WorldWideScience

Sample records for early earthquake predictions

  1. Earthquake prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, P.L.

    1978-01-01

    The state of the art of earthquake prediction is summarized, the possible responses to such prediction are examined, and some needs in the present prediction program and in research related to use of this new technology are reviewed. Three basic aspects of earthquake prediction are discussed: location of the areas where large earthquakes are most likely to occur, observation within these areas of measurable changes (earthquake precursors) and determination of the area and time over which the earthquake will occur, and development of models of the earthquake source in order to interpret the precursors reliably. 6 figures

  2. Earthquake Early Warning Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Pei-Yang Lin

    2011-01-01

    Because of Taiwan’s unique geographical environment, earthquake disasters occur frequently in Taiwan. The Central Weather Bureau collated earthquake data from between 1901 and 2006 (Central Weather Bureau, 2007) and found that 97 earthquakes had occurred, of which, 52 resulted in casualties. The 921 Chichi Earthquake had the most profound impact. Because earthquakes have instant destructive power and current scientific technologies cannot provide precise early warnings in advance, earthquake ...

  3. Real-time numerical shake prediction and updating for earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tianyun; Jin, Xing; Wei, Yongxiang; Huang, Yandan

    2017-12-01

    Ground motion prediction is important for earthquake early warning systems, because the region's peak ground motion indicates the potential disaster. In order to predict the peak ground motion quickly and precisely with limited station wave records, we propose a real-time numerical shake prediction and updating method. Our method first predicts the ground motion based on the ground motion prediction equation after P waves detection of several stations, denoted as the initial prediction. In order to correct the prediction error of the initial prediction, an updating scheme based on real-time simulation of wave propagation is designed. Data assimilation technique is incorporated to predict the distribution of seismic wave energy precisely. Radiative transfer theory and Monte Carlo simulation are used for modeling wave propagation in 2-D space, and the peak ground motion is calculated as quickly as possible. Our method has potential to predict shakemap, making the potential disaster be predicted before the real disaster happens. 2008 M S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake is studied as an example to show the validity of the proposed method.

  4. Real-time 3-D space numerical shake prediction for earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tianyun; Jin, Xing; Huang, Yandan; Wei, Yongxiang

    2017-12-01

    In earthquake early warning systems, real-time shake prediction through wave propagation simulation is a promising approach. Compared with traditional methods, it does not suffer from the inaccurate estimation of source parameters. For computation efficiency, wave direction is assumed to propagate on the 2-D surface of the earth in these methods. In fact, since the seismic wave propagates in the 3-D sphere of the earth, the 2-D space modeling of wave direction results in inaccurate wave estimation. In this paper, we propose a 3-D space numerical shake prediction method, which simulates the wave propagation in 3-D space using radiative transfer theory, and incorporate data assimilation technique to estimate the distribution of wave energy. 2011 Tohoku earthquake is studied as an example to show the validity of the proposed model. 2-D space model and 3-D space model are compared in this article, and the prediction results show that numerical shake prediction based on 3-D space model can estimate the real-time ground motion precisely, and overprediction is alleviated when using 3-D space model.

  5. Crowdsourced earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.

    2015-01-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing.

  6. CyberShake-derived ground-motion prediction models for the Los Angeles region with application to earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bose, Maren; Graves, Robert; Gill, David; Callaghan, Scott; Maechling, Phillip J.

    2014-01-01

    Real-time applications such as earthquake early warning (EEW) typically use empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) along with event magnitude and source-to-site distances to estimate expected shaking levels. In this simplified approach, effects due to finite-fault geometry, directivity and site and basin response are often generalized, which may lead to a significant under- or overestimation of shaking from large earthquakes (M > 6.5) in some locations. For enhanced site-specific ground-motion predictions considering 3-D wave-propagation effects, we develop support vector regression (SVR) models from the SCEC CyberShake low-frequency (415 000 finite-fault rupture scenarios (6.5 ≤ M ≤ 8.5) for southern California defined in UCERF 2.0. We use CyberShake to demonstrate the application of synthetic waveform data to EEW as a ‘proof of concept’, being aware that these simulations are not yet fully validated and might not appropriately sample the range of rupture uncertainty. Our regression models predict the maximum and the temporal evolution of instrumental intensity (MMI) at 71 selected test sites using only the hypocentre, magnitude and rupture ratio, which characterizes uni- and bilateral rupture propagation. Our regression approach is completely data-driven (where here the CyberShake simulations are considered data) and does not enforce pre-defined functional forms or dependencies among input parameters. The models were established from a subset (∼20 per cent) of CyberShake simulations, but can explain MMI values of all >400 k rupture scenarios with a standard deviation of about 0.4 intensity units. We apply our models to determine threshold magnitudes (and warning times) for various active faults in southern California that earthquakes need to exceed to cause at least ‘moderate’, ‘strong’ or ‘very strong’ shaking in the Los Angeles (LA) basin. These thresholds are used to construct a simple and robust EEW algorithm: to

  7. Geophysical Anomalies and Earthquake Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, D. D.

    2008-12-01

    Finding anomalies is easy. Predicting earthquakes convincingly from such anomalies is far from easy. Why? Why have so many beautiful geophysical abnormalities not led to successful prediction strategies? What is earthquake prediction? By my definition it is convincing information that an earthquake of specified size is temporarily much more likely than usual in a specific region for a specified time interval. We know a lot about normal earthquake behavior, including locations where earthquake rates are higher than elsewhere, with estimable rates and size distributions. We know that earthquakes have power law size distributions over large areas, that they cluster in time and space, and that aftershocks follow with power-law dependence on time. These relationships justify prudent protective measures and scientific investigation. Earthquake prediction would justify exceptional temporary measures well beyond those normal prudent actions. Convincing earthquake prediction would result from methods that have demonstrated many successes with few false alarms. Predicting earthquakes convincingly is difficult for several profound reasons. First, earthquakes start in tiny volumes at inaccessible depth. The power law size dependence means that tiny unobservable ones are frequent almost everywhere and occasionally grow to larger size. Thus prediction of important earthquakes is not about nucleation, but about identifying the conditions for growth. Second, earthquakes are complex. They derive their energy from stress, which is perniciously hard to estimate or model because it is nearly singular at the margins of cracks and faults. Physical properties vary from place to place, so the preparatory processes certainly vary as well. Thus establishing the needed track record for validation is very difficult, especially for large events with immense interval times in any one location. Third, the anomalies are generally complex as well. Electromagnetic anomalies in particular require

  8. Earthquake prediction by Kina Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kianoosh, H.; Keypour, H.; Naderzadeh, A.; Motlagh, H.F.

    2005-01-01

    Earthquake prediction has been one of the earliest desires of the man. Scientists have worked hard to predict earthquakes for a long time. The results of these efforts can generally be divided into two methods of prediction: 1) Statistical Method, and 2) Empirical Method. In the first method, earthquakes are predicted using statistics and probabilities, while the second method utilizes variety of precursors for earthquake prediction. The latter method is time consuming and more costly. However, the result of neither method has fully satisfied the man up to now. In this paper a new method entitled 'Kiana Method' is introduced for earthquake prediction. This method offers more accurate results yet lower cost comparing to other conventional methods. In Kiana method the electrical and magnetic precursors are measured in an area. Then, the time and the magnitude of an earthquake in the future is calculated using electrical, and in particular, electrical capacitors formulas. In this method, by daily measurement of electrical resistance in an area we make clear that the area is capable of earthquake occurrence in the future or not. If the result shows a positive sign, then the occurrence time and the magnitude can be estimated by the measured quantities. This paper explains the procedure and details of this prediction method. (authors)

  9. Radon observation for earthquake prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wakita, Hiroshi [Tokyo Univ. (Japan)

    1998-12-31

    Systematic observation of groundwater radon for the purpose of earthquake prediction began in Japan in late 1973. Continuous observations are conducted at fixed stations using deep wells and springs. During the observation period, significant precursory changes including the 1978 Izu-Oshima-kinkai (M7.0) earthquake as well as numerous coseismic changes were observed. At the time of the 1995 Kobe (M7.2) earthquake, significant changes in chemical components, including radon dissolved in groundwater, were observed near the epicentral region. Precursory changes are presumably caused by permeability changes due to micro-fracturing in basement rock or migration of water from different sources during the preparation stage of earthquakes. Coseismic changes may be caused by seismic shaking and by changes in regional stress. Significant drops of radon concentration in groundwater have been observed after earthquakes at the KSM site. The occurrence of such drops appears to be time-dependent, and possibly reflects changes in the regional stress state of the observation area. The absence of radon drops seems to be correlated with periods of reduced regional seismic activity. Experience accumulated over the two past decades allows us to reach some conclusions: 1) changes in groundwater radon do occur prior to large earthquakes; 2) some sites are particularly sensitive to earthquake occurrence; and 3) the sensitivity changes over time. (author)

  10. Earthquake predictions using seismic velocity ratios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherburne, R. W.

    1979-01-01

    Since the beginning of modern seismology, seismologists have contemplated predicting earthquakes. The usefulness of earthquake predictions to the reduction of human and economic losses and the value of long-range earthquake prediction to planning is obvious. Not as clear are the long-range economic and social impacts of earthquake prediction to a speicifc area. The general consensus of opinion among scientists and government officials, however, is that the quest of earthquake prediction is a worthwhile goal and should be prusued with a sense of urgency. 

  11. Earthquake prediction with electromagnetic phenomena

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hayakawa, Masashi, E-mail: hayakawa@hi-seismo-em.jp [Hayakawa Institute of Seismo Electomagnetics, Co. Ltd., University of Electro-Communications (UEC) Incubation Center, 1-5-1 Chofugaoka, Chofu Tokyo, 182-8585 (Japan); Advanced Wireless & Communications Research Center, UEC, Chofu Tokyo (Japan); Earthquake Analysis Laboratory, Information Systems Inc., 4-8-15, Minami-aoyama, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 107-0062 (Japan); Fuji Security Systems. Co. Ltd., Iwato-cho 1, Shinjyuku-ku, Tokyo (Japan)

    2016-02-01

    Short-term earthquake (EQ) prediction is defined as prospective prediction with the time scale of about one week, which is considered to be one of the most important and urgent topics for the human beings. If this short-term prediction is realized, casualty will be drastically reduced. Unlike the conventional seismic measurement, we proposed the use of electromagnetic phenomena as precursors to EQs in the prediction, and an extensive amount of progress has been achieved in the field of seismo-electromagnetics during the last two decades. This paper deals with the review on this short-term EQ prediction, including the impossibility myth of EQs prediction by seismometers, the reason why we are interested in electromagnetics, the history of seismo-electromagnetics, the ionospheric perturbation as the most promising candidate of EQ prediction, then the future of EQ predictology from two standpoints of a practical science and a pure science, and finally a brief summary.

  12. The limits of earthquake early warning: Timeliness of ground motion estimates

    OpenAIRE

    Minson, Sarah E.; Meier, Men-Andrin; Baltay, Annemarie S.; Hanks, Thomas C.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.

    2018-01-01

    The basic physics of earthquakes is such that strong ground motion cannot be expected from an earthquake unless the earthquake itself is very close or has grown to be very large. We use simple seismological relationships to calculate the minimum time that must elapse before such ground motion can be expected at a distance from the earthquake, assuming that the earthquake magnitude is not predictable. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are in operation or development for many regions aroun...

  13. Dim prospects for earthquake prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geller, Robert J.

    I was misquoted by C. Lomnitz's [1998] Forum letter (Eos, August 4, 1998, p. 373), which said: [I wonder whether Sasha Gusev [1998] actually believes that branding earthquake prediction a ‘proven nonscience’ [Geller, 1997a] is a paradigm for others to copy.”Readers are invited to verify for themselves that neither “proven nonscience” norv any similar phrase was used by Geller [1997a].

  14. Earthquake Early Warning: User Education and Designing Effective Messages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, E. R.; Sellnow, D. D.; Jones, L.; Sellnow, T. L.

    2014-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and partners are transitioning from test-user trials of a demonstration earthquake early warning system (ShakeAlert) to deciding and preparing how to implement the release of earthquake early warning information, alert messages, and products to the public and other stakeholders. An earthquake early warning system uses seismic station networks to rapidly gather information about an occurring earthquake and send notifications to user devices ahead of the arrival of potentially damaging ground shaking at their locations. Earthquake early warning alerts can thereby allow time for actions to protect lives and property before arrival of damaging shaking, if users are properly educated on how to use and react to such notifications. A collaboration team of risk communications researchers and earth scientists is researching the effectiveness of a chosen subset of potential earthquake early warning interface designs and messages, which could be displayed on a device such as a smartphone. Preliminary results indicate, for instance, that users prefer alerts that include 1) a map to relate their location to the earthquake and 2) instructions for what to do in response to the expected level of shaking. A number of important factors must be considered to design a message that will promote appropriate self-protective behavior. While users prefer to see a map, how much information can be processed in limited time? Are graphical representations of wavefronts helpful or confusing? The most important factor to promote a helpful response is the predicted earthquake intensity, or how strong the expected shaking will be at the user's location. Unlike Japanese users of early warning, few Californians are familiar with the earthquake intensity scale, so we are exploring how differentiating instructions between intensity levels (e.g., "Be aware" for lower shaking levels and "Drop, cover, hold on" at high levels) can be paired with self-directed supplemental

  15. Probabilistic approach to earthquake prediction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. D'Addezio

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available The evaluation of any earthquake forecast hypothesis requires the application of rigorous statistical methods. It implies a univocal definition of the model characterising the concerned anomaly or precursor, so as it can be objectively recognised in any circumstance and by any observer.A valid forecast hypothesis is expected to maximise successes and minimise false alarms. The probability gain associated to a precursor is also a popular way to estimate the quality of the predictions based on such precursor. Some scientists make use of a statistical approach based on the computation of the likelihood of an observed realisation of seismic events, and on the comparison of the likelihood obtained under different hypotheses. This method can be extended to algorithms that allow the computation of the density distribution of the conditional probability of earthquake occurrence in space, time and magnitude. Whatever method is chosen for building up a new hypothesis, the final assessment of its validity should be carried out by a test on a new and independent set of observations. The implementation of this test could, however, be problematic for seismicity characterised by long-term recurrence intervals. Even using the historical record, that may span time windows extremely variable between a few centuries to a few millennia, we have a low probability to catch more than one or two events on the same fault. Extending the record of earthquakes of the past back in time up to several millennia, paleoseismology represents a great opportunity to study how earthquakes recur through time and thus provide innovative contributions to time-dependent seismic hazard assessment. Sets of paleoseimologically dated earthquakes have been established for some faults in the Mediterranean area: the Irpinia fault in Southern Italy, the Fucino fault in Central Italy, the El Asnam fault in Algeria and the Skinos fault in Central Greece. By using the age of the

  16. Earthquake Prediction in a Big Data World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, V. G.

    2016-12-01

    The digital revolution started just about 15 years ago has already surpassed the global information storage capacity of more than 5000 Exabytes (in optimally compressed bytes) per year. Open data in a Big Data World provides unprecedented opportunities for enhancing studies of the Earth System. However, it also opens wide avenues for deceptive associations in inter- and transdisciplinary data and for inflicted misleading predictions based on so-called "precursors". Earthquake prediction is not an easy task that implies a delicate application of statistics. So far, none of the proposed short-term precursory signals showed sufficient evidence to be used as a reliable precursor of catastrophic earthquakes. Regretfully, in many cases of seismic hazard assessment (SHA), from term-less to time-dependent (probabilistic PSHA or deterministic DSHA), and short-term earthquake forecasting (StEF), the claims of a high potential of the method are based on a flawed application of statistics and, therefore, are hardly suitable for communication to decision makers. Self-testing must be done in advance claiming prediction of hazardous areas and/or times. The necessity and possibility of applying simple tools of Earthquake Prediction Strategies, in particular, Error Diagram, introduced by G.M. Molchan in early 1990ies, and Seismic Roulette null-hypothesis as a metric of the alerted space, is evident. The set of errors, i.e. the rates of failure and of the alerted space-time volume, can be easily compared to random guessing, which comparison permits evaluating the SHA method effectiveness and determining the optimal choice of parameters in regard to a given cost-benefit function. These and other information obtained in such a simple testing may supply us with a realistic estimates of confidence and accuracy of SHA predictions and, if reliable but not necessarily perfect, with related recommendations on the level of risks for decision making in regard to engineering design, insurance

  17. Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schorlemmer, D.; Jordan, T. H.; Zechar, J. D.; Gerstenberger, M. C.; Wiemer, S.; Maechling, P. J.

    2006-12-01

    Earthquake prediction is one of the most difficult problems in physical science and, owing to its societal implications, one of the most controversial. The study of earthquake predictability has been impeded by the lack of an adequate experimental infrastructure---the capability to conduct scientific prediction experiments under rigorous, controlled conditions and evaluate them using accepted criteria specified in advance. To remedy this deficiency, the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) is working with its international partners, which include the European Union (through the Swiss Seismological Service) and New Zealand (through GNS Science), to develop a virtual, distributed laboratory with a cyberinfrastructure adequate to support a global program of research on earthquake predictability. This Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) will extend the testing activities of SCEC's Working Group on Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models, from which we will present first results. CSEP will support rigorous procedures for registering prediction experiments on regional and global scales, community-endorsed standards for assessing probability-based and alarm-based predictions, access to authorized data sets and monitoring products from designated natural laboratories, and software to allow researchers to participate in prediction experiments. CSEP will encourage research on earthquake predictability by supporting an environment for scientific prediction experiments that allows the predictive skill of proposed algorithms to be rigorously compared with standardized reference methods and data sets. It will thereby reduce the controversies surrounding earthquake prediction, and it will allow the results of prediction experiments to be communicated to the scientific community, governmental agencies, and the general public in an appropriate research context.

  18. The October 1992 Parkfield, California, earthquake prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langbein, J.

    1992-01-01

    A magnitude 4.7 earthquake occurred near Parkfield, California, on October 20, 992, at 05:28 UTC (October 19 at 10:28 p.m. local or Pacific Daylight Time).This moderate shock, interpreted as the potential foreshock of a damaging earthquake on the San Andreas fault, triggered long-standing federal, state and local government plans to issue a public warning of an imminent magnitude 6 earthquake near Parkfield. Although the predicted earthquake did not take place, sophisticated suites of instruments deployed as part of the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment recorded valuable data associated with an unusual series of events. this article describes the geological aspects of these events, which occurred near Parkfield in October 1992. The accompnaying article, an edited version of a press conference b Richard Andrews, the Director of the California Office of Emergency Service (OES), describes governmental response to the prediction.   

  19. Smartphone MEMS accelerometers and earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Q.; Allen, R. M.; Schreier, L.; Kwon, Y. W.

    2015-12-01

    The low cost MEMS accelerometers in the smartphones are attracting more and more attentions from the science community due to the vast number and potential applications in various areas. We are using the accelerometers inside the smartphones to detect the earthquakes. We did shake table tests to show these accelerometers are also suitable to record large shakings caused by earthquakes. We developed an android app - MyShake, which can even distinguish earthquake movements from daily human activities from the recordings recorded by the accelerometers in personal smartphones and upload trigger information/waveform to our server for further analysis. The data from these smartphones forms a unique datasets for seismological applications, such as earthquake early warning. In this talk I will layout the method we used to recognize earthquake-like movement from single smartphone, and the overview of the whole system that harness the information from a network of smartphones for rapid earthquake detection. This type of system can be easily deployed and scaled up around the global and provides additional insights of the earthquake hazards.

  20. Strong ground motion prediction using virtual earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denolle, M A; Dunham, E M; Prieto, G A; Beroza, G C

    2014-01-24

    Sedimentary basins increase the damaging effects of earthquakes by trapping and amplifying seismic waves. Simulations of seismic wave propagation in sedimentary basins capture this effect; however, there exists no method to validate these results for earthquakes that have not yet occurred. We present a new approach for ground motion prediction that uses the ambient seismic field. We apply our method to a suite of magnitude 7 scenario earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault and compare our ground motion predictions with simulations. Both methods find strong amplification and coupling of source and structure effects, but they predict substantially different shaking patterns across the Los Angeles Basin. The virtual earthquake approach provides a new approach for predicting long-period strong ground motion.

  1. Crowd-Sourced Global Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minson, S. E.; Brooks, B. A.; Glennie, C. L.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Owen, S. E.; Iannucci, B. A.; Hauser, D. L.

    2014-12-01

    Although earthquake early warning (EEW) has shown great promise for reducing loss of life and property, it has only been implemented in a few regions due, in part, to the prohibitive cost of building the required dense seismic and geodetic networks. However, many cars and consumer smartphones, tablets, laptops, and similar devices contain low-cost versions of the same sensors used for earthquake monitoring. If a workable EEW system could be implemented based on either crowd-sourced observations from consumer devices or very inexpensive networks of instruments built from consumer-quality sensors, EEW coverage could potentially be expanded worldwide. Controlled tests of several accelerometers and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers typically found in consumer devices show that, while they are significantly noisier than scientific-grade instruments, they are still accurate enough to capture displacements from moderate and large magnitude earthquakes. The accuracy of these sensors varies greatly depending on the type of data collected. Raw coarse acquisition (C/A) code GPS data are relatively noisy. These observations have a surface displacement detection threshold approaching ~1 m and would thus only be useful in large Mw 8+ earthquakes. However, incorporating either satellite-based differential corrections or using a Kalman filter to combine the raw GNSS data with low-cost acceleration data (such as from a smartphone) decreases the noise dramatically. These approaches allow detection thresholds as low as 5 cm, potentially enabling accurate warnings for earthquakes as small as Mw 6.5. Simulated performance tests show that, with data contributed from only a very small fraction of the population, a crowd-sourced EEW system would be capable of warning San Francisco and San Jose of a Mw 7 rupture on California's Hayward fault and could have accurately issued both earthquake and tsunami warnings for the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake.

  2. Using remote sensing to predict earthquake impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fylaktos, Asimakis; Yfantidou, Anastasia

    2017-09-01

    Natural hazards like earthquakes can result to enormous property damage, and human casualties in mountainous areas. Italy has always been exposed to numerous earthquakes, mostly concentrated in central and southern regions. Last year, two seismic events near Norcia (central Italy) have occurred, which led to substantial loss of life and extensive damage to properties, infrastructure and cultural heritage. This research utilizes remote sensing products and GIS software, to provide a database of information. We used both SAR images of Sentinel 1A and optical imagery of Landsat 8 to examine the differences of topography with the aid of the multi temporal monitoring technique. This technique suits for the observation of any surface deformation. This database is a cluster of information regarding the consequences of the earthquakes in groups, such as property and infrastructure damage, regional rifts, cultivation loss, landslides and surface deformations amongst others, all mapped on GIS software. Relevant organizations can implement these data in order to calculate the financial impact of these types of earthquakes. In the future, we can enrich this database including more regions and enhance the variety of its applications. For instance, we could predict the future impacts of any type of earthquake in several areas, and design a preliminarily model of emergency for immediate evacuation and quick recovery response. It is important to know how the surface moves, in particular geographical regions like Italy, Cyprus and Greece, where earthquakes are so frequent. We are not able to predict earthquakes, but using data from this research, we may assess the damage that could be caused in the future.

  3. Combining multiple earthquake models in real time for earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minson, Sarah E.; Wu, Stephen; Beck, James L; Heaton, Thomas H.

    2017-01-01

    The ultimate goal of earthquake early warning (EEW) is to provide local shaking information to users before the strong shaking from an earthquake reaches their location. This is accomplished by operating one or more real‐time analyses that attempt to predict shaking intensity, often by estimating the earthquake’s location and magnitude and then predicting the ground motion from that point source. Other EEW algorithms use finite rupture models or may directly estimate ground motion without first solving for an earthquake source. EEW performance could be improved if the information from these diverse and independent prediction models could be combined into one unified, ground‐motion prediction. In this article, we set the forecast shaking at each location as the common ground to combine all these predictions and introduce a Bayesian approach to creating better ground‐motion predictions. We also describe how this methodology could be used to build a new generation of EEW systems that provide optimal decisions customized for each user based on the user’s individual false‐alarm tolerance and the time necessary for that user to react.

  4. A mathematical model for predicting earthquake occurrence ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We consider the continental crust under damage. We use the observed results of microseism in many seismic stations of the world which was established to study the time series of the activities of the continental crust with a view to predicting possible time of occurrence of earthquake. We consider microseism time series ...

  5. Regional dependence in earthquake early warning and real time seismology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caprio, M.

    2013-01-01

    An effective earthquake prediction method is still a Chimera. What we can do at the moment, after the occurrence of a seismic event, is to provide the maximum available information as soon as possible. This can help in reducing the impact of the quake on population or and better organize the rescue operations in case of post-event actions. This study strives to improve the evaluation of earthquake parameters shortly after the occurrence of a major earthquake, and the characterization of regional dependencies in Real-Time Seismology. The recent earthquake experience from Tohoku (M 9.0, 11.03.2011) showed how an efficient EEW systems can inform numerous people and thus potentially reduce the economic and human losses by distributing warning messages several seconds before the arrival of seismic waves. In the case of devastating earthquakes, usually, in the first minutes to days after the main shock, the common communications channels can be overloaded or broken. In such cases, a precise knowledge of the macroseismic intensity distribution will represent a decisive contribution in help management and in the valuation of losses. In this work, I focused on improving the adaptability of EEW systems (chapters 1 and 2) and in deriving a global relationship for converting peak ground motion into macroseismic intensity and vice versa (chapter 3). For EEW applications, in chapter 1 we present an evolutionary approach for magnitude estimation for earthquake early warning based on real-time inversion of displacement spectra. The Spectrum Inversion (SI) method estimates magnitude and its uncertainty by inferring the shape of the entire displacement spectral curve based on the part of the spectra constrained by available data. Our method can be applied in any region without the need for calibration. SI magnitude and uncertainty estimates are updated each second following the initial P detection and potentially stabilize within 10 seconds from the initial earthquake detection

  6. Regional dependence in earthquake early warning and real time seismology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caprio, M.

    2013-07-01

    An effective earthquake prediction method is still a Chimera. What we can do at the moment, after the occurrence of a seismic event, is to provide the maximum available information as soon as possible. This can help in reducing the impact of the quake on population or and better organize the rescue operations in case of post-event actions. This study strives to improve the evaluation of earthquake parameters shortly after the occurrence of a major earthquake, and the characterization of regional dependencies in Real-Time Seismology. The recent earthquake experience from Tohoku (M 9.0, 11.03.2011) showed how an efficient EEW systems can inform numerous people and thus potentially reduce the economic and human losses by distributing warning messages several seconds before the arrival of seismic waves. In the case of devastating earthquakes, usually, in the first minutes to days after the main shock, the common communications channels can be overloaded or broken. In such cases, a precise knowledge of the macroseismic intensity distribution will represent a decisive contribution in help management and in the valuation of losses. In this work, I focused on improving the adaptability of EEW systems (chapters 1 and 2) and in deriving a global relationship for converting peak ground motion into macroseismic intensity and vice versa (chapter 3). For EEW applications, in chapter 1 we present an evolutionary approach for magnitude estimation for earthquake early warning based on real-time inversion of displacement spectra. The Spectrum Inversion (SI) method estimates magnitude and its uncertainty by inferring the shape of the entire displacement spectral curve based on the part of the spectra constrained by available data. Our method can be applied in any region without the need for calibration. SI magnitude and uncertainty estimates are updated each second following the initial P detection and potentially stabilize within 10 seconds from the initial earthquake detection

  7. Home seismometer for earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horiuchi, Shigeki; Horiuchi, Yuko; Yamamoto, Shunroku; Nakamura, Hiromitsu; Wu, Changjiang; Rydelek, Paul A.; Kachi, Masaaki

    2009-02-01

    The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has started the practical service of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) and a very dense deployment of receiving units is expected in the near future. The receiving/alarm unit of an EEW system is equipped with a CPU and memory and is on-line via the internet. By adding an inexpensive seismometer and A/D converter, this unit is transformed into a real-time seismic observatory, which we are calling a home seismometer. If the home seismometer is incorporated in the standard receiving unit of EEW, then the number of seismic observatories will be drastically increased. Since the background noise inside a house caused by human activity may be very large, we have developed specialized software for on-site warning using the home seismometer. We tested our software and found that our algorithm can correctly distinguish between noise and earthquakes for nearly all the events.

  8. Geodetic Finite-Fault-based Earthquake Early Warning Performance for Great Earthquakes Worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruhl, C. J.; Melgar, D.; Grapenthin, R.; Allen, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    GNSS-based earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithms estimate fault-finiteness and unsaturated moment magnitude for the largest, most damaging earthquakes. Because large events are infrequent, algorithms are not regularly exercised and insufficiently tested on few available datasets. The Geodetic Alarm System (G-larmS) is a GNSS-based finite-fault algorithm developed as part of the ShakeAlert EEW system in the western US. Performance evaluations using synthetic earthquakes offshore Cascadia showed that G-larmS satisfactorily recovers magnitude and fault length, providing useful alerts 30-40 s after origin time and timely warnings of ground motion for onshore urban areas. An end-to-end test of the ShakeAlert system demonstrated the need for GNSS data to accurately estimate ground motions in real-time. We replay real data from several subduction-zone earthquakes worldwide to demonstrate the value of GNSS-based EEW for the largest, most damaging events. We compare predicted ground acceleration (PGA) from first-alert-solutions with those recorded in major urban areas. In addition, where applicable, we compare observed tsunami heights to those predicted from the G-larmS solutions. We show that finite-fault inversion based on GNSS-data is essential to achieving the goals of EEW.

  9. A Deterministic Approach to Earthquake Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vittorio Sgrigna

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims at giving suggestions for a deterministic approach to investigate possible earthquake prediction and warning. A fundamental contribution can come by observations and physical modeling of earthquake precursors aiming at seeing in perspective the phenomenon earthquake within the framework of a unified theory able to explain the causes of its genesis, and the dynamics, rheology, and microphysics of its preparation, occurrence, postseismic relaxation, and interseismic phases. Studies based on combined ground and space observations of earthquake precursors are essential to address the issue. Unfortunately, up to now, what is lacking is the demonstration of a causal relationship (with explained physical processes and looking for a correlation between data gathered simultaneously and continuously by space observations and ground-based measurements. In doing this, modern and/or new methods and technologies have to be adopted to try to solve the problem. Coordinated space- and ground-based observations imply available test sites on the Earth surface to correlate ground data, collected by appropriate networks of instruments, with space ones detected on board of Low-Earth-Orbit (LEO satellites. Moreover, a new strong theoretical scientific effort is necessary to try to understand the physics of the earthquake.

  10. 78 FR 64973 - National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-30

    ... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Geological Survey [GX14GG009950000] National Earthquake Prediction...: Pursuant to Public Law 96-472, the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) will hold a... Council shall advise the Director of the U.S. Geological Survey on proposed earthquake predictions, on the...

  11. 76 FR 69761 - National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-09

    ... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation... 96-472, the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) will hold a 1\\1/2\\-day meeting.... Geological Survey on proposed earthquake predictions, on the completeness and scientific validity of the...

  12. 76 FR 19123 - National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-06

    ... Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) AGENCY: U.S. Geological Survey, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: Pursuant to Public Law 96-472, the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council... proposed earthquake predictions, on the completeness and scientific validity of the available data related...

  13. Signals of ENPEMF Used in Earthquake Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, G.; Dong, H.; Zeng, Z.; Wu, G.; Zabrodin, S. M.

    2012-12-01

    The signals of Earth's natural pulse electromagnetic field (ENPEMF) is a combination of the abnormal crustal magnetic field pulse affected by the earthquake, the induced field of earth's endogenous magnetic field, the induced magnetic field of the exogenous variation magnetic field, geomagnetic pulsation disturbance and other energy coupling process between sun and earth. As an instantaneous disturbance of the variation field of natural geomagnetism, ENPEMF can be used to predict earthquakes. This theory was introduced by A.A Vorobyov, who expressed a hypothesis that pulses can arise not only in the atmosphere but within the Earth's crust due to processes of tectonic-to-electric energy conversion (Vorobyov, 1970; Vorobyov, 1979). The global field time scale of ENPEMF signals has specific stability. Although the wave curves may not overlap completely at different regions, the smoothed diurnal ENPEMF patterns always exhibit the same trend per month. The feature is a good reference for observing the abnormalities of the Earth's natural magnetic field in a specific region. The frequencies of the ENPEMF signals generally locate in kilo Hz range, where frequencies within 5-25 kilo Hz range can be applied to monitor earthquakes. In Wuhan, the best observation frequency is 14.5 kilo Hz. Two special devices are placed in accordance with the S-N and W-E direction. Dramatic variation from the comparison between the pulses waveform obtained from the instruments and the normal reference envelope diagram should indicate high possibility of earthquake. The proposed detection method of earthquake based on ENPEMF can improve the geodynamic monitoring effect and can enrich earthquake prediction methods. We suggest the prospective further researches are about on the exact sources composition of ENPEMF signals, the distinction between noise and useful signals, and the effect of the Earth's gravity tide and solid tidal wave. This method may also provide a promising application in

  14. Is It Possible to Predict Strong Earthquakes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polyakov, Y. S.; Ryabinin, G. V.; Solovyeva, A. B.; Timashev, S. F.

    2015-07-01

    The possibility of earthquake prediction is one of the key open questions in modern geophysics. We propose an approach based on the analysis of common short-term candidate precursors (2 weeks to 3 months prior to strong earthquake) with the subsequent processing of brain activity signals generated in specific types of rats (kept in laboratory settings) who reportedly sense an impending earthquake a few days prior to the event. We illustrate the identification of short-term precursors using the groundwater sodium-ion concentration data in the time frame from 2010 to 2014 (a major earthquake occurred on 28 February 2013) recorded at two different sites in the southeastern part of the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia. The candidate precursors are observed as synchronized peaks in the nonstationarity factors, introduced within the flicker-noise spectroscopy framework for signal processing, for the high-frequency component of both time series. These peaks correspond to the local reorganizations of the underlying geophysical system that are believed to precede strong earthquakes. The rodent brain activity signals are selected as potential "immediate" (up to 2 weeks) deterministic precursors because of the recent scientific reports confirming that rodents sense imminent earthquakes and the population-genetic model of K irshvink (Soc Am 90, 312-323, 2000) showing how a reliable genetic seismic escape response system may have developed over the period of several hundred million years in certain animals. The use of brain activity signals, such as electroencephalograms, in contrast to conventional abnormal animal behavior observations, enables one to apply the standard "input-sensor-response" approach to determine what input signals trigger specific seismic escape brain activity responses.

  15. 77 FR 53225 - National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-31

    ... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Geological Survey [USGS-GX12GG00995NP00] National Earthquake Prediction... meeting. SUMMARY: Pursuant to Public Law 96-472, the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council... National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC), 1711 Illinois Avenue, Golden, Colorado 80401. The Council is...

  16. Moment-ration imaging of seismic regions for earthquake prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lomnitz, Cinna

    1993-10-01

    An algorithm for predicting large earthquakes is proposed. The reciprocal ratio (mri) of the residual seismic moment to the total moment release in a region is used for imaging seismic moment precursors. Peaks in mri predict recent major earthquakes, including the 1985 Michoacan, 1985 central Chile, and 1992 Eureka, California earthquakes.

  17. USGS Earthquake Program GPS Use Case : Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-12

    USGS GPS receiver use case. Item 1 - High Precision User (federal agency with Stafford Act hazard alert responsibilities for earthquakes, volcanoes and landslides nationwide). Item 2 - Description of Associated GPS Application(s): The USGS Eart...

  18. Application of τc*Pd in earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Po-Lun; Lin, Ting-Li; Wu, Yih-Min

    2015-03-01

    Rapid assessment of damage potential and size of an earthquake at the station is highly demanded for onsite earthquake early warning. We study the application of τc*Pd for its estimation on the earthquake size using 123 events recorded by the borehole stations of KiK-net in Japan. The new type of earthquake size determined by τc*Pd is more related to the damage potential. We find that τc*Pd provides another parameter to measure the size of earthquake and the threshold to warn strong ground motion.

  19. The pathway to earthquake early warning in the US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, R. M.; Given, D. D.; Heaton, T. H.; Vidale, J. E.; West Coast Earthquake Early Warning Development Team

    2013-05-01

    The development of earthquake early warning capabilities in the United States is now accelerating and expanding as the technical capability to provide warning is demonstrated and additional funding resources are making it possible to expand the current testing region to the entire west coast (California, Oregon and Washington). Over the course of the next two years we plan to build a prototype system that will provide a blueprint for a full public system in the US. California currently has a demonstrations warning system, ShakeAlert, that provides alerts to a group of test users from the public and private sector. These include biotech companies, technology companies, the entertainment industry, the transportation sector, and the emergency planning and response community. Most groups are currently in an evaluation mode, receiving the alerts and developing protocols for future response. The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) system is the one group who has now implemented an automated response to the warning system. BART now stops trains when an earthquake of sufficient size is detected. Research and development also continues to develop improved early warning algorithms to better predict the distribution of shaking in large earthquakes when the finiteness of the source becomes important. The algorithms under development include the use of both seismic and GPS instrumentation and integration with existing point source algorithms. At the same time, initial testing and development of algorithms in and for the Pacific Northwest is underway. In this presentation we will review the current status of the systems, highlight the new research developments, and lay out a pathway to a full public system for the US west coast. The research and development described is ongoing at Caltech, UC Berkeley, University of Washington, ETH Zurich, Southern California Earthquake Center, and the US Geological Survey, and is funded by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation and the US Geological

  20. Earthquake prediction the ory and its relation to precursors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Negarestani, A.; Setayeshi, S.; Ghannadi-Maragheh, M.; Akasheh, B.

    2001-01-01

    Since we don't have enough knowledge about the Physics of earthquakes. therefore. the study of seismic precursors plays an important role in earthquake prediction. Earthquake prediction is a science which discusses about precursory phenomena during seismogenic process, and then investigates the correlation and association among them and the intrinsic relation between precursors and the seismogenic process. ar the end judges comprehensively the seismic status and finally makes earthquake prediction. There are two ways for predicting earthquake prediction. The first is to study the physics of seismogenic process and to determine the parameters in the process based on the source theories and the second way is to use seismic precursors. In this paper the theory of earthquake is reviewed. We also study theory of earthquake using models of earthquake origin, the relation between seismogenic process and various accompanying precursory phenomena. The earthquake prediction is divided into three categories: long-term, medium-term and short-term. We study seismic anomalous behavior. electric field, crustal deformation, gravity. magnetism of earth. change of groundwater variation. groundwater geochemistry and change of Radon gas emission. Finally, it is concluded the there is a correlation between Radon gas emission and earthquake phenomena. Meanwhile, there are some samples from actual processing in this area

  1. Gambling scores for earthquake predictions and forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Jiancang

    2010-04-01

    This paper presents a new method, namely the gambling score, for scoring the performance earthquake forecasts or predictions. Unlike most other scoring procedures that require a regular scheme of forecast and treat each earthquake equally, regardless their magnitude, this new scoring method compensates the risk that the forecaster has taken. Starting with a certain number of reputation points, once a forecaster makes a prediction or forecast, he is assumed to have betted some points of his reputation. The reference model, which plays the role of the house, determines how many reputation points the forecaster can gain if he succeeds, according to a fair rule, and also takes away the reputation points betted by the forecaster if he loses. This method is also extended to the continuous case of point process models, where the reputation points betted by the forecaster become a continuous mass on the space-time-magnitude range of interest. We also calculate the upper bound of the gambling score when the true model is a renewal process, the stress release model or the ETAS model and when the reference model is the Poisson model.

  2. Statistical short-term earthquake prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagan, Y Y; Knopoff, L

    1987-06-19

    A statistical procedure, derived from a theoretical model of fracture growth, is used to identify a foreshock sequence while it is in progress. As a predictor, the procedure reduces the average uncertainty in the rate of occurrence for a future strong earthquake by a factor of more than 1000 when compared with the Poisson rate of occurrence. About one-third of all main shocks with local magnitude greater than or equal to 4.0 in central California can be predicted in this way, starting from a 7-year database that has a lower magnitude cut off of 1.5. The time scale of such predictions is of the order of a few hours to a few days for foreshocks in the magnitude range from 2.0 to 5.0.

  3. Stigma in science: the case of earthquake prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joffe, Helene; Rossetto, Tiziana; Bradley, Caroline; O'Connor, Cliodhna

    2018-01-01

    This paper explores how earthquake scientists conceptualise earthquake prediction, particularly given the conviction of six earthquake scientists for manslaughter (subsequently overturned) on 22 October 2012 for having given inappropriate advice to the public prior to the L'Aquila earthquake of 6 April 2009. In the first study of its kind, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 17 earthquake scientists and the transcribed interviews were analysed thematically. The scientists primarily denigrated earthquake prediction, showing strong emotive responses and distancing themselves from earthquake 'prediction' in favour of 'forecasting'. Earthquake prediction was regarded as impossible and harmful. The stigmatisation of the subject is discussed in the light of research on boundary work and stigma in science. The evaluation reveals how mitigation becomes the more favoured endeavour, creating a normative environment that disadvantages those who continue to pursue earthquake prediction research. Recommendations are made for communication with the public on earthquake risk, with a focus on how scientists portray uncertainty. © 2018 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2018.

  4. Modified-Fibonacci-Dual-Lucas method for earthquake prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boucouvalas, A. C.; Gkasios, M.; Tselikas, N. T.; Drakatos, G.

    2015-06-01

    The FDL method makes use of Fibonacci, Dual and Lucas numbers and has shown considerable success in predicting earthquake events locally as well as globally. Predicting the location of the epicenter of an earthquake is one difficult challenge the other being the timing and magnitude. One technique for predicting the onset of earthquakes is the use of cycles, and the discovery of periodicity. Part of this category is the reported FDL method. The basis of the reported FDL method is the creation of FDL future dates based on the onset date of significant earthquakes. The assumption being that each occurred earthquake discontinuity can be thought of as a generating source of FDL time series The connection between past earthquakes and future earthquakes based on FDL numbers has also been reported with sample earthquakes since 1900. Using clustering methods it has been shown that significant earthquakes (conjunct Sun, Moon opposite Sun, Moon conjunct or opposite North or South Modes. In order to test improvement of the method we used all +8R earthquakes recorded since 1900, (86 earthquakes from USGS data). We have developed the FDL numbers for each of those seeds, and examined the earthquake hit rates (for a window of 3, i.e. +-1 day of target date) and for <6.5R. The successes are counted for each one of the 86 earthquake seeds and we compare the MFDL method with the FDL method. In every case we find improvement when the starting seed date is on the planetary trigger date prior to the earthquake. We observe no improvement only when a planetary trigger coincided with the earthquake date and in this case the FDL method coincides with the MFDL. Based on the MDFL method we present the prediction method capable of predicting global events or localized earthquakes and we will discuss the accuracy of the method in as far as the prediction and location parts of the method. We show example calendar style predictions for global events as well as for the Greek region using

  5. Gambling score in earthquake prediction analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molchan, G.; Romashkova, L.

    2011-03-01

    The number of successes and the space-time alarm rate are commonly used to characterize the strength of an earthquake prediction method and the significance of prediction results. It has been recently suggested to use a new characteristic to evaluate the forecaster's skill, the gambling score (GS), which incorporates the difficulty of guessing each target event by using different weights for different alarms. We expand parametrization of the GS and use the M8 prediction algorithm to illustrate difficulties of the new approach in the analysis of the prediction significance. We show that the level of significance strongly depends (1) on the choice of alarm weights, (2) on the partitioning of the entire alarm volume into component parts and (3) on the accuracy of the spatial rate measure of target events. These tools are at the disposal of the researcher and can affect the significance estimate. Formally, all reasonable GSs discussed here corroborate that the M8 method is non-trivial in the prediction of 8.0 ≤M < 8.5 events because the point estimates of the significance are in the range 0.5-5 per cent. However, the conservative estimate 3.7 per cent based on the number of successes seems preferable owing to two circumstances: (1) it is based on relative values of the spatial rate and hence is more stable and (2) the statistic of successes enables us to construct analytically an upper estimate of the significance taking into account the uncertainty of the spatial rate measure.

  6. Prediction of earthquakes: a data evaluation and exchange problem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melchior, Paul

    1978-11-15

    Recent experiences in earthquake prediction are recalled. Precursor information seems to be available from geodetic measurements, hydrological and geochemical measurements, electric and magnetic measurements, purely seismic phenomena, and zoological phenomena; some new methods are proposed. A list of possible earthquake triggers is given. The dilatancy model is contrasted with a dry model; they seem to be equally successful. In conclusion, the space and time range of the precursors is discussed in relation to the magnitude of earthquakes. (RWR)

  7. Armenian earthquake WWER-440 NNPs and Turkish early warning system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bektur, Y.

    1991-01-01

    On December 7, 1988 a severe earthquake occurred at Spitak, approximately 90-100 km far from the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant in Yerivan. Another one named Vrancea earthquake which occurred on 4 March, 1977. During this earthquake, the Kozloduj NPP (Bulgaria) was strongly damaged. Until this event, seismic loadings had received scant attention in the siting of WWER's. However after the Kozlodui damage Soviet designers changed their opinion. In this study, the seismicity of the Black Sea region and eastern Europe, seismic requirements for WWER's and the changes in plants for which to resistant against to the earthquake are given. During the earthquake radiation levels obtained by Turkish early warning system is also given

  8. The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake and the Rise and Fall of Earthquake Prediction in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Q.; Wang, K.

    2009-12-01

    Regardless of the future potential of earthquake prediction, it is presently impractical to rely on it to mitigate earthquake disasters. The practical approach is to strengthen the resilience of our built environment to earthquakes based on hazard assessment. But this was not common understanding in China when the M 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake struck the Sichuan Province on 12 May 2008, claiming over 80,000 lives. In China, earthquake prediction is a government-sanctioned and law-regulated measure of disaster prevention. A sudden boom of the earthquake prediction program in 1966-1976 coincided with a succession of nine M > 7 damaging earthquakes in the densely populated region of the country and the political chaos of the Cultural Revolution. It climaxed with the prediction of the 1975 Haicheng earthquake, which was due mainly to an unusually pronounced foreshock sequence and the extraordinary readiness of some local officials to issue imminent warning and evacuation order. The Haicheng prediction was a success in practice and yielded useful lessons, but the experience cannot be applied to most other earthquakes and cultural environments. Since the disastrous Tangshan earthquake in 1976 that killed over 240,000 people, there have been two opposite trends in China: decreasing confidence in prediction and increasing emphasis on regulating construction design for earthquake resilience. In 1976, most of the seismic intensity XI areas of Tangshan were literally razed to the ground, but in 2008, many buildings in the intensity XI areas of Wenchuan did not collapse. Prediction did not save life in either of these events; the difference was made by construction standards. For regular buildings, there was no seismic design in Tangshan to resist any earthquake shaking in 1976, but limited seismic design was required for the Wenchuan area in 2008. Although the construction standards were later recognized to be too low, those buildings that met the standards suffered much less

  9. Fixed recurrence and slip models better predict earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models 1: repeating earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubinstein, Justin L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Chen, Kate Huihsuan; Uchida, Naoki

    2012-01-01

    The behavior of individual events in repeating earthquake sequences in California, Taiwan and Japan is better predicted by a model with fixed inter-event time or fixed slip than it is by the time- and slip-predictable models for earthquake occurrence. Given that repeating earthquakes are highly regular in both inter-event time and seismic moment, the time- and slip-predictable models seem ideally suited to explain their behavior. Taken together with evidence from the companion manuscript that shows similar results for laboratory experiments we conclude that the short-term predictions of the time- and slip-predictable models should be rejected in favor of earthquake models that assume either fixed slip or fixed recurrence interval. This implies that the elastic rebound model underlying the time- and slip-predictable models offers no additional value in describing earthquake behavior in an event-to-event sense, but its value in a long-term sense cannot be determined. These models likely fail because they rely on assumptions that oversimplify the earthquake cycle. We note that the time and slip of these events is predicted quite well by fixed slip and fixed recurrence models, so in some sense they are time- and slip-predictable. While fixed recurrence and slip models better predict repeating earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models, we observe a correlation between slip and the preceding recurrence time for many repeating earthquake sequences in Parkfield, California. This correlation is not found in other regions, and the sequences with the correlative slip-predictable behavior are not distinguishable from nearby earthquake sequences that do not exhibit this behavior.

  10. An application of earthquake prediction algorithm M8 in eastern ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, ... located about 70 km from a preceding M7.3 earthquake that occurred in ... local extremes of the seismic density distribution, and in the third approach, CI centers were distributed ...... Bird P 2003 An updated digital model of plate boundaries;.

  11. Performance of wire-type Rn detectors operated with gas gain in ambient air in view of its possible application to early earthquake predictions

    CERN Document Server

    Charpak, Georges; Breuil, P; Nappi, E; Martinengo, P; Peskov, V

    2010-01-01

    We describe a detector of alpha particles based on wire type counters (single-wire and multiwire) operating in ambient air at high gas gains (100-1000). The main advantages of these detectors are: low cost, robustness and ability to operate in humid air. The minimum detectable activity achieved with the multiwire detector for an integration time of 1 min is 140 Bq per m3, which is comparable to that featured by commercial devices. Owing to such features the detector is suited for massive application, for example for continuous monitoring of Rn or Po contaminations or, as discussed in the paper, its use in a network of Rn counters in areas affected by earth-quakes in order to verify, on a solid statistical basis, the envisaged correlation between the sudden Rn appearance and a forthcoming earthquake.

  12. Quantitative Earthquake Prediction on Global and Regional Scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir G.

    2006-01-01

    The Earth is a hierarchy of volumes of different size. Driven by planetary convection these volumes are involved into joint and relative movement. The movement is controlled by a wide variety of processes on and around the fractal mesh of boundary zones, and does produce earthquakes. This hierarchy of movable volumes composes a large non-linear dynamical system. Prediction of such a system in a sense of extrapolation of trajectory into the future is futile. However, upon coarse-graining the integral empirical regularities emerge opening possibilities of prediction in a sense of the commonly accepted consensus definition worked out in 1976 by the US National Research Council. Implications of the understanding hierarchical nature of lithosphere and its dynamics based on systematic monitoring and evidence of its unified space-energy similarity at different scales help avoiding basic errors in earthquake prediction claims. They suggest rules and recipes of adequate earthquake prediction classification, comparison and optimization. The approach has already led to the design of reproducible intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction technique. Its real-time testing aimed at prediction of the largest earthquakes worldwide has proved beyond any reasonable doubt the effectiveness of practical earthquake forecasting. In the first approximation, the accuracy is about 1-5 years and 5-10 times the anticipated source dimension. Further analysis allows reducing spatial uncertainty down to 1-3 source dimensions, although at a cost of additional failures-to-predict. Despite of limited accuracy a considerable damage could be prevented by timely knowledgeable use of the existing predictions and earthquake prediction strategies. The December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean Disaster seems to be the first indication that the methodology, designed for prediction of M8.0+ earthquakes can be rescaled for prediction of both smaller magnitude earthquakes (e.g., down to M5.5+ in Italy) and

  13. Quantitative Earthquake Prediction on Global and Regional Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir G.

    2006-03-01

    The Earth is a hierarchy of volumes of different size. Driven by planetary convection these volumes are involved into joint and relative movement. The movement is controlled by a wide variety of processes on and around the fractal mesh of boundary zones, and does produce earthquakes. This hierarchy of movable volumes composes a large non-linear dynamical system. Prediction of such a system in a sense of extrapolation of trajectory into the future is futile. However, upon coarse-graining the integral empirical regularities emerge opening possibilities of prediction in a sense of the commonly accepted consensus definition worked out in 1976 by the US National Research Council. Implications of the understanding hierarchical nature of lithosphere and its dynamics based on systematic monitoring and evidence of its unified space-energy similarity at different scales help avoiding basic errors in earthquake prediction claims. They suggest rules and recipes of adequate earthquake prediction classification, comparison and optimization. The approach has already led to the design of reproducible intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction technique. Its real-time testing aimed at prediction of the largest earthquakes worldwide has proved beyond any reasonable doubt the effectiveness of practical earthquake forecasting. In the first approximation, the accuracy is about 1-5 years and 5-10 times the anticipated source dimension. Further analysis allows reducing spatial uncertainty down to 1-3 source dimensions, although at a cost of additional failures-to-predict. Despite of limited accuracy a considerable damage could be prevented by timely knowledgeable use of the existing predictions and earthquake prediction strategies. The December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean Disaster seems to be the first indication that the methodology, designed for prediction of M8.0+ earthquakes can be rescaled for prediction of both smaller magnitude earthquakes (e.g., down to M5.5+ in Italy) and

  14. Application and analysis of debris-flow early warning system in Wenchuan earthquake-affected area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, D. L.; Zhang, S. J.; Yang, H. J.; Zhao, L. Q.; Jiang, Y. H.; Tang, D.; Leng, X. P.

    2016-02-01

    The activities of debris flow (DF) in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area significantly increased after the earthquake on 12 May 2008. The safety of the lives and property of local people is threatened by DFs. A physics-based early warning system (EWS) for DF forecasting was developed and applied in this earthquake area. This paper introduces an application of the system in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area and analyzes the prediction results via a comparison to the DF events triggered by the strong rainfall events reported by the local government. The prediction accuracy and efficiency was first compared with a contribution-factor-based system currently used by the weather bureau of Sichuan province. The storm on 17 August 2012 was used as a case study for this comparison. The comparison shows that the false negative rate and false positive rate of the new system is, respectively, 19 and 21 % lower than the system based on the contribution factors. Consequently, the prediction accuracy is obviously higher than the system based on the contribution factors with a higher operational efficiency. On the invitation of the weather bureau of Sichuan province, the authors upgraded their prediction system of DF by using this new system before the monsoon of Wenchuan earthquake-affected area in 2013. Two prediction cases on 9 July 2013 and 10 July 2014 were chosen to further demonstrate that the new EWS has high stability, efficiency, and prediction accuracy.

  15. Earthquake magnitude estimation using the τ c and P d method for earthquake early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Xing; Zhang, Hongcai; Li, Jun; Wei, Yongxiang; Ma, Qiang

    2013-10-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are one of the most effective ways to reduce earthquake disaster. Earthquake magnitude estimation is one of the most important and also the most difficult parts of the entire EEW system. In this paper, based on 142 earthquake events and 253 seismic records that were recorded by the KiK-net in Japan, and aftershocks of the large Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, we obtained earthquake magnitude estimation relationships using the τ c and P d methods. The standard variances of magnitude calculation of these two formulas are ±0.65 and ±0.56, respectively. The P d value can also be used to estimate the peak ground motion of velocity, then warning information can be released to the public rapidly, according to the estimation results. In order to insure the stability and reliability of magnitude estimation results, we propose a compatibility test according to the natures of these two parameters. The reliability of the early warning information is significantly improved though this test.

  16. Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieterich, J H; Kilgore, B

    1996-04-30

    The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance Dc, apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time-dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of Dc apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of Dc is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks.

  17. Some considerations regarding earthquake prediction - The case of Vrancea region -

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enescu, Bogdan; Enescu, Dumitru

    2000-01-01

    Earthquake prediction research has been conducted for over 100 years with no obvious success. In the last year, the new modern concepts regarding the earthquake dynamics added another source of skepticism regarding the possibility of predicting earthquakes. However there are some recognizable trends, optimized in the recent years, which may give rise to more reliable and solid approaches to deal with this complex subject. In the light of these trends, emphasized by Aki, we try to analyze the new developments in the field, especially concerning the Vrancea region. (authors)

  18. Development of a Low Cost Earthquake Early Warning System in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Y. M.

    2017-12-01

    The National Taiwan University (NTU) developed an earthquake early warning (EEW) system for research purposes using low-cost accelerometers (P-Alert) since 2010. As of 2017, a total of 650 stations have been deployed and configured. The NTU system can provide earthquake information within 15 s of an earthquake occurrence. Thus, this system may provide early warnings for cities located more than 50 km from the epicenter. Additionally, the NTU system also has an onsite alert function that triggers a warning for incoming P-waves greater than a certain magnitude threshold, thus providing a 2-3 s lead time before peak ground acceleration (PGA) for regions close to an epicenter. Detailed shaking maps are produced by the NTU system within one or two minutes after an earthquake. Recently, a new module named ShakeAlarm has been developed. Equipped with real-time acceleration signals and the time-dependent anisotropic attenuation relationship of the PGA, ShakingAlarm can provide an accurate PGA estimation immediately before the arrival of the observed PGA. This unique advantage produces sufficient lead time for hazard assessment and emergency response, which is unavailable for traditional shakemap, which are based on only the PGA observed in real time. The performance of ShakingAlarm was tested with six M > 5.5 inland earthquakes from 2013 to 2016. Taking the 2016 M6.4 Meinong earthquake simulation as an example, the predicted PGA converges to a stable value and produces a predicted shake map and an isocontour map of the predicted PGA within 16 seconds of earthquake occurrence. Compared with traditional regional EEW system, ShakingAlarm can effectively identify possible damage regions and provide valuable early warning information (magnitude and PGA) for risk mitigation.

  19. Real-Time Detection of Rupture Development: Earthquake Early Warning Using P Waves From Growing Ruptures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodera, Yuki

    2018-01-01

    Large earthquakes with long rupture durations emit P wave energy throughout the rupture period. Incorporating late-onset P waves into earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithms could contribute to robust predictions of strong ground motion. Here I describe a technique to detect in real time P waves from growing ruptures to improve the timeliness of an EEW algorithm based on seismic wavefield estimation. The proposed P wave detector, which employs a simple polarization analysis, successfully detected P waves from strong motion generation areas of the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake rupture. An analysis using 23 large (M ≥ 7) events from Japan confirmed that seismic intensity predictions based on the P wave detector significantly increased lead times without appreciably decreasing the prediction accuracy. P waves from growing ruptures, being one of the fastest carriers of information on ongoing rupture development, have the potential to improve the performance of EEW systems.

  20. Automatic Earthquake Shear Stress Measurement Method Developed for Accurate Time- Prediction Analysis of Forthcoming Major Earthquakes Along Shallow Active Faults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serata, S.

    2006-12-01

    The Serata Stressmeter has been developed to measure and monitor earthquake shear stress build-up along shallow active faults. The development work made in the past 25 years has established the Stressmeter as an automatic stress measurement system to study timing of forthcoming major earthquakes in support of the current earthquake prediction studies based on statistical analysis of seismological observations. In early 1982, a series of major Man-made earthquakes (magnitude 4.5-5.0) suddenly occurred in an area over deep underground potash mine in Saskatchewan, Canada. By measuring underground stress condition of the mine, the direct cause of the earthquake was disclosed. The cause was successfully eliminated by controlling the stress condition of the mine. The Japanese government was interested in this development and the Stressmeter was introduced to the Japanese government research program for earthquake stress studies. In Japan the Stressmeter was first utilized for direct measurement of the intrinsic lateral tectonic stress gradient G. The measurement, conducted at the Mt. Fuji Underground Research Center of the Japanese government, disclosed the constant natural gradients of maximum and minimum lateral stresses in an excellent agreement with the theoretical value, i.e., G = 0.25. All the conventional methods of overcoring, hydrofracturing and deformation, which were introduced to compete with the Serata method, failed demonstrating the fundamental difficulties of the conventional methods. The intrinsic lateral stress gradient determined by the Stressmeter for the Japanese government was found to be the same with all the other measurements made by the Stressmeter in Japan. The stress measurement results obtained by the major international stress measurement work in the Hot Dry Rock Projects conducted in USA, England and Germany are found to be in good agreement with the Stressmeter results obtained in Japan. Based on this broad agreement, a solid geomechanical

  1. The limits of earthquake early warning: Timeliness of ground motion estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minson, Sarah E.; Meier, Men-Andrin; Baltay, Annemarie S.; Hanks, Thomas C.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.

    2018-01-01

    The basic physics of earthquakes is such that strong ground motion cannot be expected from an earthquake unless the earthquake itself is very close or has grown to be very large. We use simple seismological relationships to calculate the minimum time that must elapse before such ground motion can be expected at a distance from the earthquake, assuming that the earthquake magnitude is not predictable. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are in operation or development for many regions around the world, with the goal of providing enough warning of incoming ground shaking to allow people and automated systems to take protective actions to mitigate losses. However, the question of how much warning time is physically possible for specified levels of ground motion has not been addressed. We consider a zero-latency EEW system to determine possible warning times a user could receive in an ideal case. In this case, the only limitation on warning time is the time required for the earthquake to evolve and the time for strong ground motion to arrive at a user’s location. We find that users who wish to be alerted at lower ground motion thresholds will receive more robust warnings with longer average warning times than users who receive warnings for higher ground motion thresholds. EEW systems have the greatest potential benefit for users willing to take action at relatively low ground motion thresholds, whereas users who set relatively high thresholds for taking action are less likely to receive timely and actionable information.

  2. Feedback about Earthquake Early Warning: Questionnaire survey after the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake (Mw9.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, M.; Hoshiba, M.; Matsui, M.; Hayashimoto, N.; Wakayama, A.

    2013-05-01

    We will report the results of a questionnaire survey on Earthquake Early Warning (EEW), conducted by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) in February 2012, approximately one year after the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (Mw9.0). In the questionnaire survey, which is based on the performance of the 5-year operation of EEW, the respondents were asked how they obtained EEW, how they reacted to EEW and how useful they considered EEW as a safety measure against strong ground shaking. Respondents numbered 817 in the Tohoku district survey and 2,000 in the nationwide survey. Most respondents received EEW messages from TV or cell phone broadcast mail service. Most respondents took some actions in the Tohoku district (74 percent) and nationwide (54 percent); 16 and 17 percent, respectively, tried to take action but could not; and 10 and 29 percent, respectively, did nothing. More than 90 and 80 percent of respondents thought EEW was useful in the Tohoku district and nationwide, respectively. Many people stated that EEW helped them prepare for strong shaking, even if they did not actually take specific actions. The percentage of respondents evaluating EEW to be useful was larger among Tohoku than nationwide. Likewise, the percentage of people who were able to take useful actions was larger in the Tohoku than nationwide. The difference may be attributed to the degree of experience of EEW that had been frequently issued particularly to the Tohoku district since March the 11th 2011. The benefit of the EEW system was recognized both as a trigger of taking actual actions and as an aid to mental preparedness before strong jolts began. Most people considered that the EEW system was useful despite of some false alarms. Although it is necessary to improve the EEW system to reduce false alarms and make the predictions more precise, the results of this survey should be encouraging to the community of promoting and researching EEW.

  3. EPOS1 - a multiparameter measuring system to earthquake prediction research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Streil, T.; Oeser, V. [SARAD GmbH, Dresden (Germany); Heinicke, J.; Koch, U.; Wiegand, J.

    1998-12-31

    The approach to earthquake prediction by geophysical, geochemical and hydrological measurements is a long and winding road. Nevertheless, the results show a progress in that field (e.g. Kobe). This progress is also a result of a new generation of measuring equipment. SARAD has developed a versatile measuring system (EPOS1) based on experiences and recent results from different research groups. It is able to record selected parameters suitable to earthquake prediction research. A micro-computer system handles data exchange, data management and control. It is connected to a modular sensor system. Sensor modules can be selected according to the actual needs at the measuring site. (author)

  4. Earthquake prediction in Japan and natural time analysis of seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uyeda, S.; Varotsos, P.

    2011-12-01

    M9 super-giant earthquake with huge tsunami devastated East Japan on 11 March, causing more than 20,000 casualties and serious damage of Fukushima nuclear plant. This earthquake was predicted neither short-term nor long-term. Seismologists were shocked because it was not even considered possible to happen at the East Japan subduction zone. However, it was not the only un-predicted earthquake. In fact, throughout several decades of the National Earthquake Prediction Project, not even a single earthquake was predicted. In reality, practically no effective research has been conducted for the most important short-term prediction. This happened because the Japanese National Project was devoted for construction of elaborate seismic networks, which was not the best way for short-term prediction. After the Kobe disaster, in order to parry the mounting criticism on their no success history, they defiantly changed their policy to "stop aiming at short-term prediction because it is impossible and concentrate resources on fundamental research", that meant to obtain "more funding for no prediction research". The public were and are not informed about this change. Obviously earthquake prediction would be possible only when reliable precursory phenomena are caught and we have insisted this would be done most likely through non-seismic means such as geochemical/hydrological and electromagnetic monitoring. Admittedly, the lack of convincing precursors for the M9 super-giant earthquake has adverse effect for us, although its epicenter was far out off shore of the range of operating monitoring systems. In this presentation, we show a new possibility of finding remarkable precursory signals, ironically, from ordinary seismological catalogs. In the frame of the new time domain termed natural time, an order parameter of seismicity, κ1, has been introduced. This is the variance of natural time kai weighted by normalised energy release at χ. In the case that Seismic Electric Signals

  5. Failures and suggestions in Earthquake forecasting and prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sacks, S. I.

    2013-12-01

    Seismologists have had poor success in earthquake prediction. However, wide ranging observations from earlier great earthquakes show that precursory data can exist. In particular, two aspects seem promising. In agreement with simple physical modeling, b-values decrease in highly loaded fault zones for years before failure. Potentially more usefully, in high stress regions, breakdown of dilatant patches leading to failure can yield expelled water-related observations. The volume increase (dilatancy) caused by high shear stresses decreases the pore pressure. Eventually, water flows back in restoring the pore pressure, promoting failure and expelling the extra water. Of course, in a generally stressed region there may be many small patches that fail, such as observed before the 1975 Haicheng earthquake. Only a few days before the major event will most of the dilatancy breakdown occur in the fault zone itself such as for the Tangshan, 1976 destructive event. Observations of 'water release' effects have been observed before the 1923 great Kanto earthquake, the 1984 Yamasaki event, the 1975 Haicheng and the 1976 Tangshan earthquakes and also the 1995 Kobe earthquake. While there are obvious difficulties in water release observations, not least because there is currently no observational network anywhere, historical data does suggest some promise if we broaden our approach to this difficult subject.

  6. Modelling earth current precursors in earthquake prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Di Maio

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the theory of earth current precursors of earthquake. A dilatancy-diffusion-polarization model is proposed to explain the anomalies of the electric potential, which are observed on the ground surface prior to some earthquakes. The electric polarization is believed to be the electrokinetic effect due to the invasion of fluids into new pores, which are opened inside a stressed-dilated rock body. The time and space variation of the distribution of the electric potential in a layered earth as well as in a faulted half-space is studied in detail. It results that the surface response depends on the underground conductivity distribution and on the relative disposition of the measuring dipole with respect to the buried bipole source. A field procedure based on the use of an areal layout of the recording sites is proposed, in order to obtain the most complete information on the time and space evolution of the precursory phenomena in any given seismic region.

  7. Earthquake Drill using the Earthquake Early Warning System at an Elementary School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oki, Satoko; Yazaki, Yoshiaki; Koketsu, Kazuki

    2010-05-01

    economic repercussion. We provide the school kids with the "World Seismicity Map" to let them realize that earthquake disasters take place unequally. Then we let the kids jump in front of the seismometer with projecting the real-time data to the wall. Grouped kids contest the largest amplitude by carefully considering how to jump high but nail the landing with their teammates. Their jumps are printed out via portable printer and compared with the real earthquake which occurred even 600km away but still huge when printed out in the same scale. Actually, a magnitude 7 earthquake recorded 600km away needs an A0 paper when scaled with a jump of 10 kids printed in an A4 paper. They've got to understand what to do not to be killed with the great big energy. We also offer earthquake drills using the Earthquake Early Warning System (EEW System). An EEW System is officially introduced in 2007 by JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) to issue prompt alerts to provide several to several ten seconds before S-wave arrives. When hearing the alarm, school kids think fast to find a place to protect themselves. It is not always when they are in their classrooms but in the chemical lab, music room which does not have any desks to protect them, or in the PE class. Then in the science class, we demonstrate how the EEW System works. A 8m long wave propagation device made with spindles connected with springs is used to visualize the P- and S-waves. In the presentation, we would like to show the paper materials and sufficient movies.

  8. Application of τc*Pd for identifying damaging earthquakes for earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, P. L.; Lin, T. L.; Wu, Y. M.

    2014-12-01

    Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS) is an effective approach to mitigate earthquake damage. In this study, we used the seismic record by the Kiban Kyoshin network (KiK-net), because it has dense station coverage and co-located borehole strong-motion seismometers along with the free-surface strong-motion seismometers. We used inland earthquakes with moment magnitude (Mw) from 5.0 to 7.3 between 1998 and 2012. We choose 135 events and 10950 strong ground accelerograms recorded by the 696 strong ground accelerographs. Both the free-surface and the borehole data are used to calculate τc and Pd, respectively. The results show that τc*Pd has a good correlation with PGV and is a robust parameter for assessing the potential of damaging earthquake. We propose the value of τc*Pd determined from seconds after the arrival of P wave could be a threshold for the on-site type of EEW.

  9. Testing earthquake prediction algorithms: Statistically significant advance prediction of the largest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific, 1992-1997

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, V.G.; Romashkova, L.L.; Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Healy, J.H.

    1999-01-01

    Algorithms M8 and MSc (i.e., the Mendocino Scenario) were used in a real-time intermediate-term research prediction of the strongest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific seismic belt. Predictions are made by M8 first. Then, the areas of alarm are reduced by MSc at the cost that some earthquakes are missed in the second approximation of prediction. In 1992-1997, five earthquakes of magnitude 8 and above occurred in the test area: all of them were predicted by M8 and MSc identified correctly the locations of four of them. The space-time volume of the alarms is 36% and 18%, correspondingly, when estimated with a normalized product measure of empirical distribution of epicenters and uniform time. The statistical significance of the achieved results is beyond 99% both for M8 and MSc. For magnitude 7.5 + , 10 out of 19 earthquakes were predicted by M8 in 40% and five were predicted by M8-MSc in 13% of the total volume considered. This implies a significance level of 81% for M8 and 92% for M8-MSc. The lower significance levels might result from a global change in seismic regime in 1993-1996, when the rate of the largest events has doubled and all of them become exclusively normal or reversed faults. The predictions are fully reproducible; the algorithms M8 and MSc in complete formal definitions were published before we started our experiment [Keilis-Borok, V.I., Kossobokov, V.G., 1990. Premonitory activation of seismic flow: Algorithm M8, Phys. Earth and Planet. Inter. 61, 73-83; Kossobokov, V.G., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Smith, S.W., 1990. Localization of intermediate-term earthquake prediction, J. Geophys. Res., 95, 19763-19772; Healy, J.H., Kossobokov, V.G., Dewey, J.W., 1992. A test to evaluate the earthquake prediction algorithm, M8. U.S. Geol. Surv. OFR 92-401]. M8 is available from the IASPEI Software Library [Healy, J.H., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Lee, W.H.K. (Eds.), 1997. Algorithms for Earthquake Statistics and Prediction, Vol. 6. IASPEI Software Library]. ?? 1999 Elsevier

  10. Earthquake Early Warning Beta Users: Java, Modeling, and Mobile Apps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strauss, J. A.; Vinci, M.; Steele, W. P.; Allen, R. M.; Hellweg, M.

    2014-12-01

    Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) is a system that can provide a few to tens of seconds warning prior to ground shaking at a user's location. The goal and purpose of such a system is to reduce, or minimize, the damage, costs, and casualties resulting from an earthquake. A demonstration earthquake early warning system (ShakeAlert) is undergoing testing in the United States by the UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, Caltech, ETH Zurich, University of Washington, the USGS, and beta users in California and the Pacific Northwest. The beta users receive earthquake information very rapidly in real-time and are providing feedback on their experiences of performance and potential uses within their organization. Beta user interactions allow the ShakeAlert team to discern: which alert delivery options are most effective, what changes would make the UserDisplay more useful in a pre-disaster situation, and most importantly, what actions users plan to take for various scenarios. Actions could include: personal safety approaches, such as drop cover, and hold on; automated processes and procedures, such as opening elevator or fire stations doors; or situational awareness. Users are beginning to determine which policy and technological changes may need to be enacted, and funding requirements to implement their automated controls. The use of models and mobile apps are beginning to augment the basic Java desktop applet. Modeling allows beta users to test their early warning responses against various scenarios without having to wait for a real event. Mobile apps are also changing the possible response landscape, providing other avenues for people to receive information. All of these combine to improve business continuity and resiliency.

  11. Limitation of the Predominant-Period Estimator for Earthquake Early Warning and the Initial Rupture of Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamada, T.; Ide, S.

    2007-12-01

    Earthquake early warning is an important and challenging issue for the reduction of the seismic damage, especially for the mitigation of human suffering. One of the most important problems in earthquake early warning systems is how immediately we can estimate the final size of an earthquake after we observe the ground motion. It is relevant to the problem whether the initial rupture of an earthquake has some information associated with its final size. Nakamura (1988) developed the Urgent Earthquake Detection and Alarm System (UrEDAS). It calculates the predominant period of the P wave (τp) and estimates the magnitude of an earthquake immediately after the P wave arrival from the value of τpmax, or the maximum value of τp. The similar approach has been adapted by other earthquake alarm systems (e.g., Allen and Kanamori (2003)). To investigate the characteristic of the parameter τp and the effect of the length of the time window (TW) in the τpmax calculation, we analyze the high-frequency recordings of earthquakes at very close distances in the Mponeng mine in South Africa. We find that values of τpmax have upper and lower limits. For larger earthquakes whose source durations are longer than TW, the values of τpmax have an upper limit which depends on TW. On the other hand, the values for smaller earthquakes have a lower limit which is proportional to the sampling interval. For intermediate earthquakes, the values of τpmax are close to their typical source durations. These two limits and the slope for intermediate earthquakes yield an artificial final size dependence of τpmax in a wide size range. The parameter τpmax is useful for detecting large earthquakes and broadcasting earthquake early warnings. However, its dependence on the final size of earthquakes does not suggest that the earthquake rupture is deterministic. This is because τpmax does not always have a direct relation to the physical quantities of an earthquake.

  12. Three Millennia of Seemingly Time-Predictable Earthquakes, Tell Ateret

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agnon, Amotz; Marco, Shmuel; Ellenblum, Ronnie

    2014-05-01

    Among various idealized recurrence models of large earthquakes, the "time-predictable" model has a straightforward mechanical interpretation, consistent with simple friction laws. On a time-predictable fault, the time interval between an earthquake and its predecessor is proportional to the slip during the predecessor. The alternative "slip-predictable" model states that the slip during earthquake rupture is proportional to the preceding time interval. Verifying these models requires extended records of high precision data for both timing and amount of slip. The precision of paleoearthquake data can rarely confirm or rule out predictability, and recent papers argue for either time- or slip-predictable behavior. The Ateret site, on the trace of the Dead Sea fault at the Jordan Gorge segment, offers unique precision for determining space-time patterns. Five consecutive slip events, each associated with deformed and offset sets of walls, are correlated with historical earthquakes. Two correlations are based on detailed archaeological, historical, and numismatic evidence. The other three are tentative. The offsets of three of the events are determined with high precision; the other two are not as certain. Accepting all five correlations, the fault exhibits a striking time-predictable behavior, with a long term slip rate of 3 mm/yr. However, the 30 October 1759 ~0.5 m rupture predicts a subsequent rupture along the Jordan Gorge toward the end of the last century. We speculate that earthquakres on secondary faults (the 25 November 1759 on the Rachaya branch and the 1 January 1837 on the Roum branch, both M≥7) have disrupted the 3 kyr time-predictable pattern.

  13. Earthquake Prediction Research In Iceland, Applications For Hazard Assessments and Warnings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefansson, R.

    Earthquake prediction research in Iceland, applications for hazard assessments and warnings. The first multinational earthquake prediction research project in Iceland was the Eu- ropean Council encouraged SIL project of the Nordic countries, 1988-1995. The path selected for this research was to study the physics of crustal processes leading to earth- quakes. It was considered that small earthquakes, down to magnitude zero, were the most significant for this purpose, because of the detailed information which they pro- vide both in time and space. The test area for the project was the earthquake prone region of the South Iceland seismic zone (SISZ). The PRENLAB and PRENLAB-2 projects, 1996-2000 supported by the European Union were a direct continuation of the SIL project, but with a more multidisciplinary approach. PRENLAB stands for "Earthquake prediction research in a natural labo- ratory". The basic objective was to advance our understanding in general on where, when and how dangerous NH10earthquake motion might strike. Methods were devel- oped to study crustal processes and conditions, by microearthquake information, by continuous GPS, InSAR, theoretical modelling, fault mapping and paleoseismology. New algorithms were developed for short term warnings. A very useful short term warning was issued twice in the year 2000, one for a sudden start of an eruption in Volcano Hekla February 26, and the other 25 hours before a second (in a sequence of two) magnitude 6.6 (Ms) earthquake in the South Iceland seismic zone in June 21, with the correct location and approximate size. A formal short term warning, although not going to the public, was also issued before a magnitude 5 earthquake in November 1998. In the presentation it will be shortly described what these warnings were based on. A general hazard assessmnets was presented in scientific journals 10-15 years ago assessing within a few kilometers the location of the faults of the two 2000 earthquakes and suggesting

  14. Analysing earthquake slip models with the spatial prediction comparison test

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, L.; Mai, Paul Martin; Thingbaijam, Kiran Kumar; Razafindrakoto, H. N. T.; Genton, Marc G.

    2014-01-01

    Earthquake rupture models inferred from inversions of geophysical and/or geodetic data exhibit remarkable variability due to uncertainties in modelling assumptions, the use of different inversion algorithms, or variations in data selection and data processing. A robust statistical comparison of different rupture models obtained for a single earthquake is needed to quantify the intra-event variability, both for benchmark exercises and for real earthquakes. The same approach may be useful to characterize (dis-)similarities in events that are typically grouped into a common class of events (e.g. moderate-size crustal strike-slip earthquakes or tsunamigenic large subduction earthquakes). For this purpose, we examine the performance of the spatial prediction comparison test (SPCT), a statistical test developed to compare spatial (random) fields by means of a chosen loss function that describes an error relation between a 2-D field (‘model’) and a reference model. We implement and calibrate the SPCT approach for a suite of synthetic 2-D slip distributions, generated as spatial random fields with various characteristics, and then apply the method to results of a benchmark inversion exercise with known solution. We find the SPCT to be sensitive to different spatial correlations lengths, and different heterogeneity levels of the slip distributions. The SPCT approach proves to be a simple and effective tool for ranking the slip models with respect to a reference model.

  15. Analysing earthquake slip models with the spatial prediction comparison test

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, L.

    2014-11-10

    Earthquake rupture models inferred from inversions of geophysical and/or geodetic data exhibit remarkable variability due to uncertainties in modelling assumptions, the use of different inversion algorithms, or variations in data selection and data processing. A robust statistical comparison of different rupture models obtained for a single earthquake is needed to quantify the intra-event variability, both for benchmark exercises and for real earthquakes. The same approach may be useful to characterize (dis-)similarities in events that are typically grouped into a common class of events (e.g. moderate-size crustal strike-slip earthquakes or tsunamigenic large subduction earthquakes). For this purpose, we examine the performance of the spatial prediction comparison test (SPCT), a statistical test developed to compare spatial (random) fields by means of a chosen loss function that describes an error relation between a 2-D field (‘model’) and a reference model. We implement and calibrate the SPCT approach for a suite of synthetic 2-D slip distributions, generated as spatial random fields with various characteristics, and then apply the method to results of a benchmark inversion exercise with known solution. We find the SPCT to be sensitive to different spatial correlations lengths, and different heterogeneity levels of the slip distributions. The SPCT approach proves to be a simple and effective tool for ranking the slip models with respect to a reference model.

  16. 75 FR 63854 - National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-18

    ... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Geological Survey National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council...: Pursuant to Public Law 96-472, the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) will hold a 2... proposed earthquake predictions, on the completeness and scientific validity of the available data related...

  17. Rapid earthquake magnitude determination for Vrancea early warning system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marmureanu, Alexandru

    2009-01-01

    Due to the huge amount of recorded data, an automatic procedure was developed and used to test different methods to rapidly evaluate earthquake magnitude from the first seconds of the P wave. In order to test all the algorithms involved in detection and rapid earthquake magnitude estimation, several tests were performed, in order to avoid false alarms. A special detection algorithm was developed, that is based on the classical STA/LTA algorithm and tuned for early warning purpose. A method to rapidly estimate magnitude in 4 seconds from detection of P wave in the epicenter is proposed. The method was tested on al recorded data, and the magnitude error determination is acceptable taking into account that it is computed from only 3 stations in a very short time interval. (author)

  18. Tsunami Prediction and Earthquake Parameters Estimation in the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Sawlan, Zaid A

    2012-12-01

    Tsunami concerns have increased in the world after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. Consequently, tsunami models have been developed rapidly in the last few years. One of the advanced tsunami models is the GeoClaw tsunami model introduced by LeVeque (2011). This model is adaptive and consistent. Because of different sources of uncertainties in the model, observations are needed to improve model prediction through a data assimilation framework. Model inputs are earthquake parameters and topography. This thesis introduces a real-time tsunami forecasting method that combines tsunami model with observations using a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble Kalman smoother. The filter is used for state prediction while the smoother operates smoothing to estimate the earthquake parameters. This method reduces the error produced by uncertain inputs. In addition, state-parameter EnKF is implemented to estimate earthquake parameters. Although number of observations is small, estimated parameters generates a better tsunami prediction than the model. Methods and results of prediction experiments in the Red Sea are presented and the prospect of developing an operational tsunami prediction system in the Red Sea is discussed.

  19. Earthquake Early Warning: A Prospective User's Perspective (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishenko, S. P.; Savage, W. U.; Johnson, T.

    2009-12-01

    With more than 25 million people at risk from high hazard faults in California alone, Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) presents a promising public safety and emergency response tool. EEW represents the real-time end of an earthquake information spectrum which also includes near real-time notifications of earthquake location, magnitude, and shaking levels; as well as geographic information system (GIS)-based products for compiling and visually displaying processed earthquake data such as ShakeMap and ShakeCast. Improvements to and increased multi-national implementation of EEW have stimulated interest in how such information products could be used in the future. Lifeline organizations, consisting of utilities and transportation systems, can use both onsite and regional EEW information as part of their risk management and public safety programs. Regional EEW information can provide improved situational awareness to system operators before automatic system protection devices activate, and allow trained personnel to take precautionary measures. On-site EEW is used for earthquake-actuated automatic gas shutoff valves, triggered garage door openers at fire stations, system controls, etc. While there is no public policy framework for preemptive, precautionary electricity or gas service shutdowns by utilities in the United States, gas shut-off devices are being required at the building owner level by some local governments. In the transportation sector, high-speed rail systems have already demonstrated the ‘proof of concept’ for EEW in several countries, and more EEW systems are being installed. Recently the Bay Area Rapid Transit District (BART) began collaborating with the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) and others to assess the potential benefits of EEW technology to mass transit operations and emergency response in the San Francisco Bay region. A key issue in this assessment is that significant earthquakes are likely to occur close to or within the BART

  20. Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    An earthquake happens when two blocks of the earth suddenly slip past one another. Earthquakes strike suddenly, violently, and without warning at any time of the day or night. If an earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause ...

  1. Feasibility study of short-term earthquake prediction using ionospheric anomalies immediately before large earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heki, K.; He, L.

    2017-12-01

    We showed that positive and negative electron density anomalies emerge above the fault immediately before they rupture, 40/20/10 minutes before Mw9/8/7 earthquakes (Heki, 2011 GRL; Heki and Enomoto, 2013 JGR; He and Heki 2017 JGR). These signals are stronger for earthquake with larger Mw and under higher background vertical TEC (total electron conetent) (Heki and Enomoto, 2015 JGR). The epicenter, the positive and the negative anomalies align along the local geomagnetic field (He and Heki, 2016 GRL), suggesting electric fields within ionosphere are responsible for making the anomalies (Kuo et al., 2014 JGR; Kelley et al., 2017 JGR). Here we suppose the next Nankai Trough earthquake that may occur within a few tens of years in Southwest Japan, and will discuss if we can recognize its preseismic signatures in TEC by real-time observations with GNSS.During high geomagnetic activities, large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (LSTID) often propagate from auroral ovals toward mid-latitude regions, and leave similar signatures to preseismic anomalies. This is a main obstacle to use preseismic TEC changes for practical short-term earthquake prediction. In this presentation, we show that the same anomalies appeared 40 minutes before the mainshock above northern Australia, the geomagnetically conjugate point of the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake epicenter. This not only demonstrates that electric fields play a role in making the preseismic TEC anomalies, but also offers a possibility to discriminate preseismic anomalies from those caused by LSTID. By monitoring TEC in the conjugate areas in the two hemisphere, we can recognize anomalies with simultaneous onset as those caused by within-ionosphere electric fields (e.g. preseismic anomalies, night-time MSTID) and anomalies without simultaneous onset as gravity-wave origin disturbances (e.g. LSTID, daytime MSTID).

  2. The use of radon gas techniques for earthquake prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Hilal, M.

    1993-01-01

    This scientific article explains the applications of radon gas measurements in water and soil for monitoring fault activities and earthquake prediction. It also emphasizes, through some worldwide examples presented from Tashkent Basin in U.S.S.R. and from San Andreas fault in U.S.A, that the use of radon gas technique in fault originated water as well as in soil gases can be considered as an important geological-tool, within the general framework of earthquake prediction because of the coherent and time anomalous relationship between the density of alpha particles due to radon decay and between the tectonic activity level along fault zones. The article also indicates, and through the practical experience of the author, to the possibility of applying such techniques in certain parts of Syria. (author). 6 refs., 4 figs

  3. Ozone generation by rock fracture: Earthquake early warning?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baragiola, Raul A.; Dukes, Catherine A.; Hedges, Dawn [Engineering Physics, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia 22904 (United States)

    2011-11-14

    We report the production of up to 10 ppm ozone during crushing and grinding of typical terrestrial crust rocks in air, O{sub 2} and CO{sub 2} at atmospheric pressure, but not in helium or nitrogen. Ozone is formed by exoelectrons emitted by high electric fields, resulting from charge separation during fracture. The results suggest that ground level ozone produced by rock fracture, besides its potential health hazard, can be used for early warning in earthquakes and other catastrophes, such as landslides or land shifts in excavation tunnels and underground mines.

  4. CISN ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System Monitoring Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henson, I. H.; Allen, R. M.; Neuhauser, D. S.

    2015-12-01

    CISN ShakeAlert is a prototype earthquake early warning system being developed and tested by the California Integrated Seismic Network. The system has recently been expanded to support redundant data processing and communications. It now runs on six machines at three locations with ten Apache ActiveMQ message brokers linking together 18 waveform processors, 12 event association processes and 4 Decision Module alert processes. The system ingests waveform data from about 500 stations and generates many thousands of triggers per day, from which a small portion produce earthquake alerts. We have developed interactive web browser system-monitoring tools that display near real time state-of-health and performance information. This includes station availability, trigger statistics, communication and alert latencies. Connections to regional earthquake catalogs provide a rapid assessment of the Decision Module hypocenter accuracy. Historical performance can be evaluated, including statistics for hypocenter and origin time accuracy and alert time latencies for different time periods, magnitude ranges and geographic regions. For the ElarmS event associator, individual earthquake processing histories can be examined, including details of the transmission and processing latencies associated with individual P-wave triggers. Individual station trigger and latency statistics are available. Detailed information about the ElarmS trigger association process for both alerted events and rejected events is also available. The Google Web Toolkit and Map API have been used to develop interactive web pages that link tabular and geographic information. Statistical analysis is provided by the R-Statistics System linked to a PostgreSQL database.

  5. Earthquake Early Warning ShakeAlert System: Testing and certification platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Kohler, Monica D.; Given, Douglas; Guiwits, Stephen; Andrews, Jennifer; Meier, Men-Andrin; Ahmad, Mohammad; Henson, Ivan; Hartog, Renate; Smith, Deborah

    2017-01-01

    Earthquake early warning systems provide warnings to end users of incoming moderate to strong ground shaking from earthquakes. An earthquake early warning system, ShakeAlert, is providing alerts to beta end users in the western United States, specifically California, Oregon, and Washington. An essential aspect of the earthquake early warning system is the development of a framework to test modifications to code to ensure functionality and assess performance. In 2016, a Testing and Certification Platform (TCP) was included in the development of the Production Prototype version of ShakeAlert. The purpose of the TCP is to evaluate the robustness of candidate code that is proposed for deployment on ShakeAlert Production Prototype servers. TCP consists of two main components: a real‐time in situ test that replicates the real‐time production system and an offline playback system to replay test suites. The real‐time tests of system performance assess code optimization and stability. The offline tests comprise a stress test of candidate code to assess if the code is production ready. The test suite includes over 120 events including local, regional, and teleseismic historic earthquakes, recentering and calibration events, and other anomalous and potentially problematic signals. Two assessments of alert performance are conducted. First, point‐source assessments are undertaken to compare magnitude, epicentral location, and origin time with the Advanced National Seismic System Comprehensive Catalog, as well as to evaluate alert latency. Second, we describe assessment of the quality of ground‐motion predictions at end‐user sites by comparing predicted shaking intensities to ShakeMaps for historic events and implement a threshold‐based approach that assesses how often end users initiate the appropriate action, based on their ground‐shaking threshold. TCP has been developed to be a convenient streamlined procedure for objectively testing algorithms, and it has

  6. Earthquake early warning using P-waves that appear after initial S-waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodera, Y.

    2017-12-01

    As measures for underprediction for large earthquakes with finite faults and overprediction for multiple simultaneous earthquakes, Hoshiba (2013), Hoshiba and Aoki (2015), and Kodera et al. (2016) proposed earthquake early warning (EEW) methods that directly predict ground motion by computing the wave propagation of observed ground motion. These methods are expected to predict ground motion with a high accuracy even for complicated scenarios because these methods do not need source parameter estimation. On the other hand, there is room for improvement in their rapidity because they predict strong motion prediction mainly based on the observation of S-waves and do not explicitly use P-wave information available before the S-waves. In this research, we propose a real-time P-wave detector to incorporate P-wave information into these wavefield-estimation approaches. P-waves within a few seconds from the P-onsets are commonly used in many existing EEW methods. In addition, we focus on P-waves that may appear in the later part of seismic waves. Kurahashi and Irikura (2013) mentioned that P-waves radiated from strong motion generation areas (SMGAs) were recognizable after S-waves of the initial rupture point in the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake (Mw 9.0) (the Tohoku-oki earthquake). Detecting these P-waves would enhance the rapidity of prediction for the peak ground motion generated by SMGAs. We constructed a real-time P-wave detector that uses a polarity analysis. Using acceleration records in boreholes of KiK-net (band-pass filtered around 0.5-10 Hz with site amplification correction), the P-wave detector performed the principal component analysis with a sliding window of 4 s and calculated P-filter values (e.g. Ross and Ben-Zion, 2014). The application to the Tohoku-oki earthquake (Mw 9.0) showed that (1) peaks of P-filter that corresponded to SMGAs appeared in several stations located near SMGAs and (2) real-time seismic intensities (Kunugi et al

  7. Earthquake Early Warning in Japan - Result of recent two years -

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimoyama, T.; Doi, K.; Kiyomoto, M.; Hoshiba, M.

    2009-12-01

    Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA) started to provide Earthquake Early Warning(EEW) to the general public in October 2007. It was followed by provision of EEW to a limited number of users who understand the technical limit of EEW and can utilize it for automatic control from August 2006. Earthquake Early Warning in Japan definitely means information of estimated amplitude and arrival time of a strong ground motion after fault rupture occurred. In other words, the EEW provided by JMA is defined as a forecast of a strong ground motion before the strong motion arrival. EEW of JMA is to enable advance countermeasures to disasters caused by strong ground motions with providing a warning message of anticipating strong ground motion before the S wave arrival. However, due to its very short available time period, there should need some measures and ideas to provide rapidly EEW and utilize it properly. - EEW is issued to general public when the maximum seismic intensity 5 lower (JMA scale) or greater is expected. - EEW message contains origin time, epicentral region name, and names of areas (unit is about 1/3 to 1/4 of one prefecture) where seismic intensity 4 or greater is expected. Expected arrival time is not included because it differs substantially even in one unit area. - EEW is to be broadcast through the broadcasting media(TV, radio and City Administrative Disaster Management Radio), and is delivered to cellular phones through cell broadcast system. For those who would like to know the more precise estimation and smaller earthquake information at their point of their properties, JMA allows designated private companies to provide forecast of strong ground motion, in which the estimation of a seismic intensity as well as arrival time of S-wave are contained, at arbitrary places under the JMA’s technical assurance. From October, 2007 to August, 2009, JMA issued 11 warnings to general public expecting seismic intensity “5 lower” or greater, including M=7.2 inland

  8. Feasibility study of earthquake early warning (EEW) in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thelen, Weston A.; Hotovec-Ellis, Alicia J.; Bodin, Paul

    2016-09-30

    The effects of earthquake shaking on the population and infrastructure across the State of Hawaii could be catastrophic, and the high seismic hazard in the region emphasizes the likelihood of such an event. Earthquake early warning (EEW) has the potential to give several seconds of warning before strong shaking starts, and thus reduce loss of life and damage to property. The two approaches to EEW are (1) a network approach (such as ShakeAlert or ElarmS) where the regional seismic network is used to detect the earthquake and distribute the alarm and (2) a local approach where a critical facility has a single seismometer (or small array) and a warning system on the premises.The network approach, also referred to here as ShakeAlert or ElarmS, uses the closest stations within a regional seismic network to detect and characterize an earthquake. Most parameters used for a network approach require observations on multiple stations (typically 3 or 4), which slows down the alarm time slightly, but the alarms are generally more reliable than with single-station EEW approaches. The network approach also benefits from having stations closer to the source of any potentially damaging earthquake, so that alarms can be sent ahead to anyone who subscribes to receive the notification. Thus, a fully implemented ShakeAlert system can provide seconds of warning for both critical facilities and general populations ahead of damaging earthquake shaking.The cost to implement and maintain a fully operational ShakeAlert system is high compared to a local approach or single-station solution, but the benefits of a ShakeAlert system would be felt statewide—the warning times for strong shaking are potentially longer for most sources at most locations.The local approach, referred to herein as “single station,” uses measurements from a single seismometer to assess whether strong earthquake shaking can be expected. Because of the reliance on a single station, false alarms are more common than

  9. Development of earthquake early warning system using real time signal of broadband seismogram

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gunawan, Hendar; Puspito, Nanang T.; Ibrahim, Gunawan; Harjadi, Prih

    2012-01-01

    Earthquake pose serious threat of live and properties for urban area near subduction zone offshore and active fault on land. Jakarta and Bandung is an example of big city that no system of Earthquake early warning (EEW) event very high urbanization, and has many important infra structure in the area. The capital city is potentially high risk ground shaking. EEW can be usefull tool for reducing earthquake hazard, if spatial relation between cities and earthquake source is favorable for such warning and their citizens are properly trained to response early warning message. An EEW and rapid response system can provide the critical information needed to minimized lost of live and property and direct rescue. Earthquake ground shaking with magnitude M>6.0 from zone of Megathrust, southern of West Java should potentially damage in the area of west java especially Bandung and Jakarta City. This research development of EEW parameter such as amplitude displacement (Pd), rapid magnitude determination (M) and Peak ground Velocity (PGV). We explore the practical approach to EEW with the use of Broadband seismogram signal. Time effective EEW which epicenter from megathrust zone has potential to provide EEW in the area of west java such as Jakarta first ground shaking more or less 60 second later and strong shaking 118 second after EEW Alarm on CISI Station. EEW notification at potentially damage in the area of west java can be predicted from the characteristic of Pd > 0.5 cm, M> 6 and PGV > 10 cm/sec. GIS as a tool for presentation of hazard mapping in the affected area.

  10. Prediction of the occurrence of related strong earthquakes in Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vorobieva, I.A.; Panza, G.F.

    1993-06-01

    In the seismic flow it is often observed that a Strong Earthquake (SE), is followed by Related Strong Earthquakes (RSEs), which occur near the epicentre of the SE with origin time rather close to the origin time of the SE. The algorithm for the prediction of the occurrence of a RSE has been developed and applied for the first time to the seismicity data of the California-Nevada region and has been successfully tested in several regions of the World, the statistical significance of the result being 97%. So far, it has been possible to make five successful forward predictions, with no false alarms or failures to predict. The algorithm is applied here to the Italian territory, where the occurrence of RSEs is a particularly rare phenomenon. Our results show that the standard algorithm is successfully directly applicable without any adjustment of the parameters. Eleven SEs are considered. Of them, three are followed by a RSE, as predicted by the algorithm, eight SEs are not followed by a RSE, and the algorithm predicts this behaviour for seven of them, giving rise to only one false alarm. Since, in Italy, quite often the series of strong earthquakes are relatively short, the algorithm has been extended to handle such situation. The result of this experiment indicates that it is possible to attempt to test a SE, for the occurrence of a RSE, soon after the occurrence of the SE itself, performing timely ''preliminary'' recognition on reduced data sets. This fact, the high confidence level of the retrospective analysis, and the first successful forward predictions, made in different parts of the World, indicates that, even if additional tests are desirable, the algorithm can already be considered for routine application to Civil Defence. (author). Refs, 3 figs, 7 tabs

  11. Stabilizing intermediate-term medium-range earthquake predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kossobokov, V.G.; Romashkova, L.L.; Panza, G.F.; Peresan, A.

    2001-12-01

    A new scheme for the application of the intermediate-term medium-range earthquake prediction algorithm M8 is proposed. The scheme accounts for the natural distribution of seismic activity, eliminates the subjectivity in the positioning of the areas of investigation and provides additional stability of the predictions with respect to the original variant. According to the retroactive testing in Italy and adjacent regions, this improvement is achieved without any significant change of the alarm volume in comparison with the results published so far. (author)

  12. Method to Determine Appropriate Source Models of Large Earthquakes Including Tsunami Earthquakes for Tsunami Early Warning in Central America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanioka, Yuichiro; Miranda, Greyving Jose Arguello; Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Fujii, Yushiro

    2017-08-01

    Large earthquakes, such as the Mw 7.7 1992 Nicaragua earthquake, have occurred off the Pacific coasts of El Salvador and Nicaragua in Central America and have generated distractive tsunamis along these coasts. It is necessary to determine appropriate fault models before large tsunamis hit the coast. In this study, first, fault parameters were estimated from the W-phase inversion, and then an appropriate fault model was determined from the fault parameters and scaling relationships with a depth dependent rigidity. The method was tested for four large earthquakes, the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2001 El Salvador earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2004 El Astillero earthquake (Mw7.0), and the 2012 El Salvador-Nicaragua earthquake (Mw7.3), which occurred off El Salvador and Nicaragua in Central America. The tsunami numerical simulations were carried out from the determined fault models. We found that the observed tsunami heights, run-up heights, and inundation areas were reasonably well explained by the computed ones. Therefore, our method for tsunami early warning purpose should work to estimate a fault model which reproduces tsunami heights near the coast of El Salvador and Nicaragua due to large earthquakes in the subduction zone.

  13. Future of Earthquake Early Warning: Quantifying Uncertainty and Making Fast Automated Decisions for Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Stephen

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications. Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake. To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that

  14. Predictability of Landslide Timing From Quasi-Periodic Precursory Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Andrew F.

    2018-02-01

    Accelerating rates of geophysical signals are observed before a range of material failure phenomena. They provide insights into the physical processes controlling failure and the basis for failure forecasts. However, examples of accelerating seismicity before landslides are rare, and their behavior and forecasting potential are largely unknown. Here I use a Bayesian methodology to apply a novel gamma point process model to investigate a sequence of quasiperiodic repeating earthquakes preceding a large landslide at Nuugaatsiaq in Greenland in June 2017. The evolution in earthquake rate is best explained by an inverse power law increase with time toward failure, as predicted by material failure theory. However, the commonly accepted power law exponent value of 1.0 is inconsistent with the data. Instead, the mean posterior value of 0.71 indicates a particularly rapid acceleration toward failure and suggests that only relatively short warning times may be possible for similar landslides in future.

  15. Can radon gas measurements be used to predict earthquakes?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    After the tragic earthquake of April 6, 2009 in Aquila (Abruzzo), a debate has begun in Italy regarding the alleged prediction of this earthquake by a scientist working in the Gran Sasso National Laboratory, based on radon content measurements. Radon is a radioactive gas originating from the decay of natural radioactive elements present in the soil. IRSN specialists are actively involved in ongoing research projects on the impact of mechanical stresses on radon emissions from underground structures, and some of their results dating from several years ago are being brought up in this debate. These specialists are therefore currently presenting their perspective on the relationships between radon emissions and seismic activity, based on publications on the subject. (authors)

  16. Automated radon-thoron monitoring for earthquake prediction research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shapiro, M.H.; Melvin, J.D.; Copping, N.A.; Tombrello, T.A.; Whitcomb, J.H.

    1980-01-01

    This paper describes an automated instrument for earthquake prediction research which monitors the emission of radon ( 222 Rn) and thoron ( 220 Rn) from rock. The instrument uses aerosol filtration techniques and beta counting to determine radon and thoron levels. Data from the first year of operation of a field prototype suggest an annual cycle in the radon level at the site which is related to thermoelastic strains in the crust. Two anomalous increases in the radon level of short duration have been observed during the first year of operation. One anomaly appears to have been a precursor for a nearby earthquake (2.8 magnitude, Richter scale), and the other may have been associated with changing hydrological conditions resulting from heavy rainfall

  17. Practical Application of Site-Specific Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanda, Katsuhisa

    2014-01-01

    The development of an on-site warning system was reported. This system improves the timing of warnings and reduces the number of false alarms by improving the method of estimating the JMA seismic intensity using earthquake early warning system information based on site-specific data. Moreover, the development of an application for practical use in a construction company and an integrated system for realizing system shutdown was also reported. The concept of this system is based on the following. Seismic intensity is not distributed concentrically, and the attenuation relationship cannot explain the distribution of seismic intensity precisely. The standard method of seismic intensity prediction is construed as 'attenuation relationship + soil amplification factor', but this may be improved in the reformulation 'original attenuation relationship for each site + correction factors dependent on the epicenter location and depth' using a seismic intensity database that includes data on recent and historical earthquakes. (authors)

  18. Prediction of strong earthquake motions on rock surface using evolutionary process models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kameda, H.; Sugito, M.

    1984-01-01

    Stochastic process models are developed for prediction of strong earthquake motions for engineering design purposes. Earthquake motions with nonstationary frequency content are modeled by using the concept of evolutionary processes. Discussion is focused on the earthquake motions on bed rocks which are important for construction of nuclear power plants in seismic regions. On this basis, two earthquake motion prediction models are developed, one (EMP-IB Model) for prediction with given magnitude and epicentral distance, and the other (EMP-IIB Model) to account for the successive fault ruptures and the site location relative to the fault of great earthquakes. (Author) [pt

  19. Earthquake prediction research with plastic nuclear track detectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woith, H.; Enge, W.; Beaujean, R.; Oschlies, K.

    1988-01-01

    Since 1984 a German-Turkish project on earthquake prediction research has been operating at the North Anatolian fault zone in Turkey. Among many other parameters changes in Radon emission have also been investigated. Plastic nuclear track detectors (Kodak cellulose nitrate LR 115) are used to record alpha-particles emitted from Radon and Thoron atoms and their daughter isotopes. The detectors are replaced and analyzed every 3 weeks. Thus a quasi-continuous time sequence of the Radon soil gas emission is recorded. We present a comparison between measurements made with electronic counters and plastic track detectors. (author)

  20. Study of Earthquake Disaster Prediction System of Langfang city Based on GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Meng; Zhang, Dian; Li, Pan; Zhang, YunHui; Zhang, RuoFei

    2017-07-01

    In this paper, according to the status of China’s need to improve the ability of earthquake disaster prevention, this paper puts forward the implementation plan of earthquake disaster prediction system of Langfang city based on GIS. Based on the GIS spatial database, coordinate transformation technology, GIS spatial analysis technology and PHP development technology, the seismic damage factor algorithm is used to predict the damage of the city under different intensity earthquake disaster conditions. The earthquake disaster prediction system of Langfang city is based on the B / S system architecture. Degree and spatial distribution and two-dimensional visualization display, comprehensive query analysis and efficient auxiliary decision-making function to determine the weak earthquake in the city and rapid warning. The system has realized the transformation of the city’s earthquake disaster reduction work from static planning to dynamic management, and improved the city’s earthquake and disaster prevention capability.

  1. Earthquake Early Warning Management based on Client-Server using Primary Wave data from Vibrating Sensor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laumal, F. E.; Nope, K. B. N.; Peli, Y. S.

    2018-01-01

    Early warning is a warning mechanism before an actual incident occurs, can be implemented on natural events such as tsunamis or earthquakes. Earthquakes are classified in tectonic and volcanic types depend on the source and nature. The tremor in the form of energy propagates in all directions as Primary and Secondary waves. Primary wave as initial earthquake vibrations propagates longitudinally, while the secondary wave propagates like as a sinusoidal wave after Primary, destructive and as a real earthquake. To process the primary vibration data captured by the earthquake sensor, a network management required client computer to receives primary data from sensors, authenticate and forward to a server computer to set up an early warning system. With the water propagation concept, a method of early warning system has been determined in which some sensors are located on the same line, sending initial vibrations as primary data on the same scale and the server recommended to the alarm sound as an early warning.

  2. Radon monitoring and its application for earthquake prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramchandran, T.V.; Shaikh, A.N.; Khan, A.H.; Mayya, Y.S.; Puranik, V.D.; Venkat Raj, V.

    2004-12-01

    Concentrations ofa wide range of terrestrial gases containing radionuclides like 222 Rn (Radon), H 2 (Hydrogen), Hg (Mercury), CO 2 (Carbon dioxide) and He 4 (Helium) in ground water and soil air have commonly been found to be anomalously high along active faults, suggesting that these faults may be the path for least resistance for the out gassing processes of the solid earth. Among the naturally occurring radionucludes, the 238 U decay series has received great attention in connection with the earthquake prediction and monitoring research all over the world. Due to its nearly ubiquitous occurrence, appreciable abundance, chemical inactivity and convenient half-life (3.823 d), 222 Rn in the 238 U series is the most extensively studied one in this regard. In this report, a brief account of the application of 222 Rn monitoring carried out all over the world, studies carried out in India, modeling of earthquake predictions, measurement techniques, measuring equipments, its availability in India, Indian radon monitoring programme and its prospects are presented. (author)

  3. Future Developments for the Earthquake Early Warning System following the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamada, M.; Mori, J. J.

    2011-12-01

    The 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake (Mw9.0) caused significant damage over a large area of northeastern Honshu. An earthquake early warning was issued to the public in the Tohoku region about 8 seconds after the first P-arrival, which is 31 seconds after the origin time. There was no 'blind zone', and warnings were received at all locations before S-wave arrivals, since the earthquake was fairly far offshore. Although the early warning message was properly reported in Tohoku region which was the most severely affected area, a message was not sent to the more distant Tokyo region because the intensity was underestimated. . This underestimation was because the magnitude determination in the first few seconds was relatively small (Mj8.1)., and there was no consideration of a finite fault with a long length. Another significant issue is that warnings were sometimes not properly provided for aftershocks. Immediately following the earthquake, the waveforms of some large aftershocks were contaminated by long-period surface waves from the mainshock, which made it difficult to pick P-wave arrivals. Also, correctly distinguishing and locating later aftershocks was sometimes difficult, when multiple events occurred within a short period of time. This masinhock begins with relatively small moment release for the first 10 s . Since the amplitude of the initial waveforms is small, most methods that use amplitudes and periods of the P-wave (e.g. Wu and Kanamori, 2005) cannot correctly determine the size of the4 earthquake in the first several seconds. The current JMA system uses the peak displacement amplitude for the magnitude estimation, and the magnitude saturated at about M8 1 minute after the first P-wave arrival. . Magnitudes of smaller earthquakes can be correctly identified from the first few seconds of P- or S-wave arrivals, but this M9 event cannot be characterized in such a short time. The only way to correctly characterize the size of the Tohoku

  4. Testing for the 'predictability' of dynamically triggered earthquakes in The Geysers geothermal field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aiken, Chastity; Meng, Xiaofeng; Hardebeck, Jeanne

    2018-03-01

    The Geysers geothermal field is well known for being susceptible to dynamic triggering of earthquakes by large distant earthquakes, owing to the introduction of fluids for energy production. Yet, it is unknown if dynamic triggering of earthquakes is 'predictable' or whether dynamic triggering could lead to a potential hazard for energy production. In this paper, our goal is to investigate the characteristics of triggering and the physical conditions that promote triggering to determine whether or not triggering is in anyway foreseeable. We find that, at present, triggering in The Geysers is not easily 'predictable' in terms of when and where based on observable physical conditions. However, triggered earthquake magnitude positively correlates with peak imparted dynamic stress, and larger dynamic stresses tend to trigger sequences similar to mainshock-aftershock sequences. Thus, we may be able to 'predict' what size earthquakes to expect at The Geysers following a large distant earthquake.

  5. Study on China’s Earthquake Prediction by Mathematical Analysis and its Application in Catastrophe Insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jianjun, X.; Bingjie, Y.; Rongji, W.

    2018-03-01

    The purpose of this paper was to improve catastrophe insurance level. Firstly, earthquake predictions were carried out using mathematical analysis method. Secondly, the foreign catastrophe insurances’ policies and models were compared. Thirdly, the suggestions on catastrophe insurances to China were discussed. The further study should be paid more attention on the earthquake prediction by introducing big data.

  6. Prediction of site specific ground motion for large earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamae, Katsuhiro; Irikura, Kojiro; Fukuchi, Yasunaga.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper, we apply the semi-empirical synthesis method by IRIKURA (1983, 1986) to the estimation of site specific ground motion using accelerograms observed at Kumatori in Osaka prefecture. Target earthquakes used here are a comparatively distant earthquake (Δ=95 km, M=5.6) caused by the YAMASAKI fault and a near earthquake (Δ=27 km, M=5.6). The results obtained are as follows. 1) The accelerograms from the distant earthquake (M=5.6) are synthesized using the aftershock records (M=4.3) for 1983 YAMASAKI fault earthquake whose source parameters have been obtained by other authors from the hypocentral distribution of the aftershocks. The resultant synthetic motions show a good agreement with the observed ones. 2) The synthesis for a near earthquake (M=5.6, we call this target earthquake) are made using a small earthquake which occurred in the neighborhood of the target earthquake. Here, we apply two methods for giving the parameters for synthesis. One method is to use the parameters of YAMASAKI fault earthquake which has the same magnitude as the target earthquake, and the other is to use the parameters obtained from several existing empirical formulas. The resultant synthetic motion with the former parameters shows a good agreement with the observed one, but that with the latter does not. 3) We estimate the source parameters from the source spectra of several earthquakes which have been observed in this site. Consequently we find that the small earthquakes (M<4) as Green's functions should be carefully used because the stress drops are not constant. 4) We propose that we should designate not only the magnitudes but also seismic moments of the target earthquake and the small earthquake. (J.P.N.)

  7. Demonstration of the Cascadia G‐FAST geodetic earthquake early warning system for the Nisqually, Washington, earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowell, Brendan; Schmidt, David; Bodin, Paul; Vidale, John; Gomberg, Joan S.; Hartog, Renate; Kress, Victor; Melbourne, Tim; Santillian, Marcelo; Minson, Sarah E.; Jamison, Dylan

    2016-01-01

    A prototype earthquake early warning (EEW) system is currently in development in the Pacific Northwest. We have taken a two‐stage approach to EEW: (1) detection and initial characterization using strong‐motion data with the Earthquake Alarm Systems (ElarmS) seismic early warning package and (2) the triggering of geodetic modeling modules using Global Navigation Satellite Systems data that help provide robust estimates of large‐magnitude earthquakes. In this article we demonstrate the performance of the latter, the Geodetic First Approximation of Size and Time (G‐FAST) geodetic early warning system, using simulated displacements for the 2001Mw 6.8 Nisqually earthquake. We test the timing and performance of the two G‐FAST source characterization modules, peak ground displacement scaling, and Centroid Moment Tensor‐driven finite‐fault‐slip modeling under ideal, latent, noisy, and incomplete data conditions. We show good agreement between source parameters computed by G‐FAST with previously published and postprocessed seismic and geodetic results for all test cases and modeling modules, and we discuss the challenges with integration into the U.S. Geological Survey’s ShakeAlert EEW system.

  8. Earthquake Early Warning: New Strategies for Seismic Hardware

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allardice, S.; Hill, P.

    2017-12-01

    Implementing Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS) triggering algorithms into seismic networks has been a hot topic of discussion for some years now. With digitizer technology now available, such as the Güralp Minimus, with on average 40-60ms delay time (latency) from earthquake origin to issuing an alert the next step is to provide network operators with a simple interface for on board parameter calculations from a seismic station. A voting mechanism is implemented on board which mitigates the risk of false positives being communicated. Each Minimus can be configured to with a `score' from various sources i.e. Z channel on seismometer, N/S E/W channels on accelerometer and MEMS inside Minimus. If the score exceeds the set threshold then an alert is sent to the `Master Minimus'. The Master Minimus within the network will also be configured as to when the alert should be issued i.e. at least 3 stations must have triggered. Industry standard algorithms focus around the calculation of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), Peak Ground Velocity (PGV), Peak Ground Displacement (PGD) and C. Calculating these single station parameters on-board in order to stream only the results could help network operators with possible issues, such as restricted bandwidth. Developments on the Minimus allow these parameters to be calculated and distributed through Common Alert Protocol (CAP). CAP is the XML based data format used for exchanging and describing public warnings and emergencies. Whenever the trigger conditions are met the Minimus can send a signed UDP packet to the configured CAP receiver which can then send the alert via SMS, e-mail or CAP forwarding. Increasing network redundancy is also a consideration when developing these features, therefore the forwarding CAP message can be sent to multiple destinations. This allows for a hierarchical approach by which the single station (or network) parameters can be streamed to another Minimus, or data centre, or both, so that there is no

  9. An Envelope Based Feedback Control System for Earthquake Early Warning: Reality Check Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heaton, T. H.; Karakus, G.; Beck, J. L.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquake early warning systems are, in general, designed to be open loop control systems in such a way that the output, i.e., the warning messages, only depend on the input, i.e., recorded ground motions, up to the moment when the message is issued in real-time. We propose an algorithm, which is called Reality Check Algorithm (RCA), which would assess the accuracy of issued warning messages, and then feed the outcome of the assessment back into the system. Then, the system would modify its messages if necessary. That is, we are proposing to convert earthquake early warning systems into feedback control systems by integrating them with RCA. RCA works by continuously monitoring and comparing the observed ground motions' envelopes to the predicted envelopes of Virtual Seismologist (Cua 2005). Accuracy of magnitude and location (both spatial and temporal) estimations of the system are assessed separately by probabilistic classification models, which are trained by a Sparse Bayesian Learning technique called Automatic Relevance Determination prior.

  10. ShakeAlert—An earthquake early warning system for the United States west coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, Erin R.; Given, Douglas D.; Jones, Lucile M.

    2014-08-29

    Earthquake early warning systems use earthquake science and the technology of monitoring systems to alert devices and people when shaking waves generated by an earthquake are expected to arrive at their location. The seconds to minutes of advance warning can allow people and systems to take actions to protect life and property from destructive shaking. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with several partners, has been working to develop an early warning system for the United States. ShakeAlert, a system currently under development, is designed to cover the West Coast States of California, Oregon, and Washington.

  11. Smartphone-Based Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning in Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, B. A.; Baez, J. C.; Ericksen, T.; Barrientos, S. E.; Minson, S. E.; Duncan, C.; Guillemot, C.; Smith, D.; Boese, M.; Cochran, E. S.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Glennie, C. L.; Dueitt, J.; Parra, H.

    2016-12-01

    Many locations around the world face high seismic hazard, but do not have the resources required to establish traditional earthquake and tsunami warning systems (E/TEW) that utilize scientific grade seismological sensors. MEMs accelerometers and GPS chips embedded in, or added inexpensively to, smartphones are sensitive enough to provide robust E/TEW if they are deployed in sufficient numbers. We report on a pilot project in Chile, one of the most productive earthquake regions world-wide. There, magnitude 7.5+ earthquakes occurring roughly every 1.5 years and larger tsunamigenic events pose significant local and trans-Pacific hazard. The smartphone-based network described here is being deployed in parallel to the build-out of a scientific-grade network for E/TEW. Our sensor package comprises a smartphone with internal MEMS and an external GPS chipset that provides satellite-based augmented positioning and phase-smoothing. Each station is independent of local infrastructure, they are solar-powered and rely on cellular SIM cards for communications. An Android app performs initial onboard processing and transmits both accelerometer and GPS data to a server employing the FinDer-BEFORES algorithm to detect earthquakes, producing an acceleration-based line source model for smaller magnitude earthquakes or a joint seismic-geodetic finite-fault distributed slip model for sufficiently large magnitude earthquakes. Either source model provides accurate ground shaking forecasts, while distributed slip models for larger offshore earthquakes can be used to infer seafloor deformation for local tsunami warning. The network will comprise 50 stations by Sept. 2016 and 100 stations by Dec. 2016. Since Nov. 2015, batch processing has detected, located, and estimated the magnitude for Mw>5 earthquakes. Operational since June, 2016, we have successfully detected two earthquakes > M5 (M5.5, M5.1) that occurred within 100km of our network while producing zero false alarms.

  12. Flicker-noise Spectroscopy In Earthquake Prediction Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desherevsky, A. V.; Lukk, A. A.; Sidorin, A. Y.; Timashev, S. F.

    It has been found out that a two-component model including a seasonal and a flicker- noise components occurs to be a more adequate model of statistical structure of time series of long-term geophysical observations' data. Unlike a white noise which sig- nifies absence of any relation between the system's current dynamics and past events in it, presence of flicker-noise indicates that such a relation in the system does ex- ist. Flicker-noise pertains a property of scale invariance. It seems natural to relate self-similarity of statistical properties of geophysical parameters' variations on dif- ferent scales to self-similar (fractal) properties of geophysical medium. At the same time self-similar time variations of geophysical parameters may indicate to presence of deterministic chaos in geophysical system's evolution. An important element of a proposed approach is application of stochastic models of preparation of each concrete large seismic event. Instead of regular, for example bay-form precursor variations, occurrence of precursors of another kind associated in particular with variation in parameter fluctuations should be expected. To solve a problem of large earthquakes prediction we use Flicker-Noise Spectroscopy (FNS) as a basis of a new approach proposed by us. The basis of the FNS methodology is a postulate about the impor- tant information significance of sequences of various dynamic irregularities (bursts or spikes, jumps with different characteristic values, discontinuities of derivatives) of the measured temporal, spatial and energetic variables on each level of hierarchical orga- nization of studied systems. A proposed new method using integral values of analyzed signals - power spectra and different moments ("structural functions") of a different order as information relations, has demonstrated principally new opportunities in a search of large earthquake precursors already at a preliminary stage of some data analysis. This research was supported by

  13. Reducing process delays for real-time earthquake parameter estimation - An application of KD tree to large databases for Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Lucy; Andrews, Jennifer; Heaton, Thomas

    2018-05-01

    Earthquake parameter estimations using nearest neighbor searching among a large database of observations can lead to reliable prediction results. However, in the real-time application of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems, the accurate prediction using a large database is penalized by a significant delay in the processing time. We propose to use a multidimensional binary search tree (KD tree) data structure to organize large seismic databases to reduce the processing time in nearest neighbor search for predictions. We evaluated the performance of KD tree on the Gutenberg Algorithm, a database-searching algorithm for EEW. We constructed an offline test to predict peak ground motions using a database with feature sets of waveform filter-bank characteristics, and compare the results with the observed seismic parameters. We concluded that large database provides more accurate predictions of the ground motion information, such as peak ground acceleration, velocity, and displacement (PGA, PGV, PGD), than source parameters, such as hypocenter distance. Application of the KD tree search to organize the database reduced the average searching process by 85% time cost of the exhaustive method, allowing the method to be feasible for real-time implementation. The algorithm is straightforward and the results will reduce the overall time of warning delivery for EEW.

  14. MyShake: A smartphone seismic network for earthquake early warning and beyond.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Qingkai; Allen, Richard M; Schreier, Louis; Kwon, Young-Woo

    2016-02-01

    Large magnitude earthquakes in urban environments continue to kill and injure tens to hundreds of thousands of people, inflicting lasting societal and economic disasters. Earthquake early warning (EEW) provides seconds to minutes of warning, allowing people to move to safe zones and automated slowdown and shutdown of transit and other machinery. The handful of EEW systems operating around the world use traditional seismic and geodetic networks that exist only in a few nations. Smartphones are much more prevalent than traditional networks and contain accelerometers that can also be used to detect earthquakes. We report on the development of a new type of seismic system, MyShake, that harnesses personal/private smartphone sensors to collect data and analyze earthquakes. We show that smartphones can record magnitude 5 earthquakes at distances of 10 km or less and develop an on-phone detection capability to separate earthquakes from other everyday shakes. Our proof-of-concept system then collects earthquake data at a central site where a network detection algorithm confirms that an earthquake is under way and estimates the location and magnitude in real time. This information can then be used to issue an alert of forthcoming ground shaking. MyShake could be used to enhance EEW in regions with traditional networks and could provide the only EEW capability in regions without. In addition, the seismic waveforms recorded could be used to deliver rapid microseism maps, study impacts on buildings, and possibly image shallow earth structure and earthquake rupture kinematics.

  15. Potentially induced earthquakes during the early twentieth century in the Los Angeles Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hough, Susan E.; Page, Morgan T.

    2016-01-01

    Recent studies have presented evidence that early to mid‐twentieth‐century earthquakes in Oklahoma and Texas were likely induced by fossil fuel production and/or injection of wastewater (Hough and Page, 2015; Frohlich et al., 2016). Considering seismicity from 1935 onward, Hauksson et al. (2015) concluded that there is no evidence for significant induced activity in the greater Los Angeles region between 1935 and the present. To explore a possible association between earthquakes prior to 1935 and oil and gas production, we first revisit the historical catalog and then review contemporary oil industry activities. Although early industry activities did not induce large numbers of earthquakes, we present evidence for an association between the initial oil boom in the greater Los Angeles area and earthquakes between 1915 and 1932, including the damaging 22 June 1920 Inglewood and 8 July 1929 Whittier earthquakes. We further consider whether the 1933 Mw 6.4 Long Beach earthquake might have been induced, and show some evidence that points to a causative relationship between the earthquake and activities in the Huntington Beach oil field. The hypothesis that the Long Beach earthquake was either induced or triggered by an foreshock cannot be ruled out. Our results suggest that significant earthquakes in southern California during the early twentieth century might have been associated with industry practices that are no longer employed (i.e., production without water reinjection), and do not necessarily imply a high likelihood of induced earthquakes at the present time.

  16. Synergistic combination of systems for structural health monitoring and earthquake early warning for structural health prognosis and diagnosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Stephen; Beck, James L.

    2012-04-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are currently operating nationwide in Japan and are in beta-testing in California. Such a system detects an earthquake initiation using online signals from a seismic sensor network and broadcasts a warning of the predicted location and magnitude a few seconds to a minute or so before an earthquake hits a site. Such a system can be used synergistically with installed structural health monitoring (SHM) systems to enhance pre-event prognosis and post-event diagnosis of structural health. For pre-event prognosis, the EEW system information can be used to make probabilistic predictions of the anticipated damage to a structure using seismic loss estimation methodologies from performance-based earthquake engineering. These predictions can support decision-making regarding the activation of appropriate mitigation systems, such as stopping traffic from entering a bridge that has a predicted high probability of damage. Since the time between warning and arrival of the strong shaking is very short, probabilistic predictions must be rapidly calculated and the decision making automated for the mitigation actions. For post-event diagnosis, the SHM sensor data can be used in Bayesian updating of the probabilistic damage predictions with the EEW predictions as a prior. Appropriate Bayesian methods for SHM have been published. In this paper, we use pre-trained surrogate models (or emulators) based on machine learning methods to make fast damage and loss predictions that are then used in a cost-benefit decision framework for activation of a mitigation measure. A simple illustrative example of an infrastructure application is presented.

  17. VAN method of short-term earthquake prediction shows promise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uyeda, Seiya

    Although optimism prevailed in the 1970s, the present consensus on earthquake prediction appears to be quite pessimistic. However, short-term prediction based on geoelectric potential monitoring has stood the test of time in Greece for more than a decade [VarotsosandKulhanek, 1993] Lighthill, 1996]. The method used is called the VAN method.The geoelectric potential changes constantly due to causes such as magnetotelluric effects, lightning, rainfall, leakage from manmade sources, and electrochemical instabilities of electrodes. All of this noise must be eliminated before preseismic signals are identified, if they exist at all. The VAN group apparently accomplished this task for the first time. They installed multiple short (100-200m) dipoles with different lengths in both north-south and east-west directions and long (1-10 km) dipoles in appropriate orientations at their stations (one of their mega-stations, Ioannina, for example, now has 137 dipoles in operation) and found that practically all of the noise could be eliminated by applying a set of criteria to the data.

  18. Turning the rumor of May 11, 2011 earthquake prediction In Rome, Italy, into an information day on earthquake hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amato, A.; Cultrera, G.; Margheriti, L.; Nostro, C.; Selvaggi, G.; INGVterremoti Team

    2011-12-01

    A devastating earthquake had been predicted for May 11, 2011 in Rome. This prediction was never released officially by anyone, but it grew up in the Internet and was amplified by media. It was erroneously ascribed to Raffaele Bendandi, an Italian self-taught natural scientist who studied planetary motions. Indeed, around May 11, 2011, a planetary alignment was really expected and this contributed to give credibility to the earthquake prediction among people. During the previous months, INGV was overwhelmed with requests for information about this supposed prediction by Roman inhabitants and tourists. Given the considerable mediatic impact of this expected earthquake, INGV decided to organize an Open Day in its headquarter in Rome for people who wanted to learn more about the Italian seismicity and the earthquake as natural phenomenon. The Open Day was preceded by a press conference two days before, in which we talked about this prediction, we presented the Open Day, and we had a scientific discussion with journalists about the earthquake prediction and more in general on the real problem of seismic risk in Italy. About 40 journalists from newspapers, local and national tv's, press agencies and web news attended the Press Conference and hundreds of articles appeared in the following days, advertising the 11 May Open Day. The INGV opened to the public all day long (9am - 9pm) with the following program: i) meetings with INGV researchers to discuss scientific issues; ii) visits to the seismic monitoring room, open 24h/7 all year; iii) guided tours through interactive exhibitions on earthquakes and Earth's deep structure; iv) lectures on general topics from the social impact of rumors to seismic risk reduction; v) 13 new videos on channel YouTube.com/INGVterremoti to explain the earthquake process and give updates on various aspects of seismic monitoring in Italy; vi) distribution of books and brochures. Surprisingly, more than 3000 visitors came to visit INGV

  19. A forecast experiment of earthquake activity in Japan under Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirata, N.; Yokoi, S.; Nanjo, K. Z.; Tsuruoka, H.

    2012-04-01

    One major focus of the current Japanese earthquake prediction research program (2009-2013), which is now integrated with the research program for prediction of volcanic eruptions, is to move toward creating testable earthquake forecast models. For this purpose we started an experiment of forecasting earthquake activity in Japan under the framework of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) through an international collaboration. We established the CSEP Testing Centre, an infrastructure to encourage researchers to develop testable models for Japan, and to conduct verifiable prospective tests of their model performance. We started the 1st earthquake forecast testing experiment in Japan within the CSEP framework. We use the earthquake catalogue maintained and provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The experiment consists of 12 categories, with 4 testing classes with different time spans (1 day, 3 months, 1 year, and 3 years) and 3 testing regions called "All Japan," "Mainland," and "Kanto." A total of 105 models were submitted, and are currently under the CSEP official suite of tests for evaluating the performance of forecasts. The experiments were completed for 92 rounds for 1-day, 6 rounds for 3-month, and 3 rounds for 1-year classes. For 1-day testing class all models passed all the CSEP's evaluation tests at more than 90% rounds. The results of the 3-month testing class also gave us new knowledge concerning statistical forecasting models. All models showed a good performance for magnitude forecasting. On the other hand, observation is hardly consistent in space distribution with most models when many earthquakes occurred at a spot. Now we prepare the 3-D forecasting experiment with a depth range of 0 to 100 km in Kanto region. The testing center is improving an evaluation system for 1-day class experiment to finish forecasting and testing results within one day. The special issue of 1st part titled Earthquake Forecast

  20. Earthquake prediction rumors can help in building earthquake awareness: the case of May the 11th 2011 in Rome (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amato, A.; Arcoraci, L.; Casarotti, E.; Cultrera, G.; Di Stefano, R.; Margheriti, L.; Nostro, C.; Selvaggi, G.; May-11 Team

    2012-04-01

    Banner headlines in an Italian newspaper read on May 11, 2011: "Absence boom in offices: the urban legend in Rome become psychosis". This was the effect of a large-magnitude earthquake prediction in Rome for May 11, 2011. This prediction was never officially released, but it grew up in Internet and was amplified by media. It was erroneously ascribed to Raffaele Bendandi, an Italian self-taught natural scientist who studied planetary motions and related them to earthquakes. Indeed, around May 11, 2011, there was a planetary alignment and this increased the earthquake prediction credibility. Given the echo of this earthquake prediction, INGV decided to organize on May 11 (the same day the earthquake was predicted to happen) an Open Day in its headquarter in Rome to inform on the Italian seismicity and the earthquake physics. The Open Day was preceded by a press conference two days before, attended by about 40 journalists from newspapers, local and national TV's, press agencies and web news magazines. Hundreds of articles appeared in the following two days, advertising the 11 May Open Day. On May 11 the INGV headquarter was peacefully invaded by over 3,000 visitors from 9am to 9pm: families, students, civil protection groups and many journalists. The program included conferences on a wide variety of subjects (from social impact of rumors to seismic risk reduction) and distribution of books and brochures, in addition to several activities: meetings with INGV researchers to discuss scientific issues, visits to the seismic monitoring room (open 24h/7 all year), guided tours through interactive exhibitions on earthquakes and Earth's deep structure. During the same day, thirteen new videos have also been posted on our youtube/INGVterremoti channel to explain the earthquake process and hazard, and to provide real time periodic updates on seismicity in Italy. On May 11 no large earthquake happened in Italy. The initiative, built up in few weeks, had a very large feedback

  1. Real-time earthquake monitoring: Early warning and rapid response

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    A panel was established to investigate the subject of real-time earthquake monitoring (RTEM) and suggest recommendations on the feasibility of using a real-time earthquake warning system to mitigate earthquake damage in regions of the United States. The findings of the investigation and the related recommendations are described in this report. A brief review of existing real-time seismic systems is presented with particular emphasis given to the current California seismic networks. Specific applications of a real-time monitoring system are discussed along with issues related to system deployment and technical feasibility. In addition, several non-technical considerations are addressed including cost-benefit analysis, public perceptions, safety, and liability.

  2. Earthquake early warning system using real-time signal processing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leach, R.R. Jr.; Dowla, F.U.

    1996-02-01

    An earthquake warning system has been developed to provide a time series profile from which vital parameters such as the time until strong shaking begins, the intensity of the shaking, and the duration of the shaking, can be derived. Interaction of different types of ground motion and changes in the elastic properties of geological media throughout the propagation path result in a highly nonlinear function. We use neural networks to model these nonlinearities and develop learning techniques for the analysis of temporal precursors occurring in the emerging earthquake seismic signal. The warning system is designed to analyze the first-arrival from the three components of an earthquake signal and instantaneously provide a profile of impending ground motion, in as little as 0.3 sec after first ground motion is felt at the sensors. For each new data sample, at a rate of 25 samples per second, the complete profile of the earthquake is updated. The profile consists of a magnitude-related estimate as well as an estimate of the envelope of the complete earthquake signal. The envelope provides estimates of damage parameters, such as time until peak ground acceleration (PGA) and duration. The neural network based system is trained using seismogram data from more than 400 earthquakes recorded in southern California. The system has been implemented in hardware using silicon accelerometers and a standard microprocessor. The proposed warning units can be used for site-specific applications, distributed networks, or to enhance existing distributed networks. By producing accurate, and informative warnings, the system has the potential to significantly minimize the hazards of catastrophic ground motion. Detailed system design and performance issues, including error measurement in a simple warning scenario are discussed in detail.

  3. QuakeUp: An advanced tool for a network-based Earthquake Early Warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zollo, Aldo; Colombelli, Simona; Caruso, Alessandro; Elia, Luca; Brondi, Piero; Emolo, Antonio; Festa, Gaetano; Martino, Claudio; Picozzi, Matteo

    2017-04-01

    The currently developed and operational Earthquake Early warning, regional systems ground on the assumption of a point-like earthquake source model and 1-D ground motion prediction equations to estimate the earthquake impact. Here we propose a new network-based method which allows for issuing an alert based upon the real-time mapping of the Potential Damage Zone (PDZ), e.g. the epicentral area where the peak ground velocity is expected to exceed the damaging or strong shaking levels with no assumption about the earthquake rupture extent and spatial variability of ground motion. The platform includes the most advanced techniques for a refined estimation of the main source parameters (earthquake location and magnitude) and for an accurate prediction of the expected ground shaking level. The new software platform (QuakeUp) is under development at the Seismological Laboratory (RISSC-Lab) of the Department of Physics at the University of Naples Federico II, in collaboration with the academic spin-off company RISS s.r.l., recently gemmated by the research group. The system processes the 3-component, real-time ground acceleration and velocity data streams at each station. The signal quality is preliminary assessed by checking the signal-to-noise ratio both in acceleration, velocity and displacement and through dedicated filtering algorithms. For stations providing high quality data, the characteristic P-wave period (τ_c) and the P-wave displacement, velocity and acceleration amplitudes (P_d, Pv and P_a) are jointly measured on a progressively expanded P-wave time window. The evolutionary measurements of the early P-wave amplitude and characteristic period at stations around the source allow to predict the geometry and extent of PDZ, but also of the lower shaking intensity regions at larger epicentral distances. This is done by correlating the measured P-wave amplitude with the Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) and Instrumental Intensity (I_MM) and by mapping the measured and

  4. Predicting earthquakes by analyzing accelerating precursory seismic activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varnes, D.J.

    1989-01-01

    During 11 sequences of earthquakes that in retrospect can be classed as foreshocks, the accelerating rate at which seismic moment is released follows, at least in part, a simple equation. This equation (1) is {Mathematical expression},where {Mathematical expression} is the cumulative sum until time, t, of the square roots of seismic moments of individual foreshocks computed from reported magnitudes;C and n are constants; and tfis a limiting time at which the rate of seismic moment accumulation becomes infinite. The possible time of a major foreshock or main shock, tf,is found by the best fit of equation (1), or its integral, to step-like plots of {Mathematical expression} versus time using successive estimates of tfin linearized regressions until the maximum coefficient of determination, r2,is obtained. Analyzed examples include sequences preceding earthquakes at Cremasta, Greece, 2/5/66; Haicheng, China 2/4/75; Oaxaca, Mexico, 11/29/78; Petatlan, Mexico, 3/14/79; and Central Chile, 3/3/85. In 29 estimates of main-shock time, made as the sequences developed, the errors in 20 were less than one-half and in 9 less than one tenth the time remaining between the time of the last data used and the main shock. Some precursory sequences, or parts of them, yield no solution. Two sequences appear to include in their first parts the aftershocks of a previous event; plots using the integral of equation (1) show that the sequences are easily separable into aftershock and foreshock segments. Synthetic seismic sequences of shocks at equal time intervals were constructed to follow equation (1), using four values of n. In each series the resulting distributions of magnitudes closely follow the linear Gutenberg-Richter relation log N=a-bM, and the product n times b for each series is the same constant. In various forms and for decades, equation (1) has been used successfully to predict failure times of stressed metals and ceramics, landslides in soil and rock slopes, and volcanic

  5. Performance of Earthquake Early Warning Systems during the Major Events of the 2016-2017 Central Italy Seismic Sequence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Festa, G.; Picozzi, M.; Alessandro, C.; Colombelli, S.; Cattaneo, M.; Chiaraluce, L.; Elia, L.; Martino, C.; Marzorati, S.; Supino, M.; Zollo, A.

    2017-12-01

    Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) are systems nowadays contributing to the seismic risk mitigation actions, both in terms of losses and societal resilience, by issuing an alert promptly after the earthquake origin and before the ground shaking impacts the targets to be protected. EEWS systems can be grouped in two main classes: network based and stand-alone systems. Network based EEWS make use of dense seismic networks surrounding the fault (e.g. Near Fault Observatory; NFO) generating the event. The rapid processing of the P-wave early portion allows for the location and magnitude estimation of the event then used to predict the shaking through ground motion prediction equations. Stand-alone systems instead analyze the early P-wave signal to predict the ground shaking carried by the late S or surface waves, through empirically calibrated scaling relationships, at the recording site itself. We compared the network-based (PRESTo, PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem, www.prestoews.org, Satriano et al., 2011) and the stand-alone (SAVE, on-Site-Alert-leVEl, Caruso et al., 2017) systems, by analyzing their performance during the 2016-2017 Central Italy sequence. We analyzed 9 earthquakes having magnitude 5.0 security actions. PRESTo also evaluated the accuracy of location and magnitude. Both systems well predict the ground shaking nearby the event source, with a success rate around 90% within the potential damage zone. The lead-time is significantly larger for the network based system, increasing to more than 10s at 40 km from the event epicentre. The stand-alone system better performs in the near-source region showing a positive albeit small lead-time (operational in Italy, based on the available acceleration networks, by improving the capability of reducing the lead-time related to data telemetry.

  6. United States earthquake early warning system: how theory and analysis can save America before the big one happens

    OpenAIRE

    Rockabrand, Ryan

    2017-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited The United States is extremely vulnerable to catastrophic earthquakes. More than 143 million Americans may be threatened by damaging earthquakes in the next 50 years. This thesis argues that the United States is unprepared for the most catastrophic earthquakes the country faces today. Earthquake early warning systems are a major solution in practice to reduce economic risk, to protect property and the environment, and to save lives. Ot...

  7. A numerical simulation strategy on occupant evacuation behaviors and casualty prediction in a building during earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shuang; Yu, Xiaohui; Zhang, Yanjuan; Zhai, Changhai

    2018-01-01

    Casualty prediction in a building during earthquakes benefits to implement the economic loss estimation in the performance-based earthquake engineering methodology. Although after-earthquake observations reveal that the evacuation has effects on the quantity of occupant casualties during earthquakes, few current studies consider occupant movements in the building in casualty prediction procedures. To bridge this knowledge gap, a numerical simulation method using refined cellular automata model is presented, which can describe various occupant dynamic behaviors and building dimensions. The simulation on the occupant evacuation is verified by a recorded evacuation process from a school classroom in real-life 2013 Ya'an earthquake in China. The occupant casualties in the building under earthquakes are evaluated by coupling the building collapse process simulation by finite element method, the occupant evacuation simulation, and the casualty occurrence criteria with time and space synchronization. A case study of casualty prediction in a building during an earthquake is provided to demonstrate the effect of occupant movements on casualty prediction.

  8. Early Results of Three-Year Monitoring of Red Wood Ants’ Behavioral Changes and Their Possible Correlation with Earthquake Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriele Berberich

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Short-term earthquake predictions with an advance warning of several hours or days are currently not possible due to both incomplete understanding of the complex tectonic processes and inadequate observations. Abnormal animal behaviors before earthquakes have been reported previously, but create problems in monitoring and reliability. The situation is different with red wood ants (RWA; Formica rufa-group (Hymenoptera: Formicidae. They have stationary mounds on tectonically active, gas-bearing fault systems. These faults may be potential earthquake areas. For three years (2009–2012, two red wood ant mounds (Formica rufa-group, located at the seismically active Neuwied Basin (Eifel, Germany, have been monitored 24/7 by high-resolution cameras with both a color and an infrared sensor. Early results show that ants have a well-identifiable standard daily routine. Correlation with local seismic events suggests changes in the ants’ behavior hours before the earthquake: the nocturnal rest phase and daily activity are suppressed, and standard daily routine does not resume until the next day. At present, an automated image evaluation routine is being applied to the more than 45,000 hours of video streams. Based on this automated approach, a statistical analysis of the ants’ behavior will be carried out. In addition, other parameters (climate, geotectonic and biological, which may influence behavior, will be included in the analysis.

  9. Towards an Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning in the Caribbean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huerfano Moreno, V. A.; Vanacore, E. A.

    2017-12-01

    The Caribbean region (CR) has a documented history of large damaging earthquakes and tsunamis that have affected coastal areas, including the events of Jamaica in 1692, Virgin Islands in 1867, Puerto Rico in 1918, the Dominican Republic in 1946 and Haiti in 2010. There is clear evidence that tsunamis have been triggered by large earthquakes that deformed the ocean floor around the Caribbean Plate boundary. The CR is monitored jointly by national/regional/local seismic, geodetic and sea level networks. All monitoring institutions are participating in the UNESCO ICG/Caribe EWS, the purpose of this initiative is to minimize loss of life and destruction of property, and to mitigate against catastrophic economic impacts via promoting local research, real time (RT) earthquake, geodetic and sea level data sharing and improving warning capabilities and enhancing education and outreach strategies. Currently more than, 100 broad-band seismic, 65 sea levels and 50 GPS high rate stations are available in real or near real-time. These real-time streams are used by Local/Regional or Worldwide detection and warning institutions to provide earthquake source parameters in a timely manner. Currently, any Caribbean event detected to have a magnitude greater than 4.5 is evaluated, and sea level is measured, by the TWC for tsumanigenic potential. The regional cooperation is motivated both by research interests as well as geodetic, seismic and tsunami hazard monitoring and warning. It will allow the imaging of the tectonic structure of the Caribbean region to a high resolution which will consequently permit further understanding of the seismic source properties for moderate and large events and the application of this knowledge to procedures of civil protection. To reach its goals, the virtual network has been designed following the highest technical standards: BB sensors, 24 bits A/D converters with 140 dB dynamic range, real-time telemetry. Here we will discuss the state of the PR

  10. Quantitative prediction of strong motion for a potential earthquake fault

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shamita Das

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a new method for calculating strong motion records for a given seismic region on the basis of the laws of physics using information on the tectonics and physical properties of the earthquake fault. Our method is based on a earthquake model, called a «barrier model», which is characterized by five source parameters: fault length, width, maximum slip, rupture velocity, and barrier interval. The first three parameters may be constrained from plate tectonics, and the fourth parameter is roughly a constant. The most important parameter controlling the earthquake strong motion is the last parameter, «barrier interval». There are three methods to estimate the barrier interval for a given seismic region: 1 surface measurement of slip across fault breaks, 2 model fitting with observed near and far-field seismograms, and 3 scaling law data for small earthquakes in the region. The barrier intervals were estimated for a dozen earthquakes and four seismic regions by the above three methods. Our preliminary results for California suggest that the barrier interval may be determined if the maximum slip is given. The relation between the barrier interval and maximum slip varies from one seismic region to another. For example, the interval appears to be unusually long for Kilauea, Hawaii, which may explain why only scattered evidence of strong ground shaking was observed in the epicentral area of the Island of Hawaii earthquake of November 29, 1975. The stress drop associated with an individual fault segment estimated from the barrier interval and maximum slip lies between 100 and 1000 bars. These values are about one order of magnitude greater than those estimated earlier by the use of crack models without barriers. Thus, the barrier model can resolve, at least partially, the well known discrepancy between the stress-drops measured in the laboratory and those estimated for earthquakes.

  11. Coping with the challenges of early disaster response: 24 years of field hospital experience after earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bar-On, Elhanan; Abargel, Avi; Peleg, Kobi; Kreiss, Yitshak

    2013-10-01

    To propose strategies and recommendations for future planning and deployment of field hospitals after earthquakes by comparing the experience of 4 field hospitals deployed by The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Medical Corps in Armenia, Turkey, India and Haiti. Quantitative data regarding the earthquakes were collected from published sources; data regarding hospital activity were collected from IDF records; and qualitative information was obtained from structured interviews with key figures involved in the missions. The hospitals started operating between 89 and 262 hours after the earthquakes. Their sizes ranged from 25 to 72 beds, and their personnel numbered between 34 and 100. The number of patients treated varied from 1111 to 2400. The proportion of earthquake-related diagnoses ranged from 28% to 67% (P earthquakes, patient caseload and treatment requirements varied widely. The variables affecting the patient profile most significantly were time until deployment, total number of injured, availability of adjacent medical facilities, and possibility of evacuation from the disaster area. When deploying a field hospital in the early phase after an earthquake, a wide variability in patient caseload should be anticipated. Customization is difficult due to the paucity of information. Therefore, early deployment necessitates full logistic self-sufficiency and operational versatility. Also, collaboration with local and international medical teams can greatly enhance treatment capabilities.

  12. Predicting the Maximum Earthquake Magnitude from Seismic Data in Israel and Its Neighboring Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Last, Mark; Rabinowitz, Nitzan; Leonard, Gideon

    2016-01-01

    This paper explores several data mining and time series analysis methods for predicting the magnitude of the largest seismic event in the next year based on the previously recorded seismic events in the same region. The methods are evaluated on a catalog of 9,042 earthquake events, which took place between 01/01/1983 and 31/12/2010 in the area of Israel and its neighboring countries. The data was obtained from the Geophysical Institute of Israel. Each earthquake record in the catalog is associated with one of 33 seismic regions. The data was cleaned by removing foreshocks and aftershocks. In our study, we have focused on ten most active regions, which account for more than 80% of the total number of earthquakes in the area. The goal is to predict whether the maximum earthquake magnitude in the following year will exceed the median of maximum yearly magnitudes in the same region. Since the analyzed catalog includes only 28 years of complete data, the last five annual records of each region (referring to the years 2006-2010) are kept for testing while using the previous annual records for training. The predictive features are based on the Gutenberg-Richter Ratio as well as on some new seismic indicators based on the moving averages of the number of earthquakes in each area. The new predictive features prove to be much more useful than the indicators traditionally used in the earthquake prediction literature. The most accurate result (AUC = 0.698) is reached by the Multi-Objective Info-Fuzzy Network (M-IFN) algorithm, which takes into account the association between two target variables: the number of earthquakes and the maximum earthquake magnitude during the same year.

  13. Earthquake early Warning ShakeAlert system: West coast wide production prototype

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Monica D.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Given, Douglas; Guiwits, Stephen; Neuhauser, Doug; Hensen, Ivan; Hartog, Renate; Bodin, Paul; Kress, Victor; Thompson, Stephen; Felizardo, Claude; Brody, Jeff; Bhadha, Rayo; Schwarz, Stan

    2017-01-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) is an application of seismological science that can give people, as well as mechanical and electrical systems, up to tens of seconds to take protective actions before peak earthquake shaking arrives at a location. Since 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey has been working in collaboration with several partners to develop EEW for the United States. The goal is to create and operate an EEW system, called ShakeAlert, for the highest risk areas of the United States, starting with the West Coast states of California, Oregon, and Washington. In early 2016, the Production Prototype v.1.0 was established for California; then, in early 2017, v.1.2 was established for the West Coast, with earthquake notifications being distributed to a group of beta users in California, Oregon, and Washington. The new ShakeAlert Production Prototype was an outgrowth from an earlier demonstration EEW system that began sending test notifications to selected users in California in January 2012. ShakeAlert leverages the considerable physical, technical, and organizational earthquake monitoring infrastructure of the Advanced National Seismic System, a nationwide federation of cooperating seismic networks. When fully implemented, the ShakeAlert system may reduce damage and injury caused by large earthquakes, improve the nation’s resilience, and speed recovery.

  14. NEAR REAL-TIME DETERMINATION OF EARTHQUAKE SOURCE PARAMETERS FOR TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING FROM GEODETIC OBSERVATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Manneela

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Exemplifying the tsunami source immediately after an earthquake is the most critical component of tsunami early warning, as not every earthquake generates a tsunami. After a major under sea earthquake, it is very important to determine whether or not it has actually triggered the deadly wave. The near real-time observations from near field networks such as strong motion and Global Positioning System (GPS allows rapid determination of fault geometry. Here we present a complete processing chain of Indian Tsunami Early Warning System (ITEWS, starting from acquisition of geodetic raw data, processing, inversion and simulating the situation as it would be at warning center during any major earthquake. We determine the earthquake moment magnitude and generate the centroid moment tensor solution using a novel approach which are the key elements for tsunami early warning. Though the well established seismic monitoring network, numerical modeling and dissemination system are currently capable to provide tsunami warnings to most of the countries in and around the Indian Ocean, the study highlights the critical role of geodetic observations in determination of tsunami source for high-quality forecasting.

  15. Four Examples of Short-Term and Imminent Prediction of Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    zeng, zuoxun; Liu, Genshen; Wu, Dabin; Sibgatulin, Victor

    2014-05-01

    We show here 4 examples of short-term and imminent prediction of earthquakes in China last year. They are Nima Earthquake(Ms5.2), Minxian Earthquake(Ms6.6), Nantou Earthquake (Ms6.7) and Dujiangyan Earthquake (Ms4.1) Imminent Prediction of Nima Earthquake(Ms5.2) Based on the comprehensive analysis of the prediction of Victor Sibgatulin using natural electromagnetic pulse anomalies and the prediction of Song Song and Song Kefu using observation of a precursory halo, and an observation for the locations of a degasification of the earth in the Naqu, Tibet by Zeng Zuoxun himself, the first author made a prediction for an earthquake around Ms 6 in 10 days in the area of the degasification point (31.5N, 89.0 E) at 0:54 of May 8th, 2013. He supplied another degasification point (31N, 86E) for the epicenter prediction at 8:34 of the same day. At 18:54:30 of May 15th, 2013, an earthquake of Ms5.2 occurred in the Nima County, Naqu, China. Imminent Prediction of Minxian Earthquake (Ms6.6) At 7:45 of July 22nd, 2013, an earthquake occurred at the border between Minxian and Zhangxian of Dingxi City (34.5N, 104.2E), Gansu province with magnitude of Ms6.6. We review the imminent prediction process and basis for the earthquake using the fingerprint method. 9 channels or 15 channels anomalous components - time curves can be outputted from the SW monitor for earthquake precursors. These components include geomagnetism, geoelectricity, crust stresses, resonance, crust inclination. When we compress the time axis, the outputted curves become different geometric images. The precursor images are different for earthquake in different regions. The alike or similar images correspond to earthquakes in a certain region. According to the 7-year observation of the precursor images and their corresponding earthquake, we usually get the fingerprint 6 days before the corresponding earthquakes. The magnitude prediction needs the comparison between the amplitudes of the fingerpringts from the same

  16. Continuous estimates on the earthquake early warning magnitude by use of the near-field acceleration records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jun; Jin, Xing; Wei, Yongxiang; Zhang, Hongcai

    2013-10-01

    In this article, the seismic records of Japan's Kik-net are selected to measure the acceleration, displacement, and effective peak acceleration of each seismic record within a certain time after P wave, then a continuous estimation is given on earthquake early warning magnitude through statistical analysis method, and Wenchuan earthquake record is utilized to check the method. The results show that the reliability of earthquake early warning magnitude continuously increases with the increase of the seismic information, the biggest residual happens if the acceleration is adopted to fit earthquake magnitude, which may be caused by rich high-frequency components and large dispersion of peak value in acceleration record, the influence caused by the high-frequency components can be effectively reduced if the effective peak acceleration and peak displacement is adopted, it is estimated that the dispersion of earthquake magnitude obviously reduces, but it is easy for peak displacement to be affected by long-period drifting. In various components, the residual enlargement phenomenon at vertical direction is almost unobvious, thus it is recommended in this article that the effective peak acceleration at vertical direction is preferred to estimate earthquake early warning magnitude. Through adopting Wenchuan strong earthquake record to check the method mentioned in this article, it is found that this method can be used to quickly, stably, and accurately estimate the early warning magnitude of this earthquake, which shows that this method is completely applicable for earthquake early warning.

  17. Combining Real-Time Seismic and GPS Data for Earthquake Early Warning (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boese, M.; Heaton, T. H.; Hudnut, K. W.

    2013-12-01

    Scientists at Caltech, UC Berkeley, the Univ. of SoCal, the Univ. of Washington, the US Geological Survey, and ETH Zurich have developed an earthquake early warning (EEW) demonstration system for California and the Pacific Northwest. To quickly determine the earthquake magnitude and location, 'ShakeAlert' currently processes and interprets real-time data-streams from ~400 seismic broadband and strong-motion stations within the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN). Based on these parameters, the 'UserDisplay' software predicts and displays the arrival and intensity of shaking at a given user site. Real-time ShakeAlert feeds are currently shared with around 160 individuals, companies, and emergency response organizations to educate potential users about EEW and to identify needs and applications of EEW in a future operational warning system. Recently, scientists at the contributing institutions have started to develop algorithms for ShakeAlert that make use of high-rate real-time GPS data to improve the magnitude estimates for large earthquakes (M>6.5) and to determine slip distributions. Knowing the fault slip in (near) real-time is crucial for users relying on or operating distributed systems, such as for power, water or transportation, especially if these networks run close to or across large faults. As shown in an earlier study, slip information is also useful to predict (in a probabilistic sense) how far a fault rupture will propagate, thus enabling more robust probabilistic ground-motion predictions at distant locations. Finally, fault slip information is needed for tsunami warning, such as in the Cascadia subduction-zone. To handle extended fault-ruptures of large earthquakes in real-time, Caltech and USGS Pasadena are currently developing and testing a two-step procedure that combines seismic and geodetic data; in the first step, high-frequency strong-motion amplitudes are used to rapidly classify near-and far-source stations. Then, the location and

  18. Applications of the gambling score in evaluating earthquake predictions and forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Jiancang; Zechar, Jeremy D.; Jiang, Changsheng; Console, Rodolfo; Murru, Maura; Falcone, Giuseppe

    2010-05-01

    This study presents a new method, namely the gambling score, for scoring the performance earthquake forecasts or predictions. Unlike most other scoring procedures that require a regular scheme of forecast and treat each earthquake equally, regardless their magnitude, this new scoring method compensates the risk that the forecaster has taken. Starting with a certain number of reputation points, once a forecaster makes a prediction or forecast, he is assumed to have betted some points of his reputation. The reference model, which plays the role of the house, determines how many reputation points the forecaster can gain if he succeeds, according to a fair rule, and also takes away the reputation points bet by the forecaster if he loses. This method is also extended to the continuous case of point process models, where the reputation points betted by the forecaster become a continuous mass on the space-time-magnitude range of interest. For discrete predictions, we apply this method to evaluate performance of Shebalin's predictions made by using the Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP) algorithm and of the outputs of the predictions from the Annual Consultation Meeting on Earthquake Tendency held by China Earthquake Administration. For the continuous case, we use it to compare the probability forecasts of seismicity in the Abruzzo region before and after the L'aquila earthquake based on the ETAS model and the PPE model.

  19. Challenges for implementing Earthquake Early Warning: A Case Study in Nicaragua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massin, F.; Clinton, J. F.; Boese, M.; Cauzzi, C.; Strauch, W.

    2017-12-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems aim at providing fast and accurate estimates of event parameters or local ground shaking over wide ranges of source dimensions and epicentral distances. The Swiss Seismological Service (SED) has integrated EEW solutions into the SeisComP3 (SC3) professional earthquake monitoring software. VS(SC3) provides fast magnitude estimates for network-based point-sources using conventional triggering and phases association techniques, while FinDer(SC3) matches the evolving patterns of ground motion to track on-going rupture extent, and can provide accurate ground motion predictions for finite fault ruptures. SC3 is widely used, including in Central America, and at INETER in Nicaragua. In 2016, SED and INETER started a joint project to assess the feasibility of EEW in Nicaragua and Central America and to set up a prototype EEW system. We test VS(SC3) and FinDer(SC3) softwares at INETER since 2016. Excellent relations between regional seismic networks mean broadband and strong motion seismic data are exchanged across Central America in real time, which means the network is sufficient to warrant investigation into its potential for EEW. We report on the successes and challenges of operating an EEW system where seismicity is high, but infrastructure is fragile and the design and operation of a seismic network is challenging (in Nicaragua, on average 50% of all stations do not work effectively for EEW). The current best EEW delays for on-shore earthquakes in Nicaragua is in the order of 20s and 40s offshore. However, the current network should be able to provide EEW in 10 to 15s on-shore and 20 to 25s off-shore which correspond to potential EEW intensities over or equal to VII. We compare the performances of EEW in Nicaragua with an ideal setting, featuring optimized data availability. We evaluate improvements strategies of the Nicaraguan and the Joint Central American Seismic Networks for EEW. And we discuss how to combine real-time EEW

  20. Damage Level Prediction of Reinforced Concrete Building Based on Earthquake Time History Using Artificial Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suryanita Reni

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The strong motion earthquake could cause the building damage in case of the building not considered in the earthquake design of the building. The study aims to predict the damage-level of building due to earthquake using Artificial Neural Networks method. The building model is a reinforced concrete building with ten floors and height between floors is 3.6 m. The model building received a load of the earthquake based on nine earthquake time history records. Each time history scaled to 0,5g, 0,75g, and 1,0g. The Artificial Neural Networks are designed in 4 architectural models using the MATLAB program. Model 1 used the displacement, velocity, and acceleration as input and Model 2 used the displacement only as the input. Model 3 used the velocity as input, and Model 4 used the acceleration just as input. The output of the Neural Networks is the damage level of the building with the category of Safe (1, Immediate Occupancy (2, Life Safety (3 or in a condition of Collapse Prevention (4. According to the results, Neural Network models have the prediction rate of the damage level between 85%-95%. Therefore, one of the solutions for analyzing the structural responses and the damage level promptly and efficiently when the earthquake occurred is by using Artificial Neural Network

  1. Evaluation and optimization of seismic networks and algorithms for earthquake early warning – the case of Istanbul (Turkey)

    OpenAIRE

    Oth, Adrien; Böse, Maren; Wenzel, Friedemann; Köhler, Nina; Erdik, Mustafa

    2010-01-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems should provide reliable warnings as quickly as possible with a minimum number of false and missed alarms. Using the example of the megacity Istanbul and based on a set of simulated scenario earthquakes, we present a novel approach for evaluating and optimizing seismic networks for EEW, in particular in regions with a scarce number of instrumentally recorded earthquakes. We show that, while the current station locations of the existing Istanbul EEW system...

  2. A new M w estimation parameter for use in earthquake early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zijun; Zhao, Boming

    2018-01-01

    We propose a method that employs the squared displacement integral ( ID2) to estimate earthquake magnitudes in real time for use in earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. Moreover, using τ c and P d for comparison, we establish formulas for estimating the moment magnitudes of these three parameters based on the selected aftershocks (4.0 ≤ M s ≤ 6.5) of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. In this comparison, the proposed ID2 method displays the highest accuracy. Furthermore, we investigate the applicability of the initial parameters to large earthquakes by estimating the magnitude of the Wenchuan M s 8.0 mainshock using a 3-s time window. Although these three parameters all display problems with saturation, the proposed ID2 parameter is relatively accurate. The evolutionary estimation of ID2 as a function of the time window shows that the estimation equation established with ID2 Ref determined from the first 8-s of P wave data can be directly applicable to predicate the magnitudes of 8.0. Therefore, the proposed ID2 parameter provides a robust estimator of earthquake moment magnitudes and can be used for EEW purposes.

  3. Evaluation of earthquake parameters used in the Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madlazim; Prastowo, Tjipto

    2016-02-01

    Twenty-two of a total of 30 earthquake events reported by the Indonesian Agency for Geophysics, Climatology and Meteorology during the time period 2007-2010 were falsely issued as tsunamigenic by the Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (Ina-TEWS). These 30 earthquakes were of different magnitudes and occurred in different locations. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of the Ina-TEWS using common earthquake parameters, including the earthquake magnitude, origin time, depth, and epicenter. In total, 298 datasets assessed by the Ina-TEWS and the global centroid moment tensor (CMT) method were assessed. The global CMT method is considered by almost all seismologists to be a reference for the determination of these parameters as they have been proved to be accurate. It was found that the earthquake magnitude, origin time, and depth provided by the Ina-TEWS were significantly different from those given in the global CMT catalog, whereas the latitude and longitude positions of the events provided by both tsunami assessment systems were coincident. The performance of the Ina-TEWS, particularly in terms of accuracy, remains questionable and needs to be improved.

  4. Application of geochemical methods in earthquake prediction in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fong-liang, J.; Gui-ru, L.

    1981-05-01

    Several geochemical anomalies were observed before the Haichen, Longling, Tangshan, and Songpan earthquakes and their strong aftershocks. They included changes in groundwater radon levels; chemical composition of the groundwater (concentration of Ca/sup + +/, Mg/sup + +/, Cl/sup -/, So/sub 4//sup , and HCO/sub 3//sup -/ ions); conductivity; and dissolved gases such as H/sub 2/, CO/sub 2/, etc. In addition, anomalous changes in water color and quality were observed before these large earthquakes. Before some events gases escaped from the surface, and there were reports of ''ground odors'' being smelled by local residents. The large amount of radon data can be grouped into long-term and short-term anomalies. The long-term anomalies have a radon emission build up time of from a few months to more than a year. The short-term anomalies have durations from a few hours or less to a few months.

  5. Development of a hybrid earthquake early warning system based on single sensor technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gravirov, V.V.; Kislov, K.V.

    2012-01-01

    There are two methods to earthquake early warning system: the method based on a network of seismic stations and the single-sensor method. Both have advantages and drawbacks. The current systems rely on high density seismic networks. Attempts at implementing techniques based on the single-station principle encounter difficulties in the identification of earthquake in noise. The noise may be very diverse, from stationary to impulsive. It seems a promising line of research to develop hybrid warning systems with single-sensors being incorporated in the overall early warning network. This will permit using all advantages and will help reduce the radius of the hazardous zone where no earthquake warning can be produced. The main problems are highlighted and the solutions of these are discussed. The system is implemented to include three detection processes in parallel. The first is based on the study of the co-occurrence matrix of the signal wavelet transform. The second consists in using the method of a change point in a random process and signal detection in a moving time window. The third uses artificial neural networks. Further, applying a decision rule out the final earthquake detection is carried out and estimate its reliability. (author)

  6. Time-predictable model applicability for earthquake occurrence in northeast India and vicinity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Panthi

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Northeast India and its vicinity is one of the seismically most active regions in the world, where a few large and several moderate earthquakes have occurred in the past. In this study the region of northeast India has been considered for an earthquake generation model using earthquake data as reported by earthquake catalogues National Geophysical Data Centre, National Earthquake Information Centre, United States Geological Survey and from book prepared by Gupta et al. (1986 for the period 1906–2008. The events having a surface wave magnitude of Ms≥5.5 were considered for statistical analysis. In this region, nineteen seismogenic sources were identified by the observation of clustering of earthquakes. It is observed that the time interval between the two consecutive mainshocks depends upon the preceding mainshock magnitude (Mp and not on the following mainshock (Mf. This result corroborates the validity of time-predictable model in northeast India and its adjoining regions. A linear relation between the logarithm of repeat time (T of two consecutive events and the magnitude of the preceding mainshock is established in the form LogT = cMp+a, where "c" is a positive slope of line and "a" is function of minimum magnitude of the earthquake considered. The values of the parameters "c" and "a" are estimated to be 0.21 and 0.35 in northeast India and its adjoining regions. The less value of c than the average implies that the earthquake occurrence in this region is different from those of plate boundaries. The result derived can be used for long term seismic hazard estimation in the delineated seismogenic regions.

  7. Long-term predictability of regions and dates of strong earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubyshen, Alexander; Doda, Leonid; Shopin, Sergey

    2016-04-01

    Results on the long-term predictability of strong earthquakes are discussed. It is shown that dates of earthquakes with M>5.5 could be determined in advance of several months before the event. The magnitude and the region of approaching earthquake could be specified in the time-frame of a month before the event. Determination of number of M6+ earthquakes, which are expected to occur during the analyzed year, is performed using the special sequence diagram of seismic activity for the century time frame. Date analysis could be performed with advance of 15-20 years. Data is verified by a monthly sequence diagram of seismic activity. The number of strong earthquakes expected to occur in the analyzed month is determined by several methods having a different prediction horizon. Determination of days of potential earthquakes with M5.5+ is performed using astronomical data. Earthquakes occur on days of oppositions of Solar System planets (arranged in a single line). At that, the strongest earthquakes occur under the location of vector "Sun-Solar System barycenter" in the ecliptic plane. Details of this astronomical multivariate indicator still require further research, but it's practical significant is confirmed by practice. Another one empirical indicator of approaching earthquake M6+ is a synchronous variation of meteorological parameters: abrupt decreasing of minimal daily temperature, increasing of relative humidity, abrupt change of atmospheric pressure (RAMES method). Time difference of predicted and actual date is no more than one day. This indicator is registered 104 days before the earthquake, so it was called as Harmonic 104 or H-104. This fact looks paradoxical, but the works of A. Sytinskiy and V. Bokov on the correlation of global atmospheric circulation and seismic events give a physical basis for this empirical fact. Also, 104 days is a quarter of a Chandler period so this fact gives insight on the correlation between the anomalies of Earth orientation

  8. Performance of JMA Earthquake Early Warning for the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (Mw9.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoshiba, M.; Wakayama, A.; Ishigaki, Y.; Doi, K.

    2011-12-01

    This presentation outlines the Earthquake Early Warning of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) for the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (Mw9.0). EEW has been operational nationwide in Japan by JMA since October, 2007. For JMA EEW, the hypocenter is determined by a combination of several techniques, using approximately 1,100 stations from the JMA network and the Hi-net network of NIED; magnitude is mainly from maximum displacement amplitudes. JMA EEWs are updated as available data increases with elapsed time. Accordingly EEWs are issued repeatedly with improving accuracy for a single earthquake. JMA EEWs are divided into two grades depending on the expected intensities. The JMA intensity scale is based on instrumental measurements in which not only the amplitude but also the frequency and duration of the shaking are considered. The 10-degree JMA intensity scale rounds off the instrumental intensity value to the integer. Intensities of 5 and 6 are divided into two degrees, namely 5-lower, 5-upper, 6-lower and 6-upper, respectively. Intensity 1 corresponds to ground motion that people can barely detect, and 7 is the upper limit. JMA EEWs are announced to general public when intensity 5-lower (or greater) is expected. The JMA EEW system was triggered for the Mw 9.0 earthquake when station OURI (138km from the epicenter) detected the initial P wave at 14:46:40.2 (Japan Standard Time). The first EEW, the first of 15 announcements, was issued 5.4 s later. The waveform started with small amplitude, which was comparable to noise level for displacement. The small amplitude does not indicate that the initial rupture of the Mw 9.0 event is large, and does not suggest a large magnitude event. By the fourth EEW, 8.6 s after the first trigger, the expected intensity exceeded the criteria of the warning to the general public. JMA issued the fourth EEW announcements to the general public of the Tohoku district, and then the warning was automatically broadcast

  9. Monitoring of the future strong Vrancea events by using the CN formal earthquake prediction algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moldoveanu, C.L.; Novikova, O.V.; Panza, G.F.; Radulian, M.

    2003-06-01

    The preparation process of the strong subcrustal events originating in Vrancea region, Romania, is monitored using an intermediate-term medium-range earthquake prediction method - the CN algorithm (Keilis-Borok and Rotwain, 1990). We present the results of the monitoring of the preparation of future strong earthquakes for the time interval from January 1, 1994 (1994.1.1), to January 1, 2003 (2003.1.1) using the updated catalogue of the Romanian local network. The database considered for the CN monitoring of the preparation of future strong earthquakes in Vrancea covers the period from 1966.3.1 to 2003.1.1 and the geographical rectangle 44.8 deg - 48.4 deg N, 25.0 deg - 28.0 deg E. The algorithm correctly identifies, by retrospective prediction, the TJPs for all the three strong earthquakes (Mo=6.4) that occurred in Vrancea during this period. The cumulated duration of the TIPs represents 26.5% of the total period of time considered (1966.3.1-2003.1.1). The monitoring of current seismicity using the algorithm CN has been carried out since 1994. No strong earthquakes occurred from 1994.1.1 to 2003.1.1 but the CN declared an extended false alarm from 1999.5.1 to 2000.11.1. No alarm has currently been declared in the region (on January 1, 2003), as can be seen from the TJPs diagram shown. (author)

  10. Development of an Earthquake Early Warning System Using Real-Time Strong Motion Signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yih-Min; Kanamori, Hiroo

    2008-01-09

    As urbanization progresses worldwide, earthquakes pose serious threat to livesand properties for urban areas near major active faults on land or subduction zonesoffshore. Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) can be a useful tool for reducing earthquakehazards, if the spatial relation between cities and earthquake sources is favorable for suchwarning and their citizens are properly trained to respond to earthquake warning messages.An EEW system forewarns an urban area of forthcoming strong shaking, normally with afew sec to a few tens of sec of warning time, i.e., before the arrival of the destructive Swavepart of the strong ground motion. Even a few second of advanced warning time willbe useful for pre-programmed emergency measures for various critical facilities, such asrapid-transit vehicles and high-speed trains to avoid potential derailment; it will be alsouseful for orderly shutoff of gas pipelines to minimize fire hazards, controlled shutdown ofhigh-technological manufacturing operations to reduce potential losses, and safe-guardingof computer facilities to avoid loss of vital databases. We explored a practical approach toEEW with the use of a ground-motion period parameter τc and a high-pass filtered verticaldisplacement amplitude parameter Pd from the initial 3 sec of the P waveforms. At a givensite, an earthquake magnitude could be determined from τ c and the peak ground-motionvelocity (PGV) could be estimated from Pd. In this method, incoming strong motion acceleration signals are recursively converted to ground velocity and displacement. A Pwavetrigger is constantly monitored. When a trigger occurs, τ c and Pd are computed. Theearthquake magnitude and the on-site ground-motion intensity could be estimated and thewarning could be issued. In an ideal situation, such warnings would be available within 10sec of the origin time of a large earthquake whose subsequent ground motion may last fortens of seconds.

  11. Development of an Earthquake Early Warning System Using Real-Time Strong Motion Signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroo Kanamori

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available As urbanization progresses worldwide, earthquakes pose serious threat to livesand properties for urban areas near major active faults on land or subduction zonesoffshore. Earthquake Early Warning (EEW can be a useful tool for reducing earthquakehazards, if the spatial relation between cities and earthquake sources is favorable for suchwarning and their citizens are properly trained to respond to earthquake warning messages.An EEW system forewarns an urban area of forthcoming strong shaking, normally with afew sec to a few tens of sec of warning time, i.e., before the arrival of the destructive Swavepart of the strong ground motion. Even a few second of advanced warning time willbe useful for pre-programmed emergency measures for various critical facilities, such asrapid-transit vehicles and high-speed trains to avoid potential derailment; it will be alsouseful for orderly shutoff of gas pipelines to minimize fire hazards, controlled shutdown ofhigh-technological manufacturing operations to reduce potential losses, and safe-guardingof computer facilities to avoid loss of vital databases. We explored a practical approach toEEW with the use of a ground-motion period parameter τc and a high-pass filtered verticaldisplacement amplitude parameter Pd from the initial 3 sec of the P waveforms. At a givensite, an earthquake magnitude could be determined from τc and the peak ground-motionvelocity (PGV could be estimated from Pd. In this method, incoming strong motion acceleration signals are recursively converted to ground velocity and displacement. A Pwavetrigger is constantly monitored. When a trigger occurs, τc and Pd are computed. Theearthquake magnitude and the on-site ground-motion intensity could be estimated and thewarning could be issued. In an ideal situation, such warnings would be available within 10sec of the origin time of a large earthquake whose subsequent ground motion may last fortens of seconds.

  12. An Earthquake Prediction System Using The Time Series Analyses of Earthquake Property And Crust Motion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takeda, Fumihide; Takeo, Makoto

    2004-01-01

    We have developed a short-term deterministic earthquake (EQ) forecasting system similar to those used for Typhoons and Hurricanes, which has been under a test operation at website http://www.tec21.jp/ since June of 2003. We use the focus and crust displacement data recently opened to the public by Japanese seismograph and global positioning system (GPS) networks, respectively. Our system divides the forecasting area into the five regional areas of Japan, each of which is about 5 deg. by 5 deg. We have found that it can forecast the focus, date of occurrence and magnitude (M) of an impending EQ (whose M is larger than about 6), all within narrow limits. We have two examples to describe the system. One is the 2003/09/26 EQ of M 8 in the Hokkaido area, which is of hindsight. Another is a successful rollout of the most recent forecast on the 2004/05/30 EQ of M 6.7 off coast of the southern Kanto (Tokyo) area

  13. Predicting Posttraumatic Stress Symptom Prevalence and Local Distribution after an Earthquake with Scarce Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dussaillant, Francisca; Apablaza, Mauricio

    2017-08-01

    After a major earthquake, the assignment of scarce mental health emergency personnel to different geographic areas is crucial to the effective management of the crisis. The scarce information that is available in the aftermath of a disaster may be valuable in helping predict where are the populations that are in most need. The objectives of this study were to derive algorithms to predict posttraumatic stress (PTS) symptom prevalence and local distribution after an earthquake and to test whether there are algorithms that require few input data and are still reasonably predictive. A rich database of PTS symptoms, informed after Chile's 2010 earthquake and tsunami, was used. Several model specifications for the mean and centiles of the distribution of PTS symptoms, together with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) prevalence, were estimated via linear and quantile regressions. The models varied in the set of covariates included. Adjusted R2 for the most liberal specifications (in terms of numbers of covariates included) ranged from 0.62 to 0.74, depending on the outcome. When only including peak ground acceleration (PGA), poverty rate, and household damage in linear and quadratic form, predictive capacity was still good (adjusted R2 from 0.59 to 0.67 were obtained). Information about local poverty, household damage, and PGA can be used as an aid to predict PTS symptom prevalence and local distribution after an earthquake. This can be of help to improve the assignment of mental health personnel to the affected localities. Dussaillant F , Apablaza M . Predicting posttraumatic stress symptom prevalence and local distribution after an earthquake with scarce data. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(4):357-367.

  14. Early Results of Three-Year Monitoring of Red Wood Ants’ Behavioral Changes and Their Possible Correlation with Earthquake Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berberich, Gabriele; Berberich, Martin; Grumpe, Arne; Wöhler, Christian; Schreiber, Ulrich

    2013-01-01

    Simple Summary For three years (2009–2012), two red wood ant mounds (Formica rufa-group), located at the seismically active Neuwied Basin (Eifel, Germany), have been monitored 24/7 by high-resolution cameras. Early results show that ants have a well-identifiable standard daily routine. Correlation with local seismic events suggests changes in the ants’ behavior hours before the earthquake: the nocturnal rest phase and daily activity are suppressed, and standard daily routine does not resume until the next day. At present, an automated image evaluation routine is being applied to the video streams. Based on this automated approach, a statistical analysis of the ant behavior will be carried out. Abstract Short-term earthquake predictions with an advance warning of several hours or days are currently not possible due to both incomplete understanding of the complex tectonic processes and inadequate observations. Abnormal animal behaviors before earthquakes have been reported previously, but create problems in monitoring and reliability. The situation is different with red wood ants (RWA; Formica rufa-group (Hymenoptera: Formicidae)). They have stationary mounds on tectonically active, gas-bearing fault systems. These faults may be potential earthquake areas. For three years (2009–2012), two red wood ant mounds (Formica rufa-group), located at the seismically active Neuwied Basin (Eifel, Germany), have been monitored 24/7 by high-resolution cameras with both a color and an infrared sensor. Early results show that ants have a well-identifiable standard daily routine. Correlation with local seismic events suggests changes in the ants’ behavior hours before the earthquake: the nocturnal rest phase and daily activity are suppressed, and standard daily routine does not resume until the next day. At present, an automated image evaluation routine is being applied to the more than 45,000 hours of video streams. Based on this automated approach, a statistical analysis of

  15. Radon/helium studies for earthquake prediction N-W Himalaya

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Virk, H.S.

    1999-01-01

    The paper presents the preliminary data of radon monitoring stated in the Himalayan orogenic belt. Radon anomalies are correlated with microseismic activity in the N-W Himalaya. The He/Rn ratio will be used as a predictive tool for earthquakes

  16. Feasibility Study of Earthquake Early Warning in Hawai`i For the Mauna Kea Thirty Meter Telescope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okubo, P.; Hotovec-Ellis, A. J.; Thelen, W. A.; Bodin, P.; Vidale, J. E.

    2014-12-01

    Earthquakes, including large damaging events, are as central to the geologic evolution of the Island of Hawai`i as its more famous volcanic eruptions and lava flows. Increasing and expanding development of facilities and infrastructure on the island continues to increase exposure and risk associated with strong ground shaking resulting from future large local earthquakes. Damaging earthquakes over the last fifty years have shaken the most heavily developed areas and critical infrastructure of the island to levels corresponding to at least Modified Mercalli Intensity VII. Hawai`i's most recent damaging earthquakes, the M6.7 Kiholo Bay and M6.0 Mahukona earthquakes, struck within seven minutes of one another off of the northwest coast of the island in October 2006. These earthquakes resulted in damage at all thirteen of the telescopes near the summit of Mauna Kea that led to gaps in telescope operations ranging from days up to four months. With the experiences of 2006 and Hawai`i's history of damaging earthquakes, we have begun a study to explore the feasibility of implementing earthquake early warning systems to provide advanced warnings to the Thirty Meter Telescope of imminent strong ground shaking from future local earthquakes. One of the major challenges for earthquake early warning in Hawai`i is the variety of earthquake sources, from shallow crustal faults to deeper mantle sources, including the basal decollement separating the volcanic pile from the ancient oceanic crust. Infrastructure on the Island of Hawai`i may only be tens of kilometers from these sources, allowing warning times of only 20 s or less. We assess the capability of the current seismic network to produce alerts for major historic earthquakes, and we will provide recommendations for upgrades to improve performance.

  17. The performance review of EEWS(Earthquake Early Warning System) about Gyeongju earthquakes with Ml 5.1 and Ml 5.8 in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jung-Ho; Chi, Heon-Cheol; Lim, In-Seub; Seong, Yun-Jeong; Park, Jihwan

    2017-04-01

    EEW(Earthquake Early Warning) service to the public has been officially operated by KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) from 2015 in Korea. For the KMA's official EEW service, KIGAM has adopted ElarmS from UC Berkeley BSL and modified local magnitude relation, 1-D travel time curves and association procedures with real time waveform from about 201 seismic stations of KMA, KIGAM, KINS and KEPRI. There were two moderate size earthquakes with magnitude Ml 5.1 and Ml 5.8 close to Gyeongju city located at the southeastern part of Korea on Sep. 12. 2016. We have checked the performance of EEWS(Earthquake Early Warning System) named as TrigDB by KIGAM reviewing of these two Gyeongju earthquakes. The nearest station to epicenters of two earthquakes Ml 5.1(35.7697 N, 129.1904 E) and Ml 5.8(35.7632 N, 129.1898 E) was MKL which detected P phases in about 2.1 and 3.6 seconds after the origin times respectively. The first events were issued in 6.3 and 7.0 seconds from each origin time. Because of the unstable results on the early steps due to very few stations and unexpected automated analysis, KMA has the policy to wait for more 20 seconds for confirming the reliability. For these events KMA published EEW alarms in about 26 seconds after origin times with M 5.3 and M 5.9 respectively.

  18. Assessing earthquake early warning using sparse networks in developing countries: Case study of the Kyrgyz Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parolai, Stefano; Boxberger, Tobias; Pilz, Marco; Fleming, Kevin; Haas, Michael; Pittore, Massimiliano; Petrovic, Bojana; Moldobekov, Bolot; Zubovich, Alexander; Lauterjung, Joern

    2017-09-01

    The first real-time digital strong-motion network in Central Asia has been installed in the Kyrgyz Republic since 2014. Although this network consists of only 19 strong-motion stations, they are located in near-optimal locations for earthquake early warning and rapid response purposes. In fact, it is expected that this network, which utilizes the GFZ-Sentry software, allowing decentralized event assessment calculations, not only will provide useful strong motion data useful for improving future seismic hazard and risk assessment, but will serve as the backbone for regional and on-site earthquake early warning operations. Based on the location of these stations, and travel-time estimates for P- and S-waves, we have determined potential lead times for several major urban areas in Kyrgyzstan (i.e., Bishkek, Osh, and Karakol) and Kazakhstan (Almaty), where we find the implementation of an efficient earthquake early warning system would provide lead times outside the blind zone ranging from several seconds up to several tens of seconds. This was confirmed by the simulation of the possible shaking (and intensity) that would arise considering a series of scenarios based on historical and expected events, and how they affect the major urban centres. Such lead times would allow the instigation of automatic mitigation procedures, while the system as a whole would support prompt and efficient actions to be undertaken over large areas.

  19. Seismogeodetic monitoring techniques for tsunami and earthquake early warning and rapid assessment of structural damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haase, J. S.; Bock, Y.; Saunders, J. K.; Goldberg, D.; Restrepo, J. I.

    2016-12-01

    As part of an effort to promote the use of NASA-sponsored Earth science information for disaster risk reduction, real-time high-rate seismogeodetic data are being incorporated into early warning and structural monitoring systems. Seismogeodesy combines seismic acceleration and GPS displacement measurements using a tightly-coupled Kalman filter to provide absolute estimates of seismic acceleration, velocity and displacement. Traditionally, the monitoring of earthquakes and tsunamis has been based on seismic networks for estimating earthquake magnitude and slip, and tide gauges and deep-ocean buoys for direct measurement of tsunami waves. Real-time seismogeodetic observations at subduction zones allow for more robust and rapid magnitude and slip estimation that increase warning time in the near-source region. A NASA-funded effort to utilize GPS and seismogeodesy in NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii integrates new modules for picking, locating, and estimating magnitudes and moment tensors for earthquakes into the USGS earthworm environment at the TWCs. In a related project, NASA supports the transition of this research to seismogeodetic tools for disaster preparedness, specifically by implementing GPS and low-cost MEMS accelerometers for structural monitoring in partnership with earthquake engineers. Real-time high-rate seismogeodetic structural monitoring has been implemented on two structures. The first is a parking garage at the Autonomous University of Baja California Faculty of Medicine in Mexicali, not far from the rupture of the 2011 Mw 7.2 El Mayor Cucapah earthquake enabled through a UCMexus collaboration. The second is the 8-story Geisel Library at University of California, San Diego (UCSD). The system has also been installed for several proof-of-concept experiments at the UCSD Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation (NEES) Large High Performance Outdoor Shake Table. We present MEMS-based seismogeodetic observations from the 10 June

  20. Can Vrancea earthquakes be accurately predicted from unusual bio-system behavior and seismic-electromagnetic records?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enescu, D.; Chitaru, C.; Enescu, B.D.

    1999-01-01

    The relevance of bio-seismic research for the short-term prediction of strong Vrancea earthquakes is underscored. An unusual animal behavior before and during Vrancea earthquakes is described and illustrated in the individual case of the major earthquake of March 4, 1977. Several hypotheses to account for the uncommon behavior of bio-systems in relation to earthquakes in general and strong Vrancea earthquakes in particular are discussed in the second section. It is reminded that promising preliminary results concerning the identification of seismic-electromagnetic precursor signals have been obtained in the Vrancea seismogenic area using special, highly sensitive equipment. The need to correlate bio-seismic and seismic-electromagnetic researches is evident. Further investigations are suggested and urgent steps are proposed in order to achieve a successful short-term prediction of strong Vrancea earthquakes. (authors)

  1. United States Earthquake Early Warning System: How Theory and Analysis Can Save America Before the Big One Happens

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-12-01

    Documentation for 201447 Spending more on ShakeAlert now and including sustainable operating costs can be justified. In a 2016 publication in...Seismological Research Letters, entitled “ Benefits and Costs of Earthquake Early Warning,” Strauss and Allen determine that “according to FEMA’s cost ...statistical life in the United States is USD 6.6 million.”48 As such, the benefits outweigh the costs as the earthquake early warning system alone would

  2. Predictive factors for early menarche in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chie, W C; Liu, Y H; Chi, J; Wu, V; Chen, A

    1997-06-01

    The rapid increase of breast cancer in Taiwan has prompted the authors to evaluate the predictive factors of early menarche among contemporary Taiwanese girls. A total of 895 four-grade girls from eight elementary schools in Taipei City and County were identified as a closed cohort from the first semester of 1993. Data were collected from self-administered questionnaires and school records. A total of 799 girls who had not menstruated in the first year remained in the group through 1994. The effects of potential predictive factors were assessed by logistic regression. Among the 799 girls followed, 69 (8.6%) had first menstruation between the fourth and fifth grades. Height, weight, body mass index and maternal early onset of menarche were positively related to the onset of menarche within the preceding year. Energy consumption during exercise showed only moderate association after being adjusted for age and weight. Calorie intake from junk food was not associated with early menarche within the preceding year. Poor interpersonal family relationships and stressful life events also showed a moderate association with early menarche. The data obtained supported the hypothesis that height, weight, body mass index and maternal early menarche are positive predictive factors of early menarche. The effects of exercise and childhood stress are less prominent.

  3. Roles of Radon-222 and other natural radionuclides in earthquake prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, A.R.; Wollenberg, H.A.; Mosier, D.F.

    1980-01-01

    The concentration of 222 Rn in subsurface waters is one of the natural parameters being investigated to help develop the capability to predict destructive earthquakes. Since 1966, scientists in several nations have sought to link radon variations with ongoing seismic activity, primarily through the dilatancy model for earthquake occurrences. Within the range of these studies, alpha-, beta-, and gamma-radiation detection techniques have been used in both discrete-sampling and continiuous-monitoring programs. These measured techniques are reviewed in terms of instrumentation adapted to seismic-monitoring purposes. A recent Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory study conducted in central California incorporated discrete sampling of wells in the aftershock area of the 1975 Oroville earthquake and continuous monitoring of water radon in a well on the San Andreas Fault. The results presented show short-term radon variations that may be associated with aftershocks and diurnal changes that may reflect earth tidal forces

  4. The efficacy of support vector machines (SVM) in robust determination of earthquake early warning magnitudes in central Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, Ramakrushna; Nair, Rajesh R.

    2013-10-01

    This work deals with a methodology applied to seismic early warning systems which are designed to provide real-time estimation of the magnitude of an event. We will reappraise the work of Simons et al. (2006), who on the basis of wavelet approach predicted a magnitude error of ±1. We will verify and improve upon the methodology of Simons et al. (2006) by applying an SVM statistical learning machine on the time-scale wavelet decomposition methods. We used the data of 108 events in central Japan with magnitude ranging from 3 to 7.4 recorded at KiK-net network stations, for a source-receiver distance of up to 150 km during the period 1998-2011. We applied a wavelet transform on the seismogram data and calculating scale-dependent threshold wavelet coefficients. These coefficients were then classified into low magnitude and high magnitude events by constructing a maximum margin hyperplane between the two classes, which forms the essence of SVMs. Further, the classified events from both the classes were picked up and linear regressions were plotted to determine the relationship between wavelet coefficient magnitude and earthquake magnitude, which in turn helped us to estimate the earthquake magnitude of an event given its threshold wavelet coefficient. At wavelet scale number 7, we predicted the earthquake magnitude of an event within 2.7 seconds. This means that a magnitude determination is available within 2.7 s after the initial onset of the P-wave. These results shed light on the application of SVM as a way to choose the optimal regression function to estimate the magnitude from a few seconds of an incoming seismogram. This would improve the approaches from Simons et al. (2006) which use an average of the two regression functions to estimate the magnitude.

  5. A global earthquake discrimination scheme to optimize ground-motion prediction equation selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Daniel; Wald, David J.; Hearne, Michael

    2012-01-01

    We present a new automatic earthquake discrimination procedure to determine in near-real time the tectonic regime and seismotectonic domain of an earthquake, its most likely source type, and the corresponding ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) class to be used in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Global ShakeMap system. This method makes use of the Flinn–Engdahl regionalization scheme, seismotectonic information (plate boundaries, global geology, seismicity catalogs, and regional and local studies), and the source parameters available from the USGS National Earthquake Information Center in the minutes following an earthquake to give the best estimation of the setting and mechanism of the event. Depending on the tectonic setting, additional criteria based on hypocentral depth, style of faulting, and regional seismicity may be applied. For subduction zones, these criteria include the use of focal mechanism information and detailed interface models to discriminate among outer-rise, upper-plate, interface, and intraslab seismicity. The scheme is validated against a large database of recent historical earthquakes. Though developed to assess GMPE selection in Global ShakeMap operations, we anticipate a variety of uses for this strategy, from real-time processing systems to any analysis involving tectonic classification of sources from seismic catalogs.

  6. CN earthquake prediction algorithm and the monitoring of the future strong Vrancea events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moldoveanu, C.L.; Radulian, M.; Novikova, O.V.; Panza, G.F.

    2002-01-01

    The strong earthquakes originating at intermediate-depth in the Vrancea region (located in the SE corner of the highly bent Carpathian arc) represent one of the most important natural disasters able to induce heavy effects (high tool of casualties and extensive damage) in the Romanian territory. The occurrence of these earthquakes is irregular, but not infrequent. Their effects are felt over a large territory, from Central Europe to Moscow and from Greece to Scandinavia. The largest cultural and economical center exposed to the seismic risk due to the Vrancea earthquakes is Bucharest. This metropolitan area (230 km 2 wide) is characterized by the presence of 2.5 million inhabitants (10% of the country population) and by a considerable number of high-risk structures and infrastructures. The best way to face strong earthquakes is to mitigate the seismic risk by using the two possible complementary approaches represented by (a) the antiseismic design of structures and infrastructures (able to support strong earthquakes without significant damage), and (b) the strong earthquake prediction (in terms of alarm intervals declared for long, intermediate or short-term space-and time-windows). The intermediate term medium-range earthquake prediction represents the most realistic target to be reached at the present state of knowledge. The alarm declared in this case extends over a time window of about one year or more, and a space window of a few hundreds of kilometers. In the case of Vrancea events the spatial uncertainty is much less, being of about 100 km. The main measures for the mitigation of the seismic risk allowed by the intermediate-term medium-range prediction are: (a) verification of the buildings and infrastructures stability and reinforcement measures when required, (b) elaboration of emergency plans of action, (c) schedule of the main actions required in order to restore the normality of the social and economical life after the earthquake. The paper presents the

  7. Testing and comparison of three frequency-based magnitude estimating parameters for earthquake early warning based events in the Yunnan region, China in 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jianjing; Li, Hongjie

    2018-06-01

    To mitigate potential seismic disasters in the Yunnan region, China, building up suitable magnitude estimation scaling laws for an earthquake early warning system (EEWS) is in high demand. In this paper, the records from the main and after-shocks of the Yingjiang earthquake (M W 5.9), the Ludian earthquake (M W 6.2) and the Jinggu earthquake (M W 6.1), which occurred in Yunnan in 2014, were used to develop three estimators, including the maximum of the predominant period ({{τ }{{p}}}\\max ), the characteristic period (τ c) and the log-average period (τ log), for estimating earthquake magnitude. The correlations between these three frequency-based parameters and catalog magnitudes were developed, compared and evaluated against previous studies. The amplitude and period of seismic waves might be amplified in the Ludian mountain-canyon area by multiple reflections and resonance, leading to excessive values of the calculated parameters, which are consistent with Sichuan’s scaling. As a result, τ log was best correlated with magnitude and τ c had the highest slope of regression equation, while {{τ }{{p}}}\\max performed worst with large scatter and less sensitivity for the change of magnitude. No evident saturation occurred in the case of M 6.1 and M 6.2 in this study. Even though both τ c and τ log performed similarly and can well reflect the size of the Earthquake, τ log has slightly fewer prediction errors for small scale earthquakes (M ≤ 4.5), which was also observed by previous research. Our work offers an insight into the feasibility of a EEWS in Yunnan, China, and this study shows that it is necessary to build up an appropriate scaling law suitable for the warning region.

  8. Tsunami Prediction and Earthquake Parameters Estimation in the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Sawlan, Zaid A

    2012-01-01

    parameters and topography. This thesis introduces a real-time tsunami forecasting method that combines tsunami model with observations using a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble Kalman smoother. The filter is used for state prediction while

  9. Intermediate-term earthquake prediction and seismic zoning in Northern Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panza, G.F.; Orozova Stanishkova, I.; Costa, G.; Vaccari, F.

    1993-12-01

    The algorithm CN for intermediate earthquake prediction has been applied to an area in Northern Italy, which has been chosen according to a recently proposed seismotectonic model. Earthquakes with magnitude ≥ 5.4 occur in the area with a relevant frequency and their occurrence is predicted by algorithm CN. Therefore a seismic hazard analysis has been performed using a deterministic procedure, based on the computation of complete synthetic seismograms. The results are summarized in a map giving the distribution of peak ground acceleration, but the complete time series are available, which can be used by civil engineers in the design of new seismo-resistant constructions and in the retrofitting of the existing ones. This risk reduction action should be intensified in connection with warnings issued on the basis of the forward predictions made by CN. (author). Refs, 7 figs, 1 tab

  10. Foreshock sequences and short-term earthquake predictability on East Pacific Rise transform faults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, Jeffrey J; Boettcher, Margaret S; Jordan, Thomas H

    2005-03-24

    East Pacific Rise transform faults are characterized by high slip rates (more than ten centimetres a year), predominantly aseismic slip and maximum earthquake magnitudes of about 6.5. Using recordings from a hydroacoustic array deployed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, we show here that East Pacific Rise transform faults also have a low number of aftershocks and high foreshock rates compared to continental strike-slip faults. The high ratio of foreshocks to aftershocks implies that such transform-fault seismicity cannot be explained by seismic triggering models in which there is no fundamental distinction between foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks. The foreshock sequences on East Pacific Rise transform faults can be used to predict (retrospectively) earthquakes of magnitude 5.4 or greater, in narrow spatial and temporal windows and with a high probability gain. The predictability of such transform earthquakes is consistent with a model in which slow slip transients trigger earthquakes, enrich their low-frequency radiation and accommodate much of the aseismic plate motion.

  11. Predicted Attenuation Relation and Observed Ground Motion of Gorkha Nepal Earthquake of 25 April 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, R. P.; Ahmad, R.

    2015-12-01

    A comparison of recent observed ground motion parameters of recent Gorkha Nepal earthquake of 25 April 2015 (Mw 7.8) with the predicted ground motion parameters using exitsing attenuation relation of the Himalayan region will be presented. The recent earthquake took about 8000 lives and destroyed thousands of poor quality of buildings and the earthquake was felt by millions of people living in Nepal, China, India, Bangladesh, and Bhutan. The knowledge of ground parameters are very important in developing seismic code of seismic prone regions like Himalaya for better design of buildings. The ground parameters recorded in recent earthquake event and aftershocks are compared with attenuation relations for the Himalayan region, the predicted ground motion parameters show good correlation with the observed ground parameters. The results will be of great use to Civil engineers in updating existing building codes in the Himlayan and surrounding regions and also for the evaluation of seismic hazards. The results clearly show that the attenuation relation developed for the Himalayan region should be only used, other attenuation relations based on other regions fail to provide good estimate of observed ground motion parameters.

  12. Prediction of Global Damage and Reliability Based Upon Sequential Identification and Updating of RC Structures Subject to Earthquakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Skjærbæk, P. S.; Köylüoglu, H. U.

    The paper deals with the prediction of global damage and future structural reliability with special emphasis on sensitivity, bias and uncertainty of these predictions dependent on the statistically equivalent realizations of the future earthquake. The predictions are based on a modified Clough......-Johnston single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) oscillator with three parameters which are calibrated to fit the displacement response and the damage development in the past earthquake....

  13. Recent Achievements of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, D. D.; Liukis, M.; Werner, M. J.; Schorlemmer, D.; Yu, J.; Maechling, P. J.; Zechar, J. D.; Jordan, T. H.

    2015-12-01

    Maria Liukis, SCEC, USC; Maximilian Werner, University of Bristol; Danijel Schorlemmer, GFZ Potsdam; John Yu, SCEC, USC; Philip Maechling, SCEC, USC; Jeremy Zechar, Swiss Seismological Service, ETH; Thomas H. Jordan, SCEC, USC, and the CSEP Working Group The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) supports a global program to conduct prospective earthquake forecasting experiments. CSEP testing centers are now operational in California, New Zealand, Japan, China, and Europe with 435 models under evaluation. The California testing center, operated by SCEC, has been operational since Sept 1, 2007, and currently hosts 30-minute, 1-day, 3-month, 1-year and 5-year forecasts, both alarm-based and probabilistic, for California, the Western Pacific, and worldwide. We have reduced testing latency, implemented prototype evaluation of M8 forecasts, and are currently developing formats and procedures to evaluate externally-hosted forecasts and predictions. These efforts are related to CSEP support of the USGS program in operational earthquake forecasting and a DHS project to register and test external forecast procedures from experts outside seismology. A retrospective experiment for the 2010-2012 Canterbury earthquake sequence has been completed, and the results indicate that some physics-based and hybrid models outperform purely statistical (e.g., ETAS) models. The experiment also demonstrates the power of the CSEP cyberinfrastructure for retrospective testing. Our current development includes evaluation strategies that increase computational efficiency for high-resolution global experiments, such as the evaluation of the Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR) model. We describe the open-source CSEP software that is available to researchers as they develop their forecast models (http://northridge.usc.edu/trac/csep/wiki/MiniCSEP). We also discuss applications of CSEP infrastructure to geodetic transient detection and how CSEP procedures are being

  14. CSEP-Japan: The Japanese node of the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokoi, S.; Tsuruoka, H.; Nanjo, K.; Hirata, N.

    2011-12-01

    Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global project of earthquake predictability research. The final goal of this project is to have a look for the intrinsic predictability of the earthquake rupture process through forecast testing experiments. The Earthquake Research Institute, the University of Tokyo joined the CSEP and started the Japanese testing center called as CSEP-Japan. This testing center constitutes an open access to researchers contributing earthquake forecast models for applied to Japan. A total of 91 earthquake forecast models were submitted on the prospective experiment starting from 1 November 2009. The models are separated into 4 testing classes (1 day, 3 months, 1 year and 3 years) and 3 testing regions covering an area of Japan including sea area, Japanese mainland and Kanto district. We evaluate the performance of the models in the official suite of tests defined by the CSEP. The experiments of 1-day, 3-month, 1-year and 3-year forecasting classes were implemented for 92 rounds, 4 rounds, 1round and 0 round (now in progress), respectively. The results of the 3-month class gave us new knowledge concerning statistical forecasting models. All models showed a good performance for magnitude forecasting. On the other hand, observation is hardly consistent in space-distribution with most models in some cases where many earthquakes occurred at the same spot. Throughout the experiment, it has been clarified that some properties of the CSEP's evaluation tests such as the L-test show strong correlation with the N-test. We are now processing to own (cyber-) infrastructure to support the forecast experiment as follows. (1) Japanese seismicity has changed since the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. The 3rd call for forecasting models was announced in order to promote model improvement for forecasting earthquakes after this earthquake. So, we provide Japanese seismicity catalog maintained by JMA for modelers to study how seismicity

  15. A Hybrid Ground-Motion Prediction Equation for Earthquakes in Western Alberta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spriggs, N.; Yenier, E.; Law, A.; Moores, A. O.

    2015-12-01

    Estimation of ground-motion amplitudes that may be produced by future earthquakes constitutes the foundation of seismic hazard assessment and earthquake-resistant structural design. This is typically done by using a prediction equation that quantifies amplitudes as a function of key seismological variables such as magnitude, distance and site condition. In this study, we develop a hybrid empirical prediction equation for earthquakes in western Alberta, where evaluation of seismic hazard associated with induced seismicity is of particular interest. We use peak ground motions and response spectra from recorded seismic events to model the regional source and attenuation attributes. The available empirical data is limited in the magnitude range of engineering interest (M>4). Therefore, we combine empirical data with a simulation-based model in order to obtain seismologically informed predictions for moderate-to-large magnitude events. The methodology is two-fold. First, we investigate the shape of geometrical spreading in Alberta. We supplement the seismic data with ground motions obtained from mining/quarry blasts, in order to gain insights into the regional attenuation over a wide distance range. A comparison of ground-motion amplitudes for earthquakes and mining/quarry blasts show that both event types decay at similar rates with distance and demonstrate a significant Moho-bounce effect. In the second stage, we calibrate the source and attenuation parameters of a simulation-based prediction equation to match the available amplitude data from seismic events. We model the geometrical spreading using a trilinear function with attenuation rates obtained from the first stage, and calculate coefficients of anelastic attenuation and site amplification via regression analysis. This provides a hybrid ground-motion prediction equation that is calibrated for observed motions in western Alberta and is applicable to moderate-to-large magnitude events.

  16. The ordered network structure and prediction summary for M ≥ 7 earthquakes in Xinjiang region of China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Men, Ke-Pei; Zhao, Kai

    2014-01-01

    M ≥ 7 earthquakes have showed an obvious commensurability and orderliness in Xinjiang of China and its adjacent region since 1800. The main orderly values are 30 a x k (k = 1, 2, 3), 11 ∝ 12 a, 41 ∝ 43 a, 18 ∝ 19 a, and 5 ∝ 6 a. In the guidance of the information forecasting theory of Wen-Bo Weng, based on previous research results, combining ordered network structure analysis with complex network technology, we focus on the prediction summary of M ≥ 7 earthquakes by using the ordered network structure, and add new information to further optimize network, hence construct the 2D- and 3D-ordered network structure of M ≥ 7 earthquakes. In this paper, the network structure revealed fully the regularity of seismic activity of M ≥ 7 earthquakes in the study region during the past 210 years. Based on this, the Karakorum M7.1 earthquake in 1996, the M7.9 earthquake on the frontier of Russia, Mongol, and China in 2003, and two Yutian M7.3 earthquakes in 2008 and 2014 were predicted successfully. At the same time, a new prediction opinion is presented that the future two M ≥ 7 earthquakes will probably occur around 2019-2020 and 2025-2026 in this region. The results show that large earthquake occurred in defined region can be predicted. The method of ordered network structure analysis produces satisfactory results for the mid-and-long term prediction of M ≥ 7 earthquakes.

  17. Earthquake prediction in California using regression algorithms and cloud-based big data infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asencio-Cortés, G.; Morales-Esteban, A.; Shang, X.; Martínez-Álvarez, F.

    2018-06-01

    Earthquake magnitude prediction is a challenging problem that has been widely studied during the last decades. Statistical, geophysical and machine learning approaches can be found in literature, with no particularly satisfactory results. In recent years, powerful computational techniques to analyze big data have emerged, making possible the analysis of massive datasets. These new methods make use of physical resources like cloud based architectures. California is known for being one of the regions with highest seismic activity in the world and many data are available. In this work, the use of several regression algorithms combined with ensemble learning is explored in the context of big data (1 GB catalog is used), in order to predict earthquakes magnitude within the next seven days. Apache Spark framework, H2 O library in R language and Amazon cloud infrastructure were been used, reporting very promising results.

  18. The International Platform on Earthquake Early Warning Systems (IP-EEWS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, Jair; Fanchiotti, Margherita

    2017-04-01

    The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 recognizes the need to "substantially increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster risk information and assessments to the people by 2030" as one of its global targets (target "g"). While considerable progress has been made in recent decades, early warning systems (EWSs) continue to be less developed for geo-hazards and significant challenges remain in advancing the development of EWSs for specific hazards, particularly for fastest onset hazards such as earthquakes. An earthquake early warning system (EEWS) helps in disseminating timely information about potentially catastrophic earthquake hazards to the public, emergency managers and the private sector to provide enough time to implement automatized emergency measures. At the same time, these systems help to reduce considerably the CO2 emissions produced by the catastrophic impacts and subsequent effects of earthquakes, such as those generated by fires, collapses, and pollution (among others), as well as those produced in the recovery and reconstruction processes. In recent years, EEWSs have been developed independently in few countries: EEWSs have shown operational in Japan and Mexico, while other regions in California (USA), Turkey, Italy, Canada, South Korea and China (including Taiwan) are in the development stages or under restricted applications. Many other countries in the Indian Subcontinent, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Middle East, Eastern Africa, Southeast Africa, as well as Central America, South America and the Caribbean, are located in some of the most seismically active regions in the world, or present moderate seismicity but high vulnerability, and would strongly benefit from the development of EEWSs. Given that, in many instances, the development of an EEWS still requires further testing, increased density coverage in seismic observation stations, regional coordination, and further scientific

  19. Inelastic spectra to predict period elongation of structures under earthquake loading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Katsanos, Evangelos; Sextos, A.G.

    2015-01-01

    Period lengthening, exhibited by structures when subjected to strong ground motions, constitutes an implicit proxy of structural inelasticity and associated damage. However, the reliable prediction of the inelastic period is tedious and a multi-parametric task, which is related to both epistemic ...... for period lengthening as a function of Ry and Tel. These equations may be used in the framework of the earthquake record selection and scaling....

  20. Comparison of Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPE) for Chile and Canada With Recent Chilean Megathust Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera, C.; Cassidy, J. F.; Dosso, S. E.

    2017-12-01

    The ground shaking assessment allows quantifying the hazards associated with the occurrence of earthquakes. Chile and western Canada are two areas that have experienced, and are susceptible to imminent large crustal, in-slab and megathrust earthquakes that can affect the population significantly. In this context, we compare the current GMPEs used in the 2015 National Building Code of Canada and the most recent GMPEs calculated for Chile, with observed accelerations generated by four recent Chilean megathrust earthquakes (MW ≥ 7.7) that have occurred during the past decade, which is essential to quantify how well current models predict observations of major events.We collected the 3-component waveform data of more than 90 stations from the Centro Sismologico Nacional and the Universidad de Chile, and processed them by removing the trend and applying a band-pass filter. Then, for each station, we obtained the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), and by using a damped response spectra, we calculated the Pseudo Spectral Acceleration (PSA). Finally, we compared those observations with the most recent Chilean and Canadian GMPEs. Given the lack of geotechnical information for most of the Chilean stations, we also used a new method to obtain the VS30 by inverting the H/V ratios using a trans-dimensional Bayesian inversion, which allows us to improve the correction of observations according to soil conditions.As expected, our results show a good fit between observations and the Chilean GMPEs, but we observe that although the shape of the Canadian GMPEs is coherent with the distribution of observations, in general they under predict the observations for PGA and PSA at shorter periods for most of the considered earthquakes. An example of this can be seen in the attached figure for the case of the 2014 Iquique earthquake.These results present important implications related to the hazards associated to large earthquakes, especially for western Canada, where the probability of a

  1. WHY WE CANNOT PREDICT STRONG EARTHQUAKES IN THE EARTH’S CRUST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iosif L. Gufeld

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In the past decade, earthquake disasters caused multiple fatalities and significant economic losses and challenged the modern civilization. The wellknown achievements and growing power of civilization are backstrapped when facing the Nature. The question arises, what hinders solving a problem of earthquake prediction, while longterm and continuous seismic monitoring systems are in place in many regions of the world. For instance, there was no forecast of the Japan Great Earthquake of March 11, 2011, despite the fact that monitoring conditions for its prediction were unique. Its focal zone was 100–200 km away from the monitoring network installed in the area of permanent seismic hazard, which is subject to nonstop and longterm seismic monitoring. Lesson should be learned from our common fiasco in forecasting, taking into account research results obtained during the past 50–60 years. It is now evident that we failed to identify precursors of the earthquakes. Prior to the earthquake occurrence, the observed local anomalies of various fields reflected other processes that were mistakenly viewed as processes of preparation for largescale faulting. For many years, geotectonic situations were analyzed on the basis of the physics of destruction of laboratory specimens, which was applied to the lithospheric conditions. Many researchers realize that such an approach is inaccurate. Nonetheless, persistent attempts are being undertaken with application of modern computation to detect anomalies of various fields, which may be interpreted as earthquake precursors. In our opinion, such illusory intentions were smashed by the Great Japan Earthquake (Figure 6. It is also obvious that sufficient attention has not been given yet to fundamental studies of seismic processes.This review presents the authors’ opinion concerning the origin of the seismic process and strong earthquakes, being part of the process. The authors realize that a wide discussion is

  2. Sounding the Alert: Designing an Effective Voice for Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, E. R.; Given, D. D.

    2015-12-01

    The USGS is working with partners to develop the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system (http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2014/3083/) to protect life and property along the U.S. West Coast, where the highest national seismic hazard is concentrated. EEW sends an alert that shaking from an earthquake is on its way (in seconds to tens of seconds) to allow recipients or automated systems to take appropriate actions at their location to protect themselves and/or sensitive equipment. ShakeAlert is transitioning toward a production prototype phase in which test users might begin testing applications of the technology. While a subset of uses will be automated (e.g., opening fire house doors), other applications will alert individuals by radio or cellphone notifications and require behavioral decisions to protect themselves (e.g., "Drop, Cover, Hold On"). The project needs to select and move forward with a consistent alert sound to be widely and quickly recognized as an earthquake alert. In this study we combine EEW science and capabilities with an understanding of human behavior from the social and psychological sciences to provide insight toward the design of effective sounds to help best motivate proper action by alert recipients. We present a review of existing research and literature, compiled as considerations and recommendations for alert sound characteristics optimized for EEW. We do not yet address wording of an audible message about the earthquake (e.g., intensity and timing until arrival of shaking or possible actions), although it will be a future component to accompany the sound. We consider pitch(es), loudness, rhythm, tempo, duration, and harmony. Important behavioral responses to sound to take into account include that people respond to discordant sounds with anxiety, can be calmed by harmony and softness, and are innately alerted by loud and abrupt sounds, although levels high enough to be auditory stressors can negatively impact human judgment.

  3. Method to Determine Appropriate Source Models of Large Earthquakes Including Tsunami Earthquakes for Tsunami Early Warning in Central America

    OpenAIRE

    Tanioka, Yuichiro; Miranda, Greyving Jose Arguello; Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Fujii, Yushiro

    2017-01-01

    Large earthquakes, such as the Mw 7.7 1992 Nicaragua earthquake, have occurred off the Pacific coasts of El Salvador and Nicaragua in Central America and have generated distractive tsunamis along these coasts. It is necessary to determine appropriate fault models before large tsunamis hit the coast. In this study, first, fault parameters were estimated from the W-phase inversion, and then an appropriate fault model was determined from the fault parameters and scaling relationships with a dept...

  4. Early Adolescent Affect Predicts Later Life Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kansky, Jessica; Allen, Joseph P; Diener, Ed

    2016-07-01

    Subjective well-being as a predictor for later behavior and health has highlighted its relationship to health, work performance, and social relationships. However, the majority of such studies neglect the developmental nature of well-being in contributing to important changes across the transition to adulthood. To examine the potential role of subjective well-being as a long-term predictor of critical life outcomes, we examined indicators of positive and negative affect at age 14 as predictors of relationship, adjustment, self-worth, and career outcomes a decade later at ages 23 to 25, controlling for family income and gender. We utilised multi-informant methods including reports from the target participant, close friends, and romantic partners in a demographically diverse community sample of 184 participants. Early adolescent positive affect predicted fewer relationship problems (less self-reported and partner-reported conflict, and greater friendship attachment as rated by close peers) and healthy adjustment to adulthood (lower levels of depression, anxiety, and loneliness). It also predicted positive work functioning (higher levels of career satisfaction and job competence) and increased self-worth. Negative affect did not significantly predict any of these important life outcomes. In addition to predicting desirable mean levels of later outcomes, early positive affect predicted beneficial changes across time in many outcomes. The findings extend early research on the beneficial outcomes of subjective well-being by having an earlier assessment of well-being, including informant reports in measuring a large variety of outcome variables, and by extending the findings to a lower socioeconomic group of a diverse and younger sample. The results highlight the importance of considering positive affect as an important component of subjective well-being distinct from negative affect. © 2016 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

  5. VELOCITY AND GRAVITATIONAL EFFECTS ON GPS SATELLITES: AN OUTLINE OF EARLY PREDICTION AND DETECTION OF STRONG EARTHQUAKES EFECTOS DE VELOCIDAD Y DE GRAVITACIÓN EN GPS SATELITALES: UN ESQUEMA PARA LA PREDICCIÓN Y DETECCIÓN TEMPRANA DE FUERTES TERREMOTOS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H Torres-Silva

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Today, the global navigation satellite systems, GPS used as global positioning systems, are based on a gravitational model and hence they are only operative when several relativistic effects are taken into account. The most important relativistic effects (to order 1/c² are: the Doppler red shift of second order, due to the motion of the satellite (special relativity and the Einstein gravitational blue shift effect of the satellite clock frequency (equivalence principle of general relativity. Both of these effects can be treated at a basic level, making for an appealing application of relativity to every life. This paper examines the significant effects that must be taken into account in the design and operation of systems GPS without resorting to the theory of special and general relativity, yielding the same results for these systems, where one of the effects can be treated with the time contraction approach proposed here and the other using the Newton's theory as an approximation of the General Relativity. This approach allow us to propose an outline of early prediction and detection on strong earthquake phenomena.Hoy en día, los sistemas de navegación global por satélite, GPS utilizados como sistemas de posicionamiento global, se basan en un modelo gravitacional y por lo tanto solo son operativos cuando varios efectos relativistas son tenidos en cuenta. Los efectos relativistas más importantes (hasta el orden 1/c² son: el desplazamiento Doppler al rojo de segundo orden, debido al movimiento del satélite (la relatividad especial y el efecto gravitacional de Einstein corrimiento al azul de la frecuencia de reloj del satélite (principio de equivalencia de la relatividad general. Ambos efectos pueden ser tratados en un nivel básico, apelando a la relatividad del día a día. Este artículo examina los efectos significativos que deben tenerse en cuenta en la operación de sistemas de GPS sin tener que recurrir a las teorías de la

  6. A new Bayesian Inference-based Phase Associator for Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Men-Andrin; Heaton, Thomas; Clinton, John; Wiemer, Stefan

    2013-04-01

    State of the art network-based Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems can provide warnings for large magnitude 7+ earthquakes. Although regions in the direct vicinity of the epicenter will not receive warnings prior to damaging shaking, real-time event characterization is available before the destructive S-wave arrival across much of the strongly affected region. In contrast, in the case of the more frequent medium size events, such as the devastating 1994 Mw6.7 Northridge, California, earthquake, providing timely warning to the smaller damage zone is more difficult. For such events the "blind zone" of current systems (e.g. the CISN ShakeAlert system in California) is similar in size to the area over which severe damage occurs. We propose a faster and more robust Bayesian inference-based event associator, that in contrast to the current standard associators (e.g. Earthworm Binder), is tailored to EEW and exploits information other than only phase arrival times. In particular, the associator potentially allows for reliable automated event association with as little as two observations, which, compared to the ShakeAlert system, would speed up the real-time characterizations by about ten seconds and thus reduce the blind zone area by up to 80%. We compile an extensive data set of regional and teleseismic earthquake and noise waveforms spanning a wide range of earthquake magnitudes and tectonic regimes. We pass these waveforms through a causal real-time filterbank with passband filters between 0.1 and 50Hz, and, updating every second from the event detection, extract the maximum amplitudes in each frequency band. Using this dataset, we define distributions of amplitude maxima in each passband as a function of epicentral distance and magnitude. For the real-time data, we pass incoming broadband and strong motion waveforms through the same filterbank and extract an evolving set of maximum amplitudes in each passband. We use the maximum amplitude distributions to check

  7. Predicting Dynamic Response of Structures under Earthquake Loads Using Logical Analysis of Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayman Abd-Elhamed

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, logical analysis of data (LAD is used to predict the seismic response of building structures employing the captured dynamic responses. In order to prepare the data, computational simulations using a single degree of freedom (SDOF building model under different ground motion records are carried out. The selected excitation records are real and of different peak ground accelerations (PGA. The sensitivity of the seismic response in terms of displacements of floors to the variation in earthquake characteristics, such as soil class, characteristic period, and time step of records, peak ground displacement, and peak ground velocity, have also been considered. The dynamic equation of motion describing the building model and the applied earthquake load are presented and solved incrementally using the Runge-Kutta method. LAD then finds the characteristic patterns which lead to forecast the seismic response of building structures. The accuracy of LAD is compared to that of an artificial neural network (ANN, since the latter is the most known machine learning technique. Based on the conducted study, the proposed LAD model has been proven to be an efficient technique to learn, simulate, and blindly predict the dynamic response behaviour of building structures subjected to earthquake loads.

  8. Near-fault earthquake ground motion prediction by a high-performance spectral element numerical code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paolucci, Roberto; Stupazzini, Marco

    2008-01-01

    Near-fault effects have been widely recognised to produce specific features of earthquake ground motion, that cannot be reliably predicted by 1D seismic wave propagation modelling, used as a standard in engineering applications. These features may have a relevant impact on the structural response, especially in the nonlinear range, that is hard to predict and to be put in a design format, due to the scarcity of significant earthquake records and of reliable numerical simulations. In this contribution a pilot study is presented for the evaluation of seismic ground-motions in the near-fault region, based on a high-performance numerical code for 3D seismic wave propagation analyses, including the seismic fault, the wave propagation path and the near-surface geological or topographical irregularity. For this purpose, the software package GeoELSE is adopted, based on the spectral element method. The set-up of the numerical benchmark of 3D ground motion simulation in the valley of Grenoble (French Alps) is chosen to study the effect of the complex interaction between basin geometry and radiation mechanism on the variability of earthquake ground motion

  9. Analysis methods for predicting the behaviour of isolators and formulation of simplified models for use in predicting response of structures to earthquake type input

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    This report describes the simplified models for predicting the response of high-damping natural rubber bearings (HDNRB) to earthquake ground motions and benchmark problems for assessing the accuracy of finite element analyses in designing base-isolators. (author)

  10. Use of Kazakh nuclear explosions for testing dilatancy diffusion model of earthquake prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Srivastava, H.N.

    1979-01-01

    P wave travel time anomalies from Kazakh explosions during the years 1965-1972 were studied with reference to Jeffreys Bullen (1952) and Herrin Travel time tables (1968) and discussed using F ratio test at seven stations in Himachal Pradesh. For these events, the temporal and spatial variations of travel time residuals were examined from the point of view of long term changes in velocity known to precede earthquakes and local geology. The results show perference for Herrin Travel time tables at these epicentral distances from Kazakh explosions. F ratio test indicated that variation between sample means of different stations in the network showed more variation than can be attributed to the sampling error. Although the spatial variation of mean residuals (1965-1972) could generally be explained on the basis of the local geology, the temporal variations of such residuals from Kazakh explosions offer limited application in the testing of dilatancy model of earthquake prediction. (auth.)

  11. Earthquake prediction using extinct monogenetic volcanoes: A possible new research strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szakács, Alexandru

    2011-04-01

    Volcanoes are extremely effective transmitters of matter, energy and information from the deep Earth towards its surface. Their capacities as information carriers are far to be fully exploited so far. Volcanic conduits can be viewed in general as rod-like or sheet-like vertical features with relatively homogenous composition and structure crosscutting geological structures of far more complexity and compositional heterogeneity. Information-carrying signals such as earthquake precursor signals originating deep below the Earth surface are transmitted with much less loss of information through homogenous vertically extended structures than through the horizontally segmented heterogeneous lithosphere or crust. Volcanic conduits can thus be viewed as upside-down "antennas" or waveguides which can be used as privileged pathways of any possible earthquake precursor signal. In particular, conduits of monogenetic volcanoes are promising transmitters of deep Earth information to be received and decoded at surface monitoring stations because the expected more homogenous nature of their rock-fill as compared to polygenetic volcanoes. Among monogenetic volcanoes those with dominantly effusive activity appear as the best candidates for privileged earthquake monitoring sites. In more details, effusive monogenetic volcanic conduits filled with rocks of primitive parental magma composition indicating direct ascent from sub-lithospheric magma-generating areas are the most suitable. Further selection criteria may include age of the volcanism considered and the presence of mantle xenoliths in surface volcanic products indicating direct and straightforward link between the deep lithospheric mantle and surface through the conduit. Innovative earthquake prediction research strategies can be based and developed on these grounds by considering conduits of selected extinct monogenetic volcanoes and deep trans-crustal fractures as privileged emplacement sites of seismic monitoring stations

  12. State Vector: A New Approach to Prediction of the Failure of Brittle Heterogeneous Media and Large Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Huai-Zhong; Yin, Xiang-Chu; Zhu, Qing-Yong; Yan, Yu-Ding

    2006-12-01

    The concept of state vector stems from statistical physics, where it is usually used to describe activity patterns of a physical field in its manner of coarsegrain. In this paper, we propose an approach by which the state vector was applied to describe quantitatively the damage evolution of the brittle heterogeneous systems, and some interesting results are presented, i.e., prior to the macro-fracture of rock specimens and occurrence of a strong earthquake, evolutions of the four relevant scalars time series derived from the state vectors changed anomalously. As retrospective studies, some prominent large earthquakes occurred in the Chinese Mainland (e.g., the M 7.4 Haicheng earthquake on February 4, 1975, and the M 7.8 Tangshan earthquake on July 28, 1976, etc) were investigated. Results show considerable promise that the time-dependent state vectors could serve as a kind of precursor to predict earthquakes.

  13. Prediction of the area affected by earthquake-induced landsliding based on seismological parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marc, Odin; Meunier, Patrick; Hovius, Niels

    2017-07-01

    We present an analytical, seismologically consistent expression for the surface area of the region within which most landslides triggered by an earthquake are located (landslide distribution area). This expression is based on scaling laws relating seismic moment, source depth, and focal mechanism with ground shaking and fault rupture length and assumes a globally constant threshold of acceleration for onset of systematic mass wasting. The seismological assumptions are identical to those recently used to propose a seismologically consistent expression for the total volume and area of landslides triggered by an earthquake. To test the accuracy of the model we gathered geophysical information and estimates of the landslide distribution area for 83 earthquakes. To reduce uncertainties and inconsistencies in the estimation of the landslide distribution area, we propose an objective definition based on the shortest distance from the seismic wave emission line containing 95 % of the total landslide area. Without any empirical calibration the model explains 56 % of the variance in our dataset, and predicts 35 to 49 out of 83 cases within a factor of 2, depending on how we account for uncertainties on the seismic source depth. For most cases with comprehensive landslide inventories we show that our prediction compares well with the smallest region around the fault containing 95 % of the total landslide area. Aspects ignored by the model that could explain the residuals include local variations of the threshold of acceleration and processes modulating the surface ground shaking, such as the distribution of seismic energy release on the fault plane, the dynamic stress drop, and rupture directivity. Nevertheless, its simplicity and first-order accuracy suggest that the model can yield plausible and useful estimates of the landslide distribution area in near-real time, with earthquake parameters issued by standard detection routines.

  14. An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor

    2016-01-01

    A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities' preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model's algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties.

  15. Crowdsourcing Rapid Assessment of Collapsed Buildings Early after the Earthquake Based on Aerial Remote Sensing Image: A Case Study of Yushu Earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuai Xie

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Remote sensing (RS images play a significant role in disaster emergency response. Web2.0 changes the way data are created, making it possible for the public to participate in scientific issues. In this paper, an experiment is designed to evaluate the reliability of crowdsourcing buildings collapse assessment in the early time after an earthquake based on aerial remote sensing image. The procedure of RS data pre-processing and crowdsourcing data collection is presented. A probabilistic model including maximum likelihood estimation (MLE, Bayes’ theorem and expectation-maximization (EM algorithm are applied to quantitatively estimate the individual error-rate and “ground truth” according to multiple participants’ assessment results. An experimental area of Yushu earthquake is provided to present the results contributed by participants. Following the results, some discussion is provided regarding accuracy and variation among participants. The features of buildings labeled as the same damage type are found highly consistent. This suggests that the building damage assessment contributed by crowdsourcing can be treated as reliable samples. This study shows potential for a rapid building collapse assessment through crowdsourcing and quantitatively inferring “ground truth” according to crowdsourcing data in the early time after the earthquake based on aerial remote sensing image.

  16. Prediction of accident sequence probabilities in a nuclear power plant due to earthquake events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hudson, J.M.; Collins, J.D.

    1980-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology to predict accident probabilities in nuclear power plants subject to earthquakes. The resulting computer program accesses response data to compute component failure probabilities using fragility functions. Using logical failure definitions for systems, and the calculated component failure probabilities, initiating event and safety system failure probabilities are synthesized. The incorporation of accident sequence expressions allows the calculation of terminal event probabilities. Accident sequences, with their occurrence probabilities, are finally coupled to a specific release category. A unique aspect of the methodology is an analytical procedure for calculating top event probabilities based on the correlated failure of primary events

  17. Prediction of strong ground motion based on scaling law of earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamae, Katsuhiro; Irikura, Kojiro; Fukuchi, Yasunaga.

    1991-01-01

    In order to predict more practically strong ground motion, it is important to study how to use a semi-empirical method in case of having no appropriate observation records for actual small-events as empirical Green's functions. We propose a prediction procedure using artificially simulated small ground motions as substitute for the actual motions. First, we simulate small-event motion by means of stochastic simulation method proposed by Boore (1983) in considering pass effects such as attenuation, and broadening of waveform envelope empirically in the objective region. Finally, we attempt to predict the strong ground motion due to a future large earthquake (M 7, Δ = 13 km) using the same summation procedure as the empirical Green's function method. We obtained the results that the characteristics of the synthetic motion using M 5 motion were in good agreement with those by the empirical Green's function method. (author)

  18. Incorporating Low-Cost Seismometers into the Central Weather Bureau Seismic Network for Earthquake Early Warning in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Da-Yi Chen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A dense seismic network can increase Earthquake Early Warning (EEW system capability to estimate earthquake information with higher accuracy. It is also critical for generating fast, robust earthquake alarms before strong-ground shaking hits the target area. However, building a dense seismic network via traditional seismometers is too expensive and may not be practical. Using low-cost Micro-Electro Mechanical System (MEMS accelerometers is a potential solution to quickly deploy a large number of sensors around the monitored region. An EEW system constructed using a dense seismic network with 543 MEMS sensors in Taiwan is presented. The system also incorporates the official seismic network of _ Central Weather Bureau (CWB. The real-time data streams generated by the two networks are integrated using the Earthworm software. This paper illustrates the methods used by the integrated system for estimating earthquake information and evaluates the system performance. We applied the Earthworm picker for the seismograms recorded by the MEMS sensors (Chen et al. 2015 following new picking constraints to accurately detect P-wave arrivals and use a new regression equation for estimating earthquake magnitudes. An off-line test was implemented using 46 earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from ML 4.5 - 6.5 to calibrate the system. The experimental results show that the integrated system has stable source parameter results and issues alarms much faster than the current system run by the CWB seismic network (CWBSN.

  19. Status of Public Earthquake Early Warning in the U.S

    Science.gov (United States)

    Given, D. D.

    2013-12-01

    Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) is a proven use of seismological science that can give people and businesses outside the epicentral area of a large earthquake up to a minute to take protective actions before the most destructive shaking hits them. Since 2006 several organizations have been collaborating to create such a system in the United States. These groups include the US Geological Survey, Caltech, UC Berkeley, the University of Washington, the Southern California Earthquake Center, the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zürich, the California Office of Emergency Services, and the California Geological Survey. A demonstration version of the system, called ShakeAlert, began sending test notifications to selected users in California in January 2012. In August 2012 San Francisco's Bay Area Rapid Transit district began slowing and stopping trains in response to strong ground shaking. The next step in the project is to progress to a production prototype for the west coast. The system is built on top of the considerable technical and organizational earthquake monitoring infrastructure of the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS). While a fully functional, robust, public EEW system will require significant new investment and development in several major areas, modest progress is being made with current resources. First, high-quality sensors must be installed with sufficient density, particularly near source faults. Where possible, we are upgrading and augmenting the existing ANSS networks on the west coast. Second, data telemetry from those sensors must be engineered for speed and reliability. Next, robust central processing infrastructure is being designed and built. Also, computer algorithms to detect and characterize the evolving earthquake must be further developed and tested. Last year the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation funded USGS, Caltech, UCB and UW to accelerate R&D efforts. Every available means of distributing alerts must be used to insure the

  20. Experience of an orthoplastic limb salvage team after the Haiti earthquake: analysis of caseload and early outcomes.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Clover, A James P

    2011-06-01

    After the devastating earthquake in Haiti on January 12, 2010, a British orthoplastic limb salvage team was mobilized. The team operated in a suburb of Port-au-Prince from January 20, 2010. This analysis gives an overview of the caseload and early outcomes.

  1. Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, X. C.; Mora, P.; Peng, K.; Wang, Y. C.; Weatherley, D.

    The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

  2. Automatic Event Detection and Picking of P, S Seismic Phases for Earthquake Early Warning: A Case Study of the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    WANG, Z.; Zhao, B.

    2015-12-01

    We develop an automatic seismic phase arrival detection and picking algorithm for the impending earthquakes occurred with diverse focal mechanisms and depths. The polarization analysis of the three-component seismograms is utilized to distinguish between P and S waves through a sliding time window. When applying the short term average/long term average (STA/LTA) method to the polarized data, we also construct a new characteristics function that can sensitively reflect the changes of signals' amplitude and frequency, providing a better detection for the phase arrival. Then an improved combination method of the higher order statistics and the Akaike information criteria (AIC) picker is applied to the refined signal to lock on the arrival time with a higher degree of accuracy. We test our techniques to the aftershocks of the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, where hundreds of three-component acceleration records with magnitudes of 4.0 to 6.4 are treated. In comparison to the analyst picks, the results of the proposed detection algorithms are shown to perform well and can be applied from a single instrument within a network of stations for the large seismic events in the Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS).

  3. Earthquake Forecasting Methodology Catalogue - A collection and comparison of the state-of-the-art in earthquake forecasting and prediction methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, Andreas; Daniell, James; Wenzel, Friedemann

    2015-04-01

    Earthquake forecasting and prediction has been one of the key struggles of modern geosciences for the last few decades. A large number of approaches for various time periods have been developed for different locations around the world. A categorization and review of more than 20 of new and old methods was undertaken to develop a state-of-the-art catalogue in forecasting algorithms and methodologies. The different methods have been categorised into time-independent, time-dependent and hybrid methods, from which the last group represents methods where additional data than just historical earthquake statistics have been used. It is necessary to categorize in such a way between pure statistical approaches where historical earthquake data represents the only direct data source and also between algorithms which incorporate further information e.g. spatial data of fault distributions or which incorporate physical models like static triggering to indicate future earthquakes. Furthermore, the location of application has been taken into account to identify methods which can be applied e.g. in active tectonic regions like California or in less active continental regions. In general, most of the methods cover well-known high-seismicity regions like Italy, Japan or California. Many more elements have been reviewed, including the application of established theories and methods e.g. for the determination of the completeness magnitude or whether the modified Omori law was used or not. Target temporal scales are identified as well as the publication history. All these different aspects have been reviewed and catalogued to provide an easy-to-use tool for the development of earthquake forecasting algorithms and to get an overview in the state-of-the-art.

  4. Humanizing Aggregated Data: Developing Personas to Prioritize User Needs for Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, E. R.; Jayanty, N. K.; Sellnow, D. D.; Given, D. D.; DeGroot, R. M.

    2016-12-01

    Methods that use storytelling to gather and synthesize data from people can be advantageous in understanding user needs and designing successful communication products. Using a multidisciplinary approach, we research and prioritize user needs for the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning system (http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2014/3083/), drawing on best practices from social and behavioral science, risk communication, and human-centered design. We apply quantitative and qualitative human data collection methods including user surveys, interviews, journey maps, personas, and scenarios. Human-centered design methods leverage storytelling (a) in the acquisition of qualitative behavioral data (e.g. with journey mapping), (b) through goal-driven behaviors and needs that are synthesized into a persona as a composite model of the data, and (c) within context scenarios (the story plot or projected circumstances) in which the persona is placed in context to inform the design of relevant and usable products or services. ShakeAlert, operated by the USGS and partners, has transitioned into a production prototype phase in which users are permitted to begin testing pilot implementations to take protective actions in response to an earthquake alert. While a subset of responses will be automated (e.g., opening fire house doors), other applications of the technology will alert individuals by broadcast, public address, or mobile device notifications and require self-protective behavioral decisions (e.g., "Drop, Cover, and Hold On"). To better understand ShakeAlert user decisions and needs, we use human-centered design methods to synthesize aggregated behavioral data into "personas," which model the common behavioral patterns that can be used to guide plans for the ShakeAlert interface, messaging, and training. We present user data, methods, and resulting personas that will inform decisions moving forward to shape ShakeAlert messaging and training that will be most usable by alert recipients.

  5. The ordered network structure of M {>=} 6 strong earthquakes and its prediction in the Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Men, Ke-Pei [Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology (China). College of Mathematics and Statistics; Cui, Lei [California Univ., Santa Barbara, CA (United States). Applied Probability and Statistics Dept.

    2013-05-15

    The the Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region is one of the key seismic monitoring defence areas in the eastern part of China. Since 1846, M {>=} 6 strong earthquakes have showed an obvious commensurability and orderliness in this region. The main orderly values are 74 {proportional_to} 75 a, 57 {proportional_to} 58 a, 11 {proportional_to} 12 a, and 5 {proportional_to} 6 a, wherein 74 {proportional_to} 75 a and 57 {proportional_to} 58 a with an outstanding predictive role. According to the information prediction theory of Wen-Bo Weng, we conceived the M {>=} 6 strong earthquake ordered network structure in the South Yellow Sea and the whole region. Based on this, we analyzed and discussed the variation of seismicity in detail and also made a trend prediction of M {>=} 6 strong earthquakes in the future. The results showed that since 1998 it has entered into a new quiet episode which may continue until about 2042; and the first M {>=} 6 strong earthquake in the next active episode will probably occur in 2053 pre and post, with the location likely in the sea area of the South Yellow Sea; also, the second and the third ones or strong earthquake swarm in the future will probably occur in 2058 and 2070 pre and post. (orig.)

  6. Prediction of maximum earthquake intensities for the San Francisco Bay region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borcherdt, Roger D.; Gibbs, James F.

    1975-01-01

    The intensity data for the California earthquake of April 18, 1906, are strongly dependent on distance from the zone of surface faulting and the geological character of the ground. Considering only those sites (approximately one square city block in size) for which there is good evidence for the degree of ascribed intensity, the empirical relation derived between 1906 intensities and distance perpendicular to the fault for 917 sites underlain by rocks of the Franciscan Formation is: Intensity = 2.69 - 1.90 log (Distance) (km). For sites on other geologic units intensity increments, derived with respect to this empirical relation, correlate strongly with the Average Horizontal Spectral Amplifications (AHSA) determined from 99 three-component recordings of ground motion generated by nuclear explosions in Nevada. The resulting empirical relation is: Intensity Increment = 0.27 +2.70 log (AHSA), and average intensity increments for the various geologic units are -0.29 for granite, 0.19 for Franciscan Formation, 0.64 for the Great Valley Sequence, 0.82 for Santa Clara Formation, 1.34 for alluvium, 2.43 for bay mud. The maximum intensity map predicted from these empirical relations delineates areas in the San Francisco Bay region of potentially high intensity from future earthquakes on either the San Andreas fault or the Hazard fault.

  7. Prediction of maximum earthquake intensities for the San Francisco Bay region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Borcherdt, R.D.; Gibbs, J.F.

    1975-01-01

    The intensity data for the California earthquake of Apr 18, 1906, are strongly dependent on distance from the zone of surface faulting and the geological character of the ground. Considering only those sites (approximately one square city block in size) for which there is good evidence for the degree of ascribed intensity, the empirical relation derived between 1906 intensities and distance perpendicular to the fault for 917 sites underlain by rocks of the Franciscan formation is intensity = 2.69 - 1.90 log (distance) (km). For sites on other geologic units, intensity increments, derived with respect to this empirical relation, correlate strongly with the average horizontal spectral amplifications (AHSA) determined from 99 three-component recordings of ground motion generated by nuclear explosions in Nevada. The resulting empirical relation is intensity increment = 0.27 + 2.70 log (AHSA), and average intensity increments for the various geologic units are -0.29 for granite, 0.19 for Franciscan formation, 0.64 for the Great Valley sequence, 0.82 for Santa Clara formation, 1.34 for alluvium, and 2.43 for bay mud. The maximum intensity map predicted from these empirical relations delineates areas in the San Francisco Bay region of potentially high intensity from future earthquakes on either the San Andreas fault or the Hayward fault.

  8. Moment Magnitudes and Local Magnitudes for Small Earthquakes: Implications for Ground-Motion Prediction and b-values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baltay, A.; Hanks, T. C.; Vernon, F.

    2016-12-01

    We illustrate two essential consequences of the systematic difference between moment magnitude and local magnitude for small earthquakes, illuminating the underlying earthquake physics. Moment magnitude, M 2/3 log M0, is uniformly valid for all earthquake sizes [Hanks and Kanamori, 1979]. However, the relationship between local magnitude ML and moment is itself magnitude dependent. For moderate events, 3> fmax. Just as importantly, if this relation is overlooked, prediction of large-magnitude ground motion from small earthquakes will be misguided. We also consider the effect of this magnitude scale difference on b-value. The oft-cited b-value of 1 should hold for small magnitudes, given M. Use of ML necessitates b=2/3 for the same data set; use of mixed, or unknown, magnitudes complicates the matter further. This is of particular import when estimating the rate of large earthquakes when one has limited data on their recurrence, as is the case for induced earthquakes in the central US.

  9. A Trial for Earthquake Prediction by Precise Monitoring of Deep Ground Water Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasuhara, Y.; Otsuki, K.; Yamauchi, T.

    2006-12-01

    A near future large earthquake is estimated to occur off Miyagi prefecture, northeast Japan within 20 years at a probability of about 80 %. In order to predict this earthquake, we have observed groundwater temperature in a borehole at Sendai city 100 km west of the asperity. This borehole penetrates the fault zone of NE-trending active reverse fault, Nagamachi-Rifu fault zone, at 820m depth. Our concept of the ground water observation is that fault zones are natural amplifier of crustal strain, and hence at 820m depth we set a very precise quartz temperature sensor with the resolution of 0.0002 deg. C. We confirmed our observation system to work normally by both the pumping up tests and the systematic temperature changes at different depths. Since the observation started on June 20 in 2004, we found mysterious intermittent temperature fluctuations of two types; one is of a period of 5-10 days and an amplitude of ca. 0.1 deg. C, and the other is of a period of 11-21 days and an amplitude of ca. 0.2 deg. C. Based on the examination using the product of Grashof number and Prantl number, natural convection of water can be occurred in the borehole. However, since these temperature fluctuations are observed only at the depth around 820 m, thus it is likely that they represent the hydrological natures proper to the Nagamachi-Rifu fault zone. It is noteworthy that the small temperature changes correlatable with earth tide are superposed on the long term and large amplitude fluctuations. The amplitude on the days of the full moon and new moon is ca. 0.001 deg. C. The bottoms of these temperature fluctuations always delay about 6 hours relative to peaks of earth tide. This is interpreted as that water in the borehole is sucked into the fault zone on which tensional normal stress acts on the days of the full moon and new moon. The amplitude of the crustal strain by earth tide was measured at ca. 2∗10^-8 strain near our observation site. High frequency temperature noise of

  10. Irregularities in Early Seismic Rupture Propagation for Large Events in a Crustal Earthquake Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapusta, N.; Rice, J. R.; Rice, J. R.

    2001-12-01

    We study early seismic propagation of model earthquakes in a 2-D model of a vertical strike-slip fault with depth-variable rate and state friction properties. Our model earthquakes are obtained in fully dynamic simulations of sequences of instabilities on a fault subjected to realistically slow tectonic loading (Lapusta et al., JGR, 2000). This work is motivated by results of Ellsworth and Beroza (Science, 1995), who observe that for many earthquakes, far-field velocity seismograms during initial stages of dynamic rupture propagation have irregular fluctuations which constitute a "seismic nucleation phase". In our simulations, we find that such irregularities in velocity seismograms can be caused by two factors: (1) rupture propagation over regions of stress concentrations and (2) partial arrest of rupture in neighboring creeping regions. As rupture approaches a region of stress concentration, it sees increasing background stress and its moment acceleration (to which velocity seismographs in the far field are proportional) increases. After the peak in stress concentration, the rupture sees decreasing background stress and moment acceleration decreases. Hence a fluctuation in moment acceleration is created. If rupture starts sufficiently far from a creeping region, then partial arrest of rupture in the creeping region causes a decrease in moment acceleration. As the other parts of rupture continue to develop, moment acceleration then starts to grow again, and a fluctuation again results. Other factors may cause the irregularities in moment acceleration, e.g., phenomena such as branching and/or intermittent rupture propagation (Poliakov et al., submitted to JGR, 2001) which we have not studied here. Regions of stress concentration are created in our model by arrest of previous smaller events as well as by interactions with creeping regions. One such region is deep in the fault zone, and is caused by the temperature-induced transition from seismogenic to creeping

  11. Long-term effect of early-life stress from earthquake exposure on working memory in adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Na; Wang, Yumei; Zhao, Xiaochuan; Gao, Yuanyuan; Song, Mei; Yu, Lulu; Wang, Lan; Li, Ning; Chen, Qianqian; Li, Yunpeng; Cai, Jiajia; Wang, Xueyi

    2015-01-01

    The present study aimed to investigate the long-term effect of 1976 Tangshan earthquake exposure in early life on performance of working memory in adulthood. A total of 907 study subjects born and raised in Tangshan were enrolled in this study. They were divided into three groups according to the dates of birth: infant exposure (3-12 months, n=274), prenatal exposure (n=269), and no exposure (born at least 1 year after the earthquake, n=364). The prenatal group was further divided into first, second, and third trimester subgroups based on the timing of exposure during pregnancy. Hopkins Verbal Learning Test-Revised and Brief Visuospatial Memory Test-Revised (BVMT-R) were used to measure the performance of working memory. Unconditional logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the influential factors for impaired working memory. The Hopkins Verbal Learning Test-Revised scores did not show significant difference across the three groups. Compared with no exposure group, the BVMT-R scores were slightly lower in the prenatal exposure group and markedly decreased in the infant exposure group. When the BVMT-R scores were analyzed in three subgroups, the results showed that the subjects whose mothers were exposed to earthquake in the second and third trimesters of pregnancy had significantly lower BVMT-R scores compared with those in the first trimester. Education level and early-life earthquake exposure were identified as independent risk factors for reduced performance of visuospatial memory indicated by lower BVMT-R scores. Infant exposure to earthquake-related stress impairs visuospatial memory in adulthood. Fetuses in the middle and late stages of development are more vulnerable to stress-induced damage that consequently results in impaired visuospatial memory. Education and early-life trauma can also influence the performance of working memory in adulthood.

  12. The potential of continuous, local atomic clock measurements for earthquake prediction and volcanology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bondarescu Mihai

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Modern optical atomic clocks along with the optical fiber technology currently being developed can measure the geoid, which is the equipotential surface that extends the mean sea level on continents, to a precision that competes with existing technology. In this proceeding, we point out that atomic clocks have the potential to not only map the sea level surface on continents, but also look at variations of the geoid as a function of time with unprecedented timing resolution. The local time series of the geoid has a plethora of applications. These include potential improvement in the predictions of earthquakes and volcanoes, and closer monitoring of ground uplift in areas where hydraulic fracturing is performed.

  13. Earthquake Prediction Analysis Based on Empirical Seismic Rate: The M8 Algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molchan, G.; Romashkova, L.

    2010-07-01

    The quality of space-time earthquake prediction is usually characterized by a two-dimensional error diagram (n,τ), where n is the rate of failures-to-predict and τ is the normalized measure of space-time alarm. The most reasonable space measure for analysis of a prediction strategy is the rate of target events λ(dg) in a sub-area dg. In that case the quantity H = 1-(n +τ) determines the prediction capability of the strategy. The uncertainty of λ(dg) causes difficulties in estimating H and the statistical significance, α, of prediction results. We investigate this problem theoretically and show how the uncertainty of the measure can be taken into account in two situations, viz., the estimation of α and the construction of a confidence zone for the (n,τ)-parameters of the random strategies. We use our approach to analyse the results from prediction of M ≥ 8.0 events by the M8 method for the period 1985-2009 (the M8.0+ test). The model of λ(dg) based on the events Mw ≥ 5.5, 1977-2004, and the magnitude range of target events 8.0 ≤ M < 8.5 are considered as basic to this M8 analysis. We find the point and upper estimates of α and show that they are still unstable because the number of target events in the experiment is small. However, our results argue in favour of non-triviality of the M8 prediction algorithm. (author)

  14. Earthquake prediction analysis based on empirical seismic rate: the M8 algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molchan, G.; Romashkova, L.

    2010-12-01

    The quality of space-time earthquake prediction is usually characterized by a 2-D error diagram (n, τ), where n is the fraction of failures-to-predict and τ is the local rate of alarm averaged in space. The most reasonable averaging measure for analysis of a prediction strategy is the normalized rate of target events λ(dg) in a subarea dg. In that case the quantity H = 1 - (n + τ) determines the prediction capability of the strategy. The uncertainty of λ(dg) causes difficulties in estimating H and the statistical significance, α, of prediction results. We investigate this problem theoretically and show how the uncertainty of the measure can be taken into account in two situations, viz., the estimation of α and the construction of a confidence zone for the (n, τ)-parameters of the random strategies. We use our approach to analyse the results from prediction of M >= 8.0 events by the M8 method for the period 1985-2009 (the M8.0+ test). The model of λ(dg) based on the events Mw >= 5.5, 1977-2004, and the magnitude range of target events 8.0 <= M < 8.5 are considered as basic to this M8 analysis. We find the point and upper estimates of α and show that they are still unstable because the number of target events in the experiment is small. However, our results argue in favour of non-triviality of the M8 prediction algorithm.

  15. The USGS plan for short-term prediction of the anticipated Parkfield earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakun, W.H.

    1988-01-01

    Aside from the goal of better understanding the Parkfield earthquake cycle, it is the intention of the U.S Geological Survey to attempt to issue a warning shortly before the anticipated earthquake. Although short-term earthquake warnings are not yet generally feasible, the wealth of information available for the previous significant Parkfield earthquakes suggests that if the next earthquake follows the pattern of "characteristic" Parkfield shocks, such a warning might be possible. Focusing on earthquake precursors reported for the previous  "characteristic" shocks, particulary the 1934 and 1966 events, the USGS developed a plan* in late 1985 on which to base earthquake warnings for Parkfield and has assisted State, county, and local officials in the Parkfield area to prepare a coordinated, reasonable response to a warning, should one be issued. 

  16. A Feasibility Study for Earthquake Early Warning in a School in Southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emolo, A.; Martino, C.; Picozzi, M.; Zollo, A.; Elia, L.; Festa, G.; Colombelli, S.; Caruso, A.; Brondi, P.; Miranda, N.

    2015-12-01

    We present the results of a feasibility study on the application of earthquake early-warning procedures in the high school ITIS E. Majorana, Somma Vesuviana, Naples, located about 80 km far from the seismogenic Irpinia region. The study was performed in the framework of the European REAKT project. The school was equipped with an EEWS composed of: a small seismic network of accelerometers, the PRESToPlus software platform, and an actuator, named Sentinel. The Sentinel is made up of low-cost hardware (i.e., Arduino®) programmed to accomplish three main tasks: 1) listen and interpret messages delivered by the EEW system PRESToPlus on the ground motion severity expected at the target site; 2) provides different warnings as alert levels by the control of different hardware (i.e., alarm bells, emergency lights, and so on); 3) declare the end of the most threatening condition, which will assist the emergency coordinator starting the evacuation plan defined by the current legislation. The Sentinel was developed within REAKT in close collaboration with the students and the teachers of the school. The EEW system and the Sentinel were successfully tested during some blind drills performed during normal school activities.

  17. Real-Time Integration of Positioning and Accelerometer Data for Early Earthquake Warning on Canada's West Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biffard, B.; Rosenberger, A.; Pirenne, B.; Valenzuela, M.; MacArthur, M.

    2017-12-01

    Ocean Networks Canada (ONC) operates ocean and coastal observatories on all three of Canada's coasts, and more particularly across the Cascadia subduction zone. The data are acquired, parsed, calibrated and archived by ONC's data management system (Oceans 2.0), with real-time event detection, reaction and access capabilities. As such, ONC is in a unique position to develop early warning systems for earthquakes, near- and far-field tsunamis and other events. ONC is leading the development of a system to alert southwestern British Columbia of an impending Cascadia subduction zone earthquake on behalf of the provincial government and with the support of the Canadian Federal Government. Similarly to other early earthquake warning systems, an array of accelerometers is used to detect the initial earthquake p-waves. This can provide 5-60 seconds of warning to subscribers who can then take action, such as stopping trains and surgeries, closing valves, taking cover, etc. To maximize the detection capability and the time available to react to a notification, instruments are placed both underwater and on land on Vancouver Island. A novel feature of ONC's system is, for land-based sites, the combination of real-time satellite positioning (GNSS) and accelerometer data in the calculations to improve earthquake intensity estimates. This results in higher accuracy, dynamic range and responsiveness than either type of sensor is capable of alone. P-wave detections and displacement data are sent from remote stations to a data centre that must calculate epicentre locations and magnitude. The latter are then delivered to subscribers with client software that, given their position, will calculate arrival time and intensity. All of this must occur with very high standards for latency, reliability and accuracy.

  18. Appraising the Early-est earthquake monitoring system for tsunami alerting at the Italian Candidate Tsunami Service Provider

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernardi, F.; Lomax, A.; Michelini, A.; Lauciani, V.; Piatanesi, A.; Lorito, S.

    2015-09-01

    In this paper we present and discuss the performance of the procedure for earthquake location and characterization implemented in the Italian Candidate Tsunami Service Provider at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) in Rome. Following the ICG/NEAMTWS guidelines, the first tsunami warning messages are based only on seismic information, i.e., epicenter location, hypocenter depth, and magnitude, which are automatically computed by the software Early-est. Early-est is a package for rapid location and seismic/tsunamigenic characterization of earthquakes. The Early-est software package operates using offline-event or continuous-real-time seismic waveform data to perform trace processing and picking, and, at a regular report interval, phase association, event detection, hypocenter location, and event characterization. Early-est also provides mb, Mwp, and Mwpd magnitude estimations. mb magnitudes are preferred for events with Mwp ≲ 5.8, while Mwpd estimations are valid for events with Mwp ≳ 7.2. In this paper we present the earthquake parameters computed by Early-est between the beginning of March 2012 and the end of December 2014 on a global scale for events with magnitude M ≥ 5.5, and we also present the detection timeline. We compare the earthquake parameters automatically computed by Early-est with the same parameters listed in reference catalogs. Such reference catalogs are manually revised/verified by scientists. The goal of this work is to test the accuracy and reliability of the fully automatic locations provided by Early-est. In our analysis, the epicenter location, hypocenter depth and magnitude parameters do not differ significantly from the values in the reference catalogs. Both mb and Mwp magnitudes show differences to the reference catalogs. We thus derived correction functions in order to minimize the differences and correct biases between our values and the ones from the reference catalogs. Correction of the Mwp

  19. Prediction of Global and Localized Damage and Future Reliability for RC Structures subject to Earthquakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köyluoglu, H.U.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Cakmak, A.S.

    1997-01-01

    the arrival of the first earthquake from non-destructive vibration tests or via structural analysis. The previous excitation and displacement response time series is employed for the identification of the instantaneous softening using an ARMA model. The hysteresis parameters are updated after each earthquake....... The proposed model is next generalized for the MDOF system. Using the adapted models for the structure and the global damage state, the global damage in a future earthquake can then be estimated when a suitable earthquake model is applied. The performance of the model is illustrated on RC frames which were...

  20. Prediction of Global and Localized Damage and Future Reliability for RC Structures subject to Earthquakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köyluoglu, H.U.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Cakmak, A.S.

    1994-01-01

    the arrival of the first earthquake from non-destructive vibration tests or via structural analysis. The previous excitation and displacement response time series is employed for the identification of the instantaneous softening using an ARMA model. The hysteresis parameters are updated after each earthquake....... The proposed model is next generalized for the MDOF system. Using the adapted models for the structure and the global damage state, the global damage in a future earthquake can then be estimated when a suitable earthquake model is applied. The performance of the model is illustrated on RC frames which were...

  1. The analysis results of EEWS(Earthquake Early Warning System) about Iksan(Ml4.3) and Ulsan(Ml5.0) earthquakes in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, J. H.; Chi, H. C.; Lim, I. S.; Seong, Y. J.; Pak, J.

    2016-12-01

    EEW(Earthquake Early Warning) service to the public has been officially operated by KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) from 2015 in Korea. For the KMA's official EEW service, KIGAM has adopted ElarmS from UC Berkeley BSL and modified local magnitude relation, 1-D travel time curves and association procedures with real time waveforms from about 160 seismic stations of KMA and KIGAM. We have checked the performance of EEWS(Earthquake Early Warning System) reviewing two moderate size earthquakes: one is Iksan Eq.(Ml4.3) inside of networks and the other is Ulsan Eq.(Ml5.0) happened at the southern east sea of Korea outside of networks. The first trigger time at NPR station of the Iksan Eq. took 2.3 sec and BUY and JEO2 stations were associated to produce the first event version in 10.07 sec from the origin time respectively. Because the epicentral distance of JEO2 station is about 30 km and the estimated travel time is 6.2 sec, the delay time including transmission and processing is estimated as 3.87 sec with assumption that P wave velocity is 5 km/sec and the focal depth is 8 km. The first magnitude was M4.9 which was a little bigger than Ml4.3 by KIGAM. After adding 3 more triggers of stations (CHO, KMSA, PORA), the estimated magnitude became to M4.6 and the final was settled down to M4.3 with 10 stations. In the case of Ulsan the first trigger time took 11.04 sec and the first alert time with 3 stations in 14.8 sec from the origin time (OT) respectively. The first magnitude was M5.2, however, the difference between the first EEW epicenter and the manual final result was about 63 km due to the poor azimuth coverage outside of seismic network. After 16.2 sec from OT the fourth station YSB was used to update the location near to the manual results within 6 km with magnitude 5.0 and location and magnitude were stable with more stations. Ulsan Eq. was the first case announced to the public by EEWS and the process and result were successful, however, we have to

  2. Early executive function predicts reasoning development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richland, Lindsey E; Burchinal, Margaret R

    2013-01-01

    Analogical reasoning is a core cognitive skill that distinguishes humans from all other species and contributes to general fluid intelligence, creativity, and adaptive learning capacities. Yet its origins are not well understood. In the study reported here, we analyzed large-scale longitudinal data from the Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development to test predictors of growth in analogical-reasoning skill from third grade to adolescence. Our results suggest an integrative resolution to the theoretical debate regarding contributory factors arising from smaller-scale, cross-sectional experiments on analogy development. Children with greater executive-function skills (both composite and inhibitory control) and vocabulary knowledge in early elementary school displayed higher scores on a verbal analogies task at age 15 years, even after adjusting for key covariates. We posit that knowledge is a prerequisite to analogy performance, but strong executive-functioning resources during early childhood are related to long-term gains in fundamental reasoning skills.

  3. Predicted Liquefaction in the Greater Oakland and Northern Santa Clara Valley Areas for a Repeat of the 1868 Hayward Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holzer, T. L.; Noce, T. E.; Bennett, M. J.

    2008-12-01

    Probabilities of surface manifestations of liquefaction due to a repeat of the 1868 (M6.7-7.0) earthquake on the southern segment of the Hayward Fault were calculated for two areas along the margin of San Francisco Bay, California: greater Oakland and the northern Santa Clara Valley. Liquefaction is predicted to be more common in the greater Oakland area than in the northern Santa Clara Valley owing to the presence of 57 km2 of susceptible sandy artificial fill. Most of the fills were placed into San Francisco Bay during the first half of the 20th century to build military bases, port facilities, and shoreline communities like Alameda and Bay Farm Island. Probabilities of liquefaction in the area underlain by this sandy artificial fill range from 0.2 to ~0.5 for a M7.0 earthquake, and decrease to 0.1 to ~0.4 for a M6.7 earthquake. In the greater Oakland area, liquefaction probabilities generally are less than 0.05 for Holocene alluvial fan deposits, which underlie most of the remaining flat-lying urban area. In the northern Santa Clara Valley for a M7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault and an assumed water-table depth of 1.5 m (the historically shallowest water level), liquefaction probabilities range from 0.1 to 0.2 along Coyote and Guadalupe Creeks, but are less than 0.05 elsewhere. For a M6.7 earthquake, probabilities are greater than 0.1 along Coyote Creek but decrease along Guadalupe Creek to less than 0.1. Areas with high probabilities in the Santa Clara Valley are underlain by latest Holocene alluvial fan levee deposits where liquefaction and lateral spreading occurred during large earthquakes in 1868 and 1906. The liquefaction scenario maps were created with ArcGIS ModelBuilder. Peak ground accelerations first were computed with the new Boore and Atkinson NGA attenuation relation (2008, Earthquake Spectra, 24:1, p. 99-138), using VS30 to account for local site response. Spatial liquefaction probabilities were then estimated using the predicted ground motions

  4. Predictable Locations Aid Early Object Name Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benitez, Viridiana L.; Smith, Linda B.

    2012-01-01

    Expectancy-based localized attention has been shown to promote the formation and retrieval of multisensory memories in adults. Three experiments show that these processes also characterize attention and learning in 16- to 18-month old infants and, moreover, that these processes may play a critical role in supporting early object name learning. The…

  5. The East Aegean Sea strong earthquake sequence of October–November 2005: lessons learned for earthquake prediction from foreshocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. A. Papadopoulos

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The seismic sequence of October–November 2005 in the Samos area, East Aegean Sea, was studied with the aim to show how it is possible to establish criteria for (a the rapid recognition of both the ongoing foreshock activity and the mainshock, and (b the rapid discrimination between the foreshock and aftershock phases of activity. It has been shown that before the mainshock of 20 October 2005, foreshock activity is not recognizable in the standard earthquake catalogue. However, a detailed examination of the records in the SMG station, which is the closest to the activated area, revealed that hundreds of small shocks not listed in the standard catalogue were recorded in the time interval from 12 October 2005 up to 21 November 2005. The production of reliable relations between seismic signal duration and duration magnitude for earthquakes included in the standard catalogue, made it possible to use signal durations in SMG records and to determine duration magnitudes for 2054 small shocks not included in the standard catalogue. In this way a new catalogue with magnitude determination for 3027 events was obtained while the standard catalogue contains 1025 events. At least 55 of them occurred from 12 October 2005 up to the occurrence of the two strong foreshocks of 17 October 2005. This implies that foreshock activity developed a few days before the strong shocks of 17 October 2005 but it escaped recognition by the routine procedure of seismic analysis. The onset of the foreshock phase of activity is recognizable by the significant increase of the mean seismicity rate which increased exponentially with time. According to the least-squares approach the b-value of the magnitude-frequency relation dropped significantly during the foreshock activity with respect to the b-value prevailing in the declustered background seismicity. However, the maximum likelihood approach does not indicate such a drop of b. The b-value found for the aftershocks that

  6. Ground Motion Prediction for Great Interplate Earthquakes in Kanto Basin Considering Variation of Source Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sekiguchi, H.; Yoshimi, M.; Horikawa, H.

    2011-12-01

    Broadband ground motions are estimated in the Kanto sedimentary basin which holds Tokyo metropolitan area inside for anticipated great interplate earthquakes along surrounding plate boundaries. Possible scenarios of great earthquakes along Sagami trough are modeled combining characteristic properties of the source area and adequate variation in source parameters in order to evaluate possible ground motion variation due to next Kanto earthquake. South to the rupture area of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake along the Japan trench, we consider possible M8 earthquake. The ground motions are computed with a four-step hybrid technique. We first calculate low-frequency ground motions at the engineering basement. We then calculate higher-frequency ground motions at the same position, and combine the lower- and higher-frequency motions using a matched filter. We finally calculate ground motions at the surface by computing the response of the alluvium-diluvium layers to the combined motions at the engineering basement.

  7. The bayesian probabilistic prediction of the next earthquake in the ometepec segment of the mexican subduction zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferraes, Sergio G.

    1992-06-01

    A predictive equation to estimate the next interoccurrence time (τ) for the next earthquake ( M≥6) in the Ometepec segment is presented, based on Bayes' theorem and the Gaussian process. Bayes' theorem is used to relate the Gaussian process to both a log-normal distribution of recurrence times (τ) and a log-normal distribution of magnitudes ( M) ( Nishenko and Buland, 1987; Lomnitz, 1964). We constructed two new random variables X=In M and Y=In τ with normal marginal densities, and based on the Gaussian process model we assume that their joint density is normal. Using this information, we determine the Bayesian conditional probability. Finally, a predictive equation is derived, based on the criterion of maximization of the Bayesian conditional probability. The model forecasts the next interoccurrence time, conditional on the magnitude of the last event. Realistic estimates of future damaging earthquakes are based on relocated historical earthquakes. However, at the present time there is a controversy between Nishenko-Singh and Gonzalez-Ruiz-Mc-Nally concerning the rupturing process of the 1907 earthquake. We use our Bayesian analysis to examine and discuss this very important controversy. To clarify to the full significance of the analysis, we put forward the results using two catalogues: (1) The Ometepec catalogue without the 1907 earthquake (González-Ruíz-McNally), and (2) the Ometepec catalogue including the 1907 earthquake (Nishenko-Singh). The comparison of the prediction error reveals that in the Nishenko-Singh catalogue, the errors are considerably smaller than the average error for the González-Ruíz-McNally catalogue of relocated events. Finally, using the Nishenko-Singh catalogue which locates the 1907 event inside the Ometepec segment, we conclude that the next expected damaging earthquake ( M≥6.0) will occur approximately within the next time interval τ=11.82 years from the last event (which occurred on July 2, 1984), or equivalently will

  8. Earthquakes: hydrogeochemical precursors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingebritsen, Steven E.; Manga, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Earthquake prediction is a long-sought goal. Changes in groundwater chemistry before earthquakes in Iceland highlight a potential hydrogeochemical precursor, but such signals must be evaluated in the context of long-term, multiparametric data sets.

  9. Prediction of crime and early interventions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Mogens

    This paper presents a prospective longitudinal study that attempts to predict juvenile delinquency measured by first contact with the police (arrest, pre-trial detention or charges of crimes) taking a complete cohort of all children born in Denmark in 1984 (N=54,458). The children are followed from...

  10. Early adolescent symptoms of social phobia prospectively predict alcohol use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahne, Jennifer; Banducci, Anne N; Kurdziel, Gretchen; MacPherson, Laura

    2014-11-01

    The current study examined whether social phobia (SP) symptoms in early adolescence prospectively predicted alcohol use through middle adolescence in a community sample of youth. Data from an ongoing longitudinal study (N = 277) of mechanisms of HIV-related risk behaviors in youth were used to assess the extent to which SP symptoms in early adolescence (mean [SD] age = 11.00 years [0.81]) would predict alcohol use across five annual assessment waves. Adolescents completed measures of SP symptoms, depressive symptoms, and alcohol use at each wave. Higher SP symptoms at baseline predicted higher average odds of alcohol consumption during subsequent waves but did not significantly predict an increase in the odds of alcohol use as a function of time. Within a lagged model, SP symptoms measured at a prior assessment point (1 year earlier) predicted greater odds of drinking alcohol at the following assessment point. Importantly, alcohol use did not significantly predict SP symptoms over time. These results suggest that early SP symptoms are an important risk factor for increased odds of subsequent alcohol use. The present findings highlight that elevated SP symptoms place adolescents at risk for early alcohol use. Early interventions targeting SP symptoms may be crucial for the prevention of problematic alcohol use in early to mid-adolescence. Implications for prevention and treatment approaches are discussed.

  11. Early productive vocabulary predicts academic achievement 10 years later

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bleses, Dorthe; Makransky, Guido; Dale, Philip

    2016-01-01

    comprehension, can be predicted from an early vocabulary measure as early as 16 months with effect sizes (in proportion of variance accounted for) comparable to one year’s mean growth in reading scores. The findings confirm in a relatively large population based study that late talkers are at risk for later...

  12. Large early afterslip following the 1995/10/09 Mw 8 Jalisco, Mexico earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hjörleifsdóttir, Vala; Sánchez Reyes, Hugo Samuel; Ruiz-Angulo, Angel; Ramirez-Herrera, Maria Teresa; Castillo-Aja, Rosío; Krishna Singh, Shri; Ji, Chen

    2017-04-01

    The behaviour of slip close to the trench during earthquakes is not well understood, with some earthquakes breaking only the near trench area, most earthquakes breaking only the deeper part of the fault interface, whereas a few break both simultaneously. Observations of multiple earthquakes breaking different down dip segments of the same subduction segment are rare. The 1995 Mw 8 Jalisco earthquake, seems to have broken the near trench area, as evidenced by anomalously small accelerations for its size, the excitation of a tsunami, a small Ms relative to Mw and a small ratio between the radiated energy and moment (Pacheco et al 1997). However, slip models obtained using GPS campaign data, indicate slip near shore (Melbourne et al 1997, Hutton et al 2001). We invert tele seismic P- and S-waves, Rayleigh and Love waves, as well as the static offsets measured by campaign GPS models, to obtain the slip distribution on the fault as a function of time, during the earthquake. We confirm that the slip models obtained using only seismic data are most consistent with slip near the trench, whereas those obtained using only GPS data are consistent with slip closer to the coast. We find remarkable similarity with models of other researchers (Hutton et al 2001, Mendoza et al 1999) using the same datasets, even though the slip distributions from each dataset are almost complementary. To resolve this inconsistency we jointly invert the datasets. However, we find that the joint inversions do not produce adequate fits to both seismic and GPS data. Furthermore, we model tsunami observations on the coast, to constrain further the plausible slip models. Assuming that the discrepancy stems from slip that occurred within the time window between the campaign GPS measurements, but not during the earthquake, we model the residual displacements by very localised slip on the interface down dip from the coseismic slip. Aftershocks (Pacheco et al 1997) align on mostly between the non

  13. Ground water and earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ts' ai, T H

    1977-11-01

    Chinese folk wisdom has long seen a relationship between ground water and earthquakes. Before an earthquake there is often an unusual change in the ground water level and volume of flow. Changes in the amount of particulate matter in ground water as well as changes in color, bubbling, gas emission, and noises and geysers are also often observed before earthquakes. Analysis of these features can help predict earthquakes. Other factors unrelated to earthquakes can cause some of these changes, too. As a first step it is necessary to find sites which are sensitive to changes in ground stress to be used as sensor points for predicting earthquakes. The necessary features are described. Recording of seismic waves of earthquake aftershocks is also an important part of earthquake predictions.

  14. Parallelization of the Coupled Earthquake Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Block, Gary; Li, P. Peggy; Song, Yuhe T.

    2007-01-01

    This Web-based tsunami simulation system allows users to remotely run a model on JPL s supercomputers for a given undersea earthquake. At the time of this reporting, predicting tsunamis on the Internet has never happened before. This new code directly couples the earthquake model and the ocean model on parallel computers and improves simulation speed. Seismometers can only detect information from earthquakes; they cannot detect whether or not a tsunami may occur as a result of the earthquake. When earthquake-tsunami models are coupled with the improved computational speed of modern, high-performance computers and constrained by remotely sensed data, they are able to provide early warnings for those coastal regions at risk. The software is capable of testing NASA s satellite observations of tsunamis. It has been successfully tested for several historical tsunamis, has passed all alpha and beta testing, and is well documented for users.

  15. Guidelines for the early detection of osteoporosis and prediction of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective. To assess methods available in clinical practice for the early detection of osteoporosis and prediction of fracture risk, and to set guidelines for their use. To make recommendations regarding cost-effective screening of asymptomatic subjects by physicians. Options. Three methods to predict fracture risk are ...

  16. Feasibility study on earthquake early warning application to schools: the example of the ITIS 'E. Majorana', Somma Vesuviana, Naples (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emolo, Antonio; Zollo, Aldo; Picozzi, Matteo; Martino, Claudio; Elia, Luca; Verderame, Gerardo; De Risi, Maria Teresa; Ricci, Paolo; Lombardi, Anna; Bindi, Dino; Parolai, Stefano; Boxberger, Tobias; Miranda, Nicola

    2014-05-01

    One of the main objective of the WP7 (Strategic Applications and Capacity Building) in the framework of the REAKT-Strategies and tools for Real Time Earthquake RisK ReducTion FP7 European project, is to evaluate the effectiveness of EEW and real-time risk assessment procedures in reducing seismic risk to various industrial partners and end-users. In the context of the REAKT project, the AMRA-RISSCLab group is engaged in a feasibility study on the application of earthquake early-warning procedures in two high schools located in the Irpinia region (South Italy), an area that in the 1980 was struck by a magnitude 6.9 earthquake. In this work we report on the activities carried out during the last 24 Months at the school ITIS 'E. Majorana', located in Somma Vesuviana, a village in the neighbourhood of Naples. In order to perform a continuous seismic monitoring of the site, which includes a rather complex structure building, 5 accelerometric stations have been installed in different part of the school. In particular, a 24-bit ADC (Sigma/Delta) Agecodagis-Kefren data-logger has been installed with a Guralp CMG-5TC accelerometer with a 0.25g full-scale in the school courtyard, while 4 SOSEWIN sensors have been also installed at different locations within the building. Commercial ADSL lines provide transmission of real-time data to the EEW centre. Data streams are now acquired in real-time in the PRESToPlus (regional and on-site, threshold-based early-warning) software platform [1]. The recent December 29, 2013 M 5.1 Monti del Matese Earthquake, gave us the unique opportunity to use real strong motion data to test the performance of threshold-based early warning method at the school. The on-site method [2] aims to define alert levels at the monitored site. In particular, at each station the characteristic P-waves period (τc) and the peak displacement (Pd) are measured on the initial P-wave signal. They are compared with threshold values, previously established through an

  17. Intermediate-term medium-range earthquake prediction algorithm M8: A new spatially stabilized application in Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romashkova, L.L.; Kossobokov, V.G.; Peresan, A.; Panza, G.F.

    2001-12-01

    A series of experiments, based on the intermediate-term earthquake prediction algorithm M8, has been performed for the retrospective simulation of forward predictions in the Italian territory, with the aim to design an experimental routine for real-time predictions. These experiments evidenced two main difficulties for the application of M8 in Italy. The first one is due to the fact that regional catalogues are usually limited in space. The second one concerns certain arbitrariness and instability, with respect to the positioning of the circles of investigation. Here we design a new scheme for the application of the algorithm M8, which is less subjective and less sensitive to the position of the circles of investigation. To perform this test, we consider a recent revision of the Italian catalogue, named UCI2001, composed by CCI1996, NEIC and ALPOR data for the period 1900-1985, and updated with the NEIC reduces the spatial heterogeneity of the data at the boundaries of Italy. The new variant of the M8 algorithm application reduces the number of spurious alarms and increases the reliability of predictions. As a result, three out of four earthquakes with magnitude M max larger than 6.0 are predicted in the retrospective simulation of the forward prediction, during the period 1972-2001, with a space-time volume of alarms comparable to that obtained with the non-stabilized variant of the M8 algorithm in Italy. (author)

  18. Application of earthquake early warning system for disaster prevention in nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ionescu, C.; Dumitru, G.; Oprescu, T.; Ana, E.; Sofilca, N.; Grigore, D.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: The Romanian seismicity is dominated by the Vrancea deep (60-200 km) earthquakes which take place in a small volume located at the bend of Carpathian mountains, the place where three tectonic units are interacting: East-European, Intra-Alpine plates and Moesic sub-plate. Two or three events per century are devastating; having high energy they are felt over large and highly populated areas. The achievement of a seismic vulnerability reduction system for industrial and technological processes in the nuclear field intends to reduce possible after-earthquake damages which can take place in nuclear facilities situated in an extended area as compared to the usual one affected by Vrancea earthquakes. In this situation there are nuclear specific facilities like: - Van de Graaff Accelerator of IFIN-HH at Magurele; - TRIGA reactor operated at Pitesti, Mioveni, Jud. Arges; - Experimental Pilot Plant for tritium and deuterium separation of ICSI at Ramnicu Valcea; - Heavy water plant Drobeta Turnu Severin, Mehedinti. We intend to implement EEWS in the above sites in order to have a warning decision for earthquakes produced in Vrancea, Campulung Muscel and Herculane areas and its error-free transmission for activating the safety regulations for these facilities. (authors)

  19. On a report that the 2012 M 6.0 earthquake in Italy was predicted after seeing an unusual cloud formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, J.N.; Masci, F; Love, Jeffrey J.

    2015-01-01

    Several recently published reports have suggested that semi-stationary linear-cloud formations might be causally precursory to earthquakes. We examine the report of Guangmeng and Jie (2013), who claim to have predicted the 2012 M 6.0 earthquake in the Po Valley of northern Italy after seeing a satellite photograph (a digital image) showing a linear-cloud formation over the eastern Apennine Mountains of central Italy. From inspection of 4 years of satellite images we find numerous examples of linear-cloud formations over Italy. A simple test shows no obvious statistical relationship between the occurrence of these cloud formations and earthquakes that occurred in and around Italy. All of the linear-cloud formations we have identified in satellite images, including that which Guangmeng and Jie (2013) claim to have used to predict the 2012 earthquake, appear to be orographic – formed by the interaction of moisture-laden wind flowing over mountains. Guangmeng and Jie (2013) have not clearly stated how linear-cloud formations can be used to predict the size, location, and time of an earthquake, and they have not published an account of all of their predictions (including any unsuccessful predictions). We are skeptical of the validity of the claim by Guangmeng and Jie (2013) that they have managed to predict any earthquakes.

  20. Predicting creep rupture from early strain data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmstroem, Stefan; Auerkari, Pertti

    2009-01-01

    To extend creep life modelling from classical rupture modelling, a robust and effective parametric strain model has been developed. The model can reproduce with good accuracy all parts of the creep curve, economically utilising the available rupture models. The resulting combined model can also be used to predict rupture from the available strain data, and to further improve the rupture models. The methodology can utilise unfailed specimen data for life assessment at lower stress levels than what is possible from rupture data alone. Master curves for creep strain and rupture have been produced for oxygen-free phosphorus-doped (OFP) copper with a maximum testing time of 51,000 h. Values of time to specific strain at given stress (40-165 MPa) and temperature (125-350 deg. C) were fitted to the models in the strain range of 0.1-38%. With typical inhomogeneous multi-batch creep data, the combined strain and rupture modelling involves the steps of investigation of the data quality, extraction of elastic and creep strain response, rupture modelling, data set balancing and creep strain modelling. Finally, the master curves for strain and rupture are tested and validated for overall fitting efficiency. With the Wilshire equation as the basis for the rupture model, the strain model applies classical parametric principles with an Arrhenius type of thermal activation and a power law type of stress dependence for the strain rate. The strain model also assumes that the processes of primary and secondary creep can be reasonably correlated. The rupture model represents a clear improvement over previous models in the range of the test data. The creep strain information from interrupted and running tests were assessed together with the rupture data investigating the possibility of rupture model improvement towards lower stress levels by inverse utilisation of the combined rupture based strain model. The developed creep strain model together with the improved rupture model is

  1. Design and Optimization of a Telemetric system for appliance in earthquake prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogdos, G.; Tassoulas, E.; Vereses, A.; Papapanagiotou, A.; Filippi, K.; Koulouras, G.; Nomicos, C.

    2009-04-01

    This project's aim is to design a telemetric system which will be able to collect data from a digitizer, transform it into appropriate form and transfer this data to a central system where an on-line data elaboration will take place. On-line mathematical elaboration (fractal analysis) of pre-seismic electromagnetic signals and instant display may lead to safe earthquake prediction methodologies. Ad-hoc connections and heterogeneous topologies are the core network, while wired and wireless means cooperate for an accurate and on-time transmission. The nature of data is considered very sensitive so the transmission needs to be instant. All stations are situated in rural places in order to prevent electromagnetic interferences; this imposes continuous monitoring and provision of backup data links. The central stations collect the data of every station and allocate them properly in a predefined database. Special software is designed to elaborate mathematically the incoming data and export it graphically. The developing part included digitizer design, workstation software design, transmission protocol study and simulation on OPNET, database programming, mathematical data elaborations and software development for graphical representation. All the package was tested under lab conditions and tested in real conditions. The main aspect that this project serves is the very big interest for the scientific community in case this platform will eventually be implemented and then installed in Greek countryside in large scale. The platform is designed in such a way that techniques of data mining and mathematical elaboration are possible and any extension can be adapted. The main specialization of this project is that these mechanisms and mathematical transformations can be applied on live data. This can help to rapid exploitation of the real meaning of the measured and stored data. The elaboration of this study has as primary intention to help and alleviate the analysis process

  2. Research to Operations: From Point Positions, Earthquake and Tsunami Modeling to GNSS-augmented Tsunami Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stough, T.; Green, D. S.

    2017-12-01

    This collaborative research to operations demonstration brings together the data and algorithms from NASA research, technology, and applications-funded projects to deliver relevant data streams, algorithms, predictive models, and visualization tools to the NOAA National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC) and Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC). Using real-time GNSS data and models in an operational environment, we will test and evaluate an augmented capability for tsunami early warning. Each of three research groups collect data from a selected network of real-time GNSS stations, exchange data consisting of independently processed 1 Hz station displacements, and merge the output into a single, more accurate and reliable set. The resulting merged data stream is delivered from three redundant locations to the TWCs with a latency of 5-10 seconds. Data from a number of seismogeodetic stations with collocated GPS and accelerometer instruments are processed for displacements and seismic velocities and also delivered. Algorithms for locating and determining the magnitude of earthquakes as well as algorithms that compute the source function of a potential tsunami using this new data stream are included in the demonstration. The delivered data, algorithms, models and tools are hosted on NOAA-operated machines at both warning centers, and, once tested, the results will be evaluated for utility in improving the speed and accuracy of tsunami warnings. This collaboration has the potential to dramatically improve the speed and accuracy of the TWCs local tsunami information over the current seismometer-only based methods. In our first year of this work, we have established and deployed an architecture for data movement and algorithm installation at the TWC's. We are addressing data quality issues and porting algorithms into the TWCs operating environment. Our initial module deliveries will focus on estimating moment magnitude (Mw) from Peak Ground Displacement (PGD), within 2

  3. Debris-flows scale predictions based on basin spatial parameters calculated from Remote Sensing images in Wenchuan earthquake area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Huaizhen; Chi, Tianhe; Liu, Tianyue; Wang, Wei; Yang, Lina; Zhao, Yuan; Shao, Jing; Yao, Xiaojing; Fan, Jianrong

    2014-01-01

    Debris flow is a common hazard in the Wenchuan earthquake area. Collapse and Landslide Regions (CLR), caused by earthquakes, could be located from Remote Sensing images. CLR are the direct material source regions for debris flow. The Spatial Distribution of Collapse and Landslide Regions (SDCLR) strongly impact debris-flow formation. In order to depict SDCLR, we referred to Strahler's Hypsometric analysis method and developed 3 functional models to depict SDCLR quantitatively. These models mainly depict SDCLR relative to altitude, basin mouth and main gullies of debris flow. We used the integral of functions as the spatial parameters of SDCLR and these parameters were employed during the process of debris-flows scale predictions. Grouping-occurring debris-flows triggered by the rainstorm, which occurred on September 24th 2008 in Beichuan County, Sichuan province China, were selected to build the empirical equations for debris-flows scale predictions. Given the existing data, only debris-flows runout zone parameters (Max. runout distance L and Lateral width B) were estimated in this paper. The results indicate that the predicted results were more accurate when the spatial parameters were used. Accordingly, we suggest spatial parameters of SDCLR should be considered in the process of debris-flows scale prediction and proposed several strategies to prevent debris flow in the future

  4. Earthquake forecasting and warning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rikitake, T.

    1983-01-01

    This review briefly describes two other books on the same subject either written or partially written by Rikitake. In this book, the status of earthquake prediction efforts in Japan, China, the Soviet Union, and the United States are updated. An overview of some of the organizational, legal, and societal aspects of earthquake prediction in these countries is presented, and scientific findings of precursory phenomena are included. A summary of circumstances surrounding the 1975 Haicheng earthquake, the 1978 Tangshan earthquake, and the 1976 Songpan-Pingwu earthquake (all magnitudes = 7.0) in China and the 1978 Izu-Oshima earthquake in Japan is presented. This book fails to comprehensively summarize recent advances in earthquake prediction research.

  5. Building a Communication, Education, an Outreach Program for the ShakeAlert National Earthquake Early Warning Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeGroot, R. M.; Strauss, J. A.; Given, D. D.; Cochran, E. S.; Burkett, E. R.; Long, K.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems can provide as much as tens of seconds of warning to people and automated systems before strong shaking arrives. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners are developing an EEW system for the West Coast of the United States. To be an integral part of successful implementation, EEW engagement programs and materials must integrate with and leverage broader earthquake risk programs. New methods and products for dissemination must be multidisciplinary, cost effective, and consistent with existing hazards education efforts. Our presentation outlines how the USGS and its partners will approach this effort in the context of the EEW system through the work of a multistate and multiagency committee that participates in the design, implementation, and evaluation of a portfolio of programs and products. This committee, referred to as the ShakeAlert Joint Committee for Communication, Education, and Outreach (ShakeAlert CEO), is working to identify, develop, and cultivate partnerships with EEW stakeholders including Federal, State, academic partners, private companies, policy makers, and local organizations. Efforts include developing materials, methods for delivery, and reaching stakeholders with information on EEW, earthquake preparedness, and emergency protective actions. It is essential to develop standards to ensure information communicated via the EEW alerts is consistent across the public and private sector and achieving a common understanding of what actions users take when they receive an EEW warning. The USGS and the participating states and agencies acknowledge that the implementation of EEW is a collective effort requiring the participation of hundreds of stakeholders committed to ensuring public accessibility.

  6. Coherent Seismic Arrivals in the P Wave Coda of the 2012 Mw 7.2 Sumatra Earthquake: Water Reverberations or an Early Aftershock?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Wenyuan; Shearer, Peter M.

    2018-04-01

    Teleseismic records of the 2012 Mw 7.2 Sumatra earthquake contain prominent phases in the P wave train, arriving about 50 to 100 s after the direct P arrival. Azimuthal variations in these arrivals, together with back-projection analysis, led Fan and Shearer (https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL067785) to conclude that they originated from early aftershock(s), located ˜150 km northeast of the mainshock and landward of the trench. However, recently, Yue et al. (https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073254) argued that the anomalous arrivals are more likely water reverberations from the mainshock, based mostly on empirical Green's function analysis of a M6 earthquake near the mainshock and a water phase synthetic test. Here we present detailed back-projection and waveform analyses of three M6 earthquakes within 100 km of the Mw 7.2 earthquake, including the empirical Green's function event analyzed in Yue et al. (https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073254). In addition, we examine the waveforms of three M5.5 reverse-faulting earthquakes close to the inferred early aftershock location in Fan and Shearer (https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL067785). These results suggest that the reverberatory character of the anomalous arrivals in the mainshock coda is consistent with water reverberations, but the origin of this energy is more likely an early aftershock rather than delayed and displaced water reverberations from the mainshock.

  7. Earthquake Early Warning: Real-time Testing of an On-site Method Using Waveform Data from the Southern California Seismic Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solanki, K.; Hauksson, E.; Kanamori, H.; Wu, Y.; Heaton, T.; Boese, M.

    2007-12-01

    We have implemented an on-site early warning algorithm using the infrastructure of the Caltech/USGS Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN). We are evaluating the real-time performance of the software system and the algorithm for rapid assessment of earthquakes. In addition, we are interested in understanding what parts of the SCSN need to be improved to make early warning practical. Our EEW processing system is composed of many independent programs that process waveforms in real-time. The codes were generated by using a software framework. The Pd (maximum displacement amplitude of P wave during the first 3sec) and Tau-c (a period parameter during the first 3 sec) values determined during the EEW processing are being forwarded to the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) web page for independent evaluation of the results. The on-site algorithm measures the amplitude of the P-wave (Pd) and the frequency content of the P-wave during the first three seconds (Tau-c). The Pd and the Tau-c values make it possible to discriminate between a variety of events such as large distant events, nearby small events, and potentially damaging nearby events. The Pd can be used to infer the expected maximum ground shaking. The method relies on data from a single station although it will become more reliable if readings from several stations are associated. To eliminate false triggers from stations with high background noise level, we have created per station Pd threshold configuration for the Pd/Tau-c algorithm. To determine appropriate values for the Pd threshold we calculate Pd thresholds for stations based on the information from the EEW logs. We have operated our EEW test system for about a year and recorded numerous earthquakes in the magnitude range from M3 to M5. Two recent examples are a M4.5 earthquake near Chatsworth and a M4.7 earthquake near Elsinore. In both cases, the Pd and Tau-c parameters were determined successfully within 10 to 20 sec of the arrival of the

  8. AN EFFECTIVE HYBRID SUPPORT VECTOR REGRESSION WITH CHAOS-EMBEDDED BIOGEOGRAPHY-BASED OPTIMIZATION STRATEGY FOR PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKE-TRIGGERED SLOPE DEFORMATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Heidari

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Earthquake can pose earth-shattering health hazards to the natural slops and land infrastructures. One of the chief consequences of the earthquakes can be land sliding, which is instigated by durable shaking. In this research, an efficient procedure is proposed to assist the prediction of earthquake-originated slope displacements (EIDS. New hybrid SVM-CBBO strategy is implemented to predict the EIDS. For this purpose, first, chaos paradigm is combined with initialization of BBO to enhance the diversification and intensification capacity of the conventional BBO optimizer. Then, chaotic BBO is developed as the searching scheme to investigate the best values of SVR parameters. In this paper, it will be confirmed that how the new computing approach is effective in prediction of EIDS. The outcomes affirm that the SVR-BBO strategy with chaos can be employed effectively as a predicting tool for evaluating the EIDS.

  9. Unusual Animal Behavior Preceding the 2011 Earthquake off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku, Japan: A Way to Predict the Approach of Large Earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroyuki Yamauchi

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Unusual animal behaviors (UABs have been observed before large earthquakes (EQs, however, their mechanisms are unclear. While information on UABs has been gathered after many EQs, few studies have focused on the ratio of emerged UABs or specific behaviors prior to EQs. On 11 March 2011, an EQ (Mw 9.0 occurred in Japan, which took about twenty thousand lives together with missing and killed persons. We surveyed UABs of pets preceding this EQ using a questionnaire. Additionally, we explored whether dairy cow milk yields varied before this EQ in particular locations. In the results, 236 of 1,259 dog owners and 115 of 703 cat owners observed UABs in their pets, with restless behavior being the most prominent change in both species. Most UABs occurred within one day of the EQ. The UABs showed a precursory relationship with epicentral distance. Interestingly, cow milk yields in a milking facility within 340 km of the epicenter decreased significantly about one week before the EQ. However, cows in facilities farther away showed no significant decreases. Since both the pets’ behavior and the dairy cows’ milk yields were affected prior to the EQ, with careful observation they could contribute to EQ predictions.

  10. Implications of next generation attenuation ground motion prediction equations for site coefficients used in earthquake resistant design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borcherdt, Roger D.

    2014-01-01

    Proposals are developed to update Tables 11.4-1 and 11.4-2 of Minimum Design Loads for Buildings and Other Structures published as American Society of Civil Engineers Structural Engineering Institute standard 7-10 (ASCE/SEI 7–10). The updates are mean next generation attenuation (NGA) site coefficients inferred directly from the four NGA ground motion prediction equations used to derive the maximum considered earthquake response maps adopted in ASCE/SEI 7–10. Proposals include the recommendation to use straight-line interpolation to infer site coefficients at intermediate values of (average shear velocity to 30-m depth). The NGA coefficients are shown to agree well with adopted site coefficients at low levels of input motion (0.1 g) and those observed from the Loma Prieta earthquake. For higher levels of input motion, the majority of the adopted values are within the 95% epistemic-uncertainty limits implied by the NGA estimates with the exceptions being the mid-period site coefficient, Fv, for site class D and the short-period coefficient, Fa, for site class C, both of which are slightly less than the corresponding 95% limit. The NGA data base shows that the median value  of 913 m/s for site class B is more typical than 760 m/s as a value to characterize firm to hard rock sites as the uniform ground condition for future maximum considered earthquake response ground motion estimates. Future updates of NGA ground motion prediction equations can be incorporated easily into future adjustments of adopted site coefficients using procedures presented herein. 

  11. Ionospheric detection of tsunami earthquakes: observation, modeling and ideas for future early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Occhipinti, G.; Manta, F.; Rolland, L.; Watada, S.; Makela, J. J.; Hill, E.; Astafieva, E.; Lognonne, P. H.

    2017-12-01

    Detection of ionospheric anomalies following the Sumatra and Tohoku earthquakes (e.g., Occhipinti 2015) demonstrated that ionosphere is sensitive to earthquake and tsunami propagation: ground and oceanic vertical displacement induces acoustic-gravity waves propagating within the neutral atmosphere and detectable in the ionosphere. Observations supported by modelling proved that ionospheric anomalies related to tsunamis are deterministic and reproducible by numerical modeling via the ocean/neutral-atmosphere/ionosphere coupling mechanism (Occhipinti et al., 2008). To prove that the tsunami signature in the ionosphere is routinely detected we show here perturbations of total electron content (TEC) measured by GPS and following tsunamigenic earthquakes from 2004 to 2011 (Rolland et al. 2010, Occhipinti et al., 2013), nominally, Sumatra (26 December, 2004 and 12 September, 2007), Chile (14 November, 2007), Samoa (29 September, 2009) and the recent Tohoku-Oki (11 Mars, 2011). Based on the observations close to the epicenter, mainly performed by GPS networks located in Sumatra, Chile and Japan, we highlight the TEC perturbation observed within the first 8 min after the seismic rupture. This perturbation contains information about the ground displacement, as well as the consequent sea surface displacement resulting in the tsunami. In addition to GNSS-TEC observations close to the epicenter, new exciting measurements in the far-field were performed by airglow measurement in Hawaii show the propagation of the internal gravity waves induced by the Tohoku tsunami (Occhipinti et al., 2011). This revolutionary imaging technique is today supported by two new observations of moderate tsunamis: Queen Charlotte (M: 7.7, 27 October, 2013) and Chile (M: 8.2, 16 September 2015). We finally detail here our recent work (Manta et al., 2017) on the case of tsunami alert failure following the Mw7.8 Mentawai event (25 October, 2010), and its twin tsunami alert response following the Mw7

  12. Early reported rectal sensation predicts continence in anorectal anomalies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skerritt, Clare; Tyraskis, Athanasios; Rees, Clare; Cockar, Iram; Kiely, Edward

    2016-03-01

    Straining at stool is an automatic reflex in babies and implies the presence of rectal sensation. We hypothesised that early reported rectal sensation would predict future continence in children with anorectal anomalies. The aim of this study is to determine if early straining at stool was a useful predictor of future continence in infants born with high anorectal malformations. A retrospective case note review of prospectively collected clinical information was performed with institutional review board approval. All patients with intermediate/high anorectal malformation operated on by a single surgeon from 1984 to 2010 were included. After stoma closure, parents were asked: The responses were noted within the first year of stoma closure and then all patients were followed up until they were at least 3 ½years old and continence could be assessed using the Krickenbeck outcome classification. Data were compared using Fisher's exact test and sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value (PPV) were calculated. Forty-eight patients were included in the study. Sixteen (33%) were female (12 cloacal malformation, 3 rectovaginal fistula, 1 rectal atresia) and 32 (66%) were male (6 rectovesical fistulae, 22 rectourethral fistulae, 4 no fistula). Median follow-up was 9.7years (range 3.5-17.9). Twenty-one children were noted by their parents to exhibit early straining at stool after stoma closure. Twenty of them achieved long term continence. The sensitivity of early straining as a predictor for long term continence was 77%, specificity 95% and positive predictive value 95%. The presence of early rectal sensation reported by parents is a good predictor of long term continence. This allows more informed discussion with families in the early years of life. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Predicting Early Maladaptive Schemas Using Baumrind?s Parenting Styles

    OpenAIRE

    Esmali Kooraneh, Ahmad; Amirsardari, Leili

    2015-01-01

    Background: Families play an essential role in maintaining children?s mental, social, and physical health. The family provides the first and the most important social context for human development. Objectives: The present study aimed to predict early maladaptive schemas using Baumrind?s parenting styles (root development). Patients and Methods: A total of 357 undergraduate students of Islamic Azad University, Urmia Branch, Iran, were selected through random cluster sampling during 2013 and 20...

  14. Early social networks predict survival in wild bottlenose dolphins.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret A Stanton

    Full Text Available A fundamental question concerning group-living species is what factors influence the evolution of sociality. Although several studies link adult social bonds to fitness, social patterns and relationships are often formed early in life and are also likely to have fitness consequences, particularly in species with lengthy developmental periods, extensive social learning, and early social bond-formation. In a longitudinal study of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops sp., calf social network structure, specifically the metric eigenvector centrality, predicted juvenile survival in males. Additionally, male calves that died post-weaning had stronger ties to juvenile males than surviving male calves, suggesting that juvenile males impose fitness costs on their younger counterparts. Our study indicates that selection is acting on social traits early in life and highlights the need to examine the costs and benefits of social bonds during formative life history stages.

  15. Methods for early prediction of lactation flow in Holstein heifers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vesna Gantner

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research was to define methods for early prediction (based on I. milk control record of lactation flow in Holstein heifers as well as to choose optimal one in terms of prediction fit and application simplicity. Total of 304,569 daily yield records automatically recorded on a 1,136 first lactation Holstein cows, from March 2003 till August 2008., were included in analysis. According to the test date, calving date, the age at first calving, lactation stage when I. milk control occurred and to the average milk yield in first 25th, T1 (and 25th-45th, T2 lactation days, measuring monthcalving month-age-production-time-period subgroups were formed. The parameters of analysed nonlinear and linear methods were estimated for each defined subgroup. As models evaluation measures,adjusted coefficient of determination, and average and standard deviation of error were used. Considering obtained results, in terms of total variance explanation (R2 adj, the nonlinear Wood’s method showed superiority above the linear ones (Wilmink’s, Ali-Schaeffer’s and Guo-Swalve’s method in both time-period subgroups (T1 - 97.5 % of explained variability; T2 - 98.1 % of explained variability. Regarding the evaluation measures based on prediction error amount (eavg±eSD, the lowest average error of daily milk yield prediction (less than 0.005 kg/day, as well as of lactation milk yield prediction (less than 50 kg/lactation (T1 time-period subgroup and less than 30 kg/lactation (T2 time-period subgroup; were determined when Wood’s nonlinear prediction method were applied. Obtained results indicate that estimated Wood’s regression parameters could be used in routine work for early prediction of Holstein heifer’s lactation flow.

  16. Evaluation of Real-Time Performance of the Virtual Seismologist Earthquake Early Warning Algorithm in Switzerland and California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behr, Y.; Cua, G. B.; Clinton, J. F.; Heaton, T. H.

    2012-12-01

    The Virtual Seismologist (VS) method is a Bayesian approach to regional network-based earthquake early warning (EEW) originally formulated by Cua and Heaton (2007). Implementation of VS into real-time EEW codes has been an on-going effort of the Swiss Seismological Service at ETH Zürich since 2006, with support from ETH Zürich, various European projects, and the United States Geological Survey (USGS). VS is one of three EEW algorithms - the other two being ElarmS (Allen and Kanamori, 2003) and On-Site (Wu and Kanamori, 2005; Boese et al., 2008) algorithms - that form the basis of the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) ShakeAlert system, a USGS-funded prototype end-to-end EEW system that could potentially be implemented in California. In Europe, VS is currently operating as a real-time test system in Switzerland. As part of the on-going EU project REAKT (Strategies and Tools for Real-Time Earthquake Risk Reduction), VS will be installed and tested at other European networks. VS has been running in real-time on stations of the Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN) since July 2008, and on stations of the Berkeley Digital Seismic Network (BDSN) and the USGS Menlo Park strong motion network in northern California since February 2009. In Switzerland, VS has been running in real-time on stations monitored by the Swiss Seismological Service (including stations from Austria, France, Germany, and Italy) since 2010. We present summaries of the real-time performance of VS in Switzerland and California over the past two and three years respectively. The empirical relationships used by VS to estimate magnitudes and ground motion, originally derived from southern California data, are demonstrated to perform well in northern California and Switzerland. Implementation in real-time and off-line testing in Europe will potentially be extended to southern Italy, western Greece, Istanbul, Romania, and Iceland. Integration of the VS algorithm into both the CISN Advanced

  17. Meal frequencies in early adolescence predict meal frequencies in late adolescence and early adulthood

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Trine Pagh; Holstein, Bjørn E; Flachs, Esben Meulengracht

    2013-01-01

    Health and risk behaviours tend to be maintained from adolescence into adulthood. There is little knowledge on whether meal frequencies in adolescence are maintained into adulthood. We investigated whether breakfast, lunch and evening meal frequencies in early adolescence predicted meal frequencies...

  18. Evaluation of Real-Time and Off-Line Performance of the Virtual Seismologist Earthquake Early Warning Algorithm in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behr, Yannik; Clinton, John; Cua, Georgia; Cauzzi, Carlo; Heimers, Stefan; Kästli, Philipp; Becker, Jan; Heaton, Thomas

    2013-04-01

    The Virtual Seismologist (VS) method is a Bayesian approach to regional network-based earthquake early warning (EEW) originally formulated by Cua and Heaton (2007). Implementation of VS into real-time EEW codes has been an on-going effort of the Swiss Seismological Service at ETH Zürich since 2006, with support from ETH Zürich, various European projects, and the United States Geological Survey (USGS). VS is one of three EEW algorithms that form the basis of the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) ShakeAlert system, a USGS-funded prototype end-to-end EEW system that could potentially be implemented in California. In Europe, VS is currently operating as a real-time test system in Switzerland. As part of the on-going EU project REAKT (Strategies and Tools for Real-Time Earthquake Risk Reduction), VS installations in southern Italy, western Greece, Istanbul, Romania, and Iceland are planned or underway. In Switzerland, VS has been running in real-time on stations monitored by the Swiss Seismological Service (including stations from Austria, France, Germany, and Italy) since 2010. While originally based on the Earthworm system it has recently been ported to the SeisComp3 system. Besides taking advantage of SeisComp3's picking and phase association capabilities it greatly simplifies the potential installation of VS at networks in particular those already running SeisComp3. We present the architecture of the new SeisComp3 based version and compare its results from off-line tests with the real-time performance of VS in Switzerland over the past two years. We further show that the empirical relationships used by VS to estimate magnitudes and ground motion, originally derived from southern California data, perform well in Switzerland.

  19. The Iquique earthquake sequence of April 2014: Bayesian modeling accounting for prediction uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duputel, Zacharie; Jiang, Junle; Jolivet, Romain; Simons, Mark; Rivera, Luis; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Riel, Bryan; Owen, Susan E; Moore, Angelyn W; Samsonov, Sergey V; Ortega Culaciati, Francisco; Minson, Sarah E.

    2016-01-01

    The subduction zone in northern Chile is a well-identified seismic gap that last ruptured in 1877. On 1 April 2014, this region was struck by a large earthquake following a two week long series of foreshocks. This study combines a wide range of observations, including geodetic, tsunami, and seismic data, to produce a reliable kinematic slip model of the Mw=8.1 main shock and a static slip model of the Mw=7.7 aftershock. We use a novel Bayesian modeling approach that accounts for uncertainty in the Green's functions, both static and dynamic, while avoiding nonphysical regularization. The results reveal a sharp slip zone, more compact than previously thought, located downdip of the foreshock sequence and updip of high-frequency sources inferred by back-projection analysis. Both the main shock and the Mw=7.7 aftershock did not rupture to the trench and left most of the seismic gap unbroken, leaving the possibility of a future large earthquake in the region.

  20. Early Psychosocial Stress Predicts Extra-Pair Copulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicole Koehler

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Cheating on a mate, known as an extra-pair copulation (EPC, is considered unacceptable by most individuals. Nonetheless many individuals engage in such risky behaviors. Because individuals with high, as opposed to low, levels of early psychosocial stress are more risk prone and more likely to engage in opportunistic matings, we predicted that individuals reporting EPCs, one of many types of opportunistic mating (e.g., one-night stand, consecutive short-term relationships etc, have higher levels of early psychosocial stress than those who do not. Two types of EPCs were examined: EPC-self (EPC-S, having sex with someone other than one's mate, and EPC-other (EPC-O, having sex with someone else's mate. In a sample of 229 women and 161 men, significantly higher levels of early psychosocial stress were found amongst those reporting an EPC-S than those reporting none, irrespective of EPC-Os. Furthermore, the more EPC-Ss men, but not women, reported the higher their early psychosocial stress. Early psychosocial stress was not associated with EPC-Os irrespective of EPC-Ss. Participants were also classified into one of four groups (no EPCs, EPC-O only, EPC-S only, or EPC-S&O which significantly interacted with early psychosocial stress. Results are discussed from adaptationist and mechanist perspectives and why early psychosocial stress was higher in individuals reporting EPC-Ss irrespective of EPC-Os, but not EPC-Os irrespective of EPC-Ss, than those not reporting the EPC of interest.

  1. Abnormal early cleavage events predict early embryo demise: sperm oxidative stress and early abnormal cleavage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burruel, Victoria; Klooster, Katie; Barker, Christopher M; Pera, Renee Reijo; Meyers, Stuart

    2014-10-13

    Human embryos resulting from abnormal early cleavage can result in aneuploidy and failure to develop normally to the blastocyst stage. The nature of paternal influence on early embryo development has not been directly demonstrated although many studies have suggested effects from spermatozoal chromatin packaging, DNA damage, centriolar and mitotic spindle integrity, and plasma membrane integrity. The goal of this study was to determine whether early developmental events were affected by oxidative damage to the fertilizing sperm. Survival analysis was used to compare patterns of blastocyst formation based on P2 duration. Kaplan-Meier survival curves demonstrate that relatively few embryos with short (P2 times reached blastocysts, and the two curves diverged beginning on day 4, with nearly all of the embryos with longer P2 times reaching blastocysts by day 6 (p < .01). We determined that duration of the 2nd to 3rd mitoses were sensitive periods in the presence of spermatozoal oxidative stress. Embryos that displayed either too long or too short cytokineses demonstrated an increased failure to reach blastocyst stage and therefore survive for further development. Although paternal-derived gene expression occurs later in development, this study suggests a specific role in early mitosis that is highly influenced by paternal factors.

  2. Large magnitude (M > 7.5) offshore earthquakes in 2012: few examples of absent or little tsunamigenesis, with implications for tsunami early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagnoni, Gianluca; Armigliato, Alberto; Tinti, Stefano

    2013-04-01

    We take into account some examples of offshore earthquakes occurred worldwide in year 2012 that were characterised by a "large" magnitude (Mw equal or larger than 7.5) but which produced no or little tsunami effects. Here, "little" is intended as "lower than expected on the basis of the parent earthquake magnitude". The examples we analyse include three earthquakes occurred along the Pacific coasts of Central America (20 March, Mw=7.8, Mexico; 5 September, Mw=7.6, Costa Rica; 7 November, Mw=7.5, Mexico), the Mw=7.6 and Mw=7.7 earthquakes occurred respectively on 31 August and 28 October offshore Philippines and offshore Alaska, and the two Indian Ocean earthquakes registered on a single day (11 April) and characterised by Mw=8.6 and Mw=8.2. For each event, we try to face the problem related to its tsunamigenic potential from two different perspectives. The first can be considered purely scientific and coincides with the question: why was the ensuing tsunami so weak? The answer can be related partly to the particular tectonic setting in the source area, partly to the particular position of the source with respect to the coastline, and finally to the focal mechanism of the earthquake and to the slip distribution on the ruptured fault. The first two pieces of information are available soon after the earthquake occurrence, while the third requires time periods in the order of tens of minutes. The second perspective is more "operational" and coincides with the tsunami early warning perspective, for which the question is: will the earthquake generate a significant tsunami and if so, where will it strike? The Indian Ocean events of 11 April 2012 are perfect examples of the fact that the information on the earthquake magnitude and position alone may not be sufficient to produce reliable tsunami warnings. We emphasise that it is of utmost importance that the focal mechanism determination is obtained in the future much more quickly than it is at present and that this

  3. Predicting Early Maladaptive Schemas Using Baumrind's Parenting Styles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esmali Kooraneh, Ahmad; Amirsardari, Leili

    2015-06-01

    Families play an essential role in maintaining children's mental, social, and physical health. The family provides the first and the most important social context for human development. The present study aimed to predict early maladaptive schemas using Baumrind's parenting styles (root development). A total of 357 undergraduate students of Islamic Azad University, Urmia Branch, Iran, were selected through random cluster sampling during 2013 and 2014. The students were assessed using the Schema Questionnaire-Short Form (SQ-SF) and the Baumrind's parenting styles inventories. The result of regression analysis showed that Baumrind's parenting styles are significant predictors of early maladaptive schemas (P parenting style has some features such as showing high levels of warmth or encouraging kids to express their own possibly divergent opinions. The authoritarian parenting style, however, possesses traits such as heartlessness, impassiveness, strictness, and lack of attention to the children's developmental needs, which is not acceptable.

  4. Multiple-Threshold Event Detection and Other Enhancements to the Virtual Seismologist (VS) Earthquake Early Warning Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, M.; Caprio, M.; Cua, G. B.; Heaton, T. H.; Clinton, J. F.; Wiemer, S.

    2009-12-01

    The Virtual Seismologist (VS) algorithm is a Bayesian approach to earthquake early warning (EEW) being implemented by the Swiss Seismological Service at ETH Zurich. The application of Bayes’ theorem in earthquake early warning states that the most probable source estimate at any given time is a combination of contributions from a likelihood function that evolves in response to incoming data from the on-going earthquake, and selected prior information, which can include factors such as network topology, the Gutenberg-Richter relationship or previously observed seismicity. The VS algorithm was one of three EEW algorithms involved in the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) real-time EEW testing and performance evaluation effort. Its compelling real-time performance in California over the last three years has led to its inclusion in the new USGS-funded effort to develop key components of CISN ShakeAlert, a prototype EEW system that could potentially be implemented in California. A significant portion of VS code development was supported by the SAFER EEW project in Europe. We discuss recent enhancements to the VS EEW algorithm. We developed and continue to test a multiple-threshold event detection scheme, which uses different association / location approaches depending on the peak amplitudes associated with an incoming P pick. With this scheme, an event with sufficiently high initial amplitudes can be declared on the basis of a single station, maximizing warning times for damaging events for which EEW is most relevant. Smaller, non-damaging events, which will have lower initial amplitudes, will require more picks to be declared an event to reduce false alarms. This transforms the VS codes from a regional EEW approach reliant on traditional location estimation (and it requirement of at least 4 picks as implemented by the Binder Earthworm phase associator) to a hybrid on-site/regional approach capable of providing a continuously evolving stream of EEW

  5. Contingency Table Browser - prediction of early stage protein structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalinowska, Barbara; Krzykalski, Artur; Roterman, Irena

    2015-01-01

    The Early Stage (ES) intermediate represents the starting structure in protein folding simulations based on the Fuzzy Oil Drop (FOD) model. The accuracy of FOD predictions is greatly dependent on the accuracy of the chosen intermediate. A suitable intermediate can be constructed using the sequence-structure relationship information contained in the so-called contingency table - this table expresses the likelihood of encountering various structural motifs for each tetrapeptide fragment in the amino acid sequence. The limited accuracy with which such structures could previously be predicted provided the motivation for a more indepth study of the contingency table itself. The Contingency Table Browser is a tool which can visualize, search and analyze the table. Our work presents possible applications of Contingency Table Browser, among them - analysis of specific protein sequences from the point of view of their structural ambiguity.

  6. Investigation on relationship between epicentral distance and growth curve of initial P-wave propagating in local heterogeneous media for earthquake early warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okamoto, Kyosuke; Tsuno, Seiji

    2015-10-01

    In the earthquake early warning (EEW) system, the epicenter location and magnitude of earthquakes are estimated using the amplitude growth rate of initial P-waves. It has been empirically pointed out that the growth rate becomes smaller as epicentral distance becomes far regardless of the magnitude of earthquakes. So, the epicentral distance can be estimated from the growth rate using this empirical relationship. However, the growth rates calculated from different earthquakes at the same epicentral distance mark considerably different values from each other. Sometimes the growth rates of earthquakes having the same epicentral distance vary by 104 times. Qualitatively, it has been considered that the gap in the growth rates is due to differences in the local heterogeneities that the P-waves propagate through. In this study, we demonstrate theoretically how local heterogeneities in the subsurface disturb the relationship between the growth rate and the epicentral distance. Firstly, we calculate seismic scattered waves in a heterogeneous medium. First-ordered PP, PS, SP, and SS scatterings are considered. The correlation distance of the heterogeneities and fractional fluctuation of elastic parameters control the heterogeneous conditions for the calculation. From the synthesized waves, the growth rate of the initial P-wave is obtained. As a result, we find that a parameter (in this study, correlation distance) controlling heterogeneities plays a key role in the magnitude of the fluctuation of the growth rate. Then, we calculate the regional correlation distances in Japan that can account for the fluctuation of the growth rate of real earthquakes from 1997 to 2011 observed by K-NET and KiK-net. As a result, the spatial distribution of the correlation distance shows locality. So, it is revealed that the growth rates fluctuate according to the locality. When this local fluctuation is taken into account, the accuracy of the estimation of epicentral distances from initial P

  7. Specific Dysphoric Symptoms Are Predicted by Early Maladaptive Schemas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberta Trincas

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Early maladaptive schemas (EMSs are cognitive patterns resulting from unmet core emotional needs in childhood that have been linked to the development of psychopathology. As depression is a multifaceted phenomenon, we hypothesized that specific dysphoric symptoms would be predicted by different EMSs. Four hundred and fifty-six participants completed a measure of EMSs (Young Schema Questionnaire and reported on the severity of the symptoms of criterion A for major depression in DSM-IV during the occurrence of a dysphoric episode in the previous 12 months. A series of stepwise multiple regression analyses were performed to investigate the predictive power of the EMSs for the severity of each specific depressive symptom. When controlling for gender and current levels of depression, specific symptoms were predicted by different EMSs: sadness by Negativity/Pessimism; anhedonia by Failure; self-harm by Emotional Deprivation and Vulnerability to Harm or Illness; worthlessness by Failure and Negativity/Pessimism; psychomotor retardation/restlessness by Vulnerability to Harm or Illness and Entitlement/Grandiosity; and poor concentration by Insufficient Self-Control/Self-Discipline. The more physical symptoms of fatigue, insomnia/hypersomnia, and appetite loss/appetite gain were not predicted by any of the EMSs. Although the cross-sectional design of the study does not allow for conclusions about the direction of effects, results suggest that depression is not a unitary phenomenon and provide a possible explanation for previous inconsistent findings.

  8. Magnitude Estimation for Large Earthquakes from Borehole Recordings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eshaghi, A.; Tiampo, K. F.; Ghofrani, H.; Atkinson, G.

    2012-12-01

    We present a simple and fast method for magnitude determination technique for earthquake and tsunami early warning systems based on strong ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) in Japan. This method incorporates borehole strong motion records provided by the Kiban Kyoshin network (KiK-net) stations. We analyzed strong ground motion data from large magnitude earthquakes (5.0 ≤ M ≤ 8.1) with focal depths < 50 km and epicentral distances of up to 400 km from 1996 to 2010. Using both peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) we derived GMPEs in Japan. These GMPEs are used as the basis for regional magnitude determination. Predicted magnitudes from PGA values (Mpga) and predicted magnitudes from PGV values (Mpgv) were defined. Mpga and Mpgv strongly correlate with the moment magnitude of the event, provided sufficient records for each event are available. The results show that Mpgv has a smaller standard deviation in comparison to Mpga when compared with the estimated magnitudes and provides a more accurate early assessment of earthquake magnitude. We test this new method to estimate the magnitude of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and we present the results of this estimation. PGA and PGV from borehole recordings allow us to estimate the magnitude of this event 156 s and 105 s after the earthquake onset, respectively. We demonstrate that the incorporation of borehole strong ground-motion records immediately available after the occurrence of large earthquakes significantly increases the accuracy of earthquake magnitude estimation and the associated improvement in earthquake and tsunami early warning systems performance. Moment magnitude versus predicted magnitude (Mpga and Mpgv).

  9. Predicting Readmission at Early Hospitalization Using Electronic Clinical Data: An Early Readmission Risk Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabak, Ying P; Sun, Xiaowu; Nunez, Carlos M; Gupta, Vikas; Johannes, Richard S

    2017-03-01

    Identifying patients at high risk for readmission early during hospitalization may aid efforts in reducing readmissions. We sought to develop an early readmission risk predictive model using automated clinical data available at hospital admission. We developed an early readmission risk model using a derivation cohort and validated the model with a validation cohort. We used a published Acute Laboratory Risk of Mortality Score as an aggregated measure of clinical severity at admission and the number of hospital discharges in the previous 90 days as a measure of disease progression. We then evaluated the administrative data-enhanced model by adding principal and secondary diagnoses and other variables. We examined the c-statistic change when additional variables were added to the model. There were 1,195,640 adult discharges from 70 hospitals with 39.8% male and the median age of 63 years (first and third quartile: 43, 78). The 30-day readmission rate was 11.9% (n=142,211). The early readmission model yielded a graded relationship of readmission and the Acute Laboratory Risk of Mortality Score and the number of previous discharges within 90 days. The model c-statistic was 0.697 with good calibration. When administrative variables were added to the model, the c-statistic increased to 0.722. Automated clinical data can generate a readmission risk score early at hospitalization with fair discrimination. It may have applied value to aid early care transition. Adding administrative data increases predictive accuracy. The administrative data-enhanced model may be used for hospital comparison and outcome research.

  10. Earthquakes and Earthquake Engineering. LC Science Tracer Bullet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buydos, John F., Comp.

    An earthquake is a shaking of the ground resulting from a disturbance in the earth's interior. Seismology is the (1) study of earthquakes; (2) origin, propagation, and energy of seismic phenomena; (3) prediction of these phenomena; and (4) investigation of the structure of the earth. Earthquake engineering or engineering seismology includes the…

  11. Continuous borehole strain and pore pressure in the near field of the 28 September 2004 M 6.0 parkfield, California, earthquake: Implications for nucleation, fault response, earthquake prediction and tremor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, M.J.S.; Borcherdt, R.D.; Linde, A.T.; Gladwin, M.T.

    2006-01-01

    Near-field observations of high-precision borehole strain and pore pressure, show no indication of coherent accelerating strain or pore pressure during the weeks to seconds before the 28 September 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield earthquake. Minor changes in strain rate did occur at a few sites during the last 24 hr before the earthquake but these changes are neither significant nor have the form expected for strain during slip coalescence initiating fault failure. Seconds before the event, strain is stable at the 10-11 level. Final prerupture nucleation slip in the hypocentral region is constrained to have a moment less than 2 ?? 1012 N m (M 2.2) and a source size less than 30 m. Ground displacement data indicate similar constraints. Localized rupture nucleation and runaway precludes useful prediction of damaging earthquakes. Coseismic dynamic strains of about 10 microstrain peak-to-peak were superimposed on volumetric strain offsets of about 0.5 microstrain to the northwest of the epicenter and about 0.2 microstrain to the southeast of the epicenter, consistent with right lateral slip. Observed strain and Global Positioning System (GPS) offsets can be simply fit with 20 cm of slip between 4 and 10 km on a 20-km segment of the fault north of Gold Hill (M0 = 7 ?? 1017 N m). Variable slip inversion models using GPS data and seismic data indicate similar moments. Observed postseismic strain is 60% to 300% of the coseismic strain, indicating incomplete release of accumulated strain. No measurable change in fault zone compliance preceding or following the earthquake is indicated by stable earth tidal response. No indications of strain change accompany nonvolcanic tremor events reported prior to and following the earthquake.

  12. We Need More Focus On Pre-Disaster Preparedness: Early Lessons Learned From Recent Earthquakes in Northwest of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdolreza Shaghaghi

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Dear Editor-in-ChiefTwo strong earthquakes with the magnitude of 6.4 and 6.3 at a depth of 9.9 km that rattled Iran’s northwest region within 60 km of Tabriz, the capital city of East Azerbaijan province on August 11, 2012 caused extensive damage in about 1000 villages, killed at least 258 and injured 1380 people. The quakes most severely affected villages close to three impacted towns in the disaster area; Varzegan, Ahar and Heris. Some of the villages were hit are in remote areas with limited access to transport routes.Within early hours aftermath of the twin devastating incidents ordinary people and those who had relatives in the affected area rushed towards the region to salvage victims mainly by their own cars. Independent groups such as small units from armed forces were also sent to the region to support rescue operation. Some of the survivors meanwhile, tried to transfer severely injured survivors to nearby hospitals and even to the central hospital in Tabriz using public transportation facilities e.g. taxis, vans or any vehicle available at the time. All these unplanned efforts created traffic jams on the roads leading to the disaster area and delayed rescue operation by trained staff.Now after the earthquakes that rumbled through the disaster area, about 36,000 quake-stricken people were given shelter and are being provided with their basic needs in makeshift camps. Humanitarian aids are reaching affected zone from all over the country and internationally but there are inadequacies in proper distribution of food stuff and equipments among the survivors. Piles of water bottles in front of tents which left in the heat under the sunshine, clothes and canned foods which were distributed by volunteers and are more than current needs of the victims are observable in the disaster area. This is while, lack of sufficient supply of drinking water, canned foods and portable washrooms were reported by the authorities in the first days after the

  13. Can mine tremors be predicted? Observational studies of earthquake nucleation, triggering and rupture in South African mines

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Durrheim, RJ

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Earthquakes, and the tsunamis and landslides they trigger, pose a serious risk to people living close to plate boundaries, and a lesser but still significant risk to inhabitants of stable continental regions where destructive earthquakes are rare... of experiments that seek to identify reliable precursors of damaging seismic events. 1. Introduction Earthquakes, and the tsunamis and landslides they trigger, pose a serious risk to people living close to plate boundaries, and a lesser but still significant...

  14. Development of predictive weather scenarios for early prediction of rice yield in South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Y.; Cho, J.; Jung, I.

    2017-12-01

    International grain prices are becoming unstable due to frequent occurrence of abnormal weather phenomena caused by climate change. Early prediction of grain yield using weather forecast data is important for stabilization of international grain prices. The APEC Climate Center (APCC) is providing seasonal forecast data based on monthly climate prediction models for global seasonal forecasting services. The 3-month and 6-month seasonal forecast data using the multi-model ensemble (MME) technique are provided in their own website, ADSS (APCC Data Service System, http://adss.apcc21.org/). The spatial resolution of seasonal forecast data for each individual model is 2.5°×2.5°(about 250km) and the time scale is created as monthly. In this study, we developed customized weather forecast scenarios that are combined seasonal forecast data and observational data apply to early rice yield prediction model. Statistical downscale method was applied to produce meteorological input data of crop model because field scale crop model (ORYZA2000) requires daily weather data. In order to determine whether the forecasting data is suitable for the crop model, we produced spatio-temporal downscaled weather scenarios and evaluated the predictability by comparison with observed weather data at 57 ASOS stations in South Korea. The customized weather forecast scenarios can be applied to various application fields not only early rice yield prediction. Acknowledgement This work was carried out with the support of "Cooperative Research Program for Agriculture Science and Technology Development (Project No: PJ012855022017)" Rural Development Administration, Republic of Korea.

  15. Simple Mathematical Models Do Not Accurately Predict Early SIV Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cecilia Noecker

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Upon infection of a new host, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV replicates in the mucosal tissues and is generally undetectable in circulation for 1–2 weeks post-infection. Several interventions against HIV including vaccines and antiretroviral prophylaxis target virus replication at this earliest stage of infection. Mathematical models have been used to understand how HIV spreads from mucosal tissues systemically and what impact vaccination and/or antiretroviral prophylaxis has on viral eradication. Because predictions of such models have been rarely compared to experimental data, it remains unclear which processes included in these models are critical for predicting early HIV dynamics. Here we modified the “standard” mathematical model of HIV infection to include two populations of infected cells: cells that are actively producing the virus and cells that are transitioning into virus production mode. We evaluated the effects of several poorly known parameters on infection outcomes in this model and compared model predictions to experimental data on infection of non-human primates with variable doses of simian immunodifficiency virus (SIV. First, we found that the mode of virus production by infected cells (budding vs. bursting has a minimal impact on the early virus dynamics for a wide range of model parameters, as long as the parameters are constrained to provide the observed rate of SIV load increase in the blood of infected animals. Interestingly and in contrast with previous results, we found that the bursting mode of virus production generally results in a higher probability of viral extinction than the budding mode of virus production. Second, this mathematical model was not able to accurately describe the change in experimentally determined probability of host infection with increasing viral doses. Third and finally, the model was also unable to accurately explain the decline in the time to virus detection with increasing viral

  16. Prediction (early recognition) of emerging flu strain clusters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, X.; Phillips, J. C.

    2017-08-01

    Early detection of incipient dominant influenza strains is one of the key steps in the design and manufacture of an effective annual influenza vaccine. Here we report the most current results for pandemic H3N2 flu vaccine design. A 2006 model of dimensional reduction (compaction) of viral mutational complexity derives two-dimensional Cartesian mutational maps (2DMM) that exhibit an emergent dominant strain as a small and distinct cluster of as few as 10 strains. We show that recent extensions of this model can detect incipient strains one year or more in advance of their dominance in the human population. Our structural interpretation of our unexpectedly rich 2DMM involves sialic acid, and is based on nearly 6000 strains in a series of recent 3-year time windows. Vaccine effectiveness is predicted best by analyzing dominant mutational epitopes.

  17. Early experiences building a software quality prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agresti, W. W.; Evanco, W. M.; Smith, M. C.

    1990-01-01

    Early experiences building a software quality prediction model are discussed. The overall research objective is to establish a capability to project a software system's quality from an analysis of its design. The technical approach is to build multivariate models for estimating reliability and maintainability. Data from 21 Ada subsystems were analyzed to test hypotheses about various design structures leading to failure-prone or unmaintainable systems. Current design variables highlight the interconnectivity and visibility of compilation units. Other model variables provide for the effects of reusability and software changes. Reported results are preliminary because additional project data is being obtained and new hypotheses are being developed and tested. Current multivariate regression models are encouraging, explaining 60 to 80 percent of the variation in error density of the subsystems.

  18. Lessons Learned about Best Practices for Communicating Earthquake Forecasting and Early Warning to Non-Scientific Publics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sellnow, D. D.; Sellnow, T. L.

    2017-12-01

    Earthquake scientists are without doubt experts in understanding earthquake probabilities, magnitudes, and intensities, as well as the potential consequences of them to community infrastructures and inhabitants. One critical challenge these scientific experts face, however, rests with communicating what they know to the people they want to help. Helping scientists translate scientific information to non-scientists is something Drs. Tim and Deanna Sellnow have been committed to for decades. As such, they have compiled a host of data-driven best practices for communicating effectively to non-scientific publics about earthquake forecasting, probabilities, and warnings. In this session, they will summarize what they have learned as it may help earthquake scientists, emergency managers, and other key spokespersons share these important messages to disparate publics in ways that result in positive outcomes, the most important of which is saving lives.

  19. Early signs that predict later haemodynamically significant patent ductus arteriosus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engür, Defne; Deveci, Murat; Türkmen, Münevver K

    2016-03-01

    Our aim was to determine the optimal cut-off values, sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic power of 12 echocardiographic parameters on the second day of life to predict subsequent ductal patency. We evaluated preterm infants, born at ⩽32 weeks of gestation, starting on their second day of life, and they were evaluated every other day until ductal closure or until there were clinical signs of re-opening. We measured transductal diameter; pulmonary arterial diastolic flow; retrograde aortic diastolic flow; pulsatility index of the left pulmonary artery and descending aorta; left atrium and ventricle/aortic root ratio; left ventricular output; left ventricular flow velocity time integral; mitral early/late diastolic flow; and superior caval vein diameter and flow as well as performed receiver operating curve analysis. Transductal diameter (>1.5 mm); pulmonary arterial diastolic flow (>25.6 cm/second); presence of retrograde aortic diastolic flow; ductal diameter by body weight (>1.07 mm/kg); left pulmonary arterial pulsatility index (⩽0.71); and left ventricle to aortic root ratio (>2.2) displayed high sensitivity and specificity (p0.9). Parameters with moderate sensitivity and specificity were as follows: left atrial to aortic root ratio; left ventricular output; left ventricular flow velocity time integral; and mitral early/late diastolic flow ratio (p0.05) had low diagnostic value. Left pulmonary arterial pulsatility index, left ventricle/aortic root ratio, and ductal diameter by body weight are useful adjuncts offering a broader outlook for predicting ductal patency.

  20. Predicting Early Maladaptive Schemas Using Baumrind’s Parenting Styles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esmali Kooraneh, Ahmad; Amirsardari, Leili

    2015-01-01

    Background: Families play an essential role in maintaining children’s mental, social, and physical health. The family provides the first and the most important social context for human development. Objectives: The present study aimed to predict early maladaptive schemas using Baumrind’s parenting styles (root development). Patients and Methods: A total of 357 undergraduate students of Islamic Azad University, Urmia Branch, Iran, were selected through random cluster sampling during 2013 and 2014. The students were assessed using the Schema Questionnaire-Short Form (SQ-SF) and the Baumrind’s parenting styles inventories. Results: The result of regression analysis showed that Baumrind’s parenting styles are significant predictors of early maladaptive schemas (P parenting style has some features such as showing high levels of warmth or encouraging kids to express their own possibly divergent opinions. The authoritarian parenting style, however, possesses traits such as heartlessness, impassiveness, strictness, and lack of attention to the children’s developmental needs, which is not acceptable. PMID:26288648

  1. Adolescent expectations of early death predict adult risk behaviors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quynh C Nguyen

    Full Text Available Only a handful of public health studies have investigated expectations of early death among adolescents. Associations have been found between these expectations and risk behaviors in adolescence. However, these beliefs may not only predict worse adolescent outcomes, but worse trajectories in health with ties to negative outcomes that endure into young adulthood. The objectives of this study were to investigate perceived chances of living to age 35 (Perceived Survival Expectations, PSE as a predictor of suicidal ideation, suicide attempt and substance use in young adulthood. We examined the predictive capacity of PSE on future suicidal ideation/attempt after accounting for sociodemographics, depressive symptoms, and history of suicide among family and friends to more fully assess its unique contribution to suicide risk. We investigated the influence of PSE on legal and illegal substance use and varying levels of substance use. We utilized the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health initiated in 1994-95 among 20,745 adolescents in grades 7-12 with follow-up interviews in 1996 (Wave II, 2001-02 (Wave III and 2008 (Wave IV; ages 24-32. Compared to those who were almost certain of living to age 35, perceiving a 50-50 or less chance of living to age 35 at Waves I or III predicted suicide attempt and ideation as well as regular substance use (i.e., exceeding daily limits for moderate drinking; smoking ≥ a pack/day; and using illicit substances other than marijuana at least weekly at Wave IV. Associations between PSE and detrimental adult outcomes were particularly strong for those reporting persistently low PSE at both Waves I and III. Low PSE at Wave I or Wave III was also related to a doubling and tripling, respectively, of death rates in young adulthood. Long-term and wide-ranging ties between PSE and detrimental outcomes suggest these expectations may contribute to identifying at-risk youth.

  2. Technical implementation plan for the ShakeAlert production system: an Earthquake Early Warning system for the West Coast of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Given, Douglas D.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Heaton, Thomas; Hauksson, Egill; Allen, Richard; Hellweg, Peggy; Vidale, John; Bodin, Paul

    2014-01-01

    Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems can provide as much as tens of seconds of warning to people and automated systems before strong shaking arrives. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners are developing such an EEW system, called ShakeAlert, for the West Coast of the United States. This document describes the technical implementation of that system, which leverages existing stations and infrastructure of the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) regional networks to achieve this new capability. While significant progress has been made in developing the ShakeAlert early warning system, improved robustness of each component of the system and additional testing and certification are needed for the system to be reliable enough to issue public alerts. Major components of the system include dense networks of ground motion sensors, telecommunications from those sensors to central processing systems, algorithms for event detection and alert creation, and distribution systems to alert users. Capital investment costs for a West Coast EEW system are projected to be $38.3M, with additional annual maintenance and operations totaling $16.1M—in addition to current ANSS expenditures for earthquake monitoring. An EEW system is complementary to, but does not replace, other strategies to mitigate earthquake losses. The system has limitations: false and missed alerts are possible, and the area very near to an earthquake epicenter may receive little or no warning. However, such an EEW system would save lives, reduce injuries and damage, and improve community resilience by reducing longer-term economic losses for both public and private entities.

  3. Building a Communication, Education, an Outreach Program for the ShakeAlert National Earthquake Early Warning Program - Recommendations for Public Alerts Via Cell Phones

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeGroot, R. M.; Long, K.; Strauss, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    The United States Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners are developing the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System for the West Coast of the United States. To be an integral part of successful implementation, ShakeAlert engagement programs and materials must integrate with and leverage broader earthquake risk programs. New methods and products for dissemination must be multidisciplinary, cost effective, and consistent with existing hazards education and communication efforts. The ShakeAlert Joint Committee for Communication, Education, and Outreach (JCCEO), is identifying, developing, and cultivating partnerships with ShakeAlert stakeholders including Federal, State, academic partners, private companies, policy makers, and local organizations. Efforts include developing materials, methods for delivery, and reaching stakeholders with information on ShakeAlert, earthquake preparedness, and emergency protective actions. It is essential to develop standards to ensure information communicated via the alerts is consistent across the public and private sector and achieving a common understanding of what actions users take when they receive a ShakeAlert warning. In February 2017, the JCCEO convened the Warning Message Focus Group (WMFG) to provide findings and recommendations to the Alliance for Telecommunications Industry Solutions on the use of earthquake early warning message content standards for public alerts via cell phones. The WMFG represents communications, education, and outreach stakeholders from various sectors including ShakeAlert regional coordinators, industry, emergency managers, and subject matter experts from the social sciences. The group knowledge was combined with an in-depth literature review to ensure that all groups who could receive the message would be taken into account. The USGS and the participating states and agencies acknowledge that the implementation of ShakeAlert is a collective effort requiring the participation of hundreds of

  4. NGA-West 2 Equations for predicting PGA, PGV, and 5%-Damped PSA for shallow crustal earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boore, David M.; Stewart, Jon P.; Seyhan, Emel; Atkinson, Gail M.

    2013-01-01

    We provide ground-motion prediction equations for computing medians and standard deviations of average horizontal component intensity measures (IMs) for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions. The equations were derived from a global database with M 3.0–7.9 events. We derived equations for the primary M- and distance-dependence of the IMs after fixing the VS30-based nonlinear site term from a parallel NGA-West 2 study. We then evaluated additional effects using mixed effects residuals analysis, which revealed no trends with source depth over the M range of interest, indistinct Class 1 and 2 event IMs, and basin depth effects that increase and decrease long-period IMs for depths larger and smaller, respectively, than means from regional VS30-depth relations. Our aleatory variability model captures decreasing between-event variability with M, as well as within-event variability that increases or decreases with M depending on period, increases with distance, and decreases for soft sites.

  5. NGA-West2 equations for predicting vertical-component PGA, PGV, and 5%-damped PSA from shallow crustal earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Jonathan P.; Boore, David M.; Seyhan, Emel; Atkinson, Gail M.

    2016-01-01

    We present ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for computing natural log means and standard deviations of vertical-component intensity measures (IMs) for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions. The equations were derived from a global database with M 3.0–7.9 events. The functions are similar to those for our horizontal GMPEs. We derive equations for the primary M- and distance-dependence of peak acceleration, peak velocity, and 5%-damped pseudo-spectral accelerations at oscillator periods between 0.01–10 s. We observe pronounced M-dependent geometric spreading and region-dependent anelastic attenuation for high-frequency IMs. We do not observe significant region-dependence in site amplification. Aleatory uncertainty is found to decrease with increasing magnitude; within-event variability is independent of distance. Compared to our horizontal-component GMPEs, attenuation rates are broadly comparable (somewhat slower geometric spreading, faster apparent anelastic attenuation), VS30-scaling is reduced, nonlinear site response is much weaker, within-event variability is comparable, and between-event variability is greater.

  6. Robust early pregnancy prediction of later preeclampsia using metabolomic biomarkers.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Kenny, Louise C

    2012-01-31

    Preeclampsia is a pregnancy-specific syndrome that causes substantial maternal and fetal morbidity and mortality. The etiology is incompletely understood, and there is no clinically useful screening test. Current metabolomic technologies have allowed the establishment of metabolic signatures of preeclampsia in early pregnancy. Here, a 2-phase discovery\\/validation metabolic profiling study was performed. In the discovery phase, a nested case-control study was designed, using samples obtained at 15+\\/-1 weeks\\' gestation from 60 women who subsequently developed preeclampsia and 60 controls taking part in the prospective Screening for Pregnancy Endpoints cohort study. Controls were proportionally population matched for age, ethnicity, and body mass index at booking. Plasma samples were analyzed using ultra performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. A multivariate predictive model combining 14 metabolites gave an odds ratio for developing preeclampsia of 36 (95% CI: 12 to 108), with an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.94. These findings were then validated using an independent case-control study on plasma obtained at 15+\\/-1 weeks from 39 women who subsequently developed preeclampsia and 40 similarly matched controls from a participating center in a different country. The same 14 metabolites produced an odds ratio of 23 (95% CI: 7 to 73) with an area under receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.92. The finding of a consistent discriminatory metabolite signature in early pregnancy plasma preceding the onset of preeclampsia offers insight into disease pathogenesis and offers the tantalizing promise of a robust presymptomatic screening test.

  7. Robust Early Pregnancy Prediction of Later Preeclampsia Using Metabolomic Biomarkers.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Kenny, Louise C

    2010-09-13

    Preeclampsia is a pregnancy-specific syndrome that causes substantial maternal and fetal morbidity and mortality. The etiology is incompletely understood, and there is no clinically useful screening test. Current metabolomic technologies have allowed the establishment of metabolic signatures of preeclampsia in early pregnancy. Here, a 2-phase discovery\\/validation metabolic profiling study was performed. In the discovery phase, a nested case-control study was designed, using samples obtained at 15±1 weeks\\' gestation from 60 women who subsequently developed preeclampsia and 60 controls taking part in the prospective Screening for Pregnancy Endpoints cohort study. Controls were proportionally population matched for age, ethnicity, and body mass index at booking. Plasma samples were analyzed using ultra performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. A multivariate predictive model combining 14 metabolites gave an odds ratio for developing preeclampsia of 36 (95% CI: 12 to 108), with an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.94. These findings were then validated using an independent case-control study on plasma obtained at 15±1 weeks from 39 women who subsequently developed preeclampsia and 40 similarly matched controls from a participating center in a different country. The same 14 metabolites produced an odds ratio of 23 (95% CI: 7 to 73) with an area under receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.92. The finding of a consistent discriminatory metabolite signature in early pregnancy plasma preceding the onset of preeclampsia offers insight into disease pathogenesis and offers the tantalizing promise of a robust presymptomatic screening test.

  8. Discussion of the design of satellite-laser measurement stations in the eastern Mediterranean under the geological aspect. Contribution to the earthquake prediction research by the Wegener Group and to NASA's Crustal Dynamics Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paluska, A.; Pavoni, N.

    1983-01-01

    Research conducted for determining the location of stations for measuring crustal dynamics and predicting earthquakes is discussed. Procedural aspects, the extraregional kinematic tendencies, and regional tectonic deformation mechanisms are described.

  9. Prospective testing of Coulomb short-term earthquake forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, D. D.; Kagan, Y. Y.; Schorlemmer, D.; Zechar, J. D.; Wang, Q.; Wong, K.

    2009-12-01

    Earthquake induced Coulomb stresses, whether static or dynamic, suddenly change the probability of future earthquakes. Models to estimate stress and the resulting seismicity changes could help to illuminate earthquake physics and guide appropriate precautionary response. But do these models have improved forecasting power compared to empirical statistical models? The best answer lies in prospective testing in which a fully specified model, with no subsequent parameter adjustments, is evaluated against future earthquakes. The Center of Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) facilitates such prospective testing of earthquake forecasts, including several short term forecasts. Formulating Coulomb stress models for formal testing involves several practical problems, mostly shared with other short-term models. First, earthquake probabilities must be calculated after each “perpetrator” earthquake but before the triggered earthquakes, or “victims”. The time interval between a perpetrator and its victims may be very short, as characterized by the Omori law for aftershocks. CSEP evaluates short term models daily, and allows daily updates of the models. However, lots can happen in a day. An alternative is to test and update models on the occurrence of each earthquake over a certain magnitude. To make such updates rapidly enough and to qualify as prospective, earthquake focal mechanisms, slip distributions, stress patterns, and earthquake probabilities would have to be made by computer without human intervention. This scheme would be more appropriate for evaluating scientific ideas, but it may be less useful for practical applications than daily updates. Second, triggered earthquakes are imperfectly recorded following larger events because their seismic waves are buried in the coda of the earlier event. To solve this problem, testing methods need to allow for “censoring” of early aftershock data, and a quantitative model for detection threshold as a function of

  10. The GIS and analysis of earthquake damage distribution of the 1303 Hongtong M=8 earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Meng-Tan; Jin, Xue-Shen; An, Wei-Ping; Lü, Xiao-Jian

    2004-07-01

    The geography information system of the 1303 Hongton M=8 earthquake has been established. Using the spatial analysis function of GIS, the spatial distribution characteristics of damage and isoseismal of the earthquake are studies. By comparing with the standard earthquake intensity attenuation relationship, the abnormal damage distribution of the earthquake is found, so the relationship of the abnormal distribution with tectonics, site condition and basin are analyzed. In this paper, the influence on the ground motion generated by earthquake source and the underground structures near source also are studied. The influence on seismic zonation, anti-earthquake design, earthquake prediction and earthquake emergency responding produced by the abnormal density distribution are discussed.

  11. Early Antenatal Prediction of Gestational Diabetes in Obese Women: Development of Prediction Tools for Targeted Intervention.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara L White

    Full Text Available All obese women are categorised as being of equally high risk of gestational diabetes (GDM whereas the majority do not develop the disorder. Lifestyle and pharmacological interventions in unselected obese pregnant women have been unsuccessful in preventing GDM. Our aim was to develop a prediction tool for early identification of obese women at high risk of GDM to facilitate targeted interventions in those most likely to benefit. Clinical and anthropometric data and non-fasting blood samples were obtained at 15+0-18+6 weeks' gestation in 1303 obese pregnant women from UPBEAT, a randomised controlled trial of a behavioural intervention. Twenty one candidate biomarkers associated with insulin resistance, and a targeted nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR metabolome were measured. Prediction models were constructed using stepwise logistic regression. Twenty six percent of women (n = 337 developed GDM (International Association of Diabetes and Pregnancy Study Groups criteria. A model based on clinical and anthropometric variables (age, previous GDM, family history of type 2 diabetes, systolic blood pressure, sum of skinfold thicknesses, waist:height and neck:thigh ratios provided an area under the curve of 0.71 (95%CI 0.68-0.74. This increased to 0.77 (95%CI 0.73-0.80 with addition of candidate biomarkers (random glucose, haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c, fructosamine, adiponectin, sex hormone binding globulin, triglycerides, but was not improved by addition of NMR metabolites (0.77; 95%CI 0.74-0.81. Clinically translatable models for GDM prediction including readily measurable variables e.g. mid-arm circumference, age, systolic blood pressure, HbA1c and adiponectin are described. Using a ≥35% risk threshold, all models identified a group of high risk obese women of whom approximately 50% (positive predictive value later developed GDM, with a negative predictive value of 80%. Tools for early pregnancy identification of obese women at risk of GDM are described

  12. Predictive algorithms for early detection of retinopathy of prematurity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piermarocchi, Stefano; Bini, Silvia; Martini, Ferdinando; Berton, Marianna; Lavini, Anna; Gusson, Elena; Marchini, Giorgio; Padovani, Ezio Maria; Macor, Sara; Pignatto, Silvia; Lanzetta, Paolo; Cattarossi, Luigi; Baraldi, Eugenio; Lago, Paola

    2017-03-01

    To evaluate sensitivity, specificity and the safest cut-offs of three predictive algorithms (WINROP, ROPScore and CHOP ROP) for retinopathy of prematurity (ROP). A retrospective study was conducted in three centres from 2012 to 2014; 445 preterms with gestational age (GA) ≤ 30 weeks and/or birthweight (BW) ≤ 1500 g, and additional unstable cases, were included. No-ROP, mild and type 1 ROP were categorized. The algorithms were analysed for infants with all parameters (GA, BW, weight gain, oxygen therapy, blood transfusion) needed for calculation (399 babies). Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) was identified in both eyes in 116 patients (26.1%), and 44 (9.9%) had type 1 ROP. Gestational age and BW were significantly lower in ROP group compared with no-ROP subjects (GA: 26.7 ± 2.2 and 30.2 ± 1.9, respectively, p < 0.0001; BW: 839.8 ± 287.0 and 1288.1 ± 321.5 g, respectively, p = 0.0016). Customized alarms of ROPScore and CHOP ROP correctly identified all infants having any ROP or type 1 ROP. WINROP missed 19 cases of ROP, including three type 1 ROP. ROPScore and CHOP ROP provided the best performances with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the detection of severe ROP of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.90-0.96, and 95% CI, 0.89-0.96, respectively), and WINROP obtained 0.83 (95% CI, 0.77-0.87). Median time from alarm to treatment was 11.1, 5.1 and 9.1 weeks, for WINROP, ROPScore and CHOP ROP, respectively. ROPScore and CHOP ROP showed 100% sensitivity to identify sight-threatening ROP. Predictive algorithms are a reliable tool for early identification of infants requiring referral to an ophthalmologist, for reorganizing resources and reducing stressful procedures to preterm babies. © 2016 Acta Ophthalmologica Scandinavica Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Stroke scale score and early prediction of outcome after stroke

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed, R.; Zuberi, F.Z.; Afsar, S.

    2004-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate the baseline National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score as a predictor of functional outcome after ischemic stroke. Subjects and Methods: The study included 50 patients who presented to Civil Hospital, Karachi, during the study period with acute stroke and were evaluated with CT scan of brain. Only those patients were enrolled in the study that had acute ischemic stroke. The enrolled subjects were then evaluated for the neurological impairment using National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS). The subjects were followed-up and their functional outcome was assessed using Barthel index (BI) on the 7th day of their admission. Results: Of the fifty patients enrolled in the study, 31 (62%) were males and 19 (38%) were females, with age ranging from 45 years to 95 years and a mean age of 59.9 years. Neurological impairment at presentation was assessed by NIHSS. The score ranged between 2 and 28. The functional outcome was evaluated on the 7th day using Barthel index (BI), which ranged from 0 to 80. NIHSS score was found to be a good predictor of functional outcome in patients with ischemic stroke (p<0.001). Other factors like gender, hypertension and heart disease did not affect the functional recovery in such patients. Various factors were found to be significant for early prediction of stroke recovery. The NIHSS score was the strongest predictor of outcome after ischemic stroke. Age at the time of the event was also found to be an important predictor for stroke recovery. Conclusion: The NIHSS score is a good predictor of patient's recovery after stroke. Assessing the patient's neurological impairment at first presentation of ischemic stroke can guide the physician regarding the prognosis and management plan. (author)

  14. Methods for prediction of strong earthquake ground motion. Final technical report, October 1, 1976--September 30, 1977

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trifunac, M.D.

    1977-09-01

    The purpose of this report is to summarize the results of the work on characterization of strong earthquake ground motion. The objective of this effort has been to initiate presentation of simple yet detailed methodology for characterization of strong earthquake ground motion for use in licensing and evaluation of operating Nuclear Power Plants. This report will emphasize the simplicity of the methodology by presenting only the end results in a format that may be useful for the development of the site specific criteria in seismic risk analysis, for work on the development of modern standards and regulatory guides, and for re-evaluation of the existing power plant sites

  15. PRECURSORS OF EARTHQUAKES: VLF SIGNALSIONOSPHERE IONOSPHERE RELATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa ULAS

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available lot of people have died because of earthquakes every year. Therefore It is crucial to predict the time of the earthquakes reasonable time before it had happed. This paper presents recent information published in the literature about precursors of earthquakes. The relationships between earthquakes and ionosphere are targeted to guide new researches in order to study further to find novel prediction methods.

  16. Location of early aftershocks of the 2004 Mid-Niigata Prefecture Earthquake (M = 6.8) in central Japan using seismogram envelopes as templates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosuga, M.

    2013-12-01

    The location of early aftershocks is very important to obtain information of mainshock fault, however, it is often difficult due to the long-lasting coda wave of mainshock and successive occurrence of afterrshocks. To overcome this difficulty, we developed a method of location using seismogram envelopes as templates, and applied the method to the early aftershock sequence of the 2004 Mid-Niigata Prefecture (Chuetsu) Earthquake (M = 6.8) in central Japan. The location method composes of three processes. The first process is the calculation of cross-correlation coefficients between a continuous (target) and template envelopes. We prepare envelopes by taking the logarithm of root-mean-squared amplitude of band-pass filtered seismograms. We perform the calculation by shifting the time window to obtain a set of cross-correlation values for each template. The second process is the event detection (selection of template) and magnitude estimate. We search for the events in descending order of cross-correlation in a time window excluding the dead times around the previously detected events. Magnitude is calculated by the amplitude ratio of target and template envelopes. The third process is the relative event location to the selected template. We applied this method to the Chuetsu earthquake, a large inland earthquake with extensive aftershock activity. The number of detected events depends on the number of templates, frequency range, and the threshold value of cross-correlation. We set the threshold as 0.5 by referring to the histogram of cross-correlation. During a period of one-hour from the mainshock, we could detect more events than the JMA catalog. The location of events is generally near the catalog location. Though we should improve the methods of relative location and magnitude estimate, we conclude that the proposed method works adequately even just after the mainshock of large inland earthquake. Acknowledgement: We thank JMA, NIED, and the University of Tokyo for

  17. Early prediction of language and literacy problems: is 18 months too early?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fiona J. Duff

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available There is a lack of stability in language difficulties across early childhood: most late talkers (LTs resolve their difficulties by pre-school; and a significant number of children who were not LTs subsequently manifest language difficulties. Greater reliability in predicting individual outcomes is needed, which might be achieved by waiting until later in development when language is more stable. At 18 months, productive vocabulary scores on the Oxford Communicative Developmental Inventory were used to classify children as LTs or average talkers (ATs. Thirty matched-pairs of LTs and ATs were followed up at school-age (average age 7 years, when language and literacy outcomes were assessed. For 18 children, intermediate testing at age 4 had classified them as showing typical development (TD or specific language impairment (SLI. After correcting for multiple comparisons, there were no significant differences between the LTs and ATs on any outcome measure, and the LTs were performing in the average range. However, there were large-sized effects on all outcomes when comparing the TD and SLI groups. LT status on its own is not determinative of language and literacy difficulties. It would therefore not be appropriate to use expressive vocabulary measures alone to screen for language difficulties at 18 months. However, children with language impairment at age 4 are at risk of enduring difficulties.

  18. Markers for prediction and early detection of Pneumoconiosis

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Murray, J

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available pathological mechanisms in the pathway from silica exposure to the development of silicosis have been elucidated. If scientifically acceptable existing biomarkers for silica dust exposure can be identified, industry could utilise these for the early...

  19. Predictive model for early math skills based on structural equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aragón, Estíbaliz; Navarro, José I; Aguilar, Manuel; Cerda, Gamal; García-Sedeño, Manuel

    2016-12-01

    Early math skills are determined by higher cognitive processes that are particularly important for acquiring and developing skills during a child's early education. Such processes could be a critical target for identifying students at risk for math learning difficulties. Few studies have considered the use of a structural equation method to rationalize these relations. Participating in this study were 207 preschool students ages 59 to 72 months, 108 boys and 99 girls. Performance with respect to early math skills, early literacy, general intelligence, working memory, and short-term memory was assessed. A structural equation model explaining 64.3% of the variance in early math skills was applied. Early literacy exhibited the highest statistical significance (β = 0.443, p < 0.05), followed by intelligence (β = 0.286, p < 0.05), working memory (β = 0.220, p < 0.05), and short-term memory (β = 0.213, p < 0.05). Correlations between the independent variables were also significant (p < 0.05). According to the results, cognitive variables should be included in remedial intervention programs. © 2016 Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Future Earth: Reducing Loss By Automating Response to Earthquake Shaking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, R. M.

    2014-12-01

    Earthquakes pose a significant threat to society in the U.S. and around the world. The risk is easily forgotten given the infrequent recurrence of major damaging events, yet the likelihood of a major earthquake in California in the next 30 years is greater than 99%. As our societal infrastructure becomes ever more interconnected, the potential impacts of these future events are difficult to predict. Yet, the same inter-connected infrastructure also allows us to rapidly detect earthquakes as they begin, and provide seconds, tens or seconds, or a few minutes warning. A demonstration earthquake early warning system is now operating in California and is being expanded to the west coast (www.ShakeAlert.org). In recent earthquakes in the Los Angeles region, alerts were generated that could have provided warning to the vast majority of Los Angelinos who experienced the shaking. Efforts are underway to build a public system. Smartphone technology will be used not only to issue that alerts, but could also be used to collect data, and improve the warnings. The MyShake project at UC Berkeley is currently testing an app that attempts to turn millions of smartphones into earthquake-detectors. As our development of the technology continues, we can anticipate ever-more automated response to earthquake alerts. Already, the BART system in the San Francisco Bay Area automatically stops trains based on the alerts. In the future, elevators will stop, machinery will pause, hazardous materials will be isolated, and self-driving cars will pull-over to the side of the road. In this presentation we will review the current status of the earthquake early warning system in the US. We will illustrate how smartphones can contribute to the system. Finally, we will review applications of the information to reduce future losses.

  1. Early Prediction of Transient Voltage Sags caused by Rotor Swings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weckesser, Johannes Tilman Gabriel; Jóhannsson, Hjörtur; Van Cutsem, Thierry

    2014-01-01

    The paper investigates various methods to predict voltage sags at load buses caused by large generator rotor swings and following a transient disturbance. Three different prediction methods are proposed, which all use real-time measurements from PMUs. One of the methods uses a slightly extended v...... version of the E-SIME method. The other two methods use Measurements and process them by recursive least square estimation. It is shown that the prediction method employing E-SIME allows the earliest detection of a critical voltage sag with satisfactory accuracy....

  2. Early pharmaceutical profiling to predict oral drug absorption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bergström, Christel A S; Holm, René; Jørgensen, Søren Astrup

    2014-01-01

    Preformulation measurements are used to estimate the fraction absorbed in vivo for orally administered compounds and thereby allow an early evaluation of the need for enabling formulations. As part of the Oral Biopharmaceutical Tools (OrBiTo) project, this review provides a summary of the pharmac......Preformulation measurements are used to estimate the fraction absorbed in vivo for orally administered compounds and thereby allow an early evaluation of the need for enabling formulations. As part of the Oral Biopharmaceutical Tools (OrBiTo) project, this review provides a summary...... and state-of-the art methodologies to study API properties impacting on oral absorption are reviewed. Assays performed during early development, i.e. physicochemical characterization, dissolution profiles under physiological conditions, permeability assays and the impact of excipients on these properties...

  3. Web-based Tsunami Early Warning System: a case study of the 2010 Kepulaunan Mentawai Earthquake and Tsunami

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Ulutas

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the response of the Global Disasters Alerts and Coordination System (GDACS in relation to a case study: the Kepulaunan Mentawai earthquake and related tsunami, which occurred on 25 October 2010. The GDACS, developed by the European Commission Joint Research Center, combines existing web-based disaster information management systems with the aim to alert the international community in case of major disasters. The tsunami simulation system is an integral part of the GDACS. In more detail, the study aims to assess the tsunami hazard on the Mentawai and Sumatra coasts: the tsunami heights and arrival times have been estimated employing three propagation models based on the long wave theory. The analysis was performed in three stages: (1 pre-calculated simulations by using the tsunami scenario database for that region, used by the GDACS system to estimate the alert level; (2 near-real-time simulated tsunami forecasts, automatically performed by the GDACS system whenever a new earthquake is detected by the seismological data providers; and (3 post-event tsunami calculations using GCMT (Global Centroid Moment Tensor fault mechanism solutions proposed by US Geological Survey (USGS for this event. The GDACS system estimates the alert level based on the first type of calculations and on that basis sends alert messages to its users; the second type of calculations is available within 30–40 min after the notification of the event but does not change the estimated alert level. The third type of calculations is performed to improve the initial estimations and to have a better understanding of the extent of the possible damage. The automatic alert level for the earthquake was given between Green and Orange Alert, which, in the logic of GDACS, means no need or moderate need of international humanitarian assistance; however, the earthquake generated 3 to 9 m tsunami run-up along southwestern coasts of the Pagai Islands where 431 people died

  4. Preventive child health care findings on early childhood predict peer-group social status in early adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaspers, Merlijne; de Winter, Andrea F; Veenstra, René; Ormel, Johan; Verhulst, Frank C; Reijneveld, Sijmen A

    2012-12-01

    A disputed social status among peers puts children and adolescents at risk for developing a wide range of problems, such as being bullied. However, there is a lack of knowledge about which early predictors could be used to identify (young) adolescents at risk for a disputed social status. The aim of this study was to assess whether preventive child health care (PCH) findings on early childhood predict neglected and rejected status in early adolescence in a large longitudinal community-based sample. Data came from 898 participants who participated in TRAILS, a longitudinal study. Information on early childhood factors was extracted from the charts of routine PCH visits registered between infancy and age of 4 years. To assess social status, peer nominations were used at age of 10-12 years. Multinomial logistic regression showed that children who had a low birth weight, motor problems, and sleep problems; children of parents with a low educational level (odds ratios [ORs] between 1.71 and 2.90); and those with fewer attention hyperactivity problems (ORs = .43) were more likely to have a neglected status in early adolescence. Boys, children of parents with a low educational level, and children with early externalizing problems were more likely to have a rejected status in early adolescence (ORs between 1.69 and 2.56). PCH findings on early childhood-on motor and social development-are predictive of a neglected and a rejected status in early adolescence. PCH is a good setting to monitor risk factors that predict the social status of young adolescents. Copyright © 2012 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Predicting early adoption of successive video player generations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijnsoever, F.J. van; Oppewal, H.

    2012-01-01

    Early adopters play an important role in the innovation diffusion process. Over the past decades, many factors have been identified as predictors for earlyadoption of innovations. Less attention has been paid to the relationship between the earlyadoption of one generation of a specific product and

  6. Early visceral pain predicts chronic pain after laparoscopic cholecystectomy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blichfeldt-Eckhardt, Morten Rune; Ording, Helle; Andersen, Claus

    2014-01-01

    Chronic pain after laparoscopic cholecystectomy is related to postoperative pain during the first postoperative week, but it is unknown which components of the early pain response is important. In this prospective study, 100 consecutive patients were examined preoperatively, 1week postoperatively...

  7. Frequent Daytime Naps Predict Vocabulary Growth in Early Childhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horváth, Klára; Plunkett, Kim

    2016-01-01

    Background: The facilitating role of sleep for language learning is well-attested in adults and to a lesser extent in infants and toddlers. However, the longitudinal relationship between sleep patterns and early vocabulary development is not well understood. Methods: This study investigates how measures of sleep are related to the development of…

  8. Do earthquakes exhibit self-organized criticality?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Xiaosong; Ma Jin; Du Shuming

    2004-01-01

    If earthquakes are phenomena of self-organized criticality (SOC), statistical characteristics of the earthquake time series should be invariant after the sequence of events in an earthquake catalog are randomly rearranged. In this Letter we argue that earthquakes are unlikely phenomena of SOC because our analysis of the Southern California Earthquake Catalog shows that the first-return-time probability P M (T) is apparently changed after the time series is rearranged. This suggests that the SOC theory should not be used to oppose the efforts of earthquake prediction

  9. Resource loss, self-efficacy, and family support predict posttraumatic stress symptoms: a 3-year study of earthquake survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, Lisa Marie; Gutiérrez-Doña, Benicio; Villegas Angulo, Maricela; Schwarzer, Ralf

    2015-01-01

    Social support and self-efficacy are regarded as coping resources that may facilitate readjustment after traumatic events. The 2009 Cinchona earthquake in Costa Rica serves as an example for such an event to study resources to prevent subsequent severity of posttraumatic stress symptoms. At Time 1 (1-6 months after the earthquake in 2009), N=200 survivors were interviewed, assessing resource loss, received family support, and posttraumatic stress response. At Time 2 in 2012, severity of posttraumatic stress symptoms and general self-efficacy beliefs were assessed. Regression analyses estimated the severity of posttraumatic stress symptoms accounted for by all variables. Moderator and mediator models were examined to understand the interplay of received family support and self-efficacy with posttraumatic stress symptoms. Baseline posttraumatic stress symptoms and resource loss (T1) accounted for significant but small amounts of the variance in the severity of posttraumatic stress symptoms (T2). The main effects of self-efficacy (T2) and social support (T1) were negligible, but social support buffered resource loss, indicating that only less supported survivors were affected by resource loss. Self-efficacy at T2 moderated the support-stress relationship, indicating that low levels of self-efficacy could be compensated by higher levels of family support. Receiving family support at T1 enabled survivors to feel self-efficacious, underlining the enabling hypothesis. Receiving social support from relatives shortly after an earthquake was found to be an important coping resource, as it alleviated the association between resource loss and the severity of posttraumatic stress response, compensated for deficits of self-efficacy, and enabled self-efficacy, which was in turn associated with more adaptive adjustment 3 years after the earthquake.

  10. Early warning score predicts acute mortality in stroke patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liljehult, J; Christensen, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Clinical deterioration and death among patients with acute stroke are often preceded by detrimental changes in physiological parameters. Systematic and effective tools to identify patients at risk of deterioration early enough to intervene are therefore needed. The aim of the study wa...... tool for identifying patients at risk of dying after acute stroke. Readily available physiological parameters are converted to a single score, which can guide both nurses and physicians in clinical decision making and resource allocation.......OBJECTIVES: Clinical deterioration and death among patients with acute stroke are often preceded by detrimental changes in physiological parameters. Systematic and effective tools to identify patients at risk of deterioration early enough to intervene are therefore needed. The aim of the study...

  11. Data Delivery Latency Improvements And First Steps Towards The Distributed Computing Of The Caltech/USGS Southern California Seismic Network Earthquake Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stubailo, I.; Watkins, M.; Devora, A.; Bhadha, R. J.; Hauksson, E.; Thomas, V. I.

    2016-12-01

    The USGS/Caltech Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN) is a modern digital ground motion seismic network. It develops and maintains Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) data collection and delivery systems in southern California as well as real-time EEW algorithms. Recently, Behr et al., SRL, 2016 analyzed data from several regional seismic networks deployed around the globe. They showed that the SCSN was the network with the smallest data communication delays or latency. Since then, we have reduced further the telemetry delays for many of the 330 current sites. The latency has been reduced on average from 2-6 sec to 0.4 seconds by tuning the datalogger parameters and/or deploying software upgrades. Recognizing the latency data as one of the crucial parameters in EEW, we have started archiving the per-packet latencies in mseed format for all the participating sites in a similar way it is traditionally done for the seismic waveform data. The archived latency values enable us to understand and document long-term changes in performance of the telemetry links. We can also retroactively investigate how latent the waveform data were during a specific event or during a specific time period. In addition the near-real time latency values are useful for monitoring and displaying the real-time station latency, in particular to compare different telemetry technologies. A future step to reduce the latency is to deploy the algorithms on the dataloggers at the seismic stations and transmit either the final solutions or intermediate parameters to a central processing center. To implement this approach, we are developing a stand-alone version of the OnSite algorithm to run on the dataloggers in the field. This will increase the resiliency of the SCSN to potential telemetry restrictions in the immediate aftermath of a large earthquake, either by allowing local alarming by the single station, or permitting transmission of lightweight parametric information rather than continuous

  12. Machine Learning Techniques for Prediction of Early Childhood Obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugan, T M; Mukhopadhyay, S; Carroll, A; Downs, S

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to predict childhood obesity after age two, using only data collected prior to the second birthday by a clinical decision support system called CHICA. Analyses of six different machine learning methods: RandomTree, RandomForest, J48, ID3, Naïve Bayes, and Bayes trained on CHICA data show that an accurate, sensitive model can be created. Of the methods analyzed, the ID3 model trained on the CHICA dataset proved the best overall performance with accuracy of 85% and sensitivity of 89%. Additionally, the ID3 model had a positive predictive value of 84% and a negative predictive value of 88%. The structure of the tree also gives insight into the strongest predictors of future obesity in children. Many of the strongest predictors seen in the ID3 modeling of the CHICA dataset have been independently validated in the literature as correlated with obesity, thereby supporting the validity of the model. This study demonstrated that data from a production clinical decision support system can be used to build an accurate machine learning model to predict obesity in children after age two.

  13. Control strategy to limit duty cycle impact of earthquakes on the LIGO gravitational-wave detectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biscans, S.; Warner, J.; Mittleman, R.; Buchanan, C.; Coughlin, M.; Evans, M.; Gabbard, H.; Harms, J.; Lantz, B.; Mukund, N.; Pele, A.; Pezerat, C.; Picart, P.; Radkins, H.; Shaffer, T.

    2018-03-01

    Advanced gravitational-wave detectors such as the laser interferometer gravitational-wave observatories (LIGO) require an unprecedented level of isolation from the ground. When in operation, they measure motion of less than 10‑19 m. Strong teleseismic events like earthquakes disrupt the proper functioning of the detectors, and result in a loss of data. An earthquake early-warning system, as well as a prediction model, have been developed to understand the impact of earthquakes on LIGO. This paper describes a control strategy to use this early-warning system to reduce the LIGO downtime by  ∼30%. It also presents a plan to implement this new earthquake configuration in the LIGO automation system.

  14. Early estimation of epicenter seismic intensities according to co-seismic deformation

    OpenAIRE

    Weidong, Li; Chaojun, Zhang; Dahui, Li; Jiayong, He; Huizhong, Chen; Lomnitz, Cinna

    2010-01-01

    The absolute fault displacement in co-seismic deformation is derived assuming that location, depth, faulting mechanism and magnitude of the earthquake are known. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (M8.0) is used as an example to determine the distribution of seismic intensities using absolute displacement and a crustal model. We fnd that an early prediction of the distribution of seismic intensities after a large earthquake may be performed from the estimated absolute co-seismic displacements using...

  15. Predicting Early Spelling: The Contribution of Children's Early Literacy, Private Speech during Spelling, Behavioral Regulation, and Parental Spelling Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aram, Dorit; Abiri, Shimrit; Elad, Lili

    2014-01-01

    The present study aimed to extend understanding of preschoolers' early spelling using the Vygotskian ("Mind in society: the development of higher psychological processes," Cambridge, Harvard University Press, 1978) paradigm of child development. We assessed the contribution of maternal spelling support in predicting children's word…

  16. Factors predicting early return of continence after radical prostatectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandhu, Jaspreet S; Eastham, James A

    2010-05-01

    Success of radical prostatectomy is measured by control of cancer and return of urinary and sexual function. Urinary incontinence is generally considered the greatest impairment in immediate postoperative urinary function. Multiple factors are associated with earlier return of urinary continence after radical prostatectomy. These factors can be divided into those known prior to surgery, and therefore possibly not modifiable, and factors that can be controlled during surgery or surgical planning. In addition, various postoperative maneuvers can help hasten urinary continence. This article examines the effect of known factors related to early return of urinary continence after radical prostatectomy.

  17. Health Visitor's Role in Prediction of Early Childhood Injuries and Failure to Thrive.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Janet G.; And Others

    1978-01-01

    Discusses the role of the health visitor in the prediction of early childhood injuries, abuse, and failure to thrive--based on a three-year study of the relationship between early maternal attitudes and subsequent child health. Journal availability: Pergamon Press Ltd., Headington Hill Hall, Oxford, OX3 OBW England. (DLS)

  18. Predictive Validity of Early Literacy Measures for Korean English Language Learners in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Jeanie Nam; Vanderwood, Michael L.; Lee, Catherine Y.

    2015-01-01

    This study examined the predictive validity of early literacy measures with first-grade Korean English language learners (ELLs) in the United States at varying levels of English proficiency. Participants were screened using Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills (DIBELS) Phoneme Segmentation Fluency (PSF), DIBELS Nonsense Word Fluency…

  19. Maternal Psychopathology and Early Child Temperament Predict Young Children's Salivary Cortisol 3 Years Later

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dougherty, Lea R.; Smith, Victoria C.; Olino, Thomas M.; Dyson, Margaret W.; Bufferd, Sara J.; Rose, Suzanne A.; Klein, Daniel N.

    2013-01-01

    Neuroendocrine dysfunction is hypothesized to be an early emerging vulnerability marker for depression. We tested whether the main and interactive effects of maternal psychopathology and early child temperamental vulnerability for depression assessed at age three predicted offspring's basal cortisol function at age 6 years. 228 (122 males)…

  20. Analog earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hofmann, R.B.

    1995-01-01

    Analogs are used to understand complex or poorly understood phenomena for which little data may be available at the actual repository site. Earthquakes are complex phenomena, and they can have a large number of effects on the natural system, as well as on engineered structures. Instrumental data close to the source of large earthquakes are rarely obtained. The rare events for which measurements are available may be used, with modfications, as analogs for potential large earthquakes at sites where no earthquake data are available. In the following, several examples of nuclear reactor and liquified natural gas facility siting are discussed. A potential use of analog earthquakes is proposed for a high-level nuclear waste (HLW) repository

  1. Multi-component observation in deep boreholes, and its applications to earthquake prediction research and rock mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishii, Hiroshi

    2014-01-01

    The Tono Research Institute of Earthquake Science (TRIES) has developed a multicomponent instrument that can be operated in deep boreholes (e.g., those one km in depth). It is equipped with stress meters, strain meters, tilt meters, seismometers, magnetometers, and thermometers; in addition, these sensors can be arbitrarily combined. The stress meters, which were developed recently, can observe stress and strain; in the future, data obtained from these sensors will offer new information on seismology and rock mechanics. The size of typical probe is 12 cm diameter 7.8 m total length and 290 kg total weight. It consists of many meters in tandem connection. (authors)

  2. Predictive patterns of early medication adherence in renal transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nevins, Thomas E; Robiner, William N; Thomas, William

    2014-10-27

    Patients' adherence with posttransplant immunosuppression is known to affect renal transplant outcomes. Prospectively, individual medication adherence patterns in 195 kidney transplant recipients were quantified with electronic medication monitors. Monitored drugs were mycophenolate mofetil, sirolimus, or azathioprine. Monitoring began at hospital discharge and continued an average of 15±8 months. Patient follow-up for clinical outcomes averaged 8±3 years. Each month's adherence percentage was calculated as the sum of daily adherence percents, divided by the number of evaluable days. During the first 3 months after transplantation, patients (n=44) with declining medication adherence, defined as dropping by 7% or higher (equal to missing 2 days) between months 1 and 2, later experienced lower mean medication adherence for months 6 to 12, 73% versus 92% respectively (Padherence, they also had more frequent (P=0.034) and earlier (P=0.065) acute rejection episodes. This was additionally associated with more frequent (P=0.017) and earlier (P=0.046) death-censored graft loss.In addition, daily medication adherence, expressed as the percentage of doses taken, decreased as the number of prescribed daily doses increased. During the first 3 months after transplantation, adherence with four doses per day averaged 84%, compared to 91% for patients on twice-daily dosing (P=0.024) and 93.5% for patients on once-daily dosing (P=0.008). Early declining medication nonadherence is associated with adverse clinical outcomes. This pattern is detectable during the first 2 months after transplantation. Early detection of nonadherence provides opportunities to target interventions toward patients at the highest risk for adverse behaviors and events.

  3. Early human pregnancy serum cytokine levels predict autoimmunity in offspring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindehammer, Sabina Resic; Björck, Sara; Lynch, Kristian; Brundin, Charlotte; Marsal, Karel; Agardh, Daniel; Fex, Malin

    2011-09-01

    It is generally believed that pregnancy is mediated by a Th2 response, which includes cytokines that promote placental growth and are involved in inducing tolerance to the foetus. If the balance between Th1/and Th2-mediated cytokines is disrupted, systemic and local changes could predispose the foetus to future disease. Therefore, a shift in the Th1/Th2 balance during pregnancy, possibly caused by underlying environmental factors, could be associated with post-partum autoimmune disease in the offspring. Based on this presumption, we used celiac disease as a model to investigate whether autoimmunity is triggered in the foetus during early pregnancy, observed as changes in the mother's cytokine profile. Ten cytokines were measured by electro-chemi-luminescent multiplex ELISA in serum samples obtained from mothers during early pregnancy. Cases included women with children who had developed verified celiac disease before the age of 5, who were compared with other women as matched controls. We observed that 7 out of 10 cytokine levels were significantly increased in our case mothers when compared to controls. Five of these belonged to what is generally known as a Th1-mediated response (TNFα, IFNγ, IL-2, IL-1β and IL-12) and two were Th2 cytokines (IL-13 and IL-10). However, the IL-10 cytokine is known to have features from both arms of the immune system. These results were confirmed in a logistic regression model where five out of the initial seven cytokines remained. This study suggests that increase in Th1 serum cytokines may be associated with celiac disease in offspring.

  4. Early Prediction of Student Dropout and Performance in MOOCSs Using Higher Granularity Temporal Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Cheng; Biswas, Gautam

    2014-01-01

    Our project is motivated by the early dropout and low completion rate problem in MOOCs. We have extended traditional features for MOOC analysis with richer and higher granularity information to make more accurate predictions of dropout and performance. The results show that finer-grained temporal information increases the predictive power in the…

  5. Predictive Coding Accelerates Word Recognition and Learning in the Early Stages of Language Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ylinen, Sari; Bosseler, Alexis; Junttila, Katja; Huotilainen, Minna

    2017-01-01

    The ability to predict future events in the environment and learn from them is a fundamental component of adaptive behavior across species. Here we propose that inferring predictions facilitates speech processing and word learning in the early stages of language development. Twelve- and 24-month olds' electrophysiological brain responses to heard…

  6. Does a dynamic test of phonological awareness predict early reading difficulties?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gellert, Anna Steenberg; Elbro, Carsten

    2017-01-01

    A few studies have indicated that dynamic measures of phonological awareness may contribute uniquely to the prediction of early reading development. However, standard control measures have been few and limited by floor effects, thus limiting their predictive value. The purpose of the present stud...

  7. Early prediction of outcome of activities of daily living after stroke: a systematic review

    OpenAIRE

    Veerbeek, J.M.; Kwakkel, G.; Wegen, van, E.E.H.; Ket, J.C.F.; Heijmans, M.W.

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE-Knowledge about robust and unbiased factors that predict outcome of activities of daily living (ADL) is paramount in stroke management. This review investigates the methodological quality of prognostic studies in the early poststroke phase for final ADL to identify variables that are predictive or not predictive for outcome of ADL after stroke. METHODS-PubMed, Ebsco/Cinahl and Embase were systematically searched for prognostic studies in which stroke patients were inclu...

  8. FLAIR vascular hyperintensities predict early ischemic recurrence in TIA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nam, Ki-Woong; Kim, Chi Kyung; Kim, Tae Jung; Oh, Kyungmi; Han, Moon-Ku; Ko, Sang-Bae; Yoon, Byung-Woo

    2018-02-27

    To evaluate the relationship between fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) vascular hyperintensity (FVH) and early ischemic lesion recurrence (follow-up diffusion-weighted imaging [FU-DWI] [+]) in patients with lesion-negative TIA. We recruited consecutive patients with lesion-negative TIA within 24 hours of symptom onset, who underwent follow-up MRI during the acute period. FVH was defined as a focal or serpentine high signal intensity on FLAIR images. Other potential confounders were adjusted to evaluate the relationship between FVH and FU-DWI (+). Furthermore, to compare clinical outcomes between the FU-DWI (+) and FU-DWI (-) groups, we assessed 1-year recurrent ischemic stroke or TIA. Among 392 patients with lesion-negative TIA, 82 patients had FU-DWI (+) on the follow-up MRI. In the multivariate analysis, FVH remained an independent predictor of FU-DWI (+) (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 4.77, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.45-9.29, p TIA. As FU-DWI (+) frequently occurs during the acute period and has a subsequent worse outcome after discharge, additional radiologic or clinical markers for it are necessary. © 2018 American Academy of Neurology.

  9. Earthquake precursory events around epicenters and local active faults; the cases of two inland earthquakes in Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valizadeh Alvan, H.; Mansor, S.; Haydari Azad, F.

    2012-12-01

    The possibility of earthquake prediction in the frame of several days to few minutes before its occurrence has stirred interest among researchers, recently. Scientists believe that the new theories and explanations of the mechanism of this natural phenomenon are trustable and can be the basis of future prediction efforts. During the last thirty years experimental researches resulted in some pre-earthquake events which are now recognized as confirmed warning signs (precursors) of past known earthquakes. With the advances in in-situ measurement devices and data analysis capabilities and the emergence of satellite-based data collectors, monitoring the earth's surface is now a regular work. Data providers are supplying researchers from all over the world with high quality and validated imagery and non-imagery data. Surface Latent Heat Flux (SLHF) or the amount of energy exchange in the form of water vapor between the earth's surface and atmosphere has been frequently reported as an earthquake precursor during the past years. The accumulated stress in the earth's crust during the preparation phase of earthquakes is said to be the main cause of temperature anomalies weeks to days before the main event and subsequent shakes. Chemical and physical interactions in the presence of underground water lead to higher water evaporation prior to inland earthquakes. On the other hand, the leak of Radon gas occurred as rocks break during earthquake preparation causes the formation of airborne ions and higher Air Temperature (AT) prior to main event. Although co-analysis of direct and indirect observation for precursory events is considered as a promising method for future successful earthquake prediction, without proper and thorough knowledge about the geological setting, atmospheric factors and geodynamics of the earthquake-prone regions we will not be able to identify anomalies due to seismic activity in the earth's crust. Active faulting is a key factor in identification of the

  10. Modeling, Forecasting and Mitigating Extreme Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Le Mouel, J.; Soloviev, A.

    2012-12-01

    Recent earthquake disasters highlighted the importance of multi- and trans-disciplinary studies of earthquake risk. A major component of earthquake disaster risk analysis is hazards research, which should cover not only a traditional assessment of ground shaking, but also studies of geodetic, paleoseismic, geomagnetic, hydrological, deep drilling and other geophysical and geological observations together with comprehensive modeling of earthquakes and forecasting extreme events. Extreme earthquakes (large magnitude and rare events) are manifestations of complex behavior of the lithosphere structured as a hierarchical system of blocks of different sizes. Understanding of physics and dynamics of the extreme events comes from observations, measurements and modeling. A quantitative approach to simulate earthquakes in models of fault dynamics will be presented. The models reproduce basic features of the observed seismicity (e.g., the frequency-magnitude relationship, clustering of earthquakes, occurrence of extreme seismic events). They provide a link between geodynamic processes and seismicity, allow studying extreme events, influence of fault network properties on seismic patterns and seismic cycles, and assist, in a broader sense, in earthquake forecast modeling. Some aspects of predictability of large earthquakes (how well can large earthquakes be predicted today?) will be also discussed along with possibilities in mitigation of earthquake disasters (e.g., on 'inverse' forensic investigations of earthquake disasters).

  11. ERPs recorded during early second language exposure predict syntactic learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batterink, Laura; Neville, Helen J

    2014-09-01

    Millions of adults worldwide are faced with the task of learning a second language (L2). Understanding the neural mechanisms that support this learning process is an important area of scientific inquiry. However, most previous studies on the neural mechanisms underlying L2 acquisition have focused on characterizing the results of learning, relying upon end-state outcome measures in which learning is assessed after it has occurred, rather than on the learning process itself. In this study, we adopted a novel and more direct approach to investigate neural mechanisms engaged during L2 learning, in which we recorded ERPs from beginning adult learners as they were exposed to an unfamiliar L2 for the first time. Learners' proficiency in the L2 was then assessed behaviorally using a grammaticality judgment task, and ERP data acquired during initial L2 exposure were sorted as a function of performance on this task. High-proficiency learners showed a larger N100 effect to open-class content words compared with closed-class function words, whereas low-proficiency learners did not show a significant N100 difference between open- and closed-class words. In contrast, amplitude of the N400 word category effect correlated with learners' L2 comprehension, rather than predicting syntactic learning. Taken together, these results indicate that learners who spontaneously direct greater attention to open- rather than closed-class words when processing L2 input show better syntactic learning, suggesting a link between selective attention to open-class content words and acquisition of basic morphosyntactic rules. These findings highlight the importance of selective attention mechanisms for L2 acquisition.

  12. Earthquake number forecasts testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagan, Yan Y.

    2017-10-01

    We study the distributions of earthquake numbers in two global earthquake catalogues: Global Centroid-Moment Tensor and Preliminary Determinations of Epicenters. The properties of these distributions are especially required to develop the number test for our forecasts of future seismic activity rate, tested by the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). A common assumption, as used in the CSEP tests, is that the numbers are described by the Poisson distribution. It is clear, however, that the Poisson assumption for the earthquake number distribution is incorrect, especially for the catalogues with a lower magnitude threshold. In contrast to the one-parameter Poisson distribution so widely used to describe earthquake occurrences, the negative-binomial distribution (NBD) has two parameters. The second parameter can be used to characterize the clustering or overdispersion of a process. We also introduce and study a more complex three-parameter beta negative-binomial distribution. We investigate the dependence of parameters for both Poisson and NBD distributions on the catalogue magnitude threshold and on temporal subdivision of catalogue duration. First, we study whether the Poisson law can be statistically rejected for various catalogue subdivisions. We find that for most cases of interest, the Poisson distribution can be shown to be rejected statistically at a high significance level in favour of the NBD. Thereafter, we investigate whether these distributions fit the observed distributions of seismicity. For this purpose, we study upper statistical moments of earthquake numbers (skewness and kurtosis) and compare them to the theoretical values for both distributions. Empirical values for the skewness and the kurtosis increase for the smaller magnitude threshold and increase with even greater intensity for small temporal subdivision of catalogues. The Poisson distribution for large rate values approaches the Gaussian law, therefore its skewness

  13. Tightly-coupled real-time analysis of GPS and accelerometer data for translational and rotational ground motions and application to earthquake and tsunami early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geng, J.; Bock, Y.; Melgar, D.; Hasse, J.; Crowell, B. W.

    2013-12-01

    High-rate GPS can play an important role in earthquake early warning (EEW) systems for large (>M6) events by providing permanent displacements immediately as they are achieved, to be used in source inversions that can be repeatedly updated as more information becomes available. This is most valuable to implement at a site very near the potential source rupture, where broadband seismometers are likely to clip, and accelerometer data cannot be objectively integrated to produce reliable displacements in real time. At present, more than 525 real-time GPS stations have been established in western North America, which are being integrated into EEW systems. Our analysis technique relies on a tightly-coupled combination of GPS and accelerometer data, an extension of precise point positioning with ambiguity resolution (PPP-AR). We operate a PPP service based on North American stations available through the IGS and UNAVCO/PBO. The service provides real-time satellite clock and fractional-cycle bias products that allow us to position individual client stations in the zone of deformation. The service reference stations are chosen to be further than 200 km from the primary zones of tectonic deformation in the western U.S. to avoid contamination of the satellite products during a large seismic event. At client stations, accelerometer data are applied as tight constraints on the positions between epochs in PPP-AR, which improves cycle-slip repair and rapid ambiguity resolution after GPS outages. Furthermore, we estimate site displacements, seismic velocities, and coseismic ground tilts to facilitate the analysis of ground motion characteristics and the inversion for source mechanisms. The seismogeodetic displacement and velocity waveforms preserves the detection of P wave arrivals, and provides P-wave arrival displacement that is key new information for EEW. Our innovative solution method for coseismic tilts mitigates an error source that has continually plagued strong motion

  14. Resting Heart Rate Predicts Depression and Cognition Early after Ischemic Stroke: A Pilot Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tessier, Arnaud; Sibon, Igor; Poli, Mathilde; Audiffren, Michel; Allard, Michèle; Pfeuty, Micha

    2017-10-01

    Early detection of poststroke depression (PSD) and cognitive impairment (PSCI) remains challenging. It is well documented that the function of autonomic nervous system is associated with depression and cognition. However, their relationship has never been investigated in the early poststroke phase. This pilot study aimed at determining whether resting heart rate (HR) parameters measured in early poststroke phase (1) are associated with early-phase measures of depression and cognition and (2) could be used as new tools for early objective prediction of PSD or PSCI, which could be applicable to patients unable to answer usual questionnaires. Fifty-four patients with first-ever ischemic stroke, without cardiac arrhythmia, were assessed for resting HR and heart rate variability (HRV) within the first week after stroke and for depression and cognition during the first week and at 3 months after stroke. Multiple regression analyses controlled for age, gender, and stroke severity revealed that higher HR, lower HRV, and higher sympathovagal balance (low-frequency/high-frequency ratio of HRV) were associated with higher severity of depressive symptoms within the first week after stroke. Furthermore, higher sympathovagal balance in early phase predicted higher severity of depressive symptoms at the 3-month follow-up, whereas higher HR and lower HRV in early phase predicted lower global cognitive functioning at the 3-month follow-up. Resting HR measurements obtained in early poststroke phase could serve as an objective tool, applicable to patients unable to complete questionnaires, to help in the early prediction of PSD and PSCI. Copyright © 2017 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Fine Motor Skills Predict Maths Ability Better than They Predict Reading Ability in the Early Primary School Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitchford, Nicola J.; Papini, Chiara; Outhwaite, Laura A.; Gulliford, Anthea

    2016-01-01

    Fine motor skills have long been recognized as an important foundation for development in other domains. However, more precise insights into the role of fine motor skills, and their relationships to other skills in mediating early educational achievements, are needed to support the development of optimal educational interventions. We explored concurrent relationships between two components of fine motor skills, Fine Motor Precision and Fine Motor Integration, and early reading and maths development in two studies with primary school children of low-to-mid socio-economic status in the UK. Two key findings were revealed. First, despite being in the first 2 years of primary school education, significantly better performance was found in reading compared to maths across both studies. This may reflect the protective effects of recent national-level interventions to promote early literacy skills in young children in the UK that have not been similarly promoted for maths. Second, fine motor skills were a better predictor of early maths ability than they were of early reading ability. Hierarchical multiple regression revealed that fine motor skills did not significantly predict reading ability when verbal short-term memory was taken into account. In contrast, Fine Motor Integration remained a significant predictor of maths ability, even after the influence of non-verbal IQ had been accounted for. These results suggest that fine motor skills should have a pivotal role in educational interventions designed to support the development of early mathematical skills. PMID:27303342

  16. Fine motor skills predict maths ability better than they predict reading ability in the early primary school years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicola J. Pitchford

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Fine motor skills have long been recognised as an important foundation for development in other domains. However, more precise insights into the role of fine motor skills, and their relationships to other skills in mediating early educational achievements, are needed to support the development of optimal educational interventions. We explored concurrent relationships between two components of fine motor skills, Fine Motor Precision and Fine Motor Integration, and early reading and maths development in two studies with primary school children of low-to-mid socio-economic status in the U.K. Two key findings were revealed. First, despite being in the first two years of primary school education, significantly better performance was found in reading compared to maths across both studies. This may reflect the protective effects of recent national-level interventions to promote early literacy skills in young children in the U.K. that have not been similarly promoted for maths. Second, fine motor skills were a better predictor of early maths ability than they were of early reading ability. Hierarchical multiple regression revealed that fine motor skills did not significantly predict reading ability when verbal short-term memory was taken into account. In contrast, Fine Motor Integration remained a significant predictor of maths ability, even after the influence of non-verbal IQ had been accounted for. These results suggest that fine motor skills should have a pivotal role in educational interventions designed to support the development of early mathematical skills.

  17. Fine Motor Skills Predict Maths Ability Better than They Predict Reading Ability in the Early Primary School Years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitchford, Nicola J; Papini, Chiara; Outhwaite, Laura A; Gulliford, Anthea

    2016-01-01

    Fine motor skills have long been recognized as an important foundation for development in other domains. However, more precise insights into the role of fine motor skills, and their relationships to other skills in mediating early educational achievements, are needed to support the development of optimal educational interventions. We explored concurrent relationships between two components of fine motor skills, Fine Motor Precision and Fine Motor Integration, and early reading and maths development in two studies with primary school children of low-to-mid socio-economic status in the UK. Two key findings were revealed. First, despite being in the first 2 years of primary school education, significantly better performance was found in reading compared to maths across both studies. This may reflect the protective effects of recent national-level interventions to promote early literacy skills in young children in the UK that have not been similarly promoted for maths. Second, fine motor skills were a better predictor of early maths ability than they were of early reading ability. Hierarchical multiple regression revealed that fine motor skills did not significantly predict reading ability when verbal short-term memory was taken into account. In contrast, Fine Motor Integration remained a significant predictor of maths ability, even after the influence of non-verbal IQ had been accounted for. These results suggest that fine motor skills should have a pivotal role in educational interventions designed to support the development of early mathematical skills.

  18. Early prediction of post-thyroidectomy hypocalcemia by early parathyroid hormone measurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yetkin, Gurkan; Citgez, Bulent; Yazici, Pinar; Mihmanli, Mehmet; Sit, Erhan; Uludag, Mehmet

    2016-01-01

    Hypoparathyroidism is the most common complication of total thyroidectomy (TT). Postthyroidectomy hypocalcemia occurs 24 to 48 hours after the operation. It prolongs the length of hospital stay, even though transient in most cases. The aim of this study was to predetermine the patients who may develop postthyroidectomy hypocalcemia by using early postoperative serum intact parathormone (iPTH) and calcium (Ca2+) measurements, and to investigate the effects of early initiated oral calcium and vitamin D treatments on the development of transient hypocalcemia. Patients who underwent TT after initiation of the early iPTH measurement protocol in January 2013 were included into the study group (Group 1, n=202). The control group (Group 2) was composed of 72 patients who underwent TT before the protocol. Prior to the initiation of the protocol, Ca2+ was measured instead of iPTH. In the study group, the serum Ca2+ and iPTH levels were measured before surgery, and 1 and 24-hours after. A calcium level below 8 mg/dL was accepted as biochemical hypocalcaemia, and a iPTH level under 15pg/mL was accepted as hypoparathyroidism. In the study group, patients with below normal iPTH levels were treated with prophylactic oral calcium and vitamin D. In Group 1, 15.8% (n=32) of the patients had hypoparathyroidism on the 1h and 24 h iPTH measurements. There was no statistically difference with regard to PTH levels measured in the postoperative 1st hour and at the 24th hour (p= 0.078). Biochemical hypocalcaemia developed in 16 (7.9%) and 13 (18%) patients in Groups 1 and 2, respectively, 24 hours after thyroidectomy (peffective management of plausible postthyroidectomic hypocalcemia. It yields significantly shorter hospital stay periods. Calcium, Hypoparathyroidism, Postoperative complication, Total thyroidectomy.

  19. Early Executive Function at Age Two Predicts Emergent Mathematics and Literacy at Age Five.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulder, Hanna; Verhagen, Josje; Van der Ven, Sanne H G; Slot, Pauline L; Leseman, Paul P M

    2017-01-01

    Previous work has shown that individual differences in executive function (EF) are predictive of academic skills in preschoolers, kindergartners, and older children. Across studies, EF is a stronger predictor of emergent mathematics than literacy. However, research on EF in children below age three is scarce, and it is currently unknown whether EF, as assessed in toddlerhood, predicts emergent academic skills a few years later. This longitudinal study investigates whether early EF, assessed at two years, predicts (emergent) academic skills, at five years. It examines, furthermore, whether early EF is a significantly stronger predictor of emergent mathematics than of emergent literacy, as has been found in previous work on older children. A sample of 552 children was assessed on various EF and EF-precursor tasks at two years. At age five, these children performed several emergent mathematics and literacy tasks. Structural Equation Modeling was used to investigate the relationships between early EF and academic skills, modeled as latent factors. Results showed that early EF at age two was a significant and relatively strong predictor of both emergent mathematics and literacy at age five, after controlling for receptive vocabulary, parental education, and home language. Predictive relations were significantly stronger for mathematics than literacy, but only when a verbal short-term memory measure was left out as an indicator to the latent early EF construct. These findings show that individual differences in emergent academic skills just prior to entry into the formal education system can be traced back to individual differences in early EF in toddlerhood. In addition, these results highlight the importance of task selection when assessing early EF as a predictor of later outcomes, and call for further studies to elucidate the mechanisms through which individual differences in early EF and precursors to EF come about.

  20. Early Executive Function at Age Two Predicts Emergent Mathematics and Literacy at Age Five

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanna Mulder

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Previous work has shown that individual differences in executive function (EF are predictive of academic skills in preschoolers, kindergartners, and older children. Across studies, EF is a stronger predictor of emergent mathematics than literacy. However, research on EF in children below age three is scarce, and it is currently unknown whether EF, as assessed in toddlerhood, predicts emergent academic skills a few years later. This longitudinal study investigates whether early EF, assessed at two years, predicts (emergent academic skills, at five years. It examines, furthermore, whether early EF is a significantly stronger predictor of emergent mathematics than of emergent literacy, as has been found in previous work on older children. A sample of 552 children was assessed on various EF and EF-precursor tasks at two years. At age five, these children performed several emergent mathematics and literacy tasks. Structural Equation Modeling was used to investigate the relationships between early EF and academic skills, modeled as latent factors. Results showed that early EF at age two was a significant and relatively strong predictor of both emergent mathematics and literacy at age five, after controlling for receptive vocabulary, parental education, and home language. Predictive relations were significantly stronger for mathematics than literacy, but only when a verbal short-term memory measure was left out as an indicator to the latent early EF construct. These findings show that individual differences in emergent academic skills just prior to entry into the formal education system can be traced back to individual differences in early EF in toddlerhood. In addition, these results highlight the importance of task selection when assessing early EF as a predictor of later outcomes, and call for further studies to elucidate the mechanisms through which individual differences in early EF and precursors to EF come about.

  1. Which behavioral, emotional and school problems in middle-childhood predict early sexual behavior?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkes, Alison; Waylen, Andrea; Sayal, Kapil; Heron, Jon; Henderson, Marion; Wight, Daniel; Macleod, John

    2014-04-01

    Mental health and school adjustment problems are thought to distinguish early sexual behavior from normative timing (16-18 years), but little is known about how early sexual behavior originates from these problems in middle-childhood. Existing studies do not allow for co-occurring problems, differences in onset and persistence, and there is no information on middle-childhood school adjustment in relationship to early sexual activity. This study examined associations between several middle-childhood problems and early sexual behavior, using a subsample (N = 4,739, 53 % female, 98 % white, mean age 15 years 6 months) from a birth cohort study, the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Adolescents provided information at age 15 on early sexual behavior (oral sex and/or intercourse) and sexual risk-taking, and at age 13 on prior risk involvement (sexual behavior, antisocial behavior and substance use). Information on hyperactivity/inattention, conduct problems, depressive symptoms, peer relationship problems, school dislike and school performance was collected in middle-childhood at Time 1 (6-8 years) and Time 2 (10-11 years). In agreement with previous research, conduct problems predicted early sexual behavior, although this was found only for persistent early problems. In addition, Time 2 school dislike predicted early sexual behavior, while peer relationship problems were protective. Persistent early school dislike further characterized higher-risk groups (early sexual behavior preceded by age 13 risk, or accompanied by higher sexual risk-taking). The study establishes middle-childhood school dislike as a novel risk factor for early sexual behavior and higher-risk groups, and the importance of persistent conduct problems. Implications for the identification of children at risk and targeted intervention are discussed, as well as suggestions for further research.

  2. Predictive information processing is a fundamental learning mechanism present in early development: evidence from infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trainor, Laurel J

    2012-02-01

    Evidence is presented that predictive coding is fundamental to brain function and present in early infancy. Indeed, mismatch responses to unexpected auditory stimuli are among the earliest robust cortical event-related potential responses, and have been measured in young infants in response to many types of deviation, including in pitch, timing, and melodic pattern. Furthermore, mismatch responses change quickly with specific experience, suggesting that predictive coding reflects a powerful, early-developing learning mechanism. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Seismogeodesy for rapid earthquake and tsunami characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Rapid estimation of earthquake magnitude and fault mechanism is critical for earthquake and tsunami warning systems. Traditionally, the monitoring of earthquakes and tsunamis has been based on seismic networks for estimating earthquake magnitude and slip, and tide gauges and deep-ocean buoys for direct measurement of tsunami waves. These methods are well developed for ocean basin-wide warnings but are not timely enough to protect vulnerable populations and infrastructure from the effects of local tsunamis, where waves may arrive within 15-30 minutes of earthquake onset time. Direct measurements of displacements by GPS networks at subduction zones allow for rapid magnitude and slip estimation in the near-source region, that are not affected by instrumental limitations and magnitude saturation experienced by local seismic networks. However, GPS displacements by themselves are too noisy for strict earthquake early warning (P-wave detection). Optimally combining high-rate GPS and seismic data (in particular, accelerometers that do not clip), referred to as seismogeodesy, provides a broadband instrument that does not clip in the near field, is impervious to magnitude saturation, and provides accurate real-time static and dynamic displacements and velocities in real time. Here we describe a NASA-funded effort to integrate GPS and seismogeodetic observations as part of NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii. It consists of a series of plug-in modules that allow for a hierarchy of rapid seismogeodetic products, including automatic P-wave picking, hypocenter estimation, S-wave prediction, magnitude scaling relationships based on P-wave amplitude (Pd) and peak ground displacement (PGD), finite-source CMT solutions and fault slip models as input for tsunami warnings and models. For the NOAA/NASA project, the modules are being integrated into an existing USGS Earthworm environment, currently limited to traditional seismic data. We are focused on a network of

  4. The EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory and allied networks, the makings of nascent Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning System in Western North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattioli, Glen; Mencin, David; Hodgkinson, Kathleen; Meertens, Charles; Phillips, David; Blume, Fredrick; Berglund, Henry; Fox, Otina; Feaux, Karl

    2016-04-01

    The NSF-funded GAGE Facility, managed by UNAVCO, operates approximately ~1300 GNSS stations distributed across North and Central America and in the circum-Caribbean. Following community input starting in 2011 from several workshops and associated reports,UNAVCO has been exploring ways to increase the capability and utility of the geodetic resources under its management to improve our understanding in diverse areas of geophysics including properties of seismic, volcanic, magmatic and tsunami deformation sources. Networks operated by UNAVCO for the NSF have the potential to profoundly transform our ability to rapidly characterize events, provide rapid characterization and warning, as well as improve hazard mitigation and response. Specific applications currently under development include earthquake early warning, tsunami early warning, and tropospheric modeling with university, commercial, non-profit and government partners on national and international scales. In the case of tsunami early warning, for example, an RT-GNSS network can provide multiple inputs in an operational system starting with rapid assessment of earthquake sources and associated deformation, which leads to the initial model of ocean forcing and tsunami generation. In addition, terrestrial GNSScan provide direct measurements of the tsunami through the associated traveling ionospheric disturbance from several 100's of km away as they approach the shoreline,which can be used to refine tsunami inundation models. Any operational system like this has multiple communities that rely on a pan-Pacific real-time open data set. Other scientific and operational applications for high-rate GPS include glacier and ice sheet motions, tropospheric modeling, and better constraints on the dynamics of space weather. Combining existing data sets and user communities, for example seismic data and tide gauge observations, with GNSS and Met data products has proven complicated because of issues related to metadata

  5. Flow Test to Predict Early Hypotony and Hypertensive Phase After Ahmed Glaucoma Valve (AGV) Surgical Implantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Jason; Beltran-Agullo, Laura; Buys, Yvonne M; Moss, Edward B; Gonzalez, Johanna; Trope, Graham E

    2016-06-01

    To assess the validity of a preimplantation flow test to predict early hypotony [intraocular pressure (IOP)≤5 mm Hg on 2 consecutive visits and hypertensive phase (HP) (IOP>21 mm Hg) after Ahmed Glaucoma Valve (AGV) implantation. Prospective interventional study on patients receiving an AGV. A preimplantation flow test using a gravity-driven reservoir and an open manometer was performed on all AGVs. Opening pressure (OP) and closing pressure (CP) were defined as the pressure at which fluid was seen to flow or stop flowing through the AGV, respectively. OP and CP were measured twice per AGV. Patients were followed for 12 weeks. In total, 20 eyes from 19 patients were enrolled. At 12 weeks the mean IOP decreased from 29.2±9.1 to 16.8±5.2 mm Hg (P<0.01). The mean AGV OP was 17.5±5.4 mm Hg and the mean CP was 6.7±2.3 mm Hg. Early (within 2 wk postoperative) HP occurred in 37% and hypotony in 16% of cases. An 18 mm Hg cutoff for the OP gave a sensitivity of 0.71, specificity of 0.83, positive predictive value of 0.71, and negative predictive value of 0.83 for predicting an early HP. A 7 mm Hg cutoff for the CP yielded a sensitivity of 1.0, specificity of 0.38, positive predictive value of 0.23, and negative predictive value of 1.0 for predicting hypotony. Preoperative OP and CP may predict early hypotony or HP and may be used as a guide as to which AGV valves to discard before implantation surgery.

  6. Identification of a Genomic Signature Predicting for Recurrence in Early Stage Ovarian Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    do it. Thus, instead of simply sequencing all the FFPE samples, we used 10 tumor samples (5 recurrent and 5 non recurrent ) to test sequencing and...Award Number: W81XWH-12-1-0521 TITLE: Identification of a Genomic Signature Predicting for Recurrence in Early-Stage Ovarian Cancer PRINCIPAL...4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER W81XWH-12-1-0521 Identification of a Genomic Signature Predicting for Recurrence in

  7. Predicting the liquefaction phenomena from shear velocity profiling: Empirical approach to 6.3 Mw, May 2006 Yogyakarta earthquake

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartantyo, Eddy, E-mail: hartantyo@ugm.ac.id [PhD student, Physics Department, FMIPA, UGM. Sekip Utara Yogyakarta 55281 Indonesia (Indonesia); Brotopuspito, Kirbani S.; Sismanto; Waluyo [Geophysics Laboratory, FMIPA, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Sekip Utara Yogyakarta 55281 (Indonesia)

    2015-04-24

    The liquefactions phenomena have been reported after a shocking 6.5Mw earthquake hit Yogyakarta province in the morning at 27 May 2006. Several researchers have reported the damage, casualties, and soil failure due to the quake, including the mapping and analyzing the liquefaction phenomena. Most of them based on SPT test. The study try to draw the liquefaction susceptibility by means the shear velocity profiling using modified Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves (MASW). This paper is a preliminary report by using only several measured MASW points. The study built 8-channel seismic data logger with 4.5 Hz geophones for this purpose. Several different offsets used to record the high and low frequencies of surface waves. The phase-velocity diagrams were stacked in the frequency domain rather than in time domain, for a clearer and easier dispersion curve picking. All codes are implementing in Matlab. From these procedures, shear velocity profiling was collected beneath each geophone’s spread. By mapping the minimum depth of shallow water table, calculating PGA with soil classification, using empirical formula for saturated soil weight from shear velocity profile, and calculating CRR and CSR at every depth, the liquefaction characteristic can be identify in every layer. From several acquired data, a liquefiable potential at some depth below water table was obtained.

  8. Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes

    OpenAIRE

    Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

    2016-01-01

    Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of th...

  9. Decoding the future from past experience: learning shapes predictions in early visual cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luft, Caroline D B; Meeson, Alan; Welchman, Andrew E; Kourtzi, Zoe

    2015-05-01

    Learning the structure of the environment is critical for interpreting the current scene and predicting upcoming events. However, the brain mechanisms that support our ability to translate knowledge about scene statistics to sensory predictions remain largely unknown. Here we provide evidence that learning of temporal regularities shapes representations in early visual cortex that relate to our ability to predict sensory events. We tested the participants' ability to predict the orientation of a test stimulus after exposure to sequences of leftward- or rightward-oriented gratings. Using fMRI decoding, we identified brain patterns related to the observers' visual predictions rather than stimulus-driven activity. Decoding of predicted orientations following structured sequences was enhanced after training, while decoding of cued orientations following exposure to random sequences did not change. These predictive representations appear to be driven by the same large-scale neural populations that encode actual stimulus orientation and to be specific to the learned sequence structure. Thus our findings provide evidence that learning temporal structures supports our ability to predict future events by reactivating selective sensory representations as early as in primary visual cortex. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

  10. Predictive coding accelerates word recognition and learning in the early stages of language development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ylinen, Sari; Bosseler, Alexis; Junttila, Katja; Huotilainen, Minna

    2017-11-01

    The ability to predict future events in the environment and learn from them is a fundamental component of adaptive behavior across species. Here we propose that inferring predictions facilitates speech processing and word learning in the early stages of language development. Twelve- and 24-month olds' electrophysiological brain responses to heard syllables are faster and more robust when the preceding word context predicts the ending of a familiar word. For unfamiliar, novel word forms, however, word-expectancy violation generates a prediction error response, the strength of which significantly correlates with children's vocabulary scores at 12 months. These results suggest that predictive coding may accelerate word recognition and support early learning of novel words, including not only the learning of heard word forms but also their mapping to meanings. Prediction error may mediate learning via attention, since infants' attention allocation to the entire learning situation in natural environments could account for the link between prediction error and the understanding of word meanings. On the whole, the present results on predictive coding support the view that principles of brain function reported across domains in humans and non-human animals apply to language and its development in the infant brain. A video abstract of this article can be viewed at: http://hy.fi/unitube/video/e1cbb495-41d8-462e-8660-0864a1abd02c. [Correction added on 27 January 2017, after first online publication: The video abstract link was added.]. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Early fibrinogen degradation coagulopathy: a predictive factor of parenchymal hematomas in cerebral rt-PA thrombolysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xuhong; Berthiller, Julien; Trouillas, Paul; Derex, Laurent; Diallo, Laho; Hanss, Michel

    2015-04-15

    The purpose of this study was to systematically determine the correlations between the post-thrombolytic changes of hemostasis parameters and the occurrence of early intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). In 72 consecutive patients with cerebral infarcts treated with rt-PA, plasma levels of fibrinogen, plasminogen, alpha2-antiplasmin, factor XIII, fibrin(ogen) degradation products (FDPs) and d-Dimers were measured at baseline, 2 and 24h after thrombolysis. Correlations were studied between the hemostasis events and early (less than 24h) hemorrhagic infarcts (HIs) or parenchymatous hematomas (PH). Of 72 patients, 6 patients (8.3%) had early PHs, 11 (15.3%) had early HIs, and 55 (76.4%) had no bleeding. Early HIs were not linked to any hemostasis parameter at any time. Univariate comparison of patients having early PHs with non-bleeding patients showed hemostasis abnormalities at 2h: high FDP (p=0.01), high Log FDP (p=0.01), low fibrinogen (p=0.01), and low Log fibrinogen (p=0.01). Logistic regression adjusted for age, NIHSS and diabetes confirmed these 2hour predictors: Log FDP (OR: 7.50; CI: 1.26 to 44.61, p=0.03), and Log fibrinogen (OR: 19.32; CI: 1.81 to 205.98, p=0.01). The decrease in fibrinogen less than 2g/L multiplies the odds of early PH by a factor 12.82. An early fibrinogen degradation coagulopathy involving an increase of FDP and a massive consumption of circulating fibrinogen is predictive of early parenchymal hematomas, indicating the occurrence of a particularly intense lysis of circulating fibrinogen. These results, if confirmed by future studies, suggest that early assays of fibrinogen and FDP may be useful in predicting the risk of post-thrombolytic intracerebral hematoma. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Early functional MRI activation predicts motor outcome after ischemic stroke: a longitudinal, multimodal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Juan; Yang, Fang; Zhang, Zhiqiang; Hu, Jingze; Xu, Qiang; Hu, Jianping; Zeng, Fanyong; Lu, Guangming; Liu, Xinfeng

    2018-05-15

    An accurate prediction of long term outcome after stroke is urgently required to provide early individualized neurorehabilitation. This study aimed to examine the added value of early neuroimaging measures and identify the best approaches for predicting motor outcome after stroke. This prospective study involved 34 first-ever ischemic stroke patients (time since stroke: 1-14 days) with upper limb impairment. All patients underwent baseline multimodal assessments that included clinical (age, motor impairment), neurophysiological (motor-evoked potentials, MEP) and neuroimaging (diffusion tensor imaging and motor task-based fMRI) measures, and also underwent reassessment 3 months after stroke. Bivariate analysis and multivariate linear regression models were used to predict the motor scores (Fugl-Meyer assessment, FMA) at 3 months post-stroke. With bivariate analysis, better motor outcome significantly correlated with (1) less initial motor impairment and disability, (2) less corticospinal tract injury, (3) the initial presence of MEPs, (4) stronger baseline motor fMRI activations. In multivariate analysis, incorporating neuroimaging data improved the predictive accuracy relative to only clinical and neurophysiological assessments. Baseline fMRI activation in SMA was an independent predictor of motor outcome after stroke. A multimodal model incorporating fMRI and clinical measures best predicted the motor outcome following stroke. fMRI measures obtained early after stroke provided independent prediction of long-term motor outcome.

  13. Early Family System Types Predict Children's Emotional Attention Biases at School Age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindblom, Jallu; Peltola, Mikko J.; Vänskä, Mervi; Hietanen, Jari K.; Laakso, Anu; Tiitinen, Aila; Tulppala, Maija; Punamäki, Raija-Leena

    2017-01-01

    The family environment shapes children's social information processing and emotion regulation. Yet, the long-term effects of early family systems have rarely been studied. This study investigated how family system types predict children's attentional biases toward facial expressions at the age of 10 years. The participants were 79 children from…

  14. Burn! How implicit and explicit evaluation predict early adolescents' "hot sauce" aggression towards classroom peers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lansu, T.A.M.

    2018-01-01

    The current study examined to what extent early adolescents' implicit and explicit evaluations of a classmate predict (a) their own aggressive behavior toward that classmate and (b) their classmate's aggressive behavior toward them. Implicit and explicit peer evaluations were assessed among 148

  15. Identification and Prediction of Drinking Trajectories in Early and Mid-Adolescence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vorst, H. van der; Vermulst, A.A.; Meeus, W.H.J.; Dekovic, M.; Engels, R.C.M.E.

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this study was to identify subgroups of early and mid-adolescents with different drinking trajectories. In addition, we examined whether gender, parental, and peer factors predicted adolescents' membership of these drinking trajectories. We used longitudinal data of 428 families (fathers,

  16. Predictive value of early near-infrared spectroscopy monitoring of patients with traumatic brain injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alina Vilkė

    2014-01-01

    Conclusions: NIRS plays an important role in the clinical care of TBI patients. Regional brain saturation monitoring provides accurate predictive data, which can improve the allocation of scarce medical resources, set the treatment goals and alleviate the early communication with patients’ relatives.

  17. How to diagnose rheumatoid arthritis early: a prediction model for persistent (erosive) arthritis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, Henk; le Cessie, Saskia; Vos, Koen; Breedveld, Ferdinand C.; Hazes, Johanna M. W.

    2002-01-01

    To develop a clinical model for the prediction, at the first visit, of 3 forms of arthritis outcome: self-limiting, persistent nonerosive, and persistent erosive arthritis. A standardized diagnostic evaluation was performed on 524 consecutive, newly referred patients with early arthritis.

  18. Parenting and Child Characteristics in the Prediction of Shame in Early and Middle Childhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, Rosemary S. L.; Arbeau, Kimberley A.; Lall, Debra I. K.; De Jaeger, Amy E.

    2010-01-01

    We examined individual differences in shame responding in early childhood and predictive relations with shame proneness in middle childhood. Child shame responding, parental shaming, and child temperamental inhibition were assessed at Time 1 (n = 225, aged 3-4 years), shame responding was reassessed at Time 2 (n = 199, aged 5-7 years), and shame…

  19. Predicting marital satisfaction on the basis of early maladaptive schema in married women, Tehran, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saeed Seyed Esmaili

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Early maladaptive schemes are cognitive, emotional and self-injurious patterns repeated throughout the life. Family is a natural social system in which couples have major role in the all of stages of its development, and many factors play a role in their marital satisfaction. Marital satisfaction is adopting expectations of couples of marital life. The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between early maladaptive scheme with marital satisfaction and identification of predicting factors on marital satisfaction. This was a correlational cross-sectional method study. The population includes all married female persons referring to Tehran municipal regions. We used early maladaptive schemas questionnaire and Enrich marital satisfaction questionnaire for evaluation in participants. Descriptive tests, Pearson correlation test, T-Test, One Way ANOVA Test and Multivariate Regression Test were used for description and analysis of data. The mean age of samples in this study was 31.60±5.12 years old. There was significant relationship between age with Dependence/Incompetence (P=0.033, Self-sacrifice (P=0.010, Entitlement/Grandiosity (P=0.042, Impaired autonomy and performance (P=0.019, Abandonment/Instability (P=0.007. Linear regression analysis showed emotional deprivation and unrelenting standards/hypocriticalness subscales can predict marital satisfaction adversely. They can predict significantly 26% of marital satisfaction changes (P<0.001. we concluded that early maladaptive schema can predict the marital satisfaction negatively and of important role in its improvement or regression.

  20. Identification and Prediction of Drinking Trajectories in Early and Mid-Adolescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Der Vorst, Haske; Vermulst, Ad A.; Meeus, Wim H. J.; Dekovic, Maja; Engels, Rutger C. M. E.

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this study was to identify subgroups of early and mid-adolescents with different drinking trajectories. In addition, we examined whether gender, parental, and peer factors predicted adolescents' membership of these drinking trajectories. We used longitudinal data of 428 families (fathers, mothers, mid-adolescents, and their younger…

  1. Early Findings of Preventive Child Healthcare Professionals Predict Psychosocial Problems in Preadolescence : The TRAILS Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jaspers, M.; de Winter, A.F.; de Meer, G.; Stewart, R.E.; Verhulst, F.C.; Ormel, J.; Reijneveld, S.A.

    Objective To develop and validate a prediction model for psychosocial problems in preadolescence using data on early developmental factors from routine Preventive Child Healthcare (PCH). Study design The data come from the 1692 participants who take part in the TRacking Adolescents' Individual Lives

  2. Early Findings of Preventive Child Healthcare Professionals Predict Psychosocial Problems in Preadolescence: The TRAILS Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jaspers, M.; De Winter, A.F.; de Meer, G.; Stewart, R.E; Verhulst, F.C.; Ormel, J.; Reijneveld, S.A.

    2010-01-01

    Objective To develop and validate a prediction model for psychosocial problems in preadolescence using data on early developmental factors from routine Preventive Child Healthcare (PCH). Study design The data come from the 1692 participants who take part in the TRacking Adolescents' Individual Lives

  3. Early prediction of favourable recovery 6 months after mild traumatic brain injury.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stulemeijer, M.; Werf, S.P. van der; Borm, G.F.; Vos, P.E.

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Predicting outcome after mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI) is notoriously difficult. Although it is recognised that milder head injuries do not necessarily mean better outcomes, less is known about the factors that do enable early identification of patients who are likely to recover

  4. M-ficolin levels reflect disease activity and predict remission in early rheumatoid arthritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ammitzbøll, Christian Gytz; Thiel, Steffen; Jensenius, Jens Christian

    2013-01-01

    To assess plasma M-ficolin concentrations in disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD)-naive patients with early rheumatoid arthritis (RA), to investigate the correlation of M-ficolin concentrations with disease activity markers, and to determine the predictive value of M-ficolin with respect...... to the Disease Activity Score in 28 joints (DAS28)....

  5. Predicting Early School Achievement with the EDI: A Longitudinal Population-Based Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forget-Dubois, Nadine; Lemelin, Jean-Pascal; Boivin, Michel; Dionne, Ginette; Seguin, Jean R.; Vitaro, Frank; Tremblay, Richard E.

    2007-01-01

    School readiness tests are significant predictors of early school achievement. Measuring school readiness on a large scale would be necessary for the implementation of intervention programs at the community level. However, assessment of school readiness is costly and time consuming. This study assesses the predictive value of a school readiness…

  6. Prediction of Early Response to Chemotherapy in Lung Cancer by Using Diffusion-Weighted MR Imaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Yu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. To determine whether change of apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC value could predict early response to chemotherapy in lung cancer. Materials and Methods. Twenty-five patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer underwent chest MR imaging including DWI before and at the end of the first cycle of chemotherapy. The tumor’s mean ADC value and diameters on MR images were calculated and compared. The grouping reference was based on serial CT scans according to Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors. Logistic regression was applied to assess treatment response prediction ability of ADC value and diameters. Results. The change of ADC value in partial response group was higher than that in stable disease group (P=0.004. ROC curve showed that ADC value could predict treatment response with 100% sensitivity, 64.71% specificity, 57.14% positive predictive value, 100% negative predictive value, and 82.7% accuracy. The area under the curve for combination of ADC value and longest diameter change was higher than any parameter alone (P≤0.01. Conclusions. The change of ADC value may be a sensitive indicator to predict early response to chemotherapy in lung cancer. Prediction ability could be improved by combining the change of ADC value and longest diameter.

  7. Patient factors predicting early dropout from psychiatric outpatient care for borderline personality disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Panfilis, Chiara; Marchesi, Carlo; Cabrino, Chiara; Monici, Alberto; Politi, Virginia; Rossi, Matteo; Maggini, Carlo

    2012-12-30

    Despite obvious clinical need, factors underlying early treatment discontinuation among 'real world' borderline personality disorder (BPD) patients are still unknown. This study investigates individual characteristics that can predict early (Disorders, fourth edition (DSM-IV) Personality. Sociodemographic, clinical and personality variables potentially relevant for dropout were assessed for all participants at baseline. Early dropouts (n=54) were compared to continuers (n=108) on all measures. Logistic regression was then used to identify independent predictors of early dropout. A history of suicide attempts predicted early discontinuation, whereas the presence of an eating disorder and of avoidant personality features protected from early dropout. If confirmed, these findings may help clinicians operating in general psychiatric settings with estimating the risk of premature treatment discontinuation, and stress the need to specifically address suicidal behaviours in order to improve treatment retention among borderline outpatients. In this regard, implementing general psychiatric care with specialised, evidence-based psychotherapeutic interventions may be deemed necessary. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Analysis, prediction, and case studies of early-age cracking in bridge decks

    Science.gov (United States)

    ElSafty, Adel; Graeff, Matthew K.; El-Gharib, Georges; Abdel-Mohti, Ahmed; Mike Jackson, N.

    2016-06-01

    Early-age cracking can adversely affect strength, serviceability, and durability of concrete bridge decks. Early age is defined as the period after final setting, during which concrete properties change rapidly. Many factors can cause early-age bridge deck cracking including temperature change, hydration, plastic shrinkage, autogenous shrinkage, and drying shrinkage. The cracking may also increase the effect of freeze and thaw cycles and may lead to corrosion of reinforcement. This research paper presents an analysis of causes and factors affecting early-age cracking. It also provides a tool developed to predict the likelihood and initiation of early-age cracking of concrete bridge decks. Understanding the concrete properties is essential so that the developed tool can accurately model the mechanisms contributing to the cracking of concrete bridge decks. The user interface of the implemented computer Excel program enables the user to input the properties of the concrete being monitored. The research study and the developed spreadsheet were used to comprehensively investigate the issue of concrete deck cracking. The spreadsheet is designed to be a user-friendly calculation tool for concrete mixture proportioning, temperature prediction, thermal analysis, and tensile cracking prediction. The study also provides review and makes recommendations on the deck cracking based mainly on the Florida Department of Transportation specifications and Structures Design Guidelines, and Bridge Design Manuals of other states. The results were also compared with that of other commercially available software programs that predict early-age cracking in concrete slabs, concrete pavement, and reinforced concrete bridge decks. The outcome of this study can identify a set of recommendations to limit the deck cracking problem and maintain a longer service life of bridges.

  9. Method for simulating predictive control of building systems operation in the early stages of building design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Steffen; Svendsen, Svend

    2011-01-01

    A method for simulating predictive control of building systems operation in the early stages of building design is presented. The method uses building simulation based on weather forecasts to predict whether there is a future heating or cooling requirement. This information enables the thermal...... control systems of the building to respond proactively to keep the operational temperature within the thermal comfort range with the minimum use of energy. The method is implemented in an existing building simulation tool designed to inform decisions in the early stages of building design through...... parametric analysis. This enables building designers to predict the performance of the method and include it as a part of the solution space. The method furthermore facilitates the task of configuring appropriate building systems control schemes in the tool, and it eliminates time consuming manual...

  10. Earthquake forewarning in the Cascadia region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomberg, Joan S.; Atwater, Brian F.; Beeler, Nicholas M.; Bodin, Paul; Davis, Earl; Frankel, Arthur; Hayes, Gavin P.; McConnell, Laura; Melbourne, Tim; Oppenheimer, David H.; Parrish, John G.; Roeloffs, Evelyn A.; Rogers, Gary D.; Sherrod, Brian; Vidale, John; Walsh, Timothy J.; Weaver, Craig S.; Whitmore, Paul M.

    2015-08-10

    This report, prepared for the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC), is intended as a step toward improving communications about earthquake hazards between information providers and users who coordinate emergency-response activities in the Cascadia region of the Pacific Northwest. NEPEC charged a subcommittee of scientists with writing this report about forewarnings of increased probabilities of a damaging earthquake. We begin by clarifying some terminology; a “prediction” refers to a deterministic statement that a particular future earthquake will or will not occur. In contrast to the 0- or 100-percent likelihood of a deterministic prediction, a “forecast” describes the probability of an earthquake occurring, which may range from >0 to processes or conditions, which may include Increased rates of M>4 earthquakes on the plate interface north of the Mendocino region 

  11. Early hospital mortality prediction of intensive care unit patients using an ensemble learning approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awad, Aya; Bader-El-Den, Mohamed; McNicholas, James; Briggs, Jim

    2017-12-01

    Mortality prediction of hospitalized patients is an important problem. Over the past few decades, several severity scoring systems and machine learning mortality prediction models have been developed for predicting hospital mortality. By contrast, early mortality prediction for intensive care unit patients remains an open challenge. Most research has focused on severity of illness scoring systems or data mining (DM) models designed for risk estimation at least 24 or 48h after ICU admission. This study highlights the main data challenges in early mortality prediction in ICU patients and introduces a new machine learning based framework for Early Mortality Prediction for Intensive Care Unit patients (EMPICU). The proposed method is evaluated on the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care II (MIMIC-II) database. Mortality prediction models are developed for patients at the age of 16 or above in Medical ICU (MICU), Surgical ICU (SICU) or Cardiac Surgery Recovery Unit (CSRU). We employ the ensemble learning Random Forest (RF), the predictive Decision Trees (DT), the probabilistic Naive Bayes (NB) and the rule-based Projective Adaptive Resonance Theory (PART) models. The primary outcome was hospital mortality. The explanatory variables included demographic, physiological, vital signs and laboratory test variables. Performance measures were calculated using cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) to minimize bias. 11,722 patients with single ICU stays are considered. Only patients at the age of 16 years old and above in Medical ICU (MICU), Surgical ICU (SICU) or Cardiac Surgery Recovery Unit (CSRU) are considered in this study. The proposed EMPICU framework outperformed standard scoring systems (SOFA, SAPS-I, APACHE-II, NEWS and qSOFA) in terms of AUROC and time (i.e. at 6h compared to 48h or more after admission). The results show that although there are many values missing in the first few hour of ICU admission

  12. Earthquake Facts

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... North Dakota, and Wisconsin. The core of the earth was the first internal structural element to be identified. In 1906 R.D. Oldham discovered it from his studies of earthquake records. The inner core is solid, and the outer core is liquid and so does not transmit ...

  13. Understanding Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Amanda; Gray, Ron

    2018-01-01

    December 26, 2004 was one of the deadliest days in modern history, when a 9.3 magnitude earthquake--the third largest ever recorded--struck off the coast of Sumatra in Indonesia (National Centers for Environmental Information 2014). The massive quake lasted at least 10 minutes and devastated the Indian Ocean. The quake displaced an estimated…

  14. Summary of the GK15 ground‐motion prediction equation for horizontal PGA and 5% damped PSA from shallow crustal continental earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graizer, Vladimir;; Kalkan, Erol

    2016-01-01

    We present a revised ground‐motion prediction equation (GMPE) for computing medians and standard deviations of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 5% damped pseudospectral acceleration (PSA) response ordinates of the horizontal component of randomly oriented ground motions to be used for seismic‐hazard analyses and engineering applications. This GMPE is derived from the expanded Next Generation Attenuation (NGA)‐West 1 database (see Data and Resources; Chiou et al., 2008). The revised model includes an anelastic attenuation term as a function of quality factor (Q0) to capture regional differences in far‐source (beyond 150 km) attenuation, and a new frequency‐dependent sedimentary‐basin scaling term as a function of depth to the 1.5  km/s shear‐wave velocity isosurface to improve ground‐motion predictions at sites located on deep sedimentary basins. The new Graizer–Kalkan 2015 (GK15) model, developed to be simple, is applicable for the western United States and other similar shallow crustal continental regions in active tectonic environments for earthquakes with moment magnitudes (M) 5.0–8.0, distances 0–250 km, average shear‐wave velocities in the upper 30 m (VS30) 200–1300  m/s, and spectral periods (T) 0.01–5 s. Our aleatory variability model captures interevent (between‐event) variability, which decreases with magnitude and increases with distance. The mixed‐effect residuals analysis reveals that the GK15 has no trend with respect to the independent predictor parameters. Compared to our 2007–2009 GMPE, the PGA values are very similar, whereas spectral ordinates predicted are larger at T<0.2  s and they are smaller at longer periods.

  15. Lactate clearance cut off for early mortality prediction in adult sepsis and septic shock patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinto, R.; Widodo, D.; Pohan, H. T.

    2018-03-01

    Previous lactate clearance cut off for early mortality prediction in sepsis and septic shock patient was determined by consensus from small sample size-study. We investigated the best lactate clearance cut off and its ability to predict early mortality in sepsis and septic shock patients. This cohort study was conducted in Intensive Care Unit of CiptoMangunkusumo Hospital in 2013. Patients’ lactate clearance and eight other resuscitationendpoints were recorded, and theoutcome was observed during the first 120 hours. The clearance cut off was determined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and its ability was investigated with Cox’s proportional hazard regression analysis using other resuscitation endpoints as confounders. Total of 268 subjects was included, of whom 70 (26.11%) subjects died within the first 120 hours. The area under ROC of lactate clearance to predict early mortality was 0.78 (95% % confidence interval [CI] 0.71-0.84) with best cut off was <7.5% (sensitivity and specificity 88.99% and 81.4% respectively). Compared with group achieving lactate clearance target, group not achieving lactate clearance target had to increase early mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio 13.42; 95%CI 7.19-25.07). In conclusion, the best lactate clearance cut off as anearly mortality predictor in sepsis and septic shock patients is 7.5%.

  16. Genomic Prediction of Single Crosses in the Early Stages of a Maize Hybrid Breeding Pipeline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dnyaneshwar C. Kadam

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Prediction of single-cross performance has been a major goal of plant breeders since the beginning of hybrid breeding. Recently, genomic prediction has shown to be a promising approach, but only limited studies have examined the accuracy of predicting single-cross performance. Moreover, no studies have examined the potential of predicting single crosses among random inbreds derived from a series of biparental families, which resembles the structure of germplasm comprising the initial stages of a hybrid maize breeding pipeline. The main objectives of this study were to evaluate the potential of genomic prediction for identifying superior single crosses early in the hybrid breeding pipeline and optimize its application. To accomplish these objectives, we designed and analyzed a novel population of single crosses representing the Iowa Stiff Stalk synthetic/non-Stiff Stalk heterotic pattern commonly used in the development of North American commercial maize hybrids. The performance of single crosses was predicted using parental combining ability and covariance among single crosses. Prediction accuracies were estimated using cross-validation and ranged from 0.28 to 0.77 for grain yield, 0.53 to 0.91 for plant height, and 0.49 to 0.94 for staygreen, depending on the number of tested parents of the single cross and genomic prediction method used. The genomic estimated general and specific combining abilities showed an advantage over genomic covariances among single crosses when one or both parents of the single cross were untested. Overall, our results suggest that genomic prediction of single crosses in the early stages of a hybrid breeding pipeline holds great potential to redesign hybrid breeding and increase its efficiency.

  17. Implementing a C++ Version of the Joint Seismic-Geodetic Algorithm for Finite-Fault Detection and Slip Inversion for Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, D. E.; Felizardo, C.; Minson, S. E.; Boese, M.; Langbein, J. O.; Guillemot, C.; Murray, J. R.

    2015-12-01

    The earthquake early warning (EEW) systems in California and elsewhere can greatly benefit from algorithms that generate estimates of finite-fault parameters. These estimates could significantly improve real-time shaking calculations and yield important information for immediate disaster response. Minson et al. (2015) determined that combining FinDer's seismic-based algorithm (Böse et al., 2012) with BEFORES' geodetic-based algorithm (Minson et al., 2014) yields a more robust and informative joint solution than using either algorithm alone. FinDer examines the distribution of peak ground accelerations from seismic stations and determines the best finite-fault extent and strike from template matching. BEFORES employs a Bayesian framework to search for the best slip inversion over all possible fault geometries in terms of strike and dip. Using FinDer and BEFORES together generates estimates of finite-fault extent, strike, dip, preferred slip, and magnitude. To yield the quickest, most flexible, and open-source version of the joint algorithm, we translated BEFORES and FinDer from Matlab into C++. We are now developing a C++ Application Protocol Interface for these two algorithms to be connected to the seismic and geodetic data flowing from the EEW system. The interface that is being developed will also enable communication between the two algorithms to generate the joint solution of finite-fault parameters. Once this interface is developed and implemented, the next step will be to run test seismic and geodetic data through the system via the Earthworm module, Tank Player. This will allow us to examine algorithm performance on simulated data and past real events.

  18. Clinical characteristics of patients seizure following the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inatomi, Yuichiro; Nakajima, Makoto; Yonehara, Toshiro; Ando, Yukio

    2017-06-01

    To investigate the clinical characteristics of patients with seizure following the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake. We retrospectively studied patients with seizure admitted to our hospital for 12weeks following the earthquake. We compared the clinical backgrounds and characteristics of the patients: before (the same period from the previous 3years) and after the earthquake; and the early (first 2weeks) and late (subsequent 10weeks) phases. A total of 60 patients with seizure were admitted to the emergency room after the earthquake, and 175 (58.3/year) patients were admitted before the earthquake. Of them, 35 patients with seizure were hospitalized in the Department of Neurology after the earthquake, and 96 (32/year) patients were hospitalized before the earthquake. In patients after the earthquake, males and non-cerebrovascular diseases as an epileptogenic disease were seen more frequently than before the earthquake. During the early phase after the earthquake, female, first-attack, and non-focal-type patients were seen more frequently than during the late phase after the earthquake. These characteristics of patients with seizure during the early phase after the earthquake suggest that many patients had non-epileptic seizures. To prevent seizures following earthquakes, mental stress and physical status of evacuees must be assessed. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  19. Functional imaging of the cerebellum and basal ganglia during predictive motor timing in early Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Husárová, Ivica; Lungu, Ovidiu V; Mareček, Radek; Mikl, Michal; Gescheidt, Tomáš; Krupa, Petr; Bareš, Martin

    2014-01-01

    The basal ganglia and the cerebellum have both emerged as important structures involved in the processing of temporal information. We examined the roles of the cerebellum and striatum in predictive motor timing during a target interception task in healthy individuals (HC group; n = 21) and in patients with early Parkinson's disease (early stage PD group; n = 20) using functional magnetic resonance imaging. Despite having similar hit ratios, the PD failed more often than the HC to postpone their actions until the right moment and to adapt their behavior from one trial to the next. We found more activation in the right cerebellar lobule VI in HC than in early stage PD during successful trials. Successful trial-by-trial adjustments were associated with higher activity in the right putamen and lobule VI of the cerebellum in HC. We conclude that both the cerebellum and striatum are involved in predictive motor timing tasks. The cerebellar activity is associated exclusively with the postponement of action until the right moment, whereas both the cerebellum and striatum are needed for successful adaptation of motor actions from one trial to the next. We found a general ''hypoactivation'' of basal ganglia and cerebellum in early stage PD relative to HC, indicating that even in early stages of the PD there could be functional perturbations in the motor system beyond striatum. Copyright © 2011 by the American Society of Neuroimaging.

  20. Oppositional behavior and longitudinal predictions of early adulthood mental health problems in chronic tic disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thériault, Marie-Claude G; Bécue, Jean-Cyprien; Lespérance, Paul; Chouinard, Sylvain; Rouleau, Guy A; Richer, Francois

    2018-03-16

    Chronic tic disorders (TD) are associated with a number of psychological problems such as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), obsessive-compulsive behavior (OCB), oppositional-defiant disorder (ODD) as well as anxious and depressive symptoms. ODD is often considered a risk factor for many psychological symptoms and recent work suggests that different ODD dimensions show independent predictions of later psychological problems. This study examined the longitudinal predictions between ODD dimensions of Irritability and Defiance and the most frequent comorbidities in TD from childhood to early adulthood. From an initial sample of 135, parent reports were obtained on 58 participants with TD using standard clinical questionnaires and semi-structured interviews. Defiance symptoms decreased from baseline to follow-up whereas Irritability symptoms were more stable over time. In multiple regressions, Irritability in childhood predicted anxiety and OCB in early adulthood while Defiance in childhood predicted ADHD and conduct disorder symptoms in early adulthood. No developmental link was found for depressive symptoms. Results indicate that ODD dimensions are developmentally linked to both internalizing and externalizing adult mental health symptoms in TD. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  1. Do child's psychosocial functioning, and parent and family characteristics predict early alcohol use? The TRAILS Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visser, Leenke; de Winter, Andrea F; Vollebergh, Wilma A M; Verhulst, Frank C; Reijneveld, Sijmen A

    2015-02-01

    Given the negative consequences of early alcohol use for health and social functioning, it is essential to detect children at risk of early drinking. The aim of this study is to determine predictors of early alcohol use that can easily be detected in Preventive Child Healthcare (PCH). We obtained data from the first two waves on 1261 Dutch adolescents who participated in TRAILS (TRacking Adolescents' Individual Lives Survey) at ages 10-14 years and from the PCH records regarding ages 4-10 years. Early adolescence alcohol use (age 10-14 years) was defined as alcohol use at least once at ages 10-12 years (wave 1) and at least once in the previous 4 weeks at ages 12-14 years (wave 2). Predictors of early alcohol use concerned parent and teacher reports at wave 1 and PCH registrations, regarding the child's psychosocial functioning, and parental and socio-demographic characteristics. A total of 17.2% of the adolescents reported early alcohol use. Predictors of early alcohol use were teacher-reported aggressive behaviour [odds ratios (OR); 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.86; 1.11-3.11], being a boy (OR 1.80, 95%-CI 1.31-2.56), being a non-immigrant (OR 2.31, 95%CI 1.05-5.09), and low and middle educational level of the father (OR 1.71, 95%CI 1.12-2.62 and OR 1.77, 95%CI 1.16-2.70, respectively), mutually adjusted. A limited set of factors was predictive for early alcohol use. Use of this set may improve the detection of early adolescence alcohol use in PCH. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

  2. 75 FR 66388 - Scientific Earthquake Studies Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-28

    ..., including the multi-hazards demonstration project and earthquake early warning prototype development. The... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR U.S. Geological Survey [USGS-GX11GG009950000] Scientific Earthquake... Public Law 106-503, the Scientific Earthquake Studies Advisory Committee (SESAC) will hold its next...

  3. 78 FR 19004 - Scientific Earthquake Studies Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-28

    ... Hazards Program. Focus topics for this meeting include induced seismicity, earthquake early warning and... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR U.S. Geological Survey [GX13GG009950000] Scientific Earthquake Studies... Law 106-503, the Scientific Earthquake Studies Advisory Committee (SESAC) will hold its next meeting...

  4. Tying the spectral ends of the M9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake sequence: High-frequency radiators and early quasi-static afterslip

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inbal, A.; Ampuero, J. P.; Avouac, J.; Lengliné, O.; Helmberger, D. V.

    2012-12-01

    The March 11, 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake was recorded by dense seismological and geodetical networks deployed in Japan, as well as by a vast number of seismic stations worldwide. These observations allow us to study the properties of the subduction interface with unprecedented accuracy and resolution. Here we examine the spectral tails of the co- and post-seismic stages using local geodetic and seismological recordings. First, we study the details of high-frequency (HF) energy radiation during the rupture by using strong-motion recordings. Second, we jointly invert 1Hz GPS, ocean-bottom GPS and aftershock data for the spatio-temporal distribution of early afterslip. In order to constrain the spatial distribution of HF radiators we model waveform envelopes recorded by Kik-net borehole accelerometers located in northeastern Japan. We compute theoretical envelopes for waves traveling in a heterogeneous scattering medium, and invert for the location and amplitude of energy radiators for frequencies ranging from 1 to 16 Hz. Because the inversion is extremely sensitive to the response of individual sites, we adopt an empirical approach and iteratively separate the source and site terms from the stacked spectra of numerous events recorded by the network. The output response functions for each site are used to stabilize the inversion. Preliminary results are consistent with far-field observations and suggest that the HF energy emitted during the M9.0 event originated at the down-dip limit of the rupture zone. We apply waveform cross-correlation to identify repeating events within the aftershock sequence, and locate them by match-filtering their waveforms with known templates. Many of these events occur on seismic asperities loaded by the surrounding creep. We jointly invert the slip histories on these fault patches and the available GPS data for the spatio-temporal distribution of afterslip during the first few hours following the mainshock. We use the Principal

  5. How learning analytics can early predict under-achieving students in a blended medical education course.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saqr, Mohammed; Fors, Uno; Tedre, Matti

    2017-07-01

    Learning analytics (LA) is an emerging discipline that aims at analyzing students' online data in order to improve the learning process and optimize learning environments. It has yet un-explored potential in the field of medical education, which can be particularly helpful in the early prediction and identification of under-achieving students. The aim of this study was to identify quantitative markers collected from students' online activities that may correlate with students' final performance and to investigate the possibility of predicting the potential risk of a student failing or dropping out of a course. This study included 133 students enrolled in a blended medical course where they were free to use the learning management system at their will. We extracted their online activity data using database queries and Moodle plugins. Data included logins, views, forums, time, formative assessment, and communications at different points of time. Five engagement indicators were also calculated which would reflect self-regulation and engagement. Students who scored below 5% over the passing mark were considered to be potentially at risk of under-achieving. At the end of the course, we were able to predict the final grade with 63.5% accuracy, and identify 53.9% of at-risk students. Using a binary logistic model improved prediction to 80.8%. Using data recorded until the mid-course, prediction accuracy was 42.3%. The most important predictors were factors reflecting engagement of the students and the consistency of using the online resources. The analysis of students' online activities in a blended medical education course by means of LA techniques can help early predict underachieving students, and can be used as an early warning sign for timely intervention.

  6. Attention bias in earthquake-exposed survivors: an event-related potential study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yan; Kong, Fanchang; Han, Li; Najam Ul Hasan, Abbasi; Chen, Hong

    2014-12-01

    The Chinese Wenchuan earthquake, which happened on the 28th of May in 2008, may leave deep invisible scars in individuals. China has a large number of children and adolescents, who tend to be most vulnerable because they are in an early stage of human development and possible post-traumatic psychological distress may have a life-long consequence. Trauma survivors without post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) have received little attention in previous studies, especially in event-related potential (ERP) studies. We compared the attention bias to threat stimuli between the earthquake-exposed group and the control group in a masked version of the dot probe task. The target probe presented at the same space location consistent with earthquake-related words was the congruent trial, while in the space location of neutral words was the incongruent trial. Thirteen earthquake-exposed middle school students without PTSD and 13 matched controls were included in this investigation. The earthquake-exposed group showed significantly faster RTs to congruent trials than to incongruent trials. The earthquake-exposed group produced significantly shorter C1 and P1 latencies and larger C1, P1 and P2 amplitudes than the control group. In particular, enhanced P1 amplitude to threat stimuli was observed in the earthquake-exposed group. These findings are in agreement with the prediction that earthquake-exposed survivors have an attention bias to threat stimuli. The traumatic event had a much greater effect on earthquake-exposed survivors even if they showed no PTSD symptoms than individuals in the controls. These results will provide neurobiological evidences for effective intervention and prevention to post-traumatic mental problems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Predicting early cognitive decline in newly-diagnosed Parkinson's patients: A practical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogue, Olivia; Fernandez, Hubert H; Floden, Darlene P

    2018-06-19

    To create a multivariable model to predict early cognitive decline among de novo patients with Parkinson's disease, using brief, inexpensive assessments that are easily incorporated into clinical flow. Data for 351 drug-naïve patients diagnosed with idiopathic Parkinson's disease were obtained from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative. Baseline demographic, disease history, motor, and non-motor features were considered as candidate predictors. Best subsets selection was used to determine the multivariable baseline symptom profile that most accurately predicted individual cognitive decline within three years. Eleven per cent of the sample experienced cognitive decline. The final logistic regression model predicting decline included five baseline variables: verbal memory retention, right-sided bradykinesia, years of education, subjective report of cognitive impairment, and REM behavior disorder. Model discrimination was good (optimism-adjusted concordance index = .749). The associated nomogram provides a tool to determine individual patient risk of meaningful cognitive change in the early stages of the disease. Through the consideration of easily-implemented or routinely-gathered assessments, we have identified a multidimensional baseline profile and created a convenient, inexpensive tool to predict cognitive decline in the earliest stages of Parkinson's disease. The use of this tool would generate prediction at the individual level, allowing clinicians to tailor medical management for each patient and identify at-risk patients for clinical trials aimed at disease modifying therapies. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  8. Early prediction of hypothyroidism following 131I treatment for Graves' disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, R.; McKillop, J.H.; Jenkins, C.; Thomson, J.A.

    1988-01-01

    The aim of this study was twofold. Firstly to assess the post treatment predictive value of various biochemical and immunological tests for early hypothyroidism after 131 I therapy of Graves' disease, and secondly to determine whether or not pretreatment with Carbimazole protects against post treatment hypothyroidism. The early changes observed in serum T 3 , T 4 , TSH, thyroid microsomal and thyroglobulin antibody levels were found to be of no predictive value. A sharp rise, around 2 months, in TRAb levels following 131 I therapy indicated that hypothyroidism was likely to occur. This rise was thought to reflect a greater degree of thyroid damage. Lower levels of thyroglobulin in patients who had become hypothyroid by 12 months after treatment would support this view. Five weeks Carbimazole pretreatment in this relatively small group of patients did not appear to protect against hypothyroidism. (orig.)

  9. Early Yield Prediction Using Image Analysis of Apple Fruit and Tree Canopy Features with Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Cheng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available (1 Background: Since early yield prediction is relevant for resource requirements of harvesting and marketing in the whole fruit industry, this paper presents a new approach of using image analysis and tree canopy features to predict early yield with artificial neural networks (ANN; (2 Methods: Two back propagation neural network (BPNN models were developed for the early period after natural fruit drop in June and the ripening period, respectively. Within the same periods, images of apple cv. “Gala” trees were captured from an orchard near Bonn, Germany. Two sample sets were developed to train and test models; each set included 150 samples from the 2009 and 2010 growing season. For each sample (each canopy image, pixels were segmented into fruit, foliage, and background using image segmentation. The four features extracted from the data set for the canopy were: total cross-sectional area of fruits, fruit number, total cross-section area of small fruits, and cross-sectional area of foliage, and were used as inputs. With the actual weighted yield per tree as a target, BPNN was employed to learn their mutual relationship as a prerequisite to develop the prediction; (3 Results: For the developed BPNN model of the early period after June drop, correlation coefficients (R2 between the estimated and the actual weighted yield, mean forecast error (MFE, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE, and root mean square error (RMSE were 0.81, −0.05, 10.7%, 2.34 kg/tree, respectively. For the model of the ripening period, these measures were 0.83, −0.03, 8.9%, 2.3 kg/tree, respectively. In 2011, the two previously developed models were used to predict apple yield. The RMSE and R2 values between the estimated and harvested apple yield were 2.6 kg/tree and 0.62 for the early period (small, green fruit and improved near harvest (red, large fruit to 2.5 kg/tree and 0.75 for a tree with ca. 18 kg yield per tree. For further method verification, the cv.

  10. Generation of earthquake signals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kjell, G.

    1994-01-01

    Seismic verification can be performed either as a full scale test on a shaker table or as numerical calculations. In both cases it is necessary to have an earthquake acceleration time history. This report describes generation of such time histories by filtering white noise. Analogue and digital filtering methods are compared. Different methods of predicting the response spectrum of a white noise signal filtered by a band-pass filter are discussed. Prediction of both the average response level and the statistical variation around this level are considered. Examples with both the IEEE 301 standard response spectrum and a ground spectrum suggested for Swedish nuclear power stations are included in the report

  11. Has growth mixture modeling improved our understanding of how early change predicts psychotherapy outcome?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koffmann, Andrew

    2017-03-02

    Early change in psychotherapy predicts outcome. Seven studies have used growth mixture modeling [GMM; Muthén, B. (2001). Second-generation structural equation modeling with a combination of categorical and continuous latent variables: New opportunities for latent class-latent growth modeling. In L. M. Collins & A. G. Sawyers (Eds.), New methods for the analysis of change (pp. 291-322). Washington, DC: American Psychological Association] to identify patient classes based on early change but have yielded conflicting results. Here, we review the earlier studies and apply GMM to a new data set. In a university-based training clinic, 251 patients were administered the Outcome Questionnaire-45 [Lambert, M. J., Hansen, N. B., Umphress, V., Lunnen, K., Okiishi, J., Burlingame, G., … Reisinger, C. W. (1996). Administration and scoring manual for the Outcome Questionnaire (OQ 45.2). Wilmington, DE: American Professional Credentialing Services] at each psychotherapy session. We used GMM to identify class structure based on change in the first six sessions and examined trajectories as predictors of outcome. The sample was best described as a single class. There was no evidence of autoregressive trends in the data. We achieved better fit to the data by permitting latent variables some degree of kurtosis, rather than to assume multivariate normality. Treatment outcome was predicted by the amount of early improvement, regardless of initial level of distress. The presence of sudden early gains or losses did not further improve outcome prediction. Early improvement is an easily computed, powerful predictor of psychotherapy outcome. The use of GMM to investigate the relationship between change and outcome is technically complex and computationally intensive. To date, it has not been particularly informative.

  12. Predictive Value of Early Skin Rash in Cetuximab-Based Therapy of Advanced Biliary Tract Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubovszky, Gábor; Budai, Barna; Ganofszky, Erna; Horváth, Zsolt; Juhos, Éva; Madaras, Balázs; Nagy, Tünde; Szabó, Eszter; Pintér, Tamás; Tóth, Erika; Nagy, Péter; Láng, István; Hitre, Erika

    2018-04-01

    Randomized trials in advanced biliary tract cancer (BTC) did not show benefit of cetuximab addition over chemotherapy. This is probably due to the lack of predictive biomarkers. The aim of this study was to explore possible predictive factors. Between 2009 and 2014, 57 patients were treated in 3-week cycles with cetuximab (250 mg/m 2 /week, loading dose: 400 mg/m 2 ), gemcitabine (1000 mg/m 2 on day 1 and 8), and capecitabine (1300 mg/m 2 /day on days 1-14). The objective response rate (ORR), progression-free (PFS) and overall survival (OS) and the adverse events (AEs) were evaluated. An exploratory analysis was performed to find possible predictive factors on clinicopathological characteristics, routine laboratory parameters and early AEs, which occurred within 2 months from the beginning of treatment. The ORR was 21%. The median PFS and OS were 34 (95% CI: 24-40) and 54 (43-67) weeks, respectively. The most frequent AEs were skin toxicities. In univariate analysis performance status, previous stent implantation, thrombocyte count at the start of therapy, early neutropenia and skin rash statistically significantly influenced the ORR, PFS and/or OS. In multivariate Cox regression analysis only normal thrombocyte count at treatment start and early acneiform rash were independent markers of longer survival. In patients showing early skin rash compared to the others the median PFS was 39 vs. 13 weeks and the median OS was 67 vs. 26 weeks, respectively. It is suggested that early skin rash can be used as a biomarker to select patients who would benefit from the treatment with cetuximab plus chemotherapy.

  13. GIS BASED SYSTEM FOR POST-EARTHQUAKE CRISIS MANAGMENT USING CELLULAR NETWORK

    OpenAIRE

    Raeesi, M.; Sadeghi-Niaraki, A.

    2013-01-01

    Earthquakes are among the most destructive natural disasters. Earthquakes happen mainly near the edges of tectonic plates, but they may happen just about anywhere. Earthquakes cannot be predicted. Quick response after disasters, like earthquake, decreases loss of life and costs. Massive earthquakes often cause structures to collapse, trapping victims under dense rubble for long periods of time. After the earthquake and destroyed some areas, several teams are sent to find the location of the d...

  14. Early Prediction and Outcome of Septic Encephalopathy in Acute Stroke Patients With Nosocomial Coma

    OpenAIRE

    Tong, Dao-Ming; Zhou, Ye-Ting; Wang, Guang-Sheng; Chen, Xiao-Dong; Yang, Tong-Hui

    2015-01-01

    Background Septic encephalopathy (SE) is the most common acute encephalopathy in ICU; however, little attention has been focused on risk of SE in the course of acute stroke. Our aim is to investigate the early prediction and outcome of SE in stroke patients with nosocomial coma (NC). Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted in an ICU of the tertiary teaching hospital in China from January 2006 to December 2009. Ninety-four acute stroke patients with NC were grouped according to with...

  15. Does Trait Emotional Intelligence Predict Unique Variance in Early Career Success Beyond IQ and Personality?

    OpenAIRE

    Haro García, José Manuel de; Castejón Costa, Juan Luis

    2014-01-01

    In order to determine the contribution of emotional intelligence (EI) to career success, in this study, we analyzed the relationship between trait EI (TEI), general mental ability (GMA), the big five personality traits, and career success indicators, in a sample of 130 graduates who were in the early stages of their careers. Results from hierarchical regression analyses indicated that TEI, and especially its dimension “repair,” has incremental validity in predicting one of the career success ...

  16. Genetic vulnerability interacts with parenting and early care education to predict increasing externalizing behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipscomb, Shannon T; Laurent, Heidemarie; Neiderhiser, Jenae M; Shaw, Daniel S; Natsuaki, Misaki N; Reiss, David; Leve, Leslie D

    2014-01-01

    The current study examined interactions among genetic influences and children's early environments on the development of externalizing behaviors from 18 months to 6 years of age. Participants included 233 families linked through adoption (birth parents and adoptive families). Genetic influences were assessed by birth parent temperamental regulation. Early environments included both family (overreactive parenting) and out-of-home factors (center-based Early Care and Education; ECE). Overreactive parenting predicted more child externalizing behaviors. Attending center-based ECE was associated with increasing externalizing behaviors only for children with genetic liability for dysregulation. Additionally, children who were at risk for externalizing behaviors due to both genetic variability and exposure to center-based ECE were more sensitive to the effects of overreactive parenting on externalizing behavior than other children.

  17. Autoregressive models as a tool to discriminate chaos from randomness in geoelectrical time series: an application to earthquake prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Serio

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available The time dynamics of geoelectrical precursory time series has been investigated and a method to discriminate chaotic behaviour in geoelectrical precursory time series is proposed. It allows us to detect low-dimensional chaos when the only information about the time series comes from the time series themselves. The short-term predictability of these time series is evaluated using two possible forecasting approaches: global autoregressive approximation and local autoregressive approximation. The first views the data as a realization of a linear stochastic process, whereas the second considers the data points as a realization of a deterministic process, supposedly non-linear. The comparison of the predictive skill of the two techniques is a test to discriminate between low-dimensional chaos and random dynamics. The analyzed time series are geoelectrical measurements recorded by an automatic station located in Tito (Southern Italy in one of the most seismic areas of the Mediterranean region. Our findings are that the global (linear approach is superior to the local one and the physical system governing the phenomena of electrical nature is characterized by a large number of degrees of freedom. Power spectra of the filtered time series follow a P(f = F-a scaling law: they exhibit the typical behaviour of a broad class of fractal stochastic processes and they are a signature of the self-organized systems.

  18. Prediction of leakage current of non-ceramic insulators in early aging period

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    El-Hag, Ayman H. [Electrical Engineering Department, American University of Sharjah, Sharjah (United Arab Emirates); Jahromi, Ali Naderian [Kinectrics Inc., Transmission and Distribution Technologies, Toronto (Canada); Sanaye-Pasand, Majid [Electrical and Computer Engineering Department, University of Tehran (Iran)

    2008-10-15

    The paper presents a neural network based prediction technique for the leakage current (LC) of non-ceramic insulators during salt-fog test. Nearly 50 distribution class silicone rubber (SIR) insulators with three different voltage classes have been tested in a salt-fog chamber, where the LC has been continuously recorded for at least 100 h. A boundary for early aging period is defined by the rate of change of the LC instead of a fixed threshold value. Consequently, the Gaussian radial basis network has been adopted to predict the level of LC at the early stage of aging of the SIR insulators and is compared with a classical network. The initial values of LC and its rate of change at 10 min intervals for the first 5 h are selected as the input to the network, and the final value of LC of the early aging period is considered as the output of the network. It is found that Gaussian radial basis function network with a random optimizing training method is an appropriate network to predict the LC with a 3.5-5.3% accuracy, if the training data and the testing data are selected from the same type of SIR insulators. (author)

  19. Early Family Relationships Predict Children’s Emotion Regulation and Defense Mechanisms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jallu Lindblom

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Early family relationships have been suggested to influence the development of children’s affect regulation, involving both emotion regulation and defense mechanisms. However, we lack research on the specific family predictors for these two forms of affect regulation, which have been conceptualized to differ in their functions and accessibility to consciousness. Accordingly, we examine how the (a quality and (b timing of family relationships during infancy predict child’s later emotion regulation and defense mechanisms. Parents (N = 703 reported autonomy and intimacy in marital and parenting relationships at the child’s ages of 2 and 12 months, and the child’s use of emotion regulation and immature and neurotic defenses at 7 to 8 years. As hypothesized, the results showed that functional early family relationships predicted children’s efficient emotion regulation, whereas dysfunctional relationships predicted reliance on defense mechanisms in middle childhood. Further, results showed a timing effect for neurotic defenses, partially confirming our hypothesis of early infancy being an especially important period for the development of defense mechanisms. The findings are discussed from the viewpoints of attachment and family dynamics, emotional self-awareness, and sense of security.

  20. Cognitive and social processes predicting partner psychological adaptation to early stage breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manne, Sharon; Ostroff, Jamie; Fox, Kevin; Grana, Generosa; Winkel, Gary

    2009-02-01

    The diagnosis and subsequent treatment for early stage breast cancer is stressful for partners. Little is known about the role of cognitive and social processes predicting the longitudinal course of partners' psychosocial adaptation. This study evaluated the role of cognitive and social processing in partner psychological adaptation to early stage breast cancer, evaluating both main and moderator effect models. Moderating effects for meaning making, acceptance, and positive reappraisal on the predictive association of searching for meaning, emotional processing, and emotional expression on partner psychological distress were examined. Partners of women diagnosed with early stage breast cancer were evaluated shortly after the ill partner's diagnosis (N=253), 9 (N=167), and 18 months (N=149) later. Partners completed measures of emotional expression, emotional processing, acceptance, meaning making, and general and cancer-specific distress at all time points. Lower satisfaction with partner support predicted greater global distress, and greater use of positive reappraisal was associated with greater distress. The predicted moderator effects for found meaning on the associations between the search for meaning and cancer-specific distress were found and similar moderating effects for positive reappraisal on the associations between emotional expression and global distress and for acceptance on the association between emotional processing and cancer-specific distress were found. Results indicate several cognitive-social processes directly predict partner distress. However, moderator effect models in which the effects of partners' processing depends upon whether these efforts result in changes in perceptions of the cancer experience may add to the understanding of partners' adaptation to cancer.

  1. Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

    2016-07-15

    Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of their high sensitivity to stress changes in the seismogenic zone. Episodic stress transfer to megathrust source faults leads to an increased probability of triggering huge earthquakes if the adjacent locked region is critically loaded. Careful and precise monitoring of slow earthquakes may provide new information on the likelihood of impending huge earthquakes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  2. Modified Mercalli intensities for some recent California earthquakes and historic San Francisco Bay Region earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakun, William H.

    1998-01-01

    Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) data for recent California earthquakes were used by Bakun and Wentworth (1997) to develop a strategy for bounding the location and moment magnitude M of earthquakes from MMI observations only. Bakun (Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., submitted) used the Bakun and Wentworth (1997) strategy to analyze 19th century and early 20th century San Francisco Bay Region earthquakes. The MMI data and site corrections used in these studies are listed in this Open-file Report. 

  3. Prediction of early summer rainfall over South China by a physical-empirical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yim, So-Young; Wang, Bin; Xing, Wen

    2014-10-01

    In early summer (May-June, MJ) the strongest rainfall belt of the northern hemisphere occurs over the East Asian (EA) subtropical front. During this period the South China (SC) rainfall reaches its annual peak and represents the maximum rainfall variability over EA. Hence we establish an SC rainfall index, which is the MJ mean precipitation averaged over 72 stations over SC (south of 28°N and east of 110°E) and represents superbly the leading empirical orthogonal function mode of MJ precipitation variability over EA. In order to predict SC rainfall, we established a physical-empirical model. Analysis of 34-year observations (1979-2012) reveals three physically consequential predictors. A plentiful SC rainfall is preceded in the previous winter by (a) a dipole sea surface temperature (SST) tendency in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, (b) a tripolar SST tendency in North Atlantic Ocean, and (c) a warming tendency in northern Asia. These precursors foreshadow enhanced Philippine Sea subtropical High and Okhotsk High in early summer, which are controlling factors for enhanced subtropical frontal rainfall. The physical empirical model built on these predictors achieves a cross-validated forecast correlation skill of 0.75 for 1979-2012. Surprisingly, this skill is substantially higher than four-dynamical models' ensemble prediction for 1979-2010 period (0.15). The results here suggest that the low prediction skill of current dynamical models is largely due to models' deficiency and the dynamical prediction has large room to improve.

  4. Early-onset Conduct Problems: Predictions from daring temperament and risk taking behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Sunhye; Lee, Steve S

    2017-12-01

    Given its considerable public health significance, identifying predictors of early expressions of conduct problems is a priority. We examined the predictive validity of daring, a key dimension of temperament, and the Balloon Analog Risk Task (BART), a laboratory-based measure of risk taking behavior, with respect to two-year change in parent, teacher-, and youth self-reported oppositional defiant disorder (ODD), conduct disorder (CD), and antisocial behavior. At baseline, 150 ethnically diverse 6- to 10-year old (M=7.8, SD=1.1; 69.3% male) youth with ( n =82) and without ( n =68) DSM-IV ADHD completed the BART whereas parents rated youth temperament (i.e., daring); parents and teachers also independently rated youth ODD and CD symptoms. Approximately 2 years later, multi-informant ratings of youth ODD, CD, and antisocial behavior were gathered from rating scales and interviews. Whereas risk taking on the BART was unrelated to conduct problems, individual differences in daring prospectively predicted multi-informant rated conduct problems, independent of baseline risk taking, conduct problems, and ADHD diagnostic status. Early differences in the propensity to show positive socio-emotional responses to risky or novel experiences uniquely predicted escalating conduct problems in childhood, even with control of other potent clinical correlates. We consider the role of temperament in the origins and development of significant conduct problems from childhood to adolescence, including possible explanatory mechanisms underlying these predictions.

  5. Countermeasures to earthquakes in nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Kazuhide

    1979-01-01

    The contribution of atomic energy to mankind is unmeasured, but the danger of radioactivity is a special thing. Therefore in the design of nuclear power plants, the safety has been regarded as important, and in Japan where earthquakes occur frequently, the countermeasures to earthquakes have been incorporated in the examination of safety naturally. The radioactive substances handled in nuclear power stations and spent fuel reprocessing plants are briefly explained. The occurrence of earthquakes cannot be predicted effectively, and the disaster due to earthquakes is apt to be remarkably large. In nuclear plants, the prevention of damage in the facilities and the maintenance of the functions are required at the time of earthquakes. Regarding the location of nuclear plants, the history of earthquakes, the possible magnitude of earthquakes, the properties of ground and the position of nuclear plants should be examined. After the place of installation has been decided, the earthquake used for design is selected, evaluating live faults and determining the standard earthquakes. As the fundamentals of aseismatic design, the classification according to importance, the earthquakes for design corresponding to the classes of importance, the combination of loads and allowable stress are explained. (Kako, I.)

  6. Does Violence in Adolescence Differentially Predict Offending Patterns in Early Adulthood?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardwell, Stephanie M; Piquero, Alex R

    2018-05-01

    Previous research is mixed on whether the commission of a violent offense in adolescence is predictive of criminal career characteristics. In the current study, we addressed the following: (a) What factors predict the commission of serious violence in mid-adolescence? and (b) Does involvement in serious violence in mid-adolescence lead to more chronic and/or more heterogeneous patterns of offending in early adulthood? Data were obtained from the Pathways to Desistance Study, a longitudinal study of serious adolescent offenders in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and Phoenix, Arizona. Prior arrests, violence exposure, and gang involvement distinguished adolescents who engaged in violence at baseline. A violent offense at baseline was not predictive of a higher frequency of rearrests but was associated with membership in the low offending trajectory. In conclusion, violent offending in adolescence might be a poor predictor of chronic and heterogeneous patterns of offending throughout the life course.

  7. Clinical symptoms predict concurrent social and global functioning in an early psychosis sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cacciotti-Saija, Cristina; Langdon, Robyn; Ward, Philip B; Hickie, Ian B; Guastella, Adam J

    2018-04-01

    Although well established in chronic schizophrenia, the key determinants of functioning remain unknown during the early phase of a psychotic disorder. The aim of this study was to comprehensively examine the social cognitive, basic neurocognitive and clinical predictors of concurrent social functioning and global functioning in an early psychosis sample. This study examined the relationship between social cognition, basic neurocognition and clinical symptoms with concurrent functioning in 51 early psychosis individuals. Assessments included a range of self-report, observational and clinician-rated measures of cognitive, symptom severity and functioning domains. Results revealed a significant association between self-reported social function and lower levels of both social interaction anxiety and negative psychotic symptoms. A significant association was also observed between lower levels of negative psychotic symptoms and observed social functioning. Lastly, results demonstrated a significant association between reduced negative psychotic symptoms and clinician-rated global functioning. Clinical domains such as negative symptoms and social interaction anxiety significantly contribute to an optimal model predicting outcome during the early phase of a psychotic disorder. These clinical features may also provide useful markers of an individual's capacity for social participation. Clinical implications include the need for early targeted intervention to address social anxiety and negative psychotic symptoms to facilitate optimum patient outcome. © 2015 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  8. A Longitudinal Study of Maternal and Child Internalizing Symptoms Predicting Early Adolescent Emotional Eating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kidwell, Katherine M; Nelson, Timothy D; Nelson, Jennifer Mize; Espy, Kimberly Andrews

    2017-05-01

    To examine maternal and child internalizing symptoms as predictors of early adolescent emotional eating in a longitudinal framework spanning three critical developmental periods (preschool, elementary school, and early adolescence). Participants were 170 children recruited at preschool age for a longitudinal study. When children were 5.25 years, their mothers completed ratings of their own internalizing symptoms. During the spring of 4th grade, children completed measures of internalizing symptoms. In early adolescence, youth completed a measure of emotional eating. Maternal and child internalizing symptoms predicted adolescent emotional eating. The results indicated that child psychopathology moderated the association between maternal psychopathology (except for maternal anxiety) and early adolescent emotional eating. There was no evidence of mediation. Pediatric psychologists are encouraged to provide early screening of, and interventions for, maternal and child internalizing symptoms to prevent children's emotional eating. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Pediatric Psychology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  9. Defeating Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, R. S.

    2012-12-01

    The 2004 M=9.2 Sumatra earthquake claimed what seemed an unfathomable 228,000 lives, although because of its size, we could at least assure ourselves that it was an extremely rare event. But in the short space of 8 years, the Sumatra quake no longer looks like an anomaly, and it is no longer even the worst disaster of the Century: 80,000 deaths in the 2005 M=7.6 Pakistan quake; 88,000 deaths in the 2008 M=7.9 Wenchuan, China quake; 316,000 deaths in the M=7.0 Haiti, quake. In each case, poor design and construction were unable to withstand the ferocity of the shaken earth. And this was compounded by inadequate rescue, medical care, and shelter. How could the toll continue to mount despite the advances in our understanding of quake risk? The world's population is flowing into megacities, and many of these migration magnets lie astride the plate boundaries. Caught between these opposing demographic and seismic forces are 50 cities of at least 3 million people threatened by large earthquakes, the targets of chance. What we know for certain is that no one will take protective measures unless they are convinced they are at risk. Furnishing that knowledge is the animating principle of the Global Earthquake Model, launched in 2009. At the very least, everyone should be able to learn what his or her risk is. At the very least, our community owes the world an estimate of that risk. So, first and foremost, GEM seeks to raise quake risk awareness. We have no illusions that maps or models raise awareness; instead, earthquakes do. But when a quake strikes, people need a credible place to go to answer the question, how vulnerable am I, and what can I do about it? The Global Earthquake Model is being built with GEM's new open source engine, OpenQuake. GEM is also assembling the global data sets without which we will never improve our understanding of where, how large, and how frequently earthquakes will strike, what impacts they will have, and how those impacts can be lessened by

  10. Thermal infrared anomalies of several strong earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Congxin; Zhang, Yuansheng; Guo, Xiao; Hui, Shaoxing; Qin, Manzhong; Zhang, Ying

    2013-01-01

    In the history of earthquake thermal infrared research, it is undeniable that before and after strong earthquakes there are significant thermal infrared anomalies which have been interpreted as preseismic precursor in earthquake prediction and forecasting. In this paper, we studied the characteristics of thermal radiation observed before and after the 8 great earthquakes with magnitude up to Ms7.0 by using the satellite infrared remote sensing information. We used new types of data and method to extract the useful anomaly information. Based on the analyses of 8 earthquakes, we got the results as follows. (1) There are significant thermal radiation anomalies before and after earthquakes for all cases. The overall performance of anomalies includes two main stages: expanding first and narrowing later. We easily extracted and identified such seismic anomalies by method of "time-frequency relative power spectrum." (2) There exist evident and different characteristic periods and magnitudes of thermal abnormal radiation for each case. (3) Thermal radiation anomalies are closely related to the geological structure. (4) Thermal radiation has obvious characteristics in abnormal duration, range, and morphology. In summary, we should be sure that earthquake thermal infrared anomalies as useful earthquake precursor can be used in earthquake prediction and forecasting.

  11. Early EEG for outcome prediction of postanoxic coma: prospective cohort study with cost-minimization analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sondag, Lotte; Ruijter, Barry J; Tjepkema-Cloostermans, Marleen C; Beishuizen, Albertus; Bosch, Frank H; van Til, Janine A; van Putten, Michel J A M; Hofmeijer, Jeannette

    2017-05-15

    We recently showed that electroencephalography (EEG) patterns within the first 24 hours robustly contribute to multimodal prediction of poor or good neurological outcome of comatose patients after cardiac arrest. Here, we confirm these results and present a cost-minimization analysis. Early prognosis contributes to communication between doctors and family, and may prevent inappropriate treatment. A prospective cohort study including 430 subsequent comatose patients after cardiac arrest was conducted at intensive care units of two teaching hospitals. Continuous EEG was started within 12 hours after cardiac arrest and continued up to 3 days. EEG patterns were visually classified as unfavorable (isoelectric, low-voltage, or burst suppression with identical bursts) or favorable (continuous patterns) at 12 and 24 hours after cardiac arrest. Outcome at 6 months was classified as good (cerebral performance category (CPC) 1 or 2) or poor (CPC 3, 4, or 5). Predictive values of EEG measures and cost-consequences from a hospital perspective were investigated, assuming EEG-based decision- making about withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment in the case of a poor predicted outcome. Poor outcome occurred in 197 patients (51% of those included in the analyses). Unfavorable EEG patterns at 24 hours predicted a poor outcome with specificity of 100% (95% CI 98-100%) and sensitivity of 29% (95% CI 22-36%). Favorable patterns at 12 hours predicted good outcome with specificity of 88% (95% CI 81-93%) and sensitivity of 51% (95% CI 42-60%). Treatment withdrawal based on an unfavorable EEG pattern at 24 hours resulted in a reduced mean ICU length of stay without increased mortality in the long term. This gave small cost reductions, depending on the timing of withdrawal. Early EEG contributes to reliable prediction of good or poor outcome of postanoxic coma and may lead to reduced length of ICU stay. In turn, this may bring small cost reductions.

  12. Early Prediction and Evaluation of Breast Cancer Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Using Quantitative DCE-MRI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alina Tudorica

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The purpose is to compare quantitative dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE magnetic resonance imaging (MRI metrics with imaging tumor size for early prediction of breast cancer response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT and evaluation of residual cancer burden (RCB. Twenty-eight patients with 29 primary breast tumors underwent DCE-MRI exams before, after one cycle of, at midpoint of, and after NACT. MRI tumor size in the longest diameter (LD was measured according to the RECIST (Response Evaluation Criteria In Solid Tumors guidelines. Pharmacokinetic analyses of DCE-MRI data were performed with the standard Tofts and Shutter-Speed models (TM and SSM. After one NACT cycle the percent changes of DCE-MRI parameters Ktrans (contrast agent plasma/interstitium transfer rate constant, ve (extravascular and extracellular volume fraction, kep (intravasation rate constant, and SSM-unique τi (mean intracellular water lifetime are good to excellent early predictors of pathologic complete response (pCR vs. non-pCR, with univariate logistic regression C statistics value in the range of 0.804 to 0.967. ve values after one cycle and at NACT midpoint are also good predictors of response, with C ranging 0.845 to 0.897. However, RECIST LD changes are poor predictors with C = 0.609 and 0.673, respectively. Post-NACT Ktrans, τi, and RECIST LD show statistically significant (P < .05 correlations with RCB. The performances of TM and SSM analyses for early prediction of response and RCB evaluation are comparable. In conclusion, quantitative DCE-MRI parameters are superior to imaging tumor size for early prediction of therapy response. Both TM and SSM analyses are effective for therapy response evaluation. However, the τi parameter derived only with SSM analysis allows the unique opportunity to potentially quantify therapy-induced changes in tumor energetic metabolism.

  13. [Circulating miR-152 helps early prediction of postoperative biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jun-Feng; Liao, Yu-Feng; Ma, Jian-Bo; Mao, Qi-Feng; Jia, Guang-Cheng; Dong, Xue-Jun

    2017-07-01

    To investigate the value of circulating miR-152 in the early prediction of postoperative biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer. Sixty-six cases of prostate cancer were included in this study, 35 with and 31 without biochemical recurrence within two years postoperatively, and another 31 healthy individuals were enrolled as normal controls. The relative expression levels of circulating miR-152 in the serum of the subjects were detected by qRT-PCR, its value in the early diagnosis of postoperative biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer was assessed by ROC curve analysis, and the correlation of its expression level with the clinicopathological parameters of the patients were analyzed. The expression of circulating miR-152 was significantly lower in the serum of the prostate cancer patients than in the normal controls (t = -5.212, P = 0.001), and so was it in the patients with than in those without postoperative biochemical recurrence (t = -5.727, P = 0.001). The ROC curve for the value of miR-152 in the early prediction of postoperative biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer showed the area under the curve (AUC) to be 0.906 (95% CI: 0.809-0.964), with a sensitivity of 91.4% and a specificity of 80.6%. The expression level of miR-152 was correlated with the Gleason score, clinical stage of prostate cancer, biochemical recurrence, and bone metastasis (P 0.05). The expression level of circulating miR-152 is significantly reduced in prostate cancer patients with biochemical recurrence after prostatectomy and could be a biomarker in the early prediction of postoperative biochemical recurrence of the malignancy.

  14. Prediction of Maternal Cytomegalovirus Serostatus in Early Pregnancy: A Retrospective Analysis in Western Europe.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenz Kuessel

    Full Text Available Cytomegalovirus (CMV is the most prevalent congenital viral infection and thus places an enormous disease burden on newborn infants. Seroprevalence of maternal antibodies to CMV due to CMV exposure prior to pregnancy is currently the most important protective factor against congenital CMV disease. The aim of this study was to identify potential predictors, and to develop and evaluate a risk-predicting model for the maternal CMV serostatus in early pregnancy.Maternal and paternal background information, as well as maternal CMV serostatus in early pregnancy from 882 pregnant women were analyzed. Women were divided into two groups based on their CMV serostatus, and were compared using univariate analysis. To predict serostatus based on epidemiological baseline characteristics, a multiple logistic regression model was calculated using stepwise model selection. Sensitivity and specificity were analyzed using ROC curves. A nomogram based on the model was developed.646 women were CMV seropositive (73.2%, and 236 were seronegative (26.8%. The groups differed significantly with respect to maternal age (p = 0.006, gravidity (p<0.001, parity (p<0.001, use of assisted reproduction techniques (p = 0.018, maternal and paternal migration background (p<0.001, and maternal and paternal education level (p<0.001. ROC evaluation of the selected prediction model revealed an area under the curve of 0.83 (95%CI: 0.8-0.86, yielding sensitivity and specificity values of 0.69 and 0.86, respectively.We identified predictors of maternal CMV serostatus in early pregnancy and developed a risk-predicting model based on baseline epidemiological characteristics. Our findings provide easy accessible information that can influence the counseling of pregnant woman in terms of their CMV-associated risk.

  15. Global earthquake fatalities and population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holzer, Thomas L.; Savage, James C.

    2013-01-01

    Modern global earthquake fatalities can be separated into two components: (1) fatalities from an approximately constant annual background rate that is independent of world population growth and (2) fatalities caused by earthquakes with large human death tolls, the frequency of which is dependent on world population. Earthquakes with death tolls greater than 100,000 (and 50,000) have increased with world population and obey a nonstationary Poisson distribution with rate proportional to population. We predict that the number of earthquakes with death tolls greater than 100,000 (50,000) will increase in the 21st century to 8.7±3.3 (20.5±4.3) from 4 (7) observed in the 20th century if world population reaches 10.1 billion in 2100. Combining fatalities caused by the background rate with fatalities caused by catastrophic earthquakes (>100,000 fatalities) indicates global fatalities in the 21st century will be 2.57±0.64 million if the average post-1900 death toll for catastrophic earthquakes (193,000) is assumed.

  16. Small discussion of electromagnetic wave anomalies preceding earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1980-01-01

    Six brief pieces on various aspects of electromagnetic wave anomalies are presented. They cover: earthquake electromagnetic emanations; the use of magnetic induction information for earthquake forecasting; electromagnetic pulse emissions as pre-earthquake indicators; the use of magnetic sensors to determine medium-wavelength field strength for earthquake prediction purposes; magnetic deviation indicators inside reinforced-concrete buildings; and a discussion of the general physical principles involved.

  17. Why do early mathematics skills predict later reading? The role of mathematical language.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purpura, David J; Logan, Jessica A R; Hassinger-Das, Brenna; Napoli, Amy R

    2017-09-01

    A growing body of evidence indicates that the development of mathematics and literacy skills is highly related. The importance of literacy skills-specifically language-for mathematics development has been well rationalized. However, despite several prominent studies indicating that mathematics skills are highly predictive of literacy development, the reason for this relation is not well understood. The purpose of this study was to identify how and why early mathematics is predictive of early literacy development. Participants included 125 preschool children 3-5 years old (M = 4 years 3 months). Participants were assessed on mathematics, literacy, and cognitive measures in both the fall and spring of their preschool year. Mediation analyses indicated that the relation between early mathematics and literacy skills is mediated by children's mathematical language skills. These findings suggest that, in prior research identifying mathematical performance as a significant predictor of later literacy skills, mathematical performance may have acted only as a proxy measure for more complex language skills such as those assessed on a mathematical language measure. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  18. Thermo-mechanical simulations of early-age concrete cracking with durability predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Havlásek, Petr; Šmilauer, Vít; Hájková, Karolina; Baquerizo, Luis

    2017-09-01

    Concrete performance is strongly affected by mix design, thermal boundary conditions, its evolving mechanical properties, and internal/external restraints with consequences to possible cracking with impaired durability. Thermo-mechanical simulations are able to capture those relevant phenomena and boundary conditions for predicting temperature, strains, stresses or cracking in reinforced concrete structures. In this paper, we propose a weakly coupled thermo-mechanical model for early age concrete with an affinity-based hydration model for thermal part, taking into account concrete mix design, cement type and thermal boundary conditions. The mechanical part uses B3/B4 model for concrete creep and shrinkage with isotropic damage model for cracking, able to predict a crack width. All models have been implemented in an open-source OOFEM software package. Validations of thermo-mechanical simulations will be presented on several massive concrete structures, showing excellent temperature predictions. Likewise, strain validation demonstrates good predictions on a restrained reinforced concrete wall and concrete beam. Durability predictions stem from induction time of reinforcement corrosion, caused by carbonation and/or chloride ingress influenced by crack width. Reinforcement corrosion in concrete struts of a bridge will serve for validation.

  19. Predicting the intrauterine fetal death of fetuses with cystic hygroma in early pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimura, Mai; Ishikawa, Hiroshi; Nagase, Hiromi; Mochizuki, Akihiko; Sekiguchi, Futoshi; Koshimizu, Naho; Itai, Toshiyuki; Odagami, Mizuha

    2018-01-11

    We investigated whether it was possible to predict the prognosis of fetuses with cystic hygroma in early pregnancy based on the degree of neck thickening. We retrospectively analyzed 57 singleton pregnancies with fetuses with cystic hygroma who were examined before the 22nd week of pregnancy. The fetuses were categorized according to the outcome, structural abnormalities at birth, and chromosomal abnormalities. Here, we proposed a new sonographic predictor with which we assessed neck thickening by dividing the width of the neck thickening by the biparietal diameter, which is expressed as the cystic hygroma width/biparietal diameter ratio. The median cystic hygroma width/biparietal diameter ratio in the intrauterine fetal death group (0.51) was significantly higher than that in the live birth group (0.27). No significant difference in the median cystic hygroma width/biparietal diameter ratio was found between the structural abnormalities group at birth and the no structural abnormalities group, and no significant difference in the median cystic hygroma width/biparietal diameter ratio was found between the chromosomal abnormality group and the no chromosomal abnormality group. We used receiver operating characteristic analysis to evaluate the cystic hygroma width/biparietal diameter ratio to predict intrauterine fetal death. When the cystic hygroma width/biparietal diameter ratio cut-off value was 0.5, intrauterine fetal death could be predicted with a sensitivity of 52.9% and a specificity of 100%. It is possible to predict intrauterine fetal death in fetuses with cystic hygroma in early pregnancy if cystic hygroma width/biparietal diameter ratio is measured. However, even if cystic hygroma width/biparietal diameter ratio is measured, predicting the presence or absence of a structural abnormality at birth or a chromosomal abnormality is difficult. © 2018 Japanese Teratology Society.

  20. Text mining approach to predict hospital admissions using early medical records from the emergency department.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucini, Filipe R; S Fogliatto, Flavio; C da Silveira, Giovani J; L Neyeloff, Jeruza; Anzanello, Michel J; de S Kuchenbecker, Ricardo; D Schaan, Beatriz

    2017-04-01

    Emergency department (ED) overcrowding is a serious issue for hospitals. Early information on short-term inward bed demand from patients receiving care at the ED may reduce the overcrowding problem, and optimize the use of hospital resources. In this study, we use text mining methods to process data from early ED patient records using the SOAP framework, and predict future hospitalizations and discharges. We try different approaches for pre-processing of text records and to predict hospitalization. Sets-of-words are obtained via binary representation, term frequency, and term frequency-inverse document frequency. Unigrams, bigrams and trigrams are tested for feature formation. Feature selection is based on χ 2 and F-score metrics. In the prediction module, eight text mining methods are tested: Decision Tree, Random Forest, Extremely Randomized Tree, AdaBoost, Logistic Regression, Multinomial Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machine (Kernel linear) and Nu-Support Vector Machine (Kernel linear). Prediction performance is evaluated by F1-scores. Precision and Recall values are also informed for all text mining methods tested. Nu-Support Vector Machine was the text mining method with the best overall performance. Its average F1-score in predicting hospitalization was 77.70%, with a standard deviation (SD) of 0.66%. The method could be used to manage daily routines in EDs such as capacity planning and resource allocation. Text mining could provide valuable information and facilitate decision-making by inward bed management teams. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Chance findings about early holocene tidal marshes of Grays Harbor, Washington, in relation to rapidly rising seas and great subduction earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phipps, James B.; Hemphill-Haley, Eileen; Atwater, Brian F.

    2015-06-18

    Tidal marshes commonly build upward apace with gradual rise in the level of the sea. It is expected, however, that few tidal marshes will keep up with accelerated sea-level rise later in this century. Tidal marshes have been drowned, moreover, after subsiding during earthquakes.

  2. Gait Rather Than Cognition Predicts Decline in Specific Cognitive Domains in Early Parkinson's Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Rosie; Lord, Sue; Lawson, Rachael A; Coleman, Shirley; Galna, Brook; Duncan, Gordon W; Khoo, Tien K; Yarnall, Alison J; Burn, David J; Rochester, Lynn

    2017-11-09

    Dementia is significant in Parkinson's disease (PD) with personal and socioeconomic impact. Early identification of risk is of upmost importance to optimize management. Gait precedes and predicts cognitive decline and dementia in older adults. We aimed to evaluate gait characteristics as predictors of cognitive decline in newly diagnosed PD. One hundred and nineteen participants recruited at diagnosis were assessed at baseline, 18 and 36 months. Baseline gait was characterized by variables that mapped to five domains: pace, rhythm, variability, asymmetry, and postural control. Cognitive assessment included attention, fluctuating attention, executive function, visual memory, and visuospatial function. Mixed-effects models tested independent gait predictors of cognitive decline. Gait characteristics of pace, variability, and postural control predicted decline in fluctuating attention and visual memory, whereas baseline neuropsychological assessment performance did not predict decline. This provides novel evidence for gait as a clinical biomarker for PD cognitive decline in early disease. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America.

  3. Early post-stroke cognition in stroke rehabilitation patients predicts functional outcome at 13 months.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagle, Jørgen; Farner, Lasse; Flekkøy, Kjell; Bruun Wyller, Torgeir; Sandvik, Leiv; Fure, Brynjar; Stensrød, Brynhild; Engedal, Knut

    2011-01-01

    To identify prognostic factors associated with functional outcome at 13 months in a sample of stroke rehabilitation patients. Specifically, we hypothesized that cognitive functioning early after stroke would predict long-term functional outcome independently of other factors. 163 stroke rehabilitation patients underwent a structured neuropsychological examination 2-3 weeks after hospital admittance, and their functional status was subsequently evaluated 13 months later with the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) as outcome measure. Three predictive models were built using linear regression analyses: a biological model (sociodemographics, apolipoprotein E genotype, prestroke vascular factors, lesion characteristics and neurological stroke-related impairment); a functional model (pre- and early post-stroke cognitive functioning, personal and instrumental activities of daily living, ADL, and depressive symptoms), and a combined model (including significant variables, with p value Stroke Scale; β = 0.402, p stroke cognitive functioning (Repeatable Battery of Neuropsychological Status, RBANS; β = -0.248, p = 0.001) and prestroke personal ADL (Barthel Index; β = -0.217, p = 0.002). Further linear regression analyses of which RBANS indexes and subtests best predicted long-term functional outcome showed that Coding (β = -0.484, p stroke cognitive functioning as measured by the RBANS is a significant and independent predictor of long-term functional post-stroke outcome. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  4. Sensory hypersensitivity predicts enhanced attention capture by faces in the early development of ASD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.J.H Jones

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Sensory sensitivity is prevalent among young children with ASD, but its relation to social communication impairment is unclear. Recently, increased sensory hypersensitivity has been linked to greater activity of the neural salience network (Green et al., 2016. Increased neural sensitivity to stimuli, especially social stimuli, could provide greater opportunity for social learning and improved outcomes. Consistent with this framework, in Experiment 1 we found that parent report of greater sensory hypersensitivity at 2 years in toddlers with ASD (N = 27 was predictive of increased neural responsiveness to social stimuli (larger amplitude event-related potential/ERP responses to faces at P1, P400 and Nc at 4 years, and this in turn was related to parent report of increased social approach at 4 years. In Experiment 2, parent report of increased perceptual sensitivity at 6 months in infants at low and high familial risk for ASD (N = 35 predicted larger ERP P1 amplitude to faces at 18 months. Increased sensory hypersensitivity in early development thus predicted greater attention capture by faces in later development, and this related to more optimal social behavioral development. Sensory hypersensitivity may index a child's ability to benefit from supportive environments during development. Early sensory symptoms may not always be developmentally problematic for individuals with ASD. Keywords: Autism, Sensory hypersensitivity, Social attention, Salience network, Infant, EEG

  5. A Proteomic Approach Identifies Candidate Early Biomarkers to Predict Severe Dengue in Children.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dang My Nhi

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Severe dengue with severe plasma leakage (SD-SPL is the most frequent of dengue severe form. Plasma biomarkers for early predictive diagnosis of SD-SPL are required in the primary clinics for the prevention of dengue death.Among 63 confirmed dengue pediatric patients recruited, hospital based longitudinal study detected six SD-SPL and ten dengue with warning sign (DWS. To identify the specific proteins increased or decreased in the SD-SPL plasma obtained 6-48 hours before the shock compared with the DWS, the isobaric tags for relative and absolute quantification (iTRAQ technology was performed using four patients each group. Validation was undertaken in 6 SD-SPL and 10 DWS patients.Nineteen plasma proteins exhibited significantly different relative concentrations (p<0.05, with five over-expressed and fourteen under-expressed in SD-SPL compared with DWS. The individual protein was classified to either blood coagulation, vascular regulation, cellular transport-related processes or immune response. The immunoblot quantification showed angiotensinogen and antithrombin III significantly increased in SD-SPL whole plasma of early stage compared with DWS subjects. Even using this small number of samples, antithrombin III predicted SD-SPL before shock occurrence with accuracy.Proteins identified here may serve as candidate predictive markers to diagnose SD-SPL for timely clinical management. Since the number of subjects are small, so further studies are needed to confirm all these biomarkers.

  6. Functionality of empirical model-based predictive analytics for the early detection of hemodynamic instabilty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Summers, Richard L; Pipke, Matt; Wegerich, Stephan; Conkright, Gary; Isom, Kristen C

    2014-01-01

    Background. Monitoring cardiovascular hemodynamics in the modern clinical setting is a major challenge. Increasing amounts of physiologic data must be analyzed and interpreted in the context of the individual patient’s pathology and inherent biologic variability. Certain data-driven analytical methods are currently being explored for smart monitoring of data streams from patients as a first tier automated detection system for clinical deterioration. As a prelude to human clinical trials, an empirical multivariate machine learning method called Similarity-Based Modeling (“SBM”), was tested in an In Silico experiment using data generated with the aid of a detailed computer simulator of human physiology (Quantitative Circulatory Physiology or “QCP”) which contains complex control systems with realistic integrated feedback loops. Methods. SBM is a kernel-based, multivariate machine learning method that that uses monitored clinical information to generate an empirical model of a patient’s physiologic state. This platform allows for the use of predictive analytic techniques to identify early changes in a patient’s condition that are indicative of a state of deterioration or instability. The integrity of the technique was tested through an In Silico experiment using QCP in which the output of computer simulations of a slowly evolving cardiac tamponade resulted in progressive state of cardiovascular decompensation. Simulator outputs for the variables under consideration were generated at a 2-min data rate (0.083Hz) with the tamponade introduced at a point 420 minutes into the simulation sequence. The functionality of the SBM predictive analytics methodology to identify clinical deterioration was compared to the thresholds used by conventional monitoring methods. Results. The SBM modeling method was found to closely track the normal physiologic variation as simulated by QCP. With the slow development of the tamponade, the SBM model are seen to disagree while the

  7. A Prediction Method of Tensile Young's Modulus of Concrete at Early Age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isamu Yoshitake

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge of the tensile Young's modulus of concrete at early ages is important for estimating the risk of cracking due to restrained shrinkage and thermal contraction. However, most often, the tensile modulus is considered equal to the compressive modulus and is estimated empirically based on the measurements of compressive strength. To evaluate the validity of this approach, the tensile Young's moduli of 6 concrete and mortar mixtures are measured using a direct tension test. The results show that the tensile moduli are approximately 1.0–1.3-times larger than the compressive moduli within the material's first week of age. To enable a direct estimation of the tensile modulus of concrete, a simple three-phase composite model is developed based on random distributions of coarse aggregate, mortar, and air void phases. The model predictions show good agreement with experimental measurements of tensile modulus at early age.

  8. Earthquake Triggering in the September 2017 Mexican Earthquake Sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fielding, E. J.; Gombert, B.; Duputel, Z.; Huang, M. H.; Liang, C.; Bekaert, D. P.; Moore, A. W.; Liu, Z.; Ampuero, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Southern Mexico was struck by four earthquakes with Mw > 6 and numerous smaller earthquakes in September 2017, starting with the 8 September Mw 8.2 Tehuantepec earthquake beneath the Gulf of Tehuantepec offshore Chiapas and Oaxaca. We study whether this M8.2 earthquake triggered the three subsequent large M>6 quakes in southern Mexico to improve understanding of earthquake interactions and time-dependent risk. All four large earthquakes were extensional despite the the subduction of the Cocos plate. The traditional definition of aftershocks: likely an aftershock if it occurs within two rupture lengths of the main shock soon afterwards. Two Mw 6.1 earthquakes, one half an hour after the M8.2 beneath the Tehuantepec gulf and one on 23 September near Ixtepec in Oaxaca, both fit as traditional aftershocks, within 200 km of the main rupture. The 19 September Mw 7.1 Puebla earthquake was 600 km away from the M8.2 shock, outside the standard aftershock zone. Geodetic measurements from interferometric analysis of synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and time-series analysis of GPS station data constrain finite fault total slip models for the M8.2, M7.1, and M6.1 Ixtepec earthquakes. The early M6.1 aftershock was too close in time and space to the M8.2 to measure with InSAR or GPS. We analyzed InSAR data from Copernicus Sentinel-1A and -1B satellites and JAXA ALOS-2 satellite. Our preliminary geodetic slip model for the M8.2 quake shows significant slip extended > 150 km NW from the hypocenter, longer than slip in the v1 finite-fault model (FFM) from teleseismic waveforms posted by G. Hayes at USGS NEIC. Our slip model for the M7.1 earthquake is similar to the v2 NEIC FFM. Interferograms for the M6.1 Ixtepec quake confirm the shallow depth in the upper-plate crust and show centroid is about 30 km SW of the NEIC epicenter, a significant NEIC location bias, but consistent with cluster relocations (E. Bergman, pers. comm.) and with Mexican SSN location. Coulomb static stress

  9. Radiotherapy on the neck nodes predicts severe weight loss in patients with early stage laryngeal cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Langius, Jacqueline A.E.; Doornaert, Patricia; Spreeuwenberg, Marieke D.; Langendijk, Johannes A.; Leemans, C. Rene; Schueren, Marian A.E. van Bokhorst-de van der

    2010-01-01

    Background and purpose: Although patients with early stage (T1/T2) laryngeal cancer (LC) are thought to have a low incidence of malnutrition, severe weight loss is observed in a subgroup of these patients during radiotherapy (RT). The objective of this study was to evaluate weight loss and nutrition-related symptoms in patients with T1/T2 LC during RT and to select predictive factors for early identification of malnourished patients. Methods: Of all patients with T1/T2 LC, who received primary RT between 1999 and 2007, the following characteristics were recorded: sex, age, TNM classification, tumour location, radiation schedule, performance status, quality of life, weight loss, and nutrition-related symptoms. The association between baseline characteristics and malnutrition (>5% weight loss during RT) was investigated by Cox regression analysis. Results: The study population consisted of 238 patients. During RT, 44% of patients developed malnutrition. Tumour location, TNM classification, RT on the neck nodes, RT dose, nausea/vomiting, pain, swallowing, senses problems, trouble with social eating, dry mouth and the use of painkillers were all significantly associated with malnutrition. In the multivariate analysis, RTs on both the neck nodes (HR 4.16, 95% CI 2.62-6.60) and dry mouth (HR 1.72, 95% CI 1.14-2.60) remained predictive. Nevertheless, RT on the neck nodes alone resulted in the best predictive model for malnutrition scores. Conclusions: Patients with early stage laryngeal cancer are at risk of malnutrition during radiotherapy. Radiotherapy on the neck nodes is the best predictor of malnutrition during radiotherapy. Therefore, we suggest to offer nutritional counselling to all the patients who receive nodal irradiation.

  10. Screening Tool for Early Postnatal Prediction of Retinopathy of Prematurity in Preterm Newborns (STEP-ROP).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricard, Caroline A; Dammann, Christiane E L; Dammann, Olaf

    2017-01-01

    Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a disorder of the preterm newborn characterized by neurovascular disruption in the immature retina that may cause visual impairment and blindness. To develop a clinical screening tool for early postnatal prediction of ROP in preterm newborns based on risk information available within the first 48 h of postnatal life. Using data submitted to the Vermont Oxford Network (VON) between 1995 and 2015, we created logistic regression models based on infants born <28 completed weeks gestational age. We developed a model with 60% of the data and identified birth weight, gestational age, respiratory distress syndrome, non-Hispanic ethnicity, and multiple gestation as predictors of ROP. We tested the model in the remaining 40%, performed tenfold cross-validation, and tested the score in ELGAN study data. Of the 1,052 newborns in the VON database, 627 recorded an ROP status. Forty percent had no ROP, 40% had mild ROP (stages 1 and 2), and 20% had severe ROP (stages 3-5). We created a weighted score to predict any ROP based on the multivariable regression model. A cutoff score of 5 had the best sensitivity (95%, 95% CI 93-97), while maintaining a strong positive predictive value (63%, 95% CI 57-68). When applied to the ELGAN data, sensitivity was lower (72%, 95% CI 69-75), but PPV was higher (80%, 95% CI 77-83). STEP-ROP is a promising screening tool. It is easy to calculate, does not rely on extensive postnatal data collection, and can be calculated early after birth. Early ROP screening may help physicians limit patient exposure to additional risk factors, and may be useful for risk stratification in clinical trials aimed at reducing ROP. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  11. Predictive value of early near-infrared spectroscopy monitoring of patients with traumatic brain injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilkė, Alina; Bilskienė, Diana; Šaferis, Viktoras; Gedminas, Martynas; Bieliauskaitė, Dalia; Tamašauskas, Arimantas; Macas, Andrius

    2014-01-01

    Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is the leading cause of death and disability in young adults. Study aimed to define the predictive value of early near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) monitoring of TBI patients in a Lithuanian clinical setting. Data of 61 patients was analyzed. Predictive value of early NIRS monitoring, computed tomography data and regular intensive care unit (ICU) parameters was investigated. Twenty-six patients expressed clinically severe TBI; 14 patients deceased. Patients who survived expressed higher NIRS values at the periods of admission to operative room (75.4%±9.8% vs. 71.0%±20.5%; P=0.013) and 1h after admission to ICU (74.7%±1.5% vs. 61.9%±19.4%; P=0.029). The NIRS values discriminated hospital mortality groups more accurately than admission GCS score, blood sugar or hemoglobin levels. Admission INR value and NIRS value at 1h after admission to ICU were selected by discriminant analysis into the optimal set of features when classifying hospital mortality groups. Average efficiency of classification using this method was 88.9%. When rsO2 values at 1h after admission to ICU did not exceed 68.0% in the left hemisphere and 68.3% in the right hemisphere, the hazard ratio for death increased by 17.7 times (Pbrain saturation monitoring provides accurate predictive data, which can improve the allocation of scarce medical resources, set the treatment goals and alleviate the early communication with patients' relatives. Copyright © 2014 Lithuanian University of Health Sciences. Production and hosting by Elsevier Urban & Partner Sp. z o.o. All rights reserved.

  12. Early cumulative risk predicts externalizing behavior at age 10: The mediating role of adverse parenting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gach, Emily J; Ip, Ka I; Sameroff, Arnold J; Olson, Sheryl L

    2018-02-01

    Multiple environmental risk factors in early childhood predict a broad range of adverse developmental outcomes. However, most prior longitudinal research has not illuminated explanatory mechanisms. Our main goals were to examine predictive associations between cumulative ecological risk factors in early childhood and children's later externalizing problems and to determine whether these associations were explained by variations in parenting quality. Participants were 241 children (118 girls) at risk for school-age conduct problems and their parents and teachers. Children were approximately 3 years old at Time 1 (T1) and 10 years old at Time 2 (T2). Reports of contextual risk at T1 were used to develop a cumulative risk index consisting of 6 singular risk variables from 3 ecological levels: social resources (low income; social isolation), family resources (marital aggression; poor total family functioning), and maternal resources (single parent status; poor maternal mental health). At T1, parenting variables were measured (corporal punishment, warm responsiveness, maternal efficacy, and negative perceptions of child behavior). At T2, mothers, fathers, and teachers reported child externalizing problems. Johnson's relative weight analysis revealed that the cumulative risk index was a more powerful predictor of age 10 years externalizing behavior than any of the singular contextual risk variables. Adverse parenting mediated the effects of cumulative risk on later child externalizing problems. Our findings have significant implications for understanding long-term effects of multiple contextual risk factors present in early childhood and for the implementation of positive parenting interventions early on. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. The Role of Present Time Perspective in Predicting Early Adolescent Violence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruger, Daniel J; Carrothers, Jessica; Franzen, Susan P; Miller, Alison L; Reischl, Thomas M; Stoddard, Sarah A; Zimmerman, Marc A

    2018-06-01

    This study investigated the role of present and future time perspectives, and their relationships with subjective norms and beliefs regarding violence, in predicting violent behaviors among urban middle school students in the Midwestern United States. Although present time perspective covaried with subjective norms and beliefs, each made a unique prediction of self-reported violent behaviors. Future time perspective was not a significant predictor when accounting for these relationships. In addition, present orientation moderated the relationship between subjective norms and beliefs and rates of violent behaviors; those with higher present orientations exhibited stronger associations. We replicated this pattern of results in data from new participants in a subsequent wave of the study. Interventions that explicitly address issues related to time perspective may be effective in reducing early adolescent violence.

  14. Sibling conflict in middle childhood predicts children's adjustment in early adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stocker, Clare M; Burwell, Rebecca A; Briggs, Megan L

    2002-03-01

    Associations between sibling conflict in middle childhood and psychological adjustment in early adolescence were studied in a sample of 80 boys and 56 girls. Parents and children provided self-report data about family relationships and children's adjustment. Parents' hostility to children was assessed from videotaped interactions. Results showed that sibling conflict at Time 1 predicted increases in children's anxiety, depressed mood, and delinquent behavior 2 years later. Moreover, earlier sibling conflict at Time 1 accounted for unique variance in young adolescents' Time 2 anxiety, depressed mood, and delinquent behavior above and beyond the variance explained by earlier maternal hostility and marital conflict. Children's adjustment at Time 1 did not predict sibling conflict at Time 2. Results highlight the unique significance of the earlier sibling relationship for young adolescents' psychological adjustment.

  15. Prediction of remission in Graves' disease after thionamide therapy by technetium-99m early uptake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Misaki, Takashi; Dokoh, Shigeharu; Koh, Toshikiyo; Shimbo, Shin-ichiro; Hidaka, Akinari; Iida, Yasuhiro; Kasagi, Kanji; Konishi, Junji.

    1991-01-01

    In the clinical management of Graves' thyrotoxicosis, one of the most important subject is when to stop antithyroid drugs after achieving an euthyroid state. T 3 suppression test and other methods have been used to forecast the outcome after drug cessation, but the results were not always satisfactory. We have attempted to predict remission of Graves' disease by single measurement of early technetium uptake without administration of triiodothyronine. Drugs were discontinued in the seventy-five patients with Graves' disease on maintenance doses of either methimazole or propylthiouracil who showed normalized uptake (4.0% or less). Of 64 patients evaluable after twelve months, 55 (86%) remained euthyroid, 8 relapsed, and 1 became hypothyoid. With its accuracy in prediction of short-term remission comparable or superior to T 3 suppression test, this rapid and simple method seemed suitable for routine use in clinical practice. (author)

  16. Development of ANN Model for Wind Speed Prediction as a Support for Early Warning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Marović

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The impact of natural disasters increases every year with more casualties and damage to property and the environment. Therefore, it is important to prevent consequences by implementation of the early warning system (EWS in order to announce the possibility of the harmful phenomena occurrence. In this paper, focus is placed on the implementation of the EWS on the micro location in order to announce possible harmful phenomena occurrence caused by wind. In order to predict such phenomena (wind speed, an artificial neural network (ANN prediction model is developed. The model is developed on the basis of the input data obtained by local meteorological station on the University of Rijeka campus area in the Republic of Croatia. The prediction model is validated and evaluated by visual and common calculation approaches, after which it was found that it is possible to perform very good wind speed prediction for time steps Δt=1 h, Δt=3 h, and Δt=8 h. The developed model is implemented in the EWS as a decision support for improvement of the existing “procedure plan in a case of the emergency caused by stormy wind or hurricane, snow and occurrence of the ice on the University of Rijeka campus.”

  17. Prediction of early race starts in Norwegian-Swedish Coldblooded Trotters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ihler Carl F

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Less than a third of Norwegian-Swedish Coldblooded Trotters (NSCTs have started racing as three year olds since the year 2000 despite the fact that large sums are paid out as price-money in the three year season. Recruitment races are arranged by the Norwegian Trotting Association (NTA to stimulate early training. The management of young horses varies considerably and a large majority is reared by amateurs. The aim of the present study was to identify predictors of early race starts in young NSCT horses under field conditions. Methods Of the 801 registered NSCT horses born in 2005, 144 were randomly selected by stratified sampling with gender and paternal progeny as stratification factors. All horses were examined clinically. Further data were collected from NTA and by interviews of breeders, owners and trainers. The set of dependent variables consisted of "passed recruitment race", "start in regular race by the end of the three year season" and "start in regular race by the end of October in the four year season". Univariate and logistic regression analyses were performed. Results Genetic performance potential, as indicated by best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP indices, was the major predictor of the three dependent variables despite large variation in management. Dam's index was a better predictor than sire's index. However, the probability of early race starts in a horse with a low genetic performance potential can be increased by a favourable management. Examples of advantageous management factors in the present study were a flat pasture the first summer and early training. Nearly all horses racing in the three or four year seasons had passed a recruitment race in the two year season. Conclusions The results confirm the value of the published BLUP index as an important tool for the NSCT breeding program. Recruitment races stimulate early training.

  18. Predicting changes in cardiac myocyte contractility during early drug discovery with in vitro assays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morton, M.J., E-mail: michael.morton@astrazeneca.com [Discovery Sciences, AstraZeneca, Macclesfield, Cheshire SK10 4TG (United Kingdom); Armstrong, D.; Abi Gerges, N. [Drug Safety and Metabolism, AstraZeneca, Macclesfield, Cheshire SK10 4TG (United Kingdom); Bridgland-Taylor, M. [Discovery Sciences, AstraZeneca, Macclesfield, Cheshire SK10 4TG (United Kingdom); Pollard, C.E.; Bowes, J.; Valentin, J.-P. [Drug Safety and Metabolism, AstraZeneca, Macclesfield, Cheshire SK10 4TG (United Kingdom)

    2014-09-01

    Cardiovascular-related adverse drug effects are a major concern for the pharmaceutical industry. Activity of an investigational drug at the L-type calcium channel could manifest in a number of ways, including changes in cardiac contractility. The aim of this study was to define which of the two assay technologies – radioligand-binding or automated electrophysiology – was most predictive of contractility effects in an in vitro myocyte contractility assay. The activity of reference and proprietary compounds at the L-type calcium channel was measured by radioligand-binding assays, conventional patch-clamp, automated electrophysiology, and by measurement of contractility in canine isolated cardiac myocytes. Activity in the radioligand-binding assay at the L-type Ca channel phenylalkylamine binding site was most predictive of an inotropic effect in the canine cardiac myocyte assay. The sensitivity was 73%, specificity 83% and predictivity 78%. The radioligand-binding assay may be run at a single test concentration and potency estimated. The least predictive assay was automated electrophysiology which showed a significant bias when compared with other assay formats. Given the importance of the L-type calcium channel, not just in cardiac function, but also in other organ systems, a screening strategy emerges whereby single concentration ligand-binding can be performed early in the discovery process with sufficient predictivity, throughput and turnaround time to influence chemical design and address a significant safety-related liability, at relatively low cost. - Highlights: • The L-type calcium channel is a significant safety liability during drug discovery. • Radioligand-binding to the L-type calcium channel can be measured in vitro. • The assay can be run at a single test concentration as part of a screening cascade. • This measurement is highly predictive of changes in cardiac myocyte contractility.

  19. Predicting changes in cardiac myocyte contractility during early drug discovery with in vitro assays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morton, M.J.; Armstrong, D.; Abi Gerges, N.; Bridgland-Taylor, M.; Pollard, C.E.; Bowes, J.; Valentin, J.-P.

    2014-01-01

    Cardiovascular-related adverse drug effects are a major concern for the pharmaceutical industry. Activity of an investigational drug at the L-type calcium channel could manifest in a number of ways, including changes in cardiac contractility. The aim of this study was to define which of the two assay technologies – radioligand-binding or automated electrophysiology – was most predictive of contractility effects in an in vitro myocyte contractility assay. The activity of reference and proprietary compounds at the L-type calcium channel was measured by radioligand-binding assays, conventional patch-clamp, automated electrophysiology, and by measurement of contractility in canine isolated cardiac myocytes. Activity in the radioligand-binding assay at the L-type Ca channel phenylalkylamine binding site was most predictive of an inotropic effect in the canine cardiac myocyte assay. The sensitivity was 73%, specificity 83% and predictivity 78%. The radioligand-binding assay may be run at a single test concentration and potency estimated. The least predictive assay was automated electrophysiology which showed a significant bias when compared with other assay formats. Given the importance of the L-type calcium channel, not just in cardiac function, but also in other organ systems, a screening strategy emerges whereby single concentration ligand-binding can be performed early in the discovery process with sufficient predictivity, throughput and turnaround time to influence chemical design and address a significant safety-related liability, at relatively low cost. - Highlights: • The L-type calcium channel is a significant safety liability during drug discovery. • Radioligand-binding to the L-type calcium channel can be measured in vitro. • The assay can be run at a single test concentration as part of a screening cascade. • This measurement is highly predictive of changes in cardiac myocyte contractility

  20. Unusual Childhood Waking as a Possible Precursor of the 1995 Kobe Earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neil E. Whitehead

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Nearly 1,100 young students living in Japan at a range of distances up to 500 km from the 1995 Kobe M7 earthquake were interviewed. A statistically significant abnormal rate of early wakening before the earthquake was found, having exponential decrease with distance and a half value approaching 100 km, but decreasing much slower than from a point source such as an epicentre; instead originating from an extended area of more than 100 km in diameter. Because an improbably high amount of variance is explained, this effect is unlikely to be simply psychological and must reflect another mechanism—perhaps Ultra-Low Frequency (ULF electromagnetic waves creating anxiety—but probably not 222Rn excess. Other work reviewed suggests these conclusions may be valid for animals in general, not just children, but would be very difficult to apply for practical earthquake prediction.

  1. Pretreatment anti-Müllerian hormone predicts for loss of ovarian function after chemotherapy for early breast cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anderson, Richard A; Rosendahl, Mikkel; Kelsey, Thomas W

    2013-01-01

    Improving survival for women with early breast cancer (eBC) requires greater attention to the consequences of treatment, including risk to ovarian function. We have assessed whether biochemical markers of the ovarian reserve might improve prediction of chemotherapy related amenorrhoea.......Improving survival for women with early breast cancer (eBC) requires greater attention to the consequences of treatment, including risk to ovarian function. We have assessed whether biochemical markers of the ovarian reserve might improve prediction of chemotherapy related amenorrhoea....

  2. Earthquake likelihood model testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schorlemmer, D.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Wiemer, S.; Jackson, D.D.; Rhoades, D.A.

    2007-01-01

    INTRODUCTIONThe Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) project aims to produce and evaluate alternate models of earthquake potential (probability per unit volume, magnitude, and time) for California. Based on differing assumptions, these models are produced to test the validity of their assumptions and to explore which models should be incorporated in seismic hazard and risk evaluation. Tests based on physical and geological criteria are useful but we focus on statistical methods using future earthquake catalog data only. We envision two evaluations: a test of consistency with observed data and a comparison of all pairs of models for relative consistency. Both tests are based on the likelihood method, and both are fully prospective (i.e., the models are not adjusted to fit the test data). To be tested, each model must assign a probability to any possible event within a specified region of space, time, and magnitude. For our tests the models must use a common format: earthquake rates in specified “bins” with location, magnitude, time, and focal mechanism limits.Seismology cannot yet deterministically predict individual earthquakes; however, it should seek the best possible models for forecasting earthquake occurrence. This paper describes the statistical rules of an experiment to examine and test earthquake forecasts. The primary purposes of the tests described below are to evaluate physical models for earthquakes, assure that source models used in seismic hazard and risk studies are consistent with earthquake data, and provide quantitative measures by which models can be assigned weights in a consensus model or be judged as suitable for particular regions.In this paper we develop a statistical method for testing earthquake likelihood models. A companion paper (Schorlemmer and Gerstenberger 2007, this issue) discusses the actual implementation of these tests in the framework of the RELM initiative.Statistical testing of hypotheses is a common task and a

  3. Vrancea earthquakes. Courses for specific actions to mitigate seismic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Marmureanu, Alexandru

    2005-01-01

    Earthquakes in the Carpathian-Pannonian region are confined to the crust, except the Vrancea zone, where earthquakes with focal depth down to 200 Km occur. For example, the ruptured area migrated from 150 km to 180 km (November 10,1940, M w = 7.7) from 90 km to 110 km (March 4, 1977, M w 7.4), from 130 km to 150 km (August 30, 1986, M w = 7.1) and from 70 km to 90 km (May 30, 1990, M w = 6.9) depth. The depth interval between 110 km and 130 km remains not ruptured since 1802, October 26, when it was the strongest earthquake occurred in this part of Central Europe. The magnitude is assumed to be M w = 7.9 - 8.0 and this depth interval is a natural candidate for the next strong Vrancea event. While no country in the world is entirely safe, the lack of capacity to limit the impact of seismic hazards remains a major burden for all countries and while the world has witnessed an exponential increase in human and material losses due to natural disasters given by earthquakes, there is a need to reverse trends in seismic risk mitigation to future events. Main courses for specific actions to mitigate the seismic risk given by strong deep Vrancea earthquakes should be considered as key for development actions: - Early warning system for industrial facilities. Early warning is more than a technological instrument to detect, monitor and submit warnings. It should become part of a management information system for decision-making in the context of national institutional frameworks for disaster management and part of national and local strategies and programmers for risk mitigation; - Prediction program of Vrancea strong earthquakes of short and long term; - Hazard seismic map of Romania. The wrong assessment of the seismic hazard can lead to dramatic situations as those from Bucharest or Kobe. Before the 1977 Vrancea earthquake, the city of Bucharest was designed to intensity I = VII (MMI) and the real intensity was I = IX1/2-X (MMI); - Seismic microzonation of large populated

  4. Early behavioral inhibition and increased error monitoring predict later social phobia symptoms in childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahat, Ayelet; Lamm, Connie; Chronis-Tuscano, Andrea; Pine, Daniel S; Henderson, Heather A; Fox, Nathan A

    2014-04-01

    Behavioral inhibition (BI) is an early childhood temperament characterized by fearful responses to novelty and avoidance of social interactions. During adolescence, a subset of children with stable childhood BI develop social anxiety disorder and concurrently exhibit increased error monitoring. The current study examines whether increased error monitoring in 7-year-old, behaviorally inhibited children prospectively predicts risk for symptoms of social phobia at age 9 years. A total of 291 children were characterized on BI at 24 and 36 months of age. Children were seen again at 7 years of age, when they performed a Flanker task, and event-related potential (ERP) indices of response monitoring were generated. At age 9, self- and maternal-report of social phobia symptoms were obtained. Children high in BI, compared to those low in BI, displayed increased error monitoring at age 7, as indexed by larger (i.e., more negative) error-related negativity (ERN) amplitudes. In addition, early BI was related to later childhood social phobia symptoms at age 9 among children with a large difference in amplitude between ERN and correct-response negativity (CRN) at age 7. Heightened error monitoring predicts risk for later social phobia symptoms in children with high BI. Research assessing response monitoring in children with BI may refine our understanding of the mechanisms underlying risk for later anxiety disorders and inform prevention efforts. Copyright © 2014 American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry. All rights reserved.

  5. Early biometric lag in the prediction of small for gestational age neonates and preeclampsia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Nadav; Pessel, Cara; Coletta, Jaclyn; Krieger, Abba M; Timor-Tritsch, Ilan E

    2011-01-01

    An early fetal growth lag may be a marker of future complications. We sought to determine the utility of early biometric variables in predicting adverse pregnancy outcomes. In this retrospective cohort study, the crown-rump length at 11 to 14 weeks and the head circumference, biparietal diameter, abdominal circumference, femur length, humerus length, transverse cerebellar diameter, and estimated fetal weight at 18 to 24 weeks were converted to an estimated gestational age using published regression formulas. Sonographic fetal growth (difference between each biometric gestational age and the crown-rump length gestational age) minus expected fetal growth (number of days elapsed between the two scans) yielded the biometric growth lag. These lags were tested as predictors of small for gestational age (SGA) neonates (≤10th percentile) and preeclampsia. A total of 245 patients were included. Thirty-two (13.1%) delivered an SGA neonate, and 43 (17.6%) had the composite outcome. The head circumference, biparietal diameter, abdominal circumference, and estimated fetal weight lags were identified as significant predictors of SGA neonates after adjusted analyses (P biometric lag variables and the development of preeclampsia. Routinely available biometric data can be used to improve the prediction of adverse outcomes such as SGA. These biometric lags should be considered in efforts to develop screening algorithms for adverse outcomes.

  6. Real Time Earthquake Information System in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doi, K.; Kato, T.

    2003-12-01

    An early earthquake notification system in Japan had been developed by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) as a governmental organization responsible for issuing earthquake information and tsunami forecasts. The system was primarily developed for prompt provision of a tsunami forecast to the public with locating an earthquake and estimating its magnitude as quickly as possible. Years after, a system for a prompt provision of seismic intensity information as indices of degrees of disasters caused by strong ground motion was also developed so that concerned governmental organizations can decide whether it was necessary for them to launch emergency response or not. At present, JMA issues the following kinds of information successively when a large earthquake occurs. 1) Prompt report of occurrence of a large earthquake and major seismic intensities caused by the earthquake in about two minutes after the earthquake occurrence. 2) Tsunami forecast in around three minutes. 3) Information on expected arrival times and maximum heights of tsunami waves in around five minutes. 4) Information on a hypocenter and a magnitude of the earthquake, the seismic intensity at each observation station, the times of high tides in addition to the expected tsunami arrival times in 5-7 minutes. To issue information above, JMA has established; - An advanced nationwide seismic network with about 180 stations for seismic wave observation and about 3,400 stations for instrumental seismic intensity observation including about 2,800 seismic intensity stations maintained by local governments, - Data telemetry networks via landlines and partly via a satellite communication link, - Real-time data processing techniques, for example, the automatic calculation of earthquake location and magnitude, the database driven method for quantitative tsunami estimation, and - Dissemination networks, via computer-to-computer communications and facsimile through dedicated telephone lines. JMA operationally

  7. Tiltmeter studies in earthquake prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, M.

    1978-01-01

    Our knowledge is still very limited as to the way in which the Earth's surface deforms around active faults and why it does so. By far the easiest method of providing clues to the mechanisms involved is to record the associated pattern of tilt of the Earth's surface. 

  8. Development of a Simple Clinical Risk Score for Early Prediction of Severe Dengue in Adult Patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ing-Kit Lee

    Full Text Available We aimed to develop and validate a risk score to aid in the early identification of laboratory-confirmed dengue patients at high risk of severe dengue (SD (i.e. severe plasma leakage with shock or respiratory distress, or severe bleeding or organ impairment. We retrospectively analyzed data of 1184 non-SD patients at hospital presentation and 69 SD patients before SD onset. We fit a logistic regression model using 85% of the population and converted the model coefficients to a numeric risk score. Subsequently, we validated the score using the remaining 15% of patients. Using the derivation cohort, two scoring algorithms for predicting SD were developed: models 1 (dengue illness ≤4 days and 2 (dengue illness >4 days. In model 1, we identified four variables: age ≥65 years, minor gastrointestinal bleeding, leukocytosis, and platelet count ≥100×109 cells/L. Model 1 (ranging from -2 to +6 points showed good discrimination between SD and non-SD, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC of 0.848 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.771-0.924. The optimal cutoff value for model 1 was 1 point, with a sensitivity and specificity for predicting SD of 70.3% and 90.6%, respectively. In model 2 (ranging from 0 to +3 points, significant predictors were age ≥65 years and leukocytosis. Model 2 showed an AUC of 0.859 (95% CI, 0.756-0.963, with an optimal cutoff value of 1 point (sensitivity, 80.3%; specificity, 85.8%. The median interval from hospital presentation to SD was 1 day. This finding underscores the importance of close monitoring, timely resuscitation of shock including intravenous fluid adjustment and early correction of dengue-related complications to prevent the progressive dengue severity. In the validation data, AUCs of 0.904 (95% CI, 0.825-0.983 and 0.917 (95% CI, 0.833-1.0 in models 1 and 2, respectively, were achieved. The observed SD rates (in both cohorts were 50% for those with a score of ≥2 points

  9. MicroRNAs as biomarkers for early breast cancer diagnosis, prognosis and therapy prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nassar, Farah J; Nasr, Rihab; Talhouk, Rabih

    2017-04-01

    Breast cancer is a major health problem that affects one in eight women worldwide. As such, detecting breast cancer at an early stage anticipates better disease outcome and prolonged patient survival. Extensive research has shown that microRNA (miRNA) are dysregulated at all stages of breast cancer. miRNA are a class of small noncoding RNA molecules that can modulate gene expression and are easily accessible and quantifiable. This review highlights miRNA as diagnostic, prognostic and therapy predictive biomarkers for early breast cancer with an emphasis on the latter. It also examines the challenges that lie ahead in their use as biomarkers. Noteworthy, this review addresses miRNAs reported in patients with early breast cancer prior to chemotherapy, radiotherapy, surgical procedures or distant metastasis (unless indicated otherwise). In this context, miRNA that are mentioned in this review were significantly modulated using more than one statistical test and/or validated by at least two studies. A standardized protocol for miRNA assessment is proposed starting from sample collection to data analysis that ensures comparative analysis of data and reproducibility of results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Does vitamin D deficiency predict early conversion of clinically isolated syndrome? A preliminary Egyptian study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaheen, Hala A; Sayed, Sayed S; Daker, Lamiaa I; AbdelAziz, Hossam Eldin; Taha, Mohamed A

    2018-03-15

    It has been suggested that vitamin D influences the immunoregulation and subsequently affects the risk for conversion of clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (MS). There is little information regarding the relationship between levels of vitamin D and CIS conversion to MS in Egyptian patients. It is to study contribution of vitamin D deficiency to conversion of CIS to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS) and correlation of vitamin D level to cognitive and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) results. A longitudinal prospective case control study was conducted on 43 Egyptian patients diagnosed as CIS according to McDonald criteria (2010). Clinical presentation, brain MRI and 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels were evaluated at baseline and after one-year follow-up. The CIS patients that converted to MS showed significant lower vitamin D level (p < 0.001) than the non-convertors. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the CIS patients with lower 25-hydroxyvitamin D level (p < 0.001) are at higher risk for early conversion to MS. There was a significant positive correlation between the vitamin D level and PASAT (r = 0.36, p = 0.02). It was found that there was a significant negative correlation between vitamin D level and MRI T 2 load (r = -0.38, p = 0.01). The low level of 25-hydroxyvitamin D may predict early conversion to clinically definite MS. Early vitamin D supplementation is recommended in patients with CIS.

  11. The Functional Diffusion Map: An Imaging Biomarker for the Early Prediction of Cancer Treatment Outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradford A. Moffat

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available Functional diffusion map (fDM has been recently reported as an early and quantitative biomarker of clinical brain tumor treatment outcome. This MRI approach spatially maps and quantifies treatment-induced changes in tumor water diffusion values resulting from alterations in cell density/cell membrane function and microenvironment. This current study was designed to evaluate the capability of fDM for preclinical evaluation of dose escalation studies and to determine if these changes were correlated with outcome measures (cell kill and overall survival. Serial T2-weighted and diffusion MRI were carried out on rodents with orthotopically implanted 9L brain tumors receiving three doses of 1,3-bis(2-chloroethyl-1-nitrosourea (6.65, 13.3, and 26.6 mg/kg, i.p.. All images were coregistered to baseline T2-weighted images for fDM analysis. Analysis of tumor fDM data on day 4 posttreatment detected dosedependent changes in tumor diffusion values, which were also found to be spatially dependent. Histologic analysis of treated tumors confirmed spatial changes in cellularity as observed by fDM. Early changes in tumor diffusion values were found to be highly correlative with drug dose and independent biologic outcome measures (cell kill and survival. Therefore, the fDM imaging biomarker for early prediction of treatment efficacy can be used in the drug development process.

  12. Limiting the effects of earthquakes on gravitational-wave interferometers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coughlin, Michael; Earle, Paul; Harms, Jan; Biscans, Sebastien; Buchanan, Christopher; Coughlin, Eric; Donovan, Fred; Fee, Jeremy; Gabbard, Hunter; Guy, Michelle; Mukund, Nikhil; Perry, Matthew

    2017-01-01

    Ground-based gravitational wave interferometers such as the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) are susceptible to ground shaking from high-magnitude teleseismic events, which can interrupt their operation in science mode and significantly reduce their duty cycle. It can take several hours for a detector to stabilize enough to return to its nominal state for scientific observations. The down time can be reduced if advance warning of impending shaking is received and the impact is suppressed in the isolation system with the goal of maintaining stable operation even at the expense of increased instrumental noise. Here, we describe an early warning system for modern gravitational-wave observatories. The system relies on near real-time earthquake alerts provided by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Preliminary low latency hypocenter and magnitude information is generally available in 5 to 20 min of a significant earthquake depending on its magnitude and location. The alerts are used to estimate arrival times and ground velocities at the gravitational-wave detectors. In general, 90% of the predictions for ground-motion amplitude are within a factor of 5 of measured values. The error in both arrival time and ground-motion prediction introduced by using preliminary, rather than final, hypocenter and magnitude information is minimal. By using a machine learning algorithm, we develop a prediction model that calculates the probability that a given earthquake will prevent a detector from taking data. Our initial results indicate that by using detector control configuration changes, we could prevent interruption of operation from 40 to 100 earthquake events in a 6-month time-period.

  13. Limiting the effects of earthquakes on gravitational-wave interferometers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coughlin, Michael; Earle, Paul; Harms, Jan; Biscans, Sebastien; Donovan, Fred; Buchanan, Christopher; Coughlin, Eric; Fee, Jeremy; Guy, Michelle; Gabbard, Hunter; Mukund, Nikhil; Perry, Matthew

    2017-01-01

    Ground-based gravitational wave interferometers such as the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) are susceptible to ground shaking from high-magnitude teleseismic events, which can interrupt their operation in science mode and significantly reduce their duty cycle. It can take several hours for a detector to stabilize enough to return to its nominal state for scientific observations. The down time can be reduced if advance warning of impending shaking is received and the impact is suppressed in the isolation system with the goal of maintaining stable operation even at the expense of increased instrumental noise. Here, we describe an early warning system for modern gravitational-wave observatories. The system relies on near real-time earthquake alerts provided by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Preliminary low latency hypocenter and magnitude information is generally available in 5 to 20 min of a significant earthquake depending on its magnitude and location. The alerts are used to estimate arrival times and ground velocities at the gravitational-wave detectors. In general, 90% of the predictions for ground-motion amplitude are within a factor of 5 of measured values. The error in both arrival time and ground-motion prediction introduced by using preliminary, rather than final, hypocenter and magnitude information is minimal. By using a machine learning algorithm, we develop a prediction model that calculates the probability that a given earthquake will prevent a detector from taking data. Our initial results indicate that by using detector control configuration changes, we could prevent interruption of operation from 40 to 100 earthquake events in a 6-month time-period. (paper)

  14. Early prediction of lung cancer recurrence after stereotactic radiotherapy using second order texture statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattonen, Sarah A.; Palma, David A.; Haasbeek, Cornelis J. A.; Senan, Suresh; Ward, Aaron D.

    2014-03-01

    Benign radiation-induced lung injury is a common finding following stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR) for lung cancer, and is often difficult to differentiate from a recurring tumour due to the ablative doses and highly conformal treatment with SABR. Current approaches to treatment response assessment have shown limited ability to predict recurrence within 6 months of treatment. The purpose of our study was to evaluate the accuracy of second order texture statistics for prediction of eventual recurrence based on computed tomography (CT) images acquired within 6 months of treatment, and compare with the performance of first order appearance and lesion size measures. Consolidative and ground-glass opacity (GGO) regions were manually delineated on post-SABR CT images. Automatic consolidation expansion was also investigated to act as a surrogate for GGO position. The top features for prediction of recurrence were all texture features within the GGO and included energy, entropy, correlation, inertia, and first order texture (standard deviation of density). These predicted recurrence with 2-fold cross validation (CV) accuracies of 70-77% at 2- 5 months post-SABR, with energy, entropy, and first order texture having leave-one-out CV accuracies greater than 80%. Our results also suggest that automatic expansion of the consolidation region could eliminate the need for manual delineation, and produced reproducible results when compared to manually delineated GGO. If validated on a larger data set, this could lead to a clinically useful computer-aided diagnosis system for prediction of recurrence within 6 months of SABR and allow for early salvage therapy for patients with recurrence.

  15. Discrimination of amygdala response predicts future separation anxiety in youth with early deprivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Shulamite A; Goff, Bonnie; Gee, Dylan G; Gabard-Durnam, Laurel; Flannery, Jessica; Telzer, Eva H; Humphreys, Kathryn L; Louie, Jennifer; Tottenham, Nim

    2016-10-01

    mechanism to explain the associations between early caregiving adversity and individual differences in internalizing symptomology during development, thereby contributing to individualized predictions of future clinical outcomes. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

  16. Early Subchondral Bone Loss at Arthritis Onset Predicted Late Arthritis Severity in a Rat Arthritis Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courbon, Guillaume; Cleret, Damien; Linossier, Marie-Thérèse; Vico, Laurence; Marotte, Hubert

    2017-06-01

    Synovitis is usually observed before loss of articular function in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). In addition to the synovium and according to the "Inside-Outside" theory, bone compartment is also involved in RA pathogenesis. Then, we investigated time dependent articular bone loss and prediction of early bone loss to late arthritis severity on the rat adjuvant-induced arthritis (AIA) model. Lewis female rats were longitudinally monitored from arthritis induction (day 0), with early (day 10) and late (day 17) steps. Trabecular and cortical microarchitecture parameters of four ankle bones were assessed by microcomputed tomography. Gene expression was determined at sacrifice. Arthritis occurred at day 10 in AIA rats. At this time, bone erosions were detected on four ankle bones, with cortical porosity increase (+67%) and trabecular alterations including bone volume fraction (BV/TV: -13%), and trabecular thickness decrease. Navicular bone assessment was the most reproducible and sensitive. Furthermore, strong correlations were observed between bone alterations at day 10 and arthritis severity or bone loss at day 17, including predictability of day 10 BV/TV to day 17 articular index (R 2  = 0.76). Finally, gene expression at day 17 confirmed massive osteoclast activation and interestingly provided insights on strong activation of bone formation inhibitor markers at the joint level. In rat AIA, bone loss was already observed at synovitis onset and was predicted late arthritis severity. Our results reinforced the key role of subchondral bone in arthritis pathogenesis, in favour to the "Inside-Outside" theory. Mechanisms of bone loss in rat AIA involved resorption activation and formation inhibition changes. J. Cell. Physiol. 232: 1318-1325, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Urinary aminopeptidase activities as early and predictive biomarkers of renal dysfunction in cisplatin-treated rats.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrés Quesada

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the fluorimetric determination of alanyl- (Ala, glutamyl- (Glu, leucyl-cystinyl- (Cys and aspartyl-aminopeptidase (AspAp urinary enzymatic activities as early and predictive biomarkers of renal dysfunction in cisplatin-treated rats. Male Wistar rats (n = 8 each group received a single subcutaneous injection of either saline or cisplatin 3.5 or 7 mg/kg, and urine samples were taken at 0, 1, 2, 3 and 14 days after treatment. In urine samples we determined Ala, Glu, Cys and AspAp activities, proteinuria, N-acetyl-β-D-glucosaminidase (NAG, albumin, and neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL. Plasma creatinine, creatinine clearance and renal morphological variables were measured at the end of the experiment. CysAp, NAG and albumin were increased 48 hours after treatment in the cisplatin 3.5 mg/kg treated group. At 24 hours, all urinary aminopeptidase activities and albuminuria were significantly increased in the cisplatin 7 mg/kg treated group. Aminopeptidase urinary activities correlated (p0.259 with plasma creatinine, creatinine clearance and/or kidney weight/body weight ratio at the end of the experiment and they could be considered as predictive biomarkers of renal injury severity. ROC-AUC analysis was made to study their sensitivity and specificity to distinguish between treated and untreated rats at day 1. All aminopeptidase activities showed an AUC>0.633. We conclude that Ala, Cys, Glu and AspAp enzymatic activities are early and predictive urinary biomarkers of the renal dysfunction induced by cisplatin. These determinations can be very useful in the prognostic and diagnostic of renal dysfunction in preclinical research and clinical practice.

  18. Extent of Spine Deformity Predicts Lung Growth and Function in Rabbit Model of Early Onset Scoliosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J Casey Olson

    Full Text Available Early onset deformity of the spine and chest wall (initiated <8 years of age is associated with increased morbidity at adulthood relative to adolescent onset deformity of comparable severity. Presumably, inhibition of thoracic growth during late stage alveolarization leads to an irreversible loss of pulmonary growth and thoracic function; however the natural history of this disease from onset to adulthood has not been well characterized. In this study we establish a rabbit model of early onset scoliosis to establish the extent that thoracic deformity affects structural and functional respiratory development. Using a surgical right unilateral rib-tethering procedure, rib fusion with early onset scoliosis was induced in 10 young New Zealand white rabbits (3 weeks old. Progression of spine deformity, functional residual capacity, total lung capacity, and lung mass was tracked through longitudinal breath-hold computed tomography imaging up to skeletal maturity (28 weeks old. Additionally at maturity forced vital capacity and regional specific volume were calculated as functional measurements and histo-morphometry performed with the radial alveolar count as a measure of acinar complexity. Data from tethered rib rabbits were compared to age matched healthy control rabbits (N = 8. Results show unilateral rib-tethering created a progressive spinal deformity ranging from 30° to 120° curvature, the severity of which was strongly associated with pulmonary growth and functional outcomes. At maturity rabbits with deformity greater than the median (55° had decreased body weight (89%, right (59% and left (86% lung mass, right (74% and left (69% radial alveolar count, right lung volume at total lung capacity (60%, and forced vital capacity (75%. Early treatment of spinal deformity in children may prevent pulmonary complications in adulthood and these results provide a basis for the prediction of pulmonary development from thoracic structure. This model may

  19. Urinary biomarkers TIMP-2 and IGFBP7 early predict acute kidney injury after major surgery.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Gocze

    Full Text Available To assess the ability of the urinary biomarkers IGFBP7 (insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 7 and TIMP-2 (tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 2 to early predict acute kidney injury (AKI in high-risk surgical patients.Postoperative AKI is associated with an increase in short and long-term mortality. Using IGFBP7 and TIMP-2 for early detection of cellular kidney injury, thus allowing the early initiation of renal protection measures, may represent a new concept of evaluating renal function.In this prospective study, urinary [TIMP-2]×[IGFBP7] was measured in surgical patients at high risk for AKI. A predefined cut-off value of [TIMP-2]×[IGFBP7] >0.3 was used for assessing diagnostic accuracy. Perioperative characteristics were evaluated, and ROC analyses as well as logistic regression models of risk assessment were calculated with and without a [TIMP-2]×[IGFBP7] test.107 patients were included in the study, of whom 45 (42% developed AKI. The highest median values of biomarker were detected in septic, transplant and patients after hepatic surgery (1.24 vs 0.45 vs 0.47 ng/l²/1000. The area under receiving operating characteristic curve (AUC for the risk of any AKI was 0.85, for early use of RRT 0.83 and for 28-day mortality 0.77. In a multivariable model with established perioperative risk factors, the [TIMP-2]×[IGFBP7] test was the strongest predictor of AKI and significantly improved the risk assessment (p<0.001.Urinary [TIMP-2]×[IGFBP7] test sufficiently detect patients with risk of AKI after major non-cardiac surgery. Due to its rapid responsiveness it extends the time frame for intervention to prevent development of AKI.

  20. Clinical prediction and diagnosis of neurosyphilis in HIV-infected patients with early Syphilis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumaresq, Jeannot; Langevin, Stéphanie; Gagnon, Simon; Serhir, Bouchra; Deligne, Benoît; Tremblay, Cécile; Tsang, Raymond S W; Fortin, Claude; Coutlée, François; Roger, Michel

    2013-12-01

    The diagnosis of neurosyphilis (NS) is a challenge, especially in HIV-infected patients, and the criteria for deciding when to perform a lumbar puncture (LP) in HIV-infected patients with syphilis are controversial. We retrospectively reviewed demographic, clinical, and laboratory data from 122 cases of HIV-infected patients with documented early syphilis who underwent an LP to rule out NS, and we evaluated 3 laboratory-developed validated real-time PCR assays, the Treponema pallidum particle agglutination (TPPA) assay, the fluorescent treponemal antibody absorption (FTA-ABS) assay, and the line immunoassay INNO-LIA Syphilis, for the diagnosis of NS from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples of these patients. NS was defined by a reactive CSF-VDRL test result and/or a CSF white blood cell (WBC) count of >20 cells/μl. Thirty of the 122 patients (24.6%) had early NS. Headache, visual symptoms, a CD4 cell count of FTA-ABS, TPPA, and INNO-LIA assays had sensitivities of 58%, 100%, 68%, and 100%, specificities of 67%, 12%, 49%, and 13%, and negative predictive values of 85%, 100%, 84%, and 100%, respectively. Visual disturbances, headache, uncontrolled HIV-1 viremia, and a CD4 cell count of <500 cells/μl were predictors of NS in HIV-infected patients with early syphilis, while blood serum RPR titers were not; therefore, RPR titers should not be used as the sole criterion for deciding whether to perform an LP in early syphilis. When applied to CSF samples, the INNO-LIA Syphilis assay easily helped rule out NS.

  1. Does Early Childhood Callous-Unemotional Behavior Uniquely Predict Behavior Problems or Callous-Unemotional Behavior in Late Childhood?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waller, Rebecca; Dishion, Thomas J.; Shaw, Daniel S.; Gardner, Frances; Wilson, Melvin N.; Hyde, Luke W.

    2016-01-01

    Callous-unemotional (CU) behavior has been linked to behavior problems in children and adolescents. However, few studies have examined whether CU behavior in "early childhood" predicts behavior problems or CU behavior in "late childhood". This study examined whether indicators of CU behavior at ages 2-4 predicted aggression,…

  2. The use of radon as an earthquake precursor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramola, R.C.; Singh, M.; Sandhu, A.S.; Singh, S.; Virk, H.S.

    1990-01-01

    Radon monitoring for earthquake prediction is part of an integral approach since the discovery of coherent and time anomalous radon concentrations prior to, during and after the 1966 Tashkent earthquake. In this paper some studies of groundwater and soil gas radon content in relation to earthquake activities are reviewed. Laboratory experiments and the development of groundwater and soil gas radon monitoring systems are described. In addition, radon monitoring studies conducted at the Guru