WorldWideScience

Sample records for early earthquake predictions

  1. Predictable earthquakes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martini, D.

    2002-12-01

    acceleration) and global number of earthquake for this period from published literature which give us a great picture about the dynamical geophysical phenomena. Methodology: The computing of linear correlation coefficients gives us a chance to quantitatively characterise the relation among the data series, if we suppose a linear dependence in the first step. The correlation coefficients among the Earth's rotational acceleration and Z-orbit acceleration (perpendicular to the ecliptic plane) and the global number of the earthquakes were compared. The results clearly demonstrate the common feature of both the Earth's rotation and Earth's Z-acceleration around the Sun and also between the Earth's rotational acceleration and the earthquake number. This fact might means a strong relation among these phenomena. The mentioned rather strong correlation (r = 0.75) and the 29 year period (Saturn's synodic period) was clearly shown in the counted cross correlation function, which gives the dynamical characteristic of correlation, of Earth's orbital- (Z-direction) and rotational acceleration. This basic period (29 year) was also obvious in the earthquake number data sets with clear common features in time. Conclusion: The Core, which involves the secular variation of the Earth's magnetic field, is the only sufficiently mobile part of the Earth with a sufficient mass to modify the rotation which probably effects on the global time distribution of the earthquakes. Therefore it might means that the secular variation of the earthquakes is inseparable from the changes in Earth's magnetic field, i.e. the interior process of the Earth's core belongs to the dynamical state of the solar system. Therefore if the described idea is real the global distribution of the earthquakes in time is predictable.

  2. Predicting the macroseismic intensity from early radiated P wave energy for on-site earthquake early warning in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brondi, P.; Picozzi, M.; Emolo, A.; Zollo, A.; Mucciarelli, M.

    2015-10-01

    Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) are potentially effective tools for risk mitigation in active seismic regions. The present study explores the possibility of predicting the macroseismic intensity within EEW timeframes using the squared velocity integral (IV2) measured on the early P wave signals, a proxy for the P wave radiated energy of earthquakes. This study shows that IV2 correlates better than the peak displacement measured on P waves with both the peak ground velocity and the Housner Intensity, with the latter being recognized by engineers as a reliable proxy for damage assessment. Therefore, using the strong motion recordings of the Italian Accelerometric Archive, a novel relationship between the parameter IV2 and the macroseismic intensity (IM) has been derived. The validity of this relationship has been assessed using the strong motion recordings of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Strong Motion Data and Osservatorio Sismico delle Strutture databases, as well as, in the case of the MW 6, 29 May 2012 Emilia earthquake (Italy), comparing the predicted intensities with the ones observed after a macroseismic survey. Our results indicate that P wave IV2 can become a key parameter for the design of on-site EEWS, capable of proving real-time predictions of the IM at target sites.

  3. Discussion on Earthquake Forecasting and Early Warning

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Xiaodong; Jiang Haikun; Li Mingxiao

    2008-01-01

    Through analysis of natural and social attributes of earthquake forecasting,the relationship between the natural and social attributes of earthquake forecasting (early warning) has been discussed.Regarding the natural attributes of earthquake forecasting,it only attempts to forecast the magnitude,location and occurrence time of future earthquake based on the aualysis of observational data and relevant theories and taking into consideration the present understanding of seismogeny and earthquake generation.It need not consider the consequences an earthquake forecast involves,and its purpose is to check out the level of scientific understanding of earthquakes.In respect of the social aspect of earthquake forecasting,people also focus on the consequence that the forecasting involves,in addition to its natural aspect,such as the uncertainty of earthquake prediction itself,the impact of earthquake prediction,and the earthquake resistant capability of structures (buildings),lifeline works,etc.In a word,it highlights the risk of earthquake forecasting and tries to mitigate the earthquake hazard as much as possible.In this paper,the authors also discuss the scientific and social challenges faced in earthquake prediction and analyze preliminarily the meanings and content of earthquake early warning.

  4. Automatic earthquake confirmation for early warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuyuk, H. S.; Colombelli, S.; Zollo, A.; Allen, R. M.; Erdik, M. O.

    2015-07-01

    Earthquake early warning studies are shifting real-time seismology in earthquake science. They provide methods to rapidly assess earthquakes to predict damaging ground shaking. Preventing false alarms from these systems is key. Here we developed a simple, robust algorithm, Authorizing GRound shaking for Earthquake Early warning Systems (AGREEs), to reduce falsely issued alarms. This is a network threshold-based algorithm, which differs from existing approaches based on apparent velocity of P and S waves. AGREEs is designed to function as an external module to support existing earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs) and filters out the false events, by evaluating actual shaking near the epicenter. Our retrospective analyses of the 2009 L'Aquila and 2012 Emilia earthquakes show that AGREEs could help an EEWS by confirming the epicentral intensity. Furthermore, AGREEs is able to effectively identify three false events due to a storm, a teleseismic earthquake, and broken sensors in Irpinia Seismic Network, Italy.

  5. Numerical Shake Prediction for Earthquake Early Warning: More Precise and Rapid Prediction even for Deviated Distribution of Ground Shaking of M6-class Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoshiba, M.; Ogiso, M.

    2015-12-01

    In many methods of the present EEW systems, hypocenter and magnitude are determined quickly, and then the strengths of ground motions are predicted using the hypocentral distance and magnitude based on a ground motion prediction equation (GMPE), which usually leads the prediction of concentric distribution. However, actual ground shaking is not always concentric, even when site amplification is corrected. At a common site, the strengths of shaking may be much different among earthquakes even when their hypocentral distances and magnitudes are almost the same. For some cases, PGA differs more than 10 times, which leads to imprecise prediction in EEW. Recently, Numerical Shake Prediction method was proposed (Hoshiba and Aoki, 2015), in which the present ongoing wavefield of ground shaking is estimated using data assimilation technique, and then future wavefield is predicted based on physics of wave propagation. Information of hypocentral location and magnitude is not required in this method. Because future is predicted from the present condition, it is possible to address the issue of the non-concentric distribution. Once the deviated distribution is actually observed in ongoing wavefield, future distribution is predicted accordingly to be non-concentric. We will indicate examples of M6-class earthquakes occurred at central Japan, in which strengths of shaking were observed to non-concentrically distribute. We will show their predictions using Numerical Shake Prediction method. The deviated distribution may be explained by inhomogeneous distribution of attenuation. Even without attenuation structure, it is possible to address the issue of non-concentric distribution to some extent once the deviated distribution is actually observed in ongoing wavefield. If attenuation structure is introduced, we can predict it before actual observation. The information of attenuation structure leads to more precise and rapid prediction in Numerical Shake Prediction method for EEW.

  6. CyberShake-derived ground-motion prediction models for the Los Angeles region with application to earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Böse, Maren; Graves, Robert W.; Gill, David; Callaghan, Scott; Maechling, Philip J.

    2014-09-01

    Real-time applications such as earthquake early warning (EEW) typically use empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) along with event magnitude and source-to-site distances to estimate expected shaking levels. In this simplified approach, effects due to finite-fault geometry, directivity and site and basin response are often generalized, which may lead to a significant under- or overestimation of shaking from large earthquakes (M > 6.5) in some locations. For enhanced site-specific ground-motion predictions considering 3-D wave-propagation effects, we develop support vector regression (SVR) models from the SCEC CyberShake low-frequency (415 000 finite-fault rupture scenarios (6.5 ≤ M ≤ 8.5) for southern California defined in UCERF 2.0. We use CyberShake to demonstrate the application of synthetic waveform data to EEW as a `proof of concept', being aware that these simulations are not yet fully validated and might not appropriately sample the range of rupture uncertainty. Our regression models predict the maximum and the temporal evolution of instrumental intensity (MMI) at 71 selected test sites using only the hypocentre, magnitude and rupture ratio, which characterizes uni- and bilateral rupture propagation. Our regression approach is completely data-driven (where here the CyberShake simulations are considered data) and does not enforce pre-defined functional forms or dependencies among input parameters. The models were established from a subset (˜20 per cent) of CyberShake simulations, but can explain MMI values of all >400 k rupture scenarios with a standard deviation of about 0.4 intensity units. We apply our models to determine threshold magnitudes (and warning times) for various active faults in southern California that earthquakes need to exceed to cause at least `moderate', `strong' or `very strong' shaking in the Los Angeles (LA) basin. These thresholds are used to construct a simple and robust EEW algorithm: to declare a warning, the

  7. Can Satellites Aid Earthquake Predictions?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    John Roach; 李晓辉

    2004-01-01

    @@ Earthquake prediction is an imprecise science, and to illustrate the point,many experts point to the story of Tangshen①, China. On July 28, 1976, a magnitude② 7. 6 earthquake struck the city of Tangshen, China, without warning. None of the signs of the successful prediction from a year and half earlier were present. An estimated 250,000 people died.

  8. Researches on the Nankai trough mega thrust earthquake seismogenic zones using real time observing systems for advanced early warning systems and predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneda, Yoshiyuki

    2015-04-01

    We recognized the importance of real time monitoring on Earthquakes and Tsunamis Based on lessons learned from 2004 Sumatra Earthquake/Tsunamis and 2011 East Japan Earthquake. We deployed DONET1 and are developing DONET2 as real time monitoring systems which are dense ocean floor networks around the Nankai trough seismogenic zone Southwestern Japan. Total observatories of DONE1 and DONET2 are 51 observatories equipped with multi kinds of sensors such as the accelerometer, broadband seismometer, pressure gauge, difference pressure gauge, hydrophone and thermometer in each observatory. These systems are indispensable for not only early warning of Earthquakes/ Tsunamis, but also researches on broadband crustal activities around the Nankai trough seismogenic zone for predictions. DONET1 detected offshore tsunamis 15 minutes earlier than onshore stations at the 2011 East Japan earthquake/tsunami. Furthermore, DONET1/DONET2 will be expected to monitor slow events such as low frequency tremors and slow earthquakes for the prediction researches. Finally, the integration of observations and simulation researches will contribute to estimate of seismic stage changes from the inter-seismic to pre seismic stage. I will introduce applications of DONET1/DONET2 data and advanced simulation researches.

  9. A Prospect of Earthquake Prediction Research

    CERN Document Server

    Ogata, Yosihiko

    2013-01-01

    Earthquakes occur because of abrupt slips on faults due to accumulated stress in the Earth's crust. Because most of these faults and their mechanisms are not readily apparent, deterministic earthquake prediction is difficult. For effective prediction, complex conditions and uncertain elements must be considered, which necessitates stochastic prediction. In particular, a large amount of uncertainty lies in identifying whether abnormal phenomena are precursors to large earthquakes, as well as in assigning urgency to the earthquake. Any discovery of potentially useful information for earthquake prediction is incomplete unless quantitative modeling of risk is considered. Therefore, this manuscript describes the prospect of earthquake predictability research to realize practical operational forecasting in the near future.

  10. Earthquake prediction with electromagnetic phenomena

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hayakawa, Masashi, E-mail: hayakawa@hi-seismo-em.jp [Hayakawa Institute of Seismo Electomagnetics, Co. Ltd., University of Electro-Communications (UEC) Incubation Center, 1-5-1 Chofugaoka, Chofu Tokyo, 182-8585 (Japan); Advanced Wireless & Communications Research Center, UEC, Chofu Tokyo (Japan); Earthquake Analysis Laboratory, Information Systems Inc., 4-8-15, Minami-aoyama, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 107-0062 (Japan); Fuji Security Systems. Co. Ltd., Iwato-cho 1, Shinjyuku-ku, Tokyo (Japan)

    2016-02-01

    Short-term earthquake (EQ) prediction is defined as prospective prediction with the time scale of about one week, which is considered to be one of the most important and urgent topics for the human beings. If this short-term prediction is realized, casualty will be drastically reduced. Unlike the conventional seismic measurement, we proposed the use of electromagnetic phenomena as precursors to EQs in the prediction, and an extensive amount of progress has been achieved in the field of seismo-electromagnetics during the last two decades. This paper deals with the review on this short-term EQ prediction, including the impossibility myth of EQs prediction by seismometers, the reason why we are interested in electromagnetics, the history of seismo-electromagnetics, the ionospheric perturbation as the most promising candidate of EQ prediction, then the future of EQ predictology from two standpoints of a practical science and a pure science, and finally a brief summary.

  11. Dim prospects for earthquake prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geller, Robert J.

    I was misquoted by C. Lomnitz's [1998] Forum letter (Eos, August 4, 1998, p. 373), which said: [I wonder whether Sasha Gusev [1998] actually believes that branding earthquake prediction a ‘proven nonscience’ [Geller, 1997a] is a paradigm for others to copy.”Readers are invited to verify for themselves that neither “proven nonscience” norv any similar phrase was used by Geller [1997a].

  12. Early earthquakes of the Americas

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Niu Zhijun

    2006-01-01

    @@ In recent decades the science of seismology,in particular the study of individual earthquakes, has expanded dramatically. A seismologist can look for evidence of past earthquakes in the material remains that have been excavated by archaeologists.

  13. The ethics of earthquake prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sol, Ayhan; Turan, Halil

    2004-10-01

    Scientists' responsibility to inform the public about their results may conflict with their responsibility not to cause social disturbance by the communication of these results. A study of the well-known Brady-Spence and Iben Browning earthquake predictions illustrates this conflict in the publication of scientifically unwarranted predictions. Furthermore, a public policy that considers public sensitivity caused by such publications as an opportunity to promote public awareness is ethically problematic from (i) a refined consequentialist point of view that any means cannot be justified by any ends, and (ii) a rights view according to which individuals should never be treated as a mere means to ends. The Parkfield experiment, the so-called paradigm case of cooperation between natural and social scientists and the political authorities in hazard management and risk communication, is also open to similar ethical criticism. For the people in the Parkfield area were not informed that the whole experiment was based on a contested seismological paradigm.

  14. Probabilistic approach to earthquake prediction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. D'Addezio

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available The evaluation of any earthquake forecast hypothesis requires the application of rigorous statistical methods. It implies a univocal definition of the model characterising the concerned anomaly or precursor, so as it can be objectively recognised in any circumstance and by any observer.A valid forecast hypothesis is expected to maximise successes and minimise false alarms. The probability gain associated to a precursor is also a popular way to estimate the quality of the predictions based on such precursor. Some scientists make use of a statistical approach based on the computation of the likelihood of an observed realisation of seismic events, and on the comparison of the likelihood obtained under different hypotheses. This method can be extended to algorithms that allow the computation of the density distribution of the conditional probability of earthquake occurrence in space, time and magnitude. Whatever method is chosen for building up a new hypothesis, the final assessment of its validity should be carried out by a test on a new and independent set of observations. The implementation of this test could, however, be problematic for seismicity characterised by long-term recurrence intervals. Even using the historical record, that may span time windows extremely variable between a few centuries to a few millennia, we have a low probability to catch more than one or two events on the same fault. Extending the record of earthquakes of the past back in time up to several millennia, paleoseismology represents a great opportunity to study how earthquakes recur through time and thus provide innovative contributions to time-dependent seismic hazard assessment. Sets of paleoseimologically dated earthquakes have been established for some faults in the Mediterranean area: the Irpinia fault in Southern Italy, the Fucino fault in Central Italy, the El Asnam fault in Algeria and the Skinos fault in Central Greece. By using the age of the

  15. Method discussion for quick response grey prediction of stronger aftershocks of an earthquake sequence

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1999-01-01

    In this paper, we take occurrence process of early strong aftershocks of a main-after shock type′s earthquake sequence as a complex grey system, and introduce predicting method for its stronger aftershocks by grey predicting theory. Through inspection prediction for 1998 Zhangbei MS=6.2 earthquake sequence, it shows that the grey predicting method maybe has active significance for the investigation of quick response prediction problems of stronger aftershocks of an earthquake sequence.

  16. Strong ground motion prediction using virtual earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denolle, M A; Dunham, E M; Prieto, G A; Beroza, G C

    2014-01-24

    Sedimentary basins increase the damaging effects of earthquakes by trapping and amplifying seismic waves. Simulations of seismic wave propagation in sedimentary basins capture this effect; however, there exists no method to validate these results for earthquakes that have not yet occurred. We present a new approach for ground motion prediction that uses the ambient seismic field. We apply our method to a suite of magnitude 7 scenario earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault and compare our ground motion predictions with simulations. Both methods find strong amplification and coupling of source and structure effects, but they predict substantially different shaking patterns across the Los Angeles Basin. The virtual earthquake approach provides a new approach for predicting long-period strong ground motion.

  17. Smartphone MEMS accelerometers and earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Q.; Allen, R. M.; Schreier, L.; Kwon, Y. W.

    2015-12-01

    The low cost MEMS accelerometers in the smartphones are attracting more and more attentions from the science community due to the vast number and potential applications in various areas. We are using the accelerometers inside the smartphones to detect the earthquakes. We did shake table tests to show these accelerometers are also suitable to record large shakings caused by earthquakes. We developed an android app - MyShake, which can even distinguish earthquake movements from daily human activities from the recordings recorded by the accelerometers in personal smartphones and upload trigger information/waveform to our server for further analysis. The data from these smartphones forms a unique datasets for seismological applications, such as earthquake early warning. In this talk I will layout the method we used to recognize earthquake-like movement from single smartphone, and the overview of the whole system that harness the information from a network of smartphones for rapid earthquake detection. This type of system can be easily deployed and scaled up around the global and provides additional insights of the earthquake hazards.

  18. Seismicity dynamics and earthquake predictability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. A. Sobolev

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Many factors complicate earthquake sequences, including the heterogeneity and self-similarity of the geological medium, the hierarchical structure of faults and stresses, and small-scale variations in the stresses from different sources. A seismic process is a type of nonlinear dissipative system demonstrating opposing trends towards order and chaos. Transitions from equilibrium to unstable equilibrium and local dynamic instability appear when there is an inflow of energy; reverse transitions appear when energy is dissipating. Several metastable areas of a different scale exist in the seismically active region before an earthquake. Some earthquakes are preceded by precursory phenomena of a different scale in space and time. These include long-term activation, seismic quiescence, foreshocks in the broad and narrow sense, hidden periodical vibrations, effects of the synchronization of seismic activity, and others. Such phenomena indicate that the dynamic system of lithosphere is moving to a new state – catastrophe. A number of examples of medium-term and short-term precursors is shown in this paper. However, no precursors identified to date are clear and unambiguous: the percentage of missed targets and false alarms is high. The weak fluctuations from outer and internal sources play a great role on the eve of an earthquake and the occurrence time of the future event depends on the collective behavior of triggers. The main task is to improve the methods of metastable zone detection and probabilistic forecasting.

  19. Earthquake prediction from China's mobile gravity data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yiqing Zhu

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The relation between plate tectonics and earthquake evolution is analyzed systematically on the basis of 1998–2010 absolute and relative gravity data from the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China. Most earthquakes originated in the plate boundary or within the fault zone. Tectonic deformation was most intense and exhibited discontinuity within the tectonically active fault zone because of the differential movement; the stress accumulation produced an abrupt gravity change, which was further enhanced by the earthquake. The gravity data from mainland China since 2000 obviously reflected five major earthquakes (Ms > 7, all of which were better reflected than before 2000. Regional gravity anomalies and a gravity gradient change were observed in the area around the epicenter about 2 or 3 years before the earthquake occurred, suggesting that gravity change may be a seismic precursor. Furthermore, in this study, the medium-term predictions of the Ms7.3 Yutian, Ms8.0 Wenchuan, and Ms7.0 Lushan earthquakes are analytically presented and evaluated, especially to estimate location of earthquake.

  20. Is It Possible to Predict Strong Earthquakes?

    CERN Document Server

    Polyakov, Yuriy S; Solovyeva, Anna B; Timashev, Serge F

    2015-01-01

    The possibility of earthquake prediction is one of the key open questions in modern geophysics. We propose an approach based on the analysis of common short-term candidate precursors (2 weeks to 3 months prior to strong earthquake) with the subsequent processing of brain activity signals generated in specific types of rats (kept in laboratory settings) who reportedly sense an impending earthquake few days prior to the event. We illustrate the identification of short-term precursors using the groundwater sodium-ion concentration data in the time frame from 2010 to 2014 (a major earthquake occurred on February 28, 2013), recorded at two different sites in the south-eastern part of the Kamchatka peninsula, Russia. The candidate precursors are observed as synchronized peaks in the nonstationarity factors, introduced within the flicker-noise spectroscopy framework for signal processing, for the high-frequency component of both time series. These peaks correspond to the local reorganizations of the underlying geoph...

  1. Crowd-Sourced Global Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minson, S. E.; Brooks, B. A.; Glennie, C. L.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Owen, S. E.; Iannucci, B. A.; Hauser, D. L.

    2014-12-01

    Although earthquake early warning (EEW) has shown great promise for reducing loss of life and property, it has only been implemented in a few regions due, in part, to the prohibitive cost of building the required dense seismic and geodetic networks. However, many cars and consumer smartphones, tablets, laptops, and similar devices contain low-cost versions of the same sensors used for earthquake monitoring. If a workable EEW system could be implemented based on either crowd-sourced observations from consumer devices or very inexpensive networks of instruments built from consumer-quality sensors, EEW coverage could potentially be expanded worldwide. Controlled tests of several accelerometers and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers typically found in consumer devices show that, while they are significantly noisier than scientific-grade instruments, they are still accurate enough to capture displacements from moderate and large magnitude earthquakes. The accuracy of these sensors varies greatly depending on the type of data collected. Raw coarse acquisition (C/A) code GPS data are relatively noisy. These observations have a surface displacement detection threshold approaching ~1 m and would thus only be useful in large Mw 8+ earthquakes. However, incorporating either satellite-based differential corrections or using a Kalman filter to combine the raw GNSS data with low-cost acceleration data (such as from a smartphone) decreases the noise dramatically. These approaches allow detection thresholds as low as 5 cm, potentially enabling accurate warnings for earthquakes as small as Mw 6.5. Simulated performance tests show that, with data contributed from only a very small fraction of the population, a crowd-sourced EEW system would be capable of warning San Francisco and San Jose of a Mw 7 rupture on California's Hayward fault and could have accurately issued both earthquake and tsunami warnings for the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake.

  2. 76 FR 19123 - National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-06

    ....S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) AGENCY: U.S... Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) will hold a 1-day meeting on April 16, 2011. The meeting... the Director of the U.S. Geological Survey on proposed earthquake predictions, on the completeness and...

  3. A Deterministic Approach to Earthquake Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vittorio Sgrigna

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims at giving suggestions for a deterministic approach to investigate possible earthquake prediction and warning. A fundamental contribution can come by observations and physical modeling of earthquake precursors aiming at seeing in perspective the phenomenon earthquake within the framework of a unified theory able to explain the causes of its genesis, and the dynamics, rheology, and microphysics of its preparation, occurrence, postseismic relaxation, and interseismic phases. Studies based on combined ground and space observations of earthquake precursors are essential to address the issue. Unfortunately, up to now, what is lacking is the demonstration of a causal relationship (with explained physical processes and looking for a correlation between data gathered simultaneously and continuously by space observations and ground-based measurements. In doing this, modern and/or new methods and technologies have to be adopted to try to solve the problem. Coordinated space- and ground-based observations imply available test sites on the Earth surface to correlate ground data, collected by appropriate networks of instruments, with space ones detected on board of Low-Earth-Orbit (LEO satellites. Moreover, a new strong theoretical scientific effort is necessary to try to understand the physics of the earthquake.

  4. Short-Term Foreshocks and Earthquake Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papadopoulos, G. A.; Minadakis, G.; Orfanogiannaki, K.

    2016-12-01

    Foreshock recognition before main shocks depends on various factors, e.g. geophysical, catalogue completeness, foreshock definition, spatiotemporal windows. Foreshocks move towards the main shock epicenter, their number increases with the inverse of time, their b-value drops. However, only in very few single foreshock sequences these 3-D patterns were recognized at the same time, e.g. before the 2009 L' Aquila (Italy) earthquake (Mw6.3) and the 2010, 2014 and 2015 major earthquakes (Mw8+) that ruptured at the subduction zone of Chile. For the first time we found statistically significant 3-D foreshock patterns before small-to-moderate earthquakes. We present two good examples of earthquakes occurring on 4 March 2012 (Mw5.2) and 3 July 2013 (Mw4.8) in Athos and Polyphyto, both in North Greece. The great similarity with the patterns found before strong and major earthquakes indicates that the foreshock process is scale invariant in a wide magnitude range. It is likely that the process is independent of the faulting type at least for dip-slip faulting. There is also a trend of the main shock magnitude to scale with the foreshock area. These findings imply that foreshock activity is likely governed by pattern universality which may also reflect universality in the deformation process thus opening new ways for the foreshock utilization in the prediction of the main shock.

  5. Signals of ENPEMF Used in Earthquake Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, G.; Dong, H.; Zeng, Z.; Wu, G.; Zabrodin, S. M.

    2012-12-01

    The signals of Earth's natural pulse electromagnetic field (ENPEMF) is a combination of the abnormal crustal magnetic field pulse affected by the earthquake, the induced field of earth's endogenous magnetic field, the induced magnetic field of the exogenous variation magnetic field, geomagnetic pulsation disturbance and other energy coupling process between sun and earth. As an instantaneous disturbance of the variation field of natural geomagnetism, ENPEMF can be used to predict earthquakes. This theory was introduced by A.A Vorobyov, who expressed a hypothesis that pulses can arise not only in the atmosphere but within the Earth's crust due to processes of tectonic-to-electric energy conversion (Vorobyov, 1970; Vorobyov, 1979). The global field time scale of ENPEMF signals has specific stability. Although the wave curves may not overlap completely at different regions, the smoothed diurnal ENPEMF patterns always exhibit the same trend per month. The feature is a good reference for observing the abnormalities of the Earth's natural magnetic field in a specific region. The frequencies of the ENPEMF signals generally locate in kilo Hz range, where frequencies within 5-25 kilo Hz range can be applied to monitor earthquakes. In Wuhan, the best observation frequency is 14.5 kilo Hz. Two special devices are placed in accordance with the S-N and W-E direction. Dramatic variation from the comparison between the pulses waveform obtained from the instruments and the normal reference envelope diagram should indicate high possibility of earthquake. The proposed detection method of earthquake based on ENPEMF can improve the geodynamic monitoring effect and can enrich earthquake prediction methods. We suggest the prospective further researches are about on the exact sources composition of ENPEMF signals, the distinction between noise and useful signals, and the effect of the Earth's gravity tide and solid tidal wave. This method may also provide a promising application in

  6. How did the earthquake early warning perform for the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamada, M.; Nishimae, Y.

    2016-12-01

    The 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes are the sequence of two major earthquakes occurred in the Kumamoto, South part of Japan, in April 2016. The first earthquake occurred on April, 14 9:26pm with Mj6.5. The second and larger earthquake occurred 27 hours later, on April 16 1:25am with Mj 7.3. About 50 people were killed due to the collapse of housings and landslides. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) properly provided earthquake early warnings (EEW) for both earthquakes: the warning for the April 14 earthquake was issued at 4 seconds after the first P-wave detection, which is 8 seconds after the origin time. The warning for the April 16 earthquake was issued at 4 seconds after the first P-arrival, and 8.5 seconds after the origin time. The blind zone where EEW was not provided before S-wave arrival is about 25km from the epicenter. This range of blind zone is expected for inland earthquakes whose S-P time is relatively short, so the EEW system worked properly as it was designed. The estimated magnitude was 6.5 and 6.9, respectively, when the warning was reported to public, so the performance of the accuracy and speed was satisfactory. The EEW provided other 17 warnings for smaller earthquakes in Kumamoto prefecture in April 2016. 80% of the warnings (14/17) predicted the seismic intensity within plus-minus 1. However, three events overestimated the seismic intensity by more than 1 unit, and two events underestimated the intensity by more than 1 unit. For the underestimated cases, the magnitude was estimated reasonably well with the error less than 0.3, which suggests this underestimation was due to the error in either attenuation relationship or subsurface soil amplification. For the overestimated cases, the magnitude was also overestimated, which suggests the source estimation had a significant error due to multiple aftershocks. We try to improve this performance to the aftershocks by applying the integrated particle filter approach to the JMA strong motion and Hi

  7. Is It Possible to Predict Strong Earthquakes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polyakov, Y. S.; Ryabinin, G. V.; Solovyeva, A. B.; Timashev, S. F.

    2015-07-01

    The possibility of earthquake prediction is one of the key open questions in modern geophysics. We propose an approach based on the analysis of common short-term candidate precursors (2 weeks to 3 months prior to strong earthquake) with the subsequent processing of brain activity signals generated in specific types of rats (kept in laboratory settings) who reportedly sense an impending earthquake a few days prior to the event. We illustrate the identification of short-term precursors using the groundwater sodium-ion concentration data in the time frame from 2010 to 2014 (a major earthquake occurred on 28 February 2013) recorded at two different sites in the southeastern part of the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia. The candidate precursors are observed as synchronized peaks in the nonstationarity factors, introduced within the flicker-noise spectroscopy framework for signal processing, for the high-frequency component of both time series. These peaks correspond to the local reorganizations of the underlying geophysical system that are believed to precede strong earthquakes. The rodent brain activity signals are selected as potential "immediate" (up to 2 weeks) deterministic precursors because of the recent scientific reports confirming that rodents sense imminent earthquakes and the population-genetic model of K irshvink (Soc Am 90, 312-323, 2000) showing how a reliable genetic seismic escape response system may have developed over the period of several hundred million years in certain animals. The use of brain activity signals, such as electroencephalograms, in contrast to conventional abnormal animal behavior observations, enables one to apply the standard "input-sensor-response" approach to determine what input signals trigger specific seismic escape brain activity responses.

  8. 77 FR 53225 - National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-31

    ... Geological Survey National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) AGENCY: Department of the... National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) will hold a 1\\1/2\\ day meeting on September 17 and 18, 2012, at the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC), 1711...

  9. 78 FR 64973 - National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-30

    ... Geological Survey National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) AGENCY: U.S. Geological Survey, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: Pursuant to Public Law 96-472, the National Earthquake... proposed earthquake predictions, on the completeness and scientific validity of the available data related...

  10. Prediction of slope failure due to earthquake

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN XiaoLi; KATO Nobuaki; TSUNAKI Ryosuke; MUKAI Keiji

    2009-01-01

    The earthquake-triggered landslides and slope failures are common phenomena during strong earthquakes and have drawn more attention from the world because of severe hazards they induced.These hazards usually cannot be prevented by current mitigating measures,thus,it becomes more and more important to develop a precise technique for the risk assessment of earthquake-induced failures in the mountainous area.The application of discrimination analysis method is proved to be successful and effective in the prediction of earthquake-triggered landslides and slope failures in the region of Imokawa Basin in Japan.Diacriminant score can be used to assess the relative risk of slope failures,as the score increases,the possibility of slope failures occurrence increases accordingly.At the same time,the variables in the judgement formula,such as slope gradient,slope curvature and seismic peak ground acceleration,are easy to obtain.This advantage makes this method more practical and manipulable than others at present.In order to apply this method more effectively,there are still several problems to resolve.

  11. Induced earthquake during the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (Mw7.0): Importance of real-time shake monitoring for Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoshiba, M.; Ogiso, M.

    2016-12-01

    Sequence of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes (Mw6.2 on April 14, Mw7.0 on April 16, and many aftershocks) caused a devastating damage at Kumamoto and Oita prefectures, Japan. During the Mw7.0 event, just after the direct S waves passing the central Oita, another M6 class event occurred there more than 80 km apart from the Mw7.0 event. The M6 event is interpreted as an induced earthquake; but it brought stronger shaking at the central Oita than that from the Mw7.0 event. We will discuss the induced earthquake from viewpoint of Earthquake Early Warning. In terms of ground shaking such as PGA and PGV, the Mw7.0 event is much smaller than those of the M6 induced earthquake at the central Oita (for example, 1/8 smaller at OIT009 station for PGA), and then it is easy to discriminate two events. However, PGD of the Mw7.0 is larger than that of the induced earthquake, and its appearance is just before the occurrence of the induced earthquake. It is quite difficult to recognize the induced earthquake from displacement waveforms only, because the displacement is strongly contaminated by that of the preceding Mw7.0 event. In many methods of EEW (including current JMA EEW system), magnitude is used for prediction of ground shaking through Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) and the magnitude is often estimated from displacement. However, displacement magnitude does not necessarily mean the best one for prediction of ground shaking, such as PGA and PGV. In case of the induced earthquake during the Kumamoto earthquake, displacement magnitude could not be estimated because of the strong contamination. Actually JMA EEW system could not recognize the induced earthquake. One of the important lessons we learned from eight years' operation of EEW is an issue of the multiple simultaneous earthquakes, such as aftershocks of the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake. Based on this lesson, we have proposed enhancement of real-time monitor of ground shaking itself instead of rapid estimation of

  12. Site correction of earthquake early warning system in Ilan, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiao Chu, Hsu; Liang, Wen Kuo; Jyun Yan, Huang

    2015-04-01

    When large earthquake occurs, earthquake early warning (EEW) provides alerts to urban areas of the forthcoming strong ground shaking. Depending on the specific geometry of the epicenter and the strong motion network used in EEW, the warning time can be a few seconds to tens of seconds. This warning time can be extremely important since even a few seconds can be sufficient for pre-programmed systems to have emergency response. The Central Weather Bureau (CWB) had already used network EEW system to predict intensity map. Due to leveling of intensity was roughly divided into seven grades according to peak acceleration (PGA) in Taiwan, the warning message is not cautious for company, home and school use, the accuracy of predicted PGA were discuss for our result. A practical site correction approach for EEW was constructed in this study. Period parameter (τc) and an amplitude parameter (Pd)from the initial 3 seconds of P waves were calculated after Wu et al.(2005) first for each site of Taiwan Strong-Motion Instrumentation Program (TSMIP) in Ilan, Taiwan for focal depths less than 35 km and magnitude Mw>=5.0. Two pairs of linear relations had showed in each station between τc, magnitude (Mw) and Pd, hypocenter distance (R) that could be corrected individually. Prediction results of PGA from site correction based ground motion prediction equation (Jean et al. 2006) indicated that the corrected parameters of EEW in this study had improved the accuracy of ground motion prediction. Which means reasonable site correction of each station was needed for EEW system. Key works: earthquake early warning, P wave, site correction

  13. 76 FR 69761 - National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-09

    ....S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) AGENCY: U.S. Geological Survey. ACTION: Notice of Meeting. SUMMARY: Pursuant to Public Law 96-472, the National Earthquake... Government. The Council shall advise the Director of the U.S. Geological Survey on proposed earthquake...

  14. An empirical evolutionary magnitude estimation for early warning of earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Da-Yi; Wu, Yih-Min; Chin, Tai-Lin

    2017-03-01

    The earthquake early warning (EEW) system is difficult to provide consistent magnitude estimate in the early stage of an earthquake occurrence because only few stations are triggered and few seismic signals are recorded. One of the feasible methods to measure the size of earthquakes is to extract amplitude parameters using the initial portion of the recorded waveforms after P-wave arrival. However, for a large-magnitude earthquake (Mw > 7.0), the time to complete the whole ruptures resulted from the corresponding fault may be very long. The magnitude estimations may not be correctly predicted by the initial portion of the seismograms. To estimate the magnitude of a large earthquake in real-time, the amplitude parameters should be updated with ongoing waveforms instead of adopting amplitude contents in a predefined fixed-length time window, since it may underestimate magnitude for large-magnitude events. In this paper, we propose a fast, robust and less-saturated approach to estimate earthquake magnitudes. The EEW system will initially give a lower-bound of the magnitude in a time window with a few seconds and then update magnitude with less saturation by extending the time window. Here we compared two kinds of time windows for measuring amplitudes. One is P-wave time window (PTW) after P-wave arrival; the other is whole-wave time window after P-wave arrival (WTW), which may include both P and S wave. One to ten second time windows for both PTW and WTW are considered to measure the peak ground displacement from the vertical component of the waveforms. Linear regression analysis are run at each time step (1- to 10-s time interval) to find the empirical relationships among peak ground displacement, hypocentral distances, and magnitudes using the earthquake records from 1993 to 2012 in Taiwan with magnitude greater than 5.5 and focal depth less than 30 km. The result shows that considering WTW to estimate magnitudes has smaller standard deviation than PTW. The

  15. Prediction of Earthquakes by Lunar Cicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, G.

    2007-05-01

    Prediction of Earthquakes by Lunar Cicles Author ; Guillermo Rodriguez Rodriguez Afiliation Geophysic and Astrophysicist. Retired I have exposed this idea to many meetings of EGS, UGS, IUGG 95, from 80, 82.83,and AGU 2002 Washington and 2003 Niza I have thre aproximition in Time 1º Earthquakes hapen The same day of the years every 18 or 19 years (cicle Saros ) Some times in the same place or anhother very far . In anhother moments of the year , teh cicle can be are ; 14 years, 26 years, 32 years or the multiples o 18.61 years expecial 55, 93, 224, 150 ,300 etcetc. For To know the day in the year 2º Over de cicle o one Lunation ( Days over de date of new moon) The greats Earthquakes hapens with diferents intervals of days in the sucesives lunations (aproximately one month) like we can be see in the grafic enclosed. For to know the day of month 3º Over each day I have find that each 28 day repit aproximately the same hour and minute. The same longitude and the same latitud in all earthquakes , also the littles ones . This is very important because we can to proposse only the precaution of wait it in the street or squares Whenever some times the cicles can be longuers or more littles This is my special way of cientific metode As consecuence of the 1º and 2º principe we can look The correlation between years separated by cicles of the 1º tipe For example 1984 and 2002 0r 2003 and consecutive years include 2007...During 30 years I have look de dates. I am in my subconcense the way but I can not make it in scientific formalisme

  16. Gambling scores for earthquake predictions and forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Jiancang

    2010-04-01

    This paper presents a new method, namely the gambling score, for scoring the performance earthquake forecasts or predictions. Unlike most other scoring procedures that require a regular scheme of forecast and treat each earthquake equally, regardless their magnitude, this new scoring method compensates the risk that the forecaster has taken. Starting with a certain number of reputation points, once a forecaster makes a prediction or forecast, he is assumed to have betted some points of his reputation. The reference model, which plays the role of the house, determines how many reputation points the forecaster can gain if he succeeds, according to a fair rule, and also takes away the reputation points betted by the forecaster if he loses. This method is also extended to the continuous case of point process models, where the reputation points betted by the forecaster become a continuous mass on the space-time-magnitude range of interest. We also calculate the upper bound of the gambling score when the true model is a renewal process, the stress release model or the ETAS model and when the reference model is the Poisson model.

  17. Early aftershock decay rate of the M6 Parkfield earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Z.; Vidale, J. E.

    2004-12-01

    Mainshock rupture is typically followed by its aftershocks that diminish in rate approximately as the reciprocal of the elapse time. However, it is notoriously difficult to observe aftershock activity in the noisy aftermath of larger earthquakes. Many aftershocks were missed in the existing seismicity catalogs in the initial few minutes (Kagan, 2004). Yet this period holds valuable information about the transition from mainshock rupture to sporadic aftershocks, and the friction laws that control earthquakes. The Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault is one of most densely seismometered places in the world. Many near-fault, non-clipped and continuous recordings of the M6 Parkfield earthquake and its aftermath have been recovered, providing an excellent opportunity for us to study the aftershock decay rates in the first few hundred seconds after the mainshock. We have so far analyzed recordings from station PKD and 13 stations in the Parkfield High Resolution Seismic Network. By scrutinizing the high-frequency signal, we are able to distinguish mainshock coda from early aftershocks. We find up to 10 times more aftershocks in the first 1000 s than in the USGS NCSN catalog. More than 30 events are detected in the first 200 s after the mainshock. None of these events are in the USGS NCSN catalog. Preliminary results suggest a strong deficit of aftershocks in the first 100 s after the mainshock relative to a 1/t aftershock rate decay. This pattern is consistent with a lack of seismicity in the first 120 s following the 10/31/2001 M5.1 Anza earthquake (Kilb et al., 2004), and our study of early aftershock rates using data from HiNet array in Japan (Vidale et al., 2004). Our observations will allow us to test the prediction of such an interval in rate-and-state friction models prior to the onset of the 1/t aftershock decay rate (Dieterich, 1994).

  18. Impending HRT wave precursors to the Wenchuan M_s8.0 earthquake and methods of earthquake impending prediction by using HRT wave

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    We deployed four geo-electric monitoring stations in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces from 2004, using the new generation of equipment (PS-100) and technologies to capture the HRT wave earthquake precursor. Before the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake, we recorded the HRT wave precursor at the only operating station in Hongge (HG, Δ=465 km) and found that significant impending signal had been recorded at the station in the early morning ( 0―5 am) of 12th of May, 2008. The precursor for this earthquake is consistent with precursors recorded for other strong earthquakes. The measured physical properties (geo-resistivity and telluric-current) show tidal wave period oscillations from several days to several months before the earthquakes and the amplitude of such HT oscillation increases significantly towards the occurrence of an earthquake. These HT and RT waves from the epicenter have a causal relationship with the earthquakes that happened several days later. The arrival time of two RT waves is proportional to the distance from the station to the epicenter. The estimated natural decay of the amplitude is correlated with the natural period (T0) of the earthquake fault, which is proportional to the fault length. From this relationship, we can predict the earthquake magnitude. For magnitude 6―9 earthquakes, the natural period is about 1―6 hours. Such oscillation comes from the epicenter area and they can propagate several thousand kilometers in the Earth’s crust. Before a strong earthquake in the shallow crust, the conductive pore fluid will experience major changes before the fault rapture. Such fluid change will emit an oscillation in the pore fluid pressure. This is the mechanism for the HRT wave generation. Since the China Earthquake Administration funded the HRT wave short-term earth-quake prediction project in 2003, the first record of HRT precursor wave has been recorded from the 2004-12-26 Sumatra Mw9.0 earthquake with the largest epicentre distance Δ=2900 km

  19. Gambling scores in earthquake prediction analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Molchan, G

    2010-01-01

    The number of successes 'n' and the normalized measure of space-time alarm 'tau' are commonly used to characterize the strength of an earthquake prediction method and the significance of prediction results. To evaluate better the forecaster's skill, it has been recently suggested to use a new characteristic, the gambling score R, which incorporates the difficulty of guessing each target event by using different weights for different alarms. We expand the class of R-characteristics and apply these to the analysis of results of the M8 prediction algorithm. We show that the level of significance 'alfa' strongly depends (1) on the choice of weighting alarm parameters, (2) on the partitioning of the entire alarm volume into component parts, and (3) on the accuracy of the spatial rate of target events, m(dg). These tools are at the disposal of the researcher and can affect the significance estimate in either direction. All the R-statistics discussed here corroborate that the prediction of 8.0<=M<8.5 events by...

  20. Prediction of earthquake-triggered landslide event sizes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Anika; Havenith, Hans-Balder; Schlögel, Romy

    2016-04-01

    Seismically induced landslides are a major environmental effect of earthquakes, which may significantly contribute to related losses. Moreover, in paleoseismology landslide event sizes are an important proxy for the estimation of the intensity and magnitude of past earthquakes and thus allowing us to improve seismic hazard assessment over longer terms. Not only earthquake intensity, but also factors such as the fault characteristics, topography, climatic conditions and the geological environment have a major impact on the intensity and spatial distribution of earthquake induced landslides. We present here a review of factors contributing to earthquake triggered slope failures based on an "event-by-event" classification approach. The objective of this analysis is to enable the short-term prediction of earthquake triggered landslide event sizes in terms of numbers and size of the affected area right after an earthquake event occurred. Five main factors, 'Intensity', 'Fault', 'Topographic energy', 'Climatic conditions' and 'Surface geology' were used to establish a relationship to the number and spatial extend of landslides triggered by an earthquake. The relative weight of these factors was extracted from published data for numerous past earthquakes; topographic inputs were checked in Google Earth and through geographic information systems. Based on well-documented recent earthquakes (e.g. Haiti 2010, Wenchuan 2008) and on older events for which reliable extensive information was available (e.g. Northridge 1994, Loma Prieta 1989, Guatemala 1976, Peru 1970) the combination and relative weight of the factors was calibrated. The calibrated factor combination was then applied to more than 20 earthquake events for which landslide distribution characteristics could be cross-checked. One of our main findings is that the 'Fault' factor, which is based on characteristics of the fault, the surface rupture and its location with respect to mountain areas, has the most important

  1. Earthquake early warning for the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake: performance evaluation of the current system and the next-generation methods of the Japan Meteorological Agency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodera, Yuki; Saitou, Jun; Hayashimoto, Naoki; Adachi, Shimpei; Morimoto, Masahiko; Nishimae, Yuji; Hoshiba, Mitsuyuki

    2016-12-01

    The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (Kumamoto earthquake sequence) is an extremely high-seismicity event that has been occurring across Kumamoto and Oita Prefectures in Japan since April 14, 2016 (JST). The earthquake early warning system of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) issued warnings for 19 events in the Kumamoto earthquake sequence from April 14 to 19, under some of the heaviest loading conditions since the system began operating in 2007. We analyzed the system performance for cases where a warning was issued and/or strong motion was actually observed. The results indicated that the system exhibited remarkable performance, especially for the most destructive earthquakes in the Kumamoto earthquake sequence. In addition, the system did not miss or seriously under-predict strong motion of any large earthquake from April 14 to 30. However, in four cases, the system issued over-predicted warnings due to the simultaneous occurrence of small earthquakes within a short distance, which implies a fundamental obstacle in trigger-data classifications based solely on arrival time. We also performed simulations using the integrated particle filter (IPF) and propagation of local undamped motion (PLUM) methods, which JMA plans to implement to address over-prediction for multiple simultaneous earthquakes and under-prediction for massive earthquakes with large rupture zones. The simulation results of the IPF method indicated that the IPF method is highly effective at minimizing over-prediction even for multiple simultaneous earthquakes within a short distance, since it adopts a trigger-data classification using velocity amplitude and hypocenter determinations using not-yet-arrived data. The simulation results of the PLUM method demonstrated that the PLUM method is capable of issuing warnings for destructive inland earthquakes more rapidly than the current system owing to the use of additional seismometers that can only be incorporated by this method.[Figure not available: see

  2. Prediction of earthquakes: a data evaluation and exchange problem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melchior, Paul

    1978-11-15

    Recent experiences in earthquake prediction are recalled. Precursor information seems to be available from geodetic measurements, hydrological and geochemical measurements, electric and magnetic measurements, purely seismic phenomena, and zoological phenomena; some new methods are proposed. A list of possible earthquake triggers is given. The dilatancy model is contrasted with a dry model; they seem to be equally successful. In conclusion, the space and time range of the precursors is discussed in relation to the magnitude of earthquakes. (RWR)

  3. Gambling score in earthquake prediction analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molchan, G.; Romashkova, L.

    2011-03-01

    The number of successes and the space-time alarm rate are commonly used to characterize the strength of an earthquake prediction method and the significance of prediction results. It has been recently suggested to use a new characteristic to evaluate the forecaster's skill, the gambling score (GS), which incorporates the difficulty of guessing each target event by using different weights for different alarms. We expand parametrization of the GS and use the M8 prediction algorithm to illustrate difficulties of the new approach in the analysis of the prediction significance. We show that the level of significance strongly depends (1) on the choice of alarm weights, (2) on the partitioning of the entire alarm volume into component parts and (3) on the accuracy of the spatial rate measure of target events. These tools are at the disposal of the researcher and can affect the significance estimate. Formally, all reasonable GSs discussed here corroborate that the M8 method is non-trivial in the prediction of 8.0 ≤M < 8.5 events because the point estimates of the significance are in the range 0.5-5 per cent. However, the conservative estimate 3.7 per cent based on the number of successes seems preferable owing to two circumstances: (1) it is based on relative values of the spatial rate and hence is more stable and (2) the statistic of successes enables us to construct analytically an upper estimate of the significance taking into account the uncertainty of the spatial rate measure.

  4. Apply ETAS in Earthquake Early Warning - A case study of M6.0 South Napa Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, L.; Heaton, T. H.

    2014-12-01

    Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) is a trade-off between time and accuracy. We aim to increase the alerting time without loosing its reliability. This can be achieved by using prior information to classify a pick to be a true or false event, then issue alerts immediately after the first trigger. Since earthquakes cluster in time and location, potential aftershock occurrences can be predicted using the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence Model (ETAS). We show that by applying the prior information provided by ETAS in the Bayesian updating process of EEW, we can significantly improve the alerting time. As an example, the epicenter estimation for the aftershock events from the M6.0 South Napa Earthquake is performed using ETAS to illustrate the accuracy of aftershock prediction. For instance, in an aftershock sequence, the most triggers at the closest stations will turn out to be real earthquake. As a result, during the aftershock sequence of the South Napa earthquake, warnings can be issued after observations of only one or two stations.

  5. The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake and the Rise and Fall of Earthquake Prediction in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Q.; Wang, K.

    2009-12-01

    Regardless of the future potential of earthquake prediction, it is presently impractical to rely on it to mitigate earthquake disasters. The practical approach is to strengthen the resilience of our built environment to earthquakes based on hazard assessment. But this was not common understanding in China when the M 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake struck the Sichuan Province on 12 May 2008, claiming over 80,000 lives. In China, earthquake prediction is a government-sanctioned and law-regulated measure of disaster prevention. A sudden boom of the earthquake prediction program in 1966-1976 coincided with a succession of nine M > 7 damaging earthquakes in the densely populated region of the country and the political chaos of the Cultural Revolution. It climaxed with the prediction of the 1975 Haicheng earthquake, which was due mainly to an unusually pronounced foreshock sequence and the extraordinary readiness of some local officials to issue imminent warning and evacuation order. The Haicheng prediction was a success in practice and yielded useful lessons, but the experience cannot be applied to most other earthquakes and cultural environments. Since the disastrous Tangshan earthquake in 1976 that killed over 240,000 people, there have been two opposite trends in China: decreasing confidence in prediction and increasing emphasis on regulating construction design for earthquake resilience. In 1976, most of the seismic intensity XI areas of Tangshan were literally razed to the ground, but in 2008, many buildings in the intensity XI areas of Wenchuan did not collapse. Prediction did not save life in either of these events; the difference was made by construction standards. For regular buildings, there was no seismic design in Tangshan to resist any earthquake shaking in 1976, but limited seismic design was required for the Wenchuan area in 2008. Although the construction standards were later recognized to be too low, those buildings that met the standards suffered much less

  6. Performance of wire-type Rn detectors operated with gas gain in ambient air in view of its possible application to early earthquake predictions

    CERN Document Server

    Charpak, Georges; Breuil, P; Nappi, E; Martinengo, P; Peskov, V

    2010-01-01

    We describe a detector of alpha particles based on wire type counters (single-wire and multiwire) operating in ambient air at high gas gains (100-1000). The main advantages of these detectors are: low cost, robustness and ability to operate in humid air. The minimum detectable activity achieved with the multiwire detector for an integration time of 1 min is 140 Bq per m3, which is comparable to that featured by commercial devices. Owing to such features the detector is suited for massive application, for example for continuous monitoring of Rn or Po contaminations or, as discussed in the paper, its use in a network of Rn counters in areas affected by earth-quakes in order to verify, on a solid statistical basis, the envisaged correlation between the sudden Rn appearance and a forthcoming earthquake.

  7. Earthquake Early Warning for the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake: Performance Evaluation of the Current System and Simulations of the Next-Generation Methods of the Japan Meteorological Agency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodera, Y.; Saitou, J.; Hayashimoto, N.; Adachi, S.; Morimoto, M.; Nishimae, Y.; Hoshiba, M.

    2016-12-01

    The sequence of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (the Kumamoto earthquake) is extremely high seismic activity that occurred across Kumamoto and Oita prefectures in Japan since April 14, 2016 at 21:26 (JST). The Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) processed large amount of earthquake data and issued 19 warnings (higher grade alerts) and 175 forecasts (lower grade alerts) for the Kumamoto earthquake from April 14 to 30. Especially on April 14 and 16, the system operated under one of the highest workload conditions since JMA started its EEW service. We evaluated the system performance for cases where the warning was issued and/or the maximum seismic intensity of ≥5L (on the JMA scale) was actually observed, calculating prediction scores and lapse times from detection. The result shows that the system rapidly disseminated high accurate EEW announcements for most of the devastating earthquakes and did not miss or seriously under-predict strong motions. On the other hand, the system issued over-predicted warnings when multiple simultaneous earthquakes occurred within a short distance, comparable with the interval of the seismic observation network. We also simulated the Integrated Particle Filter (IPF) and Propagation of Local Undamped Motion (PLUM) methods, scheduled to be implemented in the JMA EEW system to minimize over-prediction with multiple simultaneous earthquakes and under-prediction with huge earthquakes (M> 8). The simulation results indicate that the IPF method is highly effective for the cases where the current system issued the over-predicted warnings, owing to its classification algorithm using amplitude data and its robust hypocenter determination against outliers among trigger data. The results also show that the PLUM method contributes to more rapid warning issuance for the devastating earthquakes, owing to its denser seismic observation network.

  8. Simulating Earthquake Early Warning Systems in the Classroom as a New Approach to Teaching Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Alessio, M. A.

    2010-12-01

    A discussion of P- and S-waves seems an ubiquitous part of studying earthquakes in the classroom. Textbooks from middle school through university level typically define the differences between the waves and illustrate the sense of motion. While many students successfully memorize the differences between wave types (often utilizing the first letter as a memory aide), textbooks rarely give tangible examples of how the two waves would "feel" to a person sitting on the ground. One reason for introducing the wave types is to explain how to calculate earthquake epicenters using seismograms and travel time charts -- very abstract representations of earthquakes. Even when the skill is mastered using paper-and-pencil activities or one of the excellent online interactive versions, locating an epicenter simply does not excite many of our students because it evokes little emotional impact, even in students located in earthquake-prone areas. Despite these limitations, huge numbers of students are mandated to complete the task. At the K-12 level, California requires that all students be able to locate earthquake epicenters in Grade 6; in New York, the skill is a required part of the Regent's Examination. Recent innovations in earthquake early warning systems around the globe give us the opportunity to address the same content standard, but with substantially more emotional impact on students. I outline a lesson about earthquakes focused on earthquake early warning systems. The introductory activities include video clips of actual earthquakes and emphasize the differences between the way P- and S-waves feel when they arrive (P arrives first, but is weaker). I include an introduction to the principle behind earthquake early warning (including a summary of possible uses of a few seconds warning about strong shaking) and show examples from Japan. Students go outdoors to simulate P-waves, S-waves, and occupants of two different cities who are talking to one another on cell phones

  9. Mathematical principles of predicting the probabilities of large earthquakes

    CERN Document Server

    Ghertzik, V M

    2009-01-01

    A multicomponent random process used as a model for the problem of space-time earthquake prediction; this allows us to develop consistent estimation for conditional probabilities of large earthquakes if the values of the predictor characterizing the seismicity prehistory are known. We introduce tools for assessing prediction efficiency, including a separate determination of efficiency for "time prediction" and "location prediction": a generalized correlation coefficient and the density of information gain. We suggest a technique for testing the predictor to decide whether the hypothesis of no prediction can be rejected.

  10. Application and analysis of debris-flow early warning system in Wenchuan earthquake-affected area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, D. L.; Zhang, S. J.; Yang, H. J.; Zhao, L. Q.; Jiang, Y. H.; Tang, D.; Leng, X. P.

    2016-02-01

    The activities of debris flow (DF) in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area significantly increased after the earthquake on 12 May 2008. The safety of the lives and property of local people is threatened by DFs. A physics-based early warning system (EWS) for DF forecasting was developed and applied in this earthquake area. This paper introduces an application of the system in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area and analyzes the prediction results via a comparison to the DF events triggered by the strong rainfall events reported by the local government. The prediction accuracy and efficiency was first compared with a contribution-factor-based system currently used by the weather bureau of Sichuan province. The storm on 17 August 2012 was used as a case study for this comparison. The comparison shows that the false negative rate and false positive rate of the new system is, respectively, 19 and 21 % lower than the system based on the contribution factors. Consequently, the prediction accuracy is obviously higher than the system based on the contribution factors with a higher operational efficiency. On the invitation of the weather bureau of Sichuan province, the authors upgraded their prediction system of DF by using this new system before the monsoon of Wenchuan earthquake-affected area in 2013. Two prediction cases on 9 July 2013 and 10 July 2014 were chosen to further demonstrate that the new EWS has high stability, efficiency, and prediction accuracy.

  11. Hurricane Sandy and earthquakes

    OpenAIRE

    MAVASHEV BORIS; MAVASHEV IGOR

    2013-01-01

    Submit for consideration the connection between formation of a hurricane Sandy and earthquakes. As a rule, weather anomalies precede and accompany earthquakes. The hurricane Sandy emerged 2 days prior to strong earthquakes that occurred in the area. And the trajectory of the hurricane Sandy matched the epicenter of the earthquakes. Possibility of early prediction of natural disasters will minimize the moral and material damage.

  12. Earthquake Early Warning with Seismogeodesy: Detection, Location, and Magnitude Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, D.; Bock, Y.; Melgar, D.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquake early warning is critical to reducing injuries and casualties in case of a large magnitude earthquake. The system must rely on near-source data to minimize the time between event onset and issuance of a warning. Early warning systems typically use seismic instruments (seismometers and accelerometers), but these instruments experience difficulty maintaining reliable data in the near-source region and undergo magnitude saturation for large events. Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) instruments capture the long period motions and have been shown to produce robust estimates of the true size of the earthquake source. However, GNSS is often overlooked in this context in part because it is not precise enough to record the first seismic wave arrivals (P-wave detection), an important consideration for issuing an early warning. GNSS instruments are becoming integrated into early warning, but are not yet fully exploited. Our approach involves the combination of direct measurements from collocated GNSS and accelerometer stations to estimate broadband coseismic displacement and velocity waveforms [Bock et al., 2011], a method known as seismogeodesy. We present the prototype seismogeodetic early warning system developed at Scripps and demonstrate that the seismogeodetic dataset can be used for P-wave detection, hypocenter location, and shaking onset determination. We discuss uncertainties in each of these estimates and include discussion of the sensitivity of our estimates as a function of the azimuthal distribution of monitoring stations. The seismogeodetic combination has previously been shown to be immune to magnitude saturation [Crowell et al., 2013; Melgar et al., 2015]. Rapid magnitude estimation is an important product in earthquake early warning, and is the critical metric in current tsunami hazard warnings. Using the seismogeodetic approach, we refine earthquake magnitude scaling using P-wave amplitudes (Pd) and peak ground displacements (PGD) for a

  13. Application of Astronomic Time-latitude Residuals in Earthquake Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanben, Han; Lihua, Ma; Hui, Hu; Rui, Wang; Youjin, Su

    2007-04-01

    After the earthquake (Ms = 6.1) occurred in Luquan county of Yunnan province on April 18, 1985, the relationship between major earthquakes and astronomical time-latitude residuals (ATLR) of a photoelectric astrolabe in Yunnan Observatory was analyzed. ATLR are the rest after deducting the effects of Earth’s whole motion from the observations of time and latitude. It was found that there appeared the anomalies of the ATLR before earthquakes which happened in and around Yunnan, a seismic active region. The reason of the anomalies is possibly from change of the plumb line due to the motion of the groundmass before earthquakes. Afterwards, using studies of the anomalous characters and laws of ATLR, we tried to provide the warning information prior to the occurrence of a few major earthquakes in the region. The significant synchronous anomalies of ATLR of the observatory appeared before the earthquake of magnitude 6.2 in Dayao county of Yunnan province, on July 21, 2003. It has been again verified that the anomalies possibly provide the prediction information for strong earthquakes around the observatory.

  14. GPS Earthquake Early Warning in Cascadia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melbourne, T. I.; Scrivner, C. W.; Santillan, V. M.; Webb, F.

    2011-12-01

    Over 400 GPS receivers of the combined PANGA and PBO networks currently operate along the Cascadia subduction zone, all of which are high-rate and telemetered in real-time. These receivers span the M9 megathrust, M7 crustal faults beneath population centers, several active Cascades volcanoes, and a host of other hazard sources, and together enable a host of new approaches towards hazards mitigation. Data from the majority of the stations is received in real time at CWU and processed into one-second position estimates using 1) relative positioning within several reference frames constrained by 2) absolute point positioning using streamed satellite orbit and clock corrections. While the former produces lower-noise time series, for earthquakes greater than ~M7 and ground displacements exceeding ~20 cm, point positioning alone is shown to provide very rapid and robust estimates of the location and amplitude of both dynamic strong ground motion and permanent deformation. The advantage of point-positioning over relative positioning for earthquake applications lies primarily in the fact that each station's position is estimated independently, without double-differencing, within a reference frame defined by earth's center of mass and the satellite orbits. Point positioning does not require a nearby stable reference station or network whose motion (such as during a seismic event) aliases directly into fictitious displacement of any station in question. Thus, for real-time GPS earthquake characterization, this is of great importance in ensuring a robust measurement. We are now producing real-time point-positions using GIPSY5 and corrections to broadcast satellite clocks and orbits streamed live from the DLR in Germany. We have also developed a stream-editor to flag and fix cycle-slips and other data problems on the fly prior to positioning. We are achieving stream any or all of these data products onto local computers for customized analyses and triggers.

  15. Combining Multiple Rupture Models in Real-Time for Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minson, S. E.; Wu, S.; Beck, J. L.; Heaton, T. H.

    2015-12-01

    The ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system for the west coast of the United States is designed to combine information from multiple independent earthquake analysis algorithms in order to provide the public with robust predictions of shaking intensity at each user's location before they are affected by strong shaking. The current contributing analyses come from algorithms that determine the origin time, epicenter, and magnitude of an earthquake (On-site, ElarmS, and Virtual Seismologist). A second generation of algorithms will provide seismic line source information (FinDer), as well as geodetically-constrained slip models (BEFORES, GPSlip, G-larmS, G-FAST). These new algorithms will provide more information about the spatial extent of the earthquake rupture and thus improve the quality of the resulting shaking forecasts.Each of the contributing algorithms exploits different features of the observed seismic and geodetic data, and thus each algorithm may perform differently for different data availability and earthquake source characteristics. Thus the ShakeAlert system requires a central mediator, called the Central Decision Module (CDM). The CDM acts to combine disparate earthquake source information into one unified shaking forecast. Here we will present a new design for the CDM that uses a Bayesian framework to combine earthquake reports from multiple analysis algorithms and compares them to observed shaking information in order to both assess the relative plausibility of each earthquake report and to create an improved unified shaking forecast complete with appropriate uncertainties. We will describe how these probabilistic shaking forecasts can be used to provide each user with a personalized decision-making tool that can help decide whether or not to take a protective action (such as opening fire house doors or stopping trains) based on that user's distance to the earthquake, vulnerability to shaking, false alarm tolerance, and time required to act.

  16. ElarmS Earthquake Early Warning System Updates and Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, A. I.; Allen, R. M.; Hellweg, M.; Henson, I. H.; Neuhauser, D. S.

    2015-12-01

    The ElarmS earthquake early warning algorithm has been detecting earthquakes throughout California since 2007. It is one of the algorithms that contributes to CISN's ShakeAlert, a prototype earthquake early warning system being developed for California. Overall, ElarmS performance has been excellent. Over the past year (July 1, 2014 - July 1, 2015), ElarmS successfully detected all but three of the significant earthquakes (M4+) that occurred within California. Of the 24 events that were detected, the most notable was the M6.0 South Napa earthquake that occurred on August 24, 2014. The first alert for this event was sent in 5.1 seconds with an initial magnitude estimate of M5.7. This alert provided approximately 8 seconds of warning of the impending S-wave arrival to the city of San Francisco. The magnitude estimate increased to the final value of M6.0 within 15 seconds of the initial alert. One of the two events that were not detected by ElarmS occurred within 30 seconds of the M6.0 Napa mainshock. The two other missed events occurred offshore in a region with sparse station coverage in the Eureka area. Since its inception, ElarmS has evolved and adapted to meet new challenges. On May 30, 2015, an extraordinarily deep (678km) M7.8 teleseism in Japan generated 5 false event detections for earthquakes greater than M4 within a minute due to the simultaneous arrival of the P-waves at stations throughout California. In order to improve the speed and accuracy of the ElarmS detections, we are currently exploring new methodologies to quickly evaluate incoming triggers from individual stations. Rapidly determining whether or not a trigger at a given station is due to a local earthquake or some other source (such as a distant teleseism) could dramatically increase the confidence in individual triggers and reduce false alerts.

  17. An empirical evolutionary magnitude estimation for earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yih-Min; Chen, Da-Yi

    2016-04-01

    For earthquake early warning (EEW) system, it is a difficult mission to accurately estimate earthquake magnitude in the early nucleation stage of an earthquake occurrence because only few stations are triggered and the recorded seismic waveforms are short. One of the feasible methods to measure the size of earthquakes is to extract amplitude parameters within the initial portion of waveform after P-wave arrival. However, a large-magnitude earthquake (Mw > 7.0) may take longer time to complete the whole ruptures of the causative fault. Instead of adopting amplitude contents in fixed-length time window, that may underestimate magnitude for large-magnitude events, we suppose a fast, robust and unsaturated approach to estimate earthquake magnitudes. In this new method, the EEW system can initially give a bottom-bund magnitude in a few second time window and then update magnitude without saturation by extending the time window. Here we compared two kinds of time windows for adopting amplitudes. One is pure P-wave time widow (PTW); the other is whole-wave time window after P-wave arrival (WTW). The peak displacement amplitude in vertical component were adopted from 1- to 10-s length PTW and WTW, respectively. Linear regression analysis were implemented to find the empirical relationships between peak displacement, hypocentral distances, and magnitudes using the earthquake records from 1993 to 2012 with magnitude greater than 5.5 and focal depth less than 30 km. The result shows that using WTW to estimate magnitudes accompanies with smaller standard deviation. In addition, large uncertainties exist in the 1-second time widow. Therefore, for magnitude estimations we suggest the EEW system need to progressively adopt peak displacement amplitudes form 2- to 10-s WTW.

  18. Sun-earth environment study to understand earthquake prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, S.

    2007-05-01

    Earthquake prediction is possible by looking into the location of active sunspots before it harbours energy towards earth. Earth is a restless planet the restlessness turns deadly occasionally. Of all natural hazards, earthquakes are the most feared. For centuries scientists working in seismically active regions have noted premonitory signals. Changes in thermosphere, Ionosphere, atmosphere and hydrosphere are noted before the changes in geosphere. The historical records talk of changes of the water level in wells, of strange weather, of ground-hugging fog, of unusual behaviour of animals (due to change in magnetic field of the earth) that seem to feel the approach of a major earthquake. With the advent of modern science and technology the understanding of these pre-earthquake signals has become stronger enough to develop a methodology of earthquake prediction. A correlation of earth directed coronal mass ejection (CME) from the active sunspots has been possible to develop as a precursor of the earthquake. Occasional local magnetic field and planetary indices (Kp values) changes in the lower atmosphere that is accompanied by the formation of haze and a reduction of moisture in the air. Large patches, often tens to hundreds of thousands of square kilometres in size, seen in night-time infrared satellite images where the land surface temperature seems to fluctuate rapidly. Perturbations in the ionosphere at 90 - 120 km altitude have been observed before the occurrence of earthquakes. These changes affect the transmission of radio waves and a radio black out has been observed due to CME. Another heliophysical parameter Electron flux (Eflux) has been monitored before the occurrence of the earthquakes. More than hundreds of case studies show that before the occurrence of the earthquakes the atmospheric temperature increases and suddenly drops before the occurrence of the earthquakes. These changes are being monitored by using Sun Observatory Heliospheric observatory

  19. Earthquake prediction in Japan and natural time analysis of seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uyeda, S.; Varotsos, P.

    2011-12-01

    M9 super-giant earthquake with huge tsunami devastated East Japan on 11 March, causing more than 20,000 casualties and serious damage of Fukushima nuclear plant. This earthquake was predicted neither short-term nor long-term. Seismologists were shocked because it was not even considered possible to happen at the East Japan subduction zone. However, it was not the only un-predicted earthquake. In fact, throughout several decades of the National Earthquake Prediction Project, not even a single earthquake was predicted. In reality, practically no effective research has been conducted for the most important short-term prediction. This happened because the Japanese National Project was devoted for construction of elaborate seismic networks, which was not the best way for short-term prediction. After the Kobe disaster, in order to parry the mounting criticism on their no success history, they defiantly changed their policy to "stop aiming at short-term prediction because it is impossible and concentrate resources on fundamental research", that meant to obtain "more funding for no prediction research". The public were and are not informed about this change. Obviously earthquake prediction would be possible only when reliable precursory phenomena are caught and we have insisted this would be done most likely through non-seismic means such as geochemical/hydrological and electromagnetic monitoring. Admittedly, the lack of convincing precursors for the M9 super-giant earthquake has adverse effect for us, although its epicenter was far out off shore of the range of operating monitoring systems. In this presentation, we show a new possibility of finding remarkable precursory signals, ironically, from ordinary seismological catalogs. In the frame of the new time domain termed natural time, an order parameter of seismicity, κ1, has been introduced. This is the variance of natural time kai weighted by normalised energy release at χ. In the case that Seismic Electric Signals

  20. Three attempts of earthquake prediction with satellite cloud images

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Guangmeng

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Thermal anomalies detected from satellite data are widely reported. Nearly all the anomalies are reported after the quake. Here we report three earthquake predictions in Italy and Iran according to satellite cloud anomalies. These cloud anomalies usually show a linear pattern, stay there for hours and do not move with winds. According to these anomalies, we can give a rough estimation about impending earthquake activities. All the estimated dates and magnitudes are in good agreement with the earthquake facts, and the only unsatisfactory point is that the distance error is 100–300 km. Because the cloud anomaly is long, we can not reduce the distance error further. A possible way is to combine geophysical data and satellite data together to estimate the epicenter and this will increase the prediction accuracy.

  1. Operational Earthquake Forecasting and Earthquake Early Warning: The Challenges of Introducing Scientific Innovations for Public Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goltz, J. D.

    2016-12-01

    Although variants of both earthquake early warning and short-term operational earthquake forecasting systems have been implemented or are now being implemented in some regions and nations, they have been slow to gain acceptance within the disciplines that produced them as well as among those for whom they were intended to assist. To accelerate the development and implementation of these technologies will require the cooperation and collaboration of multiple disciplines, some inside and others outside of academia. Seismologists, social scientists, emergency managers, elected officials and key opinion leaders from the media and public must be the participants in this process. Representatives of these groups come from both inside and outside of academia and represent very different organizational cultures, backgrounds and expectations for these systems, sometimes leading to serious disagreements and impediments to further development and implementation. This presentation will focus on examples of the emergence of earthquake early warning and operational earthquake forecasting systems in California, Japan and other regions and document the challenges confronted in the ongoing effort to improve seismic safety.

  2. An integrated earthquake early warning system and its performance at schools in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Bing-Ru; Hsiao, Nai-Chi; Lin, Pei-Yang; Hsu, Ting-Yu; Chen, Chiou-Yun; Huang, Shieh-Kung; Chiang, Hung-Wei

    2017-01-01

    An earthquake early warning (EEW) system with integration of regional and onsite approaches was installed at nine demonstration stations in several districts of Taiwan for taking advantages of both approaches. The system performance was evaluated by a 3-year experiment at schools, which experienced five major earthquakes during this period. The blind zone of warning was effectively reduced by the integrated EEW system. The predicted intensities from EEW demonstration stations showed acceptable accuracy compared to field observations. The operation experience from an earthquake event proved that students could calmly carry out correct action before the seismic wave arrived using some warning time provided by the EEW system. Through successful operation in practice, the integrated EEW system was verified as an effective tool for disaster prevention at schools.

  3. Rapid Earthquake Magnitude Estimation for Early Warning Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, Dara; Bock, Yehuda; Melgar, Diego

    2017-04-01

    Earthquake magnitude is a concise metric that provides invaluable information about the destructive potential of a seismic event. Rapid estimation of magnitude for earthquake and tsunami early warning purposes requires reliance on near-field instrumentation. For large magnitude events, ground motions can exceed the dynamic range of near-field broadband seismic instrumentation (clipping). Strong motion accelerometers are designed with low gains to better capture strong shaking. Estimating earthquake magnitude rapidly from near-source strong-motion data requires integration of acceleration waveforms to displacement. However, integration amplifies small errors, creating unphysical drift that must be eliminated with a high pass filter. The loss of the long period information due to filtering is an impediment to magnitude estimation in real-time; the relation between ground motion measured with strong-motion instrumentation and magnitude saturates, leading to underestimation of earthquake magnitude. Using station displacements from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations, we can supplement the high frequency information recorded by traditional seismic systems with long-period observations to better inform rapid response. Unlike seismic-only instrumentation, ground motions measured with GNSS scale with magnitude without saturation [Crowell et al., 2013; Melgar et al., 2015]. We refine the current magnitude scaling relations using peak ground displacement (PGD) by adding a large GNSS dataset of earthquakes in Japan. Because it does not suffer from saturation, GNSS alone has significant advantages over seismic-only instrumentation for rapid magnitude estimation of large events. The earthquake's magnitude can be estimated within 2-3 minutes of earthquake onset time [Melgar et al., 2013]. We demonstrate that seismogeodesy, the optimal combination of GNSS and seismic data at collocated stations, provides the added benefit of improving the sensitivity of

  4. Three Millennia of Seemingly Time-Predictable Earthquakes, Tell Ateret

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agnon, Amotz; Marco, Shmuel; Ellenblum, Ronnie

    2014-05-01

    Among various idealized recurrence models of large earthquakes, the "time-predictable" model has a straightforward mechanical interpretation, consistent with simple friction laws. On a time-predictable fault, the time interval between an earthquake and its predecessor is proportional to the slip during the predecessor. The alternative "slip-predictable" model states that the slip during earthquake rupture is proportional to the preceding time interval. Verifying these models requires extended records of high precision data for both timing and amount of slip. The precision of paleoearthquake data can rarely confirm or rule out predictability, and recent papers argue for either time- or slip-predictable behavior. The Ateret site, on the trace of the Dead Sea fault at the Jordan Gorge segment, offers unique precision for determining space-time patterns. Five consecutive slip events, each associated with deformed and offset sets of walls, are correlated with historical earthquakes. Two correlations are based on detailed archaeological, historical, and numismatic evidence. The other three are tentative. The offsets of three of the events are determined with high precision; the other two are not as certain. Accepting all five correlations, the fault exhibits a striking time-predictable behavior, with a long term slip rate of 3 mm/yr. However, the 30 October 1759 ~0.5 m rupture predicts a subsequent rupture along the Jordan Gorge toward the end of the last century. We speculate that earthquakres on secondary faults (the 25 November 1759 on the Rachaya branch and the 1 January 1837 on the Roum branch, both M≥7) have disrupted the 3 kyr time-predictable pattern.

  5. Earthquake Drill using the Earthquake Early Warning System at an Elementary School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oki, Satoko; Yazaki, Yoshiaki; Koketsu, Kazuki

    2010-05-01

    economic repercussion. We provide the school kids with the "World Seismicity Map" to let them realize that earthquake disasters take place unequally. Then we let the kids jump in front of the seismometer with projecting the real-time data to the wall. Grouped kids contest the largest amplitude by carefully considering how to jump high but nail the landing with their teammates. Their jumps are printed out via portable printer and compared with the real earthquake which occurred even 600km away but still huge when printed out in the same scale. Actually, a magnitude 7 earthquake recorded 600km away needs an A0 paper when scaled with a jump of 10 kids printed in an A4 paper. They've got to understand what to do not to be killed with the great big energy. We also offer earthquake drills using the Earthquake Early Warning System (EEW System). An EEW System is officially introduced in 2007 by JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) to issue prompt alerts to provide several to several ten seconds before S-wave arrives. When hearing the alarm, school kids think fast to find a place to protect themselves. It is not always when they are in their classrooms but in the chemical lab, music room which does not have any desks to protect them, or in the PE class. Then in the science class, we demonstrate how the EEW System works. A 8m long wave propagation device made with spindles connected with springs is used to visualize the P- and S-waves. In the presentation, we would like to show the paper materials and sufficient movies.

  6. 75 FR 63854 - National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-18

    ... Geological Survey National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) Advisory Committee AGENCY: U.S... Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) will hold a 2-day meeting on November 3 and 4, 2010. The... the Director of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) on proposed earthquake predictions, on the...

  7. Analysing earthquake slip models with the spatial prediction comparison test

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, L.

    2014-11-10

    Earthquake rupture models inferred from inversions of geophysical and/or geodetic data exhibit remarkable variability due to uncertainties in modelling assumptions, the use of different inversion algorithms, or variations in data selection and data processing. A robust statistical comparison of different rupture models obtained for a single earthquake is needed to quantify the intra-event variability, both for benchmark exercises and for real earthquakes. The same approach may be useful to characterize (dis-)similarities in events that are typically grouped into a common class of events (e.g. moderate-size crustal strike-slip earthquakes or tsunamigenic large subduction earthquakes). For this purpose, we examine the performance of the spatial prediction comparison test (SPCT), a statistical test developed to compare spatial (random) fields by means of a chosen loss function that describes an error relation between a 2-D field (‘model’) and a reference model. We implement and calibrate the SPCT approach for a suite of synthetic 2-D slip distributions, generated as spatial random fields with various characteristics, and then apply the method to results of a benchmark inversion exercise with known solution. We find the SPCT to be sensitive to different spatial correlations lengths, and different heterogeneity levels of the slip distributions. The SPCT approach proves to be a simple and effective tool for ranking the slip models with respect to a reference model.

  8. Early Prediction of Preeclampsia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leona C. Poon

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Effective screening for the development of early onset preeclampsia (PE can be provided in the first-trimester of pregnancy. Screening by a combination of maternal risk factors, uterine artery Doppler, mean arterial pressure, maternal serum pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A, and placental growth factor can identify about 95% of cases of early onset PE for a false-positive rate of 10%.

  9. A P-wave based, on-site method for Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zollo, Aldo

    2016-04-01

    Can we rapidly predict the potential damage of earthquakes by-passing the estimation of its location and magnitude? One possible approach is to predict the expected peak ground shaking at the site and the earthquake magnitude from the initial P-peak amplitude and characteristic period, respectively. The idea, first developed by Wu and Kanamori (2005), is to combine the two parameters for declaring the alert once the real-time measured quantities have passed pre-defined thresholds. Our proposed on-site early warning method generalized this approach, based on the analysis of strong motion data from modern accelerograph networks in Japan, Taiwan and Italy (Zollo et al., 2010). It is based on the real-time measurement of the period (τc) and peak displacement (Pd) parameters at one or more co-located stations at a given target site to be protected against the earthquake effects. By converting these real-time proxies in predicted values of Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) or instrumental intensity (IMM) and magnitude, an alert level is issued at the recording site based on a decisional table with four entries defined upon threshold values of the parameters Pd and Tc. The latter ones are set according to the error bounds estimated on the derived prediction equations. A near-source network of stations running the onsite method can provide the event location and transmit the information about the alert levels recorded at near-source stations to more distant sites, before the arrival of the most destructive phase. The network-based approach allows for the rapid and robust estimation of the Potential Damage Zone (PDZ), that is the area where most of earthquake damage is expected (Colombelli et al., 2012). A new strategy for a P-wave based, on-site earthquake early warning system has been developed and tested on Japanese strong motion data and under testing on Italian data. The key elements are the real-time, continuous measurement of three peak amplitude parameters and their

  10. Tsunami Prediction and Earthquake Parameters Estimation in the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Sawlan, Zaid A

    2012-12-01

    Tsunami concerns have increased in the world after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. Consequently, tsunami models have been developed rapidly in the last few years. One of the advanced tsunami models is the GeoClaw tsunami model introduced by LeVeque (2011). This model is adaptive and consistent. Because of different sources of uncertainties in the model, observations are needed to improve model prediction through a data assimilation framework. Model inputs are earthquake parameters and topography. This thesis introduces a real-time tsunami forecasting method that combines tsunami model with observations using a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble Kalman smoother. The filter is used for state prediction while the smoother operates smoothing to estimate the earthquake parameters. This method reduces the error produced by uncertain inputs. In addition, state-parameter EnKF is implemented to estimate earthquake parameters. Although number of observations is small, estimated parameters generates a better tsunami prediction than the model. Methods and results of prediction experiments in the Red Sea are presented and the prospect of developing an operational tsunami prediction system in the Red Sea is discussed.

  11. Earthquake Early Warning Beta Users: Java, Modeling, and Mobile Apps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strauss, J. A.; Vinci, M.; Steele, W. P.; Allen, R. M.; Hellweg, M.

    2014-12-01

    Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) is a system that can provide a few to tens of seconds warning prior to ground shaking at a user's location. The goal and purpose of such a system is to reduce, or minimize, the damage, costs, and casualties resulting from an earthquake. A demonstration earthquake early warning system (ShakeAlert) is undergoing testing in the United States by the UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, Caltech, ETH Zurich, University of Washington, the USGS, and beta users in California and the Pacific Northwest. The beta users receive earthquake information very rapidly in real-time and are providing feedback on their experiences of performance and potential uses within their organization. Beta user interactions allow the ShakeAlert team to discern: which alert delivery options are most effective, what changes would make the UserDisplay more useful in a pre-disaster situation, and most importantly, what actions users plan to take for various scenarios. Actions could include: personal safety approaches, such as drop cover, and hold on; automated processes and procedures, such as opening elevator or fire stations doors; or situational awareness. Users are beginning to determine which policy and technological changes may need to be enacted, and funding requirements to implement their automated controls. The use of models and mobile apps are beginning to augment the basic Java desktop applet. Modeling allows beta users to test their early warning responses against various scenarios without having to wait for a real event. Mobile apps are also changing the possible response landscape, providing other avenues for people to receive information. All of these combine to improve business continuity and resiliency.

  12. Foreshocks Are Not Predictive of Future Earthquake Size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Page, M. T.; Felzer, K. R.; Michael, A. J.

    2014-12-01

    The standard model for the origin of foreshocks is that they are earthquakes that trigger aftershocks larger than themselves (Reasenberg and Jones, 1989). This can be formally expressed in terms of a cascade model. In this model, aftershock magnitudes follow the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency distribution, regardless of the size of the triggering earthquake, and aftershock timing and productivity follow Omori-Utsu scaling. An alternative hypothesis is that foreshocks are triggered incidentally by a nucleation process, such as pre-slip, that scales with mainshock size. If this were the case, foreshocks would potentially have predictive power of the mainshock magnitude. A number of predictions can be made from the cascade model, including the fraction of earthquakes that are foreshocks to larger events, the distribution of differences between foreshock and mainshock magnitudes, and the distribution of time lags between foreshocks and mainshocks. The last should follow the inverse Omori law, which will cause the appearance of an accelerating seismicity rate if multiple foreshock sequences are stacked (Helmstetter and Sornette, 2003). All of these predictions are consistent with observations (Helmstetter and Sornette, 2003; Felzer et al. 2004). If foreshocks were to scale with mainshock size, this would be strong evidence against the cascade model. Recently, Bouchon et al. (2013) claimed that the expected acceleration in stacked foreshock sequences before interplate earthquakes is higher prior to M≥6.5 mainshocks than smaller mainshocks. Our re-analysis fails to support the statistical significance of their results. In particular, we find that their catalogs are not complete to the level assumed, and their ETAS model underestimates inverse Omori behavior. To conclude, seismicity data to date is consistent with the hypothesis that the nucleation process is the same for earthquakes of all sizes.

  13. Except in Highly Idealized Cases, Repeating Earthquakes and Laboratory Earthquakes are Neither Time- nor Slip-Predictable

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubinstein, J. L.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Beeler, N. M.; Chen, K. H.; Lockner, D. A.; Uchida, N.

    2010-12-01

    Sequences of repeating earthquakes in California, Taiwan and Japan are characterized by interevent times that are more regular than expected from a Poisson process, and are better described by a 2-parameter renewal model (mean rate and variability) of independent and identically distributed intervals that only depends on the time of the last event. Using precise measurements of the relative size of earthquakes in each repeating earthquake family we examine the additional predictive power of the time- and slip-predictable models. We find that neither model offers statistically significant predictive power over a renewal model. In a highly idealized laboratory system, we find that earthquakes are both time- and slip-predictable, but with the addition of a small amount of the complexity (e.g., an uneven fault surface) the time- and slip-predictable models offer little or no advantage over a much simpler renewal model that has constant slip or constant recurrence intervals. Given that repeating natural and laboratory earthquakes are not well explained by either time- or slip-predictability, we conclude that these models are too idealized to explain the recurrence behavior of natural earthquakes. These models likely fail because their key assumptions (1 -- constant loading rate, 2 -- constant failure threshold OR constant final stress, and 3 - the fault is locked throughout the loading cycle) are too idealized to apply in a complex, natural system. While the time- and slip-predictable models do not appear to work for natural earthquakes, we do note that moment (slip) scales with recurrence time according to the mean magnitude of each repeating earthquake family in Parkfield, CA, but not in the other locations. While earthquake size and recurrence time are related in Parkfield, the simplest slip-predictable model still doesn’t work because fitting a linear trend to the data predicts a non-zero earthquake size at instantaneous recurrence time. This scaling, its presence

  14. A METHOD DEVELOPED FOR PREDICTING POTENTIAL PRECURSORS OF EARTHQUAKES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    This paper describes the methodology used to eliminate environmental effects to a time series of short distance(24 m) leveling across a geological fault in order to detect potential precursors of earthquakes from the residual time series. First, linear trends and periodic signals are removed from the observations with the help of a recursive least squares method. Then, a controlled autoregression model is used to predict the enviromnental contribution due to precipitation and evaporation. The difference between the leveling data andthese predictions are considered to be due to endogenic crustal processes. Applying this methodology to leveling data of approximately 13 years at Niukouyu crustal deformation station near Beijing reveals an anomalous deformation before the Tangshan earthquake (M7.8),which has its epicenter about 180 km from the survey site. However, in the time period considered, another anomaly occurred which cannot be related directly to a seismic event.

  15. Earthquake Early Warning: A Prospective User's Perspective (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishenko, S. P.; Savage, W. U.; Johnson, T.

    2009-12-01

    With more than 25 million people at risk from high hazard faults in California alone, Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) presents a promising public safety and emergency response tool. EEW represents the real-time end of an earthquake information spectrum which also includes near real-time notifications of earthquake location, magnitude, and shaking levels; as well as geographic information system (GIS)-based products for compiling and visually displaying processed earthquake data such as ShakeMap and ShakeCast. Improvements to and increased multi-national implementation of EEW have stimulated interest in how such information products could be used in the future. Lifeline organizations, consisting of utilities and transportation systems, can use both onsite and regional EEW information as part of their risk management and public safety programs. Regional EEW information can provide improved situational awareness to system operators before automatic system protection devices activate, and allow trained personnel to take precautionary measures. On-site EEW is used for earthquake-actuated automatic gas shutoff valves, triggered garage door openers at fire stations, system controls, etc. While there is no public policy framework for preemptive, precautionary electricity or gas service shutdowns by utilities in the United States, gas shut-off devices are being required at the building owner level by some local governments. In the transportation sector, high-speed rail systems have already demonstrated the ‘proof of concept’ for EEW in several countries, and more EEW systems are being installed. Recently the Bay Area Rapid Transit District (BART) began collaborating with the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) and others to assess the potential benefits of EEW technology to mass transit operations and emergency response in the San Francisco Bay region. A key issue in this assessment is that significant earthquakes are likely to occur close to or within the BART

  16. Research of prediction for mine earthquake basing on underground rock's movement and deformation mechanism

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Yong-jing

    2008-01-01

    Movement and deformation of underground rock include vertical dislocation and horizontal deformation, and the energy released by mine earthquake can be calculated basing on deformation energy. So put forwards the prediction for degree and spread of mine earthquake according to the underground rock's movement and deformation. The actual number of times and spread of mine earthquake on site were greatly identical to the prediction. The practice proves the possibility of prediction for mine earthquake basing on the analysis of underground rock's movement and deformation, and sets up new approach of mine earthquake prediction.

  17. Research of prediction for mine earthquake basing on underground rock's movement and deformation mechanism

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Yong-jing

    2008-01-01

    Movement and deformation of underground rock include vertical dislocation and horizontal deformation,and the energy released by mine earthquake can be calculated basing on deformation energy.So put forwards the prediction for degree and spread of mine earthquake according to the underground rock's movement and deformation.The actual number of times and spread of mine earthquake on site were greatly identical to the prediction.The practice proves the possibility of prediction for mine earthquake basing on the analysis of underground rock's movement and deformation,and sets up new approach of mine earthquake prediction.

  18. Stratigraphic evidence for an early Holocene earthquake in Aceh, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grand Pre, Candace A.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Kelsey, Harvey M.; Rubin, Charles M.; Hawkes, Andrea D.; Daryono, Mudrik R.; Rosenberg, Gary; Culver, Stephen J.

    2012-10-01

    The Holocene stratigraphy of the coastal plain of the Aceh Province of Sumatra contains 6 m of sediment with three regionally consistent buried soils above pre-Quaternary bedrock or pre-Holocene unconsolidated sediment. Litho-, bio-, and chronostratigraphic analyses of the lower buried soil reveals a rapid change in relative sea-level caused by coseismic subsidence during an early Holocene megathrust earthquake. Evidence for paleoseismic subsidence is preserved as a buried mangrove soil, dominated by a pollen assemblage of Rhizophora and/or Bruguiera/Ceriops taxa. The soil is abruptly overlain by a thin tsunami sand. The sand contains mixed pollen and abraded foraminiferal assemblages of both offshore and onshore environments. The tsunami sand grades upward into mud that contains both well-preserved foraminifera of intertidal origin and individuals of the gastropod Cerithidea cingulata. Radiocarbon ages from the pre- and post-seismic sedimentary sequences constrain the paleoearthquake to 6500-7000 cal. yrs. BP. We use micro-and macrofossil data to determine the local paleoenvironment before and after the earthquake. We estimate coseismic subsidence to be 0.45 ± 0.30 m, which is comparable to the 0.6 m of subsidence observed during the 2004 Aceh-Andaman earthquake on Aceh's west coast.

  19. Benefits of Earthquake Early Warning to Large Municipalities (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Featherstone, J.

    2013-12-01

    The City of Los Angeles has been involved in the testing of the Cal Tech Shake Alert, Earthquake Early Warning (EQEW) system, since February 2012. This system accesses a network of seismic monitors installed throughout California. The system analyzes and processes seismic information, and transmits a warning (audible and visual) when an earthquake occurs. In late 2011, the City of Los Angeles Emergency Management Department (EMD) was approached by Cal Tech regarding EQEW, and immediately recognized the value of the system. Simultaneously, EMD was in the process of finalizing a report by a multi-discipline team that visited Japan in December 2011, which spoke to the effectiveness of EQEW for the March 11, 2011 earthquake that struck that country. Information collected by the team confirmed that the EQEW systems proved to be very effective in alerting the population of the impending earthquake. The EQEW in Japan is also tied to mechanical safeguards, such as the stopping of high-speed trains. For a city the size and complexity of Los Angeles, the implementation of a reliable EQEW system will save lives, reduce loss, ensure effective and rapid emergency response, and will greatly enhance the ability of the region to recovery from a damaging earthquake. The current Shake Alert system is being tested at several governmental organizations and private businesses in the region. EMD, in cooperation with Cal Tech, identified several locations internal to the City where the system would have an immediate benefit. These include the staff offices within EMD, the Los Angeles Police Department's Real Time Analysis and Critical Response Division (24 hour crime center), and the Los Angeles Fire Department's Metropolitan Fire Communications (911 Dispatch). All three of these agencies routinely manage the collaboration and coordination of citywide emergency information and response during times of crisis. Having these three key public safety offices connected and included in the

  20. CISN ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System Monitoring Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henson, I. H.; Allen, R. M.; Neuhauser, D. S.

    2015-12-01

    CISN ShakeAlert is a prototype earthquake early warning system being developed and tested by the California Integrated Seismic Network. The system has recently been expanded to support redundant data processing and communications. It now runs on six machines at three locations with ten Apache ActiveMQ message brokers linking together 18 waveform processors, 12 event association processes and 4 Decision Module alert processes. The system ingests waveform data from about 500 stations and generates many thousands of triggers per day, from which a small portion produce earthquake alerts. We have developed interactive web browser system-monitoring tools that display near real time state-of-health and performance information. This includes station availability, trigger statistics, communication and alert latencies. Connections to regional earthquake catalogs provide a rapid assessment of the Decision Module hypocenter accuracy. Historical performance can be evaluated, including statistics for hypocenter and origin time accuracy and alert time latencies for different time periods, magnitude ranges and geographic regions. For the ElarmS event associator, individual earthquake processing histories can be examined, including details of the transmission and processing latencies associated with individual P-wave triggers. Individual station trigger and latency statistics are available. Detailed information about the ElarmS trigger association process for both alerted events and rejected events is also available. The Google Web Toolkit and Map API have been used to develop interactive web pages that link tabular and geographic information. Statistical analysis is provided by the R-Statistics System linked to a PostgreSQL database.

  1. Multi-Use Seismic Stations for Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, T.; Townsend, B.; Moores, A. O.; Bainbridge, G. S.; Easton, D.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquake Early Warning network performance improves with the number and density of sensing stations, quality of the sites, quality of strong-motion instrumentation, degree of coverage near at-risk populated areas and potential fault zones, and minimizing latency of signal processing and transmission. Seismic research tends to emphasize competing requirements: low-noise sites, high-performance broadband seismic instrumentation, and high-quality signal processing without regard for latency. Recent advances in instrumentation and processing techniques have made feasible the concept of a multi-use seismic station in which strong-motion and weak-motion seismometry are both cost-effectively served without compromising the performance demands of either. We present a concept for a multi-use seismic station that cost-effectively meets the needs of both earthquake early warning and high-quality seismic research. One significant enabler is a 6-channel dual-sensor instrument that combines a 120s broadband seismometer and a class A accelerometer in a single ultra-compact sonde suitable for direct burial. Combining two sensors into one effectively adds broadband capability to a station without increasing the already optimized site footprint, preparation and management costs associated with shallow direct-burial installations. The combined sensors also complement each other, simplifying and speeding installation (for example, the accelerometer provides real-time tilt readings useful to leveling the seismometer). Integration simplifies alignment to North, as there is only one instrument to orient. A dual-use 6-channel digitizer simultaneously provides two sets of independently processed streams from both sensors, one set optimized for low-latency earthquake warning, and the other set for high quality seismic research purposes. Such a dual-use seismic station can serve both seismic research and civil warning infrastructure objectives without adding significantly to the cost of a

  2. Feasibility study of earthquake early warning (EEW) in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thelen, Weston A.; Hotovec-Ellis, Alicia J.; Bodin, Paul

    2016-09-30

    The effects of earthquake shaking on the population and infrastructure across the State of Hawaii could be catastrophic, and the high seismic hazard in the region emphasizes the likelihood of such an event. Earthquake early warning (EEW) has the potential to give several seconds of warning before strong shaking starts, and thus reduce loss of life and damage to property. The two approaches to EEW are (1) a network approach (such as ShakeAlert or ElarmS) where the regional seismic network is used to detect the earthquake and distribute the alarm and (2) a local approach where a critical facility has a single seismometer (or small array) and a warning system on the premises.The network approach, also referred to here as ShakeAlert or ElarmS, uses the closest stations within a regional seismic network to detect and characterize an earthquake. Most parameters used for a network approach require observations on multiple stations (typically 3 or 4), which slows down the alarm time slightly, but the alarms are generally more reliable than with single-station EEW approaches. The network approach also benefits from having stations closer to the source of any potentially damaging earthquake, so that alarms can be sent ahead to anyone who subscribes to receive the notification. Thus, a fully implemented ShakeAlert system can provide seconds of warning for both critical facilities and general populations ahead of damaging earthquake shaking.The cost to implement and maintain a fully operational ShakeAlert system is high compared to a local approach or single-station solution, but the benefits of a ShakeAlert system would be felt statewide—the warning times for strong shaking are potentially longer for most sources at most locations.The local approach, referred to herein as “single station,” uses measurements from a single seismometer to assess whether strong earthquake shaking can be expected. Because of the reliance on a single station, false alarms are more common than

  3. Possibility of Earthquake-prediction by analyzing VLF signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, Suman; Chakrabarti, Sandip Kumar; Sasmal, Sudipta

    2016-07-01

    Prediction of seismic events is one of the most challenging jobs for the scientific community. Conventional ways for prediction of earthquakes are to monitor crustal structure movements, though this method has not yet yield satisfactory results. Furthermore, this method fails to give any short-term prediction. Recently, it is noticed that prior to any seismic event a huge amount of energy is released which may create disturbances in the lower part of D-layer/E-layer of the ionosphere. This ionospheric disturbance may be used as a precursor of earthquakes. Since VLF radio waves propagate inside the wave-guide formed by lower ionosphere and Earth's surface, this signal may be used to identify ionospheric disturbances due to seismic activity. We have analyzed VLF signals to find out the correlations, if any, between the VLF signal anomalies and seismic activities. We have done both the case by case study and also the statistical analysis using a whole year data. In both the methods we found that the night time amplitude of VLF signals fluctuated anomalously three days before the seismic events. Also we found that the terminator time of the VLF signals shifted anomalously towards night time before few days of any major seismic events. We calculate the D-layer preparation time and D-layer disappearance time from the VLF signals. We have observed that this D-layer preparation time and D-layer disappearance time become anomalously high 1-2 days before seismic events. Also we found some strong evidences which indicate that it may possible to predict the location of epicenters of earthquakes in future by analyzing VLF signals for multiple propagation paths.

  4. Future of Earthquake Early Warning: Quantifying Uncertainty and Making Fast Automated Decisions for Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Stephen

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications. Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake. To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that

  5. Method to Determine Appropriate Source Models of Large Earthquakes Including Tsunami Earthquakes for Tsunami Early Warning in Central America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanioka, Yuichiro; Miranda, Greyving Jose Arguello; Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Fujii, Yushiro

    2017-08-01

    Large earthquakes, such as the Mw 7.7 1992 Nicaragua earthquake, have occurred off the Pacific coasts of El Salvador and Nicaragua in Central America and have generated distractive tsunamis along these coasts. It is necessary to determine appropriate fault models before large tsunamis hit the coast. In this study, first, fault parameters were estimated from the W-phase inversion, and then an appropriate fault model was determined from the fault parameters and scaling relationships with a depth dependent rigidity. The method was tested for four large earthquakes, the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2001 El Salvador earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2004 El Astillero earthquake (Mw7.0), and the 2012 El Salvador-Nicaragua earthquake (Mw7.3), which occurred off El Salvador and Nicaragua in Central America. The tsunami numerical simulations were carried out from the determined fault models. We found that the observed tsunami heights, run-up heights, and inundation areas were reasonably well explained by the computed ones. Therefore, our method for tsunami early warning purpose should work to estimate a fault model which reproduces tsunami heights near the coast of El Salvador and Nicaragua due to large earthquakes in the subduction zone.

  6. Reported geomagnetic and ionospheric precursors to earthquakes: Summary, reanalysis, and implications for short-term prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, J. N.; Masci, F.; Love, J. J.; Johnston, M. J.

    2012-12-01

    Earthquakes are one of the most devastating natural phenomena on earth, causing high deaths tolls and large financial losses each year. If precursory signals could be regularly and reliably identified, then the hazardous effects of earthquakes might be mitigated. Unfortunately, it is not at all clear that short-term earthquake prediction is either possible or practical, and the entire subject remains controversial. Still, many claims of successful earthquake precursor observations have been published, and among these are reports of geomagnetic and ionospheric anomalies prior to earthquake occurrence. Given the importance of earthquake prediction, reports of earthquake precursors need to be analyzed and checked for reliability and reproducibility. We have done this for numerous such reports, including the Loma Prieta, Guam, Hector Mine, Tohoku, and L'Aquila earthquakes. We have found that these reported earthquake precursors: 1) often lack time series observations from long before and long after the earthquakes and near and far from the earthquakes, 2) are not statistically correlated with the earthquakes and do not relate to the earthquake source mechanisms, 3) are not followed by similar, but much larger, signals during the subsequent earthquake when the primary energy release occurs, 4) are nonuniform in that they occur at different spatial and temporal regimes relative to the earthquakes and with different magnitudes and frequencies, and 5) can often be explained by other non-earthquake related mechanisms or normal geomagnetic activity. Thus we conclude that these reported precursors could not be used to predict the time or location of the earthquakes. Based on our findings, we suggest a protocol for examining precursory reports, something that will help guide future research in this area.

  7. Feasibility study of earthquake early warning (EEW) in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thelen, Weston A.; Hotovec-Ellis, Alicia J.; Bodin, Paul

    2016-09-30

    The effects of earthquake shaking on the population and infrastructure across the State of Hawaii could be catastrophic, and the high seismic hazard in the region emphasizes the likelihood of such an event. Earthquake early warning (EEW) has the potential to give several seconds of warning before strong shaking starts, and thus reduce loss of life and damage to property. The two approaches to EEW are (1) a network approach (such as ShakeAlert or ElarmS) where the regional seismic network is used to detect the earthquake and distribute the alarm and (2) a local approach where a critical facility has a single seismometer (or small array) and a warning system on the premises.The network approach, also referred to here as ShakeAlert or ElarmS, uses the closest stations within a regional seismic network to detect and characterize an earthquake. Most parameters used for a network approach require observations on multiple stations (typically 3 or 4), which slows down the alarm time slightly, but the alarms are generally more reliable than with single-station EEW approaches. The network approach also benefits from having stations closer to the source of any potentially damaging earthquake, so that alarms can be sent ahead to anyone who subscribes to receive the notification. Thus, a fully implemented ShakeAlert system can provide seconds of warning for both critical facilities and general populations ahead of damaging earthquake shaking.The cost to implement and maintain a fully operational ShakeAlert system is high compared to a local approach or single-station solution, but the benefits of a ShakeAlert system would be felt statewide—the warning times for strong shaking are potentially longer for most sources at most locations.The local approach, referred to herein as “single station,” uses measurements from a single seismometer to assess whether strong earthquake shaking can be expected. Because of the reliance on a single station, false alarms are more common than

  8. Prediction of the date, magnitude and affected area of impending strong earthquakes using integration of multi precursors earthquake parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. Saradjian

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Usually a precursor alone might not be useful as an accurate, precise, and stand-alone criteria for the earthquake parameters prediction. Therefore it is more appropriate to exploit parameters extracted from a variety of individual precursors so that their simultaneous integration would reduce the parameters's uncertainty.

    In our previous studies, five strong earthquakes which happened in the Samoa Islands, Sichuan (China, L'Aquila (Italy, Borujerd (Iran and Zarand (Iran have been analyzed to locate unusual variations in the time series of the different earthquake precursors. In this study, we have attempted to estimate earthquake parameters using the detected anomalies in the mentioned case studies.

    Using remote sensing observations, this study examines variations of electron and ion density, electron temperature, total electron content (TEC, electric and magnetic fields and land surface temperature (LST several days before the studied earthquakes. Regarding the ionospheric precursors, the geomagnetic indices Dst and Kp were used to distinguish pre-earthquake disturbed states from the other anomalies related to the geomagnetic activities.

    The inter-quartile range of data was utilized to construct their upper and lower bound to detect disturbed states outsides the bounds which might be associated with impending earthquakes.

    When the disturbed state associated with an impending earthquake is detected, based on the type of precursor, the number of days relative to the earthquake day is estimated. Then regarding the deviation value of the precursor from the undisturbed state the magnitude of the impending earthquake is estimated. The radius of the affected area is calculated using the estimated magnitude and Dobrovolsky formula.

    In order to assess final earthquake parameters (i.e. date, magnitude and radius of the affected area for each case study, the earthquake

  9. Predicting Ground Motion from Induced Earthquakes in Geothermal Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, J.; Edwards, B.; Convertito, V.; Sharma, N.; Tramelli, A.; Kraaijpoel, D.; Cabrera, B. M.; Maercklin, N.; Troise, C.

    2013-06-01

    Induced seismicity from anthropogenic sources can be a significant nuisance to a local population and in extreme cases lead to damage to vulnerable structures. One type of induced seismicity of particular recent concern, which, in some cases, can limit development of a potentially important clean energy source, is that associated with geothermal power production. A key requirement for the accurate assessment of seismic hazard (and risk) is a ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) that predicts the level of earthquake shaking (in terms of, for example, peak ground acceleration) of an earthquake of a certain magnitude at a particular distance. Few such models currently exist in regard to geothermal-related seismicity, and consequently the evaluation of seismic hazard in the vicinity of geothermal power plants is associated with high uncertainty. Various ground-motion datasets of induced and natural seismicity (from Basel, Geysers, Hengill, Roswinkel, Soultz, and Voerendaal) were compiled and processed, and moment magnitudes for all events were recomputed homogeneously. These data are used to show that ground motions from induced and natural earthquakes cannot be statistically distinguished. Empirical GMPEs are derived from these data; and, although they have similar characteristics to recent GMPEs for natural and mining-related seismicity, the standard deviations are higher. To account for epistemic uncertainties, stochastic models subsequently are developed based on a single corner frequency and with parameters constrained by the available data. Predicted ground motions from these models are fitted with functional forms to obtain easy-to-use GMPEs. These are associated with standard deviations derived from the empirical data to characterize aleatory variability. As an example, we demonstrate the potential use of these models using data from Campi Flegrei.

  10. Consistent CMT solutions from Harvard University before great earthquakes in Kurile Islands and its significance for earthquake prediction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Jun-guo; DIAO Gui-ling

    2005-01-01

    In the paper, we use the Central Moment Tensor (CMT) solution acquired by Harvard University for the earthquakes occurred in Kurile Islands to analyze the consistent focal mechanism in the area and propose the idea of making earthquake prediction based on the consistent parameter a of focal mechanism and stress field. The results from the study indicate that before MW≥7.5 earthquakes, the consistent parameter a decreases, which starts about 10~110 days and ends about 30~2 days before the great earthquakes. Although the phenomenon is not totally the same for individual earthquake, the difference is not large. Certainly, the phenomenon should be tested by time for its reliability. However, it should not be random that the focal mechanism of MW≥5.3 earthquakes are consistent successively with the stress field in an area of several hundreds kilometers in length. It should be a phenomenon of predictive significance. When the accumulated earthquake examples are sufficient, uniform judgment criteria and prediction principles can be stipulated then.

  11. Raising the science awareness of first year undergraduate students via an earthquake prediction seminar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilstrap, T. D.

    2011-12-01

    The public is fascinated with and fearful of natural hazards such as earthquakes. After every major earthquake there is a surge of interest in earthquake science and earthquake prediction. Yet many people do not understand the challenges of earthquake prediction and the need to fund earthquake research. An earthquake prediction seminar is offered to first year undergraduate students to improve their understanding of why earthquakes happen, how earthquake research is done and more specifically why it is so challenging to issue short-term earthquake prediction. Some of these students may become scientists but most will not. For the majority this is an opportunity to learn how science research works and how it is related to policy and society. The seminar is seven weeks long, two hours per week and has been taught every year for the last four years. The material is presented conceptually; there is very little quantitative work involved. The class starts with a field trip to the Randolph College Seismic Station where students learn about seismographs and the different types of seismic waves. Students are then provided with basic background on earthquakes. They learn how to pick arrival times using real seismograms, how to use earthquake catalogues, how to predict the arrival of an earthquake wave at any location on Earth. Next they learn about long, intermediate, short and real time earthquake prediction. Discussions are an essential part of the seminar. Students are challenged to draw their own conclusions on the pros and cons of earthquake prediction. Time is designated to discuss the political and economic impact of earthquake prediction. At the end of the seven weeks students are required to write a paper and discuss the need for earthquake prediction. The class is not focused on the science but rather the links between the science issues and their economical and political impact. Weekly homework assignments are used to aid and assess students' learning. Pre and

  12. Expert System for Earthquake Prediction (ESEP3.0)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Wei; Wu Gengfeng; Zhang Bofeng; Li Shengle; Zheng Zhaobi; Lu Yuanzhong

    2004-01-01

    A brand new expert system for earthquake prediction, called ESEP3.0, was successfullydeveloped recently, in which the fuzzy technology and neural network conception wereincorporated and the steering inference mechanism was introduced. In addition to the functionsof symbol inference and explanation of the first generation of the expert system and theknowledge learning of the second generation, ESEP3.0 has stronger human-machineinteraction function. It consists of knowledge edition, machine learning, steering fuzzyinference engine and synchronous explanation subsystems. In this paper, the components andthe general description of the system are introduced.

  13. Application of support vector machine to synthetic earthquake prediction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chun Jiang; Xueli Wei; Xiaofeng Cui; Dexiang You

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces the method of support vector machine (SVM) into the field of synthetic earthquake prediction, which is a non-linear and complex seismogenic system. As an example, we apply this method to predict the largest annual magnitude for the North China area (30°E-42°E, 108°N-125°N) and the capital region (38°E-41.5°E, 114°N-120°N) on the basis of seismicity parameters and observed precursory data. The corresponding prediction rates for the North China area and the capital region are 64.1% and 75%, respectively, which shows that the method is feasible.

  14. Study of Earthquake Disaster Prediction System of Langfang city Based on GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Meng; Zhang, Dian; Li, Pan; Zhang, YunHui; Zhang, RuoFei

    2017-07-01

    In this paper, according to the status of China’s need to improve the ability of earthquake disaster prevention, this paper puts forward the implementation plan of earthquake disaster prediction system of Langfang city based on GIS. Based on the GIS spatial database, coordinate transformation technology, GIS spatial analysis technology and PHP development technology, the seismic damage factor algorithm is used to predict the damage of the city under different intensity earthquake disaster conditions. The earthquake disaster prediction system of Langfang city is based on the B / S system architecture. Degree and spatial distribution and two-dimensional visualization display, comprehensive query analysis and efficient auxiliary decision-making function to determine the weak earthquake in the city and rapid warning. The system has realized the transformation of the city’s earthquake disaster reduction work from static planning to dynamic management, and improved the city’s earthquake and disaster prevention capability.

  15. Investigations on Real-time GPS for Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grapenthin, R.; Aranha, M. A.; Melgar, D.; Allen, R. M.

    2015-12-01

    The Geodetic Alarm System (G-larmS) is a software system developed in a collaboration between the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory (BSL) and New Mexico Tech (NMT) primarily for real-time Earthquake Early Warning (EEW). It currently uses high rate (1Hz), low latency (inversion on these offsets to determine slip on a finite fault, which we use to estimate moment magnitude. These computations are repeated every second for the duration of the event. G-larmS has been in continuous operation at the BSL for over a year using event triggers from the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) ShakeAlert system and real-time position time series from a fully triangulated network consisting of BARD, PBO and USGS stations across northern California. Pairs of stations are processed as baselines using trackRT (MIT software package). G-larmS produced good results in real-time during the South Napa (M 6.0, August 2014) earthquake as well as on several replayed and simulated test cases. We evaluate the performance of G-larmS for EEW by analysing the results using a set of well defined test cases to investigate the following: (1) using multiple fault regimes and concurrent processing with the ultimate goal of achieving model generation (slip and magnitude computations) within each 1 second GPS epoch on very large magnitude earthquakes (up to M 9.0), (2) the use of Precise Point Positioning (PPP) real-time data streams of various operators, accuracies, latencies and formats along with baseline data streams, (3) collaboratively expanding EEW coverage along the U.S. West Coast on a regional network basis for Northern California, Southern California and Cascadia.

  16. Multi-parameter algorithm for Earthquake Early Warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rakhi Bhardwaj

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Earthquake Early Warning (EEW system is a real-time earthquake damage mitigation system. It detects, analyzes and transmits information of the impending event at the potential user sites. In the present study, an attempt has been made to develop a multi-parameter-based EEW algorithm for accurate and reliable issuance of EEW. In the present study, not only the individual parameters such as maximum predominant period (, average period (τc, peak displacement (Pd, cumulative absolute velocity and root sum of squares cumulative velocity have been used to develop an algorithm but also various combinations have been attempted to issue alarm. The criterion for issuing warning is based on the alarm status of combinations of parameters at nearest four stations within selected epicentral distance of the event. It has been concluded that three parameter preference-based approach provides most efficient results at a time window of 4 s. The data-set for estimating various parameters required for multi-parameter algorithm has been taken from K-NET seismic array (Japan. The algorithm has been validated on the data taken from different regions. Based on the validation carried out using Indian and PEER-NGA database, the results revealed better performance of multi-parametric EEW algorithm.

  17. Magnitude Estimation for the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake Based on Ground Motion Prediction Equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eshaghi, Attieh; Tiampo, Kristy F.; Ghofrani, Hadi; Atkinson, Gail M.

    2015-08-01

    This study investigates whether real-time strong ground motion data from seismic stations could have been used to provide an accurate estimate of the magnitude of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan. Ultimately, such an estimate could be used as input data for a tsunami forecast and would lead to more robust earthquake and tsunami early warning. We collected the strong motion accelerograms recorded by borehole and free-field (surface) Kiban Kyoshin network stations that registered this mega-thrust earthquake in order to perform an off-line test to estimate the magnitude based on ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). GMPEs for peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity (PGV) from a previous study by Eshaghi et al. in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 103. (2013) derived using events with moment magnitude ( M) ≥ 5.0, 1998-2010, were used to estimate the magnitude of this event. We developed new GMPEs using a more complete database (1998-2011), which added only 1 year but approximately twice as much data to the initial catalog (including important large events), to improve the determination of attenuation parameters and magnitude scaling. These new GMPEs were used to estimate the magnitude of the Tohoku-Oki event. The estimates obtained were compared with real time magnitude estimates provided by the existing earthquake early warning system in Japan. Unlike the current operational magnitude estimation methods, our method did not saturate and can provide robust estimates of moment magnitude within ~100 s after earthquake onset for both catalogs. It was found that correcting for average shear-wave velocity in the uppermost 30 m () improved the accuracy of magnitude estimates from surface recordings, particularly for magnitude estimates of PGV (Mpgv). The new GMPEs also were used to estimate the magnitude of all earthquakes in the new catalog with at least 20 records. Results show that the magnitude estimate from PGV values using

  18. Turning the rumor of the May 11, 2011, earthquake prediction in Rome, Italy, into an information day on earthquake hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Concetta Nostro

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available A devastating earthquake was predicted to hit Rome on May 11, 2011. This prediction was never officially released, but it grew on the internet and was amplified by the media. It was erroneously ascribed to Raffaele Bendandi, an Italian self-taught natural scientist who studied planetary motions and related them to earthquakes. Indeed, around May 11, 2011, there was a planetary alignment, and this fed the credibility of the earthquake prediction. During the months preceding May 2011, the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV was overwhelmed with requests for information about this prediction, by the inhabitants of Rome and by tourists. Given the echo of this earthquake prediction, on May 11, 2011, the INGV decided to organize an Open Day at its headquarters in Rome, to inform the public about Italian seismicity and earthquake physics. The Open Day was preceded by a press conference two days before, to talk with journalists about this prediction, and to present the Open Day. During this ‘Day’, 13 new videos were also posted on our YouTube/INGVterremoti channel to explain earthquake processes and hazards, and to provide periodic updates on seismicity in Italy from the seismicity monitoring room. On May 11, 2011, the INGV headquarters was peacefully invaded by over 3,000 visitors, from 10:00 am to 9:00 pm: families, students with and without teachers, civil protection groups, and many journalists. This initiative that was built up in a few weeks has had very large feedback, and was a great opportunity to talk with journalists and people about earthquake prediction, and more in general about the seismic risk in Italy.

  19. An application of earthquake prediction algorithm M8 in eastern Anatolia at the approach of the 2011 Van earthquake

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Masoud Mojarab; Vladimir Kossobokov; Hossein Memarian; Mehdi Zare

    2015-07-01

    On 23rd October 2011, an M7.3 earthquake near the Turkish city of Van, killed more than 600 people, injured over 4000, and left about 60,000 homeless. It demolished hundreds of buildings and caused great damages to thousand others in Van, Ercis, Muradiye, and Çaldıran. The earthquake’s epicenter is located about 70 km from a preceding M7.3 earthquake that occurred in November 1976 and destroyed several villages near the Turkey–Iran border and killed thousands of people. This study, by means of retrospective application of the M8 algorithm, checks to see if the 2011 Van earthquake could have been predicted. The algorithm is based on pattern recognition of Times of Increased Probability (TIP) of a target earthquake from the transient seismic sequence at lower magnitude ranges in a Circle of Investigation (CI). Specifically, we applied a modified M8 algorithm adjusted to a rather low level of earthquake detection in the region following three different approaches to determine seismic transients. In the first approach, CI centers are distributed on intersections of morphostructural lineaments recognized as prone to magnitude 7+ earthquakes. In the second approach, centers of CIs are distributed on local extremes of the seismic density distribution, and in the third approach, CI centers were distributed uniformly on the nodes of a 1°×1° grid. According to the results of the M8 algorithm application, the 2011 Van earthquake could have been predicted in any of the three approaches. We noted that it is possible to consider the intersection of TIPs instead of their union to improve the certainty of the prediction results. Our study confirms the applicability of a modified version of the M8 algorithm for predicting earthquakes at the Iranian–Turkish plateau, as well as for mitigation of damages in seismic events in which pattern recognition algorithms may play an important role.

  20. Rapid Estimation of Macroseismic Intensity for On-site Earthquake Early Warning in Italy from Early Radiated Energ

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emolo, A.; Zollo, A.; Brondi, P.; Picozzi, M.; Mucciarelli, M.

    2015-12-01

    Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS) are effective tools for the risk mitigation in active seismic regions. Recently, a feasibility study of a nation-wide earthquake early warning systems has been conducted for Italy considering the RAN Network and the EEW software platform PRESTo. This work showed that a reliable estimations in terms of magnitude and epicentral localization would be available within 3-4 seconds after the first P-wave arrival. On the other hand, given the RAN's density, a regional EEWS approach would result in a Blind Zone (BZ) of 25-30 km in average. Such BZ dimension would provide lead-times greater than zero only for events having magnitude larger than 6.5. Considering that in Italy also smaller events are capable of generating great losses both in human and economic terms, as dramatically experienced during the recent 2009 L'Aquila (ML 5.9) and 2012 Emilia (ML 5.9) earthquakes, it has become urgent to develop and test on-site approaches. The present study is focused on the development of a new on-site EEW metodology for the estimation of the macroseismic intensity at a target site or area. In this analysis we have used a few thousands of accelerometric traces recorded by RAN related to the largest earthquakes (ML>4) occurred in Italy in the period 1997-2013. The work is focused on the integral EW parameter Squared Velocity Integral (IV2) and on its capability to predict the peak ground velocity PGV and the Housner Intensity IH, as well as from these latters we parameterized a new relation between IV2 and the Macroseismic Intensity. To assess the performance of the developed on-site EEW relation, we used data of the largest events occurred in Italy in the last 6 years recorded by the Osservatorio Sismico delle Strutture, as well as on the recordings of the moderate earthquake reported by INGV Strong Motion Data. The results shows that the macroseismic intensity values predicted by IV2 and the one estimated by PGV and IH are in good agreement.

  1. Rapid and reliable seismic source characterization in earthquake early warning systems: current methodologies, results, and new perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colombelli, Simona; Zollo, Aldo

    2016-10-01

    In the present paper, we provided a review of the main principles and methodologies on which the current earthquake early warning systems are grounded and will also provide a perspective view for next future developments and improvements. First, we introduce the standard methodologies for the source characterization in earthquake early warning, with a special focus on the real-time earthquake magnitude determination. We discuss the suitability of existent methodologies and empirical regression laws for very large events. We then present the different approaches for the rapid prediction of the ground shaking and of the potential damaged zone, both based on traditional seismic data and on the use of continuous GPS data. Finally, the last part of the paper provides the perspective view toward a next generation of early warning systems, linking new research achievements about the earthquake rupture nucleation and the development of new methods/technologies aimed at a fast and high-resolution, real-time modeling of the ongoing source process and accurate prediction of the quake shaking at the regional and local scale.

  2. Optical-Fiber Strainmeters for Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zumberge, M. A.; Agnew, D. C.; Hatfield, W.; Wyatt, F. K.

    2015-12-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) includes two tasks: detecting an earthquake and estimating its size. Detection requires low instrumental noise; estimating the size can be done most simply by estimating the moment from the static (near-field) signal, which does not saturate with magnitude. The usual approach in EEW has been to use inertial sensors (detecting acceleration) for low noise, and GPS (measuring displacement) to determine the static signal. Because a strainmeter can combine low noise and broad frequency response in a single sensor, such systems should also be considered for EEW networks. While borehole strainmeters often do not record the static offset correctly, past results from longbase laser strainmeters (LSM's) show that this can be done reliably if the strain is measured over hundreds of meters. Recent developments in optical fiber LSM's have allowed the construction of low-cost, low-power long-base LSM's with low noise in the frequency band of interest. Digital processing of the interference signal makes possible a flat frequency response from 0 to 100 Hz and a high dynamic range, with the upper limit (strain of 0.1%) set by the tensioning of the fiber. Such instruments can be flexibly sited, including in locations, such as the ocean floor, impracticable for GPS. Application of such instruments to EEW will require further, though straightforward, development of processing methods and installation techniques, as well as testing under conditions of high dynamic strain; additional modeling will be needed to determine the optimal use LSM's in an EEW seismometer/GPS network.

  3. Are Earthquakes Predictable? A Study on Magnitude Correlations in Earthquake Catalog and Experimental Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stavrianaki, K.; Ross, G.; Sammonds, P. R.

    2015-12-01

    The clustering of earthquakes in time and space is widely accepted, however the existence of correlations in earthquake magnitudes is more questionable. In standard models of seismic activity, it is usually assumed that magnitudes are independent and therefore in principle unpredictable. Our work seeks to test this assumption by analysing magnitude correlation between earthquakes and their aftershocks. To separate mainshocks from aftershocks, we perform stochastic declustering based on the widely used Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, which allows us to then compare the average magnitudes of aftershock sequences to that of their mainshock. The results of earthquake magnitude correlations were compared with acoustic emissions (AE) from laboratory analog experiments, as fracturing generates both AE at the laboratory scale and earthquakes on a crustal scale. Constant stress and constant strain rate experiments were done on Darley Dale sandstone under confining pressure to simulate depth of burial. Microcracking activity inside the rock volume was analyzed by the AE technique as a proxy for earthquakes. Applying the ETAS model to experimental data allowed us to validate our results and provide for the first time a holistic view on the correlation of earthquake magnitudes. Additionally we search the relationship between the conditional intensity estimates of the ETAS model and the earthquake magnitudes. A positive relation would suggest the existence of magnitude correlations. The aim of this study is to observe any trends of dependency between the magnitudes of aftershock earthquakes and the earthquakes that trigger them.

  4. Earthquake Early Warning using a Seismogeodetic Approach: An operational plan for Cascadia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowell, B. W.; Bodin, P.; Vidale, J. E.; Schmidt, D. A.; Melbourne, T. I.; Scrivner, C. W.; Santillan, V. M.; Szeliga, W. M.; Minson, S. E.; Bock, Y.; Melgar, D.

    2013-12-01

    We present an operational plan for implementing combined seismic and geodetic time series in an earthquake early warning system for Cascadia. The Cascadian subduction zone presents one of the greatest risks for a megaquake in the continental United States. Ascertaining the full magnitude and extent of large earthquakes is problematic for earthquake early warning systems due to instability when double integrating strong-motion records to ground displacement. This problem can be mitigated by augmenting earthquake early warning systems with real-time GPS data, allowing for the progression and spatial extent of large earthquakes to be better resolved due to GPS's ability to measure both dynamic and permanent displacements. The Pacific Northwest Seismic Network (PNSN) at the University of Washington is implementing an integrated seismogeodetic approach to earthquake early warning. Regional GPS data are provided by the Pacific Northwest Geodetic Array (PANGA) at Central Washington University. Precise Point Positioning (PPP) solutions are sent from PANGA to the PNSN through JSON formatted streams and processed with a Python-based quality control (QC) module. The QC module also ingest accelerations from PNSN seismic stations through the Earthworm seismic acquisition and processing system for the purpose of detecting outliers and Kalman filtering when collocated instruments exist. The QC module outputs time aligned and cleaned displacement waveforms to ActiveMQ, an XML-based messaging broker that is currently used in seismic early warning architecture. Earthquake characterization modules read displacement information from ActiveMQ when triggered by warnings from ElarmS earthquake early warning algorithm. Peak ground displacement and P-wave scaling relationships from Kalman filtered waveforms provide initial magnitude estimates. Additional modules perform more complex source modeling such as centroid moment tensors and slip inversions that characterize the full size and

  5. Seismicity anomalies before the great earthquake of MS=8.1 in the Kunlun Pass and its significance to earthquake prediction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘蒲雄; 郑大林; 车时; 潘怀文; 刘桂萍; 杨立明

    2003-01-01

    A great earthquake of MS=8.1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. The epicenter is located at 36.2(N and 90.90E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e.g., seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of MS=8.1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with MS≥7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of MS=8.1 involves in the larger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and forecasting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes.

  6. From a physical approach to earthquake prediction, towards long and short term warnings ahead of large earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefansson, R.; Bonafede, M.

    2012-04-01

    For 20 years the South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ) was a test site for multinational earthquake prediction research, partly bridging the gap between laboratory tests samples, and the huge transform zones of the Earth. The approach was to explore the physics of processes leading up to large earthquakes. The book Advances in Earthquake Prediction, Research and Risk Mitigation, by R. Stefansson (2011), published by Springer/PRAXIS, and an article in the August issue of the BSSA by Stefansson, M. Bonafede and G. Gudmundsson (2011) contain a good overview of the findings, and more references, as well as examples of partially successful long and short term warnings based on such an approach. Significant findings are: Earthquakes that occurred hundreds of years ago left scars in the crust, expressed in volumes of heterogeneity that demonstrate the size of their faults. Rheology and stress heterogeneity within these volumes are significantly variable in time and space. Crustal processes in and near such faults may be observed by microearthquake information decades before the sudden onset of a new large earthquake. High pressure fluids of mantle origin may in response to strain, especially near plate boundaries, migrate upward into the brittle/elastic crust to play a significant role in modifying crustal conditions on a long and short term. Preparatory processes of various earthquakes can not be expected to be the same. We learn about an impending earthquake by observing long term preparatory processes at the fault, finding a constitutive relationship that governs the processes, and then extrapolating that relationship into near space and future. This is a deterministic approach in earthquake prediction research. Such extrapolations contain many uncertainties. However the long time pattern of observations of the pre-earthquake fault process will help us to put probability constraints on our extrapolations and our warnings. The approach described is different from the usual

  7. Earthquake prediction on boundaries of the Arabian Plate: premonitory chains of small earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaniv, M.; Agnon, A.; Shebalin, P.

    2009-12-01

    The RTP method is a probabilistic prediction method for strong earthquakes (Keilis-Borok et al., 2004). Based on simple pattern recognition algorithms and tuned on historical seismic catalogs, RTP has been running as a prediction in advance experiment since 1997. We present a similar system aimed at improving the algorithm and tuning it to regional catalogs, focusing on the Arabian Plate. RTP is based on recognition of "Earthquake chains", microseismic patterns that capture a rise in activity and in correlation range. A chain is defined as a closed set of "neighbor events" with epicenters and times of occurrences separated by less than a spatial parameter R0 and a temporal parameter τ, respectively. The seismic catalog can be viewed as a non-directional graph, with earthquakes as vertices, neighbor pairs as edges and chains as connected components of the graph. Various algorithms were tried, based on different concepts. Some using graph theory concepts, and others focusing on the data structure in the catalog. All algorithms aim at recognizing neighboring pairs of events, and combining the pairs into chains.They relies on a number of parameters: -Minimum length for a valid chain L0 -Weights for the spatial and temporal thresholds -Target magnitude: the minimum magnitude we aim to predict -Cutoff value: the minimum magnitude to be taken into account The output for an algorithms is a set of chains. The list is filtered for chains longer than L0. The 2D parameter space was mapped. For every pair of R0 and τ three characteristics were calculated: -Number of chains found -Mean number of events in a chain -Mean size (Max distance between events in a chain) of chains Each of these plots as a surface, showing dependance on the parameters R0 and τ. The most recent version of the algorithm was run on the NEIC catalog. It recognizes three chains longer than 15 events, with Target events, shown in the figure. In the GII catalog only two chains are found. Both start with a

  8. Improved stress release model: Application to the study of earthquake prediction in Taiwan area

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱守彪; 石耀霖

    2002-01-01

    tress release model used to be applied to seismicity study of large historical earthquakes in a space of large scale. In this paper, we improve the stress release model, and discuss whether the stress release model is still applicable or not in the case of smaller spatio-temporal scale and weaker earthquakes. As an example of testing the model, we have analyzed the M(6 earthquakes in recent about 100 years. The result shows that the stress release model is still applicable. The earthquake conditional probability intensity in Taiwan area is calculated with the improved stress release model. We see that accuracy of earthquake occurrence time predicted by the improved stress release model is higher than that by Poisson model in the test of retrospect earthquake prediction.

  9. A Threshold-based, on-site earthquake early warning approach for Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caruso, Alessandro; Colombelli, Simona; Zollo, Aldo; Kanamori, Hiroo

    2017-04-01

    A real-time strategy for a P-wave based, on-site earthquake early warning system has been developed and tested using the database of Italian earthquakes. The key elements of the proposed methodology are: 1) the real-time, continuous measurement of three peak amplitude parameters (the initial peak of displacement, Pd, velocity, Pv, and acceleration, Pa) along the vertical component of the P-wave signal and 2) their empirical combination to predict the ensuing Peak Ground Velocity at the same site. The observed parameters are compared to prior established threshold values and then converted into a single, dimensionless variable. A local alert level is issued at the recording site as soon as the empirical combination overcomes a given threshold. The three parameters are continuously measured along the recorded signals, starting from the P-wave arrival time, and progressively expanding the time window. A possible risk when using this approach is the inclusion of the S-waves in the analyzed P-wave signal portion, which may lead to an overestimation of the predicted ground shaking level. To minimize the S-wave contamination, an efficient algorithm for the automatic detection of the S-wave arrival time has been included. The algorithm is based on the real-time polarization analysis of the three-component seismogram and on the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) (Rosenberger, 2010; Amoroso et al., 2012) and is able to distinguish variations in the polarization of the original signal, and to discriminate the dominant P-wave signal from the arrival of later S-wave phases. The performance of the method has been evaluated by defining successful, missed and false alarms, and counting the relative percentage, after applying the approach to a testing catalog of Italian earthquake records. The database we used for the system testing and calibration consists of more than 200 Italian events in a magnitude range 3.5 SVD filtering. The proposed methodology provides more reliable

  10. Demonstration of the Cascadia G‐FAST geodetic earthquake early warning system for the Nisqually, Washington, earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowell, Brendan; Schmidt, David; Bodin, Paul; Vidale, John; Gomberg, Joan S.; Hartog, Renate; Kress, Victor; Melbourne, Tim; Santillian, Marcelo; Minson, Sarah E.; Jamison, Dylan

    2016-01-01

    A prototype earthquake early warning (EEW) system is currently in development in the Pacific Northwest. We have taken a two‐stage approach to EEW: (1) detection and initial characterization using strong‐motion data with the Earthquake Alarm Systems (ElarmS) seismic early warning package and (2) the triggering of geodetic modeling modules using Global Navigation Satellite Systems data that help provide robust estimates of large‐magnitude earthquakes. In this article we demonstrate the performance of the latter, the Geodetic First Approximation of Size and Time (G‐FAST) geodetic early warning system, using simulated displacements for the 2001Mw 6.8 Nisqually earthquake. We test the timing and performance of the two G‐FAST source characterization modules, peak ground displacement scaling, and Centroid Moment Tensor‐driven finite‐fault‐slip modeling under ideal, latent, noisy, and incomplete data conditions. We show good agreement between source parameters computed by G‐FAST with previously published and postprocessed seismic and geodetic results for all test cases and modeling modules, and we discuss the challenges with integration into the U.S. Geological Survey’s ShakeAlert EEW system.

  11. An Envelope Based Feedback Control System for Earthquake Early Warning: Reality Check Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heaton, T. H.; Karakus, G.; Beck, J. L.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquake early warning systems are, in general, designed to be open loop control systems in such a way that the output, i.e., the warning messages, only depend on the input, i.e., recorded ground motions, up to the moment when the message is issued in real-time. We propose an algorithm, which is called Reality Check Algorithm (RCA), which would assess the accuracy of issued warning messages, and then feed the outcome of the assessment back into the system. Then, the system would modify its messages if necessary. That is, we are proposing to convert earthquake early warning systems into feedback control systems by integrating them with RCA. RCA works by continuously monitoring and comparing the observed ground motions' envelopes to the predicted envelopes of Virtual Seismologist (Cua 2005). Accuracy of magnitude and location (both spatial and temporal) estimations of the system are assessed separately by probabilistic classification models, which are trained by a Sparse Bayesian Learning technique called Automatic Relevance Determination prior.

  12. The ordered network structure of M {>=} 8 great earthquakes and their prediction in Mainland China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Men, Kepei [Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology (China). College of Mathematics and Statistics

    2012-05-15

    China is one of the countries which have the most earthquake disasters in the world. A total of 23 M {>=} 8 earthquakes occurred in Mainland China from 1303 to 2010. The seismic activity of M {>=} 8 earthquakes has had an obvious self-organized orderliness. The main ordered values are 252 {proportional_to} 258 a, 108 {proportional_to} 112 a, 94 {proportional_to} 98 a, 44 {proportional_to} 47 a, 24 {proportional_to} 25 a, 16 {proportional_to} 19 a, and 11 {proportional_to} 14 a. According to the information forecasting theory of Wen-Bo Weng and combining ordered analysis with complex network technology, we build an informational ordered network structure of M {>=} 8 great earthquakes in Mainland China and try to explore the practical method for M {>=} 8 great earthquake prediction with Chinese characteristics. In this paper, we have summarized the prediction research on two great earthquakes (the 2001 Kunlunshan M8.1 and the 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake) during the beginning of the 21st century in western Mainland China. At last, with the method of ordered network structure, we present a new prediction opinion: the future M {>=} 8 great earthquakes will happen in 2026 and 2065 pre and post in Mainland China. The results show that a M {>=} 8 great earthquake could be predicted and the network feature is the formation mechanism of great earthquakes. The ordered network method has a unique effect on moderate term and long term prediction for M {>=} 8 great earthquakes. (orig.)

  13. Earthquake

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    正A serious earthquake happened in Wenchuan, Sichuan. Over 60,000 people died in the earhtquake, millins of people lost their homes. After the earthquake, people showed their love in different ways. Some gave food, medicine and everything necessary, some gave money,

  14. Joint multivariate statistical model and its applications to the synthetic earthquake prediction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    韩天锡; 蒋淳; 魏雪丽; 韩梅; 冯德益

    2004-01-01

    Considering the problems that should be solved in the synthetic earthquake prediction at present, a new model is proposed in the paper. It is called joint multivariate statistical model combined by principal component analysis with discriminatory analysis. Principal component analysis and discriminatory analysis are very important theories in multivariate statistical analysis that has developed quickly in the late thirty years. By means of maximization information method, we choose several earthquake prediction factors whose cumulative proportions of total sample variances are beyond 90% from numerous earthquake prediction factors. The paper applies regression analysis and Mahalanobis discrimination to extrapolating synthetic prediction. Furthermore, we use this model to characterize and predict earthquakes in North China (30°~42°N, 108°~125°E) and better prediction results are obtained.

  15. A Robust Scheme for the Global Earthquake Early Warning Based on Characteristic Frequency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yu-Chang; Chiao, Ling-Yun; Wu, Cheng-Ju

    2017-04-01

    Earthquake hazards mitigation have always been an important issue. Prompt and rapid high precision magnitude estimation is essential to achieve the goal of effective early warning. However, the current state of the method including the maximum predominant period (τpmax), the vertical displacement of P-wave (Pd), and the τc × Pdmethod has reached a standstill for nearly a decade. The major shortcoming is that these methods are not quite applicable for large earthquakes (M>7). Therefore, a new magnitude estimation method for earthquake early warning is crucial and is needed for human preventing loss and casualties in the large earthquakes. Here we demonstrate a robust scheme based on the characteristic frequency. Our result shows a linear relation between the momentum magnitude and the characteristic frequency of P-wave which appears within the first few seconds. This method requires fewer calculations and doesn't need to apply any filter to obtain better results, so the data processing time needed for the real-time earthquake early warning system is greatly reduced. This method also indicates strong applicability for estimating earthquakes with magnitude larger than 7. We demonstrate a robust scheme of global earthquake early warning.

  16. Smartphone-Based Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning in Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, B. A.; Baez, J. C.; Ericksen, T.; Barrientos, S. E.; Minson, S. E.; Duncan, C.; Guillemot, C.; Smith, D.; Boese, M.; Cochran, E. S.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Glennie, C. L.; Dueitt, J.; Parra, H.

    2016-12-01

    Many locations around the world face high seismic hazard, but do not have the resources required to establish traditional earthquake and tsunami warning systems (E/TEW) that utilize scientific grade seismological sensors. MEMs accelerometers and GPS chips embedded in, or added inexpensively to, smartphones are sensitive enough to provide robust E/TEW if they are deployed in sufficient numbers. We report on a pilot project in Chile, one of the most productive earthquake regions world-wide. There, magnitude 7.5+ earthquakes occurring roughly every 1.5 years and larger tsunamigenic events pose significant local and trans-Pacific hazard. The smartphone-based network described here is being deployed in parallel to the build-out of a scientific-grade network for E/TEW. Our sensor package comprises a smartphone with internal MEMS and an external GPS chipset that provides satellite-based augmented positioning and phase-smoothing. Each station is independent of local infrastructure, they are solar-powered and rely on cellular SIM cards for communications. An Android app performs initial onboard processing and transmits both accelerometer and GPS data to a server employing the FinDer-BEFORES algorithm to detect earthquakes, producing an acceleration-based line source model for smaller magnitude earthquakes or a joint seismic-geodetic finite-fault distributed slip model for sufficiently large magnitude earthquakes. Either source model provides accurate ground shaking forecasts, while distributed slip models for larger offshore earthquakes can be used to infer seafloor deformation for local tsunami warning. The network will comprise 50 stations by Sept. 2016 and 100 stations by Dec. 2016. Since Nov. 2015, batch processing has detected, located, and estimated the magnitude for Mw>5 earthquakes. Operational since June, 2016, we have successfully detected two earthquakes > M5 (M5.5, M5.1) that occurred within 100km of our network while producing zero false alarms.

  17. MyShake: A smartphone seismic network for earthquake early warning and beyond.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Qingkai; Allen, Richard M; Schreier, Louis; Kwon, Young-Woo

    2016-02-01

    Large magnitude earthquakes in urban environments continue to kill and injure tens to hundreds of thousands of people, inflicting lasting societal and economic disasters. Earthquake early warning (EEW) provides seconds to minutes of warning, allowing people to move to safe zones and automated slowdown and shutdown of transit and other machinery. The handful of EEW systems operating around the world use traditional seismic and geodetic networks that exist only in a few nations. Smartphones are much more prevalent than traditional networks and contain accelerometers that can also be used to detect earthquakes. We report on the development of a new type of seismic system, MyShake, that harnesses personal/private smartphone sensors to collect data and analyze earthquakes. We show that smartphones can record magnitude 5 earthquakes at distances of 10 km or less and develop an on-phone detection capability to separate earthquakes from other everyday shakes. Our proof-of-concept system then collects earthquake data at a central site where a network detection algorithm confirms that an earthquake is under way and estimates the location and magnitude in real time. This information can then be used to issue an alert of forthcoming ground shaking. MyShake could be used to enhance EEW in regions with traditional networks and could provide the only EEW capability in regions without. In addition, the seismic waveforms recorded could be used to deliver rapid microseism maps, study impacts on buildings, and possibly image shallow earth structure and earthquake rupture kinematics.

  18. G-FAST Early Warning Potential for Great Earthquakes in Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowell, B.; Schmidt, D. A.; Baker, B. I.; Bodin, P.; Vidale, J. E.

    2016-12-01

    The importance of GNSS-based earthquake early warning for modeling large earthquakes has been studied extensively over the past decade and several such systems are currently under development. In the Pacific Northwest, we have developed the G-FAST GNSS-based earthquake early warning module for eventual inclusion in the US West-Coast wide ShakeAlert system. We have also created a test system that allows us to replay past and synthetic earthquakes to identify problems with both the network architecture and the algorithms. Between 2010 and 2016, there have been seven M > 8 earthquakes across the globe, of which three struck offshore Chile; the 27 February 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, the 1 April 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique, and the 16 September 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel. Subsequent to these events, the Chilean national GNSS network operated by the Centro Sismologico Nacional (http://www.sismologia.cl/) greatly expanded to over 150 continuous GNSS stations, providing the best recordings of great earthquakes with GNSS outside of Japan. Here we report on retrospective G-FAST performance for those three great earthquakes in Chile. We discuss the interplay of location errors, latency, and data completeness with respect to the precision and timing of G-FAST earthquake source alerts as well as the computational demands of the system.

  19. Turning the rumor of May 11, 2011 earthquake prediction In Rome, Italy, into an information day on earthquake hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amato, A.; Cultrera, G.; Margheriti, L.; Nostro, C.; Selvaggi, G.; INGVterremoti Team

    2011-12-01

    A devastating earthquake had been predicted for May 11, 2011 in Rome. This prediction was never released officially by anyone, but it grew up in the Internet and was amplified by media. It was erroneously ascribed to Raffaele Bendandi, an Italian self-taught natural scientist who studied planetary motions. Indeed, around May 11, 2011, a planetary alignment was really expected and this contributed to give credibility to the earthquake prediction among people. During the previous months, INGV was overwhelmed with requests for information about this supposed prediction by Roman inhabitants and tourists. Given the considerable mediatic impact of this expected earthquake, INGV decided to organize an Open Day in its headquarter in Rome for people who wanted to learn more about the Italian seismicity and the earthquake as natural phenomenon. The Open Day was preceded by a press conference two days before, in which we talked about this prediction, we presented the Open Day, and we had a scientific discussion with journalists about the earthquake prediction and more in general on the real problem of seismic risk in Italy. About 40 journalists from newspapers, local and national tv's, press agencies and web news attended the Press Conference and hundreds of articles appeared in the following days, advertising the 11 May Open Day. The INGV opened to the public all day long (9am - 9pm) with the following program: i) meetings with INGV researchers to discuss scientific issues; ii) visits to the seismic monitoring room, open 24h/7 all year; iii) guided tours through interactive exhibitions on earthquakes and Earth's deep structure; iv) lectures on general topics from the social impact of rumors to seismic risk reduction; v) 13 new videos on channel YouTube.com/INGVterremoti to explain the earthquake process and give updates on various aspects of seismic monitoring in Italy; vi) distribution of books and brochures. Surprisingly, more than 3000 visitors came to visit INGV

  20. Initial application of the maximum likelihood earthquake location method to early warning system in South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheen, D. H.; Seong, Y. J.; Park, J. H.; Lim, I. S.

    2015-12-01

    From the early of this year, the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) began to operate the first stage of an earthquake early warning system (EEWS) and provide early warning information to the general public. The earthquake early warning system (EEWS) in the KMA is based on the Earthquake Alarm Systems version 2 (ElarmS-2), developed at the University of California Berkeley. This method estimates the earthquake location using a simple grid search algorithm that finds the location with the minimum variance of the origin time on successively finer grids. A robust maximum likelihood earthquake location (MAXEL) method for early warning, based on the equal differential times of P arrivals, was recently developed. The MAXEL has been demonstrated to be successful in determining the event location, even when an outlier is included in the small number of P arrivals. This presentation details the application of the MAXEL to the EEWS of the KMA, its performance evaluation over seismic networks in South Korea with synthetic data, and comparison of statistics of earthquake locations based on the ElarmS-2 and the MAXEL.

  1. Application of real-time GPS to earthquake early warning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Richard M. Allen; Alon Ziv

    2011-01-01

      Real-time GPS can provide static-offset observations during an earthquake Real-time GPS provides a robust constrain on magnitude for warnings GPS networks should be used as a companion to seismic...

  2. Earthquake prediction in seismogenic areas of the Iberian Peninsula based on computational intelligence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales-Esteban, A.; Martínez-Álvarez, F.; Reyes, J.

    2013-05-01

    A method to predict earthquakes in two of the seismogenic areas of the Iberian Peninsula, based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), is presented in this paper. ANNs have been widely used in many fields but only very few and very recent studies have been conducted on earthquake prediction. Two kinds of predictions are provided in this study: a) the probability of an earthquake, of magnitude equal or larger than a preset threshold magnitude, within the next 7 days, to happen; b) the probability of an earthquake of a limited magnitude interval to happen, during the next 7 days. First, the physical fundamentals related to earthquake occurrence are explained. Second, the mathematical model underlying ANNs is explained and the configuration chosen is justified. Then, the ANNs have been trained in both areas: The Alborán Sea and the Western Azores-Gibraltar fault. Later, the ANNs have been tested in both areas for a period of time immediately subsequent to the training period. Statistical tests are provided showing meaningful results. Finally, ANNs were compared to other well known classifiers showing quantitatively and qualitatively better results. The authors expect that the results obtained will encourage researchers to conduct further research on this topic. Development of a system capable of predicting earthquakes for the next seven days Application of ANN is particularly reliable to earthquake prediction. Use of geophysical information modeling the soil behavior as ANN's input data Successful analysis of one region with large seismic activity

  3. Earthquake prediction rumors can help in building earthquake awareness: the case of May the 11th 2011 in Rome (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amato, A.; Arcoraci, L.; Casarotti, E.; Cultrera, G.; Di Stefano, R.; Margheriti, L.; Nostro, C.; Selvaggi, G.; May-11 Team

    2012-04-01

    Banner headlines in an Italian newspaper read on May 11, 2011: "Absence boom in offices: the urban legend in Rome become psychosis". This was the effect of a large-magnitude earthquake prediction in Rome for May 11, 2011. This prediction was never officially released, but it grew up in Internet and was amplified by media. It was erroneously ascribed to Raffaele Bendandi, an Italian self-taught natural scientist who studied planetary motions and related them to earthquakes. Indeed, around May 11, 2011, there was a planetary alignment and this increased the earthquake prediction credibility. Given the echo of this earthquake prediction, INGV decided to organize on May 11 (the same day the earthquake was predicted to happen) an Open Day in its headquarter in Rome to inform on the Italian seismicity and the earthquake physics. The Open Day was preceded by a press conference two days before, attended by about 40 journalists from newspapers, local and national TV's, press agencies and web news magazines. Hundreds of articles appeared in the following two days, advertising the 11 May Open Day. On May 11 the INGV headquarter was peacefully invaded by over 3,000 visitors from 9am to 9pm: families, students, civil protection groups and many journalists. The program included conferences on a wide variety of subjects (from social impact of rumors to seismic risk reduction) and distribution of books and brochures, in addition to several activities: meetings with INGV researchers to discuss scientific issues, visits to the seismic monitoring room (open 24h/7 all year), guided tours through interactive exhibitions on earthquakes and Earth's deep structure. During the same day, thirteen new videos have also been posted on our youtube/INGVterremoti channel to explain the earthquake process and hazard, and to provide real time periodic updates on seismicity in Italy. On May 11 no large earthquake happened in Italy. The initiative, built up in few weeks, had a very large feedback

  4. Conjecture on imminent earthquake prediction --- from shaving foam to cloud patterns

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Xin

    2013-01-01

    A conjecture on imminent earthquake prediction is presented. Drastic geological deformations of crustal rock strata taking place immediately (hours/days) before an earthquake may cause fast air or gas emission/absorption vertically in between ground and sky. I conjecture, inspired by an observation of strange patterns appearing on shaving foam, that this fast movement of air fluid may produce unusual cloud patterns at interfaces between atmosphere levels. This air movement is vertical and drastic, different from the horizontal and moderate meteorological air movement, hence its caused cloud patterns are expected to be different from meteorological cloud patterns. This provides a possible origin for the so-called earthquake cloud. Recognition of different earthquake cloud patterns may provide a practical way to estimate location, magnitude and strength of geological deformations of rock strata, and hence a method with support of physics for imminent earthquake prediction. In the end of this paper an experiment...

  5. Prediction Capabilities of VLF/LF Emission as the Main Precursor of Earthquake

    CERN Document Server

    Kachakhidze, Manana

    2013-01-01

    Recent satellite and ground-based observations proved that in earthquake preparation period in the seismogenic area we have VLF/LF and ULF electromagnetic emissions. According to the opinion of the authors of the present paper this phenomenon is more universal and reliable than other earthquake indicators. Hypothetically, in case of availability of adequate methodological grounds, in the nearest future, earth VLF/LF electromagnetic emission might be declared as the main precursor of earthquake. In particular, permanent monitoring of frequency spectrum of earth electromagnetic emission generated in the earthquake preparation period might turn out very useful with the view of prediction of large (M 5) inland earthquakes. The present paper offers a scheme of the methodology according to which the reality of the above given hypothesis can be checked up. To prove the prediction capabilities of earth electromagnetic emission we have used avalanche-like unstable model of fault formation and an analogous model of ele...

  6. Multi-events earthquake early warning algorithm using a Bayesian approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, S.; Yamada, M.; Tamaribuchi, K.; Beck, J. L.

    2015-02-01

    Current earthquake early warning (EEW) systems lack the ability to appropriately handle multiple concurrent earthquakes, which led to many false alarms during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake sequence in Japan. This paper uses a Bayesian probabilistic approach to handle multiple concurrent events for EEW. We implement the theory using a two-step algorithm. First, an efficient approximate Bayesian model class selection scheme is used to estimate the number of concurrent events. Then, the Rao-Blackwellized Importance Sampling method with a sequential proposal probability density function is used to estimate the earthquake parameters, that is hypocentre location, origin time, magnitude and local seismic intensity. A real data example based on 2 months data (2011 March 9-April 30) around the time of the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake is studied to verify the proposed algorithm. Our algorithm results in over 90 per cent reduction in the number of incorrect warnings compared to the existing EEW system operating in Japan.

  7. Integrating Low-Cost Mems Accelerometer Mini-Arrays (mama) in Earthquake Early Warning Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nof, R. N.; Chung, A. I.; Rademacher, H.; Allen, R. M.

    2016-12-01

    Current operational Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) acquire data with networks of single seismic stations, and compute source parameters assuming earthquakes to be point sources. For large events, the point-source assumption leads to an underestimation of magnitude, and the use of single stations leads to large uncertainties in the locations of events outside the network. We propose the use of mini-arrays to improve EEWS. Mini-arrays have the potential to: (a) estimate reliable hypocentral locations by beam forming (FK-analysis) techniques; (b) characterize the rupture dimensions and account for finite-source effects, leading to more reliable estimates for large magnitudes. Previously, the high price of multiple seismometers has made creating arrays cost-prohibitive. However, we propose setting up mini-arrays of a new seismometer based on low-cost (<$150), high-performance MEMS accelerometer around conventional seismic stations. The expected benefits of such an approach include decreasing alert-times, improving real-time shaking predictions and mitigating false alarms. We use low-resolution 14-bit Quake Catcher Network (QCN) data collected during Rapid Aftershock Mobilization Program (RAMP) in Christchurch, NZ following the M7.1 Darfield earthquake in September 2010. As the QCN network was so dense, we were able to use small sub-array of up to ten sensors spread along a maximum area of 1.7x2.2 km2 to demonstrate our approach and to solve for the BAZ of two events (Mw4.7 and Mw5.1) with less than ±10° error. We will also present the new 24-bit device details, benchmarks, and real-time measurements.

  8. QuakeUp: An advanced tool for a network-based Earthquake Early Warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zollo, Aldo; Colombelli, Simona; Caruso, Alessandro; Elia, Luca; Brondi, Piero; Emolo, Antonio; Festa, Gaetano; Martino, Claudio; Picozzi, Matteo

    2017-04-01

    The currently developed and operational Earthquake Early warning, regional systems ground on the assumption of a point-like earthquake source model and 1-D ground motion prediction equations to estimate the earthquake impact. Here we propose a new network-based method which allows for issuing an alert based upon the real-time mapping of the Potential Damage Zone (PDZ), e.g. the epicentral area where the peak ground velocity is expected to exceed the damaging or strong shaking levels with no assumption about the earthquake rupture extent and spatial variability of ground motion. The platform includes the most advanced techniques for a refined estimation of the main source parameters (earthquake location and magnitude) and for an accurate prediction of the expected ground shaking level. The new software platform (QuakeUp) is under development at the Seismological Laboratory (RISSC-Lab) of the Department of Physics at the University of Naples Federico II, in collaboration with the academic spin-off company RISS s.r.l., recently gemmated by the research group. The system processes the 3-component, real-time ground acceleration and velocity data streams at each station. The signal quality is preliminary assessed by checking the signal-to-noise ratio both in acceleration, velocity and displacement and through dedicated filtering algorithms. For stations providing high quality data, the characteristic P-wave period (τ_c) and the P-wave displacement, velocity and acceleration amplitudes (P_d, Pv and P_a) are jointly measured on a progressively expanded P-wave time window. The evolutionary measurements of the early P-wave amplitude and characteristic period at stations around the source allow to predict the geometry and extent of PDZ, but also of the lower shaking intensity regions at larger epicentral distances. This is done by correlating the measured P-wave amplitude with the Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) and Instrumental Intensity (I_MM) and by mapping the measured and

  9. Empirical models for the prediction of ground motion duration for intraplate earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anbazhagan, P.; Neaz Sheikh, M.; Bajaj, Ketan; Mariya Dayana, P. J.; Madhura, H.; Reddy, G. R.

    2017-02-01

    Many empirical relationships for the earthquake ground motion duration were developed for interplate region, whereas only a very limited number of empirical relationships exist for intraplate region. Also, the existing relationships were developed based mostly on the scaled recorded interplate earthquakes to represent intraplate earthquakes. To the author's knowledge, none of the existing relationships for the intraplate regions were developed using only the data from intraplate regions. Therefore, an attempt is made in this study to develop empirical predictive relationships of earthquake ground motion duration (i.e., significant and bracketed) with earthquake magnitude, hypocentral distance, and site conditions (i.e., rock and soil sites) using the data compiled from intraplate regions of Canada, Australia, Peninsular India, and the central and southern parts of the USA. The compiled earthquake ground motion data consists of 600 records with moment magnitudes ranging from 3.0 to 6.5 and hypocentral distances ranging from 4 to 1000 km. The non-linear mixed-effect (NLMEs) and logistic regression techniques (to account for zero duration) were used to fit predictive models to the duration data. The bracketed duration was found to be decreased with an increase in the hypocentral distance and increased with an increase in the magnitude of the earthquake. The significant duration was found to be increased with the increase in the magnitude and hypocentral distance of the earthquake. Both significant and bracketed durations were predicted higher in rock sites than in soil sites. The predictive relationships developed herein are compared with the existing relationships for interplate and intraplate regions. The developed relationship for bracketed duration predicts lower durations for rock and soil sites. However, the developed relationship for a significant duration predicts lower durations up to a certain distance and thereafter predicts higher durations compared to the

  10. Empirical models for the prediction of ground motion duration for intraplate earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anbazhagan, P.; Neaz Sheikh, M.; Bajaj, Ketan; Mariya Dayana, P. J.; Madhura, H.; Reddy, G. R.

    2017-07-01

    Many empirical relationships for the earthquake ground motion duration were developed for interplate region, whereas only a very limited number of empirical relationships exist for intraplate region. Also, the existing relationships were developed based mostly on the scaled recorded interplate earthquakes to represent intraplate earthquakes. To the author's knowledge, none of the existing relationships for the intraplate regions were developed using only the data from intraplate regions. Therefore, an attempt is made in this study to develop empirical predictive relationships of earthquake ground motion duration (i.e., significant and bracketed) with earthquake magnitude, hypocentral distance, and site conditions (i.e., rock and soil sites) using the data compiled from intraplate regions of Canada, Australia, Peninsular India, and the central and southern parts of the USA. The compiled earthquake ground motion data consists of 600 records with moment magnitudes ranging from 3.0 to 6.5 and hypocentral distances ranging from 4 to 1000 km. The non-linear mixed-effect (NLMEs) and logistic regression techniques (to account for zero duration) were used to fit predictive models to the duration data. The bracketed duration was found to be decreased with an increase in the hypocentral distance and increased with an increase in the magnitude of the earthquake. The significant duration was found to be increased with the increase in the magnitude and hypocentral distance of the earthquake. Both significant and bracketed durations were predicted higher in rock sites than in soil sites. The predictive relationships developed herein are compared with the existing relationships for interplate and intraplate regions. The developed relationship for bracketed duration predicts lower durations for rock and soil sites. However, the developed relationship for a significant duration predicts lower durations up to a certain distance and thereafter predicts higher durations compared to the

  11. MyShake: A smartphone seismic network for earthquake early warning and beyond

    OpenAIRE

    Kong, Qingkai; Allen, Richard M.; Schreier, Louis; Kwon, Young-Woo

    2016-01-01

    Large magnitude earthquakes in urban environments continue to kill and injure tens to hundreds of thousands of people, inflicting lasting societal and economic disasters. Earthquake early warning (EEW) provides seconds to minutes of warning, allowing people to move to safe zones and automated slowdown and shutdown of transit and other machinery. The handful of EEW systems operating around the world use traditional seismic and geodetic networks that exist only in a few nations. Smartphones are...

  12. Earthquake early warning system using real-time signal processing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leach, R.R. Jr.; Dowla, F.U.

    1996-02-01

    An earthquake warning system has been developed to provide a time series profile from which vital parameters such as the time until strong shaking begins, the intensity of the shaking, and the duration of the shaking, can be derived. Interaction of different types of ground motion and changes in the elastic properties of geological media throughout the propagation path result in a highly nonlinear function. We use neural networks to model these nonlinearities and develop learning techniques for the analysis of temporal precursors occurring in the emerging earthquake seismic signal. The warning system is designed to analyze the first-arrival from the three components of an earthquake signal and instantaneously provide a profile of impending ground motion, in as little as 0.3 sec after first ground motion is felt at the sensors. For each new data sample, at a rate of 25 samples per second, the complete profile of the earthquake is updated. The profile consists of a magnitude-related estimate as well as an estimate of the envelope of the complete earthquake signal. The envelope provides estimates of damage parameters, such as time until peak ground acceleration (PGA) and duration. The neural network based system is trained using seismogram data from more than 400 earthquakes recorded in southern California. The system has been implemented in hardware using silicon accelerometers and a standard microprocessor. The proposed warning units can be used for site-specific applications, distributed networks, or to enhance existing distributed networks. By producing accurate, and informative warnings, the system has the potential to significantly minimize the hazards of catastrophic ground motion. Detailed system design and performance issues, including error measurement in a simple warning scenario are discussed in detail.

  13. G-larmS: Integrating Real-Time GPS into Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grapenthin, R.; Johanson, I. A.; Allen, R. M.

    2013-12-01

    In an effort to improve earthquake parameter estimation in earthquake early warning for large earthquakes (such as moment magnitude and finite fault geometry), the BSL is working to integrate information from real-time GPS and now generates and archives real-time position estimates using data from 62 GPS stations in the greater San Francisco Bay Area. This includes 26 stations that are operated by the BSL as part of the Bay Area Regional Deformation (BARD) network, 8 that are operated by the USGS, and 29 stations operated by the Plate Boundary Observatory. Data from these sites are processed in a fully triangulated network scheme in which neighboring station pairs are processed with the software trackRT. Positioning time series are produced operationally for 172 station pairs; additional station pairs will be added as more real-time stations become available. G-larmS, the geodetic alarm system, sits on top of real-time GPS processors such as trackRT and analyzes real-time positioning time series, and determines and broadcasts static offsets and quality parameters from these. Following this, G-larmS derives fault and magnitude information from the static offsets and broadcasts these results as well. This prototype Python implementation is tightly integrated into seismic alarm systems (CISN ShakeAlert, ElarmS) as it uses their P-wave detection alarms to trigger its processing. Testing the results of real-time GPS for earthquake early warning (EEW) under realistic conditions, and for scenarios that are relevant to the San Francisco Bay Area's tectonic environment, is a major step toward having our work accepted for integration with an operational EEW system. While Northern California has many small earthquakes (i.e., Mw6.5) that real-time GPS is expected to provide a significant contribution. This is because for larger events seismic systems need additional information to correctly estimate magnitude and finite fault extent and because real-time GPS suffers from a

  14. Quantitative prediction of strong motion for a potential earthquake fault

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shamita Das

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a new method for calculating strong motion records for a given seismic region on the basis of the laws of physics using information on the tectonics and physical properties of the earthquake fault. Our method is based on a earthquake model, called a «barrier model», which is characterized by five source parameters: fault length, width, maximum slip, rupture velocity, and barrier interval. The first three parameters may be constrained from plate tectonics, and the fourth parameter is roughly a constant. The most important parameter controlling the earthquake strong motion is the last parameter, «barrier interval». There are three methods to estimate the barrier interval for a given seismic region: 1 surface measurement of slip across fault breaks, 2 model fitting with observed near and far-field seismograms, and 3 scaling law data for small earthquakes in the region. The barrier intervals were estimated for a dozen earthquakes and four seismic regions by the above three methods. Our preliminary results for California suggest that the barrier interval may be determined if the maximum slip is given. The relation between the barrier interval and maximum slip varies from one seismic region to another. For example, the interval appears to be unusually long for Kilauea, Hawaii, which may explain why only scattered evidence of strong ground shaking was observed in the epicentral area of the Island of Hawaii earthquake of November 29, 1975. The stress drop associated with an individual fault segment estimated from the barrier interval and maximum slip lies between 100 and 1000 bars. These values are about one order of magnitude greater than those estimated earlier by the use of crack models without barriers. Thus, the barrier model can resolve, at least partially, the well known discrepancy between the stress-drops measured in the laboratory and those estimated for earthquakes.

  15. Predicting the Maximum Earthquake Magnitude from Seismic Data in Israel and Its Neighboring Countries.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Last

    Full Text Available This paper explores several data mining and time series analysis methods for predicting the magnitude of the largest seismic event in the next year based on the previously recorded seismic events in the same region. The methods are evaluated on a catalog of 9,042 earthquake events, which took place between 01/01/1983 and 31/12/2010 in the area of Israel and its neighboring countries. The data was obtained from the Geophysical Institute of Israel. Each earthquake record in the catalog is associated with one of 33 seismic regions. The data was cleaned by removing foreshocks and aftershocks. In our study, we have focused on ten most active regions, which account for more than 80% of the total number of earthquakes in the area. The goal is to predict whether the maximum earthquake magnitude in the following year will exceed the median of maximum yearly magnitudes in the same region. Since the analyzed catalog includes only 28 years of complete data, the last five annual records of each region (referring to the years 2006-2010 are kept for testing while using the previous annual records for training. The predictive features are based on the Gutenberg-Richter Ratio as well as on some new seismic indicators based on the moving averages of the number of earthquakes in each area. The new predictive features prove to be much more useful than the indicators traditionally used in the earthquake prediction literature. The most accurate result (AUC = 0.698 is reached by the Multi-Objective Info-Fuzzy Network (M-IFN algorithm, which takes into account the association between two target variables: the number of earthquakes and the maximum earthquake magnitude during the same year.

  16. Predicting the Maximum Earthquake Magnitude from Seismic Data in Israel and Its Neighboring Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Last, Mark; Rabinowitz, Nitzan; Leonard, Gideon

    2016-01-01

    This paper explores several data mining and time series analysis methods for predicting the magnitude of the largest seismic event in the next year based on the previously recorded seismic events in the same region. The methods are evaluated on a catalog of 9,042 earthquake events, which took place between 01/01/1983 and 31/12/2010 in the area of Israel and its neighboring countries. The data was obtained from the Geophysical Institute of Israel. Each earthquake record in the catalog is associated with one of 33 seismic regions. The data was cleaned by removing foreshocks and aftershocks. In our study, we have focused on ten most active regions, which account for more than 80% of the total number of earthquakes in the area. The goal is to predict whether the maximum earthquake magnitude in the following year will exceed the median of maximum yearly magnitudes in the same region. Since the analyzed catalog includes only 28 years of complete data, the last five annual records of each region (referring to the years 2006-2010) are kept for testing while using the previous annual records for training. The predictive features are based on the Gutenberg-Richter Ratio as well as on some new seismic indicators based on the moving averages of the number of earthquakes in each area. The new predictive features prove to be much more useful than the indicators traditionally used in the earthquake prediction literature. The most accurate result (AUC = 0.698) is reached by the Multi-Objective Info-Fuzzy Network (M-IFN) algorithm, which takes into account the association between two target variables: the number of earthquakes and the maximum earthquake magnitude during the same year.

  17. Scientific goals of the Parkfield earthquake prediction experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thatcher, W.

    1988-01-01

    Several unique circumstances of the Parkfield experiment provide unprecedented opportunities for significant advances in understanding the mechanics of earthquakes. to our knowledge, there is no other seismic zone anywhere where the time, place, and magnitude of an impending earthquake are specified as precisely. Moreover, the epicentral region is located on continental crust, is readily accessible, and can support a range of dense monitoring networks that are sited either on or very close to the expected rupture surface. As a result, the networks located at Parkfield are several orders of magnitude more sensitive than any previously deployed for monitoring earthquake precursors (a preearthquake change in strain, seismicity, and other geophysical parameters). In this respect the design of the Parkfield experiment resembles the rationale for constructing a new, more powerful nuclear particle accelerator:in both cases increased capabilities will test existing theories, reveal new phenomena, and suggest new research directions. 

  18. Seismicity as a guide to global tectonics and earthquake prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sykes, L. R.

    1972-01-01

    From seismicity studies, evidence is presented for several aspects of plate-tectonic theory, including ideas of sea-floor spreading, transform faulting and underthrusting of the lithosphere in island arcs. Recent advances in seismic instrumentation, the use of computers in earthquake location, and the installation of local networks of instruments are shown to have vastly increased the data available for seismicity studies. It is pointed out that most of the world's earthquakes are located in very narrow zones along active plate margins and are intimately related to global processes in an extremely coherent manner. Important areas of uncertainty calling for further studies are also pointed out.

  19. Coping with the challenges of early disaster response: 24 years of field hospital experience after earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bar-On, Elhanan; Abargel, Avi; Peleg, Kobi; Kreiss, Yitshak

    2013-10-01

    To propose strategies and recommendations for future planning and deployment of field hospitals after earthquakes by comparing the experience of 4 field hospitals deployed by The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Medical Corps in Armenia, Turkey, India and Haiti. Quantitative data regarding the earthquakes were collected from published sources; data regarding hospital activity were collected from IDF records; and qualitative information was obtained from structured interviews with key figures involved in the missions. The hospitals started operating between 89 and 262 hours after the earthquakes. Their sizes ranged from 25 to 72 beds, and their personnel numbered between 34 and 100. The number of patients treated varied from 1111 to 2400. The proportion of earthquake-related diagnoses ranged from 28% to 67% (P earthquakes, patient caseload and treatment requirements varied widely. The variables affecting the patient profile most significantly were time until deployment, total number of injured, availability of adjacent medical facilities, and possibility of evacuation from the disaster area. When deploying a field hospital in the early phase after an earthquake, a wide variability in patient caseload should be anticipated. Customization is difficult due to the paucity of information. Therefore, early deployment necessitates full logistic self-sufficiency and operational versatility. Also, collaboration with local and international medical teams can greatly enhance treatment capabilities.

  20. Study on the Method of Short-Term Synthetic Earthquake Prediction in the North China Region

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ping Jianjun; Zhang Yongxian; Zhang Qingrong; Liu Suying; Chen Jianguo; Huang Wanfa; Mi Xuemei

    2004-01-01

    Based on the extraction and calculation of the short-term seismic precursory information magnitude from the 114 major precursory observations in the North China region, and together with consideration of factors such as geological structure, seismicity, crustal thickness, and in particular, the current geodynamics of the region, the authors studied the time-space evolution characteristics of the short-term earthquake precursory information magnitude and its relationship with earthquakes and proposed the index and method for the short-term synthetic prediction of earthquakes with Ms ≥ 5.0 in the North China region. The inspection through Rvalue shows that the method is effective to a certain extent for earthquake prediction.

  1. Four Examples of Short-Term and Imminent Prediction of Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    zeng, zuoxun; Liu, Genshen; Wu, Dabin; Sibgatulin, Victor

    2014-05-01

    We show here 4 examples of short-term and imminent prediction of earthquakes in China last year. They are Nima Earthquake(Ms5.2), Minxian Earthquake(Ms6.6), Nantou Earthquake (Ms6.7) and Dujiangyan Earthquake (Ms4.1) Imminent Prediction of Nima Earthquake(Ms5.2) Based on the comprehensive analysis of the prediction of Victor Sibgatulin using natural electromagnetic pulse anomalies and the prediction of Song Song and Song Kefu using observation of a precursory halo, and an observation for the locations of a degasification of the earth in the Naqu, Tibet by Zeng Zuoxun himself, the first author made a prediction for an earthquake around Ms 6 in 10 days in the area of the degasification point (31.5N, 89.0 E) at 0:54 of May 8th, 2013. He supplied another degasification point (31N, 86E) for the epicenter prediction at 8:34 of the same day. At 18:54:30 of May 15th, 2013, an earthquake of Ms5.2 occurred in the Nima County, Naqu, China. Imminent Prediction of Minxian Earthquake (Ms6.6) At 7:45 of July 22nd, 2013, an earthquake occurred at the border between Minxian and Zhangxian of Dingxi City (34.5N, 104.2E), Gansu province with magnitude of Ms6.6. We review the imminent prediction process and basis for the earthquake using the fingerprint method. 9 channels or 15 channels anomalous components - time curves can be outputted from the SW monitor for earthquake precursors. These components include geomagnetism, geoelectricity, crust stresses, resonance, crust inclination. When we compress the time axis, the outputted curves become different geometric images. The precursor images are different for earthquake in different regions. The alike or similar images correspond to earthquakes in a certain region. According to the 7-year observation of the precursor images and their corresponding earthquake, we usually get the fingerprint 6 days before the corresponding earthquakes. The magnitude prediction needs the comparison between the amplitudes of the fingerpringts from the same

  2. The ordered network structure of M ≥ 8 earthquakes and its prediction for the ordered pair great earthquakes in Mainland China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Men, Ke-Pei; Zhao, Kai [Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology (China). College of Mathematics and Statistics

    2014-03-15

    According to the statistical data, a total of 23 M ≥ 8 earthquakes occurred in Mainland China from 1303 to 2012. The seismic activity of M ≥ 8 earthquakes has showed an obvious self-organized orderliness. It should be remarked especially that there were three ordered pairs of M ≥ 8 earthquakes occurred in West China during 1902-2001, of which the time interval in each pair of two earthquakes was four years. This is a unique and rare earthquake example in earthquake history of China and the world. In the guidance of the information forecasting theory of Wen-Bo Weng, based on previous research results, combining ordered analysis with complex network technology, this paper focuses on the summary of the ordered network structure of M ≥ 8 earthquakes, supplements new information, constructs and further optimizes the 2D- and 3D-ordered network structure of M ≥ 8 earthquakes to make prediction research. At last, a new prediction opinion is presented that the future ordered pair of great earthquakes will probably occur around 2022 and 2026 in Mainland China. (orig.)

  3. NEAR REAL-TIME DETERMINATION OF EARTHQUAKE SOURCE PARAMETERS FOR TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING FROM GEODETIC OBSERVATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Manneela

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Exemplifying the tsunami source immediately after an earthquake is the most critical component of tsunami early warning, as not every earthquake generates a tsunami. After a major under sea earthquake, it is very important to determine whether or not it has actually triggered the deadly wave. The near real-time observations from near field networks such as strong motion and Global Positioning System (GPS allows rapid determination of fault geometry. Here we present a complete processing chain of Indian Tsunami Early Warning System (ITEWS, starting from acquisition of geodetic raw data, processing, inversion and simulating the situation as it would be at warning center during any major earthquake. We determine the earthquake moment magnitude and generate the centroid moment tensor solution using a novel approach which are the key elements for tsunami early warning. Though the well established seismic monitoring network, numerical modeling and dissemination system are currently capable to provide tsunami warnings to most of the countries in and around the Indian Ocean, the study highlights the critical role of geodetic observations in determination of tsunami source for high-quality forecasting.

  4. Near Real-Time Determination of Earthquake Source Parameters for Tsunami Early Warning from Geodetic Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manneela, Sunanda; Srinivasa Kumar, T.; Nayak, Shailesh R.

    2016-06-01

    Exemplifying the tsunami source immediately after an earthquake is the most critical component of tsunami early warning, as not every earthquake generates a tsunami. After a major under sea earthquake, it is very important to determine whether or not it has actually triggered the deadly wave. The near real-time observations from near field networks such as strong motion and Global Positioning System (GPS) allows rapid determination of fault geometry. Here we present a complete processing chain of Indian Tsunami Early Warning System (ITEWS), starting from acquisition of geodetic raw data, processing, inversion and simulating the situation as it would be at warning center during any major earthquake. We determine the earthquake moment magnitude and generate the centroid moment tensor solution using a novel approach which are the key elements for tsunami early warning. Though the well established seismic monitoring network, numerical modeling and dissemination system are currently capable to provide tsunami warnings to most of the countries in and around the Indian Ocean, the study highlights the critical role of geodetic observations in determination of tsunami source for high-quality forecasting.

  5. Applications of the gambling score in evaluating earthquake predictions and forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Jiancang; Zechar, Jeremy D.; Jiang, Changsheng; Console, Rodolfo; Murru, Maura; Falcone, Giuseppe

    2010-05-01

    This study presents a new method, namely the gambling score, for scoring the performance earthquake forecasts or predictions. Unlike most other scoring procedures that require a regular scheme of forecast and treat each earthquake equally, regardless their magnitude, this new scoring method compensates the risk that the forecaster has taken. Starting with a certain number of reputation points, once a forecaster makes a prediction or forecast, he is assumed to have betted some points of his reputation. The reference model, which plays the role of the house, determines how many reputation points the forecaster can gain if he succeeds, according to a fair rule, and also takes away the reputation points bet by the forecaster if he loses. This method is also extended to the continuous case of point process models, where the reputation points betted by the forecaster become a continuous mass on the space-time-magnitude range of interest. For discrete predictions, we apply this method to evaluate performance of Shebalin's predictions made by using the Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP) algorithm and of the outputs of the predictions from the Annual Consultation Meeting on Earthquake Tendency held by China Earthquake Administration. For the continuous case, we use it to compare the probability forecasts of seismicity in the Abruzzo region before and after the L'aquila earthquake based on the ETAS model and the PPE model.

  6. Predictability of Great Earthquakes: The 25 April 2015 M7.9 Gorkha (Nepal)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, V. G.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding of seismic process in terms of non-linear dynamics of a hierarchical system of blocks-and-faults and deterministic chaos, has already led to reproducible intermediate-term middle-range prediction of the great and significant earthquakes. The technique based on monitoring charcteristics of seismic static in an area proportional to source size of incipient earthquake is confirmed at the confidence level above 99% by statistics of Global Testing in forward application from 1992 to the present. The semi-annual predictions determined for the next half-year by the algorithm M8 aimed (i) at magnitude 8+ earthquakes in 262 circles of investigation, CI's, each of 667-km radius and (ii) at magnitude 7.5+ earthquakes in 180 CI's, each of 427-km radius are communicated each January and July to the Global Test Observers (about 150 today). The pre-fixed location of CI's cover all seismic regions where the M8 algorithm could run in its original version that requires annual rate of activity of 16 or more main shocks. According to predictions released in January 2015 for the first half of 2015, the 25 April 2015 Nepal MwGCMT = 7.9 earthquake falls outside the Test area for M7.5+, while its epicenter is within the accuracy limits of the alarm area for M8.0+ that spread along 1300 km of Himalayas. We note that (i) the earthquake confirms identification of areas prone to strong earthquakes in Himalayas by pattern recognition (Bhatia et al. 1992) and (ii) it would have been predicted by the modified version of the M8 algorithm aimed at M7.5+. The modified version is adjusted to a low level of earthquake detection, about 10 main shocks per year, and is tested successfully by Mojarab et al. (2015) in application to the recent earthquakes in Eastern Anatolia (23 October 2011, M7.3 Van earthquake) and Iranian Plateau (16 April 2013, M7.7 Saravan and the 24 September 2013, M7.7 Awaran earthquakes).

  7. EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION BASED ON THE HYDROGEODEFORMATION FIELD MONITORING DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gennady V. Kulikov

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper discusses further ways to improve the geodynamic informativity of the hydrogeodeformation field (HGD field monitoring. New methods for efficient assessment of the stressstrain state of the geological environment and seismic hazard are proposed. There are described the methods of monitoring data processing, distinguishing of HGD cycles, and construction of «forecasting» contours along extremums of these cycles. It is revealed that responses of the HGD field to development of planetaryscale endogenic geodynamic processes of earthquake preparation (with M>7 are simultaneously manifested in all seismically active regions of Russia which are remote from each other. Such responses occur from one to three months prior to such seismic events. The mechanism of this phenomenon can be disputed. The authors support the «planetary pulsation» concept which is up for the most recent debates. As evidenced by the HGD field monitoring data, strong earthquakes are a consequence of this phenomenon.

  8. The 2014 Mw 6.0 Napa earthquake, California: Observations from real-time GPS-enhanced earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grapenthin, Ronni; Johanson, Ingrid; Allen, Richard M.

    2014-12-01

    Recently, progress has been made to demonstrate feasibility and benefits of including real-time GPS (rtGPS) in earthquake early warning and rapid response systems. Most concepts, however, have yet to be integrated into operational environments. The Berkeley Seismological Laboratory runs an rtGPS-based finite fault inversion scheme in real time. This system (G-larmS) detected the 2014 Mw 6.0 South Napa earthquake in California. We review G-larmS' performance during this event and 13 aftershocks and present rtGPS observations and real-time modeling results for the main shock. The first distributed slip model and magnitude estimates were available 24s after the event origin time, which, after optimizations, was reduced to 14s (≈8s S wave travel time, ≈6s data latency). G-larmS' solutions for the aftershocks (that had no measurable surface displacements) demonstrate that, in combination with the seismic early warning magnitude, Mw 6.0 is our current resolution limit.

  9. Prediction of long-period ground motions from huge subduction earthquakes in Osaka, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawabe, H.; Kamae, K.

    2008-04-01

    There is a high possibility of reoccurrence of the Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes along the Nankai Trough in Japan. It is very important to predict the long-period ground motions from the next Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes with moment magnitudes of 8.1 and 8.4, respectively, to mitigate their disastrous effects. In this study, long-period (>2.5 s) ground motions were predicted using an earthquake scenario proposed by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion in Japan. The calculations were performed using a fourth-order finite difference method with a variable spacing staggered-grid in the frequency range 0.05 0.4 Hz. The attenuation characteristics ( Q) in the finite difference simulations were assumed to be proportional to frequency ( f) and S-wave velocity ( V s) represented by Q = f · V s / 2. Such optimum attenuation characteristic for the sedimentary layers in the Osaka basin was obtained empirically by comparing the observed motions during the actual M5.5 event with the modeling results. We used the velocity structure model of the Osaka basin consisting of three sedimentary layers on bedrock. The characteristics of the predicted long-period ground motions from the next Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes depend significantly on the complex thickness distribution of the sediments inside the basin. The duration of the predicted long-period ground motions in the city of Osaka is more than 4 min, and the largest peak ground velocities (PGVs) exceed 80 cm/s. The predominant period is 5 to 6 s. These preliminary results indicate the possibility of earthquake damage because of future subduction earthquakes in large-scale constructions such as tall buildings, long-span bridges, and oil storage tanks in the Osaka area.

  10. Combining Real-Time Seismic and GPS Data for Earthquake Early Warning (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boese, M.; Heaton, T. H.; Hudnut, K. W.

    2013-12-01

    Scientists at Caltech, UC Berkeley, the Univ. of SoCal, the Univ. of Washington, the US Geological Survey, and ETH Zurich have developed an earthquake early warning (EEW) demonstration system for California and the Pacific Northwest. To quickly determine the earthquake magnitude and location, 'ShakeAlert' currently processes and interprets real-time data-streams from ~400 seismic broadband and strong-motion stations within the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN). Based on these parameters, the 'UserDisplay' software predicts and displays the arrival and intensity of shaking at a given user site. Real-time ShakeAlert feeds are currently shared with around 160 individuals, companies, and emergency response organizations to educate potential users about EEW and to identify needs and applications of EEW in a future operational warning system. Recently, scientists at the contributing institutions have started to develop algorithms for ShakeAlert that make use of high-rate real-time GPS data to improve the magnitude estimates for large earthquakes (M>6.5) and to determine slip distributions. Knowing the fault slip in (near) real-time is crucial for users relying on or operating distributed systems, such as for power, water or transportation, especially if these networks run close to or across large faults. As shown in an earlier study, slip information is also useful to predict (in a probabilistic sense) how far a fault rupture will propagate, thus enabling more robust probabilistic ground-motion predictions at distant locations. Finally, fault slip information is needed for tsunami warning, such as in the Cascadia subduction-zone. To handle extended fault-ruptures of large earthquakes in real-time, Caltech and USGS Pasadena are currently developing and testing a two-step procedure that combines seismic and geodetic data; in the first step, high-frequency strong-motion amplitudes are used to rapidly classify near-and far-source stations. Then, the location and

  11. The 3rd International Conference on Continental Earthquakes, Mechanism, Prediction, Emergency Management & Insurance

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Dr.HuangJing

    2004-01-01

    The 3rd International Conference on Continental Earthquakes, Mechanism, Prediction, Emergency Management & Insurance (the 3rd ICCE) was held on July 9-14, 2004 in Beijing, China. The ICCE has been held every decade since it was launched over twenty years ago. The first ICCE, with the title """"International Symposium on Continental Seismicity and Earthquake Prediction""""(ISCSEP), had international sponsorship and was supported by e.g., UNESCO and hosted by the Seismological Society of China (SSC)in Beijing in 1982. In 1992 in response to the initiatives from the UN's International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR),

  12. Analysis of Italian Earthquake catalogs in the context of intermediate-term prediction problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romashkova, Leontina; Peresan, Antonella

    2013-06-01

    We perform a comparative analysis of regional and global earthquake catalogs currently available for the territory of Italy. We consider: (a) instrumental seismic catalogs provided by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma (INGV) for earthquake forecasting experiment in Italy within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP); (b) Global Hypocenters' Data provided by the USGS/NEIC, which is currently used in the real-time earthquake prediction experiment by CN and M8S algorithms in Italy, and (c) seismological Bulletin provided by the International Seismological Centre (ISC). We discuss advantages and shortcomings of these catalogs in the context of intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction problem in Italy, including the possibility of the catalog's combined or integrated use. Magnitude errors in the catalog can distort statistics of success-to-failure scoring and eventually falsify testing results. Therefore, the analysis of systematic and random errors in magnitude presented in Appendixes can be of significance in its own right.

  13. Application of Collocated GPS and Seismic Sensors to Earthquake Monitoring and Early Warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bofeng Guo

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available We explore the use of collocated GPS and seismic sensors for earthquake monitoring and early warning. The GPS and seismic data collected during the 2011 Tohoku-Oki (Japan and the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah (Mexico earthquakes are analyzed by using a tightly-coupled integration. The performance of the integrated results is validated by both time and frequency domain analysis. We detect the P-wave arrival and observe small-scale features of the movement from the integrated results and locate the epicenter. Meanwhile, permanent offsets are extracted from the integrated displacements highly accurately and used for reliable fault slip inversion and magnitude estimation.

  14. Multiscale approach to the predictability of earthquakes and of synthetic SOC sequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peresan, A.; Panza, G. F.

    2003-04-01

    The power-law scaling expressed by the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) law is the main argument in favour of the Self-Organised Criticality (SOC) of seismic phenomena. Nevertheless the limits of validity of the GR law and the phenomenology reproduced by the SOC models, as well as their consequences for earthquake predictability, still remain quite undefined. According to the Multiscale Seismicity (MS) model, the GR law describes adequately only the ensemble of earthquakes that are geometrically small with respect to the dimensions of the analysed region. The MS model and its implications for intermediate-term medium-range earthquake predictions are thus examined, considering both the seismicity observed in the Italian territory and the synthetic sequences of events generated by a SOC model. The predictability of the large events is evaluated by means of the algorithms CN and M8, based on a quantitative analysis of the seismic flow within a delimited region, which allow for the prediction of the earthquakes with magnitude greater than a fixed threshold Mo. Considering the application of CN and M8 to the Italian territory, we show that, in agreement with the MS model, these algorithms make use of the information carried by small and moderate earthquakes, following the GR law, to predict the strong earthquakes, which are infrequent and often arbitrarily considered characteristic events inside the regions delimited for prediction purposes. Similarly, the application of the algorithm CN for the prediction of the largest events in the synthetic SOC sequences, indicates that a certain predictability can be attained, when the MS model is taken into account. These results suggest that the similarity between the seismic flow and the SOC sequences goes beyond the average features of scale-invariance. In fact, while the GR law describes an average feature of seismicity, CN algorithm is checking for the deviations from such trend, which may characterise the sequence of events before the

  15. Predicted liquefaction of East Bay fills during a repeat of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holzer, T.L.; Blair, J.L.; Noce, T.E.; Bennett, M.J.

    2006-01-01

    Predicted conditional probabilities of surface manifestations of liquefaction during a repeat of the 1906 San Francisco (M7.8) earthquake range from 0.54 to 0.79 in the area underlain by the sandy artificial fills along the eastern shore of San Francisco Bay near Oakland, California. Despite widespread liquefaction in 1906 of sandy fills in San Francisco, most of the East Bay fills were emplaced after 1906 without soil improvement to increase their liquefaction resistance. They have yet to be shaken strongly. Probabilities are based on the liquefaction potential index computed from 82 CPT soundings using median (50th percentile) estimates of PGA based on a ground-motion prediction equation. Shaking estimates consider both distance from the San Andreas Fault and local site conditions. The high probabilities indicate extensive and damaging liquefaction will occur in East Bay fills during the next M ??? 7.8 earthquake on the northern San Andreas Fault. ?? 2006, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  16. How to predict Italy L'Aquila M6.3 earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Guangmeng

    2016-04-01

    According to the satellite cloud anomaly appeared over eastern Italy on 21-23 April 2012, we predicted the M6.0 quake occurred in north Italy successfully. Here checked the satellite images in 2011-2013 in Italy, and 21 cloud anomalies were found. Their possible correlation with earthquakes bigger than M4.7 which located in Italy main fault systems was statistically examined by assuming various lead times. The result shows that when the leading time interval is set to 23≤ΔT≤45 days, 8 of the 10 quakes were preceded by cloud anomalies. Poisson random test shows that AAR (anomaly appearance rate) and EOR (EQ occurrence rate) is much higher than the values by chance. This study proved the relation between cloud anomaly and earthquake in Italy. With this method, we found that L'Aquila earthquake can also be predicted according to cloud anomaly.

  17. Long-term predictability of regions and dates of strong earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubyshen, Alexander; Doda, Leonid; Shopin, Sergey

    2016-04-01

    Results on the long-term predictability of strong earthquakes are discussed. It is shown that dates of earthquakes with M>5.5 could be determined in advance of several months before the event. The magnitude and the region of approaching earthquake could be specified in the time-frame of a month before the event. Determination of number of M6+ earthquakes, which are expected to occur during the analyzed year, is performed using the special sequence diagram of seismic activity for the century time frame. Date analysis could be performed with advance of 15-20 years. Data is verified by a monthly sequence diagram of seismic activity. The number of strong earthquakes expected to occur in the analyzed month is determined by several methods having a different prediction horizon. Determination of days of potential earthquakes with M5.5+ is performed using astronomical data. Earthquakes occur on days of oppositions of Solar System planets (arranged in a single line). At that, the strongest earthquakes occur under the location of vector "Sun-Solar System barycenter" in the ecliptic plane. Details of this astronomical multivariate indicator still require further research, but it's practical significant is confirmed by practice. Another one empirical indicator of approaching earthquake M6+ is a synchronous variation of meteorological parameters: abrupt decreasing of minimal daily temperature, increasing of relative humidity, abrupt change of atmospheric pressure (RAMES method). Time difference of predicted and actual date is no more than one day. This indicator is registered 104 days before the earthquake, so it was called as Harmonic 104 or H-104. This fact looks paradoxical, but the works of A. Sytinskiy and V. Bokov on the correlation of global atmospheric circulation and seismic events give a physical basis for this empirical fact. Also, 104 days is a quarter of a Chandler period so this fact gives insight on the correlation between the anomalies of Earth orientation

  18. Moment tensor inversion of early instrumental data: application to the 1917 High Tiber Valley, Monterchi earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabrizio Bernardi

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present a new study on the High Tiber Valley earthquake occurred on April 26, 1917. Using the digitized data from mechanical seismograph records, we computed the source parameters like focal mechanism and moment magnitude from moment tensor (MT. The study of historical earthquakes from an instrumental perspective is crucial because of the complexity of problems associated with the study of seismograms of moderate to large earthquakes occurred from the late 19th century until the early 1960s. Since historical earthquake records show significant uncertainties in phase arrival times and have been recorded by seismograph generally with short natural period, we developed a code to compute the MT based on a forward modeling technique, which uses the amplitude spectra of the full waveform length and the first P-arrival polarities to constrain the P- and T-axes. The best solution is determined by the best fit between the observed and synthetic amplitude spectra and from the coherency between the observed and the theoretical first P-arrival polarities. The 1917 High Tiber Valley earthquake is one of the most important 20th century earthquake occurred in the Italian Peninsula for which the focal mechanism and moment magnitude from seismic records are not available. Additionally, we apply a multidisciplinary approach to characterize the source of this earthquake, combining instrumental, macroseismic, geological and tectonic data and investigations. The computed MT results in a north-south normal fault mechanism (strike: 147°, dip: 29°, slip: −94°, which is consistent with the strike estimated from the macroseismic data (157°. The moment magnitude calculated from the MT and that derived from the macroseismic data are Mw=5.5±0.2 and Mw=5.9±0.1, respectively.

  19. Complex Nucleation Process of Large North Chile Earthquakes, Implications for Early Warning Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz, S.; Meneses, G.; Sobiesiak, M.; Madariaga, R. I.

    2014-12-01

    We studied the nucleation process of Northern Chile events that included the large earthquakes of Tocopilla 2007 Mw 7.8 and Iquique 2014 Mw 8.1, as well as the background seismicity recorded from 2011 to 2013 by the ILN temporary network and the IPOC and CSN permanent networks. We built our catalogue of 393 events starting from the CSN catalogue, which has a completeness of magnitude Mw > 3.0 in Northern Chile. We re-located and computed moment magnitude for each event. We also computed Early Warning (EW) parameters - Pd, Pv, τc and IV2 - for each event including 13 earthquakes of Mw>6.0 that occurred between 2007-2012. We also included part of the seismicity from March-April 2014 period. We find that Pd, Pv and IV2 are good estimators of magnitude for interplate thrust and intraplate intermediate depth events with Mw between 4.0 and 6.0. However, the larger magnitude events show a saturation of the EW parameters. The Tocopilla 2007 and Iquique 2014 earthquake sequences were studied in detail. Almost all events with Mw>6.0 present precursory signals so that the largest amplitudes occur several seconds after the first P wave arrival. The recent Mw 8.1 Iquique 2014 earthquake was preceded by low amplitude P waves for 20 s before the main asperity was broken. The magnitude estimation can improve if we consider longer P wave windows in the estimation of EW parameters. There was, however, a practical limit during the Iquique earthquake because the first S waves arrived before the arrival of the P waves from the main rupture. The 4 s P-wave Pd parameter estimated Mw 7.1 for the Mw 8.1 Iquique 2014 earthquake and Mw 7.5 for the Mw 7.8 Tocopilla 2007 earthquake.

  20. Predicting Posttraumatic Stress Symptom Prevalence and Local Distribution after an Earthquake with Scarce Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dussaillant, Francisca; Apablaza, Mauricio

    2017-08-01

    After a major earthquake, the assignment of scarce mental health emergency personnel to different geographic areas is crucial to the effective management of the crisis. The scarce information that is available in the aftermath of a disaster may be valuable in helping predict where are the populations that are in most need. The objectives of this study were to derive algorithms to predict posttraumatic stress (PTS) symptom prevalence and local distribution after an earthquake and to test whether there are algorithms that require few input data and are still reasonably predictive. A rich database of PTS symptoms, informed after Chile's 2010 earthquake and tsunami, was used. Several model specifications for the mean and centiles of the distribution of PTS symptoms, together with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) prevalence, were estimated via linear and quantile regressions. The models varied in the set of covariates included. Adjusted R2 for the most liberal specifications (in terms of numbers of covariates included) ranged from 0.62 to 0.74, depending on the outcome. When only including peak ground acceleration (PGA), poverty rate, and household damage in linear and quadratic form, predictive capacity was still good (adjusted R2 from 0.59 to 0.67 were obtained). Information about local poverty, household damage, and PGA can be used as an aid to predict PTS symptom prevalence and local distribution after an earthquake. This can be of help to improve the assignment of mental health personnel to the affected localities. Dussaillant F , Apablaza M . Predicting posttraumatic stress symptom prevalence and local distribution after an earthquake with scarce data. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(4):357-367.

  1. A Cooperative Test of the Load/Unload Response Ratio Proposed Method of Earthquake Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trotta, J. E.; Tullis, T. E.

    2004-12-01

    The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is a proposed technique to predict earthquakes that was first put forward by Yin in 1984 (Yin, 1987). LURR is based on the idea that when a region is near failure, there is an increase in the rate of seismic activity during loading of the tidal cycle relative to the rate of seismic activity during unloading of the tidal cycle. Typically the numerator of the LURR ratio is the number, or the sum of some measure of the size (e.g. Benioff strain), of small earthquakes that occur during loading of the tidal cycle, whereas the denominator is the same as the numerator except it is calculated during unloading. LURR method suggests this ratio should increase in the months to year preceding a large earthquake. Regions near failure have tectonic stresses nearly high enough for a large earthquake to occur, thus it seems more likely that smaller earthquakes in the region would be triggered when the tidal stresses add to the tectonic ones. However, until recently even the most careful studies suggested that the effect of tidal stresses on earthquake occurrence is very small and difficult to detect. New studies have shown that there is a tidal triggering effect on shallow thrust faults in areas with strong tides from ocean loading (Tanaka et al., 2002; Cochran et al., 2004). We have been conducting an independent test of the LURR method, since there would be important scientific and social implications if the LURR method were proven to be a robust method of earthquake prediction. Smith and Sammis (2003) also undertook a similar study. Following both the parameters of Yin et al. (2000) and the somewhat different ones of Smith and Sammis (2003), we have repeated calculations of LURR for the Northridge and Loma Prieta earthquakes in California. Though we have followed both sets of parameters closely, we have been unable to reproduce either set of results. A general agreement was made at the recent ACES Workshop in China between research

  2. Study on correlativity among some seismological prediction indexes related to earthquake frequency or energy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Correlation among various seismological prediction indexes related to earthquake frequency N or energy E for describing seismicity changes is studied by seismic data of 11 seismic zones (areas) in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. A statistical test for correlativity shows that seismicity indexes obtained from transformation of earthquake fre-quency N or energy E have correlation to a certain extent while they are used to describe seismicity changes. If the transformation is linear in all cases, the correlation coefficient is equal to 1. The smaller the transformation devia-tion from linearity, the bigger the correlation coefficient is.

  3. Light for Earthquake Prediction:Shocks before the L'Aquila Earthquake of April 6,2009

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Li; Chen Yong

    2010-01-01

    The temporal-spatial distribution of mid-small earthquakes in Italy and its surroundings from January 1 to April 5,2009 shows that there were significant foreshocks before the moderate L'Aquila earthquake of April 6,2009.The enhancement of frequency and intensity of small earthquakes and their concentrating tendency to the future main shock have provided a comprehensive case for digging methods of earthquake forecasting with foreshocks.

  4. Individual preparedness and mitigation actions for a predicted earthquake in Istanbul.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tekeli-Yeşil, Sıdıka; Dedeoğlu, Necati; Tanner, Marcel; Braun-Fahrlaender, Charlotte; Obrist, Birgit

    2010-10-01

    This study investigated the process of taking action to mitigate damage and prepare for an earthquake at the individual level. Its specific aim was to identify the factors that promote or inhibit individuals in this process. The study was conducted in Istanbul, Turkey--where an earthquake is expected soon--in May and June 2006 using qualitative methods. Within our conceptual framework, three different patterns emerged among the study subjects. Outcome expectancy, helplessness, a low socioeconomic level, a culture of negligence, a lack of trust, onset time/poor predictability, and normalisation bias inhibit individuals in this process, while location, direct personal experience, a higher education level, and social interaction promote them. Drawing on these findings, the paper details key points for better disaster communication, including whom to mobilise to reach target populations, such as individuals with direct earthquake experience and women. © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2010.

  5. Development of an Earthquake Early Warning System Using Real-Time Strong Motion Signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroo Kanamori

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available As urbanization progresses worldwide, earthquakes pose serious threat to livesand properties for urban areas near major active faults on land or subduction zonesoffshore. Earthquake Early Warning (EEW can be a useful tool for reducing earthquakehazards, if the spatial relation between cities and earthquake sources is favorable for suchwarning and their citizens are properly trained to respond to earthquake warning messages.An EEW system forewarns an urban area of forthcoming strong shaking, normally with afew sec to a few tens of sec of warning time, i.e., before the arrival of the destructive Swavepart of the strong ground motion. Even a few second of advanced warning time willbe useful for pre-programmed emergency measures for various critical facilities, such asrapid-transit vehicles and high-speed trains to avoid potential derailment; it will be alsouseful for orderly shutoff of gas pipelines to minimize fire hazards, controlled shutdown ofhigh-technological manufacturing operations to reduce potential losses, and safe-guardingof computer facilities to avoid loss of vital databases. We explored a practical approach toEEW with the use of a ground-motion period parameter τc and a high-pass filtered verticaldisplacement amplitude parameter Pd from the initial 3 sec of the P waveforms. At a givensite, an earthquake magnitude could be determined from τc and the peak ground-motionvelocity (PGV could be estimated from Pd. In this method, incoming strong motion acceleration signals are recursively converted to ground velocity and displacement. A Pwavetrigger is constantly monitored. When a trigger occurs, τc and Pd are computed. Theearthquake magnitude and the on-site ground-motion intensity could be estimated and thewarning could be issued. In an ideal situation, such warnings would be available within 10sec of the origin time of a large earthquake whose subsequent ground motion may last fortens of seconds.

  6. A global earthquake discrimination scheme to optimize ground-motion prediction equation selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Daniel; Wald, David J.; Hearne, Michael

    2012-01-01

    We present a new automatic earthquake discrimination procedure to determine in near-real time the tectonic regime and seismotectonic domain of an earthquake, its most likely source type, and the corresponding ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) class to be used in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Global ShakeMap system. This method makes use of the Flinn–Engdahl regionalization scheme, seismotectonic information (plate boundaries, global geology, seismicity catalogs, and regional and local studies), and the source parameters available from the USGS National Earthquake Information Center in the minutes following an earthquake to give the best estimation of the setting and mechanism of the event. Depending on the tectonic setting, additional criteria based on hypocentral depth, style of faulting, and regional seismicity may be applied. For subduction zones, these criteria include the use of focal mechanism information and detailed interface models to discriminate among outer-rise, upper-plate, interface, and intraslab seismicity. The scheme is validated against a large database of recent historical earthquakes. Though developed to assess GMPE selection in Global ShakeMap operations, we anticipate a variety of uses for this strategy, from real-time processing systems to any analysis involving tectonic classification of sources from seismic catalogs.

  7. The performance review of EEWS(Earthquake Early Warning System) about Gyeongju earthquakes with Ml 5.1 and Ml 5.8 in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jung-Ho; Chi, Heon-Cheol; Lim, In-Seub; Seong, Yun-Jeong; Park, Jihwan

    2017-04-01

    EEW(Earthquake Early Warning) service to the public has been officially operated by KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) from 2015 in Korea. For the KMA's official EEW service, KIGAM has adopted ElarmS from UC Berkeley BSL and modified local magnitude relation, 1-D travel time curves and association procedures with real time waveform from about 201 seismic stations of KMA, KIGAM, KINS and KEPRI. There were two moderate size earthquakes with magnitude Ml 5.1 and Ml 5.8 close to Gyeongju city located at the southeastern part of Korea on Sep. 12. 2016. We have checked the performance of EEWS(Earthquake Early Warning System) named as TrigDB by KIGAM reviewing of these two Gyeongju earthquakes. The nearest station to epicenters of two earthquakes Ml 5.1(35.7697 N, 129.1904 E) and Ml 5.8(35.7632 N, 129.1898 E) was MKL which detected P phases in about 2.1 and 3.6 seconds after the origin times respectively. The first events were issued in 6.3 and 7.0 seconds from each origin time. Because of the unstable results on the early steps due to very few stations and unexpected automated analysis, KMA has the policy to wait for more 20 seconds for confirming the reliability. For these events KMA published EEW alarms in about 26 seconds after origin times with M 5.3 and M 5.9 respectively.

  8. Virtual Quake and Tsunami Squares: Scenario Earthquake and Tsunami Simulations for a Pacific Rim GNSS Tsunami Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, K.; Yoder, M. R.; Sachs, M. K.; Heien, E. M.; Donnellan, A.; Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.

    2015-12-01

    Plans for the first operational prototype for a Pacific Rim Tsunami Early Warning (TEW) system utilizing real-time data from the Global Navigational Satellite System (GNSS) are now gaining momentum. The proposed Pacific Rim TEW prototype may resemble the Japanese Meteorological Society's early warning algorithms and use earthquake parameters rapidly determined from GPS data to select the most similar earthquake and tsunami scenario from a database of precomputed scenarios to guide alerts and disaster response. To facilitate the development of this Pacific Rim TEW system, we have integrated tsunami modeling capabilities into the earthquake simulator Virtual Quake (formerly Virtual California). We will present the first results from coupling the earthquake simulator output (seafloor displacements) with the tsunami modeling method called Tsunami Squares. Combining Virtual Quake and Tsunami Squares provides a highly scalable and flexible platform for producing catalogs of tsunami scenarios for a wide range of simulated subduction zone earthquakes.

  9. Assessing Earthquake Early Warning Using Sparse Networks in Developing Countries: Case Study of the Kyrgyz Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Parolai

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The first real-time digital strong-motion network in Central Asia has been installed in the Kyrgyz Republic since 2014. Although this network consists of only 19 strong-motion stations, they are located in near-optimal locations for earthquake early warning and rapid response purposes. In fact, it is expected that this network, which utilizes the GFZ-Sentry software, allowing decentralized event assessment calculations, not only will provide useful strong motion data useful for improving future seismic hazard and risk assessment, but will serve as the backbone for regional and on-site earthquake early warning operations. Based on the location of these stations, and travel-time estimates for P- and S-waves, we have determined potential lead times for several major urban areas in Kyrgyzstan (i.e., Bishkek, Osh, and Karakol and Kazakhstan (Almaty, where we find the implementation of an efficient earthquake early warning system would provide lead times outside the blind zone ranging from several seconds up to several tens of seconds. This was confirmed by the simulation of the possible shaking (and intensity that would arise considering a series of scenarios based on historical and expected events, and how they affect the major urban centers. Such lead times would allow the instigation of automatic mitigation procedures, while the system as a whole would support prompt and efficient actions to be undertaken over large areas.

  10. The efficacy of support vector machines (SVM) in robust determination of earthquake early warning magnitudes in central Japan

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Ramakrushna Reddy; Rajesh R Nair

    2013-10-01

    This work deals with a methodology applied to seismic early warning systems which are designed to provide real-time estimation of the magnitude of an event. We will reappraise the work of Simons et al. (2006), who on the basis of wavelet approach predicted a magnitude error of ±1. We will verify and improve upon the methodology of Simons et al. (2006) by applying an SVM statistical learning machine on the time-scale wavelet decomposition methods. We used the data of 108 events in central Japan with magnitude ranging from 3 to 7.4 recorded at KiK-net network stations, for a source–receiver distance of up to 150 km during the period 1998–2011. We applied a wavelet transform on the seismogram data and calculating scale-dependent threshold wavelet coefficients. These coefficients were then classified into low magnitude and high magnitude events by constructing a maximum margin hyperplane between the two classes, which forms the essence of SVMs. Further, the classified events from both the classes were picked up and linear regressions were plotted to determine the relationship between wavelet coefficient magnitude and earthquake magnitude, which in turn helped us to estimate the earthquake magnitude of an event given its threshold wavelet coefficient. At wavelet scale number 7, we predicted the earthquake magnitude of an event within 2.7 seconds. This means that a magnitude determination is available within 2.7 s after the initial onset of the P-wave. These results shed light on the application of SVM as a way to choose the optimal regression function to estimate the magnitude from a few seconds of an incoming seismogram. This would improve the approaches from Simons et al. (2006) which use an average of the two regression functions to estimate the magnitude.

  11. Implications of some early Jewish sources for estimates of earthquake hazardin the Holy Land

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Karcz

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available For the past two millennia the Holy Land was under the yoke of successive invaders and oppressors, not a fertile ground for growth of historiographic traditions. Consequently, earthquake cataloguers had to rely largely on chronicles and texts written at distant administrative and cultural centers of the day, where earthquake destruction suffered by a culturally and economically depressed province may have been overshadowed by damage in more important parts of the empire. On this assumption, and aided by an implicit notion that the lands bounded by the Dead Sea Rift and Anatolian Fault systems are seismically contiguous, early cataloguers often extended the impact of earthquakes documented in nearby East Mediterranean countries to the Holy Land. Once published, such reports of supposed destructive intensities in Israel were used by Judaic scholars and archaeologists to date poorly defined, often metaphoric, literary seismic echoes, and to justify assigning seismic origin to equivocal signs of damage, asymmetry, or abandonment at archaeological sites of corresponding age. The spread of damage and intensity portraits are therefore enhanced and distorted, and so is their application in palaeoseismic analysis. Four test cases are presented, illustrating the use and misuse of local Judaic sources in identifying destructive intensities supposedly generated in the Holy Land by earthquakes of 92 B.C., 64 B.C. and 31 B.C., and in postulating a regional seismic catastrophe in 749 A.D..

  12. Prediction of Global Damage and Reliability Based Upon Sequential Identification and Updating of RC Structures Subject to Earthquakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Skjærbæk, P. S.; Köylüoglu, H. U.;

    The paper deals with the prediction of global damage and future structural reliability with special emphasis on sensitivity, bias and uncertainty of these predictions dependent on the statistically equivalent realizations of the future earthquake. The predictions are based on a modified Clough......-Johnston single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) oscillator with three parameters which are calibrated to fit the displacement response and the damage development in the past earthquake....

  13. Predicted Attenuation Relation and Observed Ground Motion of Gorkha Nepal Earthquake of 25 April 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, R. P.; Ahmad, R.

    2015-12-01

    A comparison of recent observed ground motion parameters of recent Gorkha Nepal earthquake of 25 April 2015 (Mw 7.8) with the predicted ground motion parameters using exitsing attenuation relation of the Himalayan region will be presented. The recent earthquake took about 8000 lives and destroyed thousands of poor quality of buildings and the earthquake was felt by millions of people living in Nepal, China, India, Bangladesh, and Bhutan. The knowledge of ground parameters are very important in developing seismic code of seismic prone regions like Himalaya for better design of buildings. The ground parameters recorded in recent earthquake event and aftershocks are compared with attenuation relations for the Himalayan region, the predicted ground motion parameters show good correlation with the observed ground parameters. The results will be of great use to Civil engineers in updating existing building codes in the Himlayan and surrounding regions and also for the evaluation of seismic hazards. The results clearly show that the attenuation relation developed for the Himalayan region should be only used, other attenuation relations based on other regions fail to provide good estimate of observed ground motion parameters.

  14. Recent Achievements of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, D. D.; Liukis, M.; Werner, M. J.; Schorlemmer, D.; Yu, J.; Maechling, P. J.; Zechar, J. D.; Jordan, T. H.

    2015-12-01

    Maria Liukis, SCEC, USC; Maximilian Werner, University of Bristol; Danijel Schorlemmer, GFZ Potsdam; John Yu, SCEC, USC; Philip Maechling, SCEC, USC; Jeremy Zechar, Swiss Seismological Service, ETH; Thomas H. Jordan, SCEC, USC, and the CSEP Working Group The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) supports a global program to conduct prospective earthquake forecasting experiments. CSEP testing centers are now operational in California, New Zealand, Japan, China, and Europe with 435 models under evaluation. The California testing center, operated by SCEC, has been operational since Sept 1, 2007, and currently hosts 30-minute, 1-day, 3-month, 1-year and 5-year forecasts, both alarm-based and probabilistic, for California, the Western Pacific, and worldwide. We have reduced testing latency, implemented prototype evaluation of M8 forecasts, and are currently developing formats and procedures to evaluate externally-hosted forecasts and predictions. These efforts are related to CSEP support of the USGS program in operational earthquake forecasting and a DHS project to register and test external forecast procedures from experts outside seismology. A retrospective experiment for the 2010-2012 Canterbury earthquake sequence has been completed, and the results indicate that some physics-based and hybrid models outperform purely statistical (e.g., ETAS) models. The experiment also demonstrates the power of the CSEP cyberinfrastructure for retrospective testing. Our current development includes evaluation strategies that increase computational efficiency for high-resolution global experiments, such as the evaluation of the Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR) model. We describe the open-source CSEP software that is available to researchers as they develop their forecast models (http://northridge.usc.edu/trac/csep/wiki/MiniCSEP). We also discuss applications of CSEP infrastructure to geodetic transient detection and how CSEP procedures are being

  15. A Hybrid Ground-Motion Prediction Equation for Earthquakes in Western Alberta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spriggs, N.; Yenier, E.; Law, A.; Moores, A. O.

    2015-12-01

    Estimation of ground-motion amplitudes that may be produced by future earthquakes constitutes the foundation of seismic hazard assessment and earthquake-resistant structural design. This is typically done by using a prediction equation that quantifies amplitudes as a function of key seismological variables such as magnitude, distance and site condition. In this study, we develop a hybrid empirical prediction equation for earthquakes in western Alberta, where evaluation of seismic hazard associated with induced seismicity is of particular interest. We use peak ground motions and response spectra from recorded seismic events to model the regional source and attenuation attributes. The available empirical data is limited in the magnitude range of engineering interest (M>4). Therefore, we combine empirical data with a simulation-based model in order to obtain seismologically informed predictions for moderate-to-large magnitude events. The methodology is two-fold. First, we investigate the shape of geometrical spreading in Alberta. We supplement the seismic data with ground motions obtained from mining/quarry blasts, in order to gain insights into the regional attenuation over a wide distance range. A comparison of ground-motion amplitudes for earthquakes and mining/quarry blasts show that both event types decay at similar rates with distance and demonstrate a significant Moho-bounce effect. In the second stage, we calibrate the source and attenuation parameters of a simulation-based prediction equation to match the available amplitude data from seismic events. We model the geometrical spreading using a trilinear function with attenuation rates obtained from the first stage, and calculate coefficients of anelastic attenuation and site amplification via regression analysis. This provides a hybrid ground-motion prediction equation that is calibrated for observed motions in western Alberta and is applicable to moderate-to-large magnitude events.

  16. Application of decision trees to the analysis of soil radon data for earthquake prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zmazek, B; Todorovski, L; Dzeroski, S; Vaupotic, J; Kobal, I

    2003-06-01

    Different regression methods have been used to predict radon concentration in soil gas on the basis of environmental data, i.e. barometric pressure, soil temperature, air temperature and rainfall. Analyses of the radon data from three stations in the Krsko basin, Slovenia, have shown that model trees outperform other regression methods. A model has been built which predicts radon concentration with a correlation of 0.8, provided it is influenced only by the environmental parameters. In periods with seismic activity this correlation is much lower. This decrease in predictive accuracy appears 1-7 days before earthquakes with local magnitude 0.8-3.3.

  17. Application of decision trees to the analysis of soil radon data for earthquake prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zmazek, B. E-mail: boris.zmazek@ijs.si; Todorovski, L.; Dzeroski, S.; Vaupotic, J.; Kobal, I

    2003-06-01

    Different regression methods have been used to predict radon concentration in soil gas on the basis of environmental data, i.e. barometric pressure, soil temperature, air temperature and rainfall. Analyses of the radon data from three stations in the Krsko basin, Slovenia, have shown that model trees outperform other regression methods. A model has been built which predicts radon concentration with a correlation of 0.8, provided it is influenced only by the environmental parameters. In periods with seismic activity this correlation is much lower. This decrease in predictive accuracy appears 1-7 days before earthquakes with local magnitude 0.8-3.3.

  18. Prediction of near-field strong ground motions for scenario earthquakes on active fault

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Haiyun; Xie Lili; Tao Xiaxin; Li Jie

    2006-01-01

    A method to predict near-field strong ground motions for scenario earthquakes on active faults is proposed. First,macro-source parameters characterizing the entire source area, i.e., global source parameters, including fault length, fault width,rupture area, average slip on the fault plane, etc., are estimated by seismogeology survey, seismicity and seismic scaling laws.Second, slip distributions characterizing heterogeneity or roughness on the fault plane, i.e., local source parameters, are reproduced/evaluated by the hybrid slip model. Finally, the finite fault source model, developed from both the global and local source parameters, is combined with the stochastically synthetic technique of ground motion using the dynamic corner frequency based on seismology. The proposed method is applied to simulate the acceleration time histories on three base-rock stations during the 1994 Northridge earthquake. Comparisons between the predicted and recorded acceleration time histories show that the method is feasible and practicable.

  19. Inelastic spectra to predict period elongation of structures under earthquake loading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Katsanos, Evangelos; Sextos, A.G.

    2015-01-01

    Period lengthening, exhibited by structures when subjected to strong ground motions, constitutes an implicit proxy of structural inelasticity and associated damage. However, the reliable prediction of the inelastic period is tedious and a multi-parametric task, which is related to both epistemic ...... for period lengthening as a function of Ry and Tel. These equations may be used in the framework of the earthquake record selection and scaling....

  20. WHY WE CANNOT PREDICT STRONG EARTHQUAKES IN THE EARTH’S CRUST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iosif L. Gufeld

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In the past decade, earthquake disasters caused multiple fatalities and significant economic losses and challenged the modern civilization. The wellknown achievements and growing power of civilization are backstrapped when facing the Nature. The question arises, what hinders solving a problem of earthquake prediction, while longterm and continuous seismic monitoring systems are in place in many regions of the world. For instance, there was no forecast of the Japan Great Earthquake of March 11, 2011, despite the fact that monitoring conditions for its prediction were unique. Its focal zone was 100–200 km away from the monitoring network installed in the area of permanent seismic hazard, which is subject to nonstop and longterm seismic monitoring. Lesson should be learned from our common fiasco in forecasting, taking into account research results obtained during the past 50–60 years. It is now evident that we failed to identify precursors of the earthquakes. Prior to the earthquake occurrence, the observed local anomalies of various fields reflected other processes that were mistakenly viewed as processes of preparation for largescale faulting. For many years, geotectonic situations were analyzed on the basis of the physics of destruction of laboratory specimens, which was applied to the lithospheric conditions. Many researchers realize that such an approach is inaccurate. Nonetheless, persistent attempts are being undertaken with application of modern computation to detect anomalies of various fields, which may be interpreted as earthquake precursors. In our opinion, such illusory intentions were smashed by the Great Japan Earthquake (Figure 6. It is also obvious that sufficient attention has not been given yet to fundamental studies of seismic processes.This review presents the authors’ opinion concerning the origin of the seismic process and strong earthquakes, being part of the process. The authors realize that a wide discussion is

  1. Short-term earthquake prediction: Current status of seismo-electromagnetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uyeda, Seiya; Nagao, Toshiyasu; Kamogawa, Masashi

    2009-05-01

    Loss of human lives as a result of earthquakes is caused overwhelmingly by the collapse of buildings within less than a few minutes of main shocks. The most urgent countermeasure consists of two key elements. One is strengthening of weak structures and the other is short-term earthquake prediction. Short-term prediction needs precursors. Although some promising precursors are reported, the prevailing views in Japan and elsewhere are overly pessimistic. The pessimism largely roots in the fact that short-term precursors are generally non-seismic and tools developed for seismology are not designed to detect them. Nonetheless, nationally funded large-scale earthquake prediction programs always emphasize the need to reinforce seismometer networks. They do not take into account the views of those in the science community who point to the importance of non-seismic precursors. While there are well-founded causes to be skeptical, the situation needs to be improved. One reason for skepticism is that the observations of precursors have not yet been perfect enough and another is that some important fundamental aspects of non-seismic precursors are still unresolved. We review some of these problems.

  2. Early Adolescent Affect Predicts Later Life Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kansky, Jessica; Allen, Joseph P; Diener, Ed

    2016-07-01

    Subjective well-being as a predictor for later behavior and health has highlighted its relationship to health, work performance, and social relationships. However, the majority of such studies neglect the developmental nature of well-being in contributing to important changes across the transition to adulthood. To examine the potential role of subjective well-being as a long-term predictor of critical life outcomes, we examined indicators of positive and negative affect at age 14 as predictors of relationship, adjustment, self-worth, and career outcomes a decade later at ages 23 to 25, controlling for family income and gender. We utilised multi-informant methods including reports from the target participant, close friends, and romantic partners in a demographically diverse community sample of 184 participants. Early adolescent positive affect predicted fewer relationship problems (less self-reported and partner-reported conflict, and greater friendship attachment as rated by close peers) and healthy adjustment to adulthood (lower levels of depression, anxiety, and loneliness). It also predicted positive work functioning (higher levels of career satisfaction and job competence) and increased self-worth. Negative affect did not significantly predict any of these important life outcomes. In addition to predicting desirable mean levels of later outcomes, early positive affect predicted beneficial changes across time in many outcomes. The findings extend early research on the beneficial outcomes of subjective well-being by having an earlier assessment of well-being, including informant reports in measuring a large variety of outcome variables, and by extending the findings to a lower socioeconomic group of a diverse and younger sample. The results highlight the importance of considering positive affect as an important component of subjective well-being distinct from negative affect. © 2016 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

  3. Prediction of crime and early interventions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Mogens

    This paper presents a prospective longitudinal study that attempts to predict juvenile delinquency measured by first contact with the police (arrest, pre-trial detention or charges of crimes) taking a complete cohort of all children born in Denmark in 1984 (N=54,458). The children are followed from...... birth to early adulthood in 2006. The predictors represent the major crime reduction paradigms, such as family circumstance and individual skills. A discrete-time Cox model is used to allow for changing covariates over time. The population had 6,075 first time contacts with the police over the 300......,591 person-years available. More than twenty risk factors were significantly predicting first-time contact with the police. Predictions were substantially more accurate than chance. Results also showed that the proportion of ‘false-positives’ were about 77 % of estimated high-risk subjects when observing...

  4. VELOCITY AND GRAVITATIONAL EFFECTS ON GPS SATELLITES: AN OUTLINE OF EARLY PREDICTION AND DETECTION OF STRONG EARTHQUAKES EFECTOS DE VELOCIDAD Y DE GRAVITACIÓN EN GPS SATELITALES: UN ESQUEMA PARA LA PREDICCIÓN Y DETECCIÓN TEMPRANA DE FUERTES TERREMOTOS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H Torres-Silva

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Today, the global navigation satellite systems, GPS used as global positioning systems, are based on a gravitational model and hence they are only operative when several relativistic effects are taken into account. The most important relativistic effects (to order 1/c² are: the Doppler red shift of second order, due to the motion of the satellite (special relativity and the Einstein gravitational blue shift effect of the satellite clock frequency (equivalence principle of general relativity. Both of these effects can be treated at a basic level, making for an appealing application of relativity to every life. This paper examines the significant effects that must be taken into account in the design and operation of systems GPS without resorting to the theory of special and general relativity, yielding the same results for these systems, where one of the effects can be treated with the time contraction approach proposed here and the other using the Newton's theory as an approximation of the General Relativity. This approach allow us to propose an outline of early prediction and detection on strong earthquake phenomena.Hoy en día, los sistemas de navegación global por satélite, GPS utilizados como sistemas de posicionamiento global, se basan en un modelo gravitacional y por lo tanto solo son operativos cuando varios efectos relativistas son tenidos en cuenta. Los efectos relativistas más importantes (hasta el orden 1/c² son: el desplazamiento Doppler al rojo de segundo orden, debido al movimiento del satélite (la relatividad especial y el efecto gravitacional de Einstein corrimiento al azul de la frecuencia de reloj del satélite (principio de equivalencia de la relatividad general. Ambos efectos pueden ser tratados en un nivel básico, apelando a la relatividad del día a día. Este artículo examina los efectos significativos que deben tenerse en cuenta en la operación de sistemas de GPS sin tener que recurrir a las teorías de la

  5. Recent development of the earthquake strong motion-intensity catalog and intensity prediction equations for Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zare, Mehdi

    2016-12-01

    This study aims to develop a new earthquake strong motion-intensity catalog as well as intensity prediction equations for Iran based on the available data. For this purpose, all the sites which had both recorded strong motion and intensity values throughout the region were first searched. Then, the data belonging to the 306 identified sites were processed, and the results were compiled as a new strong motion-intensity catalog. Based on this new catalog, two empirical equations between the values of intensity and the ground motion parameters (GMPs) for the Iranian earthquakes were calculated. At the first step, earthquake "intensity" was considered as a function of five independent GMPs including "Log (PHA)," "moment magnitude (MW)," "distance to epicenter," "site type," and "duration," and a multiple stepwise regression was calculated. Regarding the correlations between the parameters and the effectiveness coefficients of the predictors, the Log (PHA) was recognized as the most effective parameter on the earthquake "intensity," while the parameter "site type" was removed from the equations since it was determines as the least significant variable. Then, at the second step, a simple ordinary least squares (OLS) regression was fitted only between the parameters intensity and the Log (PHA) which resulted in more over/underestimated intensity values comparing to the results of the multiple intensity-GMPs regression. However, for rapid response purposes, the simple OLS regression may be more useful comparing to the multiple regression due to its data availability and simplicity. In addition, according to 50 selected earthquakes, an empirical relation between the macroseismic intensity (I0) and MW was developed.

  6. The International Platform on Earthquake Early Warning Systems (IP-EEWS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, Jair; Fanchiotti, Margherita

    2017-04-01

    The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 recognizes the need to "substantially increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster risk information and assessments to the people by 2030" as one of its global targets (target "g"). While considerable progress has been made in recent decades, early warning systems (EWSs) continue to be less developed for geo-hazards and significant challenges remain in advancing the development of EWSs for specific hazards, particularly for fastest onset hazards such as earthquakes. An earthquake early warning system (EEWS) helps in disseminating timely information about potentially catastrophic earthquake hazards to the public, emergency managers and the private sector to provide enough time to implement automatized emergency measures. At the same time, these systems help to reduce considerably the CO2 emissions produced by the catastrophic impacts and subsequent effects of earthquakes, such as those generated by fires, collapses, and pollution (among others), as well as those produced in the recovery and reconstruction processes. In recent years, EEWSs have been developed independently in few countries: EEWSs have shown operational in Japan and Mexico, while other regions in California (USA), Turkey, Italy, Canada, South Korea and China (including Taiwan) are in the development stages or under restricted applications. Many other countries in the Indian Subcontinent, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Middle East, Eastern Africa, Southeast Africa, as well as Central America, South America and the Caribbean, are located in some of the most seismically active regions in the world, or present moderate seismicity but high vulnerability, and would strongly benefit from the development of EEWSs. Given that, in many instances, the development of an EEWS still requires further testing, increased density coverage in seismic observation stations, regional coordination, and further scientific

  7. Knowledge Representation Methods in Expert System for Earthquake Prediction ESEP 3.0

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Wei; Wu Gengfeng; Zhang Bofeng; Zheng Zhaobi; Liu Hui; Li Sheng

    2005-01-01

    Knowledge representation is a key to the building of expert systems. The performance of knowledge representation methods directly affects the intelligence level and the problem-solving ability of the system. There are various kinds of knowledge representation methods in ESEP3.0. In this paper, the authors introduce the knowledge representation methods, such as structure knowledge, seismological and precursory forecast knowledge, machine learning knowledge, synthetic prediction knowledge, knowledge to validate and verify certainty factors of anomalous evidence and support knowledge, etc. and propose a model for validation of certainty factors of anomalous evidence. The knowledge representation methods represent all kinds of earthquake prediction knowledge well.

  8. The middle-long term prediction of the February 3, 1996 Lijiang earthquake (M S=7) by the ``criterion of activity in quiescence''

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng-Jian, Guo; Bao-Yan, Qin

    2000-07-01

    Earthquake activities in history are characterized by active and quiet periods. In the quiet period, the place where earthquake M S≥6 occurred means more elastic energy store and speedy energy accumulation there. When an active period of big earthquake activity appeared in wide region, in the place where earthquake (M S≥6) occurred in the past quiet period, the big earthquake with magnitude of 7 or more often occur there. We call the above-mentioned judgement for predicting big earthquake the “criterion of activity in quiescence”. The criterion is relatively effective for predicting location of big earthquake. In general, error of predicting epicenter is no more than 100 km. According to the criterion, we made successfully a middle-term prediction on the 1996 Lijiang earthquake in Yunnan Province, the error of predicted location is about 50 km. Besides, the 1994 Taiwan strait earthquake (M S=7.3), the 1995 Yunnan-Myanmar boundary earthquake (M S=7.2) and the Mani earthquake (M S=7.9) in north Tibet are accordant with the retrospective predictions by the “criterion of activity in quiescence”. The windows of “activity in quiescence” identified statistically by us are 1940 1945, 1958 1961 and 1979 1986. Using the “criterion of activity in quiescence” to predict big earthquake in the mainland of China, the earthquake defined by “activity in quiescence” has magnitude of 6 or more; For the Himalayas seismic belt, the Pacific seismic belt and the north-west boundary seismic belt of Xinjiang, the earthquake defined by “activity in quiescence” has magnitude of 7, which is corresponding to earthquake with magnitude of much more than 7 in future. For the regions where there are not tectonically and historically a possibility of occurring big earthquake (M S=7), the criterion of activity in quiescence is not effective.

  9. A General Introduction of the Earthquake Early Warning System Technology Developed in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, T.

    2015-12-01

    Since the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, a dramatic progress on earthquake early warning (EEW) has been made by Institute of Care-life (ICL) in China. The research on EEW by ICL covers choosing appropriate sensors, methods of installing the sensors, data automatic process methods of the seismic waves for EEW, methods of applying of EEW warnings for public, schools and life-line projects. ICL innovatively applies distributed computing and cloud computing technology. So far, ICL has deployed over 5500 EEW sensors in China, which is 5 times the number of EEW sensors in Japan, covering more than 2.1 million square kilometers. Since June, 2011, over 5000 earthquakes, with 28 of them are destructive quakes, have triggered the EEWS with no false alert. The root mean square (RMS) error of the magnitude for the 28 destructive quakes is 0.32. In addition, innovative work is done to suppress false alarm and miss alarm, which pushes forward the application of EEW in China. The technology is also being applied in Nepal now.

  10. Prediction of Global and Localized Damage and Future Reliability for RC Structures subject to Earthquakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köyluoglu, H.U.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Cakmak, A.S.;

    1997-01-01

    The paper deals with the prediction of global and localized damage and the future reliability estimation of partly damaged reinforced concrete (RC) structures under seismic excitation. Initially, a global maximum softening damage indicator is considered based on the variation of the eigenfrequency...... of the first mode due to the stiffness and strength deterioration of the structure. The hysteresis of the first mode is modelled by a Clough and Johnston hysteretic oscillator with a degrading elastic fraction of the restoring force. The linear parameters of the model are assumed to be known, measured before....... The proposed model is next generalized for the MDOF system. Using the adapted models for the structure and the global damage state, the global damage in a future earthquake can then be estimated when a suitable earthquake model is applied. The performance of the model is illustrated on RC frames which were...

  11. Prediction of Global and Localized Damage and Future Reliability for RC Structures subject to Earthquakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köyluoglu, H.U.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Cakmak, A.S.;

    1994-01-01

    The paper deals with the prediction of global and localized damage and the future reliability estimation of partly damaged reinforced concrete (RC) structures under seismic excitation. Initially, a global maximum softening damage indicator is considered based on the variation of the eigenfrequency...... of the first mode due to the stiffness and strength deterioration of the structure. The hysteresis of the first mode is modelled by a Clough and Johnston hysteretic oscillator with a degrading elastic fraction of the restoring force. The linear parameters of the model are assumed to be known, measured before....... The proposed model is next generalized for the MDOF system. Using the adapted models for the structure and the global damage state, the global damage in a future earthquake can then be estimated when a suitable earthquake model is applied. The performance of the model is illustrated on RC frames which were...

  12. Sounding the Alert: Designing an Effective Voice for Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, E. R.; Given, D. D.

    2015-12-01

    The USGS is working with partners to develop the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system (http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2014/3083/) to protect life and property along the U.S. West Coast, where the highest national seismic hazard is concentrated. EEW sends an alert that shaking from an earthquake is on its way (in seconds to tens of seconds) to allow recipients or automated systems to take appropriate actions at their location to protect themselves and/or sensitive equipment. ShakeAlert is transitioning toward a production prototype phase in which test users might begin testing applications of the technology. While a subset of uses will be automated (e.g., opening fire house doors), other applications will alert individuals by radio or cellphone notifications and require behavioral decisions to protect themselves (e.g., "Drop, Cover, Hold On"). The project needs to select and move forward with a consistent alert sound to be widely and quickly recognized as an earthquake alert. In this study we combine EEW science and capabilities with an understanding of human behavior from the social and psychological sciences to provide insight toward the design of effective sounds to help best motivate proper action by alert recipients. We present a review of existing research and literature, compiled as considerations and recommendations for alert sound characteristics optimized for EEW. We do not yet address wording of an audible message about the earthquake (e.g., intensity and timing until arrival of shaking or possible actions), although it will be a future component to accompany the sound. We consider pitch(es), loudness, rhythm, tempo, duration, and harmony. Important behavioral responses to sound to take into account include that people respond to discordant sounds with anxiety, can be calmed by harmony and softness, and are innately alerted by loud and abrupt sounds, although levels high enough to be auditory stressors can negatively impact human judgment.

  13. Earthquake prediction using extinct monogenetic volcanoes: A possible new research strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szakács, Alexandru

    2011-04-01

    Volcanoes are extremely effective transmitters of matter, energy and information from the deep Earth towards its surface. Their capacities as information carriers are far to be fully exploited so far. Volcanic conduits can be viewed in general as rod-like or sheet-like vertical features with relatively homogenous composition and structure crosscutting geological structures of far more complexity and compositional heterogeneity. Information-carrying signals such as earthquake precursor signals originating deep below the Earth surface are transmitted with much less loss of information through homogenous vertically extended structures than through the horizontally segmented heterogeneous lithosphere or crust. Volcanic conduits can thus be viewed as upside-down "antennas" or waveguides which can be used as privileged pathways of any possible earthquake precursor signal. In particular, conduits of monogenetic volcanoes are promising transmitters of deep Earth information to be received and decoded at surface monitoring stations because the expected more homogenous nature of their rock-fill as compared to polygenetic volcanoes. Among monogenetic volcanoes those with dominantly effusive activity appear as the best candidates for privileged earthquake monitoring sites. In more details, effusive monogenetic volcanic conduits filled with rocks of primitive parental magma composition indicating direct ascent from sub-lithospheric magma-generating areas are the most suitable. Further selection criteria may include age of the volcanism considered and the presence of mantle xenoliths in surface volcanic products indicating direct and straightforward link between the deep lithospheric mantle and surface through the conduit. Innovative earthquake prediction research strategies can be based and developed on these grounds by considering conduits of selected extinct monogenetic volcanoes and deep trans-crustal fractures as privileged emplacement sites of seismic monitoring stations

  14. Prediction of the area affected by earthquake-induced landsliding based on seismological parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marc, Odin; Meunier, Patrick; Hovius, Niels

    2017-07-01

    We present an analytical, seismologically consistent expression for the surface area of the region within which most landslides triggered by an earthquake are located (landslide distribution area). This expression is based on scaling laws relating seismic moment, source depth, and focal mechanism with ground shaking and fault rupture length and assumes a globally constant threshold of acceleration for onset of systematic mass wasting. The seismological assumptions are identical to those recently used to propose a seismologically consistent expression for the total volume and area of landslides triggered by an earthquake. To test the accuracy of the model we gathered geophysical information and estimates of the landslide distribution area for 83 earthquakes. To reduce uncertainties and inconsistencies in the estimation of the landslide distribution area, we propose an objective definition based on the shortest distance from the seismic wave emission line containing 95 % of the total landslide area. Without any empirical calibration the model explains 56 % of the variance in our dataset, and predicts 35 to 49 out of 83 cases within a factor of 2, depending on how we account for uncertainties on the seismic source depth. For most cases with comprehensive landslide inventories we show that our prediction compares well with the smallest region around the fault containing 95 % of the total landslide area. Aspects ignored by the model that could explain the residuals include local variations of the threshold of acceleration and processes modulating the surface ground shaking, such as the distribution of seismic energy release on the fault plane, the dynamic stress drop, and rupture directivity. Nevertheless, its simplicity and first-order accuracy suggest that the model can yield plausible and useful estimates of the landslide distribution area in near-real time, with earthquake parameters issued by standard detection routines.

  15. Correlations and Non-predictability in the Time Evolution of Earthquake Ruptures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elkhoury, J. E.; Knopoff, L.

    2007-12-01

    The characterization of the time evolution of ruptures is one of the important aspects of the earthquake process. What makes a rupture, that starts small, to become a big one or end very quickly resulting in a small earthquake is central to understanding the physics of the time evolution of ruptures. Establishing whether there are any correlations in time, between the initiation of the rupture and its ultimate size, is a step in the right direction. Here, we analyze three source-time function data sets. The first is produced by the generation of repeated rupture events on a 2D heterogeneous, in-plane, dynamical model, while the second is produced by an-age dependent critical branching model. The third is the source-time function data base of Ruff [1]. We formulate the problem in terms of two questions. 1) Are there any correlations between the moment release at the beginning of the rupture and the total moment release during the entire rupture? 2) Can we predict the final size of an earthquake, once it has started and without any a posteriori information, by just knowing the moment release up to a certain time τ? Using the three data bases, the answer to the first question is yes and no to the second. The longer τ is, the stronger the correlations are between what goes on at the initiation and the final size. But, for τ fixed, and not a major fraction of the rupture time, there is no predictability of the rupture size. In particular, if a rupture starts with a very large moment release during time τ, it becomes a large earthquake. On the other hand, large earthquakes might start with very small moment release during τ; the non-predictability is due to the heterogeneities. The randomness in the critical branching model mimics the effect of the heterogeneities in the crust and in the 2D model. \\begin{thebibliography}{99} \\bibitem{ruff} Ruff, L. J., http://www.geo.lsa.umich.edu/SeismoObs/STF.html

  16. An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor

    2016-01-01

    A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities' preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model's algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties.

  17. The Potential of Continuous, Local Atomic Clock Measurements for Earthquake Prediction and Volcanology

    CERN Document Server

    Bondarescu, Mihai; Jetzer, Philippe; Lundgren, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    Modern optical atomic clocks along with the optical fiber technology currently being developed can measure the geoid, which is the equipotential surface that extends the mean sea level on continents, to a precision that competes with existing technology. In this proceeding, we point out that atomic clocks have the potential to not only map the sea level surface on continents, but also look at variations of the geoid as a function of time with unprecedented timing resolution. The local time series of the geoid has a plethora of applications. These include potential improvement in the predictions of earthquakes and volcanoes, and closer monitoring of ground uplift in areas where hydraulic fracturing is performed.

  18. Ground motion prediction and earthquake scenarios in the volcanic region of Mt. Etna (Southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langer, Horst; Tusa, Giuseppina; Luciano, Scarfi; Azzaro, Raffaela

    2013-04-01

    One of the principal issues in the assessment of seismic hazard is the prediction of relevant ground motion parameters, e. g., peak ground acceleration, radiated seismic energy, response spectra, at some distance from the source. Here we first present ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) for horizontal components for the area of Mt. Etna and adjacent zones. Our analysis is based on 4878 three component seismograms related to 129 seismic events with local magnitudes ranging from 3.0 to 4.8, hypocentral distances up to 200 km, and focal depth shallower than 30 km. Accounting for the specific seismotectonic and geological conditions of the considered area we have divided our data set into three sub-groups: (i) Shallow Mt. Etna Events (SEE), i.e., typically volcano-tectonic events in the area of Mt. Etna having a focal depth less than 5 km; (ii) Deep Mt. Etna Events (DEE), i.e., events in the volcanic region, but with a depth greater than 5 km; (iii) Extra Mt. Etna Events (EEE), i.e., purely tectonic events falling outside the area of Mt. Etna. The predicted PGAs for the SEE are lower than those predicted for the DEE and the EEE, reflecting their lower high-frequency energy content. We explain this observation as due to the lower stress drops. The attenuation relationships are compared to the ones most commonly used, such as by Sabetta and Pugliese (1987)for Italy, or Ambraseys et al. (1996) for Europe. Whereas our GMPEs are based on small earthquakes, the magnitudes covered by the two above mentioned attenuation relationships regard moderate to large magnitudes (up to 6.8 and 7.9, respectively). We show that the extrapolation of our GMPEs to magnitues beyond the range covered by the data is misleading; at the same time also the afore mentioned relationships fail to predict ground motion parameters for our data set. Despite of these discrepancies, we can exploit our data for setting up scenarios for strong earthquakes for which no instrumental recordings are

  19. Early menopause predicts angina after myocardial infarction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parashar, Susmita; Reid, Kimberly J.; Spertus, John A.; Shaw, Leslee J.; Vaccarino, Viola

    2011-01-01

    Objective Population studies have shown that age at menopause (AAM) predicts coronary heart disease. It is unknown, however, whether early menopause predicts post–myocardial infarction (MI) angina. We examined whether younger AAM increases risk of post-MI angina. Methods In a prospective multicenter MI registry, 493 postmenopausal women were enrolled (mean ± SD age, 65.4 ± 11.3 y, and mean ± SD AAM, 45.2 ± 7.8 y). We categorized AAM into 40 years or younger, 41 to 49 years, and 50 years or older. In the multivariable analysis, we examined whether AAM predicted 1-year post-MI angina and severity of angina after adjusting for angina before MI, demographics, comorbidities, MI severity, and quality of care (QOC). Results Women with early AAM (≤40 y; n = 132, 26.8%) were younger and more often smokers but were as likely to have comorbidities as were women with an AAM of 50 years or older. Although there were no differences in pre-MI angina, MI severity, obstructive coronary disease, and QOC based on AAM, the rate of 1-year angina was higher in women with an AAM of 40 years or younger (32.4%) than in women with an AAM of 50 years or older (12.2%). In the multivariable analysis, women with an AAM of 40 years or younger had more than twice the risk of angina (relative risk, 2.09; 95% CI, 1.38–3.17) and a higher severity of angina (odds ratio, 2.65; 95% CI, 1.34–5.22 for a higher severity level) compared with women with an AAM of 50 years or older. Conclusions Women with early menopause are at higher risk of angina after MI, independent of comorbidities, severity of MI, and QOC. The use of a simple question regarding AAM may help in the identification of women who need closer follow-up, careful evaluation, and intervention to improve their symptoms and quality of life after MI. PMID:20651619

  20. Earthquake behaviour and large-event predictability in a sheared granular stick-slip system

    CERN Document Server

    Dalton, F; Dalton, Fergal; Corcoran, David

    2002-01-01

    We present results from a physical experiment which demonstrates that a sheared granular medium behaves in a manner analogous to earthquake activity. The device consists of an annular plate rotating over a granular medium in a stick-slip fashion. Previous observations by us include a bounded critical state with a power law distribution of event energy consistent with the Gutenberg-Richter law, here we also reveal stair-case seismicity, clustering, foreshocks, aftershocks and seismic quiescence. Subcritical and supercritical regimes have also been observed by us depending on the system configuration. We investigate the predictability of large events. Using the quiescence between `shock' events as an alarm condition, it is found that large events are respectively unpredictable, marginally predictable and highly predictable in the subcritical, critical and supercritical states.

  1. Real-Time Earthquake Risk Mitigation Of Infrastructures Using Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning and Rapid Response Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulfikar, Can; Pinar, Ali; Tunc, Suleyman; Erdik, Mustafa

    2014-05-01

    The Istanbul EEW network consisting of 10 inland and 5 OBS strong motion stations located close to the Main Marmara Fault zone is operated by KOERI. Data transmission between the remote stations and the base station at KOERI is provided both with satellite and fiber optic cable systems. The continuous on-line data from these stations is used to provide real time warning for emerging potentially disastrous earthquakes. The data transmission time from the remote stations to the KOERI data center is a few milliseconds through fiber optic lines and less than a second via satellites. The early warning signal (consisting three alarm levels) is communicated to the appropriate servo shut-down systems of the receipent facilities, that automatically decide proper action based on the alarm level. Istanbul Gas Distribution Corporation (IGDAS) is one of the end users of the EEW signal. IGDAS, the primary natural gas provider in Istanbul, operates an extensive system 9,867 km of gas lines with 550 district regulators and 474,000 service boxes. State of-the-art protection systems automatically cut natural gas flow when breaks in the pipelines are detected. Since 2005, buildings in Istanbul using natural gas are required to install seismometers that automatically cut natural gas flow when certain thresholds are exceeded. IGDAS uses a sophisticated SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) system to monitor the state-of-health of its pipeline network. This system provides real-time information about quantities related to pipeline monitoring, including input-output pressure, drawing information, positions of station and RTU (remote terminal unit) gates, slum shut mechanism status at 581 district regulator sites. The SCADA system of IGDAŞ receives the EEW signal from KOERI and decide the proper actions according to the previously specified ground acceleration levels. Presently, KOERI sends EEW signal to the SCADA system of IGDAS Natural Gas Network of Istanbul. The EEW signal

  2. Regional seismic hazard for Revithoussa, Greece: an earthquake early warning Shield and selection of alert signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Xu

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The feasibility of an earthquake early warning Shield in Greece is being explored as a European demonstration project. This will be the first early warning system in Europe. The island of Revithoussa is a liquid natural gas storage facility near Athens from which a pipeline runs to a gas distribution centre in Athens. The Shield is being centred on these facilities. The purpose here is to analyze seismicity and seismic hazard in relation to the Shield centre and the remote sensor sites in the Shield network, eventually to help characterize the hazard levels, seismic signals and ground vibration levels that might be observed or create an alert situation at a station. Thus this paper mainly gives estimation of local seismic hazard in the regional working area of Revithoussa by studying extreme peak ground acceleration (PGA and magnitudes. Within the Shield region, the most important zone to be detected is WNW from the Shield centre and is at a relatively short distance (50 km or less, the Gulf of Corinth (active normal faults region. This is the critical zone for early warning of strong ground shaking. A second key region of seismicity is at an intermediate distance (100 km or more from the centre, the Hellenic seismic zone south or southeast from Peloponnisos. A third region to be detected would be the northeastern region from the centre and is at a relatively long distance (about 150 km, Lemnos Island and neighboring region. Several parameters are estimated to characterize the seismicity and hazard. These include: the 50-year PGA with 90% probability of not being exceeded (pnbe using Theodulidis & Papazachos strong motion attenuation for Greece, PGANTP; the 50-year magnitude and also at the 90% pnbe, M50 and MP50, respectively. There are also estimates of the earthquake that is most likely to be felt at a damaging intensity level, these are the most perceptible earthquakes at intensities VI, VII and VIII with magnitudes MVI, MVII and MVIII

  3. GPS Seismology and Earthquake Early Warning along the Southern San Andreas Fault System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Y.; Jackson, M. E.

    2007-05-01

    We are in the process of upgrading CGPS stations in southern California to high-rate (1-10 Hz) real-time (latency Cerro Prieto faults, the region of highest strain rate in southern California and the narrowest part of the North America-Pacific plate boundary. South of the Big Bend, the zero velocity contour (the "boundary") between the North America and Pacific plates does not follow the SAF segment, but rather is located just east of the San Jacinto Fault (SJF) segment and then follows the Imperial and Cerro Prieto faults. The primary purpose of the real-time network is to serve as an early warning system for a large earthquake along the southern San Andreas Fault System by quickly measuring coseismic displacements, and also for GPS seismology to rapidly measure the associated dynamic displacements. The network, called the California Real Time Network (CRTN), also supplies data for real GPS surveys within the region and will provide rapid displacement waveforms to the SCEC data archive at Caltech in the event of a medium to large earthquake. Although the real-time data flow is currently at 1 Hz, the PBO stations have an internal buffer that records GPS data at a 10 Hz rate.

  4. Observation of Magnetic Signals from Earthquake Faulting Using High-resolution HTS-SQUID Magnetometer: Feasibility of Super-early Warning of Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katori, Y.; Okubo, K.; Hato, T.; Tsukamoto, A.; Tanabe, K.; Onishi, N.; Furukawa, H.; Isogami, S.; Takeuchi, N.

    2015-12-01

    with the earthquake using our high-resolution HTS-SQUID magnetometer systems. Further efforts in the future would support a feasibility of a new system for a super-early warning of destructive earthquakes with the combined seismic-magnetic measurements.

  5. Incorporating Low-Cost Seismometers into the Central Weather Bureau Seismic Network for Earthquake Early Warning in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Da-Yi Chen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A dense seismic network can increase Earthquake Early Warning (EEW system capability to estimate earthquake information with higher accuracy. It is also critical for generating fast, robust earthquake alarms before strong-ground shaking hits the target area. However, building a dense seismic network via traditional seismometers is too expensive and may not be practical. Using low-cost Micro-Electro Mechanical System (MEMS accelerometers is a potential solution to quickly deploy a large number of sensors around the monitored region. An EEW system constructed using a dense seismic network with 543 MEMS sensors in Taiwan is presented. The system also incorporates the official seismic network of _ Central Weather Bureau (CWB. The real-time data streams generated by the two networks are integrated using the Earthworm software. This paper illustrates the methods used by the integrated system for estimating earthquake information and evaluates the system performance. We applied the Earthworm picker for the seismograms recorded by the MEMS sensors (Chen et al. 2015 following new picking constraints to accurately detect P-wave arrivals and use a new regression equation for estimating earthquake magnitudes. An off-line test was implemented using 46 earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from ML 4.5 - 6.5 to calibrate the system. The experimental results show that the integrated system has stable source parameter results and issues alarms much faster than the current system run by the CWB seismic network (CWBSN.

  6. Real-time determination of the worst tsunami scenario based on Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furuya, Takashi; Koshimura, Shunichi; Hino, Ryota; Ohta, Yusaku; Inoue, Takuya

    2016-04-01

    In recent years, real-time tsunami inundation forecasting has been developed with the advances of dense seismic monitoring, GPS Earth observation, offshore tsunami observation networks, and high-performance computing infrastructure (Koshimura et al., 2014). Several uncertainties are involved in tsunami inundation modeling and it is believed that tsunami generation model is one of the great uncertain sources. Uncertain tsunami source model has risk to underestimate tsunami height, extent of inundation zone, and damage. Tsunami source inversion using observed seismic, geodetic and tsunami data is the most effective to avoid underestimation of tsunami, but needs to expect more time to acquire the observed data and this limitation makes difficult to terminate real-time tsunami inundation forecasting within sufficient time. Not waiting for the precise tsunami observation information, but from disaster management point of view, we aim to determine the worst tsunami source scenario, for the use of real-time tsunami inundation forecasting and mapping, using the seismic information of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) that can be obtained immediately after the event triggered. After an earthquake occurs, JMA's EEW estimates magnitude and hypocenter. With the constraints of earthquake magnitude, hypocenter and scaling law, we determine possible multi tsunami source scenarios and start searching the worst one by the superposition of pre-computed tsunami Green's functions, i.e. time series of tsunami height at offshore points corresponding to 2-dimensional Gaussian unit source, e.g. Tsushima et al., 2014. Scenario analysis of our method consists of following 2 steps. (1) Searching the worst scenario range by calculating 90 scenarios with various strike and fault-position. From maximum tsunami height of 90 scenarios, we determine a narrower strike range which causes high tsunami height in the area of concern. (2) Calculating 900 scenarios that have different strike, dip, length

  7. Status of Public Earthquake Early Warning in the U.S

    Science.gov (United States)

    Given, D. D.

    2013-12-01

    Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) is a proven use of seismological science that can give people and businesses outside the epicentral area of a large earthquake up to a minute to take protective actions before the most destructive shaking hits them. Since 2006 several organizations have been collaborating to create such a system in the United States. These groups include the US Geological Survey, Caltech, UC Berkeley, the University of Washington, the Southern California Earthquake Center, the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zürich, the California Office of Emergency Services, and the California Geological Survey. A demonstration version of the system, called ShakeAlert, began sending test notifications to selected users in California in January 2012. In August 2012 San Francisco's Bay Area Rapid Transit district began slowing and stopping trains in response to strong ground shaking. The next step in the project is to progress to a production prototype for the west coast. The system is built on top of the considerable technical and organizational earthquake monitoring infrastructure of the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS). While a fully functional, robust, public EEW system will require significant new investment and development in several major areas, modest progress is being made with current resources. First, high-quality sensors must be installed with sufficient density, particularly near source faults. Where possible, we are upgrading and augmenting the existing ANSS networks on the west coast. Second, data telemetry from those sensors must be engineered for speed and reliability. Next, robust central processing infrastructure is being designed and built. Also, computer algorithms to detect and characterize the evolving earthquake must be further developed and tested. Last year the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation funded USGS, Caltech, UCB and UW to accelerate R&D efforts. Every available means of distributing alerts must be used to insure the

  8. Experience of an orthoplastic limb salvage team after the Haiti earthquake: analysis of caseload and early outcomes.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Clover, A James P

    2011-06-01

    After the devastating earthquake in Haiti on January 12, 2010, a British orthoplastic limb salvage team was mobilized. The team operated in a suburb of Port-au-Prince from January 20, 2010. This analysis gives an overview of the caseload and early outcomes.

  9. Long-Term Prediction of Large Earthquakes: When Does Quasi-Periodic Behavior Occur?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sykes, L. R.

    2003-12-01

    I argue that the prediction of large earthquakes for time scales of a few decades is possible for a number of fault segments along transform and subduction plate boundaries. A key parameter in ascertaining if forecasting is feasible is the size of the coefficient of variation, CV, the standard deviation of inter-event times of large earthquakes that rupture all or most of a given fault segment divided by T, the average repeat time. I address only large events, ones that rupture all or most of the downdip width of the seismogenic zone where velocity-weakening behavior occurs. Historic and paleoseismic data indicate that the segment that ruptured in the great 1946 Nankaido, Japan, earthquake broke 9 times in the previous 1060 years yielding T=118 years and CV=0.16. The adjacent zone that broke in 1944 exhibits similar behavior as does the Copper River delta, the site of 8 paleoseismic events dated by Plafker and Rubin (1994) above the rupture zone of the 1964 Alaska earthquake. Lindh (preceding abstract) finds that many fault segments in California have similar small values of CV. Paleoseismic data for inter-event times at Pallet Creek and Wrightwood, however, indicate a large CV. Those sites at situated along the San Andreas fault near the end of the 1857 rupture zone where slip was much smaller than in the Carrizo plain, rupture in large events to the northwest and southeast overlap and deformation is multibranched as plate motion is transferred in part to the San Jacinto fault. Plate boundary slip is confined to narrow zones along the 1944 and 1946 segments of the Nankai trough but is more diffuse in the Tokai-Suruga Bay region where the Izu Peninsula is colliding with the rest of Honshu and repeat times appear to be longer (and CV perhaps is larger). Dates of uplifted terraces likely give repeat times of inter-plate thrust events that are too long and large estimates of CV since imbricate faults within the upper plate that generate terraces do not rupture in

  10. A new, ultra-low latency data transmission protocol for Earthquake Early Warning Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, P.; Hicks, S. P.; McGowan, M.

    2016-12-01

    One measure used to assess the performance of Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) is the delay time between earthquake origin and issued alert. EEWS latency is dependent on a number of sources (e.g. P-wave propagation, digitisation, transmission, receiver processing, triggering, event declaration). Many regional seismic networks use the SEEDlink protocol; however, packet size is fixed to 512-byte miniSEED records, resulting in transmission latencies of >0.5 s. Data packetisation is seen as one of the main sources of delays in EEWS (Brown et al., 2011). Optimising data-logger and telemetry configurations is a cost-effective strategy to improve EEWS alert times (Behr et al., 2015). Digitisers with smaller, selectable packets can result in faster alerts (Sokos et al., 2016). We propose a new seismic protocol for regional seismic networks benefiting low-latency applications such as EEWS. The protocol, based on Güralp's existing GDI-link format is an efficient and flexible method to exchange data between seismic stations and data centers for a range of network configurations. The main principle is to stream data sample-by-sample instead of fixed-length packets to minimise transmission latency. Self-adaptive packetisation with compression maximises available telemetry bandwidth. Highly flexible metadata fields within GDI-link are compatible with existing miniSEED definitions. Data is sent as integers or floats, supporting a wide range of data formats, including discrete parameters such as Pd & τC for on-site earthquake early warning. Other advantages include: streaming station state-of-health information, instrument control, support of backfilling and fail-over strategies during telemetry outages. Based on tests carried out on the Güralp Minimus data-logger, we show our new protocol can reduce transmission latency to as low as 1 ms. The low-latency protocol is currently being implemented with common processing packages. The results of these tests will help to

  11. Long-term effect of early-life stress from earthquake exposure on working memory in adulthood

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Na; Wang, Yumei; Zhao, Xiaochuan; Gao, Yuanyuan; Song, Mei; Yu, Lulu; Wang, Lan; Li, Ning; Chen, Qianqian; Li, Yunpeng; Cai,Jiajia; Wang, Xueyi

    2015-01-01

    Objective The present study aimed to investigate the long-term effect of 1976 Tangshan earthquake exposure in early life on performance of working memory in adulthood. Methods A total of 907 study subjects born and raised in Tangshan were enrolled in this study. They were divided into three groups according to the dates of birth: infant exposure (3–12 months, n=274), prenatal exposure (n=269), and no exposure (born at least 1 year after the earthquake, n=364). The prenatal group was further d...

  12. Holocene record of slip-predictable earthquakes on the Kenchreai Fault, Gulf of Corinth, Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koukouvelas, Ioannis K.; Zygouri, Vasiliki; Papadopoulos, Gerasimos A.; Verroios, Sotiris

    2017-01-01

    We present the Quaternary slip history of the Kenchreai Fault, Gulf of Corinth, based on geomorphological, palaeoseismological, geo-archaeological data and literally determined events. We also applied a series of geomorphic indices such as the hypsometric curve, asymmetry factor, the stream length-gradient index (SL), the valley floor width to valley height ratio (Vf), the drainage basin shape (Bs) and the mountain-front sinuosity (Smf), in drainage basins flowing perpendicular to the fault. These indices are representative for longer time period and are analyzed as follows. Values of SL are relatively high close to the fault trace. Smf values range from 1.01 to 1.85. Vf mean values range between 0.29 and 1.07. Bs values range from 1.16 to 4.78. Lateral fault growth was likely achieved by propagation primarily towards east while its western end appears to act as persistent barrier. The Holocene palaeoseismic history of the fault investigated by a palaeoseismological trench and 14C dating of ten samples suggest four linear morphogenic earthquakes in the last 10 ka. The Kenchreai Fault displays a Holocene slip rate in the order of 0.15 mm a-1 and a recurrence interval ranging between 1300 and 4700 years. Thus the fault is classified as a fault of moderate activity with moderate to well-developed geomorphic evidence of activity and an overall slip-predictable earthquake model.

  13. Appraising the Early-est earthquake monitoring system for tsunami alerting at the Italian candidate Tsunami Service Provider

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Bernardi

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present the procedure for earthquake location and characterization implemented in the Italian candidate Tsunami Service Provider at INGV in Roma. Following the ICG/NEAMTWS guidelines, the first tsunami warning messages are based only on seismic information, i.e. epicenter location, hypocenter depth and magnitude, which are automatically computed by the software Early-est. Early-est is a package for rapid location and seismic/tsunamigenic characterization of earthquakes. The Early-est software package operates on offline-event or continuous-realtime seismic waveform data to perform trace processing and picking, and, at a regular report interval, phase association, event detection, hypocenter location, and event characterization. In this paper we present the earthquake parameters computed by Early-est from the beginning of 2012 till the end of December 2014 at global scale for events with magnitude M ≥ 5.5, and the detection timeline. The earthquake parameters computed automatically by Early-est are compared with reference manually revised/verified catalogs. From our analysis the epicenter location and hypocenter depth parameters do not differ significantly from the values in the reference catalogs. The epicenter coordinates generally differ less than 20 ∓ 20 km from the reference epicenter coordinates; focal depths are less well constrained and differ generally less than 0 ∓ 30 km. Early-est also provides mb, Mwp and Mwpd magnitude estimations. mb magnitudes are preferred for events with Mwp ≲ 5.8, while Mwpd are valid for events with Mwp ≳ 7.2. The magnitude mb show wide differences with respect to the reference catalogs, we thus apply a linear correction mbcorr = mb · 0.52 + 2.46, such correction results into δmb ≈ 0.0 ∓ 0.2 uncertainty with respect the reference catalogs. As expected the Mwp show distance dependency. Mwp values at stations with epicentral distance Δ ≲ 30° are

  14. Predictive factors of depression symptoms among adolescents in the 18-month follow-up after Wenchuan earthquake in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chui, Cheryl H K; Ran, Mao-Sheng; Li, Rong-Hui; Fan, Mei; Zhang, Zhen; Li, Yuan-Hao; Ou, Guo Jing; Jiang, Zhe; Tong, Yu-Zhen; Fang, Ding-Zhi

    2017-02-01

    It is unclear about the change and risk factors of depression among adolescent survivors after earthquake. This study aimed to explore the change of depression, and identify the predictive factors of depression among adolescent survivors after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China. The depression among high school students at 6, 12 and 18 months after the Wenchuan earthquake were investigated. The Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) was used in this study to assess the severity of depression. Subjects included 548 student survivors in an affected high school. The rates of depression among the adolescent survivors at 6-, 12- and 18-month after the earthquake were 27.3%, 42.9% and 33.3%, respectively, for males, and 42.9%, 61.9% and 53.4%, respectively, for females. Depression symptoms, trauma-related self-injury, suicidal ideation and PTSD symptoms at the 6-month follow-up were significant predictive factors for depression at the 18-month time interval following the earthquake. This study highlights the need for considering disaster-related psychological sequela and risk factors of depression symptoms in the planning and implementation of mental health services. Long-term mental and psychological supports for victims of natural disasters are imperative.

  15. Tomography of seismo-radio wave source regions for predicting imminent earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Hiroshi; Takahashi, Kozo

    1989-10-01

    To detect a seismo-electromagnetic effect in a noisy land area or a deep-sea area, two methods are proposed. In the land area, a steel casing pipe inserted in a deep borehole has been used as the linear element of a monopole antenna. This method is shown to be very effective in rejecting atmospherics. In the deep-sea area, man-made noise and atmospherics can be attenuated by using insulated cables extended along the seabed as a dipole antenna or a loop antenna. Taking advantage of the seismo-radio wave propagating directly through the Earth's crust, a tomography is proposed to describe a three-dimensional intensity distribution of seismo-radio wave sources by receiving the wave at four or more points simultaneously, to predict precisely an earthquake of magnitude seven or more.

  16. Uncertainty, variability, and earthquake physics in ground‐motion prediction equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baltay, Annemarie S.; Hanks, Thomas C.; Abrahamson, Norm A.

    2017-01-01

    Residuals between ground‐motion data and ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) can be decomposed into terms representing earthquake source, path, and site effects. These terms can be cast in terms of repeatable (epistemic) residuals and the random (aleatory) components. Identifying the repeatable residuals leads to a GMPE with reduced uncertainty for a specific source, site, or path location, which in turn can yield a lower hazard level at small probabilities of exceedance. We illustrate a schematic framework for this residual partitioning with a dataset from the ANZA network, which straddles the central San Jacinto fault in southern California. The dataset consists of more than 3200 1.15≤M≤3 earthquakes and their peak ground accelerations (PGAs), recorded at close distances (R≤20  km). We construct a small‐magnitude GMPE for these PGA data, incorporating VS30 site conditions and geometrical spreading. Identification and removal of the repeatable source, path, and site terms yield an overall reduction in the standard deviation from 0.97 (in ln units) to 0.44, for a nonergodic assumption, that is, for a single‐source location, single site, and single path. We give examples of relationships between independent seismological observables and the repeatable terms. We find a correlation between location‐based source terms and stress drops in the San Jacinto fault zone region; an explanation of the site term as a function of kappa, the near‐site attenuation parameter; and a suggestion that the path component can be related directly to elastic structure. These correlations allow the repeatable source location, site, and path terms to be determined a priori using independent geophysical relationships. Those terms could be incorporated into location‐specific GMPEs for more accurate and precise ground‐motion prediction.

  17. Long-term effect of early-life stress from earthquake exposure on working memory in adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Na; Wang, Yumei; Zhao, Xiaochuan; Gao, Yuanyuan; Song, Mei; Yu, Lulu; Wang, Lan; Li, Ning; Chen, Qianqian; Li, Yunpeng; Cai, Jiajia; Wang, Xueyi

    2015-01-01

    The present study aimed to investigate the long-term effect of 1976 Tangshan earthquake exposure in early life on performance of working memory in adulthood. A total of 907 study subjects born and raised in Tangshan were enrolled in this study. They were divided into three groups according to the dates of birth: infant exposure (3-12 months, n=274), prenatal exposure (n=269), and no exposure (born at least 1 year after the earthquake, n=364). The prenatal group was further divided into first, second, and third trimester subgroups based on the timing of exposure during pregnancy. Hopkins Verbal Learning Test-Revised and Brief Visuospatial Memory Test-Revised (BVMT-R) were used to measure the performance of working memory. Unconditional logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the influential factors for impaired working memory. The Hopkins Verbal Learning Test-Revised scores did not show significant difference across the three groups. Compared with no exposure group, the BVMT-R scores were slightly lower in the prenatal exposure group and markedly decreased in the infant exposure group. When the BVMT-R scores were analyzed in three subgroups, the results showed that the subjects whose mothers were exposed to earthquake in the second and third trimesters of pregnancy had significantly lower BVMT-R scores compared with those in the first trimester. Education level and early-life earthquake exposure were identified as independent risk factors for reduced performance of visuospatial memory indicated by lower BVMT-R scores. Infant exposure to earthquake-related stress impairs visuospatial memory in adulthood. Fetuses in the middle and late stages of development are more vulnerable to stress-induced damage that consequently results in impaired visuospatial memory. Education and early-life trauma can also influence the performance of working memory in adulthood.

  18. Discussion on Some Issues of Earthquake Early Warning Engineering%地震预警工程的若干问题探讨

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张晁军; 陈会忠; 蔡晋安; 侯燕燕; 许洪华; 李卫东

    2014-01-01

    地震预警是国内外地学研究的热点,是复杂的社会工程。地震预警工程是跨学科的工程,特别是涉及自然科学和社会科学的结合。本文就地震预警的一些基本概念和由地震预警原理带来的工程上的若干问题,进行了比较详细的讨论。介绍了地震预警的概念和种类、地震预警的模式、地震预警的能力,强调了地震预警盲区、受益区、无效区的不同能力,提出了地震预警第一报的重要性。指出了地震预警技术不仅带来减灾效果,还催生了密集地震观测网,突破了传统地震观测网的观测方式和处理方法,将为传统的地震观测学和实时地震学带来创新和变革。论述了当前地震预警技术的局限和存在的问题。结合国内外地震预警的现状,提出了地震预警工程需要注意的问题及需要研究的方向,指出地震预警是复杂的社会工程,首次提出了地震预警的社会容忍度及社会对地震预警容忍度的差异,同时探讨了地震预警效益和风险。%Earthquake early warning (EEW) is a hot topic in domestic and foreign research. It is a complex social engineering. Earthquake early warning engineering is an interdisciplinary engineering, particularly in the combination between natural science and social science. In this paper, some problems about some basic concepts of earthquake early warning and some problems brought by the earthquake early warning theory, are discussed in detail. This paper introduces the concept and types of earthquake early warning, earthquake early warning model, ability of earthquake early warning and it also emphasizes the different ability of earthquake early warning, benefit area, blind area of invalid area and points out the importance of the first report of earthquake early warning. This paper points out that the earthquake early warning technology not only brings mitigation for disaster, but also stimulates a

  19. Real-time performance of probabilistic, first-motion earthquake mechanisms to improve tsunami early-warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lomax, Anthony; Michelni, Alberto; Bernardi, Fabrizio; Scognamiglio, Laura

    2017-04-01

    The first tsunami warning messages are typically based on simple earthquake parameters: epicenter location, hypocenter depth, and magnitude. The addition of early information on the faulting mechanism can enable more reliable estimates of seafloor uplift, tsunami excitation, tsunami potential and impact, and earlier, real-time tsunami scenario forecasting. Full-waveform, centroid moment tensor solutions (CMT) are typically available in 3-15min for local/near-regional earthquakes and in 10-30min for regional/teleseismic distances. In contrast, classic, P first-motion (FM) focal-mechanisms can be available within 3min for local/near-regional events and in 5-10 min for regional/teleseismic distances. We present fmamp, a robust, probabilistic, adaptive grid-search, FM mechanism determination procedure which generates a comprehensive set of "acceptable" FM mechanisms and related uncertainties. This FM solution, combined with fast magnitude estimates such as Mwp, forms a CMT proxy for rapid source characterization and analysis before a definitive, waveform CMT is available. Currently, fmamp runs in real-time in Early-est*, the module for rapid earthquake detection, location and analysis at the INGV tsunami alert center (CAT, "Centro di Allerta Tsunami"), part of the Italian, candidate Tsunami Watch Provider. We show the real-time performance of fmamp and compare its speed and accuracy to CMT results. For large earthquakes in areas of sparse seismic station coverage, fmamp mechanisms are typically available in 5-10min, while CMT results take 10-30min. The fmamp solutions usually agree with CMT results for larger events, but sometimes differ, due to insufficient or noisy FM readings, or real difference between the FM mechanism, representing the faulting at the hypocenter, and the CMT mechanism representing some average, centroid faulting. * http://early-est.alomax.net, http://early-est.rm.ingv.it, http://alomax.free.fr/posters/early-est

  20. Vp/Vs Anisotropy and Implications for Crustal Composition Identification and Earthquake Prediction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Qian; JI Shaocheng; XU Zhiqin

    2009-01-01

    The ratio of P- to S-wave velocities (Vp/Vs) is regarded as one of the most diagnostic properties of natural rocks. It has been used as a discriminant of composition for the continental crust and provides valuable constraints on its formation and evolution processes. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal changes in Vp/Vs before and after earthquakes are probably the most promising avenue to understanding the source mechanics and possibly predicting earthquakes. Here we calibrate the variations in Vp/Vs in dry, anisotropic crustal rocks and provide a set of basic information for the interpretation of future seismic data from the Wenchuan earthquake Fault zone Scientific Drilling (WFSD) project and other surveys. Vp/Vs is a constant (φ0) for an isotropic rock. However, most of crustal rocks are anisotropic due to lattice-preferred orientations of anisotropic minerals (e.g., mica, amphibole, plagioclase and pyroxene) and cracks as well as thin compositional layering. The Vp/Vs ratio of an anisotropic rock measured along a selected pair of propagation-vibration directions is an apparent value (φij) that is significantly different from the value for its isotropic counterpart (φ0). The usefulness of apparent Vp/Vs ratios as a diagnostic of crustal composition depends largely on rock seismic anisotropy. A 5% of P- and S-wave velocity anisotropy is sufficient to make it impossible to determine the crustal composition using the conventional criteria (Vp/Vsl.944 fluid-tidied porous/fractured or partially molten rocks) if the information about the wave propagation-polarization directions with respect to the tectonic framework is unknown. However, the variations in Vp/Vs measured from borehole seismic experiments can be readily interpreted according to the orientations of the ray path and the polarization of the shear waves with respect to the present-day principal stress directions (I.e., the orientation of cracks) and the frozen fabric (I.e., foliation and lineation).

  1. Validation of a ground motion synthesis and prediction methodology for the 1988, M=6.0, Saguenay Earthquake

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hutchings, L.; Jarpe, S.; Kasameyer, P.; Foxall, W.

    1998-01-01

    We model the 1988, M=6.0, Saguenay earthquake. We utilize an approach that has been developed to predict strong ground motion. this approach involves developing a set of rupture scenarios based upon bounds on rupture parameters. rupture parameters include rupture geometry, hypocenter, rupture roughness, rupture velocity, healing velocity (rise times), slip distribution, asperity size and location, and slip vector. Scenario here refers to specific values of these parameters for an hypothesized earthquake. Synthetic strong ground motion are then generated for each rupture scenario. A sufficient number of scenarios are run to span the variability in strong ground motion due to the source uncertainties. By having a suite of rupture scenarios of hazardous earthquakes for a fixed magnitude and identifying the hazard to the site from the one standard deviation value of engineering parameters we have introduced a probabilistic component to the deterministic hazard calculation, For this study we developed bounds on rupture scenarios from previous research on this earthquake. The time history closest to the observed ground motion was selected as a model for the Saguenay earthquake.

  2. Solar Index prediction methodology for early delivery

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lantz, L.J.

    1980-01-01

    Since the beginning of the Solar Index project in 1978, it has been one of the primary objectives to deliver the Indices in mid-afternoon local standard time. This was desirable because it would make it possible to have the numbers broadcast in the early evening news. A short description of the current project is presented and then a summary of the work that led to the early delivery of the Solar Index is given.

  3. Predictability crisis in early universe cosmology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smeenk, Chris

    2014-05-01

    Inflationary cosmology has been widely accepted due to its successful predictions: for a "generic" initial state, inflation produces a homogeneous, flat, bubble with an appropriate spectrum of density perturbations. However, the discovery that inflation is "generically eternal," leading to a vast multiverse of inflationary bubbles with different low-energy physics, threatens to undermine this account. There is a "predictability crisis" in eternal inflation, because extracting predictions apparently requires a well-defined measure over the multiverse. This has led to discussions of anthropic predictions based on a measure over the multiverse, and an assumption that we are typical observers. I will give a pessimistic assessment of attempts to make predictions in this sense, emphasizing in particular problems that arise even if a unique measure can be found.

  4. A Feasibility Study for Earthquake Early Warning in a School in Southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emolo, A.; Martino, C.; Picozzi, M.; Zollo, A.; Elia, L.; Festa, G.; Colombelli, S.; Caruso, A.; Brondi, P.; Miranda, N.

    2015-12-01

    We present the results of a feasibility study on the application of earthquake early-warning procedures in the high school ITIS E. Majorana, Somma Vesuviana, Naples, located about 80 km far from the seismogenic Irpinia region. The study was performed in the framework of the European REAKT project. The school was equipped with an EEWS composed of: a small seismic network of accelerometers, the PRESToPlus software platform, and an actuator, named Sentinel. The Sentinel is made up of low-cost hardware (i.e., Arduino®) programmed to accomplish three main tasks: 1) listen and interpret messages delivered by the EEW system PRESToPlus on the ground motion severity expected at the target site; 2) provides different warnings as alert levels by the control of different hardware (i.e., alarm bells, emergency lights, and so on); 3) declare the end of the most threatening condition, which will assist the emergency coordinator starting the evacuation plan defined by the current legislation. The Sentinel was developed within REAKT in close collaboration with the students and the teachers of the school. The EEW system and the Sentinel were successfully tested during some blind drills performed during normal school activities.

  5. The new Algerian Digital Seismic Network (ADSN): towards an earthquake early-warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yelles-Chaouche, A.; Allili, T.; Alili, A.; Messemen, W.; Beldjoudi, H.; Semmane, F.; Kherroubi, A.; Djellit, H.; Larbes, Y.; Haned, S.; Deramchi, A.; Amrani, A.; Chouiref, A.; Chaoui, F.; Khellaf, K.; Nait Sidi Said, C.

    2013-10-01

    Seismic monitoring in Algeria has seen great changes since the Boumerdes earthquake of 21 May 2003. Indeed, the installation of a new digital seismic network has resulted in a significant upgrade of the previous analog telemetry network. During the last four years, the number of stations in operation has increased substantially from 25 to 69, and 20 of these are broadband, 2 are very broadband, 47 are short period. 21 are equipped with accelerometers. They are all managed by Antelope software from Kinemetrics (US Cie), and they are all connected in real time and use various modes of transmission (e.g., satellite, internet, mobile phone). The spatial repartition of the stations now cover most of northern Algeria. In addition, 70 GPS stations have recently been added to this seismological network, most of them collocated with the seismological stations. Since the installation of the network, the records of local or distant events have improved significantly. The automatic processing of the data in a few minutes allows alert messages to be distributed to Civil Defense and other national authorities to react promptly to any emergency. The current strategy is to improve the data quality, to increase the density of the network by adding about 50 new stations, to reduce the processing time, and to reduce the time needed to send out an alert message. The result should be greatly improved network performance, which will lead to an effective early-warning system.

  6. Long-term effect of early-life stress from earthquake exposure on working memory in adulthood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li N

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Na Li,1-3* Yumei Wang,1-3* Xiaochuan Zhao,1-3 Yuanyuan Gao,1-3 Mei Song,1-3 Lulu Yu,1-3 Lan Wang,1-3 Ning Li,1-3 Qianqian Chen,1-3 Yunpeng Li,1-3 Jiajia Cai,1-3 Xueyi Wang1-31Department of Psychiatry, The First Hospital of Hebei Medical University, 2Mental Health Institute of Hebei Medical University, 3Brain Ageing and Cognitive Neuroscience Laboratory, Hebei, People’s Republic of China *These authors contributed equally to this work Objective: The present study aimed to investigate the long-term effect of 1976 Tangshan earthquake exposure in early life on performance of working memory in adulthood.Methods: A total of 907 study subjects born and raised in Tangshan were enrolled in this study. They were divided into three groups according to the dates of birth: infant exposure (3–12 months, n=274, prenatal exposure (n=269, and no exposure (born at least 1 year after the earthquake, n=364. The prenatal group was further divided into first, second, and third trimester subgroups based on the timing of exposure during pregnancy. Hopkins Verbal Learning Test-Revised and Brief Visuospatial Memory Test-Revised (BVMT-R were used to measure the performance of working memory. Unconditional logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the influential factors for impaired working memory.Results: The Hopkins Verbal Learning Test-Revised scores did not show significant difference across the three groups. Compared with no exposure group, the BVMT-R scores were slightly lower in the prenatal exposure group and markedly decreased in the infant exposure group. When the BVMT-R scores were analyzed in three subgroups, the results showed that the subjects whose mothers were exposed to earthquake in the second and third trimesters of pregnancy had significantly lower BVMT-R scores compared with those in the first trimester. Education level and early-life earthquake exposure were identified as independent risk factors for reduced performance of

  7. Caltech/USGS Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN): Infrastructure upgrade to support Earthquake Early Warning (EEW)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhadha, R. J.; Hauksson, E.; Boese, M.; Felizardo, C.; Thomas, V. I.; Yu, E.; Given, D. D.; Heaton, T. H.; Hudnut, K. W.

    2013-12-01

    The SCSN is the modern digital ground motion seismic network in Southern California and performs the following tasks: 1) Operates remote seismic stations and the central data processing systems in Pasadena; 2) Generates and reports real-time products including location, magnitude, ShakeMap, aftershock probabilities and others; 3) Responds to FEMA, CalOES, media, and public inquiries about earthquakes; 4) Manages the production, archival, and distribution of waveforms, phase picks, and other data at the SCEDC; 5) Contributes to development and implementation of the demonstration EEW system called CISN ShakeAlert. Initially, the ShakeAlert project was funded through the US Geological Survey (USGS) and in early 2012, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation provided three years of new funding for EEW research and development for the US west coast. Recently, we have also received some Urban Areas Security Initiative (UASI) funding to enhance the EEW capabilities for the local UASI region by making our system overall faster, more reliable and redundant than the existing system. The additional and upgraded stations will be capable of decreasing latency and ensuring data delivery by using more reliable and redundant telemetry pathways. Overall, this will enhance the reliability of the earthquake early warnings by providing denser station coverage and more resilient data centers than before. * Seismic Datalogger upgrade: replaces existing dataloggers with modern equipment capable of sending one-second uncompressed packets and utilizing redundant Ethernet telemetry. * GPS upgrade: replaces the existing GPS receivers and antennas, especially at "zipper array" sites near the major faults, with receivers that perform on-board precise point positioning to calculate position and velocity in real time and stream continuous data for use in EEW calculations. * New co-located seismic/GPS stations: increases station density and reduces early warning delays that are incurred by travel

  8. Statistical tests of simple earthquake cycle models

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeVries, Phoebe M. R.; Evans, Eileen L.

    2016-12-01

    A central goal of observing and modeling the earthquake cycle is to forecast when a particular fault may generate an earthquake: a fault late in its earthquake cycle may be more likely to generate an earthquake than a fault early in its earthquake cycle. Models that can explain geodetic observations throughout the entire earthquake cycle may be required to gain a more complete understanding of relevant physics and phenomenology. Previous efforts to develop unified earthquake models for strike-slip faults have largely focused on explaining both preseismic and postseismic geodetic observations available across a few faults in California, Turkey, and Tibet. An alternative approach leverages the global distribution of geodetic and geologic slip rate estimates on strike-slip faults worldwide. Here we use the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for similarity of distributions to infer, in a statistically rigorous manner, viscoelastic earthquake cycle models that are inconsistent with 15 sets of observations across major strike-slip faults. We reject a large subset of two-layer models incorporating Burgers rheologies at a significance level of α = 0.05 (those with long-term Maxwell viscosities ηM 4.6 × 1020 Pa s) but cannot reject models on the basis of transient Kelvin viscosity ηK. Finally, we examine the implications of these results for the predicted earthquake cycle timing of the 15 faults considered and compare these predictions to the geologic and historical record.

  9. Early Literacy and Early Numeracy: The Value of Including Early Literacy Skills in the Prediction of Numeracy Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purpura, David J.; Hume, Laura E.; Sims, Darcey M.; Lonigan, Cristopher J.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine whether early literacy skills uniquely predict early numeracy skills development. During the first year of the study, 69 3- to 5-year-old preschoolers were assessed on the Preschool Early Numeracy Skills (PENS) test and the Test of Preschool Early Literacy Skills (TOPEL). Participants were assessed again a…

  10. Early executive function predicts reasoning development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richland, Lindsey E; Burchinal, Margaret R

    2013-01-01

    Analogical reasoning is a core cognitive skill that distinguishes humans from all other species and contributes to general fluid intelligence, creativity, and adaptive learning capacities. Yet its origins are not well understood. In the study reported here, we analyzed large-scale longitudinal data from the Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development to test predictors of growth in analogical-reasoning skill from third grade to adolescence. Our results suggest an integrative resolution to the theoretical debate regarding contributory factors arising from smaller-scale, cross-sectional experiments on analogy development. Children with greater executive-function skills (both composite and inhibitory control) and vocabulary knowledge in early elementary school displayed higher scores on a verbal analogies task at age 15 years, even after adjusting for key covariates. We posit that knowledge is a prerequisite to analogy performance, but strong executive-functioning resources during early childhood are related to long-term gains in fundamental reasoning skills.

  11. Appraising the Early-est earthquake monitoring system for tsunami alerting at the Italian Candidate Tsunami Service Provider

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernardi, F.; Lomax, A.; Michelini, A.; Lauciani, V.; Piatanesi, A.; Lorito, S.

    2015-09-01

    In this paper we present and discuss the performance of the procedure for earthquake location and characterization implemented in the Italian Candidate Tsunami Service Provider at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) in Rome. Following the ICG/NEAMTWS guidelines, the first tsunami warning messages are based only on seismic information, i.e., epicenter location, hypocenter depth, and magnitude, which are automatically computed by the software Early-est. Early-est is a package for rapid location and seismic/tsunamigenic characterization of earthquakes. The Early-est software package operates using offline-event or continuous-real-time seismic waveform data to perform trace processing and picking, and, at a regular report interval, phase association, event detection, hypocenter location, and event characterization. Early-est also provides mb, Mwp, and Mwpd magnitude estimations. mb magnitudes are preferred for events with Mwp ≲ 5.8, while Mwpd estimations are valid for events with Mwp ≳ 7.2. In this paper we present the earthquake parameters computed by Early-est between the beginning of March 2012 and the end of December 2014 on a global scale for events with magnitude M ≥ 5.5, and we also present the detection timeline. We compare the earthquake parameters automatically computed by Early-est with the same parameters listed in reference catalogs. Such reference catalogs are manually revised/verified by scientists. The goal of this work is to test the accuracy and reliability of the fully automatic locations provided by Early-est. In our analysis, the epicenter location, hypocenter depth and magnitude parameters do not differ significantly from the values in the reference catalogs. Both mb and Mwp magnitudes show differences to the reference catalogs. We thus derived correction functions in order to minimize the differences and correct biases between our values and the ones from the reference catalogs. Correction of the Mwp

  12. Procedure of evaluating parameters of inland earthquakes caused by long strike-slip faults for ground motion prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ju, Dianshu; Dan, Kazuo; Fujiwara, Hiroyuki; Morikawa, Nobuyuki

    2016-04-01

    We proposed a procedure of evaluating fault parameters of asperity models for predicting strong ground motions from inland earthquakes caused by long strike-slip faults. In order to obtain averaged dynamic stress drops, we adopted the formula obtained by dynamic fault rupturing simulations for surface faults of the length from 15 to 100 km, because the formula of the averaged static stress drops for circular cracks, commonly adopted in existing procedures, cannot be applied to surface faults or long faults. The averaged dynamic stress drops were estimated to be 3.4 MPa over the entire fault and 12.2 MPa on the asperities, from the data of 10 earthquakes in Japan and 13 earthquakes in other countries. The procedure has a significant feature that the average slip on the seismic faults longer than about 80 km is constant, about 300 cm. In order to validate our proposed procedure, we made a model for a 141 km long strike-slip fault by our proposed procedure for strike-slip faults, predicted ground motions, and showed that the resultant motions agreed well with the records of the 1999 Kocaeli, Turkey, earthquake (Mw 7.6) and with the peak ground accelerations and peak ground velocities by the GMPE of Si and Midorikawa (1999).

  13. Predicted Liquefaction in the Greater Oakland and Northern Santa Clara Valley Areas for a Repeat of the 1868 Hayward Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holzer, T. L.; Noce, T. E.; Bennett, M. J.

    2008-12-01

    Probabilities of surface manifestations of liquefaction due to a repeat of the 1868 (M6.7-7.0) earthquake on the southern segment of the Hayward Fault were calculated for two areas along the margin of San Francisco Bay, California: greater Oakland and the northern Santa Clara Valley. Liquefaction is predicted to be more common in the greater Oakland area than in the northern Santa Clara Valley owing to the presence of 57 km2 of susceptible sandy artificial fill. Most of the fills were placed into San Francisco Bay during the first half of the 20th century to build military bases, port facilities, and shoreline communities like Alameda and Bay Farm Island. Probabilities of liquefaction in the area underlain by this sandy artificial fill range from 0.2 to ~0.5 for a M7.0 earthquake, and decrease to 0.1 to ~0.4 for a M6.7 earthquake. In the greater Oakland area, liquefaction probabilities generally are less than 0.05 for Holocene alluvial fan deposits, which underlie most of the remaining flat-lying urban area. In the northern Santa Clara Valley for a M7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault and an assumed water-table depth of 1.5 m (the historically shallowest water level), liquefaction probabilities range from 0.1 to 0.2 along Coyote and Guadalupe Creeks, but are less than 0.05 elsewhere. For a M6.7 earthquake, probabilities are greater than 0.1 along Coyote Creek but decrease along Guadalupe Creek to less than 0.1. Areas with high probabilities in the Santa Clara Valley are underlain by latest Holocene alluvial fan levee deposits where liquefaction and lateral spreading occurred during large earthquakes in 1868 and 1906. The liquefaction scenario maps were created with ArcGIS ModelBuilder. Peak ground accelerations first were computed with the new Boore and Atkinson NGA attenuation relation (2008, Earthquake Spectra, 24:1, p. 99-138), using VS30 to account for local site response. Spatial liquefaction probabilities were then estimated using the predicted ground motions

  14. The bayesian probabilistic prediction of the next earthquake in the ometepec segment of the mexican subduction zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferraes, Sergio G.

    1992-06-01

    A predictive equation to estimate the next interoccurrence time (τ) for the next earthquake ( M≥6) in the Ometepec segment is presented, based on Bayes' theorem and the Gaussian process. Bayes' theorem is used to relate the Gaussian process to both a log-normal distribution of recurrence times (τ) and a log-normal distribution of magnitudes ( M) ( Nishenko and Buland, 1987; Lomnitz, 1964). We constructed two new random variables X=In M and Y=In τ with normal marginal densities, and based on the Gaussian process model we assume that their joint density is normal. Using this information, we determine the Bayesian conditional probability. Finally, a predictive equation is derived, based on the criterion of maximization of the Bayesian conditional probability. The model forecasts the next interoccurrence time, conditional on the magnitude of the last event. Realistic estimates of future damaging earthquakes are based on relocated historical earthquakes. However, at the present time there is a controversy between Nishenko-Singh and Gonzalez-Ruiz-Mc-Nally concerning the rupturing process of the 1907 earthquake. We use our Bayesian analysis to examine and discuss this very important controversy. To clarify to the full significance of the analysis, we put forward the results using two catalogues: (1) The Ometepec catalogue without the 1907 earthquake (González-Ruíz-McNally), and (2) the Ometepec catalogue including the 1907 earthquake (Nishenko-Singh). The comparison of the prediction error reveals that in the Nishenko-Singh catalogue, the errors are considerably smaller than the average error for the González-Ruíz-McNally catalogue of relocated events. Finally, using the Nishenko-Singh catalogue which locates the 1907 event inside the Ometepec segment, we conclude that the next expected damaging earthquake ( M≥6.0) will occur approximately within the next time interval τ=11.82 years from the last event (which occurred on July 2, 1984), or equivalently will

  15. The East Aegean Sea strong earthquake sequence of October–November 2005: lessons learned for earthquake prediction from foreshocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. A. Papadopoulos

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The seismic sequence of October–November 2005 in the Samos area, East Aegean Sea, was studied with the aim to show how it is possible to establish criteria for (a the rapid recognition of both the ongoing foreshock activity and the mainshock, and (b the rapid discrimination between the foreshock and aftershock phases of activity. It has been shown that before the mainshock of 20 October 2005, foreshock activity is not recognizable in the standard earthquake catalogue. However, a detailed examination of the records in the SMG station, which is the closest to the activated area, revealed that hundreds of small shocks not listed in the standard catalogue were recorded in the time interval from 12 October 2005 up to 21 November 2005. The production of reliable relations between seismic signal duration and duration magnitude for earthquakes included in the standard catalogue, made it possible to use signal durations in SMG records and to determine duration magnitudes for 2054 small shocks not included in the standard catalogue. In this way a new catalogue with magnitude determination for 3027 events was obtained while the standard catalogue contains 1025 events. At least 55 of them occurred from 12 October 2005 up to the occurrence of the two strong foreshocks of 17 October 2005. This implies that foreshock activity developed a few days before the strong shocks of 17 October 2005 but it escaped recognition by the routine procedure of seismic analysis. The onset of the foreshock phase of activity is recognizable by the significant increase of the mean seismicity rate which increased exponentially with time. According to the least-squares approach the b-value of the magnitude-frequency relation dropped significantly during the foreshock activity with respect to the b-value prevailing in the declustered background seismicity. However, the maximum likelihood approach does not indicate such a drop of b. The b-value found for the aftershocks that

  16. Adapting ElarmS Earthquake Early Warnings for Cascadia: Development and Testing of ShakeAlerts in the Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartog, J. R.; Kress, V. C.; Thomas, T.; Malone, S. D.; Henson, I. H.; Neuhauser, D. S.

    2013-12-01

    As a first step in establishing an earthquake early warning system in Cascadia, we have installed the ElarmS component of the ShakeAlert system at the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network. In Cascadia our initial focus is primarily on the development of a seismo-geodetic-based real-time finite fault rupture algorithm to detect and characterize a large plate-boundary rupture in progress (see Crowell et. al., this session). In this regard the goal of the purely seismic-data-based ElarmS implementation is to 'trigger' the finite fault rupture algorithm. At the same time, however, the Cascadian ElarmS will also produce warnings for smaller onshore crustal earthquakes. While warnings from these smaller and closer earthquakes will provide shorter warning times for communities, and for less dramatic earthquakes, we intend to use them for educational purposes, and to coordinate with our regional and collaborating partners. They will also help to guide us to shorten data latencies and learn where additional instrumentation is most needed to increase performance. The accuracy of ElarmS in Cascadia is another major concern, because the current ElarmS model presumes an initial focal depth for earthquakes of 8 km based on California experience, while in Cascadia earthquakes of major concern may be as deep as 50 km, and/or occur beyond the western fringe of the seismic network. To this purpose our testing protocol is aimed at determining what changes are required to ensure top performance of an ElarmS-based warning system in Cascadia. Because of Cascadia's relatively low seismicity rate, and the paucity of data from plate boundary earthquakes there of any size, we have prioritized the development of a test system. The test system permits us to: 1) replay segments of actual seismic waveform data recorded from the PNSN and contributing seismic network stations to represent both earthquakes and noise conditions, and 2) broadcast synthetic data into the system to simulate signals we

  17. Predicting Early Maladaptive Schemas Using Baumrind's Parenting Styles

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Esmali Kooraneh, Ahmad; Amirsardari, Leili

    2015-01-01

    .... The family provides the first and the most important social context for human development. The present study aimed to predict early maladaptive schemas using Baumrind's parenting styles (root development...

  18. Earthquakes: hydrogeochemical precursors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingebritsen, Steven E.; Manga, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Earthquake prediction is a long-sought goal. Changes in groundwater chemistry before earthquakes in Iceland highlight a potential hydrogeochemical precursor, but such signals must be evaluated in the context of long-term, multiparametric data sets.

  19. The analysis results of EEWS(Earthquake Early Warning System) about Iksan(Ml4.3) and Ulsan(Ml5.0) earthquakes in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, J. H.; Chi, H. C.; Lim, I. S.; Seong, Y. J.; Pak, J.

    2016-12-01

    EEW(Earthquake Early Warning) service to the public has been officially operated by KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) from 2015 in Korea. For the KMA's official EEW service, KIGAM has adopted ElarmS from UC Berkeley BSL and modified local magnitude relation, 1-D travel time curves and association procedures with real time waveforms from about 160 seismic stations of KMA and KIGAM. We have checked the performance of EEWS(Earthquake Early Warning System) reviewing two moderate size earthquakes: one is Iksan Eq.(Ml4.3) inside of networks and the other is Ulsan Eq.(Ml5.0) happened at the southern east sea of Korea outside of networks. The first trigger time at NPR station of the Iksan Eq. took 2.3 sec and BUY and JEO2 stations were associated to produce the first event version in 10.07 sec from the origin time respectively. Because the epicentral distance of JEO2 station is about 30 km and the estimated travel time is 6.2 sec, the delay time including transmission and processing is estimated as 3.87 sec with assumption that P wave velocity is 5 km/sec and the focal depth is 8 km. The first magnitude was M4.9 which was a little bigger than Ml4.3 by KIGAM. After adding 3 more triggers of stations (CHO, KMSA, PORA), the estimated magnitude became to M4.6 and the final was settled down to M4.3 with 10 stations. In the case of Ulsan the first trigger time took 11.04 sec and the first alert time with 3 stations in 14.8 sec from the origin time (OT) respectively. The first magnitude was M5.2, however, the difference between the first EEW epicenter and the manual final result was about 63 km due to the poor azimuth coverage outside of seismic network. After 16.2 sec from OT the fourth station YSB was used to update the location near to the manual results within 6 km with magnitude 5.0 and location and magnitude were stable with more stations. Ulsan Eq. was the first case announced to the public by EEWS and the process and result were successful, however, we have to

  20. Bayesian forecasting of the recurrent earthquakes and its predictive performance for a small sample size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nomura, S.; Ogata, Y.

    2010-12-01

    This study is concerned with the probability forecast by the Brownian Passage Time (BPT) model especially in case where only a few records of recurrent earthquakes from an active fault are available. We adopt the Bayesian predictive distribution that takes the relevant prior information and all possibilities for model parameters into account. We utilize the size of single-event displacements U and the slip rate V across the segment to calculate the mean recurrence time T=U/V that the past recurrence intervals are distributed around as Figure 1. We then make use of the best fitted prior distribution for the BPT variation coefficient (the shape parameter, α) selected by the Akaike Bayesian information criterion (ABIC), while the ERC uses the same common estimate α=0.24. Applying this prior distribution, we can see that α takes various values among the faults but has some locational tendencies from Figure 2. For example, α values tend to be higher in the center of Honshu island where the faults are densely populated. We compare the goodness of fit and probability forecasts between the conventional models and our proposed model by historical or simulated datasets. The Bayesian predictor shows very stable and superior performance for small samples or variant recurrence times. Figure 1: The relation between mean recurrence time from slip data and past recurrence intervals with error bars. Figure 2: The map of active faults in land and subduction-zones in Japan, whose colors show the Bayes estimates of variation coefficient α.

  1. Earthquake Science: a New Start

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chen Yun-tai

    2009-01-01

    @@ Understanding the mechanisms which cause earthquakes and thus earthquake prediction, is inher-ently difficult in comparison to other physical phenom-ena. This is due to the inaccessibility of the Earth's inte-rior, the infrequency of large earthquakes, and the com-plexities of the physical processes involved. Conse-quently, in its broadest sense, earthquake science--the science of studying earthquake phenomena, is a com-prehensive and inter-disciplinary field. The disciplines involved in earthquake science include: traditional seismology, earthquake geodesy, earthquake geology, rock mechanics, complex system theory, and informa-tion and communication technologies related to earth-quake studies.

  2. Early SME Market Prediction using USDNN

    OpenAIRE

    Walcott, Terry H.; Palmer-Brown, Dominic; Lee, Sin Wee

    2008-01-01

    We present the application of an\\ud unsupervised snap drift neural network (USDNN) in\\ud the context of market prediction for small and\\ud medium enterprises (SMEs). The method is applied to\\ud small firm data collected from twenty seven\\ud participating SMEs across greater London. The\\ud motivation of this research is aimed at the\\ud significance of artificial neural networks in\\ud addressing the perceived failure associated to smaller\\ud firms irrespective of area of operation and business\\...

  3. Early Numeracy Indicators: Examining Predictive Utility Across Years and States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conoyer, Sarah J.; Foegen, Anne; Lembke, Erica S.

    2016-01-01

    Two studies using similar methods in two states investigated the long-term predictive utility of two single-skill early numeracy Curriculum Based Measures (CBMs) and the degree to which they can adequately predict high-stakes test scores. Data were drawn from kindergarten and first-grade students. State standardized assessment data from the…

  4. Parallelization of the Coupled Earthquake Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Block, Gary; Li, P. Peggy; Song, Yuhe T.

    2007-01-01

    This Web-based tsunami simulation system allows users to remotely run a model on JPL s supercomputers for a given undersea earthquake. At the time of this reporting, predicting tsunamis on the Internet has never happened before. This new code directly couples the earthquake model and the ocean model on parallel computers and improves simulation speed. Seismometers can only detect information from earthquakes; they cannot detect whether or not a tsunami may occur as a result of the earthquake. When earthquake-tsunami models are coupled with the improved computational speed of modern, high-performance computers and constrained by remotely sensed data, they are able to provide early warnings for those coastal regions at risk. The software is capable of testing NASA s satellite observations of tsunamis. It has been successfully tested for several historical tsunamis, has passed all alpha and beta testing, and is well documented for users.

  5. Lessons Learned from Eight Years' Experience of Actual Operation, and Future Prospects of JMA Earthquake Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoshiba, M.; Nishimae, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Since 2007, experiences of actual operation of EEW have been gained by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). During this period, we have learned lessons from many M6- and M7-class earthquakes, and the Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake. During the Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake, JMA system functioned well: it issued a warning message more than 15 s before strong ground shaking in the Tohoku district (relatively near distance from the epicenter). However, it was not perfect: in addition to the problem of large extent of fault rupture, some false warning messages were issued due to the confusion of the system because of simultaneous multiple aftershocks which occurred at the wide rupture area. To address the problems, JMA will introduce two new methods into the operational system this year to start their tests, aiming at practical operation within a couple of years. One is Integrated Particle Filter (IPF) method, which is an integrated algorithm of multiple hypocenter determination techniques with Bayesian estimation, in which amplitude information is also used for hypocenter determination. The other is Propagation of Local Undamped Motion (PLUM) method, in which warning message is issued when strong ground shaking is detected at nearby stations around the target site (e.g., within 30 km). Here, hypocenter and magnitude are not required in PLUM. Aiming at application for several years later, we are investigating a new approach, in which current wavefield is estimated in real time, and then future wavefield is predicted time evolutionally from the current situation using physics of wave propagation. Here, hypocenter and magnitude are not necessarily required, but real-time observation of ground shaking is necessary. JMA also plans to predict long period ground motion (up to 8 s) with the EEW system for earthquake damage mitigation in high-rise buildings. Its test will start using the operational system in the near future.

  6. Fault deformation anomaly and intermedi-ate and short-term prediction of the Jingtai Ms=5.9 earthquake

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The time-space distribution characteristics of fault deformationanomaly in the near-source region and its outly-ing zone in the seismogenic process of the Jingtai MS=5.9 earthquake occurred on June 6, 2000 in Gansu Province is studied preliminarily. The distribution scope of fault deformation anomaly before the earthquake is wide, the anomaly shape is complicated and the pattern anomalous zone of fault deformation (strain) information index is obvious. The shape and amplitude of fault deformation anomaly in different regions differ significantly, which is closely related with the tectonic location of anomaly. The fault deformation anomaly of a, b, and g phases along the western segment of Haiyuan fault zone shows the process from the quasi-linearity to non-linearity of fault movement in the near-source region, matches the high-value anomalous area of fault deforma-tion (strain) information index, and reflects the high strain accumulation in the seismogenic region. However, the anomaly of abrupt jump and cusp with a large amplitude occurred in the areas far from the earthquake, such as Liupanshan fault zone which is the tectonic convergent section does not reflect the strain accumulation of its location, maybe it is a sign that the regional tectonic stress field is strengthened in the seismogenic process. Based on the above-mentioned facts and combined with the preliminary summary of experiences and lessons in the intermediate and short-term prediction of the Jingtai MS=5.9 earthquake, we study and explore the applica-tion of fault deformation anomaly to earthquake judgment.

  7. Cumulative early life adversity predicts longevity in wild baboons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tung, Jenny; Archie, Elizabeth A; Altmann, Jeanne; Alberts, Susan C

    2016-04-19

    In humans and other animals, harsh circumstances in early life predict morbidity and mortality in adulthood. Multiple adverse conditions are thought to be especially toxic, but this hypothesis has rarely been tested in a prospective, longitudinal framework, especially in long-lived mammals. Here we use prospective data on 196 wild female baboons to show that cumulative early adversity predicts natural adult lifespan. Females who experience ≥3 sources of early adversity die a median of 10 years earlier than females who experience ≤1 adverse circumstances (median lifespan is 18.5 years). Females who experience the most adversity are also socially isolated in adulthood, suggesting that social processes partially explain the link between early adversity and adult survival. Our results provide powerful evidence for the developmental origins of health and disease and indicate that close ties between early adversity and survival arise even in the absence of health habit and health care-related explanations.

  8. A Threshold-Based Earthquake Early-Warning System for Offshore Events in Southern Iberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Picozzi, M.; Colombelli, S.; Zollo, A.; Carranza, M.; Buforn, E.

    2015-09-01

    The south of the Iberian Peninsula is situated at the convergence of the Eurasian and African plates. This region experiences large earthquakes with long separation in time, the best known of which was the great 1755 Lisbon Earthquake, which occurred SW of San Vicente Cape (SW Iberian Peninsula). The high risk of damaging earthquakes has recently led Carranza et al. (Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 2013) to investigate the feasibility of an EEWS in this region. Analysis of the geometry for the Iberian seismic networks and the San Vicente Cape area led the authors to conclude that a threshold-based approach, which would not require real-time location of the earthquake, might be the best option for an EEWS in SW Iberia. In this work we investigate this hypothesis and propose a new EEW approach that extends standard P-wave threshold-based single-station analysis to the whole network. The proposed method enables real-time estimation of the potential damage at stations that are triggered by P-waves and those which are not triggered, with the advantage of greater lead-times for release of alerts. Results of tests made with synthetic data mimicking the scenario of the great 1755 Lisbon Earthquake, and those conducted by applying the new approach to available recordings, indicate that an EEW estimation of the potential damage associated with an event in the San Vicente Cape area can be obtained for a very large part of the Iberian Peninsula.

  9. Large early afterslip following the 1995/10/09 Mw 8 Jalisco, Mexico earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hjörleifsdóttir, Vala; Sánchez Reyes, Hugo Samuel; Ruiz-Angulo, Angel; Ramirez-Herrera, Maria Teresa; Castillo-Aja, Rosío; Krishna Singh, Shri; Ji, Chen

    2017-04-01

    The behaviour of slip close to the trench during earthquakes is not well understood, with some earthquakes breaking only the near trench area, most earthquakes breaking only the deeper part of the fault interface, whereas a few break both simultaneously. Observations of multiple earthquakes breaking different down dip segments of the same subduction segment are rare. The 1995 Mw 8 Jalisco earthquake, seems to have broken the near trench area, as evidenced by anomalously small accelerations for its size, the excitation of a tsunami, a small Ms relative to Mw and a small ratio between the radiated energy and moment (Pacheco et al 1997). However, slip models obtained using GPS campaign data, indicate slip near shore (Melbourne et al 1997, Hutton et al 2001). We invert tele seismic P- and S-waves, Rayleigh and Love waves, as well as the static offsets measured by campaign GPS models, to obtain the slip distribution on the fault as a function of time, during the earthquake. We confirm that the slip models obtained using only seismic data are most consistent with slip near the trench, whereas those obtained using only GPS data are consistent with slip closer to the coast. We find remarkable similarity with models of other researchers (Hutton et al 2001, Mendoza et al 1999) using the same datasets, even though the slip distributions from each dataset are almost complementary. To resolve this inconsistency we jointly invert the datasets. However, we find that the joint inversions do not produce adequate fits to both seismic and GPS data. Furthermore, we model tsunami observations on the coast, to constrain further the plausible slip models. Assuming that the discrepancy stems from slip that occurred within the time window between the campaign GPS measurements, but not during the earthquake, we model the residual displacements by very localised slip on the interface down dip from the coseismic slip. Aftershocks (Pacheco et al 1997) align on mostly between the non

  10. Feasibility study on earthquake early warning application to schools: the example of the ITIS 'E. Majorana', Somma Vesuviana, Naples (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emolo, Antonio; Zollo, Aldo; Picozzi, Matteo; Martino, Claudio; Elia, Luca; Verderame, Gerardo; De Risi, Maria Teresa; Ricci, Paolo; Lombardi, Anna; Bindi, Dino; Parolai, Stefano; Boxberger, Tobias; Miranda, Nicola

    2014-05-01

    One of the main objective of the WP7 (Strategic Applications and Capacity Building) in the framework of the REAKT-Strategies and tools for Real Time Earthquake RisK ReducTion FP7 European project, is to evaluate the effectiveness of EEW and real-time risk assessment procedures in reducing seismic risk to various industrial partners and end-users. In the context of the REAKT project, the AMRA-RISSCLab group is engaged in a feasibility study on the application of earthquake early-warning procedures in two high schools located in the Irpinia region (South Italy), an area that in the 1980 was struck by a magnitude 6.9 earthquake. In this work we report on the activities carried out during the last 24 Months at the school ITIS 'E. Majorana', located in Somma Vesuviana, a village in the neighbourhood of Naples. In order to perform a continuous seismic monitoring of the site, which includes a rather complex structure building, 5 accelerometric stations have been installed in different part of the school. In particular, a 24-bit ADC (Sigma/Delta) Agecodagis-Kefren data-logger has been installed with a Guralp CMG-5TC accelerometer with a 0.25g full-scale in the school courtyard, while 4 SOSEWIN sensors have been also installed at different locations within the building. Commercial ADSL lines provide transmission of real-time data to the EEW centre. Data streams are now acquired in real-time in the PRESToPlus (regional and on-site, threshold-based early-warning) software platform [1]. The recent December 29, 2013 M 5.1 Monti del Matese Earthquake, gave us the unique opportunity to use real strong motion data to test the performance of threshold-based early warning method at the school. The on-site method [2] aims to define alert levels at the monitored site. In particular, at each station the characteristic P-waves period (τc) and the peak displacement (Pd) are measured on the initial P-wave signal. They are compared with threshold values, previously established through an

  11. Bayesian forecasting of recurrent earthquakes and predictive performance for a small sample size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nomura, S.; Ogata, Y.; Komaki, F.; Toda, S.

    2011-04-01

    This paper presents a Bayesian method of probability forecasting for a renewal of earthquakes. When only limited records of characteristic earthquakes on a fault are available, relevant prior distributions for renewal model parameters are essential to computing unbiased, stable time-dependent earthquake probabilities. We also use event slip and geological slip rate data combined with historical earthquake records to improve our forecast model. We apply the Brownian Passage Time (BPT) model and make use of the best fit prior distribution for its coefficient of variation (the shape parameter, alpha) relative to the mean recurrence time because the Earthquake Research Committee (ERC) of Japan uses the BPT model for long-term forecasting. Currently, more than 110 active faults have been evaluated by the ERC, but most include very few paleoseismic events. We objectively select the prior distribution with the Akaike Bayesian Information Criterion using all available recurrence data including the ERC datasets. These data also include mean recurrence times estimated from slip per event divided by long-term slip rate. By comparing the goodness of fit to the historical record and simulated data, we show that the proposed predictor provides more stable performance than plug-in predictors, such as maximum likelihood estimates and the predictor currently adopted by the ERC.

  12. An Approach to Early Prediction of Software Quality

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YAO Lan; YANG Bo

    2007-01-01

    Due to the rapid development of computers and their applications, early software quality prediction in software industry becomes more and more crucial. Software quality prediction model is very helpful for decision-makings such as the allocation of resource in module verification and validation. Nevertheless, due to the complicated situations of software development process in the early stage, the applicability and accuracy of these models are still under research. In this paper, a software quality prediction model based on a fuzzy neural network is presented, which takes into account both the internal factors and external factors of software. With hybrid-learning algorithm, the proposed model can deal with multiple forms of data as well as incomplete information, which helps identify design errors early and avoid expensive rework.

  13. A landslide susceptibility prediction on a sample slope in Kathmandu Nepal associated with the 2015's Gorkha Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubota, Tetsuya; Prasad Paudel, Prem

    2016-04-01

    In 2013, some landslides induced by heavy rainfalls occurred in southern part of Kathmandu, Nepal which is located southern suburb of Kathmandu, the capital. These landslide slopes hit by the strong Gorkha Earthquake in April 2015 and seemed to destabilize again. Hereby, to clarify their susceptibility of landslide in the earthquake, one of these landslide slopes was analyzed its slope stability by CSSDP (Critical Slip Surface analysis by Dynamic Programming based on limit equilibrium method, especially Janbu method) against slope failure with various seismic acceleration observed around Kathmandu in the Gorkha Earthquake. The CSSDP can detect the landslide slip surface which has minimum Fs (factor of safety) automatically using dynamic programming theory. The geology in this area mainly consists of fragile schist and it is prone to landslide occurrence. Field survey was conducted to obtain topological data such as ground surface and slip surface cross section. Soil parameters obtained by geotechnical tests with field sampling were applied. Consequently, the slope has distinctive characteristics followings in terms of slope stability: (1) With heavy rainfall, it collapsed and had a factor of safety Fs <1.0 (0.654 or more). (2) With seismic acceleration of 0.15G (147gal) observed around Kathmandu, it has Fs=1.34. (3) With possible local seismic acceleration of 0.35G (343gal) estimated at Kathmandu, it has Fs=0.989. If it were very shallow landslide and covered with cedars, it could have Fs =1.055 due to root reinforcement effect to the soil strength. (4) Without seismic acceleration and with no rainfall condition, it has Fs=1.75. These results can explain the real landslide occurrence in this area with the maximum seismic acceleration estimated as 0.15G in the vicinity of Kathmandu by the Gorkha Earthquake. Therefore, these results indicate landslide susceptibility of the slopes in this area with strong earthquake. In this situation, it is possible to predict

  14. Earthquake Risk - SEISMIC_SHAKING_PREDICTED_RESPONSE_RP35_IN: Predicted Responses of Geologic Materials to Seismically Induced Ground Shaking (Indiana Geological Survey, 1:500,000, Polygon Shapefile)

    Data.gov (United States)

    NSGIC GIS Inventory (aka Ramona) — SEISMIC_SHAKING_PREDICTED_RESPONSE_RP35_IN is a polygon shapefile that shows the distribution and classification of National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program...

  15. Early productive vocabulary predicts academic achievement 10 years later

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bleses, Dorthe; Makransky, Guido; Dale, Philip

    2016-01-01

    We use a longitudinal design to examine associations for 2,120 16-30 months old children between early expressive vocabulary and later reading and math outcomes in the 6th Grade based on a large and diverse sample of Danish children. Educational outcomes, in particular decoding and reading...... comprehension, can be predicted from an early vocabulary measure as early as 16 months with effect sizes (in proportion of variance accounted for) comparable to one year’s mean growth in reading scores. The findings confirm in a relatively large population based study that late talkers are at risk for later...

  16. GLONASS Precise Point Positioning with Ambiguity Resolution (PPP-AR) and its Integration with GPS for Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Y.; Geng, J.; Avallone, A.; Ganas, A.; Melgar, D.; Riquelme, S.

    2015-12-01

    GPS has been recognized as an essential technique to measure static and dynamic displacements for earthquake early warning (EEW), in particular for near-field large earthquake monitoring where broadband seismometers clip, filtering of strong-motion accelerometer data eliminates the static component, and seismic data are affected by magnitude saturation. We have developed a prototype EEW system for the U.S. West Coast using real-time precise point positioning with ambiguity resolution (PPP-AR). It includes about 200 GPS stations spanning the areas of greatest seismic risk: Cascadia, the San Francisco Bay Area and southern California, using IGS ultra-rapid orbits and a North-America based GPS network well outside the region of expected deformation to estimate satellite clock and fractional cycle biases. We have analyzed, retrospectively in real time, earthquakes from Mw5.1 to Mw9.0; we can detect dynamic displacements with a precision of about one cm, but we've encountered several issues that could improve our operational system. Reinitialization of the integer-cycle phase ambiguities is problematic when a (not unusual) data gap of more than about 5 minutes is encountered. Also, ambiguity resolution is less reliable when there are only a limited number (six or less) of GPS satellites available. Nowadays, GNSS is evolving to a true multi-constellation environment with GLONASS having been restored to a 24-satellite constellation in 2012. We present a method for GNSS (GPS+GLONASS) PPP-AR to improve on the performance of GPS PPP-AR in EEW. We find that GNSS-AR has higher reliability in achieving ambiguity-fixed solutions, improves vertical accuracy by 20%, reduces initialization time to less than 7 minutes from about 20 minutes, and reduces outlier rates from 1.2% to below 0.2%. We use three earthquakes to demonstrate GNSS-AR, the M7.8 2014 Iquique, Chile aftershock, and Mw 6.9 2014 North Aegean, Greece and Mw 6.3 2009 L'Aquila, Italy earthquakes.

  17. Application of Ambient Stress Parameters to Short-Term Prediction of the 2004,Ms5.0 Shuangbai,Yunnan Earthquake

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Qian Xiaodong; Qin Jiazheng

    2007-01-01

    Based on the data recorded by the regional digital seismic network of Yunnan and using new methods,the short-term variations of the ambient stress field of Yunnan and its adjacent areas are monitored in real time.With the in-depth analyses of the spatial-temporal evolution of the ambient stress field prior to the 2004,Shuangbai Ms5.0 earthquake,concrete procedures for predicting the three elements of the earthquake are presented.

  18. Earthquake ground motion prediction for real sedimentary basins: which numerical schemes are applicable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moczo, P.; Kristek, J.; Galis, M.; Pazak, P.

    2009-12-01

    Numerical prediction of earthquake ground motion in sedimentary basins and valleys often has to account for P-wave to S-wave speed ratios (Vp/Vs) as large as 5 and even larger, mainly in sediments below groundwater level. The ratio can attain values larger than 10 in unconsolidated sediments (e.g. in Ciudad de México). In a process of developing 3D optimally-accurate finite-difference schemes we encountered a serious problem with accuracy in media with large Vp/Vs ratio. This led us to investigate the very fundamental reasons for the inaccuracy. In order to identify the very basic inherent aspects of the numerical schemes responsible for their behavior with varying Vp/Vs ratio, we restricted to the most basic 2nd-order 2D numerical schemes on a uniform grid in a homogeneous medium. Although basic in the specified sense, the schemes comprise the decisive features for accuracy of wide class of numerical schemes. We investigated 6 numerical schemes: finite-difference_displacement_conventional grid (FD_D_CG) finite-element_Lobatto integration (FE_L) finite-element_Gauss integration (FE_G) finite-difference_displacement-stress_partly-staggered grid (FD_DS_PSG) finite-difference_displacement-stress_staggered grid (FD_DS_SG) finite-difference_velocity-stress_staggered grid (FD_VS_SG) We defined and calculated local errors of the schemes in amplitude and polarization. Because different schemes use different time steps, they need different numbers of time levels to calculate solution for a desired time window. Therefore, we normalized errors for a unit time. The normalization allowed for a direct comparison of errors of different schemes. Extensive numerical calculations for wide ranges of values of the Vp/Vs ratio, spatial sampling ratio, stability ratio, and entire range of directions of propagation with respect to the spatial grid led to interesting and surprising findings. Accuracy of FD_D_CG, FE_L and FE_G strongly depends on Vp/Vs ratio. The schemes are not

  19. Does physical abuse in early childhood predict substance use in adolescence and early adulthood?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lansford, Jennifer E; Dodge, Kenneth A; Pettit, Gregory S; Bates, John E

    2010-05-01

    Prospective longitudinal data from 585 families were used to examine parents' reports of child physical abuse in the first 5 years of life as a predictor of substance use at ages 12, 16, and 24. Path analyses revealed that physical abuse in the first 5 years of life predicted subsequent substance use for females but not males. We found a direct effect of early physical abuse on girls'substance use at age 12 and indirect effects on substance use at age 16 and age 24 through substance use at age 12. For boys, age 12 substance use predicted age 16 substance use, and age 16 substance use predicted age 24 substance use, but physical abuse in the first 5 years of life was unrelated to subsequent substance use. These findings suggest that for females, a mechanism of influence of early physical abuse on substance use into early adulthood appears to be through precocious initiation of substance use in early adolescence.

  20. Early Prediction of Reading Comprehension within the Simple View Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catts, Hugh W.; Herrera, Sarah; Nielsen, Diane Corcoran; Bridges, Mindy Sittner

    2015-01-01

    The simple view of reading proposes that reading comprehension is the product of word reading and language comprehension. In this study, we used the simple view framework to examine the early prediction of reading comprehension abilities. Using multiple measures for all constructs, we assessed word reading precursors (i.e., letter knowledge,…

  1. Early Prediction of Reading Comprehension within the Simple View Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catts, Hugh W.; Herrera, Sarah; Nielsen, Diane Corcoran; Bridges, Mindy Sittner

    2015-01-01

    The simple view of reading proposes that reading comprehension is the product of word reading and language comprehension. In this study, we used the simple view framework to examine the early prediction of reading comprehension abilities. Using multiple measures for all constructs, we assessed word reading precursors (i.e., letter knowledge,…

  2. Predictive coding for motion stimuli in human early visual cortex

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schellekens, Wouter; van Wezel, Richard J A; Petridou, Natalia; Ramsey, Nick F.; Raemaekers, Mathijs

    2016-01-01

    The current study investigates if early visual cortical areas, V1, V2 and V3, use predictive coding to process motion information. Previous studies have reported biased visual motion responses at locations where novel visual information was presented (i.e., the motion trailing edge), which is plausi

  3. Predictive coding for motion stimuli in human early visual cortex

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schellekens, Wouter; Wezel, van Richard J.A.; Petridou, Natalia; Ramsey, Nick F.; Raemeakers, Mathijs; Zaborszky, L.; Zilles, K.

    2014-01-01

    The current study investigates if early visual cortical areas, V1, V2 and V3, use predictive coding to process motion information. Previous studies have reported biased visual motion responses at locations where novel visual information was presented (i.e., the motion trailing edge), which is plausi

  4. Guidelines for the early detection of osteoporosis and prediction of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Early intervention has been shown to reduce the rate of vertebral and hip fractures by 50 - 70%. ... clinical practice to predict fracture risk and to set guidelines for its use. Methods ... interest groups, which included the Society for. Endocrinology ...

  5. Improvement of the Earthquake Early Warning System with Wavefield Extrapolation with Apparent Velocity and Direction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, A.; Yomogida, K.

    2014-12-01

    The early warning system operated by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has been available in public since October 2007.The present system is still not effective in cases, that we cannot assume a nearly circular wavefront expansion from a source. We propose a new approach based on the extrapolation of the early observed wavefield alone without estimating its epicenter. The idea is similar to the migration method in exploration seismology, but we use not only the information of wave field at an early stage (i.e., at time T2 in Figure, but also its normal derivatives the difference between T1 and T2), that is, we utilize the apparent velocity and direction of early-stage wave propagation to predict the wavefield later (at T3 in Fig.). For the extrapolation of wavefield, we need a reliable Green's function from the observed point to a target point at which the wave arrives later. Since the complete 3-D wave propagation is extremely complex, particularly in and around Japan of highly heterogeneous structures, we shall consider a phenomenological 2-D Green's function, that is, a wavefront propagates on the surface with a certain apparent velocity and direction of P wave. This apparent velocity and direction may vary significantly depending on, for example, event depth and an area of propagation, so we examined those of P wave propagating in Japan in various situations. For example, the velocity of shallow events in Hokkaido is 7.1km/s while that in Nagano prefecture is about 5.5km/s. In addition, the apparent velocity depends on event depth, 7.1km/s for the depth of 10km and 8.9km/s for 100km in Hokkaido. We also conducted f-k array analyses of adjacent five or six stations where we can accurately estimate the apparent velocity and direction of P wave. For deep events with relatively simple waveforms, they are easily obtained, but we may need site corrections to enhance correlations of waveforms among stations for shallow ones. In the above extrapolation scheme, we can

  6. Investigating 19th and early 20th century Earthquakes in the Eastern Cape Province (South Africa)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albini, Paola; Strasser, Fleur O.; Flint, Nicolette S.

    2014-05-01

    The seismicity for the years between 1820 and 1936 of Grahamstown, a settlement located in the heart of the current Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, is investigated with recourse to contemporaneous documentary sources. This investigation led to the development of a seismic history incorporating consideration of the broader geo-political context of the Eastern Cape colonial territory at that time. Individual studies of five regional events, ranging from Mw 6 to 4, that were felt in Grahamstown during that period are presented. An additional earthquake that was not felt at Grahamstown was included to present the exhaustive approach adopted in the study of the seismicity of the area. Each earthquake study includes the development of a full set of intensity data points (IDPs), which are used to determine reappraised epicentral locations and magnitudes, some of which differ significantly from previously listed parameters. The results thus obtained highlight the value of seeking out additional contemporary sources from a variety of sources in different languages when revisiting the source parameters of earthquakes for which no or only very limited instrumental information is available.

  7. Assessing the capability of numerical methods to predict earthquake ground motion: the Euroseistest verification and validation project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaljub, E. O.; Bard, P.; Tsuno, S.; Kristek, J.; Moczo, P.; Franek, P.; Hollender, F.; Manakou, M.; Raptakis, D.; Pitilakis, K.

    2009-12-01

    During the last decades, an important effort has been dedicated to develop accurate and computationally efficient numerical methods to predict earthquake ground motion in heterogeneous 3D media. The progress in methods and increasing capability of computers have made it technically feasible to calculate realistic seismograms for frequencies of interest in seismic design applications. In order to foster the use of numerical simulation in practical prediction, it is important to (1) evaluate the accuracy of current numerical methods when applied to realistic 3D applications where no reference solution exists (verification) and (2) quantify the agreement between recorded and numerically simulated earthquake ground motion (validation). Here we report the results of the Euroseistest verification and validation project - an ongoing international collaborative work organized jointly by the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece, the Cashima research project (supported by the French nuclear agency, CEA, and the Laue-Langevin institute, ILL, Grenoble), and the Joseph Fourier University, Grenoble, France. The project involves more than 10 international teams from Europe, Japan and USA. The teams employ the Finite Difference Method (FDM), the Finite Element Method (FEM), the Global Pseudospectral Method (GPSM), the Spectral Element Method (SEM) and the Discrete Element Method (DEM). The project makes use of a new detailed 3D model of the Mygdonian basin (about 5 km wide, 15 km long, sediments reach about 400 m depth, surface S-wave velocity is 200 m/s). The prime target is to simulate 8 local earthquakes with magnitude from 3 to 5. In the verification, numerical predictions for frequencies up to 4 Hz for a series of models with increasing structural and rheological complexity are analyzed and compared using quantitative time-frequency goodness-of-fit criteria. Predictions obtained by one FDM team and the SEM team are close and different from other predictions

  8. A Test of a Strong Ground Motion Prediction Methodology for the 7 September 1999, Mw=6.0 Athens Earthquake

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hutchings, L; Ioannidou, E; Voulgaris, N; Kalogeras, I; Savy, J; Foxall, W; Stavrakakis, G

    2004-08-06

    We test a methodology to predict the range of ground-motion hazard for a fixed magnitude earthquake along a specific fault or within a specific source volume, and we demonstrate how to incorporate this into probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA). We modeled ground motion with empirical Green's functions. We tested our methodology with the 7 September 1999, Mw=6.0 Athens earthquake, we: (1) developed constraints on rupture parameters based on prior knowledge of earthquake rupture processes and sources in the region; (2) generated impulsive point shear source empirical Green's functions by deconvolving out the source contribution of M < 4.0 aftershocks; (3) used aftershocks that occurred throughout the area and not necessarily along the fault to be modeled; (4) ran a sufficient number of scenario earthquakes to span the full variability of ground motion possible; (5) found that our distribution of synthesized ground motions span what actually occurred and their distribution is realistically narrow; (6) determined that one of our source models generates records that match observed time histories well; (7) found that certain combinations of rupture parameters produced ''extreme'' ground motions at some stations; (8) identified that the ''best fitting'' rupture models occurred in the vicinity of 38.05{sup o} N 23.60{sup o} W with center of rupture near 12 km, and near unilateral rupture towards the areas of high damage, and this is consistent with independent investigations; and (9) synthesized strong motion records in high damage areas for which records from the earthquake were not recorded. We then developed a demonstration PSHA for a source region near Athens utilizing synthesized ground motion rather that traditional attenuation. We synthesized 500 earthquakes distributed throughout the source zone likely to have Mw=6.0 earthquakes near Athens. We assumed an average return period of 1000 years for this

  9. Building a Communication, Education, an Outreach Program for the ShakeAlert National Earthquake Early Warning Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeGroot, R. M.; Strauss, J. A.; Given, D. D.; Cochran, E. S.; Burkett, E. R.; Long, K.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems can provide as much as tens of seconds of warning to people and automated systems before strong shaking arrives. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners are developing an EEW system for the West Coast of the United States. To be an integral part of successful implementation, EEW engagement programs and materials must integrate with and leverage broader earthquake risk programs. New methods and products for dissemination must be multidisciplinary, cost effective, and consistent with existing hazards education efforts. Our presentation outlines how the USGS and its partners will approach this effort in the context of the EEW system through the work of a multistate and multiagency committee that participates in the design, implementation, and evaluation of a portfolio of programs and products. This committee, referred to as the ShakeAlert Joint Committee for Communication, Education, and Outreach (ShakeAlert CEO), is working to identify, develop, and cultivate partnerships with EEW stakeholders including Federal, State, academic partners, private companies, policy makers, and local organizations. Efforts include developing materials, methods for delivery, and reaching stakeholders with information on EEW, earthquake preparedness, and emergency protective actions. It is essential to develop standards to ensure information communicated via the EEW alerts is consistent across the public and private sector and achieving a common understanding of what actions users take when they receive an EEW warning. The USGS and the participating states and agencies acknowledge that the implementation of EEW is a collective effort requiring the participation of hundreds of stakeholders committed to ensuring public accessibility.

  10. Unusual Animal Behavior Preceding the 2011 Earthquake off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku, Japan: A Way to Predict the Approach of Large Earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroyuki Yamauchi

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Unusual animal behaviors (UABs have been observed before large earthquakes (EQs, however, their mechanisms are unclear. While information on UABs has been gathered after many EQs, few studies have focused on the ratio of emerged UABs or specific behaviors prior to EQs. On 11 March 2011, an EQ (Mw 9.0 occurred in Japan, which took about twenty thousand lives together with missing and killed persons. We surveyed UABs of pets preceding this EQ using a questionnaire. Additionally, we explored whether dairy cow milk yields varied before this EQ in particular locations. In the results, 236 of 1,259 dog owners and 115 of 703 cat owners observed UABs in their pets, with restless behavior being the most prominent change in both species. Most UABs occurred within one day of the EQ. The UABs showed a precursory relationship with epicentral distance. Interestingly, cow milk yields in a milking facility within 340 km of the epicenter decreased significantly about one week before the EQ. However, cows in facilities farther away showed no significant decreases. Since both the pets’ behavior and the dairy cows’ milk yields were affected prior to the EQ, with careful observation they could contribute to EQ predictions.

  11. 世界上第一个地震预警系统%World's First Earthquake Early Alert1 System in

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杜淑萍

    2006-01-01

    @@ The world's first earthquake early warning system has begun operating in Japan. The government-developed system takes advantage of the precious seconds between the first indication of a powerful tremor2 and the arrival of the second, destructive terrestrial3 shock.Some people have reservations4 about broadcasting such alerts.

  12. Predicting Early Maladaptive Schemas Using Baumrind’s Parenting Styles

    OpenAIRE

    Esmali Kooraneh, Ahmad; Amirsardari, Leili

    2015-01-01

    Background: Families play an essential role in maintaining children’s mental, social, and physical health. The family provides the first and the most important social context for human development. Objectives: The present study aimed to predict early maladaptive schemas using Baumrind’s parenting styles (root development). Patients and Methods: A total of 357 undergraduate students of Islamic Azad University, Urmia Branch, Iran, were selected through random cluster sampling during 2013 and 20...

  13. Prenatal substance exposure: What predicts behavioral resilience by early adolescence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liebschutz, Jane M; Crooks, Denise; Rose-Jacobs, Ruth; Cabral, Howard J; Heeren, Timothy C; Gerteis, Jessie; Appugliese, Danielle P; Heymann, Orlaith D; Lange, Allison V; Frank, Deborah A

    2015-06-01

    Understanding behavioral resilience among at-risk adolescents may guide public policy decisions and future programs. We examined factors predicting behavioral resilience following intrauterine substance exposure in a prospective longitudinal birth-cohort study of 136 early adolescents (ages 12.4-15.9 years) at risk for poor behavioral outcomes. We defined behavioral resilience as a composite measure of lack of early substance use initiation (before age 14), lack of risky sexual behavior, or lack of delinquency. Intrauterine substance exposures included in this analysis were cocaine, tobacco, alcohol, and marijuana. We recruited participants from Boston Medical Center as mother-infant dyads between 1990 and 1993. The majority of the sample was African American/Caribbean (88%) and 49% female. In bivariate analyses, none and lower intrauterine cocaine exposure level predicted resilience compared with higher cocaine exposure, but this effect was not found in an adjusted model. Instead, strict caregiver supervision (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 6.02, 95% confidence interval (CI) [1.90, 19.00], p = .002), lower violence exposure (AOR = 4.07, 95% CI [1.77, 9.38], p < .001), and absence of intrauterine tobacco exposure (AOR = 3.71, 95% CI [1.28, 10.74], p = .02) predicted behavioral resilience. In conclusion, caregiver supervision in early adolescence, lower violence exposure in childhood, and lack of intrauterine tobacco exposure predicted behavioral resilience among a cohort of early adolescents with significant social and environmental risk. Future interventions should work to enhance parental supervision as a way to mitigate the effects of adversity on high-risk groups of adolescents. (PsycINFO Database Record

  14. Methods for early prediction of lactation flow in Holstein heifers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vesna Gantner

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research was to define methods for early prediction (based on I. milk control record of lactation flow in Holstein heifers as well as to choose optimal one in terms of prediction fit and application simplicity. Total of 304,569 daily yield records automatically recorded on a 1,136 first lactation Holstein cows, from March 2003 till August 2008., were included in analysis. According to the test date, calving date, the age at first calving, lactation stage when I. milk control occurred and to the average milk yield in first 25th, T1 (and 25th-45th, T2 lactation days, measuring monthcalving month-age-production-time-period subgroups were formed. The parameters of analysed nonlinear and linear methods were estimated for each defined subgroup. As models evaluation measures,adjusted coefficient of determination, and average and standard deviation of error were used. Considering obtained results, in terms of total variance explanation (R2 adj, the nonlinear Wood’s method showed superiority above the linear ones (Wilmink’s, Ali-Schaeffer’s and Guo-Swalve’s method in both time-period subgroups (T1 - 97.5 % of explained variability; T2 - 98.1 % of explained variability. Regarding the evaluation measures based on prediction error amount (eavg±eSD, the lowest average error of daily milk yield prediction (less than 0.005 kg/day, as well as of lactation milk yield prediction (less than 50 kg/lactation (T1 time-period subgroup and less than 30 kg/lactation (T2 time-period subgroup; were determined when Wood’s nonlinear prediction method were applied. Obtained results indicate that estimated Wood’s regression parameters could be used in routine work for early prediction of Holstein heifer’s lactation flow.

  15. Early social networks predict survival in wild bottlenose dolphins.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret A Stanton

    Full Text Available A fundamental question concerning group-living species is what factors influence the evolution of sociality. Although several studies link adult social bonds to fitness, social patterns and relationships are often formed early in life and are also likely to have fitness consequences, particularly in species with lengthy developmental periods, extensive social learning, and early social bond-formation. In a longitudinal study of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops sp., calf social network structure, specifically the metric eigenvector centrality, predicted juvenile survival in males. Additionally, male calves that died post-weaning had stronger ties to juvenile males than surviving male calves, suggesting that juvenile males impose fitness costs on their younger counterparts. Our study indicates that selection is acting on social traits early in life and highlights the need to examine the costs and benefits of social bonds during formative life history stages.

  16. A new type of tri-axial accelerometers with high dynamic range MEMS for earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Chaoyong; Chen, Yang; Chen, Quansheng; Yang, Jiansi; Wang, Hongti; Zhu, Xiaoyi; Xu, Zhiqiang; Zheng, Yu

    2017-03-01

    Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS) has shown its efficiency for earthquake damage mitigation. As the progress of low-cost Micro Electro Mechanical System (MEMS), many types of MEMS-based accelerometers have been developed and widely used in deploying large-scale, dense seismic networks for EEWS. However, the noise performance of these commercially available MEMS is still insufficient for weak seismic signals, leading to the large scatter of early-warning parameters estimation. In this study, we developed a new type of tri-axial accelerometer based on high dynamic range MEMS with low noise level using for EEWS. It is a MEMS-integrated data logger with built-in seismological processing. The device is built on a custom-tailored Linux 2.6.27 operating system and the method for automatic detecting seismic events is STA/LTA algorithms. When a seismic event is detected, peak ground parameters of all data components will be calculated at an interval of 1 s, and τc-Pd values will be evaluated using the initial 3 s of P wave. These values will then be organized as a trigger packet actively sent to the processing center for event combining detection. The output data of all three components are calibrated to sensitivity 500 counts/cm/s2. Several tests and a real field test deployment were performed to obtain the performances of this device. The results show that the dynamic range can reach 98 dB for the vertical component and 99 dB for the horizontal components, and majority of bias temperature coefficients are lower than 200 μg/°C. In addition, the results of event detection and real field deployment have shown its capabilities for EEWS and rapid intensity reporting.

  17. Early prediction of blonanserin response in Japanese patients with schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kishi, Taro; Matsuda, Yuki; Fujita, Kiyoshi; Iwata, Nakao

    2014-01-01

    Blonanserin is a second-generation antipsychotic used for the treatment of schizophrenia in Japan and Korea. The present study aimed to examine early prediction of blonanserin in patients with schizophrenia. An 8-week, prospective, single-arm, flexible-dose clinical trial of blonanserin in patients with schizophrenia was conducted under real-world conditions. The inclusion criteria were antipsychotic naïve, and first-episode schizophrenia patients or schizophrenia patients with no consumption of any antipsychotic medication for more than 4 weeks before enrollment in this study. The positive predictive value, negative predictive value, sensitivity, specificity, and predictive power were calculated for the response status at week 4 to predict the subsequent response at week 8. Thirty-seven patients were recruited (56.8% of them had first-episode schizophrenia), and 28 (75.7%) completed the trial. At week 8, blonanserin was associated with a significant improvement in the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) total score (Pblonanserin response at week 4 could predict the later response at week 8.

  18. Meal frequencies in early adolescence predict meal frequencies in late adolescence and early adulthood

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Trine Pagh; Holstein, Bjørn E; Flachs, Esben Meulengracht

    2013-01-01

    Health and risk behaviours tend to be maintained from adolescence into adulthood. There is little knowledge on whether meal frequencies in adolescence are maintained into adulthood. We investigated whether breakfast, lunch and evening meal frequencies in early adolescence predicted meal frequencies...

  19. Nucleation process of magnitude 2 repeating earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault predicted by rate-and-state fault models with SAFOD drill core data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneko, Yoshihiro; Carpenter, Brett M.; Nielsen, Stefan B.

    2017-01-01

    Recent laboratory shear-slip experiments conducted on a nominally flat frictional interface reported the intriguing details of a two-phase nucleation of stick-slip motion that precedes the dynamic rupture propagation. This behavior was subsequently reproduced by a physics-based model incorporating laboratory-derived rate-and-state friction laws. However, applying the laboratory and theoretical results to the nucleation of crustal earthquakes remains challenging due to poorly constrained physical and friction properties of fault zone rocks at seismogenic depths. Here we apply the same physics-based model to simulate the nucleation process of crustal earthquakes using unique data acquired during the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD) experiment and new and existing measurements of friction properties of SAFOD drill core samples. Using this well-constrained model, we predict what the nucleation phase will look like for magnitude ˜2 repeating earthquakes on segments of the San Andreas Fault at a 2.8 km depth. We find that despite up to 3 orders of magnitude difference in the physical and friction parameters and stress conditions, the behavior of the modeled nucleation is qualitatively similar to that of laboratory earthquakes, with the nucleation consisting of two distinct phases. Our results further suggest that precursory slow slip associated with the earthquake nucleation phase may be observable in the hours before the occurrence of the magnitude ˜2 earthquakes by strain measurements close (a few hundred meters) to the hypocenter, in a position reached by the existing borehole.

  20. Tri-Millennial History of Earthquake Offsets of Tell Ateret on the Dead Sea Fault: a perfect time-predictable behavior?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marco, S.; Agnon, A.; Ellenblum, R.

    2010-12-01

    The abundance of archaeological sites and historical documentation along the Dead Sea Fault (DSF) enables a higher resolution for dating of a tectonically active region. The site of Ateret (Jordan Gorge, north Israel), settled since Stone Age, displays abundant well dated walls that were repeatedly offset since the Early Bronze Age to 1759AD. The dated ruptures enable a kinematic reconstruction of this plate boundary, separating between the Arabia and the Sinai tectonic-plates. We have recently unearthed three consecutive offsets that supplement our published data to constrain a five-event catalogue spanning three millennia. The new catalog, totaling five events, sheds light on the distribution of slip in time and space. The archaeologic slip-rate obtained for the last 3 kyr is in perfect agreement with the 5 kyr value known form paleoseismic trenching. The average slip rate, 3 mm/yr, is ~60% of the GPS determined relative plate velocity. The discrepancy between the archaeologically measured slip and the GPS determined velocity is accommodated by diffuse off-fault deformation and possibly by elasticity. Examining the size distribution of detected slip events indicates that a uniform slip model is not compatible with the Jordan Gorge earthquake history: the largest/smallest slip ratio is ≥5. The complexity apparent in the catalog seems to stem from the nearby branching of the plate boundary, as suggested from the two latest events of 1202 AD and 1759 AD, each ruptured a different branch. The archaeologic data supplemented by allegedly dubious historical catalogs generate a perfect time-predictable model for three thousand years ending in the 1950’s. At that time we should have seen an earthquake rupture whilst the instrumental catalog is devoid of such an event. The 1837 AD M7 rupture of a yet smaller branch of the fault can explain the deviation from the model, highlighting the role of branching in generating complex behavior. Slip history at Tel Ateret

  1. Early Psychosocial Stress Predicts Extra-Pair Copulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicole Koehler

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Cheating on a mate, known as an extra-pair copulation (EPC, is considered unacceptable by most individuals. Nonetheless many individuals engage in such risky behaviors. Because individuals with high, as opposed to low, levels of early psychosocial stress are more risk prone and more likely to engage in opportunistic matings, we predicted that individuals reporting EPCs, one of many types of opportunistic mating (e.g., one-night stand, consecutive short-term relationships etc, have higher levels of early psychosocial stress than those who do not. Two types of EPCs were examined: EPC-self (EPC-S, having sex with someone other than one's mate, and EPC-other (EPC-O, having sex with someone else's mate. In a sample of 229 women and 161 men, significantly higher levels of early psychosocial stress were found amongst those reporting an EPC-S than those reporting none, irrespective of EPC-Os. Furthermore, the more EPC-Ss men, but not women, reported the higher their early psychosocial stress. Early psychosocial stress was not associated with EPC-Os irrespective of EPC-Ss. Participants were also classified into one of four groups (no EPCs, EPC-O only, EPC-S only, or EPC-S&O which significantly interacted with early psychosocial stress. Results are discussed from adaptationist and mechanist perspectives and why early psychosocial stress was higher in individuals reporting EPC-Ss irrespective of EPC-Os, but not EPC-Os irrespective of EPC-Ss, than those not reporting the EPC of interest.

  2. Risk Communication on Earthquake Prediction Studies -"No L'Aquila quake risk" experts probed in Italy in June 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oki, S.; Koketsu, K.; Kuwabara, E.; Tomari, J.

    2010-12-01

    For the previous 6 months from the L'Aquila earthquake which occurred on 6th April 2009, the seismicity in that region had been active. Having become even more active and reached to magnitude 4 earthquake on 30th March, the government held Major Risks Committee which is a part of the Civil Protection Department and is tasked with forecasting possible risks by collating and analyzing data from a variety of sources and making preventative recommendations. At the press conference immediately after the committee, they reported that "The scientific community tells us there is no danger, because there is an ongoing discharge of energy. The situation looks favorable." 6 days later, a magunitude 6.3 earthquake attacked L'Aquila and killed 308 people. On 3rd June next year, the prosecutors opened the investigation after complaints of the victims that far more people would have fled their homes that night if there had been no reassurances of the Major Risks Committee the previous week. This issue becomes widely known to the seismological society especially after an email titled "Letter of Support for Italian Earthquake Scientists" from seismologists at the National Geophysics and Volcanology Institute (INGV) sent worldwide. It says that the L'Aquila Prosecutors office indicted of manslaughter the members of the Major Risks Committee and that the charges are for failing to provide a short term alarm to the population before the earthquake struck. It is true that there is no generalized method to predict earthquakes but failing the short term alarm is not the reason for the investigation of the scientists. The chief prosecutor stated that "the committee could have provided the people with better advice", and "it wasn't the case that they did not receive any warnings, because there had been tremors". The email also requests sign-on support for the open letter to the president of Italy from Earth sciences colleagues from all over the world and collected more than 5000 signatures

  3. Predictivity of Early Depressive Symptoms for Post-Stroke Depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewin-Richter, A; Volz, M; Jöbges, M; Werheid, K

    2015-08-01

    Depression is a frequent complication after stroke. However, little is known about the predictive value of early self-reported depressive symptoms (DS) for later development of post-stroke depression (PSD) 6 months after discharge. Using a prospective longitudinal design, we investigated the prevalence of DS and examined their predictive value for depressive disorders 6 months after stroke while statistically controlling major established PSD risk factors. During inpatient rehabilitation, 96 stroke patients were screened for DS. After 6 months, 71 patients were attainable for a follow-up. DS was assessed using the 15-item Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15). At follow-up a telephone interview that included the Structured Clinical Interview for Psychiatric Disorders (SCID), which is based on DSM-IV criteria, and the GDS-15 was conducted. Patients with major depression (MD) at the follow-up were considered to have PSD. Regression analyses were conducted to examine the influence of early DS on PSD after 6 months while controlling for age, premorbid depression, and functional and cognitive impairments. The percentage of patients who scored above the GDS-15 cut-off for clinically relevant DS increased significantly, from 37% to 44%, after 6 months. According to the SCID, 27% of stroke patients fulfilled the criteria for MD, and another 16% fulfilled those for minor depression. Logistic regression showed that DS at baseline significantly predicted PSD at follow-up (odds ratio: 1.43; 95% CI: 1.15-1.8). Self-reported DS during inpatient rehabilitation are predictive for PSD 6 months after discharge. Assessment of early DS contributes to identifying stroke patients at risk for PSD, thereby facilitating prevention and treatment.

  4. The Iquique earthquake sequence of April 2014: Bayesian modeling accounting for prediction uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duputel, Zacharie; Jiang, Junle; Jolivet, Romain; Simons, Mark; Rivera, Luis; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Riel, Bryan; Owen, Susan E; Moore, Angelyn W; Samsonov, Sergey V; Ortega Culaciati, Francisco; Minson, Sarah E.

    2016-01-01

    The subduction zone in northern Chile is a well-identified seismic gap that last ruptured in 1877. On 1 April 2014, this region was struck by a large earthquake following a two week long series of foreshocks. This study combines a wide range of observations, including geodetic, tsunami, and seismic data, to produce a reliable kinematic slip model of the Mw=8.1 main shock and a static slip model of the Mw=7.7 aftershock. We use a novel Bayesian modeling approach that accounts for uncertainty in the Green's functions, both static and dynamic, while avoiding nonphysical regularization. The results reveal a sharp slip zone, more compact than previously thought, located downdip of the foreshock sequence and updip of high-frequency sources inferred by back-projection analysis. Both the main shock and the Mw=7.7 aftershock did not rupture to the trench and left most of the seismic gap unbroken, leaving the possibility of a future large earthquake in the region.

  5. Do First Impressions Matter? Predicting Early Career Teacher Effectiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allison Atteberry

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available As educational policy makers seek strategies to improve the teacher workforce, the early career period represents a unique opportunity to identify struggling teachers, examine the likelihood of future improvement, and make strategic pretenure investments in development or dismissals. It is also a useful time to identify particularly promising teachers for development and focus on high-needs areas. This article asks how much teachers vary in performance improvement during their first 5 years of teaching and to what extent initial job performance predicts later performance. We find that, on average, initial performance is quite predictive of future performance, far more so than typically measured teacher characteristics. This is particularly the case in math, while predictions about future English language arts (ELA performance based on initial ELA value added are less precise. Predictions are most powerful at the extremes. We use these predictions to explore the likelihood that personnel actions based on initial performance would lead to inappropriate distinctions between teachers who would be high or low performing in future years. We also examine the much less discussed costs of failure to distinguish performance when meaningful differences exist. The results point to the potential of policies that make use of teachers’ initial performance to inform personnel decisions.

  6. Predicting Early Maladaptive Schemas Using Baumrind's Parenting Styles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esmali Kooraneh, Ahmad; Amirsardari, Leili

    2015-06-01

    Families play an essential role in maintaining children's mental, social, and physical health. The family provides the first and the most important social context for human development. The present study aimed to predict early maladaptive schemas using Baumrind's parenting styles (root development). A total of 357 undergraduate students of Islamic Azad University, Urmia Branch, Iran, were selected through random cluster sampling during 2013 and 2014. The students were assessed using the Schema Questionnaire-Short Form (SQ-SF) and the Baumrind's parenting styles inventories. The result of regression analysis showed that Baumrind's parenting styles are significant predictors of early maladaptive schemas (P parenting style has some features such as showing high levels of warmth or encouraging kids to express their own possibly divergent opinions. The authoritarian parenting style, however, possesses traits such as heartlessness, impassiveness, strictness, and lack of attention to the children's developmental needs, which is not acceptable.

  7. Predictive Capabilities of Neurobehavioral Diagnostics in Early Childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abramova, Oxana

    2016-05-01

    Modern world experiences annual increase in the number of children born with neurological problems, which in the future may stipulate the development of their neurobehavioral and neuropsychological aberrations. Specific functional features of a child's brain development depend on many factors, but there is a strong need for early clinical and psychological identification of a child's development with a view to elaborate preventive measures, which are often more effective than the treatment or correction of dysfunction, already complicated by compensatory bonds. One should note that despite a high interest in the possibility of predicting the future development of the child in the early ontogenesis, few studies have so far been devoted to the search for indicators that could be meaningful for neuropsychology, neurology, and educational, special, and clinical psychology.

  8. Using Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm for MLP Training on Earthquake Time Series Data Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Shah, Habib; Nawi, Nazri Mohd

    2011-01-01

    Nowadays, computer scientists have shown the interest in the study of social insect's behaviour in neural networks area for solving different combinatorial and statistical problems. Chief among these is the Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) algorithm. This paper investigates the use of ABC algorithm that simulates the intelligent foraging behaviour of a honey bee swarm. Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) trained with the standard back propagation algorithm normally utilises computationally intensive training algorithms. One of the crucial problems with the backpropagation (BP) algorithm is that it can sometimes yield the networks with suboptimal weights because of the presence of many local optima in the solution space. To overcome ABC algorithm used in this work to train MLP learning the complex behaviour of earthquake time series data trained by BP, the performance of MLP-ABC is benchmarked against MLP training with the standard BP. The experimental result shows that MLP-ABC performance is better than MLP-BP for time se...

  9. Monitoring 222 Rn in soil gas of Garfagnana (Tuscany aimed at earthquake prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Pescia

    1994-06-01

    Full Text Available 222 Rn concentration in soil gas from nineteen stations of Garfagnana valley (Central ltaly was continuously monitored from December 1990 to May 1993. 222 Rn activity was measured by solid state nuclear track detector (SSNTD. Tracks detected by spark-counter and by optical microscope were proportionally constant for track densities lower than 2500 tracks/cm2. Since time variations in track density both for the same monitoring station and for different stations are significanfly higher than fluctuations in the experimental conditions, the validity of spark-counter for radon activity measurements is confirmed. Data collected in the period of monitoring indicate significant seasonal variations in radon concentration for every monitoring station. Moreover, the soil characteristics play an important role in determining the observed patterns. No significant correlation could be found between radon emission and seismicity. However, it should be noted that no earthquake with a magnitude higher than 3.5 occurred in Garfagnana during the monitoring period.

  10. Early prediction of blonanserin response in Japanese patients with schizophrenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kishi T

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Taro Kishi,1 Yuki Matsuda,1 Kiyoshi Fujita,2,3 Nakao Iwata1 1Department of Psychiatry, Fujita Health University School of Medicine, Toyoake, Aichi, Japan; 2Department of Psychiatry, Okehazama Hospital, Toyoake, Aichi, Japan; 3The Neuroscience Research Center, Toyoake, Aichi, Japan Background: Blonanserin is a second-generation antipsychotic used for the treatment of schizophrenia in Japan and Korea. The present study aimed to examine early prediction of blonanserin in patients with schizophrenia. Methods: An 8-week, prospective, single-arm, flexible-dose clinical trial of blonanserin in patients with schizophrenia was conducted under real-world conditions. The inclusion criteria were antipsychotic naïve, and first-episode schizophrenia patients or schizophrenia patients with no consumption of any antipsychotic medication for more than 4 weeks before enrollment in this study. The positive predictive value, negative predictive value, sensitivity, specificity, and predictive power were calculated for the response status at week 4 to predict the subsequent response at week 8.Results: Thirty-seven patients were recruited (56.8% of them had first-episode schizophrenia, and 28 (75.7% completed the trial. At week 8, blonanserin was associated with a significant improvement in the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS total score (P<0.0001 and in positive (P<0.0001, negative (P<0.0001, and general subscale scores (P<0.0001. In terms of percentage improvement of PANSS total scores from baseline to week 8, 64.9% of patients showed a ≥20% reduction in the PANSS total score and 48.6% showed a ≥30% reduction. However, 8.1% of patients experienced at least one adverse event. Using the 20% reduction in the PANSS total score at week 4 as a definition of an early response, the negative predictive values for later responses (ie, reductions of ≥30 and ≥40 in the PANSS total scores were 88.9% and 94.1%, respectively. The specificities were 80.0% and

  11. Data Assimilation and Uncertainties in Early Solar Cycle Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitiashvili, Irina

    2017-08-01

    Stochastic nature of solar activity variations together with our limited knowledge of the dynamo mechanism and subsurface dynamics causes uncertainty in predictions of the solar cycle. For improving the physics-based predictions we can take advantage of the mathematical data assimilation approach that allows us to take into account both, observational errors and model uncertainties, and provide estimates of the next solar cycle along with prediction uncertainties. In this study we use the Parker's migratory dynamo model together with the equation of magnetic helicity balance, which reproduces main properties of the sunspot cycles and allow us to minimize discrepancies between the observed global activity variations and the model solution. The test simulation runs show that a reliable prediction can be obtained for two phases of preceding solar cycle: 1) if the polar field reversals shortly after the solar maxima (strong toroidal field and weak poloidal field), and 2) during the solar minima (strongest poloidal and weak toroidal fields). The early estimate of Cycle 25 obtained by this method shows that this cycle will start in 2019 - 2020, reach the maximum in 2023 - 2024, and that the mean sunspot number at the maximum will be about 90 (for the v2.0 sunspot number series).

  12. Specific Dysphoric Symptoms Are Predicted by Early Maladaptive Schemas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberta Trincas

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Early maladaptive schemas (EMSs are cognitive patterns resulting from unmet core emotional needs in childhood that have been linked to the development of psychopathology. As depression is a multifaceted phenomenon, we hypothesized that specific dysphoric symptoms would be predicted by different EMSs. Four hundred and fifty-six participants completed a measure of EMSs (Young Schema Questionnaire and reported on the severity of the symptoms of criterion A for major depression in DSM-IV during the occurrence of a dysphoric episode in the previous 12 months. A series of stepwise multiple regression analyses were performed to investigate the predictive power of the EMSs for the severity of each specific depressive symptom. When controlling for gender and current levels of depression, specific symptoms were predicted by different EMSs: sadness by Negativity/Pessimism; anhedonia by Failure; self-harm by Emotional Deprivation and Vulnerability to Harm or Illness; worthlessness by Failure and Negativity/Pessimism; psychomotor retardation/restlessness by Vulnerability to Harm or Illness and Entitlement/Grandiosity; and poor concentration by Insufficient Self-Control/Self-Discipline. The more physical symptoms of fatigue, insomnia/hypersomnia, and appetite loss/appetite gain were not predicted by any of the EMSs. Although the cross-sectional design of the study does not allow for conclusions about the direction of effects, results suggest that depression is not a unitary phenomenon and provide a possible explanation for previous inconsistent findings.

  13. Specific Dysphoric Symptoms Are Predicted by Early Maladaptive Schemas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couyoumdjian, Alessandro; Tenore, Katia; Spitoni, Grazia; Mancini, Francesco

    2014-01-01

    Early maladaptive schemas (EMSs) are cognitive patterns resulting from unmet core emotional needs in childhood that have been linked to the development of psychopathology. As depression is a multifaceted phenomenon, we hypothesized that specific dysphoric symptoms would be predicted by different EMSs. Four hundred and fifty-six participants completed a measure of EMSs (Young Schema Questionnaire) and reported on the severity of the symptoms of criterion A for major depression in DSM-IV during the occurrence of a dysphoric episode in the previous 12 months. A series of stepwise multiple regression analyses were performed to investigate the predictive power of the EMSs for the severity of each specific depressive symptom. When controlling for gender and current levels of depression, specific symptoms were predicted by different EMSs: sadness by Negativity/Pessimism; anhedonia by Failure; self-harm by Emotional Deprivation and Vulnerability to Harm or Illness; worthlessness by Failure and Negativity/Pessimism; psychomotor retardation/restlessness by Vulnerability to Harm or Illness and Entitlement/Grandiosity; and poor concentration by Insufficient Self-Control/Self-Discipline. The more physical symptoms of fatigue, insomnia/hypersomnia, and appetite loss/appetite gain were not predicted by any of the EMSs. Although the cross-sectional design of the study does not allow for conclusions about the direction of effects, results suggest that depression is not a unitary phenomenon and provide a possible explanation for previous inconsistent findings. PMID:24511281

  14. Early postnatal testosterone predicts sex-related differences in early expressive vocabulary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kung, Karson T F; Browne, Wendy V; Constantinescu, Mihaela; Noorderhaven, Rebecca M; Hines, Melissa

    2016-06-01

    During the first few years of life, girls typically have a larger expressive vocabulary than boys. This sex difference is important since a small vocabulary may predict subsequent language difficulties, which are more prevalent in boys than girls. The masculinizing effects of early androgen exposure on neurobehavioral development are well-documented in nonhuman mammals. The present study conducted the first test of whether early postnatal testosterone concentrations influence sex differences in expressive vocabulary in toddlers. It was found that testosterone measured in saliva samples collected at 1-3 months of age, i.e., during the period called mini-puberty, negatively predicted parent-report expressive vocabulary size at 18-30 months of age in boys and in girls. Testosterone concentrations during mini-puberty also accounted for additional variance in expressive vocabulary after other predictors such as sex, child's age at vocabulary assessment, and paternal education, were taken into account. Furthermore, testosterone concentrations during mini-puberty mediated the sex difference in expressive vocabulary. These results suggest that testosterone during the early postnatal period contributes to early language development and neurobehavioral sexual differentiation in humans.

  15. Early Diagnostic and Predictive Value of Capillaroscopy in Systemic Sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cutolo, Maurizio; Pizzorni, Carmen; Sulli, Alberto; Smith, Vanessa

    2013-01-01

    Nailfold microvascular impairment represents an early feature of systemic sclerosis (SSc) and its progression through different patterns of capillary damage and their validated scoring, is evaluable by nailfold videocapillaroscopy (NVC) in a safe and reliable manner. The presence of specific morphological microvascular alterations at the NVC (i.e., presence of giant capillaries) is fundamental and mandatory for the early diagnosis of SSc, together with the presence of the Raynaud's phenomenon. Furthermore, a recent longitudinal study showed a dynamic transition of microvascular damage through different NVC patterns of microangiopathy in almost 50% of SSc patients and clinical symptoms progressed in accordance with the NVC morphologic changes in 60% of the SSc patients. A pilot study was the first demonstrating an association between baseline NVC patterns and future severe, peripheral vascular and lung involvement with stronger odds according to worsening scleroderma patterns. Prognostic indexes for digital trophic lesions, especially for daily use in SSc clinics and simply limited to the mean score of capillary loss are now validated. Very recently, it has been described that efficacious potentially disease modifying therapies in SSc may interfere with progression of nailfold microvascular damage, as assessed by NVC, over long term at least in presence of digital ulcers. NVC is a safe and reliable tool for the early diagnosis of SSc and the different NVC scleroderma patterns have a predictive value for the clinical complications of the disease.

  16. Preschool executive functioning abilities predict early mathematics achievement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Caron A C; Pritchard, Verena E; Woodward, Lianne J

    2010-09-01

    Impairments in executive function have been documented in school-age children with mathematical learning difficulties. However, the utility and specificity of preschool executive function abilities in predicting later mathematical achievement are poorly understood. This study examined linkages between children's developing executive function abilities at age 4 and children's subsequent achievement in mathematics at age 6, 1 year after school entry. The study sample consisted of a regionally representative cohort of 104 children followed prospectively from ages 2 to 6 years. At age 4, children completed a battery of executive function tasks that assessed planning, set shifting, and inhibitory control. Teachers completed the preschool version of the Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Function. Clinical and classroom measures of children's mathematical achievement were collected at age 6. Results showed that children's performance on set shifting, inhibitory control, and general executive behavior measures during the preschool period accounted for substantial variability in children's early mathematical achievement at school. These associations persisted even after individual differences in general cognitive ability and reading achievement were taken into account. Findings suggest that early measures of executive function may be useful in identifying children who may experience difficulties learning mathematical skills and concepts. They also suggest that the scaffolding of these executive skills could potentially be a useful additional component in early mathematics education.

  17. Serum ferritin predicts early mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maiwall, Rakhi; Kumar, Suman; Chaudhary, A K; Maras, Jaswinder; Wani, Zeeshan; Kumar, Chandan; Rastogi, A; Bihari, C; Vashisht, Chitranshu; Sarin, S K

    2014-07-01

    Serum ferritin is a known marker of hepatic necro-inflammation and has been studied to predict 1 year mortality and post-transplant survival in decompensated cirrhotics. However, there are no studies evaluating ferritin as a predictor of early mortality. We investigated whether serum ferritin levels could predict 15 day and 30 day mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. 318 patients with decompensated cirrhosis were included. Patients of decompensated cirrhosis [257 males, mean age of 51 [±13]years, were followed for a median of 31 days. Serum ferritin levels were significantly different between survivors and non-survivors [pserum sodium [pSerum ferritin, etiology, MELD, HE, CTP score, sodium, TLC, and ACLF grades were significant predictors of mortality on univariate analysis. Ferritin [p=0.04, HR 1.66 95% CI (1.02-2.73)] was a significant predictor of early mortality on multivariate analysis along with HE [p=0.006, HR 3.47 95% CI (2.13-8.41)] (Model 1), TLC [p=0.02, HR 1.81 95% CI (1.06-3.07)] (Model 2), ACLF grades [p=0.018, HR 2.013,95% CI (1.126-3.60)], and CTP score [pSerum ferritin levels correlate with severity of hepatic decompensation and are associated with early liver related death independent of the MELD score in hospitalized patients with decompensated cirrhosis. This could also have a potential therapeutic implication. Copyright © 2014 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Investigation on relationship between epicentral distance and growth curve of initial P-wave propagating in local heterogeneous media for earthquake early warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okamoto, Kyosuke; Tsuno, Seiji

    2015-10-01

    In the earthquake early warning (EEW) system, the epicenter location and magnitude of earthquakes are estimated using the amplitude growth rate of initial P-waves. It has been empirically pointed out that the growth rate becomes smaller as epicentral distance becomes far regardless of the magnitude of earthquakes. So, the epicentral distance can be estimated from the growth rate using this empirical relationship. However, the growth rates calculated from different earthquakes at the same epicentral distance mark considerably different values from each other. Sometimes the growth rates of earthquakes having the same epicentral distance vary by 104 times. Qualitatively, it has been considered that the gap in the growth rates is due to differences in the local heterogeneities that the P-waves propagate through. In this study, we demonstrate theoretically how local heterogeneities in the subsurface disturb the relationship between the growth rate and the epicentral distance. Firstly, we calculate seismic scattered waves in a heterogeneous medium. First-ordered PP, PS, SP, and SS scatterings are considered. The correlation distance of the heterogeneities and fractional fluctuation of elastic parameters control the heterogeneous conditions for the calculation. From the synthesized waves, the growth rate of the initial P-wave is obtained. As a result, we find that a parameter (in this study, correlation distance) controlling heterogeneities plays a key role in the magnitude of the fluctuation of the growth rate. Then, we calculate the regional correlation distances in Japan that can account for the fluctuation of the growth rate of real earthquakes from 1997 to 2011 observed by K-NET and KiK-net. As a result, the spatial distribution of the correlation distance shows locality. So, it is revealed that the growth rates fluctuate according to the locality. When this local fluctuation is taken into account, the accuracy of the estimation of epicentral distances from initial P

  19. Operational earthquake forecasting can enhance earthquake preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, T.H.; Marzocchi, W.; Michael, A.J.; Gerstenberger, M.C.

    2014-01-01

    We cannot yet predict large earthquakes in the short term with much reliability and skill, but the strong clustering exhibited in seismic sequences tells us that earthquake probabilities are not constant in time; they generally rise and fall over periods of days to years in correlation with nearby seismic activity. Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is the dissemination of authoritative information about these time‐dependent probabilities to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. The goal of OEF is to inform the decisions that people and organizations must continually make to mitigate seismic risk and prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes on time scales from days to decades. To fulfill this role, OEF must provide a complete description of the seismic hazard—ground‐motion exceedance probabilities as well as short‐term rupture probabilities—in concert with the long‐term forecasts of probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis (PSHA).

  20. Predictability and Prediction of Early- and Peak-summer East Asian rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yim, S. Y.; Wang, B.; Xing, W.; Kim, H. K.

    2015-12-01

    East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall has a profound influence on the lives of billions of people. The seasonal prediction of the EASM rainfall, however, has long been an outstanding challenge in climate science. Traditional seasonal forecast of EASM deals with JJA mean rainfall anomalies, which may not be the best strategy because the EASM rainy season is typically from May to August and pronounced differences exist between early summer (May-June, MJ) and peak summer (July-August, JA): both climatological mean states and the principal modes of interannual variability exhibit distinct spatial and temporal structures. The present study explores the sources and limit of the predictability of the early and peak summer rainfall over the East Asian (EA) region. Since the climate models' seasonal forecasts have rather limited skills, it is important to find the causes of the low skills, to improve seasonal prediction, and to better estimate the predictability of EASM rainfall. We address this issue by applying predictable mode analysis method. Four empirical modes of variability for peak summer rainfall are identified: (a) an equatorial western Pacific-EA teleconnection mode, (b) a western Pacific subtropical high-dipole feedback mode, (c) a central Pacific-ENSO mode, and (d) a Eurasian wave train mode. These modes are named according to the major sources of predictability. Based on the understanding of predictability sources for each mode, a suite of physical-empirical (P-E) models is established to predict the four leading principal components (PCs). All four modes can be predicted with significant cross-validated correlation skills(0.59-0.65). Using the predicted PCs and the corresponding observed spatial patterns, a 35-year cross-validated hindcast over the EA yields a domain-averaged TCC skill is 0.37, which is higher than the MME hind cast skill (0.13). The estimated potential attainable pattern correlation coefficient skill averaged over the entire domain is

  1. Predictive factors for early aspiration in liver abscess

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Rustam Khan; Saeed Hamid; Shahab Abid; Wasim Jafri; Zaigham Abbas; Mohammed Islam; Hasnain Shah; Shaalan Beg

    2008-01-01

    AIM: To determine the predictive factors for early aspiration in liver abscess.METHODS: A retrospective analysis of all patients with liver abscess from 1995 to 2004 was performed. Abscess was diagnosed as amebic in 661 (68%) patients, pyogenic in 200 (21%), indeterminate in 73 (8%) and mixed in 32 (3%). Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to determine predictive factors for aspiration of liver abscess.RESULTS: A total of 966 patients, 738 (76%) male, mean age 43 ± 17 years, were evaluated: 540 patients responded to medical therapy while adjunctive percutaneous aspiration was performed in 426 patients. Predictive factors for aspiration of liver abscess were: age ≥ 55 years, size of abscess ≥ 5 cm, involvement of both lobes of the liver and duration of symptoms ≥ 7 d. Hospital stay in the aspiration group was relatively longer than in the non aspiration group. Twelve patients died in the aspiration group and this mortality was not statistically significant when compared to the non aspiration group.CONCLUSION: Patients with advanced age, abscess size > 5 cm, both lobes of the liver involvement and duration of symptoms > 7 d were likely to undergo aspiration of the liver abscess, regardless of etiology.

  2. Simple Mathematical Models Do Not Accurately Predict Early SIV Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cecilia Noecker

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Upon infection of a new host, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV replicates in the mucosal tissues and is generally undetectable in circulation for 1–2 weeks post-infection. Several interventions against HIV including vaccines and antiretroviral prophylaxis target virus replication at this earliest stage of infection. Mathematical models have been used to understand how HIV spreads from mucosal tissues systemically and what impact vaccination and/or antiretroviral prophylaxis has on viral eradication. Because predictions of such models have been rarely compared to experimental data, it remains unclear which processes included in these models are critical for predicting early HIV dynamics. Here we modified the “standard” mathematical model of HIV infection to include two populations of infected cells: cells that are actively producing the virus and cells that are transitioning into virus production mode. We evaluated the effects of several poorly known parameters on infection outcomes in this model and compared model predictions to experimental data on infection of non-human primates with variable doses of simian immunodifficiency virus (SIV. First, we found that the mode of virus production by infected cells (budding vs. bursting has a minimal impact on the early virus dynamics for a wide range of model parameters, as long as the parameters are constrained to provide the observed rate of SIV load increase in the blood of infected animals. Interestingly and in contrast with previous results, we found that the bursting mode of virus production generally results in a higher probability of viral extinction than the budding mode of virus production. Second, this mathematical model was not able to accurately describe the change in experimentally determined probability of host infection with increasing viral doses. Third and finally, the model was also unable to accurately explain the decline in the time to virus detection with increasing viral

  3. 全球地震早期预警研究综述%An Overview of Earthquake Early Warning Researche around the World

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵冰; 刘希强

    2011-01-01

    In recent years, the "earthquake early warning" (EEW) technology has been developed rapidly around the world, some cases show that EEW has successfully provided seismic early warning information and got earthquake disaster mitigation effectiveness. In this paper, the approaches of the EEW, including front wave detection, using the P wave, onsite warning and regional warning are introduced, and the applications of EEW in Mexico, Japan, Turkey, China Taiwan, Romania and other countries and region areas are introduced also. Some problems and challenge in the earthquake early warning, as well as its perspective are analyzed.%近年来地震预警技术在国际上得到迅速的发展,并有成功预警且收到减灾实效的先例.本文系统介绍了地震早期预警的方法,包括波前探测、P波应用、现地预警和区域预警;介绍了地震早期预警系统在墨西哥、日本、土耳其、中国台湾和罗马尼亚等国家和地区的应用情况.还对地震预警中目前存在的问题和挑战以及远景进行了分析.

  4. Coseismic and early postseismic deformation due to the 25 April 2015, Mw 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake from InSAR and GPS measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sreejith, K. M.; Sunil, P. S.; Agrawal, Ritesh; Saji, Ajish P.; Ramesh, D. S.; Rajawat, A. S.

    2016-04-01

    Analysis of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and Global Positioning System (GPS) data reveals coseismic and early postseismic (4-88 days) surface displacements associated with the 25 April 2015, Mw 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake. The pattern of early postseismic surface uplift and subsidence is found to be opposite to that of the coseismic motion. InSAR and GPS data were jointly inverted for coseismic and postseismic slip on the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). We consider a complex ramp-flat-ramp-flat subsurface structure of the MHT with four connected fault planes dipping toward north from the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT). The inverted coseismic slip distribution follows an elliptical pattern, extending east-southeastward from the hypocenter with maximum amplitude of 5.7 m above the upper edge of the midcrustal ramp. We infer early postseismic afterslip (4-16 days) of 0.2-0.47 m toward downdip of the coseismic slip asperity and another patch with 0.1-0.2 m slip toward east. The shallow portion of the MHT toward south is found to have remained unruptured during the earthquake, nor did it slip aseismically after the earthquake, suggesting possibility of large events in the future.

  5. Comparison of ground motions estimated from prediction equations and from observed damage during the M = 4.6 1983 Liège earthquake (Belgium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. García Moreno

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available On 8 November 1983 an earthquake of magnitude 4.6 damaged more than 16 000 buildings in the region of Liège (Belgium. The extraordinary damage produced by this earthquake, considering its moderate magnitude, is extremely well documented, giving the opportunity to compare the consequences of a recent moderate earthquake in a typical old city of Western Europe with scenarios obtained by combining strong ground motions and vulnerability modelling. The present study compares 0.3 s spectral accelerations estimated from ground motion prediction equations typically used in Western Europe with those obtained locally by applying the statistical distribution of damaged masonry buildings to two fragility curves, one derived from the HAZUS programme of FEMA (FEMA, 1999 and another developed for high-vulnerability buildings by Lang and Bachmann (2004, and to a method proposed by Faccioli et al. (1999 relating the seismic vulnerability of buildings to the damage and ground motions. The results of this comparison reveal good agreement between maxima spectral accelerations calculated from these vulnerability and fragility curves and those predicted from attenuation law equations, suggesting peak ground accelerations for the epicentral area of the 1983 earthquake of 0.13–0.20 g (g: gravitational acceleration.

  6. Early warning score predicts acute mortality in stroke patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liljehult, J; Christensen, T

    2016-01-01

    was to investigate whether the aggregate weighted track and trigger system early warning score (EWS) can be used as a simple observational tool to identify patients at risk and predict mortality in a population of patients with acute stroke. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients admitted with acute stroke...... at the Copenhagen University Hospital, Nordsjaellands Hospital, Denmark, from May to September 2012 were enrolled in a retrospective cohort study (n = 274). Vital signs were measured immediately after admission and consistently during the hospitalization period. Based on the vital signs, a single composite EWS...... the EWS at admission (AUROC 0.856; 95% CI 0.760-0.951; P-value score is a simple and valid...

  7. Predictive testing of early CIN behaviour by molecular biomarkers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baak, Jan P A; Kruse, Arnold-Jan; Janssen, Emiel; van Diermen, Bianca

    2005-01-01

    Each year, 330,000 new Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasias(CIN) occur in the European Union (EU) of which 120,000 are early CIN where grade (1, 2) indicates the progression-risk to CIN-3 and therefore determines the treatment choice. However, the Positive Predictive Value (PPV) of CIN grade to predict progression is low (10% and 20% for CIN-1 and -2 respectively, 16% on average) resulting in an enormous number of over-treatments indicating worrisome grade reproducibility.Certain molecular biomarkers such as Ki-67 have a higher PPV (30%, an improvement of 14%), which in Europe alone could improve treatment for many thousands of women per year with considerable cost reduction for the health care system. The quantitative Ki-67 prognostic model has been validated in independent retrospective and prospective studies from different laboratories. Moreover, the PPV of Ki-67 alone can be improved by additional molecular biomarkers (retinoblastoma protein = Rb, cytokeratins= CK-14/-13). Combined Ki67-Rb allows a 2-tiered progression-risk subgroup assignment as very low ( approximately 0% progression, 71% of all CIN-I/II patients)and high risk (48% progression risk, incidence 32%), leaving a small (7% of all) prognostically undetermined group (17% progression). Additional CK-14 and -13 analysis can sub-classify the high-risk in an intermediate and very high risk subgroup(with 40% and 100% progression risks respectively).Thus, molecular biomarkers are potentially important determinators of early CIN lesion behaviour. Important factors for widespread acceptance of molecular biomarkers are (1) market penetration by user-friendly equipment, (2) (inter)national keeping of GLP conditions (reproducibility, independent validation), requiring customer-driven industrial efforts,governmental measures, and additional PPV improvement to further reduce over-treatment.

  8. Predicting Early Maladaptive Schemas Using Baumrind’s Parenting Styles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esmali Kooraneh, Ahmad; Amirsardari, Leili

    2015-01-01

    Background: Families play an essential role in maintaining children’s mental, social, and physical health. The family provides the first and the most important social context for human development. Objectives: The present study aimed to predict early maladaptive schemas using Baumrind’s parenting styles (root development). Patients and Methods: A total of 357 undergraduate students of Islamic Azad University, Urmia Branch, Iran, were selected through random cluster sampling during 2013 and 2014. The students were assessed using the Schema Questionnaire-Short Form (SQ-SF) and the Baumrind’s parenting styles inventories. Results: The result of regression analysis showed that Baumrind’s parenting styles are significant predictors of early maladaptive schemas (P < 0.001). Conclusions: The authoritative parenting style has some features such as showing high levels of warmth or encouraging kids to express their own possibly divergent opinions. The authoritarian parenting style, however, possesses traits such as heartlessness, impassiveness, strictness, and lack of attention to the children’s developmental needs, which is not acceptable. PMID:26288648

  9. We Need More Focus On Pre-Disaster Preparedness: Early Lessons Learned From Recent Earthquakes in Northwest of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdolreza Shaghaghi

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Dear Editor-in-ChiefTwo strong earthquakes with the magnitude of 6.4 and 6.3 at a depth of 9.9 km that rattled Iran’s northwest region within 60 km of Tabriz, the capital city of East Azerbaijan province on August 11, 2012 caused extensive damage in about 1000 villages, killed at least 258 and injured 1380 people. The quakes most severely affected villages close to three impacted towns in the disaster area; Varzegan, Ahar and Heris. Some of the villages were hit are in remote areas with limited access to transport routes.Within early hours aftermath of the twin devastating incidents ordinary people and those who had relatives in the affected area rushed towards the region to salvage victims mainly by their own cars. Independent groups such as small units from armed forces were also sent to the region to support rescue operation. Some of the survivors meanwhile, tried to transfer severely injured survivors to nearby hospitals and even to the central hospital in Tabriz using public transportation facilities e.g. taxis, vans or any vehicle available at the time. All these unplanned efforts created traffic jams on the roads leading to the disaster area and delayed rescue operation by trained staff.Now after the earthquakes that rumbled through the disaster area, about 36,000 quake-stricken people were given shelter and are being provided with their basic needs in makeshift camps. Humanitarian aids are reaching affected zone from all over the country and internationally but there are inadequacies in proper distribution of food stuff and equipments among the survivors. Piles of water bottles in front of tents which left in the heat under the sunshine, clothes and canned foods which were distributed by volunteers and are more than current needs of the victims are observable in the disaster area. This is while, lack of sufficient supply of drinking water, canned foods and portable washrooms were reported by the authorities in the first days after the

  10. Early environment and neurobehavioral development predict adult temperament clusters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eliza Congdon

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Investigation of the environmental influences on human behavioral phenotypes is important for our understanding of the causation of psychiatric disorders. However, there are complexities associated with the assessment of environmental influences on behavior. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We conducted a series of analyses using a prospective, longitudinal study of a nationally representative birth cohort from Finland (the Northern Finland 1966 Birth Cohort. Participants included a total of 3,761 male and female cohort members who were living in Finland at the age of 16 years and who had complete temperament scores. Our initial analyses (Wessman et al., in press provide evidence in support of four stable and robust temperament clusters. Using these temperament clusters, as well as independent temperament dimensions for comparison, we conducted a data-driven analysis to assess the influence of a broad set of life course measures, assessed pre-natally, in infancy, and during adolescence, on adult temperament. RESULTS: Measures of early environment, neurobehavioral development, and adolescent behavior significantly predict adult temperament, classified by both cluster membership and temperament dimensions. Specifically, our results suggest that a relatively consistent set of life course measures are associated with adult temperament profiles, including maternal education, characteristics of the family's location and residence, adolescent academic performance, and adolescent smoking. CONCLUSIONS: Our finding that a consistent set of life course measures predict temperament clusters indicate that these clusters represent distinct developmental temperament trajectories and that information about a subset of life course measures has implications for adult health outcomes.

  11. Predicted liquefaction in the greater Oakland area and northern Santa Clara Valley during a repeat of the 1868 Hayward Fault (M6.7-7.0) earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holzer, Thomas L.; Noce, Thomas E.; Bennett, Michael J.

    2010-01-01

    Probabilities of surface manifestations of liquefaction due to a repeat of the 1868 (M6.7-7.0) earthquake on the southern segment of the Hayward Fault were calculated for two areas along the margin of San Francisco Bay, California: greater Oakland and the northern Santa Clara Valley. Liquefaction is predicted to be more common in the greater Oakland area than in the northern Santa Clara Valley owing to the presence of 57 km2 of susceptible sandy artificial fill. Most of the fills were placed into San Francisco Bay during the first half of the 20th century to build military bases, port facilities, and shoreline communities like Alameda and Bay Farm Island. Probabilities of liquefaction in the area underlain by this sandy artificial fill range from 0.2 to ~0.5 for a M7.0 earthquake, and decrease to 0.1 to ~0.4 for a M6.7 earthquake. In the greater Oakland area, liquefaction probabilities generally are less than 0.05 for Holocene alluvial fan deposits, which underlie most of the remaining flat-lying urban area. In the northern Santa Clara Valley for a M7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault and an assumed water-table depth of 1.5 m (the historically shallowest water level), liquefaction probabilities range from 0.1 to 0.2 along Coyote and Guadalupe Creeks, but are less than 0.05 elsewhere. For a M6.7 earthquake, probabilities are greater than 0.1 along Coyote Creek but decrease along Guadalupe Creek to less than 0.1. Areas with high probabilities in the Santa Clara Valley are underlain by young Holocene levee deposits along major drainages where liquefaction and lateral spreading occurred during large earthquakes in 1868 and 1906.

  12. Can mine tremors be predicted? Observational studies of earthquake nucleation, triggering and rupture in South African mines

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Durrheim, RJ

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Mining-induced earthquakes pose a risk to workers in deep mines, while natural earthquakes pose a risk to people living close to plate boundaries and even in stable continental regions. A five-year ca. US$3 million Japan-SA collaborative project...

  13. Does Physical Abuse in Early Childhood Predict Substance Use in Adolescence and Early Adulthood?

    OpenAIRE

    Lansford, Jennifer E.; Dodge, Kenneth A.; Pettit, Gregory S.; BATES, JOHN E.

    2010-01-01

    Prospective longitudinal data from 535 families were used to examine parents’ reports of child physical abuse in the first five years of life as a predictor of substance use at ages 12, 16, and 24. Path analyses revealed that physical abuse in the first five years of life predicted subsequent substance use for females but not males. We found a direct effect of early physical abuse on girls’ substance use at age 12 and indirect effects on substance use at age 16 and age 24 through substance us...

  14. Expert system supporting an early prediction of the bronchopulmonary dysplasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochab, Marcin; Wajs, Wiesław

    2016-02-01

    This work presents a decision support system which uses machine learning to support early prediction of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) for extremely premature infants after their first week of life. For that purpose a knowledge database was created based on the historical data gathered including data on 109 patients with birth weight less than or equal to 1500g. The core of the database consists of support vector machine and logit regression classification results calculated specifically for that system, and obtained by considering 2(14) different combinations of 14 risk factors. Based on the results obtained and user demands, the system recommends the best methods and the most suitable parameter subset among those currently available to the user. The program is also able to estimate the accuracy, sensitivity and specificity together with their standard deviations. The user is also given information on which additional parameter it is worth adding to his measurement system most and what an increase in prediction efficiency it is expected to trigger. The BPD can be predicted by the system with the accuracy reaching up to 83.25% in the best-case scenario, i.e. higher than for most of the models presented in the literature. This work presents a set of examples illustrating the difficulties in obtaining one single model that can be widely used, and thus explaining why an expert system approach is much more useful in day-to-day clinical practice. In addition, the work discusses the significance of the parameters used and the impact of a chosen method on the sensitivity and specificity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Advanced real time monitoring system and simulation researches for Earthquakes and Tsunamis in Japan Part2-Towards disaster mitigation on Earthquakes and Tsunamis-

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneda, Y.; Takahashi, N.; Hori, T.; Kawaguchi, K.; Araki, E.; Matsumoto, H.; Nakamura, T.; Kamiya, S.; Ariyoshi, K.; Hyodo, M.; Nakata, R.; Nakano, M.; Choi, J. K.; Nishida, S.; Aoi, S.

    2016-12-01

    The Ocean floor network is very important and significant for EEW and prediction research of mega thrust earthquakes. Based on lessons learned from 2004 Sumatra Earthquake/Tsunamis and 2011 East Japan Earthquake/Tsunami, we recognized the importance of real time monitoring of these natural hazards. As real time monitoring system, DONET1, 2 (Dense Ocean floor Network for Earthquakes and Tsunamis) were deployed around the Nankai trough Southwestern Japan for the understanding of mega thrust earthquake and EEW. Based on simulation researches, DONET1 and DONET2 with multi kinds of sensors such as broadband seismometers and precise pressure gauges will be expected to monitor slow events such as low frequency tremors and slow earthquakes for the estimation of seismic stage which is the inter-seismic or pre-seismic stage. In advanced simulation researches such as the recurrence cycle of mega thrust earthquakes, the data assimilation is very powerful tool to improve the reliability. Finally, real time monitoring data and advanced simulations will be integrated for precise Earthquake /Tsunami Early Warning and Estimation of damages in future compound disasters on Earthquakes and Tsunamis. And the information of crustal activity using Ocean floor network and land seismic network and GNSS is indispensable for outreaches/educations of disaster mitigation. We will introduce the present progress of advanced researches and future scope for disaster mitigation researches on earthquakes and Tsunamis.

  16. After the damages: Lessons learned from recent earthquakes for ground-motion prediction and seismic hazard assessment (C.F. Gauss Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotton, Fabrice

    2017-04-01

    Recent damaging earthquakes (e.g. Japan 2011, Nepal 2014, Italy 2016) and associated ground-shaking (ground-motion) records challenge the engineering models used to quantify seismic hazard. The goal of this presentation is to present the lessons learned from these recent events and discuss their implications for ground-motion prediction and probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. The following points will be particularly addressed: 1) Recent observations clearly illustrate the dependency of ground-shaking on earthquake source related factors (e.g. fault properties and geometry, earthquake depth, directivity). The weaknesses of classical models and the impact of these factors on hazard evaluation will be analysed and quantified. 2) These observations also show that events of similar magnitude and style of faulting are producing ground-motions which are highly variable. We will analyse this variability and show that the exponential growth of recorded data give a unique opportunity to quantify regional or between-events shaking variations. Indeed, most seismic-hazard evaluations do not consider the regional specificities of earthquake or wave-propagation properties. There is little guidance in the literature on how this should be done and we will show that this challenge is interdisciplinary, as structural geology, neotectonic and tomographic images can provide key understanding of these regional variations. 3) One of the key lessons of recent earthquakes is that extreme hazard scenarios and ground-shaking are difficult to predict. In other words, we need to mobilize "scientific imagination" and define new strategies based on the latest research results to capture epistemic uncertainties and integrate them in engineering seismology projects. We will discuss these strategies and show an example of their implementation to develop new seismic hazard maps of Europe (Share and Sera FP7 projects) and Germany.

  17. Robust Early Pregnancy Prediction of Later Preeclampsia Using Metabolomic Biomarkers.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Kenny, Louise C

    2010-09-13

    Preeclampsia is a pregnancy-specific syndrome that causes substantial maternal and fetal morbidity and mortality. The etiology is incompletely understood, and there is no clinically useful screening test. Current metabolomic technologies have allowed the establishment of metabolic signatures of preeclampsia in early pregnancy. Here, a 2-phase discovery\\/validation metabolic profiling study was performed. In the discovery phase, a nested case-control study was designed, using samples obtained at 15±1 weeks\\' gestation from 60 women who subsequently developed preeclampsia and 60 controls taking part in the prospective Screening for Pregnancy Endpoints cohort study. Controls were proportionally population matched for age, ethnicity, and body mass index at booking. Plasma samples were analyzed using ultra performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. A multivariate predictive model combining 14 metabolites gave an odds ratio for developing preeclampsia of 36 (95% CI: 12 to 108), with an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.94. These findings were then validated using an independent case-control study on plasma obtained at 15±1 weeks from 39 women who subsequently developed preeclampsia and 40 similarly matched controls from a participating center in a different country. The same 14 metabolites produced an odds ratio of 23 (95% CI: 7 to 73) with an area under receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.92. The finding of a consistent discriminatory metabolite signature in early pregnancy plasma preceding the onset of preeclampsia offers insight into disease pathogenesis and offers the tantalizing promise of a robust presymptomatic screening test.

  18. Robust early pregnancy prediction of later preeclampsia using metabolomic biomarkers.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Kenny, Louise C

    2012-01-31

    Preeclampsia is a pregnancy-specific syndrome that causes substantial maternal and fetal morbidity and mortality. The etiology is incompletely understood, and there is no clinically useful screening test. Current metabolomic technologies have allowed the establishment of metabolic signatures of preeclampsia in early pregnancy. Here, a 2-phase discovery\\/validation metabolic profiling study was performed. In the discovery phase, a nested case-control study was designed, using samples obtained at 15+\\/-1 weeks\\' gestation from 60 women who subsequently developed preeclampsia and 60 controls taking part in the prospective Screening for Pregnancy Endpoints cohort study. Controls were proportionally population matched for age, ethnicity, and body mass index at booking. Plasma samples were analyzed using ultra performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. A multivariate predictive model combining 14 metabolites gave an odds ratio for developing preeclampsia of 36 (95% CI: 12 to 108), with an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.94. These findings were then validated using an independent case-control study on plasma obtained at 15+\\/-1 weeks from 39 women who subsequently developed preeclampsia and 40 similarly matched controls from a participating center in a different country. The same 14 metabolites produced an odds ratio of 23 (95% CI: 7 to 73) with an area under receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.92. The finding of a consistent discriminatory metabolite signature in early pregnancy plasma preceding the onset of preeclampsia offers insight into disease pathogenesis and offers the tantalizing promise of a robust presymptomatic screening test.

  19. Design of the health examination survey on early childhood physical growth in the Great East Japan Earthquake affected areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsubara, Hiroko; Ishikuro, Mami; Kikuya, Masahiro; Chida, Shoichi; Hosoya, Mitsuaki; Ono, Atsushi; Kato, Noriko; Yokoya, Susumu; Tanaka, Toshiaki; Isojima, Tsuyoshi; Yamagata, Zentaro; Tanaka, Soichiro; Kuriyama, Shinichi; Kure, Shigeo

    2017-03-01

    To investigate the impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake on preschool children's physical growth in the disaster-affected areas, the three medical universities in Iwate, Miyagi, and Fukushima Prefectures conducted a health examination survey on early childhood physical growth. The survey was conducted over a 3-year period to acquire data on children who were born in different years. Our targets were as follows: 1) children who were born between March 1, 2007 and August 31, 2007 and experienced the disaster at 43-48 months of age, 2) children who were born between March 1, 2009 and August 31, 2009 and experienced the disaster at 19-24 months of age, and 3) children who were born between June 1, 2010 and April 30, 2011 and were under 10 months of age or not born yet when the disaster occurred. We collected their health examination data from local governments in Iwate, Miyagi, and Fukushima Prefectures. We also collected data from Aomori, Akita, and Yamagata Prefectures to use as a control group. The survey items included birth information, anthropometric measurements, and methods of nutrition during infancy. Eighty municipalities from Iwate, Miyagi, and Fukushima Prefectures and 21 from the control prefectures participated in the survey. As a result, we established three retrospective cohorts consisting of 13,886, 15,474, and 32,202 preschool children. The large datasets acquired for the present survey will provide valuable epidemiological evidence that should shed light on preschool children's physical growth in relation to the disaster. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Discussion of the design of satellite-laser measurement stations in the eastern Mediterranean under the geological aspect. Contribution to the earthquake prediction research by the Wegener Group and to NASA's Crustal Dynamics Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paluska, A.; Pavoni, N.

    1983-01-01

    Research conducted for determining the location of stations for measuring crustal dynamics and predicting earthquakes is discussed. Procedural aspects, the extraregional kinematic tendencies, and regional tectonic deformation mechanisms are described.

  1. Technical implementation plan for the ShakeAlert production system: an Earthquake Early Warning system for the West Coast of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Given, Douglas D.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Heaton, Thomas; Hauksson, Egill; Allen, Richard; Hellweg, Peggy; Vidale, John; Bodin, Paul

    2014-01-01

    Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems can provide as much as tens of seconds of warning to people and automated systems before strong shaking arrives. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners are developing such an EEW system, called ShakeAlert, for the West Coast of the United States. This document describes the technical implementation of that system, which leverages existing stations and infrastructure of the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) regional networks to achieve this new capability. While significant progress has been made in developing the ShakeAlert early warning system, improved robustness of each component of the system and additional testing and certification are needed for the system to be reliable enough to issue public alerts. Major components of the system include dense networks of ground motion sensors, telecommunications from those sensors to central processing systems, algorithms for event detection and alert creation, and distribution systems to alert users. Capital investment costs for a West Coast EEW system are projected to be $38.3M, with additional annual maintenance and operations totaling $16.1M—in addition to current ANSS expenditures for earthquake monitoring. An EEW system is complementary to, but does not replace, other strategies to mitigate earthquake losses. The system has limitations: false and missed alerts are possible, and the area very near to an earthquake epicenter may receive little or no warning. However, such an EEW system would save lives, reduce injuries and damage, and improve community resilience by reducing longer-term economic losses for both public and private entities.

  2. Technical implementation plan for the ShakeAlert production system: an Earthquake Early Warning system for the West Coast of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Given, Douglas D.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Heaton, Thomas; Hauksson, Egill; Allen, Richard; Hellweg, Peggy; Vidale, John; Bodin, Paul

    2014-01-01

    Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems can provide as much as tens of seconds of warning to people and automated systems before strong shaking arrives. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners are developing such an EEW system, called ShakeAlert, for the West Coast of the United States. This document describes the technical implementation of that system, which leverages existing stations and infrastructure of the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) regional networks to achieve this new capability. While significant progress has been made in developing the ShakeAlert early warning system, improved robustness of each component of the system and additional testing and certification are needed for the system to be reliable enough to issue public alerts. Major components of the system include dense networks of ground motion sensors, telecommunications from those sensors to central processing systems, algorithms for event detection and alert creation, and distribution systems to alert users. Capital investment costs for a West Coast EEW system are projected to be $38.3M, with additional annual maintenance and operations totaling $16.1M—in addition to current ANSS expenditures for earthquake monitoring. An EEW system is complementary to, but does not replace, other strategies to mitigate earthquake losses. The system has limitations: false and missed alerts are possible, and the area very near to an earthquake epicenter may receive little or no warning. However, such an EEW system would save lives, reduce injuries and damage, and improve community resilience by reducing longer-term economic losses for both public and private entities.

  3. [Early pregnancy risk: development and validation of a predictive instrument].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burrows, R; Rosales, M E; Díaz, M; Muzzo, S

    1994-06-01

    An early pregnancy risk scale, with scores ranging from 11 to 66 points from lower to higher risk, was constructed using variables associated with teenager's pregnancy. This scale was applied to 3000 female teenagers, coming from Metropolitan Santiago public schools. The sample was divided in three risk groups: group A (high risk) with scores equal or over 35 points, group B (low risk) with scores equal or below 20 points and group B (intermediate risk) with scores between 20.1 and 34.9 points. These girls were followed during 2 years. During this period, 84 girls became pregnant, 24 of 184 (13%) in group A, 60 of 2332 (2.6%) in group C and none of 307 in group B. There were 104 school desertions in group A and 37 in group B. To study associations and analyze risk, the sample was divided in two risk groups: high, with scores over 27 and low, with scores below 27. There was a high association between pregnancy risk score and the occurrence of pregnancy (RR 5.25 p school desertion (RR 3.32 p School desertion was predicted with a 74% sensitivity and 56% specificity. The importance variable weighing using multiple regression models, to improve the predictor's sensitivity and specificity, is discussed.

  4. Predictive algorithms for early detection of retinopathy of prematurity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piermarocchi, Stefano; Bini, Silvia; Martini, Ferdinando; Berton, Marianna; Lavini, Anna; Gusson, Elena; Marchini, Giorgio; Padovani, Ezio Maria; Macor, Sara; Pignatto, Silvia; Lanzetta, Paolo; Cattarossi, Luigi; Baraldi, Eugenio; Lago, Paola

    2017-03-01

    To evaluate sensitivity, specificity and the safest cut-offs of three predictive algorithms (WINROP, ROPScore and CHOP ROP) for retinopathy of prematurity (ROP). A retrospective study was conducted in three centres from 2012 to 2014; 445 preterms with gestational age (GA) ≤ 30 weeks and/or birthweight (BW) ≤ 1500 g, and additional unstable cases, were included. No-ROP, mild and type 1 ROP were categorized. The algorithms were analysed for infants with all parameters (GA, BW, weight gain, oxygen therapy, blood transfusion) needed for calculation (399 babies). Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) was identified in both eyes in 116 patients (26.1%), and 44 (9.9%) had type 1 ROP. Gestational age and BW were significantly lower in ROP group compared with no-ROP subjects (GA: 26.7 ± 2.2 and 30.2 ± 1.9, respectively, p algorithms are a reliable tool for early identification of infants requiring referral to an ophthalmologist, for reorganizing resources and reducing stressful procedures to preterm babies. © 2016 Acta Ophthalmologica Scandinavica Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. The GIS and analysis of earthquake damage distribution of the 1303 Hongtong M=8 earthquake

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高孟潭; 金学申; 安卫平; 吕晓健

    2004-01-01

    The geography information system of the 1303 Hongtong M=8 earthquake has been established. Using the spatial analysis function of GIS, the spatial distribution characteristics of damage and isoseismal of the earthquake are studied. By comparing with the standard earthquake intensity attenuation relationship, the abnormal damage distribution of the earthquake is found, so the relationship of the abnormal distribution with tectonics, site condition and basin are analyzed. In this paper, the influence on the ground motion generated by earthquake source and the underground structures near source also are studied. The influence on seismic zonation, anti-earthquake design, earthquake prediction and earthquake emergency responding produced by the abnormal density distribution are discussed.

  6. Systematic Detections of Early Aftershocks and Remotely Triggered Seismicity in China Following the 2015 Mw7.8 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, J.; Peng, Z.; Yao, D.; LI, L.; Meng, X.; Wang, B.; Wang, W.; Li, C.

    2015-12-01

    The 2015/04/25 Mw7.8 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake occurred beneath the central portion of the Himalayan Frontal Thrust Fault. The mainshock was followed by numerous aftershocks near its epicentral region, as well as many earthquakes at various distances in China. Small to moderate-size earthquakes in Chongqing (~2500 km) and around Fangshan Pluton near Beijing (~3500 km) coincided with the arrivals of surface wave train, suggesting that they were likely triggered by dynamic stresses from the passing surface waves. 3 hours later, a M5.8 normal-faulting earthquake in Southern Tibet. Because of their close distances (within two fault-rupture lengths), it is not clear whether the M5.8 Tibetan event is triggered by static or dynamic stresses. Here we conduct a systematic detection of microseismicity in Nepal and Southern Tibet around the Nepal mainshock. We use earthquakes listed in the Advance National Seismic Network (ANSS) and China Earthquake Network Center (CENC) catalogs as templates, and scan through continuous waveform data within 700 km of the Nepal mainshock to detect additional smaller events that were not listed in these catalogs. As was done before, we apply a 0.5 to 8 Hz band-pass filter to both the template and continuous waveform data, and detect events with mean cross-correlation (CC) values that are at least 12 times larger than the daily median absolute deviation (MAD) values. Overall we have detected 5 times more aftershocks, as well as more than 80 uncatalogued events in Southern Tibet near the epicentral region of the M5.8 event. We also compute the dynamic and static stress changes on the two nodal planes of the M5.8 event. While we cannot completely rule out the influence of static stress change (because the M5.8 event is in the positive Coulomb stress change region), the amplitude of the dynamic stress change is several times larger than the static stress change, suggesting that this event is possibly triggered by dynamic stress changes (albeit with

  7. EARLY STAGE RESPONSES OF INTENSIVE CARE UNITS DURING MAJOR DISASTERS: FROM THE EXPERIENCES OF THE GREAT EAST JAPAN EARTHQUAKE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimada, Jiro; Tase, Choichiro; Tsukada, Yasuhiko; Hasegawa, Arifumi; Iida, Hiroshi

    2015-01-01

    The present study investigated the role of intensive care units (ICU) during disasters, including the responses of our ICU following the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011. Our ICU comprises 8 beds for postoperative inpatients and those with rapidly deteriorating conditions; 20 beds in an emergency unit for critically ill patients; and 17 beds for neonates. It is important to secure empty beds when a major disaster occurs, as was the case after the Great Hanshin Earthquake, due to the resulting large numbers of trauma patients. Therefore, each ICU section cooperated to ensure sufficient space for admissions following the Great East Japan Earthquake. However, unlike the Great Hanshin Earthquake, securing beds was ultimately unnecessary due to the nature of the recent disaster, which also consisted of a subsequent tsunami and nuclear accident. Therefore, air quality monitoring was required on this occasion due to the risk of environmental radioactive pollution from the nuclear disaster causing problems with artificial respiration management involving atmospheric air. The variability in damage arising during different disasters thus requires a flexible response from ICUs that handle seriously ill patients.

  8. [Comment on "Exaggerated claims about earthquake predictions: Analysis of NASA's method"] Pattern informatics and cellular seismology: A comparison of methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, John B.; Tiampo, Kristy F.; Klein, William

    2007-06-01

    The recent article in Eos by Kafka and Ebel [2007] is a criticism of a NASA press release issued on 4 October 2004 describing an earthquake forecast (http://quakesim.jpl.nasa.gov/scorecard.html) based on a pattern informatics (PI) method [Rundle et al., 2002]. This 2002 forecast was a map indicating the probable locations of earthquakes having magnitude m>5.0 that would occur over the period of 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009. Kafka and Ebel [2007] compare the Rundle et al. [2002] forecast to a retrospective analysis using a cellular seismology (CS) method. Here we analyze the performance of the Rundle et al. [2002] forecast using the first 15 of the m>5.0 earthquakes that occurred in the area covered by the forecasts.

  9. Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Sornette, Didier

    2010-01-01

    This chapter first presents a rather personal view of some different aspects of predictability, going in crescendo from simple linear systems to high-dimensional nonlinear systems with stochastic forcing, which exhibit emergent properties such as phase transitions and regime shifts. Then, a detailed correspondence between the phenomenology of earthquakes, financial crashes and epileptic seizures is offered. The presented statistical evidence provides the substance of a general phase diagram for understanding the many facets of the spatio-temporal organization of these systems. A key insight is to organize the evidence and mechanisms in terms of two summarizing measures: (i) amplitude of disorder or heterogeneity in the system and (ii) level of coupling or interaction strength among the system's components. On the basis of the recently identified remarkable correspondence between earthquakes and seizures, we present detailed information on a class of stochastic point processes that has been found to be particu...

  10. Coseismic slip and early afterslip of the 2015 Illapel, Chile, earthquake: Implications for frictional heterogeneity and coastal uplift

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnhart, William D.; Murray, Jessica R.; Briggs, Richard W.; Gomez, Francisco; Miles, Charles P. J.; Svarc, Jerry; Riquelme, Sebastian; Stressler, Bryan J.

    2016-08-01

    Great subduction earthquakes are thought to rupture portions of the megathrust, where interseismic coupling is high and velocity-weakening frictional behavior is dominant, releasing elastic deformation accrued over a seismic cycle. Conversely, postseismic afterslip is assumed to occur primarily in regions of velocity-strengthening frictional characteristics that may correlate with lower interseismic coupling. However, it remains unclear if fixed frictional properties of the subduction interface, coseismic or aftershock-induced stress redistribution, or other factors control the spatial distribution of afterslip. Here we use interferometric synthetic aperture radar and Global Position System observations to map the distribution of coseismic slip of the 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel, Chile, earthquake and afterslip within the first 38 days following the earthquake. We find that afterslip overlaps the coseismic slip area and propagates along-strike into regions of both high and moderate interseismic coupling. The significance of these observations, however, is tempered by the limited resolution of geodetic inversions for both slip and coupling. Additional afterslip imaged deeper on the fault surface bounds a discrete region of deep coseismic slip, and both contribute to net uplift of the Chilean Coastal Cordillera. A simple partitioning of the subduction interface into regions of fixed frictional properties cannot reconcile our geodetic observations. Instead, stress heterogeneities, either preexisting or induced by the earthquake, likely provide the primary control on the afterslip distribution for this subduction zone earthquake. We also explore the occurrence of coseismic and postseismic coastal uplift in this sequence and its implications for recent hypotheses concerning the source of permanent coastal uplift along subduction zones.

  11. PRECURSORS OF EARTHQUAKES: VLF SIGNALSIONOSPHERE IONOSPHERE RELATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa ULAS

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available lot of people have died because of earthquakes every year. Therefore It is crucial to predict the time of the earthquakes reasonable time before it had happed. This paper presents recent information published in the literature about precursors of earthquakes. The relationships between earthquakes and ionosphere are targeted to guide new researches in order to study further to find novel prediction methods.

  12. Nowcasting Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Donnellan, A.; Grant Ludwig, L.; Turcotte, D. L.; Luginbuhl, M.; Gail, G.

    2016-12-01

    Nowcasting is a term originating from economics and finance. It refers to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy or markets at the current time by indirect means. We apply this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of the fault system, and its current level of progress through the earthquake cycle. In our implementation of this idea, we use the global catalog of earthquakes, using "small" earthquakes to determine the level of hazard from "large" earthquakes in the region. Our method does not involve any model other than the idea of an earthquake cycle. Rather, we define a specific region and a specific large earthquake magnitude of interest, ensuring that we have enough data to span at least 20 or more large earthquake cycles in the region. We then compute the earthquake potential score (EPS) which is defined as the cumulative probability distribution P(nearthquakes in the region. From the count of small earthquakes since the last large earthquake, we determine the value of EPS = P(nearthquake cycle in the defined region at the current time.

  13. Earthquake Facts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jump to Navigation Earthquake Facts The largest recorded earthquake in the United States was a magnitude 9.2 that struck Prince William Sound, ... we know, there is no such thing as "earthquake weather" . Statistically, there is an equal distribution of ...

  14. Nowcasting earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.; Grant Ludwig, L.; Luginbuhl, M.; Gong, G.

    2016-11-01

    Nowcasting is a term originating from economics and finance. It refers to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy or markets at the current time by indirect means. We apply this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of the fault system and its current level of progress through the earthquake cycle. In our implementation of this idea, we use the global catalog of earthquakes, using "small" earthquakes to determine the level of hazard from "large" earthquakes in the region. Our method does not involve any model other than the idea of an earthquake cycle. Rather, we define a specific region and a specific large earthquake magnitude of interest, ensuring that we have enough data to span at least 20 or more large earthquake cycles in the region. We then compute the earthquake potential score (EPS) which is defined as the cumulative probability distribution P(n < n(t)) for the current count n(t) for the small earthquakes in the region. From the count of small earthquakes since the last large earthquake, we determine the value of EPS = P(n < n(t)). EPS is therefore the current level of hazard and assigns a number between 0% and 100% to every region so defined, thus providing a unique measure. Physically, the EPS corresponds to an estimate of the level of progress through the earthquake cycle in the defined region at the current time.

  15. Early Prediction of Transient Voltage Sags caused by Rotor Swings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weckesser, Johannes Tilman Gabriel; Jóhannsson, Hjörtur; Van Cutsem, Thierry

    2014-01-01

    The paper investigates various methods to predict voltage sags at load buses caused by large generator rotor swings and following a transient disturbance. Three different prediction methods are proposed, which all use real-time measurements from PMUs. One of the methods uses a slightly extended v...

  16. Imaging the high-frequency energy radiation process of a mainshock and its early aftershock sequence for a crustal earthquake in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawazaki, K.; Enescu, B.

    2013-12-01

    Waveform recordings of aftershocks occurring immediately after a mainshock are mostly hidden by the coda wave of the mainshock and overlap one with each other. Consequently, the detection of such early events is very difficult and the completeness of earthquake catalogs at short times after large events becomes poor. To overcome this difficulty, we developed an inversion scheme which measures the energy radiation process of the early aftershock sequence using continuous seismogram envelopes in the 1-16 Hz frequency range. This inversion scheme makes use of the coda wave envelope, synthesized on the basis of the radiative transfer theory as the Green's function. Here the multiple isotropic scattering and intrinsic attenuation parameters in a 3-D infinite scattering medium are estimated through the multiple lapse time window analysis. The site amplification factor is also corrected using the coda normalization method. We apply the envelope inversion technique to the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake, Japan (Mw6.9), and its early aftershock sequence. The inverted energy release rate has two stages. At 10-30 s and 30-600 s after the mainshock origin time, the energy release rate decays following t(-4 to -8) and t(-1 to -2), respectively. The modified Omori formula cannot fit the energy release rate before 30 s. This change in the temporal decay rate suggests that the mechanism of energy release process changes; the energy release from the termination stage of the mainshock rupture dominates before 30 s, while that by the early aftershocks dominates at later times.

  17. Earthquakes: Thinking about the unpredictable

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geller, Robert J.

    The possibility of predicting earthquakes has been investigated by professionals and amateurs, seismologists and nonseismologists, for over 100 years. More than once, hopes of a workable earthquake prediction scheme have been raised only to be dashed. Such schemes—on some occasions accompanied by claims of an established track record—continue to be proposed, not only by Earth scientists, but also by workers in other fields. The assessment of these claims is not just a scientific or technical question. Public administrators and policy makers must make decisions regarding appropriate action in response to claims that some scheme has a predictive capability, or to specific predictions of imminent earthquakes.

  18. Earthquake forecast enrichment scores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine Smyth

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP is a global project aimed at testing earthquake forecast models in a fair environment. Various metrics are currently used to evaluate the submitted forecasts. However, the CSEP still lacks easily understandable metrics with which to rank the universal performance of the forecast models. In this research, we modify a well-known and respected metric from another statistical field, bioinformatics, to make it suitable for evaluating earthquake forecasts, such as those submitted to the CSEP initiative. The metric, originally called a gene-set enrichment score, is based on a Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic. Our modified metric assesses if, over a certain time period, the forecast values at locations where earthquakes have occurred are significantly increased compared to the values for all locations where earthquakes did not occur. Permutation testing allows for a significance value to be placed upon the score. Unlike the metrics currently employed by the CSEP, the score places no assumption on the distribution of earthquake occurrence nor requires an arbitrary reference forecast. In this research, we apply the modified metric to simulated data and real forecast data to show it is a powerful and robust technique, capable of ranking competing earthquake forecasts.

  19. Phase Transformations and Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, H. W.

    2011-12-01

    Phase transformations have been cited as responsible for, or at least involved in, "deep" earthquakes for many decades (although the concept of "deep" has varied). In 1945, PW Bridgman laid out in detail the string of events/conditions that would have to be achieved for a solid/solid transformation to lead to a faulting instability, although he expressed pessimism that the full set of requirements would be simultaneously achieved in nature. Raleigh and Paterson (1965) demonstrated faulting during dehydration of serpentine under stress and suggested dehydration embrittlement as the cause of intermediate depth earthquakes. Griggs and Baker (1969) produced a thermal runaway model of a shear zone under constant stress, culminating in melting, and proposed such a runaway as the origin of deep earthquakes. The discovery of Plate Tectonics in the late 1960s established the conditions (subduction) under which Bridgman's requirements for earthquake runaway in a polymorphic transformation could be possible in nature and Green and Burnley (1989) found that instability during the transformation of metastable olivine to spinel. Recent seismic correlation of intermediate-depth-earthquake hypocenters with predicted conditions of dehydration of antigorite serpentine and discovery of metastable olivine in 4 subduction zones, suggests strongly that dehydration embrittlement and transformation-induced faulting are the underlying mechanisms of intermediate and deep earthquakes, respectively. The results of recent high-speed friction experiments and analysis of natural fault zones suggest that it is likely that similar processes occur commonly during many shallow earthquakes after initiation by frictional failure.

  20. 高速铁路地震预警系统现状综述%An overview of earthquake early warning systems for high speed railways and its application to Beijing-Shanghai high speed railway

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙利; 钟红; 林皋

    2011-01-01

    Earthquake is a disastrous hazard regarding the safety and stability of high speed trains. Considering the fact that earthquake forecast is not matured yet, development of earthquake early warning system is a very important countermeasure for earthquake disaster mitigation. Quite a few high speed railways are being or to be built to improve traffic condition in China, but there' s yet no existing on the earthquake early warning system for high speed railways in Chinese mainland. Basic principles of the earthquake early warning system and its application to railways are presented. The state-of-the-art of the earthquake early warning systems for high speed railways around the world is introduced. Main points in development of the earthquake early warning system for high speed railways are discussed , including threshold for early warning, layout of monitoring stations, train operation and structure of the early warning system, with particular attention paid to the Beijing-Shanghai high speed railway. The present review is expected to be of significance to the development of the early warning system for high speed railways in China.%地震是对高速列车安全运营威胁最大的自然灾害.在目前地震预报技术还很不成熟的情况下,发展地震预警技术是当前减轻或避免地震对高速铁路危害的重要措施.文中阐述了地震预警技术的原理及其在铁路方面的应用.对国内外已有的高速铁路地震预警系统的发展和现状进行了介绍.结合国内外的发展现状和京沪高速铁路对地震预警系统的实际需求,对我国高速铁路的地震预警系统进行了探讨.主要针对高速铁路预警系统的报警阈值,监测点的布置,列车控制方式和预警系统的基本组成等关键问题的研究现状进行了总结和探讨.对我国高速铁路地震预警系统的建立具有重要的借鉴意义.

  1. Early pharmaceutical profiling to predict oral drug absorption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bergström, Christel A S; Holm, René; Jørgensen, Søren Astrup

    2014-01-01

    Preformulation measurements are used to estimate the fraction absorbed in vivo for orally administered compounds and thereby allow an early evaluation of the need for enabling formulations. As part of the Oral Biopharmaceutical Tools (OrBiTo) project, this review provides a summary of the pharmac......Preformulation measurements are used to estimate the fraction absorbed in vivo for orally administered compounds and thereby allow an early evaluation of the need for enabling formulations. As part of the Oral Biopharmaceutical Tools (OrBiTo) project, this review provides a summary...... and state-of-the art methodologies to study API properties impacting on oral absorption are reviewed. Assays performed during early development, i.e. physicochemical characterization, dissolution profiles under physiological conditions, permeability assays and the impact of excipients on these properties...

  2. Future Earth: Reducing Loss By Automating Response to Earthquake Shaking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, R. M.

    2014-12-01

    Earthquakes pose a significant threat to society in the U.S. and around the world. The risk is easily forgotten given the infrequent recurrence of major damaging events, yet the likelihood of a major earthquake in California in the next 30 years is greater than 99%. As our societal infrastructure becomes ever more interconnected, the potential impacts of these future events are difficult to predict. Yet, the same inter-connected infrastructure also allows us to rapidly detect earthquakes as they begin, and provide seconds, tens or seconds, or a few minutes warning. A demonstration earthquake early warning system is now operating in California and is being expanded to the west coast (www.ShakeAlert.org). In recent earthquakes in the Los Angeles region, alerts were generated that could have provided warning to the vast majority of Los Angelinos who experienced the shaking. Efforts are underway to build a public system. Smartphone technology will be used not only to issue that alerts, but could also be used to collect data, and improve the warnings. The MyShake project at UC Berkeley is currently testing an app that attempts to turn millions of smartphones into earthquake-detectors. As our development of the technology continues, we can anticipate ever-more automated response to earthquake alerts. Already, the BART system in the San Francisco Bay Area automatically stops trains based on the alerts. In the future, elevators will stop, machinery will pause, hazardous materials will be isolated, and self-driving cars will pull-over to the side of the road. In this presentation we will review the current status of the earthquake early warning system in the US. We will illustrate how smartphones can contribute to the system. Finally, we will review applications of the information to reduce future losses.

  3. Early skin toxicity predicts better outcomes, and early tumor shrinkage predicts better response after cetuximab treatment in advanced colorectal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kogawa, T; Doi, A; Shimokawa, M; Fouad, T M; Osuga, T; Tamura, F; Mizushima, T; Kimura, T; Abe, S; Ihara, H; Kukitsu, T; Sumiyoshi, T; Yoshizaki, N; Hirayama, M; Sasaki, T; Kawarada, Y; Kitashiro, S; Okushiba, S; Kondo, H; Tsuji, Y

    2015-03-01

    Cetuximab-containing treatments for metastatic colorectal cancer have been shown to have higher overall response rates and longer progression-free and overall survival than other systemic therapies. Cetuximab-related manifestations, including severe skin toxicity and early tumor shrinkage, have been shown to be predictors of response to cetuximab. We hypothesized that early skin toxicity is a predictor of response and better outcomes in patients with advanced colorectal carcinoma. We retrospectively evaluated 62 patients with colorectal adenocarcinoma who had unresectable tumors and were treated with cetuximab in our institution. Skin toxicity grade was evaluated on each treatment day. Tumor size was evaluated using computed tomography prior to treatment and 4-8 weeks after the start of treatment with cetuximab.Patients with early tumor shrinkage after starting treatment with cetuximab had a significantly higher overall response rate (P = 0.0001). Patients with early skin toxicity showed significantly longer overall survival (P = 0.0305), and patients with higher skin toxicity grades had longer progression-free survival (P = 0.0168).We have shown that early tumor shrinkage, early onset of skin toxicity, and high skin toxicity grade are predictors of treatment efficacy and/or outcome in patients with advanced colorectal carcinoma treated with cetuximab.

  4. Predicting early adoption of successive video player generations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijnsoever, F.J. van; Oppewal, H.

    2012-01-01

    Early adopters play an important role in the innovation diffusion process. Over the past decades, many factors have been identified as predictors for earlyadoption of innovations. Less attention has been paid to the relationship between the earlyadoption of one generation of a specific product and

  5. Predicting early adoption of successive video player generations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijnsoever, F.J. van; Oppewal, H.

    2012-01-01

    Early adopters play an important role in the innovation diffusion process. Over the past decades, many factors have been identified as predictors for earlyadoption of innovations. Less attention has been paid to the relationship between the earlyadoption of one generation of a specific product and t

  6. Sustained Attention and Age Predict Inhibitory Control during Early Childhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reck, Sarah G.; Hund, Alycia M.

    2011-01-01

    Executive functioning skills develop rapidly during early childhood. Recent research has focused on specifying this development, particularly predictors of executive functioning skills. Here we focus on sustained attention as a predictor of inhibitory control, one key executive functioning component. Although sustained attention and inhibitory…

  7. Frequent Daytime Naps Predict Vocabulary Growth in Early Childhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horváth, Klára; Plunkett, Kim

    2016-01-01

    Background: The facilitating role of sleep for language learning is well-attested in adults and to a lesser extent in infants and toddlers. However, the longitudinal relationship between sleep patterns and early vocabulary development is not well understood. Methods: This study investigates how measures of sleep are related to the development of…

  8. Frequent Daytime Naps Predict Vocabulary Growth in Early Childhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horváth, Klára; Plunkett, Kim

    2016-01-01

    Background: The facilitating role of sleep for language learning is well-attested in adults and to a lesser extent in infants and toddlers. However, the longitudinal relationship between sleep patterns and early vocabulary development is not well understood. Methods: This study investigates how measures of sleep are related to the development of…

  9. The Capabilities of Seismogeodesy with Low-Cost MEMS Accelerometers and Very-High-Rate GNSS Data and Implications for Earthquake and Near-Shore Tsunami Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saunders, J. K.; Haase, J. S.; Bock, Y.; Goldberg, D.; Melgar, D.; Offield, D. G.

    2015-12-01

    Studies of the number of fatalities for near-source coastal communities during the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and tsunami show that evacuation start time was a critical factor. The extent of the evacuation area was predetermined according to earthquake magnitude, which in this case was severely underestimated primarily due to magnitude saturation experienced with seismic data. Rapid magnitude-estimation schemes that utilize magnitude-scaling relationships based on maximum P-wave amplitude and peak ground displacement require accurate near-field displacements that are difficult to obtain with traditional strong-motion data alone because of baseline offsets at low frequencies. Here we describe a real time seismogeodetic approach that computes accurate near-field broadband displacements and velocities by combining collocated accelerometer data and high-rate GNSS displacement observations. The number of collocated stations currently operating in Western North America is insufficient for routine application of the method, especially for intermediate size events, and expansion is limited by the high cost of observatory-grade accelerometers. To ameliorate this, we have developed an inexpensive MEMS accelerometer package to upgrade established GNSS stations and an SIO Geodetic Module to transmit very-high-rate (10 Hz and greater) displacement and velocity waveforms via on-site precise point positioning. These packages have already been installed at 25 stations in California but have yet to experience a large event. We use experiments on the NEES@UCSD Large High-Performance Outdoor Shake Table to demonstrate the capabilities. We find that the seismogeodetic solutions using the MEMS and 10Hz GNSS data are comparable to those using observatory-grade accelerometers. We describe the expected performance of the MEMS seismogeodetic combination in the field based on these results and the benefits of such seismogeodetic data to earthquake and tsunami early warning.

  10. A Spatial Correlation Model of Peak Ground Acceleration and Response Spectra Based on Data of the Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response and Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagener, Thomas; Goda, Katsuichiro; Erdik, Mustafa; Daniell, James; Wenzel, Friedemann

    2016-04-01

    Ground motion intensity measures such as the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and the pseudo spectral acceleration (PSA) at two sites due to the same seismic event are correlated. The spatial correlation needs to be considered when modelling ground-motion fields for seismic loss assessments, since it can have a significant influence on the statistical moments and probability distribution of aggregated seismic loss of a building portfolio. Empirical models of spatial correlation of ground motion intensity measures exist only for a few seismic regions in the world such as Japan, Taiwan and California, since for this purpose a dense observation network of earthquake ground motion is required. The Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response and Early Warning System (IERREWS) provides one such dense array with station spacing of typically 2 km in the urban area of Istanbul. Based on the records of eight small to moderate (Mw3.5 - Mw5.1) events, which occurred since 2003 in the Marmara region, we establish a model of intra-event spatial correlation for PGA and PSA up to the natural period of 1.0 s. The results indicate that the correlation coefficients of PGA and short-period PSA decay rapidly with increasing interstation distance, resulting in correlation lengths of approximately 2-3 km, while correlation lengths at longer natural periods (above 0.5 s) exceed 5 km. Finally, we implement the correlation model in a Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate economic loss in Istanbul's district Zeytinburnu due to an Mw7.2 scenario earthquake.

  11. Characteristics and prediction of early pain after laparoscopic cholecystectomy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bisgaard, T; Klarskov, B; Rosenberg, J

    2001-01-01

    postoperative week patients registered overall pain, incisional, visceral, and shoulder pain on a visual analogue scale and verbal rating scale, and daily analgesic requirements were noted. Throughout the first postoperative week overall pain showed a pronounced inter-individual variability. Incisional pain...... dominated in incidence and intensity compared with visceral pain, which in turn dominated over shoulder pain. In a multivariate analysis model, preoperative neuroticism, sensitivity to cold pressor-induced pain, and age were identified as independent risk factors for early postoperative pain. Our results......Small-scale studies have suggested a large inter-individual variation in early postoperative pain after laparoscopic cholecystectomy, emphasizing the need for improved analgesic treatment and valid predictors. We investigated prospectively the association between a preoperative nociceptive stimulus...

  12. Hybrid Model for Early Onset Prediction of Driver Fatigue with Observable Cues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingheng Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a hybrid model for early onset prediction of driver fatigue, which is the major reason of severe traffic accidents. The proposed method divides the prediction problem into three stages, that is, SVM-based model for predicting the early onset driver fatigue state, GA-based model for optimizing the parameters in the SVM, and PCA-based model for reducing the dimensionality of the complex features datasets. The model and algorithm are illustrated with driving experiment data and comparison results also show that the hybrid method can generally provide a better performance for driver fatigue state prediction.

  13. Machine Learning Techniques for Prediction of Early Childhood Obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugan, T M; Mukhopadhyay, S; Carroll, A; Downs, S

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to predict childhood obesity after age two, using only data collected prior to the second birthday by a clinical decision support system called CHICA. Analyses of six different machine learning methods: RandomTree, RandomForest, J48, ID3, Naïve Bayes, and Bayes trained on CHICA data show that an accurate, sensitive model can be created. Of the methods analyzed, the ID3 model trained on the CHICA dataset proved the best overall performance with accuracy of 85% and sensitivity of 89%. Additionally, the ID3 model had a positive predictive value of 84% and a negative predictive value of 88%. The structure of the tree also gives insight into the strongest predictors of future obesity in children. Many of the strongest predictors seen in the ID3 modeling of the CHICA dataset have been independently validated in the literature as correlated with obesity, thereby supporting the validity of the model. This study demonstrated that data from a production clinical decision support system can be used to build an accurate machine learning model to predict obesity in children after age two.

  14. Early adversity disrupts the adult use of aversive prediction errors to reduce fear in uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristina M Wright

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Early life adversity increases anxiety in adult rodents and primates, and increases the risk for developing post-traumatic disorder (PTSD in humans. We hypothesized that early adversity impairs the use of learning signals – negative, aversive prediction errors – to reduce fear in uncertainty. To test this hypothesis, we gave adolescent rats a battery of adverse experiences then assessed adult performance in probabilistic Pavlovian fear conditioning and fear extinction. Rats were confronted with three cues associated with different probabilities of foot shock: one cue never predicted shock, another cue predicted shock with uncertainty, and a final cue always predicted shock. Control rats initially acquired fear to all cues, but rapidly reduced fear to the non-predictive and uncertain cues. Early adversity rats were slower to reduce fear to the non-predictive cue and never fully reduced fear to the uncertain cue. In extinction, all cues were presented in the absence of shock. Fear to the uncertain cue in discrimination, but not early adversity itself, predicted the reduction of fear in extinction. These results demonstrate early adversity impairs the use of negative, aversive prediction errors to reduce fear, especially in situations of uncertainty.

  15. Earthquake forecasting: Statistics and Information

    CERN Document Server

    Gertsik, V; Krichevets, A

    2013-01-01

    We present an axiomatic approach to earthquake forecasting in terms of multi-component random fields on a lattice. This approach provides a method for constructing point estimates and confidence intervals for conditional probabilities of strong earthquakes under conditions on the levels of precursors. Also, it provides an approach for setting multilevel alarm system and hypothesis testing for binary alarms. We use a method of comparison for different earthquake forecasts in terms of the increase of Shannon information. 'Forecasting' and 'prediction' of earthquakes are equivalent in this approach.

  16. Predicting mobility outcome in lower limb amputees with motor ability tests used in early rehabilitation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spaan, Matthijs H; Vrieling, Aline H; van de Berg, Pim; Dijkstra, Pieter U; van Keeken, Helco G

    STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. BACKGROUND: Persons with a lower limb amputation can regain mobility using a prosthetic device. For fast and adequate prescription of prosthetic components, it is necessary to predict the mobility outcome early in rehabilitation. Currently, prosthetic

  17. Early Brain changes May Help Predict Autism Among High-Risk Infants

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Media Resources Interviews & Selected Staff Profiles Multimedia Early brain changes may help predict autism among high-risk ... Share this: Page Content NIH-funded researchers link brain changes at 6 and 12 months of age ...

  18. The use of early summer mosquito surveillance to predict late summer West Nile virus activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginsberg, Howard S.; Rochlin, Ilia; Campbell, Scott R.

    2010-01-01

    Utility of early-season mosquito surveillance to predict West Nile virus activity in late summer was assessed in Suffolk County, NY. Dry ice-baited CDC miniature light traps paired with gravid traps were set weekly. Maximum-likelihood estimates of WNV positivity, minimum infection rates, and % positive pools were generally well correlated. However, positivity in gravid traps was not correlated with positivity in CDC light traps. The best early-season predictors of WNV activity in late summer (estimated using maximum-likelihood estimates of Culex positivity in August and September) were early date of first positive pool, low numbers of mosquitoes in July, and low numbers of mosquito species in July. These results suggest that early-season entomological samples can be used to predict WNV activity later in the summer, when most human cases are acquired. Additional research is needed to establish which surveillance variables are most predictive and to characterize the reliability of the predictions.

  19. 地震预警震级计算方法研究综述%Review on magnitude estimation methods applied to earthquake early warning systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张红才; 金星; 李军; 韦永祥; 马强

    2012-01-01

    地震预警系统是减轻地震灾害的有效手段之一,世界上多个国家和地区都已经建立了地震预警系统,并在实际应用中取得了显著的减灾实效.由于地震预警系统应用中的高度时效性要求,预警震级计算是整个地震预警系统中最重要也是最困难的一部分.本文回顾总结了地震预警研究中采用的一些震级计算方法,并将其归纳为三大类算法:与初始周期相关的算法、与初始幅值相关的算法和与初始强度相关的算法.对每种算法都做了详尽介绍和仔细分析,同时列举出与该算法相关的研究成果,通过对这些算法的分析总结并结合我国地震观测台网的实际情况,作者推荐τc、Pd两种方法作为我国地震预警系统建设中优先采用的两种预警震级算法.%Earthquake early warning (EEW) system is one of the effective ways to mitigate earthquake hazards. Several countries and regions in the world have been built their EEW systems and achieved significant mitigation practical effectiveness during operations. Due to the high degree of timeliness requirements of EEW system, earthquake magnitude estimation is the most important also the most difficult part in the whole system. In this paper, we reviewed and summarized earthquake magnitude estimation methods that applied to EEW systems, and grouped them into three categoriesi those are methods associated with initial periods, methods associated with initial amplitudes and methods associated with initial intensities. We made detailed introduction of each method and analyzed them carefully, also we enumerate related research results of each method. Through these analyses and considering the actual situation of seismic networks in our country, the author recommends τc and Pd methods as the two priority magnitude estimation methods when we build the EEW system in our country.

  20. Predicting Early Spelling: The Contribution of Children's Early Literacy, Private Speech during Spelling, Behavioral Regulation, and Parental Spelling Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aram, Dorit; Abiri, Shimrit; Elad, Lili

    2014-01-01

    The present study aimed to extend understanding of preschoolers' early spelling using the Vygotskian ("Mind in society: the development of higher psychological processes," Cambridge, Harvard University Press, 1978) paradigm of child development. We assessed the contribution of maternal spelling support in predicting children's word…

  1. Predicting Early Spelling: The Contribution of Children's Early Literacy, Private Speech during Spelling, Behavioral Regulation, and Parental Spelling Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aram, Dorit; Abiri, Shimrit; Elad, Lili

    2014-01-01

    The present study aimed to extend understanding of preschoolers' early spelling using the Vygotskian ("Mind in society: the development of higher psychological processes," Cambridge, Harvard University Press, 1978) paradigm of child development. We assessed the contribution of maternal spelling support in predicting children's word…

  2. Web-based Tsunami Early Warning System: a case study of the 2010 Kepulaunan Mentawai Earthquake and Tsunami

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Ulutas

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the response of the Global Disasters Alerts and Coordination System (GDACS in relation to a case study: the Kepulaunan Mentawai earthquake and related tsunami, which occurred on 25 October 2010. The GDACS, developed by the European Commission Joint Research Center, combines existing web-based disaster information management systems with the aim to alert the international community in case of major disasters. The tsunami simulation system is an integral part of the GDACS. In more detail, the study aims to assess the tsunami hazard on the Mentawai and Sumatra coasts: the tsunami heights and arrival times have been estimated employing three propagation models based on the long wave theory. The analysis was performed in three stages: (1 pre-calculated simulations by using the tsunami scenario database for that region, used by the GDACS system to estimate the alert level; (2 near-real-time simulated tsunami forecasts, automatically performed by the GDACS system whenever a new earthquake is detected by the seismological data providers; and (3 post-event tsunami calculations using GCMT (Global Centroid Moment Tensor fault mechanism solutions proposed by US Geological Survey (USGS for this event. The GDACS system estimates the alert level based on the first type of calculations and on that basis sends alert messages to its users; the second type of calculations is available within 30–40 min after the notification of the event but does not change the estimated alert level. The third type of calculations is performed to improve the initial estimations and to have a better understanding of the extent of the possible damage. The automatic alert level for the earthquake was given between Green and Orange Alert, which, in the logic of GDACS, means no need or moderate need of international humanitarian assistance; however, the earthquake generated 3 to 9 m tsunami run-up along southwestern coasts of the Pagai Islands where 431 people died

  3. Characterized Fault Model of Scenario Earthquake Caused by the Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line Fault Zone in Central Japan and Strong Ground Motion Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, T.; Dan, K.; Irikura, K.; Furumura, M.

    2001-12-01

    Based on the existing ideas on characterizing complex fault rupture process, we constructed four different characterized fault models for predicting strong motions from the most likely scenario earthquake along the active fault zone of the Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line in central Japan. The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion in Japanese government (2001) estimated that the earthquake (8 +/- 0.5) has the total fault length of 112 km with four segments. We assumed that the characterized fault model consisted of two regions: asperity and background (Somerville et al., 1999; Irikura, 2000; Dan et al., 2000). The main differences in the four fault models were 1) how to determine a seismic moment Mo from a fault rupture area S, 2) number of asperities N, 3) how to determine a stress parameter σ , and 4) fmax. We calculated broadband strong motions at three stations near the fault by a hybrid method of the semi-empirical and theoretical approaches. A comparison between the results from the hybrid method and those from empirical attenuation relations showed that the hybrid method using the characterized fault model could evaluate near-fault rupture directivity effects more reliably than the empirical attenuation relations. We also discussed the characterized fault models and the strong motion characteristics. The Mo extrapolated from the empirical Mo-S relation by Somerville et al. (1999) was a half of that determined from the mean value of the Wells and Coppersmith (1994) data. The latter Mo was consistent with that for the 1891 Nobi, Japan, earthquake whose fault length was almost the same as the length of the target earthquake. In addition, the fault model using the latter Mo produced a slip amount of about 6 m on the largest asperity, which was consistent with the displacement of 6 m to 9 m per event obtained from a trench survey. High-frequency strong motions were greatly influenced by the σ for the asperities (188 bars, 246 bars, 108 bars, and 134

  4. 地震预测预报能与不能的争论%Dispute on Capability and Incapability for Earthquake Prediction and Forecast

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李世煇

    2012-01-01

    对破坏力巨大的地震的预测、预报,既是地震理论上的难题,也是技术上、实践上和政治政策上的难题。在我国曾有过成功的经验,但也有人为因素不能回避的惨痛的教训。在学术上存在着地震不可预测预报与地震可预测预报的尖锐争论,而这种争论又因为掺杂了政治上的因素而变得更加微妙、复杂、纠缠不清和难以深入,也制约着防震减灾事业的发展。地震不可预测预报论是目前的主流观点。不可预测预报论与可预测预报论的学术立场分歧也必然延伸到人们的防震减灾的社会实践当中。六十余年来,可预测预报论者积极进行预测预报上的学术创新,先后诞生过李四光的地质力学理论、翁文波的信息预测理论和天灾预测法、耿庆国的旱震关系理论、钱复业等的"潮汐力谐振共振短临前兆模型"、钱学森的"开放的复杂巨系统论"与"定性与定量的综合集成法"等等理论和技术成果。可预测预报论突破传统科学的还原论思维模式,积极发展现代系统论的思维模式,并挖掘中国古代传统科学中的一些要素和整理利用中国古代积累下来的对自然灾变观测的丰富资料,进行理论创新,并在地震预测预报实践中取得了一定的成效,但目前仍然克服不了种种理论的批判和质疑。尽管如此,可预测预报论者仍坚信如果能更好地克服思想上、体制上的障碍,中国地震预测预报科学研究工作者能创新出一种"半经验半理论的系统科学方法"的地震预测预报理论,在该领域为人类的科学进步事业做出巨大贡献。%The prediction and forecast of massive destructive earthquakes are not only a problem in earthquake theory,but also that in technique,practice and political policy.There have been in China successful experiences and unavoidable agonizing lessons due to human factors.Academically,the disputes

  5. Maternal Psychopathology and Early Child Temperament Predict Young Children's Salivary Cortisol 3 Years Later

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dougherty, Lea R.; Smith, Victoria C.; Olino, Thomas M.; Dyson, Margaret W.; Bufferd, Sara J.; Rose, Suzanne A.; Klein, Daniel N.

    2013-01-01

    Neuroendocrine dysfunction is hypothesized to be an early emerging vulnerability marker for depression. We tested whether the main and interactive effects of maternal psychopathology and early child temperamental vulnerability for depression assessed at age three predicted offspring's basal cortisol function at age 6 years. 228 (122 males)…

  6. Maternal Psychopathology and Early Child Temperament Predict Young Children's Salivary Cortisol 3 Years Later

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dougherty, Lea R.; Smith, Victoria C.; Olino, Thomas M.; Dyson, Margaret W.; Bufferd, Sara J.; Rose, Suzanne A.; Klein, Daniel N.

    2013-01-01

    Neuroendocrine dysfunction is hypothesized to be an early emerging vulnerability marker for depression. We tested whether the main and interactive effects of maternal psychopathology and early child temperamental vulnerability for depression assessed at age three predicted offspring's basal cortisol function at age 6 years. 228 (122 males)…

  7. Predictive Validity of Early Literacy Measures for Korean English Language Learners in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Jeanie Nam; Vanderwood, Michael L.; Lee, Catherine Y.

    2015-01-01

    This study examined the predictive validity of early literacy measures with first-grade Korean English language learners (ELLs) in the United States at varying levels of English proficiency. Participants were screened using Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills (DIBELS) Phoneme Segmentation Fluency (PSF), DIBELS Nonsense Word Fluency…

  8. An integrated study of physical precursors of failure in relation to earthquake prediction, using large scale rock blocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Ponomarev

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper is multi-analysis approach to rock failure using metric size rock samples. The use of large-scale models permits simulation of the seismic process (including internal rupture on several scales and utilization of a dense network for observation of the spatial variations of several physical parameters. The experiments were performed both on solid rock blocks and on concrete blocks with artificial defects, which enabled simulation of internal shear fracture. The number of various precursors appears to rise up to failure, all of them clearly manifest at the stage of a rapid drop in the applied stress (unstable deformation. The experiment suggests that rocks under strain and prior to failure must be characterized by a heterogeneous field of strains. This means that the strain is distributed mosaically, dilatancy does not generate uniformly and areas where it occurs are likely to be structurally mosaic themselves. To reinforce the prediction of micro- and macrofailure, we have realized simultaneous processing of the obtained data, using sophisticated multidimensional orthogonal functions to represent the different precursors. The possibility to identify the early stages of microfailures and to predict the macrofailure by means of statistical complex parameters derived from data on local deformations, acoustic emissions, elastic waves velocities, electric resistivity and self electric potentials is shown. Despite a considerable dissimilarity in mechanical properties of granite basalt and concrete, the complex parameter proves morphologically identical. Parameter S1 reveals exponential rise up to failure in all cases, and parameter S2 is bay-shaped in form, which makes it more promising in terms of prognosis.

  9. Predicting Early Awakening from Coma after Intracerebral Hemorrhage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana eGoodman

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction – Given the high morbidity and mortality associated with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH, family members and healthcare providers base early supportive management decisions, at least in part, on expected prognosis. In the comatose patient with ICH, this short-term prognosis is most overtly characterized by regaining of consciousness.Methods – A retrospective consecutive cohort of 51 patients admitted to a neuroICU with ICH and admission Glasgow Coma Scale score ≤ 8 was identified. Logistic regression was performed to assess the association of baseline characteristics and treatment parameters associated with awakening.Results – Awakening from coma was observed in 53% of ICH patients: 83% with an initial GCS score of 7-8, 43% with an initial score of 5-6, and 20% with an initial score of 3-4. Awakening from coma in the cohort of 27 patients who regained consciousness occurred in 59% of patients by day 2, 89% by day 7, and 96% by day 9. In multivariable analysis, only higher admission GCS score was associated with a greater likelihood of awakening from coma (OR 4.9 [95%CI 1.9–13] per 2-point category, p=0.001. DNR status during the first 24 hours was not associated with awakening but was at later time points.Conclusion – GCS score is the predominant initial predictor of early awakening in patients who present in coma after ICH. Patients who regained consciousness typically did so within the first 9 days of hospital admission.

  10. Early symptom burden predicts recovery after sport-related concussion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannix, Rebekah; Monuteaux, Michael C.; Stein, Cynthia J.; Bachur, Richard G.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To identify independent predictors of and use recursive partitioning to develop a multivariate regression tree predicting symptom duration greater than 28 days after a sport-related concussion. Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study of patients in a sports concussion clinic. Participants completed questionnaires that included the Post-Concussion Symptom Scale (PCSS). Participants were asked to record the date on which they last experienced symptoms. Potential predictor variables included age, sex, score on symptom inventories, history of prior concussions, performance on computerized neurocognitive assessments, loss of consciousness and amnesia at the time of injury, history of prior medical treatment for headaches, history of migraines, and family history of concussion. We used recursive partitioning analysis to develop a multivariate prediction model for identifying athletes at risk for a prolonged recovery from concussion. Results: A total of 531 patients ranged in age from 7 to 26 years (mean 14.6 ± 2.9 years). The mean PCSS score at the initial visit was 26 ± 26; mean time to presentation was 12 ± 5 days. Only total score on symptom inventory was independently associated with symptoms lasting longer than 28 days (adjusted odds ratio 1.044; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.034, 1.054 for PCSS). No other potential predictor variables were independently associated with symptom duration or useful in developing the optimal regression decision tree. Most participants (86%; 95% CI 80%, 90%) with an initial PCSS score of concussion is overall symptom burden. PMID:25381296

  11. Does a dynamic test of phonological awareness predict early reading difficulties?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gellert, Anna Steenberg; Elbro, Carsten

    2017-01-01

    A few studies have indicated that dynamic measures of phonological awareness may contribute uniquely to the prediction of early reading development. However, standard control measures have been few and limited by floor effects, thus limiting their predictive value. The purpose of the present stud...

  12. Catechol-O-methyltransferase Val158met Polymorphism Interacts With Early Experience to Predict Executive Functions in Early Childhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blair, Clancy; Sulik, Michael; Willoughby, Michael; Mills-Koonce, Roger; Petrill, Stephen; Bartlett, Christopher; Greenberg, Mark

    2017-01-01

    Numerous studies demonstrate that the Methionine variant of the catechol-O-methyltransferase Val158Met polymorphism, which confers less efficient catabolism of catecholamines, is associated with increased focal activation of prefrontal cortex (PFC) and higher levels of executive function abilities. By and large, however, studies of COMT Val158Met have been conducted with adult samples and do not account for the context in which development is occurring. Effects of early adversity on stress response physiology and the inverted U shape relating catecholamine levels to neural activity in PFC indicate the need to take into account early experience when considering relations between genes such as COMT and executive cognitive ability. Consistent with this neurobiology, we find in a prospective longitudinal sample of children and families (N=1292) that COMT Val158Met interacts with early experience to predict executive function abilities in early childhood. Specifically, the Valine variant of the COMT Val158Met polymorphism, which confers more rather than less efficient catabolism of catecholamines is associated with higher executive function abilities at child ages 48 and 60 months and with faster growth of executive function for children experiencing early adversity, as indexed by cumulative risk factors in the home at child ages 7, 15, 24, and 36 months. Findings indicate the importance of the early environment for the relation between catecholamine genes and developmental outcomes and demonstrate that the genetic moderation of environmental risk is detectable in early childhood. PMID:26251232

  13. Overview on earthquake monitoring and early warning system for high-speed Railway (Shinkansen) in Japan%日本新干线地震监测与预警系统

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    宋晋东; 李山有; 马强

    2012-01-01

    地震是一种对高速铁路行车安全危害极大的自然灾害,为了减轻地震对高速铁路造成的灾害,建设高速铁路地震监测与预警系统是一项行之有效的手段.详细介绍了较为成熟的日本新干线地震监测与预警系统的发展历史、系统组成、紧急处置流程、报警方式、震源参数与紧急处置范围的确定方法,以及该系统在2011年3月11日东日本大地震中的紧急处置过程,旨在为中国高速铁路地震监测与预警系统的研究与建设提供参考和借鉴.%Earthquake is a kind of natural disaster which has greatest threat to high - speed railway operation. Earthquake monitoring and early warning system is one of the effective ways to mitigate earthquake hazards for high - speed railway. This paper summarizes the development history, composition and emergency processing, type of a-larm and the determination method for the source parameters and the warning area potentially subject to damage of the earthquake monitoring and early warning system for the high-speed railway ( Shinkansen) in Japan that has been developed sophisticatedly, and presents the case of the 2011 Tonihon earthquake, so as to give necessary background and a reference to the research and construction of earthquake monitoring and early warning system for the high - speed railway in China.

  14. Children's visuospatial memory predicts mathematics achievement through early adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yaoran; Geary, David C

    2017-01-01

    A previous study showed that gains in visuospatial memory from first to fifth grade predicted end-of-fifth grade mathematics but not reading achievement, controlling other factors. In this follow up study, these relations were assessed from sixth to ninth grade, inclusive (n = 145). The results showed that growth in visuospatial memory across the elementary school years was related to growth in mathematics achievement after fifth grade, controlling intelligence, the central executive and phonological memory components of working memory, in-class attentive behavior, parental education, and fifth grade mathematics achievement. As found for fifth grade, this relation was not found for reading achievement after fifth grade. In total, the results suggest that visuospatial memory has a unique influence on ease of learning some types of mathematics and that this influence becomes more important across successive grades.

  15. Concurrent and predictive validity of an early language screening program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klee, T; Carson, D K; Gavin, W J; Hall, L; Kent, A; Reece, S

    1998-06-01

    The efficacy of screening 2-year-old children for language delay using a parent-report questionnaire was investigated in three studies. The Language Development Survey (Rescorla, 1989) was mailed to 650 families at the time of their child's second birthday. Fifty-three percent of the surveys received by parents were completed and returned. Screening outcomes were then compared, in double-blind fashion, with the results of comprehensive clinical evaluations at ages 2 (N = 64) and 3 (N = 36). Parents' report of the size of their children's expressive vocabularies was highly correlated with clinical language measures at age 2. Children who screened positive performed significantly poorer than children who screened negative on standardized language tests and on measures taken from spontaneous conversation. The screening program demonstrated excellent sensitivity and specificity for identifying language delay at age 2 but somewhat lower levels for predicting developmental status one year later.

  16. 3-D or median map? Earthquake scenario ground-motion maps from physics-based models versus maps from ground-motion prediction equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.

    2015-12-01

    There are two common ways to create a ground-motion map for a hypothetical earthquake: using ground motion prediction equations (by far the more common of the two) and using 3-D physics-based modeling. The former is very familiar to engineers, the latter much less so, and the difference can present a problem because engineers tend to trust the familiar and distrust novelty. Maps for essentially the same hypothetical earthquake using the two different methods can look very different, while appearing to present the same information. Using one or the other can lead an engineer or disaster planner to very different estimates of damage and risk. The reasons have to do with depiction of variability, spatial correlation of shaking, the skewed distribution of real-world shaking, and the upward-curving relationship between shaking and damage. The scientists who develop the two kinds of map tend to specialize in one or the other and seem to defend their turf, which can aggravate the problem of clearly communicating with engineers.The USGS Science Application for Risk Reduction's (SAFRR) HayWired scenario has addressed the challenge of explaining to engineers the differences between the two maps, and why, in a disaster planning scenario, one might want to use the less-familiar 3-D map.

  17. 断层活动协调比在地震预测中的应用%Application of Fault Motion Coordination Ratio in Earthquake Prediction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张晶; 黎凯武; 武艳强; 李春光

    2011-01-01

    In order to effectively obtain earthquake precursors of potential seismic source and state of fault strain accumulation, we analyzed the fault movements in Sichuan-Yunnan region and the Capital area of China applying the concept of fault motion coordination ratio (FCR). The results show that: ① The fault had been locked for at least ten years at the source region of M7. 0 Lijiang earthquake. The different characteristics of spatial and temporal of FCR change among several surveying sites, which may reflect the evolution of abnormal changes in the seismic source and external regions. ② The nature of fault motion can be identified using parameter of FCR. Fault movement is in free and non-strain accumulation state if FCR is in normal level, even though baseline and level surveying curve showed abnormal changes. ③ Certain kind of discrete changes of FCR appear before the majority of great earthquakes, which has certain values in analyzing the nature of fault motion, strain accumulation state and long-term earthquake prediction.%为了有效捕获潜在震源区前兆变化信息与断层应变积累状态,本文应用断层活动协调比概念,对川滇地区和首都圈地区断层活动进行了分析.结果表明:①丽江7.0级地震前震源区经历了至少有10多年的断层闭锁阶段,不同观测场地协调比变化的时空差异性特征可能反映了震源区以及外围的异常演化特征;②断层活动协调比参数可帮助判识断层活动的性质,当基线、水准原始观测曲线出现显著的变化,而协调比处于正常水平时,断层活动即为无应变积累的自由蠕滑;③断层活动协调比在大部分地震前都出现一定的离散性变化,对分析强震前的断层活动性质和应变积累状态以及地震中长期预测具有一定的参考价值.

  18. Real data assimilation for optimization of frictional parameters and prediction of afterslip in the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake inferred from slip velocity by an adjoint method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kano, Masayuki; Miyazaki, Shin'ichi; Ishikawa, Yoichi; Hiyoshi, Yoshihisa; Ito, Kosuke; Hirahara, Kazuro

    2015-10-01

    Data assimilation is a technique that optimizes the parameters used in a numerical model with a constraint of model dynamics achieving the better fit to observations. Optimized parameters can be utilized for the subsequent prediction with a numerical model and predicted physical variables are presumably closer to observations that will be available in the future, at least, comparing to those obtained without the optimization through data assimilation. In this work, an adjoint data assimilation system is developed for optimizing a relatively large number of spatially inhomogeneous frictional parameters during the afterslip period in which the physical constraints are a quasi-dynamic equation of motion and a laboratory derived rate and state dependent friction law that describe the temporal evolution of slip velocity at subduction zones. The observed variable is estimated slip velocity on the plate interface. Before applying this method to the real data assimilation for the afterslip of the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, a synthetic data assimilation experiment is conducted to examine the feasibility of optimizing the frictional parameters in the afterslip area. It is confirmed that the current system is capable of optimizing the frictional parameters A-B, A and L by adopting the physical constraint based on a numerical model if observations capture the acceleration and decaying phases of slip on the plate interface. On the other hand, it is unlikely to constrain the frictional parameters in the region where the amplitude of afterslip is less than 1.0 cm d-1. Next, real data assimilation for the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake is conducted to incorporate slip velocity data inferred from time dependent inversion of Global Navigation Satellite System time-series. The optimized values of A-B, A and L are O(10 kPa), O(102 kPa) and O(10 mm), respectively. The optimized frictional parameters yield the better fit to the observations and the better prediction skill of slip

  19. Early visceral pain predicts chronic pain after laparoscopic cholecystectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blichfeldt-Eckhardt, Morten Rune; Ording, Helle; Andersen, Claus; Licht, Peter B; Toft, Palle

    2014-11-01

    Chronic pain after laparoscopic cholecystectomy is related to postoperative pain during the first postoperative week, but it is unknown which components of the early pain response is important. In this prospective study, 100 consecutive patients were examined preoperatively, 1 week postoperatively, and 3, 6, and 12 months postoperatively for pain, psychological factors, and signs of hypersensitivity. Overall pain, incisional pain (somatic pain component), deep abdominal pain (visceral pain component), and shoulder pain (referred pain component) were registered on a 100-mm visual analogue scale during the first postoperative week. Nine patients developed chronic unexplained pain 12 months postoperatively. In a multivariate analysis model, cumulated visceral pain during the first week and number of preoperative biliary pain attacks were identified as independent risk factors for unexplained chronic pain 12 months postoperatively. There were no consistent signs of hypersensitivity in the referred pain area either pre- or postoperatively. There were no significant associations to any other variables examined. The risk of chronic pain after laparoscopic cholecystectomy is relatively low, but significantly related to the visceral pain response during the first postoperative week. Copyright © 2014 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Frontier Fields: High-Redshift Predictions and Early Results

    CERN Document Server

    Coe, Dan; Zitrin, Adi

    2014-01-01

    The Frontier Fields program is obtaining deep Hubble and Spitzer Space Telescope images of new "blank" fields and nearby fields gravitationally lensed by massive galaxy clusters. The Hubble images of the lensed fields are revealing nJy sources (AB mag > 31), the faintest galaxies yet observed. In this paper, we present high-redshift (z > 6) number count predictions for the full program and candidates in three of the first Hubble Frontier Fields images. The full program will transform our understanding of galaxy evolution in the first 600 million years (z > 9). Where previous programs yielded perhaps a dozen z > 9 candidates, the Frontier Fields may yield ~70 (~6 per field). We base this estimate on an extrapolation of luminosity functions observed between 4 9. This might suggest a deficit of faint z > 9 galaxies as also reported in the Ultra Deep Field (even while excesses of brighter z > 9 galaxies were reported in shallower fields). At these redshifts, cosmic variance (field-to-field variation) is expected...

  1. Analog earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hofmann, R.B. [Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses, San Antonio, TX (United States)

    1995-09-01

    Analogs are used to understand complex or poorly understood phenomena for which little data may be available at the actual repository site. Earthquakes are complex phenomena, and they can have a large number of effects on the natural system, as well as on engineered structures. Instrumental data close to the source of large earthquakes are rarely obtained. The rare events for which measurements are available may be used, with modfications, as analogs for potential large earthquakes at sites where no earthquake data are available. In the following, several examples of nuclear reactor and liquified natural gas facility siting are discussed. A potential use of analog earthquakes is proposed for a high-level nuclear waste (HLW) repository.

  2. Earthquake forecasting and its verification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Holliday

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months. However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. In this paper we discuss a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on a pattern informatics (PI method which quantifies temporal variations in seismicity. The output, which is based on an association of small earthquakes with future large earthquakes, is a map of areas in a seismogenic region ('hotspots'' where earthquakes are forecast to occur in a future 10-year time span. This approach has been successfully applied to California, to Japan, and on a worldwide basis. Because a sharp decision threshold is used, these forecasts are binary--an earthquake is forecast either to occur or to not occur. The standard approach to the evaluation of a binary forecast is the use of the relative (or receiver operating characteristic (ROC diagram, which is a more restrictive test and less subject to bias than maximum likelihood tests. To test our PI method, we made two types of retrospective forecasts for California. The first is the PI method and the second is a relative intensity (RI forecast based on the hypothesis that future large earthquakes will occur where most smaller earthquakes have occurred in the recent past. While both retrospective forecasts are for the ten year period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009, we performed an interim analysis 5 years into the forecast. The PI method out performs the RI method under most circumstances.

  3. ERPs recorded during early second language exposure predict syntactic learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batterink, Laura; Neville, Helen J

    2014-09-01

    Millions of adults worldwide are faced with the task of learning a second language (L2). Understanding the neural mechanisms that support this learning process is an important area of scientific inquiry. However, most previous studies on the neural mechanisms underlying L2 acquisition have focused on characterizing the results of learning, relying upon end-state outcome measures in which learning is assessed after it has occurred, rather than on the learning process itself. In this study, we adopted a novel and more direct approach to investigate neural mechanisms engaged during L2 learning, in which we recorded ERPs from beginning adult learners as they were exposed to an unfamiliar L2 for the first time. Learners' proficiency in the L2 was then assessed behaviorally using a grammaticality judgment task, and ERP data acquired during initial L2 exposure were sorted as a function of performance on this task. High-proficiency learners showed a larger N100 effect to open-class content words compared with closed-class function words, whereas low-proficiency learners did not show a significant N100 difference between open- and closed-class words. In contrast, amplitude of the N400 word category effect correlated with learners' L2 comprehension, rather than predicting syntactic learning. Taken together, these results indicate that learners who spontaneously direct greater attention to open- rather than closed-class words when processing L2 input show better syntactic learning, suggesting a link between selective attention to open-class content words and acquisition of basic morphosyntactic rules. These findings highlight the importance of selective attention mechanisms for L2 acquisition.

  4. Fine motor skills predict maths ability better than they predict reading ability in the early primary school years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicola J. Pitchford

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Fine motor skills have long been recognised as an important foundation for development in other domains. However, more precise insights into the role of fine motor skills, and their relationships to other skills in mediating early educational achievements, are needed to support the development of optimal educational interventions. We explored concurrent relationships between two components of fine motor skills, Fine Motor Precision and Fine Motor Integration, and early reading and maths development in two studies with primary school children of low-to-mid socio-economic status in the U.K. Two key findings were revealed. First, despite being in the first two years of primary school education, significantly better performance was found in reading compared to maths across both studies. This may reflect the protective effects of recent national-level interventions to promote early literacy skills in young children in the U.K. that have not been similarly promoted for maths. Second, fine motor skills were a better predictor of early maths ability than they were of early reading ability. Hierarchical multiple regression revealed that fine motor skills did not significantly predict reading ability when verbal short-term memory was taken into account. In contrast, Fine Motor Integration remained a significant predictor of maths ability, even after the influence of non-verbal IQ had been accounted for. These results suggest that fine motor skills should have a pivotal role in educational interventions designed to support the development of early mathematical skills.

  5. Fine Motor Skills Predict Maths Ability Better than They Predict Reading Ability in the Early Primary School Years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitchford, Nicola J; Papini, Chiara; Outhwaite, Laura A; Gulliford, Anthea

    2016-01-01

    Fine motor skills have long been recognized as an important foundation for development in other domains. However, more precise insights into the role of fine motor skills, and their relationships to other skills in mediating early educational achievements, are needed to support the development of optimal educational interventions. We explored concurrent relationships between two components of fine motor skills, Fine Motor Precision and Fine Motor Integration, and early reading and maths development in two studies with primary school children of low-to-mid socio-economic status in the UK. Two key findings were revealed. First, despite being in the first 2 years of primary school education, significantly better performance was found in reading compared to maths across both studies. This may reflect the protective effects of recent national-level interventions to promote early literacy skills in young children in the UK that have not been similarly promoted for maths. Second, fine motor skills were a better predictor of early maths ability than they were of early reading ability. Hierarchical multiple regression revealed that fine motor skills did not significantly predict reading ability when verbal short-term memory was taken into account. In contrast, Fine Motor Integration remained a significant predictor of maths ability, even after the influence of non-verbal IQ had been accounted for. These results suggest that fine motor skills should have a pivotal role in educational interventions designed to support the development of early mathematical skills.

  6. Coseismic and early postseismic slip of the 2014 South Napa earthquake from ABIC-based modeling of campaign GPS and InSAR data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funning, G.; Floyd, M.; Swiatlowski, J.; Herring, T.; Murray, J. R.; Svarc, J. L.; Johanson, I. A.; Yun, S. H.

    2014-12-01

    The August 24, 2014 South Napa, CA earthquake caused extensive surface rupture of a ~15 km zone along the western edge of Napa valley, including portions of the previously mapped West Napa fault. In the days following the event, growing offsets in cultural features crossing the main rupture strand indicated the occurrence of significant shallow afterslip. Here we use near-field campaign GPS data and InSAR data that closely bracket the earthquake and its early postseismic period to constrain models of the slip on that fault during and after the event. A joint inverse modeling approach based upon Akaike's Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) is used to optimally weight the contributions of each dataset and the smoothing constraint that we apply. Our model inputs are: (i) a GPS dataset, comprising pre-event data collected in campaign mode six weeks before the mainshock and three weeks of post-event data starting 8-36 hours after the mainshock collected in semi-continuous mode, from sites at distances 2-20 km from the rupture; and (ii) quadtree-downsampled InSAR data from both descending and ascending passes of the COSMO-SkyMed satellite constellation (first post-event acquisitions made 3 and 10 days after the mainshock, respectively). The former provide strong control on the timing of fault slip, the latter provide strong spatial constraints on fault location and geometry. Preliminary results indicate that the majority of coseismic slip occurred on a NNW-striking subvertical fault plane whose location is consistent with the mapped main surface rupture strand. The pattern of slip shallows significantly from the hypocenter along-strike to the NNW, peaking at ~1 m of slip at depths of 2-4 km, ~8 km NNW of the hypocenter.

  7. Postseismic deformation and stress changes following the 1819 Rann of Kachchh, India earthquake: Was the 2001 Bhuj earthquake a triggered event?

    Science.gov (United States)

    To, A.; Burgmann, R.; Pollitz, F.

    2004-01-01

    The 2001 Mw 7.6 Bhuj earthquake occurred in an intraplate region with rather unusual active seismicity, including an earlier major earthquake, the 1819 Rann of Kachchh earthquake (M7.7). We examine if static coseismic and transient postseismic deformation following the 1819 earthquake contributed to the enhanced seismicity in the region and the occurrence of the 2001 Bhuj earthquake, ???100 km away and almost two centuries later. Based on the Indian shield setting, great rupture depth of the 2001 event and lack of significant early postseismic deformation measured following the 2001 event, we infer that little viscous relaxation occurs in the lower crust and choose an upper mantle effective viscosity of 1019 Pas. The predicted Coulomb failure stress (DCFS) on the rupture plane of the 2001 event increased by more than 0.1 bar at 20 km depth, which is a small but possibly significant amount. Stress change from the 1819 event may have also affected the occurrence of other historic earthquakes in this region. We also evaluate the postseismic deformation and ??CFS in this region due to the 2001 event. Positive ??CFS from the 2001 event occur to the NW and SE of the Bhuj earthquake rupture. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

  8. Earthquake number forecasts testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagan, Yan Y.

    2017-10-01

    We study the distributions of earthquake numbers in two global earthquake catalogues: Global Centroid-Moment Tensor and Preliminary Determinations of Epicenters. The properties of these distributions are especially required to develop the number test for our forecasts of future seismic activity rate, tested by the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). A common assumption, as used in the CSEP tests, is that the numbers are described by the Poisson distribution. It is clear, however, that the Poisson assumption for the earthquake number distribution is incorrect, especially for the catalogues with a lower magnitude threshold. In contrast to the one-parameter Poisson distribution so widely used to describe earthquake occurrences, the negative-binomial distribution (NBD) has two parameters. The second parameter can be used to characterize the clustering or overdispersion of a process. We also introduce and study a more complex three-parameter beta negative-binomial distribution. We investigate the dependence of parameters for both Poisson and NBD distributions on the catalogue magnitude threshold and on temporal subdivision of catalogue duration. First, we study whether the Poisson law can be statistically rejected for various catalogue subdivisions. We find that for most cases of interest, the Poisson distribution can be shown to be rejected statistically at a high significance level in favour of the NBD. Thereafter, we investigate whether these distributions fit the observed distributions of seismicity. For this purpose, we study upper statistical moments of earthquake numbers (skewness and kurtosis) and compare them to the theoretical values for both distributions. Empirical values for the skewness and the kurtosis increase for the smaller magnitude threshold and increase with even greater intensity for small temporal subdivision of catalogues. The Poisson distribution for large rate values approaches the Gaussian law, therefore its skewness

  9. Prediction and set-dependent scaling of early postural responses in cerebellar patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timmann, D; Horak, F B

    1997-02-01

    We reported previously that patients with cerebellar deficits were unable to scale the magnitude of their early automatic postural responses to the predicted amplitudes of surface translations based on central set from prior experience. The present study investigated whether this deficit in set-dependent amplitude scaling was based predominantly on the cerebellar patient's disability (i) to predict perturbation amplitudes on the basis of prior experience, (ii) to scale the gain or magnitude of upcoming postural responses or (iii) to habituate postural responses. The increase in size of the early postural response when a larger than actual platform amplitude was expected and decrease when a smaller one was expected was defined as a measure of set-dependent amplitude prediction. The suppression of the postural response when the same platform velocity was repeated was used as a measure of habituation. The correlation between the size of early postural responses and platform amplitudes when presented serially, but not randomly, tested the ability to scale the gain of postural responses based on prior experience. Results show that although cerebellar patients could predict perturbation amplitudes based on prior experience, they could not use this prediction to modify precisely the gain of responses. The ability to habituate the magnitude of postural responses was not affected by cerebellar lesions. Thus, the cerebellum might not be critical for predicting upcoming events or for habituating to repeated postural stimuli, although it is important for accurate tuning of response gain based on prediction.

  10. Investigation of the Seismic Nucleation Phase of Large Earthquakes Using Broadband Teleseismic Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkhart, Eryn Therese

    The dynamic motion of an earthquake begins abruptly, but is often initiated by a short interval of weak motion called the seismic nucleation phase (SNP). Ellsworth and Beroza [1995, 1996] concluded that the SNP was detectable in near-source records of 48 earthquakes with moment magnitude (Mw), ranging from 1.1 to 8.1. They found that the SNP accounted for approximately 0.5% of the total moment and 1/6 of the duration of the earthquake. Ji et al [2010] investigated the SNP of 19 earthquakes with Mw greater than 8.0 using teleseismic broadband data. This study concluded that roughly half of the earthquakes had detectable SNPs, inconsistent with the findings of Ellsworth and Beroza [1995]. Here 69 earthquakes of Mw 7.5-8.0 from 1994 to 2011 are further examined. The SNP is clearly detectable using teleseismic data in 32 events, with 35 events showing no nucleation phase, and 2 events had insufficient data to perform stacking, consistent with the previous analysis. Our study also reveals that the percentage of the SNP events is correlated with the focal mechanism and hypocenter depths. Strike-slip earthquakes are more likely to exhibit a clear SNP than normal or thrust earthquakes. Eleven of 14 strike-slip earthquakes (78.6%) have detectable NSPs. In contrast, only 16 of 40 (40%) thrust earthquakes have detectable SNPs. This percentage also became smaller for deep events (33% for events with hypocenter depth>250 km). To understand why certain thrust earthquakes have a visible SNP, we examined the sediment thickness, age, and angle of the subducting plate of all thrust earthquakes in the study. We found that thrust events with shallow (600 m) on the subducting plate tend to have clear SNPs. If the SNP can be better understood in the future, it may help seismologists better understand the rupture dynamics of large earthquakes. Potential applications of this work could attempt to predict the magnitude of an earthquake seconds before it begins by measuring the SNP, vastly

  11. Which behavioral, emotional and school problems in middle-childhood predict early sexual behavior?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkes, Alison; Waylen, Andrea; Sayal, Kapil; Heron, Jon; Henderson, Marion; Wight, Daniel; Macleod, John

    2014-04-01

    Mental health and school adjustment problems are thought to distinguish early sexual behavior from normative timing (16-18 years), but little is known about how early sexual behavior originates from these problems in middle-childhood. Existing studies do not allow for co-occurring problems, differences in onset and persistence, and there is no information on middle-childhood school adjustment in relationship to early sexual activity. This study examined associations between several middle-childhood problems and early sexual behavior, using a subsample (N = 4,739, 53 % female, 98 % white, mean age 15 years 6 months) from a birth cohort study, the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Adolescents provided information at age 15 on early sexual behavior (oral sex and/or intercourse) and sexual risk-taking, and at age 13 on prior risk involvement (sexual behavior, antisocial behavior and substance use). Information on hyperactivity/inattention, conduct problems, depressive symptoms, peer relationship problems, school dislike and school performance was collected in middle-childhood at Time 1 (6-8 years) and Time 2 (10-11 years). In agreement with previous research, conduct problems predicted early sexual behavior, although this was found only for persistent early problems. In addition, Time 2 school dislike predicted early sexual behavior, while peer relationship problems were protective. Persistent early school dislike further characterized higher-risk groups (early sexual behavior preceded by age 13 risk, or accompanied by higher sexual risk-taking). The study establishes middle-childhood school dislike as a novel risk factor for early sexual behavior and higher-risk groups, and the importance of persistent conduct problems. Implications for the identification of children at risk and targeted intervention are discussed, as well as suggestions for further research.

  12. Prediction of 28-day Compressive Strength of Concrete from Early Strength and Accelerated Curing Parameters

    OpenAIRE

    T.R. Neelakantan; S. Ramasundaram; Shanmugavel, R.; R. Vinoth

    2013-01-01

    Predicting 28-day compressive strength of concrete is an important research task for many years. In this study, concrete specimens were cured in two phases, initially at room temperature for a maximum of 30 h and later at a higher temperature for accelerated curing for a maximum of 3 h. Using the early strength obtained after the two-phase curing and the curing parameters, regression equations were developed to predict the 28-day compressive strength. For the accelerated curing (higher temper...

  13. 地震预警和烈度速报台网数据通信模式分析及建议%Analysis and Advice on Data Communication Mode in Earthquake Early Warning and Intensity Rapid Report Station Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    崔建文; 林国良; 刘琼仙; 杨黎薇; 徐硕

    2012-01-01

    可靠、快速的数据传输是建立地震预警系和烈度速报系统的基础.分析地震预警和烈度速报对通信的需求,基于现代通信技术,从稳定性、可靠性、有效性和抗毁需求出发,通过给出适用于地震预警系统和烈度速报系统的数据通信模式.就预警系统而言,目前正在发展中的SDH光纤通信模式是最佳的方案;烈度速报而言,可以采用3G移动通信并辅以北斗卫星短报文通信.%Reliable, fast data communication is the basis of earthquake early warning and intensity rapid report system. We analyze the communication needs of earthquake early warning and intensity rapid report, and give the data communication mode which is stable, reliable, effective and survivable for earthquake early warning and intensity rapid report system based on modern communication technology. SDH optical fiber communication mode being in the development is the best solution in the early warning system, however we could choose 3G mobile communication supplemented by Beidou satellite short message conmmunication in intensity rapid report system.

  14. Decoding the future from past experience: learning shapes predictions in early visual cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luft, Caroline D B; Meeson, Alan; Welchman, Andrew E; Kourtzi, Zoe

    2015-05-01

    Learning the structure of the environment is critical for interpreting the current scene and predicting upcoming events. However, the brain mechanisms that support our ability to translate knowledge about scene statistics to sensory predictions remain largely unknown. Here we provide evidence that learning of temporal regularities shapes representations in early visual cortex that relate to our ability to predict sensory events. We tested the participants' ability to predict the orientation of a test stimulus after exposure to sequences of leftward- or rightward-oriented gratings. Using fMRI decoding, we identified brain patterns related to the observers' visual predictions rather than stimulus-driven activity. Decoding of predicted orientations following structured sequences was enhanced after training, while decoding of cued orientations following exposure to random sequences did not change. These predictive representations appear to be driven by the same large-scale neural populations that encode actual stimulus orientation and to be specific to the learned sequence structure. Thus our findings provide evidence that learning temporal structures supports our ability to predict future events by reactivating selective sensory representations as early as in primary visual cortex.

  15. Predictive coding accelerates word recognition and learning in the early stages of language development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ylinen, Sari; Bosseler, Alexis; Junttila, Katja; Huotilainen, Minna

    2016-10-16

    The ability to predict future events in the environment and learn from them is a fundamental component of adaptive behavior across species. Here we propose that inferring predictions facilitates speech processing and word learning in the early stages of language development. Twelve- and 24-month olds' electrophysiological brain responses to heard syllables are faster and more robust when the preceding word context predicts the ending of a familiar word. For unfamiliar, novel word forms, however, word-expectancy violation generates a prediction error response, the strength of which significantly correlates with children's vocabulary scores at 12 months. These results suggest that predictive coding may accelerate word recognition and support early learning of novel words, including not only the learning of heard word forms but also their mapping to meanings. Prediction error may mediate learning via attention, since infants' attention allocation to the entire learning situation in natural environments could account for the link between prediction error and the understanding of word meanings. On the whole, the present results on predictive coding support the view that principles of brain function reported across domains in humans and non-human animals apply to language and its development in the infant brain. A video abstract of this article can be viewed at: http://hy.fi/unitube/video/e1cbb495-41d8-462e-8660-0864a1abd02c. [Correction added on 27 January 2017, after first online publication: The video abstract link was added.]. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. 2009年4月6日意大利拉奎拉地震的前震及其预测意义%Light of Earthquake Prediction: Shocks Before the L'Aquila Earthquake of April 6, 2009

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李丽; 陈颙

    2009-01-01

    本文通过分析2009年1月1日~4月5日意大利及周边地区中小地震的时空分布特征发现,2009年4月6日意大利拉奎拉地震是一次具有明显前震的中强地震.震前中小地震从频度和强度上在时间和空间向未来震中聚集的现象,为探索利用前震序列进行地震预测提供了较好的研究案例.%The earthquakes occurring within Italy and its boundary areas from January 1 to April 5, 2009, show that the main earthquake at L'Aquila Earthquake on the morning of April 6, 2009 is a middle to strong earthquake with significant foreshocks. The enhancement of frequency and intensity of small earthquakes and their concentrating tendency to the future main shock have provided a comprehensive case for digging methods for earthquake forecasting with foreshocks.

  17. Radon Monitoring in Soil Gas and Ground Water for Earthquake Prediction Studies in North West Himalayas, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Surinder Singh

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Continuous monitoring of soil gas radon at Sarol and the daily monitoring of radon concentration in water at Banikhet is carried out in Chamba valley of North West Himalayas, India ¡§a well known seismic zone¡¨ to study the correlation of radon anomalies in relation to seismic activities of the region. Radon monitoring in soil gas was carried out by using Barasol probe manufactured by Algade France and the radon content in water was recorded using RAD7 radon monitoring system of Durridge Company, USA. The effect of meteorological parameters viz. temperature and pressure on soil gas radon emission has been studied. Correlation coefficient has been calculated between radon in soil gas, soil temperature and soil pressure. The radon anomalies observed in the region have been correlated with the seismic events in the magnitude range 2.2 to 5.0 recorded by Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology Dehradun in NW Himalayan. Empirical equations between earthquake magnitude, epicentral distance and precursor time were examined, and respective constants were determined.

  18. Predicting the liquefaction phenomena from shear velocity profiling: Empirical approach to 6.3 Mw, May 2006 Yogyakarta earthquake

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartantyo, Eddy, E-mail: hartantyo@ugm.ac.id [PhD student, Physics Department, FMIPA, UGM. Sekip Utara Yogyakarta 55281 Indonesia (Indonesia); Brotopuspito, Kirbani S.; Sismanto; Waluyo [Geophysics Laboratory, FMIPA, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Sekip Utara Yogyakarta 55281 (Indonesia)

    2015-04-24

    The liquefactions phenomena have been reported after a shocking 6.5Mw earthquake hit Yogyakarta province in the morning at 27 May 2006. Several researchers have reported the damage, casualties, and soil failure due to the quake, including the mapping and analyzing the liquefaction phenomena. Most of them based on SPT test. The study try to draw the liquefaction susceptibility by means the shear velocity profiling using modified Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves (MASW). This paper is a preliminary report by using only several measured MASW points. The study built 8-channel seismic data logger with 4.5 Hz geophones for this purpose. Several different offsets used to record the high and low frequencies of surface waves. The phase-velocity diagrams were stacked in the frequency domain rather than in time domain, for a clearer and easier dispersion curve picking. All codes are implementing in Matlab. From these procedures, shear velocity profiling was collected beneath each geophone’s spread. By mapping the minimum depth of shallow water table, calculating PGA with soil classification, using empirical formula for saturated soil weight from shear velocity profile, and calculating CRR and CSR at every depth, the liquefaction characteristic can be identify in every layer. From several acquired data, a liquefiable potential at some depth below water table was obtained.

  19. Earthquake impact scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wald, D.J.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Marano, K.D.; Bausch, D.

    2011-01-01

    With the advent of the USGS prompt assessment of global earthquakes for response (PAGER) system, which rapidly assesses earthquake impacts, U.S. and international earthquake responders are reconsidering their automatic alert and activation levels and response procedures. To help facilitate rapid and appropriate earthquake response, an Earthquake Impact Scale (EIS) is proposed on the basis of two complementary criteria. On the basis of the estimated cost of damage, one is most suitable for domestic events; the other, on the basis of estimated ranges of fatalities, is generally more appropriate for global events, particularly in developing countries. Simple thresholds, derived from the systematic analysis of past earthquake impact and associated response levels, are quite effective in communicating predicted impact and response needed after an event through alerts of green (little or no impact), yellow (regional impact and response), orange (national-scale impact and response), and red (international response). Corresponding fatality thresholds for yellow, orange, and red alert levels are 1, 100, and 1,000, respectively. For damage impact, yellow, orange, and red thresholds are triggered by estimated losses reaching $1M, $100M, and $1B, respectively. The rationale for a dual approach to earthquake alerting stems from the recognition that relatively high fatalities, injuries, and homelessness predominate in countries in which local building practices typically lend themselves to high collapse and casualty rates, and these impacts lend to prioritization for international response. In contrast, financial and overall societal impacts often trigger the level of response in regions or countries in which prevalent earthquake resistant construction practices greatly reduce building collapse and resulting fatalities. Any newly devised alert, whether economic- or casualty-based, should be intuitive and consistent with established lexicons and procedures. Useful alerts should

  20. Earthquake Hazard Assessment: Basics of Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir

    2016-04-01

    Seismic hazard assessment (SHA) is not an easy task that implies a delicate application of statistics to data of limited size and different accuracy. Earthquakes follow the Unified Scaling Law that generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter relationship by taking into account naturally fractal distribution of their sources. Moreover, earthquakes, including the great and mega events, are clustered in time and their sequences have irregular recurrence intervals. Furthermore, earthquake related observations are limited to the recent most decades (or centuries in just a few rare cases). Evidently, all this complicates reliable assessment of seismic hazard and associated risks. Making SHA claims, either termless or time dependent (so-called t-DASH), quantitatively probabilistic in the frames of the most popular objectivists' viewpoint on probability requires a long series of "yes/no" trials, which cannot be obtained without an extended rigorous testing of the method predictions against real observations. Therefore, we reiterate the necessity and possibility of applying the modified tools of Earthquake Prediction Strategies, in particular, the Error Diagram, introduced by G.M. Molchan in early 1990ies for evaluation of SHA, and the Seismic Roulette null-hypothesis as a measure of the alerted space. The set of errors, i.e. the rates of failure and of the alerted space-time volume, compared to those obtained in the same number of random guess trials permits evaluating the SHA method effectiveness and determining the optimal choice of the parameters in regard to specified cost-benefit functions. These and other information obtained in such a testing supplies us with a realistic estimate of confidence in SHA results and related recommendations on the level of risks for decision making in regard to engineering design, insurance, and emergency management. These basics of SHA evaluation are exemplified in brief with a few examples, which analyses in more detail are given in a poster of

  1. Linguistic and Spatial Skills Predict Early Arithmetic Development via Counting Sequence Knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiao; Koponen, Tuire; Räsänen, Pekka; Aunola, Kaisa; Lerkkanen, Marja-Kristiina; Nurmi, Jari-Erik

    2014-01-01

    Utilizing a longitudinal sample of Finnish children (ages 6-10), two studies examined how early linguistic (spoken vs. written) and spatial skills predict later development of arithmetic, and whether counting sequence knowledge mediates these associations. In Study 1 (N = 1,880), letter knowledge and spatial visualization, measured in…

  2. Role of Parent Literacy and Numeracy Expectations and Activities in Predicting Early Numeracy Skills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segers, Eliane; Kleemans, Tijs; Verhoeven, Ludo

    2015-01-01

    The home numeracy environment (i.e., parents' numeracy expectations and activities), is related to early numeracy in young children. As recent studies have shown that both cognitive and linguistic factors play an important role in predicting numeracy development, it may be assumed that rather than the home "numeracy" environment, the…

  3. Role of parent literacy and numeracy expectations and activities in predicting early numeracy skills

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Segers, P.C.J.; Kleemans, M.A.J.; Verhoeven, L.T.W.

    2015-01-01

    The home numeracy environment (i.e., parents' numeracy expectations and activities), is related to early numeracy in young children. As recent studies have shown that both cognitive and linguistic factors play an important role in predicting numeracy development, it may be assumed that rather than t

  4. Perspective of NIRS measurements early post mortem for prediction of pork quality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoving, A.H.; Vedder, H.W.; Merks, J.W.M.; Klein, W.J.H.; Reimert, H.G.M.; Frankhuizen, R.; Broek, van den W.H.A.M.; Lambooij, E.

    2005-01-01

    The potential of near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) measurements early post mortem was investigated to predict ultimate drip loss, colour, tenderness and intra-muscular fat of pork. Three locations (M. longissimus thoracis, M. longissimus lumborum and M. semimembranosus) in 102 pig carcasses were tes

  5. Early Prediction of Outcome of Activities of Daily Living After Stroke A Systematic Review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veerbeek, Janne M.; Kwakkel, Gert; van Wegen, Erwin E. H.; Ket, Johannes C. F.; Heymans, Martijn W.

    Background and Purpose-Knowledge about robust and unbiased factors that predict outcome of activities of daily living (ADL) is paramount in stroke management. This review investigates the methodological quality of prognostic studies in the early poststroke phase for final ADL to identify variables

  6. Predicting Early School Achievement with the EDI: A Longitudinal Population-Based Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forget-Dubois, Nadine; Lemelin, Jean-Pascal; Boivin, Michel; Dionne, Ginette; Seguin, Jean R.; Vitaro, Frank; Tremblay, Richard E.

    2007-01-01

    School readiness tests are significant predictors of early school achievement. Measuring school readiness on a large scale would be necessary for the implementation of intervention programs at the community level. However, assessment of school readiness is costly and time consuming. This study assesses the predictive value of a school readiness…

  7. Early Family System Types Predict Children's Emotional Attention Biases at School Age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindblom, Jallu; Peltola, Mikko J.; Vänskä, Mervi; Hietanen, Jari K.; Laakso, Anu; Tiitinen, Aila; Tulppala, Maija; Punamäki, Raija-Leena

    2017-01-01

    The family environment shapes children's social information processing and emotion regulation. Yet, the long-term effects of early family systems have rarely been studied. This study investigated how family system types predict children's attentional biases toward facial expressions at the age of 10 years. The participants were 79 children from…

  8. Early Prediction of Outcome of Activities of Daily Living After Stroke A Systematic Review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veerbeek, Janne M.; Kwakkel, Gert; van Wegen, Erwin E. H.; Ket, Johannes C. F.; Heymans, Martijn W.

    2011-01-01

    Background and Purpose-Knowledge about robust and unbiased factors that predict outcome of activities of daily living (ADL) is paramount in stroke management. This review investigates the methodological quality of prognostic studies in the early poststroke phase for final ADL to identify variables t

  9. Early Gesture Predicts Language Delay in Children with Pre- Or Perinatal Brain Lesions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, Eve; Levine, Susan C.; Goldin-Meadow, Susan

    2010-01-01

    Does early gesture use predict later productive and receptive vocabulary in children with pre- or perinatal unilateral brain lesions (PL)? Eleven children with PL were categorized into 2 groups based on whether their gesture at 18 months was within or below the range of typically developing (TD) children. Children with PL whose gesture was within…

  10. The value of cystography in the prediction of early urinary continence after radical prostatectomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Huei Chang

    2016-12-01

    Conclusion: Postoperative cystography can provide information on VUAL and bladder neck condition which can predict recovery of urinary continence after radical prostatectomy. A higher VUAL and bladder neck closure were associated with a higher rate of early recovery of urinary continence.

  11. Early Family System Types Predict Children's Emotional Attention Biases at School Age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindblom, Jallu; Peltola, Mikko J.; Vänskä, Mervi; Hietanen, Jari K.; Laakso, Anu; Tiitinen, Aila; Tulppala, Maija; Punamäki, Raija-Leena

    2017-01-01

    The family environment shapes children's social information processing and emotion regulation. Yet, the long-term effects of early family systems have rarely been studied. This study investigated how family system types predict children's attentional biases toward facial expressions at the age of 10 years. The participants were 79 children from…

  12. Earthquake Hazards Program: Earthquake Scenarios

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — A scenario represents one realization of a potential future earthquake by assuming a particular magnitude, location, and fault-rupture geometry and estimating...

  13. Predicting heat flow in the 2001 Bhuj earthquake (Mw=7.7 region of Kachchh (Western India, using an inverse recurrence method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. P. Dimri

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Terrestrial heat flow is considered an important parameter in studying the regional geotectonic and geodynamic evolutionary history of any region. However, its distribution is still very uneven. There is hardly any information available for many geodynamically important areas. In the present study, we provide a methodology to predict the surface heat flow in areas, where detailed seismic information such as depth to the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary (LAB and crustal structure is known. The tool was first tested in several geotectonic blocks around the world and then used to predict the surface heat flow for the 2001 Bhuj earthquake region of Kachchh, India, which has been seismically active since historical times and where aftershock activity is still continuing nine years after the 2001 main event. Surface heat flow for this region is estimated to be about 61.3 mW m−2. Beneath this region, heat flow input from the mantle as well as the temperatures at the Moho are quite high at around 44 mW m−2 and 630 °C, respectively, possibly due to thermal restructuring of the underlying crust and mantle lithosphere. In absence of conventional data, the proposed tool may be used to estimate a first order heat flow in continental regions for geotectonic studies, as it is also unaffected by the subsurface climatic perturbations that percolate even up to 2000 m depth.

  14. Neonatal imitation and early social experience predict gaze following abilities in infant monkeys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Elizabeth A; Miller, Grace M; Ferrari, Pier F; Suomi, Stephen J; Paukner, Annika

    2016-02-01

    Individuals vary in their social skills and motivation, the causes of which remain largely unknown. Here we investigated whether an individual's propensity to interact with others measured within days after birth, and differences in infants' early social environment, may predict a later social skill. Specifically, we tested whether neonatal imitation--newborns' capacity to match modelled actions--and social experience in the first months of life predict gaze following (directing attention to locations where others look), in infant macaques (Macaca mulatta; n = 119). Facial gesture imitation in the first week of life predicted gaze following at 7 months of age. Imitators were better at gaze following than non-imitators, suggesting neonatal imitation may be an early marker predicting socio-cognitive functioning. In addition, infants with rich social environments outperformed infants with less socialization, suggesting early social experiences also support the development of infants' gaze following competence. The present study offers compelling evidence that an individual difference present from birth predicts a functional social cognitive skill in later infancy. In addition, this foundational skill--gaze following--is plastic, and can be improved through social interactions, providing infants with a strong foundation for later social interaction and learning.

  15. Analysis, prediction, and case studies of early-age cracking in bridge decks

    Science.gov (United States)

    ElSafty, Adel; Graeff, Matthew K.; El-Gharib, Georges; Abdel-Mohti, Ahmed; Mike Jackson, N.

    2016-06-01

    Early-age cracking can adversely affect strength, serviceability, and durability of concrete bridge decks. Early age is defined as the period after final setting, during which concrete properties change rapidly. Many factors can cause early-age bridge deck cracking including temperature change, hydration, plastic shrinkage, autogenous shrinkage, and drying shrinkage. The cracking may also increase the effect of freeze and thaw cycles and may lead to corrosion of reinforcement. This research paper presents an analysis of causes and factors affecting early-age cracking. It also provides a tool developed to predict the likelihood and initiation of early-age cracking of concrete bridge decks. Understanding the concrete properties is essential so that the developed tool can accurately model the mechanisms contributing to the cracking of concrete bridge decks. The user interface of the implemented computer Excel program enables the user to input the properties of the concrete being monitored. The research study and the developed spreadsheet were used to comprehensively investigate the issue of concrete deck cracking. The spreadsheet is designed to be a user-friendly calculation tool for concrete mixture proportioning, temperature prediction, thermal analysis, and tensile cracking prediction. The study also provides review and makes recommendations on the deck cracking based mainly on the Florida Department of Transportation specifications and Structures Design Guidelines, and Bridge Design Manuals of other states. The results were also compared with that of other commercially available software programs that predict early-age cracking in concrete slabs, concrete pavement, and reinforced concrete bridge decks. The outcome of this study can identify a set of recommendations to limit the deck cracking problem and maintain a longer service life of bridges.

  16. Using Peer Injunctive Norms to Predict Early Adolescent Cigarette Smoking Intentions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaleski, Adam C; Aloise-Young, Patricia A

    2013-06-01

    The present study investigated the importance of the perceived injunctive norm to predict early adolescent cigarette smoking intentions. A total of 271 6(th) graders completed a survey that included perceived prevalence of friend smoking (descriptive norm), perceptions of friends' disapproval of smoking (injunctive norm), and future smoking intentions. Participants also listed their five best friends, in which the actual injunctive norm was calculated. Results showed that smoking intentions were significantly correlated with the perceived injunctive norm but not with the actual injunctive norm. Secondly, the perceived injunctive norm predicted an additional 3.4% of variance in smoking intentions above and beyond the perceived descriptive norm. These results demonstrate the importance of the perceived injunctive norm in predicting early adolescent smoking intentions.

  17. Method for simulating predictive control of building systems operation in the early stages of building design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Steffen; Svendsen, Svend

    2011-01-01

    A method for simulating predictive control of building systems operation in the early stages of building design is presented. The method uses building simulation based on weather forecasts to predict whether there is a future heating or cooling requirement. This information enables the thermal...... control systems of the building to respond proactively to keep the operational temperature within the thermal comfort range with the minimum use of energy. The method is implemented in an existing building simulation tool designed to inform decisions in the early stages of building design through...... parametric analysis. This enables building designers to predict the performance of the method and include it as a part of the solution space. The method furthermore facilitates the task of configuring appropriate building systems control schemes in the tool, and it eliminates time consuming manual...

  18. The EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory and allied networks, the makings of nascent Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning System in Western North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattioli, Glen; Mencin, David; Hodgkinson, Kathleen; Meertens, Charles; Phillips, David; Blume, Fredrick; Berglund, Henry; Fox, Otina; Feaux, Karl

    2016-04-01

    The NSF-funded GAGE Facility, managed by UNAVCO, operates approximately ~1300 GNSS stations distributed across North and Central America and in the circum-Caribbean. Following community input starting in 2011 from several workshops and associated reports,UNAVCO has been exploring ways to increase the capability and utility of the geodetic resources under its management to improve our understanding in diverse areas of geophysics including properties of seismic, volcanic, magmatic and tsunami deformation sources. Networks operated by UNAVCO for the NSF have the potential to profoundly transform our ability to rapidly characterize events, provide rapid characterization and warning, as well as improve hazard mitigation and response. Specific applications currently under development include earthquake early warning, tsunami early warning, and tropospheric modeling with university, commercial, non-profit and government partners on national and international scales. In the case of tsunami early warning, for example, an RT-GNSS network can provide multiple inputs in an operational system starting with rapid assessment of earthquake sources and associated deformation, which leads to the initial model of ocean forcing and tsunami generation. In addition, terrestrial GNSScan provide direct measurements of the tsunami through the associated traveling ionospheric disturbance from several 100's of km away as they approach the shoreline,which can be used to refine tsunami inundation models. Any operational system like this has multiple communities that rely on a pan-Pacific real-time open data set. Other scientific and operational applications for high-rate GPS include glacier and ice sheet motions, tropospheric modeling, and better constraints on the dynamics of space weather. Combining existing data sets and user communities, for example seismic data and tide gauge observations, with GNSS and Met data products has proven complicated because of issues related to metadata

  19. Analysis of cardiovascular oscillations: A new approach to the early prediction of pre-eclampsia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malberg, H.; Bauernschmitt, R.; Voss, A.; Walther, T.; Faber, R.; Stepan, H.; Wessel, N.

    2007-03-01

    Pre-eclampsia (PE) is a serious disorder with high morbidity and mortality occurring during pregnancy; 3%-5% of all pregnant women are affected. Early prediction is still insufficient in clinical practice. Although most pre-eclamptic patients show pathological uterine perfusion in the second trimester, this parameter has a positive predictive accuracy of only 30%, which makes it unsuitable for early, reliable prediction. The study is based on the hypothesis that alterations in cardiovascular regulatory behavior can be used to predict PE. Ninety-six pregnant women in whom Doppler investigation detected perfusion disorders of the uterine arteries were included in the study. Twenty-four of these pregnant women developed PE after the 30th week of gestation. During pregnancy, additional several noninvasive continuous blood pressure recordings were made over 30 min under resting conditions by means of a finger cuff. The time series extracted of systolic as well as diastolic beat-to-beat pressures and the heart rate were studied by variability and coupling analysis to find predictive factors preceding genesis of the disease. In the period between the 18th and 26th weeks of pregnancy, three special variability and baroreflex parameters were able to predict PE several weeks before clinical manifestation. Discriminant function analysis of these parameters was able to predict PE with a sensitivity and specificity of 87.5% and a positive predictive value of 70%. The combined clinical assessment of uterine perfusion and cardiovascular variability demonstrates the best current prediction several weeks before clinical manifestation of PE.

  20. Modeling earthquake indexes derived from the earthquake warning system upon the planet earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yong

    2010-12-01

    By studying the correlation between historical earthquake data and the distributional characteristics of parameters of solid earth tides in the earthquake epicenter, we are able to design a forecasting function of earthquake probability. We put forward a design method for the Earthquake Warning System. The model could theoretically simulate and be used to predict the probability of strong earthquakes that could occur anywhere at any time. In addition, the system could also conveniently obtain global or partial Modeling Earthquake Indexes to finally combine the precise pointing prediction and forecast of partial indexes. The literature quotes global data values, provided by NEIC, of 1544 M ⩾ 6.5 earthquakes. It also gives examples of instantaneous earthquake indexes of the whole world and Taiwan Area on 1st January 2010, UT=0:00 and the average earthquake index near the Taiwan Area. According to the 10-year pointing prediction of strong earthquakes in San Francisco, the literature provides the average earthquake index on 24th June 2015 (± 15 days), in its neighborhood.

  1. Modeling earthquake indexes derived from the earthquake warning system upon the planet earth

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    By studying the correlation between historical earthquake data and the distributional characteristics of parameters of solid earth tides in the earthquake epicenter, we are able to design a forecasting function of earthquake probability. We put forward a design method for the Earthquake Warning System. The model could theoretically simulate and be used to predict the probability of strong earthquakes that could occur anywhere at any time. In addition, the system could also conveniently obtain global or partial Modeling Earthquake Indexes to finally combine the precise pointing prediction and forecast of partial indexes. The literature quotes global data values, provided by NEIC, of 1544 M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes. It also gives examples of instantaneous earthquake indexes of the whole world and Taiwan Area on 1st January 2010, UT=0:00 and the average earthquake index near the Taiwan Area. According to the 10-year pointing prediction of strong earthquakes in San Francisco, the literature provides the average earthquake index on 24th June 2015 (± 15 days), in its neighborhood.

  2. Review of Research Progresses on the Science of Earthquake Underground Fluid in China During the Last 40 Years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu Yaowei

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a review of the development of scientific research and practice of earthquake underground fluid in China during the last 40 years,summaries early constructive research and primary achievements in this field.The science of earthquake underground fluid is closely correlated with earthquake monitoring and prediction,such as innovations in observation techniques and theoretical methods,and analysis of diversified parameters and research into predictive methods.The historical evolution of observation networks for underground fluid indicates that the demand for strong earthquake monitoring and prediction has become the driving force of the construction and development of the observation network.The development of observation techniques represents the trend based on multiform measurement,syntheses,and digitization.The study results of underground fluid theory and precursory mechanisms suggest that the precursory model,numerical simulation and in-door or field experimental research are the main technological approaches promoting innovation.Research results of earthquake forecast methods use physics based forecast techniques and the ideas of cornbination of usabifity and scientific advance.It has been proved by forecast practice that studying underground fluid is a very important subject in earthquake prediction on the Chinese mainland.Finally,the primary work and technical criterion on underground fluid are introduced,and some major scientific issues and development trends in different historical stages are summarized.

  3. Summary of the GK15 ground‐motion prediction equation for horizontal PGA and 5% damped PSA from shallow crustal continental earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graizer, Vladimir;; Kalkan, Erol

    2016-01-01

    We present a revised ground‐motion prediction equation (GMPE) for computing medians and standard deviations of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 5% damped pseudospectral acceleration (PSA) response ordinates of the horizontal component of randomly oriented ground motions to be used for seismic‐hazard analyses and engineering applications. This GMPE is derived from the expanded Next Generation Attenuation (NGA)‐West 1 database (see Data and Resources; Chiou et al., 2008). The revised model includes an anelastic attenuation term as a function of quality factor (Q0) to capture regional differences in far‐source (beyond 150 km) attenuation, and a new frequency‐dependent sedimentary‐basin scaling term as a function of depth to the 1.5  km/s shear‐wave velocity isosurface to improve ground‐motion predictions at sites located on deep sedimentary basins. The new Graizer–Kalkan 2015 (GK15) model, developed to be simple, is applicable for the western United States and other similar shallow crustal continental regions in active tectonic environments for earthquakes with moment magnitudes (M) 5.0–8.0, distances 0–250 km, average shear‐wave velocities in the upper 30 m (VS30) 200–1300  m/s, and spectral periods (T) 0.01–5 s. Our aleatory variability model captures interevent (between‐event) variability, which decreases with magnitude and increases with distance. The mixed‐effect residuals analysis reveals that the GK15 has no trend with respect to the independent predictor parameters. Compared to our 2007–2009 GMPE, the PGA values are very similar, whereas spectral ordinates predicted are larger at T<0.2  s and they are smaller at longer periods.

  4. How Much Can the Total Aleatory Variability of Empirical Ground Motion Prediction Equations Be Reduced Using Physics-Based Earthquake Simulations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, T. H.; Wang, F.; Graves, R. W.; Callaghan, S.; Olsen, K. B.; Cui, Y.; Milner, K. R.; Juve, G.; Vahi, K.; Yu, J.; Deelman, E.; Gill, D.; Maechling, P. J.

    2015-12-01

    Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) in common use predict the logarithmic intensity of ground shaking, lnY, as a deterministic value, lnYpred(x), conditioned on a set of explanatory variables x plus a normally distributed random variable with a standard deviation σT. The latter accounts for the unexplained variability in the ground motion data used to calibrate the GMPE and is typically 0.5-0.7 in natural log units. Reducing this residual or "aleatory" variability is a high priority for seismic hazard analysis, because the probabilities of exceedance at high Y values go up rapidly with σT. adding costs to the seismic design of critical facilities to account for the prediction uncertainty. However, attempts to decrease σT by incorporating more explanatory variables to the GMPEs have been largely unsuccessful (e.g., Strasser et al., SRL, 2009). An alternative is to employ physics-based earthquake simulations that properly account for source directivity, basin effects, directivity-basin coupling, and other 3D complexities. We have explored the theoretical limits of this approach through an analysis of large (> 108) ensembles of 3D synthetic seismograms generated for the Los Angeles region by SCEC's CyberShake project using the new tool of averaging-based factorization (ABF, Wang & Jordan, BSSA, 2014). The residual variance obtained by applying GMPEs to the CyberShake dataset matches the frequency-dependence of σT obtained for the GMPE calibration dataset. The ABF analysis allows us to partition this variance into uncorrelated components representing source, path, and site effects. We show that simulations can potentially reduce σT by about one-third, which could lower the exceedance probabilities for high hazard levels at fixed x by orders of magnitude. Realizing this gain in forecasting probability would have a broad impact on risk-reduction strategies, especially for critical facilities such as large dams, nuclear power plants, and energy transportation

  5. Predicting addiction potential on the basis of early traumatic events, dissociative experiences, and suicide ideation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sajadi, Seyedeh Fatemeh; Hajjari, Zahra; Zargar, Yadollah; Mehrabizade Honarmand, Mahnaz; Arshadi, Nasrin

    2014-12-01

    There is a great deal of medical literature suggesting that substance use disorder is a serious clinical concern, affecting general population and associated with considerable economic, societal, and personal costs. This study sought to clarify the relationship between early trauma, dissociative experience, and suicide ideation as predictive factors of active and passive addiction potential (A/PAP) in high-school students. Three hundred students with the mean age of 15.72 y were selected via multistage random sampling. All participants were asked to complete Iranian addiction potential scale, early trauma inventory, dissociative experiences scale, and Beck's suicide ideation scale. Analyzing data was done using canonical correlation. Structural coefficients showed that the pattern of high scores in A/PAP correlates with the pattern of high scores in early trauma, dissociative experience and suicide ideation. The findings of the study showed that the combination of low A/PAP can probably decrease the likelihood of early trauma, dissociative experience and suicide ideation. Early trauma, dissociative experience, and suicide ideation can predict A/PAP and explain the considerable variance of survival index.

  6. Early improvement with pregabalin predicts endpoint response in patients with generalized anxiety disorder: an integrated and predictive data analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montgomery, Stuart A; Lyndon, Gavin; Almas, Mary; Whalen, Ed; Prieto, Rita

    2017-01-01

    Generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), a common mental disorder, has several treatment options including pregabalin. Not all patients respond to treatment; quickly determining which patients will respond is an important treatment goal. Patient-level data were pooled from nine phase II and III randomized, double-blind, short-term, placebo-controlled trials of pregabalin for the treatment of GAD. Efficacy outcomes included the change from baseline in the Hamilton Anxiety Scale (HAM-A) total score and psychic and somatic subscales. Predictive modelling assessed baseline characteristics and early clinical responses to determine those predictive of clinical improvement at endpoint. A total of 2155 patients were included in the analysis (1447 pregabalin, 708 placebo). Pregabalin significantly improved the HAM-A total score compared with the placebo at endpoint, treatment difference (95% confidence interval), -2.61 (-3.21 to -2.01), Ppredictive of an endpoint greater than or equal to 50% improvement in the HAM-A total score. Pregabalin is an effective treatment option for patients with GAD. Patients with early response to pregabalin are more likely to respond significantly at endpoint.

  7. Earthquake forewarning in the Cascadia region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomberg, Joan S.; Atwater, Brian F.; Beeler, Nicholas M.; Bodin, Paul; Davis, Earl; Frankel, Arthur; Hayes, Gavin P.; McConnell, Laura; Melbourne, Tim; Oppenheimer, David H.; Parrish, John G.; Roeloffs, Evelyn A.; Rogers, Gary D.; Sherrod, Brian; Vidale, John; Walsh, Timothy J.; Weaver, Craig S.; Whitmore, Paul M.

    2015-08-10

    This report, prepared for the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC), is intended as a step toward improving communications about earthquake hazards between information providers and users who coordinate emergency-response activities in the Cascadia region of the Pacific Northwest. NEPEC charged a subcommittee of scientists with writing this report about forewarnings of increased probabilities of a damaging earthquake. We begin by clarifying some terminology; a “prediction” refers to a deterministic statement that a particular future earthquake will or will not occur. In contrast to the 0- or 100-percent likelihood of a deterministic prediction, a “forecast” describes the probability of an earthquake occurring, which may range from >0 to 4 earthquakes on the plate interface north of the Mendocino region 

  8. Factors predicting persistence of early wheezing through childhood and adolescence: a systematic review of the literature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Martínez, Carlos E; Sossa-Briceño, Monica P; Castro-Rodriguez, Jose A

    2017-01-01

    Background For the early identification of persistent asthma symptoms among young children with recurrent wheezing, it would be helpful to identify all available studies that have identified at least one factor for predicting the persistence of early wheezing. The objective of the present study was to perform a systematic review of all studies that have identified factors that predict the persistence of symptoms among young patients with recurring wheezing. Methods A systematic review of relevant studies was conducted through searching in MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINHAL, and SCOPUS databases up to June 2016. Studies that identified predictors of persistence of wheezing illness among young children with recurrent wheezing were retrieved. Two independent reviewers screened the literature and extracted relevant data. Results The literature search returned 649 references, 619 of which were excluded due to their irrelevance. Five additional studies were identified from reference lists, and 35 studies were finally included in the review. Among all the identified predictors, the most frequently identified ones were the following: family asthma or atopy; personal history of atopic diseases; allergic sensitization early in life; and frequency, clinical pattern, or severity of wheezing/symptoms. Conclusion Parental asthma (especially maternal), parental allergy, eczema, allergic rhinitis, persistent wheezing, wheeze without colds, exercise-induced wheeze, severe wheezing episodes, allergic sensitization (especially polysensitization), eosinophils (blood or eosinophil cationic protein in nasal sample), and fraction of exhaled nitric oxide were risk factors predicting persistence of early wheezing through school age. All of them are included in conventional algorithms, for example, Asthma Predictive Index and its modifications, for predicting future asthma. PMID:28392707

  9. Source parameters of the major historical earthquakes in the Tien-Shan region from the late 19th to the early 20th century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulikova, Galina; Krüger, Frank

    2016-04-01

    The Tien-Shan is one of the largest mountain belts in the world. Its deformation is dominated by intermontane basins bounded by active thrust and reverse faulting. The Tien-Shan mountain belt is characterized by a very high rate of seismicity along its margins as well as within the Tien-Shan interior. The study area of the here presented work, the western part of the Tien-Shan region, is currently seismically active with small and moderate sized earthquakes. However, at the end of 19th beginning of 20th century, this region was struck by a remarkable series of large magnitude (M>7) earthquakes, two of them reached magnitude 8. These large earthquakes occurred before the global digital seismic network was installed and therefore were recorded only by analog seismic instruments. The processing of the analog is complicated especially due to the digitization of the records - a very time-consuming and delicate part. Therefore a special set of techniques is developed and modern methods are adapted for the digitized instrumental data analysis. Here presented study evaluates the impact of large magnitude M>7.0 earthquakes, in the Tien-Shan region, on the overall regional tectonics. It also investigates the accuracy of previously estimated source parameters for those earthquakes, which were mainly based on macroseismic observations, and re-estimate them based on the instrumental data. Ten strongest and most interesting historical earthquakes in Tien-Shan region are analyzed with in presented work. With the developed techniques, the source parameters of these major earthquakes are determined and their impact on the regional tectonics was investigated. The large magnitudes of the earthquakes are confirmed by instrumental data. The focal mechanisms of these earthquakes were determined providing evidence for responsible faults or fault systems.

  10. Early Prediction of Movie Box Office Success based on Wikipedia Activity Big Data

    CERN Document Server

    Mestyán, Márton; Kertész, János

    2012-01-01

    Use of socially generated "big data" to access information about collective states of the minds in human societies becomes a new paradigm in the emerging field of computational social science. One of the natural application of this would be prediction of the society's reaction to a new product in the sense of popularity and adoption rate. However, bridging between "real time monitoring" and "early predicting" remains as a big challenge. Here, we report on an endeavor to build a minimalistic predictive model for the financial success of movies based on collective activity data of online users. We show that the popularity of a movie could be predicted well in advance by measuring and analyzing the activity level of editors and viewers of the corresponding entry to the movie in Wikipedia, the well-known online encyclopedia.

  11. Early prediction of movie box office success based on Wikipedia activity big data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Márton Mestyán

    Full Text Available Use of socially generated "big data" to access information about collective states of the minds in human societies has become a new paradigm in the emerging field of computational social science. A natural application of this would be the prediction of the society's reaction to a new product in the sense of popularity and adoption rate. However, bridging the gap between "real time monitoring" and "early predicting" remains a big challenge. Here we report on an endeavor to build a minimalistic predictive model for the financial success of movies based on collective activity data of online users. We show that the popularity of a movie can be predicted much before its release by measuring and analyzing the activity level of editors and viewers of the corresponding entry to the movie in Wikipedia, the well-known online encyclopedia.

  12. Early Weight Gain Predicting Later Weight Gain Among Depot Medroxyprogesterone Acetate Users

    Science.gov (United States)

    LE, Yen-Chi L.; RAHMAN, Mahbubur; BERENSON, Abbey B.

    2009-01-01

    Objective To examine if early weight gain in depot medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA) users predicts continued excessive weight gain and to identify risk factors of early weight gain in DMPA users. Methods DMPA users (N=240) were assessed prior to initiating contraception and every 3 months for 36 months. Early weight gain was defined as over 5% baseline weight gain within 6 months of DMPA use. Mean weight gain at 6-month intervals was estimated based on early weight gain status (at or below 5% gain vs. above 5% gain). Multiple logistic and mixed-model regression analyses were used. Results About one-fourth of DMPA users had early weight gain. The mean weight gain of the at or below 5% group and above 5% group was 0.63 kg and 8.04 kg, 1.48 kg and 10.86 kg, and 2.49 kg and 11.08 kg after 12, 24, and 36 months (P < 0.001 at all observations), respectively. Early weight gainers also had a much steeper slope of weight gain over time than the regular weight gainers (0.35 kg/month vs. 0.08 kg/month, P < 0.001). Risk factors for early weight gain were: BMI less than 30 (OR 4.00, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.513 – 10.455), parity (OR 2.23, 95% CI: 1.040 – 4.761), and self-reported increased appetite after 6 months of DMPA use (OR 3.06, 95% CI: 1.505 – 6.214). Conclusion Most DMPA users who gain excessive weight experience more than a 5% weight increase within 6 months. These data help physicians predict who is at risk of excessive gain and counsel them appropriately. PMID:19622988

  13. How learning analytics can early predict under-achieving students in a blended medical education course.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saqr, Mohammed; Fors, Uno; Tedre, Matti

    2017-07-01

    Learning analytics (LA) is an emerging discipline that aims at analyzing students' online data in order to improve the learning process and optimize learning environments. It has yet un-explored potential in the field of medical education, which can be particularly helpful in the early prediction and identification of under-achieving students. The aim of this study was to identify quantitative markers collected from students' online activities that may correlate with students' final performance and to investigate the possibility of predicting the potential risk of a student failing or dropping out of a course. This study included 133 students enrolled in a blended medical course where they were free to use the learning management system at their will. We extracted their online activity data using database queries and Moodle plugins. Data included logins, views, forums, time, formative assessment, and communications at different points of time. Five engagement indicators were also calculated which would reflect self-regulation and engagement. Students who scored below 5% over the passing mark were considered to be potentially at risk of under-achieving. At the end of the course, we were able to predict the final grade with 63.5% accuracy, and identify 53.9% of at-risk students. Using a binary logistic model improved prediction to 80.8%. Using data recorded until the mid-course, prediction accuracy was 42.3%. The most important predictors were factors reflecting engagement of the students and the consistency of using the online resources. The analysis of students' online activities in a blended medical education course by means of LA techniques can help early predict underachieving students, and can be used as an early warning sign for timely intervention.

  14. The physics of an earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCloskey, John

    2008-03-01

    The Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 26 December 2004 (Boxing Day 2004) and its tsunami will endure in our memories as one of the worst natural disasters of our time. For geophysicists, the scale of the devastation and the likelihood of another equally destructive earthquake set out a series of challenges of how we might use science not only to understand the earthquake and its aftermath but also to help in planning for future earthquakes in the region. In this article a brief account of these efforts is presented. Earthquake prediction is probably impossible, but earth scientists are now able to identify particularly dangerous places for future events by developing an understanding of the physics of stress interaction. Having identified such a dangerous area, a series of numerical Monte Carlo simulations is described which allow us to get an idea of what the most likely consequences of a future earthquake are by modelling the tsunami generated by lots of possible, individually unpredictable, future events. As this article was being written, another earthquake occurred in the region, which had many expected characteristics but was enigmatic in other ways. This has spawned a series of further theories which will contribute to our understanding of this extremely complex problem.

  15. The predictive value of first day bilirubin levels for early discharged newborns.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MUSTAFA TOLGA ÜNSÜR

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Early discharge of newborns is essential because of social, economic an medical reasons in our area, but it increases readmission rates especially for hyperbilirubinemia. Hence, predicting the high risk neonates for subsequent hyperbilirubinemia is required. This study was designed to investigate which level of total serum bilirubin (TSB at the first day could be used to predict hyperbilirubinemia .Methods: The venous blood samples obtained from 300 newborns at post-partum 24±6 hours for blood group, direct coomb’s, TSB and direct bilirubin level (DBL. These newborns were followed up during 5- day and TSB and DBLwere detected in 90 newborns with jaundice again according to Kramer dermal zones at 120±6 hours of age.Results: In 23.3% of 90 newborns phototherapy was needed. The cut off value of TSB at the first day to define newborns at high risk for subsequent hyperbilirubinemia was 6.50 mg/dl with positive predictive value 19.75%, negative predictive value 97.72%. At that point sensitivity was 76.19%, specificity was 76.70%.Conclusion: The cut-off point of 6.5 mg/dl of TSB at the first day might be used to predict subsequent hyperbilirubinemia risk at healthy, full-term early discharged newborns as the test is economic and available in all healthcare units.

  16. Depth-resolved nanoscale nuclear architecture mapping for early prediction of cancer progression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uttam, Shikhar; Pham, Hoa V.; LaFace, Justin; Hartman, Douglas J.; Liu, Yang

    2016-03-01

    Effective management of patients who are at risk of developing invasive cancer is a primary challenge in early cancer detection. Techniques that can help establish clear-cut protocols for successful triaging of at-risk patients have the potential of providing critical help in improving patient care while simultaneously reducing patient cost. We have developed such a technique for early prediction of cancer progression that uses unstained tissue sections to provide depth-resolved nanoscale nuclear architecture mapping (nanoNAM) of heterogeneity in optical density alterations manifested in precancerous lesions during cancer progression. We present nanoNAM and its application to predicting cancer progression in a well-established mouse model of spontaneous carcinogenesis: ApcMin/+ mice.

  17. The predictive nature of individual differences in early associative learning and emerging social behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeb-Sutherland, Bethany C; Levitt, Pat; Fox, Nathan A

    2012-01-01

    Across the first year of life, infants achieve remarkable success in their ability to interact in the social world. The hierarchical nature of circuit and skill development predicts that the emergence of social behaviors may depend upon an infant's early abilities to detect contingencies, particularly socially-relevant associations. Here, we examined whether individual differences in the rate of associative learning at one month of age is an enduring predictor of social, imitative, and discriminative behaviors measured across the human infant's first year. One-month learning rate was predictive of social behaviors at 5, 9, and 12 months of age as well as face-evoked discriminative neural activity at 9 months of age. Learning was not related to general cognitive abilities. These results underscore the importance of early contingency learning and suggest the presence of a basic mechanism underlying the ontogeny of social behaviors.

  18. The predictive nature of individual differences in early associative learning and emerging social behavior.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bethany C Reeb-Sutherland

    Full Text Available Across the first year of life, infants achieve remarkable success in their ability to interact in the social world. The hierarchical nature of circuit and skill development predicts that the emergence of social behaviors may depend upon an infant's early abilities to detect contingencies, particularly socially-relevant associations. Here, we examined whether individual differences in the rate of associative learning at one month of age is an enduring predictor of social, imitative, and discriminative behaviors measured across the human infant's first year. One-month learning rate was predictive of social behaviors at 5, 9, and 12 months of age as well as face-evoked discriminative neural activity at 9 months of age. Learning was not related to general cognitive abilities. These results underscore the importance of early contingency learning and suggest the presence of a basic mechanism underlying the ontogeny of social behaviors.

  19. Earthquake engineering research: 1982

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Committee on Earthquake Engineering Research addressed two questions: What progress has research produced in earthquake engineering and which elements of the problem should future earthquake engineering pursue. It examined and reported in separate chapters of the report: Applications of Past Research, Assessment of Earthquake Hazard, Earthquake Ground Motion, Soil Mechanics and Earth Structures, Analytical and Experimental Structural Dynamics, Earthquake Design of Structures, Seismic Interaction of Structures and Fluids, Social and Economic Aspects, Earthquake Engineering Education, Research in Japan.

  20. Attention bias in earthquake-exposed survivors: an event-related potential study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yan; Kong, Fanchang; Han, Li; Najam Ul Hasan, Abbasi; Chen, Hong

    2014-12-01

    The Chinese Wenchuan earthquake, which happened on the 28th of May in 2008, may leave deep invisible scars in individuals. China has a large number of children and adolescents, who tend to be most vulnerable because they are in an early stage of human development and possible post-traumatic psychological distress may have a life-long consequence. Trauma survivors without post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) have received little attention in previous studies, especially in event-related potential (ERP) studies. We compared the attention bias to threat stimuli between the earthquake-exposed group and the control group in a masked version of the dot probe task. The target probe presented at the same space location consistent with earthquake-related words was the congruent trial, while in the space location of neutral words was the incongruent trial. Thirteen earthquake-exposed middle school students without PTSD and 13 matched controls were included in this investigation. The earthquake-exposed group showed significantly faster RTs to congruent trials than to incongruent trials. The earthquake-exposed group produced significantly shorter C1 and P1 latencies and larger C1, P1 and P2 amplitudes than the control group. In particular, enhanced P1 amplitude to threat stimuli was observed in the earthquake-exposed group. These findings are in agreement with the prediction that earthquake-exposed survivors have an attention bias to threat stimuli. The traumatic event had a much greater effect on earthquake-exposed survivors even if they showed no PTSD symptoms than individuals in the controls. These results will provide neurobiological evidences for effective intervention and prevention to post-traumatic mental problems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Early Yield Prediction Using Image Analysis of Apple Fruit and Tree Canopy Features with Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Cheng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available (1 Background: Since early yield prediction is relevant for resource requirements of harvesting and marketing in the whole fruit industry, this paper presents a new approach of using image analysis and tree canopy features to predict early yield with artificial neural networks (ANN; (2 Methods: Two back propagation neural network (BPNN models were developed for the early period after natural fruit drop in June and the ripening period, respectively. Within the same periods, images of apple cv. “Gala” trees were captured from an orchard near Bonn, Germany. Two sample sets were developed to train and test models; each set included 150 samples from the 2009 and 2010 growing season. For each sample (each canopy image, pixels were segmented into fruit, foliage, and background using image segmentation. The four features extracted from the data set for the canopy were: total cross-sectional area of fruits, fruit number, total cross-section area of small fruits, and cross-sectional area of foliage, and were used as inputs. With the actual weighted yield per tree as a target, BPNN was employed to learn their mutual relationship as a prerequisite to develop the prediction; (3 Results: For the developed BPNN model of the early period after June drop, correlation coefficients (R2 between the estimated and the actual weighted yield, mean forecast error (MFE, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE, and root mean square error (RMSE were 0.81, −0.05, 10.7%, 2.34 kg/tree, respectively. For the model of the ripening period, these measures were 0.83, −0.03, 8.9%, 2.3 kg/tree, respectively. In 2011, the two previously developed models were used to predict apple yield. The RMSE and R2 values between the estimated and harvested apple yield were 2.6 kg/tree and 0.62 for the early period (small, green fruit and improved near harvest (red, large fruit to 2.5 kg/tree and 0.75 for a tree with ca. 18 kg yield per tree. For further method verification, the cv.

  2. Development and Predictive Value of Early Vocalizations in Very-Low-Birth-Weight Children: A Longitudinal Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolt, Suvi; Lehtonen, Liisa; Haataja, Leena; Lapinleimu, Helena

    2012-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to analyze early vocalization development, the predictive value of this development in terms of later language skills, and possible gender difference in early vocalization development in a selected cohort of 32 very-low-birth-weight (VLBW) children and 35 full-term controls. The data on early vocalization…

  3. Does Trait Emotional Intelligence Predict Unique Variance in Early Career Success Beyond IQ and Personality?

    OpenAIRE

    Haro García, José Manuel de; Castejón Costa, Juan Luis

    2014-01-01

    In order to determine the contribution of emotional intelligence (EI) to career success, in this study, we analyzed the relationship between trait EI (TEI), general mental ability (GMA), the big five personality traits, and career success indicators, in a sample of 130 graduates who were in the early stages of their careers. Results from hierarchical regression analyses indicated that TEI, and especially its dimension “repair,” has incremental validity in predicting one of the career success ...

  4. Does Trait Emotional Intelligence Predict Unique Variance in Early Career Success Beyond IQ and Personality?

    OpenAIRE

    Haro García, José Manuel de; Castejón Costa, Juan Luis (coord.)

    2014-01-01

    In order to determine the contribution of emotional intelligence (EI) to career success, in this study, we analyzed the relationship between trait EI (TEI), general mental ability (GMA), the big five personality traits, and career success indicators, in a sample of 130 graduates who were in the early stages of their careers. Results from hierarchical regression analyses indicated that TEI, and especially its dimension “repair,” has incremental validity in predicting one of the career success ...

  5. Technique for Early Reliability Prediction of Software Components Using Behaviour Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Awad; N. A. Jawawi, Dayang; Adham Isa, Mohd; Imran Babar, Muhammad

    2016-01-01

    Behaviour models are the most commonly used input for predicting the reliability of a software system at the early design stage. A component behaviour model reveals the structure and behaviour of the component during the execution of system-level functionalities. There are various challenges related to component reliability prediction at the early design stage based on behaviour models. For example, most of the current reliability techniques do not provide fine-grained sequential behaviour models of individual components and fail to consider the loop entry and exit points in the reliability computation. Moreover, some of the current techniques do not tackle the problem of operational data unavailability and the lack of analysis results that can be valuable for software architects at the early design stage. This paper proposes a reliability prediction technique that, pragmatically, synthesizes system behaviour in the form of a state machine, given a set of scenarios and corresponding constraints as input. The state machine is utilized as a base for generating the component-relevant operational data. The state machine is also used as a source for identifying the nodes and edges of a component probabilistic dependency graph (CPDG). Based on the CPDG, a stack-based algorithm is used to compute the reliability. The proposed technique is evaluated by a comparison with existing techniques and the application of sensitivity analysis to a robotic wheelchair system as a case study. The results indicate that the proposed technique is more relevant at the early design stage compared to existing works, and can provide a more realistic and meaningful prediction. PMID:27668748

  6. Technique for Early Reliability Prediction of Software Components Using Behaviour Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Awad; N A Jawawi, Dayang; Adham Isa, Mohd; Imran Babar, Muhammad

    Behaviour models are the most commonly used input for predicting the reliability of a software system at the early design stage. A component behaviour model reveals the structure and behaviour of the component during the execution of system-level functionalities. There are various challenges related to component reliability prediction at the early design stage based on behaviour models. For example, most of the current reliability techniques do not provide fine-grained sequential behaviour models of individual components and fail to consider the loop entry and exit points in the reliability computation. Moreover, some of the current techniques do not tackle the problem of operational data unavailability and the lack of analysis results that can be valuable for software architects at the early design stage. This paper proposes a reliability prediction technique that, pragmatically, synthesizes system behaviour in the form of a state machine, given a set of scenarios and corresponding constraints as input. The state machine is utilized as a base for generating the component-relevant operational data. The state machine is also used as a source for identifying the nodes and edges of a component probabilistic dependency graph (CPDG). Based on the CPDG, a stack-based algorithm is used to compute the reliability. The proposed technique is evaluated by a comparison with existing techniques and the application of sensitivity analysis to a robotic wheelchair system as a case study. The results indicate that the proposed technique is more relevant at the early design stage compared to existing works, and can provide a more realistic and meaningful prediction.

  7. Financial crisis early-warning model of listed companies based on predicted value

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    To establish a financial early-warning model with high accuracy of discrimination and achieve the aim of long-term prediction, principal component analysis (PCA), Fisher discriminant, together with grey forecasting models are used at the same time. 110 A-share companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange are selected as research samples. And 10 extractive factors with 89.746% of all the original information are determined by applying PCA, which obtains the goal of dimension reduction without...

  8. Flood Forecast and Early Warning with High-Resolution Ensemble Rainfall from Numerical Weather Prediction Model

    OpenAIRE

    Yu, Wansik; NAKAKITA, Eiichi; Jung, Kwansue

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the applicability of ensemble forecasts of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model for flood forecasting. In this study, 10 km resolution ensemble rainfalls forecast and their downscaled forecasts of 2 km resolution were used in the hydrologic model as input data for flood forecasting and application of flood early warning. Ensemble data consists of 51 members and 48 hr forecast time. Ensemble outputs are verified spatially whether they can produce suitable rainfall p...

  9. Convective Scale Ensemble Prediction System in KMA for Early Warning of High Impact Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S.

    2016-12-01

    Economic and societal damages due to severe weather events have been increasing in association with the concentration of human and economic resources such as in metropolitan areas. Severe weather events are often associated with rapidly developing convective scale systems, which are strongly influenced by topography, land use, and urbanization, etc. In the forecast those kinds of severe weather events, the high resolution numerical model is crucial to predict these convective scale severe weather events. However, the NWP models have an inherent limitation in the predictability of atmospheric phenomena, especially in predicting the severe weather. It is partly due to the poor resolution and model physics and partly due to the uncertainty of meteorological events. Nowadays most operational centers are being asked to develop more effective early detection systems that can be used to reduce the risk associated with severe weather events. Furthermore, forecasters need to assess and quantify the risk of occurrence of rare but destructive events. Thus, a policy in KMA to provide the probabilistic information of the severe events in limited area using ensemble method was adapted to meets these needs of the effective early warning systems. Ensemble forecasting using finite members is one of the feasible methods to quantify possibilities of extreme severe weather events. The ensemble forecasting has proved to be a successful way of dealing with that kind of inherent uncertainty of weather and climate forecasts. In this study, the limited area ensemble prediction system (LENS) using the Unified Model (UM) in KMA was developed and evaluated for the warm season of 2015. The model domain covers the limited area over the Korean Peninsula. The high resolution(3-km) limited area ensemble prediction system showed beneficial probabilistic forecast skill in predicting the heavy precipitation events. The sensitive experiment to evaluate the impact of uncertainty in model physics on the

  10. More than a mere sequence: predictive processing of wh-dependencies in early bilinguals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kljajevic Vanja

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the present study was to determine whether early bilingual Basque-Spanish speakers, who acquired Spanish by the age of 5, comprehend Spanish wh-dependences as effortlessly as native Spanish speakers. Given that Basque and Spanish are structurally different languages, we hypothesized that predictive processing strategies from the first language (L1 would interfere with predictive processing strategies in the second language (L2. More specifically, since Basque overtly marks the semantic role of agent/subject position, whereas Spanish overtly marks the role of patient/object position, we looked at whether the difference in overt marking of semantic roles would affect comprehension of subject vs. object quien “who” and qué “which” direct and embedded questions as well as subject vs. object relative clauses introduced by qué. The main finding of the study is that overall early Basque-Spanish bilinguals needed more time for the comprehension of wh-dependencies in Spanish compared to native Spanish speakers, as indicated by statistically significant group differences in response times in 9 out of 10 conditions. The results of this exploratory study indicate that a difference in overt marking of semantic roles between the two languages affects the ease of processing of Spanish wh-dependencies in early Basque-Spanish bilinguals, interfering with their ability to make native-like predictions in L2.

  11. More than a mere sequence: predictive processing of wh-dependencies in early bilinguals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kljajevic, Vanja

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The purpose of the present study was to determine whether early bilingual Basque-Spanish speakers, who acquired Spanish by the age of 5, comprehend Spanish wh-dependences as effortlessly as native Spanish speakers. Given that Basque and Spanish are structurally different languages, we hypothesized that predictive processing strategies from the first language (L1) would interfere with predictive processing strategies in the second language (L2). More specifically, since Basque overtly marks the semantic role of agent/subject position, whereas Spanish overtly marks the role of patient/object position, we looked at whether the difference in overt marking of semantic roles would affect comprehension of subject vs. object quien “who” and qué “which” direct and embedded questions as well as subject vs. object relative clauses introduced by qué. The main finding of the study is that overall early Basque-Spanish bilinguals needed more time for the comprehension of wh-dependencies in Spanish compared to native Spanish speakers, as indicated by statistically significant group differences in response times in 9 out of 10 conditions. The results of this exploratory study indicate that a difference in overt marking of semantic roles between the two languages affects the ease of processing of Spanish wh-dependencies in early Basque-Spanish bilinguals, interfering with their ability to make native-like predictions in L2. PMID:28123832

  12. Imaging the high-frequency energy radiation process of a main shock and its early aftershock sequence: The case of the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawazaki, Kaoru; Enescu, Bogdan

    2014-06-01

    To understand the energy release process that operates at the end of the main shock rupture and start of the aftershock activity, we propose an inversion method that uses continuous high-frequency seismogram envelopes of the main shock and early aftershocks (i.e., events that occur at short times after the main shock). In our approach, the aftershock sequence is regarded as a continuous energy release process, rather than a discrete time series of events. To correct for the contribution of coda wave energy excited by multiple scattering, we use the theoretical envelope synthesized on the basis of the radiative transfer theory as a Green's function. The site amplification factors are corrected considering the conservation of energy flux and using the coda normalization method. The inverted temporal energy release rate for the 2008 MW 6.9 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake, Japan, decays following t-1.1, at the lapse time t of 40-900 s after the main shock origin time. This exponent of the decay rate is similar to the p value of the modified Omori law. The amount of estimated energy release is consistent with that calculated from the magnitude listed in the aftershock catalog. Although the uncertainty is large, the location of large energy release at the lapse times of 40-900 s approximately overlaps to that of the aftershocks, which surrounds the large energy release area during the main shock faulting. The maxima of the energy release rate normalized by the average decay rate distributes following a power law, similar to the Gutenberg-Richter law.

  13. Implementing a C++ Version of the Joint Seismic-Geodetic Algorithm for Finite-Fault Detection and Slip Inversion for Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, D. E.; Felizardo, C.; Minson, S. E.; Boese, M.; Langbein, J. O.; Guillemot, C.; Murray, J. R.

    2015-12-01

    The earthquake early warning (EEW) systems in California and elsewhere can greatly benefit from algorithms that generate estimates of finite-fault parameters. These estimates could significantly improve real-time shaking calculations and yield important information for immediate disaster response. Minson et al. (2015) determined that combining FinDer's seismic-based algorithm (Böse et al., 2012) with BEFORES' geodetic-based algorithm (Minson et al., 2014) yields a more robust and informative joint solution than using either algorithm alone. FinDer examines the distribution of peak ground accelerations from seismic stations and determines the best finite-fault extent and strike from template matching. BEFORES employs a Bayesian framework to search for the best slip inversion over all possible fault geometries in terms of strike and dip. Using FinDer and BEFORES together generates estimates of finite-fault extent, strike, dip, preferred slip, and magnitude. To yield the quickest, most flexible, and open-source version of the joint algorithm, we translated BEFORES and FinDer from Matlab into C++. We are now developing a C++ Application Protocol Interface for these two algorithms to be connected to the seismic and geodetic data flowing from the EEW system. The interface that is being developed will also enable communication between the two algorithms to generate the joint solution of finite-fault parameters. Once this interface is developed and implemented, the next step will be to run test seismic and geodetic data through the system via the Earthworm module, Tank Player. This will allow us to examine algorithm performance on simulated data and past real events.

  14. Amplified loci on chromosomes 8 and 17 predict early relapse in ER-positive breast cancers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erhan Bilal

    Full Text Available Adjuvant hormonal therapy is administered to all early stage ER+ breast cancers, and has led to significantly improved survival. Unfortunately, a subset of ER+ breast cancers suffer early relapse despite hormonal therapy. To identify molecular markers associated with early relapse in ER+ breast cancer, an outlier analysis method was applied to a published gene expression dataset of 268 ER+ early-stage breast cancers treated with tamoxifen alone. Increased expression of sets of genes that clustered in chromosomal locations consistent with the presence of amplicons at 8q24.3, 8p11.2, 17q12 (HER2 locus and 17q21.33-q25.1 were each found to be independent markers for early disease recurrence. Distant metastasis free survival (DMFS after 10 years for cases with any amplicon (DMFS = 56.1%, 95% CI = 48.3-63.9% was significantly lower (P = 0.0016 than cases without any of the amplicons (DMFS = 87%, 95% CI = 76.3% -97.7%. The association between presence of chromosomal amplifications in these regions and poor outcome in ER+ breast cancers was independent of histologic grade and was confirmed in independent clinical datasets. A separate validation using a FISH-based assay to detect the amplicons at 8q24.3, 8p11.2, and 17q21.33-q25.1 in a set of 36 early stage ER+/HER2- breast cancers treated with tamoxifen suggests that the presence of these amplicons are indeed predictive of early recurrence. We conclude that these amplicons may serve as prognostic markers of early relapse in ER+ breast cancer, and may identify novel therapeutic targets for poor prognosis ER+ breast cancers.

  15. Efficacy of first-trimester ultrasound parameters for prediction of early spontaneous abortion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Datta, Mamta Rath; Raut, Ankush

    2017-09-01

    To assess first-trimester ultrasound measurements for the prediction of early spontaneous abortion. In a prospective observational study in Jamshedpur, India, women with singleton pregnancies of 42-76 days were enrolled between November 2014 and April 2016. Inclusion criteria were spontaneous conception, embryonic cardiac activity, and regular menstrual cycle. Fetal crown-to-rump length (CRL), gestational sac diameter (GSD), yolk sac diameter (YSD), and fetal heart rate (FHR) were measured by transvaginal ultrasonography. Ultrasonography was repeated at 12 weeks and beyond to determine pregnancy continuation. Among 800 women, 140 (17.5%) experienced early spontaneous abortion. CRL, GSD, and FHR values below the 5th percentile (odds ratio [OR] 26.48, 26.94, and 100.63, respectively), and YSD above the 95th percentile (OR 1.04) were predictors of early abortion. Normal YSD did not reduce the risk of abortion if the other three parameters were below the 5th percentile (OR 34.27). For every 10-bpm decrease in FHR below 130, there was 26.7% increased risk of abortion. GSD-CRL difference of less than 5 mm was associated with a higher likelihood of abortion (OR 4.88). First-trimester ultrasound measurements are predictors of early abortion. Risk assessment tables based on combinations of abnormal measures might improve prediction rates. © 2017 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics.

  16. Early listening and speaking skills predict later reading proficiency in pediatric cochlear implant users.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spencer, Linda J; Oleson, Jacob J

    2008-04-01

    Previous studies have reported that children who use cochlear implants (CIs) tend to achieve higher reading levels than their peers with profound hearing loss who use hearing aids. The purpose of this study was to investigate the influences of auditory information provided by the CI on the later reading skills of children born with profound deafness. The hypothesis was that there would be a positive and predictive relationship between earlier speech perception, production, and subsequent reading comprehension. The speech perception and production skills at the vowel, consonant, phoneme, and word level of 72 children with prelingual, profound hearing loss were assessed after 48 mos of CI use. The children's reading skills were subsequently assessed using word and passage comprehension measures after an average of 89.5 mos of CI use. A regression analysis determined the amount of variance in reading that could be explained by the variables of perception, production, and socioeconomic status. Regression analysis revealed that it was possible to explain 59% of the variance of later reading skills by assessing the early speech perception and production performance. The results indicated that early speech perception and production skills of children with profound hearing loss who receive CIs predict future reading achievement skills. Furthermore, the study implies that better early speech perception and production skills result in higher reading achievement. It is speculated that the early access to sound helps to build better phonological processing skills, which is one of the likely contributors to eventual reading success.

  17. Early performance of Pinus radiata provenances in the earthquake-ravaged dry river valley area of Sichuan, southwest China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Huiquan Bi; Rongwei Li; Zongxing Wu; Quan Huang; Qianli Liu; Yongli; Zhou Yun Li

    2013-01-01

    native provenances and the Australian land race. Because the genetic base of the present Australian plantations was de-rived largely from Año Nuevo and Monterey, the superior early growth performance of Cambria at such difficult sites brings a new promise to the search of P. radiata provenances for the vast dryland areas in New South Wales and other parts of Australia.

  18. Earthquakes in Virginia and vicinity 1774 - 2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarr, Arthur C.; Wheeler, Russell L.

    2006-01-01

    This map summarizes two and a third centuries of earthquake activity. The seismic history consists of letters, journals, diaries, and newspaper and scholarly articles that supplement seismograph recordings (seismograms) dating from the early twentieth century to the present. All of the pre-instrumental (historical) earthquakes were large enough to be felt by people or to cause shaking damage to buildings and their contents. Later, widespread use of seismographs meant that tremors too small or distant to be felt could be detected and accurately located. Earthquakes are a legitimate concern in Virginia and parts of adjacent States. Moderate earthquakes cause slight local damage somewhere in the map area about twice a decade on the average. Additionally, many buildings in the map area were constructed before earthquake protection was added to local building codes. The large map shows all historical and instrumentally located earthquakes from 1774 through 2004.

  19. Early functional magnetic resonance imaging activations predict language outcome after stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saur, Dorothee; Ronneberger, Olaf; Kümmerer, Dorothee; Mader, Irina; Weiller, Cornelius; Klöppel, Stefan

    2010-04-01

    An accurate prediction of system-specific recovery after stroke is essential to provide rehabilitation therapy based on the individual needs. We explored the usefulness of functional magnetic resonance imaging scans from an auditory language comprehension experiment to predict individual language recovery in 21 aphasic stroke patients. Subjects with an at least moderate language impairment received extensive language testing 2 weeks and 6 months after left-hemispheric stroke. A multivariate machine learning technique was used to predict language outcome 6 months after stroke. In addition, we aimed to predict the degree of language improvement over 6 months. 76% of patients were correctly separated into those with good and bad language performance 6 months after stroke when based on functional magnetic resonance imaging data from language relevant areas. Accuracy further improved (86% correct assignments) when age and language score were entered alongside functional magnetic resonance imaging data into the fully automatic classifier. A similar accuracy was reached when predicting the degree of language improvement based on imaging, age and language performance. No prediction better than chance level was achieved when exploring the usefulness of diffusion weighted imaging as well as functional magnetic resonance imaging acquired two days after stroke. This study demonstrates the high potential of current machine learning techniques to predict system-specific clinical outcome even for a disease as heterogeneous as stroke. Best prediction of language recovery is achieved when the brain activation potential after system-specific stimulation is assessed in the second week post stroke. More intensive early rehabilitation could be provided for those with a predicted poor recovery and the extension to other systems, for example, motor and attention seems feasible.