Statistical aspects and risks of human-caused earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Klose, C. D.

2013-12-01

The seismological community invests ample human capital and financial resources to research and predict risks associated with earthquakes. Industries such as the insurance and re-insurance sector are equally interested in using probabilistic risk models developed by the scientific community to transfer risks. These models are used to predict expected losses due to naturally occurring earthquakes. But what about the risks associated with human-caused earthquakes? Such risk models are largely absent from both industry and academic discourse. In countries around the world, informed citizens are becoming increasingly aware and concerned that this economic bias is not sustainable for long-term economic growth, environmental and human security. Ultimately, citizens look to their government officials to hold industry accountable. In the Netherlands, for example, the hydrocarbon industry is held accountable for causing earthquakes near Groningen. In Switzerland, geothermal power plants were shut down or suspended because they caused earthquakes in canton Basel and St. Gallen. The public and the private non-extractive industry needs access to information about earthquake risks in connection with sub/urban geoengineeing activities, including natural gas production through fracking, geothermal energy production, carbon sequestration, mining and water irrigation. This presentation illuminates statistical aspects of human-caused earthquakes with respect to different geologic environments. Statistical findings are based on the first catalog of human-caused earthquakes (in Klose 2013). Findings are discussed which include the odds to die during a medium-size earthquake that is set off by geomechanical pollution. Any kind of geoengineering activity causes this type of pollution and increases the likelihood of triggering nearby faults to rupture.

Change of risk information disclosure in annual report. Before and after earthquake disaster

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ueno, Takefumi

2011-01-01

This research examines how risk information disclosure is changing in annual report before and after East Japan Great Earthquake Disaster. Company voluntary disclose risk information in annual report. Manager can decide a style and items of risk information. This paper explores risk information disclosures of Tokyo Electric Power Company, Chubu Power Electric Company, Kansai Electric Power Company and Toyota Motor Corporation. The managers except Tokyo Electric Company are likely to disclose own catastrophe risk before the disaster. However, they do not try to reduce their risk. Corporations' risk information do not link with own risk management. (author)

Vrancea earthquakes. Courses for specific actions to mitigate seismic risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Marmureanu, Alexandru

2005-01-01

Earthquakes in the Carpathian-Pannonian region are confined to the crust, except the Vrancea zone, where earthquakes with focal depth down to 200 Km occur. For example, the ruptured area migrated from 150 km to 180 km (November 10,1940, M w = 7.7) from 90 km to 110 km (March 4, 1977, M w 7.4), from 130 km to 150 km (August 30, 1986, M w = 7.1) and from 70 km to 90 km (May 30, 1990, M w = 6.9) depth. The depth interval between 110 km and 130 km remains not ruptured since 1802, October 26, when it was the strongest earthquake occurred in this part of Central Europe. The magnitude is assumed to be M w = 7.9 - 8.0 and this depth interval is a natural candidate for the next strong Vrancea event. While no country in the world is entirely safe, the lack of capacity to limit the impact of seismic hazards remains a major burden for all countries and while the world has witnessed an exponential increase in human and material losses due to natural disasters given by earthquakes, there is a need to reverse trends in seismic risk mitigation to future events. Main courses for specific actions to mitigate the seismic risk given by strong deep Vrancea earthquakes should be considered as key for development actions: - Early warning system for industrial facilities. Early warning is more than a technological instrument to detect, monitor and submit warnings. It should become part of a management information system for decision-making in the context of national institutional frameworks for disaster management and part of national and local strategies and programmers for risk mitigation; - Prediction program of Vrancea strong earthquakes of short and long term; - Hazard seismic map of Romania. The wrong assessment of the seismic hazard can lead to dramatic situations as those from Bucharest or Kobe. Before the 1977 Vrancea earthquake, the city of Bucharest was designed to intensity I = VII (MMI) and the real intensity was I = IX1/2-X (MMI); - Seismic microzonation of large populated

Significance of earthquake risk in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sues, R.H.; Amico, P.J.; Campbell, R.D.

1990-01-01

During the last eight years, approximately 25 utility-sponsored probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) have been conducted for US nuclear reactors. Of these, ten have been published, seven of which have included complete seismic risk assessment. The results of the seven published PRAs are reviewed here in order to ascertain the significance of the risk due to earthquake initiating events. While PRA methodology has been in a state of development over the past seven years, and the results are subject to interpretation (as discussed in the paper), from the review conducted it is clear that earthquake-induced initiating events are important risk contributors. It is concluded that earthquake initiating events should not be dismissed, a priori, in any nuclear plant risk assessment. (orig.)

Meeting the Challenge of Earthquake Risk Globalisation: Towards the Global Earthquake Model GEM (Sergey Soloviev Medal Lecture)

Science.gov (United States)

Zschau, J.

2009-04-01

Earthquake risk, like natural risks in general, has become a highly dynamic and globally interdependent phenomenon. Due to the "urban explosion" in the Third World, an increasingly complex cross linking of critical infrastructure and lifelines in the industrial nations and a growing globalisation of the world's economies, we are presently facing a dramatic increase of our society's vulnerability to earthquakes in practically all seismic regions on our globe. Such fast and global changes cannot be captured with conventional earthquake risk models anymore. The sciences in this field are, therefore, asked to come up with new solutions that are no longer exclusively aiming at the best possible quantification of the present risks but also keep an eye on their changes with time and allow to project these into the future. This does not apply to the vulnerablity component of earthquake risk alone, but also to its hazard component which has been realized to be time-dependent, too. The challenges of earthquake risk dynamics and -globalisation have recently been accepted by the Global Science Forum of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD - GSF) who initiated the "Global Earthquake Model (GEM)", a public-private partnership for establishing an independent standard to calculate, monitor and communicate earthquake risk globally, raise awareness and promote mitigation.

Vrancea earthquakes. Specific actions to mitigate seismic risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Marmureanu, Alexandru

2005-01-01

natural disasters given by earthquakes, there is a need to reverse trends in seismic risk mitigation to future events. Main courses of specific action to mitigate the seismic risks from strong deep Vrancea earthquakes should be considered as key to future development projects, including: - Early warning system for industrial facilities; - Short and long term prediction program of strong Vrancea earthquakes; - Seismic hazard map of Romania; - Seismic microzonation of large populated cities; - Shake map; - Seismic tomography of dams for avoiding disasters. The quality of life and the security of infrastructure (including human services, civil and industrial structures, financial infrastructure, information transmission and processing systems) in every nation are increasingly vulnerable to disasters caused by events that have geological, atmospheric, hydrologic, and technological origins. As UN Secretary General Kofi Annan pointed out, 'Building a culture of prevention is not easy. While the costs of prevention have to be paid in the present, its benefits lie in a distant future'. In other words: Prevention pays off. This may not always become apparent immediately, but, in the long run, the benefits from prevention measures will always outweigh their costs by far. Romania is an earthquake prone area and these main specific actions are really contributing to seismic risk mitigation. These specific actions are provided for in Law nr. 372/March 18,2004 -'The National Program of Seismic Risk Management'. (authors)

Earthquake Hazard and Risk in New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Apel, E. V.; Nyst, M.; Fitzenz, D. D.; Molas, G.

2014-12-01

To quantify risk in New Zealand we examine the impact of updating the seismic hazard model. The previous RMS New Zealand hazard model is based on the 2002 probabilistic seismic hazard maps for New Zealand (Stirling et al., 2002). The 2015 RMS model, based on Stirling et al., (2012) will update several key source parameters. These updates include: implementation a new set of crustal faults including multi-segment ruptures, updating the subduction zone geometry and reccurrence rate and implementing new background rates and a robust methodology for modeling background earthquake sources. The number of crustal faults has increased by over 200 from the 2002 model, to the 2012 model which now includes over 500 individual fault sources. This includes the additions of many offshore faults in northern, east-central, and southwest regions. We also use the recent data to update the source geometry of the Hikurangi subduction zone (Wallace, 2009; Williams et al., 2013). We compare hazard changes in our updated model with those from the previous version. Changes between the two maps are discussed as well as the drivers for these changes. We examine the impact the hazard model changes have on New Zealand earthquake risk. Considered risk metrics include average annual loss, an annualized expected loss level used by insurers to determine the costs of earthquake insurance (and premium levels), and the loss exceedance probability curve used by insurers to address their solvency and manage their portfolio risk. We analyze risk profile changes in areas with large population density and for structures of economic and financial importance. New Zealand is interesting in that the city with the majority of the risk exposure in the country (Auckland) lies in the region of lowest hazard, where we don't have a lot of information about the location of faults and distributed seismicity is modeled by averaged Mw-frequency relationships on area sources. Thus small changes to the background rates

Crisis management aspects of bam catastrophic earthquake: review article.

Science.gov (United States)

Sadeghi-Bazargani, Homayoun; Azami-Aghdash, Saber; Kazemi, Abdolhassan; Ziapour, Behrad

2015-01-01

Bam earthquake was the most catastrophic natural disasters in recent years. The aim of this study was to review different aspects of crisis management during and after the catastrophic earthquake in Bam City, Iran. Data needed for this systematic review were collected through searching PubMed, EMBASE and SID databases, for the period from 2003 to 2011. Keywords included earthquake, Iran and Bam earthquake. The data were summarized and were analyzed using Content Analysis. Out of 422 articles, 25 articles were included in the study. Crisis Management aspects and existing pitfalls were classified into seven categories including planning and organization, human resource management, management of logistics, international humanitarian aids, field performance of the military and security forces, health and medical service provision, and information management. Positive aspects and major pitfalls of crisis management have been introduced in all the mentioned categories. The available evidence indicated poor crisis management during Bam earthquake that resulted in aggravating the losses as well as diminishing the effect of interventions. Thus, concerning the importance of different aspects of the crisis management and the high prevalence of disasters in Iran, the observed vulnerability in disaster management process should be addressed.

Burden and Management of Noncommunicable Diseases After Earthquakes and Tsunamis.

Science.gov (United States)

Suneja, Amit; Gakh, Maxim; Rutkow, Lainie

This integrative review examines extant literature assessing the burden and management of noncommunicable diseases 6 months or more after earthquakes and tsunamis. We conducted an integrative review to identify and characterize the strength of published studies about noncommunicable disease-specific outcomes and interventions at least 6 months after an earthquake and/or tsunami. We included disasters that occurred from 2004 to 2016. We focused primarily on the World Health Organization noncommunicable disease designations to define chronic disease, but we also included chronic renal disease, risk factors for noncommunicable diseases, and other chronic diseases or symptoms. After removing duplicates, our search yielded 6,188 articles. Twenty-five articles met our inclusion criteria, some discussing multiple noncommunicable diseases. Results demonstrate that existing medical conditions may worsen and subsequently improve, new diseases may develop, and risk factors, such as weight and cholesterol levels, may increase for several years after an earthquake and/or tsunami. We make 3 recommendations for practitioners and researchers: (1) plan for noncommunicable disease management further into the recovery period of disaster; (2) increase research on the burden of noncommunicable diseases, the treatment modalities employed, resulting population-level outcomes in the postdisaster setting, and existing models to improve stakeholder coordination and action regarding noncommunicable diseases after disasters; and (3) coordinate with preexisting provision networks, especially primary care.

POST Earthquake Debris Management - AN Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Sarkar, Raju

Every year natural disasters, such as fires, floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, landslides, tsunami, and tornadoes, challenge various communities of the world. Earthquakes strike with varying degrees of severity and pose both short- and long-term challenges to public service providers. Earthquakes generate shock waves and displace the ground along fault lines. These seismic forces can bring down buildings and bridges in a localized area and damage buildings and other structures in a far wider area. Secondary damage from fires, explosions, and localized flooding from broken water pipes can increase the amount of debris. Earthquake debris includes building materials, personal property, and sediment from landslides. The management of this debris, as well as the waste generated during the reconstruction works, can place significant challenges on the national and local capacities. Debris removal is a major component of every post earthquake recovery operation. Much of the debris generated from earthquake is not hazardous. Soil, building material, and green waste, such as trees and shrubs, make up most of the volume of earthquake debris. These wastes not only create significant health problems and a very unpleasant living environment if not disposed of safely and appropriately, but also can subsequently impose economical burdens on the reconstruction phase. In practice, most of the debris may be either disposed of at landfill sites, reused as materials for construction or recycled into useful commodities Therefore, the debris clearance operation should focus on the geotechnical engineering approach as an important post earthquake issue to control the quality of the incoming flow of potential soil materials. In this paper, the importance of an emergency management perspective in this geotechnical approach that takes into account the different criteria related to the operation execution is proposed by highlighting the key issues concerning the handling of the construction

Earthquake Disaster Risk Index for Cities: Baku, Yerevan, Tbilisi

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Varazanashvili, O.; Mammadli, T.; Nazaretyan, S.

2005-01-01

For comparative analysis of seismic risk in the capitals of the South Caucasian States - Baku, Yerevan and Tbilisi - the methodology of determination of earthquake disaster risk index (EDRI) has been used. Earthquake disaster risk indexes have been determined for considered cities. EDRI-analysis is performed, some peculiarities of main risk factors are revealed and risk portraits are made in each city of the given sample. (author)

Incorporating human-triggered earthquake risks into energy and water policies

Science.gov (United States)

Klose, C. D.; Seeber, L.; Jacob, K. H.

2010-12-01

A comprehensive understanding of earthquake risks in urbanized regions requires an accurate assessment of both urban vulnerabilities and hazards from earthquakes, including ones whose timing might be affected by human activities. Socioeconomic risks associated with human-triggered earthquakes are often misconstrued and receive little scientific, legal, and public attention. Worldwide, more than 200 damaging earthquakes, associated with industrialization and urbanization, were documented since the 20th century. Geomechanical pollution due to large-scale geoengineering activities can advance the clock of earthquakes, trigger new seismic events or even shot down natural background seismicity. Activities include mining, hydrocarbon production, fluid injections, water reservoir impoundments and deep-well geothermal energy production. This type of geohazard has impacts on human security on a regional and national level. Some planned or considered future engineering projects raise particularly strong concerns about triggered earthquakes, such as for instance, sequestration of carbon dioxide by injecting it deep underground and large-scale natural gas production in the Marcellus shale in the Appalacian basin. Worldwide examples of earthquakes are discussed, including their associated losses of human life and monetary losses (e.g., 1989 Newcastle and Volkershausen earthquakes, 2001 Killari earthquake, 2006 Basel earthquake, 2010 Wenchuan earthquake). An overview is given on global statistics of human-triggered earthquakes, including depths and time delay of triggering. Lastly, strategies are described, including risk mitigation measures such as urban planning adaptations and seismic hazard mapping.

A Case Study of the Bam Earthquake to Establish a Pattern for Earthquake Management in Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Keramatollah Ziari

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The field of crisis management knowledge and expertise is associated with a wide range of fields. Knowledge-based crisis management is a combination of science, art and practice. Iran is an earthquake-prone country. Through years several earthquakes have happened in the country resulting in many human and financial losses. According to scientific standards, the first 24 hours following an earthquake is the most valuable time for saving victims. Yet in the case of Bam only 5% of the victims were rescued within the first 48 hours. The success of disaster management is evaluated in terms of programming, raising public participation, organizing and hiring manpower, and supervising the management process. In this study disaster management is divided into three stages in which different actions are required. The stages and actions are explained in detail. Moreover, features, effects, and losses of the earthquake are described.

Earthquake Risk Management of Underground Lifelines in the Urban Area of Catania

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grasso, S.; Maugeri, M.

2008-01-01

Lifelines typically include the following five utility networks: potable water, sewage natural gas, electric power, telecommunication and transportation system. The response of lifeline systems, like gas and water networks, during a strong earthquake, can be conveniently evaluated with the estimated average number of ruptures per km of pipe. These ruptures may be caused either by fault ruptures crossing, or by permanent deformations of the soil mass (landslides, liquefaction), or by transient soil deformations caused by seismic wave propagation. The possible consequences of damaging earthquakes on transportation systems may be the reduction or the interruption of traffic flow, as well as the impact on the emergency response and on the recovery assistance. A critical element in the emergency management is the closure of roads due to fallen obstacles and debris of collapsed buildings.The earthquake-induced damage to buried pipes is expressed in terms of repair rate (RR), defined as the number of repairs divided by the pipe length (km) exposed to a particular level of seismic demand; this number is a function of the pipe material (and joint type), of the pipe diameter and of the ground shaking level, measured in terms of peak horizontal ground velocity (PGV) or permanent ground displacement (PGD). The development of damage algorithms for buried pipelines is primarily based on empirical evidence, tempered with engineering judgment and sometimes by analytical formulations.For the city of Catania, in the present work use has been made of the correlation between RR and peak horizontal ground velocity by American Lifelines Alliance (ALA, 2001), for the verifications of main buried pipelines. The performance of the main buried distribution networks has been evaluated for the Level I earthquake scenario (January 11, 1693 event I = XI, M 7.3) and for the Level II earthquake scenario (February 20, 1818 event I = IX, M 6.2).Seismic damage scenario of main gas pipelines and

Earthquake insurance pricing: a risk-based approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Jeng-Hsiang

2018-04-01

Flat earthquake premiums are 'uniformly' set for a variety of buildings in many countries, neglecting the fact that the risk of damage to buildings by earthquakes is based on a wide range of factors. How these factors influence the insurance premiums is worth being studied further. Proposed herein is a risk-based approach to estimate the earthquake insurance rates of buildings. Examples of application of the approach to buildings located in Taipei city of Taiwan were examined. Then, the earthquake insurance rates for the buildings investigated were calculated and tabulated. To fulfil insurance rating, the buildings were classified into 15 model building types according to their construction materials and building height. Seismic design levels were also considered in insurance rating in response to the effect of seismic zone and construction years of buildings. This paper may be of interest to insurers, actuaries, and private and public sectors of insurance. © 2018 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2018.

Challenges to communicate risks of human-caused earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Klose, C. D.

2014-12-01

The awareness of natural hazards has been up-trending in recent years. In particular, this is true for earthquakes, which increase in frequency and magnitude in regions that normally do not experience seismic activity. In fact, one of the major concerns for many communities and businesses is that humans today seem to cause earthquakes due to large-scale shale gas production, dewatering and flooding of mines and deep geothermal power production. Accordingly, without opposing any of these technologies it should be a priority of earth scientists who are researching natural hazards to communicate earthquake risks. This presentation discusses the challenges that earth scientists are facing to properly communicate earthquake risks, in light of the fact that human-caused earthquakes are an environmental change affecting only some communities and businesses. Communication channels may range from research papers, books and class room lectures to outreach events and programs, popular media events or even social media networks.

Magnitudes and frequencies of earthquakes in relation to seismic risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sharma, R.D.

1989-01-01

Estimating the frequencies of occurrence of earthquakes of different magnitudes on a regional basis is an important task in estimating seismic risk at a construction site. Analysis of global earthquake data provides an insight into the magnitudes frequency relationship in a statistical manner. It turns out that, whereas a linear relationship between the logarithm of earthquake occurrence rates and the corresponding earthquake magnitudes fits well in the magnitude range between 5 and 7, a second degree polynomial in M, the earthquake magnitude provides a better description of the frequencies of earthquakes in a much wider range of magnitudes. It may be possible to adopt magnitude frequency relation for regions, for which adequate earthquake data are not available, to carry out seismic risk calculations. (author). 32 refs., 8 tabs., 7 figs

Impact of Short-term Changes In Earthquake Hazard on Risk In Christchurch, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Nyst, M.

2012-12-01

The recent Mw 7.1, 4 September 2010 Darfield, and Mw 6.2, 22 February 2011 Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes and the following aftershock activity completely changed the existing view on earthquake hazard of the Christchurch area. Not only have several faults been added to the New Zealand fault database, the main shocks were also followed by significant increases in seismicity due to high aftershock activity throughout the Christchurch region that is still on-going. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) models take into account a stochastic event set, the full range of possible events that can cause damage or loss at a particular location. This allows insurance companies to look at their risk profiles via average annual losses (AAL) and loss-exceedance curves. The loss-exceedance curve is derived from the full suite of seismic events that could impact the insured exposure and plots the probability of exceeding a particular loss level over a certain period. Insurers manage their risk by focusing on a certain return period exceedance benchmark, typically between the 100 and 250 year return period loss level, and then reserve the amount of money needed to account for that return period loss level, their so called capacity. This component of risk management is not too sensitive to short-term changes in risk due to aftershock seismicity, as it is mostly dominated by longer-return period, larger magnitude, more damaging events. However, because the secondairy uncertainties are taken into account when calculating the exceedance probability, even the longer return period losses can still experience significant impact from the inclusion of time-dependent earthquake behavior. AAL is calculated by summing the product of the expected loss level and the annual rate for all events in the event set that cause damage or loss at a particular location. This relatively simple metric is an important factor in setting the annual premiums. By annualizing the expected losses

Scenario-based earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Baku (Azerbaijan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Babayev

2010-12-01

Full Text Available A rapid growth of population, intensive civil and industrial building, land and water instabilities (e.g. landslides, significant underground water level fluctuations, and the lack of public awareness regarding seismic hazard contribute to the increase of vulnerability of Baku (the capital city of the Republic of Azerbaijan to earthquakes. In this study, we assess an earthquake risk in the city determined as a convolution of seismic hazard (in terms of the surface peak ground acceleration, PGA, vulnerability (due to building construction fragility, population features, the gross domestic product per capita, and landslide's occurrence, and exposure of infrastructure and critical facilities. The earthquake risk assessment provides useful information to identify the factors influencing the risk. A deterministic seismic hazard for Baku is analysed for four earthquake scenarios: near, far, local, and extreme events. The seismic hazard models demonstrate the level of ground shaking in the city: PGA high values are predicted in the southern coastal and north-eastern parts of the city and in some parts of the downtown. The PGA attains its maximal values for the local and extreme earthquake scenarios. We show that the quality of buildings and the probability of their damage, the distribution of urban population, exposure, and the pattern of peak ground acceleration contribute to the seismic risk, meanwhile the vulnerability factors play a more prominent role for all earthquake scenarios. Our results can allow elaborating strategic countermeasure plans for the earthquake risk mitigation in the Baku city.

Probabilistic risk assessment of earthquakes at the Rocky Flats Plant and subsequent upgrade to reduce risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Day, S.A.

1989-01-01

An analysis to determine the risk associated with earthquakes at the Rocky Flats Plant was performed. Seismic analyses and structural evaluations were used to postulate building and equipment damage and radiological releases to the environment from various magnitudes of earthquakes. Dispersion modeling and dose assessment to the public were then calculated. The frequency of occurrence of various magnitudes of earthquakes were determined from the Department of Energy natural Phenomena Hazards Modeling Project. Risk to the public was probabilistically assessed for each magnitude of earthquake and for overall seismic risk. Based on the results of this Probabilistic Risk Assessment and a cost/benefit analysis, seismic upgrades are being implemented for several plutonium-handling facilities for the purpose of risk reduction

Earthquake risk assessment of building structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ellingwood, Bruce R.

2001-01-01

During the past two decades, probabilistic risk analysis tools have been applied to assess the performance of new and existing building structural systems. Structural design and evaluation of buildings and other facilities with regard to their ability to withstand the effects of earthquakes requires special considerations that are not normally a part of such evaluations for other occupancy, service and environmental loads. This paper reviews some of these special considerations, specifically as they pertain to probability-based codified design and reliability-based condition assessment of existing buildings. Difficulties experienced in implementing probability-based limit states design criteria for earthquake are summarized. Comparisons of predicted and observed building damage highlight the limitations of using current deterministic approaches for post-earthquake building condition assessment. The importance of inherent randomness and modeling uncertainty in forecasting building performance is examined through a building fragility assessment of a steel frame with welded connections that was damaged during the Northridge Earthquake of 1994. The prospects for future improvements in earthquake-resistant design procedures based on a more rational probability-based treatment of uncertainty are examined

POST Earthquake Debris Management — AN Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Sarkar, Raju

Every year natural disasters, such as fires, floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, landslides, tsunami, and tornadoes, challenge various communities of the world. Earthquakes strike with varying degrees of severity and pose both short- and long-term challenges to public service providers. Earthquakes generate shock waves and displace the ground along fault lines. These seismic forces can bring down buildings and bridges in a localized area and damage buildings and other structures in a far wider area. Secondary damage from fires, explosions, and localized flooding from broken water pipes can increase the amount of debris. Earthquake debris includes building materials, personal property, and sediment from landslides. The management of this debris, as well as the waste generated during the reconstruction works, can place significant challenges on the national and local capacities. Debris removal is a major component of every post earthquake recovery operation. Much of the debris generated from earthquake is not hazardous. Soil, building material, and green waste, such as trees and shrubs, make up most of the volume of earthquake debris. These wastes not only create significant health problems and a very unpleasant living environment if not disposed of safely and appropriately, but also can subsequently impose economical burdens on the reconstruction phase. In practice, most of the debris may be either disposed of at landfill sites, reused as materials for construction or recycled into useful commodities Therefore, the debris clearance operation should focus on the geotechnical engineering approach as an important post earthquake issue to control the quality of the incoming flow of potential soil materials. In this paper, the importance of an emergency management perspective in this geotechnical approach that takes into account the different criteria related to the operation execution is proposed by highlighting the key issues concerning the handling of the construction

Creating a Global Building Inventory for Earthquake Loss Assessment and Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

2008-01-01

Earthquakes have claimed approximately 8 million lives over the last 2,000 years (Dunbar, Lockridge and others, 1992) and fatality rates are likely to continue to rise with increased population and urbanizations of global settlements especially in developing countries. More than 75% of earthquake-related human casualties are caused by the collapse of buildings or structures (Coburn and Spence, 2002). It is disheartening to note that large fractions of the world's population still reside in informal, poorly-constructed & non-engineered dwellings which have high susceptibility to collapse during earthquakes. Moreover, with increasing urbanization half of world's population now lives in urban areas (United Nations, 2001), and half of these urban centers are located in earthquake-prone regions (Bilham, 2004). The poor performance of most building stocks during earthquakes remains a primary societal concern. However, despite this dark history and bleaker future trends, there are no comprehensive global building inventories of sufficient quality and coverage to adequately address and characterize future earthquake losses. Such an inventory is vital both for earthquake loss mitigation and for earthquake disaster response purposes. While the latter purpose is the motivation of this work, we hope that the global building inventory database described herein will find widespread use for other mitigation efforts as well. For a real-time earthquake impact alert system, such as U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER), (Wald, Earle and others, 2006), we seek to rapidly evaluate potential casualties associated with earthquake ground shaking for any region of the world. The casualty estimation is based primarily on (1) rapid estimation of the ground shaking hazard, (2) aggregating the population exposure within different building types, and (3) estimating the casualties from the collapse of vulnerable buildings. Thus, the

GIS Based System for Post-Earthquake Crisis Managment Using Cellular Network

Science.gov (United States)

Raeesi, M.; Sadeghi-Niaraki, A.

2013-09-01

Earthquakes are among the most destructive natural disasters. Earthquakes happen mainly near the edges of tectonic plates, but they may happen just about anywhere. Earthquakes cannot be predicted. Quick response after disasters, like earthquake, decreases loss of life and costs. Massive earthquakes often cause structures to collapse, trapping victims under dense rubble for long periods of time. After the earthquake and destroyed some areas, several teams are sent to find the location of the destroyed areas. The search and rescue phase usually is maintained for many days. Time reduction for surviving people is very important. A Geographical Information System (GIS) can be used for decreasing response time and management in critical situations. Position estimation in short period of time time is important. This paper proposes a GIS based system for post-earthquake disaster management solution. This system relies on several mobile positioning methods such as cell-ID and TA method, signal strength method, angel of arrival method, time of arrival method and time difference of arrival method. For quick positioning, the system can be helped by any person who has a mobile device. After positioning and specifying the critical points, the points are sent to a central site for managing the procedure of quick response for helping. This solution establishes a quick way to manage the post-earthquake crisis.

GIS BASED SYSTEM FOR POST-EARTHQUAKE CRISIS MANAGMENT USING CELLULAR NETWORK

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M. Raeesi

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Earthquakes are among the most destructive natural disasters. Earthquakes happen mainly near the edges of tectonic plates, but they may happen just about anywhere. Earthquakes cannot be predicted. Quick response after disasters, like earthquake, decreases loss of life and costs. Massive earthquakes often cause structures to collapse, trapping victims under dense rubble for long periods of time. After the earthquake and destroyed some areas, several teams are sent to find the location of the destroyed areas. The search and rescue phase usually is maintained for many days. Time reduction for surviving people is very important. A Geographical Information System (GIS can be used for decreasing response time and management in critical situations. Position estimation in short period of time time is important. This paper proposes a GIS based system for post–earthquake disaster management solution. This system relies on several mobile positioning methods such as cell-ID and TA method, signal strength method, angel of arrival method, time of arrival method and time difference of arrival method. For quick positioning, the system can be helped by any person who has a mobile device. After positioning and specifying the critical points, the points are sent to a central site for managing the procedure of quick response for helping. This solution establishes a quick way to manage the post–earthquake crisis.

Insight into the Earthquake Risk Information Seeking Behavior of the Victims: Evidence from Songyuan, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shasha Li

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Efficient risk communication is a vital way to reduce the vulnerability of individuals when facing emergency risks, especially regarding earthquakes. Efficient risk communication aims at improving the supply of risk information and fulfilling the need for risk information by individuals. Therefore, an investigation into individual-level information seeking behavior within earthquake risk contexts is very important for improved earthquake risk communication. However, at present there are very few studies that have explored the behavior of individuals seeking earthquake risk information. Under the guidance of the Risk Information Seeking and Processing model as well as relevant practical findings using the structural equation model, this study attempts to explore the main determinants of an individual’s earthquake risk information seeking behavior, and to validate the mediator effect of information need during the seeking process. A questionnaire-based survey of 918 valid respondents in Songyuan, China, who had been hit by a small earthquake swarm, was used to provide practical evidence for this study. Results indicated that information need played a noteworthy role in the earthquake risk information seeking process, and was detected both as an immediate predictor and as a mediator. Informational subjective norms drive the seeking behavior on earthquake risk information through both direct and indirect approaches. Perceived information gathering capacity, negative affective responses and risk perception have an indirect effect on earthquake risk information seeking behavior via information need. The implications for theory and practice regarding risk communication are discussed and concluded.

[Trust in organizations concerned with risks of the Great East Japan Earthquake].

Science.gov (United States)

Nakayachi, Kazuya; Kudo, Daisuke; Ozaki, Taku

2014-06-01

This study investigated the levels of public trust in organizations associated with the Great East Japan Earthquake. In Study 1 (N = 639), the levels of trust in eight organizations as well as the determinants of trust--perceived salient value similarity (SVS), ability, and motivation--were measured twice, first immediately after the earthquake and then a year later. The results indicated that the trust levels for six of the eight organizations had been preserved, supporting the double asymmetric effect of trust. The results of structural equation modeling (SEM) revealed that SVS explained trust more when the organization had been less trusted. Trust in the organization explains well the perceived reduction of the target risk. The results of SEM in Study 2 (N = 1,030) replicated those of Study 1, suggesting the stability of the explanatory power of the determinants of trust. Implications of the study for risk management practices are discussed.

It's Our Fault: better defining earthquake risk in Wellington, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Van Dissen, R.; Brackley, H. L.; Francois-Holden, C.

2012-12-01

The Wellington region, home of New Zealand's capital city, is cut by a number of major right-lateral strike slip faults, and is underlain by the currently locked west-dipping subduction interface between the down going Pacific Plate, and the over-riding Australian Plate. In its short historic period (ca. 160 years), the region has been impacted by large earthquakes on the strike-slip faults, but has yet to bear the brunt of a subduction interface rupture directly beneath the capital city. It's Our Fault is a comprehensive study of Wellington's earthquake risk. Its objective is to position the capital city of New Zealand to become more resilient through an encompassing study of the likelihood of large earthquakes, and the effects and impacts of these earthquakes on humans and the built environment. It's Our Fault is jointly funded by New Zealand's Earthquake Commission, Accident Compensation Corporation, Wellington City Council, Wellington Region Emergency Management Group, Greater Wellington Regional Council, and Natural Hazards Research Platform. The programme has been running for six years, and key results to date include better definition and constraints on: 1) location, size, timing, and likelihood of large earthquakes on the active faults closest to Wellington; 2) earthquake size and ground shaking characterization of a representative suite of subduction interface rupture scenarios under Wellington; 3) stress interactions between these faults; 4) geological, geotechnical, and geophysical parameterisation of the near-surface sediments and basin geometry in Wellington City and the Hutt Valley; and 5) characterisation of earthquake ground shaking behaviour in these two urban areas in terms of subsoil classes specified in the NZ Structural Design Standard. The above investigations are already supporting measures aimed at risk reduction, and collectively they will facilitate identification of additional actions that will have the greatest benefit towards further

Building Inventory Database on the Urban Scale Using GIS for Earthquake Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Kaplan, O.; Avdan, U.; Guney, Y.; Helvaci, C.

2016-12-01

The majority of the existing buildings are not safe against earthquakes in most of the developing countries. Before a devastating earthquake, existing buildings need to be assessed and the vulnerable ones must be determined. Determining the seismic performance of existing buildings which is usually made with collecting the attributes of existing buildings, making the analysis and the necessary queries, and producing the result maps is very hard and complicated procedure that can be simplified with Geographic Information System (GIS). The aim of this study is to produce a building inventory database using GIS for assessing the earthquake risk of existing buildings. In this paper, a building inventory database for 310 buildings, located in Eskisehir, Turkey, was produced in order to assess the earthquake risk of the buildings. The results from this study show that 26% of the buildings have high earthquake risk, 33% of the buildings have medium earthquake risk and the 41% of the buildings have low earthquake risk. The produced building inventory database can be very useful especially for governments in dealing with the problem of determining seismically vulnerable buildings in the large existing building stocks. With the help of this kind of methods, determination of the buildings, which may collapse and cause life and property loss during a possible future earthquake, will be very quick, cheap and reliable.

The earthquake/seismic risk, vulnerability and capacity profile for ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The study was carried out to understand the risks posed by earthquakes in Karonga based on roles and perception of stakeholders. Information was collected from several stakeholders who were found responding to earthquakes impacts in Karonga Town. The study found that several stakeholders, governmental and ...

Risk assessment study of fire following earthquake: a case study of petrochemical enterprises in China

Science.gov (United States)

Li, J.; Wang, Y.; Chen, H.; Lin, L.

2013-04-01

After an earthquake, the fire risk of petrochemistry enterprises is higher than that of other enterprises as it involves production processes with inflammable and explosive characteristics. Using Chinese petrochemical enterprises as the research object, this paper uses a literature review and case summaries to study, amongst others, the classification of petrochemical enterprises, the proportion of daily fires, and fire loss ratio. This paper builds a fire following earthquake risk assessment model of petrochemical enterprises based on a previous earthquake fire hazard model, and the earthquake loss prediction assessment method, calculates the expected loss of the fire following earthquake in various counties and draws a risk map. Moreover, this research identifies high-risk areas, concentrating on the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region, and Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces. Differences in enterprise type produce different levels and distribution of petrochemical enterprises earthquake fire risk. Furthermore, areas at high risk of post-earthquake fires and with low levels of seismic fortification require extra attention to ensure appropriate mechanisms are in place.

Measuring the effectiveness of earthquake forecasting in insurance strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Mignan, A.; Muir-Wood, R.

2009-04-01

Given the difficulty of judging whether the skill of a particular methodology of earthquake forecasts is offset by the inevitable false alarms and missed predictions, it is important to find a means to weigh the successes and failures according to a common currency. Rather than judge subjectively the relative costs and benefits of predictions, we develop a simple method to determine if the use of earthquake forecasts can increase the profitability of active financial risk management strategies employed in standard insurance procedures. Three types of risk management transactions are employed: (1) insurance underwriting, (2) reinsurance purchasing and (3) investment in CAT bonds. For each case premiums are collected based on modelled technical risk costs and losses are modelled for the portfolio in force at the time of the earthquake. A set of predetermined actions follow from the announcement of any change in earthquake hazard, so that, for each earthquake forecaster, the financial performance of an active risk management strategy can be compared with the equivalent passive strategy in which no notice is taken of earthquake forecasts. Overall performance can be tracked through time to determine which strategy gives the best long term financial performance. This will be determined by whether the skill in forecasting the location and timing of a significant earthquake (where loss is avoided) is outweighed by false predictions (when no premium is collected). This methodology is to be tested in California, where catastrophe modeling is reasonably mature and where a number of researchers issue earthquake forecasts.

Simulation and monitoring tools to protect disaster management facilities against earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Saito, Taiki

2017-10-01

The earthquakes that hit Kumamoto Prefecture in Japan on April 14 and 16, 2016 severely damaged over 180,000 houses, including over 8,000 that were completely destroyed and others that were partially damaged according to the Cabinet Office's report as of November 14, 2016 [1]. Following these earthquakes, other parts of the world have been struck by earthquakes including Italy and New Zealand as well as the central part of Tottori Prefecture in October, where the earthquake-induced collapse of buildings has led to severe damage and casualties. The earthquakes in Kumamoto Prefecture, in fact, damaged various disaster management facilities including Uto City Hall, which significantly hindered the city's evacuation and recovery operations. One of the most crucial issues in times of disaster is securing the functions of disaster management facilities such as city halls, hospitals and fire stations. To address this issue, seismic simulations are conducted on the East and the West buildings of Toyohashi City Hall using the analysis tool developed by the author, STERA_3D, with the data of the ground motion waveform prediction for the Nankai Trough earthquake provided by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. As the result, it was found that the buildings have sufficient earthquake resistance. It turned out, however, that the west building is at risk for wall cracks or ceiling panel's collapse while in the east building, people would not be able to stand through the strong quakes of 7 on the seismic intensity scale and cabinets not secured to the floors or walls would fall over. Additionally, three IT strong-motion seismometers were installed in the city hall to continuously monitor vibrations. Every five minutes, the vibration data obtained by the seismometers are sent to the computers in Toyohashi University of Technology via the Internet for the analysis tools to run simulations in the cloud. If an earthquake strikes, it is able to use the results

Geoethics and decision science issues in Japan's disaster management system: case study in the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami

Science.gov (United States)

Sugimoto, Megumi

2015-04-01

The March 11, 2011 Tohoku earthquake and its tsunami killed 18,508 people, including the missing (National Police Agency report as of April 2014) and raise the Level 7 accident at TEPCO's Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station in Japan. The problems revealed can be viewed as due to a combination of risk-management, risk-communication, and geoethics issues. Japan's preparations for earthquakes and tsunamis are based on the magnitude of the anticipated earthquake for each region. The government organization coordinating the estimation of anticipated earthquakes is the "Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion" (HERP), which is under the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT). Japan's disaster mitigation system is depicted schematically as consisting of three layers: seismology, civil engineering, and disaster mitigation planning. This research explains students in geoscience should study geoethics as part of their education related Tohoku earthquake and the Level 7 accident at TEPCO's Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station. Only when they become practicing professionals, they will be faced with real geoethical dilemmas. A crisis such as the 2011 earthquake, tsunami, and Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident, will force many geoscientists to suddenly confront previously unanticipated geoethics and risk-communication issues. One hopes that previous training will help them to make appropriate decisions under stress. We name it "decision science".

Change of Japanese risk perception after Tohoku earthquake March 11, 2011

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakajima, Reiko

2011-01-01

The present study reports change of Japanese risk perception based on the results of national surveys carried out in 2010 and 2011. Major earthquake and nuclear power plant risk items were perceived much more serious, while other risks such as global warming, illicit drugs, terrorism were perceiver less serious, after Tohoku earthquake. Anxiety about radiological material was differently according to the distance from the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant. (author)

Communicating Earthquake Preparedness: The Influence of Induced Mood, Perceived Risk, and Gain or Loss Frames on Homeowners' Attitudes Toward General Precautionary Measures for Earthquakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Marti, Michèle; Stauffacher, Michael; Matthes, Jörg; Wiemer, Stefan

2018-04-01

Despite global efforts to reduce seismic risk, actual preparedness levels remain universally low. Although earthquake-resistant building design is the most efficient way to decrease potential losses, its application is not a legal requirement across all earthquake-prone countries and even if, often not strictly enforced. Risk communication encouraging homeowners to take precautionary measures is therefore an important means to enhance a country's earthquake resilience. Our study illustrates that specific interactions of mood, perceived risk, and frame type significantly affect homeowners' attitudes toward general precautionary measures for earthquakes. The interdependencies of the variables mood, risk information, and frame type were tested in an experimental 2 × 2 × 2 design (N = 156). Only in combination and not on their own, these variables effectively influence attitudes toward general precautionary measures for earthquakes. The control variables gender, "trait anxiety" index, and alteration of perceived risk adjust the effect. Overall, the group with the strongest attitudes toward general precautionary actions for earthquakes are homeowners with induced negative mood who process high-risk information and gain-framed messages. However, the conditions comprising induced negative mood, low-risk information and loss-frame and induced positive mood, low-risk information and gain-framed messages both also significantly influence homeowners' attitudes toward general precautionary measures for earthquakes. These results mostly confirm previous findings in the field of health communication. For practitioners, our study emphasizes that carefully compiled communication measures are a powerful means to encourage precautionary attitudes among homeowners, especially for those with an elevated perceived risk. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Earthquakes in the kindergarten educate for risk mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Mata, Isabel; Rodrigues, Isabel; Matias, Luis

2016-04-01

"Earthquakes in the kindergarten educate for risk mitigation" Isabel Rodrigues, Jardim de Infância D. Dinis, Odivelas, Isabel Mata, Secondary School Adelaide Cabette, Odivelas Luis Matias (UL / IDL), Instituto Dom Luiz, Universityof Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal In Portugal Education for risk is now recognized as a child training component and young learners should develop the right skills in the first years of life. School can have an important role in this process, as a privileged actor in the mobilization of every society, providing and promoting dynamic and educational practices aimed at the wider spectrum of education for citizenship, the adoption of safety behaviours, prevention and adequate management of risk. The Group of Schools Adelaide Cabette in Odivelas is now a set of schools, from Kindergarten to Secondary. Aiming at educating for risk prevention, we developed an experiment with a pre-school class directed to the seismic risk, which was extended to Earth Sciences because it is difficult to teach this topic to the youngest learners, either from Kindergarten or from Primary School, as they haven't learned enough about planet Earth (many don't even know that it is not flat but round like a ball). This experiment involved a working project 1, which was initially developed in one of the classrooms, in kindergarten D. Dinis, and many questions have been asked by the students. The explanation for the students' questions gave origin to a set of experiences developed in the Secondary school. The same class concluded the project in their own classroom. In this project the young learners could have contact with pre-school teachers, secondary and university researchers, thus promoting the sharing of different knowledge, including the scientific linked to the educational one. We would like to share our poster summarizing our experience which we feltwas not only a great challenge, but also a rewarding way to disseminate science to the youngest learners. 1. Keywords

The Global Earthquake Model and Disaster Risk Reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Smolka, A. J.

2015-12-01

Advanced, reliable and transparent tools and data to assess earthquake risk are inaccessible to most, especially in less developed regions of the world while few, if any, globally accepted standards currently allow a meaningful comparison of risk between places. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a collaborative effort that aims to provide models, datasets and state-of-the-art tools for transparent assessment of earthquake hazard and risk. As part of this goal, GEM and its global network of collaborators have developed the OpenQuake engine (an open-source software for hazard and risk calculations), the OpenQuake platform (a web-based portal making GEM's resources and datasets freely available to all potential users), and a suite of tools to support modelers and other experts in the development of hazard, exposure and vulnerability models. These resources are being used extensively across the world in hazard and risk assessment, from individual practitioners to local and national institutions, and in regional projects to inform disaster risk reduction. Practical examples for how GEM is bridging the gap between science and disaster risk reduction are: - Several countries including Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, Ecuador, Papua-New Guinea and Taiwan (with more to follow) are computing national seismic hazard using the OpenQuake-engine. In some cases these results are used for the definition of actions in building codes. - Technical support, tools and data for the development of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk models for regional projects in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. - Going beyond physical risk, GEM's scorecard approach evaluates local resilience by bringing together neighborhood/community leaders and the risk reduction community as a basis for designing risk reduction programs at various levels of geography. Actual case studies are Lalitpur in the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal and Quito/Ecuador. In agreement with GEM's collaborative approach, all

Overview of the critical disaster management challenges faced during Van 2011 earthquakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Tolon, Mert; Yazgan, Ufuk; Ural, Derin N; Goss, Kay C

2014-01-01

On October 23, 2011, a M7.2 earthquake caused damage in a widespread area in the Van province located in eastern Turkey. This strong earthquake was followed by a M5.7 earthquake on November 9, 2011. This sequence of damaging earthquakes led to 644 fatalities. The management during and after these earthquake disaster imposed many critical challenges. In this article, an overview of these challenges is presented based on the observations by the authors in the aftermath of this disaster. This article presents the characteristics of 2011 Van earthquakes. Afterward, the key information related to the four main phases (ie, preparedness, mitigation, response, and recovery) of the disaster in Van is presented. The potential strategies that can be taken to improve the disaster management practice are identified, and a set of recommendations are proposed to improve the existing situation.

Risk assessment study of fire following an earthquake: a case study of petrochemical enterprises in China

Science.gov (United States)

Li, J.; Wang, Y.; Chen, H.; Lin, L.

2014-04-01

After an earthquake, the fire risk of petrochemical enterprises is higher than that of other enterprises as it involves production processes with inflammable and explosive characteristics. Using Chinese petrochemical enterprises as the research object, this paper uses a literature review and case summaries to study, amongst others, the classification of petrochemical enterprises, the proportion of daily fires, and fire loss ratio. This paper builds a fire following an earthquake risk assessment model of petrochemical enterprises based on a previous earthquake fire hazard model, and the earthquake loss prediction assessment method, calculates the expected loss of the fire following an earthquake in various counties and draws a risk map. Moreover, this research identifies high-risk areas, concentrating on the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region, and Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces. Differences in enterprise type produce different levels and distribution of petrochemical enterprise earthquake fire risk. Furthermore, areas at high risk of post-earthquake fires and with low levels of seismic fortification require extra attention to ensure appropriate mechanisms are in place.

Earthquake Hazard Analysis Methods: A Review

Science.gov (United States)

Sari, A. M.; Fakhrurrozi, A.

2018-02-01

One of natural disasters that have significantly impacted on risks and damage is an earthquake. World countries such as China, Japan, and Indonesia are countries located on the active movement of continental plates with more frequent earthquake occurrence compared to other countries. Several methods of earthquake hazard analysis have been done, for example by analyzing seismic zone and earthquake hazard micro-zonation, by using Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (N-DSHA) method, and by using Remote Sensing. In its application, it is necessary to review the effectiveness of each technique in advance. Considering the efficiency of time and the accuracy of data, remote sensing is used as a reference to the assess earthquake hazard accurately and quickly as it only takes a limited time required in the right decision-making shortly after the disaster. Exposed areas and possibly vulnerable areas due to earthquake hazards can be easily analyzed using remote sensing. Technological developments in remote sensing such as GeoEye-1 provide added value and excellence in the use of remote sensing as one of the methods in the assessment of earthquake risk and damage. Furthermore, the use of this technique is expected to be considered in designing policies for disaster management in particular and can reduce the risk of natural disasters such as earthquakes in Indonesia.

Decision making biases in the communication of earthquake risk

Science.gov (United States)

Welsh, M. B.; Steacy, S.; Begg, S. H.; Navarro, D. J.

2015-12-01

L'Aquila, with 6 scientists convicted of manslaughter, shocked the scientific community, leading to urgent re-appraisal of communication methods for low-probability, high-impact events. Before the trial, a commission investigating the earthquake recommended risk assessment be formalised via operational earthquake forecasts and that social scientists be enlisted to assist in developing communication strategies. Psychological research has identified numerous decision biases relevant to this, including hindsight bias, where people (after the fact) overestimate an event's predictability. This affects experts as well as naïve participants as it relates to their ability to construct a plausible causal story rather than the likelihood of the event. Another problem is availability, which causes overestimation of the likelihood of observed rare events due to their greater noteworthiness. This, however, is complicated by the 'description-experience' gap, whereby people underestimate probabilities for events they have not experienced. That is, people who have experienced strong earthquakes judge them more likely while those who have not judge them less likely - relative to actual probabilities. Finally, format changes alter people's decisions. That is people treat '1 in 10,000' as different from 0.01% despite their mathematical equivalence. Such effects fall under the broad term framing, which describes how different framings of the same event alter decisions. In particular, people's attitude to risk depends significantly on how scenarios are described. We examine the effect of biases on the communication of change in risk. South Australian participants gave responses to scenarios describing familiar (bushfire) or unfamiliar (earthquake) risks. While bushfires are rare in specific locations, significant fire events occur each year and are extensively covered. By comparison, our study location (Adelaide) last had a M5 quake in 1954. Preliminary results suggest the description

Global risk of big earthquakes has not recently increased.

Science.gov (United States)

Shearer, Peter M; Stark, Philip B

2012-01-17

The recent elevated rate of large earthquakes has fueled concern that the underlying global rate of earthquake activity has increased, which would have important implications for assessments of seismic hazard and our understanding of how faults interact. We examine the timing of large (magnitude M≥7) earthquakes from 1900 to the present, after removing local clustering related to aftershocks. The global rate of M≥8 earthquakes has been at a record high roughly since 2004, but rates have been almost as high before, and the rate of smaller earthquakes is close to its historical average. Some features of the global catalog are improbable in retrospect, but so are some features of most random sequences--if the features are selected after looking at the data. For a variety of magnitude cutoffs and three statistical tests, the global catalog, with local clusters removed, is not distinguishable from a homogeneous Poisson process. Moreover, no plausible physical mechanism predicts real changes in the underlying global rate of large events. Together these facts suggest that the global risk of large earthquakes is no higher today than it has been in the past.

Brief communication "Fast-track earthquake risk assessment for selected urban areas in Turkey"

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Kepekci

2011-02-01

Full Text Available This study is presented as a contribution to earthquake disaster mitigation studies for selected cities in Turkey. The risk evaluations must be based on earthquake hazard analysis and city information. To estimate the ground motion level, data for earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 4.5 and an epicenter location within a 100-km radius of each city were used for the period from 1900 to 2006, as recorded at the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for each city was carried out using Poisson probabilistic approaches. Ground motion level was estimated as the probability of a given degree of acceleration with a 10% exceedence rate during a 50-year time period for each city. The risk level of each city was evaluated using the number of houses, the per-capita income of city residents, population, and ground motion levels. The maximum risk level obtained for the cities was taken as a reference value for relative risk assessment, and other risk values were estimated relative to the maximum risk level. When the selected cities were classified according to their relative risk levels, the five most risky cities were found to be, in descending order of risk, Istanbul, Izmir, Ankara, Bursa, and Kocaeli.

Martin Marietta Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant comprehensive earthquake emergency management program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-01-01

Recognizing the value of a proactive, integrated approach to earthquake preparedness planning, Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc. initiated a contract in June 1989 with Murray State University, Murray, Kentucky, to develop a comprehensive earthquake management program for their Gaseous Diffusion Plant in Paducah, Kentucky. The overall purpose of the program is to mitigate the loss of life and property in the event of a major destructive earthquake. The program includes four distinct (yet integrated) components: an emergency management plan, with emphasis on the catastrophic earthquake; an Emergency Operations Center Duty Roster Manual; an Integrated Automated Emergency Management Information System (IAEMIS); and a series of five training program modules. The PLAN itself is comprised of four separate volumes: Volume I -- Chapters 1--3; Volume II -- Chapters 4--6, Volume III -- Chapter 7, and Volume IV -- 23 Appendices. The EOC Manual (which includes 15 mutual aid agreements) is designated as Chapter 7 in the PLAN and is a ''stand alone'' document numbered as Volume III. This document, Volume I, provides an introduction, summary and recommendations, and the emergency operations center direction and control

Martin Marietta Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant comprehensive earthquake emergency management program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-01-01

Recognizing the value of a proactive, integrated approach to earthquake preparedness planning, Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc. initiated a contract in June 1989 with Murray State University, Murray, Kentucky, to develop a comprehensive earthquake management program for their Gaseous Diffusion Plant in Paducah, Kentucky (PGDP -- Subcontract No. 19P-JV649V). The overall purpose of the program is to mitigate the loss of life and property in the event of a major destructive earthquake. The program includes four distinct (yet integrated) components: (1) an emergency management plan with emphasis on the catas trophic earthquake; (2) an Emergency Operations Center Duty Roster Manual; (3) an Integrated Automated Emergency Management Information System (IAEMIS); and (4) a series of five training program modules. The PLAN itself is comprised of four separate volumes: Volume I -- Chapters 1--3; Volume II -- Chapters 4--6; Volume III -- Chapter 7; and Volume IV -- 23 Appendices. The EOC Manual (which includes 15 mutual aid agreements) is designated as Chapter 7 in the PLAN and is this document numbered as Volume III

Social and ethical issues in environmental risk management.

Science.gov (United States)

Oughton, Deborah H

2011-07-01

The recognition of the social and ethical aspects of radiation risk management has been an important part of international projects following the Chernobyl accident of 1986. This study comments on the science and policy issues in environmental risk assessment, including the social and ethical dimensions of emergency preparedness and remediation experiences gained from the Chernobyl accident. While the unique situation of Fukushima, combined with an earthquake and tsunami, raises its own social and political challenges, it is hoped that some of the lessons learnt from Chernobyl will be relevant to long-term management of the Fukushima site. Copyright © 2011 SETAC.

GEM - The Global Earthquake Model

Science.gov (United States)

Smolka, A.

2009-04-01

Over 500,000 people died in the last decade due to earthquakes and tsunamis, mostly in the developing world, where the risk is increasing due to rapid population growth. In many seismic regions, no hazard and risk models exist, and even where models do exist, they are intelligible only by experts, or available only for commercial purposes. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) answers the need for an openly accessible risk management tool. GEM is an internationally sanctioned public private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) which will establish an authoritative standard for calculating and communicating earthquake hazard and risk, and will be designed to serve as the critical instrument to support decisions and actions that reduce earthquake losses worldwide. GEM will integrate developments on the forefront of scientific and engineering knowledge of earthquakes, at global, regional and local scale. The work is organized in three modules: hazard, risk, and socio-economic impact. The hazard module calculates probabilities of earthquake occurrence and resulting shaking at any given location. The risk module calculates fatalities, injuries, and damage based on expected shaking, building vulnerability, and the distribution of population and of exposed values and facilities. The socio-economic impact module delivers tools for making educated decisions to mitigate and manage risk. GEM will be a versatile online tool, with open source code and a map-based graphical interface. The underlying data will be open wherever possible, and its modular input and output will be adapted to multiple user groups: scientists and engineers, risk managers and decision makers in the public and private sectors, and the public-at- large. GEM will be the first global model for seismic risk assessment at a national and regional scale, and aims to achieve broad scientific participation and independence. Its development will occur in a

Martin Marietta Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant comprehensive earthquake emergency management program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-01-01

Recognizing the value of a proactive, integrated approach to earthquake preparedness planning, Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc. initiated a contract in June 1989 with Murray State University, Murray, Kentucky, to develop a comprehensive earthquake management program for their Gaseous Diffusion Plant in Paducah, Kentucky (PGDP -- Subcontract No. 19P-JV649V). The overall purpose of the program is to mitigate the loss of life and property in the event of a major destructive earthquake. The program includes four distinct (yet integrated) components: an emergency management plan, with emphasis on the catastrophic earthquake; an Emergency Operations Center Duty Roster Manual; an Integrated Automated Emergency Management Information System (IAEMIS); and a series of five training program modules. The PLAN itself is comprised of four separate volumes: Volume I -- Chapters 1--3; Volume II -- Chapters 4--6, Volume III -- Chapter 7, and Volume IV -- 23 Appendices. The EOC Manual (which includes 15 mutual aid agreements) is designated as Chapter 7 in the PLAN and is a ''stand alone'' document numbered as Volume III. This document, Volume II, discusses methodology, engineering and environmental analyses, and operational procedures

Martin Marietta Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant comprehensive earthquake emergency management program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-01-01

Recognizing the value of a proactive, integrated approach to earthquake preparedness planning, Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc, initiated a contract in June 1989 with Murray State University, Murray, Kentucky, to develop a comprehensive earthquake management program for their Gaseous Diffusion Plant in Paducah, Kentucky (PGDP--Subcontract No. 19P-JV649V). The overall purpose of the program is to mitigate the loss of life and property in the event of a major destructive earthquake. The program includes four distinct (yet integrated) components: (1) an emergency management plan, with emphasis on the catas trophic earthquake, (2) an Emergency Operations Center Duty Roster Manual, (3) an Integrated Automated Emergency Management Information System (IAEMIS), and (4) a series of five training program modules. The PLAN itself is comprised of four separate volumes: Volume I--Chapters 1--3; Volume II--Chapters 4--6, Volume III--Chapter 7, and Volume IV--23 Appendices. The EOC Manual (which includes 15 mutual aid agreements) is designated as Chapter 7 in the PLAN and is a ''stand alone'' document numbered as Volume III. This document, Volume IV contains the appendices to this report

A risk-mitigation approach to the management of induced seismicity

Science.gov (United States)

Bommer, Julian J.; Crowley, Helen; Pinho, Rui

2015-04-01

Earthquakes may be induced by a wide range of anthropogenic activities such as mining, fluid injection and extraction, and hydraulic fracturing. In recent years, the increased occurrence of induced seismicity and the impact of some of these earthquakes on the built environment have heightened both public concern and regulatory scrutiny, motivating the need for a framework for the management of induced seismicity. Efforts to develop systems to enable control of seismicity have not yet resulted in solutions that can be applied with confidence in most cases. The more rational approach proposed herein is based on applying the same risk quantification and mitigation measures that are applied to the hazard from natural seismicity. This framework allows informed decision-making regarding the conduct of anthropogenic activities that may cause earthquakes. The consequent risk, if related to non-structural damage (when re-location is not an option), can be addressed by appropriate financial compensation. If the risk poses a threat to life and limb, then it may be reduced through the application of strengthening measures in the built environment—the cost of which can be balanced against the economic benefits of the activity in question—rather than attempting to ensure that some threshold on earthquake magnitude or ground-shaking amplitude is not exceeded. However, because of the specific characteristics of induced earthquakes—which may occur in regions with little or no natural seismicity—the procedures used in standard earthquake engineering need adaptation and modification for application to induced seismicity.

Megacity Indicator System for Disaster Risk Management in Istanbul (MegaIST)

Science.gov (United States)

Yahya Menteşe, Emin; Kılıç, Osman; Baş, Mahmut; Khazai, Bijan; Ergün Konukcu, Betul; Emre Basmacı, Ahmet

2017-04-01

Decision makers need tools to understand the priorities and to set up benchmarks and track progress in their disaster risk reduction activities, so that they can justify their decisions and investments. In this regard, Megacity Indicator System for Disaster Risk Management (MegaIST), is developed in order to be used in disaster risk management studies, for decision makers and managers to establish right strategies and proper risk reduction actions, enhance resource management and investment decisions, set priorities, monitor progress in DRM and validate decisions taken with the aim of helping disaster oriented urban redevelopment, inform investors about risk profile of the city and providing a basis for dissemination and sharing of risk components with related stakeholders; by Directorate of Earthquake and Ground Research of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM). MegaIST achieves these goals by analyzing the earthquake risk in three separate but complementary sub-categories consisting of "urban seismic risk, coping capacity and disaster risk management index" in an integrated way. MegaIST model fosters its analyses by presenting the outputs in a simple and user friendly format benefiting from GIS technology that ensures the adoptability of the model's use. Urban seismic risk analysis includes two components, namely; Physical Risk and Social Vulnerability Analysis. Physical risk analysis is based on the possible physical losses (such as building damage, casualties etc.) due to an earthquake while social vulnerability is considered as a factor that increases the results of the physical losses in correlation with the level of education, health, economic status and disaster awareness/preparedness of society. Coping capacity analysis is carried out with the aim of understanding the readiness of the Municipality to respond and recover from a disaster in Istanbul can be defined both in terms of the Municipality's operational capacities - the capacity of the

Disaster Management System as an Element of Risk Management for Natural Disaster Systems Using the PESTLE Framework

OpenAIRE

Sarwar, D; Ramachandran, M; Hosseinian Far, A

2017-01-01

Recently, we have witnessed so many natural catastrophes such as earthquakes in Japan, severe floods in the UK, US and many other parts of the world. Consequently businesses have been losing tens of billions of dollars as a result of various natural and man-made disasters. Disaster Management System (DMS) have proven to be important means for reducing risks associated with such damages to businesses. A DMS can minimize and in some cases, eliminates the risks through technical, management or o...

An investigation into the socioeconomic aspects of two major earthquakes in Iran.

Science.gov (United States)

Amini Hosseini, Kambod; Hosseinioon, Solmaz; Pooyan, Zhila

2013-07-01

An evaluation of the socioeconomic consequences of earthquakes is an essential part of the development of risk reduction and disaster management plans. However, these variables are not normally addressed sufficiently after strong earthquakes; researchers and relevant stakeholders focus primarily on the physical damage and casualties. The importance of the socioeconomic consequences of seismic events became clearer in Iran after the Bam earthquake on 26 December 2003, as demonstrated by the formulation and approval of various laws and ordinances. This paper reviews the country's regulatory framework in the light of the socioeconomic aspects of two major and destructive earthquakes: in Manjil-Rudbar in 1990, and in Bam in 2003. The results take the form of recommendations and practical strategies for incorporating the socioeconomic dimensions of earthquakes in disaster risk management planning. The results presented here can be applied in other countries with similar conditions to those of Iran in order to improve public preparedness and risk reduction. © 2013 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2013.

Geoethical suggestions for reducing risk of next (not only strong) earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Nemec, Vaclav

2013-04-01

Three relatively recent examples of earthquakes can be used as a background for suggesting geoethical views into any prediction accompanied by a risk analysis. ĹAquila earthquake (Italy - 2009): ĹAquila was largely destroyed by earthquakes in 1315, 1319, 1452, 1461, 1501, 1646, 1703 (until that time altogether about 3000 victims) and 1786 (about 6000 victims of this event only). The city was rebuilt and remained stable until October 2008, when tremors began again. From January 1 through April 5, 2009, additional 304 tremors were reported. When after measuring increased levels of radon emitted from the ground a local citizen (for many years working for the Italian National Institute of Astrophysics) predicted a major earthquake on Italian television, he was accused of being alarmist. Italy's National Commission for Prediction and Prevention of Major Risks met in L'Aquila for one hour on March 31, 2009, without really evaluating and characterising the risks that were present. On April 6 a 6.3 magnitude earthquake struck Aquila and nearby towns, killing 309 people and injuring more than 1,500. The quake also destroyed roughly 20,000 buildings, temporarily displacing another 65,000 people. In July 2010, prosecutor Fabio Picuti charged the Commission members with manslaughter and negligence for failing to warn the public of the impending risk. Many international organizations joined the chorus of criticism wrongly interpreting the accusation and sentence at the first stage as a problem of impossibility to predict earthquakes. - The Eyjafjallajokull volcano eruption (Iceland - 2010) is a reminder that in our globalized, interconnected world because of the increased sensibility of the new technology even a relatively small natural disaster may cause unexpected range of problems. - Earthquake and tsunami (Japan - 2011) - the most powerful known earthquake ever to have hit Japan on March 11. Whereas the proper earthquake with the magnitude of 9.0 has caused minimum of

Food, water, and fault lines: Remote sensing opportunities for earthquake-response management of agricultural water

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodriguez, Jenna; Ustin, Susan; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel; O'Geen, Anthony Toby

2016-01-01

Earthquakes often cause destructive and unpredictable changes that can affect local hydrology (e.g. groundwater elevation or reduction) and thus disrupt land uses and human activities. Prolific agricultural regions overlie seismically active areas, emphasizing the importance to improve our understanding and monitoring of hydrologic and agricultural systems following a seismic event. A thorough data collection is necessary for adequate post-earthquake crop management response; however, the large spatial extent of earthquake's impact makes challenging the collection of robust data sets for identifying locations and magnitude of these impacts. Observing hydrologic responses to earthquakes is not a novel concept, yet there is a lack of methods and tools for assessing earthquake's impacts upon the regional hydrology and agricultural systems. The objective of this paper is to describe how remote sensing imagery, methods and tools allow detecting crop responses and damage incurred after earthquakes because a change in the regional hydrology. Many remote sensing datasets are long archived with extensive coverage and with well-documented methods to assess plant-water relations. We thus connect remote sensing of plant water relations to its utility in agriculture using a post-earthquake agrohydrologic remote sensing (PEARS) framework; specifically in agro-hydrologic relationships associated with recent earthquake events that will lead to improved water management. - Highlights: • Remote sensing to improve agricultural disaster management • Introduce post-earthquake agrohydrologic remote sensing (PEARS) framework • Apply PEARS framework to 2010 Maule Earthquake in Central Chile

Food, water, and fault lines: Remote sensing opportunities for earthquake-response management of agricultural water

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rodriguez, Jenna, E-mail: jmmartin@ucdavis.edu; Ustin, Susan; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel; O' Geen, Anthony Toby

2016-09-15

Earthquakes often cause destructive and unpredictable changes that can affect local hydrology (e.g. groundwater elevation or reduction) and thus disrupt land uses and human activities. Prolific agricultural regions overlie seismically active areas, emphasizing the importance to improve our understanding and monitoring of hydrologic and agricultural systems following a seismic event. A thorough data collection is necessary for adequate post-earthquake crop management response; however, the large spatial extent of earthquake's impact makes challenging the collection of robust data sets for identifying locations and magnitude of these impacts. Observing hydrologic responses to earthquakes is not a novel concept, yet there is a lack of methods and tools for assessing earthquake's impacts upon the regional hydrology and agricultural systems. The objective of this paper is to describe how remote sensing imagery, methods and tools allow detecting crop responses and damage incurred after earthquakes because a change in the regional hydrology. Many remote sensing datasets are long archived with extensive coverage and with well-documented methods to assess plant-water relations. We thus connect remote sensing of plant water relations to its utility in agriculture using a post-earthquake agrohydrologic remote sensing (PEARS) framework; specifically in agro-hydrologic relationships associated with recent earthquake events that will lead to improved water management. - Highlights: • Remote sensing to improve agricultural disaster management • Introduce post-earthquake agrohydrologic remote sensing (PEARS) framework • Apply PEARS framework to 2010 Maule Earthquake in Central Chile.

Risk factors of suicidal ideation among adolescents after Wenchuan earthquake in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Ran, Mao-Sheng; Zhang, Zhen; Fan, Mei; Li, Rong-Hui; Li, Yuan-Hao; Ou, Guo Jing; Jiang, Zhe; Tong, Yu-Zhen; Fang, Ding-Zhi

2015-02-01

Suicidal ideation is a common phenomenon in survivors after disaster event. To identify the change of suicidal ideation, and to test hypotheses concerning the suicidal ideation, depression and PTSD symptoms among adolescent survivors after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China. The suicidal ideation among high school students at 6, 12 and 18 months after the Wenchuan earthquake were investigated. Subjects included 737 student survivors in an affected high school. The PTSD Checklist-Civilian Version (PCL-C) and the Chinese Beck Depression Inventory (C-BDI) were used to measure the symptoms of PTSD and depression. The rates of suicidal ideation among the adolescent survivors at 6-, 12- and 18-month after the earthquake were 35.6%, 35.6% and 30.7% respectively. Depression symptoms in the 18-month follow-up, suicidal ideations at 6 and 12 months after the earthquake were the independent risk factors of suicidal ideation in the 18-month follow-up. Depression symptoms were the strongest predictor of suicidal ideation after earthquake. An increased rate of suicidal ideation after the earthquake may be mainly due to depression but not to PTSD symptoms. The disaster-related psychological sequelae and the risk factors of suicidal ideation, especially depression symptoms, should be considered in the mental health services and suicide prevention. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Safety (management and technology). Reality of anti-earthquake measures in chemical plants; Anzen (manejimento to tekunoroji). Kagaku kojo no jishin taisaku no jissai

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wataya, I. [Asahi Chemical Industry Co. Ltd., Osaka (Japan)

1994-08-05

In Japan where there have been occurring many earthquakes, anti-earthquake measures is one of important things that corporations should take as risk management. In particular, in the chemical industry where a large amount of combustible materials, toxic materials and high-pressure gases are used which has high potential hazard, it is its social responsibility to prevent leakage, fires and explosions of those materials due to earthquakes, and to take in advance measures for minimizing damages if they happen. This paper introduces, as actual anti-earthquake measures, mainly the anti-earthquake measures for facilities and equipment and the plans of prevention of disasters by earthquake of the Kawasaki Plant of Asahi Kasei Co., Ltd. The points in anti-earthquake design are to determine design idea and anti-earthquake design standards based on the investigations into the locational conditions of plants, the evaluation of plant safety and estimation of damage at the time of earthquake; and to adopt a fail safe mechanism for operating a plant on the safe side in the event of earthquake in its design. 2 refs., 1 fig.

Rural Households’ Livelihood Capital, Risk Perception, and Willingness to Purchase Earthquake Disaster Insurance: Evidence from Southwestern China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dingde Xu

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Earthquake disaster insurance can effectively reduce the impact of earthquake disasters on rural households. Exploring rural households’ willingness to purchase earthquake disaster insurance in earthquake disaster areas provides an understanding of the motivations underlying the implementation of an insurance policy. However, few studies have examined the perspectives of rural households, in order to explore the correlations between the rural households’ livelihood capital, their disaster risk perception, and their willingness to purchase earthquake disaster insurance. A cross-sectional survey data including 241 rural households from the most severe disaster counties (cities during the 5 • 12 Wenchuan earthquake was examined with regard to rural households’ livelihood and disaster risk perception, and ordinal logistic regression models were constructed to explore rural households’ willingness to purchase earthquake disaster insurance, as well as the driving mechanism behind this willingness. The results showed that 34.44% of rural households were very willing to purchase earthquake disaster insurance, and 7.05% of rural households were very reluctant to purchase earthquake insurance. Rural households’ livelihood capital and risk perceptions were the most important factors affecting their willingness to purchase earthquake disaster insurance. Rural households with higher scores on natural capital, physical capital, possibility, and worry were more likely to purchase earthquake disaster insurance. Specifically, keeping all other variables constant, every one unit increase in nature capital and physical capital corresponded to an increase in the odds of willingness to purchase earthquake disaster insurance by a factor of 0.14 and 0.06, respectively; every one unit increase in possibility and worry corresponded to an increase in the odds of willingness to purchase earthquake disaster insurance by a factor of 0.03 and 0.04, respectively

The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

2017-04-24

The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Hayward Fault. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities calculated that there is a 33-percent likelihood of a large (magnitude 6.7 or greater) earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault within three decades. A large Hayward Fault earthquake will produce strong ground shaking, permanent displacement of the Earth’s surface, landslides, liquefaction (soils becoming liquid-like during shaking), and subsequent fault slip, known as afterslip, and earthquakes, known as aftershocks. The most recent large earthquake on the Hayward Fault occurred on October 21, 1868, and it ruptured the southern part of the fault. The 1868 magnitude-6.8 earthquake occurred when the San Francisco Bay region had far fewer people, buildings, and infrastructure (roads, communication lines, and utilities) than it does today, yet the strong ground shaking from the earthquake still caused significant building damage and loss of life. The next large Hayward Fault earthquake is anticipated to affect thousands of structures and disrupt the lives of millions of people. Earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region has been greatly reduced as a result of previous concerted efforts; for example, tens of billions of dollars of investment in strengthening infrastructure was motivated in large part by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. To build on efforts to reduce earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region, the HayWired earthquake scenario comprehensively examines the earthquake hazards to help provide the crucial scientific information that the San Francisco Bay region can use to prepare for the next large earthquake, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards volume describes the strong ground shaking modeled in the scenario and the hazardous movements of

Uniform risk functionals for characterization of strong earthquake ground motions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anderson, J.G.; Trifunac, M.D.

1978-01-01

A uniform risk functional (e.g., Fourier spectrum, response spectrum, duration, etc.) is defined so that the probability that it is exceeded by some earthquake during a selected period of time is independent of the frequency of seismic waves. Such a functional is derived by an independent calculation, at each frequency, for the probability that the quantity being considered will be exceeded. Different aspects of the seismicity can control the amplitude of a uniform risk functional in different frequency ranges, and a uniform risk functional does not necessarily describe the strong shaking from any single earthquake. To be useful for calculating uniform risk functionals, a scaling relationship must provide an independent estimate of amplitudes of the functional in several frequency bands. The scaling relationship of Trifunac (1976) for Fourier spectra satisfies this requirement and further describes the distribution of spectral amplitudes about the mean trend; here, it is applied to find uniform risk Fourier amplitude spectra. In an application to finding the uniform risk spectra at a realistic site, this method is quite sensitive to the description of seismicity. Distinct models of seismicity, all consistent with our current level of knowledge of an area, can give significantly different risk estimates

Isolating social influences on vulnerability to earthquake shaking: identifying cost-effective mitigation strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Bhloscaidh, Mairead Nic; McCloskey, John; Pelling, Mark; Naylor, Mark

2013-04-01

Until expensive engineering solutions become more universally available, the objective targeting of resources at demonstrably effective, low-cost interventions might help reverse the trend of increasing mortality in earthquakes. Death tolls in earthquakes are the result of complex interactions between physical effects, such as the exposure of the population to strong shaking, and the resilience of the exposed population along with supporting critical infrastructures and institutions. The identification of socio-economic factors that contribute to earthquake mortality is crucial to identifying and developing successful risk management strategies. Here we develop a quantitative methodology more objectively to assess the ability of communities to withstand earthquake shaking, focusing on, in particular, those cases where risk management performance appears to exceed or fall below expectations based on economic status. Using only published estimates of the shaking intensity and population exposure for each earthquake, data that is available for earthquakes in countries irrespective of their level of economic development, we develop a model for mortality based on the contribution of population exposure to shaking only. This represents an attempt to remove, as far as possible, the physical causes of mortality from our analysis (where we consider earthquake engineering to reduce building collapse among the socio-economic influences). The systematic part of the variance with respect to this model can therefore be expected to be dominated by socio-economic factors. We find, as expected, that this purely physical analysis partitions countries in terms of basic socio-economic measures, for example GDP, focusing analytical attention on the power of economic measures to explain variance in observed distributions of earthquake risk. The model allows the definition of a vulnerability index which, although broadly it demonstrates the expected income-dependence of vulnerability to

Uniform risk spectra of strong earthquake ground motion: NEQRISK

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, V.W.; Trifunac, M.D.

1987-01-01

The concept of uniform risk spectra of Anderson and Trifunac (1977) has been generalized to include (1) more refined description of earthquake source zones, (2) the uncertainties in estimating seismicity parameters a and b in log 10 N = a - bM, (3) to consider uncertainties in estimation of maximum earthquake size in each source zone, and to (4) include the most recent results on empirical scaling of strong motion amplitudes at a site. Examples of using to new NEQRISK program are presented and compared with the corresponding case studies of Anderson and Trifunac (1977). The organization of the computer program NEQRISK is also briefly described

Connecting Hazard Analysts and Risk Managers to Sensor Information.

Science.gov (United States)

Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Hosford, Steven; Douglas, John; Serrano, Jean-Jacques; Coraboeuf, Damien; Comte, Jérémie

2008-06-11

Hazard analysts and risk managers of natural perils, such as earthquakes, landslides and floods, need to access information from sensor networks surveying their regions of interest. However, currently information about these networks is difficult to obtain and is available in varying formats, thereby restricting accesses and consequently possibly leading to decision-making based on limited information. As a response to this issue, state-of-the-art interoperable catalogues are being currently developed within the framework of the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) workplan. This article provides an overview of the prototype catalogue that was developed to improve access to information about the sensor networks surveying geological hazards (geohazards), such as earthquakes, landslides and volcanoes.

The Relationship between Knowledge and Attitude of Managers with Preparedness of Healthcare Centers in Rey Health Network against Earthquake Risk - 2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Asadzadeh

2014-06-01

Conclusions: Considering that managers’ knowledge was rather low, preparedness among centers was low as well. According to low knowledge and unsuitable preparedness, more theoretical and practical trainings and maneuvers were necessary to be held for managers about earthquake preparedness.

Definition of a short-cut methodology for assessing earthquake-related Na-Tech risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Busini, Valentina; Marzo, Enrico; Callioni, Andrea; Rota, Renato

2011-01-01

Highlights: → In industrial sites located in natural hazard-prone areas technological accidents may be triggered by natural events, generating the so-called Na-Tech accidents. → In this paper, a qualitative screening methodology for assessing the earthquake Na-Tech risk has been developed with the aim of identifying which situations deserve a much more expensive Quantitative Risk Analysis. → The simple procedure developed, which summarizes in a suitable Key Hazard Indicator the Na-Tech risk level, has been validated by comparing its results with those of some Quantitative Risk Analyses involving also Na-Tech events and previously presented in the literature. - Abstract: Na-Tech (Natural and Technological) refers to industrial accidents triggered by natural events such as storms, earthquakes, flooding, and lightning. Herein, a qualitative methodology for the initial assessment of earthquake Na-Tech risk has been developed as a screening tool to identify which situations require a much more expensive Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA). The proposed methodology, through suitable Key Hazard Indicators (KHIs), identifies the Na-Tech risk level associated with a given situation (i.e., a process plant located in a given territory), using the Analytical Hierarchy Process as a multi-criteria decision tool for the evaluation of such KHIs. The developed methodology was validated by comparing its computational results with QRA results that involved Na-Tech events previously presented in literature.

Investigation of obstacles against effective crisis management in earthquake

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mahmood Nekoei-Moghadam

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Floods, hurricanes, landslides, hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes are events that a large group of people on earth are affected. In December 2003, the residents of Bam, Iran experienced an earthquake that measured 6.6 on the Richter scale and destroyed more than 90% of the city. The purpose of this study was to investigate obstacles against effective crisis management with considering service received by individuals in the Bam earthquake. In this study, domestic journals, foreign dissertations in Persian bases such as Google scholar, Magiran, IranMedex, SID and in English bases such as PubMed, Web of Science, Google scholar were used. The results of this study showed that there were many problems in various aspects of planning including: lack of coherent programs, lack of attention to the needs of health care, poor coordination between agencies and organizations and lack of appropriate training of volunteers and people.

Seismicity and earthquake risk in western Sicily

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P. COSENTINO

1978-06-01

Full Text Available The seismicity and the earthquake risk in Western Sicily are here
evaluated on the basis of the experimental data referring to the historical
and instrumentally recorded earthquakes in this area (from 1248
up to 1968, which have been thoroughly collected, analyzed, tested and
normalized in order to assure the quasi-stationarity of the series of
events.
The approximated magnitude values — obtained by means of a compared
analysis of the magnitude and epicentral intensity values of the
latest events — have allowed to study the parameters of the frequency-
magnitude relation with both the classical exponential model and
the truncated exponential one previously proposed by the author.
So, the basic parameters, including the maximum possible regional
magnitude, have been estimated by means of different procedures, and
their behaviours have been studied as functions of the threshold magnitude.

Lessons Learned from Data Management Activities after the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011

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A Kitamoto

2013-02-01

Full Text Available This paper summarizes our effort towards managing the multi-disciplinary disaster-related data from the Great East Japan Earthquake, which happened on March 11, 2011 off the coast of Northeast Japan. This earthquake caused the largest tsunami in the recorded history of Japan, killed many people along the coast, and caused a nuclear disaster in Fukushima, which continues to affect a large area of Japan. Just after the earthquake, we started crisis response data management activities to provide useful information for supporting disaster response and recovery. This paper introduces the various types of datasets we made from the viewpoint of data management processing and draws lessons from our post-disaster activities.

Earthquake and volcanic risks: issues for the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Solidum, Dr. Renato U.

2009-01-01

The proposed re-commissioning of the mothballed Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) has raised objections that include the perceived unsafe siting of the BNPP on Mt. Natib, a potentially active volcano, in an earthquake-prone region. This concern must be evaluated through thorough seismological, paleo-seismic, volcanological and engineering studies. The BNPP sits on Napot Point on the southwest foot slope of Mt. Natib, an andesitic to dacitic stratovolcano just 30 kms south of Mt. Pinatubo. Natib's evolution is poorly known, but involved at least 3 explosive summit eruptions that formed a 6 km-diameter coalescent caldera and a younger 2-km diameter caldera. Pyroclastic flows define the cone surface, and available age dating includes a ±27 ka 14C age for a deposit on the eastern flanks and an 11-18 ka relative dating for suspected pyroclastic deposits in Subic Bay (1). Whether these represent the most recent eruptions is uncertain. A detailed magmatic/eruptive history defining magmatic recharge and eruption recurrence rates, from which probabilities for future eruptive activity can be analyzed, will be necessary for quantifying volcanic risk. Furthermore, Natib,Pinatubo and adjacent Mariveles are part of the Luzon Arc and associated with ongoing subduction along the Manila Trench. Subduction earthquakes are common, but apart from these, seismic risk is also being attributted to tectonic structures inland that include reported on site faults inferred from drilling, basin faults seen in reflection profiles (1), the Subic Bay Fault Zone delineated by magmatic studies (2) and various lineaments inferred from satellite imageries. These, plus seismicity in the region are being argued as indicators of earthquake threat. However, much emphasis is given maximum seismic magnitudes rather than peak ground accelerations (PGAs), epicentral rather than focal sources,and the inference of faults/lineaments rather than paleoseismic evidence of recent faulting. Paleoseismic studies of

Necessity of management for minor earthquake to improve public acceptance of nuclear energy in South Korea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hyun-Tae Choi

2018-04-01

Full Text Available As public acceptance of nuclear energy in Korea worsens due to the Fukushima accident and the earthquakes that occurred in the Gyeongju area near the Wolsong nuclear power plant (NPP, estimating the effects of earthquakes has become more essential for the nuclear industry. Currently, most countermeasures against earthquakes are limited to large-scale disasters. Minor-scale earthquakes used to be ignored. Even though people do not feel the shaking due to minor earthquakes and minor earthquakes incur little damage to NPPs, they can change the environmental conditions, for instance, underground water level and the conductivity of the groundwater. This study conducted a questionnaire survey of residents living in the vicinity of an NPP to determine their perception and acceptance of plant safety against minor earthquakes. The results show that the residents feel earthquakes at levels that can be felt by people, but incur little damage to NPPs, as minor earthquakes (magnitude of 2.0–3.9 and set this level as a standard for countermeasures. Even if a minor earthquake has little impact on the safety of an NPP, there is still a possibility that public opinion will get worse. This study provides analysis results about problems of earthquake measures of Korean NPPs and specific things that can bring about an effect of deterioration of public acceptance. Based on these data, this article suggests that active management of minor earthquakes is necessary for the sustainability of nuclear energy. Keywords: Earthquake Measures, Management, Minor Earthquake, Nuclear Energy, Public Acceptance

Report by the 'Mega-earthquakes and mega-tsunamis' subgroup

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Friedel, Jacques; Courtillot, Vincent; Dercourt, Jean; Jaupart, Claude; Le Pichon, Xavier; Poirier, Jean-Paul; Salencon, Jean; Tapponnier, Paul; Dautray, Robert; Carpentier, Alain; Taquet, Philippe; Blanchet, Rene; Le Mouel, Jean-Louis; BARD, Pierre-Yves; Bernard, Pascal; Montagner, Jean-Paul; Armijo, Rolando; Shapiro, Nikolai; Tait, Steve; Cara, Michel; Madariaga, Raul; Pecker, Alain; Schindele, Francois; Douglas, John

2011-06-01

This report comprises a presentation of scientific data on subduction earthquakes, on tsunamis and on the Tohoku earthquake. It proposes a detailed description of the French situation (in the West Indies, in metropolitan France, and in terms of soil response), and a discussion of social and economic issues (governance, seismic regulation and nuclear safety, para-seismic protection of constructions). The report is completed by other large documents: presentation of data on the Japanese earthquake, discussion on prediction and governance errors in the management of earthquake mitigation in Japan, discussions on tsunami prevention, on needs of research on accelerometers, and on the seismic risk in France

The MCE (Maximum Credible Earthquake) - an approach to reduction of seismic risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asmis, G.J.K.; Atchison, R.J.

1979-01-01

It is the responsibility of the Regulatory Body (in Canada, the AECB) to ensure that radiological risks resulting from the effects of earthquakes on nuclear facilities, do not exceed acceptable levels. In simplified numerical terms this means that the frequency of an unacceptable radiation dose must be kept below 10 -6 per annum. Unfortunately, seismic events fall into the class of external events which are not well defined at these low frequency levels. Thus, design earthquakes have been chosen, at the 10 -3 - 10 -4 frequency level, a level commensurate with the limits of statistical data. There exists, therefore, a need to define an additional level of earthquake. A seismic design explicitly and implicitly recognizes three levels of earthquake loading; one comfortably below yield, one at or about yield, and one at ultimate. The ultimate level earthquake, contrary to the first two, has been implicitly addressed by conscientious designers by choosing systems, materials and details compatible with postulated dynamic forces. It is the purpose of this paper to discuss the regulatory specifications required to quantify this third level, or Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE). (orig.)

Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER) project and a next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system

Science.gov (United States)

Takarada, S.

2012-12-01

The first Workshop of Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER1) was held in Tsukuba, Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan from February 23 to 24, 2012. The workshop focused on the formulation of strategies to reduce the risks of disasters worldwide caused by the occurrence of earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. More than 150 participants attended the workshop. During the workshop, the G-EVER1 accord was approved by the participants. The Accord consists of 10 recommendations like enhancing collaboration, sharing of resources, and making information about the risks of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions freely available and understandable. The G-EVER Hub website (http://g-ever.org) was established to promote the exchange of information and knowledge among the Asia-Pacific countries. Several G-EVER Working Groups and Task Forces were proposed. One of the working groups was tasked to make the next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system. The next-generation volcano hazard assessment system is useful for volcanic eruption prediction, risk assessment, and evacuation at various eruption stages. The assessment system is planned to be developed based on volcanic eruption scenario datasets, volcanic eruption database, and numerical simulations. Defining volcanic eruption scenarios based on precursor phenomena leading up to major eruptions of active volcanoes is quite important for the future prediction of volcanic eruptions. Compiling volcanic eruption scenarios after a major eruption is also important. A high quality volcanic eruption database, which contains compilations of eruption dates, volumes, and styles, is important for the next-generation volcano hazard assessment system. The volcanic eruption database is developed based on past eruption results, which only represent a subset of possible future scenarios. Hence, different distributions from the previous deposits are mainly observed due to the differences in

Advances in coastal disasters risk management : Lessons from the 2011 Tohoku tsunami

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jonkman, S.N.; Yasuda, T.; Tsimopoulou, V.; Kawai, H.; Kato, F.

2012-01-01

The earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 led to death and destruction in coastal areas in Japan. A seminar was held in June 2012 for Japanese and Dutch coastal researchers to discuss lessons for the management of the risks in coastal areas associated with tsunamis, typhoons and storm surges. The

Environmental risk evaluation to minimize impacts within the area affected by the Wenchuan earthquake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Du, Pengfei; Chen, Jining; Chen, Chao; Liu, Yi; Liu, Jianguo; Wang, Hongtao; Zhang, Xiaojian

2012-01-01

Earthquakes can be devastating to built infrastructure and the natural environment, as evidenced by the March 2011, M = 9.0 earthquake, and subsequent tsunami, in Japan. As seen in the Japanese event, environmental damage caused by secondary disasters (tsunami, leakage from a nuclear reactor) can equal or exceed the impacts of the primary event. In order to develop an environmental assessment system to examine secondary disasters, a comprehensive environmental impact evaluation was conducted after the Wenchuan earthquake that occurred on 12 May 2008 in the Sichuan Province, China. This evaluation focused on several key environmental elements such as wastewater, drinking water, soil, solid waste, radiation, and ecosystem-level effects. As part of this assessment, an analysis of root causes and potential solutions was conducted for key issues such as population relocation and resettlement in temporary dwellings, recovery of environmental protection functions, industrial development strategies and production recovery. Methods for post-quake environmental assessment were developed, utilizing GIS-based techniques for spatial evaluation of primary and secondary disaster patterns. The goal of this exercise was the development of effective assessment methods that can be rapidly applied in a post-disaster situation to reduce and mitigate damage caused by secondary disasters, and facilitate the recovery of impaired environmental management structure and function. - Highlights: ► A comprehensive post-quake environmental risk evaluation system was developed. ► The research identifies potential long-term environmental risks in many aspects. ► The research analyzes potential solutions for many typical post-disaster issues. ► Effective assessment methods can be applied in a post-disaster situation to reduce damage caused by secondary disasters.

Environmental risk evaluation to minimize impacts within the area affected by the Wenchuan earthquake

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Du, Pengfei, E-mail: dupf@tsinghua.edu.cn; Chen, Jining, E-mail: jchen1@tsinghua.edu.cn; Chen, Chao, E-mail: chen_water@tsinghua.edu.cn; Liu, Yi, E-mail: yi.liu@tsinghua.edu.cn; Liu, Jianguo, E-mail: jgliu@tsinghua.edu.cn; Wang, Hongtao, E-mail: htwang@tsinghua.edu.cn; Zhang, Xiaojian, E-mail: zhangxj@tsinghua.edu.cn

2012-03-01

Earthquakes can be devastating to built infrastructure and the natural environment, as evidenced by the March 2011, M = 9.0 earthquake, and subsequent tsunami, in Japan. As seen in the Japanese event, environmental damage caused by secondary disasters (tsunami, leakage from a nuclear reactor) can equal or exceed the impacts of the primary event. In order to develop an environmental assessment system to examine secondary disasters, a comprehensive environmental impact evaluation was conducted after the Wenchuan earthquake that occurred on 12 May 2008 in the Sichuan Province, China. This evaluation focused on several key environmental elements such as wastewater, drinking water, soil, solid waste, radiation, and ecosystem-level effects. As part of this assessment, an analysis of root causes and potential solutions was conducted for key issues such as population relocation and resettlement in temporary dwellings, recovery of environmental protection functions, industrial development strategies and production recovery. Methods for post-quake environmental assessment were developed, utilizing GIS-based techniques for spatial evaluation of primary and secondary disaster patterns. The goal of this exercise was the development of effective assessment methods that can be rapidly applied in a post-disaster situation to reduce and mitigate damage caused by secondary disasters, and facilitate the recovery of impaired environmental management structure and function. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A comprehensive post-quake environmental risk evaluation system was developed. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The research identifies potential long-term environmental risks in many aspects. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The research analyzes potential solutions for many typical post-disaster issues. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Effective assessment methods can be applied in a post-disaster situation to reduce damage caused by secondary disasters.

Earthquake, GIS and multimedia. The 1883 Casamicciola earthquake

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Rebuffat

1995-06-01

Full Text Available A series of multimedia monographs concerning the main seismic events that have affected the Italian territory are in the process of being produced for the Documental Integrated Multimedia Project (DIMP started by the Italian National Seismic Survey (NSS. The purpose of the project is to reconstruct the historical record of earthquakes and promote an earthquake public education. Producing the monographs. developed in ARC INFO and working in UNIX. involved designing a special filing and management methodology to integrate heterogeneous information (images, papers, cartographies, etc.. This paper describes the possibilities of a GIS (Geographic Information System in the filing and management of documental information. As an example we present the first monograph on the 1883 Casamicciola earthquake. on the island of Ischia (Campania, Italy. This earthquake is particularly interesting for the following reasons: I historical-cultural context (first destructive seismic event after the unification of Italy; 2 its features (volcanic earthquake; 3 the socioeconomic consequences caused at such an important seaside resort.

Natural-technological risk assessment and management

Science.gov (United States)

Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

2016-04-01

EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

Baseline geophysical data for hazard management in coastal areas in relation to earthquakes and tsunamis

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Murthy, K.S.R.

is another factor for some of the intraplate earthquakes in the South Indian Shield, which includes the Eastern and Western Continental Margins of India. Baseline geophysical data for hazard management in coastal areas in relation to earthquakes... surge. Keywords Hazard management, marine geophysical data, geomorphology and tsunami surge, coastal seismicity Date received: 7 August 2015; accepted: 15 October 2015 CSIR – National Institute of Oceanography, Visakhapatnam, India Corresponding author...

Spatio-temporal earthquake risk assessment for the Lisbon Metropolitan Area - A contribution to improving standard methods of population exposure and vulnerability analysis

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Freire, Sérgio; Aubrecht, Christoph

2010-05-01

The recent 7.0 M earthquake that caused severe damage and destruction in parts of Haiti struck close to 5 PM (local time), at a moment when many people were not in their residences, instead being in their workplaces, schools, or churches. Community vulnerability assessment to seismic hazard relying solely on the location and density of resident-based census population, as is commonly the case, would grossly misrepresent the real situation. In particular in the context of global (climate) change, risk analysis is a research field increasingly gaining in importance whereas risk is usually defined as a function of hazard probability and vulnerability. Assessment and mapping of human vulnerability has however generally been lagging behind hazard analysis efforts. Central to the concept of vulnerability is the issue of human exposure. Analysis of exposure is often spatially tied to administrative units or reference objects such as buildings, spanning scales from the regional level to local studies for small areas. Due to human activities and mobility, the spatial distribution of population is time-dependent, especially in metropolitan areas. Accurately estimating population exposure is a key component of catastrophe loss modeling, one element of effective risk analysis and emergency management. Therefore, accounting for the spatio-temporal dynamics of human vulnerability correlates with recent recommendations to improve vulnerability analyses. Earthquakes are the prototype for a major disaster, being low-probability, rapid-onset, high-consequence events. Lisbon, Portugal, is subject to a high risk of earthquake, which can strike at any day and time, as confirmed by modern history (e.g. December 2009). The recently-approved Special Emergency and Civil Protection Plan (PEERS) is based on a Seismic Intensity map, and only contemplates resident population from the census as proxy for human exposure. In the present work we map and analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of

Integrated Earthquake Risk Assessment in the Kathmandu Valley - A Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Schaper, Julia; Anhorn, Johannes; Khazai, Bijan; Nüsser, Marcus

2013-04-01

Rapid urban growth is a process which can be observed in cities worldwide. Managing these growing urban areas has become a major challenge for both governing bodies and citizens. Situated not only in a highly earthquake and landslide-prone area, but comprising also the cultural and political capital of Nepal, the fast expanding Kathmandu Valley in the Himalayan region is of particular interest. Vulnerability assessment has been an important tool for spatial planning in this already densely populated area. The magnitude 8.4 earthquake of Bihar in 1934 cost 8600 Nepalis their lives, destroyed 20% of the Kathmandu building stock and heavily damaged another 40%. Since then, Kathmandu has grown into a hub with over a million inhabitants. Rapid infrastructure and population growth aggravate the vulnerability conditions, particularly in the core area of Metropolitan Kathmandu. We propose an integrative framework for vulnerability and risk in Kathmandu Valley. In order to move towards a more systemic and integrated approach, we focus on interactions between natural hazards, physically engineered systems and society. High resolution satellite images are used to identify structural vulnerability of the building stock within the study area. Using object-based image analysis, the spatial dynamics of urban growth are assessed and validated using field data. Complementing this is the analysis of socio-economic attributes gained from databases and field surveys. An indicator-based vulnerability and resilience index will be operationalized using multi-attribute value theory and statistical methods such as principal component analysis. The results allow for a socio-economic comparison of places and their relative potential for harm and loss. The objective in this task is to better understand the interactions between nature and society, engineered systems and built environments through the development of an interdisciplinary framework on systemic seismic risk and vulnerability. Data

Human Trafficking in Nepal: Post-Earthquake Risk and Response.

Science.gov (United States)

Gyawali, Bishal; Keeling, June; Kallestrup, Per

2017-04-01

As Nepal mourns the 1-year commemoration of the April 2015 earthquake and its aftershocks that killed more than 8500 people and left thousands injured and displaced, other more hidden repercussions of the resultant chaotic environment need attention: the increased risk of human trafficking. Considering that natural disasters provide a milieu for this illicit trade, there is a need for a robust response from stakeholders such as donors, civil society organizations, and government organizations against human trafficking following disasters such as the Nepal earthquake. Responsibility to prevent and fight trafficking should be explicitly included in the mandate of relief and rehabilitation mechanisms set up at the national level to coordinate the disaster relief response, serving to support populations in both rural and urban areas. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:153-154).

Comparing population exposure to multiple Washington earthquake scenarios for prioritizing loss estimation studies

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, Nathan J.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Schelling, John; Weaver, Craig S.

2014-01-01

Scenario-based, loss-estimation studies are useful for gauging potential societal impacts from earthquakes but can be challenging to undertake in areas with multiple scenarios and jurisdictions. We present a geospatial approach using various population data for comparing earthquake scenarios and jurisdictions to help emergency managers prioritize where to focus limited resources on data development and loss-estimation studies. Using 20 earthquake scenarios developed for the State of Washington (USA), we demonstrate how a population-exposure analysis across multiple jurisdictions based on Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) classes helps emergency managers understand and communicate where potential loss of life may be concentrated and where impacts may be more related to quality of life. Results indicate that certain well-known scenarios may directly impact the greatest number of people, whereas other, potentially lesser-known, scenarios impact fewer people but consequences could be more severe. The use of economic data to profile each jurisdiction’s workforce in earthquake hazard zones also provides additional insight on at-risk populations. This approach can serve as a first step in understanding societal impacts of earthquakes and helping practitioners to efficiently use their limited risk-reduction resources.

Suicide risk among young children after the Great East Japan Earthquake: A follow-up study.

Science.gov (United States)

Fujiwara, Takeo; Yagi, Junko; Homma, Hiroaki; Mashiko, Hirobumi; Nagao, Keizo; Okuyama, Makiko

2017-07-01

On 11 March 2011, the Great East Japan Earthquake and subsequent tsunami hit East Japan. We aim to investigate the impact of trauma experiences related to the earthquake on suicide risk among young children, stratified by child sex. Participants at baseline were children who were exposed to the 2011 disaster at preschool age (affected area, n=198; unaffected area, n=82, total n=280). From July 2013 to May 2014, suicide risk was assessed using the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview for Children and Adolescents (MINI-KID) in a follow-up interview conducted by a child psychiatrist or psychologist (N=210, follow-up rate: 75%). Among young girls in the affected area, 12 out of 65 (18.5%) showed suicidal ideation, which is significantly higher than girls in the unaffected area (4.7%, p for chi-square=0.036). In the multivariate model adjusted for potential confounders and mediators, the odds ratio for 4 or more trauma experiences related to the earthquake was 5.74 (95% confidence interval: 0.83-39.6, p=0.076) compared to no trauma experience related to the earthquake. Among young boys, trauma exposure was not associated with suicidal ideation. Our findings showed that young girls who experienced earthquake-related trauma at preschool age had a higher suicidal ideation 3 years after the earthquake. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Evaluation of earthquake vibration on aseismic design of nuclear power plant judging from recent earthquakes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dan, Kazuo

2006-01-01

The Regulatory Guide for Aseismic Design of Nuclear Reactor Facilities was revised on 19 th September, 2006. Six factors for evaluation of earthquake vibration are considered on the basis of the recent earthquakes. They are 1) evaluation of earthquake vibration by method using fault model, 2) investigation and approval of active fault, 3) direct hit earthquake, 4) assumption of the short active fault as the hypocentral fault, 5) locality of the earthquake and the earthquake vibration and 6) remaining risk. A guiding principle of revision required new evaluation method of earthquake vibration using fault model, and evaluation of probability of earthquake vibration. The remaining risk means the facilities and people get into danger when stronger earthquake than the design occurred, accordingly, the scattering has to be considered at evaluation of earthquake vibration. The earthquake belt of Hyogo-Nanbu earthquake and strong vibration pulse in 1995, relation between length of surface earthquake fault and hypocentral fault, and distribution of seismic intensity of off Kushiro in 1993 are shown. (S.Y.)

Risk Perception and Economic Value Of Disaster Mitigation Case of Bantul Post Earthquake May 2006

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Suryanto

2012-10-01

Full Text Available This study aims to obtain empirical evidence of disaster mitigation in Bantul, Indonesia. The expected utility theory and impact of regional characteristics on individual perceptions was used to describe the disaster risk management process. The regional mapping based on hazard level was conducted by a Geographical Information System (GIS. Data used in this research were primary and secondary data. Primary data were obtained by distributing questionnaire to some respondents. Sample amounts used were 395 respondents. The research empirical contribution was to economic valuation method used towards safety and efforts to link regional characteristics, individual perception and also their willingness to conduct mitigation. The research practical contribution was to identify some key obstacles in disaster risk management. Based on multiple regression analysis, this study found that educational level, risk aversion degree, trust towards earthquake resistant building, control ability, income level, classification of hazard area contributes to higher Willingness To Pay (WTP for mitigation. It also found that perception towards central governmental roles variable did not affect to WTP for mitigation. However, the income levels of the communities in Bantul positively correspond to WTP for mitigation suggesting that the findings were consistent with the expected utility theory.

Disturbances in equilibrium function after major earthquake.

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Honma, Motoyasu; Endo, Nobutaka; Osada, Yoshihisa; Kim, Yoshiharu; Kuriyama, Kenichi

2012-01-01

Major earthquakes were followed by a large number of aftershocks and significant outbreaks of dizziness occurred over a large area. However it is unclear why major earthquake causes dizziness. We conducted an intergroup trial on equilibrium dysfunction and psychological states associated with equilibrium dysfunction in individuals exposed to repetitive aftershocks versus those who were rarely exposed. Greater equilibrium dysfunction was observed in the aftershock-exposed group under conditions without visual compensation. Equilibrium dysfunction in the aftershock-exposed group appears to have arisen from disturbance of the inner ear, as well as individual vulnerability to state anxiety enhanced by repetitive exposure to aftershocks. We indicate potential effects of autonomic stress on equilibrium function after major earthquake. Our findings may contribute to risk management of psychological and physical health after major earthquakes with aftershocks, and allow development of a new empirical approach to disaster care after such events.

Collapse risk of buildings in the Pacific Northwest region due to subduction earthquakes

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Raghunandan, Meera; Liel, Abbie B.; Luco, Nicolas

2015-01-01

Subduction earthquakes similar to the 2011 Japan and 2010 Chile events will occur in the future in the Cascadia subduction zone in the Pacific Northwest. In this paper, nonlinear dynamic analyses are carried out on 24 buildings designed according to outdated and modern building codes for the cities of Seattle, Washington, and Portland, Oregon. The results indicate that the median collapse capacity of the ductile (post-1970) buildings is approximately 40% less when subjected to ground motions from subduction, as compared to crustal earthquakes. Buildings are more susceptible to earthquake-induced collapse when shaken by subduction records (as compared to crustal records of the same intensity) because the subduction motions tend to be longer in duration due to their larger magnitude and the greater source-to-site distance. As a result, subduction earthquakes are shown to contribute to the majority of the collapse risk of the buildings analyzed.

Data base pertinent to earthquake design basis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sharma, R.D.

1988-01-01

Mitigation of earthquake risk from impending strong earthquakes is possible provided the hazard can be assessed, and translated into appropriate design inputs. This requires defining the seismic risk problem, isolating the risk factors and quantifying risk in terms of physical parameters, which are suitable for application in design. Like all other geological phenomena, past earthquakes hold the key to the understanding of future ones. Quantificatio n of seismic risk at a site calls for investigating the earthquake aspects of the site region and building a data base. The scope of such investigations is il lustrated in Figure 1 and 2. A more detailed definition of the earthquake problem in engineering design is given elsewhere (Sharma, 1987). The present document discusses the earthquake data base, which is required to support a seismic risk evaluation programme in the context of the existing state of the art. (author). 8 tables, 10 figs., 54 refs

From Seismic Scenarios to Earthquake Risk Assessment: A Case Study for Iquique, Chile.

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Aguirre, P.; Fortuno, C.; Martin, J. C. D. L. L.; Vasquez, J.

2015-12-01

Iquique is a strategic city and economic center in northern Chile, and is located in a large seismic gap where a megathrust earthquake and tsunami is expected. Although it was hit by a Mw 8.2 earthquake on April 1st 2014, which caused moderate damage, geophysical evidence still suggests that there is potential for a larger event, so a thorough risk assessment is key to understand the physical, social, and economic effects of such potential event, and devise appropriate mitigation plans. Hence, Iquique has been selected as a prime study case for the implementation of a risk assessment platform in Chile. Our study integrates research on three main elements of risk calculations: hazard evaluation, exposure model, and physical vulnerabilities. To characterize the hazard field, a set of synthetic seismic scenarios have been developed based on plate interlocking and the residual slip potential that results from subtracting the slip occurred during the April 1st 2014 rupture fault mechanism, obtained using InSAR+GPS inversion. Additional scenarios were developed based of the fault rupture model of the Maule 2010 Mw 8.8 earthquake and on the local plate locking models in northern Chile. These rupture models define a collection of possible realizations of earthquake geometries parameterized in terms of critical variables like slip magnitude, rise time, mean propagation velocity, directivity, and other, which are propagated to obtain a hazard map for Iquique (e.g. PGA, PGV, PDG). Furthermore, a large body of public and local data was used to construct a detailed exposure model for Iquique, including aggregated building count, demographics, essential facilities, and lifelines. This model together with the PGA maps for the April 1st 2014 earthquake are used to calibrate HAZUS outputs against observed damage, and adjust the fragility curves of physical systems according to more detailed analyses of typical Chilean building types and their structural properties, plus historical

Menstrual hygiene management among women and adolescent girls in the aftermath of the earthquake in Nepal.

Science.gov (United States)

Budhathoki, Shyam Sundar; Bhattachan, Meika; Castro-Sánchez, Enrique; Sagtani, Reshu Agrawal; Rayamajhi, Rajan Bikram; Rai, Pramila; Sharma, Gaurav

2018-02-02

Menstrual hygiene management (MHM) is an essential aspect of hygiene for women and adolescent girls between menarche and menopause. Despite being an important issue concerning women and girls in the menstruating age group MHM is often overlooked in post-disaster responses. Further, there is limited evidence of menstrual hygiene management in humanitarian settings. This study aims to describe the experiences and perceptions of women and adolescent girls on menstrual hygiene management in post-earthquake Nepal. A mixed methods study was carried out among the earthquake affected women and adolescent girls in three villages of Sindhupalchowk district of Nepal. Data was collected using a semi-structured questionnaire that captured experiences and perceptions of respondents on menstrual hygiene management in the aftermath of the Nepal earthquake. Quantitative data were triangulated with in-depth interview regarding respondent's personal experiences of menstrual hygiene management. Menstrual hygiene was rated as the sixth highest overall need and perceived as an immediate need by 18.8% of the respondents. There were 42.8% women & girls who menstruated within first week of the earthquake. Reusable sanitary cloth were used by about 66.7% of the respondents before the earthquake and remained a popular method (76.1%) post-earthquake. None of the respondents reported receiving menstrual adsorbents as relief materials in the first month following the earthquake. Disposable pads (77.8%) were preferred by respondents as they were perceived to be clean and convenient to use. Most respondents (73.5%) felt that reusable sanitary pads were a sustainable choice. Women who were in the age group of 15-34 years (OR = 3.14; CI = (1.07-9.20), did not go to school (OR = 9.68; CI = 2.16-43.33), married (OR = 2.99; CI = 1.22-7.31) and previously used reusable sanitary cloth (OR = 5.82; CI = 2.33-14.55) were more likely to use the reusable sanitary cloth. In

Delphi survey of issues after the Great East Japan Earthquake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maeda, Yasunobu; Seo, Kami; Motoyoshi, Tadahiro; Okada, Shinya

2011-01-01

The Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011 has catastrophic impacts on Japan. Japan is currently on the way to recovery. However, as the damage on the country as well as society is so serious, Japanese society is urged to change some systems including hazard management, energy policy, information systems and city planning. These changes are accompanied with social group realignments, thus necessarily followed by various risks. To cope with these risk issues, SRA-Japan established the special research committee for the Great East Japan Earthquake. The aim of the committee is, from viewpoints of risk analysts, to create and relate messages about risk issues in 2-3 years, in ten years and in thirty years from the earthquake. To do this, the committee garners SRA-Japan member's opinions about possible risks in Japan by using Delphi method. In SRA-Japan, there are over 600 members in interdisciplinary fields from various backgrounds, thus the messages are expected to be helpful for Japanese society to lower its risks and to optimize the resource allocation. The research is now underway. An interim report will be presented. (author)

Development of fire risk assessment method caused by earthquake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mitomo, Nobuo; Matsukura, Hiroshi; Matsuoka, Takeshi; Suzuki, Kazutaka

2000-01-01

The purpose of this research is to establish the assessment method of the risk of the multiple fires caused by earthquake, in the framework of PSA. In order to establish this method, we have settled four tasks and started a five years research project in 1999 for five years. These results will be useful for not only nuclear power plants but also chemical plants, traffic systems etc. (author)

Long-term effects of earthquake experience of young persons on cardiovascular disease risk factors

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Na; Wang, Yumei; Yu, Lulu; Song, Mei; Wang, Lan; Ji, Chunpeng

2016-01-01

Introduction The aim of the study was to study the long-term effect on cardiovascular disease risk factors of stress from direct experience of an earthquake as a young person. Material and methods We selected workers born between July 1, 1958 and July 1, 1976 who were examined at Kailuan General Hospital between May and October of 2013. Data on cardiovascular events were taken during the workers’ annual health examination conducted between 2006 and 2007. All subjects were divided into three groups according to their experience of the Tangshan earthquake of July 28, 1976, as follows: control group; exposed group 1 and exposed group 2. We compared cardiovascular disease risk factors between the three groups as well as by gender and age. Results One thousand one hundred and ninety-six workers were included in the final statistical analysis. Among all subjects, resting heart rate (p = 0.003), total cholesterol (p earthquake compared with unexposed controls, but were unrelated to loss of relatives. No significant difference in triglyceride levels was observed between the three groups (p = 0.900). Further refinement showed that the effects were restricted to males 40 years of age or older at the time of analysis, but were due primarily to age at the time of earthquake exposure (p = 0.002, p Earthquake experience in the early years of life has long-term effects on adult resting heart rate, total cholesterol, and fasting plasma glucose, especially among men. PMID:28144258

The risk communication using the special website of the society of risk analysis for the Great East Japan Earthquake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsubokawa, Hiroaki; Nagasaka, Toshinari; Sunaga, Yohei; Lee, Taiyoung; Taguchi, Hitoshi; Usuda, Yuichiro

2011-01-01

The Society for Risk Analysis Japan built the special website that reply to the people who are concerning the risk related to the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred on March 11, 2011. Although, there were many risk communication activities between the specialists of the risk research and citizens on the website, there are some significant problems for the risk communication using the website. This report summarizes the result of our activity. (author)

SEISMIC RISK CARTOGRAPHIC VISUALIZATION FOR CRISIS MANAGEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nina I. Frolova

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Earthquake loss estimations before future events and following strong earthquakesin emergency mode and their corresponding visualization are extremely important for properdecision on preventive measures and effective response in order to save lives and properties. The paper addresses the methodological issues of seismic risk and vulnerability assessment, mapping with GIS technology application. Requirements for simulation models,databases used at different levels, as well as ways of visualizations oriented for EmergencyManagement Agencies, as well federal and local authorities are discussed. Examples ofmapping at the different levels: global, country, region and urban one are given and theinfluence of input data uncertainties on the reliability of loss computations is analyzed.

Risk communication, geoethics and decision science issues in Japan's disaster management system

Science.gov (United States)

Sugimoto, M.

2014-12-01

Issues in Japan's disaster management system were revealed by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, and by the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station accident. Many important decisions were based on scientific data, but appear not to have sufficiently considered the uncertainties of the data and the societal aspects of the problems. The issues that arose show the need for scientists to appropriately deal with risk communication and geoethics and issues. This paper discusses necessity of　education for risk communication, geoethics and decisions science in school before students become sicentific decision makers in future.

Recent innovation of geospatial information technology to support disaster risk management and responses

Science.gov (United States)

Une, Hiroshi; Nakano, Takayuki

2018-05-01

Geographic location is one of the most fundamental and indispensable information elements in the field of disaster response and prevention. For example, in the case of the Tohoku Earthquake in 2011, aerial photos taken immediately after the earthquake greatly improved information sharing among different government offices and facilitated rescue and recovery operations, and maps prepared after the disaster assisted in the rapid reconstruction of affected local communities. Thanks to the recent development of geospatial information technology, this information has become more essential for disaster response activities. Advancements in web mapping technology allows us to better understand the situation by overlaying various location-specific data on base maps on the web and specifying the areas on which activities should be focused. Through 3-D modelling technology, we can have a more realistic understanding of the relationship between disaster and topography. Geospatial information technology can sup-port proper preparation and emergency responses against disasters by individuals and local communities through hazard mapping and other information services using mobile devices. Thus, geospatial information technology is playing a more vital role on all stages of disaster risk management and responses. In acknowledging geospatial information's vital role in disaster risk reduction, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, adopted at the Third United Nations World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction, repeatedly reveals the importance of utilizing geospatial information technology for disaster risk reduction. This presentation aims to report the recent practical applications of geospatial information technology for disaster risk management and responses.

Dynamic evaluation of seismic hazard and risks based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Kossobokov, V. G.; Nekrasova, A.

2016-12-01

We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing seismic hazard maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), i.e. log N(M,L) = A + B•(6 - M) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L, A characterizes the average annual rate of strong (M = 6) earthquakes, B determines the balance between magnitude ranges, and C estimates the fractal dimension of seismic locus in projection to the Earth surface. The parameters A, B, and C of USLE are used to assess, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at a seismically prone cell of a uniform grid that cover the region of interest, and then the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters. After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (e.g., the historically reported macro-seismic intensity or paleo data), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures. The hazard maps for a given territory change dramatically, when the methodology is applied to a certain size moving time window, e.g. about a decade long for an intermediate-term regional assessment or exponentially increasing intervals for a daily local strong aftershock forecasting. The of dynamical seismic hazard and risks assessment is illustrated by applications to the territory of Greater Caucasus and Crimea and the two-year series of aftershocks of the 11 October 2008 Kurchaloy, Chechnya earthquake which case-history appears to be encouraging for further systematic testing as potential short-term forecasting tool.

Developing Effective Earthquake Risk Reduction Strategies: The Potential Role of Academic Institutions in Lebanon

Science.gov (United States)

Baytiyeh, Hoda

2015-01-01

Lebanon faces the risk of powerful earthquakes with potentially devastating effects. However, the Lebanese people in general have not yet recognized this risk, as current educational programs and government officials have failed to inform them about it. This article discusses the essential role that Lebanese institutions of higher education should…

Earthquake Loss Assessment for the Evaluation of the Sovereign Risk and Financial Sustainability of Countries and Cities

Science.gov (United States)

Cardona, O. D.

2013-05-01

Recently earthquakes have struck cities both from developing as well as developed countries, revealing significant knowledge gaps and the need to improve the quality of input data and of the assumptions of the risk models. The quake and tsunami in Japan (2011) and the disasters due to earthquakes in Haiti (2010), Chile (2010), New Zealand (2011) and Spain (2011), only to mention some unexpected impacts in different regions, have left several concerns regarding hazard assessment as well as regarding the associated uncertainties to the estimation of the future losses. Understanding probable losses and reconstruction costs due to earthquakes creates powerful incentives for countries to develop planning options and tools to cope with sovereign risk, including allocating the sustained budgetary resources necessary to reduce those potential damages and safeguard development. Therefore the use of robust risk models is a need to assess the future economic impacts, the country's fiscal responsibilities and the contingent liabilities for governments and to formulate, justify and implement risk reduction measures and optimal financial strategies of risk retention and transfer. Special attention should be paid to the understanding of risk metrics such as the Loss Exceedance Curve (empiric and analytical) and the Expected Annual Loss in the context of conjoint and cascading hazards.

Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis and Ranking Tool (SMART in earthquake risk assessment: a case study of Delhi region, India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nishant Sinha

2016-03-01

Full Text Available This article is aimed at earthquake hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis and Ranking Tool (SMART, which is based on Saaty's multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA technique. The three specific study sites of Delhi were chosen for research as it corresponds to a typical patch of the urban environs, completely engrossed with residential, commercial and industrial units. The earthquake hazard affecting components are established in the form of geographic information system data-set layers including seismic zone, peak ground acceleration (PGA, soil characteristics, liquefaction potential, geological characteristics, land use, proximity to fault and epicentre. The physical vulnerability layers comprising building information, namely number of stories, year-built range, area, occupancy and construction type, derived from remote sensing imagery, were only considered for the current research. SMART was developed for earthquake risk assessment, and weights were derived both at component and its element level. Based on weighted overlay techniques, the earthquake hazard and vulnerability layers were created from which the risk maps were derived through multiplicative analysis. The developed risk maps may prove useful in decision-making process and formulating risk mitigation measures.

Has El Salvador Fault Zone produced M ≥ 7.0 earthquakes? The 1719 El Salvador earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Canora, C.; Martínez-Díaz, J.; Álvarez-Gómez, J.; Villamor, P.; Ínsua-Arévalo, J.; Alonso-Henar, J.; Capote, R.

2013-05-01

Historically, large earthquakes, Mw ≥ 7.0, in the Εl Salvador area have been attributed to activity in the Cocos-Caribbean subduction zone. Τhis is correct for most of the earthquakes of magnitude greater than 6.5. However, recent paleoseismic evidence points to the existence of large earthquakes associated with rupture of the Εl Salvador Fault Ζone, an Ε-W oriented strike slip fault system that extends for 150 km through central Εl Salvador. Τo calibrate our results from paleoseismic studies, we have analyzed the historical seismicity of the area. In particular, we suggest that the 1719 earthquake can be associated with paleoseismic activity evidenced in the Εl Salvador Fault Ζone. Α reinterpreted isoseismal map for this event suggests that the damage reported could have been a consequence of the rupture of Εl Salvador Fault Ζone, rather than rupture of the subduction zone. Τhe isoseismal is not different to other upper crustal earthquakes in similar tectonovolcanic environments. We thus challenge the traditional assumption that only the subduction zone is capable of generating earthquakes of magnitude greater than 7.0 in this region. Τhis result has broad implications for future risk management in the region. Τhe potential occurrence of strong ground motion, significantly higher and closer to the Salvadorian populations that those assumed to date, must be considered in seismic hazard assessment studies in this area.

"Near-term" Natural Catastrophe Risk Management and Risk Hedging in a Changing Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

2014-05-01

Competing with analytics - Can the insurance market take advantage of seasonal or "near-term" forecasting and temporal changes in risk? Natural perils (re)insurance has been based on models following climatology i.e. the long-term "historical" average. This is opposed to considering the "near-term" and forecasting hazard and risk for the seasons or years to come. Variability and short-term changes in risk are deemed abundant for almost all perils. In addition to hydrometeorological perils whose changes are vastly discussed, earthquake activity might also change over various time-scales affected by earlier local (or even global) events, regional changes in the distribution of stresses and strains and more. Only recently has insurance risk modeling of (stochastic) hurricane-years or extratropical-storm-years started considering our ability to forecast climate variability herewith taking advantage of apparent correlations between climate indicators and the activity of storm events. Once some of these "near-term measures" were in the market, rating agencies and regulators swiftly adopted these concepts demanding companies to deploy a selection of more conservative "time-dependent" models. This was despite the fact that the ultimate effect of some of these measures on insurance risk was not well understood. Apparent short-term success over the last years in near-term seasonal hurricane forecasting was brought to a halt in 2013 when these models failed to forecast the exceptional shortage of hurricanes herewith contradicting an active-year forecast. The focus of earthquake forecasting has in addition been mostly on high rather than low temporal and regional activity despite the fact that avoiding losses does not by itself create a product. This presentation sheds light on new risk management concepts for over-regional and global (re)insurance portfolios that take advantage of forecasting changes in risk. The presentation focuses on the "upside" and on new opportunities

Earthquake risk reduction in the United States: An assessment of selected user needs and recommendations for the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1994-12-31

This Assessment was conducted to improve the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) by providing NEHRP agencies with information that supports their user-oriented setting of crosscutting priorities in the NEHRP strategic planning process. The primary objective of this Assessment was to take a ``snapshot`` evaluation of the needs of selected users throughout the major program elements of NEHRP. Secondary objectives were to conduct an assessment of the knowledge that exists (or is being developed by NEHRP) to support earthquake risk reduction, and to begin a process of evaluating how NEHRP is meeting user needs. An identification of NEHRP`s strengths also resulted from the effort, since those strengths demonstrate successful methods that may be useful to NEHRP in the future. These strengths are identified in the text, and many of them represent important achievements since the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act was passed in 1977.

Earthquake Early Warning Management based on Client-Server using Primary Wave data from Vibrating Sensor

Science.gov (United States)

Laumal, F. E.; Nope, K. B. N.; Peli, Y. S.

2018-01-01

Early warning is a warning mechanism before an actual incident occurs, can be implemented on natural events such as tsunamis or earthquakes. Earthquakes are classified in tectonic and volcanic types depend on the source and nature. The tremor in the form of energy propagates in all directions as Primary and Secondary waves. Primary wave as initial earthquake vibrations propagates longitudinally, while the secondary wave propagates like as a sinusoidal wave after Primary, destructive and as a real earthquake. To process the primary vibration data captured by the earthquake sensor, a network management required client computer to receives primary data from sensors, authenticate and forward to a server computer to set up an early warning system. With the water propagation concept, a method of early warning system has been determined in which some sensors are located on the same line, sending initial vibrations as primary data on the same scale and the server recommended to the alarm sound as an early warning.

Risk factors for malnutrition in under-five children: one year after the Yogyakarta earthquake

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Neti Nurani

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Background Malnutrition in children under the age of five remains a major health problem, since half of mortality cases in this age group involve malnutrition. The 2006 earthquake caused destruction of physical, biological and socio-economic environments, potentially leading to malnutrition in Yogyakarta children. Objective To identify the prevalence and risk factors of malnutrition in Yogyakarta children under five years of age, one year after the 2006 earthquake. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study among children aged 0 to 60 months in the Bambanglipuro Subdistrict, Bantul Regency, Yogyakarta from September to October 2007. Nutritional status was determined using weight for height Z-scores, according to the WHO 2006 Child Growth Standards. Results Out of 666 subjects, we found severe malnutrition, undernutrition, normal weight, and overweight status in 1.7%, 4.8%, 88.6% and 4.8%, respectively. By multivariate analysis, risk factors for malnutrition were not having been weighed during the previous three months (OR 0.35; 95% CI 0.1 to 0.8 and having acute respiratory infection in the previous two weeks (OR 1.99; 95% CI 1.1 to 3.8 Conclusion One year following the 2006 earthquake, acute respiratory infection in the previous two weeks and unmonitored growth in the previous three months were risk factors for malnutrition in children under five years.

Seeking Information after the 2010 Haiti Earthquake: A Case Study in Mass-Fatality Management

Science.gov (United States)

Gupta, Kailash

2013-01-01

The 2010 earthquake in Haiti, which killed an estimated 316,000 people, offered many lessons in mass-fatality management (MFM). The dissertation defined MFM in seeking information and in recovery, preservation, identification, and disposition of human remains. Specifically, it examined how mass fatalities were managed in Haiti, how affected…

Keeping focus on earthquakes at school for seismic risk mitigation of the next generations

Science.gov (United States)

Saraò, Angela; Barnaba, Carla; Peruzza, Laura

2013-04-01

The knowledge of the seismic history of its own territory, the understanding of physical phenomena in response to an earthquake, the changes in the cultural heritage following a strong earthquake, the learning of actions to be taken during and after an earthquake, are piece of information that contribute to keep focus on the seismic hazard and to implement strategies for seismic risk mitigation. The training of new generations, today more than ever subject to rapid forgetting of past events, becomes therefore a key element to increase the perception that earthquakes happened and can happen at anytime and that mitigation actions are the only means to ensure the safety and to reduce damages and human losses. Since several years our institute (OGS) is involved in activities to raise awareness of education on earthquake. We aim to implement education programs with the goal of addressing a critical approach to seismic hazard reduction, differentiating the types of activities according to the age of the students. However, being such kind of activity unfunded, we can act at now only on a very limited number of schools per year. To be effective, the inclusion of the seismic risk issues in school curricula requires specific time and appropriate approaches when planning activities. For this reason, we involve also the teachers as proponents of activities and we encourage them to keep alive memories and discussion on earthquake in the classes. During the past years we acted mainly in the schools of the Friuli Venezia Giulia area (NE Italy), that is an earthquake prone area struck in 1976 by a destructive seismic event (Ms=6.5). We organized short training courses for teachers, we lectured classes, and we led laboratory activities with students. Indeed, being well known that students enjoy classes more when visual and active learning are joined, we propose a program that is composed by seminars, demonstrations and hands-on activities in the classrooms; for high school students

Modeling, Forecasting and Mitigating Extreme Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Le Mouel, J.; Soloviev, A.

2012-12-01

Recent earthquake disasters highlighted the importance of multi- and trans-disciplinary studies of earthquake risk. A major component of earthquake disaster risk analysis is hazards research, which should cover not only a traditional assessment of ground shaking, but also studies of geodetic, paleoseismic, geomagnetic, hydrological, deep drilling and other geophysical and geological observations together with comprehensive modeling of earthquakes and forecasting extreme events. Extreme earthquakes (large magnitude and rare events) are manifestations of complex behavior of the lithosphere structured as a hierarchical system of blocks of different sizes. Understanding of physics and dynamics of the extreme events comes from observations, measurements and modeling. A quantitative approach to simulate earthquakes in models of fault dynamics will be presented. The models reproduce basic features of the observed seismicity (e.g., the frequency-magnitude relationship, clustering of earthquakes, occurrence of extreme seismic events). They provide a link between geodynamic processes and seismicity, allow studying extreme events, influence of fault network properties on seismic patterns and seismic cycles, and assist, in a broader sense, in earthquake forecast modeling. Some aspects of predictability of large earthquakes (how well can large earthquakes be predicted today?) will be also discussed along with possibilities in mitigation of earthquake disasters (e.g., on 'inverse' forensic investigations of earthquake disasters).

Major earthquakes of the past decade (2000-2010): a comparative review of various aspects of management.

Science.gov (United States)

Kalantar Motamedi, Mohammad Hosein; Sagafinia, Masoud; Ebrahimi, Ali; Shams, Ehsan; Kalantar Motamedi, Mostafa

2012-01-01

This article sought to review and compare data of major earthquakes of the past decade and their aftermath in order to compare the magnitude, death toll, type of injuries, management procedures, extent of destruction and effectiveness of relief efforts. A retrospective study of the various aspects of management and aftermath of 5 major earthquakes of the past decade (2000-2010) was undertaken. This included earthquakes occurring in Bam Iran, Sichuan China, Port-au-Prince Haiti, Kashmir Pakistan and Ica Peru. A literature search was done via computer of published articles (indexed in Pubmed). The issues assessed included: 1)Local magnitude,2)Type of building structure 3)Time of the earthquake (day/time/season), 4)Time to rescue, 5)Triage, Transfer, and Treatment 6) Distribution of casualties (dead/ injured), 7)Degree of city damage, 8)Degree of damage to health facilities, 9)Field hospital availability, 10)International aid, 11)Air transfer, 12) Telecommunication systems availability, 13) PTSD prevalence, 14) Most common injury and 15) Most common disease outbreak. The Bam earthquake had the lowest (6.6 Richter's) and the Sichuan earthquake had the greatest magnitude (8.0 Richter's). Mortality in Haiti was 212,000 and it was the deadliest earthquake of the past decade. Collapse of heavy clay roofing structures was a major cause of death in Iran and Pakistan. Earthquakes occurring at night and nonworking days carried a high death toll. The time to rescue and treat was the lengthiest in Haiti (possibly contributing to the death to injured ratio). However, the worst dead to injured ratios were in Bam (51%) and in Pakistan (47%); the best ratio was in China (15%). Iran and Pakistan suffered the highest percentage of damage to the health facilities (90%). Field hospital availability, international aid and air transfer were important issues. Telecommunication systems were best in China and worst in Pakistan. PTSD prevalence was highest in Iran. Respiratory infection was

Crowdsourced earthquake early warning

Science.gov (United States)

Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.

2015-01-01

Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing.

The wicked problem of earthquake hazard in developing countries: the example of Bangladesh

Science.gov (United States)

Steckler, M. S.; Akhter, S. H.; Stein, S.; Seeber, L.

2017-12-01

Many developing nations in earthquake-prone areas confront a tough problem: how much of their limited resources to use mitigating earthquake hazards? This decision is difficult because it is unclear when an infrequent major earthquake may happen, how big it could be, and how much harm it may cause. This issue faces nations with profound immediate needs and ongoing rapid urbanization. Earthquake hazard mitigation in Bangladesh is a wicked problem. It is the world's most densely populated nation, with 160 million people in an area the size of Iowa. Complex geology and sparse data make assessing a possibly-large earthquake hazard difficult. Hence it is hard to decide how much of the limited resources available should be used for earthquake hazard mitigation, given other more immediate needs. Per capita GDP is $1200, so Bangladesh is committed to economic growth and resources are needed to address many critical challenges and hazards. In their subtropical environment, rural Bangladeshis traditionally relied on modest mud or bamboo homes. Their rapidly growing, crowded capital, Dhaka, is filled with multistory concrete buildings likely to be vulnerable to earthquakes. The risk is compounded by the potential collapse of services and accessibility after a major temblor. However, extensive construction as the population shifts from rural to urban provides opportunity for earthquake-risk reduction. While this situation seems daunting, it is not hopeless. Robust risk management is practical, even for developing nations. It involves recognizing uncertainties and developing policies that should give a reasonable outcome for a range of the possible hazard and loss scenarios. Over decades, Bangladesh has achieved a thousandfold reduction in risk from tropical cyclones by building shelters and setting up a warning system. Similar efforts are underway for earthquakes. Smart investments can be very effective, even if modest. Hence, we suggest strategies consistent with high

Risk management.

Science.gov (United States)

Chambers, David W

2010-01-01

Every plan contains risk. To proceed without planning some means of managing that risk is to court failure. The basic logic of risk is explained. It consists in identifying a threshold where some corrective action is necessary, the probability of exceeding that threshold, and the attendant cost should the undesired outcome occur. This is the probable cost of failure. Various risk categories in dentistry are identified, including lack of liquidity; poor quality; equipment or procedure failures; employee slips; competitive environments; new regulations; unreliable suppliers, partners, and patients; and threats to one's reputation. It is prudent to make investments in risk management to the extent that the cost of managing the risk is less than the probable loss due to risk failure and when risk management strategies can be matched to type of risk. Four risk management strategies are discussed: insurance, reducing the probability of failure, reducing the costs of failure, and learning. A risk management accounting of the financial meltdown of October 2008 is provided.

The association between exposure and psychological health in earthquake survivors from the Longmen Shan Fault area: the mediating effect of risk perception

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiuping Xu

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In this study, exposure refers to survivors who suffered from life-changing situations, such as personal injuries, the deaths or injury of family members, relatives or friends or the loss of or damage to personal or family property, as a result of the earthquake. The mediating effect of risk perception on the exposure and psychological health in survivors from the Longmen Shan Fault area and the moderating effect of social support on the relationship between risk perception and psychological health were both examined. Method A cross-sectional survey was conducted in a local Longmen Shan Fault area near the epicenter of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (DSM-IV, the standard Chinese 12-item Short Form (SF-12v2, and the Social Support Rating Scale (SSRS were used to interview 2,080 earthquake survivors in the period one-year after the earthquake. Based on the environment and the characteristics of the Longmen Shan Fault area, a risk perception questionnaire was developed to evaluate survivor risk perception. Factor and regression analyses were conducted to determine the hypothetical relations. Results The analyses provided effective support for the hypothesized model. Survivor risk perception was classified into direct risk perception and indirect risk perception. Survivor direct risk perception was found to play a partial mediating role in the relationship between exposure and the two domains (Physical component summary (PCS and the Mental component summary (MCS of psychological health. Survivor indirect risk perception was found to have a only partial mediating effect on the association between exposure and MCS. Social support was found to moderate the influence of risk perception on psychological health. Conclusion Risk communication should be considered in future post-earthquake psychological assistance programs and social support strategies could also be

Risk management

OpenAIRE

Mcmanus, John

2009-01-01

Few projects are completed on time, on budget, and to their original requirement or specifications. Focusing on what project managers need to know about risk in the pursuit of delivering projects, Risk Management covers key components of the risk management process and the software development process, as well as best practices for risk identification, risk planning, and risk analysis. The book examines risk planning, risk analysis responses to risk, the tracking and modelling of risks, intel...

Science-Driven Approach to Disaster Risk and Crisis Management

Science.gov (United States)

Ismail-Zadeh, A.

2014-12-01

Disasters due to natural extreme events continue to grow in number and intensity. Disaster risk and crisis management requires long-term planning, and to undertake that planning, a science-driven approach is needed to understand and assess disaster risks and to help in impact assessment and in recovery processes after a disaster. Science is used in assessments and rapid modeling of the disaster impact, in forecasting triggered hazards and risk (e.g., a tsunami or a landslide after a large earthquake), in contacts with and medical treatment of the affected population, and in some other actions. At the stage of response to disaster, science helps to analyze routinely the disaster happened (e.g., the physical processes led to this extreme event; hidden vulnerabilities; etc.) At the stage of recovery, natural scientists improve the existing regional hazard assessments; engineers try to use new science to produce new materials and technologies to make safer houses and infrastructure. At the stage of disaster risk mitigation new scientific methods and approaches are being developed to study natural extreme events; vulnerability of society is periodically investigated, and the measures for increasing the resilience of society to extremes are developed; existing disaster management regulations are improved. At the stage of preparedness, integrated research on disaster risks should be developed to understand the roots of potential disasters. Enhanced forecasting and early warning systems are to be developed reducing predictive uncertainties, and comprehensive disaster risk assessment is to be undertaken at local, regional, national and global levels. Science education should be improved by introducing trans-disciplinary approach to disaster risks. Science can help society by improving awareness about extreme events, enhancing risk communication with policy makers, media and society, and assisting disaster risk management authorities in organization of local and regional

Mathematical models for estimating earthquake casualties and damage cost through regression analysis using matrices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Urrutia, J D; Bautista, L A; Baccay, E B

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to develop mathematical models for estimating earthquake casualties such as death, number of injured persons, affected families and total cost of damage. To quantify the direct damages from earthquakes to human beings and properties given the magnitude, intensity, depth of focus, location of epicentre and time duration, the regression models were made. The researchers formulated models through regression analysis using matrices and used α = 0.01. The study considered thirty destructive earthquakes that hit the Philippines from the inclusive years 1968 to 2012. Relevant data about these said earthquakes were obtained from Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology. Data on damages and casualties were gathered from the records of National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council. This study will be of great value in emergency planning, initiating and updating programs for earthquake hazard reduction in the Philippines, which is an earthquake-prone country.

Prospect of future housing and risk of psychological distress at 1 year after an earthquake disaster.

Science.gov (United States)

Nakaya, Naoki; Nakamura, Tomohiro; Tsuchiya, Naho; Narita, Akira; Tsuji, Ichiro; Hozawa, Atsushi; Tomita, Hiroaki

2016-04-01

Since the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, many of the affected have been forced to live in temporary housing or at a relative's house. Special attention needs to be paid to the negative health impacts resulting from such changes in living conditions. This study examined the association between future housing prospects and the risk of psychological distress 1 year after the earthquake. In 2012, a questionnaire was completed by a cross-sectional study of people aged 20 years or older living in Shichigahama Town, Miyagi, northeastern Japan, an area that had been severely inundated by the tsunami. Future housing prospects post-earthquake were classified into four categories: already settled in permanent housing, moving to new housing, under consideration, or unable to make any plans. Psychological distress was evaluated using the Kessler 6 scale, defined as ≥5 points out of 24. We performed multiple logistic regression analyses adjusted for potential confounding factors. Of the 3614 individuals studied, subjects whose future housing was under consideration (odds ratio [OR] = 2.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.6-2.7, P prospects were under consideration and those who were unable to make any future housing plans were at a higher risk of psychological distress 1 year after the earthquake disaster. © 2015 The Authors. Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences © 2015 Japanese Society of Psychiatry and Neurology.

Making the Handoff from Earthquake Hazard Assessments to Effective Mitigation Measures (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Applegate, D.

2010-12-01

This year has witnessed a barrage of large earthquakes worldwide with the resulting damages ranging from inconsequential to truly catastrophic. We cannot predict when earthquakes will strike, but we can build communities that are resilient to strong shaking as well as to secondary hazards such as landslides and liquefaction. The contrasting impacts of the magnitude-7 earthquake that struck Haiti in January and the magnitude-8.8 event that struck Chile in April underscore the difference that mitigation and preparedness can make. In both cases, millions of people were exposed to severe shaking, but deaths in Chile were measured in the hundreds rather than the hundreds of thousands that perished in Haiti. Numerous factors contributed to these disparate outcomes, but the most significant is the presence of strong building codes in Chile and their total absence in Haiti. The financial cost of the Chilean earthquake still represents an unacceptably high percentage of that nation’s gross domestic product, a reminder that life safety is the paramount, but not the only, goal of disaster risk reduction measures. For building codes to be effective, both in terms of lives saved and economic cost, they need to reflect the hazard as accurately as possible. As one of four federal agencies that make up the congressionally mandated National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) develops national seismic hazard maps that form the basis for seismic provisions in model building codes through the Federal Emergency Management Agency and private-sector practitioners. This cooperation is central to NEHRP, which both fosters earthquake research and establishes pathways to translate research results into implementation measures. That translation depends on the ability of hazard-focused scientists to interact and develop mutual trust with risk-focused engineers and planners. Strengthening that interaction is an opportunity for the next generation

Project Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

Jr., R. F. Miles

1995-01-01

Project risk management is primarily concerned with performance, reliability, cost, and schedule. Environmental risk management is primarily concerned with human health and ecological hazards and likelihoods. This paper discusses project risk management and compares it to environmental risk management, both with respect to goals and implementation. The approach of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to risk management is presented as an example of a project risk management approach that is an extension to NASA NHB 7120.5: Management of Major System Programs and Projects.

An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor

2016-01-01

A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities' preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model's algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties.

The 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes: Cascading Geological Hazards and Compounding Risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katsuichiro Goda

2016-08-01

Full Text Available A sequence of two strike-slip earthquakes occurred on 14 and 16 April 2016 in the intraplate region of Kyushu Island, Japan, apart from subduction zones, and caused significant damage and disruption to the Kumamoto region. The analyses of regional seismic catalog and available strong motion recordings reveal striking characteristics of the events, such as migrating seismicity, earthquake surface rupture, and major foreshock-mainshock earthquake sequences. To gain valuable lessons from the events, a UK Earthquake Engineering Field Investigation Team (EEFIT was dispatched to Kumamoto, and earthquake damage surveys were conducted to relate observed earthquake characteristics to building and infrastructure damage caused by the earthquakes. The lessons learnt from the reconnaissance mission have important implications on current seismic design practice regarding the required seismic resistance of structures under multiple shocks and the seismic design of infrastructure subject to large ground deformation. The observations also highlight the consequences of cascading geological hazards on community resilience. To share the gathered damage data widely, geo-tagged photos are organized using Google Earth and the kmz file is made publicly available.

Nowcasting Earthquakes and Tsunamis

Science.gov (United States)

Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.

2017-12-01

The term "nowcasting" refers to the estimation of the current uncertain state of a dynamical system, whereas "forecasting" is a calculation of probabilities of future state(s). Nowcasting is a term that originated in economics and finance, referring to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy or market indicators such as GDP at the current time by indirect means. We have applied this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of a system of faults, and its current level of progress through the earthquake cycle (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EA000185/full). Advantages of our nowcasting method over forecasting models include: 1) Nowcasting is simply data analysis and does not involve a model having parameters that must be fit to data; 2) We use only earthquake catalog data which generally has known errors and characteristics; and 3) We use area-based analysis rather than fault-based analysis, meaning that the methods work equally well on land and in subduction zones. To use the nowcast method to estimate how far the fault system has progressed through the "cycle" of large recurring earthquakes, we use the global catalog of earthquakes, using "small" earthquakes to determine the level of hazard from "large" earthquakes in the region. We select a "small" region in which the nowcast is to be made, and compute the statistics of a much larger region around the small region. The statistics of the large region are then applied to the small region. For an application, we can define a small region around major global cities, for example a "small" circle of radius 150 km and a depth of 100 km, as well as a "large" earthquake magnitude, for example M6.0. The region of influence of such earthquakes is roughly 150 km radius x 100 km depth, which is the reason these values were selected. We can then compute and rank the seismic risk of the world's major cities in terms of their relative seismic risk

Near real-time aftershock hazard maps for earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

McCloskey, J.; Nalbant, S. S.

2009-04-01

Stress interaction modelling is routinely used to explain the spatial relationships between earthquakes and their aftershocks. On 28 October 2008 a M6.4 earthquake occurred near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border killing several hundred and causing widespread devastation. A second M6.4 event occurred 12 hours later 20km to the south east. By making some well supported assumptions concerning the source event and the geometry of any likely triggered event it was possible to map those areas most likely to experience further activity. Using Google earth, it would further have been possible to identify particular settlements in the source area which were particularly at risk and to publish their locations globally within about 3 hours of the first earthquake. Such actions could have significantly focused the initial emergency response management. We argue for routine prospective testing of such forecasts and dialogue between social and physical scientists and emergency response professionals around the practical application of these techniques.

Intensity earthquake scenario (scenario event - a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence) for the city of Sofia

Science.gov (United States)

Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria

2014-05-01

Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic risk to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The earthquake scenarios are intended as a basic input for developing detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earthquake-safe town and infrastructure planning. The city of Sofia is the capital of Bulgaria. It is situated in the centre of the Sofia area that is the most populated (the population is of more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The available historical documents prove the occurrence of destructive earthquakes during the 15th-18th centuries in the Sofia zone. In 19th century the city of Sofia has experienced two strong earthquakes: the 1818 earthquake with epicentral intensity I0=8-9 MSK and the 1858 earthquake with I0=9-10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK). Almost a century later (95 years) an earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 (I0=7-8 MSK) hit the city of Sofia, on May 22nd, 2012. In the present study as a deterministic scenario event is considered a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence that could affect the city with intensity less than or equal to VIII

The earthquake problem in engineering design: generating earthquake design basis information

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sharma, R.D.

1987-01-01

Designing earthquake resistant structures requires certain design inputs specific to the seismotectonic status of the region, in which a critical facility is to be located. Generating these inputs requires collection of earthquake related information using present day techniques in seismology and geology, and processing the collected information to integrate it to arrive at a consolidated picture of the seismotectonics of the region. The earthquake problem in engineering design has been outlined in the context of a seismic design of nuclear power plants vis a vis current state of the art techniques. The extent to which the accepted procedures of assessing seismic risk in the region and generating the design inputs have been adherred to determine to a great extent the safety of the structures against future earthquakes. The document is a step towards developing an aproach for generating these inputs, which form the earthquake design basis. (author)

How to provide risk information. Based on citizen's evaluation of messages concerning radiation protection and anti-earthquake measures of nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsuchiya, Tomoko; Kosugi, Motoko; Nakamura, Yasushi; Takahashi, Shigeaki; Harayama, Satoko

2009-01-01

The Framework for Nuclear Energy Policy in Japan, decided in 2005, requests implementation of risk communication to regain social trust on nuclear industry. Electric power companies, however, have few experiences of providing risk information as the first step of risk communication. This report analyzes which message is understandable, useful and trustworthy, by comparing two sets of different messages concerning radiation protection and anti-earthquake measures of nuclear power plant, respectively, based on interview survey for 30 people live in Tokyo metropolitan area. Participants in our survey evaluate the message about radiation protection including risk information is more reliable than one without risk information, but the former is less understandable and more anxious than the latter. In the case of messages regarding seismic measures of nuclear power plant, people are not satisfied with the argument which anti-earthquake measures are implemented, but want to know adequate grounds on which to admit that those measures are thorough. Another message of seismic measures we drafted contains basic knowledge about scales of earthquake, and shows that nuclear industry will consider bigger earthquake than ones in the past records, learn from past experience and improve their measures. 70% of participants assess this message more understandable, useful and trustworthy than the other to explain only seismic measures implemented. (author)

GIS BASED SYSTEM FOR POST-EARTHQUAKE CRISIS MANAGMENT USING CELLULAR NETWORK

OpenAIRE

Raeesi, M.; Sadeghi-Niaraki, A.

2013-01-01

Earthquakes are among the most destructive natural disasters. Earthquakes happen mainly near the edges of tectonic plates, but they may happen just about anywhere. Earthquakes cannot be predicted. Quick response after disasters, like earthquake, decreases loss of life and costs. Massive earthquakes often cause structures to collapse, trapping victims under dense rubble for long periods of time. After the earthquake and destroyed some areas, several teams are sent to find the location of the d...

LastQuake: a comprehensive strategy for rapid engagement of earthquake eyewitnesses, massive crowdsourcing and risk reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Bossu, R.; Roussel, F.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Steed, R.; Frobert, L.

2015-12-01

LastQuake is a smartphone app, browser add-on and the most sophisticated Twitter robot (quakebot) for earthquakes currently in operation. It fulfills eyewitnesses' needs by offering information on felt earthquakes and their effects within tens of seconds of their occurrence. Associated with an active presence on Facebook, Pinterest and on websites, this proves a very efficient engagement strategy. For example, the app was installed thousands of times after the Ghorka earthquake in Nepal. Language barriers have been erased by using visual communication; for example, felt reports are collected through a set of cartoons representing different shaking levels. Within 3 weeks of the magnitude 7.8 Ghorka earthquakes, 7,000 felt reports with thousands of comments were collected related to the mainshock and tens of its aftershocks as well as 100 informative geo-located pics. The QuakeBot was essential in allowing us to be identified so well and interact with those affected. LastQuake is also a risk reduction tool since it provides rapid information. Rapid information is similar to prevention since when it does not exist, disasters can happen. When no information is available after a felt earthquake, the public block emergency lines by trying to find out the cause of the shaking, crowds form potentially leading to unpredictable crowd movement, rumors spread. In its next release LastQuake will also provide people with guidance immediately after a shaking through a number of pop-up cartoons illustrating "do/don't do" items (go to open places, do not phone emergency services except if people are injured…). LastQuake's app design is simple and intuitive and has a global audience. It benefited from a crowdfunding campaign (and the support of the Fondation MAIF) and more improvements have been planned after an online feedback campaign organized in early June with the Ghorka earthquake eyewitnesses. LastQuake is also a seismic risk reduction tools thanks to its very rapid

A Strategy of Dialogue for Communicating Hazard and Risk Information Between the Science and Emergency Management Sectors

Science.gov (United States)

Eisner, R. K.

2015-12-01

This presentation will describe a collaborative dialogue process between earth scientists and emergency management officials that focused on translation of science into policy, building long term trust based relationships between sectors and unified presentation of hazards, risks and consequence management to public officials and the general public. The author will describe the structure and process of the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (CEPEC) in assessing the credibility of long and short term earthquake predictions, assessment of risk, and the formulation of public communication strategies and preparatory actions by government agencies. For nearly 4 decades, earth scientists, politically appointed state officials and emergency managers have engaged in ongoing discussions of the policy implications of research on potential seismic risk. Some discussions were scheduled and occurred over months, and others were ad hoc and occurred in the minutes between potential precursory incidents and possible large events. The effectiveness of this process was dependent on building respect for ones counterparts expertise, bias and responsibilities, clear communication of data, uncertainty and knowledge of the physical models assumed, history and probabilities; and the physical and political consequences of possible events; and the costs and economic and social disruption of alternative preparedness actions. But, the dialogue included political and social scientists, representatives of the print and broadcast media, political and management officials from federal, state and local governments. The presentation will provide an assessment of the effectiveness of the collaborative dialogue process and lessons on sustaining a long term partnership among the participating federal, state and local officials.

Applications of modelling historical catastrophic events with implications for catastrophe risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Sorby, A.; Grossi, P.; Pomonis, A.; Williams, C.; Nyst, M.; Onur, T.; Seneviratna, P.; Baca, A.

2009-04-01

The management of catastrophe risk is concerned with the quantification of financial losses, and their associated probabilities, for potential future catastrophes that might impact a region. Modelling of historical catastrophe events and, in particular, the potential consequences if a similar event were to occur at the present day can provide insight to help bridge the gap between what we know can happen from historical experience and what potential losses might be out there in the "universe" of potential catastrophes. The 1908 Messina Earthquake (and accompanying local tsunami) was one of the most destructive earthquakes to have occurred in Europe and by most accounts remains Europe's most fatal with over 70,000 casualties estimated. However, what would the potential consequences be, in terms of financial and human losses, if a similar earthquake were to occur at the present day? Exposures, building stock and populations can change over time and, therefore, the consequences of a similar earthquake at the present day may sensibly differ from those observed in 1908. The city of Messina has been reconstructed several times in its history, including following the 1908 earthquake and again following the Second World War. The 1908 earthquake prompted the introduction of the first seismic design regulations in Italy and since 1909 parts of the Messina and Calabria regions have been in the zones of highest seismic coefficient. Utilizing commercial catastrophe loss modelling technology - which combines the modelling of hazard, vulnerability, and financial losses on a database of property exposures - a modelled earthquake scenario of M7.2 in the Messina Straits region of Southern Italy is considered. This modelled earthquake is used to assess the potential consequences in terms of financial losses that an earthquake similar to the 1908 earthquake might have if it were to occur at the present day. Loss results are discussed in the context of applications for the financial

Defeating Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Stein, R. S.

2012-12-01

The 2004 M=9.2 Sumatra earthquake claimed what seemed an unfathomable 228,000 lives, although because of its size, we could at least assure ourselves that it was an extremely rare event. But in the short space of 8 years, the Sumatra quake no longer looks like an anomaly, and it is no longer even the worst disaster of the Century: 80,000 deaths in the 2005 M=7.6 Pakistan quake; 88,000 deaths in the 2008 M=7.9 Wenchuan, China quake; 316,000 deaths in the M=7.0 Haiti, quake. In each case, poor design and construction were unable to withstand the ferocity of the shaken earth. And this was compounded by inadequate rescue, medical care, and shelter. How could the toll continue to mount despite the advances in our understanding of quake risk? The world's population is flowing into megacities, and many of these migration magnets lie astride the plate boundaries. Caught between these opposing demographic and seismic forces are 50 cities of at least 3 million people threatened by large earthquakes, the targets of chance. What we know for certain is that no one will take protective measures unless they are convinced they are at risk. Furnishing that knowledge is the animating principle of the Global Earthquake Model, launched in 2009. At the very least, everyone should be able to learn what his or her risk is. At the very least, our community owes the world an estimate of that risk. So, first and foremost, GEM seeks to raise quake risk awareness. We have no illusions that maps or models raise awareness; instead, earthquakes do. But when a quake strikes, people need a credible place to go to answer the question, how vulnerable am I, and what can I do about it? The Global Earthquake Model is being built with GEM's new open source engine, OpenQuake. GEM is also assembling the global data sets without which we will never improve our understanding of where, how large, and how frequently earthquakes will strike, what impacts they will have, and how those impacts can be lessened by

Enterprise risk management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eaton, C. [Enbridge, Calgary, AB (Canada)

2015-07-01

Enterprise risk management (ERM) is a relative new, holistic and strategic approach for managing risks in modern organizations. ERM builds on and extends traditional risk management (RM). Risk is the effect of uncertainty on objectives - positive and/or negative. Risk management is a set of practices used to understand and address risk. ERM is a form of RM that emphasizes risk aggregation and integration. Risk aggregation is combining individual risks into categories ({sup r}olled up{sup )}. risk integration is embedding RM into organizational contexts ({sup b}uilt in{sup )}.

Tsunami disaster risk management capabilities in Greece

Science.gov (United States)

Marios Karagiannis, Georgios; Synolakis, Costas

2015-04-01

Greece is vulnerable to tsunamis, due to the length of the coastline, its islands and its geographical proximity to the Hellenic Arc, an active subduction zone. Historically, about 10% of all world tsunamis occur in the Mediterranean region. Here we review existing tsunami disaster risk management capabilities in Greece. We analyze capabilities across the disaster management continuum, including prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. Specifically, we focus on issues like legal requirements, stakeholders, hazard mitigation practices, emergency operations plans, public awareness and education, community-based approaches and early-warning systems. Our research is based on a review of existing literature and official documentation, on previous projects, as well as on interviews with civil protection officials in Greece. In terms of tsunami disaster prevention and hazard mitigation, the lack of tsunami inundation maps, except for some areas in Crete, makes it quite difficult to get public support for hazard mitigation practices. Urban and spatial planning tools in Greece allow the planner to take into account hazards and establish buffer zones near hazard areas. However, the application of such ordinances at the local and regional levels is often difficult. Eminent domain is not supported by law and there are no regulatory provisions regarding tax abatement as a disaster prevention tool. Building codes require buildings and other structures to withstand lateral dynamic earthquake loads, but there are no provisions for resistance to impact loading from water born debris Public education about tsunamis has increased during the last half-decade but remains sporadic. In terms of disaster preparedness, Greece does have a National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC) and is a Member of UNESCO's Tsunami Program for North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (NEAM) region. Several exercises have been organized in the framework of the NEAM Tsunami Warning

Comparison of two large earthquakes: the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake and the 2011 East Japan Earthquake.

Science.gov (United States)

Otani, Yuki; Ando, Takayuki; Atobe, Kaori; Haiden, Akina; Kao, Sheng-Yuan; Saito, Kohei; Shimanuki, Marie; Yoshimoto, Norifumi; Fukunaga, Koichi

2012-01-01

Between August 15th and 19th, 2011, eight 5th-year medical students from the Keio University School of Medicine had the opportunity to visit the Peking University School of Medicine and hold a discussion session titled "What is the most effective way to educate people for survival in an acute disaster situation (before the mental health care stage)?" During the session, we discussed the following six points: basic information regarding the Sichuan Earthquake and the East Japan Earthquake, differences in preparedness for earthquakes, government actions, acceptance of medical rescue teams, earthquake-induced secondary effects, and media restrictions. Although comparison of the two earthquakes was not simple, we concluded that three major points should be emphasized to facilitate the most effective course of disaster planning and action. First, all relevant agencies should formulate emergency plans and should supply information regarding the emergency to the general public and health professionals on a normal basis. Second, each citizen should be educated and trained in how to minimize the risks from earthquake-induced secondary effects. Finally, the central government should establish a single headquarters responsible for command, control, and coordination during a natural disaster emergency and should centralize all powers in this single authority. We hope this discussion may be of some use in future natural disasters in China, Japan, and worldwide.

Use of Ground Motion Simulations of a Historical Earthquake for the Assessment of Past and Future Urban Risks

Science.gov (United States)

Kentel, E.; Çelik, A.; karimzadeh Naghshineh, S.; Askan, A.

2017-12-01

Erzincan city located in the Eastern part of Turkey at the conjunction of three active faults is one of the most hazardous regions in the world. In addition to several historical events, this city has experienced one of the largest earthquakes during the last century: The 27 December 1939 (Ms=8.0) event. With limited knowledge of the tectonic structure by then, the city center was relocated to the North after the 1939 earthquake by almost 5km, indeed closer to the existing major strike slip fault. This decision coupled with poor construction technologies, led to severe damage during a later event that occurred on 13 March 1992 (Mw=6.6). The 1939 earthquake occurred in the pre-instrumental era in the region with no available local seismograms whereas the 1992 event was only recorded by 3 nearby stations. There are empirical isoseismal maps from both events indicating indirectly the spatial distribution of the damage. In this study, we focus on this region and present a multidisciplinary approach to discuss the different components of uncertainties involved in the assessment and mitigation of seismic risk in urban areas. For this initial attempt, ground motion simulation of the 1939 event is performed to obtain the anticipated ground motions and shaking intensities. Using these quantified results along with the spatial distribution of the observed damage, the relocation decision is assessed and suggestions are provided for future large earthquakes to minimize potential earthquake risks.

Applications of research from the U.S. Geological Survey program, assessment of regional earthquake hazards and risk along the Wasatch Front, Utah

Science.gov (United States)

Gori, Paula L.

1993-01-01

INTERACTIVE WORKSHOPS: ESSENTIAL ELEMENTS OF THE EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS RESEARCH AND REDUCTION PROGRAM IN THE WASATCH FRONT, UTAH: Interactive workshops provided the forum and stimulus necessary to foster collaboration among the participants in the multidisciplinary, 5-yr program of earthquake hazards reduction in the Wasatch Front, Utah. The workshop process validated well-documented social science theories on the importance of interpersonal interaction, including interaction between researchers and users of research to increase the probability that research will be relevant to the user's needs and, therefore, more readily used. REDUCING EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS IN UTAH: THE CRUCIAL CONNECTION BETWEEN RESEARCHERS AND PRACTITIONERS: Complex scientific and engineering studies must be translated for and transferred to nontechnical personnel for use in reducing earthquake hazards in Utah. The three elements needed for effective translation, likelihood of occurrence, location, and severity of potential hazards, and the three elements needed for effective transfer, delivery, assistance, and encouragement, are described and illustrated for Utah. The importance of evaluating and revising earthquake hazard reduction programs and their components is emphasized. More than 30 evaluations of various natural hazard reduction programs and techniques are introduced. This report was prepared for research managers, funding sources, and evaluators of the Utah earthquake hazard reduction program who are concerned about effectiveness. An overview of the Utah program is provided for those researchers, engineers, planners, and decisionmakers, both public and private, who are committed to reducing human casualties, property damage, and interruptions of socioeconomic systems. PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF EARTHQUAKE MITIGATION POLICIES ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT IN UTAH: The earthquake hazard potential along the Wasatch Front in Utah has been well defined by a number of scientific and

Earthquake damage to underground facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pratt, H.R.; Hustrulid, W.A.; Stephenson, D.E.

1978-11-01

The potential seismic risk for an underground nuclear waste repository will be one of the considerations in evaluating its ultimate location. However, the risk to subsurface facilities cannot be judged by applying intensity ratings derived from the surface effects of an earthquake. A literature review and analysis were performed to document the damage and non-damage due to earthquakes to underground facilities. Damage from earthquakes to tunnels, s, and wells and damage (rock bursts) from mining operations were investigated. Damage from documented nuclear events was also included in the study where applicable. There are very few data on damage in the subsurface due to earthquakes. This fact itself attests to the lessened effect of earthquakes in the subsurface because mines exist in areas where strong earthquakes have done extensive surface damage. More damage is reported in shallow tunnels near the surface than in deep mines. In mines and tunnels, large displacements occur primarily along pre-existing faults and fractures or at the surface entrance to these facilities.Data indicate vertical structures such as wells and shafts are less susceptible to damage than surface facilities. More analysis is required before seismic criteria can be formulated for the siting of a nuclear waste repository

NASA's Risk Management System

Science.gov (United States)

Perera, Jeevan S.

2011-01-01

Leadership is key to success. Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks -- risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

Science-based decision making in a high-risk energy production environment

Science.gov (United States)

Weiser, D. A.

2016-12-01

Energy production practices that may induce earthquakes require decisions about acceptable risk before projects begin. How much ground shaking, structural damage, infrastructure damage, or delay of geothermal power and other operations is tolerable? I review a few mitigation strategies as well as existing protocol in several U.S. states. Timely and accurate scientific information can assist in determining the costs and benefits of altering production parameters. These issues can also be addressed with probability estimates of adverse effects ("costs"), frequency of earthquakes of different sizes, and associated impacts of different magnitude earthquakes. When risk management decisions based on robust science are well-communicated to stakeholders, mitigation efforts benefit. Effective communications elements include a) the risks and benefits of different actions (e.g. using a traffic light protocol); b) the factors to consider when determining acceptable risk; and c) the probability of different magnitude events. I present a case example for The Geysers geothermal field in California, to discuss locally "acceptable" and "unacceptable" earthquakes and share nearby communities' responses to smaller and larger magnitude earthquakes. I use the USGS's "Did You Feel It?" data archive to sample how often felt events occur, and how many of those are above acceptable magnitudes (to both local residents and operators). Using this information, I develop a science-based decision-making framework, in the case of potentially risky earthquakes, for lessening seismic risk and other negative consequences. This includes assessing future earthquake probabilities based on past earthquake records. One of my goals is to help characterize uncertainties in a way that they can be managed; to this end, I present simple and accessible approaches that can be used in the decision making process.

A Cloud Computing Approach to Personal Risk Management: The Open Hazards Group

Science.gov (United States)

Graves, W. R.; Holliday, J. R.; Rundle, J. B.

2010-12-01

According to the California Earthquake Authority, only about 12% of current California residences are covered by any form of earthquake insurance, down from about 30% in 1996 following the 1994, M6.7 Northridge earthquake. Part of the reason for this decreasing rate of insurance uptake is the high deductible, either 10% or 15% of the value of the structure, and the relatively high cost of the premiums, as much as thousands of dollars per year. The earthquake insurance industry is composed of the CEA, a public-private partnership; modeling companies that produce damage and loss models similar to the FEMA HAZUS model; and financial companies such as the insurance, reinsurance, and investment banking companies in New York, London, the Cayman Islands, Zurich, Dubai, Singapore, and elsewhere. In setting earthquake insurance rates, financial companies rely on models like HAZUS, that calculate on risk and exposure. In California, the process begins with an official earthquake forecast by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities. Modeling companies use these 30 year earthquake probabilities as inputs to their attenuation and damage models to estimate the possible damage factors from scenario earthquakes. Economic loss is then estimated from processes such as structural failure, lost economic activity, demand surge, and fire following the earthquake. Once the potential losses are known, rates can be set so that a target ruin probability of less than 1% or so can be assured. Open Hazards Group was founded with the idea that the global public might be interested in a personal estimate of earthquake risk, computed using data supplied by the public, with models running in a cloud computing environment. These models process data from the ANSS catalog, updated at least daily, to produce rupture forecasts that are backtested with standard Reliability/Attributes and Receiver Operating Characteristic tests, among others. Models for attenuation and structural damage

Psychological Vulnerability and Earthquake Risk Perception in Bucharest/Romania

Science.gov (United States)

Romeo Cretu, Zeno; Armas, Iuliana; Stanciugelu, Irina

2010-05-01

The importance of studying the relationship with the natural hazard events from a psycho-social perspective is fundamental by the experience with past disasters as much as by the research in the field that proved that the people's psychologic structures may constitute a starting point for risk reduction. People's psycho-behavioural patterns contain conscious or unconscious references to the environmental risk, thus creating certain adjustment strategies and mechanisms, with a certain degree of psychological vulnerability. In modern man's case, the high level of awareness in front of natural dangers, doubled by the perception of the environment's unsafety, experienced as a lack of control, brings to attention nowadays the problematic of the analysis of natural risk perception, as a main factor in the adjustment of human communities' capacity of adapting to the natural environment's dynamics. The major objective of this present work is, based on the development of an efficient evaluation methodology, to identify specific relational patterns to seismic risk in Bucharest, function the characteristics of the urban environment, the social, economical and psychological vulnerability, with results that can be applied for disaster management. For explaining human reactions and the way in which they perceive and evaluate the psychological resources, on a daily basis, but also in risk situations (earthquakes), a multi-modal questionnaire was conceived through qualitative methods (a focus group, along with experts from the Public and Administrative Sciences National School, Risk Communication Center). The questionnaire was structured on a 49 items sequence, in which were included different type of questions (with single or multiple answers, open questions etc), and also questions using different scaling methods. The items caught cognitive elements (expectations, anticipations and negative or positive judgments regarding risk element), affective (feelings) and behavioral

NASA's Risk Management System

Science.gov (United States)

Perera, Jeevan S.

2013-01-01

Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks - not just risk office personnel. Each group/department is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. ? Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

Proposal of methodology of tsunami accident sequence analysis induced by earthquake using DQFM methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muta, Hitoshi; Muramatsu, Ken

2017-01-01

Since the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power station accident, the Japanese regulatory body has improved and upgraded the regulation of nuclear power plants, and continuous effort is required to enhance risk management in the mid- to long term. Earthquakes and tsunamis are considered as the most important risks, and the establishment of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies for these events is a major issue of current PRA. The Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) addressed the PRA methodology for tsunamis induced by earthquakes, which is one of the methodologies that should be enhanced step by step for the improvement and maturity of PRA techniques. The AESJ standard for the procedure of seismic PRA for nuclear power plants in 2015 provides the basic concept of the methodology; however, details of the application to the actual plant PRA model have not been sufficiently provided. This study proposes a detailed PRA methodology for tsunamis induced by earthquakes using the DQFM methodology, which contributes to improving the safety of nuclear power plants. Furthermore, this study also states the issues which need more research. (author)

Landslide maps and seismic noise: Rockmass weakening caused by shallow earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Uchida, Tara; Marc, Odin; Sens-Schönfelder, Christoph; Sawazaki, Kaoru; Hobiger, Manuel; Hovius, Niels

2015-04-01

Some studies have suggested that the shaking and deformation associated with earthquake would result in a temporary increased hillslope erodibility. However very few data have been able to clarify such effect. We present integrated geomorphic data constraining an elevated landslide rate following 4 continental shallow earthquakes, the Mw 6.9 Finisterre (1993), the Mw 7.6 ChiChi (1999), the Mw 6.6 Niigata (2004) and the Mw 6.8 Iwate-Miyagi (2008) earthquakes. We constrained the magnitude, the recovery time and somewhat the mechanism at the source of this higher landslide risk. We provide some evidences excluding aftershocks or rain forcing intensity as possible mechanism and leaving subsurface weakening as the most likely. The landslide data suggest that this ground strength weakening is not limited to the soil cover but also affect the shallow bedrock. Additionally, we used ambient noise autocorrelation techniques to monitor shallow subsurface seismic velocity within the epicentral area of three of those earthquakes. For most stations we observe a velocity drop followed by a recovery processes of several years in fair agreement with the recovery time estimated based on landslide observation. Thus a common processes could alter the strength of the first 10m of soil/rock and simultaneously drive the landslide rate increase and the seismic velocity drop. The ability to firmly demonstrate this link require additional constraints on the seismic signal interpretation but would provide a very useful tool for post-earthquake risk managment.

Earthquake and volcano hazard notices: An economic evaluation of changes in risk perceptions

Science.gov (United States)

Bernknopf, R.L.; Brookshire, D.S.; Thayer, M.A.

1990-01-01

Earthquake and volcano hazard notices were issued for the Mammoth Lakes, California area by the U.S. Geological Survey under the authority granted by the Disaster Relief Act of 1974. The effects on investment, recretion visitation, and risk perceptionsare explored. The hazard notices did not affect recreation visitation, although investment was affected. A perceived loss in the market value of homes was documented. Risk perceptions were altered for property owners. Communication of the probability of an event over time would enhance hazard notices as a policy instrument and would mitigate unnecessary market perturbations. ?? 1990.

Natural hazard management high education: laboratory of hydrologic and hydraulic risk management and applied geomorphology

Science.gov (United States)

Giosa, L.; Margiotta, M. R.; Sdao, F.; Sole, A.; Albano, R.; Cappa, G.; Giammatteo, C.; Pagliuca, R.; Piccolo, G.; Statuto, D.

2009-04-01

The Environmental Engineering Faculty of University of Basilicata have higher-level course for students in the field of natural hazard. The curriculum provides expertise in the field of prediction, prevention and management of earthquake risk, hydrologic-hydraulic risk, and geomorphological risk. These skills will contribute to the training of specialists, as well as having a thorough knowledge of the genesis and the phenomenology of natural risks, know how to interpret, evaluate and monitor the dynamic of environment and of territory. In addition to basic training in the fields of mathematics and physics, the course of study provides specific lessons relating to seismic and structural dynamics of land, environmental and computational hydraulics, hydrology and applied hydrogeology. In particular in this course there are organized two connected examination arguments: Laboratory of hydrologic and hydraulic risk management and Applied geomorphology. These course foresee the development and resolution of natural hazard problems through the study of a real natural disaster. In the last year, the work project has regarded the collapse of two decantation basins of fluorspar, extracted from some mines in Stava Valley, 19 July 1985, northern Italy. During the development of the course, data and event information has been collected, a guided tour to the places of the disaster has been organized, and finally the application of mathematical models to simulate the disaster and analysis of the results has been carried out. The student work has been presented in a public workshop.

Associating Factors With Public Preparedness Behavior Against Earthquake: A Review of Iranian Research Literature

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maryam Ranjbar

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Local preparedness against earthquakes has been recently highlighted in research and policies on disaster management and risk reduction promotion in Iran. To advance the understanding of public preparedness and how it can be applied in diverse localities, further information is required about the predictors of people’s adoption of mitigation activities and earthquake preparedness. A synthesis of the available published research results on earthquake preparedness and the influencing factors in Iran are presented in this literature review. It emphasizes the complexity of both the concept of preparedness and the contextual factors that mediate its adoption. The predominant roles of public awareness, trusted information resources, social capital and community collaboration as predictors are discussed. 

Fleeing to Fault Zones: Incorporating Syrian Refugees into Earthquake Risk Analysis along the East Anatolian and Dead Sea Rift Fault Zones

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, B.; Paradise, T. R.

2016-12-01

The influx of millions of Syrian refugees into Turkey has rapidly changed the population distribution along the Dead Sea Rift and East Anatolian Fault zones. In contrast to other countries in the Middle East where refugees are accommodated in camp environments, the majority of displaced individuals in Turkey are integrated into cities, towns, and villages—placing stress on urban settings and increasing potential exposure to strong shaking. Yet, displaced populations are not traditionally captured in data sources used in earthquake risk analysis or loss estimations. Accordingly, we present a district-level analysis assessing the spatial overlap of earthquake hazards and refugee locations in southeastern Turkey to determine how migration patterns are altering seismic risk in the region. Using migration estimates from the U.S. Humanitarian Information Unit, we create three district-level population scenarios that combine official population statistics, refugee camp populations, and low, median, and high bounds for integrated refugee populations. We perform probabilistic seismic hazard analysis alongside these population scenarios to map spatial variations in seismic risk between 2011 and late 2015. Our results show a significant relative southward increase of seismic risk for this period due to refugee migration. Additionally, we calculate earthquake fatalities for simulated earthquakes using a semi-empirical loss estimation technique to determine degree of under-estimation resulting from forgoing migration data in loss modeling. We find that including refugee populations increased casualties by 11-12% using median population estimates, and upwards of 20% using high population estimates. These results communicate the ongoing importance of placing environmental hazards in their appropriate regional and temporal context which unites physical, political, cultural, and socio-economic landscapes. Keywords: Earthquakes, Hazards, Loss-Estimation, Syrian Crisis, Migration

[Global risk management].

Science.gov (United States)

Sghaier, W; Hergon, E; Desroches, A

2015-08-01

Risk management is a fundamental component of any successful company, whether it is in economic, societal or environmental aspect. Risk management is an especially important activity for companies that optimal security challenge of products and services is great. This is the case especially for the health sector institutions. Risk management is therefore a decision support tool and a means to ensure the sustainability of an organization. In this context, what methods and approaches implemented to manage the risks? Through this state of the art, we are interested in the concept of risk and risk management processes. Then we focus on the different methods of risk management and the criteria for choosing among these methods. Finally we highlight the need to supplement these methods by a systemic and global approach including through risk assessment by the audits. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Insuring against earthquakes: simulating the cost-effectiveness of disaster preparedness.

Science.gov (United States)

de Hoop, Thomas; Ruben, Ruerd

2010-04-01

Ex-ante measures to improve risk preparedness for natural disasters are generally considered to be more effective than ex-post measures. Nevertheless, most resources are allocated after an event in geographical areas that are vulnerable to natural disasters. This paper analyses the cost-effectiveness of ex-ante adaptation measures in the wake of earthquakes and provides an assessment of the future role of private and public agencies in disaster risk management. The study uses a simulation model approach to evaluate consumption losses after earthquakes under different scenarios of intervention. Particular attention is given to the role of activity diversification measures in enhancing disaster preparedness and the contributions of (targeted) microcredit and education programmes for reconstruction following a disaster. Whereas the former measures are far more cost-effective, missing markets and perverse incentives tend to make ex-post measures a preferred option, thus occasioning underinvestment in ex-ante adaptation initiatives.

Seismic methodology in determining basis earthquake for nuclear installation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ameli Zamani, Sh.

2008-01-01

Design basis earthquake ground motions for nuclear installations should be determined to assure the design purpose of reactor safety: that reactors should be built and operated to pose no undue risk to public health and safety from earthquake and other hazards. Regarding the influence of seismic hazard to a site, large numbers of earthquake ground motions can be predicted considering possible variability among the source, path, and site parameters. However, seismic safety design using all predicted ground motions is practically impossible. In the determination of design basis earthquake ground motions it is therefore important to represent the influences of the large numbers of earthquake ground motions derived from the seismic ground motion prediction methods for the surrounding seismic sources. Viewing the relations between current design basis earthquake ground motion determination and modem earthquake ground motion estimation, a development of risk-informed design basis earthquake ground motion methodology is discussed for insight into the on going modernization of the Examination Guide for Seismic Design on NPP

Natural Time, Nowcasting and the Physics of Earthquakes: Estimation of Seismic Risk to Global Megacities

Science.gov (United States)

Rundle, John B.; Luginbuhl, Molly; Giguere, Alexis; Turcotte, Donald L.

2018-02-01

Natural Time ("NT") refers to the concept of using small earthquake counts, for example of M > 3 events, to mark the intervals between large earthquakes, for example M > 6 events. The term was first used by Varotsos et al. (2005) and later by Holliday et al. (2006) in their studies of earthquakes. In this paper, we discuss ideas and applications arising from the use of NT to understand earthquake dynamics, in particular by use of the idea of nowcasting. Nowcasting differs from forecasting, in that the goal of nowcasting is to estimate the current state of the system, rather than the probability of a future event. Rather than focus on an individual earthquake faults, we focus on a defined local geographic region surrounding a particular location. This local region is considered to be embedded in a larger regional setting from which we accumulate the relevant statistics. We apply the nowcasting idea to the practical development of methods to estimate the current state of risk for dozens of the world's seismically exposed megacities, defined as cities having populations of over 1 million persons. We compute a ranking of these cities based on their current nowcast value, and discuss the advantages and limitations of this approach. We note explicitly that the nowcast method is not a model, in that there are no free parameters to be fit to data. Rather, the method is simply a presentation of statistical data, which the user can interpret. Among other results, we find, for example, that the current nowcast ranking of the Los Angeles region is comparable to its ranking just prior to the January 17, 1994 Northridge earthquake.

NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Collins, John

2009-01-01

To facilitate the implementation of the Risk Management Plan, the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project has developed and employed an analytical software tool called the NGNP Risk Management System (RMS). A relational database developed in Microsoft(reg s ign) Access, the RMS provides conventional database utility including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. Additionally, the tool's design provides a number of unique capabilities specifically designed to facilitate the development and execution of activities outlined in the Risk Management Plan. Specifically, the RMS provides the capability to establish the risk baseline, document and analyze the risk reduction plan, track the current risk reduction status, organize risks by reference configuration system, subsystem, and component (SSC) and Area, and increase the level of NGNP decision making.

NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

John Collins

2009-09-01

To facilitate the implementation of the Risk Management Plan, the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project has developed and employed an analytical software tool called the NGNP Risk Management System (RMS). A relational database developed in Microsoft® Access, the RMS provides conventional database utility including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. Additionally, the tool’s design provides a number of unique capabilities specifically designed to facilitate the development and execution of activities outlined in the Risk Management Plan. Specifically, the RMS provides the capability to establish the risk baseline, document and analyze the risk reduction plan, track the current risk reduction status, organize risks by reference configuration system, subsystem, and component (SSC) and Area, and increase the level of NGNP decision making.

The management object in risk management approaches

OpenAIRE

Christiansen, Ulrik

2013-01-01

Using a systematic review of the last 55 years of research within risk management this paper explores how risk management as a management technology (methodologies, tools and frameworks to mitigate or manage risks) singles out risks as an object for management in order to make action possible. The paper synthesise by developing a framework of how different views on risk management enable and constrain the knowledge about risk and thus frame the possibilities to measure, analyse an...

The Management Object in Risk Management Approaches

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christiansen, Ulrik

Using a systematic review of the last 55 years of research within risk management this paper explores how risk management as a management technology (methodologies, tools and frameworks to mitigate or manage risks) singles out risks as an object for management in order to make action possible....... The paper synthesise by developing a framework of how different views on risk management enable and constrain the knowledge about risk and thus frame the possibilities to measure, analyse and calculate uncertainty and risk. Inspired by social studies of finance and accounting, the paper finally develops...... three propositions that illustrate how the framing of risk establishes a boundary for how managers might understand value creation and the possible future and how this impacts the possible responses to risk....

Nuclear emergency preparedness and response in Japan. Risk management and communication regarding nuclear events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sato, Hajime

2011-01-01

Severe accidents at nuclear plants can result in long-standing and large-scale disasters encompassing wide areas. The public may have special concerns regarding these plants and radiation-related health risks. It has therefore been argued that risk communications efforts, along with rigid safety management of nuclear plants, are imperative to prevent such accidents, mitigate their impacts, and alleviate public concerns. This article introduces a set of laws, acts, codes, and guidelines concerning nuclear safety in Japan. In addition, the preparedness and mitigation plans and programs for dealing with nuclear accidents and possible disasters are also discussed. Furthermore, the ongoing accidents at the Fukushima nuclear power plants following the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, and the government response to them are presented. A set of points regarding the management and communications of power plant accidents are discussed. (author)

[The hazards of reconstruction: anthropology of dwelling and social health risk in the L'Aquila (Central Italy) post-earthquake].

Science.gov (United States)

Ciccozzi, Antonello

2016-01-01

Even starting from the purpose of restoring the damage caused by a natural disaster, the post-earthquake reconstructions imply the risk of triggering a set of social disasters that may affect the public health sphere. In the case of the L'Aquila earthquake this risk seems to emerge within the urban planning on two levels of dwelling: at a landscape level, where there has been a change in the shape of the city towards a sprawling-sprinkling process; at an architectural level, on the problematic relationship between the politics and the poetics of cultural heritage protection and the goal to get restoration works capable to ensure the citizens seismic safety.

Coping with Complex Environmental and Societal Flood Risk Management Decisions: An Integrated Multi-criteria Framework

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Love Ekenberg

2011-08-01

Full Text Available During recent years, a great deal of attention has been focused on the financial risk management of natural disasters. One reason behind is that the economic losses from floods, windstorms, earthquakes and other disasters in both the developing and developed countries are escalating dramatically. It has become apparent that an integrated water resource management approach would be beneficial in order to take both the best interests of society and of the environment into consideration. One improvement consists of models capable of handling multiple criteria (conflicting objectives as well as multiple stakeholders (conflicting interests. A systems approach is applied for coping with complex environmental and societal risk management decisions with respect to flood catastrophe policy formation, wherein the emphasis is on computer-based modeling and simulation techniques combined with methods for evaluating strategies where numerous stakeholders are incorporated in the process. The resulting framework consists of a simulation model, a decision analytical tool, and a set of suggested policy strategies for policy formulation. The framework will aid decision makers with high risk complex environmental decisions subject to significant uncertainties.

Assessing the Utility of and Improving USGS Earthquake Hazards Program Products

Science.gov (United States)

Gomberg, J. S.; Scott, M.; Weaver, C. S.; Sherrod, B. L.; Bailey, D.; Gibbons, D.

2010-12-01

A major focus of the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) has been the development and implementation of products and information meant to improve earthquake hazard assessment, mitigation and response for a myriad of users. Many of these products rely on the data and efforts of the EHP and its partner scientists who are building the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS). We report on a project meant to assess the utility of many of these products and information, conducted collaboratively by EHP scientists and Pierce County Department of Emergency Management staff. We have conducted focus group listening sessions with members of the engineering, business, medical, media, risk management, and emergency response communities as well as participated in the planning and implementation of earthquake exercises in the Pacific Northwest. Thus far we have learned that EHP and ANSS products satisfy many of the needs of engineers and some planners, and information is widely used by media and the general public. However, some important communities do not use these products despite their intended application for their purposes, particularly county and local emergency management and business communities. We have learned that products need to convey more clearly the impact of earthquakes, in everyday terms. Users also want products (e.g. maps, forecasts, etc.) that can be incorporated into tools and systems they use regularly. Rather than simply building products and posting them on websites, products need to be actively marketed and training provided. We suggest that engaging users prior to and during product development will enhance their usage and effectiveness.

Agile risk management

CERN Document Server

Moran, Alan

2014-01-01

This work is the definitive guide for IT managers and agile practitioners. It elucidates the principles of agile risk management and how these relate to individual projects. Explained in clear and concise terms, this synthesis of project risk management and agile techniques is illustrated using the major methodologies such as XP, Scrum and DSDM.Although the agile community frequently cites risk management, research suggests that risk is often narrowly defined and, at best, implicitly treated, which in turn leads to an inability to make informed decisions concerning risk and reward and a poor u

Lessons from the conviction of the L'Aquila seven: The standard probabilistic earthquake hazard and risk assessment is ineffective

Science.gov (United States)

Wyss, Max

2013-04-01

An earthquake of M6.3 killed 309 people in L'Aquila, Italy, on 6 April 2011. Subsequently, a judge in L'Aquila convicted seven who had participated in an emergency meeting on March 30, assessing the probability of a major event to follow the ongoing earthquake swarm. The sentence was six years in prison, a combine fine of 2 million Euros, loss of job, loss of retirement rent, and lawyer's costs. The judge followed the prosecution's accusation that the review by the Commission of Great Risks had conveyed a false sense of security to the population, which consequently did not take their usual precautionary measures before the deadly earthquake. He did not consider the facts that (1) one of the convicted was not a member of the commission and had merrily obeyed orders to bring the latest seismological facts to the discussion, (2) another was an engineer who was not required to have any expertise regarding the probability of earthquakes, (3) and two others were seismologists not invited to speak to the public at a TV interview and a press conference. This exaggerated judgment was the consequence of an uproar in the population, who felt misinformed and even mislead. Faced with a population worried by an earthquake swarm, the head of the Italian Civil Defense is on record ordering that the population be calmed, and the vice head executed this order in a TV interview one hour before the meeting of the Commission by stating "the scientific community continues to tell me that the situation is favorable and that there is a discharge of energy." The first lesson to be learned is that communications to the public about earthquake hazard and risk must not be left in the hands of someone who has gross misunderstandings about seismology. They must be carefully prepared by experts. The more significant lesson is that the approach to calm the population and the standard probabilistic hazard and risk assessment, as practiced by GSHAP, are misleading. The later has been criticized as

Strategic crisis and risk communication during a prolonged natural hazard event: lessons learned from the Canterbury earthquake sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Wein, A. M.; Potter, S.; Becker, J.; Doyle, E. E.; Jones, J. L.

2015-12-01

While communication products are developed for monitoring and forecasting hazard events, less thought may have been given to crisis and risk communication plans. During larger (and rarer) events responsible science agencies may find themselves facing new and intensified demands for information and unprepared for effectively resourcing communications. In a study of the communication of aftershock information during the 2010-12 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (New Zealand), issues are identified and implications for communication strategy noted. Communication issues during the responses included reliability and timeliness of communication channels for immediate and short decision time frames; access to scientists by those who needed information; unfamiliar emergency management frameworks; information needs of multiple audiences, audience readiness to use the information; and how best to convey empathy during traumatic events and refer to other information sources about what to do and how to cope. Other science communication challenges included meeting an increased demand for earthquake education, getting attention on aftershock forecasts; responding to rumor management; supporting uptake of information by critical infrastructure and government and for the application of scientific information in complex societal decisions; dealing with repetitive information requests; addressing diverse needs of multiple audiences for scientific information; and coordinating communications within and outside the science domain. For a science agency, a communication strategy would consider training scientists in communication, establishing relationships with university scientists and other disaster communication roles, coordinating messages, prioritizing audiences, deliberating forecasts with community leaders, identifying user needs and familiarizing them with the products ahead of time, and practicing the delivery and use of information via scenario planning and exercises.

Debris Flow Risk Management Framework and Risk Analysis in Taiwan, A Preliminary Study

Science.gov (United States)

Tsao, Ting-Chi; Hsu, Wen-Ko; Chiou, Lin-Bin; Cheng, Chin-Tung; Lo, Wen-Chun; Chen, Chen-Yu; Lai, Cheng-Nong; Ju, Jiun-Ping

2010-05-01

Taiwan is located on a seismically active mountain belt between the Philippine Sea plate and Eurasian plate. After 1999's Chi-Chi earthquake (Mw=7.6), landslide and debris flow occurred frequently. In Aug. 2009, Typhoon Morakot struck Taiwan and numerous landslides and debris flow events, some with tremendous fatalities, were observed. With limited resources, authorities should establish a disaster management system to cope with slope disaster risks more effectively. Since 2006, Taiwan's authority in charge of debris flow management, the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau (SWCB), completed the basic investigation and data collection of 1,503 potential debris flow creeks around Taiwan. During 2008 and 2009, a debris flow quantitative risk analysis (QRA) framework, based on landslide risk management framework of Australia, was proposed and conducted on 106 creeks of the 30 villages with debris flow hazard history. Information and value of several types of elements at risk (bridge, road, building and crop) were gathered and integrated into a GIS layer, with the vulnerability model of each elements at risk applied. Through studying the historical hazard events of the 30 villages, numerical simulations of debris flow hazards with different magnitudes (5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 years return period) were conducted, the economic losses and fatalities of each scenario were calculated for each creek. When taking annual exceeding probability into account, the annual total risk of each creek was calculated, and the results displayed on a debris flow risk map. The number of fatalities and frequency were calculated, and the F-N curves of 106 creeks were provided. For F-N curves, the individual risk to life per year of 1.0E-04 and slope of 1, which matched with international standards, were considered to be an acceptable risk. Applying the results of the 106 creeks onto the F-N curve, they were divided into 3 categories: Unacceptable, ALARP (As Low As Reasonable Practicable) and

What is the best use of 100 Euros to reduce the earthquake risk of a residential masonry building in a developed nation? Optimisation and Quantification of the benefits of risk reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Daniell, James; Schaefer, Andreas; Wenzel, Friedemann

2015-04-01

The average loss per building in developed countries like Australia or Switzerland due to earthquakes will be far in excess of 100€ over a political lifetime of 4 years (via a stochastic risk assessment). So a good question is, what can be done for 100€ and a bit of hard work, to strengthen and retrofit a URM (unreinforced masonry house). Of course much of the loss occurs in a few large events, but significant damage also occurs from more frequent smaller events. Using the CATDAT Damaging Earthquakes Database (Daniell et al., 2011), 57% of deaths from earthquakes have occurred in masonry buildings since 1900 globally. Thus, with a view towards life safety and the maximum return on investment, different options are tested and discussed for retrofitting the average brick house for earthquake resistance. Bolting and bracketing furniture, electrical equipment and valuables to walls, the removal or tying in of certain non-structural elements, as well as adjustments such as seismic wallpaper and reinforcement are tested from empirical and analytical experience from around the world. Of course, earthquakes are not the only main concern for developed nation populations, so a view as to the best use of the 100€ is looked at in combination with other disaster types. Insurance takeout and its implications are also discussed. The process is repeated for the D-A-CH (Germany, Austria and Switzerland) region in order to see the regional economic implications for widespread awareness of earthquake risks and losses. The risk reduction is quantified and is seen to be significant for nearly all of the D-A-CH region. This analysis has implications for developed and developing nations alike.

Legal analysis of citizen lawsuit toward management of the 2006 Yogyakarta earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Suprihadi, Bambang

2017-07-01

The Asian Disaster Reduction Center informed that on 27 May 2006 at 5:54 AM Local time or 26 May 2006 at 10:54:00 PM UTC, an M6.3 earthquake has struck the very highly populated region of Yogyakarta. The death estimated between 5,775 and 6,234 and the number of injured was between 46,000 and 53,000. Invitation letters were sent to Indonesia Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) and to 18 government institutions for attending the session at the Yogyakarta Court on 4 December 2006. Such case was a lawsuit proposed by 46 citizens and registered as number 73/PDT.G/ 2006/PN-Yk and the researcher attended court-session on behalf of the BMKG. Research is conducted to provide legal analysis of citizen lawsuit toward management of the 2006 Yogyakarta earthquake. Data was collected by examining the process of court sessions and mediation between Parties involved which then analysed using the relevant articles of Indonesian Civil Procedural Law. Legal analysis proposed by the researcher indicates that State Court (Pengadilan Negeri) held an `absolute competence' because such case shall not be settled by State Administrative Court (Pengadilan Tata Usaha Negara), however Yogyakarta District Court didn't hold a `relative competence' because such case shall be settled by the Central Jakarta District Court. Such case was not continued due to successful mediation between the two Parties. The 2006 Yogyakarta earthquake alerts BMKG as the earthquake information provider to work properly in accordance with the standard operating procedure to avoid citizen lawsuit that might be proposed in the near future.

Fragility analysis of flood protection structures in earthquake and flood prone areas around Cologne, Germany for multi-hazard risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Tyagunov, Sergey; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Munoz Jimenez, Cristina; Parolai, Stefano; Fleming, Kevin; Merz, Bruno; Zschau, Jochen

2013-04-01

The work presents a methodology for fragility analyses of fluvial earthen dikes in earthquake and flood prone areas. Fragility estimates are being integrated into the multi-hazard (earthquake-flood) risk analysis being undertaken within the framework of the EU FP7 project MATRIX (New Multi-Hazard and Multi-Risk Assessment Methods for Europe) for the city of Cologne, Germany. Scenarios of probable cascading events due to the earthquake-triggered failure of flood protection dikes and the subsequent inundation of surroundings are analyzed for the area between the gauges Andernach and Düsseldorf along the Rhine River. Along this river stretch, urban areas are partly protected by earthen dikes, which may be prone to failure during exceptional floods and/or earthquakes. The seismic fragility of the dikes is considered in terms of liquefaction potential (factor of safety), estimated by the use of the simplified procedure of Seed and Idriss. It is assumed that initiation of liquefaction at any point throughout the earthen dikes' body corresponds to the failure of the dike and, therefore, this should be taken into account for the flood risk calculations. The estimated damage potential of such structures is presented as a two-dimensional surface (as a function of seismic hazard and water level). Uncertainties in geometrical and geotechnical dike parameters are considered within the framework of Monte Carlo simulations. Taking into consideration the spatial configuration of the existing flood protection system within the area under consideration, seismic hazard curves (in terms of PGA) are calculated for sites along the river segment of interest at intervals of 1 km. The obtained estimates are used to calculate the flood risk when considering the temporal coincidence of seismic and flood events. Changes in flood risk for the considered hazard cascade scenarios are quantified and compared to the single-hazard scenarios.

Fundamentals of risk management understanding, evaluating and implementing effective risk management

CERN Document Server

Hopkin, Paul

2012-01-01

Now more than ever, organizations must plan, response and recognize all forms of risks that they face. "Fundamentals of Risk Management", now in its second edition, provides a comprehensive introduction to the subject of commercial and business risk for anyone studying for a career in risk as well as a broad range of risk professionals. It examines the key components of risk management and its application with examples to demonstrate its benefit to organisations in the public and private sector. The second edition has been completely updated to take into account the greater influence of ISO 3100, the emergence of Governance Risk and Compliance (GRC) and the wide use of the bowtie method to illustrate risk management. In addition, there is now a chapter on the skills and competencies required by an effective risk manager.

Rethinking risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kloman, H.F.

1992-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to bring together the ideas of those who currently practice the many different forms of risk management on a global basis. These forms include guidance of public policy on macro risks, risk financing and insurance for many larger commercial organizations, managing credit, currency and interest rate risks for financial institutions, plus other extensions of risk management including security, quality control, and quality assurance in a health-care environment

Earthquake hazard evaluation for Switzerland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ruettener, E.

1995-01-01

Earthquake hazard analysis is of considerable importance for Switzerland, a country with moderate seismic activity but high economic values at risk. The evaluation of earthquake hazard, i.e. the determination of return periods versus ground motion parameters, requires a description of earthquake occurrences in space and time. In this study the seismic hazard for major cities in Switzerland is determined. The seismic hazard analysis is based on historic earthquake records as well as instrumental data. The historic earthquake data show considerable uncertainties concerning epicenter location and epicentral intensity. A specific concept is required, therefore, which permits the description of the uncertainties of each individual earthquake. This is achieved by probability distributions for earthquake size and location. Historical considerations, which indicate changes in public earthquake awareness at various times (mainly due to large historical earthquakes), as well as statistical tests have been used to identify time periods of complete earthquake reporting as a function of intensity. As a result, the catalog is judged to be complete since 1878 for all earthquakes with epicentral intensities greater than IV, since 1750 for intensities greater than VI, since 1600 for intensities greater than VIII, and since 1300 for intensities greater than IX. Instrumental data provide accurate information about the depth distribution of earthquakes in Switzerland. In the Alps, focal depths are restricted to the uppermost 15 km of the crust, whereas below the northern Alpine foreland earthquakes are distributed throughout the entire crust (30 km). This depth distribution is considered in the final hazard analysis by probability distributions. (author) figs., tabs., refs

Thoracic Injuries in earthquake-related versus non-earthquake-related trauma patients: differentiation via Multi-detector Computed Tomography

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Zhi-hui; Yang, Zhi-gang; Chen, Tian-wu; Chu, Zhi-gang; Deng, Wen; Shao, Heng

2011-01-01

PURPOSE: Massive earthquakes are harmful to humankind. This study of a historical cohort aimed to investigate the difference between earthquake-related crush thoracic traumas and thoracic traumas unrelated to earthquakes using a multi-detector Computed Tomography (CT). METHODS: We retrospectively compared an earthquake-exposed cohort of 215 thoracic trauma crush victims of the Sichuan earthquake to a cohort of 215 non-earthquake-related thoracic trauma patients, focusing on the lesions and coexisting injuries to the thoracic cage and the pulmonary parenchyma and pleura using a multi-detector CT. RESULTS: The incidence of rib fracture was elevated in the earthquake-exposed cohort (143 vs. 66 patients in the non-earthquake-exposed cohort, Risk Ratio (RR) = 2.2; pchest (45/143 vs. 11/66 patients, RR = 1.9; ptraumas resulting from the earthquake were life threatening with a high incidence of bony thoracic fractures. The ribs were frequently involved in bilateral and severe types of fractures, which were accompanied by non-rib fractures, pulmonary parenchymal and pleural injuries. PMID:21789386

Knowledge management in support of enterprise risk management

OpenAIRE

Rodriguez, Eduardo; Edwards, John S.

2014-01-01

Risk management and knowledge management have so far been studied almost independently. The evolution of risk management to the holistic view of Enterprise Risk Management requires the destruction of barriers between organizational silos and the exchange and application of knowledge from different risk management areas. However, knowledge management has received little or no attention in risk management. This paper examines possible relationships between knowledge management constructs relate...

High resolution measurement of earthquake impacts on rock slope stability and damage using pre- and post-earthquake terrestrial laser scans

Science.gov (United States)

Hutchinson, Lauren; Stead, Doug; Rosser, Nick

2017-04-01

Understanding the behaviour of rock slopes in response to earthquake shaking is instrumental in response and relief efforts following large earthquakes as well as to ongoing risk management in earthquake affected areas. Assessment of the effects of seismic shaking on rock slope kinematics requires detailed surveys of the pre- and post-earthquake condition of the slope; however, at present, there is a lack of high resolution monitoring data from pre- and post-earthquake to facilitate characterization of seismically induced slope damage and validate models used to back-analyze rock slope behaviour during and following earthquake shaking. Therefore, there is a need for additional research where pre- and post- earthquake monitoring data is available. This paper presents the results of a direct comparison between terrestrial laser scans (TLS) collected in 2014, the year prior to the 2015 earthquake sequence, with that collected 18 months after the earthquakes and two monsoon cycles. The two datasets were collected using Riegl VZ-1000 and VZ-4000 full waveform laser scanners with high resolution (c. 0.1 m point spacing as a minimum). The scans cover the full landslide affected slope from the toe to the crest. The slope is located in Sindhupalchok District, Central Nepal which experienced some of the highest co-seismic and post-seismic landslide intensities across Nepal due to the proximity to the epicenters (<20 km) of both of the main aftershocks on April 26, 2015 (M 6.7) and May 12, 2015 (M7.3). During the 2015 earthquakes and subsequent 2015 and 2016 monsoons, the slope experienced rockfall and debris flows which are evident in satellite imagery and field photographs. Fracturing of the rock mass associated with the seismic shaking is also evident at scales not accessible through satellite and field observations. The results of change detection between the TLS datasets with an emphasis on quantification of seismically-induced slope damage is presented. Patterns in the

Hazus® estimated annualized earthquake losses for the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Jaiswal, Kishor; Bausch, Doug; Rozelle, Jesse; Holub, John; McGowan, Sean

2017-01-01

Large earthquakes can cause social and economic disruption that can be unprecedented to any given community, and the full recovery from these impacts may or may not always be achievable. In the United States (U.S.), the 1994 M6.7 Northridge earthquake in California remains the third costliest disaster in U.S. history; and it was one of the most expensive disasters for the federal government. Internationally, earthquakes in the last decade alone have claimed tens of thousands of lives and caused hundreds of billions of dollars of economic impact throughout the globe (~90 billion U.S. dollars (USD) from 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan China, ~20 billion USD from 2010 M8.8 Maule earthquake in Chile, ~220 billion USD from 2011 M9.0 Tohoku Japan earthquake, ~25 billion USD from 2011 M6.3 Christchurch New Zealand, and ~22 billion USD from 2016 M7.0 Kumamoto Japan). Recent earthquakes show a pattern of steadily increasing damages and losses that are primarily due to three key factors: (1) significant growth in earthquake-prone urban areas, (2) vulnerability of the older building stock, including poorly engineered non-ductile concrete buildings, and (3) an increased interdependency in terms of supply and demand for the businesses that operate among different parts of the world. In the United States, earthquake risk continues to grow with increased exposure of population and development even though the earthquake hazard has remained relatively stable except for the regions of induced seismic activity. Understanding the seismic hazard requires studying earthquake characteristics and locales in which they occur, while understanding the risk requires an assessment of the potential damage from earthquake shaking to the built environment and to the welfare of people—especially in high-risk areas. Estimating the varying degree of earthquake risk throughout the United States is critical for informed decision-making on mitigation policies, priorities, strategies, and funding levels in the

[Earthquakes in El Salvador].

Science.gov (United States)

de Ville de Goyet, C

2001-02-01

The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) has 25 years of experience dealing with major natural disasters. This piece provides a preliminary review of the events taking place in the weeks following the major earthquakes in El Salvador on 13 January and 13 February 2001. It also describes the lessons that have been learned over the last 25 years and the impact that the El Salvador earthquakes and other disasters have had on the health of the affected populations. Topics covered include mass-casualties management, communicable diseases, water supply, managing donations and international assistance, damages to the health-facilities infrastructure, mental health, and PAHO's role in disasters.

Gas injection may have triggered earthquakes in the Cogdell oil field, Texas.

Science.gov (United States)

Gan, Wei; Frohlich, Cliff

2013-11-19

Between 1957 and 1982, water flooding was conducted to improve petroleum production in the Cogdell oil field north of Snyder, TX, and a contemporary analysis concluded this induced earthquakes that occurred between 1975 and 1982. The National Earthquake Information Center detected no further activity between 1983 and 2005, but between 2006 and 2011 reported 18 earthquakes having magnitudes 3 and greater. To investigate these earthquakes, we analyzed data recorded by six temporary seismograph stations deployed by the USArray program, and identified 93 well-recorded earthquakes occurring between March 2009 and December 2010. Relocation with a double-difference method shows that most earthquakes occurred within several northeast-southwest-trending linear clusters, with trends corresponding to nodal planes of regional focal mechanisms, possibly indicating the presence of previously unidentified faults. We have evaluated data concerning injection and extraction of oil, water, and gas in the Cogdell field. Water injection cannot explain the 2006-2011 earthquakes, especially as net volumes (injection minus extraction) are significantly less than in the 1957-1982 period. However, since 2004 significant volumes of gases including supercritical CO2 have been injected into the Cogdell field. The timing of gas injection suggests it may have contributed to triggering the recent seismic activity. If so, this represents an instance where gas injection has triggered earthquakes having magnitudes 3 and larger. Further modeling studies may help evaluate recent assertions suggesting significant risks accompany large-scale carbon capture and storage as a strategy for managing climate change.

Report by the 'Mega-earthquakes and mega-tsunamis' subgroup; Rapport du sous-groupe Sismique 'Megaseismes et megatsunamis'

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Friedel, Jacques; Courtillot, Vincent; Dercourt, Jean; Jaupart, Claude; Le Pichon, Xavier; Poirier, Jean-Paul; Salencon, Jean; Tapponnier, Paul; Dautray, Robert; Carpentier, Alain; Taquet, Philippe; Blanchet, Rene; Le Mouel, Jean-Louis [Academie des sciences, 23, quai de Conti, 75006 Paris (France); BARD, Pierre-Yves [Observatoire des sciences de l' Univers de l' universite de Grenoble - OSUG, Universite Joseph Fourier, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble Cedex 9 (France); Bernard, Pascal; Montagner, Jean-Paul; Armijo, Rolando; Shapiro, Nikolai; Tait, Steve [Institut de physique du globe de Paris, 1, rue Jussieu - 75238 Paris cedex 05 (France); Cara, Michel [Ecole et Observatoire des sciences de la Terre de l' universite de Strasbourg - EOST, F-67084 Strasbourg cedex (France); Madariaga, Raul [Ecole normale superieure, 45, rue d' Ulm / 29, rue d' Ulm, F-75230 Paris cedex 05 (France); Pecker, Alain [Academie des technologies, Grand Palais des Champs Elysees - Porte C - Avenue Franklin D. Roosevelt - 75008 Paris (France); Schindele, Francois [CEA/DAM, DIF/DASE/SLDG, 91297 ARPAJON Cedex (France); Douglas, John [BRGM, 3 avenue Claude-Guillemin - BP 36009 - 45060 Orleans Cedex 2 (France)

2011-06-15

This report comprises a presentation of scientific data on subduction earthquakes, on tsunamis and on the Tohoku earthquake. It proposes a detailed description of the French situation (in the West Indies, in metropolitan France, and in terms of soil response), and a discussion of social and economic issues (governance, seismic regulation and nuclear safety, para-seismic protection of constructions). The report is completed by other large documents: presentation of data on the Japanese earthquake, discussion on prediction and governance errors in the management of earthquake mitigation in Japan, discussions on tsunami prevention, on needs of research on accelerometers, and on the seismic risk in France

Engineering models for catastrophe risk and their application to insurance

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Weimin

2002-06-01

Internationally earthquake insurance, like all other insurance (fire, auto), adopted actuarial approach in the past, which is, based on historical loss experience to determine insurance rate. Due to the fact that earthquake is a rare event with severe consequence, irrational determination of premium rate and lack of understanding scale of potential loss led to many insurance companies insolvent after Northridge earthquake in 1994. Along with recent advances in earth science, computer science and engineering, computerized loss estimation methodologies based on first principles have been developed to the point that losses from destructive earthquakes can be quantified with reasonable accuracy using scientific modeling techniques. This paper intends to introduce how engineering models can assist to quantify earthquake risk and how insurance industry can use this information to manage their risk in the United States and abroad.

Risk management overview

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McGovern, S.

1995-01-01

Launching of the first natural gas contract by the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in April 1990 was a huge success which allowed natural gas to surpass crude oil as the most successful launch of any commodity contract. Despite this unprecedented initial success it must be kept in mind that in a competitive marketplace there are risks of many kinds (market risks, price risks, basis risks, currency risks and timing risks), that parties must deal with in everyday operations. The concept of risk management was defined, techniques and issues in risk management were explained, a glossary of fully explained industry terms, and basic financial tools most often used in risk management, were provided. 11 figs

Earthquakes: Risk, Monitoring, Notification, and Research

Science.gov (United States)

2008-06-19

States are as much as 30% lower for certain types of ground motion, called long-period seismic waves, which affect taller , multistory buildings. Ground...jump between connected faults. Earthquakes that occur along the Sierra Madre Fault in southern California, for example, could trigger a series of

Tourism sector preparedness in zones with a high seismic risk: Case study of the Capital Region of Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Lihui, W.; Wang, D.

2017-12-01

Japan is a country highly vulnerable to natural disasters, especially earthquakes. Tourism, as a strategic industry in Japan, is especially vulnerable to destructive earthquake disasters owing to the characteristics of vulnerability, sensitivity and substitutability. Here we aim to provide theoretical understanding of the perception and responses of tourism managers towards damaging disasters in tourism destinations with high seismic risks. We conducted surveys among the mangers of tourism businesses in the capital area of Japan in 2014 and applied structural equation modeling techniques to empirically test the proposed model with four latent variables, which are risk perception, threat knowledge, disaster preparedness and earthquake preparedness. Our results show that threat knowledge affects risk perception and disaster preparedness positively. In addition, disaster preparedness positively affects earthquake preparedness. However, the proposed paths from risk perception to disaster preparedness, risk perception to earthquake preparedness, and threat knowledge to earthquake preparedness were not statistically significant. Our results may provide references for policymakers in promoting crisis planning in tourism destination with high seismic risks.

The Temblor mobile seismic risk app, v2: Rapid and seamless earthquake information to inspire individuals to recognize and reduce their risk

Science.gov (United States)

Stein, R. S.; Sevilgen, V.; Sevilgen, S.; Kim, A.; Jacobson, D. S.; Lotto, G. C.; Ely, G.; Bhattacharjee, G.; O'Sullivan, J.

2017-12-01

Temblor quantifies and personalizes earthquake risk and offers solutions by connecting users with qualified retrofit and insurance providers. Temblor's daily blog on current earthquakes, seismic swarms, eruptions, floods, and landslides makes the science accessible to the public. Temblor is available on iPhone, Android, and mobile web app platforms (http://temblor.net). The app presents both scenario (worst case) and probabilistic (most likely) financial losses for homes and commercial buildings, and estimates the impact of seismic retrofit and insurance on the losses and safety. Temblor's map interface has clickable earthquakes (with source parameters and links) and active faults (name, type, and slip rate) around the world, and layers for liquefaction, landslides, tsunami inundation, and flood zones in the U.S. The app draws from the 2014 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model and the 2014 USGS Building Seismic Safety Council ShakeMap scenari0 database. The Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR) model is used worldwide, with active faults displayed in 75 countries. The Temblor real-time global catalog is merged from global and national catalogs, with aftershocks discriminated from mainshocks. Earthquake notifications are issued to Temblor users within 30 seconds of their occurrence, with approximate locations and magnitudes that are rapidly refined in the ensuing minutes. Launched in 2015, Temblor has 650,000 unique users, including 250,000 in the U.S. and 110,000 in Chile, as well as 52,000 Facebook followers. All data shown in Temblor is gathered from authoritative or published sources and is synthesized to be intuitive and actionable to the public. Principal data sources include USGS, FEMA, EMSC, GEM Foundation, NOAA, GNS Science (New Zealand), INGV (Italy), PHIVOLCS (Philippines), GSJ (Japan), Taiwan Earthquake Model, EOS Singapore (Southeast Asia), MTA (Turkey), PB2003 (plate boundaries), CICESE (Baja California), California Geological Survey, and 20 other state

Resilience of aging populations after devastating earthquake event and its determinants - A case study of the Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Hung, Chih-Hsuan; Hung, Hung-Chih

2016-04-01

1.Background Major portions of urban areas in Asia are highly exposed and vulnerable to devastating earthquakes. Many studies identify ways to reduce earthquake risk by concentrating more on building resilience for the particularly vulnerable populations. By 2020, as the United Nations' warning, many Asian countries would become 'super-aged societies', such as Taiwan. However, local authorities rarely use resilience approach to frame earthquake disaster risk management and land use strategies. The empirically-based research about the resilience of aging populations has also received relatively little attention. Thus, a challenge arisen for decision-makers is how to enhance resilience of aging populations within the context of risk reduction. This study aims to improve the understanding of the resilience of aging populations and its changes over time in the aftermath of a destructive earthquake at the local level. A novel methodology is proposed to assess the resilience of aging populations and to characterize their changes of spatial distribution patterns, as well as to examine their determinants. 2.Methods and data An indicator-based assessment framework is constructed with the goal of identifying composite indicators (including before, during and after a disaster) that could serve as proxies for attributes of the resilience of aging populations. Using the recovery process of the Chi-Chi earthquake struck central Taiwan in 1999 as a case study, we applied a method combined a geographical information system (GIS)-based spatial statistics technique and cluster analysis to test the extent of which the resilience of aging populations is spatially autocorrelated throughout the central Taiwan, and to explain why clustering of resilient areas occurs in specific locations. Furthermore, to scrutinize the affecting factors of resilience, we develop an aging population resilience model (APRM) based on existing resilience theory. Using the APRM, we applied a multivariate

Investigation of risk management auditing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cao Lu

2012-01-01

2004, COSO published 'Enterprise Risk Management Framework', 2009, SASAC issued the 'central enterprise-wide risk management guidelines' to promote risk management within the formal state-owned enterprises in medium and large. Nuclear Group, which risk management in all branches to carry out the project homeopathic, and A Ⅱ will carry out risk management program as the first unit has accumulated more experience. This article from the perspective of internal control, based on the company's risk management practices carried out to try for the nuclear power enterprise risk management audit to describe and propose new ideas. Which expounds the significance of risk management, audit, risk management audit of the ways and means, for practical application of risk management audit of a representative summary of the issues and the ways and means to solve the problem of forward-looking recommendations. (authors)

RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Szabo Alina

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

Continuous Risk Management: An Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenberg, Linda; Hammer, Theodore F.

1999-01-01

Software risk management is important because it helps avoid disasters, rework, and overkill, but more importantly because it stimulates win-win situations. The objectives of software risk management are to identify, address, and eliminate software risk items before they become threats to success or major sources of rework. In general, good project managers are also good managers of risk. It makes good business sense for all software development projects to incorporate risk management as part of project management. The Software Assurance Technology Center (SATC) at NASA GSFC has been tasked with the responsibility for developing and teaching a systems level course for risk management that provides information on how to implement risk management. The course was developed in conjunction with the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University, then tailored to the NASA systems community. This is an introductory tutorial to continuous risk management based on this course. The rational for continuous risk management and how it is incorporated into project management are discussed. The risk management structure of six functions is discussed in sufficient depth for managers to understand what is involved in risk management and how it is implemented. These functions include: (1) Identify the risks in a specific format; (2) Analyze the risk probability, impact/severity, and timeframe; (3) Plan the approach; (4) Track the risk through data compilation and analysis; (5) Control and monitor the risk; (6) Communicate and document the process and decisions.

Stigma in science: the case of earthquake prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Joffe, Helene; Rossetto, Tiziana; Bradley, Caroline; O'Connor, Cliodhna

2018-01-01

This paper explores how earthquake scientists conceptualise earthquake prediction, particularly given the conviction of six earthquake scientists for manslaughter (subsequently overturned) on 22 October 2012 for having given inappropriate advice to the public prior to the L'Aquila earthquake of 6 April 2009. In the first study of its kind, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 17 earthquake scientists and the transcribed interviews were analysed thematically. The scientists primarily denigrated earthquake prediction, showing strong emotive responses and distancing themselves from earthquake 'prediction' in favour of 'forecasting'. Earthquake prediction was regarded as impossible and harmful. The stigmatisation of the subject is discussed in the light of research on boundary work and stigma in science. The evaluation reveals how mitigation becomes the more favoured endeavour, creating a normative environment that disadvantages those who continue to pursue earthquake prediction research. Recommendations are made for communication with the public on earthquake risk, with a focus on how scientists portray uncertainty. © 2018 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2018.

Agricultural risk management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, Mogens; Oksen, Arne; Larsen, Torben U.

2005-01-01

A new model for risk management in agriculture is described in the paper. The risk model is constructed as a context dependent process, which includes four main phases. The model is aimed at agricultural advisors, who wish to facilitate and disseminate risk management to farmers. It is developed...... and tested by an action research approach in an attempt to make risk management more applicable on family farms. Our obtained experiences indicate that farmers don’t apply probabilistic thinking and other concepts according to formal decision theory....

Managing in-country transportation risks in humanitarian supply chains by logistics service providers: Insights from the 2015 Nepal earthquake

OpenAIRE

Baharmand, Hossein; Comes, Tina; Lauras, Matthieu

2017-01-01

Humanitarian supply chains (HSCs) play a central role in effective and efficient disaster relief operations. Transportation has a critical share in HSCs and managing its risks helps to avoid further disruptions in relief operations. However, there is no common approach to or culture of risk management that its applicability has been studied through recent cases. This paper incorporates an empirical research design and makes a threefold contribution: first, it identifies in-country transportat...

Tsunami simulations of mega-thrust earthquakes in the Nankai–Tonankai Trough (Japan) based on stochastic rupture scenarios

KAUST Repository

Goda, Katsuichiro

2017-02-23

In this study, earthquake rupture models for future mega-thrust earthquakes in the Nankai–Tonankai subduction zone are developed by incorporating the main characteristics of inverted source models of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. These scenario ruptures also account for key features of the national tsunami source model for the Nankai–Tonankai earthquake by the Central Disaster Management Council of the Japanese Government. The source models capture a wide range of realistic slip distributions and kinematic rupture processes, reflecting the current best understanding of what may happen due to a future mega-earthquake in the Nankai–Tonankai Trough, and therefore are useful for conducting probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. A large suite of scenario rupture models is then used to investigate the variability of tsunami effects in coastal areas, such as offshore tsunami wave heights and onshore inundation depths, due to realistic variations in source characteristics. Such investigations are particularly valuable for tsunami hazard mapping and evacuation planning in municipalities along the Nankai–Tonankai coast.

Money matters: Rapid post-earthquake financial decision-making

Science.gov (United States)

Wald, David J.; Franco, Guillermo

2016-01-01

Post-earthquake financial decision-making is a realm beyond that of many people. In the immediate aftermath of a damaging earthquake, billions of dollars of relief, recovery, and insurance funds are in the balance through new financial instruments that allow those with resources to hedge against disasters and those at risk to limit their earthquake losses and receive funds for response and recovery.

RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

OpenAIRE

Szabo Alina

2012-01-01

Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in ...

Earthquake engineering development before and after the March 4, 1977, Vrancea, Romania earthquake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Georgescu, E.-S.

2002-01-01

At 25 years since the of the Vrancea earthquake of March, 4th 1977, we can analyze in an open and critical way its impact on the evolution of earthquake engineering codes and protection policies in Romania. The earthquake (M G-R = 7.2; M w = 7.5), produced 1,570 casualties and more than 11,300 injured persons (90% of the victims in Bucharest), seismic losses were estimated at more then USD 2 billions. The 1977 earthquake represented a significant episode of XXth century in seismic zones of Romania and neighboring countries. The INCERC seismic record of March 4, 1977 put, for the first time, in evidence the spectral content of long period seismic motions of Vrancea earthquakes, the duration, the number of cycles and values of actual accelerations, with important effects of overloading upon flexible structures. The seismic coefficients k s , the spectral curve (the dynamic coefficient β r ) and the seismic zonation map, the requirements in the antiseismic design norms were drastically, changed while the microzonation maps of the time ceased to be used, and the specific Vrancea earthquake recurrence was reconsidered based on hazard studies Thus, the paper emphasises: - the existing engineering knowledge, earthquake code and zoning maps requirements until 1977 as well as seismology and structural lessons since 1977; - recent aspects of implementing of the Earthquake Code P.100/1992 and harmonization with Eurocodes, in conjunction with the specific of urban and rural seismic risk and enforcing policies on strengthening of existing buildings; - a strategic view of disaster prevention, using earthquake scenarios and loss assessments, insurance, earthquake education and training; - the need of a closer transfer of knowledge between seismologists, engineers and officials in charge with disaster prevention public policies. (author)

Commodity risk management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hilary Till

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This article discusses the practical issues involved in applying a disciplined risk management methodology to commodity futures trading. Accordingly, the paper shows how to apply methodologies derived from both conventional asset management and hedge fund management to futures trading. The article also discusses some of the risk management issues that are unique to leveraged futures trading.

CAPRA - Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment: international initiative for risk management effectiveness

OpenAIRE

Cardona, Omar Darío; Ordaz, Mario G.; Reinoso, Eduardo; Yamín, Luis; Barbat Barbat, Horia Alejandro

2012-01-01

Understanding disaster risk due to hazard events, such as earthquakes, creates powerful incentives for countries to develop planning options and tools to reduce potential damages. This has been the reason why CAPRA, the risk evaluation model described in this paper, was developed with the technical and financial support of the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the International Strategy of United Nations for Disaster Reduction (ISDR). CAPRA is a techno-scientific metho...

Internal Audit and Risk Management

OpenAIRE

Constantin Nicolae Vasile; Alexandru Georgiana

2011-01-01

Internal audit and risk management have the same goal: the control of risk. There are various roles for the internal audit in respect of risk management. The main limitations of internal audit in respect of risk management regards assuming risk management tasks. One of the main issues regarding risk management is to make sure that the key risks are taken into consideration and that the management and the board of the organization take action as needed. Internal audit could give advice to mana...

Earthquake Early Warning: A Prospective User's Perspective (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Nishenko, S. P.; Savage, W. U.; Johnson, T.

2009-12-01

With more than 25 million people at risk from high hazard faults in California alone, Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) presents a promising public safety and emergency response tool. EEW represents the real-time end of an earthquake information spectrum which also includes near real-time notifications of earthquake location, magnitude, and shaking levels; as well as geographic information system (GIS)-based products for compiling and visually displaying processed earthquake data such as ShakeMap and ShakeCast. Improvements to and increased multi-national implementation of EEW have stimulated interest in how such information products could be used in the future. Lifeline organizations, consisting of utilities and transportation systems, can use both onsite and regional EEW information as part of their risk management and public safety programs. Regional EEW information can provide improved situational awareness to system operators before automatic system protection devices activate, and allow trained personnel to take precautionary measures. On-site EEW is used for earthquake-actuated automatic gas shutoff valves, triggered garage door openers at fire stations, system controls, etc. While there is no public policy framework for preemptive, precautionary electricity or gas service shutdowns by utilities in the United States, gas shut-off devices are being required at the building owner level by some local governments. In the transportation sector, high-speed rail systems have already demonstrated the ‘proof of concept’ for EEW in several countries, and more EEW systems are being installed. Recently the Bay Area Rapid Transit District (BART) began collaborating with the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) and others to assess the potential benefits of EEW technology to mass transit operations and emergency response in the San Francisco Bay region. A key issue in this assessment is that significant earthquakes are likely to occur close to or within the BART

Seismic Hazard Assessment for a Characteristic Earthquake Scenario: Probabilistic-Deterministic Method

Science.gov (United States)

mouloud, Hamidatou

2016-04-01

The objective of this paper is to analyze the seismic activity and the statistical treatment of seismicity catalog the Constantine region between 1357 and 2014 with 7007 seismic event. Our research is a contribution to improving the seismic risk management by evaluating the seismic hazard in the North-East Algeria. In the present study, Earthquake hazard maps for the Constantine region are calculated. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is classically performed through the Cornell approach by using a uniform earthquake distribution over the source area and a given magnitude range. This study aims at extending the PSHA approach to the case of a characteristic earthquake scenario associated with an active fault. The approach integrates PSHA with a high-frequency deterministic technique for the prediction of peak and spectral ground motion parameters in a characteristic earthquake. The method is based on the site-dependent evaluation of the probability of exceedance for the chosen strong-motion parameter. We proposed five sismotectonique zones. Four steps are necessary: (i) identification of potential sources of future earthquakes, (ii) assessment of their geological, geophysical and geometric, (iii) identification of the attenuation pattern of seismic motion, (iv) calculation of the hazard at a site and finally (v) hazard mapping for a region. In this study, the procedure of the earthquake hazard evaluation recently developed by Kijko and Sellevoll (1992) is used to estimate seismic hazard parameters in the northern part of Algeria.

Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

2016-07-15

Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of their high sensitivity to stress changes in the seismogenic zone. Episodic stress transfer to megathrust source faults leads to an increased probability of triggering huge earthquakes if the adjacent locked region is critically loaded. Careful and precise monitoring of slow earthquakes may provide new information on the likelihood of impending huge earthquakes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Hog Producers' Risk Management Attitudes and Desire for Additional Risk Management Education

OpenAIRE

Patrick, George F.; Peiter, Amy J.; Knight, Thomas O.; Coble, Keith H.; Baquet, Alan E.

2007-01-01

Hog producers in Indiana and Nebraska were surveyed about sources of risk, effectiveness of risk management strategies, and prior participation in and desire for additional risk management education. Ownership of hogs by the producer, size of the operation, and age did have significant effects on ratings of both sources of risk and effectiveness of risk management strategies. Probit analysis found age, prior attendance, knowledge and prior use of the tool, level of integration, and concern ab...

Implementation of equity in resource allocation for regional earthquake risk mitigation using two-stage stochastic programming.

Science.gov (United States)

Zolfaghari, Mohammad R; Peyghaleh, Elnaz

2015-03-01

This article presents a new methodology to implement the concept of equity in regional earthquake risk mitigation programs using an optimization framework. It presents a framework that could be used by decisionmakers (government and authorities) to structure budget allocation strategy toward different seismic risk mitigation measures, i.e., structural retrofitting for different building structural types in different locations and planning horizons. A two-stage stochastic model is developed here to seek optimal mitigation measures based on minimizing mitigation expenditures, reconstruction expenditures, and especially large losses in highly seismically active countries. To consider fairness in the distribution of financial resources among different groups of people, the equity concept is incorporated using constraints in model formulation. These constraints limit inequity to the user-defined level to achieve the equity-efficiency tradeoff in the decision-making process. To present practical application of the proposed model, it is applied to a pilot area in Tehran, the capital city of Iran. Building stocks, structural vulnerability functions, and regional seismic hazard characteristics are incorporated to compile a probabilistic seismic risk model for the pilot area. Results illustrate the variation of mitigation expenditures by location and structural type for buildings. These expenditures are sensitive to the amount of available budget and equity consideration for the constant risk aversion. Most significantly, equity is more easily achieved if the budget is unlimited. Conversely, increasing equity where the budget is limited decreases the efficiency. The risk-return tradeoff, equity-reconstruction expenditures tradeoff, and variation of per-capita expected earthquake loss in different income classes are also presented. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Comprehensive Health Risk Management after the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

Science.gov (United States)

Yamashita, S

2016-04-01

Five years have passed since the Great East Japan Earthquake and the subsequent Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident on 11 March 2011. Countermeasures aimed at human protection during the emergency period, including evacuation, sheltering and control of the food chain were implemented in a timely manner by the Japanese Government. However, there is an apparent need for improvement, especially in the areas of nuclear safety and protection, and also in the management of radiation health risk during and even after the accident. Continuous monitoring and characterisation of the levels of radioactivity in the environment and foods in Fukushima are now essential for obtaining informed consent to the decisions on living in the radio-contaminated areas and also on returning back to the evacuated areas once re-entry is allowed; it is also important to carry out a realistic assessment of the radiation doses on the basis of measurements. Until now, various types of radiation health risk management projects and research have been implemented in Fukushima, among which the Fukushima Health Management Survey is the largest health monitoring project. It includes the Basic Survey for the estimation of external radiation doses received during the first 4 months after the accident and four detailed surveys: thyroid ultrasound examination, comprehensive health check-up, mental health and lifestyle survey, and survey on pregnant women and nursing mothers, with the aim to prospectively take care of the health of all the residents of Fukushima Prefecture for a long time. In particular, among evacuees of the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant accident, concern about radiation risk is associated with psychological stresses. Here, ongoing health risk management will be reviewed, focusing on the difficult challenge of post-disaster recovery and resilience in Fukushima. Copyright © 2016 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparative risk assessments for the city of Pointe-à-Pitre (French West Indies): earthquakes and storm surge

Science.gov (United States)

Reveillere, A. R.; Bertil, D. B.; Douglas, J. D.; Grisanti, L. G.; Lecacheux, S. L.; Monfort, D. M.; Modaressi, H. M.; Müller, H. M.; Rohmer, J. R.; Sedan, O. S.

2012-04-01

In France, risk assessments for natural hazards are usually carried out separately and decision makers lack comprehensive information. Moreover, since the cause of the hazard (e.g. meteorological, geological) and the physical phenomenon that causes damage (e.g. inundation, ground shaking) may be fundamentally different, the quantitative comparison of single risk assessments that were not conducted in a compatible framework is not straightforward. Comprehensive comparative risk assessments exist in a few other countries. For instance, the Risk Map Germany project has developed and applied a methodology for quantitatively comparing the risk of relevant natural hazards at various scales (city, state) in Germany. The present on-going work applies a similar methodology to the Pointe-à-Pitre urban area, which represents more than half of the population of Guadeloupe, an overseas region in the French West Indies. Relevant hazards as well as hazard intensity levels differ from continental Europe, which will lead to different conclusions. French West Indies are prone to a large number of hazards, among which hurricanes, volcanic eruptions and earthquakes dominate. Hurricanes cause damage through three phenomena: wind, heavy rainfall and storm surge, the latter having had a preeminent role during the largest historical event in 1928. Seismic risk is characterized by many induced phenomena, among which earthquake shocks dominate. This study proposes a comparison of earthquake and cyclonic storm surge risks. Losses corresponding to hazard intensities having the same probability of occurrence are calculated. They are quantified in a common loss unit, chosen to be the direct economic losses. Intangible or indirect losses are not considered. The methodology therefore relies on (i) a probabilistic hazard assessment, (ii) a loss ratio estimation for the exposed elements and (iii) an economic estimation of these assets. Storm surge hazard assessment is based on the selection of

Certification and risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Villanueva Fernandez, M.

2015-01-01

Nowadays more organizations are increasingly aware of the importance of properly managing the uncertainty of its activities and build competitive advantages through the identification, assessment and management of risks that they face. Risk management is also an aspect of great importance within the new version of ISO fact it is one of the most innovative and also the most laborious, because an appropriate risk management achieves expected results and customer satisfaction. In conclusion, risk management is a new field of business and can be considered a cross-cutting component for other relevant factors of organizational change management. (Author)

Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes

OpenAIRE

Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

2016-01-01

Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of th...

FEMA's Earthquake Incident Journal: A Web-Based Data Integration and Decision Support Tool for Emergency Management

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, M.; Pitts, R.

2017-12-01

For emergency managers, government officials, and others who must respond to rapidly changing natural disasters, timely access to detailed information related to affected terrain, population and infrastructure is critical for planning, response and recovery operations. Accessing, analyzing and disseminating such disparate information in near real-time are critical decision support components. However, finding a way to handle a variety of informative yet complex datasets poses a challenge when preparing for and responding to disasters. Here, we discuss the implementation of a web-based data integration and decision support tool for earthquakes developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) as a solution to some of these challenges. While earthquakes are among the most well- monitored and measured of natural hazards, the spatially broad impacts of shaking, ground deformation, landslides, liquefaction, and even tsunamis, are extremely difficult to quantify without accelerated access to data, modeling, and analytics. This web-based application, deemed the "Earthquake Incident Journal", provides real-time access to authoritative and event-specific data from external (e.g. US Geological Survey, NASA, state and local governments, etc.) and internal (FEMA) data sources. The journal includes a GIS-based model for exposure analytics, allowing FEMA to assess the severity of an event, estimate impacts to structures and population in near real-time, and then apply planning factors to exposure estimates to answer questions such as: What geographic areas are impacted? Will federal support be needed? What resources are needed to support survivors? And which infrastructure elements or essential facilities are threatened? This presentation reviews the development of the Earthquake Incident Journal, detailing the data integration solutions, the methodology behind the GIS-based automated exposure model, and the planning factors as well as other analytical advances that

Risk management in Takaful

OpenAIRE

Akhter, Waheed

2010-01-01

Risk management is of vital importance in Islam and Takāful provides a way to manage risks in business according to Sharī’ah principles. This research paper attempts to identify various types of risks involved in Takāful business that affect operational and investment functions of Takāful operators across the globe. It lays down criteria for Takāful operator to manage those risks effectively. However, Takāful operators often face difficulty in managing market and credit risks as Sharī’ah comp...

Communicating Risk to Program Managers

Science.gov (United States)

Shivers, C. Herbert

2005-01-01

Program Managers (PM) can protect program resources and improve chances of success by anticipating, understanding and managing risks. Understanding the range of potential risks helps one to avoid or manage the risks. A PM must choose which risks to accept to reduce fire fighting, must meet the expectations of stakeholders consistently, and avoid falling into costly "black holes" that may open. A good risk management process provides the PM more confidence to seize opportunities save money, meet schedule, even improve relationships with people important to the program. Evidence of managing risk and sound internal controls can mean better support from superiors for the program by building a trust and reputation from being on top of issues. Risk managers have an obligation to provide the PM with the best information possible to allow the benefits to be realized (Small Business Consortium, 2004). The Institute for Chartered Accountants in England and Wales sees very important benefits for companies in providing better information about what they do to assess and manage key business risks. Such information will: a) provide practical forward-looking information; b) reduce the cost of capital; c) encourage better risk management; and d) improve accountability for stewardship, investor protection and the usefulness of financial reporting. We are particularly convinced that enhanced risk reporting will help listed companies obtain capital at the lowest possible cost (The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England &Wales, June 2002). Risk managers can take a significant role in quantifying the success of their department and communicating those figures to executive (program) management levels while pushing for a broader risk management role. Overall, risk managers must show that risk management work matters in the most crucial place-the bottom line- as they prove risk management can be a profit center (Sullivan, 2004).

Impact of the 2001 Tohoku-oki earthquake to Tokyo Metropolitan area observed by the Metropolitan Seismic Observation network (MeSO-net)

Science.gov (United States)

Hirata, N.; Hayashi, H.; Nakagawa, S.; Sakai, S.; Honda, R.; Kasahara, K.; Obara, K.; Aketagawa, T.; Kimura, H.; Sato, H.; Okaya, D. A.

2011-12-01

The March 11, 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake brought a great impact to the Tokyo metropolitan area in both seismological aspect and seismic risk management although Tokyo is located 340 km from the epicenter. The event generated very strong ground motion even in the metropolitan area and resulted severe requifaction in many places of Kanto district. National and local governments have started to discuss counter measurement for possible seismic risks in the area taking account for what they learned from the Tohoku-oki event which is much larger than ever experienced in Japan Risk mitigation strategy for the next greater earthquake caused by the Philippine Sea plate (PSP) subducting beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area is of major concern because it caused past mega-thrust earthquakes, such as the 1703 Genroku earthquake (M8.0) and the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M7.9). An M7 or greater (M7+) earthquake in this area at present has high potential to produce devastating loss of life and property with even greater global economic repercussions. The Central Disaster Management Council of Japan estimates that an M7+ earthquake will cause 11,000 fatalities and 112 trillion yen (about 1 trillion US$) economic loss. In order to mitigate disaster for greater Tokyo, the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area was launched in collaboration with scientists, engineers, and social-scientists in nationwide institutions. We will discuss the main results that are obtained in the respective fields which have been integrated to improve information on the strategy assessment for seismic risk mitigation in the Tokyo metropolitan area; the project has been much improved after the Tohoku event. In order to image seismic structure beneath the Metropolitan Tokyo area we have developed Metropolitan Seismic Observation network (MeSO-net; Hirata et al., 2009). We have installed 296 seismic stations every few km (Kasahara et al., 2011). We conducted seismic

Governmental management of chemical risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zimmerman, R.

1990-01-01

This book is organized under the following headings: risk management in the government context; legal and regulatory decrees and directives for managing chemical risk; incentive-based approaches for regulating risk; risk management in the federal system; and traditional approaches and new initiatives for managing chemical risk

Managing the risks of risk management on large fires

Science.gov (United States)

Donald G. MacGregor; Armando González-Cabán

2013-01-01

Large fires pose risks to a number of important values, including the ecology, property and the lives of incident responders. A relatively unstudied aspect of fire management is the risks to which incident managers are exposed due to organizational and sociopolitical factors that put them in a position of, for example, potential liability or degradation of their image...

Earthquake data base for Romania

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rizescu, M.; Ghica, D.; Grecu, B.; Popa, M.; Borcia, I. S.

2002-01-01

A new earthquake database for Romania is being constructed, comprising complete earthquake information and being up-to-date, user-friendly and rapidly accessible. One main component of the database consists from the catalog of earthquakes occurred in Romania since 984 up to present. The catalog contains information related to locations and other source parameters, when available, and links to waveforms of important earthquakes. The other very important component is the 'strong motion database', developed for strong intermediate-depth Vrancea earthquakes where instrumental data were recorded. Different parameters to characterize strong motion properties as: effective peak acceleration, effective peak velocity, corner periods T c and T d , global response spectrum based intensities were computed and recorded into this database. Also, information on the recording seismic stations as: maps giving their positioning, photographs of the instruments and site conditions ('free-field or on buildings) are included. By the huge volume and quality of gathered data, also by its friendly user interface, the Romania earthquake data base provides a very useful tool for geosciences and civil engineering in their effort towards reducing seismic risk in Romania. (authors)

Risk management in customs control

OpenAIRE

Drobot, Elena; Klevleeva, Aziza

2016-01-01

The particularities of risk-management system implementation within customs control are discussed in the article. The authors single out the elements of risk-management system, evaluate effectiveness of risk-management in customs control. The main reasons for non-implementation of risk-management system in customs control are described, as well. Particular attention is paid to the benefits of customs risk management.

Financial Risk Management

OpenAIRE

Catalin-Florinel Stanescu; Laurentiu Mircea Simion

2011-01-01

Concerns about the financial risk is increasing. In this climate, companies of all types and sizes want a robust framework for financial risk management to meet compliance requirements, contribute to better decision making and increase performance. Financial risk management professionals working with financial institutions and other corporate clients to achieve these objectives.

Evaluation of Earthquake-Induced Effects on Neighbouring Faults and Volcanoes: Application to the 2016 Pedernales Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Bejar, M.; Alvarez Gomez, J. A.; Staller, A.; Luna, M. P.; Perez Lopez, R.; Monserrat, O.; Chunga, K.; Herrera, G.; Jordá, L.; Lima, A.; Martínez-Díaz, J. J.

2017-12-01

It has long been recognized that earthquakes change the stress in the upper crust around the fault rupture and can influence the short-term behaviour of neighbouring faults and volcanoes. Rapid estimates of these stress changes can provide the authorities managing the post-disaster situation with a useful tool to identify and monitor potential threads and to update the estimates of seismic and volcanic hazard in a region. Space geodesy is now routinely used following an earthquake to image the displacement of the ground and estimate the rupture geometry and the distribution of slip. Using the obtained source model, it is possible to evaluate the remaining moment deficit and to infer the stress changes on nearby faults and volcanoes produced by the earthquake, which can be used to identify which faults and volcanoes are brought closer to failure or activation. Although these procedures are commonly used today, the transference of these results to the authorities managing the post-disaster situation is not straightforward and thus its usefulness is reduced in practice. Here we propose a methodology to evaluate the potential influence of an earthquake on nearby faults and volcanoes and create easy-to-understand maps for decision-making support after an earthquake. We apply this methodology to the Mw 7.8, 2016 Ecuador earthquake. Using Sentinel-1 SAR and continuous GPS data, we measure the coseismic ground deformation and estimate the distribution of slip. Then we use this model to evaluate the moment deficit on the subduction interface and changes of stress on the surrounding faults and volcanoes. The results are compared with the seismic and volcanic events that have occurred after the earthquake. We discuss potential and limits of the methodology and the lessons learnt from discussion with local authorities.

Evaluation of awareness and preparedness of school Principals and teachers on earthquake reduction effects issues - State's actions

Science.gov (United States)

Kourou, Assimina; Ioakeimidou, Anastasia; Mokos, Vasileios; Bakas, Konstantinos

2013-04-01

It is generally accepted that the effects of the disasters can be mainly reduced if people are aware, well informed and motivated towards a culture of disaster prevention and resilience. Particularly, in earthquake prone countries, a continuous update and education of the public, on earthquake risk management issues, is essential. Schools can play a crucial role concerning training and building a disaster prevention culture, among various community groups. Principals and teachers have a key role to play in any school-wide initiative through developing and reviewing awareness policy, developing and revising emergency response plans, holding emergency drills and training the students. During the last decade, the Greek State have done a lot of efforts in order to better educate teachers and students in disaster preparedness and management, such as: a. implementation of the E.P.P.O.'s educational project "Earthquake Protection at Schools" which is addressed mainly to school Principals. The project started right after the 1999 earthquake in Athens. b. publication of educational material for students, teachers and people with disabilities and publication of guidelines concerning the development of emergency plans. c. implementation of projects and elaboration of innovative and mobile experiential educational material connected with school curricula. The aim of the present study is to assess levels of awareness and preparedness concerning earthquake protection issues, as well as risk mitigation behaviours, undertaken by teachers at individual, family and workplace level. Furthermore, the assessment of teachers' current levels of earthquake awareness and preparedness, could lead to conclusions about the effectiveness of State's current Policy. In this framework, specific questionnaires were developed and were addressed to Principals and teachers who were responsible for the preparation of their School Emergency Preparedness Plans. The sample of the survey comprises of

Public perceptions and acceptance of induced earthquakes related to energy development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McComas, Katherine A.; Lu, Hang; Keranen, Katie M.; Furtney, Maria A.; Song, Hwansuck

2016-01-01

Growing awareness of the potential for some energy-related activities to induce earthquakes has created a need to understand how the public evaluates the risks of induced earthquakes versus the benefits of energy development. To address this need, this study presents a web survey that used a between-subjects factorial experimental design to explore the views of 325 U.S. adults, who were asked about their experiences with earthquakes; risk perceptions related to different causes of earthquakes (e.g., natural versus induced); and acceptability of earthquakes depending on the benefits, beneficiaries, and decision making process. The results found that participants had more negative feelings toward induced versus naturally occurring earthquakes. Although they judged no earthquake as “acceptable,” participants rated induced earthquakes significantly less acceptable than naturally occurring ones. Attributing the benefits to the provision of renewable energy or climate change mitigation did not increase induced earthquake acceptability, and no particular beneficiary made earthquakes more acceptable, although private companies as beneficiaries made earthquakes less acceptable. Finally, induced earthquake acceptability was significantly higher when people believed that people like them had a voice in the decision to implement the technology that caused the earthquake, underscoring the importance of public engagement in the development of energy technologies. - Highlights: • Human induced earthquakes were perceived as more negative than natural earthquakes. • Attributing benefits to renewable energy did not increase earthquake acceptability. • Acceptability was highest after a procedurally fair decision making process. • Acceptability was lowest following an expert-driven decision.

Earthquake Triggering in the September 2017 Mexican Earthquake Sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Fielding, E. J.; Gombert, B.; Duputel, Z.; Huang, M. H.; Liang, C.; Bekaert, D. P.; Moore, A. W.; Liu, Z.; Ampuero, J. P.

2017-12-01

Southern Mexico was struck by four earthquakes with Mw > 6 and numerous smaller earthquakes in September 2017, starting with the 8 September Mw 8.2 Tehuantepec earthquake beneath the Gulf of Tehuantepec offshore Chiapas and Oaxaca. We study whether this M8.2 earthquake triggered the three subsequent large M>6 quakes in southern Mexico to improve understanding of earthquake interactions and time-dependent risk. All four large earthquakes were extensional despite the the subduction of the Cocos plate. The traditional definition of aftershocks: likely an aftershock if it occurs within two rupture lengths of the main shock soon afterwards. Two Mw 6.1 earthquakes, one half an hour after the M8.2 beneath the Tehuantepec gulf and one on 23 September near Ixtepec in Oaxaca, both fit as traditional aftershocks, within 200 km of the main rupture. The 19 September Mw 7.1 Puebla earthquake was 600 km away from the M8.2 shock, outside the standard aftershock zone. Geodetic measurements from interferometric analysis of synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and time-series analysis of GPS station data constrain finite fault total slip models for the M8.2, M7.1, and M6.1 Ixtepec earthquakes. The early M6.1 aftershock was too close in time and space to the M8.2 to measure with InSAR or GPS. We analyzed InSAR data from Copernicus Sentinel-1A and -1B satellites and JAXA ALOS-2 satellite. Our preliminary geodetic slip model for the M8.2 quake shows significant slip extended > 150 km NW from the hypocenter, longer than slip in the v1 finite-fault model (FFM) from teleseismic waveforms posted by G. Hayes at USGS NEIC. Our slip model for the M7.1 earthquake is similar to the v2 NEIC FFM. Interferograms for the M6.1 Ixtepec quake confirm the shallow depth in the upper-plate crust and show centroid is about 30 km SW of the NEIC epicenter, a significant NEIC location bias, but consistent with cluster relocations (E. Bergman, pers. comm.) and with Mexican SSN location. Coulomb static stress

What controls the maximum magnitude of injection-induced earthquakes?

Science.gov (United States)

Eaton, D. W. S.

2017-12-01

Three different approaches for estimation of maximum magnitude are considered here, along with their implications for managing risk. The first approach is based on a deterministic limit for seismic moment proposed by McGarr (1976), which was originally designed for application to mining-induced seismicity. This approach has since been reformulated for earthquakes induced by fluid injection (McGarr, 2014). In essence, this method assumes that the upper limit for seismic moment release is constrained by the pressure-induced stress change. A deterministic limit is given by the product of shear modulus and the net injected fluid volume. This method is based on the assumptions that the medium is fully saturated and in a state of incipient failure. An alternative geometrical approach was proposed by Shapiro et al. (2011), who postulated that the rupture area for an induced earthquake falls entirely within the stimulated volume. This assumption reduces the maximum-magnitude problem to one of estimating the largest potential slip surface area within a given stimulated volume. Finally, van der Elst et al. (2016) proposed that the maximum observed magnitude, statistically speaking, is the expected maximum value for a finite sample drawn from an unbounded Gutenberg-Richter distribution. These three models imply different approaches for risk management. The deterministic method proposed by McGarr (2014) implies that a ceiling on the maximum magnitude can be imposed by limiting the net injected volume, whereas the approach developed by Shapiro et al. (2011) implies that the time-dependent maximum magnitude is governed by the spatial size of the microseismic event cloud. Finally, the sample-size hypothesis of Van der Elst et al. (2016) implies that the best available estimate of the maximum magnitude is based upon observed seismicity rate. The latter two approaches suggest that real-time monitoring is essential for effective management of risk. A reliable estimate of maximum

Optimizing risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kindred, G.W.

2000-01-01

Commercial nuclear power plant management is focussed on the safe, efficient, economical production of electricity. To accomplish the safe aspect of the equation, risk must be determined for the operation and maintenance of the facility. To accomplish the efficient aspect of the equation, management must understand those risks and factor risk insights into their decision process. The final piece of the equation is economical which is accomplished by minimizing, plant outage durations and proper utilization of resources. Probabilistic Risk Assessment can provide the risk insights to accomplish all three; safety, efficiency, and economically. How? Safe production of electricity can be quantified by use of PRA modeling and other risk insights that can determine the core damage frequency. Efficient production of electricity can be influenced by providing management with quantified risk insights for use in decision making. And, one example of economical production of electricity is by not having over conservative deterministic based defense in depth approaches to system maintenance and availability. By using risk-informed insights nuclear safety can be quantified and risk can be managed. Confidence in this approach can be achieved by ensuring the content and quality of the PRA is standardized throughout the industry. The time has arrived for Probabilistic Risk Assessment to take an active position as a major role player in the safe, efficient, and economical operation of commercial nuclear power plants. (author)

Risk management and safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niehaus, F.; Novegno, A.

1985-01-01

Risk assessment, including probabilistic analyses, has made great progress over the past decade. In spite of the inherent uncertainties it has now become possible to utilize methods and results for decision making at various levels. This paper will, therefore, review risk management in industrial installations, risk management for energy safety policy and prospects of risk management in highly industrialized areas. (orig.) [de

Applied software risk management a guide for software project managers

CERN Document Server

Pandian, C Ravindranath

2006-01-01

Few software projects are completed on time, on budget, and to their original specifications. Focusing on what practitioners need to know about risk in the pursuit of delivering software projects, Applied Software Risk Management: A Guide for Software Project Managers covers key components of the risk management process and the software development process, as well as best practices for software risk identification, risk planning, and risk analysis. Written in a clear and concise manner, this resource presents concepts and practical insight into managing risk. It first covers risk-driven project management, risk management processes, risk attributes, risk identification, and risk analysis. The book continues by examining responses to risk, the tracking and modeling of risks, intelligence gathering, and integrated risk management. It concludes with details on drafting and implementing procedures. A diary of a risk manager provides insight in implementing risk management processes.Bringing together concepts ...

Public perception of risks from nuclear power plants in Japan, before the Great East Japan Earthquake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murayama, Rumiko; Nakaune, Naoko; Kishikawa, Hiroki; Uchiyama, Iwao

2011-01-01

On this research we aim to clarify public perception of risks from nuclear power plants before the Great East Japan Earthquake. The findings of the questionnaire survey conducted in 2010 showed that 1) about 70% of the people felt that they gained benefit from nuclear power plants and these were needed for their daily life. 2) Fifty percent respondents recognized there was danger to themselves and their family members with regards to nuclear power plants. The risks of nuclear power plants to Japanese society ware estimated higher than that risk to individuals of Japanese public. 3) Perception of risks from nuclear power plants to individual Japanese tended to be slightly lower between 1999 and 2010. (author)

[Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

2016-02-15

Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

Parallelization of the Coupled Earthquake Model

Science.gov (United States)

Block, Gary; Li, P. Peggy; Song, Yuhe T.

2007-01-01

This Web-based tsunami simulation system allows users to remotely run a model on JPL s supercomputers for a given undersea earthquake. At the time of this reporting, predicting tsunamis on the Internet has never happened before. This new code directly couples the earthquake model and the ocean model on parallel computers and improves simulation speed. Seismometers can only detect information from earthquakes; they cannot detect whether or not a tsunami may occur as a result of the earthquake. When earthquake-tsunami models are coupled with the improved computational speed of modern, high-performance computers and constrained by remotely sensed data, they are able to provide early warnings for those coastal regions at risk. The software is capable of testing NASA s satellite observations of tsunamis. It has been successfully tested for several historical tsunamis, has passed all alpha and beta testing, and is well documented for users.

From risk management to uncertainty management: a significant change in project management

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

LI Gui-jun; ZHANG Yue-song

2006-01-01

Starting with the meanings of the terms "risk" and "uncertainty,"" he paper compares uncertainty management with risk management in project management. We bring some doubt to the use of "risk" and "uncertainty" interchangeably in project management and deem their scope, methods, responses, monitoring and controlling should be different too. Illustrations are given covering terminology, description, and treatment from different perspectives of uncertainty management and risk management. Furthermore, the paper retains that project risk management (PRM) processes might be modified to facilitate an uncertainty management perspective,and we support that project uncertainty management (PUM) can enlarge its contribution to improving project management performance, which will result in a significant change in emphasis compared with most risk management.

Improving Operational Risk Management Using Business Performance Management Technologies

OpenAIRE

Bram Pieket Weeserik; Marco Spruit

2018-01-01

Operational Risk Management (ORM) comprises the continuous management of risks resulting from: human actions, internal processes, systems, and external events. With increasing requirements, complexity and a growing volume of risks, information systems provide benefits for integrating risk management activities and optimizing performance. Business Performance Management (BPM) technologies are believed to provide a solution for effective Operational Risk Management by offering several combined ...

Risk Management Issues - An Aerospace Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Perera, Jeevan S.

2011-01-01

Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks--risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements.. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner, Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

RISK MANAGEMENT IN CUSTOMS CONTROL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elena Valerievna Drobot

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Customs administrations operating in the modern global economy are faced with a complex range of challenges. The prime responsibilities remain the collection of revenues and the protection of the society, but these demanding tasks must be performed effectively and efficiently, whilst at the same time facilitating the flow of legitimate goods. Risk management is a logical and systematic method of identifying, analyzing and managing risks. Risk management can be associated with any activity, function or process within the organization and will enable the organization to take advantage of opportunities and minimize potential losses. Minimization of the human factor in customs control through the implementation of non-intrusive inspection equipment can be very useful. The particularities of risk-management system (RMS implementation within customs control are discussed in the article. The authors single out the elements of the risk-management system, evaluate the effectiveness of risk-management in customs control. The main reasons for non-implementation of the risk-management system in customs control are described as well. The particular attention is paid to the benefits of customs risk management. The authors’ hypothesis is that risk management in customs control must find a balance between costs and benefits to address all risks equally. Criteria are needed to decide what constitutes an acceptable or unacceptable risk. Thus, system analysis and risk management system are the effective mechanisms for acceleration of customs clearance and improve the quality of customs control. As a conclusion, the authors give recommendations for the improvement of the effectiveness of risk management system in customs control.

Development of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenarios for the city of Tehran

Science.gov (United States)

Zolfaghari, M. R.; Peyghaleh, E.

2016-01-01

This paper presents the methodology and practical example for the application of optimization process to select earthquake scenarios which best represent probabilistic earthquake hazard in a given region. The method is based on simulation of a large dataset of potential earthquakes, representing the long-term seismotectonic characteristics in a given region. The simulation process uses Monte-Carlo simulation and regional seismogenic source parameters to generate a synthetic earthquake catalogue consisting of a large number of earthquakes, each characterized with magnitude, location, focal depth and fault characteristics. Such catalogue provides full distributions of events in time, space and size; however, demands large computation power when is used for risk assessment, particularly when other sources of uncertainties are involved in the process. To reduce the number of selected earthquake scenarios, a mixed-integer linear program formulation is developed in this study. This approach results in reduced set of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenario, while maintaining shape of hazard curves and full probabilistic picture by minimizing the error between hazard curves driven by full and reduced sets of synthetic earthquake scenarios. To test the model, the regional seismotectonic and seismogenic characteristics of northern Iran are used to simulate a set of 10,000-year worth of events consisting of some 84,000 earthquakes. The optimization model is then performed multiple times with various input data, taking into account probabilistic seismic hazard for Tehran city as the main constrains. The sensitivity of the selected scenarios to the user-specified site/return period error-weight is also assessed. The methodology could enhance run time process for full probabilistic earthquake studies like seismic hazard and risk assessment. The reduced set is the representative of the contributions of all possible earthquakes; however, it requires far less

Risk management in nuclear projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salles, Claudio J.R.

2002-01-01

The risk management will be defined by different aspects: danger or loss possibility, or responsibility for damage. The risk management is one stage of project management. The risk management is a continuous process of planning, identification, quantification, answer and risk control to maximize the success potential of activity. The reduction of risk is part of priority establishment. This work will indicate how introduce this important instrument in the management of nuclear projects. (author)

A global probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from earthquake sources

Science.gov (United States)

Davies, Gareth; Griffin, Jonathan; Lovholt, Finn; Glimsdal, Sylfest; Harbitz, Carl; Thio, Hong Kie; Lorito, Stefano; Basili, Roberto; Selva, Jacopo; Geist, Eric L.; Baptista, Maria Ana

2017-01-01

Large tsunamis occur infrequently but have the capacity to cause enormous numbers of casualties, damage to the built environment and critical infrastructure, and economic losses. A sound understanding of tsunami hazard is required to underpin management of these risks, and while tsunami hazard assessments are typically conducted at regional or local scales, globally consistent assessments are required to support international disaster risk reduction efforts, and can serve as a reference for local and regional studies. This study presents a global-scale probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), extending previous global-scale assessments based largely on scenario analysis. Only earthquake sources are considered, as they represent about 80% of the recorded damaging tsunami events. Globally extensive estimates of tsunami run-up height are derived at various exceedance rates, and the associated uncertainties are quantified. Epistemic uncertainties in the exceedance rates of large earthquakes often lead to large uncertainties in tsunami run-up. Deviations between modelled tsunami run-up and event observations are quantified, and found to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Accounting for these deviations in PTHA is important, as it leads to a pronounced increase in predicted tsunami run-up for a given exceedance rate.

Risk Management for e-Business

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

2007-01-01

Full Text Available In the new Internet economy, risk management plays a critical role to protect the organization and its ability to perform their business mission, not just its IT assets. Risk management is the process of identifying risk, assessing risk, and taking steps to reduce risk to an acceptable level. The risk management is an important component of a IT security program. Information and communications technology management and IT security are responsible for ensuring that technology risks are managed appropriately. These risks originate from the deployment and use of IT assets in various ways, such as configuring systems incorrectly or gaining access to restricted software.

Comprehensive approach for probabilistic risk assessment (CAPRA): international initiative for disaster risk management effectiveness

OpenAIRE

Cardona, Omar D.; Ordaz Schroder, Mario Gustavo; Reinoso, Eduardo; Yamín, Luis; Barbat Barbat, Horia Alejandro

2010-01-01

Understanding disaster risk due to hazard events, such as earthquakes, creates powerful incentives for countries to develop planning options and tools to reduce potential damages. This has been the reason why CAPRA, the risk evaluation model described in this paper, was developed with the technical and financial support of the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the International Strategy of United Nations for Disaster Reduction (ISDR). CAPRA is a techno-scientific metho...

Earthquake and Tsunami: a movie and a book for seismic and tsunami risk reduction in Italy.

Science.gov (United States)

Nostro, C.; Baroux, E.; Maramai, A.; Graziani, L.; Tertulliani, A.; Castellano, C.; Arcoraci, L.; Casale, P.; Ciaccio, M. G.; Frepoli, A.

2009-04-01

Italy is a country well known for the seismic and volcanic hazard. However, a similarly great hazard, although not well recognized, is posed by the occurrence of tsunami waves along the Italian coastline. This is testified by a rich catalogue and by field evidence of deposits left over by pre- and historical tsunamis, even in places today considered safe. This observation is of great importance since many of the areas affected by tsunamis in the past are today touristic places. The Italian tsunamis can be caused by different sources: 1- off-shore or near coast in-land earthquakes; 2- very large earthquakes on distant sources in the Mediterranean; 3- submarine volcanic explosion in the Tyrrhenian sea; 4- submarine landslides triggered by earthquakes and volcanic activity. The consequence of such a wide spectrum of sources is that an important part of the more than 7000 km long Italian coast line is exposed to the tsunami risk, and thousands of inhabitants (with numbers increasing during summer) live near hazardous coasts. The main historical tsunamis are the 1783 and 1908 events that hit Calabrian and Sicilian coasts. The recent tsunami is that caused by the 2002 Stromboli landslide. In order to reduce this risk and following the emotional impact of the December 2004 Sumatra earthquake and tsunami, we developed an outreach program consisting in talks given by scientists and in a movie and a book, both exploring the causes of the tsunami waves, how do they propagate in deep and shallow waters, and what are the effects on the coasts. Hints are also given on the most dangerous Italian coasts (as deduced by scientific studies), and how to behave in the case of a tsunami approaching the coast. These seminars are open to the general public, but special programs are developed with schools of all grades. In this talk we want to present the book and the movie used during the seminars and scientific expositions, that was realized from a previous 3D version originally

Decisionmaking under risk in invasive species management: risk management theory and applications

Science.gov (United States)

Shefali V. Mehta; Robert G. Haight; Frances R. Homans

2010-01-01

Invasive species management is closely entwined with the assessment and management of risk that arises from the inherently random nature of the invasion process. The theory and application of risk management for invasive species with an economic perspective is reviewed in this synthesis. Invasive species management can be delineated into three general categories:...

Hotspots, Lifelines, and the Safrr Haywired Earthquake Sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Ratliff, J. L.; Porter, K.

2014-12-01

Though California has experienced many large earthquakes (San Francisco, 1906; Loma Prieta, 1989; Northridge, 1994), the San Francisco Bay Area has not had a damaging earthquake for 25 years. Earthquake risk and surging reliance on smartphones and the Internet to handle everyday tasks raise the question: is an increasingly technology-reliant Bay Area prepared for potential infrastructure impacts caused by a major earthquake? How will a major earthquake on the Hayward Fault affect lifelines (roads, power, water, communication, etc.)? The U.S. Geological Survey Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) program's Haywired disaster scenario, a hypothetical two-year earthquake sequence triggered by a M7.05 mainshock on the Hayward Fault, addresses these and other questions. We explore four geographic aspects of lifeline damage from earthquakes: (1) geographic lifeline concentrations, (2) areas where lifelines pass through high shaking or potential ground-failure zones, (3) areas with diminished lifeline service demand due to severe building damage, and (4) areas with increased lifeline service demand due to displaced residents and businesses. Potential mainshock lifeline vulnerability and spatial demand changes will be discerned by superimposing earthquake shaking, liquefaction probability, and landslide probability damage thresholds with lifeline concentrations and with large-capacity shelters. Intersecting high hazard levels and lifeline clusters represent potential lifeline susceptibility hotspots. We will also analyze possible temporal vulnerability and demand changes using an aftershock shaking threshold. The results of this analysis will inform regional lifeline resilience initiatives and response and recovery planning, as well as reveal potential redundancies and weaknesses for Bay Area lifelines. Identified spatial and temporal hotspots can provide stakeholders with a reference for possible systemic vulnerability resulting from an earthquake sequence.

Modelling psychological responses to the Great East Japan earthquake and nuclear incident.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robin Goodwin

Full Text Available The Great East Japan (Tōhoku/Kanto earthquake of March 2011 was followed by a major tsunami and nuclear incident. Several previous studies have suggested a number of psychological responses to such disasters. However, few previous studies have modelled individual differences in the risk perceptions of major events, or the implications of these perceptions for relevant behaviours. We conducted a survey specifically examining responses to the Great Japan earthquake and nuclear incident, with data collected 11-13 weeks following these events. 844 young respondents completed a questionnaire in three regions of Japan; Miyagi (close to the earthquake and leaking nuclear plants, Tokyo/Chiba (approximately 220 km from the nuclear plants, and Western Japan (Yamaguchi and Nagasaki, some 1000 km from the plants. Results indicated significant regional differences in risk perception, with greater concern over earthquake risks in Tokyo than in Miyagi or Western Japan. Structural equation analyses showed that shared normative concerns about earthquake and nuclear risks, conservation values, lack of trust in governmental advice about the nuclear hazard, and poor personal control over the nuclear incident were positively correlated with perceived earthquake and nuclear risks. These risk perceptions further predicted specific outcomes (e.g. modifying homes, avoiding going outside, contemplating leaving Japan. The strength and significance of these pathways varied by region. Mental health and practical implications of these findings are discussed in the light of the continuing uncertainties in Japan following the March 2011 events.

Modelling psychological responses to the Great East Japan earthquake and nuclear incident.

Science.gov (United States)

Goodwin, Robin; Takahashi, Masahito; Sun, Shaojing; Gaines, Stanley O

2012-01-01

The Great East Japan (Tōhoku/Kanto) earthquake of March 2011 was followed by a major tsunami and nuclear incident. Several previous studies have suggested a number of psychological responses to such disasters. However, few previous studies have modelled individual differences in the risk perceptions of major events, or the implications of these perceptions for relevant behaviours. We conducted a survey specifically examining responses to the Great Japan earthquake and nuclear incident, with data collected 11-13 weeks following these events. 844 young respondents completed a questionnaire in three regions of Japan; Miyagi (close to the earthquake and leaking nuclear plants), Tokyo/Chiba (approximately 220 km from the nuclear plants), and Western Japan (Yamaguchi and Nagasaki, some 1000 km from the plants). Results indicated significant regional differences in risk perception, with greater concern over earthquake risks in Tokyo than in Miyagi or Western Japan. Structural equation analyses showed that shared normative concerns about earthquake and nuclear risks, conservation values, lack of trust in governmental advice about the nuclear hazard, and poor personal control over the nuclear incident were positively correlated with perceived earthquake and nuclear risks. These risk perceptions further predicted specific outcomes (e.g. modifying homes, avoiding going outside, contemplating leaving Japan). The strength and significance of these pathways varied by region. Mental health and practical implications of these findings are discussed in the light of the continuing uncertainties in Japan following the March 2011 events.

Globe of Natural Hazard - A new assessment tool for risk managers

Science.gov (United States)

Siebert, A. C.

2009-04-01

A large number of tropical cyclones and the earthquake in Sichuan made 2008 one of the most devastating years on record. Throughout the world, more than 220,000 people died as a result of natural catastrophes this year. Overall losses totaled some US 200bn (2007: US 82bn). Insured losses in 2008 rose to US 45bn, about 50% higher than in the previous year. Mainly driven by high losses from weather-related natural catastrophes, 2008 was - on the basis of figures adjusted for inflation - even the third most expensive year on record for the insurance industry, exceeded only by the hurricane year of 2005 and by 1995, the year of the Kobe earthquake. Munich Re, a worldwide operating reinsurance company, is a world leader in terms of investigating risks from natural hazards of all kinds. 2008 has again shown the insurance industry how important it is to analyse risks like natural hazards and climate change in all their facets and to manage the insurance business accordingly. An excellent example of the wealth of knowledge Munich Re has developed in natural hazard assessment is the DVD "Globe of Natural Hazards". It combines the geoscientific data and findings Munich Re has accumulated over a period of 35 years. First devised as a wall-map in 1978, the product has established itself as a standard work for the identification, exposure assessment and risk management of natural hazards. Over 80,000 copies of the CD-ROM version of 2000 have been provided to clients - a mark achieved by no other service product in Munich Re's history. Since the beginning of 2009, the fully updated fourth-generation version has been available. The bilingual DVD (German and English) shows natural hazards and climate effects at a glance: the global maps are presented on a 3D globe, underlaid with satellite images. The hazard complexes of hail, tornado and winter storms have been completely revised and flood incorporated as a new hazard. Users can intuitively home in on and enlarge any location on

Risk management frameworks for human health and environmental risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Jardine, Cindy; Hrudey, Steve; Shortreed, John; Craig, Lorraine; Krewski, Daniel; Furgal, Chris; McColl, Stephen

2003-01-01

A comprehensive analytical review of the risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication approaches currently being undertaken by key national, provincial/state, territorial, and international agencies was conducted. The information acquired for review was used to identify the differences, commonalities, strengths, and weaknesses among the various approaches, and to identify elements that should be included in an effective, current, and comprehensive approach applicable to environmental, human health and occupational health risks. More than 80 agencies, organizations, and advisory councils, encompassing more than 100 risk documents, were examined during the period from February 2000 until November 2002. An overview was made of the most important general frameworks for risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication for human health and ecological risk, and for occupational health risk. In addition, frameworks for specific applications were reviewed and summarized, including those for (1)contaminated sites; (2) northern contaminants; (3) priority substances; (4) standards development; (5) food safety; (6) medical devices; (7) prescription drug use; (8) emergency response; (9) transportation; (10) risk communication. Twelve frameworks were selected for more extensive review on the basis of representation of the areas of human health, ecological, and occupational health risk; relevance to Canadian risk management needs; representation of comprehensive and well-defined approaches; generalizability with their risk areas; representation of "state of the art" in Canada, the United States, and/or internationally; and extent of usage of potential usage within Canada. These 12 frameworks were: 1. Framework for Environmental Health Risk Management (US Presidential/Congressional Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management, 1997). 2. Health Risk Determination: The Challenge of Health Protection (Health and Welfare Canada, 1990). 3. Health Canada Decision

Management of limb fractures in a teaching hospital: comparison between Wenchuan and Yushu earthquakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Min, Li; Tu, Chong-qi; Liu, Lei; Zhang, Wen-li; Yi, Min; Song, Yue-ming; Huang, Fu-guo; Yang, Tian-fu; Pei, Fu-xing

2013-01-01

To comparatively analyze the medical records of patients with limb fractures as well as rescue strategy in Wenchuan and Yushu earthquakes so as to provide references for post-earthquake rescue. We retrospectively investigated 944 patients sustaining limb fractures, including 891 in Wenchuan earthquake and 53 in Yushu earthquake, who were admitted to West China Hospital (WCH) of Sichuan University. In Wenchuan earthquake, WCH met its three peaks of limb fracture patients influx, on post-earthquake day (PED) 2, 8 and 14 respectively. Between PED 3-14, 585 patients were transferred from WCH to other hospitals outside the Sichuan Province. In Yushu earthquake, the maximum influx of limb fracture patients happened on PED 3, and no one was shifted to other hospitals. Both in Wenchuan and Yushu earthquakes, most limb fractures were caused by blunt strike and crush/burying. In Wenchuan earthquake, there were 396 (396/942, 42.0%) open limb fractures, including 28 Gustilo I, 201 Gustilo II and 167 Gustilo III injuries. But in Yushu earthquake, the incidence of open limb fracture was much lower (6/61, 9.8%). The percent of patients with acute complications in Wenchuan earthquake (167/891, 18.7%) was much higher than that in Yushu earthquake (5/53, 3.8%). In Wenchuan earthquake rescue, 1 018 surgeries were done, composed of debridement in 376, internal fixation in 283, external fixation in 119, and vacuum sealing drainage in 117, etc. While among the 64 surgeries in Yushu earthquake rescue, the internal fixation for limb fracture was mostly adopted. All patients received proper treatment and survived except one who died due to multiple organs failure in Wenchuan earthquake. Provision of suitable and sufficient medical care in a catastrophe can only be achieved by construction of sophisticated national disaster medical system, prediction of the injury types and number of injuries, and confirmation of participating hospitals?exact role. Based on the valuable rescue experiences

Maximum magnitude of injection-induced earthquakes: A criterion to assess the influence of pressure migration along faults

Science.gov (United States)

Norbeck, Jack H.; Horne, Roland N.

2018-05-01

The maximum expected earthquake magnitude is an important parameter in seismic hazard and risk analysis because of its strong influence on ground motion. In the context of injection-induced seismicity, the processes that control how large an earthquake will grow may be influenced by operational factors under engineering control as well as natural tectonic factors. Determining the relative influence of these effects on maximum magnitude will impact the design and implementation of induced seismicity management strategies. In this work, we apply a numerical model that considers the coupled interactions of fluid flow in faulted porous media and quasidynamic elasticity to investigate the earthquake nucleation, rupture, and arrest processes for cases of induced seismicity. We find that under certain conditions, earthquake ruptures are confined to a pressurized region along the fault with a length-scale that is set by injection operations. However, earthquakes are sometimes able to propagate as sustained ruptures outside of the zone that experienced a pressure perturbation. We propose a faulting criterion that depends primarily on the state of stress and the earthquake stress drop to characterize the transition between pressure-constrained and runaway rupture behavior.

Design Guide for Improving School Safety in Earthquakes, Floods, and High Winds. Risk Management Series. FEMA 424

Science.gov (United States)

Arnold, Christopher; Lyons, Jack; Munger, James; Quinn, Rebecca C.; Smith, Thomas L.

2004-01-01

This manual is intended to provide guidance for the protection of school buildings and their occupants from natural disasters, and the economic losses and social disruption caused by building damage and destruction. This volume concentrates on grade schools, K-12. This publication covers earthquakes, floods, and high winds. Its intended audience…

Construction Management Risk System (CMRS for Construction Management (CM Firms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kyungmo Park

2017-02-01

Full Text Available After the global financial crisis of 2008, the need for risk management arose because it was necessary to minimize the losses in construction management (CM firms. This was caused by a decreased amount of orders in the Korean CM market, which intensified order competition between companies. However, research results revealed that risks were not being systematically managed owing to the absence of risk management systems. Thus, it was concluded that it was necessary to develop standard operating systems and implement risk management systems in order to manage risks effectively. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to develop a construction risk management system (CRMS for systematically managing risks. For this purpose, the field operation managers of CM firms were interviewed and surveyed in order to define risk factors. Upon this, a risk assessment priority analysis was performed. Finally, a risk management system that comprised seven modules and 20 sub-modules and was capable of responding systematically to risks was proposed. Furthermore, the effectiveness of this system was verified through on-site inspection. This system allows early response to risks, accountability verification and immediate response to legal disputes with clients by managing risk records.

Management of limb fractures in a teaching hospital: comparison between Wenchuan and Yushu earthquakes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MIN Li

2013-02-01

Full Text Available 【Abstract】Objective: To comparatively analyze the medical records of patients with limb fractures as well as rescue strategy in Wenchuan and Yushu earthquakes so as to provide references for post-earthquake rescue. Methods: We retrospectively investigated 944 patients sustaining limb fractures, including 891 in Wenchuan earth-quake and 53 in Yushu earthquake, who were admitted to West China Hospital (WCH of Sichuan University. Results: In Wenchuan earthquake, WCH met its three peaks of limb fracture patients influx, on post-earthquake day (PED 2, 8 and 14 respectively. Between PED 3-14, 585 patients were transferred from WCH to other hospitals out-side the Sichuan Province. In Yushu earthquake, the maxi-mum influx of limb fracture patients happened on PED 3, and no one was shifted to other hospitals. Both in Wenchuan and Yushu earthquakes, most limb fractures were caused by blunt strike and crush/burying. In Wenchuan earthquake, there were 396 (396/942, 42.0% open limb fractures, includ-ing 28 Gustilo I, 201 Gustilo II and 167 Gustilo III injuries. But in Yushu earthquake, the incidence of open limb frac-ture was much lower (6/61, 9.8%. The percent of patients with acute complications in Wenchuan earthquake (167/891, 18.7% was much higher than that in Yushu earthquake (5/53, 3.8%. In Wenchuan earthquake rescue, 1 018 surgeries were done, composed of debridement in 376, internal fixation in 283, external fixation in 119, and vacuum sealing drainage in 117, etc. While among the 64 surgeries in Yushu earthquake rescue, the internal fixation for limb fracture was mostly adopted. All patients received proper treatment and sur-vived except one who died due to multiple organs failure in Wenchuan earthquake. Conclusion: Provision of suitable and sufficient medi-cal care in a catastrophe can only be achieved by construc-tion of sophisticated national disaster medical system, pre-diction of the injury types and number of injuries, and con-firmation of

Information Risk Management and Resilience

Science.gov (United States)

Dynes, Scott

Are the levels of information risk management efforts within and between firms correlated with the resilience of the firms to information disruptions? This paper examines the question by considering the results of field studies of information risk management practices at organizations and in supply chains. The organizations investigated differ greatly in the degree of coupling from a general and information risk management standpoint, as well as in the levels of internal awareness and activity regarding information risk management. The comparison of the levels of information risk management in the firms and their actual or inferred resilience indicates that a formal information risk management approach is not necessary for resilience in certain sectors.

Continuous Risk Management at NASA

Science.gov (United States)

Hammer, Theodore F.; Rosenberg, Linda

1999-01-01

NPG 7120.5A, "NASA Program and Project Management Processes and Requirements" enacted in April, 1998, requires that "The program or project manager shall apply risk management principles..." The Software Assurance Technology Center (SATC) at NASA GSFC has been tasked with the responsibility for developing and teaching a systems level course for risk management that provides information on how to comply with this edict. The course was developed in conjunction with the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University, then tailored to the NASA systems community. This presentation will briefly discuss the six functions for risk management: (1) Identify the risks in a specific format; (2) Analyze the risk probability, impact/severity, and timeframe; (3) Plan the approach; (4) Track the risk through data compilation and analysis; (5) Control and monitor the risk; (6) Communicate and document the process and decisions. This risk management structure of functions has been taught to projects at all NASA Centers and is being successfully implemented on many projects. This presentation will give project managers the information they need to understand if risk management is to be effectively implemented on their projects at a cost they can afford.

Probability concepts in quality risk management.

Science.gov (United States)

Claycamp, H Gregg

2012-01-01

Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although risk is generally a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management tools are relatively silent on the meaning and uses of "probability." The probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of frequency-based calculation and a "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management. A rich history of probability in risk management applied to other fields suggests that high-quality risk management decisions benefit from the implementation of more thoughtful probability concepts in both risk modeling and risk management. Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although "risk" generally describes a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management methodologies and respective tools focus on managing severity but are relatively silent on the in-depth meaning and uses of "probability." Pharmaceutical manufacturers are expanding their use of quality risk management to identify and manage risks to the patient that might occur in phases of the pharmaceutical life cycle from drug development to manufacture, marketing to product discontinuation. A probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of data-based measures of probability and a subjective "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as

IMPLEMENTING A RISK MANAGEMENT STANDARD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Constantin PREDA

2013-01-01

Full Text Available After risk management “conquered” more and more project managers’ minds and showed its benefits for business and programs, the need to have a global risk management standard has become a crucial issue in the world of risk management. But having a global risk management standard has been a big challenge, starting from the decision of developing the standard (March-June 2005, to the moment of publishing it, November 2009. So, developing the ISO 31000:2009 standard has been more or less like a bumpy ride. Apparently, the people involved in developing the global risk management standard understood from the very beginning that no challenges are too big, nor any tasks too small and that the task of having a new, comprehensive global risk management standard should be completed with excellence: defining the principles and the framework guiding the risk management process applicable for all type of organizations and for a wide range of activities. Coming up with a global standard should always be based on the real organizations’ needs and should fulfill real risk management requirements. The article is trying to present the pros and cons of risk management standard implementation, challenging the implementation process itself and the added value of implementing the standard due to the lack of implementation enablers, like risk culture, a real problem especially in an international environment.

Napa Earthquake impact on water systems

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, J.

2014-12-01

South Napa earthquake occurred in Napa, California on August 24 at 3am, local time, and the magnitude is 6.0. The earthquake was the largest in SF Bay Area since the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. Economic loss topped $ 1 billion. Wine makers cleaning up and estimated the damage on tourism. Around 15,000 cases of lovely cabernet were pouring into the garden at the Hess Collection. Earthquake potentially raise water pollution risks, could cause water crisis. CA suffered water shortage recent years, and it could be helpful on how to prevent underground/surface water pollution from earthquake. This research gives a clear view on drinking water system in CA, pollution on river systems, as well as estimation on earthquake impact on water supply. The Sacramento-San Joaquin River delta (close to Napa), is the center of the state's water distribution system, delivering fresh water to more than 25 million residents and 3 million acres of farmland. Delta water conveyed through a network of levees is crucial to Southern California. The drought has significantly curtailed water export, and salt water intrusion reduced fresh water outflows. Strong shaking from a nearby earthquake can cause saturated, loose, sandy soils liquefaction, and could potentially damage major delta levee systems near Napa. Napa earthquake is a wake-up call for Southern California. It could potentially damage freshwater supply system.

Mapping individuals' earthquake preparedness in China

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Guochun; Han, Ziqiang; Xu, Weijin; Gong, Yue

2018-05-01

Disaster preparedness is critical for reducing potential impact. This paper contributes to current knowledge of disaster preparedness using representative national sample data from China, which faces high earthquake risks in many areas of the country. The adoption of earthquake preparedness activities by the general public, including five indicators of material preparedness and five indicators of awareness preparedness, were surveyed and 3245 respondents from all 31 provinces of Mainland China participated in the survey. Linear regression models and logit regression models were used to analyze the effects of potential influencing factors. Overall, the preparedness levels are not satisfied, with a material preparation score of 3.02 (1-5), and awareness preparation score of 2.79 (1-5), nationally. Meanwhile, residents from western China, which has higher earthquake risk, have higher degrees of preparedness. The concern for disaster risk reduction (DRR) and the concern for building safety and participation in public affairs are consistent positive predictors of both material and awareness preparedness. The demographic and socioeconomic variables' effects, such as gender, age, education, income, urban/rural division, and building size, vary according to different preparedness activities. Finally, the paper concludes with a discussion of the theoretical contribution and potential implementation.

Risk Perception and Economic Value Of Disaster Mitigation Case of Bantul Post Earthquake May 2006

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Suryanto Suryanto

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false IN X-NONE AR-SA MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 This study aims to obtain empirical evidence of disaster mitigation in Bantul, Indonesia. The expected utility theory and impact of regional characteristics on individual perceptions was used to describe the disaster risk management process. The regional mapping based on hazard level was conducted by a Geographical Information System (GIS. Data used in this research were primary and secondary data. Primary data were obtained by distributing questionnaire to some respondents. Sample amounts used were 395 respondents. The research empirical contribution was to economic valuation method used towards safety and efforts to link regional characteristics, individual perception and also their willingness to conduct mitigation. The research practical contribution was to identify some key obstacles in disaster risk management. Based on multiple regression analysis, this study found that educational level, risk aversion degree, trust towards earthquake-resistant building, control ability, income level, classifi cation of hazard area contributes to higher Willingness To Pay (WTP for mitigation. It also found that perception towards central governmental roles variable did not affect to WTP for mitigation. However, the income levels of the communities in Bantul positively correspond to WTP for mitigation suggesting that the fi ndings were consistent with the expected utility theory. /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0cm; mso-para-margin-right:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0cm; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso

Global assessment of human losses due to earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, Vitor; Jaiswal, Kishor; Weatherill, Graeme; Crowley, Helen

2014-01-01

Current studies have demonstrated a sharp increase in human losses due to earthquakes. These alarming levels of casualties suggest the need for large-scale investment in seismic risk mitigation, which, in turn, requires an adequate understanding of the extent of the losses, and location of the most affected regions. Recent developments in global and uniform datasets such as instrumental and historical earthquake catalogues, population spatial distribution and country-based vulnerability functions, have opened an unprecedented possibility for a reliable assessment of earthquake consequences at a global scale. In this study, a uniform probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) model was employed to derive a set of global seismic hazard curves, using the open-source software OpenQuake for seismic hazard and risk analysis. These results were combined with a collection of empirical fatality vulnerability functions and a population dataset to calculate average annual human losses at the country level. The results from this study highlight the regions/countries in the world with a higher seismic risk, and thus where risk reduction measures should be prioritized.

Use of Satellite SAR Data for Seismic Risk Management: Results from the Pre-Operational ASI-SIGRIS Project

Science.gov (United States)

Salvi, Stefano; Vignoli, Stefano; Zoffoli, Simona; Bosi, Vittorio

2010-12-01

The scope of the SIGRIS pilot project is the development of an infrastructure to provide value-added information services for the seismic risk management, assuring a close integration between ground-based and satellite Earth Observation data. The project is presently in the demonstration phase, and various information products are constantly generated and disseminated to the main user, the Italian Civil Protection Department. We show some examples of the products generated during the Crisis management of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake in Central Italy. We also show an example of products generated for the Knowledge and Prevention service in support of the seismic hazard assessment in the area of the Straits of Messina.

CEA - 2014 risk management assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bonnevie, Edwige; Verwaerde, Daniel; Maillot, Bernard

2015-06-01

After introducing presentations of CEA managers in charge of risk management and controls, this document presents and comments the actions undertaken by the CEA and the obtained results in terms of risk management in different fields: protection and control of the environment, installation safety, health, safety and radiation protection, transport of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, management of emergency situations, management of legal risks, internal audits and controls. Other topics are addressed like the presentation of the risk management department, and the role of the CEA in the relationship between research and industry

Sensitivity of tsunami wave profiles and inundation simulations to earthquake slip and fault geometry for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

KAUST Repository

Goda, Katsuichiro; Mai, Paul Martin; Yasuda, Tomohiro; Mori, Nobuhito

2014-01-01

In this study, we develop stochastic random-field slip models for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and conduct a rigorous sensitivity analysis of tsunami hazards with respect to the uncertainty of earthquake slip and fault geometry. Synthetic earthquake slip distributions generated from the modified Mai-Beroza method captured key features of inversion-based source representations of the mega-thrust event, which were calibrated against rich geophysical observations of this event. Using original and synthesised earthquake source models (varied for strike, dip, and slip distributions), tsunami simulations were carried out and the resulting variability in tsunami hazard estimates was investigated. The results highlight significant sensitivity of the tsunami wave profiles and inundation heights to the coastal location and the slip characteristics, and indicate that earthquake slip characteristics are a major source of uncertainty in predicting tsunami risks due to future mega-thrust events.

Sensitivity of tsunami wave profiles and inundation simulations to earthquake slip and fault geometry for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

KAUST Repository

Goda, Katsuichiro

2014-09-01

In this study, we develop stochastic random-field slip models for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and conduct a rigorous sensitivity analysis of tsunami hazards with respect to the uncertainty of earthquake slip and fault geometry. Synthetic earthquake slip distributions generated from the modified Mai-Beroza method captured key features of inversion-based source representations of the mega-thrust event, which were calibrated against rich geophysical observations of this event. Using original and synthesised earthquake source models (varied for strike, dip, and slip distributions), tsunami simulations were carried out and the resulting variability in tsunami hazard estimates was investigated. The results highlight significant sensitivity of the tsunami wave profiles and inundation heights to the coastal location and the slip characteristics, and indicate that earthquake slip characteristics are a major source of uncertainty in predicting tsunami risks due to future mega-thrust events.

Risk management of a fund for natural disasters

Science.gov (United States)

Flores, C.

2003-04-01

Mexico is a country which has to deal with several natural disaster risks: earthquakes, droughts, volcanic eruptions, floods, slides, wild fires, extreme temperatures, etc. In order to reduce the country's vulnerability to the impact of these natural disasters and to support rapid recovery when they occur, the government established in 1996 Mexico's Fund for Natural Disasters (FONDEN). Since its creation, its resources have been insufficient to meet all government obligations. The aim of this project is the development of a dynamic strategy to optimise the management of a fund for natural disasters starting from the example of FONDEN. The problem of budgetary planning is being considered for the modelling. We control the level of the fund's cash (R_t)0money borrowed at time t. For the initial model, we assume that the deterministic payments for risk transfer and debt are made at t=0. We determine c>0 at t=0 and then we try to pull at every moment the process to this objective. Multifractal models in geophysics are physically based stochastic models. A multiplicative cascade model fitted to a data set can be used for generation of synthetic sequences that resemble the original data in terms of its scaling properties. Since recent years, uncertainty concepts based on multifractal fields are being applied to the development of techniques to calculate marginal and conditional probabilities of an extreme rainfall event in a determined zone. As initial point to the development of the model, a multifractal model for extreme rainfall events will be used as part of the input for the stochastic control model. A theme for further research is linking more warning systems to the model. Keywords: risk management, stochastic control, multifractal measures, multiplicative cascades, heavy rainfall events.

Modeling financial disaster risk management in developing countries

Science.gov (United States)

Mechler, R.; Hochrainer, S.; Pflug, G.; Linnerooth-Bayer, J.

2005-12-01

The public sector plays a major role in reducing the long-term economic repercussions of disasters by repairing damaged infrastructure and providing financial assistance to households and businesses. If critical infrastructure is not repaired in a timely manner, there can be serious effects on the economy and the livelihoods of the population. The repair of public infrastructure, however, can be a significant drain on public budgets especially in developing and transition countries. Developing country governments frequently lack the liquidity, even including international aid and loans, to fully repair damaged critical public infrastructure or provide sufficient support to households and businesses for their recovery. The earthquake in Gujarat, and other recent cases of government post-disaster liquidity crises, have sounded an alarm, prompting financial development organizations, such as the World Bank, among others, to call for greater attention to reducing financial vulnerability and increasing the resilience of the public sector. This talk reports on a model designed to illustrate the tradeoffs and choices a developing country must make in financially managing the economic risks due to natural disasters. Budgetary resources allocated to pre-disaster risk management strategies, such as loss mitigation measures, a catastrophe reserve fund, insurance and contingent credit arrangements for public assets, reduce the probability of financing gaps - the inability of governments to meet their full obligations in providing relief to private victims and restoring public infrastructure - or prevent the deterioration of the ability to undertake additional borrowing without incurring a debt crisis. The model -which is equipped with a graphical interface - can be a helpful tool for building capacity of policy makers for developing and assessing public financing strategies for disaster risk by indicating the respective costs and consequences of financing alternatives.

The Role of Citizen Science in Risk Mitigation and Disaster Response: A Case Study of 2015 Nepalese Earthquake Using OpenStreetMap

Science.gov (United States)

Rieger, C.; Byrne, J. M.

2015-12-01

Citizen science includes networks of ordinary people acting as sensors, observing and recording information for science. OpenStreetMap is one such sensor network which empowers citizens to collaboratively produce a global picture from free geographic information. The success of this open source software is extended by the development of freely used open databases for the user community. Participating citizens do not require a high level of skill. Final results are processed by professionals following quality assurance protocols before map information is released. OpenStreetMap is not only the cheapest source of timely maps in many cases but also often the only source. This is particularly true in developing countries. Emergency responses to the recent earthquake in Nepal illustrates the value for rapidly updated geographical information. This includes emergency management, damage assessment, post-disaster response, and future risk mitigation. Local disaster conditions (landslides, road closings, bridge failures, etc.) were documented for local aid workers by citizen scientists working remotely. Satellites and drones provide digital imagery of the disaster zone and OpenStreetMap participants shared the data from locations around the globe. For the Nepal earthquake, OpenStreetMap provided a team of volunteers on the ground through their Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team (HOT) which contribute data to the disaster response through smartphones and laptops. This, combined with global citizen science efforts, provided immediate geographically useful maps to assist aid workers, including the Red Cross and Canadian DART Team, and the Nepalese government. As of August 2014, almost 1.7 million users provided over 2.5 billion edits to the OpenStreetMap map database. Due to the increased usage of smartphones, GPS-enabled devices, and the growing participation in citizen science projects, data gathering is proving an effective way to contribute as a global citizen. This paper

DEFENSE PROGRAMS RISK MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK

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Constantin PREDA

2012-01-01

Full Text Available For the past years defense programs have faced delays in delivering defense capabilities and budget overruns. Stakeholders are looking for ways to improve program management and the decision making process given the very fluid and uncertain economic and political environment. Consequently, they have increasingly resorted to risk management as the main management tool for achieving defense programs objectives and for delivering the defense capabilities strongly needed for the soldiers on the ground on time and within limited defense budgets. Following a risk management based decision-making approach the stakeholders are expected not only to protect program objectives against a wide range of risks but, at the same time, to take advantage of the opportunities to increase the likelihood of program success. The prerequisite for making risk management the main tool for achieving defense programs objectives is the design and implementation of a strong risk management framework as a foundation providing an efficient and effective application of the best risk management practices. The aim of this paper is to examine the risk management framework for defense programs based on the ISO 31000:2009 standard, best risk management practices and the defense programs’ needs and particularities. For the purposes of this article, the term of defense programs refers to joint defense programs.

Risk and/or resilience management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jean-Paul Louisot

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Risk management aims at managing all the uncertainties that may interfere with the objectives and missions of the organization. Resilience engineering aims at building its capacity to get over disturbances or stress while keeping the functionalities needed to survive, and possibly thrive. A recently open debate on an Internet blog launched by the risk managers of the Scottish Widows Bank seems to arise from what some professionals see as two competing branches of the management sciences. Whereas through the development of ERM – Enterprise-wide Risk Management – risk management is emerging at last to become a science, as well as an art and a practice, the mentioned above centered on the role of a newly forged name “resilience management”. This opens a new front of the many debates that could derail the path to maturity of Risk Management as a science and reopen new silos much as Business Impact Analysis, BIA, or continuity management, might do if a clear distinction is not made between science, objectives and tools. However, because organizations are so interconnected today in the supply cloud that it is inevitable that they will face catastrophic risk and this is why resilience needs to be a core objective of any risk management plan? Whereas traditional risk management techniques alone may not be adequate to deal with such pervasive and insipient risk scenarios, resilience is ingrained into ERM

Prevent recurrence of nuclear disaster (3). Agenda on nuclear safety from earthquake engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kameda, Hiroyuki; Takada, Tsuyoshi; Ebisawa, Katsumi; Nakamura, Susumu

2012-01-01

Based on results of activities of committee on seismic safety of nuclear power plants (NPPs) of Japan Association for Earthquake Engineering, which started activities after Chuetsu-oki earthquake and then experienced Great East Japan Earthquake, (under close collaboration with the committee of Atomic Energy Society of Japan started activities simultaneously), and taking account of further development of concept, agenda on nuclear safety were proposed from earthquake engineering. In order to prevent recurrence of nuclear disaster, individual technical issues of earthquake engineering and comprehensive issues of integration technology, multidisciplinary collaboration and establishment of technology governance based on them were of prime importance. This article described important problems to be solved; (1) technical issues and mission of seismic safety of NPPs, (2) decision making based on risk assessment - basis of technical governance, (3) framework of risk, design and regulation - framework of required technology governance, (4) technical issues of earthquake engineering for nuclear safety, (5) role of earthquake engineering in nuclear power risk communication and (6) importance of multidisciplinary collaboration. Responsibility of engineering would be attributed to establishment of technology governance, cultivation of individual technology and integration technology, and social communications. (T. Tanaka)

Vulnerability assessment of archaeological sites to earthquake hazard: An indicator based method integrating spatial and temporal aspects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Despina Minos-Minopoulos

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Across the world, numerous sites of cultural heritage value are at risk from a variety of human-induced and natural hazards such as war and earthquakes. Here we present and test a novel indicator-based method for assessing the vulnerability of archaeological sites to earthquakes. Vulnerability is approached as a dynamic element assessed through a combination of spatial and temporal parameters. The spatial parameters examine the susceptibility of the sites to the secondary Earthquake Environmental Effects of ground liquefaction, landslides and tsunami and are expressed through the Spatial Susceptibility Index (SSi. Parameters of physical vulnerability, economic importance and visitors density examine the temporal vulnerability of the sites expressed through the Temporal Vulnerability Index (TVi. The equally weighted sum of the spatial and temporal indexes represents the total Archaeological Site Vulnerability Index (A.S.V.I.. The A.S.V.I method is applied at 16 archaeological sites across Greece, allowing an assessment of their vulnerability. This then allows the establishment of a regional and national priority list for considering future risk mitigation. Results indicate that i the majority of the sites have low to moderate vulnerability to earthquake hazard, ii Neratzia Fortress on Kos and Heraion on Samos are characterised as highly vulnerable and should be prioritised for further studies and mitigation measures, and iii the majority of the sites are susceptible to at least one Earthquake Environmental Effect and present relatively high physical vulnerability attributed to the existing limited conservation works. This approach highlights the necessity for an effective vulnerability assessment methodology within the existing framework of disaster risk management for cultural heritage.

Supply chain risk management

OpenAIRE

Christian Hollstein; Frank Himpel

2013-01-01

Background: Supply chain risk management increasingly gains prominence in many international industries. In order to strengthen supply chain structures, processes, and networks, adequate potentials for risk management need to be built (focus on effective logistics) and to be utilized (focus on efficient logistics). Natural-based disasters, such as the case of Fukushima, illustrate how crucial risk management is. Method: By aligning a theoretical-conceptual framework with empirical-induct...

The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake and the Rise and Fall of Earthquake Prediction in China

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Q.; Wang, K.

2009-12-01

damage than those that did not. However, the progress in practice was very far behind the progress in knowledge and regulations; more strict enforcement of seismic design provisions and wiser selection of construction sites would have saved many more lives in the Wenchuan area. The Wenchuan earthquake has started a new era. Confidence in prediction has dropped to a historical low despite a strong sentimental attachment to it, and practical mitigation management has firmly gained its priority position.

Knowledge base about earthquakes as a tool to minimize strong events consequences

Science.gov (United States)

Frolova, Nina; Bonnin, Jean; Larionov, Valery; Ugarov, Alexander; Kijko, Andrzej

2017-04-01

The paper describes the structure and content of the knowledge base on physical and socio-economical consequences of damaging earthquakes, which may be used for calibration of near real-time loss assessment systems based on simulation models for shaking intensity, damage to buildings and casualties estimates. Such calibration allows to compensate some factors which influence on reliability of expected damage and loss assessment in "emergency" mode. The knowledge base contains the description of past earthquakes' consequences for the area under study. It also includes the current distribution of built environment and population at the time of event occurrence. Computer simulation of the recorded in knowledge base events allow to determine the sets of regional calibration coefficients, including rating of seismological surveys, peculiarities of shaking intensity attenuation and changes in building stock and population distribution, in order to provide minimum error of damaging earthquakes loss estimations in "emergency" mode. References 1. Larionov, V., Frolova, N: Peculiarities of seismic vulnerability estimations. In: Natural Hazards in Russia, volume 6: Natural Risks Assessment and Management, Publishing House "Kruk", Moscow, 120-131, 2003. 2. Frolova, N., Larionov, V., Bonnin, J.: Data Bases Used In Worlwide Systems For Earthquake Loss Estimation In Emergency Mode: Wenchuan Earthquake. In Proc. TIEMS2010 Conference, Beijing, China, 2010. 3. Frolova N. I., Larionov V. I., Bonnin J., Sushchev S. P., Ugarov A. N., Kozlov M. A. Loss Caused by Earthquakes: Rapid Estimates. Natural Hazards Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol.84, ISSN 0921-030, Nat Hazards DOI 10.1007/s11069-016-2653

Evaluation on lifetime risk in reinforced concrete structure; RC kozo no lifetime risk no hyoka ni kansuru kisoteki kenkyu

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Suzuki, M. [Public Works Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan); Adachi, H. [Taisei Corp., Tokyo (Japan); Akakura, Y. [Ministry of Transport, Tokyo (Japan); Ibayashi, K.; Ozaka, Y. [Tohoku Gakuin Univ., Sendai (Japan)

1996-02-15

To evaluate the risk during longevity of reinforced concrete structure subjected to earthquake motions, called lifetime risk, damage and safety were estimated by means of the earthquake risk analysis and earthquake response analysis. For the earthquake risk analysis, historical earthquake data with relatively low accuracy were efficiently taken into account, to determine the annual mean generation probability against the earthquake motion strength in ten main cities. A new damage index with load hysteresis was defined as an anti-earthquake evaluation index where accumulative damage is taken into consideration. Assuming that the damage transits from `certain state` to `certain state` every time the earthquake motion generates at the noticeable place, damage transition matrix expressing transition probability was calculated by using the results of earthquake risk analysis and the accumulative damage index. The lifetime risk was calculated from the damage transition matrix and the earthquake motion generation probability, to evaluate the safety. 21 refs., 10 figs., 8 tabs.

Varenna workshop report. Operational earthquake forecasting and decision making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Warner Marzocchi

2015-09-01

Full Text Available A workshop on Operational earthquake forecasting and decision making was convened in Varenna, Italy, on June 8-11, 2014, under the sponsorship of the EU FP 7 REAKT (Strategies and tools for Real-time EArthquake risK reducTion project, the Seismic Hazard Center at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV, and the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC. The main goal was to survey the interdisciplinary issues of operational earthquake forecasting (OEF, including the problems that OEF raises for decision making and risk communication. The workshop was attended by 64 researchers from universities, research centers, and governmental institutions in 11 countries. Participants and the workshop agenda are listed in the appendix.The workshop comprised six topical sessions structured around three main themes: the science of operational earthquake forecasting, decision making in a low-probability environment, and communicating hazard and risk. Each topic was introduced by a moderator and surveyed by a few invited speakers, who were then empaneled for an open discussion. The presentations were followed by poster sessions. During a wrap-up session on the last day, the reporters for each topical session summarized the main points that they had gleaned from the talks and open discussions. This report attempts to distill this workshop record into a brief overview of the workshop themes and to describe the range of opinions expressed during the discussions.

Data Management in Metagenomics: A Risk Management Approach

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Filipe Ferreira

2014-07-01

Full Text Available In eScience, where vast data collections are processed in scientific workflows, new risks and challenges are emerging. Those challenges are changing the eScience paradigm, mainly regarding digital preservation and scientific workflows. To address specific concerns with data management in these scenarios, the concept of the Data Management Plan was established, serving as a tool for enabling digital preservation in eScience research projects. We claim risk management can be jointly used with a Data Management Plan, so new risks and challenges can be easily tackled. Therefore, we propose an analysis process for eScience projects using a Data Management Plan and ISO 31000 in order to create a Risk Management Plan that can complement the Data Management Plan. The motivation, requirements and validation of this proposal are explored in the MetaGen-FRAME project, focused in Metagenomics.

Building with Earthquakes in Mind

Science.gov (United States)

Mangieri, Nicholas

2016-04-01

Earthquakes are some of the most elusive and destructive disasters humans interact with on this planet. Engineering structures to withstand earthquake shaking is critical to ensure minimal loss of life and property. However, the majority of buildings today in non-traditional earthquake prone areas are not built to withstand this devastating force. Understanding basic earthquake engineering principles and the effect of limited resources helps students grasp the challenge that lies ahead. The solution can be found in retrofitting existing buildings with proper reinforcements and designs to deal with this deadly disaster. The students were challenged in this project to construct a basic structure, using limited resources, that could withstand a simulated tremor through the use of an earthquake shake table. Groups of students had to work together to creatively manage their resources and ideas to design the most feasible and realistic type of building. This activity provided a wealth of opportunities for the students to learn more about a type of disaster they do not experience in this part of the country. Due to the fact that most buildings in New York City were not designed to withstand earthquake shaking, the students were able to gain an appreciation for how difficult it would be to prepare every structure in the city for this type of event.

Living with earthquakes - development and usage of earthquake-resistant construction methods in European and Asian Antiquity

Science.gov (United States)

Kázmér, Miklós; Major, Balázs; Hariyadi, Agus; Pramumijoyo, Subagyo; Ditto Haryana, Yohanes

2010-05-01

outermost layer was treated this way, the core of the shrines was made of simple rectangular blocks. The system resisted both in-plane and out-of-plane shaking quite well, as proven by survival of many shrines for more than a millennium, and by fracturing of blocks instead of displacement during the 2006 Yogyakarta earthquake. Systematic use or disuse of known earthquake-resistant techniques in any one society depends on the perception of earthquake risk and on available financial resources. Earthquake-resistant construction practice is significantly more expensive than regular construction. Perception is influenced mostly by short individual and longer social memory. If earthquake recurrence time is longer than the preservation of social memory, if damaging quakes fade into the past, societies commit the same construction mistakes again and again. Length of the memory is possibly about a generation's lifetime. Events occurring less frequently than 25-30 years can be readily forgotten, and the risk of recurrence considered as negligible, not worth the costs of safe construction practices. (Example of recurring flash floods in Hungary.) Frequent earthquakes maintain safe construction practices, like the Java masonry technique throughout at least two centuries, and like the Fachwerk tradition on Modern Aegean Samos throughout 500 years of political and technological development. (OTKA K67583)

Earthquake loss estimation for a gas lifeline transportation system in Colombia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yamin, L.E.; Arambula, S.; Reyes, J.C. [Universidad de los Andes, Bogota (Colombia). Centro de Innovacion y Desarrollo Tecnologico; Belage, S.; Vega, A.; Gil, W. [TransGas de Occidente S.A., Bogota (Colombia)

2004-07-01

Methodologies are needed to estimate the seismic risk facing natural gas distribution systems in Colombia in order to establish insurance strategies, risk assessments and emergency plans. This study estimated the maximum probable losses associated with Colombia's 770 km long gas transportation system which stretches from Mariquita to Cali. The pipeline is vulnerable to seismic events, volcanic eruptions, extreme hydrological conditions, and their associated effects such as landslides, liquefaction and avalanches. A geographic information system (GIS) which includes seismic, volcanic, landslide and liquefaction hazards was used to estimate earthquake loss estimates for the natural gas distribution system. Elastic and inelastic finite element methods were used to evaluate the vulnerability of pipelines, bridges, underground crossings and valves. The results were incorporated into the GIS and were used to quantify the probable maximum losses for the system, the most critical associated event, the system's critical zones and the probable damage scenarios. The information was used to define insurance strategies, emergency and contingency plans. It was concluded that due to natural hazards, the natural gas distribution system is at moderate risk despite the low vulnerability of its components. Volcanic eruptions and large earthquakes could produce indirect phenomena such as landslides and liquefaction which could greatly influence the system and which would require adequate risk management. 14 refs., 1 tab., 8 figs.

Tank waste remediation system risk management plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zimmerman, B.D.

1998-01-01

The purpose of the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Risk Management Plan is to describe a consistent approach to risk management such that TWRS Project risks are identified and managed to achieve TWRS Project success. The Risk Management Plan implements the requirements of the Tank Waste Remediation System Systems Engineering Management Plan in the area of risk management. Figure ES-1 shows the relationship of the TWRS Risk Management Plan to other major TWRS Project documents. As the figure indicates, the Risk Management Plan is a tool used to develop and control TWRS Project work. It provides guidance on how TWRS Project risks will be assessed, analyzed, and handled, and it specifies format and content for the risk management lists, which are a primary product of the risk management process. In many instances, the Risk Management Plan references the TWRS Risk Management Procedure, which provides more detailed discussion of many risk management activities. The TWRS Risk Management Plan describes an ongoing program within the TWRS Project. The Risk Management Plan also provides guidance in support of the TWRS Readiness To-Proceed (RTP) assessment package

Thoracic Injuries in earthquake-related versus non-earthquake-related trauma patients: differentiation via Multi-detector Computed Tomography

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhi-hui Dong

2011-01-01

Full Text Available PURPOSE: Massive earthquakes are harmful to humankind. This study of a historical cohort aimed to investigate the difference between earthquake-related crush thoracic traumas and thoracic traumas unrelated to earthquakes using a multi-detector Computed Tomography (CT. METHODS: We retrospectively compared an earthquake-exposed cohort of 215 thoracic trauma crush victims of the Sichuan earthquake to a cohort of 215 non-earthquake-related thoracic trauma patients, focusing on the lesions and coexisting injuries to the thoracic cage and the pulmonary parenchyma and pleura using a multi-detector CT. RESULTS: The incidence of rib fracture was elevated in the earthquake-exposed cohort (143 vs. 66 patients in the non-earthquake-exposed cohort, Risk Ratio (RR = 2.2; p<0.001. Among these patients, those with more than 3 fractured ribs (106/143 vs. 41/66 patients, RR=1.2; p<0.05 or flail chest (45/143 vs. 11/66 patients, RR=1.9; p<0.05 were more frequently seen in the earthquake cohort. Earthquake-related crush injuries more frequently resulted in bilateral rib fractures (66/143 vs. 18/66 patients, RR= 1.7; p<0.01. Additionally, the incidence of non-rib fracture was higher in the earthquake cohort (85 vs. 60 patients, RR= 1.4; p<0.01. Pulmonary parenchymal and pleural injuries were more frequently seen in earthquake-related crush injuries (117 vs. 80 patients, RR=1.5 for parenchymal and 146 vs. 74 patients, RR = 2.0 for pleural injuries; p<0.001. Non-rib fractures, pulmonary parenchymal and pleural injuries had significant positive correlation with rib fractures in these two cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Thoracic crush traumas resulting from the earthquake were life threatening with a high incidence of bony thoracic fractures. The ribs were frequently involved in bilateral and severe types of fractures, which were accompanied by non-rib fractures, pulmonary parenchymal and pleural injuries.

THE ANALYSIS OF RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS WITHIN MANAGEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ROMANESCU MARCEL LAURENTIU

2016-10-01

Full Text Available This article highlights the risk analysis within management, focusing on how a company could practicaly integrate the risks management in the existing leading process. Subsequently, it is exemplified the way of manage risk effectively, which gives numerous advantages to all firms, including improving their decision-making process. All these lead to the conclusion that the degree of risk specific to companies is very high, but if managers make the best decisions then it can diminish it and all business activitiy and its income are not influenced by factors that could disturb in a negative way .

Environmental Health assessment 200 Days after Earthquake-Affected Region in East Azerbaijan Earthquake, North-Western of Iran, 2012

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alihossein Zeinalzadeh

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Evaluating of health status and explore the challenges of health problems that threaten human life following disasters and major earthquakes providing windows of opportunities for health care providers in future planning of disasters. The main purpose of this report was to survey the environmental sanitation statues after 200 days of the affected populations in earthquakes of East Azerbaijan, northwestern of Iran, 2012. The survey was carried out in earthquake zones 200 days after the occurrence of the earthquake. A single stage cluster sampling from among 95 villages damaged in the earthquake of 2012 East Azerbaijan of three towns Ahar, Varzeghan and Heris were selected. The data were collected with questionnaire, site visits and evaluation of water and sanitation. In a twin Earthquake, East Azerbaijan province that 399 villages of Ahar, Varzeghan, Heris, Tabriz and Kaleibar cities were affected and 356 (89.2 % villages were destroyed between 30-100%.  Evaluation of water and sanitation infrastructure after 200 days, shown that only half of these villages consumed healthy water with high coverage and adequate. Half of the villages in 200 days after the earthquake were covered safe drinking water (treated drinking water. The bacteriological quality of drinking-water supply of the affected area was assessed in randomly collected 146 samples from this region and ten (6.8% reported as unsuitable. Solid waste management facilities in residents have not been acceptable that affect public health. Solid waste disposal was done by district residents (cooperation rural residents 68.4%, 36.8% and 76.3% in Ahar, Varzeghan and Heris, respectively. Overall, the impact of infectious and communicable diseases after Earthquake was reported 42.1% (16 villages in the Varzeghan. The lack of geographical view with a focus in mountainous and rural areas, partial support and dispersion of earthquake-stricken people in affected villages and lack of participatory need

Correlation between Earthquakes and AE Monitoring of Historical Buildings in Seismic Areas

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Giuseppe Lacidogna

2015-12-01

Full Text Available In this contribution a new method for evaluating seismic risk in regional areas based on the acoustic emission (AE technique is proposed. Most earthquakes have precursors, i.e., phenomena of changes in the Earth’s physical-chemical properties that take place prior to an earthquake. Acoustic emissions in materials and earthquakes in the Earth’s crust, despite the fact that they take place on very different scales, are very similar phenomena; both are caused by a release of elastic energy from a source located in a medium. For the AE monitoring, two important constructions of Italian cultural heritage are considered: the chapel of the “Sacred Mountain of Varallo” and the “Asinelli Tower” of Bologna. They were monitored during earthquake sequences in their relative areas. By using the Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm, a statistical method of analysis was developed that detects AEs as earthquake precursors or aftershocks. Under certain conditions it was observed that AEs precede earthquakes. These considerations reinforce the idea that the AE monitoring can be considered an effective tool for earthquake risk evaluation.

Innovations in Quantitative Risk Management

CERN Document Server

Scherer, Matthias; Zagst, Rudi

2015-01-01

Quantitative models are omnipresent –but often controversially discussed– in todays risk management practice. New regulations, innovative financial products, and advances in valuation techniques provide a continuous flow of challenging problems for financial engineers and risk managers alike. Designing a sound stochastic model requires finding a careful balance between parsimonious model assumptions, mathematical viability, and interpretability of the output. Moreover, data requirements and the end-user training are to be considered as well. The KPMG Center of Excellence in Risk Management conference Risk Management Reloaded and this proceedings volume contribute to bridging the gap between academia –providing methodological advances– and practice –having a firm understanding of the economic conditions in which a given model is used. Discussed fields of application range from asset management, credit risk, and energy to risk management issues in insurance. Methodologically, dependence modeling...

Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Page, D

2012-06-01

Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

Awareness and understanding of earthquake hazards at school

Science.gov (United States)

Saraò, Angela; Peruzza, Laura; Barnaba, Carla; Bragato, Pier Luigi

2014-05-01

Schools have a fundamental role in broadening the understanding of natural hazard and risks and in building the awareness in the community. Recent earthquakes in Italy and worldwide, have clearly demonstrated that the poor perception of seismic hazards diminishes the effectiveness of mitigation countermeasures. Since years the Seismology's department of OGS is involved in education projects and public activities to raise awareness about earthquakes. Working together with teachers we aim at developing age-appropriate curricula to improve the student's knowledge about earthquakes, seismic safety, and seismic risk reduction. Some examples of education activities we performed during the last years are here presented. We show our experience with the primary and intermediate schools where, through hands-on activities, we explain the earthquake phenomenon and its effects to kids, but we illustrate also some teaching interventions for high school students. During the past years we lectured classes, we led laboratory and field activities, and we organized summer stages for selected students. In the current year we are leading a project aimed at training high school students on seismic safety through a multidisciplinary approach that involves seismologists, engineers and experts of safety procedures. To combine the objective of dissemination of earthquake culture, also through the knowledge of the past seismicity, with that of a safety culture, we use innovative educational techniques and multimedia resources. Students and teachers, under the guidance of an expert seismologist, organize a combination of hands-on activities for understanding earthquakes in the lab through cheap tools and instrumentations At selected schools we provided the low cost seismometers of the QuakeCatcher network (http://qcn.stanford.edu) for recording earthquakes, and we trained teachers to use such instruments in the lab and to analyze recorded data. Within the same project we are going to train

The role of INGVterremoti blog in information management during the earthquake sequence in central Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maurizio Pignone

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we describe the role the INGVterremoti blog in information management during the first part of the earthquake sequence in central Italy (August 24 to September 30. In the last four years, we have been working on the INGVterremoti blog in order to provide quick updates on the ongoing seismic activity in Italy and in-depth scientific information. These include articles on specific historical earthquakes, seismic hazard, geological interpretations, source models from different type of data, effects at the surface, and so on. We have delivered information in quasi-real-time also about all the recent magnitude M≥4.0 earthquakes in Italy, the strongest events in the Mediterranean and in the world. During the 2016 central Italy, the INGVterremoti blog has continuously released information about seismic sequences with three types of posts: i updates on the ongoing seismic activity; ii reports on the activities carried out by the INGV teams in the field and any other working groups; iii in-depth scientific articles describing some specific analysis and results. All the blog posts have been shared automatically and in real time on the other social media of the INGVterremoti platform, also to counter the bad information and to fight rumors. These include Facebook, Twitter and INGVterremoti App on IOS and Android. As well, both the main INGV home page (http://www.ingv.it and the INGV earthquake portal (http://terremoti.ingv.it have published the contents of the blog on dedicated pages that were fed automatically. The work done day by day on the INGVterremoti blog has been coordinated with the INGV Press Office that has written several press releases based on the contents of the blog. Since August 24, 53 articles were published on the blog they have had more than 1.9 million views and 1 million visitors. The peak in the number of views, which was more than 800,000 in a single day, was registered on August 24, 2016, following the M 6

Value of risk management

OpenAIRE

Vik, Marie Amdal

2012-01-01

Master's thesis in Risk management The overall aim of this study was to discuss the validity of the hypothesis that risk management contributes with added value to projects and the enterprise holding the projects, and consequently to the enterprise’s stakeholders. To examine this hypothesis, a case study of three projects taken from the same portfolio at Statoil was selected. The projects were said to have an active risk management. Data was collected from the project’s documentation as...

Supply Cain Risk Management

OpenAIRE

Goodwin, Les

2011-01-01

“The management of supply chain risk is crucial to any business, more so to Rolls Royce who face an almost doubling of load within the next 10 years. So what is supply chain risk management and how well is it deployed within an operational business of Rolls Royce? What are the tools and techniques available and what are the key issues around implementing world class supply chain risk management with a Supply Chain Unit within Rolls Royce?”

Natural Time and Nowcasting Earthquakes: Are Large Global Earthquakes Temporally Clustered?

Science.gov (United States)

Luginbuhl, Molly; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.

2018-02-01

The objective of this paper is to analyze the temporal clustering of large global earthquakes with respect to natural time, or interevent count, as opposed to regular clock time. To do this, we use two techniques: (1) nowcasting, a new method of statistically classifying seismicity and seismic risk, and (2) time series analysis of interevent counts. We chose the sequences of M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and M_{λ } ≥ 8.0 earthquakes from the global centroid moment tensor (CMT) catalog from 2004 to 2016 for analysis. A significant number of these earthquakes will be aftershocks of the largest events, but no satisfactory method of declustering the aftershocks in clock time is available. A major advantage of using natural time is that it eliminates the need for declustering aftershocks. The event count we utilize is the number of small earthquakes that occur between large earthquakes. The small earthquake magnitude is chosen to be as small as possible, such that the catalog is still complete based on the Gutenberg-Richter statistics. For the CMT catalog, starting in 2004, we found the completeness magnitude to be M_{σ } ≥ 5.1. For the nowcasting method, the cumulative probability distribution of these interevent counts is obtained. We quantify the distribution using the exponent, β, of the best fitting Weibull distribution; β = 1 for a random (exponential) distribution. We considered 197 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and found β = 0.83 ± 0.08. We considered 15 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 8.0, but this number was considered too small to generate a meaningful distribution. For comparison, we generated synthetic catalogs of earthquakes that occur randomly with the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude statistics. We considered a synthetic catalog of 1.97 × 10^5 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 earthquakes and found β = 0.99 ± 0.01. The random catalog converted to natural time was also random. We then generated 1.5 × 10^4 synthetic catalogs with 197 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 in each catalog and

Credit risk management in banks

OpenAIRE

Pětníková, Tereza

2014-01-01

The subject of this diploma thesis is managing credit risk in banks, as the most significant risk faced by banks. The aim of this work is to define the basic techniques, tools and methods that are used by banks to manage credit risk. The first part of this work focuses on defining these procedures and describes the entire process of credit risk management, from the definition of credit risk, describing credit strategy and policy, organizational structure, defining the most used credit risk mi...

Management of business risks

OpenAIRE

BAZARBAY A.

2015-01-01

The article presents methodological ideas concerning the problem of risk management. Special attention is paid to increasing of enterprises' operating efficiency by means of risk-management system development in business organizations.

The Uncertainties of Risk Management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vinnari, Eija; Skærbæk, Peter

2014-01-01

for expanding risk management. More generally, such uncertainties relate to the professional identities and responsibilities of operational managers as defined by the framing devices. Originality/value – The paper offers three contributions to the extant literature: first, it shows how risk management itself......Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyse the implementation of risk management as a tool for internal audit activities, focusing on unexpected effects or uncertainties generated during its application. Design/methodology/approach – Public and confidential documents as well as semi......-structured interviews are analysed through the lens of actor-network theory to identify the effects of risk management devices in a Finnish municipality. Findings – The authors found that risk management, rather than reducing uncertainty, itself created unexpected uncertainties that would otherwise not have emerged...

Risk management and corporate value

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Milan Cupic

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The paper presents a theoretical framework for assessing the impact of risk management on corporate value. As the relevant factors that determine this impact, the paper analyzes market imperfections and investors’ risk aversion. The results of the present research indicate that risk management contributes to an increase in corporate value if, under the influence of market imperfections, corporate risk exposure is concave. As an expression of market imperfections, the paper analyzes the costs of financial distress, agency costs, and taxation. The results of the research also indicate that the risk management policy should not aim to minimize, but rather optimize risk exposure, by taking into account the costs of risk management, investors’ risk aversion and the competitive advantage a corporation has on the relevant market.

CEA: risk management assessment 2011

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bigot, Bernard; Bonnevie, Edwige; Maillot, Bernard

2012-01-01

This report proposes a qualitative and quantitative overview of CEA activities in the field of risk management during 2011. These activities concerned the impact on the environment, the safety of installations, the management of professional risks (safety and health at work), the radiological protection of workers, the transports of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, the management of emergency situations, the management of law risks, controls and audits

Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

2013-04-01

Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

Uncertainties in Earthquake Loss Analysis: A Case Study From Southern California

Science.gov (United States)

Mahdyiar, M.; Guin, J.

2005-12-01

Probabilistic earthquake hazard and loss analyses play important roles in many areas of risk management, including earthquake related public policy and insurance ratemaking. Rigorous loss estimation for portfolios of properties is difficult since there are various types of uncertainties in all aspects of modeling and analysis. It is the objective of this study to investigate the sensitivity of earthquake loss estimation to uncertainties in regional seismicity, earthquake source parameters, ground motions, and sites' spatial correlation on typical property portfolios in Southern California. Southern California is an attractive region for such a study because it has a large population concentration exposed to significant levels of seismic hazard. During the last decade, there have been several comprehensive studies of most regional faults and seismogenic sources. There have also been detailed studies on regional ground motion attenuations and regional and local site responses to ground motions. This information has been used by engineering seismologists to conduct regional seismic hazard and risk analysis on a routine basis. However, one of the more difficult tasks in such studies is the proper incorporation of uncertainties in the analysis. From the hazard side, there are uncertainties in the magnitudes, rates and mechanisms of the seismic sources and local site conditions and ground motion site amplifications. From the vulnerability side, there are considerable uncertainties in estimating the state of damage of buildings under different earthquake ground motions. From an analytical side, there are challenges in capturing the spatial correlation of ground motions and building damage, and integrating thousands of loss distribution curves with different degrees of correlation. In this paper we propose to address some of these issues by conducting loss analyses of a typical small portfolio in southern California, taking into consideration various source and ground

Topographic changes and their driving factors after 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Li, C.; Wang, M.; Xie, J.; Liu, K.

2017-12-01

The Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake caused topographic change in the stricken areas because of the formation of numerous coseismic landslides. The emergence of new landslides and debris flows and movement of loose materials under the driving force of heavy rainfall could further shape the local topography. Dynamic topographic changes in mountainous areas stricken by major earthquakes have a strong linkage to the development and occurrence of secondary disasters. However, little attention has been paid to continuously monitoring mountain environment change after such earthquakes. A digital elevation model (DEM) is the main feature of the terrain surface, in our research, we extracted DEM in 2013 and 2015 of a typical mountainous area severely impacted by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake from the ZY-3 stereo pair images with validation by field measurement. Combined with the elevation dataset in 2002 and 2010, we quantitatively assessed elevation changes in different years and qualitatively analyzed spatiotemporal variation of the terrain and mass movement across the study area. The results show that the earthquake stricken area experienced substantial elevation changes caused by seismic forces and subsequent rainfalls. Meanwhile, deposits after the earthquake are mainly accumulated on the river-channels and mountain ridges and deep gullies which increase the risk of other geo-hazards. And the heavy rainfalls after the earthquake have become the biggest driver of elevation reduction, which overwhelmed elevation increase during the major earthquake. Our study provided a better understanding of subsequent hazards and risks faced by residents and communities stricken by major earthquakes.

CEA: assessment of risk management 2011

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-06-01

This report proposes an overview of CEA activities in the field of risk management in different areas: impact on the environment, installation safety, management of occupational risks (occupational health and safety), radiological protection of workers, transportation of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, management of emergency situations, management of law risks, controls and audits. It finally presents the risk management department

Mapping individuals' earthquake preparedness in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Wu

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Disaster preparedness is critical for reducing potential impact. This paper contributes to current knowledge of disaster preparedness using representative national sample data from China, which faces high earthquake risks in many areas of the country. The adoption of earthquake preparedness activities by the general public, including five indicators of material preparedness and five indicators of awareness preparedness, were surveyed and 3245 respondents from all 31 provinces of Mainland China participated in the survey. Linear regression models and logit regression models were used to analyze the effects of potential influencing factors. Overall, the preparedness levels are not satisfied, with a material preparation score of 3.02 (1–5, and awareness preparation score of 2.79 (1–5, nationally. Meanwhile, residents from western China, which has higher earthquake risk, have higher degrees of preparedness. The concern for disaster risk reduction (DRR and the concern for building safety and participation in public affairs are consistent positive predictors of both material and awareness preparedness. The demographic and socioeconomic variables' effects, such as gender, age, education, income, urban/rural division, and building size, vary according to different preparedness activities. Finally, the paper concludes with a discussion of the theoretical contribution and potential implementation.

Assessment of risks of loose landslide deposits formed by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, S.; Zhang, L. M.; Peng, M.; Zhang, L. L.; Zhao, H. F.; Chen, H. X.

2012-05-01

A Geographic Information System (GIS)-based quantitative risk assessment methodology was adopted to evaluate the risks of loose deposits formed by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake along a highway near the epicenter. A total of 305 loose deposits with a total volume of 4.0 × 107 m3 has been identified. A physical model was used to determine the failure probability of these loose deposits under six rainfall scenarios, assuming the loose deposits as infinite slopes. The calculated probability of rain-induced slope failures is verified by the recorded landslides at the same site during a storm in 2010. Seventy-nine out of the 112 rain-induced loose deposit failures are predicted by the reliability analysis, with an accuracy of 71%. The results of reliability analysis and information on the consequence of these rain-induced landslides enable the estimation of the annual societal and individual risks of the loose deposits. Under the rainfall scenarios of 30 mm/12 h and 70 mm/12 h, the estimated annual societal risks reach 8.8 and 7.5, respectively, and the individual risks reach 0.05 and 0.04, respectively, which are very high compared with present risk acceptance criteria. The preliminary assessment provides a benchmark for studying the long-term risks of these loose deposits and engineering decision.

Risk management at university

OpenAIRE

Ivanova, H.; Abramovich, S.

2013-01-01

This article observes the basic recommendations for the risk management system in higher education as an example Yanka Kupala State University of Grodno. Consider the risk-management standard that based in a process approach

Dynamic Assessment of Seismic Risk (DASR) by Multi-parametric Observations: Preliminary Results of PRIME experiment within the PRE-EARTHQUAKES EU-FP7 Project

Science.gov (United States)

Tramutoli, V.; Inan, S.; Jakowski, N.; Pulinets, S. A.; Romanov, A.; Filizzola, C.; Shagimuratov, I.; Pergola, N.; Ouzounov, D. P.; Papadopoulos, G. A.; Parrot, M.; Genzano, N.; Lisi, M.; Alparlsan, E.; Wilken, V.; Tsybukia, K.; Romanov, A.; Paciello, R.; Zakharenkova, I.; Romano, G.

2012-12-01

The integration of different observations together with the refinement of data analysis methods, is generally expected to improve our present knowledge of preparatory phases of earthquakes and of their possible precursors. This is also the main goal of PRE-EARTHQUAKES (Processing Russian and European EARTH observations for earthQUAKE precursors Studies) the FP7 Project which, to this aim, committed together, different international expertise and observational capabilities, in the last 2 years. In the learning phase of the project, different parameters (e.g. thermal anomalies, total electron content, radon concentration, etc.), measured from ground and satellite systems and analyzed by using different data analysis approaches, have been studied for selected geographic areas and specific seismic events in the past. Since July 2012 the PRIME (PRE-EARTHQUAKES Real-time Integration and Monitoring Experiment) started attempting to perform, on the base of independent observations collected and integrated in real-time through the PEG (PRE-EARTHQUAKES Geo-portal), a Dynamic Assessment of Seismic Risk (DASR) on selected geographic areas of Europe (Italy-Greece-Turkey) and Asia (Kamchatka, Sakhalin, Japan). In this paper, results so far achieved as well as the potential and opportunities they open for a worldwide Earthquake Observation System (EQuOS) - as a dedicated component of GEOSS (Global Earth Observation System of Systems) - will be presented.

Role of NDT in risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Porter, Jr. James F.

2009-01-01

Risk management is identifying and then managing threats that could severely affect or bring down a company. This involves reviewing the operations of the company to include the process, equipment, procedures and personnel. Potential threats are then identified including their probability of occurrence, and then taking appropriate actions to address the most likely threats. Traditionally, risk management was thought of as mostly getting the right insurance. However, this impression of risk management has changed dramatically. With the recent increase in rules and regulations and optimizing utilization of key resources, risk management is becoming a management practice that is as important as financial or facilities management. In ideal risk management, a prioritization process is followed whereby the risks with the greatest loss and greatest probability of occurring are handled first, and risks with lower probability of occurrence and lower loss are handled in descending order. In practice the process can be very difficult, and balancing between risks with a high probability of occurrence but lower loss versus a risk with high but lower probability of occurrence can often be mishandled. (author)

Exploring Earthquakes in Real-Time

Science.gov (United States)

Bravo, T. K.; Kafka, A. L.; Coleman, B.; Taber, J. J.

2013-12-01

Earthquakes capture the attention of students and inspire them to explore the Earth. Adding the ability to view and explore recordings of significant and newsworthy earthquakes in real-time makes the subject even more compelling. To address this opportunity, the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS), in collaboration with Moravian College, developed ';jAmaSeis', a cross-platform application that enables students to access real-time earthquake waveform data. Students can watch as the seismic waves are recorded on their computer, and can be among the first to analyze the data from an earthquake. jAmaSeis facilitates student centered investigations of seismological concepts using either a low-cost educational seismograph or streamed data from other educational seismographs or from any seismic station that sends data to the IRIS Data Management System. After an earthquake, students can analyze the seismograms to determine characteristics of earthquakes such as time of occurrence, distance from the epicenter to the station, magnitude, and location. The software has been designed to provide graphical clues to guide students in the analysis and assist in their interpretations. Since jAmaSeis can simultaneously record up to three stations from anywhere on the planet, there are numerous opportunities for student driven investigations. For example, students can explore differences in the seismograms from different distances from an earthquake and compare waveforms from different azimuthal directions. Students can simultaneously monitor seismicity at a tectonic plate boundary and in the middle of the plate regardless of their school location. This can help students discover for themselves the ideas underlying seismic wave propagation, regional earthquake hazards, magnitude-frequency relationships, and the details of plate tectonics. The real-time nature of the data keeps the investigations dynamic, and offers students countless opportunities to explore.

Cattle farmers’ perceptions of risk and risk management strategies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bishu, Kinfe G.; O'Reilly, Seamus; Lahiff, Edward

2018-01-01

This study analyzes cattle farmers’ perceptions of risk and risk management strategies in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia. We use survey data from a sample of 356 farmers based on multistage random sampling. Factor analysis is employed to classify scores of risk and management strategies, and multiple...... utilization were perceived as the most important strategies for managing risks. Livestock disease and labor shortage were perceived as less of a risk by farmers who adopted the practice of zero grazing compared to other farmers, pointing to the potential of this practice for risk reduction. We find strong...... evidence that farmers engage in multiple risk management practices in order to reduce losses from cattle morbidity and mortality. The results suggest that government strategies that aim at reducing farmers’ risk need to be tailored to specific farm and farmer characteristics. Findings from this study have...

The Key to Risk Management: Management

OpenAIRE

Adrian E. Tschoegl

2000-01-01

The Barings, Daiwa Bank and Sumitomo Corp. financial debacles in the mid-1990s suggest that management failures rather than misfortune, errors, or complexity are a major source of the risk of financial debacles. These errors are systematic and are a concommittant of the structure of trading and of human nature. Risk management systems must take these facts into account.

Strong intermediate-depth Vreancea earthquakes: Damage capacity in Bulgaria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kouteva-Guentcheva, M.P.; Paskaleva, I.P.; Panza, G.F.

2008-08-01

The sustainable development of the society depends not only on a reasonable policy for economical growth but also on the reasonable management of natural risks. The regional earthquake danger due to the Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes dominates the hazard of NE Bulgaria. These quakes have particularly long-period and far-reaching effects, causing damages at large epicentral distances. Vrancea events energy attenuates considerably less rapidly than that of the wave field radiated by the seismically active zones in Bulgaria. The available strong motion records at Russe, NE Bulgaria, due to both Vrancea events - August 30, 1986 and May 30, 1990 show higher seismic response spectra amplitudes for periods up to 0.6 s for the horizontal components, compared to the values given in the Bulgarian Code and Eurocode 8. A neo-deterministic analytical procedure which models the wavefield generated by a realistic earthquake source, as it propagates through a laterally varying anelastic medium, is applied to obtain the seismic loading at Russe. After proper validation, using the few available data and parametric analyses, from the synthesized seismic signals damage capacity of selected scenario Vrancea quakes is estimated and compared with available capacity curves for some reinforced concrete and masonry structures, representative of the Balkan Region. The performed modelling has shown that the earthquake focal mechanisms control the seismic loading much more than the local geology, and that the site response should be analyzed by considering the whole thickness of sediments until the bedrock, and not only the topmost 30 m. (author)

Framework for systematic risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knief, R.A.; Mahn, J.A.; Briant, V.S.; Lee, R.B.; Long, R.L.

1991-01-01

The first paper of the Symposium described GPU Nuclear's Risk Management Group (RMG) and the use of literature search and interviews in a extensive study of risk management. One of the most important goals of the study was to identify comprehensive approaches to managing risk in the nuclear and major high-technology industries. This paper discusses RMG's multi-step generic risk-management process consisting of the following steps to: identify hazards; screen hazards and identify preventive actions, including costs; evaluate hazards for severity, probable frequency, and cost of preventive actions; prioritize preventive actions (preference to high risk and low cost); implement preventive actions; monitor and provide feedback

The Christchurch earthquake stroke incidence study.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Teddy Y; Cheung, Jeanette; Cole, David; Fink, John N

2014-03-01

We examined the impact of major earthquakes on acute stroke admissions by a retrospective review of stroke admissions in the 6 weeks following the 4 September 2010 and 22 February 2011 earthquakes. The control period was the corresponding 6 weeks in the previous year. In the 6 weeks following the September 2010 earthquake there were 97 acute stroke admissions, with 79 (81.4%) ischaemic infarctions. This was similar to the 2009 control period which had 104 acute stroke admissions, of whom 80 (76.9%) had ischaemic infarction. In the 6 weeks following the February 2011 earthquake, there were 71 stroke admissions, and 61 (79.2%) were ischaemic infarction. This was less than the 96 strokes (72 [75%] ischaemic infarction) in the corresponding control period. None of the comparisons were statistically significant. There was also no difference in the rate of cardioembolic infarction from atrial fibrillation between the study periods. Patients admitted during the February 2011 earthquake period were less likely to be discharged directly home when compared to the control period (31.2% versus 46.9%, p=0.036). There was no observable trend in the number of weekly stroke admissions between the 2 weeks leading to and 6 weeks following the earthquakes. Our results suggest that severe psychological stress from earthquakes did not influence the subsequent short term risk of acute stroke, but the severity of the earthquake in February 2011 and associated civil structural damages may have influenced the pattern of discharge for stroke patients. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of earthquake source complexity and land elevation data resolution on tsunami hazard assessment and fatality estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Muhammad, Ario; Goda, Katsuichiro

2018-03-01

This study investigates the impact of model complexity in source characterization and digital elevation model (DEM) resolution on the accuracy of tsunami hazard assessment and fatality estimation through a case study in Padang, Indonesia. Two types of earthquake source models, i.e. complex and uniform slip models, are adopted by considering three resolutions of DEMs, i.e. 150 m, 50 m, and 10 m. For each of the three grid resolutions, 300 complex source models are generated using new statistical prediction models of earthquake source parameters developed from extensive finite-fault models of past subduction earthquakes, whilst 100 uniform slip models are constructed with variable fault geometry without slip heterogeneity. The results highlight that significant changes to tsunami hazard and fatality estimates are observed with regard to earthquake source complexity and grid resolution. Coarse resolution (i.e. 150 m) leads to inaccurate tsunami hazard prediction and fatality estimation, whilst 50-m and 10-m resolutions produce similar results. However, velocity and momentum flux are sensitive to the grid resolution and hence, at least 10-m grid resolution needs to be implemented when considering flow-based parameters for tsunami hazard and risk assessments. In addition, the results indicate that the tsunami hazard parameters and fatality number are more sensitive to the complexity of earthquake source characterization than the grid resolution. Thus, the uniform models are not recommended for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessments. Finally, the findings confirm that uncertainties of tsunami hazard level and fatality in terms of depth, velocity and momentum flux can be captured and visualized through the complex source modeling approach. From tsunami risk management perspectives, this indeed creates big data, which are useful for making effective and robust decisions.

The NASA risk management program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buchbinder, B.; Philipson, L.L.

1989-01-01

This paper reports that the NASA Risk Management Program has been established to ensure the appropriate application of risk-based procedures in support of the elimination, reduction, or acceptance of significant safety risks of concern in NASA. The term appropriate is emphasized, in that the particular procedures applied to each given risk are to reflect its character and prioritized importance, the technological and economic feasibility of its treatment. A number of key documents have been produced in support of this implementation. Databases, risk analysis tools, and risk communication procedures requisite to the execution of the risk management functions also are being developed or documented. Several risk management applications have been made and a comprehensive application to a major new NASA program is underway. This paper summarizes the development and current status of the NASA Risk Management Program. Some principal actions that have been carried out in NASA in consonance with the program are noted particularly, and views are presented on the program's likely future directions

Risk Management in Mergers and Acquisitions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dmitry O. Verdiev

2015-01-01

Full Text Available M&A statistics show that less than a third of newly merged companies has realized their planned synergistic effects and increased shareholder value. According to the author, such disgusting situation is due to improper planning and failure of corporate management to understand the importance of risk management in M&A. Lack of practice in identification, evaluation, mitigation and regular monitoring of risks leads to the situation when many companies merge despite the fact that the merger bears substantial risks. Corporate management fails to include risk mitigation expenses in merger costs. In many cases, risk mitigation expenses may be so substantive that the merger loses its attractiveness. Only few companies implement risk management methodology while planning M&A activity. This methodology may anticipate and minimize the consequences of various risk factors that negatively influence integration process. The article suggests an implementation of risk management best practice. This risk management best practice may act as an effective tool of successful realization of synergistic effects in M&A and may be helpful in increasing shareholder value in post-merger period. Risk management is conducted throughout the stages of merger and includes identification, analysis, assessment, management and monitoring of risks. Implementation of risk management at early stages of merger planning significantly decreases uncertainty in relation to achievement of financial and operational goals of newly merged company. The article provides with typical M&A risk matrix that may be adapted for specific M&A project. Risk matrix includes a register of risks sorted by stages of M&A deal, quality assessment of their probability, influence and impact on merger as well as risk mitigation methods.

Risk Management in Cocurricular Activities.

Science.gov (United States)

Webb, Edward M.

1988-01-01

Discusses risk management for colleges' cocurricular activities. Discusses tort liability, contributory negligence, and assumption of risk. Provides six concrete steps for managing risks responsibly and professionally: adopting an educational mission statement, assigning risk to others, establishing safety standards, training club advisors,…

Behavioral Response in the Immediate Aftermath of Shaking: Earthquakes in Christchurch and Wellington, New Zealand, and Hitachi, Japan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ihnji Jon

2016-11-01

Full Text Available This study examines people’s response actions in the first 30 min after shaking stopped following earthquakes in Christchurch and Wellington, New Zealand, and Hitachi, Japan. Data collected from 257 respondents in Christchurch, 332 respondents in Hitachi, and 204 respondents in Wellington revealed notable similarities in some response actions immediately after the shaking stopped. In all four events, people were most likely to contact family members and seek additional information about the situation. However, there were notable differences among events in the frequency of resuming previous activities. Actions taken in the first 30 min were weakly related to: demographic variables, earthquake experience, contextual variables, and actions taken during the shaking, but were significantly related to perceived shaking intensity, risk perception and affective responses to the shaking, and damage/infrastructure disruption. These results have important implications for future research and practice because they identify promising avenues for emergency managers to communicate seismic risks and appropriate responses to risk area populations.

RISK MANAGEMENT OF GERMAN FRUIT PRODUCERS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Annkatrin PORSCH

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Horticultural farms in Germany face substantial business risks. However, fruit farms often struggle to implement appropriate risk management processes, and the risk management literature widely has ignored this farm type. The aim of the study was to improve the assessment of risks by farmers and the choice of suitable risk management instruments. Therefore, a risk management process based on subjective probabilities and suitable for small and medium-sized farms was developed, considering the specific needs of family run businesses. An online survey was conducted to achieve a comprehensive view of the risk perception and risk management practices of German fruit producers. Price and production risks are the most relevant risk categories for fruit farmers. However, among single risk sources, those in the people risk category were seen as the most important. Results show significant interactions among risk categories and a significant correlation between loss experience and the rating of risk categories. The assumption that risk averse farmers generally rate risks higher than risk neutral or risk seeking farmers cannot be confirmed. Diversification seems to be the most important risk management instrument for many fruit producers, especially diversification of marketing channels, farm income, and production activities. Further research should focus on the apparent inconsistency between the satisfaction with instruments reported by farmers and the actual implementation of many of them (e.g., hail insurance and anti-hail net. Furthermore, there is a need for research, to develop decision models considering the interactions of risks and risk management instruments, loss experience and risk seeking attitudes.

Assessment of earthquake-induced landslides hazard in El Salvador after the 2001 earthquakes using macroseismic analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Esposito, Eliana; Violante, Crescenzo; Giunta, Giuseppe; Ángel Hernández, Miguel

2016-04-01

Two strong earthquakes and a number of smaller aftershocks struck El Salvador in the year 2001. The January 13 2001 earthquake, Mw 7.7, occurred along the Cocos plate, 40 km off El Salvador southern coast. It resulted in about 1300 deaths and widespread damage, mainly due to massive landsliding. Two of the largest earthquake-induced landslides, Las Barioleras and Las Colinas (about 2x105 m3) produced major damage to buildings and infrastructures and 500 fatalities. A neighborhood in Santa Tecla, west of San Salvador, was destroyed. The February 13 2001 earthquake, Mw 6.5, occurred 40 km east-southeast of San Salvador. This earthquake caused over 300 fatalities and triggered several landslides over an area of 2,500 km2 mostly in poorly consolidated volcaniclastic deposits. The La Leona landslide (5-7x105 m3) caused 12 fatalities and extensive damage to the Panamerican Highway. Two very large landslides of 1.5 km3 and 12 km3 produced hazardous barrier lakes at Rio El Desague and Rio Jiboa, respectively. More than 16.000 landslides occurred throughout the country after both quakes; most of them occurred in pyroclastic deposits, with a volume less than 1x103m3. The present work aims to define the relationship between the above described earthquake intensity, size and areal distribution of induced landslides, as well as to refine the earthquake intensity in sparsely populated zones by using landslide effects. Landslides triggered by the 2001 seismic sequences provided useful indication for a realistic seismic hazard assessment, providing a basis for understanding, evaluating, and mapping the hazard and risk associated with earthquake-induced landslides.

National Earthquake Hazards Program at a Crossroads

Science.gov (United States)

Showstack, Randy

The U.S.National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, which turns 25 years old on 1 October 2003, is passing through two major transitions, which experts said either could weaken or strengthen the program. On 1 March, a federal government reorganization placed NEHRP's lead agency,the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA),within the new Department of Homeland Security (DHS). A number of earthquake scientists and engineers expressed concern that NEHRP, which already faces budgetary and organizational challenges, and lacks visibility,could end up being marginalized in the bureaucratic shuffle. Some experts, though,as well as agency officials, said they hope DHS will recognize synergies between dealing with earthquakes and terrorist attacks.

Study of International Standards of Risk Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dykan Volodymyr L.

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The goal of the article lies in the study of existing international standards of risk management, an important factor of improvement of risk management in domestic corporations and enterprises and development of recommendations on application of international standards in Ukraine, in particular, within the framework of building corporate systems of risk management. The conducted study shows that approaches on organisation of the process of risk management, used in standards of risk management, are of general character and differ with the degree of detailing. Their undoubted value in development of risk management in Ukraine is identification of a general direction of building corporate systems of risk management in practice. The said approaches at the national and corporate levels of standardisation in Ukraine within the framework of building corporate systems of risk management would allow improvement of risk management in corporations and enterprises. The prospect of further studies of domestic specialists in the field of risk management is development of the domestic standard of risk management with consideration of modern domestic specific features of development of risk management in Ukraine and leading foreign experience.

People's perspectives and expectations on preparedness against earthquakes: Tehran case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Jahangiri, Katayoun; Izadkhah, Yasamin Ostovar; Montazeri, Ali; Hosseinip, Mahmood

2010-06-01

Public education is one of the most important elements of earthquake preparedness. The present study identifies methods and appropriate strategies for public awareness and education on preparedness for earthquakes based on people's opinions in the city of Tehran. This was a cross-sectional study and a door-to-door survey of residents from 22 municipal districts in Tehran, the capital city of Iran. It involved a total of 1 211 individuals aged 15 and above. People were asked about different methods of public information and education, as well as the type of information needed for earthquake preparedness. "Enforcing the building contractors' compliance with the construction codes and regulations" was ranked as the first priority by 33.4% of the respondents. Over 70% of the participants (71.7%) regarded TV as the most appropriate means of media communication to prepare people for an earthquake. This was followed by "radio" which was selected by 51.6% of respondents. Slightly over 95% of the respondents believed that there would soon be an earthquake in the country, and 80% reported that they obtained this information from "the general public". Seventy percent of the study population felt that news of an earthquake should be communicated through the media. However, over fifty (58%) of the participants believed that governmental officials and agencies are best qualified to disseminate information about the risk of an imminent earthquake. Just over half (50.8%) of the respondents argued that the authorities do not usually provide enough information to people about earthquakes and the probability of their occurrence. Besides seismologists, respondents thought astronauts (32%), fortunetellers (32.3%), religious figures (34%), meteorologists (23%), and paleontologists (2%) can correctly predict the occurrence of an earthquake. Furthermore, 88.6% listed aid centers, mosques, newspapers and TV as the most important sources of information during the aftermath of an earthquake

Individual Property Risk Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael S. Finke

2010-01-01

Full Text Available This paper reviews household property risk management and estimates normatively optimal choice under theoretical assumptions. Although risk retention limits are common in the financial planning industry, estimates of optimal risk retention that include both financial and human wealth far exceed limits commonly recommended. Households appear to frame property losses differently from other wealth losses leading to wealth-reducing, excess risk transfer. Possible theoretical explanations for excess sensitivity to loss are reviewed. Differences between observed and optimal risk management imply a large potential gain from improved choice.

Earthquake prediction rumors can help in building earthquake awareness: the case of May the 11th 2011 in Rome (Italy)

Science.gov (United States)

Amato, A.; Arcoraci, L.; Casarotti, E.; Cultrera, G.; Di Stefano, R.; Margheriti, L.; Nostro, C.; Selvaggi, G.; May-11 Team

2012-04-01

Banner headlines in an Italian newspaper read on May 11, 2011: "Absence boom in offices: the urban legend in Rome become psychosis". This was the effect of a large-magnitude earthquake prediction in Rome for May 11, 2011. This prediction was never officially released, but it grew up in Internet and was amplified by media. It was erroneously ascribed to Raffaele Bendandi, an Italian self-taught natural scientist who studied planetary motions and related them to earthquakes. Indeed, around May 11, 2011, there was a planetary alignment and this increased the earthquake prediction credibility. Given the echo of this earthquake prediction, INGV decided to organize on May 11 (the same day the earthquake was predicted to happen) an Open Day in its headquarter in Rome to inform on the Italian seismicity and the earthquake physics. The Open Day was preceded by a press conference two days before, attended by about 40 journalists from newspapers, local and national TV's, press agencies and web news magazines. Hundreds of articles appeared in the following two days, advertising the 11 May Open Day. On May 11 the INGV headquarter was peacefully invaded by over 3,000 visitors from 9am to 9pm: families, students, civil protection groups and many journalists. The program included conferences on a wide variety of subjects (from social impact of rumors to seismic risk reduction) and distribution of books and brochures, in addition to several activities: meetings with INGV researchers to discuss scientific issues, visits to the seismic monitoring room (open 24h/7 all year), guided tours through interactive exhibitions on earthquakes and Earth's deep structure. During the same day, thirteen new videos have also been posted on our youtube/INGVterremoti channel to explain the earthquake process and hazard, and to provide real time periodic updates on seismicity in Italy. On May 11 no large earthquake happened in Italy. The initiative, built up in few weeks, had a very large feedback

[The relevance of clinical risk management].

Science.gov (United States)

Gulino, Matteo; Vergallo, Gianluca Montanari; Frati, Paola

2011-01-01

Medical activity includes a risk of possible injury or complications for the patients, that should drive the Health Care Institutions to introduce and/ or improve clinical Risk management instruments. Although Italy is still lacking a National project of Clinical Risk Management, a number of efforts have been made by different Italian Regions to introduce instruments of risk management. In addition, most of National Health Care Institutions include actually a Department specifically in charge to manage the clinical risk. Despite the practical difficulties, the results obtained until now suggest that the risk management may represent a useful instrument to contribute to the reduction of errors in clinical conduct. Indeed, the introduction of adequate instruments of prevention and management of clinical risk may help to ameliorate the quality of health care Institution services.

Enterprise Content Management Implementation and Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaroslava Klegová

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Enterprise Content Management (ECM solutions are commonly used in many areas such as document management, record management, digital asset management, etc. Key features of ECM systems are capturing, indexing, preserving and retrieving of digital information. The state-of-the- art ECM solution can help revolutionize document management and further automated business processes which can lead to better decisions and competitive advantage. Risk management can reduce project failure and that is why controlling risk in ECM implementation projects is considered to be a major contributor to project success. To manage software risk, the first step is to identify a list of ECM projects’ risks. The present paper provides an overview of ECM implementation risks and contains findings from a small survey on experience of ECM implementation and risk in Czech enterprises. Risk of implementation in the public sector is discussed more deeply with case study examples.

Preliminary report on Petatlan, Mexico: earthquake of 14 March 1979

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1979-01-01

A major earthquake, M/sub s/ = 7.6, occurred off the southern coast of Mexico near the town of Petatlan on 14 March 1979. The earthquake ruptured a 50-km-long section of the Middle American subduction zone, a seismic gap last ruptured by a major earthquake (M/sub s/ = 7.5) in 1943. Since adjacent gaps of approximately the same size have not had a large earthquake since 1911, and one of these suffered three major earthquakes in four years (1907, 1909, 1911), recurrence times for large events here are highly variable. Thus, this general area remains one of high seismic risk, and provides a focus for investigation of segmentation in the subduction processes. 2 figures.

Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

An earthquake happens when two blocks of the earth suddenly slip past one another. Earthquakes strike suddenly, violently, and without warning at any time of the day or night. If an earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause ...

Credit derivatives and risk management

OpenAIRE

Michael S. Gibson

2007-01-01

The striking growth of credit derivatives suggests that market participants find them to be useful tools for risk management. I illustrate the value of credit derivatives with three examples. A commercial bank can use credit derivatives to manage the risk of its loan portfolio. An investment bank can use credit derivatives to manage the risks it incurs when underwriting securities. An investor, such as an insurance company, asset manager, or hedge fund, can use credit derivatives to align its...

Perceived risks, emotions, and policy preferences : A longitudinal survey among the local population on gas quakes in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Perlaviciute, Goda; Steg, Linda; Hoekstra, Elisabeth J.; Vrieling, Leonie

Energy production can pose risks, such as nuclear accidents, oil spills, and earthquakes caused by gas production. Besides experts’ evaluations of risks, appropriate risk assessment and management require knowledge about how people experience these risks and which mitigation measures they prefer.

Earthquakes and trauma: review of triage and injury-specific, immediate care.

Science.gov (United States)

Gautschi, Oliver P; Cadosch, Dieter; Rajan, Gunesh; Zellweger, René

2008-01-01

Earthquakes present a major threat to mankind. Increasing knowledge about geophysical interactions, progressing architectural technology, and improved disaster management algorithms have rendered modern populations less susceptible to earthquakes. Nevertheless, the mass casualties resulting from earthquakes in Great Kanto (Japan), Ancash (Peru), Tangshan (China), Guatemala, Armenia, and Izmit (Turkey) or the recent earthquakes in Bhuj (India), Bam (Iran), Sumatra (Indonesia) and Kashmir (Pakistan) indicate the devastating effect earthquakes can have on both individual and population health. Appropriate preparation and implementation of crisis management algorithms are of utmost importance to ensure a large-scale medical-aid response is readily available following a devastating event. In particular, efficient triage is vital to optimize the use of limited medical resources and to effectively mobilize these resources so as to maximize patient salvage. However, the main priorities of disaster rescue teams are the rescue and provision of emergency care for physical trauma. Furthermore, the establishment of transport evacuation corridors, a feature often neglected, is essential in order to provide the casualties with a chance for survival. The optimal management of victims under such settings is discussed, addressing injuries of the body and psyche by means of simple diagnostic and therapeutic procedures globally applicable and available.

The Challenge of Centennial Earthquakes to Improve Modern Earthquake Engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saragoni, G. Rodolfo

2008-01-01

The recent commemoration of the centennial of the San Francisco and Valparaiso 1906 earthquakes has given the opportunity to reanalyze their damages from modern earthquake engineering perspective. These two earthquakes plus Messina Reggio Calabria 1908 had a strong impact in the birth and developing of earthquake engineering. The study of the seismic performance of some up today existing buildings, that survive centennial earthquakes, represent a challenge to better understand the limitations of our in use earthquake design methods. Only Valparaiso 1906 earthquake, of the three considered centennial earthquakes, has been repeated again as the Central Chile, 1985, Ms = 7.8 earthquake. In this paper a comparative study of the damage produced by 1906 and 1985 Valparaiso earthquakes is done in the neighborhood of Valparaiso harbor. In this study the only three centennial buildings of 3 stories that survived both earthquakes almost undamaged were identified. Since for 1985 earthquake accelerogram at El Almendral soil conditions as well as in rock were recoded, the vulnerability analysis of these building is done considering instrumental measurements of the demand. The study concludes that good performance of these buildings in the epicentral zone of large earthquakes can not be well explained by modern earthquake engineering methods. Therefore, it is recommended to use in the future of more suitable instrumental parameters, such as the destructiveness potential factor, to describe earthquake demand

12 CFR 917.3 - Risk management.

Science.gov (United States)