Sample records for earthquake sources inferences

  1. Variability of dynamic source parameters inferred from kinematic models of past earthquakes

    KAUST Repository

    Causse, M.


    We analyse the scaling and distribution of average dynamic source properties (fracture energy, static, dynamic and apparent stress drops) using 31 kinematic inversion models from 21 crustal earthquakes. Shear-stress histories are computed by solving the elastodynamic equations while imposing the slip velocity of a kinematic source model as a boundary condition on the fault plane. This is achieved using a 3-D finite difference method in which the rupture kinematics are modelled with the staggered-grid-split-node fault representation method of Dalguer & Day. Dynamic parameters are then estimated from the calculated stress-slip curves and averaged over the fault plane. Our results indicate that fracture energy, static, dynamic and apparent stress drops tend to increase with magnitude. The epistemic uncertainty due to uncertainties in kinematic inversions remains small (ϕ ∼ 0.1 in log10 units), showing that kinematic source models provide robust information to analyse the distribution of average dynamic source parameters. The proposed scaling relations may be useful to constrain friction law parameters in spontaneous dynamic rupture calculations for earthquake source studies, and physics-based near-source ground-motion prediction for seismic hazard and risk mitigation.

  2. Tsunami source of the 2016 Muisne, Ecuador Earthquake inferred from tide gauge and DART records (United States)

    Adriano, B.; Fujii, Y.; Koshimura, S.


    On April 16, 2016 an earthquake occurred in the central coast of Ecuador (0.382°N 79.922°W, Mw=7.8 at 23:58:36.980 UTC according to U.S. Geological Service). It was reported that widespread damage occurred at several towns of Monabi coastal province. According to reports from the Ecuador Government, more than 15,000 buildings were damaged. This earthquake generated a relatively small tsunami that was detected at several tide gauge station as well as offshore DARTs (Deep Ocean Tsunami Detection Buoys). This study aims to investigate the tsunami source of the 2016 Muisne Earthquake using inversion of recorded tsunami waveform signals. The INOCAR (Instituto Oceanográfico de la Armada in Spanish) of the Ecuador provided the tide records of Esmeraldas, Manta, and La Libertad ports. In addition, the DIMAR (Dirección General Marítima in Spanish) of Colombia provided the tide record of Tumaco port. Finally, waveform signal from two DARTs were also employed. These waveform records usually include ocean tides, which we removed by applying a high-pass filter. To estimate the extent of the tsunami source and the slip distribution, we divide the tsunami source into 4 subfaults that covers the aftershock area during one month after the mainshock. The subfault size is 30 km x 60 km with a top depth of 10 km. The focal mechanisms for all the subfaults were taken form the USGS solution of the mainshock. The inversion result showed that the largest slip was located around the epicenter with a maximum value of 3.1 m. The estimated moment magnitude was calculated as Mw=7.78 (5.89E+20 N-m), which is slightly smaller than the proposed by USGS (Mw7.8, moment 7.05E+20 N-m). The estimated slip distribution suggested that the fault rupture started near the epicenter and propagated from north to south. This evidence is supported by the aftershock distribution, which is higher to the south of the epicenter with a main aftershock of Mw=6.0 on April 22.

  3. Fault location and source process of the Boumerdes, Algeria, earthquake inferred from geodetic and strong motion data (United States)

    Semmane, Fethi; Campillo, Michel; Cotton, Fabrice


    The Boumerdes earthquake occurred on a fault whose precise location, offshore the Algerian coast, was unknown. Geodetic data are used to determine the absolute position of the fault. The fault might emerge at about 15 km offshore. Accelerograms are used to infer the space-time history of the rupture using a two-step inversion in the spectral domain. The observed strong motion records agree with the synthetics for the fault location inferred from geodetic data. The fault plane ruptured for about 18 seconds. The slip distribution on the fault indicates one asperity northwest of the hypocenter with maximum slip amplitude about 3 m. This asperity is probably responsible for most of the damage. Another asperity with slightly smaller slip amplitude is located southeast of the hypocenter. The rupture stops its westward propagation close to the Thenia fault, a structure almost perpendicular to the main fault.

  4. Fault location and source process of the 2003 Boumerdes, Algeria, earthquake inferred from geodetic and strong motion data. (United States)

    Semmane, F.; Campillo, M.; Cotton, F.


    The Boumerdes earthquake occurred on a fault which precise location, offshore the algerian coast, was unknown. Geodetic data consist of GPS measurements, levelling points and coastal uplifts. They are first used to determine the absolute position of the fault. We performed a series of inversions assuming different positions and chose the model giving the smallest misfit. According to this analysis, the fault emerge at about 15 km offshore. Accelerograms are then used to infer the space-time history of rupture on the fault plane using a two-step inversion in the spectral domain. The observed strong motion records are in good agreement with the synthetics for the fault location inferred from geodetic data. The fault plane ruptured for about 16 seconds. The slip distribution on the fault indicates one asperity north-west of the hypocenter with a maximum slip amplitude larger than 2.5 m. Another asperity with slightly smaller slip amplitude is located south-east of the hypocenter. The rupture seems to stop its propagation westward when it encounters the Thenia fault, a structure almost perpendicular to the main fault. We computed the spatial distribution of ground motion predicted by this fault model and compared it with the observed damages.

  5. Inferences on the source mechanisms of the 1930 Irpinia (Southern Italy earthquake from simulations of the kinematic rupture process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Gorini


    Full Text Available We examine here a number of parameters that define the source of the earthquake that occurred on 23rd July 1930 in Southern Italy (in the Irpinia region. Starting from the source models proposed in different studies, we have simulated the acceleration field for each hypothesized model, and compared it with the macroseismic data. We then used the hybrid stochastic-deterministic technique proposed by Zollo et al. (1997 for the simulation of the ground motion associated with the rupture of an extended fault. The accelerations simulated for several sites were associated with the intensities using the empirical relationship proposed by Trifunac and Brady (1975, before being compared with the available data from the macroseismic catalogue. A good reproduction of the macroseismic field is provided by a normal fault striking in Apenninic direction (approximately NW-SE and dipping 55° toward the SW.

  6. Earthquake sources near Uturuncu Volcano (United States)

    Keyson, L.; West, M. E.


    Uturuncu, located in southern Bolivia near the Chile and Argentina border, is a dacitic volcano that was last active 270 ka. It is a part of the Altiplano-Puna Volcanic Complex, which spans 50,000 km2 and is comprised of a series of ignimbrite flare-ups since ~23 ma. Two sets of evidence suggest that the region is underlain by a significant magma body. First, seismic velocities show a low velocity layer consistent with a magmatic sill below depths of 15-20 km. This inference is corroborated by high electrical conductivity between 10km and 30km. This magma body, the so called Altiplano-Puna Magma Body (APMB) is the likely source of volcanic activity in the region. InSAR studies show that during the 1990s, the volcano experienced an average uplift of about 1 to 2 cm per year. The deformation is consistent with an expanding source at depth. Though the Uturuncu region exhibits high rates of crustal seismicity, any connection between the inflation and the seismicity is unclear. We investigate the root causes of these earthquakes using a temporary network of 33 seismic stations - part of the PLUTONS project. Our primary approach is based on hypocenter locations and magnitudes paired with correlation-based relative relocation techniques. We find a strong tendency toward earthquake swarms that cluster in space and time. These swarms often last a few days and consist of numerous earthquakes with similar source mechanisms. Most seismicity occurs in the top 10 kilometers of the crust and is characterized by well-defined phase arrivals and significant high frequency content. The frequency-magnitude relationship of this seismicity demonstrates b-values consistent with tectonic sources. There is a strong clustering of earthquakes around the Uturuncu edifice. Earthquakes elsewhere in the region align in bands striking northwest-southeast consistent with regional stresses.

  7. Earthquake damage orientation to infer seismic parameters in archaeological sites and historical earthquakes (United States)

    Martín-González, Fidel


    Studies to provide information concerning seismic parameters and seismic sources of historical and archaeological seismic events are used to better evaluate the seismic hazard of a region. This is of especial interest when no surface rupture is recorded or the seismogenic fault cannot be identified. The orientation pattern of the earthquake damage (ED) (e.g., fallen columns, dropped key stones) that affected architectonic elements of cities after earthquakes has been traditionally used in historical and archaeoseismological studies to infer seismic parameters. However, in the literature depending on the authors, the parameters that can be obtained are contradictory (it has been proposed: the epicenter location, the orientation of the P-waves, the orientation of the compressional strain and the fault kinematics) and authors even question these relations with the earthquake damage. The earthquakes of Lorca in 2011, Christchurch in 2011 and Emilia Romagna in 2012 present an opportunity to measure systematically a large number and wide variety of earthquake damage in historical buildings (the same structures that are used in historical and archaeological studies). The damage pattern orientation has been compared with modern instrumental data, which is not possible in historical and archaeoseismological studies. From measurements and quantification of the orientation patterns in the studied earthquakes, it is observed that there is a systematic pattern of the earthquake damage orientation (EDO) in the proximity of the seismic source (fault trace) (earthquakes is normal to the fault trend (±15°). This orientation can be generated by a pulse of motion that in the near fault region has a distinguishable acceleration normal to the fault due to the polarization of the S-waves. Therefore, the earthquake damage orientation could be used to estimate the seismogenic fault trend of historical earthquakes studies where no instrumental data are available.

  8. Testing earthquake source inversion methodologies

    KAUST Repository

    Page, Morgan T.


    Source Inversion Validation Workshop; Palm Springs, California, 11-12 September 2010; Nowadays earthquake source inversions are routinely performed after large earthquakes and represent a key connection between recorded seismic and geodetic data and the complex rupture process at depth. The resulting earthquake source models quantify the spatiotemporal evolution of ruptures. They are also used to provide a rapid assessment of the severity of an earthquake and to estimate losses. However, because of uncertainties in the data, assumed fault geometry and velocity structure, and chosen rupture parameterization, it is not clear which features of these source models are robust. Improved understanding of the uncertainty and reliability of earthquake source inversions will allow the scientific community to use the robust features of kinematic inversions to more thoroughly investigate the complexity of the rupture process and to better constrain other earthquakerelated computations, such as ground motion simulations and static stress change calculations.

  9. Simultaneous estimation of earthquake source parameters and ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    stress drop values are quite large compared to the other similar size Indian intraplate earthquakes, which can be attributed ... Earthquake source parameters; crustal Q-value; simultaneous inversion; S-wave spectra; aftershocks. J. Earth Syst. Sci. ...... 28 1339–1342. Lee W H K and Valdes C M 1985 HYP071PC: A personal.

  10. Simultaneous estimation of earthquake source parameters and ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This paper presents the simultaneous estimation of source parameters and crustal Q values for small to moderate-size aftershocks ( 2.1–5.1) of the 7.7 2001 Bhuj earthquake. The horizontal-component S-waves of 144 well located earthquakes (2001–2010) recorded at 3–10 broadband seismograph sites in the ...

  11. Simultaneous estimation of earthquake source parameters and ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This paper presents the simultaneous estimation of source parameters and crustal Q values for small to moderate-size aftershocks (Mw 2.1–5.1) of the Mw 7.7 2001 Bhuj earthquake. The horizontal-component. S-waves of 144 well located earthquakes (2001–2010) recorded at 3–10 broadband seismograph sites in.

  12. Crowd-Sourced Global Earthquake Early Warning (United States)

    Minson, S. E.; Brooks, B. A.; Glennie, C. L.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Owen, S. E.; Iannucci, B. A.; Hauser, D. L.


    Although earthquake early warning (EEW) has shown great promise for reducing loss of life and property, it has only been implemented in a few regions due, in part, to the prohibitive cost of building the required dense seismic and geodetic networks. However, many cars and consumer smartphones, tablets, laptops, and similar devices contain low-cost versions of the same sensors used for earthquake monitoring. If a workable EEW system could be implemented based on either crowd-sourced observations from consumer devices or very inexpensive networks of instruments built from consumer-quality sensors, EEW coverage could potentially be expanded worldwide. Controlled tests of several accelerometers and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers typically found in consumer devices show that, while they are significantly noisier than scientific-grade instruments, they are still accurate enough to capture displacements from moderate and large magnitude earthquakes. The accuracy of these sensors varies greatly depending on the type of data collected. Raw coarse acquisition (C/A) code GPS data are relatively noisy. These observations have a surface displacement detection threshold approaching ~1 m and would thus only be useful in large Mw 8+ earthquakes. However, incorporating either satellite-based differential corrections or using a Kalman filter to combine the raw GNSS data with low-cost acceleration data (such as from a smartphone) decreases the noise dramatically. These approaches allow detection thresholds as low as 5 cm, potentially enabling accurate warnings for earthquakes as small as Mw 6.5. Simulated performance tests show that, with data contributed from only a very small fraction of the population, a crowd-sourced EEW system would be capable of warning San Francisco and San Jose of a Mw 7 rupture on California's Hayward fault and could have accurately issued both earthquake and tsunami warnings for the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake.

  13. Dynamic strains for earthquake source characterization (United States)

    Barbour, Andrew J.; Crowell, Brendan W


    Strainmeters measure elastodynamic deformation associated with earthquakes over a broad frequency band, with detection characteristics that complement traditional instrumentation, but they are commonly used to study slow transient deformation along active faults and at subduction zones, for example. Here, we analyze dynamic strains at Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) borehole strainmeters (BSM) associated with 146 local and regional earthquakes from 2004–2014, with magnitudes from M 4.5 to 7.2. We find that peak values in seismic strain can be predicted from a general regression against distance and magnitude, with improvements in accuracy gained by accounting for biases associated with site–station effects and source–path effects, the latter exhibiting the strongest influence on the regression coefficients. To account for the influence of these biases in a general way, we include crustal‐type classifications from the CRUST1.0 global velocity model, which demonstrates that high‐frequency strain data from the PBO BSM network carry information on crustal structure and fault mechanics: earthquakes nucleating offshore on the Blanco fracture zone, for example, generate consistently lower dynamic strains than earthquakes around the Sierra Nevada microplate and in the Salton trough. Finally, we test our dynamic strain prediction equations on the 2011 M 9 Tohoku‐Oki earthquake, specifically continuous strain records derived from triangulation of 137 high‐rate Global Navigation Satellite System Earth Observation Network stations in Japan. Moment magnitudes inferred from these data and the strain model are in agreement when Global Positioning System subnetworks are unaffected by spatial aliasing.

  14. Relating stick-slip friction experiments to earthquake source parameters (United States)

    McGarr, Arthur F.


    Analytical results for parameters, such as static stress drop, for stick-slip friction experiments, with arbitrary input parameters, can be determined by solving an energy-balance equation. These results can then be related to a given earthquake based on its seismic moment and the maximum slip within its rupture zone, assuming that the rupture process entails the same physics as stick-slip friction. This analysis yields overshoots and ratios of apparent stress to static stress drop of about 0.25. The inferred earthquake source parameters static stress drop, apparent stress, slip rate, and radiated energy are robust inasmuch as they are largely independent of the experimental parameters used in their estimation. Instead, these earthquake parameters depend on C, the ratio of maximum slip to the cube root of the seismic moment. C is controlled by the normal stress applied to the rupture plane and the difference between the static and dynamic coefficients of friction. Estimating yield stress and seismic efficiency using the same procedure is only possible when the actual static and dynamic coefficients of friction are known within the earthquake rupture zone.

  15. Bed Conditions Inferred from Basal Earthquakes Beneath the Whillans Ice Plain, West Antarctica (United States)

    Barcheck, C. G.; Boucher, C.; Schwartz, S. Y.; Tulaczyk, S. M.


    Seismicity near the bed of fast-moving ice streams informs our understanding of basal controls on fast ice flow and the nature of small scale sources of basal resistance to sliding (sticky spots). Small basal earthquakes (BEQs) occurring at or near the base of ice streams express the current dominant basal stress state and allow observation of bed heterogeneities on spatial scales of 10s to 100s m that are difficult to observe otherwise. Temporal changes in the source mechanisms of these BEQs indicate changing basal conditions, and comparison of basal seismicity with GPS-determined ice velocity allows insight into the interplay between seismically active small basal sticky spots and fast ice motion. We present unique highly local observations of BEQs occurring beneath the Whillans Ice Plain, in West Antarctica, from a network of 13 surface and borehole seismometers overlying the WIP stick-slip cycle high tide initiation area. We record seismicity only 100s-1000s of m from basal seismic sources. We compare the occurrence of these BEQs with co-located GPS observations of ice surface velocity. We detect BEQs by cross correlation, using a catalog of hand-picked events with seismic wave arrivals at multiple sites. We then locate each BEQ and determine source parameters by fitting the S wave spectra: moment magnitude, stress drop, and rupture area. The basal earthquakes occur in families of remarkably repeatable events. The time interval between subsequent events within a BEQ family typically depends on ice velocity, but there is a complex interplay between ice velocity and source parameters. We also search for temporal changes in BEQ source parameters and seek to relate these changes to ice velocity measurements, thereby inferring changing bed conditions. Our preferred interpretation is that BEQs are rupture at or near the surface of an over-consolidated till package, suggesting that changes in basal seismicity may directly indicate changing subglacial till conditions.

  16. An Investigation of the Accuracy of Coulomb Stress Changes Inferred From Geodetic Observations Following Subduction Zone Earthquakes (United States)

    Stressler, Bryan J.; Barnhart, William D.


    Earthquake clustering along plate boundaries suggests that earthquakes may interact, and static Coulomb stress change (CSC) is commonly invoked as one possible mechanism for stress transfer between earthquakes and nearby faults. Previous work has addressed the precision of CSC predictions that are influenced by observational noise, inversion regularization, and simplified modeling assumptions. Here we address the accuracy of CSC predictions informed by geodetic observations in subduction zones where inversion model resolution is poor. We conduct synthetic tests to quantify the degree to which the sign and magnitude of CSC can be reliably inferred from slip distributions inverted from various geodetic observations (interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), GPS, and seafloor observations). We find that in an idealized subduction zone, CSC can only be confidently inferred for receiver faults far (tens of kilometers) from the earthquake source, though this distance shortens with the addition of synthetic seafloor observations. We apply this methodology to the 2010 Mw8.8 Maule earthquake and identify 13 aftershocks from a population of 475 documented events for which we can confidently resolve coseismic stress changes. These results demonstrate that the low model resolution of fault slip inversions in subduction zones limits our ability to address fundamental questions about earthquake sources and stress interactions. Nonetheless, our results highlight that stress change predictions are considerably more accurate after the introduction of seafloor geodetic observations. Additionally, we show that InSAR observations are not required to substantially improve stress change approximations in regions where GPS may be the only viable observation, such as in island arcs settings.

  17. Repeated Earthquakes in the Vrancea Subcrustal Source and Source Scaling (United States)

    Popescu, Emilia; Otilia Placinta, Anica; Borleasnu, Felix; Radulian, Mircea


    The Vrancea seismic nest, located at the South-Eastern Carpathians Arc bend, in Romania, is a well-confined cluster of seismicity at intermediate depth (60 – 180 km). During the last 100 years four major shocks were recorded in the lithosphere body descending almost vertically beneath the Vrancea region: 10 November 1940 (Mw 7.7, depth 150 km), 4 March 1977 (Mw 7.4, depth 94 km), 30 August 1986 (Mw 7.1, depth 131 km) and a double shock on 30 and 31 May 1990 (Mw 6.9, depth 91 km and Mw 6.4, depth 87 km, respectively). The probability of repeated earthquakes in the Vrancea seismogenic volume is relatively large taking into account the high density of foci. The purpose of the present paper is to investigate source parameters and clustering properties for the repetitive earthquakes (located close each other) recorded in the Vrancea seismogenic subcrustal region. To this aim, we selected a set of earthquakes as templates for different co-located groups of events covering the entire depth range of active seismicity. For the identified clusters of repetitive earthquakes, we applied spectral ratios technique and empirical Green’s function deconvolution, in order to constrain as much as possible source parameters. Seismicity patterns of repeated earthquakes in space, time and size are investigated in order to detect potential interconnections with larger events. Specific scaling properties are analyzed as well. The present analysis represents a first attempt to provide a strategy for detecting and monitoring possible interconnections between different nodes of seismic activity and their role in modelling tectonic processes responsible for generating the major earthquakes in the Vrancea subcrustal seismogenic source.

  18. Source finiteness of large earthquakes measured from long-period Rayleigh waves (United States)

    Zhang, Jiajun; Kanamori, Hiroo


    The source-finiteness parameters of 11 large shallow earthquakes were determined from long-period Rayleigh waves recorded by the Global Digital Seismograph Network and International Deployment of Accelerometers Networks. The basic data sets are the seismic spectra of periods from 150 to 300 s. In the determination of source-process times, we used Furumoto's phase method and a linear inversion method, in which we simultaneously inverted the spectra and determined the source-process time that minimizes the error in the inversion. These two methods yielded consistent results. The source-process times of the Sumbawa (Indonesia), Colombia-Ecuador, Valparaiso (Chile) and Michoacan (Mexico) earthquakes were estimated to be 79, 118, 69 and 77 s, respectively, from the linear inversion method. The source-process times determined from long-period surface waves were in general longer than those obtained from body waves. Source finiteness of large shallow earthquakes with rupture on a fault plane with a large aspect ratio was modeled with the source-finiteness function introduced by Ben-Menahem. The spectra were inverted to find the extent and direction of the rupture of the earthquake that minimize the error in the inversion. For a rupture velocity of 2.5 km s -1, the estimated rupture was unilateral, 100 km long and along the strike, N26°W, for the May 26, 1983 Akita-Oki, Japan earthquake; 165 km and S57°E for the September 19, 1985 Michoacan, Mexico earthquake; 256 km and N31°E for the December 12, 1979 Colombia-Ecuador earthquake; and 149 km and S15°W for the March 3, 1985 Valparaiso, Chile earthquake. The results for the August 19, 1977 Sumbawa, Indonesia earthquake showed that the rupture was bilateral and in the direction N60°E. These results are, in general, consistent with the rupture extent inferred from the aftershock area of these earthquakes.

  19. Facilitating open global data use in earthquake source modelling to improve geodetic and seismological approaches (United States)

    Sudhaus, Henriette; Heimann, Sebastian; Steinberg, Andreas; Isken, Marius; Vasyura-Bathke, Hannes


    In the last few years impressive achievements have been made in improving inferences about earthquake sources by using InSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) data. Several factors aided these developments. The open data basis of earthquake observations has expanded vastly with the two powerful Sentinel-1 SAR sensors up in space. Increasing computer power allows processing of large data sets for more detailed source models. Moreover, data inversion approaches for earthquake source inferences are becoming more advanced. By now data error propagation is widely implemented and the estimation of model uncertainties is a regular feature of reported optimum earthquake source models. Also, more regularly InSAR-derived surface displacements and seismological waveforms are combined, which requires finite rupture models instead of point-source approximations and layered medium models instead of homogeneous half-spaces. In other words the disciplinary differences in geodetic and seismological earthquake source modelling shrink towards common source-medium descriptions and a source near-field/far-field data point of view. We explore and facilitate the combination of InSAR-derived near-field static surface displacement maps and dynamic far-field seismological waveform data for global earthquake source inferences. We join in the community efforts with the particular goal to improve crustal earthquake source inferences in generally not well instrumented areas, where often only the global backbone observations of earthquakes are available provided by seismological broadband sensor networks and, since recently, by Sentinel-1 SAR acquisitions. We present our work on modelling standards for the combination of static and dynamic surface displacements in the source's near-field and far-field, e.g. on data and prediction error estimations as well as model uncertainty estimation. Rectangular dislocations and moment-tensor point sources are exchanged by simple planar finite

  20. Deviant Earthquakes: Data-driven Constraints on the Variability in Earthquake Source Properties and Seismic Hazard


    Trugman, Daniel T


    The complexity of the earthquake rupture process makes earthquakes inherently unpredictable. Seismic hazard forecasts often presume that the rate of earthquake occurrence can be adequately modeled as a space-time homogenenous or stationary Poisson process and that the relation between the dynamical source properties of small and large earthquakes obey self-similar scaling relations. While these simplified models provide useful approximations and encapsulate the first-order statistical feature...

  1. Earthquake spectra and near-source attenuation in the Cascadia subduction zone (United States)

    Gomberg, J.; Creager, K.; Sweet, J.; Vidale, J.; Ghosh, A.; Hotovec, A.


    Models of seismic source displacement spectra are flat from zero to some corner frequency, fc, regardless of source type. At higher frequencies spectral models decay as f-1 for slow events and as f-2 for fast earthquakes. We show that at least in Cascadia, wave propagation effects likely control spectral decay rates above ˜2 Hz. We use seismograms from multiple small-aperture arrays to estimate the spectral decay rates of near-source spectra of 37 small `events' and find strong correlation between source location and decay rate. The decay rates (1) vary overall by an amount in excess of that inferred to distinguish slow sources from fast earthquakes, (2) are indistinguishable for sources separated by a few tens of km or less, and (3) separate into two populations that correlate with propagation through and outside a low-velocity zone imaged tomographically. We find that some events repeat, as is characteristic of low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs), but have spectra similar to those of non-repeating earthquakes. We also find no correlation between spectral decay rates and rates of ambient tremor activity. These results suggest that earthquakes near the plate boundary, at least in Cascadia, do not distinctly separate into `slow' and `fast' classes, and correctly accounting for propagation effects is necessary to characterize sources.

  2. Fully probabilistic earthquake source inversion on teleseismic scales (United States)

    Stähler, Simon; Sigloch, Karin


    Seismic source inversion is a non-linear problem in seismology where not just the earthquake parameters but also estimates of their uncertainties are of great practical importance. We have developed a method of fully Bayesian inference for source parameters, based on measurements of waveform cross-correlation between broadband, teleseismic body-wave observations and their modelled counterparts. This approach yields not only depth and moment tensor estimates but also source time functions. These unknowns are parameterised efficiently by harnessing as prior knowledge solutions from a large number of non-Bayesian inversions. The source time function is expressed as a weighted sum of a small number of empirical orthogonal functions, which were derived from a catalogue of >1000 source time functions (STFs) by a principal component analysis. We use a likelihood model based on the cross-correlation misfit between observed and predicted waveforms. The resulting ensemble of solutions provides full uncertainty and covariance information for the source parameters, and permits propagating these source uncertainties into travel time estimates used for seismic tomography. The computational effort is such that routine, global estimation of earthquake mechanisms and source time functions from teleseismic broadband waveforms is feasible. A prerequisite for Bayesian inference is the proper characterisation of the noise afflicting the measurements. We show that, for realistic broadband body-wave seismograms, the systematic error due to an incomplete physical model affects waveform misfits more strongly than random, ambient background noise. In this situation, the waveform cross-correlation coefficient CC, or rather its decorrelation D = 1 - CC, performs more robustly as a misfit criterion than ℓp norms, more commonly used as sample-by-sample measures of misfit based on distances between individual time samples. From a set of over 900 user-supervised, deterministic earthquake source

  3. Dynamic Source Parameters of the 2008 Wenchuan 8.0, China, Earthquake (United States)

    Yu, X.; Zhang, W.


    On May 12, 2008, a huge earthquake with magnitude Ms 8.0 occurred in the Wenchuan, Sichuan Province of China. This event was the most devastating earthquake in the mainland of China since the Great 1976 M7.8 Tangshan earthquake. It resulted in tremendous losses of life and property. Due to occur in the mountainous area, this great earthquake and the following thousands aftershocks also caused many other geological disasters, such as landslide, mud-rock flow and "quake lakes" which formed by landslide-induced reservoirs. This earthquake occurred along the Longmenshan fault, as the result of motion on a northeast striking reverse fault or thrust fault on the northwestern margin of the Sichuan Basin. The earthquake's epicenter and focal-mechanism are consistent with it having occurred as the result of movement on the Longmenshan fault or a tectonically related fault. The earthquake reflects tectonic stresses resulting from the convergence of crustal material slowly moving from the high Tibetan Plateau, to the west, against strong crust underlying the Sichuan Basin and southeastern China. In this study, the spatial and temporal distribution of the stress on the fault plane of this great earthquake is estimated from the inversion results (Qin & Zhang, 2013) by solving the elastodynamic equations. Then, the dynamic source parameters are determined and the relations between the shear stress and the slip, the shear stress and the slip-rate for all grid positions on the fault are investigated. Finally, the frictional law for the source rupture is inferred from the dynamic source parameters. Based on the obtained dynamic source parameters, we try to rebuild the dynamic rupture process of this event and discuss the characteristics of this great earthquake.

  4. Earthquake Source Spectral Study beyond the Omega-Square Model (United States)

    Uchide, T.; Imanishi, K.


    Earthquake source spectra have been used for characterizing earthquake source processes quantitatively and, at the same time, simply, so that we can analyze the source spectra for many earthquakes, especially for small earthquakes, at once and compare them each other. A standard model for the source spectra is the omega-square model, which has the flat spectrum and the falloff inversely proportional to the square of frequencies at low and high frequencies, respectively, which are bordered by a corner frequency. The corner frequency has often been converted to the stress drop under the assumption of circular crack models. However, recent studies claimed the existence of another corner frequency [Denolle and Shearer, 2016; Uchide and Imanishi, 2016] thanks to the recent development of seismic networks. We have found that many earthquakes in areas other than the area studied by Uchide and Imanishi [2016] also have source spectra deviating from the omega-square model. Another part of the earthquake spectra we now focus on is the falloff rate at high frequencies, which will affect the seismic energy estimation [e.g., Hirano and Yagi, 2017]. In June, 2016, we deployed seven velocity seismometers in the northern Ibaraki prefecture, where the shallow crustal seismicity mainly with normal-faulting events was activated by the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake. We have recorded seismograms at 1000 samples per second and at a short distance from the source, so that we can investigate the high-frequency components of the earthquake source spectra. Although we are still in the stage of discovery and confirmation of the deviation from the standard omega-square model, the update of the earthquake source spectrum model will help us systematically extract more information on the earthquake source process.

  5. Groundwater storage inferred from earthquake activities around East Asia and West Pacific Ocean (United States)

    Shih, David Ching-Fang


    Groundwater is a necessary and indispensable resource in the gradual depletion of the amount in the world. Groundwater storage is an important indicator to evaluate the capability of volume of water can be released from the aquifer. This research highlights a new assessment to infer the storage of aquifer using earthquakes activated around East Asia and the ring of fire at West Pacific Ocean. Ten significant seismic events are used to evaluate the groundwater storage at an observation station. By analyzing the spectra of groundwater level and seismogram, it is evident that the period varied in 7-25 s of Rayleigh waves significantly dominate propagation from the epicenter of earthquakes to the observation station. The storage coefficient is then shown in the order of 10-4-10-3. The major innovation of this study suggests that to concretely deduce the groundwater storage by earthquake activity has become feasible.

  6. Estimation of earthquake source parameters in the Kachchh seismic ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 126; Issue 5. Estimation of earthquake source ... SEISAN software has been used to locate the identified local earthquakes, which were recorded at least three or more stations of the Kachchh seismological network. Three component spectra of S-wave are being ...

  7. Source Parameters and Rupture Directivities of Earthquakes Within the Mendocino Triple Junction (United States)

    Allen, A. A.; Chen, X.


    The Mendocino Triple Junction (MTJ), a region in the Cascadia subduction zone, produces a sizable amount of earthquakes each year. Direct observations of the rupture properties are difficult to achieve due to the small magnitudes of most of these earthquakes and lack of offshore observations. The Cascadia Initiative (CI) project provides opportunities to look at the earthquakes in detail. Here we look at the transform plate boundary fault located in the MTJ, and measure source parameters of Mw≥4 earthquakes from both time-domain deconvolution and spectral analysis using empirical Green's function (EGF) method. The second-moment method is used to infer rupture length, width, and rupture velocity from apparent source duration measured at different stations. Brune's source model is used to infer corner frequency and spectral complexity for stacked spectral ratio. EGFs are selected based on their location relative to the mainshock, as well as the magnitude difference compared to the mainshock. For the transform fault, we first look at the largest earthquake recorded during the Year 4 CI array, a Mw5.72 event that occurred in January of 2015, and select two EGFs, a Mw1.75 and a Mw1.73 located within 5 km of the mainshock. This earthquake is characterized with at least two sub-events, with total duration of about 0.3 second and rupture length of about 2.78 km. The earthquake is rupturing towards west along the transform fault, and both source durations and corner frequencies show strong azimuthal variations, with anti-correlation between duration and corner frequency. The stacked spectral ratio from multiple stations with the Mw1.73 EGF event shows deviation from pure Brune's source model following the definition from Uchide and Imanishi [2016], likely due to near-field recordings with rupture complexity. We will further analyze this earthquake using more EGF events to test the reliability and stability of the results, and further analyze three other Mw≥4 earthquakes

  8. New Insights on the Uncertainties in Finite-Fault Earthquake Source Inversion

    KAUST Repository

    Razafindrakoto, Hoby


    New Insights on the Uncertainties in Finite-Fault Earthquake Source Inversion Hoby Njara Tendrisoa Razafindrakoto Earthquake source inversion is a non-linear problem that leads to non-unique solutions. The aim of this dissertation is to understand the uncertainty and reliability in earthquake source inversion, as well as to quantify variability in earthquake rupture models. The source inversion is performed using a Bayesian inference. This technique augments optimization approaches through its ability to image the entire solution space which is consistent with the data and prior information. In this study, the uncertainty related to the choice of source-time function and crustal structure is investigated. Three predefined analytical source-time functions are analyzed; isosceles triangle, Yoffe with acceleration time of 0.1 and 0.3 s. The use of the isosceles triangle as source-time function is found to bias the finite-fault source inversion results. It accelerates the rupture to propagate faster compared to that of the Yoffe function. Moreover, it generates an artificial linear correlation between parameters that does not exist for the Yoffe source-time functions. The effect of inadequate knowledge of Earth’s crustal structure in earthquake rupture models is subsequently investigated. The results show that one-dimensional structure variability leads to parameters resolution changes, with a broadening of the posterior 5 PDFs and shifts in the peak location. These changes in the PDFs of kinematic parameters are associated with the blurring effect of using incorrect Earth structure. As an application to real earthquake, finite-fault source models for the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake are examined using one- and three-dimensional crustal structures. One- dimensional structure is found to degrade the data fitting. However, there is no significant effect on the rupture parameters aside from differences in the spatial slip extension. Stable features are maintained for both

  9. Responses of a tall building in Los Angeles, California as inferred from local and distant earthquakes (United States)

    Çelebi, Mehmet; Hasan Ulusoy,; Nori Nakata,


    Increasing inventory of tall buildings in the United States and elsewhere may be subjected to motions generated by near and far seismic sources that cause long-period effects. Multiple sets of records that exhibited such effects were retrieved from tall buildings in Tokyo and Osaka ~ 350 km and 770 km from the epicenter of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. In California, very few tall buildings have been instrumented. An instrumented 52-story building in downtown Los Angeles recorded seven local and distant earthquakes. Spectral and system identification methods exhibit significant low frequencies of interest (~0.17 Hz, 0.56 Hz and 1.05 Hz). These frequencies compare well with those computed by transfer functions; however, small variations are observed between the significant low frequencies for each of the seven earthquakes. The torsional and translational frequencies are very close and are coupled. Beating effect is observed in at least two of the seven earthquake data.

  10. Heterogeneous rupture in the great Cascadia earthquake of 1700 inferred from coastal subsidence estimates (United States)

    Wang, Pei-Ling; Engelhart, Simon E.; Wang, Kelin; Hawkes, Andrea D.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Nelson, Alan R.; Witter, Robert C.


    Past earthquake rupture models used to explain paleoseismic estimates of coastal subsidence during the great A.D. 1700 Cascadia earthquake have assumed a uniform slip distribution along the megathrust. Here we infer heterogeneous slip for the Cascadia margin in A.D. 1700 that is analogous to slip distributions during instrumentally recorded great subduction earthquakes worldwide. The assumption of uniform distribution in previous rupture models was due partly to the large uncertainties of then available paleoseismic data used to constrain the models. In this work, we use more precise estimates of subsidence in 1700 from detailed tidal microfossil studies. We develop a 3-D elastic dislocation model that allows the slip to vary both along strike and in the dip direction. Despite uncertainties in the updip and downdip slip extensions, the more precise subsidence estimates are best explained by a model with along-strike slip heterogeneity, with multiple patches of high-moment release separated by areas of low-moment release. For example, in A.D. 1700, there was very little slip near Alsea Bay, Oregon (~44.4°N), an area that coincides with a segment boundary previously suggested on the basis of gravity anomalies. A probable subducting seamount in this area may be responsible for impeding rupture during great earthquakes. Our results highlight the need for more precise, high-quality estimates of subsidence or uplift during prehistoric earthquakes from the coasts of southern British Columbia, northern Washington (north of 47°N), southernmost Oregon, and northern California (south of 43°N), where slip distributions of prehistoric earthquakes are poorly constrained.

  11. Earthquake source model using strong motion displacement

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The strong motion displacement records available during an earthquake can be treated as the response of the earth as the a structural system to unknown forces acting at unknown locations. Thus, if the part of the earth participating in ground motion is modelled as a known finite elastic medium, one can attempt to model the ...

  12. Fused Regression for Multi-source Gene Regulatory Network Inference.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kari Y Lam


    Full Text Available Understanding gene regulatory networks is critical to understanding cellular differentiation and response to external stimuli. Methods for global network inference have been developed and applied to a variety of species. Most approaches consider the problem of network inference independently in each species, despite evidence that gene regulation can be conserved even in distantly related species. Further, network inference is often confined to single data-types (single platforms and single cell types. We introduce a method for multi-source network inference that allows simultaneous estimation of gene regulatory networks in multiple species or biological processes through the introduction of priors based on known gene relationships such as orthology incorporated using fused regression. This approach improves network inference performance even when orthology mapping and conservation are incomplete. We refine this method by presenting an algorithm that extracts the true conserved subnetwork from a larger set of potentially conserved interactions and demonstrate the utility of our method in cross species network inference. Last, we demonstrate our method's utility in learning from data collected on different experimental platforms.

  13. Bayesian inference of earthquake parameters from buoy data using a polynomial chaos-based surrogate

    KAUST Repository

    Giraldi, Loic


    This work addresses the estimation of the parameters of an earthquake model by the consequent tsunami, with an application to the Chile 2010 event. We are particularly interested in the Bayesian inference of the location, the orientation, and the slip of an Okada-based model of the earthquake ocean floor displacement. The tsunami numerical model is based on the GeoClaw software while the observational data is provided by a single DARTⓇ buoy. We propose in this paper a methodology based on polynomial chaos expansion to construct a surrogate model of the wave height at the buoy location. A correlated noise model is first proposed in order to represent the discrepancy between the computational model and the data. This step is necessary, as a classical independent Gaussian noise is shown to be unsuitable for modeling the error, and to prevent convergence of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler. Second, the polynomial chaos model is subsequently improved to handle the variability of the arrival time of the wave, using a preconditioned non-intrusive spectral method. Finally, the construction of a reduced model dedicated to Bayesian inference is proposed. Numerical results are presented and discussed.

  14. Multiple Spectral Ratio Analyses Reveal Earthquake Source Spectra of Small Earthquakes and Moment Magnitudes of Microearthquakes (United States)

    Uchide, T.; Imanishi, K.


    Spectral studies for macroscopic earthquake source parameters are helpful for characterizing earthquake rupture process and hence understanding earthquake source physics and fault properties. Those studies require us mute wave propagation path and site effects in spectra of seismograms to accentuate source effect. We have recently developed the multiple spectral ratio method [Uchide and Imanishi, BSSA, 2016] employing many empirical Green's function (EGF) events to reduce errors from the choice of EGF events. This method helps us estimate source spectra more accurately as well as moment ratios among reference and EGF events, which are useful to constrain the seismic moment of microearthquakes. First, we focus on earthquake source spectra. The source spectra have generally been thought to obey the omega-square model with single corner-frequency. However recent studies imply the existence of another corner frequency for some earthquakes. We analyzed small shallow inland earthquakes (3.5 multiple spectral ratio analyses. For 20000 microearthquakes in Fukushima Hamadori and northern Ibaraki prefecture area, we found that the JMA magnitudes (Mj) based on displacement or velocity amplitude are systematically below Mw. The slope of the Mj-Mw relation is 0.5 for Mj 5. We propose a fitting curve for the obtained relationship as Mw = (1/2)Mj + (1/2)(Mjγ + Mcorγ)1/γ+ c, where Mcor is a corner magnitude, γ determines the sharpness of the corner, and c denotes an offset. We obtained Mcor = 4.1, γ = 5.6, and c = -0.47 to fit the observation. The parameters are useful for characterizing the Mj-Mw relationship. This non-linear relationship affects the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter law. Quantitative discussions on b-values are affected by the definition of magnitude to use.

  15. Refinements on the inferred causative faults of the great 2012 Indian Ocean earthquakes (United States)

    Revathy, P. M.; Rajendran, K.


    As the largest known intra-plate strike-slip events, the pair of 2012 earthquakes in the Wharton Basin is a rarity. Separated in time by 2 hours these events rouse interest also because of their short inter-event duration, complex rupture mechanism, and spatial-temporal proximity to the great 2004 Sumatra plate boundary earthquake. Reactivation of fossil ridge-transform pairs is a favoured mechanism for large oceanic plate earthquakes and their inherent geometry triggers earthquakes on conjugate fault systems, as observed previously in the Wharton Basin. The current debate is whether the ruptures occurred on the WNW-ESE paleo ridges or the NNE-SSW paleo transforms. Back-projection models give a complex rupture pattern that favours the WNW-ESE fault [1]. However, the static stress changes due to the 2004 Sumatra earthquake and 2005 Nias earthquake favour the N15°E fault [2]. We use the Teleseismic Body-Wave Inversion Program [3] and waveform data from Global Seismic Network, to obtain the best fit solutions using P and S-wave synthetic modelling. The preliminary P-wave analysis of both earthquakes gives source parameters that are consistent with the Harvard CMT solutions. The obtained slip distribution complies with the NNE-SSW transforms. Both these earthquakes triggered small tsunamis which appear as two distinctive pulses on 13 Indian Ocean tide gauges and buoys. Frequency spectra of the tsunami recordings from various azimuths provide additional constraint for the choice of the causative faults. References: [1] Yue, H., T. Lay, and K. D. Koper (2012), En echelon and orthogonal fault ruptures of the 11 April 2012 great intraplate earthquakes, Nature, 490, 245-249, doi:10.1038/nature11492 [2] Delescluse, M., N. Chamot-Rooke, R. Cattin, L. Fleitout, O. Trubienko and C. Vigny April 2012 intra-oceanic seismicity off Sumatra boosted by the Banda-Aceh megathrust, Nature, 490(2012), pp. 240-244, doi:10.1038/nature11520 [3] M. Kikuchi and H. Kanamori, Note on

  16. The 2016-2017 Central Italy Seismic Sequence: Source Complexity Inferred from Rupture Models. (United States)

    Scognamiglio, L.; Tinti, E.; Casarotti, E.; Pucci, S.; Villani, F.; Cocco, M.; Magnoni, F.; Michelini, A.


    The Apennines have been struck by several seismic sequences in recent years, showing evidence of the activation of multiple segments of normal fault systems in a variable and, relatively short, time span, as in the case of the 1980 Irpinia earthquake (three shocks in 40 s), the 1997 Umbria-Marche sequence (four main shocks in 18 days) and the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake having three segments activated within a few weeks. The 2016-2017 central Apennines seismic sequence begin on August 24th with a MW 6.0 earthquake, which strike the region between Amatrice and Accumoli causing 299 fatalities. This earthquake ruptures a nearly 20 km long normal fault and shows a quite heterogeneous slip distribution. On October 26th, another main shock (MW 5.9) occurs near Visso extending the activated seismogenic area toward the NW. It is a double event rupturing contiguous patches on the fault segment of the normal fault system. Four days after the second main shock, on October 30th, a third earthquake (MW 6.5) occurs near Norcia, roughly midway between Accumoli and Visso. In this work we have inverted strong motion waveforms and GPS data to retrieve the source model of the MW 6.5 event with the aim of interpreting the rupture process in the framework of this complex sequence of moderate magnitude earthquakes. We noted that some preliminary attempts to model the slip distribution of the October 30th main shock using a single fault plane oriented along the Apennines did not provide convincing fits to the observed waveforms. In addition, the deformation pattern inferred from satellite observations suggested the activation of a multi-fault structure, that is coherent to the complexity and the extension of the geological surface deformation. We investigated the role of multi-fault ruptures and we found that this event revealed an extraordinary complexity of the rupture geometry and evolution: the coseismic rupture propagated almost simultaneously on a normal fault and on a blind fault

  17. Automated Determination of Magnitude and Source Length of Large Earthquakes (United States)

    Wang, D.; Kawakatsu, H.; Zhuang, J.; Mori, J. J.; Maeda, T.; Tsuruoka, H.; Zhao, X.


    Rapid determination of earthquake magnitude is of importance for estimating shaking damages, and tsunami hazards. However, due to the complexity of source process, accurately estimating magnitude for great earthquakes in minutes after origin time is still a challenge. Mw is an accurate estimate for large earthquakes. However, calculating Mw requires the whole wave trains including P, S, and surface phases, which takes tens of minutes to reach stations at tele-seismic distances. To speed up the calculation, methods using W phase and body wave are developed for fast estimating earthquake sizes. Besides these methods that involve Green's Functions and inversions, there are other approaches that use empirically simulated relations to estimate earthquake magnitudes, usually for large earthquakes. The nature of simple implementation and straightforward calculation made these approaches widely applied at many institutions such as the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, the Japan Meteorological Agency, and the USGS. Here we developed an approach that was originated from Hara [2007], estimating magnitude by considering P-wave displacement and source duration. We introduced a back-projection technique [Wang et al., 2016] instead to estimate source duration using array data from a high-sensitive seismograph network (Hi-net). The introduction of back-projection improves the method in two ways. Firstly, the source duration could be accurately determined by seismic array. Secondly, the results can be more rapidly calculated, and data derived from farther stations are not required. We purpose to develop an automated system for determining fast and reliable source information of large shallow seismic events based on real time data of a dense regional array and global data, for earthquakes that occur at distance of roughly 30°- 85° from the array center. This system can offer fast and robust estimates of magnitudes and rupture extensions of large earthquakes in 6 to 13 min (plus

  18. Automated Determination of Magnitude and Source Extent of Large Earthquakes (United States)

    Wang, Dun


    Rapid determination of earthquake magnitude is of importance for estimating shaking damages, and tsunami hazards. However, due to the complexity of source process, accurately estimating magnitude for great earthquakes in minutes after origin time is still a challenge. Mw is an accurate estimate for large earthquakes. However, calculating Mw requires the whole wave trains including P, S, and surface phases, which takes tens of minutes to reach stations at tele-seismic distances. To speed up the calculation, methods using W phase and body wave are developed for fast estimating earthquake sizes. Besides these methods that involve Green's Functions and inversions, there are other approaches that use empirically simulated relations to estimate earthquake magnitudes, usually for large earthquakes. The nature of simple implementation and straightforward calculation made these approaches widely applied at many institutions such as the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, the Japan Meteorological Agency, and the USGS. Here we developed an approach that was originated from Hara [2007], estimating magnitude by considering P-wave displacement and source duration. We introduced a back-projection technique [Wang et al., 2016] instead to estimate source duration using array data from a high-sensitive seismograph network (Hi-net). The introduction of back-projection improves the method in two ways. Firstly, the source duration could be accurately determined by seismic array. Secondly, the results can be more rapidly calculated, and data derived from farther stations are not required. We purpose to develop an automated system for determining fast and reliable source information of large shallow seismic events based on real time data of a dense regional array and global data, for earthquakes that occur at distance of roughly 30°- 85° from the array center. This system can offer fast and robust estimates of magnitudes and rupture extensions of large earthquakes in 6 to 13 min (plus

  19. Comprehensive analysis of earthquake source spectra in southern California


    Shearer, Peter M.; Prieto, Germán A.; Hauksson, Egill


    We compute and analyze P wave spectra from earthquakes in southern California between 1989 and 2001 using a method that isolates source-, receiver-, and path-dependent terms. We correct observed source spectra for attenuation using both fixed and spatially varying empirical Green's function methods. Estimated Brune-type stress drops for over 60,000 M_L = 1.5 to 3.1 earthquakes range from 0.2 to 20 MPa with no dependence on moment or local b value. Median computed stress drop increases with de...

  20. Possible Dual Earthquake-Landslide Source of the 13 November 2016 Kaikoura, New Zealand Tsunami (United States)

    Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Satake, Kenji


    A complicated earthquake ( M w 7.8) in terms of rupture mechanism occurred in the NE coast of South Island, New Zealand, on 13 November 2016 (UTC) in a complex tectonic setting comprising a transition strike-slip zone between two subduction zones. The earthquake generated a moderate tsunami with zero-to-crest amplitude of 257 cm at the near-field tide gauge station of Kaikoura. Spectral analysis of the tsunami observations showed dual peaks at 3.6-5.7 and 5.7-56 min, which we attribute to the potential landslide and earthquake sources of the tsunami, respectively. Tsunami simulations showed that a source model with slip on an offshore plate-interface fault reproduces the near-field tsunami observation in terms of amplitude, but fails in terms of tsunami period. On the other hand, a source model without offshore slip fails to reproduce the first peak, but the later phases are reproduced well in terms of both amplitude and period. It can be inferred that an offshore source is necessary to be involved, but it needs to be smaller in size than the plate interface slip, which most likely points to a confined submarine landslide source, consistent with the dual-peak tsunami spectrum. We estimated the dimension of the potential submarine landslide at 8-10 km.

  1. Rapid estimate of earthquake source duration: application to tsunami warning. (United States)

    Reymond, Dominique; Jamelot, Anthony; Hyvernaud, Olivier


    We present a method for estimating the source duration of the fault rupture, based on the high-frequency envelop of teleseismic P-Waves, inspired from the original work of (Ni et al., 2005). The main interest of the knowledge of this seismic parameter is to detect abnormal low velocity ruptures that are the characteristic of the so called 'tsunami-earthquake' (Kanamori, 1972). The validation of the results of source duration estimated by this method are compared with two other independent methods : the estimated duration obtained by the Wphase inversion (Kanamori and Rivera, 2008, Duputel et al., 2012) and the duration calculated by the SCARDEC process that determines the source time function (M. Vallée et al., 2011). The estimated source duration is also confronted to the slowness discriminant defined by Newman and Okal, 1998), that is calculated routinely for all earthquakes detected by our tsunami warning process (named PDFM2, Preliminary Determination of Focal Mechanism, (Clément and Reymond, 2014)). Concerning the point of view of operational tsunami warning, the numerical simulations of tsunami are deeply dependent on the source estimation: better is the source estimation, better will be the tsunami forecast. The source duration is not directly injected in the numerical simulations of tsunami, because the cinematic of the source is presently totally ignored (Jamelot and Reymond, 2015). But in the case of a tsunami-earthquake that occurs in the shallower part of the subduction zone, we have to consider a source in a medium of low rigidity modulus; consequently, for a given seismic moment, the source dimensions will be decreased while the slip distribution increased, like a 'compact' source (Okal, Hébert, 2007). Inversely, a rapid 'snappy' earthquake that has a poor tsunami excitation power, will be characterized by higher rigidity modulus, and will produce weaker displacement and lesser source dimensions than 'normal' earthquake. References: CLément, J

  2. Peculiarities of the aftershock source specters of 1988 Spitak earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahakyan, A.H.; Nazaretyan, S.H.


    The mass definition of selected frequency cods for seismic station 'Stepanavan' is done and with the help of this the source specters of oscillation deflections, velocities and accelerations are calculated. Some characteristic peculiarities of source specters are revealed. The great part of Spitak earthquake aftershocks are of the first type, that is their source specters have one angle frequency of occurrence and greatly they are of low frequency. The solidity of the environment practically hasn't changed

  3. Dynamic Source Inversion of Intermediate Depth Earthquakes in Mexico (United States)

    Yuto Sho Mirwald, Aron; Cruz-Atienza, Victor Manuel; Krishna Singh-Singh, Shri


    The source mechanisms of earthquakes at intermediate depth (50-300 km) are still under debate. Due to the high confining pressure at depths below 50 km, rocks ought to deform by ductile flow rather than brittle failure, which is the mechanism originating most earthquakes. Several source mechanisms have been proposed, but for neither of them conclusive evidence has been found. One of two viable mechanisms is Dehydration Embrittlement, where liberation of water lowers the effective pressure and enables brittle fracture. The other is Thermal Runaway, a highly localized ductile deformation (Prieto et. al., Tecto., 2012). In the Mexican subduction zone, intermediate depth earthquakes represent a real hazard in central Mexico due to their proximity to highly populated areas and the large accelerations induced on ground motion (Iglesias et. al., BSSA, 2002). To improve our understanding of these rupture processes, we use a recently introduced inversion method (Diaz-Mojica et. al., JGR, 2014) to analyze several intermediate depth earthquakes in Mexico. The method inverts strong motion seismograms to determine the dynamic source parameters based on a genetic algorithm. It has been successfully used for the M6.5 Zumpango earthquake that occurred at a depth of 62 km in the state of Guerrero, Mexico. For this event, high radiated energy, low radiation efficiency and low rupture velocity were determined. This indicates a highly dissipative rupture process, suggesting that Thermal Runaway could probably be the dominant source process. In this work we improved the inversion method by introducing a theoretical consideration for the nucleation process that minimizes the effects of rupture initiation and guarantees self-sustained rupture propagation (Galis et. al., GJInt., 2014). Preliminary results indicate that intermediate depth earthquakes in central Mexico may vary in their rupture process. For instance, for a M5.9 normal-faulting earthquake at 55 km depth that produced very

  4. Long Period Source Characteristics of Great Earthquakes: diagnosing complexity (United States)

    Rivera, L. A.; Kanamori, H.


    With the commonly used centroid moment tensor inversions, just one number represents the long period size of the event, the seismic moment Mo (or corresponding Mw). However, several recent studies have clearly demonstrated that this is not satisfactory, at least for some earthquakes. For example, for the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Is. Earthquake, the amplitudes of long-period normal modes indicated that the effective seismic moment increases from 4.0x1022 to 7.1x1022 N-m as the period increases from 300 to 1000 sec. For the 2009 Samoa Is. earthquake (Mw=8.1), the moment tensor was found to be strongly dependent on frequency because the source of this earthquake consists of at least 2 distinct events with very different mechanisms. It is possible that other large and great earthquakes may have similar complex characteristics, but with the standard moment tensor inversion with a single frequency band, we may not notice this easily. Here we investigate the possible frequency dependence of the moment tensor of large earthquakes by performing W phase inversions using teleseismic data and equally spaced narrow overlapping frequency bands. We investigate frequencies from 2.6 to 3.8 mHz. We focus on the variation with frequency of the scalar moment, the amount of non double couple and the focal mechanism. We apply this technique to 30 major events in the period 1994-2013 and use the results to detect source complexity. We class them in three groups according to the variability of the source parameters with frequency: Simple, Complex and Intermediate events and we discuss the correlation of the result of this approach with independent observations of source complexity.

  5. Source rupture process inversion of the 2013 Lushan earthquake, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Lifen


    Full Text Available The spatial and temporal slip distribution of the Lushan earthquake was estimated using teleseismic body wave data. To perform a stable inversion, we applied smoothing constraints and determined their optimal relative weights on the observed data using an optimized Akaike’s Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC. The inversion generated the source parameters. Strike, dip and slip were 218°, 39° and 100. 8°, respectively. A seismic moment (M0 was 2. 1 × 1020 Nm with a moment magnitude (Mw of 6. 8, and a source duration was approximately 30 second. The rupture propagated along the dip direction, and the maximum slip occurred at the hypocenter. The maximum slip was approximately 2. 1 m, although this earthquake did not cause an apparent surface rupture. The energy was mainly released within 10 second. In addition, the Lushan earthquake was apparently related to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. However, the question of whether it was an aftershock of the Wenchuan earthquake requires further study.

  6. Earthquake source model using strong motion displacement as ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Earthquake source model using strong motion displacement as response of finite elastic media. R N IYENGAR* and SHAILESH KR AGRAWAL**. *Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560 012, India. e-mail: **Central Building Research Institute, Roorkee, India.

  7. Comparison of earthquake source characteristics in the Kachchh Rift ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)


    The uncertainties in the SPs estimates are studied by calculating the mean and standard deviation of fc, Mo, and ∆σ ... Finally, the standard deviation of ∆σ is estimated following the scheme of Fletcher et al. (1984) .... In general, the seismic moment tensor is used to define the source mechanism of an earthquake. A moment ...

  8. Estimation of source parameters of Chamoli Earthquake, India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The devastating earthquake (mb = 6.6) at Chamoli, Garhwal Himalaya, which occurred in the morning hours on 29th March 1999, was recorded on Delhi Strong Motion Accelerograph (DSMA) Network operated by the Central Building Research Institute, Roorkee. In this paper the source parameters of this event calculated ...

  9. Estimation of source parameters of Chamoli Earthquake, India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan, Krishtel eMaging Solutions

    The devastating earthquake (mb = 6.6) at Chamoli, Garhwal Himalaya, which occurred in the morning hours on 29th March 1999, was recorded on Delhi Strong Motion Accelerograph (DSMA). Network operated by the Central Building Research Institute, Roorkee. In this paper the source parameters of this event calculated ...

  10. Source of the 1730 Chilean earthquake from historical records: Implications for the future tsunami hazard on the coast of Metropolitan Chile (United States)

    Carvajal, M.; Cisternas, M.; Catalán, P. A.


    Historical records of an earthquake that occurred in 1730 affecting Metropolitan Chile provide essential clues on the source characteristics for the future earthquakes in the region. The earthquake and tsunami of 1730 have been recognized as the largest to occur in Metropolitan Chile since the beginning of written history. The earthquake destroyed buildings along >1000 km of the coast and produced a large tsunami that caused damage as far as Japan. Here its source characteristics are inferred by comparing local tsunami inundations computed from hypothetical earthquakes with varying magnitude and depth, with those inferred from historical observations. It is found that a 600-800 km long rupture involving average slip amounts of 10-14 m (Mw 9.1-9.3) best explains the observed tsunami heights and inundations. This large earthquake magnitude is supported by the 1730 tsunami heights inferred in Japan. The inundation results combined with local uplift reports suggest a southward increase of the slip depth along the rupture zone of the 1730 earthquake. While shallow slip on the area to the north of the 2010 earthquake rupture zone is required to explain the reported inundation, only deeper slip at this area can explain the coastal uplift reports. Since the later earthquakes of the region involved little or no slip at shallow depths, the near-future earthquakes on Metropolitan Chile could release the shallow slip accumulated since 1730 and thus lead to strong tsunami excitation. Moderate shaking from a shallow earthquake could delay tsunami evacuation for the most populated coastal region of Chile.

  11. Constraints on behaviour of a mining‐induced earthquake inferred from laboratory rock mechanics experiments (United States)

    McGarr, Arthur F.; Johnston, Malcolm J.; Boettcher, M.; Heesakkers, V.; Reches, Z.


    On December 12, 2004, an earthquake of magnitude 2.2, located in the TauTona Gold Mine at a depth of about 3.65 km in the ancient Pretorius fault zone, was recorded by the in-mine borehole seismic network, yielding an excellent set of ground motion data recorded at hypocentral distances of several km. From these data, the seismic moment tensor, indicating mostly normal faulting with a small implosive component, and the radiated energy were measured; the deviatoric component of the moment tensor was estimated to be M0 = 2.3×1012 N·m and the radiated energy ER = 5.4×108 J. This event caused extensive damage along tunnels within the Pretorius fault zone. What rendered this earthquake of particular interest was the underground investigation of the complex pattern of exposed rupture surfaces combined with laboratory testing of rock samples retrieved from the ancient fault zone (Heesakkers et al.2011a, 2011b). Event 12/12 2004 was the result of fault slip across at least four nonparallel fault surfaces; 25 mm of slip was measured at one location on the rupture segment that is most parallel with a fault plane inferred from the seismic moment tensor, suggesting that this segment accounted for much of the total seismic deformation. By applying a recently developed technique based on biaxial stick-slip friction experiments (McGarr2012, 2013) to the seismic results, together with the 25 mm slip observed underground, we estimated a maximum slip rate of at least 6.6 m/s, which is consistent with the observed damage to tunnels in the rupture zone. Similarly, the stress drop and apparent stress were found to be correspondingly high at 21.9 MPa and 6.6 MPa, respectively. The ambient state of stress, measured at the approximate depth of the earthquake but away from the influence of mining, in conjunction with laboratory measurements of the strength of the fault zone cataclasites, indicates that during rupture of the M 2.2 event, the normal stress acting on the large-slip fault

  12. The Pressure Sources Beneath Unzen Volcano Inferred From Geodesic Survey (United States)

    Kohno, Y.; Matsushima, T.; Shimizu, H.


    Unzen Volcano, which is located on Shimabara Peninsula, west Kyushu Island, Japan, erupted from 1990 to 1995. The ground deformations caused by volcanic activity were observed by several methods, such as Leveling survey, GPS and Tilt meters. In particular, it turned out from leveling data that the west coast area of Shimabara Peninsula sank about 8 cm since eruption had started. Joint Research Team of the national Universities suggested in 1992 that the model which has three pressure sources, could explain the ground deformation data in those days. But this model couldn_ft explain the leveling data which was observed after the eruption had stopped. In order to explain this latest leveling data, we had to add the fourth deeper pressure source beneath the Chidiwa Bay, confronted in the west seashore of the Shimabara peninsula (Matsushima et al., 2003; Kohno et al., 2003). In this study, we re-consider the source model beneath Unzen Volcano, using 1991-2001 and 2004 Leveling data along the northern flank of Unzen Volcano and the western coast of Shimabara peninsula. Also we use GPS data monitored by Kyushu University and Geographical Survey Institute. In calculation, both vertical and horizontal displacement was calculated applying the point source model (e.g. Mogi, 1958), and we get the best-fit source parameters. Parameters of the pressure sources are the location and the volume changes of pressure sources. Through the model calculation, the half-infinite surface was made for every height of each observation point, and geographical feature was reproduced in approximation. Analysis showed that after 1995 shallower source had started to deflate, on the other hand, two deeper sources still had kept expanding caused by intrusion of magma. After 1999, three shallower sources had begun to contract, and the only deepest (a depth of 15 km) source had expanded. But it is inferred from the 2004 Leveling that the deepest source turned to contract since 2001, and the all

  13. Uncertainty in Earthquake Source Imaging Due to Variations in Source Time Function and Earth Structure

    KAUST Repository

    Razafindrakoto, H. N. T.


    One way to improve the accuracy and reliability of kinematic earthquake source imaging is to investigate the origin of uncertainty and to minimize their effects. The difficulties in kinematic source inversion arise from the nonlinearity of the problem, nonunique choices in the parameterization, and observational errors. We analyze particularly the uncertainty related to the choice of the source time function (STF) and the variability in Earth structure. We consider a synthetic data set generated from a spontaneous dynamic rupture calculation. Using Bayesian inference, we map the solution space of peak slip rate, rupture time, and rise time to characterize the kinematic rupture in terms of posterior density functions. Our test to investigate the effect of the choice of STF reveals that all three tested STFs (isosceles triangle, regularized Yoffe with acceleration time of 0.1 and 0.3 s) retrieve the patch of high slip and slip rate around the hypocenter. However, the use of an isosceles triangle as STF artificially accelerates the rupture to propagate faster than the target solution. It additionally generates an artificial linear correlation between rupture onset time and rise time. These appear to compensate for the dynamic source effects that are not included in the symmetric triangular STF. The exact rise time for the tested STFs is difficult to resolve due to the small amount of radiated seismic moment in the tail of STF. To highlight the effect of Earth structure variability, we perform inversions including the uncertainty in the wavespeed only, and variability in both wavespeed and layer depth. We find that little difference is noticeable between the resulting rupture model uncertainties from these two parameterizations. Both significantly broaden the posterior densities and cause faster rupture propagation particularly near the hypocenter due to the major velocity change at the depth where the fault is located.

  14. Relations between source parameters for large Persian earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Majid Nemati


    Full Text Available Empirical relationships for magnitude scales and fault parameters were produced using 436 Iranian intraplate earthquakes of recently regional databases since the continental events represent a large portion of total seismicity of Iran. The relations between different source parameters of the earthquakes were derived using input information which has usefully been provided from the databases after 1900. Suggested equations for magnitude scales relate the body-wave, surface-wave as well as local magnitude scales to scalar moment of the earthquakes. Also, dependence of source parameters as surface and subsurface rupture length and maximum surface displacement on the moment magnitude for some well documented earthquakes was investigated. For meeting this aim, ordinary linear regression procedures were employed for all relations. Our evaluations reveal a fair agreement between obtained relations and equations described in other worldwide and regional works in literature. The M0-mb and M0-MS equations are correlated well to the worldwide relations. Also, both M0-MS and M0-ML relations have a good agreement with regional studies in Taiwan. The equations derived from this study mainly confirm the results of the global investigations about rupture length of historical and instrumental events. However, some relations like MW-MN and MN-ML which are remarkably unlike to available regional works (e.g., American and Canadian were also found.

  15. LIDAR Helps Identify Source of 1872 Earthquake Near Chelan, Washington (United States)

    Sherrod, B. L.; Blakely, R. J.; Weaver, C. S.


    One of the largest historic earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest occurred on 15 December 1872 (M6.5-7) near the south end of Lake Chelan in north-central Washington State. Lack of recognized surface deformation suggested that the earthquake occurred on a blind, perhaps deep, fault. New LiDAR data show landslides and a ~6 km long, NW-side-up scarp in Spencer Canyon, ~30 km south of Lake Chelan. Two landslides in Spencer Canyon impounded small ponds. An historical account indicated that dead trees were visible in one pond in AD1884. Wood from a snag in the pond yielded a calibrated age of AD1670-1940. Tree ring counts show that the oldest living trees on each landslide are 130 and 128 years old. The larger of the two landslides obliterated the scarp and thus, post-dates the last scarp-forming event. Two trenches across the scarp exposed a NW-dipping thrust fault. One trench exposed alluvial fan deposits, Mazama ash, and scarp colluvium cut by a single thrust fault. Three charcoal samples from a colluvium buried during the last fault displacement had calibrated ages between AD1680 and AD1940. The second trench exposed gneiss thrust over colluvium during at least two, and possibly three fault displacements. The younger of two charcoal samples collected from a colluvium below gneiss had a calibrated age of AD1665- AD1905. For an historical constraint, we assume that the lack of felt reports for large earthquakes in the period between 1872 and today indicates that no large earthquakes capable of rupturing the ground surface occurred in the region after the 1872 earthquake; thus the last displacement on the Spencer Canyon scarp cannot post-date the 1872 earthquake. Modeling of the age data suggests that the last displacement occurred between AD1840 and AD1890. These data, combined with the historical record, indicate that this fault is the source of the 1872 earthquake. Analyses of aeromagnetic data reveal lithologic contacts beneath the scarp that form an ENE

  16. Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquake Source Spectra from an Array of Arrays (United States)

    Gomberg, J. S.; Vidale, J. E.


    suggests it is more likely that variation in attenuation modulates the spectra. Because the variations in apparent source spectra correlate well with source location, but poorly with receiver location, we infer that near-source attenuation differences likely are much more significant. We conclude that the conventional wisdom may require some revision - that near-source propagation effects may be responsible for some fraction of what has hitherto been attributed to source processes. Moreover, our results further suggest that subduction zone earthquakes do not separate neatly into 'slow' and 'fast' classes, but likely span a continuum.

  17. Source characteristics of the Nicaraguan tsunami earthquake of September 2, 1992 (United States)

    Ide, Satoshi; Imamura, Fumihiko; Yoshida, Yasuhiro; Abe, Katsuyuki


    The source mechanisms of the Nicaraguan tsunami earthquake of September 2, 1992 is studied via waveforms of body waves and surface waves recorded on global broadband seismographs. The possibility of a single force is ruled out from radiation patterns and the amplitude ratio of Rayleigh and Love waves. The main shock is interpreted as low-angle thrust fault with strike of 302 deg, dip of 16 deg, and slip of 87 deg, the Cocos plate underthrusting beneath the Caribbean plate. The seismic moment from surface wave analysis is 3.0 x 10 exp 20 Nm. The source dimension is estimated to be 200 x 100 km from the aftershock area. The inversion results of body waves suggest bilateral rupture with rupture velocity as low as 1.5 km/s and duration time of about 100 s. The source process time is unusually long, from which it is inferred that the associated crustal deformation has a long time constant.

  18. Estimation of earthquake source parameters in the Kachchh seismic ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Durgada Nagamani


    Jul 25, 2017 ... Earthquake source parameters and crustal Q0 values for the 138 selected local events of (Mw:2.5−4.4) the 2001 Bhuj ... stress drop and static stress drop values range from 0.01 to 2.56 and 0.53 to 36.79 MPa, respectively. Our study ...... Lee W H K and Valdes C M 1985 HYP071PC: A personal computer ...

  19. Bayesian inference and interpretation of centroid moment tensors of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence, Kyushu, Japan (United States)

    Hallo, Miroslav; Asano, Kimiyuki; Gallovič, František


    On April 16, 2016, Kumamoto prefecture in Kyushu region, Japan, was devastated by a shallow M JMA7.3 earthquake. The series of foreshocks started by M JMA6.5 foreshock 28 h before the mainshock. They have originated in Hinagu fault zone intersecting the mainshock Futagawa fault zone; hence, the tectonic background for this earthquake sequence is rather complex. Here we infer centroid moment tensors (CMTs) for 11 events with M JMA between 4.8 and 6.5, using strong motion records of the K-NET, KiK-net and F-net networks. We use upgraded Bayesian full-waveform inversion code ISOLA-ObsPy, which takes into account uncertainty of the velocity model. Such an approach allows us to reliably assess uncertainty of the CMT parameters including the centroid position. The solutions show significant systematic spatial and temporal variations throughout the sequence. Foreshocks are right-lateral steeply dipping strike-slip events connected to the NE-SW shear zone. Those located close to the intersection of the Hinagu and Futagawa fault zones are dipping slightly to ESE, while those in the southern area are dipping to WNW. Contrarily, aftershocks are mostly normal dip-slip events, being related to the N-S extensional tectonic regime. Most of the deviatoric moment tensors contain only minor CLVD component, which can be attributed to the velocity model uncertainty. Nevertheless, two of the CMTs involve a significant CLVD component, which may reflect complex rupture process. Decomposition of those moment tensors into two pure shear moment tensors suggests combined right-lateral strike-slip and normal dip-slip mechanisms, consistent with the tectonic settings of the intersection of the Hinagu and Futagawa fault zones.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  20. Dynamic Source Rupture Process of the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake (United States)

    Yu, Xiangwei; Zhang, Wenbo


    The 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes are a series of earthquakes occurred in the Kumamoto Prefecture in Kyushu Region of Japan, including a magnitude 7.0 mainshock which struck at 01:25 JST on April 16, 2016 beneath Kumamoto City, at a depth of about 10 km, and a foreshock earthquake with a magnitude 6.2 at 21:26 JST on April 14, 2016, at a depth of about 11 km. This series earthquake killed at least 50 people and injured about 3,000 others in total. Severe damage occurred in Kumamoto and Oita Prefectures, with numerous structures collapsing and catching fire. More than 44,000 people were evacuated from their homes due to the disaster. Kumamoto Prefecture lies at the southern end of the Japan Median Tectonic Line, Japan's longest, where a system of active faults forks in two directions at the Beppu-Haneyama Fault Zone. Specifically, the series of quakes ruptured the 81-km-long Hinagu Fault and 64-km-long Futagawa Fault to its north, as well as lesser but discernable interaction with the farther flung Beppu-Haneyama Fault Zone. A 27-km section of the Futagawa Fault Zone slid 3.5 meters. The earthquakes are occurring along the Beppu-Shimabara graben, with epicenters moving from west to east over time. In this study, we analyze the dynamic rupture process of this earthquake. Our analyzing procedure is as follows, 1) Obtain the spatial-temporal stress distribution on the fault surface from the kinematic source model inverted from strong motion data (Zhang & Zhen, the abstract of this meeting, No. EGU2017ASC20162770). Estimate the strength excess (yielding stress) and the frictional stress level for each subfault; 2) Estimate the critical slip-weakening distance Dc for each subfault assuming a simple slip-weakening law and according to the method of Mikumo et al. (2003); 3) Reconstruct the dynamic source rupture process using those dynamic source parameters with the slip-weakening friction law; and 4) Simultaneously, simulate the near source ground motions based on the

  1. A Bayesian source model for the 2004 great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake (United States)

    Bletery, Quentin; Sladen, Anthony; Jiang, Junle; Simons, Mark


    The 2004 Mw 9.1-9.3 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake is one of the largest earthquakes of the modern instrumental era. Despite considerable efforts to analyze this event, the different available observations have proven difficult to reconcile in a single finite-fault slip model. In particular, the critical near-field geodetic records contain variable and significant postseismic signal (between 2 weeks' and 2 months' worth), while the satellite altimetry records of the associated tsunami are affected by various sources of uncertainties (e.g., source rupture velocity and mesoscale oceanic currents). In this study, we investigate the quasi-static slip distribution of the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake by carefully accounting for the different sources of uncertainties in the joint inversion of available geodetic and tsunami data. To this end, we use nondiagonal covariance matrices reflecting both observational and modeling uncertainties in a fully Bayesian inversion framework. Modeling errors can be particularly large for great earthquakes. Here we consider a layered spherical Earth for the static displacement field, nonhydrostatic equations for the tsunami, and a 3-D megathrust interface geometry to alleviate some of the potential epistemic uncertainties. The Bayesian framework then enables us to derive families of possible models compatible with the unevenly distributed and sometimes ambiguous measurements. We infer two regions of high fault slip at 3°N-4°N and 7°N-8°N with amplitudes that likely reach values as large as 40 m and possibly larger. These values are a factor of 2 larger than typically found in previous studies—potentially an outcome of commonly assumed forms of regularization. Finally, we find that fault rupture very likely involved shallow slip. Within the resolution provided by the existing data, we cannot rule out the possibility that fault rupture reached the trench.

  2. Quasi-periodic recurrence of great and giant earthquakes in South-Central Chile inferred from lacustrine turbidite records (United States)

    Strasser, M.; Moernaut, J.; Van Daele, M. E.; De Batist, M. A. O.


    Coastal paleoseismic records in south-central Chile indicate that giant megathrust earthquakes -such as in AD1960 (Mw9.5)- occur on average every 300 yrs. Based on geodetic data, it was postulated that the area already has the potential for a Mw8 earthquake. However, to estimate the probability for such a great earthquake from a paleo-perspective, one needs to reconstruct the long-term recurrence pattern of megathrust earthquakes. Here, we present two long lacustrine records, comprising up to 35 earthquake-triggered turbidites over the last 4800 yrs. Calibration of turbidite extent with historical earthquake intensity reveals a different macroseismic intensity threshold (≥VII½ vs. ≥VI½) for the generation of turbidites at the coring sites. The strongest earthquakes (≥VII½) have longer recurrence intervals (292 ±93 yrs) than earthquakes with intensity of ≥VI½ (139 ±69 yrs). The coefficient of variation (CoV) of inter-event times indicate that the strongest earthquakes recur in a quasi-periodic way (CoV: 0.32) and follow a normal distribution. Including also "smaller" earthquakes (Intensity down to VI½) increases the CoV (0.5) and fits best with a Weibull distribution. Regional correlation of our multi-threshold shaking records with coastal records of tsunami and coseismic subsidence suggests that the intensity ≥VII½ events repeatedly ruptured the same part of the megathrust over a distance of at least 300 km and can be assigned to a Mw ≥ 8.6. We hypothesize that a zone of high plate locking -identified by GPS data and large slip in AD 1960- acts as a dominant regional asperity, on which elastic strain builds up over several centuries and mostly gets released in quasi-periodic great and giant earthquakes. For the next 110 yrs, we infer an enhanced probability for a Mw 7.7-8.5 earthquake whereas the probability for a Mw ≥ 8.6 (AD1960-like) earthquake remains low.

  3. Schwarz method for earthquake source dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Badea, Lori; Ionescu, Ioan R.; Wolf, Sylvie


    Dynamic faulting under slip-dependent friction in a linear elastic domain (in-plane and 3D configurations) is considered. The use of an implicit time-stepping scheme (Newmark method) allows much larger values of the time step than the critical CFL time step, and higher accuracy to handle the non-smoothness of the interface constitutive law (slip weakening friction). The finite element form of the quasi-variational inequality is solved by a Schwarz domain decomposition method, by separating the inner nodes of the domain from the nodes on the fault. In this way, the quasi-variational inequality splits into two subproblems. The first one is a large linear system of equations, and its unknowns are related to the mesh nodes of the first subdomain (i.e. lying inside the domain). The unknowns of the second subproblem are the degrees of freedom of the mesh nodes of the second subdomain (i.e. lying on the domain boundary where the conditions of contact and friction are imposed). This nonlinear subproblem is solved by the same Schwarz algorithm, leading to some local nonlinear subproblems of a very small size. Numerical experiments are performed to illustrate convergence in time and space, instability capturing, energy dissipation and the influence of normal stress variations. We have used the proposed numerical method to compute source dynamics phenomena on complex and realistic 2D fault models (branched fault systems)

  4. Estimation of source parameters of Chamoli Earthquake, India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan, Krishtel eMaging Solutions

    experienced two more devastating earthquakes of magnitude greater than 6.0 in the last decade namely the Uttarkashi earthquake in 1991 and the Chamoli earthquake in 1999 (Rajendran et al 2000, Rastogi. 2000). The effect of these earthquakes was felt up to approx. 300 km. in the city of Delhi. In the recent earthquake ...

  5. Three Kanto Earthquakes Inferred from the Tsunami Deposits and the Relative Sea Level Change in the Miura Peninsula, Central Japan (United States)

    Kim, H.; Shimazaki, K.; Chiba, T.; Ishibe, T.; Okamura, M.; Matsuoka, H.; Tsuji, Y.; Satake, K.


    The Kanto earthquake is a great interplate earthquake caused by subduction of the Philippine Sea Plate beneath the Japan Island along the Sagami Trough. The 1923 Kanto earthquake (M=7.9) and the 1703 Kanto earthquake (M~8.0) are two of the most devastating earthquake those struck Tokyo Metropolitan area, respectively. These earthquakes brought large (~5 m) tsunami to the coast area and uplifted the Miura peninsula by ~1.4 m. The tide gauge station, moreover, records the subsidence during the interseismic period before and after the 1923 earthquake. Present study clarifies the past Kanto earthquake prior to the 1703 earthquake based on the sedimentary analysis in the Koajiro bay of the southern Miura Peninsula. The continuous samples of inner bay fine sediments were taken by the boring survey using 3-m-long geoslicer. Three layers of coarse sediments, T1, T2, and T3 units from top toward bottom, are observed in the bay sediments at almost all the sites. These units are composed of mixture of materials such as shell fragments, rock clasts and gravel, and some of units have eroded the lower fine sediments, indicating the event deposits by the strong traction flow. The grain sizes of the bay sediments are grading upward and abruptly become larger after the deposition of the T1, T2 and T3 units. Very little diatom is observed in these units, but the total number of diatoms increase in the bay sediments. The ratio of the marine planktonic species against the benthic species gradually rises from the lower part to the upper part in the bay sediment. In the tidal flat sediment, the freshwater planktonic species appear in place of the marine planktonic diatom. The changes of grain size and diatom species make a presumption that the sea depth suddenly becomes shallow by the event and deeper during the interseismic period. The T1, T2 and T3 units, thus, are correlated with the tsunami deposits conveyed by the Kanto earthquake. The T1 and T2 units are inferred to be the tsunami

  6. Earthquakes (United States)

    An earthquake happens when two blocks of the earth suddenly slip past one another. Earthquakes strike suddenly, violently, and without warning at any time of the day or night. If an earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause ...

  7. Implications of the earthquake cycle for inferring fault locking on the Cascadia megathrust (United States)

    Pollitz, F. F.; Evans, E. L.


    GPS velocity fields in the Western US have been interpreted with various physical models of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system: (1) time-independent block models; (2) time-dependent viscoelastic-cycle models, where deformation is driven by viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle from past faulting events; (3) viscoelastic block models, a time-dependent variation of the block model. All three models are generally driven by a combination of loading on locked faults and (aseismic) fault creep. Here we construct viscoelastic block models and viscoelastic-cycle models for the Western US, focusing on the Pacific Northwest and the earthquake cycle on the Cascadia megathrust. In the viscoelastic block model, the western US is divided into blocks selected from an initial set of 137 microplates using the method of Total Variation Regularization, allowing potential trade-offs between faulting and megathrust coupling to be determined algorithmically from GPS observations. Fault geometry, slip rate, and locking rates (i.e. the locking fraction times the long term slip rate) are estimated simultaneously within the TVR block model. For a range of mantle asthenosphere viscosity (4.4 × 1018 to 3.6 × 1020 Pa s) we find that fault locking on the megathrust is concentrated in the uppermost 20 km in depth, and a locking rate contour line of 30 mm yr-1 extends deepest beneath the Olympic Peninsula, characteristics similar to previous time-independent block model results. These results are corroborated by viscoelastic-cycle modelling. The average locking rate required to fit the GPS velocity field depends on mantle viscosity, being higher the lower the viscosity. Moreover, for viscosity ≲ 1020 Pa s, the amount of inferred locking is higher than that obtained using a time-independent block model. This suggests that time-dependent models for a range of admissible viscosity structures could refine our knowledge of the locking distribution and its epistemic

  8. Source parameters of the Bay of Bengal earthquake of 21 May 2014 and related seismotectonics of 85°E and 90°E ridges (United States)

    Prakash, Rajesh; Prajapati, Sanjay Kumar; Srivastava, Hari Narain


    Source parameters of the Bay of Bengal earthquake of 21 May 2014 have been studied using full waveform inversion. Its source mechanism thus determined the orientation of the strike slip faulting as NW-SE/NE-SW. The occurrence of past earthquakes along the NE-SW nodal plane suggested its preference as the main fault which could result from the transmission of stresses from the Indian plate boundary. High stress drop of this earthquake (216 bar) is attributed to its location in the intraplate region, strike slip faulting and focus in the colder upper mantle. Comparison of the stress drop of deeper focus Hindukush earthquakes with that of the Bay of Bengal earthquake showed a smaller felt radius due to fractured lithosphere in the Himalayas vis-a-vis more efficient propagation of seismic waves in the peninsular region from the source region of this recent earthquake. The seismological evidence presented for the 85°E and 90°E ridges shows the predominance of strike slip faulting with thrusting on both the ridges. Integrating their source mechanism with that of the May 2014 earthquake, it could be inferred that the Bay of Bengal region (excluding Andaman Sumatra subduction zone) is characterised predominantly by strike slip faulting in the region north of latitude 20°N and strike slip with thrusting in the remaining portion.

  9. Direct and array observations for near source dynamic strain during large earthquakes (United States)

    Huang, Bor-Shouh; Huang, Win-Gee; Lin, Chin-Jen


    The seismic ground motions from the 1999 Chi-Chi Taiwan earthquake (ML=7.6) and it large aftershocks were well recorded by a dense seismic array (named the Hualien Large Scale Seismic Test, HLSST) in near source distances. The HLSST site was situated in the the site of Hualien Veteran's Marble Plant. It included one scaled down reinforced concrete cylindrical containment model (1/4 scale). The radius of this cylindrical model is of about 5.4 meters. The instrumentation of this program consisted of forty-two stations. They were fifteen surface accelerometers, twelve downhole accelerometers and fifteen containment structure response accelerometers. The fifteen free-field stations were installed at three arms. The twelve downhole accelerometers were distributed beneath this array. One delta ground strain gauge was commonly installed in this site and well recorded those events. In this study, we inferred ground strains by a least-squares fit of array translational ground-motion data using the method proposed by Spudich et al. (1995) and Spudich and Fletcher (2008) and the same as from strain gauge records. We analyzed the main shock and November 1 offshore event for ground rotations and the same as ground strains. We will discuss the relationship of observed spatial ground deformations with source rupture processes and onsite ground translations. We hope to discuss its implications also about earthquake engineering applications.

  10. Earthquakes. (United States)

    Pakiser, Louis C.

    One of a series of general interest publications on science topics, the booklet provides those interested in earthquakes with an introduction to the subject. Following a section presenting an historical look at the world's major earthquakes, the booklet discusses earthquake-prone geographic areas, the nature and workings of earthquakes, earthquake…

  11. Inversion of GPS-measured coseismic displacements for source parameters of Taiwan earthquake (United States)

    Lin, J. T.; Chang, W. L.; Hung, H. K.; Yu, W. C.


    We performed a method of determining earthquake location, focal mechanism, and centroid moment tensor by coseismic surface displacements from daily and high-rate GPS measurements. Unlike commonly used dislocation model where fault geometry is calculated nonlinearly, our method makes a point source approach to evaluate these parameters in a solid and efficient way without a priori fault information and can thus provide constrains to subsequent finite source modeling of fault slip. In this study, we focus on the resolving ability of GPS data for moderate (Mw=6.0 7.0) earthquakes in Taiwan, and four earthquakes were investigated in detail: the March 27 2013 Nantou (Mw=6.0), the June 2 2013 Nantou (Mw=6.3) , the October 31 2013 Ruisui (Mw=6.3), and the March 31 2002 Hualien (ML=6.8) earthquakes. All these events were recorded by the Taiwan continuous GPS network with data sampling rates of 30-second and 1 Hz, where the Mw6.3 Ruisui earthquake was additionally recorded by another local GPS network with a sampling rate of 20 Hz. Our inverted focal mechanisms of all these earthquakes are consistent with the results of GCMT and USGS that evaluates source parameters by dynamic information from seismic waves. We also successfully resolved source parameters of the Mw6.3 Ruisui earthquake within only 10 seconds following the earthquake occurrence, demonstrating the potential of high-rate GPS data on earthquake early warning and real-time determination of earthquake source parameters.

  12. Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper


    Chapter 9: This contribution concerns statistical inference for parametric models used in stochastic geometry and based on quick and simple simulation free procedures as well as more comprehensive methods based on a maximum likelihood or Bayesian approach combined with markov chain Monte Carlo...... (MCMC) techniques. Due to space limitations the focus is on spatial point processes....

  13. Implications of the earthquake cycle for inferring fault locking on the Cascadia megathrust (United States)

    Pollitz, Fred; Evans, Eileen


    GPS velocity fields in the Western US have been interpreted with various physical models of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system: (1) time-independent block models; (2) time-dependent viscoelastic-cycle models, where deformation is driven by viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle from past faulting events; (3) viscoelastic block models, a time-dependent variation of the block model. All three models are generally driven by a combination of loading on locked faults and (aseismic) fault creep. Here we construct viscoelastic block models and viscoelastic-cycle models for the Western US, focusing on the Pacific Northwest and the earthquake cycle on the Cascadia megathrust. In the viscoelastic block model, the western US is divided into blocks selected from an initial set of 137 microplates using the method of Total Variation Regularization, allowing potential trade-offs between faulting and megathrust coupling to be determined algorithmically from GPS observations. Fault geometry, slip rate, and locking rates (i.e. the locking fraction times the long term slip rate) are estimated simultaneously within the TVR block model. For a range of mantle asthenosphere viscosity (4.4 × 1018 to 3.6 × 1020 Pa s) we find that fault locking on the megathrust is concentrated in the uppermost 20 km in depth, and a locking rate contour line of 30 mm yr−1 extends deepest beneath the Olympic Peninsula, characteristics similar to previous time-independent block model results. These results are corroborated by viscoelastic-cycle modelling. The average locking rate required to fit the GPS velocity field depends on mantle viscosity, being higher the lower the viscosity. Moreover, for viscosity ≲ 1020 Pa s, the amount of inferred locking is higher than that obtained using a time-independent block model. This suggests that time-dependent models for a range of admissible viscosity structures could refine our knowledge of the locking distribution and its epistemic

  14. Bayesian estimation of source parameters and associated Coulomb failure stress changes for the 2005 Fukuoka (Japan) Earthquake (United States)

    Dutta, Rishabh; Jónsson, Sigurjón; Wang, Teng; Vasyura-Bathke, Hannes


    Several researchers have studied the source parameters of the 2005 Fukuoka (northwestern Kyushu Island, Japan) earthquake (Mw 6.6) using teleseismic, strong motion and geodetic data. However, in all previous studies, errors of the estimated fault solutions have been neglected, making it impossible to assess the reliability of the reported solutions. We use Bayesian inference to estimate the location, geometry and slip parameters of the fault and their uncertainties using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar and Global Positioning System data. The offshore location of the earthquake makes the fault parameter estimation challenging, with geodetic data coverage mostly to the southeast of the earthquake. To constrain the fault parameters, we use a priori constraints on the magnitude of the earthquake and the location of the fault with respect to the aftershock distribution and find that the estimated fault slip ranges from 1.5 to 2.5 m with decreasing probability. The marginal distributions of the source parameters show that the location of the western end of the fault is poorly constrained by the data whereas that of the eastern end, located closer to the shore, is better resolved. We propagate the uncertainties of the fault model and calculate the variability of Coulomb failure stress changes for the nearby Kego fault, located directly below Fukuoka city, showing that the main shock increased stress on the fault and brought it closer to failure.

  15. Bayesian Estimation of Source Parameters and Associated Coulomb Failure Stress Changes for the 2005 Fukuoka (Japan) Earthquake

    KAUST Repository

    Dutta, Rishabh


    Several researchers have studied the source parameters of the 2005 Fukuoka (northwestern Kyushu Island, Japan) earthquake (MW 6.6) using teleseismic, strong motion and geodetic data. However, in all previous studies, errors of the estimated fault solutions have been neglected, making it impossible to assess the reliability of the reported solutions. We use Bayesian inference to estimate the location, geometry and slip parameters of the fault and their uncertainties using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and Global Positioning System (GPS) data. The offshore location of the earthquake makes the fault parameter estimation challenging, with geodetic data coverage mostly to the southeast of the earthquake. To constrain the fault parameters, we use a priori constraints on the magnitude of the earthquake and the location of the fault with respect to the aftershock distribution and find that the estimated fault slip ranges from 1.5 m to 2.5 m with decreasing probability. The marginal distributions of the source parameters show that the location of the western end of the fault is poorly constrained by the data whereas that of the eastern end, located closer to the shore, is better resolved. We propagate the uncertainties of the fault model and calculate the variability of Coulomb failure stress changes for the nearby Kego fault, located directly below Fukuoka city, showing that the mainshock increased stress on the fault and brought it closer to failure.

  16. Inferring fault rheology from low-frequency earthquakes on the San Andreas (United States)

    Beeler, Nicholas M.; Thomas, Amanda; Bürgmann, Roland; Shelly, David R.


    Families of recurring low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) within nonvolcanic tremor (NVT) on the San Andreas fault in central California show strong sensitivity to shear stress induced by the daily tidal cycle. LFEs occur at all levels of the tidal shear stress and are in phase with the very small, ~400 Pa, stress amplitude. To quantitatively explain the correlation, we use a model from the existing literature that assumes the LFE sources are small, persistent regions that repeatedly fail during shear of a much larger scale, otherwise aseismically creeping fault zone. The LFE source patches see tectonic loading, creep of the surrounding fault which may be modulated by the tidal stress, and direct tidal loading. If the patches are small relative to the surrounding creeping fault then the stressing is dominated by fault creep, and if patch failure occurs at a threshold stress, then the resulting seismicity rate is proportional to the fault creep rate or fault zone strain rate. Using the seismicity rate as a proxy for strain rate and the tidal shear stress, we fit the data with possible fault rheologies that produce creep in laboratory experiments at temperatures of 400 to 600°C appropriate for the LFE source depth. The rheological properties of rock-forming minerals for dislocation creep and dislocation glide are not consistent with the observed fault creep because strong correlation between small stress perturbations and strain rate requires perturbation on the order of the ambient stress. The observed tidal modulation restricts ambient stress to be at most a few kilopascal, much lower than rock strength. A purely rate dependent friction is consistent with the observations only if the product of the friction rate dependence and effective normal stress is ~ 0.5 kPa. Extrapolating the friction rate strengthening dependence of phyllosilicates (talc) to depth would require the effective normal stress to be ~50 kPa, implying pore pressure is lithostatic. If the LFE

  17. Earthquake source characteristics along the arcuate Himalayan belt ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    cesses were critically examined in the backdrop of Indian plate obliquity, stress obliquity, topography, and the late ... is the nodal area of major stress accumulation which is released occasionally in form of earthquakes. The lateral ..... earthquakes (solid red circles) and 11 historical damaging earthquakes (white solid stars).

  18. Source process of the October 12, 1992 Cairo earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. M. Hussein


    Full Text Available Broadband body waves recorded at 12 digital seismic stations worldwide were used to study the source process of the October 12, 1992 Cairo earthquake. To study the source process of this event the P and SH waveforms from IRIS data center were inverted to double couple source using the method Kikuchi and Kanamori (1991 in which the rupture is presented by discrete subevents with various mechanisms. The best solution consists of only one event with a mechanism 270°/47°/-123° (strike/dip/slip, a normal faulting mechanism with small strike slip component. This solution is almost compatible with the previously suggested mechanisms for the same event. This event took place at a depth of 22 km. This depth explains the lack of surface faulting. The seismic moment is 7.2 ´ 10 17 Nm (Mw = 5.8 with a source duration of 4 s. The estimated fault length is about 11 km, the derived average dislocation (D is 0.24 m, the stress drop (Ds is 1.85 MPa and the Orwan stress drop is 0.425 MPa.

  19. Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper

    (This text written by Jesper Møller, Aalborg University, is submitted for the collection ‘Stochastic Geometry: Highlights, Interactions and New Perspectives', edited by Wilfrid S. Kendall and Ilya Molchanov, to be published by ClarendonPress, Oxford, and planned to appear as Section 4.1 with the ......(This text written by Jesper Møller, Aalborg University, is submitted for the collection ‘Stochastic Geometry: Highlights, Interactions and New Perspectives', edited by Wilfrid S. Kendall and Ilya Molchanov, to be published by ClarendonPress, Oxford, and planned to appear as Section 4.......1 with the title ‘Inference'.) This contribution concerns statistical inference for parametric models used in stochastic geometry and based on quick and simple simulation free procedures as well as more comprehensive methods using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. Due to space limitations the focus...

  20. On the point-source approximation of earthquake dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Bizzarri


    Full Text Available The focus on the present study is on the point-source approximation of a seismic source. First, we compare the synthetic motions on the free surface resulting from different analytical evolutions of the seismic source (the Gabor signal (G, the Bouchon ramp (B, the Cotton and Campillo ramp (CC, the Yoffe function (Y and the Liu and Archuleta function (LA. Our numerical experiments indicate that the CC and the Y functions produce synthetics with larger oscillations and correspondingly they have a higher frequency content. Moreover, the CC and the Y functions tend to produce higher peaks in the ground velocity (roughly of a factor of two. We have also found that the falloff at high frequencies is quite different: it roughly follows ω−2 in the case of G and LA functions, it decays more faster than ω−2 for the B function, while it is slow than ω−1 for both the CC and the Y solutions. Then we perform a comparison of seismic waves resulting from 3-D extended ruptures (both supershear and subshear obeying to different governing laws against those from a single point-source having the same features. It is shown that the point-source models tend to overestimate the ground motions and that they completely miss the Mach fronts emerging from the supershear transition process. When we compare the extended fault solutions against a multiple point-sources model the agreement becomes more significant, although relevant discrepancies still persist. Our results confirm that, and more importantly quantify how, the point-source approximation is unable to adequately describe the radiation emitted during a real world earthquake, even in the most idealized case of planar fault with homogeneous properties and embedded in a homogeneous, perfectly elastic medium.

  1. A new software for deformation source optimization, the Bayesian Earthquake Analysis Tool (BEAT) (United States)

    Vasyura-Bathke, H.; Dutta, R.; Jonsson, S.; Mai, P. M.


    Modern studies of crustal deformation and the related source estimation, including magmatic and tectonic sources, increasingly use non-linear optimization strategies to estimate geometric and/or kinematic source parameters and often consider both jointly, geodetic and seismic data. Bayesian inference is increasingly being used for estimating posterior distributions of deformation source model parameters, given measured/estimated/assumed data and model uncertainties. For instance, some studies consider uncertainties of a layered medium and propagate these into source parameter uncertainties, while others use informative priors to reduce the model parameter space. In addition, innovative sampling algorithms have been developed to efficiently explore the high-dimensional parameter spaces. Compared to earlier studies, these improvements have resulted in overall more robust source model parameter estimates that include uncertainties. However, the computational burden of these methods is high and estimation codes are rarely made available along with the published results. Even if the codes are accessible, it is usually challenging to assemble them into a single optimization framework as they are typically coded in different programing languages. Therefore, further progress and future applications of these methods/codes are hampered, while reproducibility and validation of results has become essentially impossible. In the spirit of providing open-access and modular codes to facilitate progress and reproducible research in deformation source estimations, we undertook the effort of developing BEAT, a python package that comprises all the above-mentioned features in one single programing environment. The package builds on the pyrocko seismological toolbox (, and uses the pymc3 module for Bayesian statistical model fitting. BEAT is an open-source package (, and we encourage and solicit contributions to the project. Here, we

  2. Estimation of earthquake source parameters from GRACE observations of changes in Earth's gravitational potential field using normal modes (United States)

    Sterenborg, G.; Simons, F. J.; Welch, E.; Morrow, E.; Mitrovica, J. X.


    Since its launch in 2002, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has yielded tremendous insights into the spatio-temporal changes of mass redistribution in the Earth system. Such changes occur on widely varying spatial and temporal scales and take place both on Earth's surface, e.g., atmospheric mass fluctuations and the exchange of water, snow and ice, as well as in its interior, e.g., glacial isostatic adjustment and earthquakes. Each of these processes causes changes in the Earth's gravitational potential field which GRACE observes. One example is the Antarctic and Greenland ice mass changes inferred from GRACE observations of the changing geopotential as well as the associated time rate of change of its degree 2 and 4 zonal harmonics observed by satellite laser ranging. Deforming the Earth's surface and interior both co- and post-seismically, with some of the deformation permanent, earthquakes can affect the geopotential at a spatial scale up to thousands of kilometers and at temporal scales from seconds to months. Traditional measurements of earthquakes, e.g., by seismometers, GPS and inSAR, observe the co- and post-seismic surface displacements and are invaluable in understanding earthquake triggering mechanisms, slip distributions, rupture dynamics and slow post-seismic changes. Space-based observations of geopotential changes can add a whole new dimension to this as such observations are also sensitive to changes in the Earth's interior, over a larger area affected by the earthquake, over longer timescales, beyond that of Earth's longest period normal mode, and because they have global sensitivity including over sparsely instrumented oceanic domains. We use a joint seismic and gravitational normal-mode formalism to quantify changes in the gravitational potential due to different types of earthquakes, comparing them to predictions from dislocation models. We discuss the inverse problem of estimating the source parameters of large earthquakes

  3. Spatial Distribution of Landslides Triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake: Implications for Landslide Fluvial Mobilization and Earthquake Source Mechanism (United States)

    Li, G.; West, A.; Hilton, R. G.


    Assessing the spatial distribution of earthquake-induced landslides is important for quantifying the fluvial evacuation of landslide material [Hovius et al., 2011], for deriving information about earthquake sources [Meunier et al., 2013], and for understanding the role of earthquakes in shaping surface topography and in driving orogen evolution. The 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake is characterized by large magnitude, widespread coseismic landsliding, typical mountainous ridge-and-valley topography of the region, and comprehensive geophysical observation. Previous work on landslides associated with the Wenchuan earthquake has focused on the occurrences of landslide-induced hazards and spatial relations between the landslide locations and the seismic features (i.e., the surface ruptures and the epicenter) [e.g., Dai et al., 2011; Gorum et al., 2011]. Little attention has been paid to how the landslide distribution determines the fluvial mobilization of landslide material or quantitative landslide-earthquake source mechanism inversion, even though the Wenchuan event provides an ideal case study to explore these problems for a larger magnitude earthquake than has yet been considered. We obtained a landslide inventory for the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake using high-resolution remote imagery and a semi-automated mapping algorithm. Here we report the results from spatial and statistical analysis of this landslide map using a digital elevation model (DEM) framework. We present the probability distribution of primary parameters (i.e., slope, aspect, elevation, and area density of all landslides) of the landslide inventory and discuss their relations to regional topographic features (i.e., river channels and mountain ridges). The landslide-river channel connectivity and landslide mobility were estimated using different hillslope-channel transition cutoffs. The landslide density and the probability of slope failure were calculated for all lithological units within the Longmen

  4. History of ancient megathrust earthquakes beneath metropolitan Tokyo inferred from coastal lowland deposits (United States)

    Mannen, Kazutaka; Yoong, Kim Haeng; Suzuki, Shigeru; Matsushima, Yoshiaki; Ota, Yuki; Kain, Claire L.; Goff, James


    Metropolitan Tokyo is located directly above a subduction zone that has generated two megathrust earthquakes in the past 300 years. However, the timing of older megathrusts on this margin is poorly understood. In this study, we aim to constrain the timings of past megathrust earthquakes, using coastal stratigraphy, paleoecology, radiocarbon dating and archaeological records from coastal lowlands. An investigation of 13 boreholes in the southern coastal area of metropolitan Tokyo found evidence for 4 m of uplift in a 6000-year period. However, we found that net vertical displacement in the last 1000 years is approximately zero. Results suggest that preservation of usually ephemeral lagoon sediments occurred on three occasions in the past 1000 years, and radiocarbon dating results show that the timings of these preservation episodes are close to that of major historical earthquakes. We thus attribute the intermittent preservation of the ephemeral lagoon deposits to coseismic uplift caused by the megathrust earthquakes. The candidates of the megathrust earthquakes are events that took place in 1703 CE, the 13th century, and 878 CE. Since these events produced no net vertical displacement due to inter-seismic subsidence, we propose that earthquakes responsible for long-term uplift of this region took place prior to the 9th century. This research also demonstrates the value of preserved intertidal sediments as paleoseismological archives where net tectonic displacement is neutral.

  5. Source of 1755 Lisbon earthquake and tsunami investigated (United States)

    Zitellini, Nevio; Mendes, L. A.; Cordoba, D.; Danobeitia, J.; Nicolich, R.; Pellis, G.; Ribeiro, A.; Sartori, R.; Torelli, L.; Bartolome, R.; Bortoluzzi, G.; Calafato, A.; Carrilho, F.; Casoni, L.; Chierici, F.; Corela, C.; Correggiari, A.; Della Vedova, B.; Gracia, E.; Jornet, P.; Landuzzi, M.; Ligi, M.; Magagnoli, A.; Marozzi, G.; Matias, L.; Penitenti, D.; Rodriguez, P.; Rovere, M.; Terrinha, P.; Vigliotti, L.; Ruiz, A. Zahinos

    On November 1, 1755, the city of Lisbon was completely devastated by the combined effect of a tremendous earthquake, tsunami waves, and fire. The 1755 Lisbon earthquake was the most destructive cataclysm recorded in western Europe since the Roman Republic, with an estimated earthquake magnitude Mw ˜8.5 [Martins and Mendes Victor, 1990] and estimated tsunami magnitude of Mt= Mw= 8.5. The earthquake was felt as far away as Great Britain and Finland. The tsunami hit many coastal cities along southwest Iberia and North Africa, causing heavy destruction in Tanger and Casablanca.

  6. Site Effects in the City of Port au Prince (Haiti) Inferred From 2010 Earthquake Aftershocks Recordings. (United States)

    ST Fleur, S.; Courboulex, F.; Bertrand, E.; Deschamps, A.; Mercier De Lepinay, B. F.; Boisson, D.; Prepetit, C.; Hough, S. E.


    The Haitian earthquake of 12 January 2010 (Mw=7) caused an unprecedented disaster in Port-au-Prince as well as in smaller cities close to the epicenter. The extent of damage appears to be initially attributed to the proximity of the earthquake in Port-au-Prince, the extreme vulnerability of many structures, and a high population density. However, the damage distribution for this earthquake suggests a general correlation of damage with small-scale topographical features and local geological structure. The main objective of this work is to investigate site effects in the city of Port-au-Prince. It is also to better define the response of different sites to earthquakes and establish transfer functions between each site and a particular site defined as a reference site. Specific soil columns is determined in the vicinity of each station in order to carry out 1D simulations of soil response at these sites. About 90 earthquakes (2Sismo at school" network. We located 39 of these events using the permanent network and 43 were located by Douilly et al. (2013) using a temporary network. The ground motion recordings at these stations were then analyzed in order to study the topographic and lithologic amplification effects observed on these sites. To quantify site effects under each station, we have used classical spectral ratio methods. In a first step, the HVSR earthquake method (Horizontal over Vertical ratio) was used to choose a reference station in Port au Prince that should be ideally a station without any site effects. We selected HCEA station as reference station. In a second step, we estimated the transfer function at each station by the SSR (Standard Spectral Ratio). Finally, these transfer functions estimated by the spectral ratios technique were compared to 1D simulations. We evidenced the existence of a possible surface wave effects in the plain of Port-au-Prince and topographical effects in the hills of Canape-vert.

  7. Earthquake statistics inferred from plastic events in soft-glassy materials

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benzi, Roberto; Toschi, Federico; Trampert, Jeannot


    We propose a new approach for generating synthetic earthquake catalogues based on the physics of soft glasses. The continuum approach produces yield-stress materials based on Lattice-Boltzmann simulations. We show that, if the material is stimulated below yield stress, plastic events occur, which

  8. Inferring earthquake physics and chemistry using an integrated field and laboratory approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Niemeijer, A.; Di Toro, G.; Griffith, W.A.; Bistacchi, A.; Smith, S.A.F.; Nielsen, S.


    Earthquakes are the result of a combination of (1) physico-chemical processes operating in fault zones, which allow ruptures to nucleate and rock friction to decrease with increasing slip or slip rate, and (2) of the geometrical complexity of fault zones. In this review paper, we summarize recent

  9. Source study of the Jan Mayen transform fault strike-slip earthquakes (United States)

    Rodríguez-Pérez, Q.; Ottemöller, L.


    Seismic source parameters of oceanic transform zone earthquakes have been relatively poorly studied. Previous studies showed that this type of earthquakes has unique characteristics such as not only the relatively common occurrence of slow events with weak seismic radiation at high frequencies but also the occurrence of some events that have high apparent stress indicating strong high frequency radiation. We studied 5 strike-slip earthquakes in the Jan Mayen fracture zone with magnitudes in the range of 5.9 centroid time delay compared to other oceanic transform fault earthquakes.

  10. Comparison of earthquake source parameters and interseismic plate coupling variations in global subduction zones (Invited) (United States)

    Bilek, S. L.; Moyer, P. A.; Stankova-Pursley, J.


    Geodetically determined interseismic coupling variations have been found in subduction zones worldwide. These coupling variations have been linked to heterogeneities in interplate fault frictional conditions. These connections to fault friction imply that observed coupling variations are also important in influencing details in earthquake rupture behavior. Because of the wealth of newly available geodetic models along many subduction zones, it is now possible to examine detailed variations in coupling and compare to seismicity characteristics. Here we use a large catalog of earthquake source time functions and slip models for moderate to large magnitude earthquakes to explore these connections, comparing earthquake source parameters with available models of geodetic coupling along segments of the Japan, Kurile, Kamchatka, Peru, Chile, and Alaska subduction zones. In addition, we use published geodetic results along the Costa Rica margin to compare with source parameters of small magnitude earthquakes recorded with an onshore-offshore network of seismometers. For the moderate to large magnitude earthquakes, preliminary results suggest a complex relationship between earthquake parameters and estimates of strongly and weakly coupled segments of the plate interface. For example, along the Kamchatka subduction zone, these earthquakes occur primarily along the transition between strong and weak coupling, with significant heterogeneity in the pattern of moment scaled duration with respect to the coupling estimates. The longest scaled duration event in this catalog occurred in a region of strong coupling. Earthquakes along the transition between strong and weakly coupled exhibited the most complexity in the source time functions. Use of small magnitude (0.5 earthquake spectra, with higher corner frequencies and higher mean apparent stress for earthquakes that occur in along the Osa Peninsula relative to the Nicoya Peninsula, mimicking the along-strike variations in

  11. Mechanism of High Frequency Shallow Earthquake Source in Mount Soputan, North Sulawesi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasa Suparman


    Full Text Available DOI: 10.17014/ijog.v6i3.122Moment tensor analysis had been conducted to understand the source mechanism of earthquakes in Soputan Volcano during October - November 2010 period. The record shows shallow earthquakes with frequency about 5 - 9 Hz. Polarity distribution of P-wave first onset indicates that the recorded earthquakes are predominated by earthquakes where almost at all stations have the same direction of P-wave first motions, and earthquakes with upward first motions.In this article, the source mechanism is described as the second derivative of moment tensor, approached with first motion amplitude inversion of P-wave at some seismic stations. The result of moment tensor decomposition are predominated by earthquakes with big percentage in ISO and CLVD component. Focal mechanism shows that the recorded earthquakes have the same strike in northeast-southwest direction with dip about 400 - 600. The sources of the high frequency shallow earthquakes are in the form of tensile-shear cracks or a combination between crack and tensile faulting.

  12. Upper-mantle water stratification inferred from observations of the 2012 Indian Ocean earthquake. (United States)

    Masuti, Sagar; Barbot, Sylvain D; Karato, Shun-Ichiro; Feng, Lujia; Banerjee, Paramesh


    Water, the most abundant volatile in Earth's interior, preserves the young surface of our planet by catalysing mantle convection, lubricating plate tectonics and feeding arc volcanism. Since planetary accretion, water has been exchanged between the hydrosphere and the geosphere, but its depth distribution in the mantle remains elusive. Water drastically reduces the strength of olivine and this effect can be exploited to estimate the water content of olivine from the mechanical response of the asthenosphere to stress perturbations such as the ones following large earthquakes. Here, we exploit the sensitivity to water of the strength of olivine, the weakest and most abundant mineral in the upper mantle, and observations of the exceptionally large (moment magnitude 8.6) 2012 Indian Ocean earthquake to constrain the stratification of water content in the upper mantle. Taking into account a wide range of temperature conditions and the transient creep of olivine, we explain the transient deformation in the aftermath of the earthquake that was recorded by continuous geodetic stations along Sumatra as the result of water- and stress-activated creep of olivine. This implies a minimum water content of about 0.01 per cent by weight-or 1,600 H atoms per million Si atoms-in the asthenosphere (the part of the upper mantle below the lithosphere). The earthquake ruptured conjugate faults down to great depths, compatible with dry olivine in the oceanic lithosphere. We attribute the steep rheological contrast to dehydration across the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary, presumably by buoyant melt migration to form the oceanic crust.

  13. Ground Motion Prediction for Great Interplate Earthquakes in Kanto Basin Considering Variation of Source Parameters (United States)

    Sekiguchi, H.; Yoshimi, M.; Horikawa, H.


    Broadband ground motions are estimated in the Kanto sedimentary basin which holds Tokyo metropolitan area inside for anticipated great interplate earthquakes along surrounding plate boundaries. Possible scenarios of great earthquakes along Sagami trough are modeled combining characteristic properties of the source area and adequate variation in source parameters in order to evaluate possible ground motion variation due to next Kanto earthquake. South to the rupture area of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake along the Japan trench, we consider possible M8 earthquake. The ground motions are computed with a four-step hybrid technique. We first calculate low-frequency ground motions at the engineering basement. We then calculate higher-frequency ground motions at the same position, and combine the lower- and higher-frequency motions using a matched filter. We finally calculate ground motions at the surface by computing the response of the alluvium-diluvium layers to the combined motions at the engineering basement.

  14. Estimates of source parameters of M4.9 Kharsali earthquake using waveform modelling (United States)

    Paul, Ajay; Kumar, Naresh


    This paper presents the computation of time series of the 22 July 2007 M 4.9 Kharsali earthquake. It occurred close to the Main Central Thrust (MCT) where seismic gap exists. The main shock and 17 aftershocks were located by closely spaced eleven seismograph stations in a network that involved VSAT based real-time seismic monitoring. The largest aftershock of M 3.5 and other aftershocks occurred within a small volume of 4 × 4 km horizontal extent and between depths of 10 and 14 km. The values of seismic moment ( M ∘) determined using P-wave spectra and Brune's model based on f 2 spectral shape ranges from 1018 to 1023 dyne-cm. The initial aftershocks occurred at greater depth compared to the later aftershocks. The time series of ground motion have been computed for recording sites using geometric ray theory and Green's function approach. The method for computing time series consists in integrating the far-field contributions of Green's function for a number of distributed point source. The generated waveforms have been compared with the observed ones. It has been inferred that the Kharsali earthquake occurred due to a northerly dipping low angle thrust fault at a depth of 14 km taking strike N279°E, dip 14° and rake 117°. There are two regions on the fault surface which have larger slip amplitudes (asperities) and the rupture which has been considered as circular in nature initiated from the asperity at a greater depth shifting gradually upwards. The two asperities cover only 10% of the total area of the causative fault plane. However, detailed seismic imaging of these two asperities can be corroborated with structural heterogeneities associated with causative fault to understand how seismogenesis is influenced by strong or weak structural barriers in the region.

  15. Sparse Spatio-temporal Inference of Electromagnetic Brain Sources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stahlhut, Carsten; Attias, Hagai Thomas; Wipf, David


    The electromagnetic brain activity measured via MEG (or EEG) can be interpreted as arising from a collection of current dipoles or sources located throughout the cortex. Because the number of candidate locations for these sources is much larger than the number of sensors, source reconstruction......, this paper develops a hierarchical, spatio-temporal Bayesian model that accommodates the principled computation of sparse spatial and smooth temporal M/EEG source reconstructions consistent with neurophysiological assumptions in a variety of event-related imaging paradigms. The underlying methodology relies......-suited for estimation problems that arise from other brain imaging modalities such as functional or diffusion weighted MRI....

  16. Correlation of Earthquake Locations with Volumetric Source Components in TauTona Gold Mine, South Africa (United States)

    Kane, D. L.; Boettcher, M. S.


    We investigate the source characteristics of earthquakes in TauTona Gold Mine, South Africa, to test if the location of earthquakes relative to mining structures is correlated with significant isotropic source behavior. Earthquakes are well monitored in TauTona Mine, where underground near-source stations record smaller events and higher frequency energy than can generally be observed using surface stations. Our dataset includes -4 mine, including faults, dikes, tunnels, and stopes, are well known from detailed geologic mapping and surveyed mine plans. We use data collected between 2004 and 2009 from the in-mine array (1-6 kHz), the Natural Earthquake Laboratory in South African Mines (NELSAM) project stations (6-12 kHz), and a short-term PASSCAL experiment (200 Hz) to study source mechanism variability and correlation with mapped structures within the mine. Previous studies of earthquakes in mines suggest a relationship between earthquake size and isotropic moment tensor source characteristics. In TauTona Mine, earthquakes with significant implosive source characteristics tend to be infrequent, larger events (Mw > 1.5), whereas earthquakes with significant explosive source characteristics tend to be smaller (Mw closure of tunnels and stopes within the mine, whereas the smallest recorded explosive events can be interpreted as opening cracks that form at the edges of mining structures. Double-couple type sources occur throughout the full magnitude range, and are often located along mapped faults and dikes. We focus our analysis on earthquakes located near the NELSAM stations in the deepest part of the mine, and on earthquakes located at depths greater than the current extent of mining. High precision relative hypocenter relocation performed using the 3-D extensive seismic array provides excellent constraints on location of events. We compute full moment tensor solutions for events using amplitude measurements of individual arrival phases, including nearfield phases

  17. Non-Stationary Modelling and Simulation of Near-Source Earthquake Ground Motion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skjærbæk, P. S.; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Fouskitakis, G. N.

    This paper is concerned with modelling and simulation of near-source earthquake ground motion. Recent studies have revealed that these motions show heavy non-stationary behaviour with very low frequencies dominating parts of the earthquake sequence. Modelling and simulation of this behaviour...... by an epicentral distance of 16 km and measured during the 1979 Imperial valley earthquake in California (USA). The results of the study indicate that while all three approaches can succesfully predict near-source ground motions, the Neural Network based one gives somewhat poorer simulation results....

  18. Non-Stationary Modelling and Simulation of Near-Source Earthquake Ground Motion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skjærbæk, P. S.; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Fouskitakis, G. N.


    This paper is concerned with modelling and simulation of near-source earthquake ground motion. Recent studies have revealed that these motions show heavy non-stationary behaviour with very low frequencies dominating parts of the earthquake sequence. Modeling and simulation of this behaviour...... by an epicentral distance of 16 km and measured during the 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake in California (U .S .A.). The results of the study indicate that while all three approaches can successfully predict near-source ground motions, the Neural Network based one gives somewhat poorer simulation results....

  19. Pseudo-dynamic source modelling with 1-point and 2-point statistics of earthquake source parameters

    KAUST Repository

    Song, S. G.


    Ground motion prediction is an essential element in seismic hazard and risk analysis. Empirical ground motion prediction approaches have been widely used in the community, but efficient simulation-based ground motion prediction methods are needed to complement empirical approaches, especially in the regions with limited data constraints. Recently, dynamic rupture modelling has been successfully adopted in physics-based source and ground motion modelling, but it is still computationally demanding and many input parameters are not well constrained by observational data. Pseudo-dynamic source modelling keeps the form of kinematic modelling with its computational efficiency, but also tries to emulate the physics of source process. In this paper, we develop a statistical framework that governs the finite-fault rupture process with 1-point and 2-point statistics of source parameters in order to quantify the variability of finite source models for future scenario events. We test this method by extracting 1-point and 2-point statistics from dynamically derived source models and simulating a number of rupture scenarios, given target 1-point and 2-point statistics. We propose a new rupture model generator for stochastic source modelling with the covariance matrix constructed from target 2-point statistics, that is, auto- and cross-correlations. Our sensitivity analysis of near-source ground motions to 1-point and 2-point statistics of source parameters provides insights into relations between statistical rupture properties and ground motions. We observe that larger standard deviation and stronger correlation produce stronger peak ground motions in general. The proposed new source modelling approach will contribute to understanding the effect of earthquake source on near-source ground motion characteristics in a more quantitative and systematic way.

  20. The Aleutian Tsunami of 1946: the Compound Earthquake-Landslide Source and Near-Field Modeling (United States)

    Fryer, G. J.; Yamazaki, Y.; McMurtry, G. M.


    The tsunami of April 1, 1946, spread death and destruction throughout the Pacific from the Aleutians to Antarctica, and produced exceptional runup, 42 m, at Scotch Cap on Unimak Island in the near field. López & Okal (2006) showed that the triggering earthquake was at least MW = 8.6, large enough to explain the far-field tsunami but still requiring a landslide or other secondary source to achieve the local runup. No convincing landslide was found until von Huene, et al (2014) merged all available multibeam data and reprocessed a old multichannel line to show that a feature on the Aleutian Terrace they call Lone Knoll (LK) is the displaced block of a translational slide. From 210Pb dating of push cores taken near the summit of LK, we find that a disruption in sedimentation occurred in 1946 at one site, but sedimentation was not disrupted at another site nearby. We infer that the slide block moved coherently at a speed close to the threshold for erosion of the hemipelagic clays. From GLORIA sidescan, Fryer, et al (2004) had earlier tentatively identified LK as a landslide deposit, but if the tsunami crossed the shallow Aleutian Shelf at the long-wave speed, that landslide had to extend up to the shelf edge to satisfy the known 48-min travel time to Scotch Cap. The resulting landslide was enormous, and a multibeam survey later in 2004 showed that it could not exist. The slide imaged by von Huene, et al is far smaller, with a headwall 30 km downslope at a depth of 3 km. The greater distance demands that the tsunami travel much faster across the shelf. The huge runup, however, suggests that wave height was a significant fraction of the water depth (only 80 m), so the tsunami probably crossed the Aleutian Shelf as a bore. From modeling the landslide-generated tsunami with a shock-capturing dispersive code we infer that it did indeed cross the shelf as a bore traveling at roughly twice the long-wave speed. We are still exploring the dependence of the tsunami on slide

  1. Analysis of source spectra, attenuation, and site effects from central and eastern United States earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindley, G.


    This report describes the results from three studies of source spectra, attenuation, and site effects of central and eastern United States earthquakes. In the first study source parameter estimates taken from 27 previous studies were combined to test the assumption that the earthquake stress drop is roughly a constant, independent of earthquake size. 200 estimates of stress drop and seismic moment from eastern North American earthquakes were combined. It was found that the estimated stress drop from the 27 studies increases approximately as the square-root of the seismic moment, from about 3 bars at 10 20 dyne-cm to 690 bars at 10 25 dyne-cm. These results do not support the assumption of a constant stress drop when estimating ground motion parameters from eastern North American earthquakes. In the second study, broadband seismograms recorded by the United States National Seismograph Network and cooperating stations have been analysed to determine Q Lg as a function of frequency in five regions: the northeastern US, southeastern US, central US, northern Basin and Range, and California and western Nevada. In the third study, using spectral analysis, estimates have been made for the anelastic attenuation of four regional phases, and estimates have been made for the source parameters of 27 earthquakes, including the M b 5.6, 14 April, 1995, West Texas earthquake

  2. Source parameters of microearthquakes on an interplate asperity off Kamaishi, NE Japan over two earthquake cycles (United States)

    Uchida, Naoki; Matsuzawa, Toru; Ellsworth, William L.; Imanishi, Kazutoshi; Shimamura, Kouhei; Hasegawa, Akira


    We have estimated the source parameters of interplate earthquakes in an earthquake cluster off Kamaishi, NE Japan over two cycles of M~ 4.9 repeating earthquakes. The M~ 4.9 earthquake sequence is composed of nine events that occurred since 1957 which have a strong periodicity (5.5 ± 0.7 yr) and constant size (M4.9 ± 0.2), probably due to stable sliding around the source area (asperity). Using P- and S-wave traveltime differentials estimated from waveform cross-spectra, three M~ 4.9 main shocks and 50 accompanying microearthquakes (M1.5–3.6) from 1995 to 2008 were precisely relocated. The source sizes, stress drops and slip amounts for earthquakes of M2.4 or larger were also estimated from corner frequencies and seismic moments using simultaneous inversion of stacked spectral ratios. Relocation using the double-difference method shows that the slip area of the 2008 M~ 4.9 main shock is co-located with those of the 1995 and 2001 M~ 4.9 main shocks. Four groups of microearthquake clusters are located in and around the mainshock slip areas. Of these, two clusters are located at the deeper and shallower edge of the slip areas and most of these microearthquakes occurred repeatedly in the interseismic period. Two other clusters located near the centre of the mainshock source areas are not as active as the clusters near the edge. The occurrence of these earthquakes is limited to the latter half of the earthquake cycles of the M~ 4.9 main shock. Similar spatial and temporal features of microearthquake occurrence were seen for two other cycles before the 1995 M5.0 and 1990 M5.0 main shocks based on group identification by waveform similarities. Stress drops of microearthquakes are 3–11 MPa and are relatively constant within each group during the two earthquake cycles. The 2001 and 2008 M~ 4.9 earthquakes have larger stress drops of 41 and 27 MPa, respectively. These results show that the stress drop is probably determined by the fault properties and does not change

  3. Earthquakes (United States)

    ... Centers Evacuation Center Play Areas Animals in Public Evacuation Centers Pet Shelters Interim Guidelines for Animal Health and Control of Disease Transmission in Pet Shelters Protect Your Pets Earthquakes Language: English (US) Español (Spanish) Recommend on Facebook ...

  4. PhySIC_IST: cleaning source trees to infer more informative supertrees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douzery Emmanuel JP


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Supertree methods combine phylogenies with overlapping sets of taxa into a larger one. Topological conflicts frequently arise among source trees for methodological or biological reasons, such as long branch attraction, lateral gene transfers, gene duplication/loss or deep gene coalescence. When topological conflicts occur among source trees, liberal methods infer supertrees containing the most frequent alternative, while veto methods infer supertrees not contradicting any source tree, i.e. discard all conflicting resolutions. When the source trees host a significant number of topological conflicts or have a small taxon overlap, supertree methods of both kinds can propose poorly resolved, hence uninformative, supertrees. Results To overcome this problem, we propose to infer non-plenary supertrees, i.e. supertrees that do not necessarily contain all the taxa present in the source trees, discarding those whose position greatly differs among source trees or for which insufficient information is provided. We detail a variant of the PhySIC veto method called PhySIC_IST that can infer non-plenary supertrees. PhySIC_IST aims at inferring supertrees that satisfy the same appealing theoretical properties as with PhySIC, while being as informative as possible under this constraint. The informativeness of a supertree is estimated using a variation of the CIC (Cladistic Information Content criterion, that takes into account both the presence of multifurcations and the absence of some taxa. Additionally, we propose a statistical preprocessing step called STC (Source Trees Correction to correct the source trees prior to the supertree inference. STC is a liberal step that removes the parts of each source tree that significantly conflict with other source trees. Combining STC with a veto method allows an explicit trade-off between veto and liberal approaches, tuned by a single parameter. Performing large-scale simulations, we observe that STC

  5. PhySIC_IST: cleaning source trees to infer more informative supertrees. (United States)

    Scornavacca, Celine; Berry, Vincent; Lefort, Vincent; Douzery, Emmanuel J P; Ranwez, Vincent


    Supertree methods combine phylogenies with overlapping sets of taxa into a larger one. Topological conflicts frequently arise among source trees for methodological or biological reasons, such as long branch attraction, lateral gene transfers, gene duplication/loss or deep gene coalescence. When topological conflicts occur among source trees, liberal methods infer supertrees containing the most frequent alternative, while veto methods infer supertrees not contradicting any source tree, i.e. discard all conflicting resolutions. When the source trees host a significant number of topological conflicts or have a small taxon overlap, supertree methods of both kinds can propose poorly resolved, hence uninformative, supertrees. To overcome this problem, we propose to infer non-plenary supertrees, i.e. supertrees that do not necessarily contain all the taxa present in the source trees, discarding those whose position greatly differs among source trees or for which insufficient information is provided. We detail a variant of the PhySIC veto method called PhySIC_IST that can infer non-plenary supertrees. PhySIC_IST aims at inferring supertrees that satisfy the same appealing theoretical properties as with PhySIC, while being as informative as possible under this constraint. The informativeness of a supertree is estimated using a variation of the CIC (Cladistic Information Content) criterion, that takes into account both the presence of multifurcations and the absence of some taxa. Additionally, we propose a statistical preprocessing step called STC (Source Trees Correction) to correct the source trees prior to the supertree inference. STC is a liberal step that removes the parts of each source tree that significantly conflict with other source trees. Combining STC with a veto method allows an explicit trade-off between veto and liberal approaches, tuned by a single parameter.Performing large-scale simulations, we observe that STC+PhySIC_IST infers much more informative

  6. Bayesian Inference for Source Reconstruction: A Real-World Application (United States)


    for the reconstruction of the location and emission rate from an actual contaminant source (emission from the Chalk River Laboratories medical isotope...consists of a comprehensive network of seismic, hydroacoustic , 6 International Scholarly Research Notices Figure 1: Locations of the three sampling stations...was at Chalk River Laboratories . infrasound, and radionuclide sensors as part of the verification regime of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test- Ban Treaty

  7. Estimation of earthquake source parameters in the Kachchh seismic ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    SEISAN software has been used to locate the identified local earthquakes, which were recorded at least three or more stations of the Kachchh seismological network. Three component spectra of S-wave are being inverted by using the Levenberg–Marquardt non-linear inversion technique, wherein the inversion scheme is ...

  8. Earthquake source characteristics along the arcuate Himalayan belt ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The occurrences of moderate to large magnitude earthquakes and associated subsurface geological processes were critically examined in the backdrop of Indian plate obliquity, stress obliquity, topography, and the late Tertiary regional tectonics for understanding the evolving dynamics and kinematics in the central part of ...

  9. 1 Comparison of Earthquake Source Characteristics in the Kachchh ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)


    Empirical relations for Mo versus fc, Mo versus r, and Mo versus ∆σ, for both KRB and SH regions, were obtained by least square fitting (Figures 9a-d, Equations 13–21). For the KRB, these relationships are obtained for different sets of magnitude ranges viz., for Mw 1.5-3.8 and ...... International Handbook of Earthquake.

  10. Estimation of earthquake source parameters in the Kachchh seismic ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Durgada Nagamani


    Jul 25, 2017 ... local earthquakes, which were recorded at least three or more stations of the Kachchh seismological network. ... SAC Software (seismic analysis code) is being utilized for calculating three-component displacement and velocity spectra of ...... Press W H et al. 1992 Numerical recipes in Fortran and C;.

  11. Earthquake source characteristics along the arcuate Himalayan belt ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The occurrences of moderate to large magnitude earthquakes and associated subsurface geological pro- cesses were critically examined in the backdrop of Indian plate obliquity, stress obliquity, topography, and the late Tertiary regional tectonics for understanding the evolving dynamics and kinematics in the central part of ...

  12. Earthquake source model using strong motion displacement as ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The strong motion displacement records available during an earthquake can be treated as the response of the earth as the a structural system to unknown forces acting at unknown locations. Thus, if the part of the earth participating in ground motion is modelled as a known finite elastic medium, one can attempt to model the ...

  13. Earthquake Source Parameters for the 2010 Western Gulf of Aden Rifting Episode (United States)

    Shuler, A. E.; Nettles, M.


    In November 2010, one of the largest swarms of earthquakes ever recorded in an extensional oceanic setting took place in the western Gulf of Aden. Within a 24-hour period, over 100 earthquakes were detected teleseismically on an ~80-km section of the east-west trending Aden Ridge. In this area, northeastward motion of the Arabian plate relative to the Somalian plate is accommodated by oblique spreading in lithosphere that is intermediate between continental and oceanic. These earthquakes occurred in an area that was previously characterized by low levels of seismicity and a lack of recent volcanism on the seafloor. In this study, we use data from the Global Seismographic Network to calculate centroid-moment-tensor (CMT) solutions for 110 earthquakes with magnitudes 4.5 ≤ Mw ≤ 5.5. We find that the rifting episode is dominated by normal-faulting earthquakes located in the axial valley between 43.75° and 44.5°E, although a small number of right-lateral strike-slip earthquakes are also observed. The earthquakes are clustered into two groups surrounding 44°E, where the axial valley changes orientation, depth and width. These groups correspond to mapped rhombic basins, which were active at different times during the sequence. Overall there is excellent agreement between the orientations of previously mapped faults and fault-plane solutions from CMT analysis, indicating that the earthquakes likely occurred on pre-existing faults in the axial valley. Focal depth estimates for the largest earthquakes are between 1.5-2.5 kilometers below the seafloor. Tension axes for these earthquakes indicate that the stretching direction is N19°E, which is intermediate between the spreading and rift-orthogonal directions. This result agrees well with published analogue models of oblique rifting, with and without the presence of magma. We infer that this swarm of earthquakes was caused by laterally propagating dike intrusions because it shares many characteristics with dike

  14. The Implications of Strike-Slip Earthquake Source Properties on the Transform Boundary Development Process (United States)

    Neely, J. S.; Huang, Y.; Furlong, K.


    Subduction-Transform Edge Propagator (STEP) faults, produced by the tearing of a subducting plate, allow us to study the development of a transform plate boundary and improve our understanding of both long-term geologic processes and short-term seismic hazards. The 280 km long San Cristobal Trough (SCT), formed by the tearing of the Australia plate as it subducts under the Pacific plate near the Solomon and Vanuatu subduction zones, shows along-strike variations in earthquake behaviors. The segment of the SCT closest to the tear rarely hosts earthquakes > Mw 6, whereas the SCT sections more than 80 - 100 km from the tear experience Mw7 earthquakes with repeated rupture along the same segments. To understand the effect of cumulative displacement on SCT seismicity, we analyze b-values, centroid-time delays and corner frequencies of the SCT earthquakes. We use the spectral ratio method based on Empirical Green's Functions (eGfs) to isolate source effects from propagation and site effects. We find high b-values along the SCT closest to the tear with values decreasing with distance before finally increasing again towards the far end of the SCT. Centroid time-delays for the Mw 7 strike-slip earthquakes increase with distance from the tear, but corner frequency estimates for a recent sequence of Mw 7 earthquakes are approximately equal, indicating a growing complexity in earthquake behavior with distance from the tear due to a displacement-driven transform boundary development process (see figure). The increasing complexity possibly stems from the earthquakes along the eastern SCT rupturing through multiple asperities resulting in multiple moment pulses. If not for the bounding Vanuatu subduction zone at the far end of the SCT, the eastern SCT section, which has experienced the most displacement, might be capable of hosting larger earthquakes. When assessing the seismic hazard of other STEP faults, cumulative fault displacement should be considered a key input in

  15. Seismicity in the source areas of the 1896 and 1933 Sanriku earthquakes and implications for large near-trench earthquake faults (United States)

    Obana, Koichiro; Nakamura, Yasuyuki; Fujie, Gou; Kodaira, Shuichi; Kaiho, Yuka; Yamamoto, Yojiro; Miura, Seiichi


    In the northern part of the Japan Trench, the 1933 Showa-Sanriku earthquake (Mw 8.4), an outer-trench, normal-faulting earthquake, occurred 37 yr after the 1896 Meiji-Sanriku tsunami earthquake (Mw 8.0), a shallow, near-trench, plate-interface rupture. Tsunamis generated by both earthquakes caused severe damage along the Sanriku coast. Precise locations of earthquakes in the source areas of the 1896 and 1933 earthquakes have not previously been obtained because they occurred at considerable distances from the coast in deep water beyond the maximum operational depth of conventional ocean bottom seismographs (OBSs). In 2015, we incorporated OBSs designed for operation in deep water (ultradeep OBSs) in an OBS array during two months of seismic observations in the source areas of the 1896 and 1933 Sanriku earthquakes to investigate the relationship of seismicity there to outer-rise normal-faulting earthquakes and near-trench tsunami earthquakes. Our analysis showed that seismicity during our observation period occurred along three roughly linear trench-parallel trends in the outer-trench region. Seismic activity along these trends likely corresponds to aftershocks of the 1933 Showa-Sanriku earthquake and the Mw 7.4 normal-faulting earthquake that occurred 40 min after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. Furthermore, changes of the clarity of reflections from the oceanic Moho on seismic reflection profiles and low-velocity anomalies within the oceanic mantle were observed near the linear trends of the seismicity. The focal mechanisms we determined indicate that an extensional stress regime extends to about 40 km depth, below which the stress regime is compressional. These observations suggest that rupture during the 1933 Showa-Sanriku earthquake did not extend to the base of the oceanic lithosphere and that compound rupture of multiple or segmented faults is a more plausible explanation for that earthquake. The source area of the 1896 Meiji-Sanriku tsunami earthquake is

  16. Relevance of different prior knowledge sources for inferring gene interaction networks. (United States)

    Olsen, Catharina; Bontempi, Gianluca; Emmert-Streib, Frank; Quackenbush, John; Haibe-Kains, Benjamin


    When inferring networks from high-throughput genomic data, one of the main challenges is the subsequent validation of these networks. In the best case scenario, the true network is partially known from previous research results published in structured databases or research articles. Traditionally, inferred networks are validated against these known interactions. Whenever the recovery rate is gauged to be high enough, subsequent high scoring but unknown inferred interactions are deemed good candidates for further experimental validation. Therefore such validation framework strongly depends on the quantity and quality of published interactions and presents serious pitfalls: (1) availability of these known interactions for the studied problem might be sparse; (2) quantitatively comparing different inference algorithms is not trivial; and (3) the use of these known interactions for validation prevents their integration in the inference procedure. The latter is particularly relevant as it has recently been showed that integration of priors during network inference significantly improves the quality of inferred networks. To overcome these problems when validating inferred networks, we recently proposed a data-driven validation framework based on single gene knock-down experiments. Using this framework, we were able to demonstrate the benefits of integrating prior knowledge and expression data. In this paper we used this framework to assess the quality of different sources of prior knowledge on their own and in combination with different genomic data sets in colorectal cancer. We observed that most prior sources lead to significant F-scores. Furthermore, their integration with genomic data leads to a significant increase in F-scores, especially for priors extracted from full text PubMed articles, known co-expression modules and genetic interactions. Lastly, we observed that the results are consistent for three different data sets: experimental knock-down data and two

  17. An Earthquake Source Ontology for Seismic Hazard Analysis and Ground Motion Simulation (United States)

    Zechar, J. D.; Jordan, T. H.; Gil, Y.; Ratnakar, V.


    Representation of the earthquake source is an important element in seismic hazard analysis and earthquake simulations. Source models span a range of conceptual complexity - from simple time-independent point sources to extended fault slip distributions. Further computational complexity arises because the seismological community has established so many source description formats and variations thereof; what this means is that conceptually equivalent source models are often expressed in different ways. Despite the resultant practical difficulties, there exists a rich semantic vocabulary for working with earthquake sources. For these reasons, we feel it is appropriate to create a semantic model of earthquake sources using an ontology, a computer science tool from the field of knowledge representation. Unlike the domain of most ontology work to date, earthquake sources can be described by a very precise mathematical framework. Another uniqueness associated with developing such an ontology is that earthquake sources are often used as computational objects. A seismologist generally wants more than to simply construct a source and have it be well-formed and properly described; additionally, the source will be used for performing calculations. Representation and manipulation of complex mathematical objects presents a challenge to the ontology development community. In order to enable simulations involving many different types of source models, we have completed preliminary development of a seismic point source ontology. The use of an ontology to represent knowledge provides machine interpretability and the ability to validate logical consistency and completeness. Our ontology, encoded using the OWL Web Ontology Language - a standard from the World Wide Web Consortium, contains the conceptual definitions and relationships necessary for source translation services. For example, specification of strike, dip, rake, and seismic moment will automatically translate into a double

  18. Tidal Sensitivity of Declustered Low Frequency Earthquake Families and Inferred Creep Episodes on the San Andreas Fault (United States)

    Babb, A.; Thomas, A.; Bletery, Q.


    Low frequency earthquakes (LFEs) are detected at depths of 16-30 km on a 150 km section of the San Andreas Fault centered at Parkfield, CA. The LFEs are divided into 88 families based on waveform similarity. Each family is thought to represent a brittle asperity on the fault surface that repeatedly slips during aseismic slip of the surrounding fault. LFE occurrence is irregular which allows families to be divided into continuous and episodic. In continuous families a burst of a few LFE events recurs every few days while episodic families experience essentially quiescent periods often lasting months followed by bursts of hundreds of events over a few days. The occurrence of LFEs has also been shown to be sensitive to extremely small ( 1kPa) tidal stress perturbations. However, the clustered nature of LFE occurrence could potentially bias estimates of tidal sensitivity. Here we re-evaluate the tidal sensitivity of LFE families on the deep San Andreas using a declustered catalog. In this catalog LFE bursts are isolated based on the recurrence intervals between individual LFE events for each family. Preliminary analysis suggests that declustered LFE families are still highly sensitive to tidal stress perturbations, primarily right-lateral shear stress (RLSS) and to a lesser extent fault normal stress (FNS). We also find inferred creep episodes initiate preferentially during times of positive RLSS.

  19. Lithospheric folding by flexural slip in subduction zones as source for reverse fault intraslab earthquakes. (United States)

    Romeo, I; Álvarez-Gómez, J A


    Subduction requires the permanent generation of a bend fold in the subducting slab which mechanics is not well understood. Lithospheric bending of subducting slabs was traditionally considered to be accommodated by orthogonal flexure, generating extensional outer rise earthquakes responsible of the external arc elongation during folding. Here we explore the possibility of lithospheric flexure being accommodated through simple shear deformation parallel to the slab (folding by flexural slip) and evaluate this process as source of earthquakes. The seismicity predicted by flexural slip dominated slab bending explains a significant amount of intermediate earthquakes observed in subduction zones with different degrees of coupling. This mechanism predicts the generation of intraslab thrust earthquakes with fault planes subparallel to the slab top. Being the orientations of the fault planes the same for the interface thrust earthquakes and the flexural-slip intraslab earthquakes, the amount of seismic moment liberated by the interface could be significantly lower than considered before. This proposed seismic source should be taken into account in models and hazard studies of subduction zones. Determining the seismic generating processes in subduction zones and their characteristics is a fundamental issue for the correct assessment of the associated seismic and tsunami risk.

  20. Two items of evidence, no putative source: an inference problem in forensic intelligence. (United States)

    Taroni, Franco; Bozza, Silvia; Biedermann, Alex


    Intelligence analysts commonly associate cases on the basis of similarities found in compared characteristics of scientific evidence. The present paper studies some of the inferential difficulties associated with such operations. An analysis is proposed that breaks down the reasoning process into inference to common source, and inference to case linkage. The former requires an approach to the difficulty associated with evaluating the similarities of items of evidence from different cases with no putative source being available. The latter requires consideration to be given to the relevance of evidence. Throughout the paper, probability theory is used to describe the nature of the proposed inferences. Graphical models are also introduced with the aim of providing further insight into the dependence and independence relationships assumed to hold among the various propositions considered. Notions from decision theory are used to discuss ways in which intelligence analysts may assist investigators in deciding whether or not cases should be considered as linked.

  1. Earthquake Source Depths in the Zagros Mountains: A "Jelly Sandwich" or "Creme Brulee" Lithosphere? (United States)

    Adams, A. N.; Nyblade, A.; Brazier, R.; Rodgers, A.; Al-Amri, A.


    The Zagros Mountain Belt of southwestern Iran is one of the most seismically active mountain belts in the world. Previous studies of the depth distribution of earthquakes in this region have shown conflicting results. Early seismic studies of teleseismically recorded events found that earthquakes in the Zagros Mountains nucleated within both the upper crust and upper mantle, indicating that the lithosphere underlying the Zagros Mountains has a strong upper crust and a strong lithospheric mantle, separated by a weak lower crust. Such a model of lithospheric structure is called the "Jelly Sandwich" model. More recent teleseismic studies, however, found that earthquakes in the Zagros Mountains occur only within the upper crust, thus indicating that the strength of the Zagros Mountains' lithosphere is primarily isolated to the upper crust. This model of lithospheric structure is called the "crème brûlée" model. Analysis of regionally recorded earthquakes nucleating within the Zagros Mountains is presented here. Data primarily come from the Saudi Arabian National Digital Seismic Network, although data sources include many regional open and closed networks. The use of regionally recorded earthquakes facilitates the analysis of a larger dataset than has been used in previous teleseismic studies. Regional waveforms have been inverted for source parameters using a range of potential source depths to determine the best fitting source parameters and depths. Results indicate that earthquakes nucleate in two distinct zones. One seismogenic zone lies at shallow, upper crustal depths. The second seismogenic zone lies near the Moho. Due to uncertainty in the source and Moho depths, further study is needed to determine whether these deeper events are nucleating within the lower crust or the upper mantle.

  2. Fan-structure wave as a source of earthquake instability (United States)

    Tarasov, Boris


    Today frictional shear resistance along pre-existing faults is considered to be the lower limit on rock shear strength at confined compression corresponding to the seismogenic layer. This determines the lithospheric strength and the primary earthquake mechanism associated with frictional stick-slip instability on pre-existing faults. This paper introduces a recently identified shear rupture mechanism providing a paradoxical feature of hard rocks - the possibility of shear rupture propagation through the highly confined intact rock mass at shear stress levels significantly less than frictional strength. In the new mechanism the rock failure, associated with consecutive creation of small slabs (known as 'domino-blocks') from the intact rock in the rupture tip, is driven by a fan-shaped domino structure representing the rupture head. The fan-head combines such unique features as: extremely low shear resistance (below the frictional strength), self-sustaining stress intensification in the rupture tip (providing easy formation of new domino-blocks), and self-unbalancing conditions in the fan-head (making the failure process inevitably spontaneous and violent). An important feature of the fan-mechanism is the fact that for the initial formation of the fan-structure an enhanced local shear stress is required, however, after completion of the fan-structure it can propagate as a dynamic wave through intact rock mass at shear stresses below the frictional strength. Paradoxically low shear strength of pristine rocks provided by the fan-mechanism determines the lower limit of the lithospheric strength and favours the generation of new faults in pristine rocks in preference to frictional stick-slip instability along pre-existing faults. The new approach reveals an alternative role of pre-existing faults in earthquake activity: they represent local stress concentrates in pristine rock adjoining the fault where special conditions for the fan-mechanism nucleation are created

  3. Historical seismogram reproductions for the source parameters determination of the 1902, Atushi (Kashgar) earthquake (United States)

    Kulikova, Galina; Krüger, Frank


    The majority of original seismograms recorded at the very beginning of instrumental seismology (the early 1900s) did not survive till present. However, a number of books, bulletins, and catalogs were published including the seismogram reproductions of some, particularly interesting earthquakes. In case these reproductions contain the time and amplitude scales, they can be successfully analyzed the same way as the original records. Information about the Atushi (Kashgar) earthquake, which occurred on August 22, 1902, is very limited. We could not find any original seismograms for this earthquake, but 12 seismograms from 6 seismic stations were printed as example records in different books. These data in combination with macroseismic observations and different bulletins information published for this earthquake were used to determine the source parameters of the earthquake. The earthquake epicenter was relocated at 39.87° N and 76.42° E with the hypocenter depth of about 18 km. We could further determine magnitudes m B = 7.7 ± 0.3, M S = 7.8 ± 0.4, M W = 7.7 ± 0.3 and the focal mechanism of the earthquake with strike/dip/rake - 260°± 20/30°± 10/90°± 10. This study confirms that the earthquake likely had a smaller magnitude than previously reported (M8.3). The focal mechanism indicates dominant thrust faulting, which is in a good agreement with presumably responsible Tuotegongbaizi-Aerpaleike northward dipping thrust fault kinematic, described in previous studies.

  4. The Near-Source Intensity Distribution for the August 24, 2014, South Napa Earthquake (United States)

    Boatwright, J.; Pickering, A.; Blair, J. L.


    The 2014 Mw=6.0 South Napa earthquake was the largest and most damaging earthquake to occur in the Bay Area since the 1989 Mw=6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. The City of Napa estimated that the earthquake caused 300 million damage to homes and commercial properties and 58 million to public infrastructure. Over 41,000 reports were entered on the USGS "Did You Feel It?" (DYFI) website: 730 of these reports were located within 15 km of the rupture. Unfortunately, very few geocoded intensities were obtained immediately west and north of the rupture area. In the weeks following the earthquake, we conducted an intensity survey focused on areas poorly sampled by the DYFI reports. 75 sites were surveyed within 15 km of the earthquake rupture. In addition, we checked and manually geocoded many of the DYFI reports, locating 245 reports within 15 km of the rupture that the automated DYFI processing failed to geocode. We combine the survey sites and the newly geocoded DYFI reports with the original geocoded DYFI reports to map and contour the near-source shaking intensity. In addition to imaging the strong shaking (MMI 7.0-8.0) in the City of Napa, we find an area of very strong shaking (MMI 7.5-8.0) to the northwest of the earthquake rupture. This area, marked by ground cracks, damage to modern wood-frame buildings, and reports of people knocked down, coincides with the directivity expected for rupture to the northwest and up dip. The intensities from the survey sites are consistent with the intensities from the DYFI reports, but are much less variable. For DYFI intensities MMI 4-6, this variability could be derived from the 3:20 AM occurrence of the earthquake: some of the effects that the DYFI questionnaire uses to assign these intensities (objects swaying, bushes and trees shaken) cannot be observed in the dark.

  5. Constraints on the source parameters of low-frequency earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault (United States)

    Thomas, Amanda M.; Beroza, Gregory C.; Shelly, David R.


    Low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) are small repeating earthquakes that occur in conjunction with deep slow slip. Like typical earthquakes, LFEs are thought to represent shear slip on crustal faults, but when compared to earthquakes of the same magnitude, LFEs are depleted in high-frequency content and have lower corner frequencies, implying longer duration. Here we exploit this difference to estimate the duration of LFEs on the deep San Andreas Fault (SAF). We find that the M ~ 1 LFEs have typical durations of ~0.2 s. Using the annual slip rate of the deep SAF and the average number of LFEs per year, we estimate average LFE slip rates of ~0.24 mm/s. When combined with the LFE magnitude, this number implies a stress drop of ~104 Pa, 2 to 3 orders of magnitude lower than ordinary earthquakes, and a rupture velocity of 0.7 km/s, 20% of the shear wave speed. Typical earthquakes are thought to have rupture velocities of ~80–90% of the shear wave speed. Together, the slow rupture velocity, low stress drops, and slow slip velocity explain why LFEs are depleted in high-frequency content relative to ordinary earthquakes and suggest that LFE sources represent areas capable of relatively higher slip speed in deep fault zones. Additionally, changes in rheology may not be required to explain both LFEs and slow slip; the same process that governs the slip speed during slow earthquakes may also limit the rupture velocity of LFEs.

  6. Seismic rupture process of the 2010 Haiti Earthquake (Mw7.0) inferred from seismic and SAR data (United States)

    Santos, Rúben; Caldeira, Bento; Borges, José; Bezzeghoud, Mourad


    On January 12th 2010 at 21:53, the Port-au-Prince - Haiti region was struck by an Mw7 earthquake, the second most deadly of the history. The last seismic significant events in the region occurred in November 1751 and June 1770 [1]. Geodetic and geological studies, previous to the 2010 earthquake [2] have warned to the potential of the destructive seismic events in that region and this event has confirmed those warnings. Some aspects of the source of this earthquake are nonconsensual. There is no agreement in the mechanism of rupture or correlation with the fault that should have it generated [3]. In order to better understand the complexity of this rupture, we combined several techniques and data of different nature. We used teleseismic body-wave and Synthetic Aperture Radar data (SAR) based on the following methodology: 1) analysis of the rupture process directivity [4] to determine the velocity and direction of rupture; 2) teleseismic body-wave inversion to obtain the spatiotemporal fault slip distribution and a detailed rupture model; 3) near field surface deformation modeling using the calculated seismic rupture model and compared with the measured deformation field using SAR data of sensor Advanced Land Observing Satellite - Phased Array L-band SAR (ALOS-PALSAR). The combined application of seismic and geodetic data reveals a complex rupture that spread during approximately 12s mainly from WNW to ESE with average velocity of 2,5km/s, on a north-dipping fault plane. Two main asperities are obtained: the first (and largest) occurs within the first ~ 5sec and extends for approximately 6km around the hypocenter; the second one, that happens in the remaining 6s, covers a near surface rectangular strip with about 12km long by 3km wide. The first asperity is compatible with a left lateral strike-slip motion with a small reverse component; the mechanism of second asperity is predominantly reverse. The obtained rupture process allows modeling a coseismic deformation

  7. Software Toolbox Development for Rapid Earthquake Source Optimisation Combining InSAR Data and Seismic Waveforms (United States)

    Isken, Marius P.; Sudhaus, Henriette; Heimann, Sebastian; Steinberg, Andreas; Bathke, Hannes M.


    We present a modular open-source software framework (pyrocko, kite, grond; for rapid InSAR data post-processing and modelling of tectonic and volcanic displacement fields derived from satellite data. Our aim is to ease and streamline the joint optimisation of earthquake observations from InSAR and GPS data together with seismological waveforms for an improved estimation of the ruptures' parameters. Through this approach we can provide finite models of earthquake ruptures and therefore contribute to a timely and better understanding of earthquake kinematics. The new kite module enables a fast processing of unwrapped InSAR scenes for source modelling: the spatial sub-sampling and data error/noise estimation for the interferogram is evaluated automatically and interactively. The rupture's near-field surface displacement data are then combined with seismic far-field waveforms and jointly modelled using the framwork, which allows for fast forward modelling based on pre-calculated elastodynamic and elastostatic Green's functions. Lastly the grond module supplies a bootstrap-based probabilistic (Monte Carlo) joint optimisation to estimate the parameters and uncertainties of a finite-source earthquake rupture model. We describe the developed and applied methods as an effort to establish a semi-automatic processing and modelling chain. The framework is applied to Sentinel-1 data from the 2016 Central Italy earthquake sequence, where we present the earthquake mechanism and rupture model from which we derive regions of increased coulomb stress. The open source software framework is developed at GFZ Potsdam and at the University of Kiel, Germany, it is written in Python and C programming languages. The toolbox architecture is modular and independent, and can be utilized flexibly for a variety of geophysical problems. This work is conducted within the BridGeS project ( funded by the German Research Foundation DFG

  8. Slip-weakening distance and energy budget inferred from near-fault ground deformation during the 2016 Mw7.8 Kaikōura earthquake (United States)

    Kaneko, Yoshihiro; Fukuyama, Eiichi; Hamling, Ian James


    The 2016 M7.8 Kaikōura (New Zealand) earthquake struck the east coast of the northern South Island, resulting in strong ground shaking and large surface fault slip. Since the earthquake was well recorded by a local strong-motion seismic network, near-fault data may provide direct measurements of dynamic parameters associated with the fault-weakening process. Here we estimate a proxy for slip-weakening distance Dc '', defined as double the fault-parallel displacement at the time of peak ground velocity, from accelerograms recorded at a near-fault station. Three-component ground displacements were recovered from the double numerical integration of accelerograms, and the corresponding final displacements are validated against coseismic displacement from geodetic data. The estimated Dc '' is 4.9 m at seismic station KEKS located ˜2.7 km from a segment of the Kekerengu fault where large surface fault slip (˜12 m) has been observed. The inferred Dc '' is the largest value ever estimated from near-fault strong motion data, yet it appears to follow the scaling of Dc '' with final slip for several large strike-slip earthquakes. The energy budget of the M7.8 Kaikōura earthquake inferred from the scaling of Dc '' with final slip indicates that a large amount of energy was dissipated by on- and off-fault inelastic deformation during the propagation of the earthquake rupture, resulting in a slower average rupture speed (≲2.0 km/s).


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Manneela


    Full Text Available Exemplifying the tsunami source immediately after an earthquake is the most critical component of tsunami early warning, as not every earthquake generates a tsunami. After a major under sea earthquake, it is very important to determine whether or not it has actually triggered the deadly wave. The near real-time observations from near field networks such as strong motion and Global Positioning System (GPS allows rapid determination of fault geometry. Here we present a complete processing chain of Indian Tsunami Early Warning System (ITEWS, starting from acquisition of geodetic raw data, processing, inversion and simulating the situation as it would be at warning center during any major earthquake. We determine the earthquake moment magnitude and generate the centroid moment tensor solution using a novel approach which are the key elements for tsunami early warning. Though the well established seismic monitoring network, numerical modeling and dissemination system are currently capable to provide tsunami warnings to most of the countries in and around the Indian Ocean, the study highlights the critical role of geodetic observations in determination of tsunami source for high-quality forecasting.

  10. Discriminating induced seismicity from natural earthquakes using moment tensors and source spectra (United States)

    Zhang, Hongliang; Eaton, David W.; Li, Ge; Liu, Yajing; Harrington, Rebecca M.


    Earthquake source mechanisms and spectra can provide important clues to aid in discriminating between natural and induced events. In this study, we calculate moment tensors and stress drop values for eight recent induced earthquakes in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin with magnitudes between 3.2 and 4.4, as well as a nearby magnitude 5.3 event that is interpreted as a natural earthquake. We calculate full moment tensor solutions by performing a waveform-fitting procedure based on a 1-D transversely isotropic velocity model. In addition to a dominant double-couple (DC) signature that is common to nearly all events, most induced events exhibit significant non-double-couple components. A parameter sensitivity analysis indicates that spurious non-DC components are negligible if the signal to noise ratio (SNR) exceeds 10 and if the 1-D model differs from the true velocity structure by less than 5%. Estimated focal depths of induced events are significantly shallower than the typical range of focal depths for intraplate earthquakes in the Canadian Shield. Stress drops of the eight induced events were estimated using a generalized spectral-fitting method and fall within the typical range of 2 to 90 MPa for tectonic earthquakes. Elastic moduli changes due to the brittle damage production at the source, presence of multiple intersecting fractures, dilatant jogs created at the overlapping areas of multiple fractures, or non-planar pre-existing faults may explain the non-DC components for induced events.

  11. Tsunami Source Modeling of the 2015 Volcanic Tsunami Earthquake near Torishima, South of Japan (United States)

    Sandanbata, O.; Watada, S.; Satake, K.; Fukao, Y.; Sugioka, H.; Ito, A.; Shiobara, H.


    An abnormal earthquake occurred at a submarine volcano named Smith Caldera, near Torishima Island on the Izu-Bonin arc, on May 2, 2015. The earthquake, which hereafter we call "the 2015 Torishima earthquake," has a CLVD-type focal mechanism with a moderate seismic magnitude (M5.7) but generated larger tsunami waves with an observed maximum height of 50 cm at Hachijo Island [JMA, 2015], so that the earthquake can be regarded as a "tsunami earthquake." In the region, similar tsunami earthquakes were observed in 1984, 1996 and 2006, but their physical mechanisms are still not well understood. Tsunami waves generated by the 2015 earthquake were recorded by an array of ocean bottom pressure (OBP) gauges, 100 km northeastern away from the epicenter. The waves initiated with a small downward signal of 0.1 cm and reached peak amplitude (1.5-2.0 cm) of leading upward signals followed by continuous oscillations [Fukao et al., 2016]. For modeling its tsunami source, or sea-surface displacement, we perform tsunami waveform simulations, and compare synthetic and observed waveforms at the OBP gauges. The linear Boussinesq equations are adapted with the tsunami simulation code, JAGURS [Baba et al., 2015]. We first assume a Gaussian-shaped sea-surface uplift of 1.0 m with a source size comparable to Smith Caldera, 6-7 km in diameter. By shifting source location around the caldera, we found the uplift is probably located within the caldera rim, as suggested by Sandanbata et al. [2016]. However, synthetic waves show no initial downward signal that was observed at the OBP gauges. Hence, we add a ring of subsidence surrounding the main uplift, and examine sizes and amplitudes of the main uplift and the subsidence ring. As a result, the model of a main uplift of around 1.0 m with a radius of 4 km surrounded by a ring of small subsidence shows good agreement of synthetic and observed waveforms. The results yield two implications for the deformation process that help us to understanding


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gómez Capera Augusto A.


    Full Text Available In the past decades many different procedures have been made to handle the historical data for the determination of the earthquake source parameters. This has been only possible dealing with historical data interpreted and compiled as Intensity Data Points (IDP. One of the most interesting tools is the Boxer algorithm, a parameterisation method that computes the parameters of the earthquake source in terms of latitude and longitude of the epicentre, magnitude of the event, length, width and azimuth of the box, which represent the surface projection of the sismogenic source. Applying the Boxer algorithm we have used intensity data points available from the CERESIS database (earthquakes with I0 ≥ 8MM to obtain a preliminary idea of the possible sources of some historical earthquakes of the South-American region. At a first approach to the South-American historical seismicity we generally can affirm that our results agree fairly well with seismological data and geological background as reported in literature.

  13. Regional W-Phase Source Inversion for Moderate to Large Earthquakes in China and Neighboring Areas (United States)

    Zhao, Xu; Duputel, Zacharie; Yao, Zhenxing


    Earthquake source characterization has been significantly speeded up in the last decade with the development of rapid inversion techniques in seismology. Among these techniques, the W-phase source inversion method quickly provides point source parameters of large earthquakes using very long period seismic waves recorded at teleseismic distances. Although the W-phase method was initially developed to work at global scale (within 20 to 30 min after the origin time), faster results can be obtained when seismological data are available at regional distances (i.e., Δ ≤ 12°). In this study, we assess the use and reliability of regional W-phase source estimates in China and neighboring areas. Our implementation uses broadband records from the Chinese network supplemented by global seismological stations installed in the region. Using this data set and minor modifications to the W-phase algorithm, we show that reliable solutions can be retrieved automatically within 4 to 7 min after the earthquake origin time. Moreover, the method yields stable results down to Mw = 5.0 events, which is well below the size of earthquakes that are rapidly characterized using W-phase inversions at teleseismic distances.

  14. Source parameters of the swarm earthquakes in West Bohemia/Vogtland

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Michálek, Jan; Fischer, Tomáš


    Roč. 195, č. 2 (2013), s. 1196-1210 ISSN 0956-540X Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : Fourier analysis * earthquake source observations * seismicity and tectonics Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 2.724, year: 2013

  15. Source mechanisms of the 2000 earthquake swarm in the West Bohemia/Vogtland region (Central Europe)

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Horálek, Josef; Šílený, Jan


    Roč. 194, č. 2 (2013), s. 979-999 ISSN 0956-540X R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA300120911 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : fracture and flow * earthquake source observations * intra-plate processes * dynamics and mechanics of faulting Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 2.724, year: 2013

  16. Source parameters estimation of 2003 Bam earthquake Mw 6.5 ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India) ... We determine the source parameters for 2003 (Mw 6.5) Bam, Iran, earthquake using an empirical Green's function summation approach to model ground motions recorded by two strong ...

  17. The ShakeOut earthquake source and ground motion simulations (United States)

    Graves, R.W.; Houston, Douglas B.; Hudnut, K.W.


    The ShakeOut Scenario is premised upon the detailed description of a hypothetical Mw 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault and the associated simulated ground motions. The main features of the scenario, such as its endpoints, magnitude, and gross slip distribution, were defined through expert opinion and incorporated information from many previous studies. Slip at smaller length scales, rupture speed, and rise time were constrained using empirical relationships and experience gained from previous strong-motion modeling. Using this rupture description and a 3-D model of the crust, broadband ground motions were computed over a large region of Southern California. The largest simulated peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) generally range from 0.5 to 1.0 g and 100 to 250 cm/s, respectively, with the waveforms exhibiting strong directivity and basin effects. Use of a slip-predictable model results in a high static stress drop event and produces ground motions somewhat higher than median level predictions from NGA ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs).

  18. Tsunami Source Estimate for the 1960 Chilean Earthquake from Near- and Far-Field Observations (United States)

    Ho, T.; Satake, K.; Watada, S.; Fujii, Y.


    The tsunami source of the 1960 Chilean earthquake was estimated from the near- and far-field tsunami data. The 1960 Chilean earthquake is known as the greatest earthquake instrumentally ever recorded. This earthquake caused a large tsunami which was recorded by 13 near-field tidal gauges in South America, and 84 far-field stations around the Pacific Ocean at the coasts of North America, Asia, and Oceania. The near-field stations had been used for estimating the tsunami source [Fujii and Satake, Pageoph, 2013]. However, far-field tsunami waveforms have not been utilized because of the discrepancy between observed and simulated waveforms. The observed waveforms at the far-field stations are found systematically arrived later than the simulated waveforms. This phenomenon has been also observed in the tsunami of the 2004 Sumatra earthquake, the 2010 Chilean earthquake, and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Recently, the factors for the travel time delay have been explained [Watada et al., JGR, 2014; Allgeyer and Cummins, GRL, 2014], so the far-field data are usable for tsunami source estimation. The phase correction method [Watada et al., JGR, 2014] converts the tsunami waveforms computed by the linear long wave into the dispersive waveform which accounts for the effects of elasticity of the Earth and ocean, ocean density stratification, and gravitational potential change associated with tsunami propagation. We apply the method to correct the computed waveforms. For the preliminary initial sea surface height inversion, we use 12 near-field stations and 63 far-field stations, located in the South and North America, islands in the Pacific Ocean, and the Oceania. The estimated tsunami source from near-field stations is compared with the result from both near- and far-field stations. Two estimated sources show a similar pattern: a large sea surface displacement concentrated at the south of the epicenter close to the coast and extended to south. However, the source estimated from

  19. Contribution of Satellite Gravimetry to Understanding Seismic Source Processes of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake (United States)

    Han, Shin-Chan; Sauber, Jeanne; Riva, Riccardo


    The 2011 great Tohoku-Oki earthquake, apart from shaking the ground, perturbed the motions of satellites orbiting some hundreds km away above the ground, such as GRACE, due to coseismic change in the gravity field. Significant changes in inter-satellite distance were observed after the earthquake. These unconventional satellite measurements were inverted to examine the earthquake source processes from a radically different perspective that complements the analyses of seismic and geodetic ground recordings. We found the average slip located up-dip of the hypocenter but within the lower crust, as characterized by a limited range of bulk and shear moduli. The GRACE data constrained a group of earthquake source parameters that yield increasing dip (7-16 degrees plus or minus 2 degrees) and, simultaneously, decreasing moment magnitude (9.17-9.02 plus or minus 0.04) with increasing source depth (15-24 kilometers). The GRACE solution includes the cumulative moment released over a month and demonstrates a unique view of the long-wavelength gravimetric response to all mass redistribution processes associated with the dynamic rupture and short-term postseismic mechanisms to improve our understanding of the physics of megathrusts.

  20. Estimation of Source Parameters of Historical Major Earthquakes from 1900 to 1970 around Asia and Analysis of Their Uncertainties (United States)

    Han, J.; Zhou, S.


    Asia, located in the conjoined areas of Eurasian, Pacific, and Indo-Australian plates, is the continent with highest seismicity. Earthquake catalogue on the bases of modern seismic network recordings has been established since around 1970 in Asia and the earthquake catalogue before 1970 was much more inaccurate because of few stations. With a history of less than 50 years of modern earthquake catalogue, researches in seismology are quite limited. After the appearance of improved Earth velocity structure model, modified locating method and high-accuracy Optical Character Recognition technique, travel time data of earthquakes from 1900 to 1970 can be included in research and more accurate locations can be determined for historical earthquakes. Hence, parameters of these historical earthquakes can be obtained more precisely and some research method such as ETAS model can be used in a much longer time scale. This work focuses on the following three aspects: (1) Relocating more than 300 historical major earthquakes (M≥7.0) in Asia based on the Shide Circulars, International Seismological Summary and EHB Bulletin instrumental records between 1900 and 1970. (2) Calculating the focal mechanisms of more than 50 events by first motion records of P wave of ISS. (3) Based on the geological data, tectonic stress field and the result of relocation, inferring focal mechanisms of historical major earthquakes.

  1. Source Inversion of Very Large Earthquakes Using Empirical Green's Function Approach with Bootstrapping (United States)

    Chang, T. W.; Ide, S.


    Slip inversion using empirical Green's function (EGF) method has its advantages of removing the complex path and site effect that is difficult to model theoretically. The method, which uses one "EGF event" that's smaller in magnitude for over 1.5 as the Green's function, is essentially an inversion highlighting the arrival time of the waveforms. In this study, inversions of very large earthquakes were conducted with far-field data, using non-negative-least-squares method, and taking EGF selection from Baltay et al. (2014). Objective way of screening station components is applied by evaluating the radiation pattern for the earthquakes of each stations. To better estimate model error due to the usage of empirical Green's function, which is also specific to station selection, bootstrapping is made on the station selection process, randomly selecting waveforms from P or SH components in various stations. This will give the average of inversion trials using different data components with different Green's Functions, resulting in a smoothed model with stable features of the individual results, without explicitly applying smoothing constraints. So far, the above method had been applied to the MW 8.8 2010 Maule, Chile, and the MW 9.0 2011 Tohoku-Oki, Japan earthquakes, both giving comparable slip pattern to previous studies, although slip is concentrated in very small regions with unreasonably large amount of slip. These results should be considered as an extreme case of concentrated slip, and further physical inference is necessary to understand the real rupture process.

  2. Joint Inversion of Earthquake Source Parameters with local and teleseismic body waves (United States)

    Chen, W.; Ni, S.; Wang, Z.


    In the classical source parameter inversion algorithm of CAP (Cut and Paste method, by Zhao and Helmberger), waveform data at near distances (typically less than 500km) are partitioned into Pnl and surface waves to account for uncertainties in the crustal models and different amplitude weight of body and surface waves. The classical CAP algorithms have proven effective for resolving source parameters (focal mechanisms, depth and moment) for earthquakes well recorded on relatively dense seismic network. However for regions covered with sparse stations, it is challenging to achieve precise source parameters . In this case, a moderate earthquake of ~M6 is usually recorded on only one or two local stations with epicentral distances less than 500 km. Fortunately, an earthquake of ~M6 can be well recorded on global seismic networks. Since the ray paths for teleseismic and local body waves sample different portions of the focal sphere, combination of teleseismic and local body wave data helps constrain source parameters better. Here we present a new CAP mothod (CAPjoint), which emploits both teleseismic body waveforms (P and SH waves) and local waveforms (Pnl, Rayleigh and Love waves) to determine source parameters. For an earthquake in Nevada that is well recorded with dense local network (USArray stations), we compare the results from CAPjoint with those from the traditional CAP method involving only of local waveforms , and explore the efficiency with bootstraping statistics to prove the results derived by CAPjoint are stable and reliable. Even with one local station included in joint inversion, accuracy of source parameters such as moment and strike can be much better improved.

  3. A long source area of the 1906 Colombia-Ecuador earthquake estimated from observed tsunami waveforms (United States)

    Yamanaka, Yusuke; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Shiina, Takahiro


    The 1906 Colombia-Ecuador earthquake induced both strong seismic motions and a tsunami, the most destructive earthquake in the history of the Colombia-Ecuador subduction zone. The tsunami propagated across the Pacific Ocean, and its waveforms were observed at tide gauge stations in countries including Panama, Japan, and the USA. This study conducted slip inverse analysis for the 1906 earthquake using these waveforms. A digital dataset of observed tsunami waveforms at the Naos Island (Panama) and Honolulu (USA) tide gauge stations, where the tsunami was clearly observed, was first produced by consulting documents. Next, the two waveforms were applied in an inverse analysis as the target waveform. The results of this analysis indicated that the moment magnitude of the 1906 earthquake ranged from 8.3 to 8.6. Moreover, the dominant slip occurred in the northern part of the assumed source region near the coast of Colombia, where little significant seismicity has occurred, rather than in the southern part. The results also indicated that the source area, with significant slip, covered a long distance, including the southern, central, and northern parts of the region.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  4. Source Parameters of Large Magnitude Subduction Zone Earthquakes Along Oaxaca, Mexico (United States)

    Fannon, M. L.; Bilek, S. L.


    Subduction zones are host to temporally and spatially varying seismogenic activity including, megathrust earthquakes, slow slip events (SSE), nonvolcanic tremor (NVT), and ultra-slow velocity layers (USL). We explore these variations by determining source parameters for large earthquakes (M > 5.5) along the Oaxaca segment of the Mexico subduction zone, an area encompasses the wide range of activity noted above. We use waveform data for 36 earthquakes that occurred between January 1, 1990 to June 1, 2014, obtained from the IRIS DMC, generate synthetic Green's functions for the available stations, and deconvolve these from the ­­­observed records to determine a source time function for each event. From these source time functions, we measured rupture durations and scaled these by the cube root to calculate the normalized duration for each event. Within our dataset, four events located updip from the SSE, USL, and NVT areas have longer rupture durations than the other events in this analysis. Two of these four events, along with one other event, are located within the SSE and NVT areas. The results in this study show that large earthquakes just updip from SSE and NVT have slower rupture characteristics than other events along the subduction zone not adjacent to SSE, USL, and NVT zones. Based on our results, we suggest a transitional zone for the seismic behavior rather than a distinct change at a particular depth. This study will help aid in understanding seismogenic behavior that occurs along subduction zones and the rupture characteristics of earthquakes near areas of slow slip processes.

  5. Inference of Unresolved Point Sources at High Galactic Latitudes Using Probabilistic Catalogs (United States)

    Daylan, Tansu; Portillo, Stephen K. N.; Finkbeiner, Douglas P.


    The detection of point sources in images is a fundamental operation in astrophysics, and is crucial for constraining population models of the underlying point sources or characterizing the background emission. Standard techniques fall short in the crowded-field limit, losing sensitivity to faint sources and failing to track their covariance with close neighbors. We construct a Bayesian framework to perform inference of faint or overlapping point sources. The method involves probabilistic cataloging, where samples are taken from the posterior probability distribution of catalogs consistent with an observed photon count map. In order to validate our method, we sample random catalogs of the gamma-ray sky in the direction of the North Galactic Pole (NGP) by binning the data in energy and point-spread function classes. Using three energy bins spanning 0.3-1, 1-3, and 3-10 GeV, we identify {270}-10+30 point sources inside a 40^\\circ × 40^\\circ region around the NGP above our point-source inclusion limit of 3× {10}-11 cm-2 s-1 sr-1 GeV-1 at the 1-3 GeV energy bin. Modeling the flux distribution as a power law, we infer the slope to be -{1.92}-0.05+0.07 and estimate the contribution of point sources to the total emission as {18}-2+2%. These uncertainties in the flux distribution are fully marginalized over the number as well as the spatial and spectral properties of the unresolved point sources. This marginalization allows a robust test of whether the apparently isotropic emission in an image is due to unresolved point sources or of truly diffuse origin.

  6. The Rule of Dynamic Strain to Near Source Aftershock Distribution of the 2014, Mw 6.0, Napa (California) Earthquake (United States)

    Emolo, A.; De Matteis, R.; Convertito, V.


    The 2014 Napa was recognized as a right-lateral strike-slip fault. About 400 aftershocks occurred, mainly in the near-source range, in the two months after the earthquake. They mostly occurred between 8 and 11 km depth interesting an area of about 10 km2 north-northwest-trending with respect to the mainshock hypocenter. However, the aftershock distribution was not able to constrain the mainshock fault plane. Since Parsons et al. (2014) have shown that Coulomb static stress change does not completely explain near-source aftershock distribution, we explore whether dynamic strain transfer, enhanced by source directivity, contributed to trigger the aftershock sequence. Indeed, dynamic strain transfer triggering attributes enhanced failure probabilities to increased shear stresses or strains, to permeability changes and maybe to fault weakening. In this respect, we observe that a single inverse power law fits the decay of aftershock density as function of distance from the fault plane, suggesting that dynamic stress/strain might have played a role in the aftershocks triggering. To test this hypothesis, we used Peak-Ground Velocities (PGVs) as a proxy for peak-dynamic strain/stress field, accounting for both fault finiteness and source directivity. We first use a point source to retrieve the best parameters of the directivity function from the inversion of the PGVs. Next, the same PGVs are used to jointly infer the surface fault projection and the dominant horizontal rupture direction. Finally, we map the peak-dynamic strain/stress, modified by source geometry and directivity, to resolve the relationship between the aftershocks location and the areas of large dynamic strain values. Thus, we believe that dynamic strain/stress actually contributed to the Napa aftershock distribution. Our results may help to better constrain the Napa causative fault and complement Coulomb static stress change to identify areas that will be more likely affected by aftershocks.

  7. Physics-Based Hazard Assessment for Critical Structures Near Large Earthquake Sources (United States)

    Hutchings, L.; Mert, A.; Fahjan, Y.; Novikova, T.; Golara, A.; Miah, M.; Fergany, E.; Foxall, W.


    We argue that for critical structures near large earthquake sources: (1) the ergodic assumption, recent history, and simplified descriptions of the hazard are not appropriate to rely on for earthquake ground motion prediction and can lead to a mis-estimation of the hazard and risk to structures; (2) a physics-based approach can address these issues; (3) a physics-based source model must be provided to generate realistic phasing effects from finite rupture and model near-source ground motion correctly; (4) wave propagations and site response should be site specific; (5) a much wider search of possible sources of ground motion can be achieved computationally with a physics-based approach; (6) unless one utilizes a physics-based approach, the hazard and risk to structures has unknown uncertainties; (7) uncertainties can be reduced with a physics-based approach, but not with an ergodic approach; (8) computational power and computer codes have advanced to the point that risk to structures can be calculated directly from source and site-specific ground motions. Spanning the variability of potential ground motion in a predictive situation is especially difficult for near-source areas, but that is the distance at which the hazard is the greatest. The basis of a "physical-based" approach is ground-motion syntheses derived from physics and an understanding of the earthquake process. This is an overview paper and results from previous studies are used to make the case for these conclusions. Our premise is that 50 years of strong motion records is insufficient to capture all possible ranges of site and propagation path conditions, rupture processes, and spatial geometric relationships between source and site. Predicting future earthquake scenarios is necessary; models that have little or no physical basis but have been tested and adjusted to fit available observations can only "predict" what happened in the past, which should be considered description as opposed to prediction

  8. Atmospheric Dispersion Unknown Source Parameters Determination Using AERMOD and Bayesian Inference Along Markov Chain Monte Carlo

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haghighattalab, A.; Zolfaghari, A. R.; Minouchehr, A. H.; Kiya, H. A.


    Occurrence of hazardous accident in nuclear power plants and industrial units usually lead to release of radioactive materials and pollutants in environment. These materials and pollutants can be transported to a far downstream by the wind flow. In this paper, we implemented an atmospheric dispersion code to solve the inverse problem. Having received and detected the pollutants in one region, we may estimate the rate and location of the unknown source. For the modeling, one needs a model with ability of atmospheric dispersion calculation. Furthermore, it is required to implement a mathematical approach to infer the source location and the related rates. In this paper the AERMOD software and Bayesian inference along the Markov Chain Monte Carlo have been applied. Implementing, Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo for the aforementioned subject is not a new approach, but the AERMOD model coupled with the said methods is a new and well known regulatory software, and enhances the reliability of outcomes. To evaluate the method, an example is considered by defining pollutants concentration in a specific region and then obtaining the source location and intensity by a direct calculation. The result of the calculation estimates the average source location at a distance of 7km with an accuracy of 5m which is good enough to support the ability of the proposed algorithm.

  9. Real-time earthquake monitoring using a search engine method. (United States)

    Zhang, Jie; Zhang, Haijiang; Chen, Enhong; Zheng, Yi; Kuang, Wenhuan; Zhang, Xiong


    When an earthquake occurs, seismologists want to use recorded seismograms to infer its location, magnitude and source-focal mechanism as quickly as possible. If such information could be determined immediately, timely evacuations and emergency actions could be undertaken to mitigate earthquake damage. Current advanced methods can report the initial location and magnitude of an earthquake within a few seconds, but estimating the source-focal mechanism may require minutes to hours. Here we present an earthquake search engine, similar to a web search engine, that we developed by applying a computer fast search method to a large seismogram database to find waveforms that best fit the input data. Our method is several thousand times faster than an exact search. For an Mw 5.9 earthquake on 8 March 2012 in Xinjiang, China, the search engine can infer the earthquake's parameters in <1 s after receiving the long-period surface wave data.

  10. Analysis of the earthquake data and estimation of source parameters in the Kyungsang basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seo, Jeong-Moon; Lee, Jun-Hee [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea)


    The purpose of the present study is to determine the response spectrum for the Korean Peninsula and estimate the seismic source parameters and analyze and simulate the ground motion adequately from the seismic characteristics of Korean Peninsula and compare this with the real data. The estimated seismic source parameters such as apparent seismic stress drop is somewhat unstable because the data are insufficient. When the instrumental earthquake data were continuously accumulated in the future, the modification of these parameters may be developed. Although equations presented in this report are derived from the limited data, they can be utilized both in seismology and earthquake engineering. Finally, predictive equations may be given in terms of magnitude and hypocentral distances using these parameters. The estimation of the predictive equation constructed from the simulation is the object of further study. 34 refs., 27 figs., 10 tabs. (Author)

  11. Development of uniform hazard response spectra for rock sites considering line and point sources of earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.


    Traditionally, the seismic design basis ground motion has been specified by normalised response spectral shapes and peak ground acceleration (PGA). The mean recurrence interval (MRI) used to computed for PGA only. It is shown that the MRI associated with such response spectra are not the same at all frequencies. The present work develops uniform hazard response spectra i.e. spectra having the same MRI at all frequencies for line and point sources of earthquakes by using a large number of strong motion accelerograms recorded on rock sites. Sensitivity of the number of the results to the changes in various parameters has also been presented. This work is an extension of an earlier work for aerial sources of earthquakes. These results will help to determine the seismic hazard at a given site and the associated uncertainities. (author)

  12. Japanese Consumers' WTP for the Source of Electricity after the Great East Japan Earthquake


    MORITA Tamaki; MANAGI Shunsuke


    The Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011 severely damaged the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, and has reminded people of the potential risk of electricity supply shortage. Japanese consumers have since also began rethinking about the source of electricity production. This paper presents the results of both discrete choice experiments and choice probabilities experiments to determine the citizens' willingness to pay (WTP) for residential electricity produced by natural gas, sol...

  13. Robust determination of earthquake source parameters and mantle attenuation (United States)

    Ko, Yen-Ting; Kuo, Ban-Yuan; Hung, Shu-Huei


    An improved inversion technique is needed to effectively separate the frequency dependence of the source from the intrinsic attenuation of the medium. We developed a cluster-event method (CEM) in which clusters of nearby events, instead of individual events, pair with stations to form the basis for measurements ofQ value and corner frequency (fc). We assume that the raypaths from one cluster to a station share an identical Q while each event in the same cluster is allowed for only one fcin the inversion process. This approach largely reduces the degrees of freedom to achieve a robust inversion. We use an optimization algorithm of simulated annealing to solve the nonlinear inverse problem. The CEM was applied to events at 70-150 km depths in the Japan subduction zone recorded by F-net. We show that the method proposed here leads to better constraints on both source parameters and attenuation. The resultantQ's in the mantle wedge increase from lower than 300 beneath the arc and back-arc to greater than 600 in the fore-arc region. Thefc's satisfy a self-similar scaling relationship with seismic moment ofM0 ∝ fc-3 with a best fit stress drop of 21.9 ± 6.9 MPa in Madariaga's form. This contrasts to the stress drop of 1.4 ± 1.1 MPa for a global data set composed of prior measurements for crustal events. The results of this study agree with results from previous studies, except with an upward deviation due to higher corner frequencies and stress drops.

  14. Tsunami Simulations in the Western Makran Using Hypothetical Heterogeneous Source Models from World's Great Earthquakes (United States)

    Rashidi, Amin; Shomali, Zaher Hossein; Keshavarz Farajkhah, Nasser


    The western segment of Makran subduction zone is characterized with almost no major seismicity and no large earthquake for several centuries. A possible episode for this behavior is that this segment is currently locked accumulating energy to generate possible great future earthquakes. Taking into account this assumption, a hypothetical rupture area is considered in the western Makran to set different tsunamigenic scenarios. Slip distribution models of four recent tsunamigenic earthquakes, i.e. 2015 Chile M w 8.3, 2011 Tohoku-Oki M w 9.0 (using two different scenarios) and 2006 Kuril Islands M w 8.3, are scaled into the rupture area in the western Makran zone. The numerical modeling is performed to evaluate near-field and far-field tsunami hazards. Heterogeneity in slip distribution results in higher tsunami amplitudes. However, its effect reduces from local tsunamis to regional and distant tsunamis. Among all considered scenarios for the western Makran, only a similar tsunamigenic earthquake to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki event can re-produce a significant far-field tsunami and is considered as the worst case scenario. The potential of a tsunamigenic source is dominated by the degree of slip heterogeneity and the location of greatest slip on the rupture area. For the scenarios with similar slip patterns, the mean slip controls their relative power. Our conclusions also indicate that along the entire Makran coasts, the southeastern coast of Iran is the most vulnerable area subjected to tsunami hazard.

  15. Earthquakes and tsunami in November 1755 in Morocco: a different reading of contemporaneous documentary sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.-L. Blanc


    Full Text Available Tsunami seldom strike the European Atlantic shores. The great Lisbon Earthquake of 1 November 1755 is the main destructive tsunamigenic event recorded. Since the mid-1990's, many simulations of propagation of tsunami waves from variants of the possible seismic source have been conducted. Estimates of run-up in Morocco are seldom included in publications, maybe for want of reliable historical data to control the simulations. This paper revisits some early accounts, transmitted as translations to European Chanceries, Scientific Societies and Newspapers. A critical analysis of the documents leads us to conclude that the Lisbon earthquake was overestimated because of amalgamation with a later Rifian earthquake. Then, the overestimation of the tsunami through worst interpretation of the scant data available appeared only reasonable, while the moderate measurements or interpretations were not given their due attention. In Morocco the amplitude of the tsunami (i.e. height at shoreline minus expected tide level may not have exceed the measurement given by Godin (1755 for Cadiz, 2.5 m above the calculated astronomical tide, a crest-to-trough amplitude of 5 m at most. This age-old overestimation of both the earthquake and tsunami is detrimental to the evaluation of the risk for coastal people and activities.

  16. Implications of some early Jewish sources for estimates of earthquake hazardin the Holy Land

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Karcz


    Full Text Available For the past two millennia the Holy Land was under the yoke of successive invaders and oppressors, not a fertile ground for growth of historiographic traditions. Consequently, earthquake cataloguers had to rely largely on chronicles and texts written at distant administrative and cultural centers of the day, where earthquake destruction suffered by a culturally and economically depressed province may have been overshadowed by damage in more important parts of the empire. On this assumption, and aided by an implicit notion that the lands bounded by the Dead Sea Rift and Anatolian Fault systems are seismically contiguous, early cataloguers often extended the impact of earthquakes documented in nearby East Mediterranean countries to the Holy Land. Once published, such reports of supposed destructive intensities in Israel were used by Judaic scholars and archaeologists to date poorly defined, often metaphoric, literary seismic echoes, and to justify assigning seismic origin to equivocal signs of damage, asymmetry, or abandonment at archaeological sites of corresponding age. The spread of damage and intensity portraits are therefore enhanced and distorted, and so is their application in palaeoseismic analysis. Four test cases are presented, illustrating the use and misuse of local Judaic sources in identifying destructive intensities supposedly generated in the Holy Land by earthquakes of 92 B.C., 64 B.C. and 31 B.C., and in postulating a regional seismic catastrophe in 749 A.D..

  17. Dynamic source inversion of the M6.5 intermediate-depth Zumpango earthquake in central Mexico: A parallel genetic algorithm (United States)

    Díaz-Mojica, John; Cruz-Atienza, Víctor M.; Madariaga, Raúl; Singh, Shri K.; Tago, Josué; Iglesias, Arturo


    We introduce a method for imaging the earthquake source dynamics from the inversion of ground motion records based on a parallel genetic algorithm. The source model follows an elliptical patch approach and uses the staggered-grid split-node method to simulate the earthquake dynamics. A statistical analysis is used to estimate errors in both inverted and derived source parameters. Synthetic inversion tests reveal that the average rupture speed (Vr), the rupture area, and the stress drop (Δτ) may be determined with formal errors of ~30%, ~12%, and ~10%, respectively. In contrast, derived parameters such as the radiated energy (Er), the radiation efficiency (ηr), and the fracture energy (G) have larger errors, around ~70%, ~40%, and ~25%, respectively. We applied the method to the Mw 6.5 intermediate-depth (62 km) normal-faulting earthquake of 11 December 2011 in Guerrero, Mexico. Inferred values of Δτ = 29.2 ± 6.2 MPa and ηr = 0.26 ± 0.1 are significantly higher and lower, respectively, than those of typical subduction thrust events. Fracture energy is large so that more than 73% of the available potential energy for the dynamic process of faulting was deposited in the focal region (i.e., G = (14.4 ± 3.5) × 1014J), producing a slow rupture process (Vr/VS = 0.47 ± 0.09) despite the relatively high energy radiation (Er = (0.54 ± 0.31) × 1015 J) and energy-moment ratio (Er/M0 = 5.7 × 10- 5). It is interesting to point out that such a slow and inefficient rupture along with the large stress drop in a small focal region are features also observed in both the 1994 deep Bolivian earthquake and the seismicity of the intermediate-depth Bucaramanga nest.

  18. Focal mechanisms and moment magnitudes of micro-earthquakes in central Brazil by waveform inversion with quality assessment and inference of the local stress field (United States)

    Carvalho, Juraci; Barros, Lucas Vieira; Zahradník, Jiří


    This paper documents an investigation on the use of full waveform inversion to retrieve focal mechanisms of 11 micro-earthquakes (Mw 0.8 to 1.4). The events represent aftershocks of a 5.0 mb earthquake that occurred on October 8, 2010 close to the city of Mara Rosa in the state of Goiás, Brazil. The main contribution of the work lies in demonstrating the feasibility of waveform inversion of such weak events. The inversion was made possible thanks to recordings available at 8 temporary seismic stations in epicentral distances of less than 8 km, at which waveforms can be successfully modeled at relatively high frequencies (1.5-2.0 Hz). On average, the fault-plane solutions obtained are in agreement with a composite focal mechanism previously calculated from first-motion polarities. They also agree with the fault geometry inferred from precise relocation of the Mara Rosa aftershock sequence. The focal mechanisms provide an estimate of the local stress field. This paper serves as a pilot study for similar investigations in intraplate regions where the stress-field investigations are difficult due to rare earthquake occurrences, and where weak events must be studied with a detailed quality assessment.

  19. Isotope ratio mass spectrometry as a tool for source inference in forensic science: A critical review. (United States)

    Gentile, Natacha; Siegwolf, Rolf T W; Esseiva, Pierre; Doyle, Sean; Zollinger, Kurt; Delémont, Olivier


    Isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) has been used in numerous fields of forensic science in a source inference perspective. This review compiles the studies published on the application of isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) to the traditional fields of forensic science so far. It completes the review of Benson et al. [1] and synthesises the extent of knowledge already gathered in the following fields: illicit drugs, flammable liquids, human provenancing, microtraces, explosives and other specific materials (packaging tapes, safety matches, plastics, etc.). For each field, a discussion assesses the state of science and highlights the relevance of the information in a forensic context. Through the different discussions which mark out the review, the potential and limitations of IRMS, as well as the needs and challenges of future studies are emphasized. The paper elicits the various dimensions of the source which can be obtained from the isotope information and demonstrates the transversal nature of IRMS as a tool for source inference. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Inference of Dim Gamma-Ray Point Sources Using Probabilistic Catalogues (United States)

    Daylan, Tansu; Portillo, Stephen K. N.; Finkbeiner, Douglas P.


    Poisson regression of the Fermi-LAT data in the inner Milky Way reveals an extended gamma-ray excess. The anomalous emission falls steeply away from the galactic center and has an energy spectrum that peaks at 1-2 GeV. An important question is whether the signal is coming from a collection of unresolved point sources, possibly recycled pulsars, or constitutes a truly diffuse emission component. Previous analyses have relied on non-Poissonian template fits or wavelet decomposition of the Fermi-LAT data, which find evidence for a population of dim point sources just below the 3FGL flux limit. In order to draw conclusions about a potentially dim population, we propose to sample from the catalog space of point sources, where the model dimensionality, i.e., the number of sources, is unknown. Although being a computationally expensive sampling problem, this approach allows us to infer the number, flux and radial distribution of the point sources consistent with the observed count data. Probabilistic cataloging is specifically useful in the crowded field limit, such as in the galactic disk, where the typical separation between point sources is comparable to the PSF. Using this approach, we recover the results of the deterministic Fermi-LAT 3FGL catalog, as well as sub-detection threshold information and fold the point source parameter degeneracies into the model-choice problem of whether an emission is coming from unresolved MSPs or dark matter annihilation.

  1. Source parameters of major earthquakes near Kiruna, Northern Sweden, deduced from synthetic seismogram computation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, W.Y.; Skordas, E.; Zhou, Y.P.; Kulhanek, O.


    The earthquakes that have occurred around Kiruna in northern Sweden have been studied in detail in order to determine their source characteristics and to understand the pattern of seismic acticity in the region. All earthquakes with magnitude greater than 3.0 (M L ) that occurred during the period between 1967 and 1985 in the region bounded by 66.5 degrees - 69 degrees N and 19 degrees - 25 degrees E are studied. Relocated epicenters of the events exhibit a cluster of events in a direction NE - SW at at the western side of the region close to Kiruna, Though, the focal depths of the events are not very well constrained, the relocation results suggest that the events in this cluster might have occurred at focal depths between 15 and 25 km. At the easstern side of the region, the epicenters are roughly aligned along an elongated area trending NNW - SSE. The focal depths of the events in this area tend to be shallow and are probably in the upper crust at the depths range from 5 to 16 km. The earthquakes studied show nearly constant source radii of about 0.4 - 0.6 km over the seismic moment range 10 20 to 10 21 dyne-cm. Consequently, the events studied are characterized by a steadily incresing stress drop relative to increasing seismic moment. The source mechanisms obtained for the two largest earthquakes suggest that the mechanisms are dominated by the normal faultings on the near-vertical fault planes trending N - S to NE - SW. (With 26 refs.) (authors)

  2. Source characteristics of the Fairview, OK, earthquake sequence and its relationship to industrial activities (United States)

    Yeck, W. L.; Weingarten, M.; Benz, H.; McNamara, D. E.; Herrmann, R. B.; Rubinstein, J. L.; Earle, P. S.; Bergman, E.


    We characterize the spatio-temporal patterns of seismicity surrounding the February 13, 2016, Mw 5.1 Fairview, Oklahoma earthquake. This earthquake sequence accounts for the largest moment release in the central and eastern US since the November 06, 2011 Mw 5.6 Prague, OK earthquake sequence. To improve the location accuracy of the sequence and measure near-source ground motions, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) deployed eight seismometers and accelerometers in the epicentral region. With the added depth control from these stations, we show that earthquakes primarily occur in the Precambrian basement, at depths of 6-10 km below sea level. The Mw 5.1 mainshock, the largest event in the cluster, locates near the base of the seismicity. Relocated aftershocks delineate a partially unmapped, 14-km-long fault segment that strikes approximately N40°E, partially bridging the gap between previously mapped basement faults to the southwest and northeast. Gas production and hydraulic fracking data from the region show no evidence that either of these activities correlates spatio-temporally with the Fairview sequence. Instead, we suggest that a series of high-rate, Arbuckle injection wells (> 300,000 bbls/month) 8-25 km northeast of this sequence pressurized the reservoir in the far field. Regional injection into the Arbuckle formation increased 7-fold in the 24 months before the initiation of the sequence with some wells operating at rates greater than 1 million barrels per month. Seismicity in the proximity of the high-rate wells is diffuse whilst the energetic Fairview sequence occurs more than 15 km from this region. Our observations point to the critical role pre-existing geologic structures play in the occurrence of large induced earthquakes. This study demonstrates the need for a better understanding of the role of far-field pressurization. High-quality data sets such as this facilitate the USGS mission to improve earthquake hazard identification, especially

  3. Earthquake prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, P.L.


    The state of the art of earthquake prediction is summarized, the possible responses to such prediction are examined, and some needs in the present prediction program and in research related to use of this new technology are reviewed. Three basic aspects of earthquake prediction are discussed: location of the areas where large earthquakes are most likely to occur, observation within these areas of measurable changes (earthquake precursors) and determination of the area and time over which the earthquake will occur, and development of models of the earthquake source in order to interpret the precursors reliably. 6 figures

  4. Source spectral properties of small-to-moderate earthquakes in southern Kansas (United States)

    Trugman, Daniel T.; Dougherty, Sara L.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Shearer, Peter M.


    The source spectral properties of injection-induced earthquakes give insight into their nucleation, rupture processes, and influence on ground motion. Here we apply a spectral decomposition approach to analyze P-wave spectra and estimate Brune-type stress drop for more than 2000 ML1.5–5.2 earthquakes occurring in southern Kansas from 2014 to 2016. We find that these earthquakes are characterized by low stress drop values (median ∼0.4MPa) compared to natural seismicity in California. We observe a significant increase in stress drop as a function of depth, but the shallow depth distribution of these events is not by itself sufficient to explain their lower stress drop. Stress drop increases with magnitude from M1.5–M3.5, but this scaling trend may weaken above M4 and also depends on the assumed source model. Although we observe a nonstationary, sequence-specific temporal evolution in stress drop, we find no clear systematic relation with the activity of nearby injection wells.

  5. Source modeling of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Nepal (Gorkha) earthquake sequence: Implications for geodynamics and earthquake hazards (United States)

    McNamara, D. E.; Yeck, W. L.; Barnhart, W. D.; Schulte-Pelkum, V.; Bergman, E.; Adhikari, L. B.; Dixit, A.; Hough, S. E.; Benz, H. M.; Earle, P. S.


    The Gorkha earthquake on April 25th, 2015 was a long anticipated, low-angle thrust-faulting event on the shallow décollement between the India and Eurasia plates. We present a detailed multiple-event hypocenter relocation analysis of the Mw 7.8 Gorkha Nepal earthquake sequence, constrained by local seismic stations, and a geodetic rupture model based on InSAR and GPS data. We integrate these observations to place the Gorkha earthquake sequence into a seismotectonic context and evaluate potential earthquake hazard. Major results from this study include (1) a comprehensive catalog of calibrated hypocenters for the Gorkha earthquake sequence; (2) the Gorkha earthquake ruptured a 150 × 60 km patch of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), the décollement defining the plate boundary at depth, over an area surrounding but predominantly north of the capital city of Kathmandu (3) the distribution of aftershock seismicity surrounds the mainshock maximum slip patch; (4) aftershocks occur at or below the mainshock rupture plane with depths generally increasing to the north beneath the higher Himalaya, possibly outlining a 10-15 km thick subduction channel between the overriding Eurasian and subducting Indian plates; (5) the largest Mw 7.3 aftershock and the highest concentration of aftershocks occurred to the southeast the mainshock rupture, on a segment of the MHT décollement that was positively stressed towards failure; (6) the near surface portion of the MHT south of Kathmandu shows no aftershocks or slip during the mainshock. Results from this study characterize the details of the Gorkha earthquake sequence and provide constraints on where earthquake hazard remains high, and thus where future, damaging earthquakes may occur in this densely populated region. Up-dip segments of the MHT should be considered to be high hazard for future damaging earthquakes.

  6. Source modeling of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Nepal (Gorkha) earthquake sequence: Implications for geodynamics and earthquake hazards (United States)

    McNamara, Daniel E.; Yeck, William; Barnhart, William D.; Schulte-Pelkum, V.; Bergman, E.; Adhikari, L. B.; Dixit, Amod; Hough, S.E.; Benz, Harley M.; Earle, Paul


    The Gorkha earthquake on April 25th, 2015 was a long anticipated, low-angle thrust-faulting event on the shallow décollement between the India and Eurasia plates. We present a detailed multiple-event hypocenter relocation analysis of the Mw 7.8 Gorkha Nepal earthquake sequence, constrained by local seismic stations, and a geodetic rupture model based on InSAR and GPS data. We integrate these observations to place the Gorkha earthquake sequence into a seismotectonic context and evaluate potential earthquake hazard.Major results from this study include (1) a comprehensive catalog of calibrated hypocenters for the Gorkha earthquake sequence; (2) the Gorkha earthquake ruptured a ~ 150 × 60 km patch of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), the décollement defining the plate boundary at depth, over an area surrounding but predominantly north of the capital city of Kathmandu (3) the distribution of aftershock seismicity surrounds the mainshock maximum slip patch; (4) aftershocks occur at or below the mainshock rupture plane with depths generally increasing to the north beneath the higher Himalaya, possibly outlining a 10–15 km thick subduction channel between the overriding Eurasian and subducting Indian plates; (5) the largest Mw 7.3 aftershock and the highest concentration of aftershocks occurred to the southeast the mainshock rupture, on a segment of the MHT décollement that was positively stressed towards failure; (6) the near surface portion of the MHT south of Kathmandu shows no aftershocks or slip during the mainshock. Results from this study characterize the details of the Gorkha earthquake sequence and provide constraints on where earthquake hazard remains high, and thus where future, damaging earthquakes may occur in this densely populated region. Up-dip segments of the MHT should be considered to be high hazard for future damaging earthquakes.

  7. Landquake dynamics inferred from seismic source inversion: Greenland and Sichuan events of 2017 (United States)

    Chao, W. A.


    In June 2017 two catastrophic landquake events occurred in Greenland and Sichuan. The Greenland event leads to tsunami hazard in the small town of Nuugaarsiaq. A landquake in Sichuan hit the town, which resulted in over 100 death. Both two events generated the strong seismic signals recorded by the real-time global seismic network. I adopt an inversion algorithm to derive the landquake force time history (LFH) using the long-period waveforms, and the landslide volume ( 76 million m3) can be rapidly estimated, facilitating the tsunami-wave modeling for early warning purpose. Based on an integrated approach involving tsunami forward simulation and seismic waveform inversion, this study has significant implications to issuing actionable warnings before hazardous tsunami waves strike populated areas. Two single-forces (SFs) mechanism (two block model) yields the best explanation for Sichuan event, which demonstrates that secondary event (seismic inferred volume: 8.2 million m3) may be mobilized by collapse-mass hitting from initial rock avalanches ( 5.8 million m3), likely causing a catastrophic disaster. The later source with a force magnitude of 0.9967×1011 N occurred 70 seconds after first mass-movement occurrence. In contrast, first event has the smaller force magnitude of 0.8116×1011 N. In conclusion, seismically inferred physical parameters will substantially contribute to improving our understanding of landquake source mechanisms and mitigating similar hazards in other parts of the world.

  8. Earthquake source scaling and self-similarity estimation from stacking P and S spectra (United States)

    Prieto, GermáN. A.; Shearer, Peter M.; Vernon, Frank L.; Kilb, Debi


    We study the scaling relationships of source parameters and the self-similarity of earthquake spectra by analyzing a cluster of over 400 small earthquakes (ML = 0.5 to 3.4) recorded by the Anza seismic network in southern California. We compute P, S, and preevent noise spectra from each seismogram using a multitaper technique and approximate source and receiver terms by iteratively stacking the spectra. To estimate scaling relationships, we average the spectra in size bins based on their relative moment. We correct for attenuation by using the smallest moment bin as an empirical Green's function (EGF) for the stacked spectra in the larger moment bins. The shapes of the log spectra agree within their estimated uncertainties after shifting along the ω-3 line expected for self-similarity of the source spectra. We also estimate corner frequencies and radiated energy from the relative source spectra using a simple source model. The ratio between radiated seismic energy and seismic moment (proportional to apparent stress) is nearly constant with increasing moment over the magnitude range of our EGF-corrected data (ML = 1.8 to 3.4). Corner frequencies vary inversely as the cube root of moment, as expected from the observed self-similarity in the spectra. The ratio between P and S corner frequencies is observed to be 1.6 ± 0.2. We obtain values for absolute moment and energy by calibrating our results to local magnitudes for these earthquakes. This yields a S to P energy ratio of 9 ± 1.5 and a value of apparent stress of about 1 MPa.

  9. Using neutral network to infer the hydrodynamic yield of aspherical sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moran, B.; Glenn, L.A.


    We distinguish two kinds of difficulties with yield determination from aspherical sources. The first kind, the spoofing difficulty, occurs when a fraction of the energy of the explosion is channeled in such a way that it is not detected by the CORRTEX cable. In this case, neither neural networks nor any expert system can be expected to accurately estimate the yield without detailed information about device emplacement within the canister. Numerical simulations however, can provide an upper bound on the undetected fraction of the explosive energy. In the second instance, the interpretation difficulty, the data appear abnormal when analyzed using similar-explosion-scaling and the assumption of a spherical front. The inferred yield varies with time and the confidence in the yield estimate decreases. It is this kind of problem we address in this paper and for which neural networks can make a contribution. We used a back propagation neural network to infer the hydrodynamic yield of simulated aspherical sources. We trained the network using a subset of simulations from 3 different aspherical sources, with 3 different yields, and 3 satellite offset separations. The trained network was able to predict the yield within 15% in all cases and to identify the correct type of aspherical source in most cases. The predictive capability of the network increased with a larger training set. The neural network approach can easily incorporate information from new calculations or experiments and is therefore flexible and easy to maintain. We describe the potential capabilities and limitations in using such networks for yield estimations

  10. Near-field hazard assessment of March 11, 2011 Japan Tsunami sources inferred from different methods (United States)

    Wei, Y.; Titov, V.V.; Newman, A.; Hayes, G.; Tang, L.; Chamberlin, C.


    Tsunami source is the origin of the subsequent transoceanic water waves, and thus the most critical component in modern tsunami forecast methodology. Although impractical to be quantified directly, a tsunami source can be estimated by different methods based on a variety of measurements provided by deep-ocean tsunameters, seismometers, GPS, and other advanced instruments, some in real time, some in post real-time. Here we assess these different sources of the devastating March 11, 2011 Japan tsunami by model-data comparison for generation, propagation and inundation in the near field of Japan. This study provides a comparative study to further understand the advantages and shortcomings of different methods that may be potentially used in real-time warning and forecast of tsunami hazards, especially in the near field. The model study also highlights the critical role of deep-ocean tsunami measurements for high-quality tsunami forecast, and its combination with land GPS measurements may lead to better understanding of both the earthquake mechanisms and tsunami generation process. ?? 2011 MTS.

  11. Seismic Hazard characterization study using an earthquake source with Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) method in the Northern of Sumatra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yahya, A.; Palupi, M. I. R.; Suharsono


    Sumatra region is one of the earthquake-prone areas in Indonesia because it is lie on an active tectonic zone. In 2004 there is earthquake with a moment magnitude of 9.2 located on the coast with the distance 160 km in the west of Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam and triggering a tsunami. These events take a lot of casualties and material losses, especially in the Province of Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam and North Sumatra. To minimize the impact of the earthquake disaster, a fundamental assessment of the earthquake hazard in the region is needed. Stages of research include the study of literature, collection and processing of seismic data, seismic source characterization and analysis of earthquake hazard by probabilistic methods (PSHA) used earthquake catalog from 1907 through 2014. The earthquake hazard represented by the value of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and Spectral Acceleration (SA) in the period of 0.2 and 1 second on bedrock that is presented in the form of a map with a return period of 2475 years and the earthquake hazard curves for the city of Medan and Banda Aceh. (paper)

  12. Tsunami source of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (United States)

    Fujii, Yushiro; Satake, Kenji; Sakai, Shin'ichi; Shinohara, Masanao; Kanazawa, Toshihiko


    Tsunami waveform inversion for the 11 March, 2011, off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake ( M 9.0) indicates that the source of the largest tsunami was located near the axis of the Japan trench. Ocean-bottom pressure, and GPS wave, gauges recorded two-step tsunami waveforms: a gradual increase of sea level (~2 m) followed by an impulsive tsunami wave (3 to 5 m). The slip distribution estimated from 33 coastal tide gauges, offshore GPS wave gauges and bottom-pressure gauges show that the large slip, more than 40 m, was located along the trench axis. This offshore slip, similar but much larger than the 1896 Sanriku "tsunami earthquake," is responsible for the recorded large impulsive peak. Large slip on the plate interface at southern Sanriku-oki (~30 m) and Miyagi-oki (~17 m) around the epicenter, a similar location with larger slip than the previously proposed fault model of the 869 Jogan earthquake, is responsible for the initial water-level rise and, presumably, the large tsunami inundation in Sendai plain. The interplate slip is ~10 m in Fukushima-oki, and less than 3 m in the Ibaraki-oki region. The total seismic moment is estimated as 3.8 × 1022 N m ( M w = 9.0).

  13. Source and progression of a submarine landslide and tsunami: The 1964 Great Alaska earthquake at Valdez (United States)

    Parsons, Tom; Geist, Eric L.; Ryan, Holly F.; Lee, Homa J.; Haeussler, Peter J.; Lynett, Patrick; Hart, Patrick E.; Sliter, Ray; Roland, Emily


    Like many subduction zone earthquakes, the deadliest aspects of the 1964 M = 9.2 Alaska earthquake were the tsunamis it caused. The worst of these were generated by local submarine landslides induced by the earthquake. These caused high runups, engulfing several coastal towns in Prince William Sound. In this paper, we study one of these cases in detail, the Port Valdez submarine landslide and tsunami. We combine eyewitness reports, preserved film, and careful posttsunami surveys with new geophysical data to inform numerical models for landslide tsunami generation. We review the series of events as recorded at Valdez old town and then determine the corresponding subsurface events that led to the tsunami. We build digital elevation models of part of the pretsunami and posttsunami fjord-head delta. Comparing them reveals a 1500 m long region that receded 150 m to the east, which we interpret as the primary delta landslide source. Multibeam imagery and high-resolution seismic reflection data identify a 400 m wide chute with hummocky deposits at its terminus, which may define the primary slide path. Using these elements we run hydrodynamic models of the landslide-driven tsunamis that match observations of current direction, maximum inundation, and wave height at Valdez old town. We speculate that failure conditions at the delta front may have been influenced by manmade changes in drainage patterns as well as the fast retreat of Valdez and other glaciers during the past century.

  14. Source of 1629 Banda Mega-Thrust Earthquake and Tsunami: Implications for Tsunami Hazard Evaluation in Eastern Indonesia (United States)

    Major, J. R.; Liu, Z.; Harris, R. A.; Fisher, T. L.


    Using Dutch records of geophysical events in Indonesia over the past 400 years, and tsunami modeling, we identify tsunami sources that have caused severe devastation in the past and are likely to reoccur in the near future. The earthquake history of Western Indonesia has received much attention since the 2004 Sumatra earthquakes and subsequent events. However, strain rates along a variety of plate boundary segments are just as high in eastern Indonesia where the earthquake history has not been investigated. Due to the rapid population growth in this region it is essential and urgent to evaluate its earthquake and tsunami hazards. Arthur Wichmann's 'Earthquakes of the Indian Archipelago' shows that there were 30 significant earthquakes and 29 tsunami between 1629 to 1877. One of the largest and best documented is the great earthquake and tsunami effecting the Banda islands on 1 August, 1629. It caused severe damage from a 15 m tsunami that arrived at the Banda Islands about a half hour after the earthquake. The earthquake was also recorded 230 km away in Ambon, but no tsunami is mentioned. This event was followed by at least 9 years of aftershocks. The combination of these observations indicates that the earthquake was most likely a mega-thrust event. We use a numerical simulation of the tsunami to locate the potential sources of the 1629 mega-thrust event and evaluate the tsunami hazard in Eastern Indonesia. The numerical simulation was tested to establish the tsunami run-up amplification factor for this region by tsunami simulations of the 1992 Flores Island (Hidayat et al., 1995) and 2006 Java (Katoet al., 2007) earthquake events. The results yield a tsunami run-up amplification factor of 1.5 and 3, respectively. However, the Java earthquake is a unique case of slow rupture that was hardly felt. The fault parameters of recent earthquakes in the Banda region are used for the models. The modeling narrows the possibilities of mega-thrust events the size of the one

  15. Rapid Source Characterization of the 2011 Mw 9.0 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (United States)

    Hayes, Gavin P.


    On March 11th, 2011, a moment magnitude 9.0 earthquake struck off the coast of northeast Honshu, Japan, generating what may well turn out to be the most costly natural disaster ever. In the hours following the event, the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center led a rapid response to characterize the earthquake in terms of its location, size, faulting source, shaking and slip distributions, and population exposure, in order to place the disaster in a framework necessary for timely humanitarian response. As part of this effort, fast finite-fault inversions using globally distributed body- and surface-wave data were used to estimate the slip distribution of the earthquake rupture. Models generated within 7 hours of the earthquake origin time indicated that the event ruptured a fault up to 300 km long, roughly centered on the earthquake hypocenter, and involved peak slips of 20 m or more. Updates since this preliminary solution improve the details of this inversion solution and thus our understanding of the rupture process. However, significant observations such as the up-dip nature of rupture propagation and the along-strike length of faulting did not significantly change, demonstrating the usefulness of rapid source characterization for understanding the first order characteristics of major earthquakes.

  16. Reliability of Coulomb stress changes inferred from correlated uncertainties of finite-fault source models

    KAUST Repository

    Woessner, J.


    Static stress transfer is one physical mechanism to explain triggered seismicity. Coseismic stress-change calculations strongly depend on the parameterization of the causative finite-fault source model. These models are uncertain due to uncertainties in input data, model assumptions, and modeling procedures. However, fault model uncertainties have usually been ignored in stress-triggering studies and have not been propagated to assess the reliability of Coulomb failure stress change (ΔCFS) calculations. We show how these uncertainties can be used to provide confidence intervals for co-seismic ΔCFS-values. We demonstrate this for the MW = 5.9 June 2000 Kleifarvatn earthquake in southwest Iceland and systematically map these uncertainties. A set of 2500 candidate source models from the full posterior fault-parameter distribution was used to compute 2500 ΔCFS maps. We assess the reliability of the ΔCFS-values from the coefficient of variation (CV) and deem ΔCFS-values to be reliable where they are at least twice as large as the standard deviation (CV ≤ 0.5). Unreliable ΔCFS-values are found near the causative fault and between lobes of positive and negative stress change, where a small change in fault strike causes ΔCFS-values to change sign. The most reliable ΔCFS-values are found away from the source fault in the middle of positive and negative ΔCFS-lobes, a likely general pattern. Using the reliability criterion, our results support the static stress-triggering hypothesis. Nevertheless, our analysis also suggests that results from previous stress-triggering studies not considering source model uncertainties may have lead to a biased interpretation of the importance of static stress-triggering.

  17. Earthquake clustering inferred from Pliocene Gilbert-type fan deltas in the Loreto basin, Baja California Sur, Mexico (United States)

    Dorsey, Rebecca J.; Umhoefer, Paul J.; Falk, Peter D.


    A stacked sequence of Pliocene Gilbert-type fan deltas in the Loreto basin was shed from the footwall of the dextral-normal Loreto fault and deposited at the margin of a marine basin during rapid fault-controlled subsidence. Fan-delta parasequences coarsen upward from marine siltstone and sandstone at the base, through sandy bottomsets and gravelly foresets, to gravelly nonmarine topsets. Each topset unit is capped by a thin shell bed that records marine flooding of the delta plain. Several mechanisms may have produced repetitive vertical stacking of Gilbert deltas: (1) autocyclic delta-lobe switching; (2) eustatic sea-level fluctuations; (3) climatically controlled fluctuations in sediment input; and (4) episodic subsidence produced by temporal clustering of earthquakes. We favor hypothesis 4 for several reasons, but hypotheses 2 and 3 cannot be rejected at this time. Earthquake clustering can readily produce episodic subsidence at spatial and temporal scales consistent with stratigraphic trends observed in the Loreto basin. This model is supported by comparison with paleoseismological studies that document clustering on active faults over a wide range of time scales. Earthquake clustering is a new concept in basin analysis that may be helpful for understanding repetitive stratigraphy in tectonically active basins.

  18. Responses of a 58-story RC dual core shear wall and outrigger frame building inferred from two earthquakes (United States)

    Çelebi, Mehmet


    Responses of a dual core shear-wall and outrigger-framed 58-story building recorded during the Mw6.0 Napa earthquake of 24 August 2014 and the Mw3.8 Berkeley earthquake of 20 October 2011 are used to identify its dynamic characteristics and behavior. Fundamental frequencies are 0.28 Hz (NS), 0.25 Hz (EW), and 0.43 Hz (torsional). Rigid body motions due to rocking are not significant. Average drift ratios are small. Outrigger frames do not affect average drift ratios or mode shapes. Local site effects do not affect the response; however, response associated with deeper structure may be substantial. A beating effect is observed from data of both earthquakes but beating periods are not consistent. Low critical damping ratios may have contributed to the beating effect. Torsion is relatively larger above outriggers as indicated by the time-histories of motions at the roof, possibly due to the discontinuity of the stiffer shear walls above level 47.

  19. Adapting Controlled-source Coherence Analysis to Dense Array Data in Earthquake Seismology (United States)

    Schwarz, B.; Sigloch, K.; Nissen-Meyer, T.


    Exploration seismology deals with highly coherent wave fields generated by repeatable controlled sources and recorded by dense receiver arrays, whose geometry is tailored to back-scattered energy normally neglected in earthquake seismology. Owing to these favorable conditions, stacking and coherence analysis are routinely employed to suppress incoherent noise and regularize the data, thereby strongly contributing to the success of subsequent processing steps, including migration for the imaging of back-scattering interfaces or waveform tomography for the inversion of velocity structure. Attempts have been made to utilize wave field coherence on the length scales of passive-source seismology, e.g. for the imaging of transition-zone discontinuities or the core-mantle-boundary using reflected precursors. Results are however often deteriorated due to the sparse station coverage and interference of faint back-scattered with transmitted phases. USArray sampled wave fields generated by earthquake sources at an unprecedented density and similar array deployments are ongoing or planned in Alaska, the Alps and Canada. This makes the local coherence of earthquake data an increasingly valuable resource to exploit.Building on the experience in controlled-source surveys, we aim to extend the well-established concept of beam-forming to the richer toolbox that is nowadays used in seismic exploration. We suggest adapted strategies for local data coherence analysis, where summation is performed with operators that extract the local slope and curvature of wave fronts emerging at the receiver array. Besides estimating wave front properties, we demonstrate that the inherent data summation can also be used to generate virtual station responses at intermediate locations where no actual deployment was performed. Owing to the fact that stacking acts as a directional filter, interfering coherent wave fields can be efficiently separated from each other by means of coherent subtraction. We

  20. Romanian crustal earthquake sequences: evidence for space and time clustering in correlation with seismic source properties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Popescu, E.; Popa, M.; Radulian, M.


    The study of seismic sequences is important from both scientific point of view, and its socio-economical impact on human society. In this paper we analyze the crustal earthquake sequences in correlation with the seismogenic zones delimited on the Romanian territory using geological and tectonic information available. We consider on one hand the sequences typical for the Carpathians foreland region (Ramnicu Sarat, Vrancioaia and Sinaia seismic zones), which are associated with the Vrancea subduction process and, on the other hand the sequences typical for the contact between the Pannonian Basin and Carpathians orogen (Banat seismic zone). To analyze the seismicity and source properties, we applied the fractal statistics and relative methods such as spectral ratio and deconvolution with the empirical Green's functions. On the basis of the retrieved source parameters for small and moderate size events the scaling relations for the characteristic properties of the seismic source are estimated. The scaling and earthquake clustering properties are correlated with the geological and rheological properties of the studied seismic areas. (authors)

  1. Uncertainty Quantification in Earthquake Source Characterization with Probabilistic Centroid Moment Tensor Inversion (United States)

    Dettmer, J.; Benavente, R. F.; Cummins, P. R.


    This work considers probabilistic, non-linear centroid moment tensor inversion of data from earthquakes at teleseismic distances. The moment tensor is treated as deviatoric and centroid location is parametrized with fully unknown latitude, longitude, depth and time delay. The inverse problem is treated as fully non-linear in a Bayesian framework and the posterior density is estimated with interacting Markov chain Monte Carlo methods which are implemented in parallel and allow for chain interaction. The source mechanism and location, including uncertainties, are fully described by the posterior probability density and complex trade-offs between various metrics are studied. These include the percent of double couple component as well as fault orientation and the probabilistic results are compared to results from earthquake catalogs. Additional focus is on the analysis of complex events which are commonly not well described by a single point source. These events are studied by jointly inverting for multiple centroid moment tensor solutions. The optimal number of sources is estimated by the Bayesian information criterion to ensure parsimonious solutions. [Supported by NSERC.

  2. Source parameters estimation of 2003 Bam earthquake Mw 6.5 ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)


    The 1995 Colima-Jalisco, Mexico, earthquake (Mw 8):. A study of the rupture process; Geophys. Res. Lett. 24. 1019–1022. EERI Special Earthquake Report 2004 Earthquake Engi- neering Research Institute (EERI) Preliminary Observa- tions on the Bam, Iran, Earthquake of December 26, 2003. Frankel A, Fletcher J, ...

  3. Denitrification and inference of nitrogen sources in the karstic Floridan Aquifer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. B. Heffernan


    Full Text Available Aquifer denitrification is among the most poorly constrained fluxes in global and regional nitrogen budgets. The few direct measurements of denitrification in groundwaters provide limited information about its spatial and temporal variability, particularly at the scale of whole aquifers. Uncertainty in estimates of denitrification may also lead to underestimates of its effect on isotopic signatures of inorganic N, and thereby confound the inference of N source from these data. In this study, our objectives are to quantify the magnitude and variability of denitrification in the Upper Floridan Aquifer (UFA and evaluate its effect on N isotopic signatures at the regional scale. Using dual noble gas tracers (Ne, Ar to generate physical predictions of N2 gas concentrations for 112 observations from 61 UFA springs, we show that excess (i.e. denitrification-derived N2 is highly variable in space and inversely correlated with dissolved oxygen (O2. Negative relationships between O2 and δ15NNO3 across a larger dataset of 113 springs, well-constrained isotopic fractionation coefficients, and strong 15N:18O covariation further support inferences of denitrification in this uniquely organic-matter-poor system. Despite relatively low average rates, denitrification accounted for 32 % of estimated aquifer N inputs across all sampled UFA springs. Back-calculations of source δ15NNO3 based on denitrification progression suggest that isotopically-enriched nitrate (NO3 in many springs of the UFA reflects groundwater denitrification rather than urban- or animal-derived inputs.

  4. Revision of earthquake hypocentre locations in global bulletin data sets using source-specific station terms (United States)

    Nooshiri, Nima; Saul, Joachim; Heimann, Sebastian; Tilmann, Frederik; Dahm, Torsten


    Global earthquake locations are often associated with very large systematic travel-time residuals even for clear arrivals, especially for regional and near-regional stations in subduction zones because of their strongly heterogeneous velocity structure. Travel-time corrections can drastically reduce travel-time residuals at regional stations and, in consequence, improve the relative location accuracy. We have extended the shrinking-box source-specific station terms technique to regional and teleseismic distances and adopted the algorithm for probabilistic, nonlinear, global-search location. We evaluated the potential of the method to compute precise relative hypocentre locations on a global scale. The method has been applied to two specific test regions using existing P- and pP-phase picks. The first data set consists of 3103 events along the Chilean margin and the second one comprises 1680 earthquakes in the Tonga-Fiji subduction zone. Pick data were obtained from the GEOFON earthquake bulletin, produced using data from all available, global station networks. A set of timing corrections varying as a function of source position was calculated for each seismic station. In this way, we could correct the systematic errors introduced into the locations by the inaccuracies in the assumed velocity structure without explicitly solving for a velocity model. Residual statistics show that the median absolute deviation of the travel-time residuals is reduced by 40-60 per cent at regional distances, where the velocity anomalies are strong. Moreover, the spread of the travel-time residuals decreased by ˜20 per cent at teleseismic distances (>28°). Furthermore, strong variations in initial residuals as a function of recording distance are smoothed out in the final residuals. The relocated catalogues exhibit less scattered locations in depth and sharper images of the seismicity associated with the subducting slabs. Comparison with a high-resolution local catalogue reveals that

  5. The 1911 M ~6.6 Calaveras earthquake: Source parameters and the role of static, viscoelastic, and dynamic coulomb stress changes imparted by the 1906 San Francisco earthquake (United States)

    Doser, D.I.; Olsen, K.B.; Pollitz, F.F.; Stein, R.S.; Toda, S.


    The occurrence of a right-lateral strike-slip earthquake in 1911 is inconsistent with the calculated 0.2-2.5 bar static stress decrease imparted by the 1906 rupture at that location on the Calaveras fault, and 5 yr of calculated post-1906 viscoelastic rebound does little to reload the fault. We have used all available first-motion, body-wave, and surface-wave data to explore possible focal mechanisms for the 1911 earthquake. We find that the event was most likely a right-lateral strikeslip event on the Calaveras fault, larger than, but otherwise resembling, the 1984 Mw 6.1 Morgan Hill earthquake in roughly the same location. Unfortunately, we could recover no unambiguous surface fault offset or geodetic strain data to corroborate the seismic analysis despite an exhaustive archival search. We calculated the static and dynamic Coulomb stress changes for three 1906 source models to understand stress transfer to the 1911 site. In contrast to the static stress shadow, the peak dynamic Coulomb stress imparted by the 1906 rupture promoted failure at the site of the 1911 earthquake by 1.4-5.8 bar. Perhaps because the sample is small and the aftershocks are poorly located, we find no correlation of 1906 aftershock frequency or magnitude with the peak dynamic stress, although all aftershocks sustained a calculated dynamic stress of ???3 bar. Just 20 km to the south of the 1911 epicenter, we find that surface creep of the Calaveras fault at Hollister paused for ~17 yr after 1906, about the expected delay for the calculated static stress drop imparted by the 1906 earthquake when San Andreas fault postseismic creep and viscoelastic relaxation are included. Thus, the 1911 earthquake may have been promoted by the transient dynamic stresses, while Calaveras fault creep 20 km to the south appears to have been inhibited by the static stress changes.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Pararas-Carayannis


    Full Text Available The great Tohoku earthquake of March 11, 2011 generated a very destructive and anomalously high tsunami. To understand its source mechanism, an examination was undertaken of the seismotectonics of the region and of the earthquake’ focal mechanism, energy release, rupture patterns and spatial and temporal sequencing and clustering of major aftershocks. It was determined that the great tsunami resulted from a combination of crustal deformations of the ocean floor due to up-thrust tectonic motions, augmented by additional uplift due to the quake’s slow and long rupturing process, as well as to large coseismic lateral movements which compressed and deformed the compacted sediments along the accretionary prism of the overriding plane. The deformation occurred randomly and non-uniformly along parallel normal faults and along oblique, en-echelon faults to the earthquake’s overall rupture direction – the latter failing in a sequential bookshelf manner with variable slip angles. As the 1992 Nicaragua and the 2004 Sumatra earthquakes demonstrated, such bookshelf failures of sedimentary layers could contribute to anomalously high tsunamis. As with the 1896 tsunami, additional ocean floor deformation and uplift of the sediments was responsible for the higher waves generated by the 2011 earthquake. The efficiency of tsunami generation was greater along the shallow eastern segment of the fault off the Miyagi Prefecture where most of the energy release of the earthquake and the deformations occurred, while the segment off the Ibaraki Prefecture – where the rupture process was rapid – released less seismic energy, resulted in less compaction and deformation of sedimentary layers and thus to a tsunami of lesser offshore height. The greater tsunamigenic efficiency of the 2011 earthquake and high degree of the tsunami’s destructiveness along Honshu’s coastlines resulted from vertical crustal displacements of more than 10 meters due to up

  7. Dynamic rupture scenarios from Sumatra to Iceland - High-resolution earthquake source physics on natural fault systems (United States)

    Gabriel, Alice-Agnes; Madden, Elizabeth H.; Ulrich, Thomas; Wollherr, Stephanie


    Capturing the observed complexity of earthquake sources in dynamic rupture simulations may require: non-linear fault friction, thermal and fluid effects, heterogeneous fault stress and fault strength initial conditions, fault curvature and roughness, on- and off-fault non-elastic failure. All of these factors have been independently shown to alter dynamic rupture behavior and thus possibly influence the degree of realism attainable via simulated ground motions. In this presentation we will show examples of high-resolution earthquake scenarios, e.g. based on the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake, the 1994 Northridge earthquake and a potential rupture of the Husavik-Flatey fault system in Northern Iceland. The simulations combine a multitude of representations of source complexity at the necessary spatio-temporal resolution enabled by excellent scalability on modern HPC systems. Such simulations allow an analysis of the dominant factors impacting earthquake source physics and ground motions given distinct tectonic settings or distinct focuses of seismic hazard assessment. Across all simulations, we find that fault geometry concurrently with the regional background stress state provide a first order influence on source dynamics and the emanated seismic wave field. The dynamic rupture models are performed with SeisSol, a software package based on an ADER-Discontinuous Galerkin scheme for solving the spontaneous dynamic earthquake rupture problem with high-order accuracy in space and time. Use of unstructured tetrahedral meshes allows for a realistic representation of the non-planar fault geometry, subsurface structure and bathymetry. The results presented highlight the fact that modern numerical methods are essential to further our understanding of earthquake source physics and complement both physic-based ground motion research and empirical approaches in seismic hazard analysis.

  8. History of the great Kanto earthquakes inferred from the ages of Holocene marine terraces revealed by a comprehensive drilling survey (United States)

    Komori, Junki; Shishikura, Masanobu; Ando, Ryosuke; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Miyairi, Yosuke


    We measured the emergence ages of four marine terraces in the Chikura lowland, which lies to the southeast of the Boso Peninsula, in eastern Japan, to reevaluate the history of the great earthquake occurrences along the Sagami Trough over the past 10,000 years. The dates of the marine terraces are measured via radiocarbon dating of shell fossils obtained from the marine deposits. The sampling method employed in this study collects core samples using a dense and systematic drilling survey, which increased the reliability when correlating shell fossils with marine terraces. In addition, radiocarbon dating was performed with accelerator mass spectrometry, which produces more highly accurate measurements than those measured in previous studies. Moreover, we explored the surface profiles of the terraces with detailed digital elevation model (DEM) data obtained using LiDAR. The maximum emergence ages of the marine terraces were dated at 6300 cal yBP, 3000 cal yBP, and 2200 cal yBP from the top terrace excepting the lowest terrace (which was estimated at AD1703). In addition, another previously unrecognized terrace was detected between the highest and the second terrace in both the dating and the geomorphological analyses and was dated at 5800 cal yBP. The newly obtained ages are nearly a thousand of years younger than previously estimated ages; consequently, the intervals of the great earthquakes that occurred along the Sagami Trough are estimated to be much shorter and more varied than those of previous estimations. This result revises the data used in the current assessment of the probabilities of earthquakes along the Sagami Trough, which could devastate the Tokyo metropolitan area. Furthermore, it demonstrates that the current approach could be a powerful tool to increase the accuracy of assessments of the other areas with depositional marine terraces.

  9. Source characteristics of the 2015 Mw6.5 Lefkada, Greece, strike-slip earthquake (United States)

    Melgar, Diego; Ganas, Athanassios; Geng, Jianghui; Liang, Cunren; Fielding, Eric J.; Kassaras, Ioannis


    We present a kinematic slip model from the inversion of 1 Hz GPS, strong motion, and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data for the 2015 Mw6.5 Lefkada, Greece, earthquake. We will show that most of the slip during this event is updip of the hypocenter (10.7 km depth) with substantial slip (>0.5 m) between 5 km depth and the surface. The peak slip is 1.6 m, and the inverted rake angles show predominantly strike-slip motion. Slip concentrates mostly to the south of the hypocenter, and the source time function indicates a total duration of 17 s with peak moment rate at 6 s. We will show that a 65° dipping geometry is the most plausible due to a lack of polarity reversals in the InSAR data and good agreement with Coulomb stress modeling, aftershock locations, and regional moment tensors. We also note that there was an 20 cm peak-to-peak tsunami observed at one tide gauge station 300 km away from the earthquake. We will discuss tsunami modeling results and study the possible source of the amplitude discrepancy between the modeled and the observed data at far-field tide gauges.

  10. A probabilistic approach for the estimation of earthquake source parameters from spectral inversion (United States)

    Supino, M.; Festa, G.; Zollo, A.


    The amplitude spectrum of a seismic signal related to an earthquake source carries information about the size of the rupture, moment, stress and energy release. Furthermore, it can be used to characterize the Green's function of the medium crossed by the seismic waves. We describe the earthquake amplitude spectrum assuming a generalized Brune's (1970) source model, and direct P- and S-waves propagating in a layered velocity model, characterized by a frequency-independent Q attenuation factor. The observed displacement spectrum depends indeed on three source parameters, the seismic moment (through the low-frequency spectral level), the corner frequency (that is a proxy of the fault length) and the high-frequency decay parameter. These parameters are strongly correlated each other and with the quality factor Q; a rigorous estimation of the associated uncertainties and parameter resolution is thus needed to obtain reliable estimations.In this work, the uncertainties are characterized adopting a probabilistic approach for the parameter estimation. Assuming an L2-norm based misfit function, we perform a global exploration of the parameter space to find the absolute minimum of the cost function and then we explore the cost-function associated joint a-posteriori probability density function around such a minimum, to extract the correlation matrix of the parameters. The global exploration relies on building a Markov chain in the parameter space and on combining a deterministic minimization with a random exploration of the space (basin-hopping technique). The joint pdf is built from the misfit function using the maximum likelihood principle and assuming a Gaussian-like distribution of the parameters. It is then computed on a grid centered at the global minimum of the cost-function. The numerical integration of the pdf finally provides mean, variance and correlation matrix associated with the set of best-fit parameters describing the model. Synthetic tests are performed to

  11. Earthquake ground-motion in presence of source and medium heterogeneities

    KAUST Repository

    Vyas, Jagdish Chandra


    This dissertation work investigates the effects of earthquake rupture complexity and heterogeneities in Earth structure on near-field ground-motions. More specifically, we address two key issues in seismology: (1) near-field ground-shaking variability as function of distance and azimuth for unilateral directive ruptures, and (2) impact of rupture complexity and seismic scattering on Mach wave coherence associated with supershear rupture propagation. We examine earthquake ground-motion variability associated with unilateral ruptures based on ground-motion simulations of the MW 7.3 1992 Landers earthquake, eight simplified source models, and a MW 7.8 rupture simulation (ShakeOut) for the San Andreas fault. Our numerical modeling reveals that the ground-shaking variability in near-fault distances (< 20 km) is larger than that given by empirical ground motion prediction equations. In addition, the variability decreases with increasing distance from the source, exhibiting a power-law decay. The high near-field variability can be explained by strong directivity effects whose influence weaken as we move away from the fault. At the same time, the slope of the power-law decay is found to be dominantly controlled by slip heterogeneity. Furthermore, the ground-shaking variability is high in the rupture propagation direction whereas low in the directions perpendicular to it. However, the variability expressed as a function of azimuth is not only sensitive to slip heterogeneity, but also to rupture velocity. To study Mach wave coherence for supershear ruptures, we consider heterogeneities in rupture parameters (variations in slip, rise time and rupture speed) and 3D scattering media having small-scale random heterogeneities. The Mach wave coherence is reduced at near-fault distances (< 10 km) by the source heterogeneities. At the larger distances from the source, medium scattering plays the dominant role in reducing the Mach wave coherence. Combined effect of the source and

  12. Source parameter inversion for earthquakes in the Bardarbunga caldera (August 2014-February 2015) based on high-rate GPS data (United States)

    Rodríguez Cardozo, Félix; Hjörleifsdóttir, Vala; Jónsdóttir, Kristín; Geirsson, Halldor; Iglesias, Arturo


    In August 2014 a sequence of earthquakes took place in the Bardarbunga caldera (7x11 km) and a laterally propagating dike that connected the caldera with the Holuhraun lava field. The caldera earthquakes were coincident in time with the caldera subsidence ( 70 m) and the propagation of a dike, which ended in a fissural eruption in Holuhraun (Guðmundsson et al., 2016). The volcanic seismic sources represented by the moment tensor, commonly have a large non-double couple component, which implies that the source can not be described as a slip on a planar fault. However, encountering an apropiate physical mechanism that explain the non double couple component is a challenging task since there are several phenomena that could explain it, such as intrusive processes like dikes or sills (Kanamori et al 1993, Riel et al 2014) as well as geometric effects due slip on a curved fault (Nettles & Ekström, 1998). The earthquakes in the Bardarbunga caldera are quite interesting not only due to the magnitudes (around seventy events between 5.0radar (InSAR) also (Guðmundsson et al., 2016). Taking into account that the Bardarbunga caldera is covered by glacier (which makes difficult detecting changes in the surface using InSAR) and detecting waveforms in GPS stations is common only for large tectonics earthquakes (above Mw.7); observing a volcanic earthquakes simultaneously by InSAR and GPS is a rare and outstanding opportunity for constrain the volcanic seismic source . Likewise, if we assume that all the subsidence earthquakes in Bardarbunga have a common seismic source, we can use the same fault plane costrained for the 18th september earthquake, for inverting the seismic source of all the events in the caldera, only variying some parameters such as half duration and time shift. In this work, we obtained a source parameter for the 18th september earthquake and used it as an inicial solution for looking for a model of several point sources, that depict all the earthquakes

  13. Bayesian Inference for Neural Electromagnetic Source Localization: Analysis of MEG Visual Evoked Activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    George, J.S.; Schmidt, D.M.; Wood, C.C.


    We have developed a Bayesian approach to the analysis of neural electromagnetic (MEG/EEG) data that can incorporate or fuse information from other imaging modalities and addresses the ill-posed inverse problem by sarnpliig the many different solutions which could have produced the given data. From these samples one can draw probabilistic inferences about regions of activation. Our source model assumes a variable number of variable size cortical regions of stimulus-correlated activity. An active region consists of locations on the cortical surf ace, within a sphere centered on some location in cortex. The number and radi of active regions can vary to defined maximum values. The goal of the analysis is to determine the posterior probability distribution for the set of parameters that govern the number, location, and extent of active regions. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to generate a large sample of sets of parameters distributed according to the posterior distribution. This sample is representative of the many different source distributions that could account for given data, and allows identification of probable (i.e. consistent) features across solutions. Examples of the use of this analysis technique with both simulated and empirical MEG data are presented

  14. Seismic structure of the Longmenshan area in SW China inferred from receiver function analysis: Implications for future large earthquakes (United States)

    He, Chuansong; Dong, Shuwen; Santosh, M.; Chen, Xuanhua


    Following the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan and 2013 Ms 7.0 Lushan earthquakes, the Longmenshan thrust-fault belt and the Songpan-Ganzi terrane have been the focus of several investigations. Here we use the H-k stacking technique and neighborhood algorithm to investigate the seismic structure of this area. Based on the presence of felsic lower crust and the Mesozoic crustal architecture of the Songpan-Ganzi and Longmenshan area, we exclude the model on the eastward flow of the middle and lower crust assigned as the cause for the crustal thickening in previous studies. In contrast, the E-W trending cumulative compression induced by the continued northward motion of the Indian plate and India-Asian collision are identified as the dominant factors leading to the crustal thickening in the Longmenshan thrust-fault region as well as the Songpan-Ganzi terrane. Particularly, the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan and 2013 Ms 7.0 Lushan earthquakes likely indicate the cumulative offsets and the E-W continuing compression.

  15. Selection of earthquake resistant design criteria for nuclear power plants: Methodology and technical cases: Dislocation models of near-source earthquake ground motion: A review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luco, J.E.


    The solutions available for a number of dynamic dislocation fault models are examined in an attempt at establishing some of the expected characteristics of earthquake ground motion in the near-source region. In particular, solutions for two-dimensional anti-plane shear and plane-strain models as well as for three-dimensional fault models in full space, uniform half-space and layered half-space media are reviewed

  16. Structural heterogeneities in the source area of the Mw 7.9 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake, China (United States)

    Wang, Z.; Fukao, Y.; Pei, S.


    The Mw 7.9 Wenchuan Earthquake occurred on May 12, 2008 (06:28:01 UTC) in the Longmen-Shan fault zone at the eastern margin of Tibet and adjacent to the Sichuan foreland basin, where as much as 9 m of coseismic slip was observed. This is the most significant earthquake to have struck China since the 1976 Tangshan Earthquake (Mw 7.6). Chinese authorities estimated more than 69,000 people were killed and 374,176 injured. About 1,485,000 people were forced into temporary shelters ( The coseismic faulting zone coincides roughly with this aftershock distribution. The extent of the great damage may have resulted from the variation of crustal structures along the tectonic thrust faulting and strike slipping zone, causing significant coseismic displacement and acceleration on a regional scale. For a better understanding of what may have triggered this earthquake and how the rupture proceeded after the initiation, we conducted an investigation of the seismic structure in the Wenchuan earthquake source area. A large number of arrival time data of P and Pn, S and Sn phases from local earthquakes were collected and inverted jointly for the three-dimensional P- and S-wave velocity (Vp and Vs) models. The Poisson's ratio model was then calculated from these velocity models. The overall patterns of Vp and Vs anomalies are similar to each other at any of these three depths. The Sichuan Basin is a distinct entity in tomographic images, anomalously slow at 13 km depth and anomalously fast at 20 km depth, in sharp contrast to the anomalies on the mountain side across the Longmen-Shan fault zone. The area of the fault zone is characterized in general by high Vp and Vs anomalies at a depth of 13 km, although a low Vp and Vs anomaly patch is present in the middle of a total fault length of 300 km. At depths around 20 km, low Vp and Vs anomalies dominate on the mountain side including its eastern margin, where the shallower (˜13 km) and deeper (˜30 km) depths are

  17. Geological and historical evidence of irregular recurrent earthquakes in Japan. (United States)

    Satake, Kenji


    Great (M∼8) earthquakes repeatedly occur along the subduction zones around Japan and cause fault slip of a few to several metres releasing strains accumulated from decades to centuries of plate motions. Assuming a simple 'characteristic earthquake' model that similar earthquakes repeat at regular intervals, probabilities of future earthquake occurrence have been calculated by a government committee. However, recent studies on past earthquakes including geological traces from giant (M∼9) earthquakes indicate a variety of size and recurrence interval of interplate earthquakes. Along the Kuril Trench off Hokkaido, limited historical records indicate that average recurrence interval of great earthquakes is approximately 100 years, but the tsunami deposits show that giant earthquakes occurred at a much longer interval of approximately 400 years. Along the Japan Trench off northern Honshu, recurrence of giant earthquakes similar to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake with an interval of approximately 600 years is inferred from historical records and tsunami deposits. Along the Sagami Trough near Tokyo, two types of Kanto earthquakes with recurrence interval of a few hundred years and a few thousand years had been recognized, but studies show that the recent three Kanto earthquakes had different source extents. Along the Nankai Trough off western Japan, recurrence of great earthquakes with an interval of approximately 100 years has been identified from historical literature, but tsunami deposits indicate that the sizes of the recurrent earthquakes are variable. Such variability makes it difficult to apply a simple 'characteristic earthquake' model for the long-term forecast, and several attempts such as use of geological data for the evaluation of future earthquake probabilities or the estimation of maximum earthquake size in each subduction zone are being conducted by government committees. © 2015 The Author(s).

  18. Structures of Xishan village landslide in Li County, Sichuan, China, inferred from high-frequency receiver functions of local earthquakes (United States)

    Wei, Z.; Chu, R.


    Teleseismic receiver function methods are widely used to study the deep structural information beneath the seismic station. However, teleseismic waveforms are difficult to extract the high-frequency receiver function, which are insufficient to constrain the shallow structure because of the inelastic attenuation effect of the earth. In this study, using the local earthquake waveforms collected from 3 broadband stations deployed on the Xishan village landslide in Li County in Sichuan Province, we used the high-frequency receiver function method to study the shallow structure beneath the landslide. We developed the Vp-k (Vp/Vs) staking method of receiver functions, and combined with the H-k stacking and waveform inversion methods of receiver functions to invert the landslide's thickness, S-wave velocity and average Vp/Vs ratio beneath these stations, and compared the thickness with the borehole results. Our results show small-scale lateral variety of velocity structure, a 78-143m/s lower S-wave velocity in the bottom layer and 2.4-3.1 Vp/Vs ratio in the landslide. The observed high Vp/Vs ratio and low S-wave velocity in the bottom layer of the landslide are consistent with low electrical resistivity and water-rich in the bottom layer, suggesting a weak shear strength and potential danger zone in landslide h1. Our study suggest that the local earthquake receiver function can obtain the shallow velocity structural information and supply some seismic constrains for the landslide catastrophe mitigation.

  19. Analysis the Source model of the 2009 Mw 7.6 Padang Earthquake in Sumatra Region using continuous GPS data (United States)

    Amertha Sanjiwani, I. D. M.; En, C. K.; Anjasmara, I. M.


    A seismic gap on the interface along the Sunda subduction zone has been proposed among the 2000, 2004, 2005 and 2007 great earthquakes. This seismic gap therefore plays an important role in the earthquake risk on the Sunda trench. The Mw 7.6 Padang earthquake, an intraslab event, was occurred on September 30, 2009 located at ± 250 km east of the Sunda trench, close to the seismic gap on the interface. To understand the interaction between the seismic gap and the Padang earthquake, twelves continuous GPS data from SUGAR are adopted in this study to estimate the source model of this event. The daily GPS coordinates one month before and after the earthquake were calculated by the GAMIT software. The coseismic displacements were evaluated based on the analysis of coordinate time series in Padang region. This geodetic network provides a rather good spatial coverage for examining the seismic source along the Padang region in detail. The general pattern of coseismic horizontal displacements is moving toward epicenter and also the trench. The coseismic vertical displacement pattern is uplift. The highest coseismic displacement derived from the MSAI station are 35.0 mm for horizontal component toward S32.1°W and 21.7 mm for vertical component. The second largest one derived from the LNNG station are 26.6 mm for horizontal component toward N68.6°W and 3.4 mm for vertical component. Next, we will use uniform stress drop inversion to invert the coseismic displacement field for estimating the source model. Then the relationship between the seismic gap on the interface and the intraslab Padang earthquake will be discussed in the next step. Keyword: seismic gap, Padang earthquake, coseismic displacement.

  20. Seismic Source Mechanism of Gas-Piston Activity at Kilauea Inferred from Inversion of Broadband Waveforms (United States)

    Chouet, B. A.; Dawson, P. B.


    Among the broad range of magmatic processes observed in the Overlook pit crater in Kilauea Caldera are recurring episodes of gas-piston activity. This activity is accompanied by repetitive seismic signals recorded by a broadband network deployed in the summit caldera. We use the seismic data to model the source mechanism of representative gas-piston events in a sequence that occurred on 20-25 August 2011 during a gentle inflation of the Kilauea summit. We apply a new waveform inversion method that accounts for the contributions from both translation and tilt in horizontal seismograms through the use of Green's functions representing the seismometer response to translation and tilt ground motions. This method enables a robust description of the source mechanism over the period range of 1 - 10,000 s. Most of the seismic wave field produced by gas-pistoning originates in a source region ~1 km below the eastern perimeter of Halema'uma'u pit crater. The observed waveforms are well explained by a simple volumetric source with geometry composed of two intersecting cracks featuring an east-striking crack (dike) dipping 80° to the north, intersecting a north-striking crack (inclined sheet) dipping 65° to the east. Each gas-piston event is characterized by a rapid inflation lasting a few minutes trailed by a slower deflation ramp extending up to 15 minutes, attributed to the efficient coupling at the source centroid location of the pressure and momentum changes accompanying the growth and collapse of a layer of foam at the top of the magma column. Assuming a simple lumped parameter representation of the shallow magmatic system, the observed pressure and volume variations can be modeled with the following attributes: foam thickness (10 - 50 m), foam cell diameter (0.04 - 0.10 m), and gas-injection velocity (0.01 - 0.06 m s-1). Based on the change in the period of very-long-period oscillations accompanying the onset of the gas-piston signal and tilt evidence, the height of

  1. An Adjoint Sensitivity Method Applied to Time Reverse Imaging of Tsunami Source for the 2009 Samoa Earthquake (United States)

    Hossen, M. Jakir; Gusman, Aditya; Satake, Kenji; Cummins, Phil R.


    We have previously developed a tsunami source inversion method based on "Time Reverse Imaging" and demonstrated that it is computationally very efficient and has the ability to reproduce the tsunami source model with good accuracy using tsunami data of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake tsunami. In this paper, we implemented this approach in the 2009 Samoa earthquake tsunami triggered by a doublet earthquake consisting of both normal and thrust faulting. Our result showed that the method is quite capable of recovering the source model associated with normal and thrust faulting. We found that the inversion result is highly sensitive to some stations that must be removed from the inversion. We applied an adjoint sensitivity method to find the optimal set of stations in order to estimate a realistic source model. We found that the inversion result is improved significantly once the optimal set of stations is used. In addition, from the reconstructed source model we estimated the slip distribution of the fault from which we successfully determined the dipping orientation of the fault plane for the normal fault earthquake. Our result suggests that the fault plane dip toward the northeast.

  2. Auditory time-interval perception as causal inference on sound sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ken-ichi eSawai


    Full Text Available Perception of a temporal pattern in a sub-second time scale is fundamental to conversation, music perception, and other kinds of sound communication. However, its mechanism is not fully understood. A simple example is hearing three successive sounds with short time intervals. The following misperception of the latter interval is known: underestimation of the latter interval when the former is a little shorter or much longer than the latter, and overestimation of the latter when the former is a little longer or much shorter than the latter. Although this misperception of auditory time intervals for simple stimuli might be a cue to understanding the mechanism of time-interval perception, there exist no model that comprehensively explains it. Considering a previous experiment demonstrating that illusory perception does not occur for stimulus sounds with different frequencies, it might be plausible to think that the underlying mechanism of time-interval perception involves a causal inference on sound sources: herein, different frequencies provide cues for different causes. We construct a Bayesian observer model of this time-interval perception. We introduce a probabilistic variable representing the causality of sounds in the model. As prior knowledge, the observer assumes that a single sound source produces periodic and short time intervals, which is consistent with several previous works. We conducted numerical simulations and confirmed that our model can reproduce the misperception of auditory time intervals. A similar phenomenon has also been reported in visual and tactile modalities, though the time ranges for these are wider. This suggests the existence of a common mechanism for temporal pattern perception over modalities. This is because these different properties can be interpreted as a difference in time resolutions, given that the time resolutions for vision and tactile are lower than those for audition.

  3. The Mw 5.8 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake of August 2011 and aftershock sequence: constraints on earthquake source parameters and fault geometry (United States)

    McNamara, Daniel E.; Benz, H.M.; Herrmann, Robert B.; Bergman, Eric A.; Earle, Paul; Meltzer, Anne; Withers, Mitch; Chapman, Martin


    The Mw 5.8 earthquake of 23 August 2011 (17:51:04 UTC) (moment, M0 5.7×1017  N·m) occurred near Mineral, Virginia, within the central Virginia seismic zone and was felt by more people than any other earthquake in United States history. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) received 148,638 felt reports from 31 states and 4 Canadian provinces. The USGS PAGER system estimates as many as 120,000 people were exposed to shaking intensity levels of IV and greater, with approximately 10,000 exposed to shaking as high as intensity VIII. Both regional and teleseismic moment tensor solutions characterize the earthquake as a northeast‐striking reverse fault that nucleated at a depth of approximately 7±2  km. The distribution of reported macroseismic intensities is roughly ten times the area of a similarly sized earthquake in the western United States (Horton and Williams, 2012). Near‐source and far‐field damage reports, which extend as far away as Washington, D.C., (135 km away) and Baltimore, Maryland, (200 km away) are consistent with an earthquake of this size and depth in the eastern United States (EUS). Within the first few days following the earthquake, several government and academic institutions installed 36 portable seismograph stations in the epicentral region, making this among the best‐recorded aftershock sequences in the EUS. Based on modeling of these data, we provide a detailed description of the source parameters of the mainshock and analysis of the subsequent aftershock sequence for defining the fault geometry, area of rupture, and observations of the aftershock sequence magnitude–frequency and temporal distribution. The observed slope of the magnitude–frequency curve or b‐value for the aftershock sequence is consistent with previous EUS studies (b=0.75), suggesting that most of the accumulated strain was released by the mainshock. The aftershocks define a rupture that extends between approximately 2–8 km in depth and 8–10 km along

  4. Impact of earthquake source complexity and land elevation data resolution on tsunami hazard assessment and fatality estimation (United States)

    Muhammad, Ario; Goda, Katsuichiro


    This study investigates the impact of model complexity in source characterization and digital elevation model (DEM) resolution on the accuracy of tsunami hazard assessment and fatality estimation through a case study in Padang, Indonesia. Two types of earthquake source models, i.e. complex and uniform slip models, are adopted by considering three resolutions of DEMs, i.e. 150 m, 50 m, and 10 m. For each of the three grid resolutions, 300 complex source models are generated using new statistical prediction models of earthquake source parameters developed from extensive finite-fault models of past subduction earthquakes, whilst 100 uniform slip models are constructed with variable fault geometry without slip heterogeneity. The results highlight that significant changes to tsunami hazard and fatality estimates are observed with regard to earthquake source complexity and grid resolution. Coarse resolution (i.e. 150 m) leads to inaccurate tsunami hazard prediction and fatality estimation, whilst 50-m and 10-m resolutions produce similar results. However, velocity and momentum flux are sensitive to the grid resolution and hence, at least 10-m grid resolution needs to be implemented when considering flow-based parameters for tsunami hazard and risk assessments. In addition, the results indicate that the tsunami hazard parameters and fatality number are more sensitive to the complexity of earthquake source characterization than the grid resolution. Thus, the uniform models are not recommended for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessments. Finally, the findings confirm that uncertainties of tsunami hazard level and fatality in terms of depth, velocity and momentum flux can be captured and visualized through the complex source modeling approach. From tsunami risk management perspectives, this indeed creates big data, which are useful for making effective and robust decisions.

  5. Two-dimensional Co-Seismic Surface Displacements Field of the Chi-Chi Earthquake Inferred from SAR Image Matching. (United States)

    Hu, Jun; Li, Zhi-Wei; Ding, Xiao-Li; Zhu, Jian-Jun


    The M w =7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan occurred in 1999 over the Chelungpu fault and caused a great surface rupture and severe damage. Differential Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (DInSAR) has been applied previously to study the co-seismic ground displacements. There have however been significant limitations in the studies. First, only one-dimensional displacements along the Line-of-Sight (LOS) direction have been measured. The large horizontal displacements along the Chelungpu fault are largely missing from the measurements as the fault is nearly perpendicular to the LOS direction. Second, due to severe signal decorrelation on the hangling wall of the fault, the displacements in that area are un-measurable by differential InSAR method. We estimate the co-seismic displacements in both the azimuth and range directions with the method of SAR amplitude image matching. GPS observations at the 10 GPS stations are used to correct for the orbital ramp in the amplitude matching and to create the two-dimensional (2D) co-seismic surface displacements field using the descending ERS-2 SAR image pair. The results show that the co-seismic displacements range from about -2.0 m to 0.7 m in the azimuth direction (with the positive direction pointing to the flight direction), with the footwall side of the fault moving mainly southwards and the hanging wall side northwards. The displacements in the LOS direction range from about -0.5 m to 1.0 m, with the largest displacement occuring in the northeastern part of the hanging wall (the positive direction points to the satellite from ground). Comparing the results from amplitude matching with those from DInSAR, we can see that while only a very small fraction of the LOS displacement has been recovered by the DInSAR mehtod, the azimuth displacements cannot be well detected with the DInSAR measurements as they are almost perpendicular to the LOS. Therefore, the amplitude matching method is obviously more advantageous than the

  6. Preliminary analysis on the tectonic stress level in the source region of Tangshan earthquake (United States)

    Jian-Tao, Zhao; Cui, Xiao-Feng; Xie, Fu-Ren


    The abundant data of focal mechanism solutions in Tangshan region, China, are inverted for the tectonic stress field. Combined with tectonophysical consideration, the magnitude of the three principal stresses, as well as their vertical variation under the average crustal rock property, in the source region of the 1976 Tangshan earthquake is estimated. The relationship between crustal stress and friction μ c, pore pressure P 0 and stress shape factor Φ is studied. The paper draws the conclusion that the vertical increasing rate of the maximum principal stress σ is directly proportional to friction, and inversely to pore pressure P 0 and stress shape factor Φ; while the vertical increasing rate of the minimum principal tress σ is directly proportional to pore pressure P 0, inversely to friction μ c and stress shape factor Φ. This study is a try to invert the data of focal mechanism solutions for the complete stress tensor.

  7. Source Mechanisms of Recent Earthquakes occurred in the Fethiye-Rhodes Basin and Anaximander Seamounts (SW Turkey) (United States)

    Yolsal-Çevikbilen, Seda; Taymaz, Tuncay


    Understanding the active tectonics of southern Turkey involves integrating earthquake source parameters with the regional tectonics. In this respect, seismological studies have played important roles in deciphering tectonic deformations and existing stress accumulations in the region. This study is concerned with the source mechanism parameters and spatio-temporal finite-fault slip distributions of recent earthquakes occurred along the Pliny-Strabo Trench (PST), which constitutes the eastern part of the Hellenic subduction zone in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea Region, and along the Fethiye-Burdur Fault Zone (SW Turkey). The study area is located at the junction of the Hellenic and Cyprus arcs along which the African plate plunges northwards beneath the Aegean Sea and the Anatolian block. Bathymetry and topography including large-scale tectonic structures such as the Rhodes Basin, Anaximander Seamounts, the Florence Rise, the Isparta Angle, the Taurus Mountains, and Kyrenia Range also reflect the tectonic complexities in the region. In this study, we performed point-source inversions by using teleseismic long-period P- and SH- and broad-band P-waveforms recorded by the Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks (FDSN) and the Global Digital Seismograph Network (GDSN) stations. We obtained source mechanism parameters and finite-fault slip distributions of recent Fethiye-Rhodes earthquakes (Mw ≥ 5.0) by comparing the shapes and amplitudes of long period P- and SH-waveforms, recorded in the distance range of 30 - 90 degrees, with synthetic waveforms. We further obtained rupture histories of the earthquakes to determine the fault area (fault length and width), maximum displacement, rupture duration and stress drop. Inversion results exhibit that recent earthquakes show left-lateral strike-slip faulting mechanisms with relatively deeper focal depths (h > 40 km) consistent with tectonic characteristics of the region, for example, the June 10, 2012 Fethiye earthquake (Mw

  8. Anisotropic Horizontal Thermal Contraction of Young Oceanic Lithosphere Inferred From Stress Release Due To Oceanic Intraplate Earthquakes (United States)

    Sasajima, Ryohei; Ito, Takeo


    How freely the oceanic lithosphere contracts horizontally due to thermal contraction is important information, because it reflects the boundary condition of the oceanic lithosphere, which includes information regarding the magnitude of driving/resisting forces of plate tectonics. We investigated the horizontal thermal contraction of young oceanic lithosphere using an analysis of the intraplate stress release due to oceanic intraplate earthquakes (OCEQs) and numerical simulations. The stress release due to OCEQs in young oceanic lithosphere (5-15 Ma) shows significant differences between the spreading directional component and the ridge-parallel component. The extensional stress release of the ridge-parallel component is 6 times as large as that of the spreading directional component, while the compressional stress release of the ridge-parallel component is one seventh that of the spreading directional component. We conducted a numerical simulation of the thermal stress evolution of the oceanic lithosphere to investigate how the difference in the horizontal contraction rates between the spreading direction and the ridge-parallel direction can explain the observed anisotropic stress release. The result indicates that young oceanic lithosphere (5-15 Ma) barely contracts in the ridge-parallel direction (only 0-30% of the spreading directional contraction rate), while it contracts freely in the spreading direction due to the weakness of the oceanic ridge strength and the low-viscosity asthenosphere. From the results, we constrained the magnitude of the basal traction working on the bottom of the oceanic lithosphere to be smaller than 0.44 MPa.

  9. Velocity ratio variations in the source region of earthquake swarms in NW Bohemia obtained from arrival time double-differences

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dahm, T.; Fischer, Tomáš


    Roč. 196, č. 2 (2014), s. 957-970 ISSN 0956-540X Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : tomography * earthquake source observations * volcano seismology Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 2.724, year: 2013

  10. Marine and land active-source seismic investigation of geothermal potential, tectonic structure, and earthquake hazards in Pyramid Lake, Nevada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eisses, A.; Kell, A.; Kent, G. [UNR; Driscoll, N. [UCSD; Karlin, R.; Baskin, R. [USGS; Louie, J. [UNR; Pullammanappallil, S. [Optim


    Amy Eisses, Annie M. Kell, Graham Kent, Neal W. Driscoll, Robert E. Karlin, Robert L. Baskin, John N. Louie, Kenneth D. Smith, Sathish Pullammanappallil, 2011, Marine and land active-source seismic investigation of geothermal potential, tectonic structure, and earthquake hazards in Pyramid Lake, Nevada: presented at American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, Dec. 5-9, abstract NS14A-08.

  11. Source Parameter Inversion for Recent Great Earthquakes from a Decade-long Observation of Global Gravity Fields (United States)

    Han, Shin-Chan; Riva, Ricccardo; Sauber, Jeanne; Okal, Emile


    We quantify gravity changes after great earthquakes present within the 10 year long time series of monthly Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity fields. Using spherical harmonic normal-mode formulation, the respective source parameters of moment tensor and double-couple were estimated. For the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake, the gravity data indicate a composite moment of 1.2x10(exp 23)Nm with a dip of 10deg, in agreement with the estimate obtained at ultralong seismic periods. For the 2010 Maule earthquake, the GRACE solutions range from 2.0 to 2.7x10(exp 22)Nm for dips of 12deg-24deg and centroid depths within the lower crust. For the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, the estimated scalar moments range from 4.1 to 6.1x10(exp 22)Nm, with dips of 9deg-19deg and centroid depths within the lower crust. For the 2012 Indian Ocean strike-slip earthquakes, the gravity data delineate a composite moment of 1.9x10(exp 22)Nm regardless of the centroid depth, comparing favorably with the total moment of the main ruptures and aftershocks. The smallest event we successfully analyzed with GRACE was the 2007 Bengkulu earthquake with M(sub 0) approx. 5.0x10(exp 21)Nm. We found that the gravity data constrain the focal mechanism with the centroid only within the upper and lower crustal layers for thrust events. Deeper sources (i.e., in the upper mantle) could not reproduce the gravity observation as the larger rigidity and bulk modulus at mantle depths inhibit the interior from changing its volume, thus reducing the negative gravity component. Focal mechanisms and seismic moments obtained in this study represent the behavior of the sources on temporal and spatial scales exceeding the seismic and geodetic spectrum.

  12. The source model and recurrence interval of Genroku-type Kanto earthquakes estimated from paleo-shoreline data (United States)

    Sato, Toshinori; Higuchi, Harutaka; Miyauchi, Takahiro; Endo, Kaori; Tsumura, Noriko; Ito, Tanio; Noda, Akemi; Matsu'ura, Mitsuhiro


    In the southern Kanto region of Japan, where the Philippine Sea plate is descending at the Sagami trough, two different types of large interplate earthquakes have occurred repeatedly. The 1923 (Taisho) and 1703 (Genroku) Kanto earthquakes characterize the first and second types, respectively. A reliable source model has been obtained for the 1923 event from seismological and geodetical data, but not for the 1703 event because we have only historical records and paleo-shoreline data about it. We developed an inversion method to estimate fault slip distribution of interplate repeating earthquakes from paleo-shoreline data on the idea of crustal deformation cycles associated with subduction-zone earthquakes. By applying the inversion method to the present heights of the Genroku and Holocene marine terraces developed along the coasts of the southern Boso and Miura peninsulas, we estimated the fault slip distribution of the 1703 Genroku earthquake as follows. The source region extends along the Sagami trough from the Miura peninsula to the offing of the southern Boso peninsula, which covers the southern two thirds of the source region of the 1923 Kanto earthquake. The coseismic slip takes the maximum of 20 m at the southern tip of the Boso peninsula, and the moment magnitude (Mw) is calculated as 8.2. From the interseismic slip-deficit rates at the plate interface obtained by GPS data inversion, assuming that the total slip deficit is compensated by coseismic slip, we can roughly estimate the average recurrence interval as 350 years for large interplate events of any type and 1400 years for the Genroku-type events.

  13. Two-dimensional Co-Seismic Surface Displacements Field of the Chi-Chi Earthquake Inferred from SAR Image Matching

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian-Jun Zhu


    Full Text Available The Mw=7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan occurred in 1999 over the Chelungpu fault and caused a great surface rupture and severe damage. Differential Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (DInSAR has been applied previously to study the co-seismic ground displacements. There have however been significant limitations in the studies. First, only one-dimensional displacements along the Line-of-Sight (LOS direction have been measured. The large horizontal displacements along the Chelungpu fault are largely missing from the measurements as the fault is nearly perpendicular to the LOS direction. Second, due to severe signal decorrelation on the hangling wall of the fault, the displacements in that area are un-measurable by differential InSAR method. We estimate the co-seismic displacements in both the azimuth and range directions with the method of SAR amplitude image matching. GPS observations at the 10 GPS stations are used to correct for the orbital ramp in the amplitude matching and to create the two-dimensional (2D co-seismic surface displacements field using the descending ERS-2 SAR image pair. The results show that the co-seismic displacements range from about -2.0 m to 0.7 m in the azimuth direction (with the positive direction pointing to the flight direction, with the footwall side of the fault moving mainly southwards and the hanging wall side northwards. The displacements in the LOS direction range from about -0.5 m to 1.0 m, with the largest displacement occuring in the northeastern part of the hanging wall (the positive direction points to the satellite from ground. Comparing the results from amplitude matching with those from DInSAR, we can see that while only a very small fraction of the LOS displacement has been recovered by the DInSAR mehtod, the azimuth displacements cannot be well detected with the DInSAR measurements as they are almost perpendicular to the LOS. Therefore, the amplitude matching method is obviously more

  14. From velocity and attenuation tomography to rock physical modeling: Inferences on fluid-driven earthquake processes at the Irpinia fault system in southern Italy (United States)

    Amoroso, O.; Russo, G.; De Landro, G.; Zollo, A.; Garambois, S.; Mazzoli, S.; Parente, M.; Virieux, J.


    We retrieve 3-D attenuation images of the crustal volume embedding the fault system associated with the destructive Ms 6.9, 1980 Irpinia earthquake by tomographic inversion of t* measurements. A high QP anomaly is found to be correlated with the 1980 fault geometry, while the QS model shows regional-scale variations related to the NE edge of the uplifted pre-Tertiary limestone. An upscaling strategy is used to infer rock properties such as porosity, consolidation, type of fluid mixing, and relative saturation percentage at 8-10 km fault depth. We constrain the porosity and consolidation in the ranges 4-5% and 5-9, respectively, with the possible fluid mixes being both brine-CO2 and CH4-CO2. The consolidation parameter range indicates high pore pressures at the same depths. These results support the evidence for a fracture system, highly saturated in gases and a seismicity triggering mechanism at the fault zone, which is strongly controlled by fluid-induced pore pressure changes.

  15. Mantle fluids ascent in the regions of strong earthquake sources and large deep fault zones: geochemical evidences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kopnichev, Yu.F.; Sokolova, I.N.


    Data on variations of a ratio of the helium isotope content (parameter R= 3 He/ 4 He) near the sources of strong earthquakes and some large fault zones (in the regions of Tien Shan, Mongolia, California, Central Japan and Central Apennines) are being analyzed. It was shown that in many cases R values regularly diminish with the distance from epicenters and large regional faults. This testifies to the ascent of mantle fluids into the earth's crust after strong earthquakes and in some deep fault zones, which are characterized by superhigh permeability and their further migration in horizontal direction. (author)

  16. New Near-Source Tsunami Field Data for the April 1, 1946 Aleutian Earthquake, Alaska (United States)

    Plafker, G.; Synolakis, C. E.; Okal, E. A.


    The April 1, 1946 Aleutian earthquake (Ms 7.4; Mw 8.2) stands out among tsunamigenic events because it generated both very high run-up near the earthquake source region and a destructive trans-Pacific tsunami. For this puzzling event, maximum near-field run-up (42 m) is more than 6 times the computed average dip slip on the source fault (Johnson and Satake, 1997). Attempts to model the near-field tsunami have been hampered by an almost total absence of reliable data on wave run-up, direction, and arrival time because the ocean coast in the region was virtually uninhabited, the earthquake and tsunami occurred at night, and there were no nearby recording tide gauges. The lone exception is the Scotch Cap Coast Guard station on the southwestern end of Unimak Island where a reinforced concrete lighthouse and its crew of 5 Coast Guardsmen were obliterated by the tsunami. Survivors at the station, who were in a communications facility on the sea cliff above the lighthouse, report that the wave arrived shortly before low tide at 2:18 A.M., some 48 minutes after the main shock was felt. Previous surveys by Coast Guard personnel indicated a maximum wave run-up elevation of 30-35 m at the station above an unspecified datum. We obtained new data on tsunami distribution along south-facing coasts between Unimak Pass on the west and Sanak Island on the east by measuring the height of driftwood and beach materials that were deposited by the tsunami above the extreme storm tide level. Our data indicate that: 1. The highest measured run-up, which is at the Scotch Cap lighthouse, was 42 m above tide level or about 37 m above present storm tide elevation; 2. Run-up along the rugged coast from Scotch Cap for 12 km NW to Sennett Point is 12.6-18 m and for 30 km east of Scotch Cap to Cape Lutke it is 24-40.6 m; 3. Run-up along the broad lowlands bordering Unimak Bight is 10-15 m and inundation is locally more than 1,000 m; 5. Run-up diminishes to 8 m or less at the SE corner of Unimak

  17. Undead earthquakes (United States)

    Musson, R. M. W.

    This short communication deals with the problem of fake earthquakes that keep returning into circulation. The particular events discussed are some very early earthquakes supposed to have occurred in the U.K., which all originate from a single enigmatic 18th century source.

  18. Comparisons of Source Characteristics between Recent Inland Crustal Earthquake Sequences inside and outside of Niigata-Kobe Tectonic Zone, Japan (United States)

    Somei, K.; Asano, K.; Iwata, T.; Miyakoshi, K.


    After the 1995 Kobe earthquake, many M7-class inland earthquakes occurred in Japan. Some of those events (e.g., the 2004 Chuetsu earthquake) occurred in a tectonic zone which is characterized as a high strain rate zone by the GPS observation (Sagiya et al., 2000) or dense distribution of active faults. That belt-like zone along the coast in Japan Sea side of Tohoku and Chubu districts, and north of Kinki district, is called as the Niigata-Kobe tectonic zone (NKTZ, Sagiya et al, 2000). We investigate seismic scaling relationship for recent inland crustal earthquake sequences in Japan and compare source characteristics between events occurring inside and outside of NKTZ. We used S-wave coda part for estimating source spectra. Source spectral ratio is obtained by S-wave coda spectral ratio between the records of large and small events occurring close to each other from nation-wide strong motion network (K-NET and KiK-net) and broad-band seismic network (F-net) to remove propagation-path and site effects. We carefully examined the commonality of the decay of coda envelopes between event-pair records and modeled the observed spectral ratio by the source spectral ratio function with assuming omega-square source model for large and small events. We estimated the corner frequencies and seismic moment (ratio) from those modeled spectral ratio function. We determined Brune's stress drops of 356 events (Mw: 3.1-6.9) in ten earthquake sequences occurring in NKTZ and six sequences occurring outside of NKTZ. Most of source spectra obey omega-square source spectra. There is no obvious systematic difference between stress drops of events in NKTZ zone and others. We may conclude that the systematic tendency of seismic source scaling of the events occurred inside and outside of NKTZ does not exist and the average source scaling relationship can be effective for inland crustal earthquakes. Acknowledgements: Waveform data were provided from K-NET, KiK-net and F-net operated by

  19. Ambient noise as the new source for urban engineering seismology and earthquake engineering: a case study from Beijing metropolitan area (United States)

    Liu, Lanbo; Chen, Qi-fu; Wang, Weijun; Rohrbach, Eric


    In highly populated urban centers, traditional seismic survey sources can no longer be properly applied due to restrictions in modern civilian life styles. The ambient vibration noise, including both microseisms and microtremor, though are generally weak but available anywhere and anytime, can be an ideal supplementary source for conducting seismic surveys for engineering seismology and earthquake engineering. This is fundamentally supported by advanced digital signal processing techniques for effectively extracting the useful information out from the noise. Thus, it can be essentially regarded as a passive seismic method. In this paper we first make a brief survey of the ambient vibration noise, followed by a quick summary of digital signal processing for passive seismic surveys. Then the applications of ambient noise in engineering seismology and earthquake engineering for urban settings are illustrated with examples from Beijing metropolitan area. For engineering seismology the example is the assessment of site effect in a large area via microtremor observations. For earthquake engineering the example is for structural characterization of a typical reinforced concrete high-rise building using background vibration noise. By showing these examples we argue that the ambient noise can be treated as a new source that is economical, practical, and particularly valuable to engineering seismology and earthquake engineering projects for seismic hazard mitigation in urban areas.

  20. Seismic swarm associated with the 2008 eruption of Kasatochi Volcano, Alaska: earthquake locations and source parameters (United States)

    Ruppert, Natalia G.; Prejean, Stephanie G.; Hansen, Roger A.


    An energetic seismic swarm accompanied an eruption of Kasatochi Volcano in the central Aleutian volcanic arc in August of 2008. In retrospect, the first earthquakes in the swarm were detected about 1 month prior to the eruption onset. Activity in the swarm quickly intensified less than 48 h prior to the first large explosion and subsequently subsided with decline of eruptive activity. The largest earthquake measured as moment magnitude 5.8, and a dozen additional earthquakes were larger than magnitude 4. The swarm exhibited both tectonic and volcanic characteristics. Its shear failure earthquake features were b value = 0.9, most earthquakes with impulsive P and S arrivals and higher-frequency content, and earthquake faulting parameters consistent with regional tectonic stresses. Its volcanic or fluid-influenced seismicity features were volcanic tremor, large CLVD components in moment tensor solutions, and increasing magnitudes with time. Earthquake location tests suggest that the earthquakes occurred in a distributed volume elongated in the NS direction either directly under the volcano or within 5-10 km south of it. Following the MW 5.8 event, earthquakes occurred in a new crustal volume slightly east and north of the previous earthquakes. The central Aleutian Arc is a tectonically active region with seismicity occurring in the crusts of the Pacific and North American plates in addition to interplate events. We postulate that the Kasatochi seismic swarm was a manifestation of the complex interaction of tectonic and magmatic processes in the Earth's crust. Although magmatic intrusion triggered the earthquakes in the swarm, the earthquakes failed in context of the regional stress field.

  1. Clues to the identification of a seismogenic source from environmental effects: the case of the 1905 Calabria (Southern Italy earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Tertulliani


    Full Text Available The 8 September 1905 Calabria (Southern Italy earthquake belongs to a peculiar family of highly destructive (I0=XI seismic events, occurred at the dawning of the instrumental seismology, for which the location, geometry and size of the causative source are still substantially unconstrained. During the century elapsed since the earthquake, previous Authors identified three different epicenters that are more than 50 km apart and proposed magnitudes ranging from M≤6.2 to M=7.9. Even larger uncertainties were found when the geometry of the earthquake source was estimated. In this study, we constrain the magnitude, location and kinematics of the 1905 earthquake through the analysis of the remarkable environmental effects produced by the event (117 reviewed observations at 73 different localities throughout Calabria. The data used in our analysis include ground effects (landslides, rock falls and lateral spreads and hydrological changes (streamflow variations, liquefaction, rise of water temperature and turbidity. To better define the magnitude of the event we use a number of empirical relations between seismic source parameters and distribution of ground effects and hydrological changes. In order to provide constraints to the location of the event and to the geometry of the source, we reproduce the coseismic static strain associated with different possible 1905 causative faults and compare its pattern to the documented streamflow changes. From the analysis of the seismically-induced environmental changes we find that: 1 the 1905 earthquake had a minimum magnitude M=6.7; 2 the event occurred in an offshore area west of the epicenters proposed by the historical seismic Catalogs; 3 it most likely occurred along a 100° N oriented normal fault with a left-lateral component, consistently with the seismotectonic setting of the area.

  2. Source parameters of the Izmit-Bolu 1999 (Turkey earthquake sequences from teleseismic data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Louvari


    Full Text Available Body waveform modelling and far-field displacement spectral analyses were used to study the source parameters of five of the largest earthquakes of the (Izmit-Bolu Turkey 1999 sequence. The derived source parameters for the August 17, 1999 M W 7.4 event are: strike = 267°, dip = 85°, rake = – 175°, h = 10 km, M 0 = 1.31×10 20 Nm. The length of the fault was found equal to 76 km, the average displacement 6.4 m and the static stress drop 90 bars. The Bolu November 12, 1999 M W 7.1 event has a focal mechanism with strike = 262°, dip = 53°, rake = –177°, h = 12 km, M 0 = 4.71×10 19 Nm, fault length of 56 km, average displacement 2.1 m and average static stress drop 29 bars. The focal mechanisms of three other aftershocks of the Izmit sequence indicate right lateral strike slip motion, as well. The slip vectors of the events studied are in accordance with the GPS velocity vectors, have a mean azimuth of 269° and reveal the extrusion of the Anatolian plate towards the Aegean.

  3. Changes of Groundwater Quality in the Sorrounding Pollution Sources Due to Earthquake Dissaster

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sudarmadji Sudarmadji


    Full Text Available Groundwater is the main domestic water supply of the population of the Yogyakarta Special Region, both in the urban and as well as in the rural area due to its quantity and quality advantages. The rapid population growth has caused an increase of groundwater demand, consequently it is facing some problems to the sustainability of groundwater supply. Lowering of groundwater level has been observed in some places, as well as the degradation of groundwater quality. Earthquake which stroke Yogyakarta on 27 May 2006, damaged buildings and other infrastructures in the area, including roads and bridges. It might also damage the underground structures such as septic tanks, and pipes underneath the earth surface. It might cause cracking of the geologic structures. Furthermore, the damage of underneath infrastructures might create groundwater quality changes in the area. Some complains of local community on lowering and increasing groundwater level and groundwater quality changes were noted. Field observation and investigation were conducted, including collection of groundwater samples close to (the pollution sources. Laboratory analyses indicated that some parameters increased to exceed the drinking water quality standards. The high content of Coli form bacteria possibly was caused by contamination of nearby septic tanks or other pollution sources to the observed groundwater in the dug well.

  4. Comparison of Urban Human Movements Inferring from Multi-Source Spatial-Temporal Data (United States)

    Cao, Rui; Tu, Wei; Cao, Jinzhou; Li, Qingquan


    The quantification of human movements is very hard because of the sparsity of traditional data and the labour intensive of the data collecting process. Recently, much spatial-temporal data give us an opportunity to observe human movement. This research investigates the relationship of city-wide human movements inferring from two types of spatial-temporal data at traffic analysis zone (TAZ) level. The first type of human movement is inferred from long-time smart card transaction data recording the boarding actions. The second type of human movement is extracted from citywide time sequenced mobile phone data with 30 minutes interval. Travel volume, travel distance and travel time are used to measure aggregated human movements in the city. To further examine the relationship between the two types of inferred movements, the linear correlation analysis is conducted on the hourly travel volume. The obtained results show that human movements inferred from smart card data and mobile phone data have a correlation of 0.635. However, there are still some non-ignorable differences in some special areas. This research not only reveals the citywide spatial-temporal human dynamic but also benefits the understanding of the reliability of the inference of human movements with big spatial-temporal data.

  5. Relationship of the 2004 Mid-Niigata prefecture earthquake with geological structure. Evaluation of earthquake source fault in active folding zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aoyagi, Yasuhira; Abe, Shintaro


    We compile the important points to evaluate earthquake source fault in active folding zone through a temporary aftershock observation of the 2004 Mid-Niigata Prefecture earthquake. The aftershock distribution shows spindle shape whose middle part is wide and both ends are narrow in NNE-SSW trending. The range of seismic activity corresponds well to the distribution of fold axes in this area, whose middle part is anticlinorium (some anticlines) and both ends are single anticline. In the middle part, the west dipping aftershock plane including the mainshock (M6.8) is located under the Higashiyama anticline. Another west dipping aftershock plane including the largest aftershock (M6.5) is located under the Tamugiyama and Komatsugura anticlines, and the east margin of the aftershock distribution corresponds well with Suwa-toge flexure. Therefore the present fold structure should have been formed by an accumulation of the same faults movement. In other words, it is important to refer the fold axes distribution pattern, especially with flexure, for the evaluation of earthquake source fault. In addition, we performed FEM analyses to investigate the relation of fold structure to the thickness of the sedimentary layer and the dip angle of the fault. Reverse fault movement forms asymmetric fold above the fault, which steeper slope is formed just above the upper end of the fault. As the sedimentary layer became thicker, anticline axis moved to hanging wall side in the fold structure. As the dip angle became smaller, the wavelength of the fold became longer and the fold structure grew highly asymmetric. Thus the shape of the fold structure is useful as an index to estimate the blind thrust below it. (author)

  6. Earthquake Source Simulations: A Coupled Numerical Method and Large Scale Simulations (United States)

    Ely, G. P.; Xin, Q.; Faerman, M.; Day, S.; Minster, B.; Kremenek, G.; Moore, R.


    We investigate a scheme for interfacing Finite-Difference (FD) and Finite-Element (FE) models in order to simulate dynamic earthquake rupture. The more powerful but slower FE method allows for (1) unusual geometries (e.g. dipping and curved faults), (2) nonlinear physics, and (3) finite displacements. These capabilities are computationally expensive and limit the useful size of the problem that can be solved. Large efficiencies are gained by employing FE only where necessary in the near source region and coupling this with an efficient FD solution for the surrounding medium. Coupling is achieved through setting up and an overlapping buffer zone between the domains modeled by the two methods. The buffer zone is handled numerically as a set of mutual offset boundary conditions. This scheme eliminates the effect of the artificial boundaries at the interface and allows energy to propagate in both directions across the boundary. In general it is necessary to interpolate variables between the meshes and time discretizations used for each model, and this can create artifacts that must be controlled. A modular approach has been used in which either of the two component codes can be substituted with another code. We have successfully demonstrated coupling for a simulation between a second-order FD rupture dynamics code and fourth-order staggered-grid FD code. To be useful earthquake source models must capture a large range of length and time scales, which is very computationally demanding. This requires that (for current computer technology) codes must utilize parallel processing. Additionally, if larges quantities of output data are to be saved, a high performance data management system is desirable. We show results from a large scale rupture dynamics simulation designed to test these capabilities. We use second-order FD with dimensions of 400 x 800 x 800 nodes, run for 3000 time steps. Data were saved for the entire volume for three components of velocity at every time

  7. Time-lapse imaging of fault properties at seismogenic depth using repeating earthquakes, active sources and seismic ambient noise (United States)

    Cheng, Xin


    The time-varying stress field of fault systems at seismogenic depths plays the mort important role in controlling the sequencing and nucleation of seismic events. Using seismic observations from repeating earthquakes, controlled active sources and seismic ambient noise, five studies at four different fault systems across North America, Central Japan, North and mid-West China are presented to describe our efforts to measure such time dependent structural properties. Repeating and similar earthquakes are hunted and analyzed to study the post-seismic fault relaxation at the aftershock zone of the 1984 M 6.8 western Nagano and the 1976 M 7.8 Tangshan earthquakes. The lack of observed repeating earthquakes at western Nagano is attributed to the absence of a well developed weak fault zone, suggesting that the fault damage zone has been almost completely healed. In contrast, the high percentage of similar and repeating events found at Tangshan suggest the existence of mature fault zones characterized by stable creep under steady tectonic loading. At the Parkfield region of the San Andreas Fault, repeating earthquake clusters and chemical explosions are used to construct a scatterer migration image based on the observation of systematic temporal variations in the seismic waveforms across the occurrence time of the 2004 M 6 Parkfield earthquake. Coseismic fluid charge or discharge in fractures caused by the Parkfield earthquake is used to explain the observed seismic scattering properties change at depth. In the same region, a controlled source cross-well experiment conducted at SAFOD pilot and main holes documents two large excursions in the travel time required for a shear wave to travel through the rock along a fixed pathway shortly before two rupture events, suggesting that they may be related to pre-rupture stress induced changes in crack properties. At central China, a tomographic inversion based on the theory of seismic ambient noise and coda wave interferometry

  8. Postseismic relaxation process and lithospheric rheology inferred from eight years of postseismic deformation after the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake (United States)

    Zhao, B.; Burgmann, R.; Rui, X.; Wang, D.; Yu, J.; He, K.


    Current inferences of postseismic deformation mechanisms and lithospheric rheology in the eastern Tibetan Plateau strongly depend on spatial and temporal observations of postseismic transients following the 2008 Mw=7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. We processed regional continuously operating and survey-mode GPS data from the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China and Sichuan Continuous Operation Reference System. These data cover a broad region and time intervals of up to eight years. The determined amplitude of postseismic displacements show clear contrast between the Sichuan Basin and eastern Tibet. In addition to significant amounts of deformation in the region between the Longmen Shan and Longriba fault, reliable deformation transients are also visible in the far field, such as regions to the west of the Longriba fault and along the left-lateral Xianshuihe fault. In contrast, no more than 10 mm of postseismic transients are observed in the Sichuan Basin. Guided by previous studies, we conducted multiple-mechanism models of afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation. We first explored a series of forward viscoelastic relaxation models using a heterogeneous rheological earth structure, and then inverted corresponding afterslip distributions on the shallowly dipping detachment to explain the remaining residuals. Our preliminary results indicate the viscoelastic relaxation in the lower crust and upper mantle dominantly contributed to the mid- and far-field observations, whereas afterslip below the coseismic asperities and on small patches near the surface can explain the near-field measurements. Time-dependent slip inversions illustrate that afterslip decays more rapidly on the shallow portions of the fault interface than on the shallowly dipping detachment. Relatively long-lived right-lateral afterslip is revealed in the north segment of the Beichuan fault, suggesting variations of frictional properties along strike of the fault zone. Our results also support previous

  9. Bayesian exploration of recent Chilean earthquakes (United States)

    Duputel, Zacharie; Jiang, Junle; Jolivet, Romain; Simons, Mark; Rivera, Luis; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Liang, Cunren; Agram, Piyush; Owen, Susan; Ortega, Francisco; Minson, Sarah


    The South-American subduction zone is an exceptional natural laboratory for investigating the behavior of large faults over the earthquake cycle. It is also a playground to develop novel modeling techniques combining different datasets. Coastal Chile was impacted by two major earthquakes in the last two years: the 2015 M 8.3 Illapel earthquake in central Chile and the 2014 M 8.1 Iquique earthquake that ruptured the central portion of the 1877 seismic gap in northern Chile. To gain better understanding of the distribution of co-seismic slip for those two earthquakes, we derive joint kinematic finite fault models using a combination of static GPS offsets, radar interferograms, tsunami measurements, high-rate GPS waveforms and strong motion data. Our modeling approach follows a Bayesian formulation devoid of a priori smoothing thereby allowing us to maximize spatial resolution of the inferred family of models. The adopted approach also attempts to account for major sources of uncertainty in the Green's functions. The results reveal different rupture behaviors for the 2014 Iquique and 2015 Illapel earthquakes. The 2014 Iquique earthquake involved a sharp slip zone and did not rupture to the trench. The 2015 Illapel earthquake nucleated close to the coast and propagated toward the trench with significant slip apparently reaching the trench or at least very close to the trench. At the inherent resolution of our models, we also present the relationship of co-seismic models to the spatial distribution of foreshocks, aftershocks and fault coupling models.

  10. Waveform complexity caused by near trench structure and its impact on earthquake source study: application to the 2015 Illapel earthquake sequence (United States)

    Qian, Y.; Wei, S.; Wu, W.; Ni, S.


    Among various types of 3D heterogeneity in the Earth, trench might be the most complex systems, which includes rapidly varying bathymetry and usually thick sediment below water layer. These structure complexities can cause substantial waveform complexities on seismograms, but their corresponding impact on the earthquake source studies has not yet been well understood. Here we explore those effects via studies of two moderate aftershocks (one near the coast while the other close to the Peru-Chile trench axis) in the 2015 Illapel earthquake sequence. The horizontal locations and depths of these two events are poorly constrained and the reported results of various agencies display substantial variations. Thus, we first relocated the epicenters using the P-wave first arrivals and determined other parameters by waveform fitting. In a jackknifing way, we found that the trench event has large differences between regional and teleseismic solutions, in particular for depth, while the coastal event shows consistent results. The teleseismic P/Pdiff waves between these two events also display distinctly different features. More specifically, the trench event has more complex P/Pdiff waves and stronger coda waves, in terms of amplitude and duration (longer than 100s). The coda waves are coherent across stations at different distances and azimuths, indicating a more likely origin of scattering waves due to 3D heterogeneity near trench. To quantitatively model those 3D effects, we adopted a hybrid waveform simulation approach that computes the 3D wavefield in the source region by the Spectral Element Method (SEM) and then propagates the wavefield to teleseismic and shadow zone distances through the Direct Solution Method (DSM). We incorporated the GEBCO bathymetry and water layer into the SEM simulations and assumed the IASP91 1D model for DSM computation. Comparing with the poor 1D synthetics fitting to the data, we do obtain dramatic improvement in 3D waveform fittings across a

  11. Reconstruction of far-field tsunami amplitude distributions from earthquake sources (United States)

    Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Thomas E.


    The probability distribution of far-field tsunami amplitudes is explained in relation to the distribution of seismic moment at subduction zones. Tsunami amplitude distributions at tide gauge stations follow a similar functional form, well described by a tapered Pareto distribution that is parameterized by a power-law exponent and a corner amplitude. Distribution parameters are first established for eight tide gauge stations in the Pacific, using maximum likelihood estimation. A procedure is then developed to reconstruct the tsunami amplitude distribution that consists of four steps: (1) define the distribution of seismic moment at subduction zones; (2) establish a source-station scaling relation from regression analysis; (3) transform the seismic moment distribution to a tsunami amplitude distribution for each subduction zone; and (4) mix the transformed distribution for all subduction zones to an aggregate tsunami amplitude distribution specific to the tide gauge station. The tsunami amplitude distribution is adequately reconstructed for four tide gauge stations using globally constant seismic moment distribution parameters established in previous studies. In comparisons to empirical tsunami amplitude distributions from maximum likelihood estimation, the reconstructed distributions consistently exhibit higher corner amplitude values, implying that in most cases, the empirical catalogs are too short to include the largest amplitudes. Because the reconstructed distribution is based on a catalog of earthquakes that is much larger than the tsunami catalog, it is less susceptible to the effects of record-breaking events and more indicative of the actual distribution of tsunami amplitudes.

  12. A dynamical study of frictional effect on scaling of earthquake source displacement spectra

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeen-Hwa Wang


    Full Text Available The scaling of earthquake source displacement spectra is analytically studied based on the continuous form of one-dimensional dynamical spring-slider model in the presence of either linearly slip-weakening friction or linearly velocity-weakening friction. The main parameters of the model are the natural angular frequency, wo, and the (dimensionless decreasing rate, D, of friction with slip (or the characteristic displacement for slip-weakening friction as well as the (dimensionless decreasing rate, u, of friction with velocity (or the characteristic velocity for velocity-weakening friction. The analytic solution includes the complementary and particular parts. The former shows the travelling wave and the latter denotes vibrations at a site. The complementary solution exhibits w-1 scaling in the whole range of w for both friction laws. For the particular solution, slip-weakening friction results in spectral amplitudes only at three values of w. For velocity-weakening friction with u>0.5, the log-log plot of spectral amplitude versus w exhibits almost w0 scaling when w is lower than the corner angular frequency, wc, which is independent on u and increases with wo. When w>wc, the spectral amplitude monotonically decreases with w following a line with a slope value of -1, which is the scaling exponent.

  13. The January 2014 Northern Cuba Earthquake Sequence - Unusual Location and Unexpected Source Mechanism Variability (United States)

    Braunmiller, J.; Thompson, G.; McNutt, S. R.


    On 9 January 2014, a magnitude Mw=5.1 earthquake occurred along the Bahamas-Cuba suture at the northern coast of Cuba revealing a surprising seismic hazard source for both Cuba and southern Florida where it was widely felt. Due to its location, the event and its aftershocks (M>3.5) were recorded only at far distances (300+ km) resulting in high-detection thresholds, low location accuracy, and limited source parameter resolution. We use three-component regional seismic data to study the sequence. High-pass filtered seismograms at the closest site in southern Florida are similar in character suggesting a relatively tight event cluster and revealing additional, smaller aftershocks not included in the ANSS or ISC catalogs. Aligning on the P arrival and low-pass filtering (T>10 s) uncovers a surprise polarity flip of the large amplitude surface waves on vertical seismograms for some aftershocks relative to the main shock. We performed regional moment tensor inversions of the main shock and its largest aftershocks using complete three-component seismograms from stations distributed throughout the region to confirm the mechanism changes. Consistent with the GCMT solution, we find an E-W trending normal faulting mechanism for the main event and for one immediate aftershock. Two aftershocks indicate E-W trending reverse faulting with essentially flipped P- and T-axes relative to the normal faulting events (and the same B-axes). Within uncertainties, depths of the two event families are indistinguishable and indicate shallow faulting (Cuba posing a potential hazard to Florida and the Bahamas.

  14. Dynamic Source Inversion of a M6.5 Intraslab Earthquake in Mexico: Application of a New Parallel Genetic Algorithm (United States)

    Díaz-Mojica, J. J.; Cruz-Atienza, V. M.; Madariaga, R.; Singh, S. K.; Iglesias, A.


    We introduce a novel approach for imaging the earthquakes dynamics from ground motion records based on a parallel genetic algorithm (GA). The method follows the elliptical dynamic-rupture-patch approach introduced by Di Carli et al. (2010) and has been carefully verified through different numerical tests (Díaz-Mojica et al., 2012). Apart from the five model parameters defining the patch geometry, our dynamic source description has four more parameters: the stress drop inside the nucleation and the elliptical patches; and two friction parameters, the slip weakening distance and the change of the friction coefficient. These parameters are constant within the rupture surface. The forward dynamic source problem, involved in the GA inverse method, uses a highly accurate computational solver for the problem, namely the staggered-grid split-node. The synthetic inversion presented here shows that the source model parameterization is suitable for the GA, and that short-scale source dynamic features are well resolved in spite of low-pass filtering of the data for periods comparable to the source duration. Since there is always uncertainty in the propagation medium as well as in the source location and the focal mechanisms, we have introduced a statistical approach to generate a set of solution models so that the envelope of the corresponding synthetic waveforms explains as much as possible the observed data. We applied the method to the 2012 Mw6.5 intraslab Zumpango, Mexico earthquake and determined several fundamental source parameters that are in accordance with different and completely independent estimates for Mexican and worldwide earthquakes. Our weighted-average final model satisfactorily explains eastward rupture directivity observed in the recorded data. Some parameters found for the Zumpango earthquake are: Δτ = 30.2+/-6.2 MPa, Er = 0.68+/-0.36x10^15 J, G = 1.74+/-0.44x10^15 J, η = 0.27+/-0.11, Vr/Vs = 0.52+/-0.09 and Mw = 6.64+/-0.07; for the stress drop

  15. Probabilistic tsunami inundation map based on stochastic earthquake source model: A demonstration case in Macau, the South China Sea (United States)

    Li, Linlin; Switzer, Adam D.; Wang, Yu; Chan, Chung-Han; Qiu, Qiang; Weiss, Robert


    Current tsunami inundation maps are commonly generated using deterministic scenarios, either for real-time forecasting or based on hypothetical "worst-case" events. Such maps are mainly used for emergency response and evacuation planning and do not include the information of return period. However, in practice, probabilistic tsunami inundation maps are required in a wide variety of applications, such as land-use planning, engineer design and for insurance purposes. In this study, we present a method to develop the probabilistic tsunami inundation map using a stochastic earthquake source model. To demonstrate the methodology, we take Macau a coastal city in the South China Sea as an example. Two major advances of this method are: it incorporates the most updated information of seismic tsunamigenic sources along the Manila megathrust; it integrates a stochastic source model into a Monte Carlo-type simulation in which a broad range of slip distribution patterns are generated for large numbers of synthetic earthquake events. When aggregated the large amount of inundation simulation results, we analyze the uncertainties associated with variability of earthquake rupture location and slip distribution. We also explore how tsunami hazard evolves in Macau in the context of sea level rise. Our results suggest Macau faces moderate tsunami risk due to its low-lying elevation, extensive land reclamation, high coastal population and major infrastructure density. Macau consists of four districts: Macau Peninsula, Taipa Island, Coloane island and Cotai strip. Of these Macau Peninsula is the most vulnerable to tsunami due to its low-elevation and exposure to direct waves and refracted waves from the offshore region and reflected waves from mainland. Earthquakes with magnitude larger than Mw8.0 in the northern Manila trench would likely cause hazardous inundation in Macau. Using a stochastic source model, we are able to derive a spread of potential tsunami impacts for earthquakes

  16. The puzzle of the 1996 Bárdarbunga, Iceland, earthquake: no volumetric component in the source mechanism (United States)

    Tkalcic, Hrvoje; Dreger, Douglas S.; Foulger, Gillian R.; Julian, Bruce R.


    A volcanic earthquake with Mw 5.6 occurred beneath the Bárdarbunga caldera in Iceland on 29 September 1996. This earthquake is one of a decade-long sequence of  events at Bárdarbunga with non-double-couple mechanisms in the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog. Fortunately, it was recorded well by the regional-scale Iceland Hotspot Project seismic experiment. We investigated the event with a complete moment tensor inversion method using regional long-period seismic waveforms and a composite structural model. The moment tensor inversion using data from stations of the Iceland Hotspot Project yields a non-double-couple solution with a 67% vertically oriented compensated linear vector dipole component, a 32% double-couple component, and a statistically insignificant (2%) volumetric (isotropic) contraction. This indicates the absence of a net volumetric component, which is puzzling in the case of a large volcanic earthquake that apparently is not explained by shear slip on a planar fault. A possible volcanic mechanism that can produce an earthquake without a volumetric component involves two offset sources with similar but opposite volume changes. We show that although such a model cannot be ruled out, the circumstances under which it could happen are rare.

  17. The 2008 Wells, Nevada earthquake sequence: Source constraints using calibrated multiple event relocation and InSAR (United States)

    Nealy, Jennifer; Benz, Harley M.; Hayes, Gavin; Berman, Eric; Barnhart, William


    The 2008 Wells, NV earthquake represents the largest domestic event in the conterminous U.S. outside of California since the October 1983 Borah Peak earthquake in southern Idaho. We present an improved catalog, magnitude complete to 1.6, of the foreshock-aftershock sequence, supplementing the current U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Preliminary Determination of Epicenters (PDE) catalog with 1,928 well-located events. In order to create this catalog, both subspace and kurtosis detectors are used to obtain an initial set of earthquakes and associated locations. The latter are then calibrated through the implementation of the hypocentroidal decomposition method and relocated using the BayesLoc relocation technique. We additionally perform a finite fault slip analysis of the mainshock using InSAR observations. By combining the relocated sequence with the finite fault analysis, we show that the aftershocks occur primarily updip and along the southwestern edge of the zone of maximum slip. The aftershock locations illuminate areas of post-mainshock strain increase; aftershock depths, ranging from 5 to 16 km, are consistent with InSAR imaging, which shows that the Wells earthquake was a buried source with no observable near-surface offset.

  18. Analog earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hofmann, R.B.


    Analogs are used to understand complex or poorly understood phenomena for which little data may be available at the actual repository site. Earthquakes are complex phenomena, and they can have a large number of effects on the natural system, as well as on engineered structures. Instrumental data close to the source of large earthquakes are rarely obtained. The rare events for which measurements are available may be used, with modfications, as analogs for potential large earthquakes at sites where no earthquake data are available. In the following, several examples of nuclear reactor and liquified natural gas facility siting are discussed. A potential use of analog earthquakes is proposed for a high-level nuclear waste (HLW) repository

  19. Source parameters estimation of 2003 Bam earthquake Mw 6.5 ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abad station, by means of an inversion solution technique and predicted seismograms at another far station,. Abaragh, incorporating the estimated ... circle), causative fault location of the Bam earthquake (black line), and surface traces (dashed ...

  20. Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes. (United States)

    Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro


    Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of their high sensitivity to stress changes in the seismogenic zone. Episodic stress transfer to megathrust source faults leads to an increased probability of triggering huge earthquakes if the adjacent locked region is critically loaded. Careful and precise monitoring of slow earthquakes may provide new information on the likelihood of impending huge earthquakes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  1. Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems as a Strategy for Predicting and Controling the Energy Produced from Renewable Sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Otilia Elena Dragomir


    Full Text Available The challenge for our paper consists in controlling the performance of the future state of a microgrid with energy produced from renewable energy sources. The added value of this proposal consists in identifying the most used criteria, related to each modeling step, able to lead us to an optimal neural network forecasting tool. In order to underline the effects of users’ decision making on the forecasting performance, in the second part of the article, two Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS models are tested and evaluated. Several scenarios are built by changing: the prediction time horizon (Scenario 1 and the shape of membership functions (Scenario 2.

  2. Overview of the relations earthquake source parameters and the specification of strong ground motion for design purposes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernreuter, D.L.


    One of the most important steps in the seismic design process is the specification of the appropriate ground motion to be input into the design analysis. From the point-of-view of engineering design analysis, the important parameters are peak ground acceleration, spectral shape and peak spectral levels. In a few cases, ground displacement is a useful parameter. The earthquake is usually specified by giving its magnitude and either the epicentral distance or the distance of the closest point on the causitive fault to the site. Typically, the appropriate ground motion parameters are obtained using the specified magnitude and distance in equations obtained from regression analysis among the appropriate variables. Two major difficulties with such an approach are: magnitude is not the best parameter to use to define the strength of an earthquake, and little near-field data is available to establish the appropriate form for the attenuation of the ground motion with distance, source size and strength. These difficulties are important for designing a critical facility; i.e., one for which a very low risk of exceeding the design ground motion is required. Examples of such structures are nuclear power plants, schools and hospitals. for such facilities, a better understanding of the relation between the ground motion and the important earthquake source parameters could be very useful for several reasons

  3. CrowdSource: Automated Inference of High Level Malware Functionality from Low-Level Symbols Using a Crowd Trained Machine Learning Model


    Saxe, Joshua; Turner, Rafael; Blokhin, Kristina


    In this paper we introduce CrowdSource, a statistical natural language processing system designed to make rapid inferences about malware functionality based on printable character strings extracted from malware binaries. CrowdSource "learns" a mapping between low-level language and high-level software functionality by leveraging millions of web technical documents from StackExchange, a popular network of technical question and answer sites, using this mapping to infer malware capabilities. Th...

  4. Paleoseismology of the 2010 Mw 7.1 Darfield (Canterbury) earthquake source, Greendale Fault, New Zealand (United States)

    Hornblow, S.; Quigley, M.; Nicol, A.; VanDissen, R.


    The previously unknown Greendale Fault ruptured in the moment magnitude (Mw) 7.1 Darfield earthquake and produced the first historical surface rupture on the Latest Pleistocene gravel surface of the Canterbury Plains west of Christchurch, New Zealand. Surface rupture fracture patterns and discrete and distributed displacements along the GF were measured with high precision using a combined approach of field mapping, airborne lidar, and terrestrial lidar. No unambiguous geomorphic evidence of a penultimate GF surface rupture was revealed from pre-2010 imagery. In order to constrain the displacement, timing and magnitude of paleo-earthquakes on the Greendale Fault, we conducted trenching investigations across the central part of the fault where the largest vertical and horizontal coseismic displacements were recorded. Riedel shear fractures were one of the most conspicuous features of the surface rupture deformation zone. Subsurface trenching reveals faulted stratigraphy of gravels interbedded with thin sand and silt paleochannels. At one site, a shallow channel 90 cm below the surface is offset 60×10 cm right laterally and 9×5 cm vertically across a discrete Riedel shear, similar to dextral displacement measurements at the ground surface of nearby cultural features. Offset of an underlying channel 3 m below the surface is 120× 15 cm right-lateral and 21× 5 cm vertical, interpreted to be the result of successive slip-at-a-point in both a penultimate earthquake and the Darfield earthquake. Data from a second trench reveals single-offset gravel 2.3 m below the surface which corroborates these findings and indicates lateral variation in the thickness of sediment deposited after the penultimate rupture. Optically stimulated luminescence dating of the channels yields an age of 22 × 2 ka for the single-offset sand and 28 × 2 ka for the twice-offset sand. We conclude that the penultimate Greendale Fault surface rupturing earthquake occurred across an actively

  5. Bayesian historical earthquake relocation: an example from the 1909 Taipei earthquake (United States)

    Minson, Sarah E.; Lee, William H. K.


    Locating earthquakes from the beginning of the modern instrumental period is complicated by the fact that there are few good-quality seismograms and what traveltimes do exist may be corrupted by both large phase-pick errors and clock errors. Here, we outline a Bayesian approach to simultaneous inference of not only the hypocentre location but also the clock errors at each station and the origin time of the earthquake. This methodology improves the solution for the source location and also provides an uncertainty analysis on all of the parameters included in the inversion. As an example, we applied this Bayesian approach to the well-studied 1909 Mw 7 Taipei earthquake. While our epicentre location and origin time for the 1909 Taipei earthquake are consistent with earlier studies, our focal depth is significantly shallower suggesting a higher seismic hazard to the populous Taipei metropolitan area than previously supposed.

  6. Bayesian historical earthquake relocation: an example from the 1909 Taipei earthquake (United States)

    Minson, Sarah E.; Lee, William H.K.


    Locating earthquakes from the beginning of the modern instrumental period is complicated by the fact that there are few good-quality seismograms and what traveltimes do exist may be corrupted by both large phase-pick errors and clock errors. Here, we outline a Bayesian approach to simultaneous inference of not only the hypocentre location but also the clock errors at each station and the origin time of the earthquake. This methodology improves the solution for the source location and also provides an uncertainty analysis on all of the parameters included in the inversion. As an example, we applied this Bayesian approach to the well-studied 1909 Mw 7 Taipei earthquake. While our epicentre location and origin time for the 1909 Taipei earthquake are consistent with earlier studies, our focal depth is significantly shallower suggesting a higher seismic hazard to the populous Taipei metropolitan area than previously supposed.

  7. Inferring source attribution from a multiyear multisource data set of Salmonella in Minnesota. (United States)

    Ahlstrom, C; Muellner, P; Spencer, S E F; Hong, S; Saupe, A; Rovira, A; Hedberg, C; Perez, A; Muellner, U; Alvarez, J


    Salmonella enterica is a global health concern because of its widespread association with foodborne illness. Bayesian models have been developed to attribute the burden of human salmonellosis to specific sources with the ultimate objective of prioritizing intervention strategies. Important considerations of source attribution models include the evaluation of the quality of input data, assessment of whether attribution results logically reflect the data trends and identification of patterns within the data that might explain the detailed contribution of different sources to the disease burden. Here, more than 12,000 non-typhoidal Salmonella isolates from human, bovine, porcine, chicken and turkey sources that originated in Minnesota were analysed. A modified Bayesian source attribution model (available in a dedicated R package), accounting for non-sampled sources of infection, attributed 4,672 human cases to sources assessed here. Most (60%) cases were attributed to chicken, although there was a spike in cases attributed to a non-sampled source in the second half of the study period. Molecular epidemiological analysis methods were used to supplement risk modelling, and a visual attribution application was developed to facilitate data exploration and comprehension of the large multiyear data set assessed here. A large amount of within-source diversity and low similarity between sources was observed, and visual exploration of data provided clues into variations driving the attribution modelling results. Results from this pillared approach provided first attribution estimates for Salmonella in Minnesota and offer an understanding of current data gaps as well as key pathogen population features, such as serotype frequency, similarity and diversity across the sources. Results here will be used to inform policy and management strategies ultimately intended to prevent and control Salmonella infection in the state. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  8. Bayesian Inference for Source Term Estimation: Application to the International Monitoring System Radionuclide Network (United States)


    Laboratories (CRL) medical isotope production facility. The sampling of the resulting posterior distribution of the source parameters is un- dertaken...International Monitoring System radionuclide network used for Case 2. The location of the Xe-133 tracer source (red marker) was at Chalk River Laboratories 5 Applications The International Monitoring System (IMS) consists of a comprehensive network of seismic, hydroacoustic , infrasound, and

  9. Earthquake source parameters from GPS-measured static displacements with potential for real-time application

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    O'Toole, T.B.; Valentine, A.P.; Woodhouse, J.H.


    We describe a method for determining an optimal centroid– moment tensor solution of an earthquake from a set of static displacements measured using a network of Global Positioning System receivers. Using static displacements observed after the 4 April 2010, MW 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah, Mexico,

  10. Variable anelastic attenuation and site effect in estimating source parameters of various major earthquakes including M w 7.8 Nepal and M w 7.5 Hindu kush earthquake by using far-field strong-motion data (United States)

    Kumar, Naresh; Kumar, Parveen; Chauhan, Vishal; Hazarika, Devajit


    Strong-motion records of recent Gorkha Nepal earthquake ( M w 7.8), its strong aftershocks and seismic events of Hindu kush region have been analysed for estimation of source parameters. The M w 7.8 Gorkha Nepal earthquake of 25 April 2015 and its six aftershocks of magnitude range 5.3-7.3 are recorded at Multi-Parametric Geophysical Observatory, Ghuttu, Garhwal Himalaya (India) >600 km west from the epicentre of main shock of Gorkha earthquake. The acceleration data of eight earthquakes occurred in the Hindu kush region also recorded at this observatory which is located >1000 km east from the epicentre of M w 7.5 Hindu kush earthquake on 26 October 2015. The shear wave spectra of acceleration record are corrected for the possible effects of anelastic attenuation at both source and recording site as well as for site amplification. The strong-motion data of six local earthquakes are used to estimate the site amplification and the shear wave quality factor ( Q β) at recording site. The frequency-dependent Q β( f) = 124 f 0.98 is computed at Ghuttu station by using inversion technique. The corrected spectrum is compared with theoretical spectrum obtained from Brune's circular model for the horizontal components using grid search algorithm. Computed seismic moment, stress drop and source radius of the earthquakes used in this work range 8.20 × 1016-5.72 × 1020 Nm, 7.1-50.6 bars and 3.55-36.70 km, respectively. The results match with the available values obtained by other agencies.

  11. Seismogenic Structure Beneath Décollement Inferred from 2009/11/5 ML 6.2 Mingjian Earthquake in Central Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Che-Min Lin


    Full Text Available One decade after the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, central Taiwan experienced more strong ground shaking [Central Weather Bureau (CWB, intensity VII] induced by a ML 6.2 earthquake on 5th November 2009. This earthquake occurred in the Mingjian Township of Nantou County, only 12 km southwest of the Chi-Chi earthquake epicenter. The broadband microearthquake monitoring network operated by the National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering (NCREE observed numerous aftershocks in the five days following the mainshock. The relocated aftershocks and the mainshock focal mechanism indicated a NE-SW striking fault dipping 60¢X toward the northwest. This fault plane is inside the pre-Miocene basement and the rupture extends from the lower crust to 10 km depth just beneath the basal décollement of the thin-skinned model that is generally used to explain the regional tectonics in Taiwan. The fault plane is vertically symmetrical with the Chelungpu fault by the basal décollement. The NW-SE compressive stress of plate collision in Taiwan, as well as the deep tectonic background, resulted in the seismogenic structure of the Mingjian earthquake at this location.

  12. Sources of Increased Spring and Streamflow Caused by the 2014 South Napa Earthquake (United States)

    Rytuba, J. J.; Holzer, T. L.


    Seasonally dry springs and creeks began flowing over a broad region in the hills around Napa following the M6.0 South Napa earthquake on August 24, 2014. Flows in hillside creek beds, which were dry before the earthquake, were reported from 19 km west, to 6 km east, and 18 km north of Napa and the epicenter, an area that shook at MMI≥VI. The exact timing of the increased flow is unknown because the earthquake occurred at 3:20 AM PDT. A gaging station on the Napa River, which is downstream from several tributaries that began flowing after the earthquake, showed a sudden increase of flow rate within 45 minutes following the earthquake. The sudden increase at the gaging station suggests flows initiated either contemporaneously with or very soon after the strong shaking. This timing is consistent with eyewitness accounts of other streams and springs at daylight, a few hours after the earthquake. One of the largest increases of streamflow was in Green Valley, where a streamflow rate of about 100 cubic hectometers per day was measured in Wild Horse Creek. Two types of waters are being discharged in the Wild Horse Creek drainage: 1) water with low iron concentration that has exchanged with rhyolitic flows and tuffs in the upper part of the drainage; and 2) high iron concentration water that has exchanged with basaltic andesite in the middle part of drainage (vertical interval of about 75 meters). The high iron waters are depositing FeOOH other iron phases. Mixing of the two water types results in water with pH 6.9 and conductivity of 0.197 mS. This water is used by the Vallejo Water District for domestic purposes after it is mixed with recent surface water runoff stored in Lake Frey reservoir in order to improve its quality. Other drainages that have increased flow since the earthquake have water chemistry consistent with exchange with rhyolitic flows and tuffs that are the dominant rock type in these drainages.

  13. Nucleation process of an M2 earthquake in a deep gold mine in South Africa inferred from on-fault foreshock activity (United States)

    Yabe, Y.; Nakatani, M.; Naoi, M.; Philipp, J.; Janssen, C.; Kawakata, H.; Dresen, G. H.; Ogasawara, H.


    We observed foreshock activity of an Mw2.2 earthquake (the mainshock) that occurred in a gabbroic dyke at a depth of about 3.3 km from the surface in a deep gold mine in South Africa. Foreshock activity, selectively occurring on a plane on which the mainshock would occur, lasted for at least six months until the mainshock. Rock samples in the mainshock source region were recovered by drilling afterward. Indication of ancient hydrothermal alteration on the rupture plane of the mainshock suggests that the foreshock activity occurred on a pre-existing weakness, probably a healed joint, to nucleate the mainshock. The foreshocks during the three months leading up to the mainshock concentrated to three clusters (F1-F3), which, we interpreted, represent the nucleation at multiple sites. The temporal variation in the foreshock activity in the three months can be well explained by the temporal variation of the stressing state in the source region of the mainshock due to nearby mining. One of these clusters (cluster F2) showed an accelerated activity from about 10 days before the mainshock, while activity over the entire foreshock area was rather constant. The foreshock sources in the final 41 hours, during which the stress state was constant, migrated from F2 to F1 that neighbored to the mainshock hypocenter, suggesting coalescence of the two nuclei. The occurrence of mainshock was 0.4-2.3 days earlier than the time expected from an extrapolation of the accelerated foreshock activity in F2. The nucleation of mainshock may have been advanced to the criticality for dynamic instability in a stepwise manner upon the coalescence of nuclei.While the heterogeneity of geological structures obscures the straightforward manifestation of self-driven quasi-static nucleation, the present careful analysis suggests that some essence of such nucleation as known from the fracture theory and laboratory experiments was caught in the pre-M2 AE data on a natural joint at a depth of 3.3 km.

  14. Rupture Process of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake Based upon Joint Source Inversion of Teleseismic and GPS Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shiann-Jong Lee


    Full Text Available This study investigated 18 broadband teleseismic records and 451 near field GPS coseismic deformation data to determine the spatial and temporal slip distribution of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (M 9.0. The results show a large triangular shaped slip zone with several asperities. The largest asperity centered above the hypocenter at about 5 - 30 km depth. A secondary large asperity was found in the deeper subduction zone beneath the hypocenter. The average slip on the fault is ~15 m and the maximum displacement on the biggest asperity is > 30 m. The temporal rupture process shows that the slip nucleated near the hypocenter at the beginning, and then ruptured to the shallow fault plane forming the largest asperity. The slip developed in the deeper subduction zone in the second stage. Finally, the rupture propagated toward the north and south of the fault along the Japan Trench. The source time function shows three segments of energy releases with two large peaks related to the development of the asperities. The overall rupture process is ~180 seconds. This source model coincides well with the aftershock distribution and provides a first-order information on the source complexity of the earthquake which is crucial for further studies.

  15. RuLearn: an Open-source Toolkit for the Automatic Inference of Shallow-transfer Rules for Machine Translation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sánchez-Cartagena Víctor M.


    Full Text Available This paper presents ruLearn, an open-source toolkit for the automatic inference of rules for shallow-transfer machine translation from scarce parallel corpora and morphological dictionaries. ruLearn will make rule-based machine translation a very appealing alternative for under-resourced language pairs because it avoids the need for human experts to handcraft transfer rules and requires, in contrast to statistical machine translation, a small amount of parallel corpora (a few hundred parallel sentences proved to be sufficient. The inference algorithm implemented by ruLearn has been recently published by the same authors in Computer Speech & Language (volume 32. It is able to produce rules whose translation quality is similar to that obtained by using hand-crafted rules. ruLearn generates rules that are ready for their use in the Apertium platform, although they can be easily adapted to other platforms. When the rules produced by ruLearn are used together with a hybridisation strategy for integrating linguistic resources from shallow-transfer rule-based machine translation into phrase-based statistical machine translation (published by the same authors in Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, volume 55, they help to mitigate data sparseness. This paper also shows how to use ruLearn and describes its implementation.

  16. Inferring the source of evaporated waters using stable H and O isotopes (United States)

    Stable isotope ratios of H and O are widely used to identify the source of water, e.g., in aquifers, river runoff, soils, plant xylem, and plant-based beverages. In situations where the sampled water is partially evaporated, its isotope values will have evolved along an evaporati...

  17. Finite seismic source parameters inferred from stopping phases for selected events of West Bohemia 2000 swarm

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kolář, Petr; Růžek, Bohuslav


    Roč. 9, č. 4 (2012), s. 435-447 ISSN 1214-9705 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA300120805; GA ČR GAP210/10/1728 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : finite seismic source * stopping phases * West Bohemia earthquke swarm Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 0.530, year: 2011

  18. A Bootstrap-Based Probabilistic Optimization Method to Explore and Efficiently Converge in Solution Spaces of Earthquake Source Parameter Estimation Problems: Application to Volcanic and Tectonic Earthquakes (United States)

    Dahm, T.; Heimann, S.; Isken, M.; Vasyura-Bathke, H.; Kühn, D.; Sudhaus, H.; Kriegerowski, M.; Daout, S.; Steinberg, A.; Cesca, S.


    Seismic source and moment tensor waveform inversion is often ill-posed or non-unique if station coverage is poor or signals are weak. Therefore, the interpretation of moment tensors can become difficult, if not the full model space is explored, including all its trade-offs and uncertainties. This is especially true for non-double couple components of weak or shallow earthquakes, as for instance found in volcanic, geothermal or mining environments.We developed a bootstrap-based probabilistic optimization scheme (Grond), which is based on pre-calculated Greens function full waveform databases (e.g. fomosto tool, Grond is able to efficiently explore the full model space, the trade-offs and the uncertainties of source parameters. The program is highly flexible with respect to the adaption to specific problems, the design of objective functions, and the diversity of empirical datasets.It uses an integrated, robust waveform data processing based on a newly developed Python toolbox for seismology (Pyrocko, see Heimann et al., 2017,, and allows for visual inspection of many aspects of the optimization problem. Grond has been applied to the CMT moment tensor inversion using W-phases, to nuclear explosions in Korea, to meteorite atmospheric explosions, to volcano-tectonic events during caldera collapse and to intra-plate volcanic and tectonic crustal events.Grond can be used to optimize simultaneously seismological waveforms, amplitude spectra and static displacements of geodetic data as InSAR and GPS (e.g. KITE, Isken et al., 2017, We present examples of Grond optimizations to demonstrate the advantage of a full exploration of source parameter uncertainties for interpretation.

  19. Magma source beneath the Bezymianny volcano and its interconnection with Klyuchevskoy inferred from local earthquake seismic tomography (United States)

    Ivanov, A. I.; Koulakov, I. Yu.; West, M.; Jakovlev, A. V.; Gordeev, E. I.; Senyukov, S.; Chebrov, V. N.


    We present a new 3D model of P and S wave velocities and Vp/Vs ratio to 20 km depth beneath the active Klyuchevskoy and Bezymianny volcanoes (Kamchatka, Russia). In this study, we use travel time data from local seismicity recorded by temporary stations of the PIRE experiment from October 24 to December 15, 2009 and permanent stations operated by the Kamchatkan Branch of Geophysical Survey (KBGS). The calculations were performed using the LOTOS code (Koulakov, 2009). The resolution limitations were explored using a series of synthetic tests with checkerboard patterns in the horizontal and vertical sections. At shallow depths, the resulting Vp and Vs anomalies tend to alternate on opposite sides of the lineation connecting the most active volcanic centers of the Klyuchevskoy Volcanic Group (KVG). This prominent lineation suggests the presence of a large fault zone passing throughout the KVG, consistent with regional tectonics. We suggest that this fault zone weakens the crust creating a natural pathway for magmas to reach the upper crust. Beneath Bezymianny volcano we observe a shallow anomaly of high Vp/Vs ratio extending to 5-6 km depth. Beneath Klyuchevskoy another high Vp/Vs anomaly is observed, at deeper depths of 7 and 15 km. These findings are consistent with the regional-scale model of Koulakov et al. (2013a) and provide some explanation for how very different eruption styles can be maintained at two volcanoes in close proximity over numerous eruption cycles.

  20. Wide-band analysis of the 3 March 1985 central Chile earthquake: Overall source process and rupture history (United States)


    We apply a linear, finite-fault waveform inversion scheme to the near-source strong-motion records, the teleseismic body waves, and the long-period Rayleigh waves recorded for the 3 March 1985 Chile earthquake to recover the mainshock rupture history. The data contain periods between about 2 and 350 sec and are inverted by allowing a variable dislocation rise time at each point on the fault. The results indicate that the mainshock had a seismic moment of 1.5 × 1028 dyne-cm (Mw 8.0) and ruptured mainly updip and to the south of the hypocenter for a distance of about 150 km along the Nazca-South America plate boundary. A smaller northward component of propagation is also evident, giving a total rupture length of about 200 km. The total source duration of the mainshock is 70 sec, with the majority of the slip occurring within the first 40 sec in a broad 100-km-wide zone in the northern half of the rupture area. Slip in this region extends from a depth of 55 km to within about 10 km of the surface and contains two areas of maximum slip (2.3 and 2.9 m) with rise times of approximately 14 sec. Slip in the southern portion of the fault reaches lower peak values (1.8 m) and extends downdip to depths no greater than 30 km. An independent variable rise-time inversion of the teleseismic body waves alone yields similar results, indicating that a significant component of slow fault motion is not required for this earthquake. The mainshock was preceded by several smaller precursors, the largest of which is an Mw ∼ 6.6 thrust earthquake occurring at a depth of 22 km in the shallow 15° dipping portion of the plate interface.

  1. The 1946 Unimak Tsunami Earthquake Area: revised tectonic structure in reprocessed seismic images and a suspect near field tsunami source (United States)

    Miller, John J.; von Huene, Roland E.; Ryan, Holly F.


    In 1946 at Unimak Pass, Alaska, a tsunami destroyed the lighthouse at Scotch Cap, Unimak Island, took 159 lives on the Hawaiian Islands, damaged island coastal facilities across the south Pacific, and destroyed a hut in Antarctica. The tsunami magnitude of 9.3 is comparable to the magnitude 9.1 tsunami that devastated the Tohoku coast of Japan in 2011. Both causative earthquake epicenters occurred in shallow reaches of the subduction zone. Contractile tectonism along the Alaska margin presumably generated the far-field tsunami by producing a seafloor elevation change. However, the Scotch Cap lighthouse was destroyed by a near-field tsunami that was probably generated by a coeval large undersea landslide, yet bathymetric surveys showed no fresh large landslide scar. We investigated this problem by reprocessing five seismic lines, presented here as high-resolution graphic images, both uninterpreted and interpreted, and available for the reader to download. In addition, the processed seismic data for each line are available for download as seismic industry-standard SEG-Y files. One line, processed through prestack depth migration, crosses a 10 × 15 kilometer and 800-meter-high hill presumed previously to be basement, but that instead is composed of stratified rock superimposed on the slope sediment. This image and multibeam bathymetry illustrate a slide block that could have sourced the 1946 near-field tsunami because it is positioned within a distance determined by the time between earthquake shaking and the tsunami arrival at Scotch Cap and is consistent with the local extent of high runup of 42 meters along the adjacent Alaskan coast. The Unimak/Scotch Cap margin is structurally similar to the 2011 Tohoku tsunamigenic margin where a large landslide at the trench, coeval with the Tohoku earthquake, has been documented. Further study can improve our understanding of tsunami sources along Alaska’s erosional margins.

  2. Source of high tsunamis along the southernmost Ryukyu trench inferred from tsunami stratigraphy (United States)

    Ando, Masataka; Kitamura, Akihisa; Tu, Yoko; Ohashi, Yoko; Imai, Takafumi; Nakamura, Mamoru; Ikuta, Ryoya; Miyairi, Yosuke; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Shishikura, Masanobu


    Four paleotsunamis deposits are exposed in a trench on the coastal lowland north of the southern Ryukyu subduction zone trench. Radiocarbon ages on coral and bivalve shells show that the four deposits record tsunamis date from the last 2000 yrs., including a historical tsunami with a maximum run-up of 30 m in 1771, for an average recurrence interval of approximately 600 yrs. Ground fissures in a soil beneath the 1771 tsunami deposit may have been generated by stronger shaking than recorded by historical documents. The repeated occurrence of the paleotsunami deposits supports a tectonic source model on the plate boundary rather than a nontectonic source model, such as submarine landslides. Assuming a thrust model at the subduction zone, the seismic coupling ratio may be as low as 20%.

  3. The evaluation of the earthquake hazard using the exponential distribution method for different seismic source regions in and around Ağrı

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bayrak, Yusuf; Türker, Tuğba


    The aim of this study; were determined of the earthquake hazard using the exponential distribution method for different seismic sources of the Ağrı and vicinity. A homogeneous earthquake catalog has been examined for 1900-2015 (the instrumental period) with 456 earthquake data for Ağrı and vicinity. Catalog; Bogazici University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (Burke), National Earthquake Monitoring Center (NEMC), TUBITAK, TURKNET the International Seismological Center (ISC), Seismological Research Institute (IRIS) has been created using different catalogs like. Ağrı and vicinity are divided into 7 different seismic source regions with epicenter distribution of formed earthquakes in the instrumental period, focal mechanism solutions, and existing tectonic structures. In the study, the average magnitude value are calculated according to the specified magnitude ranges for 7 different seismic source region. According to the estimated calculations for 7 different seismic source regions, the biggest difference corresponding with the classes of determined magnitudes between observed and expected cumulative probabilities are determined. The recurrence period and earthquake occurrence number per year are estimated of occurring earthquakes in the Ağrı and vicinity. As a result, 7 different seismic source regions are determined occurrence probabilities of an earthquake 3.2 magnitude, Region 1 was greater than 6.7 magnitude, Region 2 was greater than than 4.7 magnitude, Region 3 was greater than 5.2 magnitude, Region 4 was greater than 6.2 magnitude, Region 5 was greater than 5.7 magnitude, Region 6 was greater than 7.2 magnitude, Region 7 was greater than 6.2 magnitude. The highest observed magnitude 7 different seismic source regions of Ağrı and vicinity are estimated 7 magnitude in Region 6. Region 6 are determined according to determining magnitudes, occurrence years of earthquakes in the future years, respectively, 7.2 magnitude was in 158

  4. The evaluation of the earthquake hazard using the exponential distribution method for different seismic source regions in and around Ağrı

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: [Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen University, Ağrı/Turkey (Turkey); Türker, Tuğba, E-mail: [Karadeniz Technical University, Department of Geophysics, Trabzon/Turkey (Turkey)


    The aim of this study; were determined of the earthquake hazard using the exponential distribution method for different seismic sources of the Ağrı and vicinity. A homogeneous earthquake catalog has been examined for 1900-2015 (the instrumental period) with 456 earthquake data for Ağrı and vicinity. Catalog; Bogazici University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (Burke), National Earthquake Monitoring Center (NEMC), TUBITAK, TURKNET the International Seismological Center (ISC), Seismological Research Institute (IRIS) has been created using different catalogs like. Ağrı and vicinity are divided into 7 different seismic source regions with epicenter distribution of formed earthquakes in the instrumental period, focal mechanism solutions, and existing tectonic structures. In the study, the average magnitude value are calculated according to the specified magnitude ranges for 7 different seismic source region. According to the estimated calculations for 7 different seismic source regions, the biggest difference corresponding with the classes of determined magnitudes between observed and expected cumulative probabilities are determined. The recurrence period and earthquake occurrence number per year are estimated of occurring earthquakes in the Ağrı and vicinity. As a result, 7 different seismic source regions are determined occurrence probabilities of an earthquake 3.2 magnitude, Region 1 was greater than 6.7 magnitude, Region 2 was greater than than 4.7 magnitude, Region 3 was greater than 5.2 magnitude, Region 4 was greater than 6.2 magnitude, Region 5 was greater than 5.7 magnitude, Region 6 was greater than 7.2 magnitude, Region 7 was greater than 6.2 magnitude. The highest observed magnitude 7 different seismic source regions of Ağrı and vicinity are estimated 7 magnitude in Region 6. Region 6 are determined according to determining magnitudes, occurrence years of earthquakes in the future years, respectively, 7.2 magnitude was in 158

  5. Inverse current source density method in two dimensions: inferring neural activation from multielectrode recordings. (United States)

    Łęski, Szymon; Pettersen, Klas H; Tunstall, Beth; Einevoll, Gaute T; Gigg, John; Wójcik, Daniel K


    The recent development of large multielectrode recording arrays has made it affordable for an increasing number of laboratories to record from multiple brain regions simultaneously. The development of analytical tools for array data, however, lags behind these technological advances in hardware. In this paper, we present a method based on forward modeling for estimating current source density from electrophysiological signals recorded on a two-dimensional grid using multi-electrode rectangular arrays. This new method, which we call two-dimensional inverse Current Source Density (iCSD 2D), is based upon and extends our previous one- and three-dimensional techniques. We test several variants of our method, both on surrogate data generated from a collection of Gaussian sources, and on model data from a population of layer 5 neocortical pyramidal neurons. We also apply the method to experimental data from the rat subiculum. The main advantages of the proposed method are the explicit specification of its assumptions, the possibility to include system-specific information as it becomes available, the ability to estimate CSD at the grid boundaries, and lower reconstruction errors when compared to the traditional approach. These features make iCSD 2D a substantial improvement over the approaches used so far and a powerful new tool for the analysis of multielectrode array data. We also provide a free GUI-based MATLAB toolbox to analyze and visualize our test data as well as user datasets.

  6. A new model on the cause of Tangshan earthquakes in 1976 (United States)

    Wang, Jian


    In this paper the shortages of explanations on the cause of Tangshan earthquakes in 1976 are pointed out. Earthquake phenomena around Tangshan earthquakes are analyzed synthetically, it is noticed that the most prominent seismic phenomenon are seismic denseness of M L=4, but M L=3 and M L=2 is not active in the same temporal-spatial interval, which occurred from 1973 to 1975. We think that the phenomenon should correspond to relative integrity of the crust medium under higher regional stress. Assuming that the seismicity in circumjacent region could reflect the jostling extent of surrounding plates toward the Chinese mainland, it is inferred that there are multi-dynamical processes in North China region in 1970s, which supply the basic dynamical source to Tangshan earthquakes. A model of multi-dynamical processes and local weakening of the crust is proposed to explain the cause of Tangshan earthquakes. This model could unpuzzle many seismic phenomena related to Tangshan earthquakes.

  7. Rupture evolution of the 2006 Java tsunami earthquake and the possible role of splay faults (United States)

    Fan, Wenyuan; Bassett, Dan; Jiang, Junle; Shearer, Peter M.; Ji, Chen


    The 2006 Mw 7.8 Java earthquake was a tsunami earthquake, exhibiting frequency-dependent seismic radiation along strike. High-frequency global back-projection results suggest two distinct rupture stages. The first stage lasted ∼65 s with a rupture speed of ∼1.2 km/s, while the second stage lasted from ∼65 to 150 s with a rupture speed of ∼2.7 km/s. High-frequency radiators resolved with back-projection during the second stage spatially correlate with splay fault traces mapped from residual free-air gravity anomalies. These splay faults also colocate with a major tsunami source associated with the earthquake inferred from tsunami first-crest back-propagation simulation. These correlations suggest that the splay faults may have been reactivated during the Java earthquake, as has been proposed for other tsunamigenic earthquakes, such as the 1944 Mw 8.1 Tonankai earthquake in the Nankai Trough.

  8. Twitter as Information Source for Rapid Damage Estimation after Major Earthquakes (United States)

    Eggert, Silke; Fohringer, Joachim


    Natural disasters like earthquakes require a fast response from local authorities. Well trained rescue teams have to be available, equipment and technology has to be ready set up, information have to be directed to the right positions so the head quarter can manage the operation precisely. The main goal is to reach the most affected areas in a minimum of time. But even with the best preparation for these cases, there will always be the uncertainty of what really happened in the affected area. Modern geophysical sensor networks provide high quality data. These measurements, however, are only mapping disjoint values from their respective locations for a limited amount of parameters. Using observations of witnesses represents one approach to enhance measured values from sensors ("humans as sensors"). These observations are increasingly disseminated via social media platforms. These "social sensors" offer several advantages over common sensors, e.g. high mobility, high versatility of captured parameters as well as rapid distribution of information. Moreover, the amount of data offered by social media platforms is quite extensive. We analyze messages distributed via Twitter after major earthquakes to get rapid information on what eye-witnesses report from the epicentral area. We use this information to (a) quickly learn about damage and losses to support fast disaster response and to (b) densify geophysical networks in areas where there is sparse information to gain a more detailed insight on felt intensities. We present a case study from the Mw 7.1 Philippines (Bohol) earthquake that happened on Oct. 15 2013. We extract Twitter messages, so called tweets containing one or more specified keywords from the semantic field of "earthquake" and use them for further analysis. For the time frame of Oct. 15 to Oct 18 we get a data base of in total 50.000 tweets whereof 2900 tweets are geo-localized and 470 have a photo attached. Analyses for both national level and locally for

  9. SCARDEC: a new technique for the rapid determination of seismic moment magnitude, focal mechanism and source time functions for large earthquakes using body-wave deconvolution (United States)

    Vallée, M.; Charléty, J.; Ferreira, A. M. G.; Delouis, B.; Vergoz, J.


    Accurate and fast magnitude determination for large, shallow earthquakes is of key importance for post-seismic response and tsumami alert purposes. When no local real-time data are available, which is today the case for most subduction earthquakes, the first information comes from teleseismic body waves. Standard body-wave methods give accurate magnitudes for earthquakes up to Mw= 7-7.5. For larger earthquakes, the analysis is more complex, because of the non-validity of the point-source approximation and of the interaction between direct and surface-reflected phases. The latter effect acts as a strong high-pass filter, which complicates the magnitude determination. We here propose an automated deconvolutive approach, which does not impose any simplifying assumptions about the rupture process, thus being well adapted to large earthquakes. We first determine the source duration based on the length of the high frequency (1-3 Hz) signal content. The deconvolution of synthetic double-couple point source signals—depending on the four earthquake parameters strike, dip, rake and depth—from the windowed real data body-wave signals (including P, PcP, PP, SH and ScS waves) gives the apparent source time function (STF). We search the optimal combination of these four parameters that respects the physical features of any STF: causality, positivity and stability of the seismic moment at all stations. Once this combination is retrieved, the integration of the STFs gives directly the moment magnitude. We apply this new approach, referred as the SCARDEC method, to most of the major subduction earthquakes in the period 1990-2010. Magnitude differences between the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) and the SCARDEC method may reach 0.2, but values are found consistent if we take into account that the Global CMT solutions for large, shallow earthquakes suffer from a known trade-off between dip and seismic moment. We show by modelling long-period surface waves of these events that

  10. Binary black hole merger rates inferred from luminosity function of ultra-luminous X-ray sources (United States)

    Inoue, Yoshiyuki; Tanaka, Yasuyuki T.; Isobe, Naoki


    The Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (aLIGO) has detected direct signals of gravitational waves (GWs) from GW150914. The event was a merger of binary black holes whose masses are 36^{+5}_{-4} M_{{⊙}} and 29^{+4}_{-4} M_{{⊙}}. Such binary systems are expected to be directly evolved from stellar binary systems or formed by dynamical interactions of black holes in dense stellar environments. Here we derive the binary black hole merger rate based on the nearby ultra-luminous X-ray source (ULX) luminosity function (LF) under the assumption that binary black holes evolve through X-ray emitting phases. We obtain the binary black hole merger rate as 5.8(tULX/0.1 Myr)- 1λ- 0.6exp ( - 0.30λ) Gpc- 3 yr- 1, where tULX is the typical duration of the ULX phase and λ is the Eddington ratio in luminosity. This is coincident with the event rate inferred from the detection of GW150914 as well as the predictions based on binary population synthesis models. Although we are currently unable to constrain the Eddington ratio of ULXs in luminosity due to the uncertainties of our models and measured binary black hole merger event rates, further X-ray and GW data will allow us to narrow down the range of the Eddington ratios of ULXs. We also find the cumulative merger rate for the mass range of 5 M⊙ ≤ MBH ≤ 100 M⊙ inferred from the ULX LF is consistent with that estimated by the aLIGO collaboration considering various astrophysical conditions such as the mass function of black holes.

  11. Estimates of water source contributions in a dynamic urban water supply system inferred via a Bayesian stable isotope mixing model (United States)

    Jameel, M. Y.; Brewer, S.; Fiorella, R.; Tipple, B. J.; Bowen, G. J.; Terry, S.


    Public water supply systems (PWSS) are complex distribution systems and critical infrastructure, making them vulnerable to physical disruption and contamination. Exploring the susceptibility of PWSS to such perturbations requires detailed knowledge of the supply system structure and operation. Although the physical structure of supply systems (i.e., pipeline connection) is usually well documented for developed cities, the actual flow patterns of water in these systems are typically unknown or estimated based on hydrodynamic models with limited observational validation. Here, we present a novel method for mapping the flow structure of water in a large, complex PWSS, building upon recent work highlighting the potential of stable isotopes of water (SIW) to document water management practices within complex PWSS. We sampled a major water distribution system of the Salt Lake Valley, Utah, measuring SIW of water sources, treatment facilities, and numerous sites within in the supply system. We then developed a hierarchical Bayesian (HB) isotope mixing model to quantify the proportion of water supplied by different sources at sites within the supply system. Known production volumes and spatial distance effects were used to define the prior probabilities for each source; however, we did not include other physical information about the supply system. Our results were in general agreement with those obtained by hydrodynamic models and provide quantitative estimates of contributions of different water sources to a given site along with robust estimates of uncertainty. Secondary properties of the supply system, such as regions of "static" and "dynamic" source (e.g., regions supplied dominantly by one source vs. those experiencing active mixing between multiple sources), can be inferred from the results. The isotope-based HB isotope mixing model offers a new investigative technique for analyzing PWSS and documenting aspects of supply system structure and operation that are

  12. Source parameters and moment tensor of the ML 4.6 earthquake of November 19, 2011, southwest Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gad-Elkareem Abdrabou Mohamed


    Twenty seven small and micro earthquakes (1.5 ⩽ ML ⩽ 4.2 were also recorded by the Egyptian National Seismological Network (ENSN from the same region. We estimate the source parameters for these earthquakes using displacement spectra. The obtained source parameters include seismic moments of 2.77E+16–1.47E+22 dyne cm, stress drops of 0.0005–0.0617 MPa and relative displacement of 0.0001–0.0152 cm.

  13. Controlled-Source Seismic Imaging of Rift Processes and Earthquake Hazards in the Salton Trough (United States)

    Hole, J. A.; Stock, J. M.; Fuis, G. S.


    The NSF MARGINS program, the NSF EarthScope program, and the U.S. Geological Survey have funded a large seismic refraction and reflection survey of the Salton Trough in southern California and northern Mexico, including the Coachella, Imperial, and Mexicali Valleys. The purpose of this presentation is to communicate plans for the seismic project and encourage synergy with piggyback and complementary studies. Fieldwork is tentatively scheduled for January 2010. The goals of the project include both rifting processes at the northern end of the Gulf of California extensional province and earthquake hazards at the southern end of the San Andreas Fault system. In the central Salton Trough, North American lithosphere appears to have been rifted completely apart. The 20-22 km thick crust is apparently composed entirely of new crust added by magmatism from below and sedimentation from above. The seismic survey will investigate the style of continental breakup, the role and mode of magmatism, the effects of rapid Colorado River sedimentation upon extension and magmatism, and the partitioning of oblique extension. The southernmost San Andreas Fault is considered at high risk of producing a large damaging earthquake, yet structure of the fault and adjacent basins are not currently well constrained. To improve hazard models, the seismic survey will image the structure of the San Andreas and Imperial Faults, structure of sedimentary basins in the Salton Trough, and three-dimensional seismic velocity of the crust and uppermost mantle.

  14. Source analysis using regional empirical Green's functions: The 2008 Wells, Nevada, earthquake (United States)

    Mendoza, C.; Hartzell, S.


    We invert three-component, regional broadband waveforms recorded for the 21 February 2008 Wells, Nevada, earthquake using a finite-fault methodology that prescribes subfault responses using eight MW∼4 aftershocks as empirical Green's functions (EGFs) distributed within a 20-km by 21.6-km fault area. The inversion identifies a seismic moment of 6.2 x 1024 dyne-cm (5.8 MW) with slip concentrated in a compact 6.5-km by 4-km region updip from the hypocenter. The peak slip within this localized area is 88 cm and the stress drop is 72 bars, which is higher than expected for Basin and Range normal faults in the western United States. The EGF approach yields excellent fits to the complex regional waveforms, accounting for strong variations in wave propagation and site effects. This suggests that the procedure is useful for studying moderate-size earthquakes with limited teleseismic or strong-motion data and for examining uncertainties in slip models obtained using theoretical Green's functions.

  15. Seismoacoustic Coupled Signals From Earthquakes in Central Italy: Epicentral and Secondary Sources of Infrasound (United States)

    Shani-Kadmiel, Shahar; Assink, Jelle D.; Smets, Pieter S. M.; Evers, Läslo G.


    In this study we analyze infrasound signals from three earthquakes in central Italy. The Mw 6.0 Amatrice, Mw 5.9 Visso, and Mw 6.5 Norcia earthquakes generated significant epicentral ground motions that couple to the atmosphere and produce infrasonic waves. Epicentral seismic and infrasonic signals are detected at I26DE; however, a third type of signal, which arrives after the seismic wave train and before the epicentral infrasound signal, is also detected. This peculiar signal propagates across the array at acoustic wave speeds, but the celerity associated with it is 3 times the speed of sound. Atmosphere-independent backprojections and full 3-D ray tracing using atmospheric conditions of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts are used to demonstrate that this apparently fast-arriving infrasound signal originates from ground motions more than 400 km away from the epicenter. The location of the secondary infrasound patch coincides with the closest bounce point to I26DE as depicted by ray tracing backprojections.

  16. Characteristic scale of heterogeneity of seismically active fault and its manifestation in scaling of earthquake source spectra (United States)

    Gusev, A. A.


    Previously, similarity of source spectra of Kamchatka earthquakes with respect to the common corner frequency f c1 and the expressed deviations from similarity for the second f c2 and the third f c3 corner frequencies were revealed. The value of f c3 reflects the characteristic size L is of fault surface; correspondingly, L is ≈ v r T is , where v r is the rupture speed and T is ≈ 1/ f c3 is characteristic time. The estimates of f c3 are used for normalizing f c1 and f c2. In this way one obtains dimensionless rupture temporal parametres τ1 and τ2 and can further study the dependence τ2 (τ1). The growth of a rupture is considered as a process of aggregation of elementary fault spots of the size L is . The dimensionless width of the random front of aggregation is on the order of τ2. The relationship τ2 (τ1) approximately follows power law with exponent β. The estimates of β derived from earthquake populations of Kamchatka, USA and Central Asia (β = 0.35-0.6) agree with values expected from the known Eden's theory of random aggregation growth and from its generalizations.

  17. On the Potential Uses of Static Offsets Derived From Low-Cost Community Instruments and Crowd-Sourcing for Earthquake Monitoring and Rapid Response (United States)

    Minson, S. E.; Brooks, B. A.; Murray, J. R.; Iannucci, R. A.


    We explore the efficacy of low-cost community instruments (LCCIs) and crowd-sourcing to produce rapid estimates of earthquake magnitude and rupture characteristics which can be used for earthquake loss reduction such as issuing tsunami warnings and guiding rapid response efforts. Real-time high-rate GPS data are just beginning to be incorporated into earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. These data are showing promising utility including producing moment magnitude estimates which do not saturate for the largest earthquakes and determining the geometry and slip distribution of the earthquake rupture in real-time. However, building a network of scientific-quality real-time high-rate GPS stations requires substantial infrastructure investment which is not practicable in many parts of the world. To expand the benefits of real-time geodetic monitoring globally, we consider the potential of pseudorange-based GPS locations such as the real-time positioning done onboard cell phones or on LCCIs that could be distributed in the same way accelerometers are distributed as part of the Quake Catcher Network (QCN). While location information from LCCIs often have large uncertainties, their low cost means that large numbers of instruments can be deployed. A monitoring network that includes smartphones could collect data from potentially millions of instruments. These observations could be averaged together to substantially decrease errors associated with estimated earthquake source parameters. While these data will be inferior to data recorded by scientific-grade seismometers and GPS instruments, there are features of community-based data collection (and possibly analysis) that are very attractive. This approach creates a system where every user can host an instrument or download an application to their smartphone that both provides them with earthquake and tsunami warnings while also providing the data on which the warning system operates. This symbiosis helps to encourage

  18. Source to Sink Tectonic Fate of Large Oceanic Turbidite Systems and the Rupturing of Great and Giant Megathrust Earthquakes (Invited) (United States)

    Scholl, D. W.; Kirby, S. H.; von Huene, R.


    OCEAN FLOOR OBSERVATIONS: Oceanic turbidite systems accumulate above igneous oceanic crust and are commonly huge in areal and volumetric dimensions. For example, the volume of the Zodiac fan of the Gulf of Alaska is roughly 300,000 cubic km. Other large oceanic systems construct the Amazon cone, flood the Bay of Bengal abyss, and accumulate along trench axes to thickness of 1 to 7 km and lengths of 1000 to 3000 km, e.g., the Aleutian-Alaska, Sumatra-Andaman, Makran, and south central Chile Trenches. THE ROCK RECORD: Despite the large dimensions of oceanic turbidite systems, they are poorly preserved in the rock record. This includes oceanic systems deposited in passive-margin oceans, e.g., the Paleozoic Iapetus and Rheric oceans of the Atlantic realm, This circumstance does not apply to Cretaceous and E. Tertiary rock sequences of the north Pacific rim where oceanic turbidite deposits are preserved as accretionary complexes, e.g., the Catalina-Pelona-Orocopia-Rand schist of California and the Chugach-Kodiak complex of Alaska. These rock bodies are exhumed crustal underplates of once deeply (15-30 km) subducted oceanic turbidite systems. PATH FROM SOURCE TO TECTONIC SINK: The fate of most oceanic turbidite systems is to be removed from the sea floor and, ultimately, destroyed. This circumstance is unavoidable because most of them are deposited on lower plate crust destined for destruction in a subduction zone. During the past 4-5 myr alone a volume of 1-1.5 million cubic km of sediment sourced from the glaciated drainages of the Gulf of Alaska flooded the 3000-km-long Aleutian-Alaska trench axis. A small part of this volume accumulated tectonically as a narrow, 10-30-km wide accretionary frontal prism. But about 80 percent was subducted and entered the subduction channel separating the two plates. The subduction channel, roughly 1 km thick, conveys the trench turbidite deposits landward down dip along the rupturing width of the seismogenic zone. SEISMIC CONSEQUENCE

  19. Effect of source depth correction on the estimation of earthquake size

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romanelli, F.; Panza, G.


    The relationship between surface wave magnitude, M s , and seismic moment, M o , of earthquakes is essential for the estimation of seismic risk in any region. In the hypothesis of constant stress drop, theoretical models predict that Log M o and M s are related by a linear law. The slope most commonly found in the literature is around 1.5. Here we show that the application to the Ms values of the necessary correction for the focal depth, gives a general increment of the correlation coefficient, and that a slope around 1.0 is consistent with the global data, while for regionalized data it can vary from about 1.0 to 2.0. (author). 14 refs, 3 tabs

  20. A comparison of two methods for earthquake source inversion using strong motion seismograms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. C. Beroza


    Full Text Available In this paper we compare two time-domain inversion methods that have been widely applied to the problem of modeling earthquake rupture using strong-motion seismograms. In the multi-window method, each point on the fault is allowed to rupture multiple times. This allows flexibility in the rupture time and hence the rupture velocity. Variations in the slip-velocity function are accommodated by variations in the slip amplitude in each time-window. The single-window method assumes that each point on the fault ruptures only once, when the rupture front passes. Variations in slip amplitude are allowed and variations in rupture velocity are accommodated by allowing the rupture time to vary. Because the multi-window method allows greater flexibility, it has the potential to describe a wider range of faulting behavior; however, with this increased flexibility comes an increase in the degrees of freedom and the solutions are comparatively less stable. We demonstrate this effect using synthetic data for a test model of the Mw 7.3 1992 Landers, California earthquake, and then apply both inversion methods to the actual recordings. The two approaches yield similar fits to the strong-motion data with different seismic moments indicating that the moment is not well constrained by strong-motion data alone. The slip amplitude distribution is similar using either approach, but important differences exist in the rupture propagation models. The single-window method does a better job of recovering the true seismic moment and the average rupture velocity. The multi-window method is preferable when rise time is strongly variable, but tends to overestimate the seismic moment. Both methods work well when the rise time is constant or short compared to the periods modeled. Neither approach can recover the temporal details of rupture propagation unless the distribution of slip amplitude is constrained by independent data.

  1. Source characteristics of moderate-to-strong earthquakes in the Nantou area, Taiwan: insight from strong ground motion simulations (United States)

    Wen, Yi-Ying; Chao, Shen-Yu; Yen, Yin-Tung; Wen, Strong


    In Taiwan, the Nantou area is a seismically active region where several moderate events have occurred, causing some disasters during the past century. Here, we applied the strong ground motion simulation with the empirical Green's function method to investigate the source characteristics for the eight moderate blind-fault events that struck the Nantou area in 1999 and 2013. The results show that for these Nantou events, a high stress drop and focal depth dependence were noted, which might be related to the immature buried fault in this area. From the viewpoint of seismic hazard prevention and preparation, future earthquake scenarios that include high stress drop should be applied to more analyses, especially the moderate-to-large events originating from the immature blind faulting.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  2. Source rupture process of the 2016 Kaikoura, New Zealand earthquake estimated from the kinematic waveform inversion of strong-motion data (United States)

    Zheng, Ao; Wang, Mingfeng; Yu, Xiangwei; Zhang, Wenbo


    On 2016 November 13, an Mw 7.8 earthquake occurred in the northeast of the South Island of New Zealand near Kaikoura. The earthquake caused severe damages and great impacts on local nature and society. Referring to the tectonic environment and defined active faults, the field investigation and geodetic evidence reveal that at least 12 fault sections ruptured in the earthquake, and the focal mechanism is one of the most complicated in historical earthquakes. On account of the complexity of the source rupture, we propose a multisegment fault model based on the distribution of surface ruptures and active tectonics. We derive the source rupture process of the earthquake using the kinematic waveform inversion method with the multisegment fault model from strong-motion data of 21 stations (0.05-0.35 Hz). The inversion result suggests the rupture initiates in the epicentral area near the Humps fault, and then propagates northeastward along several faults, until the offshore Needles fault. The Mw 7.8 event is a mixture of right-lateral strike and reverse slip, and the maximum slip is approximately 19 m. The synthetic waveforms reproduce the characteristics of the observed ones well. In addition, we synthesize the coseismic offsets distribution of the ruptured region from the slips of upper subfaults in the fault model, which is roughly consistent with the surface breaks observed in the field survey.

  3. Causal inferences on the effectiveness of complex social programs: Navigating assumptions, sources of complexity and evaluation design challenges. (United States)

    Chatterji, Madhabi


    This paper explores avenues for navigating evaluation design challenges posed by complex social programs (CSPs) and their environments when conducting studies that call for generalizable, causal inferences on the intervention's effectiveness. A definition is provided of a CSP drawing on examples from different fields, and an evaluation case is analyzed in depth to derive seven (7) major sources of complexity that typify CSPs, threatening assumptions of textbook-recommended experimental designs for performing impact evaluations. Theoretically-supported, alternative methodological strategies are discussed to navigate assumptions and counter the design challenges posed by the complex configurations and ecology of CSPs. Specific recommendations include: sequential refinement of the evaluation design through systems thinking, systems-informed logic modeling; and use of extended term, mixed methods (ETMM) approaches with exploratory and confirmatory phases of the evaluation. In the proposed approach, logic models are refined through direct induction and interactions with stakeholders. To better guide assumption evaluation, question-framing, and selection of appropriate methodological strategies, a multiphase evaluation design is recommended. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. A new tool for rapid and automatic estimation of earthquake source parameters and generation of seismic bulletins (United States)

    Zollo, Aldo


    RISS S.r.l. is a Spin-off company recently born from the initiative of the research group constituting the Seismology Laboratory of the Department of Physics of the University of Naples Federico II. RISS is an innovative start-up, based on the decade-long experience in earthquake monitoring systems and seismic data analysis of its members and has the major goal to transform the most recent innovations of the scientific research into technological products and prototypes. With this aim, RISS has recently started the development of a new software, which is an elegant solution to manage and analyse seismic data and to create automatic earthquake bulletins. The software has been initially developed to manage data recorded at the ISNet network (Irpinia Seismic Network), which is a network of seismic stations deployed in Southern Apennines along the active fault system responsible for the 1980, November 23, MS 6.9 Irpinia earthquake. The software, however, is fully exportable and can be used to manage data from different networks, with any kind of station geometry or network configuration and is able to provide reliable estimates of earthquake source parameters, whichever is the background seismicity level of the area of interest. Here we present the real-time automated procedures and the analyses performed by the software package, which is essentially a chain of different modules, each of them aimed at the automatic computation of a specific source parameter. The P-wave arrival times are first detected on the real-time streaming of data and then the software performs the phase association and earthquake binding. As soon as an event is automatically detected by the binder, the earthquake location coordinates and the origin time are rapidly estimated, using a probabilistic, non-linear, exploration algorithm. Then, the software is able to automatically provide three different magnitude estimates. First, the local magnitude (Ml) is computed, using the peak-to-peak amplitude

  5. Using geodetic data to infer the kinematic and mechanical properties of deformation sources on Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii (United States)

    Cervelli, Peter Francis


    Paradoxically, one of the greatest hazards associated with oceanic volcanoes is not volcanic. Rather, it is the potential for catastrophic flank failure resulting in devastating tsunamis, which threaten not just the immediate vicinity, but coastal cities along the entire rim of an ocean basin. Kilauea volcano on the Island of Hawaii, USA, a potential source of such flank failures, is monitored by a network of continuously recording geodetic instruments, including Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers, tiltmeters, and strainmeters. In this thesis, methodology is developed for using these geodetic data to estimate the geometry and type of active deformation sources, such as dikes, magma chambers, and faults. The methodology is then applied to two episodes of deformation that occurred at Kilauea Volcano in 1999 and 2000. First, the deformation associated with an earthquake swarm on September 12, 1999 in the Upper East Rift Zone of Kilauea Volcano, which was recorded by continuous GPS receivers, tiltmeters, campaign GPS, leveling, and InSAR, is analyzed and interpreted as a west to east propagating dike intrusion. Lack of premonitory inflation of Kilauea's summit suggests that the immediate cause of the intrusion was probably tensile failure in the shallow crust of the Upper East Rift, rather than forceful magma injection. Second, in early November 2000, the geodetic network recorded transient southeastward displacements, which we interpret as an episode of aseismic fault slip. The duration of the event was about 36 hours; it had an equivalent moment magnitude of M5.7, and a maximum slip velocity of about 6 cm/day. Inversion of the GPS data images a shallowly dipping thrust at a depth of 4.5 km that we interpret as the down dip extension of the Hilina Pali fault system. Thus it is demonstrated that continuous geodetic networks can detect accelerating slip, potentially leading to warnings of imminent volcanic flank collapse. Finally, in the last chapter of the

  6. Separation of source and site effects in ground motions recorded in the village of Onna during aftershocks of the 2009 April 6, Mw 6.1 L'Aquila earthquake (United States)

    Cantore, Luciana; Rovelli, Antonio; Calderoni, Giovanna


    The village of Onna, a 10 km apart from L'Aquila, central Italy, was dramatically struck by the 2009 April 6, Mw 6.1 earthquake with 80 per cent of buildings collapsed or severely damaged. The high vulnerability of predominantly ancient buildings and the propensity of site geology to amplify ground motion on the Holocene sediments of the Aterno river valley were unanimously thought as responsible for the huge destruction. To quantify site effects in the damaged zone of Onna and study source scaling over a wide magnitude range (2.0 ≤ ML ≤ 5.4), we have used recordings of 20 stations installed in Onna and other villages around L'Aquila. We analyse more than 1000 seismograms of 202 aftershocks occurring up to source-to-receiver distances of 50 km and infer site and source parameters by means of an inversion procedure. The source spectra inferred from the data inversion confirm the large variability in the high-frequency radiation already found by other authors for L'Aquila earthquakes, with Brune stress drops around 10 MPa at the highest magnitudes of the investigated range and spreading mostly between 0.1 and 1 MPa at smaller magnitudes. Moreover, the inversion of our data yields larger amplitudes of empirical transfer functions in the village of Onna confirming the role of the local geology on damage. The site functions of Onna show a common resonance mode around 2.7 Hz, with amplitudes attaining a factor of 4-5. Moreover, we find that the transfer function amplitude does not decrease below 2 in a large high-frequency band above the site resonant frequency, up to more than 10 Hz. This indicates a further broad-band contribution to the ground motion amplification in Onna. In a simulation of the main shock scenario applying the estimated source scaling to aftershock records, Onna results in the highest accelerations among the villages around L'Aquila. In distinct contrast, transfer functions close to unity in the entire frequency band are found for stations

  7. Three-dimensional attenuation imaging of the Irpinia fault zone (Southern Italy): inferences on the fluid storage and earthquake related processes (United States)

    Amoroso, Ortensia; De Landro, Grazia; Russo, Guido; Zollo, Aldo; Garambois, Stephane; Mazzoli, Stefano; Parente, Mariano; Virieux, Jean


    The seismic imaging of crustal wave velocity and attenuation provide useful insights into the possible presence and role of fluids in the volume embedding earthquake causative faults. In particular, they allow constraining the range of rock properties such as porosity, consolidation parameter, type of fluid mixing and relative saturation percentage. Our study is focused on the southern Apennines area that experienced moderate to large earthquakes in the past century, the largest one, the Irpinia MS 6.9 earthquake, occurred on November 23th, 1980. In this study we propose to integrate velocity and attenuation tomographic images for a comprehensive seismic interpretation of the 1980 Irpinia earthquake fault zone that uses well established rock physical laws to retrieve information about porosity and the type of permeating fluids from seismic attributes. We performed an attenuation tomographic inversion, which provided 3-D images of the anelastic attenuation properties in terms of body wave quality factors (Qp and Qs). We analyzed a data set of 4801 t*P and 1833 t*S relative to 670 earthquakes with local magnitude 0.1 ≤ ML ≤ 3.2. We inverted the t* data for Q following a multiscale strategy, progressively increasing the density of grid points describing the attenuation model. The Qp model shows a slight increase of the values with depth, reaching a value of about 1000 in the central part of the model, at depths between 8 and 12 km. The Qs model shows strong lateral variations along a SW-NE section with a major transition occurring in correspondence with the Ms 6.9, 1980 earthquake rupture. Moreover the Qs model well delineates the transition between the Apulian Carbonate platform and the basement at about 7 km depth with an increase of values from 400 to 1000. In order to recover the properties of the host rock volume characterized by a set of micro-parameters (porosity, consolidation parameter, permeating fluid type and percentage of fluid saturation), we

  8. Source depth dependence of micro-tsunamis recorded with ocean-bottom pressure gauges: The January 28, 2000 Mw 6.8 earthquake off Nemuro Peninsula, Japan (United States)

    Hirata, K.; Takahashi, H.; Geist, E.; Satake, K.; Tanioka, Y.; Sugioka, H.; Mikada, H.


    Micro-tsunami waves with a maximum amplitude of 4-6 mm were detected with the ocean-bottom pressure gauges on a cabled deep seafloor observatory south of Hokkaido, Japan, following the January 28, 2000 earthquake (Mw 6.8) in the southern Kuril subduction zone. We model the observed micro-tsunami and estimate the focal depth and other source parameters such as fault length and amount of slip using grid searching with the least-squares method. The source depth and stress drop for the January 2000 earthquake are estimated to be 50 km and 7 MPa, respectively, with possible ranges of 45-55 km and 4-13 MPa. Focal depth of typical inter-plate earthquakes in this region ranges from 10 to 20 km and stress drop of inter-plate earthquakes generally is around 3 MPa. The source depth and stress drop estimates suggest that the earthquake was an intra-slab event in the subducting Pacific plate, rather than an inter-plate event. In addition, for a prescribed fault width of 30 km, the fault length is estimated to be 15 km, with possible ranges of 10-20 km, which is the same as the previously determined aftershock distribution. The corresponding estimate for seismic moment is 2.7x1019 Nm with possible ranges of 2.3x1019-3.2x1019Nm. Standard tide gauges along the nearby coast did not record any tsunami signal. High-precision ocean-bottom pressure measurements offshore thus make it possible to determine fault parameters of moderate-sized earthquakes in subduction zones using open-ocean tsunami waveforms. Published by Elsevier Science B. V.

  9. Active tectonics along the submarine slope of south-eastern Sicily and the source of the 11 January 1693 earthquake and tsunami

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Argnani


    Full Text Available South-eastern Sicily has been affected by large historical earthquakes, including the 11 January 1693 earthquake, considered the largest magnitude earthquake in the history of Italy (Mw = 7.4. This earthquake was accompanied by a large tsunami (tsunami magnitude 2.3 in the Murty-Loomis scale adopted in the Italian tsunami catalogue by Tinti et al., 2004, suggesting a source in the near offshore. The fault system of the eastern Sicily slope is characterised by NNW–SSE-trending east-dipping extensional faults active in the Quaternary. The geometry of a fault that appears currently active has been derived from the interpretation of seismic data, and has been used for modelling the tsunamigenic source. Synthetic tide-gauge records from modelling this fault source indicate that the first tsunami wave polarity is negative (sea retreat in almost all the coastal nodes of eastern Sicily, in agreement with historical observations. The outcomes of the numerical simulations also indicate that the coastal stretch running from Catania to Siracusa suffered the strongest tsunami impact, and that the highest tsunami waves occurred in Augusta, aslo in agreement with the historical accounts. A large-size submarine slide (almost 5 km3 has also been identified along the slope, affecting the footwall of the active fault. Modelling indicates that this slide gives non-negligible tsunami signals along the coast; though not enough to match the historical observations for the 1693 tsunami event. The earthquake alone or a combination of earthquake faulting and slide can possibly account for the large run up waves reported for the 11 January 1693 event.

  10. The 2015 Gorkha (Nepal) earthquake sequence: I. Source modeling and deterministic 3D ground shaking (United States)

    Wei, Shengji; Chen, Meng; Wang, Xin; Graves, Robert; Lindsey, Eric; Wang, Teng; Karakaş, Çağıl; Helmberger, Don


    To better quantify the relatively long period (earthquake sequence, we study the finite rupture processes and the associated 3D ground motion of the Mw7.8 mainshock and the Mw7.2 aftershock. The 3D synthetics are then used in the broadband ground shaking in Kathmandu with a hybrid approach, summarized in a companion paper (Chen and Wei, 2017, submitted together). We determined the coseismic rupture process of the mainshock by joint inversion of InSAR/SAR, GPS (static and high-rate), strong motion and teleseismic waveforms. Our inversion for the mainshock indicates unilateral rupture towards the ESE, with an average rupture speed of 3.0 km/s and a total duration of 60 s. Additionally, we find that the beginning part of the rupture (5-18 s) has about 40% longer rise time than the rest of the rupture, as well as slower rupture velocity. Our model shows two strong asperities occurring 24 s and 36 s after the origin and located 30 km to the northwest and northeast of the Kathmandu valley, respectively. In contrast, the Mw7.2 aftershock is more compact both in time and space, as revealed by joint inversion of teleseismic body waves and InSAR data. The different rupture features between the mainshock and the aftershock could be related to difference in fault zone structure. The mainshock and aftershock ground motions in the Kathmandu valley, recorded by both strong motion and high-rate GPS stations, exhibited strong amplification around 0.2 Hz. A simplified 3D basin model, calibrated by an Mw5.2 aftershock, can match the observed waveforms reasonably well at 0.3 Hz and lower frequency. The 3D simulations indicate that the basin structure trapped the wavefield and produced an extensive ground vibration. Our study suggests that the combination of rupture characteristics and propagational complexity are required to understand the ground shaking produced by hazardous earthquakes such as the Gorkha event.

  11. Model and parametric uncertainty in source-based kinematic models of earthquake ground motion (United States)

    Hartzell, Stephen; Frankel, Arthur; Liu, Pengcheng; Zeng, Yuehua; Rahman, Shariftur


    Four independent ground-motion simulation codes are used to model the strong ground motion for three earthquakes: 1994 Mw 6.7 Northridge, 1989 Mw 6.9 Loma Prieta, and 1999 Mw 7.5 Izmit. These 12 sets of synthetics are used to make estimates of the variability in ground-motion predictions. In addition, ground-motion predictions over a grid of sites are used to estimate parametric uncertainty for changes in rupture velocity. We find that the combined model uncertainty and random variability of the simulations is in the same range as the variability of regional empirical ground-motion data sets. The majority of the standard deviations lie between 0.5 and 0.7 natural-log units for response spectra and 0.5 and 0.8 for Fourier spectra. The estimate of model epistemic uncertainty, based on the different model predictions, lies between 0.2 and 0.4, which is about one-half of the estimates for the standard deviation of the combined model uncertainty and random variability. Parametric uncertainty, based on variation of just the average rupture velocity, is shown to be consistent in amplitude with previous estimates, showing percentage changes in ground motion from 50% to 300% when rupture velocity changes from 2.5 to 2.9 km/s. In addition, there is some evidence that mean biases can be reduced by averaging ground-motion estimates from different methods.

  12. New approach of determinations of earthquake moment magnitude using near earthquake source duration and maximum displacement amplitude of high frequency energy radiation (United States)

    Gunawan, H.; Puspito, N. T.; Ibrahim, G.; Harjadi, P. J. P.


    The new approach method to determine the magnitude by using amplitude displacement relationship (A), epicenter distance (Δ) and duration of high frequency radiation (t) has been investigated for Tasikmalaya earthquake, on September 2, 2009, and their aftershock. Moment magnitude scale commonly used seismic surface waves with the teleseismic range of the period is greater than 200 seconds or a moment magnitude of the P wave using teleseismic seismogram data and the range of 10-60 seconds. In this research techniques have been developed a new approach to determine the displacement amplitude and duration of high frequency radiation using near earthquake. Determination of the duration of high frequency using half of period of P waves on the seismograms displacement. This is due tothe very complex rupture process in the near earthquake. Seismic data of the P wave mixing with other wave (S wave) before the duration runs out, so it is difficult to separate or determined the final of P-wave. Application of the 68 earthquakes recorded by station of CISI, Garut West Java, the following relationship is obtained: Mw = 0.78 log (A) + 0.83 log Δ + 0.69 log (t) + 6.46 with: A (m), d (km) and t (second). Moment magnitude of this new approach is quite reliable, time processing faster so useful for early warning.

  13. New approach of determinations of earthquake moment magnitude using near earthquake source duration and maximum displacement amplitude of high frequency energy radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gunawan, H.; Puspito, N. T.; Ibrahim, G.; Harjadi, P. J. P.


    The new approach method to determine the magnitude by using amplitude displacement relationship (A), epicenter distance (Δ) and duration of high frequency radiation (t) has been investigated for Tasikmalaya earthquake, on September 2, 2009, and their aftershock. Moment magnitude scale commonly used seismic surface waves with the teleseismic range of the period is greater than 200 seconds or a moment magnitude of the P wave using teleseismic seismogram data and the range of 10-60 seconds. In this research techniques have been developed a new approach to determine the displacement amplitude and duration of high frequency radiation using near earthquake. Determination of the duration of high frequency using half of period of P waves on the seismograms displacement. This is due tothe very complex rupture process in the near earthquake. Seismic data of the P wave mixing with other wave (S wave) before the duration runs out, so it is difficult to separate or determined the final of P-wave. Application of the 68 earthquakes recorded by station of CISI, Garut West Java, the following relationship is obtained: Mw = 0.78 log (A) + 0.83 log Δ+ 0.69 log (t) + 6.46 with: A (m), d (km) and t (second). Moment magnitude of this new approach is quite reliable, time processing faster so useful for early warning.

  14. New approach of determinations of earthquake moment magnitude using near earthquake source duration and maximum displacement amplitude of high frequency energy radiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gunawan, H.; Puspito, N. T.; Ibrahim, G.; Harjadi, P. J. P. [ITB, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Tecnology (Indonesia); BMKG (Indonesia)


    The new approach method to determine the magnitude by using amplitude displacement relationship (A), epicenter distance ({Delta}) and duration of high frequency radiation (t) has been investigated for Tasikmalaya earthquake, on September 2, 2009, and their aftershock. Moment magnitude scale commonly used seismic surface waves with the teleseismic range of the period is greater than 200 seconds or a moment magnitude of the P wave using teleseismic seismogram data and the range of 10-60 seconds. In this research techniques have been developed a new approach to determine the displacement amplitude and duration of high frequency radiation using near earthquake. Determination of the duration of high frequency using half of period of P waves on the seismograms displacement. This is due tothe very complex rupture process in the near earthquake. Seismic data of the P wave mixing with other wave (S wave) before the duration runs out, so it is difficult to separate or determined the final of P-wave. Application of the 68 earthquakes recorded by station of CISI, Garut West Java, the following relationship is obtained: Mw = 0.78 log (A) + 0.83 log {Delta}+ 0.69 log (t) + 6.46 with: A (m), d (km) and t (second). Moment magnitude of this new approach is quite reliable, time processing faster so useful for early warning.

  15. Quantifying the Earthquake Clustering that Independent Sources with Stationary Rates (as Included in Current Risk Models) Can Produce. (United States)

    Fitzenz, D. D.; Nyst, M.; Apel, E. V.; Muir-Wood, R.


    The recent Canterbury earthquake sequence (CES) renewed public and academic awareness concerning the clustered nature of seismicity. Multiple event occurrence in short time and space intervals is reminiscent of aftershock sequences, but aftershock is a statistical definition, not a label one can give an earthquake in real-time. Aftershocks are defined collectively as what creates the Omori event rate decay after a large event or are defined as what is taken away as "dependent events" using a declustering method. It is noteworthy that depending on the declustering method used on the Canterbury earthquake sequence, the number of independent events varies a lot. This lack of unambiguous definition of aftershocks leads to the need to investigate the amount of clustering inherent in "declustered" risk models. This is the task we concentrate on in this contribution. We start from a background source model for the Canterbury region, in which 1) centroids of events of given magnitude are distributed using a latin-hypercube lattice, 2) following the range of preferential orientations determined from stress maps and focal mechanism, 3) with length determined using the local scaling relationship and 4) rates from a and b values derived from the declustered pre-2010 catalog. We then proceed to create tens of thousands of realizations of 6 to 20 year periods, and we define criteria to identify which successions of events in the region would be perceived as a sequence. Note that the spatial clustering expected is a lower end compared to a fully uniform distribution of events. Then we perform the same exercise with rates and b-values determined from the catalog including the CES. If the pre-2010 catalog was long (or rich) enough, then the computed "stationary" rates calculated from it would include the CES declustered events (by construction, regardless of the physical meaning of or relationship between those events). In regions of low seismicity rate (e.g., Canterbury before

  16. Tsunami Source Inversion Using Tide Gauge and DART Tsunami Waveforms of the 2017 Mw8.2 Mexico Earthquake (United States)

    Adriano, Bruno; Fujii, Yushiro; Koshimura, Shunichi; Mas, Erick; Ruiz-Angulo, Angel; Estrada, Miguel


    On September 8, 2017 (UTC), a normal-fault earthquake occurred 87 km off the southeast coast of Mexico. This earthquake generated a tsunami that was recorded at coastal tide gauge and offshore buoy stations. First, we conducted a numerical tsunami simulation using a single-fault model to understand the tsunami characteristics near the rupture area, focusing on the nearby tide gauge stations. Second, the tsunami source of this event was estimated from inversion of tsunami waveforms recorded at six coastal stations and three buoys located in the deep ocean. Using the aftershock distribution within 1 day following the main shock, the fault plane orientation had a northeast dip direction (strike = 320°, dip = 77°, and rake =-92°). The results of the tsunami waveform inversion revealed that the fault area was 240 km × 90 km in size with most of the largest slip occurring on the middle and deepest segments of the fault. The maximum slip was 6.03 m from a 30 × 30 km2 segment that was 64.82 km deep at the center of the fault area. The estimated slip distribution showed that the main asperity was at the center of the fault area. The second asperity with an average slip of 5.5 m was found on the northwest-most segments. The estimated slip distribution yielded a seismic moment of 2.9 × 10^{21} Nm (Mw = 8.24), which was calculated assuming an average rigidity of 7× 10^{10} N/m2.

  17. The 1977 Three Kings Ridge earthquake ( Ms = 6.7): broad-band aspect of the source rupture (United States)

    Tajima, Fumiko; Okal, Emile A.


    The 1977 Three Kings Ridge earthquake ( Ms = 6.7) is an isolated event which took place in the South Fiji Basin. The centroid moment tensor (CMT) solution by the Harvard group shows a left-lateral strike-slip motion with a dip angle of 55° while the P-wave first motions require a nearly vertical fault plane. The centroid depth 17.4 km is deeper than the bottom of ordinary oceanic crust. Using long-period P and SH waveforms from the Worldwide Standardized Seismograph Network, we model the entire source rupture process with three subevents which span a 42 s duration. The best-fit double-couple focal mechanism obtained from the tensorial sum of the subevents is primarily a strike-slip with a nearly vertical fault plane subparallel to the Cook Fracture zone. The total moment release is (2.2-2.3) × 10 26 dyn cm, which is about 40% lower than the CMT estimate. The subevents' depth distribution is similar to the centroid depth (17 km), which is deeper than a typical oceanic Moho. Precise modeling of the waveform is also incompatible with a standard oceanic crustal structure, lending support to previous interpretations of the Three Kings Ridge as a fossil island arc. The discrepancy between our body waveform moment tensor solution and the Harvard CMT solution is dominated by the tensor components Mrθ and Mrθ. In the case of a shallow source, these components are notoriously unresolvable because of their vanishing excitation of seismic waves in the low-frequency range ( T ⩾ 45 s). However, the low-pass filtered body waves can be better modeled with a dip angle similar to that of the CMT solution. This observation suggests that the source process may include some level of evolution of the rupture mechanism with time. We interpret the earthquake as expressing a moderate level of internal deformation of the Australian plate, in the context of significantly different spreading rates in the Lau and Havre Basins.

  18. Source parameters of weak crustal earthquakes of the Vrancea region from short-period waveform inversion

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ardeleanu, L.; Radulian, M.; Šílený, Jan; Panza, G. F.


    Roč. 162, č. 3 (2005), s. 495-513 ISSN 0033-4553 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/02/0383 Grant - others:UNESCO-IGCP(XX) 414; NATO(XX) SfP 972266 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30120515 Keywords : point source approximation * seismic moment tensor * source time function Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 0.975, year: 2005

  19. Source models for the 2016 Mw6.0 Hutubi earthquake, Xinjiang, China: A possible reverse event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gang Liu


    Full Text Available South and north-dipping nodal planes from the U.S. Geological Survey moment tensor solution were used to invert global teleseismic body waves to reveal the source rupture process of the December 8, 2016, Mw6.0 Hutubi earthquake. The results show that a compact pattern is the main feature of this event for only one main slip zone located at the hypocenter for both models. The slip distributions are dominated by a nearly pure-thrust fault, and there is no apparent surface rupture. The inversion revealed that the slip zone extends 10 km along strike and 12 km along dip. The released total seismic moment was about 9.0 × 1017 Nm, corresponding to a magnitude of Mw6.0. It is difficult to solve for a best-fit rupture plane due to the sample slip pattern without obvious rupture directivity. This makes the far-field teleseismic data not sensitive enough to determine the fault geometric parameters. The source model of the reverse north-dipping plane fits well with the observed waveforms, and the results of the aftershock relocation outline a trend of north-dipping profiles, indicating the possibility of a reverse event. The inverted normal fault beneath the Qigu fold, interpreted by geological and seismic studies, may be the seismogenic fault for this reverse event.

  20. Earthquake Triggering Inferred from Rupture Histories, DInSAR Ground Deformation and Stress-Transfer Modelling: The Case of Central Italy During August 2016-January 2017 (United States)

    Papadopoulos, G. A.; Ganas, A.; Agalos, A.; Papageorgiou, A.; Triantafyllou, I.; Kontoes, Ch.; Papoutsis, I.; Diakogianni, G.


    On August 24, October 26 and 30, 2016, Central Apennines (Italy) were hit by three shallow, normal faulting very strong earthquakes rupturing in an NW-SE striking zone. Event 3 (Norcia) occurred between event 1 (Amatrice) at the SE and event 2 (Visso) at the NW of the entire rupture zone. The rupture histories of the three events, as revealed by teleseismic P-wave inversion, showed that all were characterized by bilateral rupture process with stronger rupture directivity towards NW for events 1 and 3 and towards SSE for event 2. Maximum seismic slip of 1.2, 0.8, and 1.4 m in the hypocenter and magnitude of M w 6.2, 6.1, and 6.5 were calculated for the three events, respectively. DInSaR measurements based on Sentinel-1 and 2 satellite images showed ground deformation directivity from events 1 and 2 towards event 3, which is consistent with the rupture process directivity. For events 1, 2, and 3, the maximum ground subsidence was found equal to 0.2, 0.15, and 0.35 m. Based on rupture directivity and ground deformation pattern, we put forward the hypothesis that the area of the second event was stress loaded by the first one and that both the first and second earthquake events caused stress loading in the area, where the third event ruptured. Coulomb stress-transfer modelling yields strong evidence in favor of our hypothesis. The stress in the fault plane of event 2 was increased by 0.19 bars due to loading from event 1. Event 3 fault plane was loaded by an amount of 2 bars, due to the combined stress transfer from the two previous events, despite its proximity to the negative/positive lobe boundary. The three events produced combined stress loading of more than +0.5 bar along the Apennines to the NW and SE of the entire rupture zone. In the SE stress lobe, a series of strong earthquakes of M w 5.3, 5.6, and 5.7 occurred on January 18, 2017, but likely, seismic potential remains in the area. We consider that in the NW and more extensive stress lobe, the seismic

  1. Smartphone-Based Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning in Chile (United States)

    Brooks, B. A.; Baez, J. C.; Ericksen, T.; Barrientos, S. E.; Minson, S. E.; Duncan, C.; Guillemot, C.; Smith, D.; Boese, M.; Cochran, E. S.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Glennie, C. L.; Dueitt, J.; Parra, H.


    Many locations around the world face high seismic hazard, but do not have the resources required to establish traditional earthquake and tsunami warning systems (E/TEW) that utilize scientific grade seismological sensors. MEMs accelerometers and GPS chips embedded in, or added inexpensively to, smartphones are sensitive enough to provide robust E/TEW if they are deployed in sufficient numbers. We report on a pilot project in Chile, one of the most productive earthquake regions world-wide. There, magnitude 7.5+ earthquakes occurring roughly every 1.5 years and larger tsunamigenic events pose significant local and trans-Pacific hazard. The smartphone-based network described here is being deployed in parallel to the build-out of a scientific-grade network for E/TEW. Our sensor package comprises a smartphone with internal MEMS and an external GPS chipset that provides satellite-based augmented positioning and phase-smoothing. Each station is independent of local infrastructure, they are solar-powered and rely on cellular SIM cards for communications. An Android app performs initial onboard processing and transmits both accelerometer and GPS data to a server employing the FinDer-BEFORES algorithm to detect earthquakes, producing an acceleration-based line source model for smaller magnitude earthquakes or a joint seismic-geodetic finite-fault distributed slip model for sufficiently large magnitude earthquakes. Either source model provides accurate ground shaking forecasts, while distributed slip models for larger offshore earthquakes can be used to infer seafloor deformation for local tsunami warning. The network will comprise 50 stations by Sept. 2016 and 100 stations by Dec. 2016. Since Nov. 2015, batch processing has detected, located, and estimated the magnitude for Mw>5 earthquakes. Operational since June, 2016, we have successfully detected two earthquakes > M5 (M5.5, M5.1) that occurred within 100km of our network while producing zero false alarms.

  2. Source parameters of the weak earthquakes in the Vrancea foredeep area

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ardeleanu, L.; Radulian, M.; Šílený, Jan; Panza, G. F.


    Roč. 44, - (2000), s. 57-69 ISSN 1220-5303 Grant - others:NATO(XX) ENVIR.LG.960916; Copernicus(BE) ERBCIPACT 940238; UNESCO(XX) IGCP No.414 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3012916 Keywords : source parameters * waveform inversion * Vrancea * Romania Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure

  3. Estimates of source parameters of 4.9 Kharsali earthquake using ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The time series of ground motion have been computed for recording sites using geometric ray theory and Green's function approach.The method for computing time series consists in integrating the far-field contributions of Green's function for a number of distributed point source.The generated waveforms have been ...

  4. Source mechanisms of the 2004 Baladeh (Iran) earthquake sequence from Iranian broadband and short-period data and seismotectonic implications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Donner, S.; Rössler, Dirk; Krüger, F.

    -SSW oriented shortening. On 28th of May 2004 the Mw 6.3 Baladeh earthquake hit the north-central Alborz Mountains. It is one of the rare and large events in this region in modern time and thus a seldom chance to study earthquake mechanisms and the local ongoing deformation processes. It also demonstrated...

  5. Comparison of Earthquake Damage Patterns and Shallow-Depth Vs Structure Across the Napa Valley, Inferred From Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves (MASW) and Multichannel Analysis of Love Waves (MALW) Modeling of Basin-Wide Seismic Profiles (United States)

    Chan, J. H.; Catchings, R.; Strayer, L. M.; Goldman, M.; Criley, C.; Sickler, R. R.; Boatwright, J.


    We conducted an active-source seismic investigation across the Napa Valley (Napa Valley Seismic Investigation-16) in September of 2016 consisting of two basin-wide seismic profiles; one profile was 20 km long and N-S-trending (338°), and the other 15 km long and E-W-trending (80°) (see Catchings et al., 2017). Data from the NVSI-16 seismic investigation were recorded using a total of 666 vertical- and horizontal-component seismographs, spaced 100 m apart on both seismic profiles. Seismic sources were generated by a total of 36 buried explosions spaced 1 km apart. The two seismic profiles intersected in downtown Napa, where a large number of buildings were red-tagged by the City following the 24 August 2014 Mw 6.0 South Napa earthquake. From the recorded Rayleigh and Love waves, we developed 2-Dimensional S-wave velocity models to depths of about 0.5 km using the multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) method. Our MASW (Rayleigh) and MALW (Love) models show two prominent low-velocity (Vs = 350 to 1300 m/s) sub-basins that were also previously identified from gravity studies (Langenheim et al., 2010). These basins trend N-W and also coincide with the locations of more than 1500 red- and yellow-tagged buildings within the City of Napa that were tagged after the 2014 South Napa earthquake. The observed correlation between low-Vs, deep basins, and the red-and yellow-tagged buildings in Napa suggests similar large-scale seismic investigations can be performed. These correlations provide insights into the likely locations of significant structural damage resulting from future earthquakes that occur adjacent to or within sedimentary basins.

  6. Global Compilation of InSAR Earthquake Source Models: Comparisons with Seismic Catalogues and the Effects of 3D Earth Structure (United States)

    Weston, J. M.; Ferreira, A. M.; Funning, G. J.


    While past progress in seismology led to extensive earthquake catalogues such as the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalogue, recent advances in space geodesy have enabled earthquake parameter estimations from the measurement of the deformation of the Earth’s surface, notably using InSAR data. Many earthquakes have now been studied using InSAR, but a full assessment of the quality and of the additional value of these source parameters compared to traditional seismological techniques is still lacking. In this study we present results of systematic comparisons between earthquake CMT parameters determined using InSAR and seismic data, on a global scale. We compiled a large database of source parameters obtained using InSAR data from the literature and estimated the corresponding CMT parameters into a ICMT compilation. We here present results from the analysis of 58 earthquakes that occurred between 1992-2007 from about 80 published InSAR studies. Multiple studies of the same earthquake are included in the archive, as they are valuable to assess uncertainties. Where faults are segmented, with changes in width along-strike, a weighted average based on the seismic moment in each fault has been used to determine overall earthquake parameters. For variable slip models, we have calculated source parameters taking the spatial distribution of slip into account. The parameters in our ICMT compilation are compared with those taken from the Global CMT (GCMT), ISC, EHB and NEIC catalogues. We find that earthquake fault strike, dip and rake values in the GCMT and ICMT archives are generally compatible with each other. Likewise, the differences in seismic moment in these two archives are relatively small. However, the locations of the centroid epicentres show substantial discrepancies, which are larger when comparing with GCMT locations (10-30km differences) than for EHB, ISC and NEIC locations (5-15km differences). Since InSAR data have a high spatial resolution, and thus

  7. An exploratory study for rapid estimation of critical source parameters of great subduction-zone earthquakes in Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Singh, S. K; Perez-Campos, X, Iglesias, A; Pacheco, J. F [Instituto de Geofisica, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico D.F. (Mexico)


    The rapid and reliable estimation of moment magnitude M{sub w}, location, and size of rupture area, and radiated energy E{sub s} of great Mexican subduction zone earthquakes is critical for a quick assessment of tsunami and/or damage potential of the event and for issuing an early tsunami alert. To accomplish this goal, the Mexican broadband seismic network needs to be supplemented by permanent GPS stations along the Pacific coast, spaced about 65 km apart or less. The data from the GPS network must be transmitted to a central location and processed in near-real time to track the position of the stations. Assuming that this can be implemented, we develop a procedure for near-real time estimation of the critical source parameters. We demonstrate the viability of the procedure by processing near-source GPS data and regional seismograms for the earthquakes of Colima-Jalisco in 1995 (M{sub w}=8.0) and Sumatra-Andaman in 2004 (M{sub w}=9.0-9.3). The procedure yields estimates of M{sub w} and E{sub s} in excellent agreement with those reported from earlier solutions. In the case of the Colima-Jalisco earthquake, the estimated location and size of rupture area agree with that mapped from aftershock locations. Presently, there are 13 permanent GPS stations along the Pacific coast of Mexico with an average spacing of {approx}200 km which operate in an autonomous mode. It is urgent to increase the number of stations to {>=}28 thus decreasing the spacing of stations to {<=}65 km. Data must be transmitted in near-real time to a central station to track the position of the stations, preferably every second. [Spanish] Para una estimacion oportuna del potencial de dano y tsunami asociado a los grandes temblores de subduccion en Mexico, resulta critica la determinacion rapida y confiable de parametros sismologicos como lo son la magnitud de momento (M{sub w}), la energia sismica radiada (E{sub s}) y la localizacion y el tamano de la ruptura. Para alcanzar este objetivo, la red

  8. Source model of the 1703 Genroku Kanto earthquake tsunami based on historical documents and numerical simulations: modeling of an offshore fault along the Sagami Trough (United States)

    Yanagisawa, Hideaki; Goto, Kazuhisa


    The 1703 Genroku Kanto earthquake and the resulting tsunami caused catastrophic damage in the Kanto region of Japan. Previous modeling of the 1703 earthquake applied inversion analyses of the observed terrestrial crustal deformations along the coast of the southern Boso Peninsula and revealed that the tsunami was generated along the Sagami Trough. Although these models readily explained the observed crustal deformation, they were unable to model an offshore fault along the Sagami Trough because of difficulties related to the distance of the offshore fault from the shoreline. In addition, information regarding the terrestrial crustal deformation is insufficient to constrain such inverted models. To model an offshore fault and investigate the triggering of large tsunamis off the Pacific coast of the Boso Peninsula, we studied historical documents related to the 1703 tsunami from Choshi City. Based on these historical documents, we estimated tsunami heights of ≥5.9, 11.4-11.7, ≥7.7, 10.8 and ≥4.8 m for the Choshi City regions of Isejiga- ura, Kobatake- ike, Nagasaki, Tokawa and Na'arai, respectively. Although previous studies assumed that the tsunami heights ranged from 3.0 to 4.0 m in Choshi City, we revealed that the tsunami reached heights exceeded 11 m in the city. We further studied the fault model of the 1703 Genroku Kanto earthquake numerically using the newly obtained tsunami height data. Consequently, we determined that the source of the 1703 earthquake was a 120-km-long offshore fault along the Sagami Trough, which is in close proximity to the Japan Trench. Our results suggest that earthquake energies resulting in magnitudes greater than Mw 8.32 along the entire length of the Sagami Trough could have been released during the 1703 Genroku Kanto earthquake.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  9. Groundwater-related Land Deformation over the Mega Aquifer System in Saudi Arabia: Inferences from InSAR, GRACE, Earthquake records, Field, and Spatial Data Analysis. (United States)

    Othman, A.; Sultan, M.; Becker, R.; Sefry, S.; Alharbi, T.; Alharbi, H.; Gebremichael, E.


    Land deformational features (subsidence, and earth fissures, etc.) are being reported from many locations over the Lower Mega Aquifer System (LMAS) in the central and northern parts of Saudi Arabia. We applied an integrated approach (remote sensing, geodesy, GIS, geology, hydrogeology, and geotechnical) to identify nature, intensity, spatial distribution, and factors controlling the observed deformation. A three-fold approach was adopted to accomplish the following: (1) investigate, identify, and verify the land deformation through fieldwork; (2) assess the spatial and temporal distribution of land deformation and quantify deformation rates using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) methods (period: 2003 to 2012); (3) generate a GIS database to host all relevant data and derived products (remote sensing, geology, geotechnical, GPS, groundwater extraction rates, and water levels, etc.) and to correlate these spatial and temporal datasets in search of causal effects. The following observations are consistent with deformational features being caused by excessive groundwater extraction: (1) distribution of deformational features correlated spatially and temporally with increased agricultural development and groundwater extraction, and with the decline in groundwater levels and storage; (2) earthquake events (1.5 - 5.5 M) increased from one event at the beginning of the agricultural development program in 1980 (average annual extraction [ANE]: 1-2 km³/yr), to 13 events per year between 1995 to 2005, the decade that witnessed the largest expansion in groundwater extraction (ANE: >6.4 km³) and land reclamation using groundwater resources; and (3) earthquake epicenters and the deformation sites are found largely within areas bound by the Kahf fault system suggesting that faults play a key role in the deformation phenomenon. Findings from the PSI investigation revealed high, yet irregularly distributed, subsidence

  10. Determination of the earthquake source parameters using W-Phase inversion method and its uses for tsunami modelling (United States)

    Kesumastuti, Lintang; Marsono, Agus; Yatimantoro, Tatok; Pribadi, Sugeng


    This study performed W-Phase inversion for eight events with large magnitude (M>7) that occured in Indonesia for the period of 2006-2016 by using global data obtained from IRIS DMC (Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology Data Management Center). The results of W-Phase inversion; both moment magnitude and focal mechanism were generally similar with the Global CMT (Centroid Moment Tensor) solutions. The result shows that maximum deviation of moment magnitude was 0,09 and the average of magnitudo deviation was 0.03625. Comparison of moment magnitude (Mw) indicates that seismic moments from Global CMT and W-Phase inversion are larger than that from body waves, especially for the 2010 Mentawai earthquake. Tsunami simulation was performed using two different source parameters and sea floor deformation, from Global CMT and W-Phase inversion to get arrival times and heights on the coasts to be validated by observation tide gauge data from IOC (Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission). The simulation shows that these two models; Global CMT and W-Phase inversion yields similar tsunami arrival times and heights on the coasts, but they have a bit difference with the observation data for some tide gauge station.

  11. Estimation of Earthquake Source Properties Along the East African Rift Using Full Waveforms (United States)

    Baker, B.; Roecker, S. W.


    Recently, the Continental Rifting in Africa: Fluids-Tectonic Interaction (CRAFTI) experiment was conducted in northern Tanzania and southern Kenya as a means to better evaluate the effect of tectonic and magmatic strain along the east African rift. Towards this goal S. Roecker has computed a 3D structural model by joint inversion of gravity, local seismic body wave, and surface wave data. The joint inversion in turn produces a quality estimate of the compressional, shear, and density structure in the region. In the process of tomography of local body wave data it was observed that there exist some anomalously deep seismic events. To better quantify these events we look towards waveform modeling in this new and laterally heterogeneous structural model. It is thought that better quantification of later arriving direct and scattered phases will provide better resolved estimates of the event locations and lower the trade-off between source time and depth uncertainty inherent in travel time inversions. Since our main objective is testing the validity of seismic depths in the travel time inversion we will favor a grid search based approach around the current hypocenters using a method similar Zhao, 2006. To expedite processing, we make use of seismic reciprocity and save the strain wave fields produced by impulsive sources at receiver locations in the vicinity of the initial hypocenters. We then perform a moment tensor inversion at each location around the hypocenter, estimate the corresponding source time function, compute the resulting synthetics, and finally calculate a cumulative waveform misfit objective function for all stations. It is thought this procedure should well sample the objective function in the neighborhood of the initial hypocenters and thereby provide an avenue for resolution analysis of the event depths.

  12. Long Period (LP) volcanic earthquake source location at Merapi volcano by using dense array technics (United States)

    Metaxian, Jean Philippe; Budi Santoso, Agus; Laurin, Antoine; Subandriyo, Subandriyo; Widyoyudo, Wiku; Arshab, Ghofar


    Since 2010, Merapi shows unusual activity compared to last decades. Powerful phreatic explosions are observed; some of them are preceded by LP signals. In the literature, LP seismicity is thought to be originated within the fluid, and therefore to be representative of the pressurization state of the volcano plumbing system. Another model suggests that LP events are caused by slow, quasi-brittle, low stress-drop failure driven by transient upper-edifice deformations. Knowledge of the spatial distribution of LP events is fundamental for better understanding the physical processes occurring in the conduit, as well as for the monitoring and the improvement of eruption forecasting. LP events recorded at Merapi have a spectral content dominated by frequencies between 0.8 and 3 Hz. To locate the source of these events, we installed a seismic antenna composed of 4 broadband CMG-6TD Güralp stations. This network has an aperture of 300 m. It is located on the site of Pasarbubar, between 500 and 800 m from the crater rim. Two multi-parameter stations (seismic, tiltmeter, S-P) located in the same area, equipped with broadband CMG-40T Güralp sensors may also be used to complete the data of the antenna. The source of LP events is located by using different approaches. In the first one, we used a method based on the measurement of the time delays between the early beginnings of LP events for each array receiver. The observed differences of time delays obtained for each pair of receivers are compared to theoretical values calculated from the travel times computed between grid nodes, which are positioned in the structure, and each receiver. In a second approach, we estimate the slowness vector by using MUSIC algorithm applied to 3-components data. From the slowness vector, we deduce the back-azimuth and the incident angle, which give an estimation of LP source depth in the conduit. This work is part of the Domerapi project funded by French Agence Nationale de la Recherche (https

  13. Source process of the MW7.8 2016 Kaikoura earthquake in New Zealand and the characteristics of the near-fault strong ground motion (United States)

    Meng, L.; Zang, Y.; Zhou, L.; Han, Y.


    The MW7.8 New Zealand earthquake of 2016 occurred near the Kaikoura area in the South Island, New Zealand with the epicenter of 173.13°E and 42.78°S. The MW7.8 Kaikoura earthquake occurred on the transform boundary faults between the Pacific plate and the Australian plate and with the thrust focal mechanism solution. The Kaikoura earthquake is a complex event because the significant difference, especially between the magnitude, seismic moment, radiated energy and the casualties. Only two people were killed, and twenty people injured and no more than twenty buildings are destroyed during this earthquake, the damage level is not so severe in consideration about the huge magnitude. We analyzed the rupture process according to the source parameters, it can be confirmed that the radiated energy and the apparent stress of the Kaikoura earthquake are small and minor. The results indicate a frictional overshoot behavior in the dynamic source process of Kaikoura earthquake, which is actually with sufficient rupture and more affluent moderate aftershocks. It is also found that the observed horizontal Peak Ground Acceleration of the strong ground motion is generally small comparing with the Next Generation Attenuation relationship. We further studied the characteristics of the observed horizontal PGAs at the 6 near fault stations, which are located in the area less than 10 km to the main fault. The relatively high level strong ground motion from the 6 stations may be produced by the higher slip around the asperity area rather than the initial rupture position on the main plane. Actually, the huge surface displacement at the northern of the rupture fault plane indicated why aftershocks are concentrated in the north. And there are more damage in Wellington than in Christchurch, even which is near the south of the epicenter. In conclusion, the less damage level of Kaikoura earthquake in New Zealand may probably because of the smaller strong ground motion and the rare

  14. Geomorphic legacy of medieval Himalayan earthquakes in the Pokhara Valley (United States)

    Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Bernhardt, Anne; Stolle, Amelie; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R.; Andermann, Christoff; Tofelde, Stefanie; Merchel, Silke; Rugel, Georg; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver


    The Himalayas and their foreland belong to the world's most earthquake-prone regions. With millions of people at risk from severe ground shaking and associated damages, reliable data on the spatial and temporal occurrence of past major earthquakes is urgently needed to inform seismic risk analysis. Beyond the instrumental record such information has been largely based on historical accounts and trench studies. Written records provide evidence for damages and fatalities, yet are difficult to interpret when derived from the far-field. Trench studies, in turn, offer information on rupture histories, lengths and displacements along faults but involve high chronological uncertainties and fail to record earthquakes that do not rupture the surface. Thus, additional and independent information is required for developing reliable earthquake histories. Here, we present exceptionally well-dated evidence of catastrophic valley infill in the Pokhara Valley, Nepal. Bayesian calibration of radiocarbon dates from peat beds, plant macrofossils, and humic silts in fine-grained tributary sediments yields a robust age distribution that matches the timing of nearby M>8 earthquakes in ~1100, 1255, and 1344 AD. The upstream dip of tributary valley fills and X-ray fluorescence spectrometry of their provenance rule out local sediment sources. Instead, geomorphic and sedimentary evidence is consistent with catastrophic fluvial aggradation and debris flows that had plugged several tributaries with tens of meters of calcareous sediment from the Annapurna Massif >60 km away. The landscape-changing consequences of past large Himalayan earthquakes have so far been elusive. Catastrophic aggradation in the wake of two historically documented medieval earthquakes and one inferred from trench studies underscores that Himalayan valley fills should be considered as potential archives of past earthquakes. Such valley fills are pervasive in the Lesser Himalaya though high erosion rates reduce

  15. Evaluation and implementation of an improved methodology for earthquake ground response analysis : uniform treatment source, path and site effects. (United States)


    Shortly after the 1994 Northridge Earthquake, Caltrans geotechnical engineers charged with developing site-specific : response spectra for high priority California bridges initiated a research project aimed at broadening their perspective : from simp...

  16. Implications on 1 + 1 D Tsunami Runup Modeling due to Time Features of the Earthquake Source (United States)

    Fuentes, M.; Riquelme, S.; Ruiz, J.; Campos, J.


    The time characteristics of the seismic source are usually neglected in tsunami modeling, due to the difference in the time scale of both processes. Nonetheless, there are just a few analytical studies that intended to explain separately the role of the rise time and the rupture velocity. In this work, we extend an analytical 1 + 1 D solution for the shoreline motion time series, from the static case to the kinematic case, by including both rise time and rupture velocity. Our results show that the static case corresponds to a limit case of null rise time and infinite rupture velocity. Both parameters contribute in shifting the arrival time, but maximum runup may be affected by very slow ruptures and long rise time. Parametric analysis reveals that runup is strictly decreasing with the rise time while is highly amplified in a certain range of slow rupture velocities. For even lower rupture velocities, the tsunami excitation vanishes and for larger, quicker approaches to the instantaneous case.

  17. The GIS and analysis of earthquake damage distribution of the 1303 Hongtong M=8 earthquake (United States)

    Gao, Meng-Tan; Jin, Xue-Shen; An, Wei-Ping; Lü, Xiao-Jian


    The geography information system of the 1303 Hongton M=8 earthquake has been established. Using the spatial analysis function of GIS, the spatial distribution characteristics of damage and isoseismal of the earthquake are studies. By comparing with the standard earthquake intensity attenuation relationship, the abnormal damage distribution of the earthquake is found, so the relationship of the abnormal distribution with tectonics, site condition and basin are analyzed. In this paper, the influence on the ground motion generated by earthquake source and the underground structures near source also are studied. The influence on seismic zonation, anti-earthquake design, earthquake prediction and earthquake emergency responding produced by the abnormal density distribution are discussed.

  18. Quantification of uncertainty in photon source spot size inference during laser-driven radiography experiments at TRIDENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tobias, Benjamin John [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Palaniyappan, Sasikumar [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Gautier, Donald Cort [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Mendez, Jacob [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Burris-Mog, Trevor John [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Huang, Chengkun K. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Favalli, Andrea [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Hunter, James F. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Espy, Michelle E. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Schmidt, Derek William [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Nelson, Ronald Owen [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Sefkow, Adam [Univ. of Rochester, NY (United States); Shimada, Tsutomu [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Johnson, Randall Philip [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Fernandez, Juan Carlos [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)


    Images of the R2DTO resolution target were obtained during laser-driven-radiography experiments performed at the TRIDENT laser facility, and analysis of these images using the Bayesian Inference Engine (BIE) determines a most probable full-width half maximum (FWHM) spot size of 78 μm. However, significant uncertainty prevails due to variation in the measured detector blur. Propagating this uncertainty in detector blur through the forward model results in an interval of probabilistic ambiguity spanning approximately 35-195 μm when the laser energy impinges on a thick (1 mm) tantalum target. In other phases of the experiment, laser energy is deposited on a thin (~100 nm) aluminum target placed 250 μm ahead of the tantalum converter. When the energetic electron beam is generated in this manner, upstream from the bremsstrahlung converter, the inferred spot size shifts to a range of much larger values, approximately 270-600 μm FWHM. This report discusses methods applied to obtain these intervals as well as concepts necessary for interpreting the result within a context of probabilistic quantitative inference.

  19. Historic Eastern Canadian earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asmis, G.J.K.; Atchinson, R.J.


    Nuclear power plants licensed in Canada have been designed to resist earthquakes: not all plants, however, have been explicitly designed to the same level of earthquake induced forces. Understanding the nature of strong ground motion near the source of the earthquake is still very tentative. This paper reviews historical and scientific accounts of the three strongest earthquakes - St. Lawrence (1925), Temiskaming (1935), Cornwall (1944) - that have occurred in Canada in 'modern' times, field studies of near-field strong ground motion records and their resultant damage or non-damage to industrial facilities, and numerical modelling of earthquake sources and resultant wave propagation to produce accelerograms consistent with the above historical record and field studies. It is concluded that for future construction of NPP's near-field strong motion must be explicitly considered in design

  20. Source characteristics of the Yutian earthquake in 2008 from inversion of the co-seismic deformation field mapped by InSAR (United States)

    Shan, Xinjian; Zhang, Guohong; Wang, Chisheng; Qu, Chunyan; Song, Xiaogang; Zhang, Guifang; Guo, Liming


    On 21 March 2008, an Ms7.3 earthquake occurred at Yutian County, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, which is in the same year as 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. These two earthquakes both took place in the Bayar Har block, while Yutian earthquake is located in the west edge and Wenchuan earthquake is in the east. The research on source characteristics of Yutian earthquake can serve to better understand Wenchuan earthquake mechanism. We attempt to reveal the features of the causative fault of Yutian shock and its co-seismic deformation field by a sensitivity-based iterative fitting (SBIF) method. Our work is based on analysis and interpretation to high-resolution satellite (Quickbird) images as well as D-InSAR data from the satellite Envisat ASAR, in conjunction with the analysis of seismicity, focal mechanism solutions and active tectonics in this region. The result shows that the 22 km long, nearly NS trending surface rupture zone by this event lies on a range-front alluvial platform in the Qira County. It is characterized by distinct linear traces and a simple structure with 1-3 m-wide individual seams and maximum 6.5 m width of a collapse fracture. Along the rupture zone are seen many secondary fractures and fault-bounded blocks by collapse, exhibiting remarkable extension. The co-seismic deformation affected a big range 100 km × 40 km. D-InSAR analysis indicates that the interferometric deformation field is dominated by extensional faulting with a small strike-slip component. Along the causative fault, the western wall fell down and the eastern wall, that is the active unit, rose up, both with westerly vergence. The maximum subsidence displacement is ˜2.6 m in the LOS, and the maximum uplift is 1.2 m. The maximum relative vertical dislocation reaches 4.1 m, which is 10 km distant from the starting rupture point to south. The 42 km-long seismogenic fault in the subsurface extends in NS direction as an arc, and it dipping angle changes from 70° near the

  1. Determination of Design Basis Earthquake ground motion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kato, Muneaki


    This paper describes principle of determining of Design Basis Earthquake following the Examination Guide, some examples on actual sites including earthquake sources to be considered, earthquake response spectrum and simulated seismic waves. In sppendix of this paper, furthermore, seismic safety review for N.P.P designed before publication of the Examination Guide was summarized with Check Basis Earthquake. (J.P.N.)

  2. Determination of Design Basis Earthquake ground motion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kato, Muneaki [Japan Atomic Power Co., Tokyo (Japan)


    This paper describes principle of determining of Design Basis Earthquake following the Examination Guide, some examples on actual sites including earthquake sources to be considered, earthquake response spectrum and simulated seismic waves. In sppendix of this paper, furthermore, seismic safety review for N.P.P designed before publication of the Examination Guide was summarized with Check Basis Earthquake. (J.P.N.)

  3. Seismic source directivity on May 11, 2011 Lorca earthquake; Directividad de la fuente sismica en el terremoto de Lorca del 11 de mayo de 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rueda Nunez, J.; Mezcua Rodriguez, J.; Garcia Blanco, R. M.


    The seismic source study performed to the Lorca 11 May 2011, 5.1 Mw earthquake allow us to conclude that a directivity effect is responsible of much of the high acceleration recorded at the city of Lorca which causes great damage. A new moment seismic tensor inversion has been obtained for the three main events of the earthquake series associated to the Alhama de Murcia Fault. A slip distribution over the fault plane has been obtained, showing a unilateral rupture in hypocenter-Lorca direction with a rupture velocity of 2.4 km/s with a maximum displacement of 17.5 cm at 2 km depth. The source time function analysis performed though Empirical Green Functions and the Wood-Anderson Amplitudes relation between main event and lower magnitude aftershocks shows also a clear directivity effect in the fault direction. A directivity pulse has been extracted from the strong ground motion instrument at Lorca of 33.2 cm/s centered at a 1.5 Hz which we considered main responsible of the earthquake damage. (Author) 70 refs.

  4. Analysis of the Source and Ground Motions from the 2017 M8.2 Tehuantepec and M7.1 Puebla Earthquakes (United States)

    Melgar, D.; Sahakian, V. J.; Perez-Campos, X.; Quintanar, L.; Ramirez-Guzman, L.; Spica, Z.; Espindola, V. H.; Ruiz-Angulo, A.; Cabral-Cano, E.; Baltay, A.; Geng, J.


    The September 2017 Tehuantepec and Puebla earthquakes were intra-slab earthquakes that together caused significant damage in broad regions of Mexico, including the states of Oaxaca, Chiapas, Morelos, Puebla, Mexico, and Mexico City. Ground motions in Mexico City have approximately the same angle of incidence from both earthquakes and potentially sample similar paths close to the city. We examine site effects and source terms by analysis of residuals between Ground-Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) and observed ground motions for both of these events at stations from the Servicio Sismólogico Nacional, Instituto de Ingeniería, and the Instituto de Geofísica Red del Valle de Mexico networks. GMPEs are a basis for seismic design, but also provide median ground motion values to act as a basis for comparison of individual earthquakes and site responses. First, we invert for finite-fault slip inversions for Tehuantepec with high-rate GPS, static GPS, tide gauge and DART buoy data, and for Puebla with high-rate GPS and strong motion data. Using the distance from the stations with ground motion observations to the derived slip models, we use the GMPEs of Garcia et al. (2005), Zhao et al. (2006), and Abrahamson, Silva and Kamai (2014), to compute predicted values of peak ground acceleration and velocity (PGA and PGV) and response spectral accelerations (SA). Residuals between observed and predicted ground motion parameters are then computed for each recording, and are decomposed into event and site components using a mixed effects regression. We analyze these residuals as an adjustment away from median ground motions in the region to glean information about the earthquake source properties, as well as local site response in and outside of the Mexico City basin. The event and site terms are then compared with available values of stress drop for the two earthquakes, and Vs30 values for the sites, respectively. This analysis is useful in determining which GMPE is most

  5. High-resolution backprojection at regional distance: Application to the Haiti M7.0 earthquake and comparisons with finite source studies (United States)

    Meng, L.; Ampuero, J.-P.; Sladen, A.; Rendon, H.


    A catastrophic Mw7 earthquake ruptured on 12 January 2010 on a complex fault system near Port-au-Prince, Haiti. Offshore rupture is suggested by aftershock locations and marine geophysics studies, but its extent remains difficult to define using geodetic and teleseismic observations. Here we perform the multitaper multiple signal classification (MUSIC) analysis, a high-resolution array technique, at regional distance with recordings from the Venezuela National Seismic Network to resolve high-frequency (about 0.4 Hz) aspects of the earthquake process. Our results indicate westward rupture with two subevents, roughly 35 km apart. In comparison, a lower-frequency finite source inversion with fault geometry based on new geologic and aftershock data shows two slip patches with centroids 21 km apart. Apparent source time functions from USArray further constrain the intersubevent time delay, implying a rupture speed of 3.3 km/s. The tips of the slip zones coincide with subevents imaged by backprojections. The different subevent locations found by backprojection and source inversion suggest spatial complementarity between high- and low-frequency source radiation consistent with high-frequency radiation originating from rupture arrest phases at the edges of main slip areas. The centroid moment tensor (CMT) solution and a geodetic-only inversion have similar moment, indicating most of the moment released is captured by geodetic observations and no additional rupture is required beyond where it is imaged in our preferred model. Our results demonstrate the contribution of backprojections of regional seismic array data for earthquakes down to M ≈ 7, especially when incomplete coverage of seismic and geodetic data implies large uncertainties in source inversions.

  6. Seismicity Pattern and Fault Structure in the Central Himalaya Seismic Gap Using Precise Earthquake Hypocenters and their Source Parameters (United States)

    Mendoza, M.; Ghosh, A.; Rai, S. S.


    The devastation brought on by the Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal on 25 April 2015, reconditioned people to the high earthquake risk along the Himalayan arc. It is therefore imperative to learn from the Gorkha earthquake, and gain a better understanding of the state of stress in this fault regime, in order to identify areas that could produce the next devastating earthquake. Here, we focus on what is known as the "central Himalaya seismic gap". It is located in Uttarakhand, India, west of Nepal, where a large (> Mw 7.0) earthquake has not occurred for over the past 200 years [Rajendran, C.P., & Rajendran, K., 2005]. This 500 - 800 km long along-strike seismic gap has been poorly studied, mainly due to the lack of modern and dense instrumentation. It is especially concerning since it surrounds densely populated cities, such as New Delhi. In this study, we analyze a rich seismic dataset from a dense network consisting of 50 broadband stations, that operated between 2005 and 2012. We use the STA/LTA filter technique to detect earthquake phases, and the latest tools contributed to the Antelope software environment, to develop a large and robust earthquake catalog containing thousands of precise hypocentral locations, magnitudes, and focal mechanisms. By refining those locations in HypoDD [Waldhauser & Ellsworth, 2000] to form a tighter cluster of events using relative relocation, we can potentially illustrate fault structures in this region with high resolution. Additionally, using ZMAP [Weimer, S., 2001], we perform a variety of statistical analyses to understand the variability and nature of seismicity occurring in the region. Generating a large and consistent earthquake catalog not only brings to light the physical processes controlling the earthquake cycle in an Himalayan seismogenic zone, it also illustrates how stresses are building up along the décollment and the faults that stem from it. With this new catalog, we aim to reveal fault structure, study

  7. Preliminary Result of Earthquake Source Parameters the Mw 3.4 at 23:22:47 IWST, August 21, 2004, Centre Java, Indonesia Based on MERAMEX Project (United States)

    Laksono, Y. A.; Brotopuspito, K. S.; Suryanto, W.; Widodo; Wardah, R. A.; Rudianto, I.


    In order to study the structure subsurface at Merapi Lawu anomaly (MLA) using forward modelling or full waveform inversion, it needs a good earthquake source parameters. The best result source parameter comes from seismogram with high signal to noise ratio (SNR). Beside that the source must be near the MLA location and the stations that used as parameters must be outside from MLA in order to avoid anomaly. At first the seismograms are processed by software SEISAN v10 using a few stations from MERAMEX project. After we found the hypocentre that match the criterion we fine-tuned the source parameters using more stations. Based on seismogram from 21 stations, it is obtained the source parameters as follows: the event is at August, 21 2004, on 23:22:47 Indonesia western standard time (IWST), epicentre coordinate -7.80°S, 101.34°E, hypocentre 47.3 km, dominant frequency f0 = 3.0 Hz, the earthquake magnitude Mw = 3.4.

  8. Sensitivity of broad-band ground-motion simulations to earthquake source and Earth structure variations: an application to the Messina Straits (Italy)

    KAUST Repository

    Imperatori, W.


    In this paper, we investigate ground-motion variability due to different faulting approximations and crustal-model parametrizations in the Messina Straits area (Southern Italy). Considering three 1-D velocity models proposed for this region and a total of 72 different source realizations, we compute broad-band (0-10 Hz) synthetics for Mw 7.0 events using a fault plane geometry recently proposed. We explore source complexity in terms of classic kinematic (constant rise-time and rupture speed) and pseudo-dynamic models (variable rise-time and rupture speed). Heterogeneous slip distributions are generated using a Von Karman autocorrelation function. Rise-time variability is related to slip, whereas rupture speed variations are connected to static stress drop. Boxcar, triangle and modified Yoffe are the adopted source time functions. We find that ground-motion variability associated to differences in crustal models is constant and becomes important at intermediate and long periods. On the other hand, source-induced ground-motion variability is negligible at long periods and strong at intermediate-short periods. Using our source-modelling approach and the three different 1-D structural models, we investigate shaking levels for the 1908 Mw 7.1 Messina earthquake adopting a recently proposed model for fault geometry and final slip. Our simulations suggest that peak levels in Messina and Reggio Calabria must have reached 0.6-0.7 g during this earthquake.

  9. Source Process of the Mw 5.0 Au Sable Forks, New York, Earthquake Sequence from Local Aftershock Monitoring Network Data (United States)

    Kim, W.; Seeber, L.; Armbruster, J. G.


    On April 20, 2002, a Mw 5 earthquake occurred near the town of Au Sable Forks, northeastern Adirondacks, New York. The quake caused moderate damage (MMI VII) around the epicentral area and it is well recorded by over 50 broadband stations in the distance ranges of 70 to 2000 km in the Eastern North America. Regional broadband waveform data are used to determine source mechanism and focal depth using moment tensor inversion technique. Source mechanism indicates predominantly thrust faulting along 45° dipping fault plane striking due South. The mainshock is followed by at least three strong aftershocks with local magnitude (ML) greater than 3 and about 70 aftershocks are detected and located in the first three months by a 12-station portable seismographic network. The aftershock distribution clearly delineate the mainshock rupture to the westerly dipping fault plane at a depth of 11 to 12 km. Preliminary analysis of the aftershock waveform data indicates that orientation of the P-axis rotated 90° from that of the mainshock, suggesting a complex source process of the earthquake sequence. We achieved an important milestone in monitoring earthquakes and evaluating their hazards through rapid cross-border (Canada-US) and cross-regional (Central US-Northeastern US) collaborative efforts. Hence, staff at Instrument Software Technology, Inc. near the epicentral area joined Lamont-Doherty staff and deployed the first portable station in the epicentral area; CERI dispatched two of their technical staff to the epicentral area with four accelerometers and a broadband seismograph; the IRIS/PASSCAL facility shipped three digital seismographs and ancillary equipment within one day of the request; the POLARIS Consortium, Canada sent a field crew of three with a near real-time, satellite telemetry based earthquake monitoring system. The Polaris station, KSVO, powered by a solar panel and batteries, was already transmitting data to the central Hub in London, Ontario, Canada within

  10. Mitigating artifacts in back-projection source imaging with implications for frequency-dependent properties of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake (United States)

    Meng, Lingsen; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Luo, Yingdi; Wu, Wenbo; Ni, Sidao


    Comparing teleseismic array back-projection source images of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake with results from static and kinematic finite source inversions has revealed little overlap between the regions of high- and low-frequency slip. Motivated by this interesting observation, back-projection studies extended to intermediate frequencies, down to about 0.1 Hz, have suggested that a progressive transition of rupture properties as a function of frequency is observable. Here, by adapting the concept of array response function to non-stationary signals, we demonstrate that the "swimming artifact", a systematic drift resulting from signal non-stationarity, induces significant bias on beamforming back-projection at low frequencies. We introduce a "reference window strategy" into the multitaper-MUSIC back-projection technique and significantly mitigate the "swimming artifact" at high frequencies (1 s to 4 s). At lower frequencies, this modification yields notable, but significantly smaller, artifacts than time-domain stacking. We perform extensive synthetic tests that include a 3D regional velocity model for Japan. We analyze the recordings of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake at the USArray and at the European array at periods from 1 s to 16 s. The migration of the source location as a function of period, regardless of the back-projection methods, has characteristics that are consistent with the expected effect of the "swimming artifact". In particular, the apparent up-dip migration as a function of frequency obtained with the USArray can be explained by the "swimming artifact". This indicates that the most substantial frequency-dependence of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake source occurs at periods longer than 16 s. Thus, low-frequency back-projection needs to be further tested and validated in order to contribute to the characterization of frequency-dependent rupture properties.

  11. Reading a 400,000-year record of earthquake frequency for an intraplate fault. (United States)

    Williams, Randolph T; Goodwin, Laurel B; Sharp, Warren D; Mozley, Peter S


    Our understanding of the frequency of large earthquakes at timescales longer than instrumental and historical records is based mostly on paleoseismic studies of fast-moving plate-boundary faults. Similar study of intraplate faults has been limited until now, because intraplate earthquake recurrence intervals are generally long (10s to 100s of thousands of years) relative to conventional paleoseismic records determined by trenching. Long-term variations in the earthquake recurrence intervals of intraplate faults therefore are poorly understood. Longer paleoseismic records for intraplate faults are required both to better quantify their earthquake recurrence intervals and to test competing models of earthquake frequency (e.g., time-dependent, time-independent, and clustered). We present the results of U-Th dating of calcite veins in the Loma Blanca normal fault zone, Rio Grande rift, New Mexico, United States, that constrain earthquake recurrence intervals over much of the past ∼550 ka-the longest direct record of seismic frequency documented for any fault to date. The 13 distinct seismic events delineated by this effort demonstrate that for >400 ka, the Loma Blanca fault produced periodic large earthquakes, consistent with a time-dependent model of earthquake recurrence. However, this time-dependent series was interrupted by a cluster of earthquakes at ∼430 ka. The carbon isotope composition of calcite formed during this seismic cluster records rapid degassing of CO 2 , suggesting an interval of anomalous fluid source. In concert with U-Th dates recording decreased recurrence intervals, we infer seismicity during this interval records fault-valve behavior. These data provide insight into the long-term seismic behavior of the Loma Blanca fault and, by inference, other intraplate faults.

  12. THE EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI OF 27 FEBRUARY 2010 IN CHILE – Evaluation of Source Mechanism and of Near and Far-field Tsunami Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Pararas-Carayannis


    Full Text Available The great earthquake of February 27, 2010 occurred as thrust-faulting along a highly stressed coastal segment of Chile's central seismic zone - extending from about 33oS to 37oS latitude - where active, oblique subduction of the Nazca tectonic plate below South America occurs at the high rate of up to 80 mm per year. It was the 5th most powerful earthquake in recorded history and the largest in the region since the extremely destructive May 22, 1960 magnitude Mw9.5 earthquake near Valdivia. The central segment south of Valparaiso from about 34o South to 36o South had been identified as a moderate seismic gap where no major or great, shallow earthquakes had occurred in the last 120 years, with the exception of a deeper focus, inland event in 1939. The tsunami that was generated by the 2010 earthquake was highest at Robinson Crusoe Island in the Juan Fernández archipelago as well as in Talchuano, Dichato, Pelluhue and elsewhere on the Chilean mainland, causing numerous deaths and destruction. Given the 2010 earthquake’s great moment magnitude of 8.8, shallow focal depth and coastal location, it would have been expected that the resulting tsunami would have had much greater Pacific-wide, far field effects similar to those of 1960, which originated from the same active seismotectonic zone. However, comparison of the characteristics of the two events indicates substantial differences in source mechanisms, energy release, ruptures, spatial clustering and distributions of aftershocks, as well as in geometry of subduction and extent of crustal displacements on land and in the ocean. Also, the San Bautista and the Juan Fernández Islands - ridges rising from the ocean floor – as well as the O’Higgins seamount/guyot may have trapped some of the tsunami energy, thus accounting for the smaller, far field tsunami effects observed elsewhere in the Pacific. Apparently, complex, localized structural anomalies and interactions of the Nazca tectonic plate

  13. Protective Effects of Social Support Content and Support Source on Depression and Its Prevalence 6 Months after Wenchuan Earthquake. (United States)

    Guo, Suran; Tian, Donghua; Wang, Xiaohua; Xiao, Yun; He, Huan; Qu, Zhiyong; Zhang, Xiulan


    A magnitude 8.0 earthquake struck China's southwestern Sichuan province on 12 May 2008. The reported rates of depression symptoms across studies were not consistent, and its protective factors were unknown. This study collected data from Wenchuan earthquake survivors to estimate the prevalence of depression and explore the protective effects of social support and support source on depression. A randomized sampling cross-sectional survey based on community was conducted in January 2009, in Mianzhu and Anxian counties, and 633 survivors were entered into the study. The Chinese edition of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale and the Social Support Rating Scale were used to investigate depression and social support. The prevalence of probable depression in adults 6 months after the Wenchuan earthquake was 22.9% (145/633). Total social support, subjective support, support use and support from family members, neighbours and organizations negatively predicted depression. According to the results, depression was common 6 months after this major disaster. Total social support, subjective support, support use and support from family members, neighbours and organizations were all protective factors for depression after a major disaster. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Molecular Individual-Based Approach on Triatoma brasiliensis: Inferences on Triatomine Foci, Trypanosoma cruzi Natural Infection Prevalence, Parasite Diversity and Feeding Sources. (United States)

    Almeida, Carlos Eduardo; Faucher, Leslie; Lavina, Morgane; Costa, Jane; Harry, Myriam


    We used an individual-based molecular multisource approach to assess the epidemiological importance of Triatoma brasiliensis collected in distinct sites and ecotopes in Rio Grande do Norte State, Brazil. In the semi-arid zones of Brazil, this blood sucking bug is the most important vector of Trypanosoma cruzi--the parasite that causes Chagas disease. First, cytochrome b (cytb) and microsatellite markers were used for inferences on the genetic structure of five populations (108 bugs). Second, we determined the natural T. cruzi infection prevalence and parasite diversity in 126 bugs by amplifying a mini-exon gene from triatomine gut contents. Third, we identified the natural feeding sources of 60 T. brasiliensis by using the blood meal content via vertebrate cytb analysis. Demographic inferences based on cytb variation indicated expansion events in some sylvatic and domiciliary populations. Microsatellite results indicated gene flow between sylvatic and anthropic (domiciliary and peridomiciliary) populations, which threatens vector control efforts because sylvatic population are uncontrollable. A high natural T. cruzi infection prevalence (52-71%) and two parasite lineages were found for the sylvatic foci, in which 68% of bugs had fed on Kerodon rupestris (Rodentia: Caviidae), highlighting it as a potential reservoir. For peridomiciliary bugs, Galea spixii (Rodentia: Caviidae) was the main mammal feeding source, which may reinforce previous concerns about the potential of this animal to link the sylvatic and domiciliary T. cruzi cycles.

  15. Source parameters for the 2013-2015 earthquake sequence in Nógrád county, Hungary (United States)

    Wéber, Zoltán


    Between 2013 June and 2015 January, 35 earthquakes with local magnitude M L ranging from 1.1 to 4.2 occurred in Nógrád county, Hungary. This earthquake sequence represents above average seismic activity in the region and is the first one that was recorded by a significant number of three-component digital seismographs in the county. Using a Bayesian multiple-event location algorithm, we have estimated the hypocenters of 30 earthquakes with M L ≥1.5. The events occurred in two small regions of a few squared kilometers: one to the east of Érsekvadkert and the other at Iliny. The uncertainty of the epicenters is about 1.5-1.7 km in the E-W direction and 1.8-2.1 km in the N-S direction at the 95 % confidence level. The estimated event depths are confined to the upper 3 km of the crust. We have successfully estimated the full moment tensors of 4 M w ≥3.6 earthquakes using a probabilistic waveform inversion procedure. The non-double-couple components of the retrieved moment tensor solutions are statistically insignificant. The negligible amount of the isotropic component implies the tectonic nature of the investigated events. All of the analyzed earthquakes have strike-slip mechanism with either right-lateral slip on an approximately N-S striking or left-lateral movement on a roughly E-W striking nodal plane. The orientations of the obtained focal mechanisms are in good agreement with the main stress pattern published for the epicentral region. Both the P and T principal axes are horizontal, and the P axis is oriented along a NE-SW direction.

  16. Preliminary 3D P-wave Seismic Velocity Structure in the Rupture Zone of the April 1, 2014 Pisagua, Chile Earthquake from Controlled Source Data (United States)

    Davenport, K. K.; Trehu, A. M.


    Variations in down-going slab morphology and geologic characteristics of the upper plate impact the evolution and seismic behavior of subduction zones during plate convergence. Disparities in strain accumulation, aseismic creep, earthquake slip rates, and segmentation of slip have all been connected to features such as subducting ridges and seamounts, large sedimentary basins on the forearc, and sediment thickness in the trench. Geologic features like these are associated with the rupture pattern of the Mw 8.2 April 1, 2014 Pisagua, Chile earthquake and its associated foreshocks and aftershocks. The 2014 events ruptured 200 km of a 500 km section where no significant seismicity had occurred since two M9 events in 1868 and 1877. The remaining un-ruptured region correlates with a high gravity anomaly in the forearc, suggesting that rupture propagation was controlled by geologic structure. To investigate these correlations, and provide insight into the relationship between geologic characteristics of the upper and lower plates and observed seismic behavior, the PICTURES (Pisagua/Iquique Crustal Tomography to Understand the Region of the Earthquake Source) project used the R/V Marcus Langseth to acquire a 3D controlled-source seismic experiment off the northern coast of Chile in 2016. The project included 45000 airgun shots recorded on short-period ocean bottom seismometers (OBS), an 8-12.5-km long streamer, and land-based stations. A 3D grid over the forearc allows high-resolution seismic imaging of the velocity and reflectivity structure in the region that ruptured during the 2014 Pisagua earthquake sequence. Here we present preliminary results from 3D tomography of travel times recorded at 70 OBS sites within the 3D grid. In-depth data analysis is ongoing to evaluate data quality and produce preliminary 2D velocity profiles in preparation for a full 3D inversion of primary and secondary arrivals. Ultimately the 3D velocity model will be integrated with multi

  17. Defeating Earthquakes (United States)

    Stein, R. S.


    The 2004 M=9.2 Sumatra earthquake claimed what seemed an unfathomable 228,000 lives, although because of its size, we could at least assure ourselves that it was an extremely rare event. But in the short space of 8 years, the Sumatra quake no longer looks like an anomaly, and it is no longer even the worst disaster of the Century: 80,000 deaths in the 2005 M=7.6 Pakistan quake; 88,000 deaths in the 2008 M=7.9 Wenchuan, China quake; 316,000 deaths in the M=7.0 Haiti, quake. In each case, poor design and construction were unable to withstand the ferocity of the shaken earth. And this was compounded by inadequate rescue, medical care, and shelter. How could the toll continue to mount despite the advances in our understanding of quake risk? The world's population is flowing into megacities, and many of these migration magnets lie astride the plate boundaries. Caught between these opposing demographic and seismic forces are 50 cities of at least 3 million people threatened by large earthquakes, the targets of chance. What we know for certain is that no one will take protective measures unless they are convinced they are at risk. Furnishing that knowledge is the animating principle of the Global Earthquake Model, launched in 2009. At the very least, everyone should be able to learn what his or her risk is. At the very least, our community owes the world an estimate of that risk. So, first and foremost, GEM seeks to raise quake risk awareness. We have no illusions that maps or models raise awareness; instead, earthquakes do. But when a quake strikes, people need a credible place to go to answer the question, how vulnerable am I, and what can I do about it? The Global Earthquake Model is being built with GEM's new open source engine, OpenQuake. GEM is also assembling the global data sets without which we will never improve our understanding of where, how large, and how frequently earthquakes will strike, what impacts they will have, and how those impacts can be lessened by

  18. Approaching the potential seismogenic source of the 8 September 1905 earthquake: New geophysical, geological and biochemical data from the S. Eufemia Gulf (S Italy) (United States)

    Loreto, Maria Filomena; Fracassi, Umberto; Franzo, Annalisa; Del Negro, Paola; Zgur, Fabrizio; Facchin, Lorenzo


    The earthquake that occurred on 8 September 1905 is one of the strongest events that ever affected western Calabria. This event caused 557 casualties, more than 2000 injured, and left about 300,000 people homeless. The mainshock was followed by a feeble tsunami and hundreds of aftershocks. During the last 15 years, various authors proposed hypotheses for a seismogenic source causative of the 1905 earthquake, apparently diverse and without an unequivocal solution. To study the active tectonics of the region and to gain insight into a potential seismogenic source responsible for the 1905 event, we carried out a well-targeted multidisciplinary survey within the Gulf of S. Eufemia (summer 2010) in the frame of the ISTEGE project, using the R/V OGS-Explora. The acquired dataset consists of geophysical data, oceanographical measurements, and biological, chemical and sedimentary samples. The analysis of the geophysical data (330 km of MultiChannel Seismic, 2223 km of sub-bottom Chirp profiles, and 2231 km2 of high resolution morpho-bathymetric data) allowed the identification of some main morpho-structural features characterizing the sedimentary basin hosted within the S. Eufemia Gulf. The three main tectonic structures shaping the basin and its sedimentary bodies are: 1) an E-dipping large normal fault, N31° oriented; 2) a WNW-trending polyphased fault system; and 3) a likely E-W trending fault with dip-slip motion. Among these, the large normal fault shows evidence of activity, as witnessed by the deformed recent sediments, and by the lineament due to consistent seabed rupture observed on the seafloor along which, locally, fluids leakage occurs. Finally, evidence of probable geothermal activity is reflected by the anomalous distribution of prokaryotic abundance and biopolymeric C content, whereas no such evidence comes from water temperature analysis (CTD measurements). The various seismogenic sources proposed in the literature make up a composite framework of this

  19. Source characterisation of Sedimentary organic matter in mangrove ecosystems of northern Kerala, India: Inferences from bulk characterisation and hydrocarbon biomarkers

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Resmi, P.; Manju, M.N.; Gireeshkumar, T.R.; RatheeshKumar, C.S.; Chandramohanakumar, N.

    Surface sediment samples from five mangrove ecosystems along the Kerala coast, north of Kochi were analysed for elemental ratios, stable isotopes of carbon and hydrocarbon biomarkers (n-alkanes, n-alkenes and hopanes) to assess the sources and early...

  20. Methodology to determine the parameters of historical earthquakes in China (United States)

    Wang, Jian; Lin, Guoliang; Zhang, Zhe


    China is one of the countries with the longest cultural tradition. Meanwhile, China has been suffering very heavy earthquake disasters; so, there are abundant earthquake recordings. In this paper, we try to sketch out historical earthquake sources and research achievements in China. We will introduce some basic information about the collections of historical earthquake sources, establishing intensity scale and the editions of historical earthquake catalogues. Spatial-temporal and magnitude distributions of historical earthquake are analyzed briefly. Besides traditional methods, we also illustrate a new approach to amend the parameters of historical earthquakes or even identify candidate zones for large historical or palaeo-earthquakes. In the new method, a relationship between instrumentally recorded small earthquakes and strong historical earthquakes is built up. Abundant historical earthquake sources and the achievements of historical earthquake research in China are of valuable cultural heritage in the world.

  1. Modeling the effects of source and path heterogeneity on ground motions of great earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone Using 3D simulations (United States)

    Delorey, Andrew; Frankel, Arthur; Liu, Pengcheng; Stephenson, William J.


    We ran finite‐difference earthquake simulations for great subduction zone earthquakes in Cascadia to model the effects of source and path heterogeneity for the purpose of improving strong‐motion predictions. We developed a rupture model for large subduction zone earthquakes based on a k−2 slip spectrum and scale‐dependent rise times by representing the slip distribution as the sum of normal modes of a vibrating membrane.Finite source and path effects were important in determining the distribution of strong motions through the locations of the hypocenter, subevents, and crustal structures like sedimentary basins. Some regions in Cascadia appear to be at greater risk than others during an event due to the geometry of the Cascadia fault zone relative to the coast and populated regions. The southern Oregon coast appears to have increased risk because it is closer to the locked zone of the Cascadia fault than other coastal areas and is also in the path of directivity amplification from any rupture propagating north to south in that part of the subduction zone, and the basins in the Puget Sound area are efficiently amplified by both north and south propagating ruptures off the coast of western Washington. We find that the median spectral accelerations at 5 s period from the simulations are similar to that of the Zhao et al. (2006) ground‐motion prediction equation, although our simulations predict higher amplitudes near the region of greatest slip and in the sedimentary basins, such as the Seattle basin.

  2. Semantic and Social Networks Comparison for the Haiti Earthquake Relief Operations from APAN Data Sources using Lexical Link Analysis (LLA) (United States)


    TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2012 to 00-00-2012 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Semantic and Social Networks Comparison for the Haiti Earthquake Relief...revealed the collaborations among military, government, and civil stakeholders in the crisis via social networks , it also recorded the content that...semantic networks suggest more potential collaboration when compared to social networks (Section 3.3.2)? 3 Approaches 3.1 Lexical Link Analysis (LLA

  3. Pre-earthquake signals – Part I: Deviatoric stresses turn rocks into a source of electric currents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. T. Freund


    Full Text Available Earthquakes are feared because they often strike so suddenly. Yet, there are innumerable reports of pre-earthquake signals. Widespread disagreement exists in the geoscience community how these signals can be generated in the Earth's crust and whether they are early warning signs, related to the build-up of tectonic stresses before major seismic events. Progress in understanding and eventually using these signals has been slow because the underlying physical process or processes are basically not understood. This has changed with the discovery that, when igneous or high-grade metamorphic rocks are subjected to deviatoric stress, dormant electronic charge carriers are activated: electrons and defect electrons. The activation increases the number density of mobile charge carriers in the rocks and, hence, their electric conductivity. The defect electrons are associated with the oxygen anion sublattice and are known as positive holes or pholes for short. The boundary between stressed and unstressed rock acts a potential barrier that lets pholes pass but blocks electrons. Therefore, like electrons and ions in an electrochemical battery, the stress-activated electrons and pholes in the "rock battery" have to flow out in different directions. When the circuit is closed, the battery currents can flow. The discovery of such stress-activated currents in crustal rocks has far-reaching implications for understanding pre-earthquake signals.

  4. How can contributors to open-source communities be trusted? On the assumption, inference, and substitution of trust

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Laat, P.B.


    Open-source communities that focus on content rely squarely on the contributions of invisible strangers in cyberspace. How do such communities handle the problem of trusting that strangers have good intentions and adequate competence? This question is explored in relation to communities in which

  5. Estimating the tsunami source model from the deposits: Testing the reliability of the method following the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquak (United States)

    Hashimoto, K.; Goto, K.; Sugawara, D.; Abe, T.; Imamura, F.


    Information on the magnitude of past tsunamis is essential for evaluating the risks from the low-frequency large-scale earthquakes and tsunamis. Numerical simulation technique is used to reproduce propagation and inundation by modern tsunamis and to estimate the nature of the wave source, as represented by the earthquake magnitude and focal mechanism. The simulated results are validated based on various kinds of tsunami records. In the same way, numerical simulations of historical tsunamis are based on the available historical records on the tsunami event. However, historical records are sometimes too sparse and too abstract as well to quantify the run-up heights and inundation distances. To date, tsunami deposits are widely used for physical evidence to compensate the historical accounts. Insights to the heights and inundation distances, as well as the waveforms, are derived from tsunami deposits. The fault parameters of the past earthquake, such as strike, dip, and slip, are determined under the assumption that the distribution of tsunami deposits can closely represents the actual inundation distance. An important question arise here that whether these fault parameters can be determined accurately by the distribution of tsunami deposits. The answer to the question can be derived from the application of the methodology to modern examples. The 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami deposited enormous volume of the sediments on the coastal plains. It is reported that the focal mechanism and the magnitude of the 2011 event was unusual; Based on instrumental observation data, the amount of maximum fault slip is estimated at about 30 m [JMA, 2011] or even 56 m [Geographical Information Authority of Japan, 2011], the latter is being derived from the seafloor and on-land geodetic observation data from numbers of GPS stations. This is considerably beyond the empirical formula of the relationship between the slip amount and earthquake magnitude. In the

  6. Nowcasting Earthquakes (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Donnellan, A.; Grant Ludwig, L.; Turcotte, D. L.; Luginbuhl, M.; Gail, G.


    Nowcasting is a term originating from economics and finance. It refers to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy or markets at the current time by indirect means. We apply this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of the fault system, and its current level of progress through the earthquake cycle. In our implementation of this idea, we use the global catalog of earthquakes, using "small" earthquakes to determine the level of hazard from "large" earthquakes in the region. Our method does not involve any model other than the idea of an earthquake cycle. Rather, we define a specific region and a specific large earthquake magnitude of interest, ensuring that we have enough data to span at least 20 or more large earthquake cycles in the region. We then compute the earthquake potential score (EPS) which is defined as the cumulative probability distribution P(nearthquakes in the region. From the count of small earthquakes since the last large earthquake, we determine the value of EPS = P(nearthquake cycle in the defined region at the current time.

  7. Earthquake Facts (United States)

    ... estimated 830,000 people. In 1976 another deadly earthquake struck in Tangshan, China, where more than 250,000 people were killed. Florida and North Dakota have the smallest number of earthquakes in the United States. The deepest earthquakes typically ...

  8. Distributional Inference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kroese, A.H.; van der Meulen, E.A.; Poortema, Klaas; Schaafsma, W.


    The making of statistical inferences in distributional form is conceptionally complicated because the epistemic 'probabilities' assigned are mixtures of fact and fiction. In this respect they are essentially different from 'physical' or 'frequency-theoretic' probabilities. The distributional form is

  9. Identification of the seismogenic source of the 1875 Cucuta earthquake on the basis of a combination of neotectonic, paleoseismologic and historic seismicity studies (United States)

    Rodríguez, Luz; Diederix, Hans; Torres, Eliana; Audemard, Franck; Hernández, Catalina; Singer, André; Bohórquez, Olga; Yepez, Santiago


    An interesting variety of field evidence that collectively cover the three branches of Earthquake Geology: Neotectonics, Paleoseismology and Historical seismicity, has been collected in the border area between Venezuela and Colombia, near the town of San José de Cúcuta, as part of a study aimed at establishing the seismic source of the great Cucuta Earthquake, that occurred on May 18th, 1875, and that caused heavy losses of life and destruction on both sides of the border, between the Department of Norte de Santander in Colombia and Táchira state in Venezuela. This region is affected by the activity of several cross-border fault systems that converge in the zone of the so-called Pamplona Indenter. Among these seismic sources, the potential candidates of this destructive seismic event in 1875 are those related to the Boconó Fault System, of the northwestern foothills of the Mérida Andes and in particular it's most northwestern expression, the Aguas Calientes Fault System, as suggested by previous research carried out by FUNVISIS for the Venezuelan oil industry in the late 80s. In order to confirm whether this was the responsible system for the earthquake or not, the following studies were carried out: 1) In Neotectonics, a detailed binational surface mapping of the active faults of this system was carried out. This system consists of three branches referred to in this paper as: the North, Central and South branch respectively; 2) In Paleoseismology, two trenches were excavated. The first trench was excavated across the South branch and the second one across the North branch, which confirmed fault activity during the Holocene epoch; 3) In historical seismicity the direct coseismic surface effects that occurred in the epicentral area of the earthquake were assessed. All evidence collected and integrated in these three lines of research, made it possible to conclude that the Central branch of the Aguas Calientes fault system is the most likely candidate to have

  10. Preindustrial atmospheric ethane levels inferred from polar ice cores: A constraint on the geologic sources of atmospheric ethane and methane (United States)

    Nicewonger, Melinda R.; Verhulst, Kristal R.; Aydin, Murat; Saltzman, Eric S.


    Ethane levels were measured in air extracted from Greenland and Antarctic ice cores ranging in age from 994 to 1918 Common Era (C.E.) There is good temporal overlap between the two data sets from 1600 to 1750 C.E. with ethane levels stable at 397 ± 28 parts per trillion (ppt) (±2 standard error (s.e.)) over Greenland and 103 ± 9 ppt over Antarctica. The observed north/south interpolar ratio of ethane (3.9 ± 0.1, 1σ) implies considerably more ethane emissions in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere, suggesting geologic ethane sources contribute significantly to the preindustrial ethane budget. Box model simulations based on these data constrain the global geologic emissions of ethane to 2.2-3.5 Tg yr-1 and biomass burning emissions to 1.2-2.5 Tg yr-1 during the preindustrial era. The results suggest biomass burning emissions likely increased since the preindustrial period. Biomass burning and geologic outgassing are also sources of atmospheric methane. The results place constraints on preindustrial methane emissions from these sources.

  11. The 2016 Kaikōura Earthquake Revealed by Kinematic Source Inversion and Seismic Wavefield Simulations: Slow Rupture Propagation on a Geometrically Complex Crustal Fault Network (United States)

    Holden, C.; Kaneko, Y.; D'Anastasio, E.; Benites, R.; Fry, B.; Hamling, I. J.


    The 2016 Kaikōura (New Zealand) earthquake generated large ground motions and resulted in multiple onshore and offshore fault ruptures, a profusion of triggered landslides, and a regional tsunami. Here we examine the rupture evolution using two kinematic modeling techniques based on analysis of local strong-motion and high-rate GPS data. Our kinematic models capture a complex pattern of slowly (Vr source region, mostly on the Kekerengu fault, 60 s after the origin time. Both models indicate rupture reactivation on the Kekerengu fault with the time separation of 11 s between the start of the original failure and start of the subsequent one. We further conclude that most near-source waveforms can be explained by slip on the crustal faults, with little (<8%) or no contribution from the subduction interface.

  12. Source inference of exogenous gamma-hydroxybutyric acid (GHB) administered to humans by means of carbon isotopic ratio analysis: novel perspectives regarding forensic investigation and intelligence issues. (United States)

    Marclay, François; Saudan, Christophe; Vienne, Julie; Tafti, Mehdi; Saugy, Martial


    γ-Hydroxybutyric acid (GHB) is an endogenous short-chain fatty acid popular as a recreational drug due to sedative and euphoric effects, but also often implicated in drug-facilitated sexual assaults owing to disinhibition and amnesic properties. Whilst discrimination between endogenous and exogenous GHB as required in intoxication cases may be achieved by the determination of the carbon isotope content, such information has not yet been exploited to answer source inference questions of forensic investigation and intelligence interests. However, potential isotopic fractionation effects occurring through the whole metabolism of GHB may be a major concern in this regard. Thus, urine specimens from six healthy male volunteers who ingested prescription GHB sodium salt, marketed as Xyrem(®), were analysed by means of gas chromatography/combustion/isotope ratio mass spectrometry to assess this particular topic. A very narrow range of δ(13)C values, spreading from -24.81‰ to -25.06‰, was observed, whilst mean δ(13)C value of Xyrem(®) corresponded to -24.99‰. Since urine samples and prescription drug could not be distinguished by means of statistical analysis, carbon isotopic effects and subsequent influence on δ(13)C values through GHB metabolism as a whole could be ruled out. Thus, a link between GHB as a raw matrix and found in a biological fluid may be established, bringing relevant information regarding source inference evaluation. Therefore, this study supports a diversified scope of exploitation for stable isotopes characterized in biological matrices from investigations on intoxication cases to drug intelligence programmes.

  13. Evaluation of Earthquake-Induced Effects on Neighbouring Faults and Volcanoes: Application to the 2016 Pedernales Earthquake (United States)

    Bejar, M.; Alvarez Gomez, J. A.; Staller, A.; Luna, M. P.; Perez Lopez, R.; Monserrat, O.; Chunga, K.; Herrera, G.; Jordá, L.; Lima, A.; Martínez-Díaz, J. J.


    It has long been recognized that earthquakes change the stress in the upper crust around the fault rupture and can influence the short-term behaviour of neighbouring faults and volcanoes. Rapid estimates of these stress changes can provide the authorities managing the post-disaster situation with a useful tool to identify and monitor potential threads and to update the estimates of seismic and volcanic hazard in a region. Space geodesy is now routinely used following an earthquake to image the displacement of the ground and estimate the rupture geometry and the distribution of slip. Using the obtained source model, it is possible to evaluate the remaining moment deficit and to infer the stress changes on nearby faults and volcanoes produced by the earthquake, which can be used to identify which faults and volcanoes are brought closer to failure or activation. Although these procedures are commonly used today, the transference of these results to the authorities managing the post-disaster situation is not straightforward and thus its usefulness is reduced in practice. Here we propose a methodology to evaluate the potential influence of an earthquake on nearby faults and volcanoes and create easy-to-understand maps for decision-making support after an earthquake. We apply this methodology to the Mw 7.8, 2016 Ecuador earthquake. Using Sentinel-1 SAR and continuous GPS data, we measure the coseismic ground deformation and estimate the distribution of slip. Then we use this model to evaluate the moment deficit on the subduction interface and changes of stress on the surrounding faults and volcanoes. The results are compared with the seismic and volcanic events that have occurred after the earthquake. We discuss potential and limits of the methodology and the lessons learnt from discussion with local authorities.

  14. Source model for the 1997 Zirkuh earthquake (MW= 7.2) in Iran derived from JERS and ERS InSAR observations

    KAUST Repository

    Sudhaus, Henriette


    We present the first detailed source model of the 1997 M7.2 Zirkuh earthquake that ruptured the entire Abiz fault in East Iran producing a 125 km long, bended and segmented fault trace. Using SAR data from the ERS and JERS-1 satellites we first determined a multisegment fault model for this predominately strike-slip earthquake by estimating fault-segment dip, slip, and rake values using an evolutionary optimization algorithm. We then inverted the InSAR data for variable slip and rake in more detail along the multisegment fault plane. We complement our optimization with importance sampling of the model parameter space to ensure that the derived optimum model has a high likelihood, to detect correlations or trade-offs between model parameters, and to image the model resolution. Our results are in an agreement with field observations showing that this predominantly strike-slip earthquake had a clear change in style of faulting along its rupture. In the north we find that thrust faulting on a westerly dipping fault is accompanied with the strike-slip that changes to thrust faulting on an eastward dipping fault plane in the south. The centre part of the fault is vertical and has almost pure dextral strike-slip. The heterogeneous fault slip distribution shows two regions of low slip near significant fault step-overs of the Abiz fault and therefore these fault complexities appear to reduce the fault slip. Furthermore, shallow fault slip is generally reduced with respect to slip at depth. This shallow slip deficit varies along the Zirkuh fault from a small deficit in the North to a much larger deficit along the central part of the fault, a variation that is possibly related to different interseismic repose times.

  15. Short-period strain (0.1-105 s): Near-source strain field for an earthquake (M L 3.2) near San Juan Bautista, California (United States)

    Johnston, M. J. S.; Borcherdt, R. D.; Linde, A. T.


    Measurements of dilational earth strain in the frequency band 25-10-5 Hz have been made on a deep borehole strainmeter installed near the San Andreas fault. These data are used to determine seismic radiation fields during nuclear explosions, teleseisms, local earthquakes, and ground noise during seismically quiet times. Strains of less than 10-10 on these instruments can be clearly resolved at short periods (< 10 s) and are recorded with wide dynamic range digital recorders. This permits measurement of the static and dynamic strain variations in the near field of local earthquakes. Noise spectra for earth strain referenced to 1 (strain)2/Hz show that strain resolution decreases at about 10 dB per decade of frequency from -150 dB at 10-4 Hz to -223 dB at 10 Hz. Exact expressions are derived to relate the volumetric strain and displacement field for a homogeneous P wave in a general viscoelastic solid as observed on colocated dilatometers and seismometers. A rare near-field recording of strain and seismic velocity was obtained on May 26, 1984, from an earthquake (ML 3.2) at a hypocentral distance of 3.2 km near the San Andreas fault at San Juan Bautista, California. While the data indicate no precursory strain release at the 5 × 10-11 strain level, a coseismic strain release of 1.86 nanostrain was observed. This change in strain is consistent with that calculated from a simple dislocation model of the event. Ground displacement spectra, determined from the downhole strain data and instrument-corrected surface seismic data, suggest that source parameters estimated from surface recordings may be contaminated by amplification effects in near-surface low-velocity materials.

  16. A Preliminary Analysis on the Dynamics of the Ms8.0 Great Wenchuan, Sichuan, China Earthquake (United States)

    Zhang, W.


    On May 12, 2008, a huge earthquake with magnitude Ms8.0 occurred in the Wenhuan, Sichuan Province of China. This event was the most devastating earthquake in the mainland of China since the 1976 M7.8 Tangshan earthquake. It resulted in tremendous losses of life and property. So far, there are 69,181 persons killed, and 18,522 still missing. Due to occur in the mountainous area, this great earthquake and the following thousands aftershocks also caused many other geological disasters, such as landslide, mud-rock flow and "quake lakes" which formed by landslide-induced reservoirs. This earthquake occurred along the Longmenshan fault, as the result of motion on a northeast striking reverse fault or thrust fault on the northwestern margin of the Sichuan Basin. The earthquake's epicenter and focal-mechanism are consistent with it having occurred as the result of movement on the Longmenshan fault or a tectonically related fault. The earthquake reflects tectonic stresses resulting from the convergence of crustal material slowly moving from the high Tibetan Plateau, to the west, against strong crust underlying the Sichuan Basin and southeastern China. In this study, the spatial and temporal distribution of the stress on the fault plane of this great earthquake is estimated from the inversion results (Chen Ji, 2008) by solving the elastodynamic equations. Then, the dynamic source parameters are determined and the relations between the shear stress and the slip, the shear stress and the slip-rate for all grid positions on the fault are investigated. Finally, the frictional law for the source rupture is inferred from the dynamic source parameters. Based on the obtained dynamic source parameters, we try to rebuild the dynamic rupture process of this event and discuss the characteristics of this great earthquake.

  17. PICTURES (Pisagua/Iquique Crustal Tomography to Understand the Region of the Earthquake Source): seismic imaging of the source region of the April 1, 2014 Mw 8.2 earthquake offshore northern Chile (United States)

    Trehu, A. M.


    The 2014 event partially filled a well-recognized seismic gap that had not experienced a large earthquake since a pair of devastating M9 events in 1868 and 1877. The rupture sequence was marked by an unusually long and distinct precursory period that was well recorded by onshore seismic and geodetic instruments of the Integrated Plate Boundary Observatory Chile (IPOC). The pattern of foreshock activity, which defined a "classic" Mogi donut, is correlated with a circular residual gravity high that surrounds the patch of greatest slip during the main shock. Aftershocks generally propagated to the south and stopped in a region of relatively low pre-earthquake coupling. The remaining nearly 300-km long seismic gap is correlated with a distinct forearc residual gravity high. The correlation between the pre-, syn- and post-earthquake deformation patterns and the residual gravity anomalies indicates that crustal structure affects the distribution of seismic and aseismic deformation in response to plate convergence. Because the non-uniqueness inherent in modeling gravity data does not allow for a detailed geologic interpretation of the correlation between structure and slip, we conducted an ambitious seismic experiment using the R/V Marcus Langseth to acquire 5000 km of multichannel seismic seismic data using an 8-12.5-km long streamer and a 6600 cubic inch tuned air-gun array. The 45000 shots were also recorded on 70 ocean-bottom and 50 land-based seismometers. Shipboard analysis of the data indicates that the Moho of the Nazca plate is well imaged west of the trench, that deformation is distributed throughout the outer 10 km of the accretionary wedge as the rough topography of the Nazca plate is subducted, and that a reflection tentatively interpreted to be the plate boundary can be imaged continuously from the trench to the coast on at least one transect across the margin. Post-cruise data analysis is underway to process the MCS data using various techniques to

  18. Early mantle heterogeneities in the Réunion hotspot source inferred from highly siderophile elements in cumulate xenoliths (United States)

    Peters, Bradley J.; Day, James M. D.; Taylor, Lawrence A.


    Ultramafic cumulate rocks form during intrusive crystallization of high-MgO magmas, incorporating relatively high abundances of compatible elements, including Cr and Ni, and high abundances of the highly siderophile elements (HSE: Os, Ir, Ru, Pt, Pd, Re). Here, we utilize a suite of cumulate xenoliths from Piton de la Fournaise, La Réunion (Indian Ocean), to examine the mantle source composition of the Réunion hotspot using HSE abundances and Os isotopes. Dunite and wherlite xenoliths and associated lavas from the Piton de la Fournaise volcanic complex span a range of MgO contents (46 to 7 wt.%), yet exhibit remarkably homogeneous 187Os/188Os (0.1324 ± 0.0014, 2σ), representing the Os-isotopic composition of Réunion hotspot primary melts. A significant fraction of the xenoliths also have primitive upper-mantle (PUM) normalized HSE patterns with elevated Ru and Pd (PUM-normalized Ru/Ir and Pd/Ir of 0.8-6.3 and 0.2-7.2, respectively). These patterns are not artifacts of alteration, fractional crystallization, or partial melting processes, but rather require a primary magma with similar relative enrichments. Some highly olivine-phyric (>40 modal percent olivine) Piton de la Fournaise lavas also preserve these relative Ru and Pd enrichments, while others preserve a pattern that is likely related to sulfur saturation in evolved melts. The estimate of HSE abundances in PUM indicates high Ru/Ir and Pd/Pt values relative to carbonaceous, ordinary and enstatite chondrite meteorite groups. Thus, the existence of cumulate rocks with even more fractionated HSE patterns relative to PUM suggests that the Réunion hotspot samples a yet unrecognized mantle source. The origin of fractionated HSE patterns in Réunion melts may arise from sampling of a mantle source that experienced limited late accretion (isotopic signatures of Réunion, which plot near the convergence point of isotopic data for many hotspots, such a conclusion provides evidence for an early differentiated and

  19. Quantifying variability in earthquake rupture models using multidimensional scaling: application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    KAUST Repository

    Razafindrakoto, Hoby


    Finite-fault earthquake source inversion is an ill-posed inverse problem leading to non-unique solutions. In addition, various fault parametrizations and input data may have been used by different researchers for the same earthquake. Such variability leads to large intra-event variability in the inferred rupture models. One way to understand this problem is to develop robust metrics to quantify model variability. We propose a Multi Dimensional Scaling (MDS) approach to compare rupture models quantitatively. We consider normalized squared and grey-scale metrics that reflect the variability in the location, intensity and geometry of the source parameters. We test the approach on two-dimensional random fields generated using a von Kármán autocorrelation function and varying its spectral parameters. The spread of points in the MDS solution indicates different levels of model variability. We observe that the normalized squared metric is insensitive to variability of spectral parameters, whereas the grey-scale metric is sensitive to small-scale changes in geometry. From this benchmark, we formulate a similarity scale to rank the rupture models. As case studies, we examine inverted models from the Source Inversion Validation (SIV) exercise and published models of the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake, allowing us to test our approach for a case with a known reference model and one with an unknown true solution. The normalized squared and grey-scale metrics are respectively sensitive to the overall intensity and the extension of the three classes of slip (very large, large, and low). Additionally, we observe that a three-dimensional MDS configuration is preferable for models with large variability. We also find that the models for the Tohoku earthquake derived from tsunami data and their corresponding predictions cluster with a systematic deviation from other models. We demonstrate the stability of the MDS point-cloud using a number of realizations and jackknife tests, for

  20. 3D Dynamic Rupture process ans Near Source Ground Motion Simulation Using the Discrete Element Method: Application to the 1999 Chi-chi and 2000 Tottori Earthquakes (United States)

    Dalguer Gudiel, L. A.; Irikura, K.


    We performed a 3D model to simulate the dynamic rupture of a pre-existing fault and near-source ground motion of actual earthquakes solving the elastodynamic equation of motion using the 3D Discrete Element Method (DEM). The DEM is widely employed in engineering to designate lumped mass models in a truss arrangement, as opposed to FEM (Finite Element) models that may also consist of lumped masses, but normally require to mount a full stiffness matrix for response determination. The term has also been used for models of solids consisting of assemblies of discrete elements, such as spheres in elastic contact, employed in the analysis of perforation or penetration of concrete or rock. It should be noted that the designation Lattice Models, common in Physics, may be more adequate, although it omits reference to a fundamental property of the approach, which is the lumped-mass representation. In the present DEM formulation, the method models any orthotropic elastic solid. It is constructed by a three dimensional periodic truss-like structures using cubic elements that consists of lumping masses in nodal points, which are interconnected by unidimensional elements. The method was previously used in 2D to simulate in a simplified way the 1999 Chi-chi (Taiwan) earthquake (Dalguer et. al., 2000). Now the method was extended to resolve 3D problems. We apply the model to simulate the dynamic rupture process and near source ground motion of the 1999 Chi-chi (Taiwan) and the 2000 Tottori (Japan) earthquakes. The attractive feature in the problem under consideration is the possibility of introducing internal cracks or fractures with little computational effort and without increasing the number of degrees of freedom. For the 3D dynamic spontaneous rupture simulation of these eartquakes we need to know: the geometry of the fault, the initial stress distribution along the fault, the stress drop distribution, the strength of the fault to break and the critical slip (because slip

  1. The Earthquake‐Source Inversion Validation (SIV) Project

    KAUST Repository

    Mai, Paul Martin


    Finite-fault earthquake source inversions infer the (time-dependent) displacement on the rupture surface from geophysical data. The resulting earthquake source models document the complexity of the rupture process. However, multiple source models for the same earthquake, obtained by different research teams, often exhibit remarkable dissimilarities. To address the uncertainties in earthquake-source inversion methods and to understand strengths and weaknesses of the various approaches used, the Source Inversion Validation (SIV) project conducts a set of forward-modeling exercises and inversion benchmarks. In this article, we describe the SIV strategy, the initial benchmarks, and current SIV results. Furthermore, we apply statistical tools for quantitative waveform comparison and for investigating source-model (dis)similarities that enable us to rank the solutions, and to identify particularly promising source inversion approaches. All SIV exercises (with related data and descriptions) and statistical comparison tools are available via an online collaboration platform, and we encourage source modelers to use the SIV benchmarks for developing and testing new methods. We envision that the SIV efforts will lead to new developments for tackling the earthquake-source imaging problem.

  2. 2011 Van earthquake (Mw=7.2) aftershocks using the source spectra an approach to real-time estimation of moment magnitude (United States)

    Meral Ozel, N.; Kusmezer, A.


    The Converging Grid Search (CGS) algorithm was tested on broadband waveforms data from large aftershocks of the October 23, Van earthquake with the hypocentral distances within 0-300 km over a magnitude range of 4.0≤M≤5.6.Observed displacement spectra were virtually well adapted to the Brune's source model in the whole frequency range for many waveforms.The estimated Mw solutions were compared to global CMT catalogue solutions, and were seen to be in good agreement. To estimate Mw from a shear-wave displacement spectrum, an automatic routine named as CGS was applied to attempt to test and develop a method for stable moment magnitude estimation to be used as a real-time operation.The spectra were corrected for average an elastic attenuation and geometrical spreading factors and then were scaled to compute moment at the long period asymptote where the spectral plateau for 0 Hz is flat.For this aim, an automatic procedure was utilized: 1)calculating the displacement spectra for vertical components at a given station, 2)estimating corner frequency and seismic moment using CGS which is based on minimizing the differences between observed and synthetic source spectra, 3)calculating moment magnitude from seismic moment for each station separately, and then are averaged to give the mean values of each event. The best fitting iteration of these parameters was obtained after a few seconds. The noise spectrum was also computed to suggest a comparison between signals to noise ratio before performing the inversion.Weak events with low SNR were excluded from the computations. The method examined on the Van earthquake aftershock dataset proved that it is applicable to have stable and reliable estimates of magnitude for the routine processing within a few seconds from the initial P wave detection though the location estimation is necessary.This allows a fast determination of Mw magnitude and assist to measure physical quantities of the source available for the real time

  3. A study of source parameters and attenuation of earthquakes in a regime of subduction in the east of Venezuela using Genetic Algorithms (United States)

    Granado, C.; Vasquez, R.


    A sample of 50 earthquakes associated with the regime of subduction in the east of Venezuela has been analyzed in order to determine the following source parameters: seismic moment, stress drop and attenuation Q. The spectral content of the seismograms of this sample was studied with Brune´s model as a basic reference, while the numerical treatment- by means of Genetic Algorithms. The studied seismograms were obtained through the network of the Venezuelan Seismological Foundation, with FUNVISIS broadband sensors detecting noise signals for calculating Q. The spectral analysis of seismograms of this sample reveals preliminary values for M0 between 6.E+9 to 8.5E+12 Nm. When considering attenuation Q for frequencies of 2, 5, 4, 8 and 10 Hertz, a variable Q was obtained from 125 to 590, indicating a different tectonic behavior compared to a sample of superficial seismicity of greater attenuation for the same geographic region. Additionally, the correlation between Q(P) and Q(S) for the earthquakes of the relevant region was investigated.

  4. Earthquakes Sources Parameter Estimation of 20080917 and 20081114 Near Semangko Fault, Sumatra Using Three Components of Local Waveform Recorded by IA Network Station

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available The 17/09/2008 22:04:80 UTC and 14/11/2008 00:27:31.70 earthquakes near Semangko fault were analyzed to identify the fault planes. The two events were relocated to assess physical insight against the hypocenter uncertainty. The datas used to determine source parameters of both earthquakes were three components of local waveform recorded by Geofon broadband IA network stations, (MDSI, LWLI, BLSI and RBSI for the event of 17/09/2008 and (MDSI, LWLI, BLSI and KSI for the event of 14/11/2008. Distance from the epicenter to all station was less than 5°. Moment tensor solution of two events was simultaneously analyzed by determination of the centroid position. Simultaneous analysis covered hypocenter position, centroid position and nodal planes of two events indicated Semangko fault planes. Considering that the Semangko fault zone is a high seismicity area, the identification of the seismic fault is important for the seismic hazard investigation in the region.

  5. Fossil landscapes and youthful seismogenic sources in the central Apennines: excerpts from the 24 August 2016, Amatrice earthquake and seismic hazard implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gianluca Valensise


    Full Text Available We show and discuss the similarities among the 2016 Amatrice (Mw 6.0, 1997 Colfiorito-Sellano (Mw 6.0-5.6 and 2009 L’Aquila (Mw 6.3 earthquakes. They all occurred along the crest of the central Apennines and were caused by shallow dipping faults between 3 and 10 km depth, as shown by their characteristic InSAR signature. We contend that these earthquakes delineate a seismogenic style that is characteristic of this portion of the central Apennines, where the upward propagation of seismogenic faults is hindered by the presence of pre-existing regional thrusts. This leads to an effective decoupling between the deeper seismogenic portion of the upper crust and its uppermost 3 km.The decoupling implies that active faults mapped at the surface do not connect with the seismogenic sources, and that their evolution may be controlled by passive readjustments to coseismic strains or even by purely gravitational motions. Seismic hazard analyses and estimates based on such faults should hence be considered with great caution as they may be all but representative of the true seismogenic potential.

  6. Near-source high-rate GPS, strong motion and InSAR observations to image the 2015 Lefkada (Greece) Earthquake rupture history. (United States)

    Avallone, Antonio; Cirella, Antonella; Cheloni, Daniele; Tolomei, Cristiano; Theodoulidis, Nikos; Piatanesi, Alessio; Briole, Pierre; Ganas, Athanassios


    The 2015/11/17 Lefkada (Greece) earthquake ruptured a segment of the Cephalonia Transform Fault (CTF) where probably the penultimate major event was in 1948. Using near-source strong motion and high sampling rate GPS data and Sentinel-1A SAR images on two tracks, we performed the inversion for the geometry, slip distribution and rupture history of the causative fault with a three-step self-consistent procedure, in which every step provided input parameters for the next one. Our preferred model results in a ~70° ESE-dipping and ~13° N-striking fault plane, with a strike-slip mechanism (rake ~169°) in agreement with the CTF tectonic regime. This model shows a bilateral propagation spanning ~9 s with the activation of three main slip patches, characterized by rise time and peak slip velocity in the ranges 2.5-3.5 s and 1.4-2.4 m/s, respectively, corresponding to 1.2-1.8 m of slip which is mainly concentrated in the shallower ( 6) earthquakes to the northern and to the southern boundaries of the 2015 causative fault cannot be excluded.

  7. Characteristics of debris avalanche deposits inferred from source volume estimate and hummock morphology around Mt. Erciyes, central Turkey (United States)

    Hayakawa, Yuichi S.; Yoshida, Hidetsugu; Obanawa, Hiroyuki; Naruhashi, Ryutaro; Okumura, Koji; Zaiki, Masumi; Kontani, Ryoichi


    Debris avalanches caused by volcano sector collapse often form characteristic depositional landforms such as hummocks. Sedimentological and geomorphological analyses of debris avalanche deposits (DADs) are crucial to clarify the size, mechanisms, and emplacement of debris avalanches. We describe the morphology of hummocks on the northeastern flank of Mt. Erciyes in Kayseri, central Turkey, likely formed in the late Pleistocene. Using a remotely piloted aircraft system (RPAS) and the structure-from-motion and multi-view stereo (SfM-MVS) photogrammetry, we obtained high-definition digital elevation model (DEM) and orthorectified images of the hummocks to investigate their geometric features. We estimated the source volume of the DAD by reconstructing the topography of the volcano edifice using a satellite-based DEM. We examined the topographic cross sections based on the slopes around the scar regarded as remnant topography. Spatial distribution of hummocks is anomalously concentrated at a certain distance from the source, unlike those that follow the distance-size relationship. The high-definition land surface data by RPAS and SfM revealed that many of the hummocks are aligned toward the flow direction of the debris avalanche, suggesting that the extensional regime of the debris avalanche was dominant. However, some displaced hummocks were also found, indicating that the compressional regime of the flow contributed to the formation of hummocks. These indicate that the flow and emplacement of the avalanche were constrained by the topography. The existing caldera wall forced the initial eastward flow to move northward, and the north-side caldera wall forced the flow into the narrow and steepened outlet valley where the sliding debris underwent a compressional regime, and out into the unconfined terrain where the debris was most likely emplaced on an extensional regime. Also, the estimated volume of 12-15 × 108 m3 gives a mean thickness of 60-75 m, which is much

  8. Characteristics of debris avalanche deposits inferred from source volume estimate and hummock morphology around Mt. Erciyes, central Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. S. Hayakawa


    Full Text Available Debris avalanches caused by volcano sector collapse often form characteristic depositional landforms such as hummocks. Sedimentological and geomorphological analyses of debris avalanche deposits (DADs are crucial to clarify the size, mechanisms, and emplacement of debris avalanches. We describe the morphology of hummocks on the northeastern flank of Mt. Erciyes in Kayseri, central Turkey, likely formed in the late Pleistocene. Using a remotely piloted aircraft system (RPAS and the structure-from-motion and multi-view stereo (SfM–MVS photogrammetry, we obtained high-definition digital elevation model (DEM and orthorectified images of the hummocks to investigate their geometric features. We estimated the source volume of the DAD by reconstructing the topography of the volcano edifice using a satellite-based DEM. We examined the topographic cross sections based on the slopes around the scar regarded as remnant topography. Spatial distribution of hummocks is anomalously concentrated at a certain distance from the source, unlike those that follow the distance–size relationship. The high-definition land surface data by RPAS and SfM revealed that many of the hummocks are aligned toward the flow direction of the debris avalanche, suggesting that the extensional regime of the debris avalanche was dominant. However, some displaced hummocks were also found, indicating that the compressional regime of the flow contributed to the formation of hummocks. These indicate that the flow and emplacement of the avalanche were constrained by the topography. The existing caldera wall forced the initial eastward flow to move northward, and the north-side caldera wall forced the flow into the narrow and steepened outlet valley where the sliding debris underwent a compressional regime, and out into the unconfined terrain where the debris was most likely emplaced on an extensional regime. Also, the estimated volume of 12–15 × 108 m3 gives a mean thickness of

  9. Seismicity of Romania: fractal properties of earthquake space, time and energy distributions and their correlation with segmentation of subducted lithosphere and Vrancea seismic source

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Popescu, E.; Ardeleanu, L.; Bazacliu, O.; Popa, M.; Radulian, M.; Rizescu, M.


    For any strategy of seismic hazard assessment, it is important to set a realistic seismic input such as: delimitation of seismogenic zones, geometry of seismic sources, seismicity regime, focal mechanism and stress field. The aim of the present project is a systematic investigation focused on the problem of Vrancea seismic regime at different time, space and energy scales which can offer a crucial information on the seismogenic process of this peculiar seismic area. The departures from linearity of the time, space and energy distributions are associated with inhomogeneities in the subducting slab, rheology, tectonic stress distribution and focal mechanism. The significant variations are correlated with the existence of active and inactive segments along the seismogenic zone, the deviation from linearity of the frequency-magnitude distribution is associated with the existence of different earthquake generation models and the nonlinearities showed in the time series are related with the occurrence of the major earthquakes. Another important purpose of the project is to analyze the main crustal seismic sequences generated on the Romanian territory in the following regions: Ramnicu Sarat, Fagaras-Campulung, Banat. Time, space and energy distributions together with the source parameters and scaling relations are investigated. The analysis of the seismicity and clustering properties of the earthquakes generated in both Vrancea intermediate-depth region and Romanian crustal seismogenic zones, achieved within this project, constitutes the starting point for the study of seismic zoning, seismic hazard and earthquake prediction. The data set consists of Vrancea subcrustal earthquake catalogue (since 1974 and continuously updated) and catalogues with events located in the other crustal seimogenic zones of Romania. To build up these data sets, high-quality information made available through multiple international cooperation programs is considered. The results obtained up to

  10. BrO and inferred Bry profiles over the western Pacific: relevance of inorganic bromine sources and a Bry minimum in the aged tropical tropopause layer (United States)

    Koenig, Theodore K.; Volkamer, Rainer; Baidar, Sunil; Dix, Barbara; Wang, Siyuan; Anderson, Daniel C.; Salawitch, Ross J.; Wales, Pamela A.; Cuevas, Carlos A.; Fernandez, Rafael P.; Saiz-Lopez, Alfonso; Evans, Mathew J.; Sherwen, Tomás; Jacob, Daniel J.; Schmidt, Johan; Kinnison, Douglas; Lamarque, Jean-François; Apel, Eric C.; Bresch, James C.; Campos, Teresa; Flocke, Frank M.; Hall, Samuel R.; Honomichl, Shawn B.; Hornbrook, Rebecca; Jensen, Jørgen B.; Lueb, Richard; Montzka, Denise D.; Pan, Laura L.; Reeves, J. Michael; Schauffler, Sue M.; Ullmann, Kirk; Weinheimer, Andrew J.; Atlas, Elliot L.; Donets, Valeria; Navarro, Maria A.; Riemer, Daniel; Blake, Nicola J.; Chen, Dexian; Huey, L. Gregory; Tanner, David J.; Hanisco, Thomas F.; Wolfe, Glenn M.


    We report measurements of bromine monoxide (BrO) and use an observationally constrained chemical box model to infer total gas-phase inorganic bromine (Bry) over the tropical western Pacific Ocean (tWPO) during the CONTRAST field campaign (January-February 2014). The observed BrO and inferred Bry profiles peak in the marine boundary layer (MBL), suggesting the need for a bromine source from sea-salt aerosol (SSA), in addition to organic bromine (CBry). Both profiles are found to be C-shaped with local maxima in the upper free troposphere (FT). The median tropospheric BrO vertical column density (VCD) was measured as 1.6×1013 molec cm-2, compared to model predictions of 0.9×1013 molec cm-2 in GEOS-Chem (CBry but no SSA source), 0.4×1013 molec cm-2 in CAM-Chem (CBry and SSA), and 2.1×1013 molec cm-2 in GEOS-Chem (CBry and SSA). Neither global model fully captures the C-shape of the Bry profile. A local Bry maximum of 3.6 ppt (2.9-4.4 ppt; 95 % confidence interval, CI) is inferred between 9.5 and 13.5 km in air masses influenced by recent convective outflow. Unlike BrO, which increases from the convective tropical tropopause layer (TTL) to the aged TTL, gas-phase Bry decreases from the convective TTL to the aged TTL. Analysis of gas-phase Bry against multiple tracers (CFC-11, H2O / O3 ratio, and potential temperature) reveals a Bry minimum of 2.7 ppt (2.3-3.1 ppt; 95 % CI) in the aged TTL, which agrees closely with a stratospheric injection of 2.6 ± 0.6 ppt of inorganic Bry (estimated from CFC-11 correlations), and is remarkably insensitive to assumptions about heterogeneous chemistry. Bry increases to 6.3 ppt (5.6-7.0 ppt; 95 % CI) in the stratospheric "middleworld" and 6.9 ppt (6.5-7.3 ppt; 95 % CI) in the stratospheric "overworld". The local Bry minimum in the aged TTL is qualitatively (but not quantitatively) captured by CAM-Chem, and suggests a more complex partitioning of gas-phase and aerosol Bry species than previously recognized. Our data provide

  11. BrO and inferred Bry profiles over the western Pacific: relevance of inorganic bromine sources and a Bry minimum in the aged tropical tropopause layer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. K. Koenig


    Full Text Available We report measurements of bromine monoxide (BrO and use an observationally constrained chemical box model to infer total gas-phase inorganic bromine (Bry over the tropical western Pacific Ocean (tWPO during the CONTRAST field campaign (January–February 2014. The observed BrO and inferred Bry profiles peak in the marine boundary layer (MBL, suggesting the need for a bromine source from sea-salt aerosol (SSA, in addition to organic bromine (CBry. Both profiles are found to be C-shaped with local maxima in the upper free troposphere (FT. The median tropospheric BrO vertical column density (VCD was measured as 1.6×1013 molec cm−2, compared to model predictions of 0.9×1013 molec cm−2 in GEOS-Chem (CBry but no SSA source, 0.4×1013 molec cm−2 in CAM-Chem (CBry and SSA, and 2.1×1013 molec cm−2 in GEOS-Chem (CBry and SSA. Neither global model fully captures the C-shape of the Bry profile. A local Bry maximum of 3.6 ppt (2.9–4.4 ppt; 95 % confidence interval, CI is inferred between 9.5 and 13.5 km in air masses influenced by recent convective outflow. Unlike BrO, which increases from the convective tropical tropopause layer (TTL to the aged TTL, gas-phase Bry decreases from the convective TTL to the aged TTL. Analysis of gas-phase Bry against multiple tracers (CFC-11, H2O ∕ O3 ratio, and potential temperature reveals a Bry minimum of 2.7 ppt (2.3–3.1 ppt; 95 % CI in the aged TTL, which agrees closely with a stratospheric injection of 2.6 ± 0.6 ppt of inorganic Bry (estimated from CFC-11 correlations, and is remarkably insensitive to assumptions about heterogeneous chemistry. Bry increases to 6.3 ppt (5.6–7.0 ppt; 95 % CI in the stratospheric "middleworld" and 6.9 ppt (6.5–7.3 ppt; 95 % CI in the stratospheric "overworld". The local Bry minimum in the aged TTL is qualitatively (but not quantitatively captured by CAM-Chem, and suggests a more complex partitioning of gas-phase and

  12. A new Bayesian Earthquake Analysis Tool (BEAT) (United States)

    Vasyura-Bathke, Hannes; Dutta, Rishabh; Jónsson, Sigurjón; Mai, Martin


    Modern earthquake source estimation studies increasingly use non-linear optimization strategies to estimate kinematic rupture parameters, often considering geodetic and seismic data jointly. However, the optimization process is complex and consists of several steps that need to be followed in the earthquake parameter estimation procedure. These include pre-describing or modeling the fault geometry, calculating the Green's Functions (often assuming a layered elastic half-space), and estimating the distributed final slip and possibly other kinematic source parameters. Recently, Bayesian inference has become popular for estimating posterior distributions of earthquake source model parameters given measured/estimated/assumed data and model uncertainties. For instance, some research groups consider uncertainties of the layered medium and propagate these to the source parameter uncertainties. Other groups make use of informative priors to reduce the model parameter space. In addition, innovative sampling algorithms have been developed that efficiently explore the often high-dimensional parameter spaces. Compared to earlier studies, these improvements have resulted in overall more robust source model parameter estimates that include uncertainties. However, the computational demands of these methods are high and estimation codes are rarely distributed along with the published results. Even if codes are made available, it is often difficult to assemble them into a single optimization framework as they are typically coded in different programing languages. Therefore, further progress and future applications of these methods/codes are hampered, while reproducibility and validation of results has become essentially impossible. In the spirit of providing open-access and modular codes to facilitate progress and reproducible research in earthquake source estimations, we undertook the effort of producing BEAT, a python package that comprises all the above-mentioned features in one

  13. Molecular inference of sources and spreading patterns of Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasites in internally displaced persons settlements in Myanmar-China border area. (United States)

    Lo, Eugenia; Zhou, Guofa; Oo, Winny; Lee, Ming-Chieh; Baum, Elisabeth; Felgner, Philip L; Yang, Zhaoqing; Cui, Liwang; Yan, Guiyun


    In Myanmar, civil unrest and establishment of internally displaced persons (IDP) settlement along the Myanmar-China border have impacted malaria transmission. The growing IDP populations raise deep concerns about health impact on local communities. Microsatellite markers were used to examine the source and spreading patterns of Plasmodium falciparum between IDP settlement and surrounding villages in Myanmar along the China border. Genotypic structure of P. falciparum was compared over the past three years from the same area and the demographic history was inferred to determine the source of recent infections. In addition, we examined if border migration is a factor of P. falciparum infections in China by determining gene flow patterns across borders. Compared to local community, the IDP samples showed a reduced and consistently lower genetic diversity over the past three years. A strong signature of genetic bottleneck was detected in the IDP samples. P. falciparum infections from the border regions in China were genetically similar to Myanmar and parasite gene flow was not constrained by geographical distance. Reduced genetic diversity of P. falciparum suggested intense malaria control within the IDP settlement. Human movement was a key factor to the spread of malaria both locally in Myanmar and across the international border. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Kinematic source inversion of the 2017 Puebla-Morelos, Mexico earthquake (2017/09/19, Mw.7.1) (United States)

    Iglesias, A.; Castro-Artola, O.; Hjorleifsdottir, V.; Singh, S. K.; Ji, C.; Franco-Sánchez, S. I.


    On September 19th 2017, an Mw 7.1 earthquake struck Central Mexico, causing severe damage in the epicentral region, especially in several small and medium size houses as well as historical buildings like churches and government offices. In Mexico City, at a distance of 100km from the epicenter, 38 buildings collapsed. Authorities reported that 369 persons were killed by the earthquake (> 60% in the Mexico City). We determined the hypocentral location (18.406N, 98.706W, d=57km), from regional data, situating this earthquake inside the subducted Cocos Plate, with a normal fault mechanism (Globalcmt: =300°, =44°, and =-82°). In this presentation we show the the slip on the fault plane, determined by 1) a frequency-domain inversion using local and regional acceleration records that have been numerically integrated twice and bandpass filtered between 2 and 30, and 2) a wavelet domain inversion using teleseismic body and surface-waves, filtered between 1-100 s and 50-150 s respectively, as well as static offsets. In both methods the fault plane is divided into subfaults, and for each subfault we invert for the average slip, and timing of initiation of slip. In the first method the slip direction is fixed to the ? direction and we invert for the rise time. In the second method the direction of slip is estimated, with values between -90 and +90 allowed, and the time history is an asymmetric cosine time function, for which we determine the "rise" and "fall" durations. For both methods, synthetic seismograms, based on the GlobalCMT focal mechanism, are computed for each subfault-station pair and for three components (Z, N-S, EW). Preliminary results, using local data, show some slip concentrated close to the hypocentral location and a large patch 20 km in NW direction far from the origin. Using teleseismic data, it is difficult to distinguish between the two fault planes, as the waveforms are equally well fit using either one of them. However, both are consistent with a

  15. Source parameters for 11 earthquakes in the Tien Shan, central Asia, determined by P and SH waveform inversion (United States)

    Nelson, Michael R.; Mccaffrey, Robert; Molnar, Peter


    The style and the distribution of faulting occurring today in the Tien Shan region were studied, by digitizing long-period World-Wide Standard Seismograph Network P and SH waveforms of 11 of the largest Tien Shan earthquakes between 1965 and 1982 and then using a least squares inversion routine to constrain their fault plane solutions and depths. The results of the examination indicate that north-south shortening is presently occurring in the Tien Shan, with the formation of basement uplifts flanked by moderately dipping thrust faults. The present-day tectonics of the Tien Shan seem to be analogous to those of the Rocky Mountains in Colorado, Wyoming, and Utah during the Laramide orogeny in Late Cretaceous and Early Tertiary time.

  16. Ray Tracing for Dispersive Tsunamis and Source Amplitude Estimation Based on Green's Law: Application to the 2015 Volcanic Tsunami Earthquake Near Torishima, South of Japan (United States)

    Sandanbata, Osamu; Watada, Shingo; Satake, Kenji; Fukao, Yoshio; Sugioka, Hiroko; Ito, Aki; Shiobara, Hajime


    Ray tracing, which has been widely used for seismic waves, was also applied to tsunamis to examine the bathymetry effects during propagation, but it was limited to linear shallow-water waves. Green's law, which is based on the conservation of energy flux, has been used to estimate tsunami amplitude on ray paths. In this study, we first propose a new ray tracing method extended to dispersive tsunamis. By using an iterative algorithm to map two-dimensional tsunami velocity fields at different frequencies, ray paths at each frequency can be traced. We then show that Green's law is valid only outside the source region and that extension of Green's law is needed for source amplitude estimation. As an application example, we analyzed tsunami waves generated by an earthquake that occurred at a submarine volcano, Smith Caldera, near Torishima, Japan, in 2015. The ray-tracing results reveal that the ray paths are very dependent on its frequency, particularly at deep oceans. The validity of our frequency-dependent ray tracing is confirmed by the comparison of arrival angles and travel times with those of observed tsunami waveforms at an array of ocean bottom pressure gauges. The tsunami amplitude at the source is nearly twice or more of that just outside the source estimated from the array tsunami data by Green's law.

  17. Source and ground-motion parameters of the 2011 Lorca earthquake; Parametros de la fuente y del movimiento del suelo del terremoto de Lorca de 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alguacil de la Blanca, G.; Vidal Sanchez, F.; Stich, D.; Mancilla Perez, F. L.; Lopez Comino, J. A.; Morales Soto, J.; Navarro Bernal, M.


    113 events of the Lorca seismic series has been relocated by using Double difference algorithm and data from both temporary and permanent seismic networks. Relocations yield shallow hypo central distribution of aftershocks with a {approx}5 km long, NE-SW trending, placed SW of the mainshock, suggesting a SW propagating rupture along the Alhama de Murcia fault. Similar oblique reverse faulting mechanism has been obtained for three largest events. Source parameters of these three earthquakes have been estimated. Horizontal ground motion was estimated at 11 city points whose local structure was known by SPAC experiments. A set of ground motion parameters (PGA, PGV, AI, CAV, SI, SA and SV) here calculated, have higher values at these points respect to the ones at LOR station. All parameter values are also above the expected values for Euro -Mediterranean earthquakes with local intensity VIII (EMS). Nevertheless, SD values are unusually short and less than the reference ones. Higher values of the response spectra of acceleration and velocity are given for periods of less than 0.7 s, with maximum spectral acceleration at 0.15 s and velocity at 0.5 s. The elastic input energy spectrum is well connected to the shake destructiveness in each place. Equivalent velocity > 60 cm/s is found in almost all sites and > 100 cm/s (for periods 0.3 to 0.6 s) in someone. Factors such as proximity, and focal mechanism and ground response characteristics explain the high ground motion parameter values obtained in Lorca sites and show the great influence of the source and site conditions on the characteristics of strong ground motion in the vicinity of the rupture. (Author) 68 refs.

  18. U.S. Tsunami Information technology (TIM) Modernization:Developing a Maintainable and Extensible Open Source Earthquake and Tsunami Warning System (United States)

    Hellman, S. B.; Lisowski, S.; Baker, B.; Hagerty, M.; Lomax, A.; Leifer, J. M.; Thies, D. A.; Schnackenberg, A.; Barrows, J.


    Tsunami Information technology Modernization (TIM) is a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) project to update and standardize the earthquake and tsunami monitoring systems currently employed at the U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers in Ewa Beach, Hawaii (PTWC) and Palmer, Alaska (NTWC). While this project was funded by NOAA to solve a specific problem, the requirements that the delivered system be both open source and easily maintainable have resulted in the creation of a variety of open source (OS) software packages. The open source software is now complete and this is a presentation of the OS Software that has been funded by NOAA for benefit of the entire seismic community. The design architecture comprises three distinct components: (1) The user interface, (2) The real-time data acquisition and processing system and (3) The scientific algorithm library. The system follows a modular design with loose coupling between components. We now identify the major project constituents. The user interface, CAVE, is written in Java and is compatible with the existing National Weather Service (NWS) open source graphical system AWIPS. The selected real-time seismic acquisition and processing system is open source SeisComp3 (sc3). The seismic library (libseismic) contains numerous custom written and wrapped open source seismic algorithms (e.g., ML/mb/Ms/Mwp, mantle magnitude (Mm), w-phase moment tensor, bodywave moment tensor, finite-fault inversion, array processing). The seismic library is organized in a way (function naming and usage) that will be familiar to users of Matlab. The seismic library extends sc3 so that it can be called by the real-time system, but it can also be driven and tested outside of sc3, for example, by ObsPy or Earthworm. To unify the three principal components we have developed a flexible and lightweight communication layer called SeismoEdex.

  19. Field source characteristic of gravity variation in Hexi region before Menyuan Ms6.4 earthquake based on the Euler deconvolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fang Liu


    Full Text Available This study adopted the Euler deconvolution method to conduct an inversion and interpretation of the depth and spatial distribution pattern of field source that lead to gravity variation. For this purpose, mobile gravity data from four periods in the Hexi region between 2011 and 2015 were obtained from an observation network. With a newly established theoretical model, we acquired the optimum inversion parameters and conducted calculation and analysis with the actual data. The results indicate that one is the appropriate value of the structure index for the inversion of the mobile gravity data. The inversion results of the actual data showed a comparable spatial distribution of the field source and a consistent structural trend with observations from the Qilian-Haiyuan Fault zone between 2011 and 2015. The distribution was in a blocking state at the epicenter of the Menyuan earthquake in 2016. Our quantitative study of the field source provides new insights into the inversion and interpretation of signals of mobile gravity variation.

  20. Source characteristics of Yutian earthquake in 2008 inversed from co-seismic deformation field mapped by InSAR (United States)

    Shan, X.; Qu, C.; Zhang, G.; Wang, C.; Song, X.; Zhang, G.


    On 21 March 2008, an Ms7.3 earthquake occurred at Quickbird, Yutian County, Xinjiang. The earthquake is located in the depopulated Kunlun Mountains of an elevation over 5000m, featured by thin air, cold weather and extremely bad conditions, where field investigations would be formidable. Besides, there is no station for deformation measurements in an area of several hundreds km2 surrounding the epicenter. Consequently, there is little knowledge on the causative fault and coseismic deformation of this event. We attempt to fill this gap by means of satellite remote sensing and DInSAR (Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Rader).We attempt to reveal the features of the causative fault of this shock and its coseismic deformation field by a sensitivity- based iterative fitting (SBIF) method. Our work is based on analysis and interpretation to high-resolution satellite images as well as DInSAR data from the satellite Envisat SAR, coupled with seismicity, focal mechanism solutions and active tectonics in this region. The result shows that the 22km-long, nearly NS trending surface rupture zone by this event lies on a range-front alluvial platform in the Qira County. It is characterized by distinct linear traces and simple structure with 1~3m-wide individual seams and maximum 6.5m width of a collapse fracture. Along the rupture zone are seen many secondary fractures and fault-bounded blocks by collapse, exhibiting remarkable extension. The coseismic deformation affected a big range 100km and 40km. D-InSAR analysis indicates that the interferometric deformation field is dominated by extensional faulting with a small strike-slip component. Along the causative fault, the western wall fell down and the eastern wall, that is the active unit, rose up, both with westerly vergence.The minimum subsidence displacement is -2.6m in the LOS, and the maximum uplift is 1.2m. The maximum relative vertical dislocation reaches 4.1m,which is located at the distance of 10km along

  1. Prosecutor: parameter-free inference of gene function for prokaryotes using DNA microarray data, genomic context and multiple gene annotation sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van Hijum Sacha AFT


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite a plethora of functional genomic efforts, the function of many genes in sequenced genomes remains unknown. The increasing amount of microarray data for many species allows employing the guilt-by-association principle to predict function on a large scale: genes exhibiting similar expression patterns are more likely to participate in shared biological processes. Results We developed Prosecutor, an application that enables researchers to rapidly infer gene function based on available gene expression data and functional annotations. Our parameter-free functional prediction method uses a sensitive algorithm to achieve a high association rate of linking genes with unknown function to annotated genes. Furthermore, Prosecutor utilizes additional biological information such as genomic context and known regulatory mechanisms that are specific for prokaryotes. We analyzed publicly available transcriptome data sets and used literature sources to validate putative functions suggested by Prosecutor. We supply the complete results of our analysis for 11 prokaryotic organisms on a dedicated website. Conclusion The Prosecutor software and supplementary datasets available at allow researchers working on any of the analyzed organisms to quickly identify the putative functions of their genes of interest. A de novo analysis allows new organisms to be studied.

  2. A direct carbon budgeting approach to infer carbon sources and sinks. Design and synthetic application to complement the NACP observation network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crevoisier, Cyril; Gloor, Manuel; Gloaguen, Erwan; Sarmiento, Jorge L.


    In order to exploit the upcoming regular measurements of vertical carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) profiles over North America implemented in the framework of the North American Carbon Program (NACP), we design a direct carbon budgeting approach to infer carbon sources and sinks over the continent using model simulations. Direct budgeting puts a control volume on top of North America, balances air mass in- and outflows into the volume and solves for the surface fluxes. The flows are derived from the observations through a geostatistical interpolation technique called Kriging combined with transport fields from weather analysis. The use of CO 2 vertical profiles simulated by the atmospheric transport model MOZART-2 at the planned 19 stations of the NACP network has given an estimation of the error of 0.39 GtC/yr within the model world. Reducing this error may be achieved through a better estimation of mass fluxes associated with convective processes affecting North America. Complementary stations in the north-west and the north-east are also needed to resolve the variability of CO 2 in these regions. For instance, the addition of a single station near 52 deg N; 110 deg W is shown to decrease the estimation error to 0.34 GtC/yr

  3. Rupture, waves and earthquakes. (United States)

    Uenishi, Koji


    Normally, an earthquake is considered as a phenomenon of wave energy radiation by rupture (fracture) of solid Earth. However, the physics of dynamic process around seismic sources, which may play a crucial role in the occurrence of earthquakes and generation of strong waves, has not been fully understood yet. Instead, much of former investigation in seismology evaluated earthquake characteristics in terms of kinematics that does not directly treat such dynamic aspects and usually excludes the influence of high-frequency wave components over 1 Hz. There are countless valuable research outcomes obtained through this kinematics-based approach, but "extraordinary" phenomena that are difficult to be explained by this conventional description have been found, for instance, on the occasion of the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu, Japan, earthquake, and more detailed study on rupture and wave dynamics, namely, possible mechanical characteristics of (1) rupture development around seismic sources, (2) earthquake-induced structural failures and (3) wave interaction that connects rupture (1) and failures (2), would be indispensable.

  4. Some comparisons between mining-induced and laboratory earthquakes (United States)

    McGarr, A.


    Although laboratory stick-slip friction experiments have long been regarded as analogs to natural crustal earthquakes, the potential use of laboratory results for understanding the earthquake source mechanism has not been fully exploited because of essential difficulties in relating seismographic data to measurements made in the controlled laboratory environment. Mining-induced earthquakes, however, provide a means of calibrating the seismic data in terms of laboratory results because, in contrast to natural earthquakes, the causative forces as well as the hypocentral conditions are known. A comparison of stick-slip friction events in a large granite sample with mining-induced earthquakes in South Africa and Canada indicates both similarities and differences between the two phenomena. The physics of unstable fault slip appears to be largely the same for both types of events. For example, both laboratory and mining-induced earthquakes have very low seismic efficiencies {Mathematical expression} where ??a is the apparent stress and {Mathematical expression} is the average stress acting on the fault plane to cause slip; nearly all of the energy released by faulting is consumed in overcoming friction. In more detail, the mining-induced earthquakes differ from the laboratory events in the behavior of ?? as a function of seismic moment M0. Whereas for the laboratory events ?????0.06 independent of M0, ?? depends quite strongly on M0 for each set of induced earthquakes, with 0.06 serving, apparently, as an upper bound. It seems most likely that this observed scaling difference is due to variations in slip distribution over the fault plane. In the laboratory, a stick-slip event entails homogeneous slip over a fault of fixed area. For each set of induced earthquakes, the fault area appears to be approximately fixed but the slip is inhomogeneous due presumably to barriers (zones of no slip) distributed over the fault plane; at constant {Mathematical expression}, larger

  5. Geophysical Anomalies and Earthquake Prediction (United States)

    Jackson, D. D.


    some understanding of their sources and the physical properties of the crust, which also vary from place to place and time to time. Anomalies are not necessarily due to stress or earthquake preparation, and separating the extraneous ones is a problem as daunting as understanding earthquake behavior itself. Fourth, the associations presented between anomalies and earthquakes are generally based on selected data. Validating a proposed association requires complete data on the earthquake record and the geophysical measurements over a large area and time, followed by prospective testing which allows no adjustment of parameters, criteria, etc. The Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is dedicated to providing such prospective testing. Any serious proposal for prediction research should deal with the problems above, and anticipate the huge investment in time required to test hypotheses.

  6. Earthquake Forecasting System in Italy (United States)

    Falcone, G.; Marzocchi, W.; Murru, M.; Taroni, M.; Faenza, L.


    In Italy, after the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake, a procedure was developed for gathering and disseminating authoritative information about the time dependence of seismic hazard to help communities prepare for a potentially destructive earthquake. The most striking time dependency of the earthquake occurrence process is the time clustering, which is particularly pronounced in time windows of days and weeks. The Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) system that is developed at the Seismic Hazard Center (Centro di Pericolosità Sismica, CPS) of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) is the authoritative source of seismic hazard information for Italian Civil Protection. The philosophy of the system rests on a few basic concepts: transparency, reproducibility, and testability. In particular, the transparent, reproducible, and testable earthquake forecasting system developed at CPS is based on ensemble modeling and on a rigorous testing phase. Such phase is carried out according to the guidance proposed by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP, international infrastructure aimed at evaluating quantitatively earthquake prediction and forecast models through purely prospective and reproducible experiments). In the OEF system, the two most popular short-term models were used: the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) and the Short-Term Earthquake Probabilities (STEP). Here, we report the results from OEF's 24hour earthquake forecasting during the main phases of the 2016-2017 sequence occurred in Central Apennines (Italy).

  7. Source mechanisms of micro-earthquakes induced in a fluid injection experiment at the HDR site Soultz-sous-Forêts (Alsace) in 2003 and their temporal and spatial variations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Horálek, Josef; Jechumtálová, Zuzana; Dorbath, L.; Šílený, Jan


    Roč. 181, č. 3 (2010), s. 1547-1565 ISSN 0956-540X R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA300120911; GA ČR GA205/09/0724 Grant - others:EU(XE) MTKI-CT-2004-517242 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30120515 Keywords : downhole methods * hydrogeophysics * controlled source seismology * earthquake source observations * fracture and flow Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 2.411, year: 2010

  8. Fully probabilistic seismic source inversion – Part 1: Efficient parameterisation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. C. Stähler


    Full Text Available Seismic source inversion is a non-linear problem in seismology where not just the earthquake parameters themselves but also estimates of their uncertainties are of great practical importance. Probabilistic source inversion (Bayesian inference is very adapted to this challenge, provided that the parameter space can be chosen small enough to make Bayesian sampling computationally feasible. We propose a framework for PRobabilistic Inference of Seismic source Mechanisms (PRISM that parameterises and samples earthquake depth, moment tensor, and source time function efficiently by using information from previous non-Bayesian inversions. The source time function is expressed as a weighted sum of a small number of empirical orthogonal functions, which were derived from a catalogue of >1000 source time functions (STFs by a principal component analysis. We use a likelihood model based on the cross-correlation misfit between observed and predicted waveforms. The resulting ensemble of solutions provides full uncertainty and covariance information for the source parameters, and permits propagating these source uncertainties into travel time estimates used for seismic tomography. The computational effort is such that routine, global estimation of earthquake mechanisms and source time functions from teleseismic broadband waveforms is feasible.

  9. Depth-dependence of post-seismic velocity changes in and near source area of the 2013 M7.0 Lushan earthquake revealed by S coda of repeating events (United States)

    Li, Le


    I investigated postseismic velocity changes within focal area of the 2013 M7.0 Lushan earthquake using coda-wave data of repeating small earthquakes. I employed template matching and grid search methods to identify well-defined repeating earthquakes in order to minimize artifacts induced by variations in source location. I identified a total of 3 isolated patches in a two-month period after the M7.0 mainshock. I applied the coda wave interferometry technique to the waveform data of the identified repeating earthquakes to estimate velocity changes between the first and subsequent events in each cluster. Up to 0.1-0.2% velocity increase is observed from the S coda of repeating events occurred at regions surrounding the large coseismic slip area at seismogenic depths. My observations suggest that a large percent of velocity changes may occur at surface near the stations or shallow, however, healing along the propagation paths in the deep ( 5-20 km) is likely have contributed to the amount of velocity changes observed after the Lushan earthquake.

  10. Source Functions and Path Effects from Earthquakes in the Farallon Transform Fault Region, Gulf of California, Mexico that Occurred on October 2013 (United States)

    Castro, Raúl R.; Stock, Joann M.; Hauksson, Egill; Clayton, Robert W.


    We determined source spectral functions, Q and site effects using regional records of body waves from the October 19, 2013 ( M w = 6.6) earthquake and eight aftershocks located 90 km east of Loreto, Baja California Sur, Mexico. We also analyzed records from a foreshock with magnitude 3.3 that occurred 47 days before the mainshock. The epicenters of this sequence are located in the south-central region of the Gulf of California (GoC) near and on the Farallon transform fault. This is one of the most active regions of the GoC, where most of the large earthquakes have strike-slip mechanisms. Based on the distribution of the aftershocks, the rupture propagated northwest with a rupture length of approximately 27 km. We calculated 3-component P- and S-wave spectra from ten events recorded by eleven stations of the Broadband Seismological Network of the GoC (RESBAN). These stations are located around the GoC and provide good azimuthal coverage (the average station gap is 39°). The spectral records were corrected for site effects, which were estimated calculating average spectral ratios between horizontal and vertical components (HVSR method). The site-corrected spectra were then inverted to determine the source functions and to estimate the attenuation quality factor Q. The values of Q resulting from the spectral inversion can be approximated by the relations Q_{{P}} = 48.1 ± 1.1 f^{0.88 ± 0.04} and Q_{{S}} = 135.4 ± 1.1 f^{0.58 ± 0.03} and are consistent with previous estimates reported by Vidales-Basurto et al. (Bull Seism Soc Am 104:2027-2042, 2014) for the south-central GoC. The stress drop estimates, obtained using the ω2 model, are below 1.7 MPa, with the highest stress drops determined for the mainshock and the aftershocks located in the ridge zone. We used the values of Q obtained to recalculate source and site effects with a different spectral inversion scheme. We found that sites with low S-wave amplification also tend to have low P-wave amplification

  11. Rheological behavior of the crust and mantle in subduction zones in the time-scale range from earthquake (minute) to mln years inferred from thermomechanical model and geodetic observations (United States)

    Sobolev, Stephan; Muldashev, Iskander


    The key achievement of the geodynamic modelling community greatly contributed by the work of Evgenii Burov and his students is application of "realistic" mineral-physics based non-linear rheological models to simulate deformation processes in crust and mantle. Subduction being a type example of such process is an essentially multi-scale phenomenon with the time-scales spanning from geological to earthquake scale with the seismic cycle in-between. In this study we test the possibility to simulate the entire subduction process from rupture (1 min) to geological time (Mln yr) with the single cross-scale thermomechanical model that employs elasticity, mineral-physics constrained non-linear transient viscous rheology and rate-and-state friction plasticity. First we generate a thermo-mechanical model of subduction zone at geological time-scale including a narrow subduction channel with "wet-quartz" visco-elasto-plastic rheology and low static friction. We next introduce in the same model classic rate-and state friction law in subduction channel, leading to stick-slip instability. This model generates spontaneous earthquake sequence. In order to follow in details deformation process during the entire seismic cycle and multiple seismic cycles we use adaptive time-step algorithm changing step from 40 sec during the earthquake to minute-5 year during postseismic and interseismic processes. We observe many interesting deformation patterns and demonstrate that contrary to the conventional ideas, this model predicts that postseismic deformation is controlled by visco-elastic relaxation in the mantle wedge already since hour to day after the great (M>9) earthquakes. We demonstrate that our results are consistent with the postseismic surface displacement after the Great Tohoku Earthquake for the day-to-4year time range.

  12. Trade-off between seismic source detail and crustal heterogeneities in spherical 3D finite element modeling: a 2004 Sumatra earthquake case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Piersanti


    Full Text Available Finite-element methods are a powerful numerical simulation tool for modeling seismic events, as they allow three-dimensional complex models to be solved. We used a three-dimensional finite-element approach to evaluate the co-seismic displacement field produced by the devastating 2004 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake, which caused permanent deformations that were recorded by continuously operating GPS networks in a region of unprecedented area. Previous analysis of the static displacement fields have focused on the heterogeneous distribution of moment release on the fault plane; our intention here is to investigate how much the presence of crustal heterogeneities trades-off seismic source details. To achieve this aim, we adopted a quite simple source model in modeling the event. The key feature of our analysis is the generation of a complex three-dimensional spherical domain. Moreover, we also carried out an accurate analysis concerning the boundary conditions, which are crucial for finite-element simulations.

  13. Statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Rohatgi, Vijay K


    Unified treatment of probability and statistics examines and analyzes the relationship between the two fields, exploring inferential issues. Numerous problems, examples, and diagrams--some with solutions--plus clear-cut, highlighted summaries of results. Advanced undergraduate to graduate level. Contents: 1. Introduction. 2. Probability Model. 3. Probability Distributions. 4. Introduction to Statistical Inference. 5. More on Mathematical Expectation. 6. Some Discrete Models. 7. Some Continuous Models. 8. Functions of Random Variables and Random Vectors. 9. Large-Sample Theory. 10. General Meth

  14. Investigation of intraplate seismicity near the sites of the 2012 major strike-slip earthquakes in the eastern Indian Ocean through a passive-source OBS experiment (United States)

    Guo, L.; Lin, J.; Yang, H.


    The 11 April 2012 Mw8.6 earthquake off the coast of Sumatra in the eastern Indian Ocean was the largest strike-slip earthquake ever recorded. The 2012 mainshock and its aftershock sequences were associated with complex slip partitioning and earthquake interactions of an oblique convergent system, in a new plate boundary zone between the Indian and Australian plates. The detail processes of the earthquake interactions and correlation with seafloor geological structure, however, are still poorly known. During March-April 2017, an array of broadband OBS (ocean bottom seismometer) were deployed, for the first time, near the epicenter region of the 2012 earthquake sequence. During post-expedition data processing, we identified 70 global earthquakes from the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) catalog that occurred during our OBS deployment period. We then picked P and S waves in the seismic records and analyzed their arrival times. We further identified and analyzed multiple local earthquakes and examined their relationship to the observed seafloor structure (fracture zones, seafloor faults, etc.) and the state of stresses in this region of the eastern Indian Ocean. The ongoing analyses of the data obtained from this unique seismic experiment are expected to provide important constraints on the large-scale intraplate deformation in this part of the eastern Indian Ocean.

  15. The CATDAT damaging earthquakes database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. E. Daniell


    Full Text Available The global CATDAT damaging earthquakes and secondary effects (tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefaction and fault rupture database was developed to validate, remove discrepancies, and expand greatly upon existing global databases; and to better understand the trends in vulnerability, exposure, and possible future impacts of such historic earthquakes.

    Lack of consistency and errors in other earthquake loss databases frequently cited and used in analyses was a major shortcoming in the view of the authors which needed to be improved upon.

    Over 17 000 sources of information have been utilised, primarily in the last few years, to present data from over 12 200 damaging earthquakes historically, with over 7000 earthquakes since 1900 examined and validated before insertion into the database. Each validated earthquake includes seismological information, building damage, ranges of social losses to account for varying sources (deaths, injuries, homeless, and affected, and economic losses (direct, indirect, aid, and insured.

    Globally, a slightly increasing trend in economic damage due to earthquakes is not consistent with the greatly increasing exposure. The 1923 Great Kanto ($214 billion USD damage; 2011 HNDECI-adjusted dollars compared to the 2011 Tohoku (>$300 billion USD at time of writing, 2008 Sichuan and 1995 Kobe earthquakes show the increasing concern for economic loss in urban areas as the trend should be expected to increase. Many economic and social loss values not reported in existing databases have been collected. Historical GDP (Gross Domestic Product, exchange rate, wage information, population, HDI (Human Development Index, and insurance information have been collected globally to form comparisons.

    This catalogue is the largest known cross-checked global historic damaging earthquake database and should have far-reaching consequences for earthquake loss estimation, socio-economic analysis, and the global

  16. The CATDAT damaging earthquakes database (United States)

    Daniell, J. E.; Khazai, B.; Wenzel, F.; Vervaeck, A.


    The global CATDAT damaging earthquakes and secondary effects (tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefaction and fault rupture) database was developed to validate, remove discrepancies, and expand greatly upon existing global databases; and to better understand the trends in vulnerability, exposure, and possible future impacts of such historic earthquakes. Lack of consistency and errors in other earthquake loss databases frequently cited and used in analyses was a major shortcoming in the view of the authors which needed to be improved upon. Over 17 000 sources of information have been utilised, primarily in the last few years, to present data from over 12 200 damaging earthquakes historically, with over 7000 earthquakes since 1900 examined and validated before insertion into the database. Each validated earthquake includes seismological information, building damage, ranges of social losses to account for varying sources (deaths, injuries, homeless, and affected), and economic losses (direct, indirect, aid, and insured). Globally, a slightly increasing trend in economic damage due to earthquakes is not consistent with the greatly increasing exposure. The 1923 Great Kanto (214 billion USD damage; 2011 HNDECI-adjusted dollars) compared to the 2011 Tohoku (>300 billion USD at time of writing), 2008 Sichuan and 1995 Kobe earthquakes show the increasing concern for economic loss in urban areas as the trend should be expected to increase. Many economic and social loss values not reported in existing databases have been collected. Historical GDP (Gross Domestic Product), exchange rate, wage information, population, HDI (Human Development Index), and insurance information have been collected globally to form comparisons. This catalogue is the largest known cross-checked global historic damaging earthquake database and should have far-reaching consequences for earthquake loss estimation, socio-economic analysis, and the global reinsurance field.

  17. Retrieval of source parameters of an event of the 2000 West Bohemia earthquake swarm assuming an anisotropic crust

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Rössler, D.; Krüger, F.; Pšenčík, Ivan; Rümpker, G.


    Roč. 51, č. 2 (2007), s. 231-254 ISSN 0039-3169 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA300120502 Grant - others:DFG(DE) KR1935/1-1; DFG(DE) KR1935/1-3 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30120515 Keywords : seismic source * tensile faulting * seismic anisotropy * West Bohemia Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 0.733, year: 2007

  18. Source mechanisms of persistent shallow earthquakes during eruptive and non-eruptive periods between 1981 and 2011 at Mount St. Helens, Washington (United States)

    Lehto, Heather L.; Roman, Diana C.; Moran, Seth C.


    Shallow seismicity between 0 and 3-km depth has persisted at Mount St. Helens, Washington (MSH) during both eruptive and non-eruptive periods for at least the past thirty years. In this study we investigate the source mechanisms of shallow volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes at MSH by calculating high-quality hypocenter locations and fault plane solutions (FPS) for all VT events recorded during two eruptive periods (1981–1986 and 2004–2008) and two non-eruptive periods (1987–2004 and 2008–2011). FPS show a mixture of normal, reverse, and strike-slip faulting during all periods, with a sharp increase in strike-slip faulting observed in 1987–1997 and an increase in normal faulting in 1998–2004. FPS P-axis orientations show a ~ 90° rotation with respect to regional σ1 (N23°E) during 1981–1986 and 2004–2008, bimodal orientations (~ N-S and ~ E-W) during 1987–2004, and bimodal orientations at ~ N-E and ~ S-W from 2008–2011. We interpret these orientations to likely be due to pressurization accompanying the shallow intrusion and subsequent eruption of magma as domes during 1981–1986 and 2004–2008 and the buildup of pore pressure beneath a seismogenic volume (located at 0–1 km) with a smaller component due to the buildup of tectonic forces during 1987–2004 and 2008–2011.

  19. Statistical tests of simple earthquake cycle models (United States)

    Devries, Phoebe M. R.; Evans, Eileen


    A central goal of observing and modeling the earthquake cycle is to forecast when a particular fault may generate an earthquake: a fault late in its earthquake cycle may be more likely to generate an earthquake than a fault early in its earthquake cycle. Models that can explain geodetic observations throughout the entire earthquake cycle may be required to gain a more complete understanding of relevant physics and phenomenology. Previous efforts to develop unified earthquake models for strike-slip faults have largely focused on explaining both preseismic and postseismic geodetic observations available across a few faults in California, Turkey, and Tibet. An alternative approach leverages the global distribution of geodetic and geologic slip rate estimates on strike-slip faults worldwide. Here we use the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for similarity of distributions to infer, in a statistically rigorous manner, viscoelastic earthquake cycle models that are inconsistent with 15 sets of observations across major strike-slip faults. We reject a large subset of two-layer models incorporating Burgers rheologies at a significance level of α = 0.05 (those with long-term Maxwell viscosities ηM ~ 4.6 × 1020 Pa s) but cannot reject models on the basis of transient Kelvin viscosity ηK. Finally, we examine the implications of these results for the predicted earthquake cycle timing of the 15 faults considered and compare these predictions to the geologic and historical record.

  20. Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes


    Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro


    Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of th...

  1. Source fault model of the 2011 off the pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake, estimated from the detailed distribution of tsunami run-up heights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuta, Nobuhisa; Suzuki, Yasuhiro; Sugito, Nobuhiko; Nakata, Takashi; Watanabe, Mitsuhisa


    The distribution of tsunami run-up heights generally has spatial variations, because run-up heights are controlled by coastal topography including local-scale landforms such as natural levees, in addition to land use. Focusing on relationships among coastal topography, land conditions, and tsunami run-up heights of historical tsunamis—Meiji Sanriku (1896 A.D.), Syowa Sanriku (1933 A.D.), and Chilean Sanriku (1960 A.D.) tsunamis—along the Sanriku coast, it is found that the wavelength of a tsunami determines inundation areas as well as run-up heights. Small bays facing the Pacific Ocean are sensitive to short wavelength tsunamis, and large bays are sensitive to long wavelength tsunamis. The tsunami observed off Kamaishi during the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake was composed of both short and long wavelength components. We examined run-up heights of the Tohoku tsunami, and found that: (1) coastal areas north of Kamaishi and south of Yamamoto were mainly attacked by short wavelength tsunamis; and (2) no evidence of short wavelength tsunamis was observed from Ofunato to the Oshika Peninsula. This observation coincides with the geomorphologically proposed source fault model, and indicates that the extraordinary large slip along the shallow part of the plate boundary off Sendai, proposed by seismological and geodesic analyses, is not needed to explain the run-up heights of the Tohoku tsunami. To better understand spatial variations of tsunami run-up heights, submarine crustal movements, and source faults, a detailed analysis is required of coastal topography, land conditions, and submarine tectonic landforms from the perspective of geomorphology. (author)

  2. A Statistical Framework for Microbial Source Attribution: Measuring Uncertainty in Host Transmission Events Inferred from Genetic Data (Part 2 of a 2 Part Report)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allen, J; Velsko, S


    This report explores the question of whether meaningful conclusions can be drawn regarding the transmission relationship between two microbial samples on the basis of differences observed between the two sample's respective genomes. Unlike similar forensic applications using human DNA, the rapid rate of microbial genome evolution combined with the dynamics of infectious disease require a shift in thinking on what it means for two samples to 'match' in support of a forensic hypothesis. Previous outbreaks for SARS-CoV, FMDV and HIV were examined to investigate the question of how microbial sequence data can be used to draw inferences that link two infected individuals by direct transmission. The results are counter intuitive with respect to human DNA forensic applications in that some genetic change rather than exact matching improve confidence in inferring direct transmission links, however, too much genetic change poses challenges, which can weaken confidence in inferred links. High rates of infection coupled with relatively weak selective pressure observed in the SARS-CoV and FMDV data lead to fairly low confidence for direct transmission links. Confidence values for forensic hypotheses increased when testing for the possibility that samples are separated by at most a few intermediate hosts. Moreover, the observed outbreak conditions support the potential to provide high confidence values for hypothesis that exclude direct transmission links. Transmission inferences are based on the total number of observed or inferred genetic changes separating two sequences rather than uniquely weighing the importance of any one genetic mismatch. Thus, inferences are surprisingly robust in the presence of sequencing errors provided the error rates are randomly distributed across all samples in the reference outbreak database and the novel sequence samples in question. When the number of observed nucleotide mutations are limited due to characteristics of the

  3. Joint inversion of GNSS and teleseismic data for the rupture process of the 2017 M w6.5 Jiuzhaigou, China, earthquake (United States)

    Li, Qi; Tan, Kai; Wang, Dong Zhen; Zhao, Bin; Zhang, Rui; Li, Yu; Qi, Yu Jie


    The spatio-temporal slip distribution of the earthquake that occurred on 8 August 2017 in Jiuzhaigou, China, was estimated from the teleseismic body wave and near-field Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data (coseismic displacements and high-rate GPS data) based on a finite fault model. Compared with the inversion results from the teleseismic body waves, the near-field GNSS data can better restrain the rupture area, the maximum slip, the source time function, and the surface rupture. The results show that the maximum slip of the earthquake approaches 1.4 m, the scalar seismic moment is 8.0 × 1018 N·m (M w ≈ 6.5), and the centroid depth is 15 km. The slip is mainly driven by the left-lateral strike-slip and it is initially inferred that the seismogenic fault occurs in the south branch of the Tazang fault or an undetectable fault, a NW-trending left-lateral strike-slip fault, and belongs to one of the tail structures at the easternmost end of the eastern Kunlun fault zone. The earthquake rupture is mainly concentrated at depths of 5-15 km, which results in the complete rupture of the seismic gap left by the previous four earthquakes with magnitudes > 6.0 in 1973 and 1976. Therefore, the possibility of a strong aftershock on the Huya fault is low. The source duration is 30 s and there are two major ruptures. The main rupture occurs in the first 10 s, 4 s after the earthquake; the second rupture peak arrives in 17 s. In addition, the Coulomb stress study shows that the epicenter of the earthquake is located in the area where the static Coulomb stress change increased because of the 12 May 2017 M w7.9 Wenchuan, China, earthquake. Therefore, the Wenchuan earthquake promoted the occurrence of the 8 August 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquake.

  4. Understanding Earthquakes (United States)

    Davis, Amanda; Gray, Ron


    December 26, 2004 was one of the deadliest days in modern history, when a 9.3 magnitude earthquake--the third largest ever recorded--struck off the coast of Sumatra in Indonesia (National Centers for Environmental Information 2014). The massive quake lasted at least 10 minutes and devastated the Indian Ocean. The quake displaced an estimated…

  5. Generic patch inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper; Lawall, Julia


    A key issue in maintaining Linux device drivers is the need to keep them up to date with respect to evolutions in Linux internal libraries. Currently, there is little tool support for performing and documenting such changes. In this paper we present a tool, spdiff, that identifies common changes...... developers can use it to extract an abstract representation of the set of changes that others have made. Our experiments on recent changes in Linux show that the inferred generic patches are more concise than the corresponding patches found in commits to the Linux source tree while being safe with respect...

  6. A study of Guptkashi, Uttarakhand earthquake of 6 February 2017 (M w 5.3) in the Himalayan arc and implications for ground motion estimation (United States)

    Srinagesh, Davuluri; Singh, Shri Krishna; Suresh, Gaddale; Srinivas, Dakuri; Pérez-Campos, Xyoli; Suresh, Gudapati


    The 2017 Guptkashi earthquake occurred in a segment of the Himalayan arc with high potential for a strong earthquake in the near future. In this context, a careful analysis of the earthquake is important as it may shed light on source and ground motion characteristics during future earthquakes. Using the earthquake recording on a single broadband strong-motion seismograph installed at the epicenter, we estimate the earthquake's location (30.546° N, 79.063° E), depth (H = 19 km), the seismic moment (M 0 = 1.12×1017 Nm, M w 5.3), the focal mechanism (φ = 280°, δ = 14°, λ = 84°), the source radius (a = 1.3 km), and the static stress drop (Δσ s 22 MPa). The event occurred just above the Main Himalayan Thrust. S-wave spectra of the earthquake at hard sites in the arc are well approximated (assuming ω -2 source model) by attenuation parameters Q(f) = 500f 0.9, κ = 0.04 s, and f max = infinite, and a stress drop of Δσ = 70 MPa. Observed and computed peak ground motions, using stochastic method along with parameters inferred from spectral analysis, agree well with each other. These attenuation parameters are also reasonable for the observed spectra and/or peak ground motion parameters in the arc at distances ≤ 200 km during five other earthquakes in the region (4.6 ≤ M w ≤ 6.9). The estimated stress drop of the six events ranges from 20 to 120 MPa. Our analysis suggests that attenuation parameters given above may be used for ground motion estimation at hard sites in the Himalayan arc via the stochastic method.

  7. Fracking, wastewater disposal, and earthquakes (United States)

    McGarr, Arthur


    In the modern oil and gas industry, fracking of low-permeability reservoirs has resulted in a considerable increase in the production of oil and natural gas, but these fluid-injection activities also can induce earthquakes. Earthquakes induced by fracking are an inevitable consequence of the injection of fluid at high pressure, where the intent is to enhance permeability by creating a system of cracks and fissures that allow hydrocarbons to flow to the borehole. The micro-earthquakes induced during these highly-controlled procedures are generally much too small to be felt at the surface; indeed, the creation or reactivation of a large fault would be contrary to the goal of enhancing permeability evenly throughout the formation. Accordingly, the few case histories for which fracking has resulted in felt earthquakes have been due to unintended fault reactivation. Of greater consequence for inducing earthquakes, modern techniques for producing hydrocarbons, including fracking, have resulted in considerable quantities of coproduced wastewater, primarily formation brines. This wastewater is commonly disposed by injection into deep aquifers having high permeability and porosity. As reported in many case histories, pore pressure increases due to wastewater injection were channeled from the target aquifers into fault zones that were, in effect, lubricated, resulting in earthquake slip. These fault zones are often located in the brittle crystalline rocks in the basement. Magnitudes of earthquakes induced by wastewater disposal often exceed 4, the threshold for structural damage. Even though only a small fraction of disposal wells induce earthquakes large enough to be of concern to the public, there are so many of these wells that this source of seismicity contributes significantly to the seismic hazard in the United States, especially east of the Rocky Mountains where standards of building construction are generally not designed to resist shaking from large earthquakes.

  8. Coastal evidence for Holocene subduction-zone earthquakes and tsunamis in central Chile (United States)

    Dure, Tina; Cisternas, Marco; Horton, Benjamin; Ely, Lisa; Nelson, Alan R.; Wesson, Robert L.; Pilarczyk, Jessica


    The ∼500-year historical record of seismicity along the central Chile coast (30–34°S) is characterized by a series of ∼M 8.0–8.5 earthquakes followed by low tsunamis (tsunami (>10 m), but the frequency of such large events is unknown. We extend the seismic history of central Chile through a study of a lowland stratigraphic sequence along the metropolitan coast north of Valparaíso (33°S). At this site, higher relative sea level during the mid Holocene created a tidal marsh and the accommodation space necessary for sediment that preserves earthquake and tsunami evidence. Within this 2600-yr-long sequence, we traced six laterally continuous sand beds probably deposited by high tsunamis. Plant remains that underlie the sand beds were radiocarbon dated to 6200, 5600, 5000, 4400, 3800, and 3700 cal yr BP. Sediment properties and diatom assemblages of the sand beds—for example, anomalous marine planktonic diatoms and upward fining of silt-sized diatom valves—point to a marine sediment source and high-energy deposition. Grain-size analysis shows a strong similarity between inferred tsunami deposits and modern coastal sediment. Upward fining sequences characteristic of suspension deposition are present in five of the six sand beds. Despite the lack of significant lithologic changes between the sedimentary units under- and overlying tsunami deposits, we infer that the increase in freshwater siliceous microfossils in overlying units records coseismic uplift concurrent with the deposition of five of the sand beds. During our mid-Holocene window of evidence preservation, the mean recurrence interval of earthquakes and tsunamis is ∼500 years. Our findings imply that the frequency of historical earthquakes in central Chile is not representative of the greatest earthquakes and tsunamis that the central Chilean subduction zone has produced.

  9. Refresher Course on Physics of Earthquakes -98 ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The objective of this course is to help teachers gain an understanding of the earhquake phenomenon and the physical processes involved in its genesis as well as offhe earthquake waves which propagate the energy released by the earthquake rupture outward from the source. The Course will begin with mathematical ...

  10. Darwin's earthquake. (United States)

    Lee, Richard V


    Charles Darwin experienced a major earthquake in the Concepción-Valdivia region of Chile 175 years ago, in February 1835. His observations dramatically illustrated the geologic principles of James Hutton and Charles Lyell which maintained that the surface of the earth was subject to alterations by natural events, such as earthquakes, volcanoes, and the erosive action of wind and water, operating over very long periods of time. Changes in the land created new environments and fostered adaptations in life forms that could lead to the formation of new species. Without the demonstration of the accumulation of multiple crustal events over time in Chile, the biologic implications of the specific species of birds and tortoises found in the Galapagos Islands and the formulation of the concept of natural selection might have remained dormant.

  11. Stochastic finite-fault modelling of strong earthquakes in Narmada ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Stochastic finite fault modelling of strong earthquakes. 839. 1983). It has been widely used to predict the ground motion around the globe where earthquake recordings are scanty. The conventional point source approximation is unable to characterize key features of ground motions from large earthquakes, such as their ...

  12. The Nankai Trough earthquake tsunamis in Korea: Numerical studies of the 1707 Hoei earthquake and physics-based scenarios (United States)

    Kim, S.; Saito, T.; Fukuyama, E.; Kang, T. S.


    Historical documents in Korea and China report abnormal waves in the sea and rivers close to the date of the 1707 Hoei earthquake, which occurred in the Nankai Trough, off southwestern Japan. This indicates that the tsunami caused by the Hoei earthquake might have reached Korea and China, which suggests a potential hazard in Korea from large earthquakes in the Nankai Trough. We conducted tsunami simulations to study the details of tsunamis in Korea caused by large earthquakes. We employed the 1707 Hoei earthquake source model and physics-based scenarios of anticipated earthquake in the Nankai subduction zone. We also considered the effect of horizontal displacement on tsunami generation. Our simulation results from the Hoei earthquake model and the anticipated earthquake models showed that the maximum tsunami height along the Korean coast was less than 0.5 m. Even though the tsunami is not life-threatening, the effect of larger earthquakes should be still considered.

  13. Tilt Precursors before Earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault, California. (United States)

    Johnston, M J; Mortensen, C E


    An array of 14 biaxial shallow-borehole tiltmeters (at 1O(-7) radian sensitivity) has been installed along 85 kilometers of the San Andreas fault during the past year. Earthquake-related changes in tilt have been simultaneously observed on up to four independent instruments. At earthquake distances greater than 10 earthquake source dimensions, there are few clear indications of tilt change. For the four instruments with the longest records (> 10 months), 26 earthquakes have occurred since July 1973 with at least one instrument closer than 10 source dimensions and 8 earthquakes with more than one instrument within that distance. Precursors in tilt direction have been observed before more than 10 earthquakes or groups of earthquakes, and no similar effect has yet been seen without the occurrence of an earthquake.

  14. The music of earthquakes and Earthquake Quartet #1 (United States)

    Michael, Andrew J.


    Earthquake Quartet #1, my composition for voice, trombone, cello, and seismograms, is the intersection of listening to earthquakes as a seismologist and performing music as a trombonist. Along the way, I realized there is a close relationship between what I do as a scientist and what I do as a musician. A musician controls the source of the sound and the path it travels through their instrument in order to make sound waves that we hear as music. An earthquake is the source of waves that travel along a path through the earth until reaching us as shaking. It is almost as if the earth is a musician and people, including seismologists, are metaphorically listening and trying to understand what the music means.

  15. Accounting for Non-Gaussian Sources of Spatial Correlation in Parametric Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging Paradigms I: Revisiting Cluster-Based Inferences. (United States)

    Gopinath, Kaundinya; Krishnamurthy, Venkatagiri; Sathian, K


    In a recent study, Eklund et al. employed resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging data as a surrogate for null functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) datasets and posited that cluster-wise family-wise error (FWE) rate-corrected inferences made by using parametric statistical methods in fMRI studies over the past two decades may have been invalid, particularly for cluster defining thresholds less stringent than p < 0.001; this was principally because the spatial autocorrelation functions (sACF) of fMRI data had been modeled incorrectly to follow a Gaussian form, whereas empirical data suggested otherwise. Here, we show that accounting for non-Gaussian signal components such as those arising from resting-state neural activity as well as physiological responses and motion artifacts in the null fMRI datasets yields first- and second-level general linear model analysis residuals with nearly uniform and Gaussian sACF. Further comparison with nonparametric permutation tests indicates that cluster-based FWE corrected inferences made with Gaussian spatial noise approximations are valid.

  16. Earthquake Early Warning Systems


    Pei-Yang Lin


    Because of Taiwan’s unique geographical environment, earthquake disasters occur frequently in Taiwan. The Central Weather Bureau collated earthquake data from between 1901 and 2006 (Central Weather Bureau, 2007) and found that 97 earthquakes had occurred, of which, 52 resulted in casualties. The 921 Chichi Earthquake had the most profound impact. Because earthquakes have instant destructive power and current scientific technologies cannot provide precise early warnings in advance, earthquake ...

  17. Predictable earthquakes? (United States)

    Martini, D.


    acceleration) and global number of earthquake for this period from published literature which give us a great picture about the dynamical geophysical phenomena. Methodology: The computing of linear correlation coefficients gives us a chance to quantitatively characterise the relation among the data series, if we suppose a linear dependence in the first step. The correlation coefficients among the Earth's rotational acceleration and Z-orbit acceleration (perpendicular to the ecliptic plane) and the global number of the earthquakes were compared. The results clearly demonstrate the common feature of both the Earth's rotation and Earth's Z-acceleration around the Sun and also between the Earth's rotational acceleration and the earthquake number. This fact might means a strong relation among these phenomena. The mentioned rather strong correlation (r = 0.75) and the 29 year period (Saturn's synodic period) was clearly shown in the counted cross correlation function, which gives the dynamical characteristic of correlation, of Earth's orbital- (Z-direction) and rotational acceleration. This basic period (29 year) was also obvious in the earthquake number data sets with clear common features in time. Conclusion: The Core, which involves the secular variation of the Earth's magnetic field, is the only sufficiently mobile part of the Earth with a sufficient mass to modify the rotation which probably effects on the global time distribution of the earthquakes. Therefore it might means that the secular variation of the earthquakes is inseparable from the changes in Earth's magnetic field, i.e. the interior process of the Earth's core belongs to the dynamical state of the solar system. Therefore if the described idea is real the global distribution of the earthquakes in time is predictable.

  18. Refine fault geometry with broadband waveform modeling for earthquake source parameters: seismological evidence for the ramp-flat-ramp geometry of the Main Himalayan Thrust (United States)

    WANG, X.; Wei, S.


    The April 25th 2015 Mw7.8 Gorkha Nepal earthquake is the largest earthquake occurred on the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) in modern instrumental period. According to the USGS catalog, there are 31 aftershocks with mb > 5, however, only 8 of them have Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) solutions. This is mainly because the long-period signals of the aftershocks are buried in the surface wave or the coda of the previous large event. The limited number of focal mechanism and poor horizontal location and depth in the global catalog obstruct us to unambiguously image the ruptured MHT which was known mainly from geological studies. In this study, we proposed a novel method that allows us to model the teleseismic P-waves up to 1.5Hz. This method uses well-constrained medium size earthquakes to establish amplitude amplification corrections for teleseismic stations that were later used to invert the high frequency waveform of other nearby events. The new approach enables us to invert the focal mechanism of some early aftershocks, which is not possible in current global catalogs. We also conduct high frequency waveform modeling of the teleseismic depth phases that provide strong constraints on earthquake depths (uncertainty within 1-2 km). For the earthquakes with good signal to noise ratio waveform records, we performed long period waveform inversion along with bootstrapping method to estimate the uncertainty of strike, dip and rake. The horizontal locations of all these earthquakes are re-determined by teleseismic relative relocation. For the Gorhka sequence, we obtained about a dozen events more than the GCMT catalog. The refined earthquake locations delineate a ramp-flat-ramp MHT geometry that is in agreement with the structure geology, receiver functions and gravity analysis. The flat (dip 7 degree) portion of the MHT is very consistent with coseismic rupture of the mainshock which has well-constrained slip distribution. We suggest that the ramps, both along the up

  19. Paleoseismograms: Can Turbidite Deposits Record Flow Unsteadiness Imparted by Earthquakes? (United States)

    Goldfinger, C.; Garrett, A.; Patton, J. R.; Morey, A. E.


    between the input perturbations and the recovered grain size profiles of the deposits, reflecting considerable detail of the input source. We successfully simulated input perturbations and corresponding recovery in the deposits of single and multiple input energy peaks of varying lengths and flow hydrographs, as well as simulated hyperpycnal flows, with consistent results across a wide range of timing and and parameter scaling. Field evidence from historic earthquakes in Cascadia, Chile, the NSAF and Sumatra suggest that long earthquake shaking variability may in some cases, similarly act on unstable slopes in major fault systems, imparting a longitudinal structure to turbidity currents that can be observed in the deposit. We suspect that the shaking threshold required to overcome other influences is likely quite high, and the duration of the earthquake quite long to successfully influence the turbidity current. We also infer that if this hypothesis is correct, that ground accelerations, as opposed to liquefaction, may dominate near term co-seismic slope failures.

  20. Slow slip events, the earthquake cycle, and rheological effects in Nicoya, Costa Rica (United States)

    Voss, Nicholas; Malservisi, Rocco; Dixon, Timothy; Protti, Marino


    In February of 2014 a Mw=7.0 slow slip event (SSE) took place beneath the Nicoya Peninsula, Costa Rica. This event occurred 17 months after the 5 September 2012, Mw=7.6, earthquake and along the same subduction zone segment, during a period when significant postseismic deformation was ongoing. A second SSE occurred in the middle of 2015, 21 months after the 2014 SSE. SSEs prior to the earthquake were also well-recorded, allowing analysis of SSE behavior during both the late and early stages of the earthquake cycle. The recurrence interval for Nicoya SSEs was unchanged by the earthquake. However, the spatial distribution of slip for the 2014 event differed significantly from previous events, only having deep ( 40 km) slip. Previous events showed both deep and shallow slip. The 2015 SSE marked a return to earlier pattern. However, slip magnitude in 2015 was nearly twice as large (Mw=7.2) as pre-earthquake SSEs. The large amount of shallow slip in the 2015 SSE maybe a result of slip missed during the 2014 SSE. These observations highlight the variability of aseismic strain release throughout the earthquake cycle generating considerable uncertainty when considering long term strain accumulation rates. The deep slip patch in Nicoya is located near the mantle wedge. Serpentinization of the wedge is thought to be one source of fluids, commonly thought to promote SSEs and and seismic tremor. However, the presence of fluids provokes drastic changes in rheology, usually ignored when calculating simple elastic dislocation models of SSEs. Here we explore how simple models using viscoelastic rheology may change the inferred deformation field, leading to mis-estimation of the magnitude of slip, and mis-estimation of long term strain accumulation rates.

  1. Laboratory generated M -6 earthquakes (United States)

    McLaskey, Gregory C.; Kilgore, Brian D.; Lockner, David A.; Beeler, Nicholas M.


    We consider whether mm-scale earthquake-like seismic events generated in laboratory experiments are consistent with our understanding of the physics of larger earthquakes. This work focuses on a population of 48 very small shocks that are foreshocks and aftershocks of stick–slip events occurring on a 2.0 m by 0.4 m simulated strike-slip fault cut through a large granite sample. Unlike the larger stick–slip events that rupture the entirety of the simulated fault, the small foreshocks and aftershocks are contained events whose properties are controlled by the rigidity of the surrounding granite blocks rather than characteristics of the experimental apparatus. The large size of the experimental apparatus, high fidelity sensors, rigorous treatment of wave propagation effects, and in situ system calibration separates this study from traditional acoustic emission analyses and allows these sources to be studied with as much rigor as larger natural earthquakes. The tiny events have short (3–6 μs) rise times and are well modeled by simple double couple focal mechanisms that are consistent with left-lateral slip occurring on a mm-scale patch of the precut fault surface. The repeatability of the experiments indicates that they are the result of frictional processes on the simulated fault surface rather than grain crushing or fracture of fresh rock. Our waveform analysis shows no significant differences (other than size) between the M -7 to M -5.5 earthquakes reported here and larger natural earthquakes. Their source characteristics such as stress drop (1–10 MPa) appear to be entirely consistent with earthquake scaling laws derived for larger earthquakes.

  2. Inferring horizontal gene transfer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matt Ravenhall


    Full Text Available Horizontal or Lateral Gene Transfer (HGT or LGT is the transmission of portions of genomic DNA between organisms through a process decoupled from vertical inheritance. In the presence of HGT events, different fragments of the genome are the result of different evolutionary histories. This can therefore complicate the investigations of evolutionary relatedness of lineages and species. Also, as HGT can bring into genomes radically different genotypes from distant lineages, or even new genes bearing new functions, it is a major source of phenotypic innovation and a mechanism of niche adaptation. For example, of particular relevance to human health is the lateral transfer of antibiotic resistance and pathogenicity determinants, leading to the emergence of pathogenic lineages. Computational identification of HGT events relies upon the investigation of sequence composition or evolutionary history of genes. Sequence composition-based ("parametric" methods search for deviations from the genomic average, whereas evolutionary history-based ("phylogenetic" approaches identify genes whose evolutionary history significantly differs from that of the host species. The evaluation and benchmarking of HGT inference methods typically rely upon simulated genomes, for which the true history is known. On real data, different methods tend to infer different HGT events, and as a result it can be difficult to ascertain all but simple and clear-cut HGT events.

  3. Coulomb stress change sensitivity due to variability in mainshock source models and receiving fault parameters: A case study of the 2010-2011 Christchurch, New Zealand, earthquakes (United States)

    Zhan, Zhongwen; Jin, Bikai; Wei, Shengji; Graves, Robert W.


    Strong aftershocks following major earthquakes present significant challenges for infrastructure recovery as well as for emergency rescue efforts. A tragic instance of this is the 22 February 2011 Mw 6.3 Christchurch aftershock in New Zealand, which caused more than 100 deaths while the 2010 Mw 7.1 Canterbury mainshock did not cause a single fatality (Figure 1). Therefore, substantial efforts have been directed toward understanding the generation mechanisms of aftershocks as well as mitigating hazards due to aftershocks. Among these efforts are the prediction of strong aftershocks, earthquake early warning, and aftershock probability assessment. Zhang et al. (1999) reported a successful case of strong aftershock prediction with precursory data such as changes in seismicity pattern, variation of b-value, and geomagnetic anomalies. However, official reports of such successful predictions in geophysical journals are extremely rare, implying that deterministic prediction of potentially damaging aftershocks is not necessarily more scientifically feasible than prediction of mainshocks.

  4. Spectral Studies of the Elastic Wave Radiation from Appalachian Earthquakes and Explosions-Explosion Source Spectra Modeling Using Blaster’s Logs (United States)


    ratios for Pg compared to Lg. Also, the Pg spectra appear to have more energy at high frequency (relative to low frequency energy ) than do the Lg spectra...Dept of Energy /DP 5 Forrestal Building 1000 Independence Avenue Washington, DC 20585 Dr. W.H.K. Lee Office of Earthquakes, Volcanoes, & Engineering...David-Jepsen Acting-Head, Nulear Monitoring Section -Bureau-Qf Mineral Resources Geology-and Geophysics GPO Box 378, Canberra, AUSTRALIA Prof. Brian L.N

  5. Non-double-couple earthquake mechanism as an artifact of the point-source approach applied to a finite-extent focus

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Adamová, Petra; Šílený, Jan


    Roč. 100, č. 2 (2010), s. 447-457 ISSN 0037-1106 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/09/0724 Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) specifický-výzkum Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30120515 Keywords : non-double-couple earthquake mechanism * moment tensor * finite-extent focus Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 2.027, year: 2010

  6. Wave-equation Based Earthquake Location (United States)

    Tong, P.; Yang, D.; Yang, X.; Chen, J.; Harris, J.


    Precisely locating earthquakes is fundamentally important for studying earthquake physics, fault orientations and Earth's deformation. In industry, accurately determining hypocenters of microseismic events triggered in the course of a hydraulic fracturing treatment can help improve the production of oil and gas from unconventional reservoirs. We develop a novel earthquake location method based on solving full wave equations to accurately locate earthquakes (including microseismic earthquakes) in complex and heterogeneous structures. Traveltime residuals or differential traveltime measurements with the waveform cross-correlation technique are iteratively inverted to obtain the locations of earthquakes. The inversion process involves the computation of the Fréchet derivative with respect to the source (earthquake) location via the interaction between a forward wavefield emitting from the source to the receiver and an adjoint wavefield reversely propagating from the receiver to the source. When there is a source perturbation, the Fréchet derivative not only measures the influence of source location but also the effects of heterogeneity, anisotropy and attenuation of the subsurface structure on the arrival of seismic wave at the receiver. This is essential for the accuracy of earthquake location in complex media. In addition, to reduce the computational cost, we can first assume that seismic wave only propagates in a vertical plane passing through the source and the receiver. The forward wavefield, adjoint wavefield and Fréchet derivative with respect to the source location are all computed in a 2D vertical plane. By transferring the Fréchet derivative along the horizontal direction of the 2D plane into the ones along Latitude and Longitude coordinates or local 3D Cartesian coordinates, the source location can be updated in a 3D geometry. The earthquake location obtained with this combined 2D-3D approach can then be used as the initial location for a true 3D wave

  7. Stress Drops for Potentially Induced Earthquake Sequences (United States)

    Huang, Y.; Beroza, G. C.; Ellsworth, W. L.


    Stress drop, the difference between shear stress acting across a fault before and after an earthquake, is a fundamental parameter of the earthquake source process and the generation of strong ground motions. Higher stress drops usually lead to more high-frequency ground motions. Hough [2014 and 2015] observed low intensities in "Did You Feel It?" data for injection-induced earthquakes, and interpreted them to be a result of low stress drops. It is also possible that the low recorded intensities could be a result of propagation effects. Atkinson et al. [2015] show that the shallow depth of injection-induced earthquakes can lead to a lack of high-frequency ground motion as well. We apply the spectral ratio method of Imanishi and Ellsworth [2006] to analyze stress drops of injection-induced earthquakes, using smaller earthquakes with similar waveforms as empirical Green's functions (eGfs). Both the effects of path and linear site response should be cancelled out through the spectral ratio analysis. We apply this technique to the Guy-Greenbrier earthquake sequence in central Arkansas. The earthquakes migrated along the Guy-Greenbrier Fault while nearby injection wells were operating in 2010-2011. Huang and Beroza [GRL, 2015] improved the magnitude of completeness to about -1 using template matching and found that the earthquakes deviated from Gutenberg-Richter statistics during the operation of nearby injection wells. We identify 49 clusters of highly similar events in the Huang and Beroza [2015] catalog and calculate stress drops using the source model described in Imanishi and Ellsworth [2006]. Our results suggest that stress drops of the Guy-Greenbrier sequence are similar to tectonic earthquakes at Parkfield, California (the attached figure). We will also present stress drop analysis of other suspected induced earthquake sequences using the same method.

  8. Preliminary analysis of strong-motion recordings from the 28 September 2004 Parkfield, California earthquake (United States)

    Shakal, A.; Graizer, V.; Huang, M.; Borcherdt, R.; Haddadi, H.; Lin, K.-W.; Stephens, C.; Roffers, P.


    The Parkfield 2004 earthquake yielded the most extensive set of strong-motion data in the near-source region of a magnitude 6 earthquake yet obtained. The recordings of acceleration and volumetric strain provide an unprecedented document of the near-source seismic radiation for a moderate earthquake. The spatial density of the measurements alon g the fault zone and in the linear arrays perpendicular to the fault is expected to provide an exceptional opportunity to develop improved models of the rupture process. The closely spaced measurements should help infer the temporal and spatial distribution of the rupture process at much higher resolution than previously possible. Preliminary analyses of the peak a cceleration data presented herein shows that the motions vary significantly along the rupture zone, from 0.13 g to more than 2.5 g, with a map of the values showing that the larger values are concentrated in three areas. Particle motions at the near-fault stations are consistent with bilateral rupture. Fault-normal pulses similar to those observed in recent strike-slip earthquakes are apparent at several of the stations. The attenuation of peak ground acceleration with distance is more rapid than that indicated by some standard relationships but adequately fits others. Evidence for directivity in the peak acceleration data is not strong. Several stations very near, or over, the rupturing fault recorded relatively low accelerations. These recordings may provide a quantitative basis to understand observations of low near-fault shaking damage that has been reported in other large strike-slip earthquak.

  9. Sources of seasonal variability in tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere water vapor and ozone: Inferences from the Ticosonde data set at Costa Rica (United States)

    Schoeberl, Mark R.; Selkirk, Henry B.; Vömel, Holger; Douglass, Anne R.


    We present an analysis of joint balloonsonde profiles of water vapor and ozone made at Costa Rica from 2005 to 2011 using compositing techniques, tracer-tracer diagrams, and back trajectory methods. Our analysis reveals important seasonal differences in structure in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Water vapor amounts in boreal winter at Costa Rica are much lower than expected from local ice saturation temperatures. The boreal summer data show both higher average water vapor amounts and a much higher level of variability than the winter data. To understand this seasonal contrast, we consider three sources of tracer variability: wave-induced vertical motion across strong vertical gradients ("wave variability"), differences in source air masses resulting from horizontal transport ("source variability"), and changes induced along parcel paths due to physical processes ("path variability"). The winter and summer seasons show different mixes of these three sources of variability with more air originating in the tropical western Pacific during winter.

  10. Identified EM Earthquake Precursors (United States)

    Jones, Kenneth, II; Saxton, Patrick


    Many attempts have been made to determine a sound forecasting method regarding earthquakes and warn the public in turn. Presently, the animal kingdom leads the precursor list alluding to a transmission related source. By applying the animal-based model to an electromagnetic (EM) wave model, various hypotheses were formed, but the most interesting one required the use of a magnetometer with a differing design and geometry. To date, numerous, high-end magnetometers have been in use in close proximity to fault zones for potential earthquake forecasting; however, something is still amiss. The problem still resides with what exactly is forecastable and the investigating direction of EM. After a number of custom rock experiments, two hypotheses were formed which could answer the EM wave model. The first hypothesis concerned a sufficient and continuous electron movement either by surface or penetrative flow, and the second regarded a novel approach to radio transmission. Electron flow along fracture surfaces was determined to be inadequate in creating strong EM fields, because rock has a very high electrical resistance making it a high quality insulator. Penetrative flow could not be corroborated as well, because it was discovered that rock was absorbing and confining electrons to a very thin skin depth. Radio wave transmission and detection worked with every single test administered. This hypothesis was reviewed for propagating, long-wave generation with sufficient amplitude, and the capability of penetrating solid rock. Additionally, fracture spaces, either air or ion-filled, can facilitate this concept from great depths and allow for surficial detection. A few propagating precursor signals have been detected in the field occurring with associated phases using custom-built loop antennae. Field testing was conducted in Southern California from 2006-2011, and outside the NE Texas town of Timpson in February, 2013. The antennae have mobility and observations were noted for

  11. Earthquake likelihood model testing (United States)

    Schorlemmer, D.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Wiemer, S.; Jackson, D.D.; Rhoades, D.A.


    INTRODUCTIONThe Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) project aims to produce and evaluate alternate models of earthquake potential (probability per unit volume, magnitude, and time) for California. Based on differing assumptions, these models are produced to test the validity of their assumptions and to explore which models should be incorporated in seismic hazard and risk evaluation. Tests based on physical and geological criteria are useful but we focus on statistical methods using future earthquake catalog data only. We envision two evaluations: a test of consistency with observed data and a comparison of all pairs of models for relative consistency. Both tests are based on the likelihood method, and both are fully prospective (i.e., the models are not adjusted to fit the test data). To be tested, each model must assign a probability to any possible event within a specified region of space, time, and magnitude. For our tests the models must use a common format: earthquake rates in specified “bins” with location, magnitude, time, and focal mechanism limits.Seismology cannot yet deterministically predict individual earthquakes; however, it should seek the best possible models for forecasting earthquake occurrence. This paper describes the statistical rules of an experiment to examine and test earthquake forecasts. The primary purposes of the tests described below are to evaluate physical models for earthquakes, assure that source models used in seismic hazard and risk studies are consistent with earthquake data, and provide quantitative measures by which models can be assigned weights in a consensus model or be judged as suitable for particular regions.In this paper we develop a statistical method for testing earthquake likelihood models. A companion paper (Schorlemmer and Gerstenberger 2007, this issue) discusses the actual implementation of these tests in the framework of the RELM initiative.Statistical testing of hypotheses is a common task and a

  12. Unified Treatise of Phenomena of Seismic Fusion-Fission Under Seismonomy in the Light of Monistic Weltanschauung: the Doctrine of Dynamics Monism With Implication to the Earthquake Source Physics} (United States)

    Zaurov, D.


    Established profoundly new conceptual framework by the five postulates of seismonomy, enables unified treatise of processes such as dynamic structural devastation, seismic blowing up of mount ridges, collision physics, meteorite impact cratering, and seismic global faulting with insight into the earthquake source physics. Hence, by establishing the parametric method of identification of natural modes and then Parametric Scan- Window Observation of Dynamic Responses (PSW-method), it becomes possible to obtain crucial field data. Thus, earth-dam dynamics data revealed an essential non-stationarity of dam's dynamic characteristics throughout earthquakes, the effect of stochastic alternation of the locally-stationary modal states with the discrete characteristics of their spectral distribution. At this point, in the course of other, separate line of far beyond lasting quest concerning metaphysical constituents of matter, and then constitutive relation between excited modal oscillation of structures and causal pattern of their fracture, the results of such analysis, resuming obscurity of the well known jaggedness of observing earthquake spectra, were illuminated and perceived. It was succeeded, on the one hand, to establish unitary conceptualized framework of seismic records analysis consisting both the PSW- and spectral- analysis, which reformulated to be a statistical representation complementary to PSW-method, and, on the other hand, to realize genesis of the doctrine of dynamics monism consisting concepts of both: fission-fusion dynamics and dynamics coherentism as an inspiration of the paradigm of seismic fusion-fission phenomena. Global faulting originating straight plane faults, which often stretch through large scale substantially inhomogeneous volumes, are, uncontestably, the result of dynamics fission, the first step of dynamics binary division of an emerged geoseismoid onto two secondary seismoids with a potential, occasionally stretched rupture plane. That

  13. 3-D magnetotelluric imaging of the Phayao Fault Zone, Northern Thailand: Evidence for saline fluid in the source region of the 2014 Chiang Rai earthquake (United States)

    Boonchaisuk, Songkhun; Noisagool, Sutthipong; Amatyakul, Puwis; Rung-Arunwan, Tawat; Vachiratienchai, Chatchai; Siripunvaraporn, Weerachai


    Seismicity in Thailand had been relatively low for decades prior to the Mw 6.5 earthquake of 5 May 2014 which came as a surprise and was followed by thousands of aftershocks. Most of the epicenters were located in the transition region between the Mae Lao Segment (MLS) and the Pan Segment (PS) of the Phayao Fault Zone (PFZ). We conducted a 3-D magnetotelluric (MT) survey (31 sites) to image the deep PFZ structure. The shallow 3-D resistivity structure matches very well with the surface geology, while the deeper structures disclose many interesting resistive and conductive anomalies. However, the most interesting feature of this study is the large conductive anomaly (ML) located at a depth of 4 km to the mid-crust beneath the MLS near the seismogenic zone. Our current hypothesis is that the ML conductor has a highly interconnected aqueous fluid content and also plays crucial role in the earthquake sequence of the 5 May 2014 event. As our previous seismic waveform study revealed that the MLS has a relatively high fault plane instability, the fluid within the fractured fault would further reduce the fault strength. The accumulated pre-existing tectonic stress from the north can therefore overcome the maximum frictional strength of the MLS, and hence cause it to slip and produce the main shock. With the local structural heterogeneities and fluid in the fractured fault zones, the aftershocks then occurred on both the PS and MLS. This is in contrast to the Mae Chan Fault Zone (MCFZ) in the north which many scientists expected to generate a larger magnitude earthquake than any other faults. Since instrumental record, it has only generated a few Mw 4 earthquakes. Some of our MT stations were located within the MCFZ. However, there is no deep conductor as the conductor lies beneath the MLS. A lack of interconnected fluid within the deep fault beneath the MCFZ might be one of the reasons for the lower seismic activity from the MCFZ. Other geophysical methods, such as seismic

  14. Understanding earthquakes: The key role of radar images

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Atzori, Simone, E-mail: [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome (Italy)


    The investigation of the fault rupture underlying earthquakes greatly improved thanks to the spread of radar images. Following pioneer applications in the eighties, Interferometry from Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) gained a prominent role in geodesy. Its capability to measure millimetric deformations for wide areas and the increased data availability from the early nineties, made InSAR a diffused and accepted analysis tool in tectonics, though several factors contribute to reduce the data quality. With the introduction of analytical or numerical modeling, InSAR maps are used to infer the source of an earthquake by means of data inversion. Newly developed algorithms, known as InSAR time-series, allowed to further improve the data accuracy and completeness, strengthening the InSAR contribution even in the study of the inter- and post-seismic phases. In this work we describe the rationale at the base of the whole processing, showing its application to the New Zealand 2010–2011 seismic sequence.

  15. The 2004-2006 uplift episode at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy): Constraints from SBAS-DInSAR ENVISAT data and Bayesian source inference (United States)

    Trasatti, E.; Casu, F.; Giunchi, C.; Pepe, S.; Solaro, G.; Tagliaventi, S.; Berardino, P.; Manzo, M.; Pepe, A.; Ricciardi, G. P.; Sansosti, E.; Tizzani, P.; Zeni, G.; Lanari, R.


    We investigate the 2004-2006 uplift phase of Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) by exploiting the archive of ascending and descending ENVISAT SAR data acquired from November 2002 to November 2006. The SBAS-DInSAR technique is applied to generate displacement mean velocity maps and time series. An appropriate post-processing step is subsequently applied to map the areas whose temporal deformation behavior is correlated with that of the maximum uplift zone. Our results show that the deformation also extends outside the volcanological limits of the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff caldera, without significant discontinuities. The DInSAR data are inverted by considering a finite spheroid and an isotropic point-source. The inversion results suggest that the new uplift is characterized by a source location similar to the previous small uplift event of 2000 and to the long term subsidence of the 1990's. In particular, the source is located at a depth of about 3.2 km and very close to the city of Pozzuoli (about 800 m offshore, to the SW); the associated volume variation is about 1.1 106 m3/year.

  16. Stratigraphic and microfossil evidence for a 4500-year history of Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes and tsunamis at Yaquina River estuary, Oregon, USA (United States)

    Graehl, Nicholas A; Kelsey, Harvey M.; Witter, Robert C.; Hemphill-Haley, Eileen; Engelhart, Simon E.


    The Sallys Bend swamp and marsh area on the central Oregon coast onshore of the Cascadia subduction zone contains a sequence of buried coastal wetland soils that extends back ∼4500 yr B.P. The upper 10 of the 12 soils are represented in multiple cores. Each soil is abruptly overlain by a sandy deposit and then, in most cases, by greater than 10 cm of mud. For eight of the 10 buried soils, times of soil burial are constrained through radiocarbon ages on fine, delicate detritus from the top of the buried soil; for two of the buried soils, diatom and foraminifera data constrain paleoenvironment at the time of soil burial.We infer that each buried soil represents a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake because the soils are laterally extensive and abruptly overlain by sandy deposits and mud. Preservation of coseismically buried soils occurred from 4500 yr ago until ∼500–600 yr ago, after which preservation was compromised by cessation of gradual relative sea-level rise, which in turn precluded drowning of marsh soils during instances of coseismic subsidence. Based on grain-size and microfossil data, sandy deposits overlying buried soils accumulated immediately after a subduction zone earthquake, during tsunami incursion into Sallys Bend. The possibility that the sandy deposits were sourced directly from landslides triggered upstream in the Yaquina River basin by seismic shaking was discounted based on sedimentologic, microfossil, and depositional site characteristics of the sandy deposits, which were inconsistent with a fluvial origin. Biostratigraphic analyses of sediment above two buried soils—in the case of two earthquakes, one occurring shortly after 1541–1708 cal. yr B.P. and the other occurring shortly after 3227–3444 cal. yr B.P.—provide estimates that coseismic subsidence was a minimum of 0.4 m. The average recurrence interval of subduction zone earthquakes is 420–580 yr, based on an ∼3750–4050-yr-long record and seven to nine interearthquake

  17. The changes in the electric conductivity of the lithosphere in the source region of the strongest Olyutora earthquake in the Koryak highlands (United States)

    Moroz, Yu. F.; Moroz, T. A.; Loginov, V. A.; Nurmukhamedov, A. G.; Alekseev, D. A.


    The results of the magnetotelluric (MT) soundings before and after an earthquake are analyzed. The interpretation is based on the longitudinal and transverse MT curves (along and across the strike of the main tectonic elements, respectively). The MT curves are distorted by the ρ- and coast effect. The distortions due to the coast effect are estimated by the testing three-dimensional (3D) model. It is established that the coast effect distortion at the periods up to 1000 s is small and can be disregarded. The divergence of the longitudinal and transverse MT curves, which points to the presence of the deep faults, is thoroughly studied. The inversion of the MTsounding curves is carried out by the REBOCC program of the numerical two-dimensional modeling. This program implements the procedures of elimination of the ρ-effect and the joint inversion of the longitudinal and transverse MT sounding curves. The obtained geoelectrical cross sections provide an insight into the structure of electrical conductivity of the lithosphere before and after the earthquake. The more intense variations in the electric conductivity are observed in the zone of the deep faults. These variations are related to the changes in the porosity and saturation of the rocks by the highly mineralized fluids.

  18. Implications of the Mw9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake for ground motion scaling with source, path, and site parameters (United States)

    Stewart, Jonathan P.; Midorikawa, Saburoh; Graves, Robert W.; Khodaverdi, Khatareh; Kishida, Tadahiro; Miura, Hiroyuki; Bozorgnia, Yousef; Campbell, Kenneth W.


    The Mw9.0 Tohoku-oki Japan earthquake produced approximately 2,000 ground motion recordings. We consider 1,238 three-component accelerograms corrected with component-specific low-cut filters. The recordings have rupture distances between 44 km and 1,000 km, time-averaged shear wave velocities of VS30 = 90 m/s to 1,900 m/s, and usable response spectral periods of 0.01 sec to >10 sec. The data support the notion that the increase of ground motions with magnitude saturates at large magnitudes. High-frequency ground motions demonstrate faster attenuation with distance in backarc than in forearc regions, which is only captured by one of the four considered ground motion prediction equations for subduction earthquakes. Recordings within 100 km of the fault are used to estimate event terms, which are generally positive (indicating model underprediction) at short periods and zero or negative (overprediction) at long periods. We find site amplification to scale minimally with VS30 at high frequencies, in contrast with other active tectonic regions, but to scale strongly with VS30 at low frequencies.

  19. Chapter A. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Strong Ground Motion (United States)

    Borcherdt, Roger D.


    (artificial fill and bay mud). These exceptional ground-motion data are used by the authors of the papers in this chapter to infer radiation characteristics of the earthquake source, identify dominant propagation characteristics of the Earth?s crust, quantify amplification characteristics of near-surface geologic deposits, develop general amplification factors for site-dependent building-code provisions, and revise earthquake-hazard assessments for the San Francisco Bay region. Interpretations of additional data recorded in well-instrumented buildings, dams, and freeway overpasses are provided in other chapters of this report.

  20. Earthquake and volcanic risks: issues for the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solidum, Dr. Renato U.


    The proposed re-commissioning of the mothballed Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) has raised objections that include the perceived unsafe siting of the BNPP on Mt. Natib, a potentially active volcano, in an earthquake-prone region. This concern must be evaluated through thorough seismological, paleo-seismic, volcanological and engineering studies. The BNPP sits on Napot Point on the southwest foot slope of Mt. Natib, an andesitic to dacitic stratovolcano just 30 kms south of Mt. Pinatubo. Natib's evolution is poorly known, but involved at least 3 explosive summit eruptions that formed a 6 km-diameter coalescent caldera and a younger 2-km diameter caldera. Pyroclastic flows define the cone surface, and available age dating includes a ±27 ka 14C age for a deposit on the eastern flanks and an 11-18 ka relative dating for suspected pyroclastic deposits in Subic Bay (1). Whether these represent the most recent eruptions is uncertain. A detailed magmatic/eruptive history defining magmatic recharge and eruption recurrence rates, from which probabilities for future eruptive activity can be analyzed, will be necessary for quantifying volcanic risk. Furthermore, Natib,Pinatubo and adjacent Mariveles are part of the Luzon Arc and associated with ongoing subduction along the Manila Trench. Subduction earthquakes are common, but apart from these, seismic risk is also being attributted to tectonic structures inland that include reported on site faults inferred from drilling, basin faults seen in reflection profiles (1), the Subic Bay Fault Zone delineated by magmatic studies (2) and various lineaments inferred from satellite imageries. These, plus seismicity in the region are being argued as indicators of earthquake threat. However, much emphasis is given maximum seismic magnitudes rather than peak ground accelerations (PGAs), epicentral rather than focal sources,and the inference of faults/lineaments rather than paleoseismic evidence of recent faulting. Paleoseismic studies of

  1. Seismology: energy radiation from the Sumatra earthquake. (United States)

    Ni, Sidao; Kanamori, Hiroo; Helmberger, Don


    We determined the duration of high-frequency energy radiation from Indonesia's great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake (26 December 2004) to be about 500 seconds. This duration can be translated into a rupture length of about 1,200 km, which is more than twice as long as that inferred from body-wave analyses performed soon after the event. Our analysis was able rapidly to define the extent of rupture, thereby aiding the assessment of seismic hazard in the immediate future.

  2. A single-force model for the 1975 Kalapana, Hawaii, Earthquake (United States)

    Eissler, Holly K.; Kanamori, Hiroo


    A single force mechanism is investigated as the source of long-period seismic radiation from the 1975 Kalapana, Hawaii, earthquake (MS = 7.1). The observed Love wave radiation pattern determined from the spectra of World-Wide Standard Seismograph Network and High Gain Long Period records at 100 s is two-lobed with azimuth, consistent with a near-horizontal single force acting opposite (strike ˜330°) to the observed displacement direction of the earthquake; this pattern is inconsistent with the expected double-couple pattern. Assuming a form of the force time history of a one-cycle sinusoid, the total duration of the event estimated from Rayleigh waves at two International Deployment of Accelerometers stations is approximately 180 s. The peak amplitude fo of the time function is 1 × 1015 N from amplitudes of Love and Rayleigh waves. The interpretation is that the bulk of the seismic radiation was produced by large-scale slumping of a large area of the south flank of Kilauea volcano. The single force is a crude representation of the effect on the earth of the motion of a partially decoupled large slide mass. Using the mass estimated from the tsunami generation area (˜ 1015-1016 kg), the peak acceleration of the slide block (0.1-1 m s-2) inferred from the seismic force is comparable with the acceleration due to gravity on a gently inclined plane. The slump model for the Kalapana earthquake is also more qualitatively consistent with the large horizontal deformation (8 m on land) and tsunami associated with the earthquake, which are difficult to explain with the conventional double-couple source model. The single-force source has been used previously to model the long-period seismic waves from the landslide accompanying the eruption of Mount St. Helens volcano, and may explain other anomalous seismic events as being due to massive slumping of sediments or unconsolidated material and not to elastic dislocation.

  3. Application of earthquake source modeling to assess the relative differences between seismic ground motion in the Eastern and Western regions of the United States and to characterize the type and direction of incoming seismic waves. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Apsel, R.J.; Frazier, G.A.; Jurkevics, A.; Fried, J.C.


    This report assesses the relative difference between seismic ground motion in the Eastern (EUS) and Western (WUS) regions of the United States; and provides the necessary input to soil-structure interaction codes concerning type and propagation direction for incoming seismic waves. Implicit is the relevance to the Zion Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) site. The relative differences between seismic ground motions in EUS and WUS are assumed to be principally caused by differences in material attenuation. Earthquake rupture and wave propagation through the earth were simulated by performing numerical calculations. Typical results for a Western United States earth structure indicate that essentially no seismic energy emerges at angles shallower than 45 degrees except for low frequency emission from shallow zones of earthquake rupture. The same simulations are repeated for the ZNPP earth structure. The effective incoming waves are seen to be emerging within ten degrees of vertical at Zion for all source/receiver geometries and all frequencies of interest. At high frequency, the reduced material attenuation (corresponding to the higher EUS quality factors) additionally constrains the effective incoming waves to emerge within five degrees of vertical.

  4. Sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffy, L.P.


    This paper discusses the sources of radiation in the narrow perspective of radioactivity and the even narrow perspective of those sources that concern environmental management and restoration activities at DOE facilities, as well as a few related sources. Sources of irritation, Sources of inflammatory jingoism, and Sources of information. First, the sources of irritation fall into three categories: No reliable scientific ombudsman to speak without bias and prejudice for the public good, Technical jargon with unclear definitions exists within the radioactive nomenclature, and Scientific community keeps a low-profile with regard to public information. The next area of personal concern are the sources of inflammation. This include such things as: Plutonium being described as the most dangerous substance known to man, The amount of plutonium required to make a bomb, Talk of transuranic waste containing plutonium and its health affects, TMI-2 and Chernobyl being described as Siamese twins, Inadequate information on low-level disposal sites and current regulatory requirements under 10 CFR 61, Enhanced engineered waste disposal not being presented to the public accurately. Numerous sources of disinformation regarding low level radiation high-level radiation, Elusive nature of the scientific community, The Federal and State Health Agencies resources to address comparative risk, and Regulatory agencies speaking out without the support of the scientific community

  5. New geological perspectives on earthquake recurrence models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, D.P.


    In most areas of the world the record of historical seismicity is too short or uncertain to accurately characterize the future distribution of earthquakes of different sizes in time and space. Most faults have not ruptured once, let alone repeatedly. Ultimately, the ability to correctly forecast the magnitude, location, and probability of future earthquakes depends on how well one can quantify the past behavior of earthquake sources. Paleoseismological trenching of active faults, historical surface ruptures, liquefaction features, and shaking-induced ground deformation structures provides fundamental information on the past behavior of earthquake sources. These studies quantify (a) the timing of individual past earthquakes and fault slip rates, which lead to estimates of recurrence intervals and the development of recurrence models and (b) the amount of displacement during individual events, which allows estimates of the sizes of past earthquakes on a fault. When timing and slip per event are combined with information on fault zone geometry and structure, models that define individual rupture segments can be developed. Paleoseismicity data, in the form of timing and size of past events, provide a window into the driving mechanism of the earthquake engine--the cycle of stress build-up and release

  6. Earthquake friction (United States)

    Mulargia, Francesco; Bizzarri, Andrea


    Laboratory friction slip experiments on rocks provide firm evidence that the static friction coefficient μ has values ∼0.7. This would imply large amounts of heat produced by seismically active faults, but no heat flow anomaly is observed, and mineralogic evidence of frictional heating is virtually absent. This stands for lower μ values ∼0.2, as also required by the observed orientation of faults with respect to the maximum compressive stress. We show that accounting for the thermal and mechanical energy balance of the system removes this inconsistence, implying a multi-stage strain release process. The first stage consists of a small and slow aseismic slip at high friction on pre-existent stress concentrators within the fault volume but angled with the main fault as Riedel cracks. This introduces a second stage dominated by frictional temperature increase inducing local pressurization of pore fluids around the slip patches, which is in turn followed by a third stage in which thermal diffusion extends the frictionally heated zones making them coalesce into a connected pressurized region oriented as the fault plane. Then, the system enters a state of equivalent low static friction in which it can undergo the fast elastic radiation slip prescribed by dislocation earthquake models.


    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper


    Collateral evolution the problem of updating several library-using programs in response to API changes in the used library. In this dissertation we address the issue of understanding collateral evolutions by automatically inferring a high-level specification of the changes evident in a given set...... specifications inferred by spdiff in Linux are shown. We find that the inferred specifications concisely capture the actual collateral evolution performed in the examples....