WorldWideScience

Sample records for early warning system

  1. Macro finance early warning system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guihuan ZHENG; Xun ZHANG; Wei SHANG; Shanying XU

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, a financial early warning informa-tion system is developed based on the multi-dimensional cli-mate approach that is featured with a multi-dimensional in-dex construction and the relevant multi-dimensional analy-sis. Requirement analysis and design issues of building an information system supporting this multi-dimensional cli-mate approach are discussed in detail. And a case using this system to study the macro financial issues is presented to illustrate how the proposed multi-dimensional approach works in the information system we design. This research is an interdisciplinary work of economic theories, macro finan-cial empirical studies, and software engineering. With ad-vanced macro financial early warning theories implemented in a web application, the Macro Financial Early Warning System (FEWS) developed in this research has been proved to be effective in a trial running in the Forecasting research institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

  2. The SuperNova Early Warning System

    OpenAIRE

    Scholberg, K.

    2008-01-01

    A core collapse in the Milky Way will produce an enormous burst of neutrinos in detectors world-wide. Such a burst has the potential to provide an early warning of a supernova's appearance. I will describe the nature of the signal, the sensitivity of current detectors, and SNEWS, the SuperNova Early Warning System, a network designed to alert astronomers as soon as possible after the detected neutrino signal.

  3. Automatic earthquake confirmation for early warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuyuk, H. S.; Colombelli, S.; Zollo, A.; Allen, R. M.; Erdik, M. O.

    2015-07-01

    Earthquake early warning studies are shifting real-time seismology in earthquake science. They provide methods to rapidly assess earthquakes to predict damaging ground shaking. Preventing false alarms from these systems is key. Here we developed a simple, robust algorithm, Authorizing GRound shaking for Earthquake Early warning Systems (AGREEs), to reduce falsely issued alarms. This is a network threshold-based algorithm, which differs from existing approaches based on apparent velocity of P and S waves. AGREEs is designed to function as an external module to support existing earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs) and filters out the false events, by evaluating actual shaking near the epicenter. Our retrospective analyses of the 2009 L'Aquila and 2012 Emilia earthquakes show that AGREEs could help an EEWS by confirming the epicentral intensity. Furthermore, AGREEs is able to effectively identify three false events due to a storm, a teleseismic earthquake, and broken sensors in Irpinia Seismic Network, Italy.

  4. Flood early warning system: sensors and internet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pengel, B.E.; Krzhizhanovskaya, V.V.; Melnikova, N.B.; Shirshov, G.S.; Koelewijn, A.R.; Pyayt, A.L.; Mokhov, I.I.; Chavoshian, A.; Takeuchi, K.

    2013-01-01

    The UrbanFlood early warning system (EWS) is designed to monitor data from very large sensornetworks in flood defences such as embankments, dikes, levees, and dams. The EWS, based on the internet, uses real-time sensor information and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to immediately calculate the probabi

  5. LIVE DEMONSTRATION OF DISTANT EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammitzsch, M.; Lendholt, M.; Wächter, J.

    2009-12-01

    The DEWS (Distant Early Warning System) [1] project, funded under the 6th Framework Programme of the European Union, has the objective to create a new generation of interoperable early warning systems based on an open sensor platform. This platform integrates OGC [2] SWE [3] compliant sensor systems for the rapid detection of earthquakes, for the monitoring of sea level, ocean floor events, and ground displacements. Based on the upstream information flow DEWS focuses on the improvement of downstream capacities of warning centres especially by improving information logistics for effective and targeted warning message aggregation for a multilingual environment. Multiple telecommunication channels will be used for the dissemination of warning messages. Wherever possible, existing standards have been integrated. The Command and Control User Interface (CCUI), a rich client application based on Eclipse RCP (Rich Client Platform) [4] and the open source GIS uDig [5], integrates various OGC services. Using WMS (Web Map Service) [6] and WFS (Web Feature Service) [7] spatial data are utilized to depict the situation picture and to integrate a simulation system via WPS (Web Processing Service) [8] to identify affected areas. Warning messages are compiled and transmitted in the OASIS [9] CAP (Common Alerting Protocol) [10] standard together with addressing information defined via EDXL-DE (Emergency Data Exchange Language - Distribution Element) [11]. Internal interfaces are realized with SOAP [12] web services. Based on results of GITEWS [13] - in particular the GITEWS Tsunami Service Bus [14] - the DEWS approach provides an implementation for tsunami early warning systems. The introductory part of the demonstration briefly explains the DEWS project, the CCUI in conjunction with operators’ workflow, the system architecture, details of information logistics and the virtual scenario of live demonstration. The live demonstration exhibits the CCUI on screen and the service

  6. Flood early warning system: sensors and internet

    OpenAIRE

    Pengel, B.E.; Krzhizhanovskaya, V.V.; Melnikova, N.B.; Shirshov, G.S.; Koelewijn, A.R.; Pyayt, A.L.; Mokhov, I.I.; Chavoshian, A.; Takeuchi,K.

    2013-01-01

    The UrbanFlood early warning system (EWS) is designed to monitor data from very large sensornetworks in flood defences such as embankments, dikes, levees, and dams. The EWS, based on the internet, uses real-time sensor information and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to immediately calculate the probability of dike failure, the ensuing scenarios of dike breaching, predicted flood spreading and escape routes for people from the affected areas. Results are presented on interactive decision support ...

  7. An Early Warning System for Asteroid Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonry, John L.

    2011-01-01

    Earth is bombarded by meteors, occasionally by one large enough to cause a significant explosion and possible loss of life. It is not possible to detect all hazardous asteroids, and the efforts to detect them years before they strike are only advancing slowly. Similarly, ideas for mitigation of the danger from an impact by moving the asteroid are in their infancy. Although the odds of a deadly asteroid strike in the next century are low, the most likely impact is by a relatively small asteroid, and we suggest that the best mitigation strategy in the near term is simply to move people out of the way. With enough warning, a small asteroid impact should not cause loss of life, and even portable property might be preserved. We describe an early warning system that could provide a week’s notice of most sizeable asteroids or comets on track to hit the Earth. This may be all the mitigation needed or desired for small asteroids, and it can be implemented immediately for relatively low cost. This system, dubbed Asteroid Terrestrial-Impact Last Alert System (ATLAS), comprises two observatories separated by about 100 km that simultaneously scan the visible sky twice a night. Software automatically registers a comparison with the unchanging sky and identifies everything that has moved or changed. Communications between the observatories lock down the orbits of anything approaching the Earth, within one night if its arrival is less than a week. The sensitivity of the system permits detection of 140 m asteroids (100 Mton impact energy) three weeks before impact and 50 m asteroids a week before arrival. An ATLAS alarm, augmented by other observations, should result in a determination of impact location and time that is accurate to a few kilometers and a few seconds. In addition to detecting and warning of approaching asteroids, ATLAS will continuously monitor the changing universe around us: most of the variable stars in our Galaxy, many microlensing events from stellar

  8. An Early Warning System for Asteroid Impact

    CERN Document Server

    Tonry, John L

    2010-01-01

    Earth is bombarded by meteors, occasionally by one large enough to cause a significant explosion and possible loss of life. Although the odds of a deadly asteroid strike in the next century are low, the most likely impact is by a relatively small asteroid, and we suggest that the best mitigation strategy in the near term is simply to move people out of the way. We describe an "early warning" system that could provide a week's notice of most sizable asteroids or comets on track to hit the Earth. This system, dubbed "Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System" (ATLAS), comprises two observatories separated by about 100km that simultaneously scan the visible sky twice a night, and can be implemented immediately for relatively low cost. The sensitivity of ATLAS permits detection of 140m asteroids (100 Mton impact energy) three weeks before impact, and 50m asteroids a week before arrival. An ATLAS alarm, augmented by other observations, should result in a determination of impact location and time that is accura...

  9. Landslide risk mitigation by means of early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvello, Michele

    2017-04-01

    Among the many options available to mitigate landslide risk, early warning systems may be used where, in specific circumstances, the risk to life increases above tolerable levels. A coherent framework to classify and analyse landslide early warning systems (LEWS) is herein presented. Once the objectives of an early warning strategy are defined depending on the scale of analysis and the type of landslides to address, the process of designing and managing a LEWS should synergically employ technical and social skills. A classification scheme for the main components of LEWSs is proposed for weather-induced landslides. The scheme is based on a clear distinction among: i) the landslide model, i.e. a functional relationship between weather characteristics and landslide events considering the geotechnical, geomorphological and hydro-geological characterization of the area as well as an adequate monitoring strategy; ii) the warning model, i.e. the landslide model plus procedures to define the warning events and to issue the warnings; iii) the warning system, i.e. the warning model plus warning dissemination procedures, communication and education tools, strategies for community involvement and emergency plans. Each component of a LEWS is related to a number of actors involved with their deployment, operational activities and management. For instance, communication and education, community involvement and emergency plans are all significantly influenced by people's risk perception and by operational aspects system managers need to address in cooperation with scientists.

  10. A Plant Damage State Early Warning System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hsieh, Chih Yao; Chou, Hwai Pwu [National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu (China)

    2014-08-15

    In case of a severe accident, operators need to follow the emergency operating procedures (EOPS) to limit the damage. In order to assist operators to face a lot of Plant Damage States (PDS) suddenly, we try to predict and identify the Plant Damage State (PDS) for early warning and decision making. In this study, Containment Event Tree (CET) is used in this event-oriented approach to help severe accident management. The Taipower Lungmen nuclear power station (LNPS), an advanced boiling water reactor, is chosen for case study. The LNPS full scope engineering simulator is used to generate the testing data for method development.

  11. Development of tsunami early warning systems and future challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Wächter

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Fostered by and embedded in the general development of information and communications technology (ICT, the evolution of tsunami warning systems (TWS shows a significant development from seismic-centred to multi-sensor system architectures using additional sensors (e.g. tide gauges and buoys for the detection of tsunami waves in the ocean.

    Currently, the beginning implementation of regional tsunami warning infrastructures indicates a new phase in the development of TWS. A new generation of TWS should not only be able to realise multi-sensor monitoring for tsunami detection. Moreover, these systems have to be capable to form a collaborative communication infrastructure of distributed tsunami warning systems in order to implement regional, ocean-wide monitoring and warning strategies.

    In the context of the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS and in the EU-funded FP6 project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS, a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination has been newly developed and demonstrated. In particular, standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS have been successfully incorporated.

    In the FP7 project Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC, new developments in ICT (e.g. complex event processing (CEP and event-driven architecture (EDA are used to extend the existing platform to realise a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems.

  12. Air quality early-warning system for cities in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yunzhen; Yang, Wendong; Wang, Jianzhou

    2017-01-01

    Air pollution has become a serious issue in many developing countries, especially in China, and could generate adverse effects on human beings. Air quality early-warning systems play an increasingly significant role in regulatory plans that reduce and control emissions of air pollutants and inform the public in advance when harmful air pollution is foreseen. However, building a robust early-warning system that will improve the ability of early-warning is not only a challenge but also a critical issue for the entire society. Relevant research is still poor in China and cannot always satisfy the growing requirements of regulatory planning, despite the issue's significance. Therefore, in this paper, a hybrid air quality early-warning system was successfully developed, composed of forecasting and evaluation. First, a hybrid forecasting model was proposed as an important part of this system based on the theory of "decomposition and ensemble" and combined with the advanced data processing technique, support vector machine, the latest bio-inspired optimization algorithm and the leave-one-out strategy for deciding weights. Afterwards, to intensify the research, fuzzy evaluation was performed, which also plays an indispensable role in the early-warning system. The forecasting model and fuzzy evaluation approaches are complementary. Case studies using daily air pollution concentrations of six air pollutants from three cities in China (i.e., Taiyuan, Harbin and Chongqing) are used as examples to evaluate the efficiency and effectiveness of the developed air quality early-warning system. Experimental results demonstrate that both the accuracy and the effectiveness of the developed system are greatly superior for air quality early warning. Furthermore, the application of forecasting and evaluation enables the informative and effective quantification of future air quality, offering a significant advantage, and can be employed to develop rapid air quality early-warning systems.

  13. Managing Risks? Early Warning Systems for Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sitati, A. M.; Zommers, Z. A.; Habilov, M.

    2014-12-01

    Early warning systems are a tool with which to minimize risks posed by climate related hazards. Although great strides have been made in developing early warning systems most deal with one hazard, only provide short-term warnings and do not reach the most vulnerable. This presentation will review research results of the United Nations Environment Programme's CLIM-WARN project. The project seeks to identify how governments can better communicate risks by designing multi-hazard early warning systems that deliver actionable warnings across timescales. Household surveys and focus group discussions were conducted in 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso in order to identify relevant climate related hazards, current response strategies and early warning needs. Preliminary results show significant variability in both risks and needs within and between countries. For instance, floods are more frequent in rural western parts of Kenya. Droughts are frequent in the north while populations in urban areas face a range of hazards - floods, droughts, disease outbreaks - that sometimes occur simultaneously. The majority of the rural population, especially women, the disabled and the elderly, do not have access to modern media such as radio, television, or internet. While 55% of rural populace never watches television, 64% of urban respondents watch television on a daily basis. Communities have different concepts of how to design warning systems. It will be a challenge for national governments to create systems that accommodate such diversity yet provide standard quality of service to all. There is a need for flexible and forward-looking early warning systems that deliver broader information about risks. Information disseminated through the system could not only include details of hazards, but also long-term adaptation options, general education, and health information, thus increasingly both capabilities and response options.

  14. Early Warning System Ghana: how to successfully implement a disaster early warning system in a data scarce region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udo, Job; Jungermann, Nicole

    2016-04-01

    Ghana is a country frequently struck by natural disasters like floods and droughts. Timely warning or detection of such disasters will mitigate the negative impact on lives and property. However, local data and monitoring systems necessary to provide such a warning are hardly available. The availability and improvement of internet, mobile phones and satellites has provided new possibilities for disaster warning systems in data scarce regions such as Ghana. Our presentation describes the development of an early warning system (EWS) in Ghana completely based on satellite based open data. The EWS provides a flood or drought hazard warning on sub-catchment level and links the warning to a more detailed flood or drought risk map, to enable the disaster coordinator to send warnings or relieve more efficiently to areas that have the highest risk. This is especially relevant because some areas for which the system is implemented are very remote. The system is developed and tested to be robust and operational especially in remote areas. This means that the necessary information is also available under limited internet conditions and not dependent on local computer facilities. In many rural areas in Ghana communities rely on indigenous knowledge when it comes to flood or drought disaster forecasting. The EWS has a feature that allows indigenous knowledge indicators to be taken into account in the warning and makes easy comparison possible with the satellite based warnings.

  15. GITEWS -- The German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauterjung, J.; Rudloff, A.

    2005-12-01

    The aim of this work is the implementation of an effective Tsunami Early Warning System for the Indian Ocean. It is a component part of an Early Warning System that will also be capable of registering other natural disasters such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. The system integrates terrestrial observation networks of seismology und geodesy with marine measurements techniques and satellite observations. The required R & D work will be realized within the framework of a stage-plan, which will, within a short time span of 1-3 years, be able to provide effective warning on the one hand and, which will also allow for an integration of technological developments, currently undergoing further research. The initiative is coordinated by the Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres (HGF), represented by the GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam (GFZ). In view of the geological situation one has to bear in mind that Indonesia especially, due to the fact that the main islands are located next to and above the Sunda seismogenic zone, could most frequently and most intensively in the future be prone to catastrophic Tsunami events. The envisaged Early Warning System for the Indian Ocean consists of different components as broadband seismometers, GPS, tide gauges, ocean-bottom pressure sensors and GPS-Buoys. On the basis of the data and recordings registered a warning can be generated. This presentation gives insight into the creation of the 26 December 2004 Tsunami, introduces the planned technical realization of the Early Warning System, shows first model scenarios and gives an overview of the planned realization of an Early Warning System in the Indian Ocean. http://www.gfz-potsdam.de

  16. Data Processing Model of Coalmine Gas Early-Warning System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    QIAN Jian-sheng; YIN Hong-sheng; LIU Xiu-rong; HUA Gang; XU Yong-gang

    2007-01-01

    The data processing mode is vital to the performance of an entire coalmine gas early-warning system, especially in real-time performance. Our objective was to present the structural features of coalmine gas data, so that the data could be processed at different priority levels in C language. Two different data processing models, one with priority and the other without priority, were built based on queuing theory. Their theoretical formulas were determined via a M/M/1 model in order to calculate average occupation time of each measuring point in an early-warning program. We validated the model with the gas early-warning system of the Huaibei Coalmine Group Corp. The results indicate that the average occupation time for gas data processing by using the queuing system model with priority is nearly 1/30 of that of the model without priority..

  17. Impact of social preparedness on flood early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girons Lopez, M.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Seibert, J.

    2017-01-01

    Flood early warning systems play a major role in the disaster risk reduction paradigm as cost-effective methods to mitigate flood disaster damage. The connections and feedbacks between the hydrological and social spheres of early warning systems are increasingly being considered as key aspects for successful flood mitigation. The behavior of the public and first responders during flood situations, determined by their preparedness, is heavily influenced by many behavioral traits such as perceived benefits, risk awareness, or even denial. In this study, we use the recency of flood experiences as a proxy for social preparedness to assess its impact on the efficiency of flood early warning systems through a simple stylized model and implemented this model using a simple mathematical description. The main findings, which are based on synthetic data, point to the importance of social preparedness for flood loss mitigation, especially in circumstances where the technical forecasting and warning capabilities are limited. Furthermore, we found that efforts to promote and preserve social preparedness may help to reduce disaster-induced losses by almost one half. The findings provide important insights into the role of social preparedness that may help guide decision-making in the field of flood early warning systems.

  18. Brief communication "Landslide Early Warning System: toolbox and general concepts"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Intrieri

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We define landslide Early Warning Systems and present practical guidelines to assist end-users with limited experience in the design of landslide Early Warning Systems (EWSs.

    In particular, two flow chart-based tools coming from the results of the SafeLand project (7th Framework Program have been created to make them as simple and general as possible and in compliance with a variety of landslide types and settings at single slope scale. We point out that it is not possible to cover all the real landslide early warning situations that might occur, therefore it will be necessary for end-users to adapt the procedure to local peculiarities of the locations where the landslide EWS will be operated.

  19. On-site early-warning system for Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dino Bindi

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In this work, the development of an on-site early warning system for Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan is outlined. Several low cost sensors equipped with MEMS accelerometers are installed in eight buildings distributed within the urban area. The different sensing units communicate each other via wireless links and the seismic data are streamed in real-time to the data center using internet. Since each single sensing unit has computing capabilities, software for data processing can be installed to perform decentralized actions. In particular, each sensing unit can perform event detection task and run software for on-site early warning. If a description for the vulnerability of the building is uploaded in the sensing unit, this piece of information can be exploited to introduce the expected probability of damage in the early-warning protocol customized for a specific structure.

  20. Public Health Measures: Alerts and Early Warning Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marvin, H.J.P.; Kleter, G.A.

    2014-01-01

    This article reviews various reactive and proactive alert and early warning systems that can be used for the identification of emerging risks to food safety, both within the European Union and at the global level. Recent developments include the establishment of a unit dedicated to emerging risks at

  1. Public Health Measures: Alerts and Early Warning Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marvin, H.J.P.; Kleter, G.A.

    2014-01-01

    This article reviews various reactive and proactive alert and early warning systems that can be used for the identification of emerging risks to food safety, both within the European Union and at the global level. Recent developments include the establishment of a unit dedicated to emerging risks at

  2. Evaluation of the Individualized Study Program: Early Warning System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunziker, Celeste M.

    The Early Warning System (EWS) of the Individualized Study Program (ISP) at the University of California, Davis, was evaluated. Disadvantaged students who have not met the university's entrance requirements are tracked by the EWS during their first year in order to identify academic problems and provide advising and support. Findings include: EWS…

  3. The Food Early Warning System Project in Somalia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leblanc, M.

    1992-01-01

    Full Text Available The article describes shortly the objectives of a Food Early Warning System (FEWS project, as well as its organisation. The specifie case of Somalia, where the project had to evolve in increasingly difficult situations, and the solutions used so as to preserve the output, are described.

  4. Implementing an Inpatient Social Early Warning System for Child Maltreatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atabaki, Armita; Heddaeus, Daniela; Metzner, Franka; Schulz, Holger; Siefert, Sonke; Pawils, Silke

    2013-01-01

    Objectives: The current article describes the process evaluation of a social early warning system (SEWS) for the prevention of child maltreatment in the federal state of Hamburg. This prevention initiative targets expectant mothers and their partners including an initial screening of risk factors for child maltreatment, a subsequent structured…

  5. Performance of Early Warning Systems on Landslides in Central America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strauch, W.; Devoli, G.

    2012-04-01

    We performed a reconnaissance about Early Warning Systems (EWS) on Landslides (EWSL) in the countries of Central America. The advance of the EWSL began in the 1990-ies and accelerated dramatically after the regional disaster provoked by Hurricane Mitch in 1998. In the last decade, Early Warning Systems were intensely promoted by national and international development programs aimed on disaster prevention. Early Warning on landslides is more complicated than for other geological phenomena. But, we found information on more than 30 EWSL in the region. In practice, for example in planning, implementation and evaluation of development projects, it is often not clearly defined what exactly is an Early Warning System. Only few of the systems can be classified as true EWSL that means 1) being directly and solely aimed at persons living in the well-defined areas of greatest risk and 2) focusing their work on saving lives before the phenomenon impacts. There is little written information about the work of the EWSL after the initial phase. Even, there are no statistics whether they issued warnings, if the warnings were successful, how many people were evacuated, if there were few false alerts, etc.. Actually, we did not find a single report on a successful landslide warning issued by an EWSL. The lack of information is often due to the fact that communitarian EWSL are considered local structures and do not have a clearly defined position in the governmental hierarchy; there is little oversight and no qualified support and long-term support. The EWSL suffer from severe problems as lack of funding on the long term, low technical level, and insufficient support from central institutions. Often the EWSL are implemented by NGÓs with funding from international agencies, but leave the project alone after the initial phase. In many cases, the hope of the local people to get some protection against the landslide hazard is not really fulfilled. There is one case, where an EWSL with a

  6. A communication model for interlinking national tsunami early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lendholt, M.; Hammitzsch, M.; Esbri Palomares, M. A.

    2012-04-01

    The integration of national Tsunami Early Earning Systems (TEWS) to ocean-wide networks is a main objective of the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanic Commission (IOC) tsunami programme. The intention is to interlink national TEWSs leveraging warning communication during hazards. For this purpose a communication model has been developed enabling an efficient message exchange within a centre-to-centre (C2C) communication in a system-of-systems environment. The model, designed to be robust and simple, is based on existing interoperability standards from the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) and the Organization of the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS). For the exchange of tsunami warning bulletins the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) is used. It supports geospatial referencing by addressing geocoded Points of Interests (POIs), Areas of Interest (AOIs) and Coastal Forecast Zones (CFZs). Moreover it supports hazard classification by standardized criticality parameters and the transmission of attachments, e.g. situation maps. The communication model also supports the exchange of sensor observations and measurements such as sea level data or earthquake parameters. For this purpose markup languages of the Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) suite are used. Both communication products, warning bulletins and sensor observations, are embedded in an envelope providing addressing and routing information using the Emergency Data Exchange Language Distribution Element (EDXL-DE). The communication model has been implemented in a first pilot based on Message Oriented Middleware (MOM). Implementation, test and validation was started in the European research project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) and is continued successively in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC). Stimulated by the concepts and results of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and based on its sensor integration platform

  7. Development of Early Warning Methods for Electric Power Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jóhannsson, Hjörtur

    This thesis concerns the development of methods that can provide, in realtime, an early warning for an emerging blackout in electric power systems. The blackout in E-Denmark and S-Sweden on September 23, 2003 is the main motivation for the method development. The blackout was caused by occurrence...... methods, that could, in such situations, give an early warning for the emerging blackout. After investigation of data and plots taken from the time of the blackout, it was decided to focus the development on assessment of aperiodic small signal stability. In order to assess the system generators aperiodic...... small signal stability, expressions for stability boundaries were algebraically derived in the injection impedance plane. A method for detecting aperiodic small signal stability was established, which was based on one of the derived boundaries. The method carries out an element-wise assessment...

  8. Site correction of earthquake early warning system in Ilan, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiao Chu, Hsu; Liang, Wen Kuo; Jyun Yan, Huang

    2015-04-01

    When large earthquake occurs, earthquake early warning (EEW) provides alerts to urban areas of the forthcoming strong ground shaking. Depending on the specific geometry of the epicenter and the strong motion network used in EEW, the warning time can be a few seconds to tens of seconds. This warning time can be extremely important since even a few seconds can be sufficient for pre-programmed systems to have emergency response. The Central Weather Bureau (CWB) had already used network EEW system to predict intensity map. Due to leveling of intensity was roughly divided into seven grades according to peak acceleration (PGA) in Taiwan, the warning message is not cautious for company, home and school use, the accuracy of predicted PGA were discuss for our result. A practical site correction approach for EEW was constructed in this study. Period parameter (τc) and an amplitude parameter (Pd)from the initial 3 seconds of P waves were calculated after Wu et al.(2005) first for each site of Taiwan Strong-Motion Instrumentation Program (TSMIP) in Ilan, Taiwan for focal depths less than 35 km and magnitude Mw>=5.0. Two pairs of linear relations had showed in each station between τc, magnitude (Mw) and Pd, hypocenter distance (R) that could be corrected individually. Prediction results of PGA from site correction based ground motion prediction equation (Jean et al. 2006) indicated that the corrected parameters of EEW in this study had improved the accuracy of ground motion prediction. Which means reasonable site correction of each station was needed for EEW system. Key works: earthquake early warning, P wave, site correction

  9. A Walk through TRIDEC's intermediate Tsunami Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammitzsch, M.; Reißland, S.; Lendholt, M.

    2012-04-01

    The management of natural crises is an important application field of the technology developed in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC), co-funded by the European Commission in its Seventh Framework Programme. TRIDEC is based on the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) providing a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination. In TRIDEC new developments in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) are used to extend the existing platform realising a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems for deployment, e.g. in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region. The TRIDEC system will be implemented in three phases, each with a demonstrator. Successively, the demonstrators are addressing challenges, such as the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources with accelerated generation of large volumes of data. These include sensor systems, geo-information repositories, simulation tools and data fusion tools. In addition to conventional sensors also unconventional sensors and sensor networks play an important role in TRIDEC. The system version presented is based on service-oriented architecture (SOA) concepts and on relevant standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS). In this way the system continuously gathers, processes and displays events and data coming from open sensor platforms to enable operators to quickly decide whether an early warning is necessary and to send personalized warning messages to the authorities and the population at large through a wide range of communication channels. The system

  10. Early Warning Models for Systemic Banking Crises in Montenegro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Željka Asanović

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to create an adequate early warning model for systemic banking crises in Montenegro. The probability of banking crisis occurrence is calculated using discrete dependent variable models, more precisely, estimating logit regression. Afterwards, seven simple logit regressions that individually have two explanatory variables are estimated. Adequate weights have been assigned to all seven regressions using the technique of Bayesian model averaging. The advantage of this technique is that it takes into account the model uncertainty by considering various combinations of models in order to minimize the author’s subjective judgment when determining reliable early warning indicators. The results of Bayesian model averaging largely coincide with the results of a previously estimated dynamic logit model. Indicators of credit expansion, thanks to their performances, have a dominant role in early warning models for systemic banking crises in Montenegro. The results have also shown that the Montenegrin banking system is significantly exposed to trends on the global level.

  11. The Lake Victoria Intense Storm Early Warning System (VIEWS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2017-04-01

    Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on NWP, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that also false alarms contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

  12. Flexible Early Warning Systems with Workflows and Decision Tables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riedel, F.; Chaves, F.; Zeiner, H.

    2012-04-01

    An essential part of early warning systems and systems for crisis management are decision support systems that facilitate communication and collaboration. Often official policies specify how different organizations collaborate and what information is communicated to whom. For early warning systems it is crucial that information is exchanged dynamically in a timely manner and all participants get exactly the information they need to fulfil their role in the crisis management process. Information technology obviously lends itself to automate parts of the process. We have experienced however that in current operational systems the information logistics processes are hard-coded, even though they are subject to change. In addition, systems are tailored to the policies and requirements of a certain organization and changes can require major software refactoring. We seek to develop a system that can be deployed and adapted to multiple organizations with different dynamic runtime policies. A major requirement for such a system is that changes can be applied locally without affecting larger parts of the system. In addition to the flexibility regarding changes in policies and processes, the system needs to be able to evolve; when new information sources become available, it should be possible to integrate and use these in the decision process. In general, this kind of flexibility comes with a significant increase in complexity. This implies that only IT professionals can maintain a system that can be reconfigured and adapted; end-users are unable to utilise the provided flexibility. In the business world similar problems arise and previous work suggested using business process management systems (BPMS) or workflow management systems (WfMS) to guide and automate early warning processes or crisis management plans. However, the usability and flexibility of current WfMS are limited, because current notations and user interfaces are still not suitable for end-users, and workflows

  13. Early warning, warning or alarm systems for natural hazards? A generic classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sättele, Martina; Bründl, Michael; Straub, Daniel

    2013-04-01

    Early warning, warning and alarm systems have gained popularity in recent years as cost-efficient measures for dangerous natural hazard processes such as floods, storms, rock and snow avalanches, debris flows, rock and ice falls, landslides, flash floods, glacier lake outburst floods, forest fires and even earthquakes. These systems can generate information before an event causes loss of property and life. In this way, they mainly mitigate the overall risk by reducing the presence probability of endangered objects. These systems are typically prototypes tailored to specific project needs. Despite their importance there is no recognised system classification. This contribution classifies warning and alarm systems into three classes: i) threshold systems, ii) expert systems and iii) model-based expert systems. The result is a generic classification, which takes the characteristics of the natural hazard process itself and the related monitoring possibilities into account. The choice of the monitoring parameters directly determines the system's lead time. The classification of 52 active systems moreover revealed typical system characteristics for each system class. i) Threshold systems monitor dynamic process parameters of ongoing events (e.g. water level of a debris flow) and incorporate minor lead times. They have a local geographical coverage and a predefined threshold determines if an alarm is automatically activated to warn endangered objects, authorities and system operators. ii) Expert systems monitor direct changes in the variable disposition (e.g crack opening before a rock avalanche) or trigger events (e.g. heavy rain) at a local scale before the main event starts and thus offer extended lead times. The final alarm decision incorporates human, model and organisational related factors. iii) Model-based expert systems monitor indirect changes in the variable disposition (e.g. snow temperature, height or solar radiation that influence the occurrence probability

  14. GPS water level measurements for Indonesia's Tsunami Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schöne, T.; Pandoe, W.; Mudita, I.; Roemer, S.; Illigner, J.; Zech, C.; Galas, R.

    2011-03-01

    On Boxing Day 2004, a severe tsunami was generated by a strong earthquake in Northern Sumatra causing a large number of casualties. At this time, neither an offshore buoy network was in place to measure tsunami waves, nor a system to disseminate tsunami warnings to local governmental entities. Since then, buoys have been developed by Indonesia and Germany, complemented by NOAA's Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoys, and have been moored offshore Sumatra and Java. The suite of sensors for offshore tsunami detection in Indonesia has been advanced by adding GPS technology for water level measurements. The usage of GPS buoys in tsunami warning systems is a relatively new approach. The concept of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) (Rudloff et al., 2009) combines GPS technology and ocean bottom pressure (OBP) measurements. Especially for near-field installations where the seismic noise may deteriorate the OBP data, GPS-derived sea level heights provide additional information. The GPS buoy technology is precise enough to detect medium to large tsunamis of amplitudes larger than 10 cm. The analysis presented here suggests that for about 68% of the time, tsunamis larger than 5 cm may be detectable.

  15. GPS water level measurements for Indonesia's Tsunami Early Warning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Schöne

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available On Boxing Day 2004, a severe tsunami was generated by a strong earthquake in Northern Sumatra causing a large number of casualties. At this time, neither an offshore buoy network was in place to measure tsunami waves, nor a system to disseminate tsunami warnings to local governmental entities. Since then, buoys have been developed by Indonesia and Germany, complemented by NOAA's Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART buoys, and have been moored offshore Sumatra and Java. The suite of sensors for offshore tsunami detection in Indonesia has been advanced by adding GPS technology for water level measurements.

    The usage of GPS buoys in tsunami warning systems is a relatively new approach. The concept of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS (Rudloff et al., 2009 combines GPS technology and ocean bottom pressure (OBP measurements. Especially for near-field installations where the seismic noise may deteriorate the OBP data, GPS-derived sea level heights provide additional information.

    The GPS buoy technology is precise enough to detect medium to large tsunamis of amplitudes larger than 10 cm. The analysis presented here suggests that for about 68% of the time, tsunamis larger than 5 cm may be detectable.

  16. Debris flow early warning systems in Norway: organization and tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleivane, I.; Colleuille, H.; Haugen, L. E.; Alve Glad, P.; Devoli, G.

    2012-04-01

    In Norway, shallow slides and debris flows occur as a combination of high-intensity precipitation, snowmelt, high groundwater level and saturated soil. Many events have occurred in the last decades and are often associated with (or related to) floods events, especially in the Southern of Norway, causing significant damages to roads, railway lines, buildings, and other infrastructures (i.e November 2000; August 2003; September 2005; November 2005; Mai 2008; June and Desember 2011). Since 1989 the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) has had an operational 24 hour flood forecasting system for the entire country. From 2009 NVE is also responsible to assist regions and municipalities in the prevention of disasters posed by landslides and snow avalanches. Besides assisting the municipalities through implementation of digital landslides inventories, susceptibility and hazard mapping, areal planning, preparation of guidelines, realization of mitigation measures and helping during emergencies, NVE is developing a regional scale debris flow warning system that use hydrological models that are already available in the flood warning systems. It is well known that the application of rainfall thresholds is not sufficient to evaluate the hazard for debris flows and shallow slides, and soil moisture conditions play a crucial role in the triggering conditions. The information on simulated soil and groundwater conditions and water supply (rain and snowmelt) based on weather forecast, have proved to be useful variables that indicate the potential occurrence of debris flows and shallow slides. Forecasts of runoff and freezing-thawing are also valuable information. The early warning system is using real-time measurements (Discharge; Groundwater level; Soil water content and soil temperature; Snow water equivalent; Meteorological data) and model simulations (a spatially distributed version of the HBV-model and an adapted version of 1-D soil water and energy balance

  17. [Establishment of malaria early warning system in Jiangsu Province III effect of automatic early warning information system on the response of malaria elimination].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei-Ming; Zhou, Hua-Yun; Liu, Yao-Bao; Cao, Yuan-Yuan; Cao, Jun; Gao, Qi

    2014-02-01

    To evaluate the effect of automatic early warning information system on the response of malaria elimination in Jiangsu Province through the operation of the national automatic early warning system of infectious diseases. The malaria early warning information was collected from the automatic early warning information subsystem in the national information system for diseases control and prevention. Malaria early warning signals were analyzed from September 1 to December 31, 2012. The statistical analysis was conducted for the completion rates of case investigation within 3 days before and after the application of malaria early warning information system. Jiangsu Province received 85 mobile phone short messages (SMS) of malaria case from early warning system from September 1 to December 31, 2012. After judgments, 23 cases were deleted including 8 repeated cases and 15 cases that were excluded through the microscopy examination and epidemiological investigation by the confirmation of county CDC. From July to December in 2012, the monthly completion rates of case investigation within 3 days were 55.56%, 78.57%, 90.00%, 100%, 100% and 100%, respectively. The completion rates of case investigation within 3 days in July, August, September and October were significantly different by chi2 test ( chi2 = 10.66, P system. The malaria warning system from the national infectious diseases can effectively improve the response to malaria cases for primary CDC. It also plays an important role for the timely confirmation and diagnosis of malaria cases.

  18. Community participation in tsunami early warning system in Pangandaran town

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadian, Sapari D.; Khadijah, Ute Lies Siti; Saepudin, Encang; Budiono, Agung; Yuliawati, Ayu Krishna

    2017-07-01

    Disaster-resilient communities are communities capable of anticipating and minimizing destructive forces through adaptation. Disaster is an event very close to the people of Indonesia, especially in the small tourism town of Pangadaran located at West Java, Indonesia. On July 17, 2006, the town was hit by a Mw 7.8 earthquake and tsunami that effected over 300 km of the coastline, where the community suffered losses in which more than 600 people were killed, with run up heights exceeding 20 m. The devastation of the tsunami have made the community more alert and together with the local government and other stakeholder develop an Early Warning System for Tsunami. The study is intended to discover issues on tsunami Early Warning System (EWS), disaster risk reduction measures taken and community participation. The research method used is descriptive and explanatory research. The study describe the Tsunami EWS and community based Disaster Risk Reduction in Pangandaran, the implementation of Tsunami alert/EWS in disaster preparedness and observation of community participation in EWS. Data were gathered by secondary data collection, also primary data through interviews, focus group discussions and field observations. Research resulted in a description of EWS implementation, community participation and recommendation to reduce disaster risk in Pangandaran.

  19. ElarmS Earthquake Early Warning System Updates and Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, A. I.; Allen, R. M.; Hellweg, M.; Henson, I. H.; Neuhauser, D. S.

    2015-12-01

    The ElarmS earthquake early warning algorithm has been detecting earthquakes throughout California since 2007. It is one of the algorithms that contributes to CISN's ShakeAlert, a prototype earthquake early warning system being developed for California. Overall, ElarmS performance has been excellent. Over the past year (July 1, 2014 - July 1, 2015), ElarmS successfully detected all but three of the significant earthquakes (M4+) that occurred within California. Of the 24 events that were detected, the most notable was the M6.0 South Napa earthquake that occurred on August 24, 2014. The first alert for this event was sent in 5.1 seconds with an initial magnitude estimate of M5.7. This alert provided approximately 8 seconds of warning of the impending S-wave arrival to the city of San Francisco. The magnitude estimate increased to the final value of M6.0 within 15 seconds of the initial alert. One of the two events that were not detected by ElarmS occurred within 30 seconds of the M6.0 Napa mainshock. The two other missed events occurred offshore in a region with sparse station coverage in the Eureka area. Since its inception, ElarmS has evolved and adapted to meet new challenges. On May 30, 2015, an extraordinarily deep (678km) M7.8 teleseism in Japan generated 5 false event detections for earthquakes greater than M4 within a minute due to the simultaneous arrival of the P-waves at stations throughout California. In order to improve the speed and accuracy of the ElarmS detections, we are currently exploring new methodologies to quickly evaluate incoming triggers from individual stations. Rapidly determining whether or not a trigger at a given station is due to a local earthquake or some other source (such as a distant teleseism) could dramatically increase the confidence in individual triggers and reduce false alerts.

  20. The Construction of Early-warning Index System in Regional Circular Economy of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kang Yanqing

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the model of early warning system for circular economy development system was studied, the early-warning system for circular economy provides a quantitative model to support the pollution control. Specifically, this paper built an early warning index system of regional circular economy, and put forward the measure model for the development of circular economy. In addition, this paper constructed prediction model of the circulation economy development. Finally, by the proposed early warning model, this paper analysed the circular economy of Henan province and targeted policy suggestions were put forward for the construction of circular economy of Henan province.

  1. Multicriteria Early Warning System of Enterprises against the Bankruptcy Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Korol

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This article is devoted to the issue of forecasting the bankruptcy risk of the enterprises. In the article author compares the effectiveness of multicriteria early warning system with the traditional discriminant analysis model of forecasting the risks of bankruptcy of companies. In the conducted research author has used data on 185 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange Market. This population of firms was divided into learning and testing setdata. Each company has been analyzed using the absolute values of 14 financial ratios and the dynamics of change of these ratios. Additionally, author has used the macroeconomic variables in developed multicriteria system. The author’s developed models are characterized by high efficiency. These studies are the first attempt to use fuzzy logic to predict the bankruptcy of companies in Poland and one of the first in the world. Obtained results demonstrate the great potential of this method.  

  2. Early Warning System: a juridical notion to be built

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucarelli, A.

    2007-12-01

    Early warning systems (EWS) are becoming effective tools for real time mitigation of the harmful effects arising from widely different hazards, which range from famine to financial crisis, malicious attacks, industrial accidents, natural catastrophes, etc. Early warning of natural catastrophic events allows to implement both alert systems and real time prevention actions for the safety of people and goods exposed to the risk However the effective implementation of early warning methods is hindered by the lack of a specific juridical frame. Under a juridical point of view, in fact, EWS and in general all the activities of prevention need a careful regulation, mainly with regards to responsibility and possible compensation for damage caused by the implemented actions. A preventive alarm, in fact, has an active influence on infrastructures in control of public services which in turn will suffer suspensions or interruptions because of the early warning actions. From here it is necessary to possess accurate normative references related to the typology of structures or infrastructures upon which the activity of readiness acts; the progressive order of suspension of public services; the duration of these suspensions; the corporate bodies or administrations that are competent to assume such decisions; the actors responsible for the consequences of false alarm, missed or delayed alarms; the mechanisms of compensation for damage; the insurance systems; etc In the European Union EWS are often quoted as preventive methods of mitigation of the risk. Nevertheless, a juridical notion of EWS of general use is not available. In fact, EW is a concept that finds application in many different circles, each of which require specific adaptations, and may concern subjects for which the European Union doesn't have exclusive competence as may be the responsibility of the member states to assign the necessary regulations. In so far as the juridical arrangement of the EWS, this must be

  3. An Imbalanced Learning based MDR-TB Early Warning System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Sheng; Tang, Bo; He, Haibo

    2016-07-01

    As a man-made disease, multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is mainly caused by improper treatment programs and poor patient supervision, most of which could be prevented. According to the daily treatment and inspection records of tuberculosis (TB) cases, this study focuses on establishing a warning system which could early evaluate the risk of TB patients converting to MDR-TB using machine learning methods. Different imbalanced sampling strategies and classification methods were compared due to the disparity between the number of TB cases and MDR-TB cases in historical data. The final results show that the relative optimal predictions results can be obtained by adopting CART-USBagg classification model in the first 90 days of half of a standardized treatment process.

  4. Quantifying the effectiveness of early warning systems for natural hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sättele

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Early warning systems (EWS are increasingly applied as preventive measures within an integrated risk management approach for natural hazards. At present, common standards and detailed guidelines for the evaluation of their effectiveness are lacking. To support decision-makers in the identification of optimal risk mitigation measures, a three-step framework approach for the evaluation of EWS is presented. The effectiveness is calculated in function of the technical and the inherent reliability of the EWS. The framework is applicable to automated and non-automated EWS and combinations thereof. To address the specifics and needs of a wide variety of EWS designs, a classification of EWS is provided, which focuses on the degree of automations encountered in varying EWS. The framework and its implementation are illustrated through a series of example applications of EWS in an alpine environment.

  5. Geological hazards: from early warning systems to public health toolkits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samarasundera, Edgar; Hansell, Anna; Leibovici, Didier; Horwell, Claire J; Anand, Suchith; Oppenheimer, Clive

    2014-11-01

    Extreme geological events, such as earthquakes, are a significant global concern and sometimes their consequences can be devastating. Geographic information plays a critical role in health protection regarding hazards, and there are a range of initiatives using geographic information to communicate risk as well as to support early warning systems operated by geologists. Nevertheless we consider there to remain shortfalls in translating information on extreme geological events into health protection tools, and suggest that social scientists have an important role to play in aiding the development of a new generation of toolkits aimed at public health practitioners. This viewpoint piece reviews the state of the art in this domain and proposes potential contributions different stakeholder groups, including social scientists, could bring to the development of new toolkits.

  6. Overview of Existing Landslide Early-Warning Systems in Operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michoud, C.; Bazin, S.; Blikra, L. H.; Derron, M.-H.; Jaboyedoff, M.

    2012-04-01

    The project SafeLand is intended to develop generic risk management tools and strategies for landslides. Indeed, the intention of the screening study is to provide guidelines that will help and facilitate the establishment of new early warning systems (EWS) and to increase the quality of existing systems (Bazin et al., 2012). Consequently, one of the first steps is to merge actual knowledge and expert judgments. Thus, as part of this study, we gathered experiences from organizations in charge of landslide EWSs and risk management in order to compile information about the state of the art technologies and existing strategies. To ensure those objectives, a questionnaire was produced by UNIL, ICG and ÅTB. Divided in 5 parts, the questionnaires collected information about: 1. General information on the unit in charge of the EWS; 2. Knowledge about the monitored landslide; 3. Pre-investigations used to design the EWS; 4. Monitoring parameters, thresholds and sensors evaluation; 5. Warnings, communications and decision making process. Finally, sent in June 2011 to about hundred organizations in charge of one or several EWS, 14 institutions from 8 countries sent the questionnaires back during the summer and autumn 2011, speaking about 23 landslides. The compilation and analysis of the most interesting answers are the scope of this poster. First, there are no common requirements to design and operate EWSs. From the surveyed countries, only Norway and Slovakia have produced codes or recommendations for this purpose. Secondly, more than 81% of the EWSs are based on displacement monitoring, certainly because it is the direct evidence of deformations. Then the weather conditions are monitored for more than half of the cases. It is also an essential parameter since rainfalls are a destabilizing factor for more than 80% of the studied landslides. Then, advantages and limitations of existing EWSs are clearly defined. Indeed, an EWS should be (1) robust, (2) simple, (3) redundant

  7. Integration of WERA Ocean Radar into Tsunami Early Warning Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dzvonkovskaya, Anna; Helzel, Thomas; Kniephoff, Matthias; Petersen, Leif; Weber, Bernd

    2016-04-01

    High-frequency (HF) ocean radars give a unique capability to deliver simultaneous wide area measurements of ocean surface current fields and sea state parameters far beyond the horizon. The WERA® ocean radar system is a shore-based remote sensing system to monitor ocean surface in near real-time and at all-weather conditions up to 300 km offshore. Tsunami induced surface currents cause increasing orbital velocities comparing to normal oceanographic situation and affect the measured radar spectra. The theoretical approach about tsunami influence on radar spectra showed that a tsunami wave train generates a specific unusual pattern in the HF radar spectra. While the tsunami wave is approaching the beach, the surface current pattern changes slightly in deep water and significantly in the shelf area as it was shown in theoretical considerations and later proved during the 2011 Japan tsunami. These observed tsunami signatures showed that the velocity of tsunami currents depended on a tsunami wave height and bathymetry. The HF ocean radar doesn't measure the approaching wave height of a tsunami; however, it can resolve the surface current velocity signature, which is generated when tsunami reaches the shelf edge. This strong change of the surface current can be detected by a phased-array WERA system in real-time; thus the WERA ocean radar is a valuable tool to support Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). Based on real tsunami measurements, requirements for the integration of ocean radar systems into TEWS are already defined. The requirements include a high range resolution, a narrow beam directivity of phased-array antennas and an accelerated data update mode to provide a possibility of offshore tsunami detection in real-time. The developed software package allows reconstructing an ocean surface current map of the area observed by HF radar based on the radar power spectrum processing. This fact gives an opportunity to issue an automated tsunami identification message

  8. An early warning system for flash floods in Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cools, J.; Abdelkhalek, A.; El Sammany, M.; Fahmi, A. H.; Bauwens, W.; Huygens, M.

    2009-09-01

    This paper describes the development of the Flash Flood Manager, abbreviated as FlaFloM. The Flash Flood Manager is an early warning system for flash floods which is developed under the EU LIFE project FlaFloM. It is applied to Wadi Watier located in the Sinai peninsula (Egypt) and discharges in the Red Sea at the local economic and tourist hub of Nuweiba city. FlaFloM consists of a chain of four modules: 1) Data gathering module, 2) Forecasting module, 3) Decision support module or DSS and 4) Warning module. Each module processes input data and consequently send the output to the following module. In case of a flash flood emergency, the final outcome of FlaFloM is a flood warning which is sent out to decision-makers. The ‘data gathering module’ collects input data from different sources, validates the input, visualise data and exports it to other modules. Input data is provided ideally as water stage (h), discharge (Q) and rainfall (R) through real-time field measurements and external forecasts. This project, however, as occurs in many arid flash flood prone areas, was confronted with a scarcity of data, and insufficient insight in the characteristics that release a flash flood. Hence, discharge and water stage data were not available. Although rainfall measurements are available through classical off line rain gauges, the sparse rain gauges network couldn’t catch the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall events. To overcome this bottleneck, we developed rainfall intensity raster maps (mm/hr) with an hourly time step and raster cell of 1*1km. These maps are derived through downscaling from two sources of global instruments: the weather research and forecasting model (WRF) and satellite estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). The ‘forecast module’ comprises three numerical models that, using data from the gathering module performs simulations on command: a rainfall-runoff model, a river flow model, and a flood model. A

  9. Experiences from site-specific landslide early warning systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Michoud

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Landslide early warning systems (EWSs have to be implemented in areas with large risk for populations or infrastructures when classical structural remediation measures cannot be set up. This paper aims to gather experiences of existing landslide EWSs, with a special focus on practical requirements (e.g., alarm threshold values have to take into account the smallest detectable signal levels of deployed sensors before being established and specific issues when dealing with system implementations. Within the framework of the SafeLand European project, a questionnaire was sent to about one-hundred institutions in charge of landslide management. Finally, we interpreted answers from experts belonging to 14 operational units related to 23 monitored landslides. Although no standard requirements exist for designing and operating EWSs, this review highlights some key elements, such as the importance of pre-investigation work, the redundancy and robustness of monitoring systems, the establishment of different scenarios adapted to gradual increasing of alert levels, and the necessity of confidence and trust between local populations and scientists. Moreover, it also confirms the need to improve our capabilities for failure forecasting, monitoring techniques and integration of water processes into landslide conceptual models.

  10. On the importance of risk knowledge for an end-to-end tsunami early warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, Joachim; Strunz, Günter; Riedlinger, Torsten; Mück, Matthias; Wegscheider, Stephanie; Zosseder, Kai; Steinmetz, Tilmann; Gebert, Niklas; Anwar, Herryal

    2010-05-01

    Warning systems commonly use information provided by networks of sensors able to monitor and detect impending disasters, aggregate and condense these information to provide reliable information to a decision maker whether to warn or not, disseminates the warning message and provide this information to people at risk. Ultimate aim is to enable those in danger to make decisions (e.g. initiate protective actions for buildings) and to take action to safe their lives. This involves very complex issues when considering all four elements of early warning systems (UNISDR-PPEW), namely (1) risk knowledge, (2) monitoring and warning service, (3) dissemination and communication, (4) response capability with the ultimate aim to gain as much time as possible to empower individuals and communities to act in an appropriate manner to reduce injury, loss of life, damage to property and the environment and loss of livelihoods. Commonly most warning systems feature strengths and main attention on the technical/structural dimension (monitoring & warning service, dissemination tools) with weaknesses and less attention on social/cultural dimension (e.g. human response capabilities, defined warning chain to and knowing what to do by the people). Also, the use of risk knowledge in early warning most often is treated in a theoretical manner (knowing that it is somehow important), yet less in an operational, practical sense. Risk assessments and risk maps help to motivate people, prioritise early warning system needs and guide preparations for response and disaster prevention activities. Beyond this risk knowledge can be seen as a tie between national level early warning and community level reaction schemes. This presentation focuses on results, key findings and lessons-learnt related to tsunami risk assessment in the context of early warning within the GITEWS (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning) project. Here a novel methodology reflecting risk information needs in the early warning

  11. Earthquake early warning system using real-time signal processing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leach, R.R. Jr.; Dowla, F.U.

    1996-02-01

    An earthquake warning system has been developed to provide a time series profile from which vital parameters such as the time until strong shaking begins, the intensity of the shaking, and the duration of the shaking, can be derived. Interaction of different types of ground motion and changes in the elastic properties of geological media throughout the propagation path result in a highly nonlinear function. We use neural networks to model these nonlinearities and develop learning techniques for the analysis of temporal precursors occurring in the emerging earthquake seismic signal. The warning system is designed to analyze the first-arrival from the three components of an earthquake signal and instantaneously provide a profile of impending ground motion, in as little as 0.3 sec after first ground motion is felt at the sensors. For each new data sample, at a rate of 25 samples per second, the complete profile of the earthquake is updated. The profile consists of a magnitude-related estimate as well as an estimate of the envelope of the complete earthquake signal. The envelope provides estimates of damage parameters, such as time until peak ground acceleration (PGA) and duration. The neural network based system is trained using seismogram data from more than 400 earthquakes recorded in southern California. The system has been implemented in hardware using silicon accelerometers and a standard microprocessor. The proposed warning units can be used for site-specific applications, distributed networks, or to enhance existing distributed networks. By producing accurate, and informative warnings, the system has the potential to significantly minimize the hazards of catastrophic ground motion. Detailed system design and performance issues, including error measurement in a simple warning scenario are discussed in detail.

  12. CISN ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System Monitoring Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henson, I. H.; Allen, R. M.; Neuhauser, D. S.

    2015-12-01

    CISN ShakeAlert is a prototype earthquake early warning system being developed and tested by the California Integrated Seismic Network. The system has recently been expanded to support redundant data processing and communications. It now runs on six machines at three locations with ten Apache ActiveMQ message brokers linking together 18 waveform processors, 12 event association processes and 4 Decision Module alert processes. The system ingests waveform data from about 500 stations and generates many thousands of triggers per day, from which a small portion produce earthquake alerts. We have developed interactive web browser system-monitoring tools that display near real time state-of-health and performance information. This includes station availability, trigger statistics, communication and alert latencies. Connections to regional earthquake catalogs provide a rapid assessment of the Decision Module hypocenter accuracy. Historical performance can be evaluated, including statistics for hypocenter and origin time accuracy and alert time latencies for different time periods, magnitude ranges and geographic regions. For the ElarmS event associator, individual earthquake processing histories can be examined, including details of the transmission and processing latencies associated with individual P-wave triggers. Individual station trigger and latency statistics are available. Detailed information about the ElarmS trigger association process for both alerted events and rejected events is also available. The Google Web Toolkit and Map API have been used to develop interactive web pages that link tabular and geographic information. Statistical analysis is provided by the R-Statistics System linked to a PostgreSQL database.

  13. The Namibia Early Flood Warning System, A CEOS Pilot Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandl, Daniel; Frye, Stuart; Cappelaere, Pat; Sohlberg, Robert; Handy, Matthew; Grossman, Robert

    2012-01-01

    Over the past year few years, an international collaboration has developed a pilot project under the auspices of Committee on Earth Observation Satellite (CEOS) Disasters team. The overall team consists of civilian satellite agencies. For this pilot effort, the development team consists of NASA, Canadian Space Agency, Univ. of Maryland, Univ. of Colorado, Univ. of Oklahoma, Ukraine Space Research Institute and Joint Research Center(JRC) for European Commission. This development team collaborates with regional , national and international agencies to deliver end-to-end disaster coverage. In particular, the team in collaborating on this effort with the Namibia Department of Hydrology to begin in Namibia . However, the ultimate goal is to expand the functionality to provide early warning over the South Africa region. The initial collaboration was initiated by United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs and CEOS Working Group for Information Systems and Services (WGISS). The initial driver was to demonstrate international interoperability using various space agency sensors and models along with regional in-situ ground sensors. In 2010, the team created a preliminary semi-manual system to demonstrate moving and combining key data streams and delivering the data to the Namibia Department of Hydrology during their flood season which typically is January through April. In this pilot, a variety of moderate resolution and high resolution satellite flood imagery was rapidly delivered and used in conjunction with flood predictive models in Namibia. This was collected in conjunction with ground measurements and was used to examine how to create a customized flood early warning system. During the first year, the team made use of SensorWeb technology to gather various sensor data which was used to monitor flood waves traveling down basins originating in Angola, but eventually flooding villages in Namibia. The team made use of standardized interfaces such as those articulated

  14. Incorporating Hydroepidemiology into the Epidemia Malaria Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wimberly, M. C.; Merkord, C. L.; Henebry, G. M.; Senay, G. B.

    2014-12-01

    Early warning of the timing and locations of malaria epidemics can facilitate the targeting of resources for prevention and emergency response. In response to this need, we are developing the Epidemic Prognosis Incorporating Disease and Environmental Monitoring for Integrated Assessment (EPIDEMIA) computer system. EPIDEMIA incorporates software for capturing, processing, and integrating environmental and epidemiological data from multiple sources; data assimilation techniques that continually update models and forecasts; and a web-based interface that makes the resulting information available to public health decision makers. The system will enable forecasts that incorporate lagged responses to environmental risk factors as well as information about recent trends in malaria cases. Because the egg, larval, and pupal stages of mosquito development occur in aquatic habitats, information about the spatial and temporal distributions of stagnant water bodies is critical for modeling malaria risk. Potential sources of hydrological data include satellite-derived rainfall estimates, evapotranspiration (ET) calculated using a simplified surface energy balance model, and estimates of soil moisture and fractional water cover from passive microwave radiometry. We used partial least squares regression to analyze and visualize seasonal patterns of these variables in relation to malaria cases using data from 49 districts in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. Seasonal patterns of rainfall were strongly associated with the incidence and seasonality of malaria across the region, and model fit was improved by the addition of remotely-sensed ET and soil moisture variables. The results highlight the importance of remotely-sensed hydrological data for modeling malaria risk in this region and emphasize the value of an ensemble approach that utilizes multiple sources of information about precipitation and land surface wetness. These variables will be incorporated into the forecasting models at

  15. Research on Technology Early-Warning System Based on Dynamic Information Monitoring

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Xue-feng; ZHU Dong-hua; LIU Song; LIU Jia

    2009-01-01

    Relying on the advanced information technologies,such as information monitoring,data mining,natural language processing etc.,the dynamic technology early-warning system is constructed.The system consists of technology information automatic retrieval,technology information monitoring,technology threat evaluation,and crisis response and management subsystem,which implements uninterrupted dynamic monitoring,trace and crisis early-warning to the specific technology.Empirical study testifies that the system improves the accuracy,timeliness and reliability of technology early-warning.

  16. EPA, NASA, NOAA and USGS Creating Early Warning System to Detect Harmful Algal Blooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    WASHINGTON- The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced today that it is developing an early warning indicator system using historical and current satellite data to detect algal blooms. EPA researchers will develop a mobile app to inform water

  17. Technology-Based Early Warning Systems for Bipolar Disorder: A Conceptual Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Depp, Colin; Torous, John; Thompson, Wesley

    2016-09-07

    Recognition and timely action around "warning signs" of illness exacerbation is central to the self-management of bipolar disorder. Due to its heterogeneity and fluctuating course, passive and active mobile technologies have been increasingly evaluated as adjunctive or standalone tools to predict and prevent risk of worsening of course in bipolar disorder. As predictive analytics approaches to big data from mobile health (mHealth) applications and ancillary sensors advance, it is likely that early warning systems will increasingly become available to patients. Such systems could reduce the amount of time spent experiencing symptoms and diminish the immense disability experienced by people with bipolar disorder. However, in addition to the challenges in validating such systems, we argue that early warning systems may not be without harms. Probabilistic warnings may be delivered to individuals who may not be able to interpret the warning, have limited information about what behaviors to change, or are unprepared to or cannot feasibly act due to time or logistic constraints. We propose five essential elements for early warning systems and provide a conceptual framework for designing, incorporating stakeholder input, and validating early warning systems for bipolar disorder with a focus on pragmatic considerations.

  18. Technology-Based Early Warning Systems for Bipolar Disorder: A Conceptual Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torous, John; Thompson, Wesley

    2016-01-01

    Recognition and timely action around “warning signs” of illness exacerbation is central to the self-management of bipolar disorder. Due to its heterogeneity and fluctuating course, passive and active mobile technologies have been increasingly evaluated as adjunctive or standalone tools to predict and prevent risk of worsening of course in bipolar disorder. As predictive analytics approaches to big data from mobile health (mHealth) applications and ancillary sensors advance, it is likely that early warning systems will increasingly become available to patients. Such systems could reduce the amount of time spent experiencing symptoms and diminish the immense disability experienced by people with bipolar disorder. However, in addition to the challenges in validating such systems, we argue that early warning systems may not be without harms. Probabilistic warnings may be delivered to individuals who may not be able to interpret the warning, have limited information about what behaviors to change, or are unprepared to or cannot feasibly act due to time or logistic constraints. We propose five essential elements for early warning systems and provide a conceptual framework for designing, incorporating stakeholder input, and validating early warning systems for bipolar disorder with a focus on pragmatic considerations. PMID:27604265

  19. Early Warning System for Disasters within Health Organizations: A Mandatory System for Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rouhollah Zaboli

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Disaster identification and alert systems can be processed in different ways. An early warning system is designed to detect impending danger and send appropriate and clear signals to at risk communities and organizations at the right time and in an unambiguous way. This study aimed to determine early warning system for disaster within health organization in Iran. Methods: This article presents the findings of a mixed-methods study of early warning systems for disaster management within the health organizations in Iran. During the years 2011 to 2012, a sample of 230 health managers was surveyed using a questionnaire and 65 semi-structured interviews were conducted with public health and therapeutic affairs managers who were responsible for disaster management. Results: A range of problems were identified. Although there is a multiagency alert system within the health organizations, other indicators of early warning system are not satisfactory. Furthermore, standard messages which are used to alert organizations are not used under the current system. Conclusion: Some activities such as memorandum of understanding among different stakeholders of disaster response and education of staff and communities could improve the response to disasters within the health organizations.

  20. Evolution of an Early Illness Warning System to Monitor Frail Elders in Independent Living

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory L. Alexander

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the evolution of an early illness warning system used by an interdisciplinary team composed of clinicians and engineers in an independent living facility. The early illness warning system consists of algorithms which analyze resident activity patterns obtained from sensors embedded in residents' apartments. The engineers designed an automated reasoning system to generate clinically relevant alerts which are sent to clinicians when significant changes occur in the sensor data, for example declining activity levels. During January 2010 through July 2010, clinicians and engineers conducted weekly iterative review cycles of the early illness warning system to discuss concerns about the functionality of the warning system, to recommend solutions for the concerns, and to evaluate the implementation of the solutions. A total of 45 concerns were reviewed during this period. Iterative reviews resulted in greater efficiencies and satisfaction for clinician users who were monitoring elder activity patterns.

  1. Warning systems and public warning response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sorensen, J.H.

    1993-09-01

    This background paper reviews current knowledge on warning systems and human response to warnings. It expands on an earlier paper prepared for a workshop on the Second Assessment on Natural Hazards, held in Estes Park, Colorado in July 1992. Although it has a North American perspective, many of the lessons learned are universally applicable. The paper addresses warning systems in terms of dissemination and does not cover physical science issues associated with prediction and forecast. Finally, it covers hazards with relatively short lead times -- 48 hours or less. It does not address topics such as long-term forecasts of earthquakes or volcanic eruptions or early famine warning systems.

  2. Information systems in a changing climate: Early warnings and drought risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roger S. Pulwarty

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Drought is among the most damaging, and least understood, of all “natural” hazards. Although some droughts last a single season and affect only small areas, the instrumental and paleoclimate records show that droughts have sometimes continued for decades and have impacted millions of square kilometers in North America, West Africa, and East Asia. To cross the spectrum of potential drivers and impacts, drought information systems have multiple sub-systems which include an integrated risk assessment, communication and decision support system of which early warning is a central component and output. An early warning system is much more than a forecast – it is a linked risk information (including people׳s perception of risk and communication system that actively engages communities involved in preparedness. There are numerous drought systems warning systems being implemented at different scales of governance. We draw on the lessons of over 21 drought early warning systems around the world, in both developing and developed countries and at regional, national and community levels. The successes illustrate that effective early warning depends upon a multi-sectoral and interdisciplinary collaboration among all concerned actors at each stage in the warning process from monitoring to response and evaluation. However, the links between the community-based approach and the national and global EWSs are relatively weak. Using the rich experience of information systems across the globe, this paper identifies pathways for knowledge management and action at the relevant scales for decision-making in response to a changing climate.

  3. Dead Bird Clusters as an Early Warning System for West Nile Virus Activity

    OpenAIRE

    2003-01-01

    An early warning system for West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks could provide a basis for targeted public education and surveillance activities as well as more timely larval and adult mosquito control. We adapted the spatial scan statistic for prospective detection of infectious disease outbreaks, applied the results to data on dead birds reported from New York City in 2000, and reviewed its utility in providing an early warning of WNV activity in 2001. Prospective geographic cluster analysis of ...

  4. How do I know if I’ve improved my continental scale flood early warning system?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cloke, Hannah L.; Pappenberger, Florian; Smith, Paul J.; Wetterhall, Fredrik

    2017-04-01

    Flood early warning systems mitigate damages and loss of life and are an economically efficient way of enhancing disaster resilience. The use of continental scale flood early warning systems is rapidly growing. The European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) is a pan-European flood early warning system forced by a multi-model ensemble of numerical weather predictions. Responses to scientific and technical changes can be complex in these computationally expensive continental scale systems, and improvements need to be tested by evaluating runs of the whole system. It is demonstrated here that forecast skill is not correlated with the value of warnings. In order to tell if the system has been improved an evaluation strategy is required that considers both forecast skill and warning value. The combination of a multi-forcing ensemble of EFAS flood forecasts is evaluated with a new skill-value strategy. The full multi-forcing ensemble is recommended for operational forecasting, but, there are spatial variations in the optimal forecast combination. Results indicate that optimizing forecasts based on value rather than skill alters the optimal forcing combination and the forecast performance. Also indicated is that model diversity and ensemble size are both important in achieving best overall performance. The use of several evaluation measures that consider both skill and value is strongly recommended when considering improvements to early warning systems.

  5. Study of Enterprises Marketing Risk Early Warning System Based on BP Neural Network Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Mei-hua; WANG Fu-dong; ZHANG Hong-hong

    2006-01-01

    For effectively early warning the marketing risk caused along with the varied environment, a BP neural network method was introduced on the basis of analyzing the shortcomings of the risk early warning method, and combined with the practical conditions of dairy enterprises, the index system caused by the marketing risk was also studied. The principal component method was used for screening the indexes, the grades and critical values of the marketing risk were determined. Through the configuration of BP network, node processing and error analysis, the early warning results of the marketing risk were obtained. The results indicate that BP neural network method can be effectively applied through the function approach in the marketing early warning with incomplete information and complex varied conditions.

  6. Web-based Tsunami Early Warning System with instant Tsunami Propagation Calculations in the GPU Cloud

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammitzsch, M.; Spazier, J.; Reißland, S.

    2014-12-01

    Usually, tsunami early warning and mitigation systems (TWS or TEWS) are based on several software components deployed in a client-server based infrastructure. The vast majority of systems importantly include desktop-based clients with a graphical user interface (GUI) for the operators in early warning centers. However, in times of cloud computing and ubiquitous computing the use of concepts and paradigms, introduced by continuously evolving approaches in information and communications technology (ICT), have to be considered even for early warning systems (EWS). Based on the experiences and the knowledge gained in three research projects - 'German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System' (GITEWS), 'Distant Early Warning System' (DEWS), and 'Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises' (TRIDEC) - new technologies are exploited to implement a cloud-based and web-based prototype to open up new prospects for EWS. This prototype, named 'TRIDEC Cloud', merges several complementary external and in-house cloud-based services into one platform for automated background computation with graphics processing units (GPU), for web-mapping of hazard specific geospatial data, and for serving relevant functionality to handle, share, and communicate threat specific information in a collaborative and distributed environment. The prototype in its current version addresses tsunami early warning and mitigation. The integration of GPU accelerated tsunami simulation computations have been an integral part of this prototype to foster early warning with on-demand tsunami predictions based on actual source parameters. However, the platform is meant for researchers around the world to make use of the cloud-based GPU computation to analyze other types of geohazards and natural hazards and react upon the computed situation picture with a web-based GUI in a web browser at remote sites. The current website is an early alpha version for demonstration purposes to give the

  7. Flood and landslide warning based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes: the HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System for Sicily

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Brigandì

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The main focus of the paper is to present a flood and landslide early warning system, named HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System, specifically developed for the Civil Protection Department of Sicily, based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture modelling and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF. The warning system is referred to 9 different Alert Zones in which Sicily has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels: ordinary, moderate and high. In this system, for early flood warning, a Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA model provides daily soil moisture conditions, which allow to select a specific set of three rainfall thresholds, one for each critical level considered, to be used for issue the alert bulletin. Wetness indexes, representative of the soil moisture conditions of a catchment, are calculated using a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall–streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method, and on the unit hydrograph approach, that require daily observed and/or predicted rainfall, and temperature data as input. For the calibration of this model daily continuous time series of rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data are used. An event based lumped rainfall–runoff model has been, instead, used for the derivation of the rainfall thresholds for each catchment in Sicily characterised by an area larger than 50 km2. In particular, a Kinematic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall–runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall was developed for this purpose. For rainfall-induced shallow landslide warning, empirical rainfall thresholds provided by Gariano et al. (2015 have been included in the system. They were derived on an empirical basis starting from a catalogue of 265 shallow landslides in Sicily in the period 2002–2012. Finally, Delft-FEWS operational forecasting platform has been applied to link input data, SMA model and rainfall

  8. Building an Early Warning System for Crude Oil Price Using Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wonho Song

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a crisis index for the oil price shock is defined and a neural network model is specified for the prediction of the crisis index. This paper contributes to the literature in three ways. First, we build an early warning system for crude oil price. Although the oil price became one of the most important price index recently, no research efforts have been made to build an early warning system for crude oil price. Second, the neural network (NN model is used to construct the early warning sysIn this paper, a crisis index for the oil price shock is defined and a neural network model is specified for the prediction of the crisis index. This paper contributes to the literature in three ways. First, we build an early warning system for crude oil price. Although the oil price became one of the most important price index recently, no research efforts have been made to build an early warning system for crude oil price. Second, the neural network (NN model is used to construct the early warning system. Most early warning systems are built based on the signaling approach. In this paper, we show that the neural network models are more flexible and have greater potential as EWS than the signaling approach. Third, we allow the multi-level crisis index. Previous models allowed only a zero/one crisis index whereas our model permits as many levels as possible. With this new model, we try to answer whether the oil price collapse following the historical peak in 2008 was predictable. We compare the results from the NN model with those from the ordered probit (OP model, and show that the oil price crisis and the following crash were predictable by the NN model, but not by the OP model.

  9. Strategic framework for socioeconomic viability of community-based early warning system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Homberg, M.J.C. van den; Posthumus, A.L.

    2014-01-01

    Christian Aid, Cordaid, PVGS and Practical Action established a community-based early warning system for cross-border floods between India and Nepal in 45 Indian villages. The project will scale to 95 villages early 2016. The number of stakeholders and organizational levels of this system with four

  10. Strategic framework for socioeconomic viability of community-based early warning system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Homberg, M.J.C. van den; Posthumus, A.L.

    2014-01-01

    Christian Aid, Cordaid, PVGS and Practical Action established a community-based early warning system for cross-border floods between India and Nepal in 45 Indian villages. The project will scale to 95 villages early 2016. The number of stakeholders and organizational levels of this system with four

  11. People-centred landslide early warning systems in the context of risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haß, S.; Asch, K.; Fernandez-Steeger, T.; Arnhardt, C.

    2009-04-01

    In the current hazard research people-centred warning becomes more and more important, because different types of organizations and groups have to be involved in the warning process. This fact has to be taken into account when developing early warning systems. The effectiveness of early warning depends not only on technical capabilities but also on the preparedness of decision makers and their immediate response on how to act in case of emergency. Hence early warning systems have to be regarded in the context of an integrated and holistic risk management. Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) measures include people-centred, timely and understandable warning. Further responsible authorities have to be identified in advance and standards for risk communication have to be established. Up to now, hazard and risk assessment for geohazards focuses on the development of inventory, susceptibility, hazard and risk maps. But often, especially in Europe, there are no institutional structures for managing geohazards and in addition there is a lack of an authority that is legally obliged to alarm on landslides at national or regional level. One of the main characteristics within the warning process for natural hazards e.g. in Germany is the split of responsibility between scientific authorities (wissenschaftliche Fachbehörde) and enforcement authorities (Vollzugsbehörde). The scientific authority provides the experts who define the methods and measures for monitoring and evaluate the hazard level. The main focus is the acquisition and evaluation of data and subsequently the distribution of information. The enforcement authority issues official warnings about dangerous natural phenomena. Hence the information chain in the context of early warning ranges over two different institutions, the forecast service and the warning service. But there doesn't exist a framework for warning processes in terms of landslides as yet. The concept for managing natural disasters is often reduced to

  12. Development of structural health monitoring and early warning system for reinforced concrete system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iranata, Data, E-mail: iranata-data@yahoo.com, E-mail: data@ce.its.ac.id; Wahyuni, Endah [Civil Engineering Department, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember (ITS), Surabaya 60111 (Indonesia); Murtiadi, Suryawan [Civil Engineering Department, Universitas Mataram, Mataram 83125 (Indonesia); Widodo, Amien [Geophysical Engineering Department, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember (ITS), Surabaya 60111 (Indonesia); Riksakomara, Edwin; Sani, Nisfu Asrul [Information Systems Department, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember (ITS), Surabaya 60111 (Indonesia)

    2015-04-24

    Many buildings have been damaged due to earthquakes that occurred recently in Indonesia. The main cause of the damage is the large deformation of the building structural component cannot accommodate properly. Therefore, it is necessary to develop the Structural Health Monitoring System (SHMS) to measure precisely the deformation of the building structural component in the real time conditions. This paper presents the development of SHMS for reinforced concrete structural system. This monitoring system is based on deformation component such as strain of reinforcement bar, concrete strain, and displacement of reinforced concrete component. Since the deformation component has exceeded the limit value, the warning message can be sent to the building occupies. This warning message has also can be performed as early warning system of the reinforced concrete structural system. The warning message can also be sent via Short Message Service (SMS) through the Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) network. Hence, the SHMS should be integrated with internet modem to connect with GSM network. Additionally, the SHMS program is verified with experimental study of simply supported reinforced concrete beam. Verification results show that the SHMS has good agreement with experimental results.

  13. Drought Risk Identification: Early Warning System of Seasonal Agrometeorological Drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalecios, Nicolas; Spyropoulos, Nicos V.; Tarquis, Ana M.

    2014-05-01

    By considering drought as a hazard, drought types are classified into three categories, namely meteorological or climatological, agrometeorological or agricultural and hydrological drought and as a fourth class the socioeconomic impacts can be considered. This paper addresses agrometeorological drought affecting agriculture within the risk management framework. Risk management consists of risk assessment, as well as a feedback on the adopted risk reduction measures. And risk assessment comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. This paper deals with the quantification and monitoring of agrometeorological drought, which constitute part of risk identification. For the quantitative assessment of agrometeorological or agricultural drought, as well as the computation of spatiotemporal features, one of the most reliable and widely used indices is applied, namely the Vegetation Health Index (VHI). The computation of VHI is based on satellite data of temperature and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The spatiotemporal features of drought, which are extracted from VHI are: areal extent, onset and end time, duration and severity. In this paper, a 20-year (1981-2001) time series of NOAA/AVHRR satellite data is used, where monthly images of VHI are extracted. Application is implemented in Thessaly, which is the major agricultural region of Greece characterized by vulnerable and drought-prone agriculture. The results show that every year there is a seasonal agrometeorological drought with a gradual increase in the areal extent and severity with peaks appearing usually during the summer. Drought monitoring is conducted by monthly remotely sensed VHI images. Drought early warning is developed using empirical relationships of severity and areal extent. In particular, two second-order polynomials are fitted, one for low and the other for high severity drought, respectively. The two fitted curves offer a seasonal

  14. A Framework for Monitoring and Maintenance of a Tsunami Early Warning System using ITIL®

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gensch, Stephan; Günther, Michael; Henneberger, Ralph; Strollo, Angelo

    2013-04-01

    Within this work, we present our approach and ongoing efforts to establish monitoring and maintenance processes for Tsunami Early Warning Systems. Practical work is done within the context of the Indonesian Tsunami Warning System (INATEWS) at Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG) in Jakarta, Indonesia. The German contribution is well known as GITEWS. INATEWS is composed of several thousand integrated system components and numerous software processes. Due to the heterogeneity and complexity of the system, as well as the high availability needs, being an operational TEWS, real-time monitoring, reporting and scheduled preventive maintenance are needed. To develop and install an organizational and operational methodology for maintenance processes for INATEWS, we asserted ITIL® methods and are in development of Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) together with BMKG operational and management staff. ITIL®-conforming methods are one means of IT Service Management which has been adopted by a variety of service oriented IT providers. An early warning system does not expose classical consumer services, but the dissemination of warning messages and an early warning as a product may nevertheless be viewed as distinct services provided by a TEWS. We applied methods from ITIL® to the modular and hierarchical components of an early warning center, where minimum requirements on service availability, reliability and correctness of the warning product exist, from dissemination down to each sensor component. We describe functions of actors that ensure management of incidents and problems, as well as managing applications, IT operations and further technical issues. For the components of the early warning system, we present a model of event detection and event resolution. Real-time monitoring provides automated health-checks. Errors lead to reports to designated targets. Preventive maintenance provides findings on data and system availability, and data quality. Each

  15. The Project Monitoring and Early Warning System of Mould and Die

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Zongzhong; WANG Yi; CHEN Qingxin; MAO Ning

    2006-01-01

    The article simply describes the difficulties of the Mould and Die project control, and then put forward the thoughts of developing the Monitoring and Early Warning System for the Mould and Die manufacturing. Afterwards, the main three constructing principles and the goals of the system are explained carefully. Based on those, the theory and the classifications of the Monitoring and Early Warning are expounded. With the assistance of the use case diagram of UML (the United Modeling Language), the main functions of the system are analyzed; and with the activity diagram of the UML, the work flows of the monitoring and early warning are expressed clearly. Finally, the classes and the architectures of the system are designed by making use of the class diagram of UML.

  16. Nurse-administered early warning score system can be used for emergency department triage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Dorthea; Jensen, Nanna Martin; Maaløe, Rikke;

    2011-01-01

    Studies have shown that early warning score systems can identify in-patients at high risk of catastrophic deterioration and this may possibly be used for an emergency department (ED) triage. Bispebjerg Hospital has introduced a multidisciplinary team (MT) in the ED activated by the Bispebjerg Early...

  17. Experiences integrating autonomous components and legacy systems into tsunami early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reißland, S.; Herrnkind, S.; Guenther, M.; Babeyko, A.; Comoglu, M.; Hammitzsch, M.

    2012-04-01

    Fostered by and embedded in the general development of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) the evolution of Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS) shows a significant development from seismic-centred to multi-sensor system architectures using additional sensors, e.g. sea level stations for the detection of tsunami waves and GPS stations for the detection of ground displacements. Furthermore, the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources serving near real-time data not only includes sensors but also other components and systems offering services such as the delivery of feasible simulations used for forecasting in an imminent tsunami threat. In the context of the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination has been newly developed and demonstrated. In particular, standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS) have been successfully incorporated. In the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC) new developments are used to extend the existing platform to realise a component-based technology framework for building distributed TEWS. This talk will describe experiences made in GITEWS, DEWS and TRIDEC while integrating legacy stand-alone systems and newly developed special-purpose software components into TEWS using different software adapters and communication strategies to make the systems work together in a corporate infrastructure. The talk will also cover task management and data conversion between the different systems. Practical approaches and software solutions for the integration of sensors, e.g. providing seismic and sea level data, and utilisation of special

  18. Effect of an inpatient nursing risk early warning and control system in Shanghai: A retrospective study of adverse events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qian Wu

    2015-06-01

    Conclusion: The establishment of an inpatient early warning and control system could effectively avoid nursing risk, improve risk prevention abilities, improve patient safety, and improve nursing quality.

  19. Implementation of a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Augmentation to Tsunami Early Warning Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaBrecque, John

    2016-04-01

    The Global Geodetic Observing System has issued a Call for Participation to research scientists, geodetic research groups and national agencies in support of the implementation of the IUGG recommendation for a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Augmentation to Tsunami Early Warning Systems. The call seeks to establish a working group to be a catalyst and motivating force for the definition of requirements, identification of resources, and for the encouragement of international cooperation in the establishment, advancement, and utilization of GNSS for Tsunami Early Warning. During the past fifteen years the populations of the Indo-Pacific region experienced a series of mega-thrust earthquakes followed by devastating tsunamis that claimed nearly 300,000 lives. The future resiliency of the region will depend upon improvements to infrastructure and emergency response that will require very significant investments from the Indo-Pacific economies. The estimation of earthquake moment magnitude, source mechanism and the distribution of crustal deformation are critical to rapid tsunami warning. Geodetic research groups have demonstrated the use of GNSS data to estimate earthquake moment magnitude, source mechanism and the distribution of crustal deformation sufficient for the accurate and timely prediction of tsunamis generated by mega-thrust earthquakes. GNSS data have also been used to measure the formation and propagation of tsunamis via ionospheric disturbances acoustically coupled to the propagating surface waves; thereby providing a new technique to track tsunami propagation across ocean basins, opening the way for improving tsunami propagation models, and providing accurate warning to communities in the far field. These two new advancements can deliver timely and accurate tsunami warnings to coastal communities in the near and far field of mega-thrust earthquakes. This presentation will present the justification for and the details of the GGOS Call for

  20. Toward a cross-border early-warning system for Central Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacek Stankiewicz

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Rapidly expanding urban areas in Central Asia are increasingly vulnerable to seismic risk; but at present, no earthquake early warning (EEW systems exist in the region despite their successful implementation in other earthquake-prone areas. Such systems aim to provide short (seconds to tens of seconds warnings of impending disaster, enabling the first risk mitigation and damage control steps to be taken. This study presents the feasibility of a large scale cross-border regional system for Central Asian countries. Genetic algorithms are used to design efficient EEW networks, computing optimal station locations and trigger thresholds in recorded ground acceleration. Installation of such systems within 3 years aims to both reducing the endemic lack of strong motion data in Central Asia that is limiting the possibility of improving seismic hazard assessment, and at providing the first regional earthquake early warning system in the area.

  1. Dead Bird Clusters as an Early Warning System for West Nile Virus Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulldorff, Martin; Hartman, Jessica J.; Miller, James R.; Kulasekera, Varuni

    2003-01-01

    An early warning system for West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks could provide a basis for targeted public education and surveillance activities as well as more timely larval and adult mosquito control. We adapted the spatial scan statistic for prospective detection of infectious disease outbreaks, applied the results to data on dead birds reported from New York City in 2000, and reviewed its utility in providing an early warning of WNV activity in 2001. Prospective geographic cluster analysis of dead bird reports may provide early warning of increasing viral activity in birds and mosquitoes, allowing jurisdictions to triage limited mosquito-collection and laboratory resources and more effectively prevent human disease caused by the virus. This adaptation of the scan statistic could also be useful in other infectious disease surveillance systems, including that for bioterrorism. PMID:12781002

  2. Early warning indicators for monitoring the process failure of anaerobic digestion system of food waste.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lei; He, Qingming; Wei, Yunmei; He, Qin; Peng, Xuya

    2014-11-01

    To determine reliable state parameters which could be used as early warning indicators of process failure due to the acidification of anaerobic digestion of food waste, three mesophilic anaerobic digesters of food waste with different operation conditions were investigated. Such parameters as gas production, methane content, pH, concentrations of volatile fatty acid (VFA), alkalinity and their combined indicators were evaluated. Results revealed that operation conditions significantly affect the responses of parameters and thus the optimal early warning indicators of each reactor differ from each other. None of the single indicators was universally valid for all the systems. The universally valid indicators should combine several parameters to supply complementary information. A combination of total VFA, the ratio of VFA to total alkalinity (VFA/TA) and the ratio of bicarbonate alkalinity to total alkalinity (BA/TA) can reflect the metabolism of the digesting system and realize rapid and effective early warning.

  3. Constructing early warning information release system in towns enterprise clean production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuwen, Huixin; He, Xueqiu; Qian, Xinming; Yuan, Mengqi

    2017-08-01

    China’s industry boom has not only brought unprecedented prosperity, but also caused the gradual depletion of various resources and the worsening of the natural environment. Experts admit that China is facing serious environmental problem, but they believe that they can seek a new path to overcome it through joint efforts. Early warning information release and clean production are the important concepts in addressing the imminent crisis. Early warning information release system can monitor and forecast the risk that affects the clean production. The author drawn the experiences and lessons from developed countries, combined with China’s reality, put forward countermeasures and suggestions about constructing early warning information release system in process of Chinese town-scaled enterprises clean production.

  4. Learning by Teaching: Undergraduate Engineering Students Improving a Community's Response Capability to an Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suvannatsiri, Ratchasak; Santichaianant, Kitidech; Murphy, Elizabeth

    2015-01-01

    This paper reports on a project in which students designed, constructed and tested a model of an existing early warning system with simulation of debris flow in a context of a landslide. Students also assessed rural community members' knowledge of this system and subsequently taught them to estimate the time needed for evacuation of the community…

  5. A Practitioner's Guide to Implementing Early Warning Systems. REL 2015-056

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frazelle, Sarah; Nagel, Aisling

    2015-01-01

    To stem the tide of students dropping out, many schools and districts are turning to early warning systems (EWS) that signal whether a student is at risk of not graduating from high school. While some research exists about establishing these systems, there is little information about the actual implementation strategies that are being used across…

  6. An Early Warning and Monitoring System for Distributed Process Control Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bach, K.R.

    in order to minimize hazardous impact on the environment controlled by the system. Such failures may stem from degraded system performance originating from parts of the operating system or applications not functioning properly because of poor design or indirectly by malfunctioning hardware also degrading......This thesis describes an approach based on early warning and monitoring of system metrics and task deadlines in a distributed real-time system. The main reason for applying this, is the fact that while a system used for critical purposes can be checked formally pre-runtime for validity......, there are still only a few methods for comprehending a systems' state during runtime. Also, no system can be said to operate 100% correctly throughout its entire lifetime. This indicates that part of the system occasionally fails. In real-time systems, those failures should be detected as early as possible...

  7. An integrated methodology to develop a standard for landslide early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faisal Fathani, Teuku; Karnawati, Dwikorita; Wilopo, Wahyu

    2016-09-01

    Landslides are one of the most widespread and commonly occurring natural hazards. In regions of high vulnerability, these complex hazards can cause significant negative social and economic impacts. Considering the worldwide susceptibility to landslides, it is necessary to establish a standard for early warning systems specific to landslide disaster risk reduction. This standard would provide guidance in conducting landslide detection, prediction, interpretation, and response. This paper proposes a new standard consisting of seven sub-systems for landslide early warning. These include risk assessment and mapping, dissemination and communication, establishment of the disaster preparedness and response team, development of an evacuation map, standardized operating procedures, installation of monitoring and warning services, and the building of local commitment to the operation and maintenance of the entire program. This paper details the global standard with an example of its application from Central Java, one of 20 landslide-prone provinces in Indonesia that have used this standard since 2012.

  8. Initial application of the maximum likelihood earthquake location method to early warning system in South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheen, D. H.; Seong, Y. J.; Park, J. H.; Lim, I. S.

    2015-12-01

    From the early of this year, the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) began to operate the first stage of an earthquake early warning system (EEWS) and provide early warning information to the general public. The earthquake early warning system (EEWS) in the KMA is based on the Earthquake Alarm Systems version 2 (ElarmS-2), developed at the University of California Berkeley. This method estimates the earthquake location using a simple grid search algorithm that finds the location with the minimum variance of the origin time on successively finer grids. A robust maximum likelihood earthquake location (MAXEL) method for early warning, based on the equal differential times of P arrivals, was recently developed. The MAXEL has been demonstrated to be successful in determining the event location, even when an outlier is included in the small number of P arrivals. This presentation details the application of the MAXEL to the EEWS of the KMA, its performance evaluation over seismic networks in South Korea with synthetic data, and comparison of statistics of earthquake locations based on the ElarmS-2 and the MAXEL.

  9. An integrated earthquake early warning system and its performance at schools in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Bing-Ru; Hsiao, Nai-Chi; Lin, Pei-Yang; Hsu, Ting-Yu; Chen, Chiou-Yun; Huang, Shieh-Kung; Chiang, Hung-Wei

    2017-01-01

    An earthquake early warning (EEW) system with integration of regional and onsite approaches was installed at nine demonstration stations in several districts of Taiwan for taking advantages of both approaches. The system performance was evaluated by a 3-year experiment at schools, which experienced five major earthquakes during this period. The blind zone of warning was effectively reduced by the integrated EEW system. The predicted intensities from EEW demonstration stations showed acceptable accuracy compared to field observations. The operation experience from an earthquake event proved that students could calmly carry out correct action before the seismic wave arrived using some warning time provided by the EEW system. Through successful operation in practice, the integrated EEW system was verified as an effective tool for disaster prevention at schools.

  10. Forests and Phenology: Designing the Early Warning System to Understand Forest Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, T.; Phillips, M. B.; Hargrove, W. W.; Dobson, G.; Hicks, J.; Hutchins, M.; Lichtenstein, K.

    2010-12-01

    Vegetative phenology is the study of plant development and changes with the seasons, such as the greening-up and browning-down of forests, and how these events are influenced by variations in climate. A National Phenology Data Set, based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite images covering 2002 through 2009, is now available from work by NASA, the US Forest Service, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This new data set provides an easily interpretable product useful for detecting changes to the landscape due to long-term factors such as climate change, as well as finding areas affected by short-term forest threats such as insects or disease. The Early Warning System (EWS) is a toolset being developed by the US Forest Service and the University of North Carolina-Asheville to support distribution and use of the National Phenology Data Set. The Early Warning System will help research scientists, US Forest Service personnel, forest and natural resources managers, decision makers, and the public in the use of phenology data to better understand unexpected change within our nation’s forests. These changes could have multiple natural sources such as insects, disease, or storm damage, or may be due to human-induced events, like thinning, harvest, forest conversion to agriculture, or residential and commercial use. The primary goal of the Early Warning System is to provide a seamless integration between monitoring, detection, early warning and prediction of these forest disturbances as observed through phenological data. The system consists of PC and web-based components that are structured to support four user stages of increasing knowledge and data sophistication. Building Literacy: This stage of the Early Warning System educates potential users about the system, why the system should be used, and the fundamentals about the data the system uses. The channels for this education include a website, interactive tutorials, pamphlets, and other technology

  11. The UrbanFlood common information space for early warning systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Balis, B.; Kasztelnik, M.; Bubak, M.; Bartynski, T.; Gubala, T.; Nowakowski, P.; Broekhuijsen, B.J.

    2011-01-01

    Early Warning Systems (EWS) can play a crucial role in mitigating the effects of natural disasters. Modern EWSs leverage wireless sensors for real-time monitoring of natural phenomena and computing-intensive scientific applications for scenario-based prediction and analysis of sensor data. This pape

  12. Indicators of financial crises do work! : an early-warning system for six Asian countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lestano, [No Value; Jacobs, Jan; Kuper, Gerard H.

    2003-01-01

    Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system for six countries in Asia, in which indicators do work.We distinguish three types of financial crises, currency crises, banking crises and debt crises, and extract four groups of ind

  13. The UrbanFlood common information space for early warning systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Balis, B.; Kasztelnik, M.; Bubak, M.; Bartynski, T.; Gubala, T.; Nowakowski, P.; Broekhuijsen, B.J.

    2011-01-01

    Early Warning Systems (EWS) can play a crucial role in mitigating the effects of natural disasters. Modern EWSs leverage wireless sensors for real-time monitoring of natural phenomena and computing-intensive scientific applications for scenario-based prediction and analysis of sensor data. This

  14. Geospatiotemporal data mining in an early warning system for forest threats in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    F.M. Hoffman; R.T. Mills; J. Kumar; S.S. Vulli; W.W. Hargrove

    2010-01-01

    We investigate the potential of geospatiotemporal data mining of multi-year land surface phenology data (250 m Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) in this study) for the conterminous United States as part of an early warning system to identify threats to forest ecosystems. Cluster...

  15. Early Warning System for reducing disaster risk: the technological platform DEWETRA for the Republic of Serbia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massabo, Marco; Molini, Luca; Kostic, Bojan; Campanella, Paolo; Stevanovic, Slavimir

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk reduction has long been recognized for its role in mitigating the negative environmental, social and economic impacts of natural hazards. Flood Early Warning System is a disaster risk reduction measure based on the capacities of institutions to observe and predict extreme hydro-meteorological events and to disseminate timely and meaningful warning information; it is furthermore based on the capacities of individuals, communities and organizations to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss. An operational definition of an Early Warning System has been suggested by ISDR - UN Office for DRR [15 January 2009]: "EWS is the set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities and organizations threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss.". ISDR continues by commenting that a people-centered early warning system necessarily comprises four key elements: 1-knowledge of the risks; 2-monitoring, analysis and forecasting of the hazards; 3-communication or dissemination of alerts and warnings; and 4- local capabilities to respond to the warnings received." The technological platform DEWETRA supports the strengthening of the first three key elements of EWS suggested by ISDR definition, hence to improve the capacities to build real-time risk scenarios and to inform and warn the population in advance The technological platform DEWETRA has been implemented for the Republic of Serbia. DEWETRA is a real time-integrate system that supports decision makers for risk forecasting and monitoring and for distributing warnings to end-user and to the general public. The system is based on the rapid availability of different data that helps to establish up-to-date and reliable risk scenarios. The integration of all relevant data for risk management significantly

  16. Community-based early warning systems for flood risk mitigation in Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Paul J.; Brown, Sarah; Dugar, Sumit

    2017-03-01

    This paper focuses on the use of community-based early warning systems for flood resilience in Nepal. The first part of the work outlines the evolution and current status of these community-based systems, highlighting the limited lead times currently available for early warning. The second part of the paper focuses on the development of a robust operational flood forecasting methodology for use by the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) to enhance early warning lead times. The methodology uses data-based physically interpretable time series models and data assimilation to generate probabilistic forecasts, which are presented in a simple visual tool. The approach is designed to work in situations of limited data availability with an emphasis on sustainability and appropriate technology. The successful application of the forecast methodology to the flood-prone Karnali River basin in western Nepal is outlined, increasing lead times from 2-3 to 7-8 h. The challenges faced in communicating probabilistic forecasts to the last mile of the existing community-based early warning systems across Nepal is discussed. The paper concludes with an assessment of the applicability of this approach in basins and countries beyond Karnali and Nepal and an overview of key lessons learnt from this initiative.

  17. Assessment of early warning system performance and improvements since it is in operational phase in Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ionescu, Constantin; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Ortansa Cioflan, Carmen

    2017-04-01

    Earthquake represents a major natural disaster for Romanian territory. The main goal following the occurrence of a strong earthquake is to minimize the total number of fatalities. A rapid early warning system (REWS) was developed in Romania in order to provide 25-35 seconds warning time to Bucharest facilities for the earthquakes with M>5.0. The system consists of four components: a network of strong motion sensors installed in the epicentral area, a redundant communication network, an automatic analyzing system located in the Romanian Data Centre and an alert distribution system. The detection algorithm is based on the magnitude computation using strong motion data and rapid evaluation and scaling relation between the maximum P-wave acceleration measured in the epicentral area and the higher ground motion amplitude recorded in Bucharest. In order to reduce the damages caused by earthquakes, the exploitation of the up to date technology is very important. The information is the key point in the disaster management, and the internet is one of the most used instrument, implying also low costs. The Rapid Early Warning System was expanded to cover all countries affected by major earthquakes originating in the Vrancea seismic area and reduce their impact on existing installations of national interest in neighbouring Romania and elsewhere. REWS provides an efficient instrument for prevention and reaction based on the integrated system for seismic detection in South-Eastern Europe. REWS has been operational since 2013 and sends alert the authorities, hazardous facilities in Romania and Bulgaria (NPP, emergency response agencies etc.) and to public via twitter and some smartphone applications developed in the house. Also, NIEP is part of the UNESCO initiative case on developing a platform on earthquake early warning systems (IP-MEP) that aims to promote and strengthen the development of earthquake early warning systems in earthquake-prone regions of the world by sharing

  18. Design of a reliable and operational landslide early warning system at regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvello, Michele; Piciullo, Luca; Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Melillo, Massimo; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Peruccacci, Silvia; Guzzetti, Fausto

    2017-04-01

    Landslide early warning systems at regional scale are used to warn authorities, civil protection personnel and the population about the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides over wide areas, typically through the prediction and measurement of meteorological variables. A warning model for these systems must include a regional correlation law and a decision algorithm. A regional correlation law can be defined as a functional relationship between rainfall and landslides; it is typically based on thresholds of rainfall indicators (e.g., cumulated rainfall, rainfall duration) related to different exceedance probabilities of landslide occurrence. A decision algorithm can be defined as a set of assumptions and procedures linking rainfall thresholds to warning levels. The design and the employment of an operational and reliable early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides at regional scale depend on the identification of a reliable correlation law as well as on the definition of a suitable decision algorithm. Herein, a five-step process chain addressing both issues and based on rainfall thresholds is proposed; the procedure is tested in a landslide-prone area of the Campania region in southern Italy. To this purpose, a database of 96 shallow landslides triggered by rainfall in the period 2003-2010 and rainfall data gathered from 58 rain gauges are used. First, a set of rainfall thresholds are defined applying a frequentist method to reconstructed rainfall conditions triggering landslides in the test area. In the second step, several thresholds at different exceedance probabilities are evaluated, and different percentile combinations are selected for the activation of three warning levels. Subsequently, within steps three and four, the issuing of warning levels is based on the comparison, over time and for each combination, between the measured rainfall and the pre-defined warning level thresholds. Finally, the optimal percentile combination to be employed in

  19. Performance analysis of landslide early warning systems at regional scale: the EDuMaP method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piciullo, Luca; Calvello, Michele

    2016-04-01

    Landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) reduce landslide risk by disseminating timely and meaningful warnings when the level of risk is judged intolerably high. Two categories of LEWSs, can be defined on the basis of their scale of analysis: "local" systems and "regional" systems. LEWSs at regional scale (ReLEWSs) are used to assess the probability of occurrence of landslides over appropriately-defined homogeneous warning zones of relevant extension, typically through the prediction and monitoring of meteorological variables, in order to give generalized warnings to the public. Despite many studies on ReLEWSs, no standard requirements exist for assessing their performance. Empirical evaluations are often carried out by simply analysing the time frames during which significant high-consequence landslides occurred in the test area. Alternatively, the performance evaluation is based on 2x2 contingency tables computed for the joint frequency distribution of landslides and alerts, both considered as dichotomous variables. In all these cases, model performance is assessed neglecting some important aspects which are peculiar to ReLEWSs, among which: the possible occurrence of multiple landslides in the warning zone; the duration of the warnings in relation to the time of occurrence of the landslides; the level of the warning issued in relation to the landslide spatial density in the warning zone; the relative importance system managers attribute to different types of errors. An original approach, called EDuMaP method, is proposed to assess the performance of landslide early warning models operating at regional scale. The method is composed by three main phases: Events analysis, Duration Matrix, Performance analysis. The events analysis phase focuses on the definition of landslide (LEs) and warning events (WEs), which are derived from available landslides and warnings databases according to their spatial and temporal characteristics by means of ten input parameters. The

  20. An Envelope Based Feedback Control System for Earthquake Early Warning: Reality Check Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heaton, T. H.; Karakus, G.; Beck, J. L.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquake early warning systems are, in general, designed to be open loop control systems in such a way that the output, i.e., the warning messages, only depend on the input, i.e., recorded ground motions, up to the moment when the message is issued in real-time. We propose an algorithm, which is called Reality Check Algorithm (RCA), which would assess the accuracy of issued warning messages, and then feed the outcome of the assessment back into the system. Then, the system would modify its messages if necessary. That is, we are proposing to convert earthquake early warning systems into feedback control systems by integrating them with RCA. RCA works by continuously monitoring and comparing the observed ground motions' envelopes to the predicted envelopes of Virtual Seismologist (Cua 2005). Accuracy of magnitude and location (both spatial and temporal) estimations of the system are assessed separately by probabilistic classification models, which are trained by a Sparse Bayesian Learning technique called Automatic Relevance Determination prior.

  1. Evaluation of Golestan Province's Early Warning System for flash floods, Iran, 2006-7.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ardalan, Ali; Holakouie Naieni, Kourosh; Kabir, Mohamad-Javad; Zanganeh, Ali-Mohamad; Keshtkar, Abbas-Ali; Honarvar, Mohamad-Reza; Khodaie, Hanieh; Osooli, Mehdi

    2009-05-01

    Golestan province located in NE Iran is well known for deadly flash floods. This study aimed to evaluate the region's Early Warning System (EWS) for flash floods. We used an adapted version of the questionnaire developed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. We reviewed documents on the EWS of Golestan, and conducted a qualitative study comprising interviews with experts and affected people in Kalaleh and Minoodasht. Results were discussed by an expert panel. Regarding risk knowledge, there was a hazard map at Provincial Disaster Taskforce (PDT) drawn by the provincial Office for Water Resource Management, but no risk analysis was available. Local people were aware of their exposure to flooding, but not aware of the existence of a hazard map and their vulnerability situation. In terms of monitoring and warning, PDT faced serious limitations in issuing Early Warnings, including (1) an inability to make point predictions of rainfall, and (2) the absence of a warning threshold. Dissemination and communication issued by the Meteorological Office followed a top-to-bottom direction. The contents were neither clearly understood by other institutions nor reached the potential recipients within an appropriate time frame. There was a need for a comprehensive response plan with adequate exercises, and no evaluation framework existed. Golestan EWS is in dire need of improvement. To fill in the gaps ensuring local people receive timely warning, we propose a community-based model called "Village Disaster Taskforce" (VDT) in which individual villages act as operational units, but interlinked with other villages and PDT.

  2. Food Security, Decision Making and the Use of Remote Sensing in Famine Early Warning Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.

    2008-01-01

    Famine early warning systems use remote sensing in combination with socio-economic and household food economy analysis to provide timely and rigorous information on emerging food security crises. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is the US Agency for International Development's decision support system in 20 African countries, as well as in Guatemala, Haiti and Afghanistan. FEWS NET provides early and actionable policy guidance for the US Government and its humanitarian aid partners. As we move into an era of climate change where weather hazards will become more frequent and severe, understanding how to provide quantitative and actionable scientific information for policy makers using biophysical data is critical for an appropriate and effective response.

  3. Performance Analysis of a Citywide Real-time Landslide Early Warning System in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Joon-Young; Lee, Seung-Rae; Kang, Sinhang; Lee, Deuk-hwan; Nedumpallile Vasu, Nikhil

    2017-04-01

    Rainfall-induced landslide has been one of the major disasters in Korea since the beginning of 21st century when the global climate change started to give rise to the growth of the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events. In order to mitigate the increasing damage to properties and loss of lives and to provide an effective tool for public officials to manage the landslide disasters, a real-time landslide early warning system with an advanced concept has been developed by taking into account for Busan, the second largest metropolitan city in Korea, as an operational test-bed. The system provides with warning information based on a five-level alert scheme (Normal, Attention, Watch, Alert, and Emergency) using the forecasted/observed rainfall data or the data obtained from ground monitoring (volumetric water content and matric suction). The alert levels are determined by applying seven different thresholds in a step-wise manner following a decision tree. In the pursuit of improved reliability of an early warning level assigned to a specific area, the system makes assessments repetitively using the thresholds of different theoretical backgrounds including statistical(empirical), physically-based, and mathematical analyses as well as direct measurement-based approaches. By mapping the distribution of the five early warning levels determined independently for each of tens of millions grids covering the entire mountainous area of Busan, the regional-scale system can also provide with the early warning information for a specific local area. The fact that the highest warning level is determined by using a concept of a numerically-modelled potential debris-flow risk is another distinctive feature of the system. This study tested the system performance by applying it for four previous rainy seasons in order to validate the operational applicability. During the rainy seasons of 2009, 2011, and 2014, the number of landslides recorded throughout Busan's territory

  4. Availability and Reliability of Disaster Early Warning Systems and the IT Infrastructure Library

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wächter, J.; Loewe, P.

    2012-12-01

    The Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 caused an information catastrophy. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages. A key challenge stems from the main objective of the IOC Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from sensors to Warning Centers, has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. This task is complicated by the fact that in term of ICT system life cycles tsunami are very rare event resulting in very difficult framing conditions to safeguard the availability and reliability of TWS. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CEGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already: The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a European project funded under the sixth Framework Programme (FP6). These developments are continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical

  5. Conceptual Model for Automatic Early Warning Information System of Infectious Diseases Based on Internet Reporting Surveillance System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIA-QI MA; LI-PING WANG; XUAO-PENG QI; XIAO-MING SHI; GONG-HUAN YANG

    2007-01-01

    Objective To establish a conceptual model of automatic early warning of infectious diseases based on internet reporting surveillance system,with a view to realizing an automated warning system on a daily basis and timely identifying potential outbreaks of infectious diseases. Methods The statistic conceptual model was established using historic surveillance data with movable percentile method.Results Based on the infectious disease surveillance information platform,the conceptualmodelfor early warning was established.The parameter,threshold,and revised sensitivity and specificity of early warning value were changed to realize dynamic alert of infectious diseases on a daily basis.Conclusion The instructive conceptual model of dynamic alert can be used as a validating tool in institutions of infectious disease surveillance in different districts.

  6. Role of MODIS Vegetation Phenology Products in the U.S. for Warn Early Warning System for Forest Threats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruce, Joseph; Hargrove, William; Norman, Steve; Gasser, Gerald; Smoot, James; Kuper, Philip

    2012-01-01

    U.S. forests occupy approx 751 million acres (approx 1/3 of total land). Several abiotic and biotic damage agents disturb, damage, kill, and/or threaten these forests. Regionally extensive forest disturbances can also threaten human life and property, bio-diversity and water supplies. timely regional forest disturbance monitoring products are needed to aid forest health management work at finer scales. daily MODIS data provide a means to monitor regional forest disturbances on a weekly basis, leveraging vegetation phenology. In response, the USFS and NASA began collaborating in 2006 to develop a Near Real Time (NRT) forest monitoring capability, based on MODIS NDVI data, as part of a national forest threat Early Warning System (EWS).

  7. DISTANT EARLY WARNING SYSTEM for Tsunamis - A wide-area and multi-hazard approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammitzsch, Martin; Lendholt, Matthias; Wächter, Joachim

    2010-05-01

    The DEWS (Distant Early Warning System) [1] project, funded under the 6th Framework Programme of the European Union, has the objective to create a new generation of interoperable early warning systems based on an open sensor platform. This platform integrates OGC [2] SWE [3] compliant sensor systems for the rapid detection of hazardous events, like earthquakes, sea level anomalies, ocean floor occurrences, and ground displacements in the case of tsunami early warning. Based on the upstream information flow DEWS focuses on the improvement of downstream capacities of warning centres especially by improving information logistics for effective and targeted warning message aggregation for a multilingual environment. Multiple telecommunication channels will be used for the dissemination of warning messages. Wherever possible, existing standards have been integrated. The Command and Control User Interface (CCUI), a rich client application based on Eclipse RCP (Rich Client Platform) [4] and the open source GIS uDig [5], integrates various OGC services. Using WMS (Web Map Service) [6] and WFS (Web Feature Service) [7] spatial data are utilized to depict the situation picture and to integrate a simulation system via WPS (Web Processing Service) [8] to identify affected areas. Warning messages are compiled and transmitted in the OASIS [9] CAP (Common Alerting Protocol) [10] standard together with addressing information defined via EDXL-DE (Emergency Data Exchange Language - Distribution Element) [11]. Internal interfaces are realized with SOAP [12] web services. Based on results of GITEWS [13] - in particular the GITEWS Tsunami Service Bus [14] - the DEWS approach provides an implementation for tsunami early warning systems but other geological paradigms are going to follow, e.g. volcanic eruptions or landslides. Therefore in future also multi-hazard functionality is conceivable. The specific software architecture of DEWS makes it possible to dock varying sensors to the

  8. Building an Enhanced Drought Early Warning System (DEWS): Tools and Services for Decision Support

    OpenAIRE

    Svoboda, Mark

    2011-01-01

    Perhaps no other hazard lends itself as well to the need for a diligent early warning system (DEWS) than drought. Droughts typically evolve slowly, but have the potential to cover very large areas compared to hazards like hurricanes, tornadoes and floods, which have a much smaller geographic footprint. The U.S. took first steps in 2006 toward developing coordinated and integrated DEWS through the creation of the National Integrated Drought Information System, or NIDIS. More recently, the Nati...

  9. A Near Real-time Early Warning System on Erosion Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faisal H. Ali

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available With many incidences of landslides, mudslides and erosion occurrences lately, especially in the highlands in Malaysia, properties were damaged and lives were lost. Seeing the need of resolving and minimizing such untoward incidences, a study has been embarked on developing a near real-time early warning system on erosion hazards so as to provide an early warning to the public, whenever there are signs and probable occurrence of such incidences. Consequently, a case study on Cameron Highlands Catchment was carried out, which involved a detailed baseline database of the study area to be set up first. The highland catchment is considered an environmentally sensitive area where many land development for various activities such as agriculture, agro-tourism, property development and road-widening projects, had already been carried out and some are still on going as to-date. To develop the baseline database, acquisition of the latest Structure Plan, Satellite Imagery, topographical and rainfall information of the catchment area were carried out. Once this is done, real-time rainfall information would be adopted to develop the early warning system. This could be done by using solar-powered rain sensors, which would be triggered based on the rainfall amount and intensity. A SIM-card based GPRS transmitter, which is attached to the “rain sensing and transmission unit” would then send out e-mails at every minute interval, so that the data could be transferred to a receiving unit. At this point, the e-mail is read and data is processed within the Geographical Information Systems (GIS using an automated keyboard simulation programme. The final processed values would then be set against the threshold values, which will trigger an early warning if any of the values exceeds the threshold limits. Therefore, it is hoped that the application of this new locally developed system, which has been trademarked under the name EWARNSTM (Early Warning And Risk

  10. Early warning scores: a sign of deterioration in patients and systems

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Fox, A

    2015-02-01

    The early warning score is a decision-making tool that has a simple design, yet its implementation in healthcare organisations is proving complex. This article reports the results of a survey that evaluated the nurses’ experiences of using the NEWS (National Early Warning Score) in an acute hospital in Ireland. Staff reported that the NEWS was easy to use, did not increase workload and enhanced their ability to identify deteriorating patients. However, they also identified problems related to doctors’ delayed response times, doctors lack of training in the use of the tool, and a failure by doctors to modify parameters for patients with chronic conditions. NEWS enhances nurses’ role in early detection of patient deterioration but delays in response times by doctors, exposes systematic flaws in healthcare. This suggests that it is not only an indicator of patient deterioration but also of deteriorating healthcare systems.

  11. Research on Heterogeneous Data Sharing in Early Warning System for Grain Security

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GUO Heng-chuan; ZHAO Guo-zeng

    2010-01-01

    The data nodes with heterogeneous database in early waming system for grain security seriously hampered the effective data collection in this system.In this article,the existing middleware technologies was analyzed,the problem-solution approach of heterogeneous data sharing was discussed through middleware technologies.Based on this method,and according to the characteristics of early warning system for grain security,the technology of data sharing in this system were researched and explored to solve the issues of collection of heterogeneous data sharing.

  12. OVERVIEW OF THE CAAMPL EARLY WARNING SYSTEM IN ROMANIAN BANKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    IMOLA DRIGĂ

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The uniform bank rating system is a specific instrument for the supervising activity and has its origins in the USA; it has later been borrowed by German, Italian, Great Britain authorities, which use influential components in their banking system; later on, their system was adopted by most central banks within the European Union. In Romania, the uniform bank rating system has been implemented by NBR (the National Bank of Romania since 2000; the specific components are: the capital adequacy (C, the quality of assets (A, the quality of the stock holding (A, the management (M, profitability (P, liquidities (L and sensitivity (S starting from the year 2005. For short, this system is called CAAMPL. The evaluation of these specific elements represents an important criterion for establishing a compound rating, which means assigning scores to each bank. The compound rating for the banking system is established based on economic – financial indicators and prudence indicators.

  13. Risk-based modeling of early warning systems for pollution accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grayman, W M; Males, R M

    2002-01-01

    An early warning system is a mechanism for detecting, characterizing and providing notification of a source water contamination event (spill event) in order to mitigate the impact of contamination. Spill events are highly probabilistic occurrences with major spills, which can have very significant impacts on raw water sources of drinking water, being relatively rare. A systematic method for designing and operating early warning systems that considers the highly variable, probabilistic nature of many aspects of the system is described. The methodology accounts for the probability of spills, behavior of monitoring equipment, variable hydrology, and the probability of obtaining information about spills independent of a monitoring system. Spill Risk, a risk-based model using Monte Carlo simulation techniques has been developed and its utility has been demonstrated as part of an AWWA Research Foundation sponsored project. The model has been applied to several hypothetical river situations and to an actual section of the Ohio River. Additionally, the model has been systematically applied to a wide range of conditions in order to develop general guidance on design of early warning systems.

  14. Development of Smart Grid for Community and Cyber based Landslide Hazard Monitoring and Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnawati, D.; Wilopo, W.; Fathani, T. F.; Fukuoka, H.; Andayani, B.

    2012-12-01

    A Smart Grid is a cyber-based tool to facilitate a network of sensors for monitoring and communicating the landslide hazard and providing the early warning. The sensor is designed as an electronic sensor installed in the existing monitoring and early warning instruments, and also as the human sensors which comprise selected committed-people at the local community, such as the local surveyor, local observer, member of the local task force for disaster risk reduction, and any person at the local community who has been registered to dedicate their commitments for sending reports related to the landslide symptoms observed at their living environment. This tool is designed to be capable to receive up to thousands of reports/information at the same time through the electronic sensors, text message (mobile phone), the on-line participatory web as well as various social media such as Twitter and Face book. The information that should be recorded/ reported by the sensors is related to the parameters of landslide symptoms, for example the progress of cracks occurrence, ground subsidence or ground deformation. Within 10 minutes, this tool will be able to automatically elaborate and analyse the reported symptoms to predict the landslide hazard and risk levels. The predicted level of hazard/ risk can be sent back to the network of electronic and human sensors as the early warning information. The key parameters indicating the symptoms of landslide hazard were recorded/ monitored by the electrical and the human sensors. Those parameters were identified based on the investigation on geological and geotechnical conditions, supported with the laboratory analysis. The cause and triggering mechanism of landslide in the study area was also analysed in order to define the critical condition to launch the early warning. However, not only the technical but also social system were developed to raise community awareness and commitments to serve the mission as the human sensors, which will

  15. Dynamic Data Driven Operator Error Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-13

    integrating data from skin conductance and heart rate to monitor emotion and behavior for clinical use. Cognitive Behavioral Therapy could be given...system. Journal of Cognitive Engineering and Decision Making, page 1555343412441001, 2012. [10] Paul Ekman , Robert W. Levenson, and Wallace V. Friesen...Autonomic Nervous System Activity Distinguishes among Emotions . Science, 221(4616):1208–1210, 1983. [11] Richard Ribón Fletcher, Sharon Tam, Olufemi

  16. Famine Early Warning Systems and Their Use of Satellite Remote Sensing Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.; Essam, Timothy; Leonard, Kenneth

    2011-01-01

    Famine early warning organizations have experience that has much to contribute to efforts to incorporate climate and weather information into economic and political systems. Food security crises are now caused almost exclusively by problems of food access, not absolute food availability, but the role of monitoring agricultural production both locally and globally remains central. The price of food important to the understanding of food security in any region, but it needs to be understood in the context of local production. Thus remote sensing is still at the center of much food security analysis, along with an examination of markets, trade and economic policies during food security analyses. Technology including satellite remote sensing, earth science models, databases of food production and yield, and modem telecommunication systems contributed to improved food production information. Here we present an econometric approach focused on bringing together satellite remote sensing and market analysis into food security assessment in the context of early warning.

  17. Dinitrogen oxide detection for process failure early warning systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgess, J E; Stuetz, R M; Morton, S; Stephenson, T

    2002-01-01

    A number of experiments were conducted in order to establish whether the concentration of N2O in the off-gas from an activated sludge pilot plant could be used as a indicator for monitoring the nitrification process and as an early indication of ammonia appearing in the plant effluent. A strong correlation was found between ammonia shock loads and the concentration of N20 in the off-gas from the aeration tank for ammonia shock loads and dissolved oxygen depletion. When subjecting the experimental setup to doses of a nitrification inhibitor (allylthiourea) a similar pattern was seen with a correlation between nitrite build up in the aeration tank and concentration increase of N2O in the off-gas from the aeration tank. The results from this work suggest the concentration and the changes in the concentration of N2O in the exhaust gas from a nitrifying process may be a useful parameter for monitoring nitrifying activated sludge processes.

  18. [Computerised sepsis protocol management. Description of an early warning system].

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Dios, Begoña; Borges, Marcio; Smith, Timothy D; Del Castillo, Alberto; Socias, Antonia; Gutiérrez, Leticia; Nicolás, Jordi; Lladó, Bartolomé; Roche, Jose A; Díaz, Maria P; Lladó, Yolanda

    2017-01-10

    New strategies need to be developed for the early recognition and rapid response for the management of sepsis. To achieve this purpose, the Multidisciplinary Sepsis Team (MST) developed the Computerised Sepsis Protocol Management (PIMIS). The aim of this study was to evaluate the convenience of using PIMIS, as well as the activity of the MST. An analysis was performed on the data collected from solicited MST consultations (direct activation of PIMIS by attending physician or telephone request) and unsolicited ones (by referral from the microbiology laboratory or an automatic referral via the hospital vital signs recording software [SIDCV]), as well as the hospital department, source of infection, treatment recommendation, and acceptance of this. Of the 1,581 first consultations, 65.1% were solicited consultations (84.1% activation of PIMIS and 15.9% by telephone). The majority of unsolicited consultations were generated by the microbiology laboratory (95.2%), and 4.8% from the SIDCV. Referral from solicited consultations were generated sooner (5.63days vs 8.47days; Pclinical specialties rather than from the surgical ward (73.0% vs 39.1%; P<.001). A recommendation was made for antimicrobial prescription change in 32% of first consultations. The treating physician accepted 78.1% of recommendations. The high rate of solicited consultations and acceptance of recommended prescription changes suggest that a MST is seen as a helpful resource, and that PIMIS software is perceived to be useful and convenient to use, as it is the main source of referral. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

  19. Global Drought Services: Collaborations Toward an Information System for Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, M. J.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Svoboda, M.

    2014-12-01

    Drought is a hazard that lends itself well to diligent, sustained monitoring and early warning. However, unlike most hazards, the fact that droughts typically evolve slowly, can last for months or years and cover vast areas spanning multiple political boundaries/jurisdictions and economic sectors can make it a daunting task to monitor, develop plans for, and identify appropriate, proactive mitigation strategies. The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) and National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) have been working together to reduce societal vulnerability to drought by helping decision makers at all levels to: 1) implement drought early warning/forecasting and decision support systems; 2) support and advocate for better collection of, and understanding of drought impacts; and 3) increase long-term resilience to drought through proactive planning. The NDMC and NIDIS risk management approach has been the basis from which many partners around the world are developing a collaboration and coordination nexus with an ultimate goal of building comprehensive global drought early warning information systems (GDEWIS). The core emphasis of this model is on developing and applying useful and usable information that can be integrated and transferred freely to other regions around the globe. The High-Level Ministerial Declaration on Drought, the Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) co-led by the WMO and the Global Water Partnership (GWP), and the Global Framework for Climate Services are drawing extensively from the integrated NDMC-NIDIS risk management framework. This presentation will describe, in detail, the various drought resources, tools, services, and collaborations already being provided and undertaken at the national and regional scales by the NDMC, NIDIS, and their partners. The presentation will be forward-looking, identifying improvements in existing and proposed mechanisms to help strengthen national and international drought early

  20. An online operational rainfall-monitoring resource for epidemic malaria early warning systems in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grover-Kopec, Emily; Kawano, Mika; Klaver, Robert W.; Blumenthal, Benno; Ceccato, Pietro; Connor, Stephen J.

    2005-01-01

    Periodic epidemics of malaria are a major public health problem for many sub-Saharan African countries. Populations in epidemic prone areas have a poorly developed immunity to malaria and the disease remains life threatening to all age groups. The impact of epidemics could be minimized by prediction and improved prevention through timely vector control and deployment of appropriate drugs. Malaria Early Warning Systems are advocated as a means of improving the opportunity for preparedness and timely response.

  1. Open Geospatial Consortium standards supporting Lake Maggiore Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannata, Massimiliano; Antonovic, Milan; Molinari, Monia; Pozzoni, Maurizio

    2013-04-01

    The Locarno area (Canton Ticino, Switzerland) is an area exposed to lake Maggiore flooding risk. In order to reduce the effects of such a kind of events, the Canton Ticino [1] and the Locarno and Vallemaggia Civil Protection [2] provide mandates to the Institute of Earth sciences of Southern Switzerland University of Applied Sciences (IST-SUPSI) [3] to supply a system for supporting the management, alerting and intervention in the area. The system, that was originally created about 15 year ago, includes: 1. the management of the regional hydro-meteorological monitoring network, 2. the Lake Maggiore basins hydrological modelling, 3. the management of geoinformation that includes exposed and contextual elements and, 4. the provision of a Web platform for access and interact with the information. In the last years, the IST-SUPSI has undertaken a process of renewal of the entire system following the concept of interoperability as identified in recently conducted European projects like SANY [4] or TRIDEC [5]. This mainstream leads us to adopt different open standards and to develop ad-hoc software. At the present time, the renewal process is almost finished: the Web interface is the only component currently under upgrade. As a result today the IST-SUPSI offers: - a Sensor Observation Service (SOS) for the monitoring data and has developed his own SOS implementation (istSOS [6]) capable to satisfy all the requirements identified in over 20 year of hydro-meteorological data management; - Web Processing Services (WPS) for the elaboration of raw monitoring data (from the SOS) and meteorological forecasts to feed the hydrological model with costumized and real-time inputs; - Web Mapping Service (WMS) and Web Feature Service (WFS) for the visualization of exposed elements and base maps; - a RESTFul Web Services for the provision of all the civil protection information management and elaboration of specific requests; - a security system for authentication and authorization

  2. PRESSCA: A regional operative Early Warning System for landslides risk scenario assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponziani, Francesco; Stelluti, Marco; Berni, Nicola; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso

    2013-04-01

    The Italian national alert system for the hydraulic and hydrogeological risk is ensured by the National Civil Protection Department, through the "Functional Centres" Network, together with scientific/technical Support Centres, named "Competence Centres". The role of the Functional Centres is to alert regional/national civil protection network, to manage the prediction and the monitoring phases, thus ensuring the flow of data for the management of the emergency. The Umbria regional alerting procedure is based on three increasing warning levels of criticality for 6 sub-areas (~1200 km²). Specifically, for each duration (from 1 to 48 hours), three criticality levels are assigned to the rainfall values corresponding to a recurrence interval of 2, 5, and 10 years. In order to improve confidence on the daily work for hydrogeological risk assessment and management, a simple and operational early warning system for the prediction of shallow landslide triggering on regional scale was implemented. The system is primarily based on rainfall thresholds, which represent the main element of evaluation for the early-warning procedures of the Italian Civil Protection system. Following previous studies highlighting that soil moisture conditions play a key role on landslide triggering, a continuous physically-based soil water balance model was implemented for the estimation of soil moisture conditions over the whole regional territory. In fact, a decreasing trend between the cumulated rainfall values over 24, 36 and 48 hours and the soil moisture conditions prior to past landslide events was observed. This trend provides an easy-to-use tool to dynamically adjust the operational rainfall thresholds with the soil moisture conditions simulated by the soil water balance model prior to rainfall events. The application of this procedure allowed decreasing the uncertainties tied to the application of the rainfall thresholds only. The system is actually operational in real-time and it was

  3. An online operational rainfall-monitoring resource for epidemic malaria early warning systems in Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ceccato Pietro

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Periodic epidemics of malaria are a major public health problem for many sub-Saharan African countries. Populations in epidemic prone areas have a poorly developed immunity to malaria and the disease remains life threatening to all age groups. The impact of epidemics could be minimized by prediction and improved prevention through timely vector control and deployment of appropriate drugs. Malaria Early Warning Systems are advocated as a means of improving the opportunity for preparedness and timely response. Rainfall is one of the major factors triggering epidemics in warm semi-arid and desert-fringe areas. Explosive epidemics often occur in these regions after excessive rains and, where these follow periods of drought and poor food security, can be especially severe. Consequently, rainfall monitoring forms one of the essential elements for the development of integrated Malaria Early Warning Systems for sub-Saharan Africa, as outlined by the World Health Organization. The Roll Back Malaria Technical Resource Network on Prevention and Control of Epidemics recommended that a simple indicator of changes in epidemic risk in regions of marginal transmission, consisting primarily of rainfall anomaly maps, could provide immediate benefit to early warning efforts. In response to these recommendations, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network produced maps that combine information about dekadal rainfall anomalies, and epidemic malaria risk, available via their Africa Data Dissemination Service. These maps were later made available in a format that is directly compatible with HealthMapper, the mapping and surveillance software developed by the WHO's Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response Department. A new monitoring interface has recently been developed at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI that enables the user to gain a more contextual perspective of the current rainfall estimates by comparing them to

  4. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio As; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

    2016-02-24

    Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics.

  5. Main components and characteristics of landslide early warning systems operational worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piciullo, Luca; Cepeda, José

    2017-04-01

    During the last decades the number of victims and economic losses due to natural hazards are dramatically increased worldwide. The reason can be mainly ascribed to climate changes and urbanization in areas exposed at high level of risk. Among the many mitigation measures available for reducing the risk to life related to natural hazards, early warning systems certainly constitute a significant cost-effective option available to the authorities in charge of risk management and governance. The aim is to help and protect populations exposed to natural hazards, reducing fatalities when major events occur. Landslide is one of the natural hazards addressed by early warning systems. Landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) are mainly composed by the following four components: set-up, correlation laws, decisional algorithm and warning management. Within this framework, the set-up includes all the preliminary actions and choices necessary for designing a LEWS, such as: the area covered by the system, the types of landslides and the monitoring instruments. The monitoring phase provides a series of important information on different variables, considered as triggering factors for landslides, in order to define correlation laws and thresholds. Then, a decisional algorithm is necessary for defining the: number of warning levels to be employed in the system, decision making procedures, and everything else system managers may need for issuing warnings in different warning zones. Finally the warning management is composed by: monitoring and warning strategy; communication strategy; emergency plan and, everything connected to the social sphere. Among LEWSs operational worldwide, two categories can be defined as a function of the scale of analysis: "local" and "territorial" systems. The scale of analysis influences several actions and aspects connected to the design and employment of the system, such as: the actors involved, the monitoring systems, type of landslide phenomena

  6. Near real-time GPS applications for tsunami early warning systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Falck

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available GPS (Global Positioning System technology is widely used for positioning applications. Many of them have high requirements with respect to precision, reliability or fast product delivery, but usually not all at the same time as it is the case for early warning applications. The tasks for the GPS-based components within the GITEWS project (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System, Rudloff et al., 2009 are to support the determination of sea levels (measured onshore and offshore and to detect co-seismic land mass displacements with the lowest possible latency (design goal: first reliable results after 5 min. The completed system was designed to fulfil these tasks in near real-time, rather than for scientific research requirements. The obtained data products (movements of GPS antennas are supporting the warning process in different ways. The measurements from GPS instruments on buoys allow the earliest possible detection or confirmation of tsunami waves on the ocean. Onshore GPS measurements are made collocated with tide gauges or seismological stations and give information about co-seismic land mass movements as recorded, e.g., during the great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 2004 (Subarya et al., 2006. This information is important to separate tsunami-caused sea height movements from apparent sea height changes at tide gauge locations (sensor station movement and also as additional information about earthquakes' mechanisms, as this is an essential information to predict a tsunami (Sobolev et al., 2007.

    This article gives an end-to-end overview of the GITEWS GPS-component system, from the GPS sensors (GPS receiver with GPS antenna and auxiliary systems, either onshore or offshore to the early warning centre displays. We describe how the GPS sensors have been installed, how they are operated and the methods used to collect, transfer and process the GPS data in near real-time. This includes the sensor system design, the communication

  7. Early warning systems and rapid response to the deteriorating patient in hospital: A realist evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGaughey, Jennifer; O'Halloran, Peter; Porter, Sam; Trinder, John; Blackwood, Bronagh

    2017-06-21

    To test the Rapid Response Systems programme theory against actual practice components of the Rapid Response Systems implemented to identify those contexts and mechanisms which have an impact on the successful achievement of desired outcomes in practice. Rapid Response Systems allow deteriorating patients to be recognized using Early Warning Systems, referred early via escalation protocols and managed at the bedside by competent staff. Realist evaluation. The research design was an embedded multiple case study approach of four wards in two hospitals in Northern Ireland which followed the principles of Realist Evaluation. We used various mixed methods including individual and focus group interviews, observation of nursing practice between June-November 2010 and document analysis of Early Warning Systems audit data between May-October 2010 and hospital acute care training records over 4.5 years from 2003-2008. Data were analysed using NiVivo8 and SPPS. A cross-case analysis highlighted similar patterns of factors which enabled or constrained successful recognition, referral and response to deteriorating patients in practice. Key enabling factors were the use of clinical judgement by experienced nurses and the empowerment of nurses as a result of organizational change associated with implementation of Early Warning System protocols. Key constraining factors were low staffing and inappropriate skill mix levels, rigid implementation of protocols and culturally embedded suboptimal communication processes. Successful implementation of Rapid Response Systems was dependent on adopting organizational and cultural changes that facilitated staff empowerment, flexible implementation of protocols and ongoing experiential learning. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Real-time decision support systems: the famine early warning system network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Christopher C.; Verdin, James P.; Gebremichael, Mekonnen; Faisal, Hossain

    2010-01-01

    A multi-institutional partnership, the US Agency for International Development’s Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) provides routine monitoring of climatic, agricultural, market, and socioeconomic conditions in over 20 countries. FEWS NET supports and informs disaster relief decisions that impact millions of people and involve billions of dollars. In this chapter, we focus on some of FEWS NET’s hydrologic monitoring tools, with a specific emphasis on combining “low frequency” and “high frequency” assessment tools. Low frequency assessment tools, tied to water and food balance estimates, enable us to evaluate and map long-term tendencies in food security. High frequency assessments are supported by agrohydrologic models driven by satellite rainfall estimates, such as the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI). Focusing on eastern Africa, we suggest that both these high and low frequency approaches are necessary to capture the interaction of slow variations in vulnerability and the relatively rapid onset of climatic shocks.

  9. Monitoring and prediction in Early Warning Systems (EWS) for rapid mass movements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stähli, M.; Sättele, M.; Huggel, C.; McArdell, B. W.; Lehmann, P.; Van Herwijnen, A.; Berne, A.; Schleiss, M.; Ferrari, A.; Kos, A.; Or, D.; Springman, S. M.

    2014-11-01

    Rapid mass movements (RMM) pose a substantial risk to people and infrastructure. Reliable and cost-efficient measures have to be taken to reduce this risk. One of these measures includes establishing and advancing the State of Practice in the application of Early Warning Systems (EWS). EWS have been developed during the past decades and are rapidly increasing. In this document, we focus on the technical part of EWS, i.e. the prediction and timely recognition of imminent hazards, as well as on monitoring slopes at risk and released mass movements. Recent innovations in assessing spatial precipitation, as well as monitoring and modelling precursors, the triggering and deformation of RMM offer new opportunities for next-generation EWS. However, technical advancement can only be transferred into more reliable, operational EWS with an intense dialog between scientists, engineers and those in charge of warning. To this end, further experience with new comprehensive prototype systems jointly operated by scientists and practitioners will be essential.

  10. A Video Camera Road Sign System of the Early Warning from Collision with the Wild Animals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matuska Slavomir

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a camera road sign system of the early warning, which can help to avoid from vehicle collision with the wild animals. The system consists of camera modules placed down the particularly chosen route and the intelligent road signs. The camera module consists of the camera device and the computing unit. The video stream is captured from video camera using computing unit. Then the algorithms of object detection are deployed. Afterwards, the machine learning algorithms will be used to classify the moving objects. If the moving object is classified as animal and this animal can be dangerous for safety of the vehicle, warning will be displayed on the intelligent road sings.

  11. An analysis of the early-warning system in emerging markets for reducing the financial crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Xiangguang; Song, Xiaozhong

    2009-07-01

    The large number of financial crises in emerging markets over the past ten years has left many observers, both from academia and financial institutions, puzzled by an apparent lack of homogenous causal relations between endogenous economic variables and the bursting of large financial shocks. The frequency of financial crises in the last 20 years can be attributed to the lack of a comprehensive theory of financial regulation to guide policy makers. Existing theories fail to define the range of regulatory models, the causes of regulatory failure, and how to measure and prevent it. Faulty design of regulatory models, and the lack of ongoing performance monitoring incorporating early warning systems, is disrupting economic and social development. The main aim of this article is to propose an early warning system (EWS) which purposes issuing warning signal against the possible financial crisis in the emerging market, and makes the emerging market survived the first wave of the crisis be able to continue their operation in the following years.

  12. The infrared-based early warning system for bird strike prevention at Frankfurt airport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Münzberg, M.; Schilling, A.; Schlemmer, H.; Vogel, H.; Cramer, H.; Schlosshauer, J.

    2011-06-01

    Flocks of migratory birds are very often using geographic structures like rivers, valleys or coast lines for orientation. Wherever the preferred migration routes are crossing the approach corridor of an airport there is an increased risk of bird strike. Flocks of birds crossing the runway corridor of the new runway Northwest of the Frankfurt airport are kept under surveillance now with in total three watch towers located at the river Main which in this case is the preferred used line of orientation. Each of the watch towers carries an early warning system which consists of two pairs of stereoscopic thermal imaging cameras sensitive in the mid wavelength infrared range (3 - 5 μm). A stereoscopic pair measures the swarm size, direction of flight and velocity in real time and with high accuracy. From these results an early warning is derived under all relevant weather conditions. The fixed focus thermal imaging cameras are thermally compensated and designed for ultra low image distortion. Each stereoscopic pair is aligned in the sub-pixel range and is controlled by a reference beam to ensure that the alignment is preserved under all environmental conditions and over a very long time. The technical concept is discussed and the design of the realized warning system at the Frankfurt airport is presented.

  13. An on-site alert level early warning system for Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caruso, Alessandro; Colombelli, Simona; Elia, Luca; Zollo, Aldo

    2017-04-01

    An Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system is a real-time seismic monitoring infrastructure that has the capability to provide warnings to target cities before the arrival of the strongest shaking waves. In order to provide a rapid alert when targets are very close to the epicenter of the events, we developed an on-site EEW approach and evaluated its performance at the nation-wide scale of Italy. We use a single-station, P-wave based method that measures in real-time two ground motion quantities along the early P-wave signal: the initial Peak Displacement (Pd) and the average period parameter (τc). In output, the system provides the predicted ground shaking intensity at the monitored site, the alert level (as defined by Zollo et al., 2010) and a qualitative classification of both earthquake magnitude and source-to-receiver distance. We applied the on-site EEW methodology to a dataset of Italian earthquakes, recorded by the Italian accelerometric network, with magnitude ranging from 3.8 to 6, and evaluated the performance of the system in terms of correct warning and lead-times (i.e., time available for security actions at the target). The results of this retrospective analysis show that, for the large majority of the analyzed cases, the method is able to deliver a correct warning shortly after the P-wave detection, with more than 80% of successful intensity predictions at the target site. The lead-times increase with distance, with a value of 2-6 seconds at 30 km, 8-10 seconds at 50 km and 15-18 seconds at 100 km.

  14. Measuring the modified early warning score and the Rothman index: advantages of utilizing the electronic medical record in an early warning system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finlay, G Duncan; Rothman, Michael J; Smith, Robert A

    2014-02-01

    Early detection of an impending cardiac or pulmonary arrest is an important focus for hospitals trying to improve quality of care. Unfortunately, all current early warning systems suffer from high false-alarm rates. Most systems are based on the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS); 4 of its 5 inputs are vital signs. The purpose of this study was to compare the accuracy of MEWS against the Rothman Index (RI), a patient acuity score based upon summation of excess risk functions that utilize additional data from the electronic medical record (EMR). MEWS and RI scores were computed retrospectively for 32,472 patient visits. Nursing assessments, a category of EMR inputs only used by the RI, showed sharp differences 24 hours before death. Receiver operating characteristic curves for 24-hour mortality demonstrated superior RI performance with c-statistics, 0.82 and 0.93, respectively. At the point where MEWS triggers an alarm, we identified the RI point corresponding to equal sensitivity and found the positive likelihood ratio (LR+) for MEWS was 7.8, and for the RI was 16.9 with false alarms reduced by 53%. At the RI point corresponding to equal LR+, the sensitivity for MEWS was 49% and 77% for RI, capturing 54% more of those patients who will die within 24 hours.

  15. Development of an Earthquake Early Warning System Using Real-Time Strong Motion Signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroo Kanamori

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available As urbanization progresses worldwide, earthquakes pose serious threat to livesand properties for urban areas near major active faults on land or subduction zonesoffshore. Earthquake Early Warning (EEW can be a useful tool for reducing earthquakehazards, if the spatial relation between cities and earthquake sources is favorable for suchwarning and their citizens are properly trained to respond to earthquake warning messages.An EEW system forewarns an urban area of forthcoming strong shaking, normally with afew sec to a few tens of sec of warning time, i.e., before the arrival of the destructive Swavepart of the strong ground motion. Even a few second of advanced warning time willbe useful for pre-programmed emergency measures for various critical facilities, such asrapid-transit vehicles and high-speed trains to avoid potential derailment; it will be alsouseful for orderly shutoff of gas pipelines to minimize fire hazards, controlled shutdown ofhigh-technological manufacturing operations to reduce potential losses, and safe-guardingof computer facilities to avoid loss of vital databases. We explored a practical approach toEEW with the use of a ground-motion period parameter τc and a high-pass filtered verticaldisplacement amplitude parameter Pd from the initial 3 sec of the P waveforms. At a givensite, an earthquake magnitude could be determined from τc and the peak ground-motionvelocity (PGV could be estimated from Pd. In this method, incoming strong motion acceleration signals are recursively converted to ground velocity and displacement. A Pwavetrigger is constantly monitored. When a trigger occurs, τc and Pd are computed. Theearthquake magnitude and the on-site ground-motion intensity could be estimated and thewarning could be issued. In an ideal situation, such warnings would be available within 10sec of the origin time of a large earthquake whose subsequent ground motion may last fortens of seconds.

  16. The Tropical Ecology, Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) Network: An early warning system for tropical rain forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovero, Francesco; Ahumada, Jorge

    2017-01-01

    While there are well established early warning systems for a number of natural phenomena (e.g. earthquakes, catastrophic fires, tsunamis), we do not have an early warning system for biodiversity. Yet, we are losing species at an unprecedented rate, and this especially occurs in tropical rainforests, the biologically richest but most eroded biome on earth. Unfortunately, there is a chronic gap in standardized and pan-tropical data in tropical forests, affecting our capacity to monitor changes and anticipate future scenarios. The Tropical Ecology, Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) Network was established to contribute addressing this issue, as it generates real time data to monitor long-term trends in tropical biodiversity and guide conservation practice. We present the Network and focus primarily on the Terrestrial Vertebrates protocol, that uses systematic camera trapping to detect forest mammals and birds, and secondarily on the Zone of Interaction protocol, that measures changes in the anthroposphere around the core monitoring area. With over 3 million images so far recorded, and managed using advanced information technology, TEAM has created the most important data set on tropical forest mammals globally. We provide examples of site-specific and global analyses that, combined with data on anthropogenic disturbance collected in the larger ecosystem where monitoring sites are, allowed us to understand the drivers of changes of target species and communities in space and time. We discuss the potential of this system as a candidate model towards setting up an early warning system that can effectively anticipate changes in coupled human-natural system, trigger management actions, and hence decrease the gap between research and management responses. In turn, TEAM produces robust biodiversity indicators that meet the requirements set by global policies such as the Aichi Biodiversity Targets. Standardization in data collection and public sharing of data in near real time

  17. A climate service prototype: enchancing Ethiopia's drought early warning tools with input from seasonal forecasting systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calmanti, Sandro; Law, Anna

    2014-05-01

    The EU-FP7 project EUPORIAS is developing a selected number of experimental operational prototypes of climate impact prediction systems in different sectors. One of the proposed prototypes aims at enhancing an existing drought early warning system owned by the Government of Ethiopia's Directorate for Risk Management and Food Security. This early warning system is based on a software platform called LEAP, which uses precipitation and monitoring data to estimate the number of people to be in need of food assistance due to drought. By providing early and objective estimates of the expected magnitude of needs, LEAP helps increase both the speed and transparency with which a humanitarian response can be triggered. Currently, the LEAP uses monitoring data to calculate future needs. The aim of the prototype is to integrate seasonal precipitation forecasts into the calculations, which will enable the model to provide earlier projections of beneficiary numbers, thereby enhancing the entire decision making process. As the implementation of the protype is still in progress we will discuss the workflow of the prototype and the current understanding and modelling approach for the connection between the climate driver (drought) and the corresponding impact (food insecurity). We will also present the expected value of the prototype given the expected level of skill of the underlying seasonal forecasting system and a preliminary cost/benefit scenario for an operational impact prediction system that is able to anticipate the occurence of the most severe drought events.

  18. Application of SOA (Service Oriented Architecture) in Early Warning Systems for Tsunamis and other Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lendholt, Matthias; Hammitzsch, Martin; Wächter, Joachim

    2010-05-01

    The DEWS (Distant Early Warning System) [1] project, funded under the 6th Framework Programme of the European Union, has the target to create a new generation of interoperable early warning systems. Two major objectives have steered the development process: usage of free and open source software (FOSS) and compliance to the principles of a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA). The second objective was mainly driven by the superior ambition of the development of a generic early warning framework not only for tsunamis but also for other natural hazards. The development of a reference architecture enforced the clear separation between hazard-specific and generic functionality. Integration of sensor networks was realized with Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) [2] Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) [3] services. Sensor types are relatively specific for different hazard types: while inundation sensors can be used both for tsunami and floodwater hazards, contamination meters requires a complete different semantic integration into the client application. Based on sensor measurements a simulation system supports the operator with forecasts to enable the dissemination of precise warning messages. The simulation integration was realized with the Web Processing Service (WPS) [4] but here again semantic integration is simulation specific and has to be realized inside the client application. In contrast the integration of Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) via Web Mapping Service (WMS) [5] and Web Feature Service (WFS) [6] to complete the situation report is independent from any hazard type and depends on the data availability and requirements of each warning centre. The downstream component - the message dissemination from the operator via information logistics to the dissemination channel endpoints - has been realized independently from any specific hazard type. Using the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) [7] and Emergency Data Exchange Language (EDXL) [8] enables the re-usage for all kind

  19. Enhancing Community Based Early Warning Systems in Nepal with Flood Forecasting Using Local and Global Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugar, Sumit; Smith, Paul; Parajuli, Binod; Khanal, Sonu; Brown, Sarah; Gautam, Dilip; Bhandari, Dinanath; Gurung, Gehendra; Shakya, Puja; Kharbuja, RamGopal; Uprety, Madhab

    2017-04-01

    Operationalising effective Flood Early Warning Systems (EWS) in developing countries like Nepal poses numerous challenges, with complex topography and geology, sparse network of river and rainfall gauging stations and diverse socio-economic conditions. Despite these challenges, simple real-time monitoring based EWSs have been in place for the past decade. A key constraint of these simple systems is the very limited lead time for response - as little as 2-3 hours, especially for rivers originating from steep mountainous catchments. Efforts to increase lead time for early warning are focusing on imbedding forecasts into the existing early warning systems. In 2016, the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) piloted an operational Probabilistic Flood Forecasting Model in major river basins across Nepal. This comprised a low data approach to forecast water levels, developed jointly through a research/practitioner partnership with Lancaster University and WaterNumbers (UK) and the International NGO Practical Action. Using Data-Based Mechanistic Modelling (DBM) techniques, the model assimilated rainfall and water levels to generate localised hourly flood predictions, which are presented as probabilistic forecasts, increasing lead times from 2-3 hours to 7-8 hours. The Nepal DHM has simultaneously started utilizing forecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GLoFAS) that provides streamflow predictions at the global scale based upon distributed hydrological simulations using numerical ensemble weather forecasts from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The aforementioned global and local models have already affected the approach to early warning in Nepal, being operational during the 2016 monsoon in the West Rapti basin in Western Nepal. On 24 July 2016, GLoFAS hydrological forecasts for the West Rapti indicated a sharp rise in river discharge above 1500 m3/sec (equivalent to the river warning level at 5 meters) with 53

  20. Design and Develop Online Monitoring and Early-warning System of Crane Structural Stress

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Huping; LIN Weiguo; XU Changsheng

    2006-01-01

    This paper proposed an online monitoring and early-warning system of dynamic stress of crane metal structure, and designed this system's hardware, including sensor unit, data gathering unit, and controlling & processing unit of this system, and discussed the waterproof protection for resistance strain wafer and scheme of data gathering and transmission of dynamic strain gauge, moreover developed system software of real-time and online monitoring dynamic stress, including data gathering by DLL and data display & processing based on Visual C++. The system applies the dynamic strain gauge to gather the data of the stress, and communicates between PLC control system of crane and upper industrial computer, so that realize the real-time online monitoring and early-warning for crane's metal structure stress. The test results show this system carry on real time and online monitoring to dynamic stress of load-bearing metal structure longly and stability, and can give an alarm and overload protection on time. So the system has good practice value.

  1. Landslide monitoring and early warning systems in Lower Austria - current situation and new developments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiebes, Benni; Glade, Thomas; Schweigl, Joachim; Jäger, Stefan; Canli, Ekrem

    2014-05-01

    Landslides represent significant hazards in the mountainous areas of Austria. The Regional Geological Surveys are responsible to inform and protect the population, and to mitigate damage to infrastructure. Efforts of the Regional Geological Survey of Lower Austria include detailed site investigations, the planning and installation of protective structures (e.g. rock fall nets) as well as preventive measures such as regional scale landslide susceptibility assessments. For potentially endangered areas, where protection works are not feasible or would simply be too costly, monitoring systems have been installed. However, these systems are dominantly not automatic and require regular field visits to take measurements. Therefore, it is difficult to establish any relation between initiating and controlling factors, thus to fully understand the underlying process mechanism which is essential for any early warning system. Consequently, the implementation of new state-of-the-art monitoring and early warning systems has been started. In this presentation, the design of four landslide monitoring and early warning systems is introduced. The investigated landslide process types include a deep-seated landslide, a rock fall site, a complex earth flow, and a debris flow catchment. The monitoring equipment was chosen depending on the landslide processes and their activity. It aims to allow for a detailed investigation of process mechanisms in relation to its triggers and for reliable prediction of future landslide activities. The deep-seated landslide will be investigated by manual and automatic inclinometers to get detailed insights into subsurface displacements. In addition, TDR sensors and a weather station will be employed to get a better understanding on the influence of rainfall on sub-surface hydrology. For the rockfall site, a wireless sensor network will be installed to get real-time information on acceleration and inclination of potentially unstable blocks. The movement

  2. Developing the Framework for an Early Warning System for Ebola based on Environmental Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dartevelle, Sebastien; Nguy-Robertson, Anthony; Bell, Jesse; Chretien, Jean-Paul

    2017-04-01

    The 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa indicated that this lethal disease can become a National Security issue as it crossed boarders and taxed regional health care systems. Ebola symptoms are also similar to other endemic diseases. Thus, forewarning of its possible presence can alert local public health facilities and populations, and may thereby reduce response time. Early work by our group has identified local climate (e.g. temperature, precipitation) and vegetation health (e.g. remote sensing using normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) variables as leading indicators to known historical Ebola outbreaks. The environmental stress placed on the system as it reaches a climatic tipping point provides optimal conditions for spillover of Ebola virus from the reservoir host (which is unknown but suspected to be bats) to humans. This work outlines a framework for an approach to provide early warning maps based on the present state of the environment. Time series data from Climate Forecast System ver. 2 and AVHRR and MODIS satellite sensors are the basis for the early warning models used. These maps can provide policy makers and local health care professionals timely information for disease surveillance and preparation for future Ebola outbreaks.

  3. An Early Warning System for Bankruptcy Prediction: lessons from the Venezuelan Bank Crisis

    CERN Document Server

    Trigo, Loren; Gonzalez, Felix; Llamozas, Jose

    2007-01-01

    During 1993-94 Venezuela experienced a severe banking crisis which ended up with 18 commercial banks intervened by the government. Here we develop an early warning system for detecting credit related bankruptcy through discriminant functions developed on financial and macroeconomic data predating the crisis. A robustness test performed on these functions shows high precision in error estimation. The model calibrated on pre-crisis data could detect abnormal financial tension in the late Banco Capital many months before it was intervened and liquidated.

  4. Simulating Earthquake Early Warning Systems in the Classroom as a New Approach to Teaching Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Alessio, M. A.

    2010-12-01

    A discussion of P- and S-waves seems an ubiquitous part of studying earthquakes in the classroom. Textbooks from middle school through university level typically define the differences between the waves and illustrate the sense of motion. While many students successfully memorize the differences between wave types (often utilizing the first letter as a memory aide), textbooks rarely give tangible examples of how the two waves would "feel" to a person sitting on the ground. One reason for introducing the wave types is to explain how to calculate earthquake epicenters using seismograms and travel time charts -- very abstract representations of earthquakes. Even when the skill is mastered using paper-and-pencil activities or one of the excellent online interactive versions, locating an epicenter simply does not excite many of our students because it evokes little emotional impact, even in students located in earthquake-prone areas. Despite these limitations, huge numbers of students are mandated to complete the task. At the K-12 level, California requires that all students be able to locate earthquake epicenters in Grade 6; in New York, the skill is a required part of the Regent's Examination. Recent innovations in earthquake early warning systems around the globe give us the opportunity to address the same content standard, but with substantially more emotional impact on students. I outline a lesson about earthquakes focused on earthquake early warning systems. The introductory activities include video clips of actual earthquakes and emphasize the differences between the way P- and S-waves feel when they arrive (P arrives first, but is weaker). I include an introduction to the principle behind earthquake early warning (including a summary of possible uses of a few seconds warning about strong shaking) and show examples from Japan. Students go outdoors to simulate P-waves, S-waves, and occupants of two different cities who are talking to one another on cell phones

  5. Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with Near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products included in the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruce, Joseph; Hargrove, William W.; Gasser, Gerald; Norman, Steve

    2013-01-01

    U.S. forests occupy approx.1/3 of total land area (approx. 304 million ha). Since 2000, a growing number of regionally evident forest disturbances have occurred due to abiotic and biotic agents. Regional forest disturbances can threaten human life and property, bio-diversity and water supplies. Timely regional forest disturbance monitoring products are needed to aid forest health management work. Near Real Time (NRT) twice daily MODIS NDVI data provide a means to monitor U.S. regional forest disturbances every 8 days. Since 2010, these NRT forest change products have been produced and posted on the US Forest Service ForWarn Early Warning System for Forest Threats.

  6. Developing a dengue early warning system using time series model: Case study in Tainan, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiao-Wei; Jan, Chyan-Deng; Wang, Ji-Shang

    2017-04-01

    Dengue fever (DF) is a climate-sensitive disease that has been emerging in southern regions of Taiwan over the past few decades, causing a significant health burden to affected areas. This study aims to propose a predictive model to implement an early warning system so as to enhance dengue surveillance and control in Tainan, Taiwan. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was used herein to forecast dengue cases. Temporal correlation between dengue incidences and climate variables were examined by Pearson correlation analysis and Cross-correlation tests in order to identify key determinants to be included as predictors. The dengue surveillance data between 2000 and 2009, as well as their respective climate variables were then used as inputs for the model. We validated the model by forecasting the number of dengue cases expected to occur each week between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2015. In addition, we analyzed historical dengue trends and found that 25 cases occurring in one week was a trigger point that often led to a dengue outbreak. This threshold point was combined with the season-based framework put forth by the World Health Organization to create a more accurate epidemic threshold for a Tainan-specific warning system. A Seasonal ARIMA model with the general form: (1,0,5)(1,1,1)52 is identified as the most appropriate model based on lowest AIC, and was proven significant in the prediction of observed dengue cases. Based on the correlation coefficient, Lag-11 maximum 1-hr rainfall (r=0.319, Pdengue surveillance and control in Tainan, Taiwan. We conclude that this timely dengue early warning system will enable public health services to allocate limited resources more effectively, and public health officials to adjust dengue emergency response plans to their maximum capabilities.

  7. New early warning system for gravity-driven ruptures based on codetection of acoustic signal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faillettaz, J.

    2016-12-01

    Gravity-driven rupture phenomena in natural media - e.g. landslide, rockfalls, snow or ice avalanches - represent an important class of natural hazards in mountainous regions. To protect the population against such events, a timely evacuation often constitutes the only effective way to secure the potentially endangered area. However, reliable prediction of imminence of such failure events remains challenging due to the nonlinear and complex nature of geological material failure hampered by inherent heterogeneity, unknown initial mechanical state, and complex load application (rainfall, temperature, etc.). Here, a simple method for real-time early warning that considers both the heterogeneity of natural media and characteristics of acoustic emissions attenuation is proposed. This new method capitalizes on codetection of elastic waves emanating from microcracks by multiple and spatially separated sensors. Event-codetection is considered as surrogate for large event size with more frequent codetected events (i.e., detected concurrently on more than one sensor) marking imminence of catastrophic failure. Simple numerical model based on a Fiber Bundle Model considering signal attenuation and hypothetical arrays of sensors confirms the early warning potential of codetection principles. Results suggest that although statistical properties of attenuated signal amplitude could lead to misleading results, monitoring the emergence of large events announcing impeding failure is possible even with attenuated signals depending on sensor network geometry and detection threshold. Preliminary application of the proposed method to acoustic emissions during failure of snow samples has confirmed the potential use of codetection as indicator for imminent failure at lab scale. The applicability of such simple and cheap early warning system is now investigated at a larger scale (hillslope). First results of such a pilot field experiment are presented and analysed.

  8. Design of early warning system for nuclear preparedness case study at Serpong

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farid, M. M.; Prawito, Susila, I. P.; Yuniarto, A.

    2017-07-01

    One effort to protect the environment from the increasing of potentially environmental radiation hazards as an impact of radiation discharge around nuclear facilities is by a continuous monitoring of the environmental radiation in real time It is important to disclose the dose rate information to public or authorities for radiological protection. In this research, we have designed a nuclear preparedness early warning system around the Serpong nuclear facility. The design is based on Arduino program, general packet radio service (GPRS) shield, and radio frequencies technology to transmit environmental radiation result of the measurement and meteorological data. Data was collected at a certain location at The Center for Informatics and Nuclear Strategic Zone Utilization BATAN Serpong. The system consistency models are defined by the quality of data and the level of radiation exposure in the deployed environment. Online users can access the website which displays the radiation dose on the environment marked on Google Map. This system is capable to issue an early warning emergency when the dose reaches three times of the background radiation exposure value, 250 nSv/hour.

  9. The Early-Warning System for incoming storm surge and tide in the Republic of Mauritius

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogaard, Tom; de Lima Rego, Joao; Vatvani, Deepak; Virasami, Renganaden; Verlaan, Martin

    2016-04-01

    The Republic of Mauritius (ROM) is a group of islands in the South West of the Indian Ocean, consisting of the main islands of Mauritius, Rodrigues and Agalega and the archipelago of Saint Brandon. The ROM is particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, especially in the coastal zone, where a convergence of accelerating sea level rise and increasing intensity of tropical cyclones is expected to result in considerable economic loss, humanitarian stresses, and environmental degradation. Storm surges and swell waves are expected to be aggravated through sea level rise and climate change effects on weather patterns. Adaptation to increased vulnerability requires a re-evaluation of existing preparedness measures. The focus of this project is on more effective preparedness and issuing of alerts developing a fully-automated Early-Warning System for incoming storm surge and tide, together with the Mauritius Meteorological Services and the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Centre (NDRRMC), such that coastal communities in Mauritius, Rodrigues and Agalega Islands are able to evacuate timely and safely in case of predicted extreme water levels. The Mauritius Early-Warning System for storm surge and tide was implemented using software from Deltares' Open-Source and free software Community. A set of five depth-averaged Delft3D-FLOW hydrodynamic models are run every six-hours with a forecast horizon of three days, simulating water levels along the coast of the three main islands. Two regional models of horizontal resolution 5km force the three detailed models of 500m resolution; all models are forced at the surface by the 0.25° NOAA/GFS meteorological forecasts. In addition, our Wind-Enhancement Scheme is used to blend detailed cyclone track bulletin's info with the larger-scale Numerical Weather Predictions. Measured data is retrieved near real-time from available Automatic Weather Stations. All these workflows are managed by the operational

  10. Fast Moment Magnitude Determination from P-wave Trains for Bucharest Rapid Early Warning System (BREWS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lizurek, Grzegorz; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Wiszniowski, Jan

    2017-03-01

    Bucharest, with a population of approximately 2 million people, has suffered damage from earthquakes in the Vrancea seismic zone, which is located about 170 km from Bucharest, at a depth of 80-200 km. Consequently, an earthquake early warning system (Bucharest Rapid earthquake Early Warning System or BREWS) was constructed to provide some warning about impending shaking from large earthquakes in the Vrancea zone. In order to provide quick estimates of magnitude, seismic moment was first determined from P-waves and then a moment magnitude was determined from the moment. However, this magnitude may not be consistent with previous estimates of magnitude from the Romanian Seismic Network. This paper introduces the algorithm using P-wave spectral levels and compares them with catalog estimates. The testing procedure used waveforms from about 90 events with catalog magnitudes from 3.5 to 5.4. Corrections to the P-wave determined magnitudes according to dominant intermediate depth events mechanism were tested for November 22, 2014, M5.6 and October 17, M6 events. The corrections worked well, but unveiled overestimation of the average magnitude result of about 0.2 magnitude unit in the case of shallow depth event ( H < 60 km). The P-wave spectral approach allows for the relatively fast estimates of magnitude for use in BREWS. The average correction taking into account the most common focal mechanism for radiation pattern coefficient may lead to overestimation of the magnitude for shallow events of about 0.2 magnitude unit. However, in case of events of intermediate depth of M6 the resulting M w is underestimated at about 0.1-0.2. We conclude that our P-wave spectral approach is sufficiently robust for the needs of BREWS for both shallow and intermediate depth events.

  11. Developing an early warning system for storm surge inundation in the Philippines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Tablazon

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water generated by an approaching storm, over and above the astronomical tides. This event imposes a major threat in the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013 where more than 6000 people lost their lives. It has become evident that the need to develop an early warning system for storm surges is of utmost importance. To provide forecasts of the possible storm surge heights of an approaching typhoon, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Bathymetric data, storm track, central atmospheric pressure, and maximum wind speed were used as parameters for the Japan Meteorological Agency Storm Surge Model. The researchers calculated the frequency distribution of maximum storm surge heights of all typhoons under a specific Public Storm Warning Signal (PSWS that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of probable area inundation and flood levels of storm surges along coastal areas for a specific PSWS using the results of the frequency distribution. These maps were developed from the time series data of the storm tide at 10 min intervals of all observation points in the Philippines. This information will be beneficial in developing early warnings systems, static maps, disaster mitigation and preparedness plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline defense efforts, and coastal protection measures. Moreover, these will support the local government units' mandate to raise public awareness, disseminate information about storm surge hazards, and implement

  12. Surveillance of Dengue Fever Virus: A Review of Epidemiological Models and Early Warning Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Racloz, Vanessa; Ramsey, Rebecca; Tong, Shilu; Hu, Wenbiao

    2012-01-01

    Dengue fever affects over a 100 million people annually hence is one of the world's most important vector-borne diseases. The transmission area of this disease continues to expand due to many direct and indirect factors linked to urban sprawl, increased travel and global warming. Current preventative measures include mosquito control programs, yet due to the complex nature of the disease and the increased importation risk along with the lack of efficient prophylactic measures, successful disease control and elimination is not realistic in the foreseeable future. Epidemiological models attempt to predict future outbreaks using information on the risk factors of the disease. Through a systematic literature review, this paper aims at analyzing the different modeling methods and their outputs in terms of acting as an early warning system. We found that many previous studies have not sufficiently accounted for the spatio-temporal features of the disease in the modeling process. Yet with advances in technology, the ability to incorporate such information as well as the socio-environmental aspect allowed for its use as an early warning system, albeit limited geographically to a local scale. PMID:22629476

  13. Development of an early-warning system for monitoring remote volcanoes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Sauvage

    1996-06-01

    Full Text Available Many andesitic volcanoes are quiescent for long time periods: usually (but not always an increase in seismic activity and in deformation precedes an eruption by a few months or a few days. A UNESCO panel has put forward the concept of an early warning system for monitoring dormant volcanoes in remote regions. Simple seismic or deformation measuring devices can in principle be built for monitoring remote volcanoes. These instruments are composed of two units: 1 a processor that measures the baseline «activity» of the volcano and decides when the activity increases above a certain threshold; 2 a transmitter for long distance communication. For slow parameters like tilt or extensometry, the signal can be transmitted every few minutes or hours. For seismology, signals include a large quantity of data and therefore they are usually not transmitted. The processing unit is not easy to design because a single seismic station can record noises that are very similar to «volcanic events». Average noise level on a given time interval, event detection counters and high amplitude ground motion counters are a simple (but not exhaustive way to summarize seismic activity. The transmission of data from the field to a monitoring center is feasible by present and future satellite telemetry. We present our attempt to develop an early warning system for remote volcano monitoring with data transmission by satellite.

  14. Prototype Early Warning Systems for Vector-Borne Diseases in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan C. Semenza

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Globalization and environmental change, social and demographic determinants and health system capacity are significant drivers of infectious diseases which can also act as epidemic precursors. Thus, monitoring changes in these drivers can help anticipate, or even forecast, an upsurge of infectious diseases. The European Environment and Epidemiology (E3 Network has been built for this purpose and applied to three early warning case studies: (1 The environmental suitability of malaria transmission in Greece was mapped in order to target epidemiological and entomological surveillance and vector control activities. Malaria transmission in these areas was interrupted in 2013 through such integrated preparedness and response activities. (2 Since 2010, recurrent West Nile fever outbreaks have ensued in South/eastern Europe. Temperature deviations from a thirty year average proved to be associated with the 2010 outbreak. Drivers of subsequent outbreaks were computed through multivariate logistic regression models and included monthly temperature anomalies for July and a normalized water index. (3 Dengue is a tropical disease but sustained transmission has recently emerged in Madeira. Autochthonous transmission has also occurred repeatedly in France and in Croatia mainly due to travel importation. The risk of dengue importation into Europe in 2010 was computed with the volume of international travelers from dengue affected areas worldwide.These prototype early warning systems indicate that monitoring drivers of infectious diseases can help predict vector-borne disease threats.

  15. Heatwave Early Warning Systems and Adaptation Advice to Reduce Human Health Consequences of Heatwaves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bertil Forsberg

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: With climate change, there has been an increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of heatwave events. In response to the devastating mortality and morbidity of recent heatwave events, many countries have introduced heatwave early warning systems (HEWS. HEWS are designed to reduce the avoidable human health consequences of heatwaves through timely notification of prevention measures to vulnerable populations. Objective: To identify the key characteristics of HEWS in European countries to help inform modification of current, and development of, new systems and plans. Methods: We searched the internet to identify HEWS policy or government documents for 33 European countries and requested information from relevant organizations. We translated the HEWS documents and extracted details on the trigger indicators, thresholds for action, notification strategies, message intermediaries, communication and dissemination strategies, prevention strategies recommended and specified target audiences. Findings and Conclusions: Twelve European countries have HEWS. Although there are many similarities among the HEWS, there also are differences in key characteristics that could inform improvements in heatwave early warning plans.

  16. Performance evaluation of the national early warning system for shallow landslides in Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahl, Mads-Peter; Piciullo, Luca; Devoli, Graziella; Colleuille, Hervé; Calvello, Michele

    2017-04-01

    As a consequence of the increased number of rainfall-and snowmelt-induced landslides (debris flows, debris slides, debris avalanches and slush flows) occurring in Norway, a national landslide early warning system (EWS) has been developed for monitoring and forecasting the hydro-meteorological conditions potentially necessary of triggering slope failures. The system, operational since 2013, is managed by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) and has been designed in cooperation with the Norwegian Public Road Administration (SVV), the Norwegian National Rail Administration (JBV) and the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET). Decision-making in the EWS is based upon hazard threshold levels, hydro-meteorological and real-time landslide observations as well as landslide inventory and susceptibility maps. Hazard threshold levels have been obtained through statistical analyses of historical landslides and modelled hydro-meteorological parameters. Daily hydro-meteorological conditions such as rainfall, snowmelt, runoff, soil saturation, groundwater level and frost depth have been derived from a distributed version of the hydrological HBV-model. Two different landslide susceptibility maps are used as supportive data in deciding daily warning levels. Daily alerts are issued throughout the country considering variable warning zones. Warnings are issued once per day for the following 3 days with an update possibility later during the day according to the information gathered by the monitoring variables. The performance of the EWS has been evaluated applying the EDuMaP method. In particular, the performance of warnings issued in Western Norway, in the period 2013-2014 has been evaluated using two different landslide datasets. The best performance is obtained for the smallest and more accurate dataset. Different performance results may be observed as a function of changing the landslide density criterion, Lden(k), (i.e., thresholds considered to

  17. An Early Warning System from debris flows based on ground vibration monitoring data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arattano, Massimo; Coviello, Velio

    2015-04-01

    Among the different countermeasures that can be adopted for the mitigation of landslide hazard, Early Warning Systems (EWSs) are receiving an increasing attention. EWSs are the set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals and communities threatened by a hazard to appropriately act, in sufficient time, to reduce the possibility of harm or loss (UNEP, 2012). An EWS from debris flows can be classified into two main categories: advance and event EWSs. Advance EWSs predict the occurrence of a debris flow by monitoring hydro-meteorological conditions that may lead to its initiation. Despite their widespread adoption, these latter systems are prone to false alarms because they are heavily affected by bias between regional rainfall threshold and local conditions. Event EWSs, on the contrary, detect the occurrence of a debris flow when the process is already in progress. They usually rely on the use of algorithms for processing in real time the monitoring data. Their effectiveness depends on the reliability of those algorithms, which require long development and testing phases. A specific testing field for event EWSs has been equipped in the Gadria instrumented basin, located in the Eastern Italian Alps. A specifically designed monitoring unit capable to record data from different type of sensors and to implement aboard warning algorithms has been installed along a straight reach of the torrent. A flashing light, installed on the bank of the torrent, has been wired to this unit. The flashing light is framed by a fixed video camera that also shoots the passage of debris flows in the torrent. This provides a visual verification of the efficacy of the algorithm under test, particularly useful to show to practitioners and administrators a clear demonstration of the warning outcome. In this work, we present the performance of a warning algorithm that has been experimented in the Gadria testing field in 2013

  18. Pilot system on extreme climate monitoring and early warning for long range forecast in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, K.; Park, B. K.; E-hyung, P.; Gong, Y.; Kim, H. K.; Park, S.; Min, S. K.; Yoo, H. D.

    2015-12-01

    Recently, extreme weather/climate events such as heat waves, flooding/droughts etc. have been increasing in frequency and intensity under climate change over the world. Also, they can have substantial impacts on ecosystem and human society (agriculture, health, and economy) of the affected regions. According to future projections of climate, extreme weather and climate events in Korea are expected to occure more frequently with stronger intensity over the 21st century. For the better long range forecast, it is also fundamentally ruquired to develop a supporting system in terms of extreme weather and climate events including forequency and trend. In this context, the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) has recently initiated a development of the extreme climate monintoring and early warning system for long range forecast, which consists of three sub-system components; (1) Real-time climate monitoring system, (2) Ensemble prediction system, and (3) Mechanism analysis and display system for climate extremes. As a first step, a pilot system has been designed focusing on temperature extremes such heat waves and cold snaps using daily, monthly and seasonal observations and model prediction output on the global, regional and national levels. In parallel, the skills of the KMA long range prediction system are being evaluated comprehensively for weather and climate extremes, for which varous case studies are conducted to better understand the observed variations of extrem climates and responsible mechanisms and also to assess predictability of the ensemble prediction system for extremes. Details in the KMA extreme climate monitoring and early warning system will be intorduced and some preliminary results will be discussed for heat/cold waves in Korea.

  19. Enhancing Drought Early Warning System for Sustainable Water Resources and Agricultural Management through Apllication of Space Science - Nigeria in Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okpara, J. N.; Akeh, L. E.; Anuforom, A. C.; Aribo, P. B.; Olayanju, S. O.

    Enhancing Drought Early Warning System for Sustainable Water Resources and Agriculture Management through Application of Space Science - Nigeria in Perspective BY J N Okpara L E Akeh Anuforom P B Aribo and S O Olayanju Directorate of Applied Meteorological Services Nigerian Meteorological Agency NIMET P M B 615 Garki Abuja Nigeria e-mail underline Juddy Okpara yahoo co uk and underline tonycanuforom yahoo com underline Abstract This paper attempts to highlight the importance of drought early warning system in water resources and agricultural management in Nigeria Various studies have shown that the negative impacts of droughts and other forms of extreme weather phenomena can be substantially reduced by providing early warning on any impending weather extremes X-rayed in this study are the various techniques presently used by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency NIMET in generating information for meteorological Early Warning System EWS which are based on models that make use of ground-based raingauge data and sea surface temperatures SST Komuscu standardized precipitation index SPI inclusive These methods are often limited by such factors as network density of stations limited communication infrastructure human inefficiency etc NIMET is therefore embarking on the development of a new Satellite Agrometeorological Information System SAMIS-Nigeria for famine and drought early warning The system combines satellite data with raingauge data to give a range of

  20. Research and implement of remote vehicle monitoring and early-warning system based on GPS/GPRS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shiwu; Tian, Jingjing; Yang, Zhifa; Qiao, Feiyan

    2013-03-01

    Concerning the problem of road traffic safety, remote monitoring and early-warning of vehicle states was the key to prevent road traffic accidents and improve the transportation effectiveness. Through the embedded development technology, a remote vehicle monitoring and early-warning system was developed based on UNO2170 industrial computer of Advantech with WinCE operating system using Embedded Visual C++ (EVC), which combined with multisensor data acquisition technology, global positioning system (GPS) and general packet radio service (GPRS). It achieved the remote monitoring and early-warning of commercial vehicle. This system was installed in a CA1046L2 light truck. Through many road tests, test results showed that the system reacted rapidly for abnormal vehicle states and had stable performance.

  1. Perancangan Prototype Early Warning System pada Kontrol On/Off Belt Conveyor Menggunakan PLC Siemens S7-300

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taufik Taufik

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, automation system become an important aspect of the manufacturing process because could make integration manufacturing process on it more effective and more efficient. PLC or Programmable Logic Controller is one kind of automation system. Many industries use PLC as automation control device in the manufacturing process to control all kind of process. For example at transportation process of coals in generator industry. Coals could be burned because main elements of coals are carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen. Base on this prototype early warning system design, we get the result if sensor thermocouple detects temperature larger than setpoint temperature (it is 2000C, then PLC will give an order to shut down the output, that is a belt conveyor. The result of this prototype design could use at coals transportation as an early warning system. The design of prototype early warning system could detect and prevent fire because of the consequence of burned coals until spreading of fire could be avoided.

  2. Study on Catastrophic Air Current Early-warning and Control System of Coalmines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.F. Fang

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophic air current significantly influences the stability of ventilation system, and existing studies have not considered the flow characteristics of catastrophic air current when designing the control systems. To analyze the effects of different kinds of coalmine accidents on safety production, grey relation entropy theory was used to analyze the hazard assessment of coalmine accidents. Fluent software was employed to study the flow characteristics of catastrophic air current, and the catastrophic air current early-warning and control system of coalmine was researched according to the theoretical analysis and numerical simulation. The threat of fire accidents and roof accidents were larger than other accidents. The influence of temperature and CO volume fraction distribution of fire accidents to the tailwind side was larger than that of the weather side, and gradient decreased on the weather side. This system can effectively control the spread of fire and poisonous gas,

  3. Climate Change Implications and Use of Early Warning Systems for Global Dust Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harriman, L.

    2014-12-01

    Increased changes in land cover and global climate have led to increased frequency and/or intensity of dust storms in some regions of the world. Early detection and warning of dust storms, in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts, will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts to people and the environment. Since frequency and intensity of dust storms can vary from region to region, there is a demonstrated need for more research to be conducted over longer periods of time to analyze trends of dust storm events [1]. Dust storms impact their origin area, but also land, water and people a great distance away from where dust finally settles [2, 3]. These transboundary movements and accompanying impacts further warrant the need for global collaboration to help predict the onset, duration and path of a dust storm. Early warning systems can help communicate when a dust storm is occurring, the projected intensity of the dust storm and its anticipated physical impact over a particular geographic area. Development of regional dust storm models, such as CUACE/Dust for East Asia, and monitoring networks, like the Sand and Dust Storm Warning Network operated by the World Meteorological Organization, and the use of remote sensing and satellite imagery derived products [4], including MODIS, are currently being incorporated into early warning and monitoring initiatives. However, to increase future certainty of impacts of dust storms on vulnerable populations and ecosystems, more research is needed to analyze the influences of human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns on dust storm generation, movement and impact. Sources: [1] Goudie, A.S. (2009), Dust storms: recent developments, J Environ. Manage., 90. [2] Lee, H., and Liu, C. (2004), Coping with dust storm events: information, impacts, and policymaking in Taiwan, TAO, 15(5). [3] Marx, S.K., McGowan, H.A., and Balz, K.S. (2009), Long-range dust

  4. LIMITS OF SWOT ANALYSIS AND THEIR IMPACT ON DECISIONS IN EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florin POPESCU

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats analysis is useful in the decision-making process – crucial to any organization manager and/or strategist. This study aims to add value to the existing literature on SWOT, indicating its use and limitations, showing the need to link SWOT to other strategic tools and methodologies. As the current environment is turbulent and unpredictable, and economic cycles no longer comply with traditional rules, the precaution has become extremely important. That’s why SWOT should be supplemented with newer dynamic analysis capabilities and strategy tools, as early warning and opportunities system (EWOS, which can provide crucial inputs for scenario building, strategic thinking and decisions. EWOS is a novel approach based on three concepts that contribute to the ability of organization/project managers to develop outstanding capacity to "understand" and "benefit" in identifying opportunities and threats: (i business and competitive intelligence; (ii early warning thinking; (iii strategic thinking in decision making process. EWOS is of practical use for strategists and decision makers.

  5. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio AS; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

    2016-01-01

    Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.11285.001 PMID:26910315

  6. A Collaborative Approach to Flood Early Warning Systems In South East Westmoreland, Jamaica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyman, T. A.

    2015-12-01

    Jamaica is prone to climatic, tectonic and technological hazards, with climatic hazards being the most prevalent. Specifically, flood events from cyclonic activity are the most common and widespread. Jamaica also experiences frequent flash floods, usually with insufficient lead time to enact efficient and targeted responses. On average, there is at least one disastrous flood every four years in Jamaica, and from 1800 to 2003 fifty-four major floods took place, causing 273 fatalities and economic losses of over US2 billion. Notably, the 1979 flood event in Western Jamaica caused 41 deaths and economic losses of US 27 Million, and which also has a 50 year return period. To date, no Flood Warning System exists in Western Jamaica and there are limited rain and river gauges. Additionally, responses to climatic events within South-East Westmoreland communities are ad hoc, with little coordination. Many of the hazard responses have been reactive and some stakeholders have delayed to their detriment.[1] The use of Flood Early Warning Systems (FEWS) to address such challenges is thus an option being considered by the community associations. The Rio Cobre FEWS in the parish of St. Catherine serves as a best practice example of community driven flood warning systems in Jamaica. This is because of the collaborative approach to flood risk, strengthened by institutional arrangements between the Meteorological Service, Water Resources Authority, Office of Disaster Management, Scientists and residents of the surrounding communities. The Community Associations in South-East Westmoreland are thus desirous of implementing a FEWS similar to the Rio Cobre FEWS. This paper thus aims to analyse the implementation process in terms of key stakeholders involved, governance approach and the socio-economic impact of a collaborative approach on infrastructure and livelihoods, in the case of future flooding events. [1] (especially in the case of Hurricane Ivan 2004)

  7. The effect of adult Early Warning Systems education on nurses' knowledge, confidence and clinical performance: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saab, Mohamad M; McCarthy, Bridie; Andrews, Tom; Savage, Eileen; Drummond, Frances J; Walshe, Nuala; Forde, Mary; Breen, Dorothy; Henn, Patrick; Drennan, Jonathan; Hegarty, Josephine

    2017-04-25

    This review aims to determine the effect of adult Early Warning Systems education on nurses' knowledge, confidence and clinical performance. Early Warning Systems support timely identification of clinical deterioration and prevention of avoidable deaths. Several educational programmes have been designed to help nurses recognize and manage deteriorating patients. Little is known as to the effectiveness of these programmes. Systematic review. Academic Search Complete, CINAHL, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, PsycARTICLES, Psychology and Behavioral Science Collection, SocINDEX and the UK & Ireland Reference Centre, EMBASE, the Turning Research Into Practice database, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and Grey Literature sources were searched between October and November 2015. This is a quantitative systematic review using Cochrane methods. Studies published between January 2011 - November 2015 in English were sought. The risk of bias, level of evidence and the quality of evidence per outcome were assessed. Eleven articles with 10 studies were included. Nine studies addressed clinical performance, four addressed knowledge and two addressed confidence. Knowledge, vital signs recording and Early Warning Score calculation were improved in the short term. Two interventions had no effect on nurses' response to clinical deterioration and use of communication tools. This review highlights the importance of measuring outcomes using standardized tools and valid and reliable instruments. Using longitudinal designs, researchers are encouraged to investigate the effect of Early Warning Systems educational programmes. These can include interactive e-learning, on-site interdisciplinary Early Warning Scoring systems training sessions and simulated scenarios. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. The Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) adaption in National Early Warning Alerting Systems of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chao

    2017-04-01

    The Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) [1] is an XML-based data format for exchanging public warnings and emergencies between alerting technologies. In China, from local communities to entire nations, there was a patchwork of specialized hazard public alerting systems. And each system was often designed just for certain emergency situations and for certain communications media. Application took place in the NEWAS (National Early Warning Alerting Systems) [2]project where CAP serves as central message to integrate all kind of hazard situations, including the natural calamity, accident disaster, public health emergency , social safety etc. Officially operated on May 2015, NEWAS now has completed docking work with 14 departments including civil administration, safety supervision, forestry, land, water conservancy, earthquake, traffic, meteorology, agriculture, tourism, food and drug supervision, public security and oceanic administration. Thus, several items in CAP has been modified, redefined and extended according to the various grading standards and publishing strategies, as well as the characteristics of Chinese Geocoding. NEWAS successfully delivers information to end users through 4 levels (i.e. State, province, prefecture and county) structure and by various means. [1] CAP, http://www.oasis-emergency.org/cap [2] http://www.12379.cn/

  9. Strengthening Carrying Capacity of a Water Supply System under Climate Change with the Drought Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Syujie; Liu, Tzuming; Li, Minghsu; Tung, Chingpin

    2016-04-01

    The carrying capacity of a water supply system is the maximal probable water supply amount under an acceptable risk which is related to the systematic combination of hydrology conditions, climatic conditions, and water infrastructures, for instance, reservoirs, weirs, and water treatment plants. Due to long-term imbalance of water supply and demand during the drought seasons, the carrying capacity of a water supply system may be affected gradually with more extreme climate events resulting from the climate change. To evaluate the carrying capacity of the water supply system under climate change, three major steps to build adaptation capacity under climate change are adopted, including problem identification and goal setting, current risk assessment, and future risk assessment. The carrying capacities for current climate condition and future climate condition were estimated respectively. The early warning system was taken as the effective measure to strengthen the carrying capacity for the uncertain changing climate. The water supply system of Chuoshui River basin in Taiwan is used as the case study. The system dynamics modeling software, Vensim, was used to build the water resources allocation model for Chuoshui River basin. To apply the seasonal climate forecasts released from Taiwan Central Weather Bureau (CWB) on modeling, a weather generator is adopted to generate daily weather data for the input of the hydrological component of GWLF model, to project inflows with the lead time of three months. Consequently, the water shortages with and without a drought early warning system were estimated to evaluate the effectiveness of a drought early warning system under climate change. Keywords: Climate change, Carrying capacity, Risk Assessment, Seasonal Climate Forecasts, Drought Early Warning System

  10. Web3DGIS-Based System for Reservoir Landslide Monitoring and Early Warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huang Huang

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Landslides are the most frequent type of natural disaster, and they bring about large-scale damage and are a threat to human lives and infrastructure; therefore, the ability to conduct real-time monitoring and early warning is important. In this study, a Web3DGIS (Web3D geographic information systems system for monitoring and forecasting landslides was developed using the Danjiangkou Reservoir area as a case study. The development of this technique involved system construction, functional design, organizing and managing multi-source spatial data, and implementing a forecasting plan and landslide-forecasting model. By integrating sensor technologies, spatial information technologies, 3D visualization technologies, and a landslide-forecasting model, the results of this study provide a tool for real-time monitoring at potential landslide sites. When relevant data from these sites reach threshold values, the model automatically initiates forecasting procedures, and sends information to disaster prevention sectors for emergency management.

  11. A Simple Early Warning System for Evaluating the Credit Portfolio's Quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae Dardac

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The last decade has witnessed the development of a vast literature devoted to the study of several phenomena like banking crises or episodes of vulnerability and distress, characterized by inadequate capitalization, impairment of the asset quality and of the credit institutions' rating. The purpose of this study is to design an early warning system in order to highlight at an earlier stage the likelihood of deterioration of the Romanian banking system credit portfolio's quality. We have applied an econometric model which constitutes a reference for this type of analysis, having as purpose the identification of a significant correlation between increasing weight of bad loans in total assets, on the one hand, and a number of macroeconomic variables and indicators of the banking system, on the other hand.

  12. The reconnaissance and early-warning optical system design for dual field of space-based "solar blind ultraviolet"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wen-cong; Jin, Dong-dong; Shao, Fei; Hu, Hui-jun; Shi, Yu-feng; Song, Juan; Zhang, Yu-tu; Yong, Liu

    2016-07-01

    With the development of modern technology, especially the development of information technology at high speed, the ultraviolet early warning system plays an increasingly important role. In the modern warfare, how to detect the threats earlier, prevent and reduce the attack of precision-guided missile has become a new challenge. Because the ultraviolet warning technology has high environmental adaptability, the low false alarm rate, small volume and other advantages, in the military field applications it has been developed rapidly. According to current application demands for solar blind ultraviolet detection and warning, this paper proposes a reconnaissance and early-warning optical system, which covers solar blind ultraviolet (250nm-280nm) and dual field. This structure takes advantage of a narrow field of view and long focal length optical system to achieve the target object detection, uses wide-field and short focal length optical system to achieve early warning of the target object. It makes use of an ultraviolet beam-splitter to achieve the separation of two optical systems. According to the detector and the corresponding application needs of two visual field of the optical system, the calculation and optical system design were completed. After the design, the MTF of the two optical system is more than 0.8@39lp/mm. A single pixel energy concentration is greater than 80%.

  13. Theory and Application of Early Warning Systems for High School and Beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carl, Bradley; Richardson, Jed T.; Cheng, Emily; Kim, HeeJin; Meyer, Robert H.

    2013-01-01

    This article describes the development of early warning indicators for high school and beyond in the Milwaukee Public Schools (MPS) by the Value-Added Research Center (VARC) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, working in conjunction with staff from the Division of Research and Evaluation at MPS. Our work in MPS builds on prior early warning…

  14. Snow accumulation/melting model (SAMM for integrated use in regional scale landslide early warning systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Martelloni

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available We propose a simple snow accumulation/melting model (SAMM to be applied at regional scale in conjunction with landslide warning systems based on empirical rainfall thresholds. SAMM is based on two modules modelling the snow accumulation and the snowmelt processes. Each module is composed by two equations: a conservation of mass equation is solved to model snowpack thickness and an empirical equation for the snow density. The model depends on 13 empirical parameters, whose optimal values were defined with an optimisation algorithm (simplex flexible using calibration measures of snowpack thickness. From an operational point of view, SAMM uses as input data only temperature and rainfall measurements, bringing about the additional benefit of a relatively easy implementation. After performing a cross validation and a comparison with two simpler temperature index models, we simulated an operational employment in a regional scale landslide early warning system (EWS and we found that the EWS forecasting effectiveness was substantially improved when used in conjunction with SAMM.

  15. The International Platform on Earthquake Early Warning Systems (IP-EEWS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, Jair; Fanchiotti, Margherita

    2017-04-01

    The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 recognizes the need to "substantially increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster risk information and assessments to the people by 2030" as one of its global targets (target "g"). While considerable progress has been made in recent decades, early warning systems (EWSs) continue to be less developed for geo-hazards and significant challenges remain in advancing the development of EWSs for specific hazards, particularly for fastest onset hazards such as earthquakes. An earthquake early warning system (EEWS) helps in disseminating timely information about potentially catastrophic earthquake hazards to the public, emergency managers and the private sector to provide enough time to implement automatized emergency measures. At the same time, these systems help to reduce considerably the CO2 emissions produced by the catastrophic impacts and subsequent effects of earthquakes, such as those generated by fires, collapses, and pollution (among others), as well as those produced in the recovery and reconstruction processes. In recent years, EEWSs have been developed independently in few countries: EEWSs have shown operational in Japan and Mexico, while other regions in California (USA), Turkey, Italy, Canada, South Korea and China (including Taiwan) are in the development stages or under restricted applications. Many other countries in the Indian Subcontinent, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Middle East, Eastern Africa, Southeast Africa, as well as Central America, South America and the Caribbean, are located in some of the most seismically active regions in the world, or present moderate seismicity but high vulnerability, and would strongly benefit from the development of EEWSs. Given that, in many instances, the development of an EEWS still requires further testing, increased density coverage in seismic observation stations, regional coordination, and further scientific

  16. A possible space-based tsunami early warning system using observations of the tsunami ionospheric hole

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamogawa, Masashi; Orihara, Yoshiaki; Tsurudome, Chiaki; Tomida, Yuto; Kanaya, Tatsuya; Ikeda, Daiki; Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Kakinami, Yoshihiro; Liu, Jann-Yenq; Toyoda, Atsushi

    2016-12-01

    Ionospheric plasma disturbances after a large tsunami can be detected by measurement of the total electron content (TEC) between a Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite and its ground-based receivers. TEC depression lasting for a few minutes to tens of minutes termed as tsunami ionospheric hole (TIH) is formed above the tsunami source area. Here we describe the quantitative relationship between initial tsunami height and the TEC depression rate caused by a TIH from seven tsunamigenic earthquakes in Japan and Chile. We found that the percentage of TEC depression and initial tsunami height are correlated and the largest TEC depressions appear 10 to 20 minutes after the main shocks. Our findings imply that Ionospheric TEC measurement using the existing ground receiver networks could be used in an early warning system for near-field tsunamis that take more than 20 minutes to arrive in coastal areas.

  17. [Results of applying a paediatric early warning score system as a healthcare quality improvement plan].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivero-Martín, M J; Prieto-Martínez, S; García-Solano, M; Montilla-Pérez, M; Tena-Martín, E; Ballesteros-García, M M

    2016-06-01

    The aims of this study were to introduce a paediatric early warning score (PEWS) into our daily clinical practice, as well as to evaluate its ability to detect clinical deterioration in children admitted, and to train nursing staff to communicate the information and response effectively. An analysis was performed on the implementation of PEWS in the electronic health records of children (0-15 years) in our paediatric ward from February 2014 to September 2014. The maximum score was 6. Nursing staff reviewed scores >2, and if >3 medical and nursing staff reviewed it. Monitoring indicators: % of admissions with scoring; % of complete data capture; % of scores >3; % of scores >3 reviewed by medical staff, % of changes in treatment due to the warning system, and number of patients who needed Paediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) admission, or died without an increased warning score. The data were collected from all patients (931) admitted. The scale was measured 7,917 times, with 78.8% of them with complete data capture. Very few (1.9%) showed scores >3, and 14% of them with changes in clinical management (intensifying treatment or new diagnostic tests). One patient (scored 2) required PICU admission. There were no deaths. Parents or nursing staff concern was registered in 80% of cases. PEWS are useful to provide a standardised assessment of clinical status in the inpatient setting, using a unique scale and implementing data capture. Because of the lack of severe complications requiring PICU admission and deaths, we will have to use other data to evaluate these scales. Copyright © 2016 SECA. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  18. r.massmov: a GRASS GIS module for landslide runout assessment in early warning monitoring systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannata, Massimiliano; Molinari, Monia; Meisina, Claudia

    2013-04-01

    In the last decades, early warning systems have become a precious support in hazard management by helping in reducing the possible damages caused by natural and anthropic hazards. Furthermore, in the last years, thanks to the rapid advances in science and technology a new concept of innovative early warning systems has been developed taking advantage of the decreasing costs of sensors and the wide diffusion and coverage of internet services (WFS, WMS, WPS, SOS, etc.). In this concept, simulation models can play an important role: in fact, by allowing the objective assessment of the location and intensity of a possible disaster, they can provide valuable information to support decision makers in taking timely and appropriate disaster responses. r.massmov is a new GRASS GIS module for landslide runout simulation over complex topographies developed to meet the expectation of innovative early warning systems modeling services, identified by the authors through four key requirements: i) low simulation times, ii) geospatial capabilities, iii) three-dimensional analysis and iv) open source approach. The model, based on the combined use of shallow water equations and rheological formulas, is the result of a series of enhancements to the original Massmov2D code (Begueria et al. 2009) to significantly improve algorithms and computational times. With this work the authors want to illustrate the main characteristics of r.massmov model: the governing equations, the input/output data, the algorithms and the results of the model application on a case study located in Tessin (Switzerland) that highlighted the effectiveness of the changes performed to the original code in terms of time performances. Furthermore, the authors want to present a set of GRASS GIS specific tools for r.massmov (r.massmov.sensitivity, r.massmov.calibration, r.ucode), developed to systematize and simplify model sensitivity analysis and calibration procedures. References: Begueria S, Van Asch T W J, Malet J

  19. The Early Warning System and the EU’s subsidiarity principle: the Basque Parliament’s application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Luis de Castro Ruano

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This article analyses and evaluates the Basque Parliament’s participation in the EU’s Early Warning System (EWS for checking the application of the subsidiarity principle in the EU’s legislative process. The Early Warning System is an instrument created by the Lisbon Treaty (signed in 2007 and in force since 2009 to safeguard the subsidiarity principle. One of its most interesting innovations is that it facilitates the participation of regional parliaments in the control of the subsidiarity principle. Two years after its introduction, the Basque Parliament is one of the most active regional actors in this regard.

  20. Non-stationary time series modeling on caterpillars pest of palm oil for early warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setiyowati, Susi; Nugraha, Rida F.; Mukhaiyar, Utriweni

    2015-12-01

    The oil palm production has an important role for the plantation and economic sector in Indonesia. One of the important problems in the cultivation of oil palm plantation is pests which causes damage to the quality of fruits. The caterpillar pest which feed palm tree's leaves will cause decline in quality of palm oil production. Early warning system is needed to minimize losses due to this pest. Here, we applied non-stationary time series modeling, especially the family of autoregressive models to predict the number of pests based on its historical data. We realized that there is some uniqueness of these pests data, i.e. the spike value that occur almost periodically. Through some simulations and case study, we obtain that the selection of constant factor has a significance influence to the model so that it can shoot the spikes value precisely.

  1. Early warning system for coffee rust disease based on error correcting output codes: a proposal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Camilo Corrales

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Colombian coffee producers have had to face the severe consequences of the coffee rust disease since it was first reported in the country in 1983. Recently, machine learning researchers have tried to predict infection through classifiers such as decision trees, regression Support Vector Machines (SVM, non-deterministic classifiers and Bayesian Networks, but it has been theoretically and empirically demonstrated that combining multiple classifiers can substantially improve the classification performance of the constituent members. An Early Warning System (EWS for coffee rust disease was therefore proposed based on Error Correcting Output Codes (ECOC and SVM to compute the binary functions of Plant Density, Shadow Level, Soil Acidity, Last Nighttime Rainfall Intensity and Last Days Relative Humidity.

  2. An Early Warning System for Loan Risk Assessment Based on Rare Event Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Hong; Qiu, Yue; Wu, Yueqin

    System simulation is one of important tool for risk assessment. In this paper, a new method is presented to deal with credit risk assessment problems for commercial banks based on rare event simulation. The failure probability of repaying loans of listed company is taken as the criterion to measure the level of credit risk. The rare-event concept is adopted to construct the model of credit risk identification in commercial banks, and cross-entropy scheme is designed to implement the rare event simulation, based on which the loss probability can be assessed. Numerical experiments have shown that the method has a strong capability to identify the credit risk for commercial banks and offers a good tool for early warning.

  3. An Early-Warning System for Volcanic Ash Dispersal: The MAFALDA Procedure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barsotti, S.; Nannipieri, L.; Neri, A.

    2006-12-01

    Forecasts of the dispersal of volcanic ash is a fundamental goal in order to mitigate its potential impact on urbanized areas and transport routes surrounding explosive volcanoes. To this aim we developed an early- warning procedure named MAFALDA (Modeling And Forecasting Ash Loading and Dispersal in the Atmosphere). Such tool is able to quantitatively forecast the atmospheric concentration of ash as well as the ground deposition as a function of time over a 3D spatial domain.\\The main features of MAFALDA are: (1) the use of the hybrid Lagrangian-Eulerian code VOL-CALPUFF able to describe both the rising column phase and the atmospheric dispersal as a function of weather conditions, (2) the use of high-resolution weather forecasting data, (3) the short execution time that allows to analyse a set of scenarios and (4) the web-based CGI software application (written in Perl programming language) that shows the results in a standard graphical web interface and makes it suitable as an early-warning system during volcanic crises.\\MAFALDA is composed by a computational part that simulates the ash cloud dynamics and a graphical interface for visualizing the modelling results. The computational part includes the codes for elaborating the meteorological data, the dispersal code and the post-processing programs. These produces hourly 2D maps of aerial ash concentration at several vertical levels, extension of "threat" area on air and 2D maps of ash deposit on the ground, in addition to graphs of hourly variations of column height.\\The processed results are available on the web by the graphical interface and the users can choose, by drop-down menu, which data to visualize. \\A first partial application of the procedure has been carried out for Mt. Etna (Italy). In this case, the procedure simulates four volcanological scenarios characterized by different plume intensities and uses 48-hrs weather forecasting data with a resolution of 7 km provided by the Italian Air Force.

  4. Interactive early warning technique based on SVDD

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    After reviewing current researches on early warning,it is found that"bad" data of some systems is not easy to obtain,which makes methods proposed by these researches unsuitable for monitored systems.An interactive early warning technique based on SVDD(support vector data description)is proposed to adopt"good" data as samples to overcome the difficulty in obtaining the"bad"data.The process consists of two parts:(1)A hypersphere is fitted on"good"data using SVDD.If the data object are outside the hypersphere,it would be taken as"suspicious";(2)A group of experts would decide whether the suspicious data is"bad"or"good",early warning messages would be issued according to the decisions.And the detailed process of implementation is proposed.At last,an experiment based on data of a macroeconomic system is conducted to verify the proposed technique.

  5. Imperfect implementation of an early warning scoring system in a Danish teaching hospital

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niegsch, Mark; Fabritius, Maria Louise; Anhøj, Jacob

    2013-01-01

    In 2007, the initiation of a patient safety campaign led to the introduction of Ward Observational Charts (WOC) and Medical Early Warning Score (MEWS) at Naestved Regional Hospital. This included systematic measuring of vital signs of all patients in order to prevent patient deterioration and ass...

  6. Application and analysis of debris-flow early warning system in Wenchuan earthquake-affected area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, D. L.; Zhang, S. J.; Yang, H. J.; Zhao, L. Q.; Jiang, Y. H.; Tang, D.; Leng, X. P.

    2016-02-01

    The activities of debris flow (DF) in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area significantly increased after the earthquake on 12 May 2008. The safety of the lives and property of local people is threatened by DFs. A physics-based early warning system (EWS) for DF forecasting was developed and applied in this earthquake area. This paper introduces an application of the system in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area and analyzes the prediction results via a comparison to the DF events triggered by the strong rainfall events reported by the local government. The prediction accuracy and efficiency was first compared with a contribution-factor-based system currently used by the weather bureau of Sichuan province. The storm on 17 August 2012 was used as a case study for this comparison. The comparison shows that the false negative rate and false positive rate of the new system is, respectively, 19 and 21 % lower than the system based on the contribution factors. Consequently, the prediction accuracy is obviously higher than the system based on the contribution factors with a higher operational efficiency. On the invitation of the weather bureau of Sichuan province, the authors upgraded their prediction system of DF by using this new system before the monsoon of Wenchuan earthquake-affected area in 2013. Two prediction cases on 9 July 2013 and 10 July 2014 were chosen to further demonstrate that the new EWS has high stability, efficiency, and prediction accuracy.

  7. Performance analysis of the Early-Est software within the tsunami early warning system installed at the INGV

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernardi, Fabrizio; Lauciani, Valentino; Lomax, Anthony; Lorito, Stefano; Michelini, Alberto; Piatanesi, Alessio

    2014-05-01

    Fast, accurate and reliable earthquake source parameters (epicenter, depth and magnitude) are crucial for seismologically based tsunami early warning procedures. These parameters should be obtained within a few minutes after event origin time when coastlines in the near-field of the seismic source are potentially threatened. Thus there is no time for a detailed analysis and accurate revision of the automatic solution, and only a quick validation/rejection of the results may be performed in most of the cases by a seismologist. Within this context it is important to have a reliable estimate of the uncertainties of the earthquake epicenter location, depth and magnitude. Early-Est (EE) is a software currently installed at the recently established Centro Allerta Tsunami (CAT), the operational segment of the Italian National Tsunami Warning Centre (It-NTWC), in the seismic monitoring centre of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) in Rome (Italy). EE operates on continuous-realtime seismic waveform data to perform trace processing and picking, phase association, event detection, hypocenter location, and event characterization. This characterization includes mb and Mwp magnitudes, and the determination of duration, T0, large earthquake magnitude, Mwpd, and assessment of tsunamigenic potential using Td and T50Ex. In order to test the performance of the fully automatic EE solutions for tsunami early warning, we first compare the hypocenters and magnitudes provided at global scale by different agencies (NEIC, GFZ, CSEM, GCMT) for events with magnitude Mw ≥ 5.5. We then compare the empirical uncertainties we obtain in this way with EE solution and with the differences between the EE system and the reference catalogues. Our analysis shows that EE is suitable for the purpose of the CAT since it generally provides fully automatic reliable locations and magnitudes within the uncertainties expected from statistical analysis of the manually revised reference

  8. Prototype early warning system for heart disease detection using Android Application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zennifa, Fadilla; Fitrilina; Kamil, Husnil; Iramina, Keiji

    2014-01-01

    Heart Disease affects approximately 70 million people worldwide where most people do not even know the symptoms. This research examines the prototype of early warning system for heart disease by android application. It aims to facilitate users to early detect heart disease which can be used independently. To build the application in android phone, variable centered intelligence rule system (VCIRS) as decision makers and pulse sensor - Arduino as heart rate detector were applied in this study. Moreover, in Arduino, the heart rate will become an input for symptoms in Android Application. The output of this system is the conclusion statement of users diagnosed with either coronary heart disease, hypertension heart disease, rheumatic heart disease or do not get any kind of heart disease. The result of diagnosis followed by analysis of the value of usage variable rate (VUR) rule usage rate (RUR) and node usage rate (NUR) that shows the value of the rule that will increase when the symptoms frequently appear. This application was compared with the medical analysis from 35 cases of heart disease and it showed concordance between diagnosis from android application and expert diagnosis of the doctors.

  9. Tsunami early warning and decision support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Steinmetz

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available An innovative newly developed modular and standards based Decision Support System (DSS is presented which forms part of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS. The GITEWS project stems from the effort to implement an effective and efficient Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System for the coast of Indonesia facing the Sunda Arc along the islands of Sumatra, Java and Bali. The geological setting along an active continental margin which is very close to densely populated areas is a particularly difficult one to cope with, because potential tsunamis' travel times are thus inherently short. National policies require an initial warning to be issued within the first five minutes after an earthquake has occurred. There is an urgent requirement for an end-to-end solution where the decision support takes the entire warning chain into account. The system of choice is based on pre-computed scenario simulations and rule-based decision support which is delivered to the decision maker through a sophisticated graphical user interface (GUI using information fusion and fast information aggregation to create situational awareness in the shortest time possible. The system also contains risk and vulnerability information which was designed with the far end of the warning chain in mind – it enables the decision maker to base his acceptance (or refusal of the supported decision also on regionally differentiated risk and vulnerability information (see Strunz et al., 2010. While the system strives to provide a warning as quickly as possible, it is not in its proper responsibility to send and disseminate the warning to the recipients. The DSS only broadcasts its messages to a dissemination system (and possibly any other dissemination system which is operated under the responsibility of BMKG – the meteorological, climatological and geophysical service of Indonesia – which also hosts the tsunami early warning center. The system is to be seen

  10. Comparing Methodologies for Developing an Early Warning System: Classification and Regression Tree Model versus Logistic Regression. REL 2015-077

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koon, Sharon; Petscher, Yaacov

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this report was to explicate the use of logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) analysis in the development of early warning systems. It was motivated by state education leaders' interest in maintaining high classification accuracy while simultaneously improving practitioner understanding of the rules by…

  11. Lessons learnt from an international intercomparison of national network systems used to provide early warning of a nuclear accident

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saez-Vergara, J.C.; Thompson, I.M.G.; Funck, E.

    2003-01-01

    and at the Underground Laboratory for Dosimetry and Spectrometry (UDO) of the Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB) in Germany. The network systems are used continuously to monitor radiation levels throughout a country in order to give early warning of nuclear accidents having transboundary implications...

  12. An early warning system for flash floods in hyper-arid Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cools, J.; Vanderkimpen, P.; El Afandi, G.; Abdelkhalek, A.; Fockedey, S.; El Sammany, M.; Abdallah, G.; El Bihery, M.; Bauwens, W.; Huygens, M.

    2012-02-01

    An early warning system (EWS) for flash floods has been developed for part of the Sinai peninsula of Egypt, an hyper-arid area confronted with limited availability of field data, limited understanding of the response of the wadi to rainfall, and a lack of correspondence between rainfall data and observed flash flood events. This paper shows that an EWS is not a "mission impossible" when confronted with large technical and scientific uncertainties and limited data availability. Firstly, the EWS has been developed and tested based on the best available information, this being quantitative data (field measurements, simulations and remote sensing images) complemented with qualitative "expert opinion" and local stakeholders' knowledge. Secondly, a set of essential parameters has been identified to be estimated or measured under data-poor conditions. These are: (1) an inventory of past significant rainfall and flash flood events, (2) the spatial and temporal distribution of the rainfall events and (3) transmission and infiltration losses and (4) thresholds for issuing warnings. Over a period of 30 yr (1979-2010), only 20 significant rain events have been measured. Nine of these resulted in a flash flood. Five flash floods were caused by regional storms and four by local convective storms. The results for the 2010 flash flood show that 90% of the total rainfall volume was lost to infiltration and transmission losses. Finally, it is discussed that the effectiveness of an EWS is only partially determined by technological performance. A strong institutional capacity is equally important, especially skilled staff to operate and maintain the system and clear communication pathways and emergency procedures in case of an upcoming disaster.

  13. An early warning system for flash floods in hyper-arid Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Cools

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available An early warning system (EWS for flash floods has been developed for part of the Sinai peninsula of Egypt, an hyper-arid area confronted with limited availability of field data, limited understanding of the response of the wadi to rainfall, and a lack of correspondence between rainfall data and observed flash flood events. This paper shows that an EWS is not a "mission impossible" when confronted with large technical and scientific uncertainties and limited data availability. Firstly, the EWS has been developed and tested based on the best available information, this being quantitative data (field measurements, simulations and remote sensing images complemented with qualitative "expert opinion" and local stakeholders' knowledge. Secondly, a set of essential parameters has been identified to be estimated or measured under data-poor conditions. These are: (1 an inventory of past significant rainfall and flash flood events, (2 the spatial and temporal distribution of the rainfall events and (3 transmission and infiltration losses and (4 thresholds for issuing warnings. Over a period of 30 yr (1979–2010, only 20 significant rain events have been measured. Nine of these resulted in a flash flood. Five flash floods were caused by regional storms and four by local convective storms. The results for the 2010 flash flood show that 90% of the total rainfall volume was lost to infiltration and transmission losses. Finally, it is discussed that the effectiveness of an EWS is only partially determined by technological performance. A strong institutional capacity is equally important, especially skilled staff to operate and maintain the system and clear communication pathways and emergency procedures in case of an upcoming disaster.

  14. Application of Advanced Wide Area Early Warning Systems with Adaptive Protection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blumstein, Carl [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Cibulka, Lloyd [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Thorp, James [Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ. (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA (United States); Centeno, Virgilio [Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ. (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA (United States); King, Roger [Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS (United States); Reeves, Kari [Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS (United States); Ashrafi, Frank [Southern California Edison Co., Rosemead, CA (United States); Madani, Vahid [Pacific Gas & Electric Co., San Francisco, CA (United States)

    2014-09-30

    Recent blackouts of power systems in North America and throughout the world have shown how critical a reliable power system is to modern societies, and the enormous economic and societal damage a blackout can cause. It has been noted that unanticipated operation of protection systems can contribute to cascading phenomena and, ultimately, blackouts. This project developed and field-tested two methods of Adaptive Protection systems utilizing synchrophasor data. One method detects conditions of system stress that can lead to unintended relay operation, and initiates a supervisory signal to modify relay response in real time to avoid false trips. The second method detects the possibility of false trips of impedance relays as stable system swings “encroach” on the relays’ impedance zones, and produces an early warning so that relay engineers can re-evaluate relay settings. In addition, real-time synchrophasor data produced by this project was used to develop advanced visualization techniques for display of synchrophasor data to utility operators and engineers.

  15. How does the quantification of uncertainties affect the quality and value of flood early warning systems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiboult, A.; Anctil, F.; Ramos, M. H.

    2017-08-01

    In an operational context, efficient decision-making is usually the ultimate objective of hydrometeorological forecasts. Because of the uncertainties that lay within the forecasting process, decisions are subject to uncertainty. A better quantification of uncertainties should provide better decisions, which often translate into optimal use and economic value of the forecasts. Six Early Warning Systems (EWS) based on contrasted forecasting systems are constructed to investigate how the quantification of uncertainties affects the quality of a decision. These systems differ by the location of the sources of uncertainty, and the total amount of uncertainty they take into account in the forecasting process. They are assessed with the Relative Economic Value (REV), which is a flexible measure to quantify the potential economic benefits of an EWS. The results show that all systems provide a gain over the case where no EWS is used. The most complex systems, i.e. those that consider more sources of uncertainty in the forecasting process, are those that showed the most reduced expected damages. Systems with better accuracy and reliability are generally the ones with higher REV, even though our analysis did not show a clear-cut relationship between overall forecast quality and REV in the context investigated.

  16. AN INTEROPERABLE ARCHITECTURE FOR AIR POLLUTION EARLY WARNING SYSTEM BASED ON SENSOR WEB

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Samadzadegan

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Environmental monitoring systems deal with time-sensitive issues which require quick responses in emergency situations. Handling the sensor observations in near real-time and obtaining valuable information is challenging issues in these systems from a technical and scientific point of view. The ever-increasing population growth in urban areas has caused certain problems in developing countries, which has direct or indirect impact on human life. One of applicable solution for controlling and managing air quality by considering real time and update air quality information gathered by spatially distributed sensors in mega cities, using sensor web technology for developing monitoring and early warning systems. Urban air quality monitoring systems using functionalities of geospatial information system as a platform for analysing, processing, and visualization of data in combination with Sensor Web for supporting decision support systems in disaster management and emergency situations. This system uses Sensor Web Enablement (SWE framework of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC, which offers a standard framework that allows the integration of sensors and sensor data into spatial data infrastructures. SWE framework introduces standards for services to access sensor data and discover events from sensor data streams as well as definition set of standards for the description of sensors and the encoding of measurements. The presented system provides capabilities to collect, transfer, share, process air quality sensor data and disseminate air quality status in real-time. It is possible to overcome interoperability challenges by using standard framework. In a routine scenario, air quality data measured by in-situ sensors are communicated to central station where data is analysed and processed. The extracted air quality status is processed for discovering emergency situations, and if necessary air quality reports are sent to the authorities. This research

  17. An Interoperable Architecture for Air Pollution Early Warning System Based on Sensor Web

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samadzadegan, F.; Zahmatkesh, H.; Saber, M.; Ghazi khanlou, H. J.

    2013-09-01

    Environmental monitoring systems deal with time-sensitive issues which require quick responses in emergency situations. Handling the sensor observations in near real-time and obtaining valuable information is challenging issues in these systems from a technical and scientific point of view. The ever-increasing population growth in urban areas has caused certain problems in developing countries, which has direct or indirect impact on human life. One of applicable solution for controlling and managing air quality by considering real time and update air quality information gathered by spatially distributed sensors in mega cities, using sensor web technology for developing monitoring and early warning systems. Urban air quality monitoring systems using functionalities of geospatial information system as a platform for analysing, processing, and visualization of data in combination with Sensor Web for supporting decision support systems in disaster management and emergency situations. This system uses Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) framework of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), which offers a standard framework that allows the integration of sensors and sensor data into spatial data infrastructures. SWE framework introduces standards for services to access sensor data and discover events from sensor data streams as well as definition set of standards for the description of sensors and the encoding of measurements. The presented system provides capabilities to collect, transfer, share, process air quality sensor data and disseminate air quality status in real-time. It is possible to overcome interoperability challenges by using standard framework. In a routine scenario, air quality data measured by in-situ sensors are communicated to central station where data is analysed and processed. The extracted air quality status is processed for discovering emergency situations, and if necessary air quality reports are sent to the authorities. This research proposed an

  18. A survey of early warning technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, G.D.; Arlowe, H.D.; Williams, J.D.

    1995-07-01

    This paper presents a survey of technologies useful in providing early warning in physical security systems. Early warning is important in virtually all types of security systems whether they are used for temporary (tactical, portable, or semi-permanent) applications, border warning, fixed-site detection, or standoff surveillance detection. With the exception of the standoff surveillance detection systems, all systems discussed in this paper usually involve a moving target. The fact that a person(s) to be detected in a standoff surveillance scenario is not moving presents challenging problems and requires different applications of technology. The technologies commonly used to detect moving targets and some suggestions for detection of stationary targets are addressed in this paper.

  19. Early warning system for detection of microbial contamination of source waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogensen, Claus Tilsted; Bentien, Anders; Lau, Mogens; Højris, Bo; Iversen, Kåre; Klinting, Mette; Berg, Tommy Winter; Agersnap, Niels; Valvik, Martin

    2011-06-01

    Ensuring chemical and microbial water quality is an ever increasing important issue world-wide. Currently, determination of microbial water quality is a time (and money) consuming manual laboratory process. We have developed and field-tested an online and real-time sensor for measuring the microbial water quality of a wide range of source waters. The novel optical technique, in combination with advanced data analysis, yields a measure for the microbial content present in the sample. This gives a fast and reliable detection capability of microbial contamination of the source. Sample acquisition and analysis is performed real-time where objects in suspension are differentiated into e.g. organic/inorganic subgroups. The detection system is a compact, low power, reagentless device and thus ideal for applications where long service intervals and remote operations are desired. Due to the very large dynamic range in measured parameters, the system is able to monitor process water in industry and food production as well as monitor waste water, source water and water distribution systems. The applications envisioned for this system includes early warning of source water contamination and/or variation. This includes: water plants/water distribution networks, filtration systems (water purification), commercial buildings, swimming pools, waste water effluent, and industry in general.

  20. The challenge of installing a tsunami early warning system in the vicinity of the Sunda Arc, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Lauterjung

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Indonesia is located along the most prominent active continental margin in the Indian Ocean, the so-called Sunda Arc and, therefore, is one of the most threatened regions of the world in terms of natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanoes, and tsunamis. On 26 December 2004 the third largest earthquake ever instrumentally recorded (magnitude 9.3, Stein and Okal, 2005 occurred off-shore northern Sumatra and triggered a mega-tsunami affecting the whole Indian Ocean. Almost a quarter of a million people were killed, as the region was not prepared either in terms of early-warning or in terms of disaster response.

    In order to be able to provide, in future, a fast and reliable warning procedure for the population, Germany, immediately after the catastrophe, offered during the UN World Conference on Disaster Reduction in Kobe, Hyogo/Japan in January 2005 technical support for the development and installation of a tsunami early warning system for the Indian Ocean in addition to assistance in capacity building in particular for local communities. This offer was accepted by Indonesia but also by other countries like Sri Lanka, the Maldives and some East-African countries. Anyhow the main focus of our activities has been carried out in Indonesia as the main source of tsunami threat for the entire Indian Ocean. Challenging for the technical concept of this warning system are the extremely short warning times for Indonesia, due to its vicinity to the Sunda Arc. For this reason the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS integrates different modern and new scientific monitoring technologies and analysis methods.

  1. Development of a Global Agricultural Hotspot Detection and Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemoine, G.; Rembold, F.; Urbano, F.; Csak, G.

    2015-12-01

    The number of web based platforms for crop monitoring has grown rapidly over the last years and anomaly maps and time profiles of remote sensing derived indicators can be accessed online thanks to a number of web based portals. However, while these systems make available a large amount of crop monitoring data to the agriculture and food security analysts, there is no global platform which provides agricultural production hotspot warning in a highly automatic and timely manner. Therefore a web based system providing timely warning evidence as maps and short narratives is currently under development by the Joint Research Centre. The system (called "HotSpot Detection System of Agriculture Production Anomalies", HSDS) will focus on water limited agricultural systems worldwide. The automatic analysis of relevant meteorological and vegetation indicators at selected administrative units (Gaul 1 level) will trigger warning messages for the areas where anomalous conditions are observed. The level of warning (ranging from "watch" to "alert") will depend on the nature and number of indicators for which an anomaly is detected. Information regarding the extent of the agricultural areas concerned by the anomaly and the progress of the agricultural season will complement the warning label. In addition, we are testing supplementary detailed information from other sources for the areas triggering a warning. These regard the automatic web-based and food security-tailored analysis of media (using the JRC Media Monitor semantic search engine) and the automatic detection of active crop area using Sentinel 1, upcoming Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8 imagery processed in Google Earth Engine. The basic processing will be fully automated and updated every 10 days exploiting low resolution rainfall estimates and satellite vegetation indices. Maps, trend graphs and statistics accompanied by short narratives edited by a team of crop monitoring experts, will be made available on the website on a

  2. Early Warning Systems of natural disasters in the frame of EUNADICS-AV

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenot, Hugues; Theys, Nicolas; Clarisse, Lieven; Kopp, Anna; Graf, Kaspar; Mona, Lucia; Coltelli, Mauro; Peltonen, Tuomas; Hirtl, Marcus; Virtanen, Timo; Nína Petersen, Guðrún

    2017-04-01

    Aviation is one of the most critical infrastructures of the 21st century. In Europe, safe flight operations, air traffic management and air traffic control are shared responsibilities of EUROCONTROL, national authorities, airlines and pilots. All stakeholders have one common goal, namely to warrant and maintain the safety of flight crews and passengers. Currently, however, there is a significant gap in the availability of real-time hazard measurement and monitoring information for airborne hazards. The main objective of the new Horizon 2020 project EUNADICS-AV (European Natural Airborne Disaster Information and Coordination System for Aviation; http://www.eunadics.eu) is to close this gap in data and information availability, enabling all stakeholders in the aviation system to obtain fast, coherent, and consistent information. Here we report on WP5 of EUNADICS-AV, the objective of which is to develop a prototype multi-hazard monitoring and early warning system. This task includes the development of a service for improved near real-time analyses (delay of a few hours maximum) of observations from satellite and ground-based platforms in order to detect ash and SO2 plumes (at the global scale), as well as desert sand dusts, fire plumes, and radioactive plumes.

  3. An 'Early Warning System' for the prevention of dredging potential impacts on sensitive areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piermattei, Viviana; Martellucci, Riccardo; Pierattini, Alberto; Bonamano, Simone; Paladini de Mendoza, Francesco; Albani, Marta; Stefanì, Chiara; Madonia, Alice; Fersini, Giorgio; Marcelli, Marco

    2016-04-01

    Coastal marine ecosystems are increasingly subject to multiple pressures and stressors produced by the effects of human activities. Intense and frequent disturbances which affect marine environment can derive from dredging activity, which is a fundamental management for most ports and harbours. The potential environmental effects of dredging procedures are generally due to the excavation of material from the sea bottom and the relocation elsewhere for disposal, overflow from the dredger and loss of material from pipelines during transport. Depending on the location and the intensity of these activities the marine environment, particularly sensitive areas, may be affected by dredging. The main environmental effects can be associated with suspended sediments and increases in turbidity into the water column, which can have adverse effects on marine animals and plants by reducing light penetration and by physical disturbance. For this reason it is fundamental to implement a real time monitoring system to control and prevent negative effects, enabling a rapid response to adverse water quality conditions and a fast activation of mitigation procedures, in agreement with all the reference authorities. In this work we present the development of an innovative 'Early Warning System' based on fixed stations, ad hoc in situ surveys and forecasting models, which was applied to a dredging activity carried out in the Gulf of Gaeta (Latium, Italy). It represents an extension of the C-CEMS (Civitavecchia Coastal Environmental Monitoring System) network, which is operative in the Tyrrhenian sea since 2005.

  4. Convective Scale Ensemble Prediction System in KMA for Early Warning of High Impact Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S.

    2016-12-01

    Economic and societal damages due to severe weather events have been increasing in association with the concentration of human and economic resources such as in metropolitan areas. Severe weather events are often associated with rapidly developing convective scale systems, which are strongly influenced by topography, land use, and urbanization, etc. In the forecast those kinds of severe weather events, the high resolution numerical model is crucial to predict these convective scale severe weather events. However, the NWP models have an inherent limitation in the predictability of atmospheric phenomena, especially in predicting the severe weather. It is partly due to the poor resolution and model physics and partly due to the uncertainty of meteorological events. Nowadays most operational centers are being asked to develop more effective early detection systems that can be used to reduce the risk associated with severe weather events. Furthermore, forecasters need to assess and quantify the risk of occurrence of rare but destructive events. Thus, a policy in KMA to provide the probabilistic information of the severe events in limited area using ensemble method was adapted to meets these needs of the effective early warning systems. Ensemble forecasting using finite members is one of the feasible methods to quantify possibilities of extreme severe weather events. The ensemble forecasting has proved to be a successful way of dealing with that kind of inherent uncertainty of weather and climate forecasts. In this study, the limited area ensemble prediction system (LENS) using the Unified Model (UM) in KMA was developed and evaluated for the warm season of 2015. The model domain covers the limited area over the Korean Peninsula. The high resolution(3-km) limited area ensemble prediction system showed beneficial probabilistic forecast skill in predicting the heavy precipitation events. The sensitive experiment to evaluate the impact of uncertainty in model physics on the

  5. Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products Resident to the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruce, Joseph P.; Hargrove, William W.; Gasser, Gerald

    2013-01-01

    Forest threats across the US have become increasingly evident in recent years. Sometimes these have resulted in regionally evident disturbance progressions (e.g., from drought, bark beetle outbreaks, and wildfires) that can occur across multiyear durations and have resulted in extensive forest overstory mortality. In addition to stand replacement disturbances, other forests are subject to ephemeral, sometimes yearly defoliation from various insects and varying types and intensities of ephemeral damage from storms. Sometimes, after prolonged severe disturbance, signs of recovery in terms of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can occur. The growing prominence and threat of forest disturbances in part have led to the formation and implementation of the 2003 Healthy Forest Restoration Act which mandated that national forest threat early warning system be developed and deployed. In response, the US Forest Service collaborated with NASA, DOE Oakridge National Laboratory, and the USGS Eros Data Center to build and roll-out the near real time ForWarn early warning system for monitoring regionally evident forest disturbances. Given the diversity of disturbance types, severities, and durations, ForWarn employs multiple historical baselines that are used with current NDVI to derive a suite of six forest change products that are refreshed every 8 days. ForWarn employs daily quarter kilometer MODIS NDVI data from the Aqua and Terra satellites, including MOD13 data for deriving historical baseline NDVIs and eMODIS 7 NDVI for compiling current NDVI. In doing so, the Time Series Product Tool and the Phenological Parameters Estimation Tool are used to temporally de-noise, fuse, and aggregate current and historical MODIS NDVIs into 24 day composites refreshed every 8 days with 46 dates of products per year. The 24 day compositing interval enables disturbances to be detected, while minimizing the frequency of residual atmospheric contamination. Forest change products are

  6. Exploring drought vulnerability in Africa: an indicator based analysis to inform early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naumann, G.; Barbosa, P.; Garrote, L.; Iglesias, A.; Vogt, J.

    2013-10-01

    Drought vulnerability is a complex concept that includes both biophysical and socio-economic drivers of drought impact that determine capacity to cope with drought. In order to develop an efficient drought early warning system and to be prepared to mitigate upcoming drought events it is important to understand the drought vulnerability of the affected regions. We propose a composite Drought Vulnerability Indicator (DVI) that reflects different aspects of drought vulnerability evaluated at Pan-African level in four components: the renewable natural capital, the economic capacity, the human and civic resources, and the infrastructure and technology. The selection of variables and weights reflects the assumption that a society with institutional capacity and coordination, as well as with mechanisms for public participation is less vulnerable to drought; furthermore we consider that agriculture is only one of the many sectors affected by drought. The quality and accuracy of a composite indicator depends on the theoretical framework, on the data collection and quality, and on how the different components are aggregated. This kind of approach can lead to some degree of scepticism; to overcome this problem a sensitivity analysis was done in order to measure the degree of uncertainty associated with the construction of the composite indicator. Although the proposed drought vulnerability indicator relies on a number of theoretical assumptions and some degree of subjectivity, the sensitivity analysis showed that it is a robust indicator and hence able of representing the complex processes that lead to drought vulnerability. According to the DVI computed at country level, the African countries classified with higher relative vulnerability are Somalia, Burundi, Niger, Ethiopia, Mali and Chad. The analysis of the renewable natural capital component at sub-basin level shows that the basins with high to moderate drought vulnerability can be subdivided in three main different

  7. Exploring drought vulnerability in Africa: an indicator based analysis to inform early warning systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Naumann

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Drought vulnerability is a complex concept that includes both biophysical and socio-economic drivers of drought impact that determine capacity to cope with drought. In order to develop an efficient drought early warning system and to be prepared to mitigate upcoming drought events it is important to understand the drought vulnerability of the affected regions. We propose a composite Drought Vulnerability Indicator (DVI that reflects different aspects of drought vulnerability evaluated at Pan-African level in four components: the renewable natural capital, the economic capacity, the human and civic resources, and the infrastructure and technology. The selection of variables and weights reflects the assumption that a society with institutional capacity and coordination, as well as with mechanisms for public participation is less vulnerable to drought; furthermore we consider that agriculture is only one of the many sectors affected by drought. The quality and accuracy of a composite indicator depends on the theoretical framework, on the data collection and quality, and on how the different components are aggregated. This kind of approach can lead to some degree of scepticism; to overcome this problem a sensitivity analysis was done in order to measure the degree of uncertainty associated with the construction of the composite indicator. Although the proposed drought vulnerability indicator relies on a number of theoretical assumptions and some degree of subjectivity, the sensitivity analysis showed that it is a robust indicator and hence able of representing the complex processes that lead to drought vulnerability. According to the DVI computed at country level, the African countries classified with higher relative vulnerability are Somalia, Burundi, Niger, Ethiopia, Mali and Chad. The analysis of the renewable natural capital component at sub-basin level shows that the basins with high to moderate drought vulnerability can be subdivided in three

  8. End points for validating early warning scores in the context of rapid response systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, N E; Oestergaard, D.; Lippert, A.

    2016-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: When investigating early warning scores and similar physiology-based risk stratification tools, death, cardiac arrest and intensive care unit admission are traditionally used as end points. A large proportion of the patients identified by these end points cannot be saved, even...... the items receiving highest ratings. CONCLUSIONS: End points relating to death, cardiac arrest and intensive care unit admission currently comprise the most obvious compromises for investigating early warning scores and similar risk stratification tools. Additional end points from the gross list...... in the Delphi process, and the experts' combined rating of the usefulness of each suggestion was established. RESULTS: A gross list of 86 suggestions for end points, relating to 13 themes, was produced. No items were uniformly recognised as ideal. The themes cardiac arrest, death, and level of care contained...

  9. Earth Observations for Early Detection of Agricultural Drought: Contributions of the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budde, M. E.; Funk, C.; Husak, G. J.; Peterson, P.; Rowland, J.; Senay, G. B.; Verdin, J. P.

    2016-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a long history of supporting the use of Earth observation data for food security monitoring through its role as an implementing partner of the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) program. The use of remote sensing and crop modeling to address food security threats in the form of drought, floods, pests, and changing climatic regimes has been a core activity in monitoring FEWS NET countries. In recent years, it has become a requirement that FEWS NET apply monitoring and modeling frameworks at global scales to assess emerging crises in regions that FEWS NET does not traditionally monitor. USGS FEWS NET, in collaboration with the University of California, Santa Barbara, has developed a number of new global applications of satellite observations, derived products, and efficient tools for visualization and analyses to address these requirements. (1) A 35-year quasi-global (+/- 50 degrees latitude) time series of gridded rainfall estimates, the Climate Hazards Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset, based on infrared satellite imagery and station observations. Data are available as 5-day (pentadal) accumulations at 0.05 degree spatial resolution. (2) Global actual evapotranspiration data based on application of the Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEB) model using 10-day MODIS Land Surface Temperature composites at 1-km resolution. (3) Production of global expedited MODIS (eMODIS) 10-day NDVI composites updated every 5 days. (4) Development of an updated Early Warning eXplorer (EWX) tool for data visualization, analysis, and sharing. (5) Creation of stand-alone tools for enhancement of gridded rainfall data and trend analyses. (6) Establishment of an agro-climatology analysis tool and knowledge base for more than 90 countries of interest to FEWS NET. In addition to these new products and tools, FEWS NET has partnered with the GEOGLAM community to develop a Crop Monitor for Early Warning (CM4EW) which

  10. Design Principles for resilient cyber-physical Early Warning Systems - Challenges, Experiences, Design Patterns, and Best Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gensch, S.; Wächter, J.; Schnor, B.

    2014-12-01

    Early warning systems (EWS) are safety-critical IT-infrastructures that serve the purpose of potentially saving lives or assets by observing real-world phenomena and issuing timely warning products to authorities and communities. An EWS consists of sensors, communication networks, data centers, simulation platforms, and dissemination channels. The components of this cyber-physical system may all be affected by both natural hazards and malfunctions of components alike. Resilience engineering so far has mostly been applied to safety-critical systems and processes in transportation (aviation, automobile), construction and medicine. Early warning systems need equivalent techniques to compensate for failures, and furthermore means to adapt to changing threats, emerging technology and research findings. We present threats and pitfalls from our experiences with the German and Indonesian tsunami early warning system, as well as architectural, technological and organizational concepts employed that can enhance an EWS' resilience. The current EWS is comprised of a multi-type sensor data upstream part, different processing and analysis engines, a decision support system, and various warning dissemination channels. Each subsystem requires a set of approaches towards ensuring stable functionality across system layer boundaries, including also institutional borders. Not only must services be available, but also produce correct results. Most sensors are distributed components with restricted resources, communication channels and power supply. An example for successful resilience engineering is the power capacity based functional management for buoy and tide gauge stations. We discuss various fault-models like cause and effect models on linear pathways, interaction of multiple events, complex and non-linear interaction of assumedly reliable subsystems and fault tolerance means implemented to tackle these threats.

  11. Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction

    OpenAIRE

    Reinhart, Carmen; Goldstein, Morris; Kaminsky, Graciela

    2000-01-01

    This study analyzes and provides empirical tests of early warning indicators of banking and currency crises in emerging economies. The aim is to identify key empirical regularities in the run-up to banking and currency crises that would enable officials and private market participants to recognize vulnerability to financial crises at an earlier stage. This, in turn, should make it easier to motivate the corrective policy actions that would prevent such crises from actually taking place. In...

  12. Science and Systems in Support of Multi-hazard Early Warnings and Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2015-12-01

    The demand for improved climate knowledge and information is well documented. As noted in the IPCC (SREX, AR5), the UNISDR Global Assessment Reports and other assessments, this demand has increased pressure for information to support planning under changing rates and emergence of multiple hazards including climate extremes (drought, heat waves, floods). "Decision support" is now a popular term in the climate applications research community. While existing decision support activities can be identified in many disparate settings (e.g. federal, academic, private), the challenge of changing environments (coupled physical and social) is actually one of crafting implementation strategies for improving decision quality (not just meeting "user needs"). This includes overcoming weaknesses in co-production models, moving beyond DSSs as simply "software", coordinating innovation mapping and diffusion, and providing fora and gaming tools to identify common interests and differences in the way risks are perceived and managed among the affected groups. We outline the development and evolution of multi-hazard early warning systems in the United States and elsewhere, focusing on climate-related hazards. In particular, the presentation will focus on the climate science and information needed for (1) improved monitoring and modeling, (2) generating risk profiles, (3) developing information systems and scenarios for critical thresholds, (4) the net benefits of using new information (5) characterizing and bridging the "last mile" in the context of longer-term risk management.

  13. GPS Seismology and Earthquake Early Warning along the Southern San Andreas Fault System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Y.; Jackson, M. E.

    2007-05-01

    We are in the process of upgrading CGPS stations in southern California to high-rate (1-10 Hz) real-time (latency Cerro Prieto faults, the region of highest strain rate in southern California and the narrowest part of the North America-Pacific plate boundary. South of the Big Bend, the zero velocity contour (the "boundary") between the North America and Pacific plates does not follow the SAF segment, but rather is located just east of the San Jacinto Fault (SJF) segment and then follows the Imperial and Cerro Prieto faults. The primary purpose of the real-time network is to serve as an early warning system for a large earthquake along the southern San Andreas Fault System by quickly measuring coseismic displacements, and also for GPS seismology to rapidly measure the associated dynamic displacements. The network, called the California Real Time Network (CRTN), also supplies data for real GPS surveys within the region and will provide rapid displacement waveforms to the SCEC data archive at Caltech in the event of a medium to large earthquake. Although the real-time data flow is currently at 1 Hz, the PBO stations have an internal buffer that records GPS data at a 10 Hz rate.

  14. An Energy Demodulation Based Fiber Optic Sensing System for Landslide Early-Warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xing Wang

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available To help reduce the impact of geo-hazards, an innovative landslide early-warning technology based on an energy demodulation-based fiber optic sensing (FOS-LW for short technology, is introduced in this paper. FOS-LW measures the energy change in a sensing fiber at the segment of micro-bending, which can be caused by landslide movements, and automatically raises an alarm as soon as the measured signal intensity in the fiber reaches a pre-set threshold. Based on the sensing of micro-bending losses in the fiber optics, a two-event sensing algorithm has been developed for the landslide early-warning. The feasibility of the FOS-LW technology is verified through laboratory simulation and field tests. The result shows that FOS-LW has some unique features—such as the graded alarm, real-time responses, remote monitoring, low cost and passive optical network—and can be applied in the early-warning of landslides.

  15. A new, ultra-low latency data transmission protocol for Earthquake Early Warning Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, P.; Hicks, S. P.; McGowan, M.

    2016-12-01

    One measure used to assess the performance of Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) is the delay time between earthquake origin and issued alert. EEWS latency is dependent on a number of sources (e.g. P-wave propagation, digitisation, transmission, receiver processing, triggering, event declaration). Many regional seismic networks use the SEEDlink protocol; however, packet size is fixed to 512-byte miniSEED records, resulting in transmission latencies of >0.5 s. Data packetisation is seen as one of the main sources of delays in EEWS (Brown et al., 2011). Optimising data-logger and telemetry configurations is a cost-effective strategy to improve EEWS alert times (Behr et al., 2015). Digitisers with smaller, selectable packets can result in faster alerts (Sokos et al., 2016). We propose a new seismic protocol for regional seismic networks benefiting low-latency applications such as EEWS. The protocol, based on Güralp's existing GDI-link format is an efficient and flexible method to exchange data between seismic stations and data centers for a range of network configurations. The main principle is to stream data sample-by-sample instead of fixed-length packets to minimise transmission latency. Self-adaptive packetisation with compression maximises available telemetry bandwidth. Highly flexible metadata fields within GDI-link are compatible with existing miniSEED definitions. Data is sent as integers or floats, supporting a wide range of data formats, including discrete parameters such as Pd & τC for on-site earthquake early warning. Other advantages include: streaming station state-of-health information, instrument control, support of backfilling and fail-over strategies during telemetry outages. Based on tests carried out on the Güralp Minimus data-logger, we show our new protocol can reduce transmission latency to as low as 1 ms. The low-latency protocol is currently being implemented with common processing packages. The results of these tests will help to

  16. Study of soil moisture sensor for landslide early warning system: Experiment in laboratory scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuliza, E.; Habil, H.; Munir, M. M.; Irsyam, M.; Abdullah, M.; Khairurrijal

    2016-08-01

    The high rate of rainfall is the main trigger factor in many cases of landslides. However, each type of soils has unique characteristics and behavior concerning the rainfall infiltration. Therefore, early warning system of landslide will be more accurate by monitoring the changes of ground water condition. In this study, the monitoring of ground water changes was designed by using soil moisture sensor and simple microcontroller for data processing. The performance of soil moisture sensor was calibrated using the gravimetric method. To determine the soil characteristic and behavior with respect to water content that induce landslides, an experiment involving small-scale landslide model was conducted. From these experiments, the electric resistance of the soil increased as soil water content increases. The increase of soil water content led to the rise of the pore pressure and soil weight which could cause soil vulnerability to the movement. In addition, the various soil types were used to determine the responses of soils that induce the slope failure. Experimental results showed that each type of soils has different volumetric water content, soil matrix suction and shear strength of the slope. This condition influenced the slope stability that trigger of landslide.

  17. Technical-Information Products for a National Volcano Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guffanti, Marianne; Brantley, Steven R.; Cervelli, Peter F.; Nye, Christopher J.; Serafino, George N.; Siebert, Lee; Venezky, Dina Y.; Wald, Lisa

    2007-01-01

    Introduction Technical outreach - distinct from general-interest and K-12 educational outreach - for volcanic hazards is aimed at providing usable scientific information about potential or ongoing volcanic activity to public officials, businesses, and individuals in support of their response, preparedness, and mitigation efforts. Within the context of a National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS) (Ewert et al., 2005), technical outreach is a critical process, transferring the benefits of enhanced monitoring and hazards research to key constituents who have to initiate actions or make policy decisions to lessen the hazardous impact of volcanic activity. This report discusses recommendations of the Technical-Information Products Working Group convened in 2006 as part of the NVEWS planning process. The basic charge to the Working Group was to identify a web-based, volcanological 'product line' for NVEWS to meet the specific hazard-information needs of technical users. Members of the Working Group were: *Marianne Guffanti (Chair), USGS, Reston VA *Steve Brantley, USGS, Hawaiian Volcano Observatory HI *Peter Cervelli, USGS, Alaska Volcano Observatory, Anchorage AK *Chris Nye, Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys and Alaska Volcano Observatory, Fairbanks AK *George Serafino, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Camp Springs MD *Lee Siebert, Smithsonian Institution, Washington DC *Dina Venezky, USGS, Volcano Hazards Team, Menlo Park CA *Lisa Wald, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Golden CO

  18. Development and evaluation of new behavioral indexes for a biological early warning system using Daphnia magna

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Y. Jeong

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available New behavioral indexes including combined index (CI, distribution index (DI, toxic index (TI, and altitude index (AI for a biological early warning system (BEWS were developed and evaluated using Daphnia magna in this study. The sensitivity and stability of each index were compared to evaluate the performance of the indexes through a real-time exposure test with a synthetic copper solution. The applicability of the CI to the field sample was evaluated through an effluent exposure test. The proportional relationship between toxicity level and magnitude of response was much lower in the effluent due to the complexity of water than in the copper solution. The results showed that the CI was most sensitive among the three indexes, while the DI was confirmed as the most useful index among the individual indexes. The combined index (CI shows not only sensitivity but also stability in normal conditions below the statistically significant threshold (p p > 0.01. The CI improved performance of the BEWS in terms of sensitivity and stability, and it was confirmed as the higher correlation coefficient between the magnitude of the index and the toxicity level of the water sample.

  19. The new Algerian Digital Seismic Network (ADSN): towards an earthquake early-warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yelles-Chaouche, A.; Allili, T.; Alili, A.; Messemen, W.; Beldjoudi, H.; Semmane, F.; Kherroubi, A.; Djellit, H.; Larbes, Y.; Haned, S.; Deramchi, A.; Amrani, A.; Chouiref, A.; Chaoui, F.; Khellaf, K.; Nait Sidi Said, C.

    2013-10-01

    Seismic monitoring in Algeria has seen great changes since the Boumerdes earthquake of 21 May 2003. Indeed, the installation of a new digital seismic network has resulted in a significant upgrade of the previous analog telemetry network. During the last four years, the number of stations in operation has increased substantially from 25 to 69, and 20 of these are broadband, 2 are very broadband, 47 are short period. 21 are equipped with accelerometers. They are all managed by Antelope software from Kinemetrics (US Cie), and they are all connected in real time and use various modes of transmission (e.g., satellite, internet, mobile phone). The spatial repartition of the stations now cover most of northern Algeria. In addition, 70 GPS stations have recently been added to this seismological network, most of them collocated with the seismological stations. Since the installation of the network, the records of local or distant events have improved significantly. The automatic processing of the data in a few minutes allows alert messages to be distributed to Civil Defense and other national authorities to react promptly to any emergency. The current strategy is to improve the data quality, to increase the density of the network by adding about 50 new stations, to reduce the processing time, and to reduce the time needed to send out an alert message. The result should be greatly improved network performance, which will lead to an effective early-warning system.

  20. Building a Framework in Improving Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Systems in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tadesse, T.; Wall, N.; Haigh, T.; Shiferaw, A. S.; Beyene, S.; Demisse, G. B.; Zaitchik, B.

    2015-12-01

    Decision makers need a basic understanding of the prediction models and products of hydro-climatic extremes and their suitability in time and space for strategic resource and development planning to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. Advances in our ability to assess and predict climate extremes (e.g., droughts and floods) under evolving climate change suggest opportunity to improve management of climatic/hydrologic risk in agriculture and water resources. In the NASA funded project entitled, "Seasonal Prediction of Hydro-Climatic Extremes in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) under Evolving Climate Conditions to Support Adaptation Strategies," we are attempting to develop a framework that uses dialogue between managers and scientists on how to enhance the use of models' outputs and prediction products in the GHA as well as improve the delivery of this information in ways that can be easily utilized by managers. This process is expected to help our multidisciplinary research team obtain feedback on the models and forecast products. In addition, engaging decision makers is essential in evaluating the use of drought and flood prediction models and products for decision-making processes in drought and flood management. Through this study, we plan to assess information requirements to implement a robust Early Warning Systems (EWS) by engaging decision makers in the process. This participatory process could also help the existing EWSs in Africa and to develop new local and regional EWSs. In this presentation, we report the progress made in the past two years of the NASA project.

  1. The Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) and Emergency Data Exchange Language (EDXL) - Application in Early Warning Systems for Natural Hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lendholt, Matthias; Hammitzsch, Martin; Wächter, Joachim

    2010-05-01

    The Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) [1] is an XML-based data format for exchanging public warnings and emergencies between alerting technologies. In conjunction with the Emergency Data Exchange Language (EDXL) Distribution Element (-DE) [2] these data formats can be used for warning message dissemination in early warning systems for natural hazards. Application took place in the DEWS (Distance Early Warning System) [3] project where CAP serves as central message format containing both human readable warnings and structured data for automatic processing by message receivers. In particular the spatial reference capabilities are of paramount importance both in CAP and EDXL. Affected areas are addressable via geo codes like HASC (Hierarchical Administrative Subdivision Codes) [4] or UN/LOCODE [5] but also with arbitrary polygons that can be directly generated out of GML [6]. For each affected area standardized criticality values (urgency, severity and certainty) have to be set but also application specific key-value-pairs like estimated time of arrival or maximum inundation height can be specified. This enables - together with multilingualism, message aggregation and message conversion for different dissemination channels - the generation of user-specific tailored warning messages. [1] CAP, http://www.oasis-emergency.org/cap [2] EDXL-DE, http://docs.oasis-open.org/emergency/edxl-de/v1.0/EDXL-DE_Spec_v1.0.pdf [3] DEWS, http://www.dews-online.org [4] HASC, "Administrative Subdivisions of Countries: A Comprehensive World Reference, 1900 Through 1998" ISBN 0-7864-0729-8 [5] UN/LOCODE, http://www.unece.org/cefact/codesfortrade/codes_index.htm [6] GML, http://www.opengeospatial.org/standards/gml

  2. Development of Hydrometeorological Monitoring and Forecasting as AN Essential Component of the Early Flood Warning System:

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manukalo, V.

    2012-12-01

    Defining issue The river inundations are the most common and destructive natural hazards in Ukraine. Among non-structural flood management and protection measures a creation of the Early Flood Warning System is extremely important to be able to timely recognize dangerous situations in the flood-prone areas. Hydrometeorological information and forecasts are a core importance in this system. The primary factors affecting reliability and a lead - time of forecasts include: accuracy, speed and reliability with which real - time data are collected. The existing individual conception of monitoring and forecasting resulted in a need in reconsideration of the concept of integrated monitoring and forecasting approach - from "sensors to database and forecasters". Result presentation The Project: "Development of Flood Monitoring and Forecasting in the Ukrainian part of the Dniester River Basin" is presented. The project is developed by the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Service in a conjunction with the Water Management Agency and the Energy Company "Ukrhydroenergo". The implementation of the Project is funded by the Ukrainian Government and the World Bank. The author is nominated as the responsible person for coordination of activity of organizations involved in the Project. The term of the Project implementation: 2012 - 2014. The principal objectives of the Project are: a) designing integrated automatic hydrometeorological measurement network (including using remote sensing technologies); b) hydrometeorological GIS database construction and coupling with electronic maps for flood risk assessment; c) interface-construction classic numerical database -GIS and with satellite images, and radar data collection; d) providing the real-time data dissemination from observation points to forecasting centers; e) developing hydrometeoroogical forecasting methods; f) providing a flood hazards risk assessment for different temporal and spatial scales; g) providing a dissemination of

  3. Evaluation of an early warning system for glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) events in Huaraz, Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinney, D. C.; Somos-Valenzuela, M. A.

    2014-12-01

    People in Cordillera Blanca range in Peru have a long history dealing with natural disasters associated to high mountains; particularly Glacier Lakes Outburst Flood (GLOF). Examples in the Cordillera Blanca vary from a GLOF that occurred in 1941 that killed more than 5000 people in the city of Huaraz to recent events from Lake Artison Baja in 2012 and Lake 513 on 2010, which were not devastating thanks to safety systems previously installed in those lakes. However, glaciers continue melting leaving new lakes or changing the characteristics of lakes that were previously controlled making safety systems obsolete that worked successfully in the past protecting communities downstream. Lake Palcacocha has evolved from being safe after the installation of a safety system in 1970 to an imminent source of GLOF risk due to the expansion that has occurred during the last 40 years increasing from a volume of 500,000 to 17 million m3. In response to this risk the community in Huaraz is planning an Early Warning System (EWS) that will allow the population to mobilize to a safe area in case a GLOF occurs. In this work we present an adaptation of the LifeSIM model to calculate the benefits from such an EWS using 2007 census data and a FLO-2D flood simulation model. The outputs are the number of people in Huaraz that could lose their life due to a GLOF. Our results indicate that without an EWS around 19,773 people could lose their life; whereas, if an EWS is installed the number of victims reduces to 7344. Finally, if mobilization of the affected population is improved the value reduces to 2865. The results show the importance of the EWS as well as informing and training the population to how to react if a GLOF occurs.

  4. Virtual Quake and Tsunami Squares: Scenario Earthquake and Tsunami Simulations for a Pacific Rim GNSS Tsunami Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, K.; Yoder, M. R.; Sachs, M. K.; Heien, E. M.; Donnellan, A.; Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.

    2015-12-01

    Plans for the first operational prototype for a Pacific Rim Tsunami Early Warning (TEW) system utilizing real-time data from the Global Navigational Satellite System (GNSS) are now gaining momentum. The proposed Pacific Rim TEW prototype may resemble the Japanese Meteorological Society's early warning algorithms and use earthquake parameters rapidly determined from GPS data to select the most similar earthquake and tsunami scenario from a database of precomputed scenarios to guide alerts and disaster response. To facilitate the development of this Pacific Rim TEW system, we have integrated tsunami modeling capabilities into the earthquake simulator Virtual Quake (formerly Virtual California). We will present the first results from coupling the earthquake simulator output (seafloor displacements) with the tsunami modeling method called Tsunami Squares. Combining Virtual Quake and Tsunami Squares provides a highly scalable and flexible platform for producing catalogs of tsunami scenarios for a wide range of simulated subduction zone earthquakes.

  5. Drought early warning based on optimal risk forecasts in regulated river systems: Application to the Jucar River Basin (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haro-Monteagudo, David; Solera, Abel; Andreu, Joaquín

    2017-01-01

    Droughts are a major threat to water resources systems management. Timely anticipation results crucial to defining strategies and measures to minimise their effects. Water managers make use of monitoring systems in order to characterise and assess drought risk by means of indices and indicators. However, there are few systems currently in operation that are capable of providing early warning with regard to the occurrence of a drought episode. This paper proposes a novel methodology to support and complement drought monitoring and early warning in regulated water resources systems. It is based in the combined use of two models, a water resources optimization model and a stochastic streamflow generation model, to generate a series of results that allow evaluating the future state of the system. The results for the period 1998-2009 in the Jucar River Basin (Spain) show that accounting for scenario change risk can be beneficial for basin managers by providing them with information on the current and future drought situation at any given moment. Our results show that the combination of scenario change probabilities with the current drought monitoring system can represent a major advance towards improved drought management in the future, and add a significant value to the existing national State Index (SI) approach for early warning purposes.

  6. Improvement of the Earthquake Early Warning System with Wavefield Extrapolation with Apparent Velocity and Direction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, A.; Yomogida, K.

    2014-12-01

    The early warning system operated by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has been available in public since October 2007.The present system is still not effective in cases, that we cannot assume a nearly circular wavefront expansion from a source. We propose a new approach based on the extrapolation of the early observed wavefield alone without estimating its epicenter. The idea is similar to the migration method in exploration seismology, but we use not only the information of wave field at an early stage (i.e., at time T2 in Figure, but also its normal derivatives the difference between T1 and T2), that is, we utilize the apparent velocity and direction of early-stage wave propagation to predict the wavefield later (at T3 in Fig.). For the extrapolation of wavefield, we need a reliable Green's function from the observed point to a target point at which the wave arrives later. Since the complete 3-D wave propagation is extremely complex, particularly in and around Japan of highly heterogeneous structures, we shall consider a phenomenological 2-D Green's function, that is, a wavefront propagates on the surface with a certain apparent velocity and direction of P wave. This apparent velocity and direction may vary significantly depending on, for example, event depth and an area of propagation, so we examined those of P wave propagating in Japan in various situations. For example, the velocity of shallow events in Hokkaido is 7.1km/s while that in Nagano prefecture is about 5.5km/s. In addition, the apparent velocity depends on event depth, 7.1km/s for the depth of 10km and 8.9km/s for 100km in Hokkaido. We also conducted f-k array analyses of adjacent five or six stations where we can accurately estimate the apparent velocity and direction of P wave. For deep events with relatively simple waveforms, they are easily obtained, but we may need site corrections to enhance correlations of waveforms among stations for shallow ones. In the above extrapolation scheme, we can

  7. Evaluation on the Implementation of Early Warning System for Debris Flow in Merapi Area (Case Study at Boyong River

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Cahyadi Achmad

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available One of disasters caused by volcanic activity of Mount Merapi is secondary disaster. The disaster usually occurs after eruption and this volcanic activity produces volcanic and pyroclastic material deposit around the top of the mountain as a result of previous eruption. This material might collapse downward in the form of debris flow as it is affected by natural event such as high intensity rainfall. Therefore, a research is needed to analyze whether existing forecasting and early warning system are capable to provide information for the people living in hazardous area before the debris flood occur. This research was carried out using field survey, observation and interview method. Data analysis used qualitative descriptive method by making description of actual condition of the researched location general condition and qualitative analysis of telemetry system installed on Mount Merapi. The qualitative analysis of telemetry system covers network, hardware, software, power supply, security system, operation and maintenance, also human resources. Research analysis used primary and secondary data. Research results revealed that mean rainfall intensity above of 60 mm/hour might trigger debris flood. Early warning should be given at the rainfall intensity level of 50-55 mm/hour, and debris flood time travel from the upstream to the observed location in Pulowatu Village is 45 minute. Based on the analysis of the present forecasting and early warning system, it is known that some of the equipment is not well functioned, so that debris flow cannot be predicted and detected. This is caused by the lack of human resource quality of the officers in operating and maintaining the equipment. Concerning that matter, it is necessary to conduct some improvement to achieve better forecasting and early warning system in order to give information regarding occurrence of debris flow.

  8. Drought monitoring and assessment: Remote sensing and modeling approaches for the Famine Early Warning Systems Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senay, Gabriel; Velpuri, Naga Manohar; Bohms, Stefanie; Budde, Michael; Young, Claudia; Rowland, James; Verdin, James

    2015-01-01

    Drought monitoring is an essential component of drought risk management. It is usually carried out using drought indices/indicators that are continuous functions of rainfall and other hydrometeorological variables. This chapter presents a few examples of how remote sensing and hydrologic modeling techniques are being used to generate a suite of drought monitoring indicators at dekadal (10-day), monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales for several selected regions around the world. Satellite-based rainfall estimates are being used to produce drought indicators such as standardized precipitation index, dryness indicators, and start of season analysis. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index is being used to monitor vegetation condition. Several satellite data products are combined using agrohydrologic models to produce multiple short- and long-term indicators of droughts. All the data sets are being produced and updated in near-real time to provide information about the onset, progression, extent, and intensity of drought conditions. The data and products produced are available for download from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) data portal at http://earlywarning.usgs.gov. The availability of timely information and products support the decision-making processes in drought-related hazard assessment, monitoring, and management with the FEWS NET. The drought-hazard monitoring approach perfected by the U.S. Geological Survey for FEWS NET through the integration of satellite data and hydrologic modeling can form the basis for similar decision support systems. Such systems can operationally produce reliable and useful regional information that is relevant for local, district-level decision making.

  9. Paediatric early warning systems for detecting and responding to clinical deterioration in children: a systematic review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Veronica; Matthews, Anne; MacDonell, Rachel; Fitzsimons, John

    2017-01-01

    Objective To systematically review the available evidence on paediatric early warning systems (PEWS) for use in acute paediatric healthcare settings for the detection of, and timely response to, clinical deterioration in children. Method The electronic databases PubMed, MEDLINE, CINAHL, EMBASE and Cochrane were searched systematically from inception up to August 2016. Eligible studies had to refer to PEWS, inclusive of rapid response systems and teams. Outcomes had to be specific to the identification of and/or response to clinical deterioration in children (including neonates) in paediatric hospital settings (including emergency departments). 2 review authors independently completed the screening and selection process, the quality appraisal of the retrieved evidence and data extraction; with a third reviewer resolving any discrepancies, as required. Results were narratively synthesised. Results From a total screening of 2742 papers, 90 papers, of varied designs, were identified as eligible for inclusion in the review. Findings revealed that PEWS are extensively used internationally in paediatric inpatient hospital settings. However, robust empirical evidence on which PEWS is most effective was limited. The studies examined did however highlight some evidence of positive directional trends in improving clinical and process-based outcomes for clinically deteriorating children. Favourable outcomes were also identified for enhanced multidisciplinary team work, communication and confidence in recognising, reporting and making decisions about child clinical deterioration. Conclusions Despite many studies reporting on the complexity and multifaceted nature of PEWS, no evidence was sourced which examined PEWS as a complex healthcare intervention. Future research needs to investigate PEWS as a complex multifaceted sociotechnical system that is embedded in a wider safety culture influenced by many organisational and human factors. PEWS should be embraced as a part of a

  10. Demonstration of the Cascadia G‐FAST geodetic earthquake early warning system for the Nisqually, Washington, earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowell, Brendan; Schmidt, David; Bodin, Paul; Vidale, John; Gomberg, Joan S.; Hartog, Renate; Kress, Victor; Melbourne, Tim; Santillian, Marcelo; Minson, Sarah E.; Jamison, Dylan

    2016-01-01

    A prototype earthquake early warning (EEW) system is currently in development in the Pacific Northwest. We have taken a two‐stage approach to EEW: (1) detection and initial characterization using strong‐motion data with the Earthquake Alarm Systems (ElarmS) seismic early warning package and (2) the triggering of geodetic modeling modules using Global Navigation Satellite Systems data that help provide robust estimates of large‐magnitude earthquakes. In this article we demonstrate the performance of the latter, the Geodetic First Approximation of Size and Time (G‐FAST) geodetic early warning system, using simulated displacements for the 2001Mw 6.8 Nisqually earthquake. We test the timing and performance of the two G‐FAST source characterization modules, peak ground displacement scaling, and Centroid Moment Tensor‐driven finite‐fault‐slip modeling under ideal, latent, noisy, and incomplete data conditions. We show good agreement between source parameters computed by G‐FAST with previously published and postprocessed seismic and geodetic results for all test cases and modeling modules, and we discuss the challenges with integration into the U.S. Geological Survey’s ShakeAlert EEW system.

  11. Design and implementation of an early warning system in vehicle for road speed control hump based on DSP and CCD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Shuyi; Zhu, Pingyu; He, Yanfang; Wang, Le

    2011-12-01

    Road speed control humps have the effect of strengthening transportation safety by preventing traffic accidents. However, vehicles will produce strong mechanical vibrations when crossing speed control humps at high speed. These vibrations affect the passenger's comfort and cause machine parts damage. Early warning systems in vehicles for road speed control humps were designed based on DSP and CCD sensors. The system uses a CCD camera to take the picture of the road speed control humps. The image information is processed and recognised by DSP. Then the related voice and image information is given quickly and accurately after the system processes. This information will remind the driver to prepare for slowing down in good time, it makes them safe and comfortable to pass over the road speed control hump.TMS320DM642DSP early warning system in vehicles was illustrated from three aspects of the image collection module, the image discernment module and the early warning export module. TMS320C6x soft develop flow was introduced in this paper. The system has strong practicality, rapid response and well directed-viewing.

  12. SafeLand guidelines for landslide monitoring and early warning systems in Europe - Design and required technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazin, S.

    2012-04-01

    Landslide monitoring means the comparison of landslide characteristics like areal extent, speed of movement, surface topography and soil humidity from different periods in order to assess landslide activity. An ultimate "universal" methodology for this purpose does not exist; every technology has its own advantages and disadvantages. End-users should carefully consider each one to select the methodologies that represent the best compromise between pros and cons, and are best suited for their needs. Besides monitoring technology, there are many factors governing the choice of an Early Warning System (EWS). A people-centred EWS necessarily comprises five key elements: (1) knowledge of the risks; (2) identification, monitoring, analysis and forecasting of the hazards; (3) operational centre; (4) communication or dissemination of alerts and warnings; and (5) local capabilities to respond to the warnings received. The expression "end-to-end warning system" is also used to emphasize that EWSs need to span all steps from hazard detection through to community response. The aim of the present work is to provide guidelines for establishing the different components for landslide EWSs. One of the main deliverables of the EC-FP7 SafeLand project addresses the technical and practical issues related to monitoring and early warning for landslides, and identifies the best technologies available in the context of both hazard assessment and design of EWSs. This deliverable targets the end-users and aims to facilitate the decision process by providing guidelines. For the purpose of sharing the globally accumulated expertise, a screening study was done on 14 EWSs from 8 different countries. On these bases, the report presents a synoptic view of existing monitoring methodologies and early-warning strategies and their applicability for different landslide types, scales and risk management steps. Several comprehensive checklists and toolboxes are also included to support informed

  13. Corner reflector SAR interferometry as an element of a landslide early warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singer, J.; Riedmann, M.; Lang, O.; Anderssohn, J.; Thuro, K.; Wunderlich, Th.; Heunecke, O.; Minet, Ch.

    2012-04-01

    The development of efficient and cost-effective landslide monitoring techniques is the central aim of the alpEWAS research project (www.alpewas.de). Within the scope of the project a terrestrial geosensor network on a landslide site in the Bavarian Alps has been set up, consisting of low cost GNSS with subcentimeter precision, time domain reflectometry (TDR) and video tacheometry (VTPS). To increase the spatial sampling, 16 low-cost Radar Corner Reflectors (CRs) were installed on the site in 2011. The CRs are to reflect radar signals back to the TerraSAR-X radar satellite, allowing for precise displacement measurements. The subject of this study is the application of the CR SAR Interferometry (CRInSAR) technique, and the integration of the derived motion field into an early warning system for landslide monitoring based on terrestrial measurements. An accurate validation data set is realized independently of the monitoring network using millimeter precision GNSS and tacheometer measurements. The 12 CRs from Astrium Geo-Information Services employed over the test site were specifically designed for TerraSAR-X satellite passes. They are made of concrete with integrated metal plates weighing about 80 to 100 kg. They are of triangular trihedral shape with minimal dimensions to obtain a Radar Cross Section 100 times stronger than that of the surrounding area. The concrete guarantees stability against harsh weather conditions, and robustness with respect to vandalism or theft. In addition, the Technical University of Munich (TUM) and the German Aerospace Center (DLR) installed another four CRs made entirely out of aluminum, with the TUM reflectors being of similar minimum size than the Astrium reflectors. Three CRs were placed on assumed stable ground outside the slope area and shall act as reference reflectors. Since the installation date of most CRs (25/08/2011), TerraSAR-X HighResolution SpotLight data have been repeatedly acquired from ascending orbit over the test

  14. A Drought Early Warning System Using System Dynamics Model and Seasonal Climate Forecasts: a case study in Hsinchu, Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tien, Yu-Chuan; Tung, Ching-Ping; Liu, Tzu-Ming; Lin, Chia-Yu

    2016-04-01

    In the last twenty years, Hsinchu, a county of Taiwan, has experienced a tremendous growth in water demand due to the development of Hsinchu Science Park. In order to fulfill the water demand, the government has built the new reservoir, Baoshan second reservoir. However, short term droughts still happen. One of the reasons is that the water level of the reservoirs in Hsinchu cannot be reasonably forecasted, which sometimes even underestimates the severity of drought. The purpose of this study is to build a drought early warning system that projects the water levels of two important reservoirs, Baoshan and Baoshan second reservoir, and also the spatial distribution of water shortagewith the lead time of three months. Furthermore, this study also attempts to assist the government to improve water resources management. Hence, a system dynamics model of Touchien River, which is the most important river for public water supply in Hsinchu, is developed. The model consists of several important subsystems, including two reservoirs, water treatment plants and agricultural irrigation districts. Using the upstream flow generated by seasonal weather forecasting data, the model is able to simulate the storage of the two reservoirs and the distribution of water shortage. Moreover, the model can also provide the information under certain emergency scenarios, such as the accident or failure of a water treatment plant. At last, the performance of the proposed method and the original water resource management method that the government used were also compared. Keyword: Water Resource Management, Hydrology, Seasonal Climate Forecast, Reservoir, Early Warning, Drought

  15. Filtering big data from social media--Building an early warning system for adverse drug reactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ming; Kiang, Melody; Shang, Wei

    2015-04-01

    satisfactory performance in identifying ADR related posts for post-marketing drug surveillance. The overall design of our system also points out a potentially fruitful direction for building other early warning systems that need to filter big data from social media networks. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Overview of main challenges for Early Warning Systems for Food Security in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Genesio, Lorenzo; Bacci, Maurizio; Baron, Christian; Diarra, Birama; di Vecchia, Andrea; Traoré, Seydou; Hassane, Idrissa; Ndiaye, Mamadou; Philippon, Nathalie; Tarchiani, Vieri

    2010-05-01

    In West Africa Early Warning Systems (EWSs) for food security have been widely recognized to have contributed in the last twenty years to better face famine emergencies. The improved understanding of the environmental and socio-economic dynamics of the region, a change in the causes for food insecurity and the evolution of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) have favored the introduction of new approaches and the involvement of a network of stakeholders. In recent years the improvement of EWS has been concentrated in the adaptation and the transfer of existing tools rather than the development of the overall design of EWS in function of users needs, at the same time key scientific areas to be improved to provide major operational advancements needs to be better identified. This partially due to a difficulty of the research community to be in direct connection with operational processes and on the other side by an evident limit in following a demand driven approach due to the difficulties in modelling bio and social phenomena in a unique environment. In this context AMMA project had the ambitious objective of bridging the gap between state of the art research in the domains of geo-science and human related disciplines, and the operational EWS. The work carried out in AMMA, while improving the understanding of monsoon system, allowed to better orient research challenges in order to provide EWS with improved products effectively meeting the needs of end-users at different levels. In this work, advancements in providing appropriate information for the identification of agricultural risk zones by using short to long time forecasts are illustrated highlighting critical aspects still demanding scientific improvements.

  17. Developing the remote sensing-based early warning system for monitoring TSS concentrations in Lake Mead.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imen, Sanaz; Chang, Ni-Bin; Yang, Y Jeffrey

    2015-09-01

    Adjustment of the water treatment process to changes in water quality is a focus area for engineers and managers of water treatment plants. The desired and preferred capability depends on timely and quantitative knowledge of water quality monitoring in terms of total suspended solids (TSS) concentrations. This paper presents the development of a suite of nowcasting and forecasting methods by using high-resolution remote-sensing-based monitoring techniques on a daily basis. First, the integrated data fusion and mining (IDFM) technique was applied to develop a near real-time monitoring system for daily nowcasting of the TSS concentrations. Then a nonlinear autoregressive neural network with external input (NARXNET) model was selected and applied for forecasting analysis of the changes in TSS concentrations over time on a rolling basis onward using the IDFM technique. The implementation of such an integrated forecasting and nowcasting approach was assessed by a case study at Lake Mead hosting the water intake for Las Vegas, Nevada, in the water-stressed western U.S. Long-term monthly averaged results showed no simultaneous impact from forest fire events on accelerating the rise of TSS concentration. However, the results showed a probable impact of a decade of drought on increasing TSS concentration in the Colorado River Arm and Overton Arm. Results of the forecasting model highlight the reservoir water level as a significant parameter in predicting TSS in Lake Mead. In addition, the R-squared value of 0.98 and the root mean square error of 0.5 between the observed and predicted TSS values demonstrates the reliability and application potential of this remote sensing-based early warning system in terms of TSS projections at a drinking water intake. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Asthma Early Warning System in New York City (aewsnyc) Using Remote Sensing Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassebo, Yasser; Rahman, Zahidur

    2011-06-01

    Asthma is estimated to affect approximately 17.3 million Americans, including 5 million children less than 18 years of age. Of these 5 million children, 1.3 million are less than 5 years of age. Asthma is a major public health problem in NYC particularly in Bronx. 12.5% of new Yorkers have been diagnosed with asthma. 300,000 children in NYC have been diagnosed with asthma up to year of 2000. NYC children were almost twice as likely to be hospitalized due to asthma attacks as the average of US child in 2000. Queens county's diesel pollution risk ranks as the 10th unhealthiest in the US compared to over than 3000 counties. Asthma symptoms are consistent with exposure to a high level of a respiratory irritant gas, smoke fume, vapor, aerosol, particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5), and dust. Some types these environmental gaseous such as sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) can exacerbate preexisting respiratory symptoms in the short-term. Control of air pollution related diseases such as asthma, cancer, and bronchitis is difficult and inefficient due to the uncertainty in the air pollution transportation. Asthma control relies on air pollution detection and reduction. Asthma control can be improved by applying spatial tools such as Remote Sensing (RS), Geographical Information Systems (GIS). The project long-term goal is to develop a model to predict an Asthma Early Warning System for NYC (AEWSNYC), using two approaches: (1) satellite data error correction collaboratively with (2) Ground-based multiwavelength lidar measurements and NASA back trajectory tools. The proposed method can be used to create an efficient asthma control model globally.

  19. Mega-Tsunami of 26th December, 2004: Indian initiative for early warning system and mitigation of oceanogenic hazards

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HarshGupta

    2005-01-01

    The 26th December 2004 earthquake of Mw 9.3 is the second largest earthquake ever to have been recorded.This generated a tsunami which affected several Asian countries. In India, the Andaman & Nicobar group of islands, and coastal states of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala were severely affected. Here, we briefly provide an outline of the approach taken by India for an early warning system for mitigation of oceanogenic disasters.

  20. Implementation of a Pediatric Early Warning Scoring System at an Academic Medical Center.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, Kimberly; Collado, Jerry Christopher; Keller, Sheila

    2016-01-01

    Despite the addition of family-activated rapid response to the rapid response team algorithm, a children's hospital did not see an increase in utilization of the pediatric rapid response team. A Pediatric Early Warning Score in non-ICU pediatric inpatient units was implemented to increase the number of rapid response team activations. A retrospective review of the 130-bed facility, over a 12-month period, revealed an increase in pediatric rapid response calls, with a subsequent decrease in code team activations. The authors outline implementation strategies and discuss barriers encountered throughout the process, along with implications for nurse leaders.

  1. Flood Early Warning in Bridge Management System: from idea to implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerin, Igor; Bekić, Damir; Michalis, Panagiotis; Šolman, Hrvoje; Cahill, Paul; Gilja, Gordon; Pakrashi, Vikram; Lapthorne, John; McKeogh, Eamon

    2017-04-01

    Recent advances in computational speed, cloud systems and GPRS data are some of the factors that have resulted in an increased number of operational and fully automatized Flood Early Warning Systems (FEWS). Flood forecasting is becoming a well-recognised solution for flood management as an indirect measure for minimising the risk should preventive or defence measures prove ineffective or are not feasible for implementation. Public acceptance of FEWS as a standalone solution is still considered to be at low level. Further public engagement regarding engineering risks and providing timely notifications and warnings can, however, establish the true value of such a system to the society in general. Flood risks can be direct, resulting in damage to buildings, infrastructure and natural resources, or indirect, which can be related to disaster losses leading to declines in commercial output or revenue and impact on wellbeing of people, typically from disruptions to the flow of goods and services. Flood risk and structural risks are closely related, thereby impacting the maintenance and management of bridges assets over watercourses. Many studies indicate that most bridge collapses are related to hydraulic effects and consequently scour issues (i.e. the removal of riverbed around bridge foundations due to flowing water). Consequently, hydraulic, hydrologic and geotechnical expertise and knowledge can lead to introducing FEWS as a key tool for Bridge Scour Management System (BSMS), forming a part of a BMS. The implementation of this concept was initiated with the EU/FP7 funded project BRIDGE SMS. The project introduces BSMS into the overall BMS to develop a reliable decision support tool which would efficiently manage bridge failure risks in a cost-effective way. This is accomplished through the development of FEWS, alongside monitoring systems that can provide important information about environmental and structural conditions at the catchment area and bridge site

  2. Early Warning System in ASEAN Countries Using Capital Market Index Return: Modiied Markov Regime Switching Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imam Wahyudi

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Asia's  inancial  crisis  in  July  1997  affects  currency,  capital  market,  and  real  market throughout  Asian  countries.  Countries  in  southeast  region  (ASEAN,  including  Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, are some of the countries where the crisis hit  the  most.  In  these  countries,  where  inancial  sectors  are  far  more  developed  than  real sectors  and  the  money  market  sectors,  most  of  the  economic  activities  are  conducted  in capital  market.  Movement  in  the  capital  market  could  be  a  proxy  to  describe  the  overall economic  situation  and  therefore  the  prediction  of  it  could  be  an  early  warning  system  of economic crises. This paper tries to investigate movement in ASEAN (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines,  Singapore,  and  Thailand  capital  market  to  build  an  early  warning  system from inancial sectors perspective. This paper will be very beneicial for the government to anticipate the forthcoming crisis. The insight of this paper is from Hamilton (1990 model of regime switching process in which he divide the movement of currency into two regimes, describe the switching transition based on Markov process and creates different model for each regimes. Differ from Hamilton, our research focuses on index return instead of currency to  model  the  regime  switching.  This  research  aimed  to  ind  the  probability  of  crisis  in  the future by combining the probability of switching and the probability distribution function of each  regime.  Probability  of  switching  is  estimated  by  categorizing  the  movement  in  index return  into  two  regimes  (negative  return  in  regime  1  and  positive  return  in  regime  2  then measuring  the  proportion  of  switching  to  regime  1  in  t  given  regime

  3. Implementation of a landslide early warning system based on near-real-time monitoring, multisensor mapping and geophysical measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teza, Giordano; Galgaro, Antonio; Francese, Roberto; Ninfo, Andrea; Mariani, Rocco

    2017-04-01

    An early warning system has been implemented to monitor the Perarolo di Cadore landslide (North-Eastern Italian Alps), which is a slump whose induced risk is fairly high because a slope collapse could form a temporary dam on the underlying torrent and, therefore, could directly threaten the close village. A robotic total station (RTS) measures, with 6h returning time, the positions of 23 retro-reflectors placed on the landslide upper and middle sectors. The landslide's kinematical behavior derived from these near-real-time (NRT) surface displacements is interpreted on the basis of available geomorphological and geological information, geometrical data provided by some laser scanning and photogrammetric surveys, and a landslide model obtained by means of 3D Electrical Resistivity Tomography (3D ERT) measurements. In this way, an analysis of the time series provided by RTS and a pluviometer, which cover several years, allows the definition of some pre-alert and alert kinematical and rainfall thresholds. These thresholds, as well as the corresponding operational recommendations, are currently used for early warning purposes by Authorities involved in risk management for the Perarolo landslide. It should be noted the fact that, as new RTS and pluviometric data are available, the thresholds can be updated and, therefore, a fine tuning of the early warning system can be carried out in order to improve its performance. Although the proposed approach has been implemented in a particular case, it can be used to develop an early warning system based on NRT data in each site where a landslide threatens infrastructures and/or villages that cannot be relocated.

  4. AN ARCHITECTURE FOR AUTOMATED FIRE DETECTION EARLY WARNING SYSTEM BASED ON GEOPROCESSING SERVICE COMPOSITION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Samadzadegan

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Rapidly discovering, sharing, integrating and applying geospatial information are key issues in the domain of emergency response and disaster management. Due to the distributed nature of data and processing resources in disaster management, utilizing a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA to take advantages of workflow of services provides an efficient, flexible and reliable implementations to encounter different hazardous situation. The implementation specification of the Web Processing Service (WPS has guided geospatial data processing in a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA platform to become a widely accepted solution for processing remotely sensed data on the web. This paper presents an architecture design based on OGC web services for automated workflow for acquisition, processing remotely sensed data, detecting fire and sending notifications to the authorities. A basic architecture and its building blocks for an automated fire detection early warning system are represented using web-based processing of remote sensing imageries utilizing MODIS data. A composition of WPS processes is proposed as a WPS service to extract fire events from MODIS data. Subsequently, the paper highlights the role of WPS as a middleware interface in the domain of geospatial web service technology that can be used to invoke a large variety of geoprocessing operations and chaining of other web services as an engine of composition. The applicability of proposed architecture by a real world fire event detection and notification use case is evaluated. A GeoPortal client with open-source software was developed to manage data, metadata, processes, and authorities. Investigating feasibility and benefits of proposed framework shows that this framework can be used for wide area of geospatial applications specially disaster management and environmental monitoring.

  5. An Architecture for Automated Fire Detection Early Warning System Based on Geoprocessing Service Composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samadzadegan, F.; Saber, M.; Zahmatkesh, H.; Joze Ghazi Khanlou, H.

    2013-09-01

    Rapidly discovering, sharing, integrating and applying geospatial information are key issues in the domain of emergency response and disaster management. Due to the distributed nature of data and processing resources in disaster management, utilizing a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) to take advantages of workflow of services provides an efficient, flexible and reliable implementations to encounter different hazardous situation. The implementation specification of the Web Processing Service (WPS) has guided geospatial data processing in a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) platform to become a widely accepted solution for processing remotely sensed data on the web. This paper presents an architecture design based on OGC web services for automated workflow for acquisition, processing remotely sensed data, detecting fire and sending notifications to the authorities. A basic architecture and its building blocks for an automated fire detection early warning system are represented using web-based processing of remote sensing imageries utilizing MODIS data. A composition of WPS processes is proposed as a WPS service to extract fire events from MODIS data. Subsequently, the paper highlights the role of WPS as a middleware interface in the domain of geospatial web service technology that can be used to invoke a large variety of geoprocessing operations and chaining of other web services as an engine of composition. The applicability of proposed architecture by a real world fire event detection and notification use case is evaluated. A GeoPortal client with open-source software was developed to manage data, metadata, processes, and authorities. Investigating feasibility and benefits of proposed framework shows that this framework can be used for wide area of geospatial applications specially disaster management and environmental monitoring.

  6. Integrating Low-Cost Mems Accelerometer Mini-Arrays (mama) in Earthquake Early Warning Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nof, R. N.; Chung, A. I.; Rademacher, H.; Allen, R. M.

    2016-12-01

    Current operational Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) acquire data with networks of single seismic stations, and compute source parameters assuming earthquakes to be point sources. For large events, the point-source assumption leads to an underestimation of magnitude, and the use of single stations leads to large uncertainties in the locations of events outside the network. We propose the use of mini-arrays to improve EEWS. Mini-arrays have the potential to: (a) estimate reliable hypocentral locations by beam forming (FK-analysis) techniques; (b) characterize the rupture dimensions and account for finite-source effects, leading to more reliable estimates for large magnitudes. Previously, the high price of multiple seismometers has made creating arrays cost-prohibitive. However, we propose setting up mini-arrays of a new seismometer based on low-cost (<$150), high-performance MEMS accelerometer around conventional seismic stations. The expected benefits of such an approach include decreasing alert-times, improving real-time shaking predictions and mitigating false alarms. We use low-resolution 14-bit Quake Catcher Network (QCN) data collected during Rapid Aftershock Mobilization Program (RAMP) in Christchurch, NZ following the M7.1 Darfield earthquake in September 2010. As the QCN network was so dense, we were able to use small sub-array of up to ten sensors spread along a maximum area of 1.7x2.2 km2 to demonstrate our approach and to solve for the BAZ of two events (Mw4.7 and Mw5.1) with less than ±10° error. We will also present the new 24-bit device details, benchmarks, and real-time measurements.

  7. Towards the Implementation of GPS-based Tsunami Early Warning System Using Ionospheric Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Y. M.; Komjathy, A.; Meng, X.; Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Mannucci, A. J.

    2014-12-01

    Natural hazards and solid Earth events, such as earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions are actual sources that may trigger acoustic and gravity waves resulting in traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) in the upper atmosphere. Trans-ionospheric radio wave measurements sense the total electron content (TEC) along the signal propagation path. In this research, we introduce a novel GPS-based detection and estimation technique for remote sensing of atmospheric wave-induced TIDs including space weather phenomena induced by major natural hazard events, using TEC time series collected from worldwide ground-based dual-frequency GNSS receiver networks. We will demonstrate the ability of using ground-based dual-frequency GPS measures to detect and monitor tsunami wave propagations from previous great earthquake and tsunami events including: 2011 Tohoku and 2010 Chile earthquakes and tsunamis. Two major TIDs with different propagation speeds and wavelengths were identified through analysis of the GPS remote sensing observations. Dominant physical characteristics of atmospheric wave-induced TIDs are found to be associated with specific tsunami propagations and oceanic Rayleigh waves. We compared GPS-based observations, corresponding model simulations and other geophysical measurements. Our results lead to a better understanding of the tsunami-induced ionosphere responses. In addition, we investigate ionospheric signatures caused by the 1964 Great Alaska Earthquake and tsunami using the GPS-based method. Based on current distribution of Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) GPS stations, the simulated results indicate that tsunami-induced TIDs may be detected about 60 minutes prior to tsunamis arriving at the US west coast. It is expected that this GPS-based technology becomes an integral part of future early-warning systems.

  8. Rapid and reliable seismic source characterization in earthquake early warning systems: current methodologies, results, and new perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colombelli, Simona; Zollo, Aldo

    2016-10-01

    In the present paper, we provided a review of the main principles and methodologies on which the current earthquake early warning systems are grounded and will also provide a perspective view for next future developments and improvements. First, we introduce the standard methodologies for the source characterization in earthquake early warning, with a special focus on the real-time earthquake magnitude determination. We discuss the suitability of existent methodologies and empirical regression laws for very large events. We then present the different approaches for the rapid prediction of the ground shaking and of the potential damaged zone, both based on traditional seismic data and on the use of continuous GPS data. Finally, the last part of the paper provides the perspective view toward a next generation of early warning systems, linking new research achievements about the earthquake rupture nucleation and the development of new methods/technologies aimed at a fast and high-resolution, real-time modeling of the ongoing source process and accurate prediction of the quake shaking at the regional and local scale.

  9. Landslide management through the design and implementation of an early warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Intrieri, E.; Gigli, G.; Mugnai, F.; Fanti, R.; Casagli, N.

    2012-04-01

    Within the framework of landslide management, early warning systems (EWSs) are an alternative and cost-effective means to reduce the risk with a low environmental and economical impact. In some cases they can even be the only solution, for instance when a landslide is so large that it cannot possibly be stabilized, when in an area there are too many unstable slopes and there are not enough financial resources to take care of them all individually, or when the residual risk after remediation works is still unacceptable. An EWS for a rockslide (at Torgiovannetto, Central Italy) has been designed after a period during which monitoring, landslide characterization and the definition of risk scenarios have been carried out. It consists in a 182 000 m3 rock wedge threatening two roads which are important for local transportation. The present work encompasses and describes all the components of the EWS, including the geological knowledge, the risk scenarios, the kinematic characterization of the landslide, the choice and installation of the monitoring system, the setting of appropriate alarm levels, the definition of plans of civil protection and so on. The focus is on practical and logistical issues met in all these phases and the counter-measures adopted. At present the system consists in 13 wire extensometers, 1 thermometer, 1 rain gauge and 3 cameras, in part connected through a wireless sensor network. Should a velocity threshold be exceeded by two or more sensors, the attention level would be entered, causing improved monitoring and surveillance. In case the behaviour of the landslide changes and, by using expert judgement and forecasting methods, an imminent failure is hinted, then an alarm is issued and the upper road is closed. The EWS has been designed by stressing the importance of redundancy, simplicity, communication and minimizing the probability of false alarms. Although site-specific, this system can be useful when facing similar situations, in particular

  10. ALERTES-SC3 Early Warning System prototype for South Iberian Peninsula: on-site approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pazos, Antonio; Lopez de Mesa, Mireya; Gallego Carrasco, Javier; Martín Davila, José; Rioja del Rio, Carlos; Morgado, Arturo; Vera, Angel; Ciberia, Angel; Cabieces, Roberto; Strollo, Angelo; Hanka, Winfried; Carranza, Marta

    2016-04-01

    In recent years several Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) have been developed for different parts of the world. The area between SW Cape St. Vicente and the Strait of Gibraltar is one of the most seismically active zones in the Ibero-Maghrebian region, with predominantly moderate and superficial seismicity, but also big events with associated tsunamis are well documented in the area, like the 1755 Lisbon earthquake. In the frame of the ALERT-ES (2011-2013) and ALERTES-RIM (2014-2016) Spanish projects, the ALERTES-SC3 EEWS, regional approach, prototype has been developed at the Royal Spanish Navy Observatory (ROA) and is being tested in near real time for south Iberia. This prototype, based on the SeisComP3 software package, is largely based on algorithms derived from the analysis of the first seconds of the P wave records. Calculation of several parameters are carried out, mainly the characteristic period (τc) and the displacement peak (Pd), but also the velocity peak (Pv), the maximum period (τPmáx), among others. In order to warm the areas closest to the hypocentre, places located inside the "blind zone", a on-site EEWS has also been developed by ROA and integrated in the ALERTES-SC3 prototype. From the on-site approach, a warm level is declared from one station as a function of the estimated characteristic period (τc) and the displacement Peak (Pd), although the earthquake location and therefore the lead time available remains unknown. This on-site EEWS is being tested in several Western Mediterranean net (WM) stations as ARNO (Arenosillo, Huelva,Spain) or CHAS (Chafarinas island, North Africa, Spain). Also an on-site low cost station is being developed based in low cost accelerometers. In this work the current state of the on-site EEWS developed, its integration in the ALERTES-SC3 EEWS system and the low cost seismic stations are shown.

  11. Testing of the INGV Prototype Tsunami Early Warning System for the Coasts of Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorito, Stefano; Piatanesi, Alessio; Romano, Fabrizio

    2010-05-01

    In the framework of the agreement between Italian Civil Protection and INGV (DPC-S3 project), we are studying the feasibility of a Tsunami Early Warning System (TEWS) for the coasts of Italy. The underlying concept is borrowed, as a starting point, from the Japan Meteorological Agency's TEWS. Some differences arise, however, due to the specificity of the Mediterranean context, as well as due to the reduced possibility of fast direct measurements of the tsunami waves eventually generated. The prototype system is based on a set of elementary submarine earthquake sources, plus a set of scaling laws of the tsunami height with respect to source parameters. In case of an earthquake, according to information released by the INGV seismic center (epicenter, depth, and magnitude), the pre-calculated wave heights produced by each elementary source must be interpolated to evaluate if a significant tsunami could have been generated, and where it will likely hit the coastlines more severely, in order to launch a proper alert. We start by considering a grid of nine epicenters on a 20x20 km square in front of the Algeria coast, and potentially threatening the southern Sardinia coast. At the moment, the geometry of the faults (strike, dip, rake) is keep fixed, while we consider for each of the epicenters several different depths and magnitudes. The (empirical) scaling laws that serve as a guidance for the interpolation are instead derived numerically for a wider range of earthquake parameters. The performances of the prototype have been evaluated both by means of synthetic earthquakes (by simulating hundreds of earthquakes falling in the prototype grid), and by using an ad-hoc database around the epicenter of a real earthquake, which generated a moderate tsunami in the western Mediterranean (the Mw=6.9 May 2003 Boumerdes-Zemmouri earthquake, Algeria). The synthetic tests also serve to assess the uncertainties that will be attached to the forecasts issued, directly descending from

  12. Development of Safe Taiwan Information System (SATIS for Typhoon Early Warning in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Ray Su

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Due to the particular geographical location and geological condition, Taiwan is constantly attacked by typhoons, flood, landslides, debris flows, and earthquakes. Those natural hazards had caused huge loss of lives and properties. To reduce the damages and losses caused by the natural hazards, an integrated and complete decision support system for decision makers is necessary. In this study, Safe Taiwan information system (SATIS, which includes two subsystems, response operation subsystem for staff members and decision support subsystem for commanders, is developed for preparedness and response of typhoon hazards. It is based on the Web- GIS framework that the disaster information can be distributed via internet technology. When typhoon is approaching, response operation subsystem is used by National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR staffs to integrate real-time monitoring information, hazard models and graphical user interfaces to analyze and manage the disaster information such as the current position and possible path of typhoon, the spatial distribution of rainfalls, and potential areas of flooding, landslides and debris flows. The input data of this subsystem includes the basic maps, the real-time information of typhoon and rainfall issued by the Central Weather Bureau, the real-time water information from the Water Resources Agency, and the hazard maps indicating areas of potential landslide, debris flow and flooding made by NCDR herself to estimate endangered areas under the current typhoon. There are four main modules integrated into the subsystem including the rainfall monitoring and forecasting, the estimation of potential inundation areas, the estimation of potential landslide and debris flows, and the management of disaster information. The results of hazard risk analysis which include potential rainfall distribution, inundation and landslide risk areas, early warning messages, and total suggestion over the

  13. Development of Safe Taiwan Information System (SATIS for Typhoon Early Warning in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Ray Su

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Due to the particular geographical location and geological condition, Taiwan is constantly attacked by typhoons, flood, landslides, debris flows, and earthquakes. Those natural hazards had caused huge loss of lives and properties. To reduce the damages and losses caused by the natural hazards, an integrated and complete decision support system for decision makers is necessary. In this study, Safe Taiwan information system (SATIS, which includes two subsystems, response operation subsystem for staff members and decision support subsystem for commanders, is developed for preparedness and response of typhoon hazards. It is based on the Web- GIS framework that the disaster information can be distributed via internet technology. When typhoon is approaching, response operation subsystem is used by National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR staffs to integrate real-time monitoring information, hazard models and graphical user interfaces to analyze and manage the disaster information such as the current position and possible path of typhoon, the spatial distribution of rainfalls, and potential areas of flooding, landslides and debris flows. The input data of this subsystem includes the basic maps, the real-time information of typhoon and rainfall issued by the Central Weather Bureau, the real-time water information from the Water Resources Agency, and the hazard maps indicating areas of potential landslide, debris flow and flooding made by NCDR herself to estimate endangered areas under the current typhoon. There are four main modules integrated into the subsystem including the rainfall monitoring and forecasting, the estimation of potential inundation areas, the estimation of potential landslide and debris flows, and the management of disaster information. The results of hazard risk analysis which include potential rainfall distribution, inundation and landslide risk areas, early warning messages, and total suggestion over the

  14. Decision Support Systems and Early Warning Solutions: a review in European context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortes, V. J.; Frigerio, S.; Schenato, L.; Sterlacchini, S.; Pasuto, A.

    2012-04-01

    According to the aim of the CHANGES network, an EU funded project, research is carried out towards the improvement of the emergency management strategies for hydro-meteorological hazards under the effects of climate and the pressure of socio-economic changes. Aim supported on the need to enhance local resilience to these hazards under different scenarios, if possible by means of a multi-disciplinary and multi-hazard approach. Both requirements recognized on the scientific and practical community. In this context, the current management of hydro-meteorological hazards have posed some difficulties due to the complexity of the phenomena and the processes associated. These impacts, usually developed as a domino effect are still not properly understood and require a management strategy that combines active and passive mitigation measures. On the other hand, the every time most destructive effect of these hazards and the available information and communication techniques has also stressed the responsible authorities to prepare, develop and implement more effective safeguard plans. Finally, a combined approach to this situation depicts a research way by integrating the development and implementation of early warning systems (EWS) and contingency plans (CP), which is generally constricted by the state-of-art and particular conditions for the assessment of hazards in place. Consequently, here is presented a review of Decision Support Systems (DSS) and EWS on hydrometeorological hazards such as flash floods, debris flows and landslides as a starting point for such a research initiative. Identification of common and basic features, advantages and disadvantages are expected to derive some elements for possible developments. The review is carried from the key conclusions and recommendations identified with past experiences of testing and developing a common platform; which generally comprises workflow management modules encrypted in a DSS with GIS interface and communication

  15. A General Introduction of the Earthquake Early Warning System Technology Developed in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, T.

    2015-12-01

    Since the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, a dramatic progress on earthquake early warning (EEW) has been made by Institute of Care-life (ICL) in China. The research on EEW by ICL covers choosing appropriate sensors, methods of installing the sensors, data automatic process methods of the seismic waves for EEW, methods of applying of EEW warnings for public, schools and life-line projects. ICL innovatively applies distributed computing and cloud computing technology. So far, ICL has deployed over 5500 EEW sensors in China, which is 5 times the number of EEW sensors in Japan, covering more than 2.1 million square kilometers. Since June, 2011, over 5000 earthquakes, with 28 of them are destructive quakes, have triggered the EEWS with no false alert. The root mean square (RMS) error of the magnitude for the 28 destructive quakes is 0.32. In addition, innovative work is done to suppress false alarm and miss alarm, which pushes forward the application of EEW in China. The technology is also being applied in Nepal now.

  16. Urban flood early warning systems: approaches to hydrometeorological forecasting and communicating risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cranston, Michael; Speight, Linda; Maxey, Richard; Tavendale, Amy; Buchanan, Peter

    2015-04-01

    One of the main challenges for the flood forecasting community remains the provision of reliable early warnings of surface (or pluvial) flooding. The Scottish Flood Forecasting Service has been developing approaches for forecasting the risk of surface water flooding including capitalising on the latest developments in quantitative precipitation forecasting from the Met Office. A probabilistic Heavy Rainfall Alert decision support tool helps operational forecasters assess the likelihood of surface water flooding against regional rainfall depth-duration estimates from MOGREPS-UK linked to historical short-duration flooding in Scotland. The surface water flood risk is communicated through the daily Flood Guidance Statement to emergency responders. A more recent development is an innovative risk-based hydrometeorological approach that links 24-hour ensemble rainfall forecasts through a hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) to a library of impact assessments (Speight et al., 2015). The early warning tool - FEWS Glasgow - presents the risk of flooding to people, property and transport across a 1km grid over the city of Glasgow with a lead time of 24 hours. Communication of the risk was presented in a bespoke surface water flood forecast product designed based on emergency responder requirements and trialled during the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow. The development of new approaches to surface water flood forecasting are leading to improved methods of communicating the risk and better performance in early warning with a reduction in false alarm rates with summer flood guidance in 2014 (67%) compared to 2013 (81%) - although verification of instances of surface water flooding remains difficult. However the introduction of more demanding hydrometeorological capabilities with associated greater levels of uncertainty does lead to an increased demand on operational flood forecasting skills and resources. Speight, L., Cole, S.J., Moore, R.J., Pierce, C., Wright, B., Golding, B

  17. Exploring drought vulnerability in Africa: an indicator based analysis to be used in early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naumann, G.; Barbosa, P.; Garrote, L.; Iglesias, A.; Vogt, J.

    2014-05-01

    compared with drought disaster information from the EM-DAT disaster database. Even if a cause-effect relationship cannot be established between the DVI and the drought disaster database, a good agreement is observed between the drought vulnerability maps and the number of persons affected by droughts. These results are expected to contribute to the discussion on how to assess drought vulnerability and hopefully contribute to the development of drought early warning systems in Africa.

  18. An innovative early warning system for floods and operational risks in harbours

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smets, Steven; Bolle, Annelies; Mollaert, Justine; Buitrago, Saul; Gruwez, Vincent

    2016-04-01

    Early Warning Systems (EWS) are nowadays becoming fairly standard in river flood forecasting or in large scale hydrometeorological predictions. For complex coastal morphodynamic problems or in the vicinity of complex coastal structures, such as harbours, EWS are much less used because they are both technically and computationally still very challenging. To advance beyond the state-of-the-art, the EU FP7 project Risc-KIT (www.risc-kit.eu) is developing prototype EWS which address specifically these topics. This paper describes the prototype EWS which IMDC has developed for the case study site of the harbour of Zeebrugge. The harbour of Zeebrugge is the largest industrial seaport on the coast of Belgium, extending more than 3 km into the sea. Two long breakwaters provide shelter for the inner quays and docks for regular conditions and frequent storms. Extreme storms surges and waves can however still enter the harbour and create risks for the harbour operations and infrastructure. The prediction of the effects of storm surges and waves inside harbours are typically very complex and challenging, due to the need of different types of numerical models for representing all different physical processes. In general, waves inside harbours are a combination of locally wind generated waves and offshore wave penetration at the port entrance. During extreme conditions, the waves could overtop the quays and breakwaters and flood the port facilities. Outside a prediction environment, the conditions inside the harbour could be assessed by superimposing processes. The assessment can be carried out by using a combination of a spectral wave model (i.e. SWAN) for the wind generated waves and a Boussinesq type wave model (i.e. Mike 21 BW) for the wave penetration from offshore. Finally, a 2D hydrodynamic model (i.e. TELEMAC) can be used to simulate the overland flooding inside the port facilities. To reproduce these processes in an EWS environment, an additional challenge is to cope

  19. Research on early warning of food security using a system dynamics model: evidence from Jiangsu province in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jianling; Ding, Yi

    2015-01-01

    Analyzing the early warning of food security, this paper sets the self-sufficiency rate as the principal indicator in a standpoint of supplement. It is common to use the quantitative methods to forecast and warning the insecurity. However, this paper considers more about the probable outcome when the government intervenes. By constructing the causal feedbacks among grain supplement, demand, productive input, and the policy factors to simulate the future food security in Jiangsu province, conclusions can be drawn as the following: (1) The situation of food security is insecure if the self-sufficiency rate is under 68.3% according to the development of system inertia. (2) it is difficult to guarantee the food security in Jiangsu just depending on the increase of grain sown area. (3) The valid solution to ensure the food security in Jiangsu is to improve the productivity.

  20. An early warning system for IPM-based rodent control in smallholder farming systems in Tanzania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mwanjabe, Patrick S.; Leirs, Herwig

    1997-01-01

    We conducted a four-year study in Tanzania to test a method for predicting outbreaks of Mastomys natalensis rats and verify whether such method, based on rainfall variability, could be used in an integrated Pest Management strategy for rodent control. Temporal fluctuations in rodent numbers...... that the effects of a single control action undertaken at planting time do not persist long enough to protect seedlings, probably due to quick reinvasion of the treated fields by rodents from the surroundings. These observations are formulated into a rodent control package whose steps are to predict rodent...... outbreaks, to warn farmers and the government of the outbreaks, and to organise control measures in advance....

  1. QuakeUp: An advanced tool for a network-based Earthquake Early Warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zollo, Aldo; Colombelli, Simona; Caruso, Alessandro; Elia, Luca; Brondi, Piero; Emolo, Antonio; Festa, Gaetano; Martino, Claudio; Picozzi, Matteo

    2017-04-01

    The currently developed and operational Earthquake Early warning, regional systems ground on the assumption of a point-like earthquake source model and 1-D ground motion prediction equations to estimate the earthquake impact. Here we propose a new network-based method which allows for issuing an alert based upon the real-time mapping of the Potential Damage Zone (PDZ), e.g. the epicentral area where the peak ground velocity is expected to exceed the damaging or strong shaking levels with no assumption about the earthquake rupture extent and spatial variability of ground motion. The platform includes the most advanced techniques for a refined estimation of the main source parameters (earthquake location and magnitude) and for an accurate prediction of the expected ground shaking level. The new software platform (QuakeUp) is under development at the Seismological Laboratory (RISSC-Lab) of the Department of Physics at the University of Naples Federico II, in collaboration with the academic spin-off company RISS s.r.l., recently gemmated by the research group. The system processes the 3-component, real-time ground acceleration and velocity data streams at each station. The signal quality is preliminary assessed by checking the signal-to-noise ratio both in acceleration, velocity and displacement and through dedicated filtering algorithms. For stations providing high quality data, the characteristic P-wave period (τ_c) and the P-wave displacement, velocity and acceleration amplitudes (P_d, Pv and P_a) are jointly measured on a progressively expanded P-wave time window. The evolutionary measurements of the early P-wave amplitude and characteristic period at stations around the source allow to predict the geometry and extent of PDZ, but also of the lower shaking intensity regions at larger epicentral distances. This is done by correlating the measured P-wave amplitude with the Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) and Instrumental Intensity (I_MM) and by mapping the measured and

  2. Earthquake Drill using the Earthquake Early Warning System at an Elementary School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oki, Satoko; Yazaki, Yoshiaki; Koketsu, Kazuki

    2010-05-01

    economic repercussion. We provide the school kids with the "World Seismicity Map" to let them realize that earthquake disasters take place unequally. Then we let the kids jump in front of the seismometer with projecting the real-time data to the wall. Grouped kids contest the largest amplitude by carefully considering how to jump high but nail the landing with their teammates. Their jumps are printed out via portable printer and compared with the real earthquake which occurred even 600km away but still huge when printed out in the same scale. Actually, a magnitude 7 earthquake recorded 600km away needs an A0 paper when scaled with a jump of 10 kids printed in an A4 paper. They've got to understand what to do not to be killed with the great big energy. We also offer earthquake drills using the Earthquake Early Warning System (EEW System). An EEW System is officially introduced in 2007 by JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) to issue prompt alerts to provide several to several ten seconds before S-wave arrives. When hearing the alarm, school kids think fast to find a place to protect themselves. It is not always when they are in their classrooms but in the chemical lab, music room which does not have any desks to protect them, or in the PE class. Then in the science class, we demonstrate how the EEW System works. A 8m long wave propagation device made with spindles connected with springs is used to visualize the P- and S-waves. In the presentation, we would like to show the paper materials and sufficient movies.

  3. Towards the Adriatic meteotsunami early warning system: modelling strategy and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denamiel, Clea; Šepić, Jadranka; Vilibić, Ivica

    2017-04-01

    Destructive meteotsunamis are known to occur along the eastern Adriatic coastal areas and islands (Vilibić and Šepić, 2009). The temporal lag between the offshore generation of meteotsunamis due to specific atmospheric conditions and the arrival of a dangerous nearshore propagating wave at known locations is of the order of tens of minutes to a couple of hours. In order to reduce the coastal risk for the coastal communities, an early warning system must rely on the ability to detect these extreme storms offshore with in-situ measurements and to predict the hydrodynamic response nearshore via numerical models within this short time lag. However, the numerical modelling of meteotsunamis requires both temporal and spatial high-resolution atmospheric and ocean models which are highly demanding concerning time and computer resources. Furthermore, both a multi-model approach and an ensemble modelling strategy should be used to better forecast the distribution of the nearshore impact of meteotsunamis. The modelling strategy used in this study thus rely on the development of an operational atmosphere-ocean model of the Adriatic Sea at 1km spatial resolution based on the state-of-the-art fully coupled COAWST model (Warner et al., 2010). The model allows for generation of meteotsunamis offshore, while various high-resolution (up to 5m) nearshore hydrodynamic models (such as ADCIRC - Luettich and Westerink, 1991; SELFE - Zhang et al., 2008 and GeoClaw - LeVeque, 2012) are setup to properly reproduce meteotsunami dynamics of the entire Croatian coastal areas, which are characterized by a great number of islands, channels and bays. The implementation and validation of each component of this modelling system is first undertaken for the well documented meteotsunami event (Šepić et al., 2016), which was recorded along the Croatian Adriatic coast on the 25th and the 26th of June 2014. The validation of the modelling strategy as well as the model results is presented and

  4. [Study on early-warning of Chinese materia medica price base on ARMA model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Feng; Mao, Yang-Dui

    2014-05-01

    This study sets up an early-warning system framework of Chinese materia medica price, using price index as early warning indicator to establish black early-warning model, with indicator of price index volatility and limit line of "price principal". The research divides warning degree into 5 parts named negative heavy warning, negative light warning, no warning, positive light warning and positive heavy warning, with 5 corresponding lights to describe the change level of the medicine price. Then make an early-warning empirical research based on Chengdu Chinese materia medica price index from December in 2010 to October in 2013. ARMA model is applied to forecast index and the result of early-warning is analyzed, and finally farmer households, companies, customers and the government are recommended respectively.

  5. Famines in Africa: is early warning early enough?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeeyon Janet Kim

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Following the second Sahelian famine in 1984–1985, major investments were made to establish Early Warning Systems. These systems help to ensure that timely warnings and vulnerability information are available to decision makers to anticipate and avert food crises. In the recent crisis in the Horn of Africa, alarming levels of acute malnutrition were documented from March 2010, and by August 2010, an impending food crisis was forecast. Despite these measures, the situation remained unrecognised, and further deteriorated causing malnutrition levels to grow in severity and scope. By the time the United Nations officially declared famine on 20 July 2011, and the humanitarian community sluggishly went into response mode, levels of malnutrition and mortality exceeded catastrophic levels. At this time, an estimated 11 million people were in desperate and immediate need for food. With warnings of food crises in the Sahel, South Sudan, and forecast of the drought returning to the Horn, there is an immediate need to institutionalize change in the health response during humanitarian emergencies. Early warning systems are only effective if they trigger an early response.

  6. China agricultural outlook for 2015-2024 based on China Agricultural Monitoring and Early-warning System (CAMES)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Shi-wei[1,2,3; LI Gan-qiong[1,2,3; LI Zhe-min[1,2,3

    2015-01-01

    The primary goal of Chinese agricultural development is to guarantee national food security and supply of major agricultural products. Hence, the scientific work on agricultural monitoring and early warning as well as agricultural outlook must be strengthened. In this study, we develop the China Agricultural Monitoring and Early-warning System (CAMES) on the basis of a comparative study of domestic and international agricultural outlook models. The system is a dynamic and multi-market partial equilibrium model that integrates biological mechanisms with economic mechanisms. This system, which includes 11 categories of 953 kinds of agricultural products, could dynamically project agricultural market supply and demand, assess food security, and conduct scenario analysis at different spatial levels, time scale levels, and macro-micro levels. Based on the CAMES, the production, consumption, and trade of the major agricultural products in China over the next decade are projected. The following conclusions are drawn: i) The production of major agricultural products will continue to grow steadily, mainly because of the increase in yield, ii) The growth of agricultural consumption will be slightly higher than that of agricultural production. Meanwhile, a high self-sufficiency rate is expected for cereals such as rice, wheat, and maize, with the rate being stable at around 97%. iii) Agricultural trade will continue to thrive. The growth of soybean and milk im- ports will slow down, but the growth of traditional agricultural exports such as vegetables and fruits is expected to continue.

  7. China agricultural outlook for 2015-2024 based on China Agricultural Monitoring and Early-warning System (CAMES)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Shi-wei; LI Gan-qiong; LI Zhe-min

    2015-01-01

    The primary goal of Chinese agricultural development is to guarantee national food security and supply of major agricultural products. Hence, the scientiifc work on agricultural monitoring and early warning as wel as agricultural outlook must be strengthened. In this study, we develop the China Agricultural Monitoring and Early-warning System (CAMES) on the basis of a comparative study of domestic and international agricultural outlook models. The system is a dynamic and multi-market partial equilibrium model that integrates biological mechanisms with economic mechanisms. This system, which includes 11 categories of 953 kinds of agricultural products, could dynamical y project agricultural market supply and demand, assess food security, and conduct scenario analysis at different spatial levels, time scale levels, and macro-micro levels. Based on the CAMES, the production, consumption, and trade of the major agricultural products in China over the next decade are projected. The fol owing conclusions are drawn:i) The production of major agricultural products wil continue to grow steadily, mainly because of the increase in yield. i ) The growth of agricultural consumption wil be slightly higher than that of agricultural production. Meanwhile, a high self-sufifciency rate is expected for cereals such as rice, wheat, and maize, with the rate being stable at around 97%. i i) Agricultural trade wil continue to thrive. The growth of soybean and milk im-ports wil slow down, but the growth of traditional agricultural exports such as vegetables and fruits is expected to continue.

  8. Crowd-Sourced Global Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minson, S. E.; Brooks, B. A.; Glennie, C. L.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Owen, S. E.; Iannucci, B. A.; Hauser, D. L.

    2014-12-01

    Although earthquake early warning (EEW) has shown great promise for reducing loss of life and property, it has only been implemented in a few regions due, in part, to the prohibitive cost of building the required dense seismic and geodetic networks. However, many cars and consumer smartphones, tablets, laptops, and similar devices contain low-cost versions of the same sensors used for earthquake monitoring. If a workable EEW system could be implemented based on either crowd-sourced observations from consumer devices or very inexpensive networks of instruments built from consumer-quality sensors, EEW coverage could potentially be expanded worldwide. Controlled tests of several accelerometers and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers typically found in consumer devices show that, while they are significantly noisier than scientific-grade instruments, they are still accurate enough to capture displacements from moderate and large magnitude earthquakes. The accuracy of these sensors varies greatly depending on the type of data collected. Raw coarse acquisition (C/A) code GPS data are relatively noisy. These observations have a surface displacement detection threshold approaching ~1 m and would thus only be useful in large Mw 8+ earthquakes. However, incorporating either satellite-based differential corrections or using a Kalman filter to combine the raw GNSS data with low-cost acceleration data (such as from a smartphone) decreases the noise dramatically. These approaches allow detection thresholds as low as 5 cm, potentially enabling accurate warnings for earthquakes as small as Mw 6.5. Simulated performance tests show that, with data contributed from only a very small fraction of the population, a crowd-sourced EEW system would be capable of warning San Francisco and San Jose of a Mw 7 rupture on California's Hayward fault and could have accurately issued both earthquake and tsunami warnings for the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake.

  9. A Walk through TRIDEC's intermediate Tsunami Early Warning System for the Turkish and Portuguese NEAMWave12 exercise tsunami scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammitzsch, Martin; Lendholt, Matthias; Reißland, Sven; Schulz, Jana

    2013-04-01

    the ICG/NEAMTWS NEAMWave12 exercise for the Turkish and Portuguese tsunami exercise scenarios. Impressions gained with the standards compliant TRIDEC system during the exercise will be reported. The system version presented is based on event-driven architecture (EDA) and service-oriented architecture (SOA) concepts and is making use of relevant standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS). In this way the system continuously gathers, processes and displays events and data coming from open sensor platforms to enable operators to quickly decide whether an early warning is necessary and to send personalized warning messages to the authorities and the population at large through a wide range of communication channels. The system integrates OGC Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) compliant sensor systems for the rapid detection of hazardous events, like earthquakes, sea level anomalies, ocean floor occurrences, and ground displacements. Using OGC Web Map Service (WMS) and Web Feature Service (WFS) spatial data are utilized to depict the situation picture. The integration of a simulation system to identify affected areas is considered using the OGC Web Processing Service (WPS). Warning messages are compiled and transmitted in the OASIS Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) together with addressing information defined via the OASIS Emergency Data Exchange Language - Distribution Element (EDXL-DE). This demonstration is linked with the talk 'Experiences with TRIDEC's Crisis Management Demonstrator in the Turkish NEAMWave12 exercise tsunami scenario' (EGU2013-2833) given in the session "Architecture of Future Tsunami Warning Systems" (NH5.6).

  10. Lessons learnt from an international intercomparison of national network systems used to provide early warning of a nuclear accident

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saez-Vergara, J.C.; Thompson, I.M.G.; Funck, E.;

    2003-01-01

    and at the Underground Laboratory for Dosimetry and Spectrometry (UDO) of the Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB) in Germany. The network systems are used continuously to monitor radiation levels throughout a country in order to give early warning of nuclear accidents having transboundary implications......As part of the European Research Council's Fourth Framework Programme, the EURADOS Action Group on Monitoring of External Exposures held an intercomparison of national network systems. This took place during May/June 1999 at the Riso Natural Environmental Radiation Measurement Station in Denmark....... The radiation levels measured are used to estimate the radiation risks to people arising from the accident. Seven European countries participated in the intercomparison with detector systems used in their national network systems as well as with detectors being developed for future use. Since different...

  11. Imperfect implementation of an early warning scoring system in a Danish teaching hospital: a cross-sectional study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Niegsch

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In 2007, the initiation of a patient safety campaign led to the introduction of Ward Observational Charts (WOC and Medical Early Warning Score (MEWS at Naestved Regional Hospital. This included systematic measuring of vital signs of all patients in order to prevent patient deterioration and assure timely and correct initiation of treatment. The aim of this study was to assess to what degree WOC guidelines being followed by ward staff. DESIGN AND SETTING: A 7-day prospective, observational, randomised, cross-sectional, point prevalence study of WOC guideline compliance in hospitalised patients on twelve wards at Naestved Hospital. RESULTS: The study included 132 patients. Of these, 58% had been observed and managed correctly according to WOC guidelines. 77% had all MEWS elements recorded by staff. One patient had no MEWS elements recorded. Only 38% of patients with abnormal MEWS were correctly escalated by nursing staff. Staff was aware of the abnormal MEWS observed by investigator in 60% of the patients. Each element of WOC was on average recorded by staff in 90% of the patients. CONCLUSION: At the time of our study, the long-term implementation of WOC guidelines has not been completed satisfactorily. The lacking component in the implementation of MEWS and WOC is the documentation of action taken upon finding an abnormal value. Unsuccessful implementation could result in incorrect results from evaluation of an early warning system. We suggest a redesign of the training programme to educate staff in recognising and caring for critically ill patients at Naestved Hospital.

  12. Historical telecommunication in the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayas: An ancient early warning system for glacier lake outbursts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iturrizaga, Lasafam

    2016-04-01

    Mountain societies are in a crucial transition phase in terms of the management of natural hazards. Advances in geographic technologies, such as a variety of remote-sensing tools and mobile communication systems, have drastically changed the way of early warning methods in difficult accessible high mountain environments compared to those of ancient times. In order to implement new natural hazard policies, it is essential to unravel the traditional ways of disaster management which is presented here by a case study from the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayas. In the rugged relief of the Himalaya Region, the exchange of information was a labor-intensive and time-consuming task for remote high mountain villages before the infrastructural development and the introduction of modern communication systems. Therefore, early warning of natural hazards with long run-out distances seems to have been rather impossible. However, in the present study a historical optical long-distance and fast operating communication system over horizontal distances of several hundred kilometers was discovered during field investigations in the Hindukush-Karakoram and the transmission paths reconstructed in the following years. The so called Puberanch-system relied on a chain of fire signals as used by ancient societies in other mountain and coastal environments in the world. It was originally in use for the alert against war attacks from hostile neighboring communities. Later on, it served as an early warning system for glacier lake outbursts, which have been in the end of the 19th century and beginning of the 20th century one of the most devastating natural hazards in the region. Remarkable is the fact that fire posts were located in extremely harsh environments at altitudes above 4000 m requiring a highly sophisticated supply system of fire wood and food. Interviews with local inhabitants, the evaluation of historical travel records and international newspapers proved, that the system has been

  13. Complex Nucleation Process of Large North Chile Earthquakes, Implications for Early Warning Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz, S.; Meneses, G.; Sobiesiak, M.; Madariaga, R. I.

    2014-12-01

    We studied the nucleation process of Northern Chile events that included the large earthquakes of Tocopilla 2007 Mw 7.8 and Iquique 2014 Mw 8.1, as well as the background seismicity recorded from 2011 to 2013 by the ILN temporary network and the IPOC and CSN permanent networks. We built our catalogue of 393 events starting from the CSN catalogue, which has a completeness of magnitude Mw > 3.0 in Northern Chile. We re-located and computed moment magnitude for each event. We also computed Early Warning (EW) parameters - Pd, Pv, τc and IV2 - for each event including 13 earthquakes of Mw>6.0 that occurred between 2007-2012. We also included part of the seismicity from March-April 2014 period. We find that Pd, Pv and IV2 are good estimators of magnitude for interplate thrust and intraplate intermediate depth events with Mw between 4.0 and 6.0. However, the larger magnitude events show a saturation of the EW parameters. The Tocopilla 2007 and Iquique 2014 earthquake sequences were studied in detail. Almost all events with Mw>6.0 present precursory signals so that the largest amplitudes occur several seconds after the first P wave arrival. The recent Mw 8.1 Iquique 2014 earthquake was preceded by low amplitude P waves for 20 s before the main asperity was broken. The magnitude estimation can improve if we consider longer P wave windows in the estimation of EW parameters. There was, however, a practical limit during the Iquique earthquake because the first S waves arrived before the arrival of the P waves from the main rupture. The 4 s P-wave Pd parameter estimated Mw 7.1 for the Mw 8.1 Iquique 2014 earthquake and Mw 7.5 for the Mw 7.8 Tocopilla 2007 earthquake.

  14. Implementation of Malaria Dynamic Models in Municipality Level Early Warning Systems in Colombia. Part I: Description of Study Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz, Daniel; Cerón, Viviana; Molina, Adriana M.; Quiñónes, Martha L.; Jiménez, Mónica M.; Ahumada, Martha; Gutiérrez, Patricia; Osorio, Salua; Mantilla, Gilma; Connor, Stephen J.; Thomson, Madeleine C.

    2014-01-01

    As part of the Integrated National Adaptation Pilot project and the Integrated Surveillance and Control System, the Colombian National Institute of Health is working on the design and implementation of a Malaria Early Warning System framework, supported by seasonal climate forecasting capabilities, weather and environmental monitoring, and malaria statistical and dynamic models. In this report, we provide an overview of the local ecoepidemiologic settings where four malaria process-based mathematical models are currently being implemented at a municipal level. The description includes general characteristics, malaria situation (predominant type of infection, malaria-positive cases data, malaria incidence, and seasonality), entomologic conditions (primary and secondary vectors, mosquito densities, and feeding frequencies), climatic conditions (climatology and long-term trends), key drivers of epidemic outbreaks, and non-climatic factors (populations at risk, control campaigns, and socioeconomic conditions). Selected pilot sites exhibit different ecoepidemiologic settings that must be taken into account in the development of the integrated surveillance and control system. PMID:24891460

  15. Adapting the EDuMaP method to test the performance of the Norwegian early warning system for weather-induced landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piciullo, Luca; Dahl, Mads-Peter; Devoli, Graziella; Colleuille, Hervé; Calvello, Michele

    2017-06-01

    The Norwegian national landslide early warning system (LEWS), operational since 2013, is managed by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate and was designed for monitoring and forecasting the hydrometeorological conditions potentially triggering slope failures. Decision-making in the LEWS is based upon rainfall thresholds, hydrometeorological and real-time landslide observations as well as on landslide inventory and susceptibility maps. Daily alerts are issued throughout the country considering variable size warning zones. Warnings are issued once per day for the following 3 days and can be updated according to weather forecasts and information gathered by the monitoring network. The performance of the LEWS operational in Norway has been evaluated applying the EDuMaP method, which is based on the computation of a duration matrix relating number of landslides and warning levels issued in a warning zone. In the past, this method has been exclusively employed to analyse the performance of regional early warning models considering fixed warning zones. Herein, an original approach is proposed for the computation of the elements of the duration matrix in the case of early warning models issuing alerts on variable size areas. The approach has been used to evaluate the warnings issued in Western Norway, in the period 2013-2014, considering two datasets of landslides. The results indicate that the landslide datasets do not significantly influence the performance evaluation, although a slightly better performance is registered for the smallest dataset. Different performance results are observed as a function of the values adopted for one of the most important input parameters of EDuMaP, the landslide density criterion (i.e. setting the thresholds to differentiate among classes of landslide events). To investigate this issue, a parametric analysis has been conducted; the results of the analysis show significant differences among computed performances when

  16. Adapting the EDuMaP method to test the performance of the Norwegian early warning system for weather-induced landslides

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Piciullo

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The Norwegian national landslide early warning system (LEWS, operational since 2013, is managed by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate and was designed for monitoring and forecasting the hydrometeorological conditions potentially triggering slope failures. Decision-making in the LEWS is based upon rainfall thresholds, hydrometeorological and real-time landslide observations as well as on landslide inventory and susceptibility maps. Daily alerts are issued throughout the country considering variable size warning zones. Warnings are issued once per day for the following 3 days and can be updated according to weather forecasts and information gathered by the monitoring network. The performance of the LEWS operational in Norway has been evaluated applying the EDuMaP method, which is based on the computation of a duration matrix relating number of landslides and warning levels issued in a warning zone. In the past, this method has been exclusively employed to analyse the performance of regional early warning models considering fixed warning zones. Herein, an original approach is proposed for the computation of the elements of the duration matrix in the case of early warning models issuing alerts on variable size areas. The approach has been used to evaluate the warnings issued in Western Norway, in the period 2013–2014, considering two datasets of landslides. The results indicate that the landslide datasets do not significantly influence the performance evaluation, although a slightly better performance is registered for the smallest dataset. Different performance results are observed as a function of the values adopted for one of the most important input parameters of EDuMaP, the landslide density criterion (i.e. setting the thresholds to differentiate among classes of landslide events. To investigate this issue, a parametric analysis has been conducted; the results of the analysis show significant differences among computed

  17. System-Wide Early Warning Signs of Instability in Stochastically Forced Power Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Chevalier, Samuel

    2016-01-01

    Prior research has shown that spectral decomposition of the reduced power flow Jacobian can yield participation factors that describe the extent to which particular buses contribute to particular mode shapes in a power system. Research has also shown that both variance and autocorrelation of time series voltage data tend to increase as a power system approaches a critical transition. This paper presents evidence suggesting that a system's participation factors predict the relative bus voltage variance values for all nodes in a system. As a result, these participation factors can be used to combine PMU data from various locations dispersed throughout a power network into a single, coherent measure of global stability. This paper first describes the method of computing the participation factors. Next, two methods for using these factors in conjunction with dynamic time series data are presented. The method is tested using a dynamic model of a 2383-bus test case. Results from these tests indicate that system wid...

  18. A cost-effectiveness analysis of three components of a syndromic surveillance system for the early warning of epidemics in rural China

    OpenAIRE

    Ding, Yan; Sauerborn, Rainer; Xu, Biao; Shaofa, Nie; Yan, Weirong; Diwan, Vinod K.; Dong, Hengjin

    2015-01-01

    Background Syndromic surveillance systems (SSSs) collect non-specific syndromes in early stages of disease outbreaks. This makes an SSS a promising tool for the early detection of epidemics. An Integrated Surveillance System in rural China (ISSC project), which added an SSS to the existing Chinese surveillance system for the early warning of epidemics, was implemented from April 2012 to March 2014 in Jiangxi and Hubei Provinces. This study aims to measure the costs and effectiveness of the th...

  19. A simple and low cost tilt examiner system development for a precise landslide early warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salam, R. A.; Habil, H.; Yuliza, E.; Munir, M. M.; Irsyam, M.; Khairurrijal

    2016-05-01

    Historical data for every disaster provide the information about every single physical phenomenon that can be observed to estimate and monitor the happening of the next disaster event. Some physical parameter that often be investigated are ground movement and changing inclination of the land. Those phenomena are the key points on predicting the occurrence of disaster especially landslide and volcano eruption. One of the method that can be used to prevent the loss of life caused by the disasters is by observing the movement and the change of the slope of inclination at the prone areas using tilt sensor. The increase of possibility of disaster occurrence is reflected on the increase of tilt sensor usage. Therefore, a simple system for testing the performance of a tilt sensor is required. A simple and low cost tilt calibrator has been made by using a stepper motor that is controlled by AVR ATMega8 in which its data and control parameter would be displayed in a 16×2 LCD. The system calibrator was developed to test the readings of the slope from the MMA8451Q accelerometer sensor by moving forward from 0° to 90° and then backward from 90° to 0°. The hysteresis curves of this sensor for each axis have been investigated. Small hysteresis values have been found at the results of MMA8451Q sensor measurement which mean that the sensor has a high degree of stability.

  20. A new air quality monitoring and early warning system: Air quality assessment and air pollutant concentration prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Zhongshan; Wang, Jian

    2017-10-01

    Air pollution in many countries is worsening with industrialization and urbanization, resulting in climate change and affecting people's health, thus, making the work of policymakers more difficult. It is therefore both urgent and necessary to establish amore scientific air quality monitoring and early warning system to evaluate the degree of air pollution objectively, and predict pollutant concentrations accurately. However, the integration of air quality assessment and air pollutant concentration prediction to establish an air quality system is not common. In this paper, we propose a new air quality monitoring and early warning system, including an assessment module and forecasting module. In the air quality assessment module, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is used to determine the main pollutants and evaluate the degree of air pollution more scientifically. In the air pollutant concentration prediction module, a novel hybridization model combining complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition, a modified cuckoo search and differential evolution algorithm, and an Elman neural network, is proposed to improve the forecasting accuracy of six main air pollutant concentrations. To verify the effectiveness of this system, pollutant data for two cities in China are used. The result of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation shows that the major air pollutants in Xi'an and Jinan are PM10 and PM2.5 respectively, and that the air quality of Xi'an is better than that of Jinan. The forecasting results indicate that the proposed hybrid model is remarkably superior to all benchmark models on account of its higher prediction accuracy and stability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Nurse-administered early warning score system can be used for emergency department triage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Dorthea; Jensen, Nanna Martin; Maaløe, Rikke

    2011-01-01

    Warning Score (BEWS). The BEWS is calculated on the basis of respiratory frequency, pulse, systolic blood pressure, temperature and level of consciousness. The aim of this study is to evaluate the ability of the BEWS to identify critically ill patients in the ED and to examine the feasibility of using...

  2. Ocean modelling and Early-Warning System for the Gulf of Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Lima Rego, Joao; Yan, Kun; Sisomphon, Piyamarn; Thanathanphon, Watin; Twigt, Daniel; Irazoqui Apecechea, Maialen

    2017-04-01

    Storm surges associated with severe tropical cyclones are among the most hazardous and damaging natural disasters to coastal areas. The Gulf of Thailand (GoT) has been periodically affected by typhoon induced storm surges in the past (e.g. storm Harriet in 1962, storm Gay in 1989 and storm Linda in 1997). Due to increased touristic / economic development and increased population density in the coastal zone, the combined effect and risk of high water level and increased rainfall / river discharge has dramatically increased and are expected to increase in future due to climate change effects. This presentation describes the development and implementation of the first real-time operational storm surge, wave and wave setup forecasting system in the GoT, a joint applied research initiative by Deltares in The Netherlands and the Hydro and Agro Informatics Institute (HAII) in Thailand. The modelling part includes a new hydrodynamic model to simulate tides and storm surges and two wave models (regional and local). The hydrodynamic model is based on Delft3D Flexible Mesh, capable of simulating water levels and detailed flows. The regional and the recently-developed local wave model are based on the SWAN model, a third-generation wave model. The operational platform is based on Delft-FEWS software, which coordinates all the data inputs, the modelling tasks and the automatic forecast exports including overland inundation in the upper Gulf of Thailand. The main objective of the Gulf of Thailand EWS is to provide daily accurate storm surge, wave and wave setup estimates automatically with various data exports possibilities to support this task. It adds a coastal component to HAII's existing practice of providing daily reports on fluvial flood forecasts, used for decision-support in issuing flood warnings for inland water systems in Thailand. Every day, three-day coastal forecasts are now produced based on the latest regional meteorological predictions. Examples are given to

  3. Technical implementation plan for the ShakeAlert production system: an Earthquake Early Warning system for the West Coast of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Given, Douglas D.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Heaton, Thomas; Hauksson, Egill; Allen, Richard; Hellweg, Peggy; Vidale, John; Bodin, Paul

    2014-01-01

    Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems can provide as much as tens of seconds of warning to people and automated systems before strong shaking arrives. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners are developing such an EEW system, called ShakeAlert, for the West Coast of the United States. This document describes the technical implementation of that system, which leverages existing stations and infrastructure of the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) regional networks to achieve this new capability. While significant progress has been made in developing the ShakeAlert early warning system, improved robustness of each component of the system and additional testing and certification are needed for the system to be reliable enough to issue public alerts. Major components of the system include dense networks of ground motion sensors, telecommunications from those sensors to central processing systems, algorithms for event detection and alert creation, and distribution systems to alert users. Capital investment costs for a West Coast EEW system are projected to be $38.3M, with additional annual maintenance and operations totaling $16.1M—in addition to current ANSS expenditures for earthquake monitoring. An EEW system is complementary to, but does not replace, other strategies to mitigate earthquake losses. The system has limitations: false and missed alerts are possible, and the area very near to an earthquake epicenter may receive little or no warning. However, such an EEW system would save lives, reduce injuries and damage, and improve community resilience by reducing longer-term economic losses for both public and private entities.

  4. Technical implementation plan for the ShakeAlert production system: an Earthquake Early Warning system for the West Coast of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Given, Douglas D.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Heaton, Thomas; Hauksson, Egill; Allen, Richard; Hellweg, Peggy; Vidale, John; Bodin, Paul

    2014-01-01

    Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems can provide as much as tens of seconds of warning to people and automated systems before strong shaking arrives. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners are developing such an EEW system, called ShakeAlert, for the West Coast of the United States. This document describes the technical implementation of that system, which leverages existing stations and infrastructure of the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) regional networks to achieve this new capability. While significant progress has been made in developing the ShakeAlert early warning system, improved robustness of each component of the system and additional testing and certification are needed for the system to be reliable enough to issue public alerts. Major components of the system include dense networks of ground motion sensors, telecommunications from those sensors to central processing systems, algorithms for event detection and alert creation, and distribution systems to alert users. Capital investment costs for a West Coast EEW system are projected to be $38.3M, with additional annual maintenance and operations totaling $16.1M—in addition to current ANSS expenditures for earthquake monitoring. An EEW system is complementary to, but does not replace, other strategies to mitigate earthquake losses. The system has limitations: false and missed alerts are possible, and the area very near to an earthquake epicenter may receive little or no warning. However, such an EEW system would save lives, reduce injuries and damage, and improve community resilience by reducing longer-term economic losses for both public and private entities.

  5. An international intercomparison of national network systems used to provide early warning of a nuclear accident having transboundary implications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thompson, I.M.G.; Andersen, C.E.; Bøtter-Jensen, L.

    2000-01-01

    of these detectors are used. During an accident the data produced by such systems will be exchanged between countries within the European Communities, (EC) and as required by the IAEA's Early Warning Convention between the rest of the world and Europe. It is therefore important to ensure that such data should...... be harmonised so that it can be accurately interpreted by other countries and by international organisations. To assist with such harmonisation an intercomparison was held during May/June 1999 at the Riso Natural Environmental Radiation Measurement Station in Denmark and at the PTB underground laboratory...... for dosimetry and spectrometry (UDO) in Germany. The main aim of the intercomparison was to help ensure that results reported by different countries during a nuclear accident will be consistent and comparable. It is important that during an emergency the measurements of the plume doses or contamination levels...

  6. Early warning epidemic surveillance in the Pacific island nations: an evaluation of the Pacific syndromic surveillance system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, Adam T; Kama, Mike; Samo, Marcus; Vaai, Saine; Matanaicake, Jane; Joshua, Cynthia; Kolbe, Anthony; Durrheim, David N; Paterson, Beverley J; Biaukula, Viema; Nilles, Eric J

    2016-07-01

    The Pacific Syndromic Surveillance System (PSSS), launched in 2010, provides a simple mechanism by which 121 sentinel surveillance sites in 21 Pacific island countries and areas perform routine indicator- and event-based surveillance for the early detection of infectious disease outbreaks. This evaluation aims to assess whether the PSSS is meeting its objectives, what progress has been made since a formative evaluation of the system was conducted in 2011, and provides recommendations to enhance the PSSS's performance in the future. Twenty-one informant interviews were conducted with national operators of the system and regional public health agencies that use information generated by it. Historic PSSS data were analysed to assess timeliness and completeness of reporting. The system is simple, acceptable and useful for public health decision-makers. The PSSS has greatly enhanced Pacific island countries' ability to undertake early warning surveillance and has contributed to efforts to meet national surveillance-related International Health Regulation (2005) capacity development obligations. Despite this, issues with timeliness and completeness of reporting, data quality and system stability persist. A balance between maintaining the system's simplicity and technical advances will need to be found to ensure its long-term sustainability, given the low-resource context for which it is designed. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. An Interactive Geospatial Database and Visualization Approach to Early Warning Systems and Monitoring of Active Volcanoes: GEOWARN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gogu, R. C.; Schwandner, F. M.; Hurni, L.; Dietrich, V. J.

    2002-12-01

    Large parts of southern and central Europe and the Pacific rim are situated in tectonically, seismic and volcanological extremely active zones. With the growth of population and tourism, vulnerability and risk towards natural hazards have expanded over large areas. Socio-economical aspects, land use, tourist and industrial planning as well as environmental protection increasingly require needs of natural hazard assessment. The availability of powerful and reliable satellite, geophysical and geochemical information and warning systems is therefore increasingly vital. Besides, once such systems have proven to be effective, they can be applied for similar purposes in other European areas and worldwide. Technologies today have proven that early warning of volcanic activity can be achieved by monitoring measurable changes in geophysical and geochemical parameters. Correlation between different monitored data sets, which would improve any prediction, is very scarce or missing. Visualisation of all spatial information and integration into an "intelligent cartographic concept" is of paramount interest in order to develop 2-, 3- and 4-dimensional models to approach the risk and emergency assessment as well as environmental and socio-economic planning. In the framework of the GEOWARN project, a database prototype for an Early Warning System (EWS) and monitoring of volcanic activity in case of hydrothermal-explosive and volcanic reactivation has been designed. The platform-independent, web-based, JAVA-programmed, interactive multidisciplinary multiparameter visualization software being developed at ETH allows expansion and utilization to other volcanoes, world-wide databases of volcanic unrest, or other types of natural hazard assessment. Within the project consortium, scientific data have been acquired on two pilot sites: Campi Flegrei (Italy) and Nisyros Greece, including 2&3D Topography and Bathymetry, Elevation (DEM) and Landscape models (DLM) derived from conventional

  8. Construction of food safety early warning system of changde city%地市级政府食品安全预警系统构建

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李彬; 李忠海

    2012-01-01

    Food safety problems occur frequently in our modern society,and the food safety situation is not optimistic. In recent years,the government has been started to establish a food security early warning system to ensure food safety. The food safety of municipal area is a key management area in the national food safety system,but there is still no complete constructed model to municipal government food safety early warning systems at the moment. In this article, the municipal government food safety warning system structure is divided into,early-warning information collection,early warning analysis and early warning response, bases on the municipal food security situation and staffing specific circumstances,and the information systems of the three modules have also been well designed at the same time.%当今社会食品安全问题事件屡次发生,食品安全形势不容乐观.近年来政府开始着手建立食品安全预警系统,以期为食品安全构建一道安全的防线.地市级地区的食品安全是国家食品安全体系中的关键管理区域.针对地市级政府构建食品安全预警系统目前尚无完整的模式,文章根据地市级食品安全状况及人员配备等具体情况,将地市级政府食品安全预警系统结构分为预警信息采集、预警分析和预警反应3个模块,同时对模块的信息系统进行设计.

  9. Earthquake Early Warning with Seismogeodesy: Detection, Location, and Magnitude Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, D.; Bock, Y.; Melgar, D.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquake early warning is critical to reducing injuries and casualties in case of a large magnitude earthquake. The system must rely on near-source data to minimize the time between event onset and issuance of a warning. Early warning systems typically use seismic instruments (seismometers and accelerometers), but these instruments experience difficulty maintaining reliable data in the near-source region and undergo magnitude saturation for large events. Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) instruments capture the long period motions and have been shown to produce robust estimates of the true size of the earthquake source. However, GNSS is often overlooked in this context in part because it is not precise enough to record the first seismic wave arrivals (P-wave detection), an important consideration for issuing an early warning. GNSS instruments are becoming integrated into early warning, but are not yet fully exploited. Our approach involves the combination of direct measurements from collocated GNSS and accelerometer stations to estimate broadband coseismic displacement and velocity waveforms [Bock et al., 2011], a method known as seismogeodesy. We present the prototype seismogeodetic early warning system developed at Scripps and demonstrate that the seismogeodetic dataset can be used for P-wave detection, hypocenter location, and shaking onset determination. We discuss uncertainties in each of these estimates and include discussion of the sensitivity of our estimates as a function of the azimuthal distribution of monitoring stations. The seismogeodetic combination has previously been shown to be immune to magnitude saturation [Crowell et al., 2013; Melgar et al., 2015]. Rapid magnitude estimation is an important product in earthquake early warning, and is the critical metric in current tsunami hazard warnings. Using the seismogeodetic approach, we refine earthquake magnitude scaling using P-wave amplitudes (Pd) and peak ground displacements (PGD) for a

  10. Automated DNA sequence-based early warning system for the detection of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus outbreaks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Mellmann

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The detection of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA usually requires the implementation of often rigorous infection-control measures. Prompt identification of an MRSA epidemic is crucial for the control of an outbreak. In this study we evaluated various early warning algorithms for the detection of an MRSA cluster. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Between 1998 and 2003, 557 non-replicate MRSA strains were collected from staff and patients admitted to a German tertiary-care university hospital. The repeat region of the S. aureus protein A (spa gene in each of these strains was sequenced. Using epidemiological and typing information for the period 1998-2002 as reference data, clusters in 2003 were determined by temporal-scan test statistics. Various early warning algorithms (frequency, clonal, and infection control professionals [ICP] alerts were tested in a prospective analysis for the year 2003. In addition, a newly implemented automated clonal alert system of the Ridom StaphType software was evaluated. A total of 549 of 557 MRSA were typeable using spa sequencing. When analyzed using scan test statistics, 42 out of 175 MRSA in 2003 formed 13 significant clusters (p < 0.05. These clusters were used as the "gold standard" to evaluate the various algorithms. Clonal alerts (spa typing and epidemiological data were 100% sensitive and 95.2% specific. Frequency (epidemiological data only and ICP alerts were 100% and 62.1% sensitive and 47.2% and 97.3% specific, respectively. The difference in specificity between clonal and ICP alerts was not significant. Both methods exhibited a positive predictive value above 80%. CONCLUSIONS: Rapid MRSA outbreak detection, based on epidemiological and spa typing data, is a suitable alternative for classical approaches and can assist in the identification of potential sources of infection.

  11. Workshop "Emerging risks and early warning systems" : deelproject 1.2 : miniconferentie over roegtijdig signalering en waarschuwingssystemen

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koenderink, N.J.J.P.; Kreft, F.

    2007-01-01

    This report is the result of the workshop “Emerging risks and early warning system” held in Wageningen, the Netherlands on October the 19th 2006. The workshop is part of the project “Emerging risks in Dutch food chains”. The purpose of this project is to develop a procedure to identify potential ris

  12. Workshop "Emerging risks and early warning systems" : deelproject 1.2 : miniconferentie over roegtijdig signalering en waarschuwingssystemen

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koenderink, N.J.J.P.; Kreft, F.

    2007-01-01

    This report is the result of the workshop “Emerging risks and early warning system” held in Wageningen, the Netherlands on October the 19th 2006. The workshop is part of the project “Emerging risks in Dutch food chains”. The purpose of this project is to develop a procedure to identify potential

  13. Establishment of turbidity forecasting model and early-warning system for source water turbidity management using back-propagation artificial neural network algorithm and probability analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Tsung-Ming; Fan, Shu-Kai; Fan, Chihhao; Hsu, Nien-Sheng

    2014-08-01

    The purpose of this study is to establish a turbidity forecasting model as well as an early-warning system for turbidity management using rainfall records as the input variables. The Taipei Water Source Domain was employed as the study area, and ANOVA analysis showed that the accumulative rainfall records of 1-day Ping-lin, 2-day Ping-lin, 2-day Fei-tsui, 2-day Shi-san-gu, 2-day Tai-pin and 2-day Tong-hou were the six most significant parameters for downstream turbidity development. The artificial neural network model was developed and proven capable of predicting the turbidity concentration in the investigated catchment downstream area. The observed and model-calculated turbidity data were applied to developing the turbidity early-warning system. Using a previously determined turbidity as the threshold, the rainfall criterion, above which the downstream turbidity would possibly exceed this respective threshold turbidity, for the investigated rain gauge stations was determined. An exemplary illustration demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed turbidity early-warning system as a precautionary alarm of possible significant increase of downstream turbidity. This study is the first report of the establishment of the turbidity early-warning system. Hopefully, this system can be applied to source water turbidity forecasting during storm events and provide a useful reference for subsequent adjustment of drinking water treatment operation.

  14. Development of systems for detection, early warning, and control of pipeline leakage in drinking water distribution: A case study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Weifeng Li; Wencui Ling; Suoxiang Liu; Jing Zhao; Ruiping Liu; Qiuwen Chen; Zhimin Qiang; Jiuhui Qu

    2011-01-01

    Water leakage in drinking water distribution systems is a serious problem for many cities and a huge challenge for water utilities.An integrated system for the detection,early warning,and control of pipeline leakage has been developed and successfully used to manage the pipeline networks in selected areas of Beijing.A method based on the geographic information system has been proposed to quickly and automatically optimize the layout of the instruments which detect leaks.Methods are also proposed to estimate the probability of each pipe segment leaking (on the basis of historic leakage data),and to assist in locating the leakage points (based on leakage signals).The district metering area (DMA) strategy is used.Guidelines and a flowchart for establishing a DMA to manage the large-scale looped networks in Beijing are proposed.These different functions have been implemented into a central software system to simplify the day-to-day use of the system.In 2007 the system detected 102 non-obvious leakages (i.e.,14.2% of the total detected in Beijing) in the selected areas,which was estimated to save a total volume of 2,385,000 m3 of water.These results indicate the feasibility,efficiency and wider applicability of this system.

  15. Early warning of drought in Europe using the monthly ensemble system from ECMWF

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Lavaysse

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Timely forecasts of the onset or possible evolution of droughts are an important contribution to mitigate their manifold negative effects. In this paper we therefore analyse and compare the performance of the first month of the probabilistic extended range forecast and of the seasonal forecast from ECMWF in predicting droughts over the European continent. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI is used to quantify the onset and severity of droughts. It can be shown that on average the extended range forecast has greater skill than the seasonal forecast whilst both outperform climatology. No significant spatial or temporal patterns can be observed but the scores are improved when focussing on large-scale droughts. In a second step we then analyse several different methods to convert the probabilistic forecasts of SPI into a Boolean drought warning. It can be demonstrated that methodologies which convert low percentiles of the forecasted SPI cumulative distribution function into warnings are superior in comparison with alternatives such as the mean or the median of the ensemble. The paper demonstrates that up to 40% of droughts are correctly forecasted one month in advance. Nevertheless, during false alarms or misses, we did not find significant differences in the distribution of the ensemble members that would allow for a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty.

  16. Lessons learnt from an international intercomparison of national network systems used to provide early warning of a nuclear accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saez-Vergara, J.C.; Thompson, I.M.G.; Funck, E.; Andersen, C.E.; Neumaier, S.; Botter-Jensen, L

    2003-07-01

    As part of the European Research Council's Fourth Framework Programme, the EURADOS Action Group on Monitoring of External Exposures held an intercomparison of national network systems. This took place during May/June 1999 at the Riso Natural Environmental Radiation Measurement Station in Denmark and at the Underground Laboratory for Dosimetry and Spectrometry of the Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt in Germany. The network systems are used continuously to monitor radiation levels throughout a country in order to give early warning of nuclear accidents having transboundary implications. The radiation levels measured are used to estimate the radiation risks to people arising from the accident. Seven European countries participated in the intercomparison with detector systems used in their national network systems as well as with detectors being developed for future use. Since different radiation quantities were measured by the systems (namely exposure, air kerma and ambient dose equivalent), the initial analysis of the intercomparison results was made in terms of the quantity air kerma rate. This report completes the analysis of the results and these are given in terms of air kerma rate in order to be consistent with the preliminary report. In addition, in some cases the results are also given in terms of the quantity measured by each national network system. The experience gained from this intercomparison is used to help organise a follow-up intercomparison to be held at the PTB Braunschweig in September 2002 and in which a further seven or eight countries from Europe will participate. (author)

  17. 企业电子商务风险预警系统构建研究%Construction of Early Warning System of Enterprise Electronic Commerce Risk

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    贺桂和

    2012-01-01

    Due to the existence of enterprise electronic commerce risk, it is necessary to establish early warning system. The functions the early warning system of enterprise electronic commerce risk should have are analyzed, its basic framework is dis- cussed, which include subsystems of risk information collecting, risk identifying, risk assessing and diagnosising, risk warning and risk alarming. We also suggested some implementation strategies such as establishing early warning organization, strengthening enterprise internal control, confirming the police source distribution, establishing risk index system, perfecting the early warning mechanism and application of advanced warning technology, etc.%由于企业电子商务存在有风险,因而有必要建立电子商务风险预警系统。分析企业电子商务风险预警系统应当具备的功能,讨论此类系统的基本架构,包括风险信息收集子系统、风险信息识别子系统、风险评估诊断子系统、风险预警报警子系统、风险预警预控子系统,提出建立预警组织机构、加强企业内部控制、确定警源分布总图、建立风险指标体系、完善预警反应机制、利用先进预警技术等策略来确保风险预警系统功能的实现。

  18. The PRESSCA operational early warning system for landslide forecasting: the 11-12 November 2013 rainfall event in Central Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciabatta, Luca; Brocca, Luca; Ponziani, Francesco; Berni, Nicola; Stelluti, Marco; Moramarco, Tommaso

    2014-05-01

    The Umbria Region, located in Central Italy, is one of the most landslide risk prone area in Italy, almost yearly affected by landslides events at different spatial scales. For early warning procedures aimed at the assessment of the hydrogeological risk, the rainfall thresholds represent the main tool for the Italian Civil Protection System. As shown in previous studies, soil moisture plays a key-role in landslides triggering. In fact, acting on the pore water pressure, soil moisture influences the rainfall amount needed for activating a landslide. In this work, an operational physically-based early warning system, named PRESSCA, that takes into account soil moisture for the definition of rainfall thresholds is presented. Specifically, the soil moisture conditions are evaluated in PRESSCA by using a distributed soil water balance model that is recently coupled with near real-time satellite soil moisture product obtained from ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer) and from in-situ monitoring data. The integration of three different sources of soil moisture information allows to estimate the most accurate possible soil moisture condition. Then, both observed and forecasted rainfall data are compared with the soil moisture-based thresholds in order to obtain risk indicators over a grid of ~ 5 km. These indicators are then used for the daily hydrogeological risk evaluation and management by the Civil Protection regional service, through the sharing/delivering of near real-time landslide risk scenarios (also through an open source web platform: www.cfumbria.it). On the 11th-12th November, 2013, Umbria Region was hit by an exceptional rainfall event with up to 430mm/72hours that resulted in significant economic damages, but fortunately no casualties among the population. In this study, the results during the rainfall event of PRESSCA system are described, by underlining the model capability to reproduce, two days in advance, landslide risk scenarios in good spatial and temporal

  19. Research and Application of an Air Quality Early Warning System Based on a Modified Least Squares Support Vector Machine and a Cloud Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianzhou; Niu, Tong; Wang, Rui

    2017-01-01

    The worsening atmospheric pollution increases the necessity of air quality early warning systems (EWSs). Despite the fact that a massive amount of investigation about EWS in theory and practicality has been conducted by numerous researchers, studies concerning the quantification of uncertain information and comprehensive evaluation are still lacking, which impedes further development in the area. In this paper, firstly a comprehensive warning system is proposed, which consists of two vital indispensable modules, namely effective forecasting and scientific evaluation, respectively. For the forecasting module, a novel hybrid model combining the theory of data preprocessing and numerical optimization is first developed to implement effective forecasting for air pollutant concentration. Especially, in order to further enhance the accuracy and robustness of the warning system, interval forecasting is implemented to quantify the uncertainties generated by forecasts, which can provide significant risk signals by using point forecasting for decision-makers. For the evaluation module, a cloud model, based on probability and fuzzy set theory, is developed to perform comprehensive evaluations of air quality, which can realize the transformation between qualitative concept and quantitative data. To verify the effectiveness and efficiency of the warning system, extensive simulations based on air pollutants data from Dalian in China were effectively implemented, which illustrate that the warning system is not only remarkably high-performance, but also widely applicable. PMID:28257122

  20. Instrumentation Recommendations for Volcano Monitoring at U.S. Volcanoes Under the National Volcano Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Seth C.; Freymueller, Jeff T.; LaHusen, Richard G.; McGee, Kenneth A.; Poland, Michael P.; Power, John A.; Schmidt, David A.; Schneider, David J.; Stephens, George; Werner, Cynthia A.; White, Randall A.

    2008-01-01

    As magma moves toward the surface, it interacts with anything in its path: hydrothermal systems, cooling magma bodies from previous eruptions, and (or) the surrounding 'country rock'. Magma also undergoes significant changes in its physical properties as pressure and temperature conditions change along its path. These interactions and changes lead to a range of geophysical and geochemical phenomena. The goal of volcano monitoring is to detect and correctly interpret such phenomena in order to provide early and accurate warnings of impending eruptions. Given the well-documented hazards posed by volcanoes to both ground-based populations (for example, Blong, 1984; Scott, 1989) and aviation (for example, Neal and others, 1997; Miller and Casadevall, 2000), volcano monitoring is critical for public safety and hazard mitigation. Only with adequate monitoring systems in place can volcano observatories provide accurate and timely forecasts and alerts of possible eruptive activity. At most U.S. volcanoes, observatories traditionally have employed a two-component approach to volcano monitoring: (1) install instrumentation sufficient to detect unrest at volcanic systems likely to erupt in the not-too-distant future; and (2) once unrest is detected, install any instrumentation needed for eruption prediction and monitoring. This reactive approach is problematic, however, for two reasons. 1. At many volcanoes, rapid installation of new ground-1. based instruments is difficult or impossible. Factors that complicate rapid response include (a) eruptions that are preceded by short (hours to days) precursory sequences of geophysical and (or) geochemical activity, as occurred at Mount Redoubt (Alaska) in 1989 (24 hours), Anatahan (Mariana Islands) in 2003 (6 hours), and Mount St. Helens (Washington) in 1980 and 2004 (7 and 8 days, respectively); (b) inclement weather conditions, which may prohibit installation of new equipment for days, weeks, or even months, particularly at

  1. Refurbishment and Installation of a Monitoring and Early Warning System on the Sierroz Embankments in Aix-les-Bains, France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Courivaud Jean-Robert

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Sierroz embankments are located in an urban area, in the city of Aix-les-Bains (Savoie, France. Their linear is 400m on both rims. These embankments protect about 900 people against Sierroz river floods. Hydraulic studies performed in the frame of the Aix-les-Bains Inundation Risk Prevention Plan (PPRI in French have shown that these embankments have a high risk of failure by overtopping during a 100 year return period flood of the Sierroz River. These studies have defined inundation maps with High Danger areas. From these results, the city of Aix-les- Bains asked EDF to perform a safety assessment study, in order to assess the safety margins of these embankments for each of their potential failure modes: overtopping erosion, internal erosion, slope sliding and liquefaction. This study confirmed that the main risk is breaching by overtopping erosion during flood. This diagnosis led the city of Aix-les-Bains to launch two parades: (i the embankment refurbishment in order to provide them satisfactory safety margins during a 100 year return period flood and (ii a monitoring and early-warning system able to alert population at risk as early as possible when breaching is imminent. These two parades are presented including environmental constraints and cost estimates.

  2. Research and application of a hybrid model based on dynamic fuzzy synthetic evaluation for establishing air quality forecasting and early warning system: A case study in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yunzhen; Du, Pei; Wang, Jianzhou

    2017-04-01

    As the atmospheric environment pollution has been becoming more and more serious in China, it is highly desirable to develop a scientific and effective early warning system that plays a great significant role in analyzing and monitoring air quality. However, establishing a robust early warning system for warning the public in advance and ameliorating air quality is not only an extremely challenging task but also a public concerned problem for human health. Most previous studies are focused on improving the prediction accuracy, which usually ignore the significance of uncertainty information and comprehensive evaluation concerning air pollutants. Therefore, in this paper a novel robust early warning system was successfully developed, which consists of three modules: evaluation module, forecasting module and characteristics estimating module. In this system, a new dynamic fuzzy synthetic evaluation is proposed and applied to determine air quality levels and primary pollutants, which can be regarded as the research objectives; Moreover, to further mine and analyze the characteristics of air pollutants, four different distribution functions and interval forecasting method are also employed that can not only provide predictive range, confidence level and the other uncertain information of the pollutants future values, but also assist decision-makers in reducing and controlling the emissions of atmospheric pollutants. Case studies utilizing hourly PM2.5, PM10 and SO2 data collected from Tianjin and Shanghai in China are applied as illustrative examples to estimate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed system. Experimental results obviously indicated that the developed novel early warning system is much suitable for analyzing and monitoring air pollution, which can also add a novel viable option for decision-makers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Developing an automatic classification system of vegetation anomalies for early warning with the ASAP (Anomaly hot Spots of Agricultural Production) system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meroni, M.; Rembold, F.; Urbano, F.; Lemoine, G.

    2016-12-01

    Anomaly maps and time profiles of remote sensing derived indicators relevant to monitor crop and vegetation stress can be accessed online thanks to a rapidly growing number of web based portals. However, timely and systematic global analysis and coherent interpretation of such information, as it is needed for example for SDG 2 related monitoring, remains challenging. With the ASAP system (Anomaly hot Spots of Agricultural Production) we propose a two-step analysis to provide monthly warning of production deficits in water-limited agriculture worldwide. The first step is fully automated and aims at classifying each administrative unit (1st sub-national level) into a number of possible warning levels, ranging from "none" to "watch" and up to "extended alarm". The second step involves the verification of the automatic warnings and integration into a short national level analysis by agricultural analysts. In this paper we describe the methodological development of the automatic vegetation anomaly classification system. Warnings are triggered only during the crop growing season, defined by a remote sensing based phenology. The classification takes into consideration the fraction of the agricultural and rangelands area for each administrative unit that is affected by a severe anomaly of two rainfall-based indicators (the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), computed at 1 and 3-month scale) and one biophysical indicator (the cumulative NDVI from the start of the growing season). The severity of the warning thus depends on the timing, the nature and the number of indicators for which an anomaly is detected. The prototype system is using global NDVI images of the METOP sensor, while a second version is being developed based on 1km Modis NDVI with temporal smoothing and near real time filtering. Also a specific water balance model is under development to include agriculture water stress information in addition to the SPI. The monthly warning classification and crop

  4. GEODATA: Information System Based on Geospatial for Early Warning Tracking and Analysis Agricultural Plant Diseases in Central Java

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasetyo, S. Y. J.; Agus, Y. H.; Dewi, C.; Simanjuntak, B. H.; Hartomo, K. D.

    2017-03-01

    The Government of Indonesia is currently faced with the problems of food, especially rice. It needs in large numbers that have to import from neighboring countries. Actually, the Indonesian government has the ability to produce rice to meet national needs but is still faced with the problem of pest attack rice annually increasing extent. One of the factors is that geographically Indonesia located on the migration path of world rice insect pests (called BPH or Brown Planthoppers) (Nilaparvata lugens Stal.) It leads endemic status annually. One proposed strategy to be applied is to use an early warning system based on a specific region of the main pest population. The proposed information system called GEODATA. GEODATA is Geospatial Outbreak of Disease Tracking and Analysis. The system works using a library ESSA (Exponential Smoothing - Spatial Autocorrelation) developed in previous studies in Satya Wacana Christian University. GEODATA built to meet the qualifications required surveillance device by BMKG (Indonesian Agency of Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics’ Central Java Provinces), BPTPH (Indonesian Agency of Plant Protection and Horticulture) Central Java Provinces, BKP-KP District Boyolali, Central Java, (Indonesian Agency of Food Security and Agriculture Field Supervisor, District Boyolali, Central Java Provinces) and farmer groups. GIS GEODATA meets the needs of surveillance devices that include: (1) mapping of the disease, (2) analysis of the dynamics of the disease, and (3) prediction of attacks / disease outbreaks in a particular region. GIS GEODATA is currently under implementation in the laboratory field observations of plant pest in Central Java province, Indonesia.

  5. Fusion of High-Rate GPS and Seismic Data: Applications to Early Warning Systems for Mitigation of Geological Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Y.; Crowell, B.; Webb, F.; Kedar, S.; Clayton, R.; Miyahara, B.

    2008-12-01

    We discuss the fusion of low-latency (1 s) high-rate (1 Hz or greater) CGPS displacements and traditional seismic data, in order to extend the frequency range and timeliness of surface displacement data already available at lower frequencies from space borne InSAR and (typically daily) CGPS coordinate time series. The goal is development of components of early warning systems for mitigation of geological hazards (direct seismic damage, tsunamis, landslides, volcanoes). The advantage of the GPS data is that it is a direct measurement of ground displacement. With seismic data, this type of measure has to be obtained by deconvolution of the instrument response and integration of the broadband (velocity) measurements, or a double integration of the strong motion (acceleration) measurements. Due to the bandwidth and the dynamic range limits of seismometers the accuracy of absolute displacements so derived is poor. This problem is not present in the high-sample rate GPS data. While the seismic measurement provides a powerful constraint on the much noisier GPS measurements, unlike the seismometer, the GPS receiver never clips. Using the Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation (NEES) Large High-Performance Outdoor Shake Table at USCD, we present an example of combining in real-time 50 Hz GPS displacements and 250 Hz raw accelerometer data using a multi-rate Kalman filter, previously applied to bridge monitoring. A full-scale 7- story building atop the shake table was subjected to high intensity shaking by replaying the Sylmar accelerometer record from the Mw 6.7 1994 Northridge earthquake. The resulting 250 Hz displacement waveform is significantly more accurate than obtained solely by low-pass filtering and double integration of the 250 Hz accelerometer records. Next we demonstrate the elements of an earthquake early warning system by analyzing the 2003 Mw 8.3 Tokachi-Oki thrust earthquake off Hokkaido Island detected by the dense Japan national real-time CGPS

  6. Establishment and Application of Early Warning System for Flood and Debris Flow Triggered by Rapid Erosion of Natural Barrier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaji, A.; Mizuno, H.; Yamakoshi, T.; Ishizuka, T.

    2012-04-01

    A large amount of mass of land from a mountain slides into a gorge and a river, depositing on the bed. The formation of such natural barrier provides a dam called "a natural dam", allowing water to accumulate in the upstream. People living in the downstream of basin are at risk of flood triggered by the dam break. Recently, many people have been at such risk emerged by earthquakes and heavy rainfall therefore they have been requesting to establish an early warning system for such flood risk. By analyzing the past case of the formations and the natural dam breaks in Japan, it was found that the surface flow on the natural dam eroded the deposition rapidly and the accumulated water and the deposition started to flow downstream in many cases. So that an alert should be issued by forecasting when the accumulated water in the upstream starts to flow on the deposition. In order to forecast the timing, we have to take into consideration of the difference between the water volume of flowing to the lake from the upstream basin and that of seeping into the deposition. Our final target is to develop a method for estimating the two previous quantities. In the first step, we report the result of analysis of the past cases in Japan. We focused on the two natural dams in the Yuhama village in Miyagi prefecture and in the Nagatono village in Nara prefecture. The natural dam in Yuhama village was formed by a deep-seated landslide triggered by the earthquake in 2008, and the natural dam in Nagatono was formed by a deep-seated landslide triggered by heavy rainfall in 2011. In the Yuhama case, the water level of the accumulated water had been rising until it reached to the top of the natural dam. In the Nagatono case, the water level had been rising during rainfall, however the water level had been dropping after the rainfall. The difference between the water volume of flowing in and that of flowing out from the natural dam caused the tendencies. We are going to analyze the soil

  7. Designing and implementing more effective Integrated Early Warning Systems in mountain areas: a case study from Northern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina García

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available It is essential to consider and to understand the social context in which an Early Warning System (EWS is planned and to integrate all of its components, otherwise it is likely to fail. EWS are complex tools for disaster risk reduction which are only effective if they generate an appropriate response in the exposed population. Any effective EWS relies on the reaction capacity of all stakeholders. This reaction capacity is strongly dependent on how well EWS are integrated within their social context, especially with regards to potential marginalized and vulnerable communities. This dependence was confirmed in the study area in Valtellina di Tirano, northern Italy, which is recurrently affected by multiple mountain hazards. The local population is geographically marginalized due to restricted access to the region and exposure to hazardous events, and socially marginalized due to the lack of participation in decision making. Results of a survey show that the local population has low levels of perceived risk, a general lack of self-responsibility with regard to disaster risk reduction, and a tendency to transfer the responsibility to the authorities. However, respondents acknowledge and show interest in addressing their lack of preparedness and in participating actively in disaster risk reduction efforts. A follow-up survey demonstrates that significant variations in vulnerability within a given community over time, occur together with changes in traditional livelihood activities, economic systems and population demographics.

  8. The DEFENSE (debris Flows triggEred by storms - nowcasting system): An early warning system for torrential processes by radar storm tracking using a Geographic Information System (GIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiranti, Davide; Cremonini, Roberto; Marco, Federica; Gaeta, Armando Riccardo; Barbero, Secondo

    2014-09-01

    Debris flows, responsible for economic losses and occasionally casualties in the alpine region, are mainly triggered by heavy rains characterized by hourly peaks of varying intensity, depending on the features of the basin under consideration. By integrating a recent classification of alpine basins with the radar storm tracking method, an innovative early warning system called DEFENSE (DEbris Flows triggEred by storms - Nowcasting SystEm) was developed using a Geographical Information System (GIS). Alpine catchments were classified into three main classes based on the weathering capacity of the bedrock into clay or clay-like minerals, the amount of which, in unconsolidated material, directly influences the debris flow rheology, and thus the sedimentary processes, the alluvial fan architecture, as well as the triggering frequency and seasonal occurrence probability of debris flows. Storms were identified and tracked by processing weather radar observations; subsequently, rainfall intensities and storm severity were estimated over each classified basin. Due to rainfall threshold values determined for each basin class, based on statistical analysis of historical records, an automatic corresponding warning could be issued to municipalities.

  9. Earthquake Early Warning for the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake: Performance Evaluation of the Current System and Simulations of the Next-Generation Methods of the Japan Meteorological Agency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodera, Y.; Saitou, J.; Hayashimoto, N.; Adachi, S.; Morimoto, M.; Nishimae, Y.; Hoshiba, M.

    2016-12-01

    The sequence of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (the Kumamoto earthquake) is extremely high seismic activity that occurred across Kumamoto and Oita prefectures in Japan since April 14, 2016 at 21:26 (JST). The Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) processed large amount of earthquake data and issued 19 warnings (higher grade alerts) and 175 forecasts (lower grade alerts) for the Kumamoto earthquake from April 14 to 30. Especially on April 14 and 16, the system operated under one of the highest workload conditions since JMA started its EEW service. We evaluated the system performance for cases where the warning was issued and/or the maximum seismic intensity of ≥5L (on the JMA scale) was actually observed, calculating prediction scores and lapse times from detection. The result shows that the system rapidly disseminated high accurate EEW announcements for most of the devastating earthquakes and did not miss or seriously under-predict strong motions. On the other hand, the system issued over-predicted warnings when multiple simultaneous earthquakes occurred within a short distance, comparable with the interval of the seismic observation network. We also simulated the Integrated Particle Filter (IPF) and Propagation of Local Undamped Motion (PLUM) methods, scheduled to be implemented in the JMA EEW system to minimize over-prediction with multiple simultaneous earthquakes and under-prediction with huge earthquakes (M> 8). The simulation results indicate that the IPF method is highly effective for the cases where the current system issued the over-predicted warnings, owing to its classification algorithm using amplitude data and its robust hypocenter determination against outliers among trigger data. The results also show that the PLUM method contributes to more rapid warning issuance for the devastating earthquakes, owing to its denser seismic observation network.

  10. The forecasting research of early warning systems for atmospheric pollutants: A case in Yangtze River Delta region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Yiliao; Qin, Shanshan; Qu, Jiansheng; Liu, Feng

    2015-10-01

    The issue of air quality regarding PM pollution levels in China is a focus of public attention. To address that issue, to date, a series of studies is in progress, including PM monitoring programs, PM source apportionment, and the enactment of new ambient air quality index standards. However, related research concerning computer modeling for PM future trends estimation is rare, despite its significance to forecasting and early warning systems. Thereby, a study regarding deterministic and interval forecasts of PM is performed. In this study, data on hourly and 12 h-averaged air pollutants are applied to forecast PM concentrations within the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region of China. The characteristics of PM emissions have been primarily examined and analyzed using different distribution functions. To improve the distribution fitting that is crucial for estimating PM levels, an artificial intelligence algorithm is incorporated to select the optimal parameters. Following that step, an ANF model is used to conduct deterministic forecasts of PM. With the identified distributions and deterministic forecasts, different levels of PM intervals are estimated. The results indicate that the lognormal or gamma distributions are highly representative of the recorded PM data with a goodness-of-fit R2 of approximately 0.998. Furthermore, the results of the evaluation metrics (MSE, MAPE and CP, AW) also show high accuracy within the deterministic and interval forecasts of PM, indicating that this method enables the informative and effective quantification of future PM trends.

  11. Methodology for Developing Hydrological Models Based on an Artificial Neural Network to Establish an Early Warning System in Small Catchments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Sušanj

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In some situations, there is no possibility of hazard mitigation, especially if the hazard is induced by water. Thus, it is important to prevent consequences via an early warning system (EWS to announce the possible occurrence of a hazard. The aim and objective of this paper are to investigate the possibility of implementing an EWS in a small-scale catchment and to develop a methodology for developing a hydrological prediction model based on an artificial neural network (ANN as an essential part of the EWS. The methodology is implemented in the case study of the Slani Potok catchment, which is historically recognized as a hazard-prone area, by establishing continuous monitoring of meteorological and hydrological parameters to collect data for the training, validation, and evaluation of the prediction capabilities of the ANN model. The model is validated and evaluated by visual and common calculation approaches and a new evaluation for the assessment. This new evaluation is proposed based on the separation of the observed data into classes based on the mean data value and the percentages of classes above or below the mean data value as well as on the performance of the mean absolute error.

  12. A seamless global hydrological monitoring and forecasting system for water resources assessment and hydrological hazard early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, Justin; He, Xiaogang; Wood, Eric; Pan, Ming; Wanders, Niko; Zhan, Wang; Peng, Liqing

    2017-04-01

    Sustainable management of water resources and mitigation of the impacts of hydrological hazards are becoming ever more important at large scales because of inter-basin, inter-country and inter-continental connections in water dependent sectors. These include water resources management, food production, and energy production, whose needs must be weighed against the water needs of ecosystems and preservation of water resources for future generations. The strains on these connections are likely to increase with climate change and increasing demand from burgeoning populations and rapid development, with potential for conflict over water. At the same time, network connections may provide opportunities to alleviate pressures on water availability through more efficient use of resources such as trade in water dependent goods. A key constraint on understanding, monitoring and identifying solutions to increasing competition for water resources and hazard risk is the availability of hydrological data for monitoring and forecasting water resources and hazards. We present a global online system that provides continuous and consistent water products across time scales, from the historic instrumental period, to real-time monitoring, short-term and seasonal forecasts, and climate change projections. The system is intended to provide data and tools for analysis of historic hydrological variability and trends, water resources assessment, monitoring of evolving hazards and forecasts for early warning, and climate change scale projections of changes in water availability and extreme events. The system is particular useful for scientists and stakeholders interested in regions with less available in-situ data, and where forecasts have the potential to help decision making. The system is built on a database of high-resolution climate data from 1950 to present that merges available observational records with bias-corrected reanalysis and satellite data, which then drives a coupled land

  13. Early-warning signals (potentially) reduce uncertainty in forecasted timing of critical shifts in vegetation systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Karssenberg, D.J.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2011-01-01

    Non-linear systems may undergo abrupt transitions as a result of a gradual change in system drivers. Such regime shifts, or critical transitions, have been described for a large range of spatio-temporal systems, including those studied in the social sciences, ecology, geology, and climatology. Regim

  14. Clicker Score Trajectories and Concept Inventory Scores as Predictors for Early Warning Systems for Large STEM Classes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Un Jung; Sbeglia, Gena C.; Ha, Minsu; Finch, Stephen J.; Nehm, Ross H.

    2015-12-01

    Increasing the retention of STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) majors has recently emerged as a national priority in undergraduate education. Since poor performance in large introductory science and math courses is one significant factor in STEM dropout, early detection of struggling students is needed. Technology-supported "early warning systems" (EWSs) are being developed to meet these needs. Our study explores the utility of two commonly collected data sources—pre-course concept inventory scores and longitudinal clicker scores—for use in EWS, specifically, in determining the time points at which robust predictions of student success can first be established. The pre-course diagnostic assessments, administered to 287 students, included two concept inventories and one attitude assessment. Clicker question scores were also obtained for each of the 37 class sessions. Additionally, student characteristics (sex, ethnicity, and English facility) were gathered in a survey. Our analyses revealed that all variables were predictive of final grades. The correlation of the first 3 weeks of clicker scores with final grades was 0.53, suggesting that this set of variables could be used in an EWS starting at the third week. We also used group-based trajectory models to assess whether trajectory patterns were homogeneous in the class. The trajectory analysis identified three distinct clicker performance patterns that were also significant predictors of final grade. Trajectory analyses of clicker scores, student characteristics, and pre-course diagnostic assessment appear to be valuable data sources for EWS, although further studies in a diversity of instructional contexts are warranted.

  15. Early warning systems and rapid response to the deteriorating patient in hospital: A systematic realist review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGaughey, Jennifer; O'Halloran, Peter; Porter, Sam; Blackwood, Bronagh

    2017-07-20

    To determine the Rapid Response System programme theory and investigate how the mechanisms of implementation and the characteristics of context combine to enable or constrain the implementation of Rapid Response Systems and the achievement of desired outcomes. Rapid Response Systems have been implemented internationally to improve the recognition and management of patient deterioration, reduce the need for cardiopulmonary resuscitation and improve patient outcomes. Realist review. We searched DARE, CENTRAL, NHSEED, MEDLINE, Medline In Process, EMBASE, CINAHL, PubMed, Scopus, The Web of Science and PychInfo databases from 1997 - 2017 in addition to purposively searching the grey literature looking for articles supporting, refuting or explaining Rapid Response System programme theories. Included studies were critically appraised and graded using the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme tool. Data extraction and synthesis investigated the Rapid Response System theoretical propositions against the empirical evidence to refine Rapid Response System programme theories. The review found that the Rapid Response System programme theory achieved desired outcomes when there were sufficient skills mix of experienced staff, EWS protocols were used flexibly alongside clinical judgement and staff had access to ongoing, multiprofessional, competency-based education. However, ward cultures, hierarchical referral systems, workload and staffing resources had a negative impact on the implementation of the Rapid Response System. To improve the recognition and management of patient deterioration, policymakers need to address those cultural, educational and organizational factors that have an impact on the successful implementation of Rapid Response Systems in practice. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. A European precipitation index for extreme rain‐storm and flash flood early warning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Alfieri, L; Thielen, J

    2015-01-01

    .... Despite recent notable advances in weather forecasting, most operational early warning systems for extreme rainstorms and flash floods are still based on rainfall measurements from rain gauges...

  17. Early warning system for detection of protozoal contamination of source waters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Al-Sabi, Mohammad Nafi Solaiman; Mogensen, Claus; Berg, Tommy W.

    2012-01-01

    contamination of the source. Sample acquisition and analysis is performed real-time where objects in suspension are differentiated into e.g. Cryptosporidium spp., Giardia spp., organic and inorganic subgroups. An alarm system is activated by positive finds, and subsequently (oo-)cysts passing through the system...... water contamination e.g. water plants/water distribution networks, filtration systems (water purification), commercial buildings, swimming pools, and industry in general. Data from on-going field tests as well as sensitivity and specificity testing of the system will be presented at the conference....... optical technique, in combination with advanced data analysis, yields a measure for the protozoal content present in the sample. High sensitivity of the system is obtained through a combination of filtration and the use of ultrasound. This gives a fast and reliable detection capability of protozoal...

  18. Regional analysis of maize-based land use systems for early warning applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rugege, D.

    2002-01-01

    Conventional analytical crop growth models cannot handle actual Land Use Systems because of massive data needs, algorithm complexity and prohibitive error propagation. It is possible however to describe rigidly simplified 'Production Situations'

  19. Using Ontario's "Telehealth" health telephone helpline as an early-warning system: a study protocol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moore Kieran M

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The science of syndromic surveillance is still very much in its infancy. While a number of syndromic surveillance systems are being evaluated in the US, very few have had success thus far in predicting an infectious disease event. Furthermore, to date, the majority of syndromic surveillance systems have been based primarily in emergency department settings, with varying levels of enhancement from other data sources. While research has been done on the value of telephone helplines on health care use and patient satisfaction, very few projects have looked at using a telephone helpline as a source of data for syndromic surveillance, and none have been attempted in Canada. The notable exception to this statement has been in the UK where research using the national NHS Direct system as a syndromic surveillance tool has been conducted. Methods/design The purpose of our proposed study is to evaluate the effectiveness of Ontario's telephone nursing helpline system as a real-time syndromic surveillance system, and how its implementation, if successful, would have an impact on outbreak event detection in Ontario. Using data collected retrospectively, all "reasons for call" and assigned algorithms will be linked to a syndrome category. Using different analytic methods, normal thresholds for the different syndromes will be ascertained. This will allow for the evaluation of the system's sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value. The next step will include the prospective monitoring of syndromic activity, both temporally and spatially. Discussion As this is a study protocol, there are currently no results to report. However, this study has been granted ethical approval, and is now being implemented. It is our hope that this syndromic surveillance system will display high sensitivity and specificity in detecting true outbreaks within Ontario, before they are detected by conventional surveillance systems. Future results will be

  20. Development of Flood Warning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joy J. Labo,

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Community-based early warning systems (CBEWS is a “people-centered” system and empowers individuals and communities threatened by hazards to act on sufficient time and in an appropriate manner to reduce the possibility of personal injury, loss of life, damage to property, environment and loss of livelihood. These things lead to the development of the device necessary for the protection of the community against flood hazards as it allows people to get prepared with sufficient time. An alarm system was developed to monitor the water level on Salog River that overflows during heavy rains. The water level sensors were submerged in a canal of water to test the functionality of the device before its installation. Computer programs were created to enhance the monitoring of water level: the River Monitor Software and the Water Level Monitor. The LED arrays emit light according to water level; green for low, orange for medium, and red for high. A siren also alarms with different intervals (30 seconds for low, 15 seconds for medium, and a continuous alarm for high. Automatic emergency lighting was integrated in the design and lights up during power outages powered by rechargeable sealed battery that charges when ac power is supplied to the device. Levels were established based on available data; low water level means awareness; medium water level means preparedness and high water level means immediate response is necessary.

  1. 联合空情预警能力评估研究%Capability evaluation of joint air intelligence early warning systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    董长清; 李凌鹏; 周一蛟; 王海林

    2014-01-01

    为合理构建联合空情预警体系、优化兵力部署结构,从能力评估的角度,分析信息化条件下构建联合空情预警体系的新要求,根据作战任务将联合空情预警能力分解为预警探测能力、引导保障能力、抗毁抗扰能力、机动作战能力和空情处理能力,建立了指标体系的层次结构,给出了13个底层指标的数学模型,并运用综合加权方法进行了评估分析。计算结果表明,该指标体系对科学构建联合空情预警体系具有一定的参考作用。%To establish the joint air situation early-warning systems (JASEAS) reasonably and optimize the configuration of force deployment, this paper analyzes the new requirements for building up a joint air situation early-warning system in the case of informatization, at the angle of capability evaluation, resolves the capabilities of JASEAS into the early warning detection, guidance and support, anti-damage and anti-jamming, mobile operations and air intelligence processing ones in accordance with combat tasks, sets up the hierarchic structure of the index system, and presents the mathematic models for 13 ground layer indices, and finally carries out an evaluation analysis using comprehensive weighting method. Computation results indicate that this proposed index system possesses a certain reference for constructing the joint air intelligence early-warning systems, scientifically.

  2. Smartphone MEMS accelerometers and earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Q.; Allen, R. M.; Schreier, L.; Kwon, Y. W.

    2015-12-01

    The low cost MEMS accelerometers in the smartphones are attracting more and more attentions from the science community due to the vast number and potential applications in various areas. We are using the accelerometers inside the smartphones to detect the earthquakes. We did shake table tests to show these accelerometers are also suitable to record large shakings caused by earthquakes. We developed an android app - MyShake, which can even distinguish earthquake movements from daily human activities from the recordings recorded by the accelerometers in personal smartphones and upload trigger information/waveform to our server for further analysis. The data from these smartphones forms a unique datasets for seismological applications, such as earthquake early warning. In this talk I will layout the method we used to recognize earthquake-like movement from single smartphone, and the overview of the whole system that harness the information from a network of smartphones for rapid earthquake detection. This type of system can be easily deployed and scaled up around the global and provides additional insights of the earthquake hazards.

  3. Early warning system for detection of protozoal contamination of source waters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Al-Sabi, Mohammad Nafi Solaiman; Mogensen, Claus; Berg, Tommy W.

    2012-01-01

    water contamination e.g. water plants/water distribution networks, filtration systems (water purification), commercial buildings, swimming pools, and industry in general. Data from on-going field tests as well as sensitivity and specificity testing of the system will be presented at the conference.......Ensuring water quality is an ever increasing important issue world-wide. Currently, detection of protozoa in drinking water is a costly and time consuming process. We have developed an online, real-time sensor for detection of Cryptosporidium and Giardia spp. in a range of source waters. The novel...

  4. The Construction and Empirical Analysis of Financial Risk Early Warning System in Colleges and Universities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dai Jiaxu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, China's higher education into the period of rapid development, high growth will inevitably bring high demand for financial support, but the government investment can not keep up with the pace of development of colleges and universities, so many colleges and universities choose bank loans, blind expansion will be out of control Resulting in college financial crisis. This paper proposes a method to construct the financial risk evaluation model of colleges and universities. The model is based on the specific risk index system, and uses the analytic hierarchy process and Delphi expert scoring method as the theoretical basis. The model can calculate the type and level of financial risk in colleges and universities, and provide support for the system decision-making.

  5. Implementation of a novel postoperative monitoring system using automated Modified Early Warning Scores (MEWS) incorporating end-tidal capnography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blankush, Joseph M; Freeman, Robbie; McIlvaine, Joy; Tran, Trung; Nassani, Stephen; Leitman, I Michael

    2016-10-20

    Modified Early Warning Scores (MEWS) provide real-time vital sign (VS) trending and reduce ICU admissions in post-operative patients. These early warning calculations classically incorporate oxygen saturation, heart rate, respiratory rate, systolic blood pressure, and temperature but have not previously included end-tidal CO2 (EtCO2), more recently identified as an independent predictor of critical illness. These systems may be subject to failure when physiologic data is incorrectly measured, leading to false alarms and increased workload. This study investigates whether the implementation of automated devices that utilize ongoing vital signs monitoring and MEWS calculations, inclusive of a score for end-tidal CO2 (EtCO2), can be feasibly implemented on the general care hospital floor and effectively identify derangements in a post-operative patient's condition while limiting the amount of false alarms that would serve to increase provider workload. From July to November 2014, post-operative patients meeting the inclusion criteria (BMI > 30 kg/m(2), history of obstructive sleep apnea, or the use of patient-controlled analgesia (PCA) or epidural narcotics) were monitored using automated devices that record minute-by-minute VS included in classic MEWS calculations as well as EtCO2. Automated messages via pagers were sent to providers for instances when the device measured elevated MEWS, abnormal EtCO2, and oxygen desaturations below 85 %. Data, including alarm and message details from the first 133 patients, were recorded and analyzed. Overall, 3.3 alarms and pages sounded per hour of monitoring. Device-only alarms sounded 2.7 times per hour-21 % were technical alarms. The remaining device-only alarms for concerning VS sounded 2.0/h, 70 % for falsely recorded VS. Pages for abnormal EtCO2 sounded 0.4/h (82 % false recordings) while pages for low blood oxygen saturation sounded 0.1/h (55 % false alarms). 143 times (0.1 pages/h) the devices calculated a MEWS

  6. Early Warning Signals - conceptual limitations and opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bathiany, Sebastian; Claussen, Martin; Fraedrich, Klaus

    2014-05-01

    Due to potentially large positive feedbacks in the climate system, the existence of tipping points is under debate. At these points, small changes in forcing can lead to abrupt climate change due to the destabilising feedbacks. In order to predict such abrupt changes or to distinguish changes in stability from random state transitions, it has been proposed to exploit statistical precursors of instabilities, also called early warning signals (EWS). However, we argue that the limitations of the underlying concept generally do not allow conclusions on the mechanism of abrupt changes without substantial physical knowledge - the burden of proof lies with the applier of EWS. We demonstrate these limitations with examples from vegetation dynamics and sea ice cover change in models of very different complexity. Apart from the practical problem of short and non-stationary time-series, statistical properties such as variance and autocorrelation usually change for reasons unrelated to the system's stability. In particular, it has to be known, how the natural variability (noise) in a system is caused and how it propagates through the system. A further fundamental limitation is imposed by the large number of spatial degrees of freedom. The benefit of EWS has only been shown in idealised systems of predefined spatial extent. In a more general context like a complex climate system model, the critical subsystem that exhibits a loss in stability (hotspot) and the critical mode of the transition may be unknown. An abrupt change can therefore come as a surprise. However, we suggest that EWS can be applied as a diagnostic tool to find the hotspot of a sudden transition and to distinguish this hotspot from regions experiencing an induced tipping. For this purpose we present a scheme which identifies a hotspot as a certain combination of grid cells which maximise an EWS. The method can provide information on the causality of sudden transitions and may help to improve the knowledge on

  7. Earthquake early warning for the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake: performance evaluation of the current system and the next-generation methods of the Japan Meteorological Agency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodera, Yuki; Saitou, Jun; Hayashimoto, Naoki; Adachi, Shimpei; Morimoto, Masahiko; Nishimae, Yuji; Hoshiba, Mitsuyuki

    2016-12-01

    The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (Kumamoto earthquake sequence) is an extremely high-seismicity event that has been occurring across Kumamoto and Oita Prefectures in Japan since April 14, 2016 (JST). The earthquake early warning system of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) issued warnings for 19 events in the Kumamoto earthquake sequence from April 14 to 19, under some of the heaviest loading conditions since the system began operating in 2007. We analyzed the system performance for cases where a warning was issued and/or strong motion was actually observed. The results indicated that the system exhibited remarkable performance, especially for the most destructive earthquakes in the Kumamoto earthquake sequence. In addition, the system did not miss or seriously under-predict strong motion of any large earthquake from April 14 to 30. However, in four cases, the system issued over-predicted warnings due to the simultaneous occurrence of small earthquakes within a short distance, which implies a fundamental obstacle in trigger-data classifications based solely on arrival time. We also performed simulations using the integrated particle filter (IPF) and propagation of local undamped motion (PLUM) methods, which JMA plans to implement to address over-prediction for multiple simultaneous earthquakes and under-prediction for massive earthquakes with large rupture zones. The simulation results of the IPF method indicated that the IPF method is highly effective at minimizing over-prediction even for multiple simultaneous earthquakes within a short distance, since it adopts a trigger-data classification using velocity amplitude and hypocenter determinations using not-yet-arrived data. The simulation results of the PLUM method demonstrated that the PLUM method is capable of issuing warnings for destructive inland earthquakes more rapidly than the current system owing to the use of additional seismometers that can only be incorporated by this method.[Figure not available: see

  8. Pilot Studies with a Photogrammetric Glacier Lake Outburst Flood Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maas, H. G.; Mulsow, C.; Wendt, A.; Casassa, G.

    2012-07-01

    Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) depict an environmental risk with an increasing damage potential in many regions of the world. GLOFs are often caused by glacier margin lakes, which suddenly find a drainage path underneath the bottom of a glacier, which is destabilized and retreating as a consequence of local or global climate changes. In a typical GLOF event, a glacier margin lake may drain completely in 24 hours, causing a large flood wave in the area downstream the glacier. The paper documents some recent GLOF events in the Northern Patagonian Icefield (Chile) and presents a terrestrial photogrammetric glacier margin lake monitoring system. The system is based on a camera taking images at regular time intervals. In these images, variations of the water level can be detected by tracking the water-land interface at pre-defined image spots. Due to the drainage mechanism, which is characterized by progressive erosion and melting at the bottom of the glacier, GLOFs are indicated by a progressive water level drop in the lake. Water level changes may be detected with subpixel accuracy by image sequence processing methods. If a 3D model of the lake bottom topography (or at least one height profile through the lake) exists, water level changes in monoscopic image sequences may be transformed into volume loss. The basic idea herein is the intersection of a terrain profile with a water level detected in the image and projected into object space. The camera orientation is determined through a GPS-supported photogrammetric network. Camera orientation changes, which may for instance be induced by wind, can be compensated by tracking some fiducial marks in the image. The system has been used in a pilot study at two glacier margin lakes in the Northern Patagonian Icefield. These lakes have a depth of about 80 - 100 meters. The larger one has a length of 5 km and a maximum volume of about 200,000,000 cubic meters. During the pilot study, several GLOF events could be recorded

  9. Real time observations of coastal algal blooms by an early warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, J. H. W.; Hodgkiss, I. J.; Wong, K. T. M.; Lam, I. H. Y.

    2005-10-01

    In eutrophic sub-tropical coastal waters around Hong Kong, phytoplankton or unicellular microalgae can grow rapidly to very high concentrations under favourable environmental conditions. These harmful algal blooms (HABs) have led to massive fish kills, hypoxia, and beach closures. However, to date the causality and mechanism of coastal algal blooms are still poorly understood. A remotely controlled autonomous real time field monitoring system has been developed to continuously track the changes in chlorophyll fluorescence, dissolved oxygen and other hydro-meteorological variables at two representative mariculture zones. The system can give an alarm when a bloom is detected, so that timely manual water quality sampling can be carried out to supplement the telemetric data. During 2000-2003, the system has successfully tracked 19 algal blooms. In the shallow weakly flushed coastal water (depth 7-10 m, tidal current 5-19 cm s -1), the bloom is short-lived, typically lasting a few days to over a week, with chlorophyll and DO concentrations in the range of 20-40 mg m -3 and 2-15 g m -3, respectively. It is found that: (1) the chlorophyll concentration is strongly correlated with its past values in the previous week, suggesting an auto-regressive type of algal dynamics; (2) the dissolved oxygen can reach highly super-saturated levels (12 g m -3) during a diatom bloom, and decreases to below 4 g m -3 at the tail of the growth phase; (3) in contrast, a dinoflagellate bloom is characterized by a much more pronounced vertical structure. Diel vertical migration and aggregation to dense layers are clearly observed. Significant dissolved oxygen consumption is associated with the migration, resulting in DO drops by as much as 6 g m -3 during the bloom; (4) the predominance of diatoms and dinoflagellates at the two sites can be explained in terms of the different hydrographic and nutrient conditions (the N:P ratio). Net algal growth rate, sinking and swimming velocities are

  10. Environment Agency England flood warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strong, Chris; Walters, Mark; Haynes, Elizabeth; Dobson, Peter

    2015-04-01

    Context In England around 5 million homes are at risk of flooding. We invest significantly in flood prevention and management schemes but we can never prevent all flooding. Early alerting systems are fundamental to helping us reduce the impacts of flooding. The Environment Agency has had the responsibility for flood warning since 1996. In 2006 we invested in a new dissemination system that would send direct messages to pre-identified recipients via a range of channels. Since then we have continuously improved the system and service we offer. In 2010 we introduced an 'opt-out' service where we pre-registered landline numbers in flood risk areas, significantly increasing the customer base. The service has performed exceptionally well under intense flood conditions. Over a period of 3 days in December 2013, when England was experiencing an east coast storm surge, the system sent nearly 350,000 telephone messages, 85,000 emails and 70,000 text messages, with a peak call rate of around 37,000 per hour and 100% availability. The Floodline Warnings Direct (FWD) System FWD provides warnings in advance of flooding so that people at risk and responders can take action to minimise the impact of the flood. Warnings are sent via telephone, fax, text message, pager or e-mail to over 1.1 million properties located within flood risk areas in England. Triggers for issuing alerts and warnings include attained and forecast river levels and rainfall in some rapidly responding locations. There are three levels of warning: Flood Alert, Flood Warning and Severe Flood Warning, and a stand down message. The warnings can be updated to include relevant information to help inform those at risk. Working with our current provider Fujitsu, the system is under a programme of continuous improvement including expanding the 'opt-out' service to mobile phone numbers registered to at risk addresses, allowing mobile registration to the system for people 'on the move' and providing access to

  11. Early warning system for detection of microbial contamination of source waters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mogensen, Claus Tilsted; Bentien, Anders; Lau, Mogens

    2011-01-01

    Ensuring chemical and microbial water quality is an ever increasing important issue world-wide. Currently, determination of microbial water quality is a time (and money) consuming manual laboratory process. We have developed and field-tested an online and real-time sensor for measuring the microb....../or variation. This includes: water plants/water distribution networks, filtration systems (water purification), commercial buildings, swimming pools, waste water effluent, and industry in general.......Ensuring chemical and microbial water quality is an ever increasing important issue world-wide. Currently, determination of microbial water quality is a time (and money) consuming manual laboratory process. We have developed and field-tested an online and real-time sensor for measuring...... the microbial water quality of a wide range of source waters. The novel optical technique, in combination with advanced data analysis, yields a measure for the microbial content present in the sample. This gives a fast and reliable detection capability of microbial contamination of the source. Sample...

  12. The beginnings of crop phosphoproteomics: exploring early warning systems of stress.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christof eRampitsch

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available This review examines why a knowledge of plant protein phosphorylation events is important in devising strategies to protect crops from both biotic and abiotic stresses, and why proteomics should be included when studying stress pathways. Most of the achievements in elucidating phospho-signalling pathways in biotic and abiotic stress are reported from model systems: while these are discussed, this review attempts mainly to focus on work done with crops, with examples of achievements reported from rice, maize, wheat, grape, Brassica, tomato and soy bean after cold acclimation, hormonal and oxidative H2O2 treatment, salt stress, mechanical wounding or pathogen challenge. The challenges that remain to transfer this information into a format that can be used to protect crops against biotic and abiotic stresses are enormous. The tremendous increase in the speed and ease of DNA sequencing is poised to reveal the whole genomes of many crop species in the near future, which will facilitate phosphoproteomics and phosphogenomics research.

  13. Pi-EEWS: a low cost prototype for on-site earthquake early warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pazos, Antonio; Vera, Angel; Morgado, Arturo; Rioja, Carlos; Davila, Jose Martin; Cabieces, Roberto

    2017-04-01

    The Royal Spanish Navy Observatory (ROA), with the participation of the Cadiz University (UCA), have been developed the ALERTES-SC3 EEWS (regional approach) based on the SeisComP3 software package. This development has been done in the frame of the Spanish ALERT-ES (2011-2013) and ALERTES-RIM (2014-2016) projects, and now a days it is being tested in real time for south Iberia. Additionally, the ALERTES-SC3 system integrates an on-site EEWS software, developed by ROA-UCA, which is running for testing in real time in some seismic broad band stations of the WM network. Regional EEWS are not able to provide alerts in the area closet to the epicentre (blind zone), so a dense on-site EEWS is necessary. As it was mentioned, ALERTES-SC3 inludes the on-site software running on several WM stations but a more dense on-site stations are necessary to cover the blind zones. In order to densify this areas, inside of the "blind zones", a low cost on-site prototype "Pi-EEWS", based on a Raspberry Pi card and low cost acelerometers. In this work the main design ideas, the components and its capabilities will be shown.

  14. Design of monitoring and early warning system for geo-hazards in Three Gorges reservoir area using infrasound

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, N.; Zeng, Z. X.; Yang, Y. C.

    2009-04-01

    With the progress of the Three Gorges Dam Project, geological disasters have become increasingly prominent. The reservoir area prone to landslides, collapses, cracks, and earthquake disaster because the complex terrain and geological conditions. It is of significance to monitor and foresee geo-hazards in the reservoir area. Here we introduce our design of monitoring and early warning system for geo-hazards in Three Gorges reservoir area using infrasound. Infrasound may be abnormal during geological disasters, such as debris and earthquake occurred. The formation a d movement of debris flow in its basin will generate infrasound, and spread to the surrounding air medium. Velocity of infrasound is much larger than that of debris flow, so we can monitor and forecast debris flow using infrasound. The sudden vertical displacement brought about by earthquake will generate acoustic-gravity wave which can be observed in distance to monitor earthquake, especially to monitor earthquake precursors. So we try to monitor the geological disasters for the Three Gorges reservoir area in China by design a infrasound array monitor system. This work is supported by Chinese "985 Project". The infrasound monitor system is comprised of two observation stations arranged in Badong county inside the reservoir area and in Wuhan city, respectively. Each station has respectively arranged a kind of augmentable linear array in the form of quasi-uniform linear array and additional amending direction sensors. The linear array comprises eight sensors arranged in several different uniform intervals along a line. The amending direction sensor is situated at certain point in mid-perpendicular of linear array in order to reduce multiplicity in determine the direction of arrival. The sensors used in the system are CDC-2B capacitances infrasonic receiver which can observe frequency ranging 0~20Hz. The, measurement resolution is 750mV/LPa. Infrasonic wave signal collected by sensor is transferred from

  15. Integration of satellite radar interferometry into a GLOF early warning system: a pilot study from the Andes of Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strozzi, Tazio; Wiesmann, Andreas; Caduff, Rafael; Frey, Holger; Huggel, Christian; Kääb, Andreas; Cochachin, Alejo

    2015-04-01

    Glacier lake outburst floods (GLOF) have killed thousands of people in the Andes of Peru and in many other high-mountain regions of the world. The last years have seen progress in the integrative assessment of related hazards, through combined focus on the glacier lake, its dam properties, and processes in the lake surrounding, including the position and fluctuations of the glacier tongue and potential displacements and thermal conditions of adjacent slopes. Only a transient perspective on these factors allows anticipating potential future developments. For a very limited number of cases worldwide, where GLOF hazards and risks have been recognized, early warning systems (EWS) have been developed and implemented. Lake 513 in the Cordillera Blanca of Peru is one of those. Structural GLOF mitigation measures (tunnels to lower the lake level) have been undertaken in the 1990s and could successfully reduce, but not fully prevent, impacts of a GLOF such as that of April 2010 triggered by a rock/ice avalanche from Mount Hualcán. The EWS was implemented during recent years and disposes of automatic cameras, geophones, river run-off measurements, a meteorological station, and real-time communication with the municipality of Carhuaz and the communities in the catchment. An EWS is by definition limited in its concept and Earth Observation (EO) data offer a promising possibility to complement the assessment of the current hazard. In particular, the monitoring and early detection of slope instabilities in ice, rock and sediments that could impact the lake and trigger a GLOF is still a major challenge. Therefore, the potential of optical and SAR satellite data is currently tested for integration into the EWS within the project S:GLA:MO (Slope stability and Glacier LAke MOnitoring) project, funded by the European Space Agency (ESA) in collaboration with the GLACIARES project supported by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation. EO data (optical and SAR) are considered

  16. An analysis of financial crisis by an early warning system model: The case of the EU candidate countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vesna Bucevska

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to estimate the relative contribution of a wide array of determinants to outbreak of financial crises in the EU candidate countries (Croatia, Macedonia and Turkey and to identify the best-performing early warning indicators of financial crises. We have estimated a binomial logit model of the three EU candidate countries for the period 2005Q1 to 2009Q4 using actual quarterly data. It has been found that the capital account indicators (gross external debt relative to export and the financial sector variables (the domestic loans and the total bank deposits in relation to GDP have the highest contribution of all early warning indicators, which is in line with the previous studies of financial shocks in emerging markets. The obtained empirical results give support to the thesis that financial crises in the EU candidate countries can not be solely explained and predicted by only one group of variables, but by a number of different types of indicators. Based on our empirical findings, the EU candidate countries are strongly suggested to decrease their stock of external debt to GNP and to continually analyze and close monitor the financial deepening processes in their countries.

  17. 经营管控预测预警系统设计%The Design of Prediction and Early Warning System in Business Management

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李秀媚

    2012-01-01

    本文提出的管控预测预警系统模型就是运用科学的预报手段对部分关键指标提供快速预警,并对部分关键指标提供即期的预测,为经营管控提供科学有效支持的管控预测预警系统能有效指导公司运营。本文的重点是预测预警的模型、流程和方法。%In this paper,the author presents the modeling process of early warning model which is created by providing immediate forecast for part of key indicators using the scientific forecasting methods.Early warning system which provides scientific and effective support for management and control is essential to guide the company management.The model,procedure and method of early warning are discussed in this paper.

  18. Lessons Learned from Eight Years' Experience of Actual Operation, and Future Prospects of JMA Earthquake Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoshiba, M.; Nishimae, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Since 2007, experiences of actual operation of EEW have been gained by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). During this period, we have learned lessons from many M6- and M7-class earthquakes, and the Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake. During the Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake, JMA system functioned well: it issued a warning message more than 15 s before strong ground shaking in the Tohoku district (relatively near distance from the epicenter). However, it was not perfect: in addition to the problem of large extent of fault rupture, some false warning messages were issued due to the confusion of the system because of simultaneous multiple aftershocks which occurred at the wide rupture area. To address the problems, JMA will introduce two new methods into the operational system this year to start their tests, aiming at practical operation within a couple of years. One is Integrated Particle Filter (IPF) method, which is an integrated algorithm of multiple hypocenter determination techniques with Bayesian estimation, in which amplitude information is also used for hypocenter determination. The other is Propagation of Local Undamped Motion (PLUM) method, in which warning message is issued when strong ground shaking is detected at nearby stations around the target site (e.g., within 30 km). Here, hypocenter and magnitude are not required in PLUM. Aiming at application for several years later, we are investigating a new approach, in which current wavefield is estimated in real time, and then future wavefield is predicted time evolutionally from the current situation using physics of wave propagation. Here, hypocenter and magnitude are not necessarily required, but real-time observation of ground shaking is necessary. JMA also plans to predict long period ground motion (up to 8 s) with the EEW system for earthquake damage mitigation in high-rise buildings. Its test will start using the operational system in the near future.

  19. A simplified early-warning system for imminent landslide prediction based on failure index fragility curves developed through numerical analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ugur Ozturk

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Early-warning systems (EWSs are crucial to reduce the risk of landslide, especially where the structural measures are not fully capable of preventing the devastating impact of such an event. Furthermore, designing and successfully implementing a complete landslide EWS is a highly complex task. The main technical challenges are linked to the definition of heterogeneous material properties (geotechnical and geomechanical parameters as well as a variety of the triggering factors. In addition, real-time data processing creates a significant complexity, since data collection and numerical models for risk assessment are time consuming tasks. Therefore, uncertainties in the physical properties of a landslide together with the data management represent the two crucial deficiencies in an efficient landslide EWS. Within this study the application is explored of the concept of fragility curves to landslides; fragility curves are widely used to simulate systems response to natural hazards, i.e. floods or earthquakes. The application of fragility curves to landslide risk assessment is believed to simplify emergency risk assessment; even though it cannot substitute detailed analysis during peace-time. A simplified risk assessment technique can remove some of the unclear features and decrease data processing time. The method is based on synthetic samples which are used to define the approximate failure thresholds for landslides, taking into account the materials and the piezometric levels. The results are presented in charts. The method presented in this paper, which is called failure index fragility curve (FIFC, allows assessment of the actual real-time risk in a case study that is based on the most appropriate FIFC. The application of an FIFC to a real case is presented as an example. This method to assess the landslide risk is another step towards a more integrated dynamic approach to a potential landslide prevention system. Even if it does not define

  20. UncertiantyQuantificationinTsunamiEarlyWarningCalculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anunziato, Alessandro

    2016-04-01

    The objective of the Tsunami calculations is the estimation of the impact of waves caused by large seismic events on the coasts and the determination of potential inundation areas. In the case of Early Warning Systems, i.e. systems that should allow to anticipate the possible effects and give the possibility to react consequently (i.e. issue evacuation of areas at risk), this must be done in very short time (minutes) to be effective. In reality, the above estimation includes several uncertainty factors which make the prediction extremely difficult. The quality of the very first estimations of the seismic parameters is not very precise: the uncertainty in the determination of the seismic components (location, magnitude and depth) decreases with time because as time passes it is possible to use more and more seismic signals and the event characterization becomes more precise. On the other hand other parameters that are necessary to establish for the performance of a calculation (i.e. fault mechanism) are difficult to estimate accurately also after hours (and in some cases remain unknown) and therefore this uncertainty remains in the estimated impact evaluations; when a quick tsunami calculation is necessary (early warning systems) the possibility to include any possible future variation of the conditions to establish the "worst case scenario" is particularly important. The consequence is that the number of uncertain parameters is so large that it is not easy to assess the relative importance of each of them and their effect on the predicted results. In general the complexity of system computer codes is generated by the multitude of different models which are assembled into a single program to give the global response for a particular phenomenon. Each of these model has associated a determined uncertainty coming from the application of that model to single cases and/or separated effect test cases. The difficulty in the prediction of a Tsunami calculation response is

  1. Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Contributions to Strengthening Resilience and Sustainability for the East African Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budde, M. E.; Galu, G.; Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J. P.; Rowland, J.

    2014-12-01

    The Planning for Resilience in East Africa through Policy, Adaptation, Research, and Economic Development (PREPARED) is a multi-organizational project aimed at mainstreaming climate-resilient development planning and program implementation into the East African Community (EAC). The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has partnered with the PREPARED project to address three key development challenges for the EAC; 1) increasing resiliency to climate change, 2) managing trans-boundary freshwater biodiversity and conservation and 3) improving access to drinking water supply and sanitation services. USGS FEWS NET has been instrumental in the development of gridded climate data sets that are the fundamental building blocks for climate change adaptation studies in the region. Tools such as the Geospatial Climate Tool (GeoCLIM) have been developed to interpolate time-series grids of precipitation and temperature values from station observations and associated satellite imagery, elevation data, and other spatially continuous fields. The GeoCLIM tool also allows the identification of anomalies and assessments of both their frequency of occurrence and directional trends. A major effort has been put forth to build the capacities of local and regional institutions to use GeoCLIM to integrate their station data (which is not typically available to the public) into improved national and regional gridded climate data sets. In addition to the improvements and capacity building activities related to geospatial analysis tools, FEWS NET will assist in two other areas; 1) downscaling of climate change scenarios and 2) vulnerability impact assessments. FEWS NET will provide expertise in statistical downscaling of Global Climate Model output fields and work with regional institutions to assess results of other downscaling methods. Completion of a vulnerability impact assessment (VIA) involves the examination of sectoral consequences in identified climate "hot spots". FEWS NET

  2. An international intercomparison of national network systems used to provide early warning of a nuclear accident having transboundary implications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thompson, I.M.G.; Andersen, C.E.; Bøtter-Jensen, L.

    2000-01-01

    Since the Chernobyl accident many countries now operate large national networks of radiation detectors that continuously monitor radiation levels in order to give early warning of nuclear accidents having transboundary implications. The networks are used to provide data to assist in determining...... be harmonised so that it can be accurately interpreted by other countries and by international organisations. To assist with such harmonisation an intercomparison was held during May/June 1999 at the Riso Natural Environmental Radiation Measurement Station in Denmark and at the PTB underground laboratory...... for dosimetry and spectrometry (UDO) in Germany. The main aim of the intercomparison was to help ensure that results reported by different countries during a nuclear accident will be consistent and comparable. It is important that during an emergency the measurements of the plume doses or contamination levels...

  3. Driver Adaptive Warning Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-03-01

    corrective measures are being taken, such as: • A high steering wheel rate, indicating a correction. • A turn signal being active. • Brake being...fields include lane position, road curvature, steering angle, turn signal state, velocity, and system uncertainty. See Figure 3 for examples of these... turn signal when changing lanes. I am present in the van during the test run, sitting in the passenger seat. The touch screen that displays the RALPH

  4. Exploring the Role of Social Memory of Floods for Designing Flood Early Warning Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girons Lopez, Marc; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Grabs, Thomas; Halldin, Sven; Seibert, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Early warning systems are an important tool for natural disaster mitigation practices, especially for flooding events. Warnings rely on near-future forecasts to provide time to take preventive actions before a flood occurs, thus reducing potential losses. However, on top of the technical capacities, successful warnings require an efficient coordination and communication among a range of different actors and stakeholders. The complexity of integrating the technical and social spheres of warning systems has, however, resulted in system designs neglecting a number of important aspects such as social awareness of floods thus leading to suboptimal results. A better understanding of the interactions and feedbacks among the different elements of early warning systems is therefore needed to improve their efficiency and therefore social resilience. When designing an early warning system two important decisions need to be made regarding (i) the hazard magnitude at and from which a warning should be issued and (ii) the degree of confidence required for issuing a warning. The first decision is usually taken based on the social vulnerability and climatic variability while the second one is related to the performance (i.e. accuracy) of the forecasting tools. Consequently, by estimating the vulnerability and the accuracy of the forecasts, these two variables can be optimized to minimize the costs and losses. Important parameters with a strong influence on the efficiency of warning systems such as social awareness are however not considered in their design. In this study we present a theoretical exploration of the impact of social awareness on the design of early warning systems. For this purpose we use a definition of social memory of flood events as a proxy for flood risk awareness and test its effect on the optimization of the warning system design variables. Understanding the impact of social awareness on warning system design is important to make more robust warnings that can

  5. Discussion on Earthquake Forecasting and Early Warning

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Xiaodong; Jiang Haikun; Li Mingxiao

    2008-01-01

    Through analysis of natural and social attributes of earthquake forecasting,the relationship between the natural and social attributes of earthquake forecasting (early warning) has been discussed.Regarding the natural attributes of earthquake forecasting,it only attempts to forecast the magnitude,location and occurrence time of future earthquake based on the aualysis of observational data and relevant theories and taking into consideration the present understanding of seismogeny and earthquake generation.It need not consider the consequences an earthquake forecast involves,and its purpose is to check out the level of scientific understanding of earthquakes.In respect of the social aspect of earthquake forecasting,people also focus on the consequence that the forecasting involves,in addition to its natural aspect,such as the uncertainty of earthquake prediction itself,the impact of earthquake prediction,and the earthquake resistant capability of structures (buildings),lifeline works,etc.In a word,it highlights the risk of earthquake forecasting and tries to mitigate the earthquake hazard as much as possible.In this paper,the authors also discuss the scientific and social challenges faced in earthquake prediction and analyze preliminarily the meanings and content of earthquake early warning.

  6. Ecosystems for Early Warning: Potential Use of Bioindicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zommers, Z. A.; Sitati, A. M.; Habilov, M.

    2014-12-01

    Bioindicators are biological processes, species or communities, which are used to assess changes in the environment or environmental quality. Theoretically, they could also be used to provide advanced warning of hazards. They are inexpensive, locally relevant, and can encourage stakeholder participation in early warning system development and maintenance. While bioindicators have been identified for environmental problems such as air pollution and water pollution, and have been used to assess health of ecosystems, little information is available on bioindicators for climate related hazards. This presentation reviews possible biodindicators for droughts, wildfires and tropical cyclones, based on the results of a literature review. It will also present results from a household survey of 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso. Indigenous knowledge offers a wealth of potential bioindicators; including animal and insect behavior, and plant phenology. Yet significant study is needed to verify these indicators and evaluate them against criteria such as specificity, variability, monotonicity, practicality and relevance. Bioindicators may not be specific to individual hazards and may provide limited advanced warning, as response often occurs after the actual onset of the hazard. Furthermore, indicators may become increasingly unreliable due to climate change itself. There is a need for a large-scale assessment of hazard bioindicators, which should also include forecasts of bioindicator change under global warming, and a cost-benefit analysis of the value of integrating bioindicators into early warning systems. Lessons can be drawn from ethnopharmacology. Coordinated research on this topic could contribute to the resilience of both ecosystems and human livelihoods.

  7. The investigation of early warning signs of aggression in forensic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    prof Berno van Meijel; Mirjan van Leeuwen; Mieke Grypdonck; Frans Fluttert; Bjørkly Stal

    2012-01-01

    Aims and objectives. The Forensic Early Warning Signs of Aggression Inventory (FESAI) was developed to assist nurses and patients in identifying early warning signs and constructing individual early detection plans (EDP) for the prevention of aggressive incidents. The aims of this research were as f

  8. Implementation of the Geological Hazard Monitoring and Early Warning System Based on Multi - source Data -A Case Study of Deqin Tibetan County, Yunnan Province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Junsan; Chen, Guoping; Yuan, Lei

    2017-04-01

    The new technologies, such as 3D laser scanning, InSAR, GNSS, unmanned aerial vehicle and Internet of things, will provide much more data resources for the surveying and monitoring, as well as the development of Early Warning System (EWS). This paper provides the solutions of the design and implementation of a geological disaster monitoring and early warning system (GDMEWS), which includes landslides and debris flows hazard, based on the multi-sources of the date by use of technologies above mentioned. The complex and changeable characteristics of the GDMEWS are described. The architecture of the system, composition of the multi-source database, development mode and service logic, the methods and key technologies of system development are also analyzed. To elaborate the process of the implementation of the GDMEWS, Deqin Tibetan County is selected as a case study area, which has the unique terrain and diverse types of typical landslides and debris flows. Firstly, the system functional requirements, monitoring and forecasting models of the system are discussed. Secondly, the logic relationships of the whole process of disaster including pre-disaster, disaster rescue and post-disaster reconstruction are studied, and the support tool for disaster prevention, disaster reduction and geological disaster management are developed. Thirdly, the methods of the multi - source monitoring data integration and the generation of the mechanism model of Geological hazards and simulation are expressed. Finally, the construction of the GDMEWS is issued, which will be applied to management, monitoring and forecasting of whole disaster process in real-time and dynamically in Deqin Tibetan County. Keywords: multi-source spatial data; geological disaster; monitoring and warning system; Deqin Tibetan County

  9. Deep ocean early warning signals of an Atlantic MOC collapse

    CERN Document Server

    Feng, Qing Yi; Dijkstra, Henk A

    2014-01-01

    The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) is a crucial part of the climate system because of its associated northward heat transport. The present-day MOC is sensitive to freshwater anomalies and may collapse to a state with a strongly reduced northward heat transport. A future collapse of the Atlantic MOC has been identified as one of the most dangerous tipping points in the climate system. It is therefore crucial to develop early warning indicators for such a potential collapse based on relatively short time series. So far, attempts to use indicators based on critical slowdown have been marginally successful. Based on complex climate network reconstruction, we here present a promising new indicator for the MOC collapse that efficiently monitors spatial changes in deep ocean circulation. Through our analysis of the performance of this indicator we formulate optimal locations of measurement of the MOC to provide early warning signals of a collapse. Our results imply that an increase in spatial reso...

  10. Contribution of Near Real Time MODIS-Based Forest Disturbance Detection Products to a National Forest Threat Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruce, J.; Hargrove, W. W.; Gasser, J.; Smoot, J.; Kuper, P.

    2011-12-01

    This presentation discusses an effort to compute and post weekly MODIS forest change products for the conterminous US (CONUS), as part of a web-based national forest threat early warning system (EWS) known as the U.S. Forest Change Assessment Viewer (FCAV). The US Forest Service, NASA, USGS, and ORNL are working collaboratively to contribute weekly change products to this EWS. Large acreages of the nation's forests are being disturbed by a growing multitude of biotic and abiotic threats that can act either singularly or in combination. When common at regional scales, such disturbances can pose hazards and threats to floral and faunal bio-diversity, ecosystem sustainability, ecosystem services, and human settlements across the conterminous US. Regionally evident forest disturbances range from ephemeral periodic canopy defoliation to stand replacement mortality events due to insects, disease, fire, hurricanes, tornadoes, ice, hail, and drought. Mandated by the Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003, this forest threat EWS has been actively developed since 2006 and on-line since 2010. The FCAV system employs 250-meter MODIS NDVI-based forest change products as a key element of the system, providing regional and CONUS scale products in near real time every 8 days. Each of our forest change products in FCAV is based on current versus historical 24 day composites of NDVI data gridded at 231.66 meter resolution. Current NDVI is derived from USGS eMODIS expedited products. MOD13 NDVI is used for constructing historical baselines. CONUS change products are computed for all forests as % change in the current versus historical NDVI for a given 24 day period. Change products are computed according to previous year, previous 3 year and previous 8 year historical baselines. The use of multiple baselines enables apparent forest disturbance anomalies to be more fully assessed. CONUS forest change products are posted each week on the FCAV, a web mapping service constructed and

  11. Experiences on the development of a Community Based Early Warning System for mountain risks in northern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Carolina; Sterlacchini, Simone; de Amicis, Mattia; Fontana, Michele; Trozzi, Arianna; Frigerio, Ivan

    2010-05-01

    In the framework of the European project Mountain Risks (http://mountain-risks.eu/), one of the projects currently developed is a methodology to integrate risk management and evacuation emergency plans, focused on prevention as a key element for disaster risk reduction, applied in the Mountain Community Valtellina of Tirano, an area recurrently affected by several mountain hazards. Taking into account the actual state of disaster risk reduction initiatives in the study area, including the existence of a real time emergency plan based on GIS (Geographical Information Systems), DSS (Decision Support Systems), and ICT (Information & Communication Technology), but knowing the lack involvement of the general community in any of the preparation activities developed until the present and the lack of divulgation of the current emergency plan, it was decided that the methodology that could better adapt to the actual conditions of the study area would be a non structural Community Based Early Warning System (CBEWS). A CBEWS has been recognized by institutions as the UN and the INSDR, as an effective and important strategy for disaster risk reduction. This strategy is broadly used especially in developing countries and has proved its effectiveness in many disasters crisis all over the world. In spite of that, possibly for political and social reasons, there are really few applications of CBEWS in developed countries which has made the elaboration of this research project a particularly difficult process due to the lack of previous references with similar conditions to the one in the study area. Difficulties related to any multidisciplinary work which also involves the general community have been faced during the development of the project such as the differences in language (both the technical jargon of the different disciplines and the native language), time restrictions, the process of learning and adapting to different social structures, the process of contacting several

  12. Seasonal Water Balance Forecasts for Drought Early Warning in Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spirig, Christoph; Bhend, Jonas; Liniger, Mark

    2016-04-01

    Droughts severely impact Ethiopian agricultural production. Successful early warning for drought conditions in the upcoming harvest season therefore contributes to better managing food shortages arising from adverse climatic conditions. So far, however, meteorological seasonal forecasts have not been used in Ethiopia's national food security early warning system (i.e. the LEAP platform). Here we analyse the forecast quality of seasonal forecasts of total rainfall and of the meteorological water balance as a proxy for plant available water. We analyse forecast skill of June to September rainfall and water balance from dynamical seasonal forecast systems, the ECMWF System4 and EC-EARTH global forecasting systems. Rainfall forecasts outperform forecasts assuming a stationary climate mainly in north-eastern Ethiopia - an area that is particularly vulnerable to droughts. Forecasts of the water balance index seem to be even more skilful and thus more useful than pure rainfall forecasts. The results vary though for different lead times and skill measures employed. We further explore the potential added value of dynamically downscaling the forecasts through several dynamical regional climate models made available through the EU FP7 project EUPORIAS. Preliminary results suggest that dynamically downscaled seasonal forecasts are not significantly better compared with seasonal forecasts from the global models. We conclude that seasonal forecasts of a simple climate index such as the water balance have the potential to benefit drought early warning in Ethiopia, both due to its positive predictive skill and higher usefulness than seasonal mean quantities.

  13. Application of Seismic Array Processing to Tsunami Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, C.; Meng, L.

    2015-12-01

    Tsunami wave predictions of the current tsunami warning systems rely on accurate earthquake source inversions of wave height data. They are of limited effectiveness for the near-field areas since the tsunami waves arrive before data are collected. Recent seismic and tsunami disasters have revealed the need for early warning to protect near-source coastal populations. In this work we developed the basis for a tsunami warning system based on rapid earthquake source characterisation through regional seismic array back-projections. We explored rapid earthquake source imaging using onshore dense seismic arrays located at regional distances on the order of 1000 km, which provides faster source images than conventional teleseismic back-projections. We implement this method in a simulated real-time environment, and analysed the 2011 Tohoku earthquake rupture with two clusters of Hi-net stations in Kyushu and Northern Hokkaido, and the 2014 Iquique event with the Earthscope USArray Transportable Array. The results yield reasonable estimates of rupture area, which is approximated by an ellipse and leads to the construction of simple slip models based on empirical scaling of the rupture area, seismic moment and average slip. The slip model is then used as the input of the tsunami simulation package COMCOT to predict the tsunami waves. In the example of the Tohoku event, the earthquake source model can be acquired within 6 minutes from the start of rupture and the simulation of tsunami waves takes less than 2 min, which could facilitate a timely tsunami warning. The predicted arrival time and wave amplitude reasonably fit observations. Based on this method, we propose to develop an automatic warning mechanism that provides rapid near-field warning for areas of high tsunami risk. The initial focus will be Japan, Pacific Northwest and Alaska, where dense seismic networks with the capability of real-time data telemetry and open data accessibility, such as the Japanese HiNet (>800

  14. The Innovation Research of Financial Early-Warning Index Measurement

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    The period economic fluctuation is vital for an enterprise to exist and further develop,it directly affect the enterprise financial health.So,it is significant to build up financial early-warning index and measure the warning condition that the enterprise faces and take the effective measures to eliminate. We criticize Altman's Z calculating model and build up some new indexes for enterprise financial early-warning condition measuring and making sound decision.

  15. The early warning system of landslides and sediment runoffs using meteorological condition including rainfall-soil moisture index (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubota, T.; Silva, I. C.; Hasnawir, H.

    2009-12-01

    precipitation. C: constant, given as 8000 in Fukuoka (Kyushu, Japan), as 3750 in Sierra Madere Oriental (Nuevo Leon, Mexico), as 9000 in southern Sulawesi(Indonesia). Consequently, the forecast-warning system which has enough accuracy of 80% against sediment runoffs or debris flows for both wide range region with meteorological conditions and narrow region with the critical rain standard are established. However, in the region with lower soil permeability we may revise the standard rain by the compensation with the soil moisture content response such as increasing rate.

  16. Early warnings and missed alarms for abrupt monsoon transitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Z. A.; Kwasniok, F.; Boulton, C. A.; Cox, P. M.; Jones, R. T.; Lenton, T. M.; Turney, C. S. M.

    2015-12-01

    Palaeo-records from China demonstrate that the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) is dominated by abrupt and large magnitude monsoon shifts on millennial timescales, switching between periods of high and weak monsoon rains. It has been hypothesized that over these timescales, the EASM exhibits two stable states with bifurcation-type tipping points between them. Here we test this hypothesis by looking for early warning signals of past bifurcations in speleothem δ18O records from Sanbao Cave and Hulu Cave, China, spanning the penultimate glacial cycle. We find that although there are increases in both autocorrelation and variance preceding some of the monsoon transitions during this period, it is only immediately prior to the abrupt monsoon shift at the penultimate deglaciation (Termination II) that statistically significant increases are detected. To supplement our data analysis, we produce and analyse multiple model simulations that we derive from these data. We find hysteresis behaviour in our model simulations with transitions directly forced by solar insolation. However, signals of critical slowing down, which occur on the approach to a bifurcation, are only detectable in the model simulations when the change in system stability is sufficiently slow to be detected by the sampling resolution of the data set. This raises the possibility that the early warning "alarms" were missed in the speleothem data over the period 224-150 kyr and it was only at the monsoon termination that the change in the system stability was sufficiently slow to detect early warning signals.

  17. 大学生心理危机预警体系创新性研究%Innovation Research of College Students' Psychological Crisis Early Warning System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    左利华; 王丹凤

    2012-01-01

    危机预警系统是一种前瞻性的心理危机管理系统,是危机干预的前奏。通过总结国内高校的健全心理危机预警体制,分析危机预警体制存在的不足,提出建立发展性的特殊学生档案、探索心理危机爆发因素、设立班级心理巡视员、构建立体心理健康教育模式四点创新性建议。%Psychological crisis early warning system is a prospective psychological crisis management system.It is a prelude to the significance of crisis intervention.This paper introduced the current domestic most advanced psychological crisis early warning system.And on this basis,put forward some Innovative suggestions: first,establishment of the elastic special student archives;second,to explore the influence factors of psychological crisis;third,the establishment of psychological inspector;fourth,construction of three-dimensional model of mental health education.

  18. The performance review of EEWS(Earthquake Early Warning System) about Gyeongju earthquakes with Ml 5.1 and Ml 5.8 in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jung-Ho; Chi, Heon-Cheol; Lim, In-Seub; Seong, Yun-Jeong; Park, Jihwan

    2017-04-01

    EEW(Earthquake Early Warning) service to the public has been officially operated by KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) from 2015 in Korea. For the KMA's official EEW service, KIGAM has adopted ElarmS from UC Berkeley BSL and modified local magnitude relation, 1-D travel time curves and association procedures with real time waveform from about 201 seismic stations of KMA, KIGAM, KINS and KEPRI. There were two moderate size earthquakes with magnitude Ml 5.1 and Ml 5.8 close to Gyeongju city located at the southeastern part of Korea on Sep. 12. 2016. We have checked the performance of EEWS(Earthquake Early Warning System) named as TrigDB by KIGAM reviewing of these two Gyeongju earthquakes. The nearest station to epicenters of two earthquakes Ml 5.1(35.7697 N, 129.1904 E) and Ml 5.8(35.7632 N, 129.1898 E) was MKL which detected P phases in about 2.1 and 3.6 seconds after the origin times respectively. The first events were issued in 6.3 and 7.0 seconds from each origin time. Because of the unstable results on the early steps due to very few stations and unexpected automated analysis, KMA has the policy to wait for more 20 seconds for confirming the reliability. For these events KMA published EEW alarms in about 26 seconds after origin times with M 5.3 and M 5.9 respectively.

  19. Early warnings of hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick H. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2017-07-01

    Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on numerical weather prediction, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the type of input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that false alarms also contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

  20. Earthquake Early Warning Beta Users: Java, Modeling, and Mobile Apps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strauss, J. A.; Vinci, M.; Steele, W. P.; Allen, R. M.; Hellweg, M.

    2014-12-01

    Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) is a system that can provide a few to tens of seconds warning prior to ground shaking at a user's location. The goal and purpose of such a system is to reduce, or minimize, the damage, costs, and casualties resulting from an earthquake. A demonstration earthquake early warning system (ShakeAlert) is undergoing testing in the United States by the UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, Caltech, ETH Zurich, University of Washington, the USGS, and beta users in California and the Pacific Northwest. The beta users receive earthquake information very rapidly in real-time and are providing feedback on their experiences of performance and potential uses within their organization. Beta user interactions allow the ShakeAlert team to discern: which alert delivery options are most effective, what changes would make the UserDisplay more useful in a pre-disaster situation, and most importantly, what actions users plan to take for various scenarios. Actions could include: personal safety approaches, such as drop cover, and hold on; automated processes and procedures, such as opening elevator or fire stations doors; or situational awareness. Users are beginning to determine which policy and technological changes may need to be enacted, and funding requirements to implement their automated controls. The use of models and mobile apps are beginning to augment the basic Java desktop applet. Modeling allows beta users to test their early warning responses against various scenarios without having to wait for a real event. Mobile apps are also changing the possible response landscape, providing other avenues for people to receive information. All of these combine to improve business continuity and resiliency.

  1. Diagnosis and Early Warning of Wind Turbine Faults Based on Cluster Analysis Theory and Modified ANFIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quan Zhou

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The construction of large-scale wind farms results in a dramatic increase of wind turbine (WT faults. The failure mode is also becoming increasingly complex. This study proposes a new model for early warning and diagnosis of WT faults to solve the problem of Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA systems, given that the traditional threshold method cannot provide timely warning. First, the characteristic quantity of fault early warning and diagnosis analyzed by clustering analysis can obtain in advance abnormal data in the normal threshold range by considering the effects of wind speed. Based on domain knowledge, Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS is then modified to establish the fault early warning and diagnosis model. This approach improves the accuracy of the model under the condition of absent and sparse training data. Case analysis shows that the effect of the early warning and diagnosis model in this study is better than that of the traditional threshold method.

  2. Early warning of geohazards using space technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tronin, A.

    The societal impact of geological hazards is enormous. Every year volcanoes, earthquakes, landslides and subsidence claim thousands of lives, injure many thousands more, devastate peoples' homes and destroy their livelihoods. The costs of damaged infrastructure are taken higher still by insurance premiums and run into the billions in any currency. This affects rich and poor alike, but with a disproportionate impact on the developing world. As the human population increases and more people live in hazardous areas, this impact grows unsustainably. It must be reduced and that requires increased understanding of the geohazards, improved preparedness for disasters and better ways to manage them when they occur. The inter-related disasters that comprise geohazards are all driven directly by geological processes and share ground deformation as a common thread. This means that they can be addressed using similar technology and understood using related scientific modelling processes. Geohazards are a complex phenomenon and no one method can provide all the necessary information and understanding. It is essential that Earth Observation data are integrated with airborne data, in-situ observations and associated historical data archives, and then analysed using GIS and other modelling tools if these hazards are to be understood and managed. Geohazards occur in one form or another in every country. They do not respect national boundaries and have the potential to cause changes in the atmosphere that will be truly global in effect, requiring a global observing infrastructure to monitor them. The current situation in space research of early warning of geohazards indicates a few phenomena, related with geohazard processes: Earth's deformation, surface temperature, gas and aerosol emission, electromagnetic disturbances in ionosphere. Both horizontal and vertical deformations scaled about tens centimetres and meters measured after the shock. Such deformations are recorded by In

  3. A European precipitation index for extreme rain-storm and flash flood early warning

    OpenAIRE

    ALFIERI LORENZO; THIELEN DEL POZO Jutta

    2012-01-01

    Extreme rain-storms are known for triggering devastating flash floods in various regions of Europe and particularly along the Mediterranean coasts. Despite recent notable advances in weather forecasting, most operational early warning systems for extreme rainstorms and flash floods are based on rainfall estimation, rather than on forecasts. As a result, warning lead times are bounded to few hours and warnings are usually issued when the event is already taking place. This work proposes a n...

  4. The Principles about Building Library Crisis Early Warning System%图书馆危机预警体系的构建原则

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    秦殿启; 潘松华; 孙玉琴

    2012-01-01

    危机预警是图书馆事业适应环境变革的必然要求,是图书馆危机管理的核心内容。基于文化视域,从共性、个性和传承性三个方面提出图书馆预警体系的构建原则,包括前瞻性、科学性、高效性、灵活性、参与性原则,分类、沟通和信誉并重原则,系统化和法制化原则,从而为图书馆又好又快发展提供理论思路和实践指导。%Crisis early warning is a necessary requirement for changes which libraries adapt to the environment, and is the core content of the library crisis management. Based on cultural sights, this article put forward ten principles that Shall comply with building library early warning system from three aspects, the common, personality and heritage,including adhere to the forward - looking, scientific, efficient, flexible, participatory principles, adhere to classification, communication and credibility both princi- ples, adhere to the principles of systematic and rule of law, aimed at sound and rapid development for the library to provide theoretical and practical ideas guidance.

  5. 非政府组织参与食品安全预警体系的标准化探讨%Standardization of Non-governmental Organization Participation in the Food Security Early Warning System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李仲超

    2011-01-01

    Food security early warning system has excessive reliance on the government. Based on the analysis of non-governmental organization's characteristics, this paper clarify the basis relationshop between NGOs' characteristics and food security early warning system, puts forward that non-governmental organizations involved in food safety early warning system should be normalized and standardized, to improve food safety early warning system construction, promote food security early warning as the whole behavior, will play a positive role.%食品安全预警体系过分依赖以政府为主体。本文通过对非政府组织特性的分析,阐明了其特性与食品安全预警体系的基础关系,提出非政府组织参与食品安全预警体系应规范和标准化,对完善食品安全预警体系的建设,促使食品安全预警成为全民的行为,将起到积极的作用。

  6. The EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory and allied networks, the makings of nascent Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning System in Western North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattioli, Glen; Mencin, David; Hodgkinson, Kathleen; Meertens, Charles; Phillips, David; Blume, Fredrick; Berglund, Henry; Fox, Otina; Feaux, Karl

    2016-04-01

    The NSF-funded GAGE Facility, managed by UNAVCO, operates approximately ~1300 GNSS stations distributed across North and Central America and in the circum-Caribbean. Following community input starting in 2011 from several workshops and associated reports,UNAVCO has been exploring ways to increase the capability and utility of the geodetic resources under its management to improve our understanding in diverse areas of geophysics including properties of seismic, volcanic, magmatic and tsunami deformation sources. Networks operated by UNAVCO for the NSF have the potential to profoundly transform our ability to rapidly characterize events, provide rapid characterization and warning, as well as improve hazard mitigation and response. Specific applications currently under development include earthquake early warning, tsunami early warning, and tropospheric modeling with university, commercial, non-profit and government partners on national and international scales. In the case of tsunami early warning, for example, an RT-GNSS network can provide multiple inputs in an operational system starting with rapid assessment of earthquake sources and associated deformation, which leads to the initial model of ocean forcing and tsunami generation. In addition, terrestrial GNSScan provide direct measurements of the tsunami through the associated traveling ionospheric disturbance from several 100's of km away as they approach the shoreline,which can be used to refine tsunami inundation models. Any operational system like this has multiple communities that rely on a pan-Pacific real-time open data set. Other scientific and operational applications for high-rate GPS include glacier and ice sheet motions, tropospheric modeling, and better constraints on the dynamics of space weather. Combining existing data sets and user communities, for example seismic data and tide gauge observations, with GNSS and Met data products has proven complicated because of issues related to metadata

  7. Researches on the Nankai trough mega thrust earthquake seismogenic zones using real time observing systems for advanced early warning systems and predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneda, Yoshiyuki

    2015-04-01

    We recognized the importance of real time monitoring on Earthquakes and Tsunamis Based on lessons learned from 2004 Sumatra Earthquake/Tsunamis and 2011 East Japan Earthquake. We deployed DONET1 and are developing DONET2 as real time monitoring systems which are dense ocean floor networks around the Nankai trough seismogenic zone Southwestern Japan. Total observatories of DONE1 and DONET2 are 51 observatories equipped with multi kinds of sensors such as the accelerometer, broadband seismometer, pressure gauge, difference pressure gauge, hydrophone and thermometer in each observatory. These systems are indispensable for not only early warning of Earthquakes/ Tsunamis, but also researches on broadband crustal activities around the Nankai trough seismogenic zone for predictions. DONET1 detected offshore tsunamis 15 minutes earlier than onshore stations at the 2011 East Japan earthquake/tsunami. Furthermore, DONET1/DONET2 will be expected to monitor slow events such as low frequency tremors and slow earthquakes for the prediction researches. Finally, the integration of observations and simulation researches will contribute to estimate of seismic stage changes from the inter-seismic to pre seismic stage. I will introduce applications of DONET1/DONET2 data and advanced simulation researches.

  8. Quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of a rockfall warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bründl, Michael; Sättele, Martina; Krautblatter, Michael; Straub, Daniel

    2016-04-01

    Rockslides and rockfalls can pose high risk to human settlements and traffic infrastructure. In addition to structural mitigation measures like rockfall nets, warning systems are increasingly installed to reduce rockfall risks. Whereas for structural mitigation measures with reducing effects on the spatial extent a structured evaluation method is existing, no or only few approaches to assess the effectiveness for warning systems are known. Especially for higher magnitude rockfalls structural mitigation measures are not effective, and reliable early warning systems will be essential in future. In response to that, we developed a classification and a framework to assess the reliability and effectiveness of early warning systems (Sättele et al, 2015a; 2016). Here, we demonstrate an application for the rockfall warning system installed in Preonzo prior to a major rockfall in May 2012 (Sättele et al., 2015b). We show that it is necessary to design such a warning system as fail-safe construction, which has to incorporate components with low failure probabilities, high redundancy, low warning thresholds, and additional control systems. With a hypothetical probabilistic analysis, we investigate the effect of the risk attitude of decision makers and of the number of sensors on the probability of detecting an event and on initiating a timely evacuation, as well as on related intervention cost. We conclude that it is possible to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of warning systems, which helps to optimize mitigation strategies against rockfall events. References Sättele, M., Bründl, M., and Straub, D.: Reliability and effectiveness of warning systems for natural hazards: concept and application to debris flow warning, Rel. Eng. Syst. Safety, 142, 192-202, 2015a. Sättele, M., Krautblatter, M., Bründl, M., and Straub, D.: Forecasting rock slope failure: How reliable and effective are warning systems?, Landslides, 605, 1-14, 2015b. Sättele, M., Bründl, M., and

  9. Earthquake Early Warning using a Seismogeodetic Approach: An operational plan for Cascadia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowell, B. W.; Bodin, P.; Vidale, J. E.; Schmidt, D. A.; Melbourne, T. I.; Scrivner, C. W.; Santillan, V. M.; Szeliga, W. M.; Minson, S. E.; Bock, Y.; Melgar, D.

    2013-12-01

    We present an operational plan for implementing combined seismic and geodetic time series in an earthquake early warning system for Cascadia. The Cascadian subduction zone presents one of the greatest risks for a megaquake in the continental United States. Ascertaining the full magnitude and extent of large earthquakes is problematic for earthquake early warning systems due to instability when double integrating strong-motion records to ground displacement. This problem can be mitigated by augmenting earthquake early warning systems with real-time GPS data, allowing for the progression and spatial extent of large earthquakes to be better resolved due to GPS's ability to measure both dynamic and permanent displacements. The Pacific Northwest Seismic Network (PNSN) at the University of Washington is implementing an integrated seismogeodetic approach to earthquake early warning. Regional GPS data are provided by the Pacific Northwest Geodetic Array (PANGA) at Central Washington University. Precise Point Positioning (PPP) solutions are sent from PANGA to the PNSN through JSON formatted streams and processed with a Python-based quality control (QC) module. The QC module also ingest accelerations from PNSN seismic stations through the Earthworm seismic acquisition and processing system for the purpose of detecting outliers and Kalman filtering when collocated instruments exist. The QC module outputs time aligned and cleaned displacement waveforms to ActiveMQ, an XML-based messaging broker that is currently used in seismic early warning architecture. Earthquake characterization modules read displacement information from ActiveMQ when triggered by warnings from ElarmS earthquake early warning algorithm. Peak ground displacement and P-wave scaling relationships from Kalman filtered waveforms provide initial magnitude estimates. Additional modules perform more complex source modeling such as centroid moment tensors and slip inversions that characterize the full size and

  10. An Infrastructure for a Traffic Warning System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønsted, Jeppe; Hansen, Klaus Marius; Kristensen, Lars Michael

    2005-01-01

    The LIWAS Trafc Warning System aims at providingearly warning to vehicles about road conditions, such aswhether the road is slippery. The LIWAS system is currentlybeing developed and consists of two main parts:sensors for determining the state of the road and a communicationinfrastructure support...

  11. An Infrastructure for a Traffic Warning System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønsted, Jeppe; Hansen, Klaus Marius; Kristensen, Lars Michael

    2005-01-01

    The LIWAS Trafc Warning System aims at providingearly warning to vehicles about road conditions, such aswhether the road is slippery. The LIWAS system is currentlybeing developed and consists of two main parts:sensors for determining the state of the road and a communicationinfrastructure support...

  12. Assessing the performance of regional landslide early warning models: the EDuMaP method

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    M. Calvello; L. Piciullo

    2015-01-01

    The paper proposes the evaluation of the technical performance of a regional landslide early warning system by means of an original approach, called EDuMaP method, comprising three successive steps...

  13. Urban Flood Warning Systems using Radar Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, N.; Bedient, P. B.

    2013-12-01

    There have been an increasing number of urban areas that rely on weather radars to provide accurate precipitation information for flood warning purposes. As non-structural tools, radar-based flood warning systems can provide accurate and timely warnings to the public and private entities in urban areas that are prone to flash floods. The wider spatial and temporal coverage from radar increases flood warning lead-time when compared to rain and stream gages alone. The Third Generation Rice and Texas Medical Center (TMC) Flood Alert System (FAS3) has been delivering warning information with 2 to 3 hours of lead time and a R2 value of 93% to facility personnel in a readily understood format for more than 50 events in the past 15 years. The current FAS utilizes NEXRAD Level II radar rainfall data coupled with a real-time hydrologic model (RTHEC-1) to deliver warning information. The system has a user-friendly dashboard to provide rainfall maps, Google Maps based inundation maps, hydrologic predictions, and real-time monitoring at the bayou. This paper will evaluate its reliable performance during the recent events occurring in 2012 and 2013 and the development of a similar radar-based flood warning system for the City of Sugar Land, Texas. Having a significant role in the communication of flood information, FAS marks an important step towards the establishment of an operational and reliable flood warning system for flood-prone urban areas.

  14. Study of Disseminating Landslide Early Warning Information in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koay, Swee Peng; Lateh, Habibah; Tien Tay, Lea; Ahamd, Jamilah; Chan, Huah Yong; Sakai, Naoki; Jamaludin, Suhaimi

    2015-04-01

    In Malaysia, rain induced landslides are occurring more often than before. The Malaysian Government allocates millions of Malaysian Ringgit for slope monitoring and slope failure remedial measures in the budget every year. In rural areas, local authorities also play a major role in monitoring the slope to prevent casualty by giving information to the residents who are staying near to the slopes. However, there are thousands of slopes which are classified as high risk slopes in Malaysia. Implementing site monitoring system in these slopes to monitor the movement of the soil in the slopes, predicting the occurrence of slopes failure and establishing early warning system are too costly and almost impossible. In our study, we propose Accumulated Rainfall vs. Rainfall Intensity prediction method to predict the slope failure by referring to the predicted rainfall data from radar and the rain volume from rain gauges. The critical line which determines if the slope is in danger, is generated by simulator with well-surveyed the soil property in the slope and compared with historical data. By establishing such predicting system, the slope failure warning information can be obtained and disseminated to the surroundings via SMS, internet and siren. However, establishing the early warning dissemination system is not enough in disaster prevention, educating school children and the community by giving knowledge on landslides, such as landslide's definition, how and why does the slope failure happen and when will it fail, to raise the risk awareness on landslides will reduce landslides casualty, especially in rural area. Moreover, showing video on the risk and symptom of landslides in school will also help the school children gaining the knowledge of landslides. Generating hazard map and landslides historical data provides further information on the occurrence of the slope failure. In future, further study on fine tuning of landslides prediction method, applying IT technology to

  15. 高速铁路地震预警系统现状综述%An overview of earthquake early warning systems for high speed railways and its application to Beijing-Shanghai high speed railway

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙利; 钟红; 林皋

    2011-01-01

    Earthquake is a disastrous hazard regarding the safety and stability of high speed trains. Considering the fact that earthquake forecast is not matured yet, development of earthquake early warning system is a very important countermeasure for earthquake disaster mitigation. Quite a few high speed railways are being or to be built to improve traffic condition in China, but there' s yet no existing on the earthquake early warning system for high speed railways in Chinese mainland. Basic principles of the earthquake early warning system and its application to railways are presented. The state-of-the-art of the earthquake early warning systems for high speed railways around the world is introduced. Main points in development of the earthquake early warning system for high speed railways are discussed , including threshold for early warning, layout of monitoring stations, train operation and structure of the early warning system, with particular attention paid to the Beijing-Shanghai high speed railway. The present review is expected to be of significance to the development of the early warning system for high speed railways in China.%地震是对高速列车安全运营威胁最大的自然灾害.在目前地震预报技术还很不成熟的情况下,发展地震预警技术是当前减轻或避免地震对高速铁路危害的重要措施.文中阐述了地震预警技术的原理及其在铁路方面的应用.对国内外已有的高速铁路地震预警系统的发展和现状进行了介绍.结合国内外的发展现状和京沪高速铁路对地震预警系统的实际需求,对我国高速铁路的地震预警系统进行了探讨.主要针对高速铁路预警系统的报警阈值,监测点的布置,列车控制方式和预警系统的基本组成等关键问题的研究现状进行了总结和探讨.对我国高速铁路地震预警系统的建立具有重要的借鉴意义.

  16. Demonstration of a Novel Synchrophasor-based Situational Awareness System: Wide Area Power System Visualization, On-line Event Replay and Early Warning of Grid Problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosso, A.

    2012-12-31

    Since the large North Eastern power system blackout on August 14, 2003, U.S. electric utilities have spent lot of effort on preventing power system cascading outages. Two of the main causes of the August 14, 2003 blackout were inadequate situational awareness and inadequate operator training In addition to the enhancements of the infrastructure of the interconnected power systems, more research and development of advanced power system applications are required for improving the wide-area security monitoring, operation and planning in order to prevent large- scale cascading outages of interconnected power systems. It is critically important for improving the wide-area situation awareness of the operators or operational engineers and regional reliability coordinators of large interconnected systems. With the installation of large number of phasor measurement units (PMU) and the related communication infrastructure, it will be possible to improve the operators’ situation awareness and to quickly identify the sequence of events during a large system disturbance for the post-event analysis using the real-time or historical synchrophasor data. The purpose of this project was to develop and demonstrate a novel synchrophasor-based comprehensive situational awareness system for control centers of power transmission systems. The developed system named WASA (Wide Area Situation Awareness) is intended to improve situational awareness at control centers of the power system operators and regional reliability coordinators. It consists of following main software modules: • Wide-area visualizations of real-time frequency, voltage, and phase angle measurements and their contour displays for security monitoring. • Online detection and location of a major event (location, time, size, and type, such as generator or line outage). • Near-real-time event replay (in seconds) after a major event occurs. • Early warning of potential wide-area stability problems. The system has been

  17. Potential of VIIRS Time Series Data for Aiding the USDA Forest Service Early Warning System for Forest Health Threats: A Gypsy Moth Defoliation Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruce, Joseph P.; Ryan, Robert E.; McKellip, Rodney

    2008-01-01

    The Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003 mandated that a national forest threat Early Warning System (EWS) be developed. The USFS (USDA Forest Service) is currently building this EWS. NASA is helping the USFS to integrate remotely sensed data into the EWS, including MODIS data for monitoring forest disturbance at broad regional scales. This RPC experiment assesses the potential of VIIRS (Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data for contribution to the EWS. In doing so, the RPC project employed multitemporal simulated VIIRS and MODIS data for detecting and monitoring forest defoliation from the non-native Eurasian gypsy moth (Lymantria despar). Gypsy moth is an invasive species threatening eastern U.S. hardwood forests. It is one of eight major forest insect threats listed in the Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003. This RPC experiment is relevant to several nationally important mapping applications, including carbon management, ecological forecasting, coastal management, and disaster management

  18. Evaluating the Use of Remote Sensing Data in the U.S. Agency for International Development Famine Early Warning Systems Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly Elizabeth; Brickley, Elizabeth B

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)'s Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) provides monitoring and early warning support to decision makers responsible for responding to food insecurity emergencies on three continents. FEWS NET uses satellite remote sensing and ground observations of rainfall and vegetation in order to provide information on drought, floods, and other extreme weather events to decision makers. Previous research has presented results from a professional review questionnaire with FEWS NET expert end-users whose focus was to elicit Earth observation requirements. The review provided FEWS NET operational requirements and assessed the usefulness of additional remote sensing data. We analyzed 1342 food security update reports from FEWS NET. The reports consider the biophysical, socioeconomic, and contextual influences on the food security in 17 countries in Africa from 2000 to 2009. The objective was to evaluate the use of remote sensing information in comparison with other important factors in the evaluation of food security crises. The results show that all 17 countries use rainfall information, agricultural production statistics, food prices, and food access parameters in their analysis of food security problems. The reports display large-scale patterns that are strongly related to history of the FEWS NET program in each country. We found that rainfall data were used 84% of the time, remote sensing of vegetation 28% of the time, and gridded crop models 10% of the time, reflecting the length of use of each product in the regions. More investment is needed in training personnel on remote sensing products to improve use of data products throughout the FEWS NET system.

  19. Landslide susceptibility and early warning model for shallow landslide in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chun-Ming; Wei, Lun-Wei; Chi, Chun-Chi; Chang, Kan-Tsun; Lee, Chyi-Tyi

    2017-04-01

    This study aims to development a regional susceptibility model and warning threshold as well as the establishment of early warning system in order to prevent and reduce the losses caused by rainfall-induced shallow landslides in Taiwan. For the purpose of practical application, Taiwan is divided into nearly 185,000 slope units. The susceptibility and warning threshold of each slope unit were analyzed as basic information for disaster prevention. The geological characteristics, mechanism and the occurrence time of landslides were recorded for more than 900 cases through field investigation and interview of residents in order to discuss the relationship between landslides and rainfall. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the landslide susceptibility and an I3-R24 rainfall threshold model was proposed for the early warning of landslides. The validations of recent landslide cases show that the model was suitable for the warning of regional shallow landslide and most of the cases can be warned 3 to 6 hours in advanced. We also propose a slope unit area weighted method to establish local rainfall threshold on landslide for vulnerable villages in order to improve the practical application. Validations of the local rainfall threshold also show a good agreement to the occurrence time reported by newspapers. Finally, a web based "Rainfall-induced Landslide Early Warning System" is built and connected to real-time radar rainfall data so that landslide real-time warning can be achieved. Keywords: landslide, susceptibility analysis, rainfall threshold

  20. ANALYSIS OF FORECASTING METHODS FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF EARLY WARNING CONCEPT IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florin POPESCU

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Early warning system (EWS based on a reliable forecasting process has become a critical component of the management of large complex industrial projects in the globalized transnational environment. The purpose of this research is to critically analyze the forecasting methods from the point of view of early warning, choosing those useful for the construction of EWS. This research addresses complementary techniques, using Bayesian Networks, which addresses both uncertainties and causality in project planning and execution, with the goal of generating early warning signals for project managers. Even though Bayesian networks have been widely used in a range of decision-support applications, their application as early warning systems for project management is still new.

  1. 旅游危机预警的BP神经网络模型及应用%Application of BP Neural Network Model in Tourism Crisis Early Warning System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王汉斌; 李晓峰

    2012-01-01

    The development of tourism faces many crises, such as war, disease and natural disasters. This thesis analyzed the factors that affect tourism development, selected the early warning indicators which gave tourism the most profound influence, combined with the date sample of related indexes, applied the BP neural network technology and established a warning system based on the BP neural network model. With the neural network toolbox in the MATLAB for early warning simulation experiment and detection, it proved that the model had a good training performance and high early warning accuracy, which is useful for tourism crisis early warning, detection and analysis in China.%从分析影响旅游业发展的因素出发,选择了对旅游业发展影响最大的危机预警指标,并结合相关数据样本,应用BP神经网络技术,研究建立一种基于BP神经网络模型的旅游危机预警系统,借助MATLAB中的神经网络工具箱进行仿真训练和检测,训练结果表明模型性能良好,预警准确率高,能够很好的用来对旅游危机进行预警、检测和分析研究.

  2. 江苏省出口预警体系存在的问题及完善策略%Problems and Countermeasures of Early Warning System of Export in Jiangsu Province

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    魏少婷

    2012-01-01

    As a major export province, Jiangsu has encountered increasing trade frictions, which makes the estab- lishment and improvement of an early warning system of export extremely significant. Based on the analysis of cur- rent problems in the early warning system of export, this paper puts forward some solutions to integrate resources, build up comprehensive warning platforms and improve assessment mechanism of early warning system. However, many problems are hindering the development of the system, including the waste of related resources, causing by the inefficient communications among organizations and agencies, low level of function, randomness of warning in- formation, no improvement on the system and lack of evaluation mechanism. To enhance the early warning system, we should integrate different resources to build a comprehensive platform strengthened by scientific and technologi- cal methods, as well as build evaluation and improvement mechanisms.%江苏省作为出口大省,遭遇的贸易摩擦日趋频繁,建立和完善出口预警体系意义重大。目前存在的主要问题是各机构之间缺乏有效的联系,造成预警资源的浪费;预警层次低;预警信息随意性强;缺乏预警效果的改良和预警体系的评价机制。完善出口预警体系,应该整合资源,构建综合性预警平台,加强科学研究,建立预警评估机制和改良机制等。

  3. An Ontological Representation for Tsunami Early Warning System%海啸早期预警系统的一种本体式表达

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郭立群; 王欣滔; 王笑赤; 卢海涛

    2014-01-01

    Wireless sensors are used for monitoring environments such as climate change , water quality and disaster management .Dis-aster management is a critical and emergent operation now , especially tsunami warning and prediction system .This work is based on the study of Regional Hydrology Situation Geographic Information Service System (RHSGISS), which runs a ontological representation of the tsunami early warning system .The early warning system comprises of systems like seismic stations , Bottom Pressure Recorder ( BPR) and tide gauges .The critical task of the warning system is interpretation of the complex multidimensional data generated by va -rious sensors and interoperability among the systems and handling of heterogeneous data .The critical issues now is in developing a methodology to integrate heterogeneous data received from various components of tsunami early warning system and providing web based data service .Facing the specific task of surface monitoring and emergency response , we created a “BeiDou” -based GPNT service architecture by using the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) framework, so that all of the users connecting to the Space -Air-Ground earth observation network could sharing the convenience of interpretability and flexibility . Ontologies are used as a means for solving the information heterogeneity problems because of their capability to provide explicit mean -ing to the information.In this paper we propose a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) model for the interoperability of sensor net-works data and semantics of the data .The purpose of the paper is to provide more meaningful information for Tsunami early warning system using ontology and Jena rule representation .%无线传感器通常用于环境监测,如气候变化、水质和监控灾害管理等。目前,灾害管理是一项十分关键和紧迫的工作,在海啸预警和预测系统方面尤为突出。本文在研制区

  4. [System construction of early warning for ecological security at cultural and natural heritage mixed sites and its application: a case study of Wuyishan Scenery District].

    Science.gov (United States)

    You, Wei-Bin; He, Dong-Jin; Qin, De-Hua; Ji, Zhi-Rong; Wu, Li-Yun; Yu, Jian-An; Chen, Bing-Rong; Tan, Yong

    2014-05-01

    This paper proposed a new concept of ecological security for protection by a comprehensive analysis of the contents and standards of world heritage sites. A frame concept model named "Pressure-State-Control" for early warning of ecological security at world heritage mixed sites was constructed and evaluation indicators of this frame were also selected. Wuyishan Scenery District was chosen for a case study, which has been severely disturbed by natural and artificial factors. Based on the frame model of "Pressure-State-Control" and by employing extension analysis, the matter-element model was established to assess the ecological security status of this cultural and natural world heritage mixed site. The results showed that the accuracy of ecological security early warning reached 84%. Early warning rank was I level (no alert status) in 1997 and 2009, but that in 2009 had a higher possibility to convert into II level. Likewise, the early-warning indices of sensitive ranks were different between 1997 and 2009. Population density, population growth rate, area index for tea garden, cultivated land owned per capita, level of drought, and investment for ecological and environmental construction were the main limiting factors to hinder the development of ecological security from 2009 to future. In general, the status of Wuyishan Scenery District ecological security was relatively good and considered as no alert level, while risk conditions also existed in terms of a few early-warning indicators. We still need to pay more attention to serious alert indicators and adopt effective prevention and control measures to maintain a good ecological security status of this heritage site.

  5. Early warning for geo-hazards based on the weather condition in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chuanzheng LIU; Yanhui LIU; Mingsheng WEN; Can TANG; Tiefeng LI; Jianfa LIAN

    2006-01-01

    According to national early warning practice for geo-hazards from 2003 to 2005, it is systematically concluded that the basic characteristics of geo-hazards, early warning method and forecast result based on the geological maps of China in a scale 1∶6 000 000. With the contrast of different characters between sustained rainfall and typhoon rainfall inducing geo-hazards, the disaster reduction result and some problems are preliminarily analyzed. Some basic recognition is that early warning to geo-hazards is feasible, national scale forecast is only to call attention, but can't immediately be used to disaster reduction decision-making. And, the future direction is to build a united disaster reduction framework of early warning system including national, provincial and county levels based on weather factors in different scale of area.

  6. Electrical Distribution System (EDS) and Caution and Warning System (CWS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcclung, T.

    1975-01-01

    An astronaut caution and warning system is described which monitors various life support system parameters and detects out-of-range parameter conditions. The warning system generates a warning tone and displays the malfunction condition to the astronaut along with the proper corrective procedures required.

  7. FUEGO — Fire Urgency Estimator in Geosynchronous Orbit — A Proposed Early-Warning Fire Detection System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott Stephens

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Current and planned wildfire detection systems are impressive but lack both sensitivity and rapid response times. A small telescope with modern detectors and significant computing capacity in geosynchronous orbit can detect small (12 m2 fires on the surface of the earth, cover most of the western United States (under conditions of moderately clear skies every few minutes or so, and attain very good signal-to-noise ratio against Poisson fluctuations in a second. Hence, these favorable statistical significances have initiated a study of how such a satellite could operate and reject the large number of expected systematic false alarms from a number of sources. Here we present both studies of the backgrounds in Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES 15 data and studies that probe the sensitivity of a fire detection satellite in geosynchronous orbit. We suggest a number of algorithms that can help reduce false alarms, and show efficacy on a few. Early detection and response would be of true value in the United States and other nations, as wildland fires continue to severely stress resource managers, policy makers, and the public, particularly in the western US. Here, we propose the framework for a geosynchronous satellite with modern imaging detectors, software, and algorithms able to detect heat from early and small fires, and yield minute-scale detection times.

  8. Development of a flood early warning system and communication with end-users: the Vipava/Vipacco case study in the KULTURisk FP7 project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grossi, Giovanna; Caronna, Paolo; Ranzi, Roberto

    2014-05-01

    Within the framework of risk communication, the goal of an early warning system is to support the interaction between technicians and authorities (and subsequently population) as a prevention measure. The methodology proposed in the KULTURisk FP7 project aimed to build a closer collaboration between these actors, in the perspective of promoting pro-active actions to mitigate the effects of flood hazards. The transnational (Slovenia/ Italy) Soča/Isonzo case study focused on this concept of cooperation between stakeholders and hydrological forecasters. The DIMOSHONG_VIP hydrological model was calibrated for the Vipava/Vipacco River (650 km2), a tributary of the Soča/Isonzo River, on the basis of flood events occurred between 1998 and 2012. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) provided the past meteorological forecasts, both deterministic (1 forecast) and probabilistic (51 ensemble members). The resolution of the ECMWF grid is currently about 15 km (Deterministic-DET) and 30 km (Ensemble Prediction System-EPS). A verification was conducted to validate the flood-forecast outputs of the DIMOSHONG_VIP+ECMWF early warning system. Basic descriptive statistics, like event probability, probability of a forecast occurrence and frequency bias were determined. Some performance measures were calculated, such as hit rate (probability of detection) and false alarm rate (probability of false detection). Relative Opening Characteristic (ROC) curves were generated both for deterministic and probabilistic forecasts. These analysis showed a good performance of the early warning system, in respect of the small size of the sample. A particular attention was spent to the design of flood-forecasting output charts, involving and inquiring stakeholders (Alto Adriatico River Basin Authority), hydrology specialists in the field, and common people. Graph types for both forecasted precipitation and discharge were set. Three different risk thresholds were identified

  9. 美俄反恐预警机制的比较及启示%A Comparative Analysis on the U. S. and Russiaˊs Terrorism Early Warning System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    樊明明; 肖欢; 陶祥军

    2014-01-01

    美俄两国针对恐怖主义威胁各自构建了相对完善的预警机制,在反恐预警理念、反恐预警组织领导体系、反恐情报搜集与分析、反恐数据库的建设与共享等方面各有优势与不足。通过美俄反恐预警机制的比较研究,可以为加强和完善我国反恐预警机制建设提供有益的借鉴。%In order to counter the terrorist threats, both the United States and Russia have established their own terrorism early warning systems which have both strengths and weaknesses in terrorism early warning theories, organization leadership, collection and analysis of counter-terrorism intelligence, establishment and sharing of the counter-terrorism intelligence database. After comparing the two coun-tries’ terrorism early warning systems, this paper offers helpful suggestions on ways of strengthening and enhancing Chinaˊs counter-ter-rorism early warning system.

  10. Prototyping an Early-warning System for Rainfall-triggered Landslides on a Regional Scale Using a Physically-based Model and Remote Sensing Datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Z.; Hong, Y.; Kirschbaum, D. B.; Fukuoka, H.; Sassa, K.; Karnawati, D.; Fathani, F.

    2010-12-01

    Recent advancements in the availability of remotely sensed datasets provide an opportunity to advance the predictability of rainfall-triggered landslides at larger spatial scales. An early-warning system based on a physical landslide model and remote sensing information is used to simulate the dynamical response of the soil water content to the spatiotemporal variability of rainfall in complex terrain. The system utilizes geomorphologic datasets including a 30-meter ASTER DEM, a 1-km downscaled FAO soil map, and satellite-based Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation. The applied physical model SLIDE (SLope-Infiltration-Distributed Equilibrium) defines a direct relationship between a factor of safety and the rainfall depth on an infinite slope. This prototype model is applied to a case study in Honduras during Hurricane Mitch in 1998 and a secondary case of typhoon-induced shallow landslides over Java Island, Indonesia. In Honduras, two study areas were selected which cover approximately 1,200 square kilometers and where a high density of shallow landslides occurred. The results were quantitatively evaluated using landslide inventory data compiled by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) following Hurricane Mitch, and show a good agreement between the modeling results and observations. The success rate for accurately estimating slope failure locations reached as high as 78% and 75%, while the error indices were 35% and 49%, respectively for each of the two selected study areas. Advantages and limitations of this application are discussed with respect to future assessment and challenges of performing a slope-stability estimation using coarse data at 1200 square kilometers. In Indonesia, the system has been applied over the whole Java Island. The prototyped early-warning system has been enhanced by integration of a susceptibility mapping and a precipitation forecasting model (i.e. Weather Research Forecast). The performance has been evaluated

  11. Behavior of Early Warnings near the Critical Temperature in the Two-Dimensional Ising Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, Irving O.; Landa, Emmanuel; Angeles, Carlos Calderon; Toledo, Juan C.; Rivera, Ana Leonor; Temis, Joel Mendoza; Frank, Alejandro

    2015-01-01

    Among the properties that are common to complex systems, the presence of critical thresholds in the dynamics of the system is one of the most important. Recently, there has been interest in the universalities that occur in the behavior of systems near critical points. These universal properties make it possible to estimate how far a system is from a critical threshold. Several early-warning signals have been reported in time series representing systems near catastrophic shifts. The proper understanding of these early-warnings may allow the prediction and perhaps control of these dramatic shifts in a wide variety of systems. In this paper we analyze this universal behavior for a system that is a paradigm of phase transitions, the Ising model. We study the behavior of the early-warning signals and the way the temporal correlations of the system increase when the system is near the critical point. PMID:26103513

  12. Behavior of Early Warnings near the Critical Temperature in the Two-Dimensional Ising Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irving O Morales

    Full Text Available Among the properties that are common to complex systems, the presence of critical thresholds in the dynamics of the system is one of the most important. Recently, there has been interest in the universalities that occur in the behavior of systems near critical points. These universal properties make it possible to estimate how far a system is from a critical threshold. Several early-warning signals have been reported in time series representing systems near catastrophic shifts. The proper understanding of these early-warnings may allow the prediction and perhaps control of these dramatic shifts in a wide variety of systems. In this paper we analyze this universal behavior for a system that is a paradigm of phase transitions, the Ising model. We study the behavior of the early-warning signals and the way the temporal correlations of the system increase when the system is near the critical point.

  13. The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eveslage, Ingmar; Fischer, Joachim; Kühnlenz, Frank; Lichtblau, Björn; Milkereit, Claus; Picozzi, Matteo

    2010-05-01

    The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network (SOSEWIN) represents a new approach for Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), consisting in taking advantage of novel wireless communications technologies without the need of a planned, centralised infrastructure. It also sets out to overcome problems of insufficient node density, which typically affects present existing early warning systems, by having the SOSEWIN seismological sensing units being comprised of low-cost components (generally bought "off-the-shelf"), with each unit initially costing 100's of Euros, in contrast to 1,000's to 10,000's for standard seismological stations. The reduced sensitivity of the new sensing units arising from the use of lower-cost components will be compensated by the network's density, which in the future is expected to number 100's to 1000's over areas served currently by the order of 10's of standard stations. The robustness, independence of infrastructure, spontaneous extensibility due to a self-healing/self-organizing character in the case of removing/failing or adding sensors makes SOSEWIN potentially useful for various use cases, e.g. monitoring of building structures (as we could proof during the L'Aquila earthquake) or technical systems and most recently for seismic microzonation. Nevertheless the main purpose SOSEWIN was initially invented for is the earthquake early warning and rapid response, for which reason the ground motion is continuously monitored by conventional accelerometers (3-component) and processed within a station. Based on this, the network itself decides whether an event is detected cooperatively in a two-level hierarchical alarming protocol. Experiences and experiment results with the SOSEWIN-prototype installation in the Ataköy district of Istanbul (Turkey) are presented. The limited size of this installation with currently 20 nodes allows not answering certain questions regarding the useful or possible size of a SOSEWIN installation

  14. Land Surface Modeling Applications for Famine Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNally, A.; Verdin, J. P.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Arsenault, K. R.; Wang, S.; Kumar, S.; Shukla, S.; Funk, C. C.; Pervez, M. S.; Fall, G. M.; Karsten, L. R.

    2015-12-01

    AGU 2015 Fall Meeting Session ID#: 7598 Remote Sensing Applications for Water Resources Management Land Surface Modeling Applications for Famine Early Warning James Verdin, USGS EROS Christa Peters-Lidard, NASA GSFC Amy McNally, NASA GSFC, UMD/ESSIC Kristi Arsenault, NASA GSFC, SAIC Shugong Wang, NASA GSFC, SAIC Sujay Kumar, NASA GSFC, SAIC Shrad Shukla, UCSB Chris Funk, USGS EROS Greg Fall, NOAA Logan Karsten, NOAA, UCAR Famine early warning has traditionally required close monitoring of agro-climatological conditions, putting them in historical context, and projecting them forward to anticipate end-of-season outcomes. In recent years, it has become necessary to factor in the effects of a changing climate as well. There has also been a growing appreciation of the linkage between food security and water availability. In 2009, Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) science partners began developing land surface modeling (LSM) applications to address these needs. With support from the NASA Applied Sciences Program, an instance of the Land Information System (LIS) was developed to specifically support FEWS NET. A simple crop water balance model (GeoWRSI) traditionally used by FEWS NET took its place alongside the Noah land surface model and the latest version of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, and LIS data readers were developed for FEWS NET precipitation forcings (NOAA's RFE and USGS/UCSB's CHIRPS). The resulting system was successfully used to monitor and project soil moisture conditions in the Horn of Africa, foretelling poor crop outcomes in the OND 2013 and MAM 2014 seasons. In parallel, NOAA created another instance of LIS to monitor snow water resources in Afghanistan, which are an early indicator of water availability for irrigation and crop production. These successes have been followed by investment in LSM implementations to track and project water availability in Sub-Saharan Africa and Yemen, work that is now underway. Adoption of

  15. Feasibility study of earthquake early warning (EEW) in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thelen, Weston A.; Hotovec-Ellis, Alicia J.; Bodin, Paul

    2016-09-30

    The effects of earthquake shaking on the population and infrastructure across the State of Hawaii could be catastrophic, and the high seismic hazard in the region emphasizes the likelihood of such an event. Earthquake early warning (EEW) has the potential to give several seconds of warning before strong shaking starts, and thus reduce loss of life and damage to property. The two approaches to EEW are (1) a network approach (such as ShakeAlert or ElarmS) where the regional seismic network is used to detect the earthquake and distribute the alarm and (2) a local approach where a critical facility has a single seismometer (or small array) and a warning system on the premises.The network approach, also referred to here as ShakeAlert or ElarmS, uses the closest stations within a regional seismic network to detect and characterize an earthquake. Most parameters used for a network approach require observations on multiple stations (typically 3 or 4), which slows down the alarm time slightly, but the alarms are generally more reliable than with single-station EEW approaches. The network approach also benefits from having stations closer to the source of any potentially damaging earthquake, so that alarms can be sent ahead to anyone who subscribes to receive the notification. Thus, a fully implemented ShakeAlert system can provide seconds of warning for both critical facilities and general populations ahead of damaging earthquake shaking.The cost to implement and maintain a fully operational ShakeAlert system is high compared to a local approach or single-station solution, but the benefits of a ShakeAlert system would be felt statewide—the warning times for strong shaking are potentially longer for most sources at most locations.The local approach, referred to herein as “single station,” uses measurements from a single seismometer to assess whether strong earthquake shaking can be expected. Because of the reliance on a single station, false alarms are more common than

  16. Multi-parameter algorithm for Earthquake Early Warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rakhi Bhardwaj

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Earthquake Early Warning (EEW system is a real-time earthquake damage mitigation system. It detects, analyzes and transmits information of the impending event at the potential user sites. In the present study, an attempt has been made to develop a multi-parameter-based EEW algorithm for accurate and reliable issuance of EEW. In the present study, not only the individual parameters such as maximum predominant period (, average period (τc, peak displacement (Pd, cumulative absolute velocity and root sum of squares cumulative velocity have been used to develop an algorithm but also various combinations have been attempted to issue alarm. The criterion for issuing warning is based on the alarm status of combinations of parameters at nearest four stations within selected epicentral distance of the event. It has been concluded that three parameter preference-based approach provides most efficient results at a time window of 4 s. The data-set for estimating various parameters required for multi-parameter algorithm has been taken from K-NET seismic array (Japan. The algorithm has been validated on the data taken from different regions. Based on the validation carried out using Indian and PEER-NGA database, the results revealed better performance of multi-parametric EEW algorithm.

  17. Landslide Geohazard Monitoring, Early Warning and Stabilization Control Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bednarczyk Zbigniew

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper is a presentation of landslide monitoring, early warning and remediation methods recommended for the Polish Carpathians. Instrumentation included standard and automatic on-line measurements with the real-time transfer of data to an Internet web server. The research was funded through EU Innovative Economy Programme and also by the SOPO Landslide Counteraction Project. The landslides investigated were characterized by relatively low rates of the displacements. These ranged from a few millimetres to several centimetres per year. Colluviums of clayey flysch deposits were of a soil-rock type with a very high plasticity and moisture content. The instrumentation consisted of 23 standard inclinometers set to depths of 5-21 m. The starting point of monitoring measurements was in January 2006. These were performed every 1-2 months over the period of 8 years. The measurements taken detected displacements from several millimetres to 40 cm set at a depth of 1-17 m. The modern, on-line monitoring and early warning system was installed in May 2010. The system is the first of its kind in Poland and only one of several such real-time systems in the world. The installation was working with the Local Road Authority in Gorlice. It contained three automatic field stations for investigation of landslide parameters to depths of 12-16 m and weather station. In-place tilt transducers and innovative 3D continuous inclinometer systems with sensors located every 0.5 m were used. It has the possibility of measuring a much greater range of movements compared to standard systems. The conventional and real-time data obtained provided a better recognition of the triggering parameters and the control of geohazard stabilizations. The monitoring methods chosen supplemented by numerical modelling could lead to more reliable forecasting of such landslides and could thus provide better control and landslide remediation possibilities also to stabilization works which

  18. Landslide Geohazard Monitoring, Early Warning and Stabilization Control Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bednarczyk, Zbigniew

    2014-03-01

    This paper is a presentation of landslide monitoring, early warning and remediation methods recommended for the Polish Carpathians. Instrumentation included standard and automatic on-line measurements with the real-time transfer of data to an Internet web server. The research was funded through EU Innovative Economy Programme and also by the SOPO Landslide Counteraction Project. The landslides investigated were characterized by relatively low rates of the displacements. These ranged from a few millimetres to several centimetres per year. Colluviums of clayey flysch deposits were of a soil-rock type with a very high plasticity and moisture content. The instrumentation consisted of 23 standard inclinometers set to depths of 5-21 m. The starting point of monitoring measurements was in January 2006. These were performed every 1-2 months over the period of 8 years. The measurements taken detected displacements from several millimetres to 40 cm set at a depth of 1-17 m. The modern, on-line monitoring and early warning system was installed in May 2010. The system is the first of its kind in Poland and only one of several such real-time systems in the world. The installation was working with the Local Road Authority in Gorlice. It contained three automatic field stations for investigation of landslide parameters to depths of 12-16 m and weather station. In-place tilt transducers and innovative 3D continuous inclinometer systems with sensors located every 0.5 m were used. It has the possibility of measuring a much greater range of movements compared to standard systems. The conventional and real-time data obtained provided a better recognition of the triggering parameters and the control of geohazard stabilizations. The monitoring methods chosen supplemented by numerical modelling could lead to more reliable forecasting of such landslides and could thus provide better control and landslide remediation possibilities also to stabilization works which prevent landslides.

  19. Progress in the development of a S RETGEM-based detector for an early forest fire warning system

    CERN Document Server

    Charpak, Georges; Breuil, P; Martinengo, P; Nappi, E; Peskov, V

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we present a prototype of a Strip Resistive Thick GEM photosensitive gaseous detector filled with Ne and ethylferrocene vapours at a total pressure of 1 atm for an early forest fire detection system. Tests show that it is one hundred times more sensitive than the best commercial ultraviolet flame detectors and therefore, it is able to reliably detect a flame of 1.5x1.5x1.5 m3 at a distance of about 1km. An additional and unique feature of this detector is its imaging capability, which in combination with other techniques, may significantly reduce false fire alarms when operating in an automatic mode. Preliminary results conducted with air filled photosensitive gaseous detectors are also presented. The approach main advantages include both the simplicity of manufacturing and affordability of construction materials such as plastics and glues specifically reducing detector production cost. The sensitivity of these air filled detectors at certain conditions may be as high as those filled with Ne and...

  20. 城市埋地钢质燃气管道预警系统研究%Study on the Early Warning System of Urban Buried Steel Gas Pipeline

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    袁金彪; 乔武康

    2012-01-01

    Pipeline risk disaster early warning is one of the important non-engineering measures in the risk defense of pipeline accidents in urban buried gas pipe network.Pipeline risk early warning system is actually to analyze the pipeline risk status and the development trend of pipeline dangerous risk factors,and to obtain the grade of pipeline safety warning.As a result,the corresponding action notice may be delivered to the affected areas.Therefore,enterprises and community can make timely,effective,appropriate responses.In the paper,the goal of the early warning system of urban buried steel gas pipeline was presented,and the four phases of the system were analyzed.The early warning system of urban buried steel gas pipeline was set up and the corresponding process was proposed.%管道风险灾害预警是城市燃气埋地管网防御管道事故风险中重要的非工程措施之一。管道风险预警系统实际上是对管道危险状态和管道危险危害因素的发展趋势进行客观分析,得出管道安全预警等级,并对可能受影响的区域发出相应的行动通告,以便企业、社会做出及时、有效、恰当的响应。文章提出城市埋地钢质燃气管道预警系统目标,分析系统的四个阶段,研发了城市埋地钢质燃气管道预警系统的构建方法,并阐述了相应的流程。

  1. [Ecological security early-warning in Zhoushan Islands based on variable weight model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Bin; Zhong, Lin-sheng; Chen, Tian; Zhou, Rui

    2015-06-01

    Ecological security early warning, as an important content of ecological security research, is of indicating significance in maintaining regional ecological security. Based on driving force, pressure, state, impact and response (D-P-S-I-R) framework model, this paper took Zhoushan Islands in Zhejiang Province as an example to construct the ecological security early warning index system, test degrees of ecological security early warning of Zhoushan Islands from 2000 to 2012 by using the method of variable weight model, and forecast ecological security state of 2013-2018 by Markov prediction method. The results showed that the variable weight model could meet the study needs of ecological security early warning of Zhoushan Islands. There was a fluctuant rising ecological security early warning index from 0.286 to 0.484 in Zhoushan Islands between year 2000 and 2012, in which the security grade turned from "serious alert" into " medium alert" and the indicator light turned from "orange" to "yellow". The degree of ecological security warning was "medium alert" with the light of "yellow" for Zhoushan Islands from 2013 to 2018. These findings could provide a reference for ecological security maintenance of Zhoushan Islands.

  2. The analysis results of EEWS(Earthquake Early Warning System) about Iksan(Ml4.3) and Ulsan(Ml5.0) earthquakes in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, J. H.; Chi, H. C.; Lim, I. S.; Seong, Y. J.; Pak, J.

    2016-12-01

    EEW(Earthquake Early Warning) service to the public has been officially operated by KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) from 2015 in Korea. For the KMA's official EEW service, KIGAM has adopted ElarmS from UC Berkeley BSL and modified local magnitude relation, 1-D travel time curves and association procedures with real time waveforms from about 160 seismic stations of KMA and KIGAM. We have checked the performance of EEWS(Earthquake Early Warning System) reviewing two moderate size earthquakes: one is Iksan Eq.(Ml4.3) inside of networks and the other is Ulsan Eq.(Ml5.0) happened at the southern east sea of Korea outside of networks. The first trigger time at NPR station of the Iksan Eq. took 2.3 sec and BUY and JEO2 stations were associated to produce the first event version in 10.07 sec from the origin time respectively. Because the epicentral distance of JEO2 station is about 30 km and the estimated travel time is 6.2 sec, the delay time including transmission and processing is estimated as 3.87 sec with assumption that P wave velocity is 5 km/sec and the focal depth is 8 km. The first magnitude was M4.9 which was a little bigger than Ml4.3 by KIGAM. After adding 3 more triggers of stations (CHO, KMSA, PORA), the estimated magnitude became to M4.6 and the final was settled down to M4.3 with 10 stations. In the case of Ulsan the first trigger time took 11.04 sec and the first alert time with 3 stations in 14.8 sec from the origin time (OT) respectively. The first magnitude was M5.2, however, the difference between the first EEW epicenter and the manual final result was about 63 km due to the poor azimuth coverage outside of seismic network. After 16.2 sec from OT the fourth station YSB was used to update the location near to the manual results within 6 km with magnitude 5.0 and location and magnitude were stable with more stations. Ulsan Eq. was the first case announced to the public by EEWS and the process and result were successful, however, we have to

  3. Three-Month Real-Time Dengue Forecast Models: An Early Warning System for Outbreak Alerts and Policy Decision Support in Singapore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Yuan; Liu, Xu; Kok, Suet-Yheng; Rajarethinam, Jayanthi; Liang, Shaohong; Yap, Grace; Chong, Chee-Seng; Lee, Kim-Sung; Tan, Sharon S.Y.; Chin, Christopher Kuan Yew; Lo, Andrew; Kong, Waiming; Ng, Lee Ching; Cook, Alex R.

    2015-01-01

    Background: With its tropical rainforest climate, rapid urbanization, and changing demography and ecology, Singapore experiences endemic dengue; the last large outbreak in 2013 culminated in 22,170 cases. In the absence of a vaccine on the market, vector control is the key approach for prevention. Objectives: We sought to forecast the evolution of dengue epidemics in Singapore to provide early warning of outbreaks and to facilitate the public health response to moderate an impending outbreak. Methods: We developed a set of statistical models using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) methods to forecast the weekly incidence of dengue notifications over a 3-month time horizon. This forecasting tool used a variety of data streams and was updated weekly, including recent case data, meteorological data, vector surveillance data, and population-based national statistics. The forecasting methodology was compared with alternative approaches that have been proposed to model dengue case data (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average and step-down linear regression) by fielding them on the 2013 dengue epidemic, the largest on record in Singapore. Results: Operationally useful forecasts were obtained at a 3-month lag using the LASSO-derived models. Based on the mean average percentage error, the LASSO approach provided more accurate forecasts than the other methods we assessed. We demonstrate its utility in Singapore’s dengue control program by providing a forecast of the 2013 outbreak for advance preparation of outbreak response. Conclusions: Statistical models built using machine learning methods such as LASSO have the potential to markedly improve forecasting techniques for recurrent infectious disease outbreaks such as dengue. Citation: Shi Y, Liu X, Kok SY, Rajarethinam J, Liang S, Yap G, Chong CS, Lee KS, Tan SS, Chin CK, Lo A, Kong W, Ng LC, Cook AR. 2016. Three-month real-time dengue forecast models: an early warning system for outbreak

  4. Early warning of orographically induced floods and landslides in Western Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leine, Ann-Live; Wang, Thea; Boje, Søren

    2017-04-01

    In Western Norway, landslides and debris flows are commonly initiated by short-term orographic rainfall or intensity peaks during a prolonged rainfall event. In recent years, the flood warning service in Norway has evolved from being solely a flood forecasting service to also integrating landslides into its early warning systems. As both floods and landslides are closely related to the same hydrometeorological processes, particularly in small catchments, there is a natural synergy between monitoring flood and landslide risk. The Norwegian Flood and Landslide Hazard Forecasting and Warning Service issues regional landslide hazard warnings based on hydrological models, threshold values, observations and weather forecasts. Intense rainfall events and/or orographic precipitation that, under certain topographic conditions, significantly increase the risk of debris avalanches and debris floods are lately receiving more research focus from the Norwegian warning service. Orographic precipitation is a common feature in W-Norway, when moist and relatively mild air arrives from the Atlantic. Steep mountain slopes covered by glacial till makes the region prone to landslides, as well as flooding. The operational early warning system in Norway requires constant improvement, especially with the enhanced number of intense rainfall events that occur in a warming climate. Here, we examine different cases of intense rainfall events which have lead to landslides and debris flows, as well as increased runoff in fast responding small catchments. The main objective is to increase the understanding of the hydrometeorological conditions related to these events, in order to make priorities for the future development of the warning service.

  5. MyShake: A smartphone seismic network for earthquake early warning and beyond

    OpenAIRE

    Kong, Qingkai; Allen, Richard M.; Schreier, Louis; Kwon, Young-Woo

    2016-01-01

    Large magnitude earthquakes in urban environments continue to kill and injure tens to hundreds of thousands of people, inflicting lasting societal and economic disasters. Earthquake early warning (EEW) provides seconds to minutes of warning, allowing people to move to safe zones and automated slowdown and shutdown of transit and other machinery. The handful of EEW systems operating around the world use traditional seismic and geodetic networks that exist only in a few nations. Smartphones are...

  6. A new multi-sensor approach to simulation assisted tsunami early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrens, J.; Androsov, A.; Babeyko, A. Y.; Harig, S.; Klaschka, F.; Mentrup, L.

    2010-06-01

    A new tsunami forecasting method for near-field tsunami warning is presented. This method is applied in the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System, as part of the Indonesian Tsunami Warning Center in Jakarta, Indonesia. The method employs a rigorous approach to minimize uncertainty in the assessment of tsunami hazard in the near-field. Multiple independent sensors are evaluated simultaneously in order to achieve an accurate estimation of coastal arrival times and wave heights within very short time after a submarine earthquake event. The method is validated employing a synthetic (simulated) tsunami event, and in hindcasting the minor tsunami following the Padang 30 September 2009 earthquake.

  7. Web-based push service applications in risk early warning system%基于web的推送技术在风险预警系统中的应用

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    罗广; 阳许军

    2016-01-01

    In order to solve the risk early warning system for the request/response mode of traditional web system caused by the information delay problem, this paper proposes a risk warning system based on active web server push technology, and expounds the key technology of the scheme and implementation. The risk early warning scheme is based on the HTTP long link Comet technology, with the ability of risking early warning without refreshing the web page. Once the system detected the risk, can timely warning, so the system satisfies the design need, this plan is feasible.%为解决风险预警系统因传统web系统请求/响应模式而造成信息延迟的问题,本文提出了一种基于web服务器主动推送技术的风险预警系统的的方案,并阐述了此方案的关键技术以及具体实现。本风险预警方案通过使用基于HTTP长链接的Comet技术,具备了在web页面不重新刷新的情况下预警风险风险的能力。该系统一旦检测到风险,能够及时预警,因此,该系统满足设计需求,该方案是可行的。

  8. Early-warning signals of topological collapse in interbank networks

    CERN Document Server

    Squartini, Tiziano; Garlaschelli, Diego

    2013-01-01

    The financial crisis marked a paradigm shift, from traditional studies of individual risk to recent research on the "systemic risk" generated by whole networks of institutions. However, the reverse effects of realized defaults on network topology are poorly understood. Here we analyze the Dutch interbank network over the period 1998-2008, ending with the global crisis. We find that many topological properties, after controlling for overall density effects, display an abrupt change in 2008, thus providing a clear but unpredictable signature of the crisis. By contrast, if the intrinsic heterogeneity of banks is controlled for, the same properties undergo a slow and continuous transition, gradually connecting the crisis period to a much earlier stationary phase. This early-warning signal begins in 2005, and is preceded by an even earlier period of "risk autocatalysis" characterized by anomalous debt loops. These remarkable precursors are undetectable if the network is reconstructed from partial bank-specific inf...

  9. Early warning score predicts acute mortality in stroke patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liljehult, J; Christensen, T

    2016-01-01

    was to investigate whether the aggregate weighted track and trigger system early warning score (EWS) can be used as a simple observational tool to identify patients at risk and predict mortality in a population of patients with acute stroke. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients admitted with acute stroke...... at the Copenhagen University Hospital, Nordsjaellands Hospital, Denmark, from May to September 2012 were enrolled in a retrospective cohort study (n = 274). Vital signs were measured immediately after admission and consistently during the hospitalization period. Based on the vital signs, a single composite EWS...... the EWS at admission (AUROC 0.856; 95% CI 0.760-0.951; P-value score is a simple and valid...

  10. Acquiring Comprehensive Observations using an Integrated Sensorweb for Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habib, Shahid; Ambrose, Steve

    2006-01-01

    As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensorweb for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes. In reality, there is little analysis'available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensorweb concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat . orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensorweb should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensorweb can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the lass of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone's needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting

  11. CoopEUS EMSO-OOI Case Study: Tsunami Modelling and Early Warning Systems for Near Source Areas (Mediterranean, Juan de Fuca).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Best, M.; Beranzoli, L.; Chierici, F.; Delaney, J. R.; Embriaco, D.; Galbraith, N.; Huber, R.; Orcutt, J. A.; Weller, R. A.

    2014-12-01

    There is a need for tsunami modeling and early warning systems for near-source areas. For example this is a common public safety threat in the Mediterranean and Juan de Fuca/NE Pacific Coast of N.A.; Regions covered by the EMSO and OOI ocean observatories respectively. Through the CoopEUS EU-US cooperation project, a number of environmental research infrastructures have come together to coordinate efforts on environmental challenges; this tsunami case study tackles one such challenge. There is a mutual need of tsunami event field data and modeling to deepen our experience in testing methodology and developing real-time data processing. Tsunami field data are already available for past events, part of this use case compares these for compatibility, gap analysis, and model groundtruthing. It also reviews sensors needed and harmonizes instrument settings. Sensor metadata and registries are compared, harmonized, and aligned. Data policies and access are also compared and assessed for gap analysis. Modelling algorithms are compared and tested against archived and real-time data. This case study will then be extended to other related tsunami data and model sources globally with similar geographic and seismic scenarios (e.g. DONET, ONC).

  12. Comparison of Statistical Downscaling Methods for Seasonal Precipitation Prediction: An Application Toward a Fire and Haze Early Warning System for Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, J.; Lee, H.; Lee, E.; Field, R. D.; Hameed, S. N.; Foo, K. K.; Albar, I.; Sopaheluwakan, A.

    2014-12-01

    Smoke haze from forest fires is among Southeast Asia's most serious environmental problems and there is a clear need for a long-lead fire and haze early warning system (EWS) for the regions. The seasonal forecast supplied by the APEC Climate Center (APCC) is one of available information can be used to predict drought conditions triggering forest fires in the region. The objective of this study is to assess the skill of the current and downscaled products of APCC's seasonal forecast of 6-month lead-time for predicting ASO precipitation over the fire-prone regions. First, seasonal forecast skill by six individual models (MSC_CANCM3, MSC_CANCM4, NASA, NCEP, PNU, POAMA) and simple composite model (SCM) ensemble was assessed by considering available each ensemble members. Second, three different statistical downscaling methods including simple bias-correction (SBC), moving window regression (MWReg), and climate index regression (CIReg) were applied and the forecast sill were compared. Both current and downscaled seasonal forecast showed higher predictability over Sumatra regions compared to the Kalimantan regions. Statistical downscaling of forecasts showed the skill improvement over the Kalimantan region where current APCC's forecast shows low predictability. Study also shows that temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) between observed and forecasted ASO precipitation increases as lead-time decrease.

  13. Earthquake Early Warning: A Prospective User's Perspective (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishenko, S. P.; Savage, W. U.; Johnson, T.

    2009-12-01

    With more than 25 million people at risk from high hazard faults in California alone, Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) presents a promising public safety and emergency response tool. EEW represents the real-time end of an earthquake information spectrum which also includes near real-time notifications of earthquake location, magnitude, and shaking levels; as well as geographic information system (GIS)-based products for compiling and visually displaying processed earthquake data such as ShakeMap and ShakeCast. Improvements to and increased multi-national implementation of EEW have stimulated interest in how such information products could be used in the future. Lifeline organizations, consisting of utilities and transportation systems, can use both onsite and regional EEW information as part of their risk management and public safety programs. Regional EEW information can provide improved situational awareness to system operators before automatic system protection devices activate, and allow trained personnel to take precautionary measures. On-site EEW is used for earthquake-actuated automatic gas shutoff valves, triggered garage door openers at fire stations, system controls, etc. While there is no public policy framework for preemptive, precautionary electricity or gas service shutdowns by utilities in the United States, gas shut-off devices are being required at the building owner level by some local governments. In the transportation sector, high-speed rail systems have already demonstrated the ‘proof of concept’ for EEW in several countries, and more EEW systems are being installed. Recently the Bay Area Rapid Transit District (BART) began collaborating with the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) and others to assess the potential benefits of EEW technology to mass transit operations and emergency response in the San Francisco Bay region. A key issue in this assessment is that significant earthquakes are likely to occur close to or within the BART

  14. Early Warning of El Nino Impacts on Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowland, J.; Verdin, J. P.; Hillbruner, C.; Budde, M. E.

    2016-12-01

    Before and during the El Niño of 2015-2016, regular and frequent application of climate monitoring and seasonal forecasts enabled early warning of food insecurity in Africa, Central America, and the Caribbean. As it happened, drought associated with the quasi-El Niño of 2014 had already adversely impacted harvests in Central America, Haiti, and Southern Africa, so the effects of the El Niño of 2015-2016 were especially hard-hitting and particularly devastating to crop conditions and food security. In the case of Ethiopia, 2014 conditions were normal but there were record rainfall deficits in 2015, with consequent crop failure, inadequate forage, and sharply curtailed water availability. Combining such agro-climatological information with knowledge of household economies, livelihood systems, markets & trade, and health & nutrition, FEWS NET constructed scenarios of food insecurity eight months into the future, with monthly updates. These scenarios informed assistance programming by USAID and partners. Overall, FEWS NET estimates that at least 18 million people will be severely food insecure during 2015/16 as a direct result of the impact of El Nino on rainfall. However, in Ethiopia, the contrast with the 1982-1983 El Niño is dramatic; though the two events were climatically similar, the human impacts of the 2015-2016 El Niño are much less, thanks not only to well-functioning early warning systems and large scale emergency response, but also improved social safety nets and lack of ongoing armed conflict. In southern Africa, El Nino resulted in extensive failed crops, with some areas of South Africa and Zimbabwe having insufficient rain to plant crops. Remote sensing products provided relevant information to depict the severity of rainfall and vegetation deficits. Likewise, in Central America and the Caribbean (Hispaniola), rainfall deficits were portrayed in the perspective of 30+ years of data.

  15. 林业生物灾害预警的内涵%The Connotation of Early Warning System for Forest Pest Hazard

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    景天忠; 张海侠; 董瀛谦; 王志英

    2012-01-01

    林业生物灾害预警是我国林业有害生物预防体系的主要内容,但一直以来对林业生物灾害这一概念没有一个统一的定义,处于“各自表述”的状态.在参考国内外林业生物灾害预警研究的基础上,对一些相关概念做了厘清,提出了一个林业生物灾害预警系统的框架.该系统由4部分构成:分析潜在威胁、检定真实威胁、警情发布和响应威胁.通过有害生物风险分析和发生预测来判断潜在的威胁;通过威胁勘察、监测和检疫措施来检定真实的威胁;然后评估威胁大小.提出了一个度量威胁大小的指标——发生指数,它既考虑了有害生物的种群密度(或病情指数),又考虑了发生面积.发生指数可在当年有害生物发生结束后根据实际发生情况计算,但在预警时必须根据预警指标(立地指数、林分指数、气象指数等)来推算.根据推算的发生指数,将警情分级,向经营者和公众发布警报.同时,相关部门根据相应的预案进行威胁响应.对预案执行情况应进行评估,必要时进行预案修订.%Early warning of forest pest hazard plays an important role in forest pest control in China. However, there is no wide acceptable definition for this concept yet. Based on both domestic and overseas information, some relevant vague concepts are cleared, and a component module of early warning system ( EWS) for forest pest hazard is proposed. The EWS comprises four parts: potential threats analysis, actual threats verification, alerts releasing and respond. Potential threats can be identified by either pest risk analysis (PRA) or outbreak prediction, or by the both, while actual threats can be detected by threats survey, monitoring or quarantine. Then, assessment of the threats follows. An index, outbreak index (01), is presented to measure the hazard. 01 is an index combining population density (or disease index) and inlested area, which can be calculated

  16. 济宁市山洪灾害防治预警系统建设及预防措施%Flash Flood Control Early Warning System Construction and Preventive Measures of Jining City

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    董宁; 王晓默

    2012-01-01

    The early warning system,system architecture,module division for flash flood control were studied,and the idea of early warning platform for flash flood control was introduced.The application of the early warning system for decision-making departments to provide timely information on the disaster,help decision-making departments to make a scientific decision,reduce the various losses caused by the disaster.At the same time,strengthen the construction of hydrology warning system,improve information dissemination program,efforts to improve the published quality and increase propagandist strength,popularize the common sense of disaster prevention were put forward,which had positive significance for flash flood disaster warning and prevention of Jining City.%对山洪灾害防治预警系统进行了研究,提出了系统的体系结构和模块划分,系统介绍了山洪灾害防治预警平台的构想。该系统的应用能为各决策部门提供及时的灾情信息,帮助决策部门做出科学决策,减少灾害造成的各种损失。同时,提出了要加强雨水情信息预警系统的建设、完善信息发布程序,努力提高发布质量和加大宣传力度,普及防灾常识等防御措施,对济宁市山洪灾害预警和防治具有积极意义。

  17. The Method of Oilfield Development Risk Forecasting and Early Warning Using Revised Bayesian Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yihua Zhong

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Oilfield development aiming at crude oil production is an extremely complex process, which involves many uncertain risk factors affecting oil output. Thus, risk prediction and early warning about oilfield development may insure operating and managing oilfields efficiently to meet the oil production plan of the country and sustainable development of oilfields. However, scholars and practitioners in the all world are seldom concerned with the risk problem of oilfield block development. The early warning index system of blocks development which includes the monitoring index and planning index was refined and formulated on the basis of researching and analyzing the theory of risk forecasting and early warning as well as the oilfield development. Based on the indexes of warning situation predicted by neural network, the method dividing the interval of warning degrees was presented by “3σ” rule; and a new method about forecasting and early warning of risk was proposed by introducing neural network to Bayesian networks. Case study shows that the results obtained in this paper are right and helpful to the management of oilfield development risk.

  18. Procurement and Supply Management System for MDR-TB in Nigeria: Are the Early Warning Targets for Drug Stock Outs and Over Stock of Drugs Being Achieved?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jatau, Bolajoko; Avong, Yohanna; Ogundahunsi, Olumide; Shah, Safieh; Tayler Smith, Katherine; Van den Bergh, Rafael; Zachariah, Rony; van Griensven, Johan; Ekong, Ernest; Dakum, Patrick

    2015-01-01

    The World Health Organisation (WHO) introduced the twelve early warning indicators for monitoring and evaluating drug Procurement and Supply management (PSM) systems, intended to prevent drug stock-outs and overstocking. Nigeria--one of the high Multi Drug Resistant Tuberculosis (MDR-TB) burden countries, scaled-up treatment in 2012 with the concurrent implementation of a PSM system. We evaluated how well this system functioned using the WHO indicators, including all seven MDR-TB treatment centres in the country that were functional throughout 2013. The quantity of MDR-TB drugs ordered for 2013 matched the annual forecast and all central orders placed during the year were delivered in full and on time. Drug consumption was 81%-106% of the quantity allocated for routine consumption. Timely submission of complete inventory reports ranged from 86-100%, late submissions being 5-15 days late. Forty to 71% of treatment centres placed a drug order when stock was below the minimum level of three months. The proportion of drug orders received at the treatment centres in full and on time ranged from 29-80%, late orders being 1-19 days late. The PSM was found to be performing well in terms of forecasting and procurement of MDR-TB drugs, but there were shortcomings in drug distribution, reporting at treatment centre level and in drug order placements. Despite these gaps, there were no stock outs. These findings indicate that where it matters most, namely ensuring that no drug stock outs affect patient management, the PSM system is effective. Addressing the observed shortcomings will help to strengthen the existing PSM system in anticipation of a growing MDR-TB case burden in the country.

  19. Earth Observations for Early Detection of Agricultural Drought in Countries at Risk: Contributions of the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdin, J. P.; Rowland, J.; Senay, G. B.; Funk, C. C.; Budde, M. E.; Husak, G. J.; Jayanthi, H.

    2013-12-01

    method for pastoralist areas has been successfully demonstrated. It involves mapping small surface water bodies with ASTER and Landsat imagery, delineating their catchment areas with SRTM elevation data, and maintaining a continuous water balance calculation with satellite rainfall and weather model evaporation estimates to track relative fullness of these ephemeral water bodies. Piloted with NASA funds in partnership with Texas A&M University, the technique is now being implemented across the Sahel. (5) To move beyond monitoring and early warning to disaster risk management, loss exceedence probability functions are being derived for crop production shortfalls in FEWS NET countries. Drought hazard indicators, based on both ETa and crop water balance modeling forced by CHIRPS, have been used to develop regional crop drought risk models. In the case of ETa, the drought risk model provides the basis for index insurance in experiments being conducted in Senegal. A program of training events with GEO partners ensures that the data sets and applications are made available to scientists in FEWS NET countries.

  20. Safety Monitoring and Early Warning System for Buried Pipeline Crossing Fault%跨断层埋地管道安全监测预警系统

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    侯王刚; 张文涛; 王蕴玉; 叶富艳

    2015-01-01

    Long-distance buried pipeline crossing fault is prone to crack, dislocate and buckle, so the implementation of pipeline security monitoring and early warning can not only offer the earthquake quick report, but also provide basis for the safe operation of the pipeline condition assessment and risk tube section of the emergency rescue. Through monitoring of the force of fault hazard-affected body,pipeline of hazard-affected body and soil mass on pipeline,thus forming the function of ground acceler-ation early warning, fault displacement early warning, pipeline strain early warning, pipeline leakage warning, location of pipe-line inspection, real time display of deformation and stress of pipe, the dynamic change of the relative displacement and the in-teraction force of the pipe soil. It can effectively reduce the damage caused by the sudden disasters and the occurrence of second-ary damage.%穿越断裂带长输埋地管道易发生拉裂、错断及屈曲破坏,实施管道安全监测预警,可以进行震后速报,为管道安全运行状态评估、危险管段应急抢险提供依据. 利用传感器对断层致灾体、管道承灾体以及土体对管道作用力进行监测,形成地震动加速度预警、断层位移预警、管道应变预警、管道泄漏预警、管道检修定位、管道变形及受力状况显示,管土相对位移和相互作用力动态变化功能的监测预警系统,有效减少突发性灾害导致的管道受损破坏及次生危害的发生.

  1. Feasibility study of earthquake early warning (EEW) in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thelen, Weston A.; Hotovec-Ellis, Alicia J.; Bodin, Paul

    2016-09-30

    The effects of earthquake shaking on the population and infrastructure across the State of Hawaii could be catastrophic, and the high seismic hazard in the region emphasizes the likelihood of such an event. Earthquake early warning (EEW) has the potential to give several seconds of warning before strong shaking starts, and thus reduce loss of life and damage to property. The two approaches to EEW are (1) a network approach (such as ShakeAlert or ElarmS) where the regional seismic network is used to detect the earthquake and distribute the alarm and (2) a local approach where a critical facility has a single seismometer (or small array) and a warning system on the premises.The network approach, also referred to here as ShakeAlert or ElarmS, uses the closest stations within a regional seismic network to detect and characterize an earthquake. Most parameters used for a network approach require observations on multiple stations (typically 3 or 4), which slows down the alarm time slightly, but the alarms are generally more reliable than with single-station EEW approaches. The network approach also benefits from having stations closer to the source of any potentially damaging earthquake, so that alarms can be sent ahead to anyone who subscribes to receive the notification. Thus, a fully implemented ShakeAlert system can provide seconds of warning for both critical facilities and general populations ahead of damaging earthquake shaking.The cost to implement and maintain a fully operational ShakeAlert system is high compared to a local approach or single-station solution, but the benefits of a ShakeAlert system would be felt statewide—the warning times for strong shaking are potentially longer for most sources at most locations.The local approach, referred to herein as “single station,” uses measurements from a single seismometer to assess whether strong earthquake shaking can be expected. Because of the reliance on a single station, false alarms are more common than

  2. Can we develop an effective early warning system for volcanic eruptions using `off the shelf' webcams and low-light cameras?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrild, M.; Webley, P. W.; Dehn, J.

    2016-12-01

    An effective early warning system to detect volcanic activity is an invaluable tool, but often very expensive. Detecting and monitoring precursory events, thermal signatures, and ongoing eruptions in near real-time is essential, but conventional methods are often logistically challenging, expensive, and difficult to maintain. Our investigation explores the use of `off the shelf' webcams and low-light cameras, operating in the visible to near-infrared portions of the electromagnetic spectrum, to detect and monitor volcanic incandescent activity. Large databases of webcam imagery already exist at institutions around the world, but are often extremely underutilised and we aim to change this. We focus on the early detection of thermal signatures at volcanoes, using automated scripts to analyse individual images for changes in pixel brightness, allowing us to detect relative changes in thermally incandescent activity. Primarily, our work focuses on freely available streams of webcam images from around the world, which we can download and analyse in near real-time. When changes in activity are detected, an alert is sent to the users informing them of the changes in activity and a need for further investigation. Although relatively rudimentary, this technique provides constant monitoring for volcanoes in remote locations and developing nations, where it is not financially viable to deploy expensive equipment. We also purchased several of our own cameras, which were extensively tested in controlled laboratory settings with a black body source to determine their individual spectral response. Our aim is to deploy these cameras at active volcanoes knowing exactly how they will respond to varying levels of incandescence. They are ideal for field deployments as they are cheap (0-1,000), consume little power, are easily replaced, and can provide telemetered near real-time data. Data from Shiveluch volcano, Russia and our spectral response lab experiments are presented here.

  3. Rapid communication. New incursions of West Nile virus lineage 2 in Italy in 2013: the value of the entomological surveillance as early warning system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mattia Calzolari

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available West Nile virus (WNV is one of the most serious public health threats that Europe and the Mediterranean countries are currently facing. In Italy, WNV emerged in 1998 and has been circulating since 2008. To tackle its continuous incursions, Italian national and regional institutions set up a surveillance program, which includes the serological screening of sentinel horses, sentinel-chickens and backyard poultry flocks and the surveillance on all equine neurological cases, resident captured and wild dead birds, and vectors. This communication aims to assess the importance of the entomological surveillance program as an early warning system for WNV circulation. In the province of Modena, the circulation of WNV lineage 2 strains was first detected in pools of Culex pipiens on July the 3rd, 42 days prior to the onset of the first 2013 human WNV neuroinvasive case reported in the same province. Similarly in Veneto, WNV was first detected on July 3rd in a pool of Cx. pipiens collected in the province of Venezia. The first human neuroinvasive case in this region occurred in the Rovigo province on July the 24th, seven days after the detection of WNV lineage 2 in a mosquito pool collected in the same province. Up to the end of July 2013, WNV circulation was further detected in several other pools of Cx. pipiens mosquitoes collected in Emilia-Romagna, Veneto and Lombardia. According to the NS3 partial sequence alignments including all recent European and Italian Lineage 2 strains, the new circulating WNV lineage 2 strains share high nt homology with the Hungarian and with the previous lineage 2 strains isolated in Veneto and Sardegna in 2011 and 2012. These data provide a clear and practical demonstration of the relevance of a reliable entomological surveillance program to early detect WNV in Italy.

  4. The SAFER-Project and Seismic Early Warning in Europe (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zschau, J.; Gasparini, P.

    2009-12-01

    SAFER (Seismic EArly Warning For EuRope) is the first large scale scientific project in Europe on earthquake early warning. It is funded by the European Commission in the context of Framework Program 6 under the theme Sustainable Development, Global Change and Ecosystems. Its general objective is to develop knowledge and tools for increasing the capability of effective earthquake early warning in Europe and to implement and test these tools in selected European cities. The SAFER project was carried out between 2006 and 2009 by a consortium formed by 20 institutes from 11 European and Mediterranean countries (Germany, Italy, Greece, Romania, Switzerland, Norway, France, the Netherlands, Iceland, Turkey and Egypt) and one each from Japan, Taiwan and USA. Five major earthquake prone cities were chosen as test areas: Athens, Bucharest, Cairo, Istanbul and Naples. The combined population of these cities is about 40 million inhabitants and all have experienced severe earthquakes in recent years. SAFER is strongly multi-disciplinary, calling upon expertise in seismology, structural and geotechnical engineering, informatics and statistics. Some of the specific problems addressed are related to - the rapid determination of earthquake size, complex earthquake features, and damage potential; - the implementation of a fully probabilistic framework for applications of earthquake early warning based on cost-benefit analysis; - the development of a new generation of early warning systems being decentralised and people-centred, and - the implementation of the real-time “shake map”-technology in large European cities. The presentation will review the major scientific findings, comment on the improvements of the earthquake early warning capabilities achieved by SAFER in the five test cities, and present some ideas for the future development of earthquake early warning in Europe.

  5. Early warning signals of desertification transitions in semiarid ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corrado, Raffaele; Cherubini, Anna Maria; Pennetta, Cecilia

    2014-12-01

    The identification of early warning signals for regime shifts in ecosystems is of crucial importance given their impact in terms of economic and social effects. We present here the results of a theoretical study on the desertification transition in semiarid ecosystems under external stress. We performed numerical simulations based on a stochastic cellular automaton model, and we studied the dynamics of the vegetation clusters in terms of percolation theory, assumed as an effective tool for analyzing the geometrical properties of the clusters. Focusing on the role played by the strength of external stresses, measured by the mortality rate m , we followed the progressive degradation of the ecosystem for increasing m , identifying different stages: first, the fragmentation transition occurring at relatively low values of m , then the desertification transition at higher mortality rates, and finally the full desertification transition corresponding to the extinction of the vegetation and the almost complete degradation of the soil, attained at the maximum value of m . For each transition we calculated the spanning probabilities as functions of m and the percolation thresholds according to different spanning criteria. The identification of the different thresholds is proposed as an useful tool for monitoring the increasing degradation of real-world finite-size systems. Moreover, we studied the time fluctuations of the sizes of the biggest clusters of vegetated and nonvegetated cells over the entire range of mortality values. The change of sign in the skewness of the size distributions, occurring at the fragmentation threshold for the biggest vegetation cluster and at the desertification threshold for the nonvegetated cluster, offers new early warning signals for desertification. Other new and robust indicators are given by the maxima of the root-mean-square deviation of the distributions, which are attained respectively inside the fragmentation interval, for the

  6. Early warning of critical transitions in biodiversity from compositional disorder

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Doncaster, C. Patrick; Alonso Chávez, Vasthi; Viguier, Clément;

    2016-01-01

    of species in the community. In a stochastic simulation, sequential correlations over time switch from positive to negative as keystones prevail over canaries, and back to positive with domination of weedy species. The model finds support in empirical tests on multi-decadal time series of fossil diatom...... the identification of early-warning signals from other metrics....

  7. Current Status on Flood Forecasting and Early Warning in Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thiemig, V.; Roo, A.P.J. de

    2011-01-01

    An overview of the current state of flood forecasting and early warning in Africa is provided in order to identify future user needs and research. Information was collected by reviewing previously published research in the scientific literature and from institutional websites. This information was

  8. Current Status on Flood Forecasting and Early Warning in Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thiemig, V.; Roo, A.P.J. de

    2011-01-01

    An overview of the current state of flood forecasting and early warning in Africa is provided in order to identify future user needs and research. Information was collected by reviewing previously published research in the scientific literature and from institutional websites. This information was s

  9. Current Status on Flood Forecasting and Early Warning in Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thiemig, V.; Roo, A.P.J. de

    2011-01-01

    An overview of the current state of flood forecasting and early warning in Africa is provided in order to identify future user needs and research. Information was collected by reviewing previously published research in the scientific literature and from institutional websites. This information was s

  10. Application of data mining methods to establish systems for early warning and proactive control in food supply chain networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, Y.

    2010-01-01

    Food quality problems in Food Supply Chain Networks (FSCN) have not only brought losses to the food industry, but also risks to the health of consumers. In current FSCN, Information Systems are widely used. Those information systems contain the data about various aspects of food production (e.g. pri

  11. Application of data mining methods to establish systems for early warning and proactive control in food supply chain networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, Y.

    2010-01-01

    Food quality problems in Food Supply Chain Networks (FSCN) have not only brought losses to the food industry, but also risks to the health of consumers. In current FSCN, Information Systems are widely used. Those information systems contain the data about various aspects of food production (e.g. pri

  12. Application of data mining methods to establish systems for early warning and proactive control in food supply chain networks