WorldWideScience

Sample records for earth system models

  1. The Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoeberl, Mark; Rood, Richard B.; Hildebrand, Peter; Raymond, Carol

    2003-01-01

    The Earth System Model is the natural evolution of current climate models and will be the ultimate embodiment of our geophysical understanding of the planet. These models are constructed from components - atmosphere, ocean, ice, land, chemistry, solid earth, etc. models and merged together through a coupling program which is responsible for the exchange of data from the components. Climate models and future earth system models will have standardized modules, and these standards are now being developed by the ESMF project funded by NASA. The Earth System Model will have a variety of uses beyond climate prediction. The model can be used to build climate data records making it the core of an assimilation system, and it can be used in OSSE experiments to evaluate. The computing and storage requirements for the ESM appear to be daunting. However, the Japanese ES theoretical computing capability is already within 20% of the minimum requirements needed for some 2010 climate model applications. Thus it seems very possible that a focused effort to build an Earth System Model will achieve succcss.

  2. Modeling the earth system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ojima, D. [ed.

    1992-12-31

    The 1990 Global Change Institute (GCI) on Earth System Modeling is the third of a series organized by the Office for Interdisciplinary Earth Studies to look in depth at particular issues critical to developing a better understanding of the earth system. The 1990 GCI on Earth System Modeling was organized around three themes: defining critical gaps in the knowledge of the earth system, developing simplified working models, and validating comprehensive system models. This book is divided into three sections that reflect these themes. Each section begins with a set of background papers offering a brief tutorial on the subject, followed by working group reports developed during the institute. These reports summarize the joint ideas and recommendations of the participants and bring to bear the interdisciplinary perspective that imbued the institute. Since the conclusion of the 1990 Global Change Institute, research programs, nationally and internationally, have moved forward to implement a number of the recommendations made at the institute, and many of the participants have maintained collegial interactions to develop research projects addressing the needs identified during the two weeks in Snowmass.

  3. EarthN: A new Earth System Nitrogen Model

    OpenAIRE

    Johnson, Benjamin W.; Goldblatt, Colin

    2018-01-01

    The amount of nitrogen in the atmosphere, oceans, crust, and mantle have important ramifications for Earth's biologic and geologic history. Despite this importance, the history and cycling of nitrogen in the Earth system is poorly constrained over time. For example, various models and proxies contrastingly support atmospheric mass stasis, net outgassing, or net ingassing over time. In addition, the amount available to and processing of nitrogen by organisms is intricately linked with and prov...

  4. The UK Earth System Model project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Yongming

    2016-04-01

    In this talk we will describe the development and current status of the UK Earth System Model (UKESM). This project is a NERC/Met Office collaboration and has two objectives; to develop and apply a world-leading Earth System Model, and to grow a community of UK Earth System Model scientists. We are building numerical models that include all the key components of the global climate system, and contain the important process interactions between global biogeochemistry, atmospheric chemistry and the physical climate system. UKESM will be used to make key CMIP6 simulations as well as long-time (e.g. millennium) simulations, large ensemble experiments and investigating a range of future carbon emission scenarios.

  5. EarthN: A new Earth System Nitrogen Model

    OpenAIRE

    Goldblatt, Colin; Johnson, Benjamin

    2018-01-01

    The amount of nitrogen in the atmosphere, oceans, crust, and mantle have important ramifications for Earth’s biologic and geologic history. Despite this importance, the history and cycling of nitrogen in the Earth system is poorly constrained over time. For example, various models and proxies contrastingly support atmospheric mass stasis, net outgassing, or net ingassing over time. In addition, the amount available to and processing of nitrogen by organisms is intricately linked with and prov...

  6. Development and application of earth system models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prinn, Ronald G

    2013-02-26

    The global environment is a complex and dynamic system. Earth system modeling is needed to help understand changes in interacting subsystems, elucidate the influence of human activities, and explore possible future changes. Integrated assessment of environment and human development is arguably the most difficult and most important "systems" problem faced. To illustrate this approach, we present results from the integrated global system model (IGSM), which consists of coupled submodels addressing economic development, atmospheric chemistry, climate dynamics, and ecosystem processes. An uncertainty analysis implies that without mitigation policies, the global average surface temperature may rise between 3.5 °C and 7.4 °C from 1981-2000 to 2091-2100 (90% confidence limits). Polar temperatures, absent policy, are projected to rise from about 6.4 °C to 14 °C (90% confidence limits). Similar analysis of four increasingly stringent climate mitigation policy cases involving stabilization of greenhouse gases at various levels indicates that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes. The IGSM is also used to elucidate potential unintended environmental consequences of renewable energy at large scales. There are significant reasons for attention to climate adaptation in addition to climate mitigation that earth system models can help inform. These models can also be applied to evaluate whether "climate engineering" is a viable option or a dangerous diversion. We must prepare young people to address this issue: The problem of preserving a habitable planet will engage present and future generations. Scientists must improve communication if research is to inform the public and policy makers better.

  7. Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso; Tapiador, Francisco J

    2017-09-16

    Precise modeling of CO 2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO 2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.

  8. Towards a community Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackmon, M.

    2003-04-01

    The Community Climate System Model, version 2 (CCSM2), was released in June 2002. CCSM2 has several new components and features, which I will discuss briefly. I will also show a few results from a multi-century equilibrium run with this model, emphasizing the improvements over the earlier simulation using the original CSM. A few flaws and inadequacies in CCSM2 have been identified. I will also discuss briefly work underway to improve the model and present results, if available. CCSM2, with improvements, will be the basis for the development of a Community Earth System Model (CESM). The highest priority for expansion of the model involves incorporation of biogeosciences into the coupled model system, with emphasis given to the carbon, nitrogen and iron cycles. The overall goal of the biogeosciences project within CESM is to understand the regulation of planetary energetics, planetary ecology, and planetary metabolism through exchanges of energy, momentum, and materials among atmosphere, land, and ocean, and the response of the climate system through these processes to changes in land cover and land use. In particular, this research addresses how biogeochemical coupling of carbon, nitrogen, and iron cycles affects climate and how human perturbations of these cycles alter climate. To accomplish these goals, the Community Land Model, the land component of CCSM2, is being developed to include river routing, carbon and nitrogen cycles, emissions of mineral aerosols and biogenic volatile organic compounds, dry deposition of various gases, and vegetation dynamics. The carbon and nitrogen cycles are being implemented using parameterizations developed as part of a state-of-the-art ecosystem biogeochemistry model. The primary goal of this research is to provide an accurate net flux of CO2 between the land and the atmosphere so that CESM can be used to study the dynamics of the coupled climate-carbon system. Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds are also based on a

  9. Chemical Mechanisms and Their Applications in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Earth System Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, J Eric; Pawson, Steven; Molod, Andrea; Auer, Benjamin; da Silva, Arlindo M; Douglass, Anne R; Duncan, Bryan; Liang, Qing; Manyin, Michael; Oman, Luke D; Putman, William; Strahan, Susan E; Wargan, Krzysztof

    2017-12-01

    NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Earth System Model (ESM) is a modular, general circulation model (GCM), and data assimilation system (DAS) that is used to simulate and study the coupled dynamics, physics, chemistry, and biology of our planet. GEOS is developed by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. It generates near-real-time analyzed data products, reanalyses, and weather and seasonal forecasts to support research targeted to understanding interactions among Earth System processes. For chemistry, our efforts are focused on ozone and its influence on the state of the atmosphere and oceans, and on trace gas data assimilation and global forecasting at mesoscale discretization. Several chemistry and aerosol modules are coupled to the GCM, which enables GEOS to address topics pertinent to NASA's Earth Science Mission. This paper describes the atmospheric chemistry components of GEOS and provides an overview of its Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF)-based software infrastructure, which promotes a rich spectrum of feedbacks that influence circulation and climate, and impact human and ecosystem health. We detail how GEOS allows model users to select chemical mechanisms and emission scenarios at run time, establish the extent to which the aerosol and chemical components communicate, and decide whether either or both influence the radiative transfer calculations. A variety of resolutions facilitates research on spatial and temporal scales relevant to problems ranging from hourly changes in air quality to trace gas trends in a changing climate. Samples of recent GEOS chemistry applications are provided.

  10. Advancing coupled human-earth system models: The integrated Earth System Model Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Edmonds, J. A.; Collins, W.; Thornton, P. E.; Hurtt, G. C.; Janetos, A. C.; Jones, A.; Mao, J.; Chini, L. P.; Calvin, K. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Shi, X.

    2012-12-01

    As human and biogeophysical models develop, opportunities for connections between them evolve and can be used to advance our understanding of human-earth systems interaction in the context of a changing climate. One such integration is taking place with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). A multi-disciplinary, multi-institution team has succeeded in integrating the GCAM integrated assessment model of human activity into CESM to dynamically represent the feedbacks between changing climate and human decision making, in the context of greenhouse gas mitigation policies. The first applications of this capability have focused on the feedbacks between climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystem productivity and human decisions affecting future land use change, which are in turn connected to human decisions about energy systems and bioenergy production. These experiments have been conducted in the context of the RCP4.5 scenario, one of four pathways of future radiative forcing being used in CMIP5, which constrains future human-induced greenhouse gas emissions from energy and land activities to stabilize radiative forcing at 4.5 W/m2 (~650 ppm CO2 -eq) by 2100. When this pathway is run in GCAM with the climate feedback on terrestrial productivity from CESM, there are implications for both the land use and energy system changes required for stabilization. Early findings indicate that traditional definitions of radiative forcing used in scenario development are missing a critical component of the biogeophysical consequences of land use change and their contribution to effective radiative forcing. Initial full coupling of the two global models has important implications for how climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems changes the dynamics of future land use change for agriculture and forestry, particularly in the context of a climate mitigation policy designed to reduce emissions from land use as well as energy systems

  11. Studies with the EC-Earth seamless Earth system prediction model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hazeleger, W.; Bintanja, R.

    2012-01-01

    EC-Earth is a new Earth System Model (ESM) based on the operational seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Climate and weather forecasting applications share a common ancestry and are build on the same physical principles. The emerging concept of

  12. Collaborative Project. Mode and Intermediate Waters in Earth System Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sarmiento, Jorge L. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States); Dufour, Carolina [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States); Rodgers, Keith B. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)

    2015-12-16

    The focus of this grant was on diagnosing the physical mechanisms controlling upper ocean water mass formation and carbon distribution in Earth System Models (ESMs), with the goal of improving the physics that controls their formation.

  13. Marine Aerosol Precursor Emissions for Earth System Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maltrud, Mathew Einar [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-07-25

    Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is generated by marine ecosystems and plays a major role in cloud formation over the ocean. Currently, Earth System Models use imposed flux of DMS from the ocean to the atmosphere that is independent of the climate state. We have added DMS as a prognostic variable to the Community Earth System Model (CESM) that depends on the distribution of phytoplankton species, and thus changes with climate.

  14. Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Project Strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bader, D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-09-18

    The E3SM project will assert and maintain an international scientific leadership position in the development of Earth system and climate models at the leading edge of scientific knowledge and computational capabilities. With its collaborators, it will demonstrate its leadership by using these models to achieve the goal of designing, executing, and analyzing climate and Earth system simulations that address the most critical scientific questions for the nation and DOE.

  15. 2012 Community Earth System Model (CESM) Tutorial - Proposal to DOE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holland, Marika [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Bailey, David A [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2013-03-18

    The Community Earth System Model (CESM) is a fully-coupled, global climate model that provides state-of-the-art computer simulations of the Earth's past, present, and future climate states. This document provides the agenda and list of participants for the conference. Web materials for all lectures and practical sessions available from: http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/events/tutorials/073012/ .

  16. Global Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling: An Earth Systems Modelling Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Berrien, III; Sahagian, Dork

    1997-01-01

    The Goal of the GAIM is: To advance the study of the coupled dynamics of the Earth system using as tools both data and models; to develop a strategy for the rapid development, evaluation, and application of comprehensive prognostic models of the Global Biogeochemical Subsystem which could eventually be linked with models of the Physical-Climate Subsystem; to propose, promote, and facilitate experiments with existing models or by linking subcomponent models, especially those associated with IGBP Core Projects and with WCRP efforts. Such experiments would be focused upon resolving interface issues and questions associated with developing an understanding of the prognostic behavior of key processes; to clarify key scientific issues facing the development of Global Biogeochemical Models and the coupling of these models to General Circulation Models; to assist the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process by conducting timely studies that focus upon elucidating important unresolved scientific issues associated with the changing biogeochemical cycles of the planet and upon the role of the biosphere in the physical-climate subsystem, particularly its role in the global hydrological cycle; and to advise the SC-IGBP on progress in developing comprehensive Global Biogeochemical Models and to maintain scientific liaison with the WCRP Steering Group on Global Climate Modelling.

  17. Multi-objective optimization of GENIE Earth system models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Andrew R; Myerscough, Richard J; Voutchkov, Ivan I; Marsh, Robert; Cox, Simon J

    2009-07-13

    The tuning of parameters in climate models is essential to provide reliable long-term forecasts of Earth system behaviour. We apply a multi-objective optimization algorithm to the problem of parameter estimation in climate models. This optimization process involves the iterative evaluation of response surface models (RSMs), followed by the execution of multiple Earth system simulations. These computations require an infrastructure that provides high-performance computing for building and searching the RSMs and high-throughput computing for the concurrent evaluation of a large number of models. Grid computing technology is therefore essential to make this algorithm practical for members of the GENIE project.

  18. Mathematical modeling of earth's dynamical systems a primer

    CERN Document Server

    Slingerland, Rudy

    2011-01-01

    Mathematical Modeling of Earth's Dynamical Systems gives earth scientists the essential skills for translating chemical and physical systems into mathematical and computational models that provide enhanced insight into Earth's processes. Using a step-by-step method, the book identifies the important geological variables of physical-chemical geoscience problems and describes the mechanisms that control these variables. This book is directed toward upper-level undergraduate students, graduate students, researchers, and professionals who want to learn how to abstract complex systems into sets of dynamic equations. It shows students how to recognize domains of interest and key factors, and how to explain assumptions in formal terms. The book reveals what data best tests ideas of how nature works, and cautions against inadequate transport laws, unconstrained coefficients, and unfalsifiable models. Various examples of processes and systems, and ample illustrations, are provided. Students using this text should be f...

  19. Technical Note: The Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy - a new approach towards Earth System Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Jöckel

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The development of a comprehensive Earth System Model (ESM to study the interactions between chemical, physical, and biological processes, requires coupling of the different domains (land, ocean, atmosphere, .... One strategy is to link existing domain-specific models with a universal coupler, i.e. an independent standalone program organizing the communication between other programs. In many cases, however, a much simpler approach is more feasible. We have developed the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy. It comprises (1 a modular interface structure to connect to a , (2 an extendable set of such for miscellaneous processes, and (3 a coding standard. MESSy is therefore not a coupler in the classical sense, but exchanges data between a and several within one comprehensive executable. The internal complexity of the is controllable in a transparent and user friendly way. This provides remarkable new possibilities to study feedback mechanisms (by two-way coupling. Note that the MESSy and the coupler approach can be combined. For instance, an atmospheric model implemented according to the MESSy standard could easily be coupled to an ocean model by means of an external coupler. The vision is to ultimately form a comprehensive ESM which includes a large set of submodels, and a base model which contains only a central clock and runtime control. This can be reached stepwise, since each process can be included independently. Starting from an existing model, process submodels can be reimplemented according to the MESSy standard. This procedure guarantees the availability of a state-of-the-art model for scientific applications at any time of the development. In principle, MESSy can be implemented into any kind of model, either global or regional. So far, the MESSy concept has been applied to the general circulation model ECHAM5 and a number of process boxmodels.

  20. Next generation framework for aquatic modeling of the Earth System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fekete, B. M.; Wollheim, W. M.; Wisser, D.; Vörösmarty, C. J.

    2009-03-01

    Earth System model development is becoming an increasingly complex task. As scientists attempt to represent the physical and bio-geochemical processes and various feedback mechanisms in unprecedented detail, the models themselves are becoming increasingly complex. At the same time, the complexity of the surrounding IT infrastructure is growing as well. Earth System models must manage a vast amount of data in heterogeneous computing environments. Numerous development efforts are on the way to ease that burden and offer model development platforms that reduce IT challenges and allow scientists to focus on their science. While these new modeling frameworks (e.g. FMS, ESMF, CCA, OpenMI) do provide solutions to many IT challenges (performing input/output, managing space and time, establishing model coupling, etc.), they are still considerably complex and often have steep learning curves. The Next generation Framework for Aquatic Modeling of the Earth System (NextFrAMES, a revised version of FrAMES) have numerous similarities to those developed by other teams, but represents a novel model development paradigm. NextFrAMES is built around a modeling XML that lets modelers to express the overall model structure and provides an API for dynamically linked plugins to represent the processes. The model XML is executed by the NextFrAMES run-time engine that parses the model definition, loads the module plugins, performs the model I/O and executes the model calculations. NextFrAMES has a minimalistic view representing spatial domains and treats every domain (regardless of its layout such as grid, network tree, individual points, polygons, etc.) as vector of objects. NextFrAMES performs computations on multiple domains and interactions between different spatial domains are carried out through couplers. NextFrAMES allows processes to operate at different frequencies by providing rudimentary aggregation and disaggregation facilities. NextFrAMES was designed primarily for

  1. Challenges in Modeling the Sun-Earth System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spann, James

    2004-01-01

    The transfer of mass, energy and momentum through the coupled Sun-Earth system spans a wide range of scales in time and space. While profound advances have been made in modeling isolated regions of the Sun-Earth system, minimal progress has been achieved in modeling the end-to-end system. Currently, end-to-end modeling of the Sun-Earth system is a major goal of the National Space Weather and NASA Living With a Star (LWS) programs. The uncertainty in the underlying physics responsible for coupling contiguous regions of the Sun-Earth system is recognized as a significant barrier to progress. Our limited understanding of the underlying coupling physics is illustrated by the following example questions: how does the propagation of a typical CME/solar flare influence the measured properties of the solar wind at 1 AU? How does the solar wind compel the dynamic response of the Earth's magnetosphere? How is variability in the ionosphere-thermosphere system coupled to magnetospheric variations? Why do these and related important questions remain unanswered? What are the primary problems that need to be resolved to enable significant progress in comprehensive modeling of the Sun-Earth system? Which model/technique improvements are required and what new data coverage is required to enable full model advances? This poster opens the discussion for how these and other important questions can be addressed. A workshop scheduled for October 8-22, 2004 in Huntsville, Alabama, will be a forum for identifying ana exploring promising new directions and approaches for characterizing and understanding the system. To focus the discussion, the workshop will emphasize the genesis, evolution, propagation and interaction of high-speed solar wind streamers or CME/flares with geospace and the subsequent response of geospace from its outer reaches in the magnetosphere to the lower edge of the ionosphere-mesosphere-thermosphere. Particular emphasis will be placed on modeling the coupling aspects

  2. EarthCube - Earth System Bridge: Spanning Scientific Communities with Interoperable Modeling Frameworks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peckham, S. D.; DeLuca, C.; Gochis, D. J.; Arrigo, J.; Kelbert, A.; Choi, E.; Dunlap, R.

    2014-12-01

    In order to better understand and predict environmental hazards of weather/climate, ecology and deep earth processes, geoscientists develop and use physics-based computational models. These models are used widely both in academic and federal communities. Because of the large effort required to develop and test models, there is widespread interest in component-based modeling, which promotes model reuse and simplified coupling to tackle problems that often cross discipline boundaries. In component-based modeling, the goal is to make relatively small changes to models that make it easy to reuse them as "plug-and-play" components. Sophisticated modeling frameworks exist to rapidly couple these components to create new composite models. They allow component models to exchange variables while accommodating different programming languages, computational grids, time-stepping schemes, variable names and units. Modeling frameworks have arisen in many modeling communities. CSDMS (Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System) serves the academic earth surface process dynamics community, while ESMF (Earth System Modeling Framework) serves many federal Earth system modeling projects. Others exist in both the academic and federal domains and each satisfies design criteria that are determined by the community they serve. While they may use different interface standards or semantic mediation strategies, they share fundamental similarities. The purpose of the Earth System Bridge project is to develop mechanisms for interoperability between modeling frameworks, such as the ability to share a model or service component. This project has three main goals: (1) Develop a Framework Description Language (ES-FDL) that allows modeling frameworks to be described in a standard way so that their differences and similarities can be assessed. (2) Demonstrate that if a model is augmented with a framework-agnostic Basic Model Interface (BMI), then simple, universal adapters can go from BMI to a

  3. Representing Reservoir Stratification in Land Surface and Earth System Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yigzaw, W.; Li, H. Y.; Leung, L. R.; Hejazi, M. I.; Voisin, N.; Payn, R. A.; Demissie, Y.

    2017-12-01

    A one-dimensional reservoir stratification modeling has been developed as part of Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport (MOSART), which is the river transport model used in the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) and Community Earth System Model (CESM). Reservoirs play an important role in modulating the dynamic water, energy and biogeochemical cycles in the riverine system through nutrient sequestration and stratification. However, most earth system models include lake models that assume a simplified geometry featuring a constant depth and a constant surface area. As reservoir geometry has important effects on thermal stratification, we developed a new algorithm for deriving generic, stratified area-elevation-storage relationships that are applicable at regional and global scales using data from Global Reservoir and Dam database (GRanD). This new reservoir geometry dataset is then used to support the development of a reservoir stratification module within MOSART. The mixing of layers (energy and mass) in the reservoir is driven by eddy diffusion, vertical advection, and reservoir inflow and outflow. Upstream inflow into a reservoir is treated as an additional source/sink of energy, while downstream outflow represented a sink. Hourly atmospheric forcing from North American Land Assimilation System (NLDAS) Phase II and simulated daily runoff by ACME land component are used as inputs for the model over the contiguous United States for simulations between 2001-2010. The model is validated using selected observed temperature profile data in a number of reservoirs that are subject to various levels of regulation. The reservoir stratification module completes the representation of riverine mass and heat transfer in earth system models, which is a major step towards quantitative understanding of human influences on the terrestrial hydrological, ecological and biogeochemical cycles.

  4. Mode and Intermediate Waters in Earth System Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gnanadesikan, Anand [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States); Sarmiento, Jorge L. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)

    2015-12-22

    This report describes work done as part of a joint Princeton-Johns Hopkins project to look at the impact of mode and intermediate waters in Earth System Models. The Johns Hopkins portion of this work focussed on the role of lateral mixing in ventilating such waters, with important implications for hypoxia, the uptake of anthropogenic carbon, the dynamics of El Nino and carbon pumps. The Johns Hopkins group also collaborated with the Princeton Group to help develop a watermass diagnostics framework.

  5. Using the Model Coupling Toolkit to couple earth system models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, J.C.; Perlin, N.; Skyllingstad, E.D.

    2008-01-01

    Continued advances in computational resources are providing the opportunity to operate more sophisticated numerical models. Additionally, there is an increasing demand for multidisciplinary studies that include interactions between different physical processes. Therefore there is a strong desire to develop coupled modeling systems that utilize existing models and allow efficient data exchange and model control. The basic system would entail model "1" running on "M" processors and model "2" running on "N" processors, with efficient exchange of model fields at predetermined synchronization intervals. Here we demonstrate two coupled systems: the coupling of the ocean circulation model Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to the surface wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN), and the coupling of ROMS to the atmospheric model Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Prediction System (COAMPS). Both coupled systems use the Model Coupling Toolkit (MCT) as a mechanism for operation control and inter-model distributed memory transfer of model variables. In this paper we describe requirements and other options for model coupling, explain the MCT library, ROMS, SWAN and COAMPS models, methods for grid decomposition and sparse matrix interpolation, and provide an example from each coupled system. Methods presented in this paper are clearly applicable for coupling of other types of models. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Global Earth Observation System of Systems: Characterizing Uncertainties of Space- based Measurements and Earth System Models Informing Decision Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birk, R. J.; Frederick, M.

    2006-05-01

    The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) framework identifies the benefits of systematically and scientifically networking the capacity of organizations and systems into solutions that benefit nine societal benefit areas. The U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System (IEOS), the U.S. contribution to the GEOSS, focuses on near-term, mid-term, and long-term opportunities to establish integrated system solutions based on capacities and capabilities of member agencies and affiliations. Scientists at NASA, NOAA, DOE, NSF and other U.S. agencies are evolving the predictive capacity of models of Earth processes based on space-based, airborne and surface-based instruments and their measurements. NASA research activities include advancing the power and accessibility of computational resources (i.e. Project Columbia) to enable robust science data analysis, modeling, and assimilation techniques to rapidly advance. The integration of the resulting observations and predictions into decision support tools require characterization of the accuracies of a range of input measurements includes temperature and humidity profiles, wind speed, ocean height, sea surface temperature, and atmospheric constituents that are measured globally by U.S. deployed spacecraft. These measurements are stored in many data formats on many different information systems with widely varying accessibility and have processes whose documentation ranges from extremely detailed to very minimal. Integrated and interdisciplinary modeling (enabled by the Earth System Model Framework) enable the types of ensemble analysis that are useful for decision processes associated with energy management, public health risk assessments, and optimizing transportation safety and efficiency. Interdisciplinary approaches challenge systems integrators (both scientists and engineers) to expand beyond the traditional boundaries of particular disciplines to develop, verify and validate, and ultimately benchmark the

  7. Quantifying the role of fire in the Earth system – Part 1: Improved global fire modeling in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1)

    OpenAIRE

    F. Li; S. Levis; D. S. Ward

    2013-01-01

    Modeling fire as an integral part of an Earth system model (ESM) is vital for quantifying and understanding fire–climate–vegetation interactions on a global scale and from an Earth system perspective. In this study, we introduce to the Community Earth System Model (CESM) the new global fire parameterization proposed by Li et al. (2012a, b), now with a more realistic representation of the anthropogenic impacts on fires, with a parameterization of peat fires, and with other minor modifications....

  8. Facilitating the Easy Use of Earth Observation Data in Earth System Models through CyberConnector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di, L.; Sun, Z.; Zhang, C.

    2017-12-01

    Earth system models (ESM) are an important tool used to understand the Earth system and predict its future states. On other hand, Earth observations (EO) provides the current state of the system. EO data are very useful in ESM initialization, verification, validation, and inter-comparison. However, EO data often cannot directly be consumed by ESMs because of the syntactic and semantic mismatches between EO products and ESM requirements. In order to remove the mismatches, scientists normally spend long time to customize EO data for ESM consumption. CyberConnector, a NSF EarthCube building block, is intended to automate the data customization so that scientists can be relieved from the laborious EO data customization. CyberConnector uses web-service-based geospatial processing models (GPM) as the mechanism to automatically customize the EO data into the right products in the right form needed by ESMs. It can support many different ESMs through its standard interfaces. It consists of seven modules: GPM designer, GPM binder, GPM runner, GPM monitor, resource register, order manager, and result display. In CyberConnector, EO data instances and GPMs are independent and loosely coupled. A modeler only needs to create a GPM in the GMP designer for EO data customization. Once the modeler specifies a study area, the designed GPM will be activated and take the temporal and spatial extents as constraints to search the data sources and customize the available EO data into the ESM-acceptable form. The execution of GMP is completely automatic. Currently CyberConnector has been fully developed. In order to validate the feasibility, flexibility, and ESM independence of CyberConnector, three ESMs from different geoscience disciplines, including the Cloud-Resolving Model (CRM), the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM), and the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ), have been experimented with CyberConnector through closely collaborating with modelers. In the experiment

  9. Fostering Team Awareness in Earth System Modeling Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Easterbrook, S. M.; Lawson, A.; Strong, S.

    2009-12-01

    Existing Global Climate Models are typically managed and controlled at a single site, with varied levels of participation by scientists outside the core lab. As these models evolve to encompass a wider set of earth systems, this central control of the modeling effort becomes a bottleneck. But such models cannot evolve to become fully distributed open source projects unless they address the imbalance in the availability of communication channels: scientists at the core site have access to regular face-to-face communication with one another, while those at remote sites have access to only a subset of these conversations - e.g. formally scheduled teleconferences and user meetings. Because of this imbalance, critical decision making can be hidden from many participants, their code contributions can interact in unanticipated ways, and the community loses awareness of who knows what. We have documented some of these problems in a field study at one climate modeling centre, and started to develop tools to overcome these problems. We report on one such tool, TracSNAP, which analyzes the social network of the scientists contributing code to the model by extracting the data in an existing project code repository. The tool presents the results of this analysis to modelers and model users in a number of ways: recommendation for who has expertise on particular code modules, suggestions for code sections that are related to files being worked on, and visualizations of team communication patterns. The tool is currently available as a plugin for the Trac bug tracking system.

  10. Nutrient cycle benchmarks for earth system land model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Q.; Riley, W. J.; Tang, J.; Zhao, L.

    2017-12-01

    Projecting future biosphere-climate feedbacks using Earth system models (ESMs) relies heavily on robust modeling of land surface carbon dynamics. More importantly, soil nutrient (particularly, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P)) dynamics strongly modulate carbon dynamics, such as plant sequestration of atmospheric CO2. Prevailing ESM land models all consider nitrogen as a potentially limiting nutrient, and several consider phosphorus. However, including nutrient cycle processes in ESM land models potentially introduces large uncertainties that could be identified and addressed by improved observational constraints. We describe the development of two nutrient cycle benchmarks for ESM land models: (1) nutrient partitioning between plants and soil microbes inferred from 15N and 33P tracers studies and (2) nutrient limitation effects on carbon cycle informed by long-term fertilization experiments. We used these benchmarks to evaluate critical hypotheses regarding nutrient cycling and their representation in ESMs. We found that a mechanistic representation of plant-microbe nutrient competition based on relevant functional traits best reproduced observed plant-microbe nutrient partitioning. We also found that for multiple-nutrient models (i.e., N and P), application of Liebig's law of the minimum is often inaccurate. Rather, the Multiple Nutrient Limitation (MNL) concept better reproduces observed carbon-nutrient interactions.

  11. Scientific Visualization & Modeling for Earth Systems Science Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhury, S. Raj; Rodriguez, Waldo J.

    2003-01-01

    Providing research experiences for undergraduate students in Earth Systems Science (ESS) poses several challenges at smaller academic institutions that might lack dedicated resources for this area of study. This paper describes the development of an innovative model that involves students with majors in diverse scientific disciplines in authentic ESS research. In studying global climate change, experts typically use scientific visualization techniques applied to remote sensing data collected by satellites. In particular, many problems related to environmental phenomena can be quantitatively addressed by investigations based on datasets related to the scientific endeavours such as the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE). Working with data products stored at NASA's Distributed Active Archive Centers, visualization software specifically designed for students and an advanced, immersive Virtual Reality (VR) environment, students engage in guided research projects during a structured 6-week summer program. Over the 5-year span, this program has afforded the opportunity for students majoring in biology, chemistry, mathematics, computer science, physics, engineering and science education to work collaboratively in teams on research projects that emphasize the use of scientific visualization in studying the environment. Recently, a hands-on component has been added through science student partnerships with school-teachers in data collection and reporting for the GLOBE Program (GLobal Observations to Benefit the Environment).

  12. Terrestrial nitrogen cycling in Earth system models revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stocker, Benjamin D; Prentice, I. Colin; Cornell, Sarah; Davies-Barnard, T; Finzi, Adrien; Franklin, Oskar; Janssens, Ivan; Larmola, Tuula; Manzoni, Stefano; Näsholm, Torgny; Raven, John; Rebel, Karin; Reed, Sasha C.; Vicca, Sara; Wiltshire, Andy; Zaehle, Sönke

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the degree to which nitrogen (N) availability limits land carbon (C) uptake under global environmental change represents an unresolved challenge. First-generation ‘C-only’vegetation models, lacking explicit representations of N cycling,projected a substantial and increasing land C sink under rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This prediction was questioned for not taking into account the potentially limiting effect of N availability, which is necessary for plant growth (Hungate et al.,2003). More recent global models include coupled C and N cycles in land ecosystems (C–N models) and are widely assumed to be more realistic. However, inclusion of more processes has not consistently improved their performance in capturing observed responses of the global C cycle (e.g. Wenzel et al., 2014). With the advent of a new generation of global models, including coupled C, N, and phosphorus (P) cycling, model complexity is sure to increase; but model reliability may not, unless greater attention is paid to the correspondence of model process representations ande mpirical evidence. It was in this context that the ‘Nitrogen Cycle Workshop’ at Dartington Hall, Devon, UK was held on 1–5 February 2016. Organized by I. Colin Prentice and Benjamin D. Stocker (Imperial College London, UK), the workshop was funded by the European Research Council,project ‘Earth system Model Bias Reduction and assessing Abrupt Climate change’ (EMBRACE). We gathered empirical ecologists and ecosystem modellers to identify key uncertainties in terrestrial C–N cycling, and to discuss processes that are missing or poorly represented in current models.

  13. Fire in the Earth System: Bridging data and modeling research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hantson, Srijn; Kloster, Silvia; Coughlan, Michael; Daniau, Anne-Laure; Vanniere, Boris; Bruecher, Tim; Kehrwald, Natalie; Magi, Brian I.

    2016-01-01

    Significant changes in wildfire occurrence, extent, and severity in areas such as western North America and Indonesia in 2015 have made the issue of fire increasingly salient in both the public and scientific spheres. Biomass combustion rapidly transforms land cover, smoke pours into the atmosphere, radiative heat from fires initiates dramatic pyrocumulus clouds, and the repeated ecological and atmospheric effects of fire can even impact regional and global climate. Furthermore, fires have a significant impact on human health, livelihoods, and social and economic systems.Modeling and databased methods to understand fire have rapidly coevolved over the past decade. Satellite and ground-based data about present-day fire are widely available for applications in research and fire management. Fire modeling has developed in part because of the evolution in vegetation and Earth system modeling efforts, but parameterizations and validation are largely focused on the present day because of the availability of satellite data. Charcoal deposits in sediment cores have emerged as a powerful method to evaluate trends in biomass burning extending back to the Last Glacial Maximum and beyond, and these records provide a context for present-day fire. The Global Charcoal Database version 3 compiled about 700 charcoal records and more than 1,000 records are expected for the future version 4. Together, these advances offer a pathway to explore how the strengths of fire data and fire modeling could address the weaknesses in the overall understanding of human-climate–fire linkages.A community of researchers studying fire in the Earth system with individual expertise that included paleoecology, paleoclimatology, modern ecology, archaeology, climate, and Earth system modeling, statistics, geography, biogeochemistry, and atmospheric science met at an intensive workshop in Massachusetts to explore new research directions and initiate new collaborations. Research themes, which emerged from

  14. Understanding and quantifying foliar temperature acclimation for Earth System Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, N. G.; Dukes, J.

    2015-12-01

    Photosynthesis and respiration on land are the two largest carbon fluxes between the atmosphere and Earth's surface. The parameterization of these processes represent major uncertainties in the terrestrial component of the Earth System Models used to project future climate change. Research has shown that much of this uncertainty is due to the parameterization of the temperature responses of leaf photosynthesis and autotrophic respiration, which are typically based on short-term empirical responses. Here, we show that including longer-term responses to temperature, such as temperature acclimation, can help to reduce this uncertainty and improve model performance, leading to drastic changes in future land-atmosphere carbon feedbacks across multiple models. However, these acclimation formulations have many flaws, including an underrepresentation of many important global flora. In addition, these parameterizations were done using multiple studies that employed differing methodology. As such, we used a consistent methodology to quantify the short- and long-term temperature responses of maximum Rubisco carboxylation (Vcmax), maximum rate of Ribulos-1,5-bisphosphate regeneration (Jmax), and dark respiration (Rd) in multiple species representing each of the plant functional types used in global-scale land surface models. Short-term temperature responses of each process were measured in individuals acclimated for 7 days at one of 5 temperatures (15-35°C). The comparison of short-term curves in plants acclimated to different temperatures were used to evaluate long-term responses. Our analyses indicated that the instantaneous response of each parameter was highly sensitive to the temperature at which they were acclimated. However, we found that this sensitivity was larger in species whose leaves typically experience a greater range of temperatures over the course of their lifespan. These data indicate that models using previous acclimation formulations are likely incorrectly

  15. Modeling Sustainability: Population, Inequality, Consumption, and Bidirectional Coupling of the Earth and Human Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motesharrei, Safa; Rivas, Jorge; Kalnay, Eugenia; Asrar, Ghassem R.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.; Cahalan, Robert F.; Cane, Mark A.; Colwell, Rita R.; Feng, Kuishuang; Franklin, Rachel S.; hide

    2016-01-01

    Over the last two centuries, the impact of the Human System has grown dramatically, becoming strongly dominant within the Earth System in many different ways. Consumption, inequality, and population have increased extremely fast, especially since about 1950, threatening to overwhelm the many critical functions and ecosystems of the Earth System. Changes in the Earth System, in turn, have important feedback effects on the Human System, with costly and potentially serious consequences. However, current models do not incorporate these critical feedbacks. We argue that in order to understand the dynamics of either system, Earth System Models must be coupled with Human System Models through bidirectional couplings representing the positive, negative, and delayed feedbacks that exist in the real systems. In particular, key Human System variables, such as demographics, inequality, economic growth, and migration, are not coupled with the Earth System but are instead driven by exogenous estimates, such as UN population projections. This makes current models likely to miss important feedbacks in the real Earth-Human system, especially those that may result in unexpected or counterintuitive outcomes, and thus requiring different policy interventions from current models. The importance and imminence of sustainability challenges, the dominant role of the Human System in the Earth System, and the essential roles the Earth System plays for the Human System, all call for collaboration of natural scientists, social scientists, and engineers in multidisciplinary research and modeling to develop coupled Earth-Human system models for devising effective science-based policies and measures to benefit current and future generations.

  16. Connecting Earth Systems: Developing Holistic Understanding through the Earth-System-Science Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gagnon, Valoree; Bradway, Heather

    2012-01-01

    For many years, Earth science concepts have been taught as thematic units with lessons in nice, neat chapter packages complete with labs and notes. But compartmentalized Earth science no longer exists, and implementing teaching methods that support student development of holistic understandings can be a time-consuming and difficult task. While…

  17. Developing an Earth system Inverse model for the Earth's energy and water budgets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haines, K.; Thomas, C.; Liu, C.; Allan, R. P.; Carneiro, D. M.

    2017-12-01

    The CONCEPT-Heat project aims at developing a consistent energy budget for the Earth system in order to better understand and quantify global change. We advocate a variational "Earth system inverse" solution as the best methodology to bring the necessary expertise from different disciplines together. L'Ecuyer et al (2015) and Rodell et al (2015) first used a variational approach to adjust multiple satellite data products for air-sea-land vertical fluxes of heat and freshwater, achieving closed budgets on a regional and global scale. However their treatment of horizontal energy and water redistribution and its uncertainties was limited. Following the recent work of Liu et al (2015, 2017) which used atmospheric reanalysis convergences to derive a new total surface heat flux product from top of atmosphere fluxes, we have revisited the variational budget approach introducing a more extensive analysis of the role of horizontal transports of heat and freshwater, using multiple atmospheric and ocean reanalysis products. We find considerable improvements in fluxes in regions such as the North Atlantic and Arctic, for example requiring higher atmospheric heat and water convergences over the Arctic than given by ERA-Interim, thereby allowing lower and more realistic oceanic transports. We explore using the variational uncertainty analysis to produce lower resolution corrections to higher resolution flux products and test these against in situ flux data. We also explore the covariance errors implied between component fluxes that are imposed by the regional budget constraints. Finally we propose this as a valuable methodology for developing consistent observational constraints on the energy and water budgets in climate models. We take a first look at the same regional budget quantities in CMIP5 models and consider the implications of the differences for the processes and biases active in the models. Many further avenues of investigation are possible focused on better valuing

  18. Workshop on Human Activity at Scale in Earth System Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allen, Melissa R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Aziz, H. M. Abdul [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Coletti, Mark A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Kennedy, Joseph H. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Nair, Sujithkumar S. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Omitaomu, Olufemi A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-01-26

    Changing human activity within a geographical location may have significant influence on the global climate, but that activity must be parameterized in such a way as to allow these high-resolution sub-grid processes to affect global climate within that modeling framework. Additionally, we must have tools that provide decision support and inform local and regional policies regarding mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. The development of next-generation earth system models, that can produce actionable results with minimum uncertainties, depends on understanding global climate change and human activity interactions at policy implementation scales. Unfortunately, at best we currently have only limited schemes for relating high-resolution sectoral emissions to real-time weather, ultimately to become part of larger regions and well-mixed atmosphere. Moreover, even our understanding of meteorological processes at these scales is imperfect. This workshop addresses these shortcomings by providing a forum for discussion of what we know about these processes, what we can model, where we have gaps in these areas and how we can rise to the challenge to fill these gaps.

  19. Community Earth System Model (CESM) Tutorial 2016 Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lamarque, Jean-Francois [Univ. Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory (CGD), Boulder, CO (United States)

    2017-05-09

    For the 2016 tutorial, NCAR/CGD requested a total budget of $70,000 split equally between DOE and NSF. The funds were used to support student participation (travel, lodging, per diem, etc.). Lectures and practical session support was primarily provided by local participants at no additional cost (see list below). The seventh annual Community Earth System Model (CESM) tutorial (2016) for students and early career scientists was held 8 – 12 August 2016. As has been the case over the last few years, this event was extremely successful and there was greater demand than could be met. There was continued interest in support of the NSF’s EaSM Infrastructure awards, to train these awardees in the application of the CESM. Based on suggestions from previous tutorial participants, the 2016 tutorial experience again provided direct connection to Yellowstone for each individual participant (rather than pairs), and used the NCAR Mesa Library. The 2016 tutorial included lectures on simulating the climate system and practical sessions on running CESM, modifying components, and analyzing data. These were targeted to the graduate student level. In addition, specific talks (“Application” talks) were introduced this year to provide participants with some in-depth knowledge of some specific aspects of CESM.

  20. Teleconnections in complex human-Earth system models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvin, K. V.; Edmonds, J.

    2017-12-01

    Human systems and physical Earth systems are closely coupled and interact in complex ways that are sometimes surprising. This presentation discusses a few examples of system interactions. We consider the coupled energy-water-land-economy systems. We show how reductions in fossil fuel emissions are inversely coupled to land rents, food prices and deforestation. We discuss how water shortages in one part of the world is propagated to other distant parts of the world. We discuss the sensitivity of international trade patterns to energy and land systems technology and markets, and the potentially unanticipated results that can emerge.

  1. Modeling Sustainability: Population, Inequality, Consumption, and Bidirectional Coupling of the Earth and Human Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Motesharrei, Safa; Rivas, Jorge; Kalnay, Eugenia; Asrar, Ghassem R.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.; Cahalan, Robert F.; Cane, Mark A.; Colwell, Rita R.; Feng, Kuishuang; Franklin, Rachel S.; Hubacek, Klaus; Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando; Miyoshi, Takemasa; Ruth, Matthias; Sagdeev, Roald; Shirmohammadi, Adel; Shukla, Jagadish; Srebric, Jelena; Yakovenko, Victor M.; Zeng, Ning

    2016-12-11

    Over the last two centuries, the impact of the Human System has grown dramatically, becoming strongly dominant within the Earth System in many different ways. Consumption, inequality, and population have increased extremely fast, especially since about 1950, threatening to overwhelm the many critical functions and ecosystems of the Earth System. Changes in the Earth System, in turn, have important feedback effects on the Human System, with costly and potentially serious consequences. However, current models do not incorporate these critical feedbacks. We argue that in order to understand the dynamics of either system, Earth System Models must be coupled with Human System Models through bidirectional couplings representing the positive, negative, and delayed feedbacks that exist in the real systems. In particular, key Human System variables, such as demographics, inequality, economic growth, and migration, are not coupled with the Earth System but are instead driven by exogenous estimates, such as United Nations population projections. This makes current models likely to miss important feedbacks in the real Earth–Human system, especially those that may result in unexpected or counterintuitive outcomes, and thus requiring different policy interventions from current models. The importance and imminence of sustainability challenges, the dominant role of the Human System in the Earth System, and the essential roles the Earth System plays for the Human System, all call for collaboration of natural scientists, social scientists, and engineers in multidisciplinary research and modeling to develop coupled Earth–Human system models for devising effective science-based policies and measures to benefit current and future generations.

  2. Chemistry and Climate in Asia - An Earth System Modeling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barth, M. C.; Emmons, L. K.; Massie, S. T.; Pfister, G.; Romero Lankao, P.; Lamarque, J.; Carmichael, G. R.

    2011-12-01

    Asia is one of the most highly populated and economically dynamic regions in the world, with much of the population located in growing mega-cities. It is a region with significant emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and other pollutants, which pose high health risks to urban populations. Emissions of these aerosols and gases increased drastically over the last decade due to economic growth and urbanization and are expected to rise further in the near future. As such, the continent plays a role in influencing climate change via its effluent of aerosols and gaseous pollutants. Asia is also susceptible to adverse climate change through interactions between aerosols and clouds, which potentially can have serious implications for freshwater resources. We are developing an integrated inter-disciplinary program to focus on Asia, its climate, air quality, and impact on humans that will include connections with hydrology, ecosystems, extreme weather events, and human health. The primary goal of this project is to create a team to identify key scientific questions and establish networks of specialists to create a plan for future studies to address these questions. A second goal is to establish research facilities and a framework for investigating chemistry and climate over Asia. These facilities include producing high resolution Earth System Model simulations that have been evaluated with meteorological and chemical measurements, producing high-resolution emission inventories, analyzing satellite data, and analyzing the vulnerability of humans to air quality and extreme natural events. In this presentation we will describe in more detail these activities and discuss a future workshop on the impact of chemistry in climate on air quality and human health.

  3. Parallel Optimization of an Earth System Model (100 Gigaflops and Beyond?)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drummond, L. A.; Farrara, J. D.; Mechoso, C. R.; Spahr, J. A.; Chao, Y.; Katz, S.; Lou, J. Z.; Wang, P.

    1997-01-01

    We are developing an Earth System Model (ESM) to be used in research aimed to better understand the interactions between the components of the Earth System and to eventually predict their variations. Currently, our ESM includes models of the atmosphere, oceans and the important chemical tracers therein.

  4. Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eby, M.; Weaver, A. J.; Alexander, K.

    2013-01-01

    Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE...... and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20...

  5. One model to fit all? The pursuit of integrated earth system models in GAIM and AIMES

    OpenAIRE

    Uhrqvist, Ola

    2015-01-01

    Images of Earth from space popularized the view of our planet as a single, fragile entity against the vastness and darkness of space. In the 1980s, the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) was set up to produce a predictive understanding of this fragile entity as the ‘Earth System.’ In order to do so, the program sought to create a common research framework for the different disciplines involved. It suggested that integrated numerical models could provide such a framework. The pap...

  6. Development of hybrid 3-D hydrological modeling for the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zeng, Xubin [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Troch, Peter [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Pelletier, Jon [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Niu, Guo-Yue [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Gochis, David [NCAR Research Applications Lab., Boulder, CO (United States)

    2015-11-15

    This is the Final Report of our four-year (3-year plus one-year no cost extension) collaborative project between the University of Arizona (UA) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The overall objective of our project is to develop and evaluate the first hybrid 3-D hydrological model with a horizontal grid spacing of 1 km for the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM).

  7. The Earth System Prediction Suite: Toward a Coordinated U.S. Modeling Capability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theurich, Gerhard; DeLuca, C.; Campbell, T.; Liu, F.; Saint, K.; Vertenstein, M.; Chen, J.; Oehmke, R.; Doyle, J.; Whitcomb, T.; hide

    2016-01-01

    The Earth System Prediction Suite (ESPS) is a collection of flagship U.S. weather and climate models and model components that are being instrumented to conform to interoperability conventions, documented to follow metadata standards, and made available either under open source terms or to credentialed users.The ESPS represents a culmination of efforts to create a common Earth system model architecture, and the advent of increasingly coordinated model development activities in the U.S. ESPS component interfaces are based on the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF), community-developed software for building and coupling models, and the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) Layer, a set of ESMF-based component templates and interoperability conventions. This shared infrastructure simplifies the process of model coupling by guaranteeing that components conform to a set of technical and semantic behaviors. The ESPS encourages distributed, multi-agency development of coupled modeling systems, controlled experimentation and testing, and exploration of novel model configurations, such as those motivated by research involving managed and interactive ensembles. ESPS codes include the Navy Global Environmental Model (NavGEM), HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), and Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS); the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) and the Modular Ocean Model (MOM); the Community Earth System Model (CESM); and the NASA ModelE climate model and GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model.

  8. BIG DATA-Related Challenges and Opportunities in Earth System Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bamzai, A. S.

    2012-12-01

    Knowledge of the Earth's climate has increased immensely in recent decades, both through observational analysis and modeling. BIG DATA-related challenges emerge in our quest for understanding the variability and predictability of the climate and earth system on a range of time scales, as well as in our endeavor to improve predictive capability using state-of-the-science models. To enable further scientific discovery, bottlenecks in current paradigms need to be addressed. An overview of current NSF activities in Earth System Modeling with a focus on associated data-related challenges and opportunities, will be presented.

  9. Presentation, calibration and validation of the low-order, DCESS Earth System Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shaffer, G.; Olsen, S. Malskaer; Pedersen, Jens Olaf Pepke

    2008-01-01

    A new, low-order Earth system model is described, calibrated and tested against Earth system data. The model features modules for the atmosphere, ocean, ocean sediment, land biosphere and lithosphere and has been designed to simulate global change on time scales of years to millions of years...... remineralization. The lithosphere module considers outgassing, weathering of carbonate and silicate rocks and weathering of rocks containing old organic carbon and phosphorus. Weathering rates are related to mean atmospheric temperatures. A pre-industrial, steady state calibration to Earth system data is carried...

  10. Four-dimensional model assimilation of data: a strategy for the earth system sciences

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Panel on Model-Assimilated Data Sets for Atmospheric and Oceanic Research, National Research Council

    1991-01-01

    ... of model assimilation technology and new applications, and identifies the pressing national need in the 1990s - to manage and utilize effectively the overwhelming volume of earth system data already...

  11. Models meet data: Challenges and opportunities in implementing land management in Earth system models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pongratz, Julia; Dolman, Han; Don, Axel; Erb, Karl-Heinz; Fuchs, Richard; Herold, Martin; Jones, Chris; Kuemmerle, Tobias; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Meyfroidt, Patrick; Naudts, Kim

    2018-04-01

    As the applications of Earth system models (ESMs) move from general climate projections toward questions of mitigation and adaptation, the inclusion of land management practices in these models becomes crucial. We carried out a survey among modeling groups to show an evolution from models able only to deal with land-cover change to more sophisticated approaches that allow also for the partial integration of land management changes. For the longer term a comprehensive land management representation can be anticipated for all major models. To guide the prioritization of implementation, we evaluate ten land management practices-forestry harvest, tree species selection, grazing and mowing harvest, crop harvest, crop species selection, irrigation, wetland drainage, fertilization, tillage, and fire-for (1) their importance on the Earth system, (2) the possibility of implementing them in state-of-the-art ESMs, and (3) availability of required input data. Matching these criteria, we identify "low-hanging fruits" for the inclusion in ESMs, such as basic implementations of crop and forestry harvest and fertilization. We also identify research requirements for specific communities to address the remaining land management practices. Data availability severely hampers modeling the most extensive land management practice, grazing and mowing harvest, and is a limiting factor for a comprehensive implementation of most other practices. Inadequate process understanding hampers even a basic assessment of crop species selection and tillage effects. The need for multiple advanced model structures will be the challenge for a comprehensive implementation of most practices but considerable synergy can be gained using the same structures for different practices. A continuous and closer collaboration of the modeling, Earth observation, and land system science communities is thus required to achieve the inclusion of land management in ESMs. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Modelling Holocene carbon accumulation and methane emissions of boreal wetlands – an Earth system model approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. J. Schuldt

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Since the Last Glacial Maximum, boreal wetlands have accumulated substantial amounts of peat, estimated at 180–621 Pg of carbon. Wetlands have significantly affected the atmospheric greenhouse gas composition in the past and will play a significant role in future changes of atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations. In order to investigate those changes with an Earth system model, biogeochemical processes in boreal wetlands need to be accounted for. Thus, a model of peat accumulation and decay was developed and included in the land surface model JSBACH of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM. Here we present the evaluation of model results from 6000 yr BP to the pre-industrial period. Over this period of time, 240 Pg of peat carbon accumulated in the model in the areas north of 40° N. Simulated peat accumulation rates agree well with those reported for boreal wetlands. The model simulates CH4 emissions of 49.3 Tg CH4 yr−1 for 6000 yr BP and 51.5 Tg CH4 yr−1 for pre-industrial times. This is within the range of estimates in the literature, which range from 32 to 112 Tg CH4 yr−1 for boreal wetlands. The modelled methane emission for the West Siberian Lowlands and Hudson Bay Lowlands agree well with observations. The rising trend of methane emissions over the last 6000 yr is in agreement with measurements of Antarctic and Greenland ice cores.

  13. A radiometric model of an earth radiation budget radiometer optical system with diffuse-specular surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luther, M. R.

    1981-01-01

    The Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) is to fly on NASA's Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) and on NOAA F and NOAA G. Large spatial scale earth energy budget data will be derived primarily from measurements made by the ERBE nonscanning instrument (ERBE-NS). A description is given of a mathematical model capable of simulating the radiometric response of any of the ERBE-NS earth viewing channels. The model uses a Monte Carlo method to accurately account for directional distributions of emission and reflection from optical surfaces which are neither strictly diffuse nor strictly specular. The model computes radiation exchange factors among optical system components, and determines the distribution in the optical system of energy from an outside source. Attention is also given to an approach for implementing the model and results obtained from the implementation.

  14. Challenges to modeling the Sun-Earth System: A Workshop Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spann, James F.

    2006-01-01

    This special issue of the Journal of' Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics is a compilation of 23 papers presented at The 2004 Huntsville Modeling Workshop: Challenges to Modeling thc San-Earth System held in Huntsville, AB on October 18-22, 2004. The title of the workshop appropriately captures the theme of what was presented and discussed by the 120 participants. Currently, end-to-end modeling of the Sun-Earth system is a major goal of the National Space Weather and NASA living with a star (LWS) programs. While profound advances have been made in modeling isolated regions of the Sun-Earth system, minimal progress has been achieved in modeling the end-to-end system. The transfer of mass, energy and momentum through the coupled Sun-Earth system spans a wide range of scales inn time and space. The uncertainty in the underlying physics responsible for coupling contiguous regions of the Sun-Earth system is recognized as a significant barrier to progress

  15. The utility of Earth system Models of Intermediate Complexity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weber, S.L.

    2010-01-01

    Intermediate-complexity models are models which describe the dynamics of the atmosphere and/or ocean in less detail than conventional General Circulation Models (GCMs). At the same time, they go beyond the approach taken by atmospheric Energy Balance Models (EBMs) or ocean box models by

  16. On the Tidal Evolution of the Earth-Moon System: A Cosmological Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arbab A. I.

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available We have presented a cosmological model for the tidal evolution of the Earth-Moon system. We have found that the expansion of the universe has immense consequences on our local systems. The model can be compared with the present observational data. The close approach problem inflicting the known tidal theory is averted in this model. We have also shown that the astronomical and geological changes of our local systems are of the order of Hubble constant.

  17. Towards a paradigm shift in the modeling of soil organic carbon decomposition for earth system models

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yujie

    Soils are the largest terrestrial carbon pools and contain approximately 2200 Pg of carbon. Thus, the dynamics of soil carbon plays an important role in the global carbon cycle and climate system. Earth System Models are used to project future interactions between terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics and climate. However, these models often predict a wide range of soil carbon responses and their formulations have lagged behind recent soil science advances, omitting key biogeochemical mechanisms. In contrast, recent mechanistically-based biogeochemical models that explicitly account for microbial biomass pools and enzyme kinetics that catalyze soil carbon decomposition produce notably different results and provide a closer match to recent observations. However, a systematic evaluation of the advantages and disadvantages of the microbial models and how they differ from empirical, first-order formulations in soil decomposition models for soil organic carbon is still needed. This dissertation consists of a series of model sensitivity and uncertainty analyses and identifies dominant decomposition processes in determining soil organic carbon dynamics. Poorly constrained processes or parameters that require more experimental data integration are also identified. This dissertation also demonstrates the critical role of microbial life-history traits (e.g. microbial dormancy) in the modeling of microbial activity in soil organic matter decomposition models. Finally, this study surveys and synthesizes a number of recently published microbial models and provides suggestions for future microbial model developments.

  18. Exploring the isopycnal mixing and helium-heat paradoxes in a suite of Earth System Models

    OpenAIRE

    A. Gnanadesikan; R. Abernathey; M.-A. Pradal

    2014-01-01

    This paper uses a suite of Earth system models which simulate the distribution of He isotopes and radiocarbon to examine two paradoxes in Earth science, each of which results from an inconsistency between theoretically motivated global energy balances and direct observations. The helium–heat paradox refers to the fact that helium emissions to the deep ocean are far lower than would be expected given the rate of geothermal heating, since both are thought to b...

  19. Freva - Freie Univ Evaluation System Framework for Scientific HPC Infrastructures in Earth System Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadow, C.; Illing, S.; Schartner, T.; Grieger, J.; Kirchner, I.; Rust, H.; Cubasch, U.; Ulbrich, U.

    2017-12-01

    The Freie Univ Evaluation System Framework (Freva - freva.met.fu-berlin.de) is a software infrastructure for standardized data and tool solutions in Earth system science (e.g. www-miklip.dkrz.de, cmip-eval.dkrz.de). Freva runs on high performance computers to handle customizable evaluation systems of research projects, institutes or universities. It combines different software technologies into one common hybrid infrastructure, including all features present in the shell and web environment. The database interface satisfies the international standards provided by the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF). Freva indexes different data projects into one common search environment by storing the meta data information of the self-describing model, reanalysis and observational data sets in a database. This implemented meta data system with its advanced but easy-to-handle search tool supports users, developers and their plugins to retrieve the required information. A generic application programming interface (API) allows scientific developers to connect their analysis tools with the evaluation system independently of the programming language used. Users of the evaluation techniques benefit from the common interface of the evaluation system without any need to understand the different scripting languages. The integrated web-shell (shellinabox) adds a degree of freedom in the choice of the working environment and can be used as a gate to the research projects HPC. Plugins are able to integrate their e.g. post-processed results into the database of the user. This allows e.g. post-processing plugins to feed statistical analysis plugins, which fosters an active exchange between plugin developers of a research project. Additionally, the history and configuration sub-system stores every analysis performed with the evaluation system in a database. Configurations and results of the tools can be shared among scientists via shell or web system. Furthermore, if configurations match

  20. Freva - Freie Univ Evaluation System Framework for Scientific Infrastructures in Earth System Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadow, Christopher; Illing, Sebastian; Kunst, Oliver; Schartner, Thomas; Kirchner, Ingo; Rust, Henning W.; Cubasch, Ulrich; Ulbrich, Uwe

    2016-04-01

    The Freie Univ Evaluation System Framework (Freva - freva.met.fu-berlin.de) is a software infrastructure for standardized data and tool solutions in Earth system science. Freva runs on high performance computers to handle customizable evaluation systems of research projects, institutes or universities. It combines different software technologies into one common hybrid infrastructure, including all features present in the shell and web environment. The database interface satisfies the international standards provided by the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF). Freva indexes different data projects into one common search environment by storing the meta data information of the self-describing model, reanalysis and observational data sets in a database. This implemented meta data system with its advanced but easy-to-handle search tool supports users, developers and their plugins to retrieve the required information. A generic application programming interface (API) allows scientific developers to connect their analysis tools with the evaluation system independently of the programming language used. Users of the evaluation techniques benefit from the common interface of the evaluation system without any need to understand the different scripting languages. Facilitation of the provision and usage of tools and climate data automatically increases the number of scientists working with the data sets and identifying discrepancies. The integrated web-shell (shellinabox) adds a degree of freedom in the choice of the working environment and can be used as a gate to the research projects HPC. Plugins are able to integrate their e.g. post-processed results into the database of the user. This allows e.g. post-processing plugins to feed statistical analysis plugins, which fosters an active exchange between plugin developers of a research project. Additionally, the history and configuration sub-system stores every analysis performed with the evaluation system in a database

  1. Development of a system emulating the global carbon cycle in Earth system models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tachiiri, K.; Hargreaves, J. C.; Annan, J. D.; Oka, A.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Kawamiya, M.

    2010-08-01

    Recent studies have indicated that the uncertainty in the global carbon cycle may have a significant impact on the climate. Since state of the art models are too computationally expensive for it to be possible to explore their parametric uncertainty in anything approaching a comprehensive fashion, we have developed a simplified system for investigating this problem. By combining the strong points of general circulation models (GCMs), which contain detailed and complex processes, and Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs), which are quick and capable of large ensembles, we have developed a loosely coupled model (LCM) which can represent the outputs of a GCM-based Earth system model, using much smaller computational resources. We address the problem of relatively poor representation of precipitation within our EMIC, which prevents us from directly coupling it to a vegetation model, by coupling it to a precomputed transient simulation using a full GCM. The LCM consists of three components: an EMIC (MIROC-lite) which consists of a 2-D energy balance atmosphere coupled to a low resolution 3-D GCM ocean (COCO) including an ocean carbon cycle (an NPZD-type marine ecosystem model); a state of the art vegetation model (Sim-CYCLE); and a database of daily temperature, precipitation, and other necessary climatic fields to drive Sim-CYCLE from a precomputed transient simulation from a state of the art AOGCM. The transient warming of the climate system is calculated from MIROC-lite, with the global temperature anomaly used to select the most appropriate annual climatic field from the pre-computed AOGCM simulation which, in this case, is a 1% pa increasing CO2 concentration scenario. By adjusting the effective climate sensitivity (equivalent to the equilibrium climate sensitivity for an energy balance model) of MIROC-lite, the transient warming of the LCM could be adjusted to closely follow the low sensitivity (with an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 4.0 K

  2. Development of a system emulating the global carbon cycle in Earth system models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Tachiiri

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies have indicated that the uncertainty in the global carbon cycle may have a significant impact on the climate. Since state of the art models are too computationally expensive for it to be possible to explore their parametric uncertainty in anything approaching a comprehensive fashion, we have developed a simplified system for investigating this problem. By combining the strong points of general circulation models (GCMs, which contain detailed and complex processes, and Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs, which are quick and capable of large ensembles, we have developed a loosely coupled model (LCM which can represent the outputs of a GCM-based Earth system model, using much smaller computational resources. We address the problem of relatively poor representation of precipitation within our EMIC, which prevents us from directly coupling it to a vegetation model, by coupling it to a precomputed transient simulation using a full GCM. The LCM consists of three components: an EMIC (MIROC-lite which consists of a 2-D energy balance atmosphere coupled to a low resolution 3-D GCM ocean (COCO including an ocean carbon cycle (an NPZD-type marine ecosystem model; a state of the art vegetation model (Sim-CYCLE; and a database of daily temperature, precipitation, and other necessary climatic fields to drive Sim-CYCLE from a precomputed transient simulation from a state of the art AOGCM. The transient warming of the climate system is calculated from MIROC-lite, with the global temperature anomaly used to select the most appropriate annual climatic field from the pre-computed AOGCM simulation which, in this case, is a 1% pa increasing CO2 concentration scenario.

    By adjusting the effective climate sensitivity (equivalent to the equilibrium climate sensitivity for an energy balance model of MIROC-lite, the transient warming of the LCM could be adjusted to closely follow the low sensitivity (with an equilibrium

  3. Climate Science: How Earth System Models are Reshaping the Science Policy Interface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex

    2015-01-01

    This talk is oriented at a general audience including the largest French utility company, and will describe the basics of climate change before moving into emissions scenarios and agricultural impacts that we can test with our earth system models and impacts models.

  4. The computational future for climate and Earth system models: on the path to petaflop and beyond.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Washington, Warren M; Buja, Lawrence; Craig, Anthony

    2009-03-13

    The development of the climate and Earth system models has had a long history, starting with the building of individual atmospheric, ocean, sea ice, land vegetation, biogeochemical, glacial and ecological model components. The early researchers were much aware of the long-term goal of building the Earth system models that would go beyond what is usually included in the climate models by adding interactive biogeochemical interactions. In the early days, the progress was limited by computer capability, as well as by our knowledge of the physical and chemical processes. Over the last few decades, there has been much improved knowledge, better observations for validation and more powerful supercomputer systems that are increasingly meeting the new challenges of comprehensive models. Some of the climate model history will be presented, along with some of the successes and difficulties encountered with present-day supercomputer systems.

  5. An earth system model for evaluation of dry deposition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arritt, R.W. [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)

    1994-12-31

    A coupled model of atmosphere, soil, and vegetation showed that interactions among the various components can have important effects on dry deposition of SO{sub 2}. In particular, dry soil (near or below the wilting point) leads to an increase of stomatal resistance and a decrease in deposition. Once the soil moisture is at least twice the wilting point, the model results indicate that additional moisture has little effect on the accumulated daytime dry deposition.

  6. Soil carbon management in large-scale Earth system modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olin, S.; Lindeskog, M.; Pugh, T. A. M.

    2015-01-01

    , carbon sequestration and nitrogen leaching from croplands are evaluated and discussed. Compared to the version of LPJ-GUESS that does not include land-use dynamics, estimates of soil carbon stocks and nitrogen leaching from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems were improved. Our model experiments allow us...

  7. A new model of the Earth system nitrogen cycle: how plates and life affect the atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, B. W.; Goldblatt, C.

    2017-12-01

    Nitrogen is the main component of Earth's atmosphere. It plays a key role in the evolution of the biosphere and surface of Earth [1]. There are contrasting views, however, on how N has evolved on the surface of the Earth over time. Some modeling efforts [e.g., 2] indicate a steady-state level of N in the atmosphere over geologic time, while geochemical [e.g., 3], other proxies [e.g., 4], and more recent models [5] indicate the mass of N in the atmosphere can change dramatically over Earth history. This conundrum, and potential solutions to it, present distinct interpretations of the history of Earth, and teleconnections between the surface and interior of the planet have applications to other terrestrial bodies as well. To help investigate this conundrum, we have constructed an Earth-system N cycle box model. To our knowledge, this is the most capable model for addressing evolution of the N reservoirs of Earth through time. The model combines biologic and geologic processes, driven by a mantle cooling history, to more fully describe the N cycle through geologic history. In addition to a full biologic N cycle (fixing, nitrification, denitrification), we also dynamically solve for PO4 through time and we have a prescribed O2 history. Results indicate that the atmosphere of Earth could have experienced major changes in mass over geologic time. Importantly, the amount of N in the atmosphere today appears to be directly related to the total N budget of the silicate Earth. For example, high initial atmospheric mass, suggested as a solution to the Faint Young Sun Paradox [1], is drawn down over time. This supports work that indicates the mantle has significantly more N than the atmosphere does today [6]. Contrastingly, model runs with low total N result in a crash in atmospheric mass. In nearly all model runs the bulk silicate Earth contains the majority of the planet's N. [1] Goldblatt et al. (2009) Nat. Geosci., 2, 891-896. [2] Berner, R. (2006) Geology., 34, 413

  8. A New Discrete Element Sea-Ice Model for Earth System Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turner, Adrian Keith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-03-10

    Sea ice forms a frozen crust of sea water oating in high-latitude oceans. It is a critical component of the Earth system because its formation helps to drive the global thermohaline circulation, and its seasonal waxing and waning in the high north and Southern Ocean signi cantly affects planetary albedo. Usually 4{6% of Earth's marine surface is covered by sea ice at any one time, which limits the exchange of heat, momentum, and mass between the atmosphere and ocean in the polar realms. Snow accumulates on sea ice and inhibits its vertical growth, increases its albedo, and contributes to pooled water in melt ponds that darken the Arctic ice surface in the spring. Ice extent and volume are subject to strong seasonal, inter-annual and hemispheric variations, and climatic trends, which Earth System Models (ESMs) are challenged to simulate accurately (Stroeve et al., 2012; Stocker et al., 2013). This is because there are strong coupled feedbacks across the atmosphere-ice-ocean boundary layers, including the ice-albedo feedback, whereby a reduced ice cover leads to increased upper ocean heating, further enhancing sea-ice melt and reducing incident solar radiation re ected back into the atmosphere (Perovich et al., 2008). A reduction in perennial Arctic sea-ice during the satellite era has been implicated in mid-latitude weather changes, including over North America (Overland et al., 2015). Meanwhile, most ESMs have been unable to simulate observed inter-annual variability and trends in Antarctic sea-ice extent during the same period (Gagne et al., 2014).

  9. MODELLING EARTH SYSTEM CHANGES THROUGH THE SHURUM-WONOKA ANOMALY

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerrum, Christian J.; Canfield, D. E.

    the oxygen isotope record is considered to be more sensitive to post depositional diagenesis. The Neoproterozoic d13CIC record, however, reveals prolonged excursions to less than mantle values that cannot be explained by our normal understanding of the carbon cycle. We present a quantitative model...... a powerful greenhouse gas, methane increased temperature and melted icecaps. These combined to produce a negative 18O anomaly, while the higher temperatures also accelerated the weathering of continental rocks, drawing down atmospheric CO2. Lower CO2, in turn, reduced the isotope fractionation between DIC...

  10. Ocean carbon and heat variability in an Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, J. L.; Waugh, D.; Gnanadesikan, A.

    2016-12-01

    Ocean carbon and heat content are very important for regulating global climate. Furthermore, due to lack of observations and dependence on parameterizations, there has been little consensus in the modeling community on the magnitude of realistic ocean carbon and heat content variability, particularly in the Southern Ocean. We assess the differences between global oceanic heat and carbon content variability in GFDL ESM2Mc using a 500-year, pre-industrial control simulation. The global carbon and heat content are directly out of phase with each other; however, in the Southern Ocean the heat and carbon content are in phase. The global heat mutli-decadal variability is primarily explained by variability in the tropics and mid-latitudes, while the variability in global carbon content is primarily explained by Southern Ocean variability. In order to test the robustness of this relationship, we use three additional pre-industrial control simulations using different mesoscale mixing parameterizations. Three pre-industrial control simulations are conducted with the along-isopycnal diffusion coefficient (Aredi) set to constant values of 400, 800 (control) and 2400 m2 s-1. These values for Aredi are within the range of parameter settings commonly used in modeling groups. Finally, one pre-industrial control simulation is conducted where the minimum in the Gent-McWilliams parameterization closure scheme (AGM) increased to 600 m2 s-1. We find that the different simulations have very different multi-decadal variability, especially in the Weddell Sea where the characteristics of deep convection are drastically changed. While the temporal frequency and amplitude global heat and carbon content changes significantly, the overall spatial pattern of variability remains unchanged between the simulations.

  11. A Community Framework for Integrative, Coupled Modeling of Human-Earth Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, C. M.; Nelson, G. C.; Tucker, G. E.; Lee, A.; Porter, C.; Ullah, I.; Hutton, E.; Hoogenboom, G.; Rogers, K. G.; Pritchard, C.

    2017-12-01

    We live today in a humanized world, where critical zone dynamics are driven by coupled human and biophysical processes. First generation modeling platforms have been invaluable in providing insight into dynamics of biophysical systems and social systems. But to understand today's humanized planet scientifically and to manage it sustainably, we need integrative modeling of this coupled human-Earth system. To address both scientific and policy questions, we also need modeling that can represent variable combinations of human-Earth system processes at multiple scales. Simply adding more code needed to do this to large, legacy first generation models is impractical, expensive, and will make them even more difficult to evaluate or understand. We need an approach to modeling that mirrors and benefits from the architecture of the complexly coupled systems we hope to model. Building on a series of international workshops over the past two years, we present a community framework to enable and support an ecosystem of diverse models as components that can be interconnected as needed to facilitate understanding of a range of complex human-earth systems interactions. Models are containerized in Docker to make them platform independent. A Basic Modeling Interface and Standard Names ontology (developed by the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System) is applied to make them interoperable. They are then transformed into RESTful micro-services to allow them to be connected and run in a browser environment. This enables a flexible, multi-scale modeling environment to help address diverse issues with combinations of smaller, focused, component models that are easier to understand and evaluate. We plan to develop, deploy, and maintain this framework for integrated, coupled modeling in an open-source collaborative development environment that can democratize access to advanced technology and benefit from diverse global participation in model development. We also present an initial

  12. Carbon isotopes in the ocean model of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Jahn

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Carbon isotopes in the ocean are frequently used as paleoclimate proxies and as present-day geochemical ocean tracers. In order to allow a more direct comparison of climate model results with this large and currently underutilized data set, we added a carbon isotope module to the ocean model of the Community Earth System Model (CESM, containing the cycling of the stable isotope 13C and the radioactive isotope 14C. We implemented the 14C tracer in two ways: in the "abiotic" case, the 14C tracer is only subject to air–sea gas exchange, physical transport, and radioactive decay, while in the "biotic" version, the 14C additionally follows the 13C tracer through all biogeochemical and ecological processes. Thus, the abiotic 14C tracer can be run without the ecosystem module, requiring significantly fewer computational resources. The carbon isotope module calculates the carbon isotopic fractionation during gas exchange, photosynthesis, and calcium carbonate formation, while any subsequent biological process such as remineralization as well as any external inputs are assumed to occur without fractionation. Given the uncertainty associated with the biological fractionation during photosynthesis, we implemented and tested three parameterizations of different complexity. Compared to present-day observations, the model is able to simulate the oceanic 14C bomb uptake and the 13C Suess effect reasonably well compared to observations and other model studies. At the same time, the carbon isotopes reveal biases in the physical model, for example, too sluggish ventilation of the deep Pacific Ocean.

  13. Carbon isotopes in the ocean model of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahn, A.; Lindsay, K.; Giraud, X.; Gruber, N.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Liu, Z.; Brady, E. C.

    2015-08-01

    Carbon isotopes in the ocean are frequently used as paleoclimate proxies and as present-day geochemical ocean tracers. In order to allow a more direct comparison of climate model results with this large and currently underutilized data set, we added a carbon isotope module to the ocean model of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), containing the cycling of the stable isotope 13C and the radioactive isotope 14C. We implemented the 14C tracer in two ways: in the "abiotic" case, the 14C tracer is only subject to air-sea gas exchange, physical transport, and radioactive decay, while in the "biotic" version, the 14C additionally follows the 13C tracer through all biogeochemical and ecological processes. Thus, the abiotic 14C tracer can be run without the ecosystem module, requiring significantly fewer computational resources. The carbon isotope module calculates the carbon isotopic fractionation during gas exchange, photosynthesis, and calcium carbonate formation, while any subsequent biological process such as remineralization as well as any external inputs are assumed to occur without fractionation. Given the uncertainty associated with the biological fractionation during photosynthesis, we implemented and tested three parameterizations of different complexity. Compared to present-day observations, the model is able to simulate the oceanic 14C bomb uptake and the 13C Suess effect reasonably well compared to observations and other model studies. At the same time, the carbon isotopes reveal biases in the physical model, for example, too sluggish ventilation of the deep Pacific Ocean.

  14. Incorporation of ice sheet models into an Earth system model: Focus on methodology of coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rybak, Oleg; Volodin, Evgeny; Morozova, Polina; Nevecherja, Artiom

    2018-03-01

    Elaboration of a modern Earth system model (ESM) requires incorporation of ice sheet dynamics. Coupling of an ice sheet model (ICM) to an AOGCM is complicated by essential differences in spatial and temporal scales of cryospheric, atmospheric and oceanic components. To overcome this difficulty, we apply two different approaches for the incorporation of ice sheets into an ESM. Coupling of the Antarctic ice sheet model (AISM) to the AOGCM is accomplished via using procedures of resampling, interpolation and assigning to the AISM grid points annually averaged meanings of air surface temperature and precipitation fields generated by the AOGCM. Surface melting, which takes place mainly on the margins of the Antarctic peninsula and on ice shelves fringing the continent, is currently ignored. AISM returns anomalies of surface topography back to the AOGCM. To couple the Greenland ice sheet model (GrISM) to the AOGCM, we use a simple buffer energy- and water-balance model (EWBM-G) to account for orographically-driven precipitation and other sub-grid AOGCM-generated quantities. The output of the EWBM-G consists of surface mass balance and air surface temperature to force the GrISM, and freshwater run-off to force thermohaline circulation in the oceanic block of the AOGCM. Because of a rather complex coupling procedure of GrIS compared to AIS, the paper mostly focuses on Greenland.

  15. 8 years of experience in international, interdisciplinary and structured doctoral training in Earth system modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weitz, Antje; Stevens, Bjorn; Marotzke, Jochem

    2010-05-01

    The mission of the International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling (IMPRS-ESM) is to provide a high quality, modern and structured graduate education to students pursuing a doctoral degree in Earth system modelling. In so doing, the IMPRS-ESM also strives to advance the emerging discipline (or cross-discipline) of Earth system modelling; to provide a framework for attracting the most talented and creative young women and men from around the world to pursue their doctoral education in Germany; to provide advanced as well as specialized academic training and scientific guidance to doctoral students; to encourage academic networking and publication of research results; to better integrate doctoral research at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) with education and research at the University of Hamburg and other cooperating institutions. Core elements are rigorous selection of doctoral students, effective academic supervision, advanced academic training opportunities and interdisciplinary communication as well as administrative support. IMPRS-ESM graduates have been recognized with a variety of awards. 85% of our alumni continue a career in research. In this presentation we review the challenges for an interdisciplinary PhD program in Earth system sciences and the types of routines we have implemented to surmount them as well as key elements that we believe contribute to the success of our doctoral program.

  16. Introducing a boreal wetland model within the Earth System model framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getzieh, R. J.; Brovkin, V.; Reick, C.; Kleinen, T.; Raddatz, T.; Raivonen, M.; Sevanto, S.

    2009-04-01

    Wetlands of the northern high latitudes with their low temperatures and waterlogged conditions are prerequisite for peat accumulation. They store at least 25% of the global soil organic carbon and constitute currently the largest natural source of methane. These boreal and subarctic peat carbon pools are sensitive to climate change since the ratio of carbon sequestration and emission is closely dependent on hydrology and temperature. Global biogeochemistry models used for simulations of CO2 dynamics in the past and future climates usually ignore changes in the peat storages. Our approach aims at the evaluation of the boreal wetland feedback to climate through the CO2 and CH4 fluxes on decadal to millennial time scales. A generic model of organic matter accumulation and decay in boreal wetlands is under development in the MPI for Meteorology in cooperation with the University of Helsinki. Our approach is to develop a wetland model which is consistent with the physical and biogeochemical components of the land surface module JSBACH as a part of the Earth System model framework ECHAM5-MPIOM-JSBACH. As prototypes, we use modelling approach by Frolking et al. (2001) for the peat dynamics and the wetland model by Wania (2007) for vegetation cover and plant productivity. An initial distribution of wetlands follows the GLWD-3 map by Lehner and Döll (2004). First results of the modelling approach will be presented. References: Frolking, S. E., N. T. Roulet, T. R. Moore, P. J. H. Richard, M. Lavoie and S. D. Muller (2001): Modeling Northern Peatland Decomposition and Peat Accumulation, Ecosystems, 4, 479-498. Lehner, B., Döll P. (2004): Development and validation of a global database of lakes, reservoirs and wetlands. Journal of Hydrology 296 (1-4), 1-22. Wania, R. (2007): Modelling northern peatland land surface processes, vegetation dynamics and methane emissions. PhD thesis, University of Bristol, 122 pp.

  17. New earth system model for optical performance evaluation of space instruments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryu, Dongok; Kim, Sug-Whan; Breault, Robert P

    2017-03-06

    In this study, a new global earth system model is introduced for evaluating the optical performance of space instruments. Simultaneous imaging and spectroscopic results are provided using this global earth system model with fully resolved spatial, spectral, and temporal coverage of sub-models of the Earth. The sun sub-model is a Lambertian scattering sphere with a 6-h scale and 295 lines of solar spectral irradiance. The atmospheric sub-model has a 15-layer three-dimensional (3D) ellipsoid structure. The land sub-model uses spectral bidirectional reflectance distribution functions (BRDF) defined by a semi-empirical parametric kernel model. The ocean is modeled with the ocean spectral albedo after subtracting the total integrated scattering of the sun-glint scatter model. A hypothetical two-mirror Cassegrain telescope with a 300-mm-diameter aperture and 21.504 mm × 21.504-mm focal plane imaging instrument is designed. The simulated image results are compared with observational data from HRI-VIS measurements during the EPOXI mission for approximately 24 h from UTC Mar. 18, 2008. Next, the defocus mapping result and edge spread function (ESF) measuring result show that the distance between the primary and secondary mirror increases by 55.498 μm from the diffraction-limited condition. The shift of the focal plane is determined to be 5.813 mm shorter than that of the defocused focal plane, and this result is confirmed through the estimation of point spread function (PSF) measurements. This study shows that the earth system model combined with an instrument model is a powerful tool that can greatly help the development phase of instrument missions.

  18. Development of hybrid 3-D hydrological modeling for the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zeng, Xubin [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Troch, Peter [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Pelletier, Jon [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Niu, Guo-Yue [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Gochis, David [NCAR Research Applications (RAL), Boulder, CO (United States)

    2015-11-15

    This is the Final Report of our four-year (3-year plus one-year no cost extension) collaborative project between the University of Arizona (UA) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The overall objective of our project is to develop and evaluate the first hybrid 3-D hydrological model with a horizontal grid spacing of 1 km for the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM). We have made substantial progress in model development and evaluation, computational efficiencies and software engineering, and data development and evaluation, as discussed in Sections 2-4. Section 5 presents our success in data dissemination, while Section 6 discusses the scientific impacts of our work. Section 7 discusses education and mentoring success of our project, while Section 8 lists our relevant DOE services. All peer-reviewed papers that acknowledged this project are listed in Section 9. Highlights of our achievements include: • We have finished 20 papers (most published already) on model development and evaluation, computational efficiencies and software engineering, and data development and evaluation • The global datasets developed under this project have been permanently archived and publicly available • Some of our research results have already been implemented in WRF and CLM • Patrick Broxton and Michael Brunke have received their Ph.D. • PI Zeng has served on DOE proposal review panels and DOE lab scientific focus area (SFA) review panels

  19. Steering operational synergies in terrestrial observation networks: opportunity for advancing Earth system dynamics modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Baatz

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Advancing our understanding of Earth system dynamics (ESD depends on the development of models and other analytical tools that apply physical, biological, and chemical data. This ambition to increase understanding and develop models of ESD based on site observations was the stimulus for creating the networks of Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER, Critical Zone Observatories (CZOs, and others. We organized a survey, the results of which identified pressing gaps in data availability from these networks, in particular for the future development and evaluation of models that represent ESD processes, and provide insights for improvement in both data collection and model integration. From this survey overview of data applications in the context of LTER and CZO research, we identified three challenges: (1 widen application of terrestrial observation network data in Earth system modelling, (2 develop integrated Earth system models that incorporate process representation and data of multiple disciplines, and (3 identify complementarity in measured variables and spatial extent, and promoting synergies in the existing observational networks. These challenges lead to perspectives and recommendations for an improved dialogue between the observation networks and the ESD modelling community, including co-location of sites in the existing networks and further formalizing these recommendations among these communities. Developing these synergies will enable cross-site and cross-network comparison and synthesis studies, which will help produce insights around organizing principles, classifications, and general rules of coupling processes with environmental conditions.

  20. Steering operational synergies in terrestrial observation networks: opportunity for advancing Earth system dynamics modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baatz, Roland; Sullivan, Pamela L.; Li, Li; Weintraub, Samantha R.; Loescher, Henry W.; Mirtl, Michael; Groffman, Peter M.; Wall, Diana H.; Young, Michael; White, Tim; Wen, Hang; Zacharias, Steffen; Kühn, Ingolf; Tang, Jianwu; Gaillardet, Jérôme; Braud, Isabelle; Flores, Alejandro N.; Kumar, Praveen; Lin, Henry; Ghezzehei, Teamrat; Jones, Julia; Gholz, Henry L.; Vereecken, Harry; Van Looy, Kris

    2018-05-01

    Advancing our understanding of Earth system dynamics (ESD) depends on the development of models and other analytical tools that apply physical, biological, and chemical data. This ambition to increase understanding and develop models of ESD based on site observations was the stimulus for creating the networks of Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER), Critical Zone Observatories (CZOs), and others. We organized a survey, the results of which identified pressing gaps in data availability from these networks, in particular for the future development and evaluation of models that represent ESD processes, and provide insights for improvement in both data collection and model integration. From this survey overview of data applications in the context of LTER and CZO research, we identified three challenges: (1) widen application of terrestrial observation network data in Earth system modelling, (2) develop integrated Earth system models that incorporate process representation and data of multiple disciplines, and (3) identify complementarity in measured variables and spatial extent, and promoting synergies in the existing observational networks. These challenges lead to perspectives and recommendations for an improved dialogue between the observation networks and the ESD modelling community, including co-location of sites in the existing networks and further formalizing these recommendations among these communities. Developing these synergies will enable cross-site and cross-network comparison and synthesis studies, which will help produce insights around organizing principles, classifications, and general rules of coupling processes with environmental conditions.

  1. Improved Analysis of Earth System Models and Observations using Simple Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadiga, B. T.; Urban, N. M.

    2016-12-01

    Earth system models (ESM) are the most comprehensive tools we have to study climate change and develop climate projections. However, the computational infrastructure required and the cost incurred in running such ESMs precludes direct use of such models in conjunction with a wide variety of tools that can further our understanding of climate. Here we are referring to tools that range from dynamical systems tools that give insight into underlying flow structure and topology to tools that come from various applied mathematical and statistical techniques and are central to quantifying stability, sensitivity, uncertainty and predictability to machine learning tools that are now being rapidly developed or improved. Our approach to facilitate the use of such models is to analyze output of ESM experiments (cf. CMIP) using a range of simpler models that consider integral balances of important quantities such as mass and/or energy in a Bayesian framework.We highlight the use of this approach in the context of the uptake of heat by the world oceans in the ongoing global warming. Indeed, since in excess of 90% of the anomalous radiative forcing due greenhouse gas emissions is sequestered in the world oceans, the nature of ocean heat uptake crucially determines the surface warming that is realized (cf. climate sensitivity). Nevertheless, ESMs themselves are never run long enough to directly assess climate sensitivity. So, we consider a range of models based on integral balances--balances that have to be realized in all first-principles based models of the climate system including the most detailed state-of-the art climate simulations. The models range from simple models of energy balance to those that consider dynamically important ocean processes such as the conveyor-belt circulation (Meridional Overturning Circulation, MOC), North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation, Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and eddy mixing. Results from Bayesian analysis of such models using

  2. Towards representing human behavior and decision making in Earth system models. An overview of techniques and approaches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Müller-Hansen, Finn; Schlüter, Maja; Maes, Michael; Donges, Jonathan F.; Kolb, Jakob J.; Thonicke, Kirsten; Heitzig, Jobst

    2017-01-01

    Today, humans have a critical impact on the Earth system and vice versa, which can generate complex feedback processes between social and ecological dynamics. Integrating human behavior into formal Earth system models (ESMs), however, requires crucial modeling assumptions about actors and their

  3. AMOC decadal variability in Earth system models: Mechanisms and climate impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fedorov, Alexey [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States)

    2017-09-06

    This is the final report for the project titled "AMOC decadal variability in Earth system models: Mechanisms and climate impacts". The central goal of this one-year research project was to understand the mechanisms of decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) within a hierarchy of climate models ranging from realistic ocean GCMs to Earth system models. The AMOC is a key element of ocean circulation responsible for oceanic transport of heat from low to high latitudes and controlling, to a large extent, climate variations in the North Atlantic. The questions of the AMOC stability, variability and predictability, directly relevant to the questions of climate predictability, were at the center of the research work.

  4. Harnessing Big Data to Represent 30-meter Spatial Heterogeneity in Earth System Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaney, N.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.; Van Huijgevoort, M.; Milly, C.; Sulman, B. N.

    2016-12-01

    Terrestrial land surface processes play a critical role in the Earth system; they have a profound impact on the global climate, food and energy production, freshwater resources, and biodiversity. One of the most fascinating yet challenging aspects of characterizing terrestrial ecosystems is their field-scale (˜30 m) spatial heterogeneity. It has been observed repeatedly that the water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles at multiple temporal and spatial scales have deep ties to an ecosystem's spatial structure. Current Earth system models largely disregard this important relationship leading to an inadequate representation of ecosystem dynamics. In this presentation, we will show how existing global environmental datasets can be harnessed to explicitly represent field-scale spatial heterogeneity in Earth system models. For each macroscale grid cell, these environmental data are clustered according to their field-scale soil and topographic attributes to define unique sub-grid tiles. The state-of-the-art Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) land model is then used to simulate these tiles and their spatial interactions via the exchange of water, energy, and nutrients along explicit topographic gradients. Using historical simulations over the contiguous United States, we will show how a robust representation of field-scale spatial heterogeneity impacts modeled ecosystem dynamics including the water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles as well as vegetation composition and distribution.

  5. Coupling integrated assessment and earth system models: concepts and an application to land use change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, B. C.; Lawrence, P.; Ren, X.

    2016-12-01

    Collaboration between the integrated assessment modeling (IAM) and earth system modeling (ESM) communities is increasing, driven by a growing interest in research questions that require analysis integrating both social and natural science components. This collaboration often takes the form of integrating their respective models. There are a number of approaches available to implement this integration, ranging from one-way linkages to full two-way coupling, as well as approaches that retain a single modeling framework but improve the representation of processes from the other framework. We discuss the pros and cons of these different approaches and the conditions under which a two-way coupling of IAMs and ESMs would be favored over a one-way linkage. We propose a criterion that is necessary and sufficient to motivate two-way coupling: A human process must have an effect on an earth system process that is large enough to cause a change in the original human process that is substantial compared to other uncertainties in the problem being investigated. We then illustrate a test of this criterion for land use-climate interactions based on work using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and land use scenarios from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), in which we find that the land use effect on regional climate is unlikely to meet the criterion. We then show an example of implementing a one-way linkage of land use and agriculture between an IAM, the integrated Population-Economy-Technology-Science (iPETS) model, and CESM that produces fully consistent outcomes between iPETS and the CESM land surface model. We use the linked system to model the influence of climate change on crop yields, agricultural land use, crop prices and food consumption under two alternative future climate scenarios. This application demonstrates the ability to link an IAM to a global land surface and climate model in a computationally efficient manner.

  6. Model Based Reasoning by Introductory Students When Analyzing Earth Systems and Societal Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holder, L. N.; Herbert, B. E.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding how students use their conceptual models to reason about societal challenges involving societal issues such as natural hazard risk assessment, environmental policy and management, and energy resources can improve instructional activity design that directly impacts student motivation and literacy. To address this question, we created four laboratory exercises for an introductory physical geology course at Texas A&M University that engages students in authentic scientific practices by using real world problems and issues that affect societies based on the theory of situated cognition. Our case-study design allows us to investigate the various ways that students utilize model based reasoning to identify and propose solutions to societally relevant issues. In each of the four interventions, approximately 60 students in three sections of introductory physical geology were expected to represent and evaluate scientific data, make evidence-based claims about the data trends, use those claims to express conceptual models, and use their models to analyze societal challenges. Throughout each step of the laboratory exercise students were asked to justify their claims, models, and data representations using evidence and through the use of argumentation with peers. Cognitive apprenticeship was the foundation for instruction used to scaffold students so that in the first exercise they are given a partially completed model and in the last exercise students are asked to generate a conceptual model on their own. Student artifacts, including representation of earth systems, representation of scientific data, verbal and written explanations of models and scientific arguments, and written solutions to specific societal issues or environmental problems surrounding earth systems, were analyzed through the use of a rubric that modeled authentic expertise and students were sorted into three categories. Written artifacts were examined to identify student argumentation and

  7. Earth System Science Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutherford, Sandra; Coffman, Margaret

    2004-01-01

    For several decades, science teachers have used bottles for classroom projects designed to teach students about biology. Bottle projects do not have to just focus on biology, however. These projects can also be used to engage students in Earth science topics. This article describes the Earth System Science Project, which was adapted and developed…

  8. Design strategies for human & earth systems modeling to meet emerging multi-scale decision support needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spak, S.; Pooley, M.

    2012-12-01

    The next generation of coupled human and earth systems models promises immense potential and grand challenges as they transition toward new roles as core tools for defining and living within planetary boundaries. New frontiers in community model development include not only computational, organizational, and geophysical process questions, but also the twin objectives of more meaningfully integrating the human dimension and extending applicability to informing policy decisions on a range of new and interconnected issues. We approach these challenges by posing key policy questions that require more comprehensive coupled human and geophysical models, identify necessary model and organizational processes and outputs, and work backwards to determine design criteria in response to these needs. We find that modular community earth system model design must: * seamlessly scale in space (global to urban) and time (nowcasting to paleo-studies) and fully coupled on all component systems * automatically differentiate to provide complete coupled forward and adjoint models for sensitivity studies, optimization applications, and 4DVAR assimilation across Earth and human observing systems * incorporate diagnostic tools to quantify uncertainty in couplings, and in how human activity affects them * integrate accessible community development and application with JIT-compilation, cloud computing, game-oriented interfaces, and crowd-sourced problem-solving We outline accessible near-term objectives toward these goals, and describe attempts to incorporate these design objectives in recent pilot activities using atmosphere-land-ocean-biosphere-human models (WRF-Chem, IBIS, UrbanSim) at urban and regional scales for policy applications in climate, energy, and air quality.

  9. The cloud-phase feedback in the Super-parameterized Community Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burt, M. A.; Randall, D. A.

    2016-12-01

    Recent comparisons of observations and climate model simulations by I. Tan and colleagues have suggested that the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen (WBF) process tends to be too active in climate models, making too much cloud ice, and resulting in an exaggerated negative cloud-phase feedback on climate change. We explore the WBF process and its effect on shortwave cloud forcing in present-day and future climate simulations with the Community Earth System Model, and its super-parameterized counterpart. Results show that SP-CESM has much less cloud ice and a weaker cloud-phase feedback than CESM.

  10. An Inquiry-Based Approach to Teaching the Spherical Earth Model to Preservice Teachers Using the Global Positioning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Youngjin; Schwenz, Richard

    2013-01-01

    This article describes an inquiry-based lesson to deepen preservice teachers' understanding of the spherical Earth model using the Global Positioning System. The lesson was designed with four learning goals: (1) to increase preservice teachers' conceptual knowledge of the spherical Earth model; (2) to develop preservice teachers'…

  11. Student Learning of Complex Earth Systems: A Model to Guide Development of Student Expertise in Problem-Solving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holder, Lauren N.; Scherer, Hannah H.; Herbert, Bruce E.

    2017-01-01

    Engaging students in problem-solving concerning environmental issues in near-surface complex Earth systems involves developing student conceptualization of the Earth as a system and applying that scientific knowledge to the problems using practices that model those used by professionals. In this article, we review geoscience education research…

  12. Uncertainty in Earth System Models: Benchmarks for Ocean Model Performance and Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogunro, O. O.; Elliott, S.; Collier, N.; Wingenter, O. W.; Deal, C.; Fu, W.; Hoffman, F. M.

    2017-12-01

    The mean ocean CO2 sink is a major component of the global carbon budget, with marine reservoirs holding about fifty times more carbon than the atmosphere. Phytoplankton play a significant role in the net carbon sink through photosynthesis and drawdown, such that about a quarter of anthropogenic CO2 emissions end up in the ocean. Biology greatly increases the efficiency of marine environments in CO2 uptake and ultimately reduces the impact of the persistent rise in atmospheric concentrations. However, a number of challenges remain in appropriate representation of marine biogeochemical processes in Earth System Models (ESM). These threaten to undermine the community effort to quantify seasonal to multidecadal variability in ocean uptake of atmospheric CO2. In a bid to improve analyses of marine contributions to climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, we have developed new analysis methods and biogeochemistry metrics as part of the International Ocean Model Benchmarking (IOMB) effort. Our intent is to meet the growing diagnostic and benchmarking needs of ocean biogeochemistry models. The resulting software package has been employed to validate DOE ocean biogeochemistry results by comparison with observational datasets. Several other international ocean models contributing results to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were analyzed simultaneously. Our comparisons suggest that the biogeochemical processes determining CO2 entry into the global ocean are not well represented in most ESMs. Polar regions continue to show notable biases in many critical biogeochemical and physical oceanographic variables. Some of these disparities could have first order impacts on the conversion of atmospheric CO2 to organic carbon. In addition, single forcing simulations show that the current ocean state can be partly explained by the uptake of anthropogenic emissions. Combined effects of two or more of these forcings on ocean biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems

  13. Dynamics of global vegetation biomass simulated by the integrated Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Di Vittorio, A. V.; Thornton, P. E.; Piao, S.; Yang, X.; Truesdale, J. E.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Chini, L. P.; Thomson, A. M.; Hurtt, G. C.; Collins, W.; Edmonds, J.

    2014-12-01

    The global vegetation biomass stores huge amounts of carbon and is thus important to the global carbon budget (Pan et al., 2010). For the past few decades, different observation-based estimates and modeling of biomass in the above- and below-ground vegetation compartments have been comprehensively conducted (Saatchi et al., 2011; Baccini et al., 2012). However, uncertainties still exist, in particular for the simulation of biomass magnitude, tendency, and the response of biomass to climatic conditions and natural and human disturbances. The recently successful coupling of the integrated Earth System Model (iESM) (Di Vittorio et al., 2014; Bond-Lamberty et al., 2014), which links the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), Global Land-use Model (GLM), and Community Earth System Model (CESM), offers a great opportunity to understand the biomass-related dynamics in a fully-coupled natural and human modeling system. In this study, we focus on the systematic analysis and evaluation of the iESM simulated historical (1850-2005) and future (2006-2100) biomass changes and the response of the biomass dynamics to various impact factors, in particular the human-induced Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC). By analyzing the iESM simulations with and without the interactive LULCC feedbacks, we further study how and where the climate feedbacks affect socioeconomic decisions and LULCC, such as to alter vegetation carbon storage. References Pan Y et. al: A large and persistent carbon sink in the World's forests. Science 2011, 333:988-993. Saatchi SS et al: Benchmark map of forest carbon stocks in tropical regions across three continents. Proc Natl Acad Sci 2011, 108:9899-9904. Baccini A et al: Estimated carbon dioxide emissions from tropical deforestation improved by carbon-density maps. Nature Clim Change 2012, 2:182-185. Di Vittorio AV et al: From land use to land cover: restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment-earth system model and the implications for

  14. Modeling and Analysis Compute Environments, Utilizing Virtualization Technology in the Climate and Earth Systems Science domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaelis, A.; Nemani, R. R.; Wang, W.; Votava, P.; Hashimoto, H.

    2010-12-01

    Given the increasing complexity of climate modeling and analysis tools, it is often difficult and expensive to build or recreate an exact replica of the software compute environment used in past experiments. With the recent development of new technologies for hardware virtualization, an opportunity exists to create full modeling, analysis and compute environments that are “archiveable”, transferable and may be easily shared amongst a scientific community or presented to a bureaucratic body if the need arises. By encapsulating and entire modeling and analysis environment in a virtual machine image, others may quickly gain access to the fully built system used in past experiments, potentially easing the task and reducing the costs of reproducing and verify past results produced by other researchers. Moreover, these virtual machine images may be used as a pedagogical tool for others that are interested in performing an academic exercise but don't yet possess the broad expertise required. We built two virtual machine images, one with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and one with Weather Research Forecast Model (WRF), then ran several small experiments to assess the feasibility, performance overheads costs, reusability, and transferability. We present a list of the pros and cons as well as lessoned learned from utilizing virtualization technology in the climate and earth systems modeling domain.

  15. Climate, ecosystems, and planetary futures: The challenge to predict life in Earth system models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonan, Gordon B; Doney, Scott C

    2018-02-02

    Many global change stresses on terrestrial and marine ecosystems affect not only ecosystem services that are essential to humankind, but also the trajectory of future climate by altering energy and mass exchanges with the atmosphere. Earth system models, which simulate terrestrial and marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles, offer a common framework for ecological research related to climate processes; analyses of vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation; and climate change mitigation. They provide an opportunity to move beyond physical descriptors of atmospheric and oceanic states to societally relevant quantities such as wildfire risk, habitat loss, water availability, and crop, fishery, and timber yields. To achieve this, the science of climate prediction must be extended to a more multifaceted Earth system prediction that includes the biosphere and its resources. Copyright © 2018, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  16. Progress Report 2008: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drake, John B [ORNL; Worley, Patrick H [ORNL; Hoffman, Forrest M [ORNL; Jones, Phil [Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL)

    2009-01-01

    This project employs multi-disciplinary teams to accelerate development of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), based at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). A consortium of eight Department of Energy (DOE) National Laboratories collaborate with NCAR and the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). The laboratories are Argonne (ANL), Brookhaven (BNL) Los Alamos (LANL), Lawrence Berkeley (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore (LLNL), Oak Ridge (ORNL), Pacific Northwest (PNNL) and Sandia (SNL). The work plan focuses on scalablity for petascale computation and extensibility to a more comprehensive earth system model. Our stated goal is to support the DOE mission in climate change research by helping ... To determine the range of possible climate changes over the 21st century and beyond through simulations using a more accurate climate system model that includes the full range of human and natural climate feedbacks with increased realism and spatial resolution.

  17. Toward an in-situ analytics and diagnostics framework for earth system models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anantharaj, Valentine; Wolf, Matthew; Rasch, Philip; Klasky, Scott; Williams, Dean; Jacob, Rob; Ma, Po-Lun; Kuo, Kwo-Sen

    2017-04-01

    The development roadmaps for many earth system models (ESM) aim for a globally cloud-resolving model targeting the pre-exascale and exascale systems of the future. The ESMs will also incorporate more complex physics, chemistry and biology - thereby vastly increasing the fidelity of the information content simulated by the model. We will then be faced with an unprecedented volume of simulation output that would need to be processed and analyzed concurrently in order to derive the valuable scientific results. We are already at this threshold with our current generation of ESMs at higher resolution simulations. Currently, the nominal I/O throughput in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) via Parallel IO (PIO) library is around 100 MB/s. If we look at the high frequency I/O requirements, it would require an additional 1 GB / simulated hour, translating to roughly 4 mins wallclock / simulated-day => 24.33 wallclock hours / simulated-model-year => 1,752,000 core-hours of charge per simulated-model-year on the Titan supercomputer at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility. There is also a pending need for 3X more volume of simulation output . Meanwhile, many ESMs use instrument simulators to run forward models to compare model simulations against satellite and ground-based instruments, such as radars and radiometers. The CFMIP Observation Simulator Package (COSP) is used in CESM as well as the Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME), one of the ESMs specifically targeting current and emerging leadership-class computing platforms These simulators can be computationally expensive, accounting for as much as 30% of the computational cost. Hence the data are often written to output files that are then used for offline calculations. Again, the I/O bottleneck becomes a limitation. Detection and attribution studies also use large volume of data for pattern recognition and feature extraction to analyze weather and climate phenomenon such as tropical cyclones

  18. Introducing Multisensor Satellite Radiance-Based Evaluation for Regional Earth System Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsui, T.; Santanello, J.; Shi, J. J.; Tao, W.-K.; Wu, D.; Peters-Lidard, C.; Kemp, E.; Chin, M.; Starr, D.; Sekiguchi, M.; hide

    2014-01-01

    Earth System modeling has become more complex, and its evaluation using satellite data has also become more difficult due to model and data diversity. Therefore, the fundamental methodology of using satellite direct measurements with instrumental simulators should be addressed especially for modeling community members lacking a solid background of radiative transfer and scattering theory. This manuscript introduces principles of multisatellite, multisensor radiance-based evaluation methods for a fully coupled regional Earth System model: NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model. We use a NU-WRF case study simulation over West Africa as an example of evaluating aerosol-cloud-precipitation-land processes with various satellite observations. NU-WRF-simulated geophysical parameters are converted to the satellite-observable raw radiance and backscatter under nearly consistent physics assumptions via the multisensor satellite simulator, the Goddard Satellite Data Simulator Unit. We present varied examples of simple yet robust methods that characterize forecast errors and model physics biases through the spatial and statistical interpretation of various satellite raw signals: infrared brightness temperature (Tb) for surface skin temperature and cloud top temperature, microwave Tb for precipitation ice and surface flooding, and radar and lidar backscatter for aerosol-cloud profiling simultaneously. Because raw satellite signals integrate many sources of geophysical information, we demonstrate user-defined thresholds and a simple statistical process to facilitate evaluations, including the infrared-microwave-based cloud types and lidar/radar-based profile classifications.

  19. An improved Rosetta pedotransfer function and evaluation in earth system models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Schaap, M. G.

    2017-12-01

    Soil hydraulic parameters are often difficult and expensive to measure, leading to the pedotransfer functions (PTFs) an alternative to predict those parameters. Rosetta (Schaap et al., 2001, denoted as Rosetta1) are widely used PTFs, which is based on artificial neural network (ANN) analysis coupled with the bootstrap re-sampling method, allowing the estimation of van Genuchten water retention parameters (van Genuchten, 1980, abbreviated here as VG), saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks), as well as their uncertainties. We present an improved hierarchical pedotransfer functions (Rosetta3) that unify the VG water retention and Ks submodels into one, thus allowing the estimation of uni-variate and bi-variate probability distributions of estimated parameters. Results show that the estimation bias of moisture content was reduced significantly. Rosetta1 and Posetta3 were implemented in the python programming language, and the source code are available online. Based on different soil water retention equations, there are diverse PTFs used in different disciplines of earth system modelings. PTFs based on Campbell [1974] or Clapp and Hornberger [1978] are frequently used in land surface models and general circulation models, while van Genuchten [1980] based PTFs are more widely used in hydrology and soil sciences. We use an independent global scale soil database to evaluate the performance of diverse PTFs used in different disciplines of earth system modelings. PTFs are evaluated based on different soil characteristics and environmental characteristics, such as soil textural data, soil organic carbon, soil pH, as well as precipitation and soil temperature. This analysis provides more quantitative estimation error information for PTF predictions in different disciplines of earth system modelings.

  20. Topology of sustainable management in dynamical Earth system models with desirable states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heitzig, J.; Kittel, T.

    2015-03-01

    To keep the Earth system in a desirable region of its state space, such as the recently suggested "tolerable environment and development window", "planetary boundaries", or "safe (and just) operating space", one not only needs to understand the quantitative internal dynamics of the system and the available options for influencing it (management), but also the structure of the system's state space with regard to certain qualitative differences. Important questions are: which state space regions can be reached from which others with or without leaving the desirable region? Which regions are in a variety of senses "safe" to stay in when management options might break away, and which qualitative decision problems may occur as a consequence of this topological structure? In this article, as a complement to the existing literature on optimal control which is more focussed on quantitative optimization and is much applied in both the engineering and the integrated assessment literature, we develop a mathematical theory of the qualitative topology of the state space of a dynamical system with management options and desirable states. We suggest a certain terminology for the various resulting regions of the state space and perform a detailed formal classification of the possible states with respect to the possibility of avoiding or leaving the undesired region. Our results indicate that before performing some form of quantitative optimization, the sustainable management of the Earth system may require decisions of a more discrete type that come in the form of several dilemmata, e.g., choosing between eventual safety and uninterrupted desirability, or between uninterrupted safety and increasing flexibility. We illustrate the concepts and dilemmata with conceptual models from classical mechanics, climate science, ecology, economics, and coevolutionary Earth system modelling and discuss their potential relevance for the climate and sustainability debate.

  1. Evaluating Land-Atmosphere Moisture Feedbacks in Earth System Models With Spaceborne Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, P. A.; Randerson, J. T.; Lawrence, D. M.; Swenson, S. C.

    2016-12-01

    We have developed a set of metrics for measuring the feedback loop between the land surface moisture state and the atmosphere globally on an interannual time scale. These metrics consider both the forcing of terrestrial water storage (TWS) on subsequent atmospheric conditions as well as the response of TWS to antecedent atmospheric conditions. We designed our metrics to take advantage of more than one decade's worth of satellite observations of TWS from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) along with atmospheric variables from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), and Clouds and the Earths Radiant Energy System (CERES). Metrics derived from spaceborne observations were used to evaluate the strength of the feedback loop in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble (LENS) and in several models that contributed simulations to Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We found that both forcing and response limbs of the feedback loop were generally stronger in tropical and temperate regions in CMIP5 models and even more so in LENS compared to satellite observations. Our analysis suggests that models may overestimate the strength of the feedbacks between the land surface and the atmosphere, which is consistent with previous studies conducted across different spatial and temporal scales.

  2. Final Report Collaborative Project. Improving the Representation of Coastal and Estuarine Processes in Earth System Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bryan, Frank [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Dennis, John [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); MacCready, Parker [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); Whitney, Michael [Univ. of Connecticut

    2015-11-20

    This project aimed to improve long term global climate simulations by resolving and enhancing the representation of the processes involved in the cycling of freshwater through estuaries and coastal regions. This was a collaborative multi-institution project consisting of physical oceanographers, climate model developers, and computational scientists. It specifically targeted the DOE objectives of advancing simulation and predictive capability of climate models through improvements in resolution and physical process representation. The main computational objectives were: 1. To develop computationally efficient, but physically based, parameterizations of estuary and continental shelf mixing processes for use in an Earth System Model (CESM). 2. To develop a two-way nested regional modeling framework in order to dynamically downscale the climate response of particular coastal ocean regions and to upscale the impact of the regional coastal processes to the global climate in an Earth System Model (CESM). 3. To develop computational infrastructure to enhance the efficiency of data transfer between specific sources and destinations, i.e., a point-to-point communication capability, (used in objective 1) within POP, the ocean component of CESM.

  3. ENES the European Network for Earth System modelling and its infrastructure projects IS-ENES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guglielmo, Francesca; Joussaume, Sylvie; Parinet, Marie

    2016-04-01

    The scientific community working on climate modelling is organized within the European Network for Earth System modelling (ENES). In the past decade, several European university departments, research centres, meteorological services, computer centres, and industrial partners engaged in the creation of ENES with the purpose of working together and cooperating towards the further development of the network, by signing a Memorandum of Understanding. As of 2015, the consortium counts 47 partners. The climate modelling community, and thus ENES, faces challenges which are both science-driven, i.e. analysing of the full complexity of the Earth System to improve our understanding and prediction of climate changes, and have multi-faceted societal implications, as a better representation of climate change on regional scales leads to improved understanding and prediction of impacts and to the development and provision of climate services. ENES, promoting and endorsing projects and initiatives, helps in developing and evaluating of state-of-the-art climate and Earth system models, facilitates model inter-comparison studies, encourages exchanges of software and model results, and fosters the use of high performance computing facilities dedicated to high-resolution multi-model experiments. ENES brings together public and private partners, integrates countries underrepresented in climate modelling studies, and reaches out to different user communities, thus enhancing European expertise and competitiveness. In this need of sophisticated models, world-class, high-performance computers, and state-of-the-art software solutions to make efficient use of models, data and hardware, a key role is played by the constitution and maintenance of a solid infrastructure, developing and providing services to the different user communities. ENES has investigated the infrastructural needs and has received funding from the EU FP7 program for the IS-ENES (InfraStructure for ENES) phase I and II

  4. Quantifying Key Climate Parameter Uncertainties Using an Earth System Model with a Dynamic 3D Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, R.; Sriver, R. L.; Goes, M. P.; Urban, N.; Matthews, D.; Haran, M.; Keller, K.

    2011-12-01

    Climate projections hinge critically on uncertain climate model parameters such as climate sensitivity, vertical ocean diffusivity and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol forcings. Climate sensitivity is defined as the equilibrium global mean temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Vertical ocean diffusivity parameterizes sub-grid scale ocean vertical mixing processes. These parameters are typically estimated using Intermediate Complexity Earth System Models (EMICs) that lack a full 3D representation of the oceans, thereby neglecting the effects of mixing on ocean dynamics and meridional overturning. We improve on these studies by employing an EMIC with a dynamic 3D ocean model to estimate these parameters. We carry out historical climate simulations with the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) varying parameters that affect climate sensitivity, vertical ocean mixing, and effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols. We use a Bayesian approach whereby the likelihood of each parameter combination depends on how well the model simulates surface air temperature and upper ocean heat content. We use a Gaussian process emulator to interpolate the model output to an arbitrary parameter setting. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to estimate the posterior probability distribution function (pdf) of these parameters. We explore the sensitivity of the results to prior assumptions about the parameters. In addition, we estimate the relative skill of different observations to constrain the parameters. We quantify the uncertainty in parameter estimates stemming from climate variability, model and observational errors. We explore the sensitivity of key decision-relevant climate projections to these parameters. We find that climate sensitivity and vertical ocean diffusivity estimates are consistent with previously published results. The climate sensitivity pdf is strongly affected by the prior assumptions, and by the scaling

  5. Atmospheric Constituents in GEOS-5: Components for an Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pawson, Steven; Douglass, Anne; Duncan, Bryan; Nielsen, Eric; Ott, Leslie; Strode, Sarah

    2011-01-01

    The GEOS-S model is being developed for weather and climate processes, including the implementation of "Earth System" components. While the stratospheric chemistry capabilities are mature, we are presently extending this to include predictions of the tropospheric composition and chemistry - this includes CO2, CH4, CO, nitrogen species, etc. (Aerosols are also implemented, but are beyond the scope of this paper.) This work will give an overview of our chemistry modules, the approaches taken to represent surface emissions and uptake of chemical species, and some studies of the sensitivity of the atmospheric circulation to changes in atmospheric composition. Results are obtained through focused experiments and multi-decadal simulations.

  6. PyrE, an interactive fire module within the NASA-GISS Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mezuman, K.; Bauer, S. E.; Tsigaridis, K.

    2017-12-01

    Fires directly affect the composition of the atmosphere and Earth's radiation balance by emitting a suite of reactive gases and particles. Having an interactive fire module in an Earth System Model allows us to study the natural and anthropogenic drivers, feedbacks, and interactions of biomass burning in different time periods. To do so we have developed PyrE, the NASA-GISS interactive fire emissions model. PyrE uses the flammability, ignition, and suppression parameterization proposed by Pechony and Shindell (2009), and is coupled to a burned area and surface recovery parameterization. The burned area calculation follows CLM's approach (Li et al., 2012), paired with an offline recovery scheme based on Ent's Terrestrial Biosphere Model (Ent TBM) carbon pool turnover time. PyrE is driven by environmental variables calculated by climate simulations, population density data, MODIS fire counts and LAI retrievals, as well as GFED4s emissions. Since the model development required extensive use of reference datasets, in addition to comparing it to GFED4s BA, we evaluate it by studying the effect of fires on atmospheric composition and climate. Our results show good agreement globally, with some regional differences. Finally, we quantify the present day fire radiative forcing. The development of PyrE allowed us for the first time to interactively simulate climate and fire activity with GISS-ModelE3

  7. Reduced ENSO Variability at the LGM Revealed by an Isotope-Enabled Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jiang; Liu, Zhengyu; Brady, Esther; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Zhang, Jiaxu; Noone, David; Tomas, Robert; Nusbaumer, Jesse; Wong, Tony; Jahn, Alexandra; hide

    2017-01-01

    Studying the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the past can help us better understand its dynamics and improve its future projections. However, both paleoclimate reconstructions and model simulations of ENSO strength at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ka B.P.) have led to contradicting results. Here we perform model simulations using the recently developed water isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model (iCESM). For the first time, model-simulated oxygen isotopes are directly compared with those from ENSO reconstructions using the individual foraminifera analysis (IFA). We find that the LGM ENSO is most likely weaker comparing with the preindustrial. The iCESM suggests that total variance of the IFA records may only reflect changes in the annual cycle instead of ENSO variability as previously assumed. Furthermore, the interpretation of subsurface IFA records can be substantially complicated by the habitat depth of thermocline-dwelling foraminifera and their vertical migration with a temporally varying thermocline.

  8. Reversibility in an Earth System model in response to CO2 concentration changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucher, O; Halloran, P R; Burke, E J; Doutriaux-Boucher, M; Jones, C D; Lowe, J; Ringer, M A; Robertson, E; Wu, P

    2012-01-01

    We use the HadGEM2-ES Earth System model to examine the degree of reversibility of a wide range of components of the Earth System under idealized climate change scenarios where the atmospheric CO 2 concentration is gradually increased to four times the pre-industrial level and then reduced at a similar rate from several points along this trajectory. While some modelled quantities respond almost immediately to the atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, others exhibit a time lag relative to the change in CO 2 . Most quantities also exhibit a lag relative to the global-mean surface temperature change, which can be described as a hysteresis behaviour. The most surprising responses are from low-level clouds and ocean stratification in the Southern Ocean, which both exhibit hysteresis on timescales longer than expected. We see no evidence of critical thresholds in these simulations, although some of the hysteresis phenomena become more apparent above 2 × CO 2 or 3 × CO 2 . Our findings have implications for the parametrization of climate impacts in integrated assessment and simple climate models and for future climate studies of geoengineering scenarios. (letter)

  9. PanEurasian Experiment (PEEX): Modelling Platform for Earth System Observations and Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baklanov, Alexander; Mahura, Alexander; Penenko, Vladimir; Zilitinkevich, Sergej; Kulmala, Markku

    2014-05-01

    As the part of the PEEX initiative, for the purpose of supporting the PEEX observational system and answering on the PEEX scientific questions, a hierarchy/ framework of modern multi-scale models for different elements of the Earth System integrated with the observation system is needed. One of the acute topics in the international debate on land-atmosphere interactions in relation to global change is the Earth System Modeling (ESM). The question is whether the ESM components actually represent how the Earth is functioning. The ESMs consist of equations describing the processes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, terrestrial and marine biosphere. ESMs are the best tools for analyzing the effect of different environmental changes on future climate or for studying the role of whole processes in the Earth System. These types of analysis and prediction of the future change are especially important in the Arctic latitudes, where climate change is proceeding fastest and where near-surface warming has been about twice the global average during the recent decades. The processes, and hence parameterization, in ESMs are still based on insufficient knowledge of physical, chemical and biological mechanisms involved in the climate system and the resolution of known processes is insufficient. Global scale modeling of land-atmosphere-ocean interactions using ESMs provides a way to explore the influence of spatial and temporal variation in the activities of land system and on climate. There is a lack, however, ways to forward a necessary process understanding effectively to ESMs and to link all this to the decision-making process. Arctic-boreal geographical domain plays significant role in terms of green-house gases and anthropogenic emissions and as an aerosol source area in the Earth System. The PEEX Modelling Platform (PEEX-MP) is characterized by: • An ensemble approach with the integration of modelling results from different models/ countries etc.; • A hierarchy of

  10. A roadmap for improving the representation of photosynthesis in Earth system models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Alistair; Medlyn, Belinda E; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Bonan, Gordon; von Caemmerer, Susanne; Dietze, Michael C; Kattge, Jens; Leakey, Andrew D B; Mercado, Lina M; Niinemets, Ülo; Prentice, I Colin; Serbin, Shawn P; Sitch, Stephen; Way, Danielle A; Zaehle, Sönke

    2017-01-01

    Accurate representation of photosynthesis in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) is essential for robust projections of global change. However, current representations vary markedly between TBMs, contributing uncertainty to projections of global carbon fluxes. Here we compared the representation of photosynthesis in seven TBMs by examining leaf and canopy level responses of photosynthetic CO 2 assimilation (A) to key environmental variables: light, temperature, CO 2 concentration, vapor pressure deficit and soil water content. We identified research areas where limited process knowledge prevents inclusion of physiological phenomena in current TBMs and research areas where data are urgently needed for model parameterization or evaluation. We provide a roadmap for new science needed to improve the representation of photosynthesis in the next generation of terrestrial biosphere and Earth system models. No claim to original US Government works New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

  11. Incorporating Prognostic Marine Nitrogen Fixers and Related Bio-Physical Feedbacks in an Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulsen, H.; Ilyina, T.; Six, K. D.

    2016-02-01

    Marine nitrogen fixers play a fundamental role in the oceanic nitrogen and carbon cycles by providing a major source of `new' nitrogen to the euphotic zone that supports biological carbon export and sequestration. Furthermore, nitrogen fixers may regionally have a direct impact on ocean physics and hence the climate system as they form extensive surface mats which can increase light absorption and surface albedo and reduce the momentum input by wind. Resulting alterations in temperature and stratification may feed back on nitrogen fixers' growth itself.We incorporate nitrogen fixers as a prognostic 3D tracer in the ocean biogeochemical component (HAMOCC) of the Max Planck Institute Earth system model and assess for the first time the impact of related bio-physical feedbacks on biogeochemistry and the climate system.The model successfully reproduces recent estimates of global nitrogen fixation rates, as well as the observed distribution of nitrogen fixers, covering large parts of the tropical and subtropical oceans. First results indicate that including bio-physical feedbacks has considerable effects on the upper ocean physics in this region. Light absorption by nitrogen fixers leads locally to surface heating, subsurface cooling, and mixed layer depth shoaling in the subtropical gyres. As a result, equatorial upwelling is increased, leading to surface cooling at the equator. This signal is damped by the effect of the reduced wind stress due to the presence of cyanobacteria mats, which causes a reduction in the wind-driven circulation, and hence a reduction in equatorial upwelling. The increase in surface albedo due to nitrogen fixers has only inconsiderable effects. The response of nitrogen fixers' growth to the alterations in temperature and stratification varies regionally. Simulations with the fully coupled Earth system model are in progress to assess the implications of the biologically induced changes in upper ocean physics for the global climate system.

  12. The Community Earth System Model-Polar Climate Working Group and the status of CESM2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, D. A.; Holland, M. M.; DuVivier, A. K.

    2017-12-01

    The Polar Climate Working Group (PCWG) is a consortium of scientists who are interested in modeling and understanding the climate in the Arctic and the Antarctic, and how polar climate processes interact with and influence climate at lower latitudes. Our members come from universities and laboratories, and our interests span all elements of polar climate, from the ocean depths to the top of the atmosphere. In addition to conducting scientific modeling experiments, we are charged with contributing to the development and maintenance of the state-of-the-art sea ice model component (CICE) used in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). A recent priority for the PCWG has been to come up with innovative ways to bring the observational and modeling communities together. This will allow for more robust validation of climate model simulations, the development and implementation of more physically-based model parameterizations, improved data assimilation capabilities, and the better use of models to design and implement field experiments. These have been informed by topical workshops and scientific visitors that we have hosted in these areas. These activities will be discussed and information on how the better integration of observations and models has influenced the new version of the CESM, which is due to be released in late 2017, will be provided. Additionally, we will address how enhanced interactions with the observational community will contribute to model developments and validation moving forward.

  13. A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gent, Peter; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Conley, Andrew; Vertenstein, Mariana; Craig, Anthony

    2013-02-13

    The objective of this award was to build a scalable and extensible Earth System Model that can be used to study climate change science. That objective has been achieved with the public release of the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1). In particular, the development of the CESM1 atmospheric chemistry component was substantially funded by this award, as was the development of the significantly improved coupler component. The CESM1 allows new climate change science in areas such as future air quality in very large cities, the effects of recovery of the southern hemisphere ozone hole, and effects of runoff from ice melt in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Results from a whole series of future climate projections using the CESM1 are also freely available via the web from the CMIP5 archive at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Many research papers using these results have now been published, and will form part of the 5th Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is to be published late in 2013.

  14. A Regional Earth System Model of the Northeast Corridor: Analyzing 21st Century Climate and Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorosmarty, C. J.; Duchin, F.; Melillo, J. M.; Wollheim, W. M.; Gonzalez, J.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Rosenzweig, B.; Yang, P.; Lengyel, F.; Fekete, B. M.

    2012-12-01

    The Northeast region (NE) exhibits many of the changes taking place across the Nation's landscapes and watersheds, yet also provides a unique lens through which to assess options for managing large-scale natural resource systems. We report here on a regional NSF-funded Earth System Modeling (EaSM) project, which has assembled an interdisciplinary research team from academia and government with expertise in physics, biogeochemistry, engineering, energy, economics, and policy engagement. The team is simultaneously studying the evolution of regional human-environment systems and seeking to improve the translation of research findings to the planning community. We hypothesize that there are regionally-significant consequences of human decisions on environmental systems of the NE, expressed through the action of both natural and engineered human systems that dictate the region's biogeophysical state, ecosystem services, energy and economic output. Our central goal is: To build a Northeast Regional Earth System Model (NE-RESM) that improves understanding and capacity to forecast the implications of planning decisions on the region's environment, ecosystem services, energy systems and economy through the 21st century. We are using scenario experiments to test our hypothesis and to make forecasts about the future. We see the proposed research as a major step forward in developing a capacity to diagnose and understand the state of large, interacting human-natural systems. Major foci include: the application of meso-scale atmospheric physics models to drive terrestrial-aquatic ecosystem models; a linked ecosystem services accounting tool; geospatial modeling of anthropogenic GHG emissions and biotic source/sinks at improved space/time resolutions; and meso-economic input-output model to evaluate the impacts of ecosystem services constraints on subregional economies. The presentation will report on recent progress across three strategic planning fronts, which are important to

  15. Earth System Models Underestimate Soil Carbon Diagnostic Times in Dry and Cold Regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, W.; Xia, J.; Zhou, X.; Huang, K.; Huang, Y.; Jian, Z.; Jiang, L.; Xu, X.; Liang, J.; Wang, Y. P.; Luo, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Soils contain the largest organic carbon (C) reservoir in the Earth's surface and strongly modulate the terrestrial feedback to climate change. Large uncertainty exists in current Earth system models (ESMs) in simulating soil organic C (SOC) dynamics, calling for a systematic diagnosis on their performance based on observations. Here, we built a global database of SOC diagnostic time (i.e.,turnover times; τsoil) measured at 320 sites with four different approaches. We found that the estimated τsoil was comparable among approaches of 14C dating () (median with 25 and 75 percentiles), 13C shifts due to vegetation change () and the ratio of stock over flux (), but was shortest from laboratory incubation studies (). The state-of-the-art ESMs underestimated the τsoil in most biomes, even by >10 and >5 folds in cold and dry regions, respectively. Moreover,we identified clear negative dependences of τsoil on temperature and precipitation in both of the observational and modeling results. Compared with Community Land Model (version 4), the incorporation of soil vertical profile (CLM4.5) could substantially extend the τsoil of SOC. Our findings suggest the accuracy of climate-C cycle feedback in current ESMs could be enhanced by an improved understanding of SOC dynamics under the limited hydrothermal conditions.

  16. Graphics Processing Units (GPU) and the Goddard Earth Observing System atmospheric model (GEOS-5): Implementation and Potential Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putnam, William M.

    2011-01-01

    Earth system models like the Goddard Earth Observing System model (GEOS-5) have been pushing the limits of large clusters of multi-core microprocessors, producing breath-taking fidelity in resolving cloud systems at a global scale. GPU computing presents an opportunity for improving the efficiency of these leading edge models. A GPU implementation of GEOS-5 will facilitate the use of cloud-system resolving resolutions in data assimilation and weather prediction, at resolutions near 3.5 km, improving our ability to extract detailed information from high-resolution satellite observations and ultimately produce better weather and climate predictions

  17. A new synoptic scale resolving global climate simulation using the Community Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Small, R. Justin; Bacmeister, Julio; Bailey, David; Baker, Allison; Bishop, Stuart; Bryan, Frank; Caron, Julie; Dennis, John; Gent, Peter; Hsu, Hsiao-ming; Jochum, Markus; Lawrence, David; Muñoz, Ernesto; diNezio, Pedro; Scheitlin, Tim; Tomas, Robert; Tribbia, Joseph; Tseng, Yu-heng; Vertenstein, Mariana

    2014-12-01

    High-resolution global climate modeling holds the promise of capturing planetary-scale climate modes and small-scale (regional and sometimes extreme) features simultaneously, including their mutual interaction. This paper discusses a new state-of-the-art high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulation that was performed with these goals in mind. The atmospheric component was at 0.25° grid spacing, and ocean component at 0.1°. One hundred years of "present-day" simulation were completed. Major results were that annual mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific and El-Niño Southern Oscillation variability were well simulated compared to standard resolution models. Tropical and southern Atlantic SST also had much reduced bias compared to previous versions of the model. In addition, the high resolution of the model enabled small-scale features of the climate system to be represented, such as air-sea interaction over ocean frontal zones, mesoscale systems generated by the Rockies, and Tropical Cyclones. Associated single component runs and standard resolution coupled runs are used to help attribute the strengths and weaknesses of the fully coupled run. The high-resolution run employed 23,404 cores, costing 250 thousand processor-hours per simulated year and made about two simulated years per day on the NCAR-Wyoming supercomputer "Yellowstone."

  18. Description and evaluation of the Earth System Regional Climate Model (RegCM-ES)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farneti, Riccardo; Sitz, Lina; Di Sante, Fabio; Fuentes-Franco, Ramon; Coppola, Erika; Mariotti, Laura; Reale, Marco; Sannino, Gianmaria; Barreiro, Marcelo; Nogherotto, Rita; Giuliani, Graziano; Graffino, Giorgio; Solidoro, Cosimo; Giorgi, Filippo

    2017-04-01

    The increasing availability of satellite remote sensing data, of high temporal frequency and spatial resolution, has provided a new and enhanced view of the global ocean and atmosphere, revealing strong air-sea coupling processes throughout the ocean basins. In order to obtain an accurate representation and better understanding of the climate system, its variability and change, the inclusion of all mechanisms of interaction among the different sub-components, at high temporal and spatial resolution, becomes ever more desirable. Recently, global coupled models have been able to progressively refine their horizontal resolution to attempt to resolve smaller-scale processes. However, regional coupled ocean-atmosphere models can achieve even finer resolutions and provide additional information on the mechanisms of air-sea interactions and feedbacks. Here we describe a new, state-of-the-art, Earth System Regional Climate Model (RegCM-ES). RegCM-ES presently includes the coupling between atmosphere, ocean, land surface and sea-ice components, as well as an hydrological and ocean biogeochemistry model. The regional coupled model has been implemented and tested over some of the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domains. RegCM-ES has shown improvements in the representation of precipitation and SST fields over the tested domains, as well as realistic representations of coupled air-sea processes and interactions. The RegCM-ES model, which can be easily implemented over any regional domain of interest, is open source making it suitable for usage by the large scientific community.

  19. Earth Without Life: A Systems Model of a Global Abiotic Nitrogen Cycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laneuville, Matthieu; Kameya, Masafumi; Cleaves, H James

    2018-03-20

    Nitrogen is the major component of Earth's atmosphere and plays important roles in biochemistry. Biological systems have evolved a variety of mechanisms for fixing and recycling environmental nitrogen sources, which links them tightly with terrestrial nitrogen reservoirs. However, prior to the emergence of biology, all nitrogen cycling was abiological, and this cycling may have set the stage for the origin of life. It is of interest to understand how nitrogen cycling would proceed on terrestrial planets with comparable geodynamic activity to Earth, but on which life does not arise. We constructed a kinetic mass-flux model of nitrogen cycling in its various major chemical forms (e.g., N 2 , reduced (NH x ) and oxidized (NO x ) species) between major planetary reservoirs (the atmosphere, oceans, crust, and mantle) and included inputs from space. The total amount of nitrogen species that can be accommodated in each reservoir, and the ways in which fluxes and reservoir sizes may have changed over time in the absence of biology, are explored. Given a partition of volcanism between arc and hotspot types similar to the modern ones, our global nitrogen cycling model predicts a significant increase in oceanic nitrogen content over time, mostly as NH x , while atmospheric N 2 content could be lower than today. The transport timescales between reservoirs are fast compared to the evolution of the environment; thus atmospheric composition is tightly linked to surface and interior processes. Key Words: Nitrogen cycle-Abiotic-Planetology-Astrobiology. Astrobiology 18, xxx-xxx.

  20. Climate Model Evaluation using New Datasets from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loeb, Norman G.; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Doelling, David R.

    2008-01-01

    There are some in the science community who believe that the response of the climate system to anthropogenic radiative forcing is unpredictable and we should therefore call off the quest . The key limitation in climate predictability is associated with cloud feedback. Narrowing the uncertainty in cloud feedback (and therefore climate sensitivity) requires optimal use of the best available observations to evaluate and improve climate model processes and constrain climate model simulations over longer time scales. The Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) is a satellite-based program that provides global cloud, aerosol and radiative flux observations for improving our understanding of cloud-aerosol-radiation feedbacks in the Earth s climate system. CERES is the successor to the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE), which has widely been used to evaluate climate models both at short time scales (e.g., process studies) and at decadal time scales. A CERES instrument flew on the TRMM satellite and captured the dramatic 1998 El Nino, and four other CERES instruments are currently flying aboard the Terra and Aqua platforms. Plans are underway to fly the remaining copy of CERES on the upcoming NPP spacecraft (mid-2010 launch date). Every aspect of CERES represents a significant improvement over ERBE. While both CERES and ERBE measure broadband radiation, CERES calibration is a factor of 2 better than ERBE. In order to improve the characterization of clouds and aerosols within a CERES footprint, we use coincident higher-resolution imager observations (VIRS, MODIS or VIIRS) to provide a consistent cloud-aerosol-radiation dataset at climate accuracy. Improved radiative fluxes are obtained by using new CERES-derived Angular Distribution Models (ADMs) for converting measured radiances to fluxes. CERES radiative fluxes are a factor of 2 more accurate than ERBE overall, but the improvement by cloud type and at high latitudes can be as high as a factor of 5

  1. Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, P. E.; Calvin, K. V.; Jones, A. D.; Di Vittorio, A. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Chini, L. P.; Shi, X.; Mao, J.; Collins, W. D.; Edmonds, J.; Hurtt, G. C.

    2017-12-01

    Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical datasets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories. In this work we show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drives significant feedbacks in energy, agriculture, land-use, and carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. We find that exposure of human appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario. Land ecosystem response to increased carbon dioxide concentration, increased anthropogenic nitrogen deposition, and changes in temperature and precipitation all play a role. The feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system demonstrated in this work are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy economic models to ESMs used to date.

  2. Towards Better Simulation of US Maize Yield Responses to Climate in the Community Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, B.; Guan, K.; Chen, M.; Lawrence, D. M.; Jin, Z.; Bernacchi, C.; Ainsworth, E. A.; DeLucia, E. H.; Lombardozzi, D. L.; Lu, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Global food security is undergoing continuing pressure from increased population and climate change despites the potential advancement in breeding and management technologies. Earth system models (ESMs) are essential tools to study the impacts of historical and future climate on regional and global food production, as well as to assess the effectiveness of possible adaptations and their potential feedback to climate. Here we developed an improved maize representation within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) by combining the strengths of both the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) and the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) models. Specifically, we modified the maize planting scheme, incorporated the phenology scheme adopted from the APSIM model, added a new carbon allocation scheme into CLM4.5, and improved the estimation of canopy structure parameters including leaf area index (LAI) and canopy height. Unique features of the new model (CLM-APSIM) include more detailed phenology stages, an explicit implementation of the impacts of various abiotic environmental stresses (including nitrogen, water, temperature and heat stresses) on maize phenology and carbon allocation, as well as an explicit simulation of grain number and grain size. We conducted a regional simulation of this new model over the US Corn Belt during 1990 to 2010. The simulated maize yield as well as its responses to climate (growing season mean temperature and precipitation) are benchmarked with data from UADA NASS statistics. Our results show that the CLM-APSIM model outperforms the CLM4.5 in simulating county-level maize yield production and reproduces more realistic yield responses to climate variations than CLM4.5. However, some critical processes (such as crop failure due to frost and inundation and suboptimal growth condition due to biotic stresses) are still missing in both CLM-APSIM and CLM4.5, making the simulated yield responses to climate slightly deviate from the

  3. LGM permafrost thickness and extent in the Northern Hemisphere derived from the earth system model iLOVECLIM

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kitover, D.C.; van Balen, R.T.; Vandenberghe, J.F.; Roche, D.M.V.A.P.; Renssen, H.

    2016-01-01

    An estimate of permafrost extent and thickness in the northern hemisphere during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~ 21 ka) has been produced using the VU University Amsterdam Permafrost Snow (VAMPERS) model, forced by iLOVECLIM, an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. We present model

  4. Earth's Systems as Models of Ethical Behavior: The Basis for an Ethic of Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutz, T. M.

    2014-12-01

    The enormous advances in scientific understanding of the earth in the last 400 years led to a remarkable flourishing of humanity, but it also resulted in the disruption of critical systems on which we depend. Around the world, soil is lost faster than it forms; groundwater is withdrawn faster than it recharges; biodiversity and biocapacity are crashing; fossil fuels are 87% of our primary energy sources despite their many problems, including steadily rising emissions of CO2. Since 1600, science has honed an ethic of objectivity that insists that facts and values - scientific work and its real world outcomes - remain separate. As a result, our economy and society applaud as loudly when our graduates land jobs that further damage earth systems as when they seek to preserve them. Geoethics aims at the idea that balancing human action with the capacity of planetary systems is the primary "good." Without healthy systems, we cannot thrive. Period. Ethical systems developed to mediate human relations are inadequate to find this balance: they implicitly acknowledge a rationality that places the highest value on short-term growth and efficiency, not on living sustainably in the long run. The best paragon of sustainability is the co-evolution of life and other systems on our planet over 3.5 billion years. This presentation explores the contributions of Gregory Bateson and other scientists to understanding systems in cybernetic terms. Bateson suggested that "What we believe ourselves to be should be compatible with what we believe of the world around us." In other words, the path to a sustainable geoethics begins by re-internalizing lessons that humans alone in the biotic community seem to have forgotten. What are the "rules" by which systems sustain themselves? What do self-sustaining systems "value?" How can we help ourselves and our students learn them? I suggest that paying attention to the process of learning itself is an effective first step, and describe the use of a

  5. A Global Data Analysis for Representing Sediment and Particulate Organic Carbon Yield in Earth System Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Zeli; Leung, L. Ruby; Li, Hongyi; Tesfa, Teklu; Vanmaercke, Matthias; Poesen, Jean; Zhang, Xuesong; Lu, Hui; Hartmann, Jens

    2017-12-01

    Although sediment yield (SY) from water erosion is ubiquitous and its environmental consequences are well recognized, its impacts on the global carbon cycle remain largely uncertain. This knowledge gap is partly due to the lack of soil erosion modeling in Earth System Models (ESMs), which are important tools used to understand the global carbon cycle and explore its changes. This study analyzed sediment and particulate organic carbon yield (CY) data from 1,081 and 38 small catchments (0.1-200 km2), respectively, in different environments across the globe. Using multiple statistical analysis techniques, we explored environmental factors and hydrological processes important for SY and CY modeling in ESMs. Our results show clear correlations of high SY with traditional agriculture, seismicity and heavy storms, as well as strong correlations between SY and annual peak runoff. These highlight the potential limitation of SY models that represent only interrill and rill erosion because shallow overland flow and rill flow have limited transport capacity due to their hydraulic geometry to produce high SY. Further, our results suggest that SY modeling in ESMs should be implemented at the event scale to produce the catastrophic mass transport during episodic events. Several environmental factors such as seismicity and land management that are often not considered in current catchment-scale SY models can be important in controlling global SY. Our analyses show that SY is likely the primary control on CY in small catchments and a statistically significant empirical relationship is established to calculate SY and CY jointly in ESMs.

  6. Intercomparison of terrestrial carbon fluxes and carbon use efficiency simulated by CMIP5 Earth System Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Dongmin; Lee, Myong-In; Jeong, Su-Jong; Im, Jungho; Cha, Dong Hyun; Lee, Sanggyun

    2017-12-01

    This study compares historical simulations of the terrestrial carbon cycle produced by 10 Earth System Models (ESMs) that participated in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Using MODIS satellite estimates, this study validates the simulation of gross primary production (GPP), net primary production (NPP), and carbon use efficiency (CUE), which depend on plant function types (PFTs). The models show noticeable deficiencies compared to the MODIS data in the simulation of the spatial patterns of GPP and NPP and large differences among the simulations, although the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean provides a realistic global mean value and spatial distributions. The larger model spreads in GPP and NPP compared to those of surface temperature and precipitation suggest that the differences among simulations in terms of the terrestrial carbon cycle are largely due to uncertainties in the parameterization of terrestrial carbon fluxes by vegetation. The models also exhibit large spatial differences in their simulated CUE values and at locations where the dominant PFT changes, primarily due to differences in the parameterizations. While the MME-simulated CUE values show a strong dependence on surface temperatures, the observed CUE values from MODIS show greater complexity, as well as non-linear sensitivity. This leads to the overall underestimation of CUE using most of the PFTs incorporated into current ESMs. The results of this comparison suggest that more careful and extensive validation is needed to improve the terrestrial carbon cycle in terms of ecosystem-level processes.

  7. A Global Data Analysis for Representing Sediment and Particulate Organic Carbon Yield in Earth System Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tan, Zeli [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Leung, L. Ruby [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Li, Hongyi [Montana State University, Bozeman MT USA; Tesfa, Teklu [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Vanmaercke, Matthias [Département de Géographie, Université de Liège, Liege Belgium; Poesen, Jean [Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Division of Geography, KU Leuven, Leuven Belgium; Zhang, Xuesong [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Lu, Hui [Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Hartmann, Jens [Institute for Geology, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg Germany

    2017-12-01

    Although sediment yield (SY) from water erosion is ubiquitous and its environmental consequences are well recognized, its impacts on the global carbon cycle remain largely uncertain. This knowledge gap is partly due to the lack of soil erosion modeling in Earth System Models (ESMs), which are important tools used to understand the global carbon cycle and explore its changes. This study analyzed sediment and particulate organic carbon yield (CY) data from 1081 and 38 small catchments (0.1-200 km27 ), respectively, in different environments across the globe. Using multiple statistical analysis techniques, we explored environmental factors and hydrological processes important for SY and CY modeling in ESMs. Our results show clear correlations of high SY with traditional agriculture, seismicity and heavy storms, as well as strong correlations between SY and annual peak runoff. These highlight the potential limitation of SY models that represent only interrill and rill erosion because shallow overland flow and rill flow have limited transport capacity due to their hydraulic geometry to produce high SY. Further, our results suggest that SY modeling in ESMs should be implemented at the event scale to produce the catastrophic mass transport during episodic events. Several environmental factors such as seismicity and land management that are often not considered in current catchment-scale SY models can be important in controlling global SY. Our analyses show that SY is likely the primary control on CY in small catchments and a statistically significant empirical relationship is established to calculate SY and CY jointly in ESMs.

  8. Ocean Chlorophyll as a Precursor of ENSO: An Earth System Modeling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jong-Yeon; Dunne, John P.; Stock, Charles A.

    2018-02-01

    Ocean chlorophyll concentration, a proxy for phytoplankton, is strongly influenced by internal ocean dynamics such as those associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Observations show that ocean chlorophyll responses to ENSO generally lead sea surface temperature (SST) responses in the equatorial Pacific. A long-term global Earth system model simulation incorporating marine biogeochemical processes also exhibits a preceding chlorophyll response. In contrast to simulated SST anomalies, which significantly lag the wind-driven subsurface heat response to ENSO, chlorophyll anomalies respond rapidly. Iron was found to be the key factor connecting the simulated surface chlorophyll anomalies to the subsurface ocean response. Westerly wind bursts decrease central Pacific chlorophyll by reducing iron supply through wind-driven thermocline deepening but increase western Pacific chlorophyll by enhancing the influx of coastal iron from the maritime continent. Our results mechanistically support the potential for chlorophyll-based indices to inform seasonal ENSO forecasts beyond previously identified SST-based indices.

  9. Smarter Earth Science Data System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    The explosive growth in Earth observational data in the recent decade demands a better method of interoperability across heterogeneous systems. The Earth science data system community has mastered the art in storing large volume of observational data, but it is still unclear how this traditional method scale over time as we are entering the age of Big Data. Indexed search solutions such as Apache Solr (Smiley and Pugh, 2011) provides fast, scalable search via keyword or phases without any reasoning or inference. The modern search solutions such as Googles Knowledge Graph (Singhal, 2012) and Microsoft Bing, all utilize semantic reasoning to improve its accuracy in searches. The Earth science user community is demanding for an intelligent solution to help them finding the right data for their researches. The Ontological System for Context Artifacts and Resources (OSCAR) (Huang et al., 2012), was created in response to the DARPA Adaptive Vehicle Make (AVM) programs need for an intelligent context models management system to empower its terrain simulation subsystem. The core component of OSCAR is the Environmental Context Ontology (ECO) is built using the Semantic Web for Earth and Environmental Terminology (SWEET) (Raskin and Pan, 2005). This paper presents the current data archival methodology within a NASA Earth science data centers and discuss using semantic web to improve the way we capture and serve data to our users.

  10. State-Dependence of the Climate Sensitivity in Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfister, Patrik L.; Stocker, Thomas F.

    2017-10-01

    Growing evidence from general circulation models (GCMs) indicates that the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) depends on the magnitude of forcing, which is commonly referred to as state-dependence. We present a comprehensive assessment of ECS state-dependence in Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) by analyzing millennial simulations with sustained 2×CO2 and 4×CO2 forcings. We compare different extrapolation methods and show that ECS is smaller in the higher-forcing scenario in 12 out of 15 EMICs, in contrast to the opposite behavior reported from GCMs. In one such EMIC, the Bern3D-LPX model, this state-dependence is mainly due to the weakening sea ice-albedo feedback in the Southern Ocean, which depends on model configuration. Due to ocean-mixing adjustments, state-dependence is only detected hundreds of years after the abrupt forcing, highlighting the need for long model integrations. Adjustments to feedback parametrizations of EMICs may be necessary if GCM intercomparisons confirm an opposite state-dependence.

  11. Penetrating Shortwave Radiation and Sea Ice Algae feedbacks using the Community Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arntsen, A. E.; Perovich, D. K.; Bailey, D. A.; Holland, M. M.

    2017-12-01

    Transmittance of solar radiation through the sea ice cover determines energy transfer to the upper ocean in the form of heat as well as photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) available for the growth of under ice phytoplankton and bottom ice algal communities. A thinning ice cover, increased pond coverage, and earlier melt onset has increased light availability to the upper ocean in contemporary Arctic ice-covered waters. To investigate seasonal and spatial variability of solar shortwave irradiance penetrating the ice cover in the Beaufort and Chukchi Sea regions, we use the fully coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM) in conjunction with a multistream radiative transfer model constrained and initiated by in situ observations. Results inform the importance of light attenuation by ice-based algal pigments within large scale global climate models. We demonstrate the presence of bio-optical feedbacks related to a younger ice cover and examine how these relationships are impacting the trajectory of under ice blooms and the energy budget of the ice-ocean system.

  12. The use and misuse of V(c,max) in Earth System Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Alistair

    2014-02-01

    Earth System Models (ESMs) aim to project global change. Central to this aim is the need to accurately model global carbon fluxes. Photosynthetic carbon dioxide assimilation by the terrestrial biosphere is the largest of these fluxes, and in many ESMs is represented by the Farquhar, von Caemmerer and Berry (FvCB) model of photosynthesis. The maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco, commonly termed V c,max, is a key parameter in the FvCB model. This study investigated the derivation of the values of V c,max used to represent different plant functional types (PFTs) in ESMs. Four methods for estimating V c,max were identified; (1) an empirical or (2) mechanistic relationship was used to relate V c,max to leaf N content, (3) V c,max was estimated using an approach based on the optimization of photosynthesis and respiration or (4) calibration of a user-defined V c,max to obtain a target model output. Despite representing the same PFTs, the land model components of ESMs were parameterized with a wide range of values for V c,max (-46 to +77% of the PFT mean). In many cases, parameterization was based on limited data sets and poorly defined coefficients that were used to adjust model parameters and set PFT-specific values for V c,max. Examination of the models that linked leaf N mechanistically to V c,max identified potential changes to fixed parameters that collectively would decrease V c,max by 31% in C3 plants and 11% in C4 plants. Plant trait data bases are now available that offer an excellent opportunity for models to update PFT-specific parameters used to estimate V c,max. However, data for parameterizing some PFTs, particularly those in the Tropics and the Arctic are either highly variable or largely absent.

  13. Effects of snow grain shape on climate simulations: sensitivity tests with the Norwegian Earth System Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Räisänen

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Snow consists of non-spherical grains of various shapes and sizes. Still, in radiative transfer calculations, snow grains are often treated as spherical. This also applies to the computation of snow albedo in the Snow, Ice, and Aerosol Radiation (SNICAR model and in the Los Alamos sea ice model, version 4 (CICE4, both of which are employed in the Community Earth System Model and in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM. In this study, we evaluate the effect of snow grain shape on climate simulated by NorESM in a slab ocean configuration of the model. An experiment with spherical snow grains (SPH is compared with another (NONSPH in which the snow shortwave single-scattering properties are based on a combination of three non-spherical snow grain shapes optimized using measurements of angular scattering by blowing snow. The key difference between these treatments is that the asymmetry parameter is smaller in the non-spherical case (0.77–0.78 in the visible region than in the spherical case ( ≈  0.89. Therefore, for the same effective snow grain size (or equivalently, the same specific projected area, the snow broadband albedo is higher when assuming non-spherical rather than spherical snow grains, typically by 0.02–0.03. Considering the spherical case as the baseline, this results in an instantaneous negative change in net shortwave radiation with a global-mean top-of-the-model value of ca. −0.22 W m−2. Although this global-mean radiative effect is rather modest, the impacts on the climate simulated by NorESM are substantial. The global annual-mean 2 m air temperature in NONSPH is 1.17 K lower than in SPH, with substantially larger differences at high latitudes. The climatic response is amplified by strong snow and sea ice feedbacks. It is further demonstrated that the effect of snow grain shape could be largely offset by adjusting the snow grain size. When assuming non-spherical snow grains with the parameterized grain

  14. Effects of snow grain shape on climate simulations: sensitivity tests with the Norwegian Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Räisänen, Petri; Makkonen, Risto; Kirkevåg, Alf; Debernard, Jens B.

    2017-12-01

    Snow consists of non-spherical grains of various shapes and sizes. Still, in radiative transfer calculations, snow grains are often treated as spherical. This also applies to the computation of snow albedo in the Snow, Ice, and Aerosol Radiation (SNICAR) model and in the Los Alamos sea ice model, version 4 (CICE4), both of which are employed in the Community Earth System Model and in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). In this study, we evaluate the effect of snow grain shape on climate simulated by NorESM in a slab ocean configuration of the model. An experiment with spherical snow grains (SPH) is compared with another (NONSPH) in which the snow shortwave single-scattering properties are based on a combination of three non-spherical snow grain shapes optimized using measurements of angular scattering by blowing snow. The key difference between these treatments is that the asymmetry parameter is smaller in the non-spherical case (0.77-0.78 in the visible region) than in the spherical case ( ≈ 0.89). Therefore, for the same effective snow grain size (or equivalently, the same specific projected area), the snow broadband albedo is higher when assuming non-spherical rather than spherical snow grains, typically by 0.02-0.03. Considering the spherical case as the baseline, this results in an instantaneous negative change in net shortwave radiation with a global-mean top-of-the-model value of ca. -0.22 W m-2. Although this global-mean radiative effect is rather modest, the impacts on the climate simulated by NorESM are substantial. The global annual-mean 2 m air temperature in NONSPH is 1.17 K lower than in SPH, with substantially larger differences at high latitudes. The climatic response is amplified by strong snow and sea ice feedbacks. It is further demonstrated that the effect of snow grain shape could be largely offset by adjusting the snow grain size. When assuming non-spherical snow grains with the parameterized grain size increased by ca. 70 %, the

  15. What Makes Earth and Space Science Sexy? A Model for Developing Systemic Change in Earth and Space Systems Science Curriculum and Instruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slutskin, R. L.

    2001-12-01

    Earth and Space Science may be the neglected child in the family of high school sciences. In this session, we examine the strategies that Anne Arundel County Public Schools and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center used to develop a dynamic and highly engaging program which follows the vision of the National Science Education Standards, is grounded in key concepts of NASA's Earth Science Directorate, and allows students to examine and apply the current research of NASA scientists. Find out why Earth/Space Systems Science seems to have usurped biology and has made students, principals, and teachers clamor for similar instructional practices in what is traditionally thought of as the "glamorous" course.

  16. Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Jones, Andrew D.; Di Vittorio, Alan; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Chini, Louise M.; Shi, Xiaoying; Mao, Jiafu; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.; Thomson, Allison M.; Truesdale, John E.; Craig, Anthony P.; Branstetter, M.; Hurtt, George C.

    2017-06-12

    Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the first and second largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, which is itself the largest driver of present-day climate change1. Projections of fossil fuel consumption and land-use change are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESM) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing2,3. While empirical datasets are available to inform historical analyses4,5, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use based on energy economic models, constrained using historical and present-day data and forced with assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories6. Here we show that the influence of biospheric change – the integrated effect of climatic, ecological, and geochemical processes – on land ecosystems has a significant impact on energy, agriculture, and land-use projections for the 21st century. Such feedbacks have been ignored in previous ESM studies of future climate. We find that synchronous exposure of land ecosystem productivity in the economic system to biospheric change as it develops in an ESM results in a 10% reduction of land area used for crop cultivation; increased managed forest area and land carbon; a 15-20% decrease in global crop price; and a 17% reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario7. These simulation results demonstrate that biospheric change can significantly alter primary human system forcings to the climate system. This synchronous two-way coupling approach removes inconsistencies in description of climate change between human and biosphere components of the coupled model, mitigating a major source of uncertainty identified in assessments of future climate projections8-10.

  17. Integrated earth system dynamic modeling for life cycle impact assessment of ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbault, Damien; Rivière, Mylène; Rugani, Benedetto; Benetto, Enrico; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia

    2014-02-15

    Despite the increasing awareness of our dependence on Ecosystem Services (ES), Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) does not explicitly and fully assess the damages caused by human activities on ES generation. Recent improvements in LCIA focus on specific cause-effect chains, mainly related to land use changes, leading to Characterization Factors (CFs) at the midpoint assessment level. However, despite the complexity and temporal dynamics of ES, current LCIA approaches consider the environmental mechanisms underneath ES to be independent from each other and devoid of dynamic character, leading to constant CFs whose representativeness is debatable. This paper takes a step forward and is aimed at demonstrating the feasibility of using an integrated earth system dynamic modeling perspective to retrieve time- and scenario-dependent CFs that consider the complex interlinkages between natural processes delivering ES. The GUMBO (Global Unified Metamodel of the Biosphere) model is used to quantify changes in ES production in physical terms - leading to midpoint CFs - and changes in human welfare indicators, which are considered here as endpoint CFs. The interpretation of the obtained results highlights the key methodological challenges to be solved to consider this approach as a robust alternative to the mainstream rationale currently adopted in LCIA. Further research should focus on increasing the granularity of environmental interventions in the modeling tools to match current standards in LCA and on adapting the conceptual approach to a spatially-explicit integrated model. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Impact of chlorophyll bias on the tropical Pacific mean climate in an earth system model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Hyung-Gyu; Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong

    2017-12-01

    Climate modeling groups nowadays develop earth system models (ESMs) by incorporating biogeochemical processes in their climate models. The ESMs, however, often show substantial bias in simulated marine biogeochemistry which can potentially introduce an undesirable bias in physical ocean fields through biogeophysical interactions. This study examines how and how much the chlorophyll bias in a state-of-the-art ESM affects the mean and seasonal cycle of tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST). The ESM used in the present study shows a sizeable positive bias in the simulated tropical chlorophyll. We found that the correction of the chlorophyll bias can reduce the ESM's intrinsic cold SST mean bias in the equatorial Pacific. The biologically-induced cold SST bias is strongly affected by seasonally-dependent air-sea coupling strength. In addition, the correction of chlorophyll bias can improve the annual cycle of SST by up to 25%. This result suggests a possible modeling approach in understanding the two-way interactions between physical and chlorophyll biases by biogeophysical effects.

  19. An enhanced model of land water and energy for global hydrologic and earth-system studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milly, Paul C.D.; Malyshev, Sergey L.; Shevliakova, Elena; Dunne, Krista A.; Findell, Kirsten L.; Gleeson, Tom; Liang, Zhi; Phillips, Peter; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Swenson, Sean

    2014-01-01

    LM3 is a new model of terrestrial water, energy, and carbon, intended for use in global hydrologic analyses and as a component of earth-system and physical-climate models. It is designed to improve upon the performance and to extend the scope of the predecessor Land Dynamics (LaD) and LM3V models by better quantifying the physical controls of climate and biogeochemistry and by relating more directly to components of the global water system that touch human concerns. LM3 includes multilayer representations of temperature, liquid water content, and ice content of both snowpack and macroporous soil–bedrock; topography-based description of saturated area and groundwater discharge; and transport of runoff to the ocean via a global river and lake network. Sensible heat transport by water mass is accounted throughout for a complete energy balance. Carbon and vegetation dynamics and biophysics are represented as in LM3V. In numerical experiments, LM3 avoids some of the limitations of the LaD model and provides qualitatively (though not always quantitatively) reasonable estimates, from a global perspective, of observed spatial and/or temporal variations of vegetation density, albedo, streamflow, water-table depth, permafrost, and lake levels. Amplitude and phase of annual cycle of total water storage are simulated well. Realism of modeled lake levels varies widely. The water table tends to be consistently too shallow in humid regions. Biophysical properties have an artificial stepwise spatial structure, and equilibrium vegetation is sensitive to initial conditions. Explicit resolution of thick (>100 m) unsaturated zones and permafrost is possible, but only at the cost of long (≫300 yr) model spinup times.

  20. Research priorities in land use and land-cover change for the Earth System and Integrated Assessment Modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hibbard, K.; Janetos, A.; Vuuren, van D.; Pongratz, J.; Rose, S.; Betts, R.; Herold, M.; Feddema, J.

    2010-01-01

    This special issue has highlighted recent and innovative methods and results that integrate observations and modelling analyses of regional to global aspect of biophysical and biogeochemical interactions of land-cover change with the climate system. Both the Earth System and the Integrated

  1. Presentation, calibration and validation of the low-order, DCESS Earth System Model (Version 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. O. Pepke Pedersen

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available A new, low-order Earth System Model is described, calibrated and tested against Earth system data. The model features modules for the atmosphere, ocean, ocean sediment, land biosphere and lithosphere and has been designed to simulate global change on time scales of years to millions of years. The atmosphere module considers radiation balance, meridional transport of heat and water vapor between low-mid latitude and high latitude zones, heat and gas exchange with the ocean and sea ice and snow cover. Gases considered are carbon dioxide and methane for all three carbon isotopes, nitrous oxide and oxygen. The ocean module has 100 m vertical resolution, carbonate chemistry and prescribed circulation and mixing. Ocean biogeochemical tracers are phosphate, dissolved oxygen, dissolved inorganic carbon for all three carbon isotopes and alkalinity. Biogenic production of particulate organic matter in the ocean surface layer depends on phosphate availability but with lower efficiency in the high latitude zone, as determined by model fit to ocean data. The calcite to organic carbon rain ratio depends on surface layer temperature. The semi-analytical, ocean sediment module considers calcium carbonate dissolution and oxic and anoxic organic matter remineralisation. The sediment is composed of calcite, non-calcite mineral and reactive organic matter. Sediment porosity profiles are related to sediment composition and a bioturbated layer of 0.1 m thickness is assumed. A sediment segment is ascribed to each ocean layer and segment area stems from observed ocean depth distributions. Sediment burial is calculated from sedimentation velocities at the base of the bioturbated layer. Bioturbation rates and oxic and anoxic remineralisation rates depend on organic carbon rain rates and dissolved oxygen concentrations. The land biosphere module considers leaves, wood, litter and soil. Net primary production depends on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and

  2. Exploring the isopycnal mixing and helium-heat paradoxes in a suite of Earth system models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gnanadesikan, A.; Pradal, M.-A.; Abernathey, R.

    2015-07-01

    This paper uses a suite of Earth system models which simulate the distribution of He isotopes and radiocarbon to examine two paradoxes in Earth science, each of which results from an inconsistency between theoretically motivated global energy balances and direct observations. The helium-heat paradox refers to the fact that helium emissions to the deep ocean are far lower than would be expected given the rate of geothermal heating, since both are thought to be the result of radioactive decay in Earth's interior. The isopycnal mixing paradox comes from the fact that many theoretical parameterizations of the isopycnal mixing coefficient ARedi that link it to baroclinic instability project it to be small (of order a few hundred m2 s-1) in the ocean interior away from boundary currents. However, direct observations using tracers and floats (largely in the upper ocean) suggest that values of this coefficient are an order of magnitude higher. Helium isotopes equilibrate rapidly with the atmosphere and thus exhibit large gradients along isopycnals while radiocarbon equilibrates slowly and thus exhibits smaller gradients along isopycnals. Thus it might be thought that resolving the isopycnal mixing paradox in favor of the higher observational estimates of ARedi might also solve the helium paradox, by increasing the transport of mantle helium to the surface more than it would radiocarbon. In this paper we show that this is not the case. In a suite of models with different spatially constant and spatially varying values of ARedi the distribution of radiocarbon and helium isotopes is sensitive to the value of ARedi. However, away from strong helium sources in the southeastern Pacific, the relationship between the two is not sensitive, indicating that large-scale advection is the limiting process for removing helium and radiocarbon from the deep ocean. The helium isotopes, in turn, suggest a higher value of ARedi below the thermocline than is seen in theoretical

  3. Evaluating Regional Scale Deforestation in the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longobardi, P.; Montenegro, A.; Beltrami, H.; Eby, M.

    2011-12-01

    Forests play a key role in influencing the Earths climate and at the same time are affected by changing climates. At this point it is estimated that 15-30% of Earths natural forests have already been converted to pasture or cropland. With such large amounts of forest being converted to cropland and grassland, it is important to determine the climatic effects of these actions. To date, most modelling efforts towards understanding the climatic effects of deforestation have simulated global deforestation or have been based on experiments where trees were removed from large areas, i.e. the entire Amazon or all forests above 50 N. Here we use the University of Victoria Earth System Climate model which contains a fully coupled carbon cycle, to evaluate the response to deforestation of 10%, 25%, 50% and 100% of the forested areas in three latitude bands: high (above 50°N), mid (above ± 30°) and low (between ± 30°). All simulations were transient simulations, allowing for changes to atmospheric forcings following the A2 emissions scenario. High latitude deforestation lead to cooling (-.05 °C to -0.45 °C) and increase in soil carbon (0.5 to 3 x 1014 kg) for all fractions of deforestation. Due in part to the increase in soil carbon, there was a decrease in atmospheric CO2 in the 50% (-20 ppm) and 100% (-60 ppm) high-latitude deforestation simulations. Low-latitude deforestation initially produced warming in all scenarios (0.1 to 0.25 °C), although all were colder (-0.05 to -0.1 °C) than the control by the end of the simulation. Atmospheric CO2 increased in all simulations (40 to 80 ppm), as well as soil carbon (2 to 16 x 1013 kg). Mid-latitude deforestation also lead to initial warming (0.01 to 0.1 °C) followed by cooling (-0.01 to -0.1 °C). Mid latitude deforestation also produced an increase in soil carbon (2 to 10 x 1013 kg), and atmospheric CO2 (0 to 25ppm). In all three latitude bands forest dieback was observed. Results range from 7% to 37% for high

  4. Characteristics of the Nordic Seas overflows in a set of Norwegian Earth System Model experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Chuncheng; Ilicak, Mehmet; Bentsen, Mats; Fer, Ilker

    2016-08-01

    Global ocean models with an isopycnic vertical coordinate are advantageous in representing overflows, as they do not suffer from topography-induced spurious numerical mixing commonly seen in geopotential coordinate models. In this paper, we present a quantitative diagnosis of the Nordic Seas overflows in four configurations of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) family that features an isopycnic ocean model. For intercomparison, two coupled ocean-sea ice and two fully coupled (atmosphere-land-ocean-sea ice) experiments are considered. Each pair consists of a (non-eddying) 1° and a (eddy-permitting) 1/4° horizontal resolution ocean model. In all experiments, overflow waters remain dense and descend to the deep basins, entraining ambient water en route. Results from the 1/4° pair show similar behavior in the overflows, whereas the 1° pair show distinct differences, including temperature/salinity properties, volume transport (Q), and large scale features such as the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The volume transport of the overflows and degree of entrainment are underestimated in the 1° experiments, whereas in the 1/4° experiments, there is a two-fold downstream increase in Q, which matches observations well. In contrast to the 1/4° experiments, the coarse 1° experiments do not capture the inclined isopycnals of the overflows or the western boundary current off the Flemish Cap. In all experiments, the pathway of the Iceland-Scotland Overflow Water is misrepresented: a major fraction of the overflow proceeds southward into the West European Basin, instead of turning westward into the Irminger Sea. This discrepancy is attributed to excessive production of Labrador Sea Water in the model. The mean state and variability of the Nordic Seas overflows have significant consequences on the response of the AMOC, hence their correct representations are of vital importance in global ocean and climate modelling.

  5. Understanding why the volume of suboxic waters does not increase over centuries of global warming in an Earth System Model

    OpenAIRE

    A. Gnanadesikan; J. P. Dunne; J. John

    2012-01-01

    Global warming is expected to reduce oxygen solubility and vertical exchange in the ocean, changes which would be expected to result in an increase in the volume of hypoxic waters. A simulation made with a full Earth System model with dynamical atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and biogeochemical cycling (the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Earth System Model 2.1) shows that this holds true if the condition for hypoxia is set relatively high. However, the volume of the most hypoxic (i.e., su...

  6. Interactive Photochemistry in Earth System Models to Assess Uncertainty in Ozone and Greenhouse Gases. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prather, Michael J. [Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States); Hsu, Juno [Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States); Nicolau, Alex [Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States); Veidenbaum, Alex [Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States); Smith, Philip Cameron [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Bergmann, Dan [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2014-11-07

    Atmospheric chemistry controls the abundances and hence climate forcing of important greenhouse gases including N2O, CH4, HFCs, CFCs, and O3. Attributing climate change to human activities requires, at a minimum, accurate models of the chemistry and circulation of the atmosphere that relate emissions to abundances. This DOE-funded research provided realistic, yet computationally optimized and affordable, photochemical modules to the Community Earth System Model (CESM) that augment the CESM capability to explore the uncertainty in future stratospheric-tropospheric ozone, stratospheric circulation, and thus the lifetimes of chemically controlled greenhouse gases from climate simulations. To this end, we have successfully implemented Fast-J (radiation algorithm determining key chemical photolysis rates) and Linoz v3.0 (linearized photochemistry for interactive O3, N2O, NOy and CH4) packages in LLNL-CESM and for the first time demonstrated how change in O2 photolysis rate within its uncertainty range can significantly impact on the stratospheric climate and ozone abundances. From the UCI side, this proposal also helped LLNL develop a CAM-Superfast Chemistry model that was implemented for the IPCC AR5 and contributed chemical-climate simulations to CMIP5.

  7. Risks to coral reefs from ocean carbonate chemistry changes in recent earth system model projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ricke, K L; Caldeira, K; Orr, J C; Schneider, K

    2013-01-01

    Coral reefs are among the most biodiverse ecosystems in the world. Today they are threatened by numerous stressors, including warming ocean waters and coastal pollution. Here we focus on the implications of ocean acidification for the open ocean chemistry surrounding coral reefs, as estimated from earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5). We project risks to reefs in the context of three potential aragonite saturation (Ωa) thresholds. We find that in preindustrial times, 99.9% of reefs adjacent to open ocean in the CMIP5 ensemble were located in regions with Ωa > 3.5. Under a business-as-usual scenario (RCP 8.5), every coral reef considered will be surrounded by water with Ωa 2 emissions abatement, the Ωa threshold for reefs is critical to projecting their fate. Our results indicate that to maintain a majority of reefs surrounded by waters with Ωa > 3.5 to the end of the century, very aggressive reductions in emissions are required. The spread of Ωa projections across models in the CMIP5 ensemble is narrow, justifying a high level of confidence in these results. (letter)

  8. Constraints on High Northern Photosynthesis Increase Using Earth System Models and a Set of Independent Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, A. J.; Brovkin, V.; Myneni, R.; Alexandrov, G.

    2017-12-01

    Plant growth in the northern high latitudes benefits from increasing temperature (radiative effect) and CO2 fertilization as a consequence of rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. This enhanced gross primary production (GPP) is evident in large scale increase in summer time greening over the 36-year record of satellite observations. In this time period also various global ecosystem models simulate a greening trend in terms of increasing leaf area index (LAI). We also found a persistent greening trend analyzing historical simulations of Earth system models (ESM) participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). However, these models span a large range in strength of the LAI trend, expressed as sensitivity to both key environmental factors, temperature and CO2 concentration. There is also a wide spread in magnitude of the associated increase of terrestrial GPP among the ESMs, which contributes to pronounced uncertainties in projections of future climate change. Here we demonstrate that there is a linear relationship across the CMIP5 model ensemble between projected GPP changes and historical LAI sensitivity, which allows using the observed LAI sensitivity as an "emerging constraint" on GPP estimation at future CO2 concentration. This constrained estimate of future GPP is substantially higher than the traditional multi-model mean suggesting that the majority of current ESMs may be significantly underestimating carbon fixation by vegetation in NHL. We provide three independent lines of evidence in analyzing observed and simulated CO2 amplitude as well as atmospheric CO2 inversion products to arrive at the same conclusion.

  9. Scale-dependent performances of CMIP5 earth system models in simulating terrestrial vegetation carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, L.; Luo, Y.; Yan, Y.; Hararuk, O.

    2013-12-01

    Mitigation of global changes will depend on reliable projection for the future situation. As the major tools to predict future climate, Earth System Models (ESMs) used in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report have incorporated carbon cycle components, which account for the important fluxes of carbon between the ocean, atmosphere, and terrestrial biosphere carbon reservoirs; and therefore are expected to provide more detailed and more certain projections. However, ESMs are never perfect; and evaluating the ESMs can help us to identify uncertainties in prediction and give the priorities for model development. In this study, we benchmarked carbon in live vegetation in the terrestrial ecosystems simulated by 19 ESMs models from CMIP5 with an observationally estimated data set of global carbon vegetation pool 'Olson's Major World Ecosystem Complexes Ranked by Carbon in Live Vegetation: An Updated Database Using the GLC2000 Land Cover Product' by Gibbs (2006). Our aim is to evaluate the ability of ESMs to reproduce the global vegetation carbon pool at different scales and what are the possible causes for the bias. We found that the performance CMIP5 ESMs is very scale-dependent. While CESM1-BGC, CESM1-CAM5, CESM1-FASTCHEM and CESM1-WACCM, and NorESM1-M and NorESM1-ME (they share the same model structure) have very similar global sums with the observation data but they usually perform poorly at grid cell and biome scale. In contrast, MIROC-ESM and MIROC-ESM-CHEM simulate the best on at grid cell and biome scale but have larger differences in global sums than others. Our results will help improve CMIP5 ESMs for more reliable prediction.

  10. Evaluating Ice Nucleating Particle Concentrations From Prognostic Dust Minerals in an Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perlwitz, J. P.; Knopf, D. A.; Fridlind, A. M.; Miller, R. L.; Pérez García-Pando, C.; DeMott, P. J.

    2016-12-01

    The effect of aerosol particles on the radiative properties of clouds, the so-called, indirect effect of aerosols, is recognized as one of the largest sources of uncertainty in climate prediction. The distribution of water vapor, precipitation, and ice cloud formation are influenced by the atmospheric ice formation, thereby modulating cloud albedo and thus climate. It is well known that different particle types possess different ice formation propensities with mineral dust being a superior ice nucleating particle (INP) compared to soot particles. Furthermore, some dust mineral types are more proficient INP than others, depending on temperature and relative humidity.In recent work, we have presented an improved dust aerosol module in the NASA GISS Earth System ModelE2 with prognostic mineral composition of the dust aerosols. Thus, there are regional variations in dust composition. We evaluated the predicted mineral fractions of dust aerosols by comparing them to measurements from a compilation of about 60 published literature references. Additionally, the capability of the model to reproduce the elemental composition of the simulated dusthas been tested at Izana Observatory at Tenerife, Canary Islands, which is located off-shore of Africa and where frequent dust events are observed. We have been able to show that the new approach delivers a robust improvement of the predicted mineral fractions and elemental composition of dust.In the current study, we use three-dimensional dust mineral fields and thermodynamic conditions, which are simulated using GISS ModelE, to calculate offline the INP concentrations derived using different ice nucleation parameterizations that are currently discussed. We evaluate the calculated INP concentrations from the different parameterizations by comparing them to INP concentrations from field measurements.

  11. Variability along the Atlantic water pathway in the forced Norwegian Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langehaug, H. R.; Sandø, A. B.; Årthun, M.; Ilıcak, M.

    2018-03-01

    The growing attention on mechanisms that can provide predictability on interannual-to-decadal time scales, makes it necessary to identify how well climate models represent such mechanisms. In this study we use a high (0.25° horizontal grid) and a medium (1°) resolution version of a forced global ocean-sea ice model, utilising the Norwegian Earth System Model, to assess the impact of increased ocean resolution. Our target is the simulation of temperature and salinity anomalies along the pathway of warm Atlantic water in the subpolar North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas. Although the high resolution version has larger biases in general at the ocean surface, the poleward propagation of thermohaline anomalies is better resolved in this version, i.e., the time for an anomaly to travel northward is more similar to observation based estimates. The extent of these anomalies can be rather large in both model versions, as also seen in observations, e.g., stretching from Scotland to northern Norway. The easternmost branch into the Nordic and Barents Seas, carrying warm Atlantic water, is also improved by higher resolution, both in terms of mean heat transport and variability in thermohaline properties. A more detailed assessment of the link between the North Atlantic Ocean circulation and the thermohaline anomalies at the entrance of the Nordic Seas reveals that the high resolution is more consistent with mechanisms that are previously published. This suggests better dynamics and variability in the subpolar region and the Nordic Seas in the high resolution compared to the medium resolution. This is most likely due a better representation of the mean circulation in the studied region when using higher resolution. As the poleward propagation of ocean heat anomalies is considered to be a key source of climate predictability, we recommend that similar methodology presented herein should be performed on coupled climate models that are used for climate prediction.

  12. Modelling carbon cycle in boreal wetlands with the Earth System Model ECHAM6/MPIOM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getzieh, Robert J.; Brovkin, Victor; Kleinen, Thomas; Raivonen, Maarit; Sevanto, Sanna

    2010-05-01

    Wetlands of the northern high latitudes provide excellent conditions for peat accumulation and methanogenesis. High moisture and low O2 content in the soils lead to effective preservation of soil organic matter and methane emissions. Boreal Wetlands contain about 450 PgC and currently constitute a significant natural source of methane (CH4) even though they cover only 3% of the global land surface. While storing carbon and removing CO2 from the atmosphere, boreal wetlands have contributed to global cooling on millennial timescales. Undisturbed boreal wetlands are likely to continue functioning as a net carbon sink. On the other hand these carbon pools might be destabilised in future since they are sensitive to climate change. Given that processes of peat accumulation and decay are closely dependent on hydrology and temperature, this balance may be altered significantly in the future. As a result, northern wetlands could have a large impact on carbon cycle-climate feedback mechanisms and therefore play an important role in global carbon cycle dynamics. However global biogeochemistry models used for simulations of CO2 dynamics in past and future climates usually neglect carbon cycle in wetlands. We investigate the potential for positive or negative feedbacks to the climate system through fluxes of greenhouse gases (CO2 and CH4) with the general circulation model ECHAM6/MPIOM. A generic model of peat accumulation and decay has been developed and implemented into the land surface module JSBACH. We consider anaerobic biogeochemical processes which lead to formation of thick organic soils. Furthermore we consider specific wetland plant functional types (PFTs) in our model such as vascular plants (sedges) which impact methane transport and oxidation processes and non vascular plants (sphagnum mosses) which are promoting peat growth. As prototypes we use the modelling approaches by Frolking et al. (2001) as well as Walter & Heimann (2001) for the peat dynamics, and the

  13. Challenges of including nitrogen effects on decomposition in earth system models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobbie, S. E.

    2011-12-01

    Despite the importance of litter decomposition for ecosystem fertility and carbon balance, key uncertainties remain about how this fundamental process is affected by nitrogen (N) availability. Nevertheless, resolving such uncertainties is critical for mechanistic inclusion of such processes in earth system models, towards predicting the ecosystem consequences of increased anthropogenic reactive N. Towards that end, we have conducted a series of experiments examining nitrogen effects on litter decomposition. We found that both substrate N and externally supplied N (regardless of form) accelerated the initial decomposition rate. Faster initial decomposition rates were linked to the higher activity of carbohydrate-degrading enzymes associated with externally supplied N and the greater relative abundances of Gram negative and Gram positive bacteria associated with green leaves and externally supplied organic N (assessed using phospholipid fatty acid analysis, PLFA). By contrast, later in decomposition, externally supplied N slowed decomposition, increasing the fraction of slowly decomposing litter and reducing lignin-degrading enzyme activity and relative abundances of Gram negative and Gram positive bacteria. Our results suggest that elevated atmospheric N deposition may have contrasting effects on the dynamics of different soil carbon pools, decreasing mean residence times of active fractions comprising very fresh litter, while increasing those of more slowly decomposing fractions including more processed litter. Incorporating these contrasting effects of N on decomposition processes into models is complicated by lingering uncertainties about how these effects generalize across ecosystems and substrates.

  14. Large divergence of satellite and Earth system model estimates of global terrestrial CO2 fertilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, W. Kolby; Reed, Sasha C.; Cleveland, Cory C.; Ballantyne, Ashley P; Anderegg, William R. L.; Wieder, William R.; Liu, Yi Y; Running, Steven W.

    2015-01-01

    Atmospheric mass balance analyses suggest that terrestrial carbon (C) storage is increasing, partially abating the atmospheric [CO2] growth rate, although the continued strength of this important ecosystem service remains uncertain. Some evidence suggests that these increases will persist owing to positive responses of vegetation growth (net primary productivity; NPP) to rising atmospheric [CO2] (that is, ‘CO2 fertilization’). Here, we present a new satellite-derived global terrestrial NPP data set, which shows a significant increase in NPP from 1982 to 2011. However, comparison against Earth system model (ESM) NPP estimates reveals a significant divergence, with satellite-derived increases (2.8 ± 1.50%) less than half of ESM-derived increases (7.6  ±  1.67%) over the 30-year period. By isolating the CO2 fertilization effect in each NPP time series and comparing it against a synthesis of available free-air CO2 enrichment data, we provide evidence that much of the discrepancy may be due to an over-sensitivity of ESMs to atmospheric [CO2], potentially reflecting an under-representation of climatic feedbacks and/or a lack of representation of nutrient constraints. Our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects on NPP needs rapid improvement to enable more accurate projections of future C cycle–climate feedbacks; we contend that better integration of modelling, satellite and experimental approaches offers a promising way forward.

  15. Finding the Root Causes of Statistical Inconsistency in Community Earth System Model Output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milroy, D.; Hammerling, D.; Baker, A. H.

    2017-12-01

    Baker et al (2015) developed the Community Earth System Model Ensemble Consistency Test (CESM-ECT) to provide a metric for software quality assurance by determining statistical consistency between an ensemble of CESM outputs and new test runs. The test has proved useful for detecting statistical difference caused by compiler bugs and errors in physical modules. However, detection is only the necessary first step in finding the causes of statistical difference. The CESM is a vastly complex model comprised of millions of lines of code which is developed and maintained by a large community of software engineers and scientists. Any root cause analysis is correspondingly challenging. We propose a new capability for CESM-ECT: identifying the sections of code that cause statistical distinguishability. The first step is to discover CESM variables that cause CESM-ECT to classify new runs as statistically distinct, which we achieve via Randomized Logistic Regression. Next we use a tool developed to identify CESM components that define or compute the variables found in the first step. Finally, we employ the application Kernel GENerator (KGEN) created in Kim et al (2016) to detect fine-grained floating point differences. We demonstrate an example of the procedure and advance a plan to automate this process in our future work.

  16. Representation of deforestation impacts on climate, water, and nutrient cycles in the ACME earth system model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, X.; Riley, W. J.; Zhu, Q.

    2017-12-01

    Deforestation causes a series of changes to the climate, water, and nutrient cycles. Employing a state-of-the-art earth system model—ACME (Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy), we comprehensively investigate the impacts of deforestation on these processes. We first assess the performance of the ACME Land Model (ALM) in simulating runoff, evapotranspiration, albedo, and plant productivity at 42 FLUXNET sites. The single column mode of ACME is then used to examine climate effects (temperature cooling/warming) and responses of runoff, evapotranspiration, and nutrient fluxes to deforestation. This approach separates local effects of deforestation from global circulation effects. To better understand the deforestation effects in a global context, we use the coupled (atmosphere, land, and slab ocean) mode of ACME to demonstrate the impacts of deforestation on global climate, water, and nutrient fluxes. Preliminary results showed that the land component of ACME has advantages in simulating these processes and that local deforestation has potentially large impacts on runoff and atmospheric processes.

  17. Universities Earth System Scientists Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, John E.

    1995-01-01

    This document constitutes the final technical report for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Grant NAGW-3172. This grant was instituted to provide for the conduct of research under the Universities Space Research Association's (USRA's) Universities Earth System Scientist Program (UESSP) for the Office of Mission to Planet Earth (OMTPE) at NASA Headquarters. USRA was tasked with the following requirements in support of the Universities Earth System Scientists Programs: (1) Bring to OMTPE fundamental scientific and technical expertise not currently resident at NASA Headquarters covering the broad spectrum of Earth science disciplines; (2) Conduct basic research in order to help establish the state of the science and technological readiness, related to NASA issues and requirements, for the following, near-term, scientific uncertainties, and data/information needs in the areas of global climate change, clouds and radiative balance, sources and sinks of greenhouse gases and the processes that control them, solid earth, oceans, polar ice sheets, land-surface hydrology, ecological dynamics, biological diversity, and sustainable development; (3) Evaluate the scientific state-of-the-field in key selected areas and to assist in the definition of new research thrusts for missions, including those that would incorporate the long-term strategy of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). This will, in part, be accomplished by study and evaluation of the basic science needs of the community as they are used to drive the development and maintenance of a global-scale observing system, the focused research studies, and the implementation of an integrated program of modeling, prediction, and assessment; and (4) Produce specific recommendations and alternative strategies for OMTPE that can serve as a basis for interagency and national and international policy on issues related to Earth sciences.

  18. Nitrogen limitation on land: how can it occur in Earth system models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, R Quinn; Brookshire, E N Jack; Gerber, Stefan

    2015-05-01

    The representation of the nitrogen (N) cycle in Earth system models (ESMs) is strongly motivated by the constraint N poses on the sequestration of anthropogenic carbon (C). Models typically implement a stoichiometric relationship between C and N in which external supply and assimilation by organisms are adjusted to maintain their internal stoichiometry. N limitation of primary productivity thus occurs if the N supply from uptake and fixation cannot keep up with the construction of tissues allowed by C assimilation. This basic approach, however, presents considerable challenges in how to faithfully represent N limitation. Here, we review how N limitation is currently implemented and evaluated in ESMs and highlight challenges and opportunities in their future development. At or near steady state, N limitation is governed by the magnitude of losses from the plant-unavailable pool vs. N fixation and there are considerable differences in how models treat both processes. In nonsteady-state systems, the accumulation of N in pools with slow turnover rates reduces N available for plant uptake and can be challenging to represent when initializing ESM simulations. Transactional N limitation occurs when N is incorporated into various vegetation and soil pools and becomes available to plants only after it is mineralized, the dynamics of which depends on how ESMs represent decomposition processes in soils. Other challenges for ESMs emerge when considering seasonal to interannual climatic oscillations as they create asynchronies between C and N demand, leading to transient alternations between N surplus and deficit. Proper evaluation of N dynamics in ESMs requires conceptual understanding of the main levers that trigger N limitation, and we highlight key measurements and observations that can help constrain these levers. Two of the biggest challenges are the mechanistic representation of plant controls on N availability and turnover, including N fixation and organic matter

  19. Earth System Modeling 2.0: A Blueprint for Models That Learn From Observations and Targeted High-Resolution Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Tapio; Lan, Shiwei; Stuart, Andrew; Teixeira, João.

    2017-12-01

    Climate projections continue to be marred by large uncertainties, which originate in processes that need to be parameterized, such as clouds, convection, and ecosystems. But rapid progress is now within reach. New computational tools and methods from data assimilation and machine learning make it possible to integrate global observations and local high-resolution simulations in an Earth system model (ESM) that systematically learns from both and quantifies uncertainties. Here we propose a blueprint for such an ESM. We outline how parameterization schemes can learn from global observations and targeted high-resolution simulations, for example, of clouds and convection, through matching low-order statistics between ESMs, observations, and high-resolution simulations. We illustrate learning algorithms for ESMs with a simple dynamical system that shares characteristics of the climate system; and we discuss the opportunities the proposed framework presents and the challenges that remain to realize it.

  20. The Transformation of Climate Models to Earth System Models and their Role in Policy Development and Decision Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Washington, W. M.

    2012-12-01

    We have seen over the last few decades continued improvement in climate models such that they are becoming Earth system models (ESMs). Usually climate models use specified concentrations of greenhouse gases whereas ESMs allow carbon, water, biochemical and other cycles to be fully interactive between various model components. Typically ESMs have atmospheric, ocean, land/vegetation, sea ice, urbanization components and some are starting to include glacier change which can directly affect sea level change. Steve Schneider, for whom this lecture is named after, strongly encouraged the development of such models and he went further to strongly suggest that these tools be developed beyond just the climate science questions. The modeling community needs to be interacting with the social, behavioral, and economic science communities. This would allow for realistic humankind interactions with the Earth system. In 2012, the federal government with advice from the National Academies developed a new strategic plan for the U. S. Global Change Research Program entitled The National Global Change Research Plan 2012-2021. This new plan has added the social, behavioral, and economic sciences to the mix of research expertise. It should be pointed out that the Global Change Research Act of 1990 passed by Congress specified strategic goals: advance science, inform decisions, conduct assessments, and communicate and educate. In order to carry out these goals an implementation plan is being put together by the 13 federal agencies and departments. Throughout Steve's professional life, he knew that to make global change understood required this broad community of sciences to work together to answer the questions that the public and policymakers had about environmental change. This talk will not only be about the historical developments in the field but also about the future research challenges. As part of the talk I will show several unpublished video segments of Steve explaining what

  1. Reconstruction of the Greenland ice sheet dynamics in a fully coupled Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rybak, Oleg; Volodin, Evgeny; Huybrechts, Philippe

    2016-04-01

    Earth system models (ESMs) are undoubtedly effective tools for studying climate dynamics. Incorporation of evolving ice sheets to ESMs is a challenging task because response times of the climate system and of ice sheets differ by several orders of magnitude. Besides, AO GCMs operate on spatial and temporal resolutions substantially differing from those of ice sheet models (ICMs). Therefore elaboration of an effective coupling methodology of an AO GCM and an ICM is the key problem of an ESM construction and utilization. Several downscaling strategies of varying complexity exist now of data exchange between modeled climate system and ice sheets. Application of a particular strategy depends on the research objectives. In our view, the optimum approach for model studying of significant environmental changes (e.g. glacial/interglacial transitions) when ice sheets undergo substantial evolution of geometry and volume would be an asynchronous coupling. The latter allows simulation in the interactive way of growth and decay of ice sheets in the changing climatic conditions. In the focus of the presentation, is the overview of coupling aspects of an AO GCM INMCM32 elaborated in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics (Moscow, Russia) to the Greenland ice sheet model (GrISM, Vrije Uninersiteit Brussel, Belgium). To provide interactive coupling of INMCM32 (spatial resolution 5°×4°, 21 vertical layers and temporal resolution 6 min. in the atmospheric block) and GrISM (spatial resolution 20×20 km, 51 vertical layers and 1 yr temporal resolution), we employ a special energy- and water balance model (EWBM-G), which serves as a buffer providing effective data exchange between INMCM32 and GrISM. EWBM-G operates in a rectangle domain including Greenland. Transfer of daily meanings of simulated climatic variables (air surface temperature and specific humidity) is provided on the lateral boundarias of the domain and inside the domain (sea level air pressure, wind speed and total

  2. Millennial timescale carbon cycle and climate change in an efficient Earth system model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lenton, T.M. [University of East Anglia, Tyndall Centre, UK and School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich (United Kingdom); Williamson, M.S. [University of East Anglia, Tyndall Centre, UK and School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich (United Kingdom); UK and National Oceanography Centre, Tyndall Centre, Southampton (United Kingdom); Edwards, N.R. [Open University, Earth Sciences, Milton Keynes (United Kingdom); Marsh, R.; Shepherd, J.G. [UK and National Oceanography Centre, Tyndall Centre, Southampton (United Kingdom); Price, A.R.; Cox, S.J. [University of Southampton, Southampton e-Science Centre, Southampton (United Kingdom); Ridgwell, A.J. [University of British Columbia, Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Vancouver (Canada)

    2006-06-15

    A new Earth system model, GENIE-1, is presented which comprises a 3-D frictional geostrophic ocean, phosphate-restoring marine biogeochemistry, dynamic and thermodynamic sea-ice, land surface physics and carbon cycling, and a seasonal 2-D energy-moisture balance atmosphere. Three sets of model climate parameters are used to explore the robustness of the results and for traceability to earlier work. The model versions have climate sensitivity of 2.8-3.3 C and predict atmospheric CO{sub 2} close to present observations. Six idealized total fossil fuel CO{sub 2} emissions scenarios are used to explore a range of 1,100-15,000 GtC total emissions and the effect of rate of emissions. Atmospheric CO{sub 2} approaches equilibrium in year 3000 at 420-5,660 ppmv, giving 1.5-12.5 C global warming. The ocean is a robust carbon sink of up to 6.5 GtC year{sup -1}. Under 'business as usual', the land becomes a carbon source around year 2100 which peaks at up to 2.5 GtC year{sup -1}. Soil carbon is lost globally, boreal vegetation generally increases, whilst under extreme forcing, dieback of some tropical and sub-tropical vegetation occurs. Average ocean surface pH drops by up to 1.15 units. A Greenland ice sheet melt threshold of 2.6 C local warming is only briefly exceeded if total emissions are limited to 1,100 GtC, whilst 15,000 GtC emissions cause complete Greenland melt by year 3000, contributing 7 m to sea level rise. Total sea-level rise, including thermal expansion, is 0.4-10 m in year 3000 and ongoing. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation shuts down in two out of three model versions, but only under extreme emissions including exotic fossil fuel resources. (orig.)

  3. Resolving terrestrial ecosystem processes along a subgrid topographic gradient for an earth-system model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subin, Z M; Milly, Paul C.D.; Sulman, B N; Malyshev, Sergey; Shevliakova, E

    2014-01-01

    Soil moisture is a crucial control on surface water and energy fluxes, vegetation, and soil carbon cycling. Earth-system models (ESMs) generally represent an areal-average soil-moisture state in gridcells at scales of 50–200 km and as a result are not able to capture the nonlinear effects of topographically-controlled subgrid heterogeneity in soil moisture, in particular where wetlands are present. We addressed this deficiency by building a subgrid representation of hillslope-scale topographic gradients, TiHy (Tiled-hillslope Hydrology), into the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) land model (LM3). LM3-TiHy models one or more representative hillslope geometries for each gridcell by discretizing them into land model tiles hydrologically coupled along an upland-to-lowland gradient. Each tile has its own surface fluxes, vegetation, and vertically-resolved state variables for soil physics and biogeochemistry. LM3-TiHy simulates a gradient in soil moisture and water-table depth between uplands and lowlands in each gridcell. Three hillslope hydrological regimes appear in non-permafrost regions in the model: wet and poorly-drained, wet and well-drained, and dry; with large, small, and zero wetland area predicted, respectively. Compared to the untiled LM3 in stand-alone experiments, LM3-TiHy simulates similar surface energy and water fluxes in the gridcell-mean. However, in marginally wet regions around the globe, LM3-TiHy simulates shallow groundwater in lowlands, leading to higher evapotranspiration, lower surface temperature, and higher leaf area compared to uplands in the same gridcells. Moreover, more than four-fold larger soil carbon concentrations are simulated globally in lowlands as compared with uplands. We compared water-table depths to those simulated by a recent global model-observational synthesis, and we compared wetland and inundated areas diagnosed from the model to observational datasets. The comparisons demonstrate that LM3-TiHy has the

  4. Implementation of methane cycling for deep time, global warming simulations with the DCESS Earth System Model (Version 1.2)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shaffer, Gary; Villanueva, Esteban Fernández; Rondanelli, Roberto

    2017-01-01

    Geological records reveal a number of ancient, large and rapid negative excursions of carbon-13 isotope. Such excursions can only be explained by massive injections of depleted carbon to the Earth System over a short duration. These injections may have forced strong global warming events, sometimes....... With this improved DCESS model version and paleo-reconstructions, we are now better armed to gauge the amounts, types, time scales and locations of methane injections driving specific, observed deep time, global warming events......., or from warming-induced dissociation of methane hydrate, a solid compound of methane and water found in ocean sediments. As a consequence of the ubiquity and importance of methane in major Earth events, Earth System models should include a comprehensive treatment of methane cycling but such a treatment...

  5. Carbon stocks and fluxes in the high latitudes: using site-levelbreak data to evaluate Earth system models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chadburn, S. E.; Krinner, G.; Porada, P.

    2017-01-01

    from northward expansion of vegetation under climate warming. Here we evaluate the simulation of tundra carbon stocks and fluxes in three land surface schemes that each form part of major Earth system models (JSBACH, Germany; JULES, UK; ORCHIDEE, France). We use a site-level approach in which...

  6. The meganism behind internally generated centennial-to-millennial scale climate variability in an earth system model of intermediate complexity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Friedrich, T.; Timmermann, A.; Menviel, L.; Elison Timm, O.; Mouchet, A.; Roche, D.M.V.A.P.

    2010-01-01

    The mechanism triggering centennial-to-millennial-scale variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM is investigated. It is found that for several climate boundary conditions such as low obliquity values (∼22.1 )

  7. Greenland Surface Mass Balance as Simulated by the Community Earth System Model. Part II: Twenty-First-Century Changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vizcaino, M.; Lipscomb, W.H.; Sacks, W.J.; van den Broeke, M.R.

    2014-01-01

    This study presents the first twenty-first-century projections of surface mass balance (SMB) changes for the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), which includes a new ice sheet component. For glaciated surfaces, CESM includes a sophisticated calculation of energy

  8. Millennial total sea-level commitments projected with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goelzer, H; Huybrechts, P; Raper, S C B; Loutre, M-F; Goosse, H; Fichefet, T

    2012-01-01

    Sea-level is expected to rise for a long time to come, even after stabilization of human-induced climatic warming. Here we use simulations with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM to project sea-level changes over the third millennium forced with atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations that stabilize by either 2000 or 2100 AD. The model includes 3D thermomechanical models of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets coupled to an atmosphere and an ocean model, a global glacier melt algorithm to account for the response of mountain glaciers and ice caps, and a procedure for assessing oceanic thermal expansion from oceanic heat uptake. Four climate change scenarios are considered to determine sea-level commitments. These assume a 21st century increase in greenhouse gases according to SRES scenarios B1, A1B and A2 with a stabilization of the atmospheric composition after the year 2100. One additional scenario assumes 1000 years of constant atmospheric composition from the year 2000 onwards. For our preferred model version, we find an already committed total sea-level rise of 1.1 m by 3000 AD. In experiments with greenhouse gas concentration stabilization at 2100 AD, the total sea-level rise ranges between 2.1 m (B1), 4.1 m (A1B) and 6.8 m (A2). In all scenarios, more than half of this amount arises from the Greenland ice sheet, thermal expansion is the second largest contributor, and the contribution of glaciers and ice caps is small as it is limited by the available ice volume of maximally 25 cm of sea-level equivalent. Additionally, we analysed the sensitivity of the sea-level contributions from an ensemble of nine different model versions that cover a large range of climate sensitivity realized by model parameter variations of the atmosphere–ocean model. Selected temperature indices are found to be good predictors for sea-level contributions from the different components of land ice and oceanic thermal expansion after 1000 years. (letter)

  9. Connecting Atlantic temperature variability and biological cycling in two earth system models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gnanadesikan, Anand; Dunne, John P.; Msadek, Rym

    2014-05-01

    Connections between the interdecadal variability in North Atlantic temperatures and biological cycling have been widely hypothesized. However, it is unclear whether such connections are due to small changes in basin-averaged temperatures indicated by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Index, or whether both biological cycling and the AMO index are causally linked to changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). We examine interdecadal variability in the annual and month-by-month diatom biomass in two Earth System Models with the same formulations of atmospheric, land, sea ice and ocean biogeochemical dynamics but different formulations of ocean physics and thus different AMOC structures and variability. In the isopycnal-layered ESM2G, strong interdecadal changes in surface salinity associated with changes in AMOC produce spatially heterogeneous variability in convection, nutrient supply and thus diatom biomass. These changes also produce changes in ice cover, shortwave absorption and temperature and hence the AMO Index. Off West Greenland, these changes are consistent with observed changes in fisheries and support climate as a causal driver. In the level-coordinate ESM2M, nutrient supply is much higher and interdecadal changes in diatom biomass are much smaller in amplitude and not strongly linked to the AMO index.

  10. A Generalized Stability Analysis of the AMOC in Earth System Models: Implication for Decadal Variability and Abrupt Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fedorov, Alexey V. [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States)

    2015-01-14

    The central goal of this research project was to understand the mechanisms of decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as related to climate variability and abrupt climate change within a hierarchy of climate models ranging from realistic ocean models to comprehensive Earth system models. Generalized Stability Analysis, a method that quantifies the transient and asymptotic growth of perturbations in the system, is one of the main approaches used throughout this project. The topics we have explored range from physical mechanisms that control AMOC variability to the factors that determine AMOC predictability in the Earth system models, to the stability and variability of the AMOC in past climates.

  11. Integrated modeling of land-use change: the role of coupling, interactions and feedbacks between the human and Earth systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, E.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Ejaz, Q.; Winchester, N.; Paltsev, S.; Reilly, J. M.

    2016-12-01

    Land-use change integrates a large number of components of the human and Earth systems, including climate, energy, water, and land. These complex coupling elements, interactions and feedbacks take place on a variety of space and time scales, thus increasing the complexity of land-use change modeling frameworks. In this study, we aim to identify which coupling elements, interactions and feedbacks are important for modeling land-use change, both at the global and regional level. First, we review the existing land-use change modeling framework used to develop land-use change projections for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. In such framework, land-use change is simulated by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and mainly influenced by economic, energy, demographic and policy drivers. IAMs focus on representing the demand for agriculture and forestry goods (crops for food and bioenergy, forest products for construction and bioenergy), the interactions with other sectors of the economy and trade between various regions of the world. Then, we investigate how important various coupling elements and feedbacks with the Earth system are for projections of land-use change at the global and regional level. We focus on the following: i) the climate impacts on land productivity and greenhouse gas emissions, which requires climate change information and coupling to a terrestrial ecosystem model/crop model; ii) the climate and economic impacts on irrigation availability, which requires coupling the LUC modeling framework to a water resources management model and disaggregating rainfed and irrigated croplands; iii) the feedback of land-use change on the global and regional climate system through land-use change emissions and changes in the surface albedo and hydrology, which requires coupling to an Earth system model. Finally, we conclude our study by highlighting the current lack of clarity in how various components of the human and Earth systems are

  12. Calculation of mass discharge of the Greenland ice sheet in the Earth System Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. O. Rybak

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Mass discharge calculation is a challenging task for the ice sheet modeling aimed at evaluation of their contribution to the global sea level rise during past interglacials, as well as one of the consequences of future climate change. In Greenland, ablation is the major source of fresh water runoff. It is approximately equal to the dynamical discharge (iceberg calving. Its share might have still larger during the past interglacials when the margins of the GrIS retreated inland. Refreezing of the melted water and its retention are two poorly known processes playing as a counterpart of melting and, thus, exerting influence on the run off. Interaction of ice sheets and climate is driven by energy and mass exchange processes and is complicated by numerous feed-backs. To study the complex of these processes, coupling of an ice sheet model and a climate model (i.e. models of the atmosphere and the ocean in one model is required, which is often called the Earth System Model (ESM. Formalization of processes of interaction between the ice sheets and climate within the ESM requires elaboration of special techniques to deal with dramatic differences in spatial and temporal variability scales within each of three ESM’s blocks. In this paper, we focus on the method of coupling of a Greenland ice sheet model (GrISM with the climate model INMCM having been developed in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of Russian Academy of Sciences. Our coupling approach consists in applying of a special buffer model, which serves as an interface between GrISM and INMCM. A simple energy and water exchange model (EWBM-G allows realistic description of surface air temperature and precipitation fields adjusted to a relief of elevation of the GrIS surface. In a series of diagnostic numerical experiments with the present-day GrIS geometry and the modeled climate we studied sensitivity of the modeled surface mass balance and run off to the key EWBM-G parameters and compared

  13. Progress with lossy compression of data from the Community Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, H.; Baker, A.; Hammerling, D.; Li, S.; Clyne, J.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models, such as the Community Earth System Model (CESM), generate massive quantities of data, particularly when run at high spatial and temporal resolutions. The burden of storage is further exacerbated by creating large ensembles, generating large numbers of variables, outputting at high frequencies, and duplicating data archives (to protect against disk failures). Applying lossy compression methods to CESM datasets is an attractive means of reducing data storage requirements, but ensuring that the loss of information does not negatively impact science objectives is critical. In particular, test methods are needed to evaluate whether critical features (e.g., extreme values and spatial and temporal gradients) have been preserved and to boost scientists' confidence in the lossy compression process. We will provide an overview on our progress in applying lossy compression to CESM output and describe our unique suite of metric tests that evaluate the impact of information loss. Further, we will describe our processes how to choose an appropriate compression algorithm (and its associated parameters) given the diversity of CESM data (e.g., variables may be constant, smooth, change abruptly, contain missing values, or have large ranges). Traditional compression algorithms, such as those used for images, are not necessarily ideally suited for floating-point climate simulation data, and different methods may have different strengths and be more effective for certain types of variables than others. We will discuss our progress towards our ultimate goal of developing an automated multi-method parallel approach for compression of climate data that both maximizes data reduction and minimizes the impact of data loss on science results.

  14. Regional Community Climate Simulations with variable resolution meshes in the Community Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarzycki, C. M.; Gettelman, A.; Callaghan, P.

    2017-12-01

    Accurately predicting weather extremes such as precipitation (floods and droughts) and temperature (heat waves) requires high resolution to resolve mesoscale dynamics and topography at horizontal scales of 10-30km. Simulating such resolutions globally for climate scales (years to decades) remains computationally impractical. Simulating only a small region of the planet is more tractable at these scales for climate applications. This work describes global simulations using variable-resolution static meshes with multiple dynamical cores that target the continental United States using developmental versions of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). CESM2 is tested in idealized, aquaplanet and full physics configurations to evaluate variable mesh simulations against uniform high and uniform low resolution simulations at resolutions down to 15km. Different physical parameterization suites are also evaluated to gauge their sensitivity to resolution. Idealized variable-resolution mesh cases compare well to high resolution tests. More recent versions of the atmospheric physics, including cloud schemes for CESM2, are more stable with respect to changes in horizontal resolution. Most of the sensitivity is due to sensitivity to timestep and interactions between deep convection and large scale condensation, expected from the closure methods. The resulting full physics model produces a comparable climate to the global low resolution mesh and similar high frequency statistics in the high resolution region. Some biases are reduced (orographic precipitation in the western United States), but biases do not necessarily go away at high resolution (e.g. summertime JJA surface Temp). The simulations are able to reproduce uniform high resolution results, making them an effective tool for regional climate studies and are available in CESM2.

  15. GLOBE and the Earth SySTEM Model in Teacher Preparation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jabot, M.; Moore, J.; Dorofy, P.

    2017-12-01

    This presentation will share the growing body of work linking ArcMap and GLOBE and the Earth SySTEM approach in the development of preservice teachers. Our work is linking the power of ArcMap with the vast database of GLOBE in a unique way that links the power of geospatial technologies in shaping the planning for and delivery of science instruction in the P-5 classroom.

  16. Response of Soil Temperature to Climate Change in the CMIP5 Earth System Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, C. L.; Torn, M. S.; Koven, C. D.

    2014-12-01

    Predictions of soil temperature changes are as critical to policy development and climate change adaptation as predictions of air temperature, but have received comparatively little attention. Soil temperature determines seed germination and growth of wild and agricultural plants, and impacts climate through both geophysical and carbon-cycle feedbacks. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report does not report soil temperature predictions, but focuses instead on surface air temperatures, despite the fact that mean annual soil temperatures and mean surface air temperatures are often different from each other. Here we aim to fill this important knowledge gap by reporting soil temperature and moisture predictions for 15 earth system models (ESMs) that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison 5 Project (CMIP5). Under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emissions scenarios, soil warming is predicted to almost keep pace with soil air warming, with about 10% less warming in soil than air, globally. The slower warming of soil compared to air is likely related to predictions of soil drying, with drier soils having reduced soil heat capacity and thermal conductivity. Mollisol soils, which are typically regarded as the most productive soil order for cultivating cereal crops, are anticipated to see warming in North America of 3.5 to 5.5 °C at the end of the 21st century (2080-2100) compared to 1986-2005. One impact of soil warming is likely to be an acceleration of germination timing, with the 3°C temperature threshold for wheat germination anticipated to advance by several weeks in Mollisol regions. Furthermore, soil warming at 1 m depth is predicted to be almost equivalent to warming at 1 cm depth in frost-free regions, indicating vulnerability of deep soil carbon pools to destabilization. To assess model performance we compare the models' predictions with observations of damping depth, and offsets between mean annual soil and air temperature

  17. Examination of a climate stabilization pathway via zero-emissions using Earth system models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nohara, Daisuke; Tsutsui, J; Watanabe, S; Tachiiri, K; Hajima, T; Okajima, H; Matsuno, T

    2015-01-01

    Long-term climate experiments up to the year 2300 have been conducted using two full-scale complex Earth system models (ESMs), CESM1(BGC) and MIROC-ESM, for a CO 2 emissions reduction pathway, termed Z650, where annual CO 2 emissions peak at 11 PgC in 2020, decline by 50% every 30 years, and reach zero in 2160. The results have been examined by focusing on the approximate linear relationship between the temperature increase and cumulative CO 2 emissions. Although the temperature increase is nearly proportional to the cumulative CO 2 emissions in both models, this relationship does not necessarily provide a robust basis for the restriction of CO 2 emissions because it is substantially modulated by non-CO 2 forcing. CO 2 -induced warming, estimated from the atmospheric CO 2 concentrations in the models, indicates an approximate compensation of nonlinear changes between fast-mode responses to concentration changes at less than 10 years and slow-mode response at more than 100 years due to the thermal inertia of the ocean. In this estimate, CESM1(BGC) closely approximates a linear trend of 1.7 °C per 1000 PgC, whereas MIROC-ESM shows a deviation toward higher temperatures after the emissions peak, from 1.8 °C to 2.4 °C per 1000 PgC over the range of 400–850 PgC cumulative emissions corresponding to years 2000–2050. The evolution of temperature under zero emissions, 2160–2300, shows a slight decrease of about 0.1 °C per century in CESM1(BGC), but remains almost constant in MIROC-ESM. The fast-mode response toward the equilibrium state decreases with a decrease in the airborne fraction owing to continued CO 2 uptake (carbon cycle inertia), whereas the slow-mode response results in more warming owing to continued heat uptake (thermal inertia). Several specific differences are noted between the two models regarding the degree of this compensation and in some key regional aspects associated with sustained warming and long-term climate risks. Overall, elevated

  18. Towards representing human behavior and decision making in Earth system models - an overview of techniques and approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller-Hansen, Finn; Schlüter, Maja; Mäs, Michael; Donges, Jonathan F.; Kolb, Jakob J.; Thonicke, Kirsten; Heitzig, Jobst

    2017-11-01

    Today, humans have a critical impact on the Earth system and vice versa, which can generate complex feedback processes between social and ecological dynamics. Integrating human behavior into formal Earth system models (ESMs), however, requires crucial modeling assumptions about actors and their goals, behavioral options, and decision rules, as well as modeling decisions regarding human social interactions and the aggregation of individuals' behavior. Here, we review existing modeling approaches and techniques from various disciplines and schools of thought dealing with human behavior at different levels of decision making. We demonstrate modelers' often vast degrees of freedom but also seek to make modelers aware of the often crucial consequences of seemingly innocent modeling assumptions. After discussing which socioeconomic units are potentially important for ESMs, we compare models of individual decision making that correspond to alternative behavioral theories and that make diverse modeling assumptions about individuals' preferences, beliefs, decision rules, and foresight. We review approaches to model social interaction, covering game theoretic frameworks, models of social influence, and network models. Finally, we discuss approaches to studying how the behavior of individuals, groups, and organizations can aggregate to complex collective phenomena, discussing agent-based, statistical, and representative-agent modeling and economic macro-dynamics. We illustrate the main ingredients of modeling techniques with examples from land-use dynamics as one of the main drivers of environmental change bridging local to global scales.

  19. Why Is Improvement of Earth System Models so Elusive? Challenges and Strategies from Dust Aerosol Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Ronald L.; Garcia-Pando, Carlos Perez; Perlwitz, Jan; Ginoux, Paul

    2015-01-01

    Past decades have seen an accelerating increase in computing efficiency, while climate models are representing a rapidly widening set of physical processes. Yet simulations of some fundamental aspects of climate like precipitation or aerosol forcing remain highly uncertain and resistant to progress. Dust aerosol modeling of soil particles lofted by wind erosion has seen a similar conflict between increasing model sophistication and remaining uncertainty. Dust aerosols perturb the energy and water cycles by scattering radiation and acting as ice nuclei, while mediating atmospheric chemistry and marine photosynthesis (and thus the carbon cycle). These effects take place across scales from the dimensions of an ice crystal to the planetary-scale circulation that disperses dust far downwind of its parent soil. Representing this range leads to several modeling challenges. Should we limit complexity in our model, which consumes computer resources and inhibits interpretation? How do we decide if a process involving dust is worthy of inclusion within our model? Can we identify a minimal representation of a complex process that is efficient yet retains the physics relevant to climate? Answering these questions about the appropriate degree of representation is guided by model evaluation, which presents several more challenges. How do we proceed if the available observations do not directly constrain our process of interest? (This could result from competing processes that influence the observed variable and obscure the signature of our process of interest.) Examples will be presented from dust modeling, with lessons that might be more broadly applicable. The end result will either be clinical depression or there assuring promise of continued gainful employment as the community confronts these challenges.

  20. Why Is Improvement of Earth System Models So Elusive? Challenges and Strategies From Dust Aerosol Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, R. L.; Pérez García-Pando, C.; Perlwitz, J. P.; Ginoux, P. A.

    2015-12-01

    Past decades have seen an accelerating increase in computing efficiency,while climate models are representing a rapidly widening set ofphysical processes. Yet simulations of some fundamental aspects ofclimate like precipitation or aerosol forcing remain highly uncertainand resistent to progress. Dust aerosol modeling of soil particleslofted by wind erosion has seen a similar conflict between increasingmodel sophistication and remaining uncertainty. Dust aerosols perturbthe energy and water cycles by scattering radiation and acting as icenuclei, while mediating atmospheric chemistry and marinephotosynthesis (and thus the carbon cycle). These effects take placeacross scales from the dimensions of an ice crystal to theplanetary-scale circulation that disperses dust far downwind of itsparent soil. Representing this range leads to several modelingchallenges. Should we limit complexity in our model, which consumescomputer resources and inhibits interpretation? How do we decide if aprocess involving dust is worthy of inclusion within our model? Canwe identify a minimal representation of a complex process that isefficient yet retains the physics relevant to climate? Answeringthese questions about the appropriate degree of representation isguided by model evaluation, which presents several more challenges.How do we proceed if the available observations do not directlyconstrain our process of interest? (This could result from competingprocesses that influence the observed variable and obscure thesignature of our process of interest.) Examples will be presentedfrom dust modeling, with lessons that might be more broadlyapplicable. The end result will either be clinical depression or thereassuring promise of continued gainful employment as the communityconfronts these challenges.

  1. Replicating the Ice-Volume Signal of the Early Pleistocene with a Complex Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabor, C. R.; Poulsen, C. J.; Pollard, D.

    2013-12-01

    Milankovitch theory proposes high-latitude summer insolation intensity paces the ice ages by controlling perennial snow cover amounts (Milankovitch, 1941). According to theory, the ~21 kyr cycle of precession should dominate the ice-volume records since it has the greatest influence on high-latitude summer insolation. Modeling experiments frequently support Milankovitch theory by attributing the majority of Northern Hemisphere high-latitude summer snowmelt to changes in the cycle of precession (e.g. Jackson and Broccoli, 2003). However, ice-volume proxy records, especially those of the Early Pleistocene (2.6-0.8 Ma), display variability with a period of ~41 kyr (Raymo and Lisiecki, 2005), indicative of insolation forcing from obliquity, which has a much smaller influence on summer insolation intensity than precession. Several hypotheses attempt to explain the discrepancies between Milkankovitch theory and the proxy records by invoking phenomena such as insolation gradients (Raymo and Nisancioglu, 2003), hemispheric offset (Raymo et al., 2006; Lee and Poulsen, 2009), and integrated summer energy (Huybers, 2006); however, all of these hypotheses contain caveats (Ruddiman, 2006) and have yet to be supported by modeling studies that use a complex GCM. To explore potential solutions to this '41 kyr problem,' we use an Earth system model composed of the GENESIS GCM and Land Surface model, the BIOME4 vegetation model, and the Pennsylvania State ice-sheet model. Using an asynchronous coupling technique, we run four idealized transient combinations of obliquity and precession, representing the orbital extremes of the Pleistocene (Berger and Loutre, 1991). Each experiment is run through several complete orbital cycles with a dynamic ice domain spanning North America and Greenland, and fixed preindustrial greenhouse-gas concentrations. For all orbital configurations, model results produce greater ice-volume spectral power at the frequency of obliquity despite significantly

  2. Reconstruction of the Eemian climate using a fully coupled Earth system model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rybak, Oleg; Volodin, Evgeny; Morozova, Polina; Huybrechts, Philippe

    2017-04-01

    Climate of the Last Interglacial (LIG) between ca. 130 and 115 kyr BP is thought to be a good analogue for future climate warming. Though the driving mechanisms of the past and current climate evolution differ, analysis of the LIG climate may provide important insights for projections of future environmental changes. We do not know properly what was spatial distribution and magnitude of surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies with respect to present. Sparse proxy data are attributed mostly to the continental margins, internal areas of ice sheets and particular regions of the World Ocean. Combining mathematical modeling and indirect evidence can help to identify driving mechanisms and feed-backs which formed climatic conditions of the LIG. In order to reproduce the LIG climate, we carried out transient numerical experiments using a fully coupled Earth System Model (ESM) consisting of an AO GCM, which includes decription of the biosphere, atmospheric and oceanic chemistry ets. (INMCM), developed in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics (Moscow, Russia) and the models of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrISM and AISM, Vrije Uninersiteit Brussel, Belgium). Though the newest version of the INMCM has rather high spatial resolution, it canot be used in long transient numerical experimemts because of high computational demand. Coupling of the GrISM and AISM to the low resolution version of the INMCM is complicated by essential differences in spatial and temporal scales of cryospheric, atmosphere and the ocean components of the ESM (spatial resolution 5˚×4˚, 21 vertical layers in the atmospheric block, 2.5°×2°, 6 min. temporal resolution; 33 vertical layers in the oceanic block; 20×20 km, 51 vertical layers and 1 yr temporal resolution in the GrISM and AISM). We apply two different coupling strategies. AISM is incorporated into the ESM via using procedures of resampling and interpolation of the input fields of annually averaged air surface

  3. Variable-Resolution Ensemble Climatology Modeling of Sierra Nevada Snowpack within the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhoades, A.; Ullrich, P. A.; Zarzycki, C. M.; Levy, M.; Taylor, M.

    2014-12-01

    Snowpack is crucial for the western USA, providing around 75% of the total fresh water supply (Cayan et al., 1996) and buffering against seasonal aridity impacts on agricultural, ecosystem, and urban water demands. The resilience of the California water system is largely dependent on natural stores provided by snowpack. This resilience has shown vulnerabilities due to anthropogenic global climate change. Historically, the northern Sierras showed a net decline of 50-75% in snow water equivalent (SWE) while the southern Sierras showed a net accumulation of 30% (Mote et al., 2005). Future trends of SWE highlight that western USA SWE may decline by 40-70% (Pierce and Cayan, 2013), snowfall may decrease by 25-40% (Pierce and Cayan, 2013), and more winter storms may tend towards rain rather than snow (Bales et al., 2006). The volatility of Sierran snowpack presents a need for scientific tools to help water managers and policy makers assess current and future trends. A burgeoning tool to analyze these trends comes in the form of variable-resolution global climate modeling (VRGCM). VRGCMs serve as a bridge between regional and global models and provide added resolution in areas of need, eliminate lateral boundary forcings, provide model runtime speed up, and utilize a common dynamical core, physics scheme and sub-grid scale parameterization package. A cubed-sphere variable-resolution grid with 25 km horizontal resolution over the western USA was developed for use in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). A 25-year three-member ensemble climatology (1980-2005) is presented and major snowpack metrics such as SWE, snow depth, snow cover, and two-meter surface temperature are assessed. The ensemble simulation is also compared to observational, reanalysis, and WRF model datasets. The variable-resolution model provides a mechanism for reaching towards non-hydrostatic scales and simulations are currently being developed with refined

  4. Improving estimations of greenhouse gas transfer velocities by atmosphere-ocean couplers in Earth-System and regional models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieira, V. M. N. C. S.; Sahlée, E.; Jurus, P.; Clementi, E.; Pettersson, H.; Mateus, M.

    2015-09-01

    Earth-System and regional models, forecasting climate change and its impacts, simulate atmosphere-ocean gas exchanges using classical yet too simple generalizations relying on wind speed as the sole mediator while neglecting factors as sea-surface agitation, atmospheric stability, current drag with the bottom, rain and surfactants. These were proved fundamental for accurate estimates, particularly in the coastal ocean, where a significant part of the atmosphere-ocean greenhouse gas exchanges occurs. We include several of these factors in a customizable algorithm proposed for the basis of novel couplers of the atmospheric and oceanographic model components. We tested performances with measured and simulated data from the European coastal ocean, having found our algorithm to forecast greenhouse gas exchanges largely different from the forecasted by the generalization currently in use. Our algorithm allows calculus vectorization and parallel processing, improving computational speed roughly 12× in a single cpu core, an essential feature for Earth-System models applications.

  5. Interactions of Vegetation and Climate: Remote Observations, Earth System Models, and the Amazon Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quetin, Gregory R.

    transitions in sign (greener when warmer or drier to greener when cooler or wetter) along an emergent line in climate space with a slope of about 59 mm/yr/°C, twice as steep as contours of aridity. The mismatch between these slopes is evidence at a global scale of the limitation of both water supply due to inefficiencies in plant access to rainfall, and plant physiological responses to atmospheric water demand. This empirical pattern can provide a functional constraint for process-based models, helping to improve predictions of the global-scale response of vegetation to a changing climate. In Chapter 2, we use observations of vegetation interaction with the physical environment to identify where ecosystem functioning is well simulated in an ensemble of Earth system models. We leverage this data-model comparison to hypothesize which physiological mechanisms--photosynthetic efficiency, respiration, water supply, atmospheric water demand, and sunlight availability--dominate the ecosystem response in places with different climates. The models are generally successful in reproducing the broad sign and shape of ecosystem function across climate space except for simulating generally lower leaf area during warmer years in places with hot wet climates. In addition, simulated ecosystem interaction with temperature is generally larger and changes more rapidly across a gradient of temperature than is observed. We hypothesize that the amplified interaction and change are both due to a lack of adaptation and acclimation in simulations. This discrepancy with observations suggests that simulated responses of vegetation to global warming, and feedbacks between vegetation and climate, are too strong in the models. Finally, models and observations share an abrupt threshold between dry regions and wet regions where strong positive vegetation response to precipitation falls to nearly zero in places receiving around 1000 mm/year. In Chapter 3, we investigate how ecoclimate interactions change

  6. The Australian Computational Earth Systems Simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mora, P.; Muhlhaus, H.; Lister, G.; Dyskin, A.; Place, D.; Appelbe, B.; Nimmervoll, N.; Abramson, D.

    2001-12-01

    Numerical simulation of the physics and dynamics of the entire earth system offers an outstanding opportunity for advancing earth system science and technology but represents a major challenge due to the range of scales and physical processes involved, as well as the magnitude of the software engineering effort required. However, new simulation and computer technologies are bringing this objective within reach. Under a special competitive national funding scheme to establish new Major National Research Facilities (MNRF), the Australian government together with a consortium of Universities and research institutions have funded construction of the Australian Computational Earth Systems Simulator (ACcESS). The Simulator or computational virtual earth will provide the research infrastructure to the Australian earth systems science community required for simulations of dynamical earth processes at scales ranging from microscopic to global. It will consist of thematic supercomputer infrastructure and an earth systems simulation software system. The Simulator models and software will be constructed over a five year period by a multi-disciplinary team of computational scientists, mathematicians, earth scientists, civil engineers and software engineers. The construction team will integrate numerical simulation models (3D discrete elements/lattice solid model, particle-in-cell large deformation finite-element method, stress reconstruction models, multi-scale continuum models etc) with geophysical, geological and tectonic models, through advanced software engineering and visualization technologies. When fully constructed, the Simulator aims to provide the software and hardware infrastructure needed to model solid earth phenomena including global scale dynamics and mineralisation processes, crustal scale processes including plate tectonics, mountain building, interacting fault system dynamics, and micro-scale processes that control the geological, physical and dynamic

  7. Fire in the Earth system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowman, David M J S; Balch, Jennifer K; Artaxo, Paulo; Bond, William J; Carlson, Jean M; Cochrane, Mark A; D'Antonio, Carla M; Defries, Ruth S; Doyle, John C; Harrison, Sandy P; Johnston, Fay H; Keeley, Jon E; Krawchuk, Meg A; Kull, Christian A; Marston, J Brad; Moritz, Max A; Prentice, I Colin; Roos, Christopher I; Scott, Andrew C; Swetnam, Thomas W; van der Werf, Guido R; Pyne, Stephen J

    2009-04-24

    Fire is a worldwide phenomenon that appears in the geological record soon after the appearance of terrestrial plants. Fire influences global ecosystem patterns and processes, including vegetation distribution and structure, the carbon cycle, and climate. Although humans and fire have always coexisted, our capacity to manage fire remains imperfect and may become more difficult in the future as climate change alters fire regimes. This risk is difficult to assess, however, because fires are still poorly represented in global models. Here, we discuss some of the most important issues involved in developing a better understanding of the role of fire in the Earth system.

  8. On inclusion of water resource management in Earth system models - Part 1: Problem definition and representation of water demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nazemi, A.; Wheater, H. S.

    2015-01-01

    Human activities have caused various changes to the Earth system, and hence the interconnections between human activities and the Earth system should be recognized and reflected in models that simulate Earth system processes. One key anthropogenic activity is water resource management, which determines the dynamics of human-water interactions in time and space and controls human livelihoods and economy, including energy and food production. There are immediate needs to include water resource management in Earth system models. First, the extent of human water requirements is increasing rapidly at the global scale and it is crucial to analyze the possible imbalance between water demands and supply under various scenarios of climate change and across various temporal and spatial scales. Second, recent observations show that human-water interactions, manifested through water resource management, can substantially alter the terrestrial water cycle, affect land-atmospheric feedbacks and may further interact with climate and contribute to sea-level change. Due to the importance of water resource management in determining the future of the global water and climate cycles, the World Climate Research Program's Global Energy and Water Exchanges project (WRCP-GEWEX) has recently identified gaps in describing human-water interactions as one of the grand challenges in Earth system modeling (GEWEX, 2012). Here, we divide water resource management into two interdependent elements, related firstly to water demand and secondly to water supply and allocation. In this paper, we survey the current literature on how various components of water demand have been included in large-scale models, in particular land surface and global hydrological models. Issues of water supply and allocation are addressed in a companion paper. The available algorithms to represent the dominant demands are classified based on the demand type, mode of simulation and underlying modeling assumptions. We discuss

  9. Flexible climate modeling systems: Lessons from Snowball Earth, Titan and Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierrehumbert, R. T.

    2007-12-01

    Climate models are only useful to the extent that real understanding can be extracted from them. Most leading- edge problems in climate change, paleoclimate and planetary climate require a high degree of flexibility in terms of incorporating model physics -- for example in allowing methane or CO2 to be a condensible substance instead of water vapor. This puts a premium on model design that allows easy modification, and on physical parameterizations that are close to fundamentals with as little empirical ad-hoc formulation as possible. I will provide examples from two approaches to this problem we have been using at the University of Chicago. The first is the FOAM general circulation model, which is a clean single-executable Fortran-77/c code supported by auxiliary applications in Python and Java. The second is a new approach based on using Python as a shell for assembling building blocks in compiled-code into full models. Applications to Snowball Earth, Titan and Mars, as well as pedagogical uses, will be discussed. One painful lesson we have learned is that Fortran-95 is a major impediment to portability and cross-language interoperability; in this light the trend toward Fortran-95 in major modelling groups is seen as a significant step backwards. In this talk, I will focus on modeling projects employing a full representation of atmospheric fluid dynamics, rather than "intermediate complexity" models in which the associated transports are parameterized.

  10. Earth-Mars Telecommunications and Information Management System (TIMS): Antenna Visibility Determination, Network Simulation, and Management Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odubiyi, Jide; Kocur, David; Pino, Nino; Chu, Don

    1996-01-01

    This report presents the results of our research on Earth-Mars Telecommunications and Information Management System (TIMS) network modeling and unattended network operations. The primary focus of our research is to investigate the feasibility of the TIMS architecture, which links the Earth-based Mars Operations Control Center, Science Data Processing Facility, Mars Network Management Center, and the Deep Space Network of antennae to the relay satellites and other communication network elements based in the Mars region. The investigation was enhanced by developing Build 3 of the TIMS network modeling and simulation model. The results of several 'what-if' scenarios are reported along with reports on upgraded antenna visibility determination software and unattended network management prototype.

  11. GFDL's ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon Earth System Models. Part I: physical formulation and baseline simulation characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunne, John P.; John, Jasmin G.; Adcroft, Alistair J.; Griffies, Stephen M.; Hallberg, Robert W.; Shevalikova, Elena; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Cooke, William; Dunne, Krista A.; Harrison, Matthew J.; Krasting, John P.; Malyshev, Sergey L.; Milly, P.C.D.; Phillipps, Peter J.; Sentman, Lori A.; Samuels, Bonita L.; Spelman, Michael J.; Winton, Michael; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Zadeh, Niki

    2012-01-01

    We describe the physical climate formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled carbon-climate Earth System Models, ESM2M and ESM2G. These models demonstrate similar climate fidelity as the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's previous CM2.1 climate model while incorporating explicit and consistent carbon dynamics. The two models differ exclusively in the physical ocean component; ESM2M uses Modular Ocean Model version 4.1 with vertical pressure layers while ESM2G uses Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics with a bulk mixed layer and interior isopycnal layers. Differences in the ocean mean state include the thermocline depth being relatively deep in ESM2M and relatively shallow in ESM2G compared to observations. The crucial role of ocean dynamics on climate variability is highlighted in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation being overly strong in ESM2M and overly weak ESM2G relative to observations. Thus, while ESM2G might better represent climate changes relating to: total heat content variability given its lack of long term drift, gyre circulation and ventilation in the North Pacific, tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans, and depth structure in the overturning and abyssal flows, ESM2M might better represent climate changes relating to: surface circulation given its superior surface temperature, salinity and height patterns, tropical Pacific circulation and variability, and Southern Ocean dynamics. Our overall assessment is that neither model is fundamentally superior to the other, and that both models achieve sufficient fidelity to allow meaningful climate and earth system modeling applications. This affords us the ability to assess the role of ocean configuration on earth system interactions in the context of two state-of-the-art coupled carbon-climate models.

  12. An Overview of the Future Development of Climate and Earth System Models for Scientific and Policy Use (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Washington, W. M.

    2010-12-01

    The development of climate and earth system models has been regarded primarily as the making of scientific tools to study the complex nature of the Earth’s climate. These models have a long history starting with very simple physical models based on fundamental physics in the 1960s and over time they have become much more complex with atmospheric, ocean, sea ice, land/vegetation, biogeochemical, glacial and ecological components. The policy use aspects of these models did not start in the 1960s and 1970s as decision making tools but were used to answer fundamental scientific questions such as what happens when the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration increases or is doubled. They gave insights into the various interactions and were extensively compared with observations. It was realized that models of the earlier time periods could only give first order answers to many of the fundamental policy questions. As societal concerns about climate change rose, the policy questions of anthropogenic climate change became better defined; they were mostly concerned with the climate impacts of increasing greenhouse gases, aerosols, and land cover change. In the late 1980s, the United Nations set up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to perform assessments of the published literature. Thus, the development of climate and Earth system models became intimately linked to the need to not only improve our scientific understanding but also answering fundamental policy questions. In order to meet this challenge, the models became more complex and realistic so that they could address these policy oriented science questions such as rising sea level. The presentation will discuss the past and future development of global climate and earth system models for science and policy purposes. Also to be discussed is their interactions with economic integrated assessment models, regional and specialized models such as river transport or ecological components. As an example of one

  13. Plant functional types in Earth system models: past experiences and future directions for application of dynamic vegetation models in high-latitude ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wullschleger, S.D.; Epstein, H.E.; Box, E.O.; Euskirchen, E.S.; Goswami, S.; Iversen, C.M.; Kattge, J.; Norby, R.J.; van Bodegom, P.M.; Xu, X.

    2014-01-01

    Background Earth system models describe the physical, chemical and biological processes that govern our global climate. While it is difficult to single out one component as being more important than another in these sophisticated models, terrestrial vegetation is a critical player in the

  14. The Lifeworld Earth and a Modelled Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juuti, Kalle

    2014-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to study the question of whether a phenomenological view of the Earth could be empirically endorsed. The phenomenological way of thinking considers the Earth as a material entity, but not as an object as viewed in science. In the learning science tradition, tracking the process of the conceptual change of the shape of the…

  15. Evaluation of geomagnetic field models using magnetometer measurements for satellite attitude determination system at low earth orbits: Case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cilden-Guler, Demet; Kaymaz, Zerefsan; Hajiyev, Chingiz

    2018-01-01

    In this study, different geomagnetic field models are compared in order to study the errors resulting from the representation of magnetic fields that affect the satellite attitude system. For this purpose, we used magnetometer data from two Low Earth Orbit (LEO) spacecraft and the geomagnetic models IGRF-12 (Thébault et al., 2015) and T89 (Tsyganenko, 1989) models to study the differences between the magnetic field components, strength and the angle between the predicted and observed vector magnetic fields. The comparisons were made during geomagnetically active and quiet days to see the effects of the geomagnetic storms and sub-storms on the predicted and observed magnetic fields and angles. The angles, in turn, are used to estimate the spacecraft attitude and hence, the differences between model and observations as well as between two models become important to determine and reduce the errors associated with the models under different space environment conditions. We show that the models differ from the observations even during the geomagnetically quiet times but the associated errors during the geomagnetically active times increase. We find that the T89 model gives closer predictions to the observations, especially during active times and the errors are smaller compared to the IGRF-12 model. The magnitude of the error in the angle under both environmental conditions was found to be less than 1°. For the first time, the geomagnetic models were used to address the effects of the near Earth space environment on the satellite attitude.

  16. 231Pa and 230Th in the ocean model of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1.3)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Sifan; Liu, Zhengyu

    2017-12-01

    The sediment 231Pa / 230Th activity ratio is emerging as an important proxy for deep ocean circulation in the past. In order to allow for a direct model-data comparison and to improve our understanding of the sediment 231Pa / 230Th activity ratio, we implement 231Pa and 230Th in the ocean component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In addition to the fully coupled implementation of the scavenging behavior of 231Pa and 230Th with the active marine ecosystem module (particle-coupled: hereafter p-coupled), another form of 231Pa and 230Th have also been implemented with prescribed particle flux fields of the present climate (particle-fixed: hereafter p-fixed). The comparison of the two forms of 231Pa and 230Th helps to isolate the influence of the particle fluxes from that of ocean circulation. Under present-day climate forcing, our model is able to simulate water column 231Pa and 230Th activity and the sediment 231Pa / 230Th activity ratio in good agreement with available observations. In addition, in response to freshwater forcing, the p-coupled and p-fixed sediment 231Pa / 230Th activity ratios behave similarly over large areas of low productivity on long timescales, but can differ substantially in some regions of high productivity and on short timescales, indicating the importance of biological productivity in addition to ocean transport. Therefore, our model provides a potentially powerful tool to help the interpretation of sediment 231Pa / 230Th reconstructions and to improve our understanding of past ocean circulation and climate changes.

  17. From COST 271 to 296 EU actions on ionospheric monitoring and modelling for terrestrial and Earth space radio systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zolesi, B.; Cander, Lj. R.; Altadill, D.

    The ionospheric community has long been aware that co-operative research on an international basis is essential to deal with temporal and spatial changes in the ionosphere that influence the performance of terrestrial and Earth-space radio systems. The EU COST (Co-operation in the field of Scientific and Technical Research) 271 Action on "Effects of the Upper Atmosphere on Terrestrial and Earth-space Communications" has had during the period of October 2000-August 2004 the following main objectives: (1) to evaluate the influence of upper atmospheric conditions on terrestrial and Earth-space communications, (2) to develop methods and techniques to improve ionospheric models over Europe for telecommunication and navigation applications and (3) to transfer the results to the appropriate radiocommunication study groups of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU-R) and other national and international organizations dealing with the modern communication systems. At the beginning of 2005 the new 296 Action in the COST Telecommunications, Information Science and Technology domain on "Mitigation of Ionospheric Effects on Radio Systems (MIERS)" was approved for the period 2005-2009. The main objectives of the MIERS are: (a) to support and enhanced the existing European facilities for historical and real-time digital ionospheric data collection and exchange; (b) to develop an integrated approach to ionospheric modelling, create the mechanism needed to ingest processed data into models, extend and develop suitable mitigation models and define the protocols needed to link models together; and (c) to strengthen the areas of expertise that already exist by stimulating closer cooperation between scientists and users, focusing the scope of all the previous COST ionospheric related studies to the mitigation of ionospheric effects on radio systems. This paper summarises briefly how the major objectives of the COST271 Action have been achieved and what are the most important

  18. Observationally-based Metrics of Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemical Variables are Essential for Evaluating Earth System Model Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, J. L.; Sarmiento, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    The Southern Ocean is central to the climate's response to increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases as it ventilates a large fraction of the global ocean volume. Global coupled climate models and earth system models, however, vary widely in their simulations of the Southern Ocean and its role in, and response to, the ongoing anthropogenic forcing. Due to its complex water-mass structure and dynamics, Southern Ocean carbon and heat uptake depend on a combination of winds, eddies, mixing, buoyancy fluxes and topography. Understanding how the ocean carries heat and carbon into its interior and how the observed wind changes are affecting this uptake is essential to accurately projecting transient climate sensitivity. Observationally-based metrics are critical for discerning processes and mechanisms, and for validating and comparing climate models. As the community shifts toward Earth system models with explicit carbon simulations, more direct observations of important biogeochemical parameters, like those obtained from the biogeochemically-sensored floats that are part of the Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling project, are essential. One goal of future observing systems should be to create observationally-based benchmarks that will lead to reducing uncertainties in climate projections, and especially uncertainties related to oceanic heat and carbon uptake.

  19. Encyclopedia of earth system science

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Nierenberg, William Aaron

    1992-01-01

    .... The very diversity of the articles attests to the complexity of earth system science as a unique interdisciplinary venture to place humanity in a position to move wisely to protect the global habitat...

  20. NASA's Earth Science Data Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramapriyan, H. K.

    2015-01-01

    NASA's Earth Science Data Systems (ESDS) Program has evolved over the last two decades, and currently has several core and community components. Core components provide the basic operational capabilities to process, archive, manage and distribute data from NASA missions. Community components provide a path for peer-reviewed research in Earth Science Informatics to feed into the evolution of the core components. The Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) is a core component consisting of twelve Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs) and eight Science Investigator-led Processing Systems spread across the U.S. The presentation covers how the ESDS Program continues to evolve and benefits from as well as contributes to advances in Earth Science Informatics.

  1. Baltic Earth - Earth System Science for the Baltic Sea Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Markus; Rutgersson, Anna; Lehmann, Andreas; Reckermann, Marcus

    2014-05-01

    The Baltic Sea region, defined as its river catchment basin, spans different climate and population zones, from a temperate, highly populated, industrialized south with intensive agriculture to a boreal, rural north. It encompasses most of the Scandinavian Peninsula in the west; most of Finland and parts of Russia, Belarus, and the Baltic states in the east; and Poland and small parts of Germany and Denmark in the south. The region represents an old cultural landscape, and the Baltic Sea itself is among the most studied sea areas of the world. Baltic Earth is the new Earth system research network for the Baltic Sea region. It is the successor to BALTEX, which was terminated in June 2013 after 20 years and two successful phases. Baltic Earth stands for the vision to achieve an improved Earth system understanding of the Baltic Sea region. This means that the research disciplines of BALTEX continue to be relevant, i.e. atmospheric and climate sciences, hydrology, oceanography and biogeochemistry, but a more holistic view of the Earth system encompassing processes in the atmosphere, on land and in the sea as well as in the anthroposphere shall gain in importance in Baltic Earth. Specific grand research challenges have been formulated, representing interdisciplinary research questions to be tackled in the coming years. A major means will be scientific assessments of particular research topics by expert groups, similar to the BACC approach, which shall help to identify knowledge gaps and develop research strategies. Preliminary grand challenges and topics for which Working Groups have been installed include: • Salinity dynamics in the Baltic Sea • Land-Sea biogeochemical feedbacks in the Baltic Sea region • Natural hazards and extreme events in the Baltic Sea region • Understanding sea level dynamics in the Baltic Sea • Understanding regional variability of water and energy exchange • Utility of Regional Climate Models • Assessment of Scenario Simulations

  2. Student Learning of Complex Earth Systems: Conceptual Frameworks of Earth Systems and Instructional Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherer, Hannah H.; Holder, Lauren; Herbert, Bruce

    2017-01-01

    Engaging students in authentic problem solving concerning environmental issues in near-surface complex Earth systems involves both developing student conceptualization of Earth as a system and applying that scientific knowledge using techniques that model those used by professionals. In this first paper of a two-part series, we review the state of…

  3. Development of a hybrid 3-D hydrological model to simulate hillslopes and the regional unconfined aquifer system in Earth system models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazenberg, P.; Broxton, P. D.; Brunke, M.; Gochis, D.; Niu, G. Y.; Pelletier, J. D.; Troch, P. A. A.; Zeng, X.

    2015-12-01

    The terrestrial hydrological system, including surface and subsurface water, is an essential component of the Earth's climate system. Over the past few decades, land surface modelers have built one-dimensional (1D) models resolving the vertical flow of water through the soil column for use in Earth system models (ESMs). These models generally have a relatively coarse model grid size (~25-100 km) and only account for sub-grid lateral hydrological variations using simple parameterization schemes. At the same time, hydrologists have developed detailed high-resolution (~0.1-10 km grid size) three dimensional (3D) models and showed the importance of accounting for the vertical and lateral redistribution of surface and subsurface water on soil moisture, the surface energy balance and ecosystem dynamics on these smaller scales. However, computational constraints have limited the implementation of the high-resolution models for continental and global scale applications. The current work presents a hybrid-3D hydrological approach is presented, where the 1D vertical soil column model (available in many ESMs) is coupled with a high-resolution lateral flow model (h2D) to simulate subsurface flow and overland flow. H2D accounts for both local-scale hillslope and regional-scale unconfined aquifer responses (i.e. riparian zone and wetlands). This approach was shown to give comparable results as those obtained by an explicit 3D Richards model for the subsurface, but improves runtime efficiency considerably. The h3D approach is implemented for the Delaware river basin, where Noah-MP land surface model (LSM) is used to calculated vertical energy and water exchanges with the atmosphere using a 10km grid resolution. Noah-MP was coupled within the WRF-Hydro infrastructure with the lateral 1km grid resolution h2D model, for which the average depth-to-bedrock, hillslope width function and soil parameters were estimated from digital datasets. The ability of this h3D approach to simulate

  4. Implementation of methane cycling for deep time, global warming simulations with the DCESS Earth System Model (Version 1.2)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shaffer, Gary; Villanueva, Esteban Fernández; Rondanelli, Roberto

    2017-01-01

    Geological records reveal a number of ancient, large and rapid negative excursions of carbon-13 isotope. Such excursions can only be explained by massive injections of depleted carbon to the Earth System over a short duration. These injections may have forced strong global warming events, sometimes....... With this improved DCESS model version and paleo-reconstructions, we are now better armed to gauge the amounts, types, time scales and locations of methane injections driving specific, observed deep time, global warming events....

  5. Understanding why the volume of suboxic waters does not increase over centuries of global warming in an Earth System Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Gnanadesikan

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Global warming is expected to reduce oxygen solubility and vertical exchange in the ocean, changes which would be expected to result in an increase in the volume of hypoxic waters. A simulation made with a full Earth System model with dynamical atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and biogeochemical cycling (the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Earth System Model 2.1 shows that this holds true if the condition for hypoxia is set relatively high. However, the volume of the most hypoxic (i.e., suboxic waters does not increase under global warming, as these waters actually become more oxygenated. We show that the rise in dissolved oxygen in the tropical Pacific is associated with a drop in ventilation time. A term-by-term analysis within the least oxygenated waters shows an increased supply of dissolved oxygen due to lateral diffusion compensating an increase in remineralization within these highly hypoxic waters. This lateral diffusive flux is the result of an increase of ventilation along the Chilean coast, as a drying of the region under global warming opens up a region of wintertime convection in our model. The results highlight the potential sensitivity of suboxic waters to changes in subtropical ventilation as well as the importance of constraining lateral eddy transport of dissolved oxygen in such waters.

  6. Understanding why the volume of suboxic waters does not increase over centuries of global warming in an Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gnanadesikan, A.; Dunne, J. P.; John, J.

    2012-03-01

    Global warming is expected to reduce oxygen solubility and vertical exchange in the ocean, changes which would be expected to result in an increase in the volume of hypoxic waters. A simulation made with a full Earth System model with dynamical atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and biogeochemical cycling (the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Earth System Model 2.1) shows that this holds true if the condition for hypoxia is set relatively high. However, the volume of the most hypoxic (i.e., suboxic) waters does not increase under global warming, as these waters actually become more oxygenated. We show that the rise in dissolved oxygen in the tropical Pacific is associated with a drop in ventilation time. A term-by-term analysis within the least oxygenated waters shows an increased supply of dissolved oxygen due to lateral diffusion compensating an increase in remineralization within these highly hypoxic waters. This lateral diffusive flux is the result of an increase of ventilation along the Chilean coast, as a drying of the region under global warming opens up a region of wintertime convection in our model. The results highlight the potential sensitivity of suboxic waters to changes in subtropical ventilation as well as the importance of constraining lateral eddy transport of dissolved oxygen in such waters.

  7. Software Engineering Support of the Third Round of Scientific Grand Challenge Investigations: Earth System Modeling Software Framework Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talbot, Bryan; Zhou, Shu-Jia; Higgins, Glenn; Zukor, Dorothy (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    One of the most significant challenges in large-scale climate modeling, as well as in high-performance computing in other scientific fields, is that of effectively integrating many software models from multiple contributors. A software framework facilitates the integration task, both in the development and runtime stages of the simulation. Effective software frameworks reduce the programming burden for the investigators, freeing them to focus more on the science and less on the parallel communication implementation. while maintaining high performance across numerous supercomputer and workstation architectures. This document surveys numerous software frameworks for potential use in Earth science modeling. Several frameworks are evaluated in depth, including Parallel Object-Oriented Methods and Applications (POOMA), Cactus (from (he relativistic physics community), Overture, Goddard Earth Modeling System (GEMS), the National Center for Atmospheric Research Flux Coupler, and UCLA/UCB Distributed Data Broker (DDB). Frameworks evaluated in less detail include ROOT, Parallel Application Workspace (PAWS), and Advanced Large-Scale Integrated Computational Environment (ALICE). A host of other frameworks and related tools are referenced in this context. The frameworks are evaluated individually and also compared with each other.

  8. Land Boundary Conditions for the Goddard Earth Observing System Model Version 5 (GEOS-5) Climate Modeling System: Recent Updates and Data File Descriptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahanama, Sarith P.; Koster, Randal D.; Walker, Gregory K.; Takacs, Lawrence L.; Reichle, Rolf H.; De Lannoy, Gabrielle; Liu, Qing; Zhao, Bin; Suarez, Max J.

    2015-01-01

    The Earths land surface boundary conditions in the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) modeling system were updated using recent high spatial and temporal resolution global data products. The updates include: (i) construction of a global 10-arcsec land-ocean lakes-ice mask; (ii) incorporation of a 10-arcsec Globcover 2009 land cover dataset; (iii) implementation of Level 12 Pfafstetter hydrologic catchments; (iv) use of hybridized SRTM global topography data; (v) construction of the HWSDv1.21-STATSGO2 merged global 30 arc second soil mineral and carbon data in conjunction with a highly-refined soil classification system; (vi) production of diffuse visible and near-infrared 8-day MODIS albedo climatologies at 30-arcsec from the period 2001-2011; and (vii) production of the GEOLAND2 and MODIS merged 8-day LAI climatology at 30-arcsec for GEOS-5. The global data sets were preprocessed and used to construct global raster data files for the software (mkCatchParam) that computes parameters on catchment-tiles for various atmospheric grids. The updates also include a few bug fixes in mkCatchParam, as well as changes (improvements in algorithms, etc.) to mkCatchParam that allow it to produce tile-space parameters efficiently for high resolution AGCM grids. The update process also includes the construction of data files describing the vegetation type fractions, soil background albedo, nitrogen deposition and mean annual 2m air temperature to be used with the future Catchment CN model and the global stream channel network to be used with the future global runoff routing model. This report provides detailed descriptions of the data production process and data file format of each updated data set.

  9. Quantitative Modeling of Earth Surface Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelletier, Jon D.

    This textbook describes some of the most effective and straightforward quantitative techniques for modeling Earth surface processes. By emphasizing a core set of equations and solution techniques, the book presents state-of-the-art models currently employed in Earth surface process research, as well as a set of simple but practical research tools. Detailed case studies demonstrate application of the methods to a wide variety of processes including hillslope, fluvial, aeolian, glacial, tectonic, and climatic systems. Exercises at the end of each chapter begin with simple calculations and then progress to more sophisticated problems that require computer programming. All the necessary computer codes are available online at www.cambridge.org/9780521855976. Assuming some knowledge of calculus and basic programming experience, this quantitative textbook is designed for advanced geomorphology courses and as a reference book for professional researchers in Earth and planetary science looking for a quantitative approach to Earth surface processes. More details...

  10. Studying the impact of different climate engineering techniques on ocean acidification with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, M. F.; Ilyina, T.; Sonntag, S.

    2016-02-01

    In order to counterbalance the consequences of climate change, different climate engineering (CE) technologies have been suggested. Nonetheless, knowledge about their mitigation potential and side-effects remains sparse. Ocean alkalinization (OA) is an ocean-based carbon dioxide removal method, that aims at enhancing the natural process of weathering by which atmospheric CO2 is absorbed and stored in the ocean via chemical sequestration. Large-scale afforestation can also boost the uptake of CO2 by terrestrial biological systems and it is commonly considered as CE method. Stratospheric sulfur injection is a solar radiation management technique that has been proposed in order to enhance the Earth's albedo, mimicking the release of sulfur particles into the atmosphere during volcanic eruptions and the subsequent decrease in surface atmospheric temperatures. We explore the mitigation potential and side-effects of these CE technologies using the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. Our scenarios are designed in order to test under what conditions it is possible to achieve a climate state that resembles the one of the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 under RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emissions. Direct and indirect effects of the OA method on the oceanic carbon cycle, differ strongly from those associated with afforestation and stratospheric sulfur injection. This is because they depend upon joint responses and synergies between different elements of the Earth system; thus, effects on the oceanic carbon cycle are not intuitively understood. Changes in the strength of the marine carbon sink, seawater pH and saturation state of carbonate minerals will be discussed. Additionally, collateral changes in marine biota and ocean biogeochemistry will be presented.

  11. Earth system modelling on system-level heterogeneous architectures: EMAC (version 2.42) on the Dynamical Exascale Entry Platform (DEEP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christou, Michalis; Christoudias, Theodoros; Morillo, Julián; Alvarez, Damian; Merx, Hendrik

    2016-09-01

    We examine an alternative approach to heterogeneous cluster-computing in the many-core era for Earth system models, using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Hamburg (ECHAM)/Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model as a pilot application on the Dynamical Exascale Entry Platform (DEEP). A set of autonomous coprocessors interconnected together, called Booster, complements a conventional HPC Cluster and increases its computing performance, offering extra flexibility to expose multiple levels of parallelism and achieve better scalability. The EMAC model atmospheric chemistry code (Module Efficiently Calculating the Chemistry of the Atmosphere (MECCA)) was taskified with an offload mechanism implemented using OmpSs directives. The model was ported to the MareNostrum 3 supercomputer to allow testing with Intel Xeon Phi accelerators on a production-size machine. The changes proposed in this paper are expected to contribute to the eventual adoption of Cluster-Booster division and Many Integrated Core (MIC) accelerated architectures in presently available implementations of Earth system models, towards exploiting the potential of a fully Exascale-capable platform.

  12. Models of the earth's core

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, D. J.

    1981-01-01

    Combined inferences from seismology, high-pressure experiment and theory, geomagnetism, fluid dynamics, and current views of terrestrial planetary evolution lead to models of the earth's core with five basic properties. These are that core formation was contemporaneous with earth accretion; the core is not in chemical equilibrium with the mantle; the outer core is a fluid iron alloy containing significant quantities of lighter elements and is probably almost adiabatic and compositionally uniform; the more iron-rich inner solid core is a consequence of partial freezing of the outer core, and the energy release from this process sustains the earth's magnetic field; and the thermodynamic properties of the core are well constrained by the application of liquid-state theory to seismic and labroatory data.

  13. (Re)engineering Earth System Models to Expose Greater Concurrency for Ultrascale Computing: Practice, Experience, and Musings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, R. T.

    2014-12-01

    As the high performance computing (HPC) community pushes towards the exascale horizon, the importance and prevalence of fine-grained parallelism in new computer architectures is increasing. This is perhaps most apparent in the proliferation of so-called "accelerators" such as the Intel Xeon Phi or NVIDIA GPGPUs, but the trend also holds for CPUs, where serial performance has grown slowly and effective use of hardware threads and vector units are becoming increasingly important to realizing high performance. This has significant implications for weather, climate, and Earth system modeling codes, many of which display impressive scalability across MPI ranks but take relatively little advantage of threading and vector processing. In addition to increasing parallelism, next generation codes will also need to address increasingly deep hierarchies for data movement: NUMA/cache levels, on node vs. off node, local vs. wide neighborhoods on the interconnect, and even in the I/O system. We will discuss some approaches (grounded in experiences with the Intel Xeon Phi architecture) for restructuring Earth science codes to maximize concurrency across multiple levels (vectors, threads, MPI ranks), and also discuss some novel approaches for minimizing expensive data movement/communication.

  14. Seasonal-to-decadal predictions with the ensemble Kalman filter and the Norwegian Earth System Model: a twin experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francois Counillon

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Here, we firstly demonstrate the potential of an advanced flow dependent data assimilation method for performing seasonal-to-decadal prediction and secondly, reassess the use of sea surface temperature (SST for initialisation of these forecasts. We use the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM, which is based on the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM and uses the deterministic ensemble Kalman filter to assimilate observations. NorESM is a fully coupled system based on the Community Earth System Model version 1, which includes an ocean, an atmosphere, a sea ice and a land model. A numerically efficient coarse resolution version of NorESM is used. We employ a twin experiment methodology to provide an upper estimate of predictability in our model framework (i.e. without considering model bias of NorCPM that assimilates synthetic monthly SST data (EnKF-SST. The accuracy of EnKF-SST is compared to an unconstrained ensemble run (FREE and ensemble predictions made with near perfect (i.e. microscopic SST perturbation initial conditions (PERFECT. We perform 10 cycles, each consisting of a 10-yr assimilation phase, followed by a 10-yr prediction. The results indicate that EnKF-SST improves sea level, ice concentration, 2 m atmospheric temperature, precipitation and 3-D hydrography compared to FREE. Improvements for the hydrography are largest near the surface and are retained for longer periods at depth. Benefits in salinity are retained for longer periods compared to temperature. Near-surface improvements are largest in the tropics, while improvements at intermediate depths are found in regions of large-scale currents, regions of deep convection, and at the Mediterranean Sea outflow. However, the benefits are often small compared to PERFECT, in particular, at depth suggesting that more observations should be assimilated in addition to SST. The EnKF-SST system is also tested for standard ocean circulation indices and demonstrates decadal

  15. The effects of spatial heterogeneity and subsurface lateral transfer on evapotranspiration estimates in large scale Earth system models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rouholahnejad, E.; Fan, Y.; Kirchner, J. W.; Miralles, D. G.

    2017-12-01

    Most Earth system models (ESM) average over considerable sub-grid heterogeneity in land surface properties, and overlook subsurface lateral flow. This could potentially bias evapotranspiration (ET) estimates and has implications for future temperature predictions, since overestimations in ET imply greater latent heat fluxes and potential underestimation of dry and warm conditions in the context of climate change. Here we quantify the bias in evaporation estimates that may arise from the fact that ESMs average over considerable heterogeneity in surface properties, and also neglect lateral transfer of water across the heterogeneous landscapes at global scale. We use a Budyko framework to express ET as a function of P and PET to derive simple sub-grid closure relations that quantify how spatial heterogeneity and lateral transfer could affect average ET as seen from the atmosphere. We show that averaging over sub-grid heterogeneity in P and PET, as typical Earth system models do, leads to overestimation of average ET. Our analysis at global scale shows that the effects of sub-grid heterogeneity will be most pronounced in steep mountainous areas where the topographic gradient is high and where P is inversely correlated with PET across the landscape. In addition, we use the Total Water Storage (TWS) anomaly estimates from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) remote sensing product and assimilate it into the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) to correct for existing free drainage lower boundary condition in GLEAM and quantify whether, and how much, accounting for changes in terrestrial storage can improve the simulation of soil moisture and regional ET fluxes at global scale.

  16. The Effects of Modern-Day Cropland and Pasture Management on Vegetation Fire: An Earth System Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabin, S. S.; Malyshev, S.; Shevliakova, E.; Pacala, S. W.

    2014-12-01

    Fire is a major component of the global carbon cycle, with some estimates of the associated emissions reaching 2.5 PgC/yr. This and the other impacts of biomass burning have driven efforts to improve its simulation in Earth system models. Recent global fire models usually include both bioclimatic and anthropogenic drivers of fire, with the latter (via population density and sometimes economic status) serving to increase or suppress burned area. Some models have added the representation of fire used in deforestation and cropland management, the extent and seasonal timing of which may not be accounted for by the usual approach to anthropogenic influence. Human land use can also limit fire by fragmenting landscapes, but this process is not included in most global models. Moreover, although people often use fire to manage grazing lands for livestock, these practices have not been explicitly modeled (except as performed by pre-industrial societies). This could be important for regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, where the seasonality of pasture burning tends to differ from that of other lands, potentially influencing savanna-forest dynamics. Recent efforts elucidating the effects of cropland and pasture on fire regimes at regional scales provide insight into these processes. Using this new understanding, we have developed a fire model with structurally distinct modules for burning of croplands, pasture, and primary and secondary lands, as well as fire use for deforestation. Parameters for each are rigorously constrained using remote-sensing observations of burned area. This structure allows us to disentangle agricultural practices and fragmentation effects from the endogenous processes driving fire on non-agricultural land, resulting in a better ability to simulate how fire works at large scales. This is critical for modeling the future of fire and all the parts of the Earth system that it affects, including vegetation distributions, nutrient cycling, and biosphere

  17. Modeling Earth Albedo for Satellites in Earth Orbit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bhanderi, Dan; Bak, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    Many satellite are influences by the Earthøs albedo, though very few model schemes exist.in order to predict this phenomenon. Earth albedo is often treated as noise, or ignored completely. When applying solar cells in the attitude hardware, Earth albedo can cause the attitude estimate to deviate...... with as much as 20 deg. Digital Sun sensors with Earth albedo correction in hardware exist, but are expensive. In addition, albedo estimates are necessary in thermal calculations and power budgets. We present a modeling scheme base4d on Eartht reflectance, measured by NASA's Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer......, in which the Earth Probe Satellite has recorded reflectivity data daily since mid 1996. The mean of these data can be used to calculate the Earth albedo given the positions of the satellite and the Sun. Our results show that the albedo varies highly with the solar angle to the satellite's field of view...

  18. On the roto-translatory internal motions of a three layer non-isobarycentric Earth model: a Lagrangian system approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escapa, Alberto; Fukushima, Toshio

    2010-05-01

    The internal structure of numerous celestial bodies are well approximated by means of a three layer model composed of a solid external layer, which encloses a fluid layer containing a solid body. An analysis of the inner dynamics of this model can provide some constrains on its rheological characteristics; an information that in many situations is only accessible through this indirect way. In addition, the understanding of this kind of motions, especially of those associated with a rigid displacement (a rotation or a relative translation) of the solid layers, is of primary importance to establish with enough accuracy the definition of the terrestrial reference frames. In the Earth case, most approaches to this formidable problem rely on the numerical solution of the respective elastic field equations, once they have been projected on a set of spherical harmonics functions of a given degree. Due to its intrinsic nature these numerical methods do not provide by themselves much insight into the internal dynamics, hence the interest to develop simpler dynamical models that reproduces the main characteristics of the motion and allows obtaining analytical approximate solutions of the problem. To this aim, and as a first stage, we have considered the internal dynamics of a simple Earth model made up of a spherical rigid mantle, an inviscid, homogeneous fluid outer core and a spherical rigid inner core. Initially the barycenters of all the constituents are located at the same point (isobarycentric model) and the whole system rotates with constant angular velocity around the figure axis. When this situation is perturbed both the motions of the fluid and of the solid layers depart from the reference uniform rotation. However, following Busse (1974) we have assumed that the motion of the mantle is the same as in the unperturbed state, and that the inner core dynamics only suffers a variation of oscillatory nature in the translational motion of its barycenter. As a consequence

  19. Earth System Modeling and Field Experiments in the Arctic-Boreal Zone - Report from a NASA Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sellers, Piers; Rienecker Michele; Randall, David; Frolking, Steve

    2012-01-01

    Early climate modeling studies predicted that the Arctic Ocean and surrounding circumpolar land masses would heat up earlier and faster than other parts of the planet as a result of greenhouse gas-induced climate change, augmented by the sea-ice albedo feedback effect. These predictions have been largely borne out by observations over the last thirty years. However, despite constant improvement, global climate models have greater difficulty in reproducing the current climate in the Arctic than elsewhere and the scatter between projections from different climate models is much larger in the Arctic than for other regions. Biogeochemical cycle (BGC) models indicate that the warming in the Arctic-Boreal Zone (ABZ) could lead to widespread thawing of the permafrost, along with massive releases of CO2 and CH4, and large-scale changes in the vegetation cover in the ABZ. However, the uncertainties associated with these BGC model predictions are even larger than those associated with the physical climate system models used to describe climate change. These deficiencies in climate and BGC models reflect, at least in part, an incomplete understanding of the Arctic climate system and can be related to inadequate observational data or analyses of existing data. A workshop was held at NASA/GSFC, May 22-24 2012, to assess the predictive capability of the models, prioritize the critical science questions; and make recommendations regarding new field experiments needed to improve model subcomponents. This presentation will summarize the findings and recommendations of the workshop, including the need for aircraft and flux tower measurements and extension of existing in-situ measurements to improve process modeling of both the physical climate and biogeochemical cycle systems. Studies should be directly linked to remote sensing investigations with a view to scaling up the improved process models to the Earth System Model scale. Data assimilation and observing system simulation

  20. Recent Progresses in Incorporating Human Land-Water Management into Global Land Surface Models Toward Their Integration into Earth System Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokhrel, Yadu N.; Hanasaki, Naota; Wada, Yoshihide; Kim, Hyungjun

    2016-01-01

    The global water cycle has been profoundly affected by human land-water management. As the changes in the water cycle on land can affect the functioning of a wide range of biophysical and biogeochemical processes of the Earth system, it is essential to represent human land-water management in Earth system models (ESMs). During the recent past, noteworthy progress has been made in large-scale modeling of human impacts on the water cycle but sufficient advancements have not yet been made in integrating the newly developed schemes into ESMs. This study reviews the progresses made in incorporating human factors in large-scale hydrological models and their integration into ESMs. The study focuses primarily on the recent advancements and existing challenges in incorporating human impacts in global land surface models (LSMs) as a way forward to the development of ESMs with humans as integral components, but a brief review of global hydrological models (GHMs) is also provided. The study begins with the general overview of human impacts on the water cycle. Then, the algorithms currently employed to represent irrigation, reservoir operation, and groundwater pumping are discussed. Next, methodological deficiencies in current modeling approaches and existing challenges are identified. Furthermore, light is shed on the sources of uncertainties associated with model parameterizations, grid resolution, and datasets used for forcing and validation. Finally, representing human land-water management in LSMs is highlighted as an important research direction toward developing integrated models using ESM frameworks for the holistic study of human-water interactions within the Earths system.

  1. Ocean (de)oxygenation from the Last Glacial Maximum to the twenty-first century: insights from Earth System models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bopp, L.; Resplandy, L.; Untersee, A.; Le Mezo, P.; Kageyama, M.

    2017-08-01

    All Earth System models project a consistent decrease in the oxygen content of oceans for the coming decades because of ocean warming, reduced ventilation and increased stratification. But large uncertainties for these future projections of ocean deoxygenation remain for the subsurface tropical oceans where the major oxygen minimum zones are located. Here, we combine global warming projections, model-based estimates of natural short-term variability, as well as data and model estimates of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ocean oxygenation to gain some insights into the major mechanisms of oxygenation changes across these different time scales. We show that the primary uncertainty on future ocean deoxygenation in the subsurface tropical oceans is in fact controlled by a robust compensation between decreasing oxygen saturation (O2sat) due to warming and decreasing apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) due to increased ventilation of the corresponding water masses. Modelled short-term natural variability in subsurface oxygen levels also reveals a compensation between O2sat and AOU, controlled by the latter. Finally, using a model simulation of the LGM, reproducing data-based reconstructions of past ocean (de)oxygenation, we show that the deoxygenation trend of the subsurface ocean during deglaciation was controlled by a combination of warming-induced decreasing O2sat and increasing AOU driven by a reduced ventilation of tropical subsurface waters. This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'.

  2. Ocean (de)oxygenation from the Last Glacial Maximum to the twenty-first century: insights from Earth System models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bopp, L; Resplandy, L; Untersee, A; Le Mezo, P; Kageyama, M

    2017-09-13

    All Earth System models project a consistent decrease in the oxygen content of oceans for the coming decades because of ocean warming, reduced ventilation and increased stratification. But large uncertainties for these future projections of ocean deoxygenation remain for the subsurface tropical oceans where the major oxygen minimum zones are located. Here, we combine global warming projections, model-based estimates of natural short-term variability, as well as data and model estimates of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ocean oxygenation to gain some insights into the major mechanisms of oxygenation changes across these different time scales. We show that the primary uncertainty on future ocean deoxygenation in the subsurface tropical oceans is in fact controlled by a robust compensation between decreasing oxygen saturation (O 2sat ) due to warming and decreasing apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) due to increased ventilation of the corresponding water masses. Modelled short-term natural variability in subsurface oxygen levels also reveals a compensation between O 2sat and AOU, controlled by the latter. Finally, using a model simulation of the LGM, reproducing data-based reconstructions of past ocean (de)oxygenation, we show that the deoxygenation trend of the subsurface ocean during deglaciation was controlled by a combination of warming-induced decreasing O 2sat and increasing AOU driven by a reduced ventilation of tropical subsurface waters.This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  3. How does the Redi parameter for mesoscale mixing impact global climate in an Earth System Model?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradal, Marie-Aude; Gnanadesikan, Anand

    2014-09-01

    A coupled climate model is used to examine the impact of an increase in the mixing due to mesoscale eddies on the global climate system. A sixfold increase in the Redi mixing coefficient ARedi, which is within the admissible range of variation, has the overall effect of warming the global-mean surface air and sea surface temperatures by more than 1°C. Locally, sea surface temperatures increase by up to 7°C in the North Pacific and by up to 4°C in the Southern Ocean, with corresponding impacts on the ice concentration and ice extent in polar regions. However, it is not clear that the changes in heat transport from tropics to poles associated with changing this coefficient are primarily responsible for these changes. We found that the changes in the transport of heat are often much smaller than changes in long-wave trapping and short-wave absorption. Additionally, changes in the advective and diffusive transport of heat toward the poles often oppose each other. However, we note that the poleward transport of salt increases near the surface as ARedi increases. We suggest a causal chain in which enhanced eddy stirring leads to increased high-latitude surface salinity reducing salt stratification and water column stability and enhancing convection, triggering two feedback loops. In one, deeper convection prevents sea ice formation, which decreases albedo, which increases SW absorption, further increasing SST and decreasing sea ice formation. In the other, increased SST and reduced sea ice allow for more water vapor in the atmosphere, trapping long-wave radiation. Destratifying the polar regions is thus a potential way in which changes in ocean circulation might warm the planet.

  4. Geo-Semantic Framework for Integrating Long-Tail Data and Model Resources for Advancing Earth System Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elag, M.; Kumar, P.

    2014-12-01

    Often, scientists and small research groups collect data, which target to address issues and have limited geographic or temporal range. A large number of such collections together constitute a large database that is of immense value to Earth Science studies. Complexity of integrating these data include heterogeneity in dimensions, coordinate systems, scales, variables, providers, users and contexts. They have been defined as long-tail data. Similarly, we use "long-tail models" to characterize a heterogeneous collection of models and/or modules developed for targeted problems by individuals and small groups, which together provide a large valuable collection. Complexity of integrating across these models include differing variable names and units for the same concept, model runs at different time steps and spatial resolution, use of differing naming and reference conventions, etc. Ability to "integrate long-tail models and data" will provide an opportunity for the interoperability and reusability of communities' resources, where not only models can be combined in a workflow, but each model will be able to discover and (re)use data in application specific context of space, time and questions. This capability is essential to represent, understand, predict, and manage heterogeneous and interconnected processes and activities by harnessing the complex, heterogeneous, and extensive set of distributed resources. Because of the staggering production rate of long-tail models and data resulting from the advances in computational, sensing, and information technologies, an important challenge arises: how can geoinformatics bring together these resources seamlessly, given the inherent complexity among model and data resources that span across various domains. We will present a semantic-based framework to support integration of "long-tail" models and data. This builds on existing technologies including: (i) SEAD (Sustainable Environmental Actionable Data) which supports curation

  5. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Keywords. Earth system model; Greenland; Antarctica; ice sheet; climate dynamics; surface mass balance. Abstract. Elaboration of a modern Earth system model (ESM) requires incorporation of ice sheet dynamics. Coupling of an ice sheet model (ICM) to an AOGCM is complicated by essential differences in spatial and ...

  6. Evaluation of Simulated Marine Aerosol Production Using the WaveWatchIII Prognostic Wave Model Coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model within the Community Earth System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Long, M. S. [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States). School of Engineering and Applied Sciences; Keene, William C. [Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA (United States). Dept. of Environmental Sciences; Zhang, J. [Univ. of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences; Reichl, B. [Univ. of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI (United States). Graduate School of Oceanography; Shi, Y. [Univ. of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences; Hara, T. [Univ. of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI (United States). Graduate School of Oceanography; Reid, J. S. [Naval Research Lab. (NRL), Monterey, CA (United States); Fox-Kemper, B. [Brown Univ., Providence, RI (United States). Earth, Environmental and Planetary Sciences; Craig, A. P. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Erickson, D. J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Computer Science and Mathematics Division; Ginis, I. [Univ. of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI (United States). Graduate School of Oceanography; Webb, A. [Univ. of Tokyo (Japan). Dept. of Ocean Technology, Policy, and Environment

    2016-11-08

    Primary marine aerosol (PMA) is emitted into the atmosphere via breaking wind waves on the ocean surface. Most parameterizations of PMA emissions use 10-meter wind speed as a proxy for wave action. This investigation coupled the 3rd generation prognostic WAVEWATCH-III wind-wave model within a coupled Earth system model (ESM) to drive PMA production using wave energy dissipation rate – analogous to whitecapping – in place of 10-meter wind speed. The wind speed parameterization did not capture basin-scale variability in relations between wind and wave fields. Overall, the wave parameterization did not improve comparison between simulated versus measured AOD or Na+, thus highlighting large remaining uncertainties in model physics. Results confirm the efficacy of prognostic wind-wave models for air-sea exchange studies coupled with laboratory- and field-based characterizations of the primary physical drivers of PMA production. No discernible correlations were evident between simulated PMA fields and observed chlorophyll or sea surface temperature.

  7. A global food demand model for the assessment of complex human-earth systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EDMONDS, JAMES A. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s, Joint Global Change Research Institute, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, USA; LINK, ROBERT [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s, Joint Global Change Research Institute, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, USA; WALDHOFF, STEPHANIE T. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s, Joint Global Change Research Institute, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, USA; CUI, RYNA [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s, Joint Global Change Research Institute, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, USA

    2017-11-01

    Demand for agricultural products is an important problem in climate change economics. Food consumption will shape and shaped by climate change and emissions mitigation policies through interactions with bioenergy and afforestation, two critical issues in meeting international climate goals such as two-degrees. We develop a model of food demand for staple and nonstaple commodities that evolves with changing incomes and prices. The model addresses a long-standing issue in estimating food demands, the evolution of demand relationships across large changes in income and prices. We discuss the model, some of its properties and limitations. We estimate parameter values using pooled cross-sectional-time-series observations and the Metropolis Monte Carlo method and cross-validate the model by estimating parameters using a subset of the observations and test its ability to project into the unused observations. Finally, we apply bias correction techniques borrowed from the climate-modeling community and report results.

  8. Statistical modeling of Earth's plasmasphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veibell, Victoir

    The behavior of plasma near Earth's geosynchronous orbit is of vital importance to both satellite operators and magnetosphere modelers because it also has a significant influence on energy transport, ion composition, and induced currents. The system is highly complex in both time and space, making the forecasting of extreme space weather events difficult. This dissertation examines the behavior and statistical properties of plasma mass density near geosynchronous orbit by using both linear and nonlinear models, as well as epoch analyses, in an attempt to better understand the physical processes that precipitates and drives its variations. It is shown that while equatorial mass density does vary significantly on an hourly timescale when a drop in the disturbance time scale index ( Dst) was observed, it does not vary significantly between the day of a Dst event onset and the day immediately following. It is also shown that increases in equatorial mass density were not, on average, preceded or followed by any significant change in the examined solar wind or geomagnetic variables, including Dst, despite prior results that considered a few selected events and found a notable influence. It is verified that equatorial mass density and and solar activity via the F10.7 index have a strong correlation, which is stronger over longer timescales such as 27 days than it is over an hourly timescale. It is then shown that this connection seems to affect the behavior of equatorial mass density most during periods of strong solar activity leading to large mass density reactions to Dst drops for high values of F10.7. It is also shown that equatorial mass density behaves differently before and after events based on the value of F10.7 at the onset of an equatorial mass density event or a Dst event, and that a southward interplanetary magnetic field at onset leads to slowed mass density growth after event onset. These behavioral differences provide insight into how solar and geomagnetic

  9. Causes of the large warm bias in the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone in the Norwegian Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koseki, Shunya; Keenlyside, Noel; Demissie, Teferi; Toniazzo, Thomas; Counillon, Francois; Bethke, Ingo; Ilicak, Mehmet; Shen, Mao-Lin

    2018-06-01

    We have investigated the causes of the sea surface temperature (SST) bias in the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone (ABFZ) of the southeastern Atlantic Ocean simulated by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). Similar to other coupled-models, NorESM has a warm SST bias in the ABFZ of up to 8 °C in the annual mean. Our analysis of NorESM reveals that a cyclonic surface wind bias over the ABFZ drives a locally excessively strong southward (0.05 m/s (relative to observation)) Angola Current displacing the ABFZ southward. A series of uncoupled stand-alone atmosphere and ocean model simulations are performed to investigate the cause of the coupled model bias. The stand-alone atmosphere model driven with observed SST exhibits a similar cyclonic surface circulation bias; while the stand-alone ocean model forced with the reanalysis data produces a warm SST in the ABFZ with a magnitude approximately half of that in the coupled NorESM simulation. An additional uncoupled sensitivity experiment shows that the atmospheric model's local negative surface wind curl generates anomalously strong Angola Current at the ocean surface. Consequently, this contributes to the warm SST bias in the ABFZ by 2 °C (compared to the reanalysis forced simulation). There is no evidence that local air-sea feedbacks among wind stress curl, SST, and sea level pressure (SLP) affect the ABFZ SST bias. Turbulent surface heat flux differences between coupled and uncoupled experiments explain the remaining 2 °C warm SST bias in NorESM. Ocean circulation, upwelling and turbulent heat flux errors all modulate the intensity and the seasonality of the ABFZ errors.

  10. Stomatal Conductance, Plant Hydraulics, and Multilayer Canopies: A New Paradigm for Earth System Models or Unnecessary Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonan, G. B.

    2016-12-01

    Soil moisture stress is a key regulator of canopy transpiration, the surface energy budget, and land-atmosphere coupling. Many land surface models used in Earth system models have an ad-hoc parameterization of soil moisture stress that decreases stomatal conductance with soil drying. Parameterization of soil moisture stress from more fundamental principles of plant hydrodynamics is a key research frontier for land surface models. While the biophysical and physiological foundations of such parameterizations are well-known, their best implementation in land surface models is less clear. Land surface models utilize a big-leaf canopy parameterization (or two big-leaves to represent the sunlit and shaded canopy) without vertical gradients in the canopy. However, there are strong biometeorological and physiological gradients in plant canopies. Are these gradients necessary to resolve? Here, I describe a vertically-resolved, multilayer canopy model that calculates leaf temperature and energy fluxes, photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, and leaf water potential at each level in the canopy. In this model, midday leaf water stress manifests in the upper canopy layers, which receive high amounts of solar radiation, have high leaf nitrogen and photosynthetic capacity, and have high stomatal conductance and transpiration rates (in the absence of leaf water stress). Lower levels in the canopy become water stressed in response to longer-term soil moisture drying. I examine the role of vertical gradients in the canopy microclimate (solar radiation, air temperature, vapor pressure, wind speed), structure (leaf area density), and physiology (leaf nitrogen, photosynthetic capacity, stomatal conductance) in determining above canopy fluxes and gradients of transpiration and leaf water potential within the canopy.

  11. Skills of General Circulation and Earth System Models in reproducing streamflow to the ocean: the case of Congo river

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santini, M.; Caporaso, L.

    2017-12-01

    Although the importance of water resources in the context of climate change, it is still difficult to correctly simulate the freshwater cycle over the land via General Circulation and Earth System Models (GCMs and ESMs). Existing efforts from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) were mainly devoted to the validation of atmospheric variables like temperature and precipitation, with low attention to discharge.Here we investigate the present-day performances of GCMs and ESMs participating to CMIP5 in simulating the discharge of the river Congo to the sea thanks to: i) the long-term availability of discharge data for the Kinshasa hydrological station representative of more than 95% of the water flowing in the whole catchment; and ii) the River's still low influence by human intervention, which enables comparison with the (mostly) natural streamflow simulated within CMIP5.Our findings suggest how most of models appear overestimating the streamflow in terms of seasonal cycle, especially in the late winter and spring, while overestimation and variability across models are lower in late summer. Weighted ensemble means are also calculated, based on simulations' performances given by several metrics, showing some improvements of results.Although simulated inter-monthly and inter-annual percent anomalies do not appear significantly different from those in observed data, when translated into well consolidated indicators of drought attributes (frequency, magnitude, timing, duration), usually adopted for more immediate communication to stakeholders and decision makers, such anomalies can be misleading.These inconsistencies produce incorrect assessments towards water management planning and infrastructures (e.g. dams or irrigated areas), especially if models are used instead of measurements, as in case of ungauged basins or for basins with insufficient data, as well as when relying on models for future estimates without a preliminary quantification of model biases.

  12. Causes of the large warm bias in the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone in the Norwegian Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koseki, Shunya; Keenlyside, Noel; Demissie, Teferi; Toniazzo, Thomas; Counillon, Francois; Bethke, Ingo; Ilicak, Mehmet; Shen, Mao-Lin

    2017-09-01

    We have investigated the causes of the sea surface temperature (SST) bias in the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone (ABFZ) of the southeastern Atlantic Ocean simulated by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). Similar to other coupled-models, NorESM has a warm SST bias in the ABFZ of up to 8 °C in the annual mean. Our analysis of NorESM reveals that a cyclonic surface wind bias over the ABFZ drives a locally excessively strong southward (0.05 m/s (relative to observation)) Angola Current displacing the ABFZ southward. A series of uncoupled stand-alone atmosphere and ocean model simulations are performed to investigate the cause of the coupled model bias. The stand-alone atmosphere model driven with observed SST exhibits a similar cyclonic surface circulation bias; while the stand-alone ocean model forced with the reanalysis data produces a warm SST in the ABFZ with a magnitude approximately half of that in the coupled NorESM simulation. An additional uncoupled sensitivity experiment shows that the atmospheric model's local negative surface wind curl generates anomalously strong Angola Current at the ocean surface. Consequently, this contributes to the warm SST bias in the ABFZ by 2 °C (compared to the reanalysis forced simulation). There is no evidence that local air-sea feedbacks among wind stress curl, SST, and sea level pressure (SLP) affect the ABFZ SST bias. Turbulent surface heat flux differences between coupled and uncoupled experiments explain the remaining 2 °C warm SST bias in NorESM. Ocean circulation, upwelling and turbulent heat flux errors all modulate the intensity and the seasonality of the ABFZ errors.

  13. Rethinking plant functional types in Earth System Models: pan-tropical analysis of tree survival across environmental gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, D. J.; Needham, J.; Xu, C.; Davies, S. J.; Bunyavejchewin, S.; Giardina, C. P.; Condit, R.; Cordell, S.; Litton, C. M.; Hubbell, S.; Kassim, A. R. B.; Shawn, L. K. Y.; Nasardin, M. B.; Ong, P.; Ostertag, R.; Sack, L.; Tan, S. K. S.; Yap, S.; McDowell, N. G.; McMahon, S.

    2016-12-01

    Terrestrial carbon cycling is a function of the growth and survival of trees. Current model representations of tree growth and survival at a global scale rely on coarse plant functional traits that are parameterized very generally. In view of the large biodiversity in the tropical forests, it is important that we account for the functional diversity in order to better predict tropical forest responses to future climate changes. Several next generation Earth System Models are moving towards a size-structured, trait-based approach to modelling vegetation globally, but the challenge of which and how many traits are necessary to capture forest complexity remains. Additionally, the challenge of collecting sufficient trait data to describe the vast species richness of tropical forests is enormous. We propose a more fundamental approach to these problems by characterizing forests by their patterns of survival. We expect our approach to distill real-world tree survival into a reasonable number of functional types. Using 10 large-area tropical forest plots that span geographic, edaphic and climatic gradients, we model tree survival as a function of tree size for hundreds of species. We found surprisingly few categories of size-survival functions emerge. This indicates some fundamental strategies at play across diverse forests to constrain the range of possible size-survival functions. Initial cluster analysis indicates that four to eight functional forms are necessary to describe variation in size-survival relations. Temporal variation in size-survival functions can be related to local environmental variation, allowing us to parameterize how demographically similar groups of species respond to perturbations in the ecosystem. We believe this methodology will yield a synthetic approach to classifying forest systems that will greatly reduce uncertainty and complexity in global vegetation models.

  14. Final Report Collaborative Project: Improving the Representation of Coastal and Estuarine Processes in Earth System Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bryan, Frank [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT (United States); Dennis, John [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT (United States); MacCready, Parker [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT (United States); Whitney, Michael M. [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT (United States)

    2016-09-30

    This project aimed to improve long term global climate simulations by resolving and enhancing the representation of the processes involved in the cycling of freshwater through estuaries and coastal regions. This was a collaborative multi-institution project consisting of physical oceanographers, climate model developers, and computational scientists. It specifically targeted the DOE objectives of advancing simulation and predictive capability of climate models through improvements in resolution and physical process representation.

  15. Collaborative Project: Improving the Representation of Coastal and Estuarine Processes in Earth System Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bryan, Frank [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); Dennis, John [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); MacCready, Parker [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); Whitney, Michael [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)

    2016-10-20

    This project aimed to improve long term global climate simulations by resolving and enhancing the representation of the processes involved in the cycling of freshwater through estuaries and coastal regions. This was a collaborative multi-institution project consisting of physical oceanographers, climate model developers, and computational scientists. It specifically targeted the DOE objectives of advancing simulation and predictive capability of climate models through improvements in resolution and physical process representation.

  16. Predicting Land-Ice Retreat and Sea-Level Rise with the Community Earth System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lipscomb, William [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-06-19

    Coastal stakeholders need defensible predictions of 21st century sea-level rise (SLR). IPCC assessments suggest 21st century SLR of {approx}0.5 m under aggressive emission scenarios. Semi-empirical models project SLR of {approx}1 m or more by 2100. Although some sea-level contributions are fairly well constrained by models, others are highly uncertain. Recent studies suggest a potential large contribution ({approx}0.5 m/century) from the marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet, linked to changes in Southern Ocean wind stress. To assess the likelihood of fast retreat of marine ice sheets, we need coupled ice-sheet/ocean models that do not yet exist (but are well under way). CESM is uniquely positioned to provide integrated, physics based sea-level predictions.

  17. Characterizing post-industrial changes in the ocean carbon cycle in an Earth system model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matsumoto, Katsumi; Tokos, Kathy S.; Chikamoto, Megumi O. (Geology and Geophysics, Univ. of Minnesota, MN (United States)), e-mail: katsumi@umn.edu; Ridgwell, Andy (School of Geographical Sciences, Univ. of Bristol, Bristol (United Kingdom))

    2010-10-22

    Understanding the oceanic uptake of carbon from the atmosphere is essential for better constraining the global budget, as well as for predicting the air-borne fraction of CO{sub 2} emissions and thus degree of climate change. Gaining this understanding is difficult, because the 'natural' carbon cycle, the part of the global carbon cycle unaltered by CO{sub 2} emissions, also responds to climate change and ocean acidification. Using a global climate model of intermediate complexity, we assess the evolution of the natural carbon cycle over the next few centuries. We find that physical mechanisms, particularly Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and gas solubility, alter the natural carbon cycle the most and lead to a significant reduction in the overall oceanic carbon uptake. Important biological mechanisms include reduced organic carbon export production due to reduced nutrient supply, increased organic carbon production due to higher temperatures and reduced CaCO{sub 3} production due to increased ocean acidification. A large ensemble of model experiments indicates that the most important source of uncertainty in ocean uptake projections in the near term future are the upper ocean vertical diffusivity and gas exchange coefficient. By year 2300, the model's climate sensitivity replaces these two and becomes the dominant factor as global warming continues

  18. Temporal Arctic longwave surface emissivity feedbacks in the Community Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, C.; Feldman, D.; Huang, X.; Flanner, M.; Yang, P.; Chen, X.

    2017-12-01

    We have investigated how the inclusion of realistic and consistent surface emissivity in both land-surface and atmospheric components of the CESM coupled-climate model affects a wide range of climate variables. We did this by replacing the unit emissivity values in RRTMG_LW for water, fine-grained snow, and desert scenes with spectral emissivity values, and by replacing broadband emissivity values in surface components with the Planck-curve weighted counterparts. We find that this harmonized treatment of surface emissivity within CESM can be important for reducing high-latitude temperature biases. We also find that short-term effects of atmospheric dynamics and spectral information need to be considered to understand radiative effects in higher detail, and are possible with radiative kernels computed for every grid and time point for the entire model integration period. We find that conventional climatological feedback calculations indicate that sea-ice emissivity feedback is positive in sign, but that the radiative effects of the difference in emissivity between frozen and unfrozen surfaces exhibit seasonal dependence. Furthermore, this seasonality itself exhibits meridional asymmetry due to differences in sea-ice response to climate forcing between the Arctic and the Antarctic. In the Arctic, this seasonal, temporally higher order analysis exhibits increasing outgoing surface emissivity radiative response in a warming climate. While the sea-ice emissivity feedback and seasonal sea-ice emissivity radiative response amplitudes are a few percent of surface albedo feedbacks, the feedback analysis methods outlined in this work demonstrate that spatially and temporally localized feedback analysis can give insight into the mechanisms at work on those scales which differ in amplitude and sign from conventional climatological analyses. We note that the inclusion of this realistic physics leads to improved agreement between CESM model results and Arctic surface

  19. The role of land surface dynamics in glacial inception: a study with the UVic Earth System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meissner, K.J.; Weaver, A.J.; Matthews, H.D. [School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria (Canada); Cox, P.M. [Hadley Centre, Meteorological Office, Bracknell (United Kingdom)

    2003-12-01

    The first results of the UVic Earth System Model coupled to a land surface scheme and a dynamic global vegetation model are presented in this study. In the first part the present day climate simulation is discussed and compared to observations. We then compare a simulation of an ice age inception (forced with 116 ka BP orbital parameters and an atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration of 240 ppm) with a preindustrial run (present day orbital parameters, atmospheric [CO{sub 2}] = 280 ppm). Emphasis is placed on the vegetation's response to the combined changes in solar radiation and atmospheric CO{sub 2} level. A southward shift of the northern treeline as well as a global decrease in vegetation carbon is observed in the ice age inception run. In tropical regions, up to 88% of broadleaf trees are replaced by shrubs and C{sub 4} grasses. These changes in vegetation cover have a remarkable effect on the global climate: land related feedbacks double the atmospheric cooling during the ice age inception as well as the reduction of the meridional overturning in the North Atlantic. The introduction of vegetation related feedbacks also increases the surface area with perennial snow significantly. (orig.)

  20. An improved ENSO simulation by representing chlorophyll-induced climate feedback in the NCAR Community Earth System Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Xianbiao; Zhang, Rong-Hua; Gao, Chuan; Zhu, Jieshun

    2017-12-07

    The El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO) simulated in the Community Earth System Model of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR CESM) is much stronger than in reality. Here, satellite data are used to derive a statistical relationship between interannual variations in oceanic chlorophyll (CHL) and sea surface temperature (SST), which is then incorporated into the CESM to represent oceanic chlorophyll -induced climate feedback in the tropical Pacific. Numerical runs with and without the feedback (referred to as feedback and non-feedback runs) are performed and compared with each other. The ENSO amplitude simulated in the feedback run is more accurate than that in the non-feedback run; quantitatively, the Niño3 SST index is reduced by 35% when the feedback is included. The underlying processes are analyzed and the results show that interannual CHL anomalies exert a systematic modulating effect on the solar radiation penetrating into the subsurface layers, which induces differential heating in the upper ocean that affects vertical mixing and thus SST. The statistical modeling approach proposed in this work offers an effective and economical way for improving climate simulations.

  1. From laboratory manipulations to Earth system models: scaling calcification impacts of ocean acidification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Young

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The observed variation in the calcification responses of coccolithophores to changes in carbonate chemistry paints a highly incoherent picture, particularly for the most commonly cultured "species", Emiliania huxleyi. The disparity between magnitude and potentially even sign of the calcification change under simulated end-of-century ocean surface chemical changes (higher pCO2, lower pH and carbonate saturation, raises challenges to quantifying future carbon cycle impacts and feedbacks because it introduces significant uncertainty in parameterizations used for global models. Here we compile the results of coccolithophore carbonate chemistry manipulation experiments and review how ocean carbon cycle models have attempted to bridge the gap from experiments to global impacts. Although we can rule out methodological differences in how carbonate chemistry is altered as introducing an experimental bias, the absence of a consistent calcification response implies that model parameterizations based on small and differing subsets of experimental observations will lead to varying estimates for the global carbon cycle impacts of ocean acidification. We highlight two pertinent observations that might help: (1 the degree of coccolith calcification varies substantially, both between species and within species across different genotypes, and (2 the calcification response across mesocosm and shipboard incubations has so-far been found to be relatively consistent. By analogy to descriptions of plankton growth rate vs. temperature, such as the "Eppley curve", which seek to encapsulate the net community response via progressive assemblage change rather than the response of any single species, we posit that progressive future ocean acidification may drive a transition in dominance from more to less heavily calcified coccolithophores. Assemblage shift may be more important to integrated community calcification response than species

  2. Spanish Earth Observation Satellite System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borges, A.; Cerezo, F.; Fernandez, M.; Lomba, J.; Lopez, M.; Moreno, J.; Neira, A.; Quintana, C.; Torres, J.; Trigo, R.; Urena, J.; Vega, E.; Vez, E.

    2010-12-01

    The Spanish Ministry of Industry, Tourism and Trade (MITyC) and the Ministry of Defense (MoD) signed an agreement in 2007 for the development of a "Spanish Earth Observation Satellite System" based, in first instance, on two satellites: a high resolution optical satellite, called SEOSAT/Ingenio, and a radar satellite based on SAR technology, called SEOSAR/Paz. SEOSAT/Ingenio is managed by MITyC through the Centre for the Development of Industrial Technology (CDTI), with technical and contractual support from the European Space Agency (ESA). HISDESA T together with the Spanish Instituto Nacional de Técnica Aeroespacial (INTA, National Institute for Aerospace Technology) will be responsible for the in-orbit operation and the commercial operation of both satellites, and for the technical management of SEOSAR/Paz on behalf of the MoD. In both cases EADS CASA Espacio (ECE) is the prime contractor leading the industrial consortia. The ground segment development will be assigned to a Spanish consortium. This system is the most important contribution of Spain to the European Programme Global Monitoring for Environment and Security, GMES. This paper presents the Spanish Earth Observation Satellite System focusing on SEOSA T/Ingenio Programme and with special emphasis in the potential contribution to the ESA Third Party Missions Programme and to the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security initiative (GMES) Data Access.

  3. Exploring the isopycnal mixing and helium–heat paradoxes in a suite of Earth system models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Gnanadesikan

    2015-07-01

    this paper we show that this is not the case. In a suite of models with different spatially constant and spatially varying values of ARedi the distribution of radiocarbon and helium isotopes is sensitive to the value of ARedi. However, away from strong helium sources in the southeastern Pacific, the relationship between the two is not sensitive, indicating that large-scale advection is the limiting process for removing helium and radiocarbon from the deep ocean. The helium isotopes, in turn, suggest a higher value of ARedi below the thermocline than is seen in theoretical parameterizations based on baroclinic growth rates. We argue that a key part of resolving the isopycnal mixing paradox is to abandon the idea that ARedi has a direct relationship to local baroclinic instability and to the so-called "thickness" mixing coefficient AGM.

  4. Biogeochemical Responses and Feedbacks to Climate Change: Synthetic Meta-Analyses Relevant to Earth System Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    van Gestel, Natasja; Jan van Groenigen, Kees; Osenberg, Craig; Dukes, Jeffrey; Dijkstra, Paul

    2018-03-20

    This project examined the sensitivity of carbon in land ecosystems to environmental change, focusing on carbon contained in soil, and the role of carbon-nitrogen interactions in regulating ecosystem carbon storage. The project used a combination of empirical measurements, mathematical models, and statistics to partition effects of climate change on soil into processes enhancing soil carbon and processes through which it decomposes. By synthesizing results from experiments around the world, the work provided novel insight on ecological controls and responses across broad spatial and temporal scales. The project developed new approaches in meta-analysis using principles of element mass balance and large datasets to derive metrics of ecosystem responses to environmental change. The project used meta-analysis to test how nutrients regulate responses of ecosystems to elevated CO2 and warming, in particular responses of nitrogen fixation, critical for regulating long-term C balance.

  5. Description and Evaluation of IAP-AACM: A Global-regional Aerosol Chemistry Model for the Earth System Model CAS-ESM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Y.; Chen, X.

    2017-12-01

    We present a first description and evaluation of the IAP Atmospheric Aerosol Chemistry Model (IAP-AACM) which has been integrated into the earth system model CAS-ESM. In this way it is possible to research into interaction of clouds and aerosol by its two-way coupling with the IAP Atmospheric General Circulation Model (IAP-AGCM). The model has a nested global-regional grid based on the Global Environmental Atmospheric Transport Model (GEATM) and the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (NAQPMS). The AACM provides two optional gas chemistry schemes, the CBM-Z gas chemistry as well as a sulfur oxidize box designed specifically for the CAS-ESM. Now the model driven by AGCM has been applied to a 1-year simulation of tropospheric chemistry both on global and regional scales for 2014, and been evaluated against various observation datasets, including aerosol precursor gas concentration, aerosol mass and number concentrations. Furthermore, global budgets in AACM are compared with other global aerosol models. Generally, the AACM simulations are within the range of other global aerosol model predictions, and the model has a reasonable agreement with observations of gases and particles concentration both on global and regional scales.

  6. Future ocean acidification in the Canada Basin and surrounding Arctic Ocean from CMIP5 earth system models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steiner, N. S.; Christian, J. R.; Six, K. D.; Yamamoto, A.; Yamamoto-Kawai, M.

    2014-01-01

    Six Earth system models that include an interactive carbon cycle and have contributed results to the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are evaluated with respect to Arctic Ocean acidification. Projections under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 and 4.5 consistently show reductions in the bidecadal mean surface pH from about 8.1 in 1986-2005 to 7.7/7.9 by 2066-2085 in the Canada Basin, closely linked to reductions in the calcium carbonate saturation state ΩA,C from about 1.4 (2.0) to 0.7 (1.0) for aragonite (calcite) for RCP8.5. The large but opposite effects of dilution and biological drawdown of DIC and dilution of alkalinity lead to a small seasonal amplitude change in Ω, as well as intermodel differences in the timing and sign of the summer minimum. The Canada Basin shows a characteristic layering in Ω: affected by ice melt and inflowing Pacific water, shallow undersaturated layers form at the surface and subsurface, creating a shallow saturation horizon which expands from the surface downward. This is in addition to the globally observed deep saturation horizon which is continuously expanding upward with increasing CO2 uptake. The Eurasian Basin becomes undersaturated much later than the rest of the Arctic. These CMIP5 model results strengthen earlier findings, although large intermodel differences remain: Below 200 m ΩA varies by up to 1.0 in the Canada Basin and the deep saturation horizon varies from 2000 to 4000 m among the models. Differences of projected acidification changes are primarily related to sea ice retreat and responses of wind mixing and stratification.

  7. GPU-accelerated atmospheric chemical kinetics in the ECHAM/MESSy (EMAC) Earth system model (version 2.52)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvanos, Michail; Christoudias, Theodoros

    2017-10-01

    This paper presents an application of GPU accelerators in Earth system modeling. We focus on atmospheric chemical kinetics, one of the most computationally intensive tasks in climate-chemistry model simulations. We developed a software package that automatically generates CUDA kernels to numerically integrate atmospheric chemical kinetics in the global climate model ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC), used to study climate change and air quality scenarios. A source-to-source compiler outputs a CUDA-compatible kernel by parsing the FORTRAN code generated by the Kinetic PreProcessor (KPP) general analysis tool. All Rosenbrock methods that are available in the KPP numerical library are supported.Performance evaluation, using Fermi and Pascal CUDA-enabled GPU accelerators, shows achieved speed-ups of 4. 5 × and 20. 4 × , respectively, of the kernel execution time. A node-to-node real-world production performance comparison shows a 1. 75 × speed-up over the non-accelerated application using the KPP three-stage Rosenbrock solver. We provide a detailed description of the code optimizations used to improve the performance including memory optimizations, control code simplification, and reduction of idle time. The accuracy and correctness of the accelerated implementation are evaluated by comparing to the CPU-only code of the application. The median relative difference is found to be less than 0.000000001 % when comparing the output of the accelerated kernel the CPU-only code.The approach followed, including the computational workload division, and the developed GPU solver code can potentially be used as the basis for hardware acceleration of numerous geoscientific models that rely on KPP for atmospheric chemical kinetics applications.

  8. Spatial representation of organic carbon and active-layer thickness of high latitude soils in CMIP5 earth system models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mishra, Umakant; Drewniak, Beth; Jastrow, Julie D.; Matamala, Roser M.; Vitharana, U. W. A.

    2017-08-01

    Soil properties such as soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and active-layer thickness are used in earth system models (F.SMs) to predict anthropogenic and climatic impacts on soil carbon dynamics, future changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and associated climate changes in the permafrost regions. Accurate representation of spatial and vertical distribution of these soil properties in ESMs is a prerequisite for redudng existing uncertainty in predicting carbon-climate feedbacks. We compared the spatial representation of SOC stocks and active-layer thicknesses predicted by the coupled Modellntercomparison Project Phase 5 { CMIP5) ESMs with those predicted from geospatial predictions, based on observation data for the state of Alaska, USA. For the geospatial modeling. we used soil profile observations {585 for SOC stocks and 153 for active-layer thickness) and environmental variables (climate, topography, land cover, and surficial geology types) and generated fine-resolution (50-m spatial resolution) predictions of SOC stocks (to 1-m depth) and active-layer thickness across Alaska. We found large inter-quartile range (2.5-5.5 m) in predicted active-layer thickness of CMIP5 modeled results and small inter-quartile range (11.5-22 kg m-2) in predicted SOC stocks. The spatial coefficient of variability of active-layer thickness and SOC stocks were lower in CMIP5 predictions compared to our geospatial estimates when gridded at similar spatial resolutions (24.7 compared to 30% and 29 compared to 38%, respectively). However, prediction errors. when calculated for independent validation sites, were several times larger in ESM predictions compared to geospatial predictions. Primaly factors leading to observed differences were ( 1) lack of spatial heterogeneity in ESM predictions, (2) differences in assumptions concerning environmental controls, and (3) the absence of pedogenic processes in ESM model structures. Our results suggest that efforts to incorporate

  9. GPU-accelerated atmospheric chemical kinetics in the ECHAM/MESSy (EMAC Earth system model (version 2.52

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Alvanos

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an application of GPU accelerators in Earth system modeling. We focus on atmospheric chemical kinetics, one of the most computationally intensive tasks in climate–chemistry model simulations. We developed a software package that automatically generates CUDA kernels to numerically integrate atmospheric chemical kinetics in the global climate model ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC, used to study climate change and air quality scenarios. A source-to-source compiler outputs a CUDA-compatible kernel by parsing the FORTRAN code generated by the Kinetic PreProcessor (KPP general analysis tool. All Rosenbrock methods that are available in the KPP numerical library are supported.Performance evaluation, using Fermi and Pascal CUDA-enabled GPU accelerators, shows achieved speed-ups of 4. 5 ×  and 20. 4 × , respectively, of the kernel execution time. A node-to-node real-world production performance comparison shows a 1. 75 ×  speed-up over the non-accelerated application using the KPP three-stage Rosenbrock solver. We provide a detailed description of the code optimizations used to improve the performance including memory optimizations, control code simplification, and reduction of idle time. The accuracy and correctness of the accelerated implementation are evaluated by comparing to the CPU-only code of the application. The median relative difference is found to be less than 0.000000001 % when comparing the output of the accelerated kernel the CPU-only code.The approach followed, including the computational workload division, and the developed GPU solver code can potentially be used as the basis for hardware acceleration of numerous geoscientific models that rely on KPP for atmospheric chemical kinetics applications.

  10. Investigating the Role of Biogeochemical Processes in the Northern High Latitudes on Global Climate Feedbacks Using an Efficient Scalable Earth System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jain, Atul K. [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States)

    2016-09-14

    The overall objectives of this DOE funded project is to combine scientific and computational challenges in climate modeling by expanding our understanding of the biogeophysical-biogeochemical processes and their interactions in the northern high latitudes (NHLs) using an earth system modeling (ESM) approach, and by adopting an adaptive parallel runtime system in an ESM to achieve efficient and scalable climate simulations through improved load balancing algorithms.

  11. Earth Systems Science: An Analytic Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finley, Fred N.; Nam, Younkeyong; Oughton, John

    2011-01-01

    Earth Systems Science (ESS) is emerging rapidly as a discipline and is being used to replace the older earth science education that has been taught as unrelated disciplines--geology, meteorology, astronomy, and oceanography. ESS is complex and is based on the idea that the earth can be understood as a set of interacting natural and social systems.…

  12. Earth Observing System Covariance Realism Updates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ojeda Romero, Juan A.; Miguel, Fred

    2017-01-01

    This presentation will be given at the International Earth Science Constellation Mission Operations Working Group meetings June 13-15, 2017 to discuss the Earth Observing System Covariance Realism updates.

  13. A construction of empiric model of dependence of cost of the dried agricultural earths is from the cost of the reclamative system

    OpenAIRE

    VELESIK T.A.

    2011-01-01

    An empiric model which represents dependence between the cost of the dried agricultural earths and cost of the reclamative systems is offered. The coefficient of correlation is expected and determination, the values of which testify that between factors there is close connection.

  14. Description and verification of a U.S. Naval Research Lab's loosely coupled data assimilation system for the Navy's Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, N. P.; Metzger, E. J.; Smedstad, O. M.; Ruston, B. C.; Wallcraft, A. J.; Whitcomb, T.; Ridout, J. A.; Zamudio, L.; Posey, P.; Reynolds, C. A.; Richman, J. G.; Phelps, M.

    2017-12-01

    The Naval Research Laboratory is developing an Earth System Model (NESM) to provide global environmental information to meet Navy and Department of Defense (DoD) operations and planning needs from the upper atmosphere to under the sea. This system consists of a global atmosphere, ocean, ice, wave, and land prediction models and the individual models include: atmosphere - NAVy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM); ocean - HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM); sea ice - Community Ice CodE (CICE); WAVEWATCH III™; and land - NAVGEM Land Surface Model (LSM). Data assimilation is currently loosely coupled between the atmosphere component using a 6-hour update cycle in the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System - Accelerated Representer (NAVDAS-AR) and the ocean/ice components using a 24-hour update cycle in the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) with 3 hours of incremental updating. This presentation will describe the US Navy's coupled forecast model, the loosely coupled data assimilation, and compare results against stand-alone atmosphere and ocean/ice models. In particular, we will focus on the unique aspects of this modeling system, which includes an eddy resolving ocean model and challenges associated with different update-windows and solvers for the data assimilation in the atmosphere and ocean. Results will focus on typical operational diagnostics for atmosphere, ocean, and ice analyses including 500 hPa atmospheric height anomalies, low-level winds, temperature/salinity ocean depth profiles, ocean acoustical proxies, sea ice edge, and sea ice drift. Overall, the global coupled system is performing with comparable skill to the stand-alone systems.

  15. Carbon stocks and fluxes in the high latitudes: using site-level data to evaluate Earth system models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadburn, Sarah E.; Krinner, Gerhard; Porada, Philipp; Bartsch, Annett; Beer, Christian; Belelli Marchesini, Luca; Boike, Julia; Ekici, Altug; Elberling, Bo; Friborg, Thomas; Hugelius, Gustaf; Johansson, Margareta; Kuhry, Peter; Kutzbach, Lars; Langer, Moritz; Lund, Magnus; Parmentier, Frans-Jan W.; Peng, Shushi; Van Huissteden, Ko; Wang, Tao; Westermann, Sebastian; Zhu, Dan; Burke, Eleanor J.

    2017-11-01

    It is important that climate models can accurately simulate the terrestrial carbon cycle in the Arctic due to the large and potentially labile carbon stocks found in permafrost-affected environments, which can lead to a positive climate feedback, along with the possibility of future carbon sinks from northward expansion of vegetation under climate warming. Here we evaluate the simulation of tundra carbon stocks and fluxes in three land surface schemes that each form part of major Earth system models (JSBACH, Germany; JULES, UK; ORCHIDEE, France). We use a site-level approach in which comprehensive, high-frequency datasets allow us to disentangle the importance of different processes. The models have improved physical permafrost processes and there is a reasonable correspondence between the simulated and measured physical variables, including soil temperature, soil moisture and snow. We show that if the models simulate the correct leaf area index (LAI), the standard C3 photosynthesis schemes produce the correct order of magnitude of carbon fluxes. Therefore, simulating the correct LAI is one of the first priorities. LAI depends quite strongly on climatic variables alone, as we see by the fact that the dynamic vegetation model can simulate most of the differences in LAI between sites, based almost entirely on climate inputs. However, we also identify an influence from nutrient limitation as the LAI becomes too large at some of the more nutrient-limited sites. We conclude that including moss as well as vascular plants is of primary importance to the carbon budget, as moss contributes a large fraction to the seasonal CO2 flux in nutrient-limited conditions. Moss photosynthetic activity can be strongly influenced by the moisture content of moss, and the carbon uptake can be significantly different from vascular plants with a similar LAI. The soil carbon stocks depend strongly on the rate of input of carbon from the vegetation to the soil, and our analysis suggests that

  16. Long-term ice sheet-climate interactions under anthropogenic greenhouse forcing simulated with a complex Earth System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vizcaino, Miren [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); University of California, Department of Geography, Berkeley, CA (United States); Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Maier-Reimer, Ernst [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Groeger, Matthias [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel (Germany); Schurgers, Guy [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Lund University, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund (Sweden); Winguth, Arne M.E. [Center for Climatic Research, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Madison (United States)

    2008-11-15

    Several multi-century and multi-millennia simulations have been performed with a complex Earth System Model (ESM) for different anthropogenic climate change scenarios in order to study the long-term evolution of sea level and the impact of ice sheet changes on the climate system. The core of the ESM is a coupled coarse-resolution Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM). Ocean biogeochemistry, land vegetation and ice sheets are included as components of the ESM. The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) decays in all simulations, while the Antarctic ice sheet contributes negatively to sea level rise, due to enhanced storage of water caused by larger snowfall rates. Freshwater flux increases from Greenland are one order of magnitude smaller than total freshwater flux increases into the North Atlantic basin (the sum of the contribution from changes in precipitation, evaporation, run-off and Greenland meltwater) and do not play an important role in changes in the strength of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (NAMOC). The regional climate change associated with weakening/collapse of the NAMOC drastically reduces the decay rate of the GrIS. The dynamical changes due to GrIS topography modification driven by mass balance changes act first as a negative feedback for the decay of the ice sheet, but accelerate the decay at a later stage. The increase of surface temperature due to reduced topographic heights causes a strong acceleration of the decay of the ice sheet in the long term. Other feedbacks between ice sheet and atmosphere are not important for the mass balance of the GrIS until it is reduced to 3/4 of the original size. From then, the reduction in the albedo of Greenland strongly accelerates the decay of the ice sheet. (orig.)

  17. The mechanism behind internally generated centennial-to-millennial scale climate variability in an earth system model of intermediate complexity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Friedrich

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available The mechanism triggering centennial-to-millennial-scale variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC in the earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM is investigated. It is found that for several climate boundary conditions such as low obliquity values (~22.1° or LGM-albedo, internally generated centennial-to-millennial-scale variability occurs in the North Atlantic region. Stochastic excitations of the density-driven overturning circulation in the Nordic Seas can create regional sea-ice anomalies and a subsequent reorganization of the atmospheric circulation. The resulting remote atmospheric anomalies over the Hudson Bay can release freshwater pulses into the Labrador Sea and significantly increase snow fall in this region leading to a subsequent reduction of convective activity. The millennial-scale AMOC oscillations disappear if LGM bathymetry (with closed Hudson Bay is prescribed or if freshwater pulses are suppressed artificially. Furthermore, our study documents the process of the AMOC recovery as well as the global marine and terrestrial carbon cycle response to centennial-to-millennial-scale AMOC variability.

  18. Responses of the ocean carbon cycle to climate change: Results from an earth system climate model simulation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Shuang-Jing; CAO Long; LI Na

    2014-01-01

    Based on simulations using the University of Victoria’s Earth System Climate Model, we analyzed the responses of the ocean carbon cycle to increasing atmospheric CO2 levels and climate change from 1800 to 2500 following the RCP 8.5 scenario and its extension. Compared to simulations without climate change, the simulation with a climate sensitivity of 3.0 K shows that in 2100, due to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated sea surface temperature increases by 2.7 K, the intensity of the North Atlantic deep water formation reduces by4.5 Sv, and the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 decreases by 0.8 Pg C. Climate change is also found to have a large effect on the North Atlantic’s ocean column inventory of anthropogenic CO2. Between the years 1800 and 2500, compared with the simulation with no climate change, the simulation with climate change causes a reduction in the total anthropogenic CO2 column inventory over the entire ocean and in North Atlantic by 23.1% and 32.0%, respectively. A set of simulations with climate sensitivity variations from 0.5 K to 4.5 K show that with greater climate sensitivity climate change would have a greater effect in reducing the ocean’s ability to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere.

  19. Full-field initialized decadal predictions with the MPI earth system model: an initial shock in the North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kröger, Jürgen; Pohlmann, Holger; Sienz, Frank; Marotzke, Jochem; Baehr, Johanna; Köhl, Armin; Modali, Kameswarrao; Polkova, Iuliia; Stammer, Detlef; Vamborg, Freja S. E.; Müller, Wolfgang A.

    2017-12-01

    Our decadal climate prediction system, which is based on the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model, is initialized from a coupled assimilation run that utilizes nudging to selected state parameters from reanalyses. We apply full-field nudging in the atmosphere and either full-field or anomaly nudging in the ocean. Full fields from two different ocean reanalyses are considered. This comparison of initialization strategies focuses on the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (SPG) region, where the transition from anomaly to full-field nudging reveals large differences in prediction skill for sea surface temperature and ocean heat content (OHC). We show that nudging of temperature and salinity in the ocean modifies OHC and also induces changes in mass and heat transports associated with the ocean flow. In the SPG region, the assimilated OHC signal resembles well OHC from observations, regardless of using full fields or anomalies. The resulting ocean transport, on the other hand, reveals considerable differences between full-field and anomaly nudging. In all assimilation runs, ocean heat transport together with net heat exchange at the surface does not correspond to OHC tendencies, the SPG heat budget is not closed. Discrepancies in the budget in the cases of full-field nudging exceed those in the case of anomaly nudging by a factor of 2-3. The nudging-induced changes in ocean transport continue to be present in the free running hindcasts for up to 5 years, a clear expression of memory in our coupled system. In hindcast mode, on annual to inter-annual scales, ocean heat transport is the dominant driver of SPG OHC. Thus, we ascribe a significant reduction in OHC prediction skill when using full-field instead of anomaly initialization to an initialization shock resulting from the poor initialization of the ocean flow.

  20. An integrated modeling system for estimating glacier and snow melt driven streamflow from remote sensing and earth system data products in the Himalayas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, M. E.; Racoviteanu, A. E.; Tarboton, D. G.; Gupta, A. Sen; Nigro, J.; Policelli, F.; Habib, S.; Tokay, M.; Shrestha, M. S.; Bajracharya, S.; Hummel, P.; Gray, M.; Duda, P.; Zaitchik, B.; Mahat, V.; Artan, G.; Tokar, S.

    2014-11-01

    Quantification of the contribution of the hydrologic components (snow, ice and rain) to river discharge in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region is important for decision-making in water sensitive sectors, and for water resources management and flood risk reduction. In this area, access to and monitoring of the glaciers and their melt outflow is challenging due to difficult access, thus modeling based on remote sensing offers the potential for providing information to improve water resources management and decision making. This paper describes an integrated modeling system developed using downscaled NASA satellite based and earth system data products coupled with in-situ hydrologic data to assess the contribution of snow and glaciers to the flows of the rivers in the HKH region. Snow and glacier melt was estimated using the Utah Energy Balance (UEB) model, further enhanced to accommodate glacier ice melt over clean and debris-covered tongues, then meltwater was input into the USGS Geospatial Stream Flow Model (GeoSFM). The two model components were integrated into Better Assessment Science Integrating point and Nonpoint Sources modeling framework (BASINS) as a user-friendly open source system and was made available to countries in high Asia. Here we present a case study from the Langtang Khola watershed in the monsoon-influenced Nepal Himalaya, used to validate our energy balance approach and to test the applicability of our modeling system. The snow and glacier melt model predicts that for the eight years used for model evaluation (October 2003-September 2010), the total surface water input over the basin was 9.43 m, originating as 62% from glacier melt, 30% from snowmelt and 8% from rainfall. Measured streamflow for those years were 5.02 m, reflecting a runoff coefficient of 0.53. GeoSFM simulated streamflow was 5.31 m indicating reasonable correspondence between measured and model confirming the capability of the integrated system to provide a quantification of

  1. An Integrated Modeling System for Estimating Glacier and Snow Melt Driven Streamflow from Remote Sensing and Earth System Data Products in the Himalayas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, M. E.; Racoviteanu, A. E.; Tarboton, D. G.; Sen Gupta, A.; Nigro, J.; Policelli, F.; Habib, S.; Tokay, M.; Shrestha, M. S.; Bajracharya, S.

    2014-01-01

    Quantification of the contribution of the hydrologic components (snow, ice and rain) to river discharge in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region is important for decision-making in water sensitive sectors, and for water resources management and flood risk reduction. In this area, access to and monitoring of the glaciers and their melt outflow is challenging due to difficult access, thus modeling based on remote sensing offers the potential for providing information to improve water resources management and decision making. This paper describes an integrated modeling system developed using downscaled NASA satellite based and earth system data products coupled with in-situ hydrologic data to assess the contribution of snow and glaciers to the flows of the rivers in the HKH region. Snow and glacier melt was estimated using the Utah Energy Balance (UEB) model, further enhanced to accommodate glacier ice melt over clean and debris-covered tongues, then meltwater was input into the USGS Geospatial Stream Flow Model (Geo- SFM). The two model components were integrated into Better Assessment Science Integrating point and Nonpoint Sources modeling framework (BASINS) as a user-friendly open source system and was made available to countries in high Asia. Here we present a case study from the Langtang Khola watershed in the monsoon-influenced Nepal Himalaya, used to validate our energy balance approach and to test the applicability of our modeling system. The snow and glacier melt model predicts that for the eight years used for model evaluation (October 2003-September 2010), the total surface water input over the basin was 9.43 m, originating as 62% from glacier melt, 30% from snowmelt and 8% from rainfall. Measured streamflow for those years were 5.02 m, reflecting a runoff coefficient of 0.53. GeoSFM simulated streamflow was 5.31 m indicating reasonable correspondence between measured and model confirming the capability of the integrated system to provide a quantification

  2. Vegetation and land carbon feedbacks in the high-resolution transient Holocene simulations using the MPI Earth system model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brovkin, Victor; Lorenz, Stephan; Raddatz, Thomas

    2017-04-01

    Plants influence climate through changes in the land surface biophysics (albedo, transpiration) and concentrations of the atmospheric greenhouse gases. One of the interesting periods to investigate a climatic role of terrestrial biosphere is the Holocene, when, despite of the relatively steady global climate, the atmospheric CO2 grew by about 20 ppm from 7 kyr BP to pre-industrial. We use a new setup of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model MPI-ESM1 consisting of the latest version of the atmospheric model ECHAM6, including the land surface model JSBACH3 with carbon cycle and vegetation dynamics, coupled to the ocean circulation model MPI-OM, which includes the HAMOCC model of ocean biogeochemistry. The model has been run for several simulations over the Holocene period of the last 8000 years under the forcing data sets of orbital insolation, atmospheric greenhouse gases, volcanic aerosols, solar irradiance and stratospheric ozone, as well as land-use changes. In response to this forcing, the land carbon storage increased by about 60 PgC between 8 and 4 kyr BP, stayed relatively constant until 2 kyr BP, and decreased by about 90 PgC by 1850 AD due to land use changes. Vegetation and soil carbon changes significantly affected atmospheric CO2 during the periods of strong volcanic eruptions. In response to the eruption-caused cooling, the land initially stores more carbon as respiration decreases, but then it releases even more carbon due to productivity decrease. This decadal- scale variability helps to quantify the vegetation and land carbon feedbacks during the past periods when the temporal resolution of the ice-core CO2 record is not sufficient to capture fast CO2 variations. From a set of Holocene simulations with prescribed or interactive atmospheric CO2, we get estimates of climate-carbon feedback useful for future climate studies. Members of the Hamburg Holocene Team: Jürgen Bader1, Sebastian Bathiany2, Victor Brovkin1, Martin Claussen1,3, Traute Cr

  3. Vegetation and Carbon Cycle Dynamics in the High-Resolution Transient Holocene Simulations Using the MPI Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brovkin, V.; Lorenz, S.; Raddatz, T.; Claussen, M.; Dallmeyer, A.

    2017-12-01

    One of the interesting periods to investigate a climatic role of terrestrial biosphere is the Holocene, when, despite of the relatively steady global climate, the atmospheric CO2 grew by about 20 ppm from 7 kyr BP to pre-industrial. We use a new setup of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model MPI-ESM1 consisting of the latest version of the atmospheric model ECHAM6, including the land surface model JSBACH3 with carbon cycle and vegetation dynamics, coupled to the ocean circulation model MPI-OM, which includes the HAMOCC model of ocean biogeochemistry. The model has been run for several simulations over the Holocene period of the last 8000 years under the forcing data sets of orbital insolation, atmospheric greenhouse gases, volcanic aerosols, solar irradiance and stratospheric ozone, as well as land-use changes. In response to this forcing, the land carbon storage increased by about 60 PgC between 8 and 4 kyr BP, stayed relatively constant until 2 kyr BP, and decreased by about 90 PgC by 1850 AD due to land use changes. At 8 kyr BP, vegetation cover was much denser in Africa, mainly due to increased rainfall in response to the orbital forcing. Boreal forests moved northward in both, North America and Eurasia. The boreal forest expansion in North America is much less pronounced than in Eurasia. Simulated physical ocean fields, including surface temperatures and meridional overturning, do not change substantially in the Holocene. Carbonate ion concentration in deep ocean decreases in both, prescribed and interactive CO2simulations. Comparison with available proxies for terrestrial vegetation and for the ocean carbonate chemistry will be presented. Vegetation and soil carbon changes significantly affected atmospheric CO2 during the periods of strong volcanic eruptions. In response to the eruption-caused cooling, the land initially stores more carbon as respiration decreases, but then it releases even more carbon die to productivity decrease. This decadal

  4. 21st Century Carbon-Climate Change as Simulated by the Canadian Earth System Model CanESM1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curry, C.; Christian, J. R.; Arora, V.; Boer, G. J.; Denman, K. L.; Flato, G. M.; Scinocca, J. F.; Merryfield, W. J.; Lee, W. G.; Yang, D.

    2009-12-01

    The Canadian Earth System Model CanESM1 is a fully coupled climate/carbon-cycle model with prognostic ocean and terrestrial components. The model has been used to simulate the 1850-2000 climate using historical greenhouse gas emissions, and future climates using IPCC emission scenarios. Modelled globally averaged CO2 concentration, land and ocean carbon uptake compare well with observation-based values at year 2000, as do the annual cycle and latitudinal distribution of CO2, instilling confidence that the model is suitable for future projections of carbon cycle behaviour in a changing climate. Land use change emissions are calculated explicitly using an observation-based time series of fractional coverage of different plant functional types. A more complete description of the model may be found in Arora et al. (2009). Differences in the land-atmosphere CO2 flux from the present to the future period under the SRES A2 emissions scenario show an increase in land sinks by a factor of 7.5 globally, mostly the result of CO2 fertilization. By contrast, the magnitude of the global ocean CO2 sink increases by a factor of only 2.3 by 2100. Expressed as a fraction of total emissions, ocean carbon uptake decreases throughout the 2000-2100 period, while land carbon uptake increases until around 2050, then declines. The result is an increase in airborne CO2 fraction after the mid-21st century, reaching a value of 0.55 by 2100. The simulated decline in ocean carbon uptake over the 21st century occurs despite steadily rising atmospheric CO2. This behaviour is usually attributed to climate-induced changes in surface temperature and salinity that reduce CO2 solubility, and increasing ocean stratification that weakens the biological pump. However, ocean biological processes such as dinitrogen fixation and calcification may also play an important role. Although not well understood at present, improved parameterizations of these processes will increase confidence in projections of

  5. Earth System Science Education Modules

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, C.; Kaufman, C.; Humphreys, R. R.; Colgan, M. W.

    2009-12-01

    The College of Charleston is developing several new geoscience-based education modules for integration into the Earth System Science Education Alliance (ESSEA). These three new modules provide opportunities for science and pre-service education students to participate in inquiry-based, data-driven experiences. The three new modules will be discussed in this session. Coastal Crisis is a module that analyzes rapidly changing coastlines and uses technology - remotely sensed data and geographic information systems (GIS) to delineate, understand and monitor changes in coastal environments. The beaches near Charleston, SC are undergoing erosion and therefore are used as examples of rapidly changing coastlines. Students will use real data from NASA, NOAA and other federal agencies in the classroom to study coastal change. Through this case study, learners will acquire remotely sensed images and GIS data sets from online sources, utilize those data sets within Google Earth or other visualization programs, and understand what the data is telling them. Analyzing the data will allow learners to contemplate and make predictions on the impact associated with changing environmental conditions, within the context of a coastal setting. To Drill or Not To Drill is a multidisciplinary problem based module to increase students’ knowledge of problems associated with nonrenewable resource extraction. The controversial topic of drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) examines whether the economic benefit of the oil extracted from ANWR is worth the social cost of the environmental damage that such extraction may inflict. By attempting to answer this question, learners must balance the interests of preservation with the economic need for oil. The learners are exposed to the difficulties associated with a real world problem that requires trade-off between environmental trust and economic well-being. The Citizen Science module challenges students to translate scientific

  6. Data-mining analysis of the global distribution of soil carbon in observational databases and Earth system models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashimoto, Shoji; Nanko, Kazuki; Ťupek, Boris; Lehtonen, Aleksi

    2017-03-01

    Future climate change will dramatically change the carbon balance in the soil, and this change will affect the terrestrial carbon stock and the climate itself. Earth system models (ESMs) are used to understand the current climate and to project future climate conditions, but the soil organic carbon (SOC) stock simulated by ESMs and those of observational databases are not well correlated when the two are compared at fine grid scales. However, the specific key processes and factors, as well as the relationships among these factors that govern the SOC stock, remain unclear; the inclusion of such missing information would improve the agreement between modeled and observational data. In this study, we sought to identify the influential factors that govern global SOC distribution in observational databases, as well as those simulated by ESMs. We used a data-mining (machine-learning) (boosted regression trees - BRT) scheme to identify the factors affecting the SOC stock. We applied BRT scheme to three observational databases and 15 ESM outputs from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and examined the effects of 13 variables/factors categorized into five groups (climate, soil property, topography, vegetation, and land-use history). Globally, the contributions of mean annual temperature, clay content, carbon-to-nitrogen (CN) ratio, wetland ratio, and land cover were high in observational databases, whereas the contributions of the mean annual temperature, land cover, and net primary productivity (NPP) were predominant in the SOC distribution in ESMs. A comparison of the influential factors at a global scale revealed that the most distinct differences between the SOCs from the observational databases and ESMs were the low clay content and CN ratio contributions, and the high NPP contribution in the ESMs. The results of this study will aid in identifying the causes of the current mismatches between observational SOC databases and ESM outputs

  7. The Representation of Tropical Cyclones Within the Global William Putman Non-Hydrostatic Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-5) at Cloud-Permitting Resolutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putman, William M.

    2010-01-01

    The Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-S), an earth system model developed in the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), has integrated the non-hydrostatic finite-volume dynamical core on the cubed-sphere grid. The extension to a non-hydrostatic dynamical framework and the quasi-uniform cubed-sphere geometry permits the efficient exploration of global weather and climate modeling at cloud permitting resolutions of 10- to 4-km on today's high performance computing platforms. We have explored a series of incremental increases in global resolution with GEOS-S from irs standard 72-level 27-km resolution (approx.5.5 million cells covering the globe from the surface to 0.1 hPa) down to 3.5-km (approx. 3.6 billion cells).

  8. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 121; Issue 3 ... The failure of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by ... Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation, Bangalore 560 037, India.

  9. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 125; Issue 5 ... ozone concentrations in the east of Croatia using nonparametric Neural Network Models ... to develop, for the first time, accurate ozone prediction models, onefor urban ...

  10. Canadian snow and sea ice: assessment of snow, sea ice, and related climate processes in Canada's Earth system model and climate-prediction system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kushner, Paul J.; Mudryk, Lawrence R.; Merryfield, William; Ambadan, Jaison T.; Berg, Aaron; Bichet, Adéline; Brown, Ross; Derksen, Chris; Déry, Stephen J.; Dirkson, Arlan; Flato, Greg; Fletcher, Christopher G.; Fyfe, John C.; Gillett, Nathan; Haas, Christian; Howell, Stephen; Laliberté, Frédéric; McCusker, Kelly; Sigmond, Michael; Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Tandon, Neil F.; Thackeray, Chad; Tremblay, Bruno; Zwiers, Francis W.

    2018-04-01

    The Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution (CanSISE) Network is a climate research network focused on developing and applying state-of-the-art observational data to advance dynamical prediction, projections, and understanding of seasonal snow cover and sea ice in Canada and the circumpolar Arctic. This study presents an assessment from the CanSISE Network of the ability of the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) and the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) to simulate and predict snow and sea ice from seasonal to multi-decadal timescales, with a focus on the Canadian sector. To account for observational uncertainty, model structural uncertainty, and internal climate variability, the analysis uses multi-source observations, multiple Earth system models (ESMs) in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and large initial-condition ensembles of CanESM2 and other models. It is found that the ability of the CanESM2 simulation to capture snow-related climate parameters, such as cold-region surface temperature and precipitation, lies within the range of currently available international models. Accounting for the considerable disagreement among satellite-era observational datasets on the distribution of snow water equivalent, CanESM2 has too much springtime snow mass over Canada, reflecting a broader northern hemispheric positive bias. Biases in seasonal snow cover extent are generally less pronounced. CanESM2 also exhibits retreat of springtime snow generally greater than observational estimates, after accounting for observational uncertainty and internal variability. Sea ice is biased low in the Canadian Arctic, which makes it difficult to assess the realism of long-term sea ice trends there. The strengths and weaknesses of the modelling system need to be understood as a practical tradeoff: the Canadian models are relatively inexpensive computationally because of their moderate resolution, thus enabling their

  11. Vegetation-climate feedback causes reduced precipitation in CMIP5 regional Earth system model simulation over Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Minchao; Smith, Benjamin; Schurgers, Guy; Lindström, Joe; Rummukainen, Markku; Samuelsson, Patrick

    2013-04-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems have been demonstrated to play a significant role within the climate system, amplifying or dampening climate change via biogeophysical and biogeochemical exchange with the atmosphere and vice versa (Cox et al. 2000; Betts et al. 2004). Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change and studies of vegetation-climate feedback mechanisms on Africa are still limited. Our study is the first application of A coupled Earth system model at regional scale and resolution over Africa. We applied a coupled regional climate-vegetation model, RCA-GUESS (Smith et al. 2011), over the CORDEX Africa domain, forced by boundary conditions from a CanESM2 CMIP5 simulation under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The simulations were from 1961 to 2100 and covered the African continent at a horizontal grid spacing of 0.44°. RCA-GUESS simulates changes in the phenology, productivity, relative cover and population structure of up to eight plant function types (PFTs) in response to forcing from the climate part of the model. These vegetation changes feedback to simulated climate through dynamic adjustments in surface energy fluxes and surface properties. Changes in the net ecosystem-atmosphere carbon flux and its components net primary production (NPP), heterotrophic respiration and emissions from biomass burning were also simulated but do not feedback to climate in our model. Constant land cover was assumed. We compared simulations with and without vegetation feedback switched "on" to assess the influence of vegetation-climate feedback on simulated climate, vegetation and ecosystem carbon cycling. Both positive and negative warming feedbacks were identified in different parts of Africa. In the Sahel savannah zone near 15°N, reduced vegetation cover and productivity, and mortality caused by a deterioration of soil water conditions led to a positive warming feedback mediated by decreased evapotranspiration and increased sensible heat flux between vegetation and

  12. The Earth Observing System Terra Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, Yoram J.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Langley's remarkable solar and lunar spectra collected from Mt. Whitney inspired Arrhenius to develop the first quantitative climate model in 1896. After the launch in Dec. 16 1999, NASA's Earth Observing AM Satellite (EOS-Terra) will repeat Langley's experiment, but for the entire planet, thus pioneering a wide array of calibrated spectral observations from space of the Earth System. Conceived in response to real environmental problems, EOS-Terra, in conjunction with other international satellite efforts, will fill a major gap in current efforts by providing quantitative global data sets with a resolution better than 1 km on the physical, chemical and biological elements of the earth system. Thus, like Langley's data, EOS-Terra can revolutionize climate research by inspiring a new generation of climate system models and enable us to assess the human impact on the environment. In the talk I shall review the historical perspective of the Terra mission and the key new elements of the mission. We expect to have first images that demonstrate the most innovative capability from EOS Terra 5 instruments: MODIS - 1.37 micron cirrus cloud channel; 250m daily coverage for clouds and vegetation change; 7 solar channels for land and aerosol studies; new fire channels; Chlorophyll fluorescence; MISR - first 9 multi angle views of clouds and vegetation; MOPITT - first global CO maps and C114 maps; ASTER - Thermal channels for geological studies with 15-90 m resolution.

  13. Projections of oceanic N2O emissions in the 21st century using the IPSL Earth system model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Rey, J.; Bopp, L.; Gehlen, M.; Tagliabue, A.; Gruber, N.

    2015-07-01

    , the assessment for a potential balance between the terrestrial and marine feedbacks calls for an improved representation of N2O production terms in fully coupled next-generation Earth system models.

  14. A new parameterization for surface ocean light attenuation in Earth System Models: assessing the impact of light absorption by colored detrital material

    OpenAIRE

    G. E. Kim; M.-A. Pradal; A. Gnanadesikan

    2015-01-01

    Light limitation can affect the distribution of biota and nutrients in the ocean. Light absorption by colored detrital material (CDM) was included in a fully coupled Earth System Model using a new parameterization for shortwave attenuation. Two model runs were conducted, with and without light attenuation by CDM. In a global average sense, greater light limitation associated with CDM increased surface chlorophyll, biomass and nutrients together. These changes can be attribut...

  15. Development of a Grid-Independent Geos-Chem Chemical Transport Model (v9-02) as an Atmospheric Chemistry Module for Earth System Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, M. S.; Yantosca, R.; Nielsen, J. E; Keller, C. A.; Da Silva, A.; Sulprizio, M. P.; Pawson, S.; Jacob, D. J.

    2015-01-01

    The GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model (CTM), used by a large atmospheric chemistry research community, has been re-engineered to also serve as an atmospheric chemistry module for Earth system models (ESMs). This was done using an Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) interface that operates independently of the GEOSChem scientific code, permitting the exact same GEOSChem code to be used as an ESM module or as a standalone CTM. In this manner, the continual stream of updates contributed by the CTM user community is automatically passed on to the ESM module, which remains state of science and referenced to the latest version of the standard GEOS-Chem CTM. A major step in this re-engineering was to make GEOS-Chem grid independent, i.e., capable of using any geophysical grid specified at run time. GEOS-Chem data sockets were also created for communication between modules and with external ESM code. The grid-independent, ESMF-compatible GEOS-Chem is now the standard version of the GEOS-Chem CTM. It has been implemented as an atmospheric chemistry module into the NASA GEOS- 5 ESM. The coupled GEOS-5-GEOS-Chem system was tested for scalability and performance with a tropospheric oxidant-aerosol simulation (120 coupled species, 66 transported tracers) using 48-240 cores and message-passing interface (MPI) distributed-memory parallelization. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the GEOS-Chem chemistry module scales efficiently for the number of cores tested, with no degradation as the number of cores increases. Although inclusion of atmospheric chemistry in ESMs is computationally expensive, the excellent scalability of the chemistry module means that the relative cost goes down with increasing number of cores in a massively parallel environment.

  16. The Regional Earth System Model (RegESM) using RegCM4 coupled with the MITgcm ocean model: First assessments over the MED-CORDEX domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mariotti, Laura; Utku Turunçoǧlu, Ufuk; Farneti, Riccardo; Sannino, Gianmaria; Vittoria Struglia, Maria; Carillo, Adriana; Giorgi, Filippo

    2016-04-01

    In the framework of global climate studies, there is an increasingly growing concern about the vulnerability of the Mediterranean region, where high population density and intense exploitation activities pose severe questions on the sustainability of terrestrial water management, both for the present and the future. Ocean modeling studies suggest that the Mediterranean thermohaline circulation could be weakened in conditions of global greenhouse warming, an event which would undoubtedly affect regional climate, possibly triggering global feedback processes. Experiments with the atmosphere-ocean coupled system confirmed that a good comprehension of Mediterranean processes requires the explicit inclusion of the feedbacks between the atmospheric and the oceanic components, thus achieving a complete, fully coupled description of the Mediterranean hydrological cycle, at the same time gaining new insights in our current ability to reproduce the atmospheric hydrological processes and to close the hydrological balance. These issues are addressed by the upgraded PROTHEUS system which was jointly developed by ENEA and ICTP. Here we present a first evaluation of the performances of the new PROTHEUS system (called PROTHEUS 2.0) composed by the regional climate model RegCM4 (Giorgi et al. 2012) coupled with both the ocean model MITgcm (Marshall J. et al. 1997a,b) and the HD river model (Max-Planck's HD model; Hagemann and Dümenil, 1998) using RegESM (Regional Earth System Model) as a driver. The three-component (atmosphere, ocean and river routing) fully coupled model exchanges sea surface temperature (SST) from the ocean to the atmospheric model, surface wind stress, energy and freshwater fluxes from the atmosphere to the ocean model, surface and sub-surface runoff from the atmospheric component to the river routing model (Max-Planck's HD model; Hagemann and Dümenil, 1998). In order to have water conservation within the system, the river routing component sends the

  17. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science. P K Sikdar. Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science. Volume 126 Issue 2 March 2017 pp 29. Numerical modelling of groundwater flow to understand the impacts of pumping on arsenic migration in the aquifer of North Bengal Plain · P K Sikdar Surajit Chakraborty.

  18. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science. Suman Sinha. Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science. Volume 125 Issue 4 June 2016 pp 725-735. Developing synergy regression models with space-borne ALOS PALSAR and Landsat TM sensors for retrieving tropical forest biomass · Suman Sinha C ...

  19. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science. G Sasibhushana Rao. Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science. Volume 116 Issue 5 October 2007 pp 407-411. GPS satellite and receiver instrumental biases estimation using least squares method for accurate ionosphere modelling · G Sasibhushana Rao.

  20. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science. A Ganju. Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science. Volume 117 Issue 5 October 2008 pp 575-587. Mountain range specific analog weather forecast model for northwest Himalaya in India · D Singh A Ganju · More Details Abstract Fulltext PDF. Mountain range ...

  1. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science. J C Joshi. Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science. Volume 126 Issue 1 February 2017 pp 3. Optimisation of Hidden Markov Model using Baum–Welch algorithm for prediction of maximum and minimum temperature over Indian Himalaya · J C Joshi Tankeshwar ...

  2. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science. Saji Mohandas. Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science. Volume 117 Issue 5 October 2008 pp 603-620. Skills of different mesoscale models over Indian region during monsoon season: Forecast errors · Someshwar Das Raghavendra Ashrit Gopal Raman ...

  3. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science. S D Kotal. Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science. Volume 117 Issue 2 April 2008 pp 157-168. A Statistical Cyclone Intensity Prediction (SCIP) model for the Bay of Bengal · S D Kotal S K Roy Bhowmik P K Kundu Ananda Kumar Das · More Details Abstract ...

  4. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science. Shantamoy Guha. Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science. Volume 126 Issue 2 March 2017 pp 21. Identification of drought in Dhalai river watershed using MCDM and ANN models · Sainath Aher Sambhaji Shinde Shantamoy Guha Mrinmoy Majumder.

  5. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science. C K Unnikrishnan. Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science. Volume 125 Issue 4 June 2016 pp 677-689. Impact of high resolution land surface initialization in Indian summer monsoon simulation using a regional climate model · C K Unnikrishnan M Rajeevan S ...

  6. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science. S Panigrahy. Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science. Volume 120 Issue 1 February 2011 pp 19-25. Simulation of at-sensor radiance over land for proposed thermal channels of Imager payload onboard INSAT-3D satellite using MODTRAN model · M R Pandya ...

  7. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science. D Twinkle. Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science. Volume 125 Issue 2 March 2016 pp 329-342. Crustal structure and rift tectonics across the Cauvery–Palar basin, Eastern Continental Margin of India based on seismic and potential field modelling · D Twinkle G ...

  8. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science. Rajeev Ranjan Kumar. Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science. Volume 121 Issue 5 October 2012 pp 1177-1184. Modelling near subsurface temperature with mixed type boundary condition for transient air temperature and vertical groundwater flow.

  9. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science. Rahul Choudhury. Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science. Volume 125 Issue 7 October 2016 pp 1365-1377. Thermogravimetric and model-free kinetic studies on CO2 gasification of low-quality, high-sulphur Indian coals · Tonkeswar Das Ananya Saikia ...

  10. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science. Sankar Kumar Nath. Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science. Volume 117 Issue S2 November 2008 pp 649-670. Seismic hazard scenario and attenuation model of the Garhwal Himalaya using near-field synthesis from weak motion seismometry · Sankar Kumar ...

  11. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science. Aditi Singh. Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science. Volume 127 Issue 2 March 2018 pp 26. Prediction of fog/visibility over India using NWP Model · Aditi Singh John P George Gopal Raman Iyengar · More Details Abstract Fulltext PDF. Frequent occurrence of fog ...

  12. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science. K K Osuri. Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science. Volume 125 Issue 3 April 2016 pp 475-498. Role of land state in a high resolution mesoscale model for simulating the Uttarakhand heavy rainfall event over India · P V Rajesh S Pattnaik D Rai K K Osuri U C ...

  13. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science. K S Krishna. Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science. Volume 111 Issue 1 March 2002 pp 17-28. Formation of diapiric structure in the deformation zone, central Indian Ocean: A model from gravity and seismic reflection data · K S Krishna D Gopala Rao Yu P ...

  14. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science. M Radhakrishna. Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science. Volume 120 Issue 4 August 2011 pp 605-615. Development of the negative gravity anomaly of the 85°E Ridge, northeastern Indian Ocean – A process oriented modelling approach · K M Sreejith M ...

  15. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science. B O Adebesin. Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science. Volume 123 Issue 4 June 2014 pp 751-765. Ionospheric foF2 morphology and response of F2 layer height over Jicamarca during different solar epochs and comparison with IRI-2012 model · B O Adebesin ...

  16. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science. D B Shah. Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science. Volume 120 Issue 1 February 2011 pp 19-25. Simulation of at-sensor radiance over land for proposed thermal channels of Imager payload onboard INSAT-3D satellite using MODTRAN model · M R Pandya D B ...

  17. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science. M Mandal. Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science. Volume 112 Issue 1 March 2003 pp 79-93. Impact of horizontal resolution on prediction of tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal using a regional weather prediction model · M Mandal U C Mohanty K V J Potty A ...

  18. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science. Ju Wei. Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science. Volume 125 Issue 5 July 2016 pp 1021-1031. Tectonic stress accumulation in Bohai–Zhangjiakou Seismotectonic Zone based on 3D visco-elastic modelling · Ju Wei Sun Weifeng Ma Xiaojing Jiang Hui.

  19. Prototyping global Earth System Models at high resolution: Representation of climate, ecosystems, and acidification in Eastern Boundary Currents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunne, J. P.; John, J. G.; Stock, C. A.

    2013-12-01

    The world's major Eastern Boundary Currents (EBC) such as the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME) are critically important areas for global fisheries. Computational limitations have divided past EBC modeling into two types: high resolution regional approaches that resolve the strong meso-scale structures involved, and coarse global approaches that represent the large scale context for EBCs, but only crudely resolve only the largest scales of their manifestation. These latter global studies have illustrated the complex mechanisms involved in the climate change and acidification response in these regions, with the CCLME response dominated not by local adjustments but large scale reorganization of ocean circulation through remote forcing of water-mass supply pathways. While qualitatively illustrating the limitations of regional high resolution studies in long term projection, these studies lack the ability to robustly quantify change because of the inability of these models to represent the baseline meso-scale structures of EBCs. In the present work, we compare current generation coarse resolution (one degree) and a prototype next generation high resolution (1/10 degree) Earth System Models (ESMs) from NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in representing the four major EBCs. We review the long-known temperature biases that the coarse models suffer in being unable to represent the timing and intensity of upwelling-favorable winds, along with lack of representation of the observed high chlorophyll and biological productivity resulting from this upwelling. In promising contrast, we show that the high resolution prototype is capable of representing not only the overall meso-scale structure in physical and biogeochemical fields, but also the appropriate offshore extent of temperature anomalies and other EBC characteristics. Results for chlorophyll were mixed; while high resolution chlorophyll in EBCs were strongly enhanced over the coarse resolution

  20. Applying Hillslope Hydrology to Bridge between Ecosystem and Grid-Scale Processes within an Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subin, Z. M.; Sulman, B. N.; Malyshev, S.; Shevliakova, E.

    2013-12-01

    Soil moisture is a crucial control on surface energy fluxes, vegetation properties, and soil carbon cycling. Its interactions with ecosystem processes are highly nonlinear across a large range, as both drought stress and anoxia can impede vegetation and microbial growth. Earth System Models (ESMs) generally only represent an average soil-moisture state in grid cells at scales of 50-200 km, and as a result are not able to adequately represent the effects of subgrid heterogeneity in soil moisture, especially in regions with large wetland areas. We addressed this deficiency by developing the first ESM-coupled subgrid hillslope-hydrological model, TiHy (Tiled-hillslope Hydrology), embedded within the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) land model. In each grid cell, one or more representative hillslope geometries are discretized into land model tiles along an upland-to-lowland gradient. These geometries represent ~1 km hillslope-scale hydrological features and allow for flexible representation of hillslope profile and plan shapes, in addition to variation of subsurface properties among or within hillslopes. Each tile (which may represent ~100 m along the hillslope) has its own surface fluxes, vegetation state, and vertically-resolved state variables for soil physics and biogeochemistry. Resolution of water state in deep layers (~200 m) down to bedrock allows for physical integration of groundwater transport with unsaturated overlying dynamics. Multiple tiles can also co-exist at the same vertical position along the hillslope, allowing the simulation of ecosystem heterogeneity due to disturbance. The hydrological model is coupled to the vertically-resolved Carbon, Organisms, Respiration, and Protection in the Soil Environment (CORPSE) model, which captures non-linearity resulting from interactions between vertically-heterogeneous soil carbon and water profiles. We present comparisons of simulated water table depth to observations. We examine sensitivities to

  1. The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 2: Climate response and scenario projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Iversen

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available NorESM is a generic name of the Norwegian earth system model. The first version is named NorESM1, and has been applied with medium spatial resolution to provide results for CMIP5 (http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/index.html without (NorESM1-M and with (NorESM1-ME interactive carbon-cycling. Together with the accompanying paper by Bentsen et al. (2012, this paper documents that the core version NorESM1-M is a valuable global climate model for research and for providing complementary results to the evaluation of possible anthropogenic climate change. NorESM1-M is based on the model CCSM4 operated at NCAR, but the ocean model is replaced by a modified version of MICOM and the atmospheric model is extended with online calculations of aerosols, their direct effect and their indirect effect on warm clouds. Model validation is presented in the companion paper (Bentsen et al., 2012. NorESM1-M is estimated to have equilibrium climate sensitivity of ca. 2.9 K and a transient climate response of ca. 1.4 K. This sensitivity is in the lower range amongst the models contributing to CMIP5. Cloud feedbacks dampen the response, and a strong AMOC reduces the heat fraction available for increasing near-surface temperatures, for evaporation and for melting ice. The future projections based on RCP scenarios yield a global surface air temperature increase of almost one standard deviation lower than a 15-model average. Summer sea-ice is projected to decrease considerably by 2100 and disappear completely for RCP8.5. The AMOC is projected to decrease by 12%, 15–17%, and 32% for the RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. Precipitation is projected to increase in the tropics, decrease in the subtropics and in southern parts of the northern extra-tropics during summer, and otherwise increase in most of the extra-tropics. Changes in the atmospheric water cycle indicate that precipitation events over continents will become more intense and dry spells more frequent. Extra

  2. Earth system model simulations show different feedback strengths of the terrestrial carbon cycle under glacial and interglacial conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Adloff

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In simulations with the MPI Earth System Model, we study the feedback between the terrestrial carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 concentrations under ice age and interglacial conditions. We find different sensitivities of terrestrial carbon storage to rising CO2 concentrations in the two settings. This result is obtained by comparing the transient response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to a fast and strong atmospheric CO2 concentration increase (roughly 900 ppm in Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP-type simulations starting from climates representing the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM and pre-industrial times (PI. In this set-up we disentangle terrestrial contributions to the feedback from the carbon-concentration effect, acting biogeochemically via enhanced photosynthetic productivity when CO2 concentrations increase, and the carbon–climate effect, which affects the carbon cycle via greenhouse warming. We find that the carbon-concentration effect is larger under LGM than PI conditions because photosynthetic productivity is more sensitive when starting from the lower, glacial CO2 concentration and CO2 fertilization saturates later. This leads to a larger productivity increase in the LGM experiment. Concerning the carbon–climate effect, it is the PI experiment in which land carbon responds more sensitively to the warming under rising CO2 because at the already initially higher temperatures, tropical plant productivity deteriorates more strongly and extratropical carbon is respired more effectively. Consequently, land carbon losses increase faster in the PI than in the LGM case. Separating the carbon–climate and carbon-concentration effects, we find that they are almost additive for our model set-up; i.e. their synergy is small in the global sum of carbon changes. Together, the two effects result in an overall strength of the terrestrial carbon cycle feedback that is almost twice as large in the LGM experiment

  3. Amplification of global warming through pH dependence of DMS production simulated with a fully coupled Earth system model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwinger, Jörg; Tjiputra, Jerry; Goris, Nadine; Six, Katharina D.; Kirkevåg, Alf; Seland, Øyvind; Heinze, Christoph; Ilyina, Tatiana

    2017-08-01

    We estimate the additional transient surface warming ΔTs caused by a potential reduction of marine dimethyl sulfide (DMS) production due to ocean acidification under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5 until the year 2200. Since we use a fully coupled Earth system model, our results include a range of feedbacks, such as the response of marine DMS production to the additional changes in temperature and sea ice cover. Our results are broadly consistent with the findings of a previous study that employed an offline model set-up. Assuming a medium (strong) sensitivity of DMS production to pH, we find an additional transient global warming of 0.30 K (0.47 K) towards the end of the 22nd century when DMS emissions are reduced by 7.3 Tg S yr-1 or 31 % (11.5 Tg S yr-1 or 48 %). The main mechanism behind the additional warming is a reduction of cloud albedo, but a change in shortwave radiative fluxes under clear-sky conditions due to reduced sulfate aerosol load also contributes significantly. We find an approximately linear relationship between reduction of DMS emissions and changes in top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes as well as changes in surface temperature for the range of DMS emissions considered here. For example, global average Ts changes by -0. 041 K per 1 Tg S yr-1 change in sea-air DMS fluxes. The additional warming in our model has a pronounced asymmetry between northern and southern high latitudes. It is largest over the Antarctic continent, where the additional temperature increase of 0.56 K (0.89 K) is almost twice the global average. We find that feedbacks are small on the global scale due to opposing regional contributions. The most pronounced feedback is found for the Southern Ocean, where we estimate that the additional climate change enhances sea-air DMS fluxes by about 9 % (15 %), which counteracts the reduction due to ocean acidification.

  4. Amplification of global warming through pH dependence of DMS production simulated with a fully coupled Earth system model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Schwinger

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available We estimate the additional transient surface warming ΔTs caused by a potential reduction of marine dimethyl sulfide (DMS production due to ocean acidification under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5 until the year 2200. Since we use a fully coupled Earth system model, our results include a range of feedbacks, such as the response of marine DMS production to the additional changes in temperature and sea ice cover. Our results are broadly consistent with the findings of a previous study that employed an offline model set-up. Assuming a medium (strong sensitivity of DMS production to pH, we find an additional transient global warming of 0.30 K (0.47 K towards the end of the 22nd century when DMS emissions are reduced by 7.3 Tg S yr−1 or 31 % (11.5 Tg S yr−1 or 48 %. The main mechanism behind the additional warming is a reduction of cloud albedo, but a change in shortwave radiative fluxes under clear-sky conditions due to reduced sulfate aerosol load also contributes significantly. We find an approximately linear relationship between reduction of DMS emissions and changes in top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes as well as changes in surface temperature for the range of DMS emissions considered here. For example, global average Ts changes by −0. 041 K per 1 Tg S yr−1 change in sea–air DMS fluxes. The additional warming in our model has a pronounced asymmetry between northern and southern high latitudes. It is largest over the Antarctic continent, where the additional temperature increase of 0.56 K (0.89 K is almost twice the global average. We find that feedbacks are small on the global scale due to opposing regional contributions. The most pronounced feedback is found for the Southern Ocean, where we estimate that the additional climate change enhances sea–air DMS fluxes by about 9 % (15 %, which counteracts the reduction due to ocean acidification.

  5. Earth system model simulations show different feedback strengths of the terrestrial carbon cycle under glacial and interglacial conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adloff, Markus; Reick, Christian H.; Claussen, Martin

    2018-04-01

    In simulations with the MPI Earth System Model, we study the feedback between the terrestrial carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 concentrations under ice age and interglacial conditions. We find different sensitivities of terrestrial carbon storage to rising CO2 concentrations in the two settings. This result is obtained by comparing the transient response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to a fast and strong atmospheric CO2 concentration increase (roughly 900 ppm) in Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP)-type simulations starting from climates representing the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and pre-industrial times (PI). In this set-up we disentangle terrestrial contributions to the feedback from the carbon-concentration effect, acting biogeochemically via enhanced photosynthetic productivity when CO2 concentrations increase, and the carbon-climate effect, which affects the carbon cycle via greenhouse warming. We find that the carbon-concentration effect is larger under LGM than PI conditions because photosynthetic productivity is more sensitive when starting from the lower, glacial CO2 concentration and CO2 fertilization saturates later. This leads to a larger productivity increase in the LGM experiment. Concerning the carbon-climate effect, it is the PI experiment in which land carbon responds more sensitively to the warming under rising CO2 because at the already initially higher temperatures, tropical plant productivity deteriorates more strongly and extratropical carbon is respired more effectively. Consequently, land carbon losses increase faster in the PI than in the LGM case. Separating the carbon-climate and carbon-concentration effects, we find that they are almost additive for our model set-up; i.e. their synergy is small in the global sum of carbon changes. Together, the two effects result in an overall strength of the terrestrial carbon cycle feedback that is almost twice as large in the LGM experiment as in the PI experiment

  6. Decadal predictions of Southern Ocean sea ice : testing different initialization methods with an Earth-system Model of Intermediate Complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zunz, Violette; Goosse, Hugues; Dubinkina, Svetlana

    2013-04-01

    The sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean has increased since 1979 but the causes of this expansion have not been firmly identified. In particular, the contribution of internal variability and external forcing to this positive trend has not been fully established. In this region, the lack of observations and the overestimation of internal variability of the sea ice by contemporary General Circulation Models (GCMs) make it difficult to understand the behaviour of the sea ice. Nevertheless, if its evolution is governed by the internal variability of the system and if this internal variability is in some way predictable, a suitable initialization method should lead to simulations results that better fit the reality. Current GCMs decadal predictions are generally initialized through a nudging towards some observed fields. This relatively simple method does not seem to be appropriated to the initialization of sea ice in the Southern Ocean. The present study aims at identifying an initialization method that could improve the quality of the predictions of Southern Ocean sea ice at decadal timescales. We use LOVECLIM, an Earth-system Model of Intermediate Complexity that allows us to perform, within a reasonable computational time, the large amount of simulations required to test systematically different initialization procedures. These involve three data assimilation methods: a nudging, a particle filter and an efficient particle filter. In a first step, simulations are performed in an idealized framework, i.e. data from a reference simulation of LOVECLIM are used instead of observations, herein after called pseudo-observations. In this configuration, the internal variability of the model obviously agrees with the one of the pseudo-observations. This allows us to get rid of the issues related to the overestimation of the internal variability by models compared to the observed one. This way, we can work out a suitable methodology to assess the efficiency of the

  7. Carbon stocks and fluxes in the high latitudes: using site-level data to evaluate Earth system models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. E. Chadburn

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available It is important that climate models can accurately simulate the terrestrial carbon cycle in the Arctic due to the large and potentially labile carbon stocks found in permafrost-affected environments, which can lead to a positive climate feedback, along with the possibility of future carbon sinks from northward expansion of vegetation under climate warming. Here we evaluate the simulation of tundra carbon stocks and fluxes in three land surface schemes that each form part of major Earth system models (JSBACH, Germany; JULES, UK; ORCHIDEE, France. We use a site-level approach in which comprehensive, high-frequency datasets allow us to disentangle the importance of different processes. The models have improved physical permafrost processes and there is a reasonable correspondence between the simulated and measured physical variables, including soil temperature, soil moisture and snow. We show that if the models simulate the correct leaf area index (LAI, the standard C3 photosynthesis schemes produce the correct order of magnitude of carbon fluxes. Therefore, simulating the correct LAI is one of the first priorities. LAI depends quite strongly on climatic variables alone, as we see by the fact that the dynamic vegetation model can simulate most of the differences in LAI between sites, based almost entirely on climate inputs. However, we also identify an influence from nutrient limitation as the LAI becomes too large at some of the more nutrient-limited sites. We conclude that including moss as well as vascular plants is of primary importance to the carbon budget, as moss contributes a large fraction to the seasonal CO2 flux in nutrient-limited conditions. Moss photosynthetic activity can be strongly influenced by the moisture content of moss, and the carbon uptake can be significantly different from vascular plants with a similar LAI. The soil carbon stocks depend strongly on the rate of input of carbon from the vegetation to the soil, and our

  8. Models of the earth's core

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stevenson, D.J.

    1981-01-01

    The combination of seismology, high pressure experiment and theory, geomagnetism, fluid dynamics, and current views of terrestrial planetary evolution lead to strong constraints on core models. The synthesis presented here is devoted to the defense of the following properties: (1) core formation was contemporaneous with earth accretion; (2) the outer, liquid core is predominately iron but cannot be purely iron; (3) the inner core-outer core boundary represents a thermodynamic equilibrium between a liquid alloys and a predominanately iron solid; (4) thermodynamic and transport properties of outer core can be estimated from liquid-state theories; and (5) the outer core is probably adiabatic and uniform in composition. None of these propositions are universally accepted by geophysicists. But, the intent of this paper is to present a coherent picture which explains most of the data with the fewest ad hoc assumptions. Areas in which future progress is both essential and likely are geo- and cosmochronology, seismological determinations of core structure, fluid dynamics of the core and mantle, and condensed matter physics

  9. Earth system commitments due to delayed mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pfister, Patrik L; Stocker, Thomas F

    2016-01-01

    As long as global CO 2 emissions continue to increase annually, long-term committed Earth system changes grow much faster than current observations. A novel metric linking this future growth to policy decisions today is the mitigation delay sensitivity (MDS), but MDS estimates for Earth system variables other than peak temperature (ΔT max ) are missing. Using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity, we show that the current emission increase rate causes a ΔT max increase roughly 3–7.5 times as fast as observed warming, and a millenial steric sea level rise (SSLR) 7–25 times as fast as observed SSLR, depending on the achievable rate of emission reductions after the peak of emissions. These ranges are only slightly affected by the uncertainty range in equilibrium climate sensitivity, which is included in the above values. The extent of ocean acidification at the end of the century is also strongly dependent on the starting time and rate of emission reductions. The preservable surface ocean area with sufficient aragonite supersaturation for coral reef growth is diminished globally at an MDS of roughly 25%–80% per decade. A near-complete loss of this area becomes unavoidable if mitigation is delayed for a few years to decades. Also with respect to aragonite, 12%–18% of the Southern Ocean surface become undersaturated per decade, if emission reductions are delayed beyond 2015–2040. We conclude that the consequences of delaying global emission reductions are much better captured if the MDS of relevant Earth system variables is communicated in addition to current trends and total projected future changes. (letter)

  10. Plant functional types in Earth system models: past experiences and future directions for application of dynamic vegetation models in high-latitude ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wullschleger, Stan D; Epstein, Howard E; Box, Elgene O; Euskirchen, Eugénie S; Goswami, Santonu; Iversen, Colleen M; Kattge, Jens; Norby, Richard J; van Bodegom, Peter M; Xu, Xiaofeng

    2014-07-01

    Earth system models describe the physical, chemical and biological processes that govern our global climate. While it is difficult to single out one component as being more important than another in these sophisticated models, terrestrial vegetation is a critical player in the biogeochemical and biophysical dynamics of the Earth system. There is much debate, however, as to how plant diversity and function should be represented in these models. Plant functional types (PFTs) have been adopted by modellers to represent broad groupings of plant species that share similar characteristics (e.g. growth form) and roles (e.g. photosynthetic pathway) in ecosystem function. In this review, the PFT concept is traced from its origin in the early 1800s to its current use in regional and global dynamic vegetation models (DVMs). Special attention is given to the representation and parameterization of PFTs and to validation and benchmarking of predicted patterns of vegetation distribution in high-latitude ecosystems. These ecosystems are sensitive to changing climate and thus provide a useful test case for model-based simulations of past, current and future distribution of vegetation. Models that incorporate the PFT concept predict many of the emerging patterns of vegetation change in tundra and boreal forests, given known processes of tree mortality, treeline migration and shrub expansion. However, representation of above- and especially below-ground traits for specific PFTs continues to be problematic. Potential solutions include developing trait databases and replacing fixed parameters for PFTs with formulations based on trait co-variance and empirical trait-environment relationships. Surprisingly, despite being important to land-atmosphere interactions of carbon, water and energy, PFTs such as moss and lichen are largely absent from DVMs. Close collaboration among those involved in modelling with the disciplines of taxonomy, biogeography, ecology and remote sensing will be

  11. Exploring Earth Systems Through STEM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Loris; Salmon, Jennifer; Burns, Courtney

    2015-04-01

    During the 2010 school year, grade 8 science teachers at Dwight D. Eisenhower Middle School in Wyckoff, New Jersey, began using the draft of A Framework for K-12 Science Education to transition to the Next Generation Science Standards. In an evolutionary process of testing and revising, teachers work collaboratively to develop problem-based science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) units that integrate earth science, physical science, and life science topics. Students explore the interconnections of Earth's atmosphere, lithosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere through problem-based learning. Problem-based learning engages students in (1) direct observations in the field and classroom, (2) collection and analysis of data from remote sensors and hand-held sensors, and (3) analysis of physical, mathematical, and virtual models. Students use a variety of technologies and applications in their investigations, for example iPad apps, Google Classroom, and Vernier sensors. Data from NASA, NOAA, non-government organizations, and scientific research papers inspire student questions and spark investigations. Teachers create materials and websites to support student learning. Teachers curate reading, video, simulations, and other Internet resources for students. Because curriculum is standards-based as opposed to textbook-based, teacher participation in workshops and institutes frequently translates into new or improved study units. Recent programs include Toyota International Teacher Program to Costa Rica, Japan Society Going Global, Siemens STEM Academy, U.S. Naval Academy SET Sail, and NJSTA Maitland P. Simmons Memorial Award Summer Institute. Unit themes include weather and climate, introduction to general chemistry and biochemistry, and cells and heredity. Each if the three 12-week units has embedded engineering challenges inspired by current events, community needs, and/or the work of scientists. The unit segments begin with a problem, progress to

  12. The Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carenton-Madiec, Nicolas; Denvil, Sébastien; Greenslade, Mark

    2015-04-01

    The Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) Peer-to-Peer (P2P) enterprise system is a collaboration that develops, deploys and maintains software infrastructure for the management, dissemination, and analysis of model output and observational data. ESGF's primary goal is to facilitate advancements in Earth System Science. It is an interagency and international effort led by the US Department of Energy (DOE), and co-funded by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Science Foundation (NSF), Infrastructure for the European Network of Earth System Modelling (IS-ENES) and international laboratories such as the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) german Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ), the Australian National University (ANU) National Computational Infrastructure (NCI), Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), and the British Atmospheric Data Center (BADC). Its main mission is to support current CMIP5 activities and prepare for future assesments. The ESGF architecture is based on a system of autonomous and distributed nodes, which interoperate through common acceptance of federation protocols and trust agreements. Data is stored at multiple nodes around the world, and served through local data and metadata services. Nodes exchange information about their data holdings and services, trust each other for registering users and establishing access control decisions. The net result is that a user can use a web browser, connect to any node, and seamlessly find and access data throughout the federation. This type of collaborative working organization and distributed architecture context en-lighted the need of integration and testing processes definition to ensure the quality of software releases and interoperability. This presentation will introduce the ESGF project and demonstrate the range of tools and processes that have been set up to support release management activities.

  13. Near-Earth Space Radiation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xapsos, Michael A.; O'Neill, Patrick M.; O'Brien, T. Paul

    2012-01-01

    Review of models of the near-Earth space radiation environment is presented, including recent developments in trapped proton and electron, galactic cosmic ray and solar particle event models geared toward spacecraft electronics applications.

  14. Final Report. Evaluating the Climate Sensitivity of Dissipative Subgrid-Scale Mixing Processes and Variable Resolution in NCAR's Community Earth System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jablonowski, Christiane [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)

    2015-12-14

    The goals of this project were to (1) assess and quantify the sensitivity and scale-dependency of unresolved subgrid-scale mixing processes in NCAR’s Community Earth System Model (CESM), and (2) to improve the accuracy and skill of forthcoming CESM configurations on modern cubed-sphere and variable-resolution computational grids. The research thereby contributed to the description and quantification of uncertainties in CESM’s dynamical cores and their physics-dynamics interactions.

  15. Tropical Pacific Climate, Carbon, and Ocean Biogeochemical Response to the Central American Seaway in a GFDL Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sentman, L. T.; Dunne, J. P.; Stouffer, R. J.; Krasting, J. P.; Wittenberg, A. T.; Toggweiler, J. R.; Broccoli, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    To explore the tropical Pacific climate, carbon, and ocean biogeochemical response to the shoaling and closure of the Central American Seaway during the Pliocene (5.3-2.6 Ma), we performed a suite of sensitivity experiments using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model, GFDL-ESM2G, varying only the seaway widths and sill depths. These novel ESM simulations include near-final closure of the seaway with a very narrow, 1º grid cell wide opening. Net mass transport through the seaway into the Caribbean is 20.5-23.1 Sv with a deep seaway, but only 14.1 Sv for the wide/shallow seaway because of the inter-basin bi-directional horizontal mass transport. Seaway transport originates from the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in the Pacific and rejoins it in the South Atlantic, reducing the Indonesian Throughflow and transporting heat and salt southward into the South Atlantic, in contrast to present-day and previous seaway simulations. Tropical Pacific mean climate and interannual variability is sensitive to the seaway shoaling, with the largest response to the wider/deeper seaway. In the tropical Pacific, the top 300-m warms 0.4-0.8°C, the equatorial east-west sea surface temperature gradient increases, the north-south sea surface temperature asymmetry at 110°W decreases, thermocline deepens 5-11 m, and the east-west thermocline gradient increases. In the Niño-3 region, ENSO amplitude increases, skewed toward more cold (La Niña) events, El Niño and La Niña develops earlier ( 3 months), the annual cycle weakens and the semi-annual and interannual cycles strengthen from increased symmetry of the north-south sea surface temperature gradient, and atmospheric global teleconnections strengthen with the seaway. The increase in global ocean overturning with the seaway results in a younger average ocean ideal age, reduced dissolved inorganic carbon inventory and marine net primary productivity, and altered inter-basin patterns of surface sediment carbonate

  16. Running climate model on a commercial cloud computing environment: A case study using Community Earth System Model (CESM) on Amazon AWS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiuhong; Huang, Xianglei; Jiao, Chaoyi; Flanner, Mark G.; Raeker, Todd; Palen, Brock

    2017-01-01

    The suites of numerical models used for simulating climate of our planet are usually run on dedicated high-performance computing (HPC) resources. This study investigates an alternative to the usual approach, i.e. carrying out climate model simulations on commercially available cloud computing environment. We test the performance and reliability of running the CESM (Community Earth System Model), a flagship climate model in the United States developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), on Amazon Web Service (AWS) EC2, the cloud computing environment by Amazon.com, Inc. StarCluster is used to create virtual computing cluster on the AWS EC2 for the CESM simulations. The wall-clock time for one year of CESM simulation on the AWS EC2 virtual cluster is comparable to the time spent for the same simulation on a local dedicated high-performance computing cluster with InfiniBand connections. The CESM simulation can be efficiently scaled with the number of CPU cores on the AWS EC2 virtual cluster environment up to 64 cores. For the standard configuration of the CESM at a spatial resolution of 1.9° latitude by 2.5° longitude, increasing the number of cores from 16 to 64 reduces the wall-clock running time by more than 50% and the scaling is nearly linear. Beyond 64 cores, the communication latency starts to outweigh the benefit of distributed computing and the parallel speedup becomes nearly unchanged.

  17. Earth System Model Development and Analysis using FRE-Curator and Live Access Servers: On-demand analysis of climate model output with data provenance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radhakrishnan, A.; Balaji, V.; Schweitzer, R.; Nikonov, S.; O'Brien, K.; Vahlenkamp, H.; Burger, E. F.

    2016-12-01

    There are distinct phases in the development cycle of an Earth system model. During the model development phase, scientists make changes to code and parameters and require rapid access to results for evaluation. During the production phase, scientists may make an ensemble of runs with different settings, and produce large quantities of output, that must be further analyzed and quality controlled for scientific papers and submission to international projects such as the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). During this phase, provenance is a key concern:being able to track back from outputs to inputs. We will discuss one of the paths taken at GFDL in delivering tools across this lifecycle, offering on-demand analysis of data by integrating the use of GFDL's in-house FRE-Curator, Unidata's THREDDS and NOAA PMEL's Live Access Servers (LAS).Experience over this lifecycle suggests that a major difficulty in developing analysis capabilities is only partially the scientific content, but often devoted to answering the questions "where is the data?" and "how do I get to it?". "FRE-Curator" is the name of a database-centric paradigm used at NOAA GFDL to ingest information about the model runs into an RDBMS (Curator database). The components of FRE-Curator are integrated into Flexible Runtime Environment workflow and can be invoked during climate model simulation. The front end to FRE-Curator, known as the Model Development Database Interface (MDBI) provides an in-house web-based access to GFDL experiments: metadata, analysis output and more. In order to provide on-demand visualization, MDBI uses Live Access Servers which is a highly configurable web server designed to provide flexible access to geo-referenced scientific data, that makes use of OPeNDAP. Model output saved in GFDL's tape archive, the size of the database and experiments, continuous model development initiatives with more dynamic configurations add complexity and challenges in providing an on

  18. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 118; Issue 1 ... are essential for qualitative and quantitative analysis of snow cover applications. ... This study also suggests that the suitability of topographic models can not be ...

  19. Implementation of methane cycling for deep-time global warming simulations with the DCESS Earth system model (version 1.2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaffer, Gary; Fernández Villanueva, Esteban; Rondanelli, Roberto; Olaf Pepke Pedersen, Jens; Malskær Olsen, Steffen; Huber, Matthew

    2017-11-01

    Geological records reveal a number of ancient, large and rapid negative excursions of the carbon-13 isotope. Such excursions can only be explained by massive injections of depleted carbon to the Earth system over a short duration. These injections may have forced strong global warming events, sometimes accompanied by mass extinctions such as the Triassic-Jurassic and end-Permian extinctions 201 and 252 million years ago, respectively. In many cases, evidence points to methane as the dominant form of injected carbon, whether as thermogenic methane formed by magma intrusions through overlying carbon-rich sediment or from warming-induced dissociation of methane hydrate, a solid compound of methane and water found in ocean sediments. As a consequence of the ubiquity and importance of methane in major Earth events, Earth system models for addressing such events should include a comprehensive treatment of methane cycling but such a treatment has often been lacking. Here we implement methane cycling in the Danish Center for Earth System Science (DCESS) model, a simplified but well-tested Earth system model of intermediate complexity. We use a generic methane input function that allows variation in input type, size, timescale and ocean-atmosphere partition. To be able to treat such massive inputs more correctly, we extend the model to deal with ocean suboxic/anoxic conditions and with radiative forcing and methane lifetimes appropriate for high atmospheric methane concentrations. With this new model version, we carried out an extensive set of simulations for methane inputs of various sizes, timescales and ocean-atmosphere partitions to probe model behavior. We find that larger methane inputs over shorter timescales with more methane dissolving in the ocean lead to ever-increasing ocean anoxia with consequences for ocean life and global carbon cycling. Greater methane input directly to the atmosphere leads to more warming and, for example, greater carbon dioxide release

  20. Implementation of methane cycling for deep-time global warming simulations with the DCESS Earth system model (version 1.2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Shaffer

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Geological records reveal a number of ancient, large and rapid negative excursions of the carbon-13 isotope. Such excursions can only be explained by massive injections of depleted carbon to the Earth system over a short duration. These injections may have forced strong global warming events, sometimes accompanied by mass extinctions such as the Triassic-Jurassic and end-Permian extinctions 201 and 252 million years ago, respectively. In many cases, evidence points to methane as the dominant form of injected carbon, whether as thermogenic methane formed by magma intrusions through overlying carbon-rich sediment or from warming-induced dissociation of methane hydrate, a solid compound of methane and water found in ocean sediments. As a consequence of the ubiquity and importance of methane in major Earth events, Earth system models for addressing such events should include a comprehensive treatment of methane cycling but such a treatment has often been lacking. Here we implement methane cycling in the Danish Center for Earth System Science (DCESS model, a simplified but well-tested Earth system model of intermediate complexity. We use a generic methane input function that allows variation in input type, size, timescale and ocean–atmosphere partition. To be able to treat such massive inputs more correctly, we extend the model to deal with ocean suboxic/anoxic conditions and with radiative forcing and methane lifetimes appropriate for high atmospheric methane concentrations. With this new model version, we carried out an extensive set of simulations for methane inputs of various sizes, timescales and ocean–atmosphere partitions to probe model behavior. We find that larger methane inputs over shorter timescales with more methane dissolving in the ocean lead to ever-increasing ocean anoxia with consequences for ocean life and global carbon cycling. Greater methane input directly to the atmosphere leads to more warming and, for example

  1. Observation of the Earth system from space

    CERN Document Server

    Flury, Jakob; Reigber, Christoph; Rothacher, Markus; Boedecker, Gerd

    2006-01-01

    In the recent years, space-based observation methods have led to a subst- tially improved understanding of Earth system. Geodesy and geophysics are contributing to this development by measuring the temporal and spatial va- ations of the Earth's shape, gravity ?eld, and magnetic ?eld, as well as at- sphere density. In the frame of the GermanR&D programmeGEOTECHNO- LOGIEN,researchprojectshavebeen launchedin2002relatedto the satellite missions CHAMP, GRACE and ESA's planned mission GOCE, to comp- mentary terrestrial and airborne sensor systems and to consistent and stable high-precision global reference systems for satellite and other techniques. In the initial 3-year phase of the research programme (2002-2004), new gravity ?eld models have been computed from CHAMP and GRACE data which outperform previous models in accuracy by up to two orders of m- nitude for the long and medium wavelengths. A special highlight is the - termination of seasonal gravity variations caused by changes in continental water masses...

  2. Age of the earth and solar system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manhes, G.

    1977-01-01

    The history of chemical element formation and radiochronology is given. The study of Pb isotope composition evolution enables to estimate the age of the earth. A series of galena of known ages was measured. By means of a model, it is possible to determine the initial isotope composition of Pb on the earth and the age of the earth. On the other hand, the analysis of stony meteorites provides a Pb isotope composition higher than the earth value. A comparison of the data shows a fundamental transition at 4.55 10 9 years [fr

  3. Foundations for a multiscale collaborative Earth model

    KAUST Repository

    Afanasiev, M.; Peter, Daniel; Sager, K.; Simut, S.; Ermert, L.; Krischer, L.; Fichtner, A.

    2015-01-01

    . The CSEM as a computational framework is intended to help bridging the gap between local, regional and global tomography, and to contribute to the development of a global multiscale Earth model. While the current construction serves as a first proof

  4. Evaluating litter decomposition and soil organic matter dynamics in earth system models: contrasting analysis of long-term litter decomposition and steady-state soil carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonan, G. B.; Wieder, W. R.

    2012-12-01

    Decomposition is a large term in the global carbon budget, but models of the earth system that simulate carbon cycle-climate feedbacks are largely untested with respect to litter decomposition. Here, we demonstrate a protocol to document model performance with respect to both long-term (10 year) litter decomposition and steady-state soil carbon stocks. First, we test the soil organic matter parameterization of the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4), the terrestrial component of the Community Earth System Model, with data from the Long-term Intersite Decomposition Experiment Team (LIDET). The LIDET dataset is a 10-year study of litter decomposition at multiple sites across North America and Central America. We show results for 10-year litter decomposition simulations compared with LIDET for 9 litter types and 20 sites in tundra, grassland, and boreal, conifer, deciduous, and tropical forest biomes. We show additional simulations with DAYCENT, a version of the CENTURY model, to ask how well an established ecosystem model matches the observations. The results reveal large discrepancy between the laboratory microcosm studies used to parameterize the CLM4 litter decomposition and the LIDET field study. Simulated carbon loss is more rapid than the observations across all sites, despite using the LIDET-provided climatic decomposition index to constrain temperature and moisture effects on decomposition. Nitrogen immobilization is similarly biased high. Closer agreement with the observations requires much lower decomposition rates, obtained with the assumption that nitrogen severely limits decomposition. DAYCENT better replicates the observations, for both carbon mass remaining and nitrogen, without requirement for nitrogen limitation of decomposition. Second, we compare global observationally-based datasets of soil carbon with simulated steady-state soil carbon stocks for both models. The models simulations were forced with observationally-based estimates of annual

  5. Simulating the 2012 High Plains Drought Using Three Single Column Model Versions of the Community Earth System Model (SCM-CESM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina, I. D.; Denning, S.

    2014-12-01

    The impact of changes in the frequency and severity of drought on fresh water sustainability is a great concern for many regions of the world. One such location is the High Plains, where the local economy is primarily driven by fresh water withdrawals from the Ogallala Aquifer, which accounts for approximately 30% of total irrigation withdrawals from all U.S. aquifers combined. Modeling studies that focus on the feedback mechanisms that control the climate and eco-hydrology during times of drought are limited in the sense that they use conventional General Circulation Models (GCMs) with grid length scales ranging from one hundred to several hundred kilometers. Additionally, these models utilize crude statistical parameterizations of cloud processes for estimating sub-grid fluxes of heat and moisture and have a poor representation of land surface heterogeneity. For this research, we focus on the 2012 High Plains drought, and will perform numerical simulations using three single column model versions of the Community Earth System Model (SCM-CESM) at multiple sites overlying the Ogallala Aquifer for the 2010-2012 period. In the first version of SCM-CESM, CESM will be used in standard mode (Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) coupled to a single instance of the Community Land Model (CLM)), secondly, CESM will be used in Super-Parameterized mode (SP-CESM), where a cloud resolving model (CRM consists of 32 atmospheric columns) replaces the standard CAM atmospheric parameterization and is coupled to a single instance of CLM, and thirdly, CESM is used in "Multi Instance" SP-CESM mode, where an instance of CLM is coupled to each CRM column of SP-CESM (32 CRM columns coupled to 32 instances of CLM). To assess the physical realism of the land-atmosphere feedbacks simulated at each site by all versions of SCM-CESM, differences in simulated energy and moisture fluxes will be computed between years for the 2010-2012 period, and will be compared to differences calculated using

  6. Earth System Science: An Integrated Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Environment, 2001

    2001-01-01

    Details how an understanding of the role played by human activities in global environmental change has emerged. Presents information about the earth system provided by research programs. Speculates about the direction of future research. (DDR)

  7. Mi-STAR Unit Challenges serve as a model for integrating earth science and systems thinking in a Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) aligned curriculum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gochis, E. E.; Tubman, S.; Matthys, T.; Bluth, G.; Oppliger, D.; Danhoff, B.; Huntoon, J. E.

    2017-12-01

    Michigan Science Teaching and Assessment Reform (Mi-STAR) is developing an NGSS-aligned middle school curriculum and associated teacher professional learning program in which science is taught and learned as an integrated body of knowledge that can be applied to address societal issues. With the generous support of the Herbert H. and Grace A. Dow Foundation, Mi-STAR has released several pilot-tested units through the Mi-STAR curriculum portal at mi-star.mtu.edu. Each of these units focuses on an ongoing `Unit Challenge' investigation that integrates STEM content across disciplinary boundaries, stimulates interest, and engages students in using scientific practices to address 21st century challenges. Each Mi-STAR unit is connected to a Unifying NGSS Crosscutting Concept (CCC) that allows students to recognize the concepts that are related to the phenomena or problems under investigation. In the 6th grade, students begin with an exploration of the CCC Systems and System Models. Through repeated applications across units, students refine their understanding of what a system is and how to model a complex Earth system. An example 6th grade unit entitled "Water on the Move: The Water Cycle," provides an example of how Mi-STAR approaches the use of Unifying CCCs and Unit Challenges to enhance middle school students' understanding of the interconnections of Earth system processes and human activities. Throughout the unit, students use a series of hands-on explorations and simulations to explore the hydrologic cycle and how human activity can alter Earth systems. Students develop new knowledge through repeated interactions with the Unit Challenge, which requires development of system models and construction of evidence-based arguments related to flooding problems in a local community. Students have the opportunity to make predictions about how proposed land-use management practices (e.g. development of a skate-park, rain garden, soccer field, etc.) can alter the earth-system

  8. The computational challenges of Earth-system science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Alan; Steenman-Clark, Lois

    2002-06-15

    The Earth system--comprising atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere and biosphere--is an immensely complex system, involving processes and interactions on a wide range of space- and time-scales. To understand and predict the evolution of the Earth system is one of the greatest challenges of modern science, with success likely to bring enormous societal benefits. High-performance computing, along with the wealth of new observational data, is revolutionizing our ability to simulate the Earth system with computer models that link the different components of the system together. There are, however, considerable scientific and technical challenges to be overcome. This paper will consider four of them: complexity, spatial resolution, inherent uncertainty and time-scales. Meeting these challenges requires a significant increase in the power of high-performance computers. The benefits of being able to make reliable predictions about the evolution of the Earth system should, on their own, amply repay this investment.

  9. The seasonal cycle of pCO2 and CO2 fluxes in the Southern Ocean: diagnosing anomalies in CMIP5 Earth system models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Precious Mongwe, N.; Vichi, Marcello; Monteiro, Pedro M. S.

    2018-05-01

    The Southern Ocean forms an important component of the Earth system as a major sink of CO2 and heat. Recent studies based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5) Earth system models (ESMs) show that CMIP5 models disagree on the phasing of the seasonal cycle of the CO2 flux (FCO2) and compare poorly with available observation products for the Southern Ocean. Because the seasonal cycle is the dominant mode of CO2 variability in the Southern Ocean, its simulation is a rigorous test for models and their long-term projections. Here we examine the competing roles of temperature and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) as drivers of the seasonal cycle of pCO2 in the Southern Ocean to explain the mechanistic basis for the seasonal biases in CMIP5 models. We find that despite significant differences in the spatial characteristics of the mean annual fluxes, the intra-model homogeneity in the seasonal cycle of FCO2 is greater than observational products. FCO2 biases in CMIP5 models can be grouped into two main categories, i.e., group-SST and group-DIC. Group-SST models show an exaggeration of the seasonal rates of change of sea surface temperature (SST) in autumn and spring during the cooling and warming peaks. These higher-than-observed rates of change of SST tip the control of the seasonal cycle of pCO2 and FCO2 towards SST and result in a divergence between the observed and modeled seasonal cycles, particularly in the Sub-Antarctic Zone. While almost all analyzed models (9 out of 10) show these SST-driven biases, 3 out of 10 (namely NorESM1-ME, HadGEM-ES and MPI-ESM, collectively the group-DIC models) compensate for the solubility bias because of their overly exaggerated primary production, such that biologically driven DIC changes mainly regulate the seasonal cycle of FCO2.

  10. Orbital Noise in the Earth System and Climate Fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Han-Shou; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Frequency noise in the variations of the Earth's obliquity (tilt) can modulate the insolation signal for climate change. Including this frequency noise effect on the incoming solar radiation, we have applied an energy balance climate model to calculate the climate fluctuations for the past one million years. Model simulation results are in good agreement with the geologically observed paleoclimate data. We conclude that orbital noise in the Earth system may be the major cause of the climate fluctuation cycles.

  11. Earth as an extrasolar planet: Earth model validation using EPOXI earth observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Tyler D; Meadows, Victoria S; Crisp, David; Deming, Drake; A'hearn, Michael F; Charbonneau, David; Livengood, Timothy A; Seager, Sara; Barry, Richard K; Hearty, Thomas; Hewagama, Tilak; Lisse, Carey M; McFadden, Lucy A; Wellnitz, Dennis D

    2011-06-01

    The EPOXI Discovery Mission of Opportunity reused the Deep Impact flyby spacecraft to obtain spatially and temporally resolved visible photometric and moderate resolution near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopic observations of Earth. These remote observations provide a rigorous validation of whole-disk Earth model simulations used to better understand remotely detectable extrasolar planet characteristics. We have used these data to upgrade, correct, and validate the NASA Astrobiology Institute's Virtual Planetary Laboratory three-dimensional line-by-line, multiple-scattering spectral Earth model. This comprehensive model now includes specular reflectance from the ocean and explicitly includes atmospheric effects such as Rayleigh scattering, gas absorption, and temperature structure. We have used this model to generate spatially and temporally resolved synthetic spectra and images of Earth for the dates of EPOXI observation. Model parameters were varied to yield an optimum fit to the data. We found that a minimum spatial resolution of ∼100 pixels on the visible disk, and four categories of water clouds, which were defined by using observed cloud positions and optical thicknesses, were needed to yield acceptable fits. The validated model provides a simultaneous fit to Earth's lightcurve, absolute brightness, and spectral data, with a root-mean-square (RMS) error of typically less than 3% for the multiwavelength lightcurves and residuals of ∼10% for the absolute brightness throughout the visible and NIR spectral range. We have extended our validation into the mid-infrared by comparing the model to high spectral resolution observations of Earth from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder, obtaining a fit with residuals of ∼7% and brightness temperature errors of less than 1 K in the atmospheric window. For the purpose of understanding the observable characteristics of the distant Earth at arbitrary viewing geometry and observing cadence, our validated forward model can be

  12. An improved land biosphere module for use in the DCESS Earth system model (version 1.1 with application to the last glacial termination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Eichinger

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Interactions between the land biosphere and the atmosphere play an important role for the Earth's carbon cycle and thus should be considered in studies of global carbon cycling and climate. Simple approaches are a useful first step in this direction but may not be applicable for certain climatic conditions. To improve the ability of the reduced-complexity Danish Center for Earth System Science (DCESS Earth system model DCESS to address cold climate conditions, we reformulated the model's land biosphere module by extending it to include three dynamically varying vegetation zones as well as a permafrost component. The vegetation zones are formulated by emulating the behaviour of a complex land biosphere model. We show that with the new module, the size and timing of carbon exchanges between atmosphere and land are represented more realistically in cooling and warming experiments. In particular, we use the new module to address carbon cycling and climate change across the last glacial transition. Within the constraints provided by various proxy data records, we tune the DCESS model to a Last Glacial Maximum state and then conduct transient sensitivity experiments across the transition under the application of explicit transition functions for high-latitude ocean exchange, atmospheric dust, and the land ice sheet extent. We compare simulated time evolutions of global mean temperature, pCO2, atmospheric and oceanic carbon isotopes as well as ocean dissolved oxygen concentrations with proxy data records. In this way we estimate the importance of different processes across the transition with emphasis on the role of land biosphere variations and show that carbon outgassing from permafrost and uptake of carbon by the land biosphere broadly compensate for each other during the temperature rise of the early last deglaciation.

  13. Smouldering Subsurface Fires in the Earth System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rein, Guillermo

    2010-05-01

    Smouldering fires, the slow, low-temperature, flameless form of combustion, are an important phenomena in the Earth system. These fires propagate slowly through organic layers of the forest ground and are responsible for 50% or more of the total biomass consumed during wildfires. Only after the 2002 study of the 1997 extreme haze event in South-East Asia, the scientific community recognised the environmental and economic threats posed by subsurface fires. This was caused by the spread of vast biomass fires in Indonesia, burning below the surface for months during the El Niño climate event. It has been calculated that these fires released between 0.81 and 2.57 Gton of carbon gases (13-40% of global emissions). Large smouldering fires are rare events at the local scale but occur regularly at a global scale. Once ignited, they are particularly difficult to extinguish despite extensive rains or fire-fighting attempts and can persist for long periods of time (months, years) spreading over very extensive areas of forest and deep into the soil. Indeed, these are the oldest continuously burning fires on Earth. Earth scientists are interested in smouldering fires because they destroy large amounts of biomass and cause greater damage to the soil ecosystem than flaming fires do. Moreover, these fires cannot be detected with current satellite remote sensing technologies causing inconsistencies between emission inventories and model predictions. Organic soils sustain smouldering fire (hummus, duff, peat and coal) which total carbon pool exceeds that of the world's forests or the atmosphere. This have important implications for climate change. Warmer temperatures at high latitudes are resulting in unprecedented permafrost thaw that is leaving large soil carbon pools exposed to fires. Because the CO2 flux from peat fires has been measured to be about 3000 times larger that the natural degradation flux, permafrost thaw is a risk for greater carbon release by fire and subsequently

  14. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 123; Issue 5 .... Current products based on Ocean General Circulation Models like ECCO2 ... An assessment of wind forcing impact on a spectral wave model for the Indian Ocean .... variability over India and its subregions using a regional climate model (RegCM3).

  15. Journal of Earth Journal of Earth System Science System Science

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    0008471

    Predictive modelling of the spatial pattern of past and future forest cover changes in India. C Sudhakar ... Effects of climate change on spring wheat phenophase and water requirement in Heihe .... interface and magnetic cloud driven storms.

  16. Earth and space science information systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zygielbaum, A. (ed.) (Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California 91109 (United States))

    1993-01-01

    These proceedings represent papers presented at the Earth and Space Science Information Systems (ESSIS) Conference. The attendees included scientists and engineers across many disciplines. New trends in information organizations were reviewed. One hundred and twenty eight papers are included in this volume, out of these two have been abstracted for the Energy Science and Technology database. The topics covered in the papers range from Earth science and technology to astronomy and space, planetary science and education. (AIP)

  17. Overview of NASA's Earth Science Data Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Kenneth

    2004-01-01

    For over the last 15 years, NASA's Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) has devoted a tremendous effort to design and build the Earth Observing System (EOS) Data and Information System (EOSDIS) to acquire, process, archive and distribute the data of the EOS series of satellites and other ESE missions and field programs. The development of EOSDIS began with an early prototype to support NASA data from heritage missions and progressed through a formal development process to today's system that supports the data from multiple missions including Landsat 7, Terra, Aqua, SORCE and ICESat. The system is deployed at multiple Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs) and its current holdings are approximately 4.5 petabytes. The current set of unique users requesting EOS data and information products exceeds 2 million. While EOSDIS has been the centerpiece of NASA's Earth Science Data Systems, other initiatives have augmented the services of EOSDIS and have impacted its evolution and the future directions of data systems within the ESE. ESDIS had an active prototyping effort and has continued to be involved in the activities of the Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO). In response to concerns from the science community that EOSDIS was too large and monolithic, the ESE initiated the Earth Science Information Partners (ESP) Federation Experiment that funded a series of projects to develop specialized products and services to support Earth science research and applications. Last year, the enterprise made 41 awards to successful proposals to the Research, Education and Applications Solutions Network (REASON) Cooperative Agreement Notice to continue and extend the ESP activity. The ESE has also sponsored a formulation activity called the Strategy for the Evolution of ESE Data Systems (SEEDS) to develop approaches and decision support processes for the management of the collection of data system and service providers of the enterprise. Throughout the development of its earth science

  18. Design and installation of earth energy systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loggia, S; Adragna, M; Coyle, S; Foley, C; Hawryn, S; Martin, A; McConnell, J [eds.

    2002-07-01

    This first edition of the Canadian Standards Association (CSA) Standard C448 Series, replaces CSA Standards CAN/CSA-C445-M92 entitled Design and Installation of Earth Energy Heat Pump Systems for Residential and Other Small Buildings, as well as C447-94 entitled Design and Installation of Earth Energy Heat Pump Systems for Commercial and Institutional Buildings. This standard document consists of three parts: (C448.1) Design and installation of earth energy systems for commercial and institutional buildings; (C448.2) Design and installation of earth energy systems for residential and small buildings; and, (C448.3) Design and installation of underground thermal energy storage systems for commercial and institutional buildings. In C448.1, the requirements applicable to any system falling within the scope of the C448 series were included. Alternative requirements for houses and small buildings were added in C448.2. It was noted that either standard may be implemented. The standards applicable to the intentional storage of energy in the earth for later use were presented in C448.3. This latter section includes a brief introduction on underground thermal energy storage (UTES). tabs.

  19. Earth observing system - Concepts and implementation strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartle, R. E.

    1986-01-01

    The concepts of an Earth Observing System (EOS), an information system being developed by the EOS Science and Mission Requirements Working Group for international use and planned to begin in the 1990s, are discussed. The EOS is designed to study the factors that control the earth's hydrologic cycle, biochemical cycles, and climatologic processes by combining the measurements from remote sensing instruments, in situ measurement devices, and a data and information system. Three EOS platforms are planned to be launched into low, polar, sun-synchronous orbits during the Space Station's Initial Operating Configuration, one to be provided by ESA and two by the United States.

  20. Inclusion of ecologically based trait variation in plant functional types reduces the projected land carbon sink in an earth system model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verheijen, Lieneke M; Aerts, Rien; Brovkin, Victor; Cavender-Bares, Jeannine; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Kattge, Jens; van Bodegom, Peter M

    2015-08-01

    Earth system models demonstrate large uncertainty in projected changes in terrestrial carbon budgets. The lack of inclusion of adaptive responses of vegetation communities to the environment has been suggested to hamper the ability of modeled vegetation to adequately respond to environmental change. In this study, variation in functional responses of vegetation has been added to an earth system model (ESM) based on ecological principles. The restriction of viable mean trait values of vegetation communities by the environment, called 'habitat filtering', is an important ecological assembly rule and allows for determination of global scale trait-environment relationships. These relationships were applied to model trait variation for different plant functional types (PFTs). For three leaf traits (specific leaf area, maximum carboxylation rate at 25 °C, and maximum electron transport rate at 25 °C), relationships with multiple environmental drivers, such as precipitation, temperature, radiation, and CO2 , were determined for the PFTs within the Max Planck Institute ESM. With these relationships, spatiotemporal variation in these formerly fixed traits in PFTs was modeled in global change projections (IPCC RCP8.5 scenario). Inclusion of this environment-driven trait variation resulted in a strong reduction of the global carbon sink by at least 33% (2.1 Pg C yr(-1) ) from the 2nd quarter of the 21st century onward compared to the default model with fixed traits. In addition, the mid- and high latitudes became a stronger carbon sink and the tropics a stronger carbon source, caused by trait-induced differences in productivity and relative respirational costs. These results point toward a reduction of the global carbon sink when including a more realistic representation of functional vegetation responses, implying more carbon will stay airborne, which could fuel further climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Earth Observing System, Conclusions and Recommendations

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-01-01

    The following Earth Observing Systems (E.O.S.) recommendations were suggested: (1) a program must be initiated to ensure that present time series of Earth science data are maintained and continued. (2) A data system that provides easy, integrated, and complete access to past, present, and future data must be developed as soon as possible. (3) A long term research effort must be sustained to study and understand these time series of Earth observations. (4) The E.O.S. should be established as an information system to carry out those aspects of the above recommendations which go beyond existing and currently planned activities. (5) The scientific direction of the E.O.S. should be established and continued through an international scientific steering committee.

  2. Global Change and the Earth System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollack, Henry N.

    2004-08-01

    The Earth system in recent years has come to mean the complex interactions of the atmosphere, biosphere, lithosphere and hydrosphere, through an intricate network of feedback loops. This system has operated over geologic time, driven principally by processes with long time scales. Over the lifetime of the solar system, the Sun has slowly become more radiant, and the geography of continents and oceans basins has evolved via plate tectonics. This geography has placed a first-order constraint on the circulation of ocean waters, and thus has strongly influenced regional and global climate. At shorter time scales, the Earth system has been influenced by Milankovitch orbital factors and occasional exogenous events such as bolide impacts. Under these influences the system chugged along for eons, until some few hundred thousand years ago, when one remarkable species evolved: Homo sapiens. As individuals, humans are of course insignificant in shaping the Earth system, but collectively the six billion human occupants of the planet now rival ``natural'' processes in modifying the Earth system. This profound human influence underlies the dubbing of the present epoch of geologic history as the ``Anthropocene.''

  3. NASA's Earth Observing Data and Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Andrew E.; Behnke, Jeanne; Lowe, Dawn; Ramapriyan, H. K.

    2009-01-01

    NASA's Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) has been a central component of NASA Earth observation program for over 10 years. It is one of the largest civilian science information system in the US, performing ingest, archive and distribution of over 3 terabytes of data per day much of which is from NASA s flagship missions Terra, Aqua and Aura. The system supports a variety of science disciplines including polar processes, land cover change, radiation budget, and most especially global climate change. The EOSDIS data centers, collocated with centers of science discipline expertise, archive and distribute standard data products produced by science investigator-led processing systems. Key to the success of EOSDIS is the concept of core versus community requirements. EOSDIS supports a core set of services to meet specific NASA needs and relies on community-developed services to meet specific user needs. EOSDIS offers a metadata registry, ECHO (Earth Observing System Clearinghouse), through which the scientific community can easily discover and exchange NASA s Earth science data and services. Users can search, manage, and access the contents of ECHO s registries (data and services) through user-developed and community-tailored interfaces or clients. The ECHO framework has become the primary access point for cross-Data Center search-and-order of EOSDIS and other Earth Science data holdings archived at the EOSDIS data centers. ECHO s Warehouse Inventory Search Tool (WIST) is the primary web-based client for discovering and ordering cross-discipline data from the EOSDIS data centers. The architecture of the EOSDIS provides a platform for the publication, discovery, understanding and access to NASA s Earth Observation resources and allows for easy integration of new datasets. The EOSDIS also has developed several methods for incorporating socioeconomic data into its data collection. Over the years, we have developed several methods for determining

  4. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 121; Issue 4 ... Monsoon sensitivity to aerosol direct radiative forcing in the community atmosphere model .... Influences of the boundary layer evolution on surface ozone variations at a .... and its comparison with global geopotential models and GPS-levelling data.

  5. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 117; Issue 4. Simultaneous transport of water and solutes under transient unsaturated flow conditions – A case study ... Keywords. Hydraulic conductivity; infiltration; leaching; Malaprabha; modeling; permeability; salinity; solute transport; SWIM model; water flow.

  6. Earth Observing Data System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klene, Stephan

    2016-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) acquires and distributes an abundance of Earth science data on a daily basis to a diverse user community worldwide. The NASA Big Earth Data Initiative (BEDI) is an effort to make the acquired science data more discoverable, accessible, and usable. This presentation will provide a brief introduction to the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) project and the nature of advances that have been made by BEDI to other Federal Users.

  7. Earth System Science Education Interdisciplinary Partnerships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruzek, M.; Johnson, D. R.

    2002-05-01

    Earth system science in the classroom is the fertile crucible linking science with societal needs for local, national and global sustainability. The interdisciplinary dimension requires fruitful cooperation among departments, schools and colleges within universities and among the universities and the nation's laboratories and agencies. Teaching and learning requires content which brings together the basic and applied sciences with mathematics and technology in addressing societal challenges of the coming decades. Over the past decade remarkable advances have emerged in information technology, from high bandwidth Internet connectivity to raw computing and visualization power. These advances which have wrought revolutionary capabilities and resources are transforming teaching and learning in the classroom. With the launching of NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) the amount and type of geophysical data to monitor the Earth and its climate are increasing dramatically. The challenge remains, however, for skilled scientists and educators to interpret this information based upon sound scientific perspectives and utilize it in the classroom. With an increasing emphasis on the application of data gathered, and the use of the new technologies for practical benefit in the lives of ordinary citizens, there comes the even more basic need for understanding the fundamental state, dynamics, and complex interdependencies of the Earth system in mapping valid and relevant paths to sustainability. Technology and data in combination with the need to understand Earth system processes and phenomena offer opportunities for new and productive partnerships between researchers and educators to advance the fundamental science of the Earth system and in turn through discovery excite students at all levels in the classroom. This presentation will discuss interdisciplinary partnership opportunities for educators and researchers at the undergraduate and graduate levels.

  8. Integrating components of the earth system to model global climate changes: implications for the simulation of the climate of the next million years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duplessy, J.C.

    2009-01-01

    The climate system is complex because it is made up of several components (atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, continental surface, ice sheets), each of which has its own response time. The paleo-climate record provides ample evidence that these components interact nonlinearly with each other and also with global biogeochemical cycles, which drive greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere. Forecasting the evolution of future climate is therefore an extremely complex problem. In addition, since the nineteenth century, human activities are releasing great quantities of greenhouse gases (CO 2 , CH 4 , CFC, etc.) into the atmosphere. As a consequence, the atmospheric content of these gases has tremendously increased. As they have a strong greenhouse effect, their concentration is now large enough to perturb the natural evolution of the earth's climate. In this paper, we shall review the strategy which has been used to develop and validate tools that would allow to simulate the future long-term behaviour of the Earth's climate. This strategy rests on two complementary approaches: developing numerical models of the climate system and validating them by comparing their output with present-day meteorological data and paleo-climatic reconstructions. We shall then evaluate the methods available to simulate climate at the regional scale and the major uncertainties that must be solved to reasonable estimate the long-term evolution of a region, which would receive a geological repository for nuclear wastes. (author)

  9. The fire-vegetation-climate system: how ecology can contribute to earth system science

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Archibald, S

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available and future state of global vegetation. A key complexity that is currently not well captured by Earth System models is that vegetation is not always deterministically responsive to climate and soils. Feedbacks within the Earth System, top-down controls...

  10. Apollo experience report: Earth landing system

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, R. B.

    1973-01-01

    A brief discussion of the development of the Apollo earth landing system and a functional description of the system are presented in this report. The more significant problems that were encountered during the program, the solutions, and, in general, the knowledge that was gained are discussed in detail. Two appendixes presenting a detailed description of the various system components and a summary of the development and the qualification test programs are included.

  11. Evolving NASA's Earth Science Data Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, J.; Behnke, J.; Murphy, K. J.; Lowe, D. R.

    2013-12-01

    NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System Project (ESDIS) is charged with managing, maintaining, and evolving NASA's Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) and is responsible for processing, archiving, and distributing NASA Earth science data. The system supports a multitude of missions and serves diverse science research and other user communities. Keeping up with ever-changing information technology and figuring out how to leverage those changes across such a large system in order to continuously improve and meet the needs of a diverse user community is a significant challenge. Maintaining and evolving the system architecture and infrastructure is a continuous and multi-layered effort. It requires a balance between a "top down" management paradigm that provides a coherent system view and maintaining the managerial, technological, and functional independence of the individual system elements. This presentation will describe some of the key elements of the current system architecture, some of the strategies and processes we employ to meet these challenges, current and future challenges, and some ideas for meeting those challenges.

  12. Rotational modes of a simple Earth model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seyed-Mahmoud, B.; Rochester, M. G.; Rogister, Y. J. G.

    2017-12-01

    We study the tilt-over mode (TOM), the spin-over mode (SOM), the free core nutation (FCN), and their relationships to each other using a simple Earth model with a homogeneous and incompressible liquid core and a rigid mantle. Analytical solutions for the periods of these modes as well as that of the Chandler wobble is found for the Earth model. We show that the FCN is the same mode as the SOM of a wobbling Earth. The reduced pressure, in terms of which the vector momentum equation is known to reduce to a scalar second order differential equation (the so called Poincaŕe equation), is used as the independent variable. Analytical solutions are then found for the displacement eigenfucntions in a meridional plane of the liquid core for the aforementioned modes. We show that the magnitude of motion in the mantle during the FCN is comparable to that in the liquid core, hence very small. The displacement eigenfunctions for these aforementioned modes as well as those for the free inner core nutation (FICN), computed numerically, are also given for a three layer Earth model which also includes a rigid but capable of wobbling inner core. We will discuss the slow convergence of the period of the FICN in terms of the characteristic surfaces of the Poincare equation.

  13. Earth Observing System Covariance Realism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaidi, Waqar H.; Hejduk, Matthew D.

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of covariance realism is to properly size a primary object's covariance in order to add validity to the calculation of the probability of collision. The covariance realism technique in this paper consists of three parts: collection/calculation of definitive state estimates through orbit determination, calculation of covariance realism test statistics at each covariance propagation point, and proper assessment of those test statistics. An empirical cumulative distribution function (ECDF) Goodness-of-Fit (GOF) method is employed to determine if a covariance is properly sized by comparing the empirical distribution of Mahalanobis distance calculations to the hypothesized parent 3-DoF chi-squared distribution. To realistically size a covariance for collision probability calculations, this study uses a state noise compensation algorithm that adds process noise to the definitive epoch covariance to account for uncertainty in the force model. Process noise is added until the GOF tests pass a group significance level threshold. The results of this study indicate that when outliers attributed to persistently high or extreme levels of solar activity are removed, the aforementioned covariance realism compensation method produces a tuned covariance with up to 80 to 90% of the covariance propagation timespan passing (against a 60% minimum passing threshold) the GOF tests-a quite satisfactory and useful result.

  14. Modeling of the Earth's gravity field using the New Global Earth Model (NEWGEM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yeong E.; Braswell, W. Danny

    1989-01-01

    Traditionally, the global gravity field was described by representations based on the spherical harmonics (SH) expansion of the geopotential. The SH expansion coefficients were determined by fitting the Earth's gravity data as measured by many different methods including the use of artificial satellites. As gravity data have accumulated with increasingly better accuracies, more of the higher order SH expansion coefficients were determined. The SH representation is useful for describing the gravity field exterior to the Earth but is theoretically invalid on the Earth's surface and in the Earth's interior. A new global Earth model (NEWGEM) (KIM, 1987 and 1988a) was recently proposed to provide a unified description of the Earth's gravity field inside, on, and outside the Earth's surface using the Earth's mass density profile as deduced from seismic studies, elevation and bathymetric information, and local and global gravity data. Using NEWGEM, it is possible to determine the constraints on the mass distribution of the Earth imposed by gravity, topography, and seismic data. NEWGEM is useful in investigating a variety of geophysical phenomena. It is currently being utilized to develop a geophysical interpretation of Kaula's rule. The zeroth order NEWGEM is being used to numerically integrate spherical harmonic expansion coefficients and simultaneously determine the contribution of each layer in the model to a given coefficient. The numerically determined SH expansion coefficients are also being used to test the validity of SH expansions at the surface of the Earth by comparing the resulting SH expansion gravity model with exact calculations of the gravity at the Earth's surface.

  15. 5th Annual Earth System Grid Federation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, Dean N. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-04-01

    The purpose of the Fifth Annual Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) Face-to-Face (F2F) Conference was to present the most recent information on the state of ESGF’s software stack and to identify and address the data needs and gaps for the climate and weather communities that ESGF supports.

  16. Precession of the Earth-Moon System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urbassek, Herbert M.

    2009-01-01

    The precession rate of the Earth-Moon system by the gravitational influence of the Sun is derived. Attention is focussed on a physically transparent but complete presentation accessible to first- or second-year physics students. Both a shortcut and a full analysis are given, which allows the inclusion of this material as an example of the physics…

  17. Development of the AuScope Australian Earth Observing System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rawling, T.

    2017-12-01

    Advances in monitoring technology and significant investment in new national research initiatives, will provide significant new opportunities for delivery of novel geoscience data streams from across the Australian continent over the next decade. The AuScope Australian Earth Observing System (AEOS) is linking field and laboratory infrastructure across Australia to form a national sensor array focusing on the Solid Earth. As such AuScope is working with these programs to deploy observational infrastructure, including MT, passive seismic, and GNSS networks across the entire Australian Continent. Where possible the observational grid will be co-located with strategic basement drilling in areas of shallow cover and tied with national reflection seismic and sampling transects. This integrated suite of distributed earth observation and imaging sensors will provide unprecedented imaging fidelity of our crust, across all length and time scales, to fundamental and applied researchers in the earth, environmental and geospatial sciences. The AEOS will the Earth Science community's Square Kilometer Array (SKA) - a distributed telescope that looks INTO the earth rather than away from it - a 10 million SKA. The AEOS is strongly aligned with other community strategic initiatives including the UNCOVER research program as well as other National Collaborative Research Infrastructure programs such as the Terrestrial Environmental Research Network (TERN) and the Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS) providing an interdisciplinary collaboration platform across the earth and environmental sciences. There is also very close alignment between AuScope and similar international programs such as EPOS, the USArray and EarthCube - potential collaborative linkages we are currently in the process of pursuing more fomally. The AuScope AEOS Infrastructure System is ultimately designed to enable the progressive construction, refinement and ongoing enrichment of a live, "FAIR" four

  18. Ensemble mean climatology of snow darkening effect due to deposition of dust, black carbon, and organic carbon as simulated with the NASA GEOS-5 Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasunari, T. J.; Lau, W. K.; Mahanama, S. P.; Colarco, P. R.; Koster, R. D.; Kim, K.; da Silva, A.

    2013-12-01

    The importance of the snow darkening effect (SDE) caused by solar absorbing aerosols such as dust and black carbon (BC) on climate has been discussed in previous studies. We have developed a snow darkening package for the catchment land surface model coupled to the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5), Earth System Model. Our snow darkening package includes the schemes for snow albedo and mass concentration calculations in polluted snow by dust, BC, and organic carbon (OC) depositions. The snow darkening package is currently available for seasonal snowpack over the model-defined land areas, excluding sea ice and inland of the ice sheets. The depositions of the solar absorbing aerosols are obtained from the GOCART aerosol module in the GEOS-5. Here we show the preliminary results of ensemble mean climatology (EMC) of the full SDE (i.e., dust+BC+OC). Ensemble simulations covering 10-year of 2002-2011 were carried out with the GEOS-5 including and excluding the full SDE for which each has 10 ensemble members. Shortwave radiative forcing (RF) at the top of atmosphere under all-sky condition for the 10-member EMC of the full SDE was relatively larger over Europe, Central Asia (CA), the Himalayas, the Tibetan Plateau (TP), East Asia (EA), Eastern Siberia (ES), the US, and Canadian Arctic. The RF was the strongest over the Himalayas and the TP in the northern hemisphere. The increases of surface air temperature also well correspond to the RF pattern. Larger reductions of snow water equivalent in seasonal snowpack were seen over the Himalayas, the TP, Alaska, Western Canada, and Arctic regions. We will discuss more on the day of the presentation.

  19. Simulating the Earth System Response to Negative Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, R. B.; Milne, J.; Littleton, E. W.; Jones, C.; Canadell, J.; Peters, G. P.; van Vuuren, D.; Davis, S. J.; Jonas, M.; Smith, P.; Ciais, P.; Rogelj, J.; Torvanger, A.; Shrestha, G.

    2016-12-01

    The natural carbon sinks of the land and oceans absorb approximately half the anthropogenic CO2 emitted every year. The CO2 that is not absorbed accumulates in the Earth's atmosphere and traps the suns rays causing an increase in the global mean temperature. Removing this left over CO2 using negative emissions technologies (NETs) has been proposed as a strategy to lessen the accumulating CO2 and avoid dangerous climate change. Using CMIP5 Earth system model simulations this study assessed the impact on the global carbon cycle, and how the Earth system might respond, to negative emissions strategies applied to low emissions scenarios, over different times horizons from the year 2000 to 2300. The modeling results suggest that using NETs to remove atmospheric CO2 over five 50-year time horizons has varying effects at different points in time. The effects of anthropogenic and natural sources and sinks, can result in positive or negative changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Results show that historic emissions and the current state of the Earth System have impacts on the behavior of atmospheric CO2, as do instantaneous anthropogenic emissions. Indeed, varying background scenarios seemed to have a greater effect on atmospheric CO2 than the actual amount and timing of NETs. These results show how NETs interact with the physical climate-carbon cycle system and highlight the need for more research on earth-system dynamics as they relate to carbon sinks and sources and anthropogenic perturbations.

  20. Large-scale, high-performance and cloud-enabled multi-model analytics experiments in the context of the Earth System Grid Federation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiore, S.; Płóciennik, M.; Doutriaux, C.; Blanquer, I.; Barbera, R.; Williams, D. N.; Anantharaj, V. G.; Evans, B. J. K.; Salomoni, D.; Aloisio, G.

    2017-12-01

    The increased models resolution in the development of comprehensive Earth System Models is rapidly leading to very large climate simulations output that pose significant scientific data management challenges in terms of data sharing, processing, analysis, visualization, preservation, curation, and archiving.Large scale global experiments for Climate Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP) have led to the development of the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF), a federated data infrastructure which has been serving the CMIP5 experiment, providing access to 2PB of data for the IPCC Assessment Reports. In such a context, running a multi-model data analysis experiment is very challenging, as it requires the availability of a large amount of data related to multiple climate models simulations and scientific data management tools for large-scale data analytics. To address these challenges, a case study on climate models intercomparison data analysis has been defined and implemented in the context of the EU H2020 INDIGO-DataCloud project. The case study has been tested and validated on CMIP5 datasets, in the context of a large scale, international testbed involving several ESGF sites (LLNL, ORNL and CMCC), one orchestrator site (PSNC) and one more hosting INDIGO PaaS services (UPV). Additional ESGF sites, such as NCI (Australia) and a couple more in Europe, are also joining the testbed. The added value of the proposed solution is summarized in the following: it implements a server-side paradigm which limits data movement; it relies on a High-Performance Data Analytics (HPDA) stack to address performance; it exploits the INDIGO PaaS layer to support flexible, dynamic and automated deployment of software components; it provides user-friendly web access based on the INDIGO Future Gateway; and finally it integrates, complements and extends the support currently available through ESGF. Overall it provides a new "tool" for climate scientists to run multi-model experiments. At the

  1. Validating a 1-D SVAT model in a range of USA and Australian ecosystems: evidence towards its use as a tool to study Earth's system interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petropoulos, G. P.; North, M. R.; Ireland, G.; Srivastava, P. K.; Rendall, D. V.

    2015-03-01

    This paper describes the validation of the SimSphere SVAT model conducted at different ecosystem types in the USA and Australia. Specific focus was given to examining the models' ability in predicting Shortwave Incoming Solar Radiation (Rg), Net Radiation (Rnet), Latent Heat (LE), Sensible Heat (H), Air Temperature at 1.3 m (Tair 1.3 m) and Air Temperature at 50 m (Tair 50 m). Model predictions were compared against corresponding in situ measurements acquired for a total of 72 selected days of the year 2011 obtained from 8 sites belonging to the AmeriFlux (USA) and OzFlux (Australia) monitoring networks. Selected sites were representative of a variety of environmental, biome and climatic conditions, to allow for the inclusion of contrasting conditions in the model evaluation. The application of the model confirmed its high capability in representing the multifarious and complex interactions of the Earth system. Comparisons showed a good agreement between modelled and measured fluxes, especially for the days with smoothed daily flux trends. A good to excellent agreement between the model predictions and the in situ measurements was reported, particularly so for the LE, H, T1.3 m and T 50 m parameters (RMSD = 39.47, 55.06 W m-2, 3.23, 3.77 °C respectively). A systematic underestimation of Rg and Rnet (RMSD = 67.83, 58.69 W m-2, MBE = 67.83, 58.69 W m-2 respectively) was also found. Highest simulation accuracies were obtained for the open woodland savannah and mulga woodland sites for most of the compared parameters. Very high values of the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index were also reported for all parameters ranging from 0.720 to 0.998, suggesting a very good model representation of the observations. To our knowledge, this study presents the first comprehensive validation of SimSphere, particularly so in USA and Australian ecosystem types. Findings are important and timely, given the rapidly expanding use of this model worldwide both as an educational and research

  2. Putting the geology back into Earth models

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaffrey, Kenneth; Holdsworth, Robert; Imber, Jonathan; Clegg, Phillip; De Paola, Nicola; Jones, Richard; Hobbs, Richard; Holliman, Nick; Trinks, Immo

    New digital methods for data capture can now provide photorealistic, spatially precise, and geometrically accurate three-dimensional (3-D) models of rocks exposed at the Earth's surface [Xu et al., 2000; Pringle et al., 2001; Clegg et al., 2005]. These “virtual outcrops” have the potential to create a new form of laboratory-based teaching aids for geoscience students, to help address accessibility issues in fieldwork, and generally to improve public awareness of the spectacular nature of geologic exposures from remote locations worldwide.This article addresses how virtual outcrops can provide calibration, or a quantitative “reality check,” for a new generation of high-resolution predictive models for the Earth's subsurface.

  3. NASA's Earth Observing Data and Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, A. E.; Behnke, J.; Lowe, D.; Ramapriyan, H. K.

    2009-12-01

    NASA’s Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) has been a central component of NASA Earth observation program for over 10 years. It is one of the largest civilian science information system in the US, performing ingest, archive and distribution of over 3 terabytes of data per day much of which is from NASA’s flagship missions Terra, Aqua and Aura. The system supports a variety of science disciplines including polar processes, land cover change, radiation budget, and most especially global climate change. The EOSDIS data centers, collocated with centers of science discipline expertise, archive and distribute standard data products produced by science investigator-led processing systems. Key to the success of EOSDIS is the concept of core versus community requirements. EOSDIS supports a core set of services to meet specific NASA needs and relies on community-developed services to meet specific user needs. EOSDIS offers a metadata registry, ECHO (Earth Observing System Clearinghouse), through which the scientific community can easily discover and exchange NASA’s Earth science data and services. Users can search, manage, and access the contents of ECHO’s registries (data and services) through user-developed and community-tailored interfaces or clients. The ECHO framework has become the primary access point for cross-Data Center search-and-order of EOSDIS and other Earth Science data holdings archived at the EOSDIS data centers. ECHO’s Warehouse Inventory Search Tool (WIST) is the primary web-based client for discovering and ordering cross-discipline data from the EOSDIS data centers. The architecture of the EOSDIS provides a platform for the publication, discovery, understanding and access to NASA’s Earth Observation resources and allows for easy integration of new datasets. The EOSDIS also has developed several methods for incorporating socioeconomic data into its data collection. Over the years, we have developed several methods for

  4. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 123; Issue 7 ... Net short wave and long wave radiative fluxes substantially varied with cloud dynamics, season, .... Impact of over-exploitation on groundwater quality: A case study from .... using large scale climate variables and downscaling models – A case study.

  5. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 123; Issue 1 .... Liquefaction-induced settlement, site effects and damage in the vicinity of Yalova ... Climatic control on extreme sediment transfer from Dokriani Glacier during monsoon, ... India that has been noticed in several global and regional climate models.

  6. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 126; Issue 2 ... Variable influence on the equatorial troposphere associated with SSW using ERA- ... Identification of drought in Dhalai river watershed using MCDM and ANN models ..... Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using ...

  7. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 118; Issue 5 ... Impact of vegetation on the simulation of seasonal monsoon rainfall over the Indian .... On the diurnal ranges of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the north Indian Ocean ... Groundwater flow modelling of Yamuna–Krishni interstream, a part of central ...

  8. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science ... Cloud Motion Wind (CMW) data of METEOSAT satellite and SSM/I surface wind data ... Skills of different mesoscale models over Indian region during monsoon season: Forecast errors ... Impact of vegetation on the simulation of seasonal monsoon rainfall over the Indian ...

  9. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 119; Issue 5 ... Use of objective analysis to estimate winter temperature and precipitation at ... Numerical study for production of space charge within the stratiform cloud .... Estimates of source parameters of 4.9 Kharsali earthquake using waveform modelling.

  10. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 124; Issue 5 ... water cycles and predict the effect of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems, it is ... Application of ANN and fuzzy logic algorithms for streamflow modelling of Savitri .... Influence of nutrient input on the trophic state of a tropical brackish water lagoon.

  11. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 115; Issue 3 ... Modeling of groundwater flow for Mujib aquifer, Jordan ... a cloudburst event with attention to horizontal resolution and the cloud microphysics parameterization. ... Global surface temperature in relation to northeast monsoon rainfall over Tamil Nadu.

  12. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 121; Issue 2 ... Impact of continental meteorology and atmospheric circulation in the ... Rainfall and temperature scenarios for Bangladesh for the middle of 21st century using RegCM ..... Statistical models of interoccurrence times of Iranian earthquakes on the basis ...

  13. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 124; Issue 8. Gravitational attraction of a vertical pyramid model of flat top-and-bottom with depth-wise parabolic density variation. Anand P Gokula Rambhatla G Sastry. Volume 124 Issue 8 December 2015 pp 1735-1744 ...

  14. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 123; Issue 4 .... Hydrologic modelling of the effect of snowmelt and temperature on a ... Spatial control of groundwater contamination, using principal component analysis ..... Forthcoming Articles · Search · Editorial Board · Information for Authors · Subscription ...

  15. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 125; Issue 8 ... On a model simulating lack of hydraulic connection between a man-made reservoir and the ... Depth of water in the reservoir varies as H'+h cos(ωt). ..... exchanges via riverbank filtration by hydrochemical and biological indicators, Assiut, Egypt.

  16. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 125; Issue 1. Simulation of CO2 concentrations at Tsukuba tall tower using WRF-CO2 tracer transport model. Srabanti Ballav Prabir K Patra Yousuke Sawa Hidekazu Matsueda Ahoro Adachi Shigeru Onogi Masayuki Takigawa Utpal K De. Volume 125 Issue 1 ...

  17. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 118; Issue 5. Impact of vegetation on the simulation of seasonal monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent using a regional model. Surya K Dutta Someshwar Das S C Kar U C Mohanty P C Joshi. Volume 118 Issue 5 October 2009 pp 413-440 ...

  18. Modeling stomatal conductance in the earth system: linking leaf water-use efficiency and water transport along the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonan, G. B.; Williams, M.; Fisher, R. A.; Oleson, K. W.

    2014-09-01

    The Ball-Berry stomatal conductance model is commonly used in earth system models to simulate biotic regulation of evapotranspiration. However, the dependence of stomatal conductance (gs) on vapor pressure deficit (Ds) and soil moisture must be empirically parameterized. We evaluated the Ball-Berry model used in the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) and an alternative stomatal conductance model that links leaf gas exchange, plant hydraulic constraints, and the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum (SPA). The SPA model simulates stomatal conductance numerically by (1) optimizing photosynthetic carbon gain per unit water loss while (2) constraining stomatal opening to prevent leaf water potential from dropping below a critical minimum. We evaluated two optimization algorithms: intrinsic water-use efficiency (ΔAn /Δgs, the marginal carbon gain of stomatal opening) and water-use efficiency (ΔAn /ΔEl, the marginal carbon gain of transpiration water loss). We implemented the stomatal models in a multi-layer plant canopy model to resolve profiles of gas exchange, leaf water potential, and plant hydraulics within the canopy, and evaluated the simulations using leaf analyses, eddy covariance fluxes at six forest sites, and parameter sensitivity analyses. The primary differences among stomatal models relate to soil moisture stress and vapor pressure deficit responses. Without soil moisture stress, the performance of the SPA stomatal model was comparable to or slightly better than the CLM Ball-Berry model in flux tower simulations, but was significantly better than the CLM Ball-Berry model when there was soil moisture stress. Functional dependence of gs on soil moisture emerged from water flow along the soil-to-leaf pathway rather than being imposed a priori, as in the CLM Ball-Berry model. Similar functional dependence of gs on Ds emerged from the ΔAn/ΔEl optimization, but not the ΔAn /gs optimization. Two parameters (stomatal efficiency and root hydraulic

  19. EOS Reference Handbook 1999: A Guide to NASA's Earth Science Enterprise and the Earth Observing System

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, M. D. (Editor); Greenstone, R. (Editor)

    2000-01-01

    The content of this handbook includes Earth Science Enterprise; The Earth Observing System; EOS Data and Information System (EOSDIS); Data and Information Policy; Pathfinder Data Sets; Earth Science Information Partners and the Working Prototype-Federation; EOS Data Quality: Calibration and Validation; Education Programs; International Cooperation; Interagency Coordination; Mission Elements; EOS Instruments; EOS Interdisciplinary Science Investigations; and Points-of-Contact.

  20. The use of Multiple Representations to Enhance Student Mental Model Development of a Complex Earth System in an Introductory Geoscience Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sell, K. S.; Heather, M. R.; Herbert, B. E.

    2004-12-01

    Exposing earth system science (ESS) concepts into introductory geoscience courses may present new and unique cognitive learning issues for students including understanding the role of positive and negative feedbacks in system responses to perturbations, spatial heterogeneity, and temporal dynamics, especially when systems exhibit complex behavior. Implicit learning goals of typical introductory undergraduate geoscience courses are more focused on building skill-sets and didactic knowledge in learners than developing a deeper understanding of the dynamics and processes of complex earth systems through authentic inquiry. Didactic teaching coupled with summative assessment of factual knowledge tends to limit student¡¦s understanding of the nature of science, their belief in the relevancy of science to their lives, and encourages memorization and regurgitation; this is especially true among the non-science majors who compose the majority of students in introductory courses within the large university setting. Students organize scientific knowledge and reason about earth systems by manipulating internally constructed mental models. This pilot study focuses on characterizing the impact of inquiry-based learning with multiple representations to foster critical thinking and mental model development about authentic environmental issues of coastal systems in an introductory geoscience course. The research was conducted in nine introductory physical geology laboratory sections (N ˜ 150) at Texas A&M University as part of research connected with the Information Technology in Science (ITS) Center. Participants were randomly placed into experimental and control groups. Experimental groups were exposed to multiple representations including both web-based learning materials (i.e. technology-supported visualizations and analysis of multiple datasets) and physical models, whereas control groups were provided with the traditional ¡workbook style¡" laboratory assignments

  1. Vegetation-climate feedback causes reduced precipitation and tropical rainforest cover in CMIP5 regional Earth system model simulation over Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, M.; Smith, B.; Samuelsson, P.; Rummukainen, M.; Schurgers, G.

    2012-12-01

    We applied a coupled regional climate-vegetation model, RCA-GUESS (Smith et al. 2011), over the CORDEX Africa domain, forced by boundary conditions from a CanESM2 CMIP5 simulation under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The simulations were from 1961 to 2100 and covered the African continent at a horizontal grid spacing of 0.44°. RCA-GUESS simulates changes in the phenology, productivity, relative cover and population structure of up to eight plant function types (PFTs) in response to forcing from the climate part of the model. These vegetation changes feed back to simulated climate through dynamic adjustments in surface energy fluxes and surface properties. Changes in the net ecosystem-atmosphere carbon flux and its components net primary production (NPP), heterotrophic respiration and emissions from biomass burning were also simulated but do not feed back to climate in our model. Constant land cover was assumed. We compared simulations with and without vegetation feedback switched "on" to assess the influence of vegetation-climate feedback on simulated climate, vegetation and ecosystem carbon cycling. Both positive and negative warming feedbacks were identified in different parts of Africa. In the Sahel savannah zone near 15°N, reduced vegetation cover and productivity, and mortality caused by a deterioration of soil water conditions led to a positive warming feedback mediated by decreased evapotranspiration and increased sensible heat flux between vegetation and the atmosphere. In the equatorial rainforest stronghold region of central Africa, a feedback syndrome characterised by reduced plant production and LAI, a dominance shift from tropical trees to grasses, reduced soil water and reduced rainfall was identified. The likely underlying mechanism was a decline in evaporative water recycling associated with sparser vegetation cover, reminiscent of Earth system model studies in which a similar feedback mechanism was simulated to force dieback of tropical

  2. Foundations for a multiscale collaborative Earth model

    KAUST Repository

    Afanasiev, M.

    2015-11-11

    We present a computational framework for the assimilation of local to global seismic data into a consistent model describing Earth structure on all seismically accessible scales. This Collaborative Seismic Earth Model (CSEM) is designed to meet the following requirements: (i) Flexible geometric parametrization, capable of capturing topography and bathymetry, as well as all aspects of potentially resolvable structure, including small-scale heterogeneities and deformations of internal discontinuities. (ii) Independence of any particular wave equation solver, in order to enable the combination of inversion techniques suitable for different types of seismic data. (iii) Physical parametrization that allows for full anisotropy and for variations in attenuation and density. While not all of these parameters are always resolvable, the assimilation of data that constrain any parameter subset should be possible. (iv) Ability to accommodate successive refinements through the incorporation of updates on any scale as new data or inversion techniques become available. (v) Enable collaborative Earth model construction. The structure of the initial CSEM is represented on a variable-resolution tetrahedral mesh. It is assembled from a long-wavelength 3-D global model into which several regional-scale tomographies are embedded. We illustrate the CSEM workflow of successive updating with two examples from Japan and the Western Mediterranean, where we constrain smaller scale structure using full-waveform inversion. Furthermore, we demonstrate the ability of the CSEM to act as a vehicle for the combination of different tomographic techniques with a joint full-waveform and traveltime ray tomography of Europe. This combination broadens the exploitable frequency range of the individual techniques, thereby improving resolution. We perform two iterations of a whole-Earth full-waveform inversion using a long-period reference data set from 225 globally recorded earthquakes. At this early stage

  3. 2016 Earth System Grid Federation Annual Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, Dean N. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-05-10

    The Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) experienced a major setback in June 2015, when it experienced a security incident that brought all systems to a halt for more than half a year. However, federation developers and management committee members turned the incident into an opportunity to dramatically upgrade the system security and functionality and to develop planning and policy documents to guide ESGF evolution and success. Moreover, despite the incident, ESGF developer working teams continue to make strong and significant progress on various enhancement projects that will help ensure ESGF can meet the needs of the climate community in the coming years.

  4. Young Earth System Scientists (YESS) Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, K. A.; Langendijk, G.; Bahar, F.; Huang-Lachmann, J. T.; Osman, M.; Mirsafa, M.; Sonntag, S.

    2017-12-01

    The Young Earth System Scientists (YESS) community is compiled of early career researchers (including students) coming from a range of scientific backgrounds, spanning both natural and social sciences. YESS unifies young researchers in an influential network to give them a collective voice and leverage within the geosciences community, while supporting career development. The YESS community has used its powerful network to provide a unified perspective on the future of Earth system science (Rauser et al. 2017), to be involved in the organization of international conferences, and to engage with existing international structures that coordinate science. Since its founding in Germany in 2010, the YESS community has grown extensively across the globe, with currently almost 1000 members from over 80 countries, and has become truly interdisciplinary. Recently, the organization has carried elections for Regional Representatives and the Executive Committee as part of its self-sustained governance structure. YESS is ready to continue pioneering crucial areas of research which provide solutions to benefit society for the long-term advancement of Earth system science.

  5. Closed model of the earth's magnetosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piddington, J.H.

    1979-01-01

    The existence of large-scale motions within the earth's magnetosphere and that of a long magnetotail were predicted in 1960 as results of a hypothetical frictional interaction between the solar wind and the geomagnetic field. The boundary layer model of this interaction involves the flow of magnetosheath plasma in a magnetospheric boundary layer. The flow is across magnetic field lines, and so the layer must be polarized, with a space charge field nearly balancing the induction field V x B. The space charge tends to discharge through the ionosphere, thus providing some magnetic and related activity as well as the Lorentz frictional force. This closed magnetosphere model has been largely neglected in favor of the reconnection model but is now strongly supported by observational results and their interpretation as follows. (1) The evidence for the reconnection model, increasing activity with a southward interplanetary field and invasion of the polar caps by flare particles, is shown to be equally compatible with the closed field model. (2) The magnetotail grows by the motions of closed flux tubes through the dawn and dusk meridians, a process which depends on the nature of the boundary between magnetosphere and magnetosheath plasmas and perhaps also on the solar wind dynamo. Both of these features depend, in turn, on the direction of the interplanetary magnetic field. (3) Closed field lines entering the tail may be stretched to a few tens of earth radii and then contract back to the corotating magnetosphere. Others enter the long tail and are stretched to hundreds of earth radii and so are pervious to fast solar particles. (4) A new model of the magnetospheric substorm involves the entry of closed field lines into the tail and their rapid return to the corotating magnetosphere. The return is due, first, to the release of their trapped plasma as it becomes electrically polarized and, second, to mounting magnetic and plasma stresses in the inflated magnetotail

  6. The origin of the moon and the early history of the earth - a chemical model. Part 2: The earth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neill, H.St.C.

    1991-01-01

    The geochemical implications for the earth of a giant impact model for the origin of the earth-moon system are discussed, using a mass balance between three components: the proto-earth, the Impactor, and a late veneer. It is argued that the proto-earth accretes from material resembling a high temperature condensate from the solar nebula. Core formation takes place under very reducing conditions, resulting in the mantle of the proto-earth being completely stripped of all elements more siderophile than Fe, and partly depleted in the barely siderophile elements V, Cr, and perhaps Si. The Impactor then collides with the proto-earth, causing vaporisation of both the Impactor and a substantial portion of the earth's mantle. Most of this material recondenses to the earth, but some forms the moon. The Impactor adds most of the complement of the siderophile elements of the present mantle in an oxidized form. The oxidation state of the mantle is set near to its present, oxidized level. Finally, the addition of a late veneer, of composition similar to that of the H-group ordinary chondrites, accounts for the complement of the highly siderophile elements of the present mantle. The model accounts at least semi-quantitatively for the siderophile element abundances of the present mantle. Implications for the composition of the earth's core are discussed; the model predicts that neither S, O, nor Si should be present in sufficient quantities to provide the required light element in the core, whose identity, therefore, remains enigmatic

  7. Modeling radon flux from the earth's surface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schery, S.D.; Wasiolek, M.A.

    1998-01-01

    We report development of a 222 Rn flux density model and its use to estimate the 222 Rn flux density over the earth's land surface. The resulting maps are generated on a grid spacing of 1 0 x 1 0 using as input global data for soil radium, soil moisture, and surface temperature. While only a first approximation, the maps suggest a significant regional variation (a factor of three is not uncommon) and a significant seasonal variation (a factor of two is not uncommon) in 222 Rn flux density over the earth's surface. The estimated average global flux density from ice-free land is 34 ± 9 mBq m -2 s -1 . (author)

  8. From land use to land cover: Restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment - earth system model and the implications for CMIP5 RCP simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Di Vittorio, Alan V. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Chini, Louise M. [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Mao, Jiafu [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Shi, Xiaoying [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Truesdale, John E. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Craig, Anthony P. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Calvin, Katherine V. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Jones, Andrew D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Collins, William D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Edmonds, James A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hurtt, George [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Thornton, Peter E. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Thomson, Allison M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2014-11-27

    Climate projections depend on scenarios of fossil fuel emissions and land use change, and the IPCC AR5 parallel process assumes consistent climate scenarios across Integrated Assessment and Earth System Models (IAMs and ESMs). To facilitate consistency, CMIP5 used a novel land use harmonization to provide ESMs with seamless, 1500-2100 land use trajectories generated by historical data and four IAMs. However, we have identified and partially addressed a major gap in the CMIP5 land coupling design. The CMIP5 Community ESM (CESM) global afforestation is only 22% of RCP4.5 afforestation from 2005 to 2100. Likewise, only 17% of the Global Change Assessment Model’s (GCAM’s) 2040 RCP4.5 afforestation signal, and none of the pasture loss, were transmitted to CESM within a newly integrated model. This is a critical problem because afforestation is necessary for achieving the RCP4.5 climate stabilization. We attempted to rectify this problem by modifying only the ESM component of the integrated model, enabling CESM to simulate 66% of GCAM’s afforestation in 2040, and 94% of GCAM’s pasture loss as grassland and shrubland losses. This additional afforestation increases vegetation carbon gain by 19 PgC and decreases atmospheric CO2 gain by 8 ppmv from 2005 to 2040, implying different climate scenarios between CMIP5 GCAM and CESM. Similar inconsistencies likely exist in other CMIP5 model results, primarily because land cover information is not shared between models, with possible contributions from afforestation exceeding model-specific, potentially viable forest area. Further work to harmonize land cover among models will be required to adequately rectify this problem.

  9. A Compound Model for the Origin of Earth's Water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izidoro, A.; de Souza Torres, K.; Winter, O. C.; Haghighipour, N.

    2013-04-01

    One of the most important subjects of debate in the formation of the solar system is the origin of Earth's water. Comets have long been considered as the most likely source of the delivery of water to Earth. However, elemental and isotopic arguments suggest a very small contribution from these objects. Other sources have also been proposed, among which local adsorption of water vapor onto dust grains in the primordial nebula and delivery through planetesimals and planetary embryos have become more prominent. However, no sole source of water provides a satisfactory explanation for Earth's water as a whole. In view of that, using numerical simulations, we have developed a compound model incorporating both the principal endogenous and exogenous theories, and investigating their implications for terrestrial planet formation and water delivery. Comets are also considered in the final analysis, as it is likely that at least some of Earth's water has cometary origin. We analyze our results comparing two different water distribution models, and complement our study using the D/H ratio, finding possible relative contributions from each source and focusing on planets formed in the habitable zone. We find that the compound model plays an important role by showing greater advantage in the amount and time of water delivery in Earth-like planets.

  10. A COMPOUND MODEL FOR THE ORIGIN OF EARTH'S WATER

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Izidoro, A.; Winter, O. C.; De Souza Torres, K.; Haghighipour, N.

    2013-01-01

    One of the most important subjects of debate in the formation of the solar system is the origin of Earth's water. Comets have long been considered as the most likely source of the delivery of water to Earth. However, elemental and isotopic arguments suggest a very small contribution from these objects. Other sources have also been proposed, among which local adsorption of water vapor onto dust grains in the primordial nebula and delivery through planetesimals and planetary embryos have become more prominent. However, no sole source of water provides a satisfactory explanation for Earth's water as a whole. In view of that, using numerical simulations, we have developed a compound model incorporating both the principal endogenous and exogenous theories, and investigating their implications for terrestrial planet formation and water delivery. Comets are also considered in the final analysis, as it is likely that at least some of Earth's water has cometary origin. We analyze our results comparing two different water distribution models, and complement our study using the D/H ratio, finding possible relative contributions from each source and focusing on planets formed in the habitable zone. We find that the compound model plays an important role by showing greater advantage in the amount and time of water delivery in Earth-like planets.

  11. TOWARD A DETERMINISTIC MODEL OF PLANETARY FORMATION. VI. DYNAMICAL INTERACTION AND COAGULATION OF MULTIPLE ROCKY EMBRYOS AND SUPER-EARTH SYSTEMS AROUND SOLAR-TYPE STARS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ida, S.; Lin, D. N. C.

    2010-01-01

    Radial velocity and transit surveys indicate that solar-type stars bear super-Earths, with masses up to ∼20 M + and periods up to a few months, that are more common than those with Jupiter-mass gas giants. In many cases, these super-Earths are members of multiple-planet systems in which their mutual dynamical interaction has influenced their formation and evolution. In this paper, we modify an existing numerical population synthesis scheme to take into account protoplanetary embryos' interaction with their evolving natal gaseous disks, as well as their close scatterings and resonant interaction with each other. We show that it is possible for a group of compact embryos to emerge interior to the ice line, grow, migrate, and congregate into closely packed convoys which stall in the proximity of their host stars. After the disk-gas depletion, they undergo orbit crossing, close scattering, and giant impacts to form multiple rocky Earths or super-Earths in non-resonant orbits around ∼0.1 AU with moderate eccentricities of ∼0.01-0.1. We suggest that most refractory super-Earths with periods in the range of a few days to weeks may have formed through this process. These super-Earths differ from Neptune-like ice giants by their compact sizes and lack of a substantial gaseous envelope.

  12. Modeling electrical dispersion phenomena in Earth materials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Patella

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available It is illustrated that IP phenomena in rocks can be described using conductivity dispersion models deduced as solutions to a 2nd-order linear differential equation describing the motion of a charged particle immersed in an external electrical field. Five dispersion laws are discussed, namely: the non-resonant positive IP model, which leads to the classical Debye-type dispersion law and by extension to the Cole-Cole model, largely used in current practice; the non-resonant negative IP model, which allows negative chargeability values, known in metals at high frequencies, to be explained as an intrinsic physical property of earth materials in specific field cases; the resonant flat, positive or negative IP models, which can explain the presence of peak effects at specific frequencies superimposed on flat, positive or negative dispersion spectra.

  13. 2017 Updates: Earth Gravitational Model 2020

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, D. E.; Holmes, S. A.; Ingalls, S.; Beale, J.; Presicci, M. R.; Minter, C.

    2017-12-01

    The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency [NGA], in conjunction with its U.S. and international partners, has begun preliminary work on its next Earth Gravitational Model, to replace EGM2008. The new `Earth Gravitational Model 2020' [EGM2020] has an expected public release date of 2020, and will retain the same harmonic basis and resolution as EGM2008. As such, EGM2020 will be essentially an ellipsoidal harmonic model up to degree (n) and order (m) 2159, but will be released as a spherical harmonic model to degree 2190 and order 2159. EGM2020 will benefit from new data sources and procedures. Updated satellite gravity information from the GOCE and GRACE mission, will better support the lower harmonics, globally. Multiple new acquisitions (terrestrial, airborne and shipborne) of gravimetric data over specific geographical areas (Antarctica, Greenland …), will provide improved global coverage and resolution over the land, as well as for coastal and some ocean areas. Ongoing accumulation of satellite altimetry data as well as improvements in the treatment of this data, will better define the marine gravity field, most notably in polar and near-coastal regions. NGA and partners are evaluating different approaches for optimally combining the new GOCE/GRACE satellite gravity models with the terrestrial data. These include the latest methods employing a full covariance adjustment. NGA is also working to assess systematically the quality of its entire gravimetry database, towards correcting biases and other egregious errors. Public release number 15-564

  14. Smouldering Fires in the Earth System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rein, G.

    2012-04-01

    Smouldering fires, the slow, low-temperature, flameless burning, represent the most persistent type of combustion phenomena and the longest continuously fires on Earth system. Indeed, smouldering mega-fires of peatlands occur with some frequency during the dry session in, for example, Indonesia, Canada, Russia, UK and USA. Smouldering fires propagate slowly through organic layers of the ground and can reach depth >5 m if large cracks, natural piping or channel systems exist. It threatens to release sequestered carbon deep into the soil. Once ignited, they are particularly difficult to extinguish despite extensive rains, weather changes or fire-fighting attempts, and can persist for long periods of time (months, years) spreading deep and over extensive areas. Recent figures at the global scale estimate that average annual greenhouse gas emissions from smouldering fires are equivalent to 15% of man-made emissions. These fires are difficult or impossible to detect with current remote sensing methods because the chemistry is significantly different, their thermal radiation signature is much smaller, and the plume is much less buoyant. These wildfires burn fossil fuels and thus are a carbon-positive fire phenomena. This creates feedbacks in the climate system because soil moisture deficit and self-heating are enchanted under warmer climate scenarios and lead to more frequent fires. Warmer temperatures at high latitudes are resulting in more frequent Artic fires. Unprecedented permafrost thaw is leaving large soil carbon pools exposed to smouldering fires for the fist time since millennia. Although interactions between flaming fires and the Earth system have been a central focus, smouldering fires are as important but have received very little attention. DBut differences with flaming fires are important. This paper reviews the current knowledge on smouldering fires in the Earth system regarding combustion dynamics, damage to the soil, emissions, remote sensing and

  15. Effects of primitive photosynthesis on Earth's early climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozaki, Kazumi; Tajika, Eiichi; Hong, Peng K.; Nakagawa, Yusuke; Reinhard, Christopher T.

    2018-01-01

    The evolution of different forms of photosynthetic life has profoundly altered the activity level of the biosphere, radically reshaping the composition of Earth's oceans and atmosphere over time. However, the mechanistic impacts of a primitive photosynthetic biosphere on Earth's early atmospheric chemistry and climate are poorly understood. Here, we use a global redox balance model to explore the biogeochemical and climatological effects of different forms of primitive photosynthesis. We find that a hybrid ecosystem of H2-based and Fe2+-based anoxygenic photoautotrophs—organisms that perform photosynthesis without producing oxygen—gives rise to a strong nonlinear amplification of Earth's methane (CH4) cycle, and would thus have represented a critical component of Earth's early climate system before the advent of oxygenic photosynthesis. Using a Monte Carlo approach, we find that a hybrid photosynthetic biosphere widens the range of geochemical conditions that allow for warm climate states well beyond either of these metabolic processes acting in isolation. Our results imply that the Earth's early climate was governed by a novel and poorly explored set of regulatory feedbacks linking the anoxic biosphere and the coupled H, C and Fe cycles. We suggest that similar processes should be considered when assessing the potential for sustained habitability on Earth-like planets with reducing atmospheres.

  16. Critical Thresholds in Earth-System Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothman, D.

    2017-12-01

    The history of the Earth system is a story of change. Some changesare gradual and benign, but others, especially those associated withcatastrophic mass extinction, are relatively abrupt and destructive.What sets one group apart from the other? Here I hypothesize thatperturbations of Earth's carbon cycle lead to mass extinction if theyexceed either a critical rate at long time scales or a critical sizeat short time scales. By analyzing 31 carbon-isotopic events duringthe last 542 million years, I identify the critical rate with a limitimposed by mass conservation. Further analysis identifies thecrossover timescale separating fast from slow events with thetimescale of the ocean's homeostatic response to a change in pH. Theproduct of the critical rate and the crossover timescale then yieldsthe critical size. The modern critical size for the marine carboncycle is roughly similar to the mass of carbon that human activitieswill likely have added to the oceans by the year 2100.

  17. Earth Observing System (EOS)/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) Structural Math Model - A1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ely, W.

    1996-01-01

    This report presents the description for the NASTRAN finite element for the AMSU-A1 module. The purpose of this report is to document the NASTRAN bulk data deck, transmitted under separate cover. The structural Math Model is to be used by the spacecraft contractor for dynamic loads analysis.

  18. NASA's Earth Observing System Data and Information System - EOSDIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramapriyan, Hampapuram K.

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the work of NASA's Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS), a petabyte-scale archive of environmental data that supports global climate change research. The Earth Science Data Systems provide end-to-end capabilities to deliver data and information products to users in support of understanding the Earth system. The presentation contains photographs from space of recent events, (i.e., the effects of the tsunami in Japan, and the wildfires in Australia.) It also includes details of the Data Centers that provide the data to EOSDIS and Science Investigator-led Processing Systems. Information about the Land, Atmosphere Near-real-time Capability for EOS (LANCE) and some of the uses that the system has made possible are reviewed. Also included is information about how to access the data, and evolutionary plans for the future of the system.

  19. Anthropogenic changes in the surface all-sky UV-B radiation through 1850-2005 simulated by an Earth system model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, S.; Takemura, T.; Sudo, K.; Yokohata, T.; Kawase, H.

    2012-06-01

    The historical anthropogenic change in the surface all-sky UV-B (solar ultraviolet: 280-315 nm) radiation through 1850-2005 is evaluated using an Earth system model. Responses of UV-B dose to anthropogenic changes in ozone and aerosols are separately evaluated using a series of historical simulations including/excluding these changes. Increases in these air pollutants cause reductions in UV-B transmittance, which occur gradually/rapidly before/after 1950 in and downwind of industrial and deforestation regions. Furthermore, changes in ozone transport in the lower stratosphere, which is induced by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, increase ozone concentration in the extratropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. These transient changes work to decrease the amount of UV-B reaching the Earth's surface, counteracting the well-known effect increasing UV-B due to stratospheric ozone depletion, which developed rapidly after ca. 1980. As a consequence, the surface UV-B radiation change between 1850 and 2000 is negative in the tropics and NH extratropics and positive in the SH extratropics. Comparing the contributions of ozone and aerosol changes to the UV-B change, the transient change in ozone absorption of UV-B mainly determines the total change in the surface UV-B radiation at most locations. On the other hand, the aerosol direct and indirect effects on UV-B play an equally important role to that of ozone in the NH mid-latitudes and tropics. A typical example is East Asia (25° N-60° N and 120° E-150° E), where the effect of aerosols (ca. 70%) dominates the total UV-B change.

  20. NASA's Earth Science Data Systems - Lessons Learned and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramapriyan, Hampapuram K.

    2010-01-01

    In order to meet the increasing demand for Earth Science data, NASA has significantly improved the Earth Science Data Systems over the last two decades. This improvement is reviewed in this slide presentation. Many Earth Science disciplines have been able to access the data that is held in the Earth Observing System (EOS) Data and Information System (EOSDIS) at the Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs) that forms the core of the data system.

  1. Teaching Mathematical Modelling for Earth Sciences via Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xin-She

    2010-05-01

    Mathematical modelling is becoming crucially important for earth sciences because the modelling of complex systems such as geological, geophysical and environmental processes requires mathematical analysis, numerical methods and computer programming. However, a substantial fraction of earth science undergraduates and graduates may not have sufficient skills in mathematical modelling, which is due to either limited mathematical training or lack of appropriate mathematical textbooks for self-study. In this paper, we described a detailed case-study-based approach for teaching mathematical modelling. We illustrate how essential mathematical skills can be developed for students with limited training in secondary mathematics so that they are confident in dealing with real-world mathematical modelling at university level. We have chosen various topics such as Airy isostasy, greenhouse effect, sedimentation and Stokes' flow,free-air and Bouguer gravity, Brownian motion, rain-drop dynamics, impact cratering, heat conduction and cooling of the lithosphere as case studies; and we use these step-by-step case studies to teach exponentials, logarithms, spherical geometry, basic calculus, complex numbers, Fourier transforms, ordinary differential equations, vectors and matrix algebra, partial differential equations, geostatistics and basic numeric methods. Implications for teaching university mathematics for earth scientists for tomorrow's classroom will also be discussed. Refereces 1) D. L. Turcotte and G. Schubert, Geodynamics, 2nd Edition, Cambridge University Press, (2002). 2) X. S. Yang, Introductory Mathematics for Earth Scientists, Dunedin Academic Press, (2009).

  2. Soil carbon management in large-scale Earth system modelling: implications for crop yields and nitrogen leaching

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Olin

    2015-11-01

    levels, assessment of how these different services will vary in space and time, especially in response to cropland management, are scarce. We explore cropland management alternatives and the effect these can have on future C and N pools and fluxes using the land-use-enabled dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (Lund–Potsdam–Jena General Ecosystem Simulator. Simulated crop production, cropland carbon storage, carbon sequestration and nitrogen leaching from croplands are evaluated and discussed. Compared to the version of LPJ-GUESS that does not include land-use dynamics, estimates of soil carbon stocks and nitrogen leaching from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems were improved. Our model experiments allow us to investigate trade-offs between these ecosystem services that can be provided from agricultural fields. These trade-offs are evaluated for current land use and climate and further explored for future conditions within the two future climate change scenarios, RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 and 8.5. Our results show that the potential for carbon sequestration due to typical cropland management practices such as no-till management and cover crops proposed in previous studies is not realised, globally or over larger climatic regions. Our results highlight important considerations to be made when modelling C–N interactions in agricultural ecosystems under future environmental change and the effects these have on terrestrial biogeochemical cycles.

  3. Toward a Deterministic Model of Planetary Formation VI: Dynamical Interaction and Coagulation of Multiple Rocky Embryos and Super-Earth Systems around Solar Type Stars

    OpenAIRE

    Ida, S.; Lin, D. N. C.

    2010-01-01

    Radial velocity and transit surveys indicate that solar-type stars bear super-Earths, with mass and period up to ~ 20 M_E and a few months, are more common than those with Jupiter-mass gas giants. In many cases, these super-Earths are members of multiple-planet systems in which their mutual dynamical interaction has influenced their formation and evolution. In this paper, we modify an existing numerical population synthesis scheme to take into account protoplanetary embryos' interaction with ...

  4. Precipitation from Space: Advancing Earth System Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucera, Paul A.; Ebert, Elizabeth E.; Turk, F. Joseph; Levizzani, Vicenzo; Kirschbaum, Dalia; Tapiador, Francisco J.; Loew, Alexander; Borsche, M.

    2012-01-01

    Of the three primary sources of spatially contiguous precipitation observations (surface networks, ground-based radar, and satellite-based radar/radiometers), only the last is a viable source over ocean and much of the Earth's land. As recently as 15 years ago, users needing quantitative detail of precipitation on anything under a monthly time scale relied upon products derived from geostationary satellite thermal infrared (IR) indices. The Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) passive microwave (PMW) imagers originated in 1987 and continue today with the SSMI sounder (SSMIS) sensor. The fortunate longevity of the joint National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is providing the environmental science community a nearly unbroken data record (as of April 2012, over 14 years) of tropical and sub-tropical precipitation processes. TRMM was originally conceived in the mid-1980s as a climate mission with relatively modest goals, including monthly averaged precipitation. TRMM data were quickly exploited for model data assimilation and, beginning in 1999 with the availability of near real time data, for tropical cyclone warnings. To overcome the intermittently spaced revisit from these and other low Earth-orbiting satellites, many methods to merge PMW-based precipitation data and geostationary satellite observations have been developed, such as the TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Product and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) morphing method (CMORPH. The purpose of this article is not to provide a survey or assessment of these and other satellite-based precipitation datasets, which are well summarized in several recent articles. Rather, the intent is to demonstrate how the availability and continuity of satellite-based precipitation data records is transforming the ways that scientific and societal issues related to precipitation are addressed, in ways that would not be

  5. Describing Earth system simulations with the Metafor CIM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. N. Lawrence

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The Metafor project has developed a common information model (CIM using the ISO19100 series formalism to describe numerical experiments carried out by the Earth system modelling community, the models they use, and the simulations that result. Here we describe the mechanism by which the CIM was developed, and its key properties. We introduce the conceptual and application versions and the controlled vocabularies developed in the context of supporting the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5. We describe how the CIM has been used in experiments to describe model coupling properties and describe the near term expected evolution of the CIM.

  6. Sensor Webs as Virtual Data Systems for Earth Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moe, K. L.; Sherwood, R.

    2008-05-01

    The NASA Earth Science Technology Office established a 3-year Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) development program in late 2006 to explore the technical challenges associated with integrating sensors, sensor networks, data assimilation and modeling components into virtual data systems called "sensor webs". The AIST sensor web program was initiated in response to a renewed emphasis on the sensor web concepts. In 2004, NASA proposed an Earth science vision for a more robust Earth observing system, coupled with remote sensing data analysis tools and advances in Earth system models. The AIST program is conducting the research and developing components to explore the technology infrastructure that will enable the visionary goals. A working statement for a NASA Earth science sensor web vision is the following: On-demand sensing of a broad array of environmental and ecological phenomena across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, from a heterogeneous suite of sensors both in-situ and in orbit. Sensor webs will be dynamically organized to collect data, extract information from it, accept input from other sensor / forecast / tasking systems, interact with the environment based on what they detect or are tasked to perform, and communicate observations and results in real time. The focus on sensor webs is to develop the technology and prototypes to demonstrate the evolving sensor web capabilities. There are 35 AIST projects ranging from 1 to 3 years in duration addressing various aspects of sensor webs involving space sensors such as Earth Observing-1, in situ sensor networks such as the southern California earthquake network, and various modeling and forecasting systems. Some of these projects build on proof-of-concept demonstrations of sensor web capabilities like the EO-1 rapid fire response initially implemented in 2003. Other projects simulate future sensor web configurations to evaluate the effectiveness of sensor-model interactions for producing

  7. Climateurope: a network to support Europe's research and innovation activities in the fields of Earth-System modeling and climate services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bessembinder, Janette; Kotova, Lola; Manez, Maria; Jacob, Daniela; Hewitt, Chris; Garrett, Natalie; Monfray, Patrick; Doescher, Ralf; Doblas Reyes, Francisco; Joussaume, Sylvie; Toumi, Ralf; Buonocore, Mauro; Gualdi, Silvio; Nickovic, Slobodan

    2017-04-01

    Changes in the climate are affecting many sectors but the audience of decision- and policy-makers is so wide and varied that the requirements from each application can be quite different. There are a growing number of initiatives at the international and European level, from research networks of data providers, operational services, impact assessments, to coordination of government initiatives and provision of policy relevant recommendations; all provided on a wide range of timescales. The landscape of activities is very diverse. Users and providers of climate information currently face significant challenges in understanding this complex landscape. If we are to maximize the benefits of the investments and provide European citizens with the information and technology to develop a climate-smart society, then a mechanism is needed to coordinate the impressive and varied research and innovation effort. The overall concept behind the EU-project Climateurope is to create and manage a framework to coordinate, integrate and support Europe's research and innovation activities in the fields of Earth-System modeling and climate services. The purpose of this concept is to create greater social and economic value for Europe through improved preparation for, and management of, climate-related risks and opportunities arising from making European world-class knowledge more useable and thus more applicable to policy- and decision-making. This value will be felt by a range of actors including the public sector, governments, business and industry. Climateurope will provide a comprehensive overview of all the relevant activities to ensure the society at large can take full advantage of the investment Europe is making in research and innovation and associated development of services. The Climateurope network will facilitate dialog among climate science communities, funding bodies, climate service providers and users. Through the communication and dissemination activities, Climateurope

  8. Earth

    CERN Document Server

    Carter, Jason

    2017-01-01

    This curriculum-based, easy-to-follow book teaches young readers about Earth as one of the eight planets in our solar system in astronomical terms. With accessible text, it provides the fundamental information any student needs to begin their studies in astronomy, such as how Earth spins and revolves around the Sun, why it's uniquely suitable for life, its physical features, atmosphere, biosphere, moon, its past, future, and more. To enhance the learning experience, many of the images come directly from NASA. This straightforward title offers the fundamental information any student needs to sp

  9. UNH Data Cooperative: A Cyber Infrastructure for Earth System Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braswell, B. H.; Fekete, B. M.; Prusevich, A.; Gliden, S.; Magill, A.; Vorosmarty, C. J.

    2007-12-01

    Earth system scientists and managers have a continuously growing demand for a wide array of earth observations derived from various data sources including (a) modern satellite retrievals, (b) "in-situ" records, (c) various simulation outputs, and (d) assimilated data products combining model results with observational records. The sheer quantity of data, and formatting inconsistencies make it difficult for users to take full advantage of this important information resource. Thus the system could benefit from a thorough retooling of our current data processing procedures and infrastructure. Emerging technologies, like OPeNDAP and OGC map services, open standard data formats (NetCDF, HDF) data cataloging systems (NASA-Echo, Global Change Master Directory, etc.) are providing the basis for a new approach in data management and processing, where web- services are increasingly designed to serve computer-to-computer communications without human interactions and complex analysis can be carried out over distributed computer resources interconnected via cyber infrastructure. The UNH Earth System Data Collaborative is designed to utilize the aforementioned emerging web technologies to offer new means of access to earth system data. While the UNH Data Collaborative serves a wide array of data ranging from weather station data (Climate Portal) to ocean buoy records and ship tracks (Portsmouth Harbor Initiative) to land cover characteristics, etc. the underlaying data architecture shares common components for data mining and data dissemination via web-services. Perhaps the most unique element of the UNH Data Cooperative's IT infrastructure is its prototype modeling environment for regional ecosystem surveillance over the Northeast corridor, which allows the integration of complex earth system model components with the Cooperative's data services. While the complexity of the IT infrastructure to perform complex computations is continuously increasing, scientists are often forced

  10. Sustainability Indicators for Coupled Human-Earth Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motesharrei, S.; Rivas, J. R.; Kalnay, E.

    2014-12-01

    Over the last two centuries, the Human System went from having a small impact on the Earth System (including the Climate System) to becoming dominant, because both population and per capita consumption have grown extremely fast, especially since about 1950. We therefore argue that Human System Models must be included into Earth System Models through bidirectional couplings with feedbacks. In particular, population should be modeled endogenously, rather than exogenously as done currently in most Integrated Assessment Models. The growth of the Human System threatens to overwhelm the Carrying Capacity of the Earth System, and may be leading to catastrophic climate change and collapse. We propose a set of Ecological and Economic "Sustainability Indicators" that can employ large data-sets for developing and assessing effective mitigation and adaptation policies. Using the Human and Nature Dynamical Model (HANDY) and Coupled Human-Climate-Water Model (COWA), we carry out experiments with this set of Sustainability Indicators and show that they are applicable to various coupled systems including Population, Climate, Water, Energy, Agriculture, and Economy. Impact of nonrenewable resources and fossil fuels could also be understood using these indicators. We demonstrate interconnections of Ecological and Economic Indicators. Coupled systems often include feedbacks and can thus display counterintuitive dynamics. This makes it difficult for even experts to see coming catastrophes from just the raw data for different variables. Sustainability Indicators boil down the raw data into a set of simple numbers that cross their sustainability thresholds with a large time-lag before variables enter their catastrophic regimes. Therefore, we argue that Sustainability Indicators constitute a powerful but simple set of tools that could be directly used for making policies for sustainability.

  11. Response of the middle atmosphere to anthropogenic and natural forcings in the CMIP5 simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth system model

    KAUST Repository

    Schmidt, H.; Rast, S.; Bunzel, F.; Esch, M.; Giorgetta, M.; Kinne, S.; Krismer, T.; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Timmreck, C.; Tomassini, L.; Walz, M.

    2013-01-01

    The ECHAM6 atmospheric general circulation model is the atmosphere component of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) that is used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations. As ECHAM6 has its uppermost layer centered at 0.01 hPa in the upper mesosphere, these simulations offer the opportunity to study the middle atmosphere climate change and its relation to the troposphere on the basis of a very comprehensive set of state-of-the-art model simulations. The goals of this paper are (a) to introduce those new features of ECHAM6 particularly relevant for the middle atmosphere, including external forcing data, and (b) to evaluate the simulated middle atmosphere and describe the simulated response to natural and anthropogenic forcings. New features in ECHAM6 with respect to ECHAM5 include a new short-wave radiation scheme, the option to vary spectral irradiance independent of total solar irradiance, and a latitude-dependent gravity-wave source strength. The description of external forcing data focuses on solar irradiance and ozone. Stratospheric temperature trends simulated with the MPI-ESM for the last decades of the 20th century agree well with observations. The future projections depend strongly on the scenario. Under the high emission scenario RCP8.5, simulated temperatures are locally lower by more than 20 K than preindustrial values. Many of the simulated patterns of the responses to natural forcings as provided by solar variability, volcanic aerosols, and El Nino-Southern Oscillation, largely agree with the observations. 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

  12. The Effects of Dynamic Root Distribution on Land–Atmosphere Carbon and Water Fluxes in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2.0

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanyuan Wang

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Roots are responsible for the uptake of water and nutrients by plants, and they have the plasticity to respond dynamically to different environmental conditions. However, currently, most climate models only prescribe rooting profiles as a function of the vegetation type of the land component, with no consideration of the surroundings. In this study, a dynamic rooting scheme describing root growth as a compromise between water and nitrogen availability in the subsurface was incorporated into the Community Earth System Model 1.2.0 (CESM1.2.0. The dynamic rooting scheme was incorporated to investigate the effects of land–atmosphere carbon and water fluxes, and their subsequent influences on climate. The modeling results of global land–atmosphere coupling simulations from 1982 to 2005 show that the dynamic rooting scheme can improve gross primary production (GPP and evapotranspiration (ET in most tropical regions, and in some high-latitude regions with lower mean biases (MBEs and root mean square errors (RMSEs. Obvious differences in 2-m air temperature were found in low-latitude areas, with decreases of up to 2 °C. Under the influence of local land-surface feedback and large-scale moisture advection, total precipitation in the northeastern area of the Amazon and the west coast of Africa increased by 200 mm year−1, and that of South America, central Africa, and Indonesia increased by 50 to 100 mm year−1. Overall, the model incorporating the dynamic rooting scheme may reveal cooling and humidifying effects, especially for tropical regions.

  13. Response of the middle atmosphere to anthropogenic and natural forcings in the CMIP5 simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth system model

    KAUST Repository

    Schmidt, H.

    2013-03-06

    The ECHAM6 atmospheric general circulation model is the atmosphere component of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) that is used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations. As ECHAM6 has its uppermost layer centered at 0.01 hPa in the upper mesosphere, these simulations offer the opportunity to study the middle atmosphere climate change and its relation to the troposphere on the basis of a very comprehensive set of state-of-the-art model simulations. The goals of this paper are (a) to introduce those new features of ECHAM6 particularly relevant for the middle atmosphere, including external forcing data, and (b) to evaluate the simulated middle atmosphere and describe the simulated response to natural and anthropogenic forcings. New features in ECHAM6 with respect to ECHAM5 include a new short-wave radiation scheme, the option to vary spectral irradiance independent of total solar irradiance, and a latitude-dependent gravity-wave source strength. The description of external forcing data focuses on solar irradiance and ozone. Stratospheric temperature trends simulated with the MPI-ESM for the last decades of the 20th century agree well with observations. The future projections depend strongly on the scenario. Under the high emission scenario RCP8.5, simulated temperatures are locally lower by more than 20 K than preindustrial values. Many of the simulated patterns of the responses to natural forcings as provided by solar variability, volcanic aerosols, and El Nino-Southern Oscillation, largely agree with the observations. 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

  14. ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNOLOGY VERIFICATION REPORT - PHYSICAL REMOVAL OF MICROBIOLOGICAL AND PARTICULATE CONTAMINANTS IN DRINKING WATER : SEPARMATIC™ FLUID SYSTEMS DIATOMACEOUS EARTH PRESSURE TYPE FILTER SYSTEM MODEL 12P-2

    Science.gov (United States)

    The verification test of the SeparmaticTM DE Pressure Type Filter System Model 12P-2 was conducted at the UNH Water Treatment Technology Assistance Center (WTTAC) in Durham, New Hampshire. The source water was finished water from the Arthur Rollins Treatment Plant that was pretr...

  15. Considering bioactivity in modelling continental growth and the Earth's evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höning, D.; Spohn, T.

    2013-09-01

    The complexity of planetary evolution increases with the number of interacting reservoirs. On Earth, even the biosphere is speculated to interact with the interior. It has been argued (e.g., Rosing et al. 2006; Sleep et al, 2012) that the formation of continents could be a consequence of bioactivity harvesting solar energy through photosynthesis to help build the continents and that the mantle should carry a chemical biosignature. Through plate tectonics, the surface biosphere can impact deep subduction zone processes and the interior of the Earth. Subducted sediments are particularly important, because they influence the Earth's interior in several ways, and in turn are strongly influenced by the Earth's biosphere. In our model, we use the assumption that a thick sedimentary layer of low permeability on top of the subducting oceanic crust, caused by a biologically enhanced weathering rate, can suppress shallow dewatering. This in turn leads to greater vailability of water in the source region of andesitic partial melt, resulting in an enhanced rate of continental production and regassing rate into the mantle. Our model includes (i) mantle convection, (ii) continental erosion and production, and (iii) mantle water degassing at mid-ocean ridges and regassing at subduction zones. The mantle viscosity of our model depends on (i) the mantle water concentration and (ii) the mantle temperature, whose time dependency is given by radioactive decay of isotopes in the Earth's mantle. Boundary layer theory yields the speed of convection and the water outgassing rate of the Earth's mantle. Our results indicate that present day values of continental surface area and water content of the Earth's mantle represent an attractor in a phase plane spanned by both parameters. We show that the biologic enhancement of the continental erosion rate is important for the system to reach this fixed point. An abiotic Earth tends to reach an alternative stable fixed point with a smaller

  16. Towards disruptions in Earth observation? New Earth Observation systems and markets evolution: Possible scenarios and impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denis, Gil; Claverie, Alain; Pasco, Xavier; Darnis, Jean-Pierre; de Maupeou, Benoît; Lafaye, Murielle; Morel, Eric

    2017-08-01

    This paper reviews the trends in Earth observation (EO) and the possible impacts on markets of the new initiatives, launched either by existing providers of EO data or by new players, privately funded. After a presentation of the existing models, the paper discusses the new approaches, addressing both commercial and institutional markets. New concepts for the very high resolution markets, in Europe and in the US, are the main focus of this analysis. Two complementary perspectives are summarised: on the one hand, the type of system and its operational performance and, on the other, the related business models, concepts of operation and ownership schemes.

  17. Winter NH low-frequency variability in a hierarchy of low-order stochastic dynamical models of earth-atmosphere system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Nan

    2018-02-01

    The origin of winter Northern Hemispheric low-frequency variability (hereafter, LFV) is regarded to be related to the coupled earth-atmosphere system characterized by the interaction of the jet stream with mid-latitude mountain ranges. On the other hand, observed LFV usually appears as transitions among multiple planetary-scale flow regimes of Northern Hemisphere like NAO + , AO +, AO - and NAO - . Moreover, the interaction between synoptic-scale eddies and the planetary-scale disturbance is also inevitable in the origin of LFV. These raise a question regarding how to incorporate all these aspects into just one framework to demonstrate (1) a planetary-scale dynamics of interaction of the jet stream with mid-latitude mountain ranges can really produce LFV, (2) such a dynamics can be responsible for the existence of above multiple flow regimes, and (3) the role of interaction with eddy is also clarified. For this purpose, a hierarchy of low-order stochastic dynamical models of the coupled earth-atmosphere system derived empirically from different timescale ranges of indices of Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific/North American (PNA), and length of day (LOD) and related probability density function (PDF) analysis are employed in this study. The results seem to suggest that the origin of LFV cannot be understood completely within the planetary-scale dynamics of the interaction of the jet stream with mid-latitude mountain ranges, because (1) the existence of multiple flow regimes such as NAO+, AO+, AO- and NAO- resulted from processes with timescales much longer than LFV itself, which may have underlying dynamics other than topography-jet stream interaction, and (2) we find LFV seems not necessarily to come directly from the planetary-scale dynamics of the interaction of the jet stream with mid-latitude mountain, although it can produce similar oscillatory behavior. The feedback/forcing of synoptic-scale eddies on the planetary

  18. Community Earth System Model Simulations Reveal the Relative Importance of Afforestation and Forest Management to Surface Temperature in Eastern North America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin J. Ahlswede

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Afforestation changes the land surface energy balance, though the effects on climate in temperate regions is uncertain, particularly the changes associated with forest management. In this study, we used idealized Community Earth System Model simulations to assess the influence of afforestation and afforestation management in eastern North America on climate via changes in the biophysics of the land surface. Afforestation using broadleaf deciduous trees maintained at high leaf area index (LAI in the southern part of the study region provided the greatest climate benefit by cooling summer surface air temperatures (Tsa. In contrast, the greatest warming occurred in the northern extent of the study region when afforesting with needleleaf evergreen trees maintained at high LAI. Forest management had an equal or greater influence on Tsa than the overall decision to afforest land in the southern extent of the region. Afforestation had a greater influence on Tsa than forest management in the northern extent. Integrating our results, focused on biophysical processes, with other research quantifying carbon cycle sensitivity to management can help guide the use of temperate afforestation to optimize climate benefits. Further, our results highlight the potential importance of including forest management in simulations of past and future climate.

  19. The role of large—scale BECCS in the pursuit of the 1.5°C target: an Earth system model perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muri, Helene

    2018-04-01

    The increasing awareness of the many damaging aspects of climate change has prompted research into ways of reducing and reversing the anthropogenic increase in carbon concentrations in the atmosphere. Most emission scenarios stabilizing climate at low levels, such as the 1.5 °C target as outlined by the Paris Agreement, require large-scale deployment of Bio-Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS). Here, the potential of large-scale BECCS deployment in contributing towards the 1.5 °C global warming target is evaluated using an Earth system model, as well as associated climate responses and carbon cycle feedbacks. The geographical location of the bioenergy feedstock is shown to be key to the success of such measures in the context of temperature targets. Although net negative emissions were reached sooner, by ∼6 years, and scaled up, land use change emissions and reductions in forest carbon sinks outweigh these effects in one scenario. Re-cultivating mid-latitudes was found to be beneficial, on the other hand, contributing in the right direction towards the 1.5 °C target, only by ‑0.1 °C and ‑54 Gt C in avoided emissions, however. Obstacles remain related to competition for land from nature preservation and food security, as well as the technological availability of CCS.

  20. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The Journal of Earth System Science was earlier a part of the Proceedings of the Indian Academy of Sciences – Section A begun in 1934, and later split in 1978 into theme journals. This journal was published as Proceedings – Earth and Planetary Sciences since 1978, and in 2005 was renamed 'Journal of Earth System ...

  1. A new parameterization for surface ocean light attenuation in Earth System Models: assessing the impact of light absorption by colored detrital material

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, G. E.; Pradal, M.-A.; Gnanadesikan, A.

    2015-03-01

    Light limitation can affect the distribution of biota and nutrients in the ocean. Light absorption by colored detrital material (CDM) was included in a fully coupled Earth System Model using a new parameterization for shortwave attenuation. Two model runs were conducted, with and without light attenuation by CDM. In a global average sense, greater light limitation associated with CDM increased surface chlorophyll, biomass and nutrients together. These changes can be attributed to the movement of biological productivity higher up the water column, which increased surface chlorophyll and biomass while simultaneously decreasing total biomass. Meanwhile, the reduction in biomass resulted in greater nutrient availability throughout the water column. Similar results were found on a regional scale in an analysis of the oceans by biome. In coastal regions, surface chlorophyll increased by 35% while total integrated phytoplankton biomass diminished by 18%. The largest relative increases in modeled surface chlorophyll and biomass in the open ocean were found in the equatorial biomes, while largest decreases in depth-integrated biomass and chlorophyll were found in the subpolar and polar biomes. This mismatch of surface and subsurface trends and their regional dependence was analyzed by comparing the competing factors of diminished light availability and increased nutrient availability on phytoplankton growth in the upper 200 m. Overall, increases in surface biomass were expected to accompany greater nutrient uptake and therefore diminish surface nutrients, but changes in light limitation decoupled trends between these two variables. Understanding changes in biological productivity requires both surface and depth-resolved information. Surface trends may be minimal or of the opposite sign to depth-integrated amounts, depending on the vertical structure of phytoplankton abundance.

  2. Predicting vegetation type through physiological and environmental interactions with leaf traits: evergreen and deciduous forests in an earth system modeling framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Ensheng; Farrior, Caroline E; Dybzinski, Ray; Pacala, Stephen W

    2017-06-01

    Earth system models are incorporating plant trait diversity into their land components to better predict vegetation dynamics in a changing climate. However, extant plant trait distributions will not allow extrapolations to novel community assemblages in future climates, which will require a mechanistic understanding of the trade-offs that determine trait diversity. In this study, we show how physiological trade-offs involving leaf mass per unit area (LMA), leaf lifespan, leaf nitrogen, and leaf respiration may explain the distribution patterns of evergreen and deciduous trees in the temperate and boreal zones based on (1) an evolutionary analysis of a simple mathematical model and (2) simulation experiments of an individual-based dynamic vegetation model (i.e., LM3-PPA). The evolutionary analysis shows that these leaf traits set up a trade-off between carbon- and nitrogen-use efficiency at the scale of individual trees and therefore determine competitively dominant leaf strategies. As soil nitrogen availability increases, the dominant leaf strategy switches from one that is high in nitrogen-use efficiency to one that is high in carbon-use efficiency or, equivalently, from high-LMA/long-lived leaves (i.e., evergreen) to low-LMA/short-lived leaves (i.e., deciduous). In a region of intermediate soil nitrogen availability, the dominant leaf strategy may be either deciduous or evergreen depending on the initial conditions of plant trait abundance (i.e., founder controlled) due to feedbacks of leaf traits on soil nitrogen mineralization through litter quality. Simulated successional patterns by LM3-PPA from the leaf physiological trade-offs are consistent with observed successional dynamics of evergreen and deciduous forests at three sites spanning the temperate to boreal zones. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Magnetoelastic interaction in rare earth systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dohm, V.

    1975-01-01

    A theory of rotationally invariant spin-lattice interactions in rare earth systems is presented. It is shown that rotational invariance to leading order is ensured only if rotational interactions of first and second order in the displacements are included simultaneously in the spin-lattice Hamiltonian. The rotational second-order interactions yield effects which are as large as those of the linear rotational interaction. It is pointed out that a corresponding statement should hold also for pure strain interactions. The phonon Green's function is calculated for the paramagnetic phase of rare earth systems. It is found that in an applied magnetic field the rotational interactions cause measureable changes of the phonon dispersion and the sound velocity even for cubic symmetry. These effects turn out to be of the same order of magnitude as the conventional field-dependent strain effects and are qualitatively different from the latter. The results of our theory are illustrated by the example of SmSb, and quantitative predictions for the transverse sound velocities are given. (orig.) [de

  4. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 124; Issue 7 ... to good protective capacity rating as can be seen from the high longitudinal conductance ... School of Environment and Earth Sciences, North Maharashtra University, ...

  5. Advances in Sun-Earth Connection Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ganguli, S.B.; Gavrishchaka, V.V.

    2003-01-01

    Space weather forecasting is a focus of a multidisciplinary research effort motivated by a sensitive dependence of many modern technologies on geospace conditions. Adequate understanding of the physics of the Sun-Earth connection and associated multi-scale magnetospheric and ionospheric processes is an essential part of this effort. Modern physical simulation models such as multimoment multifluid models with effective coupling from small-scale kinetic processes can provide valuable insight into the role of various physical mechanisms operating during geomagnetic storm/substorm activity. However, due to necessary simplifying assumptions, physical models are still not well suited for accurate real-time forecasting. Complimentary approach includes data-driven models capable of efficient processing of multi-scale spatio-temporal data. However, the majority of advanced nonlinear algorithms, including neural networks (NN), can encounter a set of problems called dimensionality curse when applied to high-dimensional data. Forecasting of rare/extreme events such as large geomagnetic storms/substorms is of the most practical importance but is also very challenging for many existing models. A very promising algorithm that combines the power of the best nonlinear techniques and tolerance to high-dimensional and incomplete data is support vector machine (SVM). We have summarized advantages of the SVM and described a hybrid model based on SVM and extreme value theory (EVT) for rare event forecasting. Results of the SVM application to substorm forecasting and future directions are discussed

  6. Characterizing the Purple Earth: Modeling the globally integrated spectral variability of the Archean Earth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanromá, E.; Pallé, E.; López, R.; Montañés-Rodríguez, P.; Parenteau, M. N.; Kiang, N. Y.; Gutiérrez-Navarro, A. M.

    2014-01-01

    Ongoing searches for exoplanetary systems have revealed a wealth of planets with diverse physical properties. Planets even smaller than the Earth have already been detected and the efforts of future missions are aimed at the discovery, and perhaps characterization, of small rocky exoplanets within the habitable zone of their stars. Clearly, what we know about our planet will be our guideline for the characterization of such planets. However, the Earth has been inhabited for at least 3.8 Gyr and its appearance has changed with time. Here, we have studied the Earth during the Archean eon, 3.0 Gyr ago. At that time, one of the more widespread life forms on the planet was purple bacteria. These bacteria are photosynthetic microorganisms and can inhabit both aquatic and terrestrial environments. Here, we use a radiative transfer model to simulate the visible and near-infrared radiation reflected by our planet, taking into account several scenarios regarding the possible distribution of purple bacteria over continents and oceans. We find that purple bacteria have a reflectance spectrum that has a strong reflectivity increase, similar to the red edge of leafy plants, although shifted redward. This feature produces a detectable signal in the disk-averaged spectra of our planet, depending on cloud amount and purple bacteria concentration/distribution. We conclude that by using multi-color photometric observations, it is possible to distinguish between an Archean Earth in which purple bacteria inhabit vast extensions of the planet and a present-day Earth with continents covered by deserts, vegetation, or microbial mats.

  7. Modelling earth current precursors in earthquake prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Di Maio

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the theory of earth current precursors of earthquake. A dilatancy-diffusion-polarization model is proposed to explain the anomalies of the electric potential, which are observed on the ground surface prior to some earthquakes. The electric polarization is believed to be the electrokinetic effect due to the invasion of fluids into new pores, which are opened inside a stressed-dilated rock body. The time and space variation of the distribution of the electric potential in a layered earth as well as in a faulted half-space is studied in detail. It results that the surface response depends on the underground conductivity distribution and on the relative disposition of the measuring dipole with respect to the buried bipole source. A field procedure based on the use of an areal layout of the recording sites is proposed, in order to obtain the most complete information on the time and space evolution of the precursory phenomena in any given seismic region.

  8. The influence of the ocean circulation state on ocean carbon storage and CO2 drawdown potential in an Earth system model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ödalen, Malin; Nycander, Jonas; Oliver, Kevin I. C.; Brodeau, Laurent; Ridgwell, Andy

    2018-03-01

    During the four most recent glacial cycles, atmospheric CO2 during glacial maxima has been lowered by about 90-100 ppm with respect to interglacials. There is widespread consensus that most of this carbon was partitioned in the ocean. It is, however, still debated which processes were dominant in achieving this increased carbon storage. In this paper, we use an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to explore the sensitivity of ocean carbon storage to ocean circulation state. We carry out a set of simulations in which we run the model to pre-industrial equilibrium, but in which we achieve different states of ocean circulation by changing forcing parameters such as wind stress, ocean diffusivity and atmospheric heat diffusivity. As a consequence, the ensemble members also have different ocean carbon reservoirs, global ocean average temperatures, biological pump efficiencies and conditions for air-sea CO2 disequilibrium. We analyse changes in total ocean carbon storage and separate it into contributions by the solubility pump, the biological pump and the CO2 disequilibrium component. We also relate these contributions to differences in the strength of the ocean overturning circulation. Depending on which ocean forcing parameter is tuned, the origin of the change in carbon storage is different. When wind stress or ocean diapycnal diffusivity is changed, the response of the biological pump gives the most important effect on ocean carbon storage, whereas when atmospheric heat diffusivity or ocean isopycnal diffusivity is changed, the solubility pump and the disequilibrium component are also important and sometimes dominant. Despite this complexity, we obtain a negative linear relationship between total ocean carbon and the combined strength of the northern and southern overturning cells. This relationship is robust to different reservoirs dominating the response to different forcing mechanisms. Finally, we conduct a drawdown experiment in which we investigate

  9. The influence of the ocean circulation state on ocean carbon storage and CO2 drawdown potential in an Earth system model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ödalen

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available During the four most recent glacial cycles, atmospheric CO2 during glacial maxima has been lowered by about 90–100 ppm with respect to interglacials. There is widespread consensus that most of this carbon was partitioned in the ocean. It is, however, still debated which processes were dominant in achieving this increased carbon storage. In this paper, we use an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to explore the sensitivity of ocean carbon storage to ocean circulation state. We carry out a set of simulations in which we run the model to pre-industrial equilibrium, but in which we achieve different states of ocean circulation by changing forcing parameters such as wind stress, ocean diffusivity and atmospheric heat diffusivity. As a consequence, the ensemble members also have different ocean carbon reservoirs, global ocean average temperatures, biological pump efficiencies and conditions for air–sea CO2 disequilibrium. We analyse changes in total ocean carbon storage and separate it into contributions by the solubility pump, the biological pump and the CO2 disequilibrium component. We also relate these contributions to differences in the strength of the ocean overturning circulation. Depending on which ocean forcing parameter is tuned, the origin of the change in carbon storage is different. When wind stress or ocean diapycnal diffusivity is changed, the response of the biological pump gives the most important effect on ocean carbon storage, whereas when atmospheric heat diffusivity or ocean isopycnal diffusivity is changed, the solubility pump and the disequilibrium component are also important and sometimes dominant. Despite this complexity, we obtain a negative linear relationship between total ocean carbon and the combined strength of the northern and southern overturning cells. This relationship is robust to different reservoirs dominating the response to different forcing mechanisms. Finally, we conduct a drawdown experiment

  10. Boreal lakes moderate seasonal and diurnal temperature variation and perturb atmospheric circulation: Analyses in the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Subin, Zachary M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Div.; Murphy, Lisa N. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Div.; Li, Fiyu [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Div.; Bonfils, Celine [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison; Riley, William J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Div.

    2012-01-15

    We used a lake thermal physics model recently coupled into the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1) to study the effects of lake distribution in present and future climate. Under present climate, correcting the large underestimation of lake area in CESM1 (denoted CCSM4 in the configuration used here) caused 1 °C spring decreases and fall increases in surface air temperature throughout large areas of Canada and the US. Simulated summer surface diurnal air temperature range decreased by up to 4 °C, reducing CCSM4 biases. These changes were much larger than those resulting from prescribed lake disappearance in some present-day permafrost regions under doubled-CO2 conditions. Correcting the underestimation of lake area in present climate caused widespread high-latitude summer cooling at 850 hPa. Significant remote changes included decreases in the strength of fall Southern Ocean westerlies. We found significantly different winter responses when separately analysing 45-yr subperiods, indicating that relatively long simulations are required to discern the impacts of surface changes on remote conditions. We also investigated the surface forcing of lakes using idealised aqua-planet experiments which showed that surface changes of 2 °C in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics could cause substantial changes in precipitation and winds in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Shifts in the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone were opposite in sign to those predicted by some previous studies. Zonal mean circulation changes were consistent in character but much larger than those occurring in the lake distribution experiments, due to the larger magnitude and more uniform surface forcing in the idealised aqua-planet experiments.

  11. Boreal lakes moderate seasonal and diurnal temperature variation and perturb atmospheric circulation: analyses in the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William J. Riley

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available We used a lake thermal physics model recently coupled into the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1 to study the effects of lake distribution in present and future climate. Under present climate, correcting the large underestimation of lake area in CESM1 (denoted CCSM4 in the configuration used here caused 1 °C spring decreases and fall increases in surface air temperature throughout large areas of Canada and the US. Simulated summer surface diurnal air temperature range decreased by up to 4 °C, reducing CCSM4 biases. These changes were much larger than those resulting from prescribed lake disappearance in some present-day permafrost regions under doubled-CO2 conditions. Correcting the underestimation of lake area in present climate caused widespread high-latitude summer cooling at 850 hPa. Significant remote changes included decreases in the strength of fall Southern Ocean westerlies. We found significantly different winter responses when separately analysing 45-yr subperiods, indicating that relatively long simulations are required to discern the impacts of surface changes on remote conditions. We also investigated the surface forcing of lakes using idealised aqua-planet experiments which showed that surface changes of 2 °C in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics could cause substantial changes in precipitation and winds in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Shifts in the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone were opposite in sign to those predicted by some previous studies. Zonal mean circulation changes were consistent in character but much larger than those occurring in the lake distribution experiments, due to the larger magnitude and more uniform surface forcing in the idealised aqua-planet experiments.

  12. Mathematical models and methods for planet Earth

    CERN Document Server

    Locatelli, Ugo; Ruggeri, Tommaso; Strickland, Elisabetta

    2014-01-01

    In 2013 several scientific activities have been devoted to mathematical researches for the study of planet Earth. The current volume presents a selection of the highly topical issues presented at the workshop “Mathematical Models and Methods for Planet Earth”, held in Roma (Italy), in May 2013. The fields of interest span from impacts of dangerous asteroids to the safeguard from space debris, from climatic changes to monitoring geological events, from the study of tumor growth to sociological problems. In all these fields the mathematical studies play a relevant role as a tool for the analysis of specific topics and as an ingredient of multidisciplinary problems. To investigate these problems we will see many different mathematical tools at work: just to mention some, stochastic processes, PDE, normal forms, chaos theory.

  13. The international earth observing system: a cultural debate about earth sciences from space

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Menenti, M.

    1996-01-01

    This paper gives an overview of the International Earth Observing System, i.e. the combined earth observation programmes of space agencies worldwide and of the relevance of advanced space-borne sensor systems to the study and understanding of interactions between land surface and atmosphere. The

  14. Large scale and cloud-based multi-model analytics experiments on climate change data in the Earth System Grid Federation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiore, Sandro; Płóciennik, Marcin; Doutriaux, Charles; Blanquer, Ignacio; Barbera, Roberto; Donvito, Giacinto; Williams, Dean N.; Anantharaj, Valentine; Salomoni, Davide D.; Aloisio, Giovanni

    2017-04-01

    In many scientific domains such as climate, data is often n-dimensional and requires tools that support specialized data types and primitives to be properly stored, accessed, analysed and visualized. Moreover, new challenges arise in large-scale scenarios and eco-systems where petabytes (PB) of data can be available and data can be distributed and/or replicated, such as the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) serving the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) experiment, providing access to 2.5PB of data for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). A case study on climate models intercomparison data analysis addressing several classes of multi-model experiments is being implemented in the context of the EU H2020 INDIGO-DataCloud project. Such experiments require the availability of large amount of data (multi-terabyte order) related to the output of several climate models simulations as well as the exploitation of scientific data management tools for large-scale data analytics. More specifically, the talk discusses in detail a use case on precipitation trend analysis in terms of requirements, architectural design solution, and infrastructural implementation. The experiment has been tested and validated on CMIP5 datasets, in the context of a large scale distributed testbed across EU and US involving three ESGF sites (LLNL, ORNL, and CMCC) and one central orchestrator site (PSNC). The general "environment" of the case study relates to: (i) multi-model data analysis inter-comparison challenges; (ii) addressed on CMIP5 data; and (iii) which are made available through the IS-ENES/ESGF infrastructure. The added value of the solution proposed in the INDIGO-DataCloud project are summarized in the following: (i) it implements a different paradigm (from client- to server-side); (ii) it intrinsically reduces data movement; (iii) it makes lightweight the end-user setup; (iv) it fosters re-usability (of data, final

  15. Evolving Metadata in NASA Earth Science Data Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, A.; Cechini, M. F.; Walter, J.

    2011-12-01

    NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) is a coordinated series of satellites for long term global observations. NASA's Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) is a petabyte-scale archive of environmental data that supports global climate change research by providing end-to-end services from EOS instrument data collection to science data processing to full access to EOS and other earth science data. On a daily basis, the EOSDIS ingests, processes, archives and distributes over 3 terabytes of data from NASA's Earth Science missions representing over 3500 data products ranging from various types of science disciplines. EOSDIS is currently comprised of 12 discipline specific data centers that are collocated with centers of science discipline expertise. Metadata is used in all aspects of NASA's Earth Science data lifecycle from the initial measurement gathering to the accessing of data products. Missions use metadata in their science data products when describing information such as the instrument/sensor, operational plan, and geographically region. Acting as the curator of the data products, data centers employ metadata for preservation, access and manipulation of data. EOSDIS provides a centralized metadata repository called the Earth Observing System (EOS) ClearingHouse (ECHO) for data discovery and access via a service-oriented-architecture (SOA) between data centers and science data users. ECHO receives inventory metadata from data centers who generate metadata files that complies with the ECHO Metadata Model. NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS) Project established a Tiger Team to study and make recommendations regarding the adoption of the international metadata standard ISO 19115 in EOSDIS. The result was a technical report recommending an evolution of NASA data systems towards a consistent application of ISO 19115 and related standards including the creation of a NASA-specific convention for core ISO 19115 elements. Part of

  16. Earth Observation System Flight Dynamics System Covariance Realism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaidi, Waqar H.; Tracewell, David

    2016-01-01

    This presentation applies a covariance realism technique to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Observation System (EOS) Aqua and Aura spacecraft based on inferential statistics. The technique consists of three parts: collection calculation of definitive state estimates through orbit determination, calculation of covariance realism test statistics at each covariance propagation point, and proper assessment of those test statistics.

  17. Changes of climate regimes during the last millennium and the twenty-first century simulated by the Community Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Wei; Feng, Song; Liu, Chang; Chen, Jie; Chen, Jianhui; Chen, Fahu

    2018-01-01

    This study examines the shifts in terrestrial climate regimes using the Köppen-Trewartha (K-T) climate classification by analyzing the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) simulations for the period 850-2005 and CESM Medium Ensemble (CESM-ME), CESM Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) and CESM with fixed aerosols Medium Ensemble (CESM-LE_FixA) simulations for the period 1920-2080. We compare K-T climate types from the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) (950-1250) with the Little Ice Age (LIA) (1550-1850), from present day (PD) (1971-2000) with the last millennium (LM) (850-1850), and from the future (2050-2080) with the LM in order to place anthropogenic changes in the context of changes due to natural forcings occurring during the last millennium. For CESM-LME, we focused on the simulations with all forcings, though the impacts of individual forcings (e.g., solar activities, volcanic eruptions, greenhouse gases, aerosols and land use changes) were also analyzed. We found that the climate types changed slightly between the MCA and the LIA due to weak changes in temperature and precipitation. The climate type changes in PD relative to the last millennium have been largely driven by greenhouse gas-induced warming, but anthropogenic aerosols have also played an important role on regional scales. At the end of the twenty-first century, the anthropogenic forcing has a much greater effect on climate types than the PD. Following the reduction of aerosol emissions, the impact of greenhouse gases will further promote global warming in the future. Compared to precipitation, changes in climate types are dominated by greenhouse gas-induced warming. The large shift in climate types by the end of this century suggests possible wide-spread redistribution of surface vegetation and a significant change in species distributions.

  18. Spatial and temporal patterns of plantation forests in the United States since the 1930s: an annual and gridded data set for regional Earth system modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Guangsheng; Pan, Shufen; Hayes, Daniel J.; Tian, Hanqin

    2017-08-01

    Plantation forest area in the conterminous United States (CONUS) ranked second among the world's nations in the land area apportioned to forest plantation. As compared to the naturally regenerated forests, plantation forests demonstrate significant differences in biophysical characteristics, and biogeochemical and hydrological cycles as a result of more intensive management practices. Inventory data have been reported for multiple time periods on plot, state, and regional scales across the CONUS, but the requisite annual and spatially explicit plantation data set over a long-term period for analysis of the role of plantation management on regional or national scales is lacking. Through synthesis of multiple inventory data sources, this study developed methods to spatialize the time series plantation forest and tree species distribution data for the CONUS over the 1928-2012 time period. According to this new data set, plantation forest area increased from near zero in the 1930s to 268.27 thousand km2 in 2012, accounting for 8.65 % of the total forestland area in the CONUS. Regionally, the South contained the highest proportion of plantation forests, accounting for about 19.34 % of total forestland area in 2012. This time series and gridded data set developed here can be readily applied in regional Earth system modeling frameworks for assessing the impacts of plantation management practices on forest productivity, carbon and nitrogen stocks, and greenhouse gases (e.g., CO2, CH4, and N2O) and water fluxes on regional or national scales. The gridded plantation distribution and tree species maps, and the interpolated state-level annual tree planting area and plantation area during 1928-2012, are available from PANGAEA.873558" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.873558.

  19. Earth System Grid and EGI interoperability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raciazek, J.; Petitdidier, M.; Gemuend, A.; Schwichtenberg, H.

    2012-04-01

    The Earth Science data centers have developed a data grid called Earth Science Grid Federation (ESGF) to give the scientific community world wide access to CMIP5 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5) climate data. The CMIP5 data will permit to evaluate the impact of climate change in various environmental and societal areas, such as regional climate, extreme events, agriculture, insurance… The ESGF grid provides services like searching, browsing and downloading of datasets. At the security level, ESGF data access is protected by an authentication mechanism. An ESGF trusted X509 Short-Lived EEC certificate with the correct roles/attributes is required to get access to the data in a non-interactive way (e.g. from a worker node). To access ESGF from EGI (i.e. by earth science applications running on EGI infrastructure), the security incompatibility between the two grids is the challenge: the EGI proxy certificate is not ESGF trusted nor it contains the correct roles/attributes. To solve this problem, we decided to use a Credential Translation Service (CTS) to translate the EGI X509 proxy certificate into the ESGF Short-Lived EEC certificate (the CTS will issue ESGF certificates based on EGI certificate authentication). From the end user perspective, the main steps to use the CTS are: the user binds his two identities (EGI and ESGF) together in the CTS using the CTS web interface (this steps has to be done only once) and then request an ESGF Short-Lived EEC certificate every time is needed, using a command-line tools. The implementation of the CTS is on-going. It is based on the open source MyProxy software stack, which is used in many grid infrastructures. On the client side, the "myproxy-logon" command-line tools is used to request the certificate translation. A new option has been added to "myproxy-logon" to select the original certificate (in our case, the EGI one). On the server side, MyProxy server operates in Certificate Authority mode, with a new module

  20. A weak AMOC in a cold climate: Causes and remedies for a bias in the low-resolution version of the UK Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhlbrodt, T.; Jones, C.

    2016-02-01

    The UK Earth System Model (UKESM) is currently being developed by the UK Met Office and the academic community in the UK. The low-resolution version of UKESM has got a nominal grid cell size of 150 km in the atmosphere (Unified Model [UM], N96) and 1° in the ocean (NEMO, ORCA1). In several preliminary test configurations of UKESM-N96-ORCA1, we find a significant cold bias in the northern hemisphere in comparison with HadGEM2 (N96-ORCA025, i.e. 0.25° resolution in the ocean). The sea surface is too cold by more than 2 K, and up to 6 K, in large parts of the North Atlantic and the northwest Pacific. In addition to the cold bias, the maximum AMOC transport (diagnosed below 500 m depth) decreases in all the configurations, displaying values between 11 and 14 Sv after 50 years run length. Transport at 26°N is even smaller and hence too weak in relation to observed values (approx. 18 Sv). The mixed layer is too deep within the North Atlantic Current and the Kuroshio, but too shallow north of these currents. The cold bias extends to a depth of several hundred metres. In the North Atlantic, it is accompanied by a freshening of up to 1.5 psu, compared to present-day climatology, along the path of the North Atlantic Current. A core problem appears to be the cessation of deep-water formation in the Labrador Sea. Remarkably, using earlier versions of NEMO and the UM, the AMOC is stable at around 16 or 17 Sv in the N96-ORCA1 configuration. We report on various strategies to reduce the cold bias and enhance the AMOC transport. Changing various parameters that affect the vertical mixing in NEMO has no significant effect. Modifying the bathymetry to deepen and widen the channels across the Greenland-Iceland-Scotland sill leads to a short-term improvement in AMOC transport, but only for about ten years. Strikingly, in a configuration with longer time steps for the atmosphere model we find a climate that is even colder, but has got a more vigorous maximum AMOC transport (14 Sv

  1. New dynamic system suggested for earth expansion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fitzpatrick, J [Asuncion Nacional Univ. (Paraguay). Inst. de Ciencias

    1972-01-01

    It is here suggested that there may have been much more radioactive materials in the deep interior of the earth than bitherto supposed. Trapped heat being generated in the interior would provide a mechanism for earth expansion. An assumption of heat generation in the deep interior of the earth of the order of 0,5 X 10-13 calories per second, per cubic centimeter, would provide sufficient thermal expansion to account for approximately 0.1 mm. change in the radius of the earth per year.

  2. Conference on Earth Observation and Information Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Morley, Lawrence

    1977-01-01

    The NATO Science Committee and its subsidiary Programme Panels provide support for Advanced Research Institutes (ARI) in various fields. The idea is to bring together scientists of a chosen field with the hope that they will achieve a consensus on research direc­ tions for the future, and make recommendations for the benefit of a wider scientific community. Attendance is therefore limited to those whose experience and expertise make the conclusions significant and acceptable to the wider community. Participants are selected on the basis of substantial track records in research or in the synthesis of research results to serve mankind. The proposal for a one-week ARIon Earth Observation and In­ formation Systems was initiated by the NATO Special Programme Panel on Systems Science (SPPOSS). In approving the ARI, the senior NATO Science Committee identified the subject as one of universal impor­ tance, requiring a broad perspective on the development of opera­ tional systems based on successful experimental s...

  3. CO2, the greenhouse effect and global warming: from the pioneering work of Arrhenius and Callendar to today's Earth System Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Thomas R; Hawkins, Ed; Jones, Philip D

    2016-09-01

    Climate warming during the course of the twenty-first century is projected to be between 1.0 and 3.7°C depending on future greenhouse gas emissions, based on the ensemble-mean results of state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs). Just how reliable are these projections, given the complexity of the climate system? The early history of climate research provides insight into the understanding and science needed to answer this question. We examine the mathematical quantifications of planetary energy budget developed by Svante Arrhenius (1859-1927) and Guy Stewart Callendar (1898-1964) and construct an empirical approximation of the latter, which we show to be successful at retrospectively predicting global warming over the course of the twentieth century. This approximation is then used to calculate warming in response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases during the twenty-first century, projecting a temperature increase at the lower bound of results generated by an ensemble of ESMs (as presented in the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). This result can be interpreted as follows. The climate system is conceptually complex but has at its heart the physical laws of radiative transfer. This basic, or "core" physics is relatively straightforward to compute mathematically, as exemplified by Callendar's calculations, leading to quantitatively robust projections of baseline warming. The ESMs include not only the physical core but also climate feedbacks that introduce uncertainty into the projections in terms of magnitude, but not sign: positive (amplification of warming). As such, the projections of end-of-century global warming by ESMs are fundamentally trustworthy: quantitatively robust baseline warming based on the well-understood physics of radiative transfer, with extra warming due to climate feedbacks. These projections thus provide a compelling case that global climate will continue to undergo significant warming in response

  4. Change in Water Cycle- Important Issue on Climate Earth System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Pratik

    Change in Water Cycle- Important Issue on Climate Earth System PRATIK KUMAR SINGH1 1BALDEVRAM MIRDHA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY,JAIPUR (RAJASTHAN) ,INDIA Water is everywhere on Earth and is the only known substance that can naturally exist as a gas, liquid, and solid within the relatively small range of air temperatures and pressures found at the Earth's surface.Changes in the hydrological cycle as a consequence of climate and land use drivers are expected to play a central role in governing a vast range of environmental impacts.Earth's climate will undergo changes in response to natural variability, including solar variability, and to increasing concentrations of green house gases and aerosols.Further more, agreement is widespread that these changes may profoundly affect atmospheric water vapor concentrations, clouds and precipitation patterns.As we know that ,a warmer climate, directly leading to increased evaporation, may well accelerate the hydrological cycle, resulting in an increase in the amount of moisture circulating through the atmosphere.The Changing Water Cycle programmer will develop an integrated, quantitative understanding of the changes taking place in the global water cycle, involving all components of the earth system, improving predictions for the next few decades of regional precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, hydrological storage and fluxes.The hydrological cycle involves evaporation, transpiration, condensation, precipitation, and runoff. NASA's Aqua satellite will monitor many aspects of the role of water in the Earth's systems, and will do so at spatial and temporal scales appropriate to foster a more detailed understanding of each of the processes that contribute to the hydrological cycle. These data and the analyses of them will nurture the development and refinement of hydrological process models and a corresponding improvement in regional and global climate models, with a direct anticipated benefit of more accurate weather and

  5. Embracing Open Source for NASA's Earth Science Data Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baynes, Katie; Pilone, Dan; Boller, Ryan; Meyer, David; Murphy, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    The overarching purpose of NASAs Earth Science program is to develop a scientific understanding of Earth as a system. Scientific knowledge is most robust and actionable when resulting from transparent, traceable, and reproducible methods. Reproducibility includes open access to the data as well as the software used to arrive at results. Additionally, software that is custom-developed for NASA should be open to the greatest degree possible, to enable re-use across Federal agencies, reduce overall costs to the government, remove barriers to innovation, and promote consistency through the use of uniform standards. Finally, Open Source Software (OSS) practices facilitate collaboration between agencies and the private sector. To best meet these ends, NASAs Earth Science Division promotes the full and open sharing of not only all data, metadata, products, information, documentation, models, images, and research results but also the source code used to generate, manipulate and analyze them. This talk focuses on the challenges to open sourcing NASA developed software within ESD and the growing pains associated with establishing policies running the gamut of tracking issues, properly documenting build processes, engaging the open source community, maintaining internal compliance, and accepting contributions from external sources. This talk also covers the adoption of existing open source technologies and standards to enhance our custom solutions and our contributions back to the community. Finally, we will be introducing the most recent OSS contributions from NASA Earth Science program and promoting these projects for wider community review and adoption.

  6. Keeping Earth at work: Using thermodynamics to develop a holistic theory of the Earth system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleidon, Axel

    2010-05-01

    The Earth system is unique among terrestrial planets in that it is maintained in a state far from thermodynamic equilibrium. Practically all processes are irreversible in their nature, thereby producing entropy, and these would act to destroy this state of disequilibrium. In order to maintain disequilibrium in steady state, driving forces are required that perform the work to maintain the Earth system in a state far from equilibrium. To characterize the functioning of the Earth system and the interactions among its subsystems we need to consider all terms of the first and second law of thermodynamics. While the global energy balance is well established in climatology, the global entropy and work balances receive little, if any, attention. Here I will present first steps in developing a holistic theory of the Earth system including quantifications of the relevant terms that is based on the first and second laws of thermodynamics. This theory allows us to compare the significance of different processes in driving and maintaining disequilibrium, allows us to explore interactions by investigating the role of power transfer among processes, and specifically illustrate the significance of life in driving planetary disequilibrium. Furthermore, the global work balance demonstrates the significant impact of human activity and it provides an estimate for the availability of renewable sources of free energy within the Earth system. Hence, I conclude that a holistic thermodynamic theory of the Earth system is not just some academic exercise of marginal use, but essential for a profound understanding of the Earth system and its response to change.

  7. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science. C J Johny. Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science. Volume 125 Issue 3 April 2016 pp 521-538. Impact of hybrid GSI analysis using ETR ensembles · V S Prasad C J Johny · More Details Abstract Fulltext PDF. Performance of a hybrid assimilation system ...

  8. A Desktop Virtual Reality Earth Motion System in Astronomy Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chih Hung; Yang, Jie Chi; Shen, Sarah; Jeng, Ming Chang

    2007-01-01

    In this study, a desktop virtual reality earth motion system (DVREMS) is designed and developed to be applied in the classroom. The system is implemented to assist elementary school students to clarify earth motion concepts using virtual reality principles. A study was conducted to observe the influences of the proposed system in learning.…

  9. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences