocean-continent subduction at the Andaman Arc and Burma Arc, and transitions to continent-continent collision to the north at the Assam Syntaxis in northeast India. The India-Sunda convergence at the Burma Arc is extremely oblique. The boundary-normal convergence rate is ~17 mm/yr while the boundary-parallel rate is ~45 mm/yr including the well-known Sagaing strike-slip fault, which accommodates about half the shear component. This heterogeneous tectonic setting produces multiple earthquake sources that need to be considered when assessing seismic hazard and risk in this region. The largest earthquakes, just as in other subduction systems, are expected to be interplate events that occur on the low-angle megathrusts, such as the Mw 9.2 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and the 1762 earthquake along the Arakan margin. These earthquakes are known to produce large damage over vast areas, but since they account for large fault motions they are relatively rare. The majority of current seismicity in the study area is intraplate. Most of the seismicity associated with the Burma Arc subduction system is in the down-going slab, including the shallow-dipping part below the megathrust flooring the accretionary wedge. The strike of the wedge is ~N-S and Dhaka lies at its outer limit. One particular source relevant to seismic risk in Dhaka is illuminated by a multi-year sequence of earthquakes in Bangladesh less than 100 km southeast of Dhaka. The population in Dhaka (now at least 15 million) has been increasing dramatically due to rapid urbanization. The vulnerability

Research on Collection of Earthquake Disaster Information from the Crowd

Science.gov (United States)

Nian, Z.

2017-12-01

In China, the assessment of the earthquake disasters information is mainly based on the inversion of the seismic source mechanism and the pre-calculated population data model, the real information of the earthquake disaster is usually collected through the government departments, the accuracy and the speed need to be improved. And in a massive earthquake like the one in Mexico, the telecommunications infrastructure on ground were damaged , the quake zone was difficult to observe by satellites and aircraft in the bad weather. Only a bit of information was sent out through maritime satellite of other country. Thus, the timely and effective development of disaster relief was seriously affected. Now Chinese communication satellites have been orbiting, people don't only rely on the ground telecom base station to keep communication with the outside world, to open the web page,to land social networking sites, to release information, to transmit images and videoes. This paper will establish an earthquake information collection system which public can participate. Through popular social platform and other information sources, the public can participate in the collection of earthquake information, and supply quake zone information, including photos, video, etc.,especially those information made by unmanned aerial vehicle (uav) after earthqake, the public can use the computer, potable terminals, or mobile text message to participate in the earthquake information collection. In the system, the information will be divided into earthquake zone basic information, earthquake disaster reduction information, earthquake site information, post-disaster reconstruction information etc. and they will been processed and put into database. The quality of data is analyzed by multi-source information, and is controlled by local public opinion on them to supplement the data collected by government departments timely and implement the calibration of simulation results ,which will better guide

Estimation of earthquake source parameters in the Kachchh seismic ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

SEISAN software has been used to locate the identified local earthquakes, which were recorded at least three or more stations of the Kachchh seismological network. Three component spectra of S-wave are being inverted by using the Levenberg–Marquardt non-linear inversion technique, wherein the inversion scheme is ...

Recurrent Holocene movement on the Susitna Glacier Thrust Fault: The structure that initiated the Mw 7.9 Denali Fault earthquake, central Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Personius, Stephen; Crone, Anthony J.; Burns, Patricia A.; Reitman, Nadine G.

2017-01-01

We conducted a trench investigation and analyzed pre‐ and postearthquake topography to determine the timing and size of prehistoric surface ruptures on the Susitna Glacier fault (SGF), the thrust fault that initiated the 2002 Mw 7.9 Denali fault earthquake sequence in central Alaska. In two of our three hand‐excavated trenches, we found clear evidence for a single pre‐2002 earthquake (penultimate earthquake [PE]) and determined an age of 2210±420  cal. B.P. (2σ) for this event. We used structure‐from‐motion software to create a pre‐2002‐earthquake digital surface model (DSM) from 1:62,800‐scale aerial photography taken in 1980 and compared this DSM with postearthquake 5‐m/pixel Interferometric Synthetic Aperature Radar topography taken in 2010. Topographic profiles measured from the pre‐earthquake DSM show features that we interpret as fault and fold scarps. These landforms were about the same size as those formed in 2002, so we infer that the PE was similar in size to the initial (Mw 7.2) subevent of the 2002 sequence. A recurrence interval of 2270 yrs and dip slip of ∼4.8  m yield a single‐interval slip rate of ∼1.8  mm/yr. The lack of evidence for pre‐PE deformation indicates probable episodic (clustering) behavior on the SGF that may be related to strain migration among other similarly oriented thrust faults that together accommodate shortening south of the Denali fault. We suspect that slip‐partitioned thrust‐triggered earthquakes may be a common occurrence on the Denali fault system, but documenting the frequency of such events will be very difficult, given the lack of long‐term paleoseismic records, the number of potential thrust‐earthquake sources, and the pervasive glacial erosion in the region.

An Earthquake Source Sensitivity Analysis for Tsunami Propagation in the Eastern Mediterranean

Science.gov (United States)

Necmioglu, Ocal; Meral Ozel, Nurcan

2013-04-01

An earthquake source parameter sensitivity analysis for tsunami propagation in the Eastern Mediterranean has been performed based on 8 August 1303 Crete and Dodecanese Islands earthquake resulting in destructive inundation in the Eastern Mediterranean. The analysis involves 23 cases describing different sets of strike, dip, rake and focal depth, while keeping the fault area and displacement, thus the magnitude, same. The main conclusions of the evaluation are drawn from the investigation of the wave height distributions at Tsunami Forecast Points (TFP). The earthquake vs. initial tsunami source parameters comparison indicated that the maximum initial wave height values correspond in general to the changes in rake angle. No clear depth dependency is observed within the depth range considered and no strike angle dependency is observed in terms of amplitude change. Directivity sensitivity analysis indicated that for the same strike and dip, 180° shift in rake may lead to 20% change in the calculated tsunami wave height. Moreover, an approximately 10 min difference in the arrival time of the initial wave has been observed. These differences are, however, greatly reduced in the far field. The dip sensitivity analysis, performed separately for thrust and normal faulting, has both indicated that an increase in the dip angle results in the decrease of the tsunami wave amplitude in the near field approximately 40%. While a positive phase shift is observed, the period and the shape of the initial wave stays nearly the same for all dip angles at respective TFPs. These affects are, however, not observed at the far field. The resolution of the bathymetry, on the other hand, is a limiting factor for further evaluation. Four different cases were considered for the depth sensitivity indicating that within the depth ranges considered (15-60 km), the increase of the depth has only a smoothing effect on the synthetic tsunami wave height measurements at the selected TFPs. The strike

Overview of Historical Earthquake Document Database in Japan and Future Development

Science.gov (United States)

Nishiyama, A.; Satake, K.

2014-12-01

In Japan, damage and disasters from historical large earthquakes have been documented and preserved. Compilation of historical earthquake documents started in the early 20th century and 33 volumes of historical document source books (about 27,000 pages) have been published. However, these source books are not effectively utilized for researchers due to a contamination of low-reliability historical records and a difficulty for keyword searching by characters and dates. To overcome these problems and to promote historical earthquake studies in Japan, construction of text database started in the 21 century. As for historical earthquakes from the beginning of the 7th century to the early 17th century, "Online Database of Historical Documents in Japanese Earthquakes and Eruptions in the Ancient and Medieval Ages" (Ishibashi, 2009) has been already constructed. They investigated the source books or original texts of historical literature, emended the descriptions, and assigned the reliability of each historical document on the basis of written age. Another database compiled the historical documents for seven damaging earthquakes occurred along the Sea of Japan coast in Honshu, central Japan in the Edo period (from the beginning of the 17th century to the middle of the 19th century) and constructed text database and seismic intensity data base. These are now publicized on the web (written only in Japanese). However, only about 9 % of the earthquake source books have been digitized so far. Therefore, we plan to digitize all of the remaining historical documents by the research-program which started in 2014. The specification of the data base will be similar for previous ones. We also plan to combine this database with liquefaction traces database, which will be constructed by other research program, by adding the location information described in historical documents. Constructed database would be utilized to estimate the distributions of seismic intensities and tsunami

Landslides triggered by the 1946 Ancash earthquake, Peru

Science.gov (United States)

Kampherm, T. S.; Evans, S. G.; Valderrama Murillo, P.

2009-04-01

The 1946 M7.3 Ancash Earthquake triggered a large number of landslides in an epicentral area that straddled the Continental Divide of South America in the Andes of Peru. A small number of landslides were described in reconnaissance reports by E. Silgado and Arnold Heim published shortly after the earthquake, but further details of the landslides triggered by the earthquake have not been reported since. Utilising field traverses, aerial photograph interpretation and GIS, our study mapped 45 landslides inferred to have been triggered by the event. 83% were rock avalanches involving Cretaceous limestones interbedded with shales. The five largest rock/debris avalanches occurred at Rio Llama (est. vol. 37 M m3), Suytucocha (est. vol., 13.5 Mm3), Quiches (est. vol. 10.5 Mm3 ), Pelagatos (est. vol. 8 Mm3), and Shundoy (est. vol. 8 Mm3). The Suytucocha, Quiches, and Pelagatos landslides were reported by Silgado and Heim. Rock slope failure was most common on slopes with a southwest aspect, an orientation corresponding to the regional dip direction of major planar structures in the Andean foreland belt (bedding planes and thrust faults). In valleys oriented transverse to the NW-SE structural grain of the epicentral area, south-westerly dipping bedding planes combined with orthogonal joint sets to form numerous wedge failures. Many initial rock slope failures were transformed into rock/debris avalanches by the entrainment of colluvium in their path. At Acobamba, a rock avalanche that transformed into a debris avalanche (est. vol. 4.3 Mm3) overwhelmed a village resulting in the deaths of 217 people. The cumulative volume-frequency plot shows a strong power law relation below a marked rollover, similar in form to that derived for landslides triggered by the 1994 Northridge Earthquake. The total volume of the 45 landslides is approximately 93 Mm3. The data point for the Ancash Earthquake plots near the regression line calculated by Keefer (1994), and modified by Malamud et al

Leveraging geodetic data to reduce losses from earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Murray, Jessica R.; Roeloffs, Evelyn A.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Langbein, John O.; Leith, William S.; Minson, Sarah E.; Svarc, Jerry L.; Thatcher, Wayne R.

2018-04-23

Seismic hazard assessments that are based on a variety of data and the best available science, coupled with rapid synthesis of real-time information from continuous monitoring networks to guide post-earthquake response, form a solid foundation for effective earthquake loss reduction. With this in mind, the Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Natural Hazards Mission Area (NHMA) engages in a variety of undertakings, both established and emergent, in order to provide high quality products that enable stakeholders to take action in advance of and in response to earthquakes. Examples include the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), development of tools for improved situational awareness such as earthquake early warning (EEW) and operational earthquake forecasting (OEF), research about induced seismicity, and new efforts to advance comprehensive subduction zone science and monitoring. Geodetic observations provide unique and complementary information directly relevant to advancing many aspects of these efforts (fig. 1). EHP scientists have long leveraged geodetic data for a range of influential studies, and they continue to develop innovative observation and analysis methods that push the boundaries of the field of geodesy as applied to natural hazards research. Given the ongoing, rapid improvement in availability, variety, and precision of geodetic measurements, considering ways to fully utilize this observational resource for earthquake loss reduction is timely and essential. This report presents strategies, and the underlying scientific rationale, by which the EHP could achieve the following outcomes: The EHP is an authoritative source for the interpretation of geodetic data and its use for earthquake loss reduction throughout the United States and its territories.The USGS consistently provides timely, high quality geodetic data to stakeholders.Significant earthquakes are better characterized by incorporating geodetic data into USGS

On The Source Of The 25 November 1941 - Atlantic Tsunami

Science.gov (United States)

Baptista, M. A.; Lisboa, F. B.; Miranda, J. M. A.

2015-12-01

In this study we analyze the tsunami recorded in the North Atlantic following the 25 November 1941 earthquake. The earthquake with a magnitude of 8.3, located on the Gloria Fault, was one of the largest strike slip events recorded. The Gloria fault is a 500 km long scarp in the North Atlantic Ocean between 19W and 24W known to be a segment of the Eurasia-Nubia plate boundary between Iberia and the Azores. Ten tide stations recorded the tsunami. Six in Portugal (mainland, Azores and Madeira Islands), two in Morocco, one in the United Kingdom and one in Spain (Tenerife-Canary Islands). The tsunami waves reached Azores and Madeira Islands less than one hour after the main shock. The tide station of Casablanca (in Morocco) recorded the maximum amplitude of 0.54 m. All amplitudes recorded are lower than 0.5 m but the tsunami reached Portugal mainland in high tide conditions where the sea flooded some streets We analyze the 25 November 1941 tsunami data using the tide-records in the coasts of Portugal, Spain, Morocco and UK to infer its source. The use of wavelet analysis to characterize the frequency content of the tide-records shows predominant periods of 9-13min e 18-22min. A preliminary location of the tsunami source location was obtained Backward Ray Tracing (BRT). The results of the BRT technique are compatible with the epicenter location of the earthquake. We compute empirical Green functions for the earthquake generation area, and use a linear shallow water inversion technique to compute the initial water displacement. The comparison between forward modeling with observations shows a fair agreement with available data. This work received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n° 603839 (Project ASTARTE - Assessment, Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe)"

The Manchester earthquake swarm of October 2002

Science.gov (United States)

Baptie, B.; Ottemoeller, L.

2003-04-01

An earthquake sequence started in the Greater Manchester area of the United Kingdom on October 19, 2002. This has continued to the time of writing and has consisted of more than 100 discrete earthquakes. Three temporary seismograph stations were installed to supplement existing permanent stations and to better understand the relationship between the seismicity and local geology. Due to the urban location, these were experienced by a large number of people. The largest event on October 21 had a magnitude ML 3.9. The activity appears to be an earthquake swarm, since there is no clear distinction between a main shock and aftershocks. However, most of the energy during the sequence was actually released in two earthquakes separated by a few seconds in time, on October 21 at 11:42. Other examples of swarm activity in the UK include Comrie (1788-1801, 1839-46), Glenalmond (1970-72), Doune (1997) and Blackford (1997-98, 2000-01) in central Scotland, Constantine (1981, 1986, 1992-4) in Cornwall, and Johnstonbridge (mid1980s) and Dumfries (1991,1999). The clustering of these events in time and space does suggest that there is a causal relationship between the events of the sequence. Joint hypocenter determination was used to simultaneously locate the swarm earthquakes, determine station corrections and improve the relative locations. It seems likely that all events in the sequence originate from a relatively small source volume. This is supported by the similarities in source mechanism and waveform signals between the various events. Focal depths were found to be very shallow and of the order of about 2-3 km. Source mechanisms determined for the largest of the events show strike-slip solutions along either northeast-southwest or northwest-southeast striking fault planes. The surface expression of faults in the epicentral area is generally northwest-southeast, suggesting that this is the more likely fault plane.

USGS GNSS Applications to Earthquake Disaster Response and Hazard Mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Hudnut, K. W.; Murray, J. R.; Minson, S. E.

2015-12-01

Rapid characterization of earthquake rupture is important during a disaster because it establishes which fault ruptured and the extent and amount of fault slip. These key parameters, in turn, can augment in situ seismic sensors for identifying disruption to lifelines as well as localized damage along the fault break. Differential GNSS station positioning, along with imagery differencing, are important methods for augmenting seismic sensors. During response to recent earthquakes (1989 Loma Prieta, 1992 Landers, 1994 Northridge, 1999 Hector Mine, 2010 El Mayor - Cucapah, 2012 Brawley Swarm and 2014 South Napa earthquakes), GNSS co-seismic and post-seismic observations proved to be essential for rapid earthquake source characterization. Often, we find that GNSS results indicate key aspects of the earthquake source that would not have been known in the absence of GNSS data. Seismic, geologic, and imagery data alone, without GNSS, would miss important details of the earthquake source. That is, GNSS results provide important additional insight into the earthquake source properties, which in turn help understand the relationship between shaking and damage patterns. GNSS also adds to understanding of the distribution of slip along strike and with depth on a fault, which can help determine possible lifeline damage due to fault offset, as well as the vertical deformation and tilt that are vitally important for gravitationally driven water systems. The GNSS processing work flow that took more than one week 25 years ago now takes less than one second. Formerly, portable receivers needed to be set up at a site, operated for many hours, then data retrieved, processed and modeled by a series of manual steps. The establishment of continuously telemetered, continuously operating high-rate GNSS stations and the robust automation of all aspects of data retrieval and processing, has led to sub-second overall system latency. Within the past few years, the final challenges of

Measuring the fractal dimension of the seismic source through the high-frequency fall-off of source spectra

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Z.L.; Chen, Y.T.; Kim, S.G.

1995-09-01

Using the Wigner-distribution estimation, the high-frequency fall-off of source spectra was estimated. The technique was applied to the analysis of the source spectra of the July 22, 1994, Vladivostok M6.4 deep-focus earthquake and that of the July 22, 1994, Northern Japan Sea M5.7 deep-focus earthquake. It is shown that the high-frequency fall-off of the source spectra of these two earthquakes may be characterized by two parts. Between the first corner frequency f 1 and the second corner frequency f 2 , the high-frequency fall-off of the source spectra can be represented by f 5.0 : above f 2 , the high-frequency fall-off can be represented by f 1.4 . In the perspective of the fractal geometry of earthquake source, it seems that the deep-focus earthquakes under consideration may be characterized as being composed of some 'sub events'. On the other hand, each sub event has its complex structure. (author). 12 refs, 3 figs, 1 tab

Modeling Seismic Cycles of Great Megathrust Earthquakes Across the Scales With Focus at Postseismic Phase

Science.gov (United States)

Sobolev, Stephan V.; Muldashev, Iskander A.

2017-12-01

Subduction is substantially multiscale process where the stresses are built by long-term tectonic motions, modified by sudden jerky deformations during earthquakes, and then restored by following multiple relaxation processes. Here we develop a cross-scale thermomechanical model aimed to simulate the subduction process from 1 min to million years' time scale. The model employs elasticity, nonlinear transient viscous rheology, and rate-and-state friction. It generates spontaneous earthquake sequences and by using an adaptive time step algorithm, recreates the deformation process as observed naturally during the seismic cycle and multiple seismic cycles. The model predicts that viscosity in the mantle wedge drops by more than three orders of magnitude during the great earthquake with a magnitude above 9. As a result, the surface velocities just an hour or day after the earthquake are controlled by viscoelastic relaxation in the several hundred km of mantle landward of the trench and not by the afterslip localized at the fault as is currently believed. Our model replicates centuries-long seismic cycles exhibited by the greatest earthquakes and is consistent with the postseismic surface displacements recorded after the Great Tohoku Earthquake. We demonstrate that there is no contradiction between extremely low mechanical coupling at the subduction megathrust in South Chile inferred from long-term geodynamic models and appearance of the largest earthquakes, like the Great Chile 1960 Earthquake.

The GED4GEM project: development of a Global Exposure Database for the Global Earthquake Model initiative

Science.gov (United States)

Gamba, P.; Cavalca, D.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Huyck, C.; Crowley, H.

2012-01-01

In order to quantify earthquake risk of any selected region or a country of the world within the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) framework (www.globalquakemodel.org/), a systematic compilation of building inventory and population exposure is indispensable. Through the consortium of leading institutions and by engaging the domain-experts from multiple countries, the GED4GEM project has been working towards the development of a first comprehensive publicly available Global Exposure Database (GED). This geospatial exposure database will eventually facilitate global earthquake risk and loss estimation through GEM’s OpenQuake platform. This paper provides an overview of the GED concepts, aims, datasets, and inference methodology, as well as the current implementation scheme, status and way forward.

Measures for groundwater security during and after the Hanshin-Awaji earthquake (1995) and the Great East Japan earthquake (2011), Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Tanaka, Tadashi

2016-03-01

Many big earthquakes have occurred in the tectonic regions of the world, especially in Japan. Earthquakes often cause damage to crucial life services such as water, gas and electricity supply systems and even the sewage system in urban and rural areas. The most severe problem for people affected by earthquakes is access to water for their drinking/cooking and toilet flushing. Securing safe water for daily life in an earthquake emergency requires the establishment of countermeasures, especially in a mega city like Tokyo. This paper described some examples of groundwater use in earthquake emergencies, with reference to reports, books and newspapers published in Japan. The consensus is that groundwater, as a source of water, plays a major role in earthquake emergencies, especially where the accessibility of wells coincides with the emergency need. It is also important to introduce a registration system for citizen-owned and company wells that can form the basis of a cooperative during a disaster; such a registration system was implemented by many Japanese local governments after the Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake in 1995 and the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, and is one of the most effective countermeasures for groundwater use in an earthquake emergency. Emphasis is also placed the importance of establishing of a continuous monitoring system of groundwater conditions for both quantity and quality during non-emergency periods.

Mobile sensing of point-source fugitive methane emissions using Bayesian inference: the determination of the likelihood function

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, X.; Albertson, J. D.

2016-12-01

Natural gas is considered as a bridge fuel towards clean energy due to its potential lower greenhouse gas emission comparing with other fossil fuels. Despite numerous efforts, an efficient and cost-effective approach to monitor fugitive methane emissions along the natural gas production-supply chain has not been developed yet. Recently, mobile methane measurement has been introduced which applies a Bayesian approach to probabilistically infer methane emission rates and update estimates recursively when new measurements become available. However, the likelihood function, especially the error term which determines the shape of the estimate uncertainty, is not rigorously defined and evaluated with field data. To address this issue, we performed a series of near-source (using a specialized vehicle mounted with fast response methane analyzers and a GPS unit. Methane concentrations were measured at two different heights along mobile traversals downwind of the sources, and concurrent wind and temperature data are recorded by nearby 3-D sonic anemometers. With known methane release rates, the measurements were used to determine the functional form and the parameterization of the likelihood function in the Bayesian inference scheme under different meteorological conditions.

14 April 1895, Ljubljana earthquake - A new, cross-border study

Science.gov (United States)

Albini, Paola; Cecić, Ina; Hammerl, Christa

2014-05-01

Though it has been the object of both contemporary and modern investigations, the 14 April 1895, Ljubljana event (Mw ~6, according to the European catalogue SHEEC) is still not fully described in its effects. One manifest reason for this is that being the 1895 earthquake a cross-border event, it affected an area that today pertains to three different countries, Slovenia, Austria, and Italy, as well as accounted for in sources today scattered in different archives and libraries. In addition, the 1895 Ljubljana earthquake was a turning point for many aspects. Imperial Vienna sent help to rebuild the damaged city and its surroundings, and the architects brought modern ideas about urban planning, public hygiene and contemporary design. It was also the beginning of organised seismological observations in Slovenia - macroseismic, right after the earthquake, and instrumental, in 1896. The macroseismic data about this earthquake are plentiful and very well preserved. In this new, cross-border study we intend to re-evaluate the already known as well as the newly collected data sources. Specific attention is devoted to the archival documentation on damage, and to the far-field data, which were not comprehensively taken into account beforehand. As the earthquake was felt in a large part of central and Eastern Europe, a considerable effort is put into collecting and interpreting the coeval sources, written in many different languages.

Abundant aftershock sequence of the 2015 Mw7.5 Hindu Kush intermediate-depth earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Chenyu; Peng, Zhigang; Yao, Dongdong; Guo, Hao; Zhan, Zhongwen; Zhang, Haijiang

2018-05-01

The 2015 Mw7.5 Hindu Kush earthquake occurred at a depth of 213 km beneath the Hindu Kush region of Afghanistan. While many early aftershocks were missing from the global earthquake catalogues, this sequence was recorded continuously by eight broad-band stations within 500 km. Here we use a waveform matching technique to systematically detect earthquakes around the main shock. More than 3000 events are detected within 35 d after the main shock, as compared with 42 listed in the Advanced National Seismic System catalogue (or 196 in the International Seismological Centre catalogue). The aftershock sequence generally follows the Omori's law with a decay constant p = 0.92. We also apply the recently developed double-pair double-difference technique to relocate all detected aftershocks. Most of them are located to the west of the hypocentre of the main shock, consistent with the westward propagation of the main-shock rupture. The aftershocks outline a nearly vertical southward dipping plane, which matches well with one of the nodal planes of the main shock. We conclude that the aftershock sequence of this intermediate-depth earthquake shares many similarities with those for shallow earthquakes and infer that there are some common mechanisms responsible for shallow and intermediate-depth earthquakes.

Complex rupture during the 12 January 2010 Haiti earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Hayes, G.P.; Briggs, R.W.; Sladen, A.; Fielding, E.J.; Prentice, C.; Hudnut, K.; Mann, P.; Taylor, F.W.; Crone, A.J.; Gold, R.; Ito, T.; Simons, M.

2010-01-01

Initially, the devastating Mw 7.0, 12 January 2010 Haiti earthquake seemed to involve straightforward accommodation of oblique relative motion between the Caribbean and North American plates along the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault zone. Here, we combine seismological observations, geologic field data and space geodetic measurements to show that, instead, the rupture process may have involved slip on multiple faults. Primary surface deformation was driven by rupture on blind thrust faults with only minor, deep, lateral slip along or near the main Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault zone; thus the event only partially relieved centuries of accumulated left-lateral strain on a small part of the plate-boundary system. Together with the predominance of shallow off-fault thrusting, the lack of surface deformation implies that remaining shallow shear strain will be released in future surface-rupturing earthquakes on the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault zone, as occurred in inferred Holocene and probable historic events. We suggest that the geological signature of this earthquakeg-broad warping and coastal deformation rather than surface rupture along the main fault zoneg-will not be easily recognized by standard palaeoseismic studies. We conclude that similarly complex earthquakes in tectonic environments that accommodate both translation and convergenceg-such as the San Andreas fault through the Transverse Ranges of Californiag-may be missing from the prehistoric earthquake record. ?? 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Earthquake hazard assessment in the Zagros Orogenic Belt of Iran using a fuzzy rule-based model

Science.gov (United States)

Farahi Ghasre Aboonasr, Sedigheh; Zamani, Ahmad; Razavipour, Fatemeh; Boostani, Reza

2017-08-01

Producing accurate seismic hazard map and predicting hazardous areas is necessary for risk mitigation strategies. In this paper, a fuzzy logic inference system is utilized to estimate the earthquake potential and seismic zoning of Zagros Orogenic Belt. In addition to the interpretability, fuzzy predictors can capture both nonlinearity and chaotic behavior of data, where the number of data is limited. In this paper, earthquake pattern in the Zagros has been assessed for the intervals of 10 and 50 years using fuzzy rule-based model. The Molchan statistical procedure has been used to show that our forecasting model is reliable. The earthquake hazard maps for this area reveal some remarkable features that cannot be observed on the conventional maps. Regarding our achievements, some areas in the southern (Bandar Abbas), southwestern (Bandar Kangan) and western (Kermanshah) parts of Iran display high earthquake severity even though they are geographically far apart.

Homogeneity of small-scale earthquake faulting, stress, and fault strength

Science.gov (United States)

Hardebeck, J.L.

2006-01-01

Small-scale faulting at seismogenic depths in the crust appears to be more homogeneous than previously thought. I study three new high-quality focal-mechanism datasets of small (M angular difference between their focal mechanisms. Closely spaced earthquakes (interhypocentral distance earthquakes contemporaneously. On these short length scales, the crustal stress orientation and fault strength (coefficient of friction) are inferred to be homogeneous as well, to produce such similar earthquakes. Over larger length scales (???2-50 km), focal mechanisms become more diverse with increasing interhypocentral distance (differing on average by 40-70??). Mechanism variability on ???2- to 50 km length scales can be explained by ralatively small variations (???30%) in stress or fault strength. It is possible that most of this small apparent heterogeneity in stress of strength comes from measurement error in the focal mechanisms, as negligibble variation in stress or fault strength (<10%) is needed if each earthquake is assigned the optimally oriented focal mechanism within the 1-sigma confidence region. This local homogeneity in stress orientation and fault strength is encouraging, implying it may be possible to measure these parameters with enough precision to be useful in studying and modeling large earthquakes.

The earthquake lights (EQL of the 6 April 2009 Aquila earthquake, in Central Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Fidani

2010-05-01

Full Text Available A seven-month collection of testimonials about the 6 April 2009 earthquake in Aquila, Abruzzo region, Italy, was compiled into a catalogue of non-seismic phenomena. Luminous phenomena were often reported starting about nine months before the strong shock and continued until about five months after the shock. A summary and list of the characteristics of these sightings was made according to 20th century classifications and a comparison was made with the Galli outcomes. These sightings were distributed over a large area around the city of Aquila, with a major extension to the north, up to 50 km. Various earthquake lights were correlated with several landscape characteristics and the source and dynamic of the earthquake. Some preliminary considerations on the location of the sightings suggest a correlation between electrical discharges and asperities, while flames were mostly seen along the Aterno Valley.

Characteristics of seismic sources of some Asian earthquakes and Soviet underground explosions from Gauribidanur array records

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Basu, T.K.; Arora, S.K.

1987-01-01

Among one hundred sixty-five shallow-focus earthquakes which occurred over a six-year period (1980-1985) in thirty-five different Asian provinces, Gauribidanur array (GBA) P-wave seismograms of all of them and P c P seismograms of thirty-one of them from fourteen regions were processed to deduce temporal and spectral characteristics of their sources. These were compared with the corresponding features deduced earlier (Basu and Arora ; 1985, 1986) from eighty-eight known and presumed Soviet underground explosions. The identifiers that yielded wider separation between earthquakes and explosions included among others: (i) cube root of signal complexity per unit TMF (third moment of frequency: CTMF parameter), (ii) spectral energy ratio of P c P in two distinct frequency passbands (SENR Parameters), and (iii) normalized time-window energy ratio (NTENR parameter) and normalized spectral energy ratio (NSENR parameter) of P and P c P signals. The last two of these particularly helped to accentuate the main phase and the relative high-frequency content in the P c P record, which considerably increased the efficacy of the P c P discriminant. 5 refs., 10 figures, 6 tables. (author)

Earthquake prediction the ory and its relation to precursors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Negarestani, A.; Setayeshi, S.; Ghannadi-Maragheh, M.; Akasheh, B.

2001-01-01

Since we don't have enough knowledge about the Physics of earthquakes. therefore. the study of seismic precursors plays an important role in earthquake prediction. Earthquake prediction is a science which discusses about precursory phenomena during seismogenic process, and then investigates the correlation and association among them and the intrinsic relation between precursors and the seismogenic process. ar the end judges comprehensively the seismic status and finally makes earthquake prediction. There are two ways for predicting earthquake prediction. The first is to study the physics of seismogenic process and to determine the parameters in the process based on the source theories and the second way is to use seismic precursors. In this paper the theory of earthquake is reviewed. We also study theory of earthquake using models of earthquake origin, the relation between seismogenic process and various accompanying precursory phenomena. The earthquake prediction is divided into three categories: long-term, medium-term and short-term. We study seismic anomalous behavior. electric field, crustal deformation, gravity. magnetism of earth. change of groundwater variation. groundwater geochemistry and change of Radon gas emission. Finally, it is concluded the there is a correlation between Radon gas emission and earthquake phenomena. Meanwhile, there are some samples from actual processing in this area

Earthquake location in island arcs

Science.gov (United States)

Engdahl, E.R.; Dewey, J.W.; Fujita, K.

1982-01-01

A comprehensive data set of selected teleseismic P-wave arrivals and local-network P- and S-wave arrivals from large earthquakes occurring at all depths within a small section of the central Aleutians is used to examine the general problem of earthquake location in island arcs. Reference hypocenters for this special data set are determined for shallow earthquakes from local-network data and for deep earthquakes from combined local and teleseismic data by joint inversion for structure and location. The high-velocity lithospheric slab beneath the central Aleutians may displace hypocenters that are located using spherically symmetric Earth models; the amount of displacement depends on the position of the earthquakes with respect to the slab and on whether local or teleseismic data are used to locate the earthquakes. Hypocenters for trench and intermediate-depth events appear to be minimally biased by the effects of slab structure on rays to teleseismic stations. However, locations of intermediate-depth events based on only local data are systematically displaced southwards, the magnitude of the displacement being proportional to depth. Shallow-focus events along the main thrust zone, although well located using only local-network data, are severely shifted northwards and deeper, with displacements as large as 50 km, by slab effects on teleseismic travel times. Hypocenters determined by a method that utilizes seismic ray tracing through a three-dimensional velocity model of the subduction zone, derived by thermal modeling, are compared to results obtained by the method of joint hypocenter determination (JHD) that formally assumes a laterally homogeneous velocity model over the source region and treats all raypath anomalies as constant station corrections to the travel-time curve. The ray-tracing method has the theoretical advantage that it accounts for variations in travel-time anomalies within a group of events distributed over a sizable region of a dipping, high

Seasonal Modulation of Earthquake Swarm Activity Near Maupin, Oregon

Science.gov (United States)

Braunmiller, J.; Nabelek, J.; Trehu, A. M.

2012-12-01

Between December 2006 and November 2011, the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network (PNSN) reported 464 earthquakes in a swarm about 60 km east-southeast of Mt. Hood near the town of Maupin, Oregon. Relocation of forty-five MD≥2.5 earthquakes and regional moment tensor analysis of nine 3.3≤Mw≤3.9 earthquakes reveals a north-northwest trending, less than 1 km2 sized active fault patch on a 70° west dipping fault. At about 17 km depth, the swarm occurred at or close to the bottom of the seismogenic crust. The swarm's cumulative seismic moment release, equivalent to an Mw=4.4 earthquake, is not dominated by a single shock; it is rather mainly due to 20 MD≥3.0 events, which occurred throughout the swarm. The swarm started at the southern end and, during the first 18 months of activity, migrated to the northwest at a rate of about 1-2 m/d until reaching its northern terminus. A 10° fault bend, inferred from locations and fault plane solutions, acted as geometrical barrier that temporarily halted event migration in mid-2007 before continuing north in early 2008. The slow event migration points to a pore pressure diffusion process suggesting the swarm onset was triggered by fluid inflow into the fault zone. At 17 km depth, triggering by meteoritic water seems unlikely for a normal crustal permeability. The double couple source mechanisms preclude a magmatic intrusion at the depth of the earthquakes. However, fluids (or gases) associated with a deeper, though undocumented, magma injection beneath the Cascade Mountains, could trigger seismicity in a pre-stressed region when they have migrated upward and reached the seismogenic crust. Superimposed on overall swarm evolution, we found a statistically significant annual seismicity variation, which is likely surface driven. The annual seismicity peak during spring (March-May) coincides with the maximum snow load on the near-by Cascades. The load corresponds to a surface pressure variation of about 6 kPa, which likely

The Quanzhou large earthquake: environment impact and deep process

Science.gov (United States)

WANG, Y.; Gao*, R.; Ye, Z.; Wang, C.

2017-12-01

The Quanzhou earthquake is the largest earthquake in China's southeast coast in history. The ancient city of Quanzhou and its adjacent areas suffered serious damage. Analysis of the impact of Quanzhou earthquake on human activities, ecological environment and social development will provide an example for the research on environment and human interaction.According to historical records, on the night of December 29, 1604, a Ms 8.0 earthquake occurred in the sea area at the east of Quanzhou (25.0°N, 119.5°E) with a focal depth of 25 kilometers. It affected to a maximum distance of 220 kilometers from the epicenter and caused serious damage. Quanzhou, which has been known as one of the world's largest trade ports during Song and Yuan periods was heavily destroyed by this earthquake. The destruction of the ancient city was very serious and widespread. The city wall collapsed in Putian, Nanan, Tongan and other places. The East and West Towers of Kaiyuan Temple, which are famous with magnificent architecture in history, were seriously destroyed.Therefore, an enormous earthquake can exert devastating effects on human activities and social development in the history. It is estimated that a more than Ms. 5.0 earthquake in the economically developed coastal areas in China can directly cause economic losses for more than one hundred million yuan. This devastating large earthquake that severely destroyed the Quanzhou city was triggered under a tectonic-extensional circumstance. In this coastal area of the Fujian Province, the crust gradually thins eastward from inland to coast (less than 29 km thick crust beneath the coast), the lithosphere is also rather thin (60 70 km), and the Poisson's ratio of the crust here appears relatively high. The historical Quanzhou Earthquake was probably correlated with the NE-striking Littoral Fault Zone, which is characterized by right-lateral slip and exhibiting the most active seismicity in the coastal area of Fujian. Meanwhile, tectonic

Earthquakes as Expressions of Tectonic Activity

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Sources, Types and Examples. Kusala Rajendran ... Science, Bangalore. Her research interests are mostly ... ogy, and some highlights on Indian earthquakes studies, and ..... jects, I did Applied Geophysics from the University of Roorkee.

1 Comparison of Earthquake Source Characteristics in the Kachchh ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

42

Empirical relations for Mo versus fc, Mo versus r, and Mo versus ∆σ, for both KRB and SH regions, were obtained by least square fitting (Figures 9a-d, Equations 13–21). For the KRB, these relationships are obtained for different sets of magnitude ranges viz., for Mw 1.5-3.8 and ...... International Handbook of Earthquake.

Aftershocks of the 13 May 1993 Shumagin Alaska earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Zhong; Wyss, Max; Tytgat, Guy; McNutt, Steve; Stihler, Scott

1994-01-01

The 13 May 1993 Ms 6.9 Shumagin earthquake had an aftershock sequence of 247 earthquakes with magnitudes greater than or equal to 1.5 by 1 June 1993. Of these aftershocks, 79 were located by using S-P travel times at the only two stations within 570 km of the mainshock epicenter. The rupture area inferred from the aftershocks is about 600 km2 and we estimate for the mainshock a mean fault displacement of 1.0 m and a 28 bar stress drop. The magnitude-frequency plots give a b-value for the aftershock sequence of about 0.4, which is low compared to the background value of approximately 0.8. The decay of the aftershock sequence followed the modified Omori law with a p-value of 0.79, which is also lower than the typical values of about 1.1 observed in Alaska. Both of these facts can be interpreted as indicating relatively high ambient stress in the Shumagin seismic gap and the possibility that the 13 May earthquake was a foreshock to a larger gap-filling event to occur within the next few years.

Common Observations for Near-Source Ground Motions and Seismo-Traveling Ionosphere Disturbances Following the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake, Japan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bor-Shouh Huang

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The time history and spatial dependence of seismic-wave propagation on the ground surface and through the ionosphere following the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake were reconstructed from dense seismic networks and from Global Positioning System (GPS array observations, respectively. Using total electron content (TEC data recorded by a dense GPS receiver network, the near-source ionosphere perturbations induced by this giant earthquake were analyzed and high-resolution images of seismic-wave propagation in the ionosphere are presented. Similar spatial images of ground motions were reconstructed from observations by a dense seismic array. Observations of this event provide, for the first time, the opportunity to compare near-source ground motions with the near-field seismo-traveling ionosphere disturbance (STID excited by the ground motions. Based on the results, the nature of the source rupture and seismic-wave propagation are discussed. Both seismic and ionosphere observations indicate that seismic energy propagated radially outward initially from the hypocenter, but that the circular shape of the propagation front became gradually distorted as the source rupture became extended. Coherent wavefronts from the two analyses show contrasting patterns during the later stage of propagation, possibly due to different patterns of spatial variations in the physical properties of the solid earth and of the ionosphere.

Rapid earthquake hazard and loss assessment for Euro-Mediterranean region

Science.gov (United States)

Erdik, Mustafa; Sesetyan, Karin; Demircioglu, Mine; Hancilar, Ufuk; Zulfikar, Can; Cakti, Eser; Kamer, Yaver; Yenidogan, Cem; Tuzun, Cuneyt; Cagnan, Zehra; Harmandar, Ebru

2010-10-01

The almost-real time estimation of ground shaking and losses after a major earthquake in the Euro-Mediterranean region was performed in the framework of the Joint Research Activity 3 (JRA-3) component of the EU FP6 Project entitled "Network of Research Infra-structures for European Seismology, NERIES". This project consists of finding the most likely location of the earthquake source by estimating the fault rupture parameters on the basis of rapid inversion of data from on-line regional broadband stations. It also includes an estimation of the spatial distribution of selected site-specific ground motion parameters at engineering bedrock through region-specific ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) or physical simulation of ground motion. By using the Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine (ELER) software, the multi-level methodology developed for real time estimation of losses is capable of incorporating regional variability and sources of uncertainty stemming from GMPEs, fault finiteness, site modifications, inventory of physical and social elements subjected to earthquake hazard and the associated vulnerability relationships.

Evidence for Truncated Exponential Probability Distribution of Earthquake Slip

KAUST Repository

Thingbaijam, Kiran Kumar; Mai, Paul Martin

2016-01-01

Earthquake ruptures comprise spatially varying slip on the fault surface, where slip represents the displacement discontinuity between the two sides of the rupture plane. In this study, we analyze the probability distribution of coseismic slip, which provides important information to better understand earthquake source physics. Although the probability distribution of slip is crucial for generating realistic rupture scenarios for simulation-based seismic and tsunami-hazard analysis, the statistical properties of earthquake slip have received limited attention so far. Here, we use the online database of earthquake source models (SRCMOD) to show that the probability distribution of slip follows the truncated exponential law. This law agrees with rupture-specific physical constraints limiting the maximum possible slip on the fault, similar to physical constraints on maximum earthquake magnitudes.We show the parameters of the best-fitting truncated exponential distribution scale with average coseismic slip. This scaling property reflects the control of the underlying stress distribution and fault strength on the rupture dimensions, which determines the average slip. Thus, the scale-dependent behavior of slip heterogeneity is captured by the probability distribution of slip. We conclude that the truncated exponential law accurately quantifies coseismic slip distribution and therefore allows for more realistic modeling of rupture scenarios. © 2016, Seismological Society of America. All rights reserverd.

Evidence for Truncated Exponential Probability Distribution of Earthquake Slip

KAUST Repository

Thingbaijam, Kiran K. S.

2016-07-13

Earthquake ruptures comprise spatially varying slip on the fault surface, where slip represents the displacement discontinuity between the two sides of the rupture plane. In this study, we analyze the probability distribution of coseismic slip, which provides important information to better understand earthquake source physics. Although the probability distribution of slip is crucial for generating realistic rupture scenarios for simulation-based seismic and tsunami-hazard analysis, the statistical properties of earthquake slip have received limited attention so far. Here, we use the online database of earthquake source models (SRCMOD) to show that the probability distribution of slip follows the truncated exponential law. This law agrees with rupture-specific physical constraints limiting the maximum possible slip on the fault, similar to physical constraints on maximum earthquake magnitudes.We show the parameters of the best-fitting truncated exponential distribution scale with average coseismic slip. This scaling property reflects the control of the underlying stress distribution and fault strength on the rupture dimensions, which determines the average slip. Thus, the scale-dependent behavior of slip heterogeneity is captured by the probability distribution of slip. We conclude that the truncated exponential law accurately quantifies coseismic slip distribution and therefore allows for more realistic modeling of rupture scenarios. © 2016, Seismological Society of America. All rights reserverd.

Earthquake forecasting studies using radon time series data in Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Walia, Vivek; Kumar, Arvind; Fu, Ching-Chou; Lin, Shih-Jung; Chou, Kuang-Wu; Wen, Kuo-Liang; Chen, Cheng-Hong

2017-04-01

For few decades, growing number of studies have shown usefulness of data in the field of seismogeochemistry interpreted as geochemical precursory signals for impending earthquakes and radon is idendified to be as one of the most reliable geochemical precursor. Radon is recognized as short-term precursor and is being monitored in many countries. This study is aimed at developing an effective earthquake forecasting system by inspecting long term radon time series data. The data is obtained from a network of radon monitoring stations eastblished along different faults of Taiwan. The continuous time series radon data for earthquake studies have been recorded and some significant variations associated with strong earthquakes have been observed. The data is also examined to evaluate earthquake precursory signals against environmental factors. An automated real-time database operating system has been developed recently to improve the data processing for earthquake precursory studies. In addition, the study is aimed at the appraisal and filtrations of these environmental parameters, in order to create a real-time database that helps our earthquake precursory study. In recent years, automatic operating real-time database has been developed using R, an open source programming language, to carry out statistical computation on the data. To integrate our data with our working procedure, we use the popular and famous open source web application solution, AMP (Apache, MySQL, and PHP), creating a website that could effectively show and help us manage the real-time database.

Observing earthquakes triggered in the near field by dynamic deformations

Science.gov (United States)

Gomberg, J.; Bodin, P.; Reasenberg, P.A.

2003-01-01

We examine the hypothesis that dynamic deformations associated with seismic waves trigger earthquakes in many tectonic environments. Our analysis focuses on seismicity at close range (within the aftershock zone), complementing published studies of long-range triggering. Our results suggest that dynamic triggering is not confined to remote distances or to geothermal and volcanic regions. Long unilaterally propagating ruptures may focus radiated dynamic deformations in the propagation direction. Therefore, we expect seismicity triggered dynamically by a directive rupture to occur asymmetrically, with a majority of triggered earthquakes in the direction of rupture propagation. Bilaterally propagating ruptures also may be directive, and we propose simple criteria for assessing their directivity. We compare the inferred rupture direction and observed seismicity rate change following 15 earthquakes (M 5.7 to M 8.1) that occured in California and Idaho in the United States, the Gulf of Aqaba, Syria, Guatemala, China, New Guinea, Turkey, Japan, Mexico, and Antarctica. Nine of these mainshocks had clearly directive, unilateral ruptures. Of these nine, seven apparently induced an asymmetric increase in seismicity rate that correlates with the rupture direction. The two exceptions include an earthquake preceded by a comparable-magnitude event on a conjugate fault and another for which data limitations prohibited conclusive results. Similar (but weaker) correlations were found for the bilaterally rupturing earthquakes we studied. Although the static stress change also may trigger seismicity, it and the seismicity it triggers are expected to be similarly asymmetric only if the final slip is skewed toward the rupture terminus. For several of the directive earthquakes, we suggest that the seismicity rate change correlates better with the dynamic stress field than the static stress change.

Quantitative Earthquake Prediction on Global and Regional Scales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kossobokov, Vladimir G.

2006-01-01

The Earth is a hierarchy of volumes of different size. Driven by planetary convection these volumes are involved into joint and relative movement. The movement is controlled by a wide variety of processes on and around the fractal mesh of boundary zones, and does produce earthquakes. This hierarchy of movable volumes composes a large non-linear dynamical system. Prediction of such a system in a sense of extrapolation of trajectory into the future is futile. However, upon coarse-graining the integral empirical regularities emerge opening possibilities of prediction in a sense of the commonly accepted consensus definition worked out in 1976 by the US National Research Council. Implications of the understanding hierarchical nature of lithosphere and its dynamics based on systematic monitoring and evidence of its unified space-energy similarity at different scales help avoiding basic errors in earthquake prediction claims. They suggest rules and recipes of adequate earthquake prediction classification, comparison and optimization. The approach has already led to the design of reproducible intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction technique. Its real-time testing aimed at prediction of the largest earthquakes worldwide has proved beyond any reasonable doubt the effectiveness of practical earthquake forecasting. In the first approximation, the accuracy is about 1-5 years and 5-10 times the anticipated source dimension. Further analysis allows reducing spatial uncertainty down to 1-3 source dimensions, although at a cost of additional failures-to-predict. Despite of limited accuracy a considerable damage could be prevented by timely knowledgeable use of the existing predictions and earthquake prediction strategies. The December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean Disaster seems to be the first indication that the methodology, designed for prediction of M8.0+ earthquakes can be rescaled for prediction of both smaller magnitude earthquakes (e.g., down to M5.5+ in Italy) and

Quantitative Earthquake Prediction on Global and Regional Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Kossobokov, Vladimir G.

2006-03-01

The Earth is a hierarchy of volumes of different size. Driven by planetary convection these volumes are involved into joint and relative movement. The movement is controlled by a wide variety of processes on and around the fractal mesh of boundary zones, and does produce earthquakes. This hierarchy of movable volumes composes a large non-linear dynamical system. Prediction of such a system in a sense of extrapolation of trajectory into the future is futile. However, upon coarse-graining the integral empirical regularities emerge opening possibilities of prediction in a sense of the commonly accepted consensus definition worked out in 1976 by the US National Research Council. Implications of the understanding hierarchical nature of lithosphere and its dynamics based on systematic monitoring and evidence of its unified space-energy similarity at different scales help avoiding basic errors in earthquake prediction claims. They suggest rules and recipes of adequate earthquake prediction classification, comparison and optimization. The approach has already led to the design of reproducible intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction technique. Its real-time testing aimed at prediction of the largest earthquakes worldwide has proved beyond any reasonable doubt the effectiveness of practical earthquake forecasting. In the first approximation, the accuracy is about 1-5 years and 5-10 times the anticipated source dimension. Further analysis allows reducing spatial uncertainty down to 1-3 source dimensions, although at a cost of additional failures-to-predict. Despite of limited accuracy a considerable damage could be prevented by timely knowledgeable use of the existing predictions and earthquake prediction strategies. The December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean Disaster seems to be the first indication that the methodology, designed for prediction of M8.0+ earthquakes can be rescaled for prediction of both smaller magnitude earthquakes (e.g., down to M5.5+ in Italy) and

Transpressional rupture of an unmapped fault during the 2010 Haiti earthquake

KAUST Repository

Calais, Éric

2010-10-24

On 12 January 2010, a Mw7.0 earthquake struck the Port-au-Prince region of Haiti. The disaster killed more than 200,000 people and caused an estimated $8 billion in damages, about 100% of the country?s gross domestic product. The earthquake was initially thought to have ruptured the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault of the southern peninsula of Haiti, which is one of two main strike-slip faults inferred to accommodate the 2cmyr -1 relative motion between the Caribbean and North American plates. Here we use global positioning system and radar interferometry measurements of ground motion to show that the earthquake involved a combination of horizontal and contractional slip, causing transpressional motion. This result is consistent with the long-term pattern of strain accumulation in Hispaniola. The unexpected contractional deformation caused by the earthquake and by the pattern of strain accumulation indicates present activity on faults other than the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault. We show that the earthquake instead ruptured an unmapped north-dipping fault, called the Léogâne fault. The Léogâne fault lies subparallel tog-but is different fromg-the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault. We suggest that the 2010 earthquake may have activated the southernmost front of the Haitian fold-and-thrust belt as it abuts against the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault. As the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault did not release any significant accumulated elastic strain, it remains a significant seismic threat for Haiti and for Port-au-Prince in particular. © 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Transpressional rupture of an unmapped fault during the 2010 Haiti earthquake

KAUST Repository

Calais, É ric; Freed, Andrew M.; Mattioli, Glen S.; Amelung, Falk; Jonsson, Sigurjon; Jansma, Pamela E.; Hong, Sanghoon; Dixon, Timothy H.; Pré petit, Claude; Momplaisir, Roberte

2010-01-01

On 12 January 2010, a Mw7.0 earthquake struck the Port-au-Prince region of Haiti. The disaster killed more than 200,000 people and caused an estimated $8 billion in damages, about 100% of the country?s gross domestic product. The earthquake was initially thought to have ruptured the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault of the southern peninsula of Haiti, which is one of two main strike-slip faults inferred to accommodate the 2cmyr -1 relative motion between the Caribbean and North American plates. Here we use global positioning system and radar interferometry measurements of ground motion to show that the earthquake involved a combination of horizontal and contractional slip, causing transpressional motion. This result is consistent with the long-term pattern of strain accumulation in Hispaniola. The unexpected contractional deformation caused by the earthquake and by the pattern of strain accumulation indicates present activity on faults other than the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault. We show that the earthquake instead ruptured an unmapped north-dipping fault, called the Léogâne fault. The Léogâne fault lies subparallel tog-but is different fromg-the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault. We suggest that the 2010 earthquake may have activated the southernmost front of the Haitian fold-and-thrust belt as it abuts against the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault. As the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault did not release any significant accumulated elastic strain, it remains a significant seismic threat for Haiti and for Port-au-Prince in particular. © 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Visible Earthquakes: a web-based tool for visualizing and modeling InSAR earthquake data

Science.gov (United States)

Funning, G. J.; Cockett, R.

2012-12-01

InSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) is a technique for measuring the deformation of the ground using satellite radar data. One of the principal applications of this method is in the study of earthquakes; in the past 20 years over 70 earthquakes have been studied in this way, and forthcoming satellite missions promise to enable the routine and timely study of events in the future. Despite the utility of the technique and its widespread adoption by the research community, InSAR does not feature in the teaching curricula of most university geoscience departments. This is, we believe, due to a lack of accessibility to software and data. Existing tools for the visualization and modeling of interferograms are often research-oriented, command line-based and/or prohibitively expensive. Here we present a new web-based interactive tool for comparing real InSAR data with simple elastic models. The overall design of this tool was focused on ease of access and use. This tool should allow interested nonspecialists to gain a feel for the use of such data and greatly facilitate integration of InSAR into upper division geoscience courses, giving students practice in comparing actual data to modeled results. The tool, provisionally named 'Visible Earthquakes', uses web-based technologies to instantly render the displacement field that would be observable using InSAR for a given fault location, geometry, orientation, and slip. The user can adjust these 'source parameters' using a simple, clickable interface, and see how these affect the resulting model interferogram. By visually matching the model interferogram to a real earthquake interferogram (processed separately and included in the web tool) a user can produce their own estimates of the earthquake's source parameters. Once satisfied with the fit of their models, users can submit their results and see how they compare with the distribution of all other contributed earthquake models, as well as the mean and median

Responses of a 58-story RC dual core shear wall and outrigger frame building inferred from two earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Çelebi, Mehmet

2016-01-01

Responses of a dual core shear-wall and outrigger-framed 58-story building recorded during the Mw6.0 Napa earthquake of 24 August 2014 and the Mw3.8 Berkeley earthquake of 20 October 2011 are used to identify its dynamic characteristics and behavior. Fundamental frequencies are 0.28 Hz (NS), 0.25 Hz (EW), and 0.43 Hz (torsional). Rigid body motions due to rocking are not significant. Average drift ratios are small. Outrigger frames do not affect average drift ratios or mode shapes. Local site effects do not affect the response; however, response associated with deeper structure may be substantial. A beating effect is observed from data of both earthquakes but beating periods are not consistent. Low critical damping ratios may have contributed to the beating effect. Torsion is relatively larger above outriggers as indicated by the time-histories of motions at the roof, possibly due to the discontinuity of the stiffer shear walls above level 47.

Seismogeodesy for rapid earthquake and tsunami characterization

Science.gov (United States)

Bock, Y.

2016-12-01

Rapid estimation of earthquake magnitude and fault mechanism is critical for earthquake and tsunami warning systems. Traditionally, the monitoring of earthquakes and tsunamis has been based on seismic networks for estimating earthquake magnitude and slip, and tide gauges and deep-ocean buoys for direct measurement of tsunami waves. These methods are well developed for ocean basin-wide warnings but are not timely enough to protect vulnerable populations and infrastructure from the effects of local tsunamis, where waves may arrive within 15-30 minutes of earthquake onset time. Direct measurements of displacements by GPS networks at subduction zones allow for rapid magnitude and slip estimation in the near-source region, that are not affected by instrumental limitations and magnitude saturation experienced by local seismic networks. However, GPS displacements by themselves are too noisy for strict earthquake early warning (P-wave detection). Optimally combining high-rate GPS and seismic data (in particular, accelerometers that do not clip), referred to as seismogeodesy, provides a broadband instrument that does not clip in the near field, is impervious to magnitude saturation, and provides accurate real-time static and dynamic displacements and velocities in real time. Here we describe a NASA-funded effort to integrate GPS and seismogeodetic observations as part of NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii. It consists of a series of plug-in modules that allow for a hierarchy of rapid seismogeodetic products, including automatic P-wave picking, hypocenter estimation, S-wave prediction, magnitude scaling relationships based on P-wave amplitude (Pd) and peak ground displacement (PGD), finite-source CMT solutions and fault slip models as input for tsunami warnings and models. For the NOAA/NASA project, the modules are being integrated into an existing USGS Earthworm environment, currently limited to traditional seismic data. We are focused on a network of

Antarctic icequakes triggered by the 2010 Maule earthquake in Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Zhigang; Walter, Jacob I.; Aster, Richard C.; Nyblade, Andrew; Wiens, Douglas A.; Anandakrishnan, Sridhar

2014-09-01

Seismic waves from distant, large earthquakes can almost instantaneously trigger shallow micro-earthquakes and deep tectonic tremor as they pass through Earth's crust. Such remotely triggered seismic activity mostly occurs in tectonically active regions. Triggered seismicity is generally considered to reflect shear failure on critically stressed fault planes and is thought to be driven by dynamic stress perturbations from both Love and Rayleigh types of surface seismic wave. Here we analyse seismic data from Antarctica in the six hours leading up to and following the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake in Chile. We identify many high-frequency seismic signals during the passage of the Rayleigh waves generated by the Maule earthquake, and interpret them as small icequakes triggered by the Rayleigh waves. The source locations of these triggered icequakes are difficult to determine owing to sparse seismic network coverage, but the triggered events generate surface waves, so are probably formed by near-surface sources. Our observations are consistent with tensile fracturing of near-surface ice or other brittle fracture events caused by changes in volumetric strain as the high-amplitude Rayleigh waves passed through. We conclude that cryospheric systems can be sensitive to large distant earthquakes.

Surface Rupture Effects on Earthquake Moment-Area Scaling Relations

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Yingdi; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Miyakoshi, Ken; Irikura, Kojiro

2017-09-01

Empirical earthquake scaling relations play a central role in fundamental studies of earthquake physics and in current practice of earthquake hazard assessment, and are being refined by advances in earthquake source analysis. A scaling relation between seismic moment ( M 0) and rupture area ( A) currently in use for ground motion prediction in Japan features a transition regime of the form M 0- A 2, between the well-recognized small (self-similar) and very large (W-model) earthquake regimes, which has counter-intuitive attributes and uncertain theoretical underpinnings. Here, we investigate the mechanical origin of this transition regime via earthquake cycle simulations, analytical dislocation models and numerical crack models on strike-slip faults. We find that, even if stress drop is assumed constant, the properties of the transition regime are controlled by surface rupture effects, comprising an effective rupture elongation along-dip due to a mirror effect and systematic changes of the shape factor relating slip to stress drop. Based on this physical insight, we propose a simplified formula to account for these effects in M 0- A scaling relations for strike-slip earthquakes.

Coastal subsidence in Oregon, USA during the giant Cascadia earthquake of AD 1700

Science.gov (United States)

Hawkes, A.D.; Horton, B.P.; Nelson, A.R.; Vane, C.H.; Sawai, Y.

2011-01-01

Quantitative estimates of land-level change during the giant AD 1700 Cascadia earthquake along the Oregon coast are inferred from relative sea-level changes reconstructed from fossil foraminiferal assemblages preserved within the stratigraphic record. A transfer function, based upon a regional training set of modern sediment samples from Oregon estuaries, is calibrated to fossil assemblages in sequences of samples across buried peat-mud and peat-sand contacts marking the AD 1700 earthquake. Reconstructions of sample elevations with sample-specific errors estimate the amount of coastal subsidence during the earthquake at six sites along 400 km of coast. The elevation estimates are supported by lithological, carbon isotope, and faunal tidal zonation data. Coseismic subsidence at Nehalem River, Nestucca River, Salmon River, Alsea Bay, Siuslaw River and South Slough varies between 0.18 m and 0.85 m with errors between 0.18 m and 0.32 m. These subsidence estimates are more precise, consistent, and generally lower than previous semi-quantitative estimates. Following earlier comparisons of semi-quantitative subsidence estimates with elastic dislocation models of megathrust rupture during great earthquakes, our lower estimates for central and northern Oregon are consistent with modeled rates of strain accumulation and amounts of slip on the subduction megathrust, and thus, with a magnitude of 9 for the AD 1700 earthquake.

Period-dependent source rupture behavior of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake estimated by multi period-band Bayesian waveform inversion

Science.gov (United States)

Kubo, H.; Asano, K.; Iwata, T.; Aoi, S.

2014-12-01

Previous studies for the period-dependent source characteristics of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (e.g., Koper et al., 2011; Lay et al., 2012) were based on the short and long period source models using different method. Kubo et al. (2013) obtained source models of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake using multi period-bands waveform data by a common inversion method and discussed its period-dependent source characteristics. In this study, to achieve more in detail spatiotemporal source rupture behavior of this event, we introduce a new fault surface model having finer sub-fault size and estimate the source models in multi period-bands using a Bayesian inversion method combined with a multi-time-window method. Three components of velocity waveforms at 25 stations of K-NET, KiK-net, and F-net of NIED are used in this analysis. The target period band is 10-100 s. We divide this period band into three period bands (10-25 s, 25-50 s, and 50-100 s) and estimate a kinematic source model in each period band using a Bayesian inversion method with MCMC sampling (e.g., Fukuda & Johnson, 2008; Minson et al., 2013, 2014). The parameterization of spatiotemporal slip distribution follows the multi-time-window method (Hartzell & Heaton, 1983). The Green's functions are calculated by the 3D FDM (GMS; Aoi & Fujiwara, 1999) using a 3D velocity structure model (JIVSM; Koketsu et al., 2012). The assumed fault surface model is based on the Pacific plate boundary of JIVSM and is divided into 384 subfaults of about 16 * 16 km^2. The estimated source models in multi period-bands show the following source image: (1) First deep rupture off Miyagi at 0-60 s toward down-dip mostly radiating relatively short period (10-25 s) seismic waves. (2) Shallow rupture off Miyagi at 45-90 s toward up-dip with long duration radiating long period (50-100 s) seismic wave. (3) Second deep rupture off Miyagi at 60-105 s toward down-dip radiating longer period seismic waves then that of the first deep rupture. (4) Deep

Modified-Fibonacci-Dual-Lucas method for earthquake prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Boucouvalas, A. C.; Gkasios, M.; Tselikas, N. T.; Drakatos, G.

2015-06-01

The FDL method makes use of Fibonacci, Dual and Lucas numbers and has shown considerable success in predicting earthquake events locally as well as globally. Predicting the location of the epicenter of an earthquake is one difficult challenge the other being the timing and magnitude. One technique for predicting the onset of earthquakes is the use of cycles, and the discovery of periodicity. Part of this category is the reported FDL method. The basis of the reported FDL method is the creation of FDL future dates based on the onset date of significant earthquakes. The assumption being that each occurred earthquake discontinuity can be thought of as a generating source of FDL time series The connection between past earthquakes and future earthquakes based on FDL numbers has also been reported with sample earthquakes since 1900. Using clustering methods it has been shown that significant earthquakes (conjunct Sun, Moon opposite Sun, Moon conjunct or opposite North or South Modes. In order to test improvement of the method we used all +8R earthquakes recorded since 1900, (86 earthquakes from USGS data). We have developed the FDL numbers for each of those seeds, and examined the earthquake hit rates (for a window of 3, i.e. +-1 day of target date) and for <6.5R. The successes are counted for each one of the 86 earthquake seeds and we compare the MFDL method with the FDL method. In every case we find improvement when the starting seed date is on the planetary trigger date prior to the earthquake. We observe no improvement only when a planetary trigger coincided with the earthquake date and in this case the FDL method coincides with the MFDL. Based on the MDFL method we present the prediction method capable of predicting global events or localized earthquakes and we will discuss the accuracy of the method in as far as the prediction and location parts of the method. We show example calendar style predictions for global events as well as for the Greek region using

Investigation of the ULF electromagnetic phenomena related to earthquakes. Contemporary achievements and the perspectives

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kopytenko, Y.; Ismagilov, V. [SPbF Izmiran, St. Petersbourg (Russian Federation); Hayakawa, M [The University of Electro-Communications, Chofu, Tokyo (Japan); Smirnova, N.; Troyan, V. [St. Petersbourg Univ., St Petersbourg (Russian Federation). Inst. of Physics; Peterson, T. [TFPLAB, Cleveland, OH (United States)

2001-04-01

The results of ULF electromagnetic signal observations in seismoactive regions prior to earthquakes are presented and discussed. The new differential measurement technique developed in SPbF IZMIRAN for location of the ULF emission sources of space and lithosphere origin is described. The MVC-2DS geohphysical instrumentation is introduced as a promising tool for registration of ULF signals related to earthquakes (both seismic and electromagnetic ones). Methods are proposed for ULF data processing to investigate the preparation processes in the earthquake source regions and to distinguish seismogenic signals. on the background of space pulsations. Some examples of application of those methods for study of the earthquake precursory signatures are presented. Perspectives of seismo-electromagnetic tomography experiments in seismoactive regions, using MVC-2DS technique, are discussed in relation to the development of earthquake prediction methods.

Investigation of Pre-Earthquake Ionospheric Disturbances by 3D Tomographic Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Yagmur, M.

2016-12-01