WorldWideScience

Sample records for early pandemic influenza

  1. Pandemic Influenza: Domestic Preparedness Efforts

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lister, Sarah A

    2005-01-01

    .... Though influenza pandemics occur with some regularity, and the United States has been involved in specific planning efforts since the early 1990s, the H5N1 situation has created a sense of urgency...

  2. Early-warning signals for an outbreak of the influenza pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Di; Gao, Jie

    2011-12-01

    Over the course of human history, influenza pandemics have been seen as major disasters, so studies on the influenza virus have become an important issue for many experts and scholars. Comprehensive research has been performed over the years on the biological properties, chemical characteristics, external environmental factors and other aspects of the virus, and some results have been achieved. Based on the chaos game representation walk model, this paper uses the time series analysis method to study the DNA sequences of the influenza virus from 1913 to 2010, and works out the early-warning signals indicator value for the outbreak of an influenza pandemic. The variances in the CGR walk sequences for the pandemic years (or + -1 to 2 years) are significantly higher than those for the adjacent years, while those in the non-pandemic years are usually smaller. In this way we can provide an influenza early-warning mechanism so that people can take precautions and be well prepared prior to a pandemic.

  3. Early-warning signals for an outbreak of the influenza pandemic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren Di; Gao Jie

    2011-01-01

    Over the course of human history, influenza pandemics have been seen as major disasters, so studies on the influenza virus have become an important issue for many experts and scholars. Comprehensive research has been performed over the years on the biological properties, chemical characteristics, external environmental factors and other aspects of the virus, and some results have been achieved. Based on the chaos game representation walk model, this paper uses the time series analysis method to study the DNA sequences of the influenza virus from 1913 to 2010, and works out the early-warning signals indicator value for the outbreak of an influenza pandemic. The variances in the CGR walk sequences for the pandemic years (or + −1 to 2 years) are significantly higher than those for the adjacent years, while those in the non-pandemic years are usually smaller. In this way we can provide an influenza early-warning mechanism so that people can take precautions and be well prepared prior to a pandemic. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  4. Pandemic influenza: certain uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morens, David M.; Taubenberger, Jeffery K.

    2011-01-01

    SUMMARY For at least five centuries, major epidemics and pandemics of influenza have occurred unexpectedly and at irregular intervals. Despite the modern notion that pandemic influenza is a distinct phenomenon obeying such constant (if incompletely understood) rules such as dramatic genetic change, cyclicity, “wave” patterning, virus replacement, and predictable epidemic behavior, much evidence suggests the opposite. Although there is much that we know about pandemic influenza, there appears to be much more that we do not know. Pandemics arise as a result of various genetic mechanisms, have no predictable patterns of mortality among different age groups, and vary greatly in how and when they arise and recur. Some are followed by new pandemics, whereas others fade gradually or abruptly into long-term endemicity. Human influenza pandemics have been caused by viruses that evolved singly or in co-circulation with other pandemic virus descendants and often have involved significant transmission between, or establishment of, viral reservoirs within other animal hosts. In recent decades, pandemic influenza has continued to produce numerous unanticipated events that expose fundamental gaps in scientific knowledge. Influenza pandemics appear to be not a single phenomenon but a heterogeneous collection of viral evolutionary events whose similarities are overshadowed by important differences, the determinants of which remain poorly understood. These uncertainties make it difficult to predict influenza pandemics and, therefore, to adequately plan to prevent them. PMID:21706672

  5. Estimating the incidence reporting rates of new influenza pandemics at an early stage using travel data from the source country.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chong, K C; Fong, H F; Zee, C Y

    2014-05-01

    During the surveillance of influenza pandemics, underreported data are a public health challenge that complicates the understanding of pandemic threats and can undermine mitigation efforts. We propose a method to estimate incidence reporting rates at early stages of new influenza pandemics using 2009 pandemic H1N1 as an example. Routine surveillance data and statistics of travellers arriving from Mexico were used. Our method incorporates changes in reporting rates such as linearly increasing trends due to the enhanced surveillance. From our results, the reporting rate was estimated at 0·46% during early stages of the pandemic in Mexico. We estimated cumulative incidence in the Mexican population to be 0·7% compared to 0·003% reported by officials in Mexico at the end of April. This method could be useful in estimation of actual cases during new influenza pandemics for policy makers to better determine appropriate control measures.

  6. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  7. Influenza pandemic planning guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-11-15

    An influenza pandemic will have serious economic impacts on the natural gas industry due to absenteeism as well as downstream effects due to supply disruption.This guide was prepared to assist gas distribution companies in planning for an influenza epidemic. The guide aimed to minimize the risks that an influenza pandemic might pose to the health and safety of employees and the continuity of business operations. The guide discussed 5 critical aspects of emergency planning: (1) prevention and threat mitigation; (2) preparedness; (3) response; (4) business continuity; and (5) communication. The legal context of the emergency plans were discussed. The plans were also discussed to other essential infrastructure emergency response plans. Recommendations were presented for infection control, decentralization and access restriction. Outlines for pandemic response planning teams and training and exercise programs were provided. Issues related to alert, mobilization, and response procedures were also discussed. 10 refs., 3 tabs., 1 fig.

  8. Pandemic swine influenza virus: Preparedness planning | Ojogba ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The novel H1N1 influenza virus that emerged in humans in Mexico in early 2009 and transmitted efficiently in the human population with global spread was declared a pandemic strain. The introduction of different avian and human influenza virus genes into swine influenza viruses often result in viruses of increased fitness ...

  9. Influenza pandemics and avian flu

    OpenAIRE

    Fleming, Douglas

    2005-01-01

    Douglas Fleming is general practitioner in a large suburban practice in Birmingham. In this article he seeks to clarify clinical issues relating to potential pandemics of influenza, including avian influenza

  10. Estimation of the reproductive number and the serial interval in early phase of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in the USA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    White, Laura Forsberg; Wallinga, Jacco; Finelli, Lyn; Reed, Carrie; Riley, Steven; Lipsitch, Marc; Pagano, Marcello

    2009-01-01

    Background The United States was the second country to have a major outbreak of novel influenza A/H1N1 in what has become a new pandemic. Appropriate public health responses to this pandemic depend in part on early estimates of key epidemiological parameters of the virus in defined populations.

  11. Influenza Pandemic Infrastructure Response in Thailand

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    Influenza viruses change antigenic properties, or drift, every year and they create seasonal outbreaks. Occasionally, influenza viruses change in a major way, called a “shift." If an influenza virus shifts, the entire human population is susceptible to the new influenza virus, creating the potential for a pandemic. On this podcast, CDC's Dr. Scott Dowell discusses responding to an influenza pandemic.

  12. Absenteeism in schools during the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic: a useful tool for early detection of influenza activity in the community?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kara, E O; Elliot, A J; Bagnall, H; Foord, D G F; Pnaiser, R; Osman, H; Smith, G E; Olowokure, B

    2012-07-01

    Certain influenza outbreaks, including the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic, can predominantly affect school-age children. Therefore the use of school absenteeism data has been considered as a potential tool for providing early warning of increasing influenza activity in the community. This study retrospectively evaluates the usefulness of these data by comparing them with existing syndromic surveillance systems and laboratory data. Weekly mean percentages of absenteeism in 373 state schools (children aged 4-18 years) in Birmingham, UK, from September 2006 to September 2009, were compared with established syndromic surveillance systems including a telephone health helpline, a general practitioner sentinel network and laboratory data for influenza. Correlation coefficients were used to examine the relationship between each syndromic system. In June 2009, school absenteeism generally peaked concomitantly with the existing influenza surveillance systems in England. Weekly school absenteeism surveillance would not have detected pandemic influenza A(H1N1) earlier but daily absenteeism data and the development of baselines could improve the timeliness of the system.

  13. Stockpiling Ventilators for Influenza Pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Hsin-Chan; Araz, Ozgur M; Morton, David P; Johnson, Gregory P; Damien, Paul; Clements, Bruce; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

    2017-06-01

    In preparing for influenza pandemics, public health agencies stockpile critical medical resources. Determining appropriate quantities and locations for such resources can be challenging, given the considerable uncertainty in the timing and severity of future pandemics. We introduce a method for optimizing stockpiles of mechanical ventilators, which are critical for treating hospitalized influenza patients in respiratory failure. As a case study, we consider the US state of Texas during mild, moderate, and severe pandemics. Optimal allocations prioritize local over central storage, even though the latter can be deployed adaptively, on the basis of real-time needs. This prioritization stems from high geographic correlations and the slightly lower treatment success assumed for centrally stockpiled ventilators. We developed our model and analysis in collaboration with academic researchers and a state public health agency and incorporated it into a Web-based decision-support tool for pandemic preparedness and response.

  14. A definition for influenza pandemics based on historical records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, Chris W; Jennings, Roy

    2011-10-01

    To analyse the records of past influenza outbreaks to determine a definition for pandemics. Analysis of publications of large outbreaks of influenza which have occurred since 1889/90, and to match the results against the current definitions of an influenza pandemic. According to the general understanding of a pandemic, nine outbreaks of influenza since 1889/90 satisfy the definition; however, for two of these, occurring in 1900 and 1933, the data are limited. The special condition for an influenza pandemic requires, in one definition, that the virus strain responsible could not have arisen from the previous circulating strain by mutation; and in the second, that the new strain be a different subtype to the previously circulating strain. Both these restrictions deny pandemic status to two, and possibly three, influenza outbreaks which were pandemics according to the more general understanding of the term. These observations suggest that a re-evaluation of the criteria which define influenza pandemics should be carried out. The contradiction outlined above brings the previous definitions of an influenza pandemic into question; however, this can be resolved by defining an influenza pandemic by the following criteria. Thus, an influenza pandemic arises at a single, specific place and spreads rapidly to involve numerous countries. The haemagglutinin (HA) of the emergent virus does not cross-react serologically with the previously dominant virus strain(s), and there is a significant lack of immunity in the population against the emergent virus. These three criteria are interlinked and can be determined early to alert authorities who could respond appropriately. Other criteria associated with pandemics are necessarily retrospective, although important and valid. The implications of this definition are discussed. Copyright © 2011 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Is sunspot activity a factor in influenza pandemics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Jiangwen

    2016-09-01

    The 2009 AH1N1 pandemic became a global health concern, although fortunately, its worst anticipated effects were not realised. While the origins of such outbreaks remain poorly understood, it is very important to identify the precipitating factors in their emergence so that future pandemics can be detected as quickly as possible. Methords: Descriptive epidemiology was used to analyse the association between influenza pandemics and possible pandemics and relative number of sunspots. Non-conditional logistic regression was performed to analyse the statistical association between sunspot extremes and influenza pandemics to within plus or minus 1 year. Almost all recorded influenza/possible pandemics have occurred in time frames corresponding to sunspot extremes, or +/- 1 year within such extremes. These periods were identified as important risk factors in both possible and confirmed influenza pandemics (odds ratio: 3.87; 95% confidence interval: 1.08 to 13.85). Extremes of sunspot activity to within plus or minus 1 year may precipitate influenza pandemics. Mechanisms of epidemic initiation and early spread are discussed including primary causation by externally derived viral variants (from space via cometary dust). Efforts to construct a comprehensive early warning system for potential influenza and other viral pandemics that include analysis of sunspot activity and stratospheric sampling for viral variants should be supported. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. [History of pandemic influenza in Japan].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumoto, Keizo

    2010-09-01

    In Japan, influenza like epidemics were described many times since Heian era. However, Spanish flu as the modern medicine invaded Japan in 1918, thus almost infected 390,000 patients died with associated pneumonia. After the discovery of influenza virus in 1933, Japan experienced pandemic influenza--Asian flu(H2N2) in 1957. After about 10 years, Hong Kong flu (H3N2) came to Japan at 1968. However, we had many reliable antibiotics but had not any antiviral drug at the early time. After year 2000, we fortunately obtained reliable three antiviral drugs such as amantadine, oseltamivir and zanamivir. Moreover, very useful rapid test kits for influenza A and B viruses were developed and used in Japan. 2009 H1N1 influenza epidemic occured in Japan after the great epidemic in Mexico and North America but elderly patient was few. With together, host conditions regarding with high risk are changing. Lessons from past several pandemic influenza are those that many issues for changing high risk conditions, viral genetic changes, developing antiviral agents, developing new useful vaccins and determinating bacterial secondary pathogens are important.

  17. Virulence determinants of pandemic influenza viruses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tscherne, Donna M.; García-Sastre, Adolfo

    2011-01-01

    Influenza A viruses cause recurrent, seasonal epidemics and occasional global pandemics with devastating levels of morbidity and mortality. The ability of influenza A viruses to adapt to various hosts and undergo reassortment events ensures constant generation of new strains with unpredictable degrees of pathogenicity, transmissibility, and pandemic potential. Currently, the combination of factors that drives the emergence of pandemic influenza is unclear, making it impossible to foresee the details of a future outbreak. Identification and characterization of influenza A virus virulence determinants may provide insight into genotypic signatures of pathogenicity as well as a more thorough understanding of the factors that give rise to pandemics. PMID:21206092

  18. Early Characterization of the Severity and Transmissibility of Pandemic Influenza Using Clinical Episode Data from Multiple Populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pete Riley

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The potential rapid availability of large-scale clinical episode data during the next influenza pandemic suggests an opportunity for increasing the speed with which novel respiratory pathogens can be characterized. Key intervention decisions will be determined by both the transmissibility of the novel strain (measured by the basic reproductive number R0 and its individual-level severity. The 2009 pandemic illustrated that estimating individual-level severity, as described by the proportion pC of infections that result in clinical cases, can remain uncertain for a prolonged period of time. Here, we use 50 distinct US military populations during 2009 as a retrospective cohort to test the hypothesis that real-time encounter data combined with disease dynamic models can be used to bridge this uncertainty gap. Effectively, we estimated the total number of infections in multiple early-affected communities using the model and divided that number by the known number of clinical cases. Joint estimates of severity and transmissibility clustered within a relatively small region of parameter space, with 40 of the 50 populations bounded by: pC, 0.0133-0.150 and R0, 1.09-2.16. These fits were obtained despite widely varying incidence profiles: some with spring waves, some with fall waves and some with both. To illustrate the benefit of specific pairing of rapidly available data and infectious disease models, we simulated a future moderate pandemic strain with pC approximately ×10 that of 2009; the results demonstrating that even before the peak had passed in the first affected population, R0 and pC could be well estimated. This study provides a clear reference in this two-dimensional space against which future novel respiratory pathogens can be rapidly assessed and compared with previous pandemics.

  19. Simplifying influenza vaccination during pandemics : sublingual priming and intramuscular boosting of immune responses with heterologous whole inactivated influenza vaccine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Murugappan, Senthil; Patil, Harshad P; Frijlink, Henderik W; Huckriede, Anke; Hinrichs, Wouter L J

    2014-01-01

    The best approach to control the spread of influenza virus during a pandemic is vaccination. Yet, an appropriate vaccine is not available early in the pandemic since vaccine production is time consuming. For influenza strains with a high pandemic potential like H5N1, stockpiling of vaccines has been

  20. Pandemic Influenza Pediatric Office Plan Template

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    HCTT CHE

    2010-01-01

    This is a planning tool developed by pediatric stakeholders that is intended to assist pediatric medical offices that have no pandemic influenza plan in place, but may experience an increase in patient calls/visits or workload due to pandemic influenza.

  1. Economic and policy implications of pandemic influenza.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Braeton J.; Starks, Shirley J.; Loose, Verne W.; Brown, Theresa Jean; Warren, Drake E.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-03-01

    Pandemic influenza has become a serious global health concern; in response, governments around the world have allocated increasing funds to containment of public health threats from this disease. Pandemic influenza is also recognized to have serious economic implications, causing illness and absence that reduces worker productivity and economic output and, through mortality, robs nations of their most valuable assets - human resources. This paper reports two studies that investigate both the short- and long-term economic implications of a pandemic flu outbreak. Policy makers can use the growing number of economic impact estimates to decide how much to spend to combat the pandemic influenza outbreaks. Experts recognize that pandemic influenza has serious global economic implications. The illness causes absenteeism, reduced worker productivity, and therefore reduced economic output. This, combined with the associated mortality rate, robs nations of valuable human resources. Policy makers can use economic impact estimates to decide how much to spend to combat the pandemic influenza outbreaks. In this paper economists examine two studies which investigate both the short- and long-term economic implications of a pandemic influenza outbreak. Resulting policy implications are also discussed. The research uses the Regional Economic Modeling, Inc. (REMI) Policy Insight + Model. This model provides a dynamic, regional, North America Industrial Classification System (NAICS) industry-structured framework for forecasting. It is supported by a population dynamics model that is well-adapted to investigating macro-economic implications of pandemic influenza, including possible demand side effects. The studies reported in this paper exercise all of these capabilities.

  2. Influenza Pandemic Infrastructure Response in Thailand

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2009-03-05

    Influenza viruses change antigenic properties, or drift, every year and they create seasonal outbreaks. Occasionally, influenza viruses change in a major way, called a “shift." If an influenza virus shifts, the entire human population is susceptible to the new influenza virus, creating the potential for a pandemic. On this podcast, CDC's Dr. Scott Dowell discusses responding to an influenza pandemic.  Created: 3/5/2009 by Emerging Infectious Diseases.   Date Released: 3/5/2009.

  3. Influenza in the immediate post-pandemic era : A comparison with seasonal and pandemic influenza in hospitalized patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rahamat-Langendoen, J. C.; Tutuhatunewa, E. D.; Scholvinck, E. H.; Hak, E.; Koopmans, M.; Niesters, H. G. M.; Riezebos-Brilman, A.

    Background: Comparative data on severity and treatment of seasonal, pandemic and post-pandemic influenza virus infections are scarce. Objectives: To systematically analyze characteristics of hospitalized patients with influenza in the post-pandemic period compared to seasonal and pandemic influenza.

  4. Mathematical assessment of Canada's pandemic influenza preparedness plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gumel, Abba B; Nuño, Miriam; Chowell, Gerardo

    2008-03-01

    The presence of the highly pathogenic avian H5N1 virus in wild bird populations in several regions of the world, together with recurrent cases of H5N1 influenza arising primarily from direct contact with poultry, have highlighted the urgent need for prepared-ness and coordinated global strategies to effectively combat a potential influenza pandemic. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the Canadian pandemic influenza preparedness plan. A mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of influenza was used to keep track of the population according to risk of infection (low or high) and infection status (susceptible, exposed or infectious). The model was parametrized using available Canadian demographic data. The model was then used to evaluate the key components outlined in the Canadian plan. The results indicated that the number of cases, mortalities and hospitalizations estimated in the Canadian plan may have been underestimated; the use of antivirals, administered therapeutically, prophylactically or both, is the most effective single intervention followed by the use of a vaccine and basic public health measures; and the combined use of pharmaceutical interventions (antivirals and vaccine) can dramatically minimize the burden of the pending influenza pandemic in Canada. Based on increasing concerns of Oseltamivir resistance (wide-scale implementation), coupled with the expected unavailability of a suitable vaccine during the early stages of a pandemic, the present study evaluated the potential impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) which were not emphasized in the current Canadian plan. To this end, the findings suggest that the use of NPIs can drastically reduce the burden of a pandemic in Canada. A deterministic model was designed and used to assess Canada's pandemic preparedness plan. The study showed that the estimates of pandemic influenza burden given in the Canada pandemic preparedness plan may be an underestimate, and that Canada

  5. Secondary Bacterial Infections Associated with Influenza Pandemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Denise E.; Cleary, David W.; Clarke, Stuart C.

    2017-01-01

    Lower and upper respiratory infections are the fourth highest cause of global mortality (Lozano et al., 2012). Epidemic and pandemic outbreaks of respiratory infection are a major medical concern, often causing considerable disease and a high death toll, typically over a relatively short period of time. Influenza is a major cause of epidemic and pandemic infection. Bacterial co/secondary infection further increases morbidity and mortality of influenza infection, with Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, and Staphylococcus aureus reported as the most common causes. With increased antibiotic resistance and vaccine evasion it is important to monitor the epidemiology of pathogens in circulation to inform clinical treatment and development, particularly in the setting of an influenza epidemic/pandemic. PMID:28690590

  6. Secondary Bacterial Infections Associated with Influenza Pandemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise E. Morris

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Lower and upper respiratory infections are the fourth highest cause of global mortality (Lozano et al., 2012. Epidemic and pandemic outbreaks of respiratory infection are a major medical concern, often causing considerable disease and a high death toll, typically over a relatively short period of time. Influenza is a major cause of epidemic and pandemic infection. Bacterial co/secondary infection further increases morbidity and mortality of influenza infection, with Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, and Staphylococcus aureus reported as the most common causes. With increased antibiotic resistance and vaccine evasion it is important to monitor the epidemiology of pathogens in circulation to inform clinical treatment and development, particularly in the setting of an influenza epidemic/pandemic.

  7. 77 FR 13329 - Pandemic Influenza Vaccines-Amendment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-06

    ... DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Office of the Secretary Pandemic Influenza Vaccines... Secretary issued a declaration for pandemic influenza vaccines, which has been amended a number of times. The original pandemic influenza vaccine declaration was published on January 26, 2007,\\1\\ and was...

  8. Workplace health and safety during pandemic influenza : CAGC guideline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-11-15

    Pandemic influenza is a possible biological hazard that employers must take into account during hazard assessment and emergency planning. This report presented a guideline to all workplaces in Alberta and provided information on legislated requirements, best practices, guidelines and strategies in workplace health and safety and employment standards in the event of a pandemic influenza. The report explained the difference between a pandemic and a pandemic influenza, and why scientists expect another pandemic influenza. Pandemic influenza was described as being different from seasonal influenza. This document also explained how pandemic influenza relates to the worker and the workplace, and how the workplace can prepare for and respond to pandemic influenza. Pandemic influenza hazard categories were also listed along with steps in the hazard assessment and control of pandemic influenza. The steps involve listing the types of work and work-related activities; identifying the hazard; assessing the hazards; implementing controls; communicating the information to workers and providing training; and evaluating the effectiveness of controls. The guide also addressed emergency response plan development for pandemic influenza; first aid; and employment standards during pandemic influenza. refs., tabs.

  9. Early estimation of pandemic influenza Antiviral and Vaccine Effectiveness (EAVE): use of a unique community and laboratory national data-linked cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Colin R; Lone, Nazir; McMenamin, Jim; Gunson, Rory; Robertson, Chris; Ritchie, Lewis D; Sheikh, Aziz

    2015-10-01

    After the introduction of any new pandemic influenza, population-level surveillance and rapid assessment of the effectiveness of a new vaccination will be required to ensure that it is targeted to those at increased risk of serious illness or death from influenza. We aimed to build a pandemic influenza reporting platform that will determine, once a new pandemic is under way: the uptake and effectiveness of any new pandemic vaccine or any protective effect conferred by antiviral drugs once available; the clinical attack rate of pandemic influenza; and the existence of protection provided by previous exposure to, and vaccination from, A/H1N1 pandemic or seasonal influenza/identification of susceptible groups. An observational cohort and test-negative study design will be used (post pandemic). A national linkage of patient-level general practice data from 41 Practice Team Information general practices, hospitalisation and death certification, virological swab and serology-linked data. We will study a nationally representative sample of the Scottish population comprising 300,000 patients. Confirmation of influenza using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and, in a subset of the population, serology. Future available pandemic influenza vaccination and antivirals will be evaluated. To build a reporting platform tailored towards the evaluation of pandemic influenza vaccination. This system will rapidly measure vaccine effectiveness (VE), adjusting for confounders, estimated by determining laboratory-confirmed influenza; influenza-related morbidity and mortality, including general practice influenza-like illnesses (ILIs); and hospitalisation and death from influenza and pneumonia. Once a validated haemagglutination inhibition assay has been developed (and prior to the introduction of any vaccination), cross-reactivity with previous exposure to A/H1N1 or A/H1N1 vaccination, other pandemic influenza or other seasonal influenza vaccination or exposure will be

  10. Pandemic influenza A (H1N1)

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... in Port Shepstone, South Africa. Introduction. Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 'swine flu' variant is currently a global pandemic.1 The infection associated with this virus is usually a mild, self-limiting illness. However, it may progress to severe pneumonia requiring intensive care unit (ICU) therapy in 31% of patients.2 This may.

  11. The shifting demographic landscape of pandemic influenza.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shweta Bansal

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available As Pandemic (H1N1 2009 influenza spreads around the globe, it strikes school-age children more often than adults. Although there is some evidence of pre-existing immunity among older adults, this alone may not explain the significant gap in age-specific infection rates.Based on a retrospective analysis of pandemic strains of influenza from the last century, we show that school-age children typically experience the highest attack rates in primarily naive populations, with the burden shifting to adults during the subsequent season. Using a parsimonious network-based mathematical model which incorporates the changing distribution of contacts in the susceptible population, we demonstrate that new pandemic strains of influenza are expected to shift the epidemiological landscape in exactly this way.Our analysis provides a simple demographic explanation for the age bias observed for H1N1/09 attack rates, and suggests that this bias may shift in coming months. These results have significant implications for the allocation of public health resources for H1N1/09 and future influenza pandemics.

  12. 75 FR 10268 - Pandemic Influenza Vaccines-Amendment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-05

    ... DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Office of the Secretary Pandemic Influenza Vaccines... potential to cause, sporadic human infections or have mutated to cause pandemics in humans; Whereas, these viruses may evolve into virus strains capable of causing a pandemic of human influenza because these...

  13. Epidemiological characteristics of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: A novel influenza A virus strain (H1N1-2009) spread first in Mexico and the United Stated in late April 2009, leading to the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century. The objective of this study was to determine the epidemiological and virological characteristics of the pandemic influenza A (H1N1-2009) in ...

  14. Epidemiological characteristics of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... novel influenza A virus strain (H1N1-2009) spread first in Mexico and the United Stated in late April 2009, leading to the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century. The objective of this study was to determine the epidemiological and virological characteristics of the pandemic influenza A (H1N1-2009) in Zhanjiang, China ...

  15. Influenza Pandemics: Past, Present and Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Chia Hsieh

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Influenza A virus is well known for its capability for genetic changes either through antigen drift or antigen shift. Antigen shift is derived from reassortment of gene segments between viruses, and may result in an antigenically novel virus that is capable of causing a worldwide pandemic. As we trace backwards through the history of influenza pandemics, a repeating pattern can be observed, namely, a limited wave in the first year followed by global spread in the following year. In the 20th century alone, there were three overwhelming pandemics, in 1918, 1957 and 1968, caused by H1N1 (Spanish flu, H2N2 (Asian flu and H3N2 (Hong Kong flu, respectively. In 1957 and 1968, excess mortality was noted in infants, the elderly and persons with chronic diseases, similar to what occurred during interpandemic periods. In 1918, there was one distinct peak of excess death in young adults aged between 20 and 40 years old; leukopenia and hemorrhage were prominent features. Acute pulmonary edema and hemorrhagic pneumonia contributed to rapidly lethal outcome in young adults. Autopsies disclosed multiple-organ involvement, including pericarditis, myocarditis, hepatitis and splenomegaly. These findings are, in part, consistent with clinical manifestations of human infection with avian influenza A H5N1 virus, in which reactive hemophagocytic syndrome was a characteristic pathologic finding that accounted for pancytopenia, abnormal liver function and multiple organ failure. All the elements of an impending pandemic are in place. Unless effective measures are implemented, we will likely observe a pandemic in the coming seasons. Host immune response plays a crucial role in disease caused by newly emerged influenza virus, such as the 1918 pandemic strain and the recent avian H5N1 strain. Sustained activation of lymphocytes and macrophages after infection results in massive cytokine response, thus leading to severe systemic inflammation. Further investigations into how

  16. Early host responses of seasonal and pandemic influenza A viruses in primary well-differentiated human lung epithelial cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachael L Gerlach

    Full Text Available Replication, cell tropism and the magnitude of the host's antiviral immune response each contribute to the resulting pathogenicity of influenza A viruses (IAV in humans. In contrast to seasonal IAV in human cases, the 2009 H1N1 pandemic IAV (H1N1pdm shows a greater tropism for infection of the lung similar to H5N1. We hypothesized that host responses during infection of well-differentiated, primary human bronchial epithelial cells (wd-NHBE may differ between seasonal (H1N1 A/BN/59/07 and H1N1pdm isolates from a fatal (A/KY/180/10 and nonfatal (A/KY/136/09 case. For each virus, the level of infectious virus and host response to infection (gene expression and apical/basal cytokine/chemokine profiles were measured in wd-NHBE at 8, 24, 36, 48 and 72 hours post-infection (hpi. At 24 and 36 hpi, KY/180 showed a significant, ten-fold higher titer as compared to the other two isolates. Apical cytokine/chemokine levels of IL-6, IL-8 and GRO were similar in wd-NHBE cells infected by each of these viruses. At 24 and 36 hpi, NHBE cells had greater levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines including IFN-α, CCL2, TNF-α, and CCL5, when infected by pandemic viruses as compared with seasonal. Polarization of IL-6 in wd-NHBE cells was greatest at 36 hpi for all isolates. Differential polarized secretion was suggested for CCL5 across isolates. Despite differences in viral titer across isolates, no significant differences were observed in KY/180 and KY/136 gene expression intensity profiles. Microarray profiles of wd-NHBE cells diverged at 36 hpi with 1647 genes commonly shared by wd-NHBE cells infected by pandemic, but not seasonal isolates. Significant differences were observed in cytokine signaling, apoptosis, and cytoskeletal arrangement pathways. Our studies revealed differences in temporal dynamics and basal levels of cytokine/chemokine responses of wd-NHBE cells infected with each isolate; however, wd-NHBE cell gene intensity profiles were not significantly

  17. Investing in Immunity: Prepandemic Immunization to Combat Future Influenza Pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, Jesse L

    2016-02-15

    We are unlikely, with current technologies, to have sufficient pandemic influenza vaccine ready in time to impact the first wave of the next pandemic. Emerging data show that prior immunization with an immunologically distinct hemagglutinin of the same subtype offers the potential to "prime" recipients for rapid protection with a booster dose, years later, of a vaccine then manufactured to match the pandemic strain. This article proposes making prepandemic priming vaccine(s) available for voluntary use, particularly to those at high risk of early occupational exposure, such as first responders and healthcare workers, and to others maintaining critical infrastructure. In addition to providing faster protection and potentially reducing social disruption, being able, early in a pandemic, to immunize those who had received prepandemic vaccine with one dose of the pandemic vaccine, rather than the 2 doses typically required, would reduce the total doses of pandemic vaccine then needed, extending vaccine supplies. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2015. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

  18. Rapid detection of pandemic influenza in the presence of seasonal influenza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robertson Chris

    2010-11-01

    threshold methods, respectively, have MDT of 5 and 6 weeks with both having sensitivity close to 100% while the Mov-Avg Cusum method can only manage sensitivity of 77% with MDT of 6 weeks. However, the WCR and Mov-Avg Cusum methods outperform the ILI threshold method by 1 week in retrospective detection of the 2009 pandemic in Scotland. Conclusions While computationally and statistically simple to implement, the WCR algorithm is capable of raising alarms, rapidly and sensitively, for influenza pandemics against a background of seasonal influenza. Although the algorithm was developed using the SERVIS data, it has the capacity to be used at other geographic scales and for different disease systems where buying some early extra time is critical.

  19. Rapid detection of pandemic influenza in the presence of seasonal influenza

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    , respectively, have MDT of 5 and 6 weeks with both having sensitivity close to 100% while the Mov-Avg Cusum method can only manage sensitivity of 77% with MDT of 6 weeks. However, the WCR and Mov-Avg Cusum methods outperform the ILI threshold method by 1 week in retrospective detection of the 2009 pandemic in Scotland. Conclusions While computationally and statistically simple to implement, the WCR algorithm is capable of raising alarms, rapidly and sensitively, for influenza pandemics against a background of seasonal influenza. Although the algorithm was developed using the SERVIS data, it has the capacity to be used at other geographic scales and for different disease systems where buying some early extra time is critical. PMID:21106071

  20. Preparing for an influenza pandemic: ethical issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotalik, Jaro

    2005-08-01

    In the near future, experts predict, an influenza pandemic will likely spread throughout the world. Many countries have been creating a contingency plan in order to mitigate the severe health and social consequences of such an event. Examination of the pandemic plans of Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States, from an ethical perspective, raises several concerns. One: scarcity of human and material resources is assumed to be severe. Plans focus on prioritization but do not identify resources that would be optimally required to reduce deaths and other serious consequences. Hence, these plans do not facilitate a truly informed choice at the political level where decisions have to be made on how much to invest now in order to reduce scarcity when a pandemic occurs. Two: mass vaccination is considered to be the most important instrument for reducing the impact of infection, yet pandemic plans do not provide concrete estimates of the benefits and burdens of vaccination to assure everyone that the balance is highly favorable. Three: pandemic plans make extraordinary demands on health care workers, yet professional organizations and unions may not have been involved in the plans' formulation and they have not been assured that authorities will aim to protect and support health care workers in a way that corresponds to the demands made on them. Four: all sectors of society and all individuals will be affected by a pandemic and everyone's collaboration will be required. Yet, it appears that the various populations have been inadequately informed by occasional media reports. Hence, it is essential that plans are developed and communication programs implemented that will not only inform but also create an atmosphere of mutual trust and solidarity; qualities that at the time of a pandemic will be much needed.

  1. Adjuvant solution for pandemic influenza vaccine production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clegg, Christopher H; Roque, Richard; Van Hoeven, Neal; Perrone, Lucy; Baldwin, Susan L; Rininger, Joseph A; Bowen, Richard A; Reed, Steven G

    2012-10-23

    Extensive preparation is underway to mitigate the next pandemic influenza outbreak. New vaccine technologies intended to supplant egg-based production methods are being developed, with recombinant hemagglutinin (rHA) as the most advanced program for preventing seasonal and avian H5N1 Influenza. Increased efforts are being focused on adjuvants that can broaden vaccine immunogenicity against emerging viruses and maximize vaccine supply on a worldwide scale. Here, we test protection against avian flu by using H5N1-derived rHA and GLA-SE, a two-part adjuvant system containing glucopyranosyl lipid adjuvant (GLA), a formulated synthetic Toll-like receptor 4 agonist, and a stable emulsion (SE) of oil in water, which is similar to the best-in-class adjuvants being developed for pandemic flu. Notably, a single submicrogram dose of rH5 adjuvanted with GLA-SE protects mice and ferrets against a high titer challenge with H5N1 virus. GLA-SE, relative to emulsion alone, accelerated induction of the primary immune response and broadened its durability against heterosubtypic H5N1 virus challenge. Mechanistically, GLA-SE augments protection via induction of a Th1-mediated antibody response. Innate signaling pathways that amplify priming of Th1 CD4 T cells will likely improve vaccine performance against future outbreaks of lethal pandemic flu.

  2. Health and economic benefits of early vaccination and nonpharmaceutical interventions for a human influenza A (H7N9) pandemic: a modeling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khazeni, Nayer; Hutton, David W; Collins, Cassandra I F; Garber, Alan M; Owens, Douglas K

    2014-05-20

    Vaccination for the 2009 pandemic did not occur until late in the outbreak, which limited its benefits. Influenza A (H7N9) is causing increasing morbidity and mortality in China, and researchers have modified the A (H5N1) virus to transmit via aerosol, which again heightens concerns about pandemic influenza preparedness. To determine how quickly vaccination should be completed to reduce infections, deaths, and health care costs in a pandemic with characteristics similar to influenza A (H7N9) and A (H5N1). Dynamic transmission model to estimate health and economic consequences of a severe influenza pandemic in a large metropolitan city. Literature and expert opinion. Residents of a U.S. metropolitan city with characteristics similar to New York City. Lifetime. Societal. Vaccination of 30% of the population at 4 or 6 months. Infections and deaths averted and cost-effectiveness. In 12 months, 48 254 persons would die. Vaccinating at 9 months would avert 2365 of these deaths. Vaccinating at 6 months would save 5775 additional lives and $51 million at a city level. Accelerating delivery to 4 months would save an additional 5633 lives and $50 million. If vaccination were delayed for 9 months, reducing contacts by 8% through nonpharmaceutical interventions would yield a similar reduction in infections and deaths as vaccination at 4 months. The model is not designed to evaluate programs targeting specific populations, such as children or persons with comorbid conditions. Vaccination in an influenza A (H7N9) pandemic would need to be completed much faster than in 2009 to substantially reduce morbidity, mortality, and health care costs. Maximizing non-pharmaceutical interventions can substantially mitigate the pandemic until a matched vaccine becomes available. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, National Institutes of Health, and Department of Veterans Affairs.

  3. Global Mortality Impact of the 1957-1959 Influenza Pandemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Fuentes, Rodrigo

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Quantitative estimates of the global burden of the 1957 influenza pandemic are lacking. Here we fill this gap by modeling historical mortality statistics. METHODS: We used annual rates of age- and cause-specific deaths to estimate pandemic-related mortality in excess of background...... levels in 39 countries in Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, and the Americas. We modeled the relationship between excess mortality and development indicators to extrapolate the global burden of the pandemic. RESULTS: The pandemic-associated excess respiratory mortality rate was 1.9/10,000 population (95...... excess deaths (95% CI, .7 million-1.5 million excess deaths) globally to the 1957-1959 pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: The global mortality rate of the 1957-1959 influenza pandemic was moderate relative to that of the 1918 pandemic but was approximately 10-fold greater than that of the 2009 pandemic. The impact...

  4. Updated preparedness and response framework for influenza pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holloway, Rachel; Rasmussen, Sonja A; Zaza, Stephanie; Cox, Nancy J; Jernigan, Daniel B

    2014-09-26

    The complexities of planning for and responding to the emergence of novel influenza viruses emphasize the need for systematic frameworks to describe the progression of the event; weigh the risk of emergence and potential public health impact; evaluate transmissibility, antiviral resistance, and severity; and make decisions about interventions. On the basis of experience from recent influenza responses, CDC has updated its framework to describe influenza pandemic progression using six intervals (two prepandemic and four pandemic intervals) and eight domains. This updated framework can be used for influenza pandemic planning and serves as recommendations for risk assessment, decision-making, and action in the United States. The updated framework replaces the U.S. federal government stages from the 2006 implementation plan for the National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza (US Homeland Security Council. National strategy for pandemic influenza: implementation plan. Washington, DC: US Homeland Security Council; 2006. Available at http://www.flu.gov/planning-preparedness/federal/pandemic-influenza-implementation.pdf). The six intervals of the updated framework are as follows: 1) investigation of cases of novel influenza, 2) recognition of increased potential for ongoing transmission, 3) initiation of a pandemic wave, 4) acceleration of a pandemic wave, 5) deceleration of a pandemic wave, and 6) preparation for future pandemic waves. The following eight domains are used to organize response efforts within each interval: incident management, surveillance and epidemiology, laboratory, community mitigation, medical care and countermeasures, vaccine, risk communications, and state/local coordination. Compared with the previous U.S. government stages, this updated framework provides greater detail and clarity regarding the potential timing of key decisions and actions aimed at slowing the spread and mitigating the impact of an emerging pandemic. Use of this updated framework is

  5. Mathematical Assessment of Canada’s Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Plan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abba B Gumel

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The presence of the highly pathogenic avian H5N1 virus in wild bird populations in several regions of the world, together with recurrent cases of H5N1 influenza arising primarily from direct contact with poultry, have highlighted the urgent need for prepared-ness and coordinated global strategies to effectively combat a potential influenza pandemic. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the Canadian pandemic influenza preparedness plan.

  6. Influenza: the next pandemic?: a review | Adungo, | East African ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Due to the diversity of susceptible reservoirs of influenza viruses and the interspecies transmission recently reported, a mutated strain of the virus to which people have no immunity could cause an influenza pandemic once the virus gains efficient and sustained human-to-human transmission. The fear that avian influenza ...

  7. Abbreviated Pandemic Influenza Planning Template for Primary Care Offices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    HCTT CHE

    2010-01-01

    The Abbreviated Pandemic Influenza Plan Template for Primary Care Provider Offices is intended to assist primary care providers and office managers with preparing their offices for quickly putting a plan in place to handle an increase in patient calls and visits, whether during the 2009-2010 influenza season or future influenza seasons.

  8. Considerable progress in European preparations for a potential influenza pandemic.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paget, J.

    2005-01-01

    The threat of an influenza pandemic has been heightened in the past two years by outbreaks of avian influenza concentrated in South East Asia which have resulted in human deaths. So far, the avian influenza virus seems difficult to transmit from human to human, but changes in the virus genome may

  9. Waves of El Nino-southern Oscillation and Influenza Pandemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olusegun Steven Ayodele Oluwole

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Influenza pandemics have occurred at irregular intervals for over 500 years, unlike seasonal influenza epidemics which occur annually. Although the risk factors are known, the basis for the timing of influenza pandemic waves are unknown. Coherence of peaks of El Niño and influenza pandemic in 2009–2010, however, suggests that both waves are coupled. This study was done to determine the relation of influenza pandemics to the peaks and waveforms of El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO. ENSO cycles from 1871–2015 which had El Niño phases were windowed from Multivariate El Niño Index. Influenza pandemic peaks were mapped to ENSO monthly time series. ENSO waveforms were compared graphically, and fitted to nonstationary cosinor models. Second order polynomial regression model was fitted to the peak and duration of El Niño. Agglomerative hierarchical cluster of ENSO waveforms was performed. All influenza pandemic peaks mapped to El Niño peaks, with lags of 0–5 months. ENSO waveforms during influenza pandemics share parameters of oscillation. Nonstationary cosinor models showed that ENSO cycles are complex waves. There was second order polynomial relationship between peak and duration of El Niños, p < 0.0001. ENSO waveforms clustered into four distinct groups. ENSO waveforms during influenza pandemics of 1889–1900, 1957–1958, and 1968–1969 linked closely. ENSO indices were significantly high from 7–16 months after onset of cycles, p < 0.0001. Surveillance for El Niño events to forecast periods of maximal transmission and survival of influenza A viruses is, therefore, crucial for public health control strategies.

  10. Pandemic influenza: is there a corporate duty to prepare?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMenamin, Joseph P

    2009-01-01

    This article considers whether in the wake of an influenza pandemic companies may be exposed to claims of legal liability for failing to provide employees with access to antiviral medications, as the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) now encourages businesses to do. It begins by describing influenza and influenza pandemics. It then discusses the benefits and limitations of antiviral therapies and the recent creation of antiviral option programs. It concludes by considering whether claims may be brought on the theory that corporate leadership is under a duty to prepare for a pandemic by considering whether to provide access to antiviral protection for employees.

  11. [Ethical principles of management and planning during influenza pandemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubar', O I; Asatrian, A Zh

    2012-01-01

    The article is dedicated to an actual problem of ethical component inclusion into the system of management and planning of epidemic control measures during threat emergence and in the course of influenza pandemic (epidemic) progress. Data regarding development of international ethical guidelines during influenza including WHO recommendations are presented and analysis of normative documents in Russian Federation is given. A necessity of comprehension and accounting of ethical values in pandemic preparedness is shown, main directions of action and responsibility are revealed. Key ethical positions of planning and implementation of measures during influenza pandemic are outlined, compliance with those determines the level of public support and thus provides the effectiveness of the implemented measures.

  12. Novel framework for assessing epidemiologic effects of influenza epidemics and pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Carrie; Biggerstaff, Matthew; Finelli, Lyn; Koonin, Lisa M; Beauvais, Denise; Uzicanin, Amra; Plummer, Andrew; Bresee, Joe; Redd, Stephen C; Jernigan, Daniel B

    2013-01-01

    The effects of influenza on a population are attributable to the clinical severity of illness and the number of persons infected, which can vary greatly between seasons or pandemics. To create a systematic framework for assessing the public health effects of an emerging pandemic, we reviewed data from past influenza seasons and pandemics to characterize severity and transmissibility (based on ranges of these measures in the United States) and outlined a formal assessment of the potential effects of a novel virus. The assessment was divided into 2 periods. Because early in a pandemic, measurement of severity and transmissibility is uncertain, we used a broad dichotomous scale in the initial assessment to divide the range of historic values. In the refined assessment, as more data became available, we categorized those values more precisely. By organizing and prioritizing data collection, this approach may inform an evidence-based assessment of pandemic effects and guide decision making.

  13. The threat of pandemic influenza: are we ready? : workshop summary

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Knobler, Stacey

    2005-01-01

    Public health officials and organizations around the world remain on high alert because of increasing concerns about the prospect of an influenza pandemic, which many experts believe to be inevitable...

  14. Public Health Planning for Vulnerable Populations and Pandemic Influenza

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Cameron, Wendy K

    2008-01-01

    This thesis addresses planning for vulnerable populations, those segments of each community that are normally independent but that may require special assistance during a health emergency such as an influenza pandemic...

  15. The cost effectiveness of pandemic influenza interventions: a pandemic severity based analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George J Milne

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The impact of a newly emerged influenza pandemic will depend on its transmissibility and severity. Understanding how these pandemic features impact on the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies is important for pandemic planning. METHODS: A cost effectiveness analysis of a comprehensive range of social distancing and antiviral drug strategies intended to mitigate a future pandemic was conducted using a simulation model of a community of ∼30,000 in Australia. Six pandemic severity categories were defined based on case fatality ratio (CFR, using data from the 2009/2010 pandemic to relate hospitalisation rates to CFR. RESULTS: Intervention strategies combining school closure with antiviral treatment and prophylaxis are the most cost effective strategies in terms of cost per life year saved (LYS for all severity categories. The cost component in the cost per LYS ratio varies depending on pandemic severity: for a severe pandemic (CFR of 2.5% the cost is ∼$9 k per LYS; for a low severity pandemic (CFR of 0.1% this strategy costs ∼$58 k per LYS; for a pandemic with very low severity similar to the 2009 pandemic (CFR of 0.03% the cost is ∼$155 per LYS. With high severity pandemics (CFR >0.75% the most effective attack rate reduction strategies are also the most cost effective. During low severity pandemics costs are dominated by productivity losses due to illness and social distancing interventions, while for high severity pandemics costs are dominated by hospitalisation costs and productivity losses due to death. CONCLUSIONS: The most cost effective strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic involve combining sustained social distancing with the use of antiviral agents. For low severity pandemics the most cost effective strategies involve antiviral treatment, prophylaxis and short durations of school closure; while these are cost effective they are less effective than other strategies in

  16. The Cost Effectiveness of Pandemic Influenza Interventions: A Pandemic Severity Based Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milne, George J.; Halder, Nilimesh; Kelso, Joel K.

    2013-01-01

    Background The impact of a newly emerged influenza pandemic will depend on its transmissibility and severity. Understanding how these pandemic features impact on the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies is important for pandemic planning. Methods A cost effectiveness analysis of a comprehensive range of social distancing and antiviral drug strategies intended to mitigate a future pandemic was conducted using a simulation model of a community of ∼30,000 in Australia. Six pandemic severity categories were defined based on case fatality ratio (CFR), using data from the 2009/2010 pandemic to relate hospitalisation rates to CFR. Results Intervention strategies combining school closure with antiviral treatment and prophylaxis are the most cost effective strategies in terms of cost per life year saved (LYS) for all severity categories. The cost component in the cost per LYS ratio varies depending on pandemic severity: for a severe pandemic (CFR of 2.5%) the cost is ∼$9 k per LYS; for a low severity pandemic (CFR of 0.1%) this strategy costs ∼$58 k per LYS; for a pandemic with very low severity similar to the 2009 pandemic (CFR of 0.03%) the cost is ∼$155 per LYS. With high severity pandemics (CFR >0.75%) the most effective attack rate reduction strategies are also the most cost effective. During low severity pandemics costs are dominated by productivity losses due to illness and social distancing interventions, while for high severity pandemics costs are dominated by hospitalisation costs and productivity losses due to death. Conclusions The most cost effective strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic involve combining sustained social distancing with the use of antiviral agents. For low severity pandemics the most cost effective strategies involve antiviral treatment, prophylaxis and short durations of school closure; while these are cost effective they are less effective than other strategies in reducing the

  17. Influenza Pandemics and Tuberculosis Mortality in 1889 and 1918: Analysis of Historical Data from Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zürcher, Kathrin; Zwahlen, Marcel; Ballif, Marie; Rieder, Hans L; Egger, Matthias; Fenner, Lukas

    2016-01-01

    Tuberculosis (TB) mortality declined in the northern hemisphere over the last 200 years, but peaked during the Russian (1889) and the Spanish (1918) influenza pandemics. We studied the impact of these two pandemics on TB mortality. We retrieved historic data from mortality registers for the city of Bern and countrywide for Switzerland. We used Poisson regression models to quantify the excess pulmonary TB (PTB) mortality attributable to influenza. Yearly PTB mortality rates increased during both influenza pandemics. Monthly influenza and PTB mortality rates peaked during winter and early spring. In Bern, for an increase of 100 influenza deaths (per 100,000 population) monthly PTB mortality rates increased by a factor of 1.5 (95%Cl 1.4-1.6, ppandemic. Nationally, the factor was 2.0 (95%Cl 1.8-2.2, ppandemics. We demonstrate excess PTB mortality during historic influenza pandemics in Switzerland, which supports a role for influenza vaccination in PTB patients in high TB incidence countries.

  18. Gradual changes in the age distribution of excess deaths in the years following the 1918 influenza pandemic in Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saglanmak, Neslihan; Andreasen, Viggo; Simonsen, Lone

    2011-01-01

    implications for pandemic preparedness. In the present paper, we analyse the age patterns of influenza-related excess mortality in the decades before and after the 1918 pandemic, using detailed historic surveillance data from Copenhagen. Methods: Weekly age-specific rates of respiratory mortality and influenza...... in the recrudescent pandemic wave of 1919–1920 may suggest the emergence of an early influenza A/H1N1 drift variant. Subsequent drift events may have been associated with the particularly severe 1928–1929 epidemic in Denmark and elsewhere....

  19. The Benefits and Risks of Pandemic Influenza Vaccines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.G. Wijnans (Leonoor)

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstractIn 2009 and 2010 the world experienced the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century. As the new influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus spread across the world, vaccines were being produced and licensed at an unprecedented scale and speed. In Europe, adjuvanted and non-adjuvanted H1N1pdm09

  20. Severe mortality impact of the 1957 influenza pandemic in Chile

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chowell, Gerardo; Simonsen, Lone; Fuentes, Rodrigo

    2017-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Epidemiological studies of the 1957 influenza pandemic are scarce, particularly from lower income settings. METHODS: We analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1957 influenza pandemic in Chile including detailed age-specific mortality data from a large city...... with high baseline mortality (R2=41.8%; P=0.02), but not with latitude (P>0.7). Excess mortality rates increased sharply with age. Transmissibility declined from R=1.4-2.1 to R=1.2-1.4 between the two pandemic waves. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated A/H2N2 mortality burden in Chile is the highest on record...... for this pandemic - about 3-5 times as severe as that experienced in wealthier nations. The global impact of this pandemic may be substantially underestimated from previous studies based on high-income countries....

  1. Antiviral resistance and the control of pandemic influenza.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc Lipsitch

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The response to the next influenza pandemic will likely include extensive use of antiviral drugs (mainly oseltamivir, combined with other transmission-reducing measures. Animal and in vitro studies suggest that some strains of influenza may become resistant to oseltamivir while maintaining infectiousness (fitness. Use of antiviral agents on the scale anticipated for the control of pandemic influenza will create an unprecedented selective pressure for the emergence and spread of these strains. Nonetheless, antiviral resistance has received little attention when evaluating these plans.We designed and analyzed a deterministic compartmental model of the transmission of oseltamivir-sensitive and -resistant influenza infections during a pandemic. The model predicts that even if antiviral treatment or prophylaxis leads to the emergence of a transmissible resistant strain in as few as 1 in 50,000 treated persons and 1 in 500,000 prophylaxed persons, widespread use of antivirals may strongly promote the spread of resistant strains at the population level, leading to a prevalence of tens of percent by the end of a pandemic. On the other hand, even in circumstances in which a resistant strain spreads widely, the use of antivirals may significantly delay and/or reduce the total size of the pandemic. If resistant strains carry some fitness cost, then, despite widespread emergence of resistance, antivirals could slow pandemic spread by months or more, and buy time for vaccine development; this delay would be prolonged by nondrug control measures (e.g., social distancing that reduce transmission, or use of a stockpiled suboptimal vaccine. Surprisingly, the model suggests that such nondrug control measures would increase the proportion of the epidemic caused by resistant strains.The benefits of antiviral drug use to control an influenza pandemic may be reduced, although not completely offset, by drug resistance in the virus. Therefore, the risk of resistance

  2. The 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowell, G.; Viboud, C.; Simonsen, L.; Miller, M.A.; Hurtado, J.; Soto, G.; Vargas, R.; Guzman, M.A.; Ulloa, M.; Munayco, C.V.

    2011-01-01

    Background Increasing our knowledge of past influenza pandemic patterns in different regions of the world is crucial to guide preparedness plans against future influenza pandemics. Here, we undertook extensive archival collection efforts from 3 representative cities of Peru (Lima in the central coast, Iquitos in the northeastern Amazon region, Ica in the southern coast) to characterize the age and geographic patterns of the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in this country. Materials and Methods We analyzed historical documents describing the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in Peru and retrieved individual mortality records from local provincial archives for quantitative analysis. We applied seasonal excess mortality models to daily and monthly respiratory mortality rates for 1917–1920 and quantified transmissibility estimates based on the daily growth rate in respiratory deaths. Results A total of 52,739 individual mortality records were inspected from local provincial archives. We found evidence for an initial mild pandemic wave during July-September 1918 in Lima, identified a synchronized severe pandemic wave of respiratory mortality in all three locations in Peru during November 1918-February 1919, and a severe pandemic wave during January 1920- March 1920 in Lima and July-October 1920 in Ica. There was no recrudescent pandemic wave in 1920 in Iquitos. Remarkably, Lima experienced the brunt of the 1918–20 excess mortality impact during the 1920 recrudescent wave, with all age groups experiencing an increase in all cause excess mortality from 1918–19 to 1920. Middle age groups experienced the highest excess mortality impact, relative to baseline levels, in the 1918–19 and 1920 pandemic waves. Cumulative excess mortality rates for the 1918–20 pandemic period were higher in Iquitos (2.9%) than Lima (1.6%). The mean reproduction number for Lima was estimated in the range 1.3–1.5. Conclusions We identified synchronized pandemic waves of intense excess

  3. Framing risk in pandemic influenza policy and control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seetoh, Theresa; Liverani, Marco; Coker, Richard

    2012-01-01

    This article explores differing understandings of 'risk' in relation to pandemic influenza policy and control. After a preliminary overview of methodological and practical problems in risk analysis, ways in which risk was framed and managed in three historical cases were examined. The interdependence between scientific empiricism and political decision-making led to the mismanagement of the 1976 swine influenza scare in the USA. The 2004 H5N1 avian influenza outbreak in Thailand, on the other hand, was undermined by questions of national economic interest and concerns over global health security. Finally, the recent global emergency of pandemic influenza H1N1 in 2009 demonstrated the difficulties of risk management under a context of pre-established perceptions about the characteristics and inevitability of a pandemic. Following the analysis of these cases, a conceptual framework is presented to illustrate ways in which changing relationships between risk assessment, risk perception and risk management can result in differing policy strategies.

  4. Avian Influenza Pandemic May Expand the Military Role in Disaster Relief

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sherod, II, Frank W

    2006-01-01

    .... The next national disaster facing the U.S. could be an influenza pandemic. The bird flu virus H5N1 currently threatening Asia and Europe can potentially mutate into a deadly human influenza pandemic with global consequences...

  5. Pandemic vaccination strategies and influenza severe outcomes during the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic and the post-pandemic influenza season

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gil Cuesta, Julita; Aavitsland, Preben; Englund, Hélène

    2016-01-01

    During the 2009/10 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic, the five Nordic countries adopted different approaches to pandemic vaccination. We compared pandemic vaccination strategies and severe influenza outcomes, in seasons 2009/10 and 2010/11 in these countries with similar influenza surveillance...... systems. We calculated the cumulative pandemic vaccination coverage in 2009/10 and cumulative incidence rates of laboratory confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 infections, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and deaths in 2009/10 and 2010/11. We estimated incidence risk ratios (IRR) in a Poisson regression model...... with the other countries. In 2010/11 Denmark had a significantly higher cumulative incidence of A(H1N1)pdm09 ICU admissions (IRR: 2.4; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.9-3.0) and deaths (IRR: 8.3; 95% CI: 5.1-13.5). Compared with Denmark, the other countries had higher pandemic vaccination coverage...

  6. 77 FR 6625 - Meeting the Challenge of Pandemic Influenza: Ethical Guidance for Leaders and Health Care...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-08

    ... DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS Meeting the Challenge of Pandemic Influenza: Ethical Guidance for... guidance document entitled ``Meeting the Challenge of Pandemic Influenza: Ethical Guidance for Leaders and... should indicate that they are submitted in response to ``Meeting the Challenge of Pandemic Influenza...

  7. Pandemic influenza: human rights, ethics and duty to treat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pahlman, I; Tohmo, H; Gylling, H

    2010-01-01

    The 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic seems to be only moderately severe. In the future, a pandemic influenza with high lethality, such as the Spanish influenza in 1918-1919 or even worse, may emerge. In this kind of scenario, lethality rates ranging roughly from 2% to 30% have been proposed. Legal and ethical issues should be discussed before the incident. This article aims to highlight the legal, ethical and professional aspects that might be relevant to anaesthesiologists in the case of a high-lethality infectious disease such as a severe pandemic influenza. The epidemiology, the role of anaesthesiologists and possible threats to the profession and colleagueship within medical specialties relevant to anaesthesiologists are reviewed. During historical plague epidemics, some doctors have behaved like 'deserters'. However, during the Spanish influenza, physicians remained at their jobs, although many perished. In surveys, more than half of the health-care workers have reported their willingness to work in the case of severe pandemics. Physicians have the same human rights as all citizens: they have to be effectively protected against infectious disease. However, they have a duty to treat. Fair and responsible colleagueship among the diverse medical specialties should be promoted. Until disaster threatens humanity, volunteering to work during a pandemic might be the best way to ensure that physicians and other health-care workers stay at their workplace. Broad discussion in society is needed.

  8. Molecular detection and typing of influenza viruses. Are we ready for an influenza pandemic?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    MacKay, W.G.; Loon, A.M. van; Niedrig, M.; Meijer, A.; Lina, B.; Niesters, H.G.M.

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: We cannot predict when an influenza pandemic will occur or which variant of the virus will cause it. Little information is currently available on the ability of laboratories to detect and subtype influenza viruses including the avian influenza viruses. OBJECTIVES: To assess the ability

  9. Pandemic Influenza A (N1H1: what to learn from it?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Rolim Neumann

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Influenza pandemics are natural events that occur periodically. The pandemic’s current agent, Influenza virus A (H1N1 was first identified in Mexico in April 2009, spread rapidly and has caused deaths mainly among young adults. The objective of this manuscript is to present the biological aspects involved in the outbreak of this pandemic, as well as population-control strategies for pandemic influenza. In addition to the population mitigation measures, whose efficacy has been described by theoretical models, today we also have drugs with efficacy valued in some patient groups. These drugs reduce moderately the duration and severity of symptoms, as long as they are started early. This pandemic, with a large number of cases, but caused by a virus of low lethality, could be managed preferably in Units of Primary Health Care, that would treat the wild cases and forward the severe ones to the hospitals. However, what occurred in numerous cities was the burden on emergency care with triage situations, forcing managers to improvise field hospitals, tents and containers to house the extra work in services that were already at the limit of physical infrastructure and human resources. Pandemic Influenza exposed the fragility of our network of primary care and lack of ICU beds.

  10. Department of Defense Implementation Plan for Pandemic Influenza

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-08-01

    and Low Intensity Conflict (ASD(SO/LIC)) will provide policy oversight of the DoD Pandemic Influenza bilateral and multilateral international...flexible worksites (e.g., telecommuting ) and flexible work hours (e.g., staggered shifts) in the event of a pandemic. o Ensure development of active...however, special consideration must be given to “social distancing” in the workplace through 74 telecommuting , or other means, as an

  11. A knowledge representation of local pandemic influenza planning models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, Runa; Brandeau, Margaret L; Das, Amar K

    2007-10-11

    Planning for pandemic flu outbreak at the small-government level can be aided through the use of mathematical policy models. Formulating and analyzing policy models, however, can be a time- and expertise-expensive process. We believe that a knowledge-based system for facilitating the instantiation of locale- and problem-specific policy models can reduce some of these costs. In this work, we present the ontology we have developed for pandemic influenza policy models.

  12. Pandemic influenza communication: views from a deliberative forum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Wendy A; Street, Jackie M; Braunack-Mayer, Annette J; Hiller, Janet E

    2009-09-01

    To use a deliberative forum to elicit community perspectives on communication about pandemic influenza planning, and to compare these findings with the current Australian national communication strategy. Deliberative forum of 12 persons randomly selected from urban South Australia. Forum members were briefed by experts in infection control, virology, ethics and public policy before deliberating on four key questions: what, how and when should the community be told about pandemic influenza and by whom? The forum recommended provision of detailed and comprehensive information by credible experts, rather than politicians, using a variety of media including television and internet. Recommendations included cumulative communication to build expertise in the community, and specific strategies to include groups such as young people, people with physical or mental disabilities, and rural and remote communities. Information provided should be practical, accurate, and timely, with no 'holding back' about the seriousness of a pandemic. The forum expressed confidence in the expert witnesses, despite the acknowledged uncertainty of many of the predictions. The deliberative forum's recommendations were largely consistent with the Australian national pandemic influenza communication strategy and the relevant literature. However, the forum recommended: release of more detailed information than currently proposed in the national strategy; use of non-political spokespersons; and use of novel communication methods. Their acceptance of uncertainty suggests that policy makers should be open about the limits of knowledge in potentially threatening situations. Our findings show that deliberative forums can provide community perspectives on topics such as communication about pandemic influenza.

  13. A neighborhood susceptibility index for planning of local physical interventions in response to pandemic influenza outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timpka, Toomas; Eriksson, Henrik; Strömgren, Magnus; Eriksson, Olle; Ekberg, Joakim; Grimvall, Anders; Nyce, James; Gursky, Elin; Holm, Einar

    2010-01-01

    The global spread of a novel A (H1N1) influenza virus in 2009 has highlighted the possibility of a devastating pandemic similar to the ‘Spanish flu’ of 1917–1918. Responding to such pandemics requires careful planning for the early phases where there is no availability of pandemic vaccine. We set out to compute a Neighborhood Influenza Susceptibility Index (NISI) describing the vulnerability of local communities of different geo-socio-physical structure to a pandemic influenza outbreak. We used a spatially explicit geo-physical model of Linköping municipality (pop. 136,240) in Sweden, and employed an ontology-modeling tool to define simulation models and transmission settings. We found considerable differences in NISI between neighborhoods corresponding to primary care areas with regard to early progress of the outbreak, as well as in terms of the total accumulated share of infected residents counted after the outbreak. The NISI can be used in local preparations of physical response measures during pandemics. PMID:21347087

  14. Assessing the ecotoxicologic hazards of a pandemic influenza medical response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singer, Andrew C; Colizza, Vittoria; Schmitt, Heike; Andrews, Johanna; Balcan, Duygu; Huang, Wei E; Keller, Virginie D J; Vespignani, Alessandro; Williams, Richard J

    2011-08-01

    The global public health community has closely monitored the unfolding of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic to best mitigate its impact on society. However, little attention has been given to the impact of this response on the environment. Antivirals and antibiotics prescribed to treat influenza are excreted into wastewater in a biologically active form, which presents a new and potentially significant ecotoxicologic challenge to microorganisms responsible for wastewater nutrient removal in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) and receiving rivers. We assessed the ecotoxicologic risks of a pandemic influenza medical response. To evaluate this risk, we coupled a global spatially structured epidemic model that simulates the quantities of antivirals and antibiotics used during an influenza pandemic of varying severity and a water quality model applied to the Thames catchment to determine predicted environmental concentrations. An additional model was then used to assess the effects of antibiotics on microorganisms in WWTPs and rivers. Consistent with expectations, our model projected a mild pandemic to exhibit a negligible ecotoxicologic hazard. In a moderate and severe pandemic, we projected WWTP toxicity to vary between 0-14% and 5-32% potentially affected fraction (PAF), respectively, and river toxicity to vary between 0-14% and 0-30% PAF, respectively, where PAF is the fraction of microbial species predicted to be growth inhibited (lower and upper 95% reference range). The current medical response to pandemic influenza might result in the discharge of insufficiently treated wastewater into receiving rivers, thereby increasing the risk of eutrophication and contamination of drinking water abstraction points. Widespread drugs in the environment could hasten the generation of drug resistance. Our results highlight the need for empirical data on the effects of antibiotics and antiviral medications on WWTPs and freshwater ecotoxicity.

  15. Intravenous Immunoglobulin Protects Against Severe Pandemic Influenza Infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven Rockman

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Influenza is a highly contagious, acute, febrile respiratory infection that can have fatal consequences particularly in individuals with chronic illnesses. Sporadic reports suggest that intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIg may be efficacious in the influenza setting. We investigated the potential of human IVIg to ameliorate influenza infection in ferrets exposed to either the pandemic H1N1/09 virus (pH1N1 or highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1. IVIg administered at the time of influenza virus exposure led to a significant reduction in lung viral load following pH1N1 challenge. In the lethal H5N1 model, the majority of animals given IVIg survived challenge in a dose dependent manner. Protection was also afforded by purified F(ab′2 but not Fc fragments derived from IVIg, supporting a specific antibody-mediated mechanism of protection. We conclude that pre-pandemic IVIg can modulate serious influenza infection-associated mortality and morbidity. IVIg could be useful prophylactically in the event of a pandemic to protect vulnerable population groups and in the critical care setting as a first stage intervention.

  16. The age distribution of mortality due to influenza: pandemic and peri-pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Pandemic influenza is said to 'shift mortality' to younger age groups; but also to spare a subpopulation of the elderly population. Does one of these effects dominate? Might this have important ramifications? Methods We estimated age-specific excess mortality rates for all-years for which data were available in the 20th century for Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the UK, and the USA for people older than 44 years of age. We modeled variation with age, and standardized estimates to allow direct comparison across age groups and countries. Attack rate data for four pandemics were assembled. Results For nearly all seasons, an exponential model characterized mortality data extremely well. For seasons of emergence and a variable number of seasons following, however, a subpopulation above a threshold age invariably enjoyed reduced mortality. 'Immune escape', a stepwise increase in mortality among the oldest elderly, was observed a number of seasons after both the A(H2N2) and A(H3N2) pandemics. The number of seasons from emergence to escape varied by country. For the latter pandemic, mortality rates in four countries increased for younger age groups but only in the season following that of emergence. Adaptation to both emergent viruses was apparent as a progressive decrease in mortality rates, which, with two exceptions, was seen only in younger age groups. Pandemic attack rate variation with age was estimated to be similar across four pandemics with very different mortality impact. Conclusions In all influenza pandemics of the 20th century, emergent viruses resembled those that had circulated previously within the lifespan of then-living people. Such individuals were relatively immune to the emergent strain, but this immunity waned with mutation of the emergent virus. An immune subpopulation complicates and may invalidate vaccine trials. Pandemic influenza does not 'shift' mortality to younger age groups; rather, the mortality level is reset by the virulence

  17. Community Assessment Tool for Public Health Emergencies Including Pandemic Influenza

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    HCTT-CHE

    2011-04-14

    The Community Assessment Tool (CAT) for Public Health Emergencies Including Pandemic Influenza (hereafter referred to as the CAT) was developed as a result of feedback received from several communities. These communities participated in workshops focused on influenza pandemic planning and response. The 2008 through 2011 workshops were sponsored by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Feedback during those workshops indicated the need for a tool that a community can use to assess its readiness for a disaster—readiness from a total healthcare perspective, not just hospitals, but the whole healthcare system. The CAT intends to do just that—help strengthen existing preparedness plans by allowing the healthcare system and other agencies to work together during an influenza pandemic. It helps reveal each core agency partners' (sectors) capabilities and resources, and highlights cases of the same vendors being used for resource supplies (e.g., personal protective equipment [PPE] and oxygen) by the partners (e.g., public health departments, clinics, or hospitals). The CAT also addresses gaps in the community's capabilities or potential shortages in resources. While the purpose of the CAT is to further prepare the community for an influenza pandemic, its framework is an extension of the traditional all-hazards approach to planning and preparedness. As such, the information gathered by the tool is useful in preparation for most widespread public health emergencies. This tool is primarily intended for use by those involved in healthcare emergency preparedness (e.g., community planners, community disaster preparedness coordinators, 9-1-1 directors, hospital emergency preparedness coordinators). It is divided into sections based on the core agency partners, which may be involved in the community's influenza pandemic influenza response.

  18. Novel pandemic influenza A(H1N1 viruses are potently inhibited by DAS181, a sialidase fusion protein.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gallen B Triana-Baltzer

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The recent emergence of a novel pandemic influenza A(H1N1 strain in humans exemplifies the rapid and unpredictable nature of influenza virus evolution and the need for effective therapeutics and vaccines to control such outbreaks. However, resistance to antivirals can be a formidable problem as evidenced by the currently widespread oseltamivir- and adamantane-resistant seasonal influenza A viruses (IFV. Additional antiviral approaches with novel mechanisms of action are needed to combat novel and resistant influenza strains. DAS181 (Fludase is a sialidase fusion protein in early clinical development with in vitro and in vivo preclinical activity against a variety of seasonal influenza strains and highly pathogenic avian influenza strains (A/H5N1. Here, we use in vitro, ex vivo, and in vivo models to evaluate the activity of DAS181 against several pandemic influenza A(H1N1 viruses.The activity of DAS181 against several pandemic influenza A(H1N1 virus isolates was examined in MDCK cells, differentiated primary human respiratory tract culture, ex-vivo human bronchi tissue and mice. DAS181 efficiently inhibited viral replication in each of these models and against all tested pandemic influenza A(H1N1 strains. DAS181 treatment also protected mice from pandemic influenza A(H1N1-induced pathogenesis. Furthermore, DAS181 antiviral activity against pandemic influenza A(H1N1 strains was comparable to that observed against seasonal influenza virus including the H274Y oseltamivir-resistant influenza virus.The sialidase fusion protein DAS181 exhibits potent inhibitory activity against pandemic influenza A(H1N1 viruses. As inhibition was also observed with oseltamivir-resistant IFV (H274Y, DAS181 may be active against the antigenically novel pandemic influenza A(H1N1 virus should it acquire the H274Y mutation. Based on these and previous results demonstrating DAS181 broad-spectrum anti-IFV activity, DAS181 represents a potential therapeutic agent for

  19. Finding optimal vaccination strategies for pandemic influenza using genetic algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Rajan; Longini, Ira M; Halloran, M Elizabeth

    2005-05-21

    In the event of pandemic influenza, only limited supplies of vaccine may be available. We use stochastic epidemic simulations, genetic algorithms (GA), and random mutation hill climbing (RMHC) to find optimal vaccine distributions to minimize the number of illnesses or deaths in the population, given limited quantities of vaccine. Due to the non-linearity, complexity and stochasticity of the epidemic process, it is not possible to solve for optimal vaccine distributions mathematically. However, we use GA and RMHC to find near optimal vaccine distributions. We model an influenza pandemic that has age-specific illness attack rates similar to the Asian pandemic in 1957-1958 caused by influenza A(H2N2), as well as a distribution similar to the Hong Kong pandemic in 1968-1969 caused by influenza A(H3N2). We find the optimal vaccine distributions given that the number of doses is limited over the range of 10-90% of the population. While GA and RMHC work well in finding optimal vaccine distributions, GA is significantly more efficient than RMHC. We show that the optimal vaccine distribution found by GA and RMHC is up to 84% more effective than random mass vaccination in the mid range of vaccine availability. GA is generalizable to the optimization of stochastic model parameters for other infectious diseases and population structures.

  20. Avian influenza A viruses: From zoonosis to pandemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Richard (Mathilde); M.T. de Graaf (Marieke); S. Herfst (Sander)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractZoonotic influenza A viruses originating from the animal reservoir pose a threat for humans, as they have the ability to trigger pandemics upon adaptation to and invasion of an immunologically naive population. Of particular concern are the H5N1 viruses that continue to circulate in

  1. A duplex real-time RT-PCR assay for detecting H5N1 avian influenza virus and pandemic H1N1 influenza virus

    OpenAIRE

    Kang, Xiao-ping; Jiang, Tao; Li, Yong-qiang; Lin, Fang; Liu, Hong; Chang, Guo-hui; Zhu, Qing-yu; Qin, E-de; Qin, Cheng-feng; Yang, Yin-hui

    2010-01-01

    Abstract A duplex real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay was improved for simultaneous detection of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus and pandemic H1N1 (2009) influenza virus, which is suitable for early diagnosis of influenza-like patients and for epidemiological surveillance. The sensitivity of this duplex real-time RT-PCR assay was 0.02 TCID50 (50% tissue culture infective dose) for H5N1 and 0.2 TCID50 for the pandemic H1N1, which was the same a...

  2. Hospital capacity and management preparedness for pandemic influenza in Victoria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewar, Ben; Barr, Ian; Robinson, Priscilla

    2014-04-01

    This study was designed to investigate acute hospital pandemic influenza preparedness in Victoria, Australia, particularly focussing on planning and management efforts. A prospective study was conducted by questionnaire and semi-structured interview of health managers across the Victorian hospital system from July to October 2011. Participants with responsibility for emergency management, planning and operations were selected from every hospital in Victoria with an emergency department to complete a questionnaire (response rate 22/43 = 51%). Each respondent was invited to participate in a phone-based semi-structured interview (response rate 11/22 = 50%). Rural/regional hospitals demonstrated higher levels of clinical (86%) and non-clinical (86%) staff contingency planning than metropolitan hospitals (60% and 40% respectively). Pandemic plans were not being sufficiently tested in exercises or drills, which is likely to undermine their effectiveness. All respondents reported hand hygiene and standard precautions programs in place, although only one-third (33%) of metropolitan respondents and no rural/regional respondents reported being able to meet patient needs with high levels of staff absenteeism. Almost half Victoria's healthcare workers were unvaccinated against influenza. Hospitals across Victoria demonstrated different levels of influenza pandemic preparedness and planning. If a more severe influenza pandemic than that of 2009 arose, Victorian hospitals would struggle with workforce and infrastructure problems, particularly in rural/regional areas. Staff absenteeism threatens to undermine hospital pandemic responses. Various strategies, including education and communication, should be included with in-service training to provide staff with confidence in their ability to work safely during a future pandemic. © 2014 The Authors. ANZJPH © 2014 Public Health Association of Australia.

  3. Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza A: balancing conflicting policy objectives.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T Déirdre Hollingsworth

    Full Text Available Mitigation of a severe influenza pandemic can be achieved using a range of interventions to reduce transmission. Interventions can reduce the impact of an outbreak and buy time until vaccines are developed, but they may have high social and economic costs. The non-linear effect on the epidemic dynamics means that suitable strategies crucially depend on the precise aim of the intervention. National pandemic influenza plans rarely contain clear statements of policy objectives or prioritization of potentially conflicting aims, such as minimizing mortality (depending on the severity of a pandemic or peak prevalence or limiting the socio-economic burden of contact-reducing interventions. We use epidemiological models of influenza A to investigate how contact-reducing interventions and availability of antiviral drugs or pre-pandemic vaccines contribute to achieving particular policy objectives. Our analyses show that the ideal strategy depends on the aim of an intervention and that the achievement of one policy objective may preclude success with others, e.g., constraining peak demand for public health resources may lengthen the duration of the epidemic and hence its economic and social impact. Constraining total case numbers can be achieved by a range of strategies, whereas strategies which additionally constrain peak demand for services require a more sophisticated intervention. If, for example, there are multiple objectives which must be achieved prior to the availability of a pandemic vaccine (i.e., a time-limited intervention, our analysis shows that interventions should be implemented several weeks into the epidemic, not at the very start. This observation is shown to be robust across a range of constraints and for uncertainty in estimates of both R(0 and the timing of vaccine availability. These analyses highlight the need for more precise statements of policy objectives and their assumed consequences when planning and implementing strategies

  4. Understanding estimated worker absenteeism rates during an influenza pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thanner, Meridith H; Links, Jonathan M; Meltzer, Martin I; Scheulen, James J; Kelen, Gabor D

    2011-01-01

    Published employee absenteeism estimates during an influenza pandemic range from 10 to 40 percent. The purpose of this study was to estimate daily employee absenteeism through the duration of an influenza pandemic and to determine the relative impact of key variables used to derive the estimates. Using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's FluWorkLoss program, the authors estimated the number of absent employees on any given day over the course of a simulated 8-week pandemic wave by using varying attack rates. Employee data from a university with a large academic health system were used. Sensitivity of the program outputs to variation in predictor (inputs) values was assessed. Finally, the authors examined and documented the algorithmic sequence of the program. Using a 35 percent attack rate, a total of 47,270 workdays (or 3.4 percent of all available workdays) would be lost over the course of an 8-week pandemic among a population of 35,026 employees. The highest (peak) daily absenteeism estimate was 5.8 percent (minimum 4.8 percent; maximum 7.4 percent). Sensitivity analysis revealed that varying days missed for nonhospitalized illness had the greatest potential effect on peak absence rate (3.1 to 17.2 percent). Peak absence with 15 and 25 percent attack rates were 2.5 percent and 4.2 percent, respectively. The impact of an influenza pandemic on employee availability may be less than originally thought, even with a high attack rate. These data are generalizable and are not specific to institutions of higher education or medical centers. Thus, these findings provide realistic and useful estimates for influenza pandemic planning for most organizations.

  5. Optimal Allocation of Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Depends on Age, Risk and Timing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mylius, S.D.; Hagenaars, T.H.J.; Lugner, A.K.; Wallinga, J.

    2008-01-01

    The limited production capacity for vaccines raises the question what the best strategy is for allocating the vaccine to mitigate an influenza pandemic. We developed an age-structured model for spread of an influenza pandemic and validated it against observations from the Asian flu pandemic. Two

  6. The ghost of pandemics past: revisiting two centuries of influenza in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmberg, Martin

    2017-09-01

    Previous influenza pandemics are usually invoked in pandemic preparedness planning without a thorough analysis of the events surrounding them, what has been called the 'configuration' of epidemics. Historic pandemics are instead used to contrast them to the novelty of the coming imagined plague or as fear of a ghost-like repetition of the past. This view of pandemics is guided by a biomedical framework that is ahistorical and reductionist. The meaning of 'pandemic' influenza is in fact highly ambiguous in its partitioning of pandemic and seasonal influenza. The past 200 years of influenza epidemics in Sweden are examined with a special focus on key social structures-households, schools, transportations and the military. These are shown to have influenced the progression of influenza pandemics. Prevailing beliefs around influenza pandemics have also profoundly influenced intervention strategies. Measuring long-term trends in pandemic severity is problematic because pandemics are non-linear events where the conditions surrounding them constantly change. However, in a linearised view, the Spanish flu can be seen to represent a historical turning point and the H1N1 2009 pandemic not as an outlier, but following a 100-year trend of decreasing severity. Integrating seasonal and pandemic influenza, and adopting an ecosocial stance can deepen our understanding and bring the ghost-like pandemic past to life. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  7. [Paleopathology and the history of medicine: the example of influenza pandemics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fangerau, H

    2010-11-01

    The paper examines the history of former influenza pandemics from the perspective of changing nosographic categories. Special emphasis is put on the so-called Spanish flu of 1918. Due to its high mortality rates this pandemic is often highlighted as a warning sign for what may happen during a future pandemic. After a short introduction into the problematic status of the validity of retrospective diagnoses the history of influenza pandemics is discussed. The pandemic of 1918 is analysed from the perspective of the public health system being connected to and relying on medical and scientific debates. The reasons for this pandemic's rank as the long forgotten pandemic are discussed.

  8. The use of nonhuman primates in research on seasonal, pandemic and avian influenza, 1893-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, A Sally; Taubenberger, Jeffery K; Bray, Mike

    2015-05-01

    Attempts to reproduce the features of human influenza in laboratory animals date from the early 1890s, when Richard Pfeiffer inoculated apes with bacteria recovered from influenza patients and produced a mild respiratory illness. Numerous studies employing nonhuman primates (NHPs) were performed during the 1918 pandemic and the following decade. Most used bacterial preparations to infect animals, but some sought a filterable agent for the disease. Since the viral etiology of influenza was established in the early 1930s, studies in NHPs have been supplemented by a much larger number of experiments in mice, ferrets and human volunteers. However, the emergence of a novel swine-origin H1N1 influenza virus in 1976 and the highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus in 1997 stimulated an increase in NHP research, because these agents are difficult to study in naturally infected patients and cannot be administered to human volunteers. In this paper, we review the published literature on the use of NHPs in influenza research from 1893 through the end of 2014. The first section summarizes observational studies of naturally occurring influenza-like syndromes in wild and captive primates, including serologic investigations. The second provides a chronological account of experimental infections of NHPs, beginning with Pfeiffer's study and covering all published research on seasonal and pandemic influenza viruses, including vaccine and antiviral drug testing. The third section reviews experimental infections of NHPs with avian influenza viruses that have caused disease in humans since 1997. The paper concludes with suggestions for further studies to more clearly define and optimize the role of NHPs as experimental animals for influenza research. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  9. The use of nonhuman primates in research on seasonal, pandemic and avian influenza, 1893–2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, A. Sally; Taubenberger, Jeffery K.; Bray, Mike

    2015-01-01

    Attempts to reproduce the features of human influenza in laboratory animals date from the early 1890s, when Richard Pfeiffer inoculated apes with bacteria recovered from influenza patients and produced a mild respiratory illness. Numerous studies employing nonhuman primates (NHPs) were performed during the 1918 pandemic and the following decade. Most used bacterial preparations to infect animals, but some sought a filterable agent for the disease. Since the viral etiology of influenza was established in the early 1930s, studies in NHPs have been supplemented by a much larger number of experiments in mice, ferrets and human volunteers. However, the emergence of a novel swine-origin H1N1 influenza virus in 1976 and the highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus in 1997 stimulated an increase in NHP research, because these agents are difficult to study in naturally infected patients and cannot be administered to human volunteers. In this paper, we review the published literature on the use of NHPs in influenza research from 1893 through the end of 2014. The first section summarizes observational studies of naturally occurring influenza-like syndromes in wild and captive primates, including serologic investigations. The second provides a chronological account of experimental infections of NHPs, beginning with Pfeiffer’s study and covering all published research on seasonal and pandemic influenza viruses, including vaccine and antiviral drug testing. The third section reviews experimental infections of NHPs with avian influenza viruses that have caused disease in humans since 1997. The paper concludes with suggestions for further studies to more clearly define and optimize the role of NHPs as experimental animals for influenza research. PMID:25746173

  10. Pandemic controllability: a concept to guide a proportionate and flexible operational response to future influenza pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaw, J M; Glass, K; Mercer, G N; McVernon, J

    2014-03-01

    The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic posed challenges for governments worldwide. Strategies designed to limit community transmission, such as antiviral deployment, were largely ineffective due to both feasibility constraints and the generally mild nature of disease, resulting in incomplete case ascertainment. Reviews of national pandemic plans have identified pandemic impact, primarily linked to measures of transmissibility and severity, as a key concept to incorporate into the next generation of plans. While an assessment of impact provides the rationale under which interventions may be warranted, it does not directly provide an assessment on whether particular interventions may be effective. Such considerations motivate our introduction of the concept of pandemic controllability. For case-targeted interventions, such as antiviral treatment and post-exposure prophylaxis, we identify the visibility and transmissibility of a pandemic as the key drivers of controllability. Taking a case-study approach, we suggest that high-impact pandemics, for which control is most desirable, are likely uncontrollable with case-targeted interventions. Strategies that do not rely on the identification of cases may prove relatively more effective. By introducing a pragmatic framework for relating the assessment of impact to the ability to mitigate an epidemic (controllability), we hope to address a present omission identified in pandemic response plans.

  11. Efficacy of a pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus vaccine in pigs against the pandemic influenza virus is superior to commercially available swine influenza vaccines.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loeffen, W.L.A.; Stockhofe-Zurwieden, N.; Weesendorp, E.; Zoelen-Bos, van D.J.; Heutink, R.; Quak, J.; Goovaerts, D.; Heldens, J.; Maas, H.A.; Moormann, R.J.M.; Koch, G.

    2011-01-01

    In April 2009 a new influenza A/H1N1 strain, currently named “pandemic (H1N1) influenza 2009¿ (H1N1v), started the first official pandemic in humans since 1968. Several incursions of this virus in pig herds have also been reported from all over the world. Vaccination of pigs may be an option to

  12. The 2009-2010 influenza pandemic: effects on pandemic and seasonal vaccine uptake and lessons learned for seasonal vaccination campaigns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poland, Gregory A

    2010-09-07

    Individual and national/cultural differences were apparent in response to the 2009-2010 influenza pandemic. Overall pandemic influenza immunization rates were low across all nations, including among healthcare workers. Among the reasons for the low coverage rates may have been a lack of concern about the individual risk of influenza, which may translate into a lack of willingness or urgency to be vaccinated, particularly if there is mistrust of information provided by public health or governmental authorities. Intuitively, a link between willingness to be vaccinated against seasonal influenza and against pandemic influenza exists, given the similarities in decision-making for this infection. As such, the public is likely to share common concerns regarding pandemic and seasonal influenza vaccination, particularly in the areas of vaccine safety and side effects, and personal risk. Given the public's perception of the low level of virulence of the recent pandemic influenza virus, there is concern that the perception of a lack of personal risk of infection and risk of vaccine side effects could adversely affect seasonal vaccine uptake. While governments are more often concerned about public anxiety and panic, as well as absenteeism of healthcare and other essential workers during a pandemic, convincing the public of the threat posed by pandemic or seasonal influenza is often the more difficult, and underappreciated task. Thus, appropriate, timely, and data-driven health information are very important issues in increasing influenza vaccine coverage, perhaps even more so in western societies where trust in government and public health reports may be lower than in other countries. This article explores what has been learned about cross-cultural responses to pandemic influenza, and seeks to apply those lessons to seasonal influenza immunization programs. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Characterizing the epidemiology of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in Mexico.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerardo Chowell

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Mexico's local and national authorities initiated an intense public health response during the early stages of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. In this study we analyzed the epidemiological patterns of the pandemic during April-December 2009 in Mexico and evaluated the impact of nonmedical interventions, school cycles, and demographic factors on influenza transmission. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used influenza surveillance data compiled by the Mexican Institute for Social Security, representing 40% of the population, to study patterns in influenza-like illness (ILIs hospitalizations, deaths, and case-fatality rate by pandemic wave and geographical region. We also estimated the reproduction number (R on the basis of the growth rate of daily cases, and used a transmission model to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies initiated during the spring pandemic wave. A total of 117,626 ILI cases were identified during April-December 2009, of which 30.6% were tested for influenza, and 23.3% were positive for the influenza A/H1N1 pandemic virus. A three-wave pandemic profile was identified, with an initial wave in April-May (Mexico City area, a second wave in June-July (southeastern states, and a geographically widespread third wave in August-December. The median age of laboratory confirmed ILI cases was ∼ 18 years overall and increased to ∼ 31 years during autumn (p<0.0001. The case-fatality ratio among ILI cases was 1.2% overall, and highest (5.5% among people over 60 years. The regional R estimates were 1.8-2.1, 1.6-1.9, and 1.2-1.3 for the spring, summer, and fall waves, respectively. We estimate that the 18-day period of mandatory school closures and other social distancing measures implemented in the greater Mexico City area was associated with a 29%-37% reduction in influenza transmission in spring 2009. In addition, an increase in R was observed in late May and early June in the southeast states, after mandatory school

  14. Nonpharmaceutical Interventions for Military Populations During Pandemic Influenza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selim Kilic

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Influenza causes substantial illness and loss of work days among young adults, and outbreaks can affect the preparedness of military units. In an influenza pandemic, people who live in confined settings have greater risk of infection. Military trainees are at particularly high risk. Because of likely unavailability of vaccines and antiviral drugs at the start of a pandemic and for many months thereafter, nonpharmaceutical interventions may be very important. During a pandemic, it seems prudent that military public health officials employ at least several nonpharmaceutical interventions. For example frequent handwashing and respiratory hygiene/cough etiquette should be strongly encouraged among soldiers. Head-to-toe sleeping, a “no-cost” intervention should be for crowded berthing areas. Isolation of patients with influenza and quarantine of their close contacts should be employed. Masks and alcohol-based hand rubs may be employed among those at highest risk. Finally, whenever possible military planners should, reduce crowding and limit the interaction of training cohorts to reduce risk of influenza virus transmission. [TAF Prev Med Bull. 2007; 6(4: 285-290

  15. Spatial and temporal characteristics of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Munayco, Cesar V; Gómez, Jorge; Simonsen, Lone; Miller, Mark A; Tamerius, James; Fiestas, Victor; Halsey, Eric S; Laguna-Torres, Victor A

    2011-01-01

    Highly refined surveillance data on the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic are crucial to quantify the spatial and temporal characteristics of the pandemic. There is little information about the spatial-temporal dynamics of pandemic influenza in South America. Here we provide a quantitative description of the age-specific morbidity pandemic patterns across administrative areas of Peru. We used daily cases of influenza-like-illness, tests for A/H1N1 influenza virus infections, and laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 influenza cases reported to the epidemiological surveillance system of Peru's Ministry of Health from May 1 to December 31, 2009. We analyzed the geographic spread of the pandemic waves and their association with the winter school vacation period, demographic factors, and absolute humidity. We also estimated the reproduction number and quantified the association between the winter school vacation period and the age distribution of cases. The national pandemic curve revealed a bimodal winter pandemic wave, with the first peak limited to school age children in the Lima metropolitan area, and the second peak more geographically widespread. The reproduction number was estimated at 1.6-2.2 for the Lima metropolitan area and 1.3-1.5 in the rest of Peru. We found a significant association between the timing of the school vacation period and changes in the age distribution of cases, while earlier pandemic onset was correlated with large population size. By contrast there was no association between pandemic dynamics and absolute humidity. Our results indicate substantial spatial variation in pandemic patterns across Peru, with two pandemic waves of varying timing and impact by age and region. Moreover, the Peru data suggest a hierarchical transmission pattern of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 driven by large population centers. The higher reproduction number of the first pandemic wave could be explained by high contact rates among school-age children, the age group most affected

  16. Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of the 2009 A/H1N1 Influenza Pandemic in Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Munayco, Cesar V.; Gómez, Jorge; Simonsen, Lone; Miller, Mark A.; Tamerius, James; Fiestas, Victor; Halsey, Eric S.; Laguna-Torres, Victor A.

    2011-01-01

    Background Highly refined surveillance data on the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic are crucial to quantify the spatial and temporal characteristics of the pandemic. There is little information about the spatial-temporal dynamics of pandemic influenza in South America. Here we provide a quantitative description of the age-specific morbidity pandemic patterns across administrative areas of Peru. Methods We used daily cases of influenza-like-illness, tests for A/H1N1 influenza virus infections, and laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 influenza cases reported to the epidemiological surveillance system of Peru's Ministry of Health from May 1 to December 31, 2009. We analyzed the geographic spread of the pandemic waves and their association with the winter school vacation period, demographic factors, and absolute humidity. We also estimated the reproduction number and quantified the association between the winter school vacation period and the age distribution of cases. Results The national pandemic curve revealed a bimodal winter pandemic wave, with the first peak limited to school age children in the Lima metropolitan area, and the second peak more geographically widespread. The reproduction number was estimated at 1.6–2.2 for the Lima metropolitan area and 1.3–1.5 in the rest of Peru. We found a significant association between the timing of the school vacation period and changes in the age distribution of cases, while earlier pandemic onset was correlated with large population size. By contrast there was no association between pandemic dynamics and absolute humidity. Conclusions Our results indicate substantial spatial variation in pandemic patterns across Peru, with two pandemic waves of varying timing and impact by age and region. Moreover, the Peru data suggest a hierarchical transmission pattern of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 driven by large population centers. The higher reproduction number of the first pandemic wave could be explained by high contact rates among school

  17. Outbreak of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 in Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adhikari, Bal Ram; Shakya, Geeta; Upadhyay, Bishnu Prasad; Prakash Kc, Khagendra; Shrestha, Sirjana Devi; Dhungana, Guna Raj

    2011-03-23

    The 2009 flu pandemic is a global outbreak of a new strain of H1N1 influenza virus. Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 has posed a serious public health challenge world-wide. Nepal has started Laboratory diagnosis of Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 from mid June 2009 though active screening of febrile travellers with respiratory symptoms was started from April 27, 2009. Out of 609 collected samples, 302 (49.6%) were Universal Influenza A positive. Among the influenza A positive samples, 172(28.3%) were positive for Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 and 130 (21.3%) were Seasonal influenza A. Most of the pandemic cases (53%) were found among young people with ≤ 20 years. Case Fatality Ratio for Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 in Nepal was 1.74%. Upon Molecular characterization, all the isolated pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 virus found in Nepal were antigenically and genetically related to the novel influenza A/CALIFORNIA/07/2009-LIKE (H1N1)v type. The Pandemic 2009 influenza virus found in Nepal were antigenically and genetically related to the novel A/CALIFORNIA/07/2009-LIKE (H1N1)v type.

  18. Outbreak of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 in Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shrestha Sirjana

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The 2009 flu pandemic is a global outbreak of a new strain of H1N1 influenza virus. Pandemic influenza A (H1N1 2009 has posed a serious public health challenge world-wide. Nepal has started Laboratory diagnosis of Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 from mid June 2009 though active screening of febrile travellers with respiratory symptoms was started from April 27, 2009. Results Out of 609 collected samples, 302 (49.6% were Universal Influenza A positive. Among the influenza A positive samples, 172(28.3% were positive for Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 and 130 (21.3% were Seasonal influenza A. Most of the pandemic cases (53% were found among young people with ≤ 20 years. Case Fatality Ratio for Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 in Nepal was 1.74%. Upon Molecular characterization, all the isolated pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 virus found in Nepal were antigenically and genetically related to the novel influenza A/CALIFORNIA/07/2009-LIKE (H1N1v type. Conclusion The Pandemic 2009 influenza virus found in Nepal were antigenically and genetically related to the novel A/CALIFORNIA/07/2009-LIKE (H1N1v type.

  19. Pandemic Influenza: Perception of Medical Students Medical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... vaccination against H1N1and 31.9% refused joining voluntary work during H1N1 pandemic. Gender, age, marital status and family number were predictors r voluntary work. Conclusion: Defective knowledge and the role of the family are the main factors predispose to further attitude of medical students regarding voluntary ...

  20. Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Among Child Care Center Directors in 2008 and 2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shope, Timothy R; Walker, Benjamin H; Aird, Laura D; Southward, Linda; McCown, John S; Martin, Judith M

    2017-06-01

    Children in child care centers represent an important population to consider in attempts to mitigate the spread of an influenza pandemic. This national survey, conducted in 2008 and 2016, assessed directors' reports of their child care centers' pandemic influenza preparation before and after the 2009 H1N1 novel influenza pandemic. This was a telephone-based survey of child care center directors randomly selected from a national database of licensed US child care centers who were queried about their preparedness for pandemic influenza. We grouped conceptually related items in 6 domains into indexes: general infection control, communication, seasonal influenza control, use of health consultants, quality of child care, and perceived barriers. These indexes, along with other center and director characteristics, were used to predict pandemic influenza preparedness. Among 1500 and 518 child care center directors surveyed in 2008 and 2016, respectively, preparation for pandemic influenza was low and did not improve. Only 7% of directors had taken concrete actions to prepare their centers. Having served as a center director during the 2009 influenza pandemic did not influence preparedness. After adjusting for covariates, child care health consultation and years of director's experience were positively associated with pandemic influenza preparation, whereas experiencing perceived barriers such as lack of knowing what to do in the event of pandemic influenza, was negatively associated with pandemic influenza preparedness. Pandemic influenza preparedness of child care center's directors needs to improve. Child care health consultants are likely to be important collaborators in addressing this problem. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  1. Community Assessment Tool for Public Health Emergencies Including Pandemic Influenza

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    ORAU' s Oak Ridge Institute for Science Education (HCTT-CHE)

    2011-04-14

    The Community Assessment Tool (CAT) for Public Health Emergencies Including Pandemic Influenza (hereafter referred to as the CAT) was developed as a result of feedback received from several communities. These communities participated in workshops focused on influenza pandemic planning and response. The 2008 through 2011 workshops were sponsored by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Feedback during those workshops indicated the need for a tool that a community can use to assess its readiness for a disaster - readiness from a total healthcare perspective, not just hospitals, but the whole healthcare system. The CAT intends to do just that - help strengthen existing preparedness plans by allowing the healthcare system and other agencies to work together during an influenza pandemic. It helps reveal each core agency partners (sectors) capabilities and resources, and highlights cases of the same vendors being used for resource supplies (e.g., personal protective equipment [PPE] and oxygen) by the partners (e.g., public health departments, clinics, or hospitals). The CAT also addresses gaps in the community's capabilities or potential shortages in resources. This tool has been reviewed by a variety of key subject matter experts from federal, state, and local agencies and organizations. It also has been piloted with various communities that consist of different population sizes, to include large urban to small rural communities.

  2. Pediatric Healthcare Response to Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza Stakeholder Meeting - Summary of Proceedings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    HCTT CHE

    2010-01-01

    The goal of the meeting was to bring together subject matter experts to develop tools and resources for use by the pediatric healthcare community in response to 2009 (H1N1) pandemic influenza activity during the 2009 influenza season.

  3. Pandemic influenza – including a risk assessment of H5N1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taubenberger, J.K.; Morens, D.M.

    2009-01-01

    Summary Influenza pandemics and epidemics have apparently occurred since at least the Middle Ages. When pandemics appear, 50% or more of an affected population can be infected in a single year, and the number of deaths caused by influenza can dramatically exceed what is normally expected. Since 1500, there appear to have been 13 or more influenza pandemics. In the past 120 years there were undoubted pandemics in 1889, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. Although most experts believe we will face another influenza pandemic, it is impossible to predict when it will appear, where it will originate, or how severe it will be. Nor is there agreement about the subtype of influenza virus most likely to cause the next pandemic. The continuing spread of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses has heightened interest in pandemic prediction. Despite uncertainties in the historical record of the pre-virology era, study of previous pandemics may help guide future pandemic planning and lead to a better understanding of the complex ecobiology underlying the formation of pandemic strains of influenza A viruses. PMID:19618626

  4. Pandemic influenza--including a risk assessment of H5N1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taubenberger, J K; Morens, D M

    2009-04-01

    Influenza pandemics and epidemics have apparently occurred since at least the Middle Ages. When pandemics appear, 50% or more of an affected population can be infected in a single year, and the number of deaths caused by influenza can dramatically exceed what is normally expected. Since 1500, there appear to have been 13 or more influenza pandemics. In the past 120 years there were undoubted pandemics in 1889, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. Although most experts believe we will face another influenza pandemic, it is impossible to predict when it will appear, where it will originate, or how severe it will be. Nor is there agreement about the subtype of influenza virus most likely to cause the next pandemic. The continuing spread of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses has heightened interest in pandemic prediction. Despite uncertainties in the historical record of the pre-virology era, study of previous pandemics may help guide future pandemic planning and lead to a better understanding of the complex ecobiology underlying the formation of pandemic strains of influenza A viruses.

  5. Burden of hospitalizations for pandemic influenza in Slovenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sočan, Maja

    2011-01-01

    Aim To analyze the 2009/2010 epidemiological data of patients hospitalized for confirmed pandemic influenza in Slovenia. Methods We conducted a retrospective analysis of health statistical data collected in an electronic data set Diagnosis-related Group system. Data on age, sex, primary and secondary diagnoses, duration of hospital stay, admission to the intensive care unit, disease outcome, and the week of the admission to the hospital were extracted for patients diagnosed with confirmed influenza virus infection. Results A total of 748 (hospitalization rate 37.4/100,000) patients diagnosed with confirmed influenza virus infection were admitted to 19 public hospitals and 7 private acute care providers during the period from September 28, 2009 to April 11, 2010. The highest admission rate was recorded for mid-November 2009. Out of 748 hospitalized patients, 411 (55%) were children younger than 15 years. Influenza was coded as the primary diagnosis in 536 patients. In 35% of the patients, influenza caused viral pneumonia. Fewer than one third of patients (28%) had a pre-existing chronic disease and/or condition predisposing them to complicated or adverse outcomes of influenza, most frequently chronic lung diseases, mainly asthma. A median hospital stay was 2 days for children and 5 days for adult patients. Longer hospitalization was required in patients who had a secondary diagnosis of influenza. Older male individuals suffering from pneumonia and chronic diseases were overrepresented among cases admitted to the intensive care units. Conclusions The epidemiological data extracted from the Diagnosis-related Group system in Slovenia were comparable with the data on pandemic patients published elsewhere. PMID:21495197

  6. Initial Identification and Characterization of an Emerging Zoonotic Influenza Prior to Pandemic Spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-01

    equally closely strains of both H1N2 influenza A virus of swine origin and H3N2 influenza A virus of avian origin. The expected matches for each of...Naval Health Research Center Initial Identification and Characterization of an Emerging Zoonotic Influenza Virus Prior to Pandemic Spread...10.1128/JCM.01336-10 PMCID: PMC3020883 Initial Identification and Characterization of an Emerging Zoonotic Influenza Virus Prior to Pandemic

  7. [Epidemiologic and economic effectiveness of school closure during influenza epidemics and pandemics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gendon, Iu Z; Vasil'ev, Iu M

    2012-01-01

    Epidemiologic and economic effectiveness of school closure during influenza epidemics and pandemics is discussed. Optimal effect of school closure is observed when this measure is taken at the start of the epidemic or pandemic and for a sufficiently long time. School closure during high morbidity among schoolchildren, in the middle (at the peak) and by the end of epidemic or pandemic does not influence significantly the spread of influenza or morbidity. Significant economic losses and other negative consequences of school closure are noted. School closure may be the most appropriate during the emergence of influenza pandemic when the pandemic vaccine is not yet available, however timely mass immunization of schoolchildren against influenza may be a more appropriate measure than school closure for the reduction of influenza morbidity and spread during seasonal influenza epidemics.

  8. The ENSO-pandemic influenza connection: coincident or causal?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaman, J. L.; Lipsitch, M.

    2011-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a coupled ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific, which affects weather conditions, including temperatures, precipitation, winds and storm activity, across the planet. ENSO has two extreme phases marked by either warmer (El Niño) or cooler (La Niña) than average sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific. We find that the 4 most recent human influenza pandemics (1918, 1957, 1968, 2009), all of which were first identified in boreal spring or summer, were preceded by La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific. Changes in ENSO have been shown to alter the migration, stopover time, fitness and interspecies mixing of migratory birds, and consequently likely affect their mixing with domestic animals. We hypothesize that La Niña conditions bring divergent influenza subtypes together in some parts of the world and favor the reassortment of influenza through simultaneous multiple infection of individual hosts and the generation of novel pandemic strains. We propose approaches to test this hypothesis using influenza population genetics, virus prevalence in various host species, and avian migration patterns.

  9. Getting Beyond Getting Ready for Pandemic Influenza

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2009-01-01

    .... We watch avian influenza move across the world, worry about how more than 60% of those people that contract the disease die from it, and realize that further mutations in currently circulating strains could cause them to easily infect human beings...

  10. Economic analysis of pandemic influenza mitigation strategies for five pandemic severity categories

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background The threat of emergence of a human-to-human transmissible strain of highly pathogenic influenza A(H5N1) is very real, and is reinforced by recent results showing that genetically modified A(H5N1) may be readily transmitted between ferrets. Public health authorities are hesitant in introducing social distancing interventions due to societal disruption and productivity losses. This study estimates the effectiveness and total cost (from a societal perspective, with a lifespan time horizon) of a comprehensive range of social distancing and antiviral drug strategies, under a range of pandemic severity categories. Methods An economic analysis was conducted using a simulation model of a community of ~30,000 in Australia. Data from the 2009 pandemic was used to derive relationships between the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and hospitalization rates for each of five pandemic severity categories, with CFR ranging from 0.1% to 2.5%. Results For a pandemic with basic reproduction number R0 = 1.8, adopting no interventions resulted in total costs ranging from $441 per person for a pandemic at category 1 (CFR 0.1%) to $8,550 per person at category 5 (CFR 2.5%). For severe pandemics of category 3 (CFR 0.75%) and greater, a strategy combining antiviral treatment and prophylaxis, extended school closure and community contact reduction resulted in the lowest total cost of any strategy, costing $1,584 per person at category 5. This strategy was highly effective, reducing the attack rate to 5%. With low severity pandemics costs are dominated by productivity losses due to illness and social distancing interventions, whereas higher severity pandemic costs are dominated by healthcare costs and costs arising from productivity losses due to death. Conclusions For pandemics in high severity categories the strategies with the lowest total cost to society involve rigorous, sustained social distancing, which are considered unacceptable for low severity pandemics due to societal

  11. Treatment and Prevention of Pandemic H1N1 Influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rewar, Suresh; Mirdha, Dashrath; Rewar, Prahlad

    2015-01-01

    Swine influenza is a respiratory infection common to pigs worldwide caused by type A influenza viruses, principally subtypes H1N1, H1N2, H2N1, H3N1, H3N2, and H2N3. Swine influenza viruses also can cause moderate to severe illness in humans and affect persons of all age groups. People in close contact with swine are at especially high risk. Until recently, epidemiological study of influenza was limited to resource-rich countries. The World Health Organization declared an H1N1 pandemic on June 11, 2009, after more than 70 countries reported 30,000 cases of H1N1 infection. In 2015, incidence of swine influenza increased substantially to reach a 5-year high. In India in 2015, 10,000 cases of swine influenza were reported with 774 deaths. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommend real-time polymerase chain reaction as the method of choice for diagnosing H1N1. Antiviral drugs are the mainstay of clinical treatment of swine influenza and can make the illness milder and enable the patient to feel better faster. Antiviral drugs are most effective when they are started within the first 48 hours after the clinical signs begin, although they also may be used in severe or high-risk cases first seen after this time. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends use of oseltamivir (Tamiflu, Genentech) or zanamivir (Relenza, GlaxoSmithKline). Prevention of swine influenza has 3 components: prevention in swine, prevention of transmission to humans, and prevention of its spread among humans. Because of limited treatment options, high risk for secondary infection, and frequent need for intensive care of individuals with H1N1 pneumonia, environmental control, including vaccination of high-risk populations and public education are critical to control of swine influenza out breaks. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Circulating avian influenza viruses closely related to the 1918 virus have pandemic potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, Tokiko; Zhong, Gongxun; Russell, Colin A.; Nakajima, Noriko; Hatta, Masato; Hanson, Anthony; McBride, Ryan; Burke, David F.; Takahashi, Kenta; Fukuyama, Satoshi; Tomita, Yuriko; Maher, Eileen A.; Watanabe, Shinji; Imai, Masaki; Neumann, Gabriele; Hasegawa, Hideki; Paulson, James C.; Smith, Derek J.; Kawaoka, Yoshihiro

    2014-01-01

    Summary Wild birds harbor a large gene pool of influenza A viruses that have the potential to cause influenza pandemics. Foreseeing and understanding this potential is important for effective surveillance. Our phylogenetic and geographic analyses revealed the global prevalence of avian influenza virus genes whose proteins differ only a few amino acids from the 1918 pandemic influenza virus, suggesting that 1918-like pandemic viruses may emerge in the future. To assess this risk, we generated and characterized a virus composed of avian influenza viral segments with high homology to the 1918 virus. This virus exhibited higher pathogenicity in mice and ferrets than an authentic avian influenza virus. Further, acquisition of seven amino acid substitutions in the viral polymerases and the hemagglutinin surface glycoprotein conferred respiratory droplet transmission to the 1918-like avian virus in ferrets, demonstrating that contemporary avian influenza viruses with 1918 virus-like proteins may have pandemic potential. PMID:24922572

  13. Modeling the economic impact of pandemic influenza: a case study in Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoldascan, Elcin; Kurtaran, Behice; Koyuncu, Melik; Koyuncu, Esra

    2010-04-01

    Influenza pandemics have occurred intermittently throughout the 20th century and killed millions of people worldwide. It is expected that influenza pandemics will continue to occur in the near future. Huge number of deaths and cases is the most troublesome aspect of the influenza pandemics, but the other important trouble is the economic impact of the influenza pandemics to the countries. In this study, we try to detect the cost of a possible influenza pandemic under different scenarios and attack rates. We include the vaccination and antiviral treatment cost for direct cost and we add the work absenteeism cost to the calculations for indirect cost of influenza pandemics. As a case study, we calculate the economic impact of pandemic influenza for Turkey under three different scenarios and three different attack rates. Our optimistic estimation shows that the economic impact of pandemic influenza will be between 1.364 billion dollars and 2.687 billions dollars to Turkish economy depending on the vaccination strategies.

  14. Influenza infection in the intensive care unit: Four years after the 2009 pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Carrasco, Marcos; Lagunes, Leonel; Antón, Andrés; Gattarello, Simone; Laborda, César; Pumarola, Tomás; Rello, Jordi

    2016-03-01

    The role of influenza viruses in severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) in Intensive Care Units (ICU) remains unknown. The post-pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 period, in particular, has been poorly studied. To identify influenza SARI patients in ICU, to assess the usefulness of the symptoms of influenza-like illness (ILI), and to compare the features of pandemic vs. post-pandemic influenza A(H1N1) pdm09 infection. A prospective observational study with SARI patients admitted to ICU during the first three post-pandemic seasons. Patient demographics, characteristics and outcomes were recorded. An influenza epidemic period (IEP) was defined as >100 cases/100,000 inhabitants per week. One hundred sixty-three patients were diagnosed with SARI. ILI was present in 65 (39.9%) patients. Influenza infection was documented in 41 patients, 27 (41.5%) ILI patients, and 14 (14.3%) non-ILI patients, 27 of them during an IEP. Influenza A viruses were mainly responsible. Only five patients had influenza B virus infection, which were non-ILI during an IEP. SARI overall mortality was 22.1%, and 15% in influenza infection patients. Pandemic and post-pandemic influenza infection patients shared similar clinical features. During influenza epidemic periods, influenza infection screening should be considered in all SARI patients. Influenza SARI was mainly caused by subtype A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) in post-pandemic seasons, and no differences were observed in ILI and mortality rate compared with a pandemic season. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

  15. Facing the threat of influenza pandemic - roles of and implications to general practitioners

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Albert

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The 2009 pandemic of H1N1 influenza, compounded with seasonal influenza, posed a global challenge. Despite the announcement of post-pandemic period on 10 August 2010 by theWHO, H1N1 (2009 virus would continue to circulate as a seasonal virus for some years and national health authorities should remain vigilant due to unpredictable behaviour of the virus. Majority of the world population is living in countries with inadequate resources to purchase vaccines and stockpile antiviral drugs. Basic hygienic measures such as wearing face masks and the hygienic practice of hand washing could reduce the spread of the respiratory viruses. However, the imminent issue is translating these measures into day-to-day practice. The experience from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS in Hong Kong has shown that general practitioners (GPs were willing to discharge their duties despite risks of getting infected themselves. SARS event has highlighted the inadequate interface between primary and secondary care and valuable health care resources were thus inappropriately matched to community needs. There are various ways for GPs to contribute in combating the influenza pandemic. They are prompt in detecting and monitoring epidemics and mini-epidemics of viral illnesses in the community. They can empower and raise the health literacy of the community such as advocating personal hygiene and other precautious measures. GPs could also assist in the development of protocols for primary care management of patients with flu-like illnesses and conduct clinical audits on the standards of preventive and treatment measures. GPs with adequate liaison with public health agencies would facilitate early diagnosis of patients with influenza. In this article, we summarise the primary care actions for phases 4-6 of the pandemic. We shall discuss the novel roles of GPs as alternative source of health care for patients who would otherwise be cared for in the secondary care

  16. Economic analysis of pandemic influenza vaccination strategies in Singapore.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vernon J Lee

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: All influenza pandemic plans advocate pandemic vaccination. However, few studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of different vaccination strategies. This paper compares the economic outcomes of vaccination compared with treatment with antiviral agents alone, in Singapore. METHODOLOGY: We analyzed the economic outcomes of pandemic vaccination (immediate vaccination and vaccine stockpiling compared with treatment-only in Singapore using a decision-based model to perform cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses. We also explored the annual insurance premium (willingness to pay depending on the perceived risk of the next pandemic occurring. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The treatment-only strategy resulted in 690 deaths, 13,950 hospitalization days, and economic cost of USD$497 million. For immediate vaccination, at vaccine effectiveness of >55%, vaccination was cost-beneficial over treatment-only. Vaccine stockpiling is not cost-effective in most scenarios even with 100% vaccine effectiveness. The annual insurance premium was highest with immediate vaccination, and was lower with increased duration to the next pandemic. The premium was also higher with higher vaccine effectiveness, attack rates, and case-fatality rates. Stockpiling with case-fatality rates of 0.4-0.6% would be cost-beneficial if vaccine effectiveness was >80%; while at case-fatality of >5% stockpiling would be cost-beneficial even if vaccine effectiveness was 20%. High-risk sub-groups warrant higher premiums than low-risk sub-groups. CONCLUSIONS: The actual pandemic vaccine effectiveness and lead time is unknown. Vaccine strategy should be based on perception of severity. Immediate vaccination is most cost-effective, but requires vaccines to be available when required. Vaccine stockpiling as insurance against worst-case scenarios is also cost-effective. Research and development is therefore critical to develop and stockpile cheap, readily available effective vaccines.

  17. Physician's knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding seasonal influenza, pandemic influenza, and highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) virus infections of humans in Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Mangiri, Amalya; Iuliano, A. Danielle; Wahyuningrum, Yunita; Praptiningsih, Catharina Y.; Lafond, Kathryn E.; Storms, Aaron D.; Samaan, Gina; Ariawan, Iwan; Soeharno, Nugroho; Kreslake, Jennifer M.; Storey, J. Douglas; Uyeki, Timothy M.

    2016-01-01

    Indonesia has reported highest number of fatal human cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A (H5N1) virus infection worldwide since 2005. There are limited data available on seasonal and pandemic influenza in Indonesia. During 2012, we conducted a survey of clinicians in two districts in western Java, Indonesia, to assess knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) of clinical diagnosis, testing, and treatment of patients with seasonal influenza, pandemic influenza, or HPAI H5N1 vir...

  18. Pandemic Flu

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Influenza Types Seasonal Avian Swine Variant Pandemic Other Pandemic Influenza Language: English (US) Español Recommend on Facebook ... Planning State and Local Government Planning More 1918 Pandemic Flu Commemoration 100 years later, read about the ...

  19. The 2009 A (H1N1) influenza virus pandemic: A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girard, Marc P; Tam, John S; Assossou, Olga M; Kieny, Marie Paule

    2010-07-12

    In March and early April 2009 a new swine-origin influenza virus (S-OIV), A (H1N1), emerged in Mexico and the USA. The virus quickly spread worldwide through human-to-human transmission. In view of the number of countries and communities which were reporting human cases, the World Health Organization raised the influenza pandemic alert to the highest level (level 6) on June 11, 2009. The propensity of the virus to primarily affect children, young adults and pregnant women, especially those with an underlying lung or cardiac disease condition, and the substantial increase in rate of hospitalizations, prompted the efforts of the pharmaceutical industry, including new manufacturers from China, Thailand, India and South America, to develop pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccines. All currently registered vaccines were tested for safety and immunogenicity in clinical trials on human volunteers. All were found to be safe and to elicit potentially protective antibody responses after the administration of a single dose of vaccine, including split inactivated vaccines with or without adjuvant, whole-virion vaccines and live-attenuated vaccines. The need for an increased surveillance of influenza virus circulation in swine is outlined. Copyright 2010. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  20. Influenza pandemic preparedness: motivation for protection among small and medium businesses in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watkins, Rochelle E; Cooke, Feonagh C; Donovan, Robert J; MacIntyre, C Raina; Itzwerth, Ralf; Plant, Aileen J

    2007-07-17

    Community-wide preparedness for pandemic influenza is an issue that has featured prominently in the recent news media, and is currently a priority for health authorities in many countries. The small and medium business sector is a major provider of private sector employment in Australia, yet we have little information about the preparedness of this sector for pandemic influenza. This study aimed to investigate the association between individual perceptions and preparedness for pandemic influenza among small and medium business owners and managers. Semi-structured face-to-face interviews were conducted with 201 small and medium business owners or managers in New South Wales and Western Australia. Eligible small or medium businesses were defined as those that had less than 200 employees. Binomial logistic regression analysis was used to identify the predictors of having considered the impact of, having a plan for, and needing help to prepare for pandemic influenza. Approximately 6 per cent of participants reported that their business had a plan for pandemic influenza, 39 per cent reported that they had not thought at all about the impact of pandemic influenza on their business, and over 60 per cent stated that they required help to prepare for a pandemic. Beliefs about the severity of pandemic influenza and the ability to respond were significant independent predictors of having a plan for pandemic influenza, and the perception of the risk of pandemic influenza was the most important predictor of both having considered the impact of, and needing help to prepare for a pandemic. Our findings suggest that small and medium businesses in Australia are not currently well prepared for pandemic influenza. We found that beliefs about the risk, severity, and the ability to respond effectively to the threat of pandemic influenza are important predictors of preparedness. Campaigns targeting small and medium businesses should emphasise the severity of the consequences to their

  1. Influenza pandemic preparedness: motivation for protection among small and medium businesses in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MacIntyre C Raina

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Community-wide preparedness for pandemic influenza is an issue that has featured prominently in the recent news media, and is currently a priority for health authorities in many countries. The small and medium business sector is a major provider of private sector employment in Australia, yet we have little information about the preparedness of this sector for pandemic influenza. This study aimed to investigate the association between individual perceptions and preparedness for pandemic influenza among small and medium business owners and managers. Methods Semi-structured face-to-face interviews were conducted with 201 small and medium business owners or managers in New South Wales and Western Australia. Eligible small or medium businesses were defined as those that had less than 200 employees. Binomial logistic regression analysis was used to identify the predictors of having considered the impact of, having a plan for, and needing help to prepare for pandemic influenza. Results Approximately 6 per cent of participants reported that their business had a plan for pandemic influenza, 39 per cent reported that they had not thought at all about the impact of pandemic influenza on their business, and over 60 per cent stated that they required help to prepare for a pandemic. Beliefs about the severity of pandemic influenza and the ability to respond were significant independent predictors of having a plan for pandemic influenza, and the perception of the risk of pandemic influenza was the most important predictor of both having considered the impact of, and needing help to prepare for a pandemic. Conclusion Our findings suggest that small and medium businesses in Australia are not currently well prepared for pandemic influenza. We found that beliefs about the risk, severity, and the ability to respond effectively to the threat of pandemic influenza are important predictors of preparedness. Campaigns targeting small and medium

  2. Clinical outcomes of seasonal influenza and pandemic influenza A (H1N1 in pediatric inpatients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Budd Alicia

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In April 2009, a novel influenza A H1N1 (nH1N1 virus emerged and spread rapidly worldwide. News of the pandemic led to a heightened awareness of the consequences of influenza and generally resulted in enhanced infection control practices and strengthened vaccination efforts for both healthcare workers and the general population. Seasonal influenza (SI illness in the pediatric population has been previously shown to result in significant morbidity, mortality, and substantial hospital resource utilization. Although influenza pandemics have the possibility of resulting in considerable illness, we must not ignore the impact that we can experience annually with SI. Methods We compared the outcomes of pediatric patients ≤18 years of age at a large urban hospital with laboratory confirmed influenza and an influenza-like illness (ILI during the 2009 pandemic and two prior influenza seasons. The primary outcome measure was hospital length of stay (LOS. All variables potentially associated with LOS based on univariable analysis, previous studies, or hypothesized relationships were included in the regression models to ensure adjustment for their effects. Results There were 133 pediatric cases of nH1N1 admitted during 2009 and 133 cases of SI admitted during the prior 2 influenza seasons (2007-8 and 2008-9. Thirty-six percent of children with SI and 18% of children with nH1N1 had no preexisting medical conditions (p = 0.14. Children admitted with SI had 1.73 times longer adjusted LOS than children admitted for nH1N1 (95% CI 1.35 - 2.13. There was a trend towards more children with SI requiring mechanical ventilation compared with nH1N1 (16 vs.7, p = 0.08. Conclusions This study strengthens the growing body of evidence demonstrating that SI results in significant morbidity in the pediatric population. Pandemic H1N1 received considerable attention with strong media messages urging people to undergo vaccination and encouraging improved

  3. Characteristics of atopic children with pandemic H1N1 influenza viral infection: pandemic H1N1 influenza reveals 'occult' asthma of childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasegawa, Shunji; Hirano, Reiji; Hashimoto, Kunio; Haneda, Yasuhiro; Shirabe, Komei; Ichiyama, Takashi

    2011-02-01

    The number of human cases of pandemic H1N1 influenza viral infection has increased in Japan since April 2009, as it has worldwide. This virus is widespread in the Yamaguchi prefecture in western Japan, where most infected children exhibited respiratory symptoms. Bronchial asthma is thought to be one of the risk factors that exacerbate respiratory symptoms of pandemic H1N1-infected patients, but the pathogenesis remains unclear. We retrospectively investigated the records of 33 children with pandemic H1N1 influenza viral infection who were admitted to our hospital between October and December 2009 and analyzed their clinical features. The percentage of children with asthma attack, with or without abnormal findings on chest radiographs (pneumonia, atelectasis, etc.), caused by pandemic H1N1 influenza infection was significantly higher than that of children with asthma attack and 2008-2009 seasonal influenza infection. Of the 33 children in our study, 22 (66.7%) experienced an asthma attack. Among these children, 20 (90.9%) did not receive long-term management for bronchial asthma, whereas 7 (31.8%) were not diagnosed with bronchial asthma and had experienced their first asthma attack. However, the severity of the attack did not correlate with the severity of the pulmonary complications of pandemic H1N1 influenza viral infection. The pandemic H1N1 influenza virus greatly increases the risk of lower respiratory tract complications such as asthma attack, pneumonia, and atelectasis, when compared to the seasonal influenza virus. Furthermore, our results suggest that pandemic H1N1 influenza viral infection can easily induce a severe asthma attack, pneumonia, and atelectasis in atopic children without any history of either an asthma attack or asthma treatment. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  4. Immune protection induced on day 10 following administration of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic influenza vaccine.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yizhuo Sun

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The 2009 swine-origin influenza virus (S-OIV H1N1 pandemic has caused more than 18,000 deaths worldwide. Vaccines against the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza virus are useful for preventing infection and controlling the pandemic. The kinetics of the immune response following vaccination with the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza vaccine need further investigation. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: 58 volunteers were vaccinated with a 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic influenza monovalent split-virus vaccine (15 µg, single-dose. The sera were collected before Day 0 (pre-vaccination and on Days 3, 5, 10, 14, 21, 30, 45 and 60 post vaccination. Specific antibody responses induced by the vaccination were analyzed using hemagglutination inhibition (HI assay and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA. After administration of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza vaccine, specific and protective antibody response with a major subtype of IgG was sufficiently developed as early as Day 10 (seroprotection rate: 93%. This specific antibody response could maintain for at least 60 days without significant reduction. Antibody response induced by the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza vaccine could not render protection against seasonal H1N1 influenza (seroconversion rate: 3% on Day 21. However, volunteers with higher pre-existing seasonal influenza antibody levels (pre-vaccination HI titer ≥1∶40, Group 1 more easily developed a strong antibody protection effect against the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza vaccine as compared with those showing lower pre-existing seasonal influenza antibody levels (pre-vaccination HI titer <1∶40, Group 2. The titer of the specific antibody against the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza was much higher in Group 1 (geometric mean titer: 146 on Day 21 than that in Group 2 (geometric mean titer: 70 on Day 21. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Recipients could gain sufficient protection as early as 10 days after vaccine administration. The protection could last at least 60 days. Individuals with a

  5. Natality Decline and Miscarriages Associated With the 1918 Influenza Pandemic: The Scandinavian and United States Experiences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bloom-Feshbach, Kimberly; Simonsen, Lone; Viboud, Cecile

    2011-01-01

    Background. Although pregnancy is a recognized risk factor for severe influenza infection, the effect of influenza on miscarriages and births remains unclear. We examined the relationship between influenza and birth rates during the 1918 pandemic in the United States, Denmark, Sweden, and Norway...... of peak pandemic exposure and depressions in birth rates, and identified pregnancy stages at risk of influenza-related miscarriage. Results. Birth rates declined in all study populations in spring 1919 by a mean of 2.2 births per 1000 persons, representing a 5%–15% drop below baseline levels (P ...). The 1919 natality depression reached its trough 6.1–6.8 months after the autumn pandemic peak, suggesting that missing births were attributable to excess first trimester miscarriages in ∼1 in 10 women who were pregnant during the peak of the pandemic. Pandemic-related mortality was insufficient to explain...

  6. Ethics for pandemics beyond influenza: Ebola, drug-resistant tuberculosis, and anticipating future ethical challenges in pandemic preparedness and response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Maxwell J; Silva, Diego S

    2015-01-01

    The unprecedented outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa has raised several novel ethical issues for global outbreak preparedness. It has also illustrated that familiar ethical issues in infectious disease management endure despite considerable efforts to understand and mitigate such issues in the wake of past outbreaks. To improve future global outbreak preparedness and response, we must examine these shortcomings and reflect upon the current state of ethical preparedness. To this end, we focus our efforts in this article on the examination of one substantial area: ethical guidance in pandemic plans. We argue that, due in part to their focus on considerations arising specifically in relation to pandemics of influenza origin, pandemic plans and their existing ethical guidance are ill-equipped to anticipate and facilitate the navigation of unique ethical challenges that may arise in other infectious disease pandemics. We proceed by outlining three reasons why this is so, and situate our analysis in the context of the EVD outbreak and the threat posed by drug-resistant tuberculosis: (1) different infectious diseases have distinct characteristics that challenge anticipated or existing modes of pandemic prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery, (2) clear, transparent, context-specific ethical reasoning and justification within current influenza pandemic plans are lacking, and (3) current plans neglect the context of how other significant pandemics may manifest. We conclude the article with several options for reflecting upon and ultimately addressing ethical issues that may emerge with different infectious disease pandemics.

  7. Behavioural intentions in response to an influenza pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kok, Gerjo; Jonkers, Ruud; Gelissen, Roger; Meertens, Ree; Schaalma, Herman; de Zwart, Onno

    2010-03-30

    Little is known regarding which behavioural responses can be expected if an influenza pandemic were to occur. A survey comprising questions based on risk perception theories, in particular PMT, was conducted with a Dutch sample. Although fear that an influenza pandemic may occur was high, participants do not feel well informed. General practitioners and local health authorities were considered trustworthy sources of information and the information considered most urgent pertained to which protective measures should be taken. Participants reported an intention to comply with recommendations regarding protective measures. However, response and self efficacy were low. Maladaptive behaviours can be expected. Increasing numbers of ill individuals and school closures are also expected to lead to a decreased work force. Participants indicated wanting antiviral drugs even if the supply were to be insufficient. Messages regarding health protective behaviours from local health authorities should anticipate the balance between overreacting and underreacting. Also, when protective recommendations from health professionals conflict with company policies, it is unclear how employees will react.

  8. Behavioural intentions in response to an influenza pandemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schaalma Herman

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Little is known regarding which behavioural responses can be expected if an influenza pandemic were to occur. Methods A survey comprising questions based on risk perception theories, in particular PMT, was conducted with a Dutch sample. Results Although fear that an influenza pandemic may occur was high, participants do not feel well informed. General practitioners and local health authorities were considered trustworthy sources of information and the information considered most urgent pertained to which protective measures should be taken. Participants reported an intention to comply with recommendations regarding protective measures. However, response and self efficacy were low. Maladaptive behaviours can be expected. Increasing numbers of ill individuals and school closures are also expected to lead to a decreased work force. Participants indicated wanting antiviral drugs even if the supply were to be insufficient. Conclusions Messages regarding health protective behaviours from local health authorities should anticipate the balance between overreacting and underreacting. Also, when protective recommendations from health professionals conflict with company policies, it is unclear how employees will react.

  9. Knowledge about pandemic influenza and compliance with containment measures among Australians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastwood, Keith; Durrheim, David; Francis, J Lynn; d'Espaignet, Edouard Tursan; Duncan, Sarah; Islam, Fakhrul; Speare, Rick

    2009-08-01

    To examine the level of stated compliance with public health pandemic influenza control measures and explore factors influencing cooperation for pandemic influenza control in Australia. A computer-assisted telephone interview survey was conducted by professional interviewers to collect information on the Australian public's knowledge of pandemic influenza and willingness to comply with public health control measures. The sample was randomly selected using an electronic database and printed telephone directories to ensure sample representativeness from all Australian states and territories. After we described pandemic influenza to the respondents to ensure they understood the significance of the issue, the questions on compliance were repeated and changes in responses were analysed with McNemar's test for paired data Only 23% of the 1166 respondents demonstrated a clear understanding of the term 'pandemic influenza'. Of those interviewed, 94.1% reported being willing to comply with home quarantine; 94.2%, to avoid public events; and 90.7%, to postpone social gatherings. After we explained the meaning of 'pandemic' to interviewees, stated compliance increased significantly (to 97.5%, 98.3% and 97.2% respectively). Those who reported being unfamiliar with the term 'pandemic influenza,' male respondents and employed people not able to work from home were less willing to comply. In Australia, should the threat arise, compliance with containment measures against pandemic influenza is likely to be high, yet it could be further enhanced through a public education programme conveying just a few key messages. A basic understanding of pandemic influenza is associated with stated willingness to comply with containment measures. Investing now in promoting measures to prepare for a pandemic or other health emergency will have considerable value.

  10. Effectiveness of non-adjuvanted pandemic influenza A vaccines for preventing pandemic influenza acute respiratory illness visits in 4 U.S. communities.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie R Griffin

    Full Text Available We estimated the effectiveness of four monovalent pandemic influenza A (H1N1 vaccines (three unadjuvanted inactivated, one live attenuated available in the U.S. during the pandemic. Patients with acute respiratory illness presenting to inpatient and outpatient facilities affiliated with four collaborating institutions were prospectively recruited, consented, and tested for influenza. Analyses were restricted to October 2009 through April 2010, when pandemic vaccine was available. Patients testing positive for pandemic influenza by real-time RT-PCR were cases; those testing negative were controls. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated in logistic regression models adjusted for study community, patient age, timing of illness, insurance status, enrollment site, and presence of high-risk medical conditions. Pandemic virus was detected in 1,011 (15% of 6,757 enrolled patients. Fifteen (1% of 1,011 influenza positive cases and 1,042 (18% of 5,746 test-negative controls had record-verified pandemic vaccination >14 days prior to illness onset. Adjusted effectiveness (95% confidence interval for pandemic vaccines combined was 56% (23%, 75%. Adjusted effectiveness for inactivated vaccines alone (79% of total was 62% (25%, 81% overall and 32% (-92%, 76%, 89% (15%, 99%, and -6% (-231%, 66% in those aged 0.5 to 9, 10 to 49, and 50+ years, respectively. Effectiveness for the live attenuated vaccine in those aged 2 to 49 years was only demonstrated if vaccination >7 rather than >14 days prior to illness onset was considered (61%∶ 12%, 82%. Inactivated non-adjuvanted pandemic vaccines offered significant protection against confirmed pandemic influenza-associated medical care visits in young adults.

  11. Perceived risk, anxiety, and behavioural responses of the general public during the early phase of the Influenza A (H1N1 pandemic in the Netherlands: results of three consecutive online surveys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van Steenbergen Jim E

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Research into risk perception and behavioural responses in case of emerging infectious diseases is still relatively new. The aim of this study was to examine perceptions and behaviours of the general public during the early phase of the Influenza A (H1N1 pandemic in the Netherlands. Methods Two cross-sectional and one follow-up online survey (survey 1, 30 April-4 May; survey 2, 15-19 June; survey 3, 11-20 August 2009. Adults aged 18 years and above participating in a representative Internet panel were invited (survey 1, n = 456; survey 2, n = 478; follow-up survey 3, n = 934. Main outcome measures were 1 time trends in risk perception, feelings of anxiety, and behavioural responses (survey 1-3 and 2 factors associated with taking preventive measures and strong intention to comply with government-advised preventive measures in the future (survey 3. Results Between May and August 2009, the level of knowledge regarding Influenza A (H1N1 increased, while perceived severity of the new flu, perceived self-efficacy, and intention to comply with preventive measures decreased. The perceived reliability of information from the government decreased from May to August (62% versus 45%. Feelings of anxiety decreased from May to June, and remained stable afterwards. From June to August 2009, perceived vulnerability increased and more respondents took preventive measures (14% versus 38%. Taking preventive measures was associated with no children in the household, high anxiety, high self-efficacy, more agreement with statements on avoidance, and paying much attention to media information regarding Influenza A (H1N1. Having a strong intention to comply with government-advised preventive measures in the future was associated with higher age, high perceived severity, high anxiety, high perceived efficacy of measures, high self-efficacy, and finding governmental information to be reliable. Conclusions Decreasing trends over time in perceived

  12. Global mortality estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR project: a modeling study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lone Simonsen

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09 is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was substantially higher. We estimated the 2009 pandemic mortality burden through statistical modeling of mortality data from multiple countries.We obtained weekly virology and underlying cause-of-death mortality time series for 2005-2009 for 20 countries covering ∼35% of the world population. We applied a multivariate linear regression model to estimate pandemic respiratory mortality in each collaborating country. We then used these results plus ten country indicators in a multiple imputation model to project the mortality burden in all world countries. Between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic respiratory deaths were estimated globally for the last 9 mo of 2009. The majority (62%-85% were attributed to persons under 65 y of age. We observed a striking regional heterogeneity, with almost 20-fold higher mortality in some countries in the Americas than in Europe. The model attributed 148,000-249,000 respiratory deaths to influenza in an average pre-pandemic season, with only 19% in persons <65 y. Limitations include lack of representation of low-income countries among single-country estimates and an inability to study subsequent pandemic waves (2010-2012.We estimate that 2009 global pandemic respiratory mortality was ∼10-fold higher than the World Health Organization's laboratory-confirmed mortality count. Although the pandemic mortality estimate was similar in magnitude to that of seasonal influenza, a marked shift toward mortality among persons <65 y of age occurred, so that many more life-years were lost. The burden varied greatly among countries, corroborating early reports of far greater pandemic severity in the Americas than in Australia, New Zealand, and Europe. A

  13. Hospitalizations Associated with Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in Asthmatic Children in Japan

    OpenAIRE

    Toshio Katsunuma; Takehiko Matsui; Tsutomu Iwata; Mitsuhiko Nambu; Naomi Kondo

    2012-01-01

    Background: The pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 [pdm (H1N1) 2009] spread through the world in 2009, producing a serious epidemic in Japan. Since it was suggested early that asthma is a risk factor for an increased severity of the infection, the Japanese Society of Pediatric Allergy and Clinical Immunology (JSPACI) organized a working group for countermeasures, and investigated asthmatic children admitted to the hospitals for pdm (H1N1) 2009 infection. Methods: An appeal was made on the ho...

  14. Household transmission of influenza A(H1N1pdm09 in the pandemic and post-pandemic seasons.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Itziar Casado

    Full Text Available The transmission of influenza viruses occurs person to person and is facilitated by contacts within enclosed environments such as households. The aim of this study was to evaluate secondary attack rates and factors associated with household transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1pdm09 in the pandemic and post-pandemic seasons.During the 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 influenza seasons, 76 sentinel physicians in Navarra, Spain, took nasopharyngeal and pharyngeal swabs from patients diagnosed with influenza-like illness. A trained nurse telephoned households of those patients who were laboratory-confirmed for influenza A(H1N1pdm09 to ask about the symptoms, risk factors and vaccination status of each household member.In the 405 households with a patient laboratory-confirmed for influenza A(H1N1pdm09, 977 susceptible contacts were identified; 16% of them (95% CI 14-19% presented influenza-like illness and were considered as secondary cases. The secondary attack rate was 14% in 2009-2010 and 19% in the 2010-2011 season (p=0.049, an increase that mainly affected persons with major chronic conditions. In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, the risk of being a secondary case was higher in the 2010-2011 season than in the 2009-2010 season (adjusted odds ratio: 1.72; 95% CI 1.17-2.54, and in children under 5 years, with a decreasing risk in older contacts. Influenza vaccination was associated with lesser incidence of influenza-like illness near to statistical significance (adjusted odds ratio: 0.29; 95% CI 0.08-1.03.The secondary attack rate in households was higher in the second season than in the first pandemic season. Children had a greater risk of infection. Preventive measures should be maintained in the second pandemic season, especially in high-risk persons.

  15. Global Emerging Infection Surveillance and Response (GEIS)- Avian Influenza Pandemic Influenza (AI/PI) Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-10-01

    KEMRI operated reference laboratories for this work in Nairobi, Kericho, and Kisumu, including the arbovirus reference laboratory, the antimalarial ...in military and civilian populations, and monitor the pattern of antimalarial resistance across Kenya. 15. SUBJECT TERMS NOTHING LISTED 16...confirms our earlier assertion that as we progress away from the H1N1 pandemic, we have noticed a decline in influenza activity suggesting that the high

  16. Macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Richard D; Keogh-Brown, Marcus R

    2013-09-01

    Research has shown the value of conducting a macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high-income countries, and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower- and middle-income countries. To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009. A single-country whole-economy Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure. Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour-intensive sectors suffer the largest losses. The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low-income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  17. The impact of the pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 virus on seasonal influenza A viruses in the southern hemisphere, 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blyth, C C; Kelso, A; McPhie, K A; Ratnamohan, V M; Catton, M; Druce, J D; Smith, D W; Williams, S H; Huang, Q S; Lopez, L; Schoub, B D; Venter, M; Dwyer, D E

    2010-08-05

    Data collected over winter 2009 by five World Health Organisation National Influenza Centres in the southern hemisphere were used to examine the circulation of pandemic and seasonal influenza A strains during the first pandemic wave in the southern hemisphere.There is compelling evidence that the pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 virus significantly displaced seasonal influenza A(H1N1) and, to a lesser extent, A(H3N2) viruses circulating in the southern hemisphere. Complete replacement of seasonal influenza A strains, however, was not observed during the first pandemic wave.

  18. Simulation to assess the efficacy of US airport entry scrreening of passengers for pandemic influenza

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mcmahon, Benjamin [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    We present our methodology and stochastic discrete-event simulation developed to model the screening of passengers for pandemic influenza at the US port-of-entry airports. Our model uniquely combines epidemiology modelling, evolving infected states and conditions of passengers over time, and operational considerations of screening in a single simulation. The simulation begins with international aircraft arrivals to the US. Passengers are then randomly assigned to one of three states -- not infected, infected with pandemic influenza and infected with other respiratory illness. Passengers then pass through various screening layers (i.e. pre-departure screening, en route screening, primary screening and secondary screening) and ultimately exit the system. We track the status of each passenger over time, with a special emphasis on false negatives (i.e. passengers infected with pandemic influenza, but are not identified as such) as these passengers pose a significant threat as they could unknowingly spread the pandemic influenza virus throughout our nation.

  19. 76 FR 58466 - Request for Comments on World Health Organization Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-21

    ... response, including implementation of the World Health Organization Pandemic Influenza Preparedness... INFORMATION: Written comments are sought in light of the approval of the World Health Organization (WHO... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE International Trade Administration Request for Comments on World Health...

  20. Identification of reassortant pandemic H1N1 influenza virus in Korean pigs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Jae Yeon; Park, Sung Jun; Kim, Hye Kwon; Rho, Semi; Nguyen, Giap Van; Song, Daesub; Kang, Bo Kyu; Moon, Hyung Jun; Yeom, Min Joo; Park, Bong Kyun

    2012-05-01

    Since the 2009 pandemic human H1N1 influenza A virus emerged in April 2009, novel reassortant strains have been identified throughout the world. This paper describes the detection and isolation of reassortant strains associated with human pandemic influenza H1N1 and swine influenza H1N2 (SIV) viruses in swine populations in South Korea. Two influenza H1N2 reassortants were detected, and subtyped by PCR. The strains were isolated using Madin- Darby canine kidney (MDCK) cells, and genetically characterized by phylogenetic analysis for genetic diversity. They consisted of human, avian, and swine virus genes that were originated from the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus and a neuraminidase (NA) gene from H1N2 SIV previously isolated in North America. This identification of reassortment events in swine farms raises concern that reassortant strains may continuously circulate within swine populations, calling for the further study and surveillance of pandemic H1N1 among swine.

  1. A Coordinated Approach to Communicating Pediatric-Related Information on Pandemic Influenza at the Community Level

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    HCTT CHE

    2009-12-16

    The purpose of this document is to provide a suggested approach, based on input from pediatric stakeholders, to communicating pediatric-related information on pandemic influenza at the community level in a step-by-step manner.

  2. Statistical estimates of absenteeism attributable to seasonal and pandemic influenza from the Canadian Labour Force Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schanzer, Dena L; Zheng, Hui; Gilmore, Jason

    2011-04-12

    As many respiratory viruses are responsible for influenza like symptoms, accurate measures of the disease burden are not available and estimates are generally based on statistical methods. The objective of this study was to estimate absenteeism rates and hours lost due to seasonal influenza and compare these estimates with estimates of absenteeism attributable to the two H1N1 pandemic waves that occurred in 2009. Key absenteeism variables were extracted from Statistics Canada's monthly labour force survey (LFS). Absenteeism and the proportion of hours lost due to own illness or disability were modelled as a function of trend, seasonality and proxy variables for influenza activity from 1998 to 2009. Hours lost due to the H1N1/09 pandemic strain were elevated compared to seasonal influenza, accounting for a loss of 0.2% of potential hours worked annually. In comparison, an estimated 0.08% of hours worked annually were lost due to seasonal influenza illnesses. Absenteeism rates due to influenza were estimated at 12% per year for seasonal influenza over the 1997/98 to 2008/09 seasons, and 13% for the two H1N1/09 pandemic waves. Employees who took time off due to a seasonal influenza infection took an average of 14 hours off. For the pandemic strain, the average absence was 25 hours. This study confirms that absenteeism due to seasonal influenza has typically ranged from 5% to 20%, with higher rates associated with multiple circulating strains. Absenteeism rates for the 2009 pandemic were similar to those occurring for seasonal influenza. Employees took more time off due to the pandemic strain than was typical for seasonal influenza.

  3. Statistical estimates of absenteeism attributable to seasonal and pandemic influenza from the Canadian Labour Force Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng Hui

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background As many respiratory viruses are responsible for influenza like symptoms, accurate measures of the disease burden are not available and estimates are generally based on statistical methods. The objective of this study was to estimate absenteeism rates and hours lost due to seasonal influenza and compare these estimates with estimates of absenteeism attributable to the two H1N1 pandemic waves that occurred in 2009. Methods Key absenteeism variables were extracted from Statistics Canada's monthly labour force survey (LFS. Absenteeism and the proportion of hours lost due to own illness or disability were modelled as a function of trend, seasonality and proxy variables for influenza activity from 1998 to 2009. Results Hours lost due to the H1N1/09 pandemic strain were elevated compared to seasonal influenza, accounting for a loss of 0.2% of potential hours worked annually. In comparison, an estimated 0.08% of hours worked annually were lost due to seasonal influenza illnesses. Absenteeism rates due to influenza were estimated at 12% per year for seasonal influenza over the 1997/98 to 2008/09 seasons, and 13% for the two H1N1/09 pandemic waves. Employees who took time off due to a seasonal influenza infection took an average of 14 hours off. For the pandemic strain, the average absence was 25 hours. Conclusions This study confirms that absenteeism due to seasonal influenza has typically ranged from 5% to 20%, with higher rates associated with multiple circulating strains. Absenteeism rates for the 2009 pandemic were similar to those occurring for seasonal influenza. Employees took more time off due to the pandemic strain than was typical for seasonal influenza.

  4. Statistical estimates of absenteeism attributable to seasonal and pandemic influenza from the Canadian Labour Force Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background As many respiratory viruses are responsible for influenza like symptoms, accurate measures of the disease burden are not available and estimates are generally based on statistical methods. The objective of this study was to estimate absenteeism rates and hours lost due to seasonal influenza and compare these estimates with estimates of absenteeism attributable to the two H1N1 pandemic waves that occurred in 2009. Methods Key absenteeism variables were extracted from Statistics Canada's monthly labour force survey (LFS). Absenteeism and the proportion of hours lost due to own illness or disability were modelled as a function of trend, seasonality and proxy variables for influenza activity from 1998 to 2009. Results Hours lost due to the H1N1/09 pandemic strain were elevated compared to seasonal influenza, accounting for a loss of 0.2% of potential hours worked annually. In comparison, an estimated 0.08% of hours worked annually were lost due to seasonal influenza illnesses. Absenteeism rates due to influenza were estimated at 12% per year for seasonal influenza over the 1997/98 to 2008/09 seasons, and 13% for the two H1N1/09 pandemic waves. Employees who took time off due to a seasonal influenza infection took an average of 14 hours off. For the pandemic strain, the average absence was 25 hours. Conclusions This study confirms that absenteeism due to seasonal influenza has typically ranged from 5% to 20%, with higher rates associated with multiple circulating strains. Absenteeism rates for the 2009 pandemic were similar to those occurring for seasonal influenza. Employees took more time off due to the pandemic strain than was typical for seasonal influenza. PMID:21486453

  5. The potential impact of the next influenza pandemic on a national primary care medical workforce

    OpenAIRE

    Wilson, Nick; Baker, Michael; Crampton, Peter; Mansoor, Osman

    2005-01-01

    Abstract Background Another influenza pandemic is all but inevitable. We estimated its potential impact on the primary care medical workforce in New Zealand, so that planning could mitigate the disruption from the pandemic and similar challenges. Methods The model in the "FluAid" software (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, CDC, Atlanta) was applied to the New Zealand primary care medical workforce (i.e., general practitioners). Results At its peak (week 4) the pandemic would lead to...

  6. Epidemiological and economic impact of pandemic influenza in Chicago: Priorities for vaccine interventions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nargesalsadat Dorratoltaj

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The study objective is to estimate the epidemiological and economic impact of vaccine interventions during influenza pandemics in Chicago, and assist in vaccine intervention priorities. Scenarios of delay in vaccine introduction with limited vaccine efficacy and limited supplies are not unlikely in future influenza pandemics, as in the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. We simulated influenza pandemics in Chicago using agent-based transmission dynamic modeling. Population was distributed among high-risk and non-high risk among 0-19, 20-64 and 65+ years subpopulations. Different attack rate scenarios for catastrophic (30.15%, strong (21.96%, and moderate (11.73% influenza pandemics were compared against vaccine intervention scenarios, at 40% coverage, 40% efficacy, and unit cost of $28.62. Sensitivity analysis for vaccine compliance, vaccine efficacy and vaccine start date was also conducted. Vaccine prioritization criteria include risk of death, total deaths, net benefits, and return on investment. The risk of death is the highest among the high-risk 65+ years subpopulation in the catastrophic influenza pandemic, and highest among the high-risk 0-19 years subpopulation in the strong and moderate influenza pandemics. The proportion of total deaths and net benefits are the highest among the high-risk 20-64 years subpopulation in the catastrophic, strong and moderate influenza pandemics. The return on investment is the highest in the high-risk 0-19 years subpopulation in the catastrophic, strong and moderate influenza pandemics. Based on risk of death and return on investment, high-risk groups of the three age group subpopulations can be prioritized for vaccination, and the vaccine interventions are cost saving for all age and risk groups. The attack rates among the children are higher than among the adults and seniors in the catastrophic, strong, and moderate influenza pandemic scenarios, due to their larger social contact network and homophilous

  7. Reviewing the History of Pandemic Influenza: Understanding Patterns of Emergence and Transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saunders-Hastings, Patrick R.; Krewski, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    For centuries, novel strains of influenza have emerged to produce human pandemics, causing widespread illness, death, and disruption. There have been four influenza pandemics in the past hundred years. During this time, globalization processes, alongside advances in medicine and epidemiology, have altered the way these pandemics are experienced. Drawing on international case studies, this paper provides a review of the impact of past influenza pandemics, while examining the evolution of our understanding of, and response to, these viruses. This review argues that pandemic influenza is in part a consequence of human development, and highlights the importance of considering outbreaks within the context of shifting global landscapes. While progress in infectious disease prevention, control, and treatment has improved our ability to respond to such outbreaks, globalization processes relating to human behaviour, demographics, and mobility have increased the threat of pandemic emergence and accelerated global disease transmission. Preparedness planning must continue to evolve to keep pace with this heightened risk. Herein, we look to the past for insights on the pandemic experience, underlining both progress and persisting challenges. However, given the uncertain timing and severity of future pandemics, we emphasize the need for flexible policies capable of responding to change as such emergencies develop. PMID:27929449

  8. Resilience Training for Hospital Workers in Anticipation of an Influenza Pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aiello, Andria; Khayeri, Michelle Young-Eun; Raja, Shreyshree; Peladeau, Nathalie; Romano, Donna; Leszcz, Molyn; Maunder, Robert G.; Rose, Marci; Adam, Mary Anne; Pain, Clare; Moore, Andrea; Savage, Diane; Schulman, Rabbi Bernard

    2011-01-01

    Background: Well before the H1N1 influenza, health care organizations worldwide prepared for a pandemic of unpredictable impact. Planners anticipated the possibility of a pandemic involving high mortality, high health care demands, rates of absenteeism rising up to 20-30% among health care workers, rationing of health care, and extraordinary…

  9. A perspective on multiple waves of influenza pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mummert, Anna; Weiss, Howard; Long, Li-Ping; Amigó, José M; Wan, Xiu-Feng

    2013-01-01

    A striking characteristic of the past four influenza pandemic outbreaks in the United States has been the multiple waves of infections. However, the mechanisms responsible for the multiple waves of influenza or other acute infectious diseases are uncertain. Understanding these mechanisms could provide knowledge for health authorities to develop and implement prevention and control strategies. We exhibit five distinct mechanisms, each of which can generate two waves of infections for an acute infectious disease. The first two mechanisms capture changes in virus transmissibility and behavioral changes. The third mechanism involves population heterogeneity (e.g., demography, geography), where each wave spreads through one sub-population. The fourth mechanism is virus mutation which causes delayed susceptibility of individuals. The fifth mechanism is waning immunity. Each mechanism is incorporated into separate mathematical models, and outbreaks are then simulated. We use the models to examine the effects of the initial number of infected individuals (e.g., border control at the beginning of the outbreak) and the timing of and amount of available vaccinations. Four models, individually or in any combination, reproduce the two waves of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in the United States, both qualitatively and quantitatively. One model reproduces the two waves only qualitatively. All models indicate that significantly reducing or delaying the initial numbers of infected individuals would have little impact on the attack rate. Instead, this reduction or delay results in a single wave as opposed to two waves. Furthermore, four of these models also indicate that a vaccination program started earlier than October 2009 (when the H1N1 vaccine was initially distributed) could have eliminated the second wave of infection, while more vaccine available starting in October would not have eliminated the second wave.

  10. A perspective on multiple waves of influenza pandemics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Mummert

    Full Text Available A striking characteristic of the past four influenza pandemic outbreaks in the United States has been the multiple waves of infections. However, the mechanisms responsible for the multiple waves of influenza or other acute infectious diseases are uncertain. Understanding these mechanisms could provide knowledge for health authorities to develop and implement prevention and control strategies.We exhibit five distinct mechanisms, each of which can generate two waves of infections for an acute infectious disease. The first two mechanisms capture changes in virus transmissibility and behavioral changes. The third mechanism involves population heterogeneity (e.g., demography, geography, where each wave spreads through one sub-population. The fourth mechanism is virus mutation which causes delayed susceptibility of individuals. The fifth mechanism is waning immunity. Each mechanism is incorporated into separate mathematical models, and outbreaks are then simulated. We use the models to examine the effects of the initial number of infected individuals (e.g., border control at the beginning of the outbreak and the timing of and amount of available vaccinations.Four models, individually or in any combination, reproduce the two waves of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in the United States, both qualitatively and quantitatively. One model reproduces the two waves only qualitatively. All models indicate that significantly reducing or delaying the initial numbers of infected individuals would have little impact on the attack rate. Instead, this reduction or delay results in a single wave as opposed to two waves. Furthermore, four of these models also indicate that a vaccination program started earlier than October 2009 (when the H1N1 vaccine was initially distributed could have eliminated the second wave of infection, while more vaccine available starting in October would not have eliminated the second wave.

  11. Pandemic influenza A/H1N1pdm in Italy: age, risk and population susceptibility.

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    Stefano Merler

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A common pattern emerging from several studies evaluating the impact of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic influenza (A/H1N1pdm conducted in countries worldwide is the low attack rate observed in elderly compared to that observed in children and young adults. The biological or social mechanisms responsible for the observed age-specific risk of infection are still to be deeply investigated. METHODS: The level of immunity against the A/H1N1pdm in pre and post pandemic sera was determined using left over sera taken for diagnostic purposes or routine ascertainment obtained from clinical laboratories. The antibody titres were measured by the haemagglutination inhibition (HI assay. To investigate whether certain age groups had higher risk of infection the presence of protective antibody (≥1∶40, was calculated using exact binomial 95% CI on both pre- and post- pandemic serological data in the age groups considered. To estimate age-specific susceptibility to infection we used an age-structured SEIR model. RESULTS: By comparing pre- and post-pandemic serological data in Italy we found age- specific attack rates similar to those observed in other countries. Cumulative attack rate at the end of the first A/H1N1pdm season in Italy was estimated to be 16.3% (95% CI 9.4%-23.1%. Modeling results allow ruling out the hypothesis that only age-specific characteristics of the contact network and levels of pre-pandemic immunity are responsible for the observed age-specific risk of infection. This means that age-specific susceptibility to infection, suspected to play an important role in the pandemic, was not only determined by pre-pandemic levels of H1N1pdm antibody measured by HI. CONCLUSIONS: Our results claim for new studies to better identify the biological mechanisms, which might have determined the observed pattern of susceptibility with age. Moreover, our results highlight the need to obtain early estimates of differential susceptibility with age in

  12. Corporate preparedness for pandemic influenza: a survey of pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies in Montgomery County, Maryland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watkins, Rissah J; Barnett, Daniel J; Links, Jonathan M

    2008-09-01

    We conducted a survey of corporate preparedness for pandemic influenza among biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies in Montgomery County, Maryland, to determine the level of preparedness for this industry and geographic region. The survey, based on the HHS Business Pandemic Influenza Planning Checklist, established whether a company had a preparedness plan specific to pandemic influenza, the contents of its plan, or its reasons for a lack of a plan. A total of 50 companies participated in the survey. Of these, 40 did not have any type of preparedness plan, 3 were drafting plans, 6 had general preparedness plans that could be applied to an influenza pandemic, and only 1 company had a preparedness plan specifically designed to address pandemic influenza. Biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies in this geographic region are currently not well prepared for pandemic influenza. Public health officials should offer more help, possibly in the form of a model small business preparedness plan, and collaboration between companies should be encouraged to foster sharing of preparedness plans.

  13. The Association of H1N1 Pandemic Influenza with Congenital Anomaly Prevalence in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Luteijn, Johannes Michiel; Addor, Marie-Claude; Arriola, Larraitz

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: In the context of the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT) surveillance response to the 2009 influenza pandemic, we sought to establish whether there was a detectable increase of congenital anomaly prevalence among pregnancies exposed to influenza seasons in general......, and whether any increase was greater during the 2009 pandemic than during other seasons. METHODS: We performed an ecologic time series analysis based on 26,967 pregnancies with nonchromosomal congenital anomaly conceived from January 2007 to March 2011, reported by 15 EUROCAT registries. Analysis...... and tricuspid atresia and stenosis during pandemic influenza season 2009, but not during 2007-2011 influenza seasons. For congenital anomalies, where there was no prior hypothesis, the prevalence of tetralogy of Fallot was strongly reduced during influenza seasons. CONCLUSIONS: Our data do not suggest...

  14. Fitness of Pandemic H1N1 and Seasonal influenza A viruses during Co-infection: Evidence of competitive advantage of pandemic H1N1 influenza versus seasonal influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez, Daniel Roberto; Sorrell, Erin; Angel, Matthew; Ye, Jianqiang; Hickman, Danielle; Pena, Lindomar; Ramirez-Nieto, Gloria; Kimble, Brian; Araya, Yonas

    2009-08-24

    On June 11, 2009 the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a new H1N1 influenza pandemic. This pandemic strain is as transmissible as seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 influenza A viruses. Major concerns facing this pandemic are whether the new virus will replace, co-circulate and/or reassort with seasonal H1N1 and/or H3N2 human strains. Using the ferret model, we investigated which of these three possibilities were most likely favored. Our studies showed that the current pandemic virus is more transmissible than, and has a biological advantage over, prototypical seasonal H1 or H3 strains.

  15. Adaptation of Pandemic H1N1 Influenza Viruses in Mice▿

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilyushina, Natalia A.; Khalenkov, Alexey M.; Seiler, Jon P.; Forrest, Heather L.; Bovin, Nicolai V.; Marjuki, Henju; Barman, Subrata; Webster, Robert G.; Webby, Richard J.

    2010-01-01

    The molecular mechanism by which pandemic 2009 influenza A viruses were able to sufficiently adapt to humans is largely unknown. Subsequent human infections with novel H1N1 influenza viruses prompted an investigation of the molecular determinants of the host range and pathogenicity of pandemic influenza viruses in mammals. To address this problem, we assessed the genetic basis for increased virulence of A/CA/04/09 (H1N1) and A/TN/1-560/09 (H1N1) isolates, which are not lethal for mice, in a new mammalian host by promoting their mouse adaptation. The resulting mouse lung-adapted variants showed significantly enhanced growth characteristics in eggs, extended extrapulmonary tissue tropism, and pathogenicity in mice. All mouse-adapted viruses except A/TN/1-560/09-MA2 grew faster and to higher titers in cells than the original strains. We found that 10 amino acid changes in the ribonucleoprotein (RNP) complex (PB2 E158G/A, PA L295P, NP D101G, and NP H289Y) and hemagglutinin (HA) glycoprotein (K119N, G155E, S183P, R221K, and D222G) controlled enhanced mouse virulence of pandemic isolates. HA mutations acquired during adaptation affected viral receptor specificity by enhancing binding to α2,3 together with decreasing binding to α2,6 sialyl receptors. PB2 E158G/A and PA L295P amino acid substitutions were responsible for the significant enhancement of transcription and replication activity of the mouse-adapted H1N1 variants. Taken together, our findings suggest that changes optimizing receptor specificity and interaction of viral polymerase components with host cellular factors are the major mechanisms that contribute to the optimal competitive advantage of pandemic influenza viruses in mice. These modulators of virulence, therefore, may have been the driving components of early evolution, which paved the way for novel 2009 viruses in mammals. PMID:20592084

  16. Influenza mortality in the United States, 2009 pandemic: burden, timing and age distribution.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ann M Nguyen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In April 2009, the most recent pandemic of influenza A began. We present the first estimates of pandemic mortality based on the newly-released final data on deaths in 2009 and 2010 in the United States. METHODS: We obtained data on influenza and pneumonia deaths from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS. Age- and sex-specific death rates, and age-standardized death rates, were calculated. Using negative binomial Serfling-type methods, excess mortality was calculated separately by sex and age groups. RESULTS: In many age groups, observed pneumonia and influenza cause-specific mortality rates in October and November 2009 broke month-specific records since 1959 when the current series of detailed US mortality data began. Compared to the typical pattern of seasonal flu deaths, the 2009 pandemic age-specific mortality, as well as influenza-attributable (excess mortality, skewed much younger. We estimate 2,634 excess pneumonia and influenza deaths in 2009-10; the excess death rate in 2009 was 0.79 per 100,000. CONCLUSIONS: Pandemic influenza mortality skews younger than seasonal influenza. This can be explained by a protective effect due to antigenic cycling. When older cohorts have been previously exposed to a similar antigen, immune memory results in lower death rates at older ages. Age-targeted vaccination of younger people should be considered in future pandemics.

  17. Early Detection of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Mustafizur; Al Mamun, Abdullah; Haider, Mohammad Sabbir; Zaman, Rashid Uz; Karmakar, Polash Chandra; Nasreen, Sharifa; Muneer, Syeda Mah-E; Homaira, Nusrat; Goswami, Doli Rani; Ahmed, Be-Nazir; Husain, Mohammad Mushtuq; Jamil, Khondokar Mahbuba; Khatun, Selina; Ahmed, Mujaddeed; Chakraborty, Apurba; Fry, Alicia; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; Bresee, Joseph; Azim, Tasnim; Alamgir, A.S.M.; Brooks, Abdullah; Hossain, Mohamed Jahangir; Klimov, Alexander; Rahman, Mahmudur; Luby, Stephen P.

    2012-01-01

    To explore Bangladesh’s ability to detect novel influenza, we examined a series of laboratory-confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 cases. During June–July 2009, event-based surveillance identified 30 case-patients (57% travelers); starting July 29, sentinel sites identified 252 case-patients (1% travelers). Surveillance facilitated response weeks before the spread of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 infection to the general population. PMID:22257637

  18. Market implementation of the MVA platform for pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza vaccines: A quantitative key opinion leader analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramezanpour, Bahar; Pronker, Esther S; Kreijtz, Joost H C M; Osterhaus, Albert D M E; Claassen, E

    2015-08-20

    A quantitative method is presented to rank strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) of modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) as a platform for pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza vaccines. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was applied to achieve pairwise comparisons among SWOT factors in order to prioritize them. Key opinion leaders (KOLs) in the influenza vaccine field were interviewed to collect a unique dataset to evaluate the market potential of this platform. The purpose of this study, to evaluate commercial potential of the MVA platform for the development of novel generation pandemic influenza vaccines, is accomplished by using a SWOT and AHP combined analytic method. Application of the SWOT-AHP model indicates that its strengths are considered more important by KOLs than its weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. Particularly, the inherent immunogenicity capability of MVA without the requirement of an adjuvant is the most important factor to increase commercial attractiveness of this platform. Concerns regarding vector vaccines and anti-vector immunity are considered its most important weakness, which might lower public health value of this platform. Furthermore, evaluation of the results of this study emphasizes equally important role that threats and opportunities of this platform play. This study further highlights unmet needs in the influenza vaccine market, which could be addressed by the implementation of the MVA platform. Broad use of MVA in clinical trials shows great promise for this vector as vaccine platform for pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza and threats by other respiratory viruses. Moreover, from the results of the clinical trials seem that MVA is particularly attractive for development of vaccines against pathogens for which no, or only insufficiently effective vaccines, are available. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  19. Mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in France: comparison to seasonal influenza and the A/H3N2 pandemic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magali Lemaitre

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic remains unclear in many countries due to delays in reporting of death statistics. We estimate the age- and cause-specific excess mortality impact of the pandemic in France, relative to that of other countries and past epidemic and pandemic seasons. METHODS: We applied Serfling and Poisson excess mortality approaches to model weekly age- and cause-specific mortality rates from June 1969 through May 2010 in France. Indicators of influenza activity, time trends, and seasonal terms were included in the models. We also reviewed the literature for country-specific estimates of 2009 pandemic excess mortality rates to characterize geographical differences in the burden of this pandemic. RESULTS: The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic was associated with 1.0 (95% Confidence Intervals (CI 0.2-1.9 excess respiratory deaths per 100,000 population in France, compared to rates per 100,000 of 44 (95% CI 43-45 for the A/H3N2 pandemic and 2.9 (95% CI 2.3-3.7 for average inter-pandemic seasons. The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic had a 10.6-fold higher impact than inter-pandemic seasons in people aged 5-24 years and 3.8-fold lower impact among people over 65 years. CONCLUSIONS: The 2009 pandemic in France had low mortality impact in most age groups, relative to past influenza seasons, except in school-age children and young adults. The historical A/H3N2 pandemic was associated with much larger mortality impact than the 2009 pandemic, across all age groups and outcomes. Our 2009 pandemic excess mortality estimates for France fall within the range of previous estimates for high-income regions. Based on the analysis of several mortality outcomes and comparison with laboratory-confirmed 2009/H1N1 deaths, we conclude that cardio-respiratory and all-cause mortality lack precision to accurately measure the impact of this pandemic in high-income settings and that use of more specific mortality outcomes is important to obtain reliable

  20. A duplex real-time RT-PCR assay for detecting H5N1 avian influenza virus and pandemic H1N1 influenza virus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qin E-de

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract A duplex real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR assay was improved for simultaneous detection of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus and pandemic H1N1 (2009 influenza virus, which is suitable for early diagnosis of influenza-like patients and for epidemiological surveillance. The sensitivity of this duplex real-time RT-PCR assay was 0.02 TCID50 (50% tissue culture infective dose for H5N1 and 0.2 TCID50 for the pandemic H1N1, which was the same as that of each single-target RT-PCR for pandemic H1N1 and even more sensitive for H5N1 with the same primers and probes. No cross reactivity of detecting other subtype influenza viruses or respiratory tract viruses was observed. Two hundred and thirty-six clinical specimens were tested by comparing with single real-time RT-PCR and result from the duplex assay was 100% consistent with the results of single real-time RT-PCR and sequence analysis.

  1. Were equatorial regions less affected by the 2009 influenza pandemic? The Brazilian experience.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cynthia Schuck-Paim

    Full Text Available Although it is in the Tropics where nearly half of the world population lives and infectious disease burden is highest, little is known about the impact of influenza pandemics in this area. We investigated the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza pandemic relative to mortality rates from various outcomes in pre-pandemic years throughout a wide range of latitudes encompassing the entire tropical, and part of the subtropical, zone of the Southern Hemisphere (+5(°N to -35(°S by focusing on a country with relatively uniform health care, disease surveillance, immunization and mitigation policies: Brazil. To this end, we analyzed laboratory-confirmed deaths and vital statistics mortality beyond pre-pandemic levels for each Brazilian state. Pneumonia, influenza and respiratory mortality were significantly higher during the pandemic, affecting predominantly adults aged 25 to 65 years. Overall, there were 2,273 and 2,787 additional P&I- and respiratory deaths during the pandemic, corresponding to a 5.2% and 2.7% increase, respectively, over average pre-pandemic annual mortality. However, there was a marked spatial structure in mortality that was independent of socio-demographic indicators and inversely related with income: mortality was progressively lower towards equatorial regions, where low or no difference from pre-pandemic mortality levels was identified. Additionally, the onset of pandemic-associated mortality was progressively delayed in equatorial states. Unexpectedly, there was no additional mortality from circulatory causes. Comparing disease burden reliably across regions is critical in those areas marked by competing health priorities and limited resources. Our results suggest, however, that tropical regions of the Southern Hemisphere may have been disproportionally less affected by the pandemic, and that climate may have played a key role in this regard. These findings have a direct bearing on global estimates of pandemic burden and the

  2. Pandemic influenza preparedness: an ethical framework to guide decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gibson Jennifer L

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Planning for the next pandemic influenza outbreak is underway in hospitals across the world. The global SARS experience has taught us that ethical frameworks to guide decision-making may help to reduce collateral damage and increase trust and solidarity within and between health care organisations. Good pandemic planning requires reflection on values because science alone cannot tell us how to prepare for a public health crisis. Discussion In this paper, we present an ethical framework for pandemic influenza planning. The ethical framework was developed with expertise from clinical, organisational and public health ethics and validated through a stakeholder engagement process. The ethical framework includes both substantive and procedural elements for ethical pandemic influenza planning. The incorporation of ethics into pandemic planning can be helped by senior hospital administrators sponsoring its use, by having stakeholders vet the framework, and by designing or identifying decision review processes. We discuss the merits and limits of an applied ethical framework for hospital decision-making, as well as the robustness of the framework. Summary The need for reflection on the ethical issues raised by the spectre of a pandemic influenza outbreak is great. Our efforts to address the normative aspects of pandemic planning in hospitals have generated interest from other hospitals and from the governmental sector. The framework will require re-evaluation and refinement and we hope that this paper will generate feedback on how to make it even more robust.

  3. Adoption of Preventive Measures and Attitudes toward the H1N1 Influenza Pandemic in Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez, Anna; Rodríguez, Tània; López, Maria José; Continente, Xavier; Nebot, Manel

    2016-01-01

    Background: This study describes the perceived impact of H1N1 influenza and the adoption of the recommended measures to address the pandemic in schools. Methods: A cross-sectional self-reported survey was conducted in 433 schools in Barcelona addressed to the school principal or the H1N1 influenza designated person. A descriptive analysis was…

  4. Addressing ethical issues in pandemic influenza planning: equitable access to scare medical resources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verweij, M.F.

    2007-01-01

    It is generally expected that sooner or later a novel influenza A virus subtype, easily transmissible from person to person, will emerge and cause pandemic disease. Humans will have little or no immunity to this virus, which could spread at least as easily as common seasonal influenza and

  5. US school/academic institution disaster and pandemic preparedness and seasonal influenza vaccination among school nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebmann, Terri; Elliott, Michael B; Reddick, Dave; D Swick, Zachary

    2012-09-01

    School pandemic preparedness is essential, but has not been evaluated. An online survey was sent to school nurses (from state school nurse associations and/or state departments of education) between May and July 2011. Overall school pandemic preparedness scores were calculated by assigning 1 point for each item in the school's pandemic plan; the maximum score was 11. Linear regression was used to describe factors associated with higher school pandemic preparedness scores. Nurse influenza vaccine uptake was assessed as well. A total of 1,997 nurses from 26 states completed the survey. Almost three-quarters (73.7%; n = 1,472) reported receiving the seasonal influenza vaccine during the 2010-11 season. Very few (2.2%; n = 43) reported that their school/district had a mandatory influenza vaccination policy. Pandemic preparedness scores ranged from 0 to 10 points, with an average score of 4.3. Determinants of school pandemic preparedness were as follows: planning to be a point of dispensing during a future pandemic (P nurse complete the survey (P school nurse study participant be a member of the school disaster planning committee (P schools must continue to address gaps in pandemic planning. Copyright © 2012 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Spreading patterns of the influenza A (H1N1 pandemic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio de Picoli Junior

    Full Text Available We investigate the dynamics of the 2009 influenza A (H1N1/S-OIV pandemic by analyzing data obtained from World Health Organization containing the total number of laboratory-confirmed cases of infections--by country--in a period of 69 days, from 26 April to 3 July, 2009. Specifically, we find evidence of exponential growth in the total number of confirmed cases and linear growth in the number of countries with confirmed cases. We also find that, i at early stages, the cumulative distribution of cases among countries exhibits linear behavior on log-log scale, being well approximated by a power law decay; ii for larger times, the cumulative distribution presents a systematic curvature on log-log scale, indicating a gradual change to lognormal behavior. Finally, we compare these empirical findings with the predictions of a simple stochastic model. Our results could help to select more realistic models of the dynamics of influenza-type pandemics.

  7. Are we prepared to help low-resource communities cope with a severe influenza pandemic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starbuck, Eric S; von Bernuth, Rudolph; Bolles, Kathryn; Koepsell, Jeanne

    2013-11-01

    Recent research involving lab-modified H5N1 influenza viruses with increased transmissibility and the ongoing evolution of the virus in nature should remind us of the continuing importance of preparedness for a severe influenza pandemic. Current vaccine technology and antiviral supply remain inadequate, and in a severe pandemic, most low-resource communities will fail to receive adequate medical supplies. However, with suitable guidance, these communities can take appropriate actions without substantial outside resources to reduce influenza transmission and care for the ill. Such guidance should be completed, and support provided to developing countries to adapt it for their settings and prepare for implementation. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Swine influenza and vaccines: an alternative approach for decision making about pandemic prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basili, Marcello; Ferrini, Silvia; Montomoli, Emanuele

    2013-08-01

    During the global pandemic of A/H1N1/California/07/2009 (A/H1N1/Cal) influenza, many governments signed contracts with vaccine producers for a universal influenza immunization program and bought hundreds of millions of vaccines doses. We argue that, as Health Ministers assumed the occurrence of the worst possible scenario (generalized pandemic influenza) and followed the strong version of the Precautionary Principle, they undervalued the possibility of mild or weak pandemic wave. An alternative decision rule, based on the non-extensive entropy principle, is introduced, and a different Precautionary Principle characterization is applied. This approach values extreme negative results (catastrophic events) in a different way and predicts more plausible and mild events. It introduces less pessimistic forecasts in the case of uncertain influenza pandemic outbreaks. A simplified application is presented using seasonal data of morbidity and severity among Italian children influenza-like illness for the period 2003-10. Established literature results predict an average attack rate of not less than 15% for the next pandemic influenza [Meltzer M, Cox N, Fukuda K. The economic impact of pandemic influenza in the United States: implications for setting priorities for interventions. Emerg Infect Dis 1999;5:659-71; Meltzer M, Cox N, Fukuda K. Modeling the Economic Impact of Pandemic Influenza in the United States: Implications for Setting Priorities for Intervention. Background paper. Atlanta, GA: CDC, 1999. Available at: http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol5no5/melt_back.htm (7 January 2011, date last accessed))]. The strong version of the Precautionary Principle would suggest using this prediction for vaccination campaigns. On the contrary, the non-extensive maximum entropy principle predicts a lower attack rate, which induces a 20% saving in public funding for vaccines doses. The need for an effective influenza pandemic prevention program, coupled with an efficient use of public

  9. Pandemia de influenza: la respuesta de México Influenza pandemic: Mexico's response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Kuri-Morales

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available En 1992 apareció en el sureste asiático un nuevo tipo de virus de la influenza, el cual ha ocasionado hasta la fecha más de 120 casos y un poco más de 60 defunciones en humanos en Camboya, Vietnam, Indonesia y Tailandia. Esta situación es considerada por los expertos como la probable génesis de una nueva pandemia de influenza, lo que podría traer graves consecuencias para la salud de la población, así como para la economía y el comercio mundial. Por lo anterior, la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS ha instado a los países miembros a desarrollar planes de preparación y respuesta para hacer frente a esta eventualidad. En el marco del Comité Nacional para la Seguridad en Salud, México ha diseñado el Plan Nacional de Preparación y Respuesta ante una Pandemia de Influenza con objeto de proteger a la población mediante acciones efectivas y oportunas. El Plan utiliza una escala de riesgo y define cinco líneas de acción: Coordinación, Vigilancia Epidemiológica, Atención Médica, Difusión y Movilización Social, y Reserva Estratégica. Si bien es imposible predecir cuándo se presentará la próxima pandemia y su impacto, es fundamental que las autoridades de salud nacionales, estatales y locales establezcan los mecanismos para poner en marcha los componentes del Plan en forma oportuna y garantizar con ello la salud de la población en caso de influenza pandémica.In 1992, a new type of influenza virus appeared in Southeast Asia. This new strain has caused to date, more than 120 cases and over 60 deaths in Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand. This situation is seen by the experts as the possible genesis of a new influenza pandemic with the corresponding negative effects on the health of the population, international commerce and world economy. In order to face the coming challenge, the World Health Organization (WHO has asked member countries to develop national preparedness and response plans for an influenza pandemic

  10. Oseltamivir for treatment and prevention of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 virus infection in households, Milwaukee, 2009

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    Miller Joel C

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background During an influenza pandemic, a substantial proportion of transmission is thought to occur in households. We used data on influenza progression in individuals and their contacts collected by the City of Milwaukee Health Department (MHD to study the transmission of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 virus in 362 households in Milwaukee, WI, and the effects of oseltamivir treatment and chemoprophylaxis. Methods 135 households had chronological information on symptoms and oseltamivir usage for all household members. The effect of oseltamivir treatment and other factors on the household secondary attack rate was estimated using univariate and multivariate logistic regression with households as the unit of analysis. The effect of oseltamivir treatment and other factors on the individual secondary attack rate was estimated using univariate and multivariate logistic regression with individual household contacts as the unit of analysis, and a generalized estimating equations approach was used to fit the model to allow for clustering within households. Results Oseltamivir index treatment on onset day or the following day (early treatment was associated with a 42% reduction (OR: 0.58, 95% CI: 0.19, 1.73 in the odds of one or more secondary infections in a household and a 50% reduction (OR: 0.5, 95% CI: 0.17, 1.46 in the odds of a secondary infection in individual contacts. The confidence bounds are wide due to a small sample of households with early oseltamivir index usage - in 29 such households, 5 had a secondary attack. Younger household contacts were at higher risk of infection (OR: 2.79, 95% CI: 1.50-5.20. Conclusions Early oseltamivir treatment may be beneficial in preventing H1N1pdm influenza transmission; this may have relevance to future control measures for influenza pandemics. Larger randomized trials are needed to confirm this finding statistically.

  11. Vaccination strategies for future influenza pandemics: a severity-based cost effectiveness analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelso, Joel K; Halder, Nilimesh; Milne, George J

    2013-02-11

    A critical issue in planning pandemic influenza mitigation strategies is the delay between the arrival of the pandemic in a community and the availability of an effective vaccine. The likely scenario, born out in the 2009 pandemic, is that a newly emerged influenza pandemic will have spread to most parts of the world before a vaccine matched to the pandemic strain is produced. For a severe pandemic, additional rapidly activated intervention measures will be required if high mortality rates are to be avoided. A simulation modelling study was conducted to examine the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of plausible combinations of social distancing, antiviral and vaccination interventions, assuming a delay of 6-months between arrival of an influenza pandemic and first availability of a vaccine. Three different pandemic scenarios were examined; mild, moderate and extreme, based on estimates of transmissibility and pathogenicity of the 2009, 1957 and 1918 influenza pandemics respectively. A range of different durations of social distancing were examined, and the sensitivity of the results to variation in the vaccination delay, ranging from 2 to 6 months, was analysed. Vaccination-only strategies were not cost effective for any pandemic scenario, saving few lives and incurring substantial vaccination costs. Vaccination coupled with long duration social distancing, antiviral treatment and antiviral prophylaxis was cost effective for moderate pandemics and extreme pandemics, where it saved lives while simultaneously reducing the total pandemic cost. Combined social distancing and antiviral interventions without vaccination were significantly less effective, since without vaccination a resurgence in case numbers occurred as soon as social distancing interventions were relaxed. When social distancing interventions were continued until at least the start of the vaccination campaign, attack rates and total costs were significantly lower, and increased rates of vaccination

  12. Determination of preventive behaviors for pandemic influenza A/H1N1 based on protection motivation theory among female high school students in Isfahan, Iran

    OpenAIRE

    Sharifirad, Gholamreza; Yarmohammadi, Parastoo; Sharifabad, Mohammad Ali Morowati; Rahaei, Zohreh

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: Influenza A/H1N1 pandemic has recently threatened the health of world's population more than ever. Non-pharmaceutical measures are important to prevent the spread of influenza A/H1N1 and to prevent a pandemic. Effective influenza pandemic management requires understanding of the factors influencing preventive behavioral. This study reports on predictors of students’ preventive behaviors for pandemic influenza A/H1N1 using variables based on the protection motivation theory (PMT)...

  13. Development of an influenza virus vaccine using the baculovirus-insect cell expression system : implications for pandemic preparedness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cox, M.M.J.

    2009-01-01

    Key word

    Influenza, rHA, vaccine, baculovirus, insect cells, production, pandemic preparedness

    Influenza (or flu) is a highly contagious, acute viral respiratory disease that occurs seasonally in most parts of the world and is caused by influenza viruses. Influenza

  14. The possible macroeconomic impact on the UK of an influenza pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keogh-Brown, Marcus R; Wren-Lewis, Simon; Edmunds, W John; Beutels, Philippe; Smith, Richard D

    2010-11-01

    Little is known about the possible impact of an influenza pandemic on a nation's economy. We applied the UK macroeconomic model 'COMPACT' to epidemiological data on previous UK influenza pandemics, and extrapolated a sensitivity analysis to cover more extreme disease scenarios. Analysis suggests that the economic impact of a repeat of the 1957 or 1968 pandemics, allowing for school closures, would be short-lived, constituting a loss of 3.35 and 0.58% of GDP in the first pandemic quarter and year, respectively. A more severe scenario (with more than 1% of the population dying) could yield impacts of 21 and 4.5%, respectively. The economic shockwave would be gravest when absenteeism (through school closures) increases beyond a few weeks, creating policy repercussions for influenza pandemic planning as the most severe economic impact is due to policies to contain the pandemic rather than the pandemic itself.Accounting for changes in consumption patterns made in an attempt to avoid infection worsens the potential impact. Our mild disease scenario then shows first quarter/first year reductions in GDP of 9.5/2.5%, compared with our severe scenario reductions of 29.5/6%. These results clearly indicate the significance of behavioural change over disease parameters. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Lessons learned from the global surveillance of pandemic influenza, the different communication strategies and the impact on Europe’s public health response.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Velden, J. van der; Paget, W.J.

    2010-01-01

    After the first case of Mexican flu was reported in early spring 2009, a wave of reported cases went quickly through the (scientific) media. Pandemic influenza A(H1N1) activity was reported in all continents, but most countries were affected during summer 2009 in Latin America, Oceania and Asia,

  16. Radiological and Clinical Characteristics of a Military Outbreak of Pandemic H1N1 2009 Influenza Virus Infection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yun, Tae Jin; Kwon, Gu Jin; Oh, Mi Kyeong; Woo, Sung Koo; Park, Seung Hoon; Choi, Seung Hong; Lee, Hyun Ju; Goo, Jin Mo; Yim, Jae Joon; Kim, Jong Sung; Park, Chang Min

    2010-01-01

    To describe detailed clinical and radiological features of the pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza viral infection among healthy young males in a semiclosed institutionalized setting. A total of 18 patients confirmed with the pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza virus infection from July 18 to July 30, 2009 were enrolled in this study. Each patient underwent an evaluation to determine detailed clinical and radiological features. All patients presented with high fever (> 38.0..C), with accompanying symptoms of cough, rhinorrhea, sore throat, myalgia and diarrhea, and increased C-reactive protein (CRP) values with no leukocytosis nor elevated erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR). All patients, including one patient who progressed into acute respiratory distress syndrome, were treated with oseltamivir phosphate and quickly recovered from their symptoms. Chest radiographs showed abnormalities of small nodules and lobar consolidation in only two out of 18 patients. However, six of 12 patients who underwent thin-section CT examinations showed abnormal findings for small ground-glass opacities (GGOs) in addition to poorly-defined nodules with upper lobe predominance. In a population of healthy young adults, elevated CRP with normal ESR and white blood cell levels combined with GGOs and nodules on thin section CT scans may indicate early signs of infection by the pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza virus

  17. Global mortality estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR project: a modeling study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Simonsen, L.; Spreeuwenberg, P.; Lustig, R.; Taylor, R.J.; Fleming, D.M.; Kroneman, M.; Kerkhove, M.D. Van; Mounts, A.W.; Paget, W.J.; Teams, G.L.C.

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was

  18. Global mortality estimates for the 2009 influenza pandemic from the GLaMOR Project: a modeling study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Simonsen, L.; Spreeuwenberg, P.; Lustig, R.; Taylor, R.J.; Fleming, D.M.; Kroneman, M.; Kerkhove, M.D. van; Mounts, A.W.; Paget, W.J.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was

  19. Mutation analysis of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1 viruses collected in Japan during the peak phase of the pandemic.

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    Jean-Étienne Morlighem

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Pandemic influenza A(H1N1 virus infection quickly circulated worldwide in 2009. In Japan, the first case was reported in May 2009, one month after its outbreak in Mexico. Thereafter, A(H1N1 infection spread widely throughout the country. It is of great importance to profile and understand the situation regarding viral mutations and their circulation in Japan to accumulate a knowledge base and to prepare clinical response platforms before a second pandemic (pdm wave emerges. METHODOLOGY: A total of 253 swab samples were collected from patients with influenza-like illness in the Osaka, Tokyo, and Chiba areas both in May 2009 and between October 2009 and January 2010. We analyzed partial sequences of the hemagglutinin (HA and neuraminidase (NA genes of the 2009 pdm influenza virus in the collected clinical samples. By phylogenetic analysis, we identified major variants of the 2009 pdm influenza virus and critical mutations associated with severe cases, including drug-resistance mutations. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Our sequence analysis has revealed that both HA-S220T and NA-N248D are major non-synonymous mutations that clearly discriminate the 2009 pdm influenza viruses identified in the very early phase (May 2009 from those found in the peak phase (October 2009 to January 2010 in Japan. By phylogenetic analysis, we found 14 micro-clades within the viruses collected during the peak phase. Among them, 12 were new micro-clades, while two were previously reported. Oseltamivir resistance-related mutations, i.e., NA-H275Y and NA-N295S, were also detected in sporadic cases in Osaka and Tokyo.

  20. Fulminant hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis induced by pandemic A (H1N1 influenza: a case report

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    Wacrenier Agnès

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction Hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis induced by viral diseases is a well recognized entity. Severe forms of H5N1 influenza are known to be associated with symptoms very similar to a reactive hemophagocytic syndrome. We report a case of fulminant lymphohistiocytosis associated with the pandemic A (H1N1 variant. Case presentation A 42-year-old Caucasian woman developed a syndrome of fatal hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis shortly after H1N1 influenza. Initial symptoms of the viral disease were unusual, with acute abdominal involvement. Our patient's course was complicated by diffuse skin rash and ileal ischemia. Our patient died of refractory shock and multi-organ failure. Skin, ileum and colon histology was consistent with an acute apoptosis combined with an increased cellular regeneration. Conclusions Influenza may be complicated by severe forms of hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis. To ensure early recognition and treatment, physicians should be aware of the possible induction of the syndrome by the novel H1N1 variant. The rapid occurrence of a multi-organ involvement with evocative biological features of macrophage activation should alert clinicians.

  1. Public health and economic impact of vaccination with 7-valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV7 in the context of the annual influenza epidemic and a severe influenza pandemic

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    Strutton David R

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Influenza pandemic outbreaks occurred in the US in 1918, 1957, and 1968. Historical evidence suggests that the majority of influenza-related deaths during the 1918 US pandemic were attributable to bacterial pneumococcal infections. The 2009 novel influenza A (H1N1 outbreak highlights the importance of interventions that may mitigate the impact of a pandemic. Methods A decision-analytic model was constructed to evaluate the impact of 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7 on pneumococcal disease incidence and mortality during a typical influenza season (13/100 and a severe influenza pandemic (30/100. Outcomes were compared for current PCV7 vaccination practices vs. no vaccination. The model was estimated using published sources and includes indirect (herd protection of non-vaccinated persons. Results The model predicts that PCV7 vaccination in the US is cost saving for a normal influenza season, reducing pneumococcal-related costs by $1.6 billion. In a severe influenza pandemic, vaccination would save $7.3 billion in costs and prevent 512,000 cases of IPD, 719,000 cases of pneumonia, 62,000 IPD deaths, and 47,000 pneumonia deaths; 84% of deaths are prevented due to indirect (herd protection in the unvaccinated. Conclusions PCV7 vaccination is highly effective and cost saving in both normal and severe pandemic influenza seasons. Current infant vaccination practices may prevent >1 million pneumococcal-related deaths in a severe influenza pandemic, primarily due to herd protection.

  2. Public health and economic impact of vaccination with 7-valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV7) in the context of the annual influenza epidemic and a severe influenza pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubin, Jaime L; McGarry, Lisa J; Klugman, Keith P; Strutton, David R; Gilmore, Kristen E; Weinstein, Milton C

    2010-01-21

    Influenza pandemic outbreaks occurred in the US in 1918, 1957, and 1968. Historical evidence suggests that the majority of influenza-related deaths during the 1918 US pandemic were attributable to bacterial pneumococcal infections. The 2009 novel influenza A (H1N1) outbreak highlights the importance of interventions that may mitigate the impact of a pandemic. A decision-analytic model was constructed to evaluate the impact of 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) on pneumococcal disease incidence and mortality during a typical influenza season (13/100) and a severe influenza pandemic (30/100). Outcomes were compared for current PCV7 vaccination practices vs. no vaccination. The model was estimated using published sources and includes indirect (herd) protection of non-vaccinated persons. The model predicts that PCV7 vaccination in the US is cost saving for a normal influenza season, reducing pneumococcal-related costs by $1.6 billion. In a severe influenza pandemic, vaccination would save $7.3 billion in costs and prevent 512,000 cases of IPD, 719,000 cases of pneumonia, 62,000 IPD deaths, and 47,000 pneumonia deaths; 84% of deaths are prevented due to indirect (herd) protection in the unvaccinated. PCV7 vaccination is highly effective and cost saving in both normal and severe pandemic influenza seasons. Current infant vaccination practices may prevent >1 million pneumococcal-related deaths in a severe influenza pandemic, primarily due to herd protection.

  3. People at Risk of Influenza Pandemics: The Evolution of Perception and Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jianhua; Peng, Zongchao

    2015-01-01

    Influenza pandemics can severely impact human health and society. Understanding public perception and behavior toward influenza pandemics is important for minimizing the effects of such events. Public perception and behavior are expected to change over the course of an influenza pandemic, but this idea has received little attention in previous studies. Our study aimed to understand the dynamics of public perception and behavior over the course of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Three consecutive cross-sectional surveys were administered among Beijing residents with random-digit dialing techniques in March 2008 and August and November 2009. Effective samples of 507, 508 and 1006 respondents were interviewed in each of the three surveys, respectively. The mean scores of risk perception were low to moderate across the three surveys. The perceived risk of infection of self was significantly lower than that of the community, revealing an optimistic bias. Longitudinally, the perceived risk of contracting H1N1 increased, whereas the perceived risk of being unable to obtain medicine and medical care once influenza permeated the community first increased and then decreased. Responsive actions toward influenza varied. Most respondents took actions that required little extra effort, such as ventilating rooms; these actions did not change over time. Comparatively, a smaller number of respondents took actions for coping with influenza, such as vaccination; however, these actions were taken by an increasing number of respondents over time. The association between risk perception and behavior was unstable. Positive, insignificant, and negative associations were obtained in the three surveys. In conclusion, the evolving patterns of risk perception and responsive behavior over the course of an influenza pandemic are sensitive to how risk and behavior are defined and scoped.

  4. People at Risk of Influenza Pandemics: The Evolution of Perception and Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jianhua; Peng, Zongchao

    2015-01-01

    Influenza pandemics can severely impact human health and society. Understanding public perception and behavior toward influenza pandemics is important for minimizing the effects of such events. Public perception and behavior are expected to change over the course of an influenza pandemic, but this idea has received little attention in previous studies. Our study aimed to understand the dynamics of public perception and behavior over the course of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Three consecutive cross-sectional surveys were administered among Beijing residents with random-digit dialing techniques in March 2008 and August and November 2009. Effective samples of 507, 508 and 1006 respondents were interviewed in each of the three surveys, respectively. The mean scores of risk perception were low to moderate across the three surveys. The perceived risk of infection of self was significantly lower than that of the community, revealing an optimistic bias. Longitudinally, the perceived risk of contracting H1N1 increased, whereas the perceived risk of being unable to obtain medicine and medical care once influenza permeated the community first increased and then decreased. Responsive actions toward influenza varied. Most respondents took actions that required little extra effort, such as ventilating rooms; these actions did not change over time. Comparatively, a smaller number of respondents took actions for coping with influenza, such as vaccination; however, these actions were taken by an increasing number of respondents over time. The association between risk perception and behavior was unstable. Positive, insignificant, and negative associations were obtained in the three surveys. In conclusion, the evolving patterns of risk perception and responsive behavior over the course of an influenza pandemic are sensitive to how risk and behavior are defined and scoped. PMID:26658371

  5. Health Care Workers’ Risk Perceptions and Willingness to Report for Work during an Influenza Pandemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georges Dionne

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The ability and willingness of health care workers to report for work during a pandemic are essential to pandemic response. The main contribution of this article is to examine the relationship between risk perception of personal and work activities and willingness to report for work during an influenza pandemic. Data were collected through a quantitative Web-based survey sent to health care workers on the island of Montreal. Respondents were asked about their perception of various risks to obtain index measures of risk perception. A multinomial logit model was applied for the probability estimations, and a factor analysis was conducted to compute risk perception indexes (scores. Risk perception associated with personal and work activities is a significant predictor of intended presence at work during an influenza pandemic. This means that correcting perceptual biases should be a public policy concern. These results have not been previously reported in the literature. Many organizational variables are also significant.

  6. Alberta family physicians? willingness to work during an influenza pandemic: a cross-sectional study

    OpenAIRE

    Dickinson, James A; Bani-Adam, Gisoo; Williamson, Tyler; Berzins, Sandy; Pearce, Craig; Ricketson, Leah; Medd, Emily

    2013-01-01

    Objective Effective pandemic responses rely on frontline healthcare workers continuing to work despite increased risk to themselves. Our objective was to investigate Alberta family physicians willingness to work during an influenza pandemic. Design: Cross-sectional survey. Setting: Alberta prior to the fall wave of the H1N1 epidemic. Participants: 192 participants from a random sample of 1000 Alberta family physicians stratified by region. Main Outcome Measures: Willingness to work through di...

  7. Influenza Pandemic: Gaps in Pandemic Planning and Preparedness Need to Be Addressed. Testimony before the Committee on Homeland Security, House of Representatives. GAO-09-909T

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinhardt, Bernice

    2009-01-01

    As the current H1N1 outbreak underscores, an influenza pandemic remains a real threat to our nation. Over the past 3 years, the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) conducted a body of work, consisting of 12 reports and 4 testimonies, to help the nation better prepare for a possible pandemic. In February 2009, GAO synthesized the results of…

  8. Comparison between pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza pneumonia and seasonal influenza pneumonia in adults

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishiguro, Takashi; Takayanagi, Noboru; Yoneda, Koichiro

    2011-01-01

    We compared 126 cases of seasonal influenza pneumonia (seasonal flu) reported between January, 1996 and March, 2009, with 10 cases of laboratory-confirmed pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 influenza virus pneumonia (novel flu), based on clinical condition, computed tomography (CT) findings, severity, treatment, and prognosis, to clarify the characteristics of this novel flu. The mean age of subjects was 52.4 years in the novel flu group and 64 years in the seasonal flu group, and novel flu patients were younger than seasonal flu patients. Seasonal flu patients had more underlying diseases than did novel flu patients. The median duration from illness onset to hospitalization was 4 days in both groups. Primary viral pneumonia was present in 70% of novel flu cases and 31% of seasonal flu cases. The proportion of primary virus pneumonia was higher in novel flu patients, and the disease severity of the seasonal flu group was more severe than that of the novel flu group. White blood cell and lymphocyte counts were lower in novel flu patients, and chest CT images showed bilateral shadows and pure ground-glass opacities more frequently in the novel flu cases. There were no differences in treatment, number of days required for the fever to subside, or mortality between the groups. (author)

  9. Genetic Characterization of Influenza A (H1N1) Pandemic 2009 Virus Isolates from Mumbai.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gohil, Devanshi; Kothari, Sweta; Shinde, Pramod; Meharunkar, Rhuta; Warke, Rajas; Chowdhary, Abhay; Deshmukh, Ranjana

    2017-08-01

    Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus was first detected in India in May 2009 which subsequently became endemic in many parts of the country. Influenza A viruses have the ability to evade the immune response through its ability of antigenic variations. The study aims to characterize influenza A (H1N1) pdm 09 viruses circulating in Mumbai during the pandemic and post-pandemic period. Nasopharyngeal swabs positive for influenza A (H1N1) pdm 09 viruses were inoculated on Madin-Darby canine kidney cell line for virus isolation. Molecular and phylogenetic analysis of influenza A (H1N1) pdm 09 isolates was conducted to understand the evolution and genetic diversity of the strains. Nucleotide and amino acid sequences of the HA gene of Mumbai isolates when compared to A/California/07/2009-vaccine strain revealed 14 specific amino acid differences located at the antigenic sites. Amino acid variations in HA and NA gene resulted in changes in the N-linked glycosylation motif which may lead to immune evasion. Phylogenetic analysis of the isolates revealed their evolutionary position with vaccine strain A/California/07/2009 but had undergone changes gradually. The findings in the present study confirm genetic variability of influenza viruses and highlight the importance of continuous surveillance during influenza outbreaks.

  10. Assessing exposure risks for aquatic organisms posed by Tamiflu use under seasonal influenza and pandemic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Wei-Yu; Lin, Chia-Jung; Liao, Chung-Min

    2014-01-01

    Environmental pollution by anti-influenza drugs is increasingly recognized as a threat to aquatic environments. However, little is known about empirical data on risk effects posed by environmentally relevant concentrations of anti-influenza drug based on recently published ecotoxicological researches in Taiwan. Here we linked ecotoxicology models with an epidemiological scheme to assess exposure risks of aquatic organisms and environmental hazards posed by antiviral oseltamivir (Tamiflu) use in Taiwan. Built on published bioassays, we used probabilistic risk assessment model to estimate potential threats of environmentally relevant hazards on algae, daphnid, and zerbrafish. We found that Tamiflu use was unlikely to pose a significant chronic environmental risk to daphnia and zebrafish during seasonal influenza. However, the chronic environmental risk posed by Tamiflu use during pandemic was alarming. We conclude that no significant risk to algal growth was found during seasonal influenza and high pandemic Tamiflu use. -- Highlights: • Environmentally relevant concentrations of anti-influenza drug have ecotoxicologically important effects. • Tamiflu is unlikely to pose a significant chronic environmental risk during seasonal influenza. • Chronic environmental risk posed by Tamiflu during pandemic is alarming. • Tertiary process in sewage treatment plants is crucial in mitigating Tamiflu exposure risk. -- A probabilistic framework can be used for assessing exposure risks posed by environmentally relevant concentrations of anti-influenza drug in aquatic ecosystems

  11. Differential mortality rates by ethnicity in 3 influenza pandemics over a century, New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Nick; Barnard, Lucy Telfar; Summers, Jennifer A; Shanks, G Dennis; Baker, Michael G

    2012-01-01

    Evidence suggests that indigenous populations have suffered disproportionately from past influenza pandemics. To examine any such patterns for Māori in New Zealand, we searched the literature and performed new analyses by using additional datasets. The Māori death rate in the 1918 pandemic (4,230/100,000 population) was 7.3× the European rate. In the 1957 pandemic, the Māori death rate (40/100,000) was 6.2× the European rate. In the 2009 pandemic, the Māori rate was higher than the European rate (rate ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.3-5.3). These findings suggest some decline in pandemic-related ethnic inequalities in death rates over the past century. Nevertheless, the persistent excess in adverse outcomes for Māori, and for Pacific persons residing in New Zealand, highlights the need for improved public health responses.

  12. Pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating an influenza pandemic: modeling the risks and health-economic impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Postma, Maarten J; Milne, George; Nelson, E Anthony S; Pyenson, Bruce; Basili, Marcello; Coker, Richard; Oxford, John; Garrison, Louis P

    2010-12-01

    Model-based analyses built on burden-of-disease and cost-effectiveness theory predict that pharmaceutical interventions may efficiently mitigate both the epidemiologic and economic impact of an influenza pandemic. Pharmaceutical interventions typically encompass the application of (pre)pandemic influenza vaccines, other vaccines (notably pneumococcal), antiviral treatments and other drug treatment (e.g., antibiotics to target potential complications of influenza). However, these models may be too limited to capture the full macro-economic impact of pandemic influenza. The aim of this article is to summarize current health-economic modeling approaches to recognize the strengths and weaknesses of these approaches, and to compare these with more recently proposed alternative methods. We conclude that it is useful, particularly for policy and planning purposes, to extend modeling concepts through the application of alternative approaches, including insurers' risk theories, human capital approaches and sectoral and full macro-economic modeling. This article builds on a roundtable meeting of the Pandemic Influenza Economic Impact Group that was held in Boston, MA, USA, in December 2008.

  13. Protecting public health and global freight transportation systems during an influenza pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luke, Thomas C; Rodrigue, Jean-Paul

    2008-01-01

    The H5N1 influenza threat is resulting in global preparations for the next influenza pandemic. Pandemic influenza planners are prioritizing scarce vaccine, antivirals, and public health support for different segments of society. The freight, bulk goods, and energy transportation network comprise the maritime, rail, air, and trucking industries. It relies on small numbers of specialized workers who cannot be rapidly replaced if lost due to death, illness, or voluntary absenteeism. Because transportation networks link economies, provide critical infrastructures with working material, and supply citizens with necessary commodities, disrupted transportation systems can lead to cascading failures in social and economic systems. However, some pandemic influenza plans have assigned transportation workers a low priority for public health support, vaccine, and antivirals. The science of Transportation Geography demonstrates that transportation networks and workers are concentrated at, or funnel through, a small number of chokepoints and corridors. Chokepoints should be used to rapidly and efficiently vaccinate and prophylax the transportation worker cohort and to implement transmission prevention measures and thereby protect the ability to move goods. Nations, states, the transportation industry and unions, businesses, and other stakeholders must plan, resource, and exercise, and then conduct a transportation health assurance and security campaign for an influenza pandemic.

  14. "It's as bad as anything can be": Patients, identity, and the influenza pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bristow, Nancy K

    2010-04-01

    Americans were stunned when pandemic influenza hit the United States in 1918. Recent advances in bacteriology and public health allowed Americans to imagine a future free of infectious disease, even as their familiarity with influenza tempered their fears of it. They soon realized this influenza was something unprecedented, as it shocked them with its pace, virulence, mortality patterns, and symptoms. Patients endured and frequently succumbed to a miserable illness, their suffering often made worse by the chaotic circumstances the epidemic produced in families and communities and shaped in significant and sometimes discriminatory ways by their gender, class, and race. While the nation's public culture soon forgot the epidemic, it lived on in lives changed irrevocably by its consequences. As they face present and future influenza pandemics, Americans can learn from this earlier experience, guarding against identity-based discrimination and acknowledging and remembering the grief and loss fellow citizens suffered.

  15. Evidence of cross-reactive immunity to 2009 pandemic influenza A virus in workers seropositive to swine H1N1 influenza viruses circulating in Italy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria A De Marco

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Pigs play a key epidemiologic role in the ecology of influenza A viruses (IAVs emerging from animal hosts and transmitted to humans. Between 2008 and 2010, we investigated the health risk of occupational exposure to swine influenza viruses (SIVs in Italy, during the emergence and spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic (H1N1pdm virus. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Serum samples from 123 swine workers (SWs and 379 control subjects (Cs, not exposed to pig herds, were tested by haemagglutination inhibition (HI assay against selected SIVs belonging to H1N1 (swH1N1, H1N2 (swH1N2 and H3N2 (swH3N2 subtypes circulating in the study area. Potential cross-reactivity between swine and human IAVs was evaluated by testing sera against recent, pandemic and seasonal, human influenza viruses (H1N1 and H3N2 antigenic subtypes. Samples tested against swH1N1 and H1N1pdm viruses were categorized into sera collected before (n. 84 SWs; n. 234 Cs and after (n. 39 SWs; n. 145 Cs the pandemic peak. HI-antibody titers ≥10 were considered positive. In both pre-pandemic and post-pandemic peak subperiods, SWs showed significantly higher swH1N1 seroprevalences when compared with Cs (52.4% vs. 4.7% and 59% vs. 9.7%, respectively. Comparable HI results were obtained against H1N1pdm antigen (58.3% vs. 7.7% and 59% vs. 31.7%, respectively. No differences were found between HI seroreactivity detected in SWs and Cs against swH1N2 (33.3% vs. 40.4% and swH3N2 (51.2 vs. 55.4% viruses. These findings indicate the occurrence of swH1N1 transmission from pigs to Italian SWs. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: A significant increase of H1N1pdm seroprevalences occurred in the post-pandemic peak subperiod in the Cs (p<0.001 whereas SWs showed no differences between the two subperiods, suggesting a possible occurrence of cross-protective immunity related to previous swH1N1 infections. These data underline the importance of risk assessment and occupational health surveillance activities aimed

  16. Statistical estimates of absenteeism attributable to seasonal and pandemic influenza from the Canadian Labour Force Survey

    OpenAIRE

    Zheng Hui; Schanzer Dena L; Gilmore Jason

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background As many respiratory viruses are responsible for influenza like symptoms, accurate measures of the disease burden are not available and estimates are generally based on statistical methods. The objective of this study was to estimate absenteeism rates and hours lost due to seasonal influenza and compare these estimates with estimates of absenteeism attributable to the two H1N1 pandemic waves that occurred in 2009. Methods Key absenteeism variables were extracted from Statis...

  17. Military and Military Medical Support in Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI/H5N1) Pandemic Scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taleski, V.

    2007-01-01

    Avian influenza (Bird flu) is a highly contagious viral disease affecting mainly chickens, turkeys, ducks, other birds and mammals. Reservoirs for HPAI /H5N1 virus are shore birds and waterfowl (asymptomatic, excrete virus in feces for a long periods of time), live bird markets and commercial swine facilities. Virus tends to cycle between pigs and birds. HPAI (H5N1) virus is on every 'top ten' list available for potential agricultural bio-weapon agents. The threat of a HPAI/H5N1 pandemic is a definitively global phenomenon and the response must be global. A number of National plans led to various measures of preventing and dealing with epidemics/pandemics. Lessons learned form the pandemic history indicated essential role of military and military medical support to civil authorities in a crisis situation. Based on International Military Medical Avian Influenza Pandemic workshop (Vienna 2006), an expected scenario would involve 30-50% outpatients, 20-30% hospital admission, 2-3% deaths, 10-20% complicated cases. Activities of civil hospital may be reduced by 50%. Benefits of military support could be in: Transportation of patients (primarily by air); Mass vaccination and provision of all other preventive measures (masks, Tamiflu); Restriction of movements; Infection control of health care facilities; Field hospitals for triage and quarantine, military barracks to treat milder cases and military hospitals for severe cases; Deal with corpses; Stockpiling (vaccines, antiviral, antibiotics, protective equipment, supplies); Training; Laboratories; Ensure public safety, etc. With the aim of minimizing the risk of a pandemic spread by means of rapid and uncomplicated cooperation, an early warning system has to be established to improve surveillance, improve international contacts (WHO, ECDC, CDC), establish Platform for sharing information, close contacts of national and international military and civilian surveillance networks and databases, cooperation between military

  18. Analysis of the effectiveness of interventions used during the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milne George J

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Following the emergence of the A/H1N1 2009 influenza pandemic, public health interventions were activated to lessen its potential impact. Computer modelling and simulation can be used to determine the potential effectiveness of the social distancing and antiviral drug therapy interventions that were used at the early stages of the pandemic, providing guidance to public health policy makers as to intervention strategies in future pandemics involving a highly pathogenic influenza strain. Methods An individual-based model of a real community with a population of approximately 30,000 was used to determine the impact of alternative interventions strategies, including those used in the initial stages of the 2009 pandemic. Different interventions, namely school closure and antiviral strategies, were simulated in isolation and in combination to form different plausible scenarios. We simulated epidemics with reproduction numbers R0of 1.5, which aligns with estimates in the range 1.4-1.6 determined from the initial outbreak in Mexico. Results School closure of 1 week was determined to have minimal effect on reducing overall illness attack rate. Antiviral drug treatment of 50% of symptomatic cases reduced the attack rate by 6.5%, from an unmitigated rate of 32.5% to 26%. Treatment of diagnosed individuals combined with additional household prophylaxis reduced the final attack rate to 19%. Further extension of prophylaxis to close contacts (in schools and workplaces further reduced the overall attack rate to 13% and reduced the peak daily illness rate from 120 to 22 per 10,000 individuals. We determined the size of antiviral stockpile required; the ratio of the required number of antiviral courses to population was 13% for the treatment-only strategy, 25% for treatment and household prophylaxis and 40% for treatment, household and extended prophylaxis. Additional simulations suggest that coupling school closure with the antiviral

  19. Modeling uncertainties in workforce disruptions from influenza pandemics using dynamic input-output analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Haimar, Amine; Santos, Joost R

    2014-03-01

    Influenza pandemic is a serious disaster that can pose significant disruptions to the workforce and associated economic sectors. This article examines the impact of influenza pandemic on workforce availability within an interdependent set of economic sectors. We introduce a simulation model based on the dynamic input-output model to capture the propagation of pandemic consequences through the National Capital Region (NCR). The analysis conducted in this article is based on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic data. Two metrics were used to assess the impacts of the influenza pandemic on the economic sectors: (i) inoperability, which measures the percentage gap between the as-planned output and the actual output of a sector, and (ii) economic loss, which quantifies the associated monetary value of the degraded output. The inoperability and economic loss metrics generate two different rankings of the critical economic sectors. Results show that most of the critical sectors in terms of inoperability are sectors that are related to hospitals and health-care providers. On the other hand, most of the sectors that are critically ranked in terms of economic loss are sectors with significant total production outputs in the NCR such as federal government agencies. Therefore, policy recommendations relating to potential mitigation and recovery strategies should take into account the balance between the inoperability and economic loss metrics. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. Mortality attributable to pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in San Luis Potosí, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comas‐García, Andreu; García‐Sepúlveda, Christian A.; Méndez‐de Lira, José J.; Aranda‐Romo, Saray; Hernández‐Salinas, Alba E.; Noyola, Daniel E.

    2010-01-01

    Please cite this paper as: Comas‐García et al. (2011) Mortality attributable to pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in San Luis Potosí, Mexico. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 5(2), 76–82. Background  Acute respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Starting in 2009, pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 virus has become one of the leading respiratory pathogens worldwide. However, the overall impact of this virus as a cause of mortality has not been clearly defined. Objectives  To determine the impact of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 on mortality in a Mexican population. Methods  We assessed the impact of pandemic influenza virus on mortality during the first and second outbreaks in San Luis Potosí, Mexico, and compared it to mortality associated with seasonal influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) during the previous winter seasons. Results  We estimated that, on average, 8·1% of all deaths that occurred during the 2003–2009 seasons were attributable to influenza and RSV. During the first pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 outbreak, there was an increase in mortality in persons 5–59 years of age, but not during the second outbreak (Fall of 2009). Overall, pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 outbreaks had similar effects on mortality to those associated with seasonal influenza virus epidemics. Conclusions  The impact of influenza A(H1N1) 2009 virus on mortality during the first year of the pandemic was similar to that observed for seasonal influenza. The establishment of real‐time surveillance systems capable of integrating virological, morbidity, and mortality data may result in the timely identification of outbreaks so as to allow for the institution of appropriate control measures to reduce the impact of emerging pathogens on the population. PMID:21306570

  1. Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 virus incursion into Africa: countries ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 virus incursion into Africa: countries, hosts and ... features are important for planning control measures between countries and to ... in humans, infections in pigs earlier reported in America, Europe and Asia were ...

  2. Incorporating Research and Evaluation into Pandemic Influenza Vaccination Preparedness and Response

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2014-03-27

    Dr. Tom Shimabukuro, a medical officer at CDC, discusses Pandemic Influenza Vaccination Preparedness and Response.  Created: 3/27/2014 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 3/27/2014.

  3. Public perceptions of pandemic influenza resource allocation: A deliberativeforum using Grid/Group analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Docter, S.P.; Street, J.; Braunack-Mayer, A.J.; van der Wilt, G.J.

    2011-01-01

    The emergence of virulent avian influenza A subtypes with potential to evolve into novel human subtypes prompted directives from the World Health Organisation recommending that countries prepare for a pandemic. In response the Australian government developed the Australian Health Management Plan for

  4. Knowledge about Pandemic Influenza in Healthcare and Non-Healthcare Students in London

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purssell, Edward; While, Alison

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the knowledge of university students regarding pandemic and seasonal influenza. Design: Online questionnaire-based survey of undergraduate and postgraduate students, including those on nursing, medical, other health and non-health related courses. Method: The sample was recruited using the university email system, and the…

  5. Coordination Costs for School-Located Influenza Vaccination Clinics, Maine, 2009 H1N1 Pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asay, Garrett R. Beeler; Cho, Bo-Hyun; Lorick, Suchita A.; Tipton, Meredith L.; Dube, Nancy L.; Messonnier, Mark L.

    2012-01-01

    School nurses played a key role in Maine's school-located influenza vaccination (SLV) clinics during the 2009-2010 pandemic season. The objective of this study was to determine, from the school district perspective, the labor hours and costs associated with outside-clinic coordination activities (OCA). The authors defined OCA as labor hours spent…

  6. The pandemic potential of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanner, W D; Toth, D J A; Gundlapalli, A V

    2015-12-01

    In March 2013 the first cases of human avian influenza A(H7N9) were reported to the World Health Organization. Since that time, over 650 cases have been reported. Infections are associated with considerable morbidity and mortality, particularly within certain demographic groups. This rapid increase in cases over a brief time period is alarming and has raised concerns about the pandemic potential of the H7N9 virus. Three major factors influence the pandemic potential of an influenza virus: (1) its ability to cause human disease, (2) the immunity of the population to the virus, and (3) the transmission potential of the virus. This paper reviews what is currently known about each of these factors with respect to avian influenza A(H7N9). Currently, sustained human-to-human transmission of H7N9 has not been reported; however, population immunity to the virus is considered very low, and the virus has significant ability to cause human disease. Several statistical and geographical modelling studies have estimated and predicted the spread of the H7N9 virus in humans and avian species, and some have identified potential risk factors associated with disease transmission. Additionally, assessment tools have been developed to evaluate the pandemic potential of H7N9 and other influenza viruses. These tools could also hypothetically be used to monitor changes in the pandemic potential of a particular virus over time.

  7. Prenatal exposure to the 1957 influenza pandemic and non-affective psychosis in The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Selten, JP; Brown, AS; Moons, KGM; Slaets, JPJ; Susser, ES; Kahn, RS

    1999-01-01

    Second-trimester exposure to the 1957 A2 influenza pandemic is a controversial risk factor for schizophrenia. Two earlier studies of the Dutch psychiatric registry failed to find an increased risk for exposed subjects, but diagnostic misclassification within the spectrum of non-affective psychoses

  8. Healthcare workers' attitudes to working during pandemic influenza: a qualitative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petts Judith I

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Healthcare workers (HCWs will play a key role in any response to pandemic influenza, and the UK healthcare system's ability to cope during an influenza pandemic will depend, to a large extent, on the number of HCWs who are able and willing to work through the crisis. UK emergency planning will be improved if planners have a better understanding of the reasons UK HCWs may have for their absenteeism, and what might motivate them to work during an influenza pandemic. This paper reports the results of a qualitative study that explored UK HCWs' views (n = 64 about working during an influenza pandemic, in order to identify factors that might influence their willingness and ability to work and to identify potential sources of any perceived duty on HCWs to work. Methods A qualitative study, using focus groups (n = 9 and interviews (n = 5. Results HCWs across a range of roles and grades tended to feel motivated by a sense of obligation to work through an influenza pandemic. A number of significant barriers that may prevent them from doing so were also identified. Perceived barriers to the ability to work included being ill oneself, transport difficulties, and childcare responsibilities. Perceived barriers to the willingness to work included: prioritising the wellbeing of family members; a lack of trust in, and goodwill towards, the NHS; a lack of information about the risks and what is expected of them during the crisis; fear of litigation; and the feeling that employers do not take the needs of staff seriously. Barriers to ability and barriers to willingness, however, are difficult to separate out. Conclusion Although our participants tended to feel a general obligation to work during an influenza pandemic, there are barriers to working, which, if generalisable, may significantly reduce the NHS workforce during a pandemic. The barriers identified are both barriers to willingness and to ability. This suggests that pandemic planning

  9. Seasonal and pandemic human influenza viruses attach better to human upper respiratory tract epithelium than avian influenza viruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Riel, Debby; den Bakker, Michael A; Leijten, Lonneke M E; Chutinimitkul, Salin; Munster, Vincent J; de Wit, Emmie; Rimmelzwaan, Guus F; Fouchier, Ron A M; Osterhaus, Albert D M E; Kuiken, Thijs

    2010-04-01

    Influenza viruses vary markedly in their efficiency of human-to-human transmission. This variation has been speculated to be determined in part by the tropism of influenza virus for the human upper respiratory tract. To study this tropism, we determined the pattern of virus attachment by virus histochemistry of three human and three avian influenza viruses in human nasal septum, conchae, nasopharynx, paranasal sinuses, and larynx. We found that the human influenza viruses-two seasonal influenza viruses and pandemic H1N1 virus-attached abundantly to ciliated epithelial cells and goblet cells throughout the upper respiratory tract. In contrast, the avian influenza viruses, including the highly pathogenic H5N1 virus, attached only rarely to epithelial cells or goblet cells. Both human and avian viruses attached occasionally to cells of the submucosal glands. The pattern of virus attachment was similar among the different sites of the human upper respiratory tract for each virus tested. We conclude that influenza viruses that are transmitted efficiently among humans attach abundantly to human upper respiratory tract, whereas inefficiently transmitted influenza viruses attach rarely. These results suggest that the ability of an influenza virus to attach to human upper respiratory tract is a critical factor for efficient transmission in the human population.

  10. Health system resource gaps and associated mortality from pandemic influenza across six Asian territories.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James W Rudge

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Southeast Asia has been the focus of considerable investment in pandemic influenza preparedness. Given the wide variation in socio-economic conditions, health system capacity across the region is likely to impact to varying degrees on pandemic mitigation operations. We aimed to estimate and compare the resource gaps, and potential mortalities associated with those gaps, for responding to pandemic influenza within and between six territories in Asia. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected health system resource data from Cambodia, Indonesia (Jakarta and Bali, Lao PDR, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. We applied a mathematical transmission model to simulate a "mild-to-moderate" pandemic influenza scenario to estimate resource needs, gaps, and attributable mortalities at province level within each territory. The results show that wide variations exist in resource capacities between and within the six territories, with substantial mortalities predicted as a result of resource gaps (referred to here as "avoidable" mortalities, particularly in poorer areas. Severe nationwide shortages of mechanical ventilators were estimated to be a major cause of avoidable mortalities in all territories except Taiwan. Other resources (oseltamivir, hospital beds and human resources are inequitably distributed within countries. Estimates of resource gaps and avoidable mortalities were highly sensitive to model parameters defining the transmissibility and clinical severity of the pandemic scenario. However, geographic patterns observed within and across territories remained similar for the range of parameter values explored. CONCLUSIONS: The findings have important implications for where (both geographically and in terms of which resource types investment is most needed, and the potential impact of resource mobilization for mitigating the disease burden of an influenza pandemic. Effective mobilization of resources across administrative boundaries could go some way

  11. Information technology systems for critical care triage and medical response during an influenza pandemic: a review of current systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandayrel, Kristofer; Lapinsky, Stephen; Christian, Michael

    2013-06-01

    To assess local, state, federal, and global pandemic influenza preparedness by identifying pandemic plans at the local, state, federal, and global levels, and to identify any information technology (IT) systems in these plans to support critical care triage during an influenza pandemic in the Canadian province of Ontario. The authors used advanced MEDLINE and Google search strategies and conducted a comprehensive review of key pandemic influenza Web sites. Descriptive data extraction and analysis for IT systems were conducted on all of the included pandemic plans. A total of 155 pandemic influenza plans were reviewed: 29 local, 62 state, 63 federal, and 1 global. We found 70 plans that examined IT systems (10 local, 33 state, 26 federal, 1 global), and 85 that did not (19 local, 29 state, 37 federal). Of the 70 plans, 64 described surveillance systems (10 local, 32 state, 21 federal, 1 global), 2 described patient data collection systems (1 state, 1 federal); 4 described other types of IT systems (4 federal), and none were intended for triage. Although several pandemic plans have been drafted, the majority are high-level general documents that do not describe IT systems. The plans that discuss IT systems focus strongly on surveillance, which fails to recognize the needs of a health care system responding to an influenza pandemic. The best examples of the types of IT systems to guide decision making during a pandemic were found in the Kansas and the Czech Republic pandemic plans, because these systems were designed to collect both patient and surveillance data. Although Ontario has yet to develop such an IT system, several IT systems are in place that could be leveraged to support critical care triage and medical response during an influenza pandemic.

  12. [Estimation of the excess death associated with influenza pandemics and epidemics in Japan after world war II: relation with pandemics and the vaccination system].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohmi, Kenichi; Marui, Eiji

    2011-10-01

    To estimate the excess death associated with influenza pandemics and epidemics in Japan after World War II, and to reexamine the relationship between the excess death and the vaccination system in Japan. Using the Japanese national vital statistics data for 1952-2009, we specified months with influenza epidemics, monthly mortality rates and the seasonal index for 1952-74 and for 1975-2009. Then we calculated excess deaths of each month from the observed number of deaths and the 95% range of expected deaths. Lastly we calculated age-adjusted excess death rates using the 1985 model population of Japan. The total number of excess deaths for 1952-2009 was 687,279 (95% range, 384,149-970,468), 12,058 (95% range, 6,739-17,026) per year. The total number of excess deaths in 6 pandemic years of 1957-58, 58-59, 1968-69, 69-70, 77-78 and 78-79, was 95,904, while that in 51 'non-pandemic' years was 591,376, 6.17 fold larger than pandemic years. The average number of excess deaths for pandemic years was 23,976, nearly equal to that for 'non-pandemic' years, 23,655. At the beginning of pandemics, 1957-58, 1968-69, 1969-70, the proportion of those aged pandemic' years. In the 1970s and 1980s, when the vaccination program for schoolchildren was mandatory in Japan on the basis of the "Fukumi thesis", age-adjusted average excess mortality rates were relatively low, with an average of 6.17 per hundred thousand. In the 1990s, when group vaccination was discontinued, age-adjusted excess mortality rose up to 9.42, only to drop again to 2.04 when influenza vaccination was made available to the elderly in the 2000s, suggesting that the vaccination of Japanese children prevented excess deaths from influenza pandemics and epidemics. Moreover, in the age group under 65, average excess mortality rates were low in the 1970s and 1980s rather than in the 2000s, which shows that the "Social Defensive" schoolchildren vaccination program in the 1970s and 1980s was more effective than the

  13. Anti-pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus potential of catechin and gallic acid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    You, Huey-Ling; Huang, Chao-Chun; Chen, Chung-Jen; Chang, Cheng-Chin; Liao, Pei-Lin; Huang, Sheng-Teng

    2018-05-01

    The pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus has spread worldwide and infected a large proportion of the human population. Discovery of new and effective drugs for the treatment of influenza is a crucial issue for the global medical community. According to our previous study, TSL-1, a fraction of the aqueous extract from the tender leaf of Toonasinensis, has demonstrated antiviral activities against pandemic influenza A (H1N1) through the down-regulation of adhesion molecules and chemokine to prevent viral attachment. The aim of the present study was to identify the active compounds in TSL-1 which exert anti-influenza A (H1N1) virus effects. XTT assay was used to detect the cell viability. Meanwhile, the inhibitory effect on the pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus was analyzed by observing plaque formation, qRT-PCR, neuraminidase activity, and immunofluorescence staining of influenza A-specific glycoprotein. Both catechin and gallic acid were found to be potent inhibitors in terms of influenza virus mRNA replication and MDCK plaque formation. Additionally, both compounds inhibited neuraminidase activities and viral glycoprotein. The 50% effective inhibition concentration (EC 50 ) of catechin and gallic acid for the influenza A (H1N1) virus were 18.4 μg/mL and 2.6 μg/mL, respectively; whereas the 50% cytotoxic concentrations (CC 50 ) of catechin and gallic acid were >100 μg/mL and 22.1 μg/mL, respectively. Thus, the selectivity indexes (SI) of catechin and gallic acid were >5.6 and 22.1, respectively. The present study demonstrates that catechin might be a safe reagent for long-term use to prevent influenza A (H1N1) virus infection; whereas gallic acid might be a sensitive reagent to inhibit influenza virus infection. We conclude that these two phyto-chemicals in TSL-1 are responsible for exerting anti-pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus effects. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Taiwan LLC.

  14. A small community model for the transmission of infectious diseases: comparison of school closure as an intervention in individual-based models of an influenza pandemic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George J Milne

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In the absence of other evidence, modelling has been used extensively to help policy makers plan for a potential future influenza pandemic. METHOD: We have constructed an individual based model of a small community in the developed world with detail down to exact household structure obtained from census collection datasets and precise simulation of household demographics, movement within the community and individual contact patterns. We modelled the spread of pandemic influenza in this community and the effect on daily and final attack rates of four social distancing measures: school closure, increased case isolation, workplace non-attendance and community contact reduction. We compared the modelled results of final attack rates in the absence of any interventions and the effect of school closure as a single intervention with other published individual based models of pandemic influenza in the developed world. RESULTS: We showed that published individual based models estimate similar final attack rates over a range of values for R(0 in a pandemic where no interventions have been implemented; that multiple social distancing measures applied early and continuously can be very effective in interrupting transmission of the pandemic virus for R(0 values up to 2.5; and that different conclusions reached on the simulated benefit of school closure in published models appear to result from differences in assumptions about the timing and duration of school closure and flow-on effects on other social contacts resulting from school closure. CONCLUSION: Models of the spread and control of pandemic influenza have the potential to assist policy makers with decisions about which control strategies to adopt. However, attention needs to be given by policy makers to the assumptions underpinning both the models and the control strategies examined.

  15. The threat of pandemic influenza: are we ready? : workshop summary

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Knobler, Stacey

    2005-01-01

    .... Moreover, recent problems with the availability and strain-specificity of vaccine for annual flu epidemics in some countries and the rise of pandemic strains of avian flu in disparate geographic...

  16. Response to the 2009-H1N1 influenza pandemic in the Mekong Basin: surveys of country health leaders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dausey David J

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Soon after the 2009-H1N1 virus emerged as the first influenza pandemic in 41 years, countries had an early opportunity to test their preparedness plans, protocols and procedures, including their cooperation with other countries in responding to the global pandemic threat. The Mekong Basin Disease Surveillance cooperation (MBDS comprises six countries - Cambodia, China (Yunnan and Guangxi Provinces, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam - that formally organized themselves in 2001 to cooperate in disease surveillance and control. The pandemic presented an opportunity to assess their responses in light of their individual and joint planning. We conducted two surveys of the MBDS leadership from each country, early during the pandemic and shortly after it ended. Results On average, participants rated their country's pandemic response performance as good in both 2009 and 2010. Post-pandemic (2010, perceived performance quality was best for facility-based interventions (overall mean of 4.2 on a scale from 1 = poor to 5 = excellent, followed by surveillance and information sharing (4.1, risk communications (3.9 and disease prevention and control in communities (3.7. Performance was consistently rated as good or excellent for use of hotlines for case reporting (2010 mean of 4.4 and of selected facility-based interventions (each with a 2010 mean of 4.4: using hospital admission criteria, preparing or using isolation areas, using PPE for healthcare workers and using antiviral drugs for treatment. In at least half the countries, the post-pandemic ratings were lower than initial 2009 assessments for performance related to surveillance, facility-based interventions and risk communications. Conclusions MBDS health leaders perceived their pandemic responses effective in areas previously considered problematic. Most felt that MBDS cooperation helped drive and thus added value to their efforts. Surveillance capacity

  17. Sunspot activity and influenza pandemics: a statistical assessment of the purported association.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Towers, S

    2017-10-01

    Since 1978, a series of papers in the literature have claimed to find a significant association between sunspot activity and the timing of influenza pandemics. This paper examines these analyses, and attempts to recreate the three most recent statistical analyses by Ertel (1994), Tapping et al. (2001), and Yeung (2006), which all have purported to find a significant relationship between sunspot numbers and pandemic influenza. As will be discussed, each analysis had errors in the data. In addition, in each analysis arbitrary selections or assumptions were also made, and the authors did not assess the robustness of their analyses to changes in those arbitrary assumptions. Varying the arbitrary assumptions to other, equally valid, assumptions negates the claims of significance. Indeed, an arbitrary selection made in one of the analyses appears to have resulted in almost maximal apparent significance; changing it only slightly yields a null result. This analysis applies statistically rigorous methodology to examine the purported sunspot/pandemic link, using more statistically powerful un-binned analysis methods, rather than relying on arbitrarily binned data. The analyses are repeated using both the Wolf and Group sunspot numbers. In all cases, no statistically significant evidence of any association was found. However, while the focus in this particular analysis was on the purported relationship of influenza pandemics to sunspot activity, the faults found in the past analyses are common pitfalls; inattention to analysis reproducibility and robustness assessment are common problems in the sciences, that are unfortunately not noted often enough in review.

  18. Relevance of workplace social mixing during influenza pandemics: an experimental modelling study of workplace cultures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timpka, T; Eriksson, H; Holm, E; Strömgren, M; Ekberg, J; Spreco, A; Dahlström, Ö

    2016-07-01

    Workplaces are one of the most important regular meeting places in society. The aim of this study was to use simulation experiments to examine the impact of different workplace cultures on influenza dissemination during pandemics. The impact is investigated by experiments with defined social-mixing patterns at workplaces using semi-virtual models based on authentic sociodemographic and geographical data from a North European community (population 136 000). A simulated pandemic outbreak was found to affect 33% of the total population in the community with the reference academic-creative workplace culture; virus transmission at the workplace accounted for 10·6% of the cases. A model with a prevailing industrial-administrative workplace culture generated 11% lower incidence than the reference model, while the model with a self-employed workplace culture (also corresponding to a hypothetical scenario with all workplaces closed) produced 20% fewer cases. The model representing an academic-creative workplace culture with restricted workplace interaction generated 12% lower cumulative incidence compared to the reference model. The results display important theoretical associations between workplace social-mixing cultures and community-level incidence rates during influenza pandemics. Social interaction patterns at workplaces should be taken into consideration when analysing virus transmission patterns during influenza pandemics.

  19. The potential impact of the next influenza pandemic on a national primary care medical workforce

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Crampton Peter

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Another influenza pandemic is all but inevitable. We estimated its potential impact on the primary care medical workforce in New Zealand, so that planning could mitigate the disruption from the pandemic and similar challenges. Methods The model in the "FluAid" software (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, CDC, Atlanta was applied to the New Zealand primary care medical workforce (i.e., general practitioners. Results At its peak (week 4 the pandemic would lead to 1.2% to 2.7% loss of medical work time, using conservative baseline assumptions. Most workdays (88% would be lost due to illness, followed by hospitalisation (8%, and then premature death (4%. Inputs for a "more severe" scenario included greater health effects and time spent caring for sick relatives. For this scenario, 9% of medical workdays would be lost in the peak week, and 3% over a more compressed six-week period of the first pandemic wave. As with the base case, most (64% of lost workdays would be due to illness, followed by caring for others (31%, hospitalisation (4%, and then premature death (1%. Conclusion Preparedness planning for future influenza pandemics must consider the impact on this medical workforce and incorporate strategies to minimise this impact, including infection control measures, well-designed protocols, and improved health sector surge capacity.

  20. The potential impact of the next influenza pandemic on a national primary care medical workforce.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Nick; Baker, Michael; Crampton, Peter; Mansoor, Osman

    2005-08-11

    Another influenza pandemic is all but inevitable. We estimated its potential impact on the primary care medical workforce in New Zealand, so that planning could mitigate the disruption from the pandemic and similar challenges. The model in the "FluAid" software (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, CDC, Atlanta) was applied to the New Zealand primary care medical workforce (i.e., general practitioners). At its peak (week 4) the pandemic would lead to 1.2% to 2.7% loss of medical work time, using conservative baseline assumptions. Most workdays (88%) would be lost due to illness, followed by hospitalisation (8%), and then premature death (4%). Inputs for a "more severe" scenario included greater health effects and time spent caring for sick relatives. For this scenario, 9% of medical workdays would be lost in the peak week, and 3% over a more compressed six-week period of the first pandemic wave. As with the base case, most (64%) of lost workdays would be due to illness, followed by caring for others (31%), hospitalisation (4%), and then premature death (1%). Preparedness planning for future influenza pandemics must consider the impact on this medical workforce and incorporate strategies to minimise this impact, including infection control measures, well-designed protocols, and improved health sector surge capacity.

  1. Responding to vaccine safety signals during pandemic influenza: a modeling study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judith C Maro

    Full Text Available Managing emerging vaccine safety signals during an influenza pandemic is challenging. Federal regulators must balance vaccine risks against benefits while maintaining public confidence in the public health system.We developed a multi-criteria decision analysis model to explore regulatory decision-making in the context of emerging vaccine safety signals during a pandemic. We simulated vaccine safety surveillance system capabilities and used an age-structured compartmental model to develop potential pandemic scenarios. We used an expert-derived multi-attribute utility function to evaluate potential regulatory responses by combining four outcome measures into a single measure of interest: 1 expected vaccination benefit from averted influenza; 2 expected vaccination risk from vaccine-associated febrile seizures; 3 expected vaccination risk from vaccine-associated Guillain-Barre Syndrome; and 4 expected change in vaccine-seeking behavior in future influenza seasons.Over multiple scenarios, risk communication, with or without suspension of vaccination of high-risk persons, were the consistently preferred regulatory responses over no action or general suspension when safety signals were detected during a pandemic influenza. On average, the expert panel valued near-term vaccine-related outcomes relative to long-term projected outcomes by 3:1. However, when decision-makers had minimal ability to influence near-term outcomes, the response was selected primarily by projected impacts on future vaccine-seeking behavior.The selected regulatory response depends on how quickly a vaccine safety signal is identified relative to the peak of the pandemic and the initiation of vaccination. Our analysis suggested two areas for future investment: efforts to improve the size and timeliness of the surveillance system and behavioral research to understand changes in vaccine-seeking behavior.

  2. Transmission characteristics of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic: comparison of 8 Southern hemisphere countries.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lulla Opatowski

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available While in Northern hemisphere countries, the pandemic H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm was introduced outside of the typical influenza season, Southern hemisphere countries experienced a single wave of transmission during their 2009 winter season. This provides a unique opportunity to compare the spread of a single virus in different countries and study the factors influencing its transmission. Here, we estimate and compare transmission characteristics of H1N1pdm for eight Southern hemisphere countries/states: Argentina, Australia, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, South Africa and Victoria (Australia. Weekly incidence of cases and age-distribution of cumulative cases were extracted from public reports of countries' surveillance systems. Estimates of the reproduction numbers, R(0, empirically derived from the country-epidemics' early exponential phase, were positively associated with the proportion of children in the populations (p = 0.004. To explore the role of demography in explaining differences in transmission intensity, we then fitted a dynamic age-structured model of influenza transmission to available incidence data for each country independently, and for all the countries simultaneously. Posterior median estimates of R₀ ranged 1.2-1.8 for the country-specific fits, and 1.29-1.47 for the global fits. Corresponding estimates for overall attack-rate were in the range 20-50%. All model fits indicated a significant decrease in susceptibility to infection with age. These results confirm the transmissibility of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus was relatively low compared with past pandemics. The pattern of age-dependent susceptibility found confirms that older populations had substantial--though partial--pre-existing immunity, presumably due to exposure to heterologous influenza strains. Our analysis indicates that between-country-differences in transmission were at least partly due to differences in population demography.

  3. Distribution of selected healthcare resources for influenza pandemic response in Cambodia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwanke Khilji, Sara U; Rudge, James W; Drake, Tom; Chavez, Irwin; Borin, Khieu; Touch, Sok; Coker, Richard

    2013-10-04

    Human influenza infection poses a serious public health threat in Cambodia, a country at risk for the emergence and spread of novel influenza viruses with pandemic potential. Prior pandemics demonstrated the adverse impact of influenza on poor communities in developing countries. Investigation of healthcare resource distribution can inform decisions regarding resource mobilization and investment for pandemic mitigation. A health facility survey performed across Cambodia obtained data on availability of healthcare resources important for pandemic influenza response. Focusing on five key resources considered most necessary for treating severe influenza (inpatient beds, doctors, nurses, oseltamivir, and ventilators), resource distributions were analyzed at the Operational District (OD) and Province levels, refining data analysis from earlier studies. Resources were stratified by respondent type (hospital vs. District Health Office [DHO]). A summary index of distribution inequality was calculated using the Gini coefficient. Indices for local spatial autocorrelation were measured at the OD level using geographical information system (GIS) analysis. Finally, a potential link between socioeconomic status and resource distribution was explored by mapping resource densities against poverty rates. Gini coefficient calculation revealed variable inequality in distribution of the five key resources at the Province and OD levels. A greater percentage of the population resides in areas of relative under-supply (28.5%) than over-supply (21.3%). Areas with more resources per capita showed significant clustering in central Cambodia while areas with fewer resources clustered in the northern and western provinces. Hospital-based inpatient beds, doctors, and nurses were most heavily concentrated in areas of the country with the lowest poverty rates; however, beds and nurses in Non-Hospital Medical Facilities (NHMF) showed increasing concentrations at higher levels of poverty. There is

  4. Heterogeneous virulence of pandemic 2009 influenza H1N1 virus in mice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farooqui Amber

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Understanding the pathogenesis of influenza infection is a key factor leading to the prevention and control of future outbreaks. Pandemic 2009 Influenza H1N1 infection, although frequently mild, led to a severe and fatal form of disease in certain cases that make its virulence nature debatable. Much effort has been made toward explaining the determinants of disease severity; however, no absolute reason has been established. Results This study presents the heterogeneous virulence of clinically similar strains of pandemic 2009 influenza virus in human alveolar adenocarcinoma cells and mice. The viruses were obtained from patients who were admitted in a local hospital in China with a similar course of infection and recovered. The A/Nanchang/8002/2009 and A/Nanchang/8011/2009 viruses showed efficient replication and high lethality in mice while infection with A/Nanchang/8008/2009 was not lethal with impaired viral replication, minimal pathology and modest proinflammatory activity in lungs. Sequence analysis displayed prominent differences between polymerase subunits (PB2 and PA of viral genomes that might correlate with their different phenotypic behavior. Conclusions The study confirms that biological heterogeneity, linked with the extent of viral replication, exists among pandemic H1N1 strains that may serve as a benchmark for future investigations on influenza pathogenesis.

  5. Death from 1918 pandemic influenza during the First World War: a perspective from personal and anecdotal evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wever, Peter C; van Bergen, Leo

    2014-09-01

    The Meuse-Argonne offensive, a decisive battle during the First World War, is the largest frontline commitment in American military history involving 1.2 million U.S. troops. With over 26,000 deaths among American soldiers, the offensive is considered "America's deadliest battle". The Meuse-Argonne offensive coincided with the highly fatal second wave of the influenza pandemic in 1918. In Europe and in U.S. Army training camps, 1918 pandemic influenza killed around 45,000 American soldiers making it questionable which battle should be regarded "America's deadliest". The origin of the influenza pandemic has been inextricably linked with the men who occupied the military camps and trenches during the First World War. The disease had a profound impact, both for the military apparatus and for the individual soldier. It struck all the armies and might have claimed toward 100 000 fatalities among soldiers overall during the conflict while rendering millions ineffective. Yet, it remains unclear whether 1918 pandemic influenza had an impact on the course of the First World War. Still, even until this day, virological and bacteriological analysis of preserved archived remains of soldiers that succumbed to 1918 pandemic influenza has important implications for preparedness for future pandemics. These aspects are reviewed here in a context of citations, images, and documents illustrating the tragic events of 1918. © 2014 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Assessing Healthcare Utilization for Influenza-like Illness at an Emergency Department and a Student Health Service during the 2009–2010 H1N1 Pandemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruchi Bhandari

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Estimates of healthcare utilization during an influenza pandemic are needed in order to plan for the allocation of staff and resources. The aim of this study was to assess the number, age, and arrival time of patients with influenza-like-illness (ILI, and associations between their symptoms during the 2009–2010 H1N1 pandemic. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of electronic health records from the student health service (SHS and an emergency department (ED in Morgantown, West Virginia, between January 2009 and December 2010. During the 2009–2010 H1N1 pandemic, patient arrivals at SHS and ED varied over the week. SHS patients arrived early in the week and primarily in the afternoon. ED patient arrivals were more evenly distributed, with busier evenings and weekends. Those with fever were more likely to experience cough, sore throat, vomiting/nausea, chills, congestion, headache, and body-ache. These results can assist health professionals in preparing for an influenza pandemic.

  7. Qualitative motivators and barriers to pandemic vs. seasonal influenza vaccination among healthcare workers: a content analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prematunge, Chatura; Corace, Kimberly; McCarthy, Anne; Nair, Rama C; Roth, Virginia; Suh, Kathryn N; Garber, Gary

    2014-12-12

    Influenza is a major concern across healthcare environments. Annual vaccination of healthcare workers (HCW) remains a key mode of influenza prevention in healthcare settings. Yet influenza vaccine coverage among HCWs continues to be below recommended targets, in pandemic and non-pandemic settings. Thus, the primary objective of this analysis is to identify motivators and barriers to pandemic (panINFLU) and seasonal influenza vaccination (sINFLU) through the qualitative analysis of HCW provided reasons driving HCW's personal vaccination decisions. Data were collected from a multi-professional sample of HCWs via a cross-sectional survey study, conducted at a tertiary-care hospital in Ontario, Canada. HCW provided and ranked qualitative reasons for personal (1) panINFLU (pH1N1) and (2) sINFLU (2008/2009 season) vaccine uptake and avoidance were used to identify key vaccination motivators and barriers through content analysis methodology. Most HCW vaccination motivators and barriers were found to be similar for panINFLU and sINFLU vaccines. Personal motivators had the greatest impact on vaccination (panINFLU 29.9% and sINFLU 33.9%). Other motivators included preventing influenza in loved ones, patients, and community, and awareness of HCW role in influenza transmission. In contrast, concerns of vaccine safety and limited HCW knowledge of influenza vaccines (panINFLU 46.2% and sINFLU 37.3%). HCW vaccination during the pandemic was motivated by panINFLU related fear, epidemiology, and workplace pro-vaccination policies. HCW perceptions of accelerated panINFLU vaccine development and vaccine safety compromises, negative views of external sources (i.e. media, pharmaceutical companies, and regulatory agencies) and pandemic management strategies were barriers specific to panINFLU vaccine. HCW panINFLU and sINFLU vaccine coverage can increase if future vaccination programs (1) highlight personal vaccination benefits (2) emphasize the impact HCW non-vaccination on family

  8. Determinants of non-vaccination against pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza in pregnant women: a prospective cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romain Freund

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In October 2009, the French government organized a national-wide, free of charge vaccination campaign against pandemic H1N1 influenza virus, especially targeting pregnant women, a high risk group for severe illness. The study objective was to evaluate pandemic flu vaccine uptake and factors associated with non-vaccination in a population of pregnant women. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In a prospective cohort conducted in 3 maternity hospitals in Paris, 882 pregnant women were randomly included between October 12, 2009 and February 3, 2010, with the aim to study characteristics of pandemic influenza during pregnancy. At inclusion, socio-demographic, medical, obstetrical factors and those associated with a higher risk of flu exposition and disease-spreading were systematically collected. Pandemic flu vaccine uptake was checked until delivery. 555 (62.9% women did not get vaccinated. Determinants associated with non-vaccination in a multivariate logistic regression were: geographic origin (Sub-Saharan African origin, adjusted Odd Ratio aOR = 5.4[2.3-12.7], North African origin, aOR = 2.5[1.3-4.7] and Asian origin, aOR = 2.1[1.7-2.6] compared to French and European origin and socio-professional categories (farmers, craftsmen and tradesmen, aOR = 2.3[2.0-2.6], intermediate professionals, aOR = 1.3[1.0-1.6], employees and manual workers, aOR = 2.5[1.4-4.4] compared to managers and intellectual professionals. The probability of not receiving pandemic flu vaccine was lower among women vaccinated against seasonal flu in the previous 5 years (aOR = 0.6[0.4-0.8] and among those who stopped smoking before or early during pregnancy (aOR = 0.6[0.4-0.8]. Number of children less than 18 years old living at home, work in contact with children or in healthcare area, or professional contact with the public, were not associated with a higher vaccine uptake. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In this cohort of pregnant women, vaccine coverage against pandemic

  9. Clinical characteristics and outcomes among pediatric patients hospitalized with pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eun Lee

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose : The purpose of this article is to describe the clinical and epidemiologic features and outcomes among children hospitalized with pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 infection. Methods : We retrospectively reviewed the charts of hospitalized pediatric patients (&lt;18 years diagnosed with pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 infection by reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction at a tertiary hospital in Seoul, Korea, between September 2009 and February 2010. Results : A total of 72 children were hospitalized with pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 infection (median age, 6.0 years; range, 2 months to 18 years. A total of 40% had at least 1 underlying medical condition, including asthma (17%, malignancies (19%, and heart diseases (17%. Of the 72 patients, 54 (76% children admitted with H1N1 infection showed radiographic alterations compatible with pneumonia. There was no significant difference in pre-existing conditions between pandemic influenza A/H1N1 infected patients with or without pneumonia. Children with pandemic influenza A/ H1N1 pneumonia were more likely to have a lower lymphocyte ratio (P=0.02, higher platelet count (P=0.02, and higher level of serum glucose (P=0.003, and more commonly presented with dyspnea than did those without pneumonia (P=0.04. Conclusion : No significant differences in age, sex, or presence of preexisting conditions were found between children hospitalized with pandemic influenza A/H1N1 H1N1 influenza infection with pneumonia and those without pneumonia. Higher leukocyte count, higher glucose level, and a lower lymphocyte ratio were associated with the development of pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza pneumonia.

  10. Adenovirus-Vectored Vaccine as a Rapid-Response Tool Against Avian Influenza Pandemic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Kampen, K. R.; Tang, D. C.

    2007-01-01

    Influenza viruses in nature undergo genetic mutation and reassortment. Three pandemics of avian influenza in man were recorded in the twentieth century. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses currently in circulation pose a threat for another world-wide pandemic, if they become transmissible from man to man. Manufacturing protective vaccines using current egg-based technology is often difficult due to the virulence of the virus and its adverse effects on the embryonating egg substrate. New technologies allow the creation of safe and protective pandemic influenza vaccines without the need for egg based substrates. These technologies allow new vaccines to be created in less than one month. Manufacturing is in tissue culture, not eggs. Vaccine can be administered to man non-invasively, without adjuvants, eliciting a rapid and protective immune response. Protective immunity against avian influenza (AI) virus was elicited in chickens by single-dose in ovo vaccination with a replication-competent adenovirus (RCA)-free human adenovirus serotype 5 (Ad5)-derived vector encoding an H5N9 avian influenza virus hemagglutinin. Vaccinated chickens were protected against both H5N1 and H5N2 HPAI virus challenges. Mass-administration of this bird flu vaccine can be streamlined with available robotic in ovo injectors. Vaccination using this vaccine could protect the the largest host reservoir (chickens) and greatly reduce the exposure of man to avian influenza. In addition, Ad5-vectored vaccines can be produced rapidly and the safety margin of a non-replicating vector is superior to that of a replicating counterpart. Furthermore, this mode of vaccination is compatible with epidemiological surveys of natural AI virus infections. In addition to mass immunization of poultry, both animals and humans have been effectively immunized by intranasal administration of Ad5-vectored influenza vaccines without any appreciable side effects, even in mice and human volunteers with

  11. Pandemic Influenza: An Analysis of State Preparedness and Response Plans

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lister, Sarah A; Stockdale, Holly

    2007-01-01

    .... Since 2002, Congress has provided funding to all U.S. states, territories, and the District of Columbia, to enhance federal, state and local preparedness for public health threats in general, and an influenza ( flu...

  12. THE A (H1N1 INFLUENZA. SYMBOLIC DIMENSIONS OF A PANDEMIC ARTEFACT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrés G. Seguel

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present paper is to present the symbolic features that are exposed by the concept of artefact in the context of a pandemic alarm, such as the A (H1N1 influenza. The symbolic qualities entailed by the notion of artefact are well-known within the Social Sciences: Sociology, Anthropology, Archaeology, and Linguistics. The artefact is basically not an object, but an action aimed at designing, simulating or creating a simile by means of material, technological or linguistic structures. The purpose of the present work is to unveil the symbolic dimensions that are activated by the A (H1N1 influenza as a Pandemic Artefact: a the assumption of separating information from matter; b the need for a material support to enable the exchange; c the sociological reflexivity of the artefact and its agency; d the arbitrariness of its social use, that detaches it from the design as intention.

  13. Efficacy of a pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus vaccine in pigs against the pandemic influenza virus is superior to commercially available swine influenza vaccines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loeffen, W L A; Stockhofe, N; Weesendorp, E; van Zoelen-Bos, D; Heutink, R; Quak, S; Goovaerts, D; Heldens, J G M; Maas, R; Moormann, R J; Koch, G

    2011-09-28

    In April 2009 a new influenza A/H1N1 strain, currently named "pandemic (H1N1) influenza 2009" (H1N1v), started the first official pandemic in humans since 1968. Several incursions of this virus in pig herds have also been reported from all over the world. Vaccination of pigs may be an option to reduce exposure of human contacts with infected pigs, thereby preventing cross-species transfer, but also to protect pigs themselves, should this virus cause damage in the pig population. Three swine influenza vaccines, two of them commercially available and one experimental, were therefore tested and compared for their efficacy against an H1N1v challenge. One of the commercial vaccines is based on an American classical H1N1 influenza strain, the other is based on a European avian H1N1 influenza strain. The experimental vaccine is based on reassortant virus NYMC X179A (containing the hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) genes of A/California/7/2009 (H1N1v) and the internal genes of A/Puerto Rico/8/34 (H1N1)). Excretion of infectious virus was reduced by 0.5-3 log(10) by the commercial vaccines, depending on vaccine and sample type. Both vaccines were able to reduce virus replication especially in the lower respiratory tract, with less pathological lesions in vaccinated and subsequently challenged pigs than in unvaccinated controls. In pigs vaccinated with the experimental vaccine, excretion levels of infectious virus in nasal and oropharyngeal swabs, were at or below 1 log(10)TCID(50) per swab and lasted for only 1 or 2 days. An inactivated vaccine containing the HA and NA of an H1N1v is able to protect pigs from an infection with H1N1v, whereas swine influenza vaccines that are currently available are of limited efficaciousness. Whether vaccination of pigs against H1N1v will become opportune remains to be seen and will depend on future evolution of this strain in the pig population. Close monitoring of the pig population, focussing on presence and evolution of

  14. Performance of the Directigen EZ Flu A+B rapid influenza diagnostic test to detect pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyanton, Bobby L; Almradi, Amro; Mehta, Tejal; Robinson-Dunn, Barbara

    2014-04-01

    The Directigen EZ Flu A+B rapid influenza diagnostic test, as compared to real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction, demonstrated suboptimal performance to detect pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009. Age- and viral load-stratified test sensitivity ranged from 33.3 to 84.6% and 0 to 100%, respectively. © 2013.

  15. The long term impact of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Norway

    OpenAIRE

    Bakken, Magnus Røthe; Husøy, Sigrid Johanne

    2016-01-01

    A growing literature show the negative effect of prenatal health shocks on childhood and adult outcomes. Several studies exploit disease outbreaks to find causal effects of in utero exposure on various outcomes. We build on the existing literature by applying theories of in utero health effects to Norwegian data. This thesis uses the 1918 Spanish Influenza pandemic as a natural experiment to investigate the impact of prenatal health shock on various long term outcomes in Norway...

  16. The long term impact of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Norway

    OpenAIRE

    Bakken, Magnus Røthe; Husøy, Sigrid Johanne

    2016-01-01

    Advisor: Aline Bütikofer A growing literature show the negative effect of prenatal health shocks on childhood and adult outcomes. Several studies exploit disease outbreaks to find causal effects of in utero exposure on various outcomes. We build on the existing literature by applying theories of in utero health effects to Norwegian data. This thesis uses the 1918 Spanish Influenza pandemic as a natural experiment to investigate the impact of prenatal health shock on various ...

  17. [Technical report on the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Since its appearance in April 2009, the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic has been a subject of continued attention by national and international health authorities, as well as in the communication media. It has been six months since the first cases were published and the winter season has just ended in the southern hemisphere. Therefore, we now have quite extensive knowledge on the behaviour of the disease, its severity and the way it manifests itself in the child/adolescent population. The Spanish Paediatric Association commissioned its Evidence Based Medicine Working Group to prepare a technical report on the influenza pandemic. This report has been prepared following the highly structured working methodology proposed by the so-called Evidence Based Medicine (EBM). This methodology requires formulating clinical questions, carrying out a systematic review of the literature looking for research works that could answer them, the critical reading of these, evaluating their methodology quality and clinical importance and finally, establishing recommendations based on those studies considered valid and important as well as on good clinical judgement. The present report approaches all aspects of the influenza pandemic considered to be of interest: extent of the disease, clinical and laboratory diagnosis, physical prevention measures, vaccination and pharmacological treatment. The target population of the report are children and adolescents. Many of the considerations made may also be applied to other age groups. The primary objective of this report is to establish a group of recommendations which may serve as a generic framework for the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of the pandemic influenza in children and adolescents. The final targets of the report are paediatricians and also general/family doctors and nurses who look after children and adolescents. Copyright (c) 2009 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  18. Ethics-sensitivity of the Ghana national integrated strategic response plan for pandemic influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laar, Amos; DeBruin, Debra

    2015-05-07

    Many commentators call for a more ethical approach to planning for influenza pandemics. In the developed world, some pandemic preparedness plans have already been examined from an ethical viewpoint. This paper assesses the attention given to ethics issues by the Ghana National Integrated Strategic Plan for Pandemic Influenza (NISPPI). We critically analyzed the Ghana NISPPI's sensitivity to ethics issues to determine how well it reflects ethical commitments and principles identified in our review of global pandemic preparedness literature, existing pandemic plans, and relevant ethics frameworks. This paper reveals that important ethical issues have not been addressed in the Ghana NISPPI. Several important ethical issues are unanticipated, unacknowledged, and unplanned for. These include guidelines on allocation of scarce resources, the duties of healthcare workers, ethics-sensitive operational guidelines/protocols, and compensation programs. The NISPPI also pays scant attention to use of vaccines and antivirals, border issues and cooperation with neighboring countries, justification for delineated actions, and outbreak simulations. Feedback and communication plans are nebulous, while leadership, coordination, and budgeting are quite detailed. With respect to presentation, the NISPPI's text is organized around five thematic areas. While each area implicates ethical issues, NISPPI treatment of these areas consistently fails to address them. Our analysis reveals a lack of consideration of ethics by the NISPPI. We contend that, while the plan's content and fundamental assumptions provide support for implementation of the delineated public health actions, its consideration of ethical issues is poor. Deficiencies include a failure to incorporate guidelines that ensure fair distribution of scarce resources and a lack of justification for delineated procedures. Until these deficiencies are recognized and addressed, Ghana runs the risk of rolling out unjust and ethically

  19. A survey of pandemic influenza preparedness and response capabilities in Chicago area hospital security departments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimmerly, David P

    2009-01-01

    This article is a summary based on a December 2007 paper prepared by the author in partial fulfillment of the requirements for a master's degree in business and organizational security management at Webster University. The project described was intended to assess Chicago-area healthcare organization security departments' preparedness and response capabilities for a potential influenza pandemic. While the author says healthcare organizations are learning from the pandemics of the past, little research has been conducted on the requirements necessary within hospital security departments. The article explores staffing, planning, preparation and response capabilities within a healthcare security context to determine existing resources available to the healthcare security community. Eleven completed surveys were received from hospital security managers throughout the geographical Chicago area. They reveal that hospital security managers are conscious of the risks of a pandemic influenza outbreak. Yet, it was found that several gaps existed within hospital security department staffing and response capabilities, as hospital security departments may not have the available resources necessary to adequately maintain their operations during a pandemic incident.

  20. Toward a method for tracking virus evolutionary trajectory applied to the pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Squires, R Burke; Pickett, Brett E; Das, Sajal; Scheuermann, Richard H

    2014-12-01

    In 2009 a novel pandemic H1N1 influenza virus (H1N1pdm09) emerged as the first official influenza pandemic of the 21st century. Early genomic sequence analysis pointed to the swine origin of the virus. Here we report a novel computational approach to determine the evolutionary trajectory of viral sequences that uses data-driven estimations of nucleotide substitution rates to track the gradual accumulation of observed sequence alterations over time. Phylogenetic analysis and multiple sequence alignments show that sequences belonging to the resulting evolutionary trajectory of the H1N1pdm09 lineage exhibit a gradual accumulation of sequence variations and tight temporal correlations in the topological structure of the phylogenetic trees. These results suggest that our evolutionary trajectory analysis (ETA) can more effectively pinpoint the evolutionary history of viruses, including the host and geographical location traversed by each segment, when compared against either BLAST or traditional phylogenetic analysis alone. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. University life and pandemic influenza: Attitudes and intended behaviour of staff and students towards pandemic (H1N1 2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MacIntyre C Raina

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In a pandemic young adults are more likely to be infected, increasing the potential for Universities to be explosive disease outbreak centres. Outbreak management is essential to reduce the impact in both the institution and the surrounding community. Through the use of an online survey, we aimed to measure the perceptions and responses of staff and students towards pandemic (H1N1 2009 at a major university in Sydney, Australia. Methods The survey was available online from 29 June to 30 September 2009. The sample included academic staff, general staff and students of the University. Results A total of 2882 surveys were completed. Nearly all respondents (99.6%, 2870/2882 were aware of the Australian pandemic situation and 64.2% (1851/2882 reported either "no anxiety" or "disinterest." Asian-born respondents were significantly (p Conclusions Responses to a pandemic are subject to change in its pre-, early and mid-outbreak stages. Lessons for these institutions in preparation for a second wave and future disease outbreaks include the need to promote positive public health behaviours amongst young people and students.

  2. School illness absenteeism during 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic--South Dakota, 2009-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kightlinger, Lon; Horan, Vickie

    2013-05-01

    Schools are important amplification settings of influenza virus transmission. We demonstrated correlation of school absenteeism (due to any illness) with other influenza A (H1N1) activity surveillance data during the 2009 pandemic. We collected nonspecific illness student absenteeism data from August 17, 2009 through April 3, 2010 from 187 voluntarily participating South Dakota schools using weekly online surveys. Relative risks (RR) were calculated as the ratio of the probability of absenteeism during elevated weeks versus the probability of absenteeism during the baseline weeks (RR = 1.89). We used Pearson correlation to associate absenteeism with laboratory-confirmed influenza cases, influenza cases diagnosed by rapid tests, influenza-associated hospitalizations and deaths reported in South Dakota during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic period. School-absenteeism data correlated strongly with data from these other influenza surveillance sources.

  3. The limitations of point of care testing for pandemic influenza: what clinicians and public health professionals need to know.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatchette, Todd F; Bastien, Nathalie; Berry, Jody; Booth, Tim F; Chernesky, Max; Couillard, Michel; Drews, Steven; Ebsworth, Anthony; Fearon, Margaret; Fonseca, Kevin; Fox, Julie; Gagnon, Jean-Nicolas; Guercio, Steven; Horsman, Greg; Jorowski, Cathy; Kuschak, Theodore; Li, Yan; Majury, Anna; Petric, Martin; Ratnam, Sam; Smieja, Marek; Van Caeseele, Paul

    2009-01-01

    As the world prepares for the next influenza pandemic, governments have made significant funding commitments to vaccine development and antiviral stockpiling. While these are essential components to pandemic response, rapid and accurate diagnostic testing remains an often neglected cornerstone of pandemic influenza preparedness. Clinicians and Public Health Practitioners need to understand the benefits and drawbacks of different influenza tests in both seasonal and pandemic settings. Culture has been the traditional gold standard for influenza diagnosis but requires from 1-10 days to generate a positive result, compared to nucleic acid detection methods such as real time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Although the currently available rapid antigen detection kits can generate results in less than 30 minutes, their sensitivity is suboptimal and they are not recommended for the detection of novel influenza viruses. Until point-of-care (POC) tests are improved, PILPN recommends that the best option for pandemic influenza preparation is the enhancement of nucleic acid-based testing capabilities across Canada.

  4. Critically ill children during the 2009-2010 influenza pandemic in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randolph, Adrienne G; Vaughn, Frances; Sullivan, Ryan; Rubinson, Lewis; Thompson, B Taylor; Yoon, Grace; Smoot, Elizabeth; Rice, Todd W; Loftis, Laura L; Helfaer, Mark; Doctor, Allan; Paden, Matthew; Flori, Heidi; Babbitt, Christopher; Graciano, Ana Lia; Gedeit, Rainer; Sanders, Ronald C; Giuliano, John S; Zimmerman, Jerry; Uyeki, Timothy M

    2011-12-01

    The 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) (pH1N1) virus continues to circulate worldwide. Determining the roles of chronic conditions and bacterial coinfection in mortality is difficult because of the limited data for children with pH1N1-related critical illness. We identified children (<21 years old) with confirmed or probable pH1N1 admitted to 35 US PICUs from April 15, 2009, through April 15, 2010. We collected data on demographics, baseline health, laboratory results, treatments, and outcomes. Of 838 children with pH1N1 admitted to a PICU, the median age was 6 years, 58% were male, 70% had ≥1 chronic health condition, and 88.2% received oseltamivir (5.8% started before PICU admission). Most patients had respiratory failure with 564 (67.3%) receiving mechanical ventilation; 162 (19.3%) received vasopressors, and 75 (8.9%) died. Overall, 71 (8.5%) of the patients had a presumed diagnosis of early (within 72 hours after PICU admission) Staphylococcus aureus coinfection of the lung with 48% methicillin-resistant S aureus (MRSA). In multivariable analyses, preexisting neurologic conditions or immunosuppression, encephalitis (1.7% of cases), myocarditis (1.4% of cases), early presumed MRSA lung coinfection, and female gender were mortality risk factors. Among 251 previously healthy children, only early presumed MRSA coinfection of the lung (relative risk: 8 [95% confidence interval: 3.1-20.6]; P < .0001) remained a mortality risk factor. Children with preexisting neurologic conditions and immune compromise were at increased risk of pH1N1-associated death after PICU admission. Secondary complications of pH1N1, including myocarditis, encephalitis, and clinical diagnosis of early presumed MRSA coinfection of the lung, were mortality risk factors.

  5. Critically Ill Children During the 2009–2010 Influenza Pandemic in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughn, Frances; Sullivan, Ryan; Rubinson, Lewis; Thompson, B. Taylor; Yoon, Grace; Smoot, Elizabeth; Rice, Todd W.; Loftis, Laura L.; Helfaer, Mark; Doctor, Allan; Paden, Matthew; Flori, Heidi; Babbitt, Christopher; Graciano, Ana Lia; Gedeit, Rainer; Sanders, Ronald C.; Giuliano, John S.; Zimmerman, Jerry; Uyeki, Timothy M.

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) (pH1N1) virus continues to circulate worldwide. Determining the roles of chronic conditions and bacterial coinfection in mortality is difficult because of the limited data for children with pH1N1-related critical illness. METHODS: We identified children (<21 years old) with confirmed or probable pH1N1 admitted to 35 US PICUs from April 15, 2009, through April 15, 2010. We collected data on demographics, baseline health, laboratory results, treatments, and outcomes. RESULTS: Of 838 children with pH1N1 admitted to a PICU, the median age was 6 years, 58% were male, 70% had ≥1 chronic health condition, and 88.2% received oseltamivir (5.8% started before PICU admission). Most patients had respiratory failure with 564 (67.3%) receiving mechanical ventilation; 162 (19.3%) received vasopressors, and 75 (8.9%) died. Overall, 71 (8.5%) of the patients had a presumed diagnosis of early (within 72 hours after PICU admission) Staphylococcus aureus coinfection of the lung with 48% methicillin-resistant S aureus (MRSA). In multivariable analyses, preexisting neurologic conditions or immunosuppression, encephalitis (1.7% of cases), myocarditis (1.4% of cases), early presumed MRSA lung coinfection, and female gender were mortality risk factors. Among 251 previously healthy children, only early presumed MRSA coinfection of the lung (relative risk: 8 [95% confidence interval: 3.1–20.6]; P < .0001) remained a mortality risk factor. CONCLUSIONS: Children with preexisting neurologic conditions and immune compromise were at increased risk of pH1N1-associated death after PICU admission. Secondary complications of pH1N1, including myocarditis, encephalitis, and clinical diagnosis of early presumed MRSA coinfection of the lung, were mortality risk factors. PMID:22065262

  6. Social capital and health-protective behavior intentions in an influenza pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuang, Ying-Chih; Huang, Ya-Li; Tseng, Kuo-Chien; Yen, Chia-Hsin; Yang, Lin-hui

    2015-01-01

    Health-protective behaviors, such as receiving a vaccine, wearing a face mask, and washing hands frequently, can reduce the risk of contracting influenza. However, little is known about how social capital may influence health-protective behavior in the general population. This study examined whether each of the social capital dimensions (bonding, bridging, and linking) contributed to the intention to adopt any of the health-protective behaviors in an influenza pandemic. The data of this study were from the 2014 Taiwan Social Change Survey. A stratified, three-stage probability proportional-to-size sampling from across the nation, was conducted to select adults aged 20 years and older (N = 1,745). Bonding social capital was measured by the frequency of neighborly contact and support. Bridging social capital was measured based on association membership. Linking social capital was measured according to general government trust and trust in the government's capacity to counter an influenza pandemic. Binary logistic regressions were used to assess the multivariate associations between social capital and behavioral intention. The study results indicate that social capital may influence the response to influenza pandemic. Specifically, the intention to receive a vaccine and to wash hands more frequently were associated with the linking dimension and the bonding dimension of social capital, while the intention to wear a face mask was associated with all forms of social capital. The findings of this study suggest that government credibility and interpersonal networks may play a crucial role in health-protective behavior. This study provides new insights into how to improve the effectiveness of influenza prevention campaigns.

  7. Molecular characterization of a novel reassortant H1N2 influenza virus containing genes from the 2009 pandemic human H1N1 virus in swine from eastern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Xiuming; Wu, Haibo; Xu, Lihua; Peng, Xiaorong; Cheng, Linfang; Jin, Changzhong; Xie, Tiansheng; Lu, Xiangyun; Wu, Nanping

    2016-06-01

    Pandemic outbreaks of H1N1 swine influenza virus have been reported since 2009. Reassortant H1N2 viruses that contain genes from the pandemic H1N1 virus have been isolated in Italy and the United States. However, there is limited information regarding the molecular characteristics of reassortant H1N2 swine influenza viruses in eastern China. Active influenza surveillance programs in Zhejiang Province identified a novel H1N2 influenza virus isolated from pigs displaying clinical signs of influenza virus infection. Whole-genome sequencing was performed and this strain was compared with other influenza viruses available in GenBank. Phylogenetic analysis suggested that the novel strain contained genes from the 2009 pandemic human H1N1 and swine H3N2 viruses. BALB/c mice were infected with the isolated virus to assess its virulence in mice. While the novel H1N2 isolate replicated well in mice, it was found to be less virulent. These results provide additional evidence that swine serve as intermediate hosts or 'mixing vessels' for novel influenza viruses. They also emphasize the importance of surveillance in the swine population for use as an early warning system for influenza outbreaks in swine and human populations.

  8. Comparative community burden and severity of seasonal and pandemic influenza: results of the Flu Watch cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayward, Andrew C; Fragaszy, Ellen B; Bermingham, Alison; Wang, Lili; Copas, Andrew; Edmunds, W John; Ferguson, Neil; Goonetilleke, Nilu; Harvey, Gabrielle; Kovar, Jana; Lim, Megan S C; McMichael, Andrew; Millett, Elizabeth R C; Nguyen-Van-Tam, Jonathan S; Nazareth, Irwin; Pebody, Richard; Tabassum, Faiza; Watson, John M; Wurie, Fatima B; Johnson, Anne M; Zambon, Maria

    2014-06-01

    Assessment of the effect of influenza on populations, including risk of infection, illness if infected, illness severity, and consultation rates, is essential to inform future control and prevention. We aimed to compare the community burden and severity of seasonal and pandemic influenza across different age groups and study years and gain insight into the extent to which traditional surveillance underestimates this burden. Using preseason and postseason serology, weekly illness reporting, and RT-PCR identification of influenza from nasal swabs, we tracked the course of seasonal and pandemic influenza over five successive cohorts (England 2006-11; 5448 person-seasons' follow-up). We compared burden and severity of seasonal and pandemic strains. We weighted analyses to the age and regional structure of England to give nationally representative estimates. We compared symptom profiles over the first week of illness for different strains of PCR-confirmed influenza and non-influenza viruses using ordinal logistic regression with symptom severity grade as the outcome variable. Based on four-fold titre rises in strain-specific serology, on average influenza infected 18% (95% CI 16-22) of unvaccinated people each winter. Of those infected there were 69 respiratory illnesses per 100 person-influenza-seasons compared with 44 per 100 in those not infected with influenza. The age-adjusted attributable rate of illness if infected was 23 illnesses per 100 person-seasons (13-34), suggesting most influenza infections are asymptomatic. 25% (18-35) of all people with serologically confirmed infections had PCR-confirmed disease. 17% (10-26) of people with PCR-confirmed influenza had medically attended illness. These figures did not differ significantly when comparing pandemic with seasonal influenza. Of PCR-confirmed cases, people infected with the 2009 pandemic strain had markedly less severe symptoms than those infected with seasonal H3N2. Seasonal influenza and the 2009 pandemic

  9. Global mortality estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR project: a modeling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonsen, Lone; Spreeuwenberg, Peter; Lustig, Roger; Taylor, Robert J; Fleming, Douglas M; Kroneman, Madelon; Van Kerkhove, Maria D; Mounts, Anthony W; Paget, W John

    2013-11-01

    Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was substantially higher. We estimated the 2009 pandemic mortality burden through statistical modeling of mortality data from multiple countries. We obtained weekly virology and underlying cause-of-death mortality time series for 2005-2009 for 20 countries covering ∼35% of the world population. We applied a multivariate linear regression model to estimate pandemic respiratory mortality in each collaborating country. We then used these results plus ten country indicators in a multiple imputation model to project the mortality burden in all world countries. Between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic respiratory deaths were estimated globally for the last 9 mo of 2009. The majority (62%-85%) were attributed to persons under 65 y of age. We observed a striking regional heterogeneity, with almost 20-fold higher mortality in some countries in the Americas than in Europe. The model attributed 148,000-249,000 respiratory deaths to influenza in an average pre-pandemic season, with only 19% in persons representation of low-income countries among single-country estimates and an inability to study subsequent pandemic waves (2010-2012). We estimate that 2009 global pandemic respiratory mortality was ∼10-fold higher than the World Health Organization's laboratory-confirmed mortality count. Although the pandemic mortality estimate was similar in magnitude to that of seasonal influenza, a marked shift toward mortality among persons Europe. A collaborative network to collect and analyze mortality and hospitalization surveillance data is needed to rapidly establish the severity of future pandemics. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

  10. Severe pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza disease due to pathogenic immune complexes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monsalvo, Ana Clara; Batalle, Juan P.; Lopez, M. Florencia; Krause, Jens C.; Klemenc, Jennifer; Zea, Johanna; Maskin, Bernardo; Bugna, Jimena; Rubinstein, Carlos; Aguilar, Leandro; Dalurzo, Liliana; Libster, Romina; Savy, Vilma; Baumeister, Elsa; Aguilar, Liliana; Cabral, Graciela; Font, Julia; Solari, Liliana; Weller, Kevin P.; Johnson, Joyce; Echavarria, Marcela; Edwards, Kathryn M.; Chappell, James D.; Crowe, James E.; Williams, John V.; Melendi, Guillermina A.; Polack, Fernando P.

    2010-01-01

    Pandemic influenza viruses often cause severe disease in middle-aged adults without preexistent co-morbidities. The mechanism of illness associated with severe disease in this age group is not well understood1–10. Here, we demonstrate preexisting serum antibody that cross-reacts with, but does not protect against 2009 H1N1 influenza virus in middle-aged adults. Non-protective antibody is associated with immune complex(IC)-mediated disease after infection. High titers of serum antibody of low avidity for H1-2009 antigen, and low avidity pulmonary ICs against the same protein were detected in severely ill patients. Moreover, C4d deposition - a sensitive marker of complement activation mediated by ICs- was present in lung sections of fatal cases. Archived lung sections from adults with confirmed fatal influenza 1957 H2N2 infection revealed a similar mechanism of illness. These observations provide a novel biological mechanism for the unusual age distribution of severe cases during influenza pandemics. PMID:21131958

  11. Cloned defective interfering influenza virus protects ferrets from pandemic 2009 influenza A virus and allows protective immunity to be established.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nigel J Dimmock

    Full Text Available Influenza A viruses are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the human population, causing epidemics in the winter, and occasional worldwide pandemics. In addition there are periodic outbreaks in domestic poultry, horses, pigs, dogs, and cats. Infections of domestic birds can be fatal for the birds and their human contacts. Control in man operates through vaccines and antivirals, but both have their limitations. In the search for an alternative treatment we have focussed on defective interfering (DI influenza A virus. Such a DI virus is superficially indistinguishable from a normal virus but has a large deletion in one of the eight RNAs that make up the viral genome. Antiviral activity resides in the deleted RNA. We have cloned one such highly active DI RNA derived from segment 1 (244 DI virus and shown earlier that intranasal administration protects mice from lethal disease caused by a number of different influenza A viruses. A more cogent model of human influenza is the ferret. Here we found that intranasal treatment with a single dose of 2 or 0.2 µg 244 RNA delivered as A/PR/8/34 virus particles protected ferrets from disease caused by pandemic virus A/California/04/09 (A/Cal; H1N1. Specifically, 244 DI virus significantly reduced fever, weight loss, respiratory symptoms, and infectious load. 244 DI RNA, the active principle, was amplified in nasal washes following infection with A/Cal, consistent with its amelioration of clinical disease. Animals that were treated with 244 DI RNA cleared infectious and DI viruses without delay. Despite the attenuation of infection and disease by DI virus, ferrets formed high levels of A/Cal-specific serum haemagglutination-inhibiting antibodies and were solidly immune to rechallenge with A/Cal. Together with earlier data from mouse studies, we conclude that 244 DI virus is a highly effective antiviral with activity potentially against all influenza A subtypes.

  12. Economic analysis of pandemic influenza mitigation strategies for five pandemic severity categories

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kelso, Joel K.; Halder, Nilimesh; Postma, Maarten J.; Milne, George J.

    2013-01-01

    Background: The threat of emergence of a human-to-human transmissible strain of highly pathogenic influenza A (H5N1) is very real, and is reinforced by recent results showing that genetically modified A(H5N1) may be readily transmitted between ferrets. Public health authorities are hesitant in

  13. Combination strategies for pandemic influenza response - a systematic review of mathematical modeling studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Vernon J

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Individual strategies in pandemic preparedness plans may not reduce the impact of an influenza pandemic. Methods We searched modeling publications through PubMed and associated references from 1990 to 30 September 2009. Inclusion criteria were modeling papers quantifying the effectiveness of combination strategies, both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical. Results Nineteen modeling papers on combination strategies were selected. Four studies examined combination strategies on a global scale, 14 on single countries, and one on a small community. Stochastic individual-based modeling was used in nine studies, stochastic meta-population modeling in five, and deterministic compartmental modeling in another five. As part of combination strategies, vaccination was explored in eight studies, antiviral prophylaxis and/or treatment in 16, area or household quarantine in eight, case isolation in six, social distancing measures in 10 and air travel restriction in six studies. Two studies suggested a high probability of successful influenza epicenter containment with combination strategies under favorable conditions. During a pandemic, combination strategies delayed spread, reduced overall number of cases, and delayed and reduced peak attack rate more than individual strategies. Combination strategies remained effective at high reproductive numbers compared with single strategy. Global cooperative strategies, including redistribution of antiviral drugs, were effective in reducing the global impact and attack rates of pandemic influenza. Conclusion Combination strategies increase the effectiveness of individual strategies. They include pharmaceutical (antiviral agents, antibiotics and vaccines and non-pharmaceutical interventions (case isolation, quarantine, personal hygiene measures, social distancing and travel restriction. Local epidemiological and modeling studies are needed to validate efficacy and feasibility.

  14. Immunocapture isotope dilution mass spectrometry in response to a pandemic influenza threat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, Carrie L; Williams, Tracie L; Santana, Wanda I; Levine, Marnie; Chen, Li-Mei; Cooper, Hans C; Solano, Maria I; Woolfitt, Adrian R; Marasco, Wayne A; Fang, He; Donis, Ruben O; Barr, John R

    2017-09-05

    As a result of recent advances in mass spectrometry-based protein quantitation methods, these techniques are now poised to play a critical role in rapid formulation of pandemic influenza vaccines. Analytical techniques that have been developed and validated on seasonal influenza strains can be used to increase the quality and decrease the time required to deliver protective pandemic vaccines to the global population. The emergence of a potentially pandemic avian influenza A (H7N9) virus in March of 2013, prompted the US public health authorities and the vaccine industry to initiate production of a pre-pandemic vaccine for preparedness purposes. To this end, we evaluated the feasibility of using immunocapture isotope dilution mass spectrometry (IC-IDMS) to evaluate the suitability of the underlying monoclonal and polyclonal antibodies (mAbs and pAbs) for their capacity to isolate the H7 hemagglutinin (HA) in this new vaccine for quantification by IDMS. A broad range of H7 capture efficiencies was observed among mAbs tested by IC-IDMS with FR-545, 46/6, and G3 A533 exhibiting the highest cross-reactivity capabilities to H7 of A/Shanghai/2/2013. MAb FR-545 was selected for continued assessment, evaluated by IC-IDMS for mAb reactivity against H7 in the H7N9 candidate vaccine virus and compared with/to reactivity to the reference polyclonal antiserum in allantoic fluid, purified whole virus, lyophilized whole virus and final detergent-split monovalent vaccine preparations for vaccine development. IC-IDMS assessment of FR-545 alongside IC-IDMS using the reference polyclonal antiserum to A/Shanghai/2/2013 and with the regulatory SRID method showed strong correlation and mAb IC-IDMS could have played an important role in the event a potential surrogate potency test was required to be rapidly implemented. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  15. Core-6 fucose and the oligomerization of the 1918 pandemic influenza viral neuraminidase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Zhengliang L.; Zhou, Hui; Ethen, Cheryl M.; Reinhold, Vernon N.

    2016-01-01

    The 1918 H1N1 influenza virus was responsible for one of the most deadly pandemics in human history. Yet to date, the structure component responsible for its virulence is still a mystery. In order to search for such a component, the neuraminidase (NA) antigen of the virus was expressed, which led to the discovery of an active form (tetramer) and an inactive form (dimer and monomer) of the protein due to different glycosylation. In this report, the N-glycans from both forms were released and characterized by mass spectrometry. It was found that the glycans from the active form had 26% core-6 fucosylated, while the glycans from the inactive form had 82% core-6 fucosylated. Even more surprisingly, the stalk region of the active form was almost completely devoid of core-6-linked fucose. These findings were further supported by the results obtained from in vitro incorporation of azido fucose and "3H-labeled fucose using core-6 fucosyltransferase, FUT8. In addition, the incorporation of fucose did not change the enzymatic activity of the active form, implying that core-6 fucose is not directly involved in the enzymatic activity. It is postulated that core-6 fucose prohibits the oligomerization and subsequent activation of the enzyme. - Graphical abstract: Proposed mechanism for how core-fucose prohibits the tetramerization of the 1918 pandemic viral neuraminidase. Only the cross section of the stalk region with two N-linked glycans are depicted for clarity. (A) Carbohydrate–carbohydrate interaction on non-fucosylated monomer allows tetramerization. (B) Core-fucosylation disrupts the interaction and prevents the tetramerization. - Highlights: • Expressed 1918 pandemic influenza viral neuraminidase has inactive and active forms. • The inactive form contains high level of core-6 fucose, while the active form lacks such modification. • Core fucose could interfere the oligomerization of the neuraminidase and thus its activation. • This discovery may explain why

  16. Core-6 fucose and the oligomerization of the 1918 pandemic influenza viral neuraminidase

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Zhengliang L., E-mail: Leon.wu@bio-techne.com [Bio-Techne Inc., 614 McKinley Place NE, Minneapolis, MN 55413 (United States); Zhou, Hui [Gregg Hall, UNH Glycomics Center, University of New Hampshire (United States); Ethen, Cheryl M. [Bio-Techne Inc., 614 McKinley Place NE, Minneapolis, MN 55413 (United States); Reinhold, Vernon N., E-mail: Vernon.Reinhold@unh.edu [Gregg Hall, UNH Glycomics Center, University of New Hampshire (United States)

    2016-04-29

    The 1918 H1N1 influenza virus was responsible for one of the most deadly pandemics in human history. Yet to date, the structure component responsible for its virulence is still a mystery. In order to search for such a component, the neuraminidase (NA) antigen of the virus was expressed, which led to the discovery of an active form (tetramer) and an inactive form (dimer and monomer) of the protein due to different glycosylation. In this report, the N-glycans from both forms were released and characterized by mass spectrometry. It was found that the glycans from the active form had 26% core-6 fucosylated, while the glycans from the inactive form had 82% core-6 fucosylated. Even more surprisingly, the stalk region of the active form was almost completely devoid of core-6-linked fucose. These findings were further supported by the results obtained from in vitro incorporation of azido fucose and {sup 3}H-labeled fucose using core-6 fucosyltransferase, FUT8. In addition, the incorporation of fucose did not change the enzymatic activity of the active form, implying that core-6 fucose is not directly involved in the enzymatic activity. It is postulated that core-6 fucose prohibits the oligomerization and subsequent activation of the enzyme. - Graphical abstract: Proposed mechanism for how core-fucose prohibits the tetramerization of the 1918 pandemic viral neuraminidase. Only the cross section of the stalk region with two N-linked glycans are depicted for clarity. (A) Carbohydrate–carbohydrate interaction on non-fucosylated monomer allows tetramerization. (B) Core-fucosylation disrupts the interaction and prevents the tetramerization. - Highlights: • Expressed 1918 pandemic influenza viral neuraminidase has inactive and active forms. • The inactive form contains high level of core-6 fucose, while the active form lacks such modification. • Core fucose could interfere the oligomerization of the neuraminidase and thus its activation. • This discovery may explain

  17. Systematic review of economic evaluations of preparedness strategies and interventions against influenza pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez Velasco, Román; Praditsitthikorn, Naiyana; Wichmann, Kamonthip; Mohara, Adun; Kotirum, Surachai; Tantivess, Sripen; Vallenas, Constanza; Harmanci, Hande; Teerawattananon, Yot

    2012-01-01

    Although public health guidelines have implications for resource allocation, these issues were not explicitly considered in previous WHO pandemic preparedness and response guidance. In order to ensure a thorough and informed revision of this guidance following the H1N1 2009 pandemic, a systematic review of published and unpublished economic evaluations of preparedness strategies and interventions against influenza pandemics was conducted. The search was performed in September 2011 using 10 electronic databases, 2 internet search engines, reference list screening, cited reference searching, and direct communication with relevant authors. Full and partial economic evaluations considering both costs and outcomes were included. Conversely, reviews, editorials, and studies on economic impact or complications were excluded. Studies were selected by 2 independent reviewers. 44 studies were included. Although most complied with the cost effectiveness guidelines, the quality of evidence was limited. However, the data sources used were of higher quality in economic evaluations conducted after the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Vaccination and drug regimens were varied. Pharmaceutical plus non-pharmaceutical interventions are relatively cost effective in comparison to vaccines and/or antivirals alone. Pharmaceutical interventions vary from cost saving to high cost effectiveness ratios. According to ceiling thresholds (Gross National Income per capita), the reduction of non-essential contacts and the use of pharmaceutical prophylaxis plus the closure of schools are amongst the cost effective strategies for all countries. However, quarantine for household contacts is not cost effective even for low and middle income countries. The available evidence is generally inconclusive regarding the cost effectiveness of preparedness strategies and interventions against influenza pandemics. Studies on their effectiveness and cost effectiveness should be readily implemented in forthcoming events that

  18. Systematic review of economic evaluations of preparedness strategies and interventions against influenza pandemics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Román Pérez Velasco

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Although public health guidelines have implications for resource allocation, these issues were not explicitly considered in previous WHO pandemic preparedness and response guidance. In order to ensure a thorough and informed revision of this guidance following the H1N1 2009 pandemic, a systematic review of published and unpublished economic evaluations of preparedness strategies and interventions against influenza pandemics was conducted. METHODS: The search was performed in September 2011 using 10 electronic databases, 2 internet search engines, reference list screening, cited reference searching, and direct communication with relevant authors. Full and partial economic evaluations considering both costs and outcomes were included. Conversely, reviews, editorials, and studies on economic impact or complications were excluded. Studies were selected by 2 independent reviewers. RESULTS: 44 studies were included. Although most complied with the cost effectiveness guidelines, the quality of evidence was limited. However, the data sources used were of higher quality in economic evaluations conducted after the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Vaccination and drug regimens were varied. Pharmaceutical plus non-pharmaceutical interventions are relatively cost effective in comparison to vaccines and/or antivirals alone. Pharmaceutical interventions vary from cost saving to high cost effectiveness ratios. According to ceiling thresholds (Gross National Income per capita, the reduction of non-essential contacts and the use of pharmaceutical prophylaxis plus the closure of schools are amongst the cost effective strategies for all countries. However, quarantine for household contacts is not cost effective even for low and middle income countries. CONCLUSION: The available evidence is generally inconclusive regarding the cost effectiveness of preparedness strategies and interventions against influenza pandemics. Studies on their effectiveness and cost

  19. Priority setting of ICU resources in an influenza pandemic: a qualitative study of the Canadian public's perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silva Diego S

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Pandemic influenza may exacerbate existing scarcity of life-saving medical resources. As a result, decision-makers may be faced with making tough choices about who will receive care and who will have to wait or go without. Although previous studies have explored ethical issues in priority setting from the perspective of clinicians and policymakers, there has been little investigation into how the public views priority setting during a pandemic influenza, in particular related to intensive care resources. Methods To bridge this gap, we conducted three public town hall meetings across Canada to explore Canadian's perspectives on this ethical challenge. Town hall discussions group discussions were digitally recorded, transcribed, and analyzed using thematic analysis. Results Six interrelated themes emerged from the town hall discussions related to: ethical and empirical starting points for deliberation; criteria for setting priorities; pre-crisis planning; in-crisis decision-making; the need for public deliberation and input; and participants' deliberative struggle with the ethical issues. Conclusions Our findings underscore the importance of public consultation in pandemic planning for sustaining public trust in a public health emergency. Participants appreciated the empirical and ethical uncertainty of decision-making in an influenza pandemic and demonstrated nuanced ethical reasoning about priority setting of intensive care resources in an influenza pandemic. Policymakers may benefit from a better understanding the public's empirical and ethical 'starting points' in developing effective pandemic plans.

  20. Priority setting of ICU resources in an influenza pandemic: a qualitative study of the Canadian public's perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Diego S; Gibson, Jennifer L; Robertson, Ann; Bensimon, Cécile M; Sahni, Sachin; Maunula, Laena; Smith, Maxwell J

    2012-03-26

    Pandemic influenza may exacerbate existing scarcity of life-saving medical resources. As a result, decision-makers may be faced with making tough choices about who will receive care and who will have to wait or go without. Although previous studies have explored ethical issues in priority setting from the perspective of clinicians and policymakers, there has been little investigation into how the public views priority setting during a pandemic influenza, in particular related to intensive care resources. To bridge this gap, we conducted three public town hall meetings across Canada to explore Canadian's perspectives on this ethical challenge. Town hall discussions group discussions were digitally recorded, transcribed, and analyzed using thematic analysis. Six interrelated themes emerged from the town hall discussions related to: ethical and empirical starting points for deliberation; criteria for setting priorities; pre-crisis planning; in-crisis decision-making; the need for public deliberation and input; and participants' deliberative struggle with the ethical issues. Our findings underscore the importance of public consultation in pandemic planning for sustaining public trust in a public health emergency. Participants appreciated the empirical and ethical uncertainty of decision-making in an influenza pandemic and demonstrated nuanced ethical reasoning about priority setting of intensive care resources in an influenza pandemic. Policymakers may benefit from a better understanding the public's empirical and ethical 'starting points' in developing effective pandemic plans.

  1. ICU-treated influenza A(H1N1 pdm09 infections more severe post pandemic than during 2009 pandemic: a retrospective analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pekka Ylipalosaari

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We compared in a single mixed intensive care unit (ICU patients with influenza A(H1N1 pdm09 between pandemic and postpandemic periods. Methods Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data in 2009–2016. Data are expressed as median (25th–75th percentile or number (percentile. Results Seventy-six influenza A(H1N1 pdm09 patients were admitted to the ICU: 16 during the pandemic period and 60 during the postpandemic period. Postpandemic patients were significantly older (60 years vs. 43 years, p < 0.001 and less likely to have epilepsy or other neurological diseases compared with pandemic patients (5 [8.3%] vs. 6 [38%], respectively; p = 0.009. Postpandemic patients were more likely than pandemic patients to have cardiovascular disease (24 [40%] vs. 1 [6%], respectively; p = 0.015, and they had higher scores on APACHE II (17 [13–22] vs. 14 [10–17], p = 0.002 and SAPS II (40 [31–51] vs. 31 [25–35], p = 0.002 upon admission to the ICU. Postpandemic patients had higher maximal SOFA score (9 [5–12] vs. 5 [4–9], respectively; p = 0.03 during their ICU stay. Postpandemic patients had more often septic shock (40 [66.7%] vs. 8 [50.0%], p = 0.042, and longer median hospital stays (15.0 vs. 8.0 days, respectively; p = 0.006. During 2015–2016, only 18% of the ICU- treated patients had received seasonal influenza vaccination. Conclusions Postpandemic ICU-treated A(H1N1 pdm09 influenza patients were older and developed more often septic shock and had longer hospital stays than influenza patients during the 2009 pandemic.

  2. Pandemic influenza-implications for critical care resources in Australia and New Zealand.

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    Anderson, Therese A; Hart, Graeme K; Kainer, Marion A

    2003-09-01

    To quantify resource requirements (additional beds and ventilator capacity), for critical care services in the event of pandemic influenza. Cross-sectional survey about existing and potential critical care resources. Participants comprised 156 of the 176 Australasian (Australia and New Zealand) critical care units on the database of the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) Research Centre for Critical Care Resources. The Meltzer, Cox and Fukuda model was adapted to map a range of influenza attack rate estimates for hospitalisation and episodes likely to require intensive care and to predict critical care admission rates and bed day requirements. Estimations of ventilation rates were based on those for community-acquired pneumonia. The estimated extra number of persons requiring hospitalisation ranged from 8,455 (10% attack rate) to 150,087 (45% attack rate). The estimated number of additional admissions to critical care units ranged from 423 (5% admission rate, 10% attack rate) to 37,522 (25% admission rate, 45% attack rate). The potential number of required intensive care bed days ranged from 846 bed days (2 day length of stay, 10% attack rate) to 375,220 bed days (10 day length of stay, 45% attack rate). The number of persons likely to require mechanical ventilation ranged from 106 (25% of projected critical care admissions, 10% attack rate) to 28,142 (75% of projected critical care admissions, 45% attack rate). An additional 1,195 emergency ventilator beds were identified in public sector and 248 in private sector hospitals. Cancellation of elective surgery could release a potential 76,402 intensive care bed days (per annum), but in the event of pandemic influenza, 31,150 bed days could be required over an 8- to 12-week period. Australasian critical care services would be overwhelmed in the event of pandemic influenza. More work is required in relation to modelling, contingency plans, and resource allocation.

  3. The community impact of the 2009 influenza pandemic in the WHO European region: a comparison with historical seasonal data from 28 countries.

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    Martirosyan, L.; Paget, W.J.; Jorgensen, P.; Brown, C.S.; Meerhoff, T.J.; Pereyaslov, D.; Mott, J.A.

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The world has recently experienced the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century that lasted 14 months from June 2009 to August 2010. This study aimed to compare the timing, geographic spread and community impact during the winter wave of influenza pandemic A (H1N1) 2009 to historical

  4. The community impact of the 2009 influenza pandemic in the WHO European region: a comparison with historical seasonal data from 28 countries.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martirosyan, L.; Paget, W.J.; Jorgensen, P.; Brown, C.S.; Meerhoff, T.J.; Pereyaslov, D.; Mott, J.A.

    2012-01-01

    Background: The world has recently experienced the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century that lasted 14 months from June 2009 to August 2010. This study aimed to compare the timing, geographic spread and community impact during the winter wave of influenza pandemic A (H1N1) 2009 to historical

  5. Estimating the costs of school closure for mitigating an influenza pandemic

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    Adams Elisabeth J

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background School closure is a key component of many countries' plans to mitigate the effect of an influenza pandemic. Although a number of studies have suggested that such a policy might reduce the incidence, there are no published studies of the cost of such policies. This study attempts to fill this knowledge gap Methods School closure is expected to lead to significant work absenteeism of working parents who are likely to be the main care givers to their dependent children at home. The cost of absenteeism due to school closure is calculated as the paid productivity loss of parental absenteeism during the period of school closure. The cost is estimated from societal perspective using a nationally representative survey. Results The results show that overall about 16% of the workforce is likely to be the main caregiver for dependent children and therefore likely to take absenteeism. This rises to 30% in the health and social care sector, as a large proportion of the workforce are women. The estimated costs of school closure are significant, at £0.2 bn – £1.2 bn per week. School closure is likely to significantly exacerbate the pressures on the health system through staff absenteeism. Conclusion The estimates of school closure associated absenteeism and the projected cost would be useful for pandemic planning for business continuity, and for cost effectiveness evaluation of different pandemic influenza mitigation strategies.

  6. Planning for the next influenza pandemic: using the science and art of logistics.

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    Cupp, O Shawn; Predmore, Brad G

    2011-01-01

    The complexities and challenges for healthcare providers and their efforts to provide fundamental basic items to meet the logistical demands of an influenza pandemic are discussed in this article. The supply chain, planning, and alternatives for inevitable shortages are some of the considerations associated with this emergency mass critical care situation. The planning process and support for such events are discussed in detail with several recommendations obtained from the literature and the experience from recent mass casualty incidents (MCIs). The first step in this planning process is the development of specific triage requirements during an influenza pandemic. The second step is identification of logistical resources required during such a pandemic, which are then analyzed within the proposed logistics science and art model for planning purposes. Resources highlighted within the model include allocation and use of work force, bed space, intensive care unit assets, ventilators, personal protective equipment, and oxygen. The third step is using the model to discuss in detail possible workarounds, suitable substitutes, and resource allocation. An examination is also made of the ethics surrounding palliative care within the construction of an MCI and the factors that will inevitably determine rationing and prioritizing of these critical assets to palliative care patients.

  7. The transmissibility and control of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus.

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    Yang, Yang; Sugimoto, Jonathan D; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Basta, Nicole E; Chao, Dennis L; Matrajt, Laura; Potter, Gail; Kenah, Eben; Longini, Ira M

    2009-10-30

    Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 (pandemic H1N1) is spreading throughout the planet. It has become the dominant strain in the Southern Hemisphere, where the influenza season has now ended. Here, on the basis of reported case clusters in the United States, we estimated the household secondary attack rate for pandemic H1N1 to be 27.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) from 12.2% to 50.5%]. From a school outbreak, we estimated that a typical schoolchild infects 2.4 (95% CI from 1.8 to 3.2) other children within the school. We estimated the basic reproductive number, R0, to range from 1.3 to 1.7 and the generation interval to range from 2.6 to 3.2 days. We used a simulation model to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination strategies in the United States for fall 2009. If a vaccine were available soon enough, vaccination of children, followed by adults, reaching 70% overall coverage, in addition to high-risk and essential workforce groups, could mitigate a severe epidemic.

  8. Synthetic generation of influenza vaccine viruses for rapid response to pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dormitzer, Philip R; Suphaphiphat, Pirada; Gibson, Daniel G; Wentworth, David E; Stockwell, Timothy B; Algire, Mikkel A; Alperovich, Nina; Barro, Mario; Brown, David M; Craig, Stewart; Dattilo, Brian M; Denisova, Evgeniya A; De Souza, Ivna; Eickmann, Markus; Dugan, Vivien G; Ferrari, Annette; Gomila, Raul C; Han, Liqun; Judge, Casey; Mane, Sarthak; Matrosovich, Mikhail; Merryman, Chuck; Palladino, Giuseppe; Palmer, Gene A; Spencer, Terika; Strecker, Thomas; Trusheim, Heidi; Uhlendorff, Jennifer; Wen, Yingxia; Yee, Anthony C; Zaveri, Jayshree; Zhou, Bin; Becker, Stephan; Donabedian, Armen; Mason, Peter W; Glass, John I; Rappuoli, Rino; Venter, J Craig

    2013-05-15

    During the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, vaccines for the virus became available in large quantities only after human infections peaked. To accelerate vaccine availability for future pandemics, we developed a synthetic approach that very rapidly generated vaccine viruses from sequence data. Beginning with hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) gene sequences, we combined an enzymatic, cell-free gene assembly technique with enzymatic error correction to allow rapid, accurate gene synthesis. We then used these synthetic HA and NA genes to transfect Madin-Darby canine kidney (MDCK) cells that were qualified for vaccine manufacture with viral RNA expression constructs encoding HA and NA and plasmid DNAs encoding viral backbone genes. Viruses for use in vaccines were rescued from these MDCK cells. We performed this rescue with improved vaccine virus backbones, increasing the yield of the essential vaccine antigen, HA. Generation of synthetic vaccine seeds, together with more efficient vaccine release assays, would accelerate responses to influenza pandemics through a system of instantaneous electronic data exchange followed by real-time, geographically dispersed vaccine production.

  9. Structural Characterization of the Hemagglutinin Receptor Specificity from the 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic

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    Xu, Rui; McBride, Ryan; Nycholat, Corwin M.; Paulson, James C.; Wilson, Ian A. (Scripps)

    2012-02-13

    Influenza virus hemagglutinin (HA) is the viral envelope protein that mediates viral attachment to host cells and elicits membrane fusion. The HA receptor-binding specificity is a key determinant for the host range and transmissibility of influenza viruses. In human pandemics of the 20th century, the HA normally has acquired specificity for human-like receptors before widespread infection. Crystal structures of the H1 HA from the 2009 human pandemic (A/California/04/2009 [CA04]) in complex with human and avian receptor analogs reveal conserved recognition of the terminal sialic acid of the glycan ligands. However, favorable interactions beyond the sialic acid are found only for {alpha}2-6-linked glycans and are mediated by Asp190 and Asp225, which hydrogen bond with Gal-2 and GlcNAc-3. For {alpha}2-3-linked glycan receptors, no specific interactions beyond the terminal sialic acid are observed. Our structural and glycan microarray analyses, in the context of other high-resolution HA structures with {alpha}2-6- and {alpha}2-3-linked glycans, now elucidate the structural basis of receptor-binding specificity for H1 HAs in human and avian viruses and provide a structural explanation for the preference for {alpha}2-6 siaylated glycan receptors for the 2009 pandemic swine flu virus.

  10. Differences in pandemic influenza vaccination policies for pregnant women in Europe

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    Marnoch Gordon J

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An important component of the policy to deal with the H1N1 pandemic in 2009 was to develop and implement vaccination. Since pregnant women were found to be at particular risk of severe morbidity and mortality, the World Health Organization and the European Centers for Disease Control advised vaccinating pregnant women, regardless of trimester of pregnancy. This study reports a survey of vaccination policies for pregnant women in European countries. Methods Questionnaires were sent to European competent authorities of 27 countries via the European Medicines Agency and to leaders of registries of European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies in 21 countries. Results Replies were received for 24 out of 32 European countries of which 20 had an official pandemic vaccination policy. These 20 countries all had a policy targeting pregnant women. For two of the four countries without official pandemic vaccination policies, some vaccination of pregnant women took place. In 12 out of 20 countries the policy was to vaccinate only second and third trimester pregnant women and in 8 out of 20 countries the policy was to vaccinate pregnant women regardless of trimester of pregnancy. Seven different vaccines were used for pregnant women, of which four contained adjuvants. Few countries had mechanisms to monitor the number of vaccinations given specifically to pregnant women over time. Vaccination uptake varied. Conclusions Differences in pandemic vaccination policy and practice might relate to variation in perception of vaccine efficacy and safety, operational issues related to vaccine manufacturing and procurement, and vaccination campaign systems. Increased monitoring of pandemic influenza vaccine coverage of pregnant women is recommended to enable evaluation of the vaccine safety in pregnancy and pandemic vaccination campaign effectiveness.

  11. Using evidence-based medicine to protect healthcare workers from pandemic influenza: Is it possible?

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    Gralton, Jan; McLaws, Mary-Louise

    2011-01-01

    To use evidence-based principles to develop infection control algorithms to ensure the protection of healthcare workers and the continuity of health service provision during a pandemic. : Evidence-based algorithms were developed from published research as well as "needs and values" assessments. Research evidence was obtained from 97 studies reporting the protectiveness of antiviral prophylaxis, seasonal vaccination, and mask use. Needs and values assessments were undertaken by international experts in pandemic infection control and local healthcare workers. Opportunity and resources costs were not determined. The Australian government commissioned the development of an evidence-based algorithm for inclusion in the 2008 revision of the Australian Health and Management Plan for Pandemic Influenza. Two international infection control teams responsible for healthcare worker safety during the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome outbreak reviewed the evidence-based algorithms. The algorithms were then reviewed for needs and values by eight local clinicians who were considered key frontline clinicians during the contain and sustain phases. The international teams reviewed for practicability of implementation, whereas local clinicians reviewed for clinician compliance. Despite strong evidence for vaccination and antiviral prophylaxis providing significant protection, clinicians believed they required the additional combinations of both masks and face shields. Despite the equivocal evidence for the efficacy of surgical and N95 masks and the provision of algorithms appropriate for the level of risk according to clinical care during a pandemic, clinicians still demanded N95 masks plus face shields in combination with prophylaxis and novel vaccination. Conventional evidence-based principles could not be applied to formulate recommendations due to the lack of pandemic-specific efficacy data of protection tools and the inherent unpredictability of pandemics. As an alternative

  12. Hospital triage system for adult patients using an influenza-like illness scoring system during the 2009 pandemic--Mexico.

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    Eduardo Rodriguez-Noriega

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Pandemic influenza A (H1N1 virus emerged during 2009. To help clinicians triage adults with acute respiratory illness, a scoring system for influenza-like illness (ILI was implemented at Hospital Civil de Guadalajara, Mexico.A medical history, laboratory and radiology results were collected on emergency room (ER patients with acute respiratory illness to calculate an ILI-score. Patients were evaluated for admission by their ILI-score and clinicians' assessment of risk for developing complications. Nasal and throat swabs were collected from intermediate and high-risk patients for influenza testing by RT-PCR. The disposition and ILI-score of those oseltamivir-treated versus untreated, clinical characteristics of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1 patients versus test-negative patients were compared by Pearson's Chi(2, Fisher's Exact, and Wilcoxon rank-sum tests.Of 1840 ER patients, 230 were initially hospitalized (mean ILI-score = 15, and the rest were discharged, including 286 ambulatory patients given oseltamivir (median ILI-score = 11, and 1324 untreated (median ILI-score = 5. Fourteen (1% untreated patients returned, and 3 were hospitalized on oseltamivir (median ILI-score = 19. Of 371 patients tested by RT-PCR, 104 (28% had pandemic influenza and 42 (11% had seasonal influenza A detected. Twenty (91% of 22 imaged hospitalized pandemic influenza patients had bilateral infiltrates compared to 23 (38% of 61 imaged hospital test-negative patients (p<0.001. One patient with confirmed pandemic influenza presented 6 days after symptom onset, required mechanical ventilation, and died.The triaging system that used an ILI-score complimented clinicians' judgment of who needed oseltamivir and inpatient care and helped hospital staff manage a surge in demand for services.

  13. Continued dominance of pandemic A(H1N1 2009 influenza in Victoria, Australia in 2010

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    James E. Fielding

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The 2010 Victorian influenza season was characterized by normal seasonal influenza activity and the dominance of the pandemic A(H1N1 2009 strain. General Practice Sentinel Surveillance rates peaked at 9.4 ILI cases per 1000 consultations in week 36 for metropolitan practices, and at 10.5 ILI cases per 1000 in the following week for rural practices. Of the 678 ILI cases, 23% were vaccinated, a significantly higher percentage than in previous years. A significantly higher percentage of ILI patients were swabbed in 2010 compared to 2003–2008, but similar to 2009, with a similar percentage being positive for influenza as in previous years. Vaccination rates increased with patient age. Melbourne Medical Deputising Service rates peaked in week 35 at 19.1 ILI cases per 1000 consultations. Of the 1914 cases of influenza notified to the Department of Health, Victoria, 1812 (95% were influenza A infections - 1001 (55% pandemic A(H1N1 2009, 4 (<1% A(H3N2 and 807 (45% not subtyped; 88 (5% were influenza B; and 14 (< 1% were influenza A and B co-infections. The World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza tested 403 isolates of which 261 were positive for influenza, 250 of which were influenza A and 11 were influenza B. Ninety-two per cent of the influenza A viruses were pandemic A(H1N1 2009, and following antigenic analysis all of these were found to be similar to the current vaccine strain. Three viruses (0.9% were found to be oseltamivir resistant due to an H275Y mutation in the neuraminidase gene.

  14. Influenza A virus transmission via respiratory aerosols or droplets as it relates to pandemic potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard, Mathilde; Fouchier, Ron A.M.

    2015-01-01

    Many respiratory viruses of humans originate from animals. For instance, there are now eight paramyxoviruses, four coronaviruses and four orthomxoviruses that cause recurrent epidemics in humans but were once confined to other hosts. In the last decade, several members of the same virus families have jumped the species barrier from animals to humans. Fortunately, these viruses have not become established in humans, because they lacked the ability of sustained transmission between humans. However, these outbreaks highlighted the lack of understanding of what makes a virus transmissible. In part triggered by the relatively high frequency of occurrence of influenza A virus zoonoses and pandemics, the influenza research community has started to investigate the viral genetic and biological traits that drive virus transmission via aerosols or respiratory droplets between mammals. Here we summarize recent discoveries on the genetic and phenotypic traits required for airborne transmission of zoonotic influenza viruses of subtypes H5, H7 and H9 and pandemic viruses of subtypes H1, H2 and H3. Increased understanding of the determinants and mechanisms of respiratory virus transmission is not only key from a basic scientific perspective, but may also aid in assessing the risks posed by zoonotic viruses to human health, and preparedness for such risks. PMID:26385895

  15. Key transmission parameters of an institutional outbreak during the 1918 influenza pandemic estimated by mathematical modelling

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    Nelson Peter

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Aim To estimate the key transmission parameters associated with an outbreak of pandemic influenza in an institutional setting (New Zealand 1918. Methods Historical morbidity and mortality data were obtained from the report of the medical officer for a large military camp. A susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered epidemiological model was solved numerically to find a range of best-fit estimates for key epidemic parameters and an incidence curve. Mortality data were subsequently modelled by performing a convolution of incidence distribution with a best-fit incidence-mortality lag distribution. Results Basic reproduction number (R0 values for three possible scenarios ranged between 1.3, and 3.1, and corresponding average latent period and infectious period estimates ranged between 0.7 and 1.3 days, and 0.2 and 0.3 days respectively. The mean and median best-estimate incidence-mortality lag periods were 6.9 and 6.6 days respectively. This delay is consistent with secondary bacterial pneumonia being a relatively important cause of death in this predominantly young male population. Conclusion These R0 estimates are broadly consistent with others made for the 1918 influenza pandemic and are not particularly large relative to some other infectious diseases. This finding suggests that if a novel influenza strain of similar virulence emerged then it could potentially be controlled through the prompt use of major public health measures.

  16. The effects of school closures on influenza outbreaks and pandemics: systematic review of simulation studies.

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    Jackson, Charlotte; Mangtani, Punam; Hawker, Jeremy; Olowokure, Babatunde; Vynnycky, Emilia

    2014-01-01

    School closure is a potential intervention during an influenza pandemic and has been investigated in many modelling studies. To systematically review the effects of school closure on influenza outbreaks as predicted by simulation studies. We searched Medline and Embase for relevant modelling studies published by the end of October 2012, and handsearched key journals. We summarised the predicted effects of school closure on the peak and cumulative attack rates and the duration of the epidemic. We investigated how these predictions depended on the basic reproduction number, the timing and duration of closure and the assumed effects of school closures on contact patterns. School closures were usually predicted to be most effective if they caused large reductions in contact, if transmissibility was low (e.g. a basic reproduction number 90% reductions or even increases under certain assumptions). This partly reflected differences in model assumptions, such as those regarding population contact patterns. Simulation studies suggest that school closure can be a useful control measure during an influenza pandemic, particularly for reducing peak demand on health services. However, it is difficult to accurately quantify the likely benefits. Further studies of the effects of reactive school closures on contact patterns are needed to improve the accuracy of model predictions.

  17. The H1N1 influenza pandemic: need for solutions to ethical problems.

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    Bhatia, Prateek

    2013-01-01

    The rapid spread of the novel influenza virus of H1N1 swine origin led to widespread fear, panic and unrest among the public and healthcare personnel. The pandemic not only tested the world's health preparedness, but also brought up new ethical issues which need to be addressed as soon as possible. This article highlights these issues and suggests ethical answers to the same. The main areas that require attention are the distribution of scarce resources, prioritisation of antiviral drugs and vaccines, obligations of healthcare workers, and adequate dissemination and proper communication of information related to the pandemic. It is of great importance to plan in advance how to confront these issues in an ethical manner. This is possible only if a comprehensive contingency plan is prepared with the involvement of and in consultation with all the stakeholders concerned.

  18. Perspectives about pandemic influenza and its prophylactic measures among final year pharmacy students in Karachi, Pakistan

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    Najia Rahim

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims: In flu pandemics, pharmacy students' knowledge, attitudes, and practices are critical to save patients life. The objective of study was to determine the knowledge of and attitude toward the pandemic influenza among the pharmacy students of Karachi, Pakistan. Settings and Designs: The cross-sectional study was conducted from September to December 2014 by adopting a prevalidated questionnaire distributed to senior pharmacy students (final year in seven private and public sector universities of Karachi. Materials and Methods: A total of 443 pharmacy students responded the survey. Data regarding sociodemographic characteristics of the students, perceptions, level of knowledge and attitudes toward influenza, and prophylactic measures were collected. Statistical Analysis: To compute the correlation between different variables, data were analyzed using Pearson's Chi-square statistic method. P< 0.05 was considered statistical significance for all analysis. Results: Influenza was identified as a viral disease (n = 423; 95.48% and 282 (71.2% students correctly identified it as disease affecting humans and pigs. Textbooks reported as most common source of knowledge (n = 282; 64%. Most common symptoms identified were fever (81.94%, sore throat (64.1%, and nonproductive cough (43.34%. The most common preventive measures were covering nose and mouth (268; 60.5% and wearing protective coverings (254; 57.3%. Only half of the students correctly reported about the route of administration (180; 40.6% and strains in vaccine (186; 41.98%. The best time for administration of such vaccine was known by only 156 pharmacy students (35.34%. The majority of the students (82.6% had no idea about the manifestation of influenza pandemic. Knowledge regarding influenza differed according to gender and institutions differing in their affiliation with tertiary care hospitals. Conclusion: It was observed that knowledge about disease progression, transmission, vaccination

  19. Global Mortality Estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR Project: A Modeling Study

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    Simonsen, Lone; Spreeuwenberg, Peter; Lustig, Roger; Taylor, Robert J.; Fleming, Douglas M.; Kroneman, Madelon; Van Kerkhove, Maria D.; Mounts, Anthony W.; Paget, W. John

    2013-01-01

    Background Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was substantially higher. We estimated the 2009 pandemic mortality burden through statistical modeling of mortality data from multiple countries. Methods and Findings We obtained weekly virology and underlying cause-of-death mortality time series for 2005–2009 for 20 countries covering ∼35% of the world population. We applied a multivariate linear regression model to estimate pandemic respiratory mortality in each collaborating country. We then used these results plus ten country indicators in a multiple imputation model to project the mortality burden in all world countries. Between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic respiratory deaths were estimated globally for the last 9 mo of 2009. The majority (62%–85%) were attributed to persons under 65 y of age. We observed a striking regional heterogeneity, with almost 20-fold higher mortality in some countries in the Americas than in Europe. The model attributed 148,000–249,000 respiratory deaths to influenza in an average pre-pandemic season, with only 19% in persons mortality was ∼10-fold higher than the World Health Organization's laboratory-confirmed mortality count. Although the pandemic mortality estimate was similar in magnitude to that of seasonal influenza, a marked shift toward mortality among persons mortality and hospitalization surveillance data is needed to rapidly establish the severity of future pandemics. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:24302890

  20. Physician privacy concerns when disclosing patient data for public health purposes during a pandemic influenza outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Emam, Khaled; Mercer, Jay; Moreau, Katherine; Grava-Gubins, Inese; Buckeridge, David; Jonker, Elizabeth

    2011-06-09

    Privacy concerns by providers have been a barrier to disclosing patient information for public health purposes. This is the case even for mandated notifiable disease reporting. In the context of a pandemic it has been argued that the public good should supersede an individual's right to privacy. The precise nature of these provider privacy concerns, and whether they are diluted in the context of a pandemic are not known. Our objective was to understand the privacy barriers which could potentially influence family physicians' reporting of patient-level surveillance data to public health agencies during the Fall 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza outbreak. Thirty seven family doctors participated in a series of five focus groups between October 29-31 2009. They also completed a survey about the data they were willing to disclose to public health units. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize the amount of patient detail the participants were willing to disclose, factors that would facilitate data disclosure, and the consensus on those factors. The analysis of the qualitative data was based on grounded theory. The family doctors were reluctant to disclose patient data to public health units. This was due to concerns about the extent to which public health agencies are dependable to protect health information (trusting beliefs), and the possibility of loss due to disclosing health information (risk beliefs). We identified six specific actions that public health units can take which would affect these beliefs, and potentially increase the willingness to disclose patient information for public health purposes. The uncertainty surrounding a pandemic of a new strain of influenza has not changed the privacy concerns of physicians about disclosing patient data. It is important to address these concerns to ensure reliable reporting during future outbreaks.

  1. Epidemiological characteristics of the influenza A(H1N1 2009 pandemic in the Western Pacific Region

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    Lisa McCallum

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The first laboratory-confirmed cases of infection with pandemic influenza A(H1N1 2009 in the Western Pacific Region were reported on 28 April 2009. By 11 June 2009, the day the pandemic was declared by the World Health Organization, nine Western Pacific Region countries and areas had reported laboratory-confirmed pandemic influenza A(H1N1 2009 cases. From April 2009 to July 2010, more than 250 000 cases and 1800 deaths from laboratory-confirmed pandemic influenza A(H1N1 2009 were reported from 34 countries and areas in the Region. By age group region-wide, 8.6%, 41.9%, 48.3%, and 1.2% of cases were in the < 5 years, 5–14 years, 15–64 years, and 65+ years age groups, respectively; the overall crude case fatality ratio in the Western Pacific Region was 0.5%. The pandemic demonstrated that region-wide disease reporting was possible. Countries and areas of the Western Pacific Region should take this opportunity to strengthen the systems established during the pandemic to develop routine disease reporting.

  2. Vaccination against pandemic influenza A/H1N1v in England: a real-time economic evaluation.

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    Baguelin, Marc; Hoek, Albert Jan Van; Jit, Mark; Flasche, Stefan; White, Peter J; Edmunds, W John

    2010-03-11

    Decisions on how to mitigate an evolving pandemic are technically challenging. We present a real-time assessment of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative influenza A/H1N1v vaccination strategies. A transmission dynamic model was fitted to the estimated number of cases in real-time, and used to generate plausible autumn scenarios under different vaccination options. The proportion of these cases by age and risk group leading to primary care consultations, National Pandemic Flu Service consultations, emergency attendances, hospitalisations, intensive care and death was then estimated using existing data from the pandemic. The real-time model suggests that the epidemic will peak in early November, with the peak height being similar in magnitude to the summer wave. Vaccination of the high-risk groups is estimated to prevent about 45 deaths (80% credibility interval 26-67), and save around 2900 QALYs (80% credibility interval 1600-4500). Such a programme is very likely to be cost-effective if the cost of vaccine purchase itself is treated as a sunk cost. Extending vaccination to low-risk individuals is expected to result in more modest gains in deaths and QALYs averted. Extending vaccination to school-age children would be the most cost-effective extension. The early availability of vaccines is crucial in determining the impact of such extensions. There have been a considerable number of cases of H1N1v in England, and so the benefits of vaccination to mitigate the ongoing autumn wave are limited. However, certain groups appear to be at significantly higher risk of complications and deaths, and so it appears both effective and cost-effective to vaccinate them. The United Kingdom was the first country to have a major epidemic in Europe. In countries where the epidemic is not so far advanced vaccination of children may be cost-effective. Similar, detailed, real-time modelling and economic studies could help to clarify the situation.

  3. Surveillance of hospitalizations with pandemic A(H1N1 2009 influenza infection in Queensland, Australia

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    Frances Birrell

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Objective : To describe the demographic and clinical characteristics of patients hospitalized with pandemic A(H1N1 2009 infection in Queensland, Australia between 25 May and 3 October 2009 and to examine the relationship between timing of antiviral treatment and severity of illness.Method: Using data from the Queensland Health EpiLog information system, descriptive analysis and logistic regression modelling were used to describe and model factors which influence patient outcomes (death, admission to intensive care unit and/or special care unit. Data on patients admitted to hospital in Queensland with confirmed pandemic A(H1N1 2009 infection were included in this analysis.Results: 1236 patients with pandemic A(H1N1 2009 infection were admitted to hospitals in Queensland during the study period. Of the total group: 15% were admitted to an intensive care unit or special care unit; 3% died; 34% were under the age of 18 years and 8% were 65 years of age or older; and 55% had at least one underlying medical condition. Among the 842 patients for whom data were available regarding the use of antiviral drugs, antiviral treatment was initiated in 737 (87.5% patients with treatment commencing at a median of one day (range 1–33 days after onset of illness. Admission to an intensive care unit or special care unit (ICU/SCU or death was significantly associated with increased age, lack of timeliness of antiviral treatment, chronic renal disease and morbid obesity.Discussion: Early antiviral treatment was significantly associated with lower likelihood of ICU/SCU admission or death. Early antiviral treatment for influenza cases may therefore have important public health implications.

  4. Healthcare workers as parents: attitudes toward vaccinating their children against pandemic influenza A/H1N1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Torun Fuat

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Both the health care workers (HCWs and children are target groups for pandemic influenza vaccination. The coverage of the target populations is an important determinant for impact of mass vaccination. The objective of this study is to determine the attitudes of HCWs as parents, toward vaccinating their children with pandemic influenza A/H1N1 vaccine. Methods A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted with health care workers (HCWs in a public hospital during December 2009 in Istanbul. All persons employed in the hospital with or without a health-care occupation are accepted as HCW. The HCWs who are parents of children 6 months to 18 years of age were included in the study. Pearson's chi-square test and logistic regression analysis was applied for the statistical analyses. Results A total of 389 HCWs who were parents of children aged 6 months-18 years participated study. Among all participants 27.0% (n = 105 reported that themselves had been vaccinated against pandemic influenza A/H1N1. Two third (66.1% of the parents answered that they will not vaccinate their children, 21.1% already vaccinated and 12.9% were still undecided. Concern about side effect was most reported reason among who had been not vaccinated their children and among undecided parents. The second reason for refusing the pandemic vaccine was concerns efficacy of the vaccine. Media was the only source of information about pandemic influenza in nearly one third of HCWs. Agreement with vaccine safety, self receipt of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 vaccine, and trust in Ministry of Health were found to be associated with the positive attitude toward vaccinating their children against pandemic influenza A/H1N1. Conclusions Persuading parents to accept a new vaccine seems not be easy even if they are HCWs. In order to overcome the barriers among HCWs related to pandemic vaccines, determination of their misinformation, attitudes and behaviors regarding the

  5. Healthcare workers as parents: attitudes toward vaccinating their children against pandemic influenza A/H1N1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torun, Sebahat D; Torun, Fuat; Catak, Binali

    2010-10-10

    Both the health care workers (HCWs) and children are target groups for pandemic influenza vaccination. The coverage of the target populations is an important determinant for impact of mass vaccination. The objective of this study is to determine the attitudes of HCWs as parents, toward vaccinating their children with pandemic influenza A/H1N1 vaccine. A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted with health care workers (HCWs) in a public hospital during December 2009 in Istanbul. All persons employed in the hospital with or without a health-care occupation are accepted as HCW. The HCWs who are parents of children 6 months to 18 years of age were included in the study. Pearson's chi-square test and logistic regression analysis was applied for the statistical analyses. A total of 389 HCWs who were parents of children aged 6 months-18 years participated study. Among all participants 27.0% (n = 105) reported that themselves had been vaccinated against pandemic influenza A/H1N1. Two third (66.1%) of the parents answered that they will not vaccinate their children, 21.1% already vaccinated and 12.9% were still undecided. Concern about side effect was most reported reason among who had been not vaccinated their children and among undecided parents. The second reason for refusing the pandemic vaccine was concerns efficacy of the vaccine. Media was the only source of information about pandemic influenza in nearly one third of HCWs. Agreement with vaccine safety, self receipt of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 vaccine, and trust in Ministry of Health were found to be associated with the positive attitude toward vaccinating their children against pandemic influenza A/H1N1. Persuading parents to accept a new vaccine seems not be easy even if they are HCWs. In order to overcome the barriers among HCWs related to pandemic vaccines, determination of their misinformation, attitudes and behaviors regarding the pandemic influenza vaccination is necessary. Efforts for orienting

  6. Quantifying the risk of pandemic influenza virus evolution by mutation and re-assortment.

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    Reperant, Leslie A; Grenfell, Bryan T; Osterhaus, Albert D M E

    2015-12-08

    Large outbreaks of zoonotic influenza A virus (IAV) infections may presage an influenza pandemic. However, the likelihood that an airborne-transmissible variant evolves upon zoonotic infection or co-infection with zoonotic and seasonal IAVs remains poorly understood, as does the relative importance of accumulating mutations versus re-assortment in this process. Using discrete-time probabilistic models, we determined quantitative probability ranges that transmissible variants with 1-5 mutations and transmissible re-assortants evolve after a given number of zoonotic IAV infections. The systematic exploration of a large population of model parameter values was designed to account for uncertainty and variability in influenza virus infection, epidemiological and evolutionary processes. The models suggested that immunocompromised individuals are at high risk of generating IAV variants with pandemic potential by accumulation of mutations. Yet, both immunocompetent and immunocompromised individuals could generate high viral loads of single and double mutants, which may facilitate their onward transmission and the subsequent accumulation of additional 1-2 mutations in newly-infected individuals. This may result in the evolution of a full transmissible genotype along short chains of contact transmission. Although co-infection with zoonotic and seasonal IAVs was shown to be a rare event, it consistently resulted in high viral loads of re-assortants, which may facilitate their onward transmission among humans. The prevention or limitation of zoonotic IAV infection in immunocompromised and contact individuals, including health care workers, as well as vaccination against seasonal IAVs-limiting the risk of co-infection-should be considered fundamental tools to thwart the evolution of a novel pandemic IAV by accumulation of mutations and re-assortment. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  7. Evolution and adaptation of the pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza virus

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    Ducatez MF

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Mariette F Ducatez, Thomas P Fabrizio, Richard J WebbyDepartment of Infectious Diseases, St Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, TN, USAAbstract: The emergence of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza virus [A(H1N1pdm09] has provided the public health community with many challenges, but also the scientific community with an opportunity to monitor closely its evolution through the processes of drift and shift. To date, and despite having circulated in humans for nearly two years, little antigenic variation has been observed in the A(H1N1pdm09 viruses. However, as the A(H1N1pdm09 virus continues to circulate and the immunologic pressure within the human population increases, future antigenic change is almost a certainty. Several coinfections of A(H1N1pdm09 and seasonal A(H1N1 or A(H3N2 viruses have been observed, but no reassortant viruses have been described in humans, suggesting a lack of fitness of reassortant viruses or a lack of opportunities for interaction of different viral lineages. In contrast, multiple reassortment events have been detected in swine populations between A(H1N1 pdm09 and other endemic swine viruses. Somewhat surprisingly, many of the well characterized influenza virus virulence markers appear to have limited impact on the phenotype of the A(H1N1pdm09 viruses when they have been introduced into mutant viruses in laboratory settings. As such, it is unclear what the evolutionary path of the pandemic virus will be, but the monitoring of any changes in the circulating viruses will remain a global public and animal health priority.Keywords: influenza, pandemic, evolution, adaptation

  8. Genetic diversity of the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1 viruses in Finland.

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    Niina Ikonen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In Finland, the first infections caused by the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1 virus were identified on May 10. During the next three months almost all infections were found from patients who had recently traveled abroad. In September 2009 the pandemic virus started to spread in the general population, leading to localized outbreaks and peak epidemic activity was reached during weeks 43-48. METHODS/RESULTS: The nucleotide sequences of the hemagglutinin (HA and neuraminidase (NA genes from viruses collected from 138 patients were determined. The analyzed viruses represented mild and severe infections and different geographic regions and time periods. Based on HA and NA gene sequences, the Finnish pandemic viruses clustered in four groups. Finnish epidemic viruses and A/California/07/2009 vaccine virus strain varied from 2-8 and 0-5 amino acids in HA and NA molecules, respectively, giving a respective maximal evolution speed of 1.4% and 1.1%. Most amino acid changes in HA and NA molecules accumulated on the surface of the molecule and were partly located in antigenic sites. Three severe infections were detected with a mutation at HA residue 222, in two viruses with a change D222G, and in one virus D222Y. Also viruses with change D222E were identified. All Finnish pandemic viruses were sensitive to oseltamivir having the amino acid histidine at residue 275 of the neuraminidase molecule. CONCLUSIONS: The Finnish pandemic viruses were quite closely related to A/California/07/2009 vaccine virus. Neither in the HA nor in the NA were changes identified that may lead to the selection of a virus with increased epidemic potential or exceptionally high virulence. Continued laboratory-based surveillance of the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1 is important in order to rapidly identify drug resistant viruses and/or virus variants with potential ability to cause severe forms of infection and an ability to circumvent vaccine-induced immunity.

  9. Burden of pediatric influenza A virus infection post swine-flu H1N1 pandemic in Egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khattab, Adel; Shaheen, Malak; Kamel, Terez; El Faramay, Amel; El Rahman, Safaa Abd; Nabil, Dalia; Gouda, Mohamed

    2013-09-01

    To screen children with influenza like illness or with symptoms of acute respiratory tract infections for influenza A virus infection - post swine flu pandemic era - using rapid influenza diagnostic tests. During two years (2010 & 2011), 1 200 children with influenza like illness or acute respiratory tract infections (according to World Health Organization criteria) were recruited. Their ages ranged from 2-60 months. Nasopharyngeal aspirates specimens were collected from all children for rapid influenza A diagnostic test. Influenza A virus rapid test was positive in 47.5% of the children; the majority (89.6%) were presented with lower respiratory tract infections. Respiratory rate and temperature were significantly higher among positive rapid influenza test patients. Influenza A virus infection is still a major cause of respiratory tract infections in Egyptian children. It should be considered in all cases with cough and febrile episodes and influenza like symptoms even post swine flu pandemic. Copyright © 2013 Hainan Medical College. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Will the community nurse continue to function during H1N1 influenza pandemic: a cross-sectional study of Hong Kong community nurses?

    OpenAIRE

    Wong, Eliza LY; Wong, Samuel YS; Kung, Kenny; Cheung, Annie WL; Gao, Tiffany T; Griffiths, Sian

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Background Healthcare workers have been identified as one of the high risk groups for being infected with influenza during influenza pandemic. Potential levels of absenteeism among healthcare workers in hospital settings are high. However, there was no study to explore the attitudes of healthcare workers in community setting towards the preparedness to the novel H1N1 influenza pandemic. The aim of this study was to explore the willingness of community nurses in Hong Kong to work duri...

  11. Reassortant H1N1 influenza virus vaccines protect pigs against pandemic H1N1 influenza virus and H1N2 swine influenza virus challenge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Huanliang; Chen, Yan; Shi, Jianzhong; Guo, Jing; Xin, Xiaoguang; Zhang, Jian; Wang, Dayan; Shu, Yuelong; Qiao, Chuanling; Chen, Hualan

    2011-09-28

    Influenza A (H1N1) virus has caused human influenza outbreaks in a worldwide pandemic since April 2009. Pigs have been found to be susceptible to this influenza virus under experimental and natural conditions, raising concern about their potential role in the pandemic spread of the virus. In this study, we generated a high-growth reassortant virus (SC/PR8) that contains the hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) genes from a novel H1N1 isolate, A/Sichuan/1/2009 (SC/09), and six internal genes from A/Puerto Rico/8/34 (PR8) virus, by genetic reassortment. The immunogenicity and protective efficacy of this reassortant virus were evaluated at different doses in a challenge model using a homologous SC/09 or heterologous A/Swine/Guangdong/1/06(H1N2) virus (GD/06). Two doses of SC/PR8 virus vaccine elicited high-titer serum hemagglutination inhibiting (HI) antibodies specific for the 2009 H1N1 virus and conferred complete protection against challenge with either SC/09 or GD/06 virus, with reduced lung lesions and viral shedding in vaccine-inoculated animals compared with non-vaccinated control animals. These results indicated for the first time that a high-growth SC/PR8 reassortant H1N1 virus exhibits properties that are desirable to be a promising vaccine candidate for use in swine in the event of a pandemic H1N1 influenza. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. [Influenza A/H5N1 virus outbreaks and prepardness to avert flu pandemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haque, A; Lucas, B; Hober, D

    2007-01-01

    This review emphasizes the need to improve the knowledge of the biology of H5N1 virus, a candidate for causing the next influenza pandemic. In-depth knowledge of mode of infection, mechanisms of pathogenesis and immune response will help in devising an efficient and practical control strategy against this flu virus. We have discussed limitations of currently available vaccines and proposed novel approaches for making better vaccines against H5N1 influenza virus. They include cell-culture system, reverse genetics, adjuvant development. Our review has also underscored the concept of therapeutic vaccine (anti-disease vaccine), which is aimed at diminishing 'cytokine storm' seen in acute respiratory distress syndrome and/or hemophagocytosis.

  13. Use of Lean response to improve pandemic influenza surge in public health laboratories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaac-Renton, Judith L; Chang, Yin; Prystajecky, Natalie; Petric, Martin; Mak, Annie; Abbott, Brendan; Paris, Benjamin; Decker, K C; Pittenger, Lauren; Guercio, Steven; Stott, Jeff; Miller, Joseph D

    2012-01-01

    A novel influenza A (H1N1) virus detected in April 2009 rapidly spread around the world. North American provincial and state laboratories have well-defined roles and responsibilities, including providing accurate, timely test results for patients and information for regional public health and other decision makers. We used the multidisciplinary response and rapid implementation of process changes based on Lean methods at the provincial public health laboratory in British Columbia, Canada, to improve laboratory surge capacity in the 2009 influenza pandemic. Observed and computer simulating evaluation results from rapid processes changes showed that use of Lean tools successfully expanded surge capacity, which enabled response to the 10-fold increase in testing demands.

  14. An Analysis of 332 Fatalities Infected with Pandemic 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) in Argentina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balanzat, Ana M.; Hertlein, Christian; Apezteguia, Carlos; Bonvehi, Pablo; Cámera, Luis; Gentile, Angela; Rizzo, Oscar; Gómez-Carrillo, Manuel; Coronado, Fatima; Azziz-Baumgartner, Eduardo; Chávez, Pollyanna R.; Widdowson, Marc-Alain

    2012-01-01

    Background The apparent high number of deaths in Argentina during the 2009 pandemic led to concern that the influenza A H1N1pdm disease was different there. We report the characteristics and risk factors for influenza A H1N1pdm fatalities. Methods We identified laboratory-confirmed influenza A H1N1pdm fatalities occurring during June-July 2009. Physicians abstracted data on age, sex, time of onset of illness, medical history, clinical presentation at admission, laboratory, treatment, and outcomes using standardize questionnaires. We explored the characteristics of fatalities according to their age and risk group. Results Of 332 influenza A H1N1pdm fatalities, 226 (68%) were among persons aged Argentina, though timeliness of antiviral treatment improved during the pandemic. PMID:22506006

  15. Incidence and Epidemiology of Hospitalized Influenza Cases in Rural Thailand during the Influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 Pandemic, 2009–2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baggett, Henry C.; Chittaganpitch, Malinee; Thamthitiwat, Somsak; Prapasiri, Prabda; Naorat, Sathapana; Sawatwong, Pongpun; Ditsungnoen, Darunee; Olsen, Sonja J.; Simmerman, James M.; Srisaengchai, Prasong; Chantra, Somrak; Peruski, Leonard F.; Sawanpanyalert, Pathom; Maloney, Susan A.; Akarasewi, Pasakorn

    2012-01-01

    Background Data on the burden of the 2009 influenza pandemic in Asia are limited. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was first reported in Thailand in May 2009. We assessed incidence and epidemiology of influenza-associated hospitalizations during 2009–2010. Methods We conducted active, population-based surveillance for hospitalized cases of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in all 20 hospitals in two rural provinces. ALRI patients were sampled 1∶2 for participation in an etiology study in which nasopharyngeal swabs were collected for influenza virus testing by PCR. Results Of 7,207 patients tested, 902 (12.5%) were influenza-positive, including 190 (7.8%) of 2,436 children aged incidence of hospitalized influenza cases was 136 per 100,000, highest in ages 75 years (407 per 100,000). The incidence of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was 62 per 100,000 (214 per 100,000 in children <5 years). Eleven influenza-infected patients required mechanical ventilation, and four patients died, all adults with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 (1) or H3N2 (3). Conclusions Influenza-associated hospitalization rates in Thailand during 2009–10 were substantial and exceeded rates described in western countries. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 predominated, but H3N2 also caused notable morbidity. Expanded influenza vaccination coverage could have considerable public health impact, especially in young children. PMID:23139802

  16. Will the community nurse continue to function during H1N1 influenza pandemic: a cross-sectional study of Hong Kong community nurses?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Eliza L Y; Wong, Samuel Y S; Kung, Kenny; Cheung, Annie W L; Gao, Tiffany T; Griffiths, Sian

    2010-04-30

    Healthcare workers have been identified as one of the high risk groups for being infected with influenza during influenza pandemic. Potential levels of absenteeism among healthcare workers in hospital settings are high. However, there was no study to explore the attitudes of healthcare workers in community setting towards the preparedness to the novel H1N1 influenza pandemic. The aim of this study was to explore the willingness of community nurses in Hong Kong to work during H1N1 influenza pandemic. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among all 401 community nurses employed by the Hospital Authority in Hong Kong when the WHO pandemic alert level was 6. The response rate of this study was 66.6%. 76.9% participants reported being "not willing" (33.3%) or "not sure" (43.6%) to take care of patients during H1N1 influenza pandemic. The self-reported reasons for being unwilling to report to duty during H1N1 influenza pandemic were psychological stress (55.0%) and fear of being infected H1N1 influenza (29.2%). The reported unwillingness to report to duty was marginally significantly associated with the request for further training of using infection control clinical guideline (OR: 0.057; CI: 0.25-1.02). Those who reported unwillingness or not being sure about taking care of the patients during H1N1 influenza pandemic were more depressed (p work more emotionally stressful (p < 0.001). Interventions to provide infection control training and address community nurses' psychological needs might increase their willingness to provide care to patients in the community during H1N1 influenza pandemic. This would help to ensure an effective and appropriate health system response during the H1N1 influenza pandemic.

  17. Will the community nurse continue to function during H1N1 influenza pandemic: a cross-sectional study of Hong Kong community nurses?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gao Tiffany T

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Healthcare workers have been identified as one of the high risk groups for being infected with influenza during influenza pandemic. Potential levels of absenteeism among healthcare workers in hospital settings are high. However, there was no study to explore the attitudes of healthcare workers in community setting towards the preparedness to the novel H1N1 influenza pandemic. The aim of this study was to explore the willingness of community nurses in Hong Kong to work during H1N1 influenza pandemic. Methods A cross-sectional survey was conducted among all 401 community nurses employed by the Hospital Authority in Hong Kong when the WHO pandemic alert level was 6. Results The response rate of this study was 66.6%. 76.9% participants reported being "not willing" (33.3% or "not sure" (43.6% to take care of patients during H1N1 influenza pandemic. The self-reported reasons for being unwilling to report to duty during H1N1 influenza pandemic were psychological stress (55.0% and fear of being infected H1N1 influenza (29.2%. The reported unwillingness to report to duty was marginally significantly associated with the request for further training of using infection control clinical guideline (OR: 0.057; CI: 0.25-1.02. Those who reported unwillingness or not being sure about taking care of the patients during H1N1 influenza pandemic were more depressed (p Conclusions Interventions to provide infection control training and address community nurses' psychological needs might increase their willingness to provide care to patients in the community during H1N1 influenza pandemic. This would help to ensure an effective and appropriate health system response during the H1N1 influenza pandemic.

  18. Use of nonpharmaceutical interventions to reduce transmission of 2009 pandemic influenza A (pH1N1) in Pennsylvania public schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Jeffrey R; Short, Vanessa L; Wu, Henry M; Waller, Kirsten; Mead, Paul; Kahn, Emily; Bahn, Beth A; Dale, Jon W; Nasrullah, Muazzam; Walton, Sabrina E; Urdaneta, Veronica; Ostroff, Stephen; Averhoff, Francisco

    2013-04-01

    School-based recommendations for nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were issued in response to the threat of 2009 pandemic influenza A (pH1N1). The implementation and effectiveness of these recommendations has not been assessed. In November 2009, a Web-based survey of all Pennsylvania public schools was conducted to assess the use of recommended NPIs. Overall, 1040 (31%) of 3351 schools participated in the survey. By fall 2009, 820 (84%) of 979 respondents reported that their school had an influenza plan in place, a 44% higher proportion than in the spring 2009 (p schools communicated health messages (eg, staying home when sick), implemented return to school requirements, and made hand sanitizer available. Schools with a spring influenza plan (N = 568) were less likely to report substantial influenza-like illness (ILI) during the fall wave of influenza than the 299 schools without a spring influenza plan (63% vs 71%, p = .02). This association persisted after controlling for schools with substantial ILI in the spring. The reported use of NPIs in participating Pennsylvania public schools improved substantially from spring to fall and was generally consistent with issued recommendations. The proactive implementation of a number of NPIs and the early implementation of communication and education initiatives might have cumulatively reduced the impact of pH1N1 in some schools. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  19. Morbid obesity as a risk factor for hospitalization and death due to 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1 disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliver W Morgan

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Severe illness due to 2009 pandemic A(H1N1 infection has been reported among persons who are obese or morbidly obese. We assessed whether obesity is a risk factor for hospitalization and death due to 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1, independent of chronic medical conditions considered by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP to increase the risk of influenza-related complications. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used a case-cohort design to compare cases of hospitalizations and deaths from 2009 pandemic A(H1N1 influenza occurring between April-July, 2009, with a cohort of the U.S. population estimated from the 2003-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES; pregnant women and children or=20 year olds, hospitalization was associated with being morbidly obese (BMI>or=40 for individuals with ACIP-recognized chronic conditions (OR = 4.9, 95% CI 2.4-9.9 and without ACIP-recognized chronic conditions (OR = 4.7, 95%CI 1.3-17.2. Among 2-19 year olds, hospitalization was associated with being underweight (BMIor=20 years without ACIP-recognized chronic medical conditions death was associated with obesity (OR = 3.1, 95%CI: 1.5-6.6 and morbid obesity (OR = 7.6, 95%CI 2.1-27.9. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings support observations that morbid obesity may be associated with hospitalization and possibly death due to 2009 pandemic H1N1 infection. These complications could be prevented by early antiviral therapy and vaccination.

  20. Hedging against antiviral resistance during the next influenza pandemic using small stockpiles of an alternative chemotherapy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph T Wu

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The effectiveness of single-drug antiviral interventions to reduce morbidity and mortality during the next influenza pandemic will be substantially weakened if transmissible strains emerge which are resistant to the stockpiled antiviral drugs. We developed a mathematical model to test the hypothesis that a small stockpile of a secondary antiviral drug could be used to mitigate the adverse consequences of the emergence of resistant strains.We used a multistrain stochastic transmission model of influenza to show that the spread of antiviral resistance can be significantly reduced by deploying a small stockpile (1% population coverage of a secondary drug during the early phase of local epidemics. We considered two strategies for the use of the secondary stockpile: early combination chemotherapy (ECC; individuals are treated with both drugs in combination while both are available; and sequential multidrug chemotherapy (SMC; individuals are treated only with the secondary drug until it is exhausted, then treated with the primary drug. We investigated all potentially important regions of unknown parameter space and found that both ECC and SMC reduced the cumulative attack rate (AR and the resistant attack rate (RAR unless the probability of emergence of resistance to the primary drug p(A was so low (less than 1 in 10,000 that resistance was unlikely to be a problem or so high (more than 1 in 20 that resistance emerged as soon as primary drug monotherapy began. For example, when the basic reproductive number was 1.8 and 40% of symptomatic individuals were treated with antivirals, AR and RAR were 67% and 38% under monotherapy if p(A = 0.01. If the probability of resistance emergence for the secondary drug was also 0.01, then SMC reduced AR and RAR to 57% and 2%. The effectiveness of ECC was similar if combination chemotherapy reduced the probabilities of resistance emergence by at least ten times. We extended our model using travel data between 105

  1. Adaptation of high-growth influenza H5N1 vaccine virus in Vero cells: implications for pandemic preparedness.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Fen Tseng

    Full Text Available Current egg-based influenza vaccine production technology can't promptly meet the global demand during an influenza pandemic as shown in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Moreover, its manufacturing capacity would be vulnerable during pandemics caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses. Therefore, vaccine production using mammalian cell technology is becoming attractive. Current influenza H5N1 vaccine strain (NIBRG-14, a reassortant virus between A/Vietnam/1194/2004 (H5N1 virus and egg-adapted high-growth A/PR/8/1934 virus, could grow efficiently in eggs and MDCK cells but not Vero cells which is the most popular cell line for manufacturing human vaccines. After serial passages and plaque purifications of the NIBRG-14 vaccine virus in Vero cells, one high-growth virus strain (Vero-15 was generated and can grow over 10(8 TCID(50/ml. In conclusion, one high-growth H5N1 vaccine virus was generated in Vero cells, which can be used to manufacture influenza H5N1 vaccines and prepare reassortant vaccine viruses for other influenza A subtypes.

  2. The health and economic impact of vaccination with 7-valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV7) during an annual influenza epidemic and influenza pandemic in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldwell, Ronald; Roberts, Craig S; An, Zhijie; Chen, Chieh-I; Wang, Bruce

    2015-07-24

    China has experienced several severe outbreaks of influenza over the past century: 1918, 1957, 1968, and 2009. Influenza itself can be deadly; however, the increase in mortality during an influenza outbreak is also attributable to secondary bacterial infections, specifically pneumococcal disease. Given the history of pandemic outbreaks and the associated morbidity and mortality, we investigated the cost-effectiveness of a PCV7 vaccination program in China from the context of typical and pandemic influenza seasons. A decision-analytic model was employed to evaluate the impact of a 7-valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV7) infant vaccination program on the incidence, mortality, and cost associated with pneumococcal disease during a typical influenza season (15% flu incidence) and influenza pandemic (30% flu incidence) in China. The model incorporated Chinese data where available and included both direct and indirect (herd) effects on the unvaccinated population, assuming a point in time following the initial introduction of the vaccine where the impact of the indirect effects has reached a steady state, approximately seven years following the implementation of the vaccine program. Pneumococcal disease incidence, mortality, and costs were evaluated over a one year time horizon. Healthcare costs were calculated using a payer perspective and included vaccination program costs and direct medical expenditures from pneumococcal disease. The model predicted that routine PCV7 vaccination of infants in China would prevent 5,053,453 cases of pneumococcal disease and 76,714 deaths in a single year during a normal influenza season.The estimated incremental-cost-effectiveness ratios were ¥12,281 (US$1,900) per life-year saved and ¥13,737 (US$2,125) per quality-adjusted-life-year gained. During an influenza pandemic, the model estimated that routine vaccination with PCV7 would prevent 8,469,506 cases of pneumococcal disease and 707,526 deaths, and would be cost-saving. Routine

  3. EFSA Panel on Animal Health and Welfare (AHAW); Scientific Opinion on monitoring for the emergence of possible new pandemic strains of influenza in animals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøtner, Anette; Capua, Ilaria; Gatherer, Derek

    Following the emergence in 2009 of the new pandemic H1N1 influenza virus, which contained gene segments from pig, bird and human influenza viruses, it was apparent that a better scientific understanding is required of influenza viruses to protect public and animal health. The latest scientific da...

  4. 'Spanish' flu and army horses : What historians and biologists can learn from a history of animals with flu during the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haalboom, Floor

    2014-01-01

    At the time of the 1918-1919 ‘Spanish' influenza pandemic, influenza researchers did not just relate this disease to the human population, despite the focus of historians of medicine on its human aspects and meanings. In line with the use of historical reports of animals with influenza in

  5. A polyvalent influenza A DNA vaccine induces heterologous immunity and protects pigs against pandemic A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bragstad, Karoline; Vinner, Lasse; Hansen, Mette Sif

    2013-01-01

    seasonal and emerging influenza viruses. We have developed an alternative influenza vaccine based on DNA expressing selected influenza proteins of pandemic and seasonal origin. In the current study, we investigated the protection of a polyvalent influenza DNA vaccine approach in pigs. We immunised pigs...... intradermally with a combination of influenza DNA vaccine components based on the pandemic 1918 H1N1 (M and NP genes), pandemic 2009 H1N1pdm09 (HA and NA genes) and seasonal 2005 H3N2 genes (HA and NA genes) and investigated the protection against infection with virus both homologous and heterologous to the DNA...... of this DNA vaccine to limit virus shedding may have an impact on virus spread among pigs which could possibly extend to humans as well, thereby diminishing the risk for epidemics and pandemics to evolve....

  6. Willingness to accept H1N1 pandemic influenza vaccine: A cross-sectional study of Hong Kong community nurses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wong Carmen

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The 2009 pandemic of influenza A (H1N1 infection has alerted many governments to make preparedness plan to control the spread of influenza A (H1N1 infection. Vaccination for influenza is one of the most important primary preventative measures to reduce the disease burden. Our study aims to assess the willingness of nurses who work for the community nursing service (CNS in Hong Kong on their acceptance of influenza A (H1N1 influenza vaccination. Methods 401 questionnaires were posted from June 24, 2009 to June 30, 2009 to community nurses with 67% response rate. Results of the 267 respondents on their willingness to accept influenza A (H1N1 vaccine were analyzed. Results Twenty-seven percent of respondents were willing to accept influenza vaccination if vaccines were available. Having been vaccinated for seasonable influenza in the previous 12 months were significantly independently associated with their willingness to accept influenza A (H1N1 vaccination (OR = 4.03; 95% CI: 2.03-7.98. Conclusions Similar to previous findings conducted in hospital healthcare workers and nurses, we confirmed that the willingness of community nurses to accept influenza A (H1N1 vaccination is low. Future studies that evaluate interventions to address nurses' specific concerns or interventions that aim to raise the awareness among nurses on the importance of influenza A (H1N1 vaccination to protect vulnerable patient populations is needed.

  7. Computer Simulation as a Tool for Assessing Decision-Making in Pandemic Influenza Response Training

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    James M Leaming

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: We sought to develop and test a computer-based, interactive simulation of a hypothetical pandemic influenza outbreak. Fidelity was enhanced with integrated video and branching decision trees, built upon the 2007 federal planning assumptions. We conducted a before-and-after study of the simulation effectiveness to assess the simulations’ ability to assess participants’ beliefs regarding their own hospitals’ mass casualty incident preparedness.Methods: Development: Using a Delphi process, we finalized a simulation that serves up a minimum of over 50 key decisions to 6 role-players on networked laptops in a conference area. The simulation played out an 8-week scenario, beginning with pre-incident decisions. Testing: Role-players and trainees (N=155 were facilitated to make decisions during the pandemic. Because decision responses vary, the simulation plays out differently, and a casualty counter quantifies hypothetical losses. The facilitator reviews and critiques key factors for casualty control, including effective communications, working with external organizations, development of internal policies and procedures, maintaining supplies and services, technical infrastructure support, public relations and training. Pre- and post-survey data were compared on trainees.Results: Post-simulation trainees indicated a greater likelihood of needing to improve their organization in terms of communications, mass casualty incident planning, public information and training. Participants also recognized which key factors required immediate attention at their own home facilities.Conclusion: The use of a computer-simulation was effective in providing a facilitated environment for determining the perception of preparedness, evaluating general preparedness concepts and introduced participants to critical decisions involved in handling a regional pandemic influenza surge. [West J Emerg Med. 2013;14(3:236–242.

  8. Comparison of CATs, CURB-65 and PMEWS as triage tools in pandemic influenza admissions to UK hospitals: case control analysis using retrospective data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myles, Puja R; Nguyen-Van-Tam, Jonathan S; Lim, Wei Shen; Nicholson, Karl G; Brett, Stephen J; Enstone, Joanne E; McMenamin, James; Openshaw, Peter J M; Read, Robert C; Taylor, Bruce L; Bannister, Barbara; Semple, Malcolm G

    2012-01-01

    Triage tools have an important role in pandemics to identify those most likely to benefit from higher levels of care. We compared Community Assessment Tools (CATs), the CURB-65 score, and the Pandemic Medical Early Warning Score (PMEWS); to predict higher levels of care (high dependency--Level 2 or intensive care--Level 3) and/or death in patients at or shortly after admission to hospital with A/H1N1 2009 pandemic influenza. This was a case-control analysis using retrospectively collected data from the FLU-CIN cohort (1040 adults, 480 children) with PCR-confirmed A/H1N1 2009 influenza. Area under receiver operator curves (AUROC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values and negative predictive values were calculated. CATs best predicted Level 2/3 admissions in both adults [AUROC (95% CI): CATs 0.77 (0.73, 0.80); CURB-65 0.68 (0.64, 0.72); PMEWS 0.68 (0.64, 0.73), ptools for predicting need for higher levels of care and/or mortality in patients of all ages.

  9. Approximate Bayesian algorithm to estimate the basic reproduction number in an influenza pandemic using arrival times of imported cases.

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    Chong, Ka Chun; Zee, Benny Chung Ying; Wang, Maggie Haitian

    2018-04-10

    In an influenza pandemic, arrival times of cases are a proxy of the epidemic size and disease transmissibility. Because of intense surveillance of travelers from infected countries, detection is more rapid and complete than on local surveillance. Travel information can provide a more reliable estimation of transmission parameters. We developed an Approximate Bayesian Computation algorithm to estimate the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) in addition to the reporting rate and unobserved epidemic start time, utilizing travel, and routine surveillance data in an influenza pandemic. A simulation was conducted to assess the sampling uncertainty. The estimation approach was further applied to the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in Mexico as a case study. In the simulations, we showed that the estimation approach was valid and reliable in different simulation settings. We also found estimates of R 0 and the reporting rate to be 1.37 (95% Credible Interval [CI]: 1.26-1.42) and 4.9% (95% CI: 0.1%-18%), respectively, in the 2009 influenza pandemic in Mexico, which were robust to variations in the fixed parameters. The estimated R 0 was consistent with that in the literature. This method is useful for officials to obtain reliable estimates of disease transmissibility for strategic planning. We suggest that improvements to the flow of reporting for confirmed cases among patients arriving at different countries are required. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Preclinical evaluation of the saponin derivative GPI-0100 as an immunostimulating and dose-sparing adjuvant for pandemic influenza vaccines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, Heng; Bungener, Laura; ter Veer, Wouter; Coller, Beth-Ann; Wilschut, Jan; Huckriede, Anke

    2011-01-01

    With the current global influenza vaccine production capacity the large demand for vaccines in case of a pandemic can only be fulfilled when antigen dose sparing strategies are employed. Here we used a murine challenge model to evaluate the potential of GPI-0100, a semi-synthetic saponin derivative,

  11. The Scourge of Asian Flu: In Utero Exposure to Pandemic Influenza and the Development of a Cohort of British Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Elaine

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of in utero exposure to the Asian influenza pandemic of 1957 upon childhood development. Outcome data are provided by the National Child Development Study (NCDS), a panel study where all members were potentially exposed in the womb. Epidemic effects are identified using geographic variation in a surrogate measure of…

  12. [Survey about responsiveness of third-level hospitals to a medical disaster: after the pandemic influenza in Mexico].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serna-Ojeda, Juan Carlos; Castañón-González, Jorge Alberto; Macías, Alejandro E; Mansilla-Olivares, Armando; Domínguez-Cherit, Guillermo; Polanco-González, Carlos

    2012-01-01

    The recent pandemic influenza AH1N1 virus made it clear that planning for medical disaster response is critical. To know the responsiveness of a sample of highly specialized hospitals in Mexico to a medical disaster, with the previous pandemic influenza AH1N1 as reference. A survey was conducted among the Medical Directors of a sample of highly specialized hospitals, covering: previous experience with the pandemic influenza, space considerations, material resources, staff, logistics, and current general perspectives. Descriptive statistics were used for analysis. A 95% response was obtained from the institutions (19 hospitals). Of these, 47.4% considered that the medical institution was not ready to respond to pandemic influenza. The median surge capacity for the Intensive Care Unit beds was 30% (range 0 to 32 beds). The least reserve in medication was found in the antivirals (26.3%). Only 47.4% considered having enough intensive care nurses and 57.9% enough respiratory technicians; 42.1% would not have an easy access to resources in an emergency. Prevention is key in responsiveness to medical disasters, and therefore the basic steps for planning strategies must be considered.

  13. Multiple estimates of transmissibility for the 2009 influenza pandemic based on influenza-like-illness data from small US military populations.

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    Pete Riley

    Full Text Available Rapidly characterizing the amplitude and variability in transmissibility of novel human influenza strains as they emerge is a key public health priority. However, comparison of early estimates of the basic reproduction number during the 2009 pandemic were challenging because of inconsistent data sources and methods. Here, we define and analyze influenza-like-illness (ILI case data from 2009-2010 for the 50 largest spatially distinct US military installations (military population defined by zip code, MPZ. We used publicly available data from non-military sources to show that patterns of ILI incidence in many of these MPZs closely followed the pattern of their enclosing civilian population. After characterizing the broad patterns of incidence (e.g. single-peak, double-peak, we defined a parsimonious SIR-like model with two possible values for intrinsic transmissibility across three epochs. We fitted the parameters of this model to data from all 50 MPZs, finding them to be reasonably well clustered with a median (mean value of 1.39 (1.57 and standard deviation of 0.41. An increasing temporal trend in transmissibility ([Formula: see text], p-value: 0.013 during the period of our study was robust to the removal of high transmissibility outliers and to the removal of the smaller 20 MPZs. Our results demonstrate the utility of rapidly available - and consistent - data from multiple populations.

  14. Inspecting the Mechanism: A Longitudinal Analysis of Socioeconomic Status Differences in Perceived Influenza Risks, Vaccination Intentions, and Vaccination Behaviors during the 2009-2010 Influenza Pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maurer, Jürgen

    2016-10-01

    Influenza vaccination is strongly associated with socioeconomic status, but there is only limited evidence on the respective roles of socioeconomic differences in vaccination intentions versus corresponding differences in follow-through on initial vaccination plans for subsequent socioeconomic differences in vaccine uptake. Nonparametric mean smoothing, linear regression, and probit models were used to analyze longitudinal survey data on perceived influenza risks, behavioral vaccination intentions, and vaccination behavior of adults during the 2009-2010 influenza A/H1N1 ("swine flu") pandemic in the United States. Perceived influenza risks and behavioral vaccination intentions were elicited prior to the availability of H1N1 vaccine using a probability scale question format. H1N1 vaccine uptake was assessed at the end of the pandemic. Education, income, and health insurance coverage displayed positive associations with behavioral intentions to get vaccinated for pandemic influenza while employment was negatively associated with stated H1N1 vaccination intentions. Education and health insurance coverage also displayed significant positive associations with pandemic vaccine uptake. Moreover, behavioral vaccination intentions showed a strong and statistically significant positive partial association with later H1N1 vaccination. Incorporating vaccination intentions in a statistical model for H1N1 vaccine uptake further highlighted higher levels of follow-through on initial vaccination plans among persons with higher education levels and health insurance. Sampling bias, misreporting in self-reported data, and limited generalizability to nonpandemic influenza are potential limitations of the analysis. Closing the socioeconomic gap in influenza vaccination requires multipronged strategies that not only increase vaccination intentions by improving knowledge, attitudes, and beliefs but also facilitate follow-through on initial vaccination plans by improving behavioral

  15. Lessons from pandemic influenza A(H1N1): the research-based vaccine industry's perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abelin, Atika; Colegate, Tony; Gardner, Stephen; Hehme, Norbert; Palache, Abraham

    2011-02-01

    As A(H1N1) influenza enters the post-pandemic phase, health authorities around the world are reviewing the response to the pandemic. To ensure this process enhances future preparations, it is essential that perspectives are included from all relevant stakeholders, including vaccine manufacturers. This paper outlines the contribution of R&D-based influenza vaccine producers to the pandemic response, and explores lessons that can be learned to improve future preparedness. The emergence of 2009 A(H1N1) influenza led to unprecedented collaboration between global health authorities, scientists and manufacturers, resulting in the most comprehensive pandemic response ever undertaken, with a number of vaccines approved for use three months after the pandemic declaration. This response was only possible because of the extensive preparations undertaken during the last decade. During this period, manufacturers greatly increased influenza vaccine production capacity, and estimates suggest a further doubling of capacity by 2014. Producers also introduced cell-culture technology, while adjuvant and whole virion technologies significantly reduced pandemic vaccine antigen content. This substantially increased pandemic vaccine production capacity, which in July 2009 WHO estimated reached 4.9 billion doses per annum. Manufacturers also worked with health authorities to establish risk management plans for robust vaccine surveillance during the pandemic. Individual producers pledged significant donations of vaccine doses and tiered-pricing approaches for developing country supply. Based on the pandemic experience, a number of improvements would strengthen future preparedness. Technical improvements to rapidly select optimal vaccine viruses, and processes to speed up vaccine standardization, could accelerate and extend vaccine availability. Establishing vaccine supply agreements beforehand would avoid the need for complex discussions during a period of intense time pressure. Enhancing

  16. Humoral and cell-mediated immunity to pandemic H1N1 influenza in a Canadian cohort one year post-pandemic: implications for vaccination.

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    Lisa E Wagar

    Full Text Available We evaluated a cohort of Canadian donors for T cell and antibody responses against influenza A/California/7/2009 (pH1N1 at 8-10 months after the 2nd pandemic wave by flow cytometry and microneutralization assays. Memory CD8 T cell responses to pH1N1 were detectable in 58% (61/105 of donors. These responses were largely due to cross-reactive CD8 T cell epitopes as, for those donors tested, similar recall responses were obtained to A/California 2009 and A/PR8 1934 H1N1 Hviruses. Longitudinal analysis of a single infected individual showed only a small and transient increase in neutralizing antibody levels, but a robust CD8 T cell response that rose rapidly post symptom onset, peaking at 3 weeks, followed by a gradual decline to the baseline levels seen in a seroprevalence cohort post-pandemic. The magnitude of the influenza-specific CD8 T cell memory response at one year post-pandemic was similar in cases and controls as well as in vaccinated and unvaccinated donors, suggesting that any T cell boosting from infection was transient. Pandemic H1-specific antibodies were only detectable in approximately half of vaccinated donors. However, those who were vaccinated within a few months following infection had the highest persisting antibody titers, suggesting that vaccination shortly after influenza infection can boost or sustain antibody levels. For the most part the circulating influenza-specific T cell and serum antibody levels in the population at one year post-pandemic were not different between cases and controls, suggesting that natural infection does not lead to higher long term T cell and antibody responses in donors with pre-existing immunity to influenza. However, based on the responses of one longitudinal donor, it is possible for a small population of pre-existing cross-reactive memory CD8 T cells to expand rapidly following infection and this response may aid in viral clearance and contribute to a lessening of disease severity.

  17. Model-Based Comprehensive Analysis of School Closure Policies for Mitigating Influenza Epidemics and Pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fumanelli, Laura; Ajelli, Marco; Merler, Stefano; Ferguson, Neil M; Cauchemez, Simon

    2016-01-01

    School closure policies are among the non-pharmaceutical measures taken into consideration to mitigate influenza epidemics and pandemics spread. However, a systematic review of the effectiveness of alternative closure policies has yet to emerge. Here we perform a model-based analysis of four types of school closure, ranging from the nationwide closure of all schools at the same time to reactive gradual closure, starting from class-by-class, then grades and finally the whole school. We consider policies based on triggers that are feasible to monitor, such as school absenteeism and national ILI surveillance system. We found that, under specific constraints on the average number of weeks lost per student, reactive school-by-school, gradual, and county-wide closure give comparable outcomes in terms of optimal infection attack rate reduction, peak incidence reduction or peak delay. Optimal implementations generally require short closures of one week each; this duration is long enough to break the transmission chain without leading to unnecessarily long periods of class interruption. Moreover, we found that gradual and county closures may be slightly more easily applicable in practice as they are less sensitive to the value of the excess absenteeism threshold triggering the start of the intervention. These findings suggest that policy makers could consider school closure policies more diffusely as response strategy to influenza epidemics and pandemics, and the fact that some countries already have some experience of gradual or regional closures for seasonal influenza outbreaks demonstrates that logistic and feasibility challenges of school closure strategies can be to some extent overcome.

  18. Decision Making with Regard to Antiviral Intervention during an Influenza Pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shim, Eunha; Chapman, Gretchen B.; Galvani, Alison P.

    2012-01-01

    Background Antiviral coverage is defined by the proportion of the population that takes antiviral prophylaxis or treatment. High coverage of an antiviral drug has epidemiological and evolutionary repercussions. Antivirals select for drug resistance within the population, and individuals may experience adverse effects. To determine optimal antiviral coverage in the context of an influenza outbreak, we compared 2 perspectives: 1) the individual level (the Nash perspective), and 2) the population level (utilitarian perspective). Methods We developed an epidemiological game-theoretic model of an influenza pandemic. The data sources were published literature and a national survey. The target population was the US population. The time horizon was 6 months. The perspective was individuals and the population overall. The interventions were antiviral prophylaxis and treatment. The outcome measures were the optimal coverage of antivirals in an influenza pandemic. Results At current antiviral pricing, the optimal Nash strategy is 0% coverage for prophylaxis and 30% coverage for treatment, whereas the optimal utilitarian strategy is 19% coverage for prophylaxis and 100% coverage for treatment. Subsidizing prophylaxis by $440 and treatment by $85 would bring the Nash and utilitarian strategies into alignment. For both prophylaxis and treatment, the optimal antiviral coverage decreases as pricing of antivirals increases. Our study does not incorporate the possibility of an effective vaccine and lacks probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Our survey also does not completely represent the US population. Because our model assumes a homogeneous population and homogeneous antiviral pricing, it does not incorporate heterogeneity of preference. Conclusions The optimal antiviral coverage from the population perspective and individual perspectives differs widely for both prophylaxis and treatment strategies. Optimal population and individual strategies for prophylaxis and treatment might

  19. The economy-wide impact of pandemic influenza on the UK: a computable general equilibrium modelling experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Richard D; Keogh-Brown, Marcus R; Barnett, Tony; Tait, Joyce

    2009-11-19

    To estimate the potential economic impact of pandemic influenza, associated behavioural responses, school closures, and vaccination on the United Kingdom. A computable general equilibrium model of the UK economy was specified for various combinations of mortality and morbidity from pandemic influenza, vaccine efficacy, school closures, and prophylactic absenteeism using published data. The 2004 UK economy (the most up to date available with suitable economic data). The economic impact of various scenarios with different pandemic severity, vaccination, school closure, and prophylactic absenteeism specified in terms of gross domestic product, output from different economic sectors, and equivalent variation. The costs related to illness alone ranged between 0.5% and 1.0% of gross domestic product ( pound8.4bn to pound16.8bn) for low fatality scenarios, 3.3% and 4.3% ( pound55.5bn to pound72.3bn) for high fatality scenarios, and larger still for an extreme pandemic. School closure increases the economic impact, particularly for mild pandemics. If widespread behavioural change takes place and there is large scale prophylactic absence from work, the economic impact would be notably increased with few health benefits. Vaccination with a pre-pandemic vaccine could save 0.13% to 2.3% of gross domestic product ( pound2.2bn to pound38.6bn); a single dose of a matched vaccine could save 0.3% to 4.3% ( pound5.0bn to pound72.3bn); and two doses of a matched vaccine could limit the overall economic impact to about 1% of gross domestic product for all disease scenarios. Balancing school closure against "business as usual" and obtaining sufficient stocks of effective vaccine are more important factors in determining the economic impact of an influenza pandemic than is the disease itself. Prophylactic absence from work in response to fear of infection can add considerably to the economic impact.

  20. Estimates of pandemic influenza vaccine effectiveness in Europe, 2009-2010: results of Influenza Monitoring Vaccine Effectiveness in Europe (I-MOVE multicentre case-control study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Valenciano

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A multicentre case-control study based on sentinel practitioner surveillance networks from seven European countries was undertaken to estimate the effectiveness of 2009-2010 pandemic and seasonal influenza vaccines against medically attended influenza-like illness (ILI laboratory-confirmed as pandemic influenza A (H1N1 (pH1N1. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Sentinel practitioners swabbed ILI patients using systematic sampling. We included in the study patients meeting the European ILI case definition with onset of symptoms >14 days after the start of national pandemic vaccination campaigns. We compared pH1N1 cases to influenza laboratory-negative controls. A valid vaccination corresponded to >14 days between receiving a dose of vaccine and symptom onset. We estimated pooled vaccine effectiveness (VE as 1 minus the odds ratio with the study site as a fixed effect. Using logistic regression, we adjusted VE for potential confounding factors (age group, sex, month of onset, chronic diseases and related hospitalizations, smoking history, seasonal influenza vaccinations, practitioner visits in previous year. We conducted a complete case analysis excluding individuals with missing values and a multiple multivariate imputation to estimate missing values. The multivariate imputation (n = 2902 adjusted pandemic VE (PIVE estimates were 71.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 45.6-85.5 overall; 78.4% (95% CI 54.4-89.8 in patients <65 years; and 72.9% (95% CI 39.8-87.8 in individuals without chronic disease. The complete case (n = 1,502 adjusted PIVE were 66.0% (95% CI 23.9-84.8, 71.3% (95% CI 29.1-88.4, and 70.2% (95% CI 19.4-89.0, respectively. The adjusted PIVE was 66.0% (95% CI -69.9 to 93.2 if vaccinated 8-14 days before ILI onset. The adjusted 2009-2010 seasonal influenza VE was 9.9% (95% CI -65.2 to 50.9. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest good protection of the pandemic monovalent vaccine against medically attended pH1N1 and no effect of the

  1. Fully human broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibodies against influenza A viruses generated from the memory B cells of a 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccine recipient

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Weibin [Molecular Virus Unit, Key Laboratory of Molecular Virology and Immunology, Institut Pasteur of Shanghai, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 200025 (China); Chen, Aizhong [Key Laboratory of Molecular Cell Biology, Institute of Biochemistry and Cell Biology, Shanghai Institutes for Biological Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 200031 (China); Miao, Yi [Shanghai Xuhui Central Hospital, Shanghai 200031 (China); Xia, Shengli [Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Henan Province, Zhengzhou 450016 (China); Ling, Zhiyang; Xu, Ke; Wang, Tongyan [Molecular Virus Unit, Key Laboratory of Molecular Virology and Immunology, Institut Pasteur of Shanghai, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 200025 (China); Xu, Ying; Cui, Jun; Wu, Hongqiang; Hu, Guiyu; Tian, Lin; Wang, Lingling [Key Laboratory of Molecular Cell Biology, Institute of Biochemistry and Cell Biology, Shanghai Institutes for Biological Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 200031 (China); Shu, Yuelong [Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206 (China); Ma, Xiaowei [Hualan Biological Bacterin Company, Xinxiang 453003 (China); Xu, Bianli; Zhang, Jin [Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Henan Province, Zhengzhou 450016 (China); Lin, Xiaojun, E-mail: linxiaojun@hualan.com [Hualan Biological Bacterin Company, Xinxiang 453003 (China); Bian, Chao, E-mail: cbian@sibs.ac.cn [Key Laboratory of Molecular Cell Biology, Institute of Biochemistry and Cell Biology, Shanghai Institutes for Biological Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 200031 (China); Sun, Bing, E-mail: bsun@sibs.ac.cn [Molecular Virus Unit, Key Laboratory of Molecular Virology and Immunology, Institut Pasteur of Shanghai, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 200025 (China); Key Laboratory of Molecular Cell Biology, Institute of Biochemistry and Cell Biology, Shanghai Institutes for Biological Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 200031 (China)

    2013-01-20

    Whether the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccine can induce heterosubtypic cross-protective anti-hemagglutinin (HA) neutralizing antibodies is an important issue. We obtained a panel of fully human monoclonal antibodies from the memory B cells of a 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccine recipient. Most of the monoclonal antibodies targeted the HA protein but not the HA1 fragment. Among the analyzed antibodies, seven mAbs exhibited neutralizing activity against several influenza A viruses of different subtypes. The conserved linear epitope targeted by the neutralizing mAbs (FIEGGWTGMVDGWYGYHH) is part of the fusion peptide on HA2. Our work suggests that a heterosubtypic neutralizing antibody response primarily targeting the HA stem region exists in recipients of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccine. The HA stem region contains various conserved neutralizing epitopes with the fusion peptide as an important one. This work may aid in the design of a universal influenza A virus vaccine.

  2. Fully human broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibodies against influenza A viruses generated from the memory B cells of a 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccine recipient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, Weibin; Chen, Aizhong; Miao, Yi; Xia, Shengli; Ling, Zhiyang; Xu, Ke; Wang, Tongyan; Xu, Ying; Cui, Jun; Wu, Hongqiang; Hu, Guiyu; Tian, Lin; Wang, Lingling; Shu, Yuelong; Ma, Xiaowei; Xu, Bianli; Zhang, Jin; Lin, Xiaojun; Bian, Chao; Sun, Bing

    2013-01-01

    Whether the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccine can induce heterosubtypic cross-protective anti-hemagglutinin (HA) neutralizing antibodies is an important issue. We obtained a panel of fully human monoclonal antibodies from the memory B cells of a 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccine recipient. Most of the monoclonal antibodies targeted the HA protein but not the HA1 fragment. Among the analyzed antibodies, seven mAbs exhibited neutralizing activity against several influenza A viruses of different subtypes. The conserved linear epitope targeted by the neutralizing mAbs (FIEGGWTGMVDGWYGYHH) is part of the fusion peptide on HA2. Our work suggests that a heterosubtypic neutralizing antibody response primarily targeting the HA stem region exists in recipients of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccine. The HA stem region contains various conserved neutralizing epitopes with the fusion peptide as an important one. This work may aid in the design of a universal influenza A virus vaccine.

  3. Evidence of reassortment of pandemic H1N1 influenza virus in swine in Argentina: are we facing the expansion of potential epicenters of influenza emergence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereda, Ariel; Rimondi, Agustina; Cappuccio, Javier; Sanguinetti, Ramon; Angel, Matthew; Ye, Jianqiang; Sutton, Troy; Dibárbora, Marina; Olivera, Valeria; Craig, Maria I.; Quiroga, Maria; Machuca, Mariana; Ferrero, Andrea; Perfumo, Carlos; Perez, Daniel R.

    2011-01-01

    Please cite this paper as: Pereda et al. (2011) Evidence of reassortment of pandemic H1N1 influenza virus in swine in Argentina: are we facing the expansion of potential epicenters of influenza emergence? Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 5(6), 409–412. In this report, we describe the occurrence of two novel swine influenza viruses (SIVs) in pigs in Argentina. These viruses are the result of two independent reassortment events between the H1N1 pandemic influenza virus (H1N1pdm) and human‐like SIVs, showing the constant evolution of influenza viruses at the human–swine interface and the potential health risk of H1N1pdm as it appears to be maintained in the swine population. It must be noted that because of the lack of information regarding the circulation of SIVs in South America, we cannot discard the possibility that ancestors of the H1N1pdm or other SIVs have been present in this part of the world. More importantly, these findings suggest an ever‐expanding geographic range of potential epicenters of influenza emergence with public health risks. PMID:21668680

  4. Protection from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza by an antibody from combinatorial survivor-based libraries.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arun K Kashyap

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Influenza viruses elude immune responses and antiviral chemotherapeutics through genetic drift and reassortment. As a result, the development of new strategies that attack a highly conserved viral function to prevent and/or treat influenza infection is being pursued. Such novel broadly acting antiviral therapies would be less susceptible to virus escape and provide a long lasting solution to the evolving virus challenge. Here we report the in vitro and in vivo activity of a human monoclonal antibody (A06 against two isolates of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza virus. This antibody, which was obtained from a combinatorial library derived from a survivor of highly pathogenic H5N1 infection, neutralizes H5N1, seasonal H1N1 and 2009 "Swine" H1N1 pandemic influenza in vitro with similar potency and is capable of preventing and treating 2009 H1N1 influenza infection in murine models of disease. These results demonstrate broad activity of the A06 antibody and its utility as an anti-influenza treatment option, even against newly evolved influenza strains to which there is limited immunity in the general population.

  5. Macroeconomic impact of a mild influenza pandemic and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda: a computable general equilibrium analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Richard D; Keogh-Brown, Marcus R

    2013-11-01

    Previous research has demonstrated the value of macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high-income countries and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower- and middle-income countries. To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009. A single-country whole-economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure. Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour-intensive sectors suffer the largest losses. The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low-income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Factors associated with 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1 vaccination acceptance among university students from India during the post-pandemic phase

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thejaswini Venkatesh

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There was a low adherence to influenza A (H1N1 vaccination program among university students and health care workers during the pandemic influenza in many parts of the world. Vaccination of high risk individuals is one of the recommendations of World Health Organization during the post-pandemic period. It is not documented about the student's knowledge, attitude and willingness to accept H1N1 vaccination during the post-pandemic period. We aimed to analyze the student's knowledge, attitude and willingness to accept H1N1 vaccination during the post-pandemic period in India. Methods Vaccine against H1N1 was made available to the students of Vellore Institute of Technology, India from September 2010. The data are based on a cross-sectional study conducted during October 2010 to January 2011 using a self-administered questionnaire with a representative sample of the student population (N = 802. Results Of the 802 respondents, only 102/802 (12.7% had been vaccinated and 105/802 (13% planned to do so in the future, while 595/802 (74% would probably or definitely not get vaccinated in the future. The highest coverage was among the female (65/102, 63.7% and non-compliance was higher among men in the group (384/595; 64.5% (p Conclusions Our study shows that the vaccination coverage among university students remains very low in the post-pandemic period and doubts about the safety and effectiveness of the vaccine are key elements in their rejection. Our results indicate a need to provide accessible information about the vaccine safety by scientific authorities and fill gaps and confusions in this regard.

  7. GLA-AF, an emulsion-free vaccine adjuvant for pandemic influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clegg, Christopher H; Roque, Richard; Perrone, Lucy A; Rininger, Joseph A; Bowen, Richard; Reed, Steven G

    2014-01-01

    The ongoing threat from Influenza necessitates the development of new vaccine and adjuvant technologies that can maximize vaccine immunogenicity, shorten production cycles, and increase global vaccine supply. Currently, the most successful adjuvants for Influenza vaccines are squalene-based oil-in-water emulsions. These adjuvants enhance seroprotective antibody titers to homologous and heterologous strains of virus, and augment a significant dose sparing activity that could improve vaccine manufacturing capacity. As an alternative to an emulsion, we tested a simple lipid-based aqueous formulation containing a synthetic TLR4 ligand (GLA-AF) for its ability to enhance protection against H5N1 infection. GLA-AF was very effective in adjuvanting recombinant H5 hemagglutinin antigen (rH5) in mice and was as potent as the stable emulsion, SE. Both adjuvants induced similar antibody titers using a sub-microgram dose of rH5, and both conferred complete protection against a highly pathogenic H5N1 challenge. However, GLA-AF was the superior adjuvant in ferrets. GLA-AF stimulated a broader antibody response than SE after both the prime and boost immunization with rH5, and ferrets were better protected against homologous and heterologous strains of H5N1 virus. Thus, GLA-AF is a potent emulsion-free adjuvant that warrants consideration for pandemic influenza vaccine development.

  8. Gauging U.S. Emergency Medical Services workers' willingness to respond to pandemic influenza using a threat- and efficacy-based assessment framework.

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    Daniel J Barnett

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Emergency Medical Services workers' willingness to report to duty in an influenza pandemic is essential to healthcare system surge amidst a global threat. Application of Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM has shown utility for revealing influences of perceived threat and efficacy on non-EMS public health providers' willingness to respond in an influenza pandemic. We thus propose using an EPPM-informed assessment of EMS workers' perspectives toward fulfilling their influenza pandemic response roles.We administered an EPPM-informed snapshot survey about attitudes and beliefs toward pandemic influenza response, to a nationally representative, stratified random sample of 1,537 U.S. EMS workers from May-June 2009 (overall response rate: 49%. Of the 586 respondents who met inclusion criteria (currently active EMS providers in primarily EMS response roles, 12% indicated they would not voluntarily report to duty in a pandemic influenza emergency if asked, 7% if required. A majority (52% indicated their unwillingness to report to work if risk of disease transmission to family existed. Confidence in personal safety at work (OR = 3.3 and a high threat/high efficacy ("concerned and confident" EPPM profile (OR = 4.7 distinguished those who were more likely to voluntarily report to duty. Although 96% of EMS workers indicated that they would probably or definitely report to work if they were guaranteed a pandemic influenza vaccine, only 59% had received an influenza immunization in the preceding 12 months.EMS workers' response willingness gaps pose a substantial challenge to prehospital surge capacity in an influenza pandemic. "Concerned and confident" EMS workers are more than four times as likely to fulfill pandemic influenza response expectations. Confidence in workplace safety is a positively influential modifier of their response willingness. These findings can inform insights into interventions for enhancing EMS workers' willingness to respond

  9. Pandemic influenza preparedness and health systems challenges in Asia: results from rapid analyses in 6 Asian countries

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    Putthasri Weerasak

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Since 2003, Asia-Pacific, particularly Southeast Asia, has received substantial attention because of the anticipation that it could be the epicentre of the next pandemic. There has been active investment but earlier review of pandemic preparedness plans in the region reveals that the translation of these strategic plans into operational plans is still lacking in some countries particularly those with low resources. The objective of this study is to understand the pandemic preparedness programmes, the health systems context, and challenges and constraints specific to the six Asian countries namely Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Taiwan, Thailand, and Viet Nam in the prepandemic phase before the start of H1N1/2009. Methods The study relied on the Systemic Rapid Assessment (SYSRA toolkit, which evaluates priority disease programmes by taking into account the programmes, the general health system, and the wider socio-cultural and political context. The components under review were: external context; stewardship and organisational arrangements; financing, resource generation and allocation; healthcare provision; and information systems. Qualitative and quantitative data were collected in the second half of 2008 based on a review of published data and interviews with key informants, exploring past and current patterns of health programme and pandemic response. Results The study shows that health systems in the six countries varied in regard to the epidemiological context, health care financing, and health service provision patterns. For pandemic preparation, all six countries have developed national governance on pandemic preparedness as well as national pandemic influenza preparedness plans and Avian and Human Influenza (AHI response plans. However, the governance arrangements and the nature of the plans differed. In the five developing countries, the focus was on surveillance and rapid containment of poultry related transmission

  10. Dynamic modelling of costs and health consequences of school closure during an influenza pandemic

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    Xue Yiting

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The purpose of this article is to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of school closure during a potential influenza pandemic and to examine the trade-off between costs and health benefits for school closure involving different target groups and different closure durations. Methods We developed two models: a dynamic disease model capturing the spread of influenza and an economic model capturing the costs and benefits of school closure. Decisions were based on quality-adjusted life years gained using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. The disease model is an age-structured SEIR compartmental model based on the population of Oslo. We studied the costs and benefits of school closure by varying the age targets (kindergarten, primary school, secondary school and closure durations (1–10 weeks, given pandemics with basic reproductive number of 1.5, 2.0 or 2.5. Results The cost-effectiveness of school closure varies depending on the target group, duration and whether indirect costs are considered. Using a case fatality rate (CFR of 0.1-0.2% and with current cost-effectiveness threshold for Norway, closing secondary school is the only cost-effective strategy, when indirect costs are included. The most cost-effective strategies would be closing secondary schools for 8 weeks if R0=1.5, 6 weeks if R0=2.0, and 4 weeks if R0= 2.5. For severe pandemics with case fatality rates of 1-2%, similar to the Spanish flu, or when indirect costs are disregarded, the optimal strategy is closing kindergarten, primary and secondary school for extended periods of time. For a pandemic with 2009 H1N1 characteristics (mild severity and low transmissibility, closing schools would not be cost-effective, regardless of the age target of school children. Conclusions School closure has moderate impact on the epidemic’s scope, but the resulting disruption to society imposes a potentially great cost in terms of lost productivity from parents’ work absenteeism.

  11. Design and validation of a questionnaire to measure the attitudes of hospital staff concerning pandemic influenza.

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    Naghavi, Seyed Hamid Reza; Shabestari, Omid; Roudsari, Abdul V; Harrison, John

    2012-03-01

    When pandemics lead to a higher workload in the healthcare sector, the attitude of healthcare staff and, more importantly, the ability to predict the rate of absence due to sickness are crucial factors in emergency preparedness and resource allocation. The aim of this study was to design and validate a questionnaire to measure the attitude of hospital staff toward work attendance during an influenza pandemic. An online questionnaire was designed and electronically distributed to the staff of a teaching medical institution in the United Kingdom. The questionnaire was designed de novo following discussions with colleagues at Imperial College and with reference to the literature on the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic. The questionnaire included 15 independent fact variables and 33 dependent measure variables. A total of 367 responses were received in this survey. The data from the measurement variables were not normally distributed. Three different methods (standardized residuals, Mahalanobis distance and Cook's distance) were used to identify the outliers. In all, 19 respondents (5.17%) were identified as outliers and were excluded. The responses to this questionnaire had a wide range of missing data, from 1 to 74 cases in the measured variables. To improve the quality of the data, missing value analysis, using Expectation Maximization Algorithm (EMA) with a non-normal distribution model, was applied to the responses. The collected data were checked for homoscedasticity and multicollinearity of the variables. These tests suggested that some of the questions should be merged. In the last step, the reliability of the questionnaire was evaluated. This process showed that three questions reduced the reliability of the questionnaire. Removing those questions helped to achieve the desired level of reliability. With the changes proposed in this article, the questionnaire for measuring staff attitudes concerning pandemic influenza can be converted to a

  12. The feasibility of age-specific travel restrictions during influenza pandemics.

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    Lam, Elson H Y; Cowling, Benjamin J; Cook, Alex R; Wong, Jessica Y T; Lau, Max S Y; Nishiura, Hiroshi

    2011-11-11

    Epidemiological studies have shown that imposing travel restrictions to prevent or delay an influenza pandemic may not be feasible. To delay an epidemic substantially, an extremely high proportion of trips (~99%) would have to be restricted in a homogeneously mixing population. Influenza is, however, strongly influenced by age-dependent transmission dynamics, and the effectiveness of age-specific travel restrictions, such as the selective restriction of travel by children, has yet to be examined. A simple stochastic model was developed to describe the importation of infectious cases into a population and to model local chains of transmission seeded by imported cases. The probability of a local epidemic, and the time period until a major epidemic takes off, were used as outcome measures, and travel restriction policies in which children or adults were preferentially restricted were compared to age-blind restriction policies using an age-dependent next generation matrix parameterized for influenza H1N1-2009. Restricting children from travelling would yield greater reductions to the short-term risk of the epidemic being established locally than other policy options considered, and potentially could delay an epidemic for a few weeks. However, given a scenario with a total of 500 imported cases over a period of a few months, a substantial reduction in the probability of an epidemic in this time period is possible only if the transmission potential were low and assortativity (i.e. the proportion of contacts within-group) were unrealistically high. In all other scenarios considered, age-structured travel restrictions would not prevent an epidemic and would not delay the epidemic for longer than a few weeks. Selectively restricting children from traveling overseas during a pandemic may potentially delay its arrival for a few weeks, depending on the characteristics of the pandemic strain, but could have less of an impact on the economy compared to restricting adult

  13. The feasibility of age-specific travel restrictions during influenza pandemics

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    Lam Elson HY

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Epidemiological studies have shown that imposing travel restrictions to prevent or delay an influenza pandemic may not be feasible. To delay an epidemic substantially, an extremely high proportion of trips (~99% would have to be restricted in a homogeneously mixing population. Influenza is, however, strongly influenced by age-dependent transmission dynamics, and the effectiveness of age-specific travel restrictions, such as the selective restriction of travel by children, has yet to be examined. Methods A simple stochastic model was developed to describe the importation of infectious cases into a population and to model local chains of transmission seeded by imported cases. The probability of a local epidemic, and the time period until a major epidemic takes off, were used as outcome measures, and travel restriction policies in which children or adults were preferentially restricted were compared to age-blind restriction policies using an age-dependent next generation matrix parameterized for influenza H1N1-2009. Results Restricting children from travelling would yield greater reductions to the short-term risk of the epidemic being established locally than other policy options considered, and potentially could delay an epidemic for a few weeks. However, given a scenario with a total of 500 imported cases over a period of a few months, a substantial reduction in the probability of an epidemic in this time period is possible only if the transmission potential were low and assortativity (i.e. the proportion of contacts within-group were unrealistically high. In all other scenarios considered, age-structured travel restrictions would not prevent an epidemic and would not delay the epidemic for longer than a few weeks. Conclusions Selectively restricting children from traveling overseas during a pandemic may potentially delay its arrival for a few weeks, depending on the characteristics of the pandemic strain, but could have less

  14. Impact of antiviral treatment and hospital admission delay on risk of death associated with 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic influenza in Mexico

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    Chowell Gerardo

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Increasing our understanding of the factors affecting the severity of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in different regions of the world could lead to improved clinical practice and mitigation strategies for future influenza pandemics. Even though a number of studies have shed light into the risk factors associated with severe outcomes of 2009 A/H1N1 influenza infections in different populations (e.g., [1-5], analyses of the determinants of mortality risk spanning multiple pandemic waves and geographic regions are scarce. Between-country differences in the mortality burden of the 2009 pandemic could be linked to differences in influenza case management, underlying population health, or intrinsic differences in disease transmission [6]. Additional studies elucidating the determinants of disease severity globally are warranted to guide prevention efforts in future influenza pandemics. In Mexico, the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic was characterized by a three-wave pattern occurring in the spring, summer, and fall of 2009 with substantial geographical heterogeneity [7]. A recent study suggests that Mexico experienced high excess mortality burden during the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic relative to other countries [6]. However, an assessment of potential factors that contributed to the relatively high pandemic death toll in Mexico are lacking. Here, we fill this gap by analyzing a large series of laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 influenza cases, hospitalizations, and deaths monitored by the Mexican Social Security medical system during April 1 through December 31, 2009 in Mexico. In particular, we quantify the association between disease severity, hospital admission delays, and neuraminidase inhibitor use by demographic characteristics, pandemic wave, and geographic regions of Mexico. Methods We analyzed a large series of laboratory-confirmed pandemic A/H1N1 influenza cases from a prospective surveillance system maintained by the

  15. Pandemic influenza and health system resource gaps in Bali: an analysis through a resource transmission dynamics model.

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    Adisasmito, Wiku; Hunter, Benjamin M; Krumkamp, Ralf; Latief, Kamal; Rudge, James W; Hanvoravongchai, Piya; Coker, Richard J

    2015-03-01

    The failure to contain pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 in Mexico has shifted global attention from containment to mitigation. Limited surveillance and reporting have, however, prevented detailed assessment of mitigation during the pandemic, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. To assess pandemic influenza case management capabilities in a resource-limited setting, the authors used a health system questionnaire and density-dependent, deterministic transmission model for Bali, Indonesia, determining resource gaps. The majority of health resources were focused in and around the provincial capital, Denpasar; however, gaps are found in every district for nursing staff, surgical masks, and N95 masks. A relatively low pathogenicity pandemic influenza virus would see an overall surplus for physicians, antivirals, and antimicrobials; however, a more pathogenic virus would lead to gaps in every resource except antimicrobials. Resources could be allocated more evenly across Bali. These, however, are in short supply universally and therefore redistribution would not fill resource gaps. © 2011 APJPH.

  16. Exploring national surveillance for health-related workplace absenteeism: lessons learned from the 2009 influenza A pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groenewold, Matthew R; Konicki, Doris L; Luckhaupt, Sara E; Gomaa, Ahmed; Koonin, Lisa M

    2013-04-01

    During the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus pandemic, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention did a pilot study to test the feasibility of using national surveillance of workplace absenteeism to assess the pandemic's impact on the workplace to plan for preparedness and continuity of operations and to contribute to health awareness during the emergency response. Population-based and sentinel worksite approaches were used. Monthly measures of the 1-week prevalence of health-related absenteeism among full-time workers were estimated using nationally representative data from the Current Population Survey. Enhanced passive surveillance of absenteeism was conducted using weekly data from a convenience sample of sentinel worksites. Nationally, the pandemic's impact on workplace absenteeism was small. Estimates of 1-week absenteeism prevalence did not exceed 3.7%. However, peak workplace absenteeism was correlated with the highest occurrence of both influenza-like illness and influenza-positive laboratory tests. Systems for monitoring workplace absenteeism should be included in pandemic preparedness planning.

  17. Contemporary Avian Influenza A Virus Subtype H1, H6, H7, H10, and H15 Hemagglutinin Genes Encode a Mammalian Virulence Factor Similar to the 1918 Pandemic Virus H1 Hemagglutinin

    OpenAIRE

    Qi, Li; Pujanauski, Lindsey M.; Davis, A. Sally; Schwartzman, Louis M.; Chertow, Daniel S.; Baxter, David; Scherler, Kelsey; Hartshorn, Kevan L.; Slemons, Richard D.; Walters, Kathie-Anne; Kash, John C.; Taubenberger, Jeffery K.

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT Zoonotic avian influenza virus infections may lead to epidemics or pandemics. The 1918 pandemic influenza virus has an avian influenza virus-like genome, and its H1 hemagglutinin was identified as a key mammalian virulence factor. A chimeric 1918 virus expressing a contemporary avian H1 hemagglutinin, however, displayed murine pathogenicity indistinguishable from that of the 1918 virus. Here, isogenic chimeric avian influenza viruses were constructed on an avian influenza virus backb...

  18. Impact of pandemic flu training on ability of medical personnel to recognize an index case of avian influenza.

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    Adini, Bruria; Goldberg, Avishay; Cohen, Robert; Bar-Dayan, Yaron

    2012-04-01

    This study investigated the relationship between training programmes for pandemic flu and level of knowledge of health-care professionals with performance in an avian flu exercise. Training programmes of all general hospitals in Israel for managing a pandemic influenza were evaluated. Spearman's ρ correlation was used to analyse the relationship between training scores and level of knowledge of medical personnel with performance in an avian flu exercise. Hospital preparedness levels were evaluated at two time points and Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to determine if overall preparedness scores improved over time. Evaluation of training programmes for pandemic influenza showed high to very high scores in most hospitals (mean 85, SD 22). Significant correlations between training and performance in the exercise were noted for: implementation of training programmes 0.91, P = 0.000; designating personnel for training 0.87, P = 0.000; content of training 0.61, P = 0.001; and training materials 0.36, P = 0.05. Overall reliability of the evaluation scores was 0.82 and reliability for two of the sub-scales was: implementation of the programme 0.78; and designating personnel for training 0.37. No significant correlation was found between level of knowledge and performance in the exercise. Training programmes for hospital personnel for pandemic flu have a significant role in improving performance in case of pandemic flu. The key component of the training programme appears to be the implementation of the programme. Use of knowledge tests should be further investigated, as they do not appear to correlate with the level of emergency preparedness for pandemic influenza.

  19. Natural T Cell-mediated Protection against Seasonal and Pandemic Influenza. Results of the Flu Watch Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayward, Andrew C; Wang, Lili; Goonetilleke, Nilu; Fragaszy, Ellen B; Bermingham, Alison; Copas, Andrew; Dukes, Oliver; Millett, Elizabeth R C; Nazareth, Irwin; Nguyen-Van-Tam, Jonathan S; Watson, John M; Zambon, Maria; Johnson, Anne M; McMichael, Andrew J

    2015-06-15

    A high proportion of influenza infections are asymptomatic. Animal and human challenge studies and observational studies suggest T cells protect against disease among those infected, but the impact of T-cell immunity at the population level is unknown. To investigate whether naturally preexisting T-cell responses targeting highly conserved internal influenza proteins could provide cross-protective immunity against pandemic and seasonal influenza. We quantified influenza A(H3N2) virus-specific T cells in a population cohort during seasonal and pandemic periods between 2006 and 2010. Follow-up included paired serology, symptom reporting, and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) investigation of symptomatic cases. A total of 1,414 unvaccinated individuals had baseline T-cell measurements (1,703 participant observation sets). T-cell responses to A(H3N2) virus nucleoprotein (NP) dominated and strongly cross-reacted with A(H1N1)pdm09 NP (P < 0.001) in participants lacking antibody to A(H1N1)pdm09. Comparison of paired preseason and post-season sera (1,431 sets) showed 205 (14%) had evidence of infection based on fourfold influenza antibody titer rises. The presence of NP-specific T cells before exposure to virus correlated with less symptomatic, PCR-positive influenza A (overall adjusted odds ratio, 0.27; 95% confidence interval, 0.11-0.68; P = 0.005, during pandemic [P = 0.047] and seasonal [P = 0.049] periods). Protection was independent of baseline antibodies. Influenza-specific T-cell responses were detected in 43%, indicating a substantial population impact. Naturally occurring cross-protective T-cell immunity protects against symptomatic PCR-confirmed disease in those with evidence of infection and helps to explain why many infections do not cause symptoms. Vaccines stimulating T cells may provide important cross-protective immunity.

  20. Student behavior during a school closure caused by pandemic influenza A/H1N1.

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    Miller, Joel C; Danon, Leon; O'Hagan, Justin J; Goldstein, Edward; Lajous, Martin; Lipsitch, Marc

    2010-05-05

    Many schools were temporarily closed in response to outbreaks of the recently emerged pandemic influenza A/H1N1 virus. The effectiveness of closing schools to reduce transmission depends largely on student/family behavior during the closure. We sought to improve our understanding of these behaviors. To characterize this behavior, we surveyed students in grades 9-12 and parents of students in grades 5-8 about student activities during a week long closure of a school during the first months after the disease emerged. We found significant interaction with the community and other students-though less interaction with other students than during school-with the level of interaction increasing with grade. Our results are useful for the future design of social distancing policies and to improving the ability of modeling studies to accurately predict their impact.

  1. Student behavior during a school closure caused by pandemic influenza A/H1N1.

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    Joel C Miller

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Many schools were temporarily closed in response to outbreaks of the recently emerged pandemic influenza A/H1N1 virus. The effectiveness of closing schools to reduce transmission depends largely on student/family behavior during the closure. We sought to improve our understanding of these behaviors. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To characterize this behavior, we surveyed students in grades 9-12 and parents of students in grades 5-8 about student activities during a week long closure of a school during the first months after the disease emerged. We found significant interaction with the community and other students-though less interaction with other students than during school-with the level of interaction increasing with grade. CONCLUSIONS: Our results are useful for the future design of social distancing policies and to improving the ability of modeling studies to accurately predict their impact.

  2. Modeling the worldwide spread of pandemic influenza: baseline case and containment interventions.

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    Vittoria Colizza

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus, which is now widespread in Southeast Asia and which diffused recently in some areas of the Balkans region and Western Europe, has raised a public alert toward the potential occurrence of a new severe influenza pandemic. Here we study the worldwide spread of a pandemic and its possible containment at a global level taking into account all available information on air travel. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We studied a metapopulation stochastic epidemic model on a global scale that considers airline travel flow data among urban areas. We provided a temporal and spatial evolution of the pandemic with a sensitivity analysis of different levels of infectiousness of the virus and initial outbreak conditions (both geographical and seasonal. For each spreading scenario we provided the timeline and the geographical impact of the pandemic in 3,100 urban areas, located in 220 different countries. We compared the baseline cases with different containment strategies, including travel restrictions and the therapeutic use of antiviral (AV drugs. We investigated the effect of the use of AV drugs in the event that therapeutic protocols can be carried out with maximal coverage for the populations in all countries. In view of the wide diversity of AV stockpiles in different regions of the world, we also studied scenarios in which only a limited number of countries are prepared (i.e., have considerable AV supplies. In particular, we compared different plans in which, on the one hand, only prepared and wealthy countries benefit from large AV resources, with, on the other hand, cooperative containment scenarios in which countries with large AV stockpiles make a small portion of their supplies available worldwide. CONCLUSIONS: We show that the inclusion of air transportation is crucial in the assessment of the occurrence probability of global outbreaks. The large-scale therapeutic usage of AV drugs in all hit

  3. Vaccines for pandemic influenza. The history of our current vaccines, their limitations and the requirements to deal with a pandemic threat.

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    Hampson, Alan W

    2008-06-01

    Fears of a potential pandemic due to A(H5N1) viruses have focussed new attention on our current vaccines, their shortcomings, and concerns regarding global vaccine supply in a pandemic. The bulk of current vaccines are inactivated split virus vaccines produced from egg-grown virus and have only modest improvements compared with those first introduced over 60 years ago. Splitting, which was introduced some years ago to reduce reactogenicity, also reduces the immunogenicity of vaccines in immunologically naïve recipients. The A(H5N1) viruses have been found poorly immunogenic and present other challenges for vaccine producers which further exacerbate an already limited global production capacity. There have been some recent improvements in vaccine production methods and improvements to immunogenicity by the development of new adjuvants, however, these still fall short of providing timely supplies of vaccine for all in the face of a pandemic. New approaches to influenza vaccines which might fulfil the demands of a pandemic situation are under evaluation, however, these remain some distance from clinical reality and face significant regulatory hurdles.

  4. Possible explanations for why some countries were harder hit by the pandemic influenza virus in 2009 - a global mortality impact modeling study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morales, K.F.; Paget, J.; Spreeuwenberg, P.

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: A global pandemic mortality study found prominent regional mortality variations in 2009 for Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. Our study attempts to identify factors that explain why the pandemic mortality burden was high in some countries and low in others. METHODS: As a starting point, we

  5. Interdisciplinary pharmacometrics linking oseltamivir pharmacology, influenza epidemiology and health economics to inform antiviral use in pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamal, Mohamed A; Smith, Patrick F; Chaiyakunapruk, Nathorn; Wu, David B C; Pratoomsoot, Chayanin; Lee, Kenneth K C; Chong, Huey Yi; Nelson, Richard E; Nieforth, Keith; Dall, Georgina; Toovey, Stephen; Kong, David C M; Kamauu, Aaron; Kirkpatrick, Carl M; Rayner, Craig R

    2017-07-01

    A modular interdisciplinary platform was developed to investigate the economic impact of oseltamivir treatment by dosage regimen under simulated influenza pandemic scenarios. The pharmacology module consisted of a pharmacokinetic distribution of oseltamivir carboxylate daily area under the concentration-time curve at steady state (simulated for 75 mg and 150 mg twice daily regimens for 5 days) and a pharmacodynamic distribution of viral shedding duration obtained from phase II influenza inoculation data. The epidemiological module comprised a susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered (SEIR) model to which drug effect on the basic reproductive number (R 0 ), a measure of transmissibility, was linked by reduction of viral shedding duration. The number of infected patients per population of 100 000 susceptible individuals was simulated for a series of pandemic scenarios, varying oseltamivir dose, R 0 (1.9 vs. 2.7), and drug uptake (25%, 50%, and 80%). The number of infected patients for each scenario was entered into the health economics module, a decision analytic model populated with branch probabilities, disease utility, costs of hospitalized patients developing complications, and case-fatality rates. Change in quality-adjusted life years was determined relative to base case. Oseltamivir 75 mg relative to no treatment reduced the median number of infected patients, increased change in quality-adjusted life years by deaths averted, and was cost-saving under all scenarios; 150 mg relative to 75 mg was not cost effective in low transmissibility scenarios but was cost saving in high transmissibility scenarios. This methodological study demonstrates proof of concept that the disciplines of pharmacology, disease epidemiology and health economics can be linked in a single quantitative framework. © 2017 The British Pharmacological Society.

  6. Technology transfer of oil-in-water emulsion adjuvant manufacturing for pandemic influenza vaccine production in Romania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Christopher B; Huynh, Chuong; O'Hara, Michael K; Onu, Adrian

    2013-03-15

    Many developing countries lack or have inadequate pandemic influenza vaccine manufacturing capacity. In the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, this led to delayed and inadequate vaccine coverage in the developing world. Thus, bolstering developing country influenza vaccine manufacturing capacity is urgently needed. The Cantacuzino Institute in Bucharest, Romania has been producing seasonal influenza vaccine since the 1970s, and has the capacity to produce ∼5 million doses of monovalent vaccine in the event of an influenza pandemic. Inclusion of an adjuvant in the vaccine could enable antigen dose sparing, expanding vaccine coverage and potentially allowing universal vaccination of the Romanian population and possibly neighboring countries. However, adjuvant formulation and manufacturing know-how are difficult to access. This manuscript describes the successful transfer of oil-in-water emulsion adjuvant manufacturing and quality control technologies from the Infectious Disease Research Institute in Seattle, USA to the Cantacuzino Institute. By describing the challenges and accomplishments of the project, it is hoped that the knowledge and experience gained will benefit other institutes involved in similar technology transfer projects designed to facilitate increased vaccine manufacturing capacity in developing countries. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Lethal influenza virus infection in macaques is associated with early dysregulation of inflammatory related genes.

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    Cristian Cillóniz

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available The enormous toll on human life during the 1918-1919 Spanish influenza pandemic is a constant reminder of the potential lethality of influenza viruses. With the declaration by the World Health Organization of a new H1N1 influenza virus pandemic, and with continued human cases of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus infection, a better understanding of the host response to highly pathogenic influenza viruses is essential. To this end, we compared pathology and global gene expression profiles in bronchial tissue from macaques infected with either the reconstructed 1918 pandemic virus or the highly pathogenic avian H5N1 virus A/Vietnam/1203/04. Severe pathology was observed in respiratory tissues from 1918 virus-infected animals as early as 12 hours after infection, and pathology steadily increased at later time points. Although tissues from animals infected with A/Vietnam/1203/04 also showed clear signs of pathology early on, less pathology was observed at later time points, and there was evidence of tissue repair. Global transcriptional profiles revealed that specific groups of genes associated with inflammation and cell death were up-regulated in bronchial tissues from animals infected with the 1918 virus but down-regulated in animals infected with A/Vietnam/1203/04. Importantly, the 1918 virus up-regulated key components of the inflammasome, NLRP3 and IL-1beta, whereas these genes were down-regulated by A/Vietnam/1203/04 early after infection. TUNEL assays revealed that both viruses elicited an apoptotic response in lungs and bronchi, although the response occurred earlier during 1918 virus infection. Our findings suggest that the severity of disease in 1918 virus-infected macaques is a consequence of the early up-regulation of cell death and inflammatory related genes, in which additive or synergistic effects likely dictate the severity of tissue damage.

  8. Strategies for antiviral stockpiling for future influenza pandemics: a global epidemic-economic perspective.

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    Carrasco, Luis R; Lee, Vernon J; Chen, Mark I; Matchar, David B; Thompson, James P; Cook, Alex R

    2011-09-07

    Influenza pandemics present a global threat owing to their potential mortality and substantial economic impacts. Stockpiling antiviral drugs to manage a pandemic is an effective strategy to offset their negative impacts; however, little is known about the long-term optimal size of the stockpile under uncertainty and the characteristics of different countries. Using an epidemic-economic model we studied the effect on total mortality and costs of antiviral stockpile sizes for Brazil, China, Guatemala, India, Indonesia, New Zealand, Singapore, the UK, the USA and Zimbabwe. In the model, antivirals stockpiling considerably reduced mortality. There was greater potential avoidance of expected costs in the higher resourced countries (e.g. from $55 billion to $27 billion over a 30 year time horizon for the USA) and large avoidance of fatalities in those less resourced (e.g. from 11.4 to 2.3 million in Indonesia). Under perfect allocation, higher resourced countries should aim to store antiviral stockpiles able to cover at least 15 per cent of their population, rising to 25 per cent with 30 per cent misallocation, to minimize fatalities and economic costs. Stockpiling is estimated not to be cost-effective for two-thirds of the world's population under current antivirals pricing. Lower prices and international cooperation are necessary to make the life-saving potential of antivirals cost-effective in resource-limited countries.

  9. Cost-utility analysis of antiviral use under pandemic influenza using a novel approach - linking pharmacology, epidemiology and heath economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, D B C; Chaiyakunapruk, N; Pratoomsoot, C; Lee, K K C; Chong, H Y; Nelson, R E; Smith, P F; Kirkpatrick, C M; Kamal, M A; Nieforth, K; Dall, G; Toovey, S; Kong, D C M; Kamauu, A; Rayner, C R

    2018-03-01

    Simulation models are used widely in pharmacology, epidemiology and health economics (HEs). However, there have been no attempts to incorporate models from these disciplines into a single integrated model. Accordingly, we explored this linkage to evaluate the epidemiological and economic impact of oseltamivir dose optimisation in supporting pandemic influenza planning in the USA. An HE decision analytic model was linked to a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamics (PK/PD) - dynamic transmission model simulating the impact of pandemic influenza with low virulence and low transmissibility and, high virulence and high transmissibility. The cost-utility analysis was from the payer and societal perspectives, comparing oseltamivir 75 and 150 mg twice daily (BID) to no treatment over a 1-year time horizon. Model parameters were derived from published studies. Outcomes were measured as cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the integrated model's robustness. Under both pandemic scenarios, compared to no treatment, the use of oseltamivir 75 or 150 mg BID led to a significant reduction of influenza episodes and influenza-related deaths, translating to substantial savings of QALYs. Overall drug costs were offset by the reduction of both direct and indirect costs, making these two interventions cost-saving from both perspectives. The results were sensitive to the proportion of inpatient presentation at the emergency visit and patients' quality of life. Integrating PK/PD-EPI/HE models is achievable. Whilst further refinement of this novel linkage model to more closely mimic the reality is needed, the current study has generated useful insights to support influenza pandemic planning.

  10. Antibody Persistence in Adults Two Years after Vaccination with an H1N1 2009 Pandemic Influenza Virus-Like Particle Vaccine.

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    Nuriban Valero-Pacheco

    Full Text Available The influenza virus is a human pathogen that causes epidemics every year, as well as potential pandemic outbreaks, as occurred in 2009. Vaccination has proven to be sufficient in the prevention and containment of viral spreading. In addition to the current egg-based vaccines, new and promising vaccine platforms, such as cell culture-derived vaccines that include virus-like particles (VLPs, have been developed. VLPs have been shown to be both safe and immunogenic against influenza infections. Although antibody persistence has been studied in traditional egg-based influenza vaccines, studies on antibody response durations induced by VLP influenza vaccines in humans are scarce. Here, we show that subjects vaccinated with an insect cell-derived VLP vaccine, in the midst of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic outbreak in Mexico City, showed antibody persistence up to 24 months post-vaccination. Additionally, we found that subjects that reported being revaccinated with a subsequent inactivated influenza virus vaccine showed higher antibody titres to the pandemic influenza virus than those who were not revaccinated. These findings provide insights into the duration of the antibody responses elicited by an insect cell-derived pandemic influenza VLP vaccine and the possible effects of subsequent influenza vaccination on antibody persistence induced by this VLP vaccine in humans.

  11. The new school absentees reporting system for pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 infection in Japan.

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    Takeshi Suzue

    Full Text Available To evaluate the new Japanese School Absentees Reporting System for Infectious Disease (SARSID for pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 infection in comparison with the National epidemiological Surveillance of Infectious Disease (NESID.We used data of 53,223 students (97.7% in Takamatsu city Japan. Data regarding school absentees in SARSID was compared with that in NESID from Oct 13, 2009 to Jan 12, 2010.Similar trends were observed both in SARSID and NESID. However, the epidemic trend for influenza in SARSID was thought to be more sensitive than that in NESID.The epidemic trend for influenza among school-aged children could be easily and rapidly assessed by SARSID compared to NESID. SARSID might be useful for detecting the epidemic trend of influenza.

  12. Serums and vaccines to fight the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in Spain

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    Porras Gallo, María Isabel

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Against the background of the renewed interest aroused in recent years by the influenza pandemic of 1918-1919, and the leading role now played by research analysing the process of innovation in medicine, this paper assesses the role played by serums and vaccines —the new resources of the medical science of the time— in the fight against the influenza outbreak of 1918-1919. The paper highlights the dependence on combined scientific, social, economic and professional factors, and also shows the main consequences arising from the fine-tuning and implementation of these therapeutic and prophylactic resources.

    En el marco de la renovada actualidad alcanzada por la pandemia de gripe de 1918-1919 en los últimos años y del protagonismo logrado por los estudios que analizan el proceso de innovación en Medicina, el presente trabajo analiza el papel representado por sueros y vacunas —los nuevos recursos de la ciencia médica del momento— en la lucha contra la gripe de 1918-1919. El estudio pone de relieve su dependencia de los factores científicos, sociales, económicos y profesionales que concurrieron, y muestra también las principales consecuencias derivadas de la puesta a punto y uso de los citados recursos terapéuticos y profilácticos.

  13. Microdroplet sandwich real-time rt-PCR for detection of pandemic and seasonal influenza subtypes.

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    Stephanie L Angione

    Full Text Available As demonstrated by the recent 2012/2013 flu epidemic, the continual emergence of new viral strains highlights the need for accurate medical diagnostics in multiple community settings. If rapid, robust, and sensitive diagnostics for influenza subtyping were available, it would help identify epidemics, facilitate appropriate antiviral usage, decrease inappropriate antibiotic usage, and eliminate the extra cost of unnecessary laboratory testing and treatment. Here, we describe a droplet sandwich platform that can detect influenza subtypes using real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (rtRT-PCR. Using clinical samples collected during the 2010/11 season, we effectively differentiate between H1N1p (swine pandemic, H1N1s (seasonal, and H3N2 with an overall assay sensitivity was 96%, with 100% specificity for each subtype. Additionally, we demonstrate the ability to detect viral loads as low as 10(4 copies/mL, which is two orders of magnitude lower than viral loads in typical infected patients. This platform performs diagnostics in a miniaturized format without sacrificing any sensitivity, and can thus be easily developed into devices which are ideal for small clinics and pharmacies.

  14. Application of recombinant hemagglutinin proteins as alternative antigen standards for pandemic influenza vaccines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Yejin; Kwon, Seong Yi; Oh, Ho Jung; Shim, Sunbo; Chang, Seokkee; Chung, Hye Joo; Kim, Do Keun; Park, Younsang; Lee, Younghee

    2017-09-01

    The single radial immunodiffusion (SRID) assay, used to quantify hemagglutinin (HA) in influenza vaccines, requires reference reagents; however, because centralized production of reference reagents may slow the emergency deployment of vaccines, alternatives are needed. We investigated the production of HA proteins using recombinant DNA technology, rather than a traditional egg-based production process. The HA proteins were then used in an SRID assay as a reference antigen. We found that HA can be quantified in both egg-based and cell-based influenza vaccines when recombinant HAs (rHAs) are used as the reference antigen. Furthermore, we confirmed that rHAs obtained from strains with pandemic potential, such as H5N1, H7N3, H7N9, and H9N2 strains, can be utilized in the SRID assay. The rHA production process takes just one month, in contrast to the traditional process that takes three to four months. The use of rHAs may reduce the time required to produce reference reagents and facilitate timely introduction of vaccines during emergencies.

  15. A simple Pichia pastoris fermentation and downstream processing strategy for making recombinant pandemic Swine Origin Influenza a virus Hemagglutinin protein.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Athmaram, T N; Singh, Anil Kumar; Saraswat, Shweta; Srivastava, Saurabh; Misra, Princi; Kameswara Rao, M; Gopalan, N; Rao, P V L

    2013-02-01

    The present Influenza vaccine manufacturing process has posed a clear impediment to initiation of rapid mass vaccination against spreading pandemic influenza. New vaccine strategies are therefore needed that can accelerate the vaccine production. Pichia offers several advantages for rapid and economical bulk production of recombinant proteins and, hence, can be attractive alternative for producing an effective influenza HA based subunit vaccine. The recombinant Pichia harboring the transgene was subjected to fed-batch fermentation at 10 L scale. A simple fermentation and downstream processing strategy is developed for high-yield secretory expression of the recombinant Hemagglutinin protein of pandemic Swine Origin Influenza A virus using Pichia pastoris via fed-batch fermentation. Expression and purification were optimized and the expressed recombinant Hemagglutinin protein was verified by sodium dodecyl sulfate polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis, Western blot and MALDI-TOF analysis. In this paper, we describe a fed-batch fermentation protocol for the secreted production of Swine Influenza A Hemagglutinin protein in the P. pastoris GS115 strain. We have shown that there is a clear relationship between product yield and specific growth rate. The fed-batch fermentation and downstream processing methods optimized in the present study have immense practical application for high-level production of the recombinant H1N1 HA protein in a cost effective way using P. pastoris.

  16. Epidemiological survey on pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus infection in Kurdistan province, Islamic Republic of Iran, 2009.

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    Afrasiabian, S; Mohsenpour, B; Bagheri, K H; Barari, M; Ghaderi, E; Hashemi, R; Garibi, F

    2014-04-03

    This study evaluated the epidemiology of suspected cases of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus infection in 2009-2010 in Kurdistan province, a frontier province of the Islamic Republic of Iran. A questionnaire covering demographic characteristics, clinical presentation and outcome, and history of exposure and travel was completed by patients attending health centres and hospitals in the province. Nasal and throat swabs were analysed by RT-PCR. A total of 1059 suspected cases were assessed; H1N1 influenza A was confirmed in 157 (14.8%). The highest proportion of confirmed cases was 30.0%, among children aged Kurdistan.

  17. Pandemic H1N1 2009 virus in Norwegian pigs naïve to influenza A viruses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Germundsson, A.; Gjerset, B.; Hjulsager, Charlotte Kristiane

    In March-April 2009, a novel pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus (pH1N1-09v) emerged in the human population. The first case of pH1N1v infection in pigs was reported from Canada in May 2009. In Norway, pH1N1v infection was recorded in a swine herd on the 10th of October of 2009. Here, we report...... isolated from a confirmed human case at the farm. The majority of the positive herds had a history of contact with humans that were diagnosed with pandemic influenza or with ILI. This suggests that infected humans are the most likely source for introduction of pH1N1-09v to the Norwegian pig herds...

  18. "With human health it's a global thing": Canadian perspectives on ethics in the global governance of an influenza pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Alison K; Smith, Maxwell J; McDougall, Christopher W; Bensimon, Cécile; Perez, Daniel Felipe

    2015-03-01

    We live in an era where our health is linked to that of others across the globe, and nothing brings this home better than the specter of a pandemic. This paper explores the findings of town hall meetings associated with the Canadian Program of Research on Ethics in a Pandemic (CanPREP), in which focus groups met to discuss issues related to the global governance of an influenza pandemic. Two competing discourses were found to be at work: the first was based upon an economic rationality and the second upon a humanitarian rationality. The implications for public support and the long-term sustainability of new global norms, networks, and regulations in global public health are discussed.

  19. A highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 with 2009 pandemic H1N1 internal genes demonstrated increased replication and transmission in pigs

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study investigated the pathogenicity and transmissibility of a reverse-genetics derived highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 influenza A virus (IAV), A/Iraq/775/06, and a reassortant virus comprised of the HA and NA from A/Iraq/775/06 and the internal genes of a 2009 pandemic H1N1, A/N...

  20. Severe influenza cases in paediatric intensive care units in Germany during the pre-pandemic seasons 2005 to 2008

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    Liese Johannes G

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Data on complications in children with seasonal influenza virus infection are limited. We initiated a nation-wide three-year surveillance of children who were admitted to a paediatric intensive care unit (PICU with severe seasonal influenza. Methods From October 2005 to July 2008, active surveillance was performed using an established reporting system for rare diseases (ESPED including all paediatric hospitals in Germany. Cases to be reported were hospitalized children Results Twenty severe influenza-associated cases were reported from 14 PICUs during three pre-pandemic influenza seasons (2005-2008. The median age of the patients (12 males/8 females was 7.5 years (range 0.1-15 years. None had received vaccination against influenza. In 14 (70% patients, the infection had been caused by influenza A and in five (25% by influenza B; in one child (5% the influenza type was not reported. Patients spent a median of 19 (IQR 12-38 days in the hospital and a median of 11 days (IQR 6-18 days in the PICU; 10 (50% needed mechanical ventilation. Most frequent diagnoses were influenza-associated pneumonia (60%, bronchitis/bronchiolitis (30%, encephalitis/encephalopathy (25%, secondary bacterial pneumonia (25%, and ARDS (25%. Eleven (55% children had chronic underlying medical conditions, including 8 (40% with chronic pulmonary diseases. Two influenza A- associated deaths were reported: i an 8-year old boy with pneumococcal encephalopathy following influenza infection died from cerebral edema, ii a 14-year-old boy with asthma bronchiale, cardiac malformation and Addison's disease died from cardiac and respiratory failure. For nine (45% patients, possibly permanent sequelae were reported (3 neurological, 3 pulmonary, 3 other sequelae. Conclusions Influenza-associated pneumonia and secondary bacterial infections are relevant complications of seasonal influenza in Germany. The incidence of severe influenza cases in PICUs was relatively low

  1. A new sentinel surveillance system for severe influenza in England shows a shift in age distribution of hospitalised cases in the post-pandemic period.

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    Shelly Bolotin

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control have highlighted the importance of establishing systems to monitor severe influenza. Following the H1N1 (2009 influenza pandemic, a sentinel network of 23 Trusts, the UK Severe Influenza Surveillance System (USISS, was established to monitor hospitalisations due to confirmed seasonal influenza in England. This article presents the results of the first season of operation of USISS in 2010/11. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A case was defined as a person hospitalised with confirmed influenza of any type. Weekly aggregate numbers of hospitalised influenza cases, broken down by flu type and level of care, were submitted by participating Trusts. Cases in 2010/11 were compared to cases during the 2009 pandemic in hospitals with available surveillance data for both time periods (n = 19. An unexpected resurgence in seasonal A/H1N1 (2009 influenza activity in England was observed in December 2010 with reports of severe disease. Reported cases over the period of 4 October 2010 to 13 February 2011 were mostly due to influenza A/H1N1 (2009. One thousand and seventy-one cases of influenza A/H1N1 (2009 occurred over this period compared to 409 at the same Trusts over the 2009/10 pandemic period (1 April 2009 to 6 January 2010. Median age of influenza A/H1N1 (2009 cases in 2010/11 was 35 years, compared with 20 years during the pandemic (p = <0.0001. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The Health Protection Agency successfully established a sentinel surveillance system for severe influenza in 2010/11, detecting a rise in influenza cases mirroring other surveillance indicators. The data indicate an upward shift in the age-distribution of influenza A/H1N1 (2009 during the 2010/11 influenza season as compared to the 2009/10 pandemic. Systems to enable the ongoing surveillance of severe influenza will be a key component in understanding and responding to the evolving

  2. Compliance with recommendations for pandemic influenza H1N1 2009: the role of trust and personal beliefs.

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    Prati, Gabriele; Pietrantoni, Luca; Zani, Bruna

    2011-10-01

    To investigate the relationship between risk perception, worry, control, trust, exposure to an educational campaign, media exaggeration with recommendations for pandemic influenza H1N1 2009. Cross sectional telephone survey using random digit dialing. A total of 1010 adult Italians were interviewed by telephone between 16 and 19 February 2010. The survey instrument included demographic data, measures on risk perception, worry, trust and compliance with recommendations for pandemic influenza H1N1 2009. Controlling for socio-demographic variables, compliance with all the recommended behaviors was associated with media trust, trust in the Ministry of Health, worry and perceived severity of illness. Perceptions that the risk of catching pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 is high, that the authorities are acting in the public's best interest in dealing with it, that the media had exaggerated the risks of catching it and that people can control their risk of catching it were associated with compliance with some recommended behaviors even after considering effects of socio-demographic characteristics. The results underscore the importance of building public trust and to consider the influence of risk perception and affective response in promoting compliance with recommended behaviors.

  3. [Pandemic influenza A (H1N1 virus) on Futuna Island in the Pacific, from August to September 2009].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chenaitia, Hichem; Massa, Horace; Garry, Philippe; Puget, André; Yvon, Jean-Francois; Dutaut, Elisabeth; Bessereau, Jacques; Michelet, Pierre; Auffray, Jean-Pierre; Delmont, Jean

    2011-03-01

    The aim of this study is to report the observation of the pandemic of influenza A (H1N1 virus) from August to September 2009 on the island of Futuna, in a context of isolated island that may mimic an environment closed. We conducted a prospective observational study of influenza-like illness, from the first confirmed case of influenza A on the island until the end of the epidemic wave. From August 15 to September 20, 2009, 1536 cases of influenza syndrome were identified. The estimate of the overall clinical attack rate was 36 %. The evolution of the epidemic shows an explosion of new cases of influenza A and subsequently a rapid decline of the epidemic. The spread of the infection was made by contiguity, jumping from one city to another. The cumulative number of cases by age group shows that the majority of cases were children and young adults under the age of 20 years. The most frequent symptoms were cough, rhinorrhea, headache, myalgia or asthenia, and fever. This study, despite these limitations, shows an explosive epidemic of influenza A, which can be explained by the circulation of virus that has been fostered by gatherings of public and closed environment. Age group classification shows that majority of cases were young, in contrast to seasonal influenza, but the symptoms were alike. This study highlights the difficulties to manage an epidemic surveillance system at high level and given the quick spread of the disease. Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

  4. The influence of climatic conditions on the transmission dynamics of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowell, Gerardo; Towers, Sherry; Viboud, Cécile; Fuentes, Rodrigo; Sotomayor, Viviana; Simonsen, Lone; Miller, Mark A; Lima, Mauricio; Villarroel, Claudia; Chiu, Monica; Villarroel, Jose E; Olea, Andrea

    2012-11-13

    The role of demographic factors, climatic conditions, school cycles, and connectivity patterns in shaping the spatio-temporal dynamics of pandemic influenza is not clearly understood. Here we analyzed the spatial, age and temporal evolution of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Chile, a southern hemisphere country covering a long and narrow strip comprising latitudes 17°S to 56°S. We analyzed the dissemination patterns of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic across 15 regions of Chile based on daily hospitalizations for severe acute respiratory disease and laboratory confirmed A/H1N1 influenza infection from 01-May to 31-December, 2009. We explored the association between timing of pandemic onset and peak pandemic activity and several geographical and demographic indicators, school vacations, climatic factors, and international passengers. We also estimated the reproduction number (R) based on the growth rate of the exponential pandemic phase by date of symptoms onset, estimated using maximum likelihood methods. While earlier pandemic onset was associated with larger population size, there was no association with connectivity, demographic, school or climatic factors. In contrast, there was a latitudinal gradient in peak pandemic timing, representing a 16-39-day lag in disease activity from the southern regions relative to the northernmost region (P humidity explained 68.5% of the variability in peak timing (P = 0.01). In addition, there was a decreasing gradient in reproduction number from south to north Chile (P humidity. The latitudinal gradient in timing of pandemic activity was accompanied by a gradient in reproduction number (P < 0.0001). Intensified surveillance strategies in colder and drier southern regions could lead to earlier detection of pandemic influenza viruses and improved control outcomes.

  5. Detection of extensive cross-neutralization between pandemic and seasonal A/H1N1 Influenza Viruses using a pseudotype neutralization assay.

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    Béatrice Labrosse

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Cross-immunity between seasonal and pandemic A/H1N1 influenza viruses remains uncertain. In particular, the extent that previous infection or vaccination by seasonal A/H1N1 viruses can elicit protective immunity against pandemic A/H1N1 is unclear. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Neutralizing titers against seasonal A/H1N1 (A/Brisbane/59/2007 and against pandemic A/H1N1 (A/California/04/2009 were measured using an HIV-1-based pseudovirus neutralization assay. Using this highly sensitive assay, we found that a large fraction of subjects who had never been exposed to pandemic A/H1N1 express high levels of pandemic A/H1N1 neutralizing titers. A significant correlation was seen between neutralization of pandemic A/H1N1 and neutralization of a standard seasonal A/H1N1 strain. Significantly higher pandemic A/H1N1 neutralizing titers were measured in subjects who had received vaccination against seasonal influenza in 2008-2009. Higher pandemic neutralizing titers were also measured in subjects over 60 years of age. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings reveal that the extent of protective cross-immunity between seasonal and pandemic A/H1N1 influenza viruses may be more important than previously estimated. This cross-immunity could provide a possible explanation of the relatively mild profile of the recent influenza pandemic.

  6. [Knowledge, practices and attitudes toward volunteer work in an influenza pandemic: cross-sectional study with Peruvian medical students].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huapaya, Julio A; Maquera-Afaray, Julio; García, Patricia J; Cárcamo, César; Cieza, Javier A

    2015-05-08

    Reductions in health personnel during disasters or epidemics such as an influenza pandemic may need to include volunteer students. The aim of this article is to determine knowledge and practices about pandemic influenza and the attitudes towards volunteer work in Peruvian medical students. We performed a cross-sectional analytic study by simple sampling using a survey regarding “"knowledge and practices"” about pandemic influenza and the attitudes to volunteer work. From the group of 865 students who were surveyed, 848 accepted to participate in the investigation (54% were male and their mean age was 22.1 ± 3.0). Ninety-seven percent correctly identified the spread routes of influenza and 81% knew its treatment. Regarding preventive measures, covering the mouth when coughing/sneezing and hand-washing were the most commonly recognized options (95% y 92%, respectively), and vaccination was the less recognized one (54%). The most common practice, readily acknowledged as preventive, was covering when coughing/sneezing (86%). Regarding volunteer works, students answered that it is a moral/ethical/professional obligation (77%); that a contingency university service needs to be established (88%), that it does not have to substitute for the lack of workers (49%), and that its role should be related to hospital work (83%). Coming from a public university was more associated to the concept that volunteer work was a moral obligation and that the student should be punished if he/she refuses to be a volunteer, whereas being from a private university was more related to a history of been involved in volunteering programs. In general, medical students have good knowledge and practices toward influenza. There is a good disposition to volunteer their work and skills, recognizing it as a moral/ethical/professional obligation.

  7. An analysis of 332 fatalities infected with pandemic 2009 influenza A (H1N1 in Argentina.

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    Ana M Balanzat

    Full Text Available The apparent high number of deaths in Argentina during the 2009 pandemic led to concern that the influenza A H1N1pdm disease was different there. We report the characteristics and risk factors for influenza A H1N1pdm fatalities.We identified laboratory-confirmed influenza A H1N1pdm fatalities occurring during June-July 2009. Physicians abstracted data on age, sex, time of onset of illness, medical history, clinical presentation at admission, laboratory, treatment, and outcomes using standardize questionnaires. We explored the characteristics of fatalities according to their age and risk group.Of 332 influenza A H1N1pdm fatalities, 226 (68% were among persons aged <50 years. Acute respiratory failure was the leading cause of death. Of all cases, 249 (75% had at least one comorbidity as defined by Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices. Obesity was reported in 32% with data and chronic pulmonary disease in 28%. Among the 40 deaths in children aged <5 years, chronic pulmonary disease (42% and neonatal pathologies (35% were the most common co-morbidities. Twenty (6% fatalities were among pregnant or postpartum women of which only 47% had diagnosed co-morbidities. Only 13% of patients received antiviral treatment within 48 hours of symptom onset. None of children aged <5 years or the pregnant women received antivirals within 48 h of symptom onset. As the pandemic progressed, the time from symptom-onset to medical care and to antiviral treatment decreased significantly among case-patients who subsequently died (p<0.001.Persons with co-morbidities, pregnant and who received antivirals late were over-represented among influenza A H1N1pdm deaths in Argentina, though timeliness of antiviral treatment improved during the pandemic.

  8. Central nervous system manifestations in pediatric patients with influenza A H1N1 infection during the 2009 pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilking, Ashley N; Elliott, Elizabeth; Garcia, Melissa N; Murray, Kristy O; Munoz, Flor M

    2014-09-01

    A novel H1N1 influenza A virus (A(H1N1)pdm09) particularly affected individuals central nervous system complications associated with pandemic influenza in the pediatric population. Retrospective review of patients with laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 infection and central nervous system manifestations at Texas Children's Hospital between April 2009 and June 2010. Among 365 patients with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, 32 (8.8%) had central nervous system manifestations at a median age of 4 years. Eight (25.0%) were previously healthy, and 12 (37.5%) had neurological pre-existing conditions. Of the 32 cases of influenza with neurological complications, seizure (n = 17; 53.1%) was the most common central nervous system manifestation, followed by encephalitis (n = 4; 12.5%), meningitis (n = 4; 12.5%), encephalopathy (n = 3; 9.4%), meningismus (n = 3; 9.4%), focal hemorrhagic brain lesions (n = 2; 6.3%), brain infarction (n = 1; 3.1%), and sensorineural hearing loss (n = 1; 3.1%). Two patients demonstrated two or more types of central nervous system complications. One patient had abnormal cerebrospinal fluid with pleocytosis. Almost two thirds of the children with central nervous system manifestations required intensive care unit admission and nearly half required mechanical ventilation. There were no deaths. Patients with pre-existing neurological conditions were at greater risk for central nervous system manifestations during pandemic influenza infection. Patients with central nervous system manifestations were more likely to experience severe illness, characterized by intensive care unit admission and mechanical ventilation, although overall outcomes were good. Influenza prevention in patients with underlying medical conditions, particularly those with neurological conditions, is important. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Immune response after one or two doses of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) monovalent, AS03-adjuvanted vaccine in HIV infected adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bybeck Nielsen, Allan; Nielsen, Henriette Schjønning; Nielsen, Lars

    2012-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Continued research is needed to evaluate and improve the immunogenicity of influenza vaccines in HIV infected patients. We aimed to determine the antibody responses after one or two doses of the AS03-adjuvanted pandemic influenza A (H1N1) vaccine in HIV infected patients. METHOD......: Following the influenza season 2009/2010, 219 HIV infected patients were included and divided into three groups depending on whether they received none (n=60), one (n=31) or two (n=128) doses of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) vaccine. At inclusion, antibody titers for all patients were analyzed and compared...... to pre-pandemic antibody titers analyzed from serum samples in a local storage facility. RESULTS: 4-9 months after a single immunization, we found a seroprotection rate of 77.4% and seroconversion rate of 67.7%. After two immunizations the rates increased significantly to seroprotection rate of 97...

  10. A novel monoclonal antibody effective against lethal challenge with swine-lineage and 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza viruses in mice

    Science.gov (United States)

    The HA protein of the 2009 pandemic H1N1viruses (14 H1N1pdm) is antigenically closely related to the HA of classical North American swine H1N1 influenza viruses (cH1N1). Since 1998, through reassortment and incorporation of HA genes from human H3N2 and H1N1 influenza viruses, swine influenza strains...

  11. From press release to news: mapping the framing of the 2009 H1N1 A influenza pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Seow Ting; Basnyat, Iccha

    2013-01-01

    Pandemics challenge conventional assumptions about health promotion, message development, community engagement, and the role of news media. To understand the use of press releases in news coverage of pandemics, this study traces the development of framing devices from a government public health agency's press releases to news stories about the 2009 H1N1 A influenza pandemic. The communication management of the H1N1 pandemic, an international news event with local implications, by the Singapore government is a rich locus for understanding the dynamics of public relations, health communication, and journalism. A content analysis shows that the evolution of information from press release to news is marked by significant changes in media frames, including the expansion and diversification in dominant frames and emotion appeals, stronger thematic framing, more sources of information, conversion of loss frames into gain frames, and amplification of positive tone favoring the public health agency's position. Contrary to previous research that suggests that government information subsidies passed almost unchanged through media gatekeepers, the news coverage of the pandemic reflects journalists' selectivity in disseminating the government press releases and in mediating the information flow and frames from the press releases.

  12. Hospital-based pandemic influenza preparedness and response: strategies to increase surge capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scarfone, Richard J; Coffin, Susan; Fieldston, Evan S; Falkowski, Grace; Cooney, Mary G; Grenfell, Stephanie

    2011-06-01

    In the spring of 2009, the first patients infected with 2009 H1N1 virus were arriving for care in hospitals in the United States. Anticipating a second wave of infection, our hospital leaders initiated multidisciplinary planning activities to prepare to increase capacity by expansion of emergency department (ED) and inpatient functional space and redeployment of medical personnel. During the fall pandemic surge, this urban, tertiary-care children's hospital experienced a 48% increase in ED visits and a 12% increase in daily peak inpatient census. However, several strategies were effective in mitigating the pandemic's impact including using a portion of the hospital's lobby for ED waiting, using a subspecialty clinic and a 24-hour short stay unit to care for ED patients, and using physicians not board certified in pediatric emergency medicine and inpatient-unit medical nurses to care for ED patients. The average time patients waited to be seen by an ED physician and the proportion of children leaving the ED without being seen by a physician was less than for the period when seasonal influenza peaked in the winter of 2008-2009. Furthermore, the ED did not go on divert status, no elective medical or surgical admissions required cancellation, and there were no increases in serious patient safety events. Our health center successfully met the challenges posed by the 2009 H1N1 outbreak. The intent in sharing the details of our planning and experience is to allow others to determine which elements of this planning might be adapted for managing a surge of patients in their setting.

  13. Oseltamivir compounding in the hospital pharmacy during the (H1N1 influenza pandemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Márcia Lúcia de Mário Marin

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available AIMS: Pandemics impose large demands on the health care system. The supply of appropriate chemotherapeutic agents, namely oseltamivir solution, presented a serious challenge in the recent influenza pandemic. This study reports on the rational series of pharmacotechnical steps that were followed to appropriately handle bulk oseltamivir powder to meet the increased demand. METHODS: During a six-week period in August and September of 2009, a task force was created in the Central Pharmacy of Hospital das Clínicas to convert imported oseltamivir phosphate into ready-to-use solution for utilization by physicians and public health authorities. The protocol included dissolution, physico-chemical tests and the bottling of a liquid microdose formulation for emergency room and outpatient dispensing with adequate quality control during all phases. RESULTS: The successful production routine was based on a specially designed flowchart according to which a batch of 33210 g of oseltamivir powder was converted into 32175 solution units during the aforementioned period with a net loss of only 2.6%. The end products were bottles containing 50 ml of 15 mg/mL oseltamivir solution. The measured concentration was stable and accurate (97.5% - 102.0% of the nominal value. The drug was prescribed as both a prophylactic and therapeutic agent. DISCUSSION: Hospital pharmacies are conventionally engaged in the manipulation of medical prescriptions and specialty drugs. They are generally responsible for only small-scale equipment used for manufacturing and quality-control procedures. The compounding of oseltamivir was a unique effort dictated by exceptional circumstances. CONCLUSION: The shortage of oseltamivir solution for clinical use was solved by emergency operationalization of a semi-industrial process in which bulk powder was converted into practical vials for prompt delivery.

  14. Low adherence to influenza vaccination campaigns: is the H1N1 virus pandemic to be blamed?

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    Trivellin Valeria

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Over the last few months, debates about the handling of the influenza virus A (H1N1 pandemic took place, in particular regarding the change of the WHO pandemic definition, economic interests, the dramatic communication style of mass media. The activation of plans to reduce the virus diffusion resulted in an important investment of resources. Were those investments proportionate to the risk? Was the pandemic overrated? The workload of the Pediatric Emergency Room (P.E.R. at a teaching hospital in Varese (Northern Italy was investigated in order to evaluate the local diffusion and severity of the new H1N1 influenza epidemic. Discussion A 100% increase of the number of P.E.R. visits, particularly for influenza-like illness, was recorded during weeks 42-46 of 2009 (October, 17 to November, 2; the low rate of hospitalization and the mild presentation of the infection gave rise to the conclusion that the pandemic risk was overrated. Mass media communications concerning the new virus created a disproportionate fear in the population that significantly enhanced the burden of cares at the hospital. In the absence of generally implemented measures for etiological diagnosis, the actual incidence of the H1N1 infection could not be estimated. Virus identification, in fact, was limited to children showing severe symptoms after consultancy with an infectious disease specialist. The alarming nature of the communication campaign and the choice to limit etiologic diagnosis to severe cases created a climate of uncertainty which significantly contributed to the massive admissions to the P.E.R.. Summary The communication strategy adopted by the mass media was an important element during the pandemic: the absence of clarity contributed to the spread of a pandemic phobia that appeared to result more from the sensationalism of the campaign than from infection with the novel influenza A variant of human, avian, swine origin virus. One relevant effect

  15. Value for Money in H1N1 Influenza: A Systematic Review of the Cost-Effectiveness of Pandemic Interventions.

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    Pasquini-Descomps, Hélène; Brender, Nathalie; Maradan, David

    2017-06-01

    The 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic generated additional data and triggered new studies that opened debate over the optimal strategy for handling a pandemic. The lessons-learned documents from the World Health Organization show the need for a cost estimation of the pandemic response during the risk-assessment phase. Several years after the crisis, what conclusions can we draw from this field of research? The main objective of this article was to provide an analysis of the studies that present cost-effectiveness or cost-benefit analyses for A/H1N1 pandemic interventions since 2009 and to identify which measures seem most cost-effective. We reviewed 18 academic articles that provide cost-effectiveness or cost-benefit analyses for A/H1N1 pandemic interventions since 2009. Our review converts the studies' results into a cost-utility measure (cost per disability-adjusted life-year or quality-adjusted life-year) and presents the contexts of severity and fatality. The existing studies suggest that hospital quarantine, vaccination, and usage of the antiviral stockpile are highly cost-effective, even for mild pandemics. However, school closures, antiviral treatments, and social distancing may not qualify as efficient measures, for a virus like 2009's H1N1 and a willingness-to-pay threshold of $45,000 per disability-adjusted life-year. Such interventions may become cost-effective for severe crises. This study helps to shed light on the cost-utility of various interventions, and may support decision making, among other criteria, for future pandemics. Nonetheless, one should consider these results carefully, considering these may not apply to a specific crisis or country, and a dedicated cost-effectiveness assessment should be conducted at the time. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Comparison of CATs, CURB-65 and PMEWS as triage tools in pandemic influenza admissions to UK hospitals: case control analysis using retrospective data.

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    Puja R Myles

    Full Text Available Triage tools have an important role in pandemics to identify those most likely to benefit from higher levels of care. We compared Community Assessment Tools (CATs, the CURB-65 score, and the Pandemic Medical Early Warning Score (PMEWS; to predict higher levels of care (high dependency--Level 2 or intensive care--Level 3 and/or death in patients at or shortly after admission to hospital with A/H1N1 2009 pandemic influenza. This was a case-control analysis using retrospectively collected data from the FLU-CIN cohort (1040 adults, 480 children with PCR-confirmed A/H1N1 2009 influenza. Area under receiver operator curves (AUROC, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values and negative predictive values were calculated. CATs best predicted Level 2/3 admissions in both adults [AUROC (95% CI: CATs 0.77 (0.73, 0.80; CURB-65 0.68 (0.64, 0.72; PMEWS 0.68 (0.64, 0.73, p<0.001] and children [AUROC: CATs 0.74 (0.68, 0.80; CURB-65 0.52 (0.46, 0.59; PMEWS 0.69 (0.62, 0.75, p<0.001]. CURB-65 and CATs were similar in predicting death in adults with both performing better than PMEWS; and CATs best predicted death in children. CATs were the best predictor of Level 2/3 care and/or death for both adults and children. CATs are potentially useful triage tools for predicting need for higher levels of care and/or mortality in patients of all ages.

  17. Economic evaluation of the vaccination program against seasonal and pandemic A/H1N1 influenza among customs officers in Greece.

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    Mamma, Maria; Spandidos, Demetrios A

    2013-01-01

    Health policies from many countries recommend influenza vaccination of "high-priority" professional groups, including customs officers. Our aim was to estimate the economic impact of the vaccination program against influenza among customs officers in Greece during the 2009/2010 period. We developed a decision analytical computational simulation model including dynamic transmission elements that estimated the economic impact of various scenarios with different attack rates, symptomatic percentages and vaccination participation among customs officers. We also assessed in real-time the economic impact of the national 2009/2010 campaign against seasonal and pandemic A/H1N1 influenza. Implementing a seasonal and pandemic A/H1N1 influenza vaccination program among customs officers in Greece with a participation rate of 30%, influenza vaccination was not cost-saving in any of the studied influenza scenarios. When the participation rate reached 100%, the program was cost-saving, when the influenza attack rate was 30% and the symptomatic rate 65%. The real-time estimated mean net cost-benefit value in 2009/2010 period was -7.3 euros/custom officer. With different clinical scenarios, providing a vaccination program against seasonal and pandemic A/H1N1 influenza can incur a substantial net benefit for customs offices. However, the size of the benefit strongly depends upon the attack rate of influenza, the symptomatic rate as well as the participation rate of the customs officers in the program. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. The seroprevalence of pandemic influenza H1N1 (2009 virus in China.

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    Cuiling Xu

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Mainland China experienced pandemic influenza H1N1 (2009 virus (pH1N1 with peak activity during November-December 2009. To understand the geographic extent, risk factors, and attack rate of pH1N1 infection in China we conducted a nationwide serological survey to determine the prevalence of antibodies to pH1N1.Stored serum samples (n = 2,379 collected during 2006-2008 were used to estimate baseline serum reactogenicity to pH1N1. In January 2010, we used a multistage-stratified random sampling method to select 50,111 subjects who met eligibility criteria and collected serum samples and administered a standardized questionnaire. Antibody response to pH1N1 was measured using haemagglutination inhibition (HI assay and the weighted seroprevalence was calculated using the Taylor series linearization method. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to examine risk factors for pH1N1 seropositivity. Baseline seroprevalence of pH1N1 antibody (HI titer ≥40 was 1.2%. The weighted seroprevalence of pH1N1 among the Chinese population was 21.5%(vaccinated: 62.0%; unvaccinated: 17.1%. Among unvaccinated participants, those aged 6-15 years (32.9% and 16-24 years (30.3% had higher seroprevalence compared with participants aged 25-59 years (10.7% and ≥60 years (9.9%, P<0.0001. Children in kindergarten and students had higher odds of seropositivity than children in family care (OR: 1.36 and 2.05, respectively. We estimated that 207.7 million individuals (15.9% experienced pH1N1 infection in China.The Chinese population had low pre-existing immunity to pH1N1 and experienced a relatively high attack rate in 2009 of this virus. We recommend routine control measures such as vaccination to reduce transmission and spread of seasonal and pandemic influenza viruses.

  19. Knowledge, motivation, and attitudes of Hungarian family physicians toward pandemic influenza vaccination in the 2009/10 influenza season: questionnaire study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rurik, Imre; Langmár, Zoltán; Márton, Hajnalka; Kovács, Eszter; Szigethy, Endre; Ilyés, István

    2011-04-15

    To evaluate the knowledge, motivation, and attitudes of Hungarian family physicians toward pandemic influenza vaccination in the 2009/10 influenza season. A questionnaire with 20 questions was developed and sent to 232 family physicians in 3 largest Hungarian cities: Budapest, Debrecen, and Miskolc. The study was conducted in December 2009 and January 2010. A hundred and ninety eight (85%) physicians answered the questionnaire adequately. Respondents believed that the influenza outbreak represented less of a threat to their practices than to Hungary or the world as a whole. They mostly agreed that vaccination was important and were frequently dissatisfied with the support from health authorities. The proportion of vaccinated patients ranged between 2% and 53%, without differences according to geographical region, age, sex, and duration of physicians' employment in family practice. Physicians who were satisfied with the payment for procedures and underwent vaccination themselves were more active in vaccination. Health authorities should provide clear and evidence-based professional support to family physicians and should encourage them to get vaccinated against pandemic influenza, while insurance funds have to establish appropriate reimbursement system.

  20. Neuraminidase and hemagglutinin matching patterns of a highly pathogenic avian and two pandemic H1N1 influenza A viruses.

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    Yonghui Zhang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Influenza A virus displays strong reassortment characteristics, which enable it to achieve adaptation in human infection. Surveying the reassortment and virulence of novel viruses is important in the prevention and control of an influenza pandemic. Meanwhile, studying the mechanism of reassortment may accelerate the development of anti-influenza strategies. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The hemagglutinin (HA and neuraminidase (NA matching patterns of two pandemic H1N1 viruses (the 1918 and current 2009 strains and a highly pathogenic avian influenza A virus (H5N1 were studied using a pseudotyped particle (pp system. Our data showed that four of the six chimeric HA/NA combinations could produce infectious pps, and that some of the chimeric pps had greater infectivity than did their ancestors, raising the possibility of reassortment among these viruses. The NA of H5N1 (A/Anhui/1/2005 could hardly reassort with the HAs of the two H1N1 viruses. Many biological characteristics of HA and NA, including infectivity, hemagglutinating ability, and NA activity, are dependent on their matching pattern. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our data suggest the existence of an interaction between HA and NA, and the HA NA matching pattern is critical for valid viral reassortment.

  1. Brain magnetic resonance imaging in acute phase of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009--associated encephalopathy in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishida, Yu; Kawashima, Hisashi; Morichi, Shinichiro; Yamanaka, Gaku; Okumura, Akihisa; Nakagawa, Satoshi; Morishima, Tsuneo

    2015-02-01

    Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 has been shown to be associated more with neurological complications than the seasonal influenza virus. In this study, we focused on the clinical usefulness of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in the acute phase of influenza A (H1N1) 2009-associated encephalopathy. A questionnaire was distributed to pediatric and general hospitals in Japan that treat children with encephalopathy. We conducted a questionnaire-based study involving the collection of information regarding 207 patients with encephalopathy. Brain MRI was performed in 97 of these 207 patients in the age group of 9 months to 15 years (mean, 7.5 years) within 48 hours after the development of encephalopathy symptoms. Sixty-six patients (68%) showed normal imaging. Diffuse brain edema was visible in five patients and an abnormal signal in the deep gray matter in two patients which is consistent with acute necrotizing encephalopathy. Abnormal signals of the splenial lesion, subcortical white matter (bright tree appearance), and cortical area were observed in 15, 1, and 8 patients, respectively. From our findings based on the questionnaire results, we suggest that MRI is useful for determining fatal cases of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 infection when performed in the acute phase. However, MRI is not useful in predicting the development of sequelae. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  2. Immune Responses in Acute and Convalescent Patients with Mild, Moderate and Severe Disease during the 2009 Influenza Pandemic in Norway

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    Mohn, Kristin G.-I.; Cox, Rebecca Jane; Tunheim, Gro; Berdal, Jan Erik; Hauge, Anna Germundsson; Jul-Larsen, Åsne; Peters, Bjoern; Oftung, Fredrik

    2015-01-01

    Increased understanding of immune responses influencing clinical severity during pandemic influenza infection is important for improved treatment and vaccine development. In this study we recruited 46 adult patients during the 2009 influenza pandemic and characterized humoral and cellular immune responses. Those included were either acute hospitalized or convalescent patients with different disease severities (mild, moderate or severe). In general, protective antibody responses increased with enhanced disease severity. In the acute patients, we found higher levels of TNF-α single-producing CD4+T-cells in the severely ill as compared to patients with moderate disease. Stimulation of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) from a subset of acute patients with peptide T-cell epitopes showed significantly lower frequencies of influenza specific CD8+ compared with CD4+ IFN-γ T-cells in acute patients. Both T-cell subsets were predominantly directed against the envelope antigens (HA and NA). However, in the convalescent patients we found high levels of both CD4+ and CD8+ T-cells directed against conserved core antigens (NP, PA, PB, and M). The results indicate that the antigen targets recognized by the T-cell subsets may vary according to the phase of infection. The apparent low levels of cross-reactive CD8+ T-cells recognizing internal antigens in acute hospitalized patients suggest an important role for this T-cell subset in protective immunity against influenza. PMID:26606759

  3. [Laboratory diagnosis of pandemic influenza at the Department of Medical Microbiology of the Regional Authority of Public Health based in Banská Bystrica in the season 2009-2010].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kissová, R; Mad'arová, L; Klement, C

    2011-02-01

    The Department of Medical Microbiology of the Regional Authority of Public Health (RAPH) in Banská Bystrica serves as a catchment laboratory of virology for the Central Slovakia Region, and in the influenza season 2009/10, it also served as such for the East Slovakia Region. Specimens (nasopharyngeal swabs and post-mortem specimens) from patients with suspected influenza were obtained from both sentinel and non-sentinel physicians. The specimens were analyzed by a rapid test, followed by real-time PCR (RT-PCR) for influenza A or B diagnosis. RT-PCR subtyping for pandemic influenza A/H1N1 was performed. From May 2009 to June 2010, 2497 specimens were analyzed for the presence of influenza A and B viruses and in particular for the presence of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 virus. As many as 537 of 589 influenza A-positive specimens, i.e. 21.5% of all specimens analyzed and 91.2% of influenza A-positive specimens, were subtyped as pandemic influenza A/H1N1. In the influenza season 2009/10, the new pandemic influenza A/H1N1 clearly predominated in Central and Eastern Slovakia. PCR tests have played a key role in diagnosing patients with suspected pandemic influenza in the laboratory participating in the surveillance of influenza and influenza-like illness in the Slovak Republic.

  4. The low-pH stability discovered in neuraminidase of 1918 pandemic influenza A virus enhances virus replication.

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    Tadanobu Takahashi

    Full Text Available The "Spanish" pandemic influenza A virus, which killed more than 20 million worldwide in 1918-19, is one of the serious pathogens in recorded history. Characterization of the 1918 pandemic virus reconstructed by reverse genetics showed that PB1, hemagglutinin (HA, and neuraminidase (NA genes contributed to the viral replication and virulence of the 1918 pandemic influenza virus. However, the function of the NA gene has remained unknown. Here we show that the avian-like low-pH stability of sialidase activity discovered in the 1918 pandemic virus NA contributes to the viral replication efficiency. We found that deletion of Thr at position 435 or deletion of Gly at position 455 in the 1918 pandemic virus NA was related to the low-pH stability of the sialidase activity in the 1918 pandemic virus NA by comparison with the sequences of other human N1 NAs and sialidase activity of chimeric constructs. Both amino acids were located in or near the amino acid resides that were important for stabilization of the native tetramer structure in a low-pH condition like the N2 NAs of pandemic viruses that emerged in 1957 and 1968. Two reverse-genetic viruses were generated from a genetic background of A/WSN/33 (H1N1 that included low-pH-unstable N1 NA from A/USSR/92/77 (H1N1 and its counterpart N1 NA in which sialidase activity was converted to a low-pH-stable property by a deletion and substitutions of two amino acid residues at position 435 and 455 related to the low-pH stability of the sialidase activity in 1918 NA. The mutant virus that included "Spanish Flu"-like low-pH-stable NA showed remarkable replication in comparison with the mutant virus that included low-pH-unstable N1 NA. Our results suggest that the avian-like low-pH stability of sialidase activity in the 1918 pandemic virus NA contributes to the viral replication efficiency.

  5. Pandemic H1N1 influenza isolated from free-ranging Northern Elephant Seals in 2010 off the central California coast.

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    Tracey Goldstein

    Full Text Available Interspecies transmission of influenza A is an important factor in the evolution and ecology of influenza viruses. Marine mammals are in contact with a number of influenza reservoirs, including aquatic birds and humans, and this may facilitate transmission among avian and mammalian hosts. Virus isolation, whole genome sequencing, and hemagluttination inhibition assay confirmed that exposure to pandemic H1N1 influenza virus occurred among free-ranging Northern Elephant Seals (Mirounga angustirostris in 2010. Nasal swabs were collected from 42 adult female seals in April 2010, just after the animals had returned to the central California coast from their short post-breeding migration in the northeast Pacific. Swabs from two seals tested positive by RT-PCR for the matrix gene, and virus was isolated from each by inoculation into embryonic chicken eggs. Whole genome sequencing revealed greater than 99% homology with A/California/04/2009 (H1N1 that emerged in humans from swine in 2009. Analysis of more than 300 serum samples showed that samples collected early in 2010 (n = 100 were negative and by April animals began to test positive for antibodies against the pH1N1 virus (HI titer of ≥1∶40, supporting the molecular findings. In vitro characterizations studies revealed that viral replication was indistinguishable from that of reference strains of pH1N1 in canine kidney cells, but replication was inefficient in human epithelial respiratory cells, indicating these isolates may be elephant seal adapted viruses. Thus findings confirmed that exposure to pandemic H1N1 that was circulating in people in 2009 occurred among free-ranging Northern Elephant Seals in 2010 off the central California coast. This is the first report of pH1N1 (A/Elephant seal/California/1/2010 in any marine mammal and provides evidence for cross species transmission of influenza viruses in free-ranging wildlife and movement of influenza viruses between humans and wildlife.

  6. Antiviral stockpiles for influenza pandemics from the household perspective: treatment alone versus treatment with prophylaxis.

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    Kwok, Kin On; Leung, Gabriel M; Mak, Peter; Riley, Steven

    2013-06-01

    Model-based studies of antiviral use to mitigate the impact of moderate and severe influenza pandemics implicitly take the viewpoint of a central public health authority. However, it seems likely that the key decision of when to use antivirals will be made at the household level. We used a stochastic compartmental model of the transmission of influenza within and between households to evaluate the expected mortality under two strategies: households saving available antivirals for treatment only and households implementing prophylaxis as well as treatment. Given that every individual in the population was allocated a single course of antivirals, we investigated the impact of these two strategies for a wide range of AVED, the efficacy of antivirals in preventing death in severe cases (AVED=1 for complete protection). We found a cross-over point for our baseline parameter values in a regime where antivirals were still highly effective in reducing the chance of death: below AVED=0.9 the optimal strategy was for households to use both treatment and prophylaxis. We also considered the possibility that a small number of households might "cheat" by choosing to follow the treatment-only strategy when other households were following treatment with prophylaxis. The cross-over point for cheating households was considerably lower, at AVED=0.6, but substantially above 0. These results suggest that unless antivirals are almost completely effective in reducing the chance of death in serious cases, households will likely be better served implementing prophylaxis as well as treatment. More generally, our study illustrates the potential value of considering viewpoints other than a central authority when conducting model-based analysis of interventions against infectious disease. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Productive infection of human skeletal muscle cells by pandemic and seasonal influenza A(H1N1 viruses.

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    Marion Desdouits

    Full Text Available Besides the classical respiratory and systemic symptoms, unusual complications of influenza A infection in humans involve the skeletal muscles. Numerous cases of acute myopathy and/or rhabdomyolysis have been reported, particularly following the outbreak of pandemic influenza A(H1N1 in 2009. The pathogenesis of these influenza-associated myopathies (IAM remains unkown, although the direct infection of muscle cells is suspected. Here, we studied the susceptibility of cultured human primary muscle cells to a 2009 pandemic and a 2008 seasonal influenza A(H1N1 isolate. Using cells from different donors, we found that differentiated muscle cells (i. e. myotubes were highly susceptible to infection by both influenza A(H1N1 isolates, whereas undifferentiated cells (i. e. myoblasts were partially resistant. The receptors for influenza viruses, α2-6 and α2-3 linked sialic acids, were detected on the surface of myotubes and myoblasts. Time line of viral nucleoprotein (NP expression and nuclear export showed that the first steps of the viral replication cycle could take place in muscle cells. Infected myotubes and myoblasts exhibited budding virions and nuclear inclusions as observed by transmission electron microscopy and correlative light and electron microscopy. Myotubes, but not myoblasts, yielded infectious virus progeny that could further infect naive muscle cells after proteolytic treatment. Infection led to a cytopathic effect with the lysis of muscle cells, as characterized by the release of lactate dehydrogenase. The secretion of proinflammatory cytokines by muscle cells was not affected following infection. Our results are compatible with the hypothesis of a direct muscle infection causing rhabdomyolysis in IAM patients.

  8. Attack rates assessment of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza A in children and their contacts: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

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    Aharona Glatman-Freedman

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The recent H1N1 influenza A pandemic was marked by multiple reports of illness and hospitalization in children, suggesting that children may have played a major role in the propagation of the virus. A comprehensive detailed analysis of the attack rates among children as compared with their contacts in various settings is of great importance for understanding their unique role in influenza pandemics. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We searched MEDLINE (PubMed and Embase for published studies reporting outbreak investigations with direct measurements of attack rates of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza A among children, and quantified how these compare with those of their contacts. We identified 50 articles suitable for review, which reported school, household, travel and social events. The selected reports and our meta-analysis indicated that children had significantly higher attack rates as compared to adults, and that this phenomenon was observed for both virologically confirmed and clinical cases, in various settings and locations around the world. The review also provided insight into some characteristics of transmission between children and their contacts in the various settings. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: The consistently higher attack rates of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza A among children, as compared to adults, as well as the magnitude of the difference is important for understanding the contribution of children to disease burden, for implementation of mitigation strategies directed towards children, as well as more precise mathematical modeling and simulation of future influenza pandemics.

  9. Enhancement of collective immunity in Tokyo metropolitan area by selective vaccination against an emerging influenza pandemic.

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    Masaya M Saito

    Full Text Available Vaccination is a preventive measure against influenza that does not require placing restrictions on social activities. However, since the stockpile of vaccine that can be prepared before the arrival of an emerging pandemic strain is generally quite limited, one has to select priority target groups to which the first stockpile is distributed. In this paper, we study a simulation-based priority target selection method with the goal of enhancing the collective immunity of the whole population. To model the region in which the disease spreads, we consider an urban area composed of suburbs and central areas connected by a single commuter train line. Human activity is modelled following an agent-based approach. The degree to which collective immunity is enhanced is judged by the attack rate in unvaccinated people. The simulation results show that if students and office workers are given exclusive priority in the first three months, the attack rate can be reduced from [Formula: see text] in the baseline case down to 1-2%. In contrast, random vaccination only slightly reduces the attack rate. It should be noted that giving preference to active social groups does not mean sacrificing those at high risk, which corresponds to the elderly in our simulation model. Compared with the random administration of vaccine to all social groups, this design successfully reduces the attack rate across all age groups.

  10. Ecosystem Interactions Underlie the Spread of Avian Influenza A Viruses with Pandemic Potential.

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    Justin Bahl

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Despite evidence for avian influenza A virus (AIV transmission between wild and domestic ecosystems, the roles of bird migration and poultry trade in the spread of viruses remain enigmatic. In this study, we integrate ecosystem interactions into a phylogeographic model to assess the contribution of wild and domestic hosts to AIV distribution and persistence. Analysis of globally sampled AIV datasets shows frequent two-way transmission between wild and domestic ecosystems. In general, viral flow from domestic to wild bird populations was restricted to within a geographic region. In contrast, spillover from wild to domestic populations occurred both within and between regions. Wild birds mediated long-distance dispersal at intercontinental scales whereas viral spread among poultry populations was a major driver of regional spread. Viral spread between poultry flocks frequently originated from persistent lineages circulating in regions of intensive poultry production. Our analysis of long-term surveillance data demonstrates that meaningful insights can be inferred from integrating ecosystem into phylogeographic reconstructions that may be consequential for pandemic preparedness and livestock protection.

  11. Ecosystem Interactions Underlie the Spread of Avian Influenza A Viruses with Pandemic Potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahl, Justin; Pham, Truc T.; Hill, Nichola J.; Hussein, Islam T. M.; Ma, Eric J.; Easterday, Bernard C.; Halpin, Rebecca A.; Stockwell, Timothy B.; Wentworth, David E.; Kayali, Ghazi; Krauss, Scott; Schultz-Cherry, Stacey; Webster, Robert G.; Webby, Richard J.; Swartz, Michael D.; Smith, Gavin J. D.; Runstadler, Jonathan A.

    2016-01-01

    Despite evidence for avian influenza A virus (AIV) transmission between wild and domestic ecosystems, the roles of bird migration and poultry trade in the spread of viruses remain enigmatic. In this study, we integrate ecosystem interactions into a phylogeographic model to assess the contribution of wild and domestic hosts to AIV distribution and persistence. Analysis of globally sampled AIV datasets shows frequent two-way transmission between wild and domestic ecosystems. In general, viral flow from domestic to wild bird populations was restricted to within a geographic region. In contrast, spillover from wild to domestic populations occurred both within and between regions. Wild birds mediated long-distance dispersal at intercontinental scales whereas viral spread among poultry populations was a major driver of regional spread. Viral spread between poultry flocks frequently originated from persistent lineages circulating in regions of intensive poultry production. Our analysis of long-term surveillance data demonstrates that meaningful insights can be inferred from integrating ecosystem into phylogeographic reconstructions that may be consequential for pandemic preparedness and livestock protection. PMID:27166585

  12. Influenza Vaccination in Community Dwelling Elderly Persons

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.C.G. Voordouw (Bettie)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractAn influenza epidemic was first described in 1173, although there are reports of influenza as early as 412 BC. Recurrent epidemics and incidental pandemics caused by influenza virus are documented since the last 400 years. These were based upon clinical observation and epidemiology.

  13. Characterizing hospital workers' willingness to report to duty in an influenza pandemic through threat- and efficacy-based assessment

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    Catlett Christina L

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hospital-based providers' willingness to report to work during an influenza pandemic is a critical yet under-studied phenomenon. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM has been shown to be useful for understanding adaptive behavior of public health workers to an unknown risk, and thus offers a framework for examining scenario-specific willingness to respond among hospital staff. Methods We administered an anonymous online EPPM-based survey about attitudes/beliefs toward emergency response, to all 18,612 employees of the Johns Hopkins Hospital from January to March 2009. Surveys were completed by 3426 employees (18.4%, approximately one third of whom were health professionals. Results Demographic and professional distribution of respondents was similar to all hospital staff. Overall, more than one-in-four (28% hospital workers indicated they were not willing to respond to an influenza pandemic scenario if asked but not required to do so. Only an additional 10% were willing if required. One-third (32% of participants reported they would be unwilling to respond in the event of a more severe pandemic influenza scenario. These response rates were consistent across different departments, and were one-third lower among nurses as compared with physicians. Respondents who were hesitant to agree to work additional hours when required were 17 times less likely to respond during a pandemic if asked. Sixty percent of the workers perceived their peers as likely to report to work in such an emergency, and were ten times more likely than others to do so themselves. Hospital employees with a perception of high efficacy had 5.8 times higher declared rates of willingness to respond to an influenza pandemic. Conclusions Significant gaps exist in hospital workers' willingness to respond, and the EPPM is a useful framework to assess these gaps. Several attitudinal indicators can help to identify hospital employees unlikely to respond. The

  14. Natural T Cell–mediated Protection against Seasonal and Pandemic Influenza. Results of the Flu Watch Cohort Study

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    Wang, Lili; Goonetilleke, Nilu; Fragaszy, Ellen B.; Bermingham, Alison; Copas, Andrew; Dukes, Oliver; Millett, Elizabeth R. C.; Nazareth, Irwin; Nguyen-Van-Tam, Jonathan S.; Watson, John M.; Zambon, Maria; Johnson, Anne M.; McMichael, Andrew J.

    2015-01-01

    Rationale: A high proportion of influenza infections are asymptomatic. Animal and human challenge studies and observational studies suggest T cells protect against disease among those infected, but the impact of T-cell immunity at the population level is unknown. Objectives: To investigate whether naturally preexisting T-cell responses targeting highly conserved internal influenza proteins could provide cross-protective immunity against pandemic and seasonal influenza. Methods: We quantified influenza A(H3N2) virus–specific T cells in a population cohort during seasonal and pandemic periods between 2006 and 2010. Follow-up included paired serology, symptom reporting, and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) investigation of symptomatic cases. Measurements and Main Results: A total of 1,414 unvaccinated individuals had baseline T-cell measurements (1,703 participant observation sets). T-cell responses to A(H3N2) virus nucleoprotein (NP) dominated and strongly cross-reacted with A(H1N1)pdm09 NP (P < 0.001) in participants lacking antibody to A(H1N1)pdm09. Comparison of paired preseason and post-season sera (1,431 sets) showed 205 (14%) had evidence of infection based on fourfold influenza antibody titer rises. The presence of NP-specific T cells before exposure to virus correlated with less symptomatic, PCR-positive influenza A (overall adjusted odds ratio, 0.27; 95% confidence interval, 0.11–0.68; P = 0.005, during pandemic [P = 0.047] and seasonal [P = 0.049] periods). Protection was independent of baseline antibodies. Influenza-specific T-cell responses were detected in 43%, indicating a substantial population impact. Conclusions: Naturally occurring cross-protective T-cell immunity protects against symptomatic PCR-confirmed disease in those with evidence of infection and helps to explain why many infections do not cause symptoms. Vaccines stimulating T cells may provide important cross-protective immunity. PMID:25844934

  15. Knowledge, attitude, and behaviour of public health doctors towards pandemic influenza compared to the general population in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Torre, Giuseppe; Semyonov, Leda; Mannocci, Alice; Boccia, Antonio

    2012-02-01

    To study differences between public health physicians' and general population's knowledge, attitude, and behaviours towards an influenza pandemic. During winter 2009, an anonymous questionnaire online (www.ijph.it) of 34 questions was available for participants, structured into three parts: socio-demographic information, people's knowledge, and behaviours about influenza H1N1. 836 persons were interviewed (335 physicians and 501 not physicians). Of these, 50.8% of physicians and 78.1% of not physicians were aged less than 50 years and 57.6% of physicians and 31.7% of not physicians were male. Physicians were more interested to be updated about the pandemic (90.6% versus 88.4% of not physicians; p = 0.003); not physicians were more inclined to avoid crowded places (29.7% versus 17.6% of physicians; p health facilities' internal communication (33.1%), while for not physicians being watching the national television news (34.1%) and surfing the internet (30.9%). During the spread of the pandemic flu, a lot of information was propagated chaotically. The information given were not always truthful and often they were interpreted incorrectly or sometimes only partially understood by the population, and this needs to be taken into account for future successful communication in cases of emergency.

  16. Case-based reported mortality associated with laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1 2009 virus infection in the Netherlands: the 2009-2010 pandemic season versus the 2010-2011 influenza season

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    Timen Aura

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In contrast to seasonal influenza epidemics, where the majority of deaths occur amongst elderly, a considerable part of the 2009 pandemic influenza related deaths concerned relatively young people. In the Netherlands, all deaths associated with laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1 2009 virus infection had to be notified, both during the 2009-2010 pandemic season and the 2010-2011 influenza season. To assess whether and to what extent pandemic mortality patterns were reverting back to seasonal patterns, a retrospective analyses of all notified fatal cases associated with laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1 2009 virus infection was performed. Methods The notification database, including detailed information about the clinical characteristics of all notified deaths, was used to perform a comprehensive analysis of all deceased patients with a laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1 2009 virus infection. Characteristics of the fatalities with respect to age and underlying medical conditions were analysed, comparing the 2009-2010 pandemic and the 2010-2011 influenza season. Results A total of 65 fatalities with a laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1 2009 virus infection were notified in 2009-2010 and 38 in 2010-2011. During the pandemic season, the population mortality rates peaked in persons aged 0-15 and 55-64 years. In the 2010-2011 influenza season, peaks in mortality were seen in persons aged 0-15 and 75-84 years. During the 2010-2011 influenza season, the height of first peak was lower compared to that during the pandemic season. Underlying immunological disorders were more common in the pandemic season compared to the 2010-2011 season (p = 0.02, and cardiovascular disorders were more common in the 2010-2011 season (p = 0.005. Conclusions The mortality pattern in the 2010-2011 influenza season still resembled the 2009-2010 pandemic season with a peak in relatively young age groups, but concurrently a clear shift toward

  17. The 2009 A(H1N1) influenza pandemic in the French Armed Forces: epidemiological surveillance and operational management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pohl, Jean-Baptiste; Mayet, Aurélie; Bédubourg, Gabriel; Duron, Sandrine; Michel, Rémy; Deparis, Xavier; Rapp, Christophe; Godart, Patrick; Migliani, René; Meynard, Jean-Baptiste

    2014-02-01

    The main objective of this study was to evaluate the contribution of a newly implemented daily surveillance system to the management of the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza pandemic by the military decision-makers at different levels in the French Department of Defence. The study sample included all medical advisors in the Ministry of Defence and the French Armed Forces Staff and also the members of the specific committee dedicated to flu pandemic control. The variables studied were mental representation of epidemiology, relevance, usefulness, and real-time use of surveillance data using quantitative questionnaires and qualitative face-to-face semistructured interviews. Among the risk managers of the flu pandemic in the Armed Forces, 84% responded. The data generated by epidemiological surveillance were considered relevant and useful, and were reported as effectively used. On the basis of the information produced, concrete actions were planned and implemented in the French Armed Forces. In a pandemic situation involving low mortality, the daily monitoring of the disease did not target public health issues, but it was mainly used to assess the availability of the Armed Forces in real time. For the military staff, epidemiological surveillance represents an essential information tool for the conduct of operations. Reprint & Copyright © 2014 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

  18. Assessing Google flu trends performance in the United States during the 2009 influenza virus A (H1N1 pandemic.

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    Samantha Cook

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Google Flu Trends (GFT uses anonymized, aggregated internet search activity to provide near-real time estimates of influenza activity. GFT estimates have shown a strong correlation with official influenza surveillance data. The 2009 influenza virus A (H1N1 pandemic [pH1N1] provided the first opportunity to evaluate GFT during a non-seasonal influenza outbreak. In September 2009, an updated United States GFT model was developed using data from the beginning of pH1N1. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We evaluated the accuracy of each U.S. GFT model by comparing weekly estimates of ILI (influenza-like illness activity with the U.S. Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet. For each GFT model we calculated the correlation and RMSE (root mean square error between model estimates and ILINet for four time periods: pre-H1N1, Summer H1N1, Winter H1N1, and H1N1 overall (Mar 2009-Dec 2009. We also compared the number of queries, query volume, and types of queries (e.g., influenza symptoms, influenza complications in each model. Both models' estimates were highly correlated with ILINet pre-H1N1 and over the entire surveillance period, although the original model underestimated the magnitude of ILI activity during pH1N1. The updated model was more correlated with ILINet than the original model during Summer H1N1 (r = 0.95 and 0.29, respectively. The updated model included more search query terms than the original model, with more queries directly related to influenza infection, whereas the original model contained more queries related to influenza complications. CONCLUSIONS: Internet search behavior changed during pH1N1, particularly in the categories "influenza complications" and "term for influenza." The complications associated with pH1N1, the fact that pH1N1 began in the summer rather than winter, and changes in health-seeking behavior each may have played a part. Both GFT models performed well prior to and during pH1

  19. Assessing Google Flu Trends Performance in the United States during the 2009 Influenza Virus A (H1N1) Pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Samantha; Conrad, Corrie; Fowlkes, Ashley L.; Mohebbi, Matthew H.

    2011-01-01

    Background Google Flu Trends (GFT) uses anonymized, aggregated internet search activity to provide near-real time estimates of influenza activity. GFT estimates have shown a strong correlation with official influenza surveillance data. The 2009 influenza virus A (H1N1) pandemic [pH1N1] provided the first opportunity to evaluate GFT during a non-seasonal influenza outbreak. In September 2009, an updated United States GFT model was developed using data from the beginning of pH1N1. Methodology/Principal Findings We evaluated the accuracy of each U.S. GFT model by comparing weekly estimates of ILI (influenza-like illness) activity with the U.S. Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet). For each GFT model we calculated the correlation and RMSE (root mean square error) between model estimates and ILINet for four time periods: pre-H1N1, Summer H1N1, Winter H1N1, and H1N1 overall (Mar 2009–Dec 2009). We also compared the number of queries, query volume, and types of queries (e.g., influenza symptoms, influenza complications) in each model. Both models' estimates were highly correlated with ILINet pre-H1N1 and over the entire surveillance period, although the original model underestimated the magnitude of ILI activity during pH1N1. The updated model was more correlated with ILINet than the original model during Summer H1N1 (r = 0.95 and 0.29, respectively). The updated model included more search query terms than the original model, with more queries directly related to influenza infection, whereas the original model contained more queries related to influenza complications. Conclusions Internet search behavior changed during pH1N1, particularly in the categories “influenza complications” and “term for influenza.” The complications associated with pH1N1, the fact that pH1N1 began in the summer rather than winter, and changes in health-seeking behavior each may have played a part. Both GFT models performed well prior to and during pH1N1

  20. The Evaluations of Swine Flu Magnitudes in TV News: A Comparative Analysis of Paired Influenza Pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Po-Lin; Meng, Juan

    2015-01-01

    This study examined how major TV news networks covered two flu pandemics in 1976 and 2009 in terms of news frames, mortality exemplars, mortality subject attributes, vaccination, evaluation approaches, and news sources. Results showed that the first pandemic was frequently framed with the medical/scientific and political/legal issues, while the second pandemic was emphasized with the health risk issue in TV news. Both flu pandemics were regularly reported with mortality exemplars, but the focus in the first pandemic was on the flu virus threat and vaccination side effects, while the vaccination shortage was frequently revealed in the second outbreak.

  1. Avian and pandemic human influenza policy in South-East Asia: the interface between economic and public health imperatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pongcharoensuk, Petcharat; Adisasmito, Wiku; Sat, Le Minh; Silkavute, Pornpit; Muchlisoh, Lilis; Cong Hoat, Pham; Coker, Richard

    2012-08-01

    The aim of this study was to analyse the contemporary policies regarding avian and human pandemic influenza control in three South-East Asia countries: Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam. An analysis of poultry vaccination policy was used to explore the broader policy of influenza A H5N1 control in the region. The policy of antiviral stockpiling with oseltamivir, a scarce regional resource, was used to explore human pandemic influenza preparedness policy. Several policy analysis theories were applied to analyse the debate on the use of vaccination for poultry and stockpiling of antiviral drugs in each country case study. We conducted a comparative analysis across emergent themes. The study found that whilst Indonesia and Vietnam introduced poultry vaccination programmes, Thailand rejected this policy approach. By contrast, all three countries adopted similar strategic policies for antiviral stockpiling in preparation. In relation to highly pathogenic avian influenza, economic imperatives are of critical importance. Whilst Thailand's poultry industry is large and principally an export economy, Vietnam's and Indonesia's are for domestic consumption. The introduction of a poultry vaccination policy in Thailand would have threatened its potential to trade and had a major impact on its economy. Powerful domestic stakeholders in Vietnam and Indonesia, by contrast, were concerned less about international trade and more about maintaining a healthy domestic poultry population. Evidence on vaccination was drawn upon differently depending upon strategic economic positioning either to support or oppose the policy. With influenza A H5N1 endemic in some countries of the region, these policy differences raise questions around regional coherence of policies and the pursuit of an agreed overarching goal, be that eradication or mitigation. Moreover, whilst economic imperatives have been critically important in guiding policy formulation in the agriculture sector, questions arise

  2. Evaluating Syndromic surveillance systems at institutions of higher education (IHEs: A retrospective analysis of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic at two universities

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    May Larissa

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Syndromic surveillance has been widely adopted as a real-time monitoring tool for timely response to disease outbreaks. During the second wave of the pH1N1 pandemic in Fall 2009, two major universities in Washington, DC collected data that were potentially indicative of influenza-like illness (ILI cases in students and staff. In this study, our objectives were three-fold. The primary goal of this study was to characterize the impact of pH1N1 on the campuses as clearly as possible given the data available and their likely biases. In addition, we sought to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the data series themselves, in order to inform these two universities and other institutions of higher education (IHEs about real-time surveillance systems that are likely to provide the most utility in future outbreaks (at least to the extent that it is possible to generalize from this analysis. Methods We collected a wide variety of data that covered both student ILI cases reported to medical and non-medical staff, employee absenteeism, and hygiene supply distribution records (from University A only. Communication data were retrieved from university broadcasts, university preparedness websites, and H1N1-related on campus media reports. Regional data based on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (CDC ILINet surveillance network, American College Health Association (ACHA pandemic influenza surveillance data, and local Google Flu Trends were used as external data sets. We employed a "triangulation" approach for data analysis in which multiple contemporary data sources are compared to identify time patterns that are likely to reflect biases as well as those that are more likely to be indicative of actual infection rates. Results Medical personnel observed an early peak at both universities immediately after school began in early September and a second peak in early November

  3. Evaluating syndromic surveillance systems at institutions of higher education (IHEs): a retrospective analysis of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic at two universities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ying; May, Larissa; Stoto, Michael A

    2011-07-26

    Syndromic surveillance has been widely adopted as a real-time monitoring tool for timely response to disease outbreaks. During the second wave of the pH1N1 pandemic in Fall 2009, two major universities in Washington, DC collected data that were potentially indicative of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases in students and staff. In this study, our objectives were three-fold. The primary goal of this study was to characterize the impact of pH1N1 on the campuses as clearly as possible given the data available and their likely biases. In addition, we sought to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the data series themselves, in order to inform these two universities and other institutions of higher education (IHEs) about real-time surveillance systems that are likely to provide the most utility in future outbreaks (at least to the extent that it is possible to generalize from this analysis). We collected a wide variety of data that covered both student ILI cases reported to medical and non-medical staff, employee absenteeism, and hygiene supply distribution records (from University A only). Communication data were retrieved from university broadcasts, university preparedness websites, and H1N1-related on campus media reports. Regional data based on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (CDC ILINet) surveillance network, American College Health Association (ACHA) pandemic influenza surveillance data, and local Google Flu Trends were used as external data sets. We employed a "triangulation" approach for data analysis in which multiple contemporary data sources are compared to identify time patterns that are likely to reflect biases as well as those that are more likely to be indicative of actual infection rates. Medical personnel observed an early peak at both universities immediately after school began in early September and a second peak in early November; only the second peak corresponded to patterns in

  4. Influenza in hospitalized children in Ireland in the pandemic period and the 2010/2011 season: risk factors for paediatric intensive-care-unit admission.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Rebolledo, J

    2013-11-11

    SUMMARY Influenza causes significant morbidity and mortality in children. This study\\'s objectives were to describe influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 during the pandemic, to compare it with circulating influenza in 2010\\/2011, and to identify risk factors for severe influenza defined as requiring admission to a paediatric intensive care unit (PICU). Children hospitalized with influenza during the pandemic were older, and more likely to have received antiviral therapy than children hospitalized during the 2010\\/2011 season. In 2010\\/2011, only one child admitted to a PICU with underlying medical conditions had been vaccinated. The risk of severe illness in the pandemic was higher in females and those with underlying conditions. In 2010\\/2011, infection with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 compared to other influenza viruses was a significant risk factor for severe disease. An incremental relationship was found between the number of underlying conditions and PICU admission. These findings highlight the importance of improving low vaccination uptake and increasing the use of antivirals in vulnerable children.

  5. The impact of mass gatherings and holiday traveling on the course of an influenza pandemic: a computational model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Pengyi; Keskinocak, Pinar; Swann, Julie L; Lee, Bruce Y

    2010-12-21

    During the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, concerns arose about the potential negative effects of mass public gatherings and travel on the course of the pandemic. Better understanding the potential effects of temporal changes in social mixing patterns could help public officials determine if and when to cancel large public gatherings or enforce regional travel restrictions, advisories, or surveillance during an epidemic. We develop a computer simulation model using detailed data from the state of Georgia to explore how various changes in social mixing and contact patterns, representing mass gatherings and holiday traveling, may affect the course of an influenza pandemic. Various scenarios with different combinations of the length of the mass gatherings or traveling period (range: 0.5 to 5 days), the proportion of the population attending the mass gathering events or on travel (range: 1% to 50%), and the initial reproduction numbers R0 (1.3, 1.5, 1.8) are explored. Mass gatherings that occur within 10 days before the epidemic peak can result in as high as a 10% relative increase in the peak prevalence and the total attack rate, and may have even worse impacts on local communities and travelers' families. Holiday traveling can lead to a second epidemic peak under certain scenarios. Conversely, mass traveling or gatherings may have little effect when occurring much earlier or later than the epidemic peak, e.g., more than 40 days earlier or 20 days later than the peak when the initial R0 = 1.5. Our results suggest that monitoring, postponing, or cancelling large public gatherings may be warranted close to the epidemic peak but not earlier or later during the epidemic. Influenza activity should also be closely monitored for a potential second peak if holiday traveling occurs when prevalence is high.

  6. Streptococcus pneumoniae Coinfection Is Correlated with the Severity of H1N1 Pandemic Influenza

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cisterna, Daniel; Savji, Nazir; Bussetti, Ana Valeria; Kapoor, Vishal; Hui, Jeffrey; Tokarz, Rafal; Briese, Thomas; Baumeister, Elsa; Lipkin, W. Ian

    2009-01-01

    .0004). In subjects 6 to 55 years of age, the adjusted odds ratio (OR) of severe disease in the presence of S. pneumoniae was 125.5 (95% confidence interval [CI], 16.95, 928.72; p<0.0001). Conclusions/Significance The association of S. pneumoniae with morbidity and mortality is established in the current and previous influenza pandemics. However, this study is the first to demonstrate the prognostic significance of non-invasive antemortem diagnosis of S. pneumoniae infection and may provide insights into clinical management. PMID:20046873

  7. Human monoclonal antibodies derived from a patient infected with 2009 pandemic influenza A virus broadly cross-neutralize group 1 influenza viruses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pan, Yang; Sasaki, Tadahiro; Kubota-Koketsu, Ritsuko; Inoue, Yuji; Yasugi, Mayo; Yamashita, Akifumi; Ramadhany, Ririn; Arai, Yasuha; Du, Anariwa; Boonsathorn, Naphatsawan; Ibrahim, Madiha S.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Influenza infection can elicit heterosubtypic antibodies to group 1 influenza virus. • Three human monoclonal antibodies were generated from an H1N1-infected patient. • The antibodies predominantly recognized α-helical stem of viral hemagglutinin (HA). • The antibodies inhibited HA structural activation during the fusion process. • The antibodies are potential candidates for future antibody therapy to influenza. - Abstract: Influenza viruses are a continuous threat to human public health because of their ability to evolve rapidly through genetic drift and reassortment. Three human monoclonal antibodies (HuMAbs) were generated in this study, 1H11, 2H5 and 5G2, and they cross-neutralize a diverse range of group 1 influenza A viruses, including seasonal H1N1, 2009 pandemic H1N1 (H1N1pdm) and avian H5N1 and H9N2. The three HuMAbs were prepared by fusing peripheral blood lymphocytes from an H1N1pdm-infected patient with a newly developed fusion partner cell line, SPYMEG. All the HuMAbs had little hemagglutination inhibition activity but had strong membrane-fusion inhibition activity against influenza viruses. A protease digestion assay showed the HuMAbs targeted commonly a short α-helix region in the stalk of the hemagglutinin. Furthermore, Ile45Phe and Glu47Gly double substitutions in the α-helix region made the HA unrecognizable by the HuMAbs. These two amino acid residues are highly conserved in the HAs of H1N1, H5N1 and H9N2 viruses. The HuMAbs reported here may be potential candidates for the development of therapeutic antibodies against group 1 influenza viruses

  8. Human monoclonal antibodies derived from a patient infected with 2009 pandemic influenza A virus broadly cross-neutralize group 1 influenza viruses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pan, Yang [Research Institute for Microbial Diseases, Osaka University, Suita, Osaka (Japan); Sasaki, Tadahiro [Research Institute for Microbial Diseases, Osaka University, Suita, Osaka (Japan); JST/JICA, Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development (SATREPS), Tokyo (Japan); Kubota-Koketsu, Ritsuko [Research Institute for Microbial Diseases, Osaka University, Suita, Osaka (Japan); Kanonji Institute, The Research Foundation for Microbial Diseases of Osaka University, Kanonji, Kagawa (Japan); JST/JICA, Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development (SATREPS), Tokyo (Japan); Inoue, Yuji [Research Institute for Microbial Diseases, Osaka University, Suita, Osaka (Japan); JST/JICA, Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development (SATREPS), Tokyo (Japan); Yasugi, Mayo [Research Institute for Microbial Diseases, Osaka University, Suita, Osaka (Japan); Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Osaka Prefecture University, Izumisano, Osaka (Japan); JST/JICA, Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development (SATREPS), Tokyo (Japan); Yamashita, Akifumi; Ramadhany, Ririn; Arai, Yasuha [Research Institute for Microbial Diseases, Osaka University, Suita, Osaka (Japan); Du, Anariwa [Research Institute for Microbial Diseases, Osaka University, Suita, Osaka (Japan); JST/JICA, Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development (SATREPS), Tokyo (Japan); Boonsathorn, Naphatsawan [Research Institute for Microbial Diseases, Osaka University, Suita, Osaka (Japan); Department of Medical Sciences, Ministry of Public Health, Muang, Nonthaburi (Thailand); JST/JICA, Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development (SATREPS), Tokyo (Japan); Ibrahim, Madiha S. [Research Institute for Microbial Diseases, Osaka University, Suita, Osaka (Japan); Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Damanhour University, Damanhour (Egypt); and others

    2014-07-18

    Highlights: • Influenza infection can elicit heterosubtypic antibodies to group 1 influenza virus. • Three human monoclonal antibodies were generated from an H1N1-infected patient. • The antibodies predominantly recognized α-helical stem of viral hemagglutinin (HA). • The antibodies inhibited HA structural activation during the fusion process. • The antibodies are potential candidates for future antibody therapy to influenza. - Abstract: Influenza viruses are a continuous threat to human public health because of their ability to evolve rapidly through genetic drift and reassortment. Three human monoclonal antibodies (HuMAbs) were generated in this study, 1H11, 2H5 and 5G2, and they cross-neutralize a diverse range of group 1 influenza A viruses, including seasonal H1N1, 2009 pandemic H1N1 (H1N1pdm) and avian H5N1 and H9N2. The three HuMAbs were prepared by fusing peripheral blood lymphocytes from an H1N1pdm-infected patient with a newly developed fusion partner cell line, SPYMEG. All the HuMAbs had little hemagglutination inhibition activity but had strong membrane-fusion inhibition activity against influenza viruses. A protease digestion assay showed the HuMAbs targeted commonly a short α-helix region in the stalk of the hemagglutinin. Furthermore, Ile45Phe and Glu47Gly double substitutions in the α-helix region made the HA unrecognizable by the HuMAbs. These two amino acid residues are highly conserved in the HAs of H1N1, H5N1 and H9N2 viruses. The HuMAbs reported here may be potential candidates for the development of therapeutic antibodies against group 1 influenza viruses.

  9. Post-pandemic assessment of public knowledge, behavior, and skill on influenza prevention among the general population of Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Li; Seale, Holly; Wu, Shuangsheng; Yang, Peng; Zheng, Yang; Ma, Chunna; MacIntyre, Raina; Wang, Quanyi

    2014-07-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the knowledge, behavioral, and skill responses toward influenza in the general population of Beijing after pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009. A cross-sectional study was conducted in Beijing, China, in January 2011. A survey was conducted in which information was collected using a standardized questionnaire. A comprehensive evaluation index system of health literacy related to influenza was built to evaluate the level of health literacy regarding influenza prevention and control among residents in Beijing. Thirteen thousand and fifty-three valid questionnaires were received. The average score for the sum of knowledge, behavior, and skill was 14.12±3.22, and the mean scores for knowledge, behavior, and skill were 4.65±1.20, 7.25±1.94, and 2.21±1.31, respectively. The qualified proportions of these three sections were 23.7%, 11.9%, and 43.4%, respectively, and the total proportion with a qualified level was 6.7%. There were significant differences in health literacy level related to influenza among the different gender, age, educational level, occupational status, and location groups (ppopulation in Beijing and the extent of relativities in knowledge, behavior, and skill about influenza was found to be weak. Therefore, improvements are needed in terms of certain aspects, particularly for the elderly and the population of rural districts. Educational level, as a significant factor in reducing the spread of influenza, should be considered seriously when intervention strategies are implemented. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  10. Enhanced surveillance of initial cases of pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza in Ireland, April-July 2009.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Martin, J

    2009-09-24

    From 28 April to 18 July 2009 there were 156 cases of pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza confirmed in Ireland. During this time, Ireland was in containment phase, and detailed case-based epidemiological information was gathered on all cases presenting in the community and acute health care setting. Active case finding was performed among contacts of cases. Eighty percent of cases were in people less than 35 years of age and 86% were imported. The most frequent symptoms were fever, sore throat, myalgia and dry cough. Nine people were hospitalized, no fatalities occurred.

  11. Genetic characterization of the influenza A pandemic (H1N1 2009 virus isolates from India.

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    Varsha A Potdar

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The Influenza A pandemic H1N1 2009 (H1N1pdm virus appeared in India in May 2009 and thereafter outbreaks with considerable morbidity and mortality have been reported from many parts of the country. Continuous monitoring of the genetic makeup of the virus is essential to understand its evolution within the country in relation to global diversification and to track the mutations that may affect the behavior of the virus. METHODS: H1N1pdm viruses were isolated from both recovered and fatal cases representing major cities and sequenced. Phylogenetic analyses of six concatenated whole genomes and the hemagglutinin (HA gene of seven more isolates from May-September 2009 was performed with reference to 685 whole genomes of global isolates available as of November 24, 2009. Molecular characterization of all the 8 segments was carried out for known pathogenic markers. RESULTS: The first isolate of May 2009 belonged to clade 5. Although clade 7 was the dominant H1N1pdm lineage in India, both clades 6 and 7 were found to be co-circulating. The neuraminidase of all the Indian isolates possessed H275, the marker for sensitivity to the neuraminidase inhibitor Oseltamivir. Some of the mutations in HA are at or in the vicinity of antigenic sites and may therefore be of possible antigenic significance. Among these a D222G mutation in the HA receptor binding domain was found in two of the eight Indian isolates obtained from fatal cases. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of the 13 Indian isolates grouped in the globally most widely circulating H1N1pdm clade 7. Further, correlations of the mutations specific to clade 7 Indian isolates to viral fitness and adaptability in the country remains to be understood. The D222G mutation in HA from isolates of fatal cases needs to be studied for pathogenicity.

  12. Serosurveillance for pandemic influenza A (H1N1 2009 virus infection in domestic elephants, Thailand.

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    Weena Paungpin

    Full Text Available The present study conducted serosurveillance for the presence of antibody to pandemic influenza A (H1N1 2009 virus (H1N1pdm virus in archival serum samples collected between 2009 and 2013 from 317 domestic elephants living in 19 provinces situated in various parts of Thailand. To obtain the most accurate data, hemagglutination-inhibition (HI assay was employed as the screening test; and sera with HI antibody titers ≥20 were further confirmed by other methods, including cytopathic effect/hemagglutination based-microneutralization (microNT and Western blot (WB assays using H1N1pdm matrix 1 (M1 or hemagglutinin (HA recombinant protein as the test antigen. Conclusively, the appropriate assays using HI in conjunction with WB assays for HA antibody revealed an overall seropositive rate of 8.5% (27 of 317. The prevalence of antibody to H1N1pdm virus was 2% (4/172 in 2009, 32% (17/53 in 2010, 9% (2/22 in 2011, 12% (1/8 in 2012, and 5% (3/62 in 2013. Notably, these positive serum samples were collected from elephants living in 7 tourist provinces of Thailand. The highest seropositive rate was obtained from elephants in Phuket, a popular tourist beach city. Young elephants had higher seropositive rate than older elephants. The source of H1N1pdm viral infection in these elephants was not explored, but most likely came from close contact with the infected mahouts or from the infected tourists who engaged in activities such as elephant riding and feeding. Nevertheless, it could not be excluded that elephant-to-elephant transmission did occur.

  13. The duty to care in an influenza pandemic: a qualitative study of Canadian public perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bensimon, Cécile M; Smith, Maxwell J; Pisartchik, Dmitri; Sahni, Sachin; Upshur, Ross E G

    2012-12-01

    Ever since the emergence of SARS, when we were reminded that the nature of health care practitioners' duty to care is greatly contested, it has remained a polarizing issue. Discussions on the nature and limits of health care practitioners' duty to care during disasters and public health emergencies abounds the literature, ripe with arguments seeking to ground its foundations. However, to date there has been little public engagement on this issue. This study involved three Townhall meetings held between February 2008 and May 2010 in three urban settings in Canada in order to probe lay citizens' views about ethical issues related to pandemic influenza, including issues surrounding the duty to care. Participants included Canadian residents aged 18 and over who were fluent in English. Data were collected through day-long facilitated group discussions using case scenarios and focus group guides. Participant's views were organized according to several themes, including the following main themes (and respective sub-themes): 1. Legitimate limits; a) competing obligations; and b) appeal to personal choice; and 2. Legitimate expectations; a) reciprocity; and b) enforcement and planning. Our findings show that participants moved away from categorical notions of the duty to care towards more equivocal and often normative views throughout deliberations. Our analysis contributes a better understanding of the constitutive nature of the duty to care, defined in part by taking account of public views. This broadened understanding can further inform the articulation of acceptable norms of duty to care and policy development efforts. What is more, it illustrates the urgent need for policy-makers and regulators to get clarity on obligations, responsibilities, and accountability in the execution of HCPs' duty to care during times of universal vulnerability. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Perception of the A/H1N1 influenza pandemic and acceptance of influenza vaccination by Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 staff: A descriptive study.

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    Amour, Sélilah; Djhehiche, Khaled; Zamora, Adeline; Bergeret, Alain; Vanhems, Philippe

    2015-01-01

    We assessed the perception and attitudes of university staff, including medical school and other science specialties, toward the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic and influenza vaccination program. A cross-sectional online survey was conducted among 4,529 university personnel on October 19-20, 2009. Seven hundred (15%) employees participated in the study. Only 18% were willing to be vaccinated, men more than women (29% versus 9%, P < 0.001), and professors/researchers more than administrative/technical staff (30% vs. 6%, P < 0.001). Intention to be vaccinated was insufficient. Additional efforts are needed to improve information dissemination among university staff. Medical university personnel should receive more information to increase vaccine coverage and protect them as well as patients.

  15. The impact that the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic had on news reporting in the state of Paraná, Brazil.

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    Maciel-Lima, Sandra Mara; Rasia, José Miguel; Bagatelli, Rodrigo Cechelero; Gontarski, Giseli; Colares, Máximo José D

    2015-01-01

    This study aims to analyze how influenza A (H1N1) in 2009 was reported in the state of Paraná. A total of 189 articles were analyzed in two newspapers from Paraná. Pursuant to analysis, four themes were identified: the spread of the virus; the pandemic and fear; influenza in the health service; and influenza in public policies. By studying how influenza A was reported in the media, it was possible to see the social impact that the H1N1 pandemic represented for society, presenting challenges for public institutions and ordinary citizens, who sensed that they were in a high-risk group exposed to a potentially lethal virus. This disease radically changed the habits of a globalized community seeking to escape from vulnerability.

  16. The impact that the influenza A (H1N1 pandemic had on news reporting in the state of Paraná, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Mara Maciel-Lima

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to analyze how influenza A (H1N1 in 2009 was reported in the state of Paraná. A total of 189 articles were analyzed in two newspapers from Paraná. Pursuant to analysis, four themes were identified: the spread of the virus; the pandemic and fear; influenza in the health service; and influenza in public policies. By studying how influenza A was reported in the media, it was possible to see the social impact that the H1N1 pandemic represented for society, presenting challenges for public institutions and ordinary citizens, who sensed that they were in a high-risk group exposed to a potentially lethal virus. This disease radically changed the habits of a globalized community seeking to escape from vulnerability.

  17. Seasonal influenza vaccine and protection against pandemic (H1N1 2009-associated illness among US military personnel.

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    Matthew C Johns

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: A novel A/H1N1 virus is the cause of the present influenza pandemic; vaccination is a key countermeasure, however, few data assessing prior seasonal vaccine effectiveness (VE against the pandemic strain of H1N1 (pH1N1 virus are available. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Surveillance of influenza-related medical encounter data of active duty military service members stationed in the United States during the period of April-October 2009 with comparison of pH1N1-confirmed cases and location and date-matched controls. Crude odds ratios (OR and VE estimates for immunized versus non-immunized were calculated as well as adjusted OR (AOR controlling for sex, age group, and history of prior influenza vaccination. Separate stratified VE analyses by vaccine type (trivalent inactivated [TIV] or live attenuated [LAIV], age groups and hospitalization status were also performed. For the period of April 20 to October 15, 2009, a total of 1,205 cases of pH1N1-confirmed cases were reported, 966 (80% among males and over one-half (58% under 25 years of age. Overall VE for service members was found to be 45% (95% CI, 33 to 55%. Immunization with prior season's TIV (VE = 44%, 95% CI, 32 to 54% as well as LAIV (VE = 24%, 95% CI, 6 to 38% were both found to be associated with protection. Of significance, VE against a severe disease outcome was higher (VE = 62%, 95% CI, 14 to 84% than against milder outcomes (VE = 42%, 95% CI, 29 to 53%. CONCLUSION: A moderate association with protection against clinically apparent, laboratory-confirmed Pandemic (H1N1 2009-associated illness was found for immunization with either TIV or LAIV 2008-09 seasonal influenza vaccines. This association with protection was found to be especially apparent for severe disease as compared to milder outcome, as well as in the youngest and older populations. Prior vaccination with seasonal influenza vaccines in 2004-08 was also independently associated with protection.

  18. A metagenomic analysis of pandemic influenza A (2009 H1N1 infection in patients from North America.

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    Alexander L Greninger

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Although metagenomics has been previously employed for pathogen discovery, its cost and complexity have prevented its use as a practical front-line diagnostic for unknown infectious diseases. Here we demonstrate the utility of two metagenomics-based strategies, a pan-viral microarray (Virochip and deep sequencing, for the identification and characterization of 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza A virus. Using nasopharyngeal swabs collected during the earliest stages of the pandemic in Mexico, Canada, and the United States (n = 17, the Virochip was able to detect a novel virus most closely related to swine influenza viruses without a priori information. Deep sequencing yielded reads corresponding to 2009 H1N1 influenza in each sample (percentage of aligned sequences corresponding to 2009 H1N1 ranging from 0.0011% to 10.9%, with up to 97% coverage of the influenza genome in one sample. Detection of 2009 H1N1 by deep sequencing was possible even at titers near the limits of detection for specific RT-PCR, and the percentage of sequence reads was linearly correlated with virus titer. Deep sequencing also provided insights into the upper respiratory microbiota and host gene expression in response to 2009 H1N1 infection. An unbiased analysis combining sequence data from all 17 outbreak samples revealed that 90% of the 2009 H1N1 genome could be assembled de novo without the use of any reference sequence, including assembly of several near full-length genomic segments. These results indicate that a streamlined metagenomics detection strategy can potentially replace the multiple conventional diagnostic tests required to investigate an outbreak of a novel pathogen, and provide a blueprint for comprehensive diagnosis of unexplained acute illnesses or outbreaks in clinical and public health settings.

  19. "Will they just pack up and leave?" – attitudes and intended behaviour of hospital health care workers during an influenza pandemic

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    Po Kieren

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is a general consensus that another influenza pandemic is inevitable. Although health care workers (HCWs are essential to the health system response, there are few studies exploring HCW attitudes to pandemic influenza. The aim of this study was to explore HCWs knowledge, attitudes and intended behaviour towards pandemic influenza. Methods Cross-sectional investigation of a convenience sample of clinical and non-clinical HCWs from two tertiary-referral teaching hospitals in Sydney, Australia was conducted between June 4 and October 19, 2007. The self-administered questionnaire was distributed to hospital personal from 40 different wards and departments. The main outcome measures were intentions regarding work attendance and quarantine, antiviral use and perceived preparation. Results Respondents were categorized into four main groups by occupation: Nursing (47.5%, Medical (26.0%, Allied (15.3% and Ancillary (11.2%. Our study found that most HCWs perceived pandemic influenza to be very serious (80.9%, n = 873 but less than half were able to correctly define it (43.9%, n = 473. Only 24.8% of respondents believed their department to be prepared for a pandemic, but nonetheless most were willing to work during a pandemic if a patient or colleague had influenza. The main determinants of variation in our study were occupational factors, demographics and health beliefs. Non-clinical staff were significantly most likely to be unsure of their intentions (OR 1.43, p Conclusion We identified two issues that could undermine the best of pandemic plans – the first, a low level of confidence in antivirals as an effective measure; secondly, that non-clinical workers are an overlooked group whose lack of knowledge and awareness could undermine pandemic plans. Other issues included a high level of confidence in dietary measures to protect against influenza, and a belief among ancillary workers that antibiotics would be protective. All

  20. Pandemic influenza A (H1N1 2009: epidemiological analysis of cases in a tropical/semi-arid region of Brazil

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    Roberto da Justa Pires Neto

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction The year 2009 marked the beginning of a pandemic caused by a new variant of influenza A (H1N1. After spreading through North America, the pandemic influenza virus (H1N1 2009 spread rapidly throughout the world. The aim of this study was to describe the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of cases of pandemic influenza in a tropical/semi-arid region of Brazil. Methods A retrospective study analyzed all suspected cases of pandemic influenza (H1N1 2009 reported in the Ceará State through the National Information System for Notifiable Diseases during the pandemic period between 28 April, 2009 and November 25, 2010. Results A total of 616 suspected cases were notified, 58 (9.4% in the containment phase and 558 (90.6% in the mitigation phase. Most cases were of affected young people resident in the City of Fortaleza, the largest urban center in the State of Ceará. The most frequent symptoms presented by the cases with confirmed infection were fever, cough, myalgia, arthralgia, and nasal congestion. Mortality rate was 0.0009/1,000 inhabitants and lethality was 5.6%. Deaths were observed only in the mitigation phase. Mortality rates were similar for both sexes but were higher in the age group under 5 years. Conclusions The study suggests that the influenza A (H1N1 pandemic in this tropical/semi-arid region had a lower magnitude when compared to states in the Southern and Southeastern regions of Brazil.

  1. The timing and targeting of treatment in influenza pandemics influences the emergence of resistance in structured populations.

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    Althouse, Benjamin M; Patterson-Lomba, Oscar; Goerg, Georg M; Hébert-Dufresne, Laurent

    2013-01-01

    Antiviral resistance in influenza is rampant and has the possibility of causing major morbidity and mortality. Previous models have identified treatment regimes to minimize total infections and keep resistance low. However, the bulk of these studies have ignored stochasticity and heterogeneous contact structures. Here we develop a network model of influenza transmission with treatment and resistance, and present both standard mean-field approximations as well as simulated dynamics. We find differences in the final epidemic sizes for identical transmission parameters (bistability) leading to different optimal treatment timing depending on the number initially infected. We also find, contrary to previous results, that treatment targeted by number of contacts per individual (node degree) gives rise to more resistance at lower levels of treatment than non-targeted treatment. Finally we highlight important differences between the two methods of analysis (mean-field versus stochastic simulations), and show where traditional mean-field approximations fail. Our results have important implications not only for the timing and distribution of influenza chemotherapy, but also for mathematical epidemiological modeling in general. Antiviral resistance in influenza may carry large consequences for pandemic mitigation efforts, and models ignoring contact heterogeneity and stochasticity may provide misleading policy recommendations.

  2. Structure, Receptor Binding, and Antigenicity of Influenza Virus Hemagglutinins from the 1957 H2N2 Pandemic

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    Xu, Rui; McBride, Ryan; Paulson, James C.; Basler, Christopher F.; Wilson, Ian A. (Sinai); (Scripps)

    2010-03-04

    The hemagglutinin (HA) envelope protein of influenza viruses mediates essential viral functions, including receptor binding and membrane fusion, and is the major viral antigen for antibody neutralization. The 1957 H2N2 subtype (Asian flu) was one of the three great influenza pandemics of the last century and caused 1 million deaths globally from 1957 to 1968. Three crystal structures of 1957 H2 HAs have been determined at 1.60 to 1.75 {angstrom} resolutions to investigate the structural basis for their antigenicity and evolution from avian to human binding specificity that contributed to its introduction into the human population. These structures, which represent the highest resolutions yet recorded for a complete ectodomain of a glycosylated viral surface antigen, along with the results of glycan microarray binding analysis, suggest that a hydrophobicity switch at residue 226 and elongation of receptor-binding sites were both critical for avian H2 HA to acquire human receptor specificity. H2 influenza viruses continue to circulate in birds and pigs and, therefore, remain a substantial threat for transmission to humans. The H2 HA structure also reveals a highly conserved epitope that could be harnessed in the design of a broader and more universal influenza A virus vaccine.

  3. Pandemic influenza A viruses escape from restriction by human MxA through adaptive mutations in the nucleoprotein.

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    Benjamin Mänz

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The interferon-induced dynamin-like MxA GTPase restricts the replication of influenza A viruses. We identified adaptive mutations in the nucleoprotein (NP of pandemic strains A/Brevig Mission/1/1918 (1918 and A/Hamburg/4/2009 (pH1N1 that confer MxA resistance. These resistance-associated amino acids in NP differ between the two strains but form a similar discrete surface-exposed cluster in the body domain of NP, indicating that MxA resistance evolved independently. The 1918 cluster was conserved in all descendent strains of seasonal influenza viruses. Introduction of this cluster into the NP of the MxA-sensitive influenza virus A/Thailand/1(KAN-1/04 (H5N1 resulted in a gain of MxA resistance coupled with a decrease in viral replication fitness. Conversely, introduction of MxA-sensitive amino acids into pH1N1 NP enhanced viral growth in Mx-negative cells. We conclude that human MxA represents a barrier against zoonotic introduction of avian influenza viruses and that adaptive mutations in the viral NP should be carefully monitored.

  4. Pandemic A/H1N1v influenza 2009 in hospitalized children: a multicenter Belgian survey

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    Blumental Sophie

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background During the 2009 influenza A/H1N1v pandemic, children were identified as a specific "at risk" group. We conducted a multicentric study to describe pattern of influenza A/H1N1v infection among hospitalized children in Brussels, Belgium. Methods From July 1, 2009, to January 31, 2010, we collected epidemiological and clinical data of all proven (positive H1N1v PCR and probable (positive influenza A antigen or culture pediatric cases of influenza A/H1N1v infections, hospitalized in four tertiary centers. Results During the epidemic period, an excess of 18% of pediatric outpatients and emergency department visits was registered. 215 children were hospitalized with proven/probable influenza A/H1N1v infection. Median age was 31 months. 47% had ≥ 1 comorbid conditions. Febrile respiratory illness was the most common presentation. 36% presented with initial gastrointestinal symptoms and 10% with neurological manifestations. 34% had pneumonia. Only 24% of the patients received oseltamivir but 57% received antibiotics. 10% of children were admitted to PICU, seven of whom with ARDS. Case fatality-rate was 5/215 (2%, concerning only children suffering from chronic neurological disorders. Children over 2 years of age showed a higher propensity to be admitted to PICU (16% vs 1%, p = 0.002 and a higher mortality rate (4% vs 0%, p = 0.06. Infants less than 3 months old showed a milder course of infection, with few respiratory and neurological complications. Conclusion Although influenza A/H1N1v infections were generally self-limited, pediatric burden of disease was significant. Compared to other countries experiencing different health care systems, our Belgian cohort was younger and received less frequently antiviral therapy; disease course and mortality were however similar.

  5. Comprehensive global amino acid sequence analysis of PB1F2 protein of influenza A H5N1 viruses and the influenza A virus subtypes responsible for the 20th‐century pandemics

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    Pasricha, Gunisha; Mishra, Akhilesh C.; Chakrabarti, Alok K.

    2012-01-01

    Please cite this paper as: Pasricha et al. (2012) Comprehensive global amino acid sequence analysis of PB1F2 protein of influenza A H5N1 viruses and the Influenza A virus subtypes responsible for the 20th‐century pandemics. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 7(4), 497–505. Background  PB1F2 is the 11th protein of influenza A virus translated from +1 alternate reading frame of PB1 gene. Since the discovery, varying sizes and functions of the PB1F2 protein of influenza A viruses have been reported. Selection of PB1 gene segment in the pandemics, variable size and pleiotropic effect of PB1F2 intrigued us to analyze amino acid sequences of this protein in various influenza A viruses. Methods  Amino acid sequences for PB1F2 protein of influenza A H5N1, H1N1, H2N2, and H3N2 subtypes were obtained from Influenza Research Database. Multiple sequence alignments of the PB1F2 protein sequences of the aforementioned subtypes were used to determine the size, variable and conserved domains and to perform mutational analysis. Results  Analysis showed that 96·4% of the H5N1 influenza viruses harbored full‐length PB1F2 protein. Except for the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus, all the subtypes of the 20th‐century pandemic influenza viruses contained full‐length PB1F2 protein. Through the years, PB1F2 protein of the H1N1 and H3N2 viruses has undergone much variation. PB1F2 protein sequences of H5N1 viruses showed both human‐ and avian host‐specific conserved domains. Global database of PB1F2 protein revealed that N66S mutation was present only in 3·8% of the H5N1 strains. We found a novel mutation, N84S in the PB1F2 protein of 9·35% of the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 influenza viruses. Conclusions  Varying sizes and mutations of the PB1F2 protein in different influenza A virus subtypes with pandemic potential were obtained. There was genetic divergence of the protein in various hosts which highlighted the host‐specific evolution of the virus

  6. How integration of global omics-data could help preparing for pandemics - a scent of influenza

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    Bos, Lieuwe D. J.; de Jong, Menno D.; Sterk, Peter J.; Schultz, Marcus J.

    2014-01-01

    Pandemics caused by novel emerging or re-emerging infectious diseases could lead to high mortality and morbidity world-wide when left uncontrolled. In this perspective, we evaluate the possibility of integration of global omics-data in order to timely prepare for pandemics. Such an approach requires

  7. Transmission dynamics of pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus in humans and swine in backyard farms in Tumbes, Peru.

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    Tinoco, Yeny O; Montgomery, Joel M; Kasper, Mathew R; Nelson, Martha I; Razuri, Hugo; Guezala, Maria C; Azziz-Baumgartner, Eduardo; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; Barnes, John; Gilman, Robert H; Bausch, Daniel G; Gonzalez, Armando E

    2016-01-01

    We aimed to determine the frequency of pH1N1 transmission between humans and swine on backyard farms in Tumbes, Peru. Two-year serial cross-sectional study comprising four sampling periods: March 2009 (pre-pandemic), October 2009 (peak of the pandemic in Peru), April 2010 (1st post-pandemic period), and October 2011 (2nd post-pandemic period). Backyard swine serum, tracheal swabs, and lung sample were collected during each sampling period. We assessed current and past pH1N1 infection in swine through serological testing, virus culture, and RT-PCR and compared the results with human incidence data from a population-based active surveillance cohort study in Peru. Among 1303 swine sampled, the antibody prevalence to pH1N1 was 0% pre-pandemic, 8% at the peak of the human pandemic (October 2009), and 24% in April 2010 and 1% in October 2011 (post-pandemic sampling periods). Trends in swine seropositivity paralleled those seen in humans in Tumbes. The pH1N1 virus was isolated from three pigs during the peak of the pandemic. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that these viruses likely represent two separate human-to-swine transmission events in backyard farm settings. Our findings suggest that human-to-swine pH1N1 transmission occurred during the pandemic among backyard farms in Peru, emphasizing the importance of interspecies transmission in backyard pig populations. Continued surveillance for influenza viruses in backyard farms is warranted. © 2015 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Experimental infection with H1N1 European swine influenza virus protects pigs from an infection with the 2009 pandemic H1N1 human influenza virus.

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    Busquets, Núria; Segalés, Joaquim; Córdoba, Lorena; Mussá, Tufaria; Crisci, Elisa; Martín-Valls, Gerard E; Simon-Grifé, Meritxell; Pérez-Simó, Marta; Pérez-Maíllo, Monica; Núñez, Jose I; Abad, Francesc X; Fraile, Lorenzo; Pina, Sonia; Majó, Natalia; Bensaid, Albert; Domingo, Mariano; Montoya, María

    2010-01-01

    The recent pandemic caused by human influenza virus A(H1N1) 2009 contains ancestral gene segments from North American and Eurasian swine lineages as well as from avian and human influenza lineages. The emergence of this A(H1N1) 2009 poses a potential global threat for human health and the fact that it can infect other species, like pigs, favours a possible encounter with other influenza viruses circulating in swine herds. In Europe, H1N1, H1N2 and H3N2 subtypes of swine influenza virus currently have a high prevalence in commercial farms. To better assess the risk posed by the A(H1N1) 2009 in the actual situation of swine farms, we sought to analyze whether a previous infection with a circulating European avian-like swine A/Swine/Spain/53207/2004 (H1N1) influenza virus (hereafter referred to as SwH1N1) generated or not cross-protective immunity against a subsequent infection with the new human pandemic A/Catalonia/63/2009 (H1N1) influenza virus (hereafter referred to as pH1N1) 21 days apart. Pigs infected only with pH1N1 had mild to moderate pathological findings, consisting on broncho-interstitial pneumonia. However, pigs inoculated with SwH1N1 virus and subsequently infected with pH1N1 had very mild lung lesions, apparently attributed to the remaining lesions caused by SwH1N1 infection. These later pigs also exhibited boosted levels of specific antibodies. Finally, animals firstly infected with SwH1N1 virus and latter infected with pH1N1 exhibited undetectable viral RNA load in nasal swabs and lungs after challenge with pH1N1, indicating a cross-protective effect between both strains. © INRA, EDP Sciences, 2010.

  9. Identification of swine H1N2/pandemic H1N1 reassortant influenza virus in pigs, United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Ahmed; Khatri, Mahesh; Wang, Leyi; Saif, Yehia M; Lee, Chang-Won

    2012-07-06

    In October and November 2010, novel H1N2 reassortant influenza viruses were identified from pigs showing mild respiratory signs that included cough and depression. Sequence and phylogenetic analysis showed that the novel H1N2 reassortants possesses HA and NA genes derived from recent H1N2 swine isolates similar to those isolated from Midwest. Compared to the majority of reported reassortants, both viruses preserved human-like host restrictive and putative antigenic sites in their HA and NA genes. The four internal genes, PB2, PB1, PA, and NS were similar to the contemporary swine triple reassortant viruses' internal genes (TRIG). Interestingly, NP and M genes of the novel reassortants were derived from the 2009 pandemic H1N1. The NP and M proteins of the two isolates demonstrated one (E16G) and four (G34A, D53E, I109T, and V313I) amino acid changes in the M2 and NP proteins, respectively. Similar amino acid changes were also noticed upon incorporation of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 NP in other reassortant viruses reported in the U.S. Thus the role of those amino acids in relation to host adaptation need to be further investigated. The reassortments of pandemic H1N1 with swine influenza viruses and the potential of interspecies transmission of these reassortants from swine to other species including human indicate the importance of systematic surveillance of swine population to determine the origin, the prevalence of similar reassortants in the U.S. and their impact on both swine production and public health. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Interest of a simple on-line screening registry for measuring ICU burden related to an influenza pandemic.

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    Richard, Jean-Christophe Marie; Pham, Tài; Brun-Buisson, Christian; Reignier, Jean; Mercat, Alain; Beduneau, Gaëtan; Régnier, Bernard; Mourvillier, Bruno; Guitton, Christophe; Castanier, Matthias; Combes, Alain; Le Tulzo, Yves; Brochard, Laurent

    2012-07-09

    The specific burden imposed on Intensive Care Units (ICUs) during the A/H1N1 influenza 2009 pandemic has been poorly explored. An on-line screening registry allowed a daily report of ICU beds occupancy rate by flu infected patients (Flu-OR) admitted in French ICUs. We conducted a prospective inception cohort study with results of an on-line screening registry designed for daily assessment of ICU burden. Among the 108 centers participating to the French H1N1 research network on mechanical ventilation (REVA) - French Society of Intensive Care (SRLF) registry, 69 ICUs belonging to seven large geographical areas voluntarily participated in a website screening-registry. The aim was to daily assess the ICU beds occupancy rate by influenza-infected and non-infected patients for at least three weeks. Three hundred ninety-one critically ill infected patients were enrolled in the cohort, representing a subset of 35% of the whole French 2009 pandemic cohort; 73% were mechanically ventilated, 13% required extra corporal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) and 22% died. The global Flu-OR in these ICUs was only 7.6%, but it exceeded a predefined 15% critical threshold in 32 ICUs for a total of 103 weeks. Flu-ORs were significantly higher in University than in non-University hospitals. The peak ICU burden was poorly predicted by observations obtained at the level of large geographical areas. The peak Flu-OR during the pandemic significantly exceeded a 15% critical threshold in almost half of the ICUs, with an uneven distribution with time, geographical areas and between University and non-University hospitals. An on-line assessment of Flu-OR via a simple dedicated registry may contribute to better match resources and needs.

  11. Managing boundaries between professional and lay nursing following the influenza pandemic, 1918-1919: insights for professional resilience today?

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    Wood, Pamela J

    2017-03-01

    To examine lay-professional nursing boundaries, using challenges to the New Zealand nursing profession following the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic as the example. The influenza pandemic of 1918-1919 had an overwhelming international impact on communities and the nursing profession. After the pandemic, the expectation for communities to be able to nurse the sick reflects today's increasing reliance on families to care for people at home. It similarly raised questions about the profession's role and professional boundaries in relation to volunteer or lay nursing. In New Zealand, the postpandemic challenge to build community lay nursing capacity tested these boundaries. Historical research. Analysis of historical primary sources of official reports, newspaper accounts, articles in New Zealand's professional nursing journal Kai Tiaki and the memoir of Hester Maclean, the country's chief nurse. Interpretation of findings in relation to secondary sources examining similar historical tensions between professional and lay nursing, and to the more recent notion of professional resilience. Maclean guarded nursing's professional boundaries by maintaining considerable control over community instruction in nursing and by strenuously resisting the suggestion that this should be done in hospitals where professional nurses trained. This historical example shows how the nursing profession faced the perceived threat to its professional boundaries. It also shows how competing goals of building community lay nursing capacity and protecting professional boundaries can be effectively managed. In the context of a global nursing shortage, limited healthcare budgets and a consequently increasing reliance on households to provide care for family members, this historical research shows nurses today that similar issues have been faced and effectively managed in the past. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Comparative analyses of pandemic H1N1 and seasonal H1N1, H3N2, and influenza B infections depict distinct clinical pictures in ferrets.

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    Stephen S H Huang

    Full Text Available Influenza A and B infections are a worldwide health concern to both humans and animals. High genetic evolution rates of the influenza virus allow the constant emergence of new strains and cause illness variation. Since human influenza infections are often complicated by secondary factors such as age and underlying medical conditions, strain or subtype specific clinical features are difficult to assess. Here we infected ferrets with 13 currently circulating influenza strains (including strains of pandemic 2009 H1N1 [H1N1pdm] and seasonal A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and B viruses. The clinical parameters were measured daily for 14 days in stable environmental conditions to compare clinical characteristics. We found that H1N1pdm strains had a more severe physiological impact than all season strains where pandemic A/California/07/2009 was the most clinically pathogenic pandemic strain. The most serious illness among seasonal A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 groups was caused by A/Solomon Islands/03/2006 and A/Perth/16/2009, respectively. Among the 13 studied strains, B/Hubei-Wujiagang/158/2009 presented the mildest clinical symptoms. We have also discovered that disease severity (by clinical illness and histopathology correlated with influenza specific antibody response but not viral replication in the upper respiratory tract. H1N1pdm induced the highest and most rapid antibody response followed by seasonal A/H3N2, seasonal A/H1N1 and seasonal influenza B (with B/Hubei-Wujiagang/158/2009 inducing the weakest response. Our study is the first to compare the clinical features of multiple circulating influenza strains in ferrets. These findings will help to characterize the clinical pictures of specific influenza strains as well as give insights into the development and administration of appropriate influenza therapeutics.

  13. Guillain-Barré syndrome and adjuvanted pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 vaccine: Multinational case-control study in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.P. Dieleman (Jeanne); S. Romio (Silvana); K. Johansen (Kari); D.M. Weibel (Daniel); J. Bonhoeffer (Jan); M.C.J.M. Sturkenboom (Miriam)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractObjective: To assess the association between pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 vaccine and Guillain-Barré syndrome. Design: Case-control study. Setting: Five European countries. Participants: 104 patients with Guillain-Barré syndrome and its variant Miller-Fisher syndrome matched to one

  14. Duration of (18)F-FDG avidity in lymph nodes after pandemic H1N1v and seasonal influenza vaccination

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomassen, Anders; Lerberg Nielsen, Anne; Gerke, Oke

    2011-01-01

    PURPOSE: The aim of our study was to investigate the occurrence of fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) avidity in draining axillary lymph nodes after vaccination against influenza (H1N1v pandemic and seasonal) and to determine the period of increased FDG uptake. METHODS: During December 2009, patients...

  15. The avian-origin PB1 gene segment facilitated replication and transmissibility of the H3N2/1968 pandemic influenza virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wendel, Isabel; Rubbenstroth, Dennis; Doedt, Jennifer; Kochs, Georg; Wilhelm, Jochen; Staeheli, Peter; Klenk, Hans-Dieter; Matrosovich, Mikhail

    2015-04-01

    The H2N2/1957 and H3N2/1968 pandemic influenza viruses emerged via the exchange of genomic RNA segments between human and avian viruses. The avian hemagglutinin (HA) allowed the hybrid viruses to escape preexisting immunity in the human population. Both pandemic viruses further received the PB1 gene segment from the avian parent (Y. Kawaoka, S. Krauss, and R. G. Webster, J Virol 63:4603-4608, 1989), but the biological significance of this observation was not understood. To assess whether the avian-origin PB1 segment provided pandemic viruses with some selective advantage, either on its own or via cooperation with the homologous HA segment, we modeled by reverse genetics the reassortment event that led to the emergence of the H3N2/1968 pandemic virus. Using seasonal H2N2 virus A/California/1/66 (Cal) as a surrogate precursor human virus and pandemic virus A/Hong Kong/1/68 (H3N2) (HK) as a source of avian-derived PB1 and HA gene segments, we generated four reassortant recombinant viruses and compared pairs of viruses which differed solely by the origin of PB1. Replacement of the PB1 segment of Cal by PB1 of HK facilitated viral polymerase activity, replication efficiency in human cells, and contact transmission in guinea pigs. A combination of PB1 and HA segments of HK did not enhance replicative fitness of the reassortant virus compared with the single-gene PB1 reassortant. Our data suggest that the avian PB1 segment of the 1968 pandemic virus served to enhance viral growth and transmissibility, likely by enhancing activity of the viral polymerase complex. Despite the high impact of influenza pandemics on human health, some mechanisms underlying the emergence of pandemic influenza viruses still are poorly understood. Thus, it was unclear why both H2N2/1957 and H3N2/1968 reassortant pandemic viruses contained, in addition to the avian HA, the PB1 gene segment of the avian parent. Here, we addressed this long-standing question by modeling the emergence of the H3N2

  16. Avian Influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeitlin, Gary Adam; Maslow, Melanie Jane

    2005-05-01

    The current epidemic of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza in Southeast Asia raises serious concerns that genetic reassortment will result in the next influenza pandemic. There have been 164 confirmed cases of human infection with avian influenza since 1996. In 2004, there were 45 cases of human H5N1 in Vietnam and Thailand, with a mortality rate more than 70%. In addition to the potential public health hazard, the current zoonotic epidemic has caused severe economic losses. Efforts must be concentrated on early detection of bird outbreaks with aggressive culling, quarantining, and disinfection. To prepare for and prevent an increase in human cases, it is essential to improve detection methods and stockpile effective antivirals. Novel therapeutic modalities, including short-interfering RNAs and new vaccine strategies that use plasmid-based genetic systems, offer promise should a pandemic occur.

  17. The need for strengthening the influenza virus detection ability of hospital clinical laboratories: an investigation of the 2009 pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Shigui; Zhou, Yuqing; Cui, Yuanxia; Ding, Cheng; Wu, Jie; Deng, Min; Wang, Chencheng; Lu, Xiaoqing; Chen, Xiaoxiao; Li, Yiping; Shi, Dongyan; Mi, Fenfang; Li, Lanjuan

    2017-03-01

    Most hospital clinical laboratories (HCLs) in China are unable to perform influenza virus detection. It remains unclear whether the influenza detection ability of HCLs influences the early identification and mortality rate of influenza. A total of 739 hospitalized patients with 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus treated at 65 hospitals between May and December, 2009, in Zhejiang, China, were included based on identifications by HCLs and by public health laboratories (PHLs) of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Of the patients, 407 (55.1%) were male, 17 died, resulting in an in-hospital mortality rate of 2.3%, and 297 patients were identified by HCLs and 442 by PHLs. The results indicated that a 24-hour delay in identification led to a 13% increase in the odds of death (OR = 1.13, P hospital mortality rate of the HCL group was significantly lower than that of the PHL group (1.0% vs. 3.2%, P hospital mortality rate by 68.8%. HCL-based influenza virus detection facilitated early identification and reduced influenza mortality, and influenza detection ability of HCLs should be strengthened.

  18. Genetic diversity among pandemic 2009 influenza viruses isolated from a transmission chain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fordyce, Sarah Louise; Bragstad, Karoline; Pedersen, Svend Stenvang

    2013-01-01

    Influenza viruses such as swine-origin influenza A(H1N1) virus (A(H1N1)pdm09) generate genetic diversity due to the high error rate of their RNA polymerase, often resulting in mixed genotype populations (intra-host variants) within a single infection. This variation helps influenza to rapidly res...

  19. The impact of the unstructured contacts component in influenza pandemic modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Ajelli

    Full Text Available Individual based models have become a valuable tool for modeling the spatiotemporal dynamics of epidemics, e.g. influenza pandemic, and for evaluating the effectiveness of intervention strategies. While specific contacts among individuals into diverse environments (family, school/workplace can be modeled in a standard way by employing available socio-demographic data, all the other (unstructured contacts can be dealt with by adopting very different approaches. This can be achieved for instance by employing distance-based models or by choosing unstructured contacts in the local communities or by employing commuting data.Here we show how diverse choices can lead to different model outputs and thus to a different evaluation of the effectiveness of the containment/mitigation strategies. Sensitivity analysis has been conducted for different values of the first generation index G(0, which is the average number of secondary infections generated by the first infectious individual in a completely susceptible population and by varying the seeding municipality. Among the different considered models, attack rate ranges from 19.1% to 25.7% for G(0 = 1.1, from 47.8% to 50.7% for G(0 = 1.4 and from 62.4% to 67.8% for G(0 = 1.7. Differences of about 15 to 20 days in the peak day have been observed. As regards spatial diffusion, a difference of about 100 days to cover 200 km for different values of G(0 has been observed.To reduce uncertainty in the models it is thus important to employ data, which start being available, on contacts on neglected but important activities (leisure time, sport mall, restaurants, etc. and time-use data for improving the characterization of the unstructured contacts. Moreover, all the possible effects of different assumptions should be considered for taking public health decisions: not only sensitivity analysis to various model parameters should be performed, but intervention options should be based on the analysis and

  20. 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1 virus outbreak and response--Rwanda, October, 2009-May, 2010.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin Wane

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In October 2009, the first case of pandemic influenza A(H1N1pdm09 (pH1N1 was confirmed in Kigali, Rwanda and countrywide dissemination occurred within several weeks. We describe clinical and epidemiological characteristics of this epidemic. METHODS: From October 2009 through May 2010, we undertook epidemiologic investigations and response to pH1N1. Respiratory specimens were collected from all patients meeting the WHO case definition for pH1N1, which were tested using CDC's real time RT-PCR protocol at the Rwandan National Reference Laboratory (NRL. Following documented viral transmission in the community, testing focused on clinically severe and high-risk group suspect cases. RESULTS: From October 9, 2009 through May 31, 2010, NRL tested 2,045 specimens. In total, 26% (n = 532 of specimens tested influenza positive; of these 96% (n = 510 were influenza A and 4% (n = 22 were influenza B. Of cases testing influenza A positive, 96.8% (n = 494, 3% (n = 15, and 0.2% (n = 1 were A(H1N1pdm09, Seasonal A(H3 and Seasonal A(non-subtyped, respectively. Among laboratory-confirmed cases, 263 (53.2% were children <15 years and 275 (52% were female. In total, 58 (12% cases were hospitalized with mean duration of hospitalization of 5 days (Range: 2-15 days. All cases recovered and there were no deaths. Overall, 339 (68% confirmed cases received oseltamivir in any setting. Among all positive cases, 26.9% (143/532 were among groups known to be at high risk of influenza-associated complications, including age <5 years 23% (122/532, asthma 0.8% (4/532, cardiac disease 1.5% (8/532, pregnancy 0.6% (3/532, diabetes mellitus 0.4% (2/532, and chronic malnutrition 0.8% (4/532. CONCLUSIONS: Rwanda experienced a PH1N1 outbreak which was epidemiologically similar to PH1N1 outbreaks in the region. Unlike seasonal influenza, children <15 years were the most affected by pH1N1. Lessons learned from the outbreak response included the need to